Science.gov

Sample records for adverse climatic conditions

  1. Potential Climate Change Health Risks from Increases in Heat Waves: Abnormal Birth Outcomes and Adverse Maternal Health Conditions.

    PubMed

    Cil, Gulcan; Cameron, Trudy Ann

    2017-02-23

    We investigate the risks presented by heat waves for adverse health conditions for babies and expectant mothers when these mothers have been exposed to heat waves during gestation or during the period just prior to conception. Rather than just birth weight and gestational age, we focus on less common metrics such as abnormal conditions in the newborn (fetal distress, reliance on a ventilator, and meconium aspiration) and adverse health conditions in the mother (pregnancy-related hypertension, uterine bleeding during pregnancy, eclampsia, and incompetent cervix). We use monthly panel data for over 3,000 U.S. counties, constructed from the confidential version of the U.S. Natality Files for 1989-2008. Our models control for sociodemographic factors and include county, month, and state-by-year fixed effects to control for unobserved spatial and timewise heterogeneity in the data. Even within the United States, where there is widespread access to air conditioning, heat waves increase the fraction of babies with abnormal conditions related to maternal stress, as well as the fraction of mothers who experience pregnancy-related adverse health conditions. The scope for these risks in developing countries is likely to be even greater.

  2. Climate conditions in bedded confinement buildings

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Confinement buildings are utilized for finishing cattle to allow more efficient collection of animal waste and to buffer animals against adverse climatic conditions. Environmental data were obtained from a 29 m wide x 318 m long bedded confinement building with the long axis oriented east to west. T...

  3. Developing robust crop plants for sustaining growth and yield under adverse climatic changes

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Agricultural production and quality are expected to suffer from adverse changes in climatic conditions, including global warming, and this will affect worldwide human and animal food security. Global warming has been shown to negatively impact crop yield and therefore will affect sustainability of a...

  4. Modelling speech intelligibility in adverse conditions.

    PubMed

    Jørgensen, Søren; Dau, Torsten

    2013-01-01

    Jørgensen and Dau (J Acoust Soc Am 130:1475-1487, 2011) proposed the speech-based envelope power spectrum model (sEPSM) in an attempt to overcome the limitations of the classical speech transmission index (STI) and speech intelligibility index (SII) in conditions with nonlinearly processed speech. Instead of considering the reduction of the temporal modulation energy as the intelligibility metric, as assumed in the STI, the sEPSM applies the signal-to-noise ratio in the envelope domain (SNRenv). This metric was shown to be the key for predicting the intelligibility of reverberant speech as well as noisy speech processed by spectral subtraction. The key role of the SNRenv metric is further supported here by the ability of a short-term version of the sEPSM to predict speech masking release for different speech materials and modulated interferers. However, the sEPSM cannot account for speech subjected to phase jitter, a condition in which the spectral structure of the intelligibility of speech signal is strongly affected, while the broadband temporal envelope is kept largely intact. In contrast, the effects of this distortion can be predicted -successfully by the spectro-temporal modulation index (STMI) (Elhilali et al., Speech Commun 41:331-348, 2003), which assumes an explicit analysis of the spectral "ripple" structure of the speech signal. However, since the STMI applies the same decision metric as the STI, it fails to account for spectral subtraction. The results from this study suggest that the SNRenv might reflect a powerful decision metric, while some explicit across-frequency analysis seems crucial in some conditions. How such across-frequency analysis is "realized" in the auditory system remains unresolved.

  5. HEPA Filter Performance under Adverse Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Parsons, Michael; Hogancamp, Kristina; Alderman, Steven; Waggoner, Charles

    2007-07-01

    This study involved challenging nuclear grade high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters under a variety of conditions that can arise in Department of Energy (DOE) applications such as: low or high RH, controlled and uncontrolled challenge, and filters with physically damaged media or seals (i.e., leaks). Reported findings correlate filter function as measured by traditional differential pressure techniques in comparison with simultaneous instrumental determination of up and down stream PM concentrations. Additionally, emission rates and failure signatures will be discussed for filters that have either failed or exceeded their usable lifetime. Significant findings from this effort include the use of thermocouples up and down stream of the filter housing to detect the presence of moisture. Also demonstrated in the moisture challenge series of tests is the effect of repeated wetting of the filter. This produces a phenomenon referred to as transient failure before the tensile strength of the media weakens to the point of physical failure. An evaluation of the effect of particle size distribution of the challenge aerosol on loading capacity of filters is also included. Results for soot and two size distributions of KCl are reported. Loading capacities for filters ranged from approximately 70 g of soot to nearly 900 g for the larger particle size distribution of KCl. (authors)

  6. Flight data recovery under adverse conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenbauer, E. J.

    1981-11-01

    Methods for overcoming data loss, including bit dump, bit shift, forward and reverse readout, time displacement compensation (TDC), wideband TDC, and supersynchronization are discussed. Supersynchronization systems recognize acquisition of any one sync word as an in-sync condition and process accordingly. They open a window prior to the end of the subframe which enables the circuit to look for the next sync work up to 8 bits early. A feedback loop enables one shot timing methods to track the average bit rate automatically. A time duration equal to 70.7% of the average bit period is recommended. A digital bit averaging technique, in which the bit decision time is determined by the average of the two previous bits, gives excellent results. With forward and reverse processing, data are processed in the usual way through the engineering conversion process. Valid data, prior to the out of sync area, look normal. The computer then goes to the end of the subframe and processes data from this point backwards toward the sync loss area.

  7. Management of Cattle Exposed to Adverse Environmental Conditions.

    PubMed

    Mader, Terry L; Griffin, Dee

    2015-07-01

    During periods of adverse weather, optimum conditions for animal comfort and performance are compromised. Use of alternative supplementation programs need to be considered for livestock challenged by adverse environmental conditions. Use of additional water for consumption and cooling, shade, and/or alternative management strategies need to be considered to help livestock cope with heat stress. For animals reared outside during winter, strategies that increase animal space and environmental buffers need to be used to minimize effects of mud, wet conditions, and windchill. There are ample opportunities for livestock producers to enhance animal welfare and minimize the impact of environmental stress.

  8. Word Learning under Adverse Listening Conditions: Context-Specific Recognition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Creel, Sarah C.; Aslin, Richard N.; Tanenhaus, Michael K.

    2012-01-01

    Previous studies of word learning have presented the items to listeners under ideal conditions. Here we ask how listeners learn new vocabulary items under adverse listening conditions. Would listeners form acoustically-specific representations that incorporated the noise, base their representations on noise-free language knowledge, or both? To…

  9. Quality of whey powders stored under adverse conditions

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Whey protein concentrate powder (WPC) is exported by the U.S. and is included in emergency aid foods, but the bags sent overseas are usually stored without refrigeration and under elevated temperature and relative humidity (RH). The shelf life of WPC under adverse conditions must be known to preven...

  10. Extinction of CO2 Laser Radiation Under Adverse Weather Conditions

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-06-01

    81-1280 B0 91,a 4 TITLE (and Subtitle) S TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOD COVERED EXTINCTION OF CO2 LASER RADIATION UNDER FINAL Oct 78 Oct 81 ADVERSE WEATHER...CONDITIONS 6 PERFORMING O0G r_ r NUMBER 7. AUTHOR( s ) 8 CONTRACT OR GRANT NUMBER( s ) Dr. Vincent Chimelis ŝ PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS 10...number) Laser Propagation Rain Laser Extinction CO2 Lasers Adverse Weather Aerosol s - 20 RACT (Continue on reverse side If necessary and Identify by

  11. Mitigating the Adverse Association of Transportation and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snow, M. M.; Snow, R. K.

    2008-05-01

    The transportation sector consumes more than two-thirds of oil supplies in the U.S. each year and accounts for approximately one-third of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions. A draft of the Fourth U.S. Climate Action Report states that the current U.S. climate policy will culminate in the emission of 9.2 billion tons of greenhouse gases in 2020, which represents a 19 percent increase from 2000 levels. These higher levels of greenhouse gases contribute to rising temperatures while causing numerous transportation problems as abnormally hot days become more frequent and extreme. Asphalt roadways are subjected to softening while concrete highways undergo joint buckling creating hazardous conditions for motorists. Railroads tend to warp and buckle during significant heat events sometimes causing train derailments. Airports experiencing extreme temperatures are more likely to undergo high-density altitude conditions, which affect aircraft engine performance causing reduced lift, longer takeoff rolls, and runway closures. Increasing temperatures also have numerous indirect impacts on transportation and the associated infrastructure. Sea levels are projected to continue rising at an accelerated pace accompanied by higher storm surges and flooding. Consequently, seaports along with the connecting roadway and railway facilities will likely be inundated. Likewise, airports located along coasts are at risk of diminished operations due to rising waters and might require expensive protection measures in the near future. In light of such impacts and the finite supply of oil, myriad players in the transportation industry are researching conservation measures and alternative energy as well as the development of infrastructure and attitudes that promote emission reductions. This research examines a variety of practical and feasible solutions to decreasing greenhouse gases within the transportation sector based on the notion that as a result, new jobs would be created, billions of dollars

  12. Adverse health effects of high-effort/low-reward conditions.

    PubMed

    Siegrist, J

    1996-01-01

    In addition to the person-environment fit model (J. R. French, R. D. Caplan, & R. V. Harrison, 1982) and the demand-control model (R. A. Karasek & T. Theorell, 1990), a third theoretical concept is proposed to assess adverse health effects of stressful experience at work: the effort-reward imbalance model. The focus of this model is on reciprocity of exchange in occupational life where high-cost/low-gain conditions are considered particularly stressful. Variables measuring low reward in terms of low status control (e.g., lack of promotion prospects, job insecurity) in association with high extrinsic (e.g., work pressure) or intrinsic (personal coping pattern, e.g., high need for control) effort independently predict new cardiovascular events in a prospective study on blue-collar men. Furthermore, these variables partly explain prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, atherogenic lipids) in 2 independent studies. Studying adverse health effects of high-effort/low-reward conditions seems well justified, especially in view of recent developments of the labor market.

  13. Perceptual Learning of Speech under Optimal and Adverse Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Xujin; Samuel, Arthur G.

    2014-01-01

    Humans have a remarkable ability to understand spoken language despite the large amount of variability in speech. Previous research has shown that listeners can use lexical information to guide their interpretation of atypical sounds in speech (Norris, McQueen, & Cutler, 2003). This kind of lexically induced perceptual learning enables people to adjust to the variations in utterances due to talker-specific characteristics, such as individual identity and dialect. The current study investigated perceptual learning in two optimal conditions: conversational speech (Experiment 1) vs. clear speech (Experiment 2), and three adverse conditions: noise (Experiment 3a) vs. two cognitive loads (Experiments 4a & 4b). Perceptual learning occurred in the two optimal conditions and in the two cognitive load conditions, but not in the noise condition. Furthermore, perceptual learning occurred only in the first of two sessions for each participant, and only for atypical /s/ sounds and not for atypical /f/ sounds. This pattern of learning and non-learning reflects a balance between flexibility and stability that the speech system must have to deal with speech variability in the diverse conditions that speech is encountered. PMID:23815478

  14. Assurance of Fault Management: Risk-Significant Adverse Condition Awareness

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fitz, Rhonda

    2016-01-01

    Fault Management (FM) systems are ranked high in risk-based assessment of criticality within flight software, emphasizing the importance of establishing highly competent domain expertise to provide assurance for NASA projects, especially as spaceflight systems continue to increase in complexity. Insight into specific characteristics of FM architectures seen embedded within safety- and mission-critical software systems analyzed by the NASA Independent Verification Validation (IVV) Program has been enhanced with an FM Technical Reference (TR) suite. Benefits are aimed beyond the IVV community to those that seek ways to efficiently and effectively provide software assurance to reduce the FM risk posture of NASA and other space missions. The identification of particular FM architectures, visibility, and associated IVV techniques provides a TR suite that enables greater assurance that critical software systems will adequately protect against faults and respond to adverse conditions. The role FM has with regard to overall asset protection of flight software systems is being addressed with the development of an adverse condition (AC) database encompassing flight software vulnerabilities.Identification of potential off-nominal conditions and analysis to determine how a system responds to these conditions are important aspects of hazard analysis and fault management. Understanding what ACs the mission may face, and ensuring they are prevented or addressed is the responsibility of the assurance team, which necessarily should have insight into ACs beyond those defined by the project itself. Research efforts sponsored by NASAs Office of Safety and Mission Assurance defined terminology, categorized data fields, and designed a baseline repository that centralizes and compiles a comprehensive listing of ACs and correlated data relevant across many NASA missions. This prototype tool helps projects improve analysis by tracking ACs, and allowing queries based on project, mission

  15. Risk of Adverse Cognitive or Behavioral Conditions and Psychiatric Disorders

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Slack, Kelley J.; Schneiderman, Jason S.; Leveton, Lauren B.; Whitmire, Alexandra M.; Picano, James J.

    2015-01-01

    The NASA commitment to human space flight includes continuing to fly astronauts on the ISS until it is decommissioned as well as possibly returning astronauts to the moon or having astronauts venture to an asteroid or Mars. As missions leave low Earth orbit and explore deeper space, BHP supports and conducts research to enable a risk posture that considers the risk of adverse cognitive or behavioral conditions and psychiatric disorders “acceptable given mitigations,” for pre-, in, and post-flight.The Human System Risk Board (HSRB) determines the risk of various mission scenarios using a likelihood (per person per year) by consequences matrix examining those risks across two categories—long term health and operational (within mission). Colors from a stoplight signal are used by HSRB and quickly provide a means of assessing overall perceived risk for a particular mission scenario. Risk associated with the current six month missions on the ISS are classified as “accepted with monitoring” while planetary missions, such as a mission to Mars, are recognized to be a “red” risk that requires mitigation to ensure mission success.Currently, the HSRB deems that the risk of adverse cognitive or behavioral conditions and psychiatric outcomes requires mitigation for planetary missions owing to long duration isolation and radiation exposure (see Table 1). While limited research evidence exists from spaceflight, it is well known anecdotally that the shift from the two week shuttle missions to the six month ISS missions renders the psychological stressors of space as more salient over longer duration missions. Shuttle astronauts were expected just to tolerate any stressors that arose during their mission and were successful at doing so (Whitmire et al, 2013). While it is possible to deal with stressors such as social isolation and to live with incompatible crewmembers for two weeks on shuttle, “ignoring it” is much less likely to be a successful coping mechanism

  16. Climate Conditioning for the Learning Environment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perkins and Will, Architects, Chicago, IL.

    Discusses heating, cooling, and ventilation for the classroom in relationship to students' learning abilities. It is designed to assist school boards, administrators, architects and engineers in understanding the beneficial effects of total climate control, and in evaluating the climate conditioning systems available for schools. Discussion…

  17. 75 FR 8353 - Waiver of Filing Deadline Due to Adverse Weather Conditions

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-02-24

    ... COMMISSION Waiver of Filing Deadline Due to Adverse Weather Conditions February 16, 2010. AGENCY: Federal Communications Commission. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: Due to adverse weather conditions, the Federal Communications..., February 11, 2010. In recognition of the numerous closings and disruptions caused by the weather in...

  18. Bill E. Kunkle Interdisciplinary Beef Symposium: Animal welfare concerns for cattle exposed to adverse environmental conditions.

    PubMed

    Mader, T L

    2014-12-01

    reared outside during the winter, strategies that increase animal space and environmental buffers need to be employed to minimize effects of mud, wet conditions, and wind chill. The above-mentioned weather events suggest that there are ample opportunities for livestock producers to enhance animal welfare and minimize impact of environmental stress. Caretakers need a greater understanding of animal responses to weather challenges to help animals cope with adverse climatic conditions.

  19. Fluorescence parameters of leaves of trees and shrubs during period of adverse weather conditions in Krasnoyarsk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zavorueva, E. N.; Zavoruev, V. V.

    2015-11-01

    The effect of adverse weather conditions (AWC) on the fluorescence parameters of leaves Prinsepia sinensis, Amelanchier florida, Crataegus chlorocarca is obtained. However, significant changes in the fluorescence of the leaves of Acer negundo, Betula pendula under AWC were not observed.

  20. ACCEPT: Introduction of the Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martin, Rodney A.; Santanu, Das; Janakiraman, Vijay Manikandan; Hosein, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    The prediction of anomalies or adverse events is a challenging task, and there are a variety of methods which can be used to address the problem. In this paper, we introduce a generic framework developed in MATLAB (sup registered mark) called ACCEPT (Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox). ACCEPT is an architectural framework designed to compare and contrast the performance of a variety of machine learning and early warning algorithms, and tests the capability of these algorithms to robustly predict the onset of adverse events in any time-series data generating systems or processes.

  1. Health Monitoring and Management for Manufacturing Workers in Adverse Working Conditions.

    PubMed

    Xu, Xiaoya; Zhong, Miao; Wan, Jiafu; Yi, Minglun; Gao, Tiancheng

    2016-10-01

    In adverse working conditions, environmental parameters such as metallic dust, noise, and environmental temperature, directly affect the health condition of manufacturing workers. It is therefore important to implement health monitoring and management based on important physiological parameters (e.g., heart rate, blood pressure, and body temperature). In recent years, new technologies, such as body area networks, cloud computing, and smart clothing, have allowed the improvement of the quality of services. In this article, we first give five-layer architecture for health monitoring and management of manufacturing workers. Then, we analyze the system implementation process, including environmental data processing, physical condition monitoring and system services and management, and present the corresponding algorithms. Finally, we carry out an evaluation and analysis from the perspective of insurance and compensation for manufacturing workers in adverse working conditions. The proposed scheme will contribute to the improvement of workplace conditions, realize health monitoring and management, and protect the interests of manufacturing workers.

  2. Adverse Pregnancy Conditions, Infertility, and Future Cardiovascular Risk: Implications for Mother and Child

    PubMed Central

    Park, Ki; Wei, Janet; Minissian, Margo; Merz, C. Noel Bairey

    2016-01-01

    Adverse pregnancy conditions in women are common and have been associated with adverse cardiovascular and metabolic outcomes such as myocardial infarction and stroke. As risk stratification in women is often suboptimal, recognition of non-traditional risk factors such as hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and premature delivery has become increasingly important. Additionally, such conditions may also increase the risk of cardiovascular disease in the children of afflicted women. In this review, we aim to highlight these conditions, along with infertility, and the association between such conditions and various cardiovascular outcomes and related maternal risk along with potential translation of risk to offspring. We will also discuss proposed mechanisms driving these associations as well as potential opportunities for screening and risk modification. PMID:26037616

  3. Causal Factors and Adverse Conditions of Aviation Accidents and Incidents Related to Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reveley, Mary S.; Briggs, Jeffrey L.; Evans, Joni K.; Sandifer, Carl E.; Jones, Sharon Monica

    2010-01-01

    The causal factors of accidents from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) database and incidents from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) database associated with loss of control (LOC) were examined for four types of operations (i.e., Federal Aviation Regulation Part 121, Part 135 Scheduled, Part 135 Nonscheduled, and Part 91) for the years 1988 to 2004. In-flight LOC is a serious aviation problem. Well over half of the LOC accidents included at least one fatality (80 percent in Part 121), and roughly half of all aviation fatalities in the studied time period occurred in conjunction with LOC. An adverse events table was updated to provide focus to the technology validation strategy of the Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC) Project. The table contains three types of adverse conditions: failure, damage, and upset. Thirteen different adverse condition subtypes were gleaned from the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS), the FAA Accident and Incident database, and the NTSB database. The severity and frequency of the damage conditions, initial test conditions, and milestones references are also provided.

  4. Assessment of the State of the Art of Flight Control Technologies as Applicable to Adverse Conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reveley, Mary s.; Briggs, Jeffrey L.; Leone, Karen M.; Kurtoglu, Tolga; Withrow, Colleen A.

    2010-01-01

    Literature from academia, industry, and other Government agencies was surveyed to assess the state of the art in current Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC) aircraft technologies. Over 100 papers from 25 conferences from the time period 2004 to 2009 were reviewed. An assessment of the general state of the art in adaptive flight control is summarized first, followed by an assessment of the state of the art as applicable to 13 identified adverse conditions. Specific areas addressed in the general assessment include flight control when compensating for damage or reduced performance, retrofit software upgrades to flight controllers, flight control through engine response, and finally test and validation of new adaptive controllers. The state-of-the-art assessment applicable to the adverse conditions include technologies not specifically related to flight control, but may serve as inputs to a future flight control algorithm. This study illustrates existing gaps and opportunities for additional research by the NASA IRAC Project

  5. Overland flow connectivity under different climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanoch, Lavee

    2015-04-01

    The effect of climate conditions on overland flow connectivity was investigated in arid (mean annual rainfall 120 mm), semi-arid (mean annual rainfall 280 mm) and sub-humid (mean annual rainfall 620 mm) regions. In each of these regions a hillslope reference plot was established, in which soil properties and hydrological variables were measured. The results show that at the regional scale soil organic matter content and aggregate stability decreased with increasing aridity. Infiltration rate also decreased with aridity but overland flow increased. At the hillslope scale, at each of the regions overland flow decreased with increasing hillslope length which means that overland flow is not continuous and water losses increases with hillslope length. In order to understand the controlling factors of overland flow continuity the spatial distribution of soil properties, vegetation cover and overland flow generation mechanisms were measured along hillslopes. The results show that water contributing (source) patches and water collecting (sink) patches exist along the hillslopes, in accordance with the spatial distribution of shrubs. The conclusion is that overland flow connectivity at the hillslope scale is affected mainly by the size, the density and by the spatial distribution of shrubs. An application for preventing soil erosion in urban areas (parks), along roads and in cultivated areas is that planting vegetation in patches or strips is more efficient than all over the hillslopes.

  6. Flight Testing Under Extreme Climatic Conditions

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-09-01

    FACILITY .. ........ 33 MCKINLEY CIMATIC LABORATORY .... ............ 34 Climatic Laboratory Description ... ........... 35 Climatic Laboratory...with other changes result- ing from a development program. This assures the availability of a globally effective system in the shortest possible time...procedural changes /improvements implemented and an assessment made of objectives achieved. This assessment sets the stage for preparation of the procedures

  7. Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species.

    PubMed

    Flousek, Jiří; Telenský, Tomáš; Hanzelka, Jan; Reif, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is among the most important global threats to biodiversity and mountain areas are supposed to be under especially high pressure. Although recent modelling studies suggest considerable future range contractions of montane species accompanied with increased extinction risk, data allowing to test actual population consequences of the observed climate changes and identifying traits associated to their adverse impacts are very scarce. To fill this knowledge gap, we estimated long-term population trends of montane birds from 1984 to 2011 in a central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains (Krkonoše), where significant warming occurred over this period. We then related the population trends to several species' traits related to the climate change effects. We found that the species breeding in various habitats at higher altitudes had more negative trends than species breeding at lower altitudes. We also found that the species moved upwards as a response to warming climate, and these altitudinal range shifts were associated with more positive population trends at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. Moreover, long-distance migrants declined more than residents or species migrating for shorter distances. Taken together, these results indicate that the climate change, besides other possible environmental changes, already influences populations of montane birds with particularly adverse impacts on high-altitude species such as water pipit (Anthus spinoletta). It is evident that the alpine species, predicted to undergo serious climatically induced range contractions due to warming climate in the future, already started moving along this trajectory.

  8. Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species

    PubMed Central

    Flousek, Jiří; Telenský, Tomáš; Hanzelka, Jan; Reif, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is among the most important global threats to biodiversity and mountain areas are supposed to be under especially high pressure. Although recent modelling studies suggest considerable future range contractions of montane species accompanied with increased extinction risk, data allowing to test actual population consequences of the observed climate changes and identifying traits associated to their adverse impacts are very scarce. To fill this knowledge gap, we estimated long-term population trends of montane birds from 1984 to 2011 in a central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains (Krkonoše), where significant warming occurred over this period. We then related the population trends to several species' traits related to the climate change effects. We found that the species breeding in various habitats at higher altitudes had more negative trends than species breeding at lower altitudes. We also found that the species moved upwards as a response to warming climate, and these altitudinal range shifts were associated with more positive population trends at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. Moreover, long-distance migrants declined more than residents or species migrating for shorter distances. Taken together, these results indicate that the climate change, besides other possible environmental changes, already influences populations of montane birds with particularly adverse impacts on high-altitude species such as water pipit (Anthus spinoletta). It is evident that the alpine species, predicted to undergo serious climatically induced range contractions due to warming climate in the future, already started moving along this trajectory. PMID:26426901

  9. Algorithms for contours depicting static electric fields during adverse weather conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rompala, John T.

    1991-01-01

    A flexible and functional analytical tool is developed for the study of electric fields during adverse weather conditions. This tool is designed for use by members of the Atmospheric Science Group as part of their overall effort to appraise environmental conditions during these situations. It is also used to illustrate approaches open to those interested in the study of the physics of ambient electric field phenomena. Computer resources of KSC are coordinated with original software to produce contour interpretations of electric field data available from a grid of field mills spanning the region. Three model algorithms are presented and examples are given illustrating the system design, flexibility, and utility.

  10. Some effects of adverse weather conditions on performance of airplane antiskid braking systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Horne, W. B.; Mccarty, J. L.; Tanner, J. A.

    1976-01-01

    The performance of current antiskid braking systems operating under adverse weather conditions was analyzed in an effort to both identify the causes of locked-wheel skids which sometimes occur when the runway is slippery and to find possible solutions to this operational problem. This analysis was made possible by the quantitative test data provided by recently completed landing research programs using fully instrumented flight test airplanes and was further supported by tests performed at the Langley aircraft landing loads and traction facility. The antiskid system logic for brake control and for both touchdown and locked-wheel protection is described and its response behavior in adverse weather is discussed in detail with the aid of available data. The analysis indicates that the operational performance of the antiskid logic circuits is highly dependent upon wheel spin-up acceleration and can be adversely affected by certain pilot braking inputs when accelerations are low. Normal antiskid performance is assured if the tire-to-runway traction is sufficient to provide high wheel spin-up accelerations or if the system is provided a continuous, accurate ground speed reference. The design of antiskid systems is complicated by the necessity for tradeoffs between tire braking and cornering capabilities, both of which are necessary to provide safe operations in the presence of cross winds, particularly under slippery runway conditions.

  11. Risk of Adverse Cognitive or Behavioral Conditions and Psychiatric Disorders: Evidence Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Slack, Kelley J.; Williams, Thomas J.; Schneiderman, Jason S.; Whitmire, Alexandra M.; Picano, James J.; Leveton, Lauren B.; Schmidt, Lacey L.; Shea, Camille

    2016-01-01

    In April 2010, President Obama declared a space pioneering goal for the United States in general and NASA in particular. "Fifty years after the creation of NASA, our goal is no longer just a destination to reach. Our goal is the capacity for people to work and learn and operate and live safely beyond the Earth for extended periods of time, ultimately in ways that are more sustainable and even indefinite." Thus NASA's Strategic Objective 1.1 emerged as "expand human presence into the solar system and to the surface of Mars to advance exploration, science, innovation, benefits to humanity, and international collaboration" (NASA 2015b). Any space flight, be it of long or short duration, occurs in an extreme environment that has unique stressors. Even with excellent selection methods, the potential for behavioral problems among space flight crews remain a threat to mission success. Assessment of factors that are related to behavioral health can help minimize the chances of distress and, thus, reduce the likelihood of adverse cognitive or behavioral conditions and psychiatric disorders arising within a crew. Similarly, countermeasures that focus on prevention and treatment can mitigate the cognitive or behavioral conditions that, should they arise, would impact mission success. Given the general consensus that longer duration, isolation, and confined missions have a greater risk for behavioral health ensuring crew behavioral health over the long term is essential. Risk, which within the context of this report is assessed with respect to behavioral health and performance, is addressed to deter development of cognitive and behavioral degradations or psychiatric conditions in space flight and analog populations, and to monitor, detect, and treat early risk factors, predictors and other contributing factors. Based on space flight and analog evidence, the average incidence rate of an adverse behavioral health event occurring during a space mission is relatively low for the

  12. Significance of frailty for predicting adverse clinical outcomes in different patient groups with specific medical conditions.

    PubMed

    Ritt, Martin; Gaßmann, Karl-Günter; Sieber, Cornel Christian

    2016-10-01

    Frailty is a major health burden in an aging society. It constitutes a clinical state of reduced physiological reserves that is associated with a diminished ability to withstand internal and external stressors. Frail patients have an increased risk for adverse clinical outcomes, such as mortality, readmission to hospital, institutionalization and falls. Of further clinical interest, frailty might be at least in part reversible in some patients and subject to preventive strategies. In daily clinical practice older patients with a complex health status, who are mostly frail or at least at risk of developing frailty, are frequently cared for by geriatricians. Recently, clinicians and scientists from other medical disciplines, such as cardiology, pulmonology, gastroenterology, nephrology, endocrinology, rheumatology, surgery and critical care medicine also discovered frailty to be an interesting instrument for risk stratification of patients, including younger patients. In this review we highlight the results of recent studies that demonstrated the significance of frailty to predict adverse clinical outcomes in patients with specific medical conditions, such as cardiac, lung, liver and kidney diseases as well as diabetes mellitus, osteoarthritis, trauma patients, patients undergoing surgery and critically ill patients. Multiple studies in patients with the aforementioned specific medical conditions could be identified demonstrating a predictive role of frailty for several adverse clinical outcomes. The association between frailty and adverse clinical outcomes reported in these studies was in part independent of several major potential confounder factors, such as age, sex, race, comorbidities and disabilities and were also detected in younger patients.

  13. Adverse psychosocial working conditions and minor psychiatric disorders among bank workers

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background In most countries, the financial service sector has undergone great organizational changes in the past decades, with potential negative impact on bank workers' mental health. The aim of this paper is to estimate the prevalence of minor psychiatric disorders (MPD) among Brazilian bank workers and to investigate whether they are associated with an adverse psychosocial working environment. Methods A cross-sectional study of a random sample of 2,500 workers in a Brazilian state bank in 2008. The presence of MPD was determined by the General Health Questionnaire.(GHQ). Psychosocial work conditions were assessed by means of the Effort-Reward Imbalance (ERI) and Job Content Questionnaire (JCQ). The presence and magnitude of the independent associations between MPD and adverse psychosocial working conditions were determined by Prevalence Ratios, obtained by Poisson regression. Results From 2,337 eligible workers, 88% participated. The prevalence of MPD was greater among women (45% vs. 41%; p > 0.05). In the multivariate analysis, the prevalence of MPD was twice as high among bank workers exposed to high psychological demand and low control at work and under high effort and low reward working conditions. The lack of social support at work and the presence of over-commitment were also associated with higher prevalence of MPD. A negative interaction effect was found between over-commitment and effort-reward imbalance. Conclusion The prevalence of MPD is high among bank workers. The results reinforce the association between MPD and adverse psychosocial working conditions, assessed by the JCQ and ERI models. The direction of the interaction observed between over-commitment and ERI was contrary to what was expected. PMID:21062496

  14. LEARNING TO BE BAD: ADVERSE SOCIAL CONDITIONS, SOCIAL SCHEMAS, AND CRIME

    PubMed Central

    Simons, Ronald L.; Burt, Callie Harbin

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we develop and test a new approach to explain the link between social factors and individual offending. We argue that seemingly disparate family, peer, and community conditions lead to crime because the lessons communicated by these events are similar and promote social schemas involving a hostile view of people and relationships, a preference for immediate rewards, and a cynical view of conventional norms. Further, we posit that these three schemas are interconnected and combine to form a criminogenic knowledge structure that gives rise to situational interpretations legitimating criminal behavior. Structural equation modeling with a sample of roughly 700 hundred African American teens provided strong support for the model. The findings indicated that persistent exposure to adverse conditions such as community crime, discrimination, harsh parenting, deviant peers and low neighborhood collective efficacy increased commitment to the three social schemas. The three schemas were highly intercorrelated and combined to form a latent construct that strongly predicted increases in crime. Further, in large measure the effect of the various adverse conditions on increases in crime was indirect through their impact on this latent construct. We discuss the extent to which the social schematic model presented in the paper might be used to integrate concepts and findings from several of the major theories of criminal behavior. PMID:21760641

  15. Space shuttle orbit maneuvering engine reusable thrust chamber: Adverse operating conditions test report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tobin, R. D.

    1974-01-01

    Test hardware, facilities, and procedures are described along with results of electrically heated tube and channel tests conducted to determine adverse operating condition limits for convectively cooled chambers typical of Space Shuttle Orbit Manuevering Engine designs. Hot-start tests were conducted with corrosion resistant steel and nickel tubes with both monomethylhydrazine and 50-50 coolants. Helium ingestion, in both bubble and froth form, was studied in tubular test sections. Helium bubble ingestion and burn-out limits in rectangular channels were also investigated.

  16. Speech perception under adverse conditions: insights from behavioral, computational, and neuroscience research

    PubMed Central

    Guediche, Sara; Blumstein, Sheila E.; Fiez, Julie A.; Holt, Lori L.

    2014-01-01

    Adult speech perception reflects the long-term regularities of the native language, but it is also flexible such that it accommodates and adapts to adverse listening conditions and short-term deviations from native-language norms. The purpose of this article is to examine how the broader neuroscience literature can inform and advance research efforts in understanding the neural basis of flexibility and adaptive plasticity in speech perception. Specifically, we highlight the potential role of learning algorithms that rely on prediction error signals and discuss specific neural structures that are likely to contribute to such learning. To this end, we review behavioral studies, computational accounts, and neuroimaging findings related to adaptive plasticity in speech perception. Already, a few studies have alluded to a potential role of these mechanisms in adaptive plasticity in speech perception. Furthermore, we consider research topics in neuroscience that offer insight into how perception can be adaptively tuned to short-term deviations while balancing the need to maintain stability in the perception of learned long-term regularities. Consideration of the application and limitations of these algorithms in characterizing flexible speech perception under adverse conditions promises to inform theoretical models of speech. PMID:24427119

  17. Effects of City Expansion on Heat Stress under Climate Change Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Argüeso, Daniel; Evans, Jason P.; Pitman, Andrew J.; Di Luca, Alejandro

    2015-01-01

    We examine the joint contribution of urban expansion and climate change on heat stress over the Sydney region. A Regional Climate Model was used to downscale present (1990–2009) and future (2040–2059) simulations from a Global Climate Model. The effects of urban surfaces on local temperature and vapor pressure were included. The role of urban expansion in modulating the climate change signal at local scales was investigated using a human heat-stress index combining temperature and vapor pressure. Urban expansion and climate change leads to increased risk of heat-stress conditions in the Sydney region, with substantially more frequent adverse conditions in urban areas. Impacts are particularly obvious in extreme values; daytime heat-stress impacts are more noticeable in the higher percentiles than in the mean values and the impact at night is more obvious in the lower percentiles than in the mean. Urban expansion enhances heat-stress increases due to climate change at night, but partly compensates its effects during the day. These differences are due to a stronger contribution from vapor pressure deficit during the day and from temperature increases during the night induced by urban surfaces. Our results highlight the inappropriateness of assessing human comfort determined using temperature changes alone and point to the likelihood that impacts of climate change assessed using models that lack urban surfaces probably underestimate future changes in terms of human comfort. PMID:25668390

  18. Effects of city expansion on heat stress under climate change conditions.

    PubMed

    Argüeso, Daniel; Evans, Jason P; Pitman, Andrew J; Di Luca, Alejandro

    2015-01-01

    We examine the joint contribution of urban expansion and climate change on heat stress over the Sydney region. A Regional Climate Model was used to downscale present (1990-2009) and future (2040-2059) simulations from a Global Climate Model. The effects of urban surfaces on local temperature and vapor pressure were included. The role of urban expansion in modulating the climate change signal at local scales was investigated using a human heat-stress index combining temperature and vapor pressure. Urban expansion and climate change leads to increased risk of heat-stress conditions in the Sydney region, with substantially more frequent adverse conditions in urban areas. Impacts are particularly obvious in extreme values; daytime heat-stress impacts are more noticeable in the higher percentiles than in the mean values and the impact at night is more obvious in the lower percentiles than in the mean. Urban expansion enhances heat-stress increases due to climate change at night, but partly compensates its effects during the day. These differences are due to a stronger contribution from vapor pressure deficit during the day and from temperature increases during the night induced by urban surfaces. Our results highlight the inappropriateness of assessing human comfort determined using temperature changes alone and point to the likelihood that impacts of climate change assessed using models that lack urban surfaces probably underestimate future changes in terms of human comfort.

  19. Wear of novel ceramic-on-ceramic bearings under adverse and clinically relevant hip simulator conditions.

    PubMed

    Al-Hajjar, Mazen; Jennings, Louise M; Begand, Sabine; Oberbach, Thomas; Delfosse, Daniel; Fisher, John

    2013-11-01

    Further development of ceramic materials for total hip replacement aim to increase fracture toughness and further reduce the incidence of bearing fracture. Edge loading due to translational mal positioning (microseparation) has replicated stripe wear, wear rates, and bimodal wear debris observed on retrievals. This method has replicated the fracture of early zirconia ceramic-on-ceramic bearings. This has shown the necessity of introducing microseparation conditions to the gait cycle when assessing the tribological performance of new hip replacement bearings. Two novel ceramic matrix composite materials, zirconia-toughened alumina (ZTA) and alumina-toughened zirconia (ATZ), were developed by Mathys Orthopädie GmbH. In this study, ATZ-on-ATZ and ZTA-on-ZTA bearing combinations were tested and compared with alumina-on-alumina (Al2O3-on-Al2O3) bearings under adverse microseparation and edge loading conditions using the Leeds II physiological anatomical hip joint simulator. The wear rate (±95% confidence limit) of ZTA-on-ZTA was 0.14 ± 0.10 mm(3)/million cycles and that of ATZ-on-ATZ was 0.06 ± 0.004 mm(3)/million cycles compared with a wear rate of 0.74 ± 1.73 mm(3)/million cycles for Al2O3-on-Al2O3 bearings. Stripe wear was evident on all bearing combinations; however, the stripe formed on the ATZ and ZTA femoral heads was thinner and shallower that that formed on the Al2O3 heads. Posttest phase composition measurements for both ATZ and ZTA materials showed no significant change in the monoclinic zirconia content. ATZ-on-ATZ and ZTA-on-ZTA showed superior wear resistance properties when compared with Al2O3-on-Al2O3 under adverse edge loading conditions.

  20. A Ground-Based Array to Observe Geospace Electrodynamics During Adverse Space Weather Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sojka, J. J.; Eccles, J. V.; Rice, D.

    2004-05-01

    Geomagnetic Storms occur with surprising frequency and create adverse space weather conditions. During these periods, our knowledge and ability to specify or forecast in adequate detail for user needs is negligible. Neither experimental observations nor theoretical developments have made a significant new impact on the problem for over two decades. Although we can now map Total Electron Content (TEC) in the ionosphere over a continent with sufficient resolution to see coherent long-lived structures, these do not provide constraints on the geospace electrodynamics that is at the heart of our lack of understanding. We present arguments for the need of a continental deployment of ground-based sensors to stepwise advance our understanding of the geospace electrodynamics when it is most adverse from a space weather perspective and also most frustrating from an understanding of Magnetosphere-Ionosphere coupling. That a continental-scale deployment is more productive at addressing the problem than a realizable global distribution is shown. Each measurement is discussed from the point-of-view of either providing new knowledge or becoming a key for future real-time specification and forecasting for user applications. An example of a storm database from one mid-latitude station for the 31 March 2002 is used as a conceptual point in a ground-based array. The presentation focuses on scientific questions that have eluded a quantitative solution for over three decades and view a ground-based array as an "IGY" type of catalyst for answering these questions.

  1. Unusual climatic conditions and infectious diseases: observations made by Hippocrates.

    PubMed

    Falagas, Matthew E; Bliziotis, Ioannis A; Kosmidis, John; Daikos, George K

    2010-12-01

    About 2500 years ago, Hippocrates made noteworthy observations about the influence of climate on public health. He believed that people living in cities with different climate may suffer from different diseases. Hippocrates also observed that abrupt climatic changes or unusual weather conditions affect public health, especially the incidence and severity of various infectious diseases, including gastrointestinal infections, tuberculosis, and central nervous system infections. We believe that Hippocrates' scientific observations are great early historic examples that stress to modern infectious diseases researchers and clinicians the need to study intensively the effect of the occurring global climate changes to infectious diseases in order to help in the prevention of possible epidemics of infections.

  2. Determination and representation of electric charge distributions associated with adverse weather conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rompala, John T.

    1992-01-01

    Algorithms are presented for determining the size and location of electric charges which model storm systems and lightning strikes. The analysis utilizes readings from a grid of ground level field mills and geometric constraints on parameters to arrive at a representative set of charges. This set is used to generate three dimensional graphical depictions of the set as well as contour maps of the ground level electrical environment over the grid. The composite, analytic and graphic package is demonstrated and evaluated using controlled input data and archived data from a storm system. The results demonstrate the packages utility as: an operational tool in appraising adverse weather conditions; a research tool in studies of topics such as storm structure, storm dynamics, and lightning; and a tool in designing and evaluating grid systems.

  3. Probiotics production and alternative encapsulation methodologies to improve their viabilities under adverse environmental conditions.

    PubMed

    Coghetto, Chaline Caren; Brinques, Graziela Brusch; Ayub, Marco Antônio Záchia

    2016-12-01

    Probiotic products are dietary supplements containing live microorganisms producing beneficial health effects on the host by improving intestinal balance and nutrient absorption. Among probiotic microorganisms, those classified as lactic acid bacteria are of major importance to the food and feed industries. Probiotic cells can be produced using alternative carbon and nitrogen sources, such as agroindustrial residues, at the same time contributing to reduce process costs. On the other hand, the survival of probiotic cells in formulated food products, as well as in the host gut, is an essential nutritional aspect concerning health benefits. Therefore, several cell microencapsulation techniques have been investigated as a way to improve cell viability and survival under adverse environmental conditions, such as the gastrointestinal milieu of hosts. In this review, different aspects of probiotic cells and technologies of their related products are discussed, including formulation of culture media, and aspects of cell microencapsulation techniques required to improve their survival in the host.

  4. Cost-sharing, physician utilization, and adverse selection among Medicare beneficiaries with chronic health conditions.

    PubMed

    Hoffman, Geoffrey

    2015-02-01

    Pooled data from the 2007, 2009, and 2011/2012 California Health Interview Surveys were used to compare the number of self-reported annual physician visits among 36,808 Medicare beneficiaries ≥65 in insurance groups with differential cost-sharing. Adjusted for adverse selection and a set of health covariates, Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) only beneficiaries had similar physician utilization compared with HMO enrollees but fewer visits compared with those with supplemental (1.04, p = .001) and Medicaid (1.55, p = .003) coverage. FFS only beneficiaries in very good or excellent health had fewer visits compared with those of similar health status with supplemental (1.30, p = .001) or Medicaid coverage (2.15, p = .002). For subpopulations with several chronic conditions, FFS only beneficiaries also had fewer visits compared with beneficiaries with supplemental or Medicaid coverage. Observed differences in utilization may reflect efficient and necessary physician utilization among those with chronic health needs.

  5. Functions of Nitric Oxide (NO) in Roots during Development and under Adverse Stress Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Corpas, Francisco J.; Barroso, Juan B.

    2015-01-01

    The free radical molecule, nitric oxide (NO), is present in the principal organs of plants, where it plays an important role in a wide range of physiological functions. Root growth and development are highly regulated by both internal and external factors such as nutrient availability, hormones, pattern formation, cell polarity and cell cycle control. The presence of NO in roots has opened up new areas of research on the role of NO, including root architecture, nutrient acquisition, microorganism interactions and the response mechanisms to adverse environmental conditions, among others. Additionally, the exogenous application of NO throughout the roots has the potential to counteract specific damages caused by certain stresses. This review aims to provide an up-to-date perspective on NO functions in the roots of higher plants. PMID:27135326

  6. Two Degrees of Separation: Abrupt Climate Change and the Adverse Impact to US National Security

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-04-01

    trend of increasing GHG emissions is marginally impacting or irrelevant altogether. “Other factors, including sun spots, solar winds, variations ...climate variations over a wide range of time scales, making it a natural sensor of climate variability and providing a visible expression of climate...many observed changes in phenology and distribution have been associated with rising water temperatures, as well as changes in salinity, oxygen levels

  7. Global responses of Escherichia coli to adverse conditions determined by microarrays and FT-IR spectroscopy.

    PubMed

    Moen, Birgitte; Janbu, Astrid Oust; Langsrud, Solveig; Langsrud, Oyvind; Hobman, Jon L; Constantinidou, Chrystala; Kohler, Achim; Rudi, Knut

    2009-06-01

    The global gene expression and biomolecular composition in an Escherichia coli model strain exposed to 10 adverse conditions (sodium chloride, ethanol, glycerol, hydrochloric and acetic acid, sodium hydroxide, heat (46 degrees C), and cold (15 degrees C), as well as ethidium bromide and the disinfectant benzalkonium chloride) were determined using DNA microarrays and Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy. In total, approximately 40% of all investigated genes (1682/4279 genes) significantly changed expression, compared with a nonstressed control. There were, however, only 3 genes (ygaW (unknown function), rmf (encoding a ribosomal modification factor), and ghrA (encoding a glyoxylate/hydroxypyruvate reductase)) that significantly changed expression under all conditions (not including benzalkonium chloride). The FT-IR analysis showed an increase in unsaturated fatty acids during ethanol and cold exposure, and a decrease during acid and heat exposure. Cold conditions induced changes in the carbohydrate composition of the cell, possibly related to the upregulation of outer membrane genes (glgAP and rcsA). Although some covariance was observed between the 2 data sets, principle component analysis and regression analyses revealed that the gene expression and the biomolecular responses are not well correlated in stressed populations of E. coli, underlining the importance of multiple strategies to begin to understand the effect on the whole cell.

  8. Chosen risk level during car-following in adverse weather conditions.

    PubMed

    Hjelkrem, Odd André; Ryeng, Eirin Olaussen

    2016-10-01

    This study examines how precipitation, light conditions and surface conditions affect the drivers' risk perception. An indicator CRI (Chosen Risk Index) is defined, which describes the chosen risk level for drivers in a car-following situation. The dataset contains about 70 000 observations of driver behaviour and weather status on a rural road. Based on the theory of risk homeostasis and an assumption that driving behaviour in situations with daylight, dry road and no precipitation reflects drivers' target level of risk, generalised linear models (GLM) were estimated for cars and trucks separately to reveal the effect of adverse weather conditions on risk perception. The analyses show that both car and truck drivers perceive the highest risk when driving on snow covered roads. For car drivers, a snow covered road in combination with moderate rain or light snow are the factors which lowers the CRI the most. For trucks, snow cover and partially covered roads significantly lowers the CRI, while precipitation did not seem to impose any higher risk. Interaction effects were found for car drivers only.

  9. Future Risks of Pest Species under Changing Climatic Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Biber-Freudenberger, Lisa; Ziemacki, Jasmin; Tonnang, Henri E. Z.; Borgemeister, Christian

    2016-01-01

    Most agricultural pests are poikilothermic species expected to respond to climate change. Currently, they are a tremendous burden because of the high losses they inflict on crops and livestock. Smallholder farmers in developing countries of Africa are likely to suffer more under these changes than farmers in the developed world because more severe climatic changes are projected in these areas. African countries further have a lower ability to cope with impacts of climate change through the lack of suitable adapted management strategies and financial constraints. In this study we are predicting current and future habitat suitability under changing climatic conditions for Tuta absoluta, Ceratitis cosyra, and Bactrocera invadens, three important insect pests that are common across some parts of Africa and responsible for immense agricultural losses. We use presence records from different sources and bioclimatic variables to predict their habitat suitability using the maximum entropy modelling approach. We find that habitat suitability for B. invadens, C. cosyra and T. absoluta is partially increasing across the continent, especially in those areas already overlapping with or close to most suitable sites under current climate conditions. Assuming a habitat suitability at three different threshold levels we assessed where each species is likely to be present under future climatic conditions and if this is likely to have an impact on productive agricultural areas. Our results can be used by African policy makers, extensionists and farmers for agricultural adaptation measures to cope with the impacts of climate change. PMID:27054718

  10. Climate change and adverse health events: community perceptions from the Tanahu district of Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishra, Shiva Raj; Mani Bhandari, Parash; Issa, Rita; Neupane, Dinesh; Gurung, Swadesh; Khanal, Vishnu

    2015-03-01

    Nepal is a country economically dependent on climate-sensitive industries. It is highly vulnerable to the environmental, social, economic and health impacts of climate change. The objective of this study is to explore community perceptions of climate variability and human health risks. In this letter, we present a cross sectional study conducted between August 2013 and July 2014 in the Tanahu district of Nepal. Our analysis is based on 258 face-to-face interviews with household heads utilizing structured questionnaires. Over half of the respondents (54.7%) had perceived a change in climate, 53.9% had perceived an increase in temperature in the summer and 49.2% had perceived an increase in rainfall during the rainy season. Half of the respondents perceived an increase in the number of diseases during the summer, 46.5% perceived an increase during the rainy season and 48.8% during winter. Only 8.9% of the respondents felt that the government was doing enough to prevent climate change and its impact on their community. Belonging to the Janajati (indigenous) ethnic group, living in a pakki, super-pakki house and belonging to poor or mid-level income were related to higher odds of perceiving climate variability. Illiterates were less likely to perceive climate variability. Respondents living in a pakki house, super-pakki, or those who were poor were more likely to perceive health risks. Illiterates were less likely to perceive health risks.

  11. Vertical gradient of climate change and climate tourism conditions in the Black Forest.

    PubMed

    Endler, Christina; Oehler, Karoline; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2010-01-01

    Due to the public discussion about global and regional warming, the regional climate and the modified climate conditions are analyzed exemplarily for three different regions in the southern Black Forest (southwest Germany). The driving question behind the present study was how can tourism adapt to modified climate conditions and associated changes to the tourism potential in low mountain ranges. The tourism potential is predominately based on the attractiveness of natural resources being climate-sensitive. In this study, regional climate simulations (A1B) are analyzed by using the REMO model. To analyze the climatic tourism potential, the following thermal, physical and aesthetic parameters are considered for the time span 1961-2050: thermal comfort, heat and cold stress, sunshine, humid-warm conditions (sultriness), fog, precipitation, storm, and ski potential (snow cover). Frequency classes of these parameters expressed as a percentage are processed on a monthly scale. The results are presented in form of the Climate-Tourism-Information-Scheme (CTIS). Due to warmer temperatures, winters might shorten while summers might lengthen. The lowland might be more affected by heat and sultriness (e.g., Freiburg due to the effects of urban climate). To adapt to a changing climate and tourism, the awareness of both stakeholders and tourists as well as the adaptive capability are essential.

  12. Adverse childhood experiences and mental health, chronic medical conditions, and development in young children

    PubMed Central

    Kerker, Bonnie D.; Zhang, Jinjin; Nadeem, Erum; Stein, Ruth E. K.; Hurlburt, Michael S.; Heneghan, Amy; Landsverk, John; Horwitz, Sarah McCue

    2015-01-01

    Objective The objective of this study was to determine the relationships between adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and mental health, chronic medical conditions and social development among young children in the child welfare system. Methods This was a cross-sectional study, using a nationally representative sample of children investigated by child welfare (National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being II) from 2008–2009. Our analysis included caregiver interviews and caseworker reports about children age 18–71 months who were not in out-of-home care (N=912). We examined the associations between ACEs and mental health (measured by the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL)), reported chronic medical conditions, and social development (measured by the Vineland Socialization Scale), in bivariate and multivariate analyses. Results Nearly all children (98.1%) were reported to have had an ACE in their lifetime; the average number of ACEs was 3.6. For every additional reported ACE there was a 32% increased odds of having a problem score on the CBCL (Odds Ratio (OR)=1.32, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.14, 1.53), and a 21% increased odds of having a chronic medical condition (OR=1.21, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.40). Among children 36–71 months, for every additional reported ACE there was a 77% increased odds of a low Vineland Socialization score (OR=1.77, 95% CI: 1.12, 2.78). Conclusion and Relevance ACEs were associated with poor early childhood mental health and chronic medical conditions, and, among children age 3–5, social development. Efforts are needed to examine whether providing early intervention to families with multiple stressors mitigates the impact of ACEs on children’s outcomes. PMID:26183001

  13. Innovative Air Conditioning and Climate Control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Graf, John

    2015-01-01

    NASA needed to develop a desiccant wheel based humidity removal system to enable the long term testing of the Orion CO2 scrubber on the International Space Station. In the course of developing that system, we learned three things that are relevant to energy efficient air conditioning of office towers. NASA developed a conceptual design for a humidity removal system for an office tower environment. We are looking for interested partners to prototype and field test this concept.

  14. Pathways from childhood abuse and other adversities to adult health risks: The role of adult socioeconomic conditions.

    PubMed

    Font, Sarah A; Maguire-Jack, Kathryn

    2016-01-01

    Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), including child abuse, have been linked with poor health outcomes in adulthood. The mechanisms that explain these relations are less understood. This study assesses whether associations of ACEs and health risks are mediated by adult socioeconomic conditions, and whether these pathways are different for maltreatment than for other types of adversities. Using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System 2012 survey (N=29,229), we employ structural equation modeling to (1) estimate associations of the number and type of ACEs with five health risks-depression, obesity, tobacco use, binge drinking, and self-reported sub-optimal health; and (2) assess whether adult socioeconomic conditions-marriage, divorce and separation, educational attainment, income and insurance status-mediate those associations. Findings suggest both direct and indirect associations between ACEs and health risks. At high numbers of ACEs, 15-20% of the association between number of ACEs and adult health risks was attributable to socioeconomic conditions. Associations of three ACEs (exposure to domestic violence, parental divorce, and residing with a person who was incarcerated) with health risks were nearly entirely explained by socioeconomic conditions in adulthood. However, child physical, emotional, and sexual abuse were significantly associated with several adult health risks, beyond the effects of other adversities, and socioeconomic conditions explained only a small portion of these associations. These findings suggest that the pathways to poor adult health differ by types of ACEs, and that childhood abuse is more likely than other adversities to have a direct impact.

  15. 24 CFR 3285.404 - Severe climatic conditions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ....404 Severe climatic conditions. In frost-susceptible soil locations, ground anchor augers must be installed below the frost line, unless the foundation system is frost-protected to prevent the effects of frost heave, in accordance with acceptable engineering practice and § 3280.306 of this chapter...

  16. 24 CFR 3285.404 - Severe climatic conditions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ....404 Severe climatic conditions. In frost-susceptible soil locations, ground anchor augers must be installed below the frost line, unless the foundation system is frost-protected to prevent the effects of frost heave, in accordance with acceptable engineering practice and § 3280.306 of this chapter...

  17. 24 CFR 3285.404 - Severe climatic conditions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ....404 Severe climatic conditions. In frost-susceptible soil locations, ground anchor augers must be installed below the frost line, unless the foundation system is frost-protected to prevent the effects of frost heave, in accordance with acceptable engineering practice and § 3280.306 of this chapter...

  18. 24 CFR 3285.404 - Severe climatic conditions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ....404 Severe climatic conditions. In frost-susceptible soil locations, ground anchor augers must be installed below the frost line, unless the foundation system is frost-protected to prevent the effects of frost heave, in accordance with acceptable engineering practice and § 3280.306 of this chapter...

  19. 24 CFR 3285.404 - Severe climatic conditions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ....404 Severe climatic conditions. In frost-susceptible soil locations, ground anchor augers must be installed below the frost line, unless the foundation system is frost-protected to prevent the effects of frost heave, in accordance with acceptable engineering practice and § 3280.306 of this chapter...

  20. Forecasting conditional climate-change using a hybrid approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Esfahani, Akbar Akbari; Friedel, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients. This hybrid approach involves reconstructing past precipitation and temperature using the self-organizing map technique; determining quantile trends in the climate-change variables by quantile regression modeling; and computing conditional forecasts of climate-change variables based on self-similarity in quantile trends using the fractionally differenced auto-regressive integrated moving average technique. The proposed modeling approach is applied to states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) in the southwestern U.S., where conditional forecasts of climate-change variables are evaluated against recent (2012) observations, evaluated at a future time period (2030), and evaluated as future trends (2009–2059). These results have broad economic, political, and social implications because they quantify uncertainty in climate-change forecasts affecting various sectors of society. Another benefit of the proposed hybrid approach is that it can be extended to any spatiotemporal scale providing self-similarity exists.

  1. Pathways from Childhood Abuse and Other Adversities to Adult Health Risks: The Role of Adult Socioeconomic Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Maguire-Jack, Kathryn

    2015-01-01

    Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs), including child abuse, have been linked with poor health outcomes in adulthood. The mechanisms that explain these relations are less understood. This study assesses whether associations of ACEs and health risks are mediated by adult socioeconomic conditions, and whether these pathways are different for maltreatment than for other types of adversities. Using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System 2012 survey (N=29,229), we employ structural equation modeling to (1) estimate associations of the number and type of ACEs with five health risks – depression, obesity, tobacco use, binge drinking, and self-reported sub-optimal health; and (2) assess whether adult socioeconomic conditions— marriage, divorce and separation, educational attainment, income and insurance status—mediate those associations. Findings suggest both direct and indirect associations between ACEs and health risks. At high numbers of ACEs, 15–20% of the association between number of ACEs and adult health risks was attributable to socioeconomic conditions. Associations of three ACEs (exposure to domestic violence, parental divorce, and residing with a person who was incarcerated) with health risks were nearly entirely explained by socioeconomic conditions in adulthood. However, child physical, emotional and sexual abuse were significantly associated with several adult health risks, beyond the effects of other adversities, and socioeconomic conditions explained only a small portion of these associations. These findings suggest that the pathways to poor adult health differ by types of ACEs, and that childhood abuse is more likely than other adversities to have a direct impact. PMID:26059537

  2. The Formation of Teacher Work Teams under Adverse Conditions: Towards a More Realistic Scenario for Schools in Distress

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mintrop, Rick; Charles, Jessica

    2017-01-01

    Group formation studies are rare in the literature on teacher professional learning communities (PLCs). But they are needed to render realistic scenarios and design interventions for practitioners who work in schools where teachers encounter distress and social adversity. Under these conditions, we may need approaches to PLC development that are…

  3. Comparing Observed Hurricane Conditions Against Potential Future Climate Change Influences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graham, W. D.

    2012-12-01

    Climate Adaptation Science Investigators: (CASI) is to advance and apply NASA's scientific expertise and products to develop climate adaptation strategies that support NASA's overall mission by minimizing risks to each center's operations, physical assets, and personnel. Using Hurricane Katrina observations as a baseline, we use ADCIRC to model surge extent with simple modifications of the storm track. We examine two time now (T0) scenarios of present-day climatological factors: 1) translating the 2005 path 7 km west; and 2) rotating the approach angle from due-north to WNW. Second, we examine two future time scenarios (TX) by infusing climate change conditions, such as sea level rise and increased storm intensity, into a T0 baseline to assess future impacts. The primary goal of this work entails planning and protecting NASA assets and infrastructure. The adjacent communities, state and local emergency managers, gain benefit from this NASA work as data and analysis includes the surrounding geography.

  4. Ceramic production during changing environmental/climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oestreich, Daniela B.; Glasmacher, Ulrich A.

    2015-04-01

    Ceramics, with regard to their status as largely everlasting everyday object as well as on the basis of their chronological sensitivity, reflect despite their simplicity the technological level of a culture and therefore also, directly or indirectly, the adaptability of a culture with respect to environmental and/or climatic changes. For that reason the question arises, if it is possible to identify changes in production techniques and raw material sources for ceramic production, as a response to environmental change, e.g. climate change. This paper will present results of a research about Paracas Culture (800 - 200 BC), southern Peru. Through several investigations (e.g. Schittek et al., 2014; Eitel and Mächtle, 2009) it is well known that during Paracas period changes in climate and environmental conditions take place. As a consequence, settlement patterns shifted several times through the various stages of Paracas time. Ceramics from three different sites (Jauranga, Cutamalla, Collanco) and temporal phases of the Paracas period are detailed archaeometric, geochemical and mineralogical characterized, e.g. Raman spectroscopy, XRD, and ICP-MS analyses. The aim of this research is to resolve potential differences in the chemical composition of the Paracas ceramics in space and time and to compare the data with the data sets of pre-Columbian environmental conditions. Thus influences of changing environmental conditions on human societies and their cultural conditions will be discussed. References Eitel, B. and Mächtle, B. 2009. Man and Environment in the eastern Atacama Desert (Southern Peru): Holocene climate changes and their impact on pre-Columbian cultures. In: Reindel, M. & Wagner, G. A. (eds.) New Technologies for Archaeology. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag. Schittek, K., Mächtle, B., Schäbitz, F., Forbriger, M., Wennrich, V., Reindel, M., and Eitel, B.. Holocene environmental changes in the highlands of the southern Peruvian Andes (14° S) and their

  5. Building a Geoscience Program in an Adverse Fiscal Climate: Keys to Success

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hooper, R. L.

    2003-12-01

    Despite an almost 50 percent decline nationwide in undergraduate geoscience enrollment between 1995 and 2002 the Department of Geology at the University of Wisconsin - Eau Claire has experienced a 20 percent increase in the number of majors and minors studying geology over the same period. The department now has 90 majors/minors studying geology in an institution with 10,000 student headcount. In the face of declining State support for public higher-education and eroding university budgets, the Department of Geology has also added two faculty positions and over 1.3 million dollars in new laboratory equipment over the same period of time. Keys to building a successful program have been faculty recruitment and retention efforts, an increased emphasis on excellence in undergraduate collaborative research, attention to building a faculty and student community of scholars, and collaborative promotional work with other science departments. In addition considerable efforts have been devoted to explicitly recruiting top quality students from introductory courses and effectively using students to promote the department at the local, regional and national level. Recruiting top quality faculty is crucial and has required competitive salary packages, significant start-up funding and negotiating spousal hires within an extremely tight fiscal climate. Retaining faculty also requires attention to salary issues especially salary compression. One key to our success has been the undergraduate student's willingness to support high-priority academic activities such as collaborative research, technology initiatives and department capstone field experiences through a university-wide voluntary tuition surcharge. Many of the strategies that have been successful at UW-Eau Claire are transferable to other institutions.

  6. Variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics in Chesapeake Bay

    PubMed Central

    Harding, Jr., Lawrence W.; Mallonee, Michael E.; Perry, Elgin S.; Miller, W. David; Adolf, Jason E.; Gallegos, Charles L.; Paerl, Hans W.

    2016-01-01

    Variable climatic conditions strongly influence phytoplankton dynamics in estuaries globally. Our study area is Chesapeake Bay, a highly productive ecosystem providing natural resources, transportation, and recreation for nearly 16 million people inhabiting a 165,000-km2 watershed. Since World War II, nutrient over-enrichment has led to multiple ecosystem impairments caused by increased phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll-a (chl-a). Doubled nitrogen (N) loadings from 1945–1980 led to increased chl-a, reduced water clarity, and low dissolved oxygen (DO), while decreased N loadings from 1981–2012 suggest modest improvement. The recent 30+ years are characterized by high inter-annual variability of chl-a, coinciding with irregular dry and wet periods, complicating the detection of long-term trends. Here, we synthesize time-series data for historical and recent N loadings (TN, NO2 + NO3), chl-a, floral composition, and net primary productivity (NPP) to distinguish secular changes caused by nutrient over-enrichment from spatio-temporal variability imposed by climatic conditions. Wet years showed higher chl-a, higher diatom abundance, and increased NPP, while dry years showed lower chl-a, lower diatom abundance, and decreased NPP. Our findings support a conceptual model wherein variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics against a backdrop of nutrient over-enrichment, emphasizing the need to separate these effects to gauge progress toward improving water quality in estuaries. PMID:27026279

  7. Variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics in Chesapeake Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harding, Lawrence W., Jr.; Mallonee, Michael E.; Perry, Elgin S.; Miller, W. David; Adolf, Jason E.; Gallegos, Charles L.; Paerl, Hans W.

    2016-03-01

    Variable climatic conditions strongly influence phytoplankton dynamics in estuaries globally. Our study area is Chesapeake Bay, a highly productive ecosystem providing natural resources, transportation, and recreation for nearly 16 million people inhabiting a 165,000-km2 watershed. Since World War II, nutrient over-enrichment has led to multiple ecosystem impairments caused by increased phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll-a (chl-a). Doubled nitrogen (N) loadings from 1945–1980 led to increased chl-a, reduced water clarity, and low dissolved oxygen (DO), while decreased N loadings from 1981–2012 suggest modest improvement. The recent 30+ years are characterized by high inter-annual variability of chl-a, coinciding with irregular dry and wet periods, complicating the detection of long-term trends. Here, we synthesize time-series data for historical and recent N loadings (TN, NO2 + NO3), chl-a, floral composition, and net primary productivity (NPP) to distinguish secular changes caused by nutrient over-enrichment from spatio-temporal variability imposed by climatic conditions. Wet years showed higher chl-a, higher diatom abundance, and increased NPP, while dry years showed lower chl-a, lower diatom abundance, and decreased NPP. Our findings support a conceptual model wherein variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics against a backdrop of nutrient over-enrichment, emphasizing the need to separate these effects to gauge progress toward improving water quality in estuaries.

  8. Influence of weather-climatic conditions on biospheric processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Govorushko, S. M.

    2012-12-01

    The significance of meteorological processes and phenomena in the biosphere functioning is revealed. The influence of various weather conditions on human health is considered; the factors and mechanisms of their action are described. The impact of meteorological processes on animals is discussed and concrete examples of such impacts are presented. The influence of meteorological processes and phenomena on plants at different stages of their life (pollination, growth, ripening, transport of seeds, damage, and death) and on some abiotic natural components is shown. It is inferred that weather-climatic conditions have a great influence on biospheric processes.

  9. Climate Twins - a tool to explore future climate impacts by assessing real world conditions: Exploration principles, underlying data, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loibl, Wolfgang; Peters-Anders, Jan; Züger, Johann

    2010-05-01

    To achieve public awareness and thorough understanding about expected climate changes and their future implications, ways have to be found to communicate model outputs to the public in a scientifically sound and easily understandable way. The newly developed Climate Twins tool tries to fulfil these requirements via an intuitively usable web application, which compares spatial patterns of current climate with future climate patterns, derived from regional climate model results. To get a picture of the implications of future climate in an area of interest, users may click on a certain location within an interactive map with underlying future climate information. A second map depicts the matching Climate Twin areas according to current climate conditions. In this way scientific output can be communicated to the public which allows for experiencing climate change through comparison with well-known real world conditions. To identify climatic coincidence seems to be a simple exercise, but the accuracy and applicability of the similarity identification depends very much on the selection of climate indicators, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges. Too many indicators representing various climate characteristics and too narrow uncertainty ranges will judge little or no area as regions with similar climate, while too little indicators and too wide uncertainty ranges will address too large regions as those with similar climate which may not be correct. Similarity cannot be just explored by comparing mean values or by calculating correlation coefficients. As climate change triggers an alteration of various indicators, like maxima, minima, variation magnitude, frequency of extreme events etc., the identification of appropriate similarity conditions is a crucial question to be solved. For Climate Twins identification, it is necessary to find a right balance of indicators, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges, unless the results will be too vague conducting a

  10. Diverging responses of tropical Andean biomes under future climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Tovar, Carolina; Arnillas, Carlos Alberto; Cuesta, Francisco; Buytaert, Wouter

    2013-01-01

    Observations and projections for mountain regions show a strong tendency towards upslope displacement of their biomes under future climate conditions. Because of their climatic and topographic heterogeneity, a more complex response is expected for biodiversity hotspots such as tropical mountain regions. This study analyzes potential changes in the distribution of biomes in the Tropical Andes and identifies target areas for conservation. Biome distribution models were developed using logistic regressions. These models were then coupled to an ensemble of 8 global climate models to project future distribution of the Andean biomes and their uncertainties. We analysed projected changes in extent and elevational range and identified regions most prone to change. Our results show a heterogeneous response to climate change. Although the wetter biomes exhibit an upslope displacement of both the upper and the lower boundaries as expected, most dry biomes tend to show downslope expansion. Despite important losses being projected for several biomes, projections suggest that between 74.8% and 83.1% of the current total Tropical Andes will remain stable, depending on the emission scenario and time horizon. Between 3.3% and 7.6% of the study area is projected to change, mostly towards an increase in vertical structure. For the remaining area (13.1%-17.4%), there is no agreement between model projections. These results challenge the common believe that climate change will lead to an upslope displacement of biome boundaries in mountain regions. Instead, our models project diverging responses, including downslope expansion and large areas projected to remain stable. Lastly, a significant part of the area expected to change is already affected by land use changes, which has important implications for management. This, and the inclusion of a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, will help to inform conservation strategies in the Tropical Andes, and to guide similar assessments for other

  11. Diverging Responses of Tropical Andean Biomes under Future Climate Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Tovar, Carolina; Arnillas, Carlos Alberto; Cuesta, Francisco; Buytaert, Wouter

    2013-01-01

    Observations and projections for mountain regions show a strong tendency towards upslope displacement of their biomes under future climate conditions. Because of their climatic and topographic heterogeneity, a more complex response is expected for biodiversity hotspots such as tropical mountain regions. This study analyzes potential changes in the distribution of biomes in the Tropical Andes and identifies target areas for conservation. Biome distribution models were developed using logistic regressions. These models were then coupled to an ensemble of 8 global climate models to project future distribution of the Andean biomes and their uncertainties. We analysed projected changes in extent and elevational range and identified regions most prone to change. Our results show a heterogeneous response to climate change. Although the wetter biomes exhibit an upslope displacement of both the upper and the lower boundaries as expected, most dry biomes tend to show downslope expansion. Despite important losses being projected for several biomes, projections suggest that between 74.8% and 83.1% of the current total Tropical Andes will remain stable, depending on the emission scenario and time horizon. Between 3.3% and 7.6% of the study area is projected to change, mostly towards an increase in vertical structure. For the remaining area (13.1%–17.4%), there is no agreement between model projections. These results challenge the common believe that climate change will lead to an upslope displacement of biome boundaries in mountain regions. Instead, our models project diverging responses, including downslope expansion and large areas projected to remain stable. Lastly, a significant part of the area expected to change is already affected by land use changes, which has important implications for management. This, and the inclusion of a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, will help to inform conservation strategies in the Tropical Andes, and to guide similar assessments for

  12. Breeding crops for improved mineral nutrition under climate change conditions.

    PubMed

    Pilbeam, David J

    2015-06-01

    Improvements in understanding how climate change may influence chemical and physical processes in soils, how this may affect nutrient availability, and how plants may respond to changed availability of nutrients will influence crop breeding programmes. The effects of increased atmospheric CO2 and warmer temperatures, both individually and combined, on soil microbial activity, including mycorrhizas and N-fixing organisms, are evaluated, together with their implications for nutrient availability. Potential changes to plant growth, and the combined effects of soil and plant changes on nutrient uptake, are discussed. The organization of research on the efficient use of macro- and micronutrients by crops under climate change conditions is outlined, including analysis of QTLs for nutrient efficiency. Suggestions for how the information gained can be used in plant breeding programmes are given.

  13. Multidecadal climate and seasonal snow conditions in Svalbard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pelt, W. J. J.; Kohler, J.; Liston, G. E.; Hagen, J. O.; Luks, B.; Reijmer, C. H.; Pohjola, V. A.

    2016-11-01

    Svalbard climate is undergoing amplified change with respect to the global mean. Changing climate conditions directly affect the evolution of the seasonal snowpack, through its impact on accumulation, melt, and moisture exchange. We analyze long-term trends and spatial patterns of seasonal snow conditions in Svalbard between 1961 and 2012. Downscaled regional climate model output is used to drive a snow modeling system (SnowModel), with coupled modules simulating the surface energy balance and snowpack evolution. The precipitation forcing is calibrated and validated against snow depth data on a set of glaciers around Svalbard. Climate trends reveal seasonally inhomogeneous warming and a weakly positive precipitation trend, with strongest changes in the north. In response to autumn warming the date of snow onset increased (2 days decade-1), whereas in spring/summer opposing effects cause a nonsignificant trend in the snow disappearance date. Maximum snow water equivalent (SWE) in winter/spring shows a modest increase (+0.01 meters water equivalent (mwe) decade-1), while the end-of-summer minimum snow area fraction declined strongly (from 48% to 36%). The equilibrium line altitude is highest in relatively dry inland regions, and time series show a clear positive trend (25 m decade-1) as a result of summer warming. Finally, rain-on-snow in the core winter season, affecting ground ice formation and limiting access of grazing animals to food supplies, peaks during specific years (1994, 1996, 2000, and 2012) and is found to be concentrated in the lower lying coastal regions in southwestern Svalbard.

  14. Adverse Events of Massage Therapy in Pain-Related Conditions: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Yin, Ping; Gao, Ningyang; Wu, Junyi; Xu, Shifen

    2014-01-01

    Pain-related massage, important in traditional Eastern medicine, is increasingly used in the Western world. So the widening acceptance demands continual safety assessment. This review is an evaluation of the frequency and severity of adverse events (AEs) reported mainly for pain-related massage between 2003 and 2013. Relevant all-languages reports in 6 databases were identified and assessed by two coauthors. During the 11-year period, 40 reports of 138 AEs were associated with massage. Author, year of publication, country of occurrence, participant related (age, sex) or number of patients affected, the details of manual therapy, and clinician type were extracted. Disc herniation, soft tissue trauma, neurologic compromise, spinal cord injury, dissection of the vertebral arteries, and others were the main complications of massage. Spinal manipulation in massage has repeatedly been associated with serious AEs especially. Clearly, massage therapies are not totally devoid of risks. But the incidence of such events is low. PMID:25197310

  15. 30 CFR 585.816 - What must I do if environmental or other conditions adversely affect a cable, pipeline, or facility?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... conditions adversely affect a cable, pipeline, or facility? 585.816 Section 585.816 Mineral Resources BUREAU... affect a cable, pipeline, or facility? If environmental or other conditions adversely affect a cable, pipeline, or facility so as to endanger the safety or the environment, you must: (a) Submit a plan...

  16. 30 CFR 585.816 - What must I do if environmental or other conditions adversely affect a cable, pipeline, or facility?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... conditions adversely affect a cable, pipeline, or facility? 585.816 Section 585.816 Mineral Resources BUREAU... affect a cable, pipeline, or facility? If environmental or other conditions adversely affect a cable, pipeline, or facility so as to endanger the safety or the environment, you must: (a) Submit a plan...

  17. 30 CFR 585.816 - What must I do if environmental or other conditions adversely affect a cable, pipeline, or facility?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... conditions adversely affect a cable, pipeline, or facility? 585.816 Section 585.816 Mineral Resources BUREAU... affect a cable, pipeline, or facility? If environmental or other conditions adversely affect a cable, pipeline, or facility so as to endanger the safety or the environment, you must: (a) Submit a plan...

  18. Physiological and genetic analysis of Arabidopsis thaliana anthocyanin biosynthesis mutants under chronic adverse environmental conditions.

    PubMed

    Misyura, Maksym; Colasanti, Joseph; Rothstein, Steven J

    2013-01-01

    Anthocyanin production is a characteristic response of flowering plants to unfavourable environmental conditions. The potential roles of flavonoids and anthocyanins in plant growth were investigated by growing Arabidopsis thaliana anthocyanin production mutants (transparent testa) under limiting nitrogen and high light conditions. Inability to produce kaempferol or subsequent intermediate compounds by some transparent testa lines was correlated with less biomass accumulation in mature plants compared with wild-type control plants under all growth conditions tested. However, under both limiting nitrogen and high light chronic stress conditions, mutant lines defective in later steps of the anthocyanin production pathway produced the same or more biomass than wild-type plants. No difference in senescence between transparent testa and wild-type plants was found using chlorophyll catabolism and SAG12 expression measurements, and no mutants were impaired in the ability to remobilize nutrients from the vegetative to reproductive tissues. Moreover, the absence of anthocyanin and/or upstream flavonoids does not affect the ability of plants to respond to limiting nitrogen by reducing photosynthetic capacity. These results support a role for kaempferol and quercetin accumulation in normal plant growth and development. Further, the absence of anthocyanins has no effect on plant growth under the chronic stress conditions tested.

  19. Physiological and genetic analysis of Arabidopsis thaliana anthocyanin biosynthesis mutants under chronic adverse environmental conditions

    PubMed Central

    Rothstein, Steven J.

    2013-01-01

    Anthocyanin production is a characteristic response of flowering plants to unfavourable environmental conditions. The potential roles of flavonoids and anthocyanins in plant growth were investigated by growing Arabidopsis thaliana anthocyanin production mutants (transparent testa) under limiting nitrogen and high light conditions. Inability to produce kaempferol or subsequent intermediate compounds by some transparent testa lines was correlated with less biomass accumulation in mature plants compared with wild-type control plants under all growth conditions tested. However, under both limiting nitrogen and high light chronic stress conditions, mutant lines defective in later steps of the anthocyanin production pathway produced the same or more biomass than wild-type plants. No difference in senescence between transparent testa and wild-type plants was found using chlorophyll catabolism and SAG12 expression measurements, and no mutants were impaired in the ability to remobilize nutrients from the vegetative to reproductive tissues. Moreover, the absence of anthocyanin and/or upstream flavonoids does not affect the ability of plants to respond to limiting nitrogen by reducing photosynthetic capacity. These results support a role for kaempferol and quercetin accumulation in normal plant growth and development. Further, the absence of anthocyanins has no effect on plant growth under the chronic stress conditions tested. PMID:23162120

  20. Adverse foraging conditions may impact body mass and survival of a high Arctic seabird

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harding, A.M.A.; Welcker, J.; Steen, H.; Hamer, K.C.; Kitaysky, A.S.; Fort, J.; Talbot, S.L.; Cornick, L.A.; Karnovsky, N.J.; Gabrielsen, G.W.; Gremillet, D.

    2011-01-01

    Tradeoffs between current reproduction and future survival are widely recognized, but may only occur when food is limited: when foraging conditions are favorable, parents may be able to reproduce without compromising their own survival. We investigated these tradeoffs in the little auk (Alle alle), a small seabird with a single-egg clutch. During 2005-2007, we examined the relationship between body mass and survival of birds breeding under contrasting foraging conditions at two Arctic colonies. We used corticosterone levels of breeding adults as a physiological indicator of the foraging conditions they encountered during each reproductive season. We found that when foraging conditions were relatively poor (as reflected in elevated levels of corticosterone), parents ended the reproductive season with low body mass and suffered increased post-breeding mortality. A positive relationship between body mass and post-breeding survival was found in one study year; light birds incurred higher survival costs than heavy birds. The results of this study suggest that reproducing under poor foraging conditions may affect the post-breeding survival of long-lived little auks. They also have important demographic implications because even a small change in adult survival may have a large effect on populations of long-lived species. ?? 2011 Springer-Verlag.

  1. Impacts of peatland forestation on regional climate conditions in Finland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Yao; Markkanen, Tiina; Backman, Leif; Henttonen, Helena M.; Pietikäinen, Joni-Pekka; Laaksonen, Ari

    2014-05-01

    Climate response to anthropogenic land cover change happens more locally and occurs on a shorter time scale than the global warming due to increased GHGs. Over the second half of last Century, peatlands were vastly drained in Finland to stimulate forest growth for timber production. In this study, we investigate the biophysical effects of peatland forestation on near-surface climate conditions in Finland. For this, the regional climate model REMO, developed in Max Plank Institute (currently in Climate Service Center, Germany), provides an effective way. Two sets of 15-year climate simulations were done by REMO, using the historic (1920s; The 1st Finnish National Forest Inventory) and present-day (2000s; the 10th Finnish National Forest Inventory) land cover maps, respectively. The simulated surface air temperature and precipitation were then analyzed. In the most intensive peatland forestation area in Finland, the differences in monthly averaged daily mean surface air temperature show a warming effect around 0.2 to 0.3 K in February and March and reach to 0.5 K in April, whereas a slight cooling effect, less than 0.2 K, is found from May till October. Consequently, the selected snow clearance dates in model gridboxes over that area are advanced 0.5 to 4 days in the mean of 15 years. The monthly averaged precipitation only shows small differences, less than 10 mm/month, in a varied pattern in Finland from April to September. Furthermore, a more detailed analysis was conducted on the peatland forestation area with a 23% decrease in peatland and a 15% increase in forest types. 11 day running means of simulated temperature and energy balance terms, as well as snow depth were averaged over 15 years. Results show a positive feedback induced by peatland forestation between the surface air temperature and snow depth in snow melting period. This is because the warmer temperature caused by lower surface albedo due to more forest in snow cover period leads to a quicker and

  2. Use of a driving simulator to assess performance under adverse weather conditions in adults with albinism.

    PubMed

    Hofman, Gwen M; Summers, C Gail; Ward, Nicholas; Bhargava, Esha; Rakauskas, Michael E; Holleschau, Ann M

    2012-04-01

    Participants with albinism have reduced vision and nystagmus with reduced foveation times. This prospective study evaluated driving in 12 participants with albinism and 12 matched controls. Participants drove a vehicle simulator through a virtual rural course in sunny and foggy conditions. Under sunny conditions, participants with albinism showed a narrower preferred minimum safety boundary during car-following tasks than did controls, but there was no difference under foggy conditions. Their driving did not differ significantly from that of controls when approaching a stop sign or when choosing gap size between oncoming vehicles when crossing an intersection. However, when compared to control drivers, participants with albinism had a decreased minimum safety boundary for car-following that should be included in counseling regarding driving safety.

  3. Contact mechanics of modular metal-on-polyethylene total hip replacement under adverse edge loading conditions.

    PubMed

    Hua, Xijin; Li, Junyan; Wang, Ling; Jin, Zhongmin; Wilcox, Ruth; Fisher, John

    2014-10-17

    Edge loading can negatively impact the biomechanics and long-term performance of hip replacements. Although edge loading has been widely investigated for hard-on-hard articulations, limited work has been conducted for hard-on-soft combinations. The aim of the present study was to investigate edge loading and its effect on the contact mechanics of a modular metal-on-polyethylene (MoP) total hip replacement (THR). A three-dimensional finite element model was developed based on a modular MoP bearing. Different cup inclination angles and head lateral microseparation were modelled and their effect on the contact mechanics of the modular MoP hip replacement were examined. The results showed that lateral microseparation caused loading of the head on the rim of the cup, which produced substantial increases in the maximum von Mises stress in the polyethylene liner and the maximum contact pressure on both the articulating surface and backside surface of the liner. Plastic deformation of the liner was observed under both standard conditions and microseparation conditions, however, the maximum equivalent plastic strain in the liner under microseparation conditions of 2000 µm was predicted to be approximately six times that under standard conditions. The study has indicated that correct positioning the components to avoid edge loading is likely to be important clinically even for hard-on-soft bearings for THR.

  4. 7 CFR 760.203 - Eligible losses, adverse weather, and other loss conditions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... condition, as determined by the Deputy Administrator, including, but not limited to, earthquake, excessive..., earthquake, excessive wind, flood, hurricane, tornado, volcanic eruption, and wildfire. To be eligible for a... limited to, an earthquake, flood, hurricane, tidal surge, tornado, and volcanic eruption....

  5. 7 CFR 760.203 - Eligible losses, adverse weather, and other loss conditions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... limited to, earthquake, excessive wind, flood, hurricane, tidal surge, tornado, volcanic eruption, and... limited to, earthquake, excessive wind, flood, hurricane, tornado, volcanic eruption, and wildfire. To be... loss condition as determined by the Deputy Administrator including, but not limited to, an...

  6. 7 CFR 760.203 - Eligible losses, adverse weather, and other loss conditions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... condition, as determined by the Deputy Administrator, including, but not limited to, earthquake, excessive..., earthquake, excessive wind, flood, hurricane, tornado, volcanic eruption, and wildfire. To be eligible for a... determined by the Deputy Administrator including, but not limited to, an earthquake, flood, hurricane,...

  7. Analysis and mapping of present and future drought conditions over Greek areas with different climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Maris, Fotios; Weiler, Markus; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2016-10-01

    Estimation of drought in a certain temporal and spatial scale is crucial in climate change studies. The current study targets on three agricultural areas widespread in Greece, Ardas River Basin in Northeastern Greece, Sperchios River Basin in Central Greece, and Geropotamos River Basin in Crete Island in South Greece that are characterized by diverse climates as they are located in various regions. The objective is to assess the spatiotemporal variation of drought conditions prevailing in these areas. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to identify and assess the present and future drought conditions. Future simulated data were derived from a number of Regional Climatic Models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES European Project. The analysis was performed for the future periods of 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, implementing A1B and B1 scenarios. The spatial analysis of the drought conditions was performed using a combined downscaling technique and the Ordinary Kriging. The Mann-Kendall test was implemented for trend investigation. During both periods and scenarios, drought conditions will tend to be more severe in the upcoming years. The decrease of the SPI values in the Sperchios River Basin is expected to be the strongest, as it is the only study area that will show a negative balance (in SPI values), regarding the drought conditions. For the Ardas and the Geropotamos River Basins, a great increase of the drought conditions will occur during the 2021-2050 period, while for 2071-2100 period, the decrease will continue but it will be tempered. Nevertheless, the situation in all study areas according to the SPI classification is characterized as "Near-normal", in terms of drought conditions.

  8. The influence of convection parameterisations under alternate climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rybka, Harald; Tost, Holger

    2013-04-01

    In the last decades several convection parameterisations have been developed to consider the impact of small-scale unresolved processes in Earth System Models associated with convective clouds. Global model simulations, which have been performed under current climate conditions with different convection schemes, significantly differ among each other in the simulated precipitation patterns due to the parameterisation assumptions and formulations, e.g. the simplified treatment of the cloud microphysics. Additionally, the simulated transport of short-lived trace gases strongly depends on the chosen convection parameterisation due to the differences in the vertical redistribution of mass. Furthermore, other meteorological parameters like the temperature or the specific humidity show substantial differences in convectively active regions. This study presents uncertainties of climate change scenarios caused by different convection parameterisations. For this analysis two experiments (reference simulation with a CO2 concentration of 348 ppm; 2xCO2-simulation with a CO2 concentration of 696 ppm) are calculated with the ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry (EMAC) model applying four different convection schemes (Tiedtke, ECMWF, Emanuel and Zhang-McFarlane - Hack) and two resolutions (T42 and T63), respectively. The results indicate that the equilibrium climate sensitivity is independent of the chosen convection parameterisation. However, the regional temperature increase, induced by a doubling of the carbon dioxide concentration, demonstrates differences of up to a few Kelvin at the surface as well as in the UTLS for the ITCZ region depending on the selected convection parameterisation. The interaction between cloud and convection parameterisations results in a large disagreement of precipitation patterns. Although every 2xCO2 -experiment simulates an increase in global mean precipitation rates, the change of regional precipitation patterns differ widely. Finally, analysing

  9. Comparison of Infrared and Millimeter-Wave Imager Performance in Adverse Weather Conditions

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1997-12-01

    area, which were used as inputs to Acquire, are different than the Johnson criteria default value of 0.75 and the target area used by Wikner † in his MMW...target is 3 × 3 m. 5 2.3 Weather Analysis Method for MMW Systems The results of this section are taken from Wikner [3]. His assumptions are in table...Science and Technology Division, Arlington, VA (1979). 3. D. Wikner , Prediction of 94 GHz Radiometer Performance in Various Environ- mental Condition

  10. A study of different indicators of Maillard reaction with whey proteins and different carbohydrates under adverse storage conditions.

    PubMed

    Leiva, Graciela E; Naranjo, Gabriela B; Malec, Laura S

    2017-01-15

    This study examined different indicators of each stage of Maillard reaction under adverse storage conditions in a system with whey proteins and lactose or glucose. The analysis of lysine loss by the o-phthaldialdehyde method can be considered a good indicator of the early stage, showing considerable differences in reactivity when systems with mono and disaccharides were analyzed. Capillary electrophoresis proved to be a sensitive method for evaluating the extent of glycosylation of the native proteins, providing valuable information when the loss of lysine was not significant. The estimation of the Amadori compound from the determination of total 5-hydroxymethyl-2-furfuraldehyde would have correlate well with reactive lysine content if the advanced stages of the reaction had not been reached. For assessing the occurrence of the intermediate and final stages, the measurement of free 5-hydroxymethyl-2-furfuraldehyde and color, proved not to be suitable for storage conditions.

  11. Active imaging systems to see through adverse conditions: Light-scattering based models and experimental validation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riviere, Nicolas; Ceolato, Romain; Hespel, Laurent

    2014-10-01

    Onera, the French aerospace lab, develops and models active imaging systems to understand the relevant physical phenomena affecting these systems performance. As a consequence, efforts have been done on the propagation of a pulse through the atmosphere and on target geometries and surface properties. These imaging systems must operate at night in all ambient illumination and weather conditions in order to perform strategic surveillance for various worldwide operations. We have implemented codes for 2D and 3D laser imaging systems. As we aim to image a scene in the presence of rain, snow, fog or haze, we introduce such light-scattering effects in our numerical models and compare simulated images with measurements provided by commercial laser scanners.

  12. Communicating Vulnerabilities to Climate Change: Existing Health Conditions

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    View and download fact sheets that highlight the health impacts of climate change at different stages of life and for certain populations of concern, as well as communications materials to help strengthen conversations about climate change and health.

  13. Blind spots and adverse conditions of care: screening migrants for tuberculosis in France and Germany.

    PubMed

    Kehr, Janina

    2012-02-01

    Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease that declined significantly throughout the 20(th) century. Large-scale TB screening of entire populations in France and Germany has thus been replaced by active screening of risk-groups, particularly migrants. The article engages with its problems and practices on three levels: by looking at the way information on migrants as an at-risk group is produced through disease surveillance data; by analysing how such at-risk group data influence local screening practices; and by showing which political and medical problems arise in the field. I overturn the discussion about screening and surveillance of migrants as a risk-group by showing that it is not the stigmatisation of migrants through disease risk that is most at stake, but the invisibility of the most vulnerable among them in disease surveillance data and the way restrictive national immigration policies interfere with and subvert local screening and treatment practices targeting them. The aim of my article is to promote a pragmatic sociology of screening, while paying attention to the practical complexities, political conditions and medical ambivalences of screening and follow-up care, especially when the migrant groups concerned are socially, politically and medically vulnerable.

  14. Structural Brain Network Reorganization and Social Cognition Related to Adverse Perinatal Condition from Infancy to Early Adolescence

    PubMed Central

    Muñoz-Moreno, Emma; Fischi-Gomez, Elda; Batalle, Dafnis; Borradori-Tolsa, Cristina; Eixarch, Elisenda; Thiran, Jean-Philippe; Gratacós, Eduard; Hüppi, Petra S.

    2016-01-01

    Adverse conditions during fetal life have been associated to both structural and functional changes in neurodevelopment from the neonatal period to adolescence. In this study, connectomics was used to assess the evolution of brain networks from infancy to early adolescence. Brain network reorganization over time in subjects who had suffered adverse perinatal conditions is characterized and related to neurodevelopment and cognition. Three cohorts of prematurely born infants and children (between 28 and 35 weeks of gestational age), including individuals with a birth weight appropriated for gestational age and with intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR), were evaluated at 1, 6, and 10 years of age, respectively. A common developmental trajectory of brain networks was identified in both control and IUGR groups: network efficiencies of the fractional anisotropy (FA)-weighted and normalized connectomes increase with age, which can be related to maturation and myelination of fiber connections while the number of connections decreases, which can be associated to an axonal pruning process and reorganization. Comparing subjects with or without IUGR, a similar pattern of network differences between groups was observed in the three developmental stages, mainly characterized by IUGR group having reduced brain network efficiencies in binary and FA-weighted connectomes and increased efficiencies in the connectome normalized by its total connection strength (FA). Associations between brain networks and neurobehavioral impairments were also evaluated showing a relationship between different network metrics and specific social cognition-related scores, as well as a higher risk of inattention/hyperactivity and/or executive functional disorders in IUGR children. PMID:28008304

  15. Icing Conditions Over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulygina, O.; Arzhanova, N.; Groisman, P. Y.

    2013-12-01

    Climate of the Russian Federation for the national territory. This Reference Book addresses the current state of these weather phenomena. However, the ongoing and projected humidity changes in the high latitudes will strongly affect the circum-polar area (land and ocean) and impact the frequency and intensity of these potentially dangerous weather phenomena across the entire extratropical land area. Therefore the goal of the present study is to quantify icing conditions over the northern Eurasia. Our analysis includes data of 958 Russian stations from 1977 to 2012. Regional analysis of gololed characteristics was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Maps (climatology, trends) are presented mostly for visualization purposes. The area-averaging technique using station values converted to anomalies with respect to a common reference period (in this study, from 1977 to 2012). Anomalies were arithmetically averaged first within 1N x 2E grid cells and thereafter by a weighted average value derived over the quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. This approach provides a more uniform spatial field for averaging.

  16. Icing conditions over Northern Eurasia in changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulygina, Olga N.; Arzhanova, Natalia M.; Groisman, Pavel Ya

    2015-02-01

    Icing conditions, particularly in combination with wind, affect greatly the operation of overhead communication and transmission lines causing serious failures, which result in tremendous economic damage. Icing formation is dangerous to agriculture, forestry, high seas fishery, for land and off coast man-made infrastructure. Quantitative icing characteristics such as weight, thickness, and duration are very important for the economy and human wellbeing when their maximum values exceed certain thresholds. Russian meteorological stations perform both visual and instrumental monitoring of icing deposits. Visual monitoring is ocular estimation of the type and intensity of icing and the date of ice appearance and disappearance. Instrumental monitoring is performed by ice accretion indicator that in addition to the type, intensity and duration of ice deposits reports also their weight and size. We used observations at 958 Russian stations for the period 1977-2013 to analyze changes in the ice formation frequency at individual meteorological stations and on the territory of quasi-homogeneous climatic regions in Russia. It was found that hoar frosts are observed in most parts of Russia, but icing only occurs in European Russia and the Far East. On the Arctic coast of Russia, this phenomenon can even be observed in summer months. Statistically significant decreasing trends in occurrence of icing and hoar frost events are found over most of Russia. An increasing trend in icing weights (IWs) was found in the Atlantic Arctic region in autumn. Statistically significant large negative trends in IWs were found in the Pacific Arctic in winter and spring.

  17. Climate-based health monitoring systems for eco-climatic conditions associated with infectious diseases.

    PubMed

    Pinzon, E; Wilson, J M; Tucker, C J

    2005-09-01

    Despite a century of confidence and optimism in modern medicine and technology inspired by their often successful prevention and control efforts, infectious diseases remain an omnipresent, conspicuous major challenge to public health. Effective detection and control of infectious diseases require predictive and proactive efficient methods that provide early warning of an epidemic activity. Of particular relevance to these efforts is linking information at the landscape and coarser scales to data at the scale of the epidemic activity. In recent years, landscape epidemiology has used satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems as the technology capable of providing, from local to global scales, spatial and temporal climatic patterns that may influence the intensity of a vector-borne disease and predicts risk conditions associated with an epidemic. This article provides a condensed, and selective look at classical material and recent research about remote sensing and GIS (geographic information system) applications in public health.

  18. The Cpx system of Escherichia coli, a strategic signaling pathway for confronting adverse conditions and for settling biofilm communities?

    PubMed

    Dorel, Corinne; Lejeune, Philippe; Rodrigue, Agnès

    2006-05-01

    Amongst the thirty or so two-component systems known in Escherichia coli, the Cpx system has been described as being a stress response system the main function of which is to respond to damage to the cell envelope via activation of proteases and folding catalysts. Nevertheless, the size of the Cpx regulon (several dozens of target genes) and the diversity of the physiological functions associated with it (resistance to hostile conditions, mobility, adherence factors, metabolism, etc.) indicate that the role of Cpx in cell physiology is undoubtedly more complex. The range of cellular functions affected by activation of the Cpx pathway corresponds quite closely to the description of the physiological state of cells grown in biofilms. We suggest that Cpx is a strategic signaling pathway for facing adverse conditions and for settling biofilm communities. Current knowledge of the regulatory mechanisms of the CpxR response (transcriptional and post-transcriptional) and the interactions between CpxR and the other bacterial regulatory systems are presented.

  19. Reported respiratory symptoms and adverse home conditions after 9/11 among residents living near the World Trade Center.

    PubMed

    Lin, Shao; Jones, Rena; Reibman, Joan; Bowers, James; Fitzgerald, Edward F; Hwang, Syni-An

    2007-05-01

    This study investigated whether self-reported damage, dust, and odors in homes near the World Trade Center (WTC) after September 11, 2001, were related to increased rates of respiratory symptoms among residents and if multiple sources of exposure were associated with greater health risk. We mailed questionnaires to homes within 1.5 km of the WTC site (affected area) and in upper Manhattan (control area). Surveys asked about respiratory symptoms, unplanned medical visits, physician diagnoses, medication use, and conditions in the home after 9/11. Adverse home conditions were associated with new-onset (i.e., began after 9/11) and persistent (i.e., remained 1 year after 9/11) upper and lower respiratory symptoms in the affected area (Cumulative Incidence Ratios [CIRs] 1.20-1.71). Residents reporting longer duration of dust/odors or multiple sources of exposure had greater risk for symptoms compared to those reporting shorter duration and fewer sources. These data suggest that WTC-related contamination in the home after 9/11 was associated with new and persistent respiratory symptoms among residents living near the site. While we cannot eliminate potential biases related to self-reported data, we took strategies to minimize their impact, and the observed effects are biologically plausible.

  20. Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change.

    PubMed

    Trnka, Miroslav; Hlavinka, Petr; Semenov, Mikhail A

    2015-11-06

    Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions.

  1. Clinical profiles of adverse drug reactions spontaneously reported at a single Korean hospital dedicated to children with complex chronic conditions

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Bomi; Kim, Sunwha Zara; Lee, Jin; Jung, Ae Hee; Jung, Sun-Hoi; Hahn, Hyeon-Joo; Kang, Hye Ryun

    2017-01-01

    Children with complex chronic conditions (CCC) are presumed to be vulnerable to adverse drug reactions (ADRs). The clinical profiles of ADRs in CCC are not well known. Herein, we aim to describe the ADR profiles in CCC with regard to typical presentations and vulnerable groups. We accessed the ADR yearly reports at a tertiary children's hospital whose practice is mainly dedicated to CCC and descriptively analyzed their clinical profiles according to the presence of a complex chronic condition, ADR severity, and age groups. A total of 1841 cases were analyzed, among which 1258 (68.3%) were mild, 493 (26.8%) moderate, and 90 (4.9%) cases were severe. A total of 1581 (85.9%) cases of complex chronic condition were reported. The proportion of CCC in each severity group increased as the ADR becomes more severe. In CCC, ADRs were most frequently reported by nurses in the adolescent group and in cases where the symptoms involved the gastrointestinal system. The class of antineoplastic and immunomodulating drugs was the most commonly suspected of causing an ADR, followed by one of the antibiotics. When we focus on the trend across the age groups, the ratio of severe-to-total ADRs decreased with older age. Among severe cases, the ratio of off-label prescription-related cases was the highest in the infant/toddler group and decreased as the groups aged. In conclusion, ADRs of CCCs admitted to a tertiary children’s hospital have a unique profile. These groups are vulnerable to ADRs and thus they should be monitored closely, especially when they are infants or toddlers, so that severe ADRs can be identified and treated immediately. PMID:28199420

  2. Climate change impact on shallow groundwater conditions in Hungary: Conclusions from a regional modelling study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kovács, Attila; Marton, Annamária; Tóth, György; Szöcs, Teodóra

    2016-04-01

    A quantitative methodology has been developed for the calculation of groundwater table based on measured and simulated climate parameters. The aim of the study was to develop a toolset which can be used for the calculation of shallow groundwater conditions for various climate scenarios. This was done with the goal of facilitating the assessment of climate impact and vulnerability of shallow groundwater resources. The simulated groundwater table distributions are representative of groundwater conditions at the regional scale. The introduced methodology is valid for modelling purposes at various scales and thus represents a versatile tool for the assessment of climate vulnerability of shallow groundwater bodies. The calculation modules include the following: 1. A toolset to calculate climate zonation from climate parameter grids, 2. Delineation of recharge zones (Hydrological Response Units, HRUs) based on geology, landuse and slope conditions, 3. Calculation of percolation (recharge) rates using 1D analytical hydrological models, 4. Simulation of the groundwater table using numerical groundwater flow models. The applied methodology provides a quantitative link between climate conditions and shallow groundwater conditions, and thus can be used for assessing climate impacts. The climate data source applied in our calculation comprised interpolated daily climate data of the Central European CARPATCLIM database. Climate zones were determined making use of the Thorntwaite climate zonation scheme. Recharge zones (HRUs) were determined based on surface geology, landuse and slope conditions. The HELP hydrological model was used for the calculation of 1D water balance for hydrological response units. The MODFLOW numerical groundwater modelling code was used for the calculation of the water table. The developed methodology was demonstrated through the simulation of regional groundwater table using spatially averaged climate data and hydrogeological properties for various time

  3. Health surveillance under adverse ergonomics conditions--validity of a screening method adapted for the occupational health service.

    PubMed

    Jonker, Dirk; Gustafsson, Ewa; Rolander, Bo; Arvidsson, Inger; Nordander, Catarina

    2015-01-01

    A new health surveillance protocol for work-related upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders has been validated by comparing the results with a reference protocol. The studied protocol, Health Surveillance in Adverse Ergonomics Conditions (HECO), is a new version of the reference protocol modified for application in the Occupational Health Service (OHS). The HECO protocol contains both a screening part and a diagnosing part. Sixty-three employees were examined. The screening in HECO did not miss any diagnosis found when using the reference protocol, but in comparison to the reference protocol considerable time savings could be achieved. Fair to good agreement between the protocols was obtained for one or more diagnoses in neck/shoulders (86%, k = 0.62) and elbow/hands (84%, k = 0.49). Therefore, the results obtained using the HECO protocol can be compared with a reference material collected with the reference protocol, and thus provide information of the magnitude of disorders in an examined work group. Practitioner Summary: The HECO protocol is a relatively simple physical examination protocol for identification of musculoskeletal disorders in the neck and upper extremities. The protocol is a reliable and cost-effective tool for the OHS to use for occupational health surveillance in order to detect workplaces at high risk for developing musculoskeletal disorders.

  4. Does the Size of the Effect of Adverse Events at High Ages on Daily-Life Physical Functioning Depend on the Economic Conditions Around Birth?

    PubMed

    Scholte, Robert; van den Berg, Gerard J; Lindeboom, Maarten; Deeg, Dorly J H

    2017-01-01

    This paper considers determinants of physical functional limitations in daily-life activities at high ages. Specifically, we quantify the extent to which the impact of adverse life events on this outcome is larger in case of exposure to adverse economic conditions early in life. Adverse life events include bereavement, severe illness in the family, and the onset of chronic diseases. We use a longitudinal data set of individuals born in the first decades of the 20th century. The business cycle around birth is used as an indicator of economic conditions early in life. We find that the extent to which functional limitations suffer from the onset of chronic diseases is larger if the individual was born in a recession. The long-run effect of economic conditions early in life on functional limitations at high ages runs primarily via this life event. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. Assessment of mycotoxin risk on corn in the Philippines under current and future climate change conditions.

    PubMed

    Salvacion, Arnold R; Pangga, Ireneo B; Cumagun, Christian Joseph R

    2015-01-01

    This study attempts to assess the risk of mycotoxins (aflatoxins and fumonisins) contamination on corn in the Philippines under current and projected climate change conditions using fuzzy logic methodology based on the published range of temperature and rainfall conditions that favor mycotoxin development. Based on the analysis, projected climatic change will reduce the risk of aflatoxin contamination in the country due to increased rainfall. In the case of fumonisin contamination, most parts of the country are at a very high risk both under current conditions and the projected climate change conditions.

  6. Ecosystem resilience despite large-scale altered hydro climatic conditions

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change is predicted to increase both drought frequency and duration, and when coupled with substantial warming, will establish a new hydroclimatological paradigm for many regions. Large-scale, warm droughts have recently impacted North America, Africa, Europe, Amazonia, and Australia result...

  7. Climatic conditions in northern Canada: past and future.

    PubMed

    Prowse, Terry D; Furgal, Chris; Bonsal, Barrie R; Edwards, Thomas W D

    2009-07-01

    This article reviews the historical, instrumental, and future changes in climate for the northern latitudes of Canada. Discussion of historical climate over the last 10 000 years focuses on major climatic shifts including the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, and how these changes compare with those most recently experienced during the period of instrumental records. In reference to the latter, details are noted about observed trends in temperature and precipitation that have been recorded over the last half century, which exhibit strong west to east and north to south spatial contrasts. A comprehensive review of future changes is also provided based on outputs from seven atmosphere-ocean global climate models and six emission scenarios. Discussion focuses on annual, seasonal, and related spatial changes for three 30-year periods centered on the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. In summary, substantial changes to temperature and precipitation are projected for the Canadian North during the twenty-first century. Although there is considerable variability within the various projections, all scenarios show higher temperature and, for the most part, increasing precipitation over the entire region.

  8. Integration of iconic gestures and speech in left superior temporal areas boosts speech comprehension under adverse listening conditions.

    PubMed

    Holle, Henning; Obleser, Jonas; Rueschemeyer, Shirley-Ann; Gunter, Thomas C

    2010-01-01

    Iconic gestures are spontaneous hand movements that illustrate certain contents of speech and, as such, are an important part of face-to-face communication. This experiment targets the brain bases of how iconic gestures and speech are integrated during comprehension. Areas of integration were identified on the basis of two classic properties of multimodal integration, bimodal enhancement and inverse effectiveness (i.e., greater enhancement for unimodally least effective stimuli). Participants underwent fMRI while being presented with videos of gesture-supported sentences as well as their unimodal components, which allowed us to identify areas showing bimodal enhancement. Additionally, we manipulated the signal-to-noise ratio of speech (either moderate or good) to probe for integration areas exhibiting the inverse effectiveness property. Bimodal enhancement was found at the posterior end of the superior temporal sulcus and adjacent superior temporal gyrus (pSTS/STG) in both hemispheres, indicating that the integration of iconic gestures and speech takes place in these areas. Furthermore, we found that the left pSTS/STG specifically showed a pattern of inverse effectiveness, i.e., the neural enhancement for bimodal stimulation was greater under adverse listening conditions. This indicates that activity in this area is boosted when an iconic gesture accompanies an utterance that is otherwise difficult to comprehend. The neural response paralleled the behavioral data observed. The present data extends results from previous gesture-speech integration studies in showing that pSTS/STG plays a key role in the facilitation of speech comprehension through simultaneous gestural input.

  9. Collaborative Research for Water Resource Management under Climate Change Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brundiers, K.; Garfin, G. M.; Gober, P.; Basile, G.; Bark, R. H.

    2010-12-01

    We present an ongoing project to co-produce science and policy called Collaborative Planning for Climate Change: An Integrated Approach to Water-Planning, Climate Downscaling, and Robust Decision-Making. The project responds to motivations related to dealing with sustainability challenges in research and practice: (a) state and municipal water managers seek research that addresses their planning needs; (b) the scientific literature and funding agencies call for more meaningful engagement between science and policy communities, in ways that address user needs, while advancing basic research; and (c) empirical research contributes to methods for the design and implementation of collaborative projects. To understand how climate change might impact water resources and management in the Southwest US, our project convenes local, state, and federal water management practitioners with climate-, hydrology-, policy-, and decision scientists. Three areas of research inform this collaboration: (a) the role of paleo-hydrology in water resources scenario construction; (b) the types of uncertainties that impact decision-making beyond climate and modeling uncertainty; and (c) basin-scale statistical and dynamical downscaling of climate models to generate hydrologic projections for regional water resources planning. The project engages all participants in the research process, from research design to workshops that build capacity for understanding data generation and sources of uncertainty to the discussion of water management decision contexts. A team of “science-practice translators” facilitates the collaboration between academic and professional communities. In this presentation we contextualize the challenges and opportunities of use-inspired science-policy research collaborations by contrasting the initial project design with the process of implementation. We draw from two sources to derive lessons learned: literature on collaborative research, and evaluations provided by

  10. Measurement of heat stress conditions at cow level and comparison to climate conditions at stationary locations inside a dairy barn.

    PubMed

    Schüller, Laura K; Heuwieser, Wolfgang

    2016-08-01

    The objectives of this study were to examine heat stress conditions at cow level and to investigate the relationship to the climate conditions at 5 different stationary locations inside a dairy barn. In addition, we compared the climate conditions at cow level between primiparous and multiparous cows for a period of 1 week after regrouping. The temperature-humidity index (THI) differed significantly between all stationary loggers. The lowest THI was measured at the window logger in the experimental stall and the highest THI was measured at the central logger in the experimental stall. The THI at the mobile cow loggers was 2·33 THI points higher than at the stationary loggers. Furthermore, the mean daily THI was higher at the mobile cow loggers than at the stationary loggers on all experimental days. The THI in the experimental pen was 0·44 THI points lower when the experimental cow group was located inside the milking parlour. The THI measured at the mobile cow loggers was 1·63 THI points higher when the experimental cow group was located inside the milking parlour. However, there was no significant difference for all climate variables between primiparous and multiparous cows. These results indicate, there is a wide range of climate conditions inside a dairy barn and especially areas with a great distance to a fresh air supply have an increased risk for the occurrence of heat stress conditions. Furthermore, the heat stress conditions are even higher at cow level and cows not only influence their climatic environment, but also generate microclimates within different locations inside the barn. Therefore climate conditions should be obtained at cow level to evaluate the heat stress conditions that dairy cows are actually exposed to.

  11. The study of climate suitability for grapevine cropping using ecoclimatic indicators under climatic change conditions in France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, I.; Caubel, J.; Cufi, J.; Huard, F.; Launay, M.; deNoblet, N.

    2013-12-01

    Climatic conditions play a fundamental role in the suitability of geographical areas for cropping. In the case of grape, climatic conditions such as water supply and temperatures have an effect of grape quality. In the context of climate change, we could expect changes in overall climatic conditions and so, in grape quality. We proposed to use GETARI (Generic Evaluation Tool of Ecoclimatic Indicators) in order to assess the future climate suitability of two French sites for grape (Vitis vinifera) regarding its quality. GETARI calculates an overall climate suitability index at the annual scale, from a designed evaluation tree. This aggregation tool proposes the major ecophysiological processes taking place during phenological periods, together with the climatic effects that are known to affect their achievement. The effects of climate on the ecophysiological processes are captured by the ecoclimatic indicators, which are agroclimatic indicators calculated over phenological periods. They give information about crop response to climate through ecophysiological or agronomic thresholds. These indicators are normalized and aggregated according to aggregation rules in order to compute an overall climate index. To assess the future climate suitability of two French sites for grape regarding its quality, we designed an evaluation tree from GETARI, by considering the effect of water deficit between flowering and veraison and the effect of water deficit, water excess, heat stress, temperature ranges between day and night, night temperatures and mean temperatures between veraison and harvest. The two sites are located in Burgundy and Rhone valley which are two of the most important vineyards in the world. Ecoclimatic indicators are calculated using phenological cycle of the crop. For this reason we chose Grenache and Pinot Noir as long and short cycle varieties respectively. Flowering, veraison and harvest dates were simulated (Parker et al., 2011; Yiou et al., 2012). Daily

  12. Amplifying Learning through Sites of Pedagogical Practice: A Possible Effect of Working with Disciplinary Technologies in Schools Operating under Adverse Conditions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hayes, Debra

    2005-01-01

    Schools located within communities experiencing high levels of social dislocation, educational disadvantage and student disengagement from learning are working under "adverse conditions". These schools face particular challenges when it comes to stabilising and sustaining wholeschool change aimed at improving students' learning outcomes.…

  13. Marine water quality under climate change conditions/scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Zabeo, Alex; Brigolin, Daniele; Carniel, Sandro; Pastres, Roberto; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    The increase of sea temperature and the changes in marine currents are generating impacts on coastal waters such as changes in water biogeochemical and physical parameters (e.g. primary production, pH, salinity) leading to progressive degradation of the marine environment. With the main aim of analysing the potential impacts of climate change on coastal water quality, a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed and applied to coastal marine waters of the North Adriatic (i.e. coastal water bodies of the Veneto and Friuli Venezia Giulia regions, Italy). RRA integrates the outputs of regional models providing information on macronutrients (i.e. dissolved inorganic nitrogen e reactive phosphorus), dissolved oxygen, pH, salinity and temperature, etc., under future climate change scenarios with site-specific environmental and socio-economic indicators (e.g. biotic index, presence and extension of seagrasses, presence of aquaculture). The presented approach uses Geographic Information Systems to manage, analyse, and visualize data and employs Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the integration of stakeholders preferences and experts judgments into the evaluation process. RRA outputs are hazard, exposure, vulnerability, risk and damage maps useful for the identification and prioritization of hot-spot areas and vulnerable targets in the considered region. Therefore, the main aim of this contribution is to apply the RRA methodology to integrate, visualize, and rank according to spatial distribution, physical and chemical data concerning the coastal waters of the North Adriatic Sea in order to predict possible changes of the actual water quality.

  14. Varroa destructor and viruses association in honey bee colonies under different climatic conditions.

    PubMed

    Giacobino, Agostina; Molineri, Ana I; Pacini, Adriana; Fondevila, Norberto; Pietronave, Hernán; Rodríguez, Graciela; Palacio, Alejandra; Bulacio Cagnolo, Natalia; Orellano, Emanuel; Salto, César E; Signorini, Marcelo L; Merke, Julieta

    2016-06-01

    Honey bee colonies are threatened by multiple factors including complex interactions between environmental and diseases such as parasitic mites and viruses. We compared the presence of honeybee-pathogenic viruses and Varroa infestation rate in four apiaries: commercial colonies that received treatment against Varroa and non-treated colonies that did not received any treatment for the last 4 years located in temperate and subtropical climate. In addition, we evaluated the effect of climate and Varroa treatment on deformed wing virus (DWV) amounts. In both climates, DWV was the most prevalent virus, being the only present virus in subtropical colonies. Moreover, colonies from subtropical climate also showed reduced DWV amounts and lower Varroa infestation rates than colonies from temperate climate. Nevertheless, non-treated colonies in both climate conditions are able to survive several years. Environment appears as a key factor interacting with local bee populations and influencing colony survival beyond Varroa and virus presence.

  15. Varroa destructor and Viruses association in honey bee colonies under different climatic conditions.

    PubMed

    Giacobino, Agostina; Molineri, Ana I; Pacini, Adriana; Fondevila, Norberto; Pietronave, Hernán; Rodríguez, Graciela; Palacio, Alejandra; Cagnolo, Natalia Bulacio; Orellano, Emanuel; Salto, César E; Signorini, Marcelo L; Merke, Julieta

    2016-03-11

    Honey bee colonies are threatened by multiple factors including complex interactions between environmental and diseases such as parasitic mites and viruses. We compared the presence of honeybee-pathogenic viruses and Varroa infestation rate in four apiaries: commercial colonies that received treatment against Varroa and non-treated colonies that did not received any treatment for the last four years located in temperate and subtropical climate. In addition, we evaluated the effect of climate and Varroa treatment on DWV amounts. In both climates, DWV was the most prevalent virus, being the only present virus in subtropical colonies. Moreover, colonies from subtropical climate also showed reduced DWV amounts and lower Varroa infestation rates than colonies from temperate climate. Nevertheless, non-treated colonies in both climate conditions are able to survive several years. Environment appears as a key factor interacting with local bee populations and influencing colony survival beyond Varroa and Virus presence. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  16. Analysis of climatic conditions and preliminary assessment of alternative cooling strategies for houses in California transition climate zones

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, Y.J.; Zhang, H.

    1995-07-01

    This is a preliminary scoping study done as part of the {open_quotes}Alternatives to Compressive Cooling in California Transition Climates{close_quotes} project, which has the goal of demonstrating that houses in the transitional areas between the coast and the Central Valley of California do not require air-conditioning if they are properly designed and operated. The first part of this report analyzes the climate conditions within the transitional areas, with emphasis on design rather than seasonal conditions. Transitional climates are found to be milder but more variable than those further inland. The design temperatures under the most stringent design criteria, e.g. 0.1 % annual, are similar to those in the Valley, but significantly lower under more relaxed design criteria, e.g., 2% annual frequency. Transition climates also have large day-night temperature swings, indicating significant potential for night cooling, and wet-bulb depressions in excess of 25 F, indicating good potential for evaporative cooling. The second part of the report is a preliminary assessment using DOE-2 computer simulations of the effectiveness of alternative cooling and control strategies in improving indoor comfort conditions in two conventional Title-24 houses modeled in various transition climate locations. The cooling measures studied include increased insulation, light colors, low-emissivity glazing, window overhangs, and exposed floor slab. The control strategies studied include natural and mechanical ventilation, and direct and two-stage evaporative cooling. The results indicate the cooling strategies all have limited effectiveness, and need to be combined to produce significant improvements in indoor comfort. Natural and forced ventilation provide similar improvements in indoor conditions, but during peak cooling periods, these will still be above the comfort zone. Two-stage evaporative coolers can maintain indoor comfort at all hours, but not so direct evaporative coolers.

  17. Changes in Spatiotemporal Precipitation Patterns in Changing Climate Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Won; Stein, Michael L.; Wang, Jiali; Kotamarthi, V. Rao; Moyer, Elisabeth J.

    2016-12-01

    Climate models robustly imply that some significant change in precipitation patterns will occur. Models consistently project that the intensity of individual precipitation events increases by approximately 6-7%/K, following the increase in atmospheric water content, but that total precipitation increases by a lesser amount (1-2 %/K in the global average in transient runs). Some other aspect of precipitation events must then change to compensate for this difference. We develop here a new methodology for identifying individual rainstorms and studying their physical characteristics - including starting location, intensity, spatial extent, duration, and trajectory - that allows identifying that compensating mechanism. We apply this technique to precipitation over the contiguous U.S. from both radar-based data products and high-resolution model runs simulating 80 years of business-as-usual warming. In model studies, we find that the dominant compensating mechanism is a reduction of storm size. In summer, rainstorms become more intense but smaller, in winter, rainstorm shrinkage still dominates, but storms also become less numerous and shorter duration. These results imply that flood impacts from climate change will be less severe than would be expected from changes in precipitation intensity alone. We show also that projected changes are smaller than model-observation biases, implying that the best means of incorporating them into impact assessments is via "data-driven simulations" that apply model-projected changes to observational data. We therefore develop a simulation algorithm that statistically describes model changes in precipitation characteristics and adjusts data accordingly, and show that, especially for summertime precipitation, it outperforms simulation approaches that do not include spatial information.

  18. Structural convergence of maize and wheat straw during two-year decomposition under different climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xiaoyue; Sun, Bo; Mao, Jingdong; Sui, Yueyu; Cao, Xiaoyan

    2012-07-03

    Straw decomposition plays an important role in soil carbon sequestration. Litter quality and climate condition are considered to be key factors that regulate straw decomposition. This study investigated the decomposition characteristics of wheat and maize straw under cold temperate, warm temperate, and midsubtropic climate conditions, and examined whether the chemical structures of straw residues became similar during decomposition under different climate conditions. Straws were put in 0.074-mm-mesh size litter bags to exclude soil fauna and buried in black soil plots at three experimental stations located in the aforementioned climate regions to rule out the impact of soil type. The decomposition rate constants of wheat straw and maize straw increased linearly with temperature, and the former was more sensitive to temperature. Climate conditions and straw quality had marked effects on the residual material structure in the first half year of decomposition, but then decreased. Wheat and maize straw showed common decomposition characteristics with a decrease of O/N-alkyl carbons and di-O-alkyls, and a simultaneous increase of alkyl carbons, aromatic carbons, aromatic C-O groups, and COO/N-C ═ O groups. Overall, the results indicated that the chemical compositions of the two types of straw became similar after 2-year decomposition under different climate conditions.

  19. Climatic conditions and child height: Sex-specific vulnerability and the protective effects of sanitation and food markets in Nepal.

    PubMed

    Mulmi, Prajula; Block, Steven A; Shively, Gerald E; Masters, William A

    2016-12-01

    novel indications of mechanisms by which households can gain resilience against adverse climatic conditions.

  20. Catchment sensitivity to changing climate conditions: the importance of landscape characteristic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teutschbein, C.; Karlsen, R.; Grabs, T.; Laudon, H.; Bishop, K. H.

    2014-12-01

    The scientific literature is full of studies analyzing future climate change impacts on hydrology with focus on individual catchments. However, we recently found that hydrologic behavior and specific discharge vary considerably even in neighboring and rather similar catchments under current climate conditions and that these variations are related to landscape characteristics. Therefore we hypothesize that these landscape characteristics also play a fundamental role for the sensitivity of a catchment to changing climate conditions. We analyzed the hydrological response of 14 neighboring catchments in Northern Sweden with slightly different topography, land cover, size and geology. Current (1981-2010) and future (2061-2090) streamflow was simulated with the HBV light model. Climate projections were based on 14 regional climate models (ENSEMBLES EU project) and bias-corrected with a distribution-mapping approach. Our simulations revealed that future spring flood peaks will occur much earlier and decrease by 13 to 32 %, whereas winter base flows will increase slightly. These changes are somewhat expected and mainly triggered by a projected increase in winter temperature, which leads to less snow accumulation on the ground. However, these values also highlight that there is a large variability amongst the catchments in their hydrological response to the same future climate conditions. For example, spring flood peaks in catchments without wetlands decrease by only 13 to 15 %, whereas catchments with wetlands show a spring flood peak reduction of 20 to 32 %. In addition to wetlands, we also identified lakes, peat soils and higher elevations as factors that seem to cause a stronger hydrological response to the climate change signal, whereas catchments dominated by forests, steeper slopes and till soils seem to be less strongly affected by a changing climate. Therefore, our results suggest that the sensitivity of catchments to future climate conditions is strongly linked to

  1. Is the impact of future climate change on hydro-climatic conditions significant? - A climate change study for an Eastern European catchment area.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavlik, Dirk; Söhl, Dennis; Bernhofer, Christian

    2014-05-01

    The future change of climatic conditions is, among others, closely linked to future hydrological changes. One important aspect of these issues is the question of future availability of water resources. A changed climatic water balance, as indicator for potential water availability, has far-reaching consequences for the water cycle, hydrological conditions, ecology, water management, the energy business, agriculture and forestry, and for anthropogenic use of the river. We generated regional climate projections via dynamic downscaling for the catchment area of the Western Bug river in the border area of Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine. The hydro-climatic conditions of the past and their projected future changes in the catchment were analyzed based on 2m-temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and climatic water balance. Up to the end of the century, the used IPCC scenarios B1 and A2 lead to warming for each month in the long-term mean, with highest warming rates in winter. Instead, precipitation does not change in the long-term yearly mean. However, the intra-annual distribution of monthly precipitation sums shifts with an increase in winter and a strong decrease in summer. Combined, this leads to a changed climatic water balance with a stronger deficit in summer and a higher gain in winter. Particular in the south-eastern part of the catchment, the summer deficit cannot be compensated within the annual cycle. It raised the question: are these changes statistically significant and thus robust for use in further impact studies? Using a significance analysis, we found, that climatic changes in temperature, precipitation and potential evaporation and thus the climatic water balance change is most significant for scenario A2 from 2071 to 2100. The temperature changes are significant throughout the year. For the other variables changes are most significant in the late summer months (July, August, and September) and the winter months (December, January, and February

  2. Groundwater recharge simulation under the steady-state and transient climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pozdniakov, S.; Lykhina, N.

    2010-03-01

    Groundwater recharge simulation under the steady-state and transient climate conditions Diffusive groundwater recharge is a vertical water flux through the water table, i.e. through the boundary between the unsaturated and saturated zones. This flux features temporal and spatial changes due to variations in the climatic conditions, landscape the state of vegetation, and the spatial variability of vadoze zone characteristics. In a changing climate the non-steady state series of climatic characteristics will affect on the groundwater recharge.. A well-tested approach to calculating water flux through the vadoze zone is the application of Richard’s equations for a heterogeneous one-domain porosity continuum with specially formulated atmospheric boundary conditions at the ground surface. In this approach the climatic parameters are reflected in upper boundary conditions, while the recharge series is the flux through the low boundary. In this work developed by authors code Surfbal that simulates water cycle at surface of topsoil to take into account the various condition of precipitation transformation at the surface in different seasons under different vegetation cover including snow accumulation in winter and melting in spring is used to generate upper boundary condition at surface of topsoil for world-wide known Hydrus-1D code (Simunek et al, 2008). To estimate the proposal climate change effect we performed Surfbal and Hydrus simulation using the steady state climatic condition and transient condition due to global warming on example of Moscow region, Russia. The following scenario of climate change in 21 century in Moscow region was selected: the annual temperature will increase on 4C during 100 year and annual precipitation will increase on 10% (Solomon et al, 2007). Within the year the maximum increasing of temperature and precipitation falls on winter time, while in middle of summer temperature will remain almost the same as observed now and monthly

  3. Effects of sampling height and climatic conditions in aerobiological studies.

    PubMed

    Alcázar, P; Galán, C; Cariñanos, P; Domínguez-Vilches, E

    1999-01-01

    This study examined the effect of sampling height on the measurement of airborne particles (pollen grains) common in the sampling area in the outskirts of the city of Córdoba, Spain. The effect of certain meteorological parameters on variations in concentration at different heights were also examined. The study was carried out throughout 1991 and 1992 using two Hirst samplers placed at two different heights (1.5 and 15 m) at the Faculty of Science at the University of Córdoba. The statistical results indicated that there were significant differences in the concentrations obtained at different heights, the values at 1.5 m being generally higher with the exception of pollen belonging to the Urticaceae family. The pollen counts of this type were greater at the higher elevation, probably due to the small size of the pollen, especially in the Urtica membranacea species, and to the convective phenomena in this climatic zone in spring, the season in which this species blooms. When these height comparison studies were conducted, the importance of the effect of placing the sampler in relation to a nearby building was also observed. Higher pollen concentrations were detected when the lower sampler was located on the leeward side. The meteorological parameters studied had some influence on the vertical dispersion of the pollen, although the percentage of variation according to height was very small, probably due to the short duration of the study. However, a certain relation between the differences in concentration per height and the degree of atmospheric stability was observed.

  4. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  5. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  6. [Interrelations of Objective Conditions on Psychiatric Wards and Ward Climate Characteristics].

    PubMed

    Schalast, Norbert; Sieß, Julia

    2017-04-03

    Objective Investigate inter-relations of objective conditions and a ward's social climate. Method Staff and patients on 104 wards filled in the short Essen Climate Evaluation Schema (EssenCES). Assessments were related to setting variables (like open vs. closed wards, forensic vs. general psychiatric wards, ward size, staffing). Results Setting variables and climate characteristics are strongly associated. Conclusions The EssenCES, originally catered for forensic settings, proved to be useful to characterize general psychiatric wards. A number of suggestions regarding relevant setting conditions are clearly confirmed (like staffing level; open vs. closed wards). Remarkably, staff experience a higher level of Safety on forensic than on general psychiatric wards. Patients' Cohesion and Therapeutic Hold are rated higher on general psychiatric wards. Heterogeneity of patients (vs. specialization of wards) is not positively related to climate characteristics; staff experiences less Safety on non-specialized wards.

  7. Evaluation of thermal perception in schoolyards under Mediterranean climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antoniadis, D.; Katsoulas, N.; Papanastasiou, D.; Christidou, V.; Kittas, C.

    2016-03-01

    The aim of this paper was to study qualitatively and quantitatively the thermal perception and corresponding heat stress conditions that prevail in two schoolyards in a coastal city in central Greece. For this purpose, meteorological parameters (i.e., wind speed, temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation) were recorded at 70 and 55 measuring points in the schoolyards, from 14:00 to 15:30 local time, during May and June of 2011. The measuring points were distributed so as to get measurements at points (a) directly exposed to the sun, (b) under the shadow of trees and building structures, and (c) near building structures. Cluster analysis was applied to group observations and revealed places that are microclimatically homogeneous. Thermal perception and heat stress conditions were assessed by means of the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET, °C), and the results are presented in relevant charts. The impact of material's albedo, radiation's reflection by structures and obstacles, and different tree species on thermal perception and heat stress conditions was also assessed. The analysis showed that trees triggered a reduction of incident solar radiation that ranged between 79 and 94 % depending on tree's species, crown dimension, tree height, and leaf area. PET values were mainly affected by solar radiation and wind speed. Trees caused a reduction of up to 37 % in PET values, while a 1-m s-1 increase in wind speed triggered a reduction of 3.7-5.0 °C in PET value. The effective shading area in the two schoolyards was small, being 27.5 and 11 %. The results of this study could be exploited by urban planning managers when designing or improving the outdoor environment of a school complex.

  8. Attributing Climate Conditions for Stable Malaria Transmission to Human Activity in sub-Saharan Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheldrake, L.; Mitchell, D.; Allen, M. R.

    2015-12-01

    Temperature and precipitation limit areas of stable malaria transmission, but the effects of climate change on the disease remain controversial. Previously, studies have not separated the influence of anthropogenic climate change and natural variability, despite being an essential step in the attribution of climate change impacts. Ensembles of 2900 simulations of regional climate in sub-Saharan Africa for the year 2013, one representing realistic conditions and the other how climate might have been in the absence of human influence, were used to force a P.falciparium climate suitability model developed by the Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa project. Strongest signals were detected in areas of unstable transmission, indicating their heightened sensitivity to climatic factors. Evidently, impacts of human-induced climate change were unevenly distributed: the probability of conditions being suitable for stable malaria transmission were substantially reduced (increased) in the Sahel (Greater Horn of Africa (GHOA), particularly in the Ethiopian and Kenyan highlands). The length of the transmission season was correspondingly shortened in the Sahel and extended in the GHOA, by 1 to 2 months, including in Kericho (Kenya), where the role of climate change in driving recent malaria occurrence is hotly contested. Human-induced warming was primarily responsible for positive anomalies in the GHOA, while reduced rainfall caused negative anomalies in the Sahel. The latter was associated with anthropogenic impacts on the West African Monsoon, but uncertainty in the RCM's ability to reproduce precipitation trends in the region weakens confidence in the result. That said, outputs correspond well with broad-scale changes in observed endemicity, implying a potentially important contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the malaria burden during the past century. Results support the health-framing of climate risk and help indicate hotspots of climate vulnerability, providing

  9. Growing conditions of the Ust'-Emuneret flora and the Santonian-Campanian climate of Chukotka

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moiseeva, M. G.

    2015-07-01

    New data on climatic conditions of the Ust'-Emuneret flora growth in the Enmyvaam River basin, Okhotsk-Chukotka volcanic belt, are reported. A great diversity of woody dicot leaves in the studied flora permits for the first time for this region the reconstruction of quantitative paleoclimatic parameters using the CLAMP analysis. On the basis of the available results, the Santonian-Campanian climate of the northern Okhotsk-Chukotka volcanic belt and the adjacent Anadyr-Koryak region is analyzed.

  10. Effects of future climate conditions on terrestrial export from coastal southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, D.; Zhao, Y.; Raoufi, R.; Beighley, E.; Melack, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    The Santa Barbara Coastal - Long Term Ecological Research Project (SBC-LTER) is focused on investigating the relative importance of land and ocean processes in structuring giant kelp forest ecosystems. Understanding how current and future climate conditions influence terrestrial export is a central theme for the project. Here we combine the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model and daily precipitation and temperature downscaled using statistical downscaling based on localized constructed Analogs (LOCA) to estimate recent streamflow dynamics (2000 to 2014) and future conditions (2015 to 2100). The HRR model covers the SBC-LTER watersheds from just west of the Ventura River to Point Conception; a land area of roughly 800 km2 with 179 watersheds ranging from 0.1 to 123 km2. The downscaled climate conditions have a spatial resolution of 6 km by 6 km. Here, we use the Penman-Monteith method with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) limited climate data approximations and land surface conditions (albedo, leaf area index, land cover) measured from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites to estimate potential evapotranspiration (PET). The HRR model is calibrated for the period 2000 to 2014 using USGS and LTER streamflow. An automated calibration technique is used. For future climate scenarios, we use mean 8-day land cover conditions. Future streamflow, ET and soil moisture statistics are presented and based on downscaled P and T from ten climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5).

  11. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Reeves, T.L.; Turner, J.P.; Hasfurther, V.R.; Skinner, Q.D.

    1992-06-01

    The scope of this program is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large scale research sufficient to describe commercial scale embankment behavior. The large scale approach was accomplished by establishing five lysimeters, each 7.3 {times} 3.0 {times} 3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process. Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by RBOSC to carry out this study. Research objectives were designed to evaluate hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical properties and conditions which would affect the design and performance of large-scale embankments. The objectives of this research are: assess the unsaturated movement and redistribution of water and the development of potential saturated zones and drainage in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the unsaturated movement of solubles and major chemical constituents in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the physical and constitutive properties of the processed oil shale and determine potential changes in these properties caused by disposal and weathering by natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the use of previously developed computer model(s) to describe the infiltration, unsaturated movement, redistribution, and drainage of water in disposed processed oil shale; evaluate the stability of field scale processed oil shale solid waste embankments using computer models.

  12. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Reeves, T.L.; Turner, J.P.; Hasfurther, V.R.; Skinner, Q.D.

    1992-06-01

    The scope of this program is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large scale research sufficient to describe commercial scale embankment behavior. The large scale approach was accomplished by establishing five lysimeters, each 7.3 [times] 3.0 [times] 3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process. Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by RBOSC to carry out this study. Research objectives were designed to evaluate hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical properties and conditions which would affect the design and performance of large-scale embankments. The objectives of this research are: assess the unsaturated movement and redistribution of water and the development of potential saturated zones and drainage in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the unsaturated movement of solubles and major chemical constituents in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the physical and constitutive properties of the processed oil shale and determine potential changes in these properties caused by disposal and weathering by natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the use of previously developed computer model(s) to describe the infiltration, unsaturated movement, redistribution, and drainage of water in disposed processed oil shale; evaluate the stability of field scale processed oil shale solid waste embankments using computer models.

  13. Key factors affecting urban runoff pollution under cold climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valtanen, Marjo; Sillanpää, Nora; Setälä, Heikki

    2015-10-01

    Urban runoff contains various pollutants and has the potential of deteriorating the quality of aquatic ecosystems. In this study our objective is to shed light on the factors that control the runoff water quality in urbanized catchments. The effects of runoff event characteristics, land use type and catchment imperviousness on event mass loads (EML) and event mean concentrations (EMC) were studied during warm and cold periods in three study catchments (6.1, 6.5 and 12.6 ha in size) in the city of Lahti, Finland. Runoff and rainfall were measured continuously for two years at each catchment. Runoff samples were taken for total nutrients (tot-P and tot-N), total suspended solids (TSS), heavy metals (Zn, Cr, Al, Co, Ni, Cu, Pb, Mn) and total organic carbon (TOC). Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis (SMLR) was used to identify general relationships between the following variables: event water quality, runoff event characteristics and catchment characteristics. In general, the studied variables explained 50-90% of the EMLs but only 30-60% of the EMCs, with runoff duration having an important role in most of the SMLR models. Mean runoff intensity or peak flow was also often included in the runoff quality models. Yet, the importance (being the first, second or third best) and role (negative or positive impact) of the explanatory variables varied between the cold and warm period. Land use type often explained cold period concentrations, but imperviousness alone explained EMCs weakly. As for EMLs, the influence of imperviousness and/or land use was season and pollutant dependent. The study suggests that pollutant loads can be - throughout the year - adequately predicted by runoff characteristics given that seasonal differences are taken into account. Although pollutant concentrations were sensitive to variation in seasonal and catchment conditions as well, the accurate estimation of EMCs would require a more complete set of explanatory factors than used in this

  14. Egg phenotype matching by cuckoos in relation to discrimination by hosts and climatic conditions

    PubMed Central

    Avilés, Jesús M.; Vikan, Johan R.; Fossøy, Frode; Antonov, Anton; Moksnes, Arne; Røskaft, Eivin; Shykoff, Jacqui A.; Møller, Anders P.; Stokke, Bård G.

    2012-01-01

    Although parasites and their hosts often coexist in a set of environmentally differentiated populations connected by gene flow, few empirical studies have considered a role of environmental variation in shaping correlations between traits of hosts and parasites. Here, we studied for the first time the association between the frequency of adaptive parasitic common cuckoo Cuculus canorus phenotypes in terms of egg matching and level of defences exhibited by its reed warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus hosts across seven geographically distant populations in Europe. We also explored the influence of spring climatic conditions experienced by cuckoos and hosts on cuckoo–host egg matching. We found that between-population differences in host defences against cuckoos (i.e. rejection rate) covaried with between-population differences in degree of matching. Between-population differences in host egg phenotype were associated with between-population differences in parasitism rate and spring climatic conditions, but not with host level of defences. Between-population differences in cuckoo egg phenotype covaried with between-population differences in host defences and spring climatic conditions. However, differences in host defences still explained differences in mimicry once differences in climatic conditions were controlled, suggesting that selection exerted by host defences must be strong relative to selection imposed by climatic factors on egg phenotypes. PMID:22237911

  15. A probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of vegetation drought under varying climate conditions across China.

    PubMed

    Liu, Zhiyong; Li, Chao; Zhou, Ping; Chen, Xiuzhi

    2016-10-07

    Climate change significantly impacts the vegetation growth and terrestrial ecosystems. Using satellite remote sensing observations, here we focus on investigating vegetation dynamics and the likelihood of vegetation-related drought under varying climate conditions across China. We first compare temporal trends of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and climatic variables over China. We find that in fact there is no significant change in vegetation over the cold regions where warming is significant. Then, we propose a joint probability model to estimate the likelihood of vegetation-related drought conditioned on different precipitation/temperature scenarios in growing season across China. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to examine the vegetation-related drought risk over China from a perspective based on joint probability. Our results demonstrate risk patterns of vegetation-related drought under both low and high precipitation/temperature conditions. We further identify the variations in vegetation-related drought risk under different climate conditions and the sensitivity of drought risk to climate variability. These findings provide insights for decision makers to evaluate drought risk and vegetation-related develop drought mitigation strategies over China in a warming world. The proposed methodology also has a great potential to be applied for vegetation-related drought risk assessment in other regions worldwide.

  16. A probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of vegetation drought under varying climate conditions across China

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Zhiyong; Li, Chao; Zhou, Ping; Chen, Xiuzhi

    2016-01-01

    Climate change significantly impacts the vegetation growth and terrestrial ecosystems. Using satellite remote sensing observations, here we focus on investigating vegetation dynamics and the likelihood of vegetation-related drought under varying climate conditions across China. We first compare temporal trends of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and climatic variables over China. We find that in fact there is no significant change in vegetation over the cold regions where warming is significant. Then, we propose a joint probability model to estimate the likelihood of vegetation-related drought conditioned on different precipitation/temperature scenarios in growing season across China. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to examine the vegetation-related drought risk over China from a perspective based on joint probability. Our results demonstrate risk patterns of vegetation-related drought under both low and high precipitation/temperature conditions. We further identify the variations in vegetation-related drought risk under different climate conditions and the sensitivity of drought risk to climate variability. These findings provide insights for decision makers to evaluate drought risk and vegetation-related develop drought mitigation strategies over China in a warming world. The proposed methodology also has a great potential to be applied for vegetation-related drought risk assessment in other regions worldwide. PMID:27713530

  17. A probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of vegetation drought under varying climate conditions across China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Zhiyong; Li, Chao; Zhou, Ping; Chen, Xiuzhi

    2016-10-01

    Climate change significantly impacts the vegetation growth and terrestrial ecosystems. Using satellite remote sensing observations, here we focus on investigating vegetation dynamics and the likelihood of vegetation-related drought under varying climate conditions across China. We first compare temporal trends of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and climatic variables over China. We find that in fact there is no significant change in vegetation over the cold regions where warming is significant. Then, we propose a joint probability model to estimate the likelihood of vegetation-related drought conditioned on different precipitation/temperature scenarios in growing season across China. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to examine the vegetation-related drought risk over China from a perspective based on joint probability. Our results demonstrate risk patterns of vegetation-related drought under both low and high precipitation/temperature conditions. We further identify the variations in vegetation-related drought risk under different climate conditions and the sensitivity of drought risk to climate variability. These findings provide insights for decision makers to evaluate drought risk and vegetation-related develop drought mitigation strategies over China in a warming world. The proposed methodology also has a great potential to be applied for vegetation-related drought risk assessment in other regions worldwide.

  18. Catchment Sensitivity to Changing Climate Conditions: Does the Landscape Control Hydrological Responses?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quesada Montano, B.; Teutschbein, C.; Grabs, T.; Karlsen, R.; Laudon, H.; Bishop, K. H.

    2015-12-01

    It has long been recognized that streamflow-generating processes are not only dependent on climatic conditions, but also affected by physical catchment properties such as topography, geology, soils and land cover. We hypothesize that these landscape characteristics do not only lead to highly variable hydrologic behavior of rather similar catchments under the same stationary climate conditions, but that they also play a fundamental role for the sensitivity of a catchment to a changing climate. A multi-model ensemble based on 15 regional climate models was combined with a multi-catchment approach to explore the hydrologic sensitivity of 14 partially nested and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden to changing climate conditions and the importance of small-scale spatial variability. Current (1981-2010) and future (2061-2090) streamflow was simulated with the HBV model. As expected, projected increases in temperature and precipitation resulted in increased total available streamflow, with lower spring and summer flows, but substantially higher winter streamflow. Furthermore, significant changes in flow durations with lower chances of both high and low flows can be expected in boreal Sweden in the future. This overall trend in projected streamflow pattern changes was comparable among the analyzed catchments while the magnitude of change differed considerably. This suggests that catchments belonging to the same region can show distinctly different degrees of hydrological responses to the same external climate change signal. We reason that differences in spatially distributed physical catchment properties at smaller scales are not only of great importance for current streamflow behavior, but also play a major role as first-order control for the sensitivity of catchments to changing climate conditions.

  19. Sensitivity of Pliocene climate simulations in MRI-CGCM2.3 to respective boundary conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamae, Youichi; Yoshida, Kohei; Ueda, Hiroaki

    2016-08-01

    Accumulations of global proxy data are essential steps for improving reliability of climate model simulations for the Pliocene warming climate. In the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PlioMIP2), a part project of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4, boundary forcing data have been updated from the PlioMIP phase 1 due to recent advances in understanding of oceanic, terrestrial and cryospheric aspects of the Pliocene palaeoenvironment. In this study, sensitivities of Pliocene climate simulations to the newly archived boundary conditions are evaluated by a set of simulations using an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model, MRI-CGCM2.3. The simulated Pliocene climate is warmer than pre-industrial conditions for 2.4 °C in global mean, corresponding to 0.6 °C warmer than the PlioMIP1 simulation by the identical climate model. Revised orography, lakes, and shrunk ice sheets compared with the PlioMIP1 lead to local and remote influences including snow and sea ice albedo feedback, and poleward heat transport due to the atmosphere and ocean that result in additional warming over middle and high latitudes. The amplified higher-latitude warming is supported qualitatively by the proxy evidences, but is still underestimated quantitatively. Physical processes responsible for the global and regional climate changes should be further addressed in future studies under systematic intermodel and data-model comparison frameworks.

  20. Environmental Risk of Climate Change and Groundwater Abstraction on Ecological Conditions in a Danish Catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seaby, L. P.; Boegh, E.; Jensen, N. H.

    2014-12-01

    The Danish drinking water supply is sourced almost entirely from groundwater. Balancing water abstraction demands and the ecological conditions in streams is one of the major challenges for water resource managers. With projected climate change, characterised by increased annual temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration rates for Denmark, the impact to low flows and groundwater levels are especially of interest, as they relate to aquatic habitat and nitrate leaching, respectively. On the island Sjælland, which includes urban and agricultural regions, a doubling of groundwater abstraction rates has been proposed in selected areas to meet water resource demands. This study evaluates the risk to stream ecological conditions for a lowland Danish catchment under multiple scenarios of climate change and groundwater abstraction. Projections of future climate (i.e. precipitation, temperature, reference evapotranspiration) come from the ENSEMBLES climate modelling project. Climate variables from 11 climate models are first bias corrected with a distribution based scaling (DBS) method (Seaby et al., 2013) and then used to force hydrological simulations of stream discharge, groundwater recharge, and nitrate leaching from the root zone under present (1991-2010) and future (2071-2100) climate conditions. Hydrological modelling utilises a sequential coupling methodology with DAISY, a one dimensional crop model describing soil water dynamics in the root zone, and MIKE SHE, a distributed groundwater-surface water model which the National Water Resources Model (DK-model) is set up in (Henriksen et al., 2003). We find low flow and annual discharge to be most impacted by scenarios of climate change, with high variation across climate models (+/- 40% change). Doubling of current groundwater abstraction rates reduces annual discharge by approximately 20%, with higher reductions to low flows seen around 40%. The combined effects of climate change and increased groundwater

  1. Frog population viability under present and future climate conditions: a Bayesian state-space approach.

    PubMed

    McCaffery, R; Solonen, A; Crone, E

    2012-09-01

    1. World-wide extinctions of amphibians are at the forefront of the biodiversity crisis, with climate change figuring prominently as a potential driver of continued amphibian decline. As in other taxa, changes in both the mean and variability of climate conditions may affect amphibian populations in complex, unpredictable ways. In western North America, climate models predict a reduced duration and extent of mountain snowpack and increased variability in precipitation, which may have consequences for amphibians inhabiting montane ecosystems. 2. We used Bayesian capture-recapture methods to estimate survival and transition probabilities in a high-elevation population of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) over 10 years and related these rates to interannual variation in peak snowpack. Then, we forecasted frog population growth and viability under a range of scenarios with varying levels of change in mean and variance in snowpack. 3. Over a range of future scenarios, changes in mean snowpack had a greater effect on viability than changes in the variance of snowpack, with forecasts largely predicting an increase in population viability. Population models based on snowpack during our study period predicted a declining population. 4. Although mean conditions were more important for viability than variance, for a given mean snowpack depth, increases in variability could change a population from increasing to decreasing. Therefore, the influence of changing climate variability on populations should be accounted for in predictive models. The Bayesian modelling framework allows for the explicit characterization of uncertainty in parameter estimates and ecological forecasts, and thus provides a natural approach for examining relative contributions of mean and variability in climatic variables to population dynamics. 5. Longevity and heterogeneous habitat may contribute to the potential for this amphibian species to be resilient to increased climatic variation, and

  2. Extreme Air Pollution Conditions Adversely Affect Blood Pressure and Insulin Resistance: The Air Pollution and Cardiometabolic Disease Study.

    PubMed

    Brook, Robert D; Sun, Zhichao; Brook, Jeffrey R; Zhao, Xiaoyi; Ruan, Yanping; Yan, Jianhua; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Rao, Xiaoquan; Duan, Fengkui; Sun, Lixian; Liang, Ruijuan; Lian, Hui; Zhang, Shuyang; Fang, Quan; Gu, Dongfeng; Sun, Qinghua; Fan, Zhongjie; Rajagopalan, Sanjay

    2016-01-01

    Mounting evidence supports that fine particulate matter adversely affects cardiometabolic diseases particularly in susceptible individuals; however, health effects induced by the extreme concentrations within megacities in Asia are not well described. We enrolled 65 nonsmoking adults with metabolic syndrome and insulin resistance in the Beijing metropolitan area into a panel study of 4 repeated visits across 4 seasons since 2012. Daily ambient fine particulate matter and personal black carbon levels ranged from 9.0 to 552.5 µg/m(3) and 0.2 to 24.5 µg/m(3), respectively, with extreme levels observed during January 2013. Cumulative fine particulate matter exposure windows across the prior 1 to 7 days were significantly associated with systolic blood pressure elevations ranging from 2.0 (95% confidence interval, 0.3-3.7) to 2.7 (0.6-4.8) mm Hg per SD increase (67.2 µg/m(3)), whereas cumulative black carbon exposure during the previous 2 to 5 days were significantly associated with ranges in elevations in diastolic blood pressure from 1.3 (0.0-2.5) to 1.7 (0.3-3.2) mm Hg per SD increase (3.6 µg/m(3)). Both black carbon and fine particulate matter were significantly associated with worsening insulin resistance (0.18 [0.01-0.36] and 0.22 [0.04-0.39] unit increase per SD increase of personal-level black carbon and 0.18 [0.02-0.34] and 0.22 [0.08-0.36] unit increase per SD increase of ambient fine particulate matter on lag days 4 and 5). These results provide important global public health warnings that air pollution may pose a risk to cardiometabolic health even at the extremely high concentrations faced by billions of people in the developing world today.

  3. Assessment of production risks for winter wheat in different German regions under climate change conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kersebaum, K. C.; Gandorfer, M.; Wegehenkel, M.

    2012-04-01

    The study shows climate change impacts on wheat production in selected regions across Germany. To estimate yield and economic effects the agro-ecosystem model HERMES was used. The model performed runs using 2 different releases of the model WETTREG providing statistically downscaled climate change scenarios for the weather station network of the German Weather Service. Simulations were done using intersected GIS information on soil types and land use identifying the most relevant sites for wheat production. The production risks for wheat yields at the middle of this century were compared to a reference of the present climate. The irrigation demand was determined by the model using an automatic irrigation mode. Production risks with and without irrigation were assessed and the economic feasibility to reduce production risks by irrigation was evaluated. Costs and benefits were compared. Additionally, environmental effects, e.g. groundwater recharge and nitrogen emissions were assessed for irrigated and rain fed systems. Results show that positive and negative effects of climate change occur within most regions depending on the site conditions. Water holding capacity and groundwater distance were the most important factors which determined the vulnerability of sites. Under climate change condition in the middle of the next century we can expect especially at sites with low water holding capacity decreasing average gross margins, higher production risks and a reduced nitrogen use efficiency under rainfed conditions. Irrigation seems to be profitable and risk reducing at those sites, provided that water for irrigation is available. Additionally, the use of irrigation can also increase nitrogen use efficiency which reduced emissions by leaching. Despite the site conditions results depend strongly on the used regional climate scenario and the model approach to consider the effect of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere.

  4. Threats to xylem hydraulic function of trees under 'new climate normal' conditions.

    PubMed

    Zwieniecki, Maciej A; Secchi, Francesca

    2015-09-01

    Climate models predict increases in frequency and intensity of extreme environmental conditions, such as changes to minimum and maximum temperatures, duration of drought periods, intensity of rainfall/snowfall events and wind strength. These local extremes, rather than average climatic conditions, are closely linked to woody plant survival, as trees cope with such events over long lifespans. While the xylem provides trees with structural strength and is considered the most robust part of a tree's structure, it is also the most physiologically vulnerable as tree survival depends on its ability to sustain water supply to the tree crown under variable environmental conditions. Many structural, functional and biological tree properties evolved to protect xylem from loss of transport function because of embolism or to restore xylem transport capacity following embolism formation. How 'the new climate normal' conditions will affect these evolved strategies is yet to be seen. Our understanding of xylem physiology and current conceptual models describing embolism formation and plant recovery from water stress, however, can provide insight into near-future challenges that woody plants will face. In addition, knowledge of species-specific properties of xylem function may help guide mitigation of climate change impacts on woody plants in natural and agricultural tree communities.

  5. Middle Pliocene vegetation: Reconstructions, paleoclimatic inferences, and boundary conditions for climate modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thompson, R.S.; Fleming, R.F.

    1996-01-01

    The general characteristics of global vegetation during the middle Pliocene warm period can be reconstructed from fossil pollen and plant megafossil data. The largest differences between Pliocene vegetation and that of today occurred at high latitudes in both hemispheres, where warming was pronounced relative to today. In the Northern Hemisphere coniferous forests lived in the modern tundra and polar desert regions, whereas in the Southern Hemisphere southern beech apparently grew in coastal areas of Antarctica. Pliocene middle latitude vegetation differed less, although moister-than-modern conditions supported forest and woodland growth in some regions now covered by steppe or grassland. Pliocene tropical vegetation reflects essentially modern conditions in some regions and slightly cooler-than-or warmer-than- modern climates in other areas. Changes in topography induced by tectonics may be responsible for many of the climatic changes since the Pliocene in both middle and lower latitudes. However, the overall latitudinal progression of climatic conditions on land parallels that seen in the reconstruction of middle Pliocene sea-surface temperatures. Pliocene paleovegetational data was employed to construct a 2????2?? global grid of estimated mid-Pliocene vegetational cover for use as boundary conditions for numerical General Circulation Model simulations of middle Pliocene climates. Continental outlines and topography were first modified to represent the Pliocene landscape on the 2????2?? grid. A modern 1????1?? vegetation grid was simplified and mapped on this Pliocene grid, and then modified following general geographic trends evident in the Pliocene paleovegetation data set.

  6. Antagonistic pleiotropy at the human IL6 promoter confers genetic resilience to the pro-inflammatory effects of adverse social conditions in adolescence.

    PubMed

    Cole, Steven W; Arevalo, Jesusa M G; Manu, Kavya; Telzer, Eva H; Kiang, Lisa; Bower, Julienne E; Irwin, Michael R; Fuligni, Andrew J

    2011-07-01

    The authors tested the evolutionary genetic hypothesis that the functional form of an asymmetrically risky Gene × Environment interaction will differ as a function of age-related antagonistic pleiotropy (i.e., show opposite effects in young vs. old individuals). Previous studies have identified a polymorphism in the human IL6 promoter (rs1800795; IL6-74 G/C) that interacts with adverse socioenvironmental conditions to promote chronic inflammation in older adults (elevated C-reactive protein). This study identifies a protective effect of the same polymorphism in 17- to 19-year-old adolescents confronting socioeconomic adversity. Over 60% of the environmental risk contribution to the IL6 × Socioeconomic Status interaction could be accounted for by interpersonal stress and adult role burden. Thus, the IL6-174G allele does not represent an undifferentiated risk factor but instead sensitizes inflammatory biology to socioenvironmental conditions, conferring either genetic vulnerability or resilience depending on the developmental "somatic environment" that interacts with social conditions to influence gene expression.

  7. Collaborative Research. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks of the Terrestrial Biosphere under Thawing Permafrost Conditions in the Arctic

    SciTech Connect

    Zhuang, Qianlai; Schlosser, Courtney; Melillo, Jerry; Walter, Katey

    2015-09-15

    Our overall goal is to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically-forced climate warming, and the conditions under which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes to the landscape of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, across the Arctic. Through a suite of numerical experiments that encapsulate the fundamental processes governing methane emissions and carbon exchanges – as well as their coupling to the global climate system - we intend to test the following hypothesis in the proposed research: There exists a climate warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and stimulates large increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and poorly-drained wetland areas upon thawing permafrost along with microbial metabolic responses to higher temperatures) and increases in carbon dioxide emissions from well-drained areas. Besides changes in biogeochemistry, this threshold will also influence global energy dynamics through effects on surface albedo, evapotranspiration and water vapor. These changes would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands and higher plant photosynthesis) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.

  8. Hydrological response to changing climate conditions: Spatial streamflow variability in the boreal region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teutschbein, Claudia; Grabs, Thomas; Karlsen, Reinert H.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Bishop, Kevin

    2016-04-01

    It has long been recognized that streamflow-generating processes are not only dependent on climatic conditions, but also affected by physical catchment properties such as topography, geology, soils and land cover. We hypothesize that these landscape characteristics do not only lead to highly variable hydrologic behavior of rather similar catchments under the same stationary climate conditions (Karlsen et al., 2014), but that they also play a fundamental role for the sensitivity of a catchment to a changing climate (Teutschbein et al., 2015). A multi-model ensemble based on 15 regional climate models was combined with a multi-catchment approach to explore the hydrologic sensitivity of 14 partially nested and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden to changing climate conditions and the importance of small-scale spatial variability. Current (1981-2010) and future (2061-2090) streamflow was simulated with the HBV model. As expected, projected increases in temperature and precipitation resulted in increased total available streamflow, with lower spring and summer flows, but substantially higher winter streamflow. Furthermore, significant changes in flow durations with lower chances of both high and low flows can be expected in boreal Sweden in the future. This overall trend in projected streamflow pattern changes was comparable among the analyzed catchments while the magnitude of change differed considerably. This suggests that catchments belonging to the same region can show distinctly different degrees of hydrological responses to the same external climate change signal. We reason that differences in spatially distributed physical catchment properties at smaller scales are not only of great importance for current streamflow behavior, but also play a major role as first-order control for the sensitivity of catchments to changing climate conditions. References Karlsen, R.H., T. Grabs, K. Bishop, H. Laudon, and J. Seibert (2014). Landscape controls on

  9. Effects of climate on the productivity of desert truffles beneath hyper-arid conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bradai, Lyès; Bissati, Samia; Chenchouni, Haroun; Amrani, Khaled

    2015-07-01

    Desert truffles are edible hypogenous fungi that are very well adapted to conditions of aridity in arid and semi-arid regions. This study aims to highlight the influence of climatic factors on the productivity of desert truffles under hyper-arid climatic conditions of the Sahara Desert in Algeria, with assumptions that the more varying climatic factors, mainly rainfall, are more crucial for the development and production of desert truffles. At seven separate sites, desert truffles were collected by systematic sampling between 2006 and 2012. The effects of climate parameters of each site on the productivities (g/ha/year) of desert truffle species were tested using generalized linear models (GLMs). The annual mean of the total production recorded for all three harvested species ( Terfezia arenaria, Terfezia claveryi, and Tirmania nivea) was 785.43 ± 743.39 g/ha. Tirmania nivea was commonly present over the sampled sites with an occurrence of 70 ± 10.1 %. GLMs revealed that total and specific productivities were closely positively related to autumnal precipitations occurring during October-December, which is the critical pre-breeding period for both desert truffles and host plant species. The other climatic parameters have statistically no effect on the annual variation of desert truffle productivity.

  10. Crash testing hydrological models in contrasted climate conditions: An experiment on 216 Australian catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coron, L.; AndréAssian, V.; Perrin, C.; Lerat, J.; Vaze, J.; Bourqui, M.; Hendrickx, F.

    2012-05-01

    This paper investigates the actual extrapolation capacity of three hydrological models in differing climate conditions. We propose a general testing framework, in which we perform series of split-sample tests, testing all possible combinations of calibration-validation periods using a 10 year sliding window. This methodology, which we have called the generalized split-sample test (GSST), provides insights into the model's transposability over time under various climatic conditions. The three conceptual rainfall-runoff models yielded similar results over a set of 216 catchments in southeast Australia. First, we assessed the model's efficiency in validation using a criterion combining the root-mean-square error and bias. A relation was found between this efficiency and the changes in mean rainfall (P) but not with changes in mean potential evapotranspiration (PE) or air temperature (T). Second, we focused on average runoff volumes and found that simulation biases are greatly affected by changes in P. Calibration over a wetter (drier) climate than the validation climate leads to an overestimation (underestimation) of the mean simulated runoff. We observed different magnitudes of these models deficiencies depending on the catchment considered. Results indicate that the transfer of model parameters in time may introduce a significant level of errors in simulations, meaning increased uncertainty in the various practical applications of these models (flow simulation, forecasting, design, reservoir management, climate change impact assessments, etc.). Testing model robustness with respect to this issue should help better quantify these uncertainties.

  11. Humpback whale diets respond to variance in ocean climate and ecosystem conditions in the California Current.

    PubMed

    Fleming, Alyson H; Clark, Casey T; Calambokidis, John; Barlow, Jay

    2016-03-01

    Large, migratory predators are often cited as sentinel species for ecosystem processes and climate-related changes, but their utility as indicators is dependent upon an understanding of their response to environmental variability. Documentation of the links between climate variability, ecosystem change and predator dynamics is absent for most top predators. Identifying species that may be useful indicators and elucidating these mechanistic links provides insight into current ecological dynamics and may inform predictions of future ecosystem responses to climatic change. We examine humpback whale response to environmental variability through stable isotope analysis of diet over a dynamic 20-year period (1993-2012) in the California Current System (CCS). Humpback whale diets captured two major shifts in oceanographic and ecological conditions in the CCS. Isotopic signatures reflect a diet dominated by krill during periods characterized by positive phases of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), cool sea surface temperature (SST), strong upwelling and high krill biomass. In contrast, humpback whale diets are dominated by schooling fish when the NPGO is negative, SST is warmer, seasonal upwelling is delayed and anchovy and sardine populations display increased biomass and range expansion. These findings demonstrate that humpback whales trophically respond to ecosystem shifts, and as a result, their foraging behavior is a synoptic indicator of oceanographic and ecological conditions across the CCS. Multi-decadal examination of these sentinel species thus provides insight into biological consequences of interannual climate fluctuations, fundamental to advancing ecosystem predictions related to global climate change.

  12. Effects of climate on the productivity of desert truffles beneath hyper-arid conditions.

    PubMed

    Bradai, Lyès; Bissati, Samia; Chenchouni, Haroun; Amrani, Khaled

    2015-07-01

    Desert truffles are edible hypogenous fungi that are very well adapted to conditions of aridity in arid and semi-arid regions. This study aims to highlight the influence of climatic factors on the productivity of desert truffles under hyper-arid climatic conditions of the Sahara Desert in Algeria, with assumptions that the more varying climatic factors, mainly rainfall, are more crucial for the development and production of desert truffles. At seven separate sites, desert truffles were collected by systematic sampling between 2006 and 2012. The effects of climate parameters of each site on the productivities (g/ha/year) of desert truffle species were tested using generalized linear models (GLMs). The annual mean of the total production recorded for all three harvested species (Terfezia arenaria, Terfezia claveryi, and Tirmania nivea) was 785.43 ± 743.39 g/ha. Tirmania nivea was commonly present over the sampled sites with an occurrence of 70 ± 10.1%. GLMs revealed that total and specific productivities were closely positively related to autumnal precipitations occurring during October-December, which is the critical pre-breeding period for both desert truffles and host plant species. The other climatic parameters have statistically no effect on the annual variation of desert truffle productivity.

  13. Impact of climatic conditions on the design of a water treatment plant

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arregoitia, C.; Mesa, M. P.

    2012-04-01

    The abundance or scarcity of resources causes enormous problems for populations and societies. They mark the direction of the development that a society will take. Water imbalances, may distort optimal environmental and socioeconomic conditions of the food production. Water scarcity may limit food production and supply, putting pressure on food prices and increasing countries' dependence on food imports. Rising demand for food caused by growing populations and shifting diets, production shortfall in some countries, increased costs for key agricultural inputs and meat supply (driven in turn by energy costs), bioenergy-related incentives in some countries and possible financial speculation have all contributed to the steep rises in food prices. According to United Nations Over the past century world water withdrawals increased almost twice as fast as population growth and an increasing number of regions are chronically water short. Climate change has been defined as a change in the statistical properties of the climate system when considered over long periods of time, regardless of cause. Different factors can shape the climate forces or mechanisms and impact the food production system such as the cattle production field. This paper considers the step by step design and implementation of a water treatment plant of a community cattle farm located in Jadacaquiva under changing climatic conditions. The byproducts of the cattle, as well as the community can also have an impact depending on the decisions taken for the plant. Keywords: water, climate change, treatment plant, food scarcity

  14. Plant nutrients do not covary with soil nutrients under changing climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, Wentao; Elser, James J.; Lü, Xiao-Tao; Wang, Zhengwen; Bai, Edith; Yan, Caifeng; Wang, Chao; Li, Mai-He; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Han, Xingguo; Xu, Zhuwen; Li, Hui; Wu, Yunna; Jiang, Yong

    2015-08-01

    Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) play vital roles in plant growth and development. Yet how climate regimes and soil fertility influence plant N and P stoichiometry is not well understood, especially in the belowground plant parts. Here we investigated plant aboveground and belowground N and P concentrations ([N] and [P]) and their stoichiometry in three dominant genera along a 2200 km long climatic gradient in northern China. Results showed that temperature explained more variation of [N] and [P] in C4 plants, whereas precipitation exerted a stronger influence on [N] and [P] in C3 plants. Both plant aboveground and belowground [N] and [P] increased with decreasing precipitation, and increasing temperatures yet were negatively correlated with soil [N] and [P]. Plant N:P ratios were unrelated with all climate and soil variables. Plant aboveground and belowground [N] followed an allometric scaling relationship, but the allocation of [P] was isometric. These results imply that internal processes stabilize plant N:P ratios and hence tissue N:P ratios may not be an effective parameter for predicting plant nutrient limitation. Our results also imply that past positive relationships between plant and nutrient stocks may be challenged under changing climatic conditions. While any modeling would need to be able to replicate currently observed relationships, it is conceivable that some relationships, such as those between temperature or rainfall and carbon:nutrient ratios, should be different under changing climatic conditions.

  15. A framework for evaluating statistical downscaling performance under changing climatic conditions (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dixon, K. W.; Balaji, V.; Lanzante, J.; Radhakrishnan, A.; Hayhoe, K.; Stoner, A. K.; Gaitan, C. F.

    2013-12-01

    Statistical downscaling (SD) methods may be viewed as generating a value-added product - a refinement of global climate model (GCM) output designed to add finer scale detail and to address GCM shortcomings via a process that gleans information from a combination of observations and GCM-simulated climate change responses. Making use of observational data sets and GCM simulations representing the same historical period, cross-validation techniques allow one to assess how well an SD method meets this goal. However, lacking observations of future, the extent to which a particular SD method's skill might degrade when applied to future climate projections cannot be assessed in the same manner. Here we illustrate and describe extensions to a 'perfect model' experimental design that seeks to quantify aspects of SD method performance both for a historical period (1979-2008) and for late 21st century climate projections. Examples highlighting cases in which downscaling performance deteriorates in future climate projections will be discussed. Also, results will be presented showing how synthetic datasets having known statistical properties may be used to further isolate factors responsible for degradations in SD method skill under changing climatic conditions. We will describe a set of input files used to conduct these analyses that are being made available to researchers who wish to utilize this experimental framework to evaluate SD methods they have developed. The gridded data sets cover a region centered on the contiguous 48 United States with a grid spacing of approximately 25km, have daily time resolution (e.g., maximum and minimum near-surface temperature and precipitation), and represent a total of 120 years of model simulations. This effort is consistent with the 2013 National Climate Predictions and Projections Platform Quantitative Evaluation of Downscaling Workshop goal of supporting a community approach to promote the informed use of downscaled climate projections.

  16. Trophic interactions between viruses, bacteria and nanoflagellates under various nutrient conditions and simulated climate change.

    PubMed

    Bouvy, M; Bettarel, Y; Bouvier, C; Domaizon, I; Jacquet, S; Le Floc'h, E; Montanié, H; Mostajir, B; Sime-Ngando, T; Torréton, J P; Vidussi, F; Bouvier, T

    2011-07-01

    Population dynamics in the microbial food web are influenced by resource availability and predator/parasitism activities. Climatic changes, such as an increase in temperature and/or UV radiation, can also modify ecological systems in many ways. A series of enclosure experiments was conducted using natural microbial communities from a Mediterranean lagoon to assess the response of microbial communities to top-down control [grazing by heterotrophic nanoflagellates (HNF), viral lysis] and bottom-up control (nutrients) under various simulated climatic conditions (temperature and UV-B radiations). Different biological assemblages were obtained by separating bacteria and viruses from HNF by size fractionation which were then incubated in whirl-Pak bags exposed to an increase of 3°C and 20% UV-B above the control conditions for 96 h. The assemblages were also provided with an inorganic and organic nutrient supply. The data show (i) a clear nutrient limitation of bacterial growth under all simulated climatic conditions in the absence of HNF, (ii) a great impact of HNF grazing on bacteria irrespective of the nutrient conditions and the simulated climatic conditions, (iii) a significant decrease in burst size (BS) (number of intracellular lytic viruses per bacterium) and a significant increase of VBR (virus to bacterium ratio) in the presence of HNF, and (iv) a much larger temperature effect than UV-B radiation effect on the bacterial dynamics. These results show that top-down factors, essentially HNF grazing, control the dynamics of the lagoon bacterioplankton assemblage and that short-term simulated climate changes are only a secondary effect controlling microbial processes.

  17. The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

    2016-04-01

    Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the

  18. Foliar photochemical processes and carbon metabolism under favourable and adverse winter conditions in a Mediterranean mixed forest, Catalonia (Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sperlich, D.; Chang, C. T.; Peñuelas, J.; Gracia, C.; Sabaté, S.

    2014-06-01

    Evergreen trees in the Mediterranean region must cope with a wide range of environmental stresses from summer drought to winter cold. The mildness of Mediterranean winters can periodically lead to favourable environmental conditions above the threshold for a positive carbon balance, benefitting evergreen woody species more than deciduous ones. The comparatively lower solar energy input in winter decreases the foliar light saturation point. This leads to a higher susceptibility to photoinhibitory stress especially when chilly (< 12 °C) or freezing temperatures (< 0 °C) coincide with clear skies and relatively high solar irradiances. Nonetheless, the advantage of evergreen species that are able to photosynthesize all year round where a significant fraction can be attributed to winter months, compensates for the lower carbon uptake during spring and summer in comparison to deciduous species. We investigated the ecophysiological behaviour of three co-occurring mature evergreen tree species (Quercus ilex L., Pinus halepensis Mill., and Arbutus unedo L.) during a period of mild winter conditions and their responses to a sudden cold period. The state of the photosynthetic machinery in both periods was thus tested by estimating the foliar photosynthetic potential with CO2 response curves in parallel with chlorophyll fluorescence measurements. The studied evergreen tree species benefited strongly from mild winter conditions by exhibiting extraordinarily high photosynthetic potentials similar to those under spring conditions. A sudden period of frost, however, negatively affected the photosynthetic apparatus, leading to significant decreases in key physiological parameters such as the maximum carboxylation velocity (Vc, max), the maximum photosynthetic electron transport rate (Jmax), and the optimal fluorometric quantum yield of photosystem II (Fv/Fm). This change persisted for several weeks after the cold period despite the recovery of the temperature to the conditions

  19. Foliar photochemical processes and carbon metabolism under favourable and adverse winter conditions in a Mediterranean mixed forest, Catalonia (Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sperlich, D.; Chang, C. T.; Peñuelas, J.; Gracia, C.; Sabaté, S.

    2014-10-01

    Evergreen trees in the Mediterranean region must cope with a wide range of environmental stresses from summer drought to winter cold. The mildness of Mediterranean winters can periodically lead to favourable environmental conditions above the threshold for a positive carbon balance, benefitting evergreen woody species more than deciduous ones. The comparatively lower solar energy input in winter decreases the foliar light saturation point. This leads to a higher susceptibility to photoinhibitory stress especially when chilly (< 12 °C) or freezing temperatures (< 0 °C) coincide with clear skies and relatively high solar irradiances. Nonetheless, the advantage of evergreen species that are able to photosynthesize all year round where a significant fraction can be attributed to winter months, compensates for the lower carbon uptake during spring and summer in comparison to deciduous species. We investigated the ecophysiological behaviour of three co-occurring mature evergreen tree species (Quercus ilex L., Pinus halepensis Mill., and Arbutus unedo L.). Therefore, we collected twigs from the field during a period of mild winter conditions and after a sudden cold period. After both periods, the state of the photosynthetic machinery was tested in the laboratory by estimating the foliar photosynthetic potential with CO2 response curves in parallel with chlorophyll fluorescence measurements. The studied evergreen tree species benefited strongly from mild winter conditions by exhibiting extraordinarily high photosynthetic potentials. A sudden period of frost, however, negatively affected the photosynthetic apparatus, leading to significant decreases in key physiological parameters such as the maximum carboxylation velocity (Vc, max), the maximum photosynthetic electron transport rate (Jmax), and the optimal fluorometric quantum yield of photosystem II (Fv/Fm). The responses of Vc, max and Jmax were highly species specific, with Q. ilex exhibiting the highest and P

  20. Projections of climate conditions that increase coral disease susceptibility and pathogen abundance and virulence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maynard, Jeffrey; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Eakin, C. Mark; Puotinen, Marjetta; Garren, Melissa; Williams, Gareth; Heron, Scott F.; Lamb, Joleah; Weil, Ernesto; Willis, Bette; Harvell, C. Drew

    2015-07-01

    Rising sea temperatures are likely to increase the frequency of disease outbreaks affecting reef-building corals through impacts on coral hosts and pathogens. We present and compare climate model projections of temperature conditions that will increase coral susceptibility to disease, pathogen abundance and pathogen virulence. Both moderate (RCP 4.5) and fossil fuel aggressive (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios are examined. We also compare projections for the onset of disease-conducive conditions and severe annual coral bleaching, and produce a disease risk summary that combines climate stress with stress caused by local human activities. There is great spatial variation in the projections, both among and within the major ocean basins, in conditions favouring disease development. Our results indicate that disease is as likely to cause coral mortality as bleaching in the coming decades. These projections identify priority locations to reduce stress caused by local human activities and test management interventions to reduce disease impacts.

  1. Thermal performance of a Concrete Cool Roof under different climatic conditions of Mexico

    SciTech Connect

    Hernández-Pérez, I.; Álvarez, G.; Gilbert, H.; Xamán, J.; Chávez, Y.; Shah, B.

    2014-11-27

    A cool roof is an ordinary roof with a reflective coating on the exterior surface which has a high solar reflectance and high thermal emittance. These properties let the roof keep a lower temperature than a standard roof under the same conditions. In this work, the thermal performance of a concrete roof with and without insulation and with two colors has been analyzed using the finite volume method. The boundary conditions of the external roof surface were taken from hourly averaged climatic data of four cities. For the internal surface, it is considered that the building is air-conditioned and the inside air has a constant temperature. The interior surface temperature and the heat flux rates into the roofs were obtained for two consecutive days in order to assess the benefits of a cool roofs in different climates.

  2. Thermal performance of a Concrete Cool Roof under different climatic conditions of Mexico

    DOE PAGES

    Hernández-Pérez, I.; Álvarez, G.; Gilbert, H.; ...

    2014-11-27

    A cool roof is an ordinary roof with a reflective coating on the exterior surface which has a high solar reflectance and high thermal emittance. These properties let the roof keep a lower temperature than a standard roof under the same conditions. In this work, the thermal performance of a concrete roof with and without insulation and with two colors has been analyzed using the finite volume method. The boundary conditions of the external roof surface were taken from hourly averaged climatic data of four cities. For the internal surface, it is considered that the building is air-conditioned and themore » inside air has a constant temperature. The interior surface temperature and the heat flux rates into the roofs were obtained for two consecutive days in order to assess the benefits of a cool roofs in different climates.« less

  3. Climate phase drives canopy condition in a large semi-arid floodplain forest.

    PubMed

    Wen, Li; Saintilan, Neil

    2015-08-15

    To maintain and restore the ecological integrity of floodplains, allocating water for environmental benefits (i.e. environmental water) is widely practised globally. To efficiently manage the always limited environmental water, there is pressing need to advance our understanding of the ecological response to long-term climate cycles as evidence grows of intensification of extreme climatic events such as severe drought and heat waves. In this study, we assessed the alleviating effects of artificial flooding on drought impact using the canopy condition of the iconic river red gum forests in Australia's Murray Darling Basin (MDB). To achieve this, we jointly analysed spatial-temporal patterns of NDVI response and drought conditions for the period of 2000-2013, during which the MDB experienced an extreme dry-wet cycle. Our results indicated that while NDVI-derived canopy condition was better at the sites receiving environmental water during the dry phases, both watered and unwatered sites displayed great similarity in seasonality and trends. Furthermore, we did not find any significant difference in NDVI response of the canopy between the sites to suggest significant differences in ecosystem stability and resilience, with watered and unwatered sites showing similar responses to the extreme wet conditions as the drought broke. The highly significant relationship between long-term drought index and NDVI anomaly suggest that climate phase is the main forcing driving canopy condition in semi-arid floodplain forests.

  4. Effects of baseline conditions on the simulated hydrologic response to projected climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koczot, Kathryn M.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.

    2011-01-01

    Changes in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitation data selected to represent twentieth-century climate. The hydrologic effects of the climate projections are evaluated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), which is a watershed hydrology simulation model. The Almanor Catchment in the North Fork of the Feather River basin, California, is used as a case study. Differences and similarities between PRMS simulations of hydrologic components (i.e., snowpack formation and melt, evapotranspiration, and streamflow) are examined, and results indicate that the selection of a specific time period used for baseline conditions has a substantial effect on some, but not all, hydrologic variables. This effect seems to be amplified in hydrologic variables, which accumulate over time, such as soil-moisture content. Results also indicate that uncertainty related to the selection of baseline conditions should be evaluated using a range of different baseline conditions. This is particularly important for studies in basins with highly variable climate, such as the Almanor Catchment.

  5. Physically-based distributed modelling of river runoff under changing climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krylenko, I.; Motovilov, Yu.; Antokhina, E.; Zhuk, V.; Surkova, G.

    2015-05-01

    Physically-based distributed modelling under changing climatic conditions has been carried out for the Northern Dvina River basin using the ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics). The parameters of the model have been adjusted through calibration against runoff hydrographs observed for the period 2000-2009. Validation of the model has been performed for the period of 1970-1989. Both sensitivity analysis and scenario approaches (based on the CMIP3 projections) have been applied to assess possible hydrological consequences of climate change in the basin. It has been shown that for greenhouse gases emissions A2 scenario, averaged for 11 climate models, annual runoff will not change significantly for the future 50 years. But due to increasing of winter precipitation by up to 15%, the volume of flow in the flood period could increase by up to 20%. Earlier beginning of the flood season is expected because of rising of the air temperature.

  6. Impacts of Autonomous Adaptations on the Hydrological Drought Under Climate Change Condition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oki, T.; Satoh, Y.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; KIM, H.; Yoshimura, K.

    2014-12-01

    Because of expected effects of climate changes on quantity and spatial distribution of available water resources, assessment of the changes in the balance between the demand and supply of water resources is critical for some regions. Historically, water deficiencies were overcome by planned water management such as dam regulation and irrigation. But only few studies have investigated the effect of anthropogenic factors on the risk of imbalance of water demand and supply under climate change conditions. Therefore, estimation of the potential deficiency in existing infrastructures under water-environment change is needed to support our society to adapt against future climate changes. This study aims to estimate the impacts of climate changes on the risk of water scarcity projected based on CMIP5 RCP scenarios and the efficiency of autonomous adaptation by anthropogenic water management, such as reservoir operation and irrigation using ground water. First, tendencies of the changes in water scarcity under climate change are estimated by an improved land surface model, which integrates natural water cycles and human activities. Second, the efficiencies of human-developed infrastructure are analyzed by comparing the naturalized and fully anthropogenic offline simulations. It was found that number of hydrological drought days will be increased and decreased in approximately 70 % and 24 % of global land, respectively, considering anthropogenic water management, however, they are approximately 82 % and 16 %, respectively, under naturalized condition without anthropogenic water management. The differences indicate how autonomous adaptation through anthropogenic water management can reduce the impacts of climate change. Also, adequate enhancement of infrastructure is necessary against expected water scarcity under climate change because such positive and negative effects of artificial water regulation show comparable impact on water scarcity risk to that of climate change in

  7. Modeling the effect of adverse environmental conditions and clothing on temperature rise in a human body exposed to radio frequency electromagnetic fields.

    PubMed

    Moore, Stephen M; McIntosh, Robert L; Iskra, Steve; Wood, Andrew W

    2015-02-01

    This study considers the computationally determined thermal profile of a fully clothed, finely discretized, heterogeneous human body model, subject to the maximum allowable reference level for a 1-GHz radio frequency electromagnetic field for a worker, and also subject to adverse environmental conditions, including high humidity and high ambient temperature. An initial observation is that while electromagnetic fields at the occupational safety limit will contribute an additional thermal load to the tissues, and subsequently, cause an elevated temperature, the magnitude of this effect is far outweighed by that due to the conditions including the ambient temperature, relative humidity, and the type of clothing worn. It is envisaged that the computational modeling approach outlined in this paper will be suitably modified in future studies to evaluate the thermal response of a body at elevated metabolic rates, and for different body shapes and sizes including children and pregnant women.

  8. Attribution of soil moisture dynamics - Initial conditions vs. atmospheric forcing and the role of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orth, Rene; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2014-05-01

    The world's climate has started to change more quickly in recent decades and a stronger and faster shift is expected in the future. Even if the public perception is mostly limited to a widespread warming, climate change is a complex phenomenon impacting numerous variables of the climate system in different ways, also depending on time and location. Furthermore, extreme events may change more drastically than the mean climate. There is growing evidence that climate change is mostly man-made. However, it is still a matter of debate to which extent changes of the mean climate but also of particular (extreme) events are due to human impact. These questions are addressed by the growing science of climate attribution. Pointing out the anthropogenic influence on extreme events such as the 2010 Russian heatwave or the 2002 floods in Central Europe may help to support adaptation to climate change. This study investigates soil moisture in Europe in the context of climate change, because of its role as a key variable of the land-climate system and its practical importance for instance to agriculture. To derive soil moisture dynamics from 1984-2007 we use E-OBS forcing data together with SRB radiation data and employ an observation-based approach where soil moisture is computed from a water balance equation in which runoff (normalized with precipitation) and ET (normalized with net radiation) are simple functions of soil moisture. The constant runoff function is prescribed for the whole continent, and the ET function is calibrated using temperature data. After performing a validation of the inferred soil moisture data we use it in order to analyze changes in the likelihood of droughts. Our results show increased drought risk especially in north-eastern Europe and the Mediterranean, whereby the probability of extreme droughts increases stronger as for mild dryness episodes. To assess the potential for drought forecasting we furthermore study the importance of the initial

  9. Water supply patterns in two agricultural areas of Central Germany under climate change conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tölle, M. H.; Moseley, C.; Panferov, O.; Busch, G.; Knohl, A.

    2012-04-01

    Increasing emissions of greenhouse gases and increasing prices for fossil fuels have highlighted the demand for CO2 "neutral" renewable energy sources, e.g. short rotation forestry systems used for bioenergy. These systems might be vulnerable to changes in temperature, precipitation and occurrence of extreme weather events. To estimate success or failure of such short rotation coppices in a certain area we need regional climate projections and risk assessment. Changes of water supply patterns in two agriculturally extensively used regions in Central Germany (around Göttingen and Großfahner) with different climate conditions but both in the temperate climate zone are explored. The study is carried out under present conditions as well as under projected climate change conditions (1971-2100) using A1B and B1 climate scenarios downscaled for Europe. Analysis of precipitation bias shows regional differences: a strong bias in Göttingen area and a weaker bias in the Großfahner area. A bias correction approach, Quantile mapping, is applied to the ensemble results for both areas for winter and summer seasons. By using quantile regression on the seasonal Standardized Precipitation Indices (SPIs) as indicator for water supply conditions we found that precipitation is expected to increase in winter in all quantiles of the distribution for Göttingen area during the 21th century. Heavy precipitation is also expected to increase for Großfahner area suggesting a trend to wetter extremes in winter for the future. This winter precipitation increase could trigger runoff and soil erosion risk enhancing the severity of floods. Increasing winter availability of water could enhance local water supply in spring. For both areas no significant change in summer was found over the whole time period. Although the climate change signal of the SPI indicate mild dryer conditions in summer at the end of the 21st century which may trigger water shortage and summer drying associated with above

  10. Risk of Adverse Health Outcomes & Decrements in Performance due to Inflight Medical Conditions: ExMC Pharmacy Research Plan

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Antonsen, Erik

    2016-01-01

    The Exploration Medical Capabilities (ExMC) Element of NASA's Human Research Program is charged with identifying medical capabilities that can address the challenges of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of disease and injuries that could occur during exploration missions beyond Earth's orbit. Faced with the obstacle of access to in-flight medical care, and limitations of vehicle space, time, and communications; it is necessary to prioritize what medical consumables are manifested for the flight, and which medical conditions are addressed. Studies of astronaut health establish the incidence of common and high risk medical conditions that require medical intervention during long-duration exploration missions. In 2000, the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convened a committee of experts, Committee on Creating a Vision for Space Medicine during Travel beyond Earth Orbit, to examine the issues surrounding astronaut health and safety for long duration space missions. Two themes run throughout the committee's final report: (1) that not enough is known about the risks to human health during long-duration missions beyond Earth's orbit or about what can effectively mitigate those risks to enable humans to travel and work safely in the environment of deep space and (2) that everything reasonable should be done to gain the necessary information before humans are sent on missions of space exploration (IOM, 2001). Although several spaceflight focused pharmaceutical research studies have been conducted, few have provided sufficient data regarding medication usage or potency changes during spaceflight. The Du pharmaceutical stability study assessed medications flown on space shuttles to and from the International Space Station (ISS) from 2006 until 2008; of which some medications were still viable beyond their expiration dates (Du et al, 2011). However, as with many spaceflight studies, the small 'n' associated with this study limits the ability to draw strong conclusions from it

  11. Biological and physical factors controlling aggregate stability under different climatic conditions in Southern Spain.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ángel Gabarrón-Galeote, Miguel; Damián Ruiz-Sinoga, Jose; Francisco Martinez-Murillo, Juan; Lavee, Hanoch

    2013-04-01

    Soil aggregation is a key factor determining the soil structure. The presence of stable aggregates is essential to maintain a good soil structure, that in turn plays an important role in sustaining agricultural productivity and preserving environmental quality. A wide range of physical and biological soil components are involved in the aggregate formation and stabilization, namely clay mineral content; the quantity and quality of organic matter, that can be derived from plants, fungal hyphae, microorganism and soil animals; and the soil water content. Climatic conditions, through their effect on soil water content, vegetation cover and organic matter content, are supposed to affect soil aggregation. Thus the main objective of this research is to analyse the effect of organic matter, clay content and soil water content on aggregate stability along a climatic transect in Southern Spain. This study was conducted in four catchments along a pluviometric gradient in the South of Spain (rainfall depth decreases from west to east from more than 1000 mm year-1 to less than 300 mm year-1) and was based on a methodology approximating the climatic gradient in Mediterranean conditions. The selected sites shared similar conditions of geology, topography and soil use, which allowed making comparisons among them and relating the differences to the pluviometric conditions. In February 2007, 250 disturbed and undisturbed samples from the first 5cm of the soil were collected along the transect. We measured the aggregate stability, organic matter, clay content and bulk density of every sample. In the field we measured rainfall, air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, soil water content, vegetation cover and presence of litter. Our results suggest that aggregate stability is a property determined by a great number of highly variable factors, which can make extremely difficult to predict its behavior taking in

  12. Why were Past North Atlantic Warming Conditions Associated with Drier Climate in the Western United States?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong, C. I.; Potter, G. L.; Montanez, I. P.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Behling, P.; Oster, J. L.

    2014-12-01

    Investigating climate dynamics governing rainfall over the western US during past warmings and coolings of the last glacial and deglaciation is pertinent to understanding how precipitation patterns might change with future global warming, especially as the processes driving the global hydrological reorganization affecting this drought-prone region during these rapid temperature changes remain unresolved. We present model climates of the Bølling warm event (14,500 years ago) and Younger Dryas cool event (12,200 years ago) that i) uniquely enable the assessment of dueling hypothesis about the atmospheric teleconnections responsible for abrupt temperature shifts in the North Atlantic region to variations in moisture conditions across the western US, and ii) show that existing hypotheses about these teleconnections are unsupported. Modeling results show no evidence for a north-south shift of the Pacific winter storm track, and we argue that a tropical moisture source with evolving trajectory cannot explain alternation between wet/dry conditions, which have been reconstructed from the proxy record. Alternatively, model results support a new hypothesis that variations in the intensity of the winter storm track, corresponding to its expansion/contraction, can account for regional moisture differences between warm and cool intervals of the last deglaciation. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the mechanism forcing the teleconnection between the North Atlantic and western US is the same across different boundary conditions. In our simulation, during the last deglaciation, and in simulations of future warming, perturbation of the Rossby wave structure reconfigures the atmospheric state. This reconfiguration affects the Aleutian Low and high-pressure ridge over and off of the northern North American coastline driving variability in the storm track. Similarity between the processes governing the climate response during these distinct time intervals illustrates the robust nature

  13. Hydrological response to changing climate conditions: Spatial streamflow variability in the boreal region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teutschbein, C.; Grabs, T.; Karlsen, R. H.; Laudon, H.; Bishop, K.

    2015-12-01

    In this paper we combined a multimodel ensemble based on 15 regional climate models with a multicatchment approach to explore the hydrologic sensitivity of 14 neighboring and rather similar catchments to changing climate conditions. Current (1982-2010) and future (2062-2090) streamflow was simulated with the HBV model. A diagnostic approach was used, which considered major behavioral catchment functions by using hydrologically relevant signatures related to overall water balance, flow duration curves and hydrograph attributes. Projected increases in temperature and precipitation resulted in increased total available streamflow, with lower spring and summer flows, but substantially higher winter streamflow. Furthermore, significant changes in flow durations with lower chances of both high and low flows can be expected in boreal Sweden in the future. This overall trend in projected streamflow pattern changes was comparable among the analyzed catchments but the magnitude of change differed considerably. This suggests that catchments belonging to the same region can show distinctly different degrees of hydrological responses to the same external climate change signal. We reason that differences in spatially distributed physical catchment properties within catchments are not only of great importance for current streamflow behavior, but also play a major role in the sensitivity of catchments to changing climate conditions.

  14. One-against-All Weighted Dynamic Time Warping for Language-Independent and Speaker-Dependent Speech Recognition in Adverse Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Xianglilan; Sun, Jiping; Luo, Zhigang

    2014-01-01

    Considering personal privacy and difficulty of obtaining training material for many seldom used English words and (often non-English) names, language-independent (LI) with lightweight speaker-dependent (SD) automatic speech recognition (ASR) is a promising option to solve the problem. The dynamic time warping (DTW) algorithm is the state-of-the-art algorithm for small foot-print SD ASR applications with limited storage space and small vocabulary, such as voice dialing on mobile devices, menu-driven recognition, and voice control on vehicles and robotics. Even though we have successfully developed two fast and accurate DTW variations for clean speech data, speech recognition for adverse conditions is still a big challenge. In order to improve recognition accuracy in noisy environment and bad recording conditions such as too high or low volume, we introduce a novel one-against-all weighted DTW (OAWDTW). This method defines a one-against-all index (OAI) for each time frame of training data and applies the OAIs to the core DTW process. Given two speech signals, OAWDTW tunes their final alignment score by using OAI in the DTW process. Our method achieves better accuracies than DTW and merge-weighted DTW (MWDTW), as 6.97% relative reduction of error rate (RRER) compared with DTW and 15.91% RRER compared with MWDTW are observed in our extensive experiments on one representative SD dataset of four speakers' recordings. To the best of our knowledge, OAWDTW approach is the first weighted DTW specially designed for speech data in adverse conditions. PMID:24520317

  15. One-against-all weighted dynamic time warping for language-independent and speaker-dependent speech recognition in adverse conditions.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xianglilan; Sun, Jiping; Luo, Zhigang

    2014-01-01

    Considering personal privacy and difficulty of obtaining training material for many seldom used English words and (often non-English) names, language-independent (LI) with lightweight speaker-dependent (SD) automatic speech recognition (ASR) is a promising option to solve the problem. The dynamic time warping (DTW) algorithm is the state-of-the-art algorithm for small foot-print SD ASR applications with limited storage space and small vocabulary, such as voice dialing on mobile devices, menu-driven recognition, and voice control on vehicles and robotics. Even though we have successfully developed two fast and accurate DTW variations for clean speech data, speech recognition for adverse conditions is still a big challenge. In order to improve recognition accuracy in noisy environment and bad recording conditions such as too high or low volume, we introduce a novel one-against-all weighted DTW (OAWDTW). This method defines a one-against-all index (OAI) for each time frame of training data and applies the OAIs to the core DTW process. Given two speech signals, OAWDTW tunes their final alignment score by using OAI in the DTW process. Our method achieves better accuracies than DTW and merge-weighted DTW (MWDTW), as 6.97% relative reduction of error rate (RRER) compared with DTW and 15.91% RRER compared with MWDTW are observed in our extensive experiments on one representative SD dataset of four speakers' recordings. To the best of our knowledge, OAWDTW approach is the first weighted DTW specially designed for speech data in adverse conditions.

  16. Investigation of factors affecting intra-annual variability of evapotranspiration and streamflow under different climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Dan; Liu, Xiaomang; Zhang, Qi; Liang, Kang; Liu, Changming

    2016-12-01

    Investigating the factors that affect intra-annual evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow variability is important to regional hydrological cycles and energy balance research. In this study, ET and streamflow variability (defined as their standard deviations) are attributed to precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (ET0) and total water storage change (TWSC) based on a Budyko-based approach at 282 catchments in China. The results show that the Budyko-based approach satisfactorily simulates the intra-annual ET and streamflow variability (R2 of 0.63-0.84). The dominant contributor to ET variability is ET0 under energy-limited condition (aridity index ⩽ 0.76), whereas the dominant contributor is precipitation under equitant (0.76 < aridity index ⩽ 1.35) and water-limited conditions (aridity index ⩾ 1.35). The contribution of ET0 to ET variability decreases with the aridity index, whereas the contribution of precipitation to ET variability increases with the aridity index. However, the dominant contributor to streamflow variability is precipitation under all the three climate conditions, which is unaffected by the aridity index. TWSC enhances ET variability under energy-limited condition and inhibits ET variability under water-limited and equitant conditions. However, TWSC inhibits streamflow variability under all the three climate conditions. In addition, geography and vegetation also influence the contributors to ET and streamflow variability. The effects of geography on the contributors to streamflow variability are larger than that to ET variability. In contrast, the impacts of vegetation on the contributors to ET variability are larger than that to streamflow variability. This study demonstrates that the mechanism of ET variability under different climate conditions is much more complex than that of streamflow variability, suggesting that more attention should be given to ET for water-energy modeling, hydrological predictions and local water management.

  17. Comparison of winter wheat yield sensitivity to climate variables under irrigated and rain-fed conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Dengpan; Shen, Yanjun; Zhang, He; Moiwo, Juana P.; Qi, Yongqing; Wang, Rende; Pei, Hongwei; Zhang, Yucui; Shen, Huitao

    2016-09-01

    Crop simulation models provide alternative, less time-consuming, and cost-effective means of determining the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change. In this study, two dynamic mechanistic models, CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis) and APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator), were used to simulate the yield of wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) under well irrigated (CFG) and rain-fed (YY) conditions in relation to different climate variables in the North China Plain (NCP). The study tested winter wheat yield sensitivity to different levels of temperature, radiation, precipitation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration under CFG and YY conditions at Luancheng Agro-ecosystem Experimental Stations in the NCP. The results from the CERES and APSIM wheat crop models were largely consistent and suggested that changes in climate variables influenced wheat grain yield in the NCP. There was also significant variation in the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to climate variables under different water (CFG and YY) conditions. While a temperature increase of 2°C was the threshold beyond which temperature negatively influenced wheat yield under CFG, a temperature rise exceeding 1°C decreased winter wheat grain yield under YY. A decrease in solar radiation decreased wheat grain yield under both CFG and YY conditions. Although the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to precipitation was small under the CFG, yield decreased significantly with decreasing precipitation under the rainfed YY treatment. The results also suggest that wheat yield under CFG linearly increased by ≈3.5% per 60 ppm (parts per million) increase in CO2 concentration from 380 to 560 ppm, and yield under YY increased linearly by ≈7.0% for the same increase in CO2 concentration.

  18. Effect of femoral head size on the wear of metal on metal bearings in total hip replacements under adverse edge-loading conditions.

    PubMed

    Al-Hajjar, Mazen; Fisher, John; Williams, Sophie; Tipper, Joanne L; Jennings, Louise M

    2013-02-01

    Metal-on-metal (MoM) bearings have shown low-wear rates under standard hip simulator conditions; however, retrieval studies have shown large variations in wear rates and mechanisms. High-wear in vivo has caused catastrophic complications and has been associated with steep cup-inclination angle (rotational malpositioning). However, increasing the cup-inclination angle in vitro has not replicated the increases in wear to the same extent as those observed in retrievals. Clinically relevant wear rates, patterns, and particles were observed in vitro for ceramic-on-ceramic bearings when microseparation (translational malpositioning) conditions were introduced into the gait cycle. In the present study, 28 and 36-mm MoM bearings were investigated under adverse conditions. Increasing the cup angle from 45° to 65° resulted in a significant increase in the wear rate of the 28 mm bearings. However, for the 36 mm bearings, head-rim contact did not occur under the steep cup-angle condition, and the wear rate did not increase. The introduction of microseparation to the gait cycle significantly increased the wear rate of the MoM bearings. Cup angle and head size did not influence the wear rate under microseparation conditions. This study indicated that high-in vivo wear rates were associated with edge loading due to rotational malpositioning such as high-cup-inclination angle and translational malpositioning that could occur due to several surgical factors. Translational malpositioning had a more dominant effect on the wear rate. Preclinical simulation testing should be undertaken with translational and rotational malpositioning conditions as well as standard walking cycle conditions defined by the ISO standard.

  19. Climatic conditions cause spatially dynamic polygyny thresholds in a large mammal.

    PubMed

    Manning, Jeffrey A; McLoughlin, Philip D

    2017-03-01

    The polygyny threshold (PT) is a critical transition point in the sexual selection process for many organisms in natural populations, characterizing when females choose to mate with an already mated male over an unmated one to improve fitness. Understanding its causes and consequences is therefore of high interest. While both theoretical and empirical work suggest that the degree of polygyny within a species is plastic and a function of male inequality, the functional relationship between underlying availability of resources occupied by breeding males under variable climatic conditions and the dynamics of PTs across space and time has received less attention. Here, we use a standardized measure of male mating inequality as the culmination of female mate choices to analyse how spatially dynamic PTs in a naturally regulated feral horse (Equus ferus caballus) population emerge along a geographic gradient in a known, limiting resource (freshwater) each year from variable climatic conditions. Polygyny threshold distance from permanent freshwater increased with increasing precipitation during the breeding season of each year, suggesting a relationship between annual resource availability and female mate choice. The mechanism by which climatic conditions underpin the spatial dynamics of PTs was likely through precipitation providing ephemeral freshwater sources across the study area that effectively weakened the gradient in availability of permanent freshwater, thereby providing mating males that occupied home ranges far from permanent water with access to this limiting resource and enabling them to attract and retain females. Increased precipitation also coincided with a decreased proportion of males in the population that experienced sexual selection pressure attributed to female mate choice in relation to the acquisition and/or defence of freshwater sources. Climatic conditions caused spatial shifts in PTs annually along the geographic gradient in resource availability

  20. Evaluating global reanalysis datasets for provision of boundary conditions in regional climate modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moalafhi, Ditiro B.; Evans, Jason P.; Sharma, Ashish

    2016-11-01

    Regional climate modelling studies often begin by downscaling a reanalysis dataset in order to simulate the observed climate, allowing the investigation of regional climate processes and quantification of the errors associated with the regional model. To date choice of reanalysis to perform such downscaling has been made based either on convenience or on performance of the reanalyses within the regional domain for relevant variables such as near-surface air temperature and precipitation. However, the only information passed from the reanalysis to the regional model are the atmospheric temperature, moisture and winds at the location of the boundaries of the regional domain. Here we present a methodology to evaluate reanalyses derived lateral boundary conditions for an example domain over southern Africa using satellite data. This study focusses on atmospheric temperature and moisture which are easily available. Five commonly used global reanalyses (NCEP1, NCEP2, ERA-I, 20CRv2, and MERRA) are evaluated against the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder satellite temperature and relative humidity over boundaries of two domains centred on southern Africa for the years 2003-2012 inclusive. The study reveals that MERRA is the most suitable for climate mean with NCEP1 the next most suitable. For climate variability, ERA-I is the best followed by MERRA. Overall, MERRA is preferred for generating lateral boundary conditions for this domain, followed by ERA-I. While a "better" LBC specification is not the sole precursor to an improved downscaling outcome, any reduction in uncertainty associated with the specification of LBCs is a step in the right direction.

  1. Impact of regional afforestation on climatic conditions in metropolitan areas: case study of Copenhagen

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stysiak, Aleksander Andrzej; Bergen Jensen, Marina; Mahura, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    Like most other places, European metropolitan areas will face a range of climate-related challenges over the next decades that may influence the nature of urban life across the continent. Under future urbanization and climate change scenarios the well-being and comfort of the urban population might become progressively compromised. In urban areas, the effects of the warming climate will be accelerated by combination of Urban Heat Island effect (UHI) and extreme heat waves. The land cover composition directly influences atmospheric variability, and can either escalate or downscale the projected changes. Vegetation, forest ecosystems in particular, are anticipated to play an important role in modulating local and regional climatic conditions, and to be vital factor in the process of adapting cities to warming climate. This study investigates the impact of forest and land-cover change on formation and development of temperature regimes in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Area (CPH-MA). Potential to modify the UHI effect in CPH-MA is estimated. Using 2009 meteorological data, and up-to-date 2012 high resolution land-cover data we employed the online integrated meteorology-chemistry/aerosols Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - High Resolution Limited Area Model) modeling system to simulate air temperature (at 2 meter height) fields for a selected period in July 2009. Employing research tools (such as METGRAF meteorological software and Geographical Information Systems) we then estimated the influence of different afforestation and urbanization scenarios with new forests being located after the Danish national afforestation plan, after proximity to the city center, after dominating wind characteristics, and urbanization taking place as densification of the existing conurbation. This study showed the difference in temperature up to 3.25°C, and the decrease in the spatial extent of temperature fields up to 68%, depending on the selected scenario. Performed simulations demonstrated

  2. Uncertainties in Predicting Rice Yield by Current Crop Models Under a Wide Range of Climatic Conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Li, Tao; Hasegawa, Toshihiro; Yin, Xinyou; Zhu, Yan; Boote, Kenneth; Adam, Myriam; Bregaglio, Simone; Buis, Samuel; Confalonieri, Roberto; Fumoto, Tamon; Gaydon, Donald; Marcaida, Manuel, III; Nakagawa, Hiroshi; Oriol, Philippe; Ruane, Alex C.; Ruget, Francoise; Singh, Balwinder; Singh, Upendra; Tang, Liang; Tao, Fulu; Wilkens, Paul; Yoshida, Hiroe; Zhang, Zhao; Bouman, Bas

    2014-01-01

    Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluated 13 rice models against multi-year experimental yield data at four sites with diverse climatic conditions in Asia and examined whether different modeling approaches on major physiological processes attribute to the uncertainties of prediction to field measured yields and to the uncertainties of sensitivity to changes in temperature and CO2 concentration [CO2]. We also examined whether a use of an ensemble of crop models can reduce the uncertainties. Individual models did not consistently reproduce both experimental and regional yields well, and uncertainty was larger at the warmest and coolest sites. The variation in yield projections was larger among crop models than variation resulting from 16 global climate model-based scenarios. However, the mean of predictions of all crop models reproduced experimental data, with an uncertainty of less than 10 percent of measured yields. Using an ensemble of eight models calibrated only for phenology or five models calibrated in detail resulted in the uncertainty equivalent to that of the measured yield in well-controlled agronomic field experiments. Sensitivity analysis indicates the necessity to improve the accuracy in predicting both biomass and harvest index in response to increasing [CO2] and temperature.

  3. Uncertainties in predicting rice yield by current crop models under a wide range of climatic conditions.

    PubMed

    Li, Tao; Hasegawa, Toshihiro; Yin, Xinyou; Zhu, Yan; Boote, Kenneth; Adam, Myriam; Bregaglio, Simone; Buis, Samuel; Confalonieri, Roberto; Fumoto, Tamon; Gaydon, Donald; Marcaida, Manuel; Nakagawa, Hiroshi; Oriol, Philippe; Ruane, Alex C; Ruget, Françoise; Singh, Balwinder-; Singh, Upendra; Tang, Liang; Tao, Fulu; Wilkens, Paul; Yoshida, Hiroe; Zhang, Zhao; Bouman, Bas

    2015-03-01

    Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluated 13 rice models against multi-year experimental yield data at four sites with diverse climatic conditions in Asia and examined whether different modeling approaches on major physiological processes attribute to the uncertainties of prediction to field measured yields and to the uncertainties of sensitivity to changes in temperature and CO2 concentration [CO2 ]. We also examined whether a use of an ensemble of crop models can reduce the uncertainties. Individual models did not consistently reproduce both experimental and regional yields well, and uncertainty was larger at the warmest and coolest sites. The variation in yield projections was larger among crop models than variation resulting from 16 global climate model-based scenarios. However, the mean of predictions of all crop models reproduced experimental data, with an uncertainty of less than 10% of measured yields. Using an ensemble of eight models calibrated only for phenology or five models calibrated in detail resulted in the uncertainty equivalent to that of the measured yield in well-controlled agronomic field experiments. Sensitivity analysis indicates the necessity to improve the accuracy in predicting both biomass and harvest index in response to increasing [CO2 ] and temperature.

  4. Nitrogen partitioning in oak leaves depends on species, provenance, climate conditions and soil type.

    PubMed

    Hu, B; Simon, J; Kuster, T M; Arend, M; Siegwolf, R; Rennenberg, H

    2013-01-01

    Climate-tolerant tree species and/or provenances have to be selected to ensure the high productivity of managed forests in Central Europe under the prognosticated climate changes. For this purpose, we studied the responses of saplings from three oak species (i.e. Quercus robur, Q. petraea and Q. pubescens) and provenances of different climatic origin (i.e. low or high rainfall, low or high temperature habitats) with regard to leaf nitrogen (N) composition as a measure of N nutrition. Saplings were grown in model ecosystems on either calcareous or acidic soil and subjected to one of four treatments (control, drought, air warming or a combination of drought and air warming). Across species, oak N metabolism responded to the influence of drought and/or air warming with an increase in leaf amino acid N concentration at the expense of structural N. Moreover, provenances or species from drier habitats were more tolerant to the climate conditions applied, as indicated by an increase in amino acid N (comparing species) or soluble protein N (comparing provenances within a species). Furthermore, amino acid N concentrations of oak leaves were significantly higher on calcareous compared to acidic soil. From these results, it can be concluded that seeds from provenances or species originating from drier habitats and - if available - from calcareous soil types may provide a superior seed source for future forest establishment.

  5. Runoff sensitivity over Asia: Role of climate variables and initial soil conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Di; Mishra, Ashok K.; Zhang, Ke

    2017-02-01

    We applied statistical and numerical modeling approach to evaluate the sensitivity of runoff (ROF) to climate variables using Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) data and regional climate model (RegCM4). It was observed that ROF is more sensitive to precipitation (P) compared to other analyzed hydroclimatic variables (potential evapotranspiration (PET), 2 m air temperature (T2m), solar radiation (Rn), specific humidity (SSH), and wind speed (U), especially over India, Indochina, and south-north-northeast China semihumid-humid climate transition zones based on the higher correlation coefficient (>0.7) and elasticity (>2). The abnormal positive T2m-ROF observed over Tibetan Plateau region (TP) may be due to its high topography and cold weather regime, while positive PET-ROF over India and north China-southeast Mongolia regions can be attributed to the stronger influence of local land-atmosphere interactions. Soil moisture (SM) reflects high correlation with runoff, especially over the climate transition zones (i.e., India and Indochina-southeast China). The initial wet (dry) soil moisture (SM) anomalies lead to an increase (decrease) of ROF in each season with the hot spots mainly located in middle to high latitudes (spring), TP and northeast (summer and autumn), and Indochina (autumn) regions. Such influence can persist almost 4 months in spring while only about 1 month in autumn during dry and wet conditions. The wet condition has stronger influence at beginning but dissipates quickly, while the dry condition can last longer within the same season. The impact of initial soil temperature anomalies on ROF is weaker than SM, with the only obvious ROF changes located over south China (spring and summer) and north India (autumn).

  6. Temporal variability of soil water repellency in field conditions under humid Mediterranean climate (South of Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinez-Murillo, Juan F.; Gabarron-Galeote, Miguel A.; Ruiz-Sinoga, Jose D.

    2013-04-01

    Soil water repellency (SWR) has become an important field of scientific study because of its effects on soil hydrological behavior, including reduced matrix infiltration, development of fingered flow in structural or textural preferential flow paths, irregular wetting fronts, and increased runoff generation and soil erosion. The aim of this study is to evaluate the temporal variability of SWR in Mediterranean rangeland under humid Mediterranean climatic conditions (Tª=14.5 °C; P=1,010 mm y-1) in South of Spain. Every month from September 2008 to May 2009 (rainy season), soil moisture and SWR was measured in field conditions by means of gravimetric method and Water Drop Penetration Test, respectively. The entire tests were performed in differente eco-geomorphological conditions in the experimental site: North and South aspect hillslopes and beneath shrub and bare soil in every of them. The results indicate that: i) climatic conditions seem to be more transcendent than the vegetal cover for explaining the temporal variability of SWR in field conditions; ii) thus, SWR appears to be controlled by the antecedent rainfall and soil moisture; iii) more severity SWR were observed in patches characterized by sandier soils and/or greater organic matter contents; and iv) the factor 'hillslope aspect' was not found very influential in the degree of SWR.

  7. Conditioning of Flow Projections under Climate Change on Hydrologic Signatures within the GLUE Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Todorovic, Andrijana; Plavsic, Jasna; Despotovic, Jovan

    2016-04-01

    Climate change impact on water resources is generally quantified in terms of relative changes in characteristic flows (e.g. annual runoff, median annual flows, etc.) over a future period compared to the baseline one. These changes are estimated under the assumed emission scenarios and with one or more modelling chains (combinations of the Global and Regional Climate Models, and a hydrological model). Since different modelling chains yield different projections, estimates of these relative changes are uncertain. High prediction uncertainty is reflected in a wide 90 per cent prediction uncertainty band (90PPU) or in a distribution that resembles the uniform distribution. Therefore, research in robustness of the modelling chains has been conducted. The goal of the research is to appoint higher probabilities to the projections obtained by the more robust chains, and in that way reduce the uncertainty in flow projections under climate change. In this research, the hydrologic projections are conditioned on the hydrologic signatures within the GLUE framework. Namely, a relative change obtained with a modelling chain is assigned a likelihood depending on the performance of the chain in terms of the hydrologic signatures over the baseline period. High flow projections (2nd percentile of the daily flows) are conditioned on the high-segment of the flow duration curve (FDC), projections of the median flows are conditioned on the FDC mid-segment slope, and the projections of the low flows are conditioned on the FDC low-segment. The projections of total annual runoff are conditioned on the entire FDC. The likelihoods are quantified in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) evaluated from the FDCs of the flows simulated by the modelling chains and the observed FDC. The methodology presented is applied to develop flow projections in the Kolubara River catchment in Serbia over the mid 21st century (2041-2070). Hydrologic projections are obtained by the HBV

  8. Flight in Adverse Environmental Condition

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1989-01-01

    to 0) exposed. llaysia A)OO. During MS approach in poor visibilityt thundeatorms and heavy rain Aircraft undershot And came to rest 1000 water * before...It calcul des avions I Is rafalt, tiles oot slot-s ith utillis Pour trotrwer dts vs~turs d"Intensiti do ratsle I PoatUt des bn. Devuls Son appart -ion...mean wind Is rather difficult. Using earth fixed sensors, a temporal *vraging Is performed for each measuring point. Out the question for the right

  9. Effects of Simulated Climate Conditions on Phosphorus Cycling in an Annual Grassland Ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mellett, T.; Paytan, A.; Defforey, D.; Roberts, K.

    2014-12-01

    The Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment is a long-term study of the effects of simulated climate change conditions on an annual grassland ecosystem. The different treatments consist of elevated atmospheric CO2 levels, enhanced nitrate deposition, as well as higher temperatures and precipitation rates. A representative portion of the above ground vegetation from each plot is harvested. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of different climate conditions on the phosphorus content and phosphorus cycling in terrestrial plants. Since phosphorus only has one stable isotope, the δ18O signature in phosphate is used as a proxy to investigate phosphorus cycling. Although this technique has been successful in determining phosphorous cycling in aquatic systems, only a few studies have used this approach for terrestrial ecosystems. We analyzed the δ18O of the most abundant grass from each of the plots and treatments. The δ18O values of each sample are compared to elemental budgets of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorous for correlation as well as soil enzyme activities. and the combination of measures are assessed as indicators for phosphorus limitation in each respective treatment site and provide a better understanding of phosphorus cycling in annual grasslands and the potential effects of climate change on phosphorus cycling.

  10. Effects of Simulated Climate Conditions on Phosphorus Cycling in an Annual Grassland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mellett, T.; Defforey, D.; Paytan, A.

    2012-12-01

    The Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment is a long-term study of the effects of simulated climate change conditions on an annual grassland. The different treatments consist of elevated atmospheric CO2 levels, enhanced nitrate deposition, as well as higher temperatures and precipitation rates. The above ground vegetation from each plot is harvested and separated by species, with the dominant species being selected for analysis. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of different climate conditions on the phosphorus content and phosphorus cycling in terrestrial plants. Phosphorus content in grass samples is determined using the colorimetric reaction (soluble reactive phosphorus content), as well as combustion and acid digestion (total phosphorus content). Since phosphorus only has one stable isotope, the δ18O signature in phosphate is used as a proxy to investigate phosphorus cycling in this ecosystem. These three tools will be combined and evaluated as indicators for phosphorus limitation in each respective treatment site and provide a better understanding of phosphorus cycling in annual grasslands and the potential effects of climate change on phosphorus cycling.

  11. Simulating runoff under changing climatic conditions: Revisiting an apparent deficiency of conceptual rainfall-runoff models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fowler, Keirnan J. A.; Peel, Murray C.; Western, Andrew W.; Zhang, Lu; Peterson, Tim J.

    2016-03-01

    Hydrologic models have potential to be useful tools in planning for future climate variability. However, recent literature suggests that the current generation of conceptual rainfall runoff models tend to underestimate the sensitivity of runoff to a given change in rainfall, leading to poor performance when evaluated over multiyear droughts. This research revisited this conclusion, investigating whether the observed poor performance could be due to insufficient model calibration and evaluation techniques. We applied an approach based on Pareto optimality to explore trade-offs between model performance in different climatic conditions. Five conceptual rainfall runoff model structures were tested in 86 catchments in Australia, for a total of 430 Pareto analyses. The Pareto results were then compared with results from a commonly used model calibration and evaluation method, the Differential Split Sample Test. We found that the latter often missed potentially promising parameter sets within a given model structure, giving a false negative impression of the capabilities of the model. This suggests that models may be more capable under changing climatic conditions than previously thought. Of the 282[347] cases of apparent model failure under the split sample test using the lower [higher] of two model performance criteria trialed, 155[120] were false negatives. We discuss potential causes of remaining model failures, including the role of data errors. Although the Pareto approach proved useful, our aim was not to suggest an alternative calibration strategy, but to critically assess existing methods of model calibration and evaluation. We recommend caution when interpreting split sample results.

  12. Effect of altered boundary conditions on GCM studies of the climate of the last glacial maximum

    SciTech Connect

    Hyde, W.T.; Peltier, W.R.

    1993-05-21

    The authors address a problem discovered recently with global climate model results for the last glacial maximum. Bard, et. al. pointed out a mismatch in boundary conditions entered into the model. Ice sheet conditions were derived from CLIMAP based on a time 18000 radiocarbon years ago. It was assumed that radiocarbon and sidereal dates coincide. However it was recently shown that the sidereal data of the last glacial maximum is nearer 21kbp. The authors perform model calculations to attempt to evaluate the seriousness of this mismatch in terms of calculated results from the global climate model runs for the last glacial maximum. The authors find that one result of the timing mismatch is a sizable difference in northern hemisphere summer and Eurasian winter climates. These changes should have a major impact on circulation patterns in the GCM simulations. In addition new ice sheet model programs are available now which appear to improve on CLIMAP models. The authors urge that these GCM simulations be rerun.

  13. Invited review: Influence of climatic conditions on the development, performance, and health of calves.

    PubMed

    Roland, L; Drillich, M; Klein-Jöbstl, D; Iwersen, M

    2016-04-01

    The objective of this review is to provide the reader with an overview of thermoregulatory mechanisms and the influence of climatic conditions in different housing systems on the development, performance, and health of calves. Thermic stress is observed in association with extreme temperatures and large temperature variations, but other variables such as relative humidity and wind speed can also contribute to thermic stress. Thermoregulation in calves is similar to that in adult cattle, but especially dystocial calves are more prone to heat loss. Heat or cold stress results in direct economic losses because of increased calf mortality and morbidity, as well as indirect costs caused by reduced weight gain, performance, and long-term survival. The climatic conditions in a variety of housing systems, associated health problems, and strategies to mitigate thermic stress are discussed in this review. The goal of housing is to alleviate the effect of climate on calves and provide a microclimate. Adequate ventilation with fresh air is essential to reduce respiratory disease. Common practices such as raising calves in individual outdoor enclosures have been challenged lately. Recent research seeks to evaluate the suitability of group housing under practical, economic, and animal welfare considerations. Limited results for reducing thermic stress can be achieved by simple measures such as shades or shelter, but additional heat or cold stress relieving strategies can be required depending on the housing system.

  14. A new large initial condition ensemble to assess avoided impacts in a climate mitigation scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanderson, B. M.; Tebaldi, C.; Knutti, R.; Oleson, K. W.

    2014-12-01

    It has recently been demonstrated that when considering timescales of up to 50 years, natural variability may play an equal role to anthropogenic forcing on subcontinental trends for a variety of climate indicators. Thus, for many questions assessing climate impacts on such time and spatial scales, it has become clear that a significant number of ensemble members may be required to produce robust statistics (and especially so for extreme events). However, large ensemble experiments to date have considered the role of variability in a single scenario, leaving uncertain the relationship between the forced climate trajectory and the variability about that path. To address this issue, we present a new, publicly available, 15 member initial condition ensemble of 21st century climate projections for the RCP 4.5 scenario using the CESM1.1 Earth System Model, which we propose as a companion project to the existing 40 member CESM large ensemble which uses the higher greenhouse gas emission future of RCP8.5. This provides a valuable data set for assessing what societal and ecological impacts might be avoided through a moderate mitigation strategy in contrast to a fossil fuel intensive future. We present some early analyses of these combined ensembles to assess to what degree the climate variability can be considered to combine linearly with the underlying forced response. In regions where there is no detectable relationship between the mean state and the variability about the mean trajectory, then linear assumptions can be trivially exploited to utilize a single ensemble or control simulation to characterize the variability in any scenario of interest. We highlight regions where there is a detectable nonlinearity in extreme event frequency, how far in the future they will be manifested and propose mechanisms to account for these effects.

  15. Climatic conditions for the last Neanderthals: Herpetofaunal record of Gorham’s Cave, Gibraltar.

    PubMed

    Blain, Hugues-Alexandre; Gleed-Owen, Chris P; López-García, Juan Manuel; Carrión, José Sebastian; Jennings, Richard; Finlayson, Geraldine; Finlayson, Clive; Giles-Pacheco, Francisco

    2013-04-01

    Gorham’s Cave is located in the British territory of Gibraltar in the southernmost end of the Iberian Peninsula. Recent excavations, which began in 1997, have exposed an 18 m archaeological sequence that covered the last evidence of Neanderthal occupation and the first evidence of modern human occupation in the cave. By applying the Mutual Climatic Range method on the amphibian and reptile assemblages, we propose here new quantitative data on the terrestrial climatic conditions throughout the latest Pleistocene sequence of Gorham’s Cave. In comparison with current climatic data, all mean annual temperatures were about 1.6-1.8 degrees C lower in this region. Winters were colder and summers were similar to today. Mean annual precipitation was slightly lower, but according to the Aridity Index of Gaussen there were only four dry months during the latest Pleistocene as opposed to five dry months today during the summer. The climate was Mediterranean and semi-arid (according to the Aridity Index of Dantin-Revenga) or semi-humid (according to the Aridity Index of Martonne). The atmospheric temperature range was higher during the latest Pleistocene, mainly due to lower winter temperatures. Such data support recent bioclimatic models, which indicate that high rainfall levels may have been a significant factor in the late survival of Neanderthal populations in southern Iberia. The Solutrean levels of Gorham’s Cave and climate records from cores in the Alboran Sea indicate increasing aridity from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3-2. Because Neanderthals seem to have been associated with woodland habitats, we propose that lessening rainfall may have caused the degradation of large areas of forest and may have made late surviving Neanderthal populations more vulnerable outside southern refuges like the Rock of Gibraltar.

  16. Assessing potential changes of chestnut productivity in Europe under future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calheiros, T.; Pereira, M. G.; Pinto, J. G.; Caramelo, L.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Dacamara, C. C.

    2012-04-01

    The European chestnut is cultivated for its nuts and wood. Several studies point to the dependency of chestnut productivity on specific soil and climate characteristics. For instance, this species dislikes chalky and poorly drained soils, appreciates sedimentary, siliceous and acidic to neutral soils. Chestnut trees also seems to appreciate annual mean values of sunlight spanning between 2400 and 2600 h, rainfall ranging between 600 and 1500 mm, mean annual temperature between 9 and 13°C, 27°C being the mean of the maximum temperature (Heiniger and Conedera, 1992; Gomes-Laranjo et al.,2008). The amount of heat between May and October must range between 1800°D and 2400°D (Dinis et al., 2011) . In Poland, the growing season is defined as the period of time when the mean 24-h temperature is greater than 5°C (Wilczynski and Podalski, 2007). In Portugal, maximum photosynthetic activity occurs at 24-28°C for adult trees, but exhibits more than 50% of termoinhibition when the air temperature is above 32°C, which is frequent during summer (Gomes- Laranjo et al., 2006, 2008). Recently Pereira et al (2011) identified a set of meteorological variables/parameters with high impact on chestnut productivity. The main purpose of this work is to assess the potential impacts of future climate change on chestnut productivity in Portugal as well as on European chestnut orchards. First, observed data from the European Climate assessment (ECA) and simulations with the Regional Circulation Model (RCM) COSMO-CLM for recent climate conditions are used to assess the ability of the RCM to model the actual meteorological conditions. Then, ensemble projections from the ECHAM5/COSMO-CLM model chain for two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) are used to estimate the values of relevant meteorological variables and parameters und future climate conditions. Simulated values are then compared with those obtained for present climate. Results point to changes in the spatial and temporal

  17. Why do active and stabilized dunes coexist under the same climatic conditions?

    PubMed

    Yizhaq, Hezi; Ashkenazy, Yosef; Tsoar, Haim

    2007-05-04

    Sand dunes can be active (mobile) or stable, mainly as a function of vegetation cover and wind power. However, there exists as yet unexplained evidence for the coexistence of bare mobile dunes and vegetated stabilized dunes under the same climatic conditions. We propose a model for dune vegetation cover driven by wind power that exhibits bistabilty and hysteresis with respect to the wind power. For intermediate wind power, mobile and stabilized dunes can coexist, whereas for low (or high) wind power they can be fixed (or mobile). Climatic change or human intervention can turn active dunes into stable ones and vice versa; our model predicts that prolonged droughts with stronger winds can result in dune reactivation.

  18. Factors Promoting a Cool Cambrian Climate: Role of Land Surface Conditions and Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shellito, L. J.

    2011-12-01

    In light of recent work suggesting episodic cooling during the Late Cambrian (~500 Ma), an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity is utilized to evaluate the roles of Late Cambrian continental configuration, mountain height, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on Earth's climate. The Planetary Simulator (PLASIM), developed at the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg, is utilized at T21 spectral resolution (5.6° latitude x 5.6° longitude) with a 50 m deep slab ocean in four experiments. The first three experiments are run with a Late Cambrian continental configuration. Two experiments are run with an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 10 x pre-industrial (2800 ppm). This is in the range estimated for the Late Cambrian by carbon cycle modeling studies. One of these experiments utilizes a flat topography (CAMB_FLAT), and the other, includes mountains (CAMB_MTN). A third experiment is identical to CAMB_MTN, but CO2 is set to 280 ppm (CAMB_COLD). All Cambrian experiments are integrated without any vegetation, and with solar luminosity reduced by 6%. The Cambrian experiments also utilize a uniform land surface boundary condition consisting of sand with an albedo of 0.37. A fourth scenario was run with pre-industrial boundary conditions (modern geography and vegetation and 280 ppm CO2) as a control experiment (CONTROL). Despite the high level of CO2, global average temperatures in CAMB_FLAT and CAMB_MTN are cooler than that of CONTROL. In CAMB_COLD, the oceans freeze over completely and 'snowball Earth' conditions are present. These results highlight the importance of vegetation, land surface albedo, and continental position in maintaining an equable climate in modern times. They also suggest that a drop in greenhouse gases during the Cambrian, whether due to reduced natural emissions from biologic or volcanic sources, or an increase in biologic activity in the oceans, could have been responsible for the initiation of cooler climatic conditions.

  19. Influence of Surface Condition over Siberia on the East Asian Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arai, M.; Kimoto, M.

    2006-12-01

    Using observational data and atmospheric general circulation model, relationship between surface condition over Siberia and circulation over East Asia is examined. We notice particularly the influence of springtime surface temperature over Siberia, which becomes high when the snowmelt is encouraged in situ. It is found that when the surface temperature over Siberia is high in April, blocking events over northeastern Siberia and the Okhotsk Sea in May and June occur more frequently than climatology. In the year when the surface temperature over Siberia is high, a jet stream over the north of Siberia is formed in the upper troposphere corresponding to the enhanced meridional temperature gradient, and the polar frontal jet is observed earlier than climatology. Blocking anticyclones over northeastern Siberia and the Okhotsk Sea is considered to be formed by Rossby wave propagation along the polar frontal jet in early summer. Therefore, the early establishment of the polar frontal jet is consistent with the increase of the blocking frequency. Associated with the enhancement of blocking activity is the intensification of the surface Okhotsk high, and cold anomaly to its south over the northern part of Japan during the early summer season. The amplified Okhotsk high also causes the enhancement of the Baiu front, which is a part of East Asian monsoon. The finding of this study suggests monitoring the springtime surface condition over northern Siberia as one of the promising predictors for the early summer climate over East Asia. We also examined the future climate change on the Eurasian Continent and East Asia due to the global warming, using a general circulation model. The surface temperature over Siberia increases and springtime snowmelt is enhanced under doubled CO2 condition. Summertime blocking anticyclones are also increased and the Baiu front is enhanced, compared with the simulation of the present climate. These results are manifestation of relationship between

  20. Effects of climatic conditions and soil properties on Cabernet Sauvignon berry growth and anthocyanin profiles.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Guo; He, Yan-Nan; Yue, Tai-Xin; Wang, Jun; Zhang, Zhen-Wen

    2014-09-02

    Climatic conditions and soil type have significant influence on grape ripening and wine quality. The reported study was conducted in two "Cabernet Sauvignon (Vitis vinifera L.V)" vineyards located in Xinjiang, a semiarid wine-producing region of China during two vintages (2011 and 2012). The results indicate that soil and climate affected berry growth and anthocyanin profiles. These two localities were within a distance of 5 km from each other and had soils of different physical and chemical composition. For each vineyard, the differences of anthocyanin concentrations, and parameters concerning berry growth and composition between the two years could be explained by different climatic conditions. Soil effect was studied by investigation of differences in berry composition and anthocyanin profiles between the two vineyards in the same year, which could be explained mainly by the different soil properties, vine water and nitrogen status. Specifically, the soils with less water and organic matter produced looser clusters, heavier berry skins and higher TSS, which contributed to the excellent performance of grapes. Compared with 2011, the increases in anthocyanin concentrations for each vineyard in 2012 could be attributed to smaller number of extreme temperature (>35 °C) days and rainfall, lower vine water status and N level. The explanation for higher anthocyanin concentrations in grape skins from the soils with less water and organic matter could be the vine status differences, lighter berry weight and heavier skin weight at harvest. In particular, grapes from the soils with less water and organic matter had higher levels of 3'5'-substituded, O-methylated and acylated anthocyanins, which represented a positive characteristic conferring more stable pigmentation to the corresponding wine in the future. The present work clarifies the effects of climate and soil on berry growth and anthocyanin profiles, thus providing guidance for production of high-quality wine grapes

  1. Thermal State Of Permafrost In Urban Environment Under Changing Climatic Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Streletskiy, D. A.; Grebenets, V. I.; Kerimov, A. G.; Kurchatova, A.; Andruschenko, F.; Gubanov, A.

    2015-12-01

    Risks and damage, caused by deformation of building and constructions in cryolithozone, are growing for decades. Worsening of cryo-ecological situation and loss of engineering-geocryological safety are induced by both technogenic influences on frozen basement and climate change. In such towns on permafrost as Vorkuta, Dixon more than 60% of objects are deformed, in Yakutsk, Igarka- nearly 40%, in Norilsk, Talnakh, Mirnij 35%, in old indigenous villages - approximately 100%; more than 80% ground dams with frozen cores are in poor condition. This situation is accompanied by activation of dangerous cryogenic processes. For example in growing seasonally-thaw layer is strengthening frost heave of pipeline foundation: only on Yamburg gas condensate field (Taz Peninsula) are damaged by frost heave and cut or completely replaced 3000 - 5000 foundations of gas pipelines. Intensity of negative effects strongly depends on regional geocryology, technogenic loads and climatic trends, and in Arctic we see a temperature rise - warming, which cause permafrost temperature rise and thaw). In built areas heat loads are more diverse: cold foundations (under the buildings with ventilated cellars or near termosyphons) are close to warm areas with technogenic beddings (mainly sandy), that accumulate heat, close to underground collectors for communications, growing thaw zones around, close to storages of snows, etc. Note that towns create specific microclimate with higher air temperature. So towns are powerful technogenic (basically, thermal) presses, placed on permafrost; in cooperation with climate changes (air temperature rise, increase of precipitation) they cause permafrost degradation. The analysis of dozens of urban thermal fields, formed in variable cryological and soil conditions, showed, that nearly 70% have warming trend, 20% - cooling and in 10% of cases the situation after construction is stable. Triggered by warming of climate changes of vegetation, depth and temperature of

  2. Lactobacillus acidophilus La5 and Bifidobacterium lactis Bb12 cell surface hydrophobicity and survival of the cells under adverse environmental conditions.

    PubMed

    Shakirova, Laisana; Grube, Mara; Gavare, Marita; Auzina, Lilija; Zikmanis, Peteris

    2013-01-01

    Changes in the cell surface hydrophobicity (CSH) of probiotic bacteria Lactobacillus acidophilus La5 and Bifidobacterium lactis Bb12 and the survival of these cells were examined in response to varied cultivation conditions and adverse environmental conditions. An inverse linear relationship (P < 0.01) was detected between the CSH of intact L. acidophilus La5 and B. lactis Bb12 and survival of cells subjected to subsequent freezing/thawing, long-term storage or exposure to mineral and bile acids. The observed relationships were supported by significant correlations between the CSH and changes in composition of the cell envelopes (proteins, lipids and carbohydrates) of L. acidophilus La5 and B. lactis Bb12 examined using FT-IR spectroscopy and conventional biochemical analysis methods. The results also suggest that the estimates of hydrophobicity, being a generalized characteristic of cell surfaces, are important parameters to predict the ability of intact probiotic bacteria to endure extreme environments and therefore should be monitored during cultivation. A defined balance of cell components, which can be characterized by the reduced CSH values, apparently helps to ensure the resistance, improved viability and hence the overall probiotic properties of bacteria.

  3. Should flood regimes change in a warming climate? The role of antecedent moisture conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woldemeskel, Fitsum; Sharma, Ashish

    2016-07-01

    Assessing changes to flooding is important for designing new and redesigning existing infrastructure to withstand future climates. While there is speculation that floods are likely to intensify in the future, this question is often difficult to assess due to inadequate records on streamflow extremes. An alternate way of determining possible extreme flooding is through assessment of the two key factors that lead to the intensification of floods: the intensification of causative rainfall and changes in the wetness conditions prior to rainfall. This study assesses global changes in the antecedent wetness prior to extreme rainfall. Our results indicate a significant increase in the antecedent moisture in Australia and Africa over the last century; however, there was also a decrease in Eurasia and insignificant change in North America. Given the nature of changes found in this study, any future flood assessment for global warming conditions should take into account antecedent moisture conditions.

  4. Behavior of crushed rock aggregates used in road construction exposed to cold climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuznetsova, Elena; Pérez Fortes, Ana Patricia; Anastasio, Sara; Willy Danielsen, Svein

    2016-04-01

    Presently, about 90% of the aggregate production in Europe comes from naturally occurring resources: quarries and pits. Due to the increased demand for sand and gravel for construction purposes, not only in building but also in road construction, the last decade has seen a significant trend towards the use of more crushed rock aggregates. This resource has been more and more preferred to sand and gravel thanks to the significant technological development of its process and use phase. The performance of the aggregates is generally evaluated depending on three main factors: the geological origin (mineral composition, texture, structure, degree of weathering), the aggregate processing (crushing, sieving, washing, storing) and the user technology for a specific area of use (e.g. road construction, asphalt binders). Nevertheless climatic conditions should carefully be taken into account in application such as road construction. Large temperature gradients and high levels of humidity are known to significantly affect the performance of the material. Although the problem is, at least in the asphalt field, considered mostly from the binder point of view, this article aims to investigate the effect of aggregate properties on road performance in cold climatic conditions. Two different climatic areas will be taken into account: Norway and Spain. While both these countries are listed among the main European producers of aggregates, they represent significantly different climatic regions. While Norwegian weather is characterized by humid cold winters and relatively mild summers, Spain has temperate climate with cold regions in mountainous and internal areas. Both countries have been significantly affected by climate change with increasing temperature variations and instability. At the same time, similar winter maintenance measures, including the use of a considerable amount of solid and liquid chemicals to avoid ice formation (e.g. NaCl) and/or to provide better friction, are

  5. Multisensor System for Isotemporal Measurements to Assess Indoor Climatic Conditions in Poultry Farms

    PubMed Central

    Bustamante, Eliseo; Guijarro, Enrique; García-Diego, Fernando-Juan; Balasch, Sebastián; Hospitaler, Antonio; Torres, Antonio G.

    2012-01-01

    The rearing of poultry for meat production (broilers) is an agricultural food industry with high relevance to the economy and development of some countries. Periodic episodes of extreme climatic conditions during the summer season can cause high mortality among birds, resulting in economic losses. In this context, ventilation systems within poultry houses play a critical role to ensure appropriate indoor climatic conditions. The objective of this study was to develop a multisensor system to evaluate the design of the ventilation system in broiler houses. A measurement system equipped with three types of sensors: air velocity, temperature and differential pressure was designed and built. The system consisted in a laptop, a data acquisition card, a multiplexor module and a set of 24 air temperature, 24 air velocity and two differential pressure sensors. The system was able to acquire up to a maximum of 128 signals simultaneously at 5 second intervals. The multisensor system was calibrated under laboratory conditions and it was then tested in field tests. Field tests were conducted in a commercial broiler farm under four different pressure and ventilation scenarios in two sections within the building. The calibration curves obtained under laboratory conditions showed similar regression coefficients among temperature, air velocity and pressure sensors and a high goodness fit (R2 = 0.99) with the reference. Under field test conditions, the multisensor system showed a high number of input signals from different locations with minimum internal delay in acquiring signals. The variation among air velocity sensors was not significant. The developed multisensor system was able to integrate calibrated sensors of temperature, air velocity and differential pressure and operated succesfully under different conditions in a mechanically-ventilated broiler farm. This system can be used to obtain quasi-instantaneous fields of the air velocity and temperature, as well as differential

  6. The influence of different environmental and climatic conditions on vegetated aeolian dune landscape development and response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nield, Joanna M.; Baas, Andreas C. W.

    2008-11-01

    Aeolian dune field development in coastal and semi-arid environments is a function of complex ecogeomorphic interactions which are sensitive to fluctuations in climatic and environmental conditions. We explore the relationships between ecological and geomorphic processes in the development of these landscape patterns and speculate on their response to variations in vegetation vitality and sediment transport capacity, indicating possible consequences of climate and land use change, using the Discrete ECogeomorphic Aeolian Landscape (DECAL) cellular automaton algorithm. This algorithm models dune field behaviour that reflects long-term trends prevalent in palaeo-records, but also elucidates possible evolutionary progressions, relaxation period sequences and threshold sensitivities. The landscape response is sensitive both to the perturbation itself and the state of the system when the disturbance occurs. Response amplitude decreases in simulated systems with reduced mobility unless an external disturbance mimicking fire or land clearance is applied concurrently with a reduction in growth vigour triggering a threshold type response when sufficient vegetation is removed. The model demonstrates that the relative response characteristics of the multiple vegetation types and their mutual feedback with geomorphic processes impart a significant influence on landscape equilibrium or attractor states. Fast growing vegetation enables the formation of hairpin (long-walled) parabolic dune systems, which eventually become sediment starved and stabilise, whereas inhospitable conditions inhibiting vegetation growth contribute to the development of active transgressive transverse dune fields. This simple vegetated dune model illustrates the power and versatility of a cellular automaton approach for exploring thresholds, sensitivities and possible evolutionary trajectories associated with the interactions between ecology, geomorphology and climatic conditions in complex earth surface

  7. Climate change reverses the competitive balance of ash and beech seedlings under simulated forest conditions.

    PubMed

    Saxe, H; Kerstiens, G

    2005-07-01

    This study identifies the important role of climate change and photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) in the regenerative competence of ash and beech seedlings in 12 inter- and intra-specific competition designs in simulated mixed ash-beech forest gaps under conditions of non-limiting soil volume, water and nutrient supply. The growth conditions simulated natural forest conditions as closely as possible. Simulations were performed by growing interacting seedling canopies for one season in temperature-regulated closed-top chambers (CTCs). Eight CTCs were used in a factorial design with replicate treatments of [CO2] x temperature x PPFD x competition design. [CO2] tracked ambient levels or was 360 micromol mol-1 higher. Temperature tracked ambient levels or was 2.8 degrees C higher. PPFD on two plant tables inside each CTC was 16% and 5% of open-field levels, respectively, representative of typical light flux levels in a natural forest gap. In several of the competition designs, climate change made the ash seedlings grow taller than the beech seedlings and, at the same time, attain a larger leaf area and a larger total biomass. Advantages of this type for ash were found particularly at lower PPFD. There was a positive synergistic interaction of elevated temperature x [CO2] for both species, but more so for ash. There are many uncertainties when a study of chambered seedlings is to be projected to real changes in natural forests. Nevertheless, this study supports a possible future shift towards ash in north European, unmanaged, mixed ash-beech forests in response to the predicted climate change.

  8. Aerosol microphysics modules in the framework of the ECHAM5 climate model - intercomparison under stratospheric conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kokkola, H.; Hommel, R.; Kazil, J.; Niemeier, U.; Partanen, A.-I.; Feichter, J.; Timmreck, C.

    2009-03-01

    In this manuscript, we present an intercomparison of three different aerosol microphysics modules that are implemented in the climate model ECHAM5. The comparison was done between the modal aerosol microphysics module M7, which is currently the default aerosol microphysical core in ECHAM5, and two sectional aerosol microphysics modules SALSA, and SAM2. A detailed aerosol microphycical model MAIA was used as a reference model to evaluate the results of the aerosol microphysics modules with respect to sulphate aerosol. The ability of the modules to describe the development of the aerosol size distribution was tested in a zero dimensional framework. We evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches under different types of stratospheric conditions. Also, we present an improved method for the time integration in M7 and study how the setup of the modal approach affects the evolution of the aerosol size distribution. Intercomparison simulations were carried out with varying SO2 concentrations from background conditions to extreme values arising from stratospheric injections of large volcanic eruptions. Under background conditions, all microphysics modules were in good agreement describing the shape of the size distribution but the scatter between the model results increased with increasing SO2 concentrations. In particular for the volcanic case the module setups have to be redefined to be applied in global model simulations capturing respective sulphate particle formation events. Summarized, this intercomparison serves as a review on the different aerosol microphysics modules which are currently available for the climate model ECHAM5.

  9. The influence of the sun, moon, climate and economic conditions on crisis incidence.

    PubMed

    Snoyman, P; Holdstock, T L

    1980-10-01

    Investigated the relationship between 2,344 cases of crisis incidence over a 1-year period (1976) and geophysical, climatic and seasonal conditions. Results revealed an intricate interactive effect between the variables of sex, nature of crisis, period of analysis, and environmental conditions. Males crisis became more likely, with downward economic trends or decreased solar activity. In contrast to female incidence of crisis, which peaked in spring, that of males peaked in autumn. Increased solar activity was related strongly to the incidence of crisis experienced by people who were retarded, abused drugs and were guilty of assault and/or rape. The waxing of the moon was related closely to cases of assault and/or rape, while retardates were influenced further by the moisture content in the air. Temporal considerations revealed a positive relationship between full moon and crisis incidence on alternate months only. Generally, the increased cloud cover, rainfall and temperature in summer, gave rise to more crisis consultations. Finally, geophysical, climatic and economic conditions also were seen to act in conjunction with each other to influence crisis incidence.

  10. Sustainability of socio-hydro system with changing value and preference to an uncertain future climate and economic conditions.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roobavannan, Mahendran; Kandasamy, Jaya; Vigneswaran, Saravanamuththu; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2016-04-01

    Water-human systems are coupled and display co-evolutionary dynamics influenced by society's values and preference. This has been observed in the Murrumbidgee basin, Australia where water usage initially focused on agriculture production and until mid-1990's favoured agriculture. This turned around as society became more concerned about the degradation of ecosystems and ultimately water was reallocated back towards the environment. This new water management adversely impacted the agriculture sector and created economic stress in the basin. The basin communities were able to transform and cope with water allocation favouring the environment through sectoral transformation facilitated by movement of capital in a free economy, supported by appropriate strategies and funding. This was helped by the adaptive capacity of people through reemployment in other economic sectors of the basin economy, unemployment for a period of time and migration out of the basin, and crop diversification. This study looks to the future and focuses on how water managers could be informed and prepare for un-foreseen issues coming out of societies changing values and preferences and emerging as different systems in the basin interact with each other at different times and speed. The issues of this type that concern the Murray Darling Basin Authority include a renewed focus and priority on food production due to food scarcity; increased impact and frequency of natural disasters (eg. climate change); regional economic diversification due to the growth of peri-urban development in the basin; institutional capacity for water reform due to new political paradigms (eg. new water sharing plans); and improvement in science and technology (eg. farm practices, water efficiency, water reuse). To undertake this, the study uses a coupled socio-hydrological dynamical system that model the major drivers of changing economic conditions, society values and preference, climatic condition and science and

  11. Small Scale Solar Cooling Unit in Climate Conditions of Latvia: Environmental and Economical Aspects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaunzems, Dzintars; Veidenbergs, Ivars

    2010-01-01

    The paper contributes to the analyses from the environmental and economical point of view of small scale solar cooling system in climate conditions of Latvia. Cost analyses show that buildings with a higher cooling load and full load hours have lower costs. For high internal gains, cooling costs are around 1,7 €/kWh and 2,5 €/kWh for buildings with lower internal gains. Despite the fact that solar cooling systems have significant potential to reduce CO2 emissions due to a reduction of electricity consumption, the economic feasibility and attractiveness of solar cooling system is still low.

  12. Sensitivity of Latent Heating Profiles to Environmental Conditions: Implications for TRMM and Climate Research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) as a part of NASA's Earth System Enterprise is the first mission dedicated to measuring tropical rainfall through microwave and visible sensors, and includes the first spaceborne rain radar. Tropical rainfall comprises two-thirds of global rainfall. It is also the primary distributor of heat through the atmosphere's circulation. It is this circulation that defines Earth's weather and climate. Understanding rainfall and its variability is crucial to understanding and predicting global climate change. Weather and climate models need an accurate assessment of the latent heating released as tropical rainfall occurs. Currently, cloud model-based algorithms are used to derive latent heating based on rainfall structure. Ultimately, these algorithms can be applied to actual data from TRMM. This study investigates key underlying assumptions used in developing the latent heating algorithms. For example, the standard algorithm is highly dependent on a system's rainfall amount and structure. It also depends on an a priori database of model-derived latent heating profiles based on the aforementioned rainfall characteristics. Unanswered questions remain concerning the sensitivity of latent heating profiles to environmental conditions (both thermodynamic and kinematic), regionality, and seasonality. This study investigates and quantifies such sensitivities and seeks to determine the optimal latent heating profile database based on the results. Ultimately, the study seeks to produce an optimized latent heating algorithm based not only on rainfall structure but also hydrometeor profiles.

  13. A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Escobar, Luis E; Ryan, Sadie J; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Finkelstein, Julia L; King, Christine A; Qiao, Huijie; Polhemus, Mark E

    2015-09-01

    Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control.

  14. Sensitivity of salmonid freshwater life history in western US streams to future climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Beer, W Nicholas; Anderson, James J

    2013-08-01

    We projected effects of mid-21st century climate on the early life growth of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) in western United States streams. Air temperature and snowpack trends projected from observed 20th century trends were used to predict future seasonal stream temperatures. Fish growth from winter to summer was projected with temperature-dependent models of egg development and juvenile growth. Based on temperature data from 115 sites, by mid-21st century, the effects of climate change are projected to be mixed. Fish in warm-region streams that are currently cooled by snow melt will grow less, and fish in suboptimally cool streams will grow more. Relative to 20th century conditions, by mid-21st century juvenile salmonids' weights are expected to be lower in the Columbia Basin and California Central Valley, but unchanged or greater in coastal and mountain streams. Because fish weight affects fish survival, the predicted changes in weight could impact population fitness depending on other factors such as density effects, food quality and quantity changes, habitat alterations, etc. The level of year-to-year variability in stream temperatures is high and our analysis suggests that identifying effects of climate change over the natural variability will be difficult except in a few streams.

  15. Climate and Health Vulnerability to Vector-Borne Diseases: Increasing Resilience under Climate Change Conditions in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ceccato, P.

    2015-12-01

    The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the City University of New York (CUNY) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in collaboration with NASA SERVIR are developing tools to monitor climate variables (precipitation, temperature, vegetation, water bodies, inundation) that help projects in Africa to increase resilience to climate change for vector-borne diseases ( malaria, trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, and schistosomiasis). Through the development of new products to monitor precipitation, water bodies and inundation, IRI, CUNY and JPL provide tools and capacity building to research communities; ministries of health; the WMO Global Framework for Climate and Services; and World Health Organization in Africa to: 1) Develop research teams' ability to appropriately use climate data as part of their research 2) Enable research teams and ministries to integrate climate information into social and economic drivers of vulnerability and opportunities for adaptation to climate change 3) Inform better policies and programs for climate change adaptation. This oral presentation will demonstrate how IRI, CUNY, and JPL developed new products, tools and capacity building to achieve the three objectives mentioned above with examples in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Malawi.

  16. Groundwater-supported evapotranspiration within glaciated watersheds under conditions of climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cohen, D.; Person, M.; Daannen, R.; Locke, S.; Dahlstrom, D.; Zabielski, V.; Winter, T.C.; Rosenberry, D.O.; Wright, H.; Ito, E.; Nieber, J.L.; Gutowski, W.J.

    2006-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effects of geology and geomorphology on surface-water/-groundwater interactions, evapotranspiration, and recharge under conditions of long-term climatic change. Our analysis uses hydrologic data from the glaciated Crow Wing watershed in central Minnesota, USA, combined with a hydrologic model of transient coupled unsaturated/saturated flow (HYDRAT2D). Analysis of historical water-table (1970-1993) and lake-level (1924-2002) records indicates that larger amplitude and longer period fluctuations occur within the upland portions of watersheds due to the response of the aquifer system to relatively short-term climatic fluctuations. Under drought conditions, lake and water-table levels fell by as much as 2-4 m in the uplands but by 1 m in the lowlands. The same pattern can be seen on millennial time scales. Analysis of Holocene lake-core records indicates that Moody Lake, located near the outlet of the Crow Wing watershed, fell by as much as 4 m between about 4400 and 7000 yr BP. During the same time, water levels in Lake Mina, located near the upland watershed divide, fell by about 15 m. Reconstructed Holocene climate as represented by HYDRAT2D gives somewhat larger drops (6 and 24 m for Moody Lake and Lake Mina, respectively). The discrepancy is probably due to the effect of three-dimensional flow. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out to study how aquifer hydraulic conductivity and land-surface topography can influence water-table fluctuations, wetlands formation, and evapotranspiration. The models were run by recycling a wet year (1985, 87 cm annual precipitation) over a 10-year period followed by 20 years of drier and warmer climate (1976, 38 cm precipitation). Model results indicated that groundwater-supported evapotranspiration accounted for as much as 12% (10 cm) of evapotranspiration. The aquifers of highest hydraulic conductivity had the least amount of groundwater-supported evapotranspiration owing to a deep water table. Recharge

  17. Correlation between recruitment and fall condition of age-0 pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) from the eastern Bering Sea under varying climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heintz, Ron A.; Siddon, Elizabeth C.; Farley, Edward V.; Napp, Jeffrey M.

    2013-10-01

    Fishery managers require an understanding of how climate influences recruitment if they are to separate the effects of fishing and climate on production. The southeastern Bering Sea offers opportunities to understand climate effects on recruitment because inter-annual oscillations in ice coverage set up warm or cold conditions for juvenile fish production. Depth-averaged temperature anomalies in the Bering Sea indicate the past nine years have included three warm (2003-2005), an average (2006), and five cold (2007-2011) years. We examined how these climatic states influenced the diet quality and condition (size, energy density and total energy) of young-of-the-year (YOY) pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in fall. The implications of fall condition were further examined by relating condition prior to winter to the number of age-1 recruits-per-spawner the following summer (R/S). The percentage of lipid in pollock diets was threefold higher in cold years compared with warm years, but stomach fullness did not vary. Consequently, fish energy densities were 33% higher in cold years (P<0.001) than in warm years. In contrast, neither fish size (P=0.666), nor total energy (P=0.197) varied with climatic condition. However, total energy was significantly (P=0.007) and positively correlated with R/S (R2=0.736). We conclude that recruitment to age-1 in the southeastern Bering Sea is improved under environmental conditions that produce large, energy dense YOY pollock in fall.

  18. Storm surges in the Mediterranean Sea: Variability and trends under future climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Androulidakis, Yannis S.; Kombiadou, Katerina D.; Makris, Christos V.; Baltikas, Vassilis N.; Krestenitis, Yannis N.

    2015-09-01

    The trends of storm surge extremes in the Mediterranean Sea for a period of 150 years (1951-2100) are explored, using a high-resolution storm surge model. Numerical simulations are forced by the output of regional climate simulations with RegCM3, which uses IPCC's historical data on greenhouse gasses emissions for the (past) period 1951-2000, and IPCC's A1B climate scenario for the (future) period 2001-2100. Comparisons between observations and modeling results show good agreement and confirm the ability of our model to estimate the response of the sea surface to future climatic conditions. We investigate the future trends, the variability and frequency of local extremes and the main forcing mechanisms that can induce strong surges in the Mediterranean region. Our results support that there is a general decreasing trend in storminess under the considered climate scenario, mostly related to the frequency of local peaks and the duration and spatial coverage of the storm surges. The northward shift in the location of storm tracks is a possible reason for this storminess attenuation, especially over areas where the main driving factor of extreme events is the inverted barometer effect. However, the magnitudes of sea surface elevation extremes may increase in several Mediterranean sub-regions, i.e., Southern Adriatic, Balearic and Tyrrhenian Seas, during the 21st century. There are clear distinctions in the contributions of winds and pressure fields to the sea level height for various regions of the Mediterranean Sea, as well as on the seasonal variability of extreme values; the Aegean and Adriatic Seas are characteristic examples, where high surges are predicted to be mainly induced by low pressure systems and favorable winds, respectively.

  19. Establishment and performance of an experimental green roof under extreme climatic conditions.

    PubMed

    Klein, Petra M; Coffman, Reid

    2015-04-15

    Green roofs alter the surface energy balance and can help in mitigating urban heat islands. However, the cooling of green roofs due to evapotranspiration strongly depends on the climatic conditions, and vegetation type and density. In the Southern Central Plains of the United States, extreme weather events, such as high winds, heat waves and drought conditions pose challenges for successful implementation of green roofs, and likely alter their standard performance. The National Weather Center Experimental Green Roof, an interdisciplinary research site established in 2010 in Norman, OK, aimed to investigate the ecological performance and surface energy balance of green roof systems. Starting in May 2010, 26 months of vegetation studies were conducted and the radiation balance, air temperature, relative humidity, and buoyancy fluxes were monitored at two meteorological stations during April-October 2011. The establishment of a vegetative community trended towards prairie plant dominance. High mortality of succulents and low germination of grasses and herbaceous plants contributed to low vegetative coverage. In this condition succulent diversity declined. Bouteloua gracilis and Delosperma cooperi showed typological dominance in harsh climatic conditions, while Sedum species experienced high mortality. The plant community diversified through volunteers such as Euphorbia maculate and Portulaca maculate. Net radiation measured at a green-roof meteorological station was higher than at a control station over the original, light-colored roofing material. These findings indicate that the albedo of the green roof was lower than the albedo of the original roofing material. The low vegetative coverage during the heat and drought conditions in 2011, which resulted in the dark substrate used in the green roof containers being exposed, likely contributed to the low albedo values. Nevertheless, air temperatures and buoyancy fluxes were often lower over the green roof indicating

  20. Regional climate response to land surface changes after harvest in the North China Plain under present and possible future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cho, Mee-Hyun; Boo, Kyung-On; Lee, Johan; Cho, Chunho; Lim, Gyu-Ho

    2014-04-01

    In this study, we investigated the impacts of land use alterations from harvesting practices on the regional surface climate over the North China Plain. The surface climate responses after harvest in June in regions where double-cropping is practiced were evaluated using observations and model simulations with the global climate model HadGEM2-Atmosphere. Responses were modeled under both present and possible future climate conditions. In the model, double-cropping was represented using the monthly varying fraction of vegetation. This contributed to an improvement in the model simulation over East Asia. Modeling results showed that the land surface was warmer and drier after harvest, and these simulation results were consistent with observations. The bare soil surface after harvest in June had biophysical impacts on the surface climate that were mediated by decreasing evapotranspiration and latent heat flux effects, which increased surface air temperatures and decreased surface humidity. An increase in shortwave radiation also contributed to the rise in temperatures. Under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios for possible future climate conditions, land conversion induced additional warming in addition to greenhouse gases induced global warming. The RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 scenarios demonstrated a warming of 1.0°C and 1.4°C due to harvesting practices in June, respectively. The response magnitude was affected by the climate conditions in each RCP. Our results suggest that potential impacts of harvest on the local climate need to be considered in future projections of CO2-induced warming on a regional scale.

  1. The Impact of Organic Amendments on Soil Properties Under Mediterranean Climatic Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hueso Gonzalez, Paloma; Francisco Martinez Murillo, Juan; Damian Ruiz Sinoga, Jose

    2014-05-01

    Soil erosion and unsustainable land uses produce adverse effect on SOC content. Soil management techniques and corrections can be applied for soil recovery, especially, with afforestation purposes. This study presents the short term effects of the application of different treatments and amendments on soil properties for soils included in several sets of closed plots located in the experimental area of Pinarillo (Nerja, Spain). The analysed soil properties were: pH, EC, Organic Carbon, total Nitrogen and total Carbon. In order to verify possible differences, we applied the test of Mann-Whitney U in corroboration with the previous homogeneity test of variance. The result of each strategy set compared to the initial condition shows at least one significant modification in the analysed soil properties. Electrical conductivity was the most changeable soil property respect to the initial condition. Similarly, organic carbon content and total organic carbon remained quite similar. However, when all of the strategy sets are compared among them, total carbon was the most significantly changeable property. Mulching, polymers and urban residue seem to highly modify the soil initial conditions. Although soil physic-chemical parameters generally used to evaluate soil quality change very slowly. The analysed soil properties shows significant differences between dry and wet season. This fact, could be indicating the effect of certain seasonality as it is usual in Mediterranean condition.

  2. Future climate impact on unfavorable meteorological conditions for the dispersion of air pollution in Brussels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Troch, Rozemien; Berckmans, Julie; Giot, Olivier; Hamdi, Rafiq; Termonia, Piet

    2015-04-01

    Belgium is one of the several countries in Europe where air quality levels of different pollutants such as ozone, NOx, and Particulate Matter (PM) still exceed the prescribed European norms multiple times a year (EEA, 2014). These pollution peaks have a great impact on health and environment, in particular in large cities and urban environments. It is well known that observed concentrations of air pollutants are strongly influenced by emissions and meteorological conditions and therefore is sensitive to climate change. As the effects of global climate change are increasingly felt in Belgium, policy makers express growing interest in quantifying its effect on air pollution and the effort required to meet the air quality targets in the next years and decennia (Lauwaet et al., 2014). In this study, two different stability indices are calculated for a 9-year period using present (1991-1999) and future (2047-2055) climate data that has been obtained from a dynamically downscaling of Global Climate Model data from the Arpège model using the ALARO model at 4 km spatial resolution. The ALARO model is described in detail in previous validation studies from De Troch et al. (2013) and Hamdi et al. (2013). The first index gives a measure of the horizontal and vertical transport of nonreactive pollutants in stable atmospheric conditions and has been proposed and tested by Termonia and Quinet (2004). It gives a characteristic length scale l which is the ratio of the mean horizontal wind speed and the Brunt-Väisälä frequency. In this way low values for l in the lower part of the boundary layer during an extended time span of 12 hours, correspond to calm situations and a stable atmosphere and thus indicate unfavorable conditions for the dispersion of air pollution. This transport index is similar to an index used in an old Pasquill-type scheme but is more convenient to use to detect the strongest pollution peaks. The well known Pasquill classes are also calculated in order to

  3. Simulation of Deep Water Renewal in Crater Lake, Oregon, USA under Current and Future Climate Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piccolroaz, S.; Wood, T. M.; Wherry, S.; Girdner, S.

    2015-12-01

    We applied a 1-dimensional lake model developed to simulate deep mixing related to thermobaric instabilities in temperate lakes to Crater Lake, a 590-m deep caldera lake in Oregon's Cascade Range known for its stunning deep blue color and extremely clear water, in order to determine the frequency of deep water renewal in future climate conditions. The lake model was calibrated with 6 years of water temperature profiles, and then simulated 10 years of validation data with an RMSE ranging from 0.81°C at 50 m depth to 0.04°C at 350-460 m depth. The simulated time series of heat content in the deep lake accurately captured extreme years characterized by weak and strong deep water renewal. The lake model uses wind speed and lake surface temperature (LST) as boundary conditions. LST projections under six climate scenarios from the CMIP5 intermodel comparison project (2 representative concentration pathways X 3 general circulation models) were evaluated with air2water, a simple lumped model that only requires daily values of downscaled air temperature. air2water was calibrated with data from 1993-2011, resulting in a RMSE between simulated and observed daily LST values of 0.68°C. All future climate scenarios project increased water temperature throughout the water column and a substantive reduction in the frequency of deepwater renewal events. The least extreme scenario (CNRM-CM5, RCP4.5) projects the frequency of deepwater renewal events to decrease from about 1 in 2 years in the present to about 1 in 3 years by 2100. The most extreme scenario (HadGEM2-ES, RCP8.5) projects the frequency of deepwater renewal events to be less than 1 in 7 years by 2100 and lake surface temperatures never cooling to less than 4°C after 2050. In all RCP4.5 simulations the temperature of the entire water column is greater than 4°C for increasing periods of time. In the RCP8.5 simulations, the temperature of the entire water column is greater than 4°C year round by the year 2060 (HadGEM2

  4. The Milankovitch theory and climate sensitivity. I - Equilibrium climate model solutions for the present surface conditions. II - Interaction between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the climate system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Neeman, Binyamin U.; Ohring, George; Joseph, Joachim H.

    1988-01-01

    A seasonal climate model was developed to test the climate sensitivity and, in particular, the Milankovitch (1941) theory. Four climate model versions were implemented to investigate the range of uncertainty in the parameterizations of three basic feedback mechanisms: the ice albedo-temperature, the outgoing long-wave radiation-temperature, and the eddy transport-meridional temperature gradient. It was found that the differences between the simulation of the present climate by the four versions were generally small, especially for annually averaged results. The climate model was also used to study the effect of growing/shrinking of a continental ice sheet, bedrock sinking/uplifting, and sea level changes on the climate system, taking also into account the feedback effects on the climate of the building of the ice caps.

  5. Climate and Population Health Vulnerabilities to Vector-Borne Diseases: Increasing Resilience Under Climate Change Conditions in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ceccato, P.; McDonald, K. C.; Podest, E.; De La Torre Juarez, M.; Kruczkiewicz, A.; Lessel, J.; Jensen, K.; Thomson, M. C.

    2014-12-01

    The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the City University of New York (CUNY) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in collaboration with NASA SERVIR are developing tools to monitor climate variables (precipitation, temperature, vegetation, water bodies, inundation) that help projects in Africa to increase resilience to climate change for vector-borne diseases (i.e. malaria, trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, and schistosomiasis). Through the development of new products to monitor precipitation, water bodies and inundation, IRI, CUNY and JPL provide tools and capacity building to research communities, ministries of health and World Health Organization in Africa to: 1) Develop research teams' ability to appropriately use climate data as part of their research 2) Enable research teams and ministries to integrate climate information into social and economic drivers of vulnerability and opportunities for adaptation to climate change 3) Inform better policies and programs for climate change adaptation. This oral presentation will demonstrate how IRI, CUNY, and JPL developed new products, tools and capacity building to achieve the three objectives mentioned above.

  6. Addressing drought conditions under current and future climates in the Jordan River region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Törnros, T.; Menzel, L.

    2014-01-01

    The Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index (SPEI) was applied in order to address the drought conditions under current and future climates in the Jordan River region located in the southeastern Mediterranean area. In the first step, the SPEI was derived from spatially interpolated monthly precipitation and temperature data at multiple timescales: accumulated precipitation and monthly mean temperature were considered over a number of timescales - for example 1, 3, and 6 months. To investigate the performance of the drought index, correlation analyses were conducted with simulated soil moisture and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from remote sensing. A comparison with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), i.e., a drought index that does not incorporate temperature, was also conducted. The results show that the 6-month SPEI has the highest correlation with simulated soil moisture and best explains the interannual variation of the monthly NDVI. Hence, a timescale of 6 months is the most appropriate when addressing vegetation growth in the semi-arid region. In the second step, the 6-month SPEI was derived from three climate projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario A1B. When comparing the period 2031-2060 with 1961-1990, it is shown that the percentage of time with moderate, severe and extreme drought conditions is projected to increase strongly. To address the impact of drought on the agricultural sector, the irrigation water demand during certain drought years was thereafter simulated with a hydrological model on a spatial resolution of 1 km. A large increase in the demand for irrigation water was simulated, showing that the agricultural sector is expected to become even more vulnerable to drought in the future.

  7. Associations between childhood adversity, adult stressful life events, and past-year drug use disorders in the National Epidemiological Study of Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC).

    PubMed

    Myers, Bronwyn; McLaughlin, Katie A; Wang, Shuai; Blanco, Carlos; Stein, Dan J

    2014-12-01

    Stress sensitization, whereby CA lowers tolerance to later stressors, has been proposed as a potential mechanism explaining the association between exposure to childhood adversities (CA) and drug use disorders in adulthood. However, this mechanism remains untested. This paper begins to address this gap through exploring associations between CA exposure and stressful events in adulthood for predicting drug use disorders. We used data drawn from Wave 2 of the U.S. National Epidemiological Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions (n = 34,653) to explore whether the association between past-year stressful life events and the 12-month prevalence of disordered cannabis, stimulant, and opiate use varied by the number of types of CA that an individual was exposed to. Past-year stressful life events were associated with an increased risk of cannabis, stimulant, and opiate use disorders among men and women. Exposure to CA was associated with increased risk for disordered cannabis use among men and women and opiate use among men only. Finally, we found significant associations between exposure to CA and past-year stressful life events in predicting disordered drug use, but only for women in relation to disordered stimulant and opiate use. Findings are suggestive of possible stress sensitization effects in predicting disordered stimulant and opiate use among women. Implications of these findings for the prevention and treatment of drug use disorders and for future research are discussed.

  8. Associations between childhood adversity, adult stressful life events, and past-year drug use disorders in the National Epidemiological Study of Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC)

    PubMed Central

    Myers, Bronwyn; McLaughlin, Katie A.; Wang, Shuai; Blanco, Carlos; Stein, Dan J.

    2014-01-01

    Stress sensitization, whereby CA lowers tolerance to later stressors, has been proposed as a potential mechanism explaining the association between exposure to childhood adversities (CA) and drug use disorders in adulthood. However this mechanism remains untested. This paper begins to address this gap through exploring associations between CA exposure and stressful events in adulthood for predicting drug use disorders. We used data drawn from Wave 2 of the U.S. National Epidemiological Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions (n=34,653) to explore whether the association between past-year stressful life events and the 12-month prevalence of disordered cannabis, stimulant and opiate use varied by the number of types of CA that an individual was exposed to. Past-year stressful life events were associated with an increased risk of cannabis, stimulant and opiate use disorders among men and women. Exposure to CA was associated with increased risk for disordered cannabis use among men and women and opiate use among men only. Finally, we found significant associations between exposure to CA and past year stressful life events in predicting disordered drug use, but only for women in relation to disordered stimulant and opiate use. Findings are suggestive of possible stress sensitization effects in predicting disordered stimulant and opiate use among women. Implications of these findings for the prevention and treatment of drug use disorders and for future research are discussed. PMID:25134042

  9. Carryover effects and climatic conditions influence the postfledging survival of greater sage-grouse

    PubMed Central

    Blomberg, Erik J; Sedinger, James S; Gibson, Daniel; Coates, Peter S; Casazza, Michael L

    2014-01-01

    Prebreeding survival is an important life history component that affects both parental fitness and population persistence. In birds, prebreeding can be separated into pre- and postfledging periods; carryover effects from the prefledging period may influence postfledging survival. We investigated effects of body condition at fledging, and climatic variation, on postfledging survival of radio-marked greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Great Basin Desert of the western United States. We hypothesized that body condition would influence postfledging survival as a carryover effect from the prefledging period, and we predicted that climatic variation may mediate this carryover effect or, alternatively, would act directly on survival during the postfledging period. Individual body condition had a strong positive effect on postfledging survival of juvenile females, suggesting carryover effects from the prefledging period. Females in the upper 25th percentile of body condition scores had a postfledging survival probability more than twice that (Φ = 0.51 ± 0.06 SE) of females in the bottom 25th percentile (Φ = 0.21 ± 0.05 SE). A similar effect could not be detected for males. We also found evidence for temperature and precipitation effects on monthly survival rates of both sexes. After controlling for site-level variation, postfledging survival was nearly twice as great following the coolest and wettest growing season (Φ = 0.77 ± 0.05 SE) compared with the hottest and driest growing season (Φ = 0.39 ± 0.05 SE). We found no relationships between individual body condition and temperature or precipitation, suggesting that carryover effects operated independently of background climatic variation. The temperature and precipitation effects we observed likely produced a direct effect on mortality risk during the postfledging period. Conservation actions that focus on improving prefledging habitat for sage-grouse may have indirect benefits

  10. Carryover effects and climatic conditions influence the postfledging survival of greater sage-grouse

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Blomberg, Erik J.; Sedinger, James S.; Gibson, Daniel; Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2014-01-01

    Prebreeding survival is an important life history component that affects both parental fitness and population persistence. In birds, prebreeding can be separated into pre- and postfledging periods; carryover effects from the prefledging period may influence postfledging survival. We investigated effects of body condition at fledging, and climatic variation, on postfledging survival of radio-marked greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Great Basin Desert of the western United States. We hypothesized that body condition would influence postfledging survival as a carryover effect from the prefledging period, and we predicted that climatic variation may mediate this carryover effect or, alternatively, would act directly on survival during the postfledging period. Individual body condition had a strong positive effect on postfledging survival of juvenile females, suggesting carryover effects from the prefledging period. Females in the upper 25th percentile of body condition scores had a postfledging survival probability more than twice that (Φ = 0.51 ± 0.06 SE) of females in the bottom 25th percentile (Φ = 0.21 ± 0.05 SE). A similar effect could not be detected for males. We also found evidence for temperature and precipitation effects on monthly survival rates of both sexes. After controlling for site-level variation, postfledging survival was nearly twice as great following the coolest and wettest growing season (Φ = 0.77 ± 0.05 SE) compared with the hottest and driest growing season (Φ = 0.39 ± 0.05 SE). We found no relationships between individual body condition and temperature or precipitation, suggesting that carryover effects operated independently of background climatic variation. The temperature and precipitation effects we observed likely produced a direct effect on mortality risk during the postfledging period. Conservation actions that focus on improving prefledging habitat for sage-grouse may have indirect benefits

  11. Carryover effects and climatic conditions influence the postfledging survival of greater sage-grouse.

    PubMed

    Blomberg, Erik J; Sedinger, James S; Gibson, Daniel; Coates, Peter S; Casazza, Michael L

    2014-12-01

    Prebreeding survival is an important life history component that affects both parental fitness and population persistence. In birds, prebreeding can be separated into pre- and postfledging periods; carryover effects from the prefledging period may influence postfledging survival. We investigated effects of body condition at fledging, and climatic variation, on postfledging survival of radio-marked greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Great Basin Desert of the western United States. We hypothesized that body condition would influence postfledging survival as a carryover effect from the prefledging period, and we predicted that climatic variation may mediate this carryover effect or, alternatively, would act directly on survival during the postfledging period. Individual body condition had a strong positive effect on postfledging survival of juvenile females, suggesting carryover effects from the prefledging period. Females in the upper 25th percentile of body condition scores had a postfledging survival probability more than twice that (Φ = 0.51 ± 0.06 SE) of females in the bottom 25th percentile (Φ = 0.21 ± 0.05 SE). A similar effect could not be detected for males. We also found evidence for temperature and precipitation effects on monthly survival rates of both sexes. After controlling for site-level variation, postfledging survival was nearly twice as great following the coolest and wettest growing season (Φ = 0.77 ± 0.05 SE) compared with the hottest and driest growing season (Φ = 0.39 ± 0.05 SE). We found no relationships between individual body condition and temperature or precipitation, suggesting that carryover effects operated independently of background climatic variation. The temperature and precipitation effects we observed likely produced a direct effect on mortality risk during the postfledging period. Conservation actions that focus on improving prefledging habitat for sage-grouse may have indirect benefits

  12. Accounts from 19th-century Canadian Arctic explorers' logs reflect present climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Overland, James E.; Wood, Kevin

    The widely perceived failure of 19th-century expeditions to find and transit the Northwest Passage in the Canadian Arctic is often attributed to extraordinary cold climatic conditions associated with the “Little Ice Age” evident in proxy records. However, examination of 44 explorers' logs for the western Arctic from 1818 to 1910 reveals that climate indicators such as navigability, the distribution and thickness of annual sea ice, monthly surface air temperature, and the onset of melt and freeze were within the present range of variability.The quest for the Northwest Passage through the Canadian archipelago during the 19th century is frequently seen as a vain and tragic failure. Polar exploration during the Victorian era seems to us today to have been a costly exercise in heroic futility, which in many respects it was. This perspective has been reinforced since the 1970s, when paleoclimate reconstructions based on Arctic ice core stratigraphy appeared to confirm the existence of exceptionally cold conditions consistent with the period glaciologists had termed the “Little Ice Age” (Figure 1a), with temperatures more than one standard deviation colder relative to an early 20th-century mean [Koerner, 1977; Koerner and Fisher, 1990; Overpeck et al., 1998]. In recent years, the view of the Little Ice Age as a synchronous worldwide and prolonged cold epoch that ended with modern warming has been questioned [Bradley and Jones, 1993; Jones and Briffa, 2001 ;Ogilvie, 2001].

  13. Runoff conditions in the Zambezi basin under historic climate and possible future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kling, H.; Preishuber, M.; Fuchs, M.

    2012-04-01

    The Zambezi basin covers 1.4 Mio km2 and is Africa's fourth largest basin. The Zambezi River and its major tributaries are of vital importance to the eight countries sharing the basin. Apart from the ecological value, river runoff is used for hydropower generation, including two of the world's largest hydropower dams (Kariba, Cahora Bassa). Several additional large dams are currently in the planning stages. Future water use may also see a sharp increase of water diversions for irrigation. Atop on these human-made impacts on river runoff, future runoff conditions may also be strongly affected by climate change. To assist in the assessment of future water resources availability a web-based Decision Support System (DSS) is currently developed for the whole Zambezi basin. This open, easy-to-use tool enables to analyze the different impacts of dams (existing and new), irrigation projects and climate change scenarios. The outline of the DSS, data-basis, and simulation under historic conditions and future scenarios will be presented.

  14. The effect of water hyacinths for wastewater treatment under Cuban climatic conditions.

    PubMed

    Rodriguez, C; Jenssen, P D

    2005-01-01

    The purification capacity of systems using floating aquatic plants depend on the climatic conditions under which they are used. This study from Cuban conditions evaluate the effects of the organic loading rate, hydraulic loading rate and water depth on the purification capacity of water hyacinths, as well as the effect of some climatic variables on the kinetics of the treatment processes. The experimental system consisted of two consecutive tanks simulating a system of ponds in series. The water depths used were 0.5 m and 1.12 m. In the shallower system with shorter retention times and greater superficial organic loading higher removal efficiencies are obtained. With the data obtained, empirical relations were sought. From these correlations it is possible to determine the values for some parameters used in the design of aquatic treatment systems with water hyacinths. The results revealed a relationship between the purification capacity of the water hyacinth and its velocity of growth. The specific velocity of growth varied with the months of the year and was associated with the temperature and the solar radiation. A multiple correlation equation describing these relations was obtained.

  15. Dissipation of El Niño-like climate conditions through Andean uplift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, R.; Poulsen, C. J.

    2013-12-01

    Marine proxies of sea-surface temperature (SST) and thermocline depth have been used to infer an El Niño-like climate state during the Pliocene warm period (~4.5 to 3 Ma ago) consisting of a reduced tropical Pacific SST gradient and deeper thermocline depth in the eastern tropical Pacific. El Niño-like conditions dissipated around ~3 Ma, inaugurating the modern tropical climate. More recent studies extend the Pacific record of northeastern equatorial upwelling to the late Miocene (~13 Ma) and suggest long-term strengthening of the upwelling and shoaling of the thermocline since then. Shoaling is thought to have terminated the El Niño-like climate state by cooling eastern equatorial SSTs and activating the Bjerknes feedback. Late Cenozoic cooling is often proposed as the cause of thermocline shoaling. However, corroborating evidence is still needed given that CO2 levels are thought to have been fairly uniform between 12-5 Ma, and that coupled ocean-atmosphere models simulate a shallow eastern equatorial thermocline even under early Pliocene warmth. Here we propose an alternative cause for SST cooling at eastern tropical Pacific--Late Cenozoic uplift of the Andes. Although the timing and stages of the uplift of the Andes are uncertain, geological evidence suggests significant surface uplift on the order of 2 km since the late Miocene. The sensitivity of the equatorial Pacific climate to Andean uplift is explored using the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). In our simulations, the ~2.5 km uplift of central Andes leads to reduction in eastern tropical Pacific SST by 1-2 °C and strengthening of the southeastern Pacific subtropical high and equatorial Easterlies, producing a pattern representative of a La Niña-like state. In addition, the thermocline shoals in the northeastern equatorial Pacific, in agreement with late Miocene marine records. Air-sea interactions are identified as the primary cause of this climate shift because: i) the thermocline adjusts

  16. Sensitivity of soil moisture initialization for decadal predictions under different regional climatic conditions in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khodayar, S.; Sehlinger, A.; Feldmann, H.; Kottmeier, C.

    2015-12-01

    The impact of soil initialization is investigated through perturbation simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. The focus of the investigation is to assess the sensitivity of simulated extreme periods, dry and wet, to soil moisture initialization in different climatic regions over Europe and to establish the necessary spin up time within the framework of decadal predictions for these regions. Sensitivity experiments consisted of a reference simulation from 1968 to 1999 and 5 simulations from 1972 to 1983. The Effective Drought Index (EDI) is used to select and quantify drought status in the reference run to establish the simulation time period for the sensitivity experiments. Different soil initialization procedures are investigated. The sensitivity of the decadal predictions to soil moisture initial conditions is investigated through the analysis of water cycle components' (WCC) variability. In an episodic time scale the local effects of soil moisture on the boundary-layer and the propagated effects on the large-scale dynamics are analysed. The results show: (a) COSMO-CLM reproduces the observed features of the drought index. (b) Soil moisture initialization exerts a relevant impact on WCC, e.g., precipitation distribution and intensity. (c) Regional characteristics strongly impact the response of the WCC. Precipitation and evapotranspiration deviations are larger for humid regions. (d) The initial soil conditions (wet/dry), the regional characteristics (humid/dry) and the annual period (wet/dry) play a key role in the time that soil needs to restore quasi-equilibrium and the impact on the atmospheric conditions. Humid areas, and for all regions, a humid initialization, exhibit shorter spin up times, also soil reacts more sensitive when initialised during dry periods. (e) The initial soil perturbation may markedly modify atmospheric pressure field, wind circulation systems and atmospheric water vapour distribution affecting atmospheric stability

  17. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Turner, J.P.; Hasfurther, V.

    1992-05-04

    The scope of the research program and the continuation is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large scale research sufficient to describe commercial scale embankment behavior. The large scale approach was accomplished by establishing five lysimeters, each 7.3 [times] 3.0 [times] 3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process. Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by Rio Blanco Oil Shale Co., Inc. (RBOSC) through a separate cooperative agreement with the University of Wyoming (UW) to carry out this study. Three of the lysimeters were established at the RBOSC Tract C-a in the Piceance Basin of Colorado. Two lysimeters were established in the Environmental Simulation Laboratory (ESL) at UW. The ESL was specifically designed and constructed so that a large range of climatic conditions could be physically applied to the processed oil shale which was filled in the lysimeter cells.

  18. Global agricultural land resources--a high resolution suitability evaluation and its perspectives until 2100 under climate change conditions.

    PubMed

    Zabel, Florian; Putzenlechner, Birgitta; Mauser, Wolfram

    2014-01-01

    Changing natural conditions determine the land's suitability for agriculture. The growing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land and causes trade-offs between different uses of land and ecosystem services. Accordingly, an inventory is required on the changing potentially suitable areas for agriculture under changing climate conditions. We applied a fuzzy logic approach to compute global agricultural suitability to grow the 16 most important food and energy crops according to the climatic, soil and topographic conditions at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. We present our results for current climate conditions (1981-2010), considering today's irrigated areas and separately investigate the suitability of densely forested as well as protected areas, in order to investigate their potentials for agriculture. The impact of climate change under SRES A1B conditions, as simulated by the global climate model ECHAM5, on agricultural suitability is shown by comparing the time-period 2071-2100 with 1981-2010. Our results show that climate change will expand suitable cropland by additionally 5.6 million km2, particularly in the Northern high latitudes (mainly in Canada, China and Russia). Most sensitive regions with decreasing suitability are found in the Global South, mainly in tropical regions, where also the suitability for multiple cropping decreases.

  19. About climate variabilitiy leading the hydric condition of the soil in the rainfed region of Argentina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pántano, V. C.; Penalba, O. C.

    2013-05-01

    Extreme events of temperature and rainfall have a socio-economic impact in the rainfed agriculture production region in Argentina. The magnitude of the impact can be analyzed through the water balance which integrates the characteristics of the soil and climate conditions. Changes observed in climate variables during the last decades affected the components of the water balance. As a result, a displacement of the agriculture border towards the west was produced, improving the agricultural production of the region. The objective of this work is to analyze how the variability of rainfall and temperature leads the hydric condition of the soil, with special focus on extreme events. The hydric conditions of the soil (HC= Excess- Deficit) were estimated from the monthly water balance (Thornthwaite and Mather method, 1957), using monthly potential evapotranspiration (PET) and monthly accumulated rainfall (R) for 33 stations (period 1970-2006). Information of temperature and rainfall was provided by National Weather Service and the effective capacity of soil water was considered from Forte Lay and Spescha (2001). An agricultural extreme condition occurs when soil moisture and rainfall are inadequate or excessive for the development of the crops. In this study, we define an extreme event when the variable is less (greater) than its 20% and 10% (80% and 90%) percentile. In order to evaluate how sensitive is the HC to water and heat stress in the region, different conditional probabilities were evaluated. There is a weaker response of HC to extreme low PET while extreme low R leads high values of HC. However, this behavior is not always observed, especially in the western region where extreme high and low PET show a stronger influence over the HC. Finally, to analyze the temporal variability of extreme PET and R, leading hydric condition of the soil, the number of stations presenting extreme conditions was computed for each month. As an example, interesting results were

  20. Children's well-being at schools: Impact of climatic conditions and air pollution.

    PubMed

    Salthammer, Tunga; Uhde, Erik; Schripp, Tobias; Schieweck, Alexandra; Morawska, Lidia; Mazaheri, Mandana; Clifford, Sam; He, Congrong; Buonanno, Giorgio; Querol, Xavier; Viana, Mar; Kumar, Prashant

    2016-09-01

    Human civilization is currently facing two particular challenges: population growth with a strong trend towards urbanization and climate change. The latter is now no longer seriously questioned. The primary concern is to limit anthropogenic climate change and to adapt our societies to its effects. Schools are a key part of the structure of our societies. If future generations are to take control of the manifold global problems, we have to offer our children the best possible infrastructure for their education: not only in terms of the didactic concepts, but also with regard to the climatic conditions in the school environment. Between the ages of 6 and 19, children spend up to 8h a day in classrooms. The conditions are, however, often inacceptable and regardless of the geographic situation, all the current studies report similar problems: classrooms being too small for the high number of school children, poor ventilation concepts, considerable outdoor air pollution and strong sources of indoor air pollution. There have been discussions about a beneficial and healthy air quality in classrooms for many years now and in recent years extensive studies have been carried out worldwide. The problems have been clearly outlined on a scientific level and there are prudent and feasible concepts to improve the situation. The growing number of publications also highlights the importance of this subject. High carbon dioxide concentrations in classrooms, which indicate poor ventilation conditions, and the increasing particle matter in urban outdoor air have, in particular, been identified as primary causes of poor indoor air quality in schools. Despite this, the conditions in most schools continue to be in need of improvement. There are many reasons for this. In some cases, the local administrative bodies do not have the budgets required to address such concerns, in other cases regulations and laws stand in contradiction to the demands for better indoor air quality, and sometimes

  1. Assessing the impacts of climate change in Mediterranean catchments under conditions of data scarcity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meyer, Swen; Ludwig, Ralf

    2013-04-01

    According to current climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. While there is scientific consensus that climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean regions are presently occurring and are projected to amplify in the future, very little knowledge is available about the quantification of these changes, which is hampered by a lack of suitable and cost effective hydrological monitoring and modeling systems. The European FP7-project CLIMB is aiming to analyze climate induced changes on the hydrology of the Mediterranean Basins by investigating 7 test sites located in the countries Italy, France, Turkey, Tunisia, Gaza and Egypt. CLIMB employs a combination of novel geophysical field monitoring concepts, remote sensing techniques and integrated hydrologic modeling to improve process descriptions and understanding and to quantify existing uncertainties in climate change impact analysis. The Rio Mannu Basin, located in Sardinia; Italy, is one test site of the CLIMB project. The catchment has a size of 472.5 km2, it ranges from 62 to 946 meters in elevation, at mean annual temperatures of 16°C and precipitation of about 700 mm, the annual runoff volume is about 200 mm. The physically based Water Simulation Model WaSiM Vers. 2 (Schulla & Jasper (1999)) was setup to model current and projected future hydrological conditions. The availability of measured meteorological and hydrological data is poor as common to many Mediterranean catchments. The lack of available measured input data hampers the calibration of the model setup and the validation of model outputs. State of the art remote sensing techniques and field measuring techniques were applied to improve the quality of hydrological input parameters. In a field campaign about 250 soil samples were collected and lab-analyzed. Different geostatistical regionalization methods were tested to improve the

  2. Seasonal Prediction of Hydro-Climatic Extremes in the Greater Horn of Africa Under Evolving Climate Conditions to Support Adaptation Strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tadesse, T.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Habib, S.; Funk, C. C.; Senay, G. B.; Dinku, T.; Policelli, F. S.; Block, P.; Baigorria, G. A.; Beyene, S.; Wardlow, B.; Hayes, M. J.

    2014-12-01

    The development of effective strategies to adapt to changes in the character of droughts and floods in Africa will rely on improved seasonal prediction systems that are robust to an evolving climate baseline and can be integrated into disaster preparedness and response. Many efforts have been made to build models to improve seasonal forecasts in the Greater Horn of Africa region (GHA) using satellite and climate data, but these efforts and models must be improved and translated into future conditions under evolving climate conditions. This has considerable social significance, but is challenged by the nature of climate predictability and the adaptability of coupled natural and human systems facing exposure to climate extremes. To address these issues, work is in progress under a project funded by NASA. The objectives of the project include: 1) Characterize and explain large-scale drivers in the ocean-atmosphere-land system associated with years of extreme flood or drought in the GHA. 2) Evaluate the performance of state-of-the-art seasonal forecast methods for prediction of decision-relevant metrics of hydrologic extremes. 3) Apply seasonal forecast systems to prediction of socially relevant impacts on crops, flood risk, and economic outcomes, and assess the value of these predictions to decision makers. 4) Evaluate the robustness of seasonal prediction systems to evolving climate conditions. The National Drought Mitigation Center (University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA) is leading this project in collaboration with the USGS, Johns Hopkins University, University of Wisconsin-Madison, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, NASA, and GHA local experts. The project is also designed to have active engagement of end users in various sectors, university researchers, and extension agents in GHA through workshops and/or webinars. This project is expected improve and implement new and existing climate- and remote sensing-based agricultural

  3. Aerosol microphysics modules in the framework of the ECHAM5 climate model - intercomparison under stratospheric conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kokkola, H.; Hommel, R.; Kazil, J.; Niemeier, U.; Partanen, A.-I.; Feichter, J.; Timmreck, C.

    2009-07-01

    In this manuscript, we present an intercomparison of three different aerosol microphysics modules that are implemented in the climate model ECHAM5. The comparison was done between the modal aerosol microphysics module M7, which is currently the default aerosol microphysical core in ECHAM5, and two sectional aerosol microphysics modules SALSA, and SAM2. The detailed aerosol microphysical model MAIA was used as a reference to evaluate the results of the aerosol microphysics modules with respect to sulphate aerosol. The ability of the modules to describe the development of the aerosol size distribution was tested in a zero dimensional framework. We evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches under different types of stratospheric conditions. Also, we present an improved method for the time integration in M7 and study how the setup of the modal aerosol modules affects the evolution of the aerosol size distribution. Intercomparison simulations were carried out with varying SO2 concentrations from background conditions to extreme values arising from stratospheric injections by large volcanic eruptions. Under background conditions, all microphysics modules were in good agreement describing the shape of the aerosol size distribution, but the scatter between the model results increased with increasing SO2 concentrations. In particular in the volcanic case the setups of the aerosol modules have to be adapted in order to dependably capture the evolution of the aerosol size distribution, and to perform in global model simulations. In summary, this intercomparison serves as a review of the different aerosol microphysics modules which are currently available for the climate model ECHAM5.

  4. Evaporative sodium salt crust development and its wind tunnel derived transport dynamics under variable climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nield, Joanna M.; McKenna Neuman, Cheryl; O'Brien, Patrick; Bryant, Robert G.; Wiggs, Giles F. S.

    2016-12-01

    Playas (or ephemeral lakes) can be significant sources of dust, but they are typically covered by salt crusts of variable mineralogy and these introduce uncertainty into dust emission predictions. Despite the importance of crust mineralogy to emission potential, little is known about (i) the effect of short-term changes in temperature and relative humidity on the erodibility of these crusts, and (ii) the influence of crust degradation and mineralogy on wind speed threshold for dust emission. Our understanding of systems where emission is not driven by impacts from saltators is particularly poor. This paper describes a wind tunnel study in which dust emission in the absence of saltating particles was measured for a suite of climatic conditions and salt crust types commonly found on Sua Pan, Botswana. The crusts were found to be non-emissive under climate conditions characteristic of dawn and early morning, as compared to hot and dry daytime conditions when the wind speed threshold for dust emission appears to be highly variable, depending upon salt crust physicochemistry. Significantly, sodium sulphate rich crusts were found to be more emissive than crusts formed from sodium chloride, while degraded versions of both crusts had a lower emission threshold than fresh, continuous crusts. The results from this study are in agreement with in-situ field measurements and confirm that dust emission from salt crusted surfaces can occur without saltation, although the vertical fluxes are orders of magnitude lower (∼10 μg/m/s) than for aeolian systems where entrainment is driven by particle impact.

  5. CLIMATE CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE WITHIN-PLANT SPREAD OF BROAD MITES ON AZALEA.

    PubMed

    Mechant, E; Pauwels, E; Gobin, B

    2014-01-01

    The broad mite Polyphagotarsonemus latus (Banks) is considered a major pest in potted azalea, Flanders' flagship ornamental crop of Rhododendron simsii hybrids. In addition to severe economic damage, the broad mite is dreaded for its increasing resistance to acaricides. Due to restrictions in the use of broad spectrum acaricides, Belgian azalea growers are left with only three compounds, belonging to two mode of action groups and restricted in their number of applications, for broad mite control: abamectin, milbemectin and pyrethrin. Although P. latus can be controlled with predatory mites, the high cost of this system makes it (not yet) feasible for integration into standard azalea pest management systems. Hence, a maximum efficacy of treatments with available compounds is essential. Because abamectin, milbemectin and pyrethrin are contact acaricides with limited trans laminar flow, only broad mites located on shoot tips of azalea plants will be controlled after spraying. Consequently, the efficacy of chemical treatments is influenced by the location and spread of P. latus on the plant. Unfortunately, little is known on broad mites' within-plant spread or how it is affected by climatic conditions like temperature and relative humidity. Therefore, experiments were set up to verify whether climate conditions have an effect on the location and migration of broad mites on azalea. Broad mite infected azalea plants were placed in standard growth chambers under different temperature (T:2.5-25°C) and relative humidity (RH:55-80%) treatments. Within-plant spread was determined by counting mites on the shoot tips and inner leaves of azalea plants. Results indicate that temperature and relative humidity have no significant effect on the within-plant spread of P. latus. To formulate recommendations for optimal spray conditions to maximize the efficacy of broad mite control with acaricides, further experiments on the effect of light intensity and rain are scheduled.

  6. Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately under climate change conditions?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chuine, Isabelle; Bonhomme, Marc; Legave, Jean Michel; García de Cortázar-Atauri, Inaki; Charrier, Guillaume; Lacointe, André; Améglio, Thierry

    2014-05-01

    The onset of the growing season of trees has been globally earlier by 2.3 days/decade during the last 50 years because of global warming and this trend is predicted to continue according to climate forecast. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is however not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud dormancy, and on the other hand higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cells growth afterwards. Increasing phenological changes in temperate woody species have strong impacts on forest trees distribution and productivity, as well as crops cultivation areas. Accurate predictions of trees phenology are therefore a prerequisite to understand and foresee the impacts of climate change on forests and agrosystems. Different process-based models have been developed in the last two decades to predict the date of budburst or flowering of woody species. They are two main families: (1) one-phase models which consider only the ecodormancy phase and make the assumption that endodormancy is always broken before adequate climatic conditions for cell growth occur; and (2) two-phase models which consider both the endodormancy and ecodormancy phases and predict a date of dormancy break which varies from year to year. So far, one-phase models have been able to predict accurately tree bud break and flowering under historical climate. However, because they do not consider what happens prior to ecodormancy, and especially the possible negative effect of winter temperature warming on dormancy break, it seems unlikely that they can provide accurate predictions in future climate conditions. It is indeed well known that a lack of low temperature results in abnormal pattern of bud break and development in temperate fruit trees. An accurate modelling of the dormancy break date has thus become a major issue in phenology modelling. Two-phases phenological models predict that global warming should delay

  7. Remote sensing of interannual boreal forest NDVI in relation to climatic conditions in interior Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verbyla, David

    2015-12-01

    Climate has warmed substantially in interior Alaska and several remote sensing studies have documented a decadal-scale decline in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) termed a ‘browning trend’. Reduced summer soil moisture due to changing climatic factors such as earlier springs, less snowpack, and summer drought may reduce boreal productivity and NDVI. However, the relative importance of these climatic factors is poorly understood in boreal interior Alaska. In this study, I used the remotely sensed peak summer NDVI as an index of boreal productivity at 250 m pixel size from 2000 to 2014. Maximum summer NDVI was related to last day of spring snow, early spring snow water equivalent (SWE), and a summer moisture index. There was no significant correlation between early spring SWE and peak summer NDVI. There was a significant correlation between the last day of spring snow and peak summer NDVI, but only for a few higher elevation stations. This was likely due to snowmelt occurring later at higher elevations, thus having a greater effect on summer soil moisture relative to lower elevation sites. For most of boreal interior Alaska, summer drought was likely the dominant control on peak summer NDVI and this effect may persist for several years. Peak summer NDVI declined at all 26 stations after the 2004 drought, and the decline persisted for 2 years at all stations. Due to the shallow rooting zone of most boreal plants, even cool and moist sites at lower elevations are likely vulnerable to drought. For example the peak summer NDVI response following the 2004 drought was similar for adjacent cold and warm watershed basins. Thus, if frequent and severe summer droughts continue, moisture stress effects are likely to be widespread and prolonged throughout most of interior boreal Alaska, including relatively cool, moist sites regardless of spring snowpack conditions or spring phenology.

  8. Potential Alternative Lower Global Warming Refrigerants for Air Conditioning in Hot Climates

    SciTech Connect

    Abdelaziz, Omar; Shrestha, Som S; Shen, Bo

    2017-01-01

    The earth continues to see record increase in temperatures and extreme weather conditions that is largely driven by anthropogenic emissions of warming gases such as carbon dioxide and other more potent greenhouse gases such as refrigerants. The cooperation of 188 countries in the Conference of the Parties in Paris 2015 (COP21) resulted in an agreement aimed to achieve a legally binding and universal agreement on climate, with the aim of keeping global warming below 2 C. A global phasedown of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) can prevent 0.5 C of warming by 2100. However, most of the countries in hot climates are considered as developing countries and as such are still using R-22 (a Hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC)) as the baseline refrigerant and are currently undergoing a phase-out of R-22 which is controlled by current Montreal Protocol to R-410A and other HFC based refrigerants. These HFCs have significantly high Global Warming Potential (GWP) and might not perform as well as R-22 at high ambient temperature conditions. In this paper we present recent results on evaluating the performance of alternative lower GWP refrigerants for R-22 and R-410A for small residential mini-split air conditioners and large commercial packaged units. Results showed that several of the alternatives would provide adequate replacement for R-22 with minor system modification. For the R-410A system, results showed that some of the alternatives were almost drop-in ready with benefit in efficiency and/or capacity. One of the most promising alternatives for R-22 mini-split unit is propane (R-290) as it offers higher efficiency; however it requires compressor and some other minor system modification to maintain capacity and minimize flammability risk. Between the R-410A alternatives, R-32 appears to have a competitive advantage; however at the cost of higher compressor discharge temperature. With respect to the hydrofluoroolefin (HFO) blends, there existed a tradeoff in performance and system design

  9. Performance Analysis of Air-to-Water Heat Pump in Latvian Climate Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kazjonovs, Janis; Sipkevics, Andrejs; Jakovics, Andris; Dancigs, Andris; Bajare, Diana; Dancigs, Leonards

    2014-12-01

    Strategy of the European Union in efficient energy usage demands to have a higher proportion of renewable energy in the energy market. Since heat pumps are considered to be one of the most efficient heating and cooling systems, they will play an important role in the energy consumption reduction in buildings aimed to meet the target of nearly zero energy buildings set out in the EU Directive 2010/31/EU. Unfortunately, the declared heat pump Coefficient of Performance (COP) corresponds to a certain outdoor temperature (+7 °C), therefore different climate conditions, building characteristics and settings result in different COP values during the year. The aim of this research is to investigate the Seasonal Performance factor (SPF) values of air-to-water heat pump which better characterize the effectiveness of heat pump in a longer selected period of time, especially during the winter season, in different types of residential buildings in Latvian climate conditions. Latvia has four pronounced seasons of near-equal length. Winter starts in mid-December and lasts until mid-March. Latvia is characterized by cold, maritime climate (duration of the average heating period being 203 days, the average outdoor air temperature during the heating period being 0.0 °C, the coldest five-day average temperature being -20.7 °C, the average annual air temperature being +6.2 °C, the daily average relative humidity being 79 %). The first part of this research consists of operational air-towater heat pump energy performance monitoring in different residential buildings during the winter season. The second part of the research takes place under natural conditions in an experimental construction stand which is located in an urban environment in Riga, Latvia. The inner area of this test stand, where air-to-water heat pump performance is analyzed, is 9 m2. The ceiling height is 3 m, all external wall constructions (U = 0.16 W/(m2K)) have ventilated facades. To calculate SPF, the

  10. Effects of initial conditions uncertainty on regional climate variability: An analysis using a low-resolution CESM ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sriver, Ryan L.; Forest, Chris E.; Keller, Klaus

    2015-07-01

    The uncertainties surrounding the initial conditions in Earth system models can considerably influence interpretations about climate trends and variability. Here we present results from a new climate change ensemble experiment using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to analyze the effect of internal variability on regional climate variables that are relevant for decision making. Each simulation is initialized from a unique and dynamically consistent model state sampled from a ~10,000 year fully coupled equilibrium simulation, which captures the internal unforced variability of the coupled Earth system. We find that internal variability has a sizeable contribution to the modeled ranges of temperature and precipitation. The effects increase for more localized regions. The ensemble exhibits skill in simulating key regional climate processes relevant to decision makers, such as seasonal temperature variability and extremes. The presented ensemble framework and results can provide useful resources for uncertainty quantification, integrated assessment, and climate risk management.

  11. Use of sensor imagery data for surface boundary conditions in regional climate modeling.

    PubMed

    Choi, Hyun Il

    2011-01-01

    Mesoscale climate and hydrology modeling studies have increased in sophistication and are being run at increasingly higher resolutions. Data resolution sufficiently finer than that of the computational model is required not only to support sophisticated linkages and process interactions at small scales but to assess their cumulative impact at larger scales. The global distributions at fine spatial and temporal scales can be described by means of various sensor imagery data collected through remote sensing techniques, sensor image and photo programs, scanning and digitizing skills for existing maps, etc. The availability of global sensor imagery maps facilitates assimilation in land surface models to account for terrestrial dynamics. This study focuses on the use of global imagery data for development and construction of surface boundary conditions (SBCs) specifically designed for mesoscale regional climate model (RCM) applications. The several SBCs are currently presented in a RCM domain for the continent of Asia at 30-km spacing by using sensor imagery data. Geographic Information System (GIS) software application tools are mainly used to convert data information from various raw data onto RCM-specific grids. The raw data sources and processing procedures are elaborated in detail, by which the SBCs can be readily constructed for any specific RCM domain anywhere in the world.

  12. Monitoring Thermal Performance of Hollow Bricks with Different Cavity Fillers in Difference Climate Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavlík, Zbyšek; Jerman, Miloš; Fořt, Jan; Černý, Robert

    2015-03-01

    Hollow brick blocks have found widespread use in the building industry during the last decades. The increasing requirements to the thermal insulation properties of building envelopes given by the national standards in Europe led the brick producers to reduce the production of common solid bricks. Brick blocks with more or less complex systems of internal cavities replaced the traditional bricks and became dominant on the building ceramics market. However, contrary to the solid bricks where the thermal conductivity can easily be measured by standard methods, the complex geometry of hollow brick blocks makes the application of common techniques impossible. In this paper, a steady-state technique utilizing a system of two climatic chambers separated by a connecting tunnel for sample positioning is used for the determination of the thermal conductivity, thermal resistance, and thermal transmittance ( U value) of hollow bricks with the cavities filled by air, two different types of mineral wool, polystyrene balls, and foam polyurethane. The particular brick block is provided with the necessary temperature- and heat-flux sensors and thermally insulated in the tunnel. In the climatic chambers, different temperatures are set. After steady-state conditions are established in the measuring system, the effective thermal properties of the brick block are calculated using the measured data. Experimental results show that the best results are achieved with hydrophilic mineral wool as a cavity filler; the worst performance exhibits the brick block with air-filled cavities.

  13. Paradoxical cold conditions during the medieval climate anomaly in the Western Arctic

    PubMed Central

    Jomelli, Vincent; Lane, Timothy; Favier, Vincent; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Swingedouw, Didier; Rinterknecht, Vincent; Schimmelpfennig, Irene; Brunstein, Daniel; Verfaillie, Deborah; Adamson, Kathryn; Leanni, Laëtitia; Mokadem, Fatima; Aumaître, Georges; Bourlès, Didier L.; Keddadouche, Karim

    2016-01-01

    In the Northern Hemisphere, most mountain glaciers experienced their largest extent in the last millennium during the Little Ice Age (1450 to 1850 CE, LIA), a period marked by colder hemispheric temperatures than the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950 to 1250 CE, MCA), a period which coincided with glacier retreat. Here, we present a new moraine chronology based on 36Cl surface exposure dating from Lyngmarksbræen glacier, West Greenland. Consistent with other glaciers in the western Arctic, Lyngmarksbræen glacier experienced several advances during the last millennium, the first one at the end of the MCA, in ~1200 CE, was of similar amplitude to two other advances during the LIA. In the absence of any significant changes in accumulation records from South Greenland ice cores, we attribute this expansion to multi-decadal summer cooling likely driven by volcanic and/or solar forcing, and associated regional sea-ice feedbacks. Such regional multi-decadal cold conditions at the end of the MCA are neither resolved in temperature reconstructions from other parts of the Northern Hemisphere, nor captured in last millennium climate simulations. PMID:27609585

  14. Predictive analysis of landslide susceptibility in the Kao-Ping watershed, Taiwan under climate change conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shou, K. J.; Wu, C. C.; Lin, J. F.

    2015-01-01

    Among the most critical issues, climatic abnormalities caused by global warming also affect Taiwan significantly for the past decade. The increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events, in which concentrated and intensive rainfalls generally cause geohazards including landslides and debris flows. The extraordinary Typhoon Morakot hit Southern Taiwan on 8 August 2009 and induced serious flooding and landslides. In this study, the Kao-Ping River watershed was adopted as the study area, and the typical events 2007 Krosa Typhoon and 2009 Morakot Typhoon were adopted to train the susceptibility model. This study employs rainfall frequency analysis together with the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaling estimation to understand the temporal rainfall trends, distributions, and intensities in the Kao-Ping River watershed. The rainfall estimates were introduced in the landslide susceptibility model to produce the predictive landslide susceptibility for various rainfall scenarios, including abnormal climate conditions. These results can be used for hazard remediation, mitigation, and prevention plans for the Kao-Ping River watershed.

  15. Post-impact climate conditions on early Mars: preliminary results from GCM simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steakley, Kathryn; Murphy, Jim; Kahre, Melinda A.; Haberle, Robert

    2016-10-01

    Observations imply that liquid water was stable on Mars' surface during the late Noachian/early Hesperian era, with valley networks forming roughly 3.5-3.75 billion years ago, possibly from precipitation and runoff (Fassett & Head 2008, Icarus 195, 61; Hynek et al., 2010, JGR Planets, 115, E09008). Climate models, however, struggle to reproduce such warm conditions (Forget et al., 2013, Icarus 21, 81). Volcanism and impacts have been suggested as mechanisms of either inducing a warm and wet environment or causing local melting in a cold and wet environment. Comets and asteroids are capable of injecting into the atmosphere both kinetic energy from the impact and water from the object itself and from vaporized surface and subsurface ice. Segura et al. (2008, JGR Planets 113, E11007) find using a 1-D atmospheric model that significant rainfall and periods of above-freezing temperatures lasting months to years can follow impacts of objects between 30 and 100 km in diameter. We revisit this work utilizing a 3-D global climate model (GCM) to consider the effects of dynamics, topography, global surface ice variations, etc. We present preliminary results from the NASA ARC Mars GCM investigating global temperature and precipitation behavior in a post-impact, early Mars environment.

  16. Paradoxical cold conditions during the medieval climate anomaly in the Western Arctic.

    PubMed

    Jomelli, Vincent; Lane, Timothy; Favier, Vincent; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Swingedouw, Didier; Rinterknecht, Vincent; Schimmelpfennig, Irene; Brunstein, Daniel; Verfaillie, Deborah; Adamson, Kathryn; Leanni, Laëtitia; Mokadem, Fatima

    2016-09-09

    In the Northern Hemisphere, most mountain glaciers experienced their largest extent in the last millennium during the Little Ice Age (1450 to 1850 CE, LIA), a period marked by colder hemispheric temperatures than the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950 to 1250 CE, MCA), a period which coincided with glacier retreat. Here, we present a new moraine chronology based on (36)Cl surface exposure dating from Lyngmarksbræen glacier, West Greenland. Consistent with other glaciers in the western Arctic, Lyngmarksbræen glacier experienced several advances during the last millennium, the first one at the end of the MCA, in ~1200 CE, was of similar amplitude to two other advances during the LIA. In the absence of any significant changes in accumulation records from South Greenland ice cores, we attribute this expansion to multi-decadal summer cooling likely driven by volcanic and/or solar forcing, and associated regional sea-ice feedbacks. Such regional multi-decadal cold conditions at the end of the MCA are neither resolved in temperature reconstructions from other parts of the Northern Hemisphere, nor captured in last millennium climate simulations.

  17. Paradoxical cold conditions during the medieval climate anomaly in the Western Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2016-09-01

    In the Northern Hemisphere, most mountain glaciers experienced their largest extent in the last millennium during the Little Ice Age (1450 to 1850 CE, LIA), a period marked by colder hemispheric temperatures than the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950 to 1250 CE, MCA), a period which coincided with glacier retreat. Here, we present a new moraine chronology based on 36Cl surface exposure dating from Lyngmarksbræen glacier, West Greenland. Consistent with other glaciers in the western Arctic, Lyngmarksbræen glacier experienced several advances during the last millennium, the first one at the end of the MCA, in ~1200 CE, was of similar amplitude to two other advances during the LIA. In the absence of any significant changes in accumulation records from South Greenland ice cores, we attribute this expansion to multi-decadal summer cooling likely driven by volcanic and/or solar forcing, and associated regional sea-ice feedbacks. Such regional multi-decadal cold conditions at the end of the MCA are neither resolved in temperature reconstructions from other parts of the Northern Hemisphere, nor captured in last millennium climate simulations.

  18. Assessing the Land-Ocean Interaction under Extreme Climate Change Condition - a Modeling Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Z.; Wang, T.; Leung, R.; Balaguru, K.; Hibbard, K. A.

    2011-12-01

    Many modeling applications, at global and regional scales, have demonstrated that numerical models are useful tools to quantify the uncertainty and the interactions between natural physical and biogeochemical processes and human activities in coastal regions. A regional integrated assessment modeling framework to investigate the interactions of agriculture and land use, coastal ecological issues, energy supply and effects of climate changes is under development by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), with specific application to the Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf is vulnerable to the direct impacts of climate changes, such as sea level rise, hurricane-induced storm surge and extreme floods due to high precipitation and river run-off. This presentation will focus on the coastal modeling aspect of this integrated modeling approach. An unstructured-grid finite volume coastal ocean model, which has the capability of simulating coastal circulation, wave and storm surges, sediment transport and biogeochemical processes, is applied to simulate hurricane storm surges and extreme flood events in the coastal region of Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, storm surge along the US Southeast coasts and freshwater plume in the Mississippi Delta were simulated and compared to observations. Numerical sensitivity studies with boundary conditions and forcing indicated the urgent need of a real observation network as well as the importance of accurate model predictions at regional scales to drive the model at smaller scales. The implication of natural pressures, such as storm surge and flooding to biogeochemical processes and marine ecosystem will be discussed.

  19. Kinetically limited weathering at low denudation rates in semiarid climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schoonejans, Jérôme; Vanacker, Veerle; Opfergelt, Sophie; Ameijeiras-Mariño, Yolanda; Christl, Marcus

    2016-02-01

    Biogeochemical cycling within the Critical Zone depends on the interactions between minerals and fluids controlling chemical weathering and physical erosion rates. In this study, we explore the role of water availability in controlling soil chemical weathering in semiarid climatic conditions. Weathering rates and intensities were evaluated for nine soil profiles located on convex ridge crests of three mountain ranges in the Spanish Betic Cordillera. We combine a geochemical mass balance with 10Be cosmogenic nuclides to constrain chemical weathering intensities and long-term denudation rates. As such, this study presents new data on chemical weathering and 10Be-derived denudation for understudied semiarid climate systems. In the Betic Cordillera, chemical weathering intensities are relatively low (~5 to 30% of the total denudation of the soil) and negatively correlated with the magnitude of the water deficit in soils. Chemical mass losses are inversely related to denudation rates (14-109 mm/kyr) and positively to soil thickness (14-58 cm); these results are consistent with kinetic limitation of chemical weathering rates. A worldwide compilation of chemical weathering data suggests that soil water balance may regulate the coupling between chemical weathering and physical erosion by modulating soil solute fluxes. Therefore, future landscape evolution models that seek to link chemical weathering and physical erosion should include soil water flux as an essential driver of weathering.

  20. Use of Sensor Imagery Data for Surface Boundary Conditions in Regional Climate Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Hyun Il

    2011-01-01

    Mesoscale climate and hydrology modeling studies have increased in sophistication and are being run at increasingly higher resolutions. Data resolution sufficiently finer than that of the computational model is required not only to support sophisticated linkages and process interactions at small scales but to assess their cumulative impact at larger scales. The global distributions at fine spatial and temporal scales can be described by means of various senor imagery data collected through remote sensing techniques, sensor image and photo programs, scanning and digitizing skills for existing maps, etc. The availability of global sensor imagery maps facilitates assimilation in land surface models to account for terrestrial dynamics. This study focuses on the use of global imagery data for development and construction of surface boundary conditions (SBCs) specifically designed for mesoscale regional climate model (RCM) applications. The several SBCs are currently presented in a RCM domain for the continent of Asia at 30-km spacing by using sensor imagery data. Geographic Information System (GIS) software application tools are mainly used to convert data information from various raw data onto RCM-specific grids. The raw data sources and processing procedures are elaborated in detail, by which the SBCs can be readily constructed for any specific RCM domain anywhere in the world. PMID:22163982

  1. Air Flow Path Dynamics In The Vadose Zone Under Various Land Surface Climate Boundary Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Illangasekare, T. H.; Sakaki, T.; Schulte, P. E.; Cihan, A.; Christ, J.

    2010-12-01

    Vapor intrusion (VI) refers to the transport of volatile chemical vapors from subsurface sources to surface and subsurface structures through the vadose zone. Because of the difference in pressure between the inside of the building and the subsurface soil pores, vapor can enter the building through cracks in the foundation, slab and walls and utility openings. The processes that govern the vapor transport in the heterogeneous subsurface “outside the home” are complex, and the sampling to assess potential pathways is subjected to spatial and temporal variability. Spatial variability is a result of a number of factors that include changing soil and soil moisture conditions. Temporal variability is a result of transient heat, wind, ambient pressure and a water flux boundary conditions at the land-atmospheric interface. Fluctuating water table conditions controlled by recharge, pumping, and stream-aquifer interactions will also contribute to the transient vapor flux generation at the sources. When the soil moisture changes as a result of precipitation events and other soil surface boundary conditions, the soil moisture content changes and hence the air permeability. Therefore, the primary pathways for the vapor are preferential channels that change with the transient soil moisture distribution. Both field and laboratory studies have shown that heterogeneity has a significant influence on soil moisture conditions in unsaturated soils. Uncertainties in vapor transport predictions have been attributed to heterogeneity and spatial variability in hydraulic properties. In this study, our goal was to determine the role of soil moisture variability on vapor transport and intrusion as affected by the climate driven boundary conditions on the land surface. A series of experiments were performed to generate a comprehensive data set to understand and evaluate how the spatial and temporal variability of soil moisture affected by the mass and heat flux boundary conditions on the

  2. Climatic and environmental conditions favoring the crossing of the Carpathians by early Neolithic populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perşoiu, Ioana; Perşoiu, Aurel

    2015-04-01

    The study of the origin and spread of Neolithic has been the subject of heated debate since the early studies of Childe (1942). To what extent the dispersal process was influenced by environmental factors is still debated, one of the issues being whether climatic conditions influencing agricultural practices, could have influenced the dispersal route, "blocking" some of the Neolithic societies in front of ecological barriers. Data from Neolithic sites in SE Europe shows that a continuous stream of people and cultures flowed through the Danube's Iron Gates towards Central Europe, while in the eastern part of Europe this process was delayed, people and cultures "moving" around the Carpathians and crossing them with a delay of ca. 1000 years. One of the possible avenues for this crossing is the floodplain of Someşu Mic River (Transylvanian depression), home to the oldest (~8500 cal. BP) Neolithic settlement in Romania. In this paper, we review the climatic and environmental changes that affected the region at the time of Neolithic dispersal. Pollen and stable isotopes in cave ice indicate an early Holocene rapid warming during summer months, peaking around 7 ka cal. BP; and a delayed warming for autumn and winter months, peaking at 5 ka cal. BP, both followed by a continuous cooling trend towards the present. Someşu Mic River developed and maintained a narrow sinuous channel during the Holocene, with local development of meanders and anabranches, in response to both climatic and geologic controlling factors. Archaeological finds in the floodplain and the lower terraces suggest that human societies in the region responded in sensitive manner to these climatic and environmental changes. During warm and dry periods, with low fluvial activity, the number of settlements increased in the floodplain's perimeter, while during the short cold and humid periods, the number of settlements rapidly increased on the lower terraces and on the valley slopes, disappearing from the

  3. Wheat breadmaking properties in dependance on wheat enzymes status and climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Tomić, Jelena; Torbica, Aleksandra; Popović, Ljiljana; Hristov, Nikola; Nikolovski, Branislava

    2016-05-15

    The objective of this study was to evaluate albumins profile, proteolytic and amylolytic activity level and baking performance of wheat varieties grown in two production years with different climate conditions (2011 and 2012) in four locations. The results of ANOVA showed that variety, location, production year, and their interactions all had significant effects on all tested wheat quality parameters. The enzymatic activity and specific bread volume were mainly influenced by the variety. The samples from 2012 production year, had the lower values of albumin content, proteolytic and amylolytic activity, and bread specific volume. The correlation analysis, performed for 2011 production year, showed that albumin fraction (15-30 kDa) and proteolytic activity were negatively correlated with bread specific volume indicating the role of this fraction on lowering the crucial bread quality parameter. In 2012 production year, albumin fractions (5-15 kDa; 50-65 kDa) showed the most correlations, especially with parameters of bread quality.

  4. Hydraulics of sub-superficial flow constructed wetlands in semi arid climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Ranieri, E

    2003-01-01

    This paper reports the evaluation of the hydraulics of two constructed wetland (cw(s)) plants located in Apulia (the South Eastern Italy region characterized by semi arid climate conditions). These fields were planted with Phragmites australis hydrophytes and are supplied with local secondary wastewater municipal treatment plant effluent. Each plant--Kickuth Root-Zone method based--covers an area of approx. 2,000 m2. The evapotranspiration phenomenon has been evaluated within perforated tubes fixed to the field bottom and very high values--up to 40 mm/d--were found. Hydraulic conductivity has been evaluated by in situ measurements at different field points. Hydraulic gradients and the piezometric curve within the field are also reported.

  5. Effects of lateral boundary condition resolution and update frequency on regional climate model predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pankatz, Klaus; Kerkweg, Astrid

    2015-04-01

    The work presented is part of the joint project "DecReg" ("Regional decadal predictability") which is in turn part of the project "MiKlip" ("Decadal predictions"), an effort funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research to improve decadal predictions on a global and regional scale. In MiKlip, one big question is if regional climate modeling shows "added value", i.e. to evaluate, if regional climate models (RCM) produce better results than the driving models. However, the scope of this study is to look more closely at the setup specific details of regional climate modeling. As regional models only simulate a small domain, they have to inherit information about the state of the atmosphere at their lateral boundaries from external data sets. There are many unresolved questions concerning the setup of lateral boundary conditions (LBC). External data sets come from global models or from global reanalysis data-sets. A temporal resolution of six hours is common for this kind of data. This is mainly due to the fact, that storage space is a limiting factor, especially for climate simulations. However, theoretically, the coupling frequency could be as high as the time step of the driving model. Meanwhile, it is unclear if a more frequent update of the LBCs has a significant effect on the climate in the domain of the RCM. The first study examines how the RCM reacts to a higher update frequency. The study is based on a 30 year time slice experiment for three update frequencies of the LBC, namely six hours, one hour and six minutes. The evaluation of means, standard deviations and statistics of the climate in the regional domain shows only small deviations, some statistically significant though, of 2m temperature, sea level pressure and precipitation. The second part of the first study assesses parameters linked to cyclone activity, which is affected by the LBC update frequency. Differences in track density and strength are found when comparing the simulations

  6. Effects of flow scarcity on leaf-litter processing under oceanic climate conditions in calcareous streams.

    PubMed

    Martínez, Aingeru; Pérez, Javier; Molinero, Jon; Sagarduy, Mikel; Pozo, Jesús

    2015-01-15

    Although temporary streams represent a high proportion of the total number and length of running waters, historically the study of intermittent streams has received less attention than that of perennial ones. The goal of the present study was to assess the effects of flow cessation on litter decomposition in calcareous streams under oceanic climate conditions. For this, leaf litter of alder was incubated in four streams (S1, S2, S3 and S4) with different flow regimes (S3 and S4 with zero-flow periods) from northern Spain. To distinguish the relative importance and contribution of decomposers and detritivores, fine- and coarse-mesh litter bags were used. We determined processing rates, leaf-C, -N and -P concentrations, invertebrate colonization in coarse bags and benthic invertebrates. Decomposition rates in fine bags were similar among streams. In coarse bags, only one of the intermittent streams, S4, showed a lower rate than that in the other ones as a consequence of lower invertebrate colonization. The material incubated in fine bags presented higher leaf-N and -P concentrations than those in the coarse ones, except in S4, pointing out that the decomposition in this stream was driven mainly by microorganisms. Benthic macroinvertebrate and shredder density and biomass were lower in intermittent streams than those in perennial ones. However, the bags in S3 presented a greater amount of total macroinvertebrates and shredders comparing with the benthos. The most suitable explanation is that the fauna find a food substrate in bags less affected by calcite precipitation, which is common in the streambed at this site. Decomposition rate in coarse bags was positively related to associated shredder biomass. Thus, droughts in streams under oceanic climate conditions affect mainly the macroinvertebrate detritivore activity, although macroinvertebrates may show distinct behavior imposed by the physicochemical properties of water, mainly travertine precipitation, which can

  7. Can environmental conditions affect smallholders' climate change perception? Evidence from an aridity gradient in the Gobi desert.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rueff, Henri

    2016-04-01

    There is a growing interest in smallholders' climate change perception (CCP). Understanding what people perceive in relation to the climate they endure supports national climate change adaptation policy especially relevant to uncertain and resource-scarce environments. Most research so far focused on the accuracy of CCP compared to observed climatic data. However, the potential effect of factors influencing peoples' perceptions remains largely unstudied. This research tests two hypotheses in a desert environment; first, that CCP varies along an aridity gradient, and, second, that respondents are more consistent (answers less far apart) in their CCP when facing more climate shocks, which supports the first hypothesis. A semi-structured survey was conducted among nomadic (Mongolia) (n=180) and semi-nomadic (Inner Mongolia-China) (n=180) herders, to analyse perception along an aridity gradient (proxied by Normalised Difference Vegetation Index) covering an array of climate change issues in the Gobi. Results suggests that environmental conditions have a significant effect on CCP but only in terms of experienced climate shocks. The CCP for other climatic variables (rain, season length) is more diffused and can poorly be predicted by the surrounding environment smallholders live in. Institutional contrasts between China and Mongolia explain marginally differences of perception. Further research is needed to validate these results among smallholders on other environmental gradient types, for examples along altitudinal biome stratification in mountain environments.

  8. Present and future assessment of growing degree days over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pattanaik, D. R.; Mohapatra, M.; Srivastava, A. K.; Kumar, Arun

    2016-08-01

    The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). The current study focuses on three selected study areas in Greece that are characterised by different climatic conditions due to their location and aims to assess the future variation and spatial distribution of Growing Degree Days (GDD) and how these can affect the main cultivations in the study areas. Future temperature data were obtained and analysed by the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis was performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 with the A1B and B1 scenarios. Spatial distribution was performed using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling technique through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for all the future periods and scenarios, the GDD are expected to increase. Furthermore, the increase in the Sperchios River basin will be the highest, followed by the Ardas and the Geropotamos River basins. Moreover, the cultivation period will be shifted from April-October to April-September which will have social, economical and environmental benefits. Additionally, the spatial distribution indicated that in the upcoming years the existing cultivations can find favourable conditions and can be expanded in mountainous areas as well. On the other hand, due to the rough topography that exists in the study areas, the wide expansion of the existing cultivations into higher altitudes is unaffordable. Nevertheless, new more profitable cultivations can be introduced which can find propitious conditions in terms of GDD.

  9. Bulk volumetric liquid water content in a seasonal snowpack: modeling its dynamics in different climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avanzi, Francesco; Yamaguchi, Satoru; Hirashima, Hiroyuki; De Michele, Carlo

    2015-12-01

    We focus on the dynamics of volumetric liquid water content in seasonal snow covers. This is a key variable describing the fate of snowpacks during the melting season. However, its measurement and/or prediction by means of models at high spatial and temporal resolutions is still difficult due to both practical and theoretical reasons. To overcome these limitations in operational applications, we test the capability of a one-dimensional model to predict the dynamics of bulk volumetric liquid water content during a snow season. Multi-year data collected in three experimental sites in Japan are used as an evaluation. These sites are subjected to different climatic conditions. The model requires the calibration of one or two parameters, according to the degree of detail used. Either a simple temperature-index or a coupled melt-freeze temperature-index approach are considered to predict melting and/or melt-freeze dynamics of liquid water. Results show that, if melt-freeze dynamics are modeled, median absolute differences between data and predictions are consistently lower than 1 vol% at the sites where data of liquid water content are available. In addition, we find also that the model predicts correctly a dry condition in 80% of the observed cases at a site where calibration data are scarce. At the same site, observed isothermal conditions of the snow cover at 0 °C correspond to predictions of bulk volumetric liquid water content that are greater than 0.

  10. Monitoring particulate matter levels and climate conditions in a Greek sheep and goat livestock building.

    PubMed

    Papanastasiou, Dimitris K; Fidaros, Dimitris; Bartzanas, Thomas; Kittas, Constantinos

    2011-12-01

    Atmospheric pollutants from livestock operations influence air quality inside livestock buildings and the air exhausted from them. The climate that prevails inside the building affects human and animal health and welfare, as well as productivity, while emissions from the building contribute to environmental pollution. The aim of this study was to examine the variation of two climatic parameters (namely temperature and relative humidity) and the levels of particulate matter of different sizes (PM10-PM2.5-PM1), as well as the relationships between them, inside a typical Greek naturally ventilated livestock building that hosts mainly sheep. The concentration of particles was recorded during a 45-day period (27/11-10/1), while temperature and relative humidity were observed during an almost 1-year period. The analysis revealed that the variation of outdoor weather conditions significantly influenced the indoor environment, as temperature and relative humidity inside the building varied in accordance to the outside climate conditions. Temperature remained higher indoors than outdoors during the winter and extremely low values were not recorded inside the building. However, the tolerable relative humidity levels recommended by the International Commission of Agricultural Engineering (CIGR) were fulfilled only in 47% of the hours during the almost 1-year period that was examined. This fact indicates that although temperature was satisfactorily controlled, the control of relative humidity was deficient. The concentration of particulate matter was increased during the cold winter days due to poor ventilation. The maximum daily average value of PM10, PM2.5 and PM1 concentration equaled to 363, 61 and 30 μg/m(3) respectively. The concentration of the coarse particles was strongly influenced by the farming activities that were daily taking place in the building, the dust resuspension being considered as the dominant source. A significant part of the fine particles were

  11. Temperature and dust profiles in Martian dust storm conditions retrieved from Mars Climate Sounder measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kleinboehl, A.; Kass, D. M.; Schofield, J. T.; McCleese, D. J.

    2013-12-01

    Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) is a mid- and far-infrared thermal emission radiometer on board the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. It measures radiances in limb and nadir/on-planet geometry from which vertical profiles of atmospheric temperature, water vapor, dust and condensates can be retrieved in an altitude range from 0 to 80 km and with a vertical resolution of ~5 km. Due to the limb geometry used as the MCS primary observation mode, retrievals in conditions with high aerosol loading are challenging. We have developed several modifications to the MCS retrieval algorithm that will facilitate profile retrievals in high-dust conditions. Key modifications include a retrieval option that uses a surface pressure climatology if a pressure retrieval is not possible in high dust conditions, an extension of aerosol retrievals to higher altitudes, and a correction to the surface temperature climatology. In conditions of a global dust storm, surface temperatures tend to be lower compared to standard conditions. Taking this into account using an adaptive value based on atmospheric opacity leads to improved fits to the radiances measured by MCS and improves the retrieval success rate. We present first results of these improved retrievals during the global dust storm in 2007. Based on the limb opacities observed during the storm, retrievals are typically possible above ~30 km altitude. Temperatures around 240 K are observed in the middle atmosphere at mid- and high southern latitudes after the onset of the storm. Dust appears to be nearly homogeneously mixed at lower altitudes. Significant dust opacities are detected at least up to 70 km altitude. During much of the storm, in particular at higher altitudes, the retrieved dust profiles closely resemble a Conrath-profile.

  12. Projecting impacts of climate change on hydrological conditions and biotic responses in a chalk valley riparian wetland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    House, A. R.; Thompson, J. R.; Acreman, M. C.

    2016-03-01

    Projected changes in climate are likely to substantially impact wetland hydrological conditions that will in turn have implications for wetland ecology. Assessing ecohydrological impacts of climate change requires models that can accurately simulate water levels at the fine-scale resolution to which species and communities respond. Hydrological conditions within the Lambourn Observatory at Boxford, Berkshire, UK were simulated using the physically based, distributed model MIKE SHE, calibrated to contemporary surface and groundwater levels. The site is a 10 ha lowland riparian wetland where complex geological conditions and channel management exert strong influences on the hydrological regime. Projected changes in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, channel discharge and groundwater level were derived from the UK Climate Projections 2009 ensemble of climate models for the 2080s under different scenarios. Hydrological impacts of climate change differ through the wetland over short distances depending on the degree of groundwater/surface-water interaction. Discrete areas of groundwater upwelling are associated with an exaggerated response of water levels to climate change compared to non-upwelling areas. These are coincident with regions where a weathered chalk layer, which otherwise separates two main aquifers, is absent. Simulated water levels were linked to requirements of the MG8 plant community and Desmoulin's whorl snail (Vertigo moulinsiana) for which the site is designated. Impacts on each are shown to differ spatially and in line with hydrological impacts. Differences in water level requirements for this vegetation community and single species highlight the need for separate management strategies in distinct areas of the wetland.

  13. Impact of Climate Conditions on Occupational Health and Related Economic Losses: A New Feature of Global and Urban Health in the Context of Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Kjellstrom, Tord

    2016-03-01

    One feature of climate change is the increasing heat exposure in many workplaces where efficient cooling systems cannot be applied. Excessive heat exposure is a particular problem for working people because of the internal heat production when muscle work is carried out. The physiological basis for severe heat stroke, other clinical effects, and heat exhaustion is well known. One feature of this health effect of excessive workplace heat exposure is reduced work capacity, and new research has started to quantify this effect in the context of climate change. Current climate conditions in tropical and subtropical parts of the world are already so hot during the hot seasons that occupational health effects occur and work capacity for many working people is affected. The Hothaps-Soft database and software andClimateCHIP.orgwebsite make it possible to rapidly produce estimates of local heat conditions and trends. The results can be mapped to depict the spatial distribution of workplace heat stress. In South-East Asia as much as 15% to 20% of annual work hours may already be lost in heat-exposed jobs, and this may double by 2050 as global climate change progresses. By combining heat exposure data and estimates of the economic consequences, the vulnerability of many low- and middle-income countries is evident. The annual cost of reduced labor productivity at country level already in 2030 can be several percent of GDP, which means billions of US dollars even for medium-size countries. The results provide new arguments for effective climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and preventive actions in all countries.

  14. Climatic thresholds for pedogenic iron oxides under aerobic conditions: Processes and their significance in paleoclimate reconstruction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Long, Xiaoyong; Ji, Junfeng; Barrón, Vidal; Torrent, José

    2016-10-01

    Iron oxides are widely distributed across the surface of the Earth as a result of the aerobic weathering of primary Fe-bearing minerals. Pedogenic iron oxides which consist mainly of hematite (Hm), goethite (Gt), maghemite (Mgh), are often concentrated synchronously in aerobic soils under low to moderate rainfall regimes. Magnetic susceptibility (χ) and redness, which respectively reflect the content of Mgh and Hm in soils, are considered reasonable pedogenic and climatic indicators in soil taxonomy and paleorainfall reconstruction. However, under high rainfall regimes, the grain growth of Mgh and transformation to Hm, combined with the prior formation of Gt under conditions of high relative humidity (RH), can result in magnetic reduction and dramatic yellowing of soils and sediments, which explains the existence of rainfall thresholds for Mgh and Hm at a large scale even before the pedogenic environment turns anaerobic. In order to capture the rainfall thresholds for Mgh and Hm occurring under aerobic conditions, we explored a tropical transect across a granitic region where the soil color turned from red to yellow under a wide rainfall range of 900-2200 mm/yr and a corresponding mean annual RH range of 77%-85%. We observed a lower rainfall threshold of ∼1500 mm/yr and a corresponding RH ∼80% for Mgh and Hm along this transect, as well as a higher rainfall threshold of ∼1700 mm/yr and a corresponding RH of ∼81% for Gt and total pedogenic iron oxides (citrate/bicarbonate/dithionite-extractable Fe, Fed). Cross-referencing with comparable studies in temperate and subtropical regions, we noted that the rainfall or RH thresholds for Fed and Hm or Mgh likewise increase with temperature. Moreover, the different thresholds for total and individual iron oxide phase indicates that a negative correlation between chemical weathering intensity and redness or χ in sediment sequences can occur under the prevalent climate regime just between their thresholds. Finally

  15. Topsoil moisture mapping using geostatistical techniques under different Mediterranean climatic conditions.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Murillo, J F; Hueso-González, P; Ruiz-Sinoga, J D

    2017-04-06

    Soil mapping has been considered as an important factor in the widening of Soil Science and giving response to many different environmental questions. Geostatistical techniques, through kriging and co-kriging techniques, have made possible to improve the understanding of eco-geomorphologic variables, e.g., soil moisture. This study is focused on mapping of topsoil moisture using geostatistical techniques under different Mediterranean climatic conditions (humid, dry and semiarid) in three small watersheds and considering topography and soil properties as key factors. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with a resolution of 1×1m was derived from a topographical survey as well as soils were sampled to analyzed soil properties controlling topsoil moisture, which was measured during 4-years. Afterwards, some topography attributes were derived from the DEM, the soil properties analyzed in laboratory, and the topsoil moisture was modeled for the entire watersheds applying three geostatistical techniques: i) ordinary kriging; ii) co-kriging considering as co-variate topography attributes; and iii) co-kriging ta considering as co-variates topography attributes and gravel content. The results indicated topsoil moisture was more accurately mapped in the dry and semiarid watersheds when co-kriging procedure was performed. The study is a contribution to improve the efficiency and accuracy of studies about the Mediterranean eco-geomorphologic system and soil hydrology in field conditions.

  16. Grassland species differentially regulate proline concentrations under future climate conditions: an integrated biochemical and modelling approach.

    PubMed

    AbdElgawad, Hamada; De Vos, Dirk; Zinta, Gaurav; Domagalska, Malgorzata A; Beemster, Gerrit T S; Asard, Han

    2015-10-01

    Proline (Pro) is a versatile metabolite playing a role in the protection of plants against environmental stresses. To gain a deeper understanding of the regulation of Pro metabolism under predicted future climate conditions, including drought stress, elevated temperature and CO2 , we combined measurements in contrasting grassland species (two grasses and two legumes) at multiple organisational levels, that is, metabolite concentrations, enzyme activities and gene expression. Drought stress (D) activates Pro biosynthesis and represses its catabolism, and elevated temperature (DT) further elevated its content. Elevated CO2 attenuated the DT effect on Pro accumulation. Computational pathway control analysis allowed a mechanistic understanding of the regulatory changes in Pro metabolism. This analysis indicates that the experimentally observed coregulation of multiple enzymes is more effective in modulating Pro concentrations than regulation of a single step. Pyrroline-5-carboxylate synthetase (P5CS) and pyrroline-5-carboxylate reductase (P5CR) play a central role in grasses (Lolium perenne, Poa pratensis), and arginase (ARG), ornithine aminotransferase (OAT) and P5CR play a central role in legumes (Medicago lupulina, Lotus corniculatus). Different strategies in the regulation of Pro concentrations under stress conditions were observed. In grasses the glutamate pathway is activated predominantly, and in the legumes the ornithine pathway, possibly related to differences in N-nutritional status.

  17. Uncertainty of the hydrological response to climate change conditions; 605 basins, 3 hydrological models, 5 climate models, 5 hydrological variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melsen, Lieke; Mizukami, Naoki; Newman, Andrew; Clark, Martyn; Teuling, Adriaan

    2016-04-01

    Many studies investigated the effect of a changing climate on the hydrological response of a catchment and uncertainty of the effect coming from hydrologic modelling (e.g., forcing, hydrologic model structures, and parameters). However, most past studies used only a single or a small number of catchments. To go beyond the case-study, and to assess the uncertainty involved in modelling the hydrological impact of climate change more comprehensively, we studied 605 basins over a wide range of climate regimes throughout the contiguous USA. We used three different widely-used hydrological models (VIC, HBV, SAC), which we forced with five distinct climate model outputs. The hydrological models have been run for a base period (1986-2008) for which observations were available, and for a future period (2070-2099). Instead of calibrating each hydrological model for each basin, the model has been run with a parameter sample (varying from 1600 to 1900 samples dependent on the number of free parameters in the model). Five hydrological states and fluxes were stored; discharge, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, SWE and snow melt, and 15 different metrics and signatures have been obtained for each model run. With the results, we conduct a sensitivity analysis over the change in signatures from the future period compared to the base period. In this way, we can identify the parameters that are responsible for certain projected changes, and identify the processes responsible for this change. By using three different models, in which VIC is most distinctive in including explicit vegetation parameters, we can compare different process representations and the effect on the projected hydrological change.

  18. Response of tree growth to climatic variation and stand dynamics: Implications for modeling stand dynamics under varying climatic conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Graumlich, L.J.; Holmes, R.L. )

    1994-06-01

    We used tree-ring data to assess the relative importance of regional climate vs. stand-level processes in controlling tree growth for seven forest dominants of the mixed conifer forest of the Sierra Nevada. For each species, increment cores were collected from at least 20 canopy dominants at several sites arrayed along elevational gradients extending from lower to upper elevational limits. Species sampled include ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), Jeffrey pine (P. jeffreyi), sugar pine (P. lambertina), white fir (Abies concolor), red fir (A. magnifica), incense cedar (Calocedrus decurrens), and black oak (Quercus keloggii). Stand-level processes generate low to medium frequency variation in growth that is not held in common among trees within a site or between sites. Stand-level processes are most important for white and red fir and least important for ponderosa pine. Regional climatic variation generates medium to high frequency variation that is coherent among trees of the same species (and often same genera). Results such as these have utility for parameterizing and validating stand simulation models, especially for use in climatic change scenarios.

  19. Genotype and neuropsychological response inhibition as resilience promoters for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, oppositional defiant disorder, and conduct disorder under conditions of psychosocial adversity.

    PubMed

    Nigg, Joel; Nikolas, Molly; Friderici, Karen; Park, Leeyoung; Zucker, Robert A

    2007-01-01

    Whereas child personality, IQ, and family factors have been identified as enabling a resilient response to psychosocial adversity, more direct biological resilience factors have been less well delineated. This is particularly so for child attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), which has received less attention from a resilience perspective than have associated externalizing disorders. Children from two independent samples were classified as resilient if they avoided developing ADHD, oppositional defiant disorder (ODD), or conduct disorder (CD) in the face of family adversity. Two protective factors were examined for their potential relevance to prefrontal brain development: neuropsychological response inhibition, as assessed by the Stop task, and a composite catecholamine genotype risk score. Resilient children were characterized in both samples by more effective response inhibition, although the effect in the second sample was very small. Genotype was measured in Sample 1, and a composite high risk genotype index was developed by summing presence of risk across markers on three genes expressed in prefrontal cortex: dopamine transporter, dopamine D4 receptor, and noradrenergic alpha-2 receptor. Genotype was a reliable resilience indicator against development of ADHD and CD, but not ODD, in the face of psychosocial adversity. Results illustrate potential neurobiological protective factors related to development of prefrontal cortex that may enable children to avoid developing ADHD and CD in the presence of psychosocial adversity.

  20. Projected 21st Century Impacts of Climate Change on the Performance of the Los Angeles Aqueduct and Adaptation Measures to Mitigate Adverse Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mills, B.; Sayenko, K.; Roy, S. B.; Lew, C.

    2011-12-01

    One of the largest sources of drinking water to the City of Los Angeles (the City) comes from snow melt from the Eastern Sierra Nevada Mountains that drain into Owens Valley and Mono Basin. Much of this water is then transported to the City via the Los Angeles Aqueduct (LAA) originally built in 1913. During the 1980s and earlier, up to 500,000 acre-feet (af) of water was conveyed annually, but more recently less water has been transported due to increasing usage in Owens Valley, and due to a series of dry years.The City is concerned about potential impacts of climate change on this water supply, and commissioned the authors to perform a study to evaluate these potential impacts on both the infrastructure of the LAA and water supply to the City. This presentation focuses on the water supply issue, which has the potential to impact millions of customers. The study results presented here are part of a larger study where 16 global climate models were downscaled and applied to the Owens Valley and Mono Basin watersheds. This presentation begins by assuming base-of-mountain runoff is known from the 16 GCMs, and does not focus on the GCMs or downscaling.The results of the study described in this presentation are those of the authors and not of the LADWP. One of the most consequential findings of the study is the projected decrease in runoff from the watershed over the 21st century. While wet years are still dispersed between dry years, over the 21st century the loss in runoff is equivalent to approximately five years of historical average runoff. In addition to climate change impacts, water usage in the Owens valley is projected to increase over the 21st century and that increasing usage is projected to be comparable to climate change impacts. Eight adaptation options were identified to mitigate potential impacts. These included increasing storage volume of reservoirs in Owens Valley, changing operational rules for releasing water, construction of surface storage or

  1. Directed International Technological Change and Climate Policy: New Methods for Identifying Robust Policies Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molina-Perez, Edmundo

    : climate change, elasticity of substitution between renewable and fossil energy and three different sources of technological uncertainty (i.e. R&D returns, innovation propensity and technological transferability). The performance of eight different GCF and non-GCF based policy regimes is evaluated in light of various end-of-century climate policy targets. Then I combine traditional scenario discovery data mining methods (Bryant and Lempert, 2010) with high dimensional stacking methods (Suzuki, Stem and Manzocchi, 2015; Taylor et al., 2006; LeBlanc, Ward and Wittels, 1990) to quantitatively characterize the conditions under which it is possible to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions and keep temperature rise below 2°C before the end of the century. Finally, I describe a method by which it is possible to combine the results of scenario discovery with high-dimensional stacking to construct a dynamic architecture of low cost technological cooperation. This dynamic architecture consists of adaptive pathways (Kwakkel, Haasnoot and Walker, 2014; Haasnoot et al., 2013) which begin with carbon taxation across both regions as a critical near term action. Then in subsequent phases different forms of cooperation are triggered depending on the unfolding climate and technological conditions. I show that there is no single policy regime that dominates over the entire uncertainty space. Instead I find that it is possible to combine these different architectures into a dynamic framework for technological cooperation across regions that can be adapted to unfolding climate and technological conditions which can lead to a greater rate of success and to lower costs in meeting the end-of-century climate change objectives agreed at the 2015 Paris Conference of the Parties. Keywords: international technological change, emerging nations, climate change, technological uncertainties, Green Climate Fund.

  2. Seeing is Believing? An Examination of Perceptions of Local Weather Conditions and Climate Change Among Residents in the U.S. Gulf Coast.

    PubMed

    Shao, Wanyun; Goidel, Kirby

    2016-11-01

    What role do objective weather conditions play in coastal residents' perceptions of local climate shifts and how do these perceptions affect attitudes toward climate change? While scholars have increasingly investigated the role of weather and climate conditions on climate-related attitudes and behaviors, they typically assume that residents accurately perceive shifts in local climate patterns. We directly test this assumption using the largest and most comprehensive survey of Gulf Coast residents conducted to date supplemented with monthly temperature data from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network and extreme weather events data from National Climatic Data Center. We find objective conditions have limited explanatory power in determining perceptions of local climate patterns. Only the 15- and 19-year hurricane trends and decadal summer temperature trend have some effects on perceptions of these weather conditions, while the decadal trend of total number of extreme weather events and 15- and 19-year winter temperature trends are correlated with belief in climate change. Partisan affiliation, in contrast, plays a powerful role affecting individual perceptions of changing patterns of air temperatures, flooding, droughts, and hurricanes, as well as belief in the existence of climate change and concern for future consequences. At least when it comes to changing local conditions, "seeing is not believing." Political orientations rather than local conditions drive perceptions of local weather conditions and these perceptions-rather than objectively measured weather conditions-influence climate-related attitudes.

  3. Air conditioning versus heating: climate control is more energy demanding in Minneapolis than in Miami

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sivak, Michael

    2013-03-01

    Energy demand for climate control was analyzed for Miami (the warmest large metropolitan area in the US) and Minneapolis (the coldest large metropolitan area). The following relevant parameters were included in the analysis: (1) climatological deviations from the desired indoor temperature as expressed in heating and cooling degree days, (2) efficiencies of heating and cooling appliances, and (3) efficiencies of power-generating plants. The results indicate that climate control in Minneapolis is about 3.5 times as energy demanding as in Miami. This finding suggests that, in the US, living in cold climates is more energy demanding than living in hot climates.

  4. Agricultural machineries wheeling and soil qualities mapping in climatic changes conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bergonzoli, S.; Servadio, P.

    2012-04-01

    and on control areas, a software GIS was used. Results shown the highest level of soil compaction caused by the traffic of WTN in term of CI and SS. In fact, increment ratio respect to the control measured after the tractors pass were: CI = 0.65 and 0.14 for WTN and for WTEL respectively; SS = 0.65 and 0.46 for WTN and WTEL respectively. Comparing the two different tires, significant differences were found particularly in the surface layers (0-0.20 m depth): mean values of CI and SS were higher for WTN (0.47 and 1.60 respectively) respect to WTEL. Track area covered by the two treatments respect to the whole field (16.32 ha) were: 0.025 for treatment WTN (0.27 m tires width) having an operative work width of 24 m ; 0.075 for treatment WTEL (0.85 m tires width) having an operative work width of 14 m. Results of this study highlighted that, in these field conditions (clay soil, water content over field capacity), tractor pass with very narrow tires caused a soil compaction level too high up to be impossible to traffic into the field. To operate at these soil water content conditions a tractors fitted with low aspect ratio and low inflation pressure tires is necessary. With lower soil water content, narrow tires allow carrying out fertilization into the inter-row avoiding crop trampling and compacting less percentage of field area respect to the a tractor equipped with large tires. Key words: Tractor, Soil trafficability, Soil compaction, Tires, GPS, GIS. Acknowledgements This work was carried out under the auspices of the special project "Sceneries of adaptation of the Italian agriculture to the climatic changes" (AGROSCENARI) of the Agricultural Research Council, and Italian Ministry of the Agricultural and Forestry Politics.

  5. Flight initiation of Triatoma infestans (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) under natural climatic conditions.

    PubMed

    Gurevitz, Juan M; Ceballos, Leonardo A; Kitron, Uriel; Gürtler, Ricardo E

    2006-03-01

    Flight dispersal of Triatoma infestans Klug is probably the most important mechanism for house reinfestation at a village scale after residual spraying with insecticides. The aim of the current study was to estimate the flight initiation probability of field-collected T. infestans and to assess how this probability was affected by sex, adult age, partial bloodmeal, and the presence of a host inaccessible for feeding. Four experimental series, each consisting of three to six consecutive nights and repeated measurements of flight initiation on each individually marked bug, were carried out in experimental huts inside closed cages under natural climatic conditions. We demonstrate that flight initiation probability of T. infestans is much higher than previously reported, responds to temperature in a sigmoid manner, and is higher in females than males, and that the frequency distribution of the number of flights per individual is highly aggregated in female and male bugs. The age of adults had strong effects on flight initiation, whereas the presence of an inaccessible host and a partial bloodmeal exerted no significant effects in models controlling for the effects of bug weight-to-length ratio. The high flight potential found is consistent with the rapid changes in reinfestation patterns observed in the field. The present estimates of flight probabilities and the identification of factors modifying them provide essential knowledge for modeling reinfestation patterns and for improving control strategies of T.

  6. Influence of climatic conditions on white tip disease (Phytophthora porri) in leek (Allium porrum).

    PubMed

    De Jonghe, K; Keirsebilck, D; Martens, K; Buysens, S; Höfte, M

    2002-01-01

    In leek, one of the major vegetable crops in Belgium, Phytophthora porri causes the so-called white tip disease. During the growing seasons of 1999, 2000 and 2001 the incidence of the white tip disease and the role of environmental conditions in the appearance were investigated on several non-treated leek fields in Flanders (Belgium). The first symptoms of white tip disease on leek where recorded in July and the disease progressed until March. Lesions appeared after an incubation period of 91 to 204 DD (degree days above -3 degrees C) (t0) and were diagnostic at 120 DD. The obtained data confirmed a disease increase corresponding with an amount of rainfall of more than 20 l/m2 in 4 days in the period t = t0-92 to t = t0-154 DD. A good correlation was found between the daily disease increase on one hand and the leaf wetness, relative humidity and temperature (negative correlation) on the other hand. Daily disease increase only weakly correlated with rainfall. Based on these results recommendations can be made (for further studies) to develop a model, combining several of the climatic factors, to predict infection periods with high risk on disease increase in the production of leek.

  7. Optimal Deployment of Thermal Energy Storage under Diverse Economic and Climate Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    DeForest, Nicolas; Mendes, Goncalo; Stadler, Michael; Feng, Wei; Lai, Judy; Marnay, Chris

    2014-04-15

    This paper presents an investigation of the economic benefit of thermal energy storage (TES) for cooling, across a range of economic and climate conditions. Chilled water TES systems are simulated for a large office building in four distinct locations, Miami in the U.S.; Lisbon, Portugal; Shanghai, China; and Mumbai, India. Optimal system size and operating schedules are determined using the optimization model DER-CAM, such that total cost, including electricity and amortized capital costs are minimized. The economic impacts of each optimized TES system is then compared to systems sized using a simple heuristic method, which bases system size as fraction (50percent and 100percent) of total on-peak summer cooling loads. Results indicate that TES systems of all sizes can be effective in reducing annual electricity costs (5percent-15percent) and peak electricity consumption (13percent-33percent). The investigation also indentifies a number of criteria which drive TES investment, including low capital costs, electricity tariffs with high power demand charges and prolonged cooling seasons. In locations where these drivers clearly exist, the heuristically sized systems capture much of the value of optimally sized systems; between 60percent and 100percent in terms of net present value. However, in instances where these drivers are less pronounced, the heuristic tends to oversize systems, and optimization becomes crucial to ensure economically beneficial deployment of TES, increasing the net present value of heuristically sized systems by as much as 10 times in some instances.

  8. Thermographic evaluation of climatic conditions on lambs from different genetic groups

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    do Prado Paim, Tiago; Borges, Bárbara Oliveira; de Mello Tavares Lima, Paulo; Gomes, Edgard Franco; Dallago, Bruno Stéfano Lima; Fadel, Rossala; de Menezes, Adriana Morato; Louvandini, Helder; Canozzi, Maria Eugênia Andrighetto; Barcellos, Júlio Otavio Jardim; McManus, Concepta

    2013-01-01

    In production systems the characterization of genetic resources in relation to their capacity to respond to environmental conditions is necessary. The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of infrared thermography for separation of animals from different genetic groups and determine which phenotypic traits are important for climatic adaptation. A total of 126 suckling lambs from four different genetic groups (Santa Inês - SI, Bergamasca - B, Bergamasca X Santa Inês - BS, and Ile de France X Santa Inês - IL) were used. The animals were divided into two groups, one housed and another in an outside paddock. Thermograph photographs were taken at four-hour intervals over three full days. Temperatures of the nose, skull, neck, fore and rear flanks and rump were measured, as well as coat depth, the density and length of hairs, reflectance and color. The daily temperature range during the experimental period was more than 20°C, with animals experiencing heat (12 h to 15 h) and cold (24 h to 4 h) stress. The three main phenotypic traits that influenced genetic group separation were hair density, height of coat, and length of hairs. Thermograph temperatures were able to detect different responses of the genetic groups to the environment. Therefore, infrared thermography is a promising technique to evaluate the response of animals to the environment and to differentiate between genetic groups.

  9. Microbial biogeography of wine grapes is conditioned by cultivar, vintage, and climate

    PubMed Central

    Bokulich, Nicholas A.; Thorngate, John H.; Richardson, Paul M.; Mills, David A.

    2014-01-01

    Wine grapes present a unique biogeography model, wherein microbial biodiversity patterns across viticultural zones not only answer questions of dispersal and community maintenance, they are also an inherent component of the quality, consumer acceptance, and economic appreciation of a culturally important food product. On their journey from the vineyard to the wine bottle, grapes are transformed to wine through microbial activity, with indisputable consequences for wine quality parameters. Wine grapes harbor a wide range of microbes originating from the surrounding environment, many of which are recognized for their role in grapevine health and wine quality. However, determinants of regional wine characteristics have not been identified, but are frequently assumed to stem from viticultural or geological factors alone. This study used a high-throughput, short-amplicon sequencing approach to demonstrate that regional, site-specific, and grape-variety factors shape the fungal and bacterial consortia inhabiting wine-grape surfaces. Furthermore, these microbial assemblages are correlated to specific climatic features, suggesting a link between vineyard environmental conditions and microbial inhabitation patterns. Taken together, these factors shape the unique microbial inputs to regional wine fermentations, posing the existence of nonrandom “microbial terroir” as a determining factor in regional variation among wine grapes. PMID:24277822

  10. Energy-Efficient Supermarket Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning in Humid Climates in the United States

    SciTech Connect

    Clark, J.

    2015-03-01

    Supermarkets are energy-intensive buildings that consume the greatest amount of electricity per square foot of building of any building type in the United States and represent 5% of total U.S. commercial building primary energy use (EIA 2005). Refrigeration and heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems are responsible for a large proportion of supermarkets’ total energy use. These two systems sometimes work together and sometimes compete, but the performance of one system always affects the performance of the other. To better understand these challenges and opportunities, the Commercial Buildings team at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory investigated several of the most promising strategies for providing energy-efficient HVAC for supermarkets and quantified the resulting energy use and costs using detailed simulations. This research effort was conducted on behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Commercial Building Partnerships (CBP) (Baechler et al. 2012; Parrish et al. 2013; Antonopoulos et al. 2014; Hirsch et al. 2014). The goal of CBP was to reduce energy use in the commercial building sector by creating, testing, and validating design concepts on the pathway to net zero energy commercial buildings. Several CBP partners owned or operated buildings containing supermarkets and were interested in optimizing the energy efficiency of supermarket HVAC systems in hot-humid climates. These partners included Walmart, Target, Whole Foods Market, SUPERVALU, and the Defense Commissary Agency.

  11. Relationship of climatic conditions to fecal corticosterone levels of captive cheetahs reared in Japan.

    PubMed

    Uetake, Katsuji; Une, Yumi; Ito, Shu; Yamabe, Marino; Toyoda, Hideto; Tanaka, Toshio

    2014-10-01

    To assess the stress level of cheetahs reared in Japan and to identify the prime components of the climatic conditions that affect their thermal stress, fecal corticosterone was monitored for 8 months from May to the following January. A total of 203 fecal samples were gathered in the morning from seven adult cheetahs that were kept at a zoological garden in Wakayama, Japan. Cheetahs were on exhibit singly or together with a harmonious conspecific during the day, but housed singly at night. Although the monthly fluctuation in corticosterone concentrations was not significant, the concentrations were relatively low during the summer season. Individual differences among cheetahs and the interaction effect between individual and month on the corticosterone concentrations were significant. Whereas the corticosterone concentrations negatively correlated with air temperature, they were positively correlated with the amount of rainfall. The highest air temperature and the amount of rainfall were extracted as the prime factors affecting corticosterone concentrations. These results suggest that cheetahs reared in Japan are somewhat subjected to thermal stress, particularly on cooler and/or rainy days.

  12. Millennial-scale climate variability in response to changing glacial and orbital boundary conditions during the Mid-Pleistocene transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferretti, Patrizia; Crowhurst, Simon; Drysdale, Russell; Bajo, Petra; Barbante, Carlo

    2016-04-01

    The Mid-Pleistocene transition represents perhaps the most important climate transition in the Quaternary period, yet it is one of the most poorly understood. Although the exact timing and mechanism of the onset of the "100 kyr" regime remain a matter of debate, it is well established that the overall periodicity of the glacial-interglacial cycles changed from a dominant 41 kyr obliquity periodicity prior to ~0.9 Ma to a dominant late Pleistocene 100 kyr variance. This change in the frequency domain was associated with an increase in the amplitude of global ice volume variations that, superimposed on a long-term climatic trend towards more glacial conditions over millions of years, produced some of the most extreme glaciations recorded. This interval of time has often been considered to be important in relation to long-term Milankovitch-scale climate variability. In contrast, here, special emphasis will be placed on assessing the presence and the characteristics of the suborbital-scale variability, and reconstructing the evolution of millennial-scale climate variability as the average climate state evolve toward generally colder conditions with larger ice sheets, and the spectral character of climate variability shifted from dominantly 41 kyr to 100 kyr. Appealing evidence suggests that millennial-scale climate variability is amplified during times of intense forcing changes, but this rapid variability has not been thoroughly explored yet at the time when the major changes in climate periodicity occurred. To address these questions, we have examined the record of climatic conditions from Marine Isotope Stages 25 to 16 (~970-650 ka) using high-resolution stable isotope records from benthic and planktonic foraminifera from a sedimentary sequence in the North Atlantic (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 306, Site U1313) in order to assess millennial-scale changes in sea-surface and deep-water conditions, the dynamics of thermohaline deep-water circulation

  13. Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

    2017-01-01

    The rates of anthropogenic climate change substantially exceed those at which forest ecosystems - dominated by immobile, long-lived organisms - are able to adapt. The resulting maladaptation of forests has potentially detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, as many forest-dwelling species are highly dependent on the prevailing tree species, a delayed response of the latter to a changing climate can contribute to an extinction debt and mask climate-induced biodiversity loss. However, climate change will likely also intensify forest disturbances. Here, we tested the hypothesis that disturbances foster the reorganization of ecosystems and catalyze the adaptation of forest composition to climate change. Our specific objectives were (i) to quantify the rate of autonomous forest adaptation to climate change, (ii) examine the role of disturbance in the adaptation process, and (iii) investigate spatial differences in climate-induced species turnover in an unmanaged mountain forest landscape (Kalkalpen National Park, Austria). Simulations with a process-based forest landscape model were performed for 36 unique combinations of climate and disturbance scenarios over 1000 years. We found that climate change strongly favored European beech and oak species (currently prevailing in mid- to low-elevation areas), with novel species associations emerging on the landscape. Yet, it took between 357 and 706 years before the landscape attained a dynamic equilibrium with the climate system. Disturbances generally catalyzed adaptation and decreased the time needed to attain equilibrium by up to 211 years. However, while increasing disturbance frequency and severity accelerated adaptation, increasing disturbance size had the opposite effect. Spatial analyses suggest that particularly the lowest and highest elevation areas will be hotspots of future species change. We conclude that the growing maladaptation of forests to climate and the long lead times of autonomous

  14. White willow sexual regeneration capacity under estuarine conditions in times of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Markus-Michalczyk, Heike; Hanelt, Dieter; Denstorf, Julian; Jensen, Kai

    2016-10-01

    Tidal wetlands provide both habitats for coastal populations and wildlife, and ecosystem services for human welfare. Building with nature regarding cost-effective coastal protection is of increasing interest. Much research has been carried out on plant reproduction capacities in mangroves and salt marshes, but less is known on this issue in tidal freshwater wetlands. Willows are being successfully used for bank stabilization in riverine habitats, however, today white willow softwood forests in tidal wetlands are highly fragmented, and restoration is required e.g. by the European Habitats Directive. Recently, tolerance to increasing salinity and tidal flooding was found for vegetative propagules of floodplain willows. However, the establishment of autochthonous sexual recruits is necessary to conserve the genetic diversity of local populations, and thus may be preferable in restoration. The germination and early seedling establishment of Salix alba (white willow) was experimentally studied under simulated estuarine conditions. The species tolerance to increasing salinity (0, 0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2) was tested in a climate chamber, and its tolerance to flooding at different tidal treatments (control, spring tide, daily tide 15 min and 2 h flooding) in the greenhouse. Germination was neither affected by increasing salinity nor by tidal flooding. Salix seedlings established up to salinity 1.5, but cotyledon performance and radicle growth was largely reduced at salinity 2. Under tidal flooding, seedling growth was similar in all treatments. However, in the treatments with daily tides seedling anchorage in the substrate took more than two weeks, and fewer seedlings reached a suitable length to approach the high water line. We assess S. alba sexual regeneration under estuarine conditions as generally possible. Further studies are needed on the effects of sedimentation-erosion processes on willow establishment in the field, especially on feedbacks between Salix survival and

  15. Opportunities for improving leaf water use efficiency under climate change conditions.

    PubMed

    Gago, Jorge; Douthe, Cyril; Florez-Sarasa, Igor; Escalona, Jose M; Galmes, Jeroni; Fernie, Alisdair R; Flexas, Jaume; Medrano, Hipolito

    2014-09-01

    WUEi (intrinsic water use efficiency) is a complex (multi)-trait, that depends on several physiological processes, driving plant productivity and its relation with a changing environment. Climatic change predictions estimate increases in temperature and drought in the semi-arid regions, rendering improved water use efficiency is a mandatory objective to maintain the current global food supply. The aims of this review were (i) to identify through a meta-analysis the leaf traits mostly related to intrinsic water use efficiency (WUEi, the ratio between A - net photosynthesis and gs - stomatal conductance), based on a newly compiled dataset covering more than 200 species/varieties and 106 genus of C3 plants (ii) to describe the main potential targets for WUEi improvement via biotechnological manipulations and (iii) to introduce emergent and innovative technologies including UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) to scale up levels from leaf to whole plant water status. We confirmed that increases in gm/gs and Vcmax/gs ratios are systematically related with increases in WUEi maintained across species, habitats, and environmental conditions. Other emergent opportunities to improve WUEi are described such as the relationship between photosynthesis and respiration and their link with metabolomics. Finally, we outline our hypothesis that we are observing the advent of a "smart" agriculture, wherein new technologies, such as UAVs equipped with remote sensors will rapidly facilitate an efficient water use regulating the irrigation schedule and determination, under field conditions, of cultivars with improved water use efficiency. We, therefore, conclude that the multi-disciplinary challenge toward WUE has only just begun.

  16. Eco-climatic Conditions Associated with Rift Valley fever Activity in Southern Africa in 2008-2011

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The time period 2008-2011 has been marked by a series of Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks in Southern Africa. These multi-year episodes of RVF have not occurred in the region since the mid-1970s. We examine climatic and ecological conditions associated with the outbreaks and present results of our ...

  17. DOE Final Report on Collaborative Research. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks of the Terrestrial Biosphere under Thawing Permafrost Conditions in the Arctic

    SciTech Connect

    Zhuang, Qianlai; Schlosser, C. Adam; Melillo, Jerry M.; Anthony, Katey Walter; Kicklighter, David; Gao, Xiang

    2015-11-03

    Our overall goal is to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically-forced climate warming, and the conditions under which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes to the landscape of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, across the Arctic. Through a suite of numerical experiments that encapsulate the fundamental processes governing methane emissions and carbon exchanges – as well as their coupling to the global climate system - we intend to test the following hypothesis in the proposed research: There exists a climate warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and stimulates large increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and poorly-drained wetland areas upon thawing permafrost along with microbial metabolic responses to higher temperatures) and increases in carbon dioxide emissions from well-drained areas. Besides changes in biogeochemistry, this threshold will also influence global energy dynamics through effects on surface albedo, evapotranspiration and water vapor. These changes would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands and higher plant photosynthesis) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.

  18. SIMULATING REGIONAL-SCALE AIR QUALITY WITH DYNAMIC CHANGES IN REGIONAL CLIMATE AND CHEMICAL BOUNDARY CONDITIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This poster compares air quality modeling simulations under current climate and a future (approximately 2050) climate scenario. Differences in predicted ozone episodes and daily average PM2.5 concentrations are presented, along with vertical ozone profiles. Modeling ...

  19. Analysis of induction and establishment of dwarf bunt of wheat under marginal climatic conditions.

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Dwarf bunt caused by Tilletia contraversa has limited distribution due to essential climatic requirements; primarily persistent snow cover. The pathogen is a quarantine organism in several countries outside of the USA, some of which may have marginal climate for the disease, including the People’s ...

  20. Analysis of induction and establishment of dwarf bunt of wheat under marginal climatic conditions.

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Dwarf bunt caused by Tilletia contraversa is a disease of winter wheat that has a limited geographic distribution due to specific winter climate requirements. The pathogen is listed as a quarantine organism by several countries that may have wheat production areas with inadequate or marginal climat...

  1. : “Developing Regional Modeling Techniques Applicable for Simulating Future Climate Conditions in the Carolinas”

    EPA Science Inventory

    Global climate models (GCMs) are currently used to obtain information about future changes in the large-scale climate. However, such simulations are typically done at coarse spatial resolutions, with model grid boxes on the order of 100 km on a horizontal side. Therefore, techniq...

  2. The Influence of Ground Moisture Conditions on Summertime Climate as Modeled in a GCM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rind, D.

    1982-01-01

    To test the influence of the ground moisture on the summertime climate the GISS general circulation model is used. The version used had 8 x 10 deg horizontal resolution and 9 layers in the vertical. This version produces a good simulation of the current climate.

  3. Evaluating the impact of demand-side management on water resources under changing climatic conditions and increasing population.

    PubMed

    Dawadi, Srijana; Ahmad, Sajjad

    2013-01-15

    This study investigated the effect of increasing population and changing climatic conditions on the water resources of a semi-arid region, the Las Vegas Valley (LVV) in southern Nevada. A system dynamics model was developed for the LVV from 1989 to 2035. The impact of climate change on water demand and the water supply from the Colorado River was modeled, using projections from 16 global climate models for 3 emission scenarios. Variability in water demand and supply under different scenarios of population growth and demand management, including water conservation and water pricing, was evaluated. With the population growth that was projected, if no further demand management policies were implemented, the LVV would not be able to meet the water demand in the near future. However, by combining water conservation and pricing policies, the available supply could last well into the future. The reduction in water demand in 2035 was predicted to be 327 million cubic meters (MCM) for 'status quo' population growth, or 30.6%; 408 MCM for 50% of the projected growth, or 38%; and 511 MCM for no population growth, or 47.8%. Water supply reliability decreased significantly with changing climatic conditions. Therefore, major challenges to water sustainability in the LVV would be due to rapid population growth as well as to climate variability. However, with the combination of reduced population growth rate and water conservation policies, the Colorado River supply could meet the future demand of the LVV most of the time.

  4. Forest management under changing climate conditions: Is timing a tool for Sustainable Forest Management? Relevant questions for research development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Aprile, Fabrizio; McShane, Paul; Tapper, Nigel

    2013-04-01

    Change of climate conditions influence energy fluxes applicable to forest ecosystems. These affect cycles of nutrients and materials, primary productivity of the ecosystem, biodiversity, ecological functionality and, consequently, carbon equilibria of the forest ecosystem. Temporal factors influence physical, biological, ecological, and climatic processes and functions. For example, seasonality, cycles, periodicity, and trends in climate variables; tree growth, forest growth, and forest metabolic activities (i.e., photosynthesis and respiration) are commonly known to be time-related. In tropical forests, the impacts of changing climate conditions may exceed temperature and/or precipitation thresholds critical to forest tree growth or health. Historically, forest management emphasises growth rates and financial returns as affected by species and site. Until recently, the influence of climate variability on growth dynamics has not been influential in forest planning and management. Under this system, especially in climatic and forest regions where most of species are stenoecious, periodical wood harvesting may occur in any phase of growth (increasing, decreasing, peak, and trough). This scenario presents four main situations: a) harvesting occurs when the rate of growth is decreasing: future productivity is damaged; the minimum biomass capital may be altered, and CO2 storage is negatively affected; b) harvesting occurs during a trough of the rate of growth: the minimum biomass capital necessary to preserve the resilience of the forest is damaged; the damage can be temporary (decades) or permanent; CO2 storage capacity is deficient - which may be read as an indirect emission of CO2 since the balance appears negative; c) harvesting occurs when the rate of growth is increasing: the planned wood mass can be used without compromising the resilience and recovery of the forest; CO2 storage remains increasing; d) harvesting occurs during a peak period of growth: the wood

  5. Human thermal comfort conditions and urban planning in hot-humid climates-The case of Cuba.

    PubMed

    Rodríguez Algeciras, José Abel; Coch, Helena; De la Paz Pérez, Guillermo; Chaos Yeras, Mabel; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2016-08-01

    Climate regional characteristics, urban environmental conditions, and outdoors thermal comfort requirements of residents are important for urban planning. Basic studies of urban microclimate can provide information and useful resources to predict and improve thermal conditions in hot-humid climatic regions. The paper analyzes the thermal bioclimate and its influence as urban design factor in Cuba, using Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET). Simulations of wind speed variations and shade conditions were performed to quantify changes in thermal bioclimate due to possible modifications in urban morphology. Climate data from Havana, Camagüey, and Santiago of Cuba for the period 2001 to 2012 were used to calculate PET with the RayMan model. The results show that changes in meteorological parameters influence the urban microclimate, and consequently modify the thermal conditions in outdoors spaces. Shade is the predominant strategy to improve urban microclimate with more significant benefits in terms of PET higher than 30 °C. For climatic regions such as the analyzed ones, human thermal comfort can be improved by a wind speed modification for thresholds of PET above 30 °C, and by a wind speed decreases in conditions below 26 °C. The improvement of human thermal conditions is crucial for urban sustainability. On this regards, our study is a contribution for urban designers, due to the possibility of taking advantage of results for improving microclimatic conditions based on urban forms. The results may enable urban planners to create spaces that people prefer to visit, and also are usable in the reconfiguration of cities.

  6. Role of the tissue free amino acids in adaptation of medicinal leeches Hirudo medicinalis L., 1758 to extreme climatic conditions.

    PubMed

    Chernaya, L V; Kovalchuk, L A; Nokhrina, E S

    2016-01-01

    The first comparison of the spectra of free amino acids in tissues of the medicinal leeches H. medicinalis from different climatic and geographical Eurasian areas has been performed. Adaptation of H. medicinalis to extreme climatic conditions occurs via intensification of the amino acid metabolism resulting from a significant increase in the content of essential amino acids. Accumulation of arginine, histidine, and lysine (3.6-, 3.9-, and 2.0-fold increases, respectively) has proved to play a special protective role in adaptation of H. medicinalis to the low positive temperatures.

  7. Experimental evaluation of insecticidal paints against Triatoma infestans (Hemiptera: Reduviidae), under natural climatic conditions

    PubMed Central

    Amelotti, Ivana; Catalá, Silvia S; Gorla, David E

    2009-01-01

    Background Triatoma infestans is the main vector of Chagas disease in the Gran Chaco region of South America. The traditional spraying technique used for the application of pyrethroid insecticides has shown low efficiency in the elimination of the vector species populations occupying peridomestic structures of rural houses in the endemic area of Argentina. As part of studies looking for better alternatives, we evaluated the residual effect of insecticidal paints on the mortality of fourth instar nymphs of T. infestans. Results The study was based on an experimental design that included two groups treated with an organophosphate (Inesfly 5A IGR™) and a pyrethroid (Inesfly 5A IGR NG™) formulations of the paint, that were applied on wood, cement blocks and adobe bricks under natural climatic conditions. A third group was an untreated control. Both paint formulations showed very long residual activity, producing mortality of 84% and 98% (pyrethroid and organophosphate formulations, respectively) after 12 months of the paint application. After eight months, nymphs exposed during 6 hours to the painted surfaces with the pyrethroid and organophosphate formulations showed 81.33% and 100% mortality, respectively. Conclusion The organophosphate- and pyrethroid-based insecticidal paints showed a very long residual activity on the mortality of fourth instar nymphs of T infestans, compared with the traditional spraying technique used for the application of pyrethroid insecticides in peridomestic structures of rural houses in the endemic region for Chagas disease in the Gran Chaco of Argentina. The application of the paints by trained personnel of the vector control programmes could be considered as an alternative control tool in areas where the traditional methods have failed or showed low efficacy. PMID:19586532

  8. Monitoring present day climatic conditions in tropical caves using an Environmental Data Acquisition System (EDAS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sondag, Francis; van Ruymbeke, Michel; Soubiès, François; Santos, Roberto; Somerhausen, André; Seidel, Alexandre; Boggiani, Paulo

    2003-03-01

    This paper presents data from automatic stations which have been installed for monitoring climatic parameters in caves in two areas of Brazil. These devices, initially developed at the Royal Observatory of Belgium to monitor environmental parameters in geophysical observatories, were adapted in our study to operate under tropical cave conditions and to measure temperature, atmospheric pressure and drip rate of stalactites. Similar devices were installed at the surface near to the caves to measure air temperature, atmospheric pressure and rainfall. The results reveal that the drip rate at the tip of stalactites is related to the effective rainfall (water excess). The stable drip regime observed during the dry season seems to be reproducible from one year to the other and could be related to the infiltration of water which has a long residence time in the aquifer. Regular pressure oscillations, with amplitude ranging between 1 and 2 mb, are observed in both of the monitored caves. Spectral analysis of the data suggests that these oscillations are linked to the diurnal and semi-diurnal solar tides (S1 and S2). In one cave, very small temperature variations (0.02-0.05 °C) are also observed with a similar diurnal and semi-diurnal pattern, and we argue that the generating process of the thermal components of the S1 and S2 frequencies is a mixture of thermal convection produced by the surface meteorological variations and of an adiabatic induction of the S2 atmospheric pressure modulation. A very large annual thermal amplitude (13 °C) is observed in the other cave; this is a great motivation to study the stable isotope geochemistry of its speleothems as they probably have recorded past temperature fluctuations linked to paleoclimate variations in this area of south-western Brazil.

  9. Analysis of spatial patterns in near surface micro climatic conditions within Delhi Metropolitan Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roy, S. S.

    2008-12-01

    Over the last few decades there have been increasing awareness about Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect observed in particular large urban metropolitan regions. The most predominant characteristic of UHI is a warmer surface temperature across urban areas. Importantly, studies on UHI in the more densely populated and developing parts of Asia are rare. In this context, Delhi Metropolitan Region (DMR) is an excellent case study to explore the development of UHI, as it typifies an Asian mega city with a rapidly increasing population and associated anthropogenic effects on the urban environment. The impact of the UHI can also be traced to increased incidences of heat wave-related deaths and cardiovascular diseases. Some of the major determining factors of UHI development are the nature of land cover, size and urban morphology, population, and radiative property of the construction material broadly determine the spatial patterns of UHI occurrence. In order to determine the spatial pattern of local micro level variations in environmental factors on the prevailing climatic conditions, a set of 10 temporary weather stations were setup in different parts of the DMR for a one year period from June 2007 to July 2008. These stations recorded the air and dew point temperature, and relative humidity at hourly interval during the study period. The results of the analyses of the observed field data indicate substantial differences in the spatial patterns of variables under study, which were directly related to the prevailing land use and land cover. In the case of some of the sites there was an average time lag of approximately 2 hours for the time of maximum for both maximum and minimum temperatures. One of the sites, which were located in a less densely built-up area, with more parks and gardens surrounding it, recorded lower average temperatures.

  10. The role of vegetation for tropospheric ozone balance: possible changes under future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Cheng; Pullinen, Iida; Andres, Stefanie; Carriero, Giulia; Fares, Silvano; Hacker, Lina; Kiendler-Scharr, Astrid; Kleist, Einhard; Paoletti, Elena; Wahner, Andreas; Wildt, Jürgen; Mentel, Thomas F.

    2015-04-01

    Ozone (O3) is a phytotoxic trace gas in the troposphere where it is photochemically produced from volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). The dominant sink of O3 in the air over areas with dense plant cover is dry deposition on plant surfaces. However, plants can also contribute to photochemical O3 formation because they emit biogenic VOCs (BVOCs). In this study, the role of vegetation for tropospheric ozone balance was investigated by considering the following processes: O3 depletion by dry deposition on plant surfaces, O3 depletion by gas phase reactions with plant emitted BVOCs, and photochemical O3 production from these BVOCs. Furthermore, drought and heat stress were applied to the plants, and the stress-induced changes of plant performance and the subsequent changes regarding the tropospheric ozone balance were investigated. Dry deposition of O3 in unstressed plants was dominated by O3 uptake through the plants stomata with negligible losses on cuticle and stem. For strong BVOC emitters, O3 destruction by gas phase reactions with BVOCs was significant at low NOx conditions. Switching from low NOx to high NOx conditions led to O3 production. A ratio of O3 formation rates over BVOC loss rates was measured for α-pinene as single BVOC and for BVOC mixtures emitted from real plants. For O3 formation under BVOC limited conditions, this ratio was in the range of 2-3 ppb/ppb. The ratio of O3 uptake/BVOC emission reflects the capability of a plant as a potential source of O3, while NOx concentrations and the BVOC/NOx ratio determine whether the emitted BVOCs act as an additional sink or a source of O3. O3 uptake rates and BVOC emission rates are affected by environmental variables such as temperature, light intensity and stresses to plants. The impacts of these variables on the two processes are different and thus the capability of a plant to be a source of O3 is also affected. As future climate change will bring more and intense heat waves and

  11. Interpopulational Variations in Sexual Chemical Signals of Iberian Wall Lizards May Allow Maximizing Signal Efficiency under Different Climatic Conditions

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Sexual signals used in intraspecific communication are expected to evolve to maximize efficacy under a given climatic condition. Thus, chemical secretions of lizards might evolve in the evolutionary time to ensure that signals are perfectly tuned to local humidity and temperature conditions affecting their volatility and therefore their persistence and transmission through the environment. We tested experimentally whether interpopulational altitudinal differences in chemical composition of femoral gland secretions of male Iberian wall lizards (Podarcis hispanicus) have evolved to maximize efficacy of chemical signals in different environmental conditions. Chemical analyses first showed that the characteristics of chemical signals of male lizards differed between two populations inhabiting environments with different climatic conditions in spite of the fact that these two populations are closely related genetically. We also examined experimentally whether the temporal attenuation of the chemical stimuli depended on simulated climatic conditions. Thus, we used tongue-flick essays to test whether female lizards were able to detect male scent marks maintained under different conditions of temperature and humidity by chemosensory cues alone. Chemosensory tests showed that chemical signals of males had a lower efficacy (i.e. detectability and persistence) when temperature and dryness increase, but that these effects were more detrimental for signals of the highest elevation population, which occupies naturally colder and more humid environments. We suggest that the abiotic environment may cause a selective pressure on the form and expression of sexual chemical signals. Therefore, interpopulational differences in chemical profiles of femoral secretions of male P. hispanicus lizards may reflect adaptation to maximize the efficacy of the chemical signal in different climates. PMID:26121693

  12. Interpopulational Variations in Sexual Chemical Signals of Iberian Wall Lizards May Allow Maximizing Signal Efficiency under Different Climatic Conditions.

    PubMed

    Martín, José; Ortega, Jesús; López, Pilar

    2015-01-01

    Sexual signals used in intraspecific communication are expected to evolve to maximize efficacy under a given climatic condition. Thus, chemical secretions of lizards might evolve in the evolutionary time to ensure that signals are perfectly tuned to local humidity and temperature conditions affecting their volatility and therefore their persistence and transmission through the environment. We tested experimentally whether interpopulational altitudinal differences in chemical composition of femoral gland secretions of male Iberian wall lizards (Podarcis hispanicus) have evolved to maximize efficacy of chemical signals in different environmental conditions. Chemical analyses first showed that the characteristics of chemical signals of male lizards differed between two populations inhabiting environments with different climatic conditions in spite of the fact that these two populations are closely related genetically. We also examined experimentally whether the temporal attenuation of the chemical stimuli depended on simulated climatic conditions. Thus, we used tongue-flick essays to test whether female lizards were able to detect male scent marks maintained under different conditions of temperature and humidity by chemosensory cues alone. Chemosensory tests showed that chemical signals of males had a lower efficacy (i.e. detectability and persistence) when temperature and dryness increase, but that these effects were more detrimental for signals of the highest elevation population, which occupies naturally colder and more humid environments. We suggest that the abiotic environment may cause a selective pressure on the form and expression of sexual chemical signals. Therefore, interpopulational differences in chemical profiles of femoral secretions of male P. hispanicus lizards may reflect adaptation to maximize the efficacy of the chemical signal in different climates.

  13. Pleistocene calcrete deposits from southern Spain as indicators of climatic conditions and tectonic activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herrero, Maria J.; Insua-Arevalo, Juan M.; Garcia-Mayordomo, Julian; Martin-Banda, Raquel

    2014-05-01

    Quaternary calcrete horizons are common weathering products in arid and semi-arid regions of southern Spain. We have analysed a calcrete profile developed within poorly sorted gravels of an alluvial fan. These deposits were sourced from the Carrascoy Range, a fault generated mountain front located in the Internal Zones of the Betic Cordillera (South Spain). During the Pleistocene the climate in southern Spain was dry, either in the form of semi-arid/arid conditions or as seasonal moisture deficits. Alluvial channel incision trends appeared to be disrupted by episodes of alluvial aggradation produced during cold and dry glacial periods. At the top of the aggradational phases, pedogenic processes operated profusely, and, as a result, several calcretes (stage V mature calcrete profiles) were formed. We have analysed one of these calcrete profiles that appears subvertical within the forelimb of a regional fold in relation to the Carrascoy Fault activity. The calcrete consist of a densely cemented hardpan horizon (20 to 40 cm thick) overlain by a thin, 2-cm thick laminar crust. Below the hardpan horizon, carbonate concentrations gradually decrease to clast-coating textures. Calcretes form progressively and a wide range of carbonate phases occur within a single horizon, being the laminar crust the final stage of evolution within a mature pedogenic calcrete deposit, and, therefore, the carbonate within it postdates all the cement phases within the profile. The location of the latest cement phase of the calcrete deposit has been estimated by microscopic observations (to establish their suitability for dating) together with a detailed sedimentological analysis of the calcrete profile in the field. The laminar crust consists of less than 1 mm thick laminae characterized by the alternation of layers of micrite and layers of micrite with ooids, detrital grains and clays indicating environmental conditions in which sedimentation rates were low and episodic. By using radiometric

  14. Certain questions of the acclimatization of construction workers to the conditions of a subtropical climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Babayev, A.

    1979-01-01

    The period of active acclimatization was determined for construction workers coming into a subtropical climate. Changes were observed in metabolic processes, oxygen needs, pulse rate, arterial pressure, body and skin temperature, body weight, water consumption and loss, and the comfort zone of heat sensitivity. It was concluded that acclimatization is facilitated if introduction to the hot climate occurs in the mild cool season, rather than the summer. This also prevents heat prostration and improves the development of adaptive mechanisms.

  15. Prediction of soil and ground water contamination with fungicides of different classes according to soil and climate conditions in Ukrain and other European countries.

    PubMed

    Vavrinevych, O; Antonenko, A; Omelchuk, S; Korshun, M; Bardov, V

    2015-05-01

    It was established that most of tested pesticides are moderately and low persistent in soil and climatic conditions of Ukraine, but more stable in Western and Northern Europe countries due to peculiarities of their climate type and soil characteristics. In addition, it was determined that all studied fungicides pertain to non- and low mobile compound (except moderately mobile pyrimethanil). Recommendations on application of studied fungicides in soil and climatic conditions of Ukraine and other European countries were given.

  16. Catchment scale modelling of changes in pesticide leaching under present and future climate conditions. Demonstrated for two cases in Denmark

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Keur, P.; Henriksen, H.; Sonnenborg, T.; van Roosmalen, L.; Rosenbom, A. E.; Olesen, J. E.; Kjaer, J.; Jørgensen, L. N.; Christensen, O. B.

    2011-12-01

    A catchment scale model MACRO-MIKE SHE is applied for simulating changes in pesticide concentrations to the aquatic environment. The MACRO model is used to model the effect of changes in climate and pesticide management on pesticide leaching from the unsaturated zone and simulated percolation as well as solute flow is propagated to the MIKE SHE model. The intensity based bias correction method for converting from Regional Climate Modelling data to hydrological input data is the most appropriate method as it best reflects changes in rainfall intensity, and thus also in intensity for MACRO simulated percolation and solute flow. Results show that increased percolation simulated by the MACRO model and propagated to the MIKE SHE model nearly all ends up in increased drainage to the river. Further, pesticide solute entering the saturated zone (SZ) is mainly leaving SZ via drainage (85-94%), base flow (3.8-11.3%) and overland flow (0-3.1 %). Mean concentrations in groundwater (SZ) increase by 30-99% for one type of herbicide under future climatic conditions, whereas mean concentrations decrease for two other types by app. 93 and 91 % respectively. Future climatic conditions lead to higher concentrations in surface water for the first type of herbicides, but to decreased concentrations for the another type of herbicide and insecticide. It is overall concluded that an integrated catchment scale modeling approach is essential for pesticide fate simulation taking account of all possible hydrologic pathways.

  17. Seasonal variability of hydro-physical conditions in Faxinal system subtropical climate in southern Brazil.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antoneli, Valdemir; Thomaz, Edivaldo; Berdnaz, João

    2015-04-01

    , and 46.1 cm / h in Native Forest. The infiltration in the secondary forest in January was of 32.3 cm / h (29.9% higher than in August). The pasture indicated infiltration of 12.8 cm / h (32.9% lower) and 49.2 cm / h native forest (6.3% higher). Soil compaction in August was of 2.9 kgf / cm2 in the secondary forest, 3.7 kgf / cm2 in the pasture, and 1.4 kgf / cm2 in the Native Forest. In January, compression was of 2.1 in Secondary Forest (27.6% less than in August), 4.0 kgf / cm2 in the pasture (7.5% higher) and 1.3 kgf / cm2 in the native Forest (7.1% lower). These variations may be associated to the climatic conditions which cause some frost in winter promoting greater mobilization of animals looking for food in secondary forest areas due to reduced pasture. The springs from the pasture in summer enhances the time animals stay in the pasture areas. The influence of animals on hydrogeomorphic conditions in faxinal areas was evident, especially when comparing the data from the two areas with the ones indicated by the Native Forest.

  18. Severe loss of suitable climatic conditions for marsupial species in Brazil: challenges and opportunities for conservation.

    PubMed

    Loyola, Rafael D; Lemes, Priscila; Faleiro, Frederico V; Trindade-Filho, Joaquim; Machado, Ricardo B

    2012-01-01

    A wide range of evidences indicate climate change as one the greatest threats to biodiversity in the 21st century. The impacts of these changes, which may have already resulted in several recent species extinction, are species-specific and produce shifts in species phenology, ecological interactions, and geographical distributions. Here we used cutting-edge methods of species distribution models combining thousands of model projections to generate a complete and comprehensive ensemble of forecasts that shows the likely impacts of climate change in the distribution of all 55 marsupial species that occur in Brazil. Consensus projections forecasted range shifts that culminate with high species richness in the southeast of Brazil, both for the current time and for 2050. Most species had a significant range contraction and lost climate space. Turnover rates were relatively high, but vary across the country. We also mapped sites retaining climatic suitability. They can be found in all Brazilian biomes, especially in the pampas region, in the southern part of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, in the north of the Cerrado and Caatinga, and in the northwest of the Amazon. Our results provide a general overview on the likely effects of global climate change on the distribution of marsupials in the country as well as in the patterns of species richness and turnover found in regional marsupial assemblages.

  19. Severe Loss of Suitable Climatic Conditions for Marsupial Species in Brazil: Challenges and Opportunities for Conservation

    PubMed Central

    Loyola, Rafael D.; Lemes, Priscila; Faleiro, Frederico V.; Trindade-Filho, Joaquim; Machado, Ricardo B.

    2012-01-01

    A wide range of evidences indicate climate change as one the greatest threats to biodiversity in the 21st century. The impacts of these changes, which may have already resulted in several recent species extinction, are species-specific and produce shifts in species phenology, ecological interactions, and geographical distributions. Here we used cutting-edge methods of species distribution models combining thousands of model projections to generate a complete and comprehensive ensemble of forecasts that shows the likely impacts of climate change in the distribution of all 55 marsupial species that occur in Brazil. Consensus projections forecasted range shifts that culminate with high species richness in the southeast of Brazil, both for the current time and for 2050. Most species had a significant range contraction and lost climate space. Turnover rates were relatively high, but vary across the country. We also mapped sites retaining climatic suitability. They can be found in all Brazilian biomes, especially in the pampas region, in the southern part of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, in the north of the Cerrado and Caatinga, and in the northwest of the Amazon. Our results provide a general overview on the likely effects of global climate change on the distribution of marsupials in the country as well as in the patterns of species richness and turnover found in regional marsupial assemblages. PMID:23029452

  20. Computations on frost damage to Scots pine under climatic warming in boreal conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Kellomaeki, S.; Haenninen, H.; Kolstroem, M.

    1995-02-01

    To investigate the risk of frost damage to Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in northern regions under climatic warming, a submodel for such damage to trees was included in a forest ecosystem model of the gap type. An annual growth multiplier describing the effects of frost was calculated with the help of simulated daily frost hardiness and daily minimum temperature. The annual growth multiplier was used in the main ecosystem model when simulating the development of a tree stand using a time step of one year. Simulations of the growth and development of Scots pine stands in southern Finland (61{degrees} N) under an elevating temperature indicated that climatic warming could increase the risk of frost damage due to premature onset of growth during warm spells in the late winter and early spring. Risk of frost damage implies uncertainty in yield expectations from boreal forest ecosystems in the event of climatic warming. 38 refs., 9 figs., 4 tabs.

  1. [Assessment of epidemic manifestations of the West Nile fever in the Volgograd region depending on the climatic conditions].

    PubMed

    Safronov, V A; Smolenskij, V Ju; Smeljanskij, V P; Savchenko, S T; Razdorskij, A S; Toporkov, V P

    2014-01-01

    Results of the analysis of the increase in the incidence of epidemic of the West Nile fever and climate conditions in the Volgograd region were presented. Certain seasonal periods and threshold values of temperature and humidity statistically associated with the epidemic rise were identified. The discussion of the probable mechanisms of indirect effects of atmospheric heat on the elements of the epidemic process was carried out.

  2. Characteristic of blocking events over Siberia for the present and future climate conditions, and the implications for the regional climate in South China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheung, H.; Zhou, W.

    2010-12-01

    Blocking activity over Siberia is a crucial factor for initiating and maintaining severe cold events in East Asia, but limited studies have provided a detailed analysis on the impact of its changing characteristics on the regional climate, especially in South China. By using 60-year NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis Datasets (1950/51-2009/10), where a winter season is defined as the 151/152 day period from Nov 1 to Mar 31, distinct characteristics of the blocking events and their downstream impacts for the present climate conditions can be assessed thoroughly. It is found that the blocking events persisting east of the Ural Mountains are generally followed by a cold air outbreak sweeping across various parts in East Asia. Specifically, the intense blocking events usually have large extension and they potentially result in persistent cold weather within the region. On the other hand, the blocking events west of the Ural Mountains are found to exert an impact only if it is of long duration and high intensity. The cold air pathways may be dependent on the geographic location of the blocking anticyclone. The active blocking season over the Urals is probably associated with more intense cold events extending southward and eastward to a great extent. On the contrary, the cold events in the winters of high blocking activity east and west of the Urals are often confined to the northern region. The preferred blocking location may be related to the wavetrain signal propagating eastward from the North Atlantic Ocean. Long-term variability of blocking activities shows a remarkable decreasing and weakening trend. This is perhaps reflected by a similar trend of the cold events in East Asia. Energetic and dynamical factors that are favorable and unfavorable for a specific blocking character will be explored. The explanation is accompanied with the simulation results of future climate conditions using the IPCC AR4 model outputs. The analysis is particularly valuable for enhancing the

  3. Climatic controls on biophysical interactions in the Black Sea under present day conditions and a potential future (A1B) climate scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cannaby, Heather; Fach, Bettina A.; Arkin, Sinan S.; Salihoglu, Baris

    2015-01-01

    A dynamical downscaling approach has been applied to investigate climatic controls on biophysical interactions and lower trophic level dynamics in the Black Sea. Simulations were performed under present day conditions (1980-1999) and a potential future (2080-2099) climate scenario, based on the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario. Simulations project a 3.7 °C increase in SST, a 25% increase in the stability of the seasonal thermocline and a 37 day increase in the duration of seasonal stratification. Increased winter temperatures inhibited the formation of Cold Intermediate Layer (CIL) waters resulting in near complete erosion of the CIL, with implications for the ventilation of intermediate water masses and the subduction of riverine nutrients. A 4% increase in nitrate availability within the upper 30 m of the water column reflected an increase in the retention time of river water within the surface mixed-layer. Changes in thermohaline structure, combined with a 27% reduction in positive wind stress curl, forced a distinct change in the structure of the basin-scale circulation. The predominantly cyclonic circulation characteristic of contemporary conditions was reversed within the southern and eastern regions of the basin, where under A1B climatic conditions, anticyclonic circulation prevailed. The change in circulation structure significantly altered the horizontal advection and dispersion of high nutrient river waters originating on the NW self. Net primary production increased by 5% on average, with much spatial variability in the response, linked to advective processes. Phytoplankton biomass also increased by 5% and the higher nutrient environment of the future scenario caused a shift in species composition in favour of larger phytoplankton. No significant change in zooplankton biomass was projected. These results constitute one of many possible future scenarios for the Black Sea, being dependent on the modelling

  4. Interactions of the surface heat and moisture transfer from the human body under varying climatic conditions and walking speeds.

    PubMed

    Qian, Xiaoming; Fan, Jintu

    2006-11-01

    The surface heat and moisture transfer from the human body are normally characterized by the thermal insulation and moisture vapor resistance, which are important parameters in environmental engineering. In the past, due to the limitation of measurement technology, simultaneous measurement of these two parameters was not possible and hence there is a lack of clear understanding on the interaction of surface heat and moisture transfer. In this paper, through the experimental measurements on a newly developed sweating/non-sweating fabric manikin (named WALTER) under varying climatic conditions and "walking" speeds, we show that the surface thermal insulation is little affected by moisture transfer. The surface moisture vapor resistances measured under isothermal conditions tend to be greater than those measured under non-isothermal conditions, especially when the wind velocity is less than 2.0m/s. The Lewis Relation holds under non-isothermal conditions, but should be corrected under isothermal condition when the wind velocity is small.

  5. Response and adaptation of grapevine cultivars to hydrological conditions forced by a changing climate in a complex landscape

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Lorenzi, Francesca; Bonfante, Antonello; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Monaco, Eugenia; De Mascellis, Roberto; Manna, Piero; Menenti, Massimo

    2014-05-01

    requirements were determined. To assess cultivars adaptability, hydrological requirements were evaluated against hydrological indicators. A probabilistic assessment of adaptability was performed, and the inaccuracy of estimated hydrological requirements was accounted for by the error of estimate and its distribution. Maps of cultivars potential distribution, i.e. locations where each cultivar is expected to be compatible with climate, were derived and possible options for adaptation to climate change were defined. The 2021 - 2050 climate scenario was characterized by higher temperatures throughout the year and by a significant decrease in precipitation during spring and autumn. The results have shown the relevant variability of soils water regime and its effects on cultivars adaptability. In the future climate scenario, a hydrological indicator (i.e. relative evapotranspiration deficit - RETD), averaged over the growing season, showed an average increase of 5-8 %, and more pronounced increases occurred in the phenological phases of berry formation and ripening. At the locations where soil hydrological conditions were favourable (like the ancient terraces), hydrological indicators were quite similar in both climate scenarios and the adaptability of the cultivars was high both in the reference and future climate case. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008) Keywords: climate change, Vitis vinifera L., simulation model, yield response functions, potential cultivation area.

  6. A natural resource condition assessment for Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks: Appendix 22: climatic change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Das, Adrian J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.

    2013-01-01

    30-year time periods -- the Independence station, with a relatively continuous temperature record starting in 1925 -- shows a modest warming, not a cooling, between 1925-1940 and 1971-2000, further casting doubt on the Kings Canyon cooling shown in Figs. 6 and 11 of Appendix 1. If funds become available, it will be useful to more formally analyze potential PRISM biases in long-term SEKI climatic trends. Until then, the analyses of individual weather station records presented here (effectively an analysis of source data that PRISM uses) are meant to provide a robust summary of climatic changes in SEKI.

  7. Sensitivity of global river discharges under Holocene and future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Renssen, H.; Ward, P. J.; de Moel, H.; Odada, E.; Bouwer, L. M.; Goosse, H.

    2006-10-01

    A comparative analysis of global river basins shows that some river discharges are more sensitive to future climate change for the coming century than to natural climate variability over the last 9000 years. In these basins (Ganges, Mekong, Volta, Congo, Amazon, Murray-Darling, Rhine, Oder, Yukon) future discharges increase by 6-61%. These changes are of similar magnitude to changes over the last 9000 years. Some rivers (Nile, Syr Darya) experienced strong reductions in discharge over the last 9000 years (17-56%), but show much smaller responses to future warming. The simulation results for the last 9000 years are validated with independent proxy data.

  8. Migration, Neighborhoods, and Networks: Approaches to Understanding How Urban Environmental Conditions Affect Syndemic Adverse Health Outcomes Among Gay, Bisexual and Other Men Who Have Sex with Men

    PubMed Central

    Egan, James E.; Kurtz, Steven P.; Latkin, Carl; Chen, Minxing; Tobin, Karin; Yang, Cui; Koblin, Beryl A.

    2011-01-01

    Adopting socioecological, intersectionality, and lifecourse theoretical frameworks may enhance our understanding of the production of syndemic adverse health outcomes among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (MSM). From this perspective, we present preliminary data from three related studies that suggest ways in which social contexts may influence the health of MSM. The first study, using cross-sectional data, looked at migration of MSM to the gay resort area of South Florida, and found that amount of time lived in the area was associated with risk behaviors and HIV infection. The second study, using qualitative interviews, observed complex interactions between neighborhood-level social environments and individual-level racial and sexual identity among MSM in New York City. The third study, using egocentric network analysis with a sample of African American MSM in Baltimore, found that sexual partners were more likely to be found through face-to-face means than the Internet. They also observed that those who co-resided with a sex partner had larger networks of people to depend on for social and financial support, but had the same size sexual networks as those who did not live with a partner. Overall, these findings suggest the need for further investigation into the role of macro-level social forces on the emotional, behavioral, and physical health of urban MSM. PMID:21369730

  9. Vegetation productivity responds to sub-annual climate conditions across semiarid biomes

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    In the Southwestern United States (SW), the current prolonged warm drought is similar to the predicted future climate change scenarios for the region. This study aimed to determine patterns in vegetation response to the early 21st century drought across multiple biomes. We hypothesized that differen...

  10. Statistical modelling of grapevine yield in the Port Wine region under present and future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, João A.; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Karremann, Melanie K.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2011-03-01

    The impact of projected climate change on wine production was analysed for the Demarcated Region of Douro, Portugal. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) was developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations were identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle. These atmospheric factors control grapevine yield in the region, with the GYM explaining 50.4% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Anomalously high March rainfall (during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development) favours yield, as well as anomalously high temperatures and low precipitation amounts in May and June (May: flowering and June: berry development). The GYM was applied to a regional climate model output, which was shown to realistically reproduce the GYM predictors. Finally, using ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, projections for GYM-derived yield in the Douro Region, and for the whole of the twenty-first century, were analysed. A slight upward trend in yield is projected to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the twenty-first century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above current values. While this estimate is based on meteorological parameters alone, changes due to elevated CO2 may further enhance this effect. In spite of the associated uncertainties, it can be stated that projected climate change may significantly benefit wine yield in the Douro Valley.

  11. Relating El Nino-Southern oscillation climate conditions to irrigation strategies for increased cotton yield

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The global-scale El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) of sea surface temperature that causes monsoonal rain in India also affects precipitation in North America.The ENSO phases and related rain expectations have been used to limit climate uncertainties when producing wheat for grazing and grain. Insi...

  12. A simple framework for relating variations in runoff to variations in climatic conditions and catchment properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roderick, Michael L.; Farquhar, Graham D.

    2011-12-01

    We use the Budyko framework to calculate catchment-scale evapotranspiration (E) and runoff (Q) as a function of two climatic factors, precipitation (P) and evaporative demand (Eo = 0.75 times the pan evaporation rate), and a third parameter that encodes the catchment properties (n) and modifies how P is partitioned between E and Q. This simple theory accurately predicted the long-term evapotranspiration (E) and runoff (Q) for the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in southeast Australia. We extend the theory by developing a simple and novel analytical expression for the effects on E and Q of small perturbations in P, Eo, and n. The theory predicts that a 10% change in P, with all else constant, would result in a 26% change in Q in the MDB. Future climate scenarios (2070-2099) derived using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 climate model output highlight the diversity of projections for P (±30%) with a correspondingly large range in projections for Q (±80%) in the MDB. We conclude with a qualitative description about the impact of changes in catchment properties on water availability and focus on the interaction between vegetation change, increasing atmospheric [CO2], and fire frequency. We conclude that the modern version of the Budyko framework is a useful tool for making simple and transparent estimates of changes in water availability.

  13. Control of the multimillennial wildfire size in boreal North America by spring climatic conditions.

    PubMed

    Ali, Adam A; Blarquez, Olivier; Girardin, Martin P; Hély, Christelle; Tinquaut, Fabien; El Guellab, Ahmed; Valsecchi, Verushka; Terrier, Aurélie; Bremond, Laurent; Genries, Aurélie; Gauthier, Sylvie; Bergeron, Yves

    2012-12-18

    Wildfire activity in North American boreal forests increased during the last decades of the 20th century, partly owing to ongoing human-caused climatic changes. How these changes affect regional fire regimes (annual area burned, seasonality, and number, size, and severity of fires) remains uncertain as data available to explore fire-climate-vegetation interactions have limited temporal depth. Here we present a Holocene reconstruction of fire regime, combining lacustrine charcoal analyses with past drought and fire-season length simulations to elucidate the mechanisms linking long-term fire regime and climatic changes. We decomposed fire regime into fire frequency (FF) and biomass burned (BB) and recombined these into a new index to assess fire size (FS) fluctuations. Results indicated that an earlier termination of the fire season, due to decreasing summer radiative insolation and increasing precipitation over the last 7.0 ky, induced a sharp decrease in FF and BB ca. 3.0 kyBP toward the present. In contrast, a progressive increase of FS was recorded, which is most likely related to a gradual increase in temperatures during the spring fire season. Continuing climatic warming could lead to a change in the fire regime toward larger spring wildfires in eastern boreal North America.

  14. Assessing Students' Learning about Fundamental Concepts of Climate Change under Two Different Conditions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Porter, Dianna; Weaver, Andrew J.; Raptis, Helen

    2012-01-01

    Students from three different British Columbia grade six classes were followed through two weeks of instruction on climate change. Pre, post, and follow-up surveys were used to determine the differences in knowledge gained and retained by students that received direct instruction from their science teacher, and by those who received equivalent…

  15. Selecting Populations for Non-Analogous Climate Conditions Using Universal Response Functions: The Case of Douglas-Fir in Central Europe.

    PubMed

    Chakraborty, Debojyoti; Wang, Tongli; Andre, Konrad; Konnert, Monika; Lexer, Manfred J; Matulla, Christoph; Schueler, Silvio

    2015-01-01

    Identifying populations within tree species potentially adapted to future climatic conditions is an important requirement for reforestation and assisted migration programmes. Such populations can be identified either by empirical response functions based on correlations of quantitative traits with climate variables or by climate envelope models that compare the climate of seed sources and potential growing areas. In the present study, we analyzed the intraspecific variation in climate growth response of Douglas-fir planted within the non-analogous climate conditions of Central and continental Europe. With data from 50 common garden trials, we developed Universal Response Functions (URF) for tree height and mean basal area and compared the growth performance of the selected best performing populations with that of populations identified through a climate envelope approach. Climate variables of the trial location were found to be stronger predictors of growth performance than climate variables of the population origin. Although the precipitation regime of the population sources varied strongly none of the precipitation related climate variables of population origin was found to be significant within the models. Overall, the URFs explained more than 88% of variation in growth performance. Populations identified by the URF models originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and show significantly higher growth performance than populations identified by the climate envelope approach under both current and climate change scenarios. The URFs predict decreasing growth performance at low and middle elevations of the case study area, but increasing growth performance on high elevation sites. Our analysis suggests that population recommendations based on empirical approaches should be preferred and population selections by climate envelope models without considering climatic constrains of growth performance should be carefully appraised before

  16. Basin-scale simulation of current and potential climate changed hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin, United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Christiansen, Daniel E.; Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.

    2014-01-01

    The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) is the largest public investment in the Great Lakes in two decades. A task force of 11 Federal agencies developed an action plan to implement the initiative. The U.S. Department of the Interior was one of the 11 agencies that entered into an interagency agreement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as part of the GLRI to complete scientific projects throughout the Great Lakes basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, a bureau within the Department of the Interior, is involved in the GLRI to provide scientific support to management decisions as well as measure progress of the Great Lakes basin restoration efforts. This report presents basin-scale simulated current and forecast climatic and hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin. The forecasts were obtained by constructing and calibrating a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model of the Lake Michigan Basin; the PRMS model was calibrated using the parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis (PEST) software suite. The calibrated model was used to evaluate potential responses to climate change by using four simulated carbon emission scenarios from eight general circulation models released by the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3. Statistically downscaled datasets of these scenarios were used to project hydrologic response for the Lake Michigan Basin. In general, most of the observation sites in the Lake Michigan Basin indicated slight increases in annual streamflow in response to future climate change scenarios. Monthly streamflows indicated a general shift from the current (2014) winter-storage/snowmelt-pulse system to a system with a more equally distributed hydrograph throughout the year. Simulated soil moisture within the basin illustrates that conditions within the basin are also expected to change on a monthly timescale. One effect of increasing air temperature as a result of the changing

  17. Vaccine Adverse Events

    MedlinePlus

    ... Vaccines, Blood & Biologics Animal & Veterinary Cosmetics Tobacco Products Vaccines, Blood & Biologics Home Vaccines, Blood & Biologics Safety & Availability ( ... Center for Biologics Evaluation & Research Vaccine Adverse Events Vaccine Adverse Events Share Tweet Linkedin Pin it More ...

  18. How do climate and human impact affect Sphagnum peatlands under oceanic-continental climatic conditions? 2000 years of fire and hydrological history of a bog in Northern Poland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marcisz, Katarzyna; Tinner, Willy; Colombaroli, Daniele; Kołaczek, Piotr; Słowiński, Michał; Fiałkiewicz-Kozieł, Barbara; Lamentowicz, Mariusz

    2014-05-01

    Climate change affects many natural processes and the same applies to human impact For instance climate change and anthropogenic activities may cause increased fire activity or change peatland dynamics. Currently it is still unknown how Sphagnum peatlands in the oceanic-continental transition zone of Poland may respond to combined effects of heat waves, drought and fire. The aim of the study was to reconstruct the last 2000 years palaeohydrology and fire history at Linje bog in Northern Poland. The main task was to determine the drivers of fire episodes, particularly to identify climatic and anthropogenic forcing. A two-meter peat core was extracted and subsampled with a high resolution. Micro- and macroscopic charcoal analyses were applied to determine past fire activity and the results compared with palaeohydrological reconstructions based on testate amoeba analysis. Palynological human indicators were used to reconstruct human activity. A depth-age model including 20 14C dates was constructed to calculate peat accumulation rates and charcoal influx. We hypothesised that: 1) fire frequency in Northern Poland was determined by climatic conditions (combination of low precipitation and heat waves), as reflected in peatland water table, and that 2) past fire episodes in the last millennium were intensified by human activity. Furthermore climate may have influenced human activity over harvest success and the carrying capacity. Our study shows that fire was important for the studied ecosystem, however, its frequency has increased in the last millennium in concomitance with land use activities. Landscape humanization and vegetation opening were followed by a peatland drying during the Little Ice Age (from ca. AD 1380). Similarly to other palaeoecological studies from Poland, Linje peatland possessed an unstable hydrology during the Little Ice Age. Increased fire episodes appeared shortly before the Little Ice Age and most severe fires were present in the time when

  19. Working with invalid boundary conditions: lessons from the field for communicating about climate change with public audiences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gunther, A.

    2015-12-01

    There is an ongoing need to communicate with public audiences about climate science, current and projected impacts, the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and the requirement to prepare for changes that are likely unavoidable. It is essential that scientists are engaged and active in this effort. Scientists can be more effective communicators about climate change to non-scientific audiences if we recognize that some of the normal "boundary conditions" under which we operate do not need to apply. From how we are trained to how we think about our audience, there are some specific skills and practices that allow us to be more effective communicators. The author will review concepts for making our communication more effective based upon his experience from over 60 presentations about climate change to public audiences. These include expressing how your knowledge makes you feel, anticipating (and accepting) questions unconstrained by physics, respecting beliefs and values while separating them from evidence, and using the history of climate science to provide a compelling narrative. Proper attention to presentation structure (particularly an opening statement), speaking techniques for audience engagement, and effective use of presentation software are also important.

  20. Under what conditions do climate-driven sex ratios enhance versus diminish population persistence?

    PubMed Central

    Boyle, Maria; Hone, Jim; Schwanz, Lisa E; Georges, Arthur

    2014-01-01

    For many species of reptile, crucial demographic parameters such as embryonic survival and individual sex (male or female) depend on ambient temperature during incubation. While much has been made of the role of climate on offspring sex ratios in species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), the impact of variable sex ratio on populations is likely to depend on how limiting male numbers are to female fecundity in female-biased populations, and whether a climatic effect on embryonic survival overwhelms or interacts with sex ratio. To examine the sensitivity of populations to these interacting factors, we developed a generalized model to explore the effects of embryonic survival, hatchling sex ratio, and the interaction between these, on population size and persistence while varying the levels of male limitation. Populations with TSD reached a greater maximum number of females compared to populations with GSD, although this was often associated with a narrower range of persistence. When survival depended on temperature, TSD populations persisted over a greater range of temperatures than GSD populations. This benefit of TSD was greatly reduced by even modest male limitation, indicating very strong importance of this largely unmeasured biologic factor. Finally, when males were not limiting, a steep relationship between sex ratio and temperature favoured population persistence across a wider range of climates compared to the shallower relationships. The opposite was true when males were limiting – shallow relationships between sex ratio and temperature allowed greater persistence. The results highlight that, if we are to predict the response of populations with TSD to climate change, it is imperative to 1) accurately quantify the extent to which male abundance limits female fecundity, and 2) measure how sex ratios and peak survival coincide over climate. PMID:25512848

  1. Performance of gas turbines in Russia under the changing climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klimenko, V. V.; Klimenko, A. V.; Kasilova, E. V.; Rekunenko, E. S.; Tereshin, A. G.

    2016-10-01

    The impact of the expected climatic changes on the performance of gas turbine units (GTU) as part of the power industry and gas pipeline network in Russia is considered. Long-term estimates of changes in the average annual air temperature throughout the country are made based on the authors' model. The calculations using the efficiency value of gas turbine units as a function of the ambient air temperature show that climatic changes will significantly deteriorate the operational efficiency of gas-turbine equipment in practically all of Russia's regions. Based on publicly available statistical data, we assessed the installed capacity of gas-turbine power stations (including combined-cycle power plants) and gas-turbine drive of gas pipeline network. Three development scenarios have been considered for gas turbine power in the national electric power industry, differing in the rates of new facilities' commissioning. Integrated estimates have been made of the increase in gas consumption in Russia's gas pipeline network and power industry resulting from climatic changes by 2030 and 2050. It is shown that the total increase in the annual gas consumption associated with a reduction in the efficiency of gas turbine units due to climate warming by 2030 could reach approximately 130000 tce (of which approximately 90000 tce in the gas pipeline network and 40000 tce in the electric power industry) and more than 170000 tce (120000 and 50000 tce, respectively) by 2050. Should more optimistic scenarios be implemented for the development of the electric power industry, this effect will increase 1.5-2.0 times by 2050. Despite high absolute values, the increase in GTU fuel expenditures due to higher ambient temperatures resulting from climate change in Russia will only amount to a fraction of a percent of the total gas consumption and will be two orders of magnitude lower than the savings in space heating.

  2. Under what conditions do climate-driven sex ratios enhance versus diminish population persistence?

    PubMed

    Boyle, Maria; Hone, Jim; Schwanz, Lisa E; Georges, Arthur

    2014-12-01

    For many species of reptile, crucial demographic parameters such as embryonic survival and individual sex (male or female) depend on ambient temperature during incubation. While much has been made of the role of climate on offspring sex ratios in species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), the impact of variable sex ratio on populations is likely to depend on how limiting male numbers are to female fecundity in female-biased populations, and whether a climatic effect on embryonic survival overwhelms or interacts with sex ratio. To examine the sensitivity of populations to these interacting factors, we developed a generalized model to explore the effects of embryonic survival, hatchling sex ratio, and the interaction between these, on population size and persistence while varying the levels of male limitation. Populations with TSD reached a greater maximum number of females compared to populations with GSD, although this was often associated with a narrower range of persistence. When survival depended on temperature, TSD populations persisted over a greater range of temperatures than GSD populations. This benefit of TSD was greatly reduced by even modest male limitation, indicating very strong importance of this largely unmeasured biologic factor. Finally, when males were not limiting, a steep relationship between sex ratio and temperature favoured population persistence across a wider range of climates compared to the shallower relationships. The opposite was true when males were limiting - shallow relationships between sex ratio and temperature allowed greater persistence. The results highlight that, if we are to predict the response of populations with TSD to climate change, it is imperative to 1) accurately quantify the extent to which male abundance limits female fecundity, and 2) measure how sex ratios and peak survival coincide over climate.

  3. Modelling climate change impacts on viticultural yield, phenology and stress conditions in Europe.

    PubMed

    Fraga, Helder; García de Cortázar Atauri, Iñaki; Malheiro, Aureliano C; Santos, João A

    2016-11-01

    Viticulture is a key socio-economic sector in Europe. Owing to the strong sensitivity of grapevines to atmospheric factors, climate change may represent an important challenge for this sector. This study analyses viticultural suitability, yield, phenology, and water and nitrogen stress indices in Europe, for present climates (1980-2005) and future (2041-2070) climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). The STICS crop model is coupled with climate, soil and terrain databases, also taking into account CO2 physiological effects, and simulations are validated against observational data sets. A clear agreement between simulated and observed phenology, leaf area index, yield and water and nitrogen stress indices, including the spatial differences throughout Europe, is shown. The projected changes highlight an extension of the climatic suitability for grapevines up to 55°N, which may represent the emergence of new winemaking regions. Despite strong regional heterogeneity, mean phenological timings (budburst, flowering, veraison and harvest) are projected to undergo significant advancements (e.g. budburst/harvest can be >1 month earlier), with implications also in the corresponding phenophase intervals. Enhanced dryness throughout Europe is also projected, with severe water stress over several regions in southern regions (e.g. southern Iberia and Italy), locally reducing yield and leaf area. Increased atmospheric CO2 partially offsets dryness effects, promoting yield and leaf area index increases in central/northern Europe. Future biomass changes may lead to modifications in nitrogen demands, with higher stress in northern/central Europe and weaker stress in southern Europe. These findings are critical decision support systems for stakeholders from the European winemaking sector.

  4. Projecting supply and demand of hydrologic ecosystem services under future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiang, Li-Chi; Huang, Tao; Lee, Tsung-Yu

    2014-05-01

    Ecosystems provide essential goods and services, such as food, clean water, water purification, soil conservation and cultural services for human being. In a watershed, these water-related ecosystem goods and services can directly or indirectly benefit both local people and downstream beneficiaries through a reservoir. Water quality and quantity in a reservoir are of importance for agricultural, industrial and domestic uses. Under the impacts of climate and land use changes, both ecosystem service supply and demand will be affected by changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, urbanization and agricultural activities. However, the linkage between ecosystem service provisioning (ESP) and ecosystem service beneficiary (ESB), and scales of supply and demand of ecosystem services are not clear yet. Therefore, to investigate water-related ecosystem service supply under climate and land use change, we took the Xindian river watershed (303 km2) as a case study, where the Feitsui Reservoir provides hydro-power and daily domestic water use of 3,450,000 m3 for 3.46 million people in Taipei, Taiwan. We integrated a hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) and a land use change model (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects, CLUE-s) with future climate change scenarios derived from General Circulation Models (GCMs), to assess the changes in ecosystem service supply and demand at different hydrologic scales. The results will provide useful information for decision-making on future land use management and climate change adaptation strategies in the watersheds. Keywords: climate change, land use change, ecosystem service, watershed, scale

  5. Rapid and persistent change of microbial community and gross N turnover under experimentally simulated climate change conditions in alpine grassland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Changhui; Chen, Zhe; Unteregelsbacher, Sebastian; Gschwendtner, Silvia; Schloter, Michael; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Dannenmann, Michael

    2013-04-01

    Alpine grasslands of Central Europe are exposed to strong warming and to altered precipitation patterns, suggesting that ecosystem nitrogen (N) cycling may be vulnerable to future climatic conditions. In order to investigate the response of soil microbial community and N transformations to predicted climate change conditions, we conducted an ecosystem manipulation experiment following the "space for time" approach in the TERENO (Terrestrial Environmental Observatories) pre-alpine grassland observatory. For this purpose, we dislocated 200 mini-lysimeters containing intact plant-soil systems down an altitudinal gradient from 860m to 550m above sea level, with corresponding control transfers within the high altitude site. After an equilibration period of 2.5 years, a full annual cycle of gross rates of N turnover as well as microbial biomass- and -community dynamics was monitored based on 15 sampling dates in two soil layers. For the monitored year, simulation of climate change via lysimeter transfer had increased mean annual soil temperature in 5 cm depth on average by 2.4 °C, but on the other hand promoted soil frost in winter due to reduced snow cover. Soil moisture was decreased on average by 20%. Gross N turnover and the abundance of N cycle genes in soil were characterized by pronounced seasonal dynamics, with both summer and winter representing key periods for the annual sum of N turnover. The abundance of ammonia oxidizing archae (AOA) genes exceeded the abundance of ammonia oxidizing bacterial (AOB) genes by approximately three orders of magnitude. Climate change simulation strongly increased the abundance of both AOB and AOA gene copies in soil, consistent with an increase of annual gross nitrification rates by 41%. Gross N mineralization was even increased by 141% in the climate change treatment. The abundance of AOA genes in soil explained 80% of the variability of gross nitrification rates over the full annual course. These results provide strong

  6. Reverse Engineering Adverse Outcome Pathways

    SciTech Connect

    Perkins, Edward; Chipman, J.K.; Edwards, Stephen; Habib, Tanwir; Falciani, Francesco; Taylor, Ronald C.; Van Aggelen, Graham; Vulpe, Chris; Antczak, Philipp; Loguinov, Alexandre

    2011-01-30

    The toxicological effects of many stressors are mediated through unknown, or poorly characterized, mechanisms of action. We describe the application of reverse engineering complex interaction networks from high dimensional omics data (gene, protein, metabolic, signaling) to characterize adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) for chemicals that disrupt the hypothalamus-pituitary-gonadal endocrine axis in fathead minnows. Gene expression changes in fathead minnow ovaries in response to 7 different chemicals, over different times, doses, and in vivo versus in vitro conditions were captured in a large data set of 868 arrays. We examined potential AOPs of the antiandrogen flutamide using two mutual information theory methods, ARACNE and CLR to infer gene regulatory networks and potential adverse outcome pathways. Representative networks from these studies were used to predict a network path from stressor to adverse outcome as a candidate AOP. The relationship of individual chemicals to an adverse outcome can be determined by following perturbations through the network in response to chemical treatment leading to the nodes associated with the adverse outcome. Identification of candidate pathways allows for formation of testable hypotheses about key biologic processes, biomarkers or alternative endpoints, which could be used to monitor an adverse outcome pathway. Finally, we identify the unique challenges facing the application of this approach in ecotoxicology, and attempt to provide a road map for the utilization of these tools. Key Words: mechanism of action, toxicology, microarray, network inference

  7. Renewable energy to develop adaptation strategies to the climate change conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Servadio, Pieranna; Bergonzoli, Simone

    2013-04-01

    between the corn rows. During the irrigation tests for the autoclave pressure values already mentioned, we obtained an 80 l min-1 flow rate value with a 28 m head value measured by pressure gauge upstream from the electric pump. In these conditions and on sunny days a 26 m3 water body was obtained. From the agronomic point of view, the crop developed more than usual, did not undergo parasite attack nor lodging or cutting off of the steams during the biological cycle, and the development of weeds was limited. The grain production amounted to 10.5 t ha-1, 12.4 % higher with respect to the rain-irrigated parcels. Crop yield results showed better performance of the drip irrigation plant with respect to the sprinkler system. The photovoltaic system met design expectations and showed good reliability during the years of testing. The long-term tests showed that the photovoltaic system is capable of supplying a farm. The problem linked with combustion of fossil fuel will improve this system of energy supply to agricultural farms located in areas not reached by the power network both in Europe and in the sub Saharan countries where many plans are developing in last year pursuing also the scope of a drastic reduction of GHG fluxes. Acknowledgements This work was carried out under the auspices of the special project "Sceneries of adaptation of the Italian agriculture to the climatic changes" (AGROSCENARI) of the Agricultural Research Council, and Italian Ministry of the Agricultural and Forestry Politics.

  8. Prevalence rates of health and welfare conditions in broiler chickens change with weather in a temperate climate

    PubMed Central

    Edwards, Phil; Hajat, Shakoor

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact assessment and adaptation research in agriculture has focused primarily on crop production, with less known about the potential impacts on livestock. We investigated how the prevalence of health and welfare conditions in broiler (meat) chickens changes with weather (temperature, rainfall, air frost) in a temperate climate. Cases of 16 conditions were recorded at approved slaughterhouses in Great Britain. National prevalence rates and distribution mapping were based on data from more than 2.4 billion individuals, collected between January 2011 and December 2013. Analysis of temporal distribution and associations with national weather were based on monthly data from more than 6.8 billion individuals, collected between January 2003 and December 2013. Ascites, bruising/fractures, hepatitis and abnormal colour/fever were most common, at annual average rates of 29.95, 28.00, 23.76 and 22.29 per 10 000, respectively. Ascites and abnormal colour/fever demonstrated clear annual cycles, with higher rates in winter than in summer. Ascites prevalence correlated strongly with maximum temperature at 0 and −1 month lags. Abnormal colour/fever correlated strongly with temperature at 0 lag. Maximum temperatures of approximately 8°C and approximately 19°C marked the turning points of curve in a U-shaped relationship with mortality during transportation and lairage. Future climate change research on broilers should focus on preslaughter mortality. PMID:27703686

  9. A coupled Bayesian and fault tree methodology to assess future groundwater conditions in light of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, J. J.; Du, M.; McBean, E. A.; Wang, H.; Wang, J.

    2014-08-01

    Maintaining acceptable groundwater levels, particularly in arid areas, while protecting ecosystems, are key measures against desertification. Due to complicated hydrological processes and their inherent uncertainties, investigations of groundwater recharge conditions are challenging, particularly in arid areas under climate changing conditions. To assist planning to protect against desertification, a fault tree methodology, in conjunction with fuzzy logic and Bayesian data mining, are applied to Minqin Oasis, a highly vulnerable regime in northern China. A set of risk factors is employed within the fault tree framework, with fuzzy logic translating qualitative risk data into probabilities. Bayesian data mining is used to quantify the contribution of each risk factor to the final aggregated risk. The implications of both historical and future climate trends are employed for temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) to assess water table changes under various future scenarios. The findings indicate that water table levels will continue to drop at the rate of 0.6 m yr-1 in the future when climatic effects alone are considered, if agricultural and industrial production capacity remain at 2004 levels.

  10. Short-Term Relationship between Hip Fracture and Weather Conditions in Two Spanish Health Areas with Different Climates

    PubMed Central

    Tenías, José María; Estarlich, Marisa; Crespo, Eusebio; Román-Ortiz, Carmen; Arias-Arias, Angel; Ballester, Ferran

    2015-01-01

    Objective. To evaluate differences in the short-term relationship between weather conditions and the incidence of hip fracture in people aged 65 and over among two regions of Spain. Methods. Hip fracture incidence was calculated for the years 2000–2008 for residents of Health Area 14 in Valencian Community (Mediterranean climate) and the “Mancha Centro” Health Area in Castilla-La Mancha (inland climate), Spain. The relationship between hip fracture incidence and weather was analyzed with a case-crossover design and explored in subgroups defined by sex, age, and fracture type. Results. In the inland area, a positive and significant tendency for hip fracture incidence was observed (annual increase: 1.5%) whereas in the Mediterranean area a seasonal increase of 9% was noted in autumn and winter with respect to spring. Weather conditions, especially wind, were significantly associated with hip fracture incidence: days with more frequent windy periods and/or a greater wind velocity were associated with an increase in hip fracture incidence of 51% in the Mediterranean area and 44% in the inland area. Conclusions. Hip fracture incidence exhibits seasonal changes that differ between the Mediterranean and inland areas. The short-term relationship with climate, although similar in both areas, may partly explain these seasonal changes. PMID:25759722

  11. [Climate change and hygienic assessment of weather conditions in Omsk and the Omsk Region].

    PubMed

    Gudinova, Zh V; Akimova, I S; Klochikhina, A V

    2010-01-01

    The paper deals with trends in climate change in the Omsk Region: the increases in average annual air temperatures and rainfall, which are attended by the higher number of abnormal weather events, as shown by the data of the Omsk Regional Board, Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring. There is information on weather severity in 2008: there was mild weather in spring and severe weather in winter, in January in particular. A survey of physicians has revealed that medical workers are concerned about climate problems and global warming and ascertained weather events mostly affecting the population's health. People worry most frequently about a drastic temperature drop or rise (as high as 71%), atmospheric pressure change (53%), and "when it is too hot in summer (47%).

  12. An evaluation of applying existing bioretention sizing methods to cold climates with snow storage conditions.

    PubMed

    Muthanna, T M; Viklander, M; Thorolfsson, S T

    2007-01-01

    Eight of the current sizing and design methods proposed for bioretention facilities were evaluated for rainfall runoff and snow storage volumes for a costal cold climate in Trondheim, Norway. The RECARGA bioretention infiltration model was used to compare the performance of the methods using 30 months of observed data from a pilot scale bioretention box. The surface areas, total ponding time, number and duration of overflow events, and snow storage volumes were compared. It was found that even in a costal cold climate with several intermittent melt cycles die snow storage requirements were an important design parameter, and if more than 25% of the total snow volume should stored this became the deciding design parameter.

  13. Organizational Climate of Staff Working Conditions and Safety -- An Integrative Model

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-05-01

    subconstructs: (1) manageable workload, (2) resources and training, (3) rewards (defined as monetary compensation such as salary and bonuses), (4) autonomy...standardized beta coefficients. *Models adjusted for age , race, and/or gender. † P ≤ 0.01, ‡ P ≤ 0.001 to the realm of climate, such as labor...Models adjusted for age , gender, and/or race. † Intention to leave was a dichotomous variable in this study. Therefore, the results from this

  14. Natural emissions under future climate condition and their effects on surface ozone in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Min; Shu, Lei; Wang, Ti-jian; Liu, Qian; Gao, Da; Li, Shu; Zhuang, Bing-liang; Han, Yong; Li, Meng-meng; Chen, Pu-long

    2017-02-01

    The natural emissions of ozone precursors (NOx and VOCs) are sensitive to climate. Future climate change can impact O3 concentrations by perturbing these emissions. To better estimate the variation of natural emissions under different climate conditions and understand its effect on surface O3, we model the present and the future air quality over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region by running different simulations with the aid of the WRF-CALGRID model system that contains a natural emission module. Firstly, we estimate the natural emissions at present and in IPCC A1B scenario. The results show that biogenic VOC emission and soil NOx emission over YRD in 2008 is 657 Gg C and 19.1 Gg N, respectively. According to climate change, these emissions in 2050 will increase by 25.5% and 11.5%, respectively. Secondly, the effects of future natural emissions and meteorology on surface O3 are investigated and compared. It is found that the variations in meteorological fields can significantly alter the spatial distribution of O3 over YRD, with the increases of 5-15 ppb in the north and the decreases of -5 to -15 ppb in the south. However, only approximately 20% of the surface O3 increases caused by climate change can be attributed to the natural emissions, with the highest increment up to 2.4 ppb. Finally, Ra (the ratio of impacts from NOx and VOCs on O3 formation) and H2O2/HNO3 (the ratio between the concentrations of H2O2 and HNO3) are applied to study the O3 sensitivity in YRD. The results show that the transition value of H2O2/HNO3 will turn from 0.3 to 0.5 in 2008 to 0.4-0.8 in 2050. O3 formation in the YRD region will be insensitive to VOCs under future climate condition, implying more NOx need to be cut down. Our findings can help us understand O3 variation trend and put forward the reasonable and effective pollution control policies in these famous polluted areas.

  15. Effects of local factors and climate on permafrost conditions and distribution in Beiluhe basin, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China.

    PubMed

    Yin, Guoan; Niu, Fujun; Lin, Zhanju; Luo, Jing; Liu, Minghao

    2017-03-01

    Beiluhe basin is underlain by warm and ice-rich permafrost, and covered by vegetation and soils characteristic of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. A field monitoring network was established to investigate permafrost conditions and to assess potential impacts of local factors and climate change. This paper describes the spatial variations in permafrost conditions from instrumented boreholes, controlling environmental factors, and recent thermal evolution of permafrost in the basin. The study area was divided into 10 ecotypes using satellite imagery based classification. The field investigations and cluster analysis of ground temperatures indicated that permafrost underlies most of the ground in swamp meadow, undisturbed alpine meadow, degrading alpine meadow, and desert alpine grassland, but is absent in other cover types. Permafrost-ecotope relations examined over a 2-year (2014-2016) period indicated that: (i) ground surface temperatures varied largely among ecotopes; (ii) annual mean ground temperatures ranged from -1.5 to 0°C in permafrost, indicating sensitive permafrost conditions; (iii) active-layer thicknesses ranged from 1.4m to 3.4m; (iv) ground ice content at the top of permafrost is high, but the active-layer soil is relatively dry. Long-term climate warming has driven thermal changes to permafrost, but ground surface characteristics and soil moisture content strongly influence the ground thermal state. These factors control local-scale spatial variations in permafrost conditions. The warm permafrost in the basin is commonly in thermal disequilibrium, and is sensitive to future climate change. Active-layer thicknesses have increased by at least 42cm and the mean annual ground temperatures have increased by up to 0.2°C in the past 10years over the basin. A permafrost distribution map was produced based on ecotypes, suggesting that permafrost underlies 64% of the study region.

  16. Annual adult survival of Least Auklets (Aves, Alcidae) varies with large-scale climatic conditions of the North Pacific Ocean.

    PubMed

    Jones, Ian L; Hunter, Fiona M; Robertson, Gregory J

    2002-09-01

    We evaluated whether annual adult survival of Least Auklets (Aethia pusilla), a small planktivorous seabird, covaried with large-scale oceanographic conditions in the North Pacific ocean during 1990-2000. Adult Least Auklets (n=358 total) were captured near their nest sites, marked with plastic color bands, and survival estimates were based on color band resightings at their breeding colony. Survival estimates and relationships between survival and three large-scale indices of climatic conditions that correlate with oceanography: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDO), Aleutian Low Pressure Index (ALPI), and North Pacific Index (NPI) were evaluated using program MARK. The best models included: (1) two groups of birds, defined by ease of resighting, that differed in recapture rate (p) but not survival rate (φ); and (2) models that allowed for survival rates to differ in the year immediately after first capture from all subsequent years (structurally an age-model). Both of these model structures effectively explained (i.e. removed) sources of heterogeneity in the data set. For Least Auklet survival, the best fitting model was a two-age model incorporating the covariate NPI (average value for the period auklets were at sea, August - April), [φ(age1, age2×NPI), p(g)]. The annual survival rate varied from 0.747±0.075 SE in 1992-1993 to 0.953±0.052 in 1991-1992 (based on the model [φ(age1, age2×t), p(g)]) and averaged 0.873±0.037 over the study period. Least Auklet annual survival covaried with continuous variation in large-scale climatic conditions. Our results point to oceanographic conditions that relate to climate change as crucial to the status of auklet populations, notwithstanding conservation measures taken to control introduced predators, oil spills, human disturbance and other anthropogenic sources of mortality.

  17. Modelling of mineral dust for interglacial and glacial climate conditions with a focus on Antarctica

    SciTech Connect

    Sudarchikova, Natalia; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Timmreck, C.; O'Donnell, D.; Schurgers, G.; Sein, Dmitry; Zhang, Kai

    2015-05-19

    The mineral dust cycle responds to climate variations and plays an important role in the climate system by affecting the radiative balance of the atmosphere and modifying biogeochemistry. Polar ice cores provide unique information about deposition of aeolian dust particles transported over long distances. These cores are a palaeoclimate proxy archive of climate variability thousands of years ago. The current study is a first attempt to simulate past interglacial dust cycles with a global aerosol–climate model ECHAM5-HAM. The results are used to explain the dust deposition changes in Antarctica in terms of quantitative contribution of different processes, such as emission, atmospheric transport and precipitation, which will help to interpret palaeodata from Antarctic ice cores. The investigated periods include four interglacial time slices: the pre-industrial control (CTRL), mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP; hereafter referred to as \\"6 kyr\\"), last glacial inception (115 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"115 kyr\\") and Eemian (126 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"126 kyr\\"). One glacial time interval, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"21 kyr\\"), was simulated as well to be a reference test for the model. Results suggest an increase in mineral dust deposition globally, and in Antarctica, in the past interglacial periods relative to the pre-industrial CTRL simulation. Approximately two-thirds of the increase in the mid-Holocene and Eemian is attributed to enhanced Southern Hemisphere dust emissions. Slightly strengthened transport efficiency causes the remaining one-third of the increase in dust deposition. The moderate change in dust deposition in Antarctica in the last glacial inception period is caused by the slightly stronger poleward atmospheric transport efficiency compared to the pre-industrial. Maximum dust deposition in Antarctica was simulated for the glacial period. LGM dust deposition in Antarctica is substantially increased due to 2.6 times higher

  18. Assessing risks from drought and heat stress in productive grasslands under present and future climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calanca, Pierluigi; Mosimann, Eric; Meisser, Marco; Deléglise, Claire

    2014-05-01

    Grasslands cover the majority of the world's agricultural area, provide the feedstock for animal production, contribute to the economy of farms, and deliver a variety of ecological and societal services. Assessing responses of grassland ecosystems to climate change, in particular climate-related risks, is therefore an important step toward identifying adaptation options necessary to secure grassland functioning and productivity. Of particular concern are risks in relation to drought and extreme temperatures, on the one hand because grasslands are very sensitive to water stress, on the other hand also because global warming is expected to increase the occurrence and intensity of these events in many agricultural areas of the world. In this contribution we review findings of ongoing experimental and modelling activities that aim at examining the implications of climate extremes and climate change for grassland vegetation dynamics and herbage productivity. Data collected at the Jura foot in western Switzerland indicate that water scarcity and associated anomalous temperatures slowed plant development in relation to both the summer drought of 2003 as well as the spring drought of 2011, with decline in annual yields of up to 40%. Further effects of drought found from the analysis of recent field trials explicitly designed to study the effects of different water management regimes are changes in the functional composition and nutritive value of grasslands. Similar responses are disclosed by simulations with a process based grassland ecosystem model that was originally developed for the simulation of mixed grass/clover swards. Simulations driven with historical weather records from the Swiss Plateau suggest that drought and extreme temperature could represent one of the main reasons for the observed yield variability in productive systems. Simulations with climate change scenarios further reveal important changes in ecosystem dynamics for the current century. The results

  19. Modelling of mineral dust for interglacial and glacial climate conditions with a focus on Antarctica

    DOE PAGES

    Sudarchikova, Natalia; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Timmreck, C.; ...

    2015-05-19

    The mineral dust cycle responds to climate variations and plays an important role in the climate system by affecting the radiative balance of the atmosphere and modifying biogeochemistry. Polar ice cores provide unique information about deposition of aeolian dust particles transported over long distances. These cores are a palaeoclimate proxy archive of climate variability thousands of years ago. The current study is a first attempt to simulate past interglacial dust cycles with a global aerosol–climate model ECHAM5-HAM. The results are used to explain the dust deposition changes in Antarctica in terms of quantitative contribution of different processes, such as emission,more » atmospheric transport and precipitation, which will help to interpret palaeodata from Antarctic ice cores. The investigated periods include four interglacial time slices: the pre-industrial control (CTRL), mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP; hereafter referred to as \\"6 kyr\\"), last glacial inception (115 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"115 kyr\\") and Eemian (126 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"126 kyr\\"). One glacial time interval, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"21 kyr\\"), was simulated as well to be a reference test for the model. Results suggest an increase in mineral dust deposition globally, and in Antarctica, in the past interglacial periods relative to the pre-industrial CTRL simulation. Approximately two-thirds of the increase in the mid-Holocene and Eemian is attributed to enhanced Southern Hemisphere dust emissions. Slightly strengthened transport efficiency causes the remaining one-third of the increase in dust deposition. The moderate change in dust deposition in Antarctica in the last glacial inception period is caused by the slightly stronger poleward atmospheric transport efficiency compared to the pre-industrial. Maximum dust deposition in Antarctica was simulated for the glacial period. LGM dust deposition in Antarctica is substantially increased due to 2.6 times

  20. Evidence for a Progressive Change of Interglacial Climate Conditions Forced by Different Ocean-Atmosphere Circulation Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauch, H. A.; Kandiano, E. S.; Helmke, J. P.

    2005-12-01

    Most paleoclimatic interpretations directly hinge on observations drawn from studying present day processes. Although considerable progress has been made in understanding the overall glacial-interglacial climate system, still little is known in detail about climate forcing and feedback mechanisms of the interglacial past. In order to better estimate the 'natural range' of climatically important mechanisms, it seems crucial to make detailed comparison of the present interglaciation (Holocene) with previous warm periods of the late Quaternary. As the impact of climate change is usually strongest in more extreme environments, the temperature-sensitive northern high latitudes are a suitable region for such comparative studies. There is ample evidence from terrestrial and marine archives that the major warm periods of the Quaternary differed significantly from each other. For instance, the last interglacial period (Eemian/125 ka) had climatic conditions indicating slightly higher temperatures at mid-northern latitudes than during the Holocene hypsithermal. Comparing Holocene with Eemian records using marine sediment cores from the polar-subpolar North Atlantic suggests two different circulation styles. During most of the Holocene surface water circulation was dominated by a polar-directed transport of relatively warm surface water from the Atlantic which entered the eastern Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait and across the western Eurasian shelf seas. This type of circulation forced oceanographic fronts into a meridional alignment, a situation which still exists today. For Eemian times, however, paleoproxies indicate a much steeper north-to-south temperature gradient than for the Holocene, suggesting a zonal configuration of the main water mass fronts. This situation led to a reduced water mass exchange between the Arctic Ocean and the Nordic seas. Reconstructions of surface conditions during stage 11 (Holsteinian/405 ka) indicate, despite overall boundary conditions were

  1. Wear of surface-engineered metal-on-metal bearings for hip prostheses under adverse conditions with the head loading on the rim of the cup.

    PubMed

    Leslie, Ian; Williams, Sophie; Isaac, Graham; Hatto, Peter; Ingham, Eileen; Fisher, John

    2013-04-01

    Clinical studies have found high wear rates, elevated ion levels and high revision rates of large-diameter metal-on-metal surface replacement bearings in some patients, which have been associated with edge loading of the head on the rim of the cup. We have simulated increased wear and ion levels in metal-on-metal bearings in vitro by introducing variations in translational and rotational positioning of the components, which reproduces stripe wear on the femoral head, cup rim wear and clinically relevant large as well as small wear particles. There is interest in technologies such as surface engineering, which might reduce metal wear and the release of wear particles and ions. Reduced wear with surface-engineered surface replacements compared to metal-on-metal controls has been reported under standard walking conditions with correctly aligned and concentric components. In this in vitro study, the wear of chromium nitride surface-engineered metal-on-metal bearings under conditions of microseparation associated with translational and rotational malpositioning of the components was investigated and the results were compared with a previously reported study of metal-on-metal bearings under the same conditions. Simulations were conducted using our unique hip simulation microseparation methodologies, which reproduce accelerated wear in metal-on-metal bearings and have previously been clinically validated with ceramic-on-ceramic bearings. Four of the six surface-engineered bearings had evidence of head contact on the rim of the cup, which produced stripe wear on the femoral head. Four of the six surface-engineered bearings (two without stripe and two with stripe wear) had lower wear than the previously reported high wearing metal-on-metal bearings. At 2 million cycles, two of the surface-engineered bearings had substantially increased wear rates, four times higher than the high wear rates previously reported for metal-on-metal bearings under the same conditions. There was

  2. Sources of skill in near-term climate prediction: generating initial conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carrassi, A.; Guemas, V.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Volpi, D.; Asif, M.

    2016-12-01

    This study investigates the role of different areas of the ocean in driving the climate variability. The impact of both global and regional ocean nudging on the climate reconstruction obtained with the climate model EC-Earth v2.3 is studied over the period 1960-2012. Ocean temperature and salinity below the mixed layer are relaxed toward the monthly averages from the ORAS4 ocean reanalysis. Three coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations are considered: (1) global ocean nudging, (2) nudging in the global upper ocean (above 2000 m) and (3) nudging in the mid-latitude ocean and at full ocean depth. The experimental setup allows for identifying local and remote effects of nudging on different geographical areas. The validation is based on the correlation coefficients and the root mean square error skill score and concerns the following variables: ocean heat content, ocean barotropic streamfunction, intensity of the ocean gyres and indexes of convection, sea ice extension, near-surface air and sea surface temperature, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation 3.4 index. The results can be summarized as follows: (1) the positive impact on the reconstruction of the ocean state is found almost everywhere and for most of the analyzed variables, including unconstrained variables and/or regions, (2) deep-ocean nudging shows low impact on sea-surface temperature but a significant impact on the ocean circulation, (3) mid-latitude ocean nudging shows systematically the worst performance pointing at the importance of the poles and tropics in reconstructing the global ocean.

  3. Modelling the Impact of Human Actors on Groundwater Resources under Conditions of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barthel, R.; Reichenau, T. G.; Krimly, T.; Dabbert, S.; Schneider, K.; Mauser, W.; Hennicker, R.

    2012-12-01

    Water resources, activities of human actors and climate change are related in many different and complex ways because of the existence of and strong interactions between various influencing factors, including those that are natural-environmental and socio-economic. The GLOWA-Danube research cooperation has developed the integrated simulation system DANUBIA to simulate water-related influences of global change in different spatial and temporal contexts. DANUBIA is a modular system comprised of 17 dynamically-coupled, process-based model components and a framework which controls the interaction of these components with respect to space and time. This contribution describes approaches and capabilities of DANUBIA with regard to the simulation of global change effects on human decisions in water related fields with a focus on agriculture and groundwater. In agriculture, market prices and legislation can be equally or even more important than water availability in determining farmers' behavior and thus in determining the agricultural impact on water resources quantity and quality. The DANUBIA simulation framework and the associated DeepActor-framework for simulation of decision-making by human actors are presented together with the model components which are most relevant to the interactions between agriculture and groundwater. The approach for developing combination climate and socio-economic scenarios is explained. Exemplary scenario results are shown for the Upper Danube Catchment in Southern Germany. References Barthel, R., Janisch, S., N. Schwarz, A. Trifkovic, D. Nickel, C. Schulz, W. Mauser (2008): An integrated modelling framework for simulating regional-scale actor responses to global change in the water domain. Environmental Modelling and Software, 23, 1095-1121 (doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.02.004) Barthel, R., Reichenau T., Krimly, T., Dabbert, S., Schneider, K., Mauser, W. (2012) Integrated modeling of climate change impacts on agriculture and groundwater

  4. Changes on the coastline of buenaventura bay (colombian pacific) and its relationship with the climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo; Ricaurte-Villota, Constanza; Andres Ordoñez, Silvio

    2016-04-01

    Some authors point out that the variability of a coastal system is the response of physical factors (climate, waves, currents, wind, etc.) or combination of some of them, for example long-term variations in the relationship between climate and supply of sedimentary material. For Colombian Pacific coast it has been said that the regimen of meso-tidal is one of the agents that contribute to changes in the morphology of the littoral zone. Between 2012-2015 was conducted a research in the mouth of Buenaventura Bay (Colombia Pacific coast), using two stations: Soldado point (southern point of the bay) and Bazan point (the northern point of the bay), for those stations the digital elevation model (DEM) was performed using a DGPS with technology GNSS the recent evolution of the coastline and changes in volume of sand from beaches for two scalar approaches were determined: annual and intra-annual. The use of ArcGIS 3D Analyst in the DEMs allowed to calculate the cubic area between the raised surfaces each month. Changes in the coastline were made using Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) an ARCGIS extension. We used zonal and meridional components of the wind data near the coast from WindSat, rainfall and sea level anomaly data from the database AVISO (Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic), and sea level pressure (SLP) from NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/ National Center for Atmospheric Research), in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Finally, climatic variables were correlated with the rates of coastal erosion and changes in sand volume of the beaches, because wind and precipitation are some of the factors in sediment transport. The study showed erosion rates with negative values in 2014 and 2015 that represent loss of land, the intra-annual variability in September and October were the highest loss of land, this coincides with the values of the highest tides of the

  5. Reduction of uncertainty for estimating runoff with the NRCS CN model by the adaptation to local climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Durán-Barroso, Pablo; González, Javier; Valdés, Juan B.

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall-runoff quantification is one of the most important tasks in both engineering and watershed management as it allows to identify, forecast and explain watershed response. For that purpose, the Natural Resources Conservation Service Curve Number method (NRCS CN) is the conceptual lumped model more recognized in the field of rainfall-runoff estimation. Furthermore, there is still an ongoing discussion about the procedure to determine the portion of rainfall retained in the watershed before runoff is generated, called as initial abstractions. This concept is computed as a ratio (λ) of the soil potential maximum retention S of the watershed. Initially, this ratio was assumed to be 0.2, but later it has been proposed to be modified to 0.05. However, the actual procedures to convert NRCS CN model parameters obtained under a different hypothesis about λ do not incorporate any adaptation of climatic conditions of each watershed. By this reason, we propose a new simple method for computing model parameters which is adapted to local conditions taking into account regional patterns of climate conditions. After checking the goodness of this procedure against the actual ones in 34 different watersheds located in Ohio and Texas (United States), we concluded that this novel methodology represents the most accurate and efficient alternative to refit the initial abstraction ratio.

  6. Satellite-based characterization of climatic conditions before large-scale general flowering events in Peninsular Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Azmy, Muna Maryam; Hashim, Mazlan; Numata, Shinya; Hosaka, Tetsuro; Noor, Nur Supardi Md; Fletcher, Christine

    2016-08-26

    General flowering (GF) is a unique phenomenon wherein, at irregular intervals, taxonomically diverse trees in Southeast Asian dipterocarp forests synchronize their reproduction at the community level. Triggers of GF, including drought and low minimum temperatures a few months previously has been limitedly observed across large regional scales due to lack of meteorological stations. Here, we aim to identify the climatic conditions that trigger large-scale GF in Peninsular Malaysia using satellite sensors, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), to evaluate the climatic conditions of focal forests. We observed antecedent drought, low temperature and high photosynthetic radiation conditions before large-scale GF events, suggesting that large-scale GF events could be triggered by these factors. In contrast, we found higher-magnitude GF in forests where lower precipitation preceded large-scale GF events. GF magnitude was also negatively influenced by land surface temperature (LST) for a large-scale GF event. Therefore, we suggest that spatial extent of drought may be related to that of GF forests, and that the spatial pattern of LST may be related to that of GF occurrence. With significant new findings and other results that were consistent with previous research we clarified complicated environmental correlates with the GF phenomenon.

  7. Satellite-based characterization of climatic conditions before large-scale general flowering events in Peninsular Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Azmy, Muna Maryam; Hashim, Mazlan; Numata, Shinya; Hosaka, Tetsuro; Noor, Nur Supardi Md.; Fletcher, Christine

    2016-08-01

    General flowering (GF) is a unique phenomenon wherein, at irregular intervals, taxonomically diverse trees in Southeast Asian dipterocarp forests synchronize their reproduction at the community level. Triggers of GF, including drought and low minimum temperatures a few months previously has been limitedly observed across large regional scales due to lack of meteorological stations. Here, we aim to identify the climatic conditions that trigger large-scale GF in Peninsular Malaysia using satellite sensors, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), to evaluate the climatic conditions of focal forests. We observed antecedent drought, low temperature and high photosynthetic radiation conditions before large-scale GF events, suggesting that large-scale GF events could be triggered by these factors. In contrast, we found higher-magnitude GF in forests where lower precipitation preceded large-scale GF events. GF magnitude was also negatively influenced by land surface temperature (LST) for a large-scale GF event. Therefore, we suggest that spatial extent of drought may be related to that of GF forests, and that the spatial pattern of LST may be related to that of GF occurrence. With significant new findings and other results that were consistent with previous research we clarified complicated environmental correlates with the GF phenomenon.

  8. A two-year field measurement of methane and nitrous oxide fluxes from rice paddies under contrasting climate conditions

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Huifeng; Zhou, Sheng; Fu, Zishi; Chen, Guifa; Zou, Guoyan; Song, Xiangfu

    2016-01-01

    The effects of three irrigation levels (traditional normal amount of irrigation [NA100%], 70%, and 30% of the normal amount [NA70% and NA30%]) and two rice varieties (Oryza sativa L. Huayou14 and Hanyou8) on CH4 and N2O emissions were investigated over two years under contrasting climate conditions (a ‘warm and dry’ season in 2013 and a normal season in 2014). Hanyou8 was developed as a drought-resistant variety. The mean seasonal air temperature in 2013 was 2.3 °C higher than in 2014, while the amount of precipitation from transplanting to the grain-filling stage in 2013 was only 36% of that in 2014. CH4 emission rose by 93–161%, but rice grain yield fell by 7–13% in 2013, compared to 2014 under the NA100% conditions. Surface standing water depths (SSWD) were higher in Hanyou8 than in Huayou14 due to the lower water demand by Hanyou8. A reduction in the amount of irrigation water applied can effectively reduce the CH4 emissions regardless of the rice variety and climate condition. However, less irrigation during the ‘warm and dry’ season greatly decreased Huayou14 grain yield, but had little impact on Hanyou8. In contrast, N2O emission depended more on fertilization and SSWD than on rice variety. PMID:27321231

  9. Satellite-based characterization of climatic conditions before large-scale general flowering events in Peninsular Malaysia

    PubMed Central

    Azmy, Muna Maryam; Hashim, Mazlan; Numata, Shinya; Hosaka, Tetsuro; Noor, Nur Supardi Md.; Fletcher, Christine

    2016-01-01

    General flowering (GF) is a unique phenomenon wherein, at irregular intervals, taxonomically diverse trees in Southeast Asian dipterocarp forests synchronize their reproduction at the community level. Triggers of GF, including drought and low minimum temperatures a few months previously has been limitedly observed across large regional scales due to lack of meteorological stations. Here, we aim to identify the climatic conditions that trigger large-scale GF in Peninsular Malaysia using satellite sensors, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), to evaluate the climatic conditions of focal forests. We observed antecedent drought, low temperature and high photosynthetic radiation conditions before large-scale GF events, suggesting that large-scale GF events could be triggered by these factors. In contrast, we found higher-magnitude GF in forests where lower precipitation preceded large-scale GF events. GF magnitude was also negatively influenced by land surface temperature (LST) for a large-scale GF event. Therefore, we suggest that spatial extent of drought may be related to that of GF forests, and that the spatial pattern of LST may be related to that of GF occurrence. With significant new findings and other results that were consistent with previous research we clarified complicated environmental correlates with the GF phenomenon. PMID:27561887

  10. A two-year field measurement of methane and nitrous oxide fluxes from rice paddies under contrasting climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Huifeng; Zhou, Sheng; Fu, Zishi; Chen, Guifa; Zou, Guoyan; Song, Xiangfu

    2016-06-01

    The effects of three irrigation levels (traditional normal amount of irrigation [NA100%], 70%, and 30% of the normal amount [NA70% and NA30%]) and two rice varieties (Oryza sativa L. Huayou14 and Hanyou8) on CH4 and N2O emissions were investigated over two years under contrasting climate conditions (a ‘warm and dry’ season in 2013 and a normal season in 2014). Hanyou8 was developed as a drought-resistant variety. The mean seasonal air temperature in 2013 was 2.3 °C higher than in 2014, while the amount of precipitation from transplanting to the grain-filling stage in 2013 was only 36% of that in 2014. CH4 emission rose by 93–161%, but rice grain yield fell by 7–13% in 2013, compared to 2014 under the NA100% conditions. Surface standing water depths (SSWD) were higher in Hanyou8 than in Huayou14 due to the lower water demand by Hanyou8. A reduction in the amount of irrigation water applied can effectively reduce the CH4 emissions regardless of the rice variety and climate condition. However, less irrigation during the ‘warm and dry’ season greatly decreased Huayou14 grain yield, but had little impact on Hanyou8. In contrast, N2O emission depended more on fertilization and SSWD than on rice variety.

  11. Adverse cutaneous drug reaction.

    PubMed

    Nayak, Surajit; Acharjya, Basanti

    2008-01-01

    In everyday clinical practice, almost all physicians come across many instances of suspected adverse cutaneous drug reactions (ACDR) in different forms. Although such cutaneous reactions are common, comprehensive information regarding their incidence, severity and ultimate health effects are often not available as many cases go unreported. It is also a fact that in the present world, almost everyday a new drug enters market; therefore, a chance of a new drug reaction manifesting somewhere in some form in any corner of world is unknown or unreported. Although many a times, presentation is too trivial and benign, the early identification of the condition and identifying the culprit drug and omit it at earliest holds the keystone in management and prevention of a more severe drug rash. Therefore, not only the dermatologists, but all practicing physicians should be familiar with these conditions to diagnose them early and to be prepared to handle them adequately. However, we all know it is most challenging and practically difficult when patient is on multiple medicines because of myriad clinical symptoms, poorly understood multiple mechanisms of drug-host interaction, relative paucity of laboratory testing that is available for any definitive and confirmatory drug-specific testing. Therefore, in practice, the diagnosis of ACDR is purely based on clinical judgment. In this discussion, we will be primarily focusing on pathomechanism and approach to reach a diagnosis, which is the vital pillar to manage any case of ACDR.

  12. Projected wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific under the influence of two CMIP5 climate scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Erikson, Li H.; Hegermiller, Christie; Barnard, Patrick; Ruggiero, Peter; van Ormondt, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Hindcast and 21st century winds, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), were used to drive global- and regional-scale spectral wind-wave generation models in the Pacific Ocean Basin to assess future wave conditions along the margins of the North American west coast and Hawaiian Islands. Three-hourly winds simulated by four separate GCMs were used to generate an ensemble of wave conditions for a recent historical time-period (1976–2005) and projections for the mid and latter parts of the 21st century under two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), as defined by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) experiments. Comparisons of results from historical simulations with wave buoy and ERA-Interim wave reanalysis data indicate acceptable model performance of wave heights, periods, and directions, giving credence to generating projections. Mean and extreme wave heights are projected to decrease along much of the North American west coast. Extreme wave heights are projected to decrease south of ∼50°N and increase to the north, whereas extreme wave periods are projected to mostly increase. Incident wave directions associated with extreme wave heights are projected to rotate clockwise at the eastern end of the Aleutian Islands and counterclockwise offshore of Southern California. Local spatial patterns of the changing wave climate are similar under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, but stronger magnitudes of change are projected under RCP 8.5. Findings of this study are similar to previous work using CMIP3 GCMs that indicates decreasing mean and extreme wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific, but differ from other studies with respect to magnitude and local patterns of change. This study contributes toward a larger ensemble of global and regional climate projections needed to better assess uncertainty of potential future wave climate change, and provides model boundary conditions for assessing the impacts of

  13. Projected wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific under the influence of two CMIP5 climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erikson, L. H.; Hegermiller, C. A.; Barnard, P. L.; Ruggiero, P.; van Ormondt, M.

    2015-12-01

    Hindcast and 21st century winds, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), were used to drive global- and regional-scale spectral wind-wave generation models in the Pacific Ocean Basin to assess future wave conditions along the margins of the North American west coast and Hawaiian Islands. Three-hourly winds simulated by four separate GCMs were used to generate an ensemble of wave conditions for a recent historical time-period (1976-2005) and projections for the mid and latter parts of the 21st century under two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), as defined by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) experiments. Comparisons of results from historical simulations with wave buoy and ERA-Interim wave reanalysis data indicate acceptable model performance of wave heights, periods, and directions, giving credence to generating projections. Mean and extreme wave heights are projected to decrease along much of the North American west coast. Extreme wave heights are projected to decrease south of ∼50°N and increase to the north, whereas extreme wave periods are projected to mostly increase. Incident wave directions associated with extreme wave heights are projected to rotate clockwise at the eastern end of the Aleutian Islands and counterclockwise offshore of Southern California. Local spatial patterns of the changing wave climate are similar under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, but stronger magnitudes of change are projected under RCP 8.5. Findings of this study are similar to previous work using CMIP3 GCMs that indicates decreasing mean and extreme wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific, but differ from other studies with respect to magnitude and local patterns of change. This study contributes toward a larger ensemble of global and regional climate projections needed to better assess uncertainty of potential future wave climate change, and provides model boundary conditions for assessing the impacts of

  14. Inkbottle Pore-Method: Prediction of hygroscopic water content in hardened cement paste at variable climatic conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Espinosa, Rosa Maria . E-mail: espinosa@tuhh.de; Franke, Lutz

    2006-10-15

    The aim of this work is the development of a practicable method for the reliable prediction of the equilibrium hygroscopic water content in hardened cement paste and cement mortars at changing climatic conditions. Sorption thermodynamics and multi-scale pore structure of hardened cement paste build the basis of the new computation procedure. Drying and chemical aging lead to a formation of inkbottle pores. Their influence on sorption behaviour will be considered in particular by including them into the pore model. Experimental data of adsorption, desorption and scanning-isotherms verify the new computation method, which has been called 'IBP-Method' (inkbottle pores)

  15. Estimating permafrost distribution in the maritime Southern Alps, New Zealand, based on climatic conditions at rock glacier sites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sattler, Katrin; Anderson, Brian; Mackintosh, Andrew; Norton, Kevin; de Róiste, Mairéad

    2016-02-01

    Alpine permafrost occurrence in maritime climates has received little attention, despite suggestions that permafrost may occur at lower elevations than in continental climates. To assess the spatial and altitudinal limits of permafrost in the maritime Southern Alps, we developed and tested a catchment-scale distributed permafrost estimate. We used logistic regression to identify the relationship between permafrost presence at 280 active and relict rock glacier sites and the independent variables a) mean annual air temperature and b) potential incoming solar radiation in snow free months. The statistical relationships were subsequently employed to calculate the spatially-distributed probability of permafrost occurrence, using a probability of ≥ 0.6 to delineate the potential permafrost extent. Our results suggest that topoclimatic conditions are favorable for permafrost occurrence in debris-mantled slopes above ~ 2000 m in the central Southern Alps and above ~ 2150 m in the more northern Kaikoura ranges. Considering the well-recognized latitudinal influence on global permafrost occurrences, these altitudinal limits are lower than the limits observed in other mountain regions. We argue that the Southern Alps' lower distribution limits may exemplify an oceanic influence on global permafrost distribution. Reduced ice-loss due to moderate maritime summer temperature extremes may facilitate the existence of permafrost at lower altitudes than in continental regions at similar latitude. Empirical permafrost distribution models derived in continental climates may consequently be of limited applicability in maritime settings.

  16. Sludge treatment and reuse considering different climates and varying other conditions--export-oriented research for developing and threshold countries.

    PubMed

    Bauerfeld, Katrin; Dockhorn, Thomas; Dichtl, Norbert

    2008-11-01

    Sewage sludge accumulating during biological wastewater treatment has to be treated appropriately to avoid impacts on the environment and risks to public health. Especially pathogen reduction is necessary when sludge is disposed or reused in such a way that human contact is possible. In industrialized countries various sludge treatment technologies are available, but these are often only approved under local conditions. When exporting these technologies and experiences to other countries, a number of factors have to be taken into account including climatic, sociocultural, political and financial aspects. This paper gives an overview of current knowledge regarding sewage sludge treatment in developing countries. Various sanitation projects are realized worldwide and experiences from these plants already in operation are summarized. Results of on going laboratory experiments in climatic chambers regarding aerobic and anaerobic stabilization as well as lime treatment are shown to define the best-practicable sludge treatment technology for a certain climate. Options for final reuse or disposal are presented depending on end-product quality.

  17. A Preliminary Evaluation of Season-ahead Flood Prediction Conditioned on Large-scale Climate Drivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip; Block, Paul

    2016-04-01

    Globally, flood disasters lead all natural hazards in terms of impacts on society, causing billions of dollars of damages each year. Typically, short-term forecasts emphasize immediate emergency actions, longer-range forecasts, on the order of months to seasons, however, can compliment short-term forecasts by focusing on disaster preparedness. In this study, the inter-annual variability of large-scale climate drivers (e.g. ENSO) is investigated to understand the prospects for skillful season-ahead flood prediction globally using PCR-GLOBWB modeled simulations. For example, global gridded correlations between discharge and Nino 3.4 are calculated, with notably strong correlations in the northwestern (-0.4~-0.6) and the southeastern (0.4~0.6) United States, and the Amazon river basin (-0.6~-0.8). Coupled interactions from multiple, simultaneous climate drivers are also evaluated. Skillful prediction has the potential to estimate season-ahead flood probabilities, flood extent, damages, and eventually integrate into early warning systems. This global approach is especially attractive for areas with limited observations and/or little capacity to develop early warning flood systems.

  18. Precipitation variability and response to changing climatic condition in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sang, Yan-Fang; Singh, Vijay P.; Gong, Tongliang; Xu, Kang; Sun, Fubao; Liu, Changming; Liu, Wenbin; Chen, Ruizhi

    2016-08-01

    Hydroclimatic process in the Yarlung Tsangpo River (YTR) basin, a sensitive area to climate change, is obviously changing during recent years, but there has limited understanding about it. In this study, we investigated the spatiotemporal variation of precipitation over last four decades in the basin and the impact thereon of the changing Indian summer monsoon at interannual and decadal time scales. All the precipitation series have similar scaling behavior, reflecting similar climatic regime throughout the basin. However, the effect of the Indian monsoon strengthens from the downstream to upstream, causing spatial variability in the seasonal distribution of precipitation, and on this basis, the YTR basin is roughly divided into three regions: east, middle, and west. Both the occurrence times and magnitude of precipitation extremes, ranging 25-50 mm/d, are exhibiting downward trends over the last four decades, which bodes well for water disaster controls in the basin. The Indian summer monsoon index, as an intensity indicator for the Indian summer monsoon, shows a positive relationship with the summer precipitation in the YTR basin. Periodic variability of the Indian monsoon determines the interannual nonstationary fluctuations of precipitation. Especially, the weakening effect of the Indian summer monsoon has caused an obvious decrease in precipitation over the rainy season after 1998. If the Indian summer monsoon keeps weakening, the precipitation would decrease and potentially water shortage would become more severe in the basin. Effective adaptation strategy should therefore be developed proactively to handle the unfavorable water situation, which is likely to occur in the future.

  19. Impact of snowmaking on alpine water resources management under present and climate change conditions.

    PubMed

    Vanham, D; Fleischhacker, E; Rauch, W

    2009-01-01

    Owing to less natural snow reliability as a result of climate change on the one hand, and the demand of higher standards by winter tourists on the other hand, the production of artificial snow in ski resorts has increased substantially during the last 20 years and is likely to increase further in future. Little research has been conducted on the impact of snowmaking as a water demand stakeholder on a regional water balance. In this paper, a regional water balance (water demand-water resources) is analysed for the greater Kitzbueheler Region in the Austrian Alps, for the current situation and a future climate change scenario (2 degrees C warming). For this temperature rise a significant reduction in natural snow cover duration and snow accumulation is predicted, an effect that increases with lower altitudes and differs between the winter months. Due to the shortening of the winter season, a change in seasonality of river flows and available water resources (ground and surface water) occurs. Both increase in winter, and decrease in spring. The water demand for improvement snowmaking increases, especially in the month of March. However, December proved to be the critical month due to the large amounts of water required for base snowmaking both now and in future. These results stress the necessity of reservoir storage for base snowmaking on a regional level. Water availability during other months but winter is sufficient to fill these reservoirs.

  20. Modeling Nitrogen Losses in Conventional and Advanced Soil-Based Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems under Current and Changing Climate Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Cooper, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    Most of the non-point source nitrogen (N) load in rural areas is attributed to onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS). Nitrogen compounds cause eutrophication, depleting the oxygen in marine ecosystems. OWTS rely on physical, chemical and biological soil processes to treat wastewater and these processes may be affected by climate change. We simulated the fate and transport of N in different types of OWTS drainfields, or soil treatment areas (STA) under current and changing climate scenarios, using 2D/3D HYDRUS software. Experimental data from a mesocosm-scale study, including soil moisture content, and total N, ammonium (NH4+) and nitrate (NO3-) concentrations, were used to calibrate the model. A water content-dependent function was used to compute the nitrification and denitrification rates. Three types of drainfields were simulated: (1) a pipe-and-stone (P&S), (2) advanced soil drainfields, pressurized shallow narrow drainfield (PSND) and (3) Geomat (GEO), a variation of SND. The model was calibrated with acceptable goodness-of-fit between the observed and measured values. Average root mean square error (RSME) ranged from 0.18 and 2.88 mg L-1 for NH4+ and 4.45 mg L-1 to 9.65 mg L-1 for NO3- in all drainfield types. The calibrated model was used to estimate N fluxes for both conventional and advanced STAs under current and changing climate conditions, i.e. increased soil temperature and higher water table. The model computed N losses from nitrification and denitrification differed little from measured losses in all STAs. The modeled N losses occurred mostly as NO3- in water outputs, accounting for more than 82% of N inputs in all drainfields. Losses as N2 were estimated to be 10.4% and 9.7% of total N input concentration for SND and Geo, respectively. The highest N2 losses, 17.6%, were estimated for P&S. Losses as N2 increased to 22%, 37% and 21% under changing climate conditions for Geo, PSND and P&S, respectively. These findings can provide practitioners

  1. A Simulation/Optimization approach to manage groundwater resources in the Gaza aquifer (Palestinian Territories) under climate change conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dentoni, Marta; Qahman, Khalid; Deidda, Roberto; Paniconi, Claudio; Lecca, Giuditta

    2013-04-01

    The Gaza aquifer is the main source of water for agricultural, domestic, and industrial uses in the Gaza Strip. The rapid increase on water demand due to continuous population growth has led to water scarcity and contamination by seawater intrusion (SWI). Furthermore, current projections of future climatic conditions (IPCC, 2007) point to potential decreases in available water, both inflows and outflows. A numerical assessment of SWI in the Gaza coastal aquifer under climate induced changes has been carried out by means of the CODESA-3D model of density-dependent variably saturated flow and salt transport in groundwaters. After integrating available data on climatology, geology, geomorphology, hydrology, hydrogeology, soil use, and groundwater exploitation relative to the period 1935-2010, the calibrated and validated model was used to simulate the response of the hydrological basin to actual and future scenarios of climate change obtained from different regional circulation models. The results clearly show that, if current pumping rates are maintained, seawater intrusion will worsen. To manage sustainable aquifer development under effective recharge operations and water quality constraints, a decision support system based on a simulation/optimization (S/O) approach was applied to the Gaza study site. The S/O approach is based on coupling the CODESA-3D model with the Carroll's Genetic Algorithm Driver. The optimization model incorporates two conflicting objectives using a penalty method: maximizing pumping rates from the aquifer wells while limiting the salinity of the water withdrawn. The resulting coastal aquifer management model was applied over a 30-year time period to identify the optimum spatial distribution of pumping rates at the control wells. The optimized solution provides for a general increase in water table levels and a decrease in the total extracted salt mass while keeping total abstraction rates relatively constant, with reference to non

  2. Mite allergens in relation to home conditions and sensitization of asthmatic children from three climatic regions.

    PubMed

    Munir, A K; Björkstén, B; Einarsson, R; Ekstrand-Tobin, A; Möller, C; Warner, A; Kjellman, N I

    1995-01-01

    We investigated the levels of mite (Der p I and Der f I) allergen in dust from bedrooms, living rooms, kitchens, and bathrooms from 130 homes of asthmatic children in three climatic zones of Sweden. Bedroom dust samples included the child's mattress, carpets, floors, and other plain surfaces. Living-room dust samples were taken from sofas and other furniture, carpets, floors, and other plain surfaces. The allergen levels were related to home characteristics, including absolute indoor humidity (AIH), relative humidity (RH), and air changes per hour (ach). Mite allergen was detected in 62% of the homes. Levels of Der p I varied between < 16 ng and 50 micrograms/g dust, and Der f I between < 16 ng and 73 micrograms/g dust. Because we have designed a composite type of dust collection in our study, the allergen levels found tend to average down the results. Mite allergen levels were higher in homes with dampness problems, in homes with a smoker, and in homes without a basement. Homes with high absolute humidity (> or = 7 g/kg) or relative humidity (> or = 45%) and poor ventilation (< 0.5 ach) contained higher levels of mite allergens than homes with lower humidity and better ventilation. However, the number of ach measurements in homes was not high, and few homes had > 0.5 ach. Sensitization to house-dust mites was more common in southern than in northern and central Sweden. High levels of house-dust mite allergen in a temperate climate where mites are not ubiquitous are thus associated with dampness problems in homes and with tobacco smoking. Our data confirm and extend previous findings that high AIH and RH and poor ventilation increase the risk of mite infestation in homes. It seems to be important and necessary to control indoor humidity and ventilation levels, to avoid high mite allergen exposure in a temperate climate, because 34% of mite-sensitized asthmatic children were exposed to levels of mite allergen < 2 micrograms/g dust in their homes. The study also

  3. Validation of a regional climate model over Dome C, Antarctica, for summer conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gallée, Hubert; Vignon, Étienne; Genthon, Christophe; Argentini, Stefania

    2016-04-01

    Regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) was run for the region of Dome C located on the East Antarctic plateau, during summer. A very high vertical resolution is set up in the lower troposphere. Model output is compared with temperatures and winds observed near the surface and from a 45 m high tower as well as sodar and radiation data. MAR is generally in very good agreement with the observations during clear sky days, but sometimes underestimates cloud formation, leading to an underestimation of the simulated downward long-wave radiation. Absorbed short-wave radiation may also be slightly overestimated due to an underestimation of the snow albedo, and this influences the surface energy budget and atmospheric turbulence.

  4. Evaluating climate field reconstruction techniques using improved emulations of real-world conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, J.; Emile-Geay, J.; Guillot, D.; Smerdon, J. E.; Rajaratnam, B.

    2014-01-01

    Pseudoproxy experiments (PPEs) have become an important framework for evaluating paleoclimate reconstruction methods. Most existing PPE studies assume constant proxy availability through time and uniform proxy quality across the pseudoproxy network. Real multiproxy networks are, however, marked by pronounced disparities in proxy quality, and a steep decline in proxy availability back in time, either of which may have large effects on reconstruction skill. A suite of PPEs constructed from a millennium-length general circulation model (GCM) simulation is thus designed to mimic these various real-world characteristics. The new pseudoproxy network is used to evaluate four climate field reconstruction (CFR) techniques: truncated total least squares embedded within the regularized EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm (RegEM-TTLS), the Mann et al. (2009) implementation of RegEM-TTLS (M09), canonical correlation analysis (CCA), and Gaussian graphical models embedded within RegEM (GraphEM). Each method's risk properties are also assessed via a 100-member noise ensemble. Contrary to expectation, it is found that reconstruction skill does not vary monotonically with proxy availability, but also is a function of the type and amplitude of climate variability (forced events vs. internal variability). The use of realistic spatiotemporal pseudoproxy characteristics also exposes large inter-method differences. Despite the comparable fidelity in reconstructing the global mean temperature, spatial skill varies considerably between CFR techniques. Both GraphEM and CCA efficiently exploit teleconnections, and produce consistent reconstructions across the ensemble. RegEM-TTLS and M09 appear advantageous for reconstructions on highly noisy data, but are subject to larger stochastic variations across different realizations of pseudoproxy noise. Results collectively highlight the importance of designing realistic pseudoproxy networks and implementing multiple noise realizations of PPEs

  5. Hindcasting Historical Breeding Conditions for an Endangered Salamander in Ephemeral Wetlands of the Southeastern USA: Implications of Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Chandler, Houston C; Rypel, Andrew L; Jiao, Yan; Haas, Carola A; Gorman, Thomas A

    2016-01-01

    The hydroperiod of ephemeral wetlands is often the most important characteristic determining amphibian breeding success, especially for species with long development times. In mesic and wet pine flatwoods of the southeastern United States, ephemeral wetlands were a common landscape feature. Reticulated flatwoods salamanders (Ambystoma bishopi), a federally endangered species, depend exclusively on ephemeral wetlands and require at least 11 weeks to successfully metamorphose into terrestrial adults. We empirically modeled hydroperiod of 17 A. bishopi breeding wetlands by combining downscaled historical climate-model data with a recent 9-year record (2006-2014) of observed water levels. Empirical models were subsequently used to reconstruct wetland hydrologic conditions from 1896-2014 using the downscaled historical climate datasets. Reconstructed hydroperiods for the 17 wetlands were highly variable through time but were frequently unfavorable for A. bishopi reproduction (e.g., only 61% of years, using a conservative estimate of development time [12 weeks], were conducive to larval development and metamorphosis). Using change-point analysis, we identified significant shifts in average hydroperiod over the last century in all 17 wetlands. Mean hydroperiods were shorter in recent years than at any other point since 1896, and thus less suitable for A. bishopi reproduction. We suggest that climate change will continue to impact the reproductive success of flatwoods salamanders and other ephemeral wetland breeders by reducing the number of years these wetlands have suitable hydroperiods. Consequently, we emphasize the importance of conservation and management for mitigating other forms of habitat degradation, especially maintenance of high quality breeding sites where reproduction can occur during appropriate environmental conditions.

  6. Hindcasting Historical Breeding Conditions for an Endangered Salamander in Ephemeral Wetlands of the Southeastern USA: Implications of Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Chandler, Houston C.; Rypel, Andrew L.; Jiao, Yan; Haas, Carola A.; Gorman, Thomas A.

    2016-01-01

    The hydroperiod of ephemeral wetlands is often the most important characteristic determining amphibian breeding success, especially for species with long development times. In mesic and wet pine flatwoods of the southeastern United States, ephemeral wetlands were a common landscape feature. Reticulated flatwoods salamanders (Ambystoma bishopi), a federally endangered species, depend exclusively on ephemeral wetlands and require at least 11 weeks to successfully metamorphose into terrestrial adults. We empirically modeled hydroperiod of 17 A. bishopi breeding wetlands by combining downscaled historical climate-model data with a recent 9-year record (2006–2014) of observed water levels. Empirical models were subsequently used to reconstruct wetland hydrologic conditions from 1896–2014 using the downscaled historical climate datasets. Reconstructed hydroperiods for the 17 wetlands were highly variable through time but were frequently unfavorable for A. bishopi reproduction (e.g., only 61% of years, using a conservative estimate of development time [12 weeks], were conducive to larval development and metamorphosis). Using change-point analysis, we identified significant shifts in average hydroperiod over the last century in all 17 wetlands. Mean hydroperiods were shorter in recent years than at any other point since 1896, and thus less suitable for A. bishopi reproduction. We suggest that climate change will continue to impact the reproductive success of flatwoods salamanders and other ephemeral wetland breeders by reducing the number of years these wetlands have suitable hydroperiods. Consequently, we emphasize the importance of conservation and management for mitigating other forms of habitat degradation, especially maintenance of high quality breeding sites where reproduction can occur during appropriate environmental conditions. PMID:26910245

  7. Influence of climatic variables, forest type, and condition on activity patterns of Geoffroyi's spider monkeys throughout Mesoamerica.

    PubMed

    González-Zamora, Arturo; Arroyo-Rodríguez, Víctor; Chaves, Oscar M; Sánchez-López, Sónia; Aureli, Filippo; Stoner, Kathryn E

    2011-12-01

    Understanding how species cope with variations in climatic conditions, forest types and habitat amount is a fundamental challenge for ecologists and conservation biologists. We used data from 18 communities of Mesoamerican spider monkeys (Ateles geoffroyi) throughout their range to determine whether their activity patterns are affected by climatic variables (temperature and rainfall), forest types (seasonal and nonseasonal forests), and forest condition (continuous and fragmented). Data were derived from 15 published and unpublished studies carried out in four countries (Mexico, El Salvador, Costa Rica, and Panama), cumulatively representing more than 18 years (221 months, >3,645 hr) of behavioral observations. Overall, A. geoffroyi spent most of their time feeding (38.4 ± 14.0%, mean ± SD) and resting (36.6 ± 12.8%) and less time traveling (19.8 ± 11.3%). Resting and feeding were mainly affected by rainfall: resting time increased with decreasing rainfall, whereas feeding time increased with rainfall. Traveling time was negatively related to both rainfall and maximum temperature. In addition, both resting and traveling time were higher in seasonal forests (tropical dry forest and tropical moist forest) than in nonseasonal forests (tropical wet forest), but feeding time followed the opposite pattern. Furthermore, spider monkeys spent more time feeding and less time resting (i.e., higher feeding effort) in forest fragments than in continuous forest. These findings suggest that global climate changes and habitat deforestation and fragmentation in Mesoamerica will threaten the survival of spider monkeys and reduce the distributional range of the species in the coming decades.

  8. Influence of the continental climatic conditions on the essential-oil composition of Salvia brachyodon Vandas transferred from Adriatic Coast.

    PubMed

    Vidic, Danijela; Maksimović, Milka; Cavar, Sanja; Siljak-Yakovlev, Sonja

    2010-05-01

    Essential-oil profile of Salvia brachyodon Vandas, an endemic Dinaric species transferred from Adriatic Coast to the continental climatic conditions, was determined. Hydrodistilled oils obtained from the plant material collected in three-year field trial were subjected to the detailed GC/MS analysis. Hundred and fifty volatile compounds were identified in four samples. Comparison of the chemical composition of the isolated essential oils showed that population collected one year after transfer preserved sesquiterpene character of its oil (74.3%), while all subsequent samples gave the oils of monoterpene type with 1,8-cineole as the principal constituent (22.2-42.3%). The high degree of variation in the qualitative and quantitative composition of the volatile constituents revealed the strong influence of environmental conditions on the nature of plant chemical composition that has an important role in a plant adaptation.

  9. Thermal comfort in air-conditioned buildings in hot and humid climates--why are we not getting it right?

    PubMed

    Sekhar, S C

    2016-02-01

    While there are plenty of anecdotal experiences of overcooled buildings in summer, evidence from field studies suggests that there is indeed an issue of overcooling in tropical buildings. The findings suggest that overcooled buildings are not a consequence of occupant preference but more like an outcome of the HVAC system design and operation. Occupants' adaptation in overcooled indoor environments through additional clothing cannot be regarded as an effective mitigating strategy for cold thermal discomfort. In the last two decades or so, several field studies and field environmental chamber studies in the tropics provided evidence for occupants' preference for a warmer temperature with adaptation methods such as elevated air speeds. It is important to bear in mind that indoor humidity levels are not compromised as they could have an impact on the inhaled air condition that could eventually affect perceived air quality. This review article has attempted to track significant developments in our understanding of the thermal comfort issues in air-conditioned office and educational buildings in hot and humid climates in the last 25 years, primarily on occupant preference for thermal comfort in such climates. The issue of overcooled buildings, by design intent or otherwise, is discussed in some detail. Finally, the article has explored some viable adaptive thermal comfort options that show considerable promise for not only improving thermal comfort in tropical buildings but are also energy efficient and could be seen as sustainable solutions.

  10. Climate change, phenology, and habitat degradation: drivers of gosling body condition and juvenile survival in lesser snow geese.

    PubMed

    Aubry, Lise M; Rockwell, Robert F; Cooch, Evan G; Brook, Rodney W; Mulder, Christa P H; Koons, David N

    2013-01-01

    Nesting migratory geese are among the dominant herbivores in (sub) arctic environments, which have undergone unprecedented increases in temperatures and plant growing days over the last three decades. Within these regions, the Hudson Bay Lowlands are home to an overabundant breeding population of lesser snow geese that has dramatically damaged the ecosystem, with cascading effects at multiple trophic levels. In some areas the overabundance of geese has led to a drastic reduction in available forage. In addition, warming of this region has widened the gap between goose migration timing and plant green-up, and this 'mismatch' between goose and plant phenologies could in turn affect gosling development. The dual effects of climate change and habitat quality on gosling body condition and juvenile survival are not known, but are critical for predicting population growth and related degradation of (sub) arctic ecosystems. To address these issues, we used information on female goslings marked and measured between 1978 and 2005 (4125 individuals). Goslings that developed within and near the traditional center of the breeding colony experienced the effects of long-term habitat degradation: body condition and juvenile survival declined over time. In newly colonized areas, however, we observed the opposite pattern (increase in body condition and juvenile survival). In addition, warmer than average winters and summers resulted in lower gosling body condition and first-year survival. Too few plant 'growing days' in the spring relative to hatch led to similar results. Our assessment indicates that geese are recovering from habitat degradation by moving to newly colonized locales. However, a warmer climate could negatively affect snow goose populations in the long-run, but it will depend on which seasons warm the fastest. These antagonistic mechanisms will require further study to help predict snow goose population dynamics and manage the trophic cascade they induce.

  11. Thermal comfort in naturally ventilated and air-conditioned buildings in humid subtropical climate zone in China.

    PubMed

    Yang, Wei; Zhang, Guoqiang

    2008-05-01

    A thermal comfort field study has been carried out in five cities in the humid subtropical climate zone in China. The survey was performed in naturally ventilated and air-conditioned buildings during the summer season in 2006. There were 229 occupants from 111 buildings who participated in this study and 229 questionnaire responses were collected. Thermal acceptability assessment reveals that the indoor environment in naturally ventilated buildings could not meet the 80% acceptability criteria prescribed by ASHRAE Standard 55, and people tended to feel more comfortable in air-conditioned buildings with the air-conditioned occupants voting with higher acceptability (89%) than the naturally ventilated occupants (58%). The neutral temperatures in naturally ventilated and air-conditioned buildings were 28.3 degrees C and 27.7 degrees C, respectively. The range of accepted temperature in naturally ventilated buildings (25.0-31.6 degrees C) was wider than that in air-conditioned buildings (25.1-30.3 degrees C), which suggests that occupants in naturally ventilated buildings seemed to be more tolerant of higher temperatures. Preferred temperatures were 27.9 degrees C and 27.3 degrees C in naturally ventilated and air-conditioned buildings, respectively, both of which were 0.4 degrees C cooler than neutral temperatures. This result suggests that people of hot climates may use words like "slightly cool" to describe their preferred thermal state. The relationship between draught sensation and indoor air velocity at different temperature ranges indicates that indoor air velocity had a significant influence over the occupants' comfort sensation, and air velocities required by occupants increased with the increasing of operative temperatures. Thus, an effective way of natural ventilation which can create the preferred higher air movement is called for. Finally, the indoor set-point temperature of 26 degrees C or even higher in air-conditioned buildings was confirmed as making

  12. Thermal comfort in naturally ventilated and air-conditioned buildings in humid subtropical climate zone in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Wei; Zhang, Guoqiang

    2008-05-01

    A thermal comfort field study has been carried out in five cities in the humid subtropical climate zone in China. The survey was performed in naturally ventilated and air-conditioned buildings during the summer season in 2006. There were 229 occupants from 111 buildings who participated in this study and 229 questionnaire responses were collected. Thermal acceptability assessment reveals that the indoor environment in naturally ventilated buildings could not meet the 80% acceptability criteria prescribed by ASHRAE Standard 55, and people tended to feel more comfortable in air-conditioned buildings with the air-conditioned occupants voting with higher acceptability (89%) than the naturally ventilated occupants (58%). The neutral temperatures in naturally ventilated and air-conditioned buildings were 28.3°C and 27.7°C, respectively. The range of accepted temperature in naturally ventilated buildings (25.0˜31.6°C) was wider than that in air-conditioned buildings (25.1˜30.3°C), which suggests that occupants in naturally ventilated buildings seemed to be more tolerant of higher temperatures. Preferred temperatures were 27.9°C and 27.3°C in naturally ventilated and air-conditioned buildings, respectively, both of which were 0.4°C cooler than neutral temperatures. This result suggests that people of hot climates may use words like “slightly cool” to describe their preferred thermal state. The relationship between draught sensation and indoor air velocity at different temperature ranges indicates that indoor air velocity had a significant influence over the occupants’ comfort sensation, and air velocities required by occupants increased with the increasing of operative temperatures. Thus, an effective way of natural ventilation which can create the preferred higher air movement is called for. Finally, the indoor set-point temperature of 26°C or even higher in air-conditioned buildings was confirmed as making people comfortable, which supports the regulation

  13. Modeling the water-energy nexus under changing energy market and climate conditions: a case study in the Italian Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denaro, Simona; Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Fumagalli, Elena; Giuliani, Matteo

    2015-04-01

    Climate change and growing population are expected to severely affect freshwater availability by the end of 21th century. Many river basins, especially in the Mediterranean region, are likely to become more prone to periods of reduced water supply, risking considerable impacts on the society, the environment, and the economy, thus emphasizing the need to rethink the way water resources are distributed, managed, and used at the regional and river basin scale. This paradigm shift will be essential to cope with the undergoing global change, characterized by growing water demands and by increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes. Most of the literature traditionally focused on predicting the impacts of climate change on water resources, while our understanding of the human footprint on the hydrological cycle is limited. For example, changes in the operation of the Alpine hydropower reservoirs induced by socio-economic drivers (e.g., development of renewable energy) have been already observed over the last few years and have produced relevant impacts on multiple water uses due to the altered distribution of water volumes in time and space. Modeling human decisions as well as the links between society and environmental systems becomes key to develop reliable projections on the co-evolution of the coupled human-water systems and deliver robust adaptation strategies. This work contributes a preliminary model-based analysis of the behaviour of hydropower operators under changing energy market and climate conditions. The proposed approach is developed for the San Giacomo-Cancano reservoir system located in the Lake Como catchment. The identification of the current operating policy is supported by input variable selection methods to select the most relevant hydrological and market based drivers to explain the observed release time series. The identified model is then simulated under a set of future scenarios, accounting for both climate and socio-economic change (e

  14. Three responses of wetland conditions to climatic extremes in the Prairie Pothole Region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cressey, Ryann L.; Austin, Jane; Stafford, Joshua D.

    2016-01-01

    Wetlands in central North Dakota were revisited after 50 years to assess changes following extreme drought and a prolonged wet period. We compared data collected during 1961–1966 to current (2013–2014) wetland conditions. We revisited 80 wetlands in 2013 and 2014 across three study areas and measured wetland area, ponded-water depth, and specific conductance. Wetlands at the three study areas responded to prolonged wet conditions in one of three ways. Wetlands at Crystal Springs became larger, and had deeper ponds of lower specific conductance in 2013–14 compared to the 1960s. Wetlands at Cottonwood were larger with deeper ponds of slightly higher specific conductance in 2013–2014. Wetlands at Mt. Moriah had only subtle changes in size, pond depth, and specific conductance between periods. Prolonged wet conditions led to merging of most wetlands (defined as the outer edge of wet-meadow vegetation) at Crystal Springs and a few wetlands at Cottonwood. Low topographic relief at Crystal Springs and Cottonwood contributed to storage of excess water in wetlands with associated responses to prolonged wet conditions. In contrast, higher topographic relief and natural outlets into two intermittent streams at Mt. Moriah resulted in wetlands being less impacted by prolonged wet conditions.

  15. Vertical migration of Haemonchus contortus infective larvae on Cynodon dactylon and Paspalum notatum pastures in response to climatic conditions.

    PubMed

    Amaradasa, Bimal S; Lane, Robert A; Manage, Ananda

    2010-05-28

    Observations were made on vertical migration patterns of Haemonchus contortus infective larvae on Cynodon dactylon (bermudagrass) and Paspalum notatum (bahiagrass) pastures under summer climatic conditions typical of East Texas. Ten thousand H. contortus infective larvae (L3) were introduced to 100 cm(2) subplots of each pasture species within a plot area of 1m(2). Subplots were inoculated with larvae by applying them in an aqueous medium to the soil or mat beneath the vegetation. Herbage from the inoculated areas was harvested on 5 sampling days over a span of 21 days. L3 recoveries were observed and recorded each day on four herbage strata viz. 0-5, 5-10, 10-20 and >20 cm from ground level. The log transformed larval recovery data were analyzed for effect of day, stratum, and day x stratum interaction for each grass species during two separate experimental periods. Precipitation, relative humidity and temperature during the study were subjected to correlation and multiple regression analyses with the larval counts. Significant (Por=0.93) between rainfall and total average daily larval counts was apparent. The multiple regression analysis did not show significant results for any of the climatic factors tested. This study showed that the H. contortus infective larvae can survive beyond 21 days in the soil and infest pasture grasses when the climatic conditions are favorable. Avoiding use of H. contortus contaminated pasturelands in summer at the onset of rainfall following a dry spell may effectively reduce nematode loads in susceptible farm animals. Additional studies should focus on factors affecting long term L3 survivability, migrational pattern on these and other plant species and the

  16. Differential effects of air conditioning type on residential endotoxin levels in a semi-arid climate.

    PubMed

    Johnston, J D; Kruman, B A; Nelson, M C; Merrill, R M; Graul, R J; Hoybjerg, T G; Tuttle, S C; Myers, S J; Cook, R B; Weber, K S

    2017-01-31

    Residential endotoxin exposure is associated with protective and pathogenic health outcomes. Evaporative coolers, an energy-efficient type of air conditioner used in dry climates, are a potential source of indoor endotoxins; however, this association is largely unstudied. We collected settled dust biannually from four locations in homes with evaporative coolers (n=18) and central air conditioners (n=22) in Utah County, Utah (USA), during winter (Jan-Apr) and summer (Aug-Sept), 2014. Dust samples (n=281) were analyzed by the Limulus amebocyte lysate test. Housing factors were measured by survey, and indoor temperature and relative humidity measures were collected during both seasons. Endotoxin concentrations (EU/mg) were significantly higher in homes with evaporative coolers from mattress and bedroom floor samples during both seasons. Endotoxin surface loads (EU/m(2) ) were significantly higher in homes with evaporative coolers from mattress and bedroom floor samples during both seasons and in upholstered furniture during winter. For the nine significant season-by-location comparisons, EU/mg and EU/m(2) were approximately three to six times greater in homes using evaporative coolers. A plausible explanation for these findings is that evaporative coolers serve as a reservoir and distribution system for Gram-negative bacteria or their cell wall components in homes.

  17. Flatfish recruitment response to decadal climatic variability and ocean conditions in the eastern Bering Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilderbuer, T. K.; Hollowed, A. B.; Ingraham, W. J.; Spencer, P. D.; Conners, M. E.; Bond, N. A.; Walters, G. E.

    2002-10-01

    This paper provides a retrospective analysis of the relationship of physical oceanography and biology and recruitment of three Eastern Bering Sea flatfish stocks: flathead sole ( Hippoglossoides elassodon), northern rock sole ( Lepidopsetta polyxystra), and arrowtooth flounder ( Atheresthes stomias) for the period 1978-1996. Temporal trends in flatfish production in the Eastern Bering Sea are consistent with the hypothesis that decadal scale climate variability influences marine survival during the early life history period. Density-dependence (spawning stock size) is statistically significant in a Ricker model of flatfish recruitment, which includes environmental terms. Wind-driven advection of flatfish larvae to favorable nursery grounds was also found to coincide with years of above-average recruitment through the use of an ocean surface current simulation model (OSCURS). Ocean forcing of Bristol Bay surface waters during springtime was mostly shoreward (eastward) during the 1980s and seaward (westerly) during the 1990s, corresponding with periods of good and poor recruitment. Distance from shore and water depth at the endpoint of 90-day drift periods (estimated time of settlement) were also found to correspond with flatfish productivity.

  18. Complementarity effects on tree growth are contingent on tree size and climatic conditions across Europe.

    PubMed

    Madrigal-González, Jaime; Ruiz-Benito, Paloma; Ratcliffe, Sophia; Calatayud, Joaquín; Kändler, Gerald; Lehtonen, Aleksi; Dahlgren, Jonas; Wirth, Christian; Zavala, Miguel A

    2016-08-30

    Neglecting tree size and stand structure dynamics might bias the interpretation of the diversity-productivity relationship in forests. Here we show evidence that complementarity is contingent on tree size across large-scale climatic gradients in Europe. We compiled growth data of the 14 most dominant tree species in 32,628 permanent plots covering boreal, temperate and Mediterranean forest biomes. Niche complementarity is expected to result in significant growth increments of trees surrounded by a larger proportion of functionally dissimilar neighbours. Functional dissimilarity at the tree level was assessed using four functional types: i.e. broad-leaved deciduous, broad-leaved evergreen, needle-leaved deciduous and needle-leaved evergreen. Using Linear Mixed Models we show that, complementarity effects depend on tree size along an energy availability gradient across Europe. Specifically: (i) complementarity effects at low and intermediate positions of the gradient (coldest-temperate areas) were stronger for small than for large trees; (ii) in contrast, at the upper end of the gradient (warmer regions), complementarity is more widespread in larger than smaller trees, which in turn showed negative growth responses to increased functional dissimilarity. Our findings suggest that the outcome of species mixing on stand productivity might critically depend on individual size distribution structure along gradients of environmental variation.

  19. Reexamination of atmospheric drag coefficients used in climate models for Arctic summer conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gryanik, Vladimir M.; Lu"pkes, Christof; Hartmann, Jo"rg; Birnbaum, Gerit; Andreas, Edgar L.; Ro"sel, Anja; Kaleschke, Lars

    2013-04-01

    Results from polar climate models depend strongly on the quality of the parametrization of subgridscale physical processes such as processes related to clouds, radiation, and turbulence. Realistic modeling of polar sea ice dynamics and atmospheric processes over sea ice needs a detailed representation of the near-surface atmospheric fluxes of momentum. In this conference contribution parametrizations of neutral drag coefficients mostly used in general circulation models (e.g., ECHAM, CCSM, MITgcm) are reexamined by comparing them with a recently developed parametrization including the impact of sea ice morphology. The new parametrization, using the sea ice and melt pond fraction as governing parameters, accounts for the effect of form drag caused by edges at leads, melt ponds, and floes. Based on remote sensing data on ice and melt pond fraction, it is shown that during Arctic summer the traditionally used drag coefficients differ from the new ones by a factor 0.5-1.2. The geographic distribution of drag coefficients obtained from both parametrizations is very different. Differences are due to a nonlinear and non-monotonic dependence of drag coefficients on sea ice concentration in the new parametrization.

  20. Complementarity effects on tree growth are contingent on tree size and climatic conditions across Europe

    PubMed Central

    Madrigal-González, Jaime; Ruiz-Benito, Paloma; Ratcliffe, Sophia; Calatayud, Joaquín; Kändler, Gerald; Lehtonen, Aleksi; Dahlgren, Jonas; Wirth, Christian; Zavala, Miguel A.

    2016-01-01

    Neglecting tree size and stand structure dynamics might bias the interpretation of the diversity-productivity relationship in forests. Here we show evidence that complementarity is contingent on tree size across large-scale climatic gradients in Europe. We compiled growth data of the 14 most dominant tree species in 32,628 permanent plots covering boreal, temperate and Mediterranean forest biomes. Niche complementarity is expected to result in significant growth increments of trees surrounded by a larger proportion of functionally dissimilar neighbours. Functional dissimilarity at the tree level was assessed using four functional types: i.e. broad-leaved deciduous, broad-leaved evergreen, needle-leaved deciduous and needle-leaved evergreen. Using Linear Mixed Models we show that, complementarity effects depend on tree size along an energy availability gradient across Europe. Specifically: (i) complementarity effects at low and intermediate positions of the gradient (coldest-temperate areas) were stronger for small than for large trees; (ii) in contrast, at the upper end of the gradient (warmer regions), complementarity is more widespread in larger than smaller trees, which in turn showed negative growth responses to increased functional dissimilarity. Our findings suggest that the outcome of species mixing on stand productivity might critically depend on individual size distribution structure along gradients of environmental variation. PMID:27571971

  1. Indoor air pollution by organic emissions from textile floor coverings. Climate chamber studies under dynamic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sollinger, S.; Levsen, K.; Wünsch, G.

    The time dependence of the emission of organic compounds from a polyamide floor covering with styrene-butadiene-rubber (SBR) backing was studied in three climate chambers (0.03, 1.0 and 38 m 3) at 23°C 5nd 45% RH. While volatile compounds such as toluene reach a maximum concentration in the gas phase within 1 h and decrease in concentration to less than 2% within 60 h, the concentration of less volatile compounds, such as 4-phenylcyclohexene, decreases slowly over a period of months. If the chamber is well mixed and a defined chamber loading is maintained the observed concentrations do not depend on the chamber size, the wall material and air velocity. The concentration of the observed emissions is roughly proportional to the chamber loading. Surprisingly it is not inversely proportional to the air exchange rate. Rather, at high air exchange rates mass transfer from the carpet to the gas phase is enhanced. The "decreasing source models" of Dunn and Tichenor ( Atmospheric Environment22, 885-894, 1988) have been applied to the data. They allow the extrapolation of experimental data beyond the time available for measurement. The model calculations reveal the presence of sink effects. The role of the chamber walls as sinks can be determined more reliably if constant sources of an organic compound are placed into the chamber and their increase in concentration with time is compared with the theoretical predictions neglecting sink effects.

  2. Complementarity effects on tree growth are contingent on tree size and climatic conditions across Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madrigal-González, Jaime; Ruiz-Benito, Paloma; Ratcliffe, Sophia; Calatayud, Joaquín; Kändler, Gerald; Lehtonen, Aleksi; Dahlgren, Jonas; Wirth, Christian; Zavala, Miguel A.

    2016-08-01

    Neglecting tree size and stand structure dynamics might bias the interpretation of the diversity-productivity relationship in forests. Here we show evidence that complementarity is contingent on tree size across large-scale climatic gradients in Europe. We compiled growth data of the 14 most dominant tree species in 32,628 permanent plots covering boreal, temperate and Mediterranean forest biomes. Niche complementarity is expected to result in significant growth increments of trees surrounded by a larger proportion of functionally dissimilar neighbours. Functional dissimilarity at the tree level was assessed using four functional types: i.e. broad-leaved deciduous, broad-leaved evergreen, needle-leaved deciduous and needle-leaved evergreen. Using Linear Mixed Models we show that, complementarity effects depend on tree size along an energy availability gradient across Europe. Specifically: (i) complementarity effects at low and intermediate positions of the gradient (coldest-temperate areas) were stronger for small than for large trees; (ii) in contrast, at the upper end of the gradient (warmer regions), complementarity is more widespread in larger than smaller trees, which in turn showed negative growth responses to increased functional dissimilarity. Our findings suggest that the outcome of species mixing on stand productivity might critically depend on individual size distribution structure along gradients of environmental variation.

  3. Phosphorus Concentrations in Above Ground Plant Biomass under Changing Climate Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Selvin, C.; Paytan, A.; Roberts, K.

    2013-12-01

    The Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment explores the effects of climate change on annual grasslands with different combinations of elevated or ambient levels of carbon dioxide, heat, precipitation, and nitrate deposition. The nested split-plot design allows for analysis of each variable, combinations of variables, and secondary effects. In this study, plant nutrient levels in homogenized above ground biomass are analyzed to assess the utility of this parameter as a tool to describe the response of an ecosystem to environmental changes. Total phosphorus concentrations showed considerable variability within treatment (n=8) and therefore no significant differences between treatments (n=16) is found. Carbon and nitrogen concentrations in bulk above ground biomass are being analyzed to determine nitrogen and carbon ratios and further elucidate the environmental response of phosphorus levels in plants to the modified parameters. P concentrations and elemental ratios will also be related to other parameters such as soil humidity, microbial biomass, enzyme activity, and plant diversity to determine the parameters influencing P content in the biomass.

  4. Measuring environmental impact by real time laser differential displacement technique in simulated climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tornari, Vivi; Bernikola, Eirini; Tsigarida, Nota; Hatzigiannakis, Kostas; Andrianakis, Michalis; Leissner, Johanna

    2015-06-01

    Environmental impact on artworks has always been a big issues for preservation of Cultural Heritage. Nowadays with the climate change it is experienced a slow but steady process of temperature increase affecting relative humidity which fluctuates while materials attempt to keep moisture balance. During repetitive equilibrium courses fatigue accumulates endangering the structural integrity prior to fracture. Assessing the risk imposed by the fluctuation allow preventive actions to take place and avoid interventive restoration action after fracture. A methodology is presented employing full-field interferometry by surface probing illumination based on direct realtime recording of surface images from delicate hygroscopic surfaces as they deform to dimensionally respond to relative humidity (RH) changes. The developed methodology aims to develop an early stage risk indicator tool to allow preventive measures directly through surface readings. The presented study1 aiming to experimentally highlight acclimatisation structural phenomena and to verify assumed standards in RH safety range based on the newly introduced concept of deformation threshold value is described and demonstrated with indicative results.

  5. The sensitivity of numerically simulated climates to land-surface boundary conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mintz, Y.

    1982-01-01

    Eleven sensitivity experiments that were made with general circulation models to see how land-surface boundary conditions can influence the rainfall, temperature, and motion fields of the atmosphere are discussed. In one group of experiments, different soil moistures or albedos are prescribed as time-invariant boundary conditions. In a second group, different soil moistures or different albedos are initially prescribed, and the soil moisture (but not the albedo) is allowed to change with time according to the governing equations for soil moisture. In a third group, the results of constant versus time-dependent soil moistures are compared.

  6. [Finasteride adverse effects: An update].

    PubMed

    Carreño-Orellana, Néstor; Moll-Manzur, Catherina; Carrasco-Zuber, Juan Eduardo; Álvarez-Véliz, Sergio; Berroeta-Mauriziano, Daniela; Porras-Kusmanic, Ninoska

    2016-12-01

    Finasteride is a 5-α reductase inhibitor that is widely used in the management of benign prostate hyperplasia and male pattern hair loss. It is well known that these agents improve the quality of life in men suffering from these conditions. However, they are associated with some transient and even permanent adverse effects. The aim of this article is to clarify the controversies about the safety of finasteride by analyzing the evidence available in the literature.

  7. The Recent Nansen's Ice-Shelf Calving Event : Comparison with Meteo-Climatic and Marine Conditions.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fusco, G.; Cannito, A. C. C.; Marinangeli, L.; Cardinale, M.; Pompilio, L.

    2015-12-01

    Ice shelves are important elements of the Cryosphere representing the interface between ice, atmosphere and ocean. They are also the mean to discharge ice from the interior ice sheets contributing to the continental ice mass balance. A sudden change in volume and extension of both ice shelves and floating glacier tongues can rapidly increase the ice streams speed and the ice sheets flow variability.The Nansen ice shelf represent a particular sensible interface between the floating ice and the Terra Nova Bay polynya, a sea area that remains ice-free for almost all the winter time , thus being one of the major responsible of the production of the Antarctic bottom water. Remote sensing technologies gave us the opportunity to observe and investigate on the formation and evolution of an incipient crevasse on the Nansen Ice Shelf, starting from 1999. The crack showed a steady and slow increase in length and rotation up to 2011 and then underwent an abrupt evolution. During the 2014 winter season, the crack reached its maximum elongation and the detachment of large tabular bergs seems to be very close. This should be the first observation of a detachment of large tabular bergs from the Nansen Ice Shelf since the beginning of satellite observations and is an opportunity to investigate complex processes. We analyzed the last ten years record of climate data over the Southern ocean to evaluate the relationships between the intense cyclonic activity, synoptic and mesoscale systems, ocean swells and calving events. We used ECMWF ERA-interim global atmospheric reanalysis model, Landsat images and in situ weather observations from AWS of the Italian Antarctic Program deployed over the Terra Nova Bay cost. Our preliminary results show a strong correlation between the occurrence of some anomalous meteorological configurations over the Southern Ocean and the sudden grow of the monitored crack in the ice shelf. If confirmed, together with this new arrangement of the cryosphere, some

  8. Assessment of permafrost conditions under Northern Quebec's airports: an integrative approach for the development of adaptation strategies to climate warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    L'Hérault, E.; Allard, M.; Doré, G.; Barrette, C.; Verreault, J.; Sarrazin, D.; Doyon, J.; Guimond, A.

    2011-12-01

    Community airports in Nunavik were built between 1984 and 1992 and were designed by using a thick embankment of rock fill placed on undisturbed ground surface to prevent the thawing of the underlying permafrost. However, since around 2000, many of the runways show signs of permafrost disturbance as some localized differential settlements have begun to take place. With the anticipated rise of air temperature, the vulnerability of transportation infrastructures to permafrost degradation raises concerns. Several studies initiated by MTQ were undertaken by CEN to evaluate the permafrost conditions underneath airports. These studies provide valuable baseline information but also reveal the needs for a better understanding of the spatial variability of the surficial deposits, their geotechnical properties and permafrost conditions underneath embankments to assess its sensibility to thawing and to plan adaptation strategies in face of climate warming. A geomorphological and geotechnical investigation campaign, including surficial geology mapping using pre-construction air photographs and recovery of drilled frozen cores, was carried out in the summers 2008 and 2009 at eight airports. The impact of the runway embankments on surface drainage, snow drift accumulation and permafrost thawing was also determined. Stratigraphic information from drilling was used to reinterpret CCR and GPR surveys done in previous studies. High resolution cross-sections of the stratigraphy and permafrost conditions could then be drawn. Lab testing over undisturbed frozen samples was performed to determine the geotechnical properties of the different stratigraphic units encountered, particularly thaw consolidation ratios. Field measurements of ground temperatures and numerical modeling of the thermal regime of the embankment and subgrade were also performed to assess the potential impacts on permafrost stability alongside and beneath embankments under different climate change scenarios. Thermistor

  9. Variability of macrobenthic assemblages under abnormal climatic conditions in a small scale tropical estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucero R., Carlos H.; Cantera K., Jaime R.; Romero, Isabel C.

    2006-06-01

    Macrobenthic assemblages associated with mangrove mud flats were studied at three stations in the Dagua River Estuary (Colombian coast, Tropical Eastern Pacific) to assess broad distribution patterns with relation to hydrographical and sediment conditions during the cold (La Niña) phase of the 1997-2000 El Niño/Niña Phenomenon (ENSO Niño/Niña). During the study period, abnormal water and interstitial temperature, high dissolved oxygen and low salinity conditions were present in the water column of the small scale (5.5 km long) estuary, reducing its extension and moving estuarine conditions downstream. Sediment samples were collected for sediment analysis (grain size, water content) and biological studies (specific composition, relative abundance, diversity, evenness and trophic structure) from quadrates (25 × 25 cm) located in the lower, middle and upper regions of the estuary. Macrobenthic assemblages at the upper estuary were composed of 78 species and dominated by Tanaidaceans, suggesting the direct effect of freshwater inflow, and by some polychaetes in the lower region, showing marine influence. Diversity and evenness increased along the salinity gradient from the upper region of the estuary towards the lower region. Surface deposit feeders (SDF, 72.2%) and sub-surface deposit feeders (SSDF, 21%) were dominant as trophic groups. SDF were the most abundant group in the upper estuary, SSDF dominated the lower estuary. These patterns were controlled by the abnormal conditions generated by the cold phase of ENSO (Niño/Niña) in water temperature, higher deposition of organic matter and low salinity that changed the estuarine's typical macrobenthic assemblage structure, with dominance of marine species to one characterized by few abundant freshwater species (Tanaidaceans, insects).

  10. Diverse seed banks favour adaptation of microalgal populations to future climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Kremp, Anke; Oja, Johanna; LeTortorec, Anniina H; Hakanen, Päivi; Tahvanainen, Pia; Tuimala, Jarno; Suikkanen, Sanna

    2016-02-01

    Selection of suitable genotypes from diverse seed banks may help phytoplankton populations to cope with environmental changes. This study examines whether the high genotypic diversity found in the Baltic cyst pool of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium ostenfeldii is coupled to phenotypic variability that could aid short-term adaptation. Growth rates, cellular toxicities and bioluminescence of 34 genetically different clones isolated from cyst beds of four Baltic bloom sites were determined in batch culture experiments along temperature and salinity gradients covering present and future conditions in the Baltic Sea. For all parameters a significant effect of genotype on the response to temperature and salinity changes was identified. General or site-specific effects of the two factors remained minor. Clones thriving at future conditions were different from the best performing at present conditions, suggesting that genotypic shifts may be expected in the future. Increased proportions of highly potent saxitoxin were observed as a plastic response to temperature increase, indicating a potential for higher toxicity of future blooms. The observed standing variation in Baltic seed banks of A. ostenfeldii suggests that the population is likely to persist under environmental change.

  11. Investigating Atmospheric Effects on Impact Ejecta Morphology: Possible Tool for Determining Past Climate Conditions on Mars?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Appleby, John F.; Barnouin-Jha, Oliver S.; Cheng, Andrew F.

    1999-01-01

    The combined use of impact crater morphology and mechanics provides important information on the physical conditions of both planetary atmospheres and planetary and asteroid surfaces present during crater formation, while an understanding of the rate of crater production on the surface of asteroids provides information of their surface and spin rate evolution. The research performed with support from this project improves our understanding of (1) the mechanics of impact cratering in order to gain insights on the evolution of these physical surface conditions on planets with atmospheres and asteroids, and (2) how impact flux across an asteroid surface may vary due to anisotropic distribution of impactors in the solar system. As part of this project, we have undertaken three studies. In the first study, we investigate atmospheric effects on the morphology of ejecta excavated during a cratering event in order to determine the atmospheric and target conditions from observed crater morphologies. In the second study, we use the physical and morphological consequences of oblique impacts on an asteroid to understand how the asteroid Mathilde (recently imaged by the Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous - NEAR- spacecraft) could have survived the formation of five giant craters. In a third study, we use a Monte Carlo method to calculate the impact flux on an asteroid given a distribution of impactors on elliptical orbits. In the following section, we present the result obtained from all three studies.

  12. Reverse engineering adverse outcome pathways.

    PubMed

    Perkins, Edward J; Chipman, J Kevin; Edwards, Stephen; Habib, Tanwir; Falciani, Francesco; Taylor, Ronald; Van Aggelen, Graham; Vulpe, Chris; Antczak, Philipp; Loguinov, Alexandre

    2011-01-01

    The toxicological effects of many stressors are mediated through unknown, or incompletely characterized, mechanisms of action. The application of reverse engineering complex interaction networks from high dimensional omics data (gene, protein, metabolic, signaling) can be used to overcome these limitations. This approach was used to characterize adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) for chemicals that disrupt the hypothalamus-pituitary-gonadal endocrine axis in fathead minnows (FHM, Pimephales promelas). Gene expression changes in FHM ovaries in response to seven different chemicals, over different times, doses, and in vivo versus in vitro conditions, were captured in a large data set of 868 arrays. Potential AOPs of the antiandrogen flutamide were examined using two mutual information-based methods to infer gene regulatory networks and potential AOPs. Representative networks from these studies were used to predict network paths from stressor to adverse outcome as candidate AOPs. The relationship of individual chemicals to an adverse outcome can be determined by following perturbations through the network in response to chemical treatment, thus leading to the nodes associated with the adverse outcome. Identification of candidate pathways allows for formation of testable hypotheses about key biological processes, biomarkers, or alternative endpoints that can be used to monitor an AOP. Finally, the unique challenges facing the application of this approach in ecotoxicology were identified and a road map for the utilization of these tools presented.

  13. Advanced Fast Curing Adhesives for Adverse Conditions

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-07-01

    set of battle damage repair adhesives include Belzona 2311 elastomer , Belzona 1221 super metal, and Belzona metal plug, which are very fast curing...resin, and dinonylphenol (10). Marine use A-788 Splash Zone epoxy- polyamide mastic from Z Spar, Los Angeles, CA was used for testing (11). The

  14. Changes in Hydrologic Conditions and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Circumpolar Regions due to Climate Change-Induced Permafrost Retreat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whiticar, M. J.; Bhatti, J.; Startsev, N.

    2011-12-01

    Thawing permafrost peatlands influence northern ecosystems by changing the regional hydrology and mobilizing the vast carbon (C) reserves that results in increased greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions to the atmosphere. With permafrost distribution controlled largely by topography and climate, our IPY study intensively monitored the local C cycling processes and GHG fluxes associated with different hydrologic and permafrost environments at 4 sites along a climatic gradient extending from the Isolated Patches Permafrost Zone (northern Alberta), to the Continuous Permafrost Zone (Inuvik, NWT). Each site encompasses a local gradient from upland forest and peat plateau to collapse scar. Our multi-year measurements of peatland profiles and flux chambers for CH4 and CO2 concentrations and stable isotope ratios indicate processes, including methanogenesis, methanotrophy, transport and emission that control the distribution of these GHGs. These relationships are modulated by fluctuating local soil water and corresponding ecosystem conditions. The gas geochemistry shows that significant surface CH4 production occurs by both hydrogenotrophic and methyl-fermentative methanogenesis in submerged, anaerobic peats, e.g., collapse scars, whereas methane oxidation is restricted to aerobic, drier environments, e.g., upland sites and peat-atmosphere interface. The most active methanogenesis and emissions are in areas of actively thawing permafrost contrasting with sites under continuous permafrost. This degree of methanogenesis is being amplified by the increased rate of Arctic warming and the rapid retreat of Permafrost in Canada's Arctic (ca. 2.5 km/yr).

  15. Changes in Hydrologic Conditions and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Circumpolar Regions due to Climate Change-Induced Permafrost Retreat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whiticar, M. J.; Bhatti, J.; Startsev, N.

    2012-12-01

    Thawing permafrost peatlands influence northern ecosystems by changing the regional hydrology and mobilizing the vast carbon (C) reserves that results in increased greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions to the atmosphere. With permafrost distribution controlled largely by topography and climate, our IPY study intensively monitored the local C cycling processes and GHG fluxes associated with different hydrologic and permafrost environments at 4 sites along a latitudinal climatic gradient of Boreal, Subarctic and Arctic ecoclimatic regions that extend south-north from the Isolated Patches Permafrost Zone (northern Alberta), to the Continuous Permafrost Zone (Inuvik, NWT). Each site encompasses a local hydrologic gradient from upland forest and peat plateau to collapse scar. Our multi-year measurements of peatland profiles and flux chambers for CH4 and CO2 concentrations and stable isotope ratios indicate processes, including methanogenesis, methanotrophy, transport and emission that control the distribution of these GHGs. These relationships are modulated by fluctuating local soil water and corresponding ecosystem conditions. The gas geochemistry shows that significant surface CH4 production occurs by both hydrogenotrophic and methyl-fermentative methanogenesis in submerged, anaerobic peats, e.g., collapse scars, whereas methane oxidation is restricted to aerobic, drier environments, e.g., upland sites and peat-atmosphere interface. The most active methanogenesis and emissions are in areas of actively thawing permafrost contrasting with sites under continuous permafrost. This degree of methanogenesis is being amplified by the increased rate of Arctic warming and the rapid retreat of permafrost in Canada's Arctic (ca. 2.5 km/yr).

  16. Plant epiphytism in semiarid conditions revealed the influence of habitat and climate variables on AM fungi communities distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torrecillas, Emma; Torres, Pilar; Díaz, Gisela; del Mar Alguacil, Maria; Querejeta, Jose Ignacio; García, Fuensanta; Roldán, Antonio

    2014-05-01

    In semiarid Mediterranean ecosystems epiphytic plant species are practically absent and only some species of palm-trees can support epiphytes growing in their lower crown area, such as Phoenix dactylifera L. (date palm). In this study we focused in Sonchus tenerrimus L. plants growing as facultative epiphytes in P. dactylifera and its terrestrial forms growing in adjacent soils, Our aim was to determine the possible presence of AMF in these peculiar habitats and to relate AMF communities with climatic variations. We investigated the AMF community composition of epiphytic and terrestrial S. tenerrimus plants along a temperature and precipitation gradient across 12 localities. Epiphytic roots were colonized by AM fungi as determined by microscopic observation, all epiphytic and terrestrial samples analysed showed AMF sequences from taxa belonging to the phylum Glomeromycota, which were grouped in 30 AMF OTUs. The AMF community composition was clearly different between epiphytic and terrestrial root samples and this could be attributable to dispersal constraints and/or the contrasting environmental and ecophysiological conditions prevailing in each habitat. Across sites, the richness and diversity of terrestrial AMF communities was positively correlated with rainfall amount during the most recent growing season. In contrast, there was no significant correlation between climate variables and AMF richness and diversity for epiphytic AMF communities, which suggests that the composition of AMF communities in epiphytic habitats appears to be largely determined by the availability and dispersion of fungal propagules from adjacent terrestrial habitats.

  17. Mixed boundary conditions versus coupling with an energy-moisture balance model for a zonally averaged ocean climate model

    SciTech Connect

    Bjornsson, H.; Mysak, L.A.; Schmidt, G.A.

    1997-10-01

    The Wright and Stocker oceanic thermohaline circulation model is coupled to a recently developed zonally averaged energy moisture balance model for the atmosphere. The results obtained with this coupled model are compared with those from an ocean-only model that employs mixed boundary conditions. The ocean model geometry uses either one zonally averaged interhemispheric basin (the {open_quotes}Atlantic{close_quotes}) or two zonally averaged basins (roughly approximating the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans) connected by a parameterized Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The differences in the steady states and their linear stability are examined over a wide range of parameters. The presence of additional feedbacks between the ocean circulation and the atmosphere and hydrological cycle in the coupled model produces significant differences between the latter and the ocean-only model, in both the one-basin and two-basin geometries. The authors conclude that due to the effects produced by the feedbacks in the coupled model, they must have serious reservations about the results concerning long-term climate variability obtained from ocean-only models. Thus, to investigate long-term climatic variability a coupled model is necessary. 31 refs., 15 figs., 7 tabs.

  18. Do it well and do it right: The impact of service climate and ethical climate on business performance and the boundary conditions.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Kaifeng; Hu, Jia; Hong, Ying; Liao, Hui; Liu, Songbo

    2016-11-01

    Prior research has demonstrated that service climate can enhance unit performance by guiding employees' service behavior to satisfy customers. Extending this literature, we identified ethical climate toward customers as another indispensable organizational climate in service contexts and examined how and when service climate operates in conjunction with ethical climate to enhance business performance of service units. Based on data collected in 2 phases over 6 months from multiple sources of 196 movie theaters, we found that service climate and ethical climate had disparate impacts on business performance, operationalized as an index of customer attendance rate and operating income per labor hour, by enhancing service behavior and reducing unethical behavior, respectively. Furthermore, we found that service behavior and unethical behavior interacted to affect business performance, in such a way that service behavior was more positively related to business performance when unethical behavior was low than when it was high. This interactive effect between service and unethical behaviors was further strengthened by high market turbulence and competitive intensity. These findings provide new insight into theoretical development of service management and offer practical implications about how to maximize business performance of service units by managing organizational climates and employee behaviors synergistically. (PsycINFO Database Record

  19. A review of Tertiary climate changes in southern South America and the Antarctic Peninsula. Part 1: Oceanic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Roux, J. P.

    2012-03-01

    Oceanic conditions around southern South America and the Antarctic Peninsula have a major influence on climate patterns in these subcontinents. During the Tertiary, changes in ocean water temperatures and currents also strongly affected the continental climates and seem to have been controlled in turn by global tectonic events and sea-level changes. During periods of accelerated sea-floor spreading, an increase in the mid-ocean ridge volumes and the outpouring of basaltic lavas caused a rise in sea-level and mean ocean temperature, accompanied by the large-scale release of CO2. The precursor of the South Equatorial Current would have crossed the East Pacific Rise twice before reaching the coast of southern South America, thus heating up considerably during periods of ridge activity. The absence of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current before the opening of the Drake Passage suggests that the current flowing north along the present western seaboard of southern South American could have been temperate even during periods of ridge inactivity, which might explain the generally warm temperatures recorded in the Southeast Pacific from the early Oligocene to middle Miocene. Along the east coast of southern South America, water temperatures also fluctuated between temperate-cool and warm until the early Miocene, when the first incursion of temperate-cold to cold Antarctic waters is recorded. The cold Falkland/Malvinas Current initiated only after the middle Miocene. After the opening of the Drake Passage, the South Equatorial Current would have joined the newly developed, cold Antarctic Circumpolar Current on its way to Southern South America. During periods of increased sea-floor spreading, it would have contributed heat to the Antarctic Circumpolar Current that caused a poleward shift in climatic belts. However, periods of decreased sea-floor spreading would have been accompanied by diminishing ridge volumes and older, cooler and denser oceanic plates, causing global sea

  20. Impact of conservation agriculture on catchment runoff and soil loss under changing climate conditions in May Zeg-zeg (Ethiopia)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lanckriet, Sil; Araya, Tesfay; Cornelis, Wim; Verfaillie, Els; Poesen, Jean; Govaerts, Bram; Bauer, Hans; Deckers, Jozef; Haile, Mitiku; Nyssen, Jan

    2012-12-01

    SummaryThis study evaluates the practice of conservation agriculture (CA) in the May Zeg-zeg catchment (MZZ; 187 ha) in the North Ethiopian Highlands as a soil management technique for reducing soil loss and runoff, and assesses the consequences of future large-scale implementation on soil and hydrology at catchment-level. The study of such practice is important especially under conditions of climate change, since EdGCM (Educational Global Climate Model) simulation predicts by 2040 an increase in precipitation by more than 100 mm yr-1 in the study area. Firstly, field-saturated infiltration rates, together with soil texture and soil organic carbon contents, were measured. The relation with local topography allows to generate a pedotransfer function for field-saturated infiltration rate, and spatial interpolation with Linear Regression Mapping was used to map field-saturated infiltration rates optimally within the catchment. Secondly, on several farmlands, CA was checked against plain tillage (PT) for values of field-saturated infiltration rates, soil organic carbon, runoff and soil loss. Results show no significant differences for infiltration rates but significant differences for runoff and soil loss (as measured in the period 2005-2011). Runoff coefficients were 30.4% for PT and 18.8% for CA; soil losses were 35.4 t ha-1 yr-1 for PT and 14.4 t ha-1 yr-1 for CA. Thirdly, all collected information was used to predict future catchment hydrological response for full-implementation of CA under the predicted wetter climate (simulation with EdGCM). Curve Numbers for farmlands with CA were calculated. An area-weighted Curve Number allows the simulation of the 2011 rainy season runoff, predicting a total runoff depth of 23.5 mm under CA and 27.9 mm under PT. Furthermore, the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation management factor P was calibrated for CA. Results also show the important influence of increased surface roughness on water ponding, modeled with a hydrologic

  1. Influence of hydro-climatic conditions, soil type, and application matrix on potential vadose zone export of PPCPs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gall, H. E.; Rao, P.; O'Connor, G.

    2013-12-01

    The land-application of biosolids and animal manure to agricultural fields has the potential to negatively impact the quality of nearby surface and subsurface water due to the presence of emerging contaminants in these residuals. We investigated the extent to which the vadose zone acts as a hydrologic and biogeochemical filter of two emerging contaminants, Triclosan (TCS) and estrone (E1) using a coupled source zone and vadose zone modeling approach. Monte Carlo simulations were run for a year following residual applications to explore the following research questions: (1) how does the application matrix (e.g., de-watered solids, liquid lagoon effluent, etc.) affect PPCP mass fluxes?; (2) how do hydro-climatic conditions and soil type affect PPCP mass fluxes?; (3) what role does the presence of macropore pathways play in PPCP export from the vadose zone; and (4) does the long-term, repeated application of residuals affect the ability of the vadose zone to act as an effective biogeochemical filter? The simulations were conducted for a sub-tropical climate with sand (e.g., Florida) and a humid climate with a silty clay loam (e.g., Midwestern United States). Simulation results suggest that the potential mobility of emerging contaminants increases linearly with increasing fraction applied to the mobile phase of the source zone (i.e., higher PPCP mass fraction in the dissolved phase during application). Following a single application, the total amount of PPCP mass exported from the source zone over the course of a year can be as high as 70% in a sub-tropical climate with sand soil. However, these types of soils do not have macropore flow pathways and the annual PPCP mass exported from the vadose zone is less than 1% of the mass applied. The higher organic carbon content in a silty clay loam reduces the amount of PPCP mass released from the source zone to less than 5% of the mass applied. In the presence of macropore pathways, the silty clay loam's vadose zone acts as a

  2. Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modeling flood damages under climate change conditions - a case study for Germany"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hattermann, F. F.; Huang, S.; Burghoff, O.; Hoffmann, P.; Kundzewicz, Z. W.

    2015-12-01

    In our first study on possible flood damages under climate change in Germany, we reported that a considerable increase in flood related losses can be expected in future, warmer, climate. However, the general significance of the study was limited by the fact that outcome of only one Global Climate Model (GCM) was used as large scale climate driver, while many studies report that GCM models are often the largest source of uncertainty in impact modeling. Here we show that a much broader set of global and regional climate model combinations as climate driver shows trends which are in line with the original results and even give a stronger increase of damages.

  3. Environmental Change: Precipitation and N, P, K, mg Fertilization Influences on Crop Yield Under Temperate Climate Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    László Phd, Dd. M.

    2009-04-01

    Summary: Agroecological quality has a well estabished dependence on climate-rainfall changes because the water problems are pressing. Therefore, there is, growing concern about the potentially wide ranging risks that climate change would have on these key industries as the nature and extent of anticipated changes have become more evident. It also includes changes in land use and in plant production and their management. These changes are unprecedented in terms of both their rate and their spatial extent. Changes in land use (agrotechnics, soil, cultivation, fertility, quality, protection etc.) and in plant production (plant, nutrition, rotation, protection etc.) are currently the main manifestations. As an interdisciplinary problem it is necessary to study such a complex matter in terms of agricultural production. Generally, among natural catastrophes, droughts and floods cause the greatest problems in field crop production. The droughts and the floods that were experienced in Hungary in the early 1980s have drawn renewed attention to the analyses of these problems. New research on climate change-soil-plant systems are focused on yield and yield quality. This paper reports of the climate changes (rainfall); soil (acidic sandy brown forest) properties, mineral N, P, K, Mg fertilisation level and plant interactions on rye (Secale cereale L.), on potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) and on winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yields in a long term field experiment set up at Nyírlugos in north-eastern Hungary under temperate climate conditions in 1962. Results are summarised from 1962 to 1990. Main conclusions were as follows: 1. Rye: a, Experimental years were characterised by frequent extremes of precipitation variabilities and changes. b, By an average year, at a satisfactory fertilisation level (N: 90 kg ha-1 and NP, NK, NPK, NPKMg combinations) the maximum yield reached 3.8 t ha-1. But yield was decreased by 17% and by 52% due to drought and excess rainfall, respectively

  4. Taking the heat: thermoregulation in Asian elephants under different climatic conditions.

    PubMed

    Weissenböck, Nicole M; Arnold, Walter; Ruf, Thomas

    2012-02-01

    Some mammals indigenous to desert environments, such as camels, cope with high heat load by tolerating an increase in body temperature (T (b)) during the hot day, and by dissipating excess heat during the cooler night hours, i.e., heterothermy. Because diurnal heat storage mechanisms should be favoured by large body size, we investigated whether this response also exists in Asian elephants when exposed to warm environmental conditions of their natural habitat. We compared daily cycles of intestinal T (b) of 11 adult Asian elephants living under natural ambient temperatures (T (a)) in Thailand (mean T (a) ~ 30°C) and in 6 Asian elephants exposed to cooler conditions (mean T (a) ~ 21°C) in Germany. Elephants in Thailand had mean daily ranges of T (b) oscillations (1.15°C) that were significantly larger than in animals kept in Germany (0.51°C). This was due to both increased maximum T (b) during the day and decreased minimum T (b) at late night. Elephant's minimum T (b) lowered daily as T (a) increased and hence entered the day with a thermal reserve for additional heat storage, very similar to arid-zone ungulates. We conclude that these responses show all characteristics of heterothermy, and that this thermoregulatory strategy is not restricted to desert mammals, but is also employed by Asian elephants.

  5. Nest-climatic factors affect the abundance of biting flies and their effects on nestling condition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martínez-de la Puente, Josué; Merino, Santiago; Lobato, Elisa; Aguilar, Juan Rivero-de; del Cerro, Sara; Ruiz-de-Castañeda, Rafael; Moreno, Juan

    2010-11-01

    The first step in the establishment of a host-biting fly relationship is host location. While a number of studies highlight the role of host emitted products as important cues affecting host location by biting flies, the role of host temperature is far from clear. We investigated the role of different nest microclimatic variables affecting the interaction between pied flycatchers and two biting flies: black flies and biting midges. Biting midge abundances increased with temperature inside the nest, supporting the potential importance of nest temperature as a cue used by insects to localize their hosts. The possibility that biting fly infestations were associated to ecological conditions in the vicinity of the nests is also discussed. Furthermore, we found a negative association between nestling weight (including tarsus length as a covariate in the analyses) and the interaction between the abundance of biting midges and the presence/absence of black flies in nests. The potential negative effect of these ectoparasites on nestling weight (condition index) and potential differences in the bird phenotypic/genetic quality associated with nest site choice and parasite infestations are considered.

  6. Temperature profile in apricot tree canopies under the soil and climate conditions of the Romanian Black Sea Coast.

    PubMed

    Paltineanu, Cristian; Septar, Leinar; Chitu, Emil

    2016-03-01

    The paper describes the temperature profiles determined by thermal imagery in apricot tree canopies under the semi-arid conditions of the Black Sea Coast in a chernozem of Dobrogea Region, Romania. The study analyzes the thermal vertical profile of apricot orchards for three representative cultivars during summertime. Measurements were done when the soil water content (SWC) was at field capacity (FC) within the rooting depth, after intense sprinkler irrigation applications. Canopy temperature was measured during clear sky days at three heights for both sides of the apricot trees, sunlit (south), and shaded (north). For the SWC studied, i.e., FC, canopy height did not induce a significant difference between the temperature of apricot tree leaves (Tc) and the ambient air temperature (Ta) within the entire vertical tree profile, and temperature measurements by thermal imagery can therefore be taken at any height on the tree crown leaves. Differences between sunlit and shaded sides of the canopy were significant. Because of these differences for Tc-Ta among the apricot tree cultivars studied, lower base lines (LBLs) should be determined for each cultivar separately. The use of thermal imagery technique under the conditions of semi-arid coastal areas with low range of vapor pressure deficit could be useful in irrigation scheduling of apricot trees. The paper discusses the implications of the data obtained in the experiment under the conditions of the coastal area of the Black Sea, Romania, and neighboring countries with similar climate, such as Bulgaria and Turkey.

  7. Population dynamics of aerial and terrestrial populations of Phytophthora ramorum in a California forest under different climatic conditions.

    PubMed

    Eyre, C A; Kozanitas, M; Garbelotto, M

    2013-11-01

    Limited information is available on how soil and leaf populations of the sudden oak death pathogen, Phytophthora ramorum, may differ in their response to changing weather conditions, and their corresponding role in initiating the next disease cycle after unfavorable weather conditions. We sampled and cultured from 425 trees in six sites, three times at the end of a 3-year-long drought and twice during a wet year that followed. Soil was also sampled twice with similar frequency and design used for sampling leaves. Ten microsatellites were used for genetic analyses on cultures from successful isolations. Results demonstrated that incidence of leaf infection tripled at the onset of the first wet period in 3 years in spring 2010, while that of soil populations remained unchanged. Migration of genotypes among sites was low and spatially limited under dry periods but intensity and range of migration of genotypes significantly increased for leaf populations during wet periods. Only leaf genotypes persisted significantly between years, and genotypes present in different substrates distributed differently in soil and leaves. We conclude that epidemics start rapidly at the onset of favorable climatic conditions through highly transmissible leaf genotypes, and that soil populations are transient and may be less epidemiologically relevant than previously thought.

  8. Temperature profile in apricot tree canopies under the soil and climate conditions of the Romanian Black Sea Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paltineanu, Cristian; Septar, Leinar; Chitu, Emil

    2016-03-01

    The paper describes the temperature profiles determined by thermal imagery in apricot tree canopies under the semi-arid conditions of the Black Sea Coast in a chernozem of Dobrogea Region, Romania. The study analyzes the thermal vertical profile of apricot orchards for three representative cultivars during summertime. Measurements were done when the soil water content (SWC) was at field capacity (FC) within the rooting depth, after intense sprinkler irrigation applications. Canopy temperature was measured during clear sky days at three heights for both sides of the apricot trees, sunlit (south), and shaded (north). For the SWC studied, i.e., FC, canopy height did not induce a significant difference between the temperature of apricot tree leaves (Tc) and the ambient air temperature (Ta) within the entire vertical tree profile, and temperature measurements by thermal imagery can therefore be taken at any height on the tree crown leaves. Differences between sunlit and shaded sides of the canopy were significant. Because of these differences for Tc-Ta among the apricot tree cultivars studied, lower base lines (LBLs) should be determined for each cultivar separately. The use of thermal imagery technique under the conditions of semi-arid coastal areas with low range of vapor pressure deficit could be useful in irrigation scheduling of apricot trees. The paper discusses the implications of the data obtained in the experiment under the conditions of the coastal area of the Black Sea, Romania, and neighboring countries with similar climate, such as Bulgaria and Turkey.

  9. Comparison of wetlands in different hydrogeological settings under conditions of extreme climate variability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Winter, T.; Rosenberry, D.; Kelly, E.; LaBaugh, J.

    2005-01-01

    Wetlands in the Cottonwood Lake area in North Dakota, USA, are underlain by poorly permeable till and have little groundwater input. Lakes and wetlands in the Shingobee River headwaters in Minnesota are underlain by permeable sand and have substantial groundwater input. Hydrological, chemical, and biological characteristics of these ecosystems have been monitored since 1977. Both sites experienced the second worst drought of the 20th century followed by the wettest period in more than a century. At Cottonwood Lake, plants that invaded the dry wetlands during the drought were flooded during the wet period and became a food source for animals. This resulted in successive substantial population increases and declines of plankton, invertebrates, amphibians and waterfowl. Substantial groundwater input buffered the lakes and wetlands in the Shingobee area against the changing water conditions. Only subtle changes in water chemistry and plankton populations were observed during the transition from drought to deluge.

  10. Antarctic glaciations under Pliocene climate conditions from numerical modeling and compilation of local field-based reconstructions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernales, Jorge; Rogozhina, Irina; Greve, Ralf

    2014-05-01

    The mid-Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million years before present) is the most recent period in Earth's history when temperatures and CO2 concentrations were likely sustainedly higher than pre-industrial values. Furthermore, the positions of the continents and their sea-land distributions had already reached their present configuration, sharing some similarities with today's patterns of ocean circulation and vegetation distributions. Although significant differences exist -such as a peak sea level that could have been 22 ± 10 m higher than it is today and sea surface temperatures particularly warmer at higher latitudes, mid-Pliocene has been identified as an ideal interval for studying the climate system under conditions similar to those projected for the end of this century. Among the sources of uncertainty in the projections, the response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to warmer-than-today conditions seems to play a central role. Therefore, a better understanding of AIS's behavior during periods like the mid-Pliocene will provide valuable information that could help improve future predictions. For this purpose, we have compiled a wide range of local field-based reconstructions of the ice-sheet margin from Pliocene sediments (with the inclusions of organic matters such as, for instance, diatoms or palynoflora, or ice rafted debris), geochemical records, volcanic ashes and rocks, and geomorphology, and designed numerical experiments of the AIS dynamics during the mid-Pliocene warm period using the large-scale polythermal ice sheet-shelf model SICOPOLIS (Greve, 1997 [1]; Sato and Greve, 2012 [2]). The model is run with a horizontal resolution of 40 × 40 km by the climatology obtained from the PlioMIP Atmosphere Ocean Global Circulation Model experiments (Dolan et al., 2012 [3]). Parameters of the AIS model (e.g. ice calving, sub-ice shelf and surface ice melt, basal sliding, etc.) have initially been estimated using ice-sheet simulations driven by the present

  11. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions. Third quarterly report, April 1993--June 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Reeves, T.L.; Turner, J.P.; Rangarajan, S.; Skinner, Q.D.; Hasfurther, V.

    1993-08-11

    This report presents research objectives, discusses activities, and presents technical progress for the period April 1, 1993 through June 31, 1993 on Contract No. DE-FC21-86LC11084 with the Department of Energy, Laramie Project Office. The scope of the research program and the continuation is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large scale research sufficient to describe commercial scale embankment behavior. The large scale approach was accomplished by establishing five lysimeters, each 7.3 {times} 3.0 {times} 3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process. Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by Rio Blanco Oil Shale Co., Inc. (RBOSC) through a separate cooperative agreement with the University of Wyoming (UW) to carry out this study. Three of the lysimeters were established at the RBOSC Tract C-a in the Piceance Basin of Colorado. Two lysimeters were established in the Environmental Simulation Laboratory (ESL) at UW. The ESL was specifically designed and constructed so that a large range of climatic conditions could be physically applied to the processed oil shale which was filled in the lysimeter cells.

  12. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions. Annual report, October 1991--September 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Turner, J.P.; Reeves, T.L.; Skinner, Q.D.; Hasfurther, V.

    1992-11-01

    The scope of the original research program and of its continuation is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large-scale testing sufficient to describe commercial-scale embankment behavior. The large-scale testing was accomplished by constructing five lysimeters, each 7.3{times}3.0{times}3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process (Schmalfield 1975). Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by Rio Blanco Oil Shale Co., Inc. to carry out this study. Three of the lysimeters were established at the RBOSC Tract C-a in the Piceance Basin near Rifle, Colorado. Two lysimeters were established in the Environmental Simulation Laboratory (ESL) at UW. The ESL was specifically designed and constructed so that a large range of climatic conditions could be physically applied to the processed oil shale which was placed in the lysimeter cells. This report discusses and summarizes results from scientific efforts conducted between October 1991 and September 1992 for Fiscal Year 1992.

  13. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions. Fourth quarterly report, July--September 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Turner, J.P.; Hasfurther, V.

    1993-10-08

    The scope of the research program and the continuation is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large scale research sufficient to describe commercial scale embankment behavior. The large scale approach was accomplished by establishing five lysimeters, each 7.3 {times} 3.0 {times} 3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process. Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by Rio Blanco Oil Shale Co., Inc. (RBOSC) through a separate cooperative agreement with the University of Wyoming (UW) to carry out this study. Three of the lysimeters were established at the RBOSC Tract C-a in the Piceance Basin of Colorado. Two lysimeters were established in the Environmental Simulation Laboratory (ESL) at UW. The ESL was specifically designed and constructed so that a large range of climatic conditions could be physically applied to the processed oil shale which was filled in the lysimeter cells.

  14. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions. Second quarterly report, January 1, 1992--March 31, 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Turner, J.P.; Hasfurther, V.

    1992-05-04

    The scope of the research program and the continuation is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large scale research sufficient to describe commercial scale embankment behavior. The large scale approach was accomplished by establishing five lysimeters, each 7.3 {times} 3.0 {times} 3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process. Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by Rio Blanco Oil Shale Co., Inc. (RBOSC) through a separate cooperative agreement with the University of Wyoming (UW) to carry out this study. Three of the lysimeters were established at the RBOSC Tract C-a in the Piceance Basin of Colorado. Two lysimeters were established in the Environmental Simulation Laboratory (ESL) at UW. The ESL was specifically designed and constructed so that a large range of climatic conditions could be physically applied to the processed oil shale which was filled in the lysimeter cells.

  15. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions. Final report, November 1995

    SciTech Connect

    1995-12-31

    A study is described on the hydrological and geotechnical behavior of an oil shale solid waste. The objective was to obtain information which can be used to assess the environmental impacts of oil shale solid waste disposal in the Green River Basin. The spent shale used in this study was combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas process by Rio Blanco Oil Shale Company, Inc. Laboratory bench-scale testing included index properties, such as grain size distribution and Atterberg limits, and tests for engineering properties including hydraulic conductivity and shear strength. Large-scale tests were conducted on model spent shale waste embankments to evaluate hydrological response, including infiltration, runoff, and seepage. Large-scale tests were conducted at a field site in western Colorado and in the Environmental Simulation Laboratory (ESL)at the University of Wyoming. The ESL tests allowed the investigators to control rainfall and temperature, providing information on the hydrological response of spent shale under simulated severe climatic conditions. All experimental methods, materials, facilities, and instrumentation are described in detail, and results are given and discussed. 34 refs.

  16. Rhizobium-Legume Symbiosis and Nitrogen Fixation under Severe Conditions and in an Arid Climate

    PubMed Central

    Zahran, Hamdi Hussein

    1999-01-01

    Biological N2 fixation represents the major source of N input in agricultural soils including those in arid regions. The major N2-fixing systems are the symbiotic systems, which can play a significant role in improving the fertility and productivity of low-N soils. The Rhizobium-legume symbioses have received most attention and have been examined extensively. The behavior of some N2-fixing systems under severe environmental conditions such as salt stress, drought stress, acidity, alkalinity, nutrient deficiency, fertilizers, heavy metals, and pesticides is reviewed. These major stress factors suppress the growth and symbiotic characteristics of most rhizobia; however, several strains, distributed among various species of rhizobia, are tolerant to stress effects. Some strains of rhizobia form effective (N2-fixing) symbioses with their host legumes under salt, heat, and acid stresses, and can sometimes do so under the effect of heavy metals. Reclamation and improvement of the fertility of arid lands by application of organic (manure and sewage sludge) and inorganic (synthetic) fertilizers are expensive and can be a source of pollution. The Rhizobium-legume (herb or tree) symbiosis is suggested to be the ideal solution to the improvement of soil fertility and the rehabilitation of arid lands and is an important direction for future research. PMID:10585971

  17. E-O Propagation, Signature and System Performance Under Adverse Meteorological Conditions Considering Out-of-Area Operations (La Propagation, la Signature et les performances des Systemes optroniques dans des Conditions Meteorologiques Defavorables, compte Tenu des Operations hors Zone)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1998-09-01

    la temnp~ature tinctes. 11 y a donc d~doublement ; on parle encore d’une thermodynamique T (en K) et A l’humidit6 sp~cifique q zone de mirage. (en kg...A4pour les conditions de stratification CHN =-10-3 et CEN =1,2-10-3 (13) instable. Les variables thermodynamiques utilis~es sont La determination de z

  18. Assessing the impacts of climate change in Mediterranean catchments under conditions of data scarcity - The Gaza case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gampe, David; Ludwig, Ralf

    2013-04-01

    According to current climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. While there is scientific consensus that climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean regions are presently occurring and are projected to amplify in the future, very little knowledge is available about the quantification of these changes, which is hampered by a lack of suitable and cost effective hydrological monitoring and modeling systems. The European FP7-project CLIMB is aiming to analyze climate induced changes on the hydrology of the Mediterranean Basins by investigating seven test sites located in the countries Italy, France, Turkey, Tunisia, Gaza and Egypt. CLIMB employs a combination of novel geophysical field monitoring concepts, remote sensing techniques and integrated hydrologic modeling to improve process descriptions and understanding and to quantify existing uncertainties in climate change impact analysis. One of those seven sites is the Gaza Strip, located in the Eastern Mediterranean and part of the Palestinian Autonomous Area, covers an area of 365km² with a length of 35km and 6 to 12km in width. Elevation ranges from sea level up to 104m in the East of the test site. Mean annual precipitation varies from 235mm in the South to 420mm in the North of the area. The inter annual variability of rainfall and the rapid population growth in an highly agricultural used area represent the major challenges in this area. The physically based Water Simulation Model WaSiM Vers. 2 (Schulla & Jasper (1999)) is setup to model current and projected future hydrological conditions. The availability of measured meteorological and hydrological data is poor as common to many Mediterranean catchments. The lack of available measured input data hampers the calibration of the model setup and the validation of model outputs. WaSiM was driven with meteorological forcing taken from 4

  19. Spirituality and Aging in Place: The Impact of Extreme Climatic Conditions on Domestic Gardening Practice.

    PubMed

    Adams, Joanne; Pascal, Jan; Dickson-Swift, Virginia

    2014-12-01

    There is limited research exploring how domestic water restrictions imposed as a result of drought conditions impact upon the lives of independently living older people. Within this age group (60 years plus), the domestic garden frequently forms an intrinsic component of ongoing health and well-being. Gardening practice offers components of both mental and physical activity and, for many older people, leads to emotional and spiritual connection on a number of levels. The capacity of older people to maintain a garden during a period of water restrictions is greatly reduced, and the resulting impact on health and well-being is considerable. A recent study, conducted in south-eastern Australia, aimed to determine the benefits to health and well-being of maintaining a domestic garden for older people and the impact of water restrictions on garden practice. This occurred at a time following a prolonged period of drought and, in central Victoria, a complete ban on outside watering. In-depth qualitative interviews were conducted with 10 gardeners aged between 60 and 83 who had tended their garden over an extended period. The lived experience of gardening was explored through hermeneutic phenomenological analysis. Clear benefits to health and well-being were establis