Science.gov

Sample records for adverse climate change

  1. Systematic review on adverse birth outcomes of climate change

    PubMed Central

    Poursafa, Parinaz; Keikha, Mojtaba; Kelishadi, Roya

    2015-01-01

    Background: Climate change and global warming have significant effects on human health. This systematic review presents the effects of the climate changes on pregnancy outcomes. Materials and Methods: The search process was conducted in electronic databases including ISI Web of Knowledge, PubMed, Scopus, and Google Scholar using key words of “environmental temperature” “pregnancy” “low birth weight (LBW)” “pregnancy outcome,” “climate change,” “preterm birth (PTB),” and a combination of them. We did not consider any time limitation; English-language papers were included. The related papers were selected in three phases. After quality assessment, two reviewers extracted the data while the third reviewer checked their extracted data. Finally, 15 related articles were selected and included in the current study. Results: Approximately all studies have reported a significant relationship between exposure variable and intended outcomes including eclampsia, preeclampsia, cataract, LBW, PTB, hypertension, sex ratio and length of pregnancy. According to conducted studies, decrease in birth weight is more possible in cold months. Increase in temperature was followed by increase in PTB rate. According to most of the studies, eclampsia and preeclampsia were more prevalent in cold and humid seasons. Two spectrums of heat extent, different seasons of the year, sunlight intensity and season of fertilization were associated with higher rates of PTB, hypertension, eclampsia, preeclampsia, and cataract. Conclusion: Climate change has unfavorable effects on eclampsia, preeclampsia, PTB, and cataract. The findings of this review confirm the crucial importance of the adverse health effects of climate change especially in the perinatal period. PMID:26109998

  2. Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Mosedale, Jonathan R.; Wilson, Robert J.; Maclean, Ilya M. D.

    2015-01-01

    The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions. PMID:26496127

  3. Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions.

    PubMed

    Mosedale, Jonathan R; Wilson, Robert J; Maclean, Ilya M D

    2015-01-01

    The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.

  4. Developing robust crop plants for sustaining growth and yield under adverse climatic changes

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Agricultural production and quality are expected to suffer from adverse changes in climatic conditions, including global warming, and this will affect worldwide human and animal food security. Global warming has been shown to negatively impact crop yield and therefore will affect sustainability of a...

  5. Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species.

    PubMed

    Flousek, Jiří; Telenský, Tomáš; Hanzelka, Jan; Reif, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is among the most important global threats to biodiversity and mountain areas are supposed to be under especially high pressure. Although recent modelling studies suggest considerable future range contractions of montane species accompanied with increased extinction risk, data allowing to test actual population consequences of the observed climate changes and identifying traits associated to their adverse impacts are very scarce. To fill this knowledge gap, we estimated long-term population trends of montane birds from 1984 to 2011 in a central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains (Krkonoše), where significant warming occurred over this period. We then related the population trends to several species' traits related to the climate change effects. We found that the species breeding in various habitats at higher altitudes had more negative trends than species breeding at lower altitudes. We also found that the species moved upwards as a response to warming climate, and these altitudinal range shifts were associated with more positive population trends at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. Moreover, long-distance migrants declined more than residents or species migrating for shorter distances. Taken together, these results indicate that the climate change, besides other possible environmental changes, already influences populations of montane birds with particularly adverse impacts on high-altitude species such as water pipit (Anthus spinoletta). It is evident that the alpine species, predicted to undergo serious climatically induced range contractions due to warming climate in the future, already started moving along this trajectory.

  6. Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species

    PubMed Central

    Flousek, Jiří; Telenský, Tomáš; Hanzelka, Jan; Reif, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is among the most important global threats to biodiversity and mountain areas are supposed to be under especially high pressure. Although recent modelling studies suggest considerable future range contractions of montane species accompanied with increased extinction risk, data allowing to test actual population consequences of the observed climate changes and identifying traits associated to their adverse impacts are very scarce. To fill this knowledge gap, we estimated long-term population trends of montane birds from 1984 to 2011 in a central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains (Krkonoše), where significant warming occurred over this period. We then related the population trends to several species' traits related to the climate change effects. We found that the species breeding in various habitats at higher altitudes had more negative trends than species breeding at lower altitudes. We also found that the species moved upwards as a response to warming climate, and these altitudinal range shifts were associated with more positive population trends at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. Moreover, long-distance migrants declined more than residents or species migrating for shorter distances. Taken together, these results indicate that the climate change, besides other possible environmental changes, already influences populations of montane birds with particularly adverse impacts on high-altitude species such as water pipit (Anthus spinoletta). It is evident that the alpine species, predicted to undergo serious climatically induced range contractions due to warming climate in the future, already started moving along this trajectory. PMID:26426901

  7. Climate change and adverse health events: community perceptions from the Tanahu district of Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishra, Shiva Raj; Mani Bhandari, Parash; Issa, Rita; Neupane, Dinesh; Gurung, Swadesh; Khanal, Vishnu

    2015-03-01

    Nepal is a country economically dependent on climate-sensitive industries. It is highly vulnerable to the environmental, social, economic and health impacts of climate change. The objective of this study is to explore community perceptions of climate variability and human health risks. In this letter, we present a cross sectional study conducted between August 2013 and July 2014 in the Tanahu district of Nepal. Our analysis is based on 258 face-to-face interviews with household heads utilizing structured questionnaires. Over half of the respondents (54.7%) had perceived a change in climate, 53.9% had perceived an increase in temperature in the summer and 49.2% had perceived an increase in rainfall during the rainy season. Half of the respondents perceived an increase in the number of diseases during the summer, 46.5% perceived an increase during the rainy season and 48.8% during winter. Only 8.9% of the respondents felt that the government was doing enough to prevent climate change and its impact on their community. Belonging to the Janajati (indigenous) ethnic group, living in a pakki, super-pakki house and belonging to poor or mid-level income were related to higher odds of perceiving climate variability. Illiterates were less likely to perceive climate variability. Respondents living in a pakki house, super-pakki, or those who were poor were more likely to perceive health risks. Illiterates were less likely to perceive health risks.

  8. Climate Change

    MedlinePlus

    Climate is the average weather in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. ...

  9. Modern maize hybrids in Northeast China exhibit increased yield potential and resource use efficiency despite adverse climate change.

    PubMed

    Chen, Xiaochao; Chen, Fanjun; Chen, Yanling; Gao, Qiang; Yang, Xiaoli; Yuan, Lixing; Zhang, Fusuo; Mi, Guohua

    2013-03-01

    The impact of global changes on food security is of serious concern. Breeding novel crop cultivars adaptable to climate change is one potential solution, but this approach requires an understanding of complex adaptive traits for climate-change conditions. In this study, plant growth, nitrogen (N) uptake, and yield in relation to climatic resource use efficiency of nine representative maize cultivars released between 1973 and 2000 in China were investigated in a 2-year field experiment under three N applications. The Hybrid-Maize model was used to simulate maize yield potential in the period from 1973 to 2011. During the past four decades, the total thermal time (growing degree days) increased whereas the total precipitation and sunshine hours decreased. This climate change led to a reduction of maize potential yield by an average of 12.9% across different hybrids. However, the potential yield of individual hybrids increased by 118.5 kg ha(-1)  yr(-1) with increasing year of release. From 1973 to 2000, the use efficiency of sunshine hours, thermal time, and precipitation resources increased by 37%, 40%, and 41%, respectively. The late developed hybrids showed less reduction in yield potential in current climate conditions than old cultivars, indicating some adaptation to new conditions. Since the mid-1990s, however, the yield impact of climate change exhibited little change, and even a slight worsening for new cultivars. Modern breeding increased ear fertility and grain-filling rate, and delayed leaf senescence without modification in net photosynthetic rate. The trade-off associated with delayed leaf senescence was decreased grain N concentration rather than increased plant N uptake, therefore N agronomic efficiency increased simultaneously. It is concluded that modern maize hybrids tolerate the climatic changes mainly by constitutively optimizing plant productivity. Maize breeding programs in the future should pay more attention to cope with the limiting

  10. Coping with climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Prato, Tony; Fagre, Daniel B.

    2006-01-01

    Climate is not the only factor in the deterioration of natural systems.We are making big changes to the landscape, altering land use and land cover in major ways. These changes combined present a challenge to environmental management. Adaptive management is a scientific approach to managing the adverse impacts of climate and landscape change.

  11. Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change.

    PubMed

    Trnka, Miroslav; Hlavinka, Petr; Semenov, Mikhail A

    2015-11-01

    Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions. PMID:26577595

  12. Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change

    PubMed Central

    Trnka, Miroslav; Hlavinka, Petr; Semenov, Mikhail A.

    2015-01-01

    Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions. PMID:26577595

  13. Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change.

    PubMed

    Trnka, Miroslav; Hlavinka, Petr; Semenov, Mikhail A

    2015-11-01

    Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions.

  14. Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cowie, Jonathan

    2001-05-01

    In recent years climate change has become recognised as the foremost environmental problem of the twenty-first century. Not only will climate change potentially affect the multibillion dollar energy strategies of countries worldwide, but it also could seriously affect many species, including our own. A fascinating introduction to the subject, this textbook provides a broad review of past, present and likely future climate change from the viewpoints of biology, ecology and human ecology. It will be of interest to a wide range of people, from students in the life sciences who need a brief overview of the basics of climate science, to atmospheric science, geography, and environmental science students who need to understand the biological and human ecological implications of climate change. It will also be a valuable reference for those involved in environmental monitoring, conservation, policy-making and policy lobbying. The first book to cover not only the human impacts on climate, but how climate change will affect humans and the species that we rely on Written in an accessible style, with specialist terms used only when necessary and thoroughly explained The author has years of experience conveying the views of biological science learned societies to policy-makers

  15. [Climate change and health].

    PubMed

    Martens, Pim

    2009-01-01

    Despite the targets for greenhouse gas emissions agreed in Kyoto under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change - again to be discussed in Copenhagen in December - climate change will still have serious effects on public health. The health effects of climate change will be noticeable also in the short run. Diseases which are transmitted by arthropod vectors will spread to more areas of the world than where they are present now. In addition, we will have to deal with allergies, deaths due to heat waves, diarrhoea and malnutrition. For this reason, every action is needed now in order to minimise the adverse effects on health.

  16. Climate change and child health.

    PubMed

    Seal, Arnab; Vasudevan, Chakrapani

    2011-12-01

    Postindustrial human activity has contributed to rising atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases causing global warming and climate change. The adverse effects of climate change affect children disproportionately, especially in the developing world. Urgent action is necessary to mitigate the causes and adapt to the negative effects of climate change. Paediatricians have an important role in managing the effects of climate change on children and promoting sustainable development.

  17. Climate Change Schools Project...

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools Project…

  18. Projected 21st Century Impacts of Climate Change on the Performance of the Los Angeles Aqueduct and Adaptation Measures to Mitigate Adverse Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mills, B.; Sayenko, K.; Roy, S. B.; Lew, C.

    2011-12-01

    One of the largest sources of drinking water to the City of Los Angeles (the City) comes from snow melt from the Eastern Sierra Nevada Mountains that drain into Owens Valley and Mono Basin. Much of this water is then transported to the City via the Los Angeles Aqueduct (LAA) originally built in 1913. During the 1980s and earlier, up to 500,000 acre-feet (af) of water was conveyed annually, but more recently less water has been transported due to increasing usage in Owens Valley, and due to a series of dry years.The City is concerned about potential impacts of climate change on this water supply, and commissioned the authors to perform a study to evaluate these potential impacts on both the infrastructure of the LAA and water supply to the City. This presentation focuses on the water supply issue, which has the potential to impact millions of customers. The study results presented here are part of a larger study where 16 global climate models were downscaled and applied to the Owens Valley and Mono Basin watersheds. This presentation begins by assuming base-of-mountain runoff is known from the 16 GCMs, and does not focus on the GCMs or downscaling.The results of the study described in this presentation are those of the authors and not of the LADWP. One of the most consequential findings of the study is the projected decrease in runoff from the watershed over the 21st century. While wet years are still dispersed between dry years, over the 21st century the loss in runoff is equivalent to approximately five years of historical average runoff. In addition to climate change impacts, water usage in the Owens valley is projected to increase over the 21st century and that increasing usage is projected to be comparable to climate change impacts. Eight adaptation options were identified to mitigate potential impacts. These included increasing storage volume of reservoirs in Owens Valley, changing operational rules for releasing water, construction of surface storage or

  19. Fiddling with climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2012-01-01

    Composer and string musician, turned award-winning environmentalist, Aubrey Meyer tells Nature Climate Change why he is campaigning for countries to adopt his 'contraction and convergence' model of global development to avoid dangerous climate change.

  20. Climate Change and Health

    MedlinePlus

    ... 2014 Fact sheets Features Commentaries 2014 Multimedia Contacts Climate change and health Fact sheet Reviewed June 2016 Key ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – particularly ...

  1. The Changing Climate.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schneider, Stephen H.

    1989-01-01

    Discusses the global change of climate. Presents the trend of climate change with graphs. Describes mathematical climate models including expressions for the interacting components of the ocean-atmosphere system and equations representing the basic physical laws governing their behavior. Provides three possible responses on the change. (YP)

  2. Global Climate Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hall, Dorothy K.

    1989-01-01

    Discusses recent changes in the Earth's climate. Summarizes reports on changes related to carbon dioxide, temperature, rain, sea level, and glaciers in polar areas. Describes the present effort to measure the changes. Lists 16 references. (YP)

  3. "Dangerous" Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mastrandrea, M. D.

    2003-12-01

    Current climate change mitigation policy decisions must be made despite layers of uncertainty. Modeling of future climate, projections for future economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions, and characterizations of the interactions and feedbacks within the coupled social-natural system all contain uncertain components. Researchers communicating with policymakers have learned that, instead of presenting "best guesses" or other point estimates, uncertainty assignments require such techniques as probability distributions of outcomes and quantitatively defined descriptions of subjective confidence. We present a quantification of "dangerous" climate change, a term important in policy discussions. Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change expresses the opinion of the signing Parties that steps be taken to "prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system," but the Convention did not specify what constitutes the value judgment of being "dangerous." We present one possible definition. A threshold for "dangerous" climate change is a clear tool for evaluating the need for and impact of proposed climate policy. Monte Carlo analyses with a simple integrated assessment model demonstrate that endogenously calculated climate policy controls appreciably reduce the probability of "dangerous" climate change. Under mid-range assumptions, climate policy reduces the probability of "dangerous" climate change by 30-50%.

  4. Our Changing Climate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Newhouse, Kay Berglund

    2007-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses how global warming makes the leap from the headlines to the classroom with thought-provoking science experiments. To teach her fifth-grade students about climate change, the author starts with a discussion of the United States' local climate. They extend this idea to contrast the local climate with others,…

  5. Climate Change in Prehistory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burroughs, William James

    2005-06-01

    How did humankind deal with the extreme challenges of the last Ice Age? How have the relatively benign post-Ice Age conditions affected the evolution and spread of humanity across the globe? By setting our genetic history in the context of climate change during prehistory, the origin of many features of our modern world are identified and presented in this illuminating book. It reviews the aspects of our physiology and intellectual development that have been influenced by climatic factors, and how features of our lives - diet, language and the domestication of animals - are also the product of the climate in which we evolved. In short: climate change in prehistory has in many ways made us what we are today. Climate Change in Prehistory weaves together studies of the climate with anthropological, archaeological and historical studies, and will fascinate all those interested in the effects of climate on human development and history.

  6. Climate change 2007 - mitigation of climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Metz, B.; Davidson, O.; Bosch, P.; Dave, R.; Meyer, L.

    2007-07-01

    This volume of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive, state-of-the-art and worldwide overview of scientific knowledge related to the mitigation of climate change. It includes a detailed assessment of costs and potentials of mitigation technologies and practices, implementation barriers, and policy options for the sectors: energy supply, transport, buildings, industry, agriculture, forestry and waste management. It links sustainable development policies with climate change practices. This volume will again be the standard reference for all those concerned with climate change. Contents: Foreword; Preface; Summary for policymakers; Technical Summary; 1. Introduction; 2. Framing issues; 3. Issues related to mitigation in the long term context; 4. Energy supply; 5. Transport and its infrastructure; 6. Residential and commercial buildings; 7. Industry; 8. Agriculture; 9. Forestry; 10. Waste management; 11. Mitigation from a cross sectoral perspective; 12. Sustainable development and mitigation; 13. Policies, instruments and co-operative agreements. 300 figs., 50 tabs., 3 annexes.

  7. Climate change and mitigation.

    PubMed

    Nibleus, Kerstin; Lundin, Rickard

    2010-01-01

    Planet Earth has experienced repeated changes of its climate throughout time. Periods warmer than today as well as much colder, during glacial episodes, have alternated. In our time, rapid population growth with increased demand for natural resources and energy, has made society increasingly vulnerable to environmental changes, both natural and those caused by man; human activity is clearly affecting the radiation balance of the Earth. In the session "Climate Change and Mitigation" the speakers offered four different views on coal and CO2: the basis for life, but also a major hazard with impact on Earth's climate. A common denominator in the presentations was that more than ever science and technology is required. We need not only understand the mechanisms for climate change and climate variability, we also need to identify means to remedy the anthropogenic influence on Earth's climate.

  8. Cuba confronts climate change.

    PubMed

    Alonso, Gisela; Clark, Ismael

    2015-04-01

    Among environmental problems, climate change presents the greatest challenges to developing countries, especially island nations. Changes in climate and the resulting effects on human health call for examination of the interactions between environmental and social factors. Important in Cuba's case are soil conditions, food availability, disease burden, ecological changes, extreme weather events, water quality and rising sea levels, all in conjunction with a range of social, cultural, economic and demographic conditions.

  9. Cuba confronts climate change.

    PubMed

    Alonso, Gisela; Clark, Ismael

    2015-04-01

    Among environmental problems, climate change presents the greatest challenges to developing countries, especially island nations. Changes in climate and the resulting effects on human health call for examination of the interactions between environmental and social factors. Important in Cuba's case are soil conditions, food availability, disease burden, ecological changes, extreme weather events, water quality and rising sea levels, all in conjunction with a range of social, cultural, economic and demographic conditions. PMID:26027581

  10. What Is Climate Change?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beswick, Adele

    2007-01-01

    Weather consists of those meteorological events, such as rain, wind and sunshine, which can change day-by-day or even hour-by-hour. Climate is the average of all these events, taken over a period of time. The climate varies over different parts of the world. Climate is usually defined as the average of the weather over a 30-year period. It is when…

  11. Climate change and skin.

    PubMed

    Balato, N; Ayala, F; Megna, M; Balato, A; Patruno, C

    2013-02-01

    Global climate appears to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Climate change can be caused by several factors that include variations in solar radiation received by earth, oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions, as well as human-induced alterations of the natural world. Many human activities, such as the use of fossil fuel and the consequent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, land consumption, deforestation, industrial processes, as well as some agriculture practices are contributing to global climate change. Indeed, many authors have reported on the current trend towards global warming (average surface temperature has augmented by 0.6 °C over the past 100 years), decreased precipitation, atmospheric humidity changes, and global rise in extreme climatic events. The magnitude and cause of these changes and their impact on human activity have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing climate change as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Although many articles have been written based on observations and various predictive models of how climate change could affect social, economic and health systems, only few studies exist about the effects of this change on skin physiology and diseases. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. For example, global warming, deforestation and changes in precipitation have been linked to variations in the geographical distribution of vectors of some infectious diseases (leishmaniasis, lyme disease, etc) by changing their spread, whereas warm and humid environment can also encourage the colonization of the skin by bacteria and fungi. The present review focuses on the wide and complex relationship between climate change and dermatology, showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence and the clinical pattern of many

  12. Climate change and skin.

    PubMed

    Balato, N; Ayala, F; Megna, M; Balato, A; Patruno, C

    2013-02-01

    Global climate appears to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Climate change can be caused by several factors that include variations in solar radiation received by earth, oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions, as well as human-induced alterations of the natural world. Many human activities, such as the use of fossil fuel and the consequent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, land consumption, deforestation, industrial processes, as well as some agriculture practices are contributing to global climate change. Indeed, many authors have reported on the current trend towards global warming (average surface temperature has augmented by 0.6 °C over the past 100 years), decreased precipitation, atmospheric humidity changes, and global rise in extreme climatic events. The magnitude and cause of these changes and their impact on human activity have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing climate change as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Although many articles have been written based on observations and various predictive models of how climate change could affect social, economic and health systems, only few studies exist about the effects of this change on skin physiology and diseases. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. For example, global warming, deforestation and changes in precipitation have been linked to variations in the geographical distribution of vectors of some infectious diseases (leishmaniasis, lyme disease, etc) by changing their spread, whereas warm and humid environment can also encourage the colonization of the skin by bacteria and fungi. The present review focuses on the wide and complex relationship between climate change and dermatology, showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence and the clinical pattern of many

  13. Climate Change: An Activity.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lewis, Garry

    1995-01-01

    Presents a segment of the Geoscience Education booklet, Climate Change, that contains information and activities that enable students to gain a better appreciation of the possible effects human activity has on the Earth's climate. Describes the Terrace Temperatures activity that leads students through an investigation using foraminifera data to…

  14. Climate Change Made Simple

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shallcross, Dudley E.; Harrison, Tim G.

    2007-01-01

    The newly revised specifications for GCSE science involve greater consideration of climate change. This topic appears in either the chemistry or biology section, depending on the examination board, and is a good example of "How Science Works." It is therefore timely that students are given an opportunity to conduct some simple climate modelling.…

  15. Global climate change and children's health.

    PubMed

    Shea, Katherine M

    2007-11-01

    There is a broad scientific consensus that the global climate is warming, the process is accelerating, and that human activities are very likely (>90% probability) the main cause. This warming will have effects on ecosystems and human health, many of them adverse. Children will experience both the direct and indirect effects of climate change. Actions taken by individuals, communities, businesses, and governments will affect the magnitude and rate of global climate change and resultant health impacts. This technical report reviews the nature of the global problem and anticipated health effects on children and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health.

  16. Creationism & Climate Change (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newton, S.

    2009-12-01

    Although creationists focus on the biological sciences, recently creationists have also expanded their attacks to include the earth sciences, especially on the topic of climate change. The creationist effort to deny climate change, in addition to evolution and radiometric dating, is part of a broader denial of the methodology and validity of science itself. Creationist misinformation can pose a serious problem for science educators, who are further hindered by the poor treatment of the earth sciences and climate change in state science standards. Recent changes to Texas’ science standards, for example, require that students learn “different views on the existence of global warming.” Because of Texas’ large influence on the national textbook market, textbooks presenting non-scientific “different views” about climate change—or simply omitting the subject entirely because of the alleged “controversy”—could become part of K-12 classrooms across the country.

  17. Criminality and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, Rob

    2016-08-01

    The impacts of climate change imply a reconceptualization of environment-related criminality. Criminology can offer insight into the definitions and dynamics of this behaviour, and outline potential areas of redress.

  18. Climate change and inuits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    The Inuit Circumpolar Conference will seek a declaration from the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights that emissions of greenhouse gases, which the conference says, are destroying the Inuit way of life, are a violation of human rights, conference chair Sheila Watt-Cloutier announced on 15 December.Her announcement comes shortly after the mid-November release of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, a scientific study by an international team of 300 scientists. That assessment noted, “The Arctic is now experiencing some of the most rapid and severe climate change on Earth. Over the next 100 years, climate change is expected to accelerate, contributing to major physical, ecological, social, and economic changes, many of which have already begun. Changes in Arctic climate will also affect the rest of the world through increased global warming and rising sea levels.”

  19. Global Climatic Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Houghton, Richard A.; Woodwell, George M.

    1989-01-01

    Cites some of the evidence which suggests that the production of carbon dioxide and methane from human activities has begun to change the climate. Describes some measures which should be taken to stop or slow this progression. (RT)

  20. Global climate change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levine, Joel S.

    1991-01-01

    Present processes of global climate change are reviewed. The processes determining global temperature are briefly described and the concept of effective temperature is elucidated. The greenhouse effect is examined, including the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases.

  1. Rapid climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Morantine, M.C.

    1995-12-31

    Interactions between insolation changes due to orbital parameter variations, carbon dioxide concentration variations, the rate of deep water formation in the North Atlantic and the evolution of the northern hemisphere ice sheets during the most recent glacial cycle will be investigated. In order to investigate this period, a climate model is being developed to evaluate the physical mechanisms thought to be most significant during this period. The description of the model sub-components will be presented. The more one knows about the interactions between the sub-components of the climate system during periods of documented rapid climate change, the better equipped one will be to make rational decisions on issues related to impacts on the environment. This will be an effort to gauge the feedback processes thought to be instrumental in rapid climate shifts documented in the past, and their potential to influence the current climate. 53 refs.

  2. Global climatic change

    SciTech Connect

    Houghton, R.A.; Woodwell, G.M.

    1989-04-01

    This paper reviews the climatic effects of trace gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. It discusses the expected changes from the increases in trace gases and the extent to which the expected changes can be found in the climate record and in the retreat of glaciers. The use of ice cores in correlating atmospheric composition and climate is discussed. The response of terrestrial ecosystems as a biotic feedback is discussed. Possible responses are discussed, including reduction in fossil-fuel use, controls on deforestation, and reforestation. International aspects, such as the implications for developing nations, are addressed.

  3. Observed climate change hotspots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turco, M.; Palazzi, E.; Hardenberg, J.; Provenzale, A.

    2015-05-01

    We quantify climate change hotspots from observations, taking into account the differences in precipitation and temperature statistics (mean, variability, and extremes) between 1981-2010 and 1951-1980. Areas in the Amazon, the Sahel, tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and central eastern Asia emerge as primary observed hotspots. The main contributing factors are the global increase in mean temperatures, the intensification of extreme hot-season occurrence in low-latitude regions and the decrease of precipitation over central Africa. Temperature and precipitation variability have been substantially stable over the past decades, with only a few areas showing significant changes against the background climate variability. The regions identified from the observations are remarkably similar to those defined from projections of global climate models under a "business-as-usual" scenario, indicating that climate change hotspots are robust and persistent over time. These results provide a useful background to develop global policy decisions on adaptation and mitigation priorities over near-time horizons.

  4. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  5. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

    PubMed

    Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  6. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

    PubMed

    Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

  7. Poverty and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Vink, G.; Franco, E.; Fuckar, N. S.; Kalmbach, E. R.; Kayatta, E.; Lankester, K.; Rothschild, R. E.; Sarma, A.; Wall, M. L.

    2008-05-01

    The poor are disproportionately vulnerable to environmental change because they have the least amount of resources with which to adapt, and they live in areas (e.g. flood plains, low-lying coastal areas, and marginal drylands) that are particularly vulnerable to the manifestations of climate change. By quantifying the various environmental, economic, and social factors that can contribute to poverty, we identify populations that are most vulnerable to poverty and poverty traps due to environmental change. We define vulnerability as consisting of risk (probability of event and exposed elements), resiliency, and capacity to respond. Resiliency captures the social system's ability to absorb a natural disaster while retaining the same basic structure, organization, and ways of functioning, as well as its general capacity to adapt to stress and change. Capacity to respond is a surrogate for technical skills, institutional capabilities, and efficacy within countries and their economies. We use a "climate change multiplier" to account for possible increases in the frequency and severity of natural events due to climate change. Through various analytical methods, we quantify the social, political, economic, and environmental factors that contribute to poverty or poverty traps. These data sets are then used to determine vulnerability through raster multiplication in geospatial analysis. The vulnerability of a particular location to climate change is then mapped, with areas of high vulnerability clearly delineated. The success of this methodology indicates that it is indeed possible to quantify the effects of climate change on global vulnerability to natural disasters, and can be used as a mechanism to identify areas where proactive measures, such as improving adaptation or capacity to respond, can reduce the humanitarian and economic impacts of climate change.

  8. Current Climate Variability & Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diem, J.; Criswell, B.; Elliott, W. C.

    2013-12-01

    Current Climate Variability & Change is the ninth among a suite of ten interconnected, sequential labs that address all 39 climate-literacy concepts in the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. The labs are as follows: Solar Radiation & Seasons, Stratospheric Ozone, The Troposphere, The Carbon Cycle, Global Surface Temperature, Glacial-Interglacial Cycles, Temperature Changes over the Past Millennium, Climates & Ecosystems, Current Climate Variability & Change, and Future Climate Change. All are inquiry-based, on-line products designed in a way that enables students to construct their own knowledge of a topic. Questions representative of various levels of Webb's depth of knowledge are embedded in each lab. In addition to the embedded questions, each lab has three or four essential questions related to the driving questions for the lab suite. These essential questions are presented as statements at the beginning of the material to represent the lab objectives, and then are asked at the end as questions to function as a summative assessment. For example, the Current Climate Variability & Change is built around these essential questions: (1) What has happened to the global temperature at the Earth's surface, in the middle troposphere, and in the lower stratosphere over the past several decades?; (2) What is the most likely cause of the changes in global temperature over the past several decades and what evidence is there that this is the cause?; and (3) What have been some of the clearly defined effects of the change in global temperature on the atmosphere and other spheres of the Earth system? An introductory Prezi allows the instructor to assess students' prior knowledge in relation to these questions, while also providing 'hooks' to pique their interest related to the topic. The lab begins by presenting examples of and key differences between climate variability (e.g., Mt. Pinatubo eruption) and

  9. Avoiding dangerous climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Hans Joachim Schellnhuber; Wolfgang Cramer; Nebojsa Nakicenovic; Tom Wigley; Gary Yohe

    2006-02-15

    In 2005 the UK Government hosted the Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change conference to take an in-depth look at the scientific issues associated with climate change. This volume presents the most recent findings from the leading international scientists that attended the conference. The topics addressed include critical thresholds and key vulnerabilities of the climate system, impacts on human and natural systems, socioeconomic costs and benefits of emissions pathways, and technological options for meeting different stabilisation levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Contents are: Foreword from Prime Minister Tony Blair; Introduction from Rajendra Pachauri, Chairman of the IPCC; followed by 41 papers arranged in seven sections entitled: Key Vulnerabilities of the Climate System and Critical Thresholds; General Perspectives on Dangerous Impacts; Key Vulnerabilities for Ecosystems and Biodiversity; Socio-Economic Effects; Regional Perspectives; Emission Pathways; and Technological Options. Four papers have been abstracted separately for the Coal Abstracts database.

  10. Debating Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Malone, Elizabeth L.

    2009-11-01

    Debating Climate Change explores, both theoretically and empirically, how people argue about climate change and link to each other through various elements in their arguments. As science is a central issue in the debate, the arguments of scientists and the interpretations and responses of non-scientists are important aspects of the analysis. The book first assesses current thinking about the climate change debate and current participants in the debates surrounding the issue, as well as a brief history of various groups’ involvements. Chapters 2 and 3 distill and organize various ways of framing the climate change issue. Beginning in Chapter 4, a modified classical analysis of the elements carried in an argument is used to identify areas and degrees of disagreement and agreement. One hundred documents, drawn from a wide spectrum of sources, map the topic and debate space of the climate change issue. Five elements of each argument are distilled: the authority of the writer, the evidence presented, the formulation of the argument, the worldview presented, and the actions proposed. Then a social network analysis identifies elements of the arguments that point to potential agreements. Finally, the book suggests mechanisms by which participants in the debate can build more general agreements on elements of existing agreement.

  11. Climate Change: Good for Us?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oblak, Jackie

    2000-01-01

    Presents an activity with the objective of encouraging students to think about the effects of climate change. Explains background information on dependence to climate and discuses whether climate change is important. Provides information for the activity, extensions, and evaluation. (YDS)

  12. Climate change, cash transfers and health

    PubMed Central

    Shaw, Caroline; Rasanathan, Kumanan; Yablonski, Jennifer; Kawachi, Ichiro; Hales, Simon

    2015-01-01

    Abstract The forecast consequences of climate change on human health are profound, especially in low- and middle-income countries and among the most disadvantaged populations. Innovative policy tools are needed to address the adverse health effects of climate change. Cash transfers are established policy tools for protecting population health before, during and after climate-related disasters. For example, the Ethiopian Productive Safety Net Programme provides cash transfers to reduce food insecurity resulting from droughts. We propose extending cash transfer interventions to more proactive measures to improve health in the context of climate change. We identify promising cash transfer schemes that could be used to prevent the adverse health consequences of climatic hazards. Cash transfers for using emission-free, active modes of transport – e.g. cash for cycling to work – could prevent future adverse health consequences by contributing to climate change mitigation and, at the same time, improving current population health. Another example is cash transfers provided to communities that decide to move to areas in which their lives and health are not threatened by climatic disasters. More research on such interventions is needed to ensure that they are effective, ethical, equitable and cost–effective. PMID:26478613

  13. Climate change, cash transfers and health.

    PubMed

    Pega, Frank; Shaw, Caroline; Rasanathan, Kumanan; Yablonski, Jennifer; Kawachi, Ichiro; Hales, Simon

    2015-08-01

    The forecast consequences of climate change on human health are profound, especially in low- and middle-income countries and among the most disadvantaged populations. Innovative policy tools are needed to address the adverse health effects of climate change. Cash transfers are established policy tools for protecting population health before, during and after climate-related disasters. For example, the Ethiopian Productive Safety Net Programme provides cash transfers to reduce food insecurity resulting from droughts. We propose extending cash transfer interventions to more proactive measures to improve health in the context of climate change. We identify promising cash transfer schemes that could be used to prevent the adverse health consequences of climatic hazards. Cash transfers for using emission-free, active modes of transport - e.g. cash for cycling to work - could prevent future adverse health consequences by contributing to climate change mitigation and, at the same time, improving current population health. Another example is cash transfers provided to communities that decide to move to areas in which their lives and health are not threatened by climatic disasters. More research on such interventions is needed to ensure that they are effective, ethical, equitable and cost-effective.

  14. Climate-change scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wagner, F.H.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Baldwin, C.K.; Mearns, L.O.; Wagner, F.H.

    2003-01-01

    In 1991, the United States Congress passed the Global Change Research Act directing the Executive Branch of government to assess the potential effects of predicted climate change and variability on the nation. This congressional action followed formation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988 by the United Nations Environmental Program and World Meteorological Organization. Some 2,000 scientists from more than 150 nations contribute to the efforts of the IPCC. Under coordination of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, the congressionally ordered national assessment has divided the country into 19 regions and five socio-economic sectors that cut across the regions: agriculture, coastal and marine systems, forests, human health, and water. Potential climate-change effects are being assessed in each region and sector, and those efforts collectively make up the national assessment. This document reports the assessment of potential climate-change effects on the Rocky Mountain/Great Basin (RMGB) region which encompasses parts of nine western states. The assessment began February 16-18, 1998 with a workshop in Salt Lake City co-convened by Frederic H. Wagner of Utah State University and Jill Baron of the U.S. Geological Survey Biological Resources Division (BRD). Invitations were sent to some 300 scientists and stakeholders representing 18 socio-economic sectors in nine statesa?|

  15. Anthropogenic climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Budyko, M.I.; Izreal, Yu.A.

    1991-01-01

    The climate modeling community would agree that the present generation of theoretical models cannot adequately answer important question about the climatic implications of increasing concentrations of CO[sub 2] and other greenhouse gases. Society, however, is presently deciding by its action, or inaction, the policies that will deal with the extent and results of our collective flatulence. In this situation, an engineering approach to estimating the developing pattern of anthropogenic climate change is appropriate. For example, Budyko has argued that, while scientists may have made great advances in modelling the flow around an airfoil, engineers make extensive use of empirical equations and measurements to design airplanes that fly. Budyko and Izreal have produced an encyclopedic treatise summarizing the results of Soviet researchers in applying empirical and semiempirical methods to estimating future climatic patterns, and some of their ensuring effects. These techniques consist mainly of statistical relationships derived from 1850-1950 network data and of patterns revealed by analysis of paleoclimatic data. An important part of the Soviet effort in anthropogenic climate-change studies is empirical techniques that represent independent verification of the results of theoretical climate models.

  16. [Lifestyle and climate change].

    PubMed

    Lidegaard, Øjvind

    2009-10-26

    The majority of physicians are aware of the urgency of preventing major global warming, and of the global health consequences such warming could bring. Therefore, we should perhaps be more motivated to mitigate these climate changes. The Danish Medical Association should stress the importance of preventing major global climate health disasters, and the need for ambitious international reduction agreements. In our advice and treatment of patients, focus could be on mutually shared strategies comprising mitigation of global warming and changing of life-style habits to improve our general health.

  17. Global climate change and infectious diseases.

    PubMed

    Shuman, E K

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is occurring as a result of warming of the earth's atmosphere due to human activity generating excess amounts of greenhouse gases. Because of its potential impact on the hydrologic cycle and severe weather events, climate change is expected to have an enormous effect on human health, including on the burden and distribution of many infectious diseases. The infectious diseases that will be most affected by climate change include those that are spread by insect vectors and by contaminated water. The burden of adverse health effects due to these infectious diseases will fall primarily on developing countries, while it is the developed countries that are primarily responsible for climate change. It is up to governments and individuals to take the lead in halting climate change, and we must increase our understanding of the ecology of infectious diseases in order to protect vulnerable populations.

  18. Climate change and amphibians

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Corn, P.S.

    2005-01-01

    Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species

  19. Climate change, climate variability and brucellosis.

    PubMed

    Rodríguez-Morales, Alfonso J

    2013-04-01

    In addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods, climate change is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity, altering the composition of global atmosphere. This phenomenon continues to be a significant and global threat for the humankind, and its impact compromises many aspects of the society at different levels, including health. The impact of climate change on zoonotic diseases has been largely ignored, particularly brucellosis. We here review some direct and indirect evidences of the impact of climate change and climate variability on brucellosis.

  20. Climate for Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newell, Peter

    2000-09-01

    This volume provides a challenging explanation of the forces that have shaped the international global warming debate. It takes a novel approach to the subject by concentrating on the ways non-state actors--such as scientific, environmental and industry groups, as opposed to governmental organizations--affect political outcomes in global fora on climate change. It also provides insights into the role of the media in influencing the agenda. The book draws on a range of analytical approaches to assess and explain the influence of these nongovernmental organizations on the course of global climate politics. The book will be of interest to all researchers and policy makers associated with climate change, and will be used in university courses in international relations, politics, and environmental studies.

  1. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions.

    PubMed

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Parks, Sean A

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

  2. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-08-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported.

  3. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    PubMed Central

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

  4. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions.

    PubMed

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Parks, Sean A

    2016-08-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported.

  5. Confronting Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roach, Ronald

    2009-01-01

    The Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, an African-American think tank based in Washington, D.C., convenes a commission to focus on the disparate impact of climate change on minority communities and help involve historically Black institutions in clean energy projects. Launched formally in July 2008, the Commission to Engage…

  6. Climate Change? When? Where?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boon, Helen

    2009-01-01

    Regional Australian students were surveyed to explore their understanding and knowledge of the greenhouse effect, ozone depletion and climate change. Results were compared with a parallel study undertaken in 1991 in a regional UK city. The comparison was conducted to investigate whether more awareness and understanding of these issues is…

  7. Emissions versus climate change

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change is likely to offset some of the improvements in air quality expected from reductions in pollutant emissions. A comprehensive analysis of future air quality over North America suggests that, on balance, the air will still be cleaner in coming decades.

  8. Learning Progressions & Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parker, Joyce M.; de los Santos, Elizabeth X.; Anderson, Charles W.

    2015-01-01

    Our society is currently having serious debates about sources of energy and global climate change. But do students (and the public) have the requisite knowledge to engage these issues as informed citizenry? The learning-progression research summarized here indicates that only 10% of high school students typically have a level of understanding…

  9. Climate change in Iceland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snorrason, A.; Bjornsson, H.

    2010-12-01

    The sub-polar maritime climate of Iceland is characterized by relatively large inter-decadal variations. Temperature measurements and climate related proxies show that the 19th century was colder and more variable than the 20th century. Iceland experienced rapid warming in the 1920s and relatively mild conditions prevailed until the 1960s, when colder conditions set in. In recent decades Iceland has again experienced significant warming and early this century the temperatures exceeded those attained during the mid 20th century warm period. The recent warming has been accompanied by significant changes in both physical and biological systems. These include glacier retreat, runoff changes and isostatic rebound, increased plant productivity and changes in tree-limits. In the coastal waters the range of fish species is changing reflecting warmer conditions.

  10. Climate change in Iceland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Björnsson, H.; Jónsson, T.

    2009-04-01

    The sub-polar maritime climate of Iceland is characterized by relatively large inter-decadal variations. Temperature measurements and climate related proxies show that the 19th century was colder and more variable than the 20th century. Iceland experienced rapid warming in the 1920s and relatively mild conditions prevailed until the 1960s, when colder conditions set in. In recent decades Iceland has again experienced significant warming and early this century the temperatures exceeded those attained during the mid 20th century warm period. The recent warming has been accompanied by significant changes in both physical and biological systems. These include glacier retreat, runoff and coastal changes, increased plant productivity and changes in tree-limits. In the coastal waters the range of fish species is changing reflecting warmer conditions.

  11. USDA Southwest climate hub for climate change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The USDA Southwest (SW) Climate Hub was created in February 2014 to develop risk adaptation and mitigation strategies for coping with climate change effects on agricultural productivity. There are seven regional hubs across the country with three subsidiary hubs. The SW Climate Hub Region is made up...

  12. Climate Change, Human Rights, and Social Justice.

    PubMed

    Levy, Barry S; Patz, Jonathan A

    2015-01-01

    The environmental and health consequences of climate change, which disproportionately affect low-income countries and poor people in high-income countries, profoundly affect human rights and social justice. Environmental consequences include increased temperature, excess precipitation in some areas and droughts in others, extreme weather events, and increased sea level. These consequences adversely affect agricultural production, access to safe water, and worker productivity, and, by inundating land or making land uninhabitable and uncultivatable, will force many people to become environmental refugees. Adverse health effects caused by climate change include heat-related disorders, vector-borne diseases, foodborne and waterborne diseases, respiratory and allergic disorders, malnutrition, collective violence, and mental health problems. These environmental and health consequences threaten civil and political rights and economic, social, and cultural rights, including rights to life, access to safe food and water, health, security, shelter, and culture. On a national or local level, those people who are most vulnerable to the adverse environmental and health consequences of climate change include poor people, members of minority groups, women, children, older people, people with chronic diseases and disabilities, those residing in areas with a high prevalence of climate-related diseases, and workers exposed to extreme heat or increased weather variability. On a global level, there is much inequity, with low-income countries, which produce the least greenhouse gases (GHGs), being more adversely affected by climate change than high-income countries, which produce substantially higher amounts of GHGs yet are less immediately affected. In addition, low-income countries have far less capability to adapt to climate change than high-income countries. Adaptation and mitigation measures to address climate change needed to protect human society must also be planned to protect

  13. Climate Change, Human Rights, and Social Justice.

    PubMed

    Levy, Barry S; Patz, Jonathan A

    2015-01-01

    The environmental and health consequences of climate change, which disproportionately affect low-income countries and poor people in high-income countries, profoundly affect human rights and social justice. Environmental consequences include increased temperature, excess precipitation in some areas and droughts in others, extreme weather events, and increased sea level. These consequences adversely affect agricultural production, access to safe water, and worker productivity, and, by inundating land or making land uninhabitable and uncultivatable, will force many people to become environmental refugees. Adverse health effects caused by climate change include heat-related disorders, vector-borne diseases, foodborne and waterborne diseases, respiratory and allergic disorders, malnutrition, collective violence, and mental health problems. These environmental and health consequences threaten civil and political rights and economic, social, and cultural rights, including rights to life, access to safe food and water, health, security, shelter, and culture. On a national or local level, those people who are most vulnerable to the adverse environmental and health consequences of climate change include poor people, members of minority groups, women, children, older people, people with chronic diseases and disabilities, those residing in areas with a high prevalence of climate-related diseases, and workers exposed to extreme heat or increased weather variability. On a global level, there is much inequity, with low-income countries, which produce the least greenhouse gases (GHGs), being more adversely affected by climate change than high-income countries, which produce substantially higher amounts of GHGs yet are less immediately affected. In addition, low-income countries have far less capability to adapt to climate change than high-income countries. Adaptation and mitigation measures to address climate change needed to protect human society must also be planned to protect

  14. Challenges of climate change

    PubMed Central

    Husaini, Amjad M

    2014-01-01

    Kashmir valley is a major saffron (Crocus sativus Kashmirianus) growing area of the world, second only to Iran in terms of production. In Kashmir, saffron is grown on uplands (termed in the local language as “Karewas”), which are lacustrine deposits located at an altitude of 1585 to 1677 m above mean sea level (amsl), under temperate climatic conditions. Kashmir, despite being one of the oldest historical saffron-producing areas faces a rapid decline of saffron industry. Among many other factors responsible for decline of saffron industry the preponderance of erratic rainfalls and drought-like situation have become major challenges imposed by climate change. Saffron has a limited coverage area as it is grown as a ‘niche crop’ and is a recognized “geographical indication,” growing under a narrow microclimatic condition. As such it has become a victim of climate change effects, which has the potential of jeopardizing the livelihood of thousands of farmers and traders associated with it. The paper discusses the potential and actual impact of climate change process on saffron cultivation in Kashmir; and the biotechnological measures to address these issues. PMID:25072266

  15. Global Distributions of Vulnerability to Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Yohe, Gary; Malone, Elizabeth L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.; Schlesinger, Michael; Meij, Henk; Xiaoshi, Xing

    2006-12-01

    Signatories of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have committed themselves to addressing the “specific needs and special circumstances of developing country parties, especially those that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change”.1 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has since concluded with high confidence that “developing countries will be more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries”.2 In their most recent report, however, the IPCC notes that “current knowledge of adaptation and adaptive capacity is insufficient for reliable prediction of adaptations” 3 because “the capacity to adapt varies considerably among regions, countries and socioeconomic groups and will vary over time”.4 Here, we respond to the apparent contradiction in these two statements by exploring how variation in adaptive capacity and climate impacts combine to influence the global distribution of vulnerability. We find that all countries will be vulnerable to climate change, even if their adaptive capacities are enhanced. Developing nations are most vulnerable to modest climate change. Reducing greenhouse-gas emissions would diminish their vulnerabilities significantly. Developed countries would benefit most from mitigation for moderate climate change. Extreme climate change overwhelms the abilities of all countries to adapt. These findings should inform both ongoing negotiations for the next commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol and emerging plans for implementing UNFCCC-sponsored adaptation funds.

  16. Soil management to mitigate climate change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change has been identified as a global issue that is adversely impacting the environment (USEPA, 2010; USDA NRCS, 2010), yet policymakers and members of the public may not be aware of the pivotal role that the earth’s soils play as a source and a sink of radiatively-active gases. Additionall...

  17. Hantaviruses and climate change.

    PubMed

    Klempa, B

    2009-06-01

    Most hantaviruses are rodent-borne emerging viruses. They cause two significant human diseases, haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Asia and Europe, and hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome in the Americas. Very recently, several novel hantaviruses with unknown pathogenic potential have been identified in Africa and in a variety of insectivores (shrews and a mole). Because there is very limited information available on the possible impact of climate change on all of these highly dangerous pathogens, it is timely to review this aspect of their epidemiology. It can reasonably be concluded that climate change should influence hantaviruses through impacts on the hantavirus reservoir host populations. We can anticipate changes in the size and frequency of hantavirus outbreaks, the spectrum of hantavirus species and geographical distribution (mediated by changes in population densities), and species composition and geographical distribution of their reservoir hosts. The early effects of global warming have already been observed in different geographical areas of Europe. Elevated average temperatures in West-Central Europe have been associated with more frequent Puumala hantavirus outbreaks, through high seed production (mast year) and high bank vole densities. On the other hand, warm winters in Scandinavia have led to a decline in vole populations as a result of the missing protective snow cover. Additional effects can be caused by increased intensity and frequency of extreme climatic events, or by changes in human behaviour leading to higher risk of human virus exposure. Regardless of the extent of climate change, it is difficult to predict the impact on hantavirus survival, emergence and epidemiology. Nevertheless, hantaviruses will undoubtedly remain a significant public health threat for several decades to come.

  18. Smithsonian climate change exhibits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, Mohi

    2006-05-01

    Two new museum exhibits, ``Arctic: A Friend Acting Strangely'' and ``Atmosphere: Change is in the Air'' opened 15 April at the Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of Natural History in Washington, D.C., in partnership with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, and the U.S. National Science Foundation. In ``Arctic: A Friend Acting Strangely,'' anecdotes from indigenous polar people reveal how climate changes have affected life within the last 50 years. For example, as permafrost melts and sea ice shrinks, plant distributions and animal migration patterns are changing, severely affecting culture.

  19. Teaching Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Donoghue, A.

    2011-09-01

    In giving public presentations about climate change, we face the barriers of mis-information in the political debate and lack of science literacy that extends to science phobia for some. In climate issues, the later problem is compounded by the fact that the science - reconstruction of past climate through the use of proxy sources, such as isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen - is complex, making it more challenging for general audiences. Also, the process of science, particularly peer review, is suspected by some to be a way of keeping science orthodox instead of keeping it honest. I approach these barriers by focusing on the data and the fact that the data have been carefully acquired over decades and centuries by dedicated people with no political agenda. I have taught elderhostel courses twice and have given many public talks on this topic. Thus I have experience in this area to share with others. I would also like to learn of others' approaches to the vast amount of scientific information and getting past the politics. A special interest group on climate change will allow those of us to speak on this important topic to share how we approach both the science and the politics of this issue.

  20. Perception of climate change.

    PubMed

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto

    2012-09-11

    "Climate dice," describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons, have become more and more "loaded" in the past 30 y, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3σ) warmer than the climatology of the 1951-1980 base period. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth's surface during the base period, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing, climate change. PMID:22869707

  1. Perception of climate change.

    PubMed

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto

    2012-09-11

    "Climate dice," describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons, have become more and more "loaded" in the past 30 y, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3σ) warmer than the climatology of the 1951-1980 base period. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth's surface during the base period, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing, climate change.

  2. Projections of Future Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Cubasch, U.; Meehl , G.; Boer, G. J.; Stouffer, Ron; Dix, M.; Noda, A.; Senior, C. A.; Raper, S.; Yap, K. S.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Brinkop, S.; Claussen, M.; Collins, M.; Evans, J.; Fischer-Bruns, I.; Flato, G.; Fyfe, J. C.; Ganopolski, A.; Gregory, J. M.; Hu, Z. Z.; Joos, Fortunat; Knutson, T.; Knutti, R.; Landsea, C.; Mearns, L. O.; Milly, C.; Mitchell, J. F.; Nozawa, T.; Paeth, H.; Raisanen, J.; Sausen, R.; Smith, Steven J.; Stocker, T.; Timmermann, A.; Ulbrich, U.; Weaver, A.; Wegner, J.; Whetton, P.; Wigley, T. M.; Winton, M.; Zwiers, F.; Kim, J. W.; Stone, J.

    2001-10-01

    Contents: Executive Summary 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Climate and Climate Change 9.3 Projections of Climate Change 9.4 General Summary Appendix 9.1: Tuning of a Simple Climate Model toAOGCM Results References

  3. Confronting Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mintzer, Irving M.

    1992-06-01

    This book, which was published in time for the Earth Summit in Brazil in June 1992, is likely to make a huge impact on the political and economic agendas of international policy makers. It summarizes the scientific findings of Working Group I of the IPCC in the first part of the book. While acknowledging the uncertainties in subsequent chapters, it challenges and expands upon the existing views on how we should tackle the problems of climate change.

  4. [Keynote address: Climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Forrister, D.

    1994-12-31

    Broadly speaking, the climate issue is moving from talk to action both in the United States and internationally. While few nations have adopted strict controls or stiff new taxes, a number of them are developing action plans that are making clear their intention to ramp up activity between now and the year 2000... and beyond. There are sensible, economically efficient strategies to be undertaken in the near term that offer the possibility, in many countries, to avoid more draconian measures. These strategies are by-and-large the same measures that the National Academy of Sciences recommended in a 1991 report called, Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming. The author thinks the Academy`s most important policy contribution was how it recommended the nations act in the face of uncertain science and high risks--that cost effective measures are adopted as cheap insurance... just as nations insure against other high risk, low certainty possibilities, like catastrophic health insurance, auto insurance, and fire insurance. This insurance theme is still right. First, the author addresses how the international climate change negotiations are beginning to produce insurance measures. Next, the author will discuss some of the key issues to watch in those negotiations that relate to longer-term insurance. And finally, the author will report on progress in the United States on the climate insurance plan--The President`s Climate Action Plan.

  5. Climate changes, shifting ranges

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Romanach, Stephanie

    2015-01-01

    Even a fleeting mention of the Everglades conjures colorful images of alligators, panthers, flamingos, and manatees. Over the centuries, this familiar cast of characters has become synonymous with life in south Florida. But the workings of a changing climate have the potential to significantly alter the menagerie of animals that call this area home. Global projections suggest south Florida wildlife will need to contend with higher temperatures, drier conditions, and rising seas in the years ahead. Recent modeling efforts shed new light on the potential outcomes these changes may have for threatened and endangered species in the area.

  6. Designing Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffith, P. C.; ORyan, C.

    2012-12-01

    In a time when sensationalism rules the online world, it is best to keep things short. The people of the online world are not passing back and forth lengthy articles, but rather brief glimpses of complex information. This is the target audience we attempt to educate. Our challenge is then to attack not only ignorance, but also apathy toward global climate change, while conforming to popular modes of learning. When communicating our scientific material, it was difficult to determine what level of information was appropriate for our audience, especially with complex subject matter. Our unconventional approach for communicating the carbon crisis as it applies to global climate change caters to these 'recreational learners'. Using story-telling devices acquired from Carolyne's biomedical art background coupled with Peter's extensive knowledge of carbon cycle and ecosystems science, we developed a dynamic series of illustrations that capture the attention of a callous audience. Adapting complex carbon cycle and climate science into comic-book-style animations creates a channel between artist, scientist, and the general public. Brief scenes of information accompanied by text provide a perfect platform for visual learners, as well as fresh portrayals of stale material for the jaded. In this way art transcends the barriers of the cerebral and the abstract, paving the road to understanding.;

  7. Understanding recent climate change.

    PubMed

    Serreze, Mark C

    2010-02-01

    The Earth's atmosphere has a natural greenhouse effect, without which the global mean surface temperature would be about 33 degrees C lower and life would not be possible. Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases in trace amounts. This has enhanced the greenhouse effect, resulting in surface warming. Were it not for the partly offsetting effects of increased aerosol concentrations, the increase in global mean surface temperature over the past 100 years would be larger than observed. Continued surface warming through the 21st century is inevitable and will likely have widespread ecological impacts. The magnitude and rate of warming for the global average will be largely dictated by the strength and direction of climate feedbacks, thermal inertia of the oceans, the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, and aerosol concentrations. Because of regional expressions of climate feedbacks, changes in atmospheric circulation, and a suite of other factors, the magnitude and rate of warming and changes in other key climate elements, such as precipitation, will not be uniform across the planet. For example, due to loss of its floating sea-ice cover, the Arctic will warm the most.

  8. Climatic change on Mars.

    PubMed

    Sagan, C; Toon, O B; Gierasch, P J

    1973-09-14

    The equatorial sinuous channels on Mars detected by Mariner 9 point to a past epoch of higher pressures and abundant liquid water. Advective instability of the martian atmosphere permits two stable climates-one close to present conditions, the other at a pressure of the order of 1 bar depending on the quantity of buried volatiles. Variations in the obliquity of Mars, the luminosity of the sun, and the albedo of the polar caps each appear capable of driving the instability between a current ice age and more clement conditions. Obliquity driving alone implies that epochs of much higher and of much lower pressure must have characterized martian history. Climatic change on Mars may have important meteorological, geological, and biological implications.

  9. Preventing adverse changes of work with age.

    PubMed

    Welford, A T

    1988-01-01

    Many people who change their jobs in middle age have been found to move to less skilled and lower paid work. Two methods of preventing this are discussed. First, training by methods designed to take account of learning difficulties in those past normal apprenticeship age has, when sensitively applied, been successful in equipping people with new skills. Second, applying principles of ergonomics--"fitting the job to the worker"--could often remove key difficulties for older workers and thus prevent the need for moves resulting from failing capacity. This could also open up a wider range of potential jobs for those who have to move by reason of redundancy or technological change. It is emphasized that both the training and ergonomic approaches need to be based on, and can contribute significantly to, fundamental research on performance in relation to age.

  10. Agriculture and climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Abelson, P.H.

    1992-07-03

    How will increases in levels of CO{sub 2} and changes in temperature affect food production A recently issued report analyzes prospects for US agriculture 1990 to 2030. The report, prepared by a distinguished Task Force, first projects the evolution of agriculture assuming increased levels of CO{sub 2} but no climate change. Then it deals with effects of climate change, followed by a discussion of how greenhouse emissions might be diminished by agriculture. Economic and policy matters are also covered. How the climate would respond to more greenhouse gases is uncertain. If temperatures were higher, there would be more evaporation and more precipitation. Where would the rain fall That is a good question. Weather in a particular locality is not determined by global averages. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s could be repeated at its former site or located in another region such as the present Corn Belt. But depending on the realities at a given place, farmers have demonstrated great flexibility in choosing what they may grow. Their flexibility has been increased by the numerous varieties of seeds of major crops that are now available, each having different characteristics such as drought resistance and temperature tolerance. In past, agriculture has contributed about 5% of US greenhouse gases. Two large components have involved emissions of CO{sub 2} from farm machinery and from oxidation of organic matter in soil due to tillage. Use of diesel fuel and more efficient machinery has reduced emissions from that source by 40%. In some areas changed tillage practices are now responsible for returning carbon to the soil. The report identifies an important potential for diminishing net US emissions of CO{sub 2} by growth and utilization of biomass. Large areas are already available that could be devoted to energy crops.

  11. Insects and climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Elias, S.A. )

    1991-09-01

    In this article the author describes some of the significant late glacial and Holocene changes that occurred in the Rocky Mountains, including the regional extirpation of certain beetle species. The fossil data presented here summarize what is known about regional insect responses to climate change in terms of species stability and geographic distribution. To minimize potential problems of species interactions (i.e., insect-host plant relationships, host-parasite relationships, and other interactions that tie a particular insect species' distribution to that of another organism), only predators and scavengers are discussed. These insects respond most rapidly to environmental changes, because for the most part they are not tied to any particular type of vegetation.

  12. Bahamians and Climate Change: An Analysis of Risk Perception and Climate Change Literacy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neely, R.; Owens, M. A.

    2011-12-01

    The Commonwealth of the Bahamas is forecasted to be adversely impacted by the effects of climate change. This presentation will present the results of an assessment of the risk perception toward climate change and climate change literacy among Bahamians. 499 Bahamians from the health care and hospitality industries participated in surveys and/or focus groups and three (3) areas of climate change literacy (attitude, behavior and knowledge) were analyzed as well as risk perception. In general, 1) Bahamians demonstrated an elementary understanding of the underlying causes of climate change, 2) possessed positive attitudes toward adopting new climate change policies, and 3) are already adjusting their behaviors in light of the current predictions. This research also resulted in the development of a model of the relationships between the climate literacy subscales (attitude, behavior and knowledge) and risk perception. This study also examined information sources and their impacts on climate change literacy. As the source of information is important in assessing the quality of the information, participants also identified the source(s) of most of their climate change information. The TV news was cited as the most common source for climate change information among Bahamians. As there is limited active research generating specific climate change information in the Bahamas, all the information Bahamians receive as it pertains to climate change is generated abroad. As a result, Bahamians must decipher through to make sense of it on an individual level. From the focus groups, many of the participants have been able to view possible changes through a cultural lens and are willing to make adjustments to maintain the uniqueness and viability of the Bahamas and to preserve it for generations. Continued study of Bahamians' climate change literacy will inform adaption and mitigation policy as well as individual action.

  13. Global climate change and children's health.

    PubMed

    Shea, Katherine M

    2007-11-01

    There is broad scientific consensus that Earth's climate is warming rapidly and at an accelerating rate. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, are very likely (>90% probability) to be the main cause of this warming. Climate-sensitive changes in ecosystems are already being observed, and fundamental, potentially irreversible, ecological changes may occur in the coming decades. Conservative environmental estimates of the impact of climate changes that are already in process indicate that they will result in numerous health effects to children. The nature and extent of these changes will be greatly affected by actions taken or not taken now at the global level. Physicians have written on the projected effects of climate change on public health, but little has been written specifically on anticipated effects of climate change on children's health. Children represent a particularly vulnerable group that is likely to suffer disproportionately from both direct and indirect adverse health effects of climate change. Pediatric health care professionals should understand these threats, anticipate their effects on children's health, and participate as children's advocates for strong mitigation and adaptation strategies now. Any solutions that address climate change must be developed within the context of overall sustainability (the use of resources by the current generation to meet current needs while ensuring that future generations will be able to meet their needs). Pediatric health care professionals can be leaders in a move away from a traditional focus on disease prevention to a broad, integrated focus on sustainability as synonymous with health. This policy statement is supported by a technical report that examines in some depth the nature of the problem of climate change, likely effects on children's health as a result of climate change, and the critical importance of responding promptly and aggressively to reduce activities that are contributing to

  14. Global climate change and children's health.

    PubMed

    Shea, Katherine M

    2007-11-01

    There is broad scientific consensus that Earth's climate is warming rapidly and at an accelerating rate. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, are very likely (>90% probability) to be the main cause of this warming. Climate-sensitive changes in ecosystems are already being observed, and fundamental, potentially irreversible, ecological changes may occur in the coming decades. Conservative environmental estimates of the impact of climate changes that are already in process indicate that they will result in numerous health effects to children. The nature and extent of these changes will be greatly affected by actions taken or not taken now at the global level. Physicians have written on the projected effects of climate change on public health, but little has been written specifically on anticipated effects of climate change on children's health. Children represent a particularly vulnerable group that is likely to suffer disproportionately from both direct and indirect adverse health effects of climate change. Pediatric health care professionals should understand these threats, anticipate their effects on children's health, and participate as children's advocates for strong mitigation and adaptation strategies now. Any solutions that address climate change must be developed within the context of overall sustainability (the use of resources by the current generation to meet current needs while ensuring that future generations will be able to meet their needs). Pediatric health care professionals can be leaders in a move away from a traditional focus on disease prevention to a broad, integrated focus on sustainability as synonymous with health. This policy statement is supported by a technical report that examines in some depth the nature of the problem of climate change, likely effects on children's health as a result of climate change, and the critical importance of responding promptly and aggressively to reduce activities that are contributing to

  15. Ruminants, climate change and climate policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ripple, William J.; Smith, Pete; Haberl, Helmut; Montzka, Stephen A.; McAlpine, Clive; Boucher, Douglas H.

    2014-01-01

    Greenhouse gas emissions from ruminant meat production are significant. Reductions in global ruminant numbers could make a substantial contribution to climate change mitigation goals and yield important social and environmental co-benefits.

  16. Climate Change on Mars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haberle, R. M.; Cuzzi, Jeffrey N. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    Today, Mars is cold and dry. With a 7 mbar mean surface pressure, its thin predominantly CO2 atmosphere is not capable of raising global mean surface temperatures significantly above its 217K effective radiating temperature, and the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is equivalent to a global ocean only 10 microns deep. Has Mars always been in such a deep freeze? There are several lines of evidence that suggest it has not. First, there are the valley networks which are found throughout the heavily cratered terrains. These features are old (3.8 Gyr) and appear to require liquid water to form. A warm climate early in Mars' history has often been invoked to explain them, but the precise conditions required to achieve this have yet to be determined. Second, some of the features seen in orbiter images of the surface have been interpreted in terms of glacial activity associated with an active hydrological cycle some several billion years ago. This interpretation is controversial as it requires the release of enormous quantities of ground water and enough greenhouse warming to raise temperatures to the melting point. Finally, there are the layered terrains that characterize both polar regions. These terrains are geologically young (10 Myr) and are believed to have formed by the slow and steady deposition of dust and water ice from the atmosphere. The individual layers result from the modulation of the deposition rate which is driven by changes in Mars' orbital parameters. The ongoing research into each of these areas of Martian climate change will be reviewed, and similarities to the Earth's climate system will be noted.

  17. Permafrost and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Basnet, S.; Shahroudi, N.

    2012-12-01

    This paper examines the effects of climate change on Permafrost. Climate change has been shown to have a global correlation with decreased snow cover in high latitudes. In the current research station and satellite data were used to detect the location of permafrost. Permafrost is dependent on the temperature of the ground surface. Air temperature and snow cover from Integrated Surface Database (ISD) downloaded from National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) were observed for six consecutive years (1999-2004). The research was carried out over the entire globe to study the trend between fluctuating temperature and snow cover. Number of days with temperature below zero (freezing) and above zero (melting) was counted over a 6-year period. It was observed that each year the area of ice cover decreased by 0.3% in the Northern Hemisphere; a 1% increase in air temperature was also observed. Furthermore, the results from station data for snow cover and air temperature were compared with the snow cover and skin temperature from the satellite data. The skin temperature was retrieved from infrared (IR) radiance at International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and the snow cover is derived from visible satellite data at The National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Both dataset projected that the higher latitudes had the highest number of days with temperature below zero degree Celsius and these locations will be able to house permafrost. In order to improve the data quality as well as for more accurate results, in the future ISD data and satellite skin temperature will be analyzed for longer period of time (1979-2011) and (1983-2007) respectively also, two additional station data will be studied. The two datasets for future studies are Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) and International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS). The results outputted by

  18. Communicating Climate Change (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mann, M. E.

    2009-12-01

    I will discuss the various challenges scientists must confront in efforts to communicate the science and implications of climate change to the public. Among these challenges is the stiff headwind we must fight of a concerted disinformation effort designed to confuse the public about the nature of our scientific understanding of the problem and the reality of the underlying societal threat. We also must fight the legacy of the public’s perception of the scientist. That is to say, we must strive to communicate in plainspoken language that neither insults the intelligence of our audience, nor hopelessly loses them in jargon and science-speak. And through all of this, we must maintain our composure and good humor even in the face of what we might consider the vilest of tactics by our opposition. When it comes to how best to get our message out to the broader public, I don’t pretend to have all of the answers. But I will share some insights and anecdotes that I have accumulated over the course of my own efforts to inform the public about the reality of climate change and the potential threat that it represents.

  19. Insurance in a climate of change.

    PubMed

    Mills, Evan

    2005-08-12

    Catastrophe insurance provides peace of mind and financial security. Climate change can have adverse impacts on insurance affordability and availability, potentially slowing the growth of the industry and shifting more of the burden to governments and individuals. Most forms of insurance are vulnerable, including property, liability, health, and life. It is incumbent on insurers, their regulators, and the policy community to develop a better grasp of the physical and business risks. Insurers are well positioned to participate in public-private initiatives to monitor loss trends, improve catastrophe modeling, address the causes of climate change, and prepare for and adapt to the impacts.

  20. Climate Change: Prospects for Nature

    SciTech Connect

    Thomas Lovejoy

    2008-03-12

    Thomas Lovejoy, President of The H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment, explores the impact of climate change on the natural world. He also discusses the implications of climate change for climate policy and natural resource management.

  1. Mitigating the Adverse Association of Transportation and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snow, M. M.; Snow, R. K.

    2008-05-01

    could be saved, and dependence on foreign oil would diminish leading to greater national security while mitigating climate change.

  2. Farmer Health and Adaptive Capacity in the Face of Climate Change and Variability. Part 1: Health as a Contributor to Adaptive Capacity and as an Outcome from Pressures Coping with Climate Related Adversities

    PubMed Central

    Berry, Helen L.; Hogan, Anthony; Ng, Suan Peng; Parkinson, Anne

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the role farmers’ health plays as an element of adaptive capacity. The study examines which of twenty aspects of adaptation may be related to overall health outcomes, controlling for demographic and on-farm-factors in health problems. The analysis is based on 3,993 farmers’ responses to a national survey of climate risk and adaptation. Hierarchical linear regression modelling was used examine the extent to which, in a multivariate analysis, the use of adaptive practices was predictively associated with self-assessed health, taking into account the farmer’s rating of whether their health was a barrier to undertaking farm work. We present two models, one excluding pre-existing health (model 1) and one including pre-existing health (model 2). The first model accounted for 21% of the variance. In this model better health was most strongly predicted by an absence of on-farm risk, greater financial viability, greater debt pressures, younger age and a desire to continue farming. Social capital (trust and reciprocity) was moderately associated with health as was the intention to adopt more sustainable practices. The second model (including the farmers’ health as a barrier to undertaking farm work) accounted for 43% of the variance. Better health outcomes were most strongly explained, in order of magnitude, by the absence of pre-existing health problems, greater access to social support, greater financial viability, greater debt pressures, a desire to continue farming and the condition of on-farm resources. Model 2 was a more parsimonious model (only nine predictors, compared with 15 in model 1), and explained twice as much variance in health outcomes. These results suggest that (i) pre-existing health problems are a very important factor to consider when designing adaptation programs and policies and (ii) these problems may mediate or modify the relationship between adaptation and health. PMID:22073027

  3. Farmer health and adaptive capacity in the face of climate change and variability. Part 1: Health as a contributor to adaptive capacity and as an outcome from pressures coping with climate related adversities.

    PubMed

    Berry, Helen L; Hogan, Anthony; Ng, Suan Peng; Parkinson, Anne

    2011-10-01

    This paper examines the role farmers' health plays as an element of adaptive capacity. The study examines which of twenty aspects of adaptation may be related to overall health outcomes, controlling for demographic and on-farm-factors in health problems. The analysis is based on 3,993 farmers' responses to a national survey of climate risk and adaptation. Hierarchical linear regression modelling was used examine the extent to which, in a multivariate analysis, the use of adaptive practices was predictively associated with self-assessed health, taking into account the farmer's rating of whether their health was a barrier to undertaking farm work. We present two models, one excluding pre-existing health (model 1) and one including pre-existing health (model 2). The first model accounted for 21% of the variance. In this model better health was most strongly predicted by an absence of on-farm risk, greater financial viability, greater debt pressures, younger age and a desire to continue farming. Social capital (trust and reciprocity) was moderately associated with health as was the intention to adopt more sustainable practices. The second model (including the farmers' health as a barrier to undertaking farm work) accounted for 43% of the variance. Better health outcomes were most strongly explained, in order of magnitude, by the absence of pre-existing health problems, greater access to social support, greater financial viability, greater debt pressures, a desire to continue farming and the condition of on-farm resources. Model 2 was a more parsimonious model (only nine predictors, compared with 15 in model 1), and explained twice as much variance in health outcomes. These results suggest that (i) pre-existing health problems are a very important factor to consider when designing adaptation programs and policies and (ii) these problems may mediate or modify the relationship between adaptation and health.

  4. Preparing for climate change.

    PubMed

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and

  5. Climate variability, climate change, and fisheries

    SciTech Connect

    Glantz, M.H.

    1992-01-01

    This book contains 15 case studies of the ups and downs of fisheries. Each author focuses on the uncertainties of forecasting for fisheries and offers conclusions on the possible impacts of climatic change. Problems of forecasting for fisheries discussed in the book include the following: inadequate models; alterations in industrial structures;climatic events;habitat loss; interrelationships among life history, industry, society, and ecological processes; sociopolitical factors; predatory-parasitic species irruptions;climatic oceanographic factors; international fisheries politics and technology; large scale fluctuations in a coastal fisheries. The book presents the array of problems faced by scientists, fishery managers, and policy makers, and summarizes with general conclusions.

  6. Conflict in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carleton, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.

    2016-05-01

    A growing body of research illuminates the role that changes in climate have had on violent conflict and social instability in the recent past. Across a diversity of contexts, high temperatures and irregular rainfall have been causally linked to a range of conflict outcomes. These findings can be paired with climate model output to generate projections of the impact future climate change may have on conflicts such as crime and civil war. However, there are large degrees of uncertainty in such projections, arising from (i) the statistical uncertainty involved in regression analysis, (ii) divergent climate model predictions, and (iii) the unknown ability of human societies to adapt to future climate change. In this article, we review the empirical evidence of the climate-conflict relationship, provide insight into the likely extent and feasibility of adaptation to climate change as it pertains to human conflict, and discuss new methods that can be used to provide projections that capture these three sources of uncertainty.

  7. Impact of climate change on elder health.

    PubMed

    Carnes, Bruce A; Staats, David; Willcox, Bradley J

    2014-09-01

    Demographers predict human life expectancy will continue to increase over the coming century. These forecasts are based on two critical assumptions: advances in medical technology will continue apace and the environment that sustains us will remain unchanged. The consensus of the scientific community is that human activity contributes to global climate change. That change will degrade air and water quality, and global temperature could rise 11.5°F by 2100. If nothing is done to alter this climatic trajectory, humans will be confronted by a broad spectrum of radical environmental challenges. Historically, children and the elderly adults account for most of the death toll during times of severe environmental stress. This article makes an assessment from a geriatric viewpoint of the adverse health consequences that global climate change will bring to the older segments of future populations in the United States. PMID:24158763

  8. Impact of climate change on elder health.

    PubMed

    Carnes, Bruce A; Staats, David; Willcox, Bradley J

    2014-09-01

    Demographers predict human life expectancy will continue to increase over the coming century. These forecasts are based on two critical assumptions: advances in medical technology will continue apace and the environment that sustains us will remain unchanged. The consensus of the scientific community is that human activity contributes to global climate change. That change will degrade air and water quality, and global temperature could rise 11.5°F by 2100. If nothing is done to alter this climatic trajectory, humans will be confronted by a broad spectrum of radical environmental challenges. Historically, children and the elderly adults account for most of the death toll during times of severe environmental stress. This article makes an assessment from a geriatric viewpoint of the adverse health consequences that global climate change will bring to the older segments of future populations in the United States.

  9. Impact of Climate Change on Elder Health

    PubMed Central

    Staats, David; Willcox, Bradley J.

    2014-01-01

    Demographers predict human life expectancy will continue to increase over the coming century. These forecasts are based on two critical assumptions: advances in medical technology will continue apace and the environment that sustains us will remain unchanged. The consensus of the scientific community is that human activity contributes to global climate change. That change will degrade air and water quality, and global temperature could rise 11.5°F by 2100. If nothing is done to alter this climatic trajectory, humans will be confronted by a broad spectrum of radical environmental challenges. Historically, children and the elderly adults account for most of the death toll during times of severe environmental stress. This article makes an assessment from a geriatric viewpoint of the adverse health consequences that global climate change will bring to the older segments of future populations in the United States. PMID:24158763

  10. Climate change and marine plankton.

    PubMed

    Hays, Graeme C; Richardson, Anthony J; Robinson, Carol

    2005-06-01

    Understanding how climate change will affect the planet is a key issue worldwide. Questions concerning the pace and impacts of climate change are thus central to many ecological and biogeochemical studies, and addressing the consequences of climate change is now high on the list of priorities for funding agencies. Here, we review the interactions between climate change and plankton communities, focusing on systematic changes in plankton community structure, abundance, distribution and phenology over recent decades. We examine the potential socioeconomic impacts of these plankton changes, such as the effects of bottom-up forcing on commercially exploited fish stocks (i.e. plankton as food for fish). We also consider the crucial roles that plankton might have in dictating the future pace of climate change via feedback mechanisms responding to elevated atmospheric CO(2) levels. An important message emerges from this review: ongoing plankton monitoring programmes worldwide will act as sentinels to identify future changes in marine ecosystems.

  11. Cinematic climate change, a promising perspective on climate change communication.

    PubMed

    Sakellari, Maria

    2015-10-01

    Previous research findings display that after having seen popular climate change films, people became more concerned, more motivated and more aware of climate change, but changes in behaviors were short-term. This article performs a meta-analysis of three popular climate change films, The Day after Tomorrow (2005), An Inconvenient Truth (2006), and The Age of Stupid (2009), drawing on research in social psychology, human agency, and media effect theory in order to formulate a rationale about how mass media communication shapes our everyday life experience. This article highlights the factors with which science blends in the reception of the three climate change films and expands the range of options considered in order to encourage people to engage in climate change mitigation actions.

  12. Improving public health by tackling climate change

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Across the world, climate change is now responsible for substantial mortality and morbidity, through direct effects on health and also by threatening the determinants of health. This commentary argues that adaptation policies to enhance resilience to adverse climate events are important, but must be coupled with determined action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The prize is synergy: many such policies, for example concerning food, travel and community engagement, can simultaneously improve physical and mental health. This is a commentary on http://www.ijhpr.org/content/2/1/23. PMID:23773290

  13. Expert credibility in climate change.

    PubMed

    Anderegg, William R L; Prall, James W; Harold, Jacob; Schneider, Stephen H

    2010-07-01

    Although preliminary estimates from published literature and expert surveys suggest striking agreement among climate scientists on the tenets of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), the American public expresses substantial doubt about both the anthropogenic cause and the level of scientific agreement underpinning ACC. A broad analysis of the climate scientist community itself, the distribution of credibility of dissenting researchers relative to agreeing researchers, and the level of agreement among top climate experts has not been conducted and would inform future ACC discussions. Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97-98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field surveyed here support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.

  14. Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V.; Bradley, Raymond S.; Diaz, Henry F.

    2011-08-01

    Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it's important to provide regional climate change information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation and also in capturing regional climate features such as the bimodal annual cycle of precipitation and the Caribbean low-level jet. A variety of climate regimes within the model domain are also better identified in the regional model simulation due to improved resolution of topographic features. Although, the model suffers from large precipitation biases, it shows improvements over the coarse-resolution driving model in simulating precipitation amounts. The model shows a dry bias in the wet season and a wet bias in the dry season suggesting that it's unable to capture the full range of precipitation variability. Projected warming under the A2 scenario is higher in the wet season than that in the dry season with the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing highest warming. A large reduction in precipitation in the wet season is projected for the region, whereas parts of Central America that receive a considerable amount of moisture in the form of orographic precipitation show significant decreases in precipitation in the dry season. Projected climatic changes can have detrimental impacts on biodiversity as they are spatially similar, but far greater in magnitude, than those observed during the El Niño events in recent decades that adversely affected species in the region.

  15. Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate

  16. Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

    2014-12-01

    Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

  17. Climate Change and National Security

    SciTech Connect

    Malone, Elizabeth L.

    2013-02-01

    Climate change is increasingly recognized as having national security implications, which has prompted dialogue between the climate change and national security communities – with resultant advantages and differences. Climate change research has proven useful to the national security community sponsors in several ways. It has opened security discussions to consider climate as well as political factors in studies of the future. It has encouraged factoring in the stresses placed on societies by climate changes (of any kind) to help assess the potential for state stability. And it has shown that, changes such as increased heat, more intense storms, longer periods without rain, and earlier spring onset call for building climate resilience as part of building stability. For the climate change research community, studies from a national security point of view have revealed research lacunae, for example, such as the lack of usable migration studies. This has also pushed the research community to consider second- and third-order impacts of climate change, such as migration and state stability, which broadens discussion of future impacts beyond temperature increases, severe storms, and sea level rise; and affirms the importance of governance in responding to these changes. The increasing emphasis in climate change science toward research in vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation also frames what the intelligence and defense communities need to know, including where there are dependencies and weaknesses that may allow climate change impacts to result in security threats and where social and economic interventions can prevent climate change impacts and other stressors from resulting in social and political instability or collapse.

  18. Climate change, conflict and health.

    PubMed

    Bowles, Devin C; Butler, Colin D; Morisetti, Neil

    2015-10-01

    Future climate change is predicted to diminish essential natural resource availability in many regions and perhaps globally. The resulting scarcity of water, food and livelihoods could lead to increasingly desperate populations that challenge governments, enhancing the risk of intra- and interstate conflict. Defence establishments and some political scientists view climate change as a potential threat to peace. While the medical literature increasingly recognises climate change as a fundamental health risk, the dimension of climate change-associated conflict has so far received little attention, despite its profound health implications. Many analysts link climate change with a heightened risk of conflict via causal pathways which involve diminishing or changing resource availability. Plausible consequences include: increased frequency of civil conflict in developing countries; terrorism, asymmetric warfare, state failure; and major regional conflicts. The medical understanding of these threats is inadequate, given the scale of health implications. The medical and public health communities have often been reluctant to interpret conflict as a health issue. However, at times, medical workers have proven powerful and effective peace advocates, most notably with regard to nuclear disarmament. The public is more motivated to mitigate climate change when it is framed as a health issue. Improved medical understanding of the association between climate change and conflict could strengthen mitigation efforts and increase cooperation to cope with the climate change that is now inevitable. PMID:26432813

  19. Climate change, conflict and health.

    PubMed

    Bowles, Devin C; Butler, Colin D; Morisetti, Neil

    2015-10-01

    Future climate change is predicted to diminish essential natural resource availability in many regions and perhaps globally. The resulting scarcity of water, food and livelihoods could lead to increasingly desperate populations that challenge governments, enhancing the risk of intra- and interstate conflict. Defence establishments and some political scientists view climate change as a potential threat to peace. While the medical literature increasingly recognises climate change as a fundamental health risk, the dimension of climate change-associated conflict has so far received little attention, despite its profound health implications. Many analysts link climate change with a heightened risk of conflict via causal pathways which involve diminishing or changing resource availability. Plausible consequences include: increased frequency of civil conflict in developing countries; terrorism, asymmetric warfare, state failure; and major regional conflicts. The medical understanding of these threats is inadequate, given the scale of health implications. The medical and public health communities have often been reluctant to interpret conflict as a health issue. However, at times, medical workers have proven powerful and effective peace advocates, most notably with regard to nuclear disarmament. The public is more motivated to mitigate climate change when it is framed as a health issue. Improved medical understanding of the association between climate change and conflict could strengthen mitigation efforts and increase cooperation to cope with the climate change that is now inevitable.

  20. Costing climate change.

    PubMed

    Reay, David S

    2002-12-15

    Debate over how, when, and even whether man-made greenhouse-gas emissions should be controlled has grown in intensity even faster than the levels of greenhouse gas in our atmosphere. Many argue that the costs involved in reducing emissions outweigh the potential economic damage of human-induced climate change. Here, existing cost-benefit analyses of greenhouse-gas reduction policies are examined, with a view to establishing whether any such global reductions are currently worthwhile. Potential for, and cost of, cutting our own individual greenhouse-gas emissions is then assessed. I find that many abatement strategies are able to deliver significant emission reductions at little or no net cost. Additionally, I find that there is huge potential for individuals to simultaneously cut their own greenhouse-gas emissions and save money. I conclude that cuts in global greenhouse-gas emissions, such as those of the Kyoto Protocol, cannot be justifiably dismissed as posing too large an economic burden.

  1. Schneider lecture: From climate change impacts to climate change risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Field, C. B.

    2014-12-01

    Steve Schneider was a strong proponent of considering the entire range of possible climate-change outcomes. He wrote and spoke frequently about the importance of low probability/high consequence outcomes as well as most likely outcomes. He worked tirelessly on communicating the risks from overlapping stressors. Technical and conceptual issues have made it difficult for Steve's vision to reach maturity in mainstream climate-change research, but the picture is changing rapidly. The concept of climate-change risk, considering both probability and consequence, is central to the recently completed IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and the concept frames much of the discussion about future research agendas. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks is important for five core reasons. First, conceptualizing the issue as being about probabilities builds a bridge between current climate variability and future climate change. Second, a formulation based on risks highlights the fact that climate impacts occur primarily in extremes. For historical variability and future impacts, the real concern is the conditions under which things break and systems fail, namely, in the extremes. Third, framing the challenge as one of managing risks puts a strong emphasis on exploring the full range of possible outcomes, including low-probability, high/consequence outcomes. Fourth, explaining climate change as a problem in managing risks links climate change to a wide range of sophisticated risk management tools and strategies that underpin much of modern society. Fifth, the concept of climate change as a challenge in managing risks helps cement the understanding that climate change is a threat multiplier, adding new dimensions and complexity to existing and emerging problems. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks creates an important but difficult agenda for research. The emphasis needs to shift from most likely outcomes to most risky outcomes, considering the full

  2. Geomorphic responses to climatic change

    SciTech Connect

    Bull, W.B.

    1991-01-01

    The primary focus of this book is the response of landscapes to Pleistocene and Holocene climatic changes. During the past 40 ky the global climate has varied from full-glacial to interglacial. Global temperatures decreased between 40 and 20 ka culminating in full-glacial climatic conditions at 20 ka. This resulted in a sea level decline of 130 m. Only 8 to 14 ky later the global temperature had reversed itself and the climate was the warmest of the past 120 ky. These dramatic changes in climate imposed significant controls on fluvial systems and impacted land forms and whole landscapes worldwide. Chapter 1, Conceptual Models for Changing landscapes, presents numerous concepts related to erosional and depositional processes controlling landscape development. Each of the next four chapters of the book, 2, 3, 4, and 5, examine different aspects of climatic change on fluvial systems. The conceptual models are used to analyze landscape response in four different climatic and geologic settings. In each setting the present and past climatic conditions, the climatically induced changes in vegetation and soil development, and geochronology are considered in assessing the influence of climatic changes on geomorphic processes. Chapter 2, investigates the influence of climatic change on the geomorphic processes operating in desert watersheds in the southwestern US and northern Mexico. The study sites for Chapter 3, are small desert drainage basins in the southwestern US and near the Sinai Peninsula in the Middle East. Chapter 4, investigates fill terraces in several drainage basins of the San Gabrial Mountains of the central Transverse Ranges of coastal southern California. The study site for Chapter 5 is the Charwell River watershed in the Seaward Kaikoura Range of New Zealand. Chapter 6, Difference Responses of Arid and Humid Fluvial Systems, compares the effects of changing climates in basins that range from extremely arid to humid.

  3. Ground water and climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Döll, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F.P.; MacDonald, Alan; Fan, Ying; Maxwell, Reed M.; Yechieli, Yossi; Gurdak, Jason J.; Allen, Diana M.; Shamsudduha, Mohammad; Hiscock, Kevin; Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger

    2012-01-01

    As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

  4. Ground Water and Climate Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; MacDonald, Alan; Fan, Ying; Maxwell, Reed M.; Yechieli, Yossi; Gurdak, Jason J.; Allen, Diana M.; Shamsudduha, Mohammad; Hiscock, Kevin; Yeh, Pat J. -F; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger

    2013-01-01

    As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

  5. Teaching about Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heffron, Susan Gallagher; Valmond, Kharra

    2011-01-01

    Students are exposed to many different media reports about global climate change. Movies such as "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Ice Age" are examples of instances when movie producers have sought to capture the attention of audiences by augmenting the challenges that climate change poses. Students may receive information from a wide range of media…

  6. Generating Arguments about Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Golden, Barry; Grooms, Jonathon; Sampson, Victor; Oliveri, Robin

    2012-01-01

    This unit is a different and fun way to engage students with an extremely important topic, climate change, which cuts across scientific and nonscientific disciplines. While climate change itself may not be listed in the curriculum of every science class, the authors contend that such a unit is appropriate for virtually any science curriculum.…

  7. Congress Assesses Climate Change Paleodata

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bierly, Eugene W.

    2006-08-01

    The `hockey stick' graph of surfacetemperature change overthe past millennium and implicationsfor climate change assessments wasthe subject of two hearings held by the U.S.House of Representatives Energy and CommerceSubcommittee on Oversight andInvestigations, on 19 and 27 July. These hearingsmarked only the second time that thecommittee has discussed climate issuessince George W. Bush became president.

  8. Climate change, responsibility, and justice.

    PubMed

    Jamieson, Dale

    2010-09-01

    In this paper I make the following claims. In order to see anthropogenic climate change as clearly involving moral wrongs and global injustices, we will have to revise some central concepts in these domains. Moreover, climate change threatens another value ("respect for nature") that cannot easily be taken up by concerns of global justice or moral responsibility. PMID:19847671

  9. Climate change refugia as a tool for climate adaptation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change so as to increase persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources, are considered as potential adaptation options in the face of anthropogenic climate change. In a collaboration ...

  10. Food security under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hertel, Thomas W.

    2016-01-01

    Using food prices to assess climate change impacts on food security is misleading. Differential impacts on income require a broader measure of household well-being, such as changes in absolute poverty.

  11. Malaria ecology and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCord, G. C.

    2016-05-01

    Understanding the costs that climate change will exact on society is crucial to devising an appropriate policy response. One of the channels through while climate change will affect human society is through vector-borne diseases whose epidemiology is conditioned by ambient ecology. This paper introduces the literature on malaria, its cost on society, and the consequences of climate change to the physics community in hopes of inspiring synergistic research in the area of climate change and health. It then demonstrates the use of one ecological indicator of malaria suitability to provide an order-of-magnitude assessment of how climate change might affect the malaria burden. The average of Global Circulation Model end-of-century predictions implies a 47% average increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease in today's malarious areas, significantly complicating malaria elimination efforts.

  12. Climate change and marine vertebrates.

    PubMed

    Sydeman, William J; Poloczanska, Elvira; Reed, Thomas E; Thompson, Sarah Ann

    2015-11-13

    Climate change impacts on vertebrates have consequences for marine ecosystem structures and services. We review marine fish, mammal, turtle, and seabird responses to climate change and discuss their potential for adaptation. Direct and indirect responses are demonstrated from every ocean. Because of variation in research foci, observed responses differ among taxonomic groups (redistributions for fish, phenology for seabirds). Mechanisms of change are (i) direct physiological responses and (ii) climate-mediated predator-prey interactions. Regional-scale variation in climate-demographic functions makes range-wide population dynamics challenging to predict. The nexus of metabolism relative to ecosystem productivity and food webs appears key to predicting future effects on marine vertebrates. Integration of climate, oceanographic, ecosystem, and population models that incorporate evolutionary processes is needed to prioritize the climate-related conservation needs for these species. PMID:26564847

  13. Climate change and marine vertebrates.

    PubMed

    Sydeman, William J; Poloczanska, Elvira; Reed, Thomas E; Thompson, Sarah Ann

    2015-11-13

    Climate change impacts on vertebrates have consequences for marine ecosystem structures and services. We review marine fish, mammal, turtle, and seabird responses to climate change and discuss their potential for adaptation. Direct and indirect responses are demonstrated from every ocean. Because of variation in research foci, observed responses differ among taxonomic groups (redistributions for fish, phenology for seabirds). Mechanisms of change are (i) direct physiological responses and (ii) climate-mediated predator-prey interactions. Regional-scale variation in climate-demographic functions makes range-wide population dynamics challenging to predict. The nexus of metabolism relative to ecosystem productivity and food webs appears key to predicting future effects on marine vertebrates. Integration of climate, oceanographic, ecosystem, and population models that incorporate evolutionary processes is needed to prioritize the climate-related conservation needs for these species.

  14. Climate change adaptation strategies and mitigation policies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García Fernández, Cristina

    2015-04-01

    The pace of climate change and the consequent warming of the Earth's surface is increasing vulnerability and decreasing adaptive capacity. Achieving a successful adaptation depends on the development of technology, institutional organization, financing availability and the exchange of information. Populations living in arid and semi-arid zones, low-lying coastal areas, land with water shortages or at risk of overflow or small islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Due to increasing population density in sensitive areas, some regions have become more vulnerable to events such as storms, floods and droughts, like the river basins and coastal plains. Human activities have fragmented and increased the vulnerability of ecosystems, which limit both, their natural adaptation and the effectiveness of the measures adopted. Adaptation means to carry out the necessary modifications for society to adapt to new climatic conditions in order to reduce their vulnerability to climate change. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) and to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or face the consequences. Adaptation reduces the adverse impacts of climate change and enhance beneficial impacts, but will not prevent substantial cost that are produced by all damages. The performances require adaptation actions. These are defined and implemented at national, regional or local levels since many of the impacts and vulnerabilities depend on the particular economic, geographic and social circumstances of each country or region. We will present some adaptation strategies at national and local level and revise some cases of its implementation in several vulnerable areas. However, adaptation to climate change must be closely related to mitigation policies because the degree of change planned in different climatic variables is a function of the concentration levels that are achieved

  15. Climate change and dead zones.

    PubMed

    Altieri, Andrew H; Gedan, Keryn B

    2015-04-01

    Estuaries and coastal seas provide valuable ecosystem services but are particularly vulnerable to the co-occurring threats of climate change and oxygen-depleted dead zones. We analyzed the severity of climate change predicted for existing dead zones, and found that 94% of dead zones are in regions that will experience at least a 2 °C temperature increase by the end of the century. We then reviewed how climate change will exacerbate hypoxic conditions through oceanographic, ecological, and physiological processes. We found evidence that suggests numerous climate variables including temperature, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, precipitation, wind, and storm patterns will affect dead zones, and that each of those factors has the potential to act through multiple pathways on both oxygen availability and ecological responses to hypoxia. Given the variety and strength of the mechanisms by which climate change exacerbates hypoxia, and the rates at which climate is changing, we posit that climate change variables are contributing to the dead zone epidemic by acting synergistically with one another and with recognized anthropogenic triggers of hypoxia including eutrophication. This suggests that a multidisciplinary, integrated approach that considers the full range of climate variables is needed to track and potentially reverse the spread of dead zones.

  16. Climate change and dead zones.

    PubMed

    Altieri, Andrew H; Gedan, Keryn B

    2015-04-01

    Estuaries and coastal seas provide valuable ecosystem services but are particularly vulnerable to the co-occurring threats of climate change and oxygen-depleted dead zones. We analyzed the severity of climate change predicted for existing dead zones, and found that 94% of dead zones are in regions that will experience at least a 2 °C temperature increase by the end of the century. We then reviewed how climate change will exacerbate hypoxic conditions through oceanographic, ecological, and physiological processes. We found evidence that suggests numerous climate variables including temperature, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, precipitation, wind, and storm patterns will affect dead zones, and that each of those factors has the potential to act through multiple pathways on both oxygen availability and ecological responses to hypoxia. Given the variety and strength of the mechanisms by which climate change exacerbates hypoxia, and the rates at which climate is changing, we posit that climate change variables are contributing to the dead zone epidemic by acting synergistically with one another and with recognized anthropogenic triggers of hypoxia including eutrophication. This suggests that a multidisciplinary, integrated approach that considers the full range of climate variables is needed to track and potentially reverse the spread of dead zones. PMID:25385668

  17. Adapting agriculture to climate change.

    PubMed

    Howden, S Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

    2007-12-11

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.

  18. Adapting agriculture to climate change

    PubMed Central

    Howden, S. Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N.; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

    2007-01-01

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists. PMID:18077402

  19. [Infectious diseases and climate change].

    PubMed

    Valentiner-Branth, Palle; Glismann, Steffen Offersen; Mølbak, Kåre

    2009-10-26

    Climate changes will likely have an impact on the spectrum of infectious diseases in Europe. We may see an increase in vector-borne diseases, diseases spread by rodents such as Hantavirus, and food- and water-borne diseases. As the effects of climate changes are likely to occur gradually, a modern industrialised country such as Denmark will have the opportunity to adapt to the expected changes.

  20. Climatic change on Mars.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sagan, C.; Toon, O. B.; Gierasch, P. J.

    1973-01-01

    It is pointed out that Mars is the only known planet with a major atmospheric constituent condensable at typical surface temperatures. The temperatures range from 290 K at equatorial noon to a temperature at the cold pole of 145 K in polar winter. There may be three different periods of climatic variation on Mars. Aspects of reversible climatic instability might possibly explain the channels and other features suggestive of the extensive occurrence of liquid water on Mars. An aqueous epoch on Mars would have important biological and other geological implications. Putative Martian organisms which flourish in the aqueous epoch may now be in cryptobiotic repose.

  1. Impact on human health of climate changes.

    PubMed

    Franchini, Massimo; Mannucci, Pier Mannuccio

    2015-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that climate is rapidly changing. These changes, which are mainly driven by the dramatic increase of greenhouse gas emissions from anthropogenic activities, have the potential to affect human health in several ways. These include a global rise in average temperature, an increased frequency of heat waves, of weather events such as hurricanes, cyclones and drought periods, plus an altered distribution of allergens and vector-borne infectious diseases. The cardiopulmonary system and the gastrointestinal tract are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of global warming. Moreover, some infectious diseases and their animal vectors are influenced by climate changes, resulting in higher risk of typhus, cholera, malaria, dengue and West Nile virus infection. On the other hand, at mid latitudes warming may reduce the rate of diseases related to cold temperatures (such as pneumonia, bronchitis and arthritis), but these benefits are unlikely to rebalance the risks associated to warming. PMID:25582074

  2. Impact on human health of climate changes.

    PubMed

    Franchini, Massimo; Mannucci, Pier Mannuccio

    2015-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that climate is rapidly changing. These changes, which are mainly driven by the dramatic increase of greenhouse gas emissions from anthropogenic activities, have the potential to affect human health in several ways. These include a global rise in average temperature, an increased frequency of heat waves, of weather events such as hurricanes, cyclones and drought periods, plus an altered distribution of allergens and vector-borne infectious diseases. The cardiopulmonary system and the gastrointestinal tract are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of global warming. Moreover, some infectious diseases and their animal vectors are influenced by climate changes, resulting in higher risk of typhus, cholera, malaria, dengue and West Nile virus infection. On the other hand, at mid latitudes warming may reduce the rate of diseases related to cold temperatures (such as pneumonia, bronchitis and arthritis), but these benefits are unlikely to rebalance the risks associated to warming.

  3. Climate Change and Conceptual Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clark, David J.

    2013-01-01

    Global Warming ("GW") is easily one of the most pressing concerns of our time, and its solution will come about only through a change in human behavior. Compared to the residents of most other nations worldwide, Americans report lower acceptance of the realities of GW. In order to address this concern in a free society, U.S. residents…

  4. Climate change, wine, and conservation

    PubMed Central

    Hannah, Lee; Roehrdanz, Patrick R.; Ikegami, Makihiko; Shepard, Anderson V.; Shaw, M. Rebecca; Tabor, Gary; Zhi, Lu; Marquet, Pablo A.; Hijmans, Robert J.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects. PMID:23569231

  5. Climate change, wine, and conservation.

    PubMed

    Hannah, Lee; Roehrdanz, Patrick R; Ikegami, Makihiko; Shepard, Anderson V; Shaw, M Rebecca; Tabor, Gary; Zhi, Lu; Marquet, Pablo A; Hijmans, Robert J

    2013-04-23

    Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects. PMID:23569231

  6. Climate change, wine, and conservation.

    PubMed

    Hannah, Lee; Roehrdanz, Patrick R; Ikegami, Makihiko; Shepard, Anderson V; Shaw, M Rebecca; Tabor, Gary; Zhi, Lu; Marquet, Pablo A; Hijmans, Robert J

    2013-04-23

    Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects.

  7. Global climatic change on Mars.

    PubMed

    Kargel, J S; Strom, R G

    1996-11-01

    The authors examine evidence from Mariner and Viking probes of the Martian environment to support theories of a global climate change on Mars. Similarities between some geographical features on Earth and Mars are used to suggest a warmer climate on Mars in the past. An overview of planned Mars exploration missions is included.

  8. Prescient health care and future climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Hayes, R.L.; Hussain, S.T.

    1997-12-31

    For several years, a concerted effort has been underway to focus research attention upon the interplay between public health and the changing climate. In particular, this environmental health research has established that climate change, including global warming, will degrade or transform ecosystems and will adversely influence public health. Global human health will be affected in ways that differ from local toxicological and microbiological processes with which we are familiar. Also, clinical manifestations of these health effects will be both immediate and delayed. Research has indicated that human populations, faced with an inhospitable and intolerable climate, have two short term options humans may migrate to other more agreeable climates or may utilize adaptation strategies to offset harsh environmental conditions. Otherwise, we face mounting physiological stresses, risks of protracted illness, or the likelihood of death. Either of the former two viable options assumes that economic means are prioritized and that societal infrastructure exists to assure relief. Awareness and knowledge of existing conditions or climate-health developments are essential prerequisites for effective response to a changing environment.

  9. Uncertainty and global climate change research

    SciTech Connect

    Tonn, B.E.; Weiher, R.

    1994-06-01

    The Workshop on Uncertainty and Global Climate Change Research March 22--23, 1994, in Knoxville, Tennessee. This report summarizes the results and recommendations of the workshop. The purpose of the workshop was to examine in-depth the concept of uncertainty. From an analytical point of view, uncertainty is a central feature of global climate science, economics and decision making. The magnitude and complexity of uncertainty surrounding global climate change has made it quite difficult to answer even the most simple and important of questions-whether potentially costly action is required now to ameliorate adverse consequences of global climate change or whether delay is warranted to gain better information to reduce uncertainties. A major conclusion of the workshop is that multidisciplinary integrated assessments using decision analytic techniques as a foundation is key to addressing global change policy concerns. First, uncertainty must be dealt with explicitly and rigorously since it is and will continue to be a key feature of analysis and recommendations on policy questions for years to come. Second, key policy questions and variables need to be explicitly identified, prioritized, and their uncertainty characterized to guide the entire scientific, modeling, and policy analysis process. Multidisciplinary integrated assessment techniques and value of information methodologies are best suited for this task. In terms of timeliness and relevance of developing and applying decision analytic techniques, the global change research and policy communities are moving rapidly toward integrated approaches to research design and policy analysis.

  10. Natural and anthropogenic climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Ko, M.K.W.; Clough, S.A.; Molnar, G.I.; Iacono, M. ); Wang, W.C. State Univ. of New York, Albany, NY . Atmospheric Sciences Research Center)

    1992-03-01

    This report consists of two parts: (1) progress for the period 9/1/91--3/31/92 and (2) the plan for the remaining period 4/1/92--8/31/92. The project includes two tasks: atmospheric radiation and improvement of climate models to evaluate the climatic effects of radiation changes. The atmospheric radiation task includes four subtasks: (1) Intercomparison of Radiation Codes in Climate Models (ICRCCM), (2) analysis of the water vapor continuum using line-by-line calculations to develop a parameterization for use in climate models, (3) parameterization of longwave radiation and (4) climate/radiation interactions of desert aerosols. Our effort in this period is focused on the first three subtasks. The improvement of climate models to evaluate the subtasks: (1) general circulation model study and (2) 2- D model development and application.

  11. Cities lead on climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pancost, Richard D.

    2016-04-01

    The need to mitigate climate change opens up a key role for cities. Bristol's year as a Green Capital led to great strides forward, but it also revealed that a creative and determined partnership across cultural divides will be necessary.

  12. Climate change: Unattributed hurricane damage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hallegatte, Stéphane

    2015-11-01

    In the United States, hurricanes have been causing more and more economic damage. A reanalysis of the disaster database using a statistical method that accounts for improvements in resilience opens the possibility that climate change has played a role.

  13. Solar Variability and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pap, J. M.

    2004-12-01

    One of the most exciting and important challenges in science today is to understand climate variability and to make reliable predictions. The Earth's climate is a complex system driven by external and internal forces. Climate can vary over a large range of time scales as a consequence of natural variability or anthropogenic influence, or both. Observations of steadily increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases --primarily man-made-- in the Earth's atmosphere have led to an expectation of global warming during the coming decades. However, the greenhouse effect competes with other climate forcing mechanisms, such as solar variability, cosmic ray flux changes, desertification, deforestation, and changes in natural and man-made atmospheric aerosols. Indeed, the climate is always changing, and has forever been so, including periods before the industrial era began. Since the dominant driving force of the climate system is the Sun, the accurate knowledge of the solar radiation received by Earth at various wavelengths and from energetic particles with varying intensities, as well as a better knowledge of the solar-terrestrial interactions and their temporal and spatial variability are crucial to quantify the solar influence on climate and to distinguish between natural and anthropogenic influences. In this paper we give an overview on the recent results of solar irradiance measurements over the last three decades and the possible effects of solar variability on climate.

  14. Is Climate Change Predictable? Really?

    SciTech Connect

    Dannevik, W P; Rotman, D A

    2005-11-14

    This project is the first application of a completely different approach to climate modeling, in which new prognostic equations are used to directly compute the evolution of two-point correlations. This project addresses three questions that are critical for the credibility of the science base for climate prediction: (1) What is the variability spectrum at equilibrium? (2) What is the rate of relaxation when subjected to external perturbations? (3) Can variations due to natural processes be distinguished from those due to transient external forces? The technical approach starts with the evolution equation for the probability distribution function and arrives at a prognostic equation for ensemble-mean two-point correlations, bypassing the detailed weather calculation. This work will expand our basic understanding of the theoretical limits of climate prediction and stimulate new experiments to perform with conventional climate models. It will furnish statistical estimates that are inaccessible with conventional climate simulations and likely will raise important new questions about the very nature of climate change and about how (and whether) climate change can be predicted. Solid progress on such issues is vital to the credibility of the science base for climate change research and will provide policymakers evaluating tradeoffs among energy technology options and their attendant environmental and economic consequences.

  15. Climate Change Research - What Do We Need Really?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rama Chandra Prasad, P.

    2015-01-01

    This research note focuses on the current climate change research scenario and discusses primarily what is required in the present global climate change conditions. Most of the climate change research and models predict adverse future conditions that have to be faced by humanity, with less emphasis on mitigation measures. Moreover, research ends as reports on the shelves of scientists and researchers and as publications in journals. At this juncture the major focus should be on research that helps in reducing the impact rather than on analysing future scenarios of climate change using different models. The article raises several questions and suggestions regards climate change research and lays emphasis on what we really need from climate change researchers.

  16. Update on global climate change.

    PubMed

    Weber, Carol J

    2010-01-01

    Global climate change brings new challenges to the control of infectious diseases. Since many waterborne and vector-borne pathogens are highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall, health risks resulting from a warming and more variable climate are potentially huge. Global climate change involves the entire world, but the poorest countries will suffer the most. Nations are coming together to address what can be done to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and cope with inevitable temperature increases. A key component of any comprehensive mitigation and adaptation plan is a strong public health infrastructure across the world. Nothing less than global public health security is at stake.

  17. Linking climate change and groundwater

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Projected global change includes groundwater systems, which are linked with changes in climate over space and time. Consequently, global change affects key aspects of subsurface hydrology (including soil water, deeper vadose zone water, and unconfined and confined aquifer waters), surface-groundwat...

  18. Classifying climate change adaptation frameworks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armstrong, Jennifer

    2014-05-01

    Complex socio-ecological demographics are factors that must be considered when addressing adaptation to the potential effects of climate change. As such, a suite of deployable climate change adaptation frameworks is necessary. Multiple frameworks that are required to communicate the risks of climate change and facilitate adaptation. Three principal adaptation frameworks have emerged from the literature; Scenario - Led (SL), Vulnerability - Led (VL) and Decision - Centric (DC). This study aims to identify to what extent these adaptation frameworks; either, planned or deployed are used in a neighbourhood vulnerable to climate change. This work presents a criterion that may be used as a tool for identifying the hallmarks of adaptation frameworks and thus enabling categorisation of projects. The study focussed on the coastal zone surrounding the Sizewell nuclear power plant in Suffolk in the UK. An online survey was conducted identifying climate change adaptation projects operating in the study area. This inventory was analysed to identify the hallmarks of each adaptation project; Levels of dependency on climate model information, Metrics/units of analysis utilised, Level of demographic knowledge, Level of stakeholder engagement, Adaptation implementation strategies and Scale of adaptation implementation. The study found that climate change adaptation projects could be categorised, based on the hallmarks identified, in accordance with the published literature. As such, the criterion may be used to establish the matrix of adaptation frameworks present in a given area. A comprehensive summary of the nature of adaptation frameworks in operation in a locality provides a platform for further comparative analysis. Such analysis, enabled by the criterion, may aid the selection of appropriate frameworks enhancing the efficacy of climate change adaptation.

  19. Climate Change: Basic Information

    MedlinePlus

    ... produce energy, although deforestation, industrial processes, and some agricultural practices also emit gases into the atmosphere. Greenhouse ... change. By making choices that reduce greenhouse gas pollution, and preparing for the changes that are already ...

  20. Climate change and biodiversity.

    PubMed

    Lovejoy, T

    2008-08-01

    There is already widespread change in the natural calendars (phenology) of plants and animals, as well as change in some species distributions. Now threshold change (sudden, fundamental change) in ecosystems is beginning to be observed in nature. At minimum, the natural world will experience an equal amount of warming to that which has already taken place. This all suggests a future with nature and ecosystems very much in flux with profound implications for epidemiology. PMID:18819663

  1. Ocean Observations of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chambers, Don

    2016-01-01

    The ocean influences climate by storing and transporting large amounts of heat, freshwater, and carbon, and exchanging these properties with the atmosphere. About 93% of the excess heat energy stored by the earth over the last 50 years is found in the ocean. More than three quarters of the total exchange of water between the atmosphere and the earth's surface through evaporation and precipitation takes place over the oceans. The ocean contains 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere and is at present acting to slow the rate of climate change by absorbing one quarter of human emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, cement production, deforestation and other land use change.Here I summarize the observational evidence of change in the ocean, with an emphasis on basin- and global-scale changes relevant to climate. These include: changes in subsurface ocean temperature and heat content, evidence for regional changes in ocean salinity and their link to changes in evaporation and precipitation over the oceans, evidence of variability and change of ocean current patterns relevant to climate, observations of sea level change and predictions over the next century, and biogeochemical changes in the ocean, including ocean acidification.

  2. Population dynamics and climate change: what are the links?

    PubMed

    Stephenson, Judith; Newman, Karen; Mayhew, Susannah

    2010-06-01

    Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21(st) century. World population is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050, with most of this growth in developing countries. While the principal cause of climate change is high consumption in the developed countries, its impact will be greatest on people in the developing world. Climate change and population can be linked through adaptation (reducing vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change) and, more controversially, through mitigation (reducing the greenhouse gases that cause climate change). The contribution of low-income, high-fertility countries to global carbon emissions has been negligible to date, but is increasing with the economic development that they need to reduce poverty. Rapid population growth endangers human development, provision of basic services and poverty eradication and weakens the capacity of poor communities to adapt to climate change. Significant mass migration is likely to occur in response to climate change and should be regarded as a legitimate response to the effects of climate change. Linking population dynamics with climate change is a sensitive issue, but family planning programmes that respect and protect human rights can bring a remarkable range of benefits. Population dynamics have not been integrated systematically into climate change science. The contribution of population growth, migration, urbanization, ageing and household composition to mitigation and adaptation programmes needs urgent investigation.

  3. Urban sites in climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Früh, B.; Kossmann, M.

    2010-09-01

    For the 21st century a significant rise of near surface air temperature is expected from IPCC global climate model simulations. The additional heat load associated with this warming will especially affect cities since it adds to the well-known urban heat island effect. With already more than half of the world's population living in cities and continuing urbanization highly expected, managing urban heat load will become even more important in future. To support urban planners in their effort to maintain or improve the quality of living in their city, detailed information on future urban climate on the residential scale is required. To pursue this question the 'Umweltamt der Stadt Frankfurt am Main' and the 'Deutscher Wetterdienst' (DWD, German Meteorological Service) built a cooperation. This contribution presents estimates of the impact of climate change on the heat load in Frankfurt am Main, Germany, using the urban scale climate model MUKLIMO3 and climate projections from different regional climate models for the region of Frankfurt. Ten different building structures were considered to realistically represent the spatial variability of the urban environment. The evaluation procedure combines the urban climate model simulations and the regional climate projections to calculate several heat load indices based on the exceedance of a temperature threshold. An evaluation of MUKLIMO3 results is carried out for the time period 1971 - 2000. The range of potential future heat load in Frankfurt is statistically analyzed using an ensemble of four different regional climate projections. Future work will examine the options of urban planning to mitigate the enhanced heat load expected from climate change.

  4. Climate change and food security.

    PubMed

    Gregory, P J; Ingram, J S I; Brklacich, M

    2005-11-29

    Dynamic interactions between and within the biogeophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability (production, distribution and exchange), food access (affordability, allocation and preference) and food utilization (nutritional and societal values and safety), so that food security is, therefore, diminished when food systems are stressed. Such stresses may be induced by a range of factors in addition to climate change and/or other agents of environmental change (e.g. conflict, HIV/AIDS) and may be particularly severe when these factors act in combination. Urbanization and globalization are causing rapid changes to food systems. Climate change may affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season), to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. The relative importance of climate change for food security differs between regions. For example, in southern Africa, climate is among the most frequently cited drivers of food insecurity because it acts both as an underlying, ongoing issue and as a short-lived shock. The low ability to cope with shocks and to mitigate long-term stresses means that coping strategies that might be available in other regions are unavailable or inappropriate. In other regions, though, such as parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India, other drivers, such as labour issues and the availability and quality of ground water for irrigation, rank higher than the direct effects of climate change as factors influencing food security. Because of the multiple socio-economic and bio-physical factors affecting food systems and hence food security, the capacity to adapt food systems to reduce their

  5. Climate change. Accelerating extinction risk from climate change.

    PubMed

    Urban, Mark C

    2015-05-01

    Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change-induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions.

  6. CLIMATE CHANGE. Climate change impacts on bumblebees converge across continents.

    PubMed

    Kerr, Jeremy T; Pindar, Alana; Galpern, Paul; Packer, Laurence; Potts, Simon G; Roberts, Stuart M; Rasmont, Pierre; Schweiger, Oliver; Colla, Sheila R; Richardson, Leif L; Wagner, David L; Gall, Lawrence F; Sikes, Derek S; Pantoja, Alberto

    2015-07-10

    For many species, geographical ranges are expanding toward the poles in response to climate change, while remaining stable along range edges nearest the equator. Using long-term observations across Europe and North America over 110 years, we tested for climate change-related range shifts in bumblebee species across the full extents of their latitudinal and thermal limits and movements along elevation gradients. We found cross-continentally consistent trends in failures to track warming through time at species' northern range limits, range losses from southern range limits, and shifts to higher elevations among southern species. These effects are independent of changing land uses or pesticide applications and underscore the need to test for climate impacts at both leading and trailing latitudinal and thermal limits for species.

  7. Simulating Climate Change in Ireland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nolan, P.; Lynch, P.

    2012-04-01

    At the Meteorology & Climate Centre at University College Dublin, we are using the CLM-Community's COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model (RCM) and the WRF RCM (developed at NCAR) to simulate the climate of Ireland at high spatial resolution. To address the issue of model uncertainty, a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach is used. The ensemble method uses different RCMs, driven by several Global Climate Models (GCMs), to simulate climate change. Through the MME approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections is quantified, enabling us to estimate the probability density function of predicted changes, and providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. The RCMs were validated by performing a 20-year simulation of the Irish climate (1981-2000), driven by ECMWF ERA-40 global re-analysis data, and comparing the output to observations. Results confirm that the output of the RCMs exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in the historical data record. Projections for the future Irish climate were generated by downscaling the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5 GCM, the UK Met Office HadGEM2-ES GCM and the CGCM3.1 GCM from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling. Simulations were run for a reference period 1961-2000 and future period 2021-2060. The future climate was simulated using the A1B, A2, B1, RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results for the downscaled simulations show a substantial overall increase in precipitation and wind speed for the future winter months and a decrease during the summer months. The predicted annual change in temperature is approximately 1.1°C over Ireland. To date, all RCM projections are in general agreement, thus increasing our confidence in the robustness of the results.

  8. Climate change impacts on forestry

    SciTech Connect

    Kirilenko, A.P.; Sedjo, R.A.

    2007-12-11

    Changing temperature and precipitation pattern and increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO{sub 2} are likely to drive significant modifications in natural and modified forests. The authors' review is focused on recent publications that discuss the changes in commercial forestry, excluding the ecosystem functions of forests and nontimber forest products. They concentrate on potential direct and indirect impacts of climate change on forest industry, the projections of future trends in commercial forestry, the possible role of biofuels, and changes in supply and demand.

  9. Climate change impacts on forestry

    PubMed Central

    Kirilenko, Andrei P.; Sedjo, Roger A.

    2007-01-01

    Changing temperature and precipitation pattern and increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 are likely to drive significant modifications in natural and modified forests. Our review is focused on recent publications that discuss the changes in commercial forestry, excluding the ecosystem functions of forests and nontimber forest products. We concentrate on potential direct and indirect impacts of climate change on forest industry, the projections of future trends in commercial forestry, the possible role of biofuels, and changes in supply and demand. PMID:18077403

  10. Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chance, Paul; Heward, William L.

    2010-01-01

    In "Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge," we conclude the special section by assuming that you have been persuaded by Thompson's paper or other evidence that global warming is real and poses a threat that must be dealt with, and that for now the only way to deal with it is by changing behavior. Then we ask what you, as behavior analysts, can do…

  11. Invasive species and climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Middleton, Beth A.

    2006-01-01

    Invasive species challenge managers in their work of conserving and managing natural areas and are one of the most serious problems these managers face. Because invasive species are likely to spread in response to changes in climate, managers may need to change their approaches to invasive species management accordingly.

  12. Dislocated interests and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, Steven J.; Diffenbaugh, Noah

    2016-06-01

    The predicted effects of climate change on surface temperatures are now emergent and quantifiable. The recent letter by Hansen and Sato (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 034009) adds to a growing number of studies showing that warming over the past four decades has shifted the distribution of temperatures higher almost everywhere, with the largest relative effects on summer temperatures in developing regions such as Africa, South America, southeast Asia, and the Middle East (e.g., Diffenbaugh and Scherer 2011 Clim. Change 107 615-24 Anderson 2011 Clim. Change 108 581; Mahlstein et al 2012 Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L21711). Hansen and Sato emphasize that although these regions are warming disproportionately, their role in causing climate change—measured by cumulative historical CO2 emissions produced—is small compared to the US and Europe, where the relative change in temperatures has been less. This spatial and temporal mismatch of climate change impacts and the burning of fossil fuels is a critical dislocation of interests that, as the authors note, has ‘substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.’ Here, we place Hansen and Sato’s ‘national responsibilities’ into a broader conceptual framework of problematically dislocated interests, and briefly discuss the related challenges for global climate mitigation efforts.

  13. Dislocated interests and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, Steven J.; Diffenbaugh, Noah

    2016-06-01

    The predicted effects of climate change on surface temperatures are now emergent and quantifiable. The recent letter by Hansen and Sato (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 034009) adds to a growing number of studies showing that warming over the past four decades has shifted the distribution of temperatures higher almost everywhere, with the largest relative effects on summer temperatures in developing regions such as Africa, South America, southeast Asia, and the Middle East (e.g., Diffenbaugh and Scherer 2011 Clim. Change 107 615–24 Anderson 2011 Clim. Change 108 581; Mahlstein et al 2012 Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L21711). Hansen and Sato emphasize that although these regions are warming disproportionately, their role in causing climate change—measured by cumulative historical CO2 emissions produced—is small compared to the US and Europe, where the relative change in temperatures has been less. This spatial and temporal mismatch of climate change impacts and the burning of fossil fuels is a critical dislocation of interests that, as the authors note, has ‘substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.’ Here, we place Hansen and Sato’s ‘national responsibilities’ into a broader conceptual framework of problematically dislocated interests, and briefly discuss the related challenges for global climate mitigation efforts.

  14. Western water and climate change.

    PubMed

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris

    2015-12-01

    The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northern-most West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries

  15. Western water and climate change.

    PubMed

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris

    2015-12-01

    The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northern-most West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries

  16. NASA's Role in Understanding Climate Change

    NASA Video Gallery

    Earth's climate is changing because of human activity. Learn about NASA's role in understanding climate and climate change with Gilberto Colón, special assistant to the deputy director of NASA's Go...

  17. Species richness changes lag behind climate change.

    PubMed

    Menéndez, Rosa; Megías, Adela González; Hill, Jane K; Braschler, Brigitte; Willis, Stephen G; Collingham, Yvonne; Fox, Richard; Roy, David B; Thomas, Chris D

    2006-06-22

    Species-energy theory indicates that recent climate warming should have driven increases in species richness in cool and species-poor parts of the Northern Hemisphere. We confirm that the average species richness of British butterflies has increased since 1970-82, but much more slowly than predicted from changes of climate: on average, only one-third of the predicted increase has taken place. The resultant species assemblages are increasingly dominated by generalist species that were able to respond quickly. The time lag is confirmed by the successful introduction of many species to climatically suitable areas beyond their ranges. Our results imply that it may be decades or centuries before the species richness and composition of biological communities adjusts to the current climate. PMID:16777739

  18. Changing the intellectual climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castree, Noel; Adams, William M.; Barry, John; Brockington, Daniel; Büscher, Bram; Corbera, Esteve; Demeritt, David; Duffy, Rosaleen; Felt, Ulrike; Neves, Katja; Newell, Peter; Pellizzoni, Luigi; Rigby, Kate; Robbins, Paul; Robin, Libby; Rose, Deborah Bird; Ross, Andrew; Schlosberg, David; Sörlin, Sverker; West, Paige; Whitehead, Mark; Wynne, Brian

    2014-09-01

    Calls for more broad-based, integrated, useful knowledge now abound in the world of global environmental change science. They evidence many scientists' desire to help humanity confront the momentous biophysical implications of its own actions. But they also reveal a limited conception of social science and virtually ignore the humanities. They thereby endorse a stunted conception of 'human dimensions' at a time when the challenges posed by global environmental change are increasing in magnitude, scale and scope. Here, we make the case for a richer conception predicated on broader intellectual engagement and identify some preconditions for its practical fulfilment. Interdisciplinary dialogue, we suggest, should engender plural representations of Earth's present and future that are reflective of divergent human values and aspirations. In turn, this might insure publics and decision-makers against overly narrow conceptions of what is possible and desirable as they consider the profound questions raised by global environmental change.

  19. Double Exposure: Photographing Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnold, D. P.; Wake, C. P.; Romanow, G. B.

    2008-12-01

    Double Exposure, Photographing Climate Change, is a fine-art photography exhibition that examines climate change through the prism of melting glaciers. The photographs are twinned shots of glaciers, taken in the mid-20th century by world-renowned photographer Brad Washburn, and in the past two years by Boston journalist/photographer David Arnold. Arnold flew in Washburn's aerial "footprints", replicating stunning black and white photographs, and documenting one irreversible aspect of climate change. Double Exposure is art with a purpose. It is designed to educate, alarm and inspire its audiences. Its power lies in its beauty and the shocking changes it has captured through a camera lens. The interpretive text, guided by numerous experts in the fields of glaciology, global warming and geology, helps convey the message that climate change has already forced permanent changes on the face of our planet. The traveling exhibit premiered at Boston's Museum of Science in April and is now criss-crossing the nation. The exhibit covers changes in the 15 glaciers that have been photographed as well as related information about global warming's effect on the planet today.

  20. Renewable Energy and Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Chum, H. L.

    2012-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued the Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) at http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/ (May 2011 electronic version; printed form ISBN 978-1-107-60710-1, 2012). More than 130 scientists contributed to the report.* The SRREN assessed existing literature on the future potential of renewable energy for the mitigation of climate change within a portfolio of mitigation options including energy conservation and efficiency, fossil fuel switching, RE, nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS). It covers the six most important renewable energy technologies - bioenergy, direct solar, geothermal, hydropower, ocean and wind, as well as their integration into present and future energy systems. It also takes into consideration the environmental and social consequences associated with these technologies, the cost and strategies to overcome technical as well as non-technical obstacles to their application and diffusion.

  1. Climate change and game theory.

    PubMed

    Wood, Peter John

    2011-02-01

    This paper examines the problem of achieving global cooperation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Contributions to this problem are reviewed from noncooperative game theory, cooperative game theory, and implementation theory. We examine the solutions to games where players have a continuous choice about how much to pollute, as well as games where players make decisions about treaty participation. The implications of linking cooperation on climate change with cooperation on other issues, such as trade, are also examined. Cooperative and noncooperative approaches to coalition formation are investigated in order to examine the behavior of coalitions cooperating on climate change. One way to achieve cooperation is to design a game, known as a mechanism, whose equilibrium corresponds to an optimal outcome. This paper examines some mechanisms that are based on conditional commitments, and their policy implications. These mechanisms could make cooperation on climate change mitigation more likely.

  2. Assessing urban climate change resilience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voskaki, Asimina

    2016-04-01

    Recent extreme weather events demonstrate that many urban environments are vulnerable to climate change impacts and as a consequence designing systems for future climate seems to be an important parameter in sustainable urban planning. The focus of this research is the development of a theoretical framework to assess climate change resilience in urban environments. The methodological approach used encompasses literature review, detailed analysis, and combination of data, and the development of a series of evaluation criteria, which are further analyzed into a list of measures. The choice of the specific measures is based upon various environmental, urban planning parameters, social, economic and institutional features taking into consideration key vulnerabilities and risk associated with climate change. The selected criteria are further prioritized to incorporate into the evaluation framework the level of importance of different issues towards a climate change resilient city. The framework could support decision making as regards the ability of an urban system to adapt. In addition it gives information on the level of adaptation, outlining barriers to sustainable urban planning and pointing out drivers for action and reaction.

  3. Climatic change on Mars and Earth

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Toon, O. B.; Sagan, C.; Gierasch, P. J.; Pollack, J. B.

    1975-01-01

    Work on climatic changes of Mars is reviewed and related to terrestrial problems. In particular the dust storms of Mars are discussed since these represent the only global climatic change which has been scientifically observed. The channels of Mars have provoked studies of climatic change and these are summarized together with polar laminae as a climatic change indicator.

  4. Position Statement On Climate Change.

    PubMed

    2016-05-01

    The North Carolina Environmental Justice Network (NCEJN), a coalition of grassroots organizations, developed a statement to explain our environmental justice perspective on climate change to predominantly white environmental groups that seek to partner with us. NCEJN opposes strategies that reduce greenhouse emissions while maintaining or magnifying existing social, economic, and environmental injustices. Wealthy communities that consume a disproportionate share of resources avoid the most severe consequences of their consumption by displacing pollution on communities of color and low income. Therefore, the success of climate change activism depends on building an inclusive movement based on principles of racial, social and economic justice, and self-determination for all people.

  5. Public Engagement on Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Curry, J.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change communication is complicated by complexity of the scientific problem, multiple perspectives on the magnitude of the risk from climate change, often acrimonious disputes between scientists, high stakes policy options, and overall politicization of the issue. Efforts to increase science literacy as a route towards persuasion around the need for a policy like cap and trade have failed, because the difficulty that a scientist has in attempting to make sense of the social and political complexity is very similar to the complexity facing the general public as they try to make sense of climate science itself. In this talk I argue for a shift from scientists and their institutions as information disseminators to that of public engagement and enablers of public participation. The goal of engagement is not just to inform, but to enable, motivate and educate the public regarding the technical, political, and social dimensions of climate change. Engagement is a two-way process where experts and decision-makers seek input and learn from the public about preferences, needs, insights, and ideas relative to climate change impacts, vulnerabilities, solutions and policy options. Effective public engagement requires that scientists detach themselves from trying to control what the public does with the acquired knowledge and motivation. The goal should not be to "sell" the public on particular climate change solutions, since such advocacy threatens public trust in scientists and their institutions. Conduits for public engagement include the civic engagement approach in the context of community meetings, and perhaps more significantly, the blogosphere. Since 2006, I have been an active participant in the climate blogosphere, focused on engaging with people that are skeptical of AGW. A year ago, I started my own blog Climate Etc. at judithcurry.com. The demographic that I have focused my communication/engagement activities are the technically educated and scientifically

  6. Maritime Archaeology and Climate Change: An Invitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wright, Jeneva

    2016-08-01

    Maritime archaeology has a tremendous capacity to engage with climate change science. The field is uniquely positioned to support climate change research and the understanding of past human adaptations to climate change. Maritime archaeological data can inform on environmental shifts and submerged sites can serve as an important avenue for public outreach by mobilizing public interest and action towards understanding the impacts of climate change. Despite these opportunities, maritime archaeologists have not fully developed a role within climate change science and policy. Moreover, submerged site vulnerabilities stemming from climate change impacts are not yet well understood. This article discusses potential climate change threats to maritime archaeological resources, the challenges confronting cultural resource managers, and the contributions maritime archaeology can offer to climate change science. Maritime archaeology's ability to both support and benefit from climate change science argues its relevant and valuable place in the global climate change dialogue, but also reveals the necessity for our heightened engagement.

  7. AEROSOL, CLOUDS, AND CLIMATE CHANGE

    SciTech Connect

    SCHWARTZ, S.E.

    2005-09-01

    Earth's climate is thought to be quite sensitive to changes in radiative fluxes that are quite small in absolute magnitude, a few watts per square meter, and in relation to these fluxes in the natural climate. Atmospheric aerosol particles exert influence on climate directly, by scattering and absorbing radiation, and indirectly by modifying the microphysical properties of clouds and in turn their radiative effects and hydrology. The forcing of climate change by these indirect effects is thought to be quite substantial relative to forcing by incremental concentrations of greenhouse gases, but highly uncertain. Quantification of aerosol indirect forcing by satellite- or ground-based remote sensing has proved quite difficult in view of inherent large variation in the pertinent observables such as cloud optical depth, which is controlled mainly by liquid water path and only secondarily by aerosols. Limited work has shown instances of large magnitude of aerosol indirect forcing, with local instantaneous forcing upwards of 50 W m{sup 66}-2. Ultimately it will be necessary to represent aerosol indirect effects in climate models to accurately identify the anthropogenic forcing at present and over secular time and to assess the influence of this forcing in the context of other forcings of climate change. While the elements of aerosol processes that must be represented in models describing the evolution and properties of aerosol particles that serve as cloud condensation particles are known, many important components of these processes remain to be understood and to be represented in models, and the models evaluated against observation, before such model-based representations can confidently be used to represent aerosol indirect effects in climate models.

  8. The Atlantic Climate Change Program

    SciTech Connect

    Molinari, R.L. ); Battisti, D. ); Bryan, K. ); Walsh, J. )

    1994-07-01

    The Atlantic Climate Change Program (ACCP) is a component of NOAA's Climate and Global Change Program. ACCP is directed at determining the role of the thermohaline circulation of the Atlantic Ocean on global atmospheric climate. Efforts and progress in four ACCP elements are described. Advances include (1) descriptions of decadal and longer-term variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere-ice system of the North Atlantic; (2) development of tools needed to perform long-term model runs of coupled simulations of North Atlantic air-sea interaction; (3) definition of mean and time-dependent characteristics of the thermohaline circulation; and (4) development of monitoring strategies for various elements of the thermohaline circulation. 20 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  9. Stratospheric aerosols and climatic change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baldwin, B.; Pollack, J. B.; Summers, A.; Toon, O. B.; Sagan, C.; Van Camp, W.

    1976-01-01

    Generated primarily by volcanic explosions, a layer of submicron silicate particles and particles made of concentrated sulfuric acids solution is present in the stratosphere. Flights through the stratosphere may be a future source of stratospheric aerosols, since the effluent from supersonic transports contains sulfurous gases (which will be converted to H2SO4) while the exhaust from Space Shuttles contains tiny aluminum oxide particles. Global heat balance calculations have shown that the stratospheric aerosols have made important contributions to some climatic changes. In the present paper, accurate radiative transfer calculations of the globally-averaged surface temperature (T) are carried out to estimate the sensitivity of the climate to changes in the number of stratospheric aerosols. The results obtained for a specified model atmosphere, including a vertical profile of the aerosols, indicate that the climate is unlikely to be affected by supersonic transports and Space Shuttles, during the next decades.

  10. Solar Changes and Climate Changes. (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feynman, J.

    2009-12-01

    During the early decades of the Space Age there was general agreement in the scientific community on two facts: (1) sunspot cycles continued without interruption; (2) decadal timescale variations in the solar output has no effect on Earth’s climate. Then in 1976 Jack Eddy published a paper called ‘The Maunder Minimum” in Science magazine arguing that neither of these two established facts was true. He reviewed the observations from the 17th century that show the Sun did not appear to cycle for several decades and he related that to the cold winters in Northern Europe at that time. The paper has caused three decades of hot discussions. When Jack Eddy died on June 10th of this year the arguments were sill going on, and there were no sunspots that day. The Sun was in the longest and deepest solar minimum since 1900. In this talk I will describe the changes in the solar output that have taken place over the last few decades and put them in their historical context. I will also review recent work on the influence of decadal and century scale solar variations on the Earth’s climate. It is clear that this long, deep “solar minimum” is an opportunity to make fundamental progress on our understanding of the solar dynamo and to separate climate change due to the Sun from anthropogenic climate change.

  11. Climate change and allergic disease.

    PubMed

    Shea, Katherine M; Truckner, Robert T; Weber, Richard W; Peden, David B

    2008-09-01

    Climate change is potentially the largest global threat to human health ever encountered. The earth is warming, the warming is accelerating, and human actions are largely responsible. If current emissions and land use trends continue unchecked, the next generations will face more injury, disease, and death related to natural disasters and heat waves, higher rates of climate-related infections, and wide-spread malnutrition, as well as more allergic and air pollution-related morbidity and mortality. This review highlights links between global climate change and anticipated increases in prevalence and severity of asthma and related allergic disease mediated through worsening ambient air pollution and altered local and regional pollen production. The pattern of change will vary regionally depending on latitude, altitude, rainfall and storms, land-use patterns, urbanization, transportation, and energy production. The magnitude of climate change and related increases in allergic disease will be affected by how aggressively greenhouse gas mitigation strategies are pursued, but at best an average warming of 1 to 2 degrees C is certain this century. Thus, anticipation of a higher allergic disease burden will affect clinical practice as well as public health planning. A number of practical primary and secondary prevention strategies are suggested at the end of the review to assist in meeting this unprecedented public health challenge.

  12. Media power and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbett, Julia B.

    2015-04-01

    Fingers are often pointed directly at the news media for their powerful influence and ineffective reporting of climate change. But is that the best place to point? And are there more effective ways to conceptualize the power of the media and to consider whom they serve?

  13. Climate change primer for respirologists.

    PubMed

    Takaro, Tim K; Henderson, Sarah B

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is already affecting the cardiorespiratory health of populations around the world, and these impacts are expected to increase. The present overview serves as a primer for respirologists who are concerned about how these profound environmental changes may affect their patients. The authors consider recent peer-reviewed literature with a focus on climate interactions with air pollution. They do not discuss in detail cardiorespiratory health effects for which the potential link to climate change is poorly understood. For example, pneumonia and influenza, which affect >500 million people per year, are not addressed, although clear seasonal variation suggests climate-related effects. Additionally, large global health impacts in low-resource countries, including migration precipitated by environmental change, are omitted. The major cardiorespiratory health impacts addressed are due to heat, air pollution and wildfires, shifts in allergens and infectious diseases along with respiratory impacts from flooding. Personal and societal choices about carbon use and fossil energy infrastructure should be informed by their impacts on health, and respirologists can play an important role in this discussion.

  14. Students' evaluations about climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lombardi, Doug; Brandt, Carol B.; Bickel, Elliot S.; Burg, Colin

    2016-05-01

    Scientists regularly evaluate alternative explanations of phenomena and solutions to problems. Students should similarly engage in critical evaluation when learning about scientific and engineering topics. However, students do not often demonstrate sophisticated evaluation skills in the classroom. The purpose of the present study was to investigate middle school students' evaluations when confronted with alternative explanations of the complex and controversial topic of climate change. Through a qualitative analysis, we determined that students demonstrated four distinct categories of evaluation when writing about the connections between evidence and alternative explanations of climate change: (a) erroneous evaluation, (b) descriptive evaluation, (c) relational evaluation, and (d) critical evaluation. These categories represent different types of evaluation quality. A quantitative analysis revealed that types of evaluation, along with plausibility perceptions about the alternative explanations, were significant predictors of postinstructional knowledge about scientific principles underlying the climate change phenomenon. Specifically, more robust evaluations and greater plausibility toward the scientifically accepted model of human-induced climate change predicted greater knowledge. These findings demonstrate that instruction promoting critical evaluation and plausibility appraisal may promote greater understanding of socio-scientific topics and increased use of scientific thinking when considering alternative explanations, as is called for by recent science education reform efforts.

  15. Western water and climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2015-01-01

    In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries and agricultural demands. Finally, California's Bay-Delta system is a remarkably localized and severe weakness at the heart of the region's trillion-dollar economy. It is threatened by the full range of potential climate-change impacts expected across the West, along with major vulnerabilities to increased flooding and rising sea levels.

  16. Climate Change: Evidence and Causes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wolff, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The fundamentals of climate change are well established: greenhouse gases warm the planet; their concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing; Earth has warmed, and is going to continue warming with a range of impacts. This article summarises the contents of a recent publication issued by the UK's Royal Society and the US National Academy…

  17. The Science of Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oppenheimer, Michael; Anttila-Hughes, Jesse K.

    2016-01-01

    Michael Oppenheimer and Jesse Anttila-Hughes begin with a primer on how the greenhouse effect works, how we know that Earth is rapidly getting warmer, and how we know that the recent warming is caused by human activity. They explain the sources of scientific knowledge about climate change as well as the basis for the models scientists use to…

  18. Climate change - creating watershed resilience

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change is likely to intensify the circulation of water, which will shift spatial and temporal availability of snowmelt and runoff. In addition, drought and floods are likely to be more frequent, severe and widespread. Higher air temperatures will lead to higher ocean temperatures, elevating ...

  19. A Lesson on Climate Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lewis, Jim

    This cooperative learning activity, for grades 7-12, promotes critical thinking skills within the context of learning about the causes and effects of climate change. Objectives include: (1) understanding factors that reduce greenhouse gases; (2) understanding the role of trees in reducing greenhouse gases; (3) identifying foods that produce…

  20. Climate Change and Respiratory Infections.

    PubMed

    Mirsaeidi, Mehdi; Motahari, Hooman; Taghizadeh Khamesi, Mojdeh; Sharifi, Arash; Campos, Michael; Schraufnagel, Dean E

    2016-08-01

    The rate of global warming has accelerated over the past 50 years. Increasing surface temperature is melting glaciers and raising the sea level. More flooding, droughts, hurricanes, and heat waves are being reported. Accelerated changes in climate are already affecting human health, in part by altering the epidemiology of climate-sensitive pathogens. In particular, climate change may alter the incidence and severity of respiratory infections by affecting vectors and host immune responses. Certain respiratory infections, such as avian influenza and coccidioidomycosis, are occurring in locations previously unaffected, apparently because of global warming. Young children and older adults appear to be particularly vulnerable to rapid fluctuations in ambient temperature. For example, an increase in the incidence in childhood pneumonia in Australia has been associated with sharp temperature drops from one day to the next. Extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods, major storms, drought, and wildfires, are also believed to change the incidence of respiratory infections. An outbreak of aspergillosis among Japanese survivors of the 2011 tsunami is one such well-documented example. Changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and air pollution influence viral activity and transmission. For example, in early 2000, an outbreak of Hantavirus respiratory disease was linked to a local increase in the rodent population, which in turn was attributed to a two- to threefold increase in rainfall before the outbreak. Climate-sensitive respiratory pathogens present challenges to respiratory health that may be far greater in the foreseeable future. PMID:27300144

  1. Climate Change and Respiratory Infections.

    PubMed

    Mirsaeidi, Mehdi; Motahari, Hooman; Taghizadeh Khamesi, Mojdeh; Sharifi, Arash; Campos, Michael; Schraufnagel, Dean E

    2016-08-01

    The rate of global warming has accelerated over the past 50 years. Increasing surface temperature is melting glaciers and raising the sea level. More flooding, droughts, hurricanes, and heat waves are being reported. Accelerated changes in climate are already affecting human health, in part by altering the epidemiology of climate-sensitive pathogens. In particular, climate change may alter the incidence and severity of respiratory infections by affecting vectors and host immune responses. Certain respiratory infections, such as avian influenza and coccidioidomycosis, are occurring in locations previously unaffected, apparently because of global warming. Young children and older adults appear to be particularly vulnerable to rapid fluctuations in ambient temperature. For example, an increase in the incidence in childhood pneumonia in Australia has been associated with sharp temperature drops from one day to the next. Extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods, major storms, drought, and wildfires, are also believed to change the incidence of respiratory infections. An outbreak of aspergillosis among Japanese survivors of the 2011 tsunami is one such well-documented example. Changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and air pollution influence viral activity and transmission. For example, in early 2000, an outbreak of Hantavirus respiratory disease was linked to a local increase in the rodent population, which in turn was attributed to a two- to threefold increase in rainfall before the outbreak. Climate-sensitive respiratory pathogens present challenges to respiratory health that may be far greater in the foreseeable future.

  2. Climatic Change and Human Evolution.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garratt, John R.

    1995-01-01

    Traces the history of the Earth over four billion years, and shows how climate has had an important role to play in the evolution of humans. Posits that the world's rapidly growing human population and its increasing use of energy is the cause of present-day changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. (Author/JRH)

  3. Climate change, zoonoses and India.

    PubMed

    Singh, B B; Sharma, R; Gill, J P S; Aulakh, R S; Banga, H S

    2011-12-01

    Economic trends have shaped our growth and the growth of the livestock sector, but atthe expense of altering natural resources and systems in ways that are not always obvious. Now, however, the reverse is beginning to happen, i.e. environmental trends are beginning to shape our economy and health status. In addition to water, air and food, animals and birds play a pivotal role in the maintenance and transmission of important zoonotic diseases in nature. It is generally considered that the prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne zoonoses is likely to increase in the coming years due to the effects of global warming in India. In recent years, vector-borne diseases have emerged as a serious public health problem in countries of the South-East Asia region, including India. Vector-borne zoonoses now occur in epidemic form almost on an annual basis, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. New reservoir areas of cutaneous leishmaniosis in South India have been recognised, and the role of climate change in its re-emergence warrants further research, as does the role of climate change in the ascendancy of waterborne and foodborne illness. Similarly, climate change that leads to warmer and more humid conditions may increase the risk of transmission of airborne zoonoses, and hot and drier conditions may lead to a decline in the incidence of disease(s). The prevalence of these zoonotic diseases and their vectors and the effect of climate change on important zoonoses in India are discussed in this review.

  4. Global Climate Change Interaction Web.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fortner, Rosanne W.

    1998-01-01

    Students investigate the effects of global climate change on life in the Great Lakes region in this activity. Teams working together construct as many links as possible for such factors as rainfall, lake water, evaporation, skiing, zebra mussels, wetlands, shipping, walleye, toxic chemicals, coastal homes, and population. (PVD)

  5. Organizational Climate Changes over Time

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walden, John C.; Taylor, Thomas N.; Watkins, J. Foster

    1975-01-01

    As the basis for his doctoral dissertation, Taylor explored some of the conjectures advanced by Halpin and Croft relative to the possible directional changes in the organizational climate of schools over time. Taylor limited his study to elementary school based upon the question raised by Watkins in his dissertation relative to the validity of the…

  6. Climate change and trace gases.

    PubMed

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Kharecha, Pushker; Russell, Gary; Lea, David W; Siddall, Mark

    2007-07-15

    Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the 'albedo flip' property of ice/water, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that 'flips' the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Inertia of ice sheet and ocean provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the largest human-made climate forcing, but other trace constituents are also important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the non-CO2 forcings is methane (CH4), as it causes the second largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased tropospheric ozone (O3), which is the third largest GHG forcing. Nitrous oxide (N2O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation efforts. Black carbon ('black soot') has a high global warming potential (approx. 2000, 500 and 200 for 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively) and deserves greater attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could preserve Arctic ice, while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity and the global environment.

  7. Changing Climates @ Colorado State: 100 (Multidisciplinary) Views of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Campbell, S.; Calderazzo, J.; Changing Climates, Cmmap Education; Diversity Team

    2011-12-01

    We would like to talk about a multidisciplinary education and outreach program we co-direct at Colorado State University, with support from an NSF-funded STC, CMMAP, the Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes. We are working to raise public literacy about climate change by providing information that is high quality, up to date, thoroughly multidisciplinary, and easy for non-specialists to understand. Our primary audiences are college-level students, their teachers, and the general public. Our motto is Climate Change is Everybody's Business. To encourage and help our faculty infuse climate-change content into their courses, we have organized some 115 talks given by as many different speakers-speakers drawn from 28 academic departments, all 8 colleges at CSU, and numerous other entities from campus, the community, and farther afield. We began with a faculty-teaching-faculty series and then broadened our attentions to the whole campus and surrounding community. Some talks have been for narrowly focused audiences such as extension agents who work on energy, but most are for more eclectic groups of students, staff, faculty, and citizens. We count heads at most events, and our current total is roughly 6,000. We have created a website (http://changingclimates.colostate.edu) that includes videotapes of many of these talks, short videos we have created, and annotated sources that we judge to be accurate, interesting, clearly written, and aimed at non-specialists, including books, articles and essays, websites, and a few items specifically for college teachers (such as syllabi). Pages of the website focus on such topics as how the climate works / how it changes; what's happening / what might happen; natural ecosystems; agriculture; impacts on people; responses from ethics, art, literature; communication; daily life; policy; energy; and-pulling all the pieces together-the big picture. We have begun working on a new series of very short videos that can be

  8. Climate change and intertidal wetlands.

    PubMed

    Ross, Pauline M; Adam, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause-the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the "squeeze" experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change. PMID:24832670

  9. Climate change and intertidal wetlands.

    PubMed

    Ross, Pauline M; Adam, Paul

    2013-03-19

    Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause-the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the "squeeze" experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change.

  10. Climate Change and Intertidal Wetlands

    PubMed Central

    Ross, Pauline M.; Adam, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause—the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the “squeeze” experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change. PMID:24832670

  11. Cloud feedback on climate change and variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, C.; Dessler, A. E.; Yang, P.

    2014-12-01

    Cloud feedback on climate change and variability follow similar mechanism in climate models, and the magnitude of cloud feedback on climate change and variability are well correlated among models. Therefore, the cloud feedback on short-term climate fluctuations correlates with the equilibrium climate sensitivity in climate models. Using this correlation and the observed short-term climate feedback, we infer a climate sensitivity of ~2.9K. The cloud response to inter-annual surface warming is generally consistent in observations and climate models, except for the tropical boundary-layer low clouds.

  12. Climate change and allergic disease.

    PubMed

    Bielory, Leonard; Lyons, Kevin; Goldberg, Robert

    2012-12-01

    Allergies are prevalent throughout the United States and impose a substantial quality of life and economic burden. The potential effect of climate change has an impact on allergic disorders through variability of aeroallergens, food allergens and insect-based allergic venoms. Data suggest allergies (ocular and nasal allergies, allergic asthma and sinusitis) have increased in the United States and that there are changes in allergies to stinging insect populations (vespids, apids and fire ants). The cause of this upward trend is unknown, but any climate change may induce augmentation of this trend; the subspecialty of allergy and immunology needs to be keenly aware of potential issues that are projected for the near and not so distant future.

  13. A common-sense climate index: is climate changing noticeably?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Glascoe, J.; Ruedy, R.

    1998-01-01

    We propose an index of climate change based on practical climate indicators such as heating degree days and the frequency of intense precipitation. We find that in most regions the index is positive, the sense predicted to accompany global warming. In a few regions, especially in Asia and western North America, the index indicates that climate change should be apparent already, but in most places climate trends are too small to stand out above year-to-year variability. The climate index is strongly correlated with global surface temperature, which has increased as rapidly as projected by climate models in the 1980s. We argue that the global area with obvious climate change will increase notably in the next few years. But we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has declined in recent years, and thus there is an opportunity to keep climate change in the 21st century less than "business-as-usual" scenarios.

  14. A common-sense climate index: Is climate changing noticeably?

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Glascoe, Jay; Ruedy, Reto

    1998-01-01

    We propose an index of climate change based on practical climate indicators such as heating degree days and the frequency of intense precipitation. We find that in most regions the index is positive, the sense predicted to accompany global warming. In a few regions, especially in Asia and western North America, the index indicates that climate change should be apparent already, but in most places climate trends are too small to stand out above year-to-year variability. The climate index is strongly correlated with global surface temperature, which has increased as rapidly as projected by climate models in the 1980s. We argue that the global area with obvious climate change will increase notably in the next few years. But we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has declined in recent years, and thus there is an opportunity to keep climate change in the 21st century less than “business-as-usual” scenarios. PMID:9539699

  15. A common-sense climate index: is climate changing noticeably?

    PubMed

    Hansen, J; Sato, M; Glascoe, J; Ruedy, R

    1998-04-14

    We propose an index of climate change based on practical climate indicators such as heating degree days and the frequency of intense precipitation. We find that in most regions the index is positive, the sense predicted to accompany global warming. In a few regions, especially in Asia and western North America, the index indicates that climate change should be apparent already, but in most places climate trends are too small to stand out above year-to-year variability. The climate index is strongly correlated with global surface temperature, which has increased as rapidly as projected by climate models in the 1980s. We argue that the global area with obvious climate change will increase notably in the next few years. But we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has declined in recent years, and thus there is an opportunity to keep climate change in the 21st century less than "business-as-usual" scenarios.

  16. Asia's changing role in global climate change.

    PubMed

    Siddiqi, Toufiq A

    2008-10-01

    Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested. PMID:18991898

  17. Asia's changing role in global climate change.

    PubMed

    Siddiqi, Toufiq A

    2008-10-01

    Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

  18. 1000 years of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, C.

    Solar activity has been observed to vary on decadal and centennial time scales. Recent evidence (Bond, 2002) points to a major semi-periodic variation of approximately 1,500 yrs. For this reason, and because high resolution proxy records are limited to the past thousand years or so, assessing the role of the sun's variability on climate change over this time f ame has received much attention. A pressingr application of these assessments is the attempt to separate the role of the sun from that of various anthropogenic forcings in the past century and a half. This separation is complicated by the possible existence of natural variability other than solar, and by the fact that the time-dependence of solar and anthropogenic forcings is very similar over the past hundred years or so. It has been generally assumed that solar forcing is direct, i.e. changes in sun's irradiance. However, evidence has been put forth suggesting that there exist various additional indirect forcings that could be as large as or even exceed direct forcing (modulation of cosmic ray - induced cloudiness, UV- induced stratospheric ozone change s, or oscillator -driven changes in the Pacific Ocean). Were such forcings to be large, they could account for nearly all 20th Century warming, relegating anthropogenic effects to a minor role. Determination of climate change over the last thousand years offers perhaps the best way to assess the magnitude of total solar forcing, thus allowing its comparison with that of anthropogenic sources. Perhaps the best proxy records for climate variation in the past 1,000 yrs have been variations in temperat ure sensitive tree rings (Briffa and Osborne, 2002). A paucity of such records in the Southern Hemisphere has largely limited climate change determinations to the subtropical NH. Two problems with tree rings are that the rings respond to temperature differently with the age of the tree, and record largely the warm, growing season only. It appears that both these

  19. Climate Change and Civil Violence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Vink, G.; Plancherel, Y.; Hennet, C.; Jones, K. D.; Abdullah, A.; Bradshaw, J.; Dee, S.; Deprez, A.; Pasenello, M.; Plaza-Jennings, E.; Roseman, D.; Sopher, P.; Sung, E.

    2009-05-01

    The manifestations of climate change can result in humanitarian impacts that reverse progress in poverty- reduction, create shortages of food and resources, lead to migration, and ultimately result in civil violence and conflict. Within the continent of Africa, we have found that environmentally-related variables are either the cause or the confounding factor for over 80% of the civil violence events during the last 10 years. Using predictive climate models and land-use data, we are able to identify populations in Africa that are likely to experience the most severe climate-related shocks. Through geospatial analysis, we are able to overlay these areas of high risk with assessments of both the local population's resiliency and the region's capacity to respond to climate shocks should they occur. The net result of the analysis is the identification of locations that are becoming particularly vulnerable to future civil violence events (vulnerability hotspots) as a result of the manifestations of climate change. For each population group, over 600 social, economic, political, and environmental indicators are integrated statistically to measures the vulnerability of African populations to environmental change. The indicator time-series are filtered for data availability and redundancy, broadly ordered into four categories (social, political, economic and environmental), standardized and normalized. Within each category, the dominant modes of variability are isolated by principal component analysis and the loadings of each component for each variable are used to devise composite index scores. Comparisons of past vulnerability with known environmentally-related conflicts demonstrates the role that such vulnerability hotspot maps can play in evaluating both the potential for, and the significance of, environmentally-related civil violence events. Furthermore, the analysis reveals the major variables that are responsible for the population's vulnerability and therefore

  20. Severe thunderstorms and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brooks, H. E.

    2013-04-01

    As the planet warms, it is important to consider possible impacts of climate change on severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. To further that discussion, the current distribution of severe thunderstorms as a function of large-scale environmental conditions is presented. Severe thunderstorms are much more likely to form in environments with large values of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and deep-tropospheric wind shear. Tornadoes and large hail are preferred in high-shear environments and non-tornadic wind events in low shear. Further, the intensity of tornadoes and hail, given that they occur, tends to be almost entirely a function of the shear and only weakly depends on the thermodynamics. Climate model simulations suggest that CAPE will increase in the future and the wind shear will decrease. Detailed analysis has suggested that the CAPE change will lead to more frequent environments favorable for severe thunderstorms, but the strong dependence on shear for tornadoes, particularly the strongest ones, and hail means that the interpretation of how individual hazards will change is open to question. The recent development of techniques to use higher-resolution models to estimate the occurrence of storms of various kinds is discussed. Given the large interannual variability in environments and occurrence of events, caution is urged in interpreting the observational record as evidence of climate change.

  1. Novel communities from climate change

    PubMed Central

    Lurgi, Miguel; López, Bernat C.; Montoya, José M.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is generating novel communities composed of new combinations of species. These result from different degrees of species adaptations to changing biotic and abiotic conditions, and from differential range shifts of species. To determine whether the responses of organisms are determined by particular species traits and how species interactions and community dynamics are likely to be disrupted is a challenge. Here, we focus on two key traits: body size and ecological specialization. We present theoretical expectations and empirical evidence on how climate change affects these traits within communities. We then explore how these traits predispose species to shift or expand their distribution ranges, and associated changes on community size structure, food web organization and dynamics. We identify three major broad changes: (i) Shift in the distribution of body sizes towards smaller sizes, (ii) dominance of generalized interactions and the loss of specialized interactions, and (iii) changes in the balance of strong and weak interaction strengths in the short term. We finally identify two major uncertainties: (i) whether large-bodied species tend to preferentially shift their ranges more than small-bodied ones, and (ii) how interaction strengths will change in the long term and in the case of newly interacting species. PMID:23007079

  2. Phenological changes reflect climate change in Wisconsin

    PubMed Central

    Bradley, Nina L.; Leopold, A. Carl; Ross, John; Huffaker, Wellington

    1999-01-01

    A phenological study of springtime events was made over a 61-year period at one site in southern Wisconsin. The records over this long period show that several phenological events have been increasing in earliness; we discuss evidence indicating that these changes reflect climate change. The mean of regressions for the 55 phenophases studied was −0.12 day per year, an overall increase in phenological earliness at this site during the period. Some phenophases have not increased in earliness, as would be expected for phenophases that are regulated by photoperiod or by a physiological signal other than local temperature. PMID:10449757

  3. Ocean circulation and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hasselmann, Klaus

    1991-09-01

    Recent numerical simulations using global ocean circulation models are reviewed together with model experiments involving further important climate sub-systems with which the ocean interacts: the atmosphere, the air-sea interface and the global carbon cycle. A common feature of all ocean circulation experiments considered is the strong sensitivity of the circulation to relatively minor changes in surface forcing, particularly to the buoyancy fluxes in regions of deep water formation in high latitudes. This may explain some of the well-known deficiencies of past global ocean circulation simulations. The strong sensitivity may also have been the cause of rapid climate changes observed in paleoclimatic records and can lead further to significant natural climate variability on the time scales of a few hundred years through the stochastic forcing of the ocean by atmospheric weather variability. Gobal warming computations using two different coupled ocean-atmosphere models for the "business-as-usual" scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change yield a significantly stronger warming delay due to the heat uptake by the oceans in the Southern Ocean than estimated on the basis of box-diffusion models. Recent advances in surface wave modelling, illustrated by a comparison of wave height fields derived from the WAM model and the GEOSAT altimeter, hold promise for the development of an improved representation of ocean-atmosphere coupling based on an explicit description of the dynamical processes at the air-sea interface. Global carbon cycle simulations with a three dimensional carbon cycle model tuned to reproduce past variations of carbon cycle indices show a significant impact of variations in the ocean circulation on the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and thereby on climate. The series of experiments suggest that for the study of climate in the time scale range from 10-Ocean circulation and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hasselmann, Klaus

    1991-08-01

    Recent numerical simulations using global ocean circulation models are reviewed together with model experiments involving further important climate sub-systems with which the ocean interacts: the atmosphere, the air-sea interface and the global carbon cycle. A common feature of all ocean circulation experiments considered is the strong sensitivity of the circulation to relatively minor changes in surface forcing, particularly to the buoyancy fluxes in regions of deep water formation in high latitudes. This may explain some of the well-known deficiencies of past global ocean circulation simulations. The strong sensitivity may also have been the cause of rapid climate changes observed in paleoclimatic records and can lead further to significant natural climate variability on the time scales of a few hundred years through the stochastic forcing of the ocean by atmospheric weather variability. Gobal warming computations using two different coupled ocean-atmosphere models for the "business-as-usual" scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change yield a significantly stronger warming delay due to the heat uptake by the oceans in the Southern Ocean than estimated on the basis of box-diffusion models. Recent advances in surface wave modelling, illustrated by a comparison of wave height fields derived from the WAM model and the GEOSAT altimeter, hold promise for the development of an improved representation of ocean-atmosphere coupling based on an explicit description of the dynamical processes at the air-sea interface. Global carbon cycle simulations with a three dimensional carbon cycle model tuned to reproduce past variations of carbon cycle indices show a significant impact of variations in the ocean circulation on the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and thereby on climate. The series of experiments suggest that for the study of climate in the time scale range from 10-Climate change and Arctic parasites.

    PubMed

    Dobson, Andy; Molnár, Péter K; Kutz, Susan

    2015-05-01

    Climate is changing rapidly in the Arctic. This has important implications for parasites of Arctic ungulates, and hence for the welfare of Arctic peoples who depend on caribou, reindeer, and muskoxen for food, income, and a focus for cultural activities. In this Opinion article we briefly review recent work on the development of predictive models for the impacts of climate change on helminth parasites and other pathogens of Arctic wildlife, in the hope that such models may eventually allow proactive mitigation and conservation strategies. We describe models that have been developed using the metabolic theory of ecology. The main strength of these models is that they can be easily parameterized using basic information about the physical size of the parasite. Initial results suggest they provide important new insights that are likely to generalize to a range of host-parasite systems. PMID:25900882

  4. Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Ramaswamy, V.; Boucher, Olivier; Haigh, J.; Hauglustaine, D.; Haywood, J.; Myhre, G.; Nakajima, Takahito; Shi, Guangyu; Solomon, S.; Betts, Robert E.; Charlson, R.; Chuang, C. C.; Daniel, J. S.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Feichter, J.; Fuglestvedt, J.; Forster, P. M.; Ghan, Steven J.; Jones, A.; Kiehl, J. T.; Koch, D.; Land, C.; Lean, J.; Lohmann, Ulrike; Minschwaner, K.; Penner, Joyce E.; Roberts, D. L.; Rodhe, H.; Roelofs, G.-J.; Rotstayn, Leon D.; Schneider, T. L.; Schumann, U.; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Schwartzkopf, M. D.; Shine, K. P.; Smith, Steven J.; Stevenson, D. S.; Stordal, F.; Tegen, I.; van Dorland, R.; Zhang, Y.; Srinivasan, J.; Joos, Fortunat

    2001-10-01

    Chapter 6 of the IPCC Third Assessment Report Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Sections include: Executive Summary 6.1 Radiative Forcing 6.2 Forcing-Response Relationship 6.3 Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases 6.4 Stratospheric Ozone 6.5 Radiative Forcing By Tropospheric Ozone 6.6 Indirect Forcings due to Chemistry 6.7 The Direct Radiative Forcing of Tropospheric Aerosols 6.8 The Indirect Radiative Forcing of Tropospheric Aerosols 6.9 Stratospheric Aerosols 6.10 Land-use Change (Surface Albedo Effect) 6.11 Solar Forcing of Climate 6.12 Global Warming Potentials hydrocarbons 6.13 Global Mean Radiative Forcings 6.14 The Geographical Distribution of the Radiative Forcings 6.15 Time Evolution of Radiative Forcings Appendix 6.1 Elements of Radiative Forcing Concept References.

  5. How Does The Climate Change?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, R. N.

    2011-12-01

    In 1997, maximum temperature in SE Australia shifted up by 0.8°C at pH0<0.01. Rainfall decreased by 13% in 1997-2010 compared to 1900-1996. Statistically significant shifts also occur in impact indicators: baumé levels in winegrapes shift >21 days earlier from 1998, streamflow records decrease by 30-70% from 1997 and annual mean forest fire danger index increased by 38% from 1997. Despite catastrophic fires killing 178 people in early 2009, the public remains unaware of this large change in their exposure. When regional temperature was separated into internally and externally forced components, the latter component was found to warm in two steps, in 1968-73 and 1997. These dates coincide with shifts in zonal mean temperature (24-44S; Figure 1). Climate model output shows similar step and trend behavior. Tests run on zonal, hemispheric and global mean temperature observations found shifts in all regions. 1997 marks a shift in global temperature of 0.3°C at pH0<0.01. Similar shifts occur in long-term tide gauge records around the globe (e.g., Figure 2) and in ocean heat content. The prevailing paradigm for how climate variables change is signal-noise construct combining a smooth signal with variations caused by internal climate variability. There seems to be no sound theoretical basis for this assumption. On the contrary, complex system behavior would suggest non-linear responses to externally forced change, especially at the regional scale. Some of our most basic assumptions about how climate changes may need to be re-examined.

  6. Teaching Climate Change Through Music

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weiss, P. S.

    2007-12-01

    During 2006, Peter Weiss aka "The Singing Scientist" performed many music assemblies for elementary schools (K-5) in Santa Cruz County, California, USA. These assemblies were an opportunity for him to mix a discussion of climate change with rock n' roll. In one song called "Greenhouse Glasses", Peter and his band the "Earth Rangers" wear over-sized clown glasses with "molecules" hanging off them (made with Styrofoam balls and pipe cleaners). Each molecule is the real molecular structure of a greenhouse gas, and the song explains how when the wearer of these glasses looks up in the sky, he/she can see the "greenhouse gases floating by." "I've seen more of them this year than the last / 'Cuz fossil fuels are burning fast / I wish everyone could see through these frames / Then maybe we could prevent climate change" Students sing, dance and get a visual picture of something that is invisible, yet is part of a very real problem. This performance description is used as an example of an educational style that can reach a wide audience and provide a framework for the audience as learners to assimilate future information on climate change. The hypothesis is that complex socio-environmental issues like climate change that must be taught in order to achieve sustainability are best done so through alternative mediums like music. Students develop awareness which leads to knowledge about chemistry, physics, and biology. These kinds of experiences which connect science learning to fun activities and community building are seriously lacking in primary and secondary schools and are a big reason why science illiteracy is a current social problem. Science education is also paired with community awareness (including the local plant/animal community) and cooperation. The Singing Scientist attempts to create a culture where it is cool to care about the environment. Students end up gardening in school gardens together and think about their "ecological footprint".

  7. Challenges and Possibilities in Climate Change Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pruneau,, Diane; Khattabi, Abdellatif; Demers, Melanie

    2010-01-01

    Educating and communicating about climate change is challenging. Researchers reported that climate change concepts are often misunderstood. Some people do not believe that climate change will have impacts on their own life. Other challenges may include people's difficulty in perceiving small or gradual environmental changes, the fact that…

  8. NASA Nice Climate Change Education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frink, K.; Crocker, S.; Jones, W., III; Marshall, S. S.; Anuradha, D.; Stewart-Gurley, K.; Howard, E. M.; Hill, E.; Merriweather, E.

    2013-12-01

    Authors: 1 Kaiem Frink, 4 Sherry Crocker, 5 Willie Jones, III, 7 Sophia S.L. Marshall, 6 Anuadha Dujari 3 Ervin Howard 1 Kalota Stewart-Gurley 8 Edwinta Merriweathe Affiliation: 1. Mathematics & Computer Science, Virginia Union University, Richmond, VA, United States. 2. Mathematics & Computer Science, Elizabeth City State Univ, Elizabeth City, NC, United States. 3. Education, Elizabeth City State University, Elizabeth City, NC, United States. 4. College of Education, Fort Valley State University , Fort Valley, GA, United States. 5. Education, Tougaloo College, Jackson, MS, United States. 6. Mathematics, Delaware State University, Dover, DE, United States. 7. Education, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS, United States. 8. Education, Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical University, Huntsville, AL, United States. ABSTRACT: In this research initiative, the 2013-2014 NASA NICE workshop participants will present best educational practices for incorporating climate change pedagogy. The presentation will identify strategies to enhance instruction of pre-service teachers to aligned with K-12 Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) standards. The presentation of best practices should serve as a direct indicator to address pedagogical needs to include climate education within a K-12 curriculum Some of the strategies will include inquiry, direct instructions, and cooperative learning . At this particular workshop, we have learned about global climate change in regards to how this is going to impact our life. Participants have been charged to increase the scientific understanding of pre-service teachers education programs nationally to incorporate climate education lessons. These recommended practices will provide feasible instructional strategies that can be easily implemented and used to clarify possible misconceptions and ambiguities in scientific knowledge. Additionally, the presentation will promote an awareness to the many facets in which climate

  9. Climate change, environment and allergy.

    PubMed

    Behrendt, Heidrun; Ring, Johannes

    2012-01-01

    Climate change with global warming is a physicometeorological fact that, among other aspects, will also affect human health. Apart from cardiovascular and infectious diseases, allergies seem to be at the forefront of the sequelae of climate change. By increasing temperature and concomitant increased CO(2) concentration, plant growth is affected in various ways leading to prolonged pollination periods in the northern hemisphere, as well as to the appearance of neophytes with allergenic properties, e.g. Ambrosia artemisiifolia (ragweed), in Central Europe. Because of the effects of environmental pollutants, which do not only act as irritants to skin and mucous membranes, allergen carriers such as pollen can be altered in the atmosphere and release allergens leading to allergen-containing aerosols in the ambient air. Pollen has been shown not only to be an allergen carrier, but also to release highly active lipid mediators (pollen-associated lipid mediators), which have proinflammatory and immunomodulating effects enhancing the initiation of allergy. Through the effects of climate change in the future, plant growth may be influenced in a way that more, new and altered pollens are produced, which may affect humans.

  10. Communicating Uncertainties on Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Planton, S.

    2009-09-01

    The term of uncertainty in common language is confusing since it is related in one of its most usual sense to what cannot be known in advance or what is subject to doubt. Its definition in mathematics is unambiguous but not widely shared. It is thus difficult to communicate on this notion through media to a wide public. From its scientific basis to the impact assessment, climate change issue is subject to a large number of sources of uncertainties. In this case, the definition of the term is close to its mathematical sense, but the diversity of disciplines involved in the analysis process implies a great diversity of approaches of the notion. Faced to this diversity of approaches, the issue of communicating uncertainties on climate change is thus a great challenge. It is also complicated by the diversity of the targets of the communication on climate change, from stakeholders and policy makers to a wide public. We will present the process chosen by the IPCC in order to communicate uncertainties in its assessment reports taking the example of the guidance note to lead authors of the fourth assessment report. Concerning the communication of uncertainties to a wide public, we will give some examples aiming at illustrating how to avoid the above-mentioned ambiguity when dealing with this kind of communication.

  11. Past and Current Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mercedes Rodríguez Ruibal, Ma

    2014-05-01

    In 1837 the Swiss geologist and palaeontologist Louis Agassiz was the first scientist to propose the existence of an ice age in the Earth's past. Nearly two centuries after discussing global glacial periods... while the average global temperature is rising very quickly because of our economic and industrial model. In tribute to these pioneers, we have selected a major climate change of the past as the Snowball Earth and, through various activities in the classroom, compared to the current anthropogenic climate change. First, we include multiple geological processes that led to a global glaciation 750 million years ago as the decrease in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4, the effect of climate variations in solar radiation due to emissions of volcanic dust and orbital changes (Milankovitch cycles), being an essential part of this model the feedback mechanism of the albedo of the ice on a geological scale. Moreover, from simple experiments and studies in the classroom this time we can compare the past with the current anthropogenic global warming we are experiencing and some of its consequences, highlighting that affect sea level rise, increased extreme and effects on health and the biosphere weather.

  12. Climate Change and Older Americans: State of the Science

    PubMed Central

    Hurley, Bradford J.; Schultz, Peter A.; Jaglom, Wendy S.; Krishnan, Nisha; Harris, Melinda

    2012-01-01

    Background: Older adults make up 13% of the U.S. population, but are projected to account for 20% by 2040. Coinciding with this demographic shift, the rate of climate change is accelerating, bringing rising temperatures; increased risk of floods, droughts, and wildfires; stronger tropical storms and hurricanes; rising sea levels; and other climate-related hazards. Older Americans are expected to be located in places that may be relatively more affected by climate change, including coastal zones and large metropolitan areas. Objective: The objective of this review is to assess the vulnerability of older Americans to climate change and to identify opportunities for adaptation. Methods: We performed an extensive literature survey and summarized key findings related to demographics; climate stressors relevant to older adults; factors contributing to exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity; and adaptation strategies. Discussion: A range of physiological and socioeconomic factors make older adults especially sensitive to and/or at risk for exposure to heat waves and other extreme weather events (e.g., hurricanes, floods, droughts), poor air quality, and infectious diseases. Climate change may increase the frequency or severity of these events. Conclusions: Older Americans are likely to be especially vulnerable to stressors associated with climate change. Although a growing body of evidence reports the adverse effects of heat on the health of older adults, research gaps remain for other climate-related risks. We need additional study of the vulnerability of older adults and the interplay of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive responses to projected climate stressors. PMID:23033457

  13. Lack of Climate Expertise Among Climate Change Educators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doesken, N.

    2015-12-01

    It is hard to know enough about anything. Many educators fully accept the science as well as the hype associated with climate change and try very hard to be climate literate. But many of these same educators striving for greater climate literacy are surprisingly ignorant about the climate itself (typical seasonal cycles, variations, extremes, spatial patterns and the drivers that produce them). As a result, some of these educators and their students are tempted to interpret each and every hot or cold and wet or dry spell as convincing evidence of climate change even as climate change "skeptics" view those same fluctuations as normal. Educators' overreaction risks a backfire reaction resulting in loss of credibility among the very groups they are striving to educate and influence. This presentation will include reflections on climate change education and impacts based on 4 decades of climate communication in Colorado.

  14. Mars Recent Climate Change Workshop

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haberle, Robert M.; Owen, Sandra J.

    2012-11-01

    Mars Recent Climate Change Workshop NASA/Ames Research Center May 15-17, 2012 Climate change on Mars has been a subject of great interest to planetary scientists since the 1970's when orbiting spacecraft first discovered fluvial landforms on its ancient surfaces and layered terrains in its polar regions. By far most of the attention has been directed toward understanding how "Early Mars" (i.e., Mars >~3.5 Gya) could have produced environmental conditions favorable for the flow of liquid water on its surface. Unfortunately, in spite of the considerable body of work performed on this subject, no clear consensus has emerged on the nature of the early Martian climate system because of the difficulty in distinguishing between competing ideas given the ambiguities in the available geological, mineralogical, and isotopic records. For several reasons, however, the situation is more tractable for "Recent Mars" (i.e., Mars during past 20 My or so). First, the geologic record is better preserved and evidence for climate change on this time scale has been building since the rejuvenation of the Mars Exploration Program in the late 1990's. The increasing coverage of the planet from orbit and the surface, coupled with accurate measurements of surface topography, increasing spatial resolution of imaging cameras, improved spectral resolution of infrared sensors, and the ability to probe the subsurface with radar, gamma rays, and neutron spectroscopy, has not only improved the characterization of previously known climate features such as polar layered terrains and glacier-related landforms, but has also revealed the existence of many new features related to recent climate change such as polygons, gullies, concentric crater fill, and a latitude dependent mantle. Second, the likely cause of climate change - spin axis/orbital variations - is more pronounced on Mars compared to Earth. Spin axis/orbital variations alter the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of sunlight, which can

  15. Exploring the Multifaceted Topic of Climate Change in Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

    2015-12-01

    As the effects of climate change become more profound, climate literacy becomes increasingly important. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) responds to this need through the publication of Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate. Both publications incorporate the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the USGCRP's Third National Climate Assessment. Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive, multidisciplinary information related to various topics. Additionally, each chapter closes with a For Further Exploration essay, which addresses specific topics that complement a chapter concept. Web Resources, which encourage additional exploration of chapter content, and Scientific Literature, from which chapter content was derived can also be found at the conclusion of each chapter. Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics, including the scientific principles that govern Earth's climate system and basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate the system. Released in fall 2015, Living With Our Changing Climate takes a more narrow approach and investigates human and ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change, the role of energy choices in affecting climate, actions humans can take through adaption, mitigation, and policy to lessen vulnerabilities, and psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial. While Living With Our Changing Climate is intended for programs looking to add a climate element into their curriculum, Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course. In a 2015 survey of California University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students using Our Changing Climate, 82% found it comfortable to read and utilized its interactive components and resources. Both ebooks illuminate the multidisciplinary aspect of climate change, providing the opportunity for a more sustainable future.

  16. Global Climate Change and the Mitigation Challenge

    EPA Science Inventory

    Book edited by Frank Princiotta titled Global Climate Change--The Technology Challenge Transparent modeling tools and the most recent literature are used, to quantify the challenge posed by climate change and potential technological remedies. The chapter examines forces driving ...

  17. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Biodiversity Conservation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change threatens to create fundamental shifts in in the distributions and abundances of species. Given projected losses, increased emphasis on management for ecosystem resilience to help buffer fish and wildlife populations against climate change is emerging. Such effort...

  18. The Educational Challenges of Climate Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McClaren, Milton; Hammond, William

    2000-01-01

    Explains five concepts that are vital for the design or implementation of programs on global climate change. Discusses different approaches for how global climate change should be taught. (Contains 20 references.) (YDS)

  1. HOW WILL GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT PARASITES?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    : Parasites are integral components of complex biotic assemblages that comprise the biosphere. Host switching correlated with episodic climate-change events are common in evolutionary and ecological time. Global climate change produces ecological perturbation, manifested in major geographical/pheno...

  2. The science of climate change.

    SciTech Connect

    Doctor, R. D.

    1999-09-10

    A complex debate is underway on climate change linked to proposals for costly measures that would reshape our power grid. This confronts technical experts outside of the geophysical disciplines with extensive, but unfamiliar, data both supporting and refuting claims that serious action is warranted. For example, evidence is brought to the table from one group of astrophysicists concerned with sunspots--this group believes there is no issue man can manage; while another group of oceanographers concerned with the heat balance in the world's oceans are very alarmed at the loss of arctic ice. What is the evidence? In an effort to put some of these issues in perspective for a technical audience, without a background in geophysics, a brief survey will consider (1) an overview of the 300 years of scientific inquiry on man's relationship to climate; (2) a basic discussion of what is meant by the ''greenhouse'' and why there are concerns which include not only CO{sub 2}, but also CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, and CFC's; (3) the geological record on CO{sub 2}--which likely was present at 1,000 times current levels when life began; (4) the solar luminosity and sunspot question; and (5) the current evidence for global climate change. We are at a juncture where we are attempting to understand the earth as an integrated dynamic system, rather than a collection of isolated components.

  3. Terrestrial ecosystems and climatic change

    SciTech Connect

    Emanuel, W.R. ); Schimel, D.S. . Natural Resources Ecology Lab.)

    1990-01-01

    The structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems depend on climate, and in turn, ecosystems influence atmospheric composition and climate. A comprehensive, global model of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics is needed. A hierarchical approach appears advisable given currently available concepts, data, and formalisms. The organization of models can be based on the temporal scales involved. A rapidly responding model describes the processes associated with photosynthesis, including carbon, moisture, and heat exchange with the atmosphere. An intermediate model handles subannual variations that are closely associated with allocation and seasonal changes in productivity and decomposition. A slow response model describes plant growth and succession with associated element cycling over decades and centuries. These three levels of terrestrial models are linked through common specifications of environmental conditions and constrain each other. 58 refs.

  4. Climate Change and Water in Vulnerable Agriculture: Impacts - Mitigation - Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dalezios, Nicolas; Tarquis, Ana Maria

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture highly depends on climate and is adversely affected by climate extremes caused mainly by anthropogenic climate change and increasing climate variability. Moreover, agricultural production risks and vulnerability of agriculture may become an issue in several regions around the world, since they are likely to increase the incidence of crop failure. The aim of this paper is to present the water availability and requirements in Southern Europe and specifically in the Mediterranean region, which is characterized by vulnerable agriculture. Indeed, the climatic trend in the 21st century for this region indicates temperature increase, precipitation decrease combined with an increase in the frequency of climate extremes, such as droughts, heat waves and forest fires. The three major components of climate change are examined, namely impacts, mitigation and adaptation. In particular, precipitation frequency analysis has already indicated a reduction in the precipitation amounts and a shift towards more intense rainstorms. Moreover, time series of drought indices are presented in affected areas. The importance of climate change mitigation measures is also highlighted. Finally, an adaptation scheme for agriculture from climate change in vulnerable and water scarce areas is presented.

  5. Recent Climatic Changes over Kazakhstan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akhmadiyeva, Z. K.; Groisman, P. Y.

    2008-12-01

    We used a comprehensive archive of daily in situ meteorological information for Republic of Kazakhstan created by joint efforts of the Kazakh Scientific Research Institute of Ecology and Climate of the Ministry of Environment Protection of the Republic of Kazakhstan, All-Russian Research Institute for Hydrometeorological Information-World Data Center of the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, Obninsk, Russian Federation, and the NOAA National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina. Archive includes the data of 351 synoptic stations and spans the period of instrumental observations with the best data coverage during the 1936-2006 period. This period was used to assess climatology and the latest (since 1990) climatic changes in surface air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and the near surface wind speed and atmospheric pressure over Kazakhstan. We found that during the last two decades (1990-2006) compared to the previous three decades, surface air temperature, T, in Kazakhstan increased by 1 to 2 K in winter, spring, and autumn (with the maximum warming in the autumn) but not in summers where a cooling was observed in the central parts of the nation. Changes in relative humidity were symmetric and negatively correlated with T: reporting drier surface air conditions in winter, spring, and autumn and an increase in the mean summer relative humidity values. Countrywide, annual precipitation did not change substantially (it somewhat increased in winter and summer, but mostly decreased in the intermediate seasons). The largest change signal found is a substantial nationwide decrease of the wind speed at 10 m above the ground in all seasons.

  6. Physiological ecology meets climate change

    PubMed Central

    Bozinovic, Francisco; Pörtner, Hans-Otto

    2015-01-01

    In this article, we pointed out that understanding the physiology of differential climate change effects on organisms is one of the many urgent challenges faced in ecology and evolutionary biology. We explore how physiological ecology can contribute to a holistic view of climate change impacts on organisms and ecosystems and their evolutionary responses. We suggest that theoretical and experimental efforts not only need to improve our understanding of thermal limits to organisms, but also to consider multiple stressors both on land and in the oceans. As an example, we discuss recent efforts to understand the effects of various global change drivers on aquatic ectotherms in the field that led to the development of the concept of oxygen and capacity limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT) as a framework integrating various drivers and linking organisational levels from ecosystem to organism, tissue, cell, and molecules. We suggest seven core objectives of a comprehensive research program comprising the interplay among physiological, ecological, and evolutionary approaches for both aquatic and terrestrial organisms. While studies of individual aspects are already underway in many laboratories worldwide, integration of these findings into conceptual frameworks is needed not only within one organism group such as animals but also across organism domains such as Archaea, Bacteria, and Eukarya. Indeed, development of unifying concepts is relevant for interpreting existing and future findings in a coherent way and for projecting the future ecological and evolutionary effects of climate change on functional biodiversity. We also suggest that OCLTT may in the end and from an evolutionary point of view, be able to explain the limited thermal tolerance of metazoans when compared to other organisms. PMID:25798220

  7. Physiological ecology meets climate change.

    PubMed

    Bozinovic, Francisco; Pörtner, Hans-Otto

    2015-03-01

    In this article, we pointed out that understanding the physiology of differential climate change effects on organisms is one of the many urgent challenges faced in ecology and evolutionary biology. We explore how physiological ecology can contribute to a holistic view of climate change impacts on organisms and ecosystems and their evolutionary responses. We suggest that theoretical and experimental efforts not only need to improve our understanding of thermal limits to organisms, but also to consider multiple stressors both on land and in the oceans. As an example, we discuss recent efforts to understand the effects of various global change drivers on aquatic ectotherms in the field that led to the development of the concept of oxygen and capacity limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT) as a framework integrating various drivers and linking organisational levels from ecosystem to organism, tissue, cell, and molecules. We suggest seven core objectives of a comprehensive research program comprising the interplay among physiological, ecological, and evolutionary approaches for both aquatic and terrestrial organisms. While studies of individual aspects are already underway in many laboratories worldwide, integration of these findings into conceptual frameworks is needed not only within one organism group such as animals but also across organism domains such as Archaea, Bacteria, and Eukarya. Indeed, development of unifying concepts is relevant for interpreting existing and future findings in a coherent way and for projecting the future ecological and evolutionary effects of climate change on functional biodiversity. We also suggest that OCLTT may in the end and from an evolutionary point of view, be able to explain the limited thermal tolerance of metazoans when compared to other organisms.

  8. Physiological ecology meets climate change.

    PubMed

    Bozinovic, Francisco; Pörtner, Hans-Otto

    2015-03-01

    In this article, we pointed out that understanding the physiology of differential climate change effects on organisms is one of the many urgent challenges faced in ecology and evolutionary biology. We explore how physiological ecology can contribute to a holistic view of climate change impacts on organisms and ecosystems and their evolutionary responses. We suggest that theoretical and experimental efforts not only need to improve our understanding of thermal limits to organisms, but also to consider multiple stressors both on land and in the oceans. As an example, we discuss recent efforts to understand the effects of various global change drivers on aquatic ectotherms in the field that led to the development of the concept of oxygen and capacity limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT) as a framework integrating various drivers and linking organisational levels from ecosystem to organism, tissue, cell, and molecules. We suggest seven core objectives of a comprehensive research program comprising the interplay among physiological, ecological, and evolutionary approaches for both aquatic and terrestrial organisms. While studies of individual aspects are already underway in many laboratories worldwide, integration of these findings into conceptual frameworks is needed not only within one organism group such as animals but also across organism domains such as Archaea, Bacteria, and Eukarya. Indeed, development of unifying concepts is relevant for interpreting existing and future findings in a coherent way and for projecting the future ecological and evolutionary effects of climate change on functional biodiversity. We also suggest that OCLTT may in the end and from an evolutionary point of view, be able to explain the limited thermal tolerance of metazoans when compared to other organisms. PMID:25798220

  9. Climate Change Ignorance: An Unacceptable Legacy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boon, Helen J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change effects will be most acutely felt by future generations. Recent prior research has shown that school students' knowledge of climate change science is very limited in rural Australia. The purpose of this study was to assess the capacity of preservice teachers and parents to transmit climate change information and understanding to…

  10. Climate Change Education for Mitigation and Adaptation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Allison

    2012-01-01

    This article makes the case for the education sector an untapped opportunity to combat climate change. It sets forth a definition of Climate Change Education for Sustainable Development that is comprehensive and multidisciplinary and asserts that it must not only include relevant content knowledge on climate change, environmental and social…

  11. Climate change and farmers' mental health: risks and responses.

    PubMed

    Berry, Helen L; Hogan, Anthony; Owen, Jennifer; Rickwood, Debra; Fragar, Lyn

    2011-03-01

    Climate change is exacerbating climate variability, evident in more frequent and severe weather-related disasters, such as droughts, fires, and floods. Most of what is known about the possible effects of climate change on rural mental health relates to prolonged drought. But though drought is known to be a disproportionate and general stressor, evidence is mixed and inconclusive. Over time, like drought other weather-related disasters may erode the social and economic bases on which farming communities depend. Rural vulnerability to mental health problems is greatly increased by socioeconomic disadvantage. Related factors may compound this, such as reduced access to health services as communities decline and a "stoical" culture that inhibits help-seeking. Australia has the world's most variable climate and is a major global agricultural producer. Yet despite Australia's (and, especially, rural communities') dependence on farmers' well-being and success, there is very little-and inconclusive-quantitative evidence about farmers' mental health. The aim of this review is to consider, with a view to informing other countries, how climate change and related factors may affect farmers' mental health in Australia. That information is a prerequisite to identifying, selecting, and evaluating adaptive strategies, to lessen the risks of adverse mental health outcomes. The authors identify the need for a systematic epidemiology of the mental health of farmers facing increasing climate change- related weather adversity.

  12. Assessing the Agricultural Vulnerability for India under Changing Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, Tarul; Vardhan Murari, Harsha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal; Singh, Jitendra

    2016-04-01

    Global climate change has proven to show majorly negative impacts for the far future. These negative impacts adversely affect almost all the fields including agriculture, water resources, tourism, and marine ecosystem. Among these, the effects on agriculture are considered to be of prime importance since its regional impacts can directly affect the global food security. Under such lines, it becomes essential to understand how climate change directs agricultural production for a region along with its vulnerability. In India, rice and wheat are considered as major staple diet and hence understanding its production loss/gain due to regional vulnerability to climate change becomes necessary. Here, an attempt has been made to understand the agricultural vulnerability for rice and wheat, considering yield as a function of temperature and precipitation during growing period. In order to accomplish this objective, the ratio of actual to potential evapo-transpiration has been considered which serves as a reliable indicator; with more this ratio towards unity, less vulnerable will be the region. The current objective needs an integration of climatic, hydrological and agricultural parameters; that can be achieved by simulating a climate data driven hydrologic (Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC) model and a crop (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT) model. The proposed framework is an attempt to derive a crop vulnerability map that can facilitate in strategizing adaption practices which can reduce the adverse impacts of climate change in future.

  13. Psychological research and global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clayton, Susan; Devine-Wright, Patrick; Stern, Paul C.; Whitmarsh, Lorraine; Carrico, Amanda; Steg, Linda; Swim, Janet; Bonnes, Mirilia

    2015-07-01

    Human behaviour is integral not only to causing global climate change but also to responding and adapting to it. Here, we argue that psychological research should inform efforts to address climate change, to avoid misunderstandings about human behaviour and motivations that can lead to ineffective or misguided policies. We review three key research areas: describing human perceptions of climate change; understanding and changing individual and household behaviour that drives climate change; and examining the human impacts of climate change and adaptation responses. Although much has been learned in these areas, we suggest important directions for further research.

  14. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review.

    PubMed

    Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

    2014-11-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

  15. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review.

    PubMed

    Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

    2014-11-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades.

  16. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

    PubMed Central

    Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

  17. Conceptualizing Climate Change in the Context of a Climate System: Implications for Climate and Environmental Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Roychoudhury, Anita; Hirsch, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Today there is much interest in teaching secondary students about climate change. Much of this effort has focused directly on students' understanding of climate change. We hypothesize, however, that in order for students to understand climate change they must first understand climate as a system and how changes to this system due to both natural…

  18. Come rain or shine? Public expectation on local weather change and differential effects on climate change attitude.

    PubMed

    Lo, Alex Y; Jim, C Y

    2015-11-01

    Tailored messages are instrumental to climate change communication. Information about the global threat can be 'localised' by demonstrating its linkage with local events. This research ascertains the relationship between climate change attitude and perception of local weather, based on a survey involving 800 Hong Kong citizens. Results indicate that concerns about climate change increase with expectations about the likelihood and impacts of local weather change. Climate change believers attend to all three types of adverse weather events, namely, temperature rises, tropical cyclones and prolonged rains. Climate scepticism, however, is not associated with expectation about prolonged rains. Differential spatial orientations are a possible reason. Global climate change is an unprecedented and distant threat, whereas local rain is a more familiar and localised weather event. Global climate change should be articulated in terms that respect local concerns. Localised framing may be particularly effective for engaging individuals holding positive views about climate change science.

  19. Using Satellites to Understand Climate and Climate Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fetzer, Eric

    2007-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews the measurement of climate with the use of satellites. The basic greenhouse effect, Ice-albedo feedback, climate models and observations, aerosol-cloud interactions, and the Antarctic are discussed, along with the human effect on climate change.

  20. Global Climate Change and Agriculture

    SciTech Connect

    Izaurralde, Roberto C.

    2009-01-01

    The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released in 2007 significantly increased our confidence about the role that humans play in forcing climate change. There is now a high degree of confidence that the (a) current atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) far exceed those of the pre-industrial era, (b) global increases in CO2 arise mainly from fossil fuel use and land use change while those of CH4 and N2O originate primarily from agricultural activities, and (c) the net effect of human activities since 1750 has led to a warming of the lower layers of the atmosphere, with an increased radiative forcing of 1.6 W m-2. Depending on the scenario of human population growth and global development, mean global temperatures could rise between 1.8 and 4.0 °C by the end of the 21st century.

  1. Climate Change: A Controlled Experiment

    SciTech Connect

    Wullschleger, Stan D; Strahl, Maya

    2010-01-01

    Researchers are altering temperature, carbon dioxide and precipitation levels across plots of forests, grasses and crops to see how plant life responds. Warmer temperatures and higher CO{sub 2} concentrations generally result in more leaf growth or crop yield, but these factors can also raise insect infestation and weaken plants ability to ward off pests and disease. Future field experiments that can manipulate all three conditions at once will lead to better models of how long-term climate changes will affect ecosystems worldwide.

  2. Virgin's Knight tackles climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banks, Michael

    2008-11-01

    "There is no greater or more immediate challenge than that posed by climate change," said Sir Richard Branson, chairman of the Virgin group, via video-link at the 59th International Astronautical Congress (IAC) held in Glasgow in the UK at the end of September. That grand statement may seem like a lot of hot air for the entrepreneur best known for his attempt to circumnavigate the globe by balloon. But Branson went on to reveal that Virgin Galactic, which aims to fly passengers 100 km into space for 200 000 per trip, will also provide room on its craft for a series of scientific experiments to study the Earth's atmosphere.

  3. Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ledley, Tamara S.; Sundquist, Eric; Schwartz, Stephen; Hall, Dorothy K.; Fellows, Jack; Killeen, Timothy

    1999-01-01

    The American Geophysical Union (AGU), as a scientific organization devoted to research on the Earth and space sciences, provides current scientific information to the public on issues pertinent to geophysics. The Council of the AGU approved a position statement on Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases in December 1998. The statement, together with a short summary of the procedures that were followed in its preparation, review, and adoption were published in the February 2, 1999 issue of Eos ([AGU, 1999]. The present article reviews scientific understanding of this issue as presented in peer-reviewed publications that serves as the underlying basis of the position statement.

  4. Climate change and global infectious disease threats.

    PubMed

    Jackson, E K

    The world's climate is warming up and, while debate continues about how much change we can expect, it is becoming clear that even small changes in climate can have major effects on the spread of disease. Erwin K Jackson, a member of Greenpeace International's Climate Impacts Unit and a delegate to the 11th session of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Rome, 11-15 December), reviews the scientific evidence of this new global threat to health.

  5. Rapid adaptation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Hancock, Angela M

    2016-08-01

    In recent years, amid growing concerns that changing climate is affecting species distributions and ecosystems, predicting responses to rapid environmental change has become a major goal. In this issue, Franks and colleagues take a first step towards this objective (Franks et al. 2016). They examine genomewide signatures of selection in populations of Brassica rapa after a severe multiyear drought. Together with other authors, Franks had previously shown that flowering time was reduced after this particular drought and that the reduction was genetically encoded. Now, the authors have sequenced previously stored samples to compare allele frequencies before and after the drought and identify the loci with the most extreme shifts in frequencies. The loci they identify largely differ between populations, suggesting that different genetic variants may be responsible for reduction in flowering time in the two populations.

  6. [Climate change and Kyoto protocol].

    PubMed

    Ergasti, G; Pippia, V; Murzilli, G; De Luca D'Alessandro, E

    2009-01-01

    Due to industrial revolution and the heavy use of fossil fuels, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased dramatically during the last hundred years, and this has lead to an increase in mean global temperature. The environmental consequences of this are: the melting of the ice caps, an increase in mean sea-levels, catastrophic events such as floodings, hurricanes and earthquakes, changes to the animal and vegetable kingdoms, a growth in vectors and bacteria in water thus increasing the risk of infectious diseases and damage to agriculture. The toxic effects of the pollution on human health are both acute and chronic. The Kyoto Protocol is an important step in the campaign against climatic changes but it is not sufficient. A possible solution might be for the States which produce the most of pollution to adopt a better political stance for the environment and to use renewable resources for the production of energy.

  7. Rapid adaptation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Hancock, Angela M

    2016-08-01

    In recent years, amid growing concerns that changing climate is affecting species distributions and ecosystems, predicting responses to rapid environmental change has become a major goal. In this issue, Franks and colleagues take a first step towards this objective (Franks et al. 2016). They examine genomewide signatures of selection in populations of Brassica rapa after a severe multiyear drought. Together with other authors, Franks had previously shown that flowering time was reduced after this particular drought and that the reduction was genetically encoded. Now, the authors have sequenced previously stored samples to compare allele frequencies before and after the drought and identify the loci with the most extreme shifts in frequencies. The loci they identify largely differ between populations, suggesting that different genetic variants may be responsible for reduction in flowering time in the two populations. PMID:27463237

  8. Science Teachers' Perspectives about Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dawson, Vaille

    2012-01-01

    Climate change and its effects are likely to present challenging problems for future generations of young people. It is important for Australian students to understand the mechanisms and consequences of climate change. If students are to develop a sophisticated understanding, then science teachers need to be well-informed about climate change…

  9. Contributions of Psychology to Limiting Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stern, Paul C.

    2011-01-01

    Psychology can make a significant contribution to limiting the magnitude of climate change by improving understanding of human behaviors that drive climate change and human reactions to climate-related technologies and policies, and by turning that understanding into effective interventions. This article develops a framework for psychological…

  10. Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

    PubMed

    Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.

  11. Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

    PubMed

    Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered. PMID:23185568

  12. Climate change and human health: present and future risks.

    PubMed

    McMichael, Anthony J; Woodruff, Rosalie E; Hales, Simon

    2006-03-11

    There is near unanimous scientific consensus that greenhouse gas emissions generated by human activity will change Earth's climate. The recent (globally averaged) warming by 0.5 degrees C is partly attributable to such anthropogenic emissions. Climate change will affect human health in many ways-mostly adversely. Here, we summarise the epidemiological evidence of how climate variations and trends affect various health outcomes. We assess the little evidence there is that recent global warming has already affected some health outcomes. We review the published estimates of future health effects of climate change over coming decades. Research so far has mostly focused on thermal stress, extreme weather events, and infectious diseases, with some attention to estimates of future regional food yields and hunger prevalence. An emerging broader approach addresses a wider spectrum of health risks due to the social, demographic, and economic disruptions of climate change. Evidence and anticipation of adverse health effects will strengthen the case for pre-emptive policies, and will also guide priorities for planned adaptive strategies.

  13. Compounding of uncertainty in climate change scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Pielke, R.A.; Zeng, X.

    1994-12-31

    The development of realistic climate change scenarios requires consideration of the range of potential feedbacks between the atmosphere, the oceans, and the land surface. Such an understanding is essential in order to adequately describe natural climate variability and man-made climate change, as well as the uncertainty in their ability to represent the physical and biogeochemical process in the modeling of climate. There are serious misconceptions, however, regarding the use of models to estimate climate change. First, general circulation models (GCMs) are not global climate models, and although ocean feedbacks have begun to be included in GCMs, current state-of-the-art GCMs are incomplete tools to be used to represent the entire spectrum of potential climate change. The GCMs provide only a subset of possible future climate conditions and represent sensitivity experiments, not prebiogeophysical feedbacks that are sufficiently nonlinear.

  14. Abrupt climate change: can society cope?

    PubMed

    Hulme, Mike

    2003-09-15

    Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being

  15. Abrupt climate change: can society cope?

    PubMed

    Hulme, Mike

    2003-09-15

    Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being

  16. Climate change and environmental concentrations of POPs: A review.

    PubMed

    Nadal, Martí; Marquès, Montse; Mari, Montse; Domingo, José L

    2015-11-01

    In recent years, the climate change impact on the concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) has become a topic of notable concern. Changes in environmental conditions such as the increase of the average temperature, or the UV-B radiation, are likely to influence the fate and behavior of POPs, ultimately affecting human exposure. The state of the art of the impact of climate change on environmental concentrations of POPs, as well as on human health risks, is here reviewed. Research gaps are also identified, while future studies are suggested. Climate change and POPs are a hot issue, for which wide attention should be paid not only by scientists, but also and mainly by policy makers. Most studies reported in the scientific literature are focused on legacy POPs, mainly polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and pesticides. However, the number of investigations aimed at estimating the impact of climate change on the environmental levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is scarce, despite of the fact that exposure to PAHs and photodegradation byproducts may result in adverse health effects. Furthermore, no data on emerging POPs are currently available in the scientific literature. In consequence, an intensification of studies to identify and mitigate the indirect effects of the climate change on POP fate is needed to minimize the human health impact. Furthermore, being this a global problem, interactions between climate change and POPs must be addressed from an international perspective. PMID:26496851

  17. Climate change and environmental concentrations of POPs: A review.

    PubMed

    Nadal, Martí; Marquès, Montse; Mari, Montse; Domingo, José L

    2015-11-01

    In recent years, the climate change impact on the concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) has become a topic of notable concern. Changes in environmental conditions such as the increase of the average temperature, or the UV-B radiation, are likely to influence the fate and behavior of POPs, ultimately affecting human exposure. The state of the art of the impact of climate change on environmental concentrations of POPs, as well as on human health risks, is here reviewed. Research gaps are also identified, while future studies are suggested. Climate change and POPs are a hot issue, for which wide attention should be paid not only by scientists, but also and mainly by policy makers. Most studies reported in the scientific literature are focused on legacy POPs, mainly polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and pesticides. However, the number of investigations aimed at estimating the impact of climate change on the environmental levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is scarce, despite of the fact that exposure to PAHs and photodegradation byproducts may result in adverse health effects. Furthermore, no data on emerging POPs are currently available in the scientific literature. In consequence, an intensification of studies to identify and mitigate the indirect effects of the climate change on POP fate is needed to minimize the human health impact. Furthermore, being this a global problem, interactions between climate change and POPs must be addressed from an international perspective.

  18. Climate Change and Children's Health: A Commentary.

    PubMed

    Stanley, Fiona; Farrant, Brad

    2015-10-15

    This commentary describes the likely impacts on children's health and wellbeing from climate change, based on the solid science of environmental child health. It describes likely climate change scenarios, why children are more vulnerable than older people to these changes, and what to expect in terms of diseases (e.g., infections, asthma) and problems (e.g., malnutrition, mental illness). The common antecedents of climate change and other detrimental changes to our society mean that in combatting them (such as excessive consumption and greed), we may not only reduce the harmful effects of climate change but also work towards a better society overall-one that values its children and their futures.

  19. Climate Change Education in Earth System Science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hänsel, Stephanie; Matschullat, Jörg

    2013-04-01

    The course "Atmospheric Research - Climate Change" is offered to master Earth System Science students within the specialisation "Climate and Environment" at the Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg. This module takes a comprehensive approach to climate sciences, reaching from the natural sciences background of climate change via the social components of the issue to the statistical analysis of changes in climate parameters. The course aims at qualifying the students to structure the physical and chemical basics of the climate system including relevant feedbacks. The students can evaluate relevant drivers of climate variability and change on various temporal and spatial scales and can transform knowledge from climate history to the present and the future. Special focus is given to the assessment of uncertainties related to climate observations and projections as well as the specific challenges of extreme weather and climate events. At the end of the course the students are able to critically reflect and evaluate climate change related results of scientific studies and related issues in media. The course is divided into two parts - "Climate Change" and "Climate Data Analysis" and encompasses two lectures, one seminar and one exercise. The weekly "Climate change" lecture transmits the physical and chemical background for climate variation and change. (Pre)historical, observed and projected climate changes and their effects on various sectors are being introduced and discussed regarding their implications for society, economics, ecology and politics. The related seminar presents and discusses the multiple reasons for controversy in climate change issues, based on various texts. Students train the presentation of scientific content and the discussion of climate change aspects. The biweekly lecture on "Climate data analysis" introduces the most relevant statistical tools and methods in climate science. Starting with checking data quality via tools of exploratory

  20. Climate Cases: Learning about Student Conceptualizations of Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tierney, Benjamin P.

    2013-01-01

    The complex topic of global climate change continues to be a challenging yet important topic among science educators and researchers. This mixed methods study adds to the growing research by investigating student conceptions of climate change from a system theory perspective (Von Bertalanffy, 1968) by asking the question, "How do differences…

  1. Economic Consequences Of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szlávik, János; Füle, Miklós

    2009-07-01

    Even though the climate conflict resulting from green houses gases (GHG) emissions was evident by the Nineties and the well-known agreements made, their enforcement is more difficult than that of other environmental agreements. That is because measures to reduce GHG emissions interfere with the heart of the economy and the market: energy (in a broader sense than the energy sector as defined by statistics) and economical growth. Analyzing the environmental policy responses to climate change the conclusion is that GHG emission reduction can only be achieved through intensive environmental policy. While extensive environmental protection complements production horizontally, intensive environmental protection integrates into production and the environment vertically. The latter eliminates the source of the pollution, preventing damage. It utilizes the biochemical processes and self-purification of the natural environment as well as technical development which not only aims to produce state-of-the-art goods, but to make production more environmentally friendly, securing a desired environmental state. While in extensive environmental protection the intervention comes from the outside for creating environmental balance, in intensive environmental protection the system recreates this balance itself. Instead of dealing with the consequences and the polluter pays principle, the emphasis is on prevention. It is important to emphasize that climate strategy decisions have complex effects regarding the aspects of sustainability (economical, social, ecological). Therefore, all decisions are political. At present, and in the near future, market economy decisions have little to do with sustainability values under normal circumstances. Taking social and ecological interests into consideration can only be successful through strategic political aims.

  2. Responding to the Consequences of Climate Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hildebrand, Peter H.

    2011-01-01

    The talk addresses the scientific consensus concerning climate change, and outlines the many paths that are open to mitigate climate change and its effects on human activities. Diverse aspects of the changing water cycle on Earth are used to illustrate the reality climate change. These include melting snowpack, glaciers, and sea ice; changes in runoff; rising sea level; moving ecosystems, an more. Human forcing of climate change is then explained, including: greenhouse gasses, atmospheric aerosols, and changes in land use. Natural forcing effects are briefly discussed, including volcanoes and changes in the solar cycle. Returning to Earth's water cycle, the effects of climate-induced changes in water resources is presented. Examples include wildfires, floods and droughts, changes in the production and availability of food, and human social reactions to these effects. The lk then passes to a discussion of common human reactions to these forecasts of climate change effects, with a summary of recent research on the subject, plus several recent historical examples of large-scale changes in human behavior that affect the climate and ecosystems. Finally, in the face for needed action on climate, the many options for mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects are presented, with examples of the ability to take affordable, and profitable action at most all levels, from the local, through national.

  3. Covering Climate Change in Wikipedia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arritt, R. W.; Connolley, W.; Ramjohn, I.; Schulz, S.; Wickert, A. D.

    2010-12-01

    The first hit in an internet search for "global warming" using any of the three leading search engines (Google, Bing, or Yahoo) is the article "Global warming" in the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. The article garners about half a million page views per month. In addition to the site's visibility with the public, Wikipedia's articles on climate-related topics are widely referenced by policymakers, media outlets, and academia. Despite the site's strong influence on public understanding of science, few geoscientists actively participate in Wikipedia, with the result that the community that edits these articles is mostly composed of individuals with little or no expertise in the topic at hand. In this presentation we discuss how geoscientists can help shape public understanding of science by contributing to Wikipedia. Although Wikipedia prides itself on being "the encyclopedia that anyone can edit," the site has policies regarding contributions and behavior that can be pitfalls for newcomers. This presentation is intended as a guide for the geoscience community in contributing to information about climate change in this widely-used reference.

  4. Educating Local Audiences about Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cullen, H. M.; Satterfield, D.; Allen, M. R.

    2014-12-01

    This talk will focus on best practices for educating local audiences about climate science and the importance of providing the larger climate context during extreme weather events, when audiences are particularly interested in the climate connection. In their role as Station Scientists, local television meteorologists serve an important function in educating viewers about climate change and its' associated impacts. Through its' Climate Matters program, Climate Central works to support local television meteorologists in their outreach efforts. Launched in 2010 with support from the National Science Foundation, the program has grown into a network that includes more than 150 weathercasters from across the country. Climate Matters delivers information on climate at the regional and local level, providing ready-to-use, broadcast quality graphics and analyses that put climate change into a local context.

  5. Environmental Education and the Health Professions: Framing Climate Change as a Health Issue

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Adlong, William; Dietsch, Elaine

    2015-01-01

    The likelihood of adverse health impacts from climate change is high. Actions to reduce emissions, however, not only mitigate climate change but often have more immediate health co-benefits. One substantial co-benefit is gained through reductions of the high health costs of pollution from fossil fuel power stations, particularly coal. Evidence…

  6. Geomagnetic excursions and climate change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rampino, M. R.

    1983-01-01

    Rampino argues that although Kent (1982) demonstrated that the intensity of natural remanent magnetism (NRM) in deep-sea sediments is sensitive to changes in sediment type, and hence is not an accurate indicator of the true strength of the geomagnetic field, it does not offer an alternative explanation for the proposed connections between excursions, climate, and orbital parameters. Kent replies by illustrating some of the problems associated with geomagnetic excursions by considering the record of proposed excursions in a single critical core. The large departure from an axial dipole field direction seen in a part of the sample is probably due to a distorted record; the drawing and storage of the sample, which is described, could easily have led to disturbance and distortion of the record.

  7. Engaging a moving target: Adapting to rates of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shayegh, S.; Caldeira, K.; Moreno-Cruz, J.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is affecting the planet and its human and natural systems at an increasing rate. As temperatures continue to rise, the international community has increasingly been considering adaptation measures to prepare for future climate change. However, most discussion around adaptation strategies has focused on preparedness for some expected amount of climate change impacts, e.g. 2 meters sea level rise. In this study, we discuss adaptation to rates of change as an alternative conceptual framework for thinking about adaptation. Adaptation is not only about adapting to amounts of change, but the rate at which these changes occur is also critically important. We ground our discussion with an example of optimal coastal investment in the face of ongoing sea level rise. Sea level rise threatens coastal assets. Finite resources could be devoted to building infrastructure further inland or to building coastal defense systems. A possible policy response could be to create a "no-build" coastal buffer zone that anticipates a future higher sea level. We present a quantitative model that illustrates the interplay among various important factors (rate of sea level rise, discount rate, capital depreciation rate, attractiveness of coastal land, etc). For some cases, strategies that combine periodic defensive investments (e.g. dikes) with planned retreat can maximize welfare when adapting to rates of climate change. In other cases, planned retreat may be optimal. It is important to prepare for ongoing increasing amounts of climate change. Preparing for a fixed amount of climate change can lead to a suboptimal solution. Climate is likely to continue changing throughout this century and beyond. To reduce adverse climate impacts, ecosystems and human systems will need to continuously adapt to a moving target.

  8. Statistical principles for climate change studies

    SciTech Connect

    Levine, R.A.; Berliner, L.M. |

    1999-02-01

    Predictions of climate change due to human-induced increases in greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations have been an ongoing arena for debate and discussion. A major difficulty in early detection of changes resulting from anthropogenic forcing of the climate system is that the natural climate variability overwhelms the climate change signal in observed data. Statistical principles underlying fingerprint methods for detecting a climate change signal above natural climate variations and attributing the potential signal to specific anthropogenic forcings are discussed. The climate change problem is introduced through an exposition of statistical issues in modeling the climate signal and natural climate variability. The fingerprint approach is shown to be analogous to optimal hypothesis testing procedures from the classical statistics literature. The statistical formulation of the fingerprint scheme suggests new insights into the implementation of the techniques for climate change studies. In particular, the statistical testing ideas are exploited to introduce alternative procedures within the fingerprint model for attribution of climate change and to shed light on practical issues in applying the fingerprint detection strategies.

  9. The economics of abrupt climate change.

    PubMed

    Perrings, Charles

    2003-09-15

    The US National Research Council defines abrupt climate change as a change of state that is sufficiently rapid and sufficiently widespread in its effects that economies are unprepared or incapable of adapting. This may be too restrictive a definition, but abrupt climate change does have implications for the choice between the main response options: mitigation (which reduces the risks of climate change) and adaptation (which reduces the costs of climate change). The paper argues that by (i) increasing the costs of change and the potential growth of consumption, and (ii) reducing the time to change, abrupt climate change favours mitigation over adaptation. Furthermore, because the implications of change are fundamentally uncertain and potentially very high, it favours a precautionary approach in which mitigation buys time for learning. Adaptation-oriented decision tools, such as scenario planning, are inappropriate in these circumstances. Hence learning implies the use of probabilistic models that include socioeconomic feedbacks.

  10. Wealth reallocation and sustainability under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fenichel, Eli P.; Levin, Simon A.; McCay, Bonnie; St. Martin, Kevin; Abbott, Joshua K.; Pinsky, Malin L.

    2016-03-01

    Climate change is often described as the greatest environmental challenge of our time. In addition, a changing climate can reallocate natural capital, change the value of all forms of capital and lead to mass redistribution of wealth. Here we explain how the inclusive wealth framework provides a means to measure shifts in the amounts and distribution of wealth induced by climate change. Biophysical effects on prices, pre-existing institutions and socio-ecological changes related to shifts in climate cause wealth to change in ways not correlated with biophysical changes. This implies that sustainable development in the face of climate change requires a coherent approach that integrates biophysical and social measurement. Inclusive wealth provides a measure that indicates sustainability and has the added benefit of providing an organizational framework for integrating the multiple disciplines studying global change.

  11. Global climate change and international security

    SciTech Connect

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  12. Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

    PubMed

    Ahdoot, Samantha; Pacheco, Susan E

    2015-11-01

    Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health.

  13. Climate Change, Health, and Communication: A Primer.

    PubMed

    Chadwick, Amy E

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most serious and pervasive challenges facing us today. Our changing climate has implications not only for the ecosystems upon which we depend, but also for human health. Health communication scholars are well-positioned to aid in the mitigation of and response to climate change and its health effects. To help theorists, researchers, and practitioners engage in these efforts, this primer explains relevant issues and vocabulary associated with climate change and its impacts on health. First, this primer provides an overview of climate change, its causes and consequences, and its impacts on health. Then, the primer describes ways to decrease impacts and identifies roles for health communication scholars in efforts to address climate change and its health effects.

  14. Climate Change, Health, and Communication: A Primer.

    PubMed

    Chadwick, Amy E

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most serious and pervasive challenges facing us today. Our changing climate has implications not only for the ecosystems upon which we depend, but also for human health. Health communication scholars are well-positioned to aid in the mitigation of and response to climate change and its health effects. To help theorists, researchers, and practitioners engage in these efforts, this primer explains relevant issues and vocabulary associated with climate change and its impacts on health. First, this primer provides an overview of climate change, its causes and consequences, and its impacts on health. Then, the primer describes ways to decrease impacts and identifies roles for health communication scholars in efforts to address climate change and its health effects. PMID:26580230

  15. Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

    PubMed

    Ahdoot, Samantha; Pacheco, Susan E

    2015-11-01

    Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health. PMID:26504134

  16. Confluence of climate change policies and international trade

    SciTech Connect

    Vickery, R.E. Jr.

    1997-12-31

    The paper summarizes market information on energy conservation and renewable energy industries in the U.S., and highlights activities of the International Trade Administration. International treaties agreements on environmental issues are examined with respect to their influence on U.S. trade promotion and job creation. A sectoral analysis of the economic impact of greenhouse gas emissions reductions on industries is very briefly summarized. Finally, the need for a climate change treaty in spite of possible adverse impacts is discussed. 1 tab.

  17. Climate change and ecological public health.

    PubMed

    Goodman, Benny

    2015-02-17

    Climate change has been identified as a serious threat to human health, associated with the sustainability of current practices and lifestyles. Nurses should expand their health promotion role to address current and emerging threats to health from climate change and to address ecological public health. This article briefly outlines climate change and the concept of ecological public health, and discusses a 2012 review of the role of the nurse in health promotion.

  18. Climate Change and Agriculture: Effects and Adaptation

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    This document is a synthesis of science literature on the effects of climate change on agriculture and issues associated with agricultural adaptation to climate change. Information is presented on how long-term changes in air temperatures, precipitation, and atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide wi...

  19. Fostering Hope in Climate Change Educators

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Swim, Janet K.; Fraser, John

    2013-01-01

    Climate Change is a complex set of issues with large social and ecological risks. Addressing it requires an attentive and climate literate population capable of making informed decisions. Informal science educators are well-positioned to teach climate science and motivate engagement, but many have resisted the topic because of self-doubt about…

  20. Climate change: The IPCC scientific assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Houghton, J.T.; Jenkins, G.J.; Ephraums, J.J.

    1990-01-01

    Book review of the intergovernmental panel on climate change report on global warming and the greenhouse effect. Covers the scientific basis for knowledge of the future climate. Presents chemistry of greenhouse gases and mathematical modelling of the climate system. The book is primarily for government policy makers.

  1. Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary

    SciTech Connect

    Bhatti, N.; Cirillo, R.R.; Dixon, R.K.

    1995-12-31

    Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by more than 150 governments worldwide, calls on signatory parties to develop and communicate measures they are implementing to respond to global climate change. An analysis of a country`s vulnerability to changes in the climate helps it identify suitable adaptation measures. These analyses are designed to determine the extent of the impacts of global climate change on sensitive sectors such as agricultural crops, forests, grasslands and livestock, water resources, and coastal areas. Once it is determined how vulnerable a country may be to climate change, it is possible to identify adaptation measures for ameliorating some or all of the effects.The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: Provide an opportunity for countries to describe their study results; Encourage countries to learn from the experience of the more complete assessments and adjust their studies accordingly; Identify issues and analyses that require further investigation; and Summarize results and experiences for governmental and intergovernmental organizations.

  2. Using Web GIS "Climate" for Adaptation to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Shulgina, Tamara

    2015-04-01

    A work is devoted to the application of an information-computational Web GIS "Climate" developed by joint team of the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS and Tomsk State University to raise awareness about current and future climate change as a basis for further adaptation. Web-GIS "Climate» (http://climate.scert.ru/) based on modern concepts of Web 2.0 provides opportunities to study regional climate change and its consequences by providing access to climate and weather models, a large set of geophysical data and means of processing and visualization. Also, the system is used for the joint development of software applications by distributed research teams, research based on these applications and undergraduate and graduate students training. In addition, the system capabilities allow creating information resources to raise public awareness about climate change, its causes and consequences, which is a necessary step for the subsequent adaptation to these changes. Basic information course on climate change is placed in the public domain and is aimed at local population. Basic concepts and problems of modern climate change and its possible consequences are set out and illustrated in accessible language. Particular attention is paid to regional climate changes. In addition to the information part, the course also includes a selection of links to popular science network resources on current issues in Earth Sciences and a number of practical tasks to consolidate the material. These tasks are performed for a particular territory. Within the tasks users need to analyze the prepared within the "Climate" map layers and answer questions of direct interest to the public: "How did the minimum value of winter temperatures change in your area?", "What are the dynamics of maximum summer temperatures?", etc. Carrying out the analysis of the dynamics of climate change contributes to a better understanding of climate processes and further adaptation

  3. Incorporating Student Activities into Climate Change Education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steele, H.; Kelly, K.; Klein, D.; Cadavid, A. C.

    2013-12-01

    Under a NASA grant, Mathematical and Geospatial Pathways to Climate Change Education, students at California State University, Northridge integrated Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, satellite data technologies, and climate modelling into the study of global climate change under a Pathway for studying the Mathematics of Climate Change (PMCC). The PMCC, which is an interdisciplinary option within the BS in Applied Mathematical Sciences, consists of courses offered by the departments of Mathematics, Physics, and Geography and is designed to prepare students for careers and Ph.D. programs in technical fields relevant to global climate change. Under this option students are exposed to the science, mathematics, and applications of climate change science through a variety of methods including hands-on experience with computer modeling and image processing software. In the Geography component of the program, ESRI's ArcGIS and ERDAS Imagine mapping, spatial analysis and image processing software were used to explore NASA satellite data to examine the earth's atmosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere in areas that are affected by climate change or affect climate. These technology tools were incorporated into climate change and remote sensing courses to enhance students' knowledge and understanding of climate change through hands-on application of image processing techniques to NASA data. Several sets of exercises were developed with specific learning objectives in mind. These were (1) to increase student understanding of climate change and climate change processes; (2) to develop student skills in understanding, downloading and processing satellite data; (3) to teach remote sensing technology and GIS through applications to climate change; (4) to expose students to climate data and methods they can apply to solve real world problems and incorporate in future research projects. In the Math and Physics components of the course, students learned about

  4. EMS adaptation for climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, C.; Chang, Y.; Wen, J.; Tsai, M.

    2010-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to find an appropriate scenario of pre-hospital transportation of an emergency medical service (EMS) system for burdensome casualties resulting from extreme climate events. A case of natural catastrophic events in Taiwan, 88 wind-caused disasters, was reviewed and analyzed. A sequential-conveyance method was designed to shorten the casualty transportation time and to promote the efficiency of ambulance services. A proposed mobile emergency medical center was first constructed in a safe area, but nearby the disaster area. The Center consists of professional medical personnel who process the triage of incoming patients and take care of casualties with minor injuries. Ambulances in the Center were ready to sequentially convey the casualties with severer conditions to an assigned hospital that is distant from the disaster area for further treatment. The study suggests that if we could construct a spacious and well-equipped mobile emergency medical center, only a small portion of casualties would need to be transferred to distant hospitals. This would reduce the over-crowding problem in hospital ERs. First-line ambulances only reciprocated between the mobile emergency medical center and the disaster area, saving time and shortening the working distances. Second-line ambulances were highly regulated between the mobile emergency medical center and requested hospitals. The ambulance service of the sequential-conveyance method was found to be more efficient than the conventional method and was concluded to be more profitable and reasonable on paper in adapting to climate change. Therefore, additional practical work should be launched to collect more precise quantitative data.

  5. Moving past framing climate change as an environmental issue (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2013-12-01

    Continuing to frame climate change as an environmental issue can limit understanding by decision-makers and the public of the magnitude of the challenges faced by human and natural systems as the climate continues to change. Environmental issues are typically researched and managed using methods and tools that have been effective in dealing with other environmental concerns, from tropospheric ozone to lead exposure. Risk assessment is a commonly used approach to understanding the risk(s) posed by an agent, with four basic steps: (1) hazard identification; (2) dose-response assessment; (3) exposure assessment; and (4) risk characterization. This framing does not fully capture the complex interrelationships and feedbacks that often characterize the risks of climate change; understanding these can lead to better-informed decisions. Challenges with using traditional risk assessment to understand the health risks of climate change, for example, include the 'exposure' can range from increases in the mean and/or variance of temperature, precipitation, and other weather variables, to ocean acidification. Each is associated with a range of adverse health outcomes, with many associations indirect and/or nonlinear. Further, uncertainty about the magnitude, timing, and nature of changes in the climate system results in a need to estimate the potential impacts under a range of possible scenarios. In addition, most climate-sensitive health outcomes have multiple, contributing causes that may be interrelated, making it difficult to single out the influence of climate change against a backdrop of other risk factors, including socioeconomic factors, that also will change over time. In short, the primary assumption underlying traditional risk assessment -- that a defined exposure to a specific agent causes an adverse health outcome to identifiable exposed populations -- does not apply to climate change. Climate literacy can be improved by moving the framing from a relatively linear

  6. The psychological distance of climate change.

    PubMed

    Spence, Alexa; Poortinga, Wouter; Pidgeon, Nick

    2012-06-01

    Avoiding dangerous climate change is one of the most urgent social risk issues we face today and understanding related public perceptions is critical to engaging the public with the major societal transformations required to combat climate change. Analyses of public perceptions have indicated that climate change is perceived as distant on a number of different dimensions. However, to date there has been no in-depth exploration of the psychological distance of climate change. This study uses a nationally representative British sample in order to systematically explore and characterize each of the four theorized dimensions of psychological distance--temporal, social, and geographical distance, and uncertainty--in relation to climate change. We examine how each of these different aspects of psychological distance relate to each other as well as to concerns about climate change and sustainable behavior intentions. Results indicate that climate change is both psychologically distant and proximal in relation to different dimensions. Lower psychological distance was generally associated with higher levels of concern, although perceived impacts on developing countries, as an indicator of social distance, was also significantly related to preparedness to act on climate change. Our findings clearly point to the utility of risk communication techniques designed to reduce psychological distance. However, highlighting the potentially very serious distant impacts of climate change may also be useful in promoting sustainable behavior, even among those already concerned. PMID:21992607

  7. Climate Change: The Public Health Response

    PubMed Central

    Frumkin, Howard; Hess, Jeremy; Luber, George; Malilay, Josephine; McGeehin, Michael

    2008-01-01

    There is scientific consensus that the global climate is changing, with rising surface temperatures, melting ice and snow, rising sea levels, and increasing climate variability. These changes are expected to have substantial impacts on human health. There are known, effective public health responses for many of these impacts, but the scope, timeline, and complexity of climate change are unprecedented. We propose a public health approach to climate change, based on the essential public health services, that extends to both clinical and population health services and emphasizes the coordination of government agencies (federal, state, and local), academia, the private sector, and nongovernmental organizations. PMID:18235058

  8. Aging, Climate Change, and Legacy Thinking

    PubMed Central

    Fried, Linda; Moody, Rick

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is a complex, long-term public health challenge. Older people are especially susceptible to certain climate change impacts, such as heat waves. We suggest that older people may be a resource for addressing climate change because of their concern for legacy—for leaving behind values, attitudes, and an intact world to their children and grandchildren. We review the theoretical basis for “legacy thinking” among older people. We offer suggestions for research on this phenomenon, and for action to strengthen the sense of legacy. At a time when older populations are growing, understanding and promoting legacy thinking may offer an important strategy for addressing climate change. PMID:22698047

  9. The psychological distance of climate change.

    PubMed

    Spence, Alexa; Poortinga, Wouter; Pidgeon, Nick

    2012-06-01

    Avoiding dangerous climate change is one of the most urgent social risk issues we face today and understanding related public perceptions is critical to engaging the public with the major societal transformations required to combat climate change. Analyses of public perceptions have indicated that climate change is perceived as distant on a number of different dimensions. However, to date there has been no in-depth exploration of the psychological distance of climate change. This study uses a nationally representative British sample in order to systematically explore and characterize each of the four theorized dimensions of psychological distance--temporal, social, and geographical distance, and uncertainty--in relation to climate change. We examine how each of these different aspects of psychological distance relate to each other as well as to concerns about climate change and sustainable behavior intentions. Results indicate that climate change is both psychologically distant and proximal in relation to different dimensions. Lower psychological distance was generally associated with higher levels of concern, although perceived impacts on developing countries, as an indicator of social distance, was also significantly related to preparedness to act on climate change. Our findings clearly point to the utility of risk communication techniques designed to reduce psychological distance. However, highlighting the potentially very serious distant impacts of climate change may also be useful in promoting sustainable behavior, even among those already concerned.

  10. Adaptation to climate change in the Ontario public health sector

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Climate change is among the major challenges for health this century, and adaptation to manage adverse health outcomes will be unavoidable. The risks in Ontario – Canada’s most populous province – include increasing temperatures, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, and alterations to precipitation regimes. Socio-economic-demographic patterns could magnify the implications climate change has for Ontario, including the presence of rapidly growing vulnerable populations, exacerbation of warming trends by heat-islands in large urban areas, and connectedness to global transportation networks. This study examines climate change adaptation in the public health sector in Ontario using information from interviews with government officials. Methods Fifty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted, four with provincial and federal health officials and 49 with actors in public health and health relevant sectors at the municipal level. We identify adaptation efforts, barriers and opportunities for current and future intervention. Results Results indicate recognition that climate change will affect the health of Ontarians. Health officials are concerned about how a changing climate could exacerbate existing health issues or create new health burdens, specifically extreme heat (71%), severe weather (68%) and poor air-quality (57%). Adaptation is currently taking the form of mainstreaming climate change into existing public health programs. While adaptive progress has relied on local leadership, federal support, political will, and inter-agency efforts, a lack of resources constrains the sustainability of long-term adaptation programs and the acquisition of data necessary to support effective policies. Conclusions This study provides a snapshot of climate change adaptation and needs in the public health sector in Ontario. Public health departments will need to capitalize on opportunities to integrate climate change into policies and programs

  11. Climate change impacts on global food security.

    PubMed

    Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

    2013-08-01

    Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security. PMID:23908229

  12. Applied Climate-Change Analysis: The Climate Wizard Tool

    PubMed Central

    Girvetz, Evan H.; Zganjar, Chris; Raber, George T.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Kareiva, Peter; Lawler, Joshua J.

    2009-01-01

    Background Although the message of “global climate change” is catalyzing international action, it is local and regional changes that directly affect people and ecosystems and are of immediate concern to scientists, managers, and policy makers. A major barrier preventing informed climate-change adaptation planning is the difficulty accessing, analyzing, and interpreting climate-change information. To address this problem, we developed a powerful, yet easy to use, web-based tool called Climate Wizard (http://ClimateWizard.org) that provides non-climate specialists with simple analyses and innovative graphical depictions for conveying how climate has and is projected to change within specific geographic areas throughout the world. Methodology/Principal Findings To demonstrate the Climate Wizard, we explored historic trends and future departures (anomalies) in temperature and precipitation globally, and within specific latitudinal zones and countries. We found the greatest temperature increases during 1951–2002 occurred in northern hemisphere countries (especially during January–April), but the latitude of greatest temperature change varied throughout the year, sinusoidally ranging from approximately 50°N during February-March to 10°N during August-September. Precipitation decreases occurred most commonly in countries between 0–20°N, and increases mostly occurred outside of this latitudinal region. Similarly, a quantile ensemble analysis based on projections from 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 2070–2099 identified the median projected change within countries, which showed both latitudinal and regional patterns in projected temperature and precipitation change. Conclusions/Significance The results of these analyses are consistent with those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but at the same time, they provide examples of how Climate Wizard can be used to explore regionally- and temporally-specific analyses of climate

  13. The climate change-infectious disease nexus: is it time for climate change syndemics?

    PubMed

    Heffernan, Claire

    2013-12-01

    Conceptualizing climate as a distinct variable limits our understanding of the synergies and interactions between climate change and the range of abiotic and biotic factors, which influence animal health. Frameworks such as eco-epidemiology and the epi-systems approach, while more holistic, view climate and climate change as one of many discreet drivers of disease. Here, I argue for a new paradigmatic framework: climate-change syndemics. Climate-change syndemics begins from the assumption that climate change is one of many potential influences on infectious disease processes, but crucially is unlikely to act independently or in isolation; and as such, it is the inter-relationship between factors that take primacy in explorations of infectious disease and climate change. Equally importantly, as climate change will impact a wide range of diseases, the frame of analysis is at the collective rather than individual level (for both human and animal infectious disease) across populations.

  14. When climate science became climate politics: British media representations of climate change in 1988.

    PubMed

    Jaspal, Rusi; Nerlich, Brigitte

    2014-02-01

    Climate change has become a pressing environmental concern for scientists, social commentators and politicians. Previous social science research has explored media representations of climate change in various temporal and geographical contexts. Through the lens of Social Representations Theory, this article provides a detailed qualitative thematic analysis of media representations of climate change in the 1988 British broadsheet press, given that this year constitutes an important juncture in this transition of climate change from the domain of science to that of the socio-political sphere. The following themes are outlined: (i) "Climate change: a multi-faceted threat"; (ii) "Collectivisation of threat"; (iii) "Climate change and the attribution of blame"; and (iv) "Speculative solutions to a complex socio-environmental problem." The article provides detailed empirical insights into the "starting-point" for present-day disputes concerning climate change and lays the theoretical foundations for tracking the continuities and discontinuities characterising social representations of climate change in the future.

  15. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, James W. C.; Alley, Richard B.; Archer, David E.; Barnosky, Anthony D.; Dunlea, Edward; Foley, Jonathan; Fu, Rong; Holland, Marika M.; Lozier, M. Susan; Schmitt, Johanna; Smith, Laurence C.; Sugihara, George; Thompson, David W. J.; Weaver, Andrew J.; Wofsy, Steven C.

    2014-05-01

    Levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere are exceeding levels recorded in the past millions of years, and thus climate is being forced beyond the range of the recent geological era. Lacking concerted action by the world's nations, it is clear that the future climate will be warmer, sea levels will rise, global rainfall patterns will change, and ecosystems will be altered. However, there is still uncertainty about how we will arrive at that future climate state. Although many projections of future climatic conditions have predicted steadily changing conditions giving the impression that communities have time to gradually adapt, the scientific community has been paying increasing attention to the possibility that at least some changes will be abrupt, perhaps crossing a threshold or "tipping point" to change so quickly that there will be little time to react. This presentation will synopsize the new US National Research Council Report, Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises, highlighting areas of increased and decreased concern, as well as areas of new concern. Emphasis is placed on not only abrupt change in physical climate, but on abrupt changes in human and natural systems that can occur as a result of a slowly changing climate. The report calls for action now on an abrupt change early warning system (ACEWS) if societies are to be resilient to climate change.

  16. Impacts of climate change on avian populations.

    PubMed

    Jenouvrier, Stephanie

    2013-07-01

    This review focuses on the impacts of climate change on population dynamics. I introduce the MUP (Measuring, Understanding, and Predicting) approach, which provides a general framework where an enhanced understanding of climate-population processes, along with improved long-term data, are merged into coherent projections of future population responses to climate change. This approach can be applied to any species, but this review illustrates its benefit using birds as examples. Birds are one of the best-studied groups and a large number of studies have detected climate impacts on vital rates (i.e., life history traits, such as survival, maturation, or breeding, affecting changes in population size and composition) and population abundance. These studies reveal multifaceted effects of climate with direct, indirect, time-lagged, and nonlinear effects. However, few studies integrate these effects into a climate-dependent population model to understand the respective role of climate variables and their components (mean state, variability, extreme) on population dynamics. To quantify how populations cope with climate change impacts, I introduce a new universal variable: the 'population robustness to climate change.' The comparison of such robustness, along with prospective and retrospective analysis may help to identify the major climate threats and characteristics of threatened avian species. Finally, studies projecting avian population responses to future climate change predicted by IPCC-class climate models are rare. Population projections hinge on selecting a multiclimate model ensemble at the appropriate temporal and spatial scales and integrating both radiative forcing and internal variability in climate with fully specified uncertainties in both demographic and climate processes.

  17. Climate Variability, Climate Change and Fisheries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glantz, Michael H.

    2005-08-01

    As we approach the end of the twentieth century, public and scientific attention is focusing increasingly on the detection and assessment of changes in our environment. This unique volume addresses the potential implications of global warming for fisheries and the societies which depend on them. Using a æforecasting by analogy' approach, which draws upon experiences from the recent past in coping with regional fluctuations in the abundance or availability of living marine resources, it is shown how we might be able to assess our ability to respond to the consequences of future environmental changes induced by a potential global warming. The book takes the form of a series of integrated case studies from around the globe, which are presented by an interdisciplinary group of leading researchers. This important and thought-provoking volume will be of interest to a wide range of scientists working in the fields of biology, marine and environmental science, climatology, economics and anthropology, as well as resource managers and policy makers concerned with the health and future of living marine resources.

  18. Community-level phenological response to climate change.

    PubMed

    Ovaskainen, Otso; Skorokhodova, Svetlana; Yakovleva, Marina; Sukhov, Alexander; Kutenkov, Anatoliy; Kutenkova, Nadezhda; Shcherbakov, Anatoliy; Meyke, Evegeniy; Delgado, Maria del Mar

    2013-08-13

    Climate change may disrupt interspecies phenological synchrony, with adverse consequences to ecosystem functioning. We present here a 40-y-long time series on 10,425 dates that were systematically collected in a single Russian locality for 97 plant, 78 bird, 10 herptile, 19 insect, and 9 fungal phenological events, as well as for 77 climatic events related to temperature, precipitation, snow, ice, and frost. We show that species are shifting their phenologies at dissimilar rates, partly because they respond to different climatic factors, which in turn are shifting at dissimilar rates. Plants have advanced their spring phenology even faster than average temperature has increased, whereas migratory birds have shown more divergent responses and shifted, on average, less than plants. Phenological events of birds and insects were mainly triggered by climate cues (variation in temperature and snow and ice cover) occurring over the course of short periods, whereas many plants, herptiles, and fungi were affected by long-term climatic averages. Year-to-year variation in plants, herptiles, and insects showed a high degree of synchrony, whereas the phenological timing of fungi did not correlate with any other taxonomic group. In many cases, species that are synchronous in their year-to-year dynamics have also shifted in congruence, suggesting that climate change may have disrupted phenological synchrony less than has been previously assumed. Our results illustrate how a multidimensional change in the physical environment has translated into a community-level change in phenology.

  19. Community-level phenological response to climate change

    PubMed Central

    Ovaskainen, Otso; Skorokhodova, Svetlana; Yakovleva, Marina; Sukhov, Alexander; Kutenkov, Anatoliy; Kutenkova, Nadezhda; Shcherbakov, Anatoliy; Meyke, Evegeniy; Delgado, Maria del Mar

    2013-01-01

    Climate change may disrupt interspecies phenological synchrony, with adverse consequences to ecosystem functioning. We present here a 40-y-long time series on 10,425 dates that were systematically collected in a single Russian locality for 97 plant, 78 bird, 10 herptile, 19 insect, and 9 fungal phenological events, as well as for 77 climatic events related to temperature, precipitation, snow, ice, and frost. We show that species are shifting their phenologies at dissimilar rates, partly because they respond to different climatic factors, which in turn are shifting at dissimilar rates. Plants have advanced their spring phenology even faster than average temperature has increased, whereas migratory birds have shown more divergent responses and shifted, on average, less than plants. Phenological events of birds and insects were mainly triggered by climate cues (variation in temperature and snow and ice cover) occurring over the course of short periods, whereas many plants, herptiles, and fungi were affected by long-term climatic averages. Year-to-year variation in plants, herptiles, and insects showed a high degree of synchrony, whereas the phenological timing of fungi did not correlate with any other taxonomic group. In many cases, species that are synchronous in their year-to-year dynamics have also shifted in congruence, suggesting that climate change may have disrupted phenological synchrony less than has been previously assumed. Our results illustrate how a multidimensional change in the physical environment has translated into a community-level change in phenology. PMID:23901098

  20. An Ill Wind? Climate Change, Migration, and Health

    PubMed Central

    Barnett, Jon

    2012-01-01

    Background: Climate change is projected to cause substantial increases in population movement in coming decades. Previous research has considered the likely causal influences and magnitude of such movements and the risks to national and international security. There has been little research on the consequences of climate-related migration and the health of people who move. Objectives: In this review, we explore the role that health impacts of climate change may play in population movements and then examine the health implications of three types of movements likely to be induced by climate change: forcible displacement by climate impacts, resettlement schemes, and migration as an adaptive response. Methods: This risk assessment draws on research into the health of refugees, migrants, and people in resettlement schemes as analogs of the likely health consequences of climate-related migration. Some account is taken of the possible modulation of those health risks by climate change. Discussion: Climate-change–related migration is likely to result in adverse health outcomes, both for displaced and for host populations, particularly in situations of forced migration. However, where migration and other mobility are used as adaptive strategies, health risks are likely to be minimized, and in some cases there will be health gains. Conclusions: Purposeful and timely policy interventions can facilitate the mobility of people, enhance well-being, and maximize social and economic development in both places of origin and places of destination. Nevertheless, the anticipated occurrence of substantial relocation of groups and communities will underscore the fundamental seriousness of human-induced climate change. PMID:22266739

  1. Climate change and agriculture in developing countries

    SciTech Connect

    Antle, J.M.

    1995-08-01

    Most analysts agree that the poorest countries` agricultures are likely to be the most vulnerable to-and least capable of adapting to-climate change or other environmental disruptions. Research has only recently begun to assess what the likely impacts of climate change on developing countries` agricultures may be, how these agricultures might adapt to climate change, and how policies might be designed to facilitate adaptation. This paper begins with a discussion of what researchers currently believe the impacts of climate change could be on developing country agriculture, principally tropical agriculture. Climate changes are expected to occur from thirty to more than one hundred years in the future. These time horizons mean that predictions of the key factors determining impacts and adaptation-population, income, institutions, and technology-are probably as uncertain as predictions of climate change itself. Rates of productivity growth and technological adaptation will be critical to future food supplies, with or without climate change. Continuation of the trend of the past forty years could make so abundant that climate change effects would be inconsequential, but lower rates of growth could result in population growth outstripping food supplies. The second section of this paper addresses the critical issue of predicting the long-term trend in productivity by building on the substantial knowledge we have about the economic factors determining agricultural innovation and adaptation. Considering the time horizons and uncertainties involved in climate change, the wise policy strategy is to pursue investments that are economically justified, whether or not climate change occurs. A better understanding of managed ecosystems would improve our understanding of agricultural sustainability as well as climate change impacts and adaptation. The third section of this paper outlines an economic approach to modeling managed ecosystems. 21 refs.

  2. River Restoration for a Changing Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beechie, T. J.; Pollock, M. M.; Pess, G. R.; Roni, P.

    2012-12-01

    Future climate scenarios suggest that riverine habitats will be significantly altered in the next few decades, forcing managers to ask whether and how river restoration activities should be altered to accommodate climate change. Obvious questions include: Will climate change alter river flow and temperature enough to reduce action effectiveness? What types of restoration actions are more likely to remain effective in a climate altered future? To help address these questions, we reviewed literature on habitat restoration actions and river processes to determine the degree to which different restoration actions are likely to either ameliorate a climate effect or increase habitat diversity and resilience. Key findings are that restoring floodplain connectivity and re-aggrading incised channels ameliorate both stream flow and temperature changes and increase lateral connectivity, whereas restoring in-stream flows can ameliorate decreases in low flows as well as stream temperature increases. Other restoration actions (e.g., reducing sediment supply, in-stream rehabilitation) are much less likely to ameliorate climate change effects. In general, actions that restore watershed and ecosystem processes are most likely to be robust to climate change effects because they allow river channels and riverine ecosystems to evolve in response to shifting stream flow and temperature regimes. We offer a decision support process to illustrate how to evaluate whether a project design should be altered to accommodate climate change effects, and show examples of restoration actions that are likely to be resilient to a changing climate.

  3. Undocumented migration in response to climate change

    PubMed Central

    Riosmena, Fernando; Hunter, Lori M.; Runfola, Daniel M.

    2016-01-01

    In the face of climate change induced economic uncertainty, households may employ migration as an adaptation strategy to diversify their livelihood portfolio through remittances. However, it is unclear whether such climate migration will be documented or undocumented. In this study we combine detailed migration histories with daily temperature and precipitation information for 214 weather stations to investigate whether climate change more strongly impacts undocumented or documented migration from 68 rural Mexican municipalities to the U.S. during the years 1986–1999. We employ two measures of climate change, the warm spell duration index (WSDI) and the precipitation during extremely wet days (R99PTOT). Results from multi-level event-history models demonstrate that climate-related international migration from rural Mexico was predominantly undocumented. We conclude that programs to facilitate climate change adaptation in rural Mexico may be more effective in reducing undocumented border crossings than increased border fortification. PMID:27570840

  4. Accommodating climate change contingencies in conservation strategy.

    PubMed

    Gillson, Lindsey; Dawson, Terence P; Jack, Sam; McGeoch, Melodie A

    2013-03-01

    Species ranges are seldom at equilibrium with climate, because several interacting factors determine distribution, including demographic processes, dispersal, land use, disturbance (e.g., fire), and biotic interactions. Conservation strategies in a changing climate therefore cannot be based only on predicted climate-driven range shifts. Here, we explore conservation and management options in a framework for prioritizing landscapes based on two 'axes of concern': landscape conservation capacity attributes (percentage of protected area, connectivity, and condition of the matrix) and vulnerability to climate change (climate change velocity and topographic variation). Nine other conservation actions are also presented, from understanding and predicting to planning and managing for climate change. We emphasize the need for adaptation and resilience in populations, ecosystems, and the conservation environment itself. PMID:23146578

  5. Accommodating climate change contingencies in conservation strategy.

    PubMed

    Gillson, Lindsey; Dawson, Terence P; Jack, Sam; McGeoch, Melodie A

    2013-03-01

    Species ranges are seldom at equilibrium with climate, because several interacting factors determine distribution, including demographic processes, dispersal, land use, disturbance (e.g., fire), and biotic interactions. Conservation strategies in a changing climate therefore cannot be based only on predicted climate-driven range shifts. Here, we explore conservation and management options in a framework for prioritizing landscapes based on two 'axes of concern': landscape conservation capacity attributes (percentage of protected area, connectivity, and condition of the matrix) and vulnerability to climate change (climate change velocity and topographic variation). Nine other conservation actions are also presented, from understanding and predicting to planning and managing for climate change. We emphasize the need for adaptation and resilience in populations, ecosystems, and the conservation environment itself.

  6. Climate change and skin cancer.

    PubMed

    van der Leun, Jan C; de Gruijl, Frank R

    2002-05-01

    Depletion of the ozone layer and climate change by the increasing greenhouse effect are distinctly different processes. It is becoming quite clear, however, that the two global environmental problems are interlinked in several ways [D. L. Albritton, P. J Aucamp, G. Mégie, R. T. Watson, Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion, 1998, World Meteorological Organization, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project, Report No. 44 (WMO, Geneva, 1998)]. In the present analysis we deal with the possibility of such an interlinkage within one effect on human health, namely, skin cancer. The increase in the incidence of skin cancer is one of the most extensively studied effects of increasing ultraviolet radiation by ozone depletion (F. R. de Gruijl, Skin cancer and solar radiation, Eur. J Cancer, 1999, 35, 2003-2009). We wondered if this impact could also be influenced by increasing environmental temperatures. Here we show that it is likely that such an influence will occur. For the same reason, it is likely that the baseline incidence of skin cancer will be augmented by rising temperatures, which may become significant in magnitude.

  7. Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schuur, E.A.G.; McGuire, Anthony; Schädel, C.; Grosse, G.; Harden, J.W.; Hayes, D.J.; Hugelius, G.; Koven, C.D.; Kuhry, P.; Lawrence, D.M.; Natali, S.M.; Olefeldt, David; Romanovsky, V.E.; Schaefer, K.; Turetsky, M.R.; Treat, C.C.; Vonk, J.E.

    2015-01-01

    Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.

  8. The Status of Mars Climate Change Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haberle, Robert M.

    1997-01-01

    Researchers have reviewed the evidence that the climate of Mars has changed throughout its history. In this paper, the discussion focuses on where we stand in terms of modeling these climate changes. For convenience, three distinct types of climate regimes are considered: very early in the planet's history (more than 3.5 Ga), when warm wet conditions are thought to have prevailed; the bulk of the planet's history (3.5-1 Ga), during which episodic ocean formation has been suggested; and relatively recently in the planet's history (less than 1 Ga), when orbitally induced climate change is thought to have occurred.

  9. Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback.

    PubMed

    Schuur, E A G; McGuire, A D; Schädel, C; Grosse, G; Harden, J W; Hayes, D J; Hugelius, G; Koven, C D; Kuhry, P; Lawrence, D M; Natali, S M; Olefeldt, D; Romanovsky, V E; Schaefer, K; Turetsky, M R; Treat, C C; Vonk, J E

    2015-04-01

    Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.

  10. Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback.

    PubMed

    Schuur, E A G; McGuire, A D; Schädel, C; Grosse, G; Harden, J W; Hayes, D J; Hugelius, G; Koven, C D; Kuhry, P; Lawrence, D M; Natali, S M; Olefeldt, D; Romanovsky, V E; Schaefer, K; Turetsky, M R; Treat, C C; Vonk, J E

    2015-04-01

    Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics. PMID:25855454

  11. Hybrid Zones: Windows on Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Larson, Erica L.; Harrison, Richard G.

    2016-01-01

    Defining the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on biodiversity and species distributions is currently a high priority. Niche models focus primarily on predicted changes in abiotic factors; however, species interactions and adaptive evolution will impact the ability of species to persist in the face of changing climate. Our review focuses on the use of hybrid zones to monitor species' responses to contemporary climate change. Monitoring hybrid zones provides insight into how range boundaries shift in response to climate change by illuminating the combined effects of species interactions and physiological sensitivity. At the same time, the semi-permeable nature of species boundaries allows us to document adaptive introgression of alleles associated with response to climate change. PMID:25982153

  12. Climate change risks for African agriculture.

    PubMed

    Müller, Christoph; Cramer, Wolfgang; Hare, William L; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-03-15

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of major risks for African agriculture and food security caused by climate change during coming decades is confirmed by a review of more recent climate change impact assessments (14 quantitative, six qualitative). Projected impacts relative to current production levels range from -100% to +168% in econometric, from -84% to +62% in process-based, and from -57% to +30% in statistical assessments. Despite large uncertainty, there are several robust conclusions from published literature for policy makers and research agendas: agriculture everywhere in Africa runs some risk to be negatively affected by climate change; existing cropping systems and infrastructure will have to change to meet future demand. With respect to growing population and the threat of negative climate change impacts, science will now have to show if and how agricultural production in Africa can be significantly improved.

  13. Hybrid zones: windows on climate change.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Scott A; Larson, Erica L; Harrison, Richard G

    2015-07-01

    Defining the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on biodiversity and species distributions is currently a high priority. Niche models focus primarily on predicted changes in abiotic factors; however, species interactions and adaptive evolution will impact the ability of species to persist in the face of changing climate. Our review focuses on the use of hybrid zones to monitor responses of species to contemporary climate change. Monitoring hybrid zones provides insight into how range boundaries shift in response to climate change by illuminating the combined effects of species interactions and physiological sensitivity. At the same time, the semipermeable nature of species boundaries allows us to document adaptive introgression of alleles associated with response to climate change.

  14. Global climate change and US agriculture

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adams, Richard M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Peart, Robert M.; Ritchie, Joe T.; Mccarl, Bruce A.

    1990-01-01

    Agricultural productivity is expected to be sensitive to global climate change. Models from atmospheric science, plant science, and agricultural economics are linked to explore this sensitivity. Although the results depend on the severity of climate change and the compensating effects of carbon dioxide on crop yields, the simulation suggests that irrigated acreage will expand and regional patterns of U.S. agriculture will shift. The impact of the U.S. economy strongly depends on which climate model is used.

  15. Man-Made Climatic Changes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Landsberg, Helmut E.

    1970-01-01

    Reviews environmental studies which show that national climatic fluctuations vary over a wide range. Solar radiation, earth temperatures, precipitation, atmospheric gases and suspended particulates are discussed in relation to urban and extraurban effects. Local weather modifications and attempts at climate control by man seem to have substantial…

  16. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watson, Robert T.; Zinyowera, Marufu C.; Moss, Richard H.

    1998-01-01

    The degree to which human conditions and the natural environment are vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change is a key concern for governments and the environmental science community worldwide. This book from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides the best available base of scientific information for policymakers and public use. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health, and other resources for ten global regions. It also illustrates that the increasing costs of climate and climate variability, in terms of loss of human life and capital due to floods, storms, and droughts, are a result of the lack of adjustment and response in society's policies and use of resources. This book points to management options that would make many sectors more resilient to current variability in climate and thus help these sectors adapt to future changes in climate. This book will become the primary source of information on regional aspects of climate change for policymakers, the scientific community, and students.

  17. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watson, Robert T.; Zinyowera, Marufu C.; Moss, Richard H.

    1997-12-01

    The degree to which human conditions and the natural environment are vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change is a key concern for governments and the environmental science community worldwide. This book from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides the best available base of scientific information for policymakers and public use. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health, and other resources for ten global regions. It also illustrates that the increasing costs of climate and climate variability, in terms of loss of human life and capital due to floods, storms, and droughts, are a result of the lack of adjustment and response in society's policies and use of resources. This book points to management options that would make many sectors more resilient to current variability in climate and thus help these sectors adapt to future changes in climate. This book will become the primary source of information on regional aspects of climate change for policymakers, the scientific community, and students.

  18. Marine viruses and global climate change.

    PubMed

    Danovaro, Roberto; Corinaldesi, Cinzia; Dell'anno, Antonio; Fuhrman, Jed A; Middelburg, Jack J; Noble, Rachel T; Suttle, Curtis A

    2011-11-01

    Sea-surface warming, sea-ice melting and related freshening, changes in circulation and mixing regimes, and ocean acidification induced by the present climate changes are modifying marine ecosystem structure and function and have the potential to alter the cycling of carbon and nutrients in surface oceans. Changing climate has direct and indirect consequences on marine viruses, including cascading effects on biogeochemical cycles, food webs, and the metabolic balance of the ocean. We discuss here a range of case studies of climate change and the potential consequences on virus function, viral assemblages and virus-host interactions. In turn, marine viruses influence directly and indirectly biogeochemical cycles, carbon sequestration capacity of the oceans and the gas exchange between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. We cannot yet predict whether the viruses will exacerbate or attenuate the magnitude of climate changes on marine ecosystems, but we provide evidence that marine viruses interact actively with the present climate change and are a key biotic component that is able to influence the oceans' feedback on climate change. Long-term and wide spatial-scale studies, and improved knowledge of host-virus dynamics in the world's oceans will permit the incorporation of the viral component into future ocean climate models and increase the accuracy of the predictions of the climate change impacts on the function of the oceans.

  19. Climate Change Position Statement, Dissenting View

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pielke, R. A.

    2013-08-01

    I served on the AGU panel to draft the updated position statement on climate change. We were charged by AGU to provide "an up-to-date statement [that] will assure that AGU members, the public, and policy makers have a more current point of reference for discussion of climate change science that is intrinsically relevant to national and international policy."

  20. Harnessing Homophily to Improve Climate Change Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Monroe, Martha C.; Plate, Richard R.; Adams, Damian C.; Wojcik, Deborah J.

    2015-01-01

    The Cooperative Extension Service (Extension) in the United States is well positioned to educate the public, particularly farmers and foresters, about climate change and to encourage responsible adoption of adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the climate change attitudes and perceptions of Extension professionals have limited…

  1. Singapore Students' Misconceptions of Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chang, Chew-Hung; Pascua, Liberty

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is an important theme in the investigation of human-environment interactions in geographic education. This study explored the nature of students' understanding of concepts and processes related to climate change. Through semi-structured interviews, data was collected from 27 Secondary 3 (Grade 9) students from Singapore. The data…

  2. Climate change: Update on international negotiations

    SciTech Connect

    Silverman, L.

    1997-12-31

    This paper outlines the following: United Nations` framework convention on climatic change; the United States` climate change action plan; current issues to be resolved (targets/timetables, policies, advancing commitments of all parties, and compliance); and implications for clean coal technologies.

  3. Climate Change Indicators for the United States

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA’s publishes the Climate Change Indicators for the United States report to communicate information about the science and impacts of climate change, track trends in environmental quality, and inform de¬cision-making. This report presents a set of key indicators to help readers ...

  4. Climate change and corn susceptibility to mycotoxins

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Maize is an essential part of the world’s grain supply, but climate change has the potential to increase maize susceptibility to mycotoxigenic fungal pathogens and reduce food security and safety. While rising atmospheric [CO2] is a driving force of climate change, our understanding of how elevated ...

  5. 10 Facts on Climate Change and Health

    MedlinePlus

    World health organization 10 facts on climate change and health Next UNEP/Still Pictures Previous 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next Over the last 50 ... more heat in the lower atmosphere. The resulting changes in the global climate bring a range of risks to health, from ...

  6. Breeding oilseed crops for climate change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Oilseed crops are the basis for biological systems that produce edible oils, contribute to renewable energy production, help stabilize greenhouse gases, and mitigate the risk of climate change. Their response to climate change will be dictated by reactions to temperature, carbon dioxide, solar radia...

  7. The Psychological Impacts of Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doherty, Thomas J.; Clayton, Susan

    2011-01-01

    An appreciation of the psychological impacts of global climate change entails recognizing the complexity and multiple meanings associated with climate change; situating impacts within other social, technological, and ecological transitions; and recognizing mediators and moderators of impacts. This article describes three classes of psychological…

  8. How Volcanism Controls Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, P. L.

    2013-12-01

    km decrease in tropopause height. Changes in the rates and types of volcanism have been the primary cause of climate change throughout geologic time. Large explosive volcanoes erupting as frequently as once per decade increment the world into ice ages. Extensive, effusive basaltic volcanism warms the world out of ice ages. Twelve of the 13 dated basaltic table mountains in Iceland experienced their final eruptive phase during the last deglaciation when deposits of sulfate and volcanic ash fell over Greenland at their highest rates. Massive flood basalts are typically accompanied by extreme warming, ozone depletion, and major mass extinctions. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum occurred when subaerial extrusion of basalts related to the opening of the Greenland-Norwegian Sea suddenly increased to rates greater than 3000 cubic km per km of rift per million years. Dansgaard-Oeschger sudden warming events are contemporaneous with increased volcanism especially in Iceland and last longer when that volcanism lasts longer. Sudden influxes of fresh water often observed in the North Atlantic during these events are most likely caused by extensive sub-glacial volcanism. The Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, major droughts, and many sudden changes in human civilization began with substantial increases in volcanism. Extensive submarine volcanism does not affect climate directly but is linked with increases in ocean acidity and anoxic events.

  9. Climate change influence on drinking water quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kovacs, Melinda Haydee; Ristoiu, Dumitru; Voica, Cezara; Moldovan, Zaharie

    2013-11-01

    Although it are quite well known the possible effects of climate changes on surface waters availability and their hydrological risks, their consequences on drinking water quality is not well defined yet. Disinfection agents (as Cl2, O3, etc.) or multiple combinations of them for water treatment and disinfection purposes are applied by water treatment plants at worldwide level. Unfortunately, besides the benefits of these processes were also highlighted some undesirable effects such as formation of several disinfection by-products (DBPs) after reaction of disinfection agent with natural organic matter (NOM) from water body. DBPs formation in drinking water, suspected to posses adverse health effects to humans are strongly regulated in our days. Thus, throughout this study kinetics experiments both the main physicochemical factors that influencing the quality of drinking waters were evaluated as well how they act through possible warming or the consequences of extreme events. Increasing water temperatures with 1 - 5 °C above its normal value has showed that NOMs are presented in higher amount which led to the need for greater amount of disinfectant agent (5 - 15 %). Increasing the amount of disinfecting agent resulted in the formation of DBPs in significantly higher concentrations (between 5 - 30 %).

  10. The physical science behind climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Collins, William; Collins, William; Colman, Robert; Haywood, James; Manning, Martin R.; Mote, Philip

    2007-07-01

    For a scientist studying climate change, 'eureka' moments are unusually rare. Instead progress is generally made by a painstaking piecing together of evidence from every new temperature measurement, satellite sounding or climate-model experiment. Data get checked and rechecked, ideas tested over and over again. Do the observations fit the predicted changes? Could there be some alternative explanation? Good climate scientists, like all good scientists, want to ensure that the highest standards of proof apply to everything they discover. And the evidence of change has mounted as climate records have grown longer, as our understanding of the climate system has improved and as climate models have become ever more reliable. Over the past 20 years, evidence that humans are affecting the climate has accumulated inexorably, and with it has come ever greater certainty across the scientific community in the reality of recent climate change and the potential for much greater change in the future. This increased certainty is starkly reflected in the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the fourth in a series of assessments of the state of knowledge on the topic, written and reviewed by hundreds of scientists worldwide. The panel released a condensed version of the first part of the report, on the physical science basis of climate change, in February. Called the 'Summary for Policymakers,' it delivered to policymakers and ordinary people alike an unambiguous message: scientists are more confident than ever that humans have interfered with the climate and that further human-induced climate change is on the way. Although the report finds that some of these further changes are now inevitable, its analysis also confirms that the future, particularly in the longer term, remains largely in our hands--the magnitude of expected change depends on what humans choose to do about greenhouse gas emissions. The physical science assessment focuses on four

  11. Climate change or land use dynamics: do we know what climate change indicators indicate?

    PubMed

    Clavero, Miguel; Villero, Daniel; Brotons, Lluís

    2011-04-21

    Different components of global change can have interacting effects on biodiversity and this may influence our ability to detect the specific consequences of climate change through biodiversity indicators. Here, we analyze whether climate change indicators can be affected by land use dynamics that are not directly determined by climate change. To this aim, we analyzed three community-level indicators of climate change impacts that are based on the optimal thermal environment and average latitude of the distribution of bird species present at local communities. We used multiple regression models to relate the variation in climate change indicators to: i) environmental temperature; and ii) three landscape gradients reflecting important current land use change processes (land abandonment, fire impacts and urbanization), all of them having forest areas at their positive extremes. We found that, with few exceptions, landscape gradients determined the figures of climate change indicators as strongly as temperature. Bird communities in forest habitats had colder-dwelling bird species with more northern distributions than farmland, burnt or urban areas. Our results show that land use changes can reverse, hide or exacerbate our perception of climate change impacts when measured through community-level climate change indicators. We stress the need of an explicit incorporation of the interactions between climate change and land use dynamics to understand what are current climate change indicators indicating and be able to isolate real climate change impacts.

  12. Beyond Wiki to Judgewiki for Transparent Climate Change Decisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capron, M. E.

    2008-12-01

    Climate Change is like the prisoner's dilemma, a zero-sum game, or cheating in sports. Everyone and every country is tempted to selfishly maintain or advance their standard of living. The tremendous difference between standards of living amplifies the desire to opt out of Climate Change solutions adverse to economic competitiveness. Climate Change is also exceedingly complex. No one person, one organization, one country, or partial collection of countries has the capacity and the global support needed to make decisions on Climate Change solutions. There are thousands of potential actions, tens of thousands of known and unknown environmental and economic impacts. Some actions are belatedly found to be unsustainable beyond token volumes, corn ethanol or soy-biodiesel for example. Mankind can address human nature and complexity with a globally transparent information and decision process available to all 7 billion of us. We need a process that builds trust and simplifies complexity. Fortunately, we have the Internet for trust building communication and computers to simplify complexity. Mankind can produce new software tailored to the challenge. We would combine group information collection software (a wiki) with a decision-matrix (a judge), market forecasting, and video games to produce the tool mankind needs for trust building transparent decisions on Climate Change actions. The resulting software would be a judgewiki.

  13. Climate change is a bioethics problem.

    PubMed

    Macpherson, Cheryl Cox

    2013-07-01

    Climate change harms health and damages and diminishes environmental resources. Gradually it will cause health systems to reduce services, standards of care, and opportunities to express patient autonomy. Prominent public health organizations are responding with preparedness, mitigation, and educational programs. The design and effectiveness of these programs, and of similar programs in other sectors, would be enhanced by greater understanding of the values and tradeoffs associated with activities and public policies that drive climate change. Bioethics could generate such understanding by exposing the harms and benefits in different cultural, socioeconomic, and geographic contexts, and through interdisciplinary risk assessments. Climate change is a bioethics problem because it harms everyone and involves health, values, and responsibilities. This article initiates dialog about the responsibility of bioethics to promote transparency and understanding of the social values and conflicts associated with climate change, and the actions and public policies that allow climate change to worsen.

  14. Mesocosms Reveal Ecological Surprises from Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Fordham, Damien A.

    2015-01-01

    Understanding, predicting, and mitigating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity poses one of the most crucial challenges this century. Currently, we know more about how future climates are likely to shift across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes. Two recent studies show how mesocosm experiments can hasten understanding of the ecological consequences of climate change on species’ extinction risk, community structure, and ecosystem functions. Using a large-scale terrestrial warming experiment, Bestion et al. provide the first direct evidence that future global warming can increase extinction risk for temperate ectotherms. Using aquatic mesocosms, Yvon-Durocher et al. show that human-induced climate change could, in some cases, actually enhance the diversity of local communities, increasing productivity. Blending these theoretical and empirical results with computational models will improve forecasts of biodiversity loss and altered ecosystem processes due to climate change. PMID:26680131

  15. Creating Effective Dialogue Around Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiehl, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    Communicating climate change to people from diverse sectors of society has proven to be difficult in the United States. It is widely recognized that difficulties arise from a number of sources, including: basic science understanding, the psychologically affect laden content surrounding climate change, and the diversity of value systems that exist in our society. I explore ways of working with the affect that arises around climate change and describe specific methods to work with the resistance often encountered when communicating this important issue. The techniques I describe are rooted in psychology and group process and provide means for creating more effective narratives to break through the barriers to communicating climate change science. Examples are given from personal experiences in presenting climate change to diverse groups.

  16. Water access, water scarcity, and climate change.

    PubMed

    Mukheibir, Pierre

    2010-05-01

    This article investigates the approaches of the various discourses operating in the water sector and how they address the issues of scarcity and equitable access under projected climate change impacts. Little synergy exists between the different approaches dealing with these issues. Whilst being a sustainable development and water resources management issue, a holistic view of access, scarcity and the projected impacts of climate change is not prevalent in these discourses. The climate change discourse too does not adequately bridge the gap between these issues. The projected impacts of climate change are likely to exacerbate the problems of scarcity and equitable access unless appropriate adaptation strategies are adopted and resilience is built. The successful delivery of accessible water services under projected climate change impacts therefore lies with an extension of the adaptive water management approach to include equitable access as a key driver.

  17. Effect of exposure to adverse climatic conditions on production in Manchega dairy sheep.

    PubMed

    Ramón, M; Díaz, C; Pérez-Guzman, M D; Carabaño, M J

    2016-07-01

    The present study aimed to examine the effects of exposure to adverse weather conditions on milk production to assess the thermotolerance capability of the Manchega breed, a dairy sheep reared in the Mediterranean area, and the extent of decline in production outside the thermal comfort zone. To achieve this purpose, we merged data from the official milk recording of the breed with weather information and used to describe the cold and heat stress response for production traits. Production data consisted of 1,094,804 test-day records from the first 3 lactations of 177,605 ewes gathered between years 2000 to 2010. For each production trait and climate variable, the thermal load production response was characterized by the estimation of cold and heat stress thresholds that define a thermoneutral zone and the slopes of production decay outside this thermoneutral zone. Overall, we observed a comfort region between 10 and 22°C for daily average temperature, 18 and 30°C for daily maximum temperature, and from 9 to 18 units for a temperature-humidity index (THI) for all traits. Decline in production due to cold stress effects was of a greater magnitude than heat stress effects, especially for milk yield. Production losses ranged between 7 and 16 and from 0.2 to 0.6g/d per °C (or THI unit) for milk and for fat and protein yields, respectively. For heat stress, the observed decline in production was of 1 to 5 and 0.1 to 0.3g/d per °C (or THI unit) above the threshold for milk yield and for fat and protein yields, respectively. Highly productive animals showed a narrower comfort zone and higher slopes of decay. The study of lagged effects of thermal load showed how consequences of cold and heat stress are already visible in the first hours after exposure. Thus, production losses were due mainly to climate conditions on the day of control and the day before, with conditions on the previous days having a smaller effect. Annual economic losses due to thermal (cold and heat

  18. Effect of exposure to adverse climatic conditions on production in Manchega dairy sheep.

    PubMed

    Ramón, M; Díaz, C; Pérez-Guzman, M D; Carabaño, M J

    2016-07-01

    The present study aimed to examine the effects of exposure to adverse weather conditions on milk production to assess the thermotolerance capability of the Manchega breed, a dairy sheep reared in the Mediterranean area, and the extent of decline in production outside the thermal comfort zone. To achieve this purpose, we merged data from the official milk recording of the breed with weather information and used to describe the cold and heat stress response for production traits. Production data consisted of 1,094,804 test-day records from the first 3 lactations of 177,605 ewes gathered between years 2000 to 2010. For each production trait and climate variable, the thermal load production response was characterized by the estimation of cold and heat stress thresholds that define a thermoneutral zone and the slopes of production decay outside this thermoneutral zone. Overall, we observed a comfort region between 10 and 22°C for daily average temperature, 18 and 30°C for daily maximum temperature, and from 9 to 18 units for a temperature-humidity index (THI) for all traits. Decline in production due to cold stress effects was of a greater magnitude than heat stress effects, especially for milk yield. Production losses ranged between 7 and 16 and from 0.2 to 0.6g/d per °C (or THI unit) for milk and for fat and protein yields, respectively. For heat stress, the observed decline in production was of 1 to 5 and 0.1 to 0.3g/d per °C (or THI unit) above the threshold for milk yield and for fat and protein yields, respectively. Highly productive animals showed a narrower comfort zone and higher slopes of decay. The study of lagged effects of thermal load showed how consequences of cold and heat stress are already visible in the first hours after exposure. Thus, production losses were due mainly to climate conditions on the day of control and the day before, with conditions on the previous days having a smaller effect. Annual economic losses due to thermal (cold and heat

  19. Adaptation to climate change in developing countries.

    PubMed

    Mertz, Ole; Halsnaes, Kirsten; Olesen, Jørgen E; Rasmussen, Kjeld

    2009-05-01

    Adaptation to climate change is given increasing international attention as the confidence in climate change projections is getting higher. Developing countries have specific needs for adaptation due to high vulnerabilities, and they will in this way carry a great part of the global costs of climate change although the rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are mainly the responsibility of industrialized countries. This article provides a status of climate change adaptation in developing countries. An overview of observed and projected climate change is given, and recent literature on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation are reviewed, including the emerging focus on mainstreaming of climate change and adaptation in development plans and programs. The article also serves as an introduction to the seven research articles of this special issue on climate change adaptation in developing countries. It is concluded that although many useful steps have been taken in the direction of ensuring adequate adaptation in developing countries, much work still remains to fully understand the drivers of past adaptation efforts, the need for future adaptation, and how to mainstream climate into general development policies.

  20. Connectivity planning to address climate change.

    PubMed

    Nuñez, Tristan A; Lawler, Joshua J; McRae, Brad H; Pierce, D John; Krosby, Meade B; Kavanagh, Darren M; Singleton, Peter H; Tewksbury, Joshua J

    2013-04-01

    As the climate changes, human land use may impede species from tracking areas with suitable climates. Maintaining connectivity between areas of different temperatures could allow organisms to move along temperature gradients and allow species to continue to occupy the same temperature space as the climate warms. We used a coarse-filter approach to identify broad corridors for movement between areas where human influence is low while simultaneously routing the corridors along present-day spatial gradients of temperature. We modified a cost-distance algorithm to model these corridors and tested the model with data on current land-use and climate patterns in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. The resulting maps identified a network of patches and corridors across which species may move as climates change. The corridors are likely to be robust to uncertainty in the magnitude and direction of future climate change because they are derived from gradients and land-use patterns. The assumptions we applied in our model simplified the stability of temperature gradients and species responses to climate change and land use, but the model is flexible enough to be tailored to specific regions by incorporating other climate variables or movement costs. When used at appropriate resolutions, our approach may be of value to local, regional, and continental conservation initiatives seeking to promote species movements in a changing climate. Planificación de Conectividad para Atender el Cambio Climático.

  1. Connectivity planning to address climate change.

    PubMed

    Nuñez, Tristan A; Lawler, Joshua J; McRae, Brad H; Pierce, D John; Krosby, Meade B; Kavanagh, Darren M; Singleton, Peter H; Tewksbury, Joshua J

    2013-04-01

    As the climate changes, human land use may impede species from tracking areas with suitable climates. Maintaining connectivity between areas of different temperatures could allow organisms to move along temperature gradients and allow species to continue to occupy the same temperature space as the climate warms. We used a coarse-filter approach to identify broad corridors for movement between areas where human influence is low while simultaneously routing the corridors along present-day spatial gradients of temperature. We modified a cost-distance algorithm to model these corridors and tested the model with data on current land-use and climate patterns in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. The resulting maps identified a network of patches and corridors across which species may move as climates change. The corridors are likely to be robust to uncertainty in the magnitude and direction of future climate change because they are derived from gradients and land-use patterns. The assumptions we applied in our model simplified the stability of temperature gradients and species responses to climate change and land use, but the model is flexible enough to be tailored to specific regions by incorporating other climate variables or movement costs. When used at appropriate resolutions, our approach may be of value to local, regional, and continental conservation initiatives seeking to promote species movements in a changing climate. Planificación de Conectividad para Atender el Cambio Climático. PMID:23410037

  2. Coal in a changing climate

    SciTech Connect

    Lashof, D.A.; Delano, D.; Devine, J.

    2007-02-15

    The NRDC analysis examines the changing climate for coal production and use in the United States and China, the world's two largest producers and consumers of coal. The authors say that the current coal fuel cycle is among the most destructive activities on earth, placing an unacceptable burden on public health and the environment. There is no such thing as 'clean coal.' Our highest priorities must be to avoid increased reliance on coal and to accelerate the transition to an energy future based on efficient use of renewable resources. Energy efficiency and renewable energy resources are technically capable of meeting the demands for energy services in countries that rely on coal. However, more than 500 conventional coal-fired power plants are expected in China in the next eight years alone, and more than 100 are under development in the United States. Because it is very likely that significant coal use will continue during the transition to renewables, it is important that we also take the necessary steps to minimize the destructive effects of coal use. That requires the U.S. and China to take steps now to end destructive mining practices and to apply state of the art pollution controls, including CO{sub 2} control systems, to sources that use coal. Contents of the report are: Introduction; Background (Coal Production; Coal Use); The Toll from Coal (Environmental Effects of Coal Production; Environmental Effects of Coal Transportation); Environmental Effects of Coal Use (Air Pollutants; Other Pollutants; Environmental Effects of Coal Use in China); What Is the Future for Coal? (Reducing Fossil Fuel Dependence; Reducing the Impacts of Coal Production; Reducing Damage From Coal Use; Global Warming and Coal); and Conclusion. 2 tabs.

  3. Megaproject reclamation and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rooney, Rebecca C.; Robinson, Derek T.; Petrone, Rich

    2015-11-01

    Megaprojects such as oil sands mining require large-scale and long-term closure and reclamation plans. Yet these plans are created and approved without considering future climate and hydrological conditions, jeopardizing the sustainability of reclaimed landscapes.

  4. Integrating Climate Change into Great Lakes Protection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hedman, S.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change is now recognized as one of the greatest threats to the Great Lakes. Projected climate change impacts to the Great Lakes include increases in surface water and air temperature; decreases in ice cover; shorter winters, early spring, and longer summers; increased frequency of intense storms; more precipitation falling as rain in the winter; less snowfall; and variations in water levels, among other effects. Changing climate conditions may compromise efforts to protect and restore the Great Lakes ecosystem and may lead to irrevocable impacts on the physical, chemical, and biological integrity of the Great Lakes. Examples of such potential impacts include the transformation of coastal wetlands into terrestrial ecosystems; reduced fisheries; increased beach erosion; change in forest species composition as species migrate northward; potential increase in toxic substance concentrations; potential increases in the frequency and extent of algal blooms; degraded water quality; and a potential increase in invasive species. The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative, signed into law by President Obama in 2010, represents the commitment of the federal government to protect, restore, and maintain the Great Lakes ecosystem. The GLRI Action Plan, issued in February 2010, identifies five focus areas: - Toxic Substances and Areas of Concern - Invasive Species - Nearshore Health and Nonpoint Source Pollution - Habitat and Wildlife Protection and Restoration - Accountability, Education, Monitoring, Evaluation, Communication, and Partnerships The Action Plan recognizes that the projected impacts of climate change on the Great Lakes have implications across all focus areas and encourages incorporation of climate change considerations into GLRI projects and programs as appropriate. Under the GLRI, EPA has funded climate change-related work by states, tribes, federal agencies, academics and NGOs through competitive grants, state and tribal capacity grants, and Interagency

  5. Appropriate technology and climate change adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bandala, Erick R.; Patiño-Gomez, Carlos

    2016-02-01

    Climate change is emerging as the greatest significant environmental problem for the 21st Century and the most important global challenge faced by human kind. Based on evidence recognized by the international scientific community, climate change is already an unquestionable reality, whose first effects are beginning to be measured. Available climate projections and models can assist in anticipating potential far-reaching consequences for development processes. Climatic transformations will impact the environment, biodiversity and water resources, putting several productive processes at risk; and will represent a threat to public health and water availability in quantity and quality.

  6. Changing Medicine and Building Community: Maine’s Adverse Childhood Experiences Momentum

    PubMed Central

    Forstadt, Leslie; Cooper, Sally; Andrews, Sue Mackey

    2015-01-01

    Physicians are instrumental in community education, prevention, and intervention for adverse childhood experiences. In Maine, a statewide effort is focusing on education about adverse childhood experiences and ways that communities and physicians can approach childhood adversity. This article describes how education about adversity and resilience can positively change the practice of medicine and related fields. The Maine Resilience Building Network brings together ongoing programs, supports new ventures, and builds on existing resources to increase its impact. It exemplifies the collective impact model by increasing community knowledge, affecting medical practice, and improving lives. PMID:25902346

  7. Achieving Climate Change Absolute Accuracy in Orbit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wielicki, Bruce A.; Young, D. F.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Thome, K. J; Leroy, S.; Corliss, J.; Anderson, J. G.; Ao, C. O.; Bantges, R.; Best, F.; Bowman, K.; Brindley, H.; Butler, J. J.; Collins, W.; Dykema, J. A.; Doelling, D. R.; Feldman, D. R.; Fox, N.; Huang, X.; Holz, R.; Huang, Y.; Jennings, D.; Jin, Z.; Johnson, D. G.; Jucks, K.; Kato, S.; Kratz, D. P.; Liu, X.; Lukashin, C.; Mannucci, A. J.; Phojanamongkolkij, N.; Roithmayr, C. M.; Sandford, S.; Taylor, P. C.; Xiong, X.

    2013-01-01

    The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission will provide a calibration laboratory in orbit for the purpose of accurately measuring and attributing climate change. CLARREO measurements establish new climate change benchmarks with high absolute radiometric accuracy and high statistical confidence across a wide range of essential climate variables. CLARREO's inherently high absolute accuracy will be verified and traceable on orbit to Système Internationale (SI) units. The benchmarks established by CLARREO will be critical for assessing changes in the Earth system and climate model predictive capabilities for decades into the future as society works to meet the challenge of optimizing strategies for mitigating and adapting to climate change. The CLARREO benchmarks are derived from measurements of the Earth's thermal infrared spectrum (5-50 micron), the spectrum of solar radiation reflected by the Earth and its atmosphere (320-2300 nm), and radio occultation refractivity from which accurate temperature profiles are derived. The mission has the ability to provide new spectral fingerprints of climate change, as well as to provide the first orbiting radiometer with accuracy sufficient to serve as the reference transfer standard for other space sensors, in essence serving as a "NIST [National Institute of Standards and Technology] in orbit." CLARREO will greatly improve the accuracy and relevance of a wide range of space-borne instruments for decadal climate change. Finally, CLARREO has developed new metrics and methods for determining the accuracy requirements of climate observations for a wide range of climate variables and uncertainty sources. These methods should be useful for improving our understanding of observing requirements for most climate change observations.

  8. Climate change and species interactions: ways forward.

    PubMed

    Angert, Amy L; LaDeau, Shannon L; Ostfeld, Richard S

    2013-09-01

    With ongoing and rapid climate change, ecologists are being challenged to predict how individual species will change in abundance and distribution, how biotic communities will change in structure and function, and the consequences of these climate-induced changes for ecosystem functioning. It is now well documented that indirect effects of climate change on species abundances and distributions, via climatic effects on interspecific interactions, can outweigh and even reverse the direct effects of climate. However, a clear framework for incorporating species interactions into projections of biological change remains elusive. To move forward, we suggest three priorities for the research community: (1) utilize tractable study systems as case studies to illustrate possible outcomes, test processes highlighted by theory, and feed back into modeling efforts; (2) develop a robust analytical framework that allows for better cross-scale linkages; and (3) determine over what time scales and for which systems prediction of biological responses to climate change is a useful and feasible goal. We end with a list of research questions that can guide future research to help understand, and hopefully mitigate, the negative effects of climate change on biota and the ecosystem services they provide.

  9. Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pausas, Juli G.; Keeley, Jon E.

    2014-01-01

    Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.

  10. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

    MedlinePlus

    ... Progress Report (PDF, 11.3MB, May 2016) Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S. Climate change ... by 2050. Preparing for Increased Weather Risks Regional Climate Hubs In an effort to mitigate climate-related ...

  11. Effect of climate change on air quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacob, Daniel J.; Winner, Darrell A.

    Air quality is strongly dependent on weather and is therefore sensitive to climate change. Recent studies have provided estimates of this climate effect through correlations of air quality with meteorological variables, perturbation analyses in chemical transport models (CTMs), and CTM simulations driven by general circulation model (GCM) simulations of 21st-century climate change. We review these different approaches and their results. The future climate is expected to be more stagnant, due to a weaker global circulation and a decreasing frequency of mid-latitude cyclones. The observed correlation between surface ozone and temperature in polluted regions points to a detrimental effect of warming. Coupled GCM-CTM studies find that climate change alone will increase summertime surface ozone in polluted regions by 1-10 ppb over the coming decades, with the largest effects in urban areas and during pollution episodes. This climate penalty means that stronger emission controls will be needed to meet a given air quality standard. Higher water vapor in the future climate is expected to decrease the ozone background, so that pollution and background ozone have opposite sensitivities to climate change. The effect of climate change on particulate matter (PM) is more complicated and uncertain than for ozone. Precipitation frequency and mixing depth are important driving factors but projections for these variables are often unreliable. GCM-CTM studies find that climate change will affect PM concentrations in polluted environments by ±0.1-1 μg m -3 over the coming decades. Wildfires fueled by climate change could become an increasingly important PM source. Major issues that should be addressed in future research include the ability of GCMs to simulate regional air pollution meteorology and its sensitivity to climate change, the response of natural emissions to climate change, and the atmospheric chemistry of isoprene. Research needs to be undertaken on the effect of climate

  12. Climate Change and Children's Health: A Commentary.

    PubMed

    Stanley, Fiona; Farrant, Brad

    2015-01-01

    This commentary describes the likely impacts on children's health and wellbeing from climate change, based on the solid science of environmental child health. It describes likely climate change scenarios, why children are more vulnerable than older people to these changes, and what to expect in terms of diseases (e.g., infections, asthma) and problems (e.g., malnutrition, mental illness). The common antecedents of climate change and other detrimental changes to our society mean that in combatting them (such as excessive consumption and greed), we may not only reduce the harmful effects of climate change but also work towards a better society overall-one that values its children and their futures. PMID:27417373

  13. Cenozoic climate change influences mammalian evolutionary dynamics.

    PubMed

    Figueirido, Borja; Janis, Christine M; Pérez-Claros, Juan A; De Renzi, Miquel; Palmqvist, Paul

    2012-01-17

    Global climate change is having profound impacts on the natural world. However, climate influence on faunal dynamics at macroevolutionary scales remains poorly understood. In this paper we investigate the influence of climate over deep time on the diversity patterns of Cenozoic North American mammals. We use factor analysis to identify temporally correlated assemblages of taxa, or major evolutionary faunas that we can then study in relation to climatic change over the past 65 million years. These taxa can be grouped into six consecutive faunal associations that show some correspondence with the qualitative mammalian chronofaunas of previous workers. We also show that the diversity pattern of most of these chronofaunas can be correlated with the stacked deep-sea benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) curve, which strongly suggests climatic forcing of faunal dynamics over a large macroevolutionary timescale. This study demonstrates the profound influence of climate on the diversity patterns of North American terrestrial mammals over the Cenozoic.

  14. Cenozoic climate change influences mammalian evolutionary dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Figueirido, Borja; Janis, Christine M.; Pérez-Claros, Juan A.; De Renzi, Miquel; Palmqvist, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change is having profound impacts on the natural world. However, climate influence on faunal dynamics at macroevolutionary scales remains poorly understood. In this paper we investigate the influence of climate over deep time on the diversity patterns of Cenozoic North American mammals. We use factor analysis to identify temporally correlated assemblages of taxa, or major evolutionary faunas that we can then study in relation to climatic change over the past 65 million years. These taxa can be grouped into six consecutive faunal associations that show some correspondence with the qualitative mammalian chronofaunas of previous workers. We also show that the diversity pattern of most of these chronofaunas can be correlated with the stacked deep-sea benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope (δ18O) curve, which strongly suggests climatic forcing of faunal dynamics over a large macroevolutionary timescale. This study demonstrates the profound influence of climate on the diversity patterns of North American terrestrial mammals over the Cenozoic. PMID:22203974

  15. Prediction of climate variability and projection of climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Grassl, H.

    1996-12-31

    The years since 1985 have seen rapid progress in climate research. By the implementation of a new observing system in the Tropical Pacific Ocean combined with the development of adapted coupled ocean-atmosphere models the Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) project of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) led to the breakthrough to physically-based climate predictions. For most of the tropics and partly extending to mid-latitudes, climate anomalies can now be predicted for the next season and in some places even for the next year. On the other hand, global coupled ocean-atmosphere-land models have recently approached natural climate variability on time-scales to several decades to such an extent, that these models, partly validated with data from the past, became useful for answering the following two questions: Has mankind already changed global climate? Is anthropogenic global climate change, in the coming century, surmounting at least all variability observed during the last 10,000 years? Both questions are answered by yes. For the first question, the observed patterns of warming and cooling with respect to geographical, seasonal and vertical dependence can only be explained by a combined action of global greenhouse gas increase, regional sulfate aerosol load and stratospheric ozone depletion. For the second, even low climate sensitivity and low economic growth, will lead, if no measures are taken, to a mean global warming of 1.0 C, thus surmounting the warmest phase of the holocene. Implications of these findings for the implementation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change will also be discussed.

  16. Ecological response to global climatic change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Malanson, G.P.; Butler, D.R.; Walsh, S. J.; Janelle, Donald G.; Warf, Barney; Hansen, Kathy

    2004-01-01

    Climate change and ecological change go hand in hand. Because we value our ecological environment, any change has the potential to be a problem. Geographers have been drawn to this challenge, and have been successful in addressing it, because the primary ecological response to climate changes in the past — the waxing and waning of the great ice sheets over the past 2 million years – was the changing geographic range of the biota. Plants and animals changed their location. Geographers have been deeply involved in documenting the changing biota of the past, and today we are called upon to help assess the possible responses to ongoing and future climatic change and, thus, their impacts. Assessing the potential responses is important for policy makers to judge the outcomes of action or inaction and also sets the stage for preparation for and mitigation of change.

  17. How does climate change cause extinction?

    PubMed

    Cahill, Abigail E; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Fisher-Reid, M Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J; Ryu, Hae Yeong; Sbeglia, Gena C; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J

    2013-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.

  18. Invertebrates, ecosystem services and climate change.

    PubMed

    Prather, Chelse M; Pelini, Shannon L; Laws, Angela; Rivest, Emily; Woltz, Megan; Bloch, Christopher P; Del Toro, Israel; Ho, Chuan-Kai; Kominoski, John; Newbold, T A Scott; Parsons, Sheena; Joern, A

    2013-05-01

    The sustainability of ecosystem services depends on a firm understanding of both how organisms provide these services to humans and how these organisms will be altered with a changing climate. Unquestionably a dominant feature of most ecosystems, invertebrates affect many ecosystem services and are also highly responsive to climate change. However, there is still a basic lack of understanding of the direct and indirect paths by which invertebrates influence ecosystem services, as well as how climate change will affect those ecosystem services by altering invertebrate populations. This indicates a lack of communication and collaboration among scientists researching ecosystem services and climate change effects on invertebrates, and land managers and researchers from other disciplines, which becomes obvious when systematically reviewing the literature relevant to invertebrates, ecosystem services, and climate change. To address this issue, we review how invertebrates respond to climate change. We then review how invertebrates both positively and negatively influence ecosystem services. Lastly, we provide some critical future directions for research needs, and suggest ways in which managers, scientists and other researchers may collaborate to tackle the complex issue of sustaining invertebrate-mediated services under a changing climate.

  19. Lakes as sentinels of climate change

    PubMed Central

    Adrian, Rita; O’Reilly, Catherine M.; Zagarese, Horacio; Baines, Stephen B.; Hessen, Dag O.; Keller, Wendel; Livingstone, David M.; Sommaruga, Ruben; Straile, Dietmar; Van Donk, Ellen; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Winder, Monika

    2010-01-01

    While there is a general sense that lakes can act as sentinels of climate change, their efficacy has not been thoroughly analyzed. We identified the key response variables within a lake that act as indicators of the effects of climate change on both the lake and the catchment. These variables reflect a wide range of physical, chemical, and biological responses to climate. However, the efficacy of the different indicators is affected by regional response to climate change, characteristics of the catchment, and lake mixing regimes. Thus, particular indicators or combinations of indicators are more effective for different lake types and geographic regions. The extraction of climate signals can be further complicated by the influence of other environmental changes, such as eutrophication or acidification, and the equivalent reverse phenomena, in addition to other land-use influences. In many cases, however, confounding factors can be addressed through analytical tools such as detrending or filtering. Lakes are effective sentinels for climate change because they are sensitive to climate, respond rapidly to change, and integrate information about changes in the catchment. PMID:20396409

  20. How does climate change cause extinction?

    PubMed Central

    Cahill, Abigail E.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Fisher-Reid, M. Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J.; Yeong Ryu, Hae; Sbeglia, Gena C.; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B.; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J.

    2013-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies. PMID:23075836

  1. Climate as a driver of evolutionary change.

    PubMed

    Erwin, Douglas H

    2009-07-28

    The link between biodiversity and climate has been obvious to biologists since the work of von Humboldt in the early 1800s, but establishing the relationship of climate to ecological and evolutionary patterns is more difficult. On evolutionary timescales, climate can affect supply of energy by biotic and abiotic effects. Some of the best evidence for a link between biodiversity and climate comes from latitudinal gradients in diversity, which provide an avenue to explore the more general relationship between climate and evolution. Among the wide range of biotic hypotheses, those with the greatest empirical support indicate that warmer climates have provided the energetic foundation for increased biodiversity by fostering greater population size and thus increased extinction resistance; have increased metabolic scope; have allowed more species to exploit specialized niches as a result of greater available energy; and generated faster speciation and/or lower extinction rates. In combination with geologic evidence for carbon dioxide levels and changing areas of tropical seas, these observations provide the basis for a simple, first-order model of the relationship between climate through the Phanerozoic and evolutionary patterns and diversity. Such a model suggests that we should expect greatest marine diversity during globally warm intervals with dispersed continents, broad shelves and moderately extensive continental seas. Demonstrating a significant evolutionary response to either climate or climatic change is challenging, however, because of continuing uncertainties over patterns of Phanerozoic marine diversity and the variety of factors beyond climate that influence evolution. PMID:19640496

  2. Climate as a driver of evolutionary change.

    PubMed

    Erwin, Douglas H

    2009-07-28

    The link between biodiversity and climate has been obvious to biologists since the work of von Humboldt in the early 1800s, but establishing the relationship of climate to ecological and evolutionary patterns is more difficult. On evolutionary timescales, climate can affect supply of energy by biotic and abiotic effects. Some of the best evidence for a link between biodiversity and climate comes from latitudinal gradients in diversity, which provide an avenue to explore the more general relationship between climate and evolution. Among the wide range of biotic hypotheses, those with the greatest empirical support indicate that warmer climates have provided the energetic foundation for increased biodiversity by fostering greater population size and thus increased extinction resistance; have increased metabolic scope; have allowed more species to exploit specialized niches as a result of greater available energy; and generated faster speciation and/or lower extinction rates. In combination with geologic evidence for carbon dioxide levels and changing areas of tropical seas, these observations provide the basis for a simple, first-order model of the relationship between climate through the Phanerozoic and evolutionary patterns and diversity. Such a model suggests that we should expect greatest marine diversity during globally warm intervals with dispersed continents, broad shelves and moderately extensive continental seas. Demonstrating a significant evolutionary response to either climate or climatic change is challenging, however, because of continuing uncertainties over patterns of Phanerozoic marine diversity and the variety of factors beyond climate that influence evolution.

  3. Tools for Teaching Climate Change Studies

    SciTech Connect

    Maestas, A.M.; Jones, L.A.

    2005-03-18

    The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility (ACRF) develops public outreach materials and educational resources for schools. Studies prove that science education in rural and indigenous communities improves when educators integrate regional knowledge of climate and environmental issues into school curriculum and public outreach materials. In order to promote understanding of ACRF climate change studies, ACRF Education and Outreach has developed interactive kiosks about climate change for host communities close to the research sites. A kiosk for the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) community was installed at the Iupiat Heritage Center in 2003, and a kiosk for the Tropical Western Pacific locales will be installed in 2005. The kiosks feature interviews with local community elders, regional agency officials, and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program scientists, which highlight both research and local observations of some aspects of environmental and climatic change in the Arctic and Pacific. The kiosks offer viewers a unique opportunity to learn about the environmental concerns and knowledge of respected community elders, and to also understand state-of-the-art climate research. An archive of interviews from the communities will also be distributed with supplemental lessons and activities to encourage teachers and students to compare and contrast climate change studies and oral history observations from two distinct locations. The U.S. Department of Energy's ACRF supports education and outreach efforts for communities and schools located near its sites. ACRF Education and Outreach has developed interactive kiosks at the request of the communities to provide an opportunity for the public to learn about climate change from both scientific and indigenous perspectives. Kiosks include interviews with ARM scientists and provide users with basic information about climate change studies as well as interviews with elders and community leaders

  4. Conservation and adaptation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Brooke, Cassandra

    2008-12-01

    The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change.

  5. Conservation and adaptation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Brooke, Cassandra

    2008-12-01

    The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change. PMID:18759775

  6. Abrupt climate change and extinction events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crowley, Thomas J.

    1988-01-01

    There is a growing body of theoretical and empirical support for the concept of instabilities in the climate system, and indications that abrupt climate change may in some cases contribute to abrupt extinctions. Theoretical indications of instabilities can be found in a broad spectrum of climate models (energy balance models, a thermohaline model of deep-water circulation, atmospheric general circulation models, and coupled ocean-atmosphere models). Abrupt transitions can be of several types and affect the environment in different ways. There is increasing evidence for abrupt climate change in the geologic record and involves both interglacial-glacial scale transitions and the longer-term evolution of climate over the last 100 million years. Records from the Cenozoic clearly show that the long-term trend is characterized by numerous abrupt steps where the system appears to be rapidly moving to a new equilibrium state. The long-term trend probably is due to changes associated with plate tectonic processes, but the abrupt steps most likely reflect instabilities in the climate system as the slowly changing boundary conditions caused the climate to reach some threshold critical point. A more detailed analysis of abrupt steps comes from high-resolution studies of glacial-interglacial fluctuations in the Pleistocene. Comparison of climate transitions with the extinction record indicates that many climate and biotic transitions coincide. The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction is not a candidate for an extinction event due to instabilities in the climate system. It is quite possible that more detailed comparisons and analysis will indicate some flaws in the climate instability-extinction hypothesis, but at present it appears to be a viable candidate as an alternate mechanism for causing abrupt environmental changes and extinctions.

  7. The deep ocean under climate change.

    PubMed

    Levin, Lisa A; Le Bris, Nadine

    2015-11-13

    The deep ocean absorbs vast amounts of heat and carbon dioxide, providing a critical buffer to climate change but exposing vulnerable ecosystems to combined stresses of warming, ocean acidification, deoxygenation, and altered food inputs. Resulting changes may threaten biodiversity and compromise key ocean services that maintain a healthy planet and human livelihoods. There exist large gaps in understanding of the physical and ecological feedbacks that will occur. Explicit recognition of deep-ocean climate mitigation and inclusion in adaptation planning by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) could help to expand deep-ocean research and observation and to protect the integrity and functions of deep-ocean ecosystems.

  8. In Brief: Action on climate change urged

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2008-06-01

    The science academies of the G8 countries-along with those in China, India, Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa-on 10 June issued a joint statement urging leaders at July's G8 Summit in Japan to take action on climate change. The statement indicates, ``Responding to climate change requires both mitigation and adaptation to achieve a transition to a low carbon society and our global sustainability objectives.'' In the statement, the academies urge all nations, and particularly those participating in the summit, to take a series of actions to deal with climate change. The statement is available at http://www.nationalacademies.org/includes/climatechangestatement.pdf.

  9. The deep ocean under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levin, Lisa A.; Le Bris, Nadine

    2015-11-01

    The deep ocean absorbs vast amounts of heat and carbon dioxide, providing a critical buffer to climate change but exposing vulnerable ecosystems to combined stresses of warming, ocean acidification, deoxygenation, and altered food inputs. Resulting changes may threaten biodiversity and compromise key ocean services that maintain a healthy planet and human livelihoods. There exist large gaps in understanding of the physical and ecological feedbacks that will occur. Explicit recognition of deep-ocean climate mitigation and inclusion in adaptation planning by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) could help to expand deep-ocean research and observation and to protect the integrity and functions of deep-ocean ecosystems.

  10. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN CHEMICAL AND CLIMATE STRESSORS: A ROLE FOR MECHANISTIC TOXICOLOGY IN ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS

    PubMed Central

    Hooper, Michael J; Ankley, Gerald T; Cristol, Daniel A; Maryoung, Lindley A; Noyes, Pamela D; Pinkerton, Kent E

    2013-01-01

    Incorporation of global climate change (GCC) effects into assessments of chemical risk and injury requires integrated examinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. Environmental variables altered by GCC (temperature, precipitation, salinity, pH) can influence the toxicokinetics of chemical absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion as well as toxicodynamic interactions between chemicals and target molecules. In addition, GCC challenges processes critical for coping with the external environment (water balance, thermoregulation, nutrition, and the immune, endocrine, and neurological systems), leaving organisms sensitive to even slight perturbations by chemicals when pushed to the limits of their physiological tolerance range. In simplest terms, GCC can make organisms more sensitive to chemical stressors, while alternatively, exposure to chemicals can make organisms more sensitive to GCC stressors. One challenge is to identify potential interactions between nonchemical and chemical stressors affecting key physiological processes in an organism. We employed adverse outcome pathways, constructs depicting linkages between mechanism-based molecular initiating events and impacts on individuals or populations, to assess how chemical- and climate-specific variables interact to lead to adverse outcomes. Case examples are presented for prospective scenarios, hypothesizing potential chemical–GCC interactions, and retrospective scenarios, proposing mechanisms for demonstrated chemical–climate interactions in natural populations. Understanding GCC interactions along adverse outcome pathways facilitates extrapolation between species or other levels of organization, development of hypotheses and focal areas for further research, and improved inputs for risk and resource injury assessments. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:32–48. © 2012 SETAC PMID:23136056

  11. Interactions between chemical and climate stressors: a role for mechanistic toxicology in assessing climate change risks.

    PubMed

    Hooper, Michael J; Ankley, Gerald T; Cristol, Daniel A; Maryoung, Lindley A; Noyes, Pamela D; Pinkerton, Kent E

    2013-01-01

    Incorporation of global climate change (GCC) effects into assessments of chemical risk and injury requires integrated examinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. Environmental variables altered by GCC (temperature, precipitation, salinity, pH) can influence the toxicokinetics of chemical absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion as well as toxicodynamic interactions between chemicals and target molecules. In addition, GCC challenges processes critical for coping with the external environment (water balance, thermoregulation, nutrition, and the immune, endocrine, and neurological systems), leaving organisms sensitive to even slight perturbations by chemicals when pushed to the limits of their physiological tolerance range. In simplest terms, GCC can make organisms more sensitive to chemical stressors, while alternatively, exposure to chemicals can make organisms more sensitive to GCC stressors. One challenge is to identify potential interactions between nonchemical and chemical stressors affecting key physiological processes in an organism. We employed adverse outcome pathways, constructs depicting linkages between mechanism-based molecular initiating events and impacts on individuals or populations, to assess how chemical- and climate-specific variables interact to lead to adverse outcomes. Case examples are presented for prospective scenarios, hypothesizing potential chemical-GCC interactions, and retrospective scenarios, proposing mechanisms for demonstrated chemical-climate interactions in natural populations. Understanding GCC interactions along adverse outcome pathways facilitates extrapolation between species or other levels of organization, development of hypotheses and focal areas for further research, and improved inputs for risk and resource injury assessments.

  12. Interactions between chemical and climate stressors: A role for mechanistic toxicology in assessing climate change risks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hooper, Michael J.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Cristol, Daniel A.; Maryoung, Lindley A.; Noyes, Pamela D.; Pinkerton, Kent E.

    2013-01-01

    Incorporation of global climate change (GCC) effects into assessments of chemical risk and injury requires integrated examinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. Environmental variables altered by GCC (temperature, precipitation, salinity, pH) can influence the toxicokinetics of chemical absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion as well as toxicodynamic interactions between chemicals and target molecules. In addition, GCC challenges processes critical for coping with the external environment (water balance, thermoregulation, nutrition, and the immune, endocrine, and neurological systems), leaving organisms sensitive to even slight perturbations by chemicals when pushed to the limits of their physiological tolerance range. In simplest terms, GCC can make organisms more sensitive to chemical stressors, while alternatively, exposure to chemicals can make organisms more sensitive to GCC stressors. One challenge is to identify potential interactions between nonchemical and chemical stressors affecting key physiological processes in an organism. We employed adverse outcome pathways, constructs depicting linkages between mechanism-based molecular initiating events and impacts on individuals or populations, to assess how chemical- and climate-specific variables interact to lead to adverse outcomes. Case examples are presented for prospective scenarios, hypothesizing potential chemical–GCC interactions, and retrospective scenarios, proposing mechanisms for demonstrated chemical–climate interactions in natural populations. Understanding GCC interactions along adverse outcome pathways facilitates extrapolation between species or other levels of organization, development of hypotheses and focal areas for further research, and improved inputs for risk and resource injury assessments.

  13. Planning for climate change: the need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases

    PubMed Central

    Levy, Karen; Zimmerman, Julie; Elliott, Mark; Bartram, Jamie; Carlton, Elizabeth; Clasen, Thomas; Dillingham, Rebecca; Eisenberg, Joseph; Guerrant, Richard; Lantagne, Daniele; Mihelcic, James; Nelson, Kara

    2016-01-01

    Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies. PMID:26799810

  14. Planning for climate change: The need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases.

    PubMed

    Mellor, Jonathan E; Levy, Karen; Zimmerman, Julie; Elliott, Mark; Bartram, Jamie; Carlton, Elizabeth; Clasen, Thomas; Dillingham, Rebecca; Eisenberg, Joseph; Guerrant, Richard; Lantagne, Daniele; Mihelcic, James; Nelson, Kara

    2016-04-01

    Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies.

  15. Planning for climate change: The need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases.

    PubMed

    Mellor, Jonathan E; Levy, Karen; Zimmerman, Julie; Elliott, Mark; Bartram, Jamie; Carlton, Elizabeth; Clasen, Thomas; Dillingham, Rebecca; Eisenberg, Joseph; Guerrant, Richard; Lantagne, Daniele; Mihelcic, James; Nelson, Kara

    2016-04-01

    Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies. PMID:26799810

  16. Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Shang-Ping; Deser, Clara; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Collins, Matthew; Delworth, Thomas L.; Hall, Alex; Hawkins, Ed; Johnson, Nathaniel C.; Cassou, Christophe; Giannini, Alessandra; Watanabe, Masahiro

    2015-10-01

    Regional information on climate change is urgently needed but often deemed unreliable. To achieve credible regional climate projections, it is essential to understand underlying physical processes, reduce model biases and evaluate their impact on projections, and adequately account for internal variability. In the tropics, where atmospheric internal variability is small compared with the forced change, advancing our understanding of the coupling between long-term changes in upper-ocean temperature and the atmospheric circulation will help most to narrow the uncertainty. In the extratropics, relatively large internal variability introduces substantial uncertainty, while exacerbating risks associated with extreme events. Large ensemble simulations are essential to estimate the probabilistic distribution of climate change on regional scales. Regional models inherit atmospheric circulation uncertainty from global models and do not automatically solve the problem of regional climate change. We conclude that the current priority is to understand and reduce uncertainties on scales greater than 100 km to aid assessments at finer scales.

  17. Influence of Climate Changes on Health (Review).

    PubMed

    Pop-Jordanova, Nada; Grigorova, Evgenija

    2015-01-01

    Although climate changes are one of the most serious public health risks for all nations, it appears that the medical society in the East European countries is not too much concerned. The aim of this paper is to point out the main treats on health provoked by climate changes. The literature review was the source of information. Based on the PubMed where in 2015 more than 65,000 papers were dedicated to different aspects of the influence of the climate changes on the human health, as well as 3,500 articles for the pediatric population, we present a review of the main health risks. Especially, the impact of the climate changes on the children's health is overviewed. In separate parts, the thermal stress, extreme weather events, changes of infection's pattern, how to measure health risks as well as some mitigation measures are discussed. PMID:27442405

  18. Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production in Nigeria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.; Spano, D.

    2011-12-01

    The agricultural sector in Nigeria is particularly important for the country's food security, natural resources, and growth agenda. The cultivable areas comprise more than 70% of the total area; however, the cultivated area is about the 35% of the total area. The most important components in the food basket of the nation are cereals and tubers, which include rice, maize, corn, millet, sorghum, yam, and cassava. These crops represent about 80% of the total agricultural product in Nigeria (from NPAFS). The major crops grown in the country can be divided into food crops (produced for consumption) and export products. Despite the importance of the export crops, the primary policy of agriculture is to make Nigeria self-sufficient in its food and fiber requirements. The projected impacts of future climate change on agriculture and water resources are expected to be adverse and extensive in these area. This implies the need for actions and measures to adapt to climate change impacts, and especially as they affect agriculture, the primary sector for Nigerian economy. In the framework of the Project Climate Risk Analysis in Nigeria (founded by World Bank Contract n.7157826), a study was made to assess the potential impact of climate change on the main crops that characterize Nigerian agriculture. The DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5 was used for the analysis. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT are tools that simulate physiological processes of crop growth, development and production by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. For each selected crop, the models were calibrated to evaluate climate change impacts on crop production. The climate data used for the analysis are derived by the Regional Circulation Model COSMO-CLM, from 1971 to 2065, at 8 km of spatial resolution. The RCM model output was "perturbed" with 10 Global Climate Models to have

  19. Physiological mechanisms in coping with climate change.

    PubMed

    Fuller, Andrea; Dawson, Terence; Helmuth, Brian; Hetem, Robyn S; Mitchell, Duncan; Maloney, Shane K

    2010-01-01

    Although many studies have modeled the effects of climate change on future species distributions and extinctions, the theoretical approach most commonly used-climate envelope modeling-typically ignores the potential physiological capacity of animals to respond to climate change. We explore the consequences of the phenotypic plasticity available to animals, by examining physiological responses of free-living animals in their natural habitats and by applying integrative, mechanistic models of heat exchange in invertebrates and humans. Specifically, we explore how behavioral, autonomic, and morphological modifications such as nocturnal activity, selective brain cooling, and body color may potentially serve as buffers to the consequences of climate change. Although some species may adapt to climate change through phenotypic plasticity, there are significant limits to this strategy. Furthermore, predictions of the response of organisms to changes in climate can be erroneous when modeled at large scales using coarse spatial or temporal data. Environmental heterogeneity can provide habitats suitable for species even though large-scale changes in the climate might predict a species' extinction. A detailed understanding of physiology, combined with integrative biophysical modeling and ecological manipulation, provides a powerful tool for predicting future ecological patterns and managing their consequences.

  20. Identifying uncertainties in Arctic climate change projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hodson, Daniel L. R.; Keeley, Sarah P. E.; West, Alex; Ridley, Jeff; Hawkins, Ed; Hewitt, Helene T.

    2013-06-01

    Wide ranging climate changes are expected in the Arctic by the end of the 21st century, but projections of the size of these changes vary widely across current global climate models. This variation represents a large source of uncertainty in our understanding of the evolution of Arctic climate. Here we systematically quantify and assess the model uncertainty in Arctic climate changes in two CO2 doubling experiments: a multimodel ensemble (CMIP3) and an ensemble constructed using a single model (HadCM3) with multiple parameter perturbations (THC-QUMP). These two ensembles allow us to assess the contribution that both structural and parameter variations across models make to the total uncertainty and to begin to attribute sources of uncertainty in projected changes. We find that parameter uncertainty is an major source of uncertainty in certain aspects of Arctic climate. But also that uncertainties in the mean climate state in the 20th century, most notably in the northward Atlantic ocean heat transport and Arctic sea ice volume, are a significant source of uncertainty for projections of future Arctic change. We suggest that better observational constraints on these quantities will lead to significant improvements in the precision of projections of future Arctic climate change.

  1. Vegetation zones shift in changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belda, Michal; Halenka, Tomas; Kalvova, Jaroslava; Holtanova, Eva

    2016-04-01

    The analysis of climate patterns can be performed for each climate variable separately or the data can be aggregated using e.g. some kind of climate classification. These classifications usually correspond to vegetation distribution in the sense that each climate type is dominated by one vegetation zone or eco-region. In case of the Köppen-Trewartha classification it is integrated assessment of temperature and precipitation together with their annual cycle as well. This way climate classifications also represent a convenient tool for the assessment and validation of climate models and for the analysis of simulated future climate changes. The Köppen-Trewartha classification is used on full CMIP5 family of more than 40 GCM simulations and CRU dataset for comparison. This evaluation provides insight on the GCM performance and errors for simulations of the 20th century climate. Common regions are identified, such as Australia or Amazonia, where many state-of-the-art models perform inadequately. Furthermore, the analysis of the CMIP5 ensemble for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 is performed to assess the climate change for future. There are significant changes for some types in most models e.g. increase of savanna and decrease of tundra for the future climate. For some types significant shifts in latitude can be seen when studying their geographical location in selected continental areas, e.g. toward higher latitudes for boreal climate. For Europe, EuroCORDEX results for both 0.11 and 0.44 degree resolution are validated using Köppen-Trewartha types in comparison to E-OBS based classification. ERA-Interim driven simulations are compared to both present conditions of CMIP5 models as well as their downscaling by EuroCORDEX RCMs. Finally, the climate change signal assessment is provided using the individual climate types. In addition to the changes assessed similarly as for GCMs analysis in terms of the area of individual types, in the continental scale some shifts of boundaries

  2. Diagnosis Earth: The Climate Change Debate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderegg, William R. L.

    2010-01-01

    In the scrum of popular and political discourse on global warming, the scholarship of climate science is often left sitting on the sideline. Yet understanding the science and the scientists presents the best chance of developing an informed opinion about climate change. Confusion about the science, misunderstanding of risk assessment and…

  3. A Cooperative Classroom Investigation of Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Constible, Juanita; Sandro, Luke; Lee, Richard E., Jr.

    2007-01-01

    Scientists have a particularly difficult time explaining warming trends in Antarctica--a region with a relatively short history of scientific observation and a highly variable climate (Clarke et al. 2007). Regardless of the mechanism of warming, however, climate change is having a dramatic impact on Antarctic ecosystems. In this article, the…

  4. Climate Change: The Evidence and Our Options

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Lonnie G.

    2010-01-01

    Glaciers serve as early indicators of climate change. Over the last 35 years, our research team has recovered ice-core records of climatic and environmental variations from the polar regions and from low-latitude high-elevation ice fields from 16 countries. The ongoing widespread melting of high-elevation glaciers and ice caps, particularly in low…

  5. Ecology: Fungal feedbacks to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Natali, Susan M.; Mack, Michelle C.

    2011-07-01

    Climate change is known to affect the carbon balance of Arctic tundra ecosystems by influencing plant growth and decomposition. Less predictable climate-driven biotic events, such as disease outbreaks, are now shown to potentially shift these ecosystems from net carbon sinks to sources.

  6. Climate Change, Conflict, and Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Akresh, Richard

    2016-01-01

    We have good reason to predict that a warming climate will produce more conflict and violence. A growing contingent of researchers has been examining the relationship in recent years, and they've found that hotter temperatures and reduced rainfall are linked to increases in conflict at all scales, from interpersonal violence to war. Children are…

  7. A Record of Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Zach

    2007-01-01

    The hydrologic cycle is a very basic scientific principle. In this article, background information is presented on how the hydrologic cycle provides scientists with clues to understanding the history of Earth's climate. Also detailed is a web-based activity that allows students to learn about how scientists are able to piece together a record of…

  8. Climate change and plant disease management.

    PubMed

    Coakley, S M; Scherm, H; Chakraborty, S

    1999-09-01

    ▪ Abstract  Research on impacts of climate change on plant diseases has been limited, with most work concentrating on the effects of a single atmospheric constituent or meteorological variable on the host, pathogen, or the interaction of the two under controlled conditions. Results indicate that climate change could alter stages and rates of development of the pathogen, modify host resistance, and result in changes in the physiology of host-pathogen interactions. The most likely consequences are shifts in the geographical distribution of host and pathogen and altered crop losses, caused in part by changes in the efficacy of control strategies. Recent developments in experimental and modeling techniques offer considerable promise for developing an improved capability for climate change impact assessment and mitigation. Compared with major technological, environmental, and socioeconomic changes affecting agricultural production during the next century, climate change may be less important; it will, however, add another layer of complexity and uncertainty onto a system that is already exceedingly difficult to manage on a sustainable basis. Intensified research on climate change-related issues could result in improved understanding and management of plant diseases in the face of current and future climate extremes. PMID:11701829

  9. Leading the Way: Tribal Colleges Prepare Students to Address Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sorensen, Barbara Ellen

    2011-01-01

    Across the United States, tribal people are noticing adverse changes in the natural world due to climate change--and these changes affect their cultures. Today, tribal colleges and universities (TCUs) are developing and delivering the education and research opportunities needed to produce the next generation of American Indian science,…

  10. Tolerance adaptation and precipitation changes complicate latitudinal patterns of climate change impacts.

    PubMed

    Bonebrake, Timothy C; Mastrandrea, Michael D

    2010-07-13

    Global patterns of biodiversity and comparisons between tropical and temperate ecosystems have pervaded ecology from its inception. However, the urgency in understanding these global patterns has been accentuated by the threat of rapid climate change. We apply an adaptive model of environmental tolerance evolution to global climate data and climate change model projections to examine the relative impacts of climate change on different regions of the globe. Our results project more adverse impacts of warming on tropical populations due to environmental tolerance adaptation to conditions of low interannual variability in temperature. When applied to present variability and future forecasts of precipitation data, the tolerance adaptation model found large reductions in fitness predicted for populations in high-latitude northern hemisphere regions, although some tropical regions had comparable reductions in fitness. We formulated an evolutionary regional climate change index (ERCCI) to additionally incorporate the predicted changes in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. Based on this index, we suggest that the magnitude of climate change impacts could be much more heterogeneous across latitude than previously thought. Specifically, tropical regions are likely to be just as affected as temperate regions and, in some regions under some circumstances, possibly more so.

  11. Undergraduate Students As Effective Climate Change Communicators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharif, H. O.; Joseph, J.; Mullendore, G. L.

    2014-12-01

    The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA), San Antonio College (SAC), and the University of North Dakota (UND) have partnered with NASA to provide underrepresented undergraduates from UTSA, SAC, and other community colleges climate-related research and education experiences through the Climate Change Communication: Engineer, Environmental science, and Education (C3E3) project. The program aims to develop a robust response to climate change by providing K-16 climate change education; enhance the effectiveness of K-16 education particularly in engineering and other STEM disciplines by use of new instructional technologies; increase the enrollment in engineering programs and the number of engineering degrees awarded by showing engineering's usefulness in relation to the much-discussed contemporary issue of climate change; increase persistence in STEM degrees by providing student research opportunities; and increase the ethnic diversity of those receiving engineering degrees and help ensure an ethnically diverse response to climate change. Students participated in the second summer internship funded by the project. The program is in its third year. More than 75 students participated in a guided research experiences aligned with NASA Science Plan objectives for climate and Earth system science and the educational objectives of the three institutions. The students went through training in modern media technology (webcasts), and in using this technology to communicate the information on climate change to others, especially high school students, culminating in production of webcasts on investigating the aspects of climate change using NASA data. Content developed is leveraged by NASA Earth observation data and NASA Earth system models and tools. Three Colleges were involved in the program: Engineering, Education, and Science.

  12. Climate Change and Maize Yield in Iowa

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Hong; Twine, Tracy E.; Girvetz, Evan

    2016-01-01

    Climate is changing across the world, including the major maize-growing state of Iowa in the USA. To maintain crop yields, farmers will need a suite of adaptation strategies, and choice of strategy will depend on how the local to regional climate is expected to change. Here we predict how maize yield might change through the 21st century as compared with late 20th century yields across Iowa, USA, a region representing ideal climate and soils for maize production that contributes substantially to the global maize economy. To account for climate model uncertainty, we drive a dynamic ecosystem model with output from six climate models and two future climate forcing scenarios. Despite a wide range in the predicted amount of warming and change to summer precipitation, all simulations predict a decrease in maize yields from late 20th century to middle and late 21st century ranging from 15% to 50%. Linear regression of all models predicts a 6% state-averaged yield decrease for every 1°C increase in warm season average air temperature. When the influence of moisture stress on crop growth is removed from the model, yield decreases either remain the same or are reduced, depending on predicted changes in warm season precipitation. Our results suggest that even if maize were to receive all the water it needed, under the strongest climate forcing scenario yields will decline by 10–20% by the end of the 21st century. PMID:27219116

  13. Climate change and maize yield in Iowa

    DOE PAGES

    Xu, Hong; Twine, Tracy E.; Girvetz, Evan

    2016-05-24

    Climate is changing across the world, including the major maize-growing state of Iowa in the USA. To maintain crop yields, farmers will need a suite of adaptation strategies, and choice of strategy will depend on how the local to regional climate is expected to change. Here we predict how maize yield might change through the 21st century as compared with late 20th century yields across Iowa, USA, a region representing ideal climate and soils for maize production that contributes substantially to the global maize economy. To account for climate model uncertainty, we drive a dynamic ecosystem model with output frommore » six climate models and two future climate forcing scenarios. Despite a wide range in the predicted amount of warming and change to summer precipitation, all simulations predict a decrease in maize yields from late 20th century to middle and late 21st century ranging from 15% to 50%. Linear regression of all models predicts a 6% state-averaged yield decrease for every 1°C increase in warm season average air temperature. When the influence of moisture stress on crop growth is removed from the model, yield decreases either remain the same or are reduced, depending on predicted changes in warm season precipitation. Lastly, our results suggest that even if maize were to receive all the water it needed, under the strongest climate forcing scenario yields will decline by 10-20% by the end of the 21st century.« less

  14. Climate Change and Maize Yield in Iowa.

    PubMed

    Xu, Hong; Twine, Tracy E; Girvetz, Evan

    2016-01-01

    Climate is changing across the world, including the major maize-growing state of Iowa in the USA. To maintain crop yields, farmers will need a suite of adaptation strategies, and choice of strategy will depend on how the local to regional climate is expected to change. Here we predict how maize yield might change through the 21st century as compared with late 20th century yields across Iowa, USA, a region representing ideal climate and soils for maize production that contributes substantially to the global maize economy. To account for climate model uncertainty, we drive a dynamic ecosystem model with output from six climate models and two future climate forcing scenarios. Despite a wide range in the predicted amount of warming and change to summer precipitation, all simulations predict a decrease in maize yields from late 20th century to middle and late 21st century ranging from 15% to 50%. Linear regression of all models predicts a 6% state-averaged yield decrease for every 1°C increase in warm season average air temperature. When the influence of moisture stress on crop growth is removed from the model, yield decreases either remain the same or are reduced, depending on predicted changes in warm season precipitation. Our results suggest that even if maize were to receive all the water it needed, under the strongest climate forcing scenario yields will decline by 10-20% by the end of the 21st century.

  15. Conservation Planning with Uncertain Climate Change Projections

    PubMed Central

    Moilanen, Atte; Araújo, Miguel B.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is affecting biodiversity worldwide, but conservation responses are constrained by considerable uncertainty regarding the magnitude, rate and ecological consequences of expected climate change. Here we propose a framework to account for several sources of uncertainty in conservation prioritization. Within this framework we account for uncertainties arising from (i) species distributions that shift following climate change, (ii) basic connectivity requirements of species, (iii) alternative climate change scenarios and their impacts, (iv) in the modelling of species distributions, and (v) different levels of confidence about present and future. When future impacts of climate change are uncertain, robustness of decision-making can be improved by quantifying the risks and trade-offs associated with climate scenarios. Sensible prioritization that accounts simultaneously for the present and potential future distributions of species is achievable without overly jeopardising present-day conservation values. Doing so requires systematic treatment of uncertainties and testing of the sensitivity of results to assumptions about climate. We illustrate the proposed framework by identifying priority areas for amphibians and reptiles in Europe. PMID:23405068

  16. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  17. Modelling climate change and malaria transmission.

    PubMed

    Parham, Paul E; Michael, Edwin

    2010-01-01

    The impact of climate change on human health has received increasing attention in recent years, with potential impacts due to vector-borne diseases only now beginning to be understood. As the most severe vector-borne disease, with one million deaths globally in 2006, malaria is thought most likely to be affected by changes in climate variables due to the sensitivity of its transmission dynamics to environmental conditions. While considerable research has been carried out using statistical models to better assess the relationship between changes in environmental variables and malaria incidence, less progress has been made on developing process-based climate-driven mathematical models with greater explanatory power. Here, we develop a simple model of malaria transmission linked to climate which permits useful insights into the sensitivity of disease transmission to changes in rainfall and temperature variables. Both the impact of changes in the mean values of these key external variables and importantly temporal variation in these values are explored. We show that the development and analysis of such dynamic climate-driven transmission models will be crucial to understanding the rate at which P. falciparum and P. vivax may either infect, expand into or go extinct in populations as local environmental conditions change. Malaria becomes endemic in a population when the basic reproduction number R0 is greater than unity and we identify an optimum climate-driven transmission window for the disease, thus providing a useful indicator for determing how transmission risk may change as climate changes. Overall, our results indicate that considerable work is required to better understand ways in which global malaria incidence and distribution may alter with climate change. In particular, we show that the roles of seasonality, stochasticity and variability in environmental variables, as well as ultimately anthropogenic effects, require further study. The work presented here

  18. How does climate change influence Arctic mercury?

    PubMed

    Stern, Gary A; Macdonald, Robie W; Outridge, Peter M; Wilson, Simon; Chételat, John; Cole, Amanda; Hintelmann, Holger; Loseto, Lisa L; Steffen, Alexandra; Wang, Feiyue; Zdanowicz, Christian

    2012-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that climate change is already having significant impacts on many aspects of transport pathways, speciation and cycling of mercury within Arctic ecosystems. For example, the extensive loss of sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean and the concurrent shift from greater proportions of perennial to annual types have been shown to promote changes in primary productivity, shift foodweb structures, alter mercury methylation and demethylation rates, and influence mercury distribution and transport across the ocean-sea-ice-atmosphere interface (bottom-up processes). In addition, changes in animal social behavior associated with changing sea-ice regimes can affect dietary exposure to mercury (top-down processes). In this review, we address these and other possible ramifications of climate variability on mercury cycling, processes and exposure by applying recent literature to the following nine questions; 1) What impact has climate change had on Arctic physical characteristics and processes? 2) How do rising temperatures affect atmospheric mercury chemistry? 3) Will a decrease in sea-ice coverage have an impact on the amount of atmospheric mercury deposited to or emitted from the Arctic Ocean, and if so, how? 4) Does climate affect air-surface mercury flux, and riverine mercury fluxes, in Arctic freshwater and terrestrial systems, and if so, how? 5) How does climate change affect mercury methylation/demethylation in different compartments in the Arctic Ocean and freshwater systems? 6) How will climate change alter the structure and dynamics of freshwater food webs, and thereby affect the bioaccumulation of mercury? 7) How will climate change alter the structure and dynamics of marine food webs, and thereby affect the bioaccumulation of marine mercury? 8) What are the likely mercury emissions from melting glaciers and thawing permafrost under climate change scenarios? and 9) What can be learned from current mass balance inventories of mercury in the Arctic? The

  19. Green cities, smart people and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mansouri Kouhestani, F.; Byrne, J. M.; Hazendonk, P.; Brown, M. B.; Harrison, T.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change will require substantial changes to urban environments. Cities are huge sources of greenhouse gases. Further, cities will suffer tremendously under climate change due to heat stresses, urban flooding, energy and water supply and demand changes, transportation problems, resource supply and demand and a host of other trials and tribulations. Cities that evolve most quickly and efficiently to deal with climate change will likely take advantage of the changes to create enjoyable, healthy and safer living spaces for families and communities. Technology will provide much of the capability to both mitigate and adapt our cities BUT education and coordination of citizen and community lifestyle likely offers equal opportunities to make our cities more sustainable and more enjoyable places to live. This work is the first phase of a major project evaluating urban mitigation and adaptation policies, programs and technologies. All options are considered, from changes in engineering, planning and management; and including a range of citizen and population-based lifestyle practices.

  20. Responses of large mammals to climate change

    PubMed Central

    Hetem, Robyn S; Fuller, Andrea; Maloney, Shane K; Mitchell, Duncan

    2014-01-01

    Most large terrestrial mammals, including the charismatic species so important for ecotourism, do not have the luxury of rapid micro-evolution or sufficient range shifts as strategies for adjusting to climate change. The rate of climate change is too fast for genetic adaptation to occur in mammals with longevities of decades, typical of large mammals, and landscape fragmentation and population by humans too widespread to allow spontaneous range shifts of large mammals, leaving only the expression of latent phenotypic plasticity to counter effects of climate change. The expression of phenotypic plasticity includes anatomical variation within the same species, changes in phenology, and employment of intrinsic physiological and behavioral capacity that can buffer an animal against the effects of climate change. Whether that buffer will be realized is unknown, because little is known about the efficacy of the expression of plasticity, particularly for large mammals. Future research in climate change biology requires measurement of physiological characteristics of many identified free-living individual animals for long periods, probably decades, to allow us to detect whether expression of phenotypic plasticity will be sufficient to cope with climate change.

  1. Climate change, uncertainty, and natural resource management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Koneff, M.D.; Heglund, P.J.; Knutson, M.G.; Seamans, M.E.; Lyons, J.E.; Morton, J.M.; Jones, M.T.; Boomer, G.S.; Williams, B.K.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change and its associated uncertainties are of concern to natural resource managers. Although aspects of climate change may be novel (e.g., system change and nonstationarity), natural resource managers have long dealt with uncertainties and have developed corresponding approaches to decision-making. Adaptive resource management is an application of structured decision-making for recurrent decision problems with uncertainty, focusing on management objectives, and the reduction of uncertainty over time. We identified 4 types of uncertainty that characterize problems in natural resource management. We examined ways in which climate change is expected to exacerbate these uncertainties, as well as potential approaches to dealing with them. As a case study, we examined North American waterfowl harvest management and considered problems anticipated to result from climate change and potential solutions. Despite challenges expected to accompany the use of adaptive resource management to address problems associated with climate change, we conclude that adaptive resource management approaches will be the methods of choice for managers trying to deal with the uncertainties of climate change. ?? 2010 The Wildlife Society.

  2. Climate change and health in Earth's future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowles, Devin C.; Butler, Colin D.; Friel, Sharon

    2014-02-01

    Threats to health from climate change are increasingly recognized, yet little research into the effects upon health systems is published. However, additional demands on health systems are increasingly documented. Pathways include direct weather impacts, such as amplified heat stress, and altered ecological relationships, including alterations to the distribution and activity of pathogens and vectors. The greatest driver of demand on future health systems from climate change may be the alterations to socioeconomic systems; however, these "tertiary effects" have received less attention in the health literature. Increasing demands on health systems from climate change will impede health system capacity. Changing weather patterns and sea-level rise will reduce food production in many developing countries, thus fostering undernutrition and concomitant disease susceptibility. Associated poverty will impede people's ability to access and support health systems. Climate change will increase migration, potentially exposing migrants to endemic diseases for which they have limited resistance, transporting diseases and fostering conditions conducive to disease transmission. Specific predictions of timing and locations of migration remain elusive, hampering planning and misaligning needs and infrastructure. Food shortages, migration, falling economic activity, and failing government legitimacy following climate change are also "risk multipliers" for conflict. Injuries to combatants, undernutrition, and increased infectious disease will result. Modern conflict often sees health personnel and infrastructure deliberately targeted and disease surveillance and eradication programs obstructed. Climate change will substantially impede economic growth, reducing health system funding and limiting health system adaptation. Modern medical care may be snatched away from millions who recently obtained it.

  3. Responses of large mammals to climate change

    PubMed Central

    Hetem, Robyn S; Fuller, Andrea; Maloney, Shane K; Mitchell, Duncan

    2014-01-01

    Most large terrestrial mammals, including the charismatic species so important for ecotourism, do not have the luxury of rapid micro-evolution or sufficient range shifts as strategies for adjusting to climate change. The rate of climate change is too fast for genetic adaptation to occur in mammals with longevities of decades, typical of large mammals, and landscape fragmentation and population by humans too widespread to allow spontaneous range shifts of large mammals, leaving only the expression of latent phenotypic plasticity to counter effects of climate change. The expression of phenotypic plasticity includes anatomical variation within the same species, changes in phenology, and employment of intrinsic physiological and behavioral capacity that can buffer an animal against the effects of climate change. Whether that buffer will be realized is unknown, because little is known about the efficacy of the expression of plasticity, particularly for large mammals. Future research in climate change biology requires measurement of physiological characteristics of many identified free-living individual animals for long periods, probably decades, to allow us to detect whether expression of phenotypic plasticity will be sufficient to cope with climate change. PMID:27583293

  4. Responses of large mammals to climate change.

    PubMed

    Hetem, Robyn S; Fuller, Andrea; Maloney, Shane K; Mitchell, Duncan

    2014-01-01

    Most large terrestrial mammals, including the charismatic species so important for ecotourism, do not have the luxury of rapid micro-evolution or sufficient range shifts as strategies for adjusting to climate change. The rate of climate change is too fast for genetic adaptation to occur in mammals with longevities of decades, typical of large mammals, and landscape fragmentation and population by humans too widespread to allow spontaneous range shifts of large mammals, leaving only the expression of latent phenotypic plasticity to counter effects of climate change. The expression of phenotypic plasticity includes anatomical variation within the same species, changes in phenology, and employment of intrinsic physiological and behavioral capacity that can buffer an animal against the effects of climate change. Whether that buffer will be realized is unknown, because little is known about the efficacy of the expression of plasticity, particularly for large mammals. Future research in climate change biology requires measurement of physiological characteristics of many identified free-living individual animals for long periods, probably decades, to allow us to detect whether expression of phenotypic plasticity will be sufficient to cope with climate change. PMID:27583293

  5. Responses of large mammals to climate change.

    PubMed

    Hetem, Robyn S; Fuller, Andrea; Maloney, Shane K; Mitchell, Duncan

    2014-01-01

    Most large terrestrial mammals, including the charismatic species so important for ecotourism, do not have the luxury of rapid micro-evolution or sufficient range shifts as strategies for adjusting to climate change. The rate of climate change is too fast for genetic adaptation to occur in mammals with longevities of decades, typical of large mammals, and landscape fragmentation and population by humans too widespread to allow spontaneous range shifts of large mammals, leaving only the expression of latent phenotypic plasticity to counter effects of climate change. The expression of phenotypic plasticity includes anatomical variation within the same species, changes in phenology, and employment of intrinsic physiological and behavioral capacity that can buffer an animal against the effects of climate change. Whether that buffer will be realized is unknown, because little is known about the efficacy of the expression of plasticity, particularly for large mammals. Future research in climate change biology requires measurement of physiological characteristics of many identified free-living individual animals for long periods, probably decades, to allow us to detect whether expression of phenotypic plasticity will be sufficient to cope with climate change.

  6. Climate change and managing water crisis: Pakistan's perspective.

    PubMed

    Hussain, Mumtaz; Mumtaz, Saniea

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is a global phenomenon manifested mainly through global warming. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has reported its negative consequences on natural resources, anthropogenic activities, and natural disasters. The El Nino and La Nina have affected hydrologic regimes and ecosystems. It has been observed that the average temperature in 1995 was 0.4°C higher than that in 1895. By the end of the 21st century, 10% of the area of Bangladesh is likely to be submerged by the sea. Most of the islands of Pacific Ocean will disappear. A major part of Maldives will be submerged. The sea level is expected to rise by 30-150 cm. Extreme events such as floods, cyclones, tsunamis, and droughts have become regular phenomena in many parts of the world. Other adverse impacts are proliferation of water-borne diseases, sea water intrusion, salinization of coastal areas, loss of biodiversity, eco-degradation of watersheds and global glacial decline, and haphazard snow melts/thaws. In turn, these factors have serious effect on water resources. Pakistan is confronting similar climate change. Meteorological data reveal that winter temperatures are rising and summers are getting cooler. Temperature is expected to increase by 0.9°C and 1.5°C by years 2020 and 2050, respectively. Water resources in Pakistan are affected by climate change as it impacts the behavior of glaciers, rainfall patterns, greenhouse gas emissions, recurrence of extreme events such as floods and droughts. Severe floods have occurred in the years 1950, 1956, 1957, 1973, 1976, 1978, 1988, 1992, 2010, 2011, and 2012. Pakistan has faced the worst-ever droughts during the period from 1998 to 2004. Pakistan has surface water potential of 140 million acre feet (MAF) and underground water reserve of 56 MAF. It is one of the most water-stressed countries in the world. The per capita annual availability of water has reduced from 5140 m3 in 1950 to 1000 m3 now. It is fast approaching towards water

  7. Climate change and managing water crisis: Pakistan's perspective.

    PubMed

    Hussain, Mumtaz; Mumtaz, Saniea

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is a global phenomenon manifested mainly through global warming. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has reported its negative consequences on natural resources, anthropogenic activities, and natural disasters. The El Nino and La Nina have affected hydrologic regimes and ecosystems. It has been observed that the average temperature in 1995 was 0.4°C higher than that in 1895. By the end of the 21st century, 10% of the area of Bangladesh is likely to be submerged by the sea. Most of the islands of Pacific Ocean will disappear. A major part of Maldives will be submerged. The sea level is expected to rise by 30-150 cm. Extreme events such as floods, cyclones, tsunamis, and droughts have become regular phenomena in many parts of the world. Other adverse impacts are proliferation of water-borne diseases, sea water intrusion, salinization of coastal areas, loss of biodiversity, eco-degradation of watersheds and global glacial decline, and haphazard snow melts/thaws. In turn, these factors have serious effect on water resources. Pakistan is confronting similar climate change. Meteorological data reveal that winter temperatures are rising and summers are getting cooler. Temperature is expected to increase by 0.9°C and 1.5°C by years 2020 and 2050, respectively. Water resources in Pakistan are affected by climate change as it impacts the behavior of glaciers, rainfall patterns, greenhouse gas emissions, recurrence of extreme events such as floods and droughts. Severe floods have occurred in the years 1950, 1956, 1957, 1973, 1976, 1978, 1988, 1992, 2010, 2011, and 2012. Pakistan has faced the worst-ever droughts during the period from 1998 to 2004. Pakistan has surface water potential of 140 million acre feet (MAF) and underground water reserve of 56 MAF. It is one of the most water-stressed countries in the world. The per capita annual availability of water has reduced from 5140 m3 in 1950 to 1000 m3 now. It is fast approaching towards water

  8. Serious Simulation Role-Playing Games for Transformative Climate Change Education: "World Climate" and "Future Climate"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.; Jones, A.; Merhi, H.; Hunt, C.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change, its mitigation, and adaption to its impacts are among the greatest challenges of our times. Despite the importance of societal decisions in determining climate change outcomes, flawed mental models about climate change remain widespread, are often deeply entrenched, and present significant barriers to understanding and decision-making around climate change. Here, we describe two simulation role-playing games that combine active, affective, and analytical learning to enable shifts of deeply held conceptions about climate change. The games, World Climate and Future Climate, use a state-of-the-art decision support simulation, C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview and Decision Support) to provide users with immediate feedback on the outcomes of their mitigation strategies at the national level, including global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and concentrations, mean temperature changes, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. C-ROADS outcomes are consistent with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMS), such as those used by the IPCC, but runs in less than one second on ordinary laptops, providing immediate feedback to participants on the consequences of their proposed policies. Both World Climate and Future Climate role-playing games provide immersive, situated learning experiences that motivate active engagement with climate science and policy. In World Climate, participants play the role of United Nations climate treaty negotiators. Participant emissions reductions proposals are continually assessed through interactive exploration of the best available science through C-ROADS. Future Climate focuses on time delays in the climate and energy systems. Participants play the roles of three generations: today's policymakers, today's youth, and 'just born.' The game unfolds in three rounds 25 simulated years apart. In the first round, only today's policymakers make decisions; In the next round, the young become the policymakers and inherit the

  9. NASA Now: Climate Change: Sea Level Rise

    NASA Video Gallery

    Dr. Josh Willis discusses the connection between oceans and global climate change. Learn why NASA measures greenhouse gases and how we detect ocean levels from space. These are crucial vital signs ...

  10. Chikungunya, climate change, and human rights.

    PubMed

    Meason, Braden; Paterson, Ryan

    2014-06-14

    Chikungunya is a re-emerging arbovirus that causes significant morbidity and some mortality. Global climate change leading to warmer temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns allow mosquito vectors to thrive at altitudes and at locations where they previously have not, ultimately leading to a spread of mosquito-borne diseases. While mutations to the chikungunya virus are responsible for some portion of the re-emergence, chikungunya epidemiology is closely tied with weather patterns in Southeast Asia. Extrapolation of this regional pattern, combined with known climate factors impacting the spread of malaria and dengue, summate to a dark picture of climate change and the spread of this disease from south Asia and Africa into Europe and North America. This review describes chikungunya and collates current data regarding its spread in which climate change plays an important part. We also examine human rights obligations of States and others to protect against this disease.

  11. Climate change: Carbon losses in the Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirk, Guy

    2016-07-01

    Soil carbon stocks depend on inputs from decomposing vegetation and return to the atmosphere as CO2. Monitoring of carbon stocks in German alpine soils has shown large losses linked to climate change and a possible positive feedback loop.

  12. Fire Management for Climate Change Refugia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilkin, K. M.; Ackerly, D.; Stephens, S.

    2015-12-01

    Early climate change ideas predicted catastrophic species extinctions. As scientists probed more deeply into species responses, a more nuanced perspective emerged indicating that some species may persist in microrefugia (refugia), especially in mountainous terrain. Refugia are habitat that buffer climate changes and allows species to persist in - and to potentially expand under - changing environmental conditions. While climate and species interactions in refugia have been noted as sources of uncertainty, land management practices and disturbances, such as wildland fire, must also be considered when assessing any given refugium. Our landscape scale study suggests that areas thought to act as small-scale refugia, cold-air pools, have unique fire occurrence and severity patterns in frequent-fire mixed conifer forests of California's Sierra Nevada: cold-air pool refugia have less fire and if it occurs, it is lower severity. Active management for climate change adaptation strategies may be required to maintain these distinctive and potentially important refugia.

  13. Climatic Change--Past, Present & Future

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lindholm, Roy C.

    1976-01-01

    Presented is a review of studies investigating factors affecting climatic changes in the Earth's atmosphere--past, present, and future. Dating methods, particularly the Oxygen 18/16 method, are discussed. (SL)

  14. Psychology: Climate change and group dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Postmes, Tom

    2015-03-01

    The characteristics and views of people sceptical about climate change have been analysed extensively. A study now confirms that sceptics in the US have some characteristics of a social movement, but shows that the same group dynamics propel believers.

  15. Carbon cycle feedbacks and future climate change.

    PubMed

    Friedlingstein, Pierre

    2015-11-13

    Climate and carbon cycle are tightly coupled on many timescales, from interannual to multi-millennial timescales. Observations always evidence a positive feedback, warming leading to release of carbon to the atmosphere; however, the processes at play differ depending on the timescales. State-of-the-art Earth System Models now represent these climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, always simulating a positive feedback over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, although with substantial uncertainty. Recent studies now help to reduce this uncertainty. First, on short timescales, El Niño years record larger than average atmospheric CO2 growth rate, with tropical land ecosystems being the main drivers. These climate-carbon cycle anomalies can be used as emerging constraint on the tropical land carbon response to future climate change. Second, centennial variability found in last millennium records can be used to constrain the overall global carbon cycle response to climatic excursions. These independent methods point to climate-carbon cycle feedback at the low-end of the Earth System Models range, indicating that these models overestimate the carbon cycle sensitivity to climate change. These new findings also help to attribute the historical land and ocean carbon sinks to increase in atmospheric CO2 and climate change. PMID:26438284

  16. Carbon cycle feedbacks and future climate change.

    PubMed

    Friedlingstein, Pierre

    2015-11-13

    Climate and carbon cycle are tightly coupled on many timescales, from interannual to multi-millennial timescales. Observations always evidence a positive feedback, warming leading to release of carbon to the atmosphere; however, the processes at play differ depending on the timescales. State-of-the-art Earth System Models now represent these climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, always simulating a positive feedback over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, although with substantial uncertainty. Recent studies now help to reduce this uncertainty. First, on short timescales, El Niño years record larger than average atmospheric CO2 growth rate, with tropical land ecosystems being the main drivers. These climate-carbon cycle anomalies can be used as emerging constraint on the tropical land carbon response to future climate change. Second, centennial variability found in last millennium records can be used to constrain the overall global carbon cycle response to climatic excursions. These independent methods point to climate-carbon cycle feedback at the low-end of the Earth System Models range, indicating that these models overestimate the carbon cycle sensitivity to climate change. These new findings also help to attribute the historical land and ocean carbon sinks to increase in atmospheric CO2 and climate change.

  17. Improving Communication About Potentially Catastrophic Risks of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, R. E. T.; Stern, N. H.

    2014-12-01

    Scientific assessments of future climate change tend to focus on central estimates and may understate or ignore the significance of low probability outcomes that may have extremely severe consequences. This relative neglect of tail risks is partly a result of traditions in prediction and forecasting, and conservatism about phenomena for which few data and information exist. The misinterpretation of such scientific assessments can have adverse results. Even though the central estimates of high emissions scenarios present obvious dangers, the tails of lower emissions scenarios still contain very serious risks which may be overlooked by policy-makers. Economic analyses may omit the possibility of catastrophic impacts, leading to substantial under-estimates of damage caused by climate change. So how do we avoid these shortcomings and achieve more effective communication about the risks of climate change? The scientific assessments of climate change differ in significant ways from the formal risk assessment methods successfully employed in other fields. We outline a 'good practice' approach to the identification, assessment and communication of potentially catastrophic risks based on examples from sectors such as civil engineering, national security and insurance. We illustrate how this 'good practice' approach could be applied to provide a better presentation of some catastrophic tail risks that are outlined in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The risks we consider include the possibility of 'extreme' rises in temperature and sea level lying outside the central projections described in the report, and the plausibility of significant releases of methane from the thawing of permafrost. Using these illustrations, we examine how scientific researchers can improve their communication about climate change to assist decision-making, and how policy-makers and politicians might respond differently to alternative presentations of

  18. Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate-Chemistry Interactions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Isaksen, I.S.A.; Granier, C.; Myhre, G.; Bernsten, T. K.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Gauss, S.; Klimont, Z.; Benestad, R.; Bousquet, P.; Collins, W.; Cox, T.; Eyring, V.; Fowler, D.; Fuzzi, S.; Jockel, P.; Laj, P.; Lohmann, U.; Maione, M.; Monks, T.; Prevot, A. S. H.; Raes, F.; Richter, A.; Rognerud, B.; Schulz, M.; Shindell, D.; Stevenson, D. S.; Storelvmo, T.; Wang, W.-C.; vanWeele, M.; Wild, M.; Wuebbles, D.

    2011-01-01

    Chemically active climate compounds are either primary compounds such as methane (CH4), removed by oxidation in the atmosphere, or secondary compounds such as ozone (O3), sulfate and organic aerosols, formed and removed in the atmosphere. Man-induced climate-chemistry interaction is a two-way process: Emissions of pollutants change the atmospheric composition contributing to climate change through the aforementioned climate components, and climate change, through changes in temperature, dynamics, the hydrological cycle, atmospheric stability, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions, affects the atmospheric composition and oxidation processes in the troposphere. Here we present progress in our understanding of processes of importance for climate-chemistry interactions, and their contributions to changes in atmospheric composition and climate forcing. A key factor is the oxidation potential involving compounds such as O3 and the hydroxyl radical (OH). Reported studies represent both current and future changes. Reported results include new estimates of radiative forcing based on extensive model studies of chemically active climate compounds such as O3, and of particles inducing both direct and indirect effects. Through EU projects such as ACCENT, QUANTIFY, and the AEROCOM project, extensive studies on regional and sector-wise differences in the impact on atmospheric distribution are performed. Studies have shown that land-based emissions have a different effect on climate than ship and aircraft emissions, and different measures are needed to reduce the climate impact. Several areas where climate change can affect the tropospheric oxidation process and the chemical composition are identified. This can take place through enhanced stratospheric-tropospheric exchange of ozone, more frequent periods with stable conditions favouring pollution build up over industrial areas, enhanced temperature-induced biogenic emissions, methane releases from permafrost thawing, and enhanced

  19. Stratospheric aerosols and climatic change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Toon, O. B.; Pollack, J. B.

    1978-01-01

    Stratospht1ic sulfuric acid particles scatter and absorb sunlight and they scatter, absorb and emit terrestrial thermal radiation. These interactions play a role in the earth's radiation balance and therefore affect climate. The stratospheric aerosols are perturbed by volcanic injection of SO2 and ash, by aircraft injection of SO2, by rocket exhaust of Al2O3 and by tropospheric mixing of particles and pollutant SO2 and COS. In order to assess the effects of these perturbations on climate, the effects of the aerosols on the radiation balance must be understood and in order to understand the radiation effects the properties of the aerosols must be known. The discussion covers the aerosols' effect on the radiation balance. It is shown that the aerosol size distribution controls whether the aerosols will tend to warm or cool the earth's surface. Calculations of aerosol properties, including size distribution, for various perturbation sources are carried out on the basis of an aerosol model. Calculations are also presented of the climatic impact of perturbed aerosols due to volcanic eruptions and Space Shuttle flights.

  20. Beyond Brainstorming: Exploring Climate Change Adaptation Strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garfin, Gregg; Jacobs, Katharine; Buizer, James

    2008-06-01

    Climate Change Adaptation for Water Managers; Oracle, Arizona, 4-5 February 2008; The most visible manifestation of climate change in the American Southwest is its effects on water resources. Since 1999, the region's water supplies and major rivers have been tested by burgeoning population growth and drought. Model projections suggest increasing drought severity and duration due to rising temperatures, increased evapotranspiration, and enhanced atmospheric circulation from the tropics (Hadley circulation).

  1. Impacts of climate change on fisheries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brander, Keith

    2010-02-01

    Evidence of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems is accumulating, but must be evaluated in the context of the "normal" climate cycles and variability which have caused fluctuations in fisheries throughout human history. The impacts on fisheries are due to a variety of direct and indirect effects of a number of physical and chemical factors, which include temperature, winds, vertical mixing, salinity, oxygen, pH and others. The direct effects act on the physiology, development rates, reproduction, behaviour and survival of individuals and can in some cases be studied experimentally and in controlled conditions. Indirect effects act via ecosystem processes and changes in the production of food or abundance of competitors, predators and pathogens. Recent studies of the effects of climate on primary production are reviewed and the consequences for fisheries production are evaluated through regional examples. Regional examples are also used to show changes in distribution and phenology of plankton and fish, which are attributed to climate. The role of discontinuous and extreme events (regime shifts, exceptional warm periods) is discussed. Changes in fish population processes can be investigated in experiments and by analysis of field data, particularly by assembling comparative data from regional examples. Although our existing knowledge is in many respects incomplete it nevertheless provides an adequate basis for improved management of fisheries and of marine ecosystems and for adapting to climate change. In order to adapt to changing climate, future monitoring and research must be closely linked to responsive, flexible and reflexive management systems.

  2. Mental health effects of climate change.

    PubMed

    Padhy, Susanta Kumar; Sarkar, Sidharth; Panigrahi, Mahima; Paul, Surender

    2015-01-01

    We all know that 2014 has been declared as the hottest year globally by the Meteorological department of United States of America. Climate change is a global challenge which is likely to affect the mankind in substantial ways. Not only climate change is expected to affect physical health, it is also likely to affect mental health. Increasing ambient temperatures is likely to increase rates of aggression and violent suicides, while prolonged droughts due to climate change can lead to more number of farmer suicides. Droughts otherwise can lead to impaired mental health and stress. Increased frequency of disasters with climate change can lead to posttraumatic stress disorder, adjustment disorder, and depression. Changes in climate and global warming may require population to migrate, which can lead to acculturation stress. It can also lead to increased rates of physical illnesses, which secondarily would be associated with psychological distress. The possible effects of mitigation measures on mental health are also discussed. The paper concludes with a discussion of what can and should be done to tackle the expected mental health issues consequent to climate change.

  3. The global land rush and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, Kyle Frankel; Rulli, Maria Cristina; D'Odorico, Paolo

    2015-08-01

    Climate change poses a serious global challenge in the face of rapidly increasing human demand for energy and food. A recent phenomenon in which climate change may play an important role is the acquisition of large tracts of land in the developing world by governments and corporations. In the target countries, where land is relatively inexpensive, the potential to increase crop yields is generally high and property rights are often poorly defined. By acquiring land, investors can realize large profits and countries can substantially alter the land and water resources under their control, thereby changing their outlook for meeting future demand. While the drivers, actors, and impacts involved with land deals have received substantial attention in the literature, we propose that climate change plays an important yet underappreciated role, both through its direct effects on agricultural production and through its influence on mitigative or adaptive policy decisions. Drawing from various literature sources as well as a new global database on reported land deals, we trace the evolution of the global land rush and highlight prominent examples in which the role of climate change is evident. We find that climate change—both historical and anticipated—interacts substantially with drivers of land acquisitions, having important implications for the resilience of communities in targeted areas. As a result of this synthesis, we ultimately contend that considerations of climate change should be integrated into future policy decisions relating to the large-scale land acquisitions.

  4. Mental health effects of climate change.

    PubMed

    Padhy, Susanta Kumar; Sarkar, Sidharth; Panigrahi, Mahima; Paul, Surender

    2015-01-01

    We all know that 2014 has been declared as the hottest year globally by the Meteorological department of United States of America. Climate change is a global challenge which is likely to affect the mankind in substantial ways. Not only climate change is expected to affect physical health, it is also likely to affect mental health. Increasing ambient temperatures is likely to increase rates of aggression and violent suicides, while prolonged droughts due to climate change can lead to more number of farmer suicides. Droughts otherwise can lead to impaired mental health and stress. Increased frequency of disasters with climate change can lead to posttraumatic stress disorder, adjustment disorder, and depression. Changes in climate and global warming may require population to migrate, which can lead to acculturation stress. It can also lead to increased rates of physical illnesses, which secondarily would be associated with psychological distress. The possible effects of mitigation measures on mental health are also discussed. The paper concludes with a discussion of what can and should be done to tackle the expected mental health issues consequent to climate change. PMID:26023264

  5. Framing Climate Change to Account for Values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hassol, S. J.

    2011-12-01

    Belief, trust and values are important but generally overlooked in efforts to communicate climate change. Because climate change has often been framed too narrowly as an environmental issue, it has failed to engage segments of the public for whom environmentalism is not an important value. Worse, for some of these people, environmentalism and the policies that accompany it may be seen as a threat to their core values, such as the importance of personal freedoms and the free market. Climate science educators can improve this situation by more appropriately framing climate change as an issue affecting the economy and our most basic human needs: food, water, shelter, security, health, jobs, and the safety of our families. Further, because people trust and listen to those with whom they share cultural values, climate change educators can stress the kinds of values their audiences share. They can also enlist the support of opinion leaders known for holding these values. In addition, incorporating messages about solutions to climate change and their many benefits to economic prosperity, human health, and other values is an important component of meeting this challenge. We must also recognize that local impacts are of greater concern to most people than changes that feel distant in place and time. Different audiences have different concerns, and effective educators will learn what their audiences care about and tailor their messages accordingly.

  6. Evaluating Global Climate Change Education Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weston, T. J.

    2011-12-01

    The Global Climate Change Education initiative (GCCE) is a multi-site effort funded by the National Science Foundation to develop web resources. The objective of curricular modules is to improve content knowledge and change attitudes about climate change among undergraduate science students. The two-year evaluation of the project was conducted by Tim Weston from the University of Colorado. The small-scale evaluation first developed measures for attitude and content about climate change, and then administered the measures online. Analysis of results is ongoing. The evaluator wanted to know the attitudes and content knowledge of students after completing the modules, and if attitudes and content knowledge shifted from pre to post. An additional component of the evaluation focused on student understanding of specific global warming topics after completing the modules. Developing the test and survey involved reviewing existing measures, soliciting content from stakeholders in the grant, and then establishing a content framework that covered the important topics in climate change linked to project curricula. The pilot attitude measure contained fourteen agree/disagree items (I believe people should change their lifestyles to help minimize climate change), five self-assessment questions (How informed are you about the different causes of climate change? ), and wo previous experience questions about previous science courses taken, and actions related to climate change. The content measure contained 10 multiple-choice items asking about changes in global average temperature, the scientific methods of climate change, and the primary countries and human activities responsible for climate change. Questions were designed to reflect a mixture of general science literacy about climate change and more specific content related knowledge taught in the curricula. Both content and attitude measures were piloted with students, who answered questions using a think-aloud" interview

  7. Tracking Public Beliefs About Anthropogenic Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Hamilton, Lawrence C; Hartter, Joel; Lemcke-Stampone, Mary; Moore, David W; Safford, Thomas G

    2015-01-01

    A simple question about climate change, with one choice designed to match consensus statements by scientists, was asked on 35 US nationwide, single-state or regional surveys from 2010 to 2015. Analysis of these data (over 28,000 interviews) yields robust and exceptionally well replicated findings on public beliefs about anthropogenic climate change, including regional variations, change over time, demographic bases, and the interacting effects of respondent education and political views. We find that more than half of the US public accepts the scientific consensus that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. A sizable, politically opposite minority (about 30 to 40%) concede the fact of climate change, but believe it has mainly natural causes. Few (about 10 to 15%) say they believe climate is not changing, or express no opinion. The overall proportions appear relatively stable nationwide, but exhibit place-to-place variations. Detailed analysis of 21 consecutive surveys within one fairly representative state (New Hampshire) finds a mild but statistically significant rise in agreement with the scientific consensus over 2010-2015. Effects from daily temperature are detectable but minor. Hurricane Sandy, which brushed New Hampshire but caused no disaster there, shows no lasting impact on that state's time series-suggesting that non-immediate weather disasters have limited effects. In all datasets political orientation dominates among individual-level predictors of climate beliefs, moderating the otherwise positive effects from education. Acceptance of anthropogenic climate change rises with education among Democrats and Independents, but not so among Republicans. The continuing series of surveys provides a baseline for tracking how future scientific, political, socioeconomic or climate developments impact public acceptance of the scientific consensus.

  8. The climate change and energy security nexus

    SciTech Connect

    King, Marcus Dubois; Gulledge, Jay

    2013-01-01

    The study of the impacts of climate change on national and interna-tional security has grown as a research field, particularly in the last five years. Within this broad field, academic scholarship has concentrated primarily on whether climate change is, or may become, a driver of violent conflict. This relationship remains highly contested. However, national security policy and many non-governmental organizations have identified climate change as a threat multiplier in conflict situations. The U.S. Department of Defense and the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defense have incorporated these findings into strategic planning documents such as the Quadrennial Defense Review and the Strategic Defence and Security Review. In contrast to the climate-conflict nexus, our analysis found that academic scholarship on the climate change and energy security nexus is small and more disciplinarily focused. In fact, a search of social science litera-ture found few sources, with a significant percentage of these works attribut-able to a single journal. Assuming that policymakers are more likely to rely on broader social science literature than technical or scientific journals, this leaves a limited foundation. This then begged the question: what are these sources? We identified a body of grey literature on the nexus of climate change and energy security of a greater size than the body of peer-reviewed social science literature. We reviewed fifty-eight recent reports, issue briefs, and transcripts to better understand the nexus of climate change and energy security, as well as to gain insight about the questions policymakers need answered by those undertaking the research. In this article, we describe the nature of the sources reviewed, highlight possible climate change and energy security linkages found within those sources, identify emerging risks, and offer conclusions that can guide further research.

  9. Tracking Public Beliefs About Anthropogenic Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Hamilton, Lawrence C.; Hartter, Joel; Lemcke-Stampone, Mary; Moore, David W.; Safford, Thomas G.

    2015-01-01

    A simple question about climate change, with one choice designed to match consensus statements by scientists, was asked on 35 US nationwide, single-state or regional surveys from 2010 to 2015. Analysis of these data (over 28,000 interviews) yields robust and exceptionally well replicated findings on public beliefs about anthropogenic climate change, including regional variations, change over time, demographic bases, and the interacting effects of respondent education and political views. We find that more than half of the US public accepts the scientific consensus that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. A sizable, politically opposite minority (about 30 to 40%) concede the fact of climate change, but believe it has mainly natural causes. Few (about 10 to 15%) say they believe climate is not changing, or express no opinion. The overall proportions appear relatively stable nationwide, but exhibit place-to-place variations. Detailed analysis of 21 consecutive surveys within one fairly representative state (New Hampshire) finds a mild but statistically significant rise in agreement with the scientific consensus over 2010–2015. Effects from daily temperature are detectable but minor. Hurricane Sandy, which brushed New Hampshire but caused no disaster there, shows no lasting impact on that state’s time series—suggesting that non-immediate weather disasters have limited effects. In all datasets political orientation dominates among individual-level predictors of climate beliefs, moderating the otherwise positive effects from education. Acceptance of anthropogenic climate change rises with education among Democrats and Independents, but not so among Republicans. The continuing series of surveys provides a baseline for tracking how future scientific, political, socioeconomic or climate developments impact public acceptance of the scientific consensus. PMID:26422694

  10. Tracking Public Beliefs About Anthropogenic Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Hamilton, Lawrence C; Hartter, Joel; Lemcke-Stampone, Mary; Moore, David W; Safford, Thomas G

    2015-01-01

    A simple question about climate change, with one choice designed to match consensus statements by scientists, was asked on 35 US nationwide, single-state or regional surveys from 2010 to 2015. Analysis of these data (over 28,000 interviews) yields robust and exceptionally well replicated findings on public beliefs about anthropogenic climate change, including regional variations, change over time, demographic bases, and the interacting effects of respondent education and political views. We find that more than half of the US public accepts the scientific consensus that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. A sizable, politically opposite minority (about 30 to 40%) concede the fact of climate change, but believe it has mainly natural causes. Few (about 10 to 15%) say they believe climate is not changing, or express no opinion. The overall proportions appear relatively stable nationwide, but exhibit place-to-place variations. Detailed analysis of 21 consecutive surveys within one fairly representative state (New Hampshire) finds a mild but statistically significant rise in agreement with the scientific consensus over 2010-2015. Effects from daily temperature are detectable but minor. Hurricane Sandy, which brushed New Hampshire but caused no disaster there, shows no lasting impact on that state's time series-suggesting that non-immediate weather disasters have limited effects. In all datasets political orientation dominates among individual-level predictors of climate beliefs, moderating the otherwise positive effects from education. Acceptance of anthropogenic climate change rises with education among Democrats and Independents, but not so among Republicans. The continuing series of surveys provides a baseline for tracking how future scientific, political, socioeconomic or climate developments impact public acceptance of the scientific consensus. PMID:26422694

  11. Climate change impacts on food system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, X.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

    2014-12-01

    Food system includes biophysical factors (climate, land and water), human environments (production technologies and food consumption, distribution and marketing), as well as the dynamic interactions within them. Climate change affects agriculture and food systems in various ways. Agricultural production can be influenced directly by climatic factors such as mean temperature rising, change in rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Eventually, climate change could cause shift of arable land, alteration of water availability, abnormal fluctuation of food prices, and increase of people at risk of malnutrition. This work aims to evaluate how climate change would affect agricultural production biophysically and how these effects would propagate to social factors at the global level. In order to model the complex interactions between the natural and social components, a Global Optimization model of Agricultural Land and Water resources (GOALW) is applied to the analysis. GOALW includes various demands of human society (food, feed, other), explicit production module, and irrigation water availability constraint. The objective of GOALW is to maximize global social welfare (consumers' surplus and producers' surplus).Crop-wise irrigation water use in different regions around the world are determined by the model; marginal value of water (MVW) can be obtained from the model, which implies how much additional welfare benefit could be gained with one unit increase in local water availability. Using GOALW, we will analyze two questions in this presentation: 1) how climate change will alter irrigation requirements and how the social system would buffer that by price/demand adjustment; 2) how will the MVW be affected by climate change and what are the controlling factors. These results facilitate meaningful insights for investment and adaptation strategies in sustaining world's food security under climate change.

  12. Women, e-waste, and technological solutions to climate change.

    PubMed

    McAllister, Lucy; Magee, Amanda; Hale, Benjamin

    2014-06-14

    In this paper, we argue that a crossover class of climate change solutions (which we term "technological solutions") may disproportionately and adversely impact some populations over others. We begin by situating our discussion in the wider climate discourse, particularly with regard to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the Basel Convention. We then suggest that many of the most attractive technological solutions to climate change, such as solar energy and electric car batteries, will likely add to the rapidly growing stream of electronic waste ("e-waste"). This e-waste may have negative downstream effects on otherwise disenfranchised populations. We argue that e-waste burdens women unfairly and disproportionately, affecting their mortality/morbidity and fertility, as well as the development of their children. Building on this, we claim that these injustices are more accurately captured as problems of recognition rather than distribution, since women are often institutionally under-acknowledged both in the workplace and in the home. Without institutional support and representation, women and children are deprived of adequate safety equipment, health precautions, and health insurance. Finally, we return to the question of climate justice in the context of the human right to health and argue for greater inclusion and recognition of women waste workers and other disenfranchised groups in forging future climate agreements.

  13. American Thoracic Society member survey on climate change and health.

    PubMed

    Sarfaty, Mona; Bloodhart, Brittany; Ewart, Gary; Thurston, George D; Balmes, John R; Guidotti, Tee L; Maibach, Edward W

    2015-02-01

    The American Thoracic Society (ATS), in collaboration with George Mason University, surveyed a random sample of ATS members to assess their perceptions of, clinical experiences with, and preferred policy responses to climate change. An e-mail containing an invitation from the ATS President and a link to an online survey was sent to 5,500 randomly selected U.S. members; up to four reminder e-mails were sent to nonrespondents. Responses were received from members in 49 states and the District of Columbia (n = 915); the response rate was 17%. Geographic distribution of respondents mirrored that of the sample. Survey estimates' confidence intervals were ±3.5% or smaller. Results indicate that a large majority of ATS members have concluded that climate change is happening (89%), that it is driven by human activity (68%), and that it is relevant to patient care ("a great deal"/"a moderate amount") (65%). A majority of respondents indicated they were already observing health impacts of climate change among their patients, most commonly as increases in chronic disease severity from air pollution (77%), allergic symptoms from exposure to plants or mold (58%), and severe weather injuries (57%). A larger majority anticipated seeing these climate-related health impacts in the next 2 decades. Respondents indicated that physicians and physician organizations should play an active role in educating patients, the public, and policy makers on the human health effects of climate change. Overall, ATS members are observing that human health is already adversely affected by climate change and support responses to address this situation. PMID:25535822

  14. American Thoracic Society member survey on climate change and health.

    PubMed

    Sarfaty, Mona; Bloodhart, Brittany; Ewart, Gary; Thurston, George D; Balmes, John R; Guidotti, Tee L; Maibach, Edward W

    2015-02-01

    The American Thoracic Society (ATS), in collaboration with George Mason University, surveyed a random sample of ATS members to assess their perceptions of, clinical experiences with, and preferred policy responses to climate change. An e-mail containing an invitation from the ATS President and a link to an online survey was sent to 5,500 randomly selected U.S. members; up to four reminder e-mails were sent to nonrespondents. Responses were received from members in 49 states and the District of Columbia (n = 915); the response rate was 17%. Geographic distribution of respondents mirrored that of the sample. Survey estimates' confidence intervals were ±3.5% or smaller. Results indicate that a large majority of ATS members have concluded that climate change is happening (89%), that it is driven by human activity (68%), and that it is relevant to patient care ("a great deal"/"a moderate amount") (65%). A majority of respondents indicated they were already observing health impacts of climate change among their patients, most commonly as increases in chronic disease severity from air pollution (77%), allergic symptoms from exposure to plants or mold (58%), and severe weather injuries (57%). A larger majority anticipated seeing these climate-related health impacts in the next 2 decades. Respondents indicated that physicians and physician organizations should play an active role in educating patients, the public, and policy makers on the human health effects of climate change. Overall, ATS members are observing that human health is already adversely affected by climate change and support responses to address this situation.

  15. Amazon deforestation and climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Shukla, J.; Nobre, C.; Sellers, P. )

    1990-03-16

    A coupled numerical model of the global atmosphere and biosphere has been used to assess the effects of Amazon deforestation on the regional and global climate. When the tropical forests in the model were replaced by degraded grass (pasture), there was a significant increase in surface temperature and a decrease in evapotranspiration and precipitation over Amazonia. In the simulation, the length of the dry season also increased; such an increase could make reestablishment of the tropical forests after massive deforestation particularly difficult. 31 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  16. Abrupt climate change: Mechanisms, patterns, and impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2012-08-01

    In the span of only a few decades, the global temperature can soar by more than a dozen degrees Celsius, a feat that 20 years ago was considered improbable, if not impossible. But recent research in the nascent field of rapid climate change has upended the dominant views of decades past. Focusing primarily on events during and after the most recent glaciation, from 80,000 years ago, the AGU monograph Abrupt Climate Change: Mechanisms, Patterns, and Impacts, edited by Harunur Rashid, Leonid Polyak, and Ellen Mosley-Thompson, explores the transient climate transitions that were only recently uncovered in climate proxies around the world. In this interview, Eos talks to Harunur Rashid about piecing together ancient climes, the effect of abrupt change on historical civilizations, and why younger researchers may be more worried about modern warming than their teachers.

  17. Solar ultraviolet radiation in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williamson, Craig E.; Zepp, Richard G.; Lucas, Robyn M.; Madronich, Sasha; Austin, Amy T.; Ballaré, Carlos L.; Norval, Mary; Sulzberger, Barbara; Bais, Alkiviadis F.; McKenzie, Richard L.; Robinson, Sharon A.; Häder, Donat-P.; Paul, Nigel D.; Bornman, Janet F.

    2014-06-01

    The projected large increases in damaging ultraviolet radiation as a result of global emissions of ozone-depleting substances have been forestalled by the success of the Montreal Protocol. New challenges are now arising in relation to climate change. We highlight the complex interactions between the drivers of climate change and those of stratospheric ozone depletion, and the positive and negative feedbacks among climate, ozone and ultraviolet radiation. These will result in both risks and benefits of exposure to ultraviolet radiation for the environment and human welfare. This Review synthesizes these new insights and their relevance in a world where changes in climate as well as in stratospheric ozone are altering exposure to ultraviolet radiation with largely unknown consequences for the biosphere.

  18. California Rare Endemics and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Espinoza, M.

    2010-12-01

    California is known for its wide variety of endemic flora, from its annuals such as the Eschscholzia californica (California poppy) to the perennials like the Arctostaphylos pallida (Alameda manzanita), which happens to be a rare species. Each species plays an important role in the biodiversity of California, yet there are species that are threatened, not only by human interaction and urbanization, but by climate change. Species that we seldom see are now on the verge of becoming eradicated; rare endemics similar to Arctostaphylos pallida are now facing a new challenge that may severely impair their survival. The climate has changed significantly over the twentieth century and it has affected the distribution of rare endemics in California, both geographically as well as within their climatic and edaphic niches. Lilaeopsis masonii is just one rare endemic, however it serves as a representative of the other 23 species that were studied. Using Maxent, a climate-modeling program, it was viable to construct two climate envelopes of the masonii species: the early century envelope (1930-1959) and the later century envelope (1990-2009). When these two climate envelopes were compared, it became clear that the later century climate envelope had contracted radically, reshaping the climate niche of all rare endemics in California due to an increase in temperature. It is possible to conclude that the future of rare endemics hangs in the balance, where one degree higher in temperature is enough to topple the scale.

  19. Enhancing the Communication of Climate Change Science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Somerville, R. C.; Hassol, S. J.

    2011-12-01

    Climate scientists have an important role to play in the critical task of informing the public, media and policymakers. Scientists can help in publicizing and illuminating climate science. However, this task requires combining climate science expertise with advanced communication skills. For example, it is entirely possible to convey scientific information accurately without using jargon or technical concepts unfamiliar to non-scientists. However, making this translation into everyday language is a job that few scientists have been trained to do. In this talk, we give examples from our recent experience working with scientists to enhance their ability to communicate well. Our work includes providing training, technical assistance, and communications tools to climate scientists and universities, government agencies, and research centers. Our experience ranges from preparing Congressional testimony to writing major climate science reports to appearing on television. We have also aided journalists in gathering reliable scientific information and identifying trustworthy experts. Additionally, we are involved in developing resources freely available online at climatecommunication.org. These include a feature on the links between climate change and extreme weather, a climate science primer, and graphics and video explaining key developments in climate change science.

  20. The climate crisis: An introductory guide to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.

    2011-06-01

    Human-induced climate change, sometimes called “global warming,” has, unfortunately, become a “hot” topic, embroiled in controversy, misinformation, and claims and counterclaims. It should not be this way, because there are many scientific facts that provide solid information on which to base policy. There is a very strong observational, theoretical, and modeling base in physical science that underpins current understanding of what has happened to Earth's climate and why and what the prospects are for the future under certain assumptions. Moreover, these changes have impacts, which are apt to grow, on the environment and human society. To avoid or reduce these impacts and the economic and human effects of undesirable future climate change requires actions that are strongly opposed by those with vested interests in the status quo, some of whom have funded misinformation campaigns that have successfully confused the public and some politicians, leading to paralysis in political action. Without mitigation of climate change, one would suppose that at least society would plan sensibly for the changes already happening and projected, but such future adaptation plans are also largely in limbo. The implication is that we will suffer the consequences. All of these aspects are addressed in this informative and attractive book, which is written for a fairly general but technically informed audience. The book is strongly based upon the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and therefore has a solid scientific basis. Many figures, graphs, and maps come from the three IPCC working group reports, although the captions often do not explain the detail shown. Given that the IPCC reports totaled nearly 3000 pages, to distill the complex material down to 249 pages is no mean task, and the authors have succeeded quite well.

  1. Navigating Negative Conversations in Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mandia, S. A.; Abraham, J. P.; Dash, J. W.; Ashley, M. C.

    2012-12-01

    Politically charged public discussions of climate change often lead to polarization as a direct result of many societal, economic, religious and other factors which form opinions. For instance, the general public views climate change as a political discussion rather than a scientific matter. Additionally, many media sources such as websites and mainstream venues and persons have served to promote the "controversy". Scientists who engage in a public discourse of climate change often encounter politically charged environments and audiences. Traditional presentations of the science without attention paid to political, social, or economic matters are likely to worsen the existing divide. An international organization, the Climate Science Rapid Response Team (CSRRT) suggests a strategy that can be used to navigate potentially troublesome situations with divided audiences. This approach can be used during live lecture presentations, and radio, print, or television interviews. The strategy involves identifying alternative motivations for taking action on climate change. The alternative motivations are tailored to the audience and can range from national defense, economic prosperity, religious motivation, patriotism, energy independence, or hunting/fishing reasons. Similar messaging modification can be used to faithfully and accurately convey the importance of taking action on climate change but present the motivations in a way that will be received by the audience.

  2. Estimating the Health Impact of Climate Change with Calibrated Climate Model Output.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Jingwen; Chang, Howard H; Fuentes, Montserrat

    2012-09-01

    Studies on the health impacts of climate change routinely use climate model output as future exposure projection. Uncertainty quantification, usually in the form of sensitivity analysis, has focused predominantly on the variability arise from different emission scenarios or multi-model ensembles. This paper describes a Bayesian spatial quantile regression approach to calibrate climate model output for examining to the risks of future temperature on adverse health outcomes. Specifically, we first estimate the spatial quantile process for climate model output using nonlinear monotonic regression during a historical period. The quantile process is then calibrated using the quantile functions estimated from the observed monitoring data. Our model also down-scales the gridded climate model output to the point-level for projecting future exposure over a specific geographical region. The quantile regression approach is motivated by the need to better characterize the tails of future temperature distribution where the greatest health impacts are likely to occur. We applied the methodology to calibrate temperature projections from a regional climate model for the period 2041 to 2050. Accounting for calibration uncertainty, we calculated the number of of excess deaths attributed to future temperature for three cities in the US state of Alabama.

  3. Extreme climatic events in a changing climate: a review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beniston, M.

    2003-04-01

    While changes in the long-term mean state of climate will have many important consequences on numerous environmental, social, and economic sectors, the most significant impacts of climatic change are likely to come about from shifts in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. Indeed, insurance costs resulting from extreme weather events have been steadily increasing over the last two decades, in response to both population pressures in regions that are at risk, but also because of the frequency and severity of certain forms of extremes. Regions now safe from catastrophic wind storms, heat waves, and floods could suddenly become vulnerable. The associated damage costs would consequently be extremely high. It seems appropriate, therefore, considering the environmental, human and economic costs exerted by extreme climatic events, to address the problem of whether there may be significant shifts in extremes of wind, precipitation or temperature in a changing global climate. In order to achieve these goals, the level of current scientific understanding and the availability of computational resources now enable numerical modeling techniques to be applied to this problem area. Examples will be given of particular numerical simulations of extreme events that have affected Western Europe and the alpine region in recent years. These simulations and impacts studies will be compared to observed events and trends during the 20th century, where adequate data is available to assess the manner in which certain forms of extreme events have changed, in part as a response to the global warming observed over the last 100 years.

  4. Challenges in bias correcting climate change simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maraun, Douglas; Shepherd, Ted; Zappa, Giuseppe; Gutierrez, Jose; Widmann, Martin; Hagemann, Stefan; Richter, Ingo; Soares, Pedro; Mearns, Linda

    2016-04-01

    Biases in climate model simulations - if these are directly used as input for impact models - will introduce further biases in subsequent impact simulations. In response to this issue, so-called bias correction methods have been developed to post-process climate model output. These methods are now widely used and a crucial component in the generation of high resolution climate change projections. Bias correction is conceptually similar to model output statistics, which has been successfully used for several decades in numerical weather prediction. Yet in climate science, some authors outrightly dismiss any form of bias correction. Starting from this seeming contradiction, we highlight differences between the two contexts and infer consequences and limitations for the applicability of bias correction to climate change projections. We first show that cross validation approaches successfully used to evaluate weather forecasts are fundamentally insufficient to evaluate climate change bias correction. We further demonstrate that different types of model mismatches with observations require different solutions, and some may not sensibly be mitigated. In particular we consider the influence of large-scale circulation biases, biases in the persistence of weather regimes, and regional biases caused by an insufficient representation of the flow-topography interaction. We conclude with a list of recommendations and suggestions for future research to reduce, to post-process, and to cope with climate model biases.

  5. Global climate change and emerging infectious diseases.

    PubMed

    Patz, J A; Epstein, P R; Burke, T A; Balbus, J M

    1996-01-17

    Climatic factors influence the emergence and reemergence of infectious diseases, in addition to multiple human, biological, and ecological determinants. Climatologists have identified upward trends in global temperatures and now estimate an unprecedented rise of 2.0 degrees C by the year 2100. Of major concern is that these changes can affect the introduction and dissemination of many serious infectious diseases. The incidence of mosquito-borne diseases, including malaria, dengue, and viral encephalitides, are among those diseases most sensitive to climate. Climate change would directly affect disease transmission by shifting the vector's geographic range and increasing reproductive and biting rates and by shortening the pathogen incubation period. Climate-related increases in sea surface temperature and sea level can lead to higher incidence of water-borne infectious and toxin-related illnesses, such as cholera and shellfish poisoning. Human migration and damage to health infrastructures from the projected increase in climate variability could indirectly contribute to disease transmission. Human susceptibility to infections might be further compounded by malnutrition due to climate stress on agriculture and potential alterations in the human immune system caused by increased flux of ultraviolet radiation. Analyzing the role of climate in the emergence of human infectious diseases will require interdisciplinary cooperation among physicians, climatologists, biologists, and social scientists. Increased disease surveillance, integrated modeling, and use of geographically based data systems will afford more anticipatory measures by the medical community. Understanding the linkages between climatological and ecological change as determinants of disease emergence and redistribution will ultimately help optimize preventive strategies.

  6. What Is Climate Change? (Environmental Health Student Portal)

    MedlinePlus

    ... vs Climate Change Global Warming (National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration) - Introduction to global warming with links to greenhouse effect, sea levels, and future climate change. Games and ...

  7. Change in Peninsular Malaysia Water Balances with Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kavvas, L. M.; Chen, Z. Q.; Ohara, N.; Binshaaban, A. J.; M. Amin, M. Z.

    2008-05-01

    The climate change simulations of Coupled Global Climate Model of the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis were downscaled by a Regional Hydroclimate Model of Peninsular Malaysia to the scale of the subregions and watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia in order to assess the impact of future climate change on its water balances. Based on simulations of hydroclimatic conditions during a 10 year historical and 20 year future period it is concluded that the overall mean monthly streamflow is about the same during the future period and during the historical period for most of the watersheds except Kelantan and Pahang. Also, with the change in climate in the future the high flow conditions will be magnified in the largest watersheds in northeast and central regions during the wet months, while low monthly flows will be significantly lower in the west central coastal watersheds during the dry months.

  8. Uncertainty in climate change and drought

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.; Tasker, Gary D.; Ayers, Mark A.; ,

    1991-01-01

    A series of projections of climate change were applied to a watershed model of the Delaware River basin to identify sources of uncertainty in predicting effects of climate change on drought in the basin as defined by New York City reservoir contents. The watershed model is a calibrated, monthly time-step water-balance model that incorporates the operation of reservoirs and diversion canals, and accounts for all inflows to and outflows from the basin at several key nodes. The model assesses the effects of projected climate change on reservoir contents by calculating the frequency with which the basin enters drought conditions under a range of climate-change conditions. Two primary sources of uncertainty that affect predictions of drought frequency in the Delaware River basin were considered: (1) uncertainty in the amount of change in mean air temperature and precipitation, and (2) uncertainty in the effects of natural climate variability on future temperature and precipitation. Model results indicate that changes in drought frequency in the Delaware River basin are highly sensitive to changes in mean precipitation; therefore, the uncertainty associated with predictions of future precipitation has a large effect on the prediction of future drought frequency in the basin.

  9. Climate change, biotic interactions and ecosystem services.

    PubMed

    Montoya, José M; Raffaelli, Dave

    2010-07-12

    Climate change is real. The wrangling debates are over, and we now need to move onto a predictive ecology that will allow managers of landscapes and policy makers to adapt to the likely changes in biodiversity over the coming decades. There is ample evidence that ecological responses are already occurring at the individual species (population) level. The challenge is how to synthesize the growing list of such observations with a coherent body of theory that will enable us to predict where and when changes will occur, what the consequences might be for the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity and what we might do practically in order to maintain those systems in as good condition as possible. It is thus necessary to investigate the effects of climate change at the ecosystem level and to consider novel emergent ecosystems composed of new species assemblages arising from differential rates of range shifts of species. Here, we present current knowledge on the effects of climate change on biotic interactions and ecosystem services supply, and summarize the papers included in this volume. We discuss how resilient ecosystems are in the face of the multiple components that characterize climate change, and suggest which current ecological theories may be used as a starting point to predict ecosystem-level effects of climate change.

  10. Wildfire in Northern Eurasia and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shvidenko, A.; Schepaschenko, D.

    2012-04-01

    The presentation considers dynamics of fire regimes in Northern Eurasia (limited to territories of Russia) and their impacts on ecosystems and major global biogeochemical cycles. Historically, fire regimes in different regions were defined by natural climate variability, previous fire history and the level of direct human impact. The climate specifics over the last three decades in Russia substantially impacted fire extent, frequency and severity. Regular occurrence of mega(catastrophic) fires becomes a distinct feature of current fire regimes. Megafires (e.g., 1998, 2003, 2008, 2010) lead to degradation of ecosystems and the profound depletion of biodiversity, substantial increase of emissions, create special atmospheric and seasonal weather over large areas, cause considerable damage to the economy and infrastructure, as well as adversely affect the living conditions and health of the population in the regions of fire spread. Based on a synthesis of remote sensing and ground data, the total area of wildfire in Russia between 1998-2010 is assessed at 106.9 x 106 ha or 8.23 x 106 ha yr-1, varying from 4.2 (1999) up to 17.3 x 106 ha yr-1 (2003). The uncertainty of the assessment of burnt area was estimated at ± 9%, and direct emissions of carbon at ± 23% (CI 0.9). As a rule, ~90% of the burnt area is located in Asian Russia, mainly in its southern half. About two-thirds (65.1%) of the total burned area is situated on forest land, 18.9% happened on agricultural land, 8.7% - on grass- and shrubland, and 7.3% - on wetland. The total amount of fuel that was consumed between 1998-2010 was assessed at 1.57 x 109 t C, or 121.0 Tg C yr-1. Interannual variability of this value is high - from 50 (2000) up to 231 Tg C yr-1 (2003) depending on fire season type and geographical location of the fire. On average, our results are quite close to estimates given by the GFED3 - the latter are +11.5% by area, and +13.2% by emissions. The majority of carbon emissions were provided by

  11. Climate Change Education for Engineering Undergraduate Students

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dhaniyala, S.; Powers, S.

    2011-12-01

    The outreach and educational component of my NSF-CAREER grant focused on the development of a new undergraduate course on climate change for engineering undergraduate students and development of project-based course modules for middle and high-school students. Engineering students have minimal formal education on climate issues, but are increasingly finding themselves in positions where they have to participate and address climate change and mitigation issues. Towards this end, we developed a new three-credit course, entitled Global Climate Change: Science, Engineering, and Policy. With a focus on engineering students, this course was structured as a highly quantitative course, taught through an inquiry-based pedagogical approach. The students used a combination of historical climate data from ground-stations and satellites and model results of future climate conditions for different scenarios to ascertain for themselves the current extent of climate change and likely future impacts. Students also combined mitigation efforts, concentrated on geoengineering and alternate energy choices, with climate modeling to determine the immediacy of such efforts. The impacts of the course on the students were assessed with a combination of quantitative and qualitative approaches that used pre-post climate literacy and engineering self-efficacy surveys as well as qualitative focus group discussions at the end of the course. I will discuss our undergraduate course development effort and the primary outcomes of the course. I will also briefly describe our k-12 outreach effort on the development of course modules for project-based learning related to air quality and atmospheric science topics.

  12. Thresholds in conservation effectiveness under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, A.; Phillips, L.

    2007-12-01

    We describe a new approach to conservation that derives from the effect of energy on ecosystem properties and then evaluate potential threshold responses of conservation effectiveness under climate change. Many tests of species energy theory provide evidence that species richness varies with measures of energy such as net primary productivity (NPP). Across continents, this relationship is most often unimodal, with species richness peaking in intermediate energy places and decreasing at higher NPP levels. NPP also influences ecosystem response to habitat fragmentation, recovery after disturbance, and trophic relationships. We have developed a topology for conservation whereby conservation priorities and management effectiveness differ among low, intermediate, and high energy ecosystems. We evaluated the projected change in NPP and conservation topology of ecoregions under future climate change scenarios. We found that projected NPP under climate change caused a subset of ecoregions to shift across the peak of the unimodal species energy curve, suggesting dramatic changes in conservation effectiveness are possible.

  13. Anticipated public health consequences of global climate change.

    PubMed

    Longstreth, J

    1991-12-01

    Human activities are placing enormous pressures on the biosphere. The introduction of new chemicals and the increasing ambient levels of existing chemicals have resulted in atmospheric degradation. This paper reviews some of the adverse effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. Because the atmospheric effects of ozone depletion are fairly well characterized, quantitative risk estimates have been developed. However, because the atmospheric effects of global warming are less understood, public health problems that could be intensified by climate change are assessed qualitatively. The interactive effects of these two phenomena are also discussed.

  14. Anticipated public health consequences of global climate change.

    PubMed Central

    Longstreth, J

    1991-01-01

    Human activities are placing enormous pressures on the biosphere. The introduction of new chemicals and the increasing ambient levels of existing chemicals have resulted in atmospheric degradation. This paper reviews some of the adverse effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. Because the atmospheric effects of ozone depletion are fairly well characterized, quantitative risk estimates have been developed. However, because the atmospheric effects of global warming are less understood, public health problems that could be intensified by climate change are assessed qualitatively. The interactive effects of these two phenomena are also discussed. PMID:1820256

  15. Climate Change in Voyageurs National Park

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seeley, M. W.

    2011-12-01

    Voyageurs National Park was created in 1975. This beautifully forested and lake-dominated landscape shared between Minnesota and Canada has few roads and must be seen by water. The islands and Kabetogama Peninsula are part of the Canadian Shield, some of the oldest exposed rock in the world. Voyageurs National Park boasts many unique landscape and climatic attributes, and like most mid-latitude regions of the northern hemisphere climate change is in play there. The statistical signals of change in the climate record are evident from both temperature and precipitation measurements. The history of these measurements goes back over 100 years. Additionally, studies and measurements of the lakes and general ecosystem already show some consequences of these climate changes. Mean temperature measurements are generally warmer than they once were, most notably in the winter season. Minimum temperatures have changed more than maximum temperatures. Precipitation has trended upward, but has also changed in character with greater frequency and contribution from thunderstorm rainfalls across the park. In addition variability in annual precipitation has become more amplified, as the disparity between wet and dry years has grown wider. Some changes are already in evidence in terms of bird migration patterns, earlier lake ice-out dates, warmer water temperatures with more algal blooms, decline in lake clarity, and somewhat longer frost-free seasons. Climate change will continue to have impacts on Voyageurs National Park, and likely other national parks across the nation. Furthermore scientists may find that the study, presentation, and discussion about climate impacts on our national parks is a particularly engaging way to educate citizens and improve climate literacy as we contemplate what adaptation and mitigation policies should be enacted to preserve the quality of our national parks for future generations.

  16. Blanket peat biome endangered by climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gallego-Sala, Angela V.; Colin Prentice, I.

    2013-02-01

    Blanket bog is a highly distinctive biome restricted to disjunct hyperoceanic regions. It is characterized by a landscape covering of peat broken only by the steepest slopes. Plant and microbial life are adapted to anoxia, low pH and low nutrient availability. Plant productivity exceeds soil organic matter decomposition, so carbon is sequestered over time. Unique climatic requirements, including high year-round rainfall and low summer temperatures, make this biome amenable to bioclimatic modelling. However, projections of the fate of peatlands in general, and blanket bogs in particular, under climate change have been contradictory. Here we use a simple, well-founded global bioclimatic model, with climate-change projections from seven climate models, to indicate this biome's fate. We show marked shrinkage of its present bioclimatic space with only a few, restricted areas of persistence. Many blanket bog regions are thus at risk of progressive peat erosion and vegetation changes as a direct consequence of climate change. New areas suitable for blanket bog are also projected, but these are often disjunct from present areas and their location is inconsistently predicted by different climate models.

  17. Incorporating climate change into systematic conservation planning

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Groves, Craig R.; Game, Edward T.; Anderson, Mark G.; Cross, Molly; Enquist, Carolyn; Ferdana, Zach; Girvetz, Evan; Gondor, Anne; Hall, Kimberly R.; Higgins, Jonathan; Marshall, Rob; Popper, Ken; Schill, Steve; Shafer, Sarah L.

    2012-01-01

    The principles of systematic conservation planning are now widely used by governments and non-government organizations alike to develop biodiversity conservation plans for countries, states, regions, and ecoregions. Many of the species and ecosystems these plans were designed to conserve are now being affected by climate change, and there is a critical need to incorporate new and complementary approaches into these plans that will aid species and ecosystems in adjusting to potential climate change impacts. We propose five approaches to climate change adaptation that can be integrated into existing or new biodiversity conservation plans: (1) conserving the geophysical stage, (2) protecting climatic refugia, (3) enhancing regional connectivity, (4) sustaining ecosystem process and function, and (5) capitalizing on opportunities emerging in response to climate change. We discuss both key assumptions behind each approach and the trade-offs involved in using the approach for conservation planning. We also summarize additional data beyond those typically used in systematic conservation plans required to implement these approaches. A major strength of these approaches is that they are largely robust to the uncertainty in how climate impacts may manifest in any given region.

  18. Global fish production and climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Brander, K.M.

    2007-12-11

    Current global fisheries production of {approx}160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but there is low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are giverned by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipiation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the pricipal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change.

  19. Projected Climate Change Impacts on Pennsylvania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Najjar, R.; Shortle, J.; Abler, D.; Blumsack, S.; Crane, R.; Kaufman, Z.; McDill, M.; Ready, R.; Rydzik, M.; Wagener, T.; Wardrop, D.; Wilson, T.

    2009-05-01

    We present an assessment of the potential impacts of human-induced climate change on the commonwealth of Pennsylvania, U.S.A. We first assess a suite of 21 global climate models for the state, rating them based on their ability to simulate the climate of Pennsylvania on time scales ranging from submonthly to interannual. The multi-model mean is superior to any individual model. Median projections by late century are 2-4 degrees C warming and 5-10 percent precipitation increases (B1 and A2 scenarios), with larger precipitation increases in winter and spring. Impacts on the commonwealth's aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, water resources, agriculture, forests, energy, outdoor recreation, tourism, and human health, are evaluated. We also examine barriers and opportunities for Pennsylvania created by climate change mitigation. This assessment was sponsored by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection which, pursuant to the Pennsylvania Climate Change Act, Act 70 of 2008, is required to develop a report on the potential scientific and economic impacts of climate change to Pennsylvania.

  20. Plateau uplift and climatic change

    SciTech Connect

    Ruddiman, W.F. ); Kutzbach, J.E. )

    1991-03-01

    The earth of 40 million years ago was a warm, wet place. Forests abounded; grasslands and deserts were rare. Then the planet began to cool. Regional climate extremes developed. Many causes have been postulated, including continental drift and diminishing atmospheric carbon dioxide. The authors offer a new theory: continental uplift created huge plateaus that altered circulation of the atmosphere. The two largest masses of high, rocky terrain in the Northern Hemisphere today are the area encompassing the Tibetan Plateau and Himalaya Mountains and the broad region of the American West centered on the Colorado Plateau. Geologic evidence indicates that these regions rose substantially during the past 40 million years. The authors focused their research on these plateaus.

  1. Can ice sheets trigger abrupt climatic change?

    SciTech Connect

    Hughes, T.

    1996-11-01

    The discovery in recent years of abrupt climatic changes in climate proxy records from Greenland ice cores and North Atlantic sediment cores, and from other sites around the world, has diverted attention from gradual insolation changes caused by Earth`s orbital variations to more rapid processes on Earth`s surface as forcing Quaternary climatic change. In particular, forcing by ice sheets has been quantified for a major ice stream that drained the Laurentide Ice Sheet along Hudson Strait. The history of these recent discoveries leading to an interest in ice sheets is reviewed, and a case is made that ice sheets may drive abrupt climatic change that is virtually synchronous worldwide. Attention is focused on abrupt inception and termination of a Quaternary glaciation cycle, abrupt changes recorded as stadials and interstadials within the cycle, abrupt changes in ice streams that trigger stadials and interstadials, and abrupt changes in the Laurentide Ice Sheet linked to effectively simultaneous abrupt changes in its ice streams. Remaining work needed to quantify further these changes is discussed. 90 refs., 14 figs.

  2. Will Climate Change Increase Transatlantic Aviation Turbulence?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, P. D.; Joshi, M. M.

    2013-12-01

    Atmospheric turbulence causes most weather-related aircraft incidents. Commercial aircraft encounter moderate-or-greater turbulence tens of thousands of times each year world-wide, injuring probably hundreds of passengers (occasionally fatally), costing airlines tens of millions of dollars, and causing structural damage to planes. Clear-air turbulence is especially difficult to avoid, because it cannot be seen by pilots or detected by satellites or on-board radar. Clear-air turbulence is linked to atmospheric storm tracks and jet streams, which are projected to be strengthened by anthropogenic climate change. However, the response of clear-air turbulence to climate change has not previously been studied. Here we show using computer simulations that clear-air turbulence changes significantly within the transatlantic flight corridor when the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is doubled. At cruise altitudes within 50-75°N and 10-60°W in winter, most clear-air turbulence measures show a 10-40% increase in the median strength of turbulence and a 40-170% increase in the frequency of occurrence of moderate-or-greater turbulence. Our results suggest that climate change will lead to bumpier transatlantic flights by the middle of this century. Journey times may lengthen and fuel consumption and emissions may increase. Aviation is partly responsible for changing the climate, but our findings show for the first time how climate change could affect aviation.

  3. Will climate change increase transatlantic aviation turbulence?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Paul; Joshi, Manoj

    2013-04-01

    Atmospheric turbulence causes most weather-related aircraft incidents. Commercial aircraft encounter moderate-or-greater turbulence tens of thousands of times each year world-wide, injuring probably hundreds of passengers (occasionally fatally), costing airlines tens of millions of dollars, and causing structural damage to planes. Clear-air turbulence is especially difficult to avoid, because it cannot be seen by pilots or detected by satellites or on-board radar. Clear-air turbulence is linked to atmospheric jet streams, which are projected to be strengthened by anthropogenic climate change. However, the response of clear-air turbulence to climate change has not previously been studied. Here we show using computer simulations that clear-air turbulence changes significantly within the transatlantic flight corridor when the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is doubled. At cruise altitudes within 50-75°N and 10-60°W in winter, most clear-air turbulence measures show a 10-40% increase in the median strength of turbulence and a 40-170% increase in the frequency of occurrence of moderate-or-greater turbulence. Our results suggest that climate change will lead to bumpier transatlantic flights by the middle of this century. Journey times may lengthen and fuel consumption and emissions may increase. Aviation is partly responsible for changing the climate, but our findings show for the first time how climate change could affect aviation.

  4. Shifting seasons, climate change and ecosystem consequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thackeray, Stephen; Henrys, Peter; Hemming, Deborah; Huntingford, Chris; Bell, James; Leech, David; Wanless, Sarah

    2014-05-01

    In recent decades, the seasonal timing of many biological events (e.g. flowering, breeding, migration) has shifted. These phenological changes are believed to be one of the most conspicuous biological indicators of climate change. Rates and directions of phenological change have differed markedly among species, potentially threatening the seasonal synchrony of key species interactions and ultimately ecosystem functioning. Differences in phenological change among-species at different trophic levels, and with respect to other broad species traits, are likely to be driven by variations in the climatic sensitivity of phenological events. However, as yet, inconsistencies in analytical methods have hampered broad-scale assessments of variation in climate sensitivity among taxonomic and functional groups of organisms. In this presentation, results will be presented from a current collaborative project (http://www.ceh.ac.uk/sci_programmes/shifting-seasons-uk.html) in which many UK long-term data sets are being integrated in order to assess relationships between temperature/precipitation, and the timing of seasonal events for a wide range of plants and animals. Our aim is to assess which organism groups (in which locations/habitats) are most sensitive to climate. Furthermore, the role of anthropogenic climate change as a driver of phenological change is being assessed.

  5. Portfolio conservation of metapopulations under climate change.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Sean C; Moore, Jonathan W; McClure, Michelle M; Dulvy, Nicholas K; Cooper, Andrew B

    2015-03-01

    Climate change is likely to lead to increasing population variability and extinction risk. Theoretically, greater population diversity should buffer against rising climate variability, and this theory is often invoked as a reason for greater conservation. However, this has rarely been quantified. Here we show how a portfolio approach to managing population diversity can inform metapopulation conservation priorities in a changing world. We develop a salmon metapopulation model in which productivity is driven by spatially distributed thermal tolerance and patterns of short- and long-term climate change. We then implement spatial conservation scenarios that control population carrying capacities and evaluate the metapopulation portfolios as a financial manager might: along axes of conservation risk and return. We show that preserving a diversity of thermal tolerances minimizes risk, given environmental stochasticity, and ensures persistence, given long-term environmental change. When the thermal tolerances of populations are unknown, doubling the number of populations conserved may nearly halve expected metapopulation variability. However, this reduction in variability can come at the expense of long-term persistence if climate change increasingly restricts available habitat, forcing ecological managers to balance society's desire for short-term stability and long-term viability. Our findings suggest the importance of conserving the processes that promote thermal-tolerance diversity, such as genetic diversity, habitat heterogeneity, and natural disturbance regimes, and demonstrate that diverse natural portfolios may be critical for metapopulation conservation in the face of increasing climate variability and change.

  6. Climate change on arctic environment, ecosystem services and society (CLICHE)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weckström, J.; Korhola, A.; Väliranta, M.; Seppä, H.; Luoto, M.; Tuittila, E.-S.; Leppäranta, M.; Kahilainen, K.; Saarinen, J.; Heikkinen, H.

    2012-04-01

    The predicted climate warming has raised many questions and concerns about its impacts on the environment and society. As a respond to the need of holistic studies comprising both of these areas, The Academy of Finland launched The Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (FICCA 2011-2014) in spring 2010 with the main aim to focus on the interaction between the environment and society. Ultimately 11 national consortium projects were funded (total budget 12 million EUR). Here we shortly present the main objectives of the largest consortium project "Climate change on arctic environment, ecosystem services and society" (CLICHE). The CLICHE consortium comprises eight interrelated work packages (treeline, diversity, peatlands, snow, lakes, fish, tourism, and traditional livelihoods), each led by a prominent research group and a team leader. The research consortium has three main overall objectives: 1) Investigate, map and model the past, present and future climate change-induced changes in central ecosystems of the European Arctic with unprecedented precision 2) Deepen our understanding of the basic principles of ecosystem and social resilience and dynamics; identify key taxa, structures or processes that clearly indicate impending or realised global change through their loss, occurrence or behaviour, using analogues from the past (e.g. Holocene Thermal Maximum, Medieval Warm Period), experiments, observations and models 3) Develop adaptation and mitigation strategies to minimize the adverse effects of climate change on local communities, traditional livelihoods, fisheries, and tourism industry, and promote sustainable development of local community structures and enhance the quality of life of local human populations. As the project has started only recently no final results are available yet. However, the fieldwork as well as the co-operation between the research teams has thus far been very successful. Thus, the expectations for the final outcome of the project

  7. AO/NAO Response to Climate Change. 1; Respective Influences of Stratospheric and Tropospheric Climate Changes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rind, D.; Perlwitz, J.; Lonergan, P.

    2005-01-01

    We utilize the GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model and 8 different climate change experiments, many of them focused on stratospheric climate forcings, to assess the relative influence of tropospheric and stratospheric climate change on the extratropical circulation indices (Arctic Oscillation, AO; North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO). The experiments are run in two different ways: with variable sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to allow for a full tropospheric climate response, and with specified SSTs to minimize the tropospheric change. The results show that tropospheric warming (cooling) experiments and stratospheric cooling (warming) experiments produce more positive (negative) AO/NAO indices. For the typical magnitudes of tropospheric and stratospheric climate changes, the tropospheric response dominates; results are strongest when the tropospheric and stratospheric influences are producing similar phase changes. Both regions produce their effect primarily by altering wave propagation and angular momentum transports, but planetary wave energy changes accompanying tropospheric climate change are also important. Stratospheric forcing has a larger impact on the NAO than on the AO, and the angular momentum transport changes associated with it peak in the upper troposphere, affecting all wavenumbers. Tropospheric climate changes influence both the A0 and NAO with effects that extend throughout the troposphere. For both forcings there is often vertical consistency in the sign of the momentum transport changes, obscuring the difference between direct and indirect mechanisms for influencing the surface circulation.

  8. Effect of climate change on marine ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vikebo, F. B.; Sundby, S.; Aadlandsvik, B.; Fiksen, O.

    2003-04-01

    As a part of the INTEGRATION project, headed by Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, funded by the German Research Council, the impact of climate change scenarios on marine fish populations will be addressed on a spesific population basis and will focus on fish populations in the northern North Atlantic with special emphasis on cod. The approach taken will mainly be a modelling study supported by analysis of existing data on fish stocks and climate. Through down-scaling and nesting techniques, various climate change scenarios with reduced THC in the North Atlantic will be investigated with higher spatial resolution for selected shelf areas. The hydrodynamical model used for the regional ocean modeling is ROMS (http://marine.rutgers.edu/po/models/roms/). An individual based model will be implemented into the larval drift module to simulate growth of the larvae along the drift paths.

  9. Geodynamic contributions to global climatic change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bills, Bruce G.

    1992-01-01

    Orbital and rotational variations perturb the latitudinal and seasonal pattern of incident solar radiation, producing major climatic change on time scales of 10(exp 4)-10(exp 6) years. The orbital variations are oblivious to internal structure and processes, but the rotational variations are not. A program of investigation whose objective would be to explore and quantify three aspects of orbital, rotational, and climatic interactions is described. An important premise of this investigation is the synergism between geodynamics and paleoclimate. Better geophysical models of precessional dynamics are needed in order to accurately reconstruct the radiative input to climate models. Some of the paleoclimate proxy records contain information relevant to solid Earth processes, on time scales which are difficult to constrain otherwise. Specific mechanisms which will be addressed include: (1) climatic consequences of deglacial polar motion; and (2) precessional and climatic consequences of glacially induced perturbations in the gravitational oblateness and partial decoupling of the mantle and core. The approach entails constructing theoretical models of the rotational, deformational, radiative, and climatic response of the Earth to known orbital perturbations, and comparing these with extensive records of paleoclimate proxy data. Several of the mechanisms of interest may participate in previously unrecognized feed-back loops in the climate dynamics system. A new algorithm for estimating climatically diagnostic locations and seasons from the paleoclimate time series is proposed.

  10. Effects of climate changes on skin diseases.

    PubMed

    Balato, Nicola; Megna, Matteo; Ayala, Fabio; Balato, Anna; Napolitano, Maddalena; Patruno, Cataldo

    2014-02-01

    Global climate is changing at an extraordinary rate. Climate change (CC) can be caused by several factors including variations in solar radiation, oceanic processes, and also human activities. The degree of this change and its impact on ecological, social, and economical systems have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing CC as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Moreover, studies based on observations and predictive models show how CC could affect human health. On the other hand, only a few studies focus on how this change may affect human skin. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, it is not surprising that cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. The current review focuses on the effects of CC on skin diseases showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence, clinical pattern and natural course of some dermatoses. PMID:24404995

  11. Global climate change and international security.

    SciTech Connect

    Karas, Thomas H.

    2003-11-01

    This report originates in a workshop held at Sandia National Laboratories, bringing together a variety of external experts with Sandia personnel to discuss 'The Implications of Global Climate Change for International Security.' Whatever the future of the current global warming trend, paleoclimatic history shows that climate change happens, sometimes abruptly. These changes can severely impact human water supplies, agriculture, migration patterns, infrastructure, financial flows, disease prevalence, and economic activity. Those impacts, in turn, can lead to national or international security problems stemming from aggravation of internal conflicts, increased poverty and inequality, exacerbation of existing international conflicts, diversion of national and international resources from international security programs (military or non-military), contribution to global economic decline or collapse, or international realignments based on climate change mitigation policies. After reviewing these potential problems, the report concludes with a brief listing of some research, technology, and policy measures that might mitigate them.

  12. Mars - Epochal climate change and volatile history

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fanale, Fraser P.; Postawko, Susan E.; Pollack, James B.; Carr, Michael H.; Pepin, Robert O.

    1992-01-01

    The epochal climate change and volatile history of Mars are examined, with special attention given to evidence for and mechanisms of long-term climate change. Long-term climate change on Mars is indicated most directly by the presence, age, and distribution of the valley networks. They were almost certainly formed by running water, but it seems more likely that they were formed by groundwater sapping than by rainfall. It is argued to be physically plausible that a higher early intensity of surface insolation caused by a CO2 greenhouse effect could have overcompensated for an early weak sun and raised temperatures to the freezing point near the equator under favorable conditions of obliquity and eccentricity. This could account for the morphological changes.

  13. [Climate change and health in the Netherlands].

    PubMed

    Huynen, Maud M T E; van Vliet, Arnold J H

    2009-01-01

    Climate change possibly affects public health in the Netherlands, including changes in (a) temperature-related effects, heat stress and air pollution, (b) allergies, (c) vector borne infectious disease, and (d) food- and waterborne infectious disease. Due to many prevailing uncertainties, opinions differ regarding the exact size of the expected health risks and the speed at which these might occur, as well as regarding to what degree society would need to or could adapt to these potential health effects. Thus, the gaps in our knowledge are substantial. Scientists and experts are clearly concerned about the limited amount of attention being paid to health effects of climate change in the Netherlands. In response, a proposal for a research programme 'Klimaatverandering en Gezondheid' ('Climate change and health') has been developed over the past year.

  14. Challenges of climate change: an Arctic perspective.

    PubMed

    Corell, Robert W

    2006-06-01

    Climate change is being experienced particularly intensely in the Arctic. Arctic average temperature has risen at almost twice the rate as that of the rest of the world in the past few decades. Widespread melting of glaciers and sea ice and rising permafrost temperatures present additional evidence of strong Arctic warming. These changes in the Arctic provide an early indication of the environmental and societal significance of global consequences. The Arctic also provides important natural resources to the rest of the world (such as oil, gas, and fish) that will be affected by climate change, and the melting of Arctic glaciers is one of the factors contributing to sea level rise around the globe. An acceleration of these climatic trends is projected to occur during this century, due to ongoing increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere. These Arctic changes will, in turn, impact the planet as a whole.

  15. Foreword: Mediterranean diet and climatic change.

    PubMed

    Serra-Majem, Lluís; Bach-Faig, Anna; Miranda, Gemma; Clapes-Badrinas, Carmen

    2011-12-01

    Changes in diet, reducing animal products and increasing consumption of vegetables can not only benefit human health and the overall use of land, but can also play a decisive role in the politics of climate change mitigation. In this sense, the Mediterranean diet (MD) is presented as a sustainable cultural model, respectful of the environment, whose adherence in Mediterranean countries should contribute to mitigating climate change. The recognition of the MD as an Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity by UNESCO in 2010 obliges the Mediterranean Diet Foundation to continue waging this recovery process and to promote our ancient food traditions in a prism of sustainability and commitment to the environment.

  16. Climate change signal over Northern Adriatic Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zampieri, M.; Lionello, P.; Nikulin, G.

    2009-04-01

    In this study we collect the results of several regional climate models from various projects (PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES, and others). Temperature, precipitation, Sea Level Pressure, 500hPa geopotential height and wind speed are analyzed for Venetia and the Northern Adriatic region. The agreement among models is analyzed for the control runs and for the scenario simulations, and the dispersion among models is evaluated. The importance of resolutions is addressed as well as the changes of climate extremes in future scenarios.

  17. AGU Scientists Testify at Climate Change Hearing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Folger, Peter

    2006-09-01

    AGU recently helped the U.S. House of RepresentativesCommittee on Government Reform to organize the hearing by suggestingpotential witnesses and outlining potentialtopics to explore, such as the global carboncycle, rapid climate change, climate feedbackprocesses, and satellite measurements. Climatechange falls within the committee'sbroader interest in the federal government'sprograms on energy and resources. Four AGUmembers testified at a 20 July hearing.

  18. Approaching the Edge of Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramadhin, C.; Yi, C.

    2015-12-01

    The phenomenon of Abrupt Climate Change (ACC) became evident as paleoclimate data analyses began revealing that Earth's climate has the ability to rapidly switch from one state to the next in just a few decades after thresholds are crossed. Previously paleo-climatologists thought these switches were gradual but now there is growing concern to identify thresholds and the dominant feedback mechanisms that propel systems toward thresholds. Current human civilization relies heavily on climate stability and ACC threatens immense disruption with potentially disastrous consequences for all ecosystems. Therefore, prediction of the climate system's approach to threshold values would prove vital for the resilience of civilization through development of appropriate adaptation strategies when that shift occurs. Numerous studies now establish that earth systems are experiencing dramatic changes both by system interactions and anthropogenic sources adding urgency for comprehensive knowledge of tipping point identification. Despite this, predictions are difficult due to the immensity of interactions among feedback mechanisms. In this paper, we attempt to narrow this broad spectrum of critical feedback mechanisms by reviewing several publications on role of feedbacks in initiating past climate transitions establishing the most critical ones and significance in current climate changes. Using a compilation of paleoclimate datasets we compared the rates of deglaciations with that of glacial inceptions, which are approximately 5-10 times slower. We hypothesize that the critical feedbacks are unique to each type of transition such that warmings are dominated by the ice-albedo feedback while coolings are a combination of temperature - CO2 and temperature-precipitation followed by the ice-albedo feedbacks. Additionally, we propose the existence of a commonality in the dominant trigger feedbacks for astronomical and millennial timescale abrupt climate shifts and as such future studies

  19. Global lightning activity and climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Price, C.G.

    1993-12-31

    The relationship between global lightning frequencies and global climate change is examined in this thesis. In order to study global impacts of climate change, global climate models or General Circulations Models (GCMs) need to be utilized. Since these models have coarse resolutions many atmospheric phenomena that occur at subgrid scales, such as lightning, need to be parameterized whenever possible. We begin with a simple parameterization used to Simulate total (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) lightning frequencies. The parameterization uses convective cloud top height to approximate lightning frequencies. Then we consider a parameterization for simulating cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning around the globe. This parameterization uses the thickness of the cold cloud sector in thunderstorms (0{degrees}C to cloud top) to calculate the proportion of CG flashes in a particular thunderstorm. We model lightning in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. We present two climate change scenarios. One for a climate where the solar constant is reduced by 2% (5.9{degrees}C global cooling), and one for a climate with twice the present concentration of CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere (4.2{degrees}C global warming). The results imply a 24%/30% decrease/increase in global lightning frequencies for the cooler/warmer climate. The possibility of using the above findings to monitor future global warming is discussed. The earth`s ionospheric potential, which is regulated by global thunderstorm activity, could supply valuable information regarding global surface temperature fluctuations. Finally, we look at the implications of changes in both lightning frequencies and the hydrological cycle, as a result of global warming, on natural forest fires. In the U.S. the annual mean number of lightning fires could increase by 40% while the area burned may increase by 65% in a 2{times}CO{sub 2} climate. On a global scale the largest increase in lightning fires can be expected in the tropics.

  20. Climate Change Research in View of Bibliometrics.

    PubMed

    Haunschild, Robin; Bornmann, Lutz; Marx, Werner

    2016-01-01

    This bibliometric study of a large publication set dealing with research on climate change aims at mapping the relevant literature from a bibliometric perspective and presents a multitude of quantitative data: (1) The growth of the overall publication output as well as (2) of some major subfields, (3) the contributing journals and countries as well as their citation impact, and (4) a title word analysis aiming to illustrate the time evolution and relative importance of specific research topics. The study is based on 222,060 papers (articles and reviews only) published between 1980 and 2014. The total number of papers shows a strong increase with a doubling every 5-6 years. Continental biomass related research is the major subfield, closely followed by climate modeling. Research dealing with adaptation, mitigation, risks, and vulnerability of global warming is comparatively small, but their share of papers increased exponentially since 2005. Research on vulnerability and on adaptation published the largest proportion of very important papers (in terms of citation impact). Climate change research has become an issue also for disciplines beyond the natural sciences. The categories Engineering and Social Sciences show the strongest field-specific relative increase. The Journal of Geophysical Research, the Journal of Climate, the Geophysical Research Letters, and Climatic Change appear at the top positions in terms of the total number of papers published. Research on climate change is quantitatively dominated by the USA, followed by the UK, Germany, and Canada. The citation-based indicators exhibit consistently that the UK has produced the largest proportion of high impact papers compared to the other countries (having published more than 10,000 papers). Also, Switzerland, Denmark and also The Netherlands (with a publication output between around 3,000 and 6,000 papers) perform top-the impact of their contributions is on a high level. The title word analysis shows that