Science.gov

Sample records for adverse climatic conditions

  1. Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Mosedale, Jonathan R.; Wilson, Robert J.; Maclean, Ilya M. D.

    2015-01-01

    The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions. PMID:26496127

  2. Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions.

    PubMed

    Mosedale, Jonathan R; Wilson, Robert J; Maclean, Ilya M D

    2015-01-01

    The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.

  3. Effect of exposure to adverse climatic conditions on production in Manchega dairy sheep.

    PubMed

    Ramón, M; Díaz, C; Pérez-Guzman, M D; Carabaño, M J

    2016-07-01

    The present study aimed to examine the effects of exposure to adverse weather conditions on milk production to assess the thermotolerance capability of the Manchega breed, a dairy sheep reared in the Mediterranean area, and the extent of decline in production outside the thermal comfort zone. To achieve this purpose, we merged data from the official milk recording of the breed with weather information and used to describe the cold and heat stress response for production traits. Production data consisted of 1,094,804 test-day records from the first 3 lactations of 177,605 ewes gathered between years 2000 to 2010. For each production trait and climate variable, the thermal load production response was characterized by the estimation of cold and heat stress thresholds that define a thermoneutral zone and the slopes of production decay outside this thermoneutral zone. Overall, we observed a comfort region between 10 and 22°C for daily average temperature, 18 and 30°C for daily maximum temperature, and from 9 to 18 units for a temperature-humidity index (THI) for all traits. Decline in production due to cold stress effects was of a greater magnitude than heat stress effects, especially for milk yield. Production losses ranged between 7 and 16 and from 0.2 to 0.6g/d per °C (or THI unit) for milk and for fat and protein yields, respectively. For heat stress, the observed decline in production was of 1 to 5 and 0.1 to 0.3g/d per °C (or THI unit) above the threshold for milk yield and for fat and protein yields, respectively. Highly productive animals showed a narrower comfort zone and higher slopes of decay. The study of lagged effects of thermal load showed how consequences of cold and heat stress are already visible in the first hours after exposure. Thus, production losses were due mainly to climate conditions on the day of control and the day before, with conditions on the previous days having a smaller effect. Annual economic losses due to thermal (cold and heat

  4. Effect of exposure to adverse climatic conditions on production in Manchega dairy sheep.

    PubMed

    Ramón, M; Díaz, C; Pérez-Guzman, M D; Carabaño, M J

    2016-07-01

    The present study aimed to examine the effects of exposure to adverse weather conditions on milk production to assess the thermotolerance capability of the Manchega breed, a dairy sheep reared in the Mediterranean area, and the extent of decline in production outside the thermal comfort zone. To achieve this purpose, we merged data from the official milk recording of the breed with weather information and used to describe the cold and heat stress response for production traits. Production data consisted of 1,094,804 test-day records from the first 3 lactations of 177,605 ewes gathered between years 2000 to 2010. For each production trait and climate variable, the thermal load production response was characterized by the estimation of cold and heat stress thresholds that define a thermoneutral zone and the slopes of production decay outside this thermoneutral zone. Overall, we observed a comfort region between 10 and 22°C for daily average temperature, 18 and 30°C for daily maximum temperature, and from 9 to 18 units for a temperature-humidity index (THI) for all traits. Decline in production due to cold stress effects was of a greater magnitude than heat stress effects, especially for milk yield. Production losses ranged between 7 and 16 and from 0.2 to 0.6g/d per °C (or THI unit) for milk and for fat and protein yields, respectively. For heat stress, the observed decline in production was of 1 to 5 and 0.1 to 0.3g/d per °C (or THI unit) above the threshold for milk yield and for fat and protein yields, respectively. Highly productive animals showed a narrower comfort zone and higher slopes of decay. The study of lagged effects of thermal load showed how consequences of cold and heat stress are already visible in the first hours after exposure. Thus, production losses were due mainly to climate conditions on the day of control and the day before, with conditions on the previous days having a smaller effect. Annual economic losses due to thermal (cold and heat

  5. HEPA Filter Performance under Adverse Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Parsons, Michael; Hogancamp, Kristina; Alderman, Steven; Waggoner, Charles

    2007-07-01

    This study involved challenging nuclear grade high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters under a variety of conditions that can arise in Department of Energy (DOE) applications such as: low or high RH, controlled and uncontrolled challenge, and filters with physically damaged media or seals (i.e., leaks). Reported findings correlate filter function as measured by traditional differential pressure techniques in comparison with simultaneous instrumental determination of up and down stream PM concentrations. Additionally, emission rates and failure signatures will be discussed for filters that have either failed or exceeded their usable lifetime. Significant findings from this effort include the use of thermocouples up and down stream of the filter housing to detect the presence of moisture. Also demonstrated in the moisture challenge series of tests is the effect of repeated wetting of the filter. This produces a phenomenon referred to as transient failure before the tensile strength of the media weakens to the point of physical failure. An evaluation of the effect of particle size distribution of the challenge aerosol on loading capacity of filters is also included. Results for soot and two size distributions of KCl are reported. Loading capacities for filters ranged from approximately 70 g of soot to nearly 900 g for the larger particle size distribution of KCl. (authors)

  6. Developing robust crop plants for sustaining growth and yield under adverse climatic changes

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Agricultural production and quality are expected to suffer from adverse changes in climatic conditions, including global warming, and this will affect worldwide human and animal food security. Global warming has been shown to negatively impact crop yield and therefore will affect sustainability of a...

  7. Management of Cattle Exposed to Adverse Environmental Conditions.

    PubMed

    Mader, Terry L; Griffin, Dee

    2015-07-01

    During periods of adverse weather, optimum conditions for animal comfort and performance are compromised. Use of alternative supplementation programs need to be considered for livestock challenged by adverse environmental conditions. Use of additional water for consumption and cooling, shade, and/or alternative management strategies need to be considered to help livestock cope with heat stress. For animals reared outside during winter, strategies that increase animal space and environmental buffers need to be used to minimize effects of mud, wet conditions, and windchill. There are ample opportunities for livestock producers to enhance animal welfare and minimize the impact of environmental stress.

  8. Management of Cattle Exposed to Adverse Environmental Conditions.

    PubMed

    Mader, Terry L; Griffin, Dee

    2015-07-01

    During periods of adverse weather, optimum conditions for animal comfort and performance are compromised. Use of alternative supplementation programs need to be considered for livestock challenged by adverse environmental conditions. Use of additional water for consumption and cooling, shade, and/or alternative management strategies need to be considered to help livestock cope with heat stress. For animals reared outside during winter, strategies that increase animal space and environmental buffers need to be used to minimize effects of mud, wet conditions, and windchill. There are ample opportunities for livestock producers to enhance animal welfare and minimize the impact of environmental stress. PMID:26139190

  9. Word Learning under Adverse Listening Conditions: Context-Specific Recognition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Creel, Sarah C.; Aslin, Richard N.; Tanenhaus, Michael K.

    2012-01-01

    Previous studies of word learning have presented the items to listeners under ideal conditions. Here we ask how listeners learn new vocabulary items under adverse listening conditions. Would listeners form acoustically-specific representations that incorporated the noise, base their representations on noise-free language knowledge, or both? To…

  10. Systematic review on adverse birth outcomes of climate change

    PubMed Central

    Poursafa, Parinaz; Keikha, Mojtaba; Kelishadi, Roya

    2015-01-01

    Background: Climate change and global warming have significant effects on human health. This systematic review presents the effects of the climate changes on pregnancy outcomes. Materials and Methods: The search process was conducted in electronic databases including ISI Web of Knowledge, PubMed, Scopus, and Google Scholar using key words of “environmental temperature” “pregnancy” “low birth weight (LBW)” “pregnancy outcome,” “climate change,” “preterm birth (PTB),” and a combination of them. We did not consider any time limitation; English-language papers were included. The related papers were selected in three phases. After quality assessment, two reviewers extracted the data while the third reviewer checked their extracted data. Finally, 15 related articles were selected and included in the current study. Results: Approximately all studies have reported a significant relationship between exposure variable and intended outcomes including eclampsia, preeclampsia, cataract, LBW, PTB, hypertension, sex ratio and length of pregnancy. According to conducted studies, decrease in birth weight is more possible in cold months. Increase in temperature was followed by increase in PTB rate. According to most of the studies, eclampsia and preeclampsia were more prevalent in cold and humid seasons. Two spectrums of heat extent, different seasons of the year, sunlight intensity and season of fertilization were associated with higher rates of PTB, hypertension, eclampsia, preeclampsia, and cataract. Conclusion: Climate change has unfavorable effects on eclampsia, preeclampsia, PTB, and cataract. The findings of this review confirm the crucial importance of the adverse health effects of climate change especially in the perinatal period. PMID:26109998

  11. Climatic Conditions in Classrooms.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kevan, Simon M.; Howes, John D.

    1980-01-01

    Presents an overview of research on the ways in which classroom thermal environment, lighting conditions, ion state, and electromagnetic and air pollution affect learning and the performance of students and teachers. (SJL)

  12. Quality of whey powders stored under adverse conditions

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Whey protein concentrate powder (WPC) is exported by the U.S. and is included in emergency aid foods, but the bags sent overseas are usually stored without refrigeration and under elevated temperature and relative humidity (RH). The shelf life of WPC under adverse conditions must be known to preven...

  13. Telling Stories: Sustaining Improvement in Schools Operating under Adverse Conditions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hayes, Debra

    2006-01-01

    We know what good schools look like but experience tells us that it is very difficult to create and maintain them, especially when they are operating under adverse conditions-constant change, limited resources, high staff and student turnover, and a concentration of first time leaders and beginning teachers. The "Changing Schools in Changing Times…

  14. Uncertainty Comparison of Visual Sensing in Adverse Weather Conditions.

    PubMed

    Lo, Shi-Wei; Wu, Jyh-Horng; Chen, Lun-Chi; Tseng, Chien-Hao; Lin, Fang-Pang; Hsu, Ching-Han

    2016-01-01

    This paper focuses on flood-region detection using monitoring images. However, adverse weather affects the outcome of image segmentation methods. In this paper, we present an experimental comparison of an outdoor visual sensing system using region-growing methods with two different growing rules-namely, GrowCut and RegGro. For each growing rule, several tests on adverse weather and lens-stained scenes were performed, taking into account and analyzing different weather conditions with the outdoor visual sensing system. The influence of several weather conditions was analyzed, highlighting their effect on the outdoor visual sensing system with different growing rules. Furthermore, experimental errors and uncertainties obtained with the growing rules were compared. The segmentation accuracy of flood regions yielded by the GrowCut, RegGro, and hybrid methods was 75%, 85%, and 87.7%, respectively. PMID:27447642

  15. Adverse environmental conditions influence age-related innate immune responsiveness

    PubMed Central

    May, Linda; van den Biggelaar, Anita HJ; van Bodegom, David; Meij, Hans J; de Craen, Anton JM; Amankwa, Joseph; Frölich, Marijke; Kuningas, Maris; Westendorp, Rudi GJ

    2009-01-01

    Background- The innate immune system plays an important role in the recognition and induction of protective responses against infectious pathogens, whilst there is increasing evidence for a role in mediating chronic inflammatory diseases at older age. Despite indications that environmental conditions can influence the senescence process of the adaptive immune system, it is not known whether the same holds true for the innate immune system. Therefore we studied whether age-related innate immune responses are similar or differ between populations living under very diverse environmental conditions. Methods- We compared cross-sectional age-related changes in ex vivo innate cytokine responses in a population living under affluent conditions in the Netherlands (age 20–68 years old, n = 304) and a population living under adverse environmental conditions in Ghana (age 23–95 years old, n = 562). Results- We found a significant decrease in LPS-induced Interleukin (IL)-10 and Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF) production with age in the Dutch population. In Ghana a similar age-related decline in IL-10 responses to LPS, as well as to zymosan, or LPS plus zymosan, was observed. TNF production, however, did not show an age-associated decline, but increased significantly with age in response to co-stimulation with LPS and zymosan. Conclusion- We conclude that the decline in innate cytokine responses is an intrinsic ageing phenomenon, while pathogen exposure and/or selective survival drive pro-inflammatory responses under adverse living conditions. PMID:19480711

  16. Mitigating the Adverse Association of Transportation and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snow, M. M.; Snow, R. K.

    2008-05-01

    The transportation sector consumes more than two-thirds of oil supplies in the U.S. each year and accounts for approximately one-third of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions. A draft of the Fourth U.S. Climate Action Report states that the current U.S. climate policy will culminate in the emission of 9.2 billion tons of greenhouse gases in 2020, which represents a 19 percent increase from 2000 levels. These higher levels of greenhouse gases contribute to rising temperatures while causing numerous transportation problems as abnormally hot days become more frequent and extreme. Asphalt roadways are subjected to softening while concrete highways undergo joint buckling creating hazardous conditions for motorists. Railroads tend to warp and buckle during significant heat events sometimes causing train derailments. Airports experiencing extreme temperatures are more likely to undergo high-density altitude conditions, which affect aircraft engine performance causing reduced lift, longer takeoff rolls, and runway closures. Increasing temperatures also have numerous indirect impacts on transportation and the associated infrastructure. Sea levels are projected to continue rising at an accelerated pace accompanied by higher storm surges and flooding. Consequently, seaports along with the connecting roadway and railway facilities will likely be inundated. Likewise, airports located along coasts are at risk of diminished operations due to rising waters and might require expensive protection measures in the near future. In light of such impacts and the finite supply of oil, myriad players in the transportation industry are researching conservation measures and alternative energy as well as the development of infrastructure and attitudes that promote emission reductions. This research examines a variety of practical and feasible solutions to decreasing greenhouse gases within the transportation sector based on the notion that as a result, new jobs would be created, billions of dollars

  17. Hierarchically nanotextured surfaces maintaining superhydrophobicity under severely adverse conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maitra, Tanmoy; Antonini, Carlo; Auf der Mauer, Matthias; Stamatopoulos, Christos; Tiwari, Manish K.; Poulikakos, Dimos

    2014-07-01

    Superhydrophobic surfaces are highly desirable for a broad range of technologies and products affecting everyday life. Despite significant progress in recent years in understanding the principles of hydrophobicity, mostly inspired by surface designs found in nature, many man-made surfaces employ readily processable materials, ideal to demonstrate principles, but with little chance of survivability outside a very limited range of well-controlled environments. Here we focus on the rational development of robust, hierarchically nanostructured, environmentally friendly, metal-based (aluminum) superhydrophobic surfaces, which maintain their performance under severely adverse conditions. Based on their functionality, we superpose selected hydrophobic layers (i.e. self-assembled monolayers, thin films, or nanofibrous coatings) on hierarchically textured aluminum surfaces, collectively imparting high level robustness of superhydrophobicity under adverse conditions. These surfaces simultaneously exhibit chemical stability, mechanical durability and droplet impalement resistance. They impressively maintained their superhydrophobicity after exposure to severely adverse chemical environments like strong alkaline (pH ~ 9-10), acidic (pH ~ 2-3), and ionic solutions (3.5 weight% of sodium chloride), and could simultaneously resist water droplet impalement up to an impact velocity of 3.2 m s-1 as well as withstand standard mechanical durability tests.Superhydrophobic surfaces are highly desirable for a broad range of technologies and products affecting everyday life. Despite significant progress in recent years in understanding the principles of hydrophobicity, mostly inspired by surface designs found in nature, many man-made surfaces employ readily processable materials, ideal to demonstrate principles, but with little chance of survivability outside a very limited range of well-controlled environments. Here we focus on the rational development of robust, hierarchically

  18. Do oral health conditions adversely impact young adults?

    PubMed

    Carvalho, Joana C; Mestrinho, Heliana D; Stevens, Sophie; van Wijk, Arjen J

    2015-01-01

    This study assessed the extent to which clinically measured oral health conditions, adjusted for sociodemographic and oral health behavior determinants, impact adversely on the oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL) in a sample of Belgian young adults. The null hypothesis was that, among young adults, the oral health conditions would have no impact on their quality of life. The participants were 611 new patients aged 16-32 years seeking consultation at the Saint-Luc University Hospital in Brussels in 2010-2011. The patients (56.0% female) were examined for their oral health conditions and answered a validated questionnaire about sociodemographic and oral health behavior determinants in addition to questions about their OHRQoL. The abridged Oral Health Impact Profile-14 was used to assess the OHRQoL. Interexaminer reliability for caries was 0.86 (95% CI 0.84-0.89, nonweighted κ). The outcome was a high score on the OHRQoL (median split). Hierarchical logistic regression analysis showed that young adults with clinical absolute D1MFS scores between 9 and 16 (OR = 2.14, p = 0.031) and between 17 and 24 (OR = 3.10, p = 0.003) were significantly more likely to report a high impact on their quality of life than those with lower scores. Also, periodontal conditions compromised significantly (OR = 1.79, p = 0.011) the quality of life of young adults. In conclusion, this study identified oral health conditions with a significant adverse effect on the OHRQoL of young adults. However, the prevalence of young adults reporting impacts on at least 1 performance affected fairly often or very often was limited to 18.7% of the sample. PMID:25832802

  19. Perceptual Learning of Speech under Optimal and Adverse Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Xujin; Samuel, Arthur G.

    2014-01-01

    Humans have a remarkable ability to understand spoken language despite the large amount of variability in speech. Previous research has shown that listeners can use lexical information to guide their interpretation of atypical sounds in speech (Norris, McQueen, & Cutler, 2003). This kind of lexically induced perceptual learning enables people to adjust to the variations in utterances due to talker-specific characteristics, such as individual identity and dialect. The current study investigated perceptual learning in two optimal conditions: conversational speech (Experiment 1) vs. clear speech (Experiment 2), and three adverse conditions: noise (Experiment 3a) vs. two cognitive loads (Experiments 4a & 4b). Perceptual learning occurred in the two optimal conditions and in the two cognitive load conditions, but not in the noise condition. Furthermore, perceptual learning occurred only in the first of two sessions for each participant, and only for atypical /s/ sounds and not for atypical /f/ sounds. This pattern of learning and non-learning reflects a balance between flexibility and stability that the speech system must have to deal with speech variability in the diverse conditions that speech is encountered. PMID:23815478

  20. Risk of Adverse Cognitive or Behavioral Conditions and Psychiatric Disorders

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Slack, Kelley J.; Schneiderman, Jason S.; Leveton, Lauren B.; Whitmire, Alexandra M.; Picano, James J.

    2015-01-01

    The NASA commitment to human space flight includes continuing to fly astronauts on the ISS until it is decommissioned as well as possibly returning astronauts to the moon or having astronauts venture to an asteroid or Mars. As missions leave low Earth orbit and explore deeper space, BHP supports and conducts research to enable a risk posture that considers the risk of adverse cognitive or behavioral conditions and psychiatric disorders “acceptable given mitigations,” for pre-, in, and post-flight.The Human System Risk Board (HSRB) determines the risk of various mission scenarios using a likelihood (per person per year) by consequences matrix examining those risks across two categories—long term health and operational (within mission). Colors from a stoplight signal are used by HSRB and quickly provide a means of assessing overall perceived risk for a particular mission scenario. Risk associated with the current six month missions on the ISS are classified as “accepted with monitoring” while planetary missions, such as a mission to Mars, are recognized to be a “red” risk that requires mitigation to ensure mission success.Currently, the HSRB deems that the risk of adverse cognitive or behavioral conditions and psychiatric outcomes requires mitigation for planetary missions owing to long duration isolation and radiation exposure (see Table 1). While limited research evidence exists from spaceflight, it is well known anecdotally that the shift from the two week shuttle missions to the six month ISS missions renders the psychological stressors of space as more salient over longer duration missions. Shuttle astronauts were expected just to tolerate any stressors that arose during their mission and were successful at doing so (Whitmire et al, 2013). While it is possible to deal with stressors such as social isolation and to live with incompatible crewmembers for two weeks on shuttle, “ignoring it” is much less likely to be a successful coping mechanism

  1. Present weather and climate: evolving conditions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hoerling, Martin P; Dettinger, Michael; Wolter, Klaus; Lukas, Jeff; Eischeid, Jon K.; Nemani, Rama; Liebmann, Brant; Kunkel, Kenneth E.

    2013-01-01

    This chapter assesses weather and climate variability and trends in the Southwest, using observed climate and paleoclimate records. It analyzes the last 100 years of climate variability in comparison to the last 1,000 years, and links the important features of evolving climate conditions to river flow variability in four of the region’s major drainage basins. The chapter closes with an assessment of the monitoring and scientific research needed to increase confidence in understanding when climate episodes, events, and phenomena are attributable to human-caused climate change.

  2. Climate Conditioning for the Learning Environment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perkins and Will, Architects, Chicago, IL.

    Discusses heating, cooling, and ventilation for the classroom in relationship to students' learning abilities. It is designed to assist school boards, administrators, architects and engineers in understanding the beneficial effects of total climate control, and in evaluating the climate conditioning systems available for schools. Discussion…

  3. 75 FR 8353 - Waiver of Filing Deadline Due to Adverse Weather Conditions

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-02-24

    ... COMMISSION Waiver of Filing Deadline Due to Adverse Weather Conditions February 16, 2010. AGENCY: Federal Communications Commission. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: Due to adverse weather conditions, the Federal Communications..., February 11, 2010. In recognition of the numerous closings and disruptions caused by the weather in...

  4. Bill E. Kunkle Interdisciplinary Beef Symposium: Animal welfare concerns for cattle exposed to adverse environmental conditions.

    PubMed

    Mader, T L

    2014-12-01

    reared outside during the winter, strategies that increase animal space and environmental buffers need to be employed to minimize effects of mud, wet conditions, and wind chill. The above-mentioned weather events suggest that there are ample opportunities for livestock producers to enhance animal welfare and minimize impact of environmental stress. Caretakers need a greater understanding of animal responses to weather challenges to help animals cope with adverse climatic conditions.

  5. Bill E. Kunkle Interdisciplinary Beef Symposium: Animal welfare concerns for cattle exposed to adverse environmental conditions.

    PubMed

    Mader, T L

    2014-12-01

    reared outside during the winter, strategies that increase animal space and environmental buffers need to be employed to minimize effects of mud, wet conditions, and wind chill. The above-mentioned weather events suggest that there are ample opportunities for livestock producers to enhance animal welfare and minimize impact of environmental stress. Caretakers need a greater understanding of animal responses to weather challenges to help animals cope with adverse climatic conditions. PMID:25414102

  6. 7 CFR 760.203 - Eligible losses, adverse weather, and other loss conditions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Eligible losses, adverse weather, and other loss... for Livestock, Honeybees, and Farm-Raised Fish Program § 760.203 Eligible losses, adverse weather, and... weather or eligible loss condition, as determined by the Deputy Administrator, (including, but not...

  7. 7 CFR 760.203 - Eligible losses, adverse weather, and other loss conditions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Eligible losses, adverse weather, and other loss... for Livestock, Honeybees, and Farm-Raised Fish Program § 760.203 Eligible losses, adverse weather, and... weather or eligible loss condition, as determined by the Deputy Administrator, (including, but not...

  8. 7 CFR 760.203 - Eligible losses, adverse weather, and other loss conditions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Eligible losses, adverse weather, and other loss... for Livestock, Honeybees, and Farm-Raised Fish Program § 760.203 Eligible losses, adverse weather, and... weather or eligible loss condition, as determined by the Deputy Administrator, (including, but not...

  9. 7 CFR 760.203 - Eligible losses, adverse weather, and other loss conditions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Eligible losses, adverse weather, and other loss... for Livestock, Honeybees, and Farm-Raised Fish Program § 760.203 Eligible losses, adverse weather, and... weather or eligible loss condition, as determined by the Deputy Administrator, (including, but not...

  10. 7 CFR 760.203 - Eligible losses, adverse weather, and other loss conditions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Eligible losses, adverse weather, and other loss... for Livestock, Honeybees, and Farm-Raised Fish Program § 760.203 Eligible losses, adverse weather, and... weather or eligible loss condition, as determined by the Deputy Administrator, (including, but not...

  11. Fluorescence parameters of leaves of trees and shrubs during period of adverse weather conditions in Krasnoyarsk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zavorueva, E. N.; Zavoruev, V. V.

    2015-11-01

    The effect of adverse weather conditions (AWC) on the fluorescence parameters of leaves Prinsepia sinensis, Amelanchier florida, Crataegus chlorocarca is obtained. However, significant changes in the fluorescence of the leaves of Acer negundo, Betula pendula under AWC were not observed.

  12. The role of adverse weather conditions in acute releases of hazardous substances, Texas, 2000-2001.

    PubMed

    Ruckart, Perri Zeitz; Borders, Julie; Villanacci, John; Harris, Richard; Samples-Ruiz, Melissa

    2004-11-11

    High winds, flooding, lightning, and other phenomena associated with adverse weather can cause power failures, equipment damage, and process upsets resulting in chemical releases. Of the 5000 events in Texas that were reported to the Hazardous Substances Emergency Events Surveillance (HSEES) system during 2000-2001, adverse weather conditions contributed to 110 (2%) events. Rain was the most frequent adverse weather condition. Most events to which adverse weather conditions contributed occurred during June or September; these months correspond with the high temperature and hurricane season in Texas. Most events occurred in coastal counties with large numbers of industrial facilities. Three industries reported the majority of events: industrial and miscellaneous chemicals manufacturing; petroleum refining; and plastics, synthetics, and resin manufacturing. Power failures were associated more often with adverse weather-related events than with nonweather-related events. Releases occurred most commonly from ancillary process equipment and process vessels. Events associated with adverse weather-related conditions involved nine victims. System and process design improvements, such as improved backup power generation and redesigned secondary containment systems, could be explored to reduce the potential negative effects of severe weather.

  13. ACCEPT: Introduction of the Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martin, Rodney A.; Santanu, Das; Janakiraman, Vijay Manikandan; Hosein, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    The prediction of anomalies or adverse events is a challenging task, and there are a variety of methods which can be used to address the problem. In this paper, we introduce a generic framework developed in MATLAB (sup registered mark) called ACCEPT (Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox). ACCEPT is an architectural framework designed to compare and contrast the performance of a variety of machine learning and early warning algorithms, and tests the capability of these algorithms to robustly predict the onset of adverse events in any time-series data generating systems or processes.

  14. Health Monitoring and Management for Manufacturing Workers in Adverse Working Conditions.

    PubMed

    Xu, Xiaoya; Zhong, Miao; Wan, Jiafu; Yi, Minglun; Gao, Tiancheng

    2016-10-01

    In adverse working conditions, environmental parameters such as metallic dust, noise, and environmental temperature, directly affect the health condition of manufacturing workers. It is therefore important to implement health monitoring and management based on important physiological parameters (e.g., heart rate, blood pressure, and body temperature). In recent years, new technologies, such as body area networks, cloud computing, and smart clothing, have allowed the improvement of the quality of services. In this article, we first give five-layer architecture for health monitoring and management of manufacturing workers. Then, we analyze the system implementation process, including environmental data processing, physical condition monitoring and system services and management, and present the corresponding algorithms. Finally, we carry out an evaluation and analysis from the perspective of insurance and compensation for manufacturing workers in adverse working conditions. The proposed scheme will contribute to the improvement of workplace conditions, realize health monitoring and management, and protect the interests of manufacturing workers. PMID:27624491

  15. Health Monitoring and Management for Manufacturing Workers in Adverse Working Conditions.

    PubMed

    Xu, Xiaoya; Zhong, Miao; Wan, Jiafu; Yi, Minglun; Gao, Tiancheng

    2016-10-01

    In adverse working conditions, environmental parameters such as metallic dust, noise, and environmental temperature, directly affect the health condition of manufacturing workers. It is therefore important to implement health monitoring and management based on important physiological parameters (e.g., heart rate, blood pressure, and body temperature). In recent years, new technologies, such as body area networks, cloud computing, and smart clothing, have allowed the improvement of the quality of services. In this article, we first give five-layer architecture for health monitoring and management of manufacturing workers. Then, we analyze the system implementation process, including environmental data processing, physical condition monitoring and system services and management, and present the corresponding algorithms. Finally, we carry out an evaluation and analysis from the perspective of insurance and compensation for manufacturing workers in adverse working conditions. The proposed scheme will contribute to the improvement of workplace conditions, realize health monitoring and management, and protect the interests of manufacturing workers.

  16. Comprehension of Familiar and Unfamiliar Native Accents under Adverse Listening Conditions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Adank, Patti; Evans, Bronwen G.; Stuart-Smith, Jane; Scott, Sophie K.

    2009-01-01

    This study aimed to determine the relative processing cost associated with comprehension of an unfamiliar native accent under adverse listening conditions. Two sentence verification experiments were conducted in which listeners heard sentences at various signal-to-noise ratios. In Experiment 1, these sentences were spoken in a familiar or an…

  17. Adverse Pregnancy Conditions, Infertility, and Future Cardiovascular Risk: Implications for Mother and Child

    PubMed Central

    Park, Ki; Wei, Janet; Minissian, Margo; Merz, C. Noel Bairey

    2016-01-01

    Adverse pregnancy conditions in women are common and have been associated with adverse cardiovascular and metabolic outcomes such as myocardial infarction and stroke. As risk stratification in women is often suboptimal, recognition of non-traditional risk factors such as hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and premature delivery has become increasingly important. Additionally, such conditions may also increase the risk of cardiovascular disease in the children of afflicted women. In this review, we aim to highlight these conditions, along with infertility, and the association between such conditions and various cardiovascular outcomes and related maternal risk along with potential translation of risk to offspring. We will also discuss proposed mechanisms driving these associations as well as potential opportunities for screening and risk modification. PMID:26037616

  18. Adverse Housing and Neighborhood Conditions and Inflammatory Markers among Middle-Aged African Americans

    PubMed Central

    Andresen, Elena M.; Wolinsky, Fredric D.; Malmstrom, Theodore K.; Morley, John E.; Miller, Douglas K.

    2010-01-01

    Adverse housing and neighborhood conditions are independently associated with an increased risk of various diseases and conditions. One possible explanation relates to systemic inflammation, which is associated with these adverse health outcomes. The authors investigated the association between housing and neighborhood conditions with inflammatory markers using data about 352 persons aged 49–65 years from the African American Health study. Participants were identified by a multistage random selection process in 2000 to 2001(response rate, 76%). Blood was analyzed for soluble cytokine receptors (interleukin-6, tumor necrosis factor α), C-reactive protein, and adiponectin. Neighborhood and housing characteristics consisted of five observed block face conditions (external appearance of the block on which the subject lived), four perceived neighborhood conditions, four observed housing conditions (home assessment by the interviewers rating the interior and exterior of the subject’s building), and census-tract level poverty rate from the 2000 census. Differences in some inflammatory markers were found by age, gender, chronic conditions, and body mass index (all Bonferroni-adjusted p < 0.0034). There was no association between any of the housing/neighborhood conditions and the pro-inflammatory markers and potential associations between some housing/neighborhood conditions and adiponectin (p < 0.05, Bonferroni-adjusted p > 0.0034). Inflammation does not appear to be a mediator of the association between poor housing/neighborhood conditions and adverse health outcomes in middle-aged African Americans. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11524-009-9426-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. PMID:20186494

  19. Causal Factors and Adverse Conditions of Aviation Accidents and Incidents Related to Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reveley, Mary S.; Briggs, Jeffrey L.; Evans, Joni K.; Sandifer, Carl E.; Jones, Sharon Monica

    2010-01-01

    The causal factors of accidents from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) database and incidents from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) database associated with loss of control (LOC) were examined for four types of operations (i.e., Federal Aviation Regulation Part 121, Part 135 Scheduled, Part 135 Nonscheduled, and Part 91) for the years 1988 to 2004. In-flight LOC is a serious aviation problem. Well over half of the LOC accidents included at least one fatality (80 percent in Part 121), and roughly half of all aviation fatalities in the studied time period occurred in conjunction with LOC. An adverse events table was updated to provide focus to the technology validation strategy of the Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC) Project. The table contains three types of adverse conditions: failure, damage, and upset. Thirteen different adverse condition subtypes were gleaned from the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS), the FAA Accident and Incident database, and the NTSB database. The severity and frequency of the damage conditions, initial test conditions, and milestones references are also provided.

  20. Assessment of the State of the Art of Flight Control Technologies as Applicable to Adverse Conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reveley, Mary s.; Briggs, Jeffrey L.; Leone, Karen M.; Kurtoglu, Tolga; Withrow, Colleen A.

    2010-01-01

    Literature from academia, industry, and other Government agencies was surveyed to assess the state of the art in current Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC) aircraft technologies. Over 100 papers from 25 conferences from the time period 2004 to 2009 were reviewed. An assessment of the general state of the art in adaptive flight control is summarized first, followed by an assessment of the state of the art as applicable to 13 identified adverse conditions. Specific areas addressed in the general assessment include flight control when compensating for damage or reduced performance, retrofit software upgrades to flight controllers, flight control through engine response, and finally test and validation of new adaptive controllers. The state-of-the-art assessment applicable to the adverse conditions include technologies not specifically related to flight control, but may serve as inputs to a future flight control algorithm. This study illustrates existing gaps and opportunities for additional research by the NASA IRAC Project

  1. Early Life Conditions, Adverse Life Events, and Chewing Ability at Middle and Later Adulthood

    PubMed Central

    Watt, Richard G.; Tsakos, Georgios

    2014-01-01

    Objectives. We sought to determine the extent to which early life conditions and adverse life events impact chewing ability in middle and later adulthood. Methods. Secondary analyses were conducted based on data from waves 2 and 3 of the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), collected in the years 2006 to 2009 and encompassing information on current chewing ability and the life history of persons aged 50 years or older from 13 European countries. Logistic regression models were estimated with sequential inclusion of explanatory variables representing living conditions in childhood and adverse life events. Results. After controlling for current determinants of chewing ability at age 50 years or older, certain childhood and later life course socioeconomic, behavioral, and cognitive factors became evident as correlates of chewing ability at age 50 years or older. Specifically, childhood financial hardship was identified as an early life predictor of chewing ability at age 50 years or older (odds ratio = 1.58; 95% confidence interval = 1.22, 2.06). Conclusions. Findings suggest a potential enduring impact of early life conditions and adverse life events on oral health in middle and later adulthood and are relevant for public health decision-makers who design strategies for optimal oral health. PMID:24625140

  2. Algorithms for contours depicting static electric fields during adverse weather conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rompala, John T.

    1991-01-01

    A flexible and functional analytical tool is developed for the study of electric fields during adverse weather conditions. This tool is designed for use by members of the Atmospheric Science Group as part of their overall effort to appraise environmental conditions during these situations. It is also used to illustrate approaches open to those interested in the study of the physics of ambient electric field phenomena. Computer resources of KSC are coordinated with original software to produce contour interpretations of electric field data available from a grid of field mills spanning the region. Three model algorithms are presented and examples are given illustrating the system design, flexibility, and utility.

  3. Some effects of adverse weather conditions on performance of airplane antiskid braking systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Horne, W. B.; Mccarty, J. L.; Tanner, J. A.

    1976-01-01

    The performance of current antiskid braking systems operating under adverse weather conditions was analyzed in an effort to both identify the causes of locked-wheel skids which sometimes occur when the runway is slippery and to find possible solutions to this operational problem. This analysis was made possible by the quantitative test data provided by recently completed landing research programs using fully instrumented flight test airplanes and was further supported by tests performed at the Langley aircraft landing loads and traction facility. The antiskid system logic for brake control and for both touchdown and locked-wheel protection is described and its response behavior in adverse weather is discussed in detail with the aid of available data. The analysis indicates that the operational performance of the antiskid logic circuits is highly dependent upon wheel spin-up acceleration and can be adversely affected by certain pilot braking inputs when accelerations are low. Normal antiskid performance is assured if the tire-to-runway traction is sufficient to provide high wheel spin-up accelerations or if the system is provided a continuous, accurate ground speed reference. The design of antiskid systems is complicated by the necessity for tradeoffs between tire braking and cornering capabilities, both of which are necessary to provide safe operations in the presence of cross winds, particularly under slippery runway conditions.

  4. Risk of Adverse Cognitive or Behavioral Conditions and Psychiatric Disorders: Evidence Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Slack, Kelley J.; Williams, Thomas J.; Schneiderman, Jason S.; Whitmire, Alexandra M.; Picano, James J.; Leveton, Lauren B.; Schmidt, Lacey L.; Shea, Camille

    2016-01-01

    In April 2010, President Obama declared a space pioneering goal for the United States in general and NASA in particular. "Fifty years after the creation of NASA, our goal is no longer just a destination to reach. Our goal is the capacity for people to work and learn and operate and live safely beyond the Earth for extended periods of time, ultimately in ways that are more sustainable and even indefinite." Thus NASA's Strategic Objective 1.1 emerged as "expand human presence into the solar system and to the surface of Mars to advance exploration, science, innovation, benefits to humanity, and international collaboration" (NASA 2015b). Any space flight, be it of long or short duration, occurs in an extreme environment that has unique stressors. Even with excellent selection methods, the potential for behavioral problems among space flight crews remain a threat to mission success. Assessment of factors that are related to behavioral health can help minimize the chances of distress and, thus, reduce the likelihood of adverse cognitive or behavioral conditions and psychiatric disorders arising within a crew. Similarly, countermeasures that focus on prevention and treatment can mitigate the cognitive or behavioral conditions that, should they arise, would impact mission success. Given the general consensus that longer duration, isolation, and confined missions have a greater risk for behavioral health ensuring crew behavioral health over the long term is essential. Risk, which within the context of this report is assessed with respect to behavioral health and performance, is addressed to deter development of cognitive and behavioral degradations or psychiatric conditions in space flight and analog populations, and to monitor, detect, and treat early risk factors, predictors and other contributing factors. Based on space flight and analog evidence, the average incidence rate of an adverse behavioral health event occurring during a space mission is relatively low for the

  5. Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species.

    PubMed

    Flousek, Jiří; Telenský, Tomáš; Hanzelka, Jan; Reif, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is among the most important global threats to biodiversity and mountain areas are supposed to be under especially high pressure. Although recent modelling studies suggest considerable future range contractions of montane species accompanied with increased extinction risk, data allowing to test actual population consequences of the observed climate changes and identifying traits associated to their adverse impacts are very scarce. To fill this knowledge gap, we estimated long-term population trends of montane birds from 1984 to 2011 in a central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains (Krkonoše), where significant warming occurred over this period. We then related the population trends to several species' traits related to the climate change effects. We found that the species breeding in various habitats at higher altitudes had more negative trends than species breeding at lower altitudes. We also found that the species moved upwards as a response to warming climate, and these altitudinal range shifts were associated with more positive population trends at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. Moreover, long-distance migrants declined more than residents or species migrating for shorter distances. Taken together, these results indicate that the climate change, besides other possible environmental changes, already influences populations of montane birds with particularly adverse impacts on high-altitude species such as water pipit (Anthus spinoletta). It is evident that the alpine species, predicted to undergo serious climatically induced range contractions due to warming climate in the future, already started moving along this trajectory.

  6. Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species

    PubMed Central

    Flousek, Jiří; Telenský, Tomáš; Hanzelka, Jan; Reif, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is among the most important global threats to biodiversity and mountain areas are supposed to be under especially high pressure. Although recent modelling studies suggest considerable future range contractions of montane species accompanied with increased extinction risk, data allowing to test actual population consequences of the observed climate changes and identifying traits associated to their adverse impacts are very scarce. To fill this knowledge gap, we estimated long-term population trends of montane birds from 1984 to 2011 in a central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains (Krkonoše), where significant warming occurred over this period. We then related the population trends to several species' traits related to the climate change effects. We found that the species breeding in various habitats at higher altitudes had more negative trends than species breeding at lower altitudes. We also found that the species moved upwards as a response to warming climate, and these altitudinal range shifts were associated with more positive population trends at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. Moreover, long-distance migrants declined more than residents or species migrating for shorter distances. Taken together, these results indicate that the climate change, besides other possible environmental changes, already influences populations of montane birds with particularly adverse impacts on high-altitude species such as water pipit (Anthus spinoletta). It is evident that the alpine species, predicted to undergo serious climatically induced range contractions due to warming climate in the future, already started moving along this trajectory. PMID:26426901

  7. Overland flow connectivity under different climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanoch, Lavee

    2015-04-01

    The effect of climate conditions on overland flow connectivity was investigated in arid (mean annual rainfall 120 mm), semi-arid (mean annual rainfall 280 mm) and sub-humid (mean annual rainfall 620 mm) regions. In each of these regions a hillslope reference plot was established, in which soil properties and hydrological variables were measured. The results show that at the regional scale soil organic matter content and aggregate stability decreased with increasing aridity. Infiltration rate also decreased with aridity but overland flow increased. At the hillslope scale, at each of the regions overland flow decreased with increasing hillslope length which means that overland flow is not continuous and water losses increases with hillslope length. In order to understand the controlling factors of overland flow continuity the spatial distribution of soil properties, vegetation cover and overland flow generation mechanisms were measured along hillslopes. The results show that water contributing (source) patches and water collecting (sink) patches exist along the hillslopes, in accordance with the spatial distribution of shrubs. The conclusion is that overland flow connectivity at the hillslope scale is affected mainly by the size, the density and by the spatial distribution of shrubs. An application for preventing soil erosion in urban areas (parks), along roads and in cultivated areas is that planting vegetation in patches or strips is more efficient than all over the hillslopes.

  8. LEARNING TO BE BAD: ADVERSE SOCIAL CONDITIONS, SOCIAL SCHEMAS, AND CRIME

    PubMed Central

    Simons, Ronald L.; Burt, Callie Harbin

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we develop and test a new approach to explain the link between social factors and individual offending. We argue that seemingly disparate family, peer, and community conditions lead to crime because the lessons communicated by these events are similar and promote social schemas involving a hostile view of people and relationships, a preference for immediate rewards, and a cynical view of conventional norms. Further, we posit that these three schemas are interconnected and combine to form a criminogenic knowledge structure that gives rise to situational interpretations legitimating criminal behavior. Structural equation modeling with a sample of roughly 700 hundred African American teens provided strong support for the model. The findings indicated that persistent exposure to adverse conditions such as community crime, discrimination, harsh parenting, deviant peers and low neighborhood collective efficacy increased commitment to the three social schemas. The three schemas were highly intercorrelated and combined to form a latent construct that strongly predicted increases in crime. Further, in large measure the effect of the various adverse conditions on increases in crime was indirect through their impact on this latent construct. We discuss the extent to which the social schematic model presented in the paper might be used to integrate concepts and findings from several of the major theories of criminal behavior. PMID:21760641

  9. Space shuttle orbit maneuvering engine reusable thrust chamber: Adverse operating conditions test report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tobin, R. D.

    1974-01-01

    Test hardware, facilities, and procedures are described along with results of electrically heated tube and channel tests conducted to determine adverse operating condition limits for convectively cooled chambers typical of Space Shuttle Orbit Manuevering Engine designs. Hot-start tests were conducted with corrosion resistant steel and nickel tubes with both monomethylhydrazine and 50-50 coolants. Helium ingestion, in both bubble and froth form, was studied in tubular test sections. Helium bubble ingestion and burn-out limits in rectangular channels were also investigated.

  10. Speech perception under adverse conditions: insights from behavioral, computational, and neuroscience research

    PubMed Central

    Guediche, Sara; Blumstein, Sheila E.; Fiez, Julie A.; Holt, Lori L.

    2014-01-01

    Adult speech perception reflects the long-term regularities of the native language, but it is also flexible such that it accommodates and adapts to adverse listening conditions and short-term deviations from native-language norms. The purpose of this article is to examine how the broader neuroscience literature can inform and advance research efforts in understanding the neural basis of flexibility and adaptive plasticity in speech perception. Specifically, we highlight the potential role of learning algorithms that rely on prediction error signals and discuss specific neural structures that are likely to contribute to such learning. To this end, we review behavioral studies, computational accounts, and neuroimaging findings related to adaptive plasticity in speech perception. Already, a few studies have alluded to a potential role of these mechanisms in adaptive plasticity in speech perception. Furthermore, we consider research topics in neuroscience that offer insight into how perception can be adaptively tuned to short-term deviations while balancing the need to maintain stability in the perception of learned long-term regularities. Consideration of the application and limitations of these algorithms in characterizing flexible speech perception under adverse conditions promises to inform theoretical models of speech. PMID:24427119

  11. Research on long-range laser active imaging system applied in adverse weather conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gai, Zhi-gang; Liu, Meng-de; Yang, Li; Kabanov, V. V.; Shi, Lei; Zhao, Jie; Chu, Shi-bo; Yang, Jun-xian; Zhou, Yang

    2013-09-01

    A low-light level night vision device or thermal infrared imager belonging to passive imaging system is generally used in daily target detection and identification. But in adverse weather conditions of dark of night, poor atmospheric transmission characteristics or strong backscattering (fog, dust, rain, snow, etc.), even the most sensitive low-light level night vision could not provide enough image resolution for detecting and identifying targets, and the thermal infrared imager is also limited by low temperature contrast. A long-range laser active imaging system, in combination with high-power semiconductor pulsed lasers with collimation technology, receiving objective lens of large diameter, long focal length and narrow viewing angle, high-gain image intensifier CCD (ICCD) camera and range-gated synchronization control technology, is developed for long distance target detection and high resolution imaging in adverse weather conditions. The system composition and operating principle are introduced. The extremely powerful and efficient illuminators with collimation technology are able to deliver uniform beams, which are essential for illuminating targets at a distance and generating high-quality images. The particular receiving objective lens, ICCD camera and range-gated synchronization control technology could reduce strong backscattering signal and improve imaging signal-to-noise ratio. The laboratory and outfield experiments have been done to validate imaging effect and imaging quality. The results show that the minimum resolution is about 3-5cm, 10cm, and greater than 20 cm for target far from 1100m, 4700m, and 6700m respectively in dark of night. Furthermore, the minimum resolution could reach to 10cm and 20cm for target far from 2500m and 4800m respectively and the image is too blurred to accurately identify the target when observing the target far from 7200m in rainy condition.

  12. Cost-sharing, physician utilization, and adverse selection among Medicare beneficiaries with chronic health conditions.

    PubMed

    Hoffman, Geoffrey

    2015-02-01

    Pooled data from the 2007, 2009, and 2011/2012 California Health Interview Surveys were used to compare the number of self-reported annual physician visits among 36,808 Medicare beneficiaries ≥65 in insurance groups with differential cost-sharing. Adjusted for adverse selection and a set of health covariates, Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) only beneficiaries had similar physician utilization compared with HMO enrollees but fewer visits compared with those with supplemental (1.04, p = .001) and Medicaid (1.55, p = .003) coverage. FFS only beneficiaries in very good or excellent health had fewer visits compared with those of similar health status with supplemental (1.30, p = .001) or Medicaid coverage (2.15, p = .002). For subpopulations with several chronic conditions, FFS only beneficiaries also had fewer visits compared with beneficiaries with supplemental or Medicaid coverage. Observed differences in utilization may reflect efficient and necessary physician utilization among those with chronic health needs.

  13. Functions of Nitric Oxide (NO) in Roots during Development and under Adverse Stress Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Corpas, Francisco J.; Barroso, Juan B.

    2015-01-01

    The free radical molecule, nitric oxide (NO), is present in the principal organs of plants, where it plays an important role in a wide range of physiological functions. Root growth and development are highly regulated by both internal and external factors such as nutrient availability, hormones, pattern formation, cell polarity and cell cycle control. The presence of NO in roots has opened up new areas of research on the role of NO, including root architecture, nutrient acquisition, microorganism interactions and the response mechanisms to adverse environmental conditions, among others. Additionally, the exogenous application of NO throughout the roots has the potential to counteract specific damages caused by certain stresses. This review aims to provide an up-to-date perspective on NO functions in the roots of higher plants. PMID:27135326

  14. Determination and representation of electric charge distributions associated with adverse weather conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rompala, John T.

    1992-01-01

    Algorithms are presented for determining the size and location of electric charges which model storm systems and lightning strikes. The analysis utilizes readings from a grid of ground level field mills and geometric constraints on parameters to arrive at a representative set of charges. This set is used to generate three dimensional graphical depictions of the set as well as contour maps of the ground level electrical environment over the grid. The composite, analytic and graphic package is demonstrated and evaluated using controlled input data and archived data from a storm system. The results demonstrate the packages utility as: an operational tool in appraising adverse weather conditions; a research tool in studies of topics such as storm structure, storm dynamics, and lightning; and a tool in designing and evaluating grid systems.

  15. Friction of composite cushion bearings for total knee joint replacements under adverse lubrication conditions.

    PubMed

    Stewart, T; Jin, Z M; Fisher, J

    1997-01-01

    Conventional joint replacements consist of a polished metallic or ceramic component articulating against a layer of polyethylene. Although the friction in the contact between these articulating surfaces is low, polyethylene wear is produced as a result of a boundary/mixed lubrication regime. Wear debris is generated by direct asperity contact, abrasion, adhesion and fatigue, and has been shown to cause adverse tissue reactions which can lead to joint failure. The introduction of soft compliant materials, similar in stiffness to articular cartilage, has shown that with cyclic loading and relative motion between the articulating surfaces typical of normal walking, a fluid film can be maintained through combined entraining and squeeze-film actions, and hence wear can be minimized. For 95 per cent of the time, however, we are not walking but standing still or moving slowly. A pendulum simulator has been used in the present study to investigate the effect of adverse tribological conditions which may lead to fluid film breakdown, such as severe cyclic loading, particularly in the swing phase, reduced sliding velocity, reduced stroke length and start-up after a period of constant loading. Friction of a model composite cushion knee bearing, manufactured from a graded modulus (20-1000 MPa) layer of polyurethane, sliding against a polished metal cylinder has been measured for various lubricants and the results have been analysed using a Stribeck assessment. Severe cyclic loading, decreased sliding velocity and decreased stroke length have been found to limit the degree of fluid entrainment previously allowed during the swing phase of normal walking, thus allowing breakdown of fluid films and elevated levels of friction and surface damage. Soft layer joint replacements must therefore be designed to operate with thick elastohydrodynamic fluid films to provide some degree of protection when tribological conditions become severe, or alternatively incorporate alternative boundary

  16. Friction of composite cushion bearings for total knee joint replacements under adverse lubrication conditions.

    PubMed

    Stewart, T; Jin, Z M; Fisher, J

    1997-01-01

    Conventional joint replacements consist of a polished metallic or ceramic component articulating against a layer of polyethylene. Although the friction in the contact between these articulating surfaces is low, polyethylene wear is produced as a result of a boundary/mixed lubrication regime. Wear debris is generated by direct asperity contact, abrasion, adhesion and fatigue, and has been shown to cause adverse tissue reactions which can lead to joint failure. The introduction of soft compliant materials, similar in stiffness to articular cartilage, has shown that with cyclic loading and relative motion between the articulating surfaces typical of normal walking, a fluid film can be maintained through combined entraining and squeeze-film actions, and hence wear can be minimized. For 95 per cent of the time, however, we are not walking but standing still or moving slowly. A pendulum simulator has been used in the present study to investigate the effect of adverse tribological conditions which may lead to fluid film breakdown, such as severe cyclic loading, particularly in the swing phase, reduced sliding velocity, reduced stroke length and start-up after a period of constant loading. Friction of a model composite cushion knee bearing, manufactured from a graded modulus (20-1000 MPa) layer of polyurethane, sliding against a polished metal cylinder has been measured for various lubricants and the results have been analysed using a Stribeck assessment. Severe cyclic loading, decreased sliding velocity and decreased stroke length have been found to limit the degree of fluid entrainment previously allowed during the swing phase of normal walking, thus allowing breakdown of fluid films and elevated levels of friction and surface damage. Soft layer joint replacements must therefore be designed to operate with thick elastohydrodynamic fluid films to provide some degree of protection when tribological conditions become severe, or alternatively incorporate alternative boundary

  17. Chosen risk level during car-following in adverse weather conditions.

    PubMed

    Hjelkrem, Odd André; Ryeng, Eirin Olaussen

    2016-10-01

    This study examines how precipitation, light conditions and surface conditions affect the drivers' risk perception. An indicator CRI (Chosen Risk Index) is defined, which describes the chosen risk level for drivers in a car-following situation. The dataset contains about 70 000 observations of driver behaviour and weather status on a rural road. Based on the theory of risk homeostasis and an assumption that driving behaviour in situations with daylight, dry road and no precipitation reflects drivers' target level of risk, generalised linear models (GLM) were estimated for cars and trucks separately to reveal the effect of adverse weather conditions on risk perception. The analyses show that both car and truck drivers perceive the highest risk when driving on snow covered roads. For car drivers, a snow covered road in combination with moderate rain or light snow are the factors which lowers the CRI the most. For trucks, snow cover and partially covered roads significantly lowers the CRI, while precipitation did not seem to impose any higher risk. Interaction effects were found for car drivers only.

  18. Chosen risk level during car-following in adverse weather conditions.

    PubMed

    Hjelkrem, Odd André; Ryeng, Eirin Olaussen

    2016-10-01

    This study examines how precipitation, light conditions and surface conditions affect the drivers' risk perception. An indicator CRI (Chosen Risk Index) is defined, which describes the chosen risk level for drivers in a car-following situation. The dataset contains about 70 000 observations of driver behaviour and weather status on a rural road. Based on the theory of risk homeostasis and an assumption that driving behaviour in situations with daylight, dry road and no precipitation reflects drivers' target level of risk, generalised linear models (GLM) were estimated for cars and trucks separately to reveal the effect of adverse weather conditions on risk perception. The analyses show that both car and truck drivers perceive the highest risk when driving on snow covered roads. For car drivers, a snow covered road in combination with moderate rain or light snow are the factors which lowers the CRI the most. For trucks, snow cover and partially covered roads significantly lowers the CRI, while precipitation did not seem to impose any higher risk. Interaction effects were found for car drivers only. PMID:27454867

  19. Adverse childhood experiences and mental health, chronic medical conditions, and development in young children

    PubMed Central

    Kerker, Bonnie D.; Zhang, Jinjin; Nadeem, Erum; Stein, Ruth E. K.; Hurlburt, Michael S.; Heneghan, Amy; Landsverk, John; Horwitz, Sarah McCue

    2015-01-01

    Objective The objective of this study was to determine the relationships between adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and mental health, chronic medical conditions and social development among young children in the child welfare system. Methods This was a cross-sectional study, using a nationally representative sample of children investigated by child welfare (National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being II) from 2008–2009. Our analysis included caregiver interviews and caseworker reports about children age 18–71 months who were not in out-of-home care (N=912). We examined the associations between ACEs and mental health (measured by the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL)), reported chronic medical conditions, and social development (measured by the Vineland Socialization Scale), in bivariate and multivariate analyses. Results Nearly all children (98.1%) were reported to have had an ACE in their lifetime; the average number of ACEs was 3.6. For every additional reported ACE there was a 32% increased odds of having a problem score on the CBCL (Odds Ratio (OR)=1.32, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.14, 1.53), and a 21% increased odds of having a chronic medical condition (OR=1.21, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.40). Among children 36–71 months, for every additional reported ACE there was a 77% increased odds of a low Vineland Socialization score (OR=1.77, 95% CI: 1.12, 2.78). Conclusion and Relevance ACEs were associated with poor early childhood mental health and chronic medical conditions, and, among children age 3–5, social development. Efforts are needed to examine whether providing early intervention to families with multiple stressors mitigates the impact of ACEs on children’s outcomes. PMID:26183001

  20. 30 CFR 285.816 - What must I do if environmental or other conditions adversely affect a cable, pipeline, or facility?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... conditions adversely affect a cable, pipeline, or facility? 285.816 Section 285.816 Mineral Resources BUREAU... other conditions adversely affect a cable, pipeline, or facility? If environmental or other conditions adversely affect a cable, pipeline, or facility so as to endanger the safety or the environment, you...

  1. Climate change and adverse health events: community perceptions from the Tanahu district of Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishra, Shiva Raj; Mani Bhandari, Parash; Issa, Rita; Neupane, Dinesh; Gurung, Swadesh; Khanal, Vishnu

    2015-03-01

    Nepal is a country economically dependent on climate-sensitive industries. It is highly vulnerable to the environmental, social, economic and health impacts of climate change. The objective of this study is to explore community perceptions of climate variability and human health risks. In this letter, we present a cross sectional study conducted between August 2013 and July 2014 in the Tanahu district of Nepal. Our analysis is based on 258 face-to-face interviews with household heads utilizing structured questionnaires. Over half of the respondents (54.7%) had perceived a change in climate, 53.9% had perceived an increase in temperature in the summer and 49.2% had perceived an increase in rainfall during the rainy season. Half of the respondents perceived an increase in the number of diseases during the summer, 46.5% perceived an increase during the rainy season and 48.8% during winter. Only 8.9% of the respondents felt that the government was doing enough to prevent climate change and its impact on their community. Belonging to the Janajati (indigenous) ethnic group, living in a pakki, super-pakki house and belonging to poor or mid-level income were related to higher odds of perceiving climate variability. Illiterates were less likely to perceive climate variability. Respondents living in a pakki house, super-pakki, or those who were poor were more likely to perceive health risks. Illiterates were less likely to perceive health risks.

  2. Energy Partition From Various Climate Conditions And Land Use Types

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Chi-Han; Hsu2, Pang-Chi

    2015-04-01

    Investigating how energy partitions and what factors control energy exchange is critical for better understanding the hydrological cycle, boundary layer dynamics, and land -atmosphere coupling. Climate and land use conditions are the two main factors to control energy partitation. However, previous studies discussed energy partition and factors that controlled Bowen ratio (i.e., ratio of sensible heat flux to latent heat flux) in limited land use types and climate conditions. To provide a more comprehensive analysis over various climate and vegetation types, in this study, we studied eleven different land use types in the eight different climate zones within the United State. The results found out that the Mediterranean climate zone with dry summer season, dry arid (desert) climate zone, and the higher latitude area with severe winter would had higher Bowen ratio, lower precipitation and net radiation. In contrast, the humid climate zones had the lower Bowen ratio, higher net radiation and precipitation. Moreover, the higher Bowen ratio usually happened in the winter or early spring seasons. Regarding land conditions, it is found that soil moistures are the key factor to control Bowen ratio in the drier climate areas. Hence, the grassland and closed shrublands sites have higher Bowen ratio than deciduous broadleaf forests and evergreen needle-leaf forests sites' because of shallower root systems that lack access to the full storage of water in the vadose zone. However, in the humid areas, land use factors, such as stomatal resistance and leaf area, would play an important role in changing latent heat and sensible heat. Based on the tight relationships between Bowen ratio and conditions of climate and land use, we suggest that Bowen ratio could be a useful tool for understanding the potential feedbacks of changes in climate and land use to energy partition and exchange.

  3. Quality-quantity trade-off of human offspring under adverse environmental conditions.

    PubMed

    Meij, J J; van Bodegom, D; Ziem, J B; Amankwa, J; Polderman, A M; Kirkwood, T B L; de Craen, A J M; Zwaan, B J; Westendorp, R G J

    2009-05-01

    A central paradigm in life-history theory is the trade-off between offspring number and quality. Several studies have investigated this trade-off in humans, but data are inconclusive, perhaps because prosperous socio-cultural factors mask the trade-off. Therefore, we studied 2461 offspring groups in an area under adverse conditions in northern Ghana with high fertility and mortality rates. In a linear mixed model controlling for differences in age and tribe of the mother and socioeconomic status, each additional child in the offspring group resulted in a 2.3% (95% CI 1.9-2.6%, P < 0.001) lower proportional survival of the offspring. Furthermore, we made use of the polygamous population structure and compared offspring of co-wives in 388 households, thus controlling for variation in resources between compounds. Here, offspring survival decreased 2.8% (95% CI 2.3-4.0%, P < 0.001) for each increase in offspring number. We interpret these data as an apparent quality-quantity trade-off in human offspring.

  4. Adverse socioeconomic conditions in childhood and cause specific adult mortality: prospective observational study

    PubMed Central

    Smith, George Davey; Hart, Carole; Blane, David; Hole, David

    1998-01-01

    . Mortality from lung cancer, other cancer, and accidents and violence is predominantly influenced by risk factors that are related to social circumstances in adulthood. Key messages Adverse socioeconomic conditions in childhood are associated with mortality in later life Mortality from stroke and stomach cancer is particularly dependent on social circumstances in childhood Mortality from coronary heart disease and respiratory disease is dependent on social circumstances in both adulthood and childhood Mortality from accidents and violence and from lung cancer is mainly dependent on factors acting in adulthood The increases in child poverty seen in Britain and elsewhere over the past 20 years may herald unfavourable future trends in adult health PMID:9603744

  5. Future Risks of Pest Species under Changing Climatic Conditions.

    PubMed

    Biber-Freudenberger, Lisa; Ziemacki, Jasmin; Tonnang, Henri E Z; Borgemeister, Christian

    2016-01-01

    Most agricultural pests are poikilothermic species expected to respond to climate change. Currently, they are a tremendous burden because of the high losses they inflict on crops and livestock. Smallholder farmers in developing countries of Africa are likely to suffer more under these changes than farmers in the developed world because more severe climatic changes are projected in these areas. African countries further have a lower ability to cope with impacts of climate change through the lack of suitable adapted management strategies and financial constraints. In this study we are predicting current and future habitat suitability under changing climatic conditions for Tuta absoluta, Ceratitis cosyra, and Bactrocera invadens, three important insect pests that are common across some parts of Africa and responsible for immense agricultural losses. We use presence records from different sources and bioclimatic variables to predict their habitat suitability using the maximum entropy modelling approach. We find that habitat suitability for B. invadens, C. cosyra and T. absoluta is partially increasing across the continent, especially in those areas already overlapping with or close to most suitable sites under current climate conditions. Assuming a habitat suitability at three different threshold levels we assessed where each species is likely to be present under future climatic conditions and if this is likely to have an impact on productive agricultural areas. Our results can be used by African policy makers, extensionists and farmers for agricultural adaptation measures to cope with the impacts of climate change. PMID:27054718

  6. Future Risks of Pest Species under Changing Climatic Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Biber-Freudenberger, Lisa; Ziemacki, Jasmin; Tonnang, Henri E. Z.; Borgemeister, Christian

    2016-01-01

    Most agricultural pests are poikilothermic species expected to respond to climate change. Currently, they are a tremendous burden because of the high losses they inflict on crops and livestock. Smallholder farmers in developing countries of Africa are likely to suffer more under these changes than farmers in the developed world because more severe climatic changes are projected in these areas. African countries further have a lower ability to cope with impacts of climate change through the lack of suitable adapted management strategies and financial constraints. In this study we are predicting current and future habitat suitability under changing climatic conditions for Tuta absoluta, Ceratitis cosyra, and Bactrocera invadens, three important insect pests that are common across some parts of Africa and responsible for immense agricultural losses. We use presence records from different sources and bioclimatic variables to predict their habitat suitability using the maximum entropy modelling approach. We find that habitat suitability for B. invadens, C. cosyra and T. absoluta is partially increasing across the continent, especially in those areas already overlapping with or close to most suitable sites under current climate conditions. Assuming a habitat suitability at three different threshold levels we assessed where each species is likely to be present under future climatic conditions and if this is likely to have an impact on productive agricultural areas. Our results can be used by African policy makers, extensionists and farmers for agricultural adaptation measures to cope with the impacts of climate change. PMID:27054718

  7. Future Risks of Pest Species under Changing Climatic Conditions.

    PubMed

    Biber-Freudenberger, Lisa; Ziemacki, Jasmin; Tonnang, Henri E Z; Borgemeister, Christian

    2016-01-01

    Most agricultural pests are poikilothermic species expected to respond to climate change. Currently, they are a tremendous burden because of the high losses they inflict on crops and livestock. Smallholder farmers in developing countries of Africa are likely to suffer more under these changes than farmers in the developed world because more severe climatic changes are projected in these areas. African countries further have a lower ability to cope with impacts of climate change through the lack of suitable adapted management strategies and financial constraints. In this study we are predicting current and future habitat suitability under changing climatic conditions for Tuta absoluta, Ceratitis cosyra, and Bactrocera invadens, three important insect pests that are common across some parts of Africa and responsible for immense agricultural losses. We use presence records from different sources and bioclimatic variables to predict their habitat suitability using the maximum entropy modelling approach. We find that habitat suitability for B. invadens, C. cosyra and T. absoluta is partially increasing across the continent, especially in those areas already overlapping with or close to most suitable sites under current climate conditions. Assuming a habitat suitability at three different threshold levels we assessed where each species is likely to be present under future climatic conditions and if this is likely to have an impact on productive agricultural areas. Our results can be used by African policy makers, extensionists and farmers for agricultural adaptation measures to cope with the impacts of climate change.

  8. Simulating Freshwater Availability under Future Climate Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, F.; Zeng, N.; Motesharrei, S.; Gustafson, K. C.; Rivas, J.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F.; Kalnay, E.

    2013-12-01

    Freshwater availability is a key factor for regional development. Precipitation, evaporation, river inflow and outflow are the major terms in the estimate of regional water supply. In this study, we aim to obtain a realistic estimate for these variables from 1901 to 2100. First we calculated the ensemble mean precipitation using the 2011-2100 RCP4.5 output (re-sampled to half-degree spatial resolution) from 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) participating the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The projections are then combined with the half-degree 1901-2010 Climate Research Unit (CRU) TS3.2 dataset after bias correction. We then used the combined data to drive our UMD Earth System Model (ESM), in order to generate evaporation and runoff. We also developed a River-Routing Scheme based on the idea of Taikan Oki, as part of the ESM. It is capable of calculating river inflow and outflow for any region, driven by the gridded runoff output. River direction and slope information from Global Dominant River Tracing (DRT) dataset are included in our scheme. The effects of reservoirs/dams are parameterized based on a few simple factors such as soil moisture, population density and geographic regions. Simulated river flow is validated with river gauge measurements for the world's major rivers. We have applied our river flow calculation to two data-rich watersheds in the United States: Phoenix AMA watershed and the Potomac River Basin. The results are used in our SImple WAter model (SIWA) to explore water management options.

  9. Innovative Air Conditioning and Climate Control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Graf, John

    2015-01-01

    NASA needed to develop a desiccant wheel based humidity removal system to enable the long term testing of the Orion CO2 scrubber on the International Space Station. In the course of developing that system, we learned three things that are relevant to energy efficient air conditioning of office towers. NASA developed a conceptual design for a humidity removal system for an office tower environment. We are looking for interested partners to prototype and field test this concept.

  10. Vertical gradient of climate change and climate tourism conditions in the Black Forest.

    PubMed

    Endler, Christina; Oehler, Karoline; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2010-01-01

    Due to the public discussion about global and regional warming, the regional climate and the modified climate conditions are analyzed exemplarily for three different regions in the southern Black Forest (southwest Germany). The driving question behind the present study was how can tourism adapt to modified climate conditions and associated changes to the tourism potential in low mountain ranges. The tourism potential is predominately based on the attractiveness of natural resources being climate-sensitive. In this study, regional climate simulations (A1B) are analyzed by using the REMO model. To analyze the climatic tourism potential, the following thermal, physical and aesthetic parameters are considered for the time span 1961-2050: thermal comfort, heat and cold stress, sunshine, humid-warm conditions (sultriness), fog, precipitation, storm, and ski potential (snow cover). Frequency classes of these parameters expressed as a percentage are processed on a monthly scale. The results are presented in form of the Climate-Tourism-Information-Scheme (CTIS). Due to warmer temperatures, winters might shorten while summers might lengthen. The lowland might be more affected by heat and sultriness (e.g., Freiburg due to the effects of urban climate). To adapt to a changing climate and tourism, the awareness of both stakeholders and tourists as well as the adaptive capability are essential.

  11. Pathways from childhood abuse and other adversities to adult health risks: The role of adult socioeconomic conditions.

    PubMed

    Font, Sarah A; Maguire-Jack, Kathryn

    2016-01-01

    Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), including child abuse, have been linked with poor health outcomes in adulthood. The mechanisms that explain these relations are less understood. This study assesses whether associations of ACEs and health risks are mediated by adult socioeconomic conditions, and whether these pathways are different for maltreatment than for other types of adversities. Using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System 2012 survey (N=29,229), we employ structural equation modeling to (1) estimate associations of the number and type of ACEs with five health risks-depression, obesity, tobacco use, binge drinking, and self-reported sub-optimal health; and (2) assess whether adult socioeconomic conditions-marriage, divorce and separation, educational attainment, income and insurance status-mediate those associations. Findings suggest both direct and indirect associations between ACEs and health risks. At high numbers of ACEs, 15-20% of the association between number of ACEs and adult health risks was attributable to socioeconomic conditions. Associations of three ACEs (exposure to domestic violence, parental divorce, and residing with a person who was incarcerated) with health risks were nearly entirely explained by socioeconomic conditions in adulthood. However, child physical, emotional, and sexual abuse were significantly associated with several adult health risks, beyond the effects of other adversities, and socioeconomic conditions explained only a small portion of these associations. These findings suggest that the pathways to poor adult health differ by types of ACEs, and that childhood abuse is more likely than other adversities to have a direct impact.

  12. Modern maize hybrids in Northeast China exhibit increased yield potential and resource use efficiency despite adverse climate change.

    PubMed

    Chen, Xiaochao; Chen, Fanjun; Chen, Yanling; Gao, Qiang; Yang, Xiaoli; Yuan, Lixing; Zhang, Fusuo; Mi, Guohua

    2013-03-01

    The impact of global changes on food security is of serious concern. Breeding novel crop cultivars adaptable to climate change is one potential solution, but this approach requires an understanding of complex adaptive traits for climate-change conditions. In this study, plant growth, nitrogen (N) uptake, and yield in relation to climatic resource use efficiency of nine representative maize cultivars released between 1973 and 2000 in China were investigated in a 2-year field experiment under three N applications. The Hybrid-Maize model was used to simulate maize yield potential in the period from 1973 to 2011. During the past four decades, the total thermal time (growing degree days) increased whereas the total precipitation and sunshine hours decreased. This climate change led to a reduction of maize potential yield by an average of 12.9% across different hybrids. However, the potential yield of individual hybrids increased by 118.5 kg ha(-1)  yr(-1) with increasing year of release. From 1973 to 2000, the use efficiency of sunshine hours, thermal time, and precipitation resources increased by 37%, 40%, and 41%, respectively. The late developed hybrids showed less reduction in yield potential in current climate conditions than old cultivars, indicating some adaptation to new conditions. Since the mid-1990s, however, the yield impact of climate change exhibited little change, and even a slight worsening for new cultivars. Modern breeding increased ear fertility and grain-filling rate, and delayed leaf senescence without modification in net photosynthetic rate. The trade-off associated with delayed leaf senescence was decreased grain N concentration rather than increased plant N uptake, therefore N agronomic efficiency increased simultaneously. It is concluded that modern maize hybrids tolerate the climatic changes mainly by constitutively optimizing plant productivity. Maize breeding programs in the future should pay more attention to cope with the limiting

  13. Personality traits, national character stereotypes, and climate-economic conditions.

    PubMed

    Terracciano, Antonio; Chan, Wayne

    2013-10-01

    Cross-cultural personality research suggests that individuals from wealthier countries tend to be more open-minded. This openness to values may support more democratic governments and the expansion of fundamental freedoms. The link between wealth and freedom is evident in cold-to-temperate climates, but not across wealthy nations in hot climates. Furthermore, temperature and economic conditions shape perceptions of national character stereotypes.

  14. 24 CFR 3285.404 - Severe climatic conditions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ....404 Severe climatic conditions. In frost-susceptible soil locations, ground anchor augers must be installed below the frost line, unless the foundation system is frost-protected to prevent the effects of frost heave, in accordance with acceptable engineering practice and § 3280.306 of this chapter...

  15. 24 CFR 3285.404 - Severe climatic conditions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ....404 Severe climatic conditions. In frost-susceptible soil locations, ground anchor augers must be installed below the frost line, unless the foundation system is frost-protected to prevent the effects of frost heave, in accordance with acceptable engineering practice and § 3280.306 of this chapter...

  16. 24 CFR 3285.404 - Severe climatic conditions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ....404 Severe climatic conditions. In frost-susceptible soil locations, ground anchor augers must be installed below the frost line, unless the foundation system is frost-protected to prevent the effects of frost heave, in accordance with acceptable engineering practice and § 3280.306 of this chapter...

  17. 24 CFR 3285.404 - Severe climatic conditions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ....404 Severe climatic conditions. In frost-susceptible soil locations, ground anchor augers must be installed below the frost line, unless the foundation system is frost-protected to prevent the effects of frost heave, in accordance with acceptable engineering practice and § 3280.306 of this chapter...

  18. 24 CFR 3285.404 - Severe climatic conditions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ....404 Severe climatic conditions. In frost-susceptible soil locations, ground anchor augers must be installed below the frost line, unless the foundation system is frost-protected to prevent the effects of frost heave, in accordance with acceptable engineering practice and § 3280.306 of this chapter...

  19. Forecasting conditional climate-change using a hybrid approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Esfahani, Akbar Akbari; Friedel, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients. This hybrid approach involves reconstructing past precipitation and temperature using the self-organizing map technique; determining quantile trends in the climate-change variables by quantile regression modeling; and computing conditional forecasts of climate-change variables based on self-similarity in quantile trends using the fractionally differenced auto-regressive integrated moving average technique. The proposed modeling approach is applied to states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) in the southwestern U.S., where conditional forecasts of climate-change variables are evaluated against recent (2012) observations, evaluated at a future time period (2030), and evaluated as future trends (2009–2059). These results have broad economic, political, and social implications because they quantify uncertainty in climate-change forecasts affecting various sectors of society. Another benefit of the proposed hybrid approach is that it can be extended to any spatiotemporal scale providing self-similarity exists.

  20. Comparing Observed Hurricane Conditions Against Potential Future Climate Change Influences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graham, W. D.

    2012-12-01

    Climate Adaptation Science Investigators: (CASI) is to advance and apply NASA's scientific expertise and products to develop climate adaptation strategies that support NASA's overall mission by minimizing risks to each center's operations, physical assets, and personnel. Using Hurricane Katrina observations as a baseline, we use ADCIRC to model surge extent with simple modifications of the storm track. We examine two time now (T0) scenarios of present-day climatological factors: 1) translating the 2005 path 7 km west; and 2) rotating the approach angle from due-north to WNW. Second, we examine two future time scenarios (TX) by infusing climate change conditions, such as sea level rise and increased storm intensity, into a T0 baseline to assess future impacts. The primary goal of this work entails planning and protecting NASA assets and infrastructure. The adjacent communities, state and local emergency managers, gain benefit from this NASA work as data and analysis includes the surrounding geography.

  1. [WORKING CONDITIONS AND THE HEALTH STATE OF FEMALE WORKERS IN DAIRY ENTERPRISES IN VARIOUS CLIMATIC CONDITIONS].

    PubMed

    Rakitina, I S; Lyapkalo, A A; Chudinin, N V

    2016-01-01

    The paper presents a comprehensive sanitary - hygienic assessment of working conditions for female workers in dairy enterprises located in different climatic regions. On the basis of this assessment, a set of preventive measures aimed at improvement of the working conditions and the health state offemale workers may be developed and implemented. PMID:27430066

  2. Ceramic production during changing environmental/climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oestreich, Daniela B.; Glasmacher, Ulrich A.

    2015-04-01

    Ceramics, with regard to their status as largely everlasting everyday object as well as on the basis of their chronological sensitivity, reflect despite their simplicity the technological level of a culture and therefore also, directly or indirectly, the adaptability of a culture with respect to environmental and/or climatic changes. For that reason the question arises, if it is possible to identify changes in production techniques and raw material sources for ceramic production, as a response to environmental change, e.g. climate change. This paper will present results of a research about Paracas Culture (800 - 200 BC), southern Peru. Through several investigations (e.g. Schittek et al., 2014; Eitel and Mächtle, 2009) it is well known that during Paracas period changes in climate and environmental conditions take place. As a consequence, settlement patterns shifted several times through the various stages of Paracas time. Ceramics from three different sites (Jauranga, Cutamalla, Collanco) and temporal phases of the Paracas period are detailed archaeometric, geochemical and mineralogical characterized, e.g. Raman spectroscopy, XRD, and ICP-MS analyses. The aim of this research is to resolve potential differences in the chemical composition of the Paracas ceramics in space and time and to compare the data with the data sets of pre-Columbian environmental conditions. Thus influences of changing environmental conditions on human societies and their cultural conditions will be discussed. References Eitel, B. and Mächtle, B. 2009. Man and Environment in the eastern Atacama Desert (Southern Peru): Holocene climate changes and their impact on pre-Columbian cultures. In: Reindel, M. & Wagner, G. A. (eds.) New Technologies for Archaeology. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag. Schittek, K., Mächtle, B., Schäbitz, F., Forbriger, M., Wennrich, V., Reindel, M., and Eitel, B.. Holocene environmental changes in the highlands of the southern Peruvian Andes (14° S) and their

  3. 30 CFR 285.816 - What must I do if environmental or other conditions adversely affect a cable, pipeline, or facility?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What must I do if environmental or other conditions adversely affect a cable, pipeline, or facility? 285.816 Section 285.816 Mineral Resources..., pipeline, or facility? If environmental or other conditions adversely affect a cable, pipeline, or...

  4. 30 CFR 585.816 - What must I do if environmental or other conditions adversely affect a cable, pipeline, or facility?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... conditions adversely affect a cable, pipeline, or facility? 585.816 Section 585.816 Mineral Resources BUREAU... affect a cable, pipeline, or facility? If environmental or other conditions adversely affect a cable, pipeline, or facility so as to endanger the safety or the environment, you must: (a) Submit a plan...

  5. 30 CFR 585.816 - What must I do if environmental or other conditions adversely affect a cable, pipeline, or facility?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... conditions adversely affect a cable, pipeline, or facility? 585.816 Section 585.816 Mineral Resources BUREAU... affect a cable, pipeline, or facility? If environmental or other conditions adversely affect a cable, pipeline, or facility so as to endanger the safety or the environment, you must: (a) Submit a plan...

  6. 30 CFR 585.816 - What must I do if environmental or other conditions adversely affect a cable, pipeline, or facility?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... conditions adversely affect a cable, pipeline, or facility? 585.816 Section 585.816 Mineral Resources BUREAU... affect a cable, pipeline, or facility? If environmental or other conditions adversely affect a cable, pipeline, or facility so as to endanger the safety or the environment, you must: (a) Submit a plan...

  7. Variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics in Chesapeake Bay

    PubMed Central

    Harding, Jr., Lawrence W.; Mallonee, Michael E.; Perry, Elgin S.; Miller, W. David; Adolf, Jason E.; Gallegos, Charles L.; Paerl, Hans W.

    2016-01-01

    Variable climatic conditions strongly influence phytoplankton dynamics in estuaries globally. Our study area is Chesapeake Bay, a highly productive ecosystem providing natural resources, transportation, and recreation for nearly 16 million people inhabiting a 165,000-km2 watershed. Since World War II, nutrient over-enrichment has led to multiple ecosystem impairments caused by increased phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll-a (chl-a). Doubled nitrogen (N) loadings from 1945–1980 led to increased chl-a, reduced water clarity, and low dissolved oxygen (DO), while decreased N loadings from 1981–2012 suggest modest improvement. The recent 30+ years are characterized by high inter-annual variability of chl-a, coinciding with irregular dry and wet periods, complicating the detection of long-term trends. Here, we synthesize time-series data for historical and recent N loadings (TN, NO2 + NO3), chl-a, floral composition, and net primary productivity (NPP) to distinguish secular changes caused by nutrient over-enrichment from spatio-temporal variability imposed by climatic conditions. Wet years showed higher chl-a, higher diatom abundance, and increased NPP, while dry years showed lower chl-a, lower diatom abundance, and decreased NPP. Our findings support a conceptual model wherein variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics against a backdrop of nutrient over-enrichment, emphasizing the need to separate these effects to gauge progress toward improving water quality in estuaries. PMID:27026279

  8. Variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics in Chesapeake Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harding, Lawrence W., Jr.; Mallonee, Michael E.; Perry, Elgin S.; Miller, W. David; Adolf, Jason E.; Gallegos, Charles L.; Paerl, Hans W.

    2016-03-01

    Variable climatic conditions strongly influence phytoplankton dynamics in estuaries globally. Our study area is Chesapeake Bay, a highly productive ecosystem providing natural resources, transportation, and recreation for nearly 16 million people inhabiting a 165,000-km2 watershed. Since World War II, nutrient over-enrichment has led to multiple ecosystem impairments caused by increased phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll-a (chl-a). Doubled nitrogen (N) loadings from 1945–1980 led to increased chl-a, reduced water clarity, and low dissolved oxygen (DO), while decreased N loadings from 1981–2012 suggest modest improvement. The recent 30+ years are characterized by high inter-annual variability of chl-a, coinciding with irregular dry and wet periods, complicating the detection of long-term trends. Here, we synthesize time-series data for historical and recent N loadings (TN, NO2 + NO3), chl-a, floral composition, and net primary productivity (NPP) to distinguish secular changes caused by nutrient over-enrichment from spatio-temporal variability imposed by climatic conditions. Wet years showed higher chl-a, higher diatom abundance, and increased NPP, while dry years showed lower chl-a, lower diatom abundance, and decreased NPP. Our findings support a conceptual model wherein variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics against a backdrop of nutrient over-enrichment, emphasizing the need to separate these effects to gauge progress toward improving water quality in estuaries.

  9. Variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics in Chesapeake Bay.

    PubMed

    Harding, Lawrence W; Mallonee, Michael E; Perry, Elgin S; Miller, W David; Adolf, Jason E; Gallegos, Charles L; Paerl, Hans W

    2016-01-01

    Variable climatic conditions strongly influence phytoplankton dynamics in estuaries globally. Our study area is Chesapeake Bay, a highly productive ecosystem providing natural resources, transportation, and recreation for nearly 16 million people inhabiting a 165,000-km(2) watershed. Since World War II, nutrient over-enrichment has led to multiple ecosystem impairments caused by increased phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll-a (chl-a). Doubled nitrogen (N) loadings from 1945-1980 led to increased chl-a, reduced water clarity, and low dissolved oxygen (DO), while decreased N loadings from 1981-2012 suggest modest improvement. The recent 30+ years are characterized by high inter-annual variability of chl-a, coinciding with irregular dry and wet periods, complicating the detection of long-term trends. Here, we synthesize time-series data for historical and recent N loadings (TN, NO2 + NO3), chl-a, floral composition, and net primary productivity (NPP) to distinguish secular changes caused by nutrient over-enrichment from spatio-temporal variability imposed by climatic conditions. Wet years showed higher chl-a, higher diatom abundance, and increased NPP, while dry years showed lower chl-a, lower diatom abundance, and decreased NPP. Our findings support a conceptual model wherein variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics against a backdrop of nutrient over-enrichment, emphasizing the need to separate these effects to gauge progress toward improving water quality in estuaries. PMID:27026279

  10. Variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics in Chesapeake Bay.

    PubMed

    Harding, Lawrence W; Mallonee, Michael E; Perry, Elgin S; Miller, W David; Adolf, Jason E; Gallegos, Charles L; Paerl, Hans W

    2016-03-30

    Variable climatic conditions strongly influence phytoplankton dynamics in estuaries globally. Our study area is Chesapeake Bay, a highly productive ecosystem providing natural resources, transportation, and recreation for nearly 16 million people inhabiting a 165,000-km(2) watershed. Since World War II, nutrient over-enrichment has led to multiple ecosystem impairments caused by increased phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll-a (chl-a). Doubled nitrogen (N) loadings from 1945-1980 led to increased chl-a, reduced water clarity, and low dissolved oxygen (DO), while decreased N loadings from 1981-2012 suggest modest improvement. The recent 30+ years are characterized by high inter-annual variability of chl-a, coinciding with irregular dry and wet periods, complicating the detection of long-term trends. Here, we synthesize time-series data for historical and recent N loadings (TN, NO2 + NO3), chl-a, floral composition, and net primary productivity (NPP) to distinguish secular changes caused by nutrient over-enrichment from spatio-temporal variability imposed by climatic conditions. Wet years showed higher chl-a, higher diatom abundance, and increased NPP, while dry years showed lower chl-a, lower diatom abundance, and decreased NPP. Our findings support a conceptual model wherein variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics against a backdrop of nutrient over-enrichment, emphasizing the need to separate these effects to gauge progress toward improving water quality in estuaries.

  11. Influence of weather-climatic conditions on biospheric processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Govorushko, S. M.

    2012-12-01

    The significance of meteorological processes and phenomena in the biosphere functioning is revealed. The influence of various weather conditions on human health is considered; the factors and mechanisms of their action are described. The impact of meteorological processes on animals is discussed and concrete examples of such impacts are presented. The influence of meteorological processes and phenomena on plants at different stages of their life (pollination, growth, ripening, transport of seeds, damage, and death) and on some abiotic natural components is shown. It is inferred that weather-climatic conditions have a great influence on biospheric processes.

  12. Agricultural pests under future climate conditions: downscaling of regional climate scenarios with a stochastic weather generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirschi, M.; Stöckli, S.; Dubrovsky, M.; Spirig, C.; Rotach, M. W.; Calanca, P.; Samietz, J.

    2010-09-01

    As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously unaffected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests have been developed, which model the infestation depending on actual weather conditions. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages therefore requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. In particular, pest forecast models are often not based on screen temperature and precipitation alone (i.e., the most generally projected climate variables), but might require input variables such as soil temperature, in-canopy net radiation or leaf wetness. Here, we use a stochastic weather and a re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather data from regional climate change scenarios for 2050 in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios were derived from multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly temperature, precipitation and radiation data were produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather time series were then used for modeling important phases in the lifecycle of codling moth, the major insect pest in apple orchards worldwide. First results indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of phases relevant for pest disease control for projected as compared to current climate (e.g. the flight of the codling moth starts about ten days earlier in future climate), continuing an already observed trend towards more favorable conditions for this insect during the last 20 years.

  13. Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditionsTIC CONDITIONS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

    2013-04-01

    Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been

  14. Physiological and genetic analysis of Arabidopsis thaliana anthocyanin biosynthesis mutants under chronic adverse environmental conditions.

    PubMed

    Misyura, Maksym; Colasanti, Joseph; Rothstein, Steven J

    2013-01-01

    Anthocyanin production is a characteristic response of flowering plants to unfavourable environmental conditions. The potential roles of flavonoids and anthocyanins in plant growth were investigated by growing Arabidopsis thaliana anthocyanin production mutants (transparent testa) under limiting nitrogen and high light conditions. Inability to produce kaempferol or subsequent intermediate compounds by some transparent testa lines was correlated with less biomass accumulation in mature plants compared with wild-type control plants under all growth conditions tested. However, under both limiting nitrogen and high light chronic stress conditions, mutant lines defective in later steps of the anthocyanin production pathway produced the same or more biomass than wild-type plants. No difference in senescence between transparent testa and wild-type plants was found using chlorophyll catabolism and SAG12 expression measurements, and no mutants were impaired in the ability to remobilize nutrients from the vegetative to reproductive tissues. Moreover, the absence of anthocyanin and/or upstream flavonoids does not affect the ability of plants to respond to limiting nitrogen by reducing photosynthetic capacity. These results support a role for kaempferol and quercetin accumulation in normal plant growth and development. Further, the absence of anthocyanins has no effect on plant growth under the chronic stress conditions tested.

  15. Adverse foraging conditions may impact body mass and survival of a high Arctic seabird.

    PubMed

    Harding, Ann M A; Welcker, Jorg; Steen, Harald; Hamer, Keith C; Kitaysky, Alexander S; Fort, Jérôme; Talbot, Sandra L; Cornick, Leslie A; Karnovsky, Nina J; Gabrielsen, Geir W; Grémillet, David

    2011-09-01

    Tradeoffs between current reproduction and future survival are widely recognized, but may only occur when food is limited: when foraging conditions are favorable, parents may be able to reproduce without compromising their own survival. We investigated these tradeoffs in the little auk (Alle alle), a small seabird with a single-egg clutch. During 2005-2007, we examined the relationship between body mass and survival of birds breeding under contrasting foraging conditions at two Arctic colonies. We used corticosterone levels of breeding adults as a physiological indicator of the foraging conditions they encountered during each reproductive season. We found that when foraging conditions were relatively poor (as reflected in elevated levels of corticosterone), parents ended the reproductive season with low body mass and suffered increased post-breeding mortality. A positive relationship between body mass and post-breeding survival was found in one study year; light birds incurred higher survival costs than heavy birds. The results of this study suggest that reproducing under poor foraging conditions may affect the post-breeding survival of long-lived little auks. They also have important demographic implications because even a small change in adult survival may have a large effect on populations of long-lived species.

  16. Adverse foraging conditions may impact body mass and survival of a high Arctic seabird

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harding, A.M.A.; Welcker, J.; Steen, H.; Hamer, K.C.; Kitaysky, A.S.; Fort, J.; Talbot, S.L.; Cornick, L.A.; Karnovsky, N.J.; Gabrielsen, G.W.; Gremillet, D.

    2011-01-01

    Tradeoffs between current reproduction and future survival are widely recognized, but may only occur when food is limited: when foraging conditions are favorable, parents may be able to reproduce without compromising their own survival. We investigated these tradeoffs in the little auk (Alle alle), a small seabird with a single-egg clutch. During 2005-2007, we examined the relationship between body mass and survival of birds breeding under contrasting foraging conditions at two Arctic colonies. We used corticosterone levels of breeding adults as a physiological indicator of the foraging conditions they encountered during each reproductive season. We found that when foraging conditions were relatively poor (as reflected in elevated levels of corticosterone), parents ended the reproductive season with low body mass and suffered increased post-breeding mortality. A positive relationship between body mass and post-breeding survival was found in one study year; light birds incurred higher survival costs than heavy birds. The results of this study suggest that reproducing under poor foraging conditions may affect the post-breeding survival of long-lived little auks. They also have important demographic implications because even a small change in adult survival may have a large effect on populations of long-lived species. ?? 2011 Springer-Verlag.

  17. Physiological and genetic analysis of Arabidopsis thaliana anthocyanin biosynthesis mutants under chronic adverse environmental conditions

    PubMed Central

    Rothstein, Steven J.

    2013-01-01

    Anthocyanin production is a characteristic response of flowering plants to unfavourable environmental conditions. The potential roles of flavonoids and anthocyanins in plant growth were investigated by growing Arabidopsis thaliana anthocyanin production mutants (transparent testa) under limiting nitrogen and high light conditions. Inability to produce kaempferol or subsequent intermediate compounds by some transparent testa lines was correlated with less biomass accumulation in mature plants compared with wild-type control plants under all growth conditions tested. However, under both limiting nitrogen and high light chronic stress conditions, mutant lines defective in later steps of the anthocyanin production pathway produced the same or more biomass than wild-type plants. No difference in senescence between transparent testa and wild-type plants was found using chlorophyll catabolism and SAG12 expression measurements, and no mutants were impaired in the ability to remobilize nutrients from the vegetative to reproductive tissues. Moreover, the absence of anthocyanin and/or upstream flavonoids does not affect the ability of plants to respond to limiting nitrogen by reducing photosynthetic capacity. These results support a role for kaempferol and quercetin accumulation in normal plant growth and development. Further, the absence of anthocyanins has no effect on plant growth under the chronic stress conditions tested. PMID:23162120

  18. Diverging responses of tropical Andean biomes under future climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Tovar, Carolina; Arnillas, Carlos Alberto; Cuesta, Francisco; Buytaert, Wouter

    2013-01-01

    Observations and projections for mountain regions show a strong tendency towards upslope displacement of their biomes under future climate conditions. Because of their climatic and topographic heterogeneity, a more complex response is expected for biodiversity hotspots such as tropical mountain regions. This study analyzes potential changes in the distribution of biomes in the Tropical Andes and identifies target areas for conservation. Biome distribution models were developed using logistic regressions. These models were then coupled to an ensemble of 8 global climate models to project future distribution of the Andean biomes and their uncertainties. We analysed projected changes in extent and elevational range and identified regions most prone to change. Our results show a heterogeneous response to climate change. Although the wetter biomes exhibit an upslope displacement of both the upper and the lower boundaries as expected, most dry biomes tend to show downslope expansion. Despite important losses being projected for several biomes, projections suggest that between 74.8% and 83.1% of the current total Tropical Andes will remain stable, depending on the emission scenario and time horizon. Between 3.3% and 7.6% of the study area is projected to change, mostly towards an increase in vertical structure. For the remaining area (13.1%-17.4%), there is no agreement between model projections. These results challenge the common believe that climate change will lead to an upslope displacement of biome boundaries in mountain regions. Instead, our models project diverging responses, including downslope expansion and large areas projected to remain stable. Lastly, a significant part of the area expected to change is already affected by land use changes, which has important implications for management. This, and the inclusion of a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, will help to inform conservation strategies in the Tropical Andes, and to guide similar assessments for other

  19. Diverging responses of tropical Andean biomes under future climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Tovar, Carolina; Arnillas, Carlos Alberto; Cuesta, Francisco; Buytaert, Wouter

    2013-01-01

    Observations and projections for mountain regions show a strong tendency towards upslope displacement of their biomes under future climate conditions. Because of their climatic and topographic heterogeneity, a more complex response is expected for biodiversity hotspots such as tropical mountain regions. This study analyzes potential changes in the distribution of biomes in the Tropical Andes and identifies target areas for conservation. Biome distribution models were developed using logistic regressions. These models were then coupled to an ensemble of 8 global climate models to project future distribution of the Andean biomes and their uncertainties. We analysed projected changes in extent and elevational range and identified regions most prone to change. Our results show a heterogeneous response to climate change. Although the wetter biomes exhibit an upslope displacement of both the upper and the lower boundaries as expected, most dry biomes tend to show downslope expansion. Despite important losses being projected for several biomes, projections suggest that between 74.8% and 83.1% of the current total Tropical Andes will remain stable, depending on the emission scenario and time horizon. Between 3.3% and 7.6% of the study area is projected to change, mostly towards an increase in vertical structure. For the remaining area (13.1%-17.4%), there is no agreement between model projections. These results challenge the common believe that climate change will lead to an upslope displacement of biome boundaries in mountain regions. Instead, our models project diverging responses, including downslope expansion and large areas projected to remain stable. Lastly, a significant part of the area expected to change is already affected by land use changes, which has important implications for management. This, and the inclusion of a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, will help to inform conservation strategies in the Tropical Andes, and to guide similar assessments for other

  20. Diverging Responses of Tropical Andean Biomes under Future Climate Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Tovar, Carolina; Arnillas, Carlos Alberto; Cuesta, Francisco; Buytaert, Wouter

    2013-01-01

    Observations and projections for mountain regions show a strong tendency towards upslope displacement of their biomes under future climate conditions. Because of their climatic and topographic heterogeneity, a more complex response is expected for biodiversity hotspots such as tropical mountain regions. This study analyzes potential changes in the distribution of biomes in the Tropical Andes and identifies target areas for conservation. Biome distribution models were developed using logistic regressions. These models were then coupled to an ensemble of 8 global climate models to project future distribution of the Andean biomes and their uncertainties. We analysed projected changes in extent and elevational range and identified regions most prone to change. Our results show a heterogeneous response to climate change. Although the wetter biomes exhibit an upslope displacement of both the upper and the lower boundaries as expected, most dry biomes tend to show downslope expansion. Despite important losses being projected for several biomes, projections suggest that between 74.8% and 83.1% of the current total Tropical Andes will remain stable, depending on the emission scenario and time horizon. Between 3.3% and 7.6% of the study area is projected to change, mostly towards an increase in vertical structure. For the remaining area (13.1%–17.4%), there is no agreement between model projections. These results challenge the common believe that climate change will lead to an upslope displacement of biome boundaries in mountain regions. Instead, our models project diverging responses, including downslope expansion and large areas projected to remain stable. Lastly, a significant part of the area expected to change is already affected by land use changes, which has important implications for management. This, and the inclusion of a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, will help to inform conservation strategies in the Tropical Andes, and to guide similar assessments for

  1. Use of a driving simulator to assess performance under adverse weather conditions in adults with albinism.

    PubMed

    Hofman, Gwen M; Summers, C Gail; Ward, Nicholas; Bhargava, Esha; Rakauskas, Michael E; Holleschau, Ann M

    2012-04-01

    Participants with albinism have reduced vision and nystagmus with reduced foveation times. This prospective study evaluated driving in 12 participants with albinism and 12 matched controls. Participants drove a vehicle simulator through a virtual rural course in sunny and foggy conditions. Under sunny conditions, participants with albinism showed a narrower preferred minimum safety boundary during car-following tasks than did controls, but there was no difference under foggy conditions. Their driving did not differ significantly from that of controls when approaching a stop sign or when choosing gap size between oncoming vehicles when crossing an intersection. However, when compared to control drivers, participants with albinism had a decreased minimum safety boundary for car-following that should be included in counseling regarding driving safety.

  2. Contact mechanics of modular metal-on-polyethylene total hip replacement under adverse edge loading conditions

    PubMed Central

    Hua, Xijin; Li, Junyan; Wang, Ling; Jin, Zhongmin; Wilcox, Ruth; Fisher, John

    2014-01-01

    Edge loading can negatively impact the biomechanics and long-term performance of hip replacements. Although edge loading has been widely investigated for hard-on-hard articulations, limited work has been conducted for hard-on-soft combinations. The aim of the present study was to investigate edge loading and its effect on the contact mechanics of a modular metal-on-polyethylene (MoP) total hip replacement (THR). A three-dimensional finite element model was developed based on a modular MoP bearing. Different cup inclination angles and head lateral microseparation were modelled and their effect on the contact mechanics of the modular MoP hip replacement were examined. The results showed that lateral microseparation caused loading of the head on the rim of the cup, which produced substantial increases in the maximum von Mises stress in the polyethylene liner and the maximum contact pressure on both the articulating surface and backside surface of the liner. Plastic deformation of the liner was observed under both standard conditions and microseparation conditions, however, the maximum equivalent plastic strain in the liner under microseparation conditions of 2000 µm was predicted to be approximately six times that under standard conditions. The study has indicated that correct positioning the components to avoid edge loading is likely to be important clinically even for hard-on-soft bearings for THR. PMID:25218504

  3. Contact mechanics of modular metal-on-polyethylene total hip replacement under adverse edge loading conditions.

    PubMed

    Hua, Xijin; Li, Junyan; Wang, Ling; Jin, Zhongmin; Wilcox, Ruth; Fisher, John

    2014-10-17

    Edge loading can negatively impact the biomechanics and long-term performance of hip replacements. Although edge loading has been widely investigated for hard-on-hard articulations, limited work has been conducted for hard-on-soft combinations. The aim of the present study was to investigate edge loading and its effect on the contact mechanics of a modular metal-on-polyethylene (MoP) total hip replacement (THR). A three-dimensional finite element model was developed based on a modular MoP bearing. Different cup inclination angles and head lateral microseparation were modelled and their effect on the contact mechanics of the modular MoP hip replacement were examined. The results showed that lateral microseparation caused loading of the head on the rim of the cup, which produced substantial increases in the maximum von Mises stress in the polyethylene liner and the maximum contact pressure on both the articulating surface and backside surface of the liner. Plastic deformation of the liner was observed under both standard conditions and microseparation conditions, however, the maximum equivalent plastic strain in the liner under microseparation conditions of 2000 µm was predicted to be approximately six times that under standard conditions. The study has indicated that correct positioning the components to avoid edge loading is likely to be important clinically even for hard-on-soft bearings for THR.

  4. Performance evaluation of laser scanners through the atmosphere with adverse condition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hespel, L.; Riviere, N.; Huet, T.; Tanguy, B.; Ceolato, R.

    2011-11-01

    Using laser imaging systems to represent 3-D scene becomes a referent prospective technology in the areas of guidance and navigation. Measurements with high spatial resolution for significant range can be achieved, even in degraded visibility conditions such as the Brown-White Out, rain, fog, sandstorms... Moreover, this technology is well suited for assisted perception tasks (access to 3D information) and obstacle detection (telemetry of small objects). For airborne applications, it is very complementary to conventional enhanced vision systems such as Forward Looking Infrared (FLIR) and millimeter wave radar to provide images of land in environments with limited visibility. It also offers a 3D mapping of land or a single location in relation to the environment, which means alone or coupled with others, can realign and secure real-time database of information used such in a synthetic vision system (SVS). The objective of the work is to assess the impact of degraded visibility conditions on the laser radiometric propagation of a 3D laser scanner as they directly influence the performance of the ladar system [1].

  5. A study of different indicators of Maillard reaction with whey proteins and different carbohydrates under adverse storage conditions.

    PubMed

    Leiva, Graciela E; Naranjo, Gabriela B; Malec, Laura S

    2017-01-15

    This study examined different indicators of each stage of Maillard reaction under adverse storage conditions in a system with whey proteins and lactose or glucose. The analysis of lysine loss by the o-phthaldialdehyde method can be considered a good indicator of the early stage, showing considerable differences in reactivity when systems with mono and disaccharides were analyzed. Capillary electrophoresis proved to be a sensitive method for evaluating the extent of glycosylation of the native proteins, providing valuable information when the loss of lysine was not significant. The estimation of the Amadori compound from the determination of total 5-hydroxymethyl-2-furfuraldehyde would have correlate well with reactive lysine content if the advanced stages of the reaction had not been reached. For assessing the occurrence of the intermediate and final stages, the measurement of free 5-hydroxymethyl-2-furfuraldehyde and color, proved not to be suitable for storage conditions.

  6. A study of different indicators of Maillard reaction with whey proteins and different carbohydrates under adverse storage conditions.

    PubMed

    Leiva, Graciela E; Naranjo, Gabriela B; Malec, Laura S

    2017-01-15

    This study examined different indicators of each stage of Maillard reaction under adverse storage conditions in a system with whey proteins and lactose or glucose. The analysis of lysine loss by the o-phthaldialdehyde method can be considered a good indicator of the early stage, showing considerable differences in reactivity when systems with mono and disaccharides were analyzed. Capillary electrophoresis proved to be a sensitive method for evaluating the extent of glycosylation of the native proteins, providing valuable information when the loss of lysine was not significant. The estimation of the Amadori compound from the determination of total 5-hydroxymethyl-2-furfuraldehyde would have correlate well with reactive lysine content if the advanced stages of the reaction had not been reached. For assessing the occurrence of the intermediate and final stages, the measurement of free 5-hydroxymethyl-2-furfuraldehyde and color, proved not to be suitable for storage conditions. PMID:27542493

  7. Slarti: A boundary condition editor for a coupled climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mickelson, S. A.; Jacob, R. L.; Pierrehumbert, R.

    2006-12-01

    One of the largest barriers to making climate models more flexible is the difficulty in creating new boundary conditions, especially for "deep time" paleoclimate cases where continents are in different positions. Climate models consist of several mutually-interacting component models and the boundary conditions must be consistent between them. We have developed a program called Slarti which uses a Graphical User Interface and a set of consistency rules to aid researchers in creating new, consistent, boundary condition files for the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (FOAM). Users can start from existing mask, topography, or bathymetry data or can build a "world" entirely from scratch (e.g. a single island continent). Once a case has been started, users can modify mask, vegetation, bathymetry, topography, and river flow fields by drawing new data through a "paint" interface. Users activate a synchronization button which goes through the fields to eliminate inconsistencies. When the changes are complete and save is selected, Slarti creates all the necessary files for an initial run of FOAM. The data is edited at the highest resolution (the ocean-land surface in FOAM) and then interpolated to the atmosphere resolution. Slarti was implemented in Java to maintain portability across platforms. We also relied heavily on Java Swing components to create the interface. This allowed us to create an object-oriented interface that could be used on many different systems. Since Slarti allows users to visualize their changes, they are able to see areas that may cause problems when the model is ran. Some examples would be lakes from the river flow field and narrow trenches within the bathymetry. Through different checks and options available through its interface, Slarti makes the process of creating new boundary conditions for FOAM easier and faster while reducing the chance for user errors.

  8. The influence of convection parameterisations under alternate climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rybka, Harald; Tost, Holger

    2013-04-01

    In the last decades several convection parameterisations have been developed to consider the impact of small-scale unresolved processes in Earth System Models associated with convective clouds. Global model simulations, which have been performed under current climate conditions with different convection schemes, significantly differ among each other in the simulated precipitation patterns due to the parameterisation assumptions and formulations, e.g. the simplified treatment of the cloud microphysics. Additionally, the simulated transport of short-lived trace gases strongly depends on the chosen convection parameterisation due to the differences in the vertical redistribution of mass. Furthermore, other meteorological parameters like the temperature or the specific humidity show substantial differences in convectively active regions. This study presents uncertainties of climate change scenarios caused by different convection parameterisations. For this analysis two experiments (reference simulation with a CO2 concentration of 348 ppm; 2xCO2-simulation with a CO2 concentration of 696 ppm) are calculated with the ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry (EMAC) model applying four different convection schemes (Tiedtke, ECMWF, Emanuel and Zhang-McFarlane - Hack) and two resolutions (T42 and T63), respectively. The results indicate that the equilibrium climate sensitivity is independent of the chosen convection parameterisation. However, the regional temperature increase, induced by a doubling of the carbon dioxide concentration, demonstrates differences of up to a few Kelvin at the surface as well as in the UTLS for the ITCZ region depending on the selected convection parameterisation. The interaction between cloud and convection parameterisations results in a large disagreement of precipitation patterns. Although every 2xCO2 -experiment simulates an increase in global mean precipitation rates, the change of regional precipitation patterns differ widely. Finally, analysing

  9. Optical tests of a space mechanism under an adverse environment: GAIA secondary mirror mechanism under vaccum and thermal controlled conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos Zapata, Gonzalo; Sánchez Rodríguez, Antonio; Belenguer Dávila, Tomás; Urgoiti, Eduardo; Ramírez Quintana, Argiñe

    2007-09-01

    In this work, the optical evaluation of a mechanism for space applications under vacuum and temperature controlled conditions at the facilities of the Space Instrumentation Laboratory (LINES) of the Aerospace Technical Nacional Institute of Spain (INTA) is reported. The mechanism was developed by the Spanish company SENER to fulfill the high performance requirements from ESA technology preparatory program for GAIA Astrometric Mission; in particular, a five degrees of freedom (dof), three translations and two rotations positioning mechanism for the secondary mirror of the GAIA instrument. Both interferometric tests and autocollimator measurements have been combined in order to extract the information about the accuracy of the mechanism movements as well as their repeatability under adverse environmental conditions: vacuum and thermal controlled conditions, up to a 10 -6mbar and 100K. The scope of this paper will cover the measurements concept selection, the presentation of verification activities, the results of such dedicated optical measurements, the correlation with the mechanical models and a brief description of the design process followed to meet the test requirements.

  10. Selection for Genetic Variation Inducing Pro-Inflammatory Responses under Adverse Environmental Conditions in a Ghanaian Population

    PubMed Central

    Kuningas, Maris; May, Linda; Tamm, Riin; van Bodegom, David; van den Biggelaar, Anita H. J.; Meij, Johannes J.; Frölich, Marijke; Ziem, Juventus B.; Suchiman, Helena E. D.; Metspalu, Andres; Slagboom, P. Eline; Westendorp, Rudi G. J.

    2009-01-01

    Background Chronic inflammation is involved in the pathogenesis of chronic age-associated, degenerative diseases. Pro-inflammatory host responses that are deleterious later in life may originate from evolutionary selection for genetic variation mediating resistance to infectious diseases under adverse environmental conditions. Methodology/Principal Findings In the Upper-East region of Ghana where infection has remained the leading cause of death, we studied the effect on survival of genetic variations at the IL10 gene locus that have been associated with chronic diseases. Here we show that an IL10 haplotype that associated with a pro-inflammatory innate immune response, characterised by low IL-10 (p = 0.028) and high TNF-α levels (p = 1.39×10−3), was enriched among Ghanaian elders (p = 2.46×10−6). Furthermore, in an environment where the source of drinking water (wells/rivers vs. boreholes) influences mortality risks (HR 1.28, 95% CI [1.09–1.50]), we observed that carriers of the pro-inflammatory haplotype have a survival advantage when drinking from wells/rivers but a disadvantage when drinking from boreholes (pinteraction = 0.013). Resequencing the IL10 gene region did not uncover any additional common variants in the pro-inflammatory haplotype to those SNPs that were initially genotyped. Conclusions/Significance Altogether, these data lend strong arguments for the selection of pro-inflammatory host responses to overcome fatal infection and promote survival in adverse environments. PMID:19907653

  11. Impact of in-consistency between the climate model and its initial conditions on climate prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Xueyuan; Köhl, Armin; Stammer, Detlef; Masuda, Shuhei; Ishikawa, Yoichi; Mochizuki, Takashi

    2016-05-01

    We investigated the influence of dynamical in-consistency of initial conditions on the predictive skill of decadal climate predictions. The investigation builds on the fully coupled global model "Coupled GCM for Earth Simulator" (CFES). In two separate experiments, the ocean component of the coupled model is full-field initialized with two different initial fields from either the same coupled model CFES or the GECCO2 Ocean Synthesis while the atmosphere is initialized from CFES in both cases. Differences between both experiments show that higher SST forecast skill is obtained when initializing with coupled data assimilation initial conditions (CIH) instead of those from GECCO2 (GIH), with the most significant difference in skill obtained over the tropical Pacific at lead year one. High predictive skill of SST over the tropical Pacific seen in CIH reflects the good reproduction of El Niño events at lead year one. In contrast, GIH produces additional erroneous El Niño events. The tropical Pacific skill differences between both runs can be rationalized in terms of the zonal momentum balance between the wind stress and pressure gradient force, which characterizes the upper equatorial Pacific. In GIH, the differences between the oceanic and atmospheric state at initial time leads to imbalance between the zonal wind stress and pressure gradient force over the equatorial Pacific, which leads to the additional pseudo El Niño events and explains reduced predictive skill. The balance can be reestablished if anomaly initialization strategy is applied with GECCO2 initial conditions and improved predictive skill in the tropical Pacific is observed at lead year one. However, initializing the coupled model with self-consistent initial conditions leads to the highest skill of climate prediction in the tropical Pacific by preserving the momentum balance between zonal wind stress and pressure gradient force along the equatorial Pacific.

  12. Icing Conditions Over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulygina, O.; Arzhanova, N.; Groisman, P. Y.

    2013-12-01

    Climate of the Russian Federation for the national territory. This Reference Book addresses the current state of these weather phenomena. However, the ongoing and projected humidity changes in the high latitudes will strongly affect the circum-polar area (land and ocean) and impact the frequency and intensity of these potentially dangerous weather phenomena across the entire extratropical land area. Therefore the goal of the present study is to quantify icing conditions over the northern Eurasia. Our analysis includes data of 958 Russian stations from 1977 to 2012. Regional analysis of gololed characteristics was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Maps (climatology, trends) are presented mostly for visualization purposes. The area-averaging technique using station values converted to anomalies with respect to a common reference period (in this study, from 1977 to 2012). Anomalies were arithmetically averaged first within 1N x 2E grid cells and thereafter by a weighted average value derived over the quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. This approach provides a more uniform spatial field for averaging.

  13. Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change.

    PubMed

    Trnka, Miroslav; Hlavinka, Petr; Semenov, Mikhail A

    2015-11-01

    Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions. PMID:26577595

  14. Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change

    PubMed Central

    Trnka, Miroslav; Hlavinka, Petr; Semenov, Mikhail A.

    2015-01-01

    Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions. PMID:26577595

  15. Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change.

    PubMed

    Trnka, Miroslav; Hlavinka, Petr; Semenov, Mikhail A

    2015-11-01

    Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions.

  16. Display of Bombyx mori Alcohol Dehydrogenases on the Bacillus subtilis Spore Surface to Enhance Enzymatic Activity under Adverse Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Nan; Chang, Cheng; Yao, Qin; Li, Guohui; Qin, Lvgao; Chen, Liang; Chen, Keping

    2011-01-01

    Alcohol dehydrogenases (ADHs) are oxidoreductases catalyzing the reversible oxidation of alcohols to corresponding aldehydes or ketones accompanied by nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD) or nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate (NADP) as coenzyme. ADHs attract major scientific and industrial interest for the evolutionary perspectives, afforded by their wide occurrence in nature, and for their use in industrial synthesis. However, the low activity of ADHs under extremes of pH and temperature often limits their application. To obtain ADH with high activity, in this study, we used Bombyx mori alcohol dehydrogenases (BmADH) as foreign gene and constructed a recombinant integrative plasmid pJS700-BmADH. This pJS700-BmADH was transformed into Bacillus subtilis by double cross-over and produced an amylase inactivated mutant. The fusion protein containing BmADH was expressed on the spore surface and recognized by BmADH-specific antibody. We also assayed the alcohol dehydrogenase activity of the fusion protein together with the native BmADH at different pH and temperature levels, which indicated the recombinant enzyme exhibits activity over wider ranges of temperature and pH than its native form, perhaps due to the resistance properties of B. subtilis spores against adverse conditions. PMID:21738670

  17. Discrepancies in pain presentation caused by adverse psychosocial conditions as compared to pain due to high physical workload?

    PubMed

    Arvidsson, Inger; Simonsen, Jenny Gremark; Balogh, Istvan; Hansson, Gert-Åke; Dahlqvist, Camilla; Granqvist, Lothy; Ohlsson, Kerstina; Axmon, Anna; Karlson, Björn; Nordander, Catarina

    2012-01-01

    Disorders in the musculoskeletal system have been associated with a high physical workload as well as psychosocial and individual factors. It is however not obvious which of these factors that is most important to prevent. Musculoskeletal disorders in neck and upper extremity was assessed by interview and clinical examination in 79 teachers and 93 assisting nurses, all females. Psychosocial work environment was assessed by questionnaire. The physical workload was recorded by technical measurements of postures, movements and muscular load, in 9 teachers and 12 nurses. The physical workload was lower among the teachers, but they had a more demanding psychosocial work environment. Among the nurses, but not in the teachers, the neck-shoulder disorders were associated with a high body mass index (BMI). The teachers reported neck-shoulder complaints to a higher extent than the nurses, but had much lower prevalence of diagnoses in the clinical examination (12% vs. 25%; POR 0.3 CI 0.1 - 1.2; adjusted for age and BMI). The results suggest that adverse psychosocial conditions among the teachers give rise to a different kind of pain in the neck-shoulder region than from physical overload, troublesome but not as severe as the one afflicting the nurses. PMID:22317089

  18. Icing conditions over Northern Eurasia in changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulygina, Olga N.; Arzhanova, Natalia M.; Groisman, Pavel Ya

    2015-02-01

    Icing conditions, particularly in combination with wind, affect greatly the operation of overhead communication and transmission lines causing serious failures, which result in tremendous economic damage. Icing formation is dangerous to agriculture, forestry, high seas fishery, for land and off coast man-made infrastructure. Quantitative icing characteristics such as weight, thickness, and duration are very important for the economy and human wellbeing when their maximum values exceed certain thresholds. Russian meteorological stations perform both visual and instrumental monitoring of icing deposits. Visual monitoring is ocular estimation of the type and intensity of icing and the date of ice appearance and disappearance. Instrumental monitoring is performed by ice accretion indicator that in addition to the type, intensity and duration of ice deposits reports also their weight and size. We used observations at 958 Russian stations for the period 1977-2013 to analyze changes in the ice formation frequency at individual meteorological stations and on the territory of quasi-homogeneous climatic regions in Russia. It was found that hoar frosts are observed in most parts of Russia, but icing only occurs in European Russia and the Far East. On the Arctic coast of Russia, this phenomenon can even be observed in summer months. Statistically significant decreasing trends in occurrence of icing and hoar frost events are found over most of Russia. An increasing trend in icing weights (IWs) was found in the Atlantic Arctic region in autumn. Statistically significant large negative trends in IWs were found in the Pacific Arctic in winter and spring.

  19. Food Security Under Shifting Economic, Demographic, and Climatic Conditions (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naylor, R. L.

    2013-12-01

    Global demand for food, feed, and fuel will continue to rise in a more populous and affluent world. Meeting this demand in the future will become increasingly challenging with global climate change; when production shocks stemming from climate variability are added to the new mean climate state, food markets could become more volatile. This talk will focus on the interacting market effects of demand and supply for major food commodities, with an eye on climate-related supply trends and shocks. Lessons from historical patterns of climate variability (e.g., ENSO and its global teleconnections) will be used to infer potential food security outcomes in the event of abrupt changes in the mean climate state. Domestic food and trade policy responses to crop output and price volatility in key producing and consuming nations, such as export bans and import tariffs, will be discussed as a potentially major destabilizing force, underscoring the important influence of uncertainty in achieving--or failing to achieve--food security.

  20. Climate change impact on shallow groundwater conditions in Hungary: Conclusions from a regional modelling study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kovács, Attila; Marton, Annamária; Tóth, György; Szöcs, Teodóra

    2016-04-01

    A quantitative methodology has been developed for the calculation of groundwater table based on measured and simulated climate parameters. The aim of the study was to develop a toolset which can be used for the calculation of shallow groundwater conditions for various climate scenarios. This was done with the goal of facilitating the assessment of climate impact and vulnerability of shallow groundwater resources. The simulated groundwater table distributions are representative of groundwater conditions at the regional scale. The introduced methodology is valid for modelling purposes at various scales and thus represents a versatile tool for the assessment of climate vulnerability of shallow groundwater bodies. The calculation modules include the following: 1. A toolset to calculate climate zonation from climate parameter grids, 2. Delineation of recharge zones (Hydrological Response Units, HRUs) based on geology, landuse and slope conditions, 3. Calculation of percolation (recharge) rates using 1D analytical hydrological models, 4. Simulation of the groundwater table using numerical groundwater flow models. The applied methodology provides a quantitative link between climate conditions and shallow groundwater conditions, and thus can be used for assessing climate impacts. The climate data source applied in our calculation comprised interpolated daily climate data of the Central European CARPATCLIM database. Climate zones were determined making use of the Thorntwaite climate zonation scheme. Recharge zones (HRUs) were determined based on surface geology, landuse and slope conditions. The HELP hydrological model was used for the calculation of 1D water balance for hydrological response units. The MODFLOW numerical groundwater modelling code was used for the calculation of the water table. The developed methodology was demonstrated through the simulation of regional groundwater table using spatially averaged climate data and hydrogeological properties for various time

  1. Sorafenib in hepatocellular carcinoma: prospective study on adverse events, quality of life, and related feasibility under daily conditions.

    PubMed

    Brunocilla, Paola Rita; Brunello, Franco; Carucci, Patrizia; Gaia, Silvia; Rolle, Emanuela; Cantamessa, Alessandro; Castiglione, Anna; Ciccone, Giovannino; Rizzetto, Mario

    2013-03-01

    Sorafenib is an oral multikinase inhibitor approved for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In two randomized trials, sorafenib was reported to be safe without a significant impact on quality of life (QoL). The aim of this study was to evaluate the occurrence of adverse events, QoL variations, and treatment discontinuations in HCC patients treated with sorafenib. Between November 2009 and March 2011, all patients evaluated as suitable for sorafenib treatment were enrolled. Every patient was invited to complete the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Hepatobiliary Questionnaire before starting therapy, at week 1, and at months 1 and 2. QoL scores were analyzed by the Wilcoxon matched-pairs test. Side effects were classified according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events v.3.0. Thirty-six patients were enrolled. The cumulative incidence of therapy discontinuation for drug-related adverse events was 33 % (95 % confidence interval, 20.2-49.7). The most common adverse event was fatigue (66.7 %). The worst score decrease was detected from baseline to week 1 in physical well-being, with a median reduction of -8.3 (range -60.1 to 17.9; P = 0.0003). Treatment withdrawal from adverse events was higher than previously reported, significant QoL decrease occurred, and estimated feasibility was 66.7 %.

  2. Amplifying Learning through Sites of Pedagogical Practice: A Possible Effect of Working with Disciplinary Technologies in Schools Operating under Adverse Conditions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hayes, Debra

    2005-01-01

    Schools located within communities experiencing high levels of social dislocation, educational disadvantage and student disengagement from learning are working under "adverse conditions". These schools face particular challenges when it comes to stabilising and sustaining wholeschool change aimed at improving students' learning outcomes. In this…

  3. Assessment of mycotoxin risk on corn in the Philippines under current and future climate change conditions.

    PubMed

    Salvacion, Arnold R; Pangga, Ireneo B; Cumagun, Christian Joseph R

    2015-01-01

    This study attempts to assess the risk of mycotoxins (aflatoxins and fumonisins) contamination on corn in the Philippines under current and projected climate change conditions using fuzzy logic methodology based on the published range of temperature and rainfall conditions that favor mycotoxin development. Based on the analysis, projected climatic change will reduce the risk of aflatoxin contamination in the country due to increased rainfall. In the case of fumonisin contamination, most parts of the country are at a very high risk both under current conditions and the projected climate change conditions. PMID:26351797

  4. Assessment of mycotoxin risk on corn in the Philippines under current and future climate change conditions.

    PubMed

    Salvacion, Arnold R; Pangga, Ireneo B; Cumagun, Christian Joseph R

    2015-01-01

    This study attempts to assess the risk of mycotoxins (aflatoxins and fumonisins) contamination on corn in the Philippines under current and projected climate change conditions using fuzzy logic methodology based on the published range of temperature and rainfall conditions that favor mycotoxin development. Based on the analysis, projected climatic change will reduce the risk of aflatoxin contamination in the country due to increased rainfall. In the case of fumonisin contamination, most parts of the country are at a very high risk both under current conditions and the projected climate change conditions.

  5. Genotype and Neuropsychological Response Inhibition as Resilience Promoters for ADHD, ODD, and CD under Conditions of Psychosocial Adversity

    PubMed Central

    Nigg, Joel; Nikolas, Molly; Friderici, Karen; Park, Leeyoung; Zucker, Robert A.

    2008-01-01

    Whereas child personality, IQ, and family factors have been identified as enabling a resilient response to psychosocial adversity, more direct biological resilience factors have been less well delineated. This is particularly so for child ADHD, which has received less attention from a resilience perspective than have associated externalizing disorders. Children from two independent samples were classified as resilient if they avoided developing ADHD, ODD, or CD in the face of family adversity. Two protective factors were examined for their potential relevance to prefrontal brain development: neuropsychological response inhibition, as assessed by the Stop task, and a composite catecholamine genotype risk score. Resilient children were characterized in both samples by more effective response inhibition, although the effect in the second sample was very small. Genotype was measured in Sample 1, and a composite high risk genotype index was developed by summing presence of risk across markers on three genes expressed in prefrontal cortex: dopamine transporter, dopamine D4 receptor, and noradrenergic alpha 2 receptor. Genotype was a reliable resilience indicator against development of ADHD and CD, but not ODD, in the face of psychosocial adversity. Results illustrate potential neurobiological protective factors related to development of prefrontal cortex that may enable children to avoid developing ADHD and CD in the presence of psychosocial adversity. PMID:17705902

  6. Ecosystem resilience despite large-scale altered hydro climatic conditions

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change is predicted to increase both drought frequency and duration, and when coupled with substantial warming, will establish a new hydroclimatological paradigm for many regions. Large-scale, warm droughts have recently impacted North America, Africa, Europe, Amazonia, and Australia result...

  7. Adversity-induced relapse of fear: neural mechanisms and implications for relapse prevention from a study on experimentally induced return-of-fear following fear conditioning and extinction.

    PubMed

    Scharfenort, R; Menz, M; Lonsdorf, T B

    2016-01-01

    The efficacy of current treatments for anxiety disorders is limited by high relapse rates. Relapse of anxiety disorders and addiction can be triggered by exposure to life adversity, but the underlying mechanisms remain unexplored. Seventy-six healthy adults were a priori selected for the presence or absence of adverse experiences during childhood (CA) and recent past (RA; that is, past 12 months). Participants underwent fear conditioning (day 1) and fear extinction and experimental return-of-fear (ROF) induction through reinstatement (a model for adversity-induced relapse; day 2). Ratings, autonomic (skin conductance response) and neuronal activation measures (functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI)) were acquired. Individuals exposed to RA showed a generalized (that is, not CS- specific) fear recall and ROF, whereas unexposed individuals showed differential (that is, CS+ specific) fear recall and ROF on an autonomic level despite no group differences during fear acquisition and extinction learning. These group differences in ROF were accompanied by corresponding activation differences in brain areas known to be involved in fear processing and differentiability/generalization of ROF (that is, hippocampus). In addition, dimensional measures of RA, CA and lifetime adversity were negatively correlated with differential skin conductance responses (SCRs) during ROF and hippocampal activation. As discriminating signals of danger and safety, as well as a tendency for overgeneralization, are core features in clinically anxious populations, these deficits may specifically contribute to relapse risk following exposure to adversity, in particular to recent adversity. Hence, our results may provide first and novel insights into the possible mechanisms mediating enhanced relapse risk following exposure to (recent) adversity, which may guide the development of effective pre- and intervention programs. PMID:27434492

  8. Collaborative Research for Water Resource Management under Climate Change Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brundiers, K.; Garfin, G. M.; Gober, P.; Basile, G.; Bark, R. H.

    2010-12-01

    We present an ongoing project to co-produce science and policy called Collaborative Planning for Climate Change: An Integrated Approach to Water-Planning, Climate Downscaling, and Robust Decision-Making. The project responds to motivations related to dealing with sustainability challenges in research and practice: (a) state and municipal water managers seek research that addresses their planning needs; (b) the scientific literature and funding agencies call for more meaningful engagement between science and policy communities, in ways that address user needs, while advancing basic research; and (c) empirical research contributes to methods for the design and implementation of collaborative projects. To understand how climate change might impact water resources and management in the Southwest US, our project convenes local, state, and federal water management practitioners with climate-, hydrology-, policy-, and decision scientists. Three areas of research inform this collaboration: (a) the role of paleo-hydrology in water resources scenario construction; (b) the types of uncertainties that impact decision-making beyond climate and modeling uncertainty; and (c) basin-scale statistical and dynamical downscaling of climate models to generate hydrologic projections for regional water resources planning. The project engages all participants in the research process, from research design to workshops that build capacity for understanding data generation and sources of uncertainty to the discussion of water management decision contexts. A team of “science-practice translators” facilitates the collaboration between academic and professional communities. In this presentation we contextualize the challenges and opportunities of use-inspired science-policy research collaborations by contrasting the initial project design with the process of implementation. We draw from two sources to derive lessons learned: literature on collaborative research, and evaluations provided by

  9. Measurement of heat stress conditions at cow level and comparison to climate conditions at stationary locations inside a dairy barn.

    PubMed

    Schüller, Laura K; Heuwieser, Wolfgang

    2016-08-01

    The objectives of this study were to examine heat stress conditions at cow level and to investigate the relationship to the climate conditions at 5 different stationary locations inside a dairy barn. In addition, we compared the climate conditions at cow level between primiparous and multiparous cows for a period of 1 week after regrouping. The temperature-humidity index (THI) differed significantly between all stationary loggers. The lowest THI was measured at the window logger in the experimental stall and the highest THI was measured at the central logger in the experimental stall. The THI at the mobile cow loggers was 2·33 THI points higher than at the stationary loggers. Furthermore, the mean daily THI was higher at the mobile cow loggers than at the stationary loggers on all experimental days. The THI in the experimental pen was 0·44 THI points lower when the experimental cow group was located inside the milking parlour. The THI measured at the mobile cow loggers was 1·63 THI points higher when the experimental cow group was located inside the milking parlour. However, there was no significant difference for all climate variables between primiparous and multiparous cows. These results indicate, there is a wide range of climate conditions inside a dairy barn and especially areas with a great distance to a fresh air supply have an increased risk for the occurrence of heat stress conditions. Furthermore, the heat stress conditions are even higher at cow level and cows not only influence their climatic environment, but also generate microclimates within different locations inside the barn. Therefore climate conditions should be obtained at cow level to evaluate the heat stress conditions that dairy cows are actually exposed to. PMID:27600964

  10. The relationship between joint pain and climate conditions in Japan.

    PubMed

    Tokumori, Kimihiko; Wang, Da-Hong; Takigawa, Tomoko; Takaki, Jiro; Ogino, Keiki

    2011-02-01

    This study aimed to determine whether there was any association between the regional climate and the proportion of people with joint pain. Regional climate data between 1971 and 2000 were obtained from the Japan Meteorological Agency. The variables used in the cluster analysis included sunlight hours, amount of precipitation, number of days with precipitation, and temperature. The regional proportion of people with joint pain was obtained from the National Survey for Health in 2001. After performing a cluster analysis, one-way ANOVA and Welch's test were used to determine whether the climate characteristics of the clusters were significantly different. Within each cluster, stepwise multiple linear regression analyses were performed. We found that sunlight hours showed a direct, negative association with the proportion of people with joint pain (adjusted R2=0.532, p=0.016) in cluster 1, which was characterized as the region with the fewest total hours of sunlight, less precipitation, a modest number of rainy days, and low temperature. In the other clusters, the regional female population rate (cluster 2) and the senior population rate (cluster 3, 4) were the primary predictors. We concluded that the degree of exposure to sunlight may play a crucial role in prevention of joint pain. This finding should encourage people to set aside some time for staying outdoors in their daily lives.

  11. The study of climate suitability for grapevine cropping using ecoclimatic indicators under climatic change conditions in France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, I.; Caubel, J.; Cufi, J.; Huard, F.; Launay, M.; deNoblet, N.

    2013-12-01

    Climatic conditions play a fundamental role in the suitability of geographical areas for cropping. In the case of grape, climatic conditions such as water supply and temperatures have an effect of grape quality. In the context of climate change, we could expect changes in overall climatic conditions and so, in grape quality. We proposed to use GETARI (Generic Evaluation Tool of Ecoclimatic Indicators) in order to assess the future climate suitability of two French sites for grape (Vitis vinifera) regarding its quality. GETARI calculates an overall climate suitability index at the annual scale, from a designed evaluation tree. This aggregation tool proposes the major ecophysiological processes taking place during phenological periods, together with the climatic effects that are known to affect their achievement. The effects of climate on the ecophysiological processes are captured by the ecoclimatic indicators, which are agroclimatic indicators calculated over phenological periods. They give information about crop response to climate through ecophysiological or agronomic thresholds. These indicators are normalized and aggregated according to aggregation rules in order to compute an overall climate index. To assess the future climate suitability of two French sites for grape regarding its quality, we designed an evaluation tree from GETARI, by considering the effect of water deficit between flowering and veraison and the effect of water deficit, water excess, heat stress, temperature ranges between day and night, night temperatures and mean temperatures between veraison and harvest. The two sites are located in Burgundy and Rhone valley which are two of the most important vineyards in the world. Ecoclimatic indicators are calculated using phenological cycle of the crop. For this reason we chose Grenache and Pinot Noir as long and short cycle varieties respectively. Flowering, veraison and harvest dates were simulated (Parker et al., 2011; Yiou et al., 2012). Daily

  12. Marine water quality under climate change conditions/scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Zabeo, Alex; Brigolin, Daniele; Carniel, Sandro; Pastres, Roberto; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    The increase of sea temperature and the changes in marine currents are generating impacts on coastal waters such as changes in water biogeochemical and physical parameters (e.g. primary production, pH, salinity) leading to progressive degradation of the marine environment. With the main aim of analysing the potential impacts of climate change on coastal water quality, a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed and applied to coastal marine waters of the North Adriatic (i.e. coastal water bodies of the Veneto and Friuli Venezia Giulia regions, Italy). RRA integrates the outputs of regional models providing information on macronutrients (i.e. dissolved inorganic nitrogen e reactive phosphorus), dissolved oxygen, pH, salinity and temperature, etc., under future climate change scenarios with site-specific environmental and socio-economic indicators (e.g. biotic index, presence and extension of seagrasses, presence of aquaculture). The presented approach uses Geographic Information Systems to manage, analyse, and visualize data and employs Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the integration of stakeholders preferences and experts judgments into the evaluation process. RRA outputs are hazard, exposure, vulnerability, risk and damage maps useful for the identification and prioritization of hot-spot areas and vulnerable targets in the considered region. Therefore, the main aim of this contribution is to apply the RRA methodology to integrate, visualize, and rank according to spatial distribution, physical and chemical data concerning the coastal waters of the North Adriatic Sea in order to predict possible changes of the actual water quality.

  13. Varroa destructor and viruses association in honey bee colonies under different climatic conditions.

    PubMed

    Giacobino, Agostina; Molineri, Ana I; Pacini, Adriana; Fondevila, Norberto; Pietronave, Hernán; Rodríguez, Graciela; Palacio, Alejandra; Bulacio Cagnolo, Natalia; Orellano, Emanuel; Salto, César E; Signorini, Marcelo L; Merke, Julieta

    2016-06-01

    Honey bee colonies are threatened by multiple factors including complex interactions between environmental and diseases such as parasitic mites and viruses. We compared the presence of honeybee-pathogenic viruses and Varroa infestation rate in four apiaries: commercial colonies that received treatment against Varroa and non-treated colonies that did not received any treatment for the last 4 years located in temperate and subtropical climate. In addition, we evaluated the effect of climate and Varroa treatment on deformed wing virus (DWV) amounts. In both climates, DWV was the most prevalent virus, being the only present virus in subtropical colonies. Moreover, colonies from subtropical climate also showed reduced DWV amounts and lower Varroa infestation rates than colonies from temperate climate. Nevertheless, non-treated colonies in both climate conditions are able to survive several years. Environment appears as a key factor interacting with local bee populations and influencing colony survival beyond Varroa and virus presence.

  14. Analysis of climatic conditions and preliminary assessment of alternative cooling strategies for houses in California transition climate zones

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, Y.J.; Zhang, H.

    1995-07-01

    This is a preliminary scoping study done as part of the {open_quotes}Alternatives to Compressive Cooling in California Transition Climates{close_quotes} project, which has the goal of demonstrating that houses in the transitional areas between the coast and the Central Valley of California do not require air-conditioning if they are properly designed and operated. The first part of this report analyzes the climate conditions within the transitional areas, with emphasis on design rather than seasonal conditions. Transitional climates are found to be milder but more variable than those further inland. The design temperatures under the most stringent design criteria, e.g. 0.1 % annual, are similar to those in the Valley, but significantly lower under more relaxed design criteria, e.g., 2% annual frequency. Transition climates also have large day-night temperature swings, indicating significant potential for night cooling, and wet-bulb depressions in excess of 25 F, indicating good potential for evaporative cooling. The second part of the report is a preliminary assessment using DOE-2 computer simulations of the effectiveness of alternative cooling and control strategies in improving indoor comfort conditions in two conventional Title-24 houses modeled in various transition climate locations. The cooling measures studied include increased insulation, light colors, low-emissivity glazing, window overhangs, and exposed floor slab. The control strategies studied include natural and mechanical ventilation, and direct and two-stage evaporative cooling. The results indicate the cooling strategies all have limited effectiveness, and need to be combined to produce significant improvements in indoor comfort. Natural and forced ventilation provide similar improvements in indoor conditions, but during peak cooling periods, these will still be above the comfort zone. Two-stage evaporative coolers can maintain indoor comfort at all hours, but not so direct evaporative coolers.

  15. Soil organic carbon of European forest soils: current stock and projections under climate change conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caddeo, Antonio; Marras, Serena; Spano, Donatella; Sirca, Costantino

    2016-04-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) represents the largest terrestrial carbon pool, and it is subjected to climate change impacts. In Europe, a limited number of studies makes a wide-scale comparison of SOC stock and changes under climate change conditions, and most of them are related to agricultural soils. In this work, the SOC stock of the forested areas of Europe (obtained from the CORINE 2006 Land Use Map) was assessed at 1 km resolution using the agro-ecosystem SOC model CENTURY. The results of the model were compared with independent observational datasets (i.e. LUCAS Topsoil Survey Database). In addition, climate simulations (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) using the CMCC (Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change) and the CORDEX dataset were used to estimate the SOC changes of these areas under climate change conditions.

  16. Climatic Droughts conditions in US during the Past Century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ge, Y.; Apurv, T.; Cai, X.

    2015-12-01

    It has been debated whether drought has become more severe under climate change. Different data sources of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) have been used to address the issue. This study assesses drought frequency in the continental US using two PDSI datasets (generated by Sheffield et al., 2012 and Dai, 2013). The uni-variate return period for three drought characteristics (duration, severity and intensity) and the bi-variate return period based on the Copulas distribution for combinations of duration and severity/intensity are generated in a time series of sequential moving windows with a horizon of 40 years (1900-1939, 1901-1940, …, 1973-2012). This time series will allow us to analyze both short-term (e.g., 10-year) and long-term (e.g., 100-year) droughts. A change point detection method is applied to the generated time series to detect both abrupt and gradual changes of drought in terms of return periods. The detection results can tell whether short-term (e.g., 5-year return period) or long-term (e.g., 100-year return period) droughts have occurred with larger intensity, longer duration, and/or higher severity and when a trend, if existing, in those characteristics began or stopped (e.g., the increasing trend of intensity levels at all return periods began around 1970 at a location in Northern California as shown in Figure 1a). We find some different results when comparing short- and long-term drought events. For examples, the levels of duration, severity and intensity for short-term (e.g., 5-year and 10-year return period) and long-term (e.g., 50-year and 100-year return period) drought events experienced different trends in central Colorado (Figure 1b). This presentation will provide the results for the entire continental U.S. and especially the spatial heterogeneity and distribution of the changes. References A. Dai, Nature Climate Change, 3, 52-58 (2013). J. Sheffield, E.F. Wood, M. L. Roderick, Nature, 491, 435-438 (2012) Figure 1. Levels of

  17. The Effect of Adverse Housing and Neighborhood Conditions on the Development of Diabetes Mellitus among Middle-aged African Americans

    PubMed Central

    Schootman, Mario; Andresen, Elena M.; Wolinsky, Fredric D.; Malmstrom, Theodore K.; Miller, J. Philip; Yan, Yan; Miller, Douglas K.

    2015-01-01

    The authors examined the associations of observed neighborhood (block face) and housing conditions with the incidence of diabetes by using data from 644 subjects in the African-American Health Study (St. Louis area, Missouri). They also investigated five mediating pathways (health behavior, psychosocial, health status, access to medical care, and sociodemographic characteristics) if significant associations were identified. The external appearance of the block the subjects lived on and housing conditions were rated as excellent, good, fair, or poor. Subjects reported about neighborhood desirability. Self-reported diabetes was obtained at baseline and 3 years later. Of 644 subjects without self-reported diabetes, 10.3% reported having diabetes at the 3-year follow-up. Every housing condition rated as fair-poor was associated with an increased risk of diabetes, with odds ratios ranging from 2.53 (95% confidence interval: 1.47, 4.34 for physical condition inside the building) to 1.78 (95% confidence interval: 1.03, 3.07 for cleanliness inside the building) in unadjusted analyses. No association was found between any of the block face conditions or perceived neighborhood conditions and incident diabetes. The odds ratios for the five housing conditions were unaffected when adjusted for the mediating pathways. Poor housing conditions appear to be an independent contributor to the risk of incident diabetes in urban, middle-aged African Americans. PMID:17625220

  18. Is the impact of future climate change on hydro-climatic conditions significant? - A climate change study for an Eastern European catchment area.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavlik, Dirk; Söhl, Dennis; Bernhofer, Christian

    2014-05-01

    The future change of climatic conditions is, among others, closely linked to future hydrological changes. One important aspect of these issues is the question of future availability of water resources. A changed climatic water balance, as indicator for potential water availability, has far-reaching consequences for the water cycle, hydrological conditions, ecology, water management, the energy business, agriculture and forestry, and for anthropogenic use of the river. We generated regional climate projections via dynamic downscaling for the catchment area of the Western Bug river in the border area of Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine. The hydro-climatic conditions of the past and their projected future changes in the catchment were analyzed based on 2m-temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and climatic water balance. Up to the end of the century, the used IPCC scenarios B1 and A2 lead to warming for each month in the long-term mean, with highest warming rates in winter. Instead, precipitation does not change in the long-term yearly mean. However, the intra-annual distribution of monthly precipitation sums shifts with an increase in winter and a strong decrease in summer. Combined, this leads to a changed climatic water balance with a stronger deficit in summer and a higher gain in winter. Particular in the south-eastern part of the catchment, the summer deficit cannot be compensated within the annual cycle. It raised the question: are these changes statistically significant and thus robust for use in further impact studies? Using a significance analysis, we found, that climatic changes in temperature, precipitation and potential evaporation and thus the climatic water balance change is most significant for scenario A2 from 2071 to 2100. The temperature changes are significant throughout the year. For the other variables changes are most significant in the late summer months (July, August, and September) and the winter months (December, January, and February

  19. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  20. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  1. Climate condition in the Central Europe during the Weichselian Ice Sheet according to the Educational Global Climate Modeling Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szuman, Izabela; Czernecki, Bartosz

    2010-05-01

    The expansion and retreat of the ice sheet is controlled by climate changes, and from the other hand, a huge ice mass influences on the climate in the regional scale. This mechanism is commonly known as the fact but often without making reconstruction by using climatological modeling. The purpose of our study is to reconstruct the climate condition during the Weichselian Ice Sheet in the Central Europe, especially for Poland and surrounded countries. The Global Climate Model (GCM) is made for predicting climate, but simplified version can be useful for reconstructing paleoclimate. Hence, the simple initial conditions and surface data proposed by the Educational version of the GCM was applied. In our study we used a simplified version of the GCM to calculate main climate characteristics within the time limits c. 21 000 BP - 18 000 BP, which has been previously invented on Columbia University. The model is constructed on grid with a horizontal resolution 8° latitude by 10° longitude and was establish for modeling most of weather conditions based on available paleoclimate data. It is possible to estimate the probable climate condition along the southern ice sheets margin on the basis of output from the GCM and GIS modeling techniques. Above the ice mass occurs local high pressure area, which seriously interfered on atmospheric circulation. Whereas the low pressure systems in the southern part of continent may caused permanent barometric situation, which stimulates wind directions as well as the precipitable water available in the mass of air. The climate on the east-south border of ice margin was colder and drier than on the west-south region, where it was more ocean-reliable and gentle with higher temperatures. The differences in temperature between the western and eastern part of the Central Europe reached few centigrade. Against a background of the mean paleoclimatic situation in the Central Europe there is coming out a question about the particular paleoclimate

  2. Evaluation of thermal perception in schoolyards under Mediterranean climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Antoniadis, D; Katsoulas, N; Papanastasiou, D; Christidou, V; Kittas, C

    2016-03-01

    The aim of this paper was to study qualitatively and quantitatively the thermal perception and corresponding heat stress conditions that prevail in two schoolyards in a coastal city in central Greece. For this purpose, meteorological parameters (i.e., wind speed, temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation) were recorded at 70 and 55 measuring points in the schoolyards, from 14:00 to 15:30 local time, during May and June of 2011. The measuring points were distributed so as to get measurements at points (a) directly exposed to the sun, (b) under the shadow of trees and building structures, and (c) near building structures. Cluster analysis was applied to group observations and revealed places that are microclimatically homogeneous. Thermal perception and heat stress conditions were assessed by means of the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET, °C), and the results are presented in relevant charts. The impact of material's albedo, radiation's reflection by structures and obstacles, and different tree species on thermal perception and heat stress conditions was also assessed. The analysis showed that trees triggered a reduction of incident solar radiation that ranged between 79 and 94 % depending on tree's species, crown dimension, tree height, and leaf area. PET values were mainly affected by solar radiation and wind speed. Trees caused a reduction of up to 37 % in PET values, while a 1-m s(-1) increase in wind speed triggered a reduction of 3.7-5.0 °C in PET value. The effective shading area in the two schoolyards was small, being 27.5 and 11 %. The results of this study could be exploited by urban planning managers when designing or improving the outdoor environment of a school complex. PMID:26190284

  3. Evaluation of thermal perception in schoolyards under Mediterranean climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antoniadis, D.; Katsoulas, N.; Papanastasiou, D.; Christidou, V.; Kittas, C.

    2016-03-01

    The aim of this paper was to study qualitatively and quantitatively the thermal perception and corresponding heat stress conditions that prevail in two schoolyards in a coastal city in central Greece. For this purpose, meteorological parameters (i.e., wind speed, temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation) were recorded at 70 and 55 measuring points in the schoolyards, from 14:00 to 15:30 local time, during May and June of 2011. The measuring points were distributed so as to get measurements at points (a) directly exposed to the sun, (b) under the shadow of trees and building structures, and (c) near building structures. Cluster analysis was applied to group observations and revealed places that are microclimatically homogeneous. Thermal perception and heat stress conditions were assessed by means of the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET, °C), and the results are presented in relevant charts. The impact of material's albedo, radiation's reflection by structures and obstacles, and different tree species on thermal perception and heat stress conditions was also assessed. The analysis showed that trees triggered a reduction of incident solar radiation that ranged between 79 and 94 % depending on tree's species, crown dimension, tree height, and leaf area. PET values were mainly affected by solar radiation and wind speed. Trees caused a reduction of up to 37 % in PET values, while a 1-m s-1 increase in wind speed triggered a reduction of 3.7-5.0 °C in PET value. The effective shading area in the two schoolyards was small, being 27.5 and 11 %. The results of this study could be exploited by urban planning managers when designing or improving the outdoor environment of a school complex.

  4. Attributing Climate Conditions for Stable Malaria Transmission to Human Activity in sub-Saharan Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheldrake, L.; Mitchell, D.; Allen, M. R.

    2015-12-01

    Temperature and precipitation limit areas of stable malaria transmission, but the effects of climate change on the disease remain controversial. Previously, studies have not separated the influence of anthropogenic climate change and natural variability, despite being an essential step in the attribution of climate change impacts. Ensembles of 2900 simulations of regional climate in sub-Saharan Africa for the year 2013, one representing realistic conditions and the other how climate might have been in the absence of human influence, were used to force a P.falciparium climate suitability model developed by the Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa project. Strongest signals were detected in areas of unstable transmission, indicating their heightened sensitivity to climatic factors. Evidently, impacts of human-induced climate change were unevenly distributed: the probability of conditions being suitable for stable malaria transmission were substantially reduced (increased) in the Sahel (Greater Horn of Africa (GHOA), particularly in the Ethiopian and Kenyan highlands). The length of the transmission season was correspondingly shortened in the Sahel and extended in the GHOA, by 1 to 2 months, including in Kericho (Kenya), where the role of climate change in driving recent malaria occurrence is hotly contested. Human-induced warming was primarily responsible for positive anomalies in the GHOA, while reduced rainfall caused negative anomalies in the Sahel. The latter was associated with anthropogenic impacts on the West African Monsoon, but uncertainty in the RCM's ability to reproduce precipitation trends in the region weakens confidence in the result. That said, outputs correspond well with broad-scale changes in observed endemicity, implying a potentially important contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the malaria burden during the past century. Results support the health-framing of climate risk and help indicate hotspots of climate vulnerability, providing

  5. Extreme Air Pollution Conditions Adversely Affect Blood Pressure and Insulin Resistance: The Air Pollution and Cardiometabolic Disease Study.

    PubMed

    Brook, Robert D; Sun, Zhichao; Brook, Jeffrey R; Zhao, Xiaoyi; Ruan, Yanping; Yan, Jianhua; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Rao, Xiaoquan; Duan, Fengkui; Sun, Lixian; Liang, Ruijuan; Lian, Hui; Zhang, Shuyang; Fang, Quan; Gu, Dongfeng; Sun, Qinghua; Fan, Zhongjie; Rajagopalan, Sanjay

    2016-01-01

    Mounting evidence supports that fine particulate matter adversely affects cardiometabolic diseases particularly in susceptible individuals; however, health effects induced by the extreme concentrations within megacities in Asia are not well described. We enrolled 65 nonsmoking adults with metabolic syndrome and insulin resistance in the Beijing metropolitan area into a panel study of 4 repeated visits across 4 seasons since 2012. Daily ambient fine particulate matter and personal black carbon levels ranged from 9.0 to 552.5 µg/m(3) and 0.2 to 24.5 µg/m(3), respectively, with extreme levels observed during January 2013. Cumulative fine particulate matter exposure windows across the prior 1 to 7 days were significantly associated with systolic blood pressure elevations ranging from 2.0 (95% confidence interval, 0.3-3.7) to 2.7 (0.6-4.8) mm Hg per SD increase (67.2 µg/m(3)), whereas cumulative black carbon exposure during the previous 2 to 5 days were significantly associated with ranges in elevations in diastolic blood pressure from 1.3 (0.0-2.5) to 1.7 (0.3-3.2) mm Hg per SD increase (3.6 µg/m(3)). Both black carbon and fine particulate matter were significantly associated with worsening insulin resistance (0.18 [0.01-0.36] and 0.22 [0.04-0.39] unit increase per SD increase of personal-level black carbon and 0.18 [0.02-0.34] and 0.22 [0.08-0.36] unit increase per SD increase of ambient fine particulate matter on lag days 4 and 5). These results provide important global public health warnings that air pollution may pose a risk to cardiometabolic health even at the extremely high concentrations faced by billions of people in the developing world today. PMID:26573709

  6. Extreme Air Pollution Conditions Adversely Affect Blood Pressure and Insulin Resistance: The Air Pollution and Cardiometabolic Disease Study.

    PubMed

    Brook, Robert D; Sun, Zhichao; Brook, Jeffrey R; Zhao, Xiaoyi; Ruan, Yanping; Yan, Jianhua; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Rao, Xiaoquan; Duan, Fengkui; Sun, Lixian; Liang, Ruijuan; Lian, Hui; Zhang, Shuyang; Fang, Quan; Gu, Dongfeng; Sun, Qinghua; Fan, Zhongjie; Rajagopalan, Sanjay

    2016-01-01

    Mounting evidence supports that fine particulate matter adversely affects cardiometabolic diseases particularly in susceptible individuals; however, health effects induced by the extreme concentrations within megacities in Asia are not well described. We enrolled 65 nonsmoking adults with metabolic syndrome and insulin resistance in the Beijing metropolitan area into a panel study of 4 repeated visits across 4 seasons since 2012. Daily ambient fine particulate matter and personal black carbon levels ranged from 9.0 to 552.5 µg/m(3) and 0.2 to 24.5 µg/m(3), respectively, with extreme levels observed during January 2013. Cumulative fine particulate matter exposure windows across the prior 1 to 7 days were significantly associated with systolic blood pressure elevations ranging from 2.0 (95% confidence interval, 0.3-3.7) to 2.7 (0.6-4.8) mm Hg per SD increase (67.2 µg/m(3)), whereas cumulative black carbon exposure during the previous 2 to 5 days were significantly associated with ranges in elevations in diastolic blood pressure from 1.3 (0.0-2.5) to 1.7 (0.3-3.2) mm Hg per SD increase (3.6 µg/m(3)). Both black carbon and fine particulate matter were significantly associated with worsening insulin resistance (0.18 [0.01-0.36] and 0.22 [0.04-0.39] unit increase per SD increase of personal-level black carbon and 0.18 [0.02-0.34] and 0.22 [0.08-0.36] unit increase per SD increase of ambient fine particulate matter on lag days 4 and 5). These results provide important global public health warnings that air pollution may pose a risk to cardiometabolic health even at the extremely high concentrations faced by billions of people in the developing world today.

  7. Effects of future climate conditions on terrestrial export from coastal southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, D.; Zhao, Y.; Raoufi, R.; Beighley, E.; Melack, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    The Santa Barbara Coastal - Long Term Ecological Research Project (SBC-LTER) is focused on investigating the relative importance of land and ocean processes in structuring giant kelp forest ecosystems. Understanding how current and future climate conditions influence terrestrial export is a central theme for the project. Here we combine the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model and daily precipitation and temperature downscaled using statistical downscaling based on localized constructed Analogs (LOCA) to estimate recent streamflow dynamics (2000 to 2014) and future conditions (2015 to 2100). The HRR model covers the SBC-LTER watersheds from just west of the Ventura River to Point Conception; a land area of roughly 800 km2 with 179 watersheds ranging from 0.1 to 123 km2. The downscaled climate conditions have a spatial resolution of 6 km by 6 km. Here, we use the Penman-Monteith method with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) limited climate data approximations and land surface conditions (albedo, leaf area index, land cover) measured from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites to estimate potential evapotranspiration (PET). The HRR model is calibrated for the period 2000 to 2014 using USGS and LTER streamflow. An automated calibration technique is used. For future climate scenarios, we use mean 8-day land cover conditions. Future streamflow, ET and soil moisture statistics are presented and based on downscaled P and T from ten climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5).

  8. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Reeves, T.L.; Turner, J.P.; Hasfurther, V.R.; Skinner, Q.D.

    1992-06-01

    The scope of this program is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large scale research sufficient to describe commercial scale embankment behavior. The large scale approach was accomplished by establishing five lysimeters, each 7.3 [times] 3.0 [times] 3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process. Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by RBOSC to carry out this study. Research objectives were designed to evaluate hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical properties and conditions which would affect the design and performance of large-scale embankments. The objectives of this research are: assess the unsaturated movement and redistribution of water and the development of potential saturated zones and drainage in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the unsaturated movement of solubles and major chemical constituents in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the physical and constitutive properties of the processed oil shale and determine potential changes in these properties caused by disposal and weathering by natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the use of previously developed computer model(s) to describe the infiltration, unsaturated movement, redistribution, and drainage of water in disposed processed oil shale; evaluate the stability of field scale processed oil shale solid waste embankments using computer models.

  9. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Reeves, T.L.; Turner, J.P.; Hasfurther, V.R.; Skinner, Q.D.

    1992-06-01

    The scope of this program is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large scale research sufficient to describe commercial scale embankment behavior. The large scale approach was accomplished by establishing five lysimeters, each 7.3 {times} 3.0 {times} 3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process. Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by RBOSC to carry out this study. Research objectives were designed to evaluate hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical properties and conditions which would affect the design and performance of large-scale embankments. The objectives of this research are: assess the unsaturated movement and redistribution of water and the development of potential saturated zones and drainage in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the unsaturated movement of solubles and major chemical constituents in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the physical and constitutive properties of the processed oil shale and determine potential changes in these properties caused by disposal and weathering by natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the use of previously developed computer model(s) to describe the infiltration, unsaturated movement, redistribution, and drainage of water in disposed processed oil shale; evaluate the stability of field scale processed oil shale solid waste embankments using computer models.

  10. Key factors affecting urban runoff pollution under cold climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valtanen, Marjo; Sillanpää, Nora; Setälä, Heikki

    2015-10-01

    Urban runoff contains various pollutants and has the potential of deteriorating the quality of aquatic ecosystems. In this study our objective is to shed light on the factors that control the runoff water quality in urbanized catchments. The effects of runoff event characteristics, land use type and catchment imperviousness on event mass loads (EML) and event mean concentrations (EMC) were studied during warm and cold periods in three study catchments (6.1, 6.5 and 12.6 ha in size) in the city of Lahti, Finland. Runoff and rainfall were measured continuously for two years at each catchment. Runoff samples were taken for total nutrients (tot-P and tot-N), total suspended solids (TSS), heavy metals (Zn, Cr, Al, Co, Ni, Cu, Pb, Mn) and total organic carbon (TOC). Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis (SMLR) was used to identify general relationships between the following variables: event water quality, runoff event characteristics and catchment characteristics. In general, the studied variables explained 50-90% of the EMLs but only 30-60% of the EMCs, with runoff duration having an important role in most of the SMLR models. Mean runoff intensity or peak flow was also often included in the runoff quality models. Yet, the importance (being the first, second or third best) and role (negative or positive impact) of the explanatory variables varied between the cold and warm period. Land use type often explained cold period concentrations, but imperviousness alone explained EMCs weakly. As for EMLs, the influence of imperviousness and/or land use was season and pollutant dependent. The study suggests that pollutant loads can be - throughout the year - adequately predicted by runoff characteristics given that seasonal differences are taken into account. Although pollutant concentrations were sensitive to variation in seasonal and catchment conditions as well, the accurate estimation of EMCs would require a more complete set of explanatory factors than used in this

  11. Egg phenotype matching by cuckoos in relation to discrimination by hosts and climatic conditions

    PubMed Central

    Avilés, Jesús M.; Vikan, Johan R.; Fossøy, Frode; Antonov, Anton; Moksnes, Arne; Røskaft, Eivin; Shykoff, Jacqui A.; Møller, Anders P.; Stokke, Bård G.

    2012-01-01

    Although parasites and their hosts often coexist in a set of environmentally differentiated populations connected by gene flow, few empirical studies have considered a role of environmental variation in shaping correlations between traits of hosts and parasites. Here, we studied for the first time the association between the frequency of adaptive parasitic common cuckoo Cuculus canorus phenotypes in terms of egg matching and level of defences exhibited by its reed warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus hosts across seven geographically distant populations in Europe. We also explored the influence of spring climatic conditions experienced by cuckoos and hosts on cuckoo–host egg matching. We found that between-population differences in host defences against cuckoos (i.e. rejection rate) covaried with between-population differences in degree of matching. Between-population differences in host egg phenotype were associated with between-population differences in parasitism rate and spring climatic conditions, but not with host level of defences. Between-population differences in cuckoo egg phenotype covaried with between-population differences in host defences and spring climatic conditions. However, differences in host defences still explained differences in mimicry once differences in climatic conditions were controlled, suggesting that selection exerted by host defences must be strong relative to selection imposed by climatic factors on egg phenotypes. PMID:22237911

  12. A probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of vegetation drought under varying climate conditions across China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Zhiyong; Li, Chao; Zhou, Ping; Chen, Xiuzhi

    2016-10-01

    Climate change significantly impacts the vegetation growth and terrestrial ecosystems. Using satellite remote sensing observations, here we focus on investigating vegetation dynamics and the likelihood of vegetation-related drought under varying climate conditions across China. We first compare temporal trends of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and climatic variables over China. We find that in fact there is no significant change in vegetation over the cold regions where warming is significant. Then, we propose a joint probability model to estimate the likelihood of vegetation-related drought conditioned on different precipitation/temperature scenarios in growing season across China. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to examine the vegetation-related drought risk over China from a perspective based on joint probability. Our results demonstrate risk patterns of vegetation-related drought under both low and high precipitation/temperature conditions. We further identify the variations in vegetation-related drought risk under different climate conditions and the sensitivity of drought risk to climate variability. These findings provide insights for decision makers to evaluate drought risk and vegetation-related develop drought mitigation strategies over China in a warming world. The proposed methodology also has a great potential to be applied for vegetation-related drought risk assessment in other regions worldwide.

  13. A probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of vegetation drought under varying climate conditions across China

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Zhiyong; Li, Chao; Zhou, Ping; Chen, Xiuzhi

    2016-01-01

    Climate change significantly impacts the vegetation growth and terrestrial ecosystems. Using satellite remote sensing observations, here we focus on investigating vegetation dynamics and the likelihood of vegetation-related drought under varying climate conditions across China. We first compare temporal trends of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and climatic variables over China. We find that in fact there is no significant change in vegetation over the cold regions where warming is significant. Then, we propose a joint probability model to estimate the likelihood of vegetation-related drought conditioned on different precipitation/temperature scenarios in growing season across China. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to examine the vegetation-related drought risk over China from a perspective based on joint probability. Our results demonstrate risk patterns of vegetation-related drought under both low and high precipitation/temperature conditions. We further identify the variations in vegetation-related drought risk under different climate conditions and the sensitivity of drought risk to climate variability. These findings provide insights for decision makers to evaluate drought risk and vegetation-related develop drought mitigation strategies over China in a warming world. The proposed methodology also has a great potential to be applied for vegetation-related drought risk assessment in other regions worldwide. PMID:27713530

  14. Catchment Sensitivity to Changing Climate Conditions: Does the Landscape Control Hydrological Responses?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quesada Montano, B.; Teutschbein, C.; Grabs, T.; Karlsen, R.; Laudon, H.; Bishop, K. H.

    2015-12-01

    It has long been recognized that streamflow-generating processes are not only dependent on climatic conditions, but also affected by physical catchment properties such as topography, geology, soils and land cover. We hypothesize that these landscape characteristics do not only lead to highly variable hydrologic behavior of rather similar catchments under the same stationary climate conditions, but that they also play a fundamental role for the sensitivity of a catchment to a changing climate. A multi-model ensemble based on 15 regional climate models was combined with a multi-catchment approach to explore the hydrologic sensitivity of 14 partially nested and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden to changing climate conditions and the importance of small-scale spatial variability. Current (1981-2010) and future (2061-2090) streamflow was simulated with the HBV model. As expected, projected increases in temperature and precipitation resulted in increased total available streamflow, with lower spring and summer flows, but substantially higher winter streamflow. Furthermore, significant changes in flow durations with lower chances of both high and low flows can be expected in boreal Sweden in the future. This overall trend in projected streamflow pattern changes was comparable among the analyzed catchments while the magnitude of change differed considerably. This suggests that catchments belonging to the same region can show distinctly different degrees of hydrological responses to the same external climate change signal. We reason that differences in spatially distributed physical catchment properties at smaller scales are not only of great importance for current streamflow behavior, but also play a major role as first-order control for the sensitivity of catchments to changing climate conditions.

  15. Catchment Sensitivity to Changing Climate Conditions: The Importance of Landscape Characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teutschbein, Claudia; Karlsen, Reinert; Grabs, Thomas; Laudon, Hjalmar; Bishop, Kevin

    2015-04-01

    The scientific literature is full of studies analyzing future climate change impacts on hydrology with focus on individual catchments. We recently found, however, that hydrologic behavior and specific discharge vary considerably even in neighboring and rather similar catchments under current climate conditions and that these variations are related to landscape characteristics. Therefore we hypothesize that these landscape characteristics also play a fundamental role for the sensitivity of a catchment to changing climate conditions. We analyzed the hydrological response of 14 partially nested catchments in Northern Sweden with slightly different topography, land cover, size and geology. Current (1981-2010) and future (2061-2090) streamflows were simulated with the hydrological model HBV light based on 15 regional climate model projections that were bias-corrected with a distribution-mapping approach. Our simulations revealed that - in a future climate- the total annual streamflow will be higher, spring flood peaks will occur earlier and decrease considerably, whereas winter base flows will more than double. These changes are somewhat expected and mainly triggered by a projected increase in winter temperature, which leads to less snow accumulation on the ground. However, our results also show that there is a large variability amongst these catchments in their hydrological response to the same future climate conditions. We identified wetlands, lakes, peat soils and higher elevations as factors that had a stronger effect on spring floods, whereas catchments dominated by forests, steeper slopes and till soils showed stronger responses in winter base flows and total annual streamflow. Therefore, our results suggest that the sensitivity of catchments to future climate conditions is strongly linked to landscape characteristics and also depends on the streamflow characteristic as well as season analyzed.

  16. Sensitivity of Pliocene climate simulations in MRI-CGCM2.3 to respective boundary conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamae, Youichi; Yoshida, Kohei; Ueda, Hiroaki

    2016-08-01

    Accumulations of global proxy data are essential steps for improving reliability of climate model simulations for the Pliocene warming climate. In the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PlioMIP2), a part project of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4, boundary forcing data have been updated from the PlioMIP phase 1 due to recent advances in understanding of oceanic, terrestrial and cryospheric aspects of the Pliocene palaeoenvironment. In this study, sensitivities of Pliocene climate simulations to the newly archived boundary conditions are evaluated by a set of simulations using an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model, MRI-CGCM2.3. The simulated Pliocene climate is warmer than pre-industrial conditions for 2.4 °C in global mean, corresponding to 0.6 °C warmer than the PlioMIP1 simulation by the identical climate model. Revised orography, lakes, and shrunk ice sheets compared with the PlioMIP1 lead to local and remote influences including snow and sea ice albedo feedback, and poleward heat transport due to the atmosphere and ocean that result in additional warming over middle and high latitudes. The amplified higher-latitude warming is supported qualitatively by the proxy evidences, but is still underestimated quantitatively. Physical processes responsible for the global and regional climate changes should be further addressed in future studies under systematic intermodel and data-model comparison frameworks.

  17. Foliar photochemical processes and carbon metabolism under favourable and adverse winter conditions in a Mediterranean mixed forest, Catalonia (Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sperlich, D.; Chang, C. T.; Peñuelas, J.; Gracia, C.; Sabaté, S.

    2014-06-01

    Evergreen trees in the Mediterranean region must cope with a wide range of environmental stresses from summer drought to winter cold. The mildness of Mediterranean winters can periodically lead to favourable environmental conditions above the threshold for a positive carbon balance, benefitting evergreen woody species more than deciduous ones. The comparatively lower solar energy input in winter decreases the foliar light saturation point. This leads to a higher susceptibility to photoinhibitory stress especially when chilly (< 12 °C) or freezing temperatures (< 0 °C) coincide with clear skies and relatively high solar irradiances. Nonetheless, the advantage of evergreen species that are able to photosynthesize all year round where a significant fraction can be attributed to winter months, compensates for the lower carbon uptake during spring and summer in comparison to deciduous species. We investigated the ecophysiological behaviour of three co-occurring mature evergreen tree species (Quercus ilex L., Pinus halepensis Mill., and Arbutus unedo L.) during a period of mild winter conditions and their responses to a sudden cold period. The state of the photosynthetic machinery in both periods was thus tested by estimating the foliar photosynthetic potential with CO2 response curves in parallel with chlorophyll fluorescence measurements. The studied evergreen tree species benefited strongly from mild winter conditions by exhibiting extraordinarily high photosynthetic potentials similar to those under spring conditions. A sudden period of frost, however, negatively affected the photosynthetic apparatus, leading to significant decreases in key physiological parameters such as the maximum carboxylation velocity (Vc, max), the maximum photosynthetic electron transport rate (Jmax), and the optimal fluorometric quantum yield of photosystem II (Fv/Fm). This change persisted for several weeks after the cold period despite the recovery of the temperature to the conditions

  18. Foliar photochemical processes and carbon metabolism under favourable and adverse winter conditions in a Mediterranean mixed forest, Catalonia (Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sperlich, D.; Chang, C. T.; Peñuelas, J.; Gracia, C.; Sabaté, S.

    2014-10-01

    Evergreen trees in the Mediterranean region must cope with a wide range of environmental stresses from summer drought to winter cold. The mildness of Mediterranean winters can periodically lead to favourable environmental conditions above the threshold for a positive carbon balance, benefitting evergreen woody species more than deciduous ones. The comparatively lower solar energy input in winter decreases the foliar light saturation point. This leads to a higher susceptibility to photoinhibitory stress especially when chilly (< 12 °C) or freezing temperatures (< 0 °C) coincide with clear skies and relatively high solar irradiances. Nonetheless, the advantage of evergreen species that are able to photosynthesize all year round where a significant fraction can be attributed to winter months, compensates for the lower carbon uptake during spring and summer in comparison to deciduous species. We investigated the ecophysiological behaviour of three co-occurring mature evergreen tree species (Quercus ilex L., Pinus halepensis Mill., and Arbutus unedo L.). Therefore, we collected twigs from the field during a period of mild winter conditions and after a sudden cold period. After both periods, the state of the photosynthetic machinery was tested in the laboratory by estimating the foliar photosynthetic potential with CO2 response curves in parallel with chlorophyll fluorescence measurements. The studied evergreen tree species benefited strongly from mild winter conditions by exhibiting extraordinarily high photosynthetic potentials. A sudden period of frost, however, negatively affected the photosynthetic apparatus, leading to significant decreases in key physiological parameters such as the maximum carboxylation velocity (Vc, max), the maximum photosynthetic electron transport rate (Jmax), and the optimal fluorometric quantum yield of photosystem II (Fv/Fm). The responses of Vc, max and Jmax were highly species specific, with Q. ilex exhibiting the highest and P

  19. Environmental Risk of Climate Change and Groundwater Abstraction on Ecological Conditions in a Danish Catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seaby, L. P.; Boegh, E.; Jensen, N. H.

    2014-12-01

    The Danish drinking water supply is sourced almost entirely from groundwater. Balancing water abstraction demands and the ecological conditions in streams is one of the major challenges for water resource managers. With projected climate change, characterised by increased annual temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration rates for Denmark, the impact to low flows and groundwater levels are especially of interest, as they relate to aquatic habitat and nitrate leaching, respectively. On the island Sjælland, which includes urban and agricultural regions, a doubling of groundwater abstraction rates has been proposed in selected areas to meet water resource demands. This study evaluates the risk to stream ecological conditions for a lowland Danish catchment under multiple scenarios of climate change and groundwater abstraction. Projections of future climate (i.e. precipitation, temperature, reference evapotranspiration) come from the ENSEMBLES climate modelling project. Climate variables from 11 climate models are first bias corrected with a distribution based scaling (DBS) method (Seaby et al., 2013) and then used to force hydrological simulations of stream discharge, groundwater recharge, and nitrate leaching from the root zone under present (1991-2010) and future (2071-2100) climate conditions. Hydrological modelling utilises a sequential coupling methodology with DAISY, a one dimensional crop model describing soil water dynamics in the root zone, and MIKE SHE, a distributed groundwater-surface water model which the National Water Resources Model (DK-model) is set up in (Henriksen et al., 2003). We find low flow and annual discharge to be most impacted by scenarios of climate change, with high variation across climate models (+/- 40% change). Doubling of current groundwater abstraction rates reduces annual discharge by approximately 20%, with higher reductions to low flows seen around 40%. The combined effects of climate change and increased groundwater

  20. Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

    2013-04-01

    Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been

  1. Modeling the effect of adverse environmental conditions and clothing on temperature rise in a human body exposed to radio frequency electromagnetic fields.

    PubMed

    Moore, Stephen M; McIntosh, Robert L; Iskra, Steve; Wood, Andrew W

    2015-02-01

    This study considers the computationally determined thermal profile of a fully clothed, finely discretized, heterogeneous human body model, subject to the maximum allowable reference level for a 1-GHz radio frequency electromagnetic field for a worker, and also subject to adverse environmental conditions, including high humidity and high ambient temperature. An initial observation is that while electromagnetic fields at the occupational safety limit will contribute an additional thermal load to the tissues, and subsequently, cause an elevated temperature, the magnitude of this effect is far outweighed by that due to the conditions including the ambient temperature, relative humidity, and the type of clothing worn. It is envisaged that the computational modeling approach outlined in this paper will be suitably modified in future studies to evaluate the thermal response of a body at elevated metabolic rates, and for different body shapes and sizes including children and pregnant women.

  2. Thermal state of permafrost in urban environment under changing climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grebenets, V. I.; Kerimov, A. G.; Shiklomanov, N. I.; Streletskiy, D. A.; Shkoda, V. S.; Anduschenko, F. D.

    2014-12-01

    Large industrial centers on permafrost are characterized by a set of geocryological conditions different from natural environment. Thermal state of foundations on permafrost in areas of economic development depends on climate trends and upon technogenic impacts, such as type of impact, area of facility, permafrost temperature and duration of the technogenic pressure. Technogenic degradation of permafrost is evident in most urban centers on permafrost leading to deterioration of geotechnical environment and particularly foundations of buildings and structures. This situation is exacerbated by climate warming in such cities as Vorkuta, Chita, Nerungry, Salekhard and others where temperature rises at a rate of 0.4 - 1.2 oC/decade over the last 40 years. To evaluate impact of climate warming and technogenic factors on permafrost temperature regime and foundation bearing capacity we compared five facilities in Norilsk, the largest city on permafrost. The facilities were selected to represent different parts of the town, different ages of built-up environment and were located in different permafrost and lithological conditions. We found a leading role of technogenic factors relative to climatic ones in dynamics of thermal state of permafrost in urban environment. Climate warming in Norilsk (0.15 oC/decade) was a small contributor, but gave an additional input to deterioration of geotechnical environment on permafrost. At the same time, implementation of engineering solutions of permafrost temperature cooling (such as crawl spaces) result in lowering of permafrost temperature. Field surveys in Yamburg showed that under some facilities permafrost temperature decreased by 1-1.5 C oC over the last 15 years despite pronounced in the region climate warming of 0.5 oC/decade. This shows that despite deterioration of permafrost conditions in the most Arctic regions due to technogenic pressure and climate warming, implementation of adequate engineering solutions allows

  3. Frog population viability under present and future climate conditions: a Bayesian state-space approach.

    PubMed

    McCaffery, R; Solonen, A; Crone, E

    2012-09-01

    1. World-wide extinctions of amphibians are at the forefront of the biodiversity crisis, with climate change figuring prominently as a potential driver of continued amphibian decline. As in other taxa, changes in both the mean and variability of climate conditions may affect amphibian populations in complex, unpredictable ways. In western North America, climate models predict a reduced duration and extent of mountain snowpack and increased variability in precipitation, which may have consequences for amphibians inhabiting montane ecosystems. 2. We used Bayesian capture-recapture methods to estimate survival and transition probabilities in a high-elevation population of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) over 10 years and related these rates to interannual variation in peak snowpack. Then, we forecasted frog population growth and viability under a range of scenarios with varying levels of change in mean and variance in snowpack. 3. Over a range of future scenarios, changes in mean snowpack had a greater effect on viability than changes in the variance of snowpack, with forecasts largely predicting an increase in population viability. Population models based on snowpack during our study period predicted a declining population. 4. Although mean conditions were more important for viability than variance, for a given mean snowpack depth, increases in variability could change a population from increasing to decreasing. Therefore, the influence of changing climate variability on populations should be accounted for in predictive models. The Bayesian modelling framework allows for the explicit characterization of uncertainty in parameter estimates and ecological forecasts, and thus provides a natural approach for examining relative contributions of mean and variability in climatic variables to population dynamics. 5. Longevity and heterogeneous habitat may contribute to the potential for this amphibian species to be resilient to increased climatic variation, and

  4. Assessment of production risks for winter wheat in different German regions under climate change conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kersebaum, K. C.; Gandorfer, M.; Wegehenkel, M.

    2012-04-01

    The study shows climate change impacts on wheat production in selected regions across Germany. To estimate yield and economic effects the agro-ecosystem model HERMES was used. The model performed runs using 2 different releases of the model WETTREG providing statistically downscaled climate change scenarios for the weather station network of the German Weather Service. Simulations were done using intersected GIS information on soil types and land use identifying the most relevant sites for wheat production. The production risks for wheat yields at the middle of this century were compared to a reference of the present climate. The irrigation demand was determined by the model using an automatic irrigation mode. Production risks with and without irrigation were assessed and the economic feasibility to reduce production risks by irrigation was evaluated. Costs and benefits were compared. Additionally, environmental effects, e.g. groundwater recharge and nitrogen emissions were assessed for irrigated and rain fed systems. Results show that positive and negative effects of climate change occur within most regions depending on the site conditions. Water holding capacity and groundwater distance were the most important factors which determined the vulnerability of sites. Under climate change condition in the middle of the next century we can expect especially at sites with low water holding capacity decreasing average gross margins, higher production risks and a reduced nitrogen use efficiency under rainfed conditions. Irrigation seems to be profitable and risk reducing at those sites, provided that water for irrigation is available. Additionally, the use of irrigation can also increase nitrogen use efficiency which reduced emissions by leaching. Despite the site conditions results depend strongly on the used regional climate scenario and the model approach to consider the effect of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere.

  5. Threats to xylem hydraulic function of trees under 'new climate normal' conditions.

    PubMed

    Zwieniecki, Maciej A; Secchi, Francesca

    2015-09-01

    Climate models predict increases in frequency and intensity of extreme environmental conditions, such as changes to minimum and maximum temperatures, duration of drought periods, intensity of rainfall/snowfall events and wind strength. These local extremes, rather than average climatic conditions, are closely linked to woody plant survival, as trees cope with such events over long lifespans. While the xylem provides trees with structural strength and is considered the most robust part of a tree's structure, it is also the most physiologically vulnerable as tree survival depends on its ability to sustain water supply to the tree crown under variable environmental conditions. Many structural, functional and biological tree properties evolved to protect xylem from loss of transport function because of embolism or to restore xylem transport capacity following embolism formation. How 'the new climate normal' conditions will affect these evolved strategies is yet to be seen. Our understanding of xylem physiology and current conceptual models describing embolism formation and plant recovery from water stress, however, can provide insight into near-future challenges that woody plants will face. In addition, knowledge of species-specific properties of xylem function may help guide mitigation of climate change impacts on woody plants in natural and agricultural tree communities.

  6. Middle Pliocene vegetation: Reconstructions, paleoclimatic inferences, and boundary conditions for climate modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thompson, R.S.; Fleming, R.F.

    1996-01-01

    The general characteristics of global vegetation during the middle Pliocene warm period can be reconstructed from fossil pollen and plant megafossil data. The largest differences between Pliocene vegetation and that of today occurred at high latitudes in both hemispheres, where warming was pronounced relative to today. In the Northern Hemisphere coniferous forests lived in the modern tundra and polar desert regions, whereas in the Southern Hemisphere southern beech apparently grew in coastal areas of Antarctica. Pliocene middle latitude vegetation differed less, although moister-than-modern conditions supported forest and woodland growth in some regions now covered by steppe or grassland. Pliocene tropical vegetation reflects essentially modern conditions in some regions and slightly cooler-than-or warmer-than- modern climates in other areas. Changes in topography induced by tectonics may be responsible for many of the climatic changes since the Pliocene in both middle and lower latitudes. However, the overall latitudinal progression of climatic conditions on land parallels that seen in the reconstruction of middle Pliocene sea-surface temperatures. Pliocene paleovegetational data was employed to construct a 2????2?? global grid of estimated mid-Pliocene vegetational cover for use as boundary conditions for numerical General Circulation Model simulations of middle Pliocene climates. Continental outlines and topography were first modified to represent the Pliocene landscape on the 2????2?? grid. A modern 1????1?? vegetation grid was simplified and mapped on this Pliocene grid, and then modified following general geographic trends evident in the Pliocene paleovegetation data set.

  7. One-against-All Weighted Dynamic Time Warping for Language-Independent and Speaker-Dependent Speech Recognition in Adverse Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Xianglilan; Sun, Jiping; Luo, Zhigang

    2014-01-01

    Considering personal privacy and difficulty of obtaining training material for many seldom used English words and (often non-English) names, language-independent (LI) with lightweight speaker-dependent (SD) automatic speech recognition (ASR) is a promising option to solve the problem. The dynamic time warping (DTW) algorithm is the state-of-the-art algorithm for small foot-print SD ASR applications with limited storage space and small vocabulary, such as voice dialing on mobile devices, menu-driven recognition, and voice control on vehicles and robotics. Even though we have successfully developed two fast and accurate DTW variations for clean speech data, speech recognition for adverse conditions is still a big challenge. In order to improve recognition accuracy in noisy environment and bad recording conditions such as too high or low volume, we introduce a novel one-against-all weighted DTW (OAWDTW). This method defines a one-against-all index (OAI) for each time frame of training data and applies the OAIs to the core DTW process. Given two speech signals, OAWDTW tunes their final alignment score by using OAI in the DTW process. Our method achieves better accuracies than DTW and merge-weighted DTW (MWDTW), as 6.97% relative reduction of error rate (RRER) compared with DTW and 15.91% RRER compared with MWDTW are observed in our extensive experiments on one representative SD dataset of four speakers' recordings. To the best of our knowledge, OAWDTW approach is the first weighted DTW specially designed for speech data in adverse conditions. PMID:24520317

  8. Collaborative Research. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks of the Terrestrial Biosphere under Thawing Permafrost Conditions in the Arctic

    SciTech Connect

    Zhuang, Qianlai; Schlosser, Courtney; Melillo, Jerry; Walter, Katey

    2015-09-15

    Our overall goal is to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically-forced climate warming, and the conditions under which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes to the landscape of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, across the Arctic. Through a suite of numerical experiments that encapsulate the fundamental processes governing methane emissions and carbon exchanges – as well as their coupling to the global climate system - we intend to test the following hypothesis in the proposed research: There exists a climate warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and stimulates large increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and poorly-drained wetland areas upon thawing permafrost along with microbial metabolic responses to higher temperatures) and increases in carbon dioxide emissions from well-drained areas. Besides changes in biogeochemistry, this threshold will also influence global energy dynamics through effects on surface albedo, evapotranspiration and water vapor. These changes would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands and higher plant photosynthesis) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.

  9. Hydrological response to changing climate conditions: Spatial streamflow variability in the boreal region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teutschbein, Claudia; Grabs, Thomas; Karlsen, Reinert H.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Bishop, Kevin

    2016-04-01

    It has long been recognized that streamflow-generating processes are not only dependent on climatic conditions, but also affected by physical catchment properties such as topography, geology, soils and land cover. We hypothesize that these landscape characteristics do not only lead to highly variable hydrologic behavior of rather similar catchments under the same stationary climate conditions (Karlsen et al., 2014), but that they also play a fundamental role for the sensitivity of a catchment to a changing climate (Teutschbein et al., 2015). A multi-model ensemble based on 15 regional climate models was combined with a multi-catchment approach to explore the hydrologic sensitivity of 14 partially nested and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden to changing climate conditions and the importance of small-scale spatial variability. Current (1981-2010) and future (2061-2090) streamflow was simulated with the HBV model. As expected, projected increases in temperature and precipitation resulted in increased total available streamflow, with lower spring and summer flows, but substantially higher winter streamflow. Furthermore, significant changes in flow durations with lower chances of both high and low flows can be expected in boreal Sweden in the future. This overall trend in projected streamflow pattern changes was comparable among the analyzed catchments while the magnitude of change differed considerably. This suggests that catchments belonging to the same region can show distinctly different degrees of hydrological responses to the same external climate change signal. We reason that differences in spatially distributed physical catchment properties at smaller scales are not only of great importance for current streamflow behavior, but also play a major role as first-order control for the sensitivity of catchments to changing climate conditions. References Karlsen, R.H., T. Grabs, K. Bishop, H. Laudon, and J. Seibert (2014). Landscape controls on

  10. Modes of climate variability under different background conditions: concepts, data, modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lohmann, G.

    2011-12-01

    Through its nonlinear dynamics and involvement in past abrupt climate shifts the thermohaline circulation represents a key element for the understanding of rapid climate changes. By applying various statistical techniques on surface temperature data, several variability modes on decadal to millenial timescales are identified. The distinction between the modes provides a frame for interpreting past abrupt climate changes. Abrupt shifts associated to the ocean circulation are detected around 1970 and the last millenium, i.e. the medieval warm period. Such oscillations are analyzed for longer time scales covering the last glacial-interglacial cycle. During the Holocene such events seem to be Poisson distributed indicating for an internal mode. Statistical-conceptual and dynamical model concepts are proposed and tested for millenial to orbital time scales, showing the dominant role of the ocean circulation. New GCM model results indicate a strong sensitivity of long-term variability on background conditions. A transition from full glacial (with a strongly stratified ocean) to interglacial conditions is attempted. Finally, climate sensitivity on glacial-interglacial and shorter time scales will be evaluated using SST Alkenone data and GCM simulations. It is shown that the models underestimate the climate sensitivity as compared to the data by a factor of 3. It is argued that the models possibly underestimate the response to obliquity forcing.

  11. Impact of climatic conditions on the design of a water treatment plant

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arregoitia, C.; Mesa, M. P.

    2012-04-01

    The abundance or scarcity of resources causes enormous problems for populations and societies. They mark the direction of the development that a society will take. Water imbalances, may distort optimal environmental and socioeconomic conditions of the food production. Water scarcity may limit food production and supply, putting pressure on food prices and increasing countries' dependence on food imports. Rising demand for food caused by growing populations and shifting diets, production shortfall in some countries, increased costs for key agricultural inputs and meat supply (driven in turn by energy costs), bioenergy-related incentives in some countries and possible financial speculation have all contributed to the steep rises in food prices. According to United Nations Over the past century world water withdrawals increased almost twice as fast as population growth and an increasing number of regions are chronically water short. Climate change has been defined as a change in the statistical properties of the climate system when considered over long periods of time, regardless of cause. Different factors can shape the climate forces or mechanisms and impact the food production system such as the cattle production field. This paper considers the step by step design and implementation of a water treatment plant of a community cattle farm located in Jadacaquiva under changing climatic conditions. The byproducts of the cattle, as well as the community can also have an impact depending on the decisions taken for the plant. Keywords: water, climate change, treatment plant, food scarcity

  12. Screening variability and change of soil moisture under wide-ranging climate conditions: Snow dynamics effects.

    PubMed

    Verrot, Lucile; Destouni, Georgia

    2015-01-01

    Soil moisture influences and is influenced by water, climate, and ecosystem conditions, affecting associated ecosystem services in the landscape. This paper couples snow storage-melting dynamics with an analytical modeling approach to screening basin-scale, long-term soil moisture variability and change in a changing climate. This coupling enables assessment of both spatial differences and temporal changes across a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. Model application is exemplified for two major Swedish hydrological basins, Norrström and Piteälven. These are located along a steep temperature gradient and have experienced different hydro-climatic changes over the time period of study, 1950-2009. Spatially, average intra-annual variability of soil moisture differs considerably between the basins due to their temperature-related differences in snow dynamics. With regard to temporal change, the long-term average state and intra-annual variability of soil moisture have not changed much, while inter-annual variability has changed considerably in response to hydro-climatic changes experienced so far in each basin.

  13. Effects of climate on the productivity of desert truffles beneath hyper-arid conditions.

    PubMed

    Bradai, Lyès; Bissati, Samia; Chenchouni, Haroun; Amrani, Khaled

    2015-07-01

    Desert truffles are edible hypogenous fungi that are very well adapted to conditions of aridity in arid and semi-arid regions. This study aims to highlight the influence of climatic factors on the productivity of desert truffles under hyper-arid climatic conditions of the Sahara Desert in Algeria, with assumptions that the more varying climatic factors, mainly rainfall, are more crucial for the development and production of desert truffles. At seven separate sites, desert truffles were collected by systematic sampling between 2006 and 2012. The effects of climate parameters of each site on the productivities (g/ha/year) of desert truffle species were tested using generalized linear models (GLMs). The annual mean of the total production recorded for all three harvested species (Terfezia arenaria, Terfezia claveryi, and Tirmania nivea) was 785.43 ± 743.39 g/ha. Tirmania nivea was commonly present over the sampled sites with an occurrence of 70 ± 10.1%. GLMs revealed that total and specific productivities were closely positively related to autumnal precipitations occurring during October-December, which is the critical pre-breeding period for both desert truffles and host plant species. The other climatic parameters have statistically no effect on the annual variation of desert truffle productivity.

  14. Humpback whale diets respond to variance in ocean climate and ecosystem conditions in the California Current.

    PubMed

    Fleming, Alyson H; Clark, Casey T; Calambokidis, John; Barlow, Jay

    2016-03-01

    Large, migratory predators are often cited as sentinel species for ecosystem processes and climate-related changes, but their utility as indicators is dependent upon an understanding of their response to environmental variability. Documentation of the links between climate variability, ecosystem change and predator dynamics is absent for most top predators. Identifying species that may be useful indicators and elucidating these mechanistic links provides insight into current ecological dynamics and may inform predictions of future ecosystem responses to climatic change. We examine humpback whale response to environmental variability through stable isotope analysis of diet over a dynamic 20-year period (1993-2012) in the California Current System (CCS). Humpback whale diets captured two major shifts in oceanographic and ecological conditions in the CCS. Isotopic signatures reflect a diet dominated by krill during periods characterized by positive phases of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), cool sea surface temperature (SST), strong upwelling and high krill biomass. In contrast, humpback whale diets are dominated by schooling fish when the NPGO is negative, SST is warmer, seasonal upwelling is delayed and anchovy and sardine populations display increased biomass and range expansion. These findings demonstrate that humpback whales trophically respond to ecosystem shifts, and as a result, their foraging behavior is a synoptic indicator of oceanographic and ecological conditions across the CCS. Multi-decadal examination of these sentinel species thus provides insight into biological consequences of interannual climate fluctuations, fundamental to advancing ecosystem predictions related to global climate change. PMID:26599719

  15. Plant nutrients do not covary with soil nutrients under changing climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, Wentao; Elser, James J.; Lü, Xiao-Tao; Wang, Zhengwen; Bai, Edith; Yan, Caifeng; Wang, Chao; Li, Mai-He; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Han, Xingguo; Xu, Zhuwen; Li, Hui; Wu, Yunna; Jiang, Yong

    2015-08-01

    Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) play vital roles in plant growth and development. Yet how climate regimes and soil fertility influence plant N and P stoichiometry is not well understood, especially in the belowground plant parts. Here we investigated plant aboveground and belowground N and P concentrations ([N] and [P]) and their stoichiometry in three dominant genera along a 2200 km long climatic gradient in northern China. Results showed that temperature explained more variation of [N] and [P] in C4 plants, whereas precipitation exerted a stronger influence on [N] and [P] in C3 plants. Both plant aboveground and belowground [N] and [P] increased with decreasing precipitation, and increasing temperatures yet were negatively correlated with soil [N] and [P]. Plant N:P ratios were unrelated with all climate and soil variables. Plant aboveground and belowground [N] followed an allometric scaling relationship, but the allocation of [P] was isometric. These results imply that internal processes stabilize plant N:P ratios and hence tissue N:P ratios may not be an effective parameter for predicting plant nutrient limitation. Our results also imply that past positive relationships between plant and nutrient stocks may be challenged under changing climatic conditions. While any modeling would need to be able to replicate currently observed relationships, it is conceivable that some relationships, such as those between temperature or rainfall and carbon:nutrient ratios, should be different under changing climatic conditions.

  16. The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

    2016-04-01

    Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the

  17. Climatic conditions cause complex patterns of covariation between demographic traits in a long-lived raptor.

    PubMed

    Herfindal, Ivar; van de Pol, Martijn; Nielsen, Jan T; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Møller, Anders P

    2015-05-01

    Environmental variation can induce life-history changes that can last over a large part of the lifetime of an organism. If multiple demographic traits are affected, expected changes in climate may influence environmental covariances among traits in a complex manner. Thus, examining the consequences of environmental fluctuations requires that individual information at multiple life stages is available, which is particularly challenging in long-lived species. Here, we analyse how variation in climatic conditions occurring in the year of hatching of female goshawks Accipiter gentilis (L.) affects age-specific variation in demographic traits and lifetime reproductive success (LRS). LRS decreased with increasing temperature in April in the year of hatching, due to lower breeding frequency and shorter reproductive life span. In contrast, the probability for a female to successfully breed was higher in years with a warm April, but lower LRS of the offspring in these years generated a negative covariance among fecundity rates among generations. The mechanism by which climatic conditions generated cohort effects was likely through influencing the quality of the breeding segment of the population in a given year, as the proportion of pigeons in the diet during the breeding period was positively related to annual and LRS, and the diet of adult females that hatched in warm years contained fewer pigeons. Climatic conditions experienced during different stages of individual life histories caused complex patterns of environmental covariance among demographic traits even across generations. Such environmental covariances may either buffer or amplify impacts of climate change on population growth, emphasizing the importance of considering demographic changes during the complete life history of individuals when predicting the effect of climatic change on population dynamics of long-lived species.

  18. Thermal performance of a Concrete Cool Roof under different climatic conditions of Mexico

    SciTech Connect

    Hernández-Pérez, I.; Álvarez, G.; Gilbert, H.; Xamán, J.; Chávez, Y.; Shah, B.

    2014-11-27

    A cool roof is an ordinary roof with a reflective coating on the exterior surface which has a high solar reflectance and high thermal emittance. These properties let the roof keep a lower temperature than a standard roof under the same conditions. In this work, the thermal performance of a concrete roof with and without insulation and with two colors has been analyzed using the finite volume method. The boundary conditions of the external roof surface were taken from hourly averaged climatic data of four cities. For the internal surface, it is considered that the building is air-conditioned and the inside air has a constant temperature. The interior surface temperature and the heat flux rates into the roofs were obtained for two consecutive days in order to assess the benefits of a cool roofs in different climates.

  19. Projections of climate conditions that increase coral disease susceptibility and pathogen abundance and virulence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maynard, Jeffrey; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Eakin, C. Mark; Puotinen, Marjetta; Garren, Melissa; Williams, Gareth; Heron, Scott F.; Lamb, Joleah; Weil, Ernesto; Willis, Bette; Harvell, C. Drew

    2015-07-01

    Rising sea temperatures are likely to increase the frequency of disease outbreaks affecting reef-building corals through impacts on coral hosts and pathogens. We present and compare climate model projections of temperature conditions that will increase coral susceptibility to disease, pathogen abundance and pathogen virulence. Both moderate (RCP 4.5) and fossil fuel aggressive (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios are examined. We also compare projections for the onset of disease-conducive conditions and severe annual coral bleaching, and produce a disease risk summary that combines climate stress with stress caused by local human activities. There is great spatial variation in the projections, both among and within the major ocean basins, in conditions favouring disease development. Our results indicate that disease is as likely to cause coral mortality as bleaching in the coming decades. These projections identify priority locations to reduce stress caused by local human activities and test management interventions to reduce disease impacts.

  20. Thermal performance of a Concrete Cool Roof under different climatic conditions of Mexico

    DOE PAGES

    Hernández-Pérez, I.; Álvarez, G.; Gilbert, H.; Xamán, J.; Chávez, Y.; Shah, B.

    2014-11-27

    A cool roof is an ordinary roof with a reflective coating on the exterior surface which has a high solar reflectance and high thermal emittance. These properties let the roof keep a lower temperature than a standard roof under the same conditions. In this work, the thermal performance of a concrete roof with and without insulation and with two colors has been analyzed using the finite volume method. The boundary conditions of the external roof surface were taken from hourly averaged climatic data of four cities. For the internal surface, it is considered that the building is air-conditioned and themore » inside air has a constant temperature. The interior surface temperature and the heat flux rates into the roofs were obtained for two consecutive days in order to assess the benefits of a cool roofs in different climates.« less

  1. Climate phase drives canopy condition in a large semi-arid floodplain forest.

    PubMed

    Wen, Li; Saintilan, Neil

    2015-08-15

    To maintain and restore the ecological integrity of floodplains, allocating water for environmental benefits (i.e. environmental water) is widely practised globally. To efficiently manage the always limited environmental water, there is pressing need to advance our understanding of the ecological response to long-term climate cycles as evidence grows of intensification of extreme climatic events such as severe drought and heat waves. In this study, we assessed the alleviating effects of artificial flooding on drought impact using the canopy condition of the iconic river red gum forests in Australia's Murray Darling Basin (MDB). To achieve this, we jointly analysed spatial-temporal patterns of NDVI response and drought conditions for the period of 2000-2013, during which the MDB experienced an extreme dry-wet cycle. Our results indicated that while NDVI-derived canopy condition was better at the sites receiving environmental water during the dry phases, both watered and unwatered sites displayed great similarity in seasonality and trends. Furthermore, we did not find any significant difference in NDVI response of the canopy between the sites to suggest significant differences in ecosystem stability and resilience, with watered and unwatered sites showing similar responses to the extreme wet conditions as the drought broke. The highly significant relationship between long-term drought index and NDVI anomaly suggest that climate phase is the main forcing driving canopy condition in semi-arid floodplain forests. PMID:26027753

  2. Climate phase drives canopy condition in a large semi-arid floodplain forest.

    PubMed

    Wen, Li; Saintilan, Neil

    2015-08-15

    To maintain and restore the ecological integrity of floodplains, allocating water for environmental benefits (i.e. environmental water) is widely practised globally. To efficiently manage the always limited environmental water, there is pressing need to advance our understanding of the ecological response to long-term climate cycles as evidence grows of intensification of extreme climatic events such as severe drought and heat waves. In this study, we assessed the alleviating effects of artificial flooding on drought impact using the canopy condition of the iconic river red gum forests in Australia's Murray Darling Basin (MDB). To achieve this, we jointly analysed spatial-temporal patterns of NDVI response and drought conditions for the period of 2000-2013, during which the MDB experienced an extreme dry-wet cycle. Our results indicated that while NDVI-derived canopy condition was better at the sites receiving environmental water during the dry phases, both watered and unwatered sites displayed great similarity in seasonality and trends. Furthermore, we did not find any significant difference in NDVI response of the canopy between the sites to suggest significant differences in ecosystem stability and resilience, with watered and unwatered sites showing similar responses to the extreme wet conditions as the drought broke. The highly significant relationship between long-term drought index and NDVI anomaly suggest that climate phase is the main forcing driving canopy condition in semi-arid floodplain forests.

  3. Effects of baseline conditions on the simulated hydrologic response to projected climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koczot, Kathryn M.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.

    2011-01-01

    Changes in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitation data selected to represent twentieth-century climate. The hydrologic effects of the climate projections are evaluated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), which is a watershed hydrology simulation model. The Almanor Catchment in the North Fork of the Feather River basin, California, is used as a case study. Differences and similarities between PRMS simulations of hydrologic components (i.e., snowpack formation and melt, evapotranspiration, and streamflow) are examined, and results indicate that the selection of a specific time period used for baseline conditions has a substantial effect on some, but not all, hydrologic variables. This effect seems to be amplified in hydrologic variables, which accumulate over time, such as soil-moisture content. Results also indicate that uncertainty related to the selection of baseline conditions should be evaluated using a range of different baseline conditions. This is particularly important for studies in basins with highly variable climate, such as the Almanor Catchment.

  4. Impacts of Autonomous Adaptations on the Hydrological Drought Under Climate Change Condition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oki, T.; Satoh, Y.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; KIM, H.; Yoshimura, K.

    2014-12-01

    Because of expected effects of climate changes on quantity and spatial distribution of available water resources, assessment of the changes in the balance between the demand and supply of water resources is critical for some regions. Historically, water deficiencies were overcome by planned water management such as dam regulation and irrigation. But only few studies have investigated the effect of anthropogenic factors on the risk of imbalance of water demand and supply under climate change conditions. Therefore, estimation of the potential deficiency in existing infrastructures under water-environment change is needed to support our society to adapt against future climate changes. This study aims to estimate the impacts of climate changes on the risk of water scarcity projected based on CMIP5 RCP scenarios and the efficiency of autonomous adaptation by anthropogenic water management, such as reservoir operation and irrigation using ground water. First, tendencies of the changes in water scarcity under climate change are estimated by an improved land surface model, which integrates natural water cycles and human activities. Second, the efficiencies of human-developed infrastructure are analyzed by comparing the naturalized and fully anthropogenic offline simulations. It was found that number of hydrological drought days will be increased and decreased in approximately 70 % and 24 % of global land, respectively, considering anthropogenic water management, however, they are approximately 82 % and 16 %, respectively, under naturalized condition without anthropogenic water management. The differences indicate how autonomous adaptation through anthropogenic water management can reduce the impacts of climate change. Also, adequate enhancement of infrastructure is necessary against expected water scarcity under climate change because such positive and negative effects of artificial water regulation show comparable impact on water scarcity risk to that of climate change in

  5. Attribution of soil moisture dynamics - Initial conditions vs. atmospheric forcing and the role of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orth, Rene; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2014-05-01

    The world's climate has started to change more quickly in recent decades and a stronger and faster shift is expected in the future. Even if the public perception is mostly limited to a widespread warming, climate change is a complex phenomenon impacting numerous variables of the climate system in different ways, also depending on time and location. Furthermore, extreme events may change more drastically than the mean climate. There is growing evidence that climate change is mostly man-made. However, it is still a matter of debate to which extent changes of the mean climate but also of particular (extreme) events are due to human impact. These questions are addressed by the growing science of climate attribution. Pointing out the anthropogenic influence on extreme events such as the 2010 Russian heatwave or the 2002 floods in Central Europe may help to support adaptation to climate change. This study investigates soil moisture in Europe in the context of climate change, because of its role as a key variable of the land-climate system and its practical importance for instance to agriculture. To derive soil moisture dynamics from 1984-2007 we use E-OBS forcing data together with SRB radiation data and employ an observation-based approach where soil moisture is computed from a water balance equation in which runoff (normalized with precipitation) and ET (normalized with net radiation) are simple functions of soil moisture. The constant runoff function is prescribed for the whole continent, and the ET function is calibrated using temperature data. After performing a validation of the inferred soil moisture data we use it in order to analyze changes in the likelihood of droughts. Our results show increased drought risk especially in north-eastern Europe and the Mediterranean, whereby the probability of extreme droughts increases stronger as for mild dryness episodes. To assess the potential for drought forecasting we furthermore study the importance of the initial

  6. Stability Behaviour of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Under Different Climate Conditions: The Thermal Component

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knorr, G.; Eichinger, R.; Lohmann, G.; Prange, M.; Barker, S.

    2010-05-01

    During the Last Glacial Maximum the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (THC) was characterized by a southward shift of the North Atlantic deep water (NADW) formation sites and a relatively shallow NADW- overturning cell, compared to the present mode of operation. Furthermore, abrupt climate events during the last glacial are associated with rapid changes in the THC and accompanying changes of the inter-hemispheric northward oceanic heat transport. Using an interhemispheric box model of the Atlantic THC, coupled to a moist energy balance model of the atmosphere we present a new approach, which is based on the assumption that a completely sea ice covered North Atlantic would inhibit the generation of deep water. Therefore we introduce a dependence of the overturning strength from the sea ice extent in the North Atlantic. This approach can be viewed as a loss of efficiency of the inter-hemispheric density gradient in driving the overturning with cooler climate conditions. The transition from the present day climate to a colder climate forces the Atlantic THC to collapse in an intermediate climate state. This change in the stability behaviour is a consequence of the model response to gradual changes in the outgoing infra-red radiation at the top of the atmosphere. At cooler climate states the increasing atmosphere-ocean temperature contrast and associated ocean heat loss dominates the insulating effect of sea ice on North Atlantic temperature and promotes a sea ice growth. This effect is amplified by a weaker overturning circulation and decreased northward oceanic heat transport, which leads to a positive feedback loop and the existence of multiple equilibria in an intermediate climate state. Based on the reduction of the system to key variables governing the stability, we will also discuss the internal and structural stability of the system with the aid of numerical and analytical solutions to gain a deeper understanding of the underlying dynamics. A comparison with

  7. Biological and physical factors controlling aggregate stability under different climatic conditions in Southern Spain.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ángel Gabarrón-Galeote, Miguel; Damián Ruiz-Sinoga, Jose; Francisco Martinez-Murillo, Juan; Lavee, Hanoch

    2013-04-01

    Soil aggregation is a key factor determining the soil structure. The presence of stable aggregates is essential to maintain a good soil structure, that in turn plays an important role in sustaining agricultural productivity and preserving environmental quality. A wide range of physical and biological soil components are involved in the aggregate formation and stabilization, namely clay mineral content; the quantity and quality of organic matter, that can be derived from plants, fungal hyphae, microorganism and soil animals; and the soil water content. Climatic conditions, through their effect on soil water content, vegetation cover and organic matter content, are supposed to affect soil aggregation. Thus the main objective of this research is to analyse the effect of organic matter, clay content and soil water content on aggregate stability along a climatic transect in Southern Spain. This study was conducted in four catchments along a pluviometric gradient in the South of Spain (rainfall depth decreases from west to east from more than 1000 mm year-1 to less than 300 mm year-1) and was based on a methodology approximating the climatic gradient in Mediterranean conditions. The selected sites shared similar conditions of geology, topography and soil use, which allowed making comparisons among them and relating the differences to the pluviometric conditions. In February 2007, 250 disturbed and undisturbed samples from the first 5cm of the soil were collected along the transect. We measured the aggregate stability, organic matter, clay content and bulk density of every sample. In the field we measured rainfall, air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, soil water content, vegetation cover and presence of litter. Our results suggest that aggregate stability is a property determined by a great number of highly variable factors, which can make extremely difficult to predict its behavior taking in

  8. Why were Past North Atlantic Warming Conditions Associated with Drier Climate in the Western United States?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong, C. I.; Potter, G. L.; Montanez, I. P.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Behling, P.; Oster, J. L.

    2014-12-01

    Investigating climate dynamics governing rainfall over the western US during past warmings and coolings of the last glacial and deglaciation is pertinent to understanding how precipitation patterns might change with future global warming, especially as the processes driving the global hydrological reorganization affecting this drought-prone region during these rapid temperature changes remain unresolved. We present model climates of the Bølling warm event (14,500 years ago) and Younger Dryas cool event (12,200 years ago) that i) uniquely enable the assessment of dueling hypothesis about the atmospheric teleconnections responsible for abrupt temperature shifts in the North Atlantic region to variations in moisture conditions across the western US, and ii) show that existing hypotheses about these teleconnections are unsupported. Modeling results show no evidence for a north-south shift of the Pacific winter storm track, and we argue that a tropical moisture source with evolving trajectory cannot explain alternation between wet/dry conditions, which have been reconstructed from the proxy record. Alternatively, model results support a new hypothesis that variations in the intensity of the winter storm track, corresponding to its expansion/contraction, can account for regional moisture differences between warm and cool intervals of the last deglaciation. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the mechanism forcing the teleconnection between the North Atlantic and western US is the same across different boundary conditions. In our simulation, during the last deglaciation, and in simulations of future warming, perturbation of the Rossby wave structure reconfigures the atmospheric state. This reconfiguration affects the Aleutian Low and high-pressure ridge over and off of the northern North American coastline driving variability in the storm track. Similarity between the processes governing the climate response during these distinct time intervals illustrates the robust nature

  9. How can we best use climate information and hydrologic initial conditions to improve seasonal streamflow forecasts?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mendoza, P. A.; Wood, A. W.; Rothwell, E.; Clark, M. P.; Brekke, L. D.; Arnold, J. R.

    2015-12-01

    Over the last decades, a number of forecasting centers around the world have offered seasonal streamflow predictions, using methodologies that span a wide range of data requirements and complexity. In the western United States, two primary approaches have been adopted for operational purposes: (i) development of regression equations between future streamflow and in situ observations (e.g. rainfall, snow water equivalent), and (ii) ensemble hydrologic model simulations that combine initial watershed moisture states with historically observed weather sequences for the forecast period (e.g., Ensemble Streamflow Prediction, ESP). Nevertheless, none of these methodologies makes use of analyzed or forecast climate information, which might increase the skill of seasonal predictions. Further, there is a need to better understand the marginal benefits of using more complex methods (from statistical to dynamical) and different types of information. In this work, we provide a systematic intercomparison of various seasonal streamflow forecasting techniques, including: (1) a dynamical approach based on conceptual hydrologic modeling and ESP, (2) statistical regression using climate information and/or initial hydrologic conditions, (3) an ESP trace weighting scheme based on analog climatic conditions, and (4) combination of dynamical and statistical forecasts (i.e. hybrid approach). Climate information is taken from the NCEP CFSv2 reanalysis and reforecast datasets. These methods are tested for predicting spring (e.g., May-September) runoff volumes at case study basins located in the US Pacific Northwest, and results obtained for several initialization times are evaluated in terms of accuracy, probabilistic skill and statistical consistency. Preliminary results show that for earlier initialization times (October 1 to December 1), statistical and hybrid techniques that make use of climate information outperform ESP in terms of correlation and probabilistic skill. Although ESP at

  10. Evaluating the effects of boundary condition update frequency on CCLMs climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pankatz, Klaus; Kerkweg, Astrid

    2014-05-01

    In regional climate modelling it is common to update the boundary conditions of the model every six hours. This is mainly due to the fact, that reference data sets like ERA are only available every six hours. Additionally, for offline coupling procedures it would be to costly to store boundary data in higher temporal resolution for climate simulations. However, theoretically, the coupling frequency can be as high as the timestep of the driving model. It is however unclear if a more frequent update of the boundary conditions has a significant effect on the climate in the domain of the regional model. This study uses COSMO/MESSy (Kerkweg and Jöckel, 2012) to couple CCLM offline to the GCM ECHAM5. For three update frequencies, namely six hours, one hour and six minutes a 30 year time slice experiment has been performed. The climate is evaluated by comparing means, standard deviations and PDFs of diagnostic and prognostic variables in the whole domain and in subdomains as defined in PRUDENCE. The study shows only small deviations, some stastically significant though, of the means (2m temperature, sea level pressure, precipitaion). The variable stastistics do not defer much. Differences are slightly more pronounced when comparing the PRUDENCE regions. The precipitation bias at the domain borders, especially at the inflow boundary, is more pronounced in higher coupling frequencies. The deviations reach far into the model domain.

  11. Hydrological response to changing climate conditions: Spatial streamflow variability in the boreal region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teutschbein, C.; Grabs, T.; Karlsen, R. H.; Laudon, H.; Bishop, K.

    2015-12-01

    In this paper we combined a multimodel ensemble based on 15 regional climate models with a multicatchment approach to explore the hydrologic sensitivity of 14 neighboring and rather similar catchments to changing climate conditions. Current (1982-2010) and future (2062-2090) streamflow was simulated with the HBV model. A diagnostic approach was used, which considered major behavioral catchment functions by using hydrologically relevant signatures related to overall water balance, flow duration curves and hydrograph attributes. Projected increases in temperature and precipitation resulted in increased total available streamflow, with lower spring and summer flows, but substantially higher winter streamflow. Furthermore, significant changes in flow durations with lower chances of both high and low flows can be expected in boreal Sweden in the future. This overall trend in projected streamflow pattern changes was comparable among the analyzed catchments but the magnitude of change differed considerably. This suggests that catchments belonging to the same region can show distinctly different degrees of hydrological responses to the same external climate change signal. We reason that differences in spatially distributed physical catchment properties within catchments are not only of great importance for current streamflow behavior, but also play a major role in the sensitivity of catchments to changing climate conditions.

  12. Regression tree modeling of forest NPP using site conditions and climate variables across eastern USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwon, Y.

    2013-12-01

    As evidence of global warming continue to increase, being able to predict forest response to climate changes, such as expected rise of temperature and precipitation, will be vital for maintaining the sustainability and productivity of forests. To map forest species redistribution by climate change scenario has been successful, however, most species redistribution maps lack mechanistic understanding to explain why trees grow under the novel conditions of chaining climate. Distributional map is only capable of predicting under the equilibrium assumption that the communities would exist following a prolonged period under the new climate. In this context, forest NPP as a surrogate for growth rate, the most important facet that determines stand dynamics, can lead to valid prediction on the transition stage to new vegetation-climate equilibrium as it represents changes in structure of forest reflecting site conditions and climate factors. The objective of this study is to develop forest growth map using regression tree analysis by extracting large-scale non-linear structures from both field-based FIA and remotely sensed MODIS data set. The major issue addressed in this approach is non-linear spatial patterns of forest attributes. Forest inventory data showed complex spatial patterns that reflect environmental states and processes that originate at different spatial scales. At broad scales, non-linear spatial trends in forest attributes and mixture of continuous and discrete types of environmental variables make traditional statistical (multivariate regression) and geostatistical (kriging) models inefficient. It calls into question some traditional underlying assumptions of spatial trends that uncritically accepted in forest data. To solve the controversy surrounding the suitability of forest data, regression tree analysis are performed using Software See5 and Cubist. Four publicly available data sets were obtained: First, field-based Forest Inventory and Analysis (USDA

  13. Multidecadal changes in moisture condition during climatic growing period of crops in Northeast China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Junfang; Guo, Jianping

    Investigating the spatiotemporal dynamics of agricultural water status during crop growth season can provide scientific evidences for more efficient use of water resources and sustainable development of agricultural production under climate change. In this study, the following were used to evaluate the multidecadal changes in moisture condition during climatic growth period of crops in Northeast China from 1961 to 2010: (1) the daily climate variables gathered from 101 meteorological stations in Northeast China for 1961-2010; (2) FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) Penman-Monteith equation; (3) 80% guaranteed probability for agro-climatic indicators; and (4) the daily average temperature stably passing 0 °C, which is the threshold temperature of climatic growth period for crops. Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) and relative moisture index were further calculated. The results showed that Northeast China's climate in the main agricultural areas over the past 50 years was warmer and drier in general, with a growing range and intensity of drought. From 1961 to 2010, when the daily average temperature stably passed 0 °C, the average annual total precipitation (P) and ET0 with 80% guaranteed probability in Northeast China both emerged as decreasing trends with averages of 555.0 mm and 993.7 mm, respectively. However, the decline in P was greater than that of annual total ET0. As a result, the annual relative moisture indices sharply decreased with an average of -0.44, mostly fluctuating from -0.59 to -0.25. As far as spatial distributions were concerned, the inter-regional reductions in P and relative moisture index over the past 50 years were conspicuous, especially in some agricultural areas of central Heilongjiang Province, northeastern Jilin Province and northeastern Liaoning Province. On the contrary, ET0 obviously increased in some agricultural areas of central and northwestern Heilongjiang Province (eg. Qiqiha'er, Shuangyashan, Hegang, Suihua, etc

  14. Comparison of winter wheat yield sensitivity to climate variables under irrigated and rain-fed conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Dengpan; Shen, Yanjun; Zhang, He; Moiwo, Juana P.; Qi, Yongqing; Wang, Rende; Pei, Hongwei; Zhang, Yucui; Shen, Huitao

    2016-09-01

    Crop simulation models provide alternative, less time-consuming, and cost-effective means of determining the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change. In this study, two dynamic mechanistic models, CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis) and APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator), were used to simulate the yield of wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) under well irrigated (CFG) and rain-fed (YY) conditions in relation to different climate variables in the North China Plain (NCP). The study tested winter wheat yield sensitivity to different levels of temperature, radiation, precipitation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration under CFG and YY conditions at Luancheng Agro-ecosystem Experimental Stations in the NCP. The results from the CERES and APSIM wheat crop models were largely consistent and suggested that changes in climate variables influenced wheat grain yield in the NCP. There was also significant variation in the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to climate variables under different water (CFG and YY) conditions. While a temperature increase of 2°C was the threshold beyond which temperature negatively influenced wheat yield under CFG, a temperature rise exceeding 1°C decreased winter wheat grain yield under YY. A decrease in solar radiation decreased wheat grain yield under both CFG and YY conditions. Although the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to precipitation was small under the CFG, yield decreased significantly with decreasing precipitation under the rainfed YY treatment. The results also suggest that wheat yield under CFG linearly increased by ≈3.5% per 60 ppm (parts per million) increase in CO2 concentration from 380 to 560 ppm, and yield under YY increased linearly by ≈7.0% for the same increase in CO2 concentration.

  15. Lactobacillus acidophilus La5 and Bifidobacterium lactis Bb12 cell surface hydrophobicity and survival of the cells under adverse environmental conditions.

    PubMed

    Shakirova, Laisana; Grube, Mara; Gavare, Marita; Auzina, Lilija; Zikmanis, Peteris

    2013-01-01

    Changes in the cell surface hydrophobicity (CSH) of probiotic bacteria Lactobacillus acidophilus La5 and Bifidobacterium lactis Bb12 and the survival of these cells were examined in response to varied cultivation conditions and adverse environmental conditions. An inverse linear relationship (P < 0.01) was detected between the CSH of intact L. acidophilus La5 and B. lactis Bb12 and survival of cells subjected to subsequent freezing/thawing, long-term storage or exposure to mineral and bile acids. The observed relationships were supported by significant correlations between the CSH and changes in composition of the cell envelopes (proteins, lipids and carbohydrates) of L. acidophilus La5 and B. lactis Bb12 examined using FT-IR spectroscopy and conventional biochemical analysis methods. The results also suggest that the estimates of hydrophobicity, being a generalized characteristic of cell surfaces, are important parameters to predict the ability of intact probiotic bacteria to endure extreme environments and therefore should be monitored during cultivation. A defined balance of cell components, which can be characterized by the reduced CSH values, apparently helps to ensure the resistance, improved viability and hence the overall probiotic properties of bacteria. PMID:23053348

  16. A conditional approach to determining the effect of anthropogenic climate change on very rare events.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wehner, Michael; Pall, Pardeep; Zarzycki, Colin; Stone, Daithi

    2016-04-01

    Probabilistic extreme event attribution is especially difficult for weather events that are caused by extremely rare large-scale meteorological patterns. Traditional modeling techniques have involved using ensembles of climate models, either fully coupled or with prescribed ocean and sea ice. Ensemble sizes for the latter case ranges from several 100 to tens of thousand. However, even if the simulations are constrained by the observed ocean state, the requisite large-scale meteorological pattern may not occur frequently enough or even at all in free running climate model simulations. We present a method to ensure that simulated events similar to the observed event are modeled with enough fidelity that robust statistics can be determined given the large scale meteorological conditions. By initializing suitably constrained short term ensemble hindcasts of both the actual weather system and a counterfactual weather system where the human interference in the climate system is removed, the human contribution to the magnitude of the event can be determined. However, the change (if any) in the probability of an event of the observed magnitude is conditional not only on the state of the ocean/sea ice system but also on the prescribed initial conditions determined by the causal large scale meteorological pattern. We will discuss the implications of this technique through two examples; the 2013 Colorado flood and the 2014 Typhoon Haiyan.

  17. Uncertainties in MM5 climate simulations: physics configuration vs. driving conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jerez, S.; Gomez-Navarro, J. J.; Jimenez-Guerrero, P.; Lorente-Plazas, R.; Montavez, J. P.

    2010-12-01

    High resolution climate simulations are largely demanded for several applications, e.g. evaluating the climate change impacts at regional scales and the potential of the renewable energy resources. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) increase the resolution of coarser databases taking into account the local features and their influence in the physical processes ocurring at finer scales. Nevertheless, some of these processes remain still masked by the spatial resolutions considered in RCMs and must be solved through parameterizations. The mesoescale model MM5 includes several options for each parameterized process. The selection of the aforementioned options could lead to important differences. This work assesses them by analyzing two multi-physics ensembles of climate simulations over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) covering the period 1970-1999. Each ensemble consists of eight members resulting from combining two Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) schemes, two cumulus (CML) parameterizations, and two microphysics (MIC) modeling options. The simulations have been performed twice, using both ERA40 and ECHAM5-Run1 as driving conditions. Thus, uncertainties due to the physics configuration of MM5 when reproducing the climate of the IP have been compared with uncertainties coming from the boundary conditions selected. The analysis has been carried out focusing on mean values of temperature and precipitation. Both variables are underestimated when the ECHAM5-driven ensemble mean is compared to the ERA40-driven ensemble mean. In the case of temperature, the largest underestimation is found in summer in the inner southeastern IP, reaching values over 3 K as the cold bias. The largest ensemble spread falls in the same area and season, reaches values up to 3 K, and is mainly determined by the choice of the PBL scheme. The influence of the CML and MIC schemes is much lower throughout the year. Regarding precipitation, the largest underestimation is found in winter in the north-western IP

  18. Estimating the influence of vegetation on net infiltration under future climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stothoff, S. A.

    2005-12-01

    Performance assessments of the proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, are sensitive to the net infiltration passing the root zone above the repository, an area of roughly 5 km2. The area of interest has a semiarid climate, ten washes in rugged topography, and shallow soils overlying fractured bedrock composed of silicic volcanic tuff. Mean annual net infiltration is uncertain but constrained under current climatic conditions, based on modeling and observations. Performance assessments that consider periods of one or more glacial cycles must address net infiltration under wetter and cooler future climatic conditions. Potential evapotranspiration under current climatic conditions is sufficiently large relative to mean annual precipitation that numerical simulators are relatively insensitive to how evapotranspiration is implemented in the model. Water passes from soil into the bedrock only over short periods while the soil is wet following large storms. Under wetter and cooler climatic conditions, the representation of evapotranspiration may be more important, particularly the component handling plant uptake. Plant uptake models from the crop science literature assume that the plants have a predictable growth pattern over a growing season and predictable rooting patterns. These assumptions, reasonable for agricultural situations with annual crops in deep soil, may be questionable or difficult to parameterize when considering uptake from long-lived shrubs in semiarid climates with shallow soils and strong interannual variation in rainfall. An adaptive vegetation model is proposed that allows vegetation to respond to environmental influences. The adaptive model allocates roots according to uptake, which is mediated by the environment, within limits set by genetic preferences. The model allows growth in wet periods and dieback in dry periods, and allocates roots within the bedrock fractures to the depth supported by moisture availability. Estimated mean

  19. Evaluating global reanalysis datasets for provision of boundary conditions in regional climate modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moalafhi, Ditiro B.; Evans, Jason P.; Sharma, Ashish

    2016-01-01

    Regional climate modelling studies often begin by downscaling a reanalysis dataset in order to simulate the observed climate, allowing the investigation of regional climate processes and quantification of the errors associated with the regional model. To date choice of reanalysis to perform such downscaling has been made based either on convenience or on performance of the reanalyses within the regional domain for relevant variables such as near-surface air temperature and precipitation. However, the only information passed from the reanalysis to the regional model are the atmospheric temperature, moisture and winds at the location of the boundaries of the regional domain. Here we present a methodology to evaluate reanalyses derived lateral boundary conditions for an example domain over southern Africa using satellite data. This study focusses on atmospheric temperature and moisture which are easily available. Five commonly used global reanalyses (NCEP1, NCEP2, ERA-I, 20CRv2, and MERRA) are evaluated against the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder satellite temperature and relative humidity over boundaries of two domains centred on southern Africa for the years 2003-2012 inclusive. The study reveals that MERRA is the most suitable for climate mean with NCEP1 the next most suitable. For climate variability, ERA-I is the best followed by MERRA. Overall, MERRA is preferred for generating lateral boundary conditions for this domain, followed by ERA-I. While a "better" LBC specification is not the sole precursor to an improved downscaling outcome, any reduction in uncertainty associated with the specification of LBCs is a step in the right direction.

  20. Effects of atrophic rhinitis induced by Pasteurella multocida toxin on heat production and activity of pigs kept under different climatic conditions.

    PubMed

    van Diemen, P M; Henken, A M; Schrama, J W; Brandsma, H A; Verstegen, M W

    1995-06-01

    Effects of moderate, artificially induced atrophic rhinitis symptoms on level and changes in heat production and activity were determined in pigs kept under different climatic conditions. Eight groups of 30 pigs each, housed in one of two climatically controlled respiration chambers, were exposed to a 2 x 2 factorial arrangement of treatments: challenged with 0 or 13 micrograms of Pasteurella multocida toxin (Pm-T)/mL, and two climatic environments (good: 25 degrees C, or adverse: 15 degrees C with draught periods). The Pm-T challenge reduced (P < .05) day averages of total (HP) and activity-related heat production (Har). The response to Pm-T treatment was similar in both climatic environments. Differences in the heat production and activity caused by the climatic treatment declined (P < .001) with time and acclimation to the environment. Analyses of HP, Har, and activity-free heat production in 12 2-h periods showed a biphasic activity rhythm. Both treatments affected (P < .05) level of HP and Har in several of the 2-h periods, but the biphasic rhythm was not altered. Day averages of Har showed a disposition to be differently affected (P < .068) by Pm-T challenge in the climatic treatments dependent on duration of exposure. This interaction effect (P < .001) seemed to originate from the periods between 1500 and 2100. Therefore, it might be wise to distinguish between overall effects (day means) on total, activity-related, and activity-free heat production and effects within a day (e.g., 2-h means). Treatment with Pm-T seemed to suppress the general well-being of pigs, reducing pigs' activity and food intake.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:7673059

  1. Analysis of simulated future climate conditions of Central Europe using different weather pattern classifications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartholy, Judit; Pongracz, Rita; Philipp, Andreas; Beck, Christoph; Kern, Aniko

    2010-05-01

    The main goals of the research are (i) to compare weather pattern classification methods for Central Europe (COST733 domain 07 covering 43-58°N, 3-26°E) using observed and simulated present climate (1961-1990), and (ii) to analyze the climate change effects on weather patterns for the same region using different classification methods. The observed climate is represented by the ECMWF ERA40 datasets, and the simulation experiments were accomplished for future climate conditions (2071-2100) using two emission scenarios (A2 and B2) in the frame of the EU-project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). High resolution (50 km × 50 km) simulated daily values of meteorological variables (mean sea level pressure, temperature, precipitation) have been obtained from the regional climate model (RCM) outputs of the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). DMI used the HIRHAM4 RCM (developed jointly by DMI and the Max-Planck Institute in Hamburg), for which the boundary conditions were provided by the HadAM3H/HadCM3 global climate model of the UK Met Office. For the weather pattern classification we use the COST733 classification software (version 0.19-17). The 12 available classification methods (grouped into (i) optimization algorithms, (ii) leader algorithms, (iii) PCA based methods, and (iv) threshold based methods) are applied to the ERA40 daily mean sea level pressure database for 1961-1990 using 9, 18, and 27 weather pattern types. The resulting circulation pattern types from 1961-1990 classifications of the mean sea level pressure fields are applied to the classification of the 2071-2100 period for both A2 and B2 scenarios. Frequency distribution changes of circulation pattern types are analyzed in the selected domain by 2071-2100 period for both A2 and B2 scenarios relative to the 1961-1990 reference period. Furthermore, temperature anomaly and precipitation pattern changes are evaluated in

  2. Application of different weather pattern classifications to simulated future climate conditions for Central Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartholy, J.; Pongracz, R.; Philipp, A.; Beck, C.; Kern, A.

    2010-09-01

    The main goals of the research are (i) to compare weather pattern classification methods for Central Europe (COST733 domain 07 covering 43-58°N, 3-26°E) using observed and simulated present climate (1961-1990), and (ii) to analyze the climate change effects on weather patterns for the same region using different classification methods. The observed climate is represented by the ECMWF ERA40 datasets, and the simulation experiments were accomplished for future climate conditions (2071-2100) using two emission scenarios (A2 and B2) in the frame of the EU-project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). High resolution (50 km × 50 km) simulated daily values of meteorological variables (mean sea level pressure, temperature, precipitation) have been obtained from the regional climate model (RCM) outputs of the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). DMI used the HIRHAM4 RCM (developed jointly by DMI and the Max-Planck Institute in Hamburg), for which the boundary conditions were provided by the HadAM3H/HadCM3 global climate model of the UK Met Office. For the weather pattern classification we use the COST733 classification software (version 0.19-17). The 12 available classification methods (grouped into (i) optimization algorithms, (ii) leader algorithms, (iii) PCA based methods, and (iv) threshold based methods) are applied to the ERA40 daily mean sea level pressure database for 1961-1990 using 9, 18, and 27 weather pattern types. The resulting circulation pattern types from 1961-1990 classifications of the mean sea level pressure fields are applied to the classification of the 2071-2100 period for both A2 and B2 scenarios. Frequency distribution changes of circulation pattern types are analyzed in the selected domain by 2071-2100 period for both A2 and B2 scenarios relative to the 1961-1990 reference period. Furthermore, temperature anomaly and precipitation pattern changes are evaluated in

  3. Impact of regional afforestation on climatic conditions in metropolitan areas: case study of Copenhagen

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stysiak, Aleksander Andrzej; Bergen Jensen, Marina; Mahura, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    Like most other places, European metropolitan areas will face a range of climate-related challenges over the next decades that may influence the nature of urban life across the continent. Under future urbanization and climate change scenarios the well-being and comfort of the urban population might become progressively compromised. In urban areas, the effects of the warming climate will be accelerated by combination of Urban Heat Island effect (UHI) and extreme heat waves. The land cover composition directly influences atmospheric variability, and can either escalate or downscale the projected changes. Vegetation, forest ecosystems in particular, are anticipated to play an important role in modulating local and regional climatic conditions, and to be vital factor in the process of adapting cities to warming climate. This study investigates the impact of forest and land-cover change on formation and development of temperature regimes in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Area (CPH-MA). Potential to modify the UHI effect in CPH-MA is estimated. Using 2009 meteorological data, and up-to-date 2012 high resolution land-cover data we employed the online integrated meteorology-chemistry/aerosols Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - High Resolution Limited Area Model) modeling system to simulate air temperature (at 2 meter height) fields for a selected period in July 2009. Employing research tools (such as METGRAF meteorological software and Geographical Information Systems) we then estimated the influence of different afforestation and urbanization scenarios with new forests being located after the Danish national afforestation plan, after proximity to the city center, after dominating wind characteristics, and urbanization taking place as densification of the existing conurbation. This study showed the difference in temperature up to 3.25°C, and the decrease in the spatial extent of temperature fields up to 68%, depending on the selected scenario. Performed simulations demonstrated

  4. Nitrogen partitioning in oak leaves depends on species, provenance, climate conditions and soil type.

    PubMed

    Hu, B; Simon, J; Kuster, T M; Arend, M; Siegwolf, R; Rennenberg, H

    2013-01-01

    Climate-tolerant tree species and/or provenances have to be selected to ensure the high productivity of managed forests in Central Europe under the prognosticated climate changes. For this purpose, we studied the responses of saplings from three oak species (i.e. Quercus robur, Q. petraea and Q. pubescens) and provenances of different climatic origin (i.e. low or high rainfall, low or high temperature habitats) with regard to leaf nitrogen (N) composition as a measure of N nutrition. Saplings were grown in model ecosystems on either calcareous or acidic soil and subjected to one of four treatments (control, drought, air warming or a combination of drought and air warming). Across species, oak N metabolism responded to the influence of drought and/or air warming with an increase in leaf amino acid N concentration at the expense of structural N. Moreover, provenances or species from drier habitats were more tolerant to the climate conditions applied, as indicated by an increase in amino acid N (comparing species) or soluble protein N (comparing provenances within a species). Furthermore, amino acid N concentrations of oak leaves were significantly higher on calcareous compared to acidic soil. From these results, it can be concluded that seeds from provenances or species originating from drier habitats and - if available - from calcareous soil types may provide a superior seed source for future forest establishment. PMID:22934888

  5. Nitrogen partitioning in oak leaves depends on species, provenance, climate conditions and soil type.

    PubMed

    Hu, B; Simon, J; Kuster, T M; Arend, M; Siegwolf, R; Rennenberg, H

    2013-01-01

    Climate-tolerant tree species and/or provenances have to be selected to ensure the high productivity of managed forests in Central Europe under the prognosticated climate changes. For this purpose, we studied the responses of saplings from three oak species (i.e. Quercus robur, Q. petraea and Q. pubescens) and provenances of different climatic origin (i.e. low or high rainfall, low or high temperature habitats) with regard to leaf nitrogen (N) composition as a measure of N nutrition. Saplings were grown in model ecosystems on either calcareous or acidic soil and subjected to one of four treatments (control, drought, air warming or a combination of drought and air warming). Across species, oak N metabolism responded to the influence of drought and/or air warming with an increase in leaf amino acid N concentration at the expense of structural N. Moreover, provenances or species from drier habitats were more tolerant to the climate conditions applied, as indicated by an increase in amino acid N (comparing species) or soluble protein N (comparing provenances within a species). Furthermore, amino acid N concentrations of oak leaves were significantly higher on calcareous compared to acidic soil. From these results, it can be concluded that seeds from provenances or species originating from drier habitats and - if available - from calcareous soil types may provide a superior seed source for future forest establishment.

  6. Uncertainties in Predicting Rice Yield by Current Crop Models Under a Wide Range of Climatic Conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Li, Tao; Hasegawa, Toshihiro; Yin, Xinyou; Zhu, Yan; Boote, Kenneth; Adam, Myriam; Bregaglio, Simone; Buis, Samuel; Confalonieri, Roberto; Fumoto, Tamon; Gaydon, Donald; Marcaida, Manuel, III; Nakagawa, Hiroshi; Oriol, Philippe; Ruane, Alex C.; Ruget, Francoise; Singh, Balwinder; Singh, Upendra; Tang, Liang; Tao, Fulu; Wilkens, Paul; Yoshida, Hiroe; Zhang, Zhao; Bouman, Bas

    2014-01-01

    Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluated 13 rice models against multi-year experimental yield data at four sites with diverse climatic conditions in Asia and examined whether different modeling approaches on major physiological processes attribute to the uncertainties of prediction to field measured yields and to the uncertainties of sensitivity to changes in temperature and CO2 concentration [CO2]. We also examined whether a use of an ensemble of crop models can reduce the uncertainties. Individual models did not consistently reproduce both experimental and regional yields well, and uncertainty was larger at the warmest and coolest sites. The variation in yield projections was larger among crop models than variation resulting from 16 global climate model-based scenarios. However, the mean of predictions of all crop models reproduced experimental data, with an uncertainty of less than 10 percent of measured yields. Using an ensemble of eight models calibrated only for phenology or five models calibrated in detail resulted in the uncertainty equivalent to that of the measured yield in well-controlled agronomic field experiments. Sensitivity analysis indicates the necessity to improve the accuracy in predicting both biomass and harvest index in response to increasing [CO2] and temperature.

  7. Uncertainties in predicting rice yield by current crop models under a wide range of climatic conditions.

    PubMed

    Li, Tao; Hasegawa, Toshihiro; Yin, Xinyou; Zhu, Yan; Boote, Kenneth; Adam, Myriam; Bregaglio, Simone; Buis, Samuel; Confalonieri, Roberto; Fumoto, Tamon; Gaydon, Donald; Marcaida, Manuel; Nakagawa, Hiroshi; Oriol, Philippe; Ruane, Alex C; Ruget, Françoise; Singh, Balwinder-; Singh, Upendra; Tang, Liang; Tao, Fulu; Wilkens, Paul; Yoshida, Hiroe; Zhang, Zhao; Bouman, Bas

    2015-03-01

    Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluated 13 rice models against multi-year experimental yield data at four sites with diverse climatic conditions in Asia and examined whether different modeling approaches on major physiological processes attribute to the uncertainties of prediction to field measured yields and to the uncertainties of sensitivity to changes in temperature and CO2 concentration [CO2 ]. We also examined whether a use of an ensemble of crop models can reduce the uncertainties. Individual models did not consistently reproduce both experimental and regional yields well, and uncertainty was larger at the warmest and coolest sites. The variation in yield projections was larger among crop models than variation resulting from 16 global climate model-based scenarios. However, the mean of predictions of all crop models reproduced experimental data, with an uncertainty of less than 10% of measured yields. Using an ensemble of eight models calibrated only for phenology or five models calibrated in detail resulted in the uncertainty equivalent to that of the measured yield in well-controlled agronomic field experiments. Sensitivity analysis indicates the necessity to improve the accuracy in predicting both biomass and harvest index in response to increasing [CO2 ] and temperature.

  8. Conditioning of Flow Projections under Climate Change on Hydrologic Signatures within the GLUE Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Todorovic, Andrijana; Plavsic, Jasna; Despotovic, Jovan

    2016-04-01

    Climate change impact on water resources is generally quantified in terms of relative changes in characteristic flows (e.g. annual runoff, median annual flows, etc.) over a future period compared to the baseline one. These changes are estimated under the assumed emission scenarios and with one or more modelling chains (combinations of the Global and Regional Climate Models, and a hydrological model). Since different modelling chains yield different projections, estimates of these relative changes are uncertain. High prediction uncertainty is reflected in a wide 90 per cent prediction uncertainty band (90PPU) or in a distribution that resembles the uniform distribution. Therefore, research in robustness of the modelling chains has been conducted. The goal of the research is to appoint higher probabilities to the projections obtained by the more robust chains, and in that way reduce the uncertainty in flow projections under climate change. In this research, the hydrologic projections are conditioned on the hydrologic signatures within the GLUE framework. Namely, a relative change obtained with a modelling chain is assigned a likelihood depending on the performance of the chain in terms of the hydrologic signatures over the baseline period. High flow projections (2nd percentile of the daily flows) are conditioned on the high-segment of the flow duration curve (FDC), projections of the median flows are conditioned on the FDC mid-segment slope, and the projections of the low flows are conditioned on the FDC low-segment. The projections of total annual runoff are conditioned on the entire FDC. The likelihoods are quantified in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) evaluated from the FDCs of the flows simulated by the modelling chains and the observed FDC. The methodology presented is applied to develop flow projections in the Kolubara River catchment in Serbia over the mid 21st century (2041-2070). Hydrologic projections are obtained by the HBV

  9. Synoptic conditions of extreme windstorms over Switzerland in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goyette, Stéphane

    2011-03-01

    This paper reports on a method using composites for studying synoptic conditions of a series of windstorm events selected on the basis of maximum wind speeds in Switzerland. The composite storm-averaged conditions indicate how flow fields, as well as related surface conditions, are organised so as to produce high wind speeds near the surface. On average, high winds in Switzerland, mainly generated by transient synoptic-scale eddies, are characterised by a minimum in the mean sea level pressure field over southern Norway, anticyclonic conditions south of 35°N and a steep pressure gradient over continental western Europe. The geopotential aloft has a predominant zonal structure, producing high winds between 45°N and 50°N over the eastern Atlantic and further inland; the jet stream has its maximum speed at 50°N over the Celtic Sea and Brittany at 250 hPa. Close to the surface, large temperature contrasts between the warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea and the cooler continent are diagnosed. The results thus obtained differ to those produced by other methods based on the analysis of deep cyclones or of strong vorticity in the northern North Atlantic Ocean basin. Differences of the composite mean synoptic conditions for current (1961-1990) and future climate (2071-2100) as simulated by the Global Climate Model HadAM3H in the context of the EU PRUDENCE project indicate that windstorms in a warmer world are generated by a subtle modification of the atmospheric baroclinicity, especially over the ocean and where greater ocean-continent temperature contrasts are simulated during winters. However, there are no signs of reduced storm activity as the climate warms by the end of the twenty-first century.

  10. Germination success and seedling development of Argania spinosa under different climatic conditions and browsing intensity.

    PubMed

    Zunzunegui, María; Jáuregui, Juan; Ain-Lhout, Fatima; Boutaled, Said; Alvarez-Cansino, Leonor; Esquivias, Maripaz

    2013-01-01

    The present study assesses whether the germination and establishment success of Argania spinosa seeds are affected by the environmental conditions under which the mother plant has grown. Seeds from three populations with different climatic conditions and herbivory intensity were collected and sown in the laboratory after different treatments. Our study suggests that the seed germination process and initial stages of seedling growth are adaptive. Seeds from the population of Agadir with the highest herbivory pressure and high air relative humidity in summer (due to the proximity to the sea) were stimulated by acid treatment, and showed a lower root/stem ratio, which allows them to take advantage of the atmospheric water resources. Seeds from the Mountain population, where the most arid environmental conditions were found, produced early-germinating seeds with the highest root/stem ratio that would facilitate seedling establishment when the harshest environmental conditions appear in summer.

  11. Germination success and seedling development of Argania spinosa under different climatic conditions and browsing intensity.

    PubMed

    Zunzunegui, María; Jáuregui, Juan; Ain-Lhout, Fatima; Boutaled, Said; Alvarez-Cansino, Leonor; Esquivias, Maripaz

    2013-01-01

    The present study assesses whether the germination and establishment success of Argania spinosa seeds are affected by the environmental conditions under which the mother plant has grown. Seeds from three populations with different climatic conditions and herbivory intensity were collected and sown in the laboratory after different treatments. Our study suggests that the seed germination process and initial stages of seedling growth are adaptive. Seeds from the population of Agadir with the highest herbivory pressure and high air relative humidity in summer (due to the proximity to the sea) were stimulated by acid treatment, and showed a lower root/stem ratio, which allows them to take advantage of the atmospheric water resources. Seeds from the Mountain population, where the most arid environmental conditions were found, produced early-germinating seeds with the highest root/stem ratio that would facilitate seedling establishment when the harshest environmental conditions appear in summer. PMID:23472450

  12. Bat reproduction declines when conditions mimic climate change projections for western North America.

    PubMed

    Adams, Rick A

    2010-08-01

    Climate change models predict that much of western North America is becoming significantly warmer and drier, resulting in overall reductions in availability of water for ecosystems. Herein, I demonstrate that significant declines in the reproductive success of female insectivorous bats occur in years when annual environmental conditions mimic the long-term predictions of regional climate change models. Using a data set gathered on bat populations from 1996 through 2008 along the Front Range of Colorado, I compare trends in population numbers and reproductive outcomes of six species of vespertilionid bats with data on mean annual high temperature, precipitation, snow pack, and stream discharge rates. I show that levels of precipitation and flow rates of small streams near maternity colonies is fundamentally tied to successful reproduction in female bats, particularly during the lactation phase. Across years that experienced greater than average mean temperatures with less than average precipitation and stream flow, bat populations responded by slight to profound reductions in reproductive output depending on the severity of drought conditions. In particular, reproductive outputs showed profound declines (32-51%) when discharge rates of the largest stream in the field area dropped below 7 m3/s, indicating a threshold response. Such sensitivity to environmental change portends severe impacts to regional bat populations if current scenarios for climate change in western North America are accurate. In addition, bats act as early-warning indicators of large-scale ecological effects resulting from further regional warming and drying trends currently at play in western North America.

  13. Soil nitrous oxide emissions under climate change in Mediterranean dryland conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Álvaro-Fuentes, Jorge; Arrúe, José Luis; Plaza-Bonilla, Daniel; Cantero-Martínez, Carlos

    2016-04-01

    Soils play a double role in relation with climate change. Soils have the ability to decrease atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration throughout soil carbon sequestration and, concurrently, they are also a main source of greenhouse gases. Particularly, agricultural soils are major emitters of nitrous oxide (N2O) globally. Recent outputs from general circulation models show that in the near future drought stress would be especially critical in the Mediterranean basin. These predictions could have a noteworthy impact on soil N2O emissions. Consequently, current mitigation options might be no longer valid in the near future. The main objective of this work was to determine the capability of different land uses under climate change conditions to mitigate soil N2O emissions in Mediterranean dryland agroecosystems. Soil N2O emissions were measured during 18 months (from December 2011 to June 2013) under different land uses in a typical Mediterranean agroecosystem. The observed data was used to test the ability of the Daycent model to simulate N2O emissions in dryland Mediterranean soils. Next, the model was used to predict the impact of climate change on soil N2O emissions under different land use scenarios in Mediterranean conditions.

  14. Simulating runoff under changing climatic conditions: Revisiting an apparent deficiency of conceptual rainfall-runoff models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fowler, Keirnan J. A.; Peel, Murray C.; Western, Andrew W.; Zhang, Lu; Peterson, Tim J.

    2016-03-01

    Hydrologic models have potential to be useful tools in planning for future climate variability. However, recent literature suggests that the current generation of conceptual rainfall runoff models tend to underestimate the sensitivity of runoff to a given change in rainfall, leading to poor performance when evaluated over multiyear droughts. This research revisited this conclusion, investigating whether the observed poor performance could be due to insufficient model calibration and evaluation techniques. We applied an approach based on Pareto optimality to explore trade-offs between model performance in different climatic conditions. Five conceptual rainfall runoff model structures were tested in 86 catchments in Australia, for a total of 430 Pareto analyses. The Pareto results were then compared with results from a commonly used model calibration and evaluation method, the Differential Split Sample Test. We found that the latter often missed potentially promising parameter sets within a given model structure, giving a false negative impression of the capabilities of the model. This suggests that models may be more capable under changing climatic conditions than previously thought. Of the 282[347] cases of apparent model failure under the split sample test using the lower [higher] of two model performance criteria trialed, 155[120] were false negatives. We discuss potential causes of remaining model failures, including the role of data errors. Although the Pareto approach proved useful, our aim was not to suggest an alternative calibration strategy, but to critically assess existing methods of model calibration and evaluation. We recommend caution when interpreting split sample results.

  15. Effects of Simulated Climate Conditions on Phosphorus Cycling in an Annual Grassland Ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mellett, T.; Paytan, A.; Defforey, D.; Roberts, K.

    2014-12-01

    The Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment is a long-term study of the effects of simulated climate change conditions on an annual grassland ecosystem. The different treatments consist of elevated atmospheric CO2 levels, enhanced nitrate deposition, as well as higher temperatures and precipitation rates. A representative portion of the above ground vegetation from each plot is harvested. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of different climate conditions on the phosphorus content and phosphorus cycling in terrestrial plants. Since phosphorus only has one stable isotope, the δ18O signature in phosphate is used as a proxy to investigate phosphorus cycling. Although this technique has been successful in determining phosphorous cycling in aquatic systems, only a few studies have used this approach for terrestrial ecosystems. We analyzed the δ18O of the most abundant grass from each of the plots and treatments. The δ18O values of each sample are compared to elemental budgets of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorous for correlation as well as soil enzyme activities. and the combination of measures are assessed as indicators for phosphorus limitation in each respective treatment site and provide a better understanding of phosphorus cycling in annual grasslands and the potential effects of climate change on phosphorus cycling.

  16. Effects of Simulated Climate Conditions on Phosphorus Cycling in an Annual Grassland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mellett, T.; Defforey, D.; Paytan, A.

    2012-12-01

    The Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment is a long-term study of the effects of simulated climate change conditions on an annual grassland. The different treatments consist of elevated atmospheric CO2 levels, enhanced nitrate deposition, as well as higher temperatures and precipitation rates. The above ground vegetation from each plot is harvested and separated by species, with the dominant species being selected for analysis. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of different climate conditions on the phosphorus content and phosphorus cycling in terrestrial plants. Phosphorus content in grass samples is determined using the colorimetric reaction (soluble reactive phosphorus content), as well as combustion and acid digestion (total phosphorus content). Since phosphorus only has one stable isotope, the δ18O signature in phosphate is used as a proxy to investigate phosphorus cycling in this ecosystem. These three tools will be combined and evaluated as indicators for phosphorus limitation in each respective treatment site and provide a better understanding of phosphorus cycling in annual grasslands and the potential effects of climate change on phosphorus cycling.

  17. Associations between childhood adversity, adult stressful life events, and past-year drug use disorders in the National Epidemiological Study of Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC).

    PubMed

    Myers, Bronwyn; McLaughlin, Katie A; Wang, Shuai; Blanco, Carlos; Stein, Dan J

    2014-12-01

    Stress sensitization, whereby CA lowers tolerance to later stressors, has been proposed as a potential mechanism explaining the association between exposure to childhood adversities (CA) and drug use disorders in adulthood. However, this mechanism remains untested. This paper begins to address this gap through exploring associations between CA exposure and stressful events in adulthood for predicting drug use disorders. We used data drawn from Wave 2 of the U.S. National Epidemiological Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions (n = 34,653) to explore whether the association between past-year stressful life events and the 12-month prevalence of disordered cannabis, stimulant, and opiate use varied by the number of types of CA that an individual was exposed to. Past-year stressful life events were associated with an increased risk of cannabis, stimulant, and opiate use disorders among men and women. Exposure to CA was associated with increased risk for disordered cannabis use among men and women and opiate use among men only. Finally, we found significant associations between exposure to CA and past-year stressful life events in predicting disordered drug use, but only for women in relation to disordered stimulant and opiate use. Findings are suggestive of possible stress sensitization effects in predicting disordered stimulant and opiate use among women. Implications of these findings for the prevention and treatment of drug use disorders and for future research are discussed.

  18. Climatic conditions for the last Neanderthals: Herpetofaunal record of Gorham’s Cave, Gibraltar.

    PubMed

    Blain, Hugues-Alexandre; Gleed-Owen, Chris P; López-García, Juan Manuel; Carrión, José Sebastian; Jennings, Richard; Finlayson, Geraldine; Finlayson, Clive; Giles-Pacheco, Francisco

    2013-04-01

    Gorham’s Cave is located in the British territory of Gibraltar in the southernmost end of the Iberian Peninsula. Recent excavations, which began in 1997, have exposed an 18 m archaeological sequence that covered the last evidence of Neanderthal occupation and the first evidence of modern human occupation in the cave. By applying the Mutual Climatic Range method on the amphibian and reptile assemblages, we propose here new quantitative data on the terrestrial climatic conditions throughout the latest Pleistocene sequence of Gorham’s Cave. In comparison with current climatic data, all mean annual temperatures were about 1.6-1.8 degrees C lower in this region. Winters were colder and summers were similar to today. Mean annual precipitation was slightly lower, but according to the Aridity Index of Gaussen there were only four dry months during the latest Pleistocene as opposed to five dry months today during the summer. The climate was Mediterranean and semi-arid (according to the Aridity Index of Dantin-Revenga) or semi-humid (according to the Aridity Index of Martonne). The atmospheric temperature range was higher during the latest Pleistocene, mainly due to lower winter temperatures. Such data support recent bioclimatic models, which indicate that high rainfall levels may have been a significant factor in the late survival of Neanderthal populations in southern Iberia. The Solutrean levels of Gorham’s Cave and climate records from cores in the Alboran Sea indicate increasing aridity from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3-2. Because Neanderthals seem to have been associated with woodland habitats, we propose that lessening rainfall may have caused the degradation of large areas of forest and may have made late surviving Neanderthal populations more vulnerable outside southern refuges like the Rock of Gibraltar.

  19. A new large initial condition ensemble to assess avoided impacts in a climate mitigation scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanderson, B. M.; Tebaldi, C.; Knutti, R.; Oleson, K. W.

    2014-12-01

    It has recently been demonstrated that when considering timescales of up to 50 years, natural variability may play an equal role to anthropogenic forcing on subcontinental trends for a variety of climate indicators. Thus, for many questions assessing climate impacts on such time and spatial scales, it has become clear that a significant number of ensemble members may be required to produce robust statistics (and especially so for extreme events). However, large ensemble experiments to date have considered the role of variability in a single scenario, leaving uncertain the relationship between the forced climate trajectory and the variability about that path. To address this issue, we present a new, publicly available, 15 member initial condition ensemble of 21st century climate projections for the RCP 4.5 scenario using the CESM1.1 Earth System Model, which we propose as a companion project to the existing 40 member CESM large ensemble which uses the higher greenhouse gas emission future of RCP8.5. This provides a valuable data set for assessing what societal and ecological impacts might be avoided through a moderate mitigation strategy in contrast to a fossil fuel intensive future. We present some early analyses of these combined ensembles to assess to what degree the climate variability can be considered to combine linearly with the underlying forced response. In regions where there is no detectable relationship between the mean state and the variability about the mean trajectory, then linear assumptions can be trivially exploited to utilize a single ensemble or control simulation to characterize the variability in any scenario of interest. We highlight regions where there is a detectable nonlinearity in extreme event frequency, how far in the future they will be manifested and propose mechanisms to account for these effects.

  20. Why do active and stabilized dunes coexist under the same climatic conditions?

    PubMed

    Yizhaq, Hezi; Ashkenazy, Yosef; Tsoar, Haim

    2007-05-01

    Sand dunes can be active (mobile) or stable, mainly as a function of vegetation cover and wind power. However, there exists as yet unexplained evidence for the coexistence of bare mobile dunes and vegetated stabilized dunes under the same climatic conditions. We propose a model for dune vegetation cover driven by wind power that exhibits bistabilty and hysteresis with respect to the wind power. For intermediate wind power, mobile and stabilized dunes can coexist, whereas for low (or high) wind power they can be fixed (or mobile). Climatic change or human intervention can turn active dunes into stable ones and vice versa; our model predicts that prolonged droughts with stronger winds can result in dune reactivation.

  1. Assessing potential changes of chestnut productivity in Europe under future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calheiros, T.; Pereira, M. G.; Pinto, J. G.; Caramelo, L.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Dacamara, C. C.

    2012-04-01

    The European chestnut is cultivated for its nuts and wood. Several studies point to the dependency of chestnut productivity on specific soil and climate characteristics. For instance, this species dislikes chalky and poorly drained soils, appreciates sedimentary, siliceous and acidic to neutral soils. Chestnut trees also seems to appreciate annual mean values of sunlight spanning between 2400 and 2600 h, rainfall ranging between 600 and 1500 mm, mean annual temperature between 9 and 13°C, 27°C being the mean of the maximum temperature (Heiniger and Conedera, 1992; Gomes-Laranjo et al.,2008). The amount of heat between May and October must range between 1800°D and 2400°D (Dinis et al., 2011) . In Poland, the growing season is defined as the period of time when the mean 24-h temperature is greater than 5°C (Wilczynski and Podalski, 2007). In Portugal, maximum photosynthetic activity occurs at 24-28°C for adult trees, but exhibits more than 50% of termoinhibition when the air temperature is above 32°C, which is frequent during summer (Gomes- Laranjo et al., 2006, 2008). Recently Pereira et al (2011) identified a set of meteorological variables/parameters with high impact on chestnut productivity. The main purpose of this work is to assess the potential impacts of future climate change on chestnut productivity in Portugal as well as on European chestnut orchards. First, observed data from the European Climate assessment (ECA) and simulations with the Regional Circulation Model (RCM) COSMO-CLM for recent climate conditions are used to assess the ability of the RCM to model the actual meteorological conditions. Then, ensemble projections from the ECHAM5/COSMO-CLM model chain for two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) are used to estimate the values of relevant meteorological variables and parameters und future climate conditions. Simulated values are then compared with those obtained for present climate. Results point to changes in the spatial and temporal

  2. Earlier breeding, lower success: does the spatial scale of climatic conditions matter in a migratory passerine bird?

    PubMed

    Grimm, Annegret; Weiß, Brigitte M; Kulik, Lars; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Mundry, Roger; Köppen, Ulrich; Brueckmann, Tomas; Thomsen, Ruth; Widdig, Anja

    2015-12-01

    Following over 20 years of research on the climatic effects on biodiversity we now have strong evidence that climate change affects phenology, fitness, and distribution ranges of different taxa, including birds. Bird phenology likely responds to changes in local weather. It is also affected by climatic year-to-year variations on larger scales. Although such scale-related effects are common in ecology, most studies analyzing the effects of climate change were accomplished using climatic information on a single spatial scale. In this study, we aimed at determining the scale-dependent sensitivity of breeding phenology and success to climate change in a migratory passerine bird, the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica). For both annual broods, we investigated effects of local weather (local scale) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, large scale) on the timing of breeding and breeding success. Consistent with previous studies in migratory birds we found that barn swallows in Eastern Germany bred progressively earlier. At the same time, they showed reduced breeding success over time in response to recent climatic changes. Responses to climatic variation were observed on both local and large climatic scales, but they differed with respect to the ecological process considered. Specifically, we found that the timing of breeding was primarily influenced by large-scale NAO variations and to a lesser extent by local weather on the breeding grounds. Conversely, climatic conditions on the local scale affected breeding success, exclusively. The observed decrease in breeding success over years is likely a consequence of scale-related mismatches between climatic conditions during different breeding phases. This provides further evidence that a species' response of earlier breeding may not be enough to cope with climate change. Our results emphasize the importance of considering the response of ecological processes along different climatic scales in order to better understand the

  3. Effect of wetland types on methane emission from Russian frozen wetlands under conditions of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reneva, S.

    2010-09-01

    Natural wetlands are responsible for the majority of global methane emissions from natural sources, accounting for about 175 Mt of methane per year (IPCC 2007). The climate change will have significant impact on permafrost, leading to thawing of the frozen wetlands and release of carbon to the atmosphere. The potential feedback to climate system depends on both the soil pool size and the rate of release to the atmosphere. Earlier studies suggest that Northern peat deposits store about 500 Pg C, of which about 278 PgC is located in permafrost regions. More recent data indicate that the circumpolar permafrost region may contain 1024 Pg of soil C in the surface 0-3 m depth, and additional 648 Pg C in deeper layers up to 25 m thick. This carbon may become available for decomposition under warmer climatic conditions. In this study we focus on permafrost wetlands because they favour the production of methane in the anaerobic carbon-rich soil layer. Methane has 21-times stronger greenhouse effect than the equal amount of CO2, and there are growing concerns that enhanced CH4 emission may have significant effect on the global radiative forcing. The goal of our study was to estimate the potential increase in the methane emission from Russian frozen wetlands under the projected for the mid-21st century climatic conditions and to evaluate the effect it may have on global radiative forcing. Unlike it was a case with the preceding study, we explicitly take into account the difference in methane production rates in different wetland types. To accomplish this goal, we constructed the map of different wetland provinces, as defined by Katz classification and overlaid it by the digital geographically referenced contours of Russian wetlands from 1:1,000,000-scale topographic maps. As a result, we calculated the total area and the fraction of land each wetland type occupies in the nodes of 0.5 by 0.5 degree lat/long regular grid spanning permafrost regions. These data were combined

  4. Effects of climatic conditions and soil properties on Cabernet Sauvignon berry growth and anthocyanin profiles.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Guo; He, Yan-Nan; Yue, Tai-Xin; Wang, Jun; Zhang, Zhen-Wen

    2014-01-01

    Climatic conditions and soil type have significant influence on grape ripening and wine quality. The reported study was conducted in two "Cabernet Sauvignon (Vitis vinifera L.V)" vineyards located in Xinjiang, a semiarid wine-producing region of China during two vintages (2011 and 2012). The results indicate that soil and climate affected berry growth and anthocyanin profiles. These two localities were within a distance of 5 km from each other and had soils of different physical and chemical composition. For each vineyard, the differences of anthocyanin concentrations, and parameters concerning berry growth and composition between the two years could be explained by different climatic conditions. Soil effect was studied by investigation of differences in berry composition and anthocyanin profiles between the two vineyards in the same year, which could be explained mainly by the different soil properties, vine water and nitrogen status. Specifically, the soils with less water and organic matter produced looser clusters, heavier berry skins and higher TSS, which contributed to the excellent performance of grapes. Compared with 2011, the increases in anthocyanin concentrations for each vineyard in 2012 could be attributed to smaller number of extreme temperature (>35 °C) days and rainfall, lower vine water status and N level. The explanation for higher anthocyanin concentrations in grape skins from the soils with less water and organic matter could be the vine status differences, lighter berry weight and heavier skin weight at harvest. In particular, grapes from the soils with less water and organic matter had higher levels of 3'5'-substituded, O-methylated and acylated anthocyanins, which represented a positive characteristic conferring more stable pigmentation to the corresponding wine in the future. The present work clarifies the effects of climate and soil on berry growth and anthocyanin profiles, thus providing guidance for production of high-quality wine grapes

  5. Tree growth and forest ecosystem functioning in Eurasia under extreme climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saurer, Matthias; Kirdyanov, Alexander; Prokushkin, Anatoly; Bryukhanova, Marina; Knorre, Anastasia; Nasyrov, Muhtor; Frank, David; Treydte, Kerstin; Sidorova, Olga; Siegwolf, Rolf

    2013-04-01

    The main goal of this study is to improve our understanding of the influence of a changing climate on trees in extreme conditions by a detailed analysis of the factors controlling tree-ring growth. We investigated forest ecosystems in regions that are very sensitive to climatic changes and where rapid and dramatic environmental and climatic changes are on-going, namely, the high latitude permafrost region in Central Siberia (Russia), the semi-arid dry areas in Central Asia (Uzbekistan) and high-altitude sites in the Alps (Switzerland). Tree-ring parameters studied were ring-width, density, cell number and structure and the ratio of carbon and oxygen isotopes. An important aspect of the work was the characterization of seasonal growth and water supply of trees. Intra-seasonal dynamics of tree-ring formation was correlated with monitored environmental factors, such as air and soil temperature and moisture, permafrost depth and the isotope composition of soil water, of precipitation, and of stream water. Intra-annual and long-term variability of the main tree-ring parameters were compared for the different regions. The results obtained help us to understand better tree-physiological processes valid under contrasting environmental conditions. For instance, the relationship between the onset of cell division in the cambium and the thermo-hydrological soil regime was used to determine the period of the year with the highest influence on the start of tree-ring formation. Seasonally resolved oxygen isotope depth profiles of soil water and concurrent xylem and leaf water measurements show the importance of time-lags between precipitation, leaf processes and growth. The data obtained are important for improving tree-ring growth models and estimating future tree growth under climate change. Funding: SNF SCOPES IZ73Z0_128035

  6. Thermal State Of Permafrost In Urban Environment Under Changing Climatic Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Streletskiy, D. A.; Grebenets, V. I.; Kerimov, A. G.; Kurchatova, A.; Andruschenko, F.; Gubanov, A.

    2015-12-01

    Risks and damage, caused by deformation of building and constructions in cryolithozone, are growing for decades. Worsening of cryo-ecological situation and loss of engineering-geocryological safety are induced by both technogenic influences on frozen basement and climate change. In such towns on permafrost as Vorkuta, Dixon more than 60% of objects are deformed, in Yakutsk, Igarka- nearly 40%, in Norilsk, Talnakh, Mirnij 35%, in old indigenous villages - approximately 100%; more than 80% ground dams with frozen cores are in poor condition. This situation is accompanied by activation of dangerous cryogenic processes. For example in growing seasonally-thaw layer is strengthening frost heave of pipeline foundation: only on Yamburg gas condensate field (Taz Peninsula) are damaged by frost heave and cut or completely replaced 3000 - 5000 foundations of gas pipelines. Intensity of negative effects strongly depends on regional geocryology, technogenic loads and climatic trends, and in Arctic we see a temperature rise - warming, which cause permafrost temperature rise and thaw). In built areas heat loads are more diverse: cold foundations (under the buildings with ventilated cellars or near termosyphons) are close to warm areas with technogenic beddings (mainly sandy), that accumulate heat, close to underground collectors for communications, growing thaw zones around, close to storages of snows, etc. Note that towns create specific microclimate with higher air temperature. So towns are powerful technogenic (basically, thermal) presses, placed on permafrost; in cooperation with climate changes (air temperature rise, increase of precipitation) they cause permafrost degradation. The analysis of dozens of urban thermal fields, formed in variable cryological and soil conditions, showed, that nearly 70% have warming trend, 20% - cooling and in 10% of cases the situation after construction is stable. Triggered by warming of climate changes of vegetation, depth and temperature of

  7. Effects of climatic conditions and soil properties on Cabernet Sauvignon berry growth and anthocyanin profiles.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Guo; He, Yan-Nan; Yue, Tai-Xin; Wang, Jun; Zhang, Zhen-Wen

    2014-09-02

    Climatic conditions and soil type have significant influence on grape ripening and wine quality. The reported study was conducted in two "Cabernet Sauvignon (Vitis vinifera L.V)" vineyards located in Xinjiang, a semiarid wine-producing region of China during two vintages (2011 and 2012). The results indicate that soil and climate affected berry growth and anthocyanin profiles. These two localities were within a distance of 5 km from each other and had soils of different physical and chemical composition. For each vineyard, the differences of anthocyanin concentrations, and parameters concerning berry growth and composition between the two years could be explained by different climatic conditions. Soil effect was studied by investigation of differences in berry composition and anthocyanin profiles between the two vineyards in the same year, which could be explained mainly by the different soil properties, vine water and nitrogen status. Specifically, the soils with less water and organic matter produced looser clusters, heavier berry skins and higher TSS, which contributed to the excellent performance of grapes. Compared with 2011, the increases in anthocyanin concentrations for each vineyard in 2012 could be attributed to smaller number of extreme temperature (>35 °C) days and rainfall, lower vine water status and N level. The explanation for higher anthocyanin concentrations in grape skins from the soils with less water and organic matter could be the vine status differences, lighter berry weight and heavier skin weight at harvest. In particular, grapes from the soils with less water and organic matter had higher levels of 3'5'-substituded, O-methylated and acylated anthocyanins, which represented a positive characteristic conferring more stable pigmentation to the corresponding wine in the future. The present work clarifies the effects of climate and soil on berry growth and anthocyanin profiles, thus providing guidance for production of high-quality wine grapes

  8. Should flood regimes change in a warming climate? The role of antecedent moisture conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woldemeskel, Fitsum; Sharma, Ashish

    2016-07-01

    Assessing changes to flooding is important for designing new and redesigning existing infrastructure to withstand future climates. While there is speculation that floods are likely to intensify in the future, this question is often difficult to assess due to inadequate records on streamflow extremes. An alternate way of determining possible extreme flooding is through assessment of the two key factors that lead to the intensification of floods: the intensification of causative rainfall and changes in the wetness conditions prior to rainfall. This study assesses global changes in the antecedent wetness prior to extreme rainfall. Our results indicate a significant increase in the antecedent moisture in Australia and Africa over the last century; however, there was also a decrease in Eurasia and insignificant change in North America. Given the nature of changes found in this study, any future flood assessment for global warming conditions should take into account antecedent moisture conditions.

  9. Sustainability of socio-hydro system with changing value and preference to an uncertain future climate and economic conditions.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roobavannan, Mahendran; Kandasamy, Jaya; Vigneswaran, Saravanamuththu; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2016-04-01

    Water-human systems are coupled and display co-evolutionary dynamics influenced by society's values and preference. This has been observed in the Murrumbidgee basin, Australia where water usage initially focused on agriculture production and until mid-1990's favoured agriculture. This turned around as society became more concerned about the degradation of ecosystems and ultimately water was reallocated back towards the environment. This new water management adversely impacted the agriculture sector and created economic stress in the basin. The basin communities were able to transform and cope with water allocation favouring the environment through sectoral transformation facilitated by movement of capital in a free economy, supported by appropriate strategies and funding. This was helped by the adaptive capacity of people through reemployment in other economic sectors of the basin economy, unemployment for a period of time and migration out of the basin, and crop diversification. This study looks to the future and focuses on how water managers could be informed and prepare for un-foreseen issues coming out of societies changing values and preferences and emerging as different systems in the basin interact with each other at different times and speed. The issues of this type that concern the Murray Darling Basin Authority include a renewed focus and priority on food production due to food scarcity; increased impact and frequency of natural disasters (eg. climate change); regional economic diversification due to the growth of peri-urban development in the basin; institutional capacity for water reform due to new political paradigms (eg. new water sharing plans); and improvement in science and technology (eg. farm practices, water efficiency, water reuse). To undertake this, the study uses a coupled socio-hydrological dynamical system that model the major drivers of changing economic conditions, society values and preference, climatic condition and science and

  10. Multisensor System for Isotemporal Measurements to Assess Indoor Climatic Conditions in Poultry Farms

    PubMed Central

    Bustamante, Eliseo; Guijarro, Enrique; García-Diego, Fernando-Juan; Balasch, Sebastián; Hospitaler, Antonio; Torres, Antonio G.

    2012-01-01

    The rearing of poultry for meat production (broilers) is an agricultural food industry with high relevance to the economy and development of some countries. Periodic episodes of extreme climatic conditions during the summer season can cause high mortality among birds, resulting in economic losses. In this context, ventilation systems within poultry houses play a critical role to ensure appropriate indoor climatic conditions. The objective of this study was to develop a multisensor system to evaluate the design of the ventilation system in broiler houses. A measurement system equipped with three types of sensors: air velocity, temperature and differential pressure was designed and built. The system consisted in a laptop, a data acquisition card, a multiplexor module and a set of 24 air temperature, 24 air velocity and two differential pressure sensors. The system was able to acquire up to a maximum of 128 signals simultaneously at 5 second intervals. The multisensor system was calibrated under laboratory conditions and it was then tested in field tests. Field tests were conducted in a commercial broiler farm under four different pressure and ventilation scenarios in two sections within the building. The calibration curves obtained under laboratory conditions showed similar regression coefficients among temperature, air velocity and pressure sensors and a high goodness fit (R2 = 0.99) with the reference. Under field test conditions, the multisensor system showed a high number of input signals from different locations with minimum internal delay in acquiring signals. The variation among air velocity sensors was not significant. The developed multisensor system was able to integrate calibrated sensors of temperature, air velocity and differential pressure and operated succesfully under different conditions in a mechanically-ventilated broiler farm. This system can be used to obtain quasi-instantaneous fields of the air velocity and temperature, as well as differential

  11. Behavior of crushed rock aggregates used in road construction exposed to cold climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuznetsova, Elena; Pérez Fortes, Ana Patricia; Anastasio, Sara; Willy Danielsen, Svein

    2016-04-01

    Presently, about 90% of the aggregate production in Europe comes from naturally occurring resources: quarries and pits. Due to the increased demand for sand and gravel for construction purposes, not only in building but also in road construction, the last decade has seen a significant trend towards the use of more crushed rock aggregates. This resource has been more and more preferred to sand and gravel thanks to the significant technological development of its process and use phase. The performance of the aggregates is generally evaluated depending on three main factors: the geological origin (mineral composition, texture, structure, degree of weathering), the aggregate processing (crushing, sieving, washing, storing) and the user technology for a specific area of use (e.g. road construction, asphalt binders). Nevertheless climatic conditions should carefully be taken into account in application such as road construction. Large temperature gradients and high levels of humidity are known to significantly affect the performance of the material. Although the problem is, at least in the asphalt field, considered mostly from the binder point of view, this article aims to investigate the effect of aggregate properties on road performance in cold climatic conditions. Two different climatic areas will be taken into account: Norway and Spain. While both these countries are listed among the main European producers of aggregates, they represent significantly different climatic regions. While Norwegian weather is characterized by humid cold winters and relatively mild summers, Spain has temperate climate with cold regions in mountainous and internal areas. Both countries have been significantly affected by climate change with increasing temperature variations and instability. At the same time, similar winter maintenance measures, including the use of a considerable amount of solid and liquid chemicals to avoid ice formation (e.g. NaCl) and/or to provide better friction, are

  12. Health hazards in areas of military operations conducted in different climatic and sanitary conditions.

    PubMed

    Korzeniewski, Krzysztof

    2011-01-01

    This paper reviews the most common health hazards occurring among personnel of peacekeeping and stabilization missions functioning within armed conflicts in the contemporary world. Military operations have been executed in diverse climatic and sanitary conditions, which are frequently unfamiliar for their participants. Some of them, e.g. the UN peacekeeping missions in the Middle East (Lebanon, the Golan Heights), have been carried out in a relatively stable geopolitical environment; whereas, stabilization missions in Iraq and Afghanistan, which are actually combat activities, undoubtedly fall into the group of the most perilous military operations in the world. Hot or cold climate, poor sanitary and hygienic conditions along with warfare facilitate the occurrence of numerous diseases and body injuries not only among the local people but also among peacekeepers, who represent the population of immigrants. Health hazards which pose major epidemiological threats in combat zones are arthropod-borne, food and water-borne, respiratory tract diseases, sexually transmitted diseases, enzootic diseases, battle injuries, and non- -battle injuries, e.g. traffic accidents. Another considerable health problem are psychiatric disorders, which can either appear directly after the occurrence of a traumatic event in a combat zone or indirectly, after some time had elapsed. In addition to the health hazards listed above, environmental factors such as changeable weather conditions and local fauna may also be life threatening. PMID:21534225

  13. The Impact of Organic Amendments on Soil Properties Under Mediterranean Climatic Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hueso Gonzalez, Paloma; Francisco Martinez Murillo, Juan; Damian Ruiz Sinoga, Jose

    2014-05-01

    Soil erosion and unsustainable land uses produce adverse effect on SOC content. Soil management techniques and corrections can be applied for soil recovery, especially, with afforestation purposes. This study presents the short term effects of the application of different treatments and amendments on soil properties for soils included in several sets of closed plots located in the experimental area of Pinarillo (Nerja, Spain). The analysed soil properties were: pH, EC, Organic Carbon, total Nitrogen and total Carbon. In order to verify possible differences, we applied the test of Mann-Whitney U in corroboration with the previous homogeneity test of variance. The result of each strategy set compared to the initial condition shows at least one significant modification in the analysed soil properties. Electrical conductivity was the most changeable soil property respect to the initial condition. Similarly, organic carbon content and total organic carbon remained quite similar. However, when all of the strategy sets are compared among them, total carbon was the most significantly changeable property. Mulching, polymers and urban residue seem to highly modify the soil initial conditions. Although soil physic-chemical parameters generally used to evaluate soil quality change very slowly. The analysed soil properties shows significant differences between dry and wet season. This fact, could be indicating the effect of certain seasonality as it is usual in Mediterranean condition.

  14. Small Scale Solar Cooling Unit in Climate Conditions of Latvia: Environmental and Economical Aspects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaunzems, Dzintars; Veidenbergs, Ivars

    2010-01-01

    The paper contributes to the analyses from the environmental and economical point of view of small scale solar cooling system in climate conditions of Latvia. Cost analyses show that buildings with a higher cooling load and full load hours have lower costs. For high internal gains, cooling costs are around 1,7 €/kWh and 2,5 €/kWh for buildings with lower internal gains. Despite the fact that solar cooling systems have significant potential to reduce CO2 emissions due to a reduction of electricity consumption, the economic feasibility and attractiveness of solar cooling system is still low.

  15. Improving the complementary methods to estimate evapotranspiration under diverse climatic and physical conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anayah, F. M.; Kaluarachchi, J. J.

    2014-06-01

    Reliable estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) is important for the purpose of water resources planning and management. Complementary methods, including complementary relationship areal evapotranspiration (CRAE), advection aridity (AA) and Granger and Gray (GG), have been used to estimate ET because these methods are simple and practical in estimating regional ET using meteorological data only. However, prior studies have found limitations in these methods especially in contrasting climates. This study aims to develop a calibration-free universal method using the complementary relationships to compute regional ET in contrasting climatic and physical conditions with meteorological data only. The proposed methodology consists of a systematic sensitivity analysis using the existing complementary methods. This work used 34 global FLUXNET sites where eddy covariance (EC) fluxes of ET are available for validation. A total of 33 alternative model variations from the original complementary methods were proposed. Further analysis using statistical methods and simplified climatic class definitions produced one distinctly improved GG-model-based alternative. The proposed model produced a single-step ET formulation with results equal to or better than the recent studies using data-intensive, classical methods. Average root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute bias (BIAS) and R2 (coefficient of determination) across 34 global sites were 20.57 mm month-1, 10.55 mm month-1 and 0.64, respectively. The proposed model showed a step forward toward predicting ET in large river basins with limited data and requiring no calibration.

  16. Improving the complementary methods to estimate evapotranspiration under diverse climatic and physical conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anayah, F. M.; Kaluarachchi, J. J.

    2013-11-01

    Reliable estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) is important for the purpose of water resources planning and management. Complementary methods, including Complementary Relationship Areal Evapotranspiration (CRAE), Advection-Aridity (AA) and Granger and Gray (GG), have been used to estimate ET because these methods are simple and practical in estimating regional ET using meteorological data only. However, prior studies have found limitations in these methods especially in contrasting climates. This study aims to develop a calibration-free universal model using the complementary relationships to compute regional ET in contrasting climatic and physical conditions with meteorological data only. The proposed methodology consists of a systematic sensitivity analysis using the existing complementary methods. This work used 34 global FLUXNET sites where eddy covariance (EC) fluxes of ET are available for validation. A total of 33 alternative model variations from the original complementary methods were proposed. Further analysis using statistical methods and simplified climatic class definitions produced one distinctly improved GG-model based alternative. The proposed model produced a single-step ET formulation with results equal or better than the recent studies using data-intensive, classical methods. Average root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute bias (BIAS) and R2 values across 34 global sites were 20.57 mm month-1, 10.55 mm month-1 and 0.64, respectively. The proposed model showed a step forward toward predicting ET in large river basins with limited data and requiring no calibration.

  17. A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Escobar, Luis E; Ryan, Sadie J; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Finkelstein, Julia L; King, Christine A; Qiao, Huijie; Polhemus, Mark E

    2015-09-01

    Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control.

  18. A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Escobar, Luis E; Ryan, Sadie J; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Finkelstein, Julia L; King, Christine A; Qiao, Huijie; Polhemus, Mark E

    2015-09-01

    Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control. PMID:26048558

  19. Sensitivity of Latent Heating Profiles to Environmental Conditions: Implications for TRMM and Climate Research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) as a part of NASA's Earth System Enterprise is the first mission dedicated to measuring tropical rainfall through microwave and visible sensors, and includes the first spaceborne rain radar. Tropical rainfall comprises two-thirds of global rainfall. It is also the primary distributor of heat through the atmosphere's circulation. It is this circulation that defines Earth's weather and climate. Understanding rainfall and its variability is crucial to understanding and predicting global climate change. Weather and climate models need an accurate assessment of the latent heating released as tropical rainfall occurs. Currently, cloud model-based algorithms are used to derive latent heating based on rainfall structure. Ultimately, these algorithms can be applied to actual data from TRMM. This study investigates key underlying assumptions used in developing the latent heating algorithms. For example, the standard algorithm is highly dependent on a system's rainfall amount and structure. It also depends on an a priori database of model-derived latent heating profiles based on the aforementioned rainfall characteristics. Unanswered questions remain concerning the sensitivity of latent heating profiles to environmental conditions (both thermodynamic and kinematic), regionality, and seasonality. This study investigates and quantifies such sensitivities and seeks to determine the optimal latent heating profile database based on the results. Ultimately, the study seeks to produce an optimized latent heating algorithm based not only on rainfall structure but also hydrometeor profiles.

  20. Methane emission from Russian frozen wetlands under conditions of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reneva, S.

    2009-04-01

    There is growing evidence that the climate change will have significant impact on permafrost, leading to warming, thawing, and disappearance of the frozen ground. Arctic soils contain 14%-30% of all the carbon stored in soils worldwide, many of which is accumulated in the Arctic wetlands (Anisimov & Reneva 2006). Wetlands occupy almost 2 million km2 in the circumpolar region, contain about 50 Gt C, and because of the high groundwater levels favour the production of methane in the anaerobic carbon-rich soil layer (Anisimov et al 2005). Methane has 21-times stronger greenhouse effect than the equal amount of CO2, and there are growing concerns that enhanced CH4 emission may have significant effect on the global radiative forcing. The goal of our study was to estimate the potential increase in the methane emission from Russian frozen wetlands under the projected for the mid-21st century climatic conditions and to evaluate the effect it may have on global radiative forcing. We used digital geographically referenced contours of Russian wetlands from 1:1,000,000-scale topographic maps to calculate the total area (350 000 km2) and the fraction of land they occupy in the nodes of 0.5 by 0.5 degree lat/long regular grid spanning permafrost regions. These data were overlaid with the results from predictive permafrost model (Anisimov & Belolutskaia 2003, Anisimov et al 1999) forced by CCC, HadCM3, GFDL, NCAR climatic projections for 2050 under B1 emission scenario (ref. http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/ and http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/IPCC/). Ultimately, we calculated the increase in the amount of organic material that may potentially become available for decomposition due to deeper seasonal thawing of wetlands in the Russian part of Arctic. Following (Christensen et al 2003a, Christensen et al 2003b) we hypothesised that the temperature and substrate availability combined explain almost entirely the variations in mean annual methane emissions. We used the results of numerous

  1. Groundwater-supported evapotranspiration within glaciated watersheds under conditions of climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cohen, D.; Person, M.; Daannen, R.; Locke, S.; Dahlstrom, D.; Zabielski, V.; Winter, T.C.; Rosenberry, D.O.; Wright, H.; Ito, E.; Nieber, J.L.; Gutowski, W.J.

    2006-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effects of geology and geomorphology on surface-water/-groundwater interactions, evapotranspiration, and recharge under conditions of long-term climatic change. Our analysis uses hydrologic data from the glaciated Crow Wing watershed in central Minnesota, USA, combined with a hydrologic model of transient coupled unsaturated/saturated flow (HYDRAT2D). Analysis of historical water-table (1970-1993) and lake-level (1924-2002) records indicates that larger amplitude and longer period fluctuations occur within the upland portions of watersheds due to the response of the aquifer system to relatively short-term climatic fluctuations. Under drought conditions, lake and water-table levels fell by as much as 2-4 m in the uplands but by 1 m in the lowlands. The same pattern can be seen on millennial time scales. Analysis of Holocene lake-core records indicates that Moody Lake, located near the outlet of the Crow Wing watershed, fell by as much as 4 m between about 4400 and 7000 yr BP. During the same time, water levels in Lake Mina, located near the upland watershed divide, fell by about 15 m. Reconstructed Holocene climate as represented by HYDRAT2D gives somewhat larger drops (6 and 24 m for Moody Lake and Lake Mina, respectively). The discrepancy is probably due to the effect of three-dimensional flow. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out to study how aquifer hydraulic conductivity and land-surface topography can influence water-table fluctuations, wetlands formation, and evapotranspiration. The models were run by recycling a wet year (1985, 87 cm annual precipitation) over a 10-year period followed by 20 years of drier and warmer climate (1976, 38 cm precipitation). Model results indicated that groundwater-supported evapotranspiration accounted for as much as 12% (10 cm) of evapotranspiration. The aquifers of highest hydraulic conductivity had the least amount of groundwater-supported evapotranspiration owing to a deep water table. Recharge

  2. Establishment and performance of an experimental green roof under extreme climatic conditions.

    PubMed

    Klein, Petra M; Coffman, Reid

    2015-04-15

    Green roofs alter the surface energy balance and can help in mitigating urban heat islands. However, the cooling of green roofs due to evapotranspiration strongly depends on the climatic conditions, and vegetation type and density. In the Southern Central Plains of the United States, extreme weather events, such as high winds, heat waves and drought conditions pose challenges for successful implementation of green roofs, and likely alter their standard performance. The National Weather Center Experimental Green Roof, an interdisciplinary research site established in 2010 in Norman, OK, aimed to investigate the ecological performance and surface energy balance of green roof systems. Starting in May 2010, 26 months of vegetation studies were conducted and the radiation balance, air temperature, relative humidity, and buoyancy fluxes were monitored at two meteorological stations during April-October 2011. The establishment of a vegetative community trended towards prairie plant dominance. High mortality of succulents and low germination of grasses and herbaceous plants contributed to low vegetative coverage. In this condition succulent diversity declined. Bouteloua gracilis and Delosperma cooperi showed typological dominance in harsh climatic conditions, while Sedum species experienced high mortality. The plant community diversified through volunteers such as Euphorbia maculate and Portulaca maculate. Net radiation measured at a green-roof meteorological station was higher than at a control station over the original, light-colored roofing material. These findings indicate that the albedo of the green roof was lower than the albedo of the original roofing material. The low vegetative coverage during the heat and drought conditions in 2011, which resulted in the dark substrate used in the green roof containers being exposed, likely contributed to the low albedo values. Nevertheless, air temperatures and buoyancy fluxes were often lower over the green roof indicating

  3. Establishment and performance of an experimental green roof under extreme climatic conditions.

    PubMed

    Klein, Petra M; Coffman, Reid

    2015-04-15

    Green roofs alter the surface energy balance and can help in mitigating urban heat islands. However, the cooling of green roofs due to evapotranspiration strongly depends on the climatic conditions, and vegetation type and density. In the Southern Central Plains of the United States, extreme weather events, such as high winds, heat waves and drought conditions pose challenges for successful implementation of green roofs, and likely alter their standard performance. The National Weather Center Experimental Green Roof, an interdisciplinary research site established in 2010 in Norman, OK, aimed to investigate the ecological performance and surface energy balance of green roof systems. Starting in May 2010, 26 months of vegetation studies were conducted and the radiation balance, air temperature, relative humidity, and buoyancy fluxes were monitored at two meteorological stations during April-October 2011. The establishment of a vegetative community trended towards prairie plant dominance. High mortality of succulents and low germination of grasses and herbaceous plants contributed to low vegetative coverage. In this condition succulent diversity declined. Bouteloua gracilis and Delosperma cooperi showed typological dominance in harsh climatic conditions, while Sedum species experienced high mortality. The plant community diversified through volunteers such as Euphorbia maculate and Portulaca maculate. Net radiation measured at a green-roof meteorological station was higher than at a control station over the original, light-colored roofing material. These findings indicate that the albedo of the green roof was lower than the albedo of the original roofing material. The low vegetative coverage during the heat and drought conditions in 2011, which resulted in the dark substrate used in the green roof containers being exposed, likely contributed to the low albedo values. Nevertheless, air temperatures and buoyancy fluxes were often lower over the green roof indicating

  4. Climate and Health Vulnerability to Vector-Borne Diseases: Increasing Resilience under Climate Change Conditions in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ceccato, P.

    2015-12-01

    The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the City University of New York (CUNY) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in collaboration with NASA SERVIR are developing tools to monitor climate variables (precipitation, temperature, vegetation, water bodies, inundation) that help projects in Africa to increase resilience to climate change for vector-borne diseases ( malaria, trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, and schistosomiasis). Through the development of new products to monitor precipitation, water bodies and inundation, IRI, CUNY and JPL provide tools and capacity building to research communities; ministries of health; the WMO Global Framework for Climate and Services; and World Health Organization in Africa to: 1) Develop research teams' ability to appropriately use climate data as part of their research 2) Enable research teams and ministries to integrate climate information into social and economic drivers of vulnerability and opportunities for adaptation to climate change 3) Inform better policies and programs for climate change adaptation. This oral presentation will demonstrate how IRI, CUNY, and JPL developed new products, tools and capacity building to achieve the three objectives mentioned above with examples in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Malawi.

  5. Storm surges in the Mediterranean Sea: Variability and trends under future climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Androulidakis, Yannis S.; Kombiadou, Katerina D.; Makris, Christos V.; Baltikas, Vassilis N.; Krestenitis, Yannis N.

    2015-09-01

    The trends of storm surge extremes in the Mediterranean Sea for a period of 150 years (1951-2100) are explored, using a high-resolution storm surge model. Numerical simulations are forced by the output of regional climate simulations with RegCM3, which uses IPCC's historical data on greenhouse gasses emissions for the (past) period 1951-2000, and IPCC's A1B climate scenario for the (future) period 2001-2100. Comparisons between observations and modeling results show good agreement and confirm the ability of our model to estimate the response of the sea surface to future climatic conditions. We investigate the future trends, the variability and frequency of local extremes and the main forcing mechanisms that can induce strong surges in the Mediterranean region. Our results support that there is a general decreasing trend in storminess under the considered climate scenario, mostly related to the frequency of local peaks and the duration and spatial coverage of the storm surges. The northward shift in the location of storm tracks is a possible reason for this storminess attenuation, especially over areas where the main driving factor of extreme events is the inverted barometer effect. However, the magnitudes of sea surface elevation extremes may increase in several Mediterranean sub-regions, i.e., Southern Adriatic, Balearic and Tyrrhenian Seas, during the 21st century. There are clear distinctions in the contributions of winds and pressure fields to the sea level height for various regions of the Mediterranean Sea, as well as on the seasonal variability of extreme values; the Aegean and Adriatic Seas are characteristic examples, where high surges are predicted to be mainly induced by low pressure systems and favorable winds, respectively.

  6. Regional climate response to land surface changes after harvest in the North China Plain under present and possible future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cho, Mee-Hyun; Boo, Kyung-On; Lee, Johan; Cho, Chunho; Lim, Gyu-Ho

    2014-04-01

    In this study, we investigated the impacts of land use alterations from harvesting practices on the regional surface climate over the North China Plain. The surface climate responses after harvest in June in regions where double-cropping is practiced were evaluated using observations and model simulations with the global climate model HadGEM2-Atmosphere. Responses were modeled under both present and possible future climate conditions. In the model, double-cropping was represented using the monthly varying fraction of vegetation. This contributed to an improvement in the model simulation over East Asia. Modeling results showed that the land surface was warmer and drier after harvest, and these simulation results were consistent with observations. The bare soil surface after harvest in June had biophysical impacts on the surface climate that were mediated by decreasing evapotranspiration and latent heat flux effects, which increased surface air temperatures and decreased surface humidity. An increase in shortwave radiation also contributed to the rise in temperatures. Under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios for possible future climate conditions, land conversion induced additional warming in addition to greenhouse gases induced global warming. The RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 scenarios demonstrated a warming of 1.0°C and 1.4°C due to harvesting practices in June, respectively. The response magnitude was affected by the climate conditions in each RCP. Our results suggest that potential impacts of harvest on the local climate need to be considered in future projections of CO2-induced warming on a regional scale.

  7. Simulation of Deep Water Renewal in Crater Lake, Oregon, USA under Current and Future Climate Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piccolroaz, S.; Wood, T. M.; Wherry, S.; Girdner, S.

    2015-12-01

    We applied a 1-dimensional lake model developed to simulate deep mixing related to thermobaric instabilities in temperate lakes to Crater Lake, a 590-m deep caldera lake in Oregon's Cascade Range known for its stunning deep blue color and extremely clear water, in order to determine the frequency of deep water renewal in future climate conditions. The lake model was calibrated with 6 years of water temperature profiles, and then simulated 10 years of validation data with an RMSE ranging from 0.81°C at 50 m depth to 0.04°C at 350-460 m depth. The simulated time series of heat content in the deep lake accurately captured extreme years characterized by weak and strong deep water renewal. The lake model uses wind speed and lake surface temperature (LST) as boundary conditions. LST projections under six climate scenarios from the CMIP5 intermodel comparison project (2 representative concentration pathways X 3 general circulation models) were evaluated with air2water, a simple lumped model that only requires daily values of downscaled air temperature. air2water was calibrated with data from 1993-2011, resulting in a RMSE between simulated and observed daily LST values of 0.68°C. All future climate scenarios project increased water temperature throughout the water column and a substantive reduction in the frequency of deepwater renewal events. The least extreme scenario (CNRM-CM5, RCP4.5) projects the frequency of deepwater renewal events to decrease from about 1 in 2 years in the present to about 1 in 3 years by 2100. The most extreme scenario (HadGEM2-ES, RCP8.5) projects the frequency of deepwater renewal events to be less than 1 in 7 years by 2100 and lake surface temperatures never cooling to less than 4°C after 2050. In all RCP4.5 simulations the temperature of the entire water column is greater than 4°C for increasing periods of time. In the RCP8.5 simulations, the temperature of the entire water column is greater than 4°C year round by the year 2060 (HadGEM2

  8. Carryover effects and climatic conditions influence the postfledging survival of greater sage-grouse

    PubMed Central

    Blomberg, Erik J; Sedinger, James S; Gibson, Daniel; Coates, Peter S; Casazza, Michael L

    2014-01-01

    Prebreeding survival is an important life history component that affects both parental fitness and population persistence. In birds, prebreeding can be separated into pre- and postfledging periods; carryover effects from the prefledging period may influence postfledging survival. We investigated effects of body condition at fledging, and climatic variation, on postfledging survival of radio-marked greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Great Basin Desert of the western United States. We hypothesized that body condition would influence postfledging survival as a carryover effect from the prefledging period, and we predicted that climatic variation may mediate this carryover effect or, alternatively, would act directly on survival during the postfledging period. Individual body condition had a strong positive effect on postfledging survival of juvenile females, suggesting carryover effects from the prefledging period. Females in the upper 25th percentile of body condition scores had a postfledging survival probability more than twice that (Φ = 0.51 ± 0.06 SE) of females in the bottom 25th percentile (Φ = 0.21 ± 0.05 SE). A similar effect could not be detected for males. We also found evidence for temperature and precipitation effects on monthly survival rates of both sexes. After controlling for site-level variation, postfledging survival was nearly twice as great following the coolest and wettest growing season (Φ = 0.77 ± 0.05 SE) compared with the hottest and driest growing season (Φ = 0.39 ± 0.05 SE). We found no relationships between individual body condition and temperature or precipitation, suggesting that carryover effects operated independently of background climatic variation. The temperature and precipitation effects we observed likely produced a direct effect on mortality risk during the postfledging period. Conservation actions that focus on improving prefledging habitat for sage-grouse may have indirect benefits

  9. Carryover effects and climatic conditions influence the postfledging survival of greater sage-grouse

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Blomberg, Erik J.; Sedinger, James S.; Gibson, Daniel; Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2014-01-01

    Prebreeding survival is an important life history component that affects both parental fitness and population persistence. In birds, prebreeding can be separated into pre- and postfledging periods; carryover effects from the prefledging period may influence postfledging survival. We investigated effects of body condition at fledging, and climatic variation, on postfledging survival of radio-marked greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Great Basin Desert of the western United States. We hypothesized that body condition would influence postfledging survival as a carryover effect from the prefledging period, and we predicted that climatic variation may mediate this carryover effect or, alternatively, would act directly on survival during the postfledging period. Individual body condition had a strong positive effect on postfledging survival of juvenile females, suggesting carryover effects from the prefledging period. Females in the upper 25th percentile of body condition scores had a postfledging survival probability more than twice that (Φ = 0.51 ± 0.06 SE) of females in the bottom 25th percentile (Φ = 0.21 ± 0.05 SE). A similar effect could not be detected for males. We also found evidence for temperature and precipitation effects on monthly survival rates of both sexes. After controlling for site-level variation, postfledging survival was nearly twice as great following the coolest and wettest growing season (Φ = 0.77 ± 0.05 SE) compared with the hottest and driest growing season (Φ = 0.39 ± 0.05 SE). We found no relationships between individual body condition and temperature or precipitation, suggesting that carryover effects operated independently of background climatic variation. The temperature and precipitation effects we observed likely produced a direct effect on mortality risk during the postfledging period. Conservation actions that focus on improving prefledging habitat for sage-grouse may have indirect benefits

  10. Carryover effects and climatic conditions influence the postfledging survival of greater sage-grouse.

    PubMed

    Blomberg, Erik J; Sedinger, James S; Gibson, Daniel; Coates, Peter S; Casazza, Michael L

    2014-12-01

    Prebreeding survival is an important life history component that affects both parental fitness and population persistence. In birds, prebreeding can be separated into pre- and postfledging periods; carryover effects from the prefledging period may influence postfledging survival. We investigated effects of body condition at fledging, and climatic variation, on postfledging survival of radio-marked greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Great Basin Desert of the western United States. We hypothesized that body condition would influence postfledging survival as a carryover effect from the prefledging period, and we predicted that climatic variation may mediate this carryover effect or, alternatively, would act directly on survival during the postfledging period. Individual body condition had a strong positive effect on postfledging survival of juvenile females, suggesting carryover effects from the prefledging period. Females in the upper 25th percentile of body condition scores had a postfledging survival probability more than twice that (Φ = 0.51 ± 0.06 SE) of females in the bottom 25th percentile (Φ = 0.21 ± 0.05 SE). A similar effect could not be detected for males. We also found evidence for temperature and precipitation effects on monthly survival rates of both sexes. After controlling for site-level variation, postfledging survival was nearly twice as great following the coolest and wettest growing season (Φ = 0.77 ± 0.05 SE) compared with the hottest and driest growing season (Φ = 0.39 ± 0.05 SE). We found no relationships between individual body condition and temperature or precipitation, suggesting that carryover effects operated independently of background climatic variation. The temperature and precipitation effects we observed likely produced a direct effect on mortality risk during the postfledging period. Conservation actions that focus on improving prefledging habitat for sage-grouse may have indirect benefits

  11. Climatic conditions and herbivory effects on morphological plasticity of Argania spinosa.

    PubMed

    Ain-Lhout, Fatima; Zunzunegui, María; Díaz Barradas, Mari Cruz; Jáuregui, Juan; Tagma, Tarik; Boutaleb, Said

    2013-01-01

    The main objective of this paper was to look into the morphological differentiation patterns and phenotypic plasticity in four populations of Argania spinosa with environmentally contrasted conditions. Mean response, magnitude and pattern of morphological intra- and inter-population plasticity indexes were measured and analyzed in order to identify which characters contribute the most to the acclimation of this species. Populations growing in the ecological optimum of the species presented the lowest plasticity, while those growing in the most stressed habitats showed an increased morphological variability. The study of four populations showed that human pressure seems to play an important function in the regulation of morphological characters. However, climatic conditions seem to play a significant role in the increase of morphological plasticity. PMID:23472448

  12. Climatic conditions and herbivory effects on morphological plasticity of Argania spinosa.

    PubMed

    Ain-Lhout, Fatima; Zunzunegui, María; Díaz Barradas, Mari Cruz; Jáuregui, Juan; Tagma, Tarik; Boutaleb, Said

    2013-01-01

    The main objective of this paper was to look into the morphological differentiation patterns and phenotypic plasticity in four populations of Argania spinosa with environmentally contrasted conditions. Mean response, magnitude and pattern of morphological intra- and inter-population plasticity indexes were measured and analyzed in order to identify which characters contribute the most to the acclimation of this species. Populations growing in the ecological optimum of the species presented the lowest plasticity, while those growing in the most stressed habitats showed an increased morphological variability. The study of four populations showed that human pressure seems to play an important function in the regulation of morphological characters. However, climatic conditions seem to play a significant role in the increase of morphological plasticity.

  13. How does irrigation modulate regional climate under wet and dry conditions?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pei, L.; Moore, N. J.; Zhong, S. S.; Kendall, A. D.; Hyndman, D. W.

    2015-12-01

    Nationwide, the impacts of irrigation on summer (June-July-August) weather over the United States are examined for a pair of unusually wet (2010) and dry (2012) years using an integrated regional climate-irrigation modeling system based on the WRF-Noah-Mosaic framework. A novel irrigation scheme was developed for WRF to mimic center pivot irrigation practices for farmlands across the U.S., over areas defined using MODIS-based irrigation extent data. Results show that this new irrigation approach can dynamically generate irrigation water amounts that are in good agreement with the observed irrigation water use estimates across the High Plains, a region where the prescribed parameters in the irrigation scheme best match actual irrigation practice. Synoptic conditions are significantly altered by the simulated irrigation under both wet and dry conditions, but in different patterns. For the dry summer, irrigation helps strengthen the dominant continental high pressure system in the central U.S. and favors the downwind transport of moisture generated over irrigated lands, contributing to increased downwind rainfall. For the wet summer, the cyclonic vortex system is deepened by irrigation in the central U.S. along the Great Plains low-level jet corridor, enhancing rainfall locally over the heavily irrigated lands. In both cases, introducing irrigation into the model reduced overall mean biases and root-mean-square errors in the simulated daily precipitation over the entire United States. This highlights the importance of integrating anthropogenic influences on the land surface in regional climate modeling.

  14. The effect of water hyacinths for wastewater treatment under Cuban climatic conditions.

    PubMed

    Rodriguez, C; Jenssen, P D

    2005-01-01

    The purification capacity of systems using floating aquatic plants depend on the climatic conditions under which they are used. This study from Cuban conditions evaluate the effects of the organic loading rate, hydraulic loading rate and water depth on the purification capacity of water hyacinths, as well as the effect of some climatic variables on the kinetics of the treatment processes. The experimental system consisted of two consecutive tanks simulating a system of ponds in series. The water depths used were 0.5 m and 1.12 m. In the shallower system with shorter retention times and greater superficial organic loading higher removal efficiencies are obtained. With the data obtained, empirical relations were sought. From these correlations it is possible to determine the values for some parameters used in the design of aquatic treatment systems with water hyacinths. The results revealed a relationship between the purification capacity of the water hyacinth and its velocity of growth. The specific velocity of growth varied with the months of the year and was associated with the temperature and the solar radiation. A multiple correlation equation describing these relations was obtained. PMID:16114695

  15. Climate and Population Health Vulnerabilities to Vector-Borne Diseases: Increasing Resilience Under Climate Change Conditions in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ceccato, P.; McDonald, K. C.; Podest, E.; De La Torre Juarez, M.; Kruczkiewicz, A.; Lessel, J.; Jensen, K.; Thomson, M. C.

    2014-12-01

    The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the City University of New York (CUNY) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in collaboration with NASA SERVIR are developing tools to monitor climate variables (precipitation, temperature, vegetation, water bodies, inundation) that help projects in Africa to increase resilience to climate change for vector-borne diseases (i.e. malaria, trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, and schistosomiasis). Through the development of new products to monitor precipitation, water bodies and inundation, IRI, CUNY and JPL provide tools and capacity building to research communities, ministries of health and World Health Organization in Africa to: 1) Develop research teams' ability to appropriately use climate data as part of their research 2) Enable research teams and ministries to integrate climate information into social and economic drivers of vulnerability and opportunities for adaptation to climate change 3) Inform better policies and programs for climate change adaptation. This oral presentation will demonstrate how IRI, CUNY, and JPL developed new products, tools and capacity building to achieve the three objectives mentioned above.

  16. Dissipation of El Niño-like climate conditions through Andean uplift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, R.; Poulsen, C. J.

    2013-12-01

    Marine proxies of sea-surface temperature (SST) and thermocline depth have been used to infer an El Niño-like climate state during the Pliocene warm period (~4.5 to 3 Ma ago) consisting of a reduced tropical Pacific SST gradient and deeper thermocline depth in the eastern tropical Pacific. El Niño-like conditions dissipated around ~3 Ma, inaugurating the modern tropical climate. More recent studies extend the Pacific record of northeastern equatorial upwelling to the late Miocene (~13 Ma) and suggest long-term strengthening of the upwelling and shoaling of the thermocline since then. Shoaling is thought to have terminated the El Niño-like climate state by cooling eastern equatorial SSTs and activating the Bjerknes feedback. Late Cenozoic cooling is often proposed as the cause of thermocline shoaling. However, corroborating evidence is still needed given that CO2 levels are thought to have been fairly uniform between 12-5 Ma, and that coupled ocean-atmosphere models simulate a shallow eastern equatorial thermocline even under early Pliocene warmth. Here we propose an alternative cause for SST cooling at eastern tropical Pacific--Late Cenozoic uplift of the Andes. Although the timing and stages of the uplift of the Andes are uncertain, geological evidence suggests significant surface uplift on the order of 2 km since the late Miocene. The sensitivity of the equatorial Pacific climate to Andean uplift is explored using the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). In our simulations, the ~2.5 km uplift of central Andes leads to reduction in eastern tropical Pacific SST by 1-2 °C and strengthening of the southeastern Pacific subtropical high and equatorial Easterlies, producing a pattern representative of a La Niña-like state. In addition, the thermocline shoals in the northeastern equatorial Pacific, in agreement with late Miocene marine records. Air-sea interactions are identified as the primary cause of this climate shift because: i) the thermocline adjusts

  17. Sensitivity of soil moisture initialization for decadal predictions under different regional climatic conditions in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khodayar, S.; Sehlinger, A.; Feldmann, H.; Kottmeier, C.

    2015-12-01

    The impact of soil initialization is investigated through perturbation simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. The focus of the investigation is to assess the sensitivity of simulated extreme periods, dry and wet, to soil moisture initialization in different climatic regions over Europe and to establish the necessary spin up time within the framework of decadal predictions for these regions. Sensitivity experiments consisted of a reference simulation from 1968 to 1999 and 5 simulations from 1972 to 1983. The Effective Drought Index (EDI) is used to select and quantify drought status in the reference run to establish the simulation time period for the sensitivity experiments. Different soil initialization procedures are investigated. The sensitivity of the decadal predictions to soil moisture initial conditions is investigated through the analysis of water cycle components' (WCC) variability. In an episodic time scale the local effects of soil moisture on the boundary-layer and the propagated effects on the large-scale dynamics are analysed. The results show: (a) COSMO-CLM reproduces the observed features of the drought index. (b) Soil moisture initialization exerts a relevant impact on WCC, e.g., precipitation distribution and intensity. (c) Regional characteristics strongly impact the response of the WCC. Precipitation and evapotranspiration deviations are larger for humid regions. (d) The initial soil conditions (wet/dry), the regional characteristics (humid/dry) and the annual period (wet/dry) play a key role in the time that soil needs to restore quasi-equilibrium and the impact on the atmospheric conditions. Humid areas, and for all regions, a humid initialization, exhibit shorter spin up times, also soil reacts more sensitive when initialised during dry periods. (e) The initial soil perturbation may markedly modify atmospheric pressure field, wind circulation systems and atmospheric water vapour distribution affecting atmospheric stability

  18. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Turner, J.P.; Hasfurther, V.

    1992-05-04

    The scope of the research program and the continuation is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large scale research sufficient to describe commercial scale embankment behavior. The large scale approach was accomplished by establishing five lysimeters, each 7.3 [times] 3.0 [times] 3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process. Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by Rio Blanco Oil Shale Co., Inc. (RBOSC) through a separate cooperative agreement with the University of Wyoming (UW) to carry out this study. Three of the lysimeters were established at the RBOSC Tract C-a in the Piceance Basin of Colorado. Two lysimeters were established in the Environmental Simulation Laboratory (ESL) at UW. The ESL was specifically designed and constructed so that a large range of climatic conditions could be physically applied to the processed oil shale which was filled in the lysimeter cells.

  19. The Milankovitch theory and climate sensitivity. I - Equilibrium climate model solutions for the present surface conditions. II - Interaction between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the climate system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Neeman, Binyamin U.; Ohring, George; Joseph, Joachim H.

    1988-01-01

    A seasonal climate model was developed to test the climate sensitivity and, in particular, the Milankovitch (1941) theory. Four climate model versions were implemented to investigate the range of uncertainty in the parameterizations of three basic feedback mechanisms: the ice albedo-temperature, the outgoing long-wave radiation-temperature, and the eddy transport-meridional temperature gradient. It was found that the differences between the simulation of the present climate by the four versions were generally small, especially for annually averaged results. The climate model was also used to study the effect of growing/shrinking of a continental ice sheet, bedrock sinking/uplifting, and sea level changes on the climate system, taking also into account the feedback effects on the climate of the building of the ice caps.

  20. Modeling Floods under Climate Change Condition in Otava River, Czech Republic: A Time Scale Issue

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Danhelka, J.; Krejci, J.; Vlasak, T.

    2009-04-01

    simulation differed by 10 to 36 % for different simulated scenarios including RC conditions. That supports the requirement of specific approach if assessing occurrence of rare events of return period longer than simulated period. REFERENCES Pretel, J. et al. (2008): Operating statement on Research Project: SP/1a6/108/07 - Precission of Current Estimates of Climate Change Impact on Water, Agriculture and Forestry and Adaptation Proposals, CHMI, Prague, Czech Republic, 2008 Semenov, M. A. (2008). Simulation of extreme weather events by a stochastic weather generator, Clim Res, 11:203-212

  1. About climate variabilitiy leading the hydric condition of the soil in the rainfed region of Argentina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pántano, V. C.; Penalba, O. C.

    2013-05-01

    Extreme events of temperature and rainfall have a socio-economic impact in the rainfed agriculture production region in Argentina. The magnitude of the impact can be analyzed through the water balance which integrates the characteristics of the soil and climate conditions. Changes observed in climate variables during the last decades affected the components of the water balance. As a result, a displacement of the agriculture border towards the west was produced, improving the agricultural production of the region. The objective of this work is to analyze how the variability of rainfall and temperature leads the hydric condition of the soil, with special focus on extreme events. The hydric conditions of the soil (HC= Excess- Deficit) were estimated from the monthly water balance (Thornthwaite and Mather method, 1957), using monthly potential evapotranspiration (PET) and monthly accumulated rainfall (R) for 33 stations (period 1970-2006). Information of temperature and rainfall was provided by National Weather Service and the effective capacity of soil water was considered from Forte Lay and Spescha (2001). An agricultural extreme condition occurs when soil moisture and rainfall are inadequate or excessive for the development of the crops. In this study, we define an extreme event when the variable is less (greater) than its 20% and 10% (80% and 90%) percentile. In order to evaluate how sensitive is the HC to water and heat stress in the region, different conditional probabilities were evaluated. There is a weaker response of HC to extreme low PET while extreme low R leads high values of HC. However, this behavior is not always observed, especially in the western region where extreme high and low PET show a stronger influence over the HC. Finally, to analyze the temporal variability of extreme PET and R, leading hydric condition of the soil, the number of stations presenting extreme conditions was computed for each month. As an example, interesting results were

  2. Children's well-being at schools: Impact of climatic conditions and air pollution.

    PubMed

    Salthammer, Tunga; Uhde, Erik; Schripp, Tobias; Schieweck, Alexandra; Morawska, Lidia; Mazaheri, Mandana; Clifford, Sam; He, Congrong; Buonanno, Giorgio; Querol, Xavier; Viana, Mar; Kumar, Prashant

    2016-09-01

    Human civilization is currently facing two particular challenges: population growth with a strong trend towards urbanization and climate change. The latter is now no longer seriously questioned. The primary concern is to limit anthropogenic climate change and to adapt our societies to its effects. Schools are a key part of the structure of our societies. If future generations are to take control of the manifold global problems, we have to offer our children the best possible infrastructure for their education: not only in terms of the didactic concepts, but also with regard to the climatic conditions in the school environment. Between the ages of 6 and 19, children spend up to 8h a day in classrooms. The conditions are, however, often inacceptable and regardless of the geographic situation, all the current studies report similar problems: classrooms being too small for the high number of school children, poor ventilation concepts, considerable outdoor air pollution and strong sources of indoor air pollution. There have been discussions about a beneficial and healthy air quality in classrooms for many years now and in recent years extensive studies have been carried out worldwide. The problems have been clearly outlined on a scientific level and there are prudent and feasible concepts to improve the situation. The growing number of publications also highlights the importance of this subject. High carbon dioxide concentrations in classrooms, which indicate poor ventilation conditions, and the increasing particle matter in urban outdoor air have, in particular, been identified as primary causes of poor indoor air quality in schools. Despite this, the conditions in most schools continue to be in need of improvement. There are many reasons for this. In some cases, the local administrative bodies do not have the budgets required to address such concerns, in other cases regulations and laws stand in contradiction to the demands for better indoor air quality, and sometimes

  3. Children's well-being at schools: Impact of climatic conditions and air pollution.

    PubMed

    Salthammer, Tunga; Uhde, Erik; Schripp, Tobias; Schieweck, Alexandra; Morawska, Lidia; Mazaheri, Mandana; Clifford, Sam; He, Congrong; Buonanno, Giorgio; Querol, Xavier; Viana, Mar; Kumar, Prashant

    2016-09-01

    Human civilization is currently facing two particular challenges: population growth with a strong trend towards urbanization and climate change. The latter is now no longer seriously questioned. The primary concern is to limit anthropogenic climate change and to adapt our societies to its effects. Schools are a key part of the structure of our societies. If future generations are to take control of the manifold global problems, we have to offer our children the best possible infrastructure for their education: not only in terms of the didactic concepts, but also with regard to the climatic conditions in the school environment. Between the ages of 6 and 19, children spend up to 8h a day in classrooms. The conditions are, however, often inacceptable and regardless of the geographic situation, all the current studies report similar problems: classrooms being too small for the high number of school children, poor ventilation concepts, considerable outdoor air pollution and strong sources of indoor air pollution. There have been discussions about a beneficial and healthy air quality in classrooms for many years now and in recent years extensive studies have been carried out worldwide. The problems have been clearly outlined on a scientific level and there are prudent and feasible concepts to improve the situation. The growing number of publications also highlights the importance of this subject. High carbon dioxide concentrations in classrooms, which indicate poor ventilation conditions, and the increasing particle matter in urban outdoor air have, in particular, been identified as primary causes of poor indoor air quality in schools. Despite this, the conditions in most schools continue to be in need of improvement. There are many reasons for this. In some cases, the local administrative bodies do not have the budgets required to address such concerns, in other cases regulations and laws stand in contradiction to the demands for better indoor air quality, and sometimes

  4. Global agricultural land resources--a high resolution suitability evaluation and its perspectives until 2100 under climate change conditions.

    PubMed

    Zabel, Florian; Putzenlechner, Birgitta; Mauser, Wolfram

    2014-01-01

    Changing natural conditions determine the land's suitability for agriculture. The growing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land and causes trade-offs between different uses of land and ecosystem services. Accordingly, an inventory is required on the changing potentially suitable areas for agriculture under changing climate conditions. We applied a fuzzy logic approach to compute global agricultural suitability to grow the 16 most important food and energy crops according to the climatic, soil and topographic conditions at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. We present our results for current climate conditions (1981-2010), considering today's irrigated areas and separately investigate the suitability of densely forested as well as protected areas, in order to investigate their potentials for agriculture. The impact of climate change under SRES A1B conditions, as simulated by the global climate model ECHAM5, on agricultural suitability is shown by comparing the time-period 2071-2100 with 1981-2010. Our results show that climate change will expand suitable cropland by additionally 5.6 million km2, particularly in the Northern high latitudes (mainly in Canada, China and Russia). Most sensitive regions with decreasing suitability are found in the Global South, mainly in tropical regions, where also the suitability for multiple cropping decreases.

  5. Global Agricultural Land Resources – A High Resolution Suitability Evaluation and Its Perspectives until 2100 under Climate Change Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Zabel, Florian; Putzenlechner, Birgitta; Mauser, Wolfram

    2014-01-01

    Changing natural conditions determine the land's suitability for agriculture. The growing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land and causes trade-offs between different uses of land and ecosystem services. Accordingly, an inventory is required on the changing potentially suitable areas for agriculture under changing climate conditions. We applied a fuzzy logic approach to compute global agricultural suitability to grow the 16 most important food and energy crops according to the climatic, soil and topographic conditions at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. We present our results for current climate conditions (1981–2010), considering today's irrigated areas and separately investigate the suitability of densely forested as well as protected areas, in order to investigate their potentials for agriculture. The impact of climate change under SRES A1B conditions, as simulated by the global climate model ECHAM5, on agricultural suitability is shown by comparing the time-period 2071–2100 with 1981–2010. Our results show that climate change will expand suitable cropland by additionally 5.6 million km2, particularly in the Northern high latitudes (mainly in Canada, China and Russia). Most sensitive regions with decreasing suitability are found in the Global South, mainly in tropical regions, where also the suitability for multiple cropping decreases. PMID:25229634

  6. Effect modification of the association between meteorological variables and mortality by urban climatic conditions in the tropical city of Kaohsiung, Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Goggins, William B; Ren, Chao; Ng, Edward; Yang, Chunyuh; Chan, Emily Y Y

    2013-11-01

    A deeper understanding of extreme hot weather are needed in cities sensitive to heat effects, an investigation was done in the tropical town of Kaohsiung in Taiwan. Its 11 districts were divided into three climatic classes varying from high urban heat, low levels of green space and lack of proximity to water bodies to low urban heat, adequate green space and proximity to water bodies. Daily data on natural mortality, meteorological variables, and pollutants from May-October 1999-2008 were analysed using generalised additive models for the time-series data. Subgroup analyses were conducted, stratifying decedents according to the level of planning activity required in order to mitigate adverse heat effects in their residential areas, classifying districts as "level 1" for those requiring a high level of mitigation action; "level 2" for those requiring some action; and "level 3" for those that need only preserve existing conditions. Stratified analyses showed that mortality increases per 1 °C rise on average, either on the same day or in the previous 4 days (lags 0-4), were associated with 2.8%, 2.3% and -1.3% for level 1, 2 and 3 districts, respectively. The slope describing the association between temperature and mortality was higher above 29.0 °C resulting in corresponding increases of 4.2%, 5.0% and 0.3% per per 1 °C rise in temperature, respectively. Other meteorological variables were not significantly associated with mortality. It is concluded that hot season mortality in Kaohsiung is only sensitive to heat effects in districts classified as having unfavourably climatic conditions and requiring mitigation efforts in city planning. Urban planning measures designed to improve climatic conditions could reduce excess mortality resulting from extreme hot weather.

  7. Window of Opportunity: The Climatic Conditions of the Lewis and Clark Expedition of 1804 1806.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knapp, Paul A.

    2004-09-01

    Lewis and Clark's entry into to the American West in search of an inland Northwest Passage is considered among the greatest expeditions in American history. The Corps of Discovery were also lucky as their travels west of the 100th meridian occurred during a “window” of generally favorable climatic conditions. Use of reconstructed summer Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) values from 1700 1978 indicate that drought frequency at locations along the Lewis and Clark trail ranged from 4 to 12 yr and that the probability of encountering a drought either on the outbound or return trip approached 50% at some locations. Exact date comparisons of meteorological conditions during periods of extended encampment (i.e., 1 5 months) between 1804 06 with long-term records of nearby weather stations indicate that the Corps of Discovery avoided drought and traveled during a cooler and/or substantially wetter period than historical averages. Examination of reconstructed Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) values suggest wetter conditions prevailed in 1804 06 because of the co-occurrence of La Niña conditions during a cold PDO phase. Although the Corps of Discovery suffered hardships because of the wetter conditions, they avoided the more serious consequences of severe droughts that occurred in 1800 and 1808. Drought conditions along the semiarid and arid portions of the trail would have reduced forage yield for the game that were their principal source of food and increased their chances for starvation. Additionally, lower streamflow conditions along their principal navigation routes would have required greater effort and time to haul their supplies to the Continental Divide, perhaps delaying their expedition by a year.

  8. CLIMATE CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE WITHIN-PLANT SPREAD OF BROAD MITES ON AZALEA.

    PubMed

    Mechant, E; Pauwels, E; Gobin, B

    2014-01-01

    The broad mite Polyphagotarsonemus latus (Banks) is considered a major pest in potted azalea, Flanders' flagship ornamental crop of Rhododendron simsii hybrids. In addition to severe economic damage, the broad mite is dreaded for its increasing resistance to acaricides. Due to restrictions in the use of broad spectrum acaricides, Belgian azalea growers are left with only three compounds, belonging to two mode of action groups and restricted in their number of applications, for broad mite control: abamectin, milbemectin and pyrethrin. Although P. latus can be controlled with predatory mites, the high cost of this system makes it (not yet) feasible for integration into standard azalea pest management systems. Hence, a maximum efficacy of treatments with available compounds is essential. Because abamectin, milbemectin and pyrethrin are contact acaricides with limited trans laminar flow, only broad mites located on shoot tips of azalea plants will be controlled after spraying. Consequently, the efficacy of chemical treatments is influenced by the location and spread of P. latus on the plant. Unfortunately, little is known on broad mites' within-plant spread or how it is affected by climatic conditions like temperature and relative humidity. Therefore, experiments were set up to verify whether climate conditions have an effect on the location and migration of broad mites on azalea. Broad mite infected azalea plants were placed in standard growth chambers under different temperature (T:2.5-25°C) and relative humidity (RH:55-80%) treatments. Within-plant spread was determined by counting mites on the shoot tips and inner leaves of azalea plants. Results indicate that temperature and relative humidity have no significant effect on the within-plant spread of P. latus. To formulate recommendations for optimal spray conditions to maximize the efficacy of broad mite control with acaricides, further experiments on the effect of light intensity and rain are scheduled.

  9. Regional Arctic sea ice variations as predictor for winter climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koenigk, Torben; Caian, Mihaela; Nikulin, Grigory; Schimanke, Semjon

    2016-01-01

    Seasonal prediction skill of winter mid and high northern latitudes climate from sea ice variations in eight different Arctic regions is analyzed using detrended ERA-interim data and satellite sea ice data for the period 1980-2013. We find significant correlations between ice areas in both September and November and winter sea level pressure, air temperature and precipitation. The prediction skill is improved when using November sea ice conditions as predictor compared to September. This is particularly true for predicting winter NAO-like patterns and blocking situations in the Euro-Atlantic area. We find that sea ice variations in Barents Sea seem to be most important for the sign of the following winter NAO—negative after low ice—but amplitude and extension of the patterns are modulated by Greenland and Labrador Seas ice areas. November ice variability in the Greenland Sea provides the best prediction skill for central and western European temperature and ice variations in the Laptev/East Siberian Seas have the largest impact on the blocking number in the Euro-Atlantic region. Over North America, prediction skill is largest using September ice areas from the Pacific Arctic sector as predictor. Composite analyses of high and low regional autumn ice conditions reveal that the atmospheric response is not entirely linear suggesting changing predictive skill dependent on sign and amplitude of the anomaly. The results confirm the importance of realistic sea ice initial conditions for seasonal forecasts. However, correlations do seldom exceed 0.6 indicating that Arctic sea ice variations can only explain a part of winter climate variations in northern mid and high latitudes.

  10. Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately under climate change conditions?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chuine, Isabelle; Bonhomme, Marc; Legave, Jean Michel; García de Cortázar-Atauri, Inaki; Charrier, Guillaume; Lacointe, André; Améglio, Thierry

    2014-05-01

    The onset of the growing season of trees has been globally earlier by 2.3 days/decade during the last 50 years because of global warming and this trend is predicted to continue according to climate forecast. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is however not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud dormancy, and on the other hand higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cells growth afterwards. Increasing phenological changes in temperate woody species have strong impacts on forest trees distribution and productivity, as well as crops cultivation areas. Accurate predictions of trees phenology are therefore a prerequisite to understand and foresee the impacts of climate change on forests and agrosystems. Different process-based models have been developed in the last two decades to predict the date of budburst or flowering of woody species. They are two main families: (1) one-phase models which consider only the ecodormancy phase and make the assumption that endodormancy is always broken before adequate climatic conditions for cell growth occur; and (2) two-phase models which consider both the endodormancy and ecodormancy phases and predict a date of dormancy break which varies from year to year. So far, one-phase models have been able to predict accurately tree bud break and flowering under historical climate. However, because they do not consider what happens prior to ecodormancy, and especially the possible negative effect of winter temperature warming on dormancy break, it seems unlikely that they can provide accurate predictions in future climate conditions. It is indeed well known that a lack of low temperature results in abnormal pattern of bud break and development in temperate fruit trees. An accurate modelling of the dormancy break date has thus become a major issue in phenology modelling. Two-phases phenological models predict that global warming should delay

  11. Assessing the impacts of climate change in Mediterranean catchments under conditions of data scarcity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meyer, Swen; Ludwig, Ralf

    2013-04-01

    According to current climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. While there is scientific consensus that climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean regions are presently occurring and are projected to amplify in the future, very little knowledge is available about the quantification of these changes, which is hampered by a lack of suitable and cost effective hydrological monitoring and modeling systems. The European FP7-project CLIMB is aiming to analyze climate induced changes on the hydrology of the Mediterranean Basins by investigating 7 test sites located in the countries Italy, France, Turkey, Tunisia, Gaza and Egypt. CLIMB employs a combination of novel geophysical field monitoring concepts, remote sensing techniques and integrated hydrologic modeling to improve process descriptions and understanding and to quantify existing uncertainties in climate change impact analysis. The Rio Mannu Basin, located in Sardinia; Italy, is one test site of the CLIMB project. The catchment has a size of 472.5 km2, it ranges from 62 to 946 meters in elevation, at mean annual temperatures of 16°C and precipitation of about 700 mm, the annual runoff volume is about 200 mm. The physically based Water Simulation Model WaSiM Vers. 2 (Schulla & Jasper (1999)) was setup to model current and projected future hydrological conditions. The availability of measured meteorological and hydrological data is poor as common to many Mediterranean catchments. The lack of available measured input data hampers the calibration of the model setup and the validation of model outputs. State of the art remote sensing techniques and field measuring techniques were applied to improve the quality of hydrological input parameters. In a field campaign about 250 soil samples were collected and lab-analyzed. Different geostatistical regionalization methods were tested to improve the

  12. Remote sensing of interannual boreal forest NDVI in relation to climatic conditions in interior Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verbyla, David

    2015-12-01

    Climate has warmed substantially in interior Alaska and several remote sensing studies have documented a decadal-scale decline in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) termed a ‘browning trend’. Reduced summer soil moisture due to changing climatic factors such as earlier springs, less snowpack, and summer drought may reduce boreal productivity and NDVI. However, the relative importance of these climatic factors is poorly understood in boreal interior Alaska. In this study, I used the remotely sensed peak summer NDVI as an index of boreal productivity at 250 m pixel size from 2000 to 2014. Maximum summer NDVI was related to last day of spring snow, early spring snow water equivalent (SWE), and a summer moisture index. There was no significant correlation between early spring SWE and peak summer NDVI. There was a significant correlation between the last day of spring snow and peak summer NDVI, but only for a few higher elevation stations. This was likely due to snowmelt occurring later at higher elevations, thus having a greater effect on summer soil moisture relative to lower elevation sites. For most of boreal interior Alaska, summer drought was likely the dominant control on peak summer NDVI and this effect may persist for several years. Peak summer NDVI declined at all 26 stations after the 2004 drought, and the decline persisted for 2 years at all stations. Due to the shallow rooting zone of most boreal plants, even cool and moist sites at lower elevations are likely vulnerable to drought. For example the peak summer NDVI response following the 2004 drought was similar for adjacent cold and warm watershed basins. Thus, if frequent and severe summer droughts continue, moisture stress effects are likely to be widespread and prolonged throughout most of interior boreal Alaska, including relatively cool, moist sites regardless of spring snowpack conditions or spring phenology.

  13. Seasonal Prediction of Hydro-Climatic Extremes in the Greater Horn of Africa Under Evolving Climate Conditions to Support Adaptation Strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tadesse, T.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Habib, S.; Funk, C. C.; Senay, G. B.; Dinku, T.; Policelli, F. S.; Block, P.; Baigorria, G. A.; Beyene, S.; Wardlow, B.; Hayes, M. J.

    2014-12-01

    The development of effective strategies to adapt to changes in the character of droughts and floods in Africa will rely on improved seasonal prediction systems that are robust to an evolving climate baseline and can be integrated into disaster preparedness and response. Many efforts have been made to build models to improve seasonal forecasts in the Greater Horn of Africa region (GHA) using satellite and climate data, but these efforts and models must be improved and translated into future conditions under evolving climate conditions. This has considerable social significance, but is challenged by the nature of climate predictability and the adaptability of coupled natural and human systems facing exposure to climate extremes. To address these issues, work is in progress under a project funded by NASA. The objectives of the project include: 1) Characterize and explain large-scale drivers in the ocean-atmosphere-land system associated with years of extreme flood or drought in the GHA. 2) Evaluate the performance of state-of-the-art seasonal forecast methods for prediction of decision-relevant metrics of hydrologic extremes. 3) Apply seasonal forecast systems to prediction of socially relevant impacts on crops, flood risk, and economic outcomes, and assess the value of these predictions to decision makers. 4) Evaluate the robustness of seasonal prediction systems to evolving climate conditions. The National Drought Mitigation Center (University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA) is leading this project in collaboration with the USGS, Johns Hopkins University, University of Wisconsin-Madison, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, NASA, and GHA local experts. The project is also designed to have active engagement of end users in various sectors, university researchers, and extension agents in GHA through workshops and/or webinars. This project is expected improve and implement new and existing climate- and remote sensing-based agricultural

  14. Performance Analysis of Air-to-Water Heat Pump in Latvian Climate Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kazjonovs, Janis; Sipkevics, Andrejs; Jakovics, Andris; Dancigs, Andris; Bajare, Diana; Dancigs, Leonards

    2014-12-01

    Strategy of the European Union in efficient energy usage demands to have a higher proportion of renewable energy in the energy market. Since heat pumps are considered to be one of the most efficient heating and cooling systems, they will play an important role in the energy consumption reduction in buildings aimed to meet the target of nearly zero energy buildings set out in the EU Directive 2010/31/EU. Unfortunately, the declared heat pump Coefficient of Performance (COP) corresponds to a certain outdoor temperature (+7 °C), therefore different climate conditions, building characteristics and settings result in different COP values during the year. The aim of this research is to investigate the Seasonal Performance factor (SPF) values of air-to-water heat pump which better characterize the effectiveness of heat pump in a longer selected period of time, especially during the winter season, in different types of residential buildings in Latvian climate conditions. Latvia has four pronounced seasons of near-equal length. Winter starts in mid-December and lasts until mid-March. Latvia is characterized by cold, maritime climate (duration of the average heating period being 203 days, the average outdoor air temperature during the heating period being 0.0 °C, the coldest five-day average temperature being -20.7 °C, the average annual air temperature being +6.2 °C, the daily average relative humidity being 79 %). The first part of this research consists of operational air-towater heat pump energy performance monitoring in different residential buildings during the winter season. The second part of the research takes place under natural conditions in an experimental construction stand which is located in an urban environment in Riga, Latvia. The inner area of this test stand, where air-to-water heat pump performance is analyzed, is 9 m2. The ceiling height is 3 m, all external wall constructions (U = 0.16 W/(m2K)) have ventilated facades. To calculate SPF, the

  15. Paradoxical cold conditions during the medieval climate anomaly in the Western Arctic.

    PubMed

    Jomelli, Vincent; Lane, Timothy; Favier, Vincent; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Swingedouw, Didier; Rinterknecht, Vincent; Schimmelpfennig, Irene; Brunstein, Daniel; Verfaillie, Deborah; Adamson, Kathryn; Leanni, Laëtitia; Mokadem, Fatima

    2016-01-01

    In the Northern Hemisphere, most mountain glaciers experienced their largest extent in the last millennium during the Little Ice Age (1450 to 1850 CE, LIA), a period marked by colder hemispheric temperatures than the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950 to 1250 CE, MCA), a period which coincided with glacier retreat. Here, we present a new moraine chronology based on (36)Cl surface exposure dating from Lyngmarksbræen glacier, West Greenland. Consistent with other glaciers in the western Arctic, Lyngmarksbræen glacier experienced several advances during the last millennium, the first one at the end of the MCA, in ~1200 CE, was of similar amplitude to two other advances during the LIA. In the absence of any significant changes in accumulation records from South Greenland ice cores, we attribute this expansion to multi-decadal summer cooling likely driven by volcanic and/or solar forcing, and associated regional sea-ice feedbacks. Such regional multi-decadal cold conditions at the end of the MCA are neither resolved in temperature reconstructions from other parts of the Northern Hemisphere, nor captured in last millennium climate simulations.

  16. Post-impact climate conditions on early Mars: preliminary results from GCM simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steakley, Kathryn; Murphy, Jim; Kahre, Melinda A.; Haberle, Robert

    2016-10-01

    Observations imply that liquid water was stable on Mars' surface during the late Noachian/early Hesperian era, with valley networks forming roughly 3.5-3.75 billion years ago, possibly from precipitation and runoff (Fassett & Head 2008, Icarus 195, 61; Hynek et al., 2010, JGR Planets, 115, E09008). Climate models, however, struggle to reproduce such warm conditions (Forget et al., 2013, Icarus 21, 81). Volcanism and impacts have been suggested as mechanisms of either inducing a warm and wet environment or causing local melting in a cold and wet environment. Comets and asteroids are capable of injecting into the atmosphere both kinetic energy from the impact and water from the object itself and from vaporized surface and subsurface ice. Segura et al. (2008, JGR Planets 113, E11007) find using a 1-D atmospheric model that significant rainfall and periods of above-freezing temperatures lasting months to years can follow impacts of objects between 30 and 100 km in diameter. We revisit this work utilizing a 3-D global climate model (GCM) to consider the effects of dynamics, topography, global surface ice variations, etc. We present preliminary results from the NASA ARC Mars GCM investigating global temperature and precipitation behavior in a post-impact, early Mars environment.

  17. Predictive analysis of landslide susceptibility in the Kao-Ping watershed, Taiwan under climate change conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shou, K. J.; Wu, C. C.; Lin, J. F.

    2015-01-01

    Among the most critical issues, climatic abnormalities caused by global warming also affect Taiwan significantly for the past decade. The increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events, in which concentrated and intensive rainfalls generally cause geohazards including landslides and debris flows. The extraordinary Typhoon Morakot hit Southern Taiwan on 8 August 2009 and induced serious flooding and landslides. In this study, the Kao-Ping River watershed was adopted as the study area, and the typical events 2007 Krosa Typhoon and 2009 Morakot Typhoon were adopted to train the susceptibility model. This study employs rainfall frequency analysis together with the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaling estimation to understand the temporal rainfall trends, distributions, and intensities in the Kao-Ping River watershed. The rainfall estimates were introduced in the landslide susceptibility model to produce the predictive landslide susceptibility for various rainfall scenarios, including abnormal climate conditions. These results can be used for hazard remediation, mitigation, and prevention plans for the Kao-Ping River watershed.

  18. Adapting SOYGRO V5.42 for prediction under climate change conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Pickering, N.B.; Jones, J.W.; Boote, K.J.

    1995-12-31

    In some studies of the impacts of climate change on global crop production, crop growth models were empirically adapted to improve their response to increased CO{sub 2} concentration and air temperature. This chapter evaluates the empirical adaptations of the photosynthesis and evapotranspiration (ET) algorithms used in the soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] model, SOYGRO V5.42, by comparing it with a new model that includes mechanistic approaches for these two processes. The new evapotranspiration-photosynthesis sub-model (ETPHOT) uses a hedgerow light interception algorithm, a C{sub 3}-leaf biochemical photosynthesis submodel, and predicts canopy ET and temperatures using a three-zone energy balance. ETPHOT uses daily weather data, has an internal hourly time step, and sums hourly predictions to obtain daily gross photosynthesis and ET. The empirical ET and photosynthesis curves included in SOYGRO V5.42 for climate change prediction were similar to those predicted by the ETPHOT model. Under extreme conditions that promote high leaf temperatures, like in the humid tropics. SOYGRO V5.42 overestimated daily gross photosynthesis response to CO{sub 2} compared with the ETPHOT model. SOYGRO V5.42 also slightly overestimated daily gross photosynthesis at intermediate air temperatures and ambient CO{sub 2} concentrations. 80 refs., 12 figs.

  19. Paradoxical cold conditions during the medieval climate anomaly in the Western Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2016-09-01

    In the Northern Hemisphere, most mountain glaciers experienced their largest extent in the last millennium during the Little Ice Age (1450 to 1850 CE, LIA), a period marked by colder hemispheric temperatures than the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950 to 1250 CE, MCA), a period which coincided with glacier retreat. Here, we present a new moraine chronology based on 36Cl surface exposure dating from Lyngmarksbræen glacier, West Greenland. Consistent with other glaciers in the western Arctic, Lyngmarksbræen glacier experienced several advances during the last millennium, the first one at the end of the MCA, in ~1200 CE, was of similar amplitude to two other advances during the LIA. In the absence of any significant changes in accumulation records from South Greenland ice cores, we attribute this expansion to multi-decadal summer cooling likely driven by volcanic and/or solar forcing, and associated regional sea-ice feedbacks. Such regional multi-decadal cold conditions at the end of the MCA are neither resolved in temperature reconstructions from other parts of the Northern Hemisphere, nor captured in last millennium climate simulations.

  20. Paradoxical cold conditions during the medieval climate anomaly in the Western Arctic

    PubMed Central

    Jomelli, Vincent; Lane, Timothy; Favier, Vincent; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Swingedouw, Didier; Rinterknecht, Vincent; Schimmelpfennig, Irene; Brunstein, Daniel; Verfaillie, Deborah; Adamson, Kathryn; Leanni, Laëtitia; Mokadem, Fatima; Aumaître, Georges; Bourlès, Didier L.; Keddadouche, Karim

    2016-01-01

    In the Northern Hemisphere, most mountain glaciers experienced their largest extent in the last millennium during the Little Ice Age (1450 to 1850 CE, LIA), a period marked by colder hemispheric temperatures than the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950 to 1250 CE, MCA), a period which coincided with glacier retreat. Here, we present a new moraine chronology based on 36Cl surface exposure dating from Lyngmarksbræen glacier, West Greenland. Consistent with other glaciers in the western Arctic, Lyngmarksbræen glacier experienced several advances during the last millennium, the first one at the end of the MCA, in ~1200 CE, was of similar amplitude to two other advances during the LIA. In the absence of any significant changes in accumulation records from South Greenland ice cores, we attribute this expansion to multi-decadal summer cooling likely driven by volcanic and/or solar forcing, and associated regional sea-ice feedbacks. Such regional multi-decadal cold conditions at the end of the MCA are neither resolved in temperature reconstructions from other parts of the Northern Hemisphere, nor captured in last millennium climate simulations. PMID:27609585

  1. Paradoxical cold conditions during the medieval climate anomaly in the Western Arctic.

    PubMed

    Jomelli, Vincent; Lane, Timothy; Favier, Vincent; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Swingedouw, Didier; Rinterknecht, Vincent; Schimmelpfennig, Irene; Brunstein, Daniel; Verfaillie, Deborah; Adamson, Kathryn; Leanni, Laëtitia; Mokadem, Fatima

    2016-01-01

    In the Northern Hemisphere, most mountain glaciers experienced their largest extent in the last millennium during the Little Ice Age (1450 to 1850 CE, LIA), a period marked by colder hemispheric temperatures than the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950 to 1250 CE, MCA), a period which coincided with glacier retreat. Here, we present a new moraine chronology based on (36)Cl surface exposure dating from Lyngmarksbræen glacier, West Greenland. Consistent with other glaciers in the western Arctic, Lyngmarksbræen glacier experienced several advances during the last millennium, the first one at the end of the MCA, in ~1200 CE, was of similar amplitude to two other advances during the LIA. In the absence of any significant changes in accumulation records from South Greenland ice cores, we attribute this expansion to multi-decadal summer cooling likely driven by volcanic and/or solar forcing, and associated regional sea-ice feedbacks. Such regional multi-decadal cold conditions at the end of the MCA are neither resolved in temperature reconstructions from other parts of the Northern Hemisphere, nor captured in last millennium climate simulations. PMID:27609585

  2. A method for finding the optimal predictor indices for local wave climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Camus, Paula; Méndez, Fernando J.; Losada, Inigo J.; Menéndez, Melisa; Espejo, Antonio; Pérez, Jorge; Rueda, Ana; Guanche, Yanira

    2014-07-01

    In this study, a method to obtain local wave predictor indices that take into account the wave generation process is described and applied to several locations. The method is based on a statistical model that relates significant wave height with an atmospheric predictor, defined by sea level pressure fields. The predictor is composed of a local and a regional part, representing the sea and the swell wave components, respectively. The spatial domain of the predictor is determined using the Evaluation of Source and Travel-time of wave Energy reaching a Local Area (ESTELA) method. The regional component of the predictor includes the recent historical atmospheric conditions responsible for the swell wave component at the target point. The regional predictor component has a historical temporal coverage ( n-days) different to the local predictor component (daily coverage). Principal component analysis is applied to the daily predictor in order to detect the dominant variability patterns and their temporal coefficients. Multivariate regression model, fitted at daily scale for different n-days of the regional predictor, determines the optimum historical coverage. The monthly wave predictor indices are selected applying a regression model using the monthly values of the principal components of the daily predictor, with the optimum temporal coverage for the regional predictor. The daily predictor can be used in wave climate projections, while the monthly predictor can help to understand wave climate variability or long-term coastal morphodynamic anomalies.

  3. Assessing the Land-Ocean Interaction under Extreme Climate Change Condition - a Modeling Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Z.; Wang, T.; Leung, R.; Balaguru, K.; Hibbard, K. A.

    2011-12-01

    Many modeling applications, at global and regional scales, have demonstrated that numerical models are useful tools to quantify the uncertainty and the interactions between natural physical and biogeochemical processes and human activities in coastal regions. A regional integrated assessment modeling framework to investigate the interactions of agriculture and land use, coastal ecological issues, energy supply and effects of climate changes is under development by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), with specific application to the Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf is vulnerable to the direct impacts of climate changes, such as sea level rise, hurricane-induced storm surge and extreme floods due to high precipitation and river run-off. This presentation will focus on the coastal modeling aspect of this integrated modeling approach. An unstructured-grid finite volume coastal ocean model, which has the capability of simulating coastal circulation, wave and storm surges, sediment transport and biogeochemical processes, is applied to simulate hurricane storm surges and extreme flood events in the coastal region of Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, storm surge along the US Southeast coasts and freshwater plume in the Mississippi Delta were simulated and compared to observations. Numerical sensitivity studies with boundary conditions and forcing indicated the urgent need of a real observation network as well as the importance of accurate model predictions at regional scales to drive the model at smaller scales. The implication of natural pressures, such as storm surge and flooding to biogeochemical processes and marine ecosystem will be discussed.

  4. Monitoring Thermal Performance of Hollow Bricks with Different Cavity Fillers in Difference Climate Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavlík, Zbyšek; Jerman, Miloš; Fořt, Jan; Černý, Robert

    2015-03-01

    Hollow brick blocks have found widespread use in the building industry during the last decades. The increasing requirements to the thermal insulation properties of building envelopes given by the national standards in Europe led the brick producers to reduce the production of common solid bricks. Brick blocks with more or less complex systems of internal cavities replaced the traditional bricks and became dominant on the building ceramics market. However, contrary to the solid bricks where the thermal conductivity can easily be measured by standard methods, the complex geometry of hollow brick blocks makes the application of common techniques impossible. In this paper, a steady-state technique utilizing a system of two climatic chambers separated by a connecting tunnel for sample positioning is used for the determination of the thermal conductivity, thermal resistance, and thermal transmittance ( U value) of hollow bricks with the cavities filled by air, two different types of mineral wool, polystyrene balls, and foam polyurethane. The particular brick block is provided with the necessary temperature- and heat-flux sensors and thermally insulated in the tunnel. In the climatic chambers, different temperatures are set. After steady-state conditions are established in the measuring system, the effective thermal properties of the brick block are calculated using the measured data. Experimental results show that the best results are achieved with hydrophilic mineral wool as a cavity filler; the worst performance exhibits the brick block with air-filled cavities.

  5. Air Flow Path Dynamics In The Vadose Zone Under Various Land Surface Climate Boundary Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Illangasekare, T. H.; Sakaki, T.; Schulte, P. E.; Cihan, A.; Christ, J.

    2010-12-01

    Vapor intrusion (VI) refers to the transport of volatile chemical vapors from subsurface sources to surface and subsurface structures through the vadose zone. Because of the difference in pressure between the inside of the building and the subsurface soil pores, vapor can enter the building through cracks in the foundation, slab and walls and utility openings. The processes that govern the vapor transport in the heterogeneous subsurface “outside the home” are complex, and the sampling to assess potential pathways is subjected to spatial and temporal variability. Spatial variability is a result of a number of factors that include changing soil and soil moisture conditions. Temporal variability is a result of transient heat, wind, ambient pressure and a water flux boundary conditions at the land-atmospheric interface. Fluctuating water table conditions controlled by recharge, pumping, and stream-aquifer interactions will also contribute to the transient vapor flux generation at the sources. When the soil moisture changes as a result of precipitation events and other soil surface boundary conditions, the soil moisture content changes and hence the air permeability. Therefore, the primary pathways for the vapor are preferential channels that change with the transient soil moisture distribution. Both field and laboratory studies have shown that heterogeneity has a significant influence on soil moisture conditions in unsaturated soils. Uncertainties in vapor transport predictions have been attributed to heterogeneity and spatial variability in hydraulic properties. In this study, our goal was to determine the role of soil moisture variability on vapor transport and intrusion as affected by the climate driven boundary conditions on the land surface. A series of experiments were performed to generate a comprehensive data set to understand and evaluate how the spatial and temporal variability of soil moisture affected by the mass and heat flux boundary conditions on the

  6. Climatic and environmental conditions favoring the crossing of the Carpathians by early Neolithic populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perşoiu, Ioana; Perşoiu, Aurel

    2015-04-01

    The study of the origin and spread of Neolithic has been the subject of heated debate since the early studies of Childe (1942). To what extent the dispersal process was influenced by environmental factors is still debated, one of the issues being whether climatic conditions influencing agricultural practices, could have influenced the dispersal route, "blocking" some of the Neolithic societies in front of ecological barriers. Data from Neolithic sites in SE Europe shows that a continuous stream of people and cultures flowed through the Danube's Iron Gates towards Central Europe, while in the eastern part of Europe this process was delayed, people and cultures "moving" around the Carpathians and crossing them with a delay of ca. 1000 years. One of the possible avenues for this crossing is the floodplain of Someşu Mic River (Transylvanian depression), home to the oldest (~8500 cal. BP) Neolithic settlement in Romania. In this paper, we review the climatic and environmental changes that affected the region at the time of Neolithic dispersal. Pollen and stable isotopes in cave ice indicate an early Holocene rapid warming during summer months, peaking around 7 ka cal. BP; and a delayed warming for autumn and winter months, peaking at 5 ka cal. BP, both followed by a continuous cooling trend towards the present. Someşu Mic River developed and maintained a narrow sinuous channel during the Holocene, with local development of meanders and anabranches, in response to both climatic and geologic controlling factors. Archaeological finds in the floodplain and the lower terraces suggest that human societies in the region responded in sensitive manner to these climatic and environmental changes. During warm and dry periods, with low fluvial activity, the number of settlements increased in the floodplain's perimeter, while during the short cold and humid periods, the number of settlements rapidly increased on the lower terraces and on the valley slopes, disappearing from the

  7. Simulation of in-stream water quality on global scale under changing climate and anthropogenic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voss, Anja; Bärlund, Ilona; Punzet, Manuel; Williams, Richard; Teichert, Ellen; Malve, Olli; Voß, Frank

    2010-05-01

    Although catchment scale modelling of water and solute transport and transformations is a widely used technique to study pollution pathways and effects of natural changes, policies and mitigation measures there are only a few examples of global water quality modelling. This work will provide a description of the new continental-scale model of water quality WorldQual and the analysis of model simulations under changed climate and anthropogenic conditions with respect to changes in diffuse and point loading as well as surface water quality. BOD is used as an indicator of the level of organic pollution and its oxygen-depleting potential, and for the overall health of aquatic ecosystems. The first application of this new water quality model is to river systems of Europe. The model itself is being developed as part of the EU-funded SCENES Project which has the principal goal of developing new scenarios of the future of freshwater resources in Europe. The aim of the model is to determine chemical fluxes in different pathways combining analysis of water quantity with water quality. Simple equations, consistent with the availability of data on the continental scale, are used to simulate the response of in-stream BOD concentrations to diffuse and anthropogenic point loadings as well as flow dilution. Point sources are divided into manufacturing, domestic and urban loadings, whereas diffuse loadings come from scattered settlements, agricultural input (for instance livestock farming), and also from natural background sources. The model is tested against measured longitudinal gradients and time series data at specific river locations with different loading characteristics like the Thames that is driven by domestic loading and Ebro with relative high share of diffuse loading. With scenario studies the influence of climate and anthropogenic changes on European water resources shall be investigated with the following questions: 1. What percentage of river systems will have

  8. Hydraulics of sub-superficial flow constructed wetlands in semi arid climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Ranieri, E

    2003-01-01

    This paper reports the evaluation of the hydraulics of two constructed wetland (cw(s)) plants located in Apulia (the South Eastern Italy region characterized by semi arid climate conditions). These fields were planted with Phragmites australis hydrophytes and are supplied with local secondary wastewater municipal treatment plant effluent. Each plant--Kickuth Root-Zone method based--covers an area of approx. 2,000 m2. The evapotranspiration phenomenon has been evaluated within perforated tubes fixed to the field bottom and very high values--up to 40 mm/d--were found. Hydraulic conductivity has been evaluated by in situ measurements at different field points. Hydraulic gradients and the piezometric curve within the field are also reported. PMID:12793661

  9. Wheat breadmaking properties in dependance on wheat enzymes status and climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Tomić, Jelena; Torbica, Aleksandra; Popović, Ljiljana; Hristov, Nikola; Nikolovski, Branislava

    2016-05-15

    The objective of this study was to evaluate albumins profile, proteolytic and amylolytic activity level and baking performance of wheat varieties grown in two production years with different climate conditions (2011 and 2012) in four locations. The results of ANOVA showed that variety, location, production year, and their interactions all had significant effects on all tested wheat quality parameters. The enzymatic activity and specific bread volume were mainly influenced by the variety. The samples from 2012 production year, had the lower values of albumin content, proteolytic and amylolytic activity, and bread specific volume. The correlation analysis, performed for 2011 production year, showed that albumin fraction (15-30 kDa) and proteolytic activity were negatively correlated with bread specific volume indicating the role of this fraction on lowering the crucial bread quality parameter. In 2012 production year, albumin fractions (5-15 kDa; 50-65 kDa) showed the most correlations, especially with parameters of bread quality.

  10. Hydraulics of sub-superficial flow constructed wetlands in semi arid climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Ranieri, E

    2003-01-01

    This paper reports the evaluation of the hydraulics of two constructed wetland (cw(s)) plants located in Apulia (the South Eastern Italy region characterized by semi arid climate conditions). These fields were planted with Phragmites australis hydrophytes and are supplied with local secondary wastewater municipal treatment plant effluent. Each plant--Kickuth Root-Zone method based--covers an area of approx. 2,000 m2. The evapotranspiration phenomenon has been evaluated within perforated tubes fixed to the field bottom and very high values--up to 40 mm/d--were found. Hydraulic conductivity has been evaluated by in situ measurements at different field points. Hydraulic gradients and the piezometric curve within the field are also reported.

  11. Effects of lateral boundary condition resolution and update frequency on regional climate model predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pankatz, Klaus; Kerkweg, Astrid

    2015-04-01

    The work presented is part of the joint project "DecReg" ("Regional decadal predictability") which is in turn part of the project "MiKlip" ("Decadal predictions"), an effort funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research to improve decadal predictions on a global and regional scale. In MiKlip, one big question is if regional climate modeling shows "added value", i.e. to evaluate, if regional climate models (RCM) produce better results than the driving models. However, the scope of this study is to look more closely at the setup specific details of regional climate modeling. As regional models only simulate a small domain, they have to inherit information about the state of the atmosphere at their lateral boundaries from external data sets. There are many unresolved questions concerning the setup of lateral boundary conditions (LBC). External data sets come from global models or from global reanalysis data-sets. A temporal resolution of six hours is common for this kind of data. This is mainly due to the fact, that storage space is a limiting factor, especially for climate simulations. However, theoretically, the coupling frequency could be as high as the time step of the driving model. Meanwhile, it is unclear if a more frequent update of the LBCs has a significant effect on the climate in the domain of the RCM. The first study examines how the RCM reacts to a higher update frequency. The study is based on a 30 year time slice experiment for three update frequencies of the LBC, namely six hours, one hour and six minutes. The evaluation of means, standard deviations and statistics of the climate in the regional domain shows only small deviations, some statistically significant though, of 2m temperature, sea level pressure and precipitation. The second part of the first study assesses parameters linked to cyclone activity, which is affected by the LBC update frequency. Differences in track density and strength are found when comparing the simulations

  12. Effects of flow scarcity on leaf-litter processing under oceanic climate conditions in calcareous streams.

    PubMed

    Martínez, Aingeru; Pérez, Javier; Molinero, Jon; Sagarduy, Mikel; Pozo, Jesús

    2015-01-15

    Although temporary streams represent a high proportion of the total number and length of running waters, historically the study of intermittent streams has received less attention than that of perennial ones. The goal of the present study was to assess the effects of flow cessation on litter decomposition in calcareous streams under oceanic climate conditions. For this, leaf litter of alder was incubated in four streams (S1, S2, S3 and S4) with different flow regimes (S3 and S4 with zero-flow periods) from northern Spain. To distinguish the relative importance and contribution of decomposers and detritivores, fine- and coarse-mesh litter bags were used. We determined processing rates, leaf-C, -N and -P concentrations, invertebrate colonization in coarse bags and benthic invertebrates. Decomposition rates in fine bags were similar among streams. In coarse bags, only one of the intermittent streams, S4, showed a lower rate than that in the other ones as a consequence of lower invertebrate colonization. The material incubated in fine bags presented higher leaf-N and -P concentrations than those in the coarse ones, except in S4, pointing out that the decomposition in this stream was driven mainly by microorganisms. Benthic macroinvertebrate and shredder density and biomass were lower in intermittent streams than those in perennial ones. However, the bags in S3 presented a greater amount of total macroinvertebrates and shredders comparing with the benthos. The most suitable explanation is that the fauna find a food substrate in bags less affected by calcite precipitation, which is common in the streambed at this site. Decomposition rate in coarse bags was positively related to associated shredder biomass. Thus, droughts in streams under oceanic climate conditions affect mainly the macroinvertebrate detritivore activity, although macroinvertebrates may show distinct behavior imposed by the physicochemical properties of water, mainly travertine precipitation, which can

  13. Simulation of the environmental climate conditions on martian surface and its effect on Deinococcus radiodurans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de la Vega, U. Pogoda; Rettberg, P.; Reitz, G.

    The resistance of terrestrial microorganisms under the thermo-physical conditions of Mars (diurnal temperature variations, UV climate, atmospheric pressure and gas composition) at mid-latitudes was studied for the understanding and assessment of potential life processes on Mars. In order to accomplish a targeted search for life on other planets, e.g. Mars, it is necessary to know the limiting physical and chemical parameters of terrestrial life. Therefore the polyextremophile bacterium Deinococcus radiodurans was chosen as test organism for these investigations. For the simulation studies at the Planetary and Space Simulation Facilities (PSI) at DLR, Cologne, Germany, conditions that are present during the southern summer at latitude of 60° on Mars were applied. We could simulate several environmental parameters of Mars in one single experiment: vacuum/low pressure, anoxic atmosphere and diurnal cycles in temperature and relative humidity, energy-rich ultraviolet (UV) radiation as well as shielding by different martian soil analogue materials. These parameters have been applied both single and in different combinations in laboratory experiments. Astonishingly the diurnal Mars-like cycles in temperature and relative humidity affected the viability of D. radiodurans cells quite severely. But the martian UV climate turned out to be the most deleterious factor, though D. radiodurans is red-pigmented due to carotenoids incorporated in its cell wall, which have been assigned not only a possible role as free radical scavenger but also as a UV-protectant. An additional UV-protection was accomplished by mixing the bacteria with nano-sized hematite.

  14. Effects of flow scarcity on leaf-litter processing under oceanic climate conditions in calcareous streams.

    PubMed

    Martínez, Aingeru; Pérez, Javier; Molinero, Jon; Sagarduy, Mikel; Pozo, Jesús

    2015-01-15

    Although temporary streams represent a high proportion of the total number and length of running waters, historically the study of intermittent streams has received less attention than that of perennial ones. The goal of the present study was to assess the effects of flow cessation on litter decomposition in calcareous streams under oceanic climate conditions. For this, leaf litter of alder was incubated in four streams (S1, S2, S3 and S4) with different flow regimes (S3 and S4 with zero-flow periods) from northern Spain. To distinguish the relative importance and contribution of decomposers and detritivores, fine- and coarse-mesh litter bags were used. We determined processing rates, leaf-C, -N and -P concentrations, invertebrate colonization in coarse bags and benthic invertebrates. Decomposition rates in fine bags were similar among streams. In coarse bags, only one of the intermittent streams, S4, showed a lower rate than that in the other ones as a consequence of lower invertebrate colonization. The material incubated in fine bags presented higher leaf-N and -P concentrations than those in the coarse ones, except in S4, pointing out that the decomposition in this stream was driven mainly by microorganisms. Benthic macroinvertebrate and shredder density and biomass were lower in intermittent streams than those in perennial ones. However, the bags in S3 presented a greater amount of total macroinvertebrates and shredders comparing with the benthos. The most suitable explanation is that the fauna find a food substrate in bags less affected by calcite precipitation, which is common in the streambed at this site. Decomposition rate in coarse bags was positively related to associated shredder biomass. Thus, droughts in streams under oceanic climate conditions affect mainly the macroinvertebrate detritivore activity, although macroinvertebrates may show distinct behavior imposed by the physicochemical properties of water, mainly travertine precipitation, which can

  15. Present and future assessment of growing degree days over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pattanaik, D. R.; Mohapatra, M.; Srivastava, A. K.; Kumar, Arun

    2016-06-01

    The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). The current study focuses on three selected study areas in Greece that are characterised by different climatic conditions due to their location and aims to assess the future variation and spatial distribution of Growing Degree Days (GDD) and how these can affect the main cultivations in the study areas. Future temperature data were obtained and analysed by the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis was performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 with the A1B and B1 scenarios. Spatial distribution was performed using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling technique through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for all the future periods and scenarios, the GDD are expected to increase. Furthermore, the increase in the Sperchios River basin will be the highest, followed by the Ardas and the Geropotamos River basins. Moreover, the cultivation period will be shifted from April-October to April-September which will have social, economical and environmental benefits. Additionally, the spatial distribution indicated that in the upcoming years the existing cultivations can find favourable conditions and can be expanded in mountainous areas as well. On the other hand, due to the rough topography that exists in the study areas, the wide expansion of the existing cultivations into higher altitudes is unaffordable. Nevertheless, new more profitable cultivations can be introduced which can find propitious conditions in terms of GDD.

  16. Present and future assessment of growing degree days over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pattanaik, D. R.; Mohapatra, M.; Srivastava, A. K.; Kumar, Arun

    2016-08-01

    The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). The current study focuses on three selected study areas in Greece that are characterised by different climatic conditions due to their location and aims to assess the future variation and spatial distribution of Growing Degree Days (GDD) and how these can affect the main cultivations in the study areas. Future temperature data were obtained and analysed by the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis was performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 with the A1B and B1 scenarios. Spatial distribution was performed using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling technique through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for all the future periods and scenarios, the GDD are expected to increase. Furthermore, the increase in the Sperchios River basin will be the highest, followed by the Ardas and the Geropotamos River basins. Moreover, the cultivation period will be shifted from April-October to April-September which will have social, economical and environmental benefits. Additionally, the spatial distribution indicated that in the upcoming years the existing cultivations can find favourable conditions and can be expanded in mountainous areas as well. On the other hand, due to the rough topography that exists in the study areas, the wide expansion of the existing cultivations into higher altitudes is unaffordable. Nevertheless, new more profitable cultivations can be introduced which can find propitious conditions in terms of GDD.

  17. Stress and body condition are associated with climate and demography in Asian elephants

    PubMed Central

    Mumby, Hannah S.; Mar, Khyne U.; Thitaram, Chatchote; Courtiol, Alexandre; Towiboon, Patcharapa; Min-Oo, Zaw; Htut-Aung, Ye; Brown, Janine L.; Lummaa, Virpi

    2015-01-01

    Establishing links between ecological variation, physiological markers of stress and demography is crucial for understanding how and why changes in environmental conditions affect population dynamics, and may also play a key role for conservation efforts of endangered species. However, detailed longitudinal studies of long-lived species are rarely available. We test how two markers of stress and body condition vary through the year and are associated with climatic conditions and large-scale mortality and fertility variation in the world's largest semi-captive population of Asian elephants employed in the timber industry in Myanmar. Glucocorticoid metabolites (used as a proxy for stress levels in 75 elephants) and body weight (used as a proxy for condition in 116 elephants) were monitored monthly across a typical monsoon cycle and compared with birth and death patterns of the entire elephant population over half a century (n = 2350). Our results show seasonal variation in both markers of stress and condition. In addition, this variation is correlated with population-level demographic variables. Weight is inversely correlated with population mortality rates 1 month later, and glucocorticoid metabolites are negatively associated with birth rates. Weight shows a highly positive correlation with rainfall 1 month earlier. Determining the factors associated with demography may be key to species conservation by providing information about the correlates of mortality and fertility patterns. The unsustainability of the studied captive population has meant that wild elephants have been captured and tamed for work. By elucidating the correlates of demography in captive elephants, our results offer management solutions that could reduce the pressure on the wild elephant population in Myanmar. PMID:27293715

  18. Hydraulic Implications to Upper Basin Stream Systems From Changing Climatic Conditions in the Sierra Nevada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cornwell, K.; Burns, R. G.

    2005-12-01

    Projected climate changes in the Sierra Nevada of northern California may result in more variability in winter storm patterns and an increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events. Changing rain and snow patterns will alter the timing and amount of runoff in the streams that drain the west slope of the Sierra Nevada and will have bearing on water resource management strategies that rely on that runoff. These runoff changes will in turn challenge existing threshold conditions for channel stability, bank erosion, and hill slope stability. Increased sediment loads will impact existing water-routing infrastructure. Hydraulic conditions from several streams that drain the west slope of the Sierra Nevada in the American River drainage basin were measured to assess threshold changes in response to variable discharges. We reconstructed flow conditions from 1997 (early 1997 storms brought widespread flooding to the central and northern Sierra Nevada and peak flows at many gage sites in the region were the largest recorded during historical time) and 2005 in these channels (representing extreme and typical flow conditions) and then looked at changes to cross-sectional areas, flow velocities, channel shear stresses and sediment sizes since 1998 (earliest available sediment data). Initial insights suggest increases to runoff/discharge will likely produce pulses of mobilized coarser materials (resulting from greater channel shear stresses) that may take several years to transport through stream systems, and channel areas that are geologically weak (unconsolidated or weathered surface materials) may be susceptible to substantial erosion. These conditions will likely impact water-routing infrastructure in the upper basins (pipelines, pumps, and turbines) that manage water flow in the Sierra Nevada for much of northern California.

  19. Stress and body condition are associated with climate and demography in Asian elephants.

    PubMed

    Mumby, Hannah S; Mar, Khyne U; Thitaram, Chatchote; Courtiol, Alexandre; Towiboon, Patcharapa; Min-Oo, Zaw; Htut-Aung, Ye; Brown, Janine L; Lummaa, Virpi

    2015-01-01

    Establishing links between ecological variation, physiological markers of stress and demography is crucial for understanding how and why changes in environmental conditions affect population dynamics, and may also play a key role for conservation efforts of endangered species. However, detailed longitudinal studies of long-lived species are rarely available. We test how two markers of stress and body condition vary through the year and are associated with climatic conditions and large-scale mortality and fertility variation in the world's largest semi-captive population of Asian elephants employed in the timber industry in Myanmar. Glucocorticoid metabolites (used as a proxy for stress levels in 75 elephants) and body weight (used as a proxy for condition in 116 elephants) were monitored monthly across a typical monsoon cycle and compared with birth and death patterns of the entire elephant population over half a century (n = 2350). Our results show seasonal variation in both markers of stress and condition. In addition, this variation is correlated with population-level demographic variables. Weight is inversely correlated with population mortality rates 1 month later, and glucocorticoid metabolites are negatively associated with birth rates. Weight shows a highly positive correlation with rainfall 1 month earlier. Determining the factors associated with demography may be key to species conservation by providing information about the correlates of mortality and fertility patterns. The unsustainability of the studied captive population has meant that wild elephants have been captured and tamed for work. By elucidating the correlates of demography in captive elephants, our results offer management solutions that could reduce the pressure on the wild elephant population in Myanmar. PMID:27293715

  20. Stress and body condition are associated with climate and demography in Asian elephants.

    PubMed

    Mumby, Hannah S; Mar, Khyne U; Thitaram, Chatchote; Courtiol, Alexandre; Towiboon, Patcharapa; Min-Oo, Zaw; Htut-Aung, Ye; Brown, Janine L; Lummaa, Virpi

    2015-01-01

    Establishing links between ecological variation, physiological markers of stress and demography is crucial for understanding how and why changes in environmental conditions affect population dynamics, and may also play a key role for conservation efforts of endangered species. However, detailed longitudinal studies of long-lived species are rarely available. We test how two markers of stress and body condition vary through the year and are associated with climatic conditions and large-scale mortality and fertility variation in the world's largest semi-captive population of Asian elephants employed in the timber industry in Myanmar. Glucocorticoid metabolites (used as a proxy for stress levels in 75 elephants) and body weight (used as a proxy for condition in 116 elephants) were monitored monthly across a typical monsoon cycle and compared with birth and death patterns of the entire elephant population over half a century (n = 2350). Our results show seasonal variation in both markers of stress and condition. In addition, this variation is correlated with population-level demographic variables. Weight is inversely correlated with population mortality rates 1 month later, and glucocorticoid metabolites are negatively associated with birth rates. Weight shows a highly positive correlation with rainfall 1 month earlier. Determining the factors associated with demography may be key to species conservation by providing information about the correlates of mortality and fertility patterns. The unsustainability of the studied captive population has meant that wild elephants have been captured and tamed for work. By elucidating the correlates of demography in captive elephants, our results offer management solutions that could reduce the pressure on the wild elephant population in Myanmar.

  1. Monitoring particulate matter levels and climate conditions in a Greek sheep and goat livestock building.

    PubMed

    Papanastasiou, Dimitris K; Fidaros, Dimitris; Bartzanas, Thomas; Kittas, Constantinos

    2011-12-01

    Atmospheric pollutants from livestock operations influence air quality inside livestock buildings and the air exhausted from them. The climate that prevails inside the building affects human and animal health and welfare, as well as productivity, while emissions from the building contribute to environmental pollution. The aim of this study was to examine the variation of two climatic parameters (namely temperature and relative humidity) and the levels of particulate matter of different sizes (PM10-PM2.5-PM1), as well as the relationships between them, inside a typical Greek naturally ventilated livestock building that hosts mainly sheep. The concentration of particles was recorded during a 45-day period (27/11-10/1), while temperature and relative humidity were observed during an almost 1-year period. The analysis revealed that the variation of outdoor weather conditions significantly influenced the indoor environment, as temperature and relative humidity inside the building varied in accordance to the outside climate conditions. Temperature remained higher indoors than outdoors during the winter and extremely low values were not recorded inside the building. However, the tolerable relative humidity levels recommended by the International Commission of Agricultural Engineering (CIGR) were fulfilled only in 47% of the hours during the almost 1-year period that was examined. This fact indicates that although temperature was satisfactorily controlled, the control of relative humidity was deficient. The concentration of particulate matter was increased during the cold winter days due to poor ventilation. The maximum daily average value of PM10, PM2.5 and PM1 concentration equaled to 363, 61 and 30 μg/m(3) respectively. The concentration of the coarse particles was strongly influenced by the farming activities that were daily taking place in the building, the dust resuspension being considered as the dominant source. A significant part of the fine particles were

  2. Can environmental conditions affect smallholders' climate change perception? Evidence from an aridity gradient in the Gobi desert.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rueff, Henri

    2016-04-01

    There is a growing interest in smallholders' climate change perception (CCP). Understanding what people perceive in relation to the climate they endure supports national climate change adaptation policy especially relevant to uncertain and resource-scarce environments. Most research so far focused on the accuracy of CCP compared to observed climatic data. However, the potential effect of factors influencing peoples' perceptions remains largely unstudied. This research tests two hypotheses in a desert environment; first, that CCP varies along an aridity gradient, and, second, that respondents are more consistent (answers less far apart) in their CCP when facing more climate shocks, which supports the first hypothesis. A semi-structured survey was conducted among nomadic (Mongolia) (n=180) and semi-nomadic (Inner Mongolia-China) (n=180) herders, to analyse perception along an aridity gradient (proxied by Normalised Difference Vegetation Index) covering an array of climate change issues in the Gobi. Results suggests that environmental conditions have a significant effect on CCP but only in terms of experienced climate shocks. The CCP for other climatic variables (rain, season length) is more diffused and can poorly be predicted by the surrounding environment smallholders live in. Institutional contrasts between China and Mongolia explain marginally differences of perception. Further research is needed to validate these results among smallholders on other environmental gradient types, for examples along altitudinal biome stratification in mountain environments.

  3. Projecting impacts of climate change on hydrological conditions and biotic responses in a chalk valley riparian wetland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    House, A. R.; Thompson, J. R.; Acreman, M. C.

    2016-03-01

    Projected changes in climate are likely to substantially impact wetland hydrological conditions that will in turn have implications for wetland ecology. Assessing ecohydrological impacts of climate change requires models that can accurately simulate water levels at the fine-scale resolution to which species and communities respond. Hydrological conditions within the Lambourn Observatory at Boxford, Berkshire, UK were simulated using the physically based, distributed model MIKE SHE, calibrated to contemporary surface and groundwater levels. The site is a 10 ha lowland riparian wetland where complex geological conditions and channel management exert strong influences on the hydrological regime. Projected changes in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, channel discharge and groundwater level were derived from the UK Climate Projections 2009 ensemble of climate models for the 2080s under different scenarios. Hydrological impacts of climate change differ through the wetland over short distances depending on the degree of groundwater/surface-water interaction. Discrete areas of groundwater upwelling are associated with an exaggerated response of water levels to climate change compared to non-upwelling areas. These are coincident with regions where a weathered chalk layer, which otherwise separates two main aquifers, is absent. Simulated water levels were linked to requirements of the MG8 plant community and Desmoulin's whorl snail (Vertigo moulinsiana) for which the site is designated. Impacts on each are shown to differ spatially and in line with hydrological impacts. Differences in water level requirements for this vegetation community and single species highlight the need for separate management strategies in distinct areas of the wetland.

  4. Relating changes of organic matter composition of two German peats to climatic conditions during peat formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knicker, Heike; Nikolova, Radoslava; Rumpel, Cornelia; González-Vila, Francisco, J.; Drösler, Matthias

    2010-05-01

    Peatlands have been recognized as an important factor within the global C-cycle, since they store about one-third of the global terrestrial C-pool. Furthermore, peat deposits have the potential to record detailed paleoclimatic and - vegetational changes. They are formed in peculiar paleoecosystems where the slow biodegradation of plant residues depends on a series of pedo-climatic and hydromorphic factors leading to a progressive accumulation of organic matter stabilized in different evolutionary stages. Thus, its chemical composition should be applicable as a fingerprint of former prevailing environmental conditions and vegetation configurations. The aim of the present work was to identify this fingerprint in the cores of two German fens, one derived from the Havelland close to Berlin (Großer Bolchow) and the other derived from the alpine region of Bavaria (Kendlmühlfilzen) by investigating the organic matter transformation as a function of peat depths. The C/N ratios and δ13C values revealed several distinctive trends in the two profiles related to prevailing peat forming conditions. Compared to the other layers, at depths of 14-85 cm and 132-324 cm in the Kendlmühlfilzen fen, high C/N ratios and less depleted δ13C values, indicated that the accumulation of these two layers occurred during a humid and cold period. In the case of the "Großer Bolchow", algal contributions were clearly detected using δ13C values. Solid-state 13C NMR spectroscopy demonstrated loss of celluloses and accumulation of lipids and lignin derivatives during peatification, confirming that under the mostly O2-depleted conditions in peats, decomposition was selective. The results obtained by pyrolysis-GC/MS were in good agreement with the NMR data showing that processes ascribed to gradual biotransformation of the lignin occurred in both peats. However, the "Großer Bolchow" peat revealed a more advanced decomposition stage then the "Kendlmühlfilzen" peat, which is in agreement with

  5. Analysis of climate change effects on runoff conditions of two small catchments using climate-runoff models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Csóka, Gergely; Béla Brolly, Gábor; Czimber, Kornél; Gálos, Borbála; Kalicz, Péter; Gribovszki, Zoltán

    2014-05-01

    Nowadays global climate change is one of the most discussed scientific topic. According to prognosis (both optimistic and pessimistic) Hungarian economy will have to deal with serious difficulties in consequence of air temperature and precipitation changes. Preparing for climate change inducing problems in this paper climate-runoff (Budyko type) models were employed for two small catchments (Béci- and Kürtös-creek) in South Western Hungary. There were trusty long term runoff and precipitation time series, as well as spatially-distributed precipitation and evapotranspiration maps (validated by locally measured precipitation and runoff data) available. The climate change dataset was calculated on the basis of the prognosis of twelve regional climate models. Spatially-distributed calibration parameter of Budyko-model was calculated by using temperature, precipitation and areal ET maps. The parameter map aggregates all of the factors affecting ET. This map is used for evaluating future ET and runoff in spatially-distributed mode. In spite of the fact results have some inaccuracy, in the order of magnitude they reliably show that annual runoff of analysed catchments will have strong recession (46% for Béci and 51% for Kürtös creek) to the end of the 21st century. This publication has been supported by TÁMOP-4.2.2.A-11/1/KONV-2012-0013 project. The research of Zoltán Gribovszki was supported by the European Union and the State of Hungary, co-financed by the European Social Fund in the framework of TÁMOP 4.2.4. A/2-11-1-2012-0001 'National Excellence Program'.

  6. Projected 21st Century Impacts of Climate Change on the Performance of the Los Angeles Aqueduct and Adaptation Measures to Mitigate Adverse Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mills, B.; Sayenko, K.; Roy, S. B.; Lew, C.

    2011-12-01

    One of the largest sources of drinking water to the City of Los Angeles (the City) comes from snow melt from the Eastern Sierra Nevada Mountains that drain into Owens Valley and Mono Basin. Much of this water is then transported to the City via the Los Angeles Aqueduct (LAA) originally built in 1913. During the 1980s and earlier, up to 500,000 acre-feet (af) of water was conveyed annually, but more recently less water has been transported due to increasing usage in Owens Valley, and due to a series of dry years.The City is concerned about potential impacts of climate change on this water supply, and commissioned the authors to perform a study to evaluate these potential impacts on both the infrastructure of the LAA and water supply to the City. This presentation focuses on the water supply issue, which has the potential to impact millions of customers. The study results presented here are part of a larger study where 16 global climate models were downscaled and applied to the Owens Valley and Mono Basin watersheds. This presentation begins by assuming base-of-mountain runoff is known from the 16 GCMs, and does not focus on the GCMs or downscaling.The results of the study described in this presentation are those of the authors and not of the LADWP. One of the most consequential findings of the study is the projected decrease in runoff from the watershed over the 21st century. While wet years are still dispersed between dry years, over the 21st century the loss in runoff is equivalent to approximately five years of historical average runoff. In addition to climate change impacts, water usage in the Owens valley is projected to increase over the 21st century and that increasing usage is projected to be comparable to climate change impacts. Eight adaptation options were identified to mitigate potential impacts. These included increasing storage volume of reservoirs in Owens Valley, changing operational rules for releasing water, construction of surface storage or

  7. Farmer Health and Adaptive Capacity in the Face of Climate Change and Variability. Part 1: Health as a Contributor to Adaptive Capacity and as an Outcome from Pressures Coping with Climate Related Adversities

    PubMed Central

    Berry, Helen L.; Hogan, Anthony; Ng, Suan Peng; Parkinson, Anne

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the role farmers’ health plays as an element of adaptive capacity. The study examines which of twenty aspects of adaptation may be related to overall health outcomes, controlling for demographic and on-farm-factors in health problems. The analysis is based on 3,993 farmers’ responses to a national survey of climate risk and adaptation. Hierarchical linear regression modelling was used examine the extent to which, in a multivariate analysis, the use of adaptive practices was predictively associated with self-assessed health, taking into account the farmer’s rating of whether their health was a barrier to undertaking farm work. We present two models, one excluding pre-existing health (model 1) and one including pre-existing health (model 2). The first model accounted for 21% of the variance. In this model better health was most strongly predicted by an absence of on-farm risk, greater financial viability, greater debt pressures, younger age and a desire to continue farming. Social capital (trust and reciprocity) was moderately associated with health as was the intention to adopt more sustainable practices. The second model (including the farmers’ health as a barrier to undertaking farm work) accounted for 43% of the variance. Better health outcomes were most strongly explained, in order of magnitude, by the absence of pre-existing health problems, greater access to social support, greater financial viability, greater debt pressures, a desire to continue farming and the condition of on-farm resources. Model 2 was a more parsimonious model (only nine predictors, compared with 15 in model 1), and explained twice as much variance in health outcomes. These results suggest that (i) pre-existing health problems are a very important factor to consider when designing adaptation programs and policies and (ii) these problems may mediate or modify the relationship between adaptation and health. PMID:22073027

  8. Farmer health and adaptive capacity in the face of climate change and variability. Part 1: Health as a contributor to adaptive capacity and as an outcome from pressures coping with climate related adversities.

    PubMed

    Berry, Helen L; Hogan, Anthony; Ng, Suan Peng; Parkinson, Anne

    2011-10-01

    This paper examines the role farmers' health plays as an element of adaptive capacity. The study examines which of twenty aspects of adaptation may be related to overall health outcomes, controlling for demographic and on-farm-factors in health problems. The analysis is based on 3,993 farmers' responses to a national survey of climate risk and adaptation. Hierarchical linear regression modelling was used examine the extent to which, in a multivariate analysis, the use of adaptive practices was predictively associated with self-assessed health, taking into account the farmer's rating of whether their health was a barrier to undertaking farm work. We present two models, one excluding pre-existing health (model 1) and one including pre-existing health (model 2). The first model accounted for 21% of the variance. In this model better health was most strongly predicted by an absence of on-farm risk, greater financial viability, greater debt pressures, younger age and a desire to continue farming. Social capital (trust and reciprocity) was moderately associated with health as was the intention to adopt more sustainable practices. The second model (including the farmers' health as a barrier to undertaking farm work) accounted for 43% of the variance. Better health outcomes were most strongly explained, in order of magnitude, by the absence of pre-existing health problems, greater access to social support, greater financial viability, greater debt pressures, a desire to continue farming and the condition of on-farm resources. Model 2 was a more parsimonious model (only nine predictors, compared with 15 in model 1), and explained twice as much variance in health outcomes. These results suggest that (i) pre-existing health problems are a very important factor to consider when designing adaptation programs and policies and (ii) these problems may mediate or modify the relationship between adaptation and health.

  9. Vaccine adverse events.

    PubMed

    Follows, Jill

    2012-01-01

    Millions of adults are vaccinated annually against the seasonal influenza virus. An undetermined number of individuals will develop adverse events to the influenza vaccination. Those who suffer substantiated vaccine injuries, disabilities, and aggravated conditions may file a timely, no-fault and no-cost petition for financial compensation under the National Vaccine Act in the Vaccine Court. The elements of a successful vaccine injury claim are described in the context of a claim showing the seasonal influenza vaccination was the cause of Guillain-Barré syndrome.

  10. Climatic thresholds for pedogenic iron oxides under aerobic conditions: Processes and their significance in paleoclimate reconstruction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Long, Xiaoyong; Ji, Junfeng; Barrón, Vidal; Torrent, José

    2016-10-01

    Iron oxides are widely distributed across the surface of the Earth as a result of the aerobic weathering of primary Fe-bearing minerals. Pedogenic iron oxides which consist mainly of hematite (Hm), goethite (Gt), maghemite (Mgh), are often concentrated synchronously in aerobic soils under low to moderate rainfall regimes. Magnetic susceptibility (χ) and redness, which respectively reflect the content of Mgh and Hm in soils, are considered reasonable pedogenic and climatic indicators in soil taxonomy and paleorainfall reconstruction. However, under high rainfall regimes, the grain growth of Mgh and transformation to Hm, combined with the prior formation of Gt under conditions of high relative humidity (RH), can result in magnetic reduction and dramatic yellowing of soils and sediments, which explains the existence of rainfall thresholds for Mgh and Hm at a large scale even before the pedogenic environment turns anaerobic. In order to capture the rainfall thresholds for Mgh and Hm occurring under aerobic conditions, we explored a tropical transect across a granitic region where the soil color turned from red to yellow under a wide rainfall range of 900-2200 mm/yr and a corresponding mean annual RH range of 77%-85%. We observed a lower rainfall threshold of ∼1500 mm/yr and a corresponding RH ∼80% for Mgh and Hm along this transect, as well as a higher rainfall threshold of ∼1700 mm/yr and a corresponding RH of ∼81% for Gt and total pedogenic iron oxides (citrate/bicarbonate/dithionite-extractable Fe, Fed). Cross-referencing with comparable studies in temperate and subtropical regions, we noted that the rainfall or RH thresholds for Fed and Hm or Mgh likewise increase with temperature. Moreover, the different thresholds for total and individual iron oxide phase indicates that a negative correlation between chemical weathering intensity and redness or χ in sediment sequences can occur under the prevalent climate regime just between their thresholds. Finally

  11. Accumulation of pharmaceuticals in groundwater under arid climate conditions - Results from unsaturated column experiments.

    PubMed

    Zemann, M; Majewsky, M; Wolf, L

    2016-07-01

    Intense reuse of treated wastewater in agriculture is practiced all over the world, especially in arid and water-scarce regions. In doing so, pharmaceutical residues in the water are irrigated to the soil and subsequently can percolate into the local aquifers. Since evaporation rates in these areas are typically high, persistent substances might enrich in the groundwater recharge of closed catchments like the Jordan Valley. Against this background, unsaturated column tests were conducted to investigate the potential for evaporative accumulation of the two pharmaceuticals bezafibrate and carbamazepine under simulated arid climate conditions. Parallel tests were conducted with inhibited microbiological activity where both substances showed an increase in the effluent concentrations proportional to the evaporation loss of the inflow solution. The mean accumulation factors of the pharmaceuticals correspond to the evaporated water loss. The experiments indicate the accumulation potential for pharmaceuticals with high persistence against biodegradation. For the first time, the overall potential for evaporative enrichment could be demonstrated for pharmaceuticals. Under the given experimental conditions, the two investigated pharmaceuticals did not enrich faster than chloride, which might result in soil salting prior to reaching harmful pharmaceutical concentrations in soil water. The findings are relevant to future assessments of environmental impacts of persistent trace substances, which need to take into account that concentrations in the aquatic cycle might increase further due to evaporative enrichment. PMID:27085060

  12. Effects of Climate and Sewer Condition on Virus Transport to Groundwater.

    PubMed

    Gotkowitz, Madeline B; Bradbury, Kenneth R; Borchardt, Mark A; Zhu, Jun; Spencer, Susan K

    2016-08-16

    Pathogen contamination from leaky sanitary sewers poses a threat to groundwater quality in urban areas, yet the spatial and temporal dimensions of this contamination are not well understood. In this study, 16 monitoring wells and six municipal wells were repeatedly sampled for human enteric viruses. Viruses were detected infrequently, in 17 of 455 samples, compared to previous sampling at these wells. Thirteen of the 22 wells sampled were virus-positive at least once. While the highest virus concentrations occurred in shallower wells, shallow and deep wells were virus-positive at similar rates. Virus presence in groundwater was temporally coincident, with 16 of 17 virus-positive samples collected in a six-month period. Detections were associated with precipitation and occurred infrequently during a prolonged drought. The study purposely included sites with sewers of differing age and material. The rates of virus detections in groundwater were similar at all study sites during this study. However, a relationship between sewer age and virus detections emerged when compared to data from an earlier study, conducted during high precipitation conditions. Taken together, these data indicate that sewer condition and climate affect urban groundwater contamination by human enteric viruses.

  13. Grassland species differentially regulate proline concentrations under future climate conditions: an integrated biochemical and modelling approach.

    PubMed

    AbdElgawad, Hamada; De Vos, Dirk; Zinta, Gaurav; Domagalska, Malgorzata A; Beemster, Gerrit T S; Asard, Han

    2015-10-01

    Proline (Pro) is a versatile metabolite playing a role in the protection of plants against environmental stresses. To gain a deeper understanding of the regulation of Pro metabolism under predicted future climate conditions, including drought stress, elevated temperature and CO2 , we combined measurements in contrasting grassland species (two grasses and two legumes) at multiple organisational levels, that is, metabolite concentrations, enzyme activities and gene expression. Drought stress (D) activates Pro biosynthesis and represses its catabolism, and elevated temperature (DT) further elevated its content. Elevated CO2 attenuated the DT effect on Pro accumulation. Computational pathway control analysis allowed a mechanistic understanding of the regulatory changes in Pro metabolism. This analysis indicates that the experimentally observed coregulation of multiple enzymes is more effective in modulating Pro concentrations than regulation of a single step. Pyrroline-5-carboxylate synthetase (P5CS) and pyrroline-5-carboxylate reductase (P5CR) play a central role in grasses (Lolium perenne, Poa pratensis), and arginase (ARG), ornithine aminotransferase (OAT) and P5CR play a central role in legumes (Medicago lupulina, Lotus corniculatus). Different strategies in the regulation of Pro concentrations under stress conditions were observed. In grasses the glutamate pathway is activated predominantly, and in the legumes the ornithine pathway, possibly related to differences in N-nutritional status. PMID:26037253

  14. Grassland species differentially regulate proline concentrations under future climate conditions: an integrated biochemical and modelling approach.

    PubMed

    AbdElgawad, Hamada; De Vos, Dirk; Zinta, Gaurav; Domagalska, Malgorzata A; Beemster, Gerrit T S; Asard, Han

    2015-10-01

    Proline (Pro) is a versatile metabolite playing a role in the protection of plants against environmental stresses. To gain a deeper understanding of the regulation of Pro metabolism under predicted future climate conditions, including drought stress, elevated temperature and CO2 , we combined measurements in contrasting grassland species (two grasses and two legumes) at multiple organisational levels, that is, metabolite concentrations, enzyme activities and gene expression. Drought stress (D) activates Pro biosynthesis and represses its catabolism, and elevated temperature (DT) further elevated its content. Elevated CO2 attenuated the DT effect on Pro accumulation. Computational pathway control analysis allowed a mechanistic understanding of the regulatory changes in Pro metabolism. This analysis indicates that the experimentally observed coregulation of multiple enzymes is more effective in modulating Pro concentrations than regulation of a single step. Pyrroline-5-carboxylate synthetase (P5CS) and pyrroline-5-carboxylate reductase (P5CR) play a central role in grasses (Lolium perenne, Poa pratensis), and arginase (ARG), ornithine aminotransferase (OAT) and P5CR play a central role in legumes (Medicago lupulina, Lotus corniculatus). Different strategies in the regulation of Pro concentrations under stress conditions were observed. In grasses the glutamate pathway is activated predominantly, and in the legumes the ornithine pathway, possibly related to differences in N-nutritional status.

  15. Effects of Climate and Sewer Condition on Virus Transport to Groundwater.

    PubMed

    Gotkowitz, Madeline B; Bradbury, Kenneth R; Borchardt, Mark A; Zhu, Jun; Spencer, Susan K

    2016-08-16

    Pathogen contamination from leaky sanitary sewers poses a threat to groundwater quality in urban areas, yet the spatial and temporal dimensions of this contamination are not well understood. In this study, 16 monitoring wells and six municipal wells were repeatedly sampled for human enteric viruses. Viruses were detected infrequently, in 17 of 455 samples, compared to previous sampling at these wells. Thirteen of the 22 wells sampled were virus-positive at least once. While the highest virus concentrations occurred in shallower wells, shallow and deep wells were virus-positive at similar rates. Virus presence in groundwater was temporally coincident, with 16 of 17 virus-positive samples collected in a six-month period. Detections were associated with precipitation and occurred infrequently during a prolonged drought. The study purposely included sites with sewers of differing age and material. The rates of virus detections in groundwater were similar at all study sites during this study. However, a relationship between sewer age and virus detections emerged when compared to data from an earlier study, conducted during high precipitation conditions. Taken together, these data indicate that sewer condition and climate affect urban groundwater contamination by human enteric viruses. PMID:27434550

  16. Impact of Climate Conditions on Occupational Health and Related Economic Losses: A New Feature of Global and Urban Health in the Context of Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Kjellstrom, Tord

    2016-03-01

    One feature of climate change is the increasing heat exposure in many workplaces where efficient cooling systems cannot be applied. Excessive heat exposure is a particular problem for working people because of the internal heat production when muscle work is carried out. The physiological basis for severe heat stroke, other clinical effects, and heat exhaustion is well known. One feature of this health effect of excessive workplace heat exposure is reduced work capacity, and new research has started to quantify this effect in the context of climate change. Current climate conditions in tropical and subtropical parts of the world are already so hot during the hot seasons that occupational health effects occur and work capacity for many working people is affected. The Hothaps-Soft database and software andClimateCHIP.orgwebsite make it possible to rapidly produce estimates of local heat conditions and trends. The results can be mapped to depict the spatial distribution of workplace heat stress. In South-East Asia as much as 15% to 20% of annual work hours may already be lost in heat-exposed jobs, and this may double by 2050 as global climate change progresses. By combining heat exposure data and estimates of the economic consequences, the vulnerability of many low- and middle-income countries is evident. The annual cost of reduced labor productivity at country level already in 2030 can be several percent of GDP, which means billions of US dollars even for medium-size countries. The results provide new arguments for effective climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and preventive actions in all countries.

  17. Modelling hydrological extremes under non-stationary conditions using climate covariates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vasiliades, Lampros; Galiatsatou, Panagiota; Loukas, Athanasios

    2013-04-01

    Extreme value theory is a probabilistic theory that can interpret the future probabilities of occurrence of extreme events (e.g. extreme precipitation and streamflow) using past observed records. Traditionally, extreme value theory requires the assumption of temporal stationarity. This assumption implies that the historical patterns of recurrence of extreme events are static over time. However, the hydroclimatic system is nonstationary on time scales that are relevant to extreme value analysis, due to human-mediated and natural environmental change. In this study the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is used to assess nonstationarity in annual maximum daily rainfall and streamflow timeseries at selected meteorological and hydrometric stations in Greece and Cyprus. The GEV distribution parameters (location, scale, and shape) are specified as functions of time-varying covariates and estimated using the conditional density network (CDN) as proposed by Cannon (2010). The CDN is a probabilistic extension of the multilayer perceptron neural network. Model parameters are estimated via the generalized maximum likelihood (GML) approach using the quasi-Newton BFGS optimization algorithm, and the appropriate GEV-CDN model architecture for the selected meteorological and hydrometric stations is selected by fitting increasingly complicated models and choosing the one that minimizes the Akaike information criterion with small sample size correction. For all case studies in Greece and Cyprus different formulations are tested with combinational cases of stationary and nonstationary parameters of the GEV distribution, linear and non-linear architecture of the CDN and combinations of the input climatic covariates. Climatic indices such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which describes atmospheric circulation in the eastern tropical pacific related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index that varies on an interdecadal

  18. Groundwater Management Policies for Maintaining Stream Flow Given Variable Climatic Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pohll, G.; Carroll, R. W.; Brozovic, N.

    2012-12-01

    Groundwater is an important resource to agriculture throughout the semi-arid United States, where farmers often supplement surface water diversions with groundwater pumping. Understanding the complex exchange over space and time between rivers and aquifers is important in developing management alternatives that are capable of preserving stream flow for habitat and increasing water deliveries downstream while minimizing lost crop production. Previous integrated hydrologic-economic models have generally assumed superposition of the impacts of groundwater pumping on the hydrologic system for analytical tractability. Although this assumption may be reasonable for some surface water-groundwater systems, in many systems the behavior diverges considerably from the linear assumption. We present analyses using an integrated hydrologic-economic model of surface water-groundwater interaction with nonlinear dynamics, developed for the Mason Valley area in Nevada. The study area has active water conflict between upstream and downstream water users, where groundwater pumping has an important impact on streamflow. The model replicates the movement of water throughout the coupled river and aquifer of the Walker River system and is used to analyze hypothetical tradeoffs between increasing streamflow at the basin outlet and meeting crop water demands for irrigation. The model is run from 1997 to 2006 to capture wet and dry climatic conditions, including a four year drought period in which groundwater pumping accounts for more than 50% of the irrigated water budget. Three alternate groundwater management policies are analyzed to compare economic performance (resulting from reductions in crop area due to reduced groundwater pumping) and hydrologic impact (in terms of increased stream discharge at the basin outlet). First, uniform pumping quotas are the simplest policy to implement and are modeled here as equal reductions in groundwater pumping for each stakeholder at a lumped field

  19. Global vegetation-fire pattern under different land use and climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thonicke, K.; Poulter, B.; Heyder, U.; Gumpenberger, M.; Cramer, W.

    2008-12-01

    Fire is a process of global significance in the Earth System influencing vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling and biophysical feedbacks. Naturally ignited wildfires have long history in the Earth System. Humans have been using fire to shape the landscape for their purposes for many millenia, sometimes influencing the status of the vegetation remarkably as for example in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Processes and drivers describing fire danger, ignitions, fire spread and effects are relatively well-known for many fire-prone ecosystems. Modeling these has a long tradition in fire-affected regions to predict fire risk and behavior for fire-fighting purposes. On the other hand, the global vegetation community realized the importance of disturbances to be recognized in their global vegetation models with fire being globally most important and so-far best studied. First attempts to simulate fire globally considered a minimal set of drivers, whereas recent developments attempt to consider each fire process separately. The process-based fire model SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) simulates these processes embedded in the LPJ DGVM. Uncertainties still arise from missing measurements for some parameters in less-studied fire regimes, or from broad PFT classifications which subsume different fire-ecological adaptations and tolerances. Some earth observation data sets as well as fire emission models help to evaluate seasonality and spatial distribution of simulated fire ignitions, area burnt and fire emissions within SPITFIRE. Deforestation fires are a major source of carbon released to the atmosphere in the tropics; in the Amazon basin it is the second-largest contributor to Brazils GHG emissions. How ongoing deforestation affects fire regimes, forest stability and biogeochemical cycling in the Amazon basin under present climate conditions will be presented. Relative importance of fire vs. climate and land use change is analyzed. Emissions resulting from

  20. Sedimentation, elevation and marsh evolution in a southeastern Australian estuary during changing climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rogers, Kerrylee; Saintilan, Neil; Howe, Alice J.; Rodríguez, José F.

    2013-11-01

    Mangrove and salt marsh vertical accretion and surface elevation change was measured at Kooragang Island within the Ramsar-listed Lower Hunter estuarine wetlands in New South Wales, Australia, using surface elevation tables and marker horizons over a ten-year period. We surveyed mangrove, salt marsh and a zone of mangrove encroachment into salt marsh. The period of analysis was dominated by El Niño (drought) climatic conditions, though included a series of east coast low pressure systems and associated storms over the central coast of NSW in June 2007. The storms may have initially caused scouring of sediments in the mangrove zone, followed by significant accretion within both the mangrove and salt marsh during the six months following the storms, with most of this accretion corresponding to spring tides several months after the storms. These accretion events were not accompanied by an equivalent elevation change, and robust elevation trends over the study period in mangrove and salt marsh indicate that the storms may have had little impact on the longer-term elevation dynamics within both the mangrove and salt marsh at Kooragang Island. Elevation dynamics in these zones appear to be regulated by vertical accretion over longer time periods and modulated by hydrology at shorter temporal scales. Elevation declined in the mangrove encroachment zone despite continued vertical accretion and we propose that this discrepancy may be associated with expansion of tidal creeks near the zone of mangrove encroachment or loss of salt marsh vegetation. This pattern of encroachment is consistent with observations from sites throughout the region and may be related to climatic perturbations (El Niño Southern Oscillation) rather than directly attributed to the storms.

  1. Global atmospheric sulfur budget under volcanically quiescent conditions: Aerosol-chemistry-climate model predictions and validation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheng, Jian-Xiong; Weisenstein, Debra K.; Luo, Bei-Ping; Rozanov, Eugene; Stenke, Andrea; Anet, Julien; Bingemer, Heinz; Peter, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    The global atmospheric sulfur budget and its emission dependence have been investigated using the coupled aerosol-chemistry-climate model SOCOL-AER. The aerosol module comprises gaseous and aqueous sulfur chemistry and comprehensive microphysics. The particle distribution is resolved by 40 size bins spanning radii from 0.39 nm to 3.2 μm, including size-dependent particle composition. Aerosol radiative properties required by the climate model are calculated online from the aerosol module. The model successfully reproduces main features of stratospheric aerosols under nonvolcanic conditions, including aerosol extinctions compared to Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) and Halogen Occultation Experiment, and size distributions compared to in situ measurements. The calculated stratospheric aerosol burden is 109 Gg of sulfur, matching the SAGE II-based estimate (112 Gg). In terms of fluxes through the tropopause, the stratospheric aerosol layer is due to about 43% primary tropospheric aerosol, 28% SO2, 23% carbonyl sulfide (OCS), 4% H2S, and 2% dimethyl sulfide (DMS). Turning off emissions of the short-lived species SO2, H2S, and DMS shows that OCS alone still establishes about 56% of the original stratospheric aerosol burden. Further sensitivity simulations reveal that anticipated increases in anthropogenic SO2 emissions in China and India have a larger influence on stratospheric aerosols than the same increase in Western Europe or the U.S., due to deep convection in the western Pacific region. However, even a doubling of Chinese and Indian emissions is predicted to increase the stratospheric background aerosol burden only by 9%. In contrast, small to moderate volcanic eruptions, such as that of Nabro in 2011, may easily double the stratospheric aerosol loading.

  2. Uncertainty of the hydrological response to climate change conditions; 605 basins, 3 hydrological models, 5 climate models, 5 hydrological variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melsen, Lieke; Mizukami, Naoki; Newman, Andrew; Clark, Martyn; Teuling, Adriaan

    2016-04-01

    Many studies investigated the effect of a changing climate on the hydrological response of a catchment and uncertainty of the effect coming from hydrologic modelling (e.g., forcing, hydrologic model structures, and parameters). However, most past studies used only a single or a small number of catchments. To go beyond the case-study, and to assess the uncertainty involved in modelling the hydrological impact of climate change more comprehensively, we studied 605 basins over a wide range of climate regimes throughout the contiguous USA. We used three different widely-used hydrological models (VIC, HBV, SAC), which we forced with five distinct climate model outputs. The hydrological models have been run for a base period (1986-2008) for which observations were available, and for a future period (2070-2099). Instead of calibrating each hydrological model for each basin, the model has been run with a parameter sample (varying from 1600 to 1900 samples dependent on the number of free parameters in the model). Five hydrological states and fluxes were stored; discharge, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, SWE and snow melt, and 15 different metrics and signatures have been obtained for each model run. With the results, we conduct a sensitivity analysis over the change in signatures from the future period compared to the base period. In this way, we can identify the parameters that are responsible for certain projected changes, and identify the processes responsible for this change. By using three different models, in which VIC is most distinctive in including explicit vegetation parameters, we can compare different process representations and the effect on the projected hydrological change.

  3. Response of tree growth to climatic variation and stand dynamics: Implications for modeling stand dynamics under varying climatic conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Graumlich, L.J.; Holmes, R.L. )

    1994-06-01

    We used tree-ring data to assess the relative importance of regional climate vs. stand-level processes in controlling tree growth for seven forest dominants of the mixed conifer forest of the Sierra Nevada. For each species, increment cores were collected from at least 20 canopy dominants at several sites arrayed along elevational gradients extending from lower to upper elevational limits. Species sampled include ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), Jeffrey pine (P. jeffreyi), sugar pine (P. lambertina), white fir (Abies concolor), red fir (A. magnifica), incense cedar (Calocedrus decurrens), and black oak (Quercus keloggii). Stand-level processes generate low to medium frequency variation in growth that is not held in common among trees within a site or between sites. Stand-level processes are most important for white and red fir and least important for ponderosa pine. Regional climatic variation generates medium to high frequency variation that is coherent among trees of the same species (and often same genera). Results such as these have utility for parameterizing and validating stand simulation models, especially for use in climatic change scenarios.

  4. Eco-Hydro-Geomorphic Response of Semiarid Hillslopes to Changing Anthropic and Climatic Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreno De Las Heras, M.; Saco, P. M.

    2012-12-01

    The vegetation of semiarid areas regions is frequently sparse, with mixed herbaceous and woody plant species displaying both negative (competition) and positive (facilitation) interactions. Shifts in the vegetation structure which result from climatic or anthropic effects, alter the hydrologic response of these systems and can have very diverse impacts on ecosystem functioning. For example, in the southeastern US changes from grassland to shrublands have been linked to degradation processes. However the opposite has been observed in areas of Australia and Spain, in which shrubs have been found to improve the conditions for understory grasses promoting restoration. Here we use a spatial ecogeormorphologic model that simulates the dynamics of runoff redistribution and erosion for hillslopes with patterned vegetation. The patterned vegetation module accounts for coexisting plant species and their varying effects on key hydrologic processes like infiltration and evaporation. Plants species that act as ecosystems engineers preferentially enhance infiltration rates and reduce evaporation due to shading, and therefore have a key impact on water redistribution at the hillslope scale. The development of a spatially variable infiltration field with low infiltration rates in the bare soil areas (due to surface crusting) and high infiltration rates in the vegetated areas (due to improved soil aggregation and macroporosity) is responsible for the emergence of a runoff-runon system, which determines the surface hydrologic connectivity of the landscape and sediment redistribution. We find that the introduction of different shrub species with varying degree of preferential infiltration enhancement and shading effects, can explain the contrasting observations described above. Implications for restoration efforts are illustrated using observations from agricultural sites in central Australia and reclaimed mining sites in Spain. We simulated and analysed the ecogeomorphic evolution

  5. The effects of regional climate change on space conditioning needs and the energy industry in the Great Lakes region

    SciTech Connect

    Fernau, M.E.; Maloney, E.D.; Bates, G.T.

    1996-03-01

    To date, studies of the effects of potential climate change on energy use and demand have been done on a macro scale or with coarse model data but it is regional climate change effects that will determine the behavior of energy users. The output from a 3-year simulation (both base case and doubled CO{sub 2} conditions) of the coupled NCAR CCM/MM4 regional (60 km resolution) climate modeling system is used to examine changes in average temperature and temperature variability on a regional scale, the impacts of such change on the need for space conditioning in the Great Lakes region, and the subsequent changes in energy demand. From these results, changes in heating and cooling degree days, and changes in consecutive days above or below various temperature thresholds were calculated. The model results indicate that the changed climate under doubled carbon dioxide conditions would have large impacts on energy use, although it is difficult to determine the balance between decreased heating needs and increased cooling needs. Biases are present in the temperature output of the modeling system. However, the model shows promise for regional studies and the recent successful coupling of a one-dimensional thermal eddy diffusion model to the NCAR modeling system to represent the Great Lakes promises that the next iteration of climate change output from the NCAR system will yield important results when applied to effects studies.

  6. Integrated analysis of present and future responses of precipitation over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Maris, Fotios; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2016-03-01

    The assessment of future precipitation variations prevailing in an area is essential for the research regarding climate and climate change. The current paper focuses on 3 selected areas in Greece that present different climatic characteristics due to their location and aims to assess and compare the future variation of annual and seasonal precipitation. Future precipitation data from the ENSEMBLES anthropogenic climate-change (ACC) global simulations and the Climate version of the Local Model (CLM) were obtained and analyzed. The climate simulations were performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under the A1B and B1 scenarios. Mann-Kendall test was applied to investigate possible trends. Spatial distribution of precipitation was performed using a combination of dynamic and statistical downscaling techniques and Kriging method within ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for both scenarios, reference periods and study areas, precipitation is expected to be critically decreased. Additionally, Mann-Kendall test application showed a strong downward trend for every study area. Furthermore, the decrease in precipitation for the Ardas River basin characterized by the continental climate will be tempered, while in the Sperchios River basin it will be smoother due to the influence of some minor climatic variations in the basins' springs in the highlands where milder conditions occur. Precipitation decrease in the Geropotamos River basin which is characterized by Mediterranean climate will be more vigorous. B1 scenario appeared more optimistic for the Ardas and Sperchios River basins, while in the Geropotamos River basin, both applied scenarios brought similar results, in terms of future precipitation response.

  7. Directed International Technological Change and Climate Policy: New Methods for Identifying Robust Policies Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molina-Perez, Edmundo

    : climate change, elasticity of substitution between renewable and fossil energy and three different sources of technological uncertainty (i.e. R&D returns, innovation propensity and technological transferability). The performance of eight different GCF and non-GCF based policy regimes is evaluated in light of various end-of-century climate policy targets. Then I combine traditional scenario discovery data mining methods (Bryant and Lempert, 2010) with high dimensional stacking methods (Suzuki, Stem and Manzocchi, 2015; Taylor et al., 2006; LeBlanc, Ward and Wittels, 1990) to quantitatively characterize the conditions under which it is possible to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions and keep temperature rise below 2°C before the end of the century. Finally, I describe a method by which it is possible to combine the results of scenario discovery with high-dimensional stacking to construct a dynamic architecture of low cost technological cooperation. This dynamic architecture consists of adaptive pathways (Kwakkel, Haasnoot and Walker, 2014; Haasnoot et al., 2013) which begin with carbon taxation across both regions as a critical near term action. Then in subsequent phases different forms of cooperation are triggered depending on the unfolding climate and technological conditions. I show that there is no single policy regime that dominates over the entire uncertainty space. Instead I find that it is possible to combine these different architectures into a dynamic framework for technological cooperation across regions that can be adapted to unfolding climate and technological conditions which can lead to a greater rate of success and to lower costs in meeting the end-of-century climate change objectives agreed at the 2015 Paris Conference of the Parties. Keywords: international technological change, emerging nations, climate change, technological uncertainties, Green Climate Fund.

  8. Agricultural machineries wheeling and soil qualities mapping in climatic changes conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bergonzoli, S.; Servadio, P.

    2012-04-01

    and on control areas, a software GIS was used. Results shown the highest level of soil compaction caused by the traffic of WTN in term of CI and SS. In fact, increment ratio respect to the control measured after the tractors pass were: CI = 0.65 and 0.14 for WTN and for WTEL respectively; SS = 0.65 and 0.46 for WTN and WTEL respectively. Comparing the two different tires, significant differences were found particularly in the surface layers (0-0.20 m depth): mean values of CI and SS were higher for WTN (0.47 and 1.60 respectively) respect to WTEL. Track area covered by the two treatments respect to the whole field (16.32 ha) were: 0.025 for treatment WTN (0.27 m tires width) having an operative work width of 24 m ; 0.075 for treatment WTEL (0.85 m tires width) having an operative work width of 14 m. Results of this study highlighted that, in these field conditions (clay soil, water content over field capacity), tractor pass with very narrow tires caused a soil compaction level too high up to be impossible to traffic into the field. To operate at these soil water content conditions a tractors fitted with low aspect ratio and low inflation pressure tires is necessary. With lower soil water content, narrow tires allow carrying out fertilization into the inter-row avoiding crop trampling and compacting less percentage of field area respect to the a tractor equipped with large tires. Key words: Tractor, Soil trafficability, Soil compaction, Tires, GPS, GIS. Acknowledgements This work was carried out under the auspices of the special project "Sceneries of adaptation of the Italian agriculture to the climatic changes" (AGROSCENARI) of the Agricultural Research Council, and Italian Ministry of the Agricultural and Forestry Politics.

  9. Backscatter modelling and inversion from Cassini/SAR data: Implications for Titan's sand seas properties and climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucas, A.; Rodriguez, S.; Lemonnier, F.; Paillou, P.; Le Gall, A. A.; Narteau, C.

    2015-12-01

    Sand seas on Titan may reflect the present and past climatic conditions. Understanding the morphodynamics and physicochemical properties of Titan's dunes is therefore essential for a better comprehension of the climatic and geological history of the largest Saturn's moon. We derived quantitatively surface properties (texture, composition) from the modelling of microwave backscattered signal and Monte Carlo inversion of despeckled Cassini/SAR data over the equatorial sand seas. We show that dunes and inter-dunes have significantly different physical properties. Absorption is more efficient in the dunes compared to the inter-dunes. The inter-dunes are smoother with an higher dielectric constant than the dunes. Considering the composition, the inter-dunes are in between the dunes and the bright inselbergs, suggesting the presence of a shallow layer of sediment in between the dunes. Additionally potential secondary bedforms may have been detected. Implications for dune morphodynamics, sediment inventory and climatic conditions occurring on Titan will be discussed.

  10. A new coupled ice sheet-climate model: description and sensitivity to model physics under Eemian, Last Glacial Maximum, late Holocene and modern climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fyke, J. G.; Weaver, A. J.; Pollard, D.; Eby, M.; Carter, L.; Mackintosh, A.

    2010-08-01

    The need to better understand long-term climate/ice sheet feedback loops is motivating efforts to couple ice sheet models into Earth System models which are capable of long-timescale simulations. In this paper we describe a coupled model, that consists of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) and the Pennsylvania State University Ice model (PSUI). The climate model generates a surface mass balance (SMB) field via a sub-gridded surface energy/moisture balance model that resolves narrow ice sheet ablation zones. The ice model returns revised elevation, surface albedo and ice area fields, plus coastal fluxes of heat and moisture. An arbitrary number of ice sheets can be simulated, each on their own high-resolution grid and each capable of synchronous or asynchronous coupling with the overlying climate model. The model is designed to conserve global heat and moisture. In the process of improving model performance we developed a procedure to account for modelled surface air temperature (SAT) biases within the energy/moisture balance surface model and improved the UVic ESCM snow surface scheme through addition of variable albedos and refreezing over the ice sheet. A number of simulations for late Holocene, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and Eemian climate boundary conditions were carried out to explore the sensitivity of the coupled model and identify model configurations that best represented these climate states. The modelled SAT bias was found to play a significant role in long-term ice sheet evolution, as was the effect of refreezing meltwater and surface albedo. The bias-corrected model was able to reasonably capture important aspects of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, including modern SMB and ice distribution. The simulated northern Greenland ice sheet was found to be prone to ice margin retreat at radiative forcings corresponding closely to those of the Eemian or the present-day.

  11. A new coupled ice sheet/climate model: description and sensitivity to model physics under Eemian, Last Glacial Maximum, late Holocene and modern climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fyke, J. G.; Weaver, A. J.; Pollard, D.; Eby, M.; Carter, L.; Mackintosh, A.

    2011-03-01

    The need to better understand long-term climate/ice sheet feedback loops is motivating efforts to couple ice sheet models into Earth System models which are capable of long-timescale simulations. In this paper we describe a coupled model that consists of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) and the Pennsylvania State University Ice model (PSUI). The climate model generates a surface mass balance (SMB) field via a sub-gridded surface energy/moisture balance model that resolves narrow ice sheet ablation zones. The ice model returns revised elevation, surface albedo and ice area fields, plus coastal fluxes of heat and moisture. An arbitrary number of ice sheets can be simulated, each on their own high-resolution grid and each capable of synchronous or asynchronous coupling with the overlying climate model. The model is designed to conserve global heat and moisture. In the process of improving model performance we developed a procedure to account for modelled surface air temperature (SAT) biases within the energy/moisture balance surface model and improved the UVic ESCM snow surface scheme through addition of variable albedos and refreezing over the ice sheet. A number of simulations for late Holocene, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and Eemian climate boundary conditions were carried out to explore the sensitivity of the coupled model and identify model configurations that best represented these climate states. The modelled SAT bias was found to play a significant role in long-term ice sheet evolution, as was the effect of refreezing meltwater and surface albedo. The bias-corrected model was able to reasonably capture important aspects of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, including modern SMB and ice distribution. The simulated northern Greenland ice sheet was found to be prone to ice margin retreat at radiative forcings corresponding closely to those of the Eemian or the present-day.

  12. Relationship of climatic conditions to fecal corticosterone levels of captive cheetahs reared in Japan.

    PubMed

    Uetake, Katsuji; Une, Yumi; Ito, Shu; Yamabe, Marino; Toyoda, Hideto; Tanaka, Toshio

    2014-10-01

    To assess the stress level of cheetahs reared in Japan and to identify the prime components of the climatic conditions that affect their thermal stress, fecal corticosterone was monitored for 8 months from May to the following January. A total of 203 fecal samples were gathered in the morning from seven adult cheetahs that were kept at a zoological garden in Wakayama, Japan. Cheetahs were on exhibit singly or together with a harmonious conspecific during the day, but housed singly at night. Although the monthly fluctuation in corticosterone concentrations was not significant, the concentrations were relatively low during the summer season. Individual differences among cheetahs and the interaction effect between individual and month on the corticosterone concentrations were significant. Whereas the corticosterone concentrations negatively correlated with air temperature, they were positively correlated with the amount of rainfall. The highest air temperature and the amount of rainfall were extracted as the prime factors affecting corticosterone concentrations. These results suggest that cheetahs reared in Japan are somewhat subjected to thermal stress, particularly on cooler and/or rainy days.

  13. Investigation of heat transfer in a triple-glazing type window at greek climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vrachopoulos, Michalis; Koukou, Maria; Filos, George; Moraitis, Christos

    2013-12-01

    Heat loss through building windows has a major effect on the energy efficiency of the buildings. The window studied in this paper is a triple-glazing type window pane in which spaces contain dry air. The window is placed in a specially developed test chamber at the Energy and Environmental Research Laboratory of Central Greece University of Applied Sciences at Chalkida. At one side of the test chamber variable temperature environment for different temperature waving scenarios (20-30°C, 25-35°C, 20-35°C) adequate for Greek climate and at the other side steady constant temperature environment (20°C, 25°C) representing indoors conditions were created. Glass surface temperatures at both sides of the tested window pane and heat flux through it were measured. For triple-glazing thermal transmittance calculation a model of equations in visual basic was developed which accounts for the equations of conduction, convection and radiation in every layer of window pane. A sufficient agreement between the experimental results and the results of the model is noticed.

  14. Wheat breadmaking properties in dependance on wheat enzymes status and climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Tomić, Jelena; Torbica, Aleksandra; Popović, Ljiljana; Hristov, Nikola; Nikolovski, Branislava

    2016-05-15

    The objective of this study was to evaluate albumins profile, proteolytic and amylolytic activity level and baking performance of wheat varieties grown in two production years with different climate conditions (2011 and 2012) in four locations. The results of ANOVA showed that variety, location, production year, and their interactions all had significant effects on all tested wheat quality parameters. The enzymatic activity and specific bread volume were mainly influenced by the variety. The samples from 2012 production year, had the lower values of albumin content, proteolytic and amylolytic activity, and bread specific volume. The correlation analysis, performed for 2011 production year, showed that albumin fraction (15-30 kDa) and proteolytic activity were negatively correlated with bread specific volume indicating the role of this fraction on lowering the crucial bread quality parameter. In 2012 production year, albumin fractions (5-15 kDa; 50-65 kDa) showed the most correlations, especially with parameters of bread quality. PMID:26776009

  15. Microbial biogeography of wine grapes is conditioned by cultivar, vintage, and climate.

    PubMed

    Bokulich, Nicholas A; Thorngate, John H; Richardson, Paul M; Mills, David A

    2014-01-01

    Wine grapes present a unique biogeography model, wherein microbial biodiversity patterns across viticultural zones not only answer questions of dispersal and community maintenance, they are also an inherent component of the quality, consumer acceptance, and economic appreciation of a culturally important food product. On their journey from the vineyard to the wine bottle, grapes are transformed to wine through microbial activity, with indisputable consequences for wine quality parameters. Wine grapes harbor a wide range of microbes originating from the surrounding environment, many of which are recognized for their role in grapevine health and wine quality. However, determinants of regional wine characteristics have not been identified, but are frequently assumed to stem from viticultural or geological factors alone. This study used a high-throughput, short-amplicon sequencing approach to demonstrate that regional, site-specific, and grape-variety factors shape the fungal and bacterial consortia inhabiting wine-grape surfaces. Furthermore, these microbial assemblages are correlated to specific climatic features, suggesting a link between vineyard environmental conditions and microbial inhabitation patterns. Taken together, these factors shape the unique microbial inputs to regional wine fermentations, posing the existence of nonrandom "microbial terroir" as a determining factor in regional variation among wine grapes. PMID:24277822

  16. Optimal Deployment of Thermal Energy Storage under Diverse Economic and Climate Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    DeForest, Nicolas; Mendes, Goncalo; Stadler, Michael; Feng, Wei; Lai, Judy; Marnay, Chris

    2014-04-15

    This paper presents an investigation of the economic benefit of thermal energy storage (TES) for cooling, across a range of economic and climate conditions. Chilled water TES systems are simulated for a large office building in four distinct locations, Miami in the U.S.; Lisbon, Portugal; Shanghai, China; and Mumbai, India. Optimal system size and operating schedules are determined using the optimization model DER-CAM, such that total cost, including electricity and amortized capital costs are minimized. The economic impacts of each optimized TES system is then compared to systems sized using a simple heuristic method, which bases system size as fraction (50percent and 100percent) of total on-peak summer cooling loads. Results indicate that TES systems of all sizes can be effective in reducing annual electricity costs (5percent-15percent) and peak electricity consumption (13percent-33percent). The investigation also indentifies a number of criteria which drive TES investment, including low capital costs, electricity tariffs with high power demand charges and prolonged cooling seasons. In locations where these drivers clearly exist, the heuristically sized systems capture much of the value of optimally sized systems; between 60percent and 100percent in terms of net present value. However, in instances where these drivers are less pronounced, the heuristic tends to oversize systems, and optimization becomes crucial to ensure economically beneficial deployment of TES, increasing the net present value of heuristically sized systems by as much as 10 times in some instances.

  17. Energy-Efficient Supermarket Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning in Humid Climates in the United States

    SciTech Connect

    Clark, J.

    2015-03-01

    Supermarkets are energy-intensive buildings that consume the greatest amount of electricity per square foot of building of any building type in the United States and represent 5% of total U.S. commercial building primary energy use (EIA 2005). Refrigeration and heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems are responsible for a large proportion of supermarkets’ total energy use. These two systems sometimes work together and sometimes compete, but the performance of one system always affects the performance of the other. To better understand these challenges and opportunities, the Commercial Buildings team at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory investigated several of the most promising strategies for providing energy-efficient HVAC for supermarkets and quantified the resulting energy use and costs using detailed simulations. This research effort was conducted on behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Commercial Building Partnerships (CBP) (Baechler et al. 2012; Parrish et al. 2013; Antonopoulos et al. 2014; Hirsch et al. 2014). The goal of CBP was to reduce energy use in the commercial building sector by creating, testing, and validating design concepts on the pathway to net zero energy commercial buildings. Several CBP partners owned or operated buildings containing supermarkets and were interested in optimizing the energy efficiency of supermarket HVAC systems in hot-humid climates. These partners included Walmart, Target, Whole Foods Market, SUPERVALU, and the Defense Commissary Agency.

  18. Sea-ice and North Atlantic climate response to CO2-induced warming and cooling conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nazarenko, Larissa; Tausnev, Nickolai; Hansen, James

    Using a global climate model coupled with an ocean and a sea-ice model, we compare the effects of doubling CO2 and halving CO2 on sea-ice cover and connections with the atmosphere and ocean. An overall warming in the 2 × CO2 experiment causes reduction of sea-ice extent by 15%, with maximum decrease in summer and autumn, consistent with observed seasonal sea-ice changes. The intensification of the Northern Hemisphere circulation is reflected in the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), associated with higher-than-normal surface pressure south of about 50° N and lower-than-normal surface pressure over the high northern latitudes. Strengthening the polar cell causes enhancement of westerlies around the Arctic perimeter during winter. Cooling, in the 0.5 × CO2 experiment, leads to thicker and more extensive sea ice. In the Southern Hemisphere, the increase in ice-covered area (28%) dominates the ice-thickness increase (5%) due to open ocean to the north. In the Northern Hemisphere, sea-ice cover increases by only 8% due to the enclosed land/sea configuration, but sea ice becomes much thicker (108%). Substantial weakening of the polar cell due to increase in sea-level pressure over polar latitudes leads to a negative trend of the winter AO index. The model reproduces large year-to-year variability under both cooling and warming conditions.

  19. Thermographic evaluation of climatic conditions on lambs from different genetic groups

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    do Prado Paim, Tiago; Borges, Bárbara Oliveira; de Mello Tavares Lima, Paulo; Gomes, Edgard Franco; Dallago, Bruno Stéfano Lima; Fadel, Rossala; de Menezes, Adriana Morato; Louvandini, Helder; Canozzi, Maria Eugênia Andrighetto; Barcellos, Júlio Otavio Jardim; McManus, Concepta

    2013-01-01

    In production systems the characterization of genetic resources in relation to their capacity to respond to environmental conditions is necessary. The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of infrared thermography for separation of animals from different genetic groups and determine which phenotypic traits are important for climatic adaptation. A total of 126 suckling lambs from four different genetic groups (Santa Inês - SI, Bergamasca - B, Bergamasca X Santa Inês - BS, and Ile de France X Santa Inês - IL) were used. The animals were divided into two groups, one housed and another in an outside paddock. Thermograph photographs were taken at four-hour intervals over three full days. Temperatures of the nose, skull, neck, fore and rear flanks and rump were measured, as well as coat depth, the density and length of hairs, reflectance and color. The daily temperature range during the experimental period was more than 20°C, with animals experiencing heat (12 h to 15 h) and cold (24 h to 4 h) stress. The three main phenotypic traits that influenced genetic group separation were hair density, height of coat, and length of hairs. Thermograph temperatures were able to detect different responses of the genetic groups to the environment. Therefore, infrared thermography is a promising technique to evaluate the response of animals to the environment and to differentiate between genetic groups.

  20. Microbial biogeography of wine grapes is conditioned by cultivar, vintage, and climate.

    PubMed

    Bokulich, Nicholas A; Thorngate, John H; Richardson, Paul M; Mills, David A

    2014-01-01

    Wine grapes present a unique biogeography model, wherein microbial biodiversity patterns across viticultural zones not only answer questions of dispersal and community maintenance, they are also an inherent component of the quality, consumer acceptance, and economic appreciation of a culturally important food product. On their journey from the vineyard to the wine bottle, grapes are transformed to wine through microbial activity, with indisputable consequences for wine quality parameters. Wine grapes harbor a wide range of microbes originating from the surrounding environment, many of which are recognized for their role in grapevine health and wine quality. However, determinants of regional wine characteristics have not been identified, but are frequently assumed to stem from viticultural or geological factors alone. This study used a high-throughput, short-amplicon sequencing approach to demonstrate that regional, site-specific, and grape-variety factors shape the fungal and bacterial consortia inhabiting wine-grape surfaces. Furthermore, these microbial assemblages are correlated to specific climatic features, suggesting a link between vineyard environmental conditions and microbial inhabitation patterns. Taken together, these factors shape the unique microbial inputs to regional wine fermentations, posing the existence of nonrandom "microbial terroir" as a determining factor in regional variation among wine grapes.

  1. Microbial biogeography of wine grapes is conditioned by cultivar, vintage, and climate

    PubMed Central

    Bokulich, Nicholas A.; Thorngate, John H.; Richardson, Paul M.; Mills, David A.

    2014-01-01

    Wine grapes present a unique biogeography model, wherein microbial biodiversity patterns across viticultural zones not only answer questions of dispersal and community maintenance, they are also an inherent component of the quality, consumer acceptance, and economic appreciation of a culturally important food product. On their journey from the vineyard to the wine bottle, grapes are transformed to wine through microbial activity, with indisputable consequences for wine quality parameters. Wine grapes harbor a wide range of microbes originating from the surrounding environment, many of which are recognized for their role in grapevine health and wine quality. However, determinants of regional wine characteristics have not been identified, but are frequently assumed to stem from viticultural or geological factors alone. This study used a high-throughput, short-amplicon sequencing approach to demonstrate that regional, site-specific, and grape-variety factors shape the fungal and bacterial consortia inhabiting wine-grape surfaces. Furthermore, these microbial assemblages are correlated to specific climatic features, suggesting a link between vineyard environmental conditions and microbial inhabitation patterns. Taken together, these factors shape the unique microbial inputs to regional wine fermentations, posing the existence of nonrandom “microbial terroir” as a determining factor in regional variation among wine grapes. PMID:24277822

  2. Influence of climatic conditions on white tip disease (Phytophthora porri) in leek (Allium porrum).

    PubMed

    De Jonghe, K; Keirsebilck, D; Martens, K; Buysens, S; Höfte, M

    2002-01-01

    In leek, one of the major vegetable crops in Belgium, Phytophthora porri causes the so-called white tip disease. During the growing seasons of 1999, 2000 and 2001 the incidence of the white tip disease and the role of environmental conditions in the appearance were investigated on several non-treated leek fields in Flanders (Belgium). The first symptoms of white tip disease on leek where recorded in July and the disease progressed until March. Lesions appeared after an incubation period of 91 to 204 DD (degree days above -3 degrees C) (t0) and were diagnostic at 120 DD. The obtained data confirmed a disease increase corresponding with an amount of rainfall of more than 20 l/m2 in 4 days in the period t = t0-92 to t = t0-154 DD. A good correlation was found between the daily disease increase on one hand and the leaf wetness, relative humidity and temperature (negative correlation) on the other hand. Daily disease increase only weakly correlated with rainfall. Based on these results recommendations can be made (for further studies) to develop a model, combining several of the climatic factors, to predict infection periods with high risk on disease increase in the production of leek. PMID:12701432

  3. Influence of climatic conditions on white tip disease (Phytophthora porri) in leek (Allium porrum).

    PubMed

    De Jonghe, K; Keirsebilck, D; Martens, K; Buysens, S; Höfte, M

    2002-01-01

    In leek, one of the major vegetable crops in Belgium, Phytophthora porri causes the so-called white tip disease. During the growing seasons of 1999, 2000 and 2001 the incidence of the white tip disease and the role of environmental conditions in the appearance were investigated on several non-treated leek fields in Flanders (Belgium). The first symptoms of white tip disease on leek where recorded in July and the disease progressed until March. Lesions appeared after an incubation period of 91 to 204 DD (degree days above -3 degrees C) (t0) and were diagnostic at 120 DD. The obtained data confirmed a disease increase corresponding with an amount of rainfall of more than 20 l/m2 in 4 days in the period t = t0-92 to t = t0-154 DD. A good correlation was found between the daily disease increase on one hand and the leaf wetness, relative humidity and temperature (negative correlation) on the other hand. Daily disease increase only weakly correlated with rainfall. Based on these results recommendations can be made (for further studies) to develop a model, combining several of the climatic factors, to predict infection periods with high risk on disease increase in the production of leek.

  4. Indoor pollution by organic emissions from textile floor coverings: Climate test chamber studies under static conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sollinger, S.; Levsen, K.; Wünsch, G.

    The emission of organic compounds from textile floor coverings was studied in a climate test chamber under static conditions (zero air exchange) in order to test the parameters which influence such chamber experiments, i.e. the temperature, the humidity and the adsorption on the walls. While depending on the volatility and the polarity of the compound, the equilibrium concentrations increase in part substantially with increasing temperature, the humidity has little impact on the observed concentrations. The chamber walls represent an important sink for polar and less volatile compounds, although this sink does not influence the equilibrium concentrations. Ten textile floor coverings have been tested (7 of which had a polyamide pile and a styrene-butadiene rubber backing). Ninety-nine compounds have been identified. The equilibrium concentrations of 20 compounds have been determined. These equilibrium concentrations do not depend on the sample size, the sample loading nor on wall effects, in contrast to the dynamic method, where these parameters play an important role.

  5. White willow sexual regeneration capacity under estuarine conditions in times of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Markus-Michalczyk, Heike; Hanelt, Dieter; Denstorf, Julian; Jensen, Kai

    2016-10-01

    Tidal wetlands provide both habitats for coastal populations and wildlife, and ecosystem services for human welfare. Building with nature regarding cost-effective coastal protection is of increasing interest. Much research has been carried out on plant reproduction capacities in mangroves and salt marshes, but less is known on this issue in tidal freshwater wetlands. Willows are being successfully used for bank stabilization in riverine habitats, however, today white willow softwood forests in tidal wetlands are highly fragmented, and restoration is required e.g. by the European Habitats Directive. Recently, tolerance to increasing salinity and tidal flooding was found for vegetative propagules of floodplain willows. However, the establishment of autochthonous sexual recruits is necessary to conserve the genetic diversity of local populations, and thus may be preferable in restoration. The germination and early seedling establishment of Salix alba (white willow) was experimentally studied under simulated estuarine conditions. The species tolerance to increasing salinity (0, 0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2) was tested in a climate chamber, and its tolerance to flooding at different tidal treatments (control, spring tide, daily tide 15 min and 2 h flooding) in the greenhouse. Germination was neither affected by increasing salinity nor by tidal flooding. Salix seedlings established up to salinity 1.5, but cotyledon performance and radicle growth was largely reduced at salinity 2. Under tidal flooding, seedling growth was similar in all treatments. However, in the treatments with daily tides seedling anchorage in the substrate took more than two weeks, and fewer seedlings reached a suitable length to approach the high water line. We assess S. alba sexual regeneration under estuarine conditions as generally possible. Further studies are needed on the effects of sedimentation-erosion processes on willow establishment in the field, especially on feedbacks between Salix survival and

  6. Thermal manipulation during embryogenesis improves certain semen parameters in layer breeder chicken during hot climatic conditions.

    PubMed

    Shanmugam, M; Vinoth, A; Rajaravindra, K S; Rajkumar, U

    2015-10-01

    Thermal manipulation during incubation has been shown to improve post hatch performance in poultry. The aim of the present experiment was to evaluate thermal manipulation on semen quality of roosters during hot climatic conditions. Eggs obtained after artificial insemination from Dahlem Red layer breeders were randomly divided into two groups control (C) and heat exposed (HE). C group eggs were incubated at 37.5°C throughout the incubation period while the HE group eggs were exposed to higher temperature 40.5°C from 15th to 17th day of incubation for 3h each day. The relative humidity was maintained at 65% in both the groups throughout incubation. The chicks hatched were reared separately under standard husbandry conditions. During high ambient temperature semen from roosters (45 weeks of age) was collected and evaluated for different gross parameters, sperm chromatin integrity and sperm HSP27 and HSP70 gene expression by real-time PCR. The seminal plasma was evaluated for lipid peroxidation, ferric ion reducing antioxidant power (FRAP), triiodothyronine (T3) and matrix metalloproteinase-2 (MMP-2) activity. The shed average Temperature Humidity Index (THI) during the experiment period was 78.55. The percent live sperm and FRAP level were significantly (P<0.05) higher and sperm gene expressions were significantly (P<0.05) lower in the HE group. No differences in other parameters were observed between the groups. Thus from the results it could be concluded that thermal manipulation during incubation improves certain semen parameters of roosters at high ambient temperature.

  7. Opportunities for improving leaf water use efficiency under climate change conditions.

    PubMed

    Gago, Jorge; Douthe, Cyril; Florez-Sarasa, Igor; Escalona, Jose M; Galmes, Jeroni; Fernie, Alisdair R; Flexas, Jaume; Medrano, Hipolito

    2014-09-01

    WUEi (intrinsic water use efficiency) is a complex (multi)-trait, that depends on several physiological processes, driving plant productivity and its relation with a changing environment. Climatic change predictions estimate increases in temperature and drought in the semi-arid regions, rendering improved water use efficiency is a mandatory objective to maintain the current global food supply. The aims of this review were (i) to identify through a meta-analysis the leaf traits mostly related to intrinsic water use efficiency (WUEi, the ratio between A - net photosynthesis and gs - stomatal conductance), based on a newly compiled dataset covering more than 200 species/varieties and 106 genus of C3 plants (ii) to describe the main potential targets for WUEi improvement via biotechnological manipulations and (iii) to introduce emergent and innovative technologies including UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) to scale up levels from leaf to whole plant water status. We confirmed that increases in gm/gs and Vcmax/gs ratios are systematically related with increases in WUEi maintained across species, habitats, and environmental conditions. Other emergent opportunities to improve WUEi are described such as the relationship between photosynthesis and respiration and their link with metabolomics. Finally, we outline our hypothesis that we are observing the advent of a "smart" agriculture, wherein new technologies, such as UAVs equipped with remote sensors will rapidly facilitate an efficient water use regulating the irrigation schedule and determination, under field conditions, of cultivars with improved water use efficiency. We, therefore, conclude that the multi-disciplinary challenge toward WUE has only just begun. PMID:25113456

  8. Millennial-scale climate variability in response to changing glacial and orbital boundary conditions during the Mid-Pleistocene transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferretti, Patrizia; Crowhurst, Simon; Drysdale, Russell; Bajo, Petra; Barbante, Carlo

    2016-04-01

    The Mid-Pleistocene transition represents perhaps the most important climate transition in the Quaternary period, yet it is one of the most poorly understood. Although the exact timing and mechanism of the onset of the "100 kyr" regime remain a matter of debate, it is well established that the overall periodicity of the glacial-interglacial cycles changed from a dominant 41 kyr obliquity periodicity prior to ~0.9 Ma to a dominant late Pleistocene 100 kyr variance. This change in the frequency domain was associated with an increase in the amplitude of global ice volume variations that, superimposed on a long-term climatic trend towards more glacial conditions over millions of years, produced some of the most extreme glaciations recorded. This interval of time has often been considered to be important in relation to long-term Milankovitch-scale climate variability. In contrast, here, special emphasis will be placed on assessing the presence and the characteristics of the suborbital-scale variability, and reconstructing the evolution of millennial-scale climate variability as the average climate state evolve toward generally colder conditions with larger ice sheets, and the spectral character of climate variability shifted from dominantly 41 kyr to 100 kyr. Appealing evidence suggests that millennial-scale climate variability is amplified during times of intense forcing changes, but this rapid variability has not been thoroughly explored yet at the time when the major changes in climate periodicity occurred. To address these questions, we have examined the record of climatic conditions from Marine Isotope Stages 25 to 16 (~970-650 ka) using high-resolution stable isotope records from benthic and planktonic foraminifera from a sedimentary sequence in the North Atlantic (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 306, Site U1313) in order to assess millennial-scale changes in sea-surface and deep-water conditions, the dynamics of thermohaline deep-water circulation

  9. DOE Final Report on Collaborative Research. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks of the Terrestrial Biosphere under Thawing Permafrost Conditions in the Arctic

    SciTech Connect

    Zhuang, Qianlai; Schlosser, C. Adam; Melillo, Jerry M.; Anthony, Katey Walter; Kicklighter, David; Gao, Xiang

    2015-11-03

    Our overall goal is to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically-forced climate warming, and the conditions under which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes to the landscape of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, across the Arctic. Through a suite of numerical experiments that encapsulate the fundamental processes governing methane emissions and carbon exchanges – as well as their coupling to the global climate system - we intend to test the following hypothesis in the proposed research: There exists a climate warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and stimulates large increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and poorly-drained wetland areas upon thawing permafrost along with microbial metabolic responses to higher temperatures) and increases in carbon dioxide emissions from well-drained areas. Besides changes in biogeochemistry, this threshold will also influence global energy dynamics through effects on surface albedo, evapotranspiration and water vapor. These changes would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands and higher plant photosynthesis) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.

  10. : “Developing Regional Modeling Techniques Applicable for Simulating Future Climate Conditions in the Carolinas”

    EPA Science Inventory

    Global climate models (GCMs) are currently used to obtain information about future changes in the large-scale climate. However, such simulations are typically done at coarse spatial resolutions, with model grid boxes on the order of 100 km on a horizontal side. Therefore, techniq...

  11. SIMULATING REGIONAL-SCALE AIR QUALITY WITH DYNAMIC CHANGES IN REGIONAL CLIMATE AND CHEMICAL BOUNDARY CONDITIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This poster compares air quality modeling simulations under current climate and a future (approximately 2050) climate scenario. Differences in predicted ozone episodes and daily average PM2.5 concentrations are presented, along with vertical ozone profiles. Modeling ...

  12. Evaluating the impact of demand-side management on water resources under changing climatic conditions and increasing population.

    PubMed

    Dawadi, Srijana; Ahmad, Sajjad

    2013-01-15

    This study investigated the effect of increasing population and changing climatic conditions on the water resources of a semi-arid region, the Las Vegas Valley (LVV) in southern Nevada. A system dynamics model was developed for the LVV from 1989 to 2035. The impact of climate change on water demand and the water supply from the Colorado River was modeled, using projections from 16 global climate models for 3 emission scenarios. Variability in water demand and supply under different scenarios of population growth and demand management, including water conservation and water pricing, was evaluated. With the population growth that was projected, if no further demand management policies were implemented, the LVV would not be able to meet the water demand in the near future. However, by combining water conservation and pricing policies, the available supply could last well into the future. The reduction in water demand in 2035 was predicted to be 327 million cubic meters (MCM) for 'status quo' population growth, or 30.6%; 408 MCM for 50% of the projected growth, or 38%; and 511 MCM for no population growth, or 47.8%. Water supply reliability decreased significantly with changing climatic conditions. Therefore, major challenges to water sustainability in the LVV would be due to rapid population growth as well as to climate variability. However, with the combination of reduced population growth rate and water conservation policies, the Colorado River supply could meet the future demand of the LVV most of the time.

  13. Do climatic conditions affect host and parasite phenotypes differentially? A case study of magpies and great spotted cuckoos.

    PubMed

    Soler, Juan J; De Neve, Liesbeth; Martín-Gálvez, David; Molina-Morales, Mercedes; Pérez-Contreras, Tomás; Ruiz-Rodríguez, Magdalena

    2014-02-01

    Climatic conditions, through their effects on resource availability, may affect important life history strategies and trade-offs in animals, as well as their interactions with other organisms such as parasites. This impact may depend on species-specific pathways of development that differ even among species with similar resource requirements (e.g., avian brood parasites and their hosts). Here we explore the degree of covariation between environmental-climatic conditions and nestling phenotypes (i.e., tarsus length, body mass, immune response to phytohemagglutinin injection) and ectoparasite loads of great spotted cuckoos (Clamator glandarius) and those of their magpie (Pica pica) hosts, both within and among 11 study years (1997-2011). Our main results were that (1) nestling phenotypes differed among years, but differently for great spotted cuckoos and magpies; (2) nestling phenotypes showed significant among-year covariation with breeding climatic conditions (temperature and precipitation); and (3) these associations differed for cuckoos and magpies for some phenotypic traits. As the average temperature at the beginning of the breeding season (April) increased, body mass and tarsus length increased only for cuckoos, but not for magpie hosts, while immune response decreased in both species. Finally, (4) the strength of the within-year relationships between the probability of ectoparasitism by Carnus hemapterus flies and laying date (used as an estimate of the within-year variation in climatic conditions) was negatively affected by the annual accumulated precipitation in April. These results strongly suggest that variation in climatic conditions would result in asymmetric effects on different species with respect to the probability of ectoparasitism, immunity and body size. Such asymmetric effects may affect animal interactions in general and those of brood parasites and their hosts in particular.

  14. Human thermal comfort conditions and urban planning in hot-humid climates-The case of Cuba.

    PubMed

    Rodríguez Algeciras, José Abel; Coch, Helena; De la Paz Pérez, Guillermo; Chaos Yeras, Mabel; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2016-08-01

    Climate regional characteristics, urban environmental conditions, and outdoors thermal comfort requirements of residents are important for urban planning. Basic studies of urban microclimate can provide information and useful resources to predict and improve thermal conditions in hot-humid climatic regions. The paper analyzes the thermal bioclimate and its influence as urban design factor in Cuba, using Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET). Simulations of wind speed variations and shade conditions were performed to quantify changes in thermal bioclimate due to possible modifications in urban morphology. Climate data from Havana, Camagüey, and Santiago of Cuba for the period 2001 to 2012 were used to calculate PET with the RayMan model. The results show that changes in meteorological parameters influence the urban microclimate, and consequently modify the thermal conditions in outdoors spaces. Shade is the predominant strategy to improve urban microclimate with more significant benefits in terms of PET higher than 30 °C. For climatic regions such as the analyzed ones, human thermal comfort can be improved by a wind speed modification for thresholds of PET above 30 °C, and by a wind speed decreases in conditions below 26 °C. The improvement of human thermal conditions is crucial for urban sustainability. On this regards, our study is a contribution for urban designers, due to the possibility of taking advantage of results for improving microclimatic conditions based on urban forms. The results may enable urban planners to create spaces that people prefer to visit, and also are usable in the reconfiguration of cities.

  15. The Isotopic Composition of Precipitation and of Groundwater Recharge in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea Area Under a Changing Climate: Considerations for the Evaluation of Paleo-Climate Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gat, J. R.

    2002-12-01

    Precipitation in the eastern Mediterranean Sea region is characterized by a singular isotopic composition with a large deuterium excess, which is the result of the strong temperature contrast between the European air masses and the Mediterranean waters during the winter months under the present climate regime. Under the semi-arid and arid conditions of the Middle East this input signal is further modified during the transition into the hydrological systems, due to the strong evaporative component in the water balance. The factors which determine the isotope composition of the precipitation in the eastern Mediterranean Sea area will be reviewed, starting from synoptic history of the air masses concerned, the air-sea interaction process at the source areas of the atmospheric moisture, the water balance in the air masses during their trajectory and the rain forming processes as well as the local conditions which result in the changes of the ISOTOPE TRANSFER FUNCTION (the ITF), i.e. the change of the isotope composition during the transition from the precipitation input to the related hydrological systems. The observed changes in the isotope composition of the local precipitation during 40 years of measurements as a function of rain amounts and drought periods will also be reported. Based on this information, an attempt will be made to estimate the expected changes in the isotope composition of the precipitation and of the ITF in this region as a function of the global climate changes and thus specify the reliability of the paleo-climatic reconstructions in the region.

  16. Role of the tissue free amino acids in adaptation of medicinal leeches Hirudo medicinalis L., 1758 to extreme climatic conditions.

    PubMed

    Chernaya, L V; Kovalchuk, L A; Nokhrina, E S

    2016-01-01

    The first comparison of the spectra of free amino acids in tissues of the medicinal leeches H. medicinalis from different climatic and geographical Eurasian areas has been performed. Adaptation of H. medicinalis to extreme climatic conditions occurs via intensification of the amino acid metabolism resulting from a significant increase in the content of essential amino acids. Accumulation of arginine, histidine, and lysine (3.6-, 3.9-, and 2.0-fold increases, respectively) has proved to play a special protective role in adaptation of H. medicinalis to the low positive temperatures.

  17. Vaccine Adverse Events

    MedlinePlus

    ... Vaccines, Blood & Biologics Animal & Veterinary Cosmetics Tobacco Products Vaccines, Blood & Biologics Home Vaccines, Blood & Biologics Safety & Availability ( ... Center for Biologics Evaluation & Research Vaccine Adverse Events Vaccine Adverse Events Share Tweet Linkedin Pin it More ...

  18. A climate sensitivity test using a global cloud resolving model under an aqua planet condition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miura, Hiroaki; Tomita, Hirofumi; Nasuno, Tomoe; Iga, Shin-ichi; Satoh, Masaki; Matsuno, Taroh

    2005-10-01

    A global Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) is used in a climate sensitivity test for an aqua planet in this first attempt to evaluate climate sensitivity without cumulus parameterizations. Results from a control experiment and an experiment with global sea surface temperature (SST) warmer by 2 K are examined. Notable features in the simulation with warmer SST include a wider region of active convection, a weaker Hadley circulation, mid-tropospheric moistening in the subtropics, and more clouds in the extratropics. Negative feedback from short-wave radiation reduces the climate sensitivity parameter compared to a result in a more conventional model with a cumulus parameterization.

  19. Analysis of spatial patterns in near surface micro climatic conditions within Delhi Metropolitan Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roy, S. S.

    2008-12-01

    Over the last few decades there have been increasing awareness about Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect observed in particular large urban metropolitan regions. The most predominant characteristic of UHI is a warmer surface temperature across urban areas. Importantly, studies on UHI in the more densely populated and developing parts of Asia are rare. In this context, Delhi Metropolitan Region (DMR) is an excellent case study to explore the development of UHI, as it typifies an Asian mega city with a rapidly increasing population and associated anthropogenic effects on the urban environment. The impact of the UHI can also be traced to increased incidences of heat wave-related deaths and cardiovascular diseases. Some of the major determining factors of UHI development are the nature of land cover, size and urban morphology, population, and radiative property of the construction material broadly determine the spatial patterns of UHI occurrence. In order to determine the spatial pattern of local micro level variations in environmental factors on the prevailing climatic conditions, a set of 10 temporary weather stations were setup in different parts of the DMR for a one year period from June 2007 to July 2008. These stations recorded the air and dew point temperature, and relative humidity at hourly interval during the study period. The results of the analyses of the observed field data indicate substantial differences in the spatial patterns of variables under study, which were directly related to the prevailing land use and land cover. In the case of some of the sites there was an average time lag of approximately 2 hours for the time of maximum for both maximum and minimum temperatures. One of the sites, which were located in a less densely built-up area, with more parks and gardens surrounding it, recorded lower average temperatures.

  20. Monitoring present day climatic conditions in tropical caves using an Environmental Data Acquisition System (EDAS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sondag, Francis; van Ruymbeke, Michel; Soubiès, François; Santos, Roberto; Somerhausen, André; Seidel, Alexandre; Boggiani, Paulo

    2003-03-01

    This paper presents data from automatic stations which have been installed for monitoring climatic parameters in caves in two areas of Brazil. These devices, initially developed at the Royal Observatory of Belgium to monitor environmental parameters in geophysical observatories, were adapted in our study to operate under tropical cave conditions and to measure temperature, atmospheric pressure and drip rate of stalactites. Similar devices were installed at the surface near to the caves to measure air temperature, atmospheric pressure and rainfall. The results reveal that the drip rate at the tip of stalactites is related to the effective rainfall (water excess). The stable drip regime observed during the dry season seems to be reproducible from one year to the other and could be related to the infiltration of water which has a long residence time in the aquifer. Regular pressure oscillations, with amplitude ranging between 1 and 2 mb, are observed in both of the monitored caves. Spectral analysis of the data suggests that these oscillations are linked to the diurnal and semi-diurnal solar tides (S1 and S2). In one cave, very small temperature variations (0.02-0.05 °C) are also observed with a similar diurnal and semi-diurnal pattern, and we argue that the generating process of the thermal components of the S1 and S2 frequencies is a mixture of thermal convection produced by the surface meteorological variations and of an adiabatic induction of the S2 atmospheric pressure modulation. A very large annual thermal amplitude (13 °C) is observed in the other cave; this is a great motivation to study the stable isotope geochemistry of its speleothems as they probably have recorded past temperature fluctuations linked to paleoclimate variations in this area of south-western Brazil.

  1. The role of vegetation for tropospheric ozone balance: possible changes under future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Cheng; Pullinen, Iida; Andres, Stefanie; Carriero, Giulia; Fares, Silvano; Hacker, Lina; Kiendler-Scharr, Astrid; Kleist, Einhard; Paoletti, Elena; Wahner, Andreas; Wildt, Jürgen; Mentel, Thomas F.

    2015-04-01

    Ozone (O3) is a phytotoxic trace gas in the troposphere where it is photochemically produced from volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). The dominant sink of O3 in the air over areas with dense plant cover is dry deposition on plant surfaces. However, plants can also contribute to photochemical O3 formation because they emit biogenic VOCs (BVOCs). In this study, the role of vegetation for tropospheric ozone balance was investigated by considering the following processes: O3 depletion by dry deposition on plant surfaces, O3 depletion by gas phase reactions with plant emitted BVOCs, and photochemical O3 production from these BVOCs. Furthermore, drought and heat stress were applied to the plants, and the stress-induced changes of plant performance and the subsequent changes regarding the tropospheric ozone balance were investigated. Dry deposition of O3 in unstressed plants was dominated by O3 uptake through the plants stomata with negligible losses on cuticle and stem. For strong BVOC emitters, O3 destruction by gas phase reactions with BVOCs was significant at low NOx conditions. Switching from low NOx to high NOx conditions led to O3 production. A ratio of O3 formation rates over BVOC loss rates was measured for α-pinene as single BVOC and for BVOC mixtures emitted from real plants. For O3 formation under BVOC limited conditions, this ratio was in the range of 2-3 ppb/ppb. The ratio of O3 uptake/BVOC emission reflects the capability of a plant as a potential source of O3, while NOx concentrations and the BVOC/NOx ratio determine whether the emitted BVOCs act as an additional sink or a source of O3. O3 uptake rates and BVOC emission rates are affected by environmental variables such as temperature, light intensity and stresses to plants. The impacts of these variables on the two processes are different and thus the capability of a plant to be a source of O3 is also affected. As future climate change will bring more and intense heat waves and

  2. Vegetation types and climate conditions reflected by the modern phytolith assemblages in the subalpine Dalaoling Forest Reserve, central China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Traoré, Djakanibé Désiré; Gu, Yansheng; Liu, Humei; Shemsanga, Ceven; Ge, Jiwen

    2015-06-01

    This research describes modern phytolith records and distributions from subalpine surface soils in the Dalaoling Forest Reserve, and reveals its implications for local climate conditions with respect to the altitude gradient. Well-preserved phytolith morpho-types, assemblages, and climatic indices were used to study the relationship between local vegetation and climate conditions. The phytolith classification system is mainly based on the characteristics of detailed morpho-types described for anatomical terms, which are divided into seven groups: long cells, short cells, bulliform cells, hair cells, pteridophyte type, broad-leaved type, and gymnosperm type. Phytoliths originating from the Poaceae are composed of Pooideae (rondel and trapeziform), Panicoideae (bilobate, cross, and polylobate), Chloridoideae (short/square saddle), and Bambusoideae (oblong concave saddle). Based on the altitudinal distribution of the phytolith assemblages and the indices of aridity (Iph), climate (Ic), and tree cover density (D/P), five phytolith assemblage zones have revealed the five types of climatic conditions ranging from 1,169 m to 2,005 m in turn: warm-wet, warm-xeric to warm-mesic, warm-xeric to cool-mesic, cool-xeric, and cool-mesic to cool-xeric. The Bambusoideae, Panicoideae, and Chloridoideae are the dominant vegetation at the lower-middle of the mountains, while Pooideae is mainly distributed in the higher mountains. The close relationship between phytolith assembleages and changes of altitude gradient suggest that vegetation distribution patterns and plant ecology in the Dalaoling mountains are controlled by temperature and humidity conditions. Our results highlight the importance of phytolith records as reliable ecoclimatic indicators for vegetation ecology in subtropical regions.

  3. Migration, neighborhoods, and networks: approaches to understanding how urban environmental conditions affect syndemic adverse health outcomes among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men.

    PubMed

    Egan, James E; Frye, Victoria; Kurtz, Steven P; Latkin, Carl; Chen, Minxing; Tobin, Karin; Yang, Cui; Koblin, Beryl A

    2011-04-01

    Adopting socioecological, intersectionality, and lifecourse theoretical frameworks may enhance our understanding of the production of syndemic adverse health outcomes among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (MSM). From this perspective, we present preliminary data from three related studies that suggest ways in which social contexts may influence the health of MSM. The first study, using cross-sectional data, looked at migration of MSM to the gay resort area of South Florida, and found that amount of time lived in the area was associated with risk behaviors and HIV infection. The second study, using qualitative interviews, observed complex interactions between neighborhood-level social environments and individual-level racial and sexual identity among MSM in New York City. The third study, using egocentric network analysis with a sample of African American MSM in Baltimore, found that sexual partners were more likely to be found through face-to-face means than the Internet. They also observed that those who co-resided with a sex partner had larger networks of people to depend on for social and financial support, but had the same size sexual networks as those who did not live with a partner. Overall, these findings suggest the need for further investigation into the role of macro-level social forces on the emotional, behavioral, and physical health of urban MSM.

  4. Migration, Neighborhoods, and Networks: Approaches to Understanding How Urban Environmental Conditions Affect Syndemic Adverse Health Outcomes Among Gay, Bisexual and Other Men Who Have Sex with Men

    PubMed Central

    Egan, James E.; Kurtz, Steven P.; Latkin, Carl; Chen, Minxing; Tobin, Karin; Yang, Cui; Koblin, Beryl A.

    2011-01-01

    Adopting socioecological, intersectionality, and lifecourse theoretical frameworks may enhance our understanding of the production of syndemic adverse health outcomes among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (MSM). From this perspective, we present preliminary data from three related studies that suggest ways in which social contexts may influence the health of MSM. The first study, using cross-sectional data, looked at migration of MSM to the gay resort area of South Florida, and found that amount of time lived in the area was associated with risk behaviors and HIV infection. The second study, using qualitative interviews, observed complex interactions between neighborhood-level social environments and individual-level racial and sexual identity among MSM in New York City. The third study, using egocentric network analysis with a sample of African American MSM in Baltimore, found that sexual partners were more likely to be found through face-to-face means than the Internet. They also observed that those who co-resided with a sex partner had larger networks of people to depend on for social and financial support, but had the same size sexual networks as those who did not live with a partner. Overall, these findings suggest the need for further investigation into the role of macro-level social forces on the emotional, behavioral, and physical health of urban MSM. PMID:21369730

  5. Migration, neighborhoods, and networks: approaches to understanding how urban environmental conditions affect syndemic adverse health outcomes among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men.

    PubMed

    Egan, James E; Frye, Victoria; Kurtz, Steven P; Latkin, Carl; Chen, Minxing; Tobin, Karin; Yang, Cui; Koblin, Beryl A

    2011-04-01

    Adopting socioecological, intersectionality, and lifecourse theoretical frameworks may enhance our understanding of the production of syndemic adverse health outcomes among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (MSM). From this perspective, we present preliminary data from three related studies that suggest ways in which social contexts may influence the health of MSM. The first study, using cross-sectional data, looked at migration of MSM to the gay resort area of South Florida, and found that amount of time lived in the area was associated with risk behaviors and HIV infection. The second study, using qualitative interviews, observed complex interactions between neighborhood-level social environments and individual-level racial and sexual identity among MSM in New York City. The third study, using egocentric network analysis with a sample of African American MSM in Baltimore, found that sexual partners were more likely to be found through face-to-face means than the Internet. They also observed that those who co-resided with a sex partner had larger networks of people to depend on for social and financial support, but had the same size sexual networks as those who did not live with a partner. Overall, these findings suggest the need for further investigation into the role of macro-level social forces on the emotional, behavioral, and physical health of urban MSM. PMID:21369730

  6. Interpopulational Variations in Sexual Chemical Signals of Iberian Wall Lizards May Allow Maximizing Signal Efficiency under Different Climatic Conditions

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Sexual signals used in intraspecific communication are expected to evolve to maximize efficacy under a given climatic condition. Thus, chemical secretions of lizards might evolve in the evolutionary time to ensure that signals are perfectly tuned to local humidity and temperature conditions affecting their volatility and therefore their persistence and transmission through the environment. We tested experimentally whether interpopulational altitudinal differences in chemical composition of femoral gland secretions of male Iberian wall lizards (Podarcis hispanicus) have evolved to maximize efficacy of chemical signals in different environmental conditions. Chemical analyses first showed that the characteristics of chemical signals of male lizards differed between two populations inhabiting environments with different climatic conditions in spite of the fact that these two populations are closely related genetically. We also examined experimentally whether the temporal attenuation of the chemical stimuli depended on simulated climatic conditions. Thus, we used tongue-flick essays to test whether female lizards were able to detect male scent marks maintained under different conditions of temperature and humidity by chemosensory cues alone. Chemosensory tests showed that chemical signals of males had a lower efficacy (i.e. detectability and persistence) when temperature and dryness increase, but that these effects were more detrimental for signals of the highest elevation population, which occupies naturally colder and more humid environments. We suggest that the abiotic environment may cause a selective pressure on the form and expression of sexual chemical signals. Therefore, interpopulational differences in chemical profiles of femoral secretions of male P. hispanicus lizards may reflect adaptation to maximize the efficacy of the chemical signal in different climates. PMID:26121693

  7. Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Atmospheric Predictors: Improved Assessment of Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonis; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino

    2015-04-01

    To improve the level skill of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistics of rainfall at a basin level and at hydrologically relevant temporal scales (e.g. daily), two types of statistical approaches have been suggested. One is the statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs using historical series of precipitation. The other is the use of stochastic models of rainfall to conditionally simulate precipitation series, based on large-scale atmospheric predictors produced by climate models (e.g. geopotential height, relative vorticity, divergence, mean sea level pressure). The latter approach, usually referred to as statistical rainfall downscaling, aims at reproducing the statistical character of rainfall, while accounting for the effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation (and, therefore, climate forcing) on rainfall statistics. While promising, statistical rainfall downscaling has not attracted much attention in recent years, since the suggested approaches involved complex (i.e. subjective or computationally intense) identification procedures of the local weather, in addition to demonstrating limited success in reproducing several statistical features of rainfall, such as seasonal variations, the distributions of dry and wet spell lengths, the distribution of the mean rainfall intensity inside wet periods, and the distribution of rainfall extremes. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings, Langousis and Kaleris (2014) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables, which accurately reproduces the statistical character of rainfall at multiple time-scales. Here, we study the relative performance of: a) quantile-quantile (Q-Q) correction of climate model rainfall products, and b) the statistical downscaling scheme of Langousis and Kaleris (2014), in reproducing the statistical structure of rainfall, as well as rainfall extremes, at a

  8. Reverse Engineering Adverse Outcome Pathways

    SciTech Connect

    Perkins, Edward; Chipman, J.K.; Edwards, Stephen; Habib, Tanwir; Falciani, Francesco; Taylor, Ronald C.; Van Aggelen, Graham; Vulpe, Chris; Antczak, Philipp; Loguinov, Alexandre

    2011-01-30

    The toxicological effects of many stressors are mediated through unknown, or poorly characterized, mechanisms of action. We describe the application of reverse engineering complex interaction networks from high dimensional omics data (gene, protein, metabolic, signaling) to characterize adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) for chemicals that disrupt the hypothalamus-pituitary-gonadal endocrine axis in fathead minnows. Gene expression changes in fathead minnow ovaries in response to 7 different chemicals, over different times, doses, and in vivo versus in vitro conditions were captured in a large data set of 868 arrays. We examined potential AOPs of the antiandrogen flutamide using two mutual information theory methods, ARACNE and CLR to infer gene regulatory networks and potential adverse outcome pathways. Representative networks from these studies were used to predict a network path from stressor to adverse outcome as a candidate AOP. The relationship of individual chemicals to an adverse outcome can be determined by following perturbations through the network in response to chemical treatment leading to the nodes associated with the adverse outcome. Identification of candidate pathways allows for formation of testable hypotheses about key biologic processes, biomarkers or alternative endpoints, which could be used to monitor an adverse outcome pathway. Finally, we identify the unique challenges facing the application of this approach in ecotoxicology, and attempt to provide a road map for the utilization of these tools. Key Words: mechanism of action, toxicology, microarray, network inference

  9. Seasonal activity patterns of Ixodes pacificus nymphs in relation to climatic conditions.

    PubMed

    Eisen, L; Eisen, R J; Lane, R S

    2002-09-01

    In western North America, the tick Ixodes pacificus Cooley & Kohls (Acari: Ixodidae) is the primary vector to humans and domestic animals of the disease agents causing Lyme disease and granulocytic ehrlichiosis. We examined the seasonal activity patterns of I. pacificus nymphs over a 4-year period, including the wet and cold El Niño winter/spring of 1998, in a dry oak/madrone woodland, and for one year in a cooler and moister redwood/tanoak woodland in Mendocino County, California. Linear regressions were used to estimate when nymphal densities first exceeded and then fell below 25, 50 and 75% of the recorded yearly peak densities. In oak/madrone woodland, nymphs typically were active by mid-March, reached 50% of their yearly peak densities in early to mid-April, peaked by early May, fell below 50% of their peak densities by early to mid-June, and were absent by late July to mid-August. The lengths of the periods with nymphal densities exceeding 50 and 75% of the recorded yearly peaks in oak/madrone woodland were associated positively with rainfall and negatively with maximum air temperatures during April-May. Moreover, nymphal numbers typically reached 50% of their peak 10-15 days later, remained at levels above 50% of the peak 1.3-1.5 times longer, and started declining 4-6 weeks later under cooler, moister climatic conditions (oak/madrone woodland in 1998 and redwood/tanoak woodland in 2000) relative to warmer, drier conditions (oak/madrone woodland in 2000-2001). In oak/madrone woodland, nymphal densities typically started to decline when mean maximum daily air temperatures exceeded 23 degrees C. Nymphal densities were higher in dry oak/madrone relative to moist redwood/tanoak woodland from mid-March to late May 2000, similar in both habitat types in early June, but higher in redwood/tanoak woodland from late June onwards. We conclude that large-scale studies of the density of I. pacificus nymphs in California need to consider spatial variation in the length

  10. Evaluation of Foamseal ceiling panels in the large scale climate simulator under winder conditions. Phase I

    SciTech Connect

    Wilkes, K.E.; Childs, P.W.

    1991-11-01

    This report serves to document Phase I of tests on ceiling panels fabricated by Foamseal Urethane Technology, Inc. in the Large Scale Climate Simulator (LSCS). The work reported here was accomplished during August, 1991.

  11. Certain questions of the acclimatization of construction workers to the conditions of a subtropical climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Babayev, A.

    1979-01-01

    The period of active acclimatization was determined for construction workers coming into a subtropical climate. Changes were observed in metabolic processes, oxygen needs, pulse rate, arterial pressure, body and skin temperature, body weight, water consumption and loss, and the comfort zone of heat sensitivity. It was concluded that acclimatization is facilitated if introduction to the hot climate occurs in the mild cool season, rather than the summer. This also prevents heat prostration and improves the development of adaptive mechanisms.

  12. Sustainability of water resources management in the Indus Basin under changing climatic and socio economic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Archer, D. R.; Forsythe, N.; Fowler, H. J.; Shah, S. M.

    2010-08-01

    Pakistan is highly dependent on water resources originating in the mountain sources of the upper Indus for irrigated agriculture which is the mainstay of its economy. Hence any change in available resources through climate change or socio-economic factors could have a serious impact on food security and the environment. In terms of both ratio of withdrawals to runoff and per-capita water availability, Pakistan's water resources are already highly stressed and will become increasingly so with projected population changes. Potential changes to supply through declining reservoir storage, the impact of waterlogging and salinity or over-abstraction of groundwater, or reallocations for environmental remediation of the Indus Delta or to meet domestic demands, will reduce water availability for irrigation. The impact of climate change on resources in the Upper Indus is considered in terms of three hydrological regimes - a nival regime dependent on melting of winter snow, a glacial regime, and a rainfall regime dependent on concurrent rainfall. On the basis of historic trends in climate, most notably the decline in summer temperatures, there is no strong evidence in favour of marked reductions in water resources from any of the three regimes. Evidence for changes in trans-Himalayan glacier mass balance is mixed. Sustainability of water resources appears more threatened by socio-economic changes than by climatic trends. Nevertheless, analysis and the understanding of the linkage of climate, glaciology and runoff is still far from complete; recent past climate experience may not provide a reliable guide to the future.

  13. Sustainability of water resources management in the Indus Basin under changing climatic and socio economic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Archer, D. R.; Forsythe, N.; Fowler, H. J.; Shah, S. M.

    2010-03-01

    Pakistan is highly dependent on water resources originating in the mountain sources of the upper Indus for irrigated agriculture which is the mainstay of its economy. Hence any change in available resources through climate change or socio-economic factors could have a serious impact on food security and the environment. In terms of both ratio of withdrawals to runoff and per-capita water availability, Pakistan's water resources are already highly stressed and will become increasingly so with projected population changes. Potential changes to supply through declining reservoir storage, the impact of waterlogging and salinity or over-abstraction of groundwater, or reallocations for environmental remediation of the Indus Delta or to meet domestic demands, will reduce water availability for irrigation. The impact of climate change on resources in the Upper Indus is considered in terms of three hydrological regimes - a nival regime dependent on melting of winter snow, a glacial regime, and a rainfall regime dependent on concurrent rainfall. On the basis of historic trends in climate, most notably the decline in summer temperatures, there is no strong evidence in favour of marked reductions in water resources from any of the three regimes. Evidence for changes in trans-Himalayan glacier mass balance is mixed. Sustainability of water resources appears more threatened by socio-economic changes than by climatic trends. Nevertheless, analysis and the understanding of the linkage of climate, glaciology and runoff is still far from complete; recent past climate experience may not provide a reliable guide to the future.

  14. Prediction of soil and ground water contamination with fungicides of different classes according to soil and climate conditions in Ukrain and other European countries.

    PubMed

    Vavrinevych, O; Antonenko, A; Omelchuk, S; Korshun, M; Bardov, V

    2015-05-01

    It was established that most of tested pesticides are moderately and low persistent in soil and climatic conditions of Ukraine, but more stable in Western and Northern Europe countries due to peculiarities of their climate type and soil characteristics. In addition, it was determined that all studied fungicides pertain to non- and low mobile compound (except moderately mobile pyrimethanil). Recommendations on application of studied fungicides in soil and climatic conditions of Ukraine and other European countries were given. PMID:26042452

  15. Prediction of soil and ground water contamination with fungicides of different classes according to soil and climate conditions in Ukrain and other European countries.

    PubMed

    Vavrinevych, O; Antonenko, A; Omelchuk, S; Korshun, M; Bardov, V

    2015-05-01

    It was established that most of tested pesticides are moderately and low persistent in soil and climatic conditions of Ukraine, but more stable in Western and Northern Europe countries due to peculiarities of their climate type and soil characteristics. In addition, it was determined that all studied fungicides pertain to non- and low mobile compound (except moderately mobile pyrimethanil). Recommendations on application of studied fungicides in soil and climatic conditions of Ukraine and other European countries were given.

  16. Catchment scale modelling of changes in pesticide leaching under present and future climate conditions. Demonstrated for two cases in Denmark

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Keur, P.; Henriksen, H.; Sonnenborg, T.; van Roosmalen, L.; Rosenbom, A. E.; Olesen, J. E.; Kjaer, J.; Jørgensen, L. N.; Christensen, O. B.

    2011-12-01

    A catchment scale model MACRO-MIKE SHE is applied for simulating changes in pesticide concentrations to the aquatic environment. The MACRO model is used to model the effect of changes in climate and pesticide management on pesticide leaching from the unsaturated zone and simulated percolation as well as solute flow is propagated to the MIKE SHE model. The intensity based bias correction method for converting from Regional Climate Modelling data to hydrological input data is the most appropriate method as it best reflects changes in rainfall intensity, and thus also in intensity for MACRO simulated percolation and solute flow. Results show that increased percolation simulated by the MACRO model and propagated to the MIKE SHE model nearly all ends up in increased drainage to the river. Further, pesticide solute entering the saturated zone (SZ) is mainly leaving SZ via drainage (85-94%), base flow (3.8-11.3%) and overland flow (0-3.1 %). Mean concentrations in groundwater (SZ) increase by 30-99% for one type of herbicide under future climatic conditions, whereas mean concentrations decrease for two other types by app. 93 and 91 % respectively. Future climatic conditions lead to higher concentrations in surface water for the first type of herbicides, but to decreased concentrations for the another type of herbicide and insecticide. It is overall concluded that an integrated catchment scale modeling approach is essential for pesticide fate simulation taking account of all possible hydrologic pathways.

  17. Different effects of an extended photoperiod treatment on growth, gonadal function, and condition of hair coats in Thoroughbred yearlings reared under different climate conditions

    PubMed Central

    SUZUKI, Tsuyoshi; MIZUKAMI, Hirotoshi; NAMBO, Yasuo; ISHIMARU, Mutsuki; MIYATA, Kenji; AKIYAMA, Kentaro; KOROSUE, Kenji; NAITO, Hiroshi; NAGAOKA, Kentaro; WATANABE, Gen; TAYA, Kazuyoshi

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT One- to two-year-old Thoroughbred colts and fillies being reared in Miyazaki (warm climate) and Hidaka (cold climate), Japan, were administered extended photoperiod (EP) treatment between December 20 and the following April 10, and its effect on growth, endocrine changes, gonadal activation, and hair coat condition was investigated. In colts reared in Miyazaki, no effect of EP treatment was noted on the growth indices, including body weight (BW), height at withers (HW), girth, and cannon circumference (CC), whereas the BWs and CCs of fillies were significantly higher in the EP treatment group than the control. In Hidaka, the BWs and HWs of colts and HWs of fillies were significantly higher in the EP treatment group. Gonadal activation characterized by an increase in circulating hormone concentrations was earlier in the EP treatment group for fillies reared in Miyazaki [luteinizing hormone (LH), follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), progesterone (P4), and estradiol-17β (E2)] and in colts (LH, testosterone, and E2) and fillies (LH, FSH, P4, and E2) reared in Hidaka. Regardless of sex and climate, prolactin was significantly higher in the EP treatment group, whereas insulin-like growth factor (IGF-I) was not. Initial ovulation occurred before April in more of the EP treatment group than the control regardless of the climate. Molting of the hair coat, examined in March, was advanced in the EP treatment group regardless of sex and climate. These results suggest that EP treatment may promote growth and gonadal activation in fillies reared in Miyazaki and in colts and fillies reared in Hidaka and that the effect may be mediated by prolactin. PMID:26858576

  18. Seasonal variability of hydro-physical conditions in Faxinal system subtropical climate in southern Brazil.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antoneli, Valdemir; Thomaz, Edivaldo; Berdnaz, João

    2015-04-01

    , and 46.1 cm / h in Native Forest. The infiltration in the secondary forest in January was of 32.3 cm / h (29.9% higher than in August). The pasture indicated infiltration of 12.8 cm / h (32.9% lower) and 49.2 cm / h native forest (6.3% higher). Soil compaction in August was of 2.9 kgf / cm2 in the secondary forest, 3.7 kgf / cm2 in the pasture, and 1.4 kgf / cm2 in the Native Forest. In January, compression was of 2.1 in Secondary Forest (27.6% less than in August), 4.0 kgf / cm2 in the pasture (7.5% higher) and 1.3 kgf / cm2 in the native Forest (7.1% lower). These variations may be associated to the climatic conditions which cause some frost in winter promoting greater mobilization of animals looking for food in secondary forest areas due to reduced pasture. The springs from the pasture in summer enhances the time animals stay in the pasture areas. The influence of animals on hydrogeomorphic conditions in faxinal areas was evident, especially when comparing the data from the two areas with the ones indicated by the Native Forest.

  19. Severe loss of suitable climatic conditions for marsupial species in Brazil: challenges and opportunities for conservation.

    PubMed

    Loyola, Rafael D; Lemes, Priscila; Faleiro, Frederico V; Trindade-Filho, Joaquim; Machado, Ricardo B

    2012-01-01

    A wide range of evidences indicate climate change as one the greatest threats to biodiversity in the 21st century. The impacts of these changes, which may have already resulted in several recent species extinction, are species-specific and produce shifts in species phenology, ecological interactions, and geographical distributions. Here we used cutting-edge methods of species distribution models combining thousands of model projections to generate a complete and comprehensive ensemble of forecasts that shows the likely impacts of climate change in the distribution of all 55 marsupial species that occur in Brazil. Consensus projections forecasted range shifts that culminate with high species richness in the southeast of Brazil, both for the current time and for 2050. Most species had a significant range contraction and lost climate space. Turnover rates were relatively high, but vary across the country. We also mapped sites retaining climatic suitability. They can be found in all Brazilian biomes, especially in the pampas region, in the southern part of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, in the north of the Cerrado and Caatinga, and in the northwest of the Amazon. Our results provide a general overview on the likely effects of global climate change on the distribution of marsupials in the country as well as in the patterns of species richness and turnover found in regional marsupial assemblages.

  20. Severe Loss of Suitable Climatic Conditions for Marsupial Species in Brazil: Challenges and Opportunities for Conservation

    PubMed Central

    Loyola, Rafael D.; Lemes, Priscila; Faleiro, Frederico V.; Trindade-Filho, Joaquim; Machado, Ricardo B.

    2012-01-01

    A wide range of evidences indicate climate change as one the greatest threats to biodiversity in the 21st century. The impacts of these changes, which may have already resulted in several recent species extinction, are species-specific and produce shifts in species phenology, ecological interactions, and geographical distributions. Here we used cutting-edge methods of species distribution models combining thousands of model projections to generate a complete and comprehensive ensemble of forecasts that shows the likely impacts of climate change in the distribution of all 55 marsupial species that occur in Brazil. Consensus projections forecasted range shifts that culminate with high species richness in the southeast of Brazil, both for the current time and for 2050. Most species had a significant range contraction and lost climate space. Turnover rates were relatively high, but vary across the country. We also mapped sites retaining climatic suitability. They can be found in all Brazilian biomes, especially in the pampas region, in the southern part of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, in the north of the Cerrado and Caatinga, and in the northwest of the Amazon. Our results provide a general overview on the likely effects of global climate change on the distribution of marsupials in the country as well as in the patterns of species richness and turnover found in regional marsupial assemblages. PMID:23029452

  1. Computations on frost damage to Scots pine under climatic warming in boreal conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Kellomaeki, S.; Haenninen, H.; Kolstroem, M.

    1995-02-01

    To investigate the risk of frost damage to Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in northern regions under climatic warming, a submodel for such damage to trees was included in a forest ecosystem model of the gap type. An annual growth multiplier describing the effects of frost was calculated with the help of simulated daily frost hardiness and daily minimum temperature. The annual growth multiplier was used in the main ecosystem model when simulating the development of a tree stand using a time step of one year. Simulations of the growth and development of Scots pine stands in southern Finland (61{degrees} N) under an elevating temperature indicated that climatic warming could increase the risk of frost damage due to premature onset of growth during warm spells in the late winter and early spring. Risk of frost damage implies uncertainty in yield expectations from boreal forest ecosystems in the event of climatic warming. 38 refs., 9 figs., 4 tabs.

  2. A natural resource condition assessment for Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks: Appendix 22: climatic change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Das, Adrian J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.

    2013-01-01

    30-year time periods -- the Independence station, with a relatively continuous temperature record starting in 1925 -- shows a modest warming, not a cooling, between 1925-1940 and 1971-2000, further casting doubt on the Kings Canyon cooling shown in Figs. 6 and 11 of Appendix 1. If funds become available, it will be useful to more formally analyze potential PRISM biases in long-term SEKI climatic trends. Until then, the analyses of individual weather station records presented here (effectively an analysis of source data that PRISM uses) are meant to provide a robust summary of climatic changes in SEKI.

  3. Sensitivity of global river discharges under Holocene and future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Renssen, H.; Ward, P. J.; de Moel, H.; Odada, E.; Bouwer, L. M.; Goosse, H.

    2006-10-01

    A comparative analysis of global river basins shows that some river discharges are more sensitive to future climate change for the coming century than to natural climate variability over the last 9000 years. In these basins (Ganges, Mekong, Volta, Congo, Amazon, Murray-Darling, Rhine, Oder, Yukon) future discharges increase by 6-61%. These changes are of similar magnitude to changes over the last 9000 years. Some rivers (Nile, Syr Darya) experienced strong reductions in discharge over the last 9000 years (17-56%), but show much smaller responses to future warming. The simulation results for the last 9000 years are validated with independent proxy data.

  4. Characteristic of blocking events over Siberia for the present and future climate conditions, and the implications for the regional climate in South China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheung, H.; Zhou, W.

    2010-12-01

    Blocking activity over Siberia is a crucial factor for initiating and maintaining severe cold events in East Asia, but limited studies have provided a detailed analysis on the impact of its changing characteristics on the regional climate, especially in South China. By using 60-year NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis Datasets (1950/51-2009/10), where a winter season is defined as the 151/152 day period from Nov 1 to Mar 31, distinct characteristics of the blocking events and their downstream impacts for the present climate conditions can be assessed thoroughly. It is found that the blocking events persisting east of the Ural Mountains are generally followed by a cold air outbreak sweeping across various parts in East Asia. Specifically, the intense blocking events usually have large extension and they potentially result in persistent cold weather within the region. On the other hand, the blocking events west of the Ural Mountains are found to exert an impact only if it is of long duration and high intensity. The cold air pathways may be dependent on the geographic location of the blocking anticyclone. The active blocking season over the Urals is probably associated with more intense cold events extending southward and eastward to a great extent. On the contrary, the cold events in the winters of high blocking activity east and west of the Urals are often confined to the northern region. The preferred blocking location may be related to the wavetrain signal propagating eastward from the North Atlantic Ocean. Long-term variability of blocking activities shows a remarkable decreasing and weakening trend. This is perhaps reflected by a similar trend of the cold events in East Asia. Energetic and dynamical factors that are favorable and unfavorable for a specific blocking character will be explored. The explanation is accompanied with the simulation results of future climate conditions using the IPCC AR4 model outputs. The analysis is particularly valuable for enhancing the

  5. Response and adaptation of grapevine cultivars to hydrological conditions forced by a changing climate in a complex landscape

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Lorenzi, Francesca; Bonfante, Antonello; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Monaco, Eugenia; De Mascellis, Roberto; Manna, Piero; Menenti, Massimo

    2014-05-01

    requirements were determined. To assess cultivars adaptability, hydrological requirements were evaluated against hydrological indicators. A probabilistic assessment of adaptability was performed, and the inaccuracy of estimated hydrological requirements was accounted for by the error of estimate and its distribution. Maps of cultivars potential distribution, i.e. locations where each cultivar is expected to be compatible with climate, were derived and possible options for adaptation to climate change were defined. The 2021 - 2050 climate scenario was characterized by higher temperatures throughout the year and by a significant decrease in precipitation during spring and autumn. The results have shown the relevant variability of soils water regime and its effects on cultivars adaptability. In the future climate scenario, a hydrological indicator (i.e. relative evapotranspiration deficit - RETD), averaged over the growing season, showed an average increase of 5-8 %, and more pronounced increases occurred in the phenological phases of berry formation and ripening. At the locations where soil hydrological conditions were favourable (like the ancient terraces), hydrological indicators were quite similar in both climate scenarios and the adaptability of the cultivars was high both in the reference and future climate case. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008) Keywords: climate change, Vitis vinifera L., simulation model, yield response functions, potential cultivation area.

  6. Statistical modelling of grapevine yield in the Port Wine region under present and future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, João A.; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Karremann, Melanie K.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2011-03-01

    The impact of projected climate change on wine production was analysed for the Demarcated Region of Douro, Portugal. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) was developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations were identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle. These atmospheric factors control grapevine yield in the region, with the GYM explaining 50.4% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Anomalously high March rainfall (during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development) favours yield, as well as anomalously high temperatures and low precipitation amounts in May and June (May: flowering and June: berry development). The GYM was applied to a regional climate model output, which was shown to realistically reproduce the GYM predictors. Finally, using ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, projections for GYM-derived yield in the Douro Region, and for the whole of the twenty-first century, were analysed. A slight upward trend in yield is projected to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the twenty-first century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above current values. While this estimate is based on meteorological parameters alone, changes due to elevated CO2 may further enhance this effect. In spite of the associated uncertainties, it can be stated that projected climate change may significantly benefit wine yield in the Douro Valley.

  7. Vegetation productivity responds to sub-annual climate conditions across semiarid biomes

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    In the Southwestern United States (SW), the current prolonged warm drought is similar to the predicted future climate change scenarios for the region. This study aimed to determine patterns in vegetation response to the early 21st century drought across multiple biomes. We hypothesized that differen...

  8. Assessing Students' Learning about Fundamental Concepts of Climate Change under Two Different Conditions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Porter, Dianna; Weaver, Andrew J.; Raptis, Helen

    2012-01-01

    Students from three different British Columbia grade six classes were followed through two weeks of instruction on climate change. Pre, post, and follow-up surveys were used to determine the differences in knowledge gained and retained by students that received direct instruction from their science teacher, and by those who received equivalent…

  9. A simple framework for relating variations in runoff to variations in climatic conditions and catchment properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roderick, Michael L.; Farquhar, Graham D.

    2011-12-01

    We use the Budyko framework to calculate catchment-scale evapotranspiration (E) and runoff (Q) as a function of two climatic factors, precipitation (P) and evaporative demand (Eo = 0.75 times the pan evaporation rate), and a third parameter that encodes the catchment properties (n) and modifies how P is partitioned between E and Q. This simple theory accurately predicted the long-term evapotranspiration (E) and runoff (Q) for the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in southeast Australia. We extend the theory by developing a simple and novel analytical expression for the effects on E and Q of small perturbations in P, Eo, and n. The theory predicts that a 10% change in P, with all else constant, would result in a 26% change in Q in the MDB. Future climate scenarios (2070-2099) derived using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 climate model output highlight the diversity of projections for P (±30%) with a correspondingly large range in projections for Q (±80%) in the MDB. We conclude with a qualitative description about the impact of changes in catchment properties on water availability and focus on the interaction between vegetation change, increasing atmospheric [CO2], and fire frequency. We conclude that the modern version of the Budyko framework is a useful tool for making simple and transparent estimates of changes in water availability.

  10. Basin-scale simulation of current and potential climate changed hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin, United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Christiansen, Daniel E.; Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.

    2014-01-01

    The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) is the largest public investment in the Great Lakes in two decades. A task force of 11 Federal agencies developed an action plan to implement the initiative. The U.S. Department of the Interior was one of the 11 agencies that entered into an interagency agreement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as part of the GLRI to complete scientific projects throughout the Great Lakes basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, a bureau within the Department of the Interior, is involved in the GLRI to provide scientific support to management decisions as well as measure progress of the Great Lakes basin restoration efforts. This report presents basin-scale simulated current and forecast climatic and hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin. The forecasts were obtained by constructing and calibrating a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model of the Lake Michigan Basin; the PRMS model was calibrated using the parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis (PEST) software suite. The calibrated model was used to evaluate potential responses to climate change by using four simulated carbon emission scenarios from eight general circulation models released by the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3. Statistically downscaled datasets of these scenarios were used to project hydrologic response for the Lake Michigan Basin. In general, most of the observation sites in the Lake Michigan Basin indicated slight increases in annual streamflow in response to future climate change scenarios. Monthly streamflows indicated a general shift from the current (2014) winter-storage/snowmelt-pulse system to a system with a more equally distributed hydrograph throughout the year. Simulated soil moisture within the basin illustrates that conditions within the basin are also expected to change on a monthly timescale. One effect of increasing air temperature as a result of the changing

  11. Performance of gas turbines in Russia under the changing climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klimenko, V. V.; Klimenko, A. V.; Kasilova, E. V.; Rekunenko, E. S.; Tereshin, A. G.

    2016-10-01

    The impact of the expected climatic changes on the performance of gas turbine units (GTU) as part of the power industry and gas pipeline network in Russia is considered. Long-term estimates of changes in the average annual air temperature throughout the country are made based on the authors' model. The calculations using the efficiency value of gas turbine units as a function of the ambient air temperature show that climatic changes will significantly deteriorate the operational efficiency of gas-turbine equipment in practically all of Russia's regions. Based on publicly available statistical data, we assessed the installed capacity of gas-turbine power stations (including combined-cycle power plants) and gas-turbine drive of gas pipeline network. Three development scenarios have been considered for gas turbine power in the national electric power industry, differing in the rates of new facilities' commissioning. Integrated estimates have been made of the increase in gas consumption in Russia's gas pipeline network and power industry resulting from climatic changes by 2030 and 2050. It is shown that the total increase in the annual gas consumption associated with a reduction in the efficiency of gas turbine units due to climate warming by 2030 could reach approximately 130000 tce (of which approximately 90000 tce in the gas pipeline network and 40000 tce in the electric power industry) and more than 170000 tce (120000 and 50000 tce, respectively) by 2050. Should more optimistic scenarios be implemented for the development of the electric power industry, this effect will increase 1.5-2.0 times by 2050. Despite high absolute values, the increase in GTU fuel expenditures due to higher ambient temperatures resulting from climate change in Russia will only amount to a fraction of a percent of the total gas consumption and will be two orders of magnitude lower than the savings in space heating.

  12. Under what conditions do climate-driven sex ratios enhance versus diminish population persistence?

    PubMed Central

    Boyle, Maria; Hone, Jim; Schwanz, Lisa E; Georges, Arthur

    2014-01-01

    For many species of reptile, crucial demographic parameters such as embryonic survival and individual sex (male or female) depend on ambient temperature during incubation. While much has been made of the role of climate on offspring sex ratios in species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), the impact of variable sex ratio on populations is likely to depend on how limiting male numbers are to female fecundity in female-biased populations, and whether a climatic effect on embryonic survival overwhelms or interacts with sex ratio. To examine the sensitivity of populations to these interacting factors, we developed a generalized model to explore the effects of embryonic survival, hatchling sex ratio, and the interaction between these, on population size and persistence while varying the levels of male limitation. Populations with TSD reached a greater maximum number of females compared to populations with GSD, although this was often associated with a narrower range of persistence. When survival depended on temperature, TSD populations persisted over a greater range of temperatures than GSD populations. This benefit of TSD was greatly reduced by even modest male limitation, indicating very strong importance of this largely unmeasured biologic factor. Finally, when males were not limiting, a steep relationship between sex ratio and temperature favoured population persistence across a wider range of climates compared to the shallower relationships. The opposite was true when males were limiting – shallow relationships between sex ratio and temperature allowed greater persistence. The results highlight that, if we are to predict the response of populations with TSD to climate change, it is imperative to 1) accurately quantify the extent to which male abundance limits female fecundity, and 2) measure how sex ratios and peak survival coincide over climate. PMID:25512848

  13. Development of a methodology to evaluate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) under changing climate conditions: Application to southern Quebec, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rousseau, Alain N.; Klein, Iris M.; Freudiger, Daphné; Gagnon, Patrick; Frigon, Anne; Ratté-Fortin, Claudie

    2014-11-01

    Climate change (CC) needs to be accounted for in the estimation of probable maximum floods (PMFs). However, there does not exist a unique way to estimate PMFs and, furthermore the challenge in estimating them is that they should neither be underestimated for safety reasons nor overestimated for economical ones. By estimating PMFs without accounting for CC, the risk of underestimation could be high for Quebec, Canada, since future climate simulations indicate that in all likelihood extreme precipitation events will intensify. In this paper, simulation outputs from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) are used to develop a methodology to estimate probable maximum precipitations (PMPs) while accounting for changing climate conditions for the southern region of the Province of Quebec, Canada. The Kénogami and Yamaska watersheds are herein of particular interest, since dam failures could lead to major downstream impacts. Precipitable water (w) represents one of the key variables in the estimation process of PMPs. Results of stationary tests indicate that CC will not only affect precipitation and temperature but also the monthly maximum precipitable water, wmax, and the ensuing maximization ratio used for the estimation of PMPs. An up-to-date computational method is developed to maximize w using a non-stationary frequency analysis, and then calculate the maximization ratios. The ratios estimated this way are deemed reliable since they rarely exceed threshold values set for Quebec, and, therefore, provide consistent PMP estimates. The results show an overall significant increase of the PMPs throughout the current century compared to the recent past.

  14. Hydrological responses to climate change conditioned by historic alterations of land-use and water-use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jarsjö, J.; Asokan, S. M.; Prieto, C.; Bring, A.; Destouni, G.

    2011-08-01

    This paper quantifies and conditions expected hydrological responses in the Aral Sea Drainage Basin (ASDB; occupying 1.3 % of the earth's land surface), Central Asia, to multi-model projections of climate change in the region from 20 general circulation models (GCMs). The aim is to investigate how uncertainties of future climate change interact with the effects of historic human re-distributions of water for land irrigation to influence future water fluxes and water resources. So far, historic irrigation changes have greatly amplified water losses by evapotranspiration (ET) in the ASDB, whereas the 20th century climate change has not much affected the regional net water loss to the atmosphere. Projected future climate change (for the period 2010-2039) however is here calculated to considerably increase the net water loss to the atmosphere. Furthermore, the ET response strength to any future temperature change will be further increased by maintained (or increased) irrigation practices. With such irrigation practices, the river runoff is likely to decrease to near-total depletion, with risk for cascading ecological regime shifts in aquatic ecosystems downstream of irrigated land areas. Without irrigation, the agricultural areas of the principal Syr Darya river basin could sustain a 50 % higher temperature increase (of 2.3 °C instead of the projected 1.5 °C until 2010-2039) before yielding the same consumptive ET increase and associated R decrease as with the present irrigation practices.

  15. Working with invalid boundary conditions: lessons from the field for communicating about climate change with public audiences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gunther, A.

    2015-12-01

    There is an ongoing need to communicate with public audiences about climate science, current and projected impacts, the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and the requirement to prepare for changes that are likely unavoidable. It is essential that scientists are engaged and active in this effort. Scientists can be more effective communicators about climate change to non-scientific audiences if we recognize that some of the normal "boundary conditions" under which we operate do not need to apply. From how we are trained to how we think about our audience, there are some specific skills and practices that allow us to be more effective communicators. The author will review concepts for making our communication more effective based upon his experience from over 60 presentations about climate change to public audiences. These include expressing how your knowledge makes you feel, anticipating (and accepting) questions unconstrained by physics, respecting beliefs and values while separating them from evidence, and using the history of climate science to provide a compelling narrative. Proper attention to presentation structure (particularly an opening statement), speaking techniques for audience engagement, and effective use of presentation software are also important.

  16. Selecting Populations for Non-Analogous Climate Conditions Using Universal Response Functions: The Case of Douglas-Fir in Central Europe

    PubMed Central

    Chakraborty, Debojyoti; Wang, Tongli; Andre, Konrad; Konnert, Monika; Lexer, Manfred J.; Matulla, Christoph; Schueler, Silvio

    2015-01-01

    Identifying populations within tree species potentially adapted to future climatic conditions is an important requirement for reforestation and assisted migration programmes. Such populations can be identified either by empirical response functions based on correlations of quantitative traits with climate variables or by climate envelope models that compare the climate of seed sources and potential growing areas. In the present study, we analyzed the intraspecific variation in climate growth response of Douglas-fir planted within the non-analogous climate conditions of Central and continental Europe. With data from 50 common garden trials, we developed Universal Response Functions (URF) for tree height and mean basal area and compared the growth performance of the selected best performing populations with that of populations identified through a climate envelope approach. Climate variables of the trial location were found to be stronger predictors of growth performance than climate variables of the population origin. Although the precipitation regime of the population sources varied strongly none of the precipitation related climate variables of population origin was found to be significant within the models. Overall, the URFs explained more than 88% of variation in growth performance. Populations identified by the URF models originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and show significantly higher growth performance than populations identified by the climate envelope approach under both current and climate change scenarios. The URFs predict decreasing growth performance at low and middle elevations of the case study area, but increasing growth performance on high elevation sites. Our analysis suggests that population recommendations based on empirical approaches should be preferred and population selections by climate envelope models without considering climatic constrains of growth performance should be carefully appraised before

  17. How do climate and human impact affect Sphagnum peatlands under oceanic-continental climatic conditions? 2000 years of fire and hydrological history of a bog in Northern Poland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marcisz, Katarzyna; Tinner, Willy; Colombaroli, Daniele; Kołaczek, Piotr; Słowiński, Michał; Fiałkiewicz-Kozieł, Barbara; Lamentowicz, Mariusz

    2014-05-01

    Climate change affects many natural processes and the same applies to human impact For instance climate change and anthropogenic activities may cause increased fire activity or change peatland dynamics. Currently it is still unknown how Sphagnum peatlands in the oceanic-continental transition zone of Poland may respond to combined effects of heat waves, drought and fire. The aim of the study was to reconstruct the last 2000 years palaeohydrology and fire history at Linje bog in Northern Poland. The main task was to determine the drivers of fire episodes, particularly to identify climatic and anthropogenic forcing. A two-meter peat core was extracted and subsampled with a high resolution. Micro- and macroscopic charcoal analyses were applied to determine past fire activity and the results compared with palaeohydrological reconstructions based on testate amoeba analysis. Palynological human indicators were used to reconstruct human activity. A depth-age model including 20 14C dates was constructed to calculate peat accumulation rates and charcoal influx. We hypothesised that: 1) fire frequency in Northern Poland was determined by climatic conditions (combination of low precipitation and heat waves), as reflected in peatland water table, and that 2) past fire episodes in the last millennium were intensified by human activity. Furthermore climate may have influenced human activity over harvest success and the carrying capacity. Our study shows that fire was important for the studied ecosystem, however, its frequency has increased in the last millennium in concomitance with land use activities. Landscape humanization and vegetation opening were followed by a peatland drying during the Little Ice Age (from ca. AD 1380). Similarly to other palaeoecological studies from Poland, Linje peatland possessed an unstable hydrology during the Little Ice Age. Increased fire episodes appeared shortly before the Little Ice Age and most severe fires were present in the time when

  18. What Climate Conditions Enhance Hillslope Erosion in Semi-Arid Regions?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pierce, J. L.; Riley, K. E.; Kenworthy, M.; Poulos, M. J.; Weppner, K.; Nelson, N.; Svenson, L.

    2011-12-01

    Researchers have long pondered the question of how climate and climate change influence rates and processes of erosion: this question has become more relevant in the face of ongoing and future anthropogenic warming. We examine evidence of hillslope erosion and sedimentation on alluvial fans over Holocene and Quaternary timescales throughout a range of ecosystems in Idaho, USA. Records of erosion include fire-related and non-fire related deposition on alluvial fans, and landscape-scale analysis of hillslope slope angles. Over Holocene timescales, five independent records of forest-fires and fire-related erosion from sagebrush steppe, pinion-juniper, ponderosa pine, lodgepole pine and mixed conifer ecosystems indicate that sedimentation rates and processes on alluvial fans vary temporally with Holocene climate and spatially with vegetation type. Despite variations in ecosystem type and associated fire regimes, all sites show similar broad-scale temporal patterns. The mid-Holocene (~4-8 ka) is characterized by few fire-related deposits and many non-fire related sheetflooding events (vs. debris flows); this relatively fire-free interval is punctuated by fire peaks and associated sheetflooding ~7-6 ka. As regional paleoclimatic reconstructions generally indicate this time was generally warm and dry the lack of fire is somewhat counterintuitive; however, decreased fuel loads, combined with perhaps a more stable climate may reduce fire and storm intensity and frequency. Late Holocene (last ~3 ka) cooler, wetter and more variable climates (as compared to the mid-Holocene) are characterized by increased fire activity at all sites, and more large debris flows. Medieval droughts correspond with major fire and debris flow peaks ~1000-800 cal yr BP; decadal to annual droughts during the generally cooler and wetter LIA also promote fire peaks ~500-300 cal yr BP. Modern observations of hillslope erosion indicate north-facing or moister slopes are characterized by dense vegetation

  19. Renewable energy to develop adaptation strategies to the climate change conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Servadio, Pieranna; Bergonzoli, Simone

    2013-04-01

    between the corn rows. During the irrigation tests for the autoclave pressure values already mentioned, we obtained an 80 l min-1 flow rate value with a 28 m head value measured by pressure gauge upstream from the electric pump. In these conditions and on sunny days a 26 m3 water body was obtained. From the agronomic point of view, the crop developed more than usual, did not undergo parasite attack nor lodging or cutting off of the steams during the biological cycle, and the development of weeds was limited. The grain production amounted to 10.5 t ha-1, 12.4 % higher with respect to the rain-irrigated parcels. Crop yield results showed better performance of the drip irrigation plant with respect to the sprinkler system. The photovoltaic system met design expectations and showed good reliability during the years of testing. The long-term tests showed that the photovoltaic system is capable of supplying a farm. The problem linked with combustion of fossil fuel will improve this system of energy supply to agricultural farms located in areas not reached by the power network both in Europe and in the sub Saharan countries where many plans are developing in last year pursuing also the scope of a drastic reduction of GHG fluxes. Acknowledgements This work was carried out under the auspices of the special project "Sceneries of adaptation of the Italian agriculture to the climatic changes" (AGROSCENARI) of the Agricultural Research Council, and Italian Ministry of the Agricultural and Forestry Politics.

  20. Short-Term Relationship between Hip Fracture and Weather Conditions in Two Spanish Health Areas with Different Climates

    PubMed Central

    Tenías, José María; Estarlich, Marisa; Crespo, Eusebio; Román-Ortiz, Carmen; Arias-Arias, Angel; Ballester, Ferran

    2015-01-01

    Objective. To evaluate differences in the short-term relationship between weather conditions and the incidence of hip fracture in people aged 65 and over among two regions of Spain. Methods. Hip fracture incidence was calculated for the years 2000–2008 for residents of Health Area 14 in Valencian Community (Mediterranean climate) and the “Mancha Centro” Health Area in Castilla-La Mancha (inland climate), Spain. The relationship between hip fracture incidence and weather was analyzed with a case-crossover design and explored in subgroups defined by sex, age, and fracture type. Results. In the inland area, a positive and significant tendency for hip fracture incidence was observed (annual increase: 1.5%) whereas in the Mediterranean area a seasonal increase of 9% was noted in autumn and winter with respect to spring. Weather conditions, especially wind, were significantly associated with hip fracture incidence: days with more frequent windy periods and/or a greater wind velocity were associated with an increase in hip fracture incidence of 51% in the Mediterranean area and 44% in the inland area. Conclusions. Hip fracture incidence exhibits seasonal changes that differ between the Mediterranean and inland areas. The short-term relationship with climate, although similar in both areas, may partly explain these seasonal changes. PMID:25759722

  1. Prevalence rates of health and welfare conditions in broiler chickens change with weather in a temperate climate

    PubMed Central

    Edwards, Phil; Hajat, Shakoor

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact assessment and adaptation research in agriculture has focused primarily on crop production, with less known about the potential impacts on livestock. We investigated how the prevalence of health and welfare conditions in broiler (meat) chickens changes with weather (temperature, rainfall, air frost) in a temperate climate. Cases of 16 conditions were recorded at approved slaughterhouses in Great Britain. National prevalence rates and distribution mapping were based on data from more than 2.4 billion individuals, collected between January 2011 and December 2013. Analysis of temporal distribution and associations with national weather were based on monthly data from more than 6.8 billion individuals, collected between January 2003 and December 2013. Ascites, bruising/fractures, hepatitis and abnormal colour/fever were most common, at annual average rates of 29.95, 28.00, 23.76 and 22.29 per 10 000, respectively. Ascites and abnormal colour/fever demonstrated clear annual cycles, with higher rates in winter than in summer. Ascites prevalence correlated strongly with maximum temperature at 0 and −1 month lags. Abnormal colour/fever correlated strongly with temperature at 0 lag. Maximum temperatures of approximately 8°C and approximately 19°C marked the turning points of curve in a U-shaped relationship with mortality during transportation and lairage. Future climate change research on broilers should focus on preslaughter mortality. PMID:27703686

  2. Response of ice cover on shallow Arctic lakes to contemporary climate conditions: Numerical modeling and remote sensing data analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duguay, C.; Surdu, C.; Brown, L.; Samuelsson, P.

    2012-04-01

    Lake ice cover has been shown to be a robust indicator of climate variability and change. Recent studies have demonstrated that break-up dates, in particular, have been occurring earlier in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere over the last 50 years in response to warmer climatic conditions in the winter and spring seasons. The impacts of trends in air temperature and winter precipitation over the last five decades and those projected by global climate models will affect the timing and duration of ice cover (and ice thickness) on Arctic lakes. This will likely, in turn, have an important feedback effect on energy, water, and biogeochemical cycling in various regions of the Arctic. In the case of shallow tundra lakes, many of which are less than 3-m deep, warmer climate conditions could result in a smaller fraction of lakes that freeze to their bed in winter since thinner ice covers are expected to develop. Shallow lakes of the coastal plain of northern Alaska, and other similar regions of the Arctic, have likely been experiencing changes in seasonal ice thickness (and phenology) over the last few decades but these have not yet been documented. This paper presents results from a numerical lake ice modeling experiment and the analysis of ERS-1/2 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data to elucidate the response of ice cover (thickness, freezing to bed, and phenology) on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska (NSA)to climate conditions over the last three decades. New downscaled data specific for the Arctic domain (at a resolution of 0.44 degrees using ERA Interim Reanalysis as boundary condition) produced by the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model (RCA4) was used to force the Canadian Lake Ice Model (CLIMo) for the period 1979-2010. Output from CLIMo included freeze-up and break-up dates as well as ice thickness on a daily basis. ERS-1/2 data was used to map areas of shallow lakes that freeze to bed and when this happens (timing) in winter for the period 1991

  3. [Climate change and hygienic assessment of weather conditions in Omsk and the Omsk Region].

    PubMed

    Gudinova, Zh V; Akimova, I S; Klochikhina, A V

    2010-01-01

    The paper deals with trends in climate change in the Omsk Region: the increases in average annual air temperatures and rainfall, which are attended by the higher number of abnormal weather events, as shown by the data of the Omsk Regional Board, Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring. There is information on weather severity in 2008: there was mild weather in spring and severe weather in winter, in January in particular. A survey of physicians has revealed that medical workers are concerned about climate problems and global warming and ascertained weather events mostly affecting the population's health. People worry most frequently about a drastic temperature drop or rise (as high as 71%), atmospheric pressure change (53%), and "when it is too hot in summer (47%).

  4. A natural resource condition assessment for Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks: Appendix 22: climatic change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Das, Adrian J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.

    2013-01-01

    30-year time periods -- the Independence station, with a relatively continuous temperature record starting in 1925 -- shows a modest warming, not a cooling, between 1925-1940 and 1971-2000, further casting doubt on the Kings Canyon cooling shown in Figs. 6 and 11 of Appendix 1. If funds become available, it will be useful to more formally analyze potential PRISM biases in long-term SEKI climatic trends. Until then, the analyses of individual weather station records

  5. Hydrological responses to climate change conditioned by historic alterations of land-use and water-use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jarsjö, J.; Asokan, S. M.; Prieto, C.; Bring, A.; Destouni, G.

    2012-05-01

    This paper quantifies and conditions expected hydrological responses in the Aral Sea Drainage Basin (ASDB; occupying 1.3% of the earth's land surface), Central Asia, to multi-model projections of climate change in the region from 20 general circulation models (GCMs). The aim is to investigate how uncertainties of future climate change interact with the effects of historic human re-distributions of water for land irrigation to influence future water fluxes and water resources. So far, historic irrigation changes have greatly amplified water losses by evapotranspiration (ET) in the ASDB, whereas 20th century climate change has not much affected the regional net water loss to the atmosphere. Results show that errors in temperature (T) and precipitation (P) from single GCMs have large influence on projected change trends (for the period 2010-2039) of river runoff (R), even though the ASDB is spatially well resolved by current GCMs. By contrast, observed biases in GCM ensemble mean results have relatively small influence on projected R change trends. Ensemble mean results show that projected future climate change will considerably increase the net water loss to the atmosphere. Furthermore, the ET response strength to any future T change will be further increased by maintained (or increased) irrigation practices, which shows how climate change and water use change can interact in modifying ET (and R). With maintained irrigation practices, R is likely to decrease to near-total depletion, with risk for cascading ecological regime shifts in aquatic ecosystems downstream of irrigated land areas. Without irrigation, the agricultural areas of the principal Syr Darya river basin could sustain a 50% higher T increase (of 2.3 °C instead of the projected 1.5 °C until 2010-2039) before yielding the same consumptive ET increase and associated R decrease as with the present irrigation practices.

  6. Control of the multimillennial wildfire size in boreal North America by spring climatic conditions

    PubMed Central

    Ali, Adam A.; Blarquez, Olivier; Girardin, Martin P.; Hély, Christelle; Tinquaut, Fabien; El Guellab, Ahmed; Valsecchi, Verushka; Terrier, Aurélie; Bremond, Laurent; Genries, Aurélie; Gauthier, Sylvie; Bergeron, Yves

    2012-01-01

    Wildfire activity in North American boreal forests increased during the last decades of the 20th century, partly owing to ongoing human-caused climatic changes. How these changes affect regional fire regimes (annual area burned, seasonality, and number, size, and severity of fires) remains uncertain as data available to explore fire–climate–vegetation interactions have limited temporal depth. Here we present a Holocene reconstruction of fire regime, combining lacustrine charcoal analyses with past drought and fire-season length simulations to elucidate the mechanisms linking long-term fire regime and climatic changes. We decomposed fire regime into fire frequency (FF) and biomass burned (BB) and recombined these into a new index to assess fire size (FS) fluctuations. Results indicated that an earlier termination of the fire season, due to decreasing summer radiative insolation and increasing precipitation over the last 7.0 ky, induced a sharp decrease in FF and BB ca. 3.0 kyBP toward the present. In contrast, a progressive increase of FS was recorded, which is most likely related to a gradual increase in temperatures during the spring fire season. Continuing climatic warming could lead to a change in the fire regime toward larger spring wildfires in eastern boreal North America. PMID:23213207

  7. The effect of climatic conditions on exercise-induced bronchoconstriction in 10-12 year old students.

    PubMed

    Marefati, Hamid; Vizvari, Exir; Esmaeilizadeh, Mahdi; Boskabady, Mohammad Hossein

    2016-07-01

    Exercise-induced asthma is seen following vigorous or prolonged exercise or physical exertion. It has been suggested that climatic conditions have an influence on exercise-induced asthma. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to examine the effect of two climatic conditions on exercise-induced deterioration of pulmonary function tests in 10-12 year old students. Two hundred and fifty six students were randomly chosen from two cities namely Kerman and Gorgan (128 subjects in each who were equally from both cities) including 62 girls and 66 boys of 10-12 years old. A questionnaire was used to obtain demographic information and to identify the prevalence of asthma symptoms. Each subject performed a seven-minute free run exercise with maximum effort and sufficient motivation until they reached 70-75% heart rate. Pulmonary function tests (PFT) including, forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), peak expiratory flow (PEF), and maximum expiratory flow at 50% of vital capacity (MEF50) were measured before, at the beginning, and 7 and 20 min after physical activity. The prevalence of both asthma (28.12%) and exercise-induced asthma (20.31%) in Kerman students was higher than those of Gorgan students (21.09% and 17%, respectively). All PFT values declined 7 and 20 min post-exercise in both groups. Although all baselines PFT in Kerman students were higher than those of Gorgan students, the decline in PFT values in Kerman students was greater than those of Gorgan students. At 20 min post exercise, the decline in FEV1, PEF and MEF50 in Kerman students was significantly higher than those of Gorgan students (p < 0.05 to p < 0.01). The results of the present study showed that prevalence of both asthma and exercise-induced asthma in a city with dry and cool climate such as Kerman was higher than in a city with humid climate such as Gorgan. In addition, the results showed that in a humid climate, post-exercise decline in PFT values was

  8. Modelling of mineral dust for interglacial and glacial climate conditions with a focus on Antarctica

    DOE PAGES

    Sudarchikova, Natalia; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Timmreck, C.; O'Donnell, D.; Schurgers, G.; Sein, Dmitry; Zhang, Kai

    2015-05-19

    The mineral dust cycle responds to climate variations and plays an important role in the climate system by affecting the radiative balance of the atmosphere and modifying biogeochemistry. Polar ice cores provide unique information about deposition of aeolian dust particles transported over long distances. These cores are a palaeoclimate proxy archive of climate variability thousands of years ago. The current study is a first attempt to simulate past interglacial dust cycles with a global aerosol–climate model ECHAM5-HAM. The results are used to explain the dust deposition changes in Antarctica in terms of quantitative contribution of different processes, such as emission,more » atmospheric transport and precipitation, which will help to interpret palaeodata from Antarctic ice cores. The investigated periods include four interglacial time slices: the pre-industrial control (CTRL), mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP; hereafter referred to as \\"6 kyr\\"), last glacial inception (115 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"115 kyr\\") and Eemian (126 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"126 kyr\\"). One glacial time interval, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"21 kyr\\"), was simulated as well to be a reference test for the model. Results suggest an increase in mineral dust deposition globally, and in Antarctica, in the past interglacial periods relative to the pre-industrial CTRL simulation. Approximately two-thirds of the increase in the mid-Holocene and Eemian is attributed to enhanced Southern Hemisphere dust emissions. Slightly strengthened transport efficiency causes the remaining one-third of the increase in dust deposition. The moderate change in dust deposition in Antarctica in the last glacial inception period is caused by the slightly stronger poleward atmospheric transport efficiency compared to the pre-industrial. Maximum dust deposition in Antarctica was simulated for the glacial period. LGM dust deposition in Antarctica is substantially increased due to 2.6 times

  9. Modelling of mineral dust for interglacial and glacial climate conditions with a focus on Antarctica

    SciTech Connect

    Sudarchikova, Natalia; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Timmreck, C.; O'Donnell, D.; Schurgers, G.; Sein, Dmitry; Zhang, Kai

    2015-05-19

    The mineral dust cycle responds to climate variations and plays an important role in the climate system by affecting the radiative balance of the atmosphere and modifying biogeochemistry. Polar ice cores provide unique information about deposition of aeolian dust particles transported over long distances. These cores are a palaeoclimate proxy archive of climate variability thousands of years ago. The current study is a first attempt to simulate past interglacial dust cycles with a global aerosol–climate model ECHAM5-HAM. The results are used to explain the dust deposition changes in Antarctica in terms of quantitative contribution of different processes, such as emission, atmospheric transport and precipitation, which will help to interpret palaeodata from Antarctic ice cores. The investigated periods include four interglacial time slices: the pre-industrial control (CTRL), mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP; hereafter referred to as \\"6 kyr\\"), last glacial inception (115 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"115 kyr\\") and Eemian (126 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"126 kyr\\"). One glacial time interval, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr BP; hereafter \\"21 kyr\\"), was simulated as well to be a reference test for the model. Results suggest an increase in mineral dust deposition globally, and in Antarctica, in the past interglacial periods relative to the pre-industrial CTRL simulation. Approximately two-thirds of the increase in the mid-Holocene and Eemian is attributed to enhanced Southern Hemisphere dust emissions. Slightly strengthened transport efficiency causes the remaining one-third of the increase in dust deposition. The moderate change in dust deposition in Antarctica in the last glacial inception period is caused by the slightly stronger poleward atmospheric transport efficiency compared to the pre-industrial. Maximum dust deposition in Antarctica was simulated for the glacial period. LGM dust deposition in Antarctica is substantially increased due to 2.6 times higher

  10. Assessing risks from drought and heat stress in productive grasslands under present and future climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calanca, Pierluigi; Mosimann, Eric; Meisser, Marco; Deléglise, Claire

    2014-05-01

    Grasslands cover the majority of the world's agricultural area, provide the feedstock for animal production, contribute to the economy of farms, and deliver a variety of ecological and societal services. Assessing responses of grassland ecosystems to climate change, in particular climate-related risks, is therefore an important step toward identifying adaptation options necessary to secure grassland functioning and productivity. Of particular concern are risks in relation to drought and extreme temperatures, on the one hand because grasslands are very sensitive to water stress, on the other hand also because global warming is expected to increase the occurrence and intensity of these events in many agricultural areas of the world. In this contribution we review findings of ongoing experimental and modelling activities that aim at examining the implications of climate extremes and climate change for grassland vegetation dynamics and herbage productivity. Data collected at the Jura foot in western Switzerland indicate that water scarcity and associated anomalous temperatures slowed plant development in relation to both the summer drought of 2003 as well as the spring drought of 2011, with decline in annual yields of up to 40%. Further effects of drought found from the analysis of recent field trials explicitly designed to study the effects of different water management regimes are changes in the functional composition and nutritive value of grasslands. Similar responses are disclosed by simulations with a process based grassland ecosystem model that was originally developed for the simulation of mixed grass/clover swards. Simulations driven with historical weather records from the Swiss Plateau suggest that drought and extreme temperature could represent one of the main reasons for the observed yield variability in productive systems. Simulations with climate change scenarios further reveal important changes in ecosystem dynamics for the current century. The results

  11. The effect of climate and soil conditions on tree species turnover in a Tropical Montane Cloud Forest in Costa Rica.

    PubMed

    Häger, Achim

    2010-12-01

    On a global level, Tropical Montane Cloud Forests constitute important centers of vascular plant diversity. Tree species turnover along environmental gradients plays an important role in larger scale diversity patterns in tropical mountains. This study aims to estimate the magnitude of beta diversity across the Tilardn mountain range in North-Western Costa Rica, and to elucidate the impact of climate and soil conditions on tree species turnover at a local scale. Seven climate stations measuring rainfall, horizontal precipitation (clouds and wind-driven rain) and temperatures were installed along a 2.5km transect ranging from 1200 m.a.s.l. on the Atlantic to 1200 m.a.s.l. on the Pacific slope. The ridge top climate station was located at 1500 m.a.s.l. Climate data were recorded from March through December 2003. Additionally, seven 0.05 ha plots were established. On all plots soil moisture was monitored for one year, furthermore soil type and soil chemistry were assessed. Woody plants with a diameter at breast height (dbh) > or = 5 cm were identified to species. Species' distributions were explored by feeding pairwise Serensen measures between plots into a Principal Component Analysis. Relationships between floristic similarity and environmental variables were analyzed using Mantel tests. Pronounced gradients in horizontal precipitation, temperatures and soil conditions were found across the transect. In total, 483 woody plants were identified, belonging to 132 species. Environmental gradients were paralleled by tree species turnover; the plots could be divided in three distinctive floristic units which reflected different topographic positions on the transect (lower slopes, mid slopes and ridge). Most notably there was a complete species turnover between the ridge and the lower Pacific slope. Floristic similarity was negatively correlated with differences in elevation, horizontal precipitation, temperatures and soil conditions between plots. It is suggested that

  12. [Cutaneous adverse effects of TNFalpha antagonists].

    PubMed

    Failla, V; Sabatiello, M; Lebas, E; de Schaetzen, V; Dezfoulian, B; Nikkels, A F

    2012-01-01

    The TNFalpha antagonists, including adalimumab, etanercept and infliximab, represent a class of anti-inflammatory and immunosuppressive drugs. Although cutaneous adverse effects are uncommon, they are varied. There is no particular risk profile to develop cutaneous adverse effects. The principal acute side effects are injection site reactions and pruritus. The major long term cutaneous side effects are infectious and inflammatory conditions. Neoplastic skin diseases are exceptional. The association with other immunosuppressive agents can increase the risk of developing cutaneous adverse effects. Some adverse effects, such as lupus erythematosus, require immediate withdrawal of the biological treatment, while in other cases temporary withdrawal is sufficient. The majority of the other cutaneous adverse effects can be dealt without interrupting biologic treatment. Preclinical and clinical investigations revealed that the new biologics, aiming IL12/23, IL23 and IL17, present a similar profile of cutaneous adverse effects, although inflammatory skin reactions may be less often encountered compared to TNFalpha antagonists.

  13. Modelling the Impact of Human Actors on Groundwater Resources under Conditions of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barthel, R.; Reichenau, T. G.; Krimly, T.; Dabbert, S.; Schneider, K.; Mauser, W.; Hennicker, R.

    2012-12-01

    Water resources, activities of human actors and climate change are related in many different and complex ways because of the existence of and strong interactions between various influencing factors, including those that are natural-environmental and socio-economic. The GLOWA-Danube research cooperation has developed the integrated simulation system DANUBIA to simulate water-related influences of global change in different spatial and temporal contexts. DANUBIA is a modular system comprised of 17 dynamically-coupled, process-based model components and a framework which controls the interaction of these components with respect to space and time. This contribution describes approaches and capabilities of DANUBIA with regard to the simulation of global change effects on human decisions in water related fields with a focus on agriculture and groundwater. In agriculture, market prices and legislation can be equally or even more important than water availability in determining farmers' behavior and thus in determining the agricultural impact on water resources quantity and quality. The DANUBIA simulation framework and the associated DeepActor-framework for simulation of decision-making by human actors are presented together with the model components which are most relevant to the interactions between agriculture and groundwater. The approach for developing combination climate and socio-economic scenarios is explained. Exemplary scenario results are shown for the Upper Danube Catchment in Southern Germany. References Barthel, R., Janisch, S., N. Schwarz, A. Trifkovic, D. Nickel, C. Schulz, W. Mauser (2008): An integrated modelling framework for simulating regional-scale actor responses to global change in the water domain. Environmental Modelling and Software, 23, 1095-1121 (doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.02.004) Barthel, R., Reichenau T., Krimly, T., Dabbert, S., Schneider, K., Mauser, W. (2012) Integrated modeling of climate change impacts on agriculture and groundwater

  14. Sources of skill in near-term climate prediction: generating initial conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carrassi, A.; Guemas, V.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Volpi, D.; Asif, M.

    2016-03-01

    This study investigates the role of different areas of the ocean in driving the climate variability. The impact of both global and regional ocean nudging on the climate reconstruction obtained with the climate model EC-Earth v2.3 is studied over the period 1960-2012. Ocean temperature and salinity below the mixed layer are relaxed toward the monthly averages from the ORAS4 ocean reanalysis. Three coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations are considered: (1) global ocean nudging, (2) nudging in the global upper ocean (above 2000 m) and (3) nudging in the mid-latitude ocean and at full ocean depth. The experimental setup allows for identifying local and remote effects of nudging on different geographical areas. The validation is based on the correlation coefficients and the root mean square error skill score and concerns the following variables: ocean heat content, ocean barotropic streamfunction, intensity of the ocean gyres and indexes of convection, sea ice extension, near-surface air and sea surface temperature, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation 3.4 index. The results can be summarized as follows: (1) the positive impact on the reconstruction of the ocean state is found almost everywhere and for most of the analyzed variables, including unconstrained variables and/or regions, (2) deep-ocean nudging shows low impact on sea-surface temperature but a significant impact on the ocean circulation, (3) mid-latitude ocean nudging shows systematically the worst performance pointing at the importance of the poles and tropics in reconstructing the global ocean.

  15. Changing climatic conditions in the Colorado River Basin: Implications for water resources management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dawadi, Srijana; Ahmad, Sajjad

    2012-04-01

    SummaryThis study focuses on the effects of climate variability and climate change on the Colorado River flow as well as on implications for water resources management. A system dynamics model was developed for the Colorado River Basin, operating at a monthly time scale from 1970 to 2035. Changes in streamflow were simulated with a hydrologic model that used outputs from 16 global climate models (GCMs) and 3 emission scenarios. Lake Mead levels - as well as the corresponding probabilities of supply curtailments to the Basin states dependent on the Colorado River - were evaluated based on the changes in streamflow estimated using GCM projections. Lake Mead levels were evaluated with regard to a reduction in supply to the Basin states. Ensemble averages of the GCMs for each emission scenarios indicated an increase in temperature, on average by 0.84 °C over the period of 2012-2035. The magnitude and direction of change in precipitation varied among ensemble of GCMs for different emission scenarios, with A1b showing a decrease and A2 and B1 showing an increase. Ensemble average shows a small increase in precipitation by about 0.4%. An ensemble average reduction in streamflow by about 3% was observed until 2035. This reduction resulted in significant effects on the water supply to the Basin states, with varying reliability values for water supply. Although the median of the ensemble flow resulted in no probability of Lake Mead levels dropping down below 305 m, results varied from 0% to 46% for individual GCMs for A1b scenario. This study may help water managers in long-term planning and management of water resources to meet the future water demands.

  16. Problems of snowmelt runoff modelling for a variety of physiographic and climatic conditions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Leavesley, G.H.

    1989-01-01

    Problems include: a) definition of the spatial and temporal distribution of model input; b) measurement or estimation of snow accumulation, snowmelt, and runoff process parameters for a range of applications and scales; and c) development of accurate short term and long term snowmelt runoff forecasts. Procedures being investigated to solve these problems include: a) integrating conventional and remote-sensing data to improve estimates of input data; b) developing snowmelt process algorithms which have parameters that are closely related to measurable basin and climatic characteristics; and c) updating model paramters and components using measured data or knowledge of past uncertainty. -from Author

  17. Changes on the coastline of buenaventura bay (colombian pacific) and its relationship with the climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo; Ricaurte-Villota, Constanza; Andres Ordoñez, Silvio

    2016-04-01

    Some authors point out that the variability of a coastal system is the response of physical factors (climate, waves, currents, wind, etc.) or combination of some of them, for example long-term variations in the relationship between climate and supply of sedimentary material. For Colombian Pacific coast it has been said that the regimen of meso-tidal is one of the agents that contribute to changes in the morphology of the littoral zone. Between 2012-2015 was conducted a research in the mouth of Buenaventura Bay (Colombia Pacific coast), using two stations: Soldado point (southern point of the bay) and Bazan point (the northern point of the bay), for those stations the digital elevation model (DEM) was performed using a DGPS with technology GNSS the recent evolution of the coastline and changes in volume of sand from beaches for two scalar approaches were determined: annual and intra-annual. The use of ArcGIS 3D Analyst in the DEMs allowed to calculate the cubic area between the raised surfaces each month. Changes in the coastline were made using Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) an ARCGIS extension. We used zonal and meridional components of the wind data near the coast from WindSat, rainfall and sea level anomaly data from the database AVISO (Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic), and sea level pressure (SLP) from NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/ National Center for Atmospheric Research), in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Finally, climatic variables were correlated with the rates of coastal erosion and changes in sand volume of the beaches, because wind and precipitation are some of the factors in sediment transport. The study showed erosion rates with negative values in 2014 and 2015 that represent loss of land, the intra-annual variability in September and October were the highest loss of land, this coincides with the values of the highest tides of the

  18. [The characteristics of the development and course of pneumoconiosis under the conditions of a mountain climate].

    PubMed

    Odinaev, F I

    1992-01-01

    Analysis of pneumoconiosis course in workers exposed to dust in the mines of different altitudes showed, that the increased altitude augmented mountainous hypobaric hypoxia hasten the development of pneumoconiotic process and increase the number of nodular pneumoconiosis growing progressively worse. Pneumoconiosis develops considerably earlier and nodular forms predominate in the newcomers than in native workers. The frequency of such complications, as chronic bronchitis, asthmatic syndrome decreases in accordance with increasing of altitude which can be explained by the features of inhabitants' immunologic status and peculiarity of the mountainous climate.

  19. Satellite-based characterization of climatic conditions before large-scale general flowering events in Peninsular Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Azmy, Muna Maryam; Hashim, Mazlan; Numata, Shinya; Hosaka, Tetsuro; Noor, Nur Supardi Md; Fletcher, Christine

    2016-01-01

    General flowering (GF) is a unique phenomenon wherein, at irregular intervals, taxonomically diverse trees in Southeast Asian dipterocarp forests synchronize their reproduction at the community level. Triggers of GF, including drought and low minimum temperatures a few months previously has been limitedly observed across large regional scales due to lack of meteorological stations. Here, we aim to identify the climatic conditions that trigger large-scale GF in Peninsular Malaysia using satellite sensors, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), to evaluate the climatic conditions of focal forests. We observed antecedent drought, low temperature and high photosynthetic radiation conditions before large-scale GF events, suggesting that large-scale GF events could be triggered by these factors. In contrast, we found higher-magnitude GF in forests where lower precipitation preceded large-scale GF events. GF magnitude was also negatively influenced by land surface temperature (LST) for a large-scale GF event. Therefore, we suggest that spatial extent of drought may be related to that of GF forests, and that the spatial pattern of LST may be related to that of GF occurrence. With significant new findings and other results that were consistent with previous research we clarified complicated environmental correlates with the GF phenomenon. PMID:27561887

  20. A two-year field measurement of methane and nitrous oxide fluxes from rice paddies under contrasting climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Huifeng; Zhou, Sheng; Fu, Zishi; Chen, Guifa; Zou, Guoyan; Song, Xiangfu

    2016-06-01

    The effects of three irrigation levels (traditional normal amount of irrigation [NA100%], 70%, and 30% of the normal amount [NA70% and NA30%]) and two rice varieties (Oryza sativa L. Huayou14 and Hanyou8) on CH4 and N2O emissions were investigated over two years under contrasting climate conditions (a ‘warm and dry’ season in 2013 and a normal season in 2014). Hanyou8 was developed as a drought-resistant variety. The mean seasonal air temperature in 2013 was 2.3 °C higher than in 2014, while the amount of precipitation from transplanting to the grain-filling stage in 2013 was only 36% of that in 2014. CH4 emission rose by 93–161%, but rice grain yield fell by 7–13% in 2013, compared to 2014 under the NA100% conditions. Surface standing water depths (SSWD) were higher in Hanyou8 than in Huayou14 due to the lower water demand by Hanyou8. A reduction in the amount of irrigation water applied can effectively reduce the CH4 emissions regardless of the rice variety and climate condition. However, less irrigation during the ‘warm and dry’ season greatly decreased Huayou14 grain yield, but had little impact on Hanyou8. In contrast, N2O emission depended more on fertilization and SSWD than on rice variety.

  1. Satellite-based characterization of climatic conditions before large-scale general flowering events in Peninsular Malaysia

    PubMed Central

    Azmy, Muna Maryam; Hashim, Mazlan; Numata, Shinya; Hosaka, Tetsuro; Noor, Nur Supardi Md.; Fletcher, Christine

    2016-01-01

    General flowering (GF) is a unique phenomenon wherein, at irregular intervals, taxonomically diverse trees in Southeast Asian dipterocarp forests synchronize their reproduction at the community level. Triggers of GF, including drought and low minimum temperatures a few months previously has been limitedly observed across large regional scales due to lack of meteorological stations. Here, we aim to identify the climatic conditions that trigger large-scale GF in Peninsular Malaysia using satellite sensors, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), to evaluate the climatic conditions of focal forests. We observed antecedent drought, low temperature and high photosynthetic radiation conditions before large-scale GF events, suggesting that large-scale GF events could be triggered by these factors. In contrast, we found higher-magnitude GF in forests where lower precipitation preceded large-scale GF events. GF magnitude was also negatively influenced by land surface temperature (LST) for a large-scale GF event. Therefore, we suggest that spatial extent of drought may be related to that of GF forests, and that the spatial pattern of LST may be related to that of GF occurrence. With significant new findings and other results that were consistent with previous research we clarified complicated environmental correlates with the GF phenomenon. PMID:27561887

  2. Reduction of uncertainty for estimating runoff with the NRCS CN model by the adaptation to local climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Durán-Barroso, Pablo; González, Javier; Valdés, Juan B.

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall-runoff quantification is one of the most important tasks in both engineering and watershed management as it allows to identify, forecast and explain watershed response. For that purpose, the Natural Resources Conservation Service Curve Number method (NRCS CN) is the conceptual lumped model more recognized in the field of rainfall-runoff estimation. Furthermore, there is still an ongoing discussion about the procedure to determine the portion of rainfall retained in the watershed before runoff is generated, called as initial abstractions. This concept is computed as a ratio (λ) of the soil potential maximum retention S of the watershed. Initially, this ratio was assumed to be 0.2, but later it has been proposed to be modified to 0.05. However, the actual procedures to convert NRCS CN model parameters obtained under a different hypothesis about λ do not incorporate any adaptation of climatic conditions of each watershed. By this reason, we propose a new simple method for computing model parameters which is adapted to local conditions taking into account regional patterns of climate conditions. After checking the goodness of this procedure against the actual ones in 34 different watersheds located in Ohio and Texas (United States), we concluded that this novel methodology represents the most accurate and efficient alternative to refit the initial abstraction ratio.

  3. Satellite-based characterization of climatic conditions before large-scale general flowering events in Peninsular Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Azmy, Muna Maryam; Hashim, Mazlan; Numata, Shinya; Hosaka, Tetsuro; Noor, Nur Supardi Md.; Fletcher, Christine

    2016-08-01

    General flowering (GF) is a unique phenomenon wherein, at irregular intervals, taxonomically diverse trees in Southeast Asian dipterocarp forests synchronize their reproduction at the community level. Triggers of GF, including drought and low minimum temperatures a few months previously has been limitedly observed across large regional scales due to lack of meteorological stations. Here, we aim to identify the climatic conditions that trigger large-scale GF in Peninsular Malaysia using satellite sensors, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), to evaluate the climatic conditions of focal forests. We observed antecedent drought, low temperature and high photosynthetic radiation conditions before large-scale GF events, suggesting that large-scale GF events could be triggered by these factors. In contrast, we found higher-magnitude GF in forests where lower precipitation preceded large-scale GF events. GF magnitude was also negatively influenced by land surface temperature (LST) for a large-scale GF event. Therefore, we suggest that spatial extent of drought may be related to that of GF forests, and that the spatial pattern of LST may be related to that of GF occurrence. With significant new findings and other results that were consistent with previous research we clarified complicated environmental correlates with the GF phenomenon.

  4. Satellite-based characterization of climatic conditions before large-scale general flowering events in Peninsular Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Azmy, Muna Maryam; Hashim, Mazlan; Numata, Shinya; Hosaka, Tetsuro; Noor, Nur Supardi Md; Fletcher, Christine

    2016-08-26

    General flowering (GF) is a unique phenomenon wherein, at irregular intervals, taxonomically diverse trees in Southeast Asian dipterocarp forests synchronize their reproduction at the community level. Triggers of GF, including drought and low minimum temperatures a few months previously has been limitedly observed across large regional scales due to lack of meteorological stations. Here, we aim to identify the climatic conditions that trigger large-scale GF in Peninsular Malaysia using satellite sensors, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), to evaluate the climatic conditions of focal forests. We observed antecedent drought, low temperature and high photosynthetic radiation conditions before large-scale GF events, suggesting that large-scale GF events could be triggered by these factors. In contrast, we found higher-magnitude GF in forests where lower precipitation preceded large-scale GF events. GF magnitude was also negatively influenced by land surface temperature (LST) for a large-scale GF event. Therefore, we suggest that spatial extent of drought may be related to that of GF forests, and that the spatial pattern of LST may be related to that of GF occurrence. With significant new findings and other results that were consistent with previous research we clarified complicated environmental correlates with the GF phenomenon.

  5. A two-year field measurement of methane and nitrous oxide fluxes from rice paddies under contrasting climate conditions

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Huifeng; Zhou, Sheng; Fu, Zishi; Chen, Guifa; Zou, Guoyan; Song, Xiangfu

    2016-01-01

    The effects of three irrigation levels (traditional normal amount of irrigation [NA100%], 70%, and 30% of the normal amount [NA70% and NA30%]) and two rice varieties (Oryza sativa L. Huayou14 and Hanyou8) on CH4 and N2O emissions were investigated over two years under contrasting climate conditions (a ‘warm and dry’ season in 2013 and a normal season in 2014). Hanyou8 was developed as a drought-resistant variety. The mean seasonal air temperature in 2013 was 2.3 °C higher than in 2014, while the amount of precipitation from transplanting to the grain-filling stage in 2013 was only 36% of that in 2014. CH4 emission rose by 93–161%, but rice grain yield fell by 7–13% in 2013, compared to 2014 under the NA100% conditions. Surface standing water depths (SSWD) were higher in Hanyou8 than in Huayou14 due to the lower water demand by Hanyou8. A reduction in the amount of irrigation water applied can effectively reduce the CH4 emissions regardless of the rice variety and climate condition. However, less irrigation during the ‘warm and dry’ season greatly decreased Huayou14 grain yield, but had little impact on Hanyou8. In contrast, N2O emission depended more on fertilization and SSWD than on rice variety. PMID:27321231

  6. Projected wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific under the influence of two CMIP5 climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erikson, L. H.; Hegermiller, C. A.; Barnard, P. L.; Ruggiero, P.; van Ormondt, M.

    2015-12-01

    Hindcast and 21st century winds, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), were used to drive global- and regional-scale spectral wind-wave generation models in the Pacific Ocean Basin to assess future wave conditions along the margins of the North American west coast and Hawaiian Islands. Three-hourly winds simulated by four separate GCMs were used to generate an ensemble of wave conditions for a recent historical time-period (1976-2005) and projections for the mid and latter parts of the 21st century under two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), as defined by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) experiments. Comparisons of results from historical simulations with wave buoy and ERA-Interim wave reanalysis data indicate acceptable model performance of wave heights, periods, and directions, giving credence to generating projections. Mean and extreme wave heights are projected to decrease along much of the North American west coast. Extreme wave heights are projected to decrease south of ∼50°N and increase to the north, whereas extreme wave periods are projected to mostly increase. Incident wave directions associated with extreme wave heights are projected to rotate clockwise at the eastern end of the Aleutian Islands and counterclockwise offshore of Southern California. Local spatial patterns of the changing wave climate are similar under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, but stronger magnitudes of change are projected under RCP 8.5. Findings of this study are similar to previous work using CMIP3 GCMs that indicates decreasing mean and extreme wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific, but differ from other studies with respect to magnitude and local patterns of change. This study contributes toward a larger ensemble of global and regional climate projections needed to better assess uncertainty of potential future wave climate change, and provides model boundary conditions for assessing the impacts of

  7. Projected wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific under the influence of two CMIP5 climate scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Erikson, Li H.; Hegermiller, Christie; Barnard, Patrick; Ruggiero, Peter; van Ormondt, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Hindcast and 21st century winds, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), were used to drive global- and regional-scale spectral wind-wave generation models in the Pacific Ocean Basin to assess future wave conditions along the margins of the North American west coast and Hawaiian Islands. Three-hourly winds simulated by four separate GCMs were used to generate an ensemble of wave conditions for a recent historical time-period (1976–2005) and projections for the mid and latter parts of the 21st century under two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), as defined by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) experiments. Comparisons of results from historical simulations with wave buoy and ERA-Interim wave reanalysis data indicate acceptable model performance of wave heights, periods, and directions, giving credence to generating projections. Mean and extreme wave heights are projected to decrease along much of the North American west coast. Extreme wave heights are projected to decrease south of ∼50°N and increase to the north, whereas extreme wave periods are projected to mostly increase. Incident wave directions associated with extreme wave heights are projected to rotate clockwise at the eastern end of the Aleutian Islands and counterclockwise offshore of Southern California. Local spatial patterns of the changing wave climate are similar under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, but stronger magnitudes of change are projected under RCP 8.5. Findings of this study are similar to previous work using CMIP3 GCMs that indicates decreasing mean and extreme wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific, but differ from other studies with respect to magnitude and local patterns of change. This study contributes toward a larger ensemble of global and regional climate projections needed to better assess uncertainty of potential future wave climate change, and provides model boundary conditions for assessing the impacts of

  8. A Preliminary Evaluation of Season-ahead Flood Prediction Conditioned on Large-scale Climate Drivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip; Block, Paul

    2016-04-01

    Globally, flood disasters lead all natural hazards in terms of impacts on society, causing billions of dollars of damages each year. Typically, short-term forecasts emphasize immediate emergency actions, longer-range forecasts, on the order of months to seasons, however, can compliment short-term forecasts by focusing on disaster preparedness. In this study, the inter-annual variability of large-scale climate drivers (e.g. ENSO) is investigated to understand the prospects for skillful season-ahead flood prediction globally using PCR-GLOBWB modeled simulations. For example, global gridded correlations between discharge and Nino 3.4 are calculated, with notably strong correlations in the northwestern (-0.4~-0.6) and the southeastern (0.4~0.6) United States, and the Amazon river basin (-0.6~-0.8). Coupled interactions from multiple, simultaneous climate drivers are also evaluated. Skillful prediction has the potential to estimate season-ahead flood probabilities, flood extent, damages, and eventually integrate into early warning systems. This global approach is especially attractive for areas with limited observations and/or little capacity to develop early warning flood systems.

  9. Impact of snowmaking on alpine water resources management under present and climate change conditions.

    PubMed

    Vanham, D; Fleischhacker, E; Rauch, W

    2009-01-01

    Owing to less natural snow reliability as a result of climate change on the one hand, and the demand of higher standards by winter tourists on the other hand, the production of artificial snow in ski resorts has increased substantially during the last 20 years and is likely to increase further in future. Little research has been conducted on the impact of snowmaking as a water demand stakeholder on a regional water balance. In this paper, a regional water balance (water demand-water resources) is analysed for the greater Kitzbueheler Region in the Austrian Alps, for the current situation and a future climate change scenario (2 degrees C warming). For this temperature rise a significant reduction in natural snow cover duration and snow accumulation is predicted, an effect that increases with lower altitudes and differs between the winter months. Due to the shortening of the winter season, a change in seasonality of river flows and available water resources (ground and surface water) occurs. Both increase in winter, and decrease in spring. The water demand for improvement snowmaking increases, especially in the month of March. However, December proved to be the critical month due to the large amounts of water required for base snowmaking both now and in future. These results stress the necessity of reservoir storage for base snowmaking on a regional level. Water availability during other months but winter is sufficient to fill these reservoirs.

  10. Climate change induced decadal variations in hydrodynamic conditions in the Eastern Baltic Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suursaar, U.; Kullas, T.

    2010-12-01

    Climate change manifests in the Baltic Sea region as increasing air and water temperatures, decrease in salinity and in shortening of the ice period. In addition, atmospheric westflow and storminess has intensified, which should also lead to changes in hydrodynamic regime of the sea. The objective of the paper is to study these changes in the practically tideless, fetch-limited nearshore region of West Estonia. The study is based on meteorological and sea level data from the Estonian weather and tide gauge stations, as well as on hydrodynamic modelling experiments with the shallow sea 2D model and wave hindcast for the period 1966-2008. Corrected with locally varying postglacial land uplift rates, the sea level rise according to the Estonian data was 1.5-2.7 mm/year over the period 1842-2009. Steeper than the lobal sea level rise, the rise in winter sea level, and particularly in annual maxima (3.5-11.2 mm/year), could be explained by the local sea level response to the changing regional wind climate. There are site-dependent changes in current patterns and upwelling occurrences. The significant wave heights exhibited some quasiperiodic cycles with the last high stage in 1980-95 and a slightly decreasing overall trend. As a result of northward shifts in cyclone trajectories, annual maximum waves have increased along the windward coasts of West Estonia, but decreased on the northern coast.

  11. Precipitation variability and response to changing climatic condition in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sang, Yan-Fang; Singh, Vijay P.; Gong, Tongliang; Xu, Kang; Sun, Fubao; Liu, Changming; Liu, Wenbin; Chen, Ruizhi

    2016-08-01

    Hydroclimatic process in the Yarlung Tsangpo River (YTR) basin, a sensitive area to climate change, is obviously changing during recent years, but there has limited understanding about it. In this study, we investigated the spatiotemporal variation of precipitation over last four decades in the basin and the impact thereon of the changing Indian summer monsoon at interannual and decadal time scales. All the precipitation series have similar scaling behavior, reflecting similar climatic regime throughout the basin. However, the effect of the Indian monsoon strengthens from the downstream to upstream, causing spatial variability in the seasonal distribution of precipitation, and on this basis, the YTR basin is roughly divided into three regions: east, middle, and west. Both the occurrence times and magnitude of precipitation extremes, ranging 25-50 mm/d, are exhibiting downward trends over the last four decades, which bodes well for water disaster controls in the basin. The Indian summer monsoon index, as an intensity indicator for the Indian summer monsoon, shows a positive relationship with the summer precipitation in the YTR basin. Periodic variability of the Indian monsoon determines the interannual nonstationary fluctuations of precipitation. Especially, the weakening effect of the Indian summer monsoon has caused an obvious decrease in precipitation over the rainy season after 1998. If the Indian summer monsoon keeps weakening, the precipitation would decrease and potentially water shortage would become more severe in the basin. Effective adaptation strategy should therefore be developed proactively to handle the unfavorable water situation, which is likely to occur in the future.

  12. Estimating permafrost distribution in the maritime Southern Alps, New Zealand, based on climatic conditions at rock glacier sites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sattler, Katrin; Anderson, Brian; Mackintosh, Andrew; Norton, Kevin; de Róiste, Mairéad

    2016-02-01

    Alpine permafrost occurrence in maritime climates has received little attention, despite suggestions that permafrost may occur at lower elevations than in continental climates. To assess the spatial and altitudinal limits of permafrost in the maritime Southern Alps, we developed and tested a catchment-scale distributed permafrost estimate. We used logistic regression to identify the relationship between permafrost presence at 280 active and relict rock glacier sites and the independent variables a) mean annual air temperature and b) potential incoming solar radiation in snow free months. The statistical relationships were subsequently employed to calculate the spatially-distributed probability of permafrost occurrence, using a probability of ≥ 0.6 to delineate the potential permafrost extent. Our results suggest that topoclimatic conditions are favorable for permafrost occurrence in debris-mantled slopes above ~ 2000 m in the central Southern Alps and above ~ 2150 m in the more northern Kaikoura ranges. Considering the well-recognized latitudinal influence on global permafrost occurrences, these altitudinal limits are lower than the limits observed in other mountain regions. We argue that the Southern Alps' lower distribution limits may exemplify an oceanic influence on global permafrost distribution. Reduced ice-loss due to moderate maritime summer temperature extremes may facilitate the existence of permafrost at lower altitudes than in continental regions at similar latitude. Empirical permafrost distribution models derived in continental climates may consequently be of limited applicability in maritime settings.

  13. Modeling Nitrogen Losses in Conventional and Advanced Soil-Based Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems under Current and Changing Climate Conditions.

    PubMed

    Morales, Ivan; Cooper, Jennifer; Amador, José A; Boving, Thomas B

    2016-01-01

    Most of the non-point source nitrogen (N) load in rural areas is attributed to onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS). Nitrogen compounds cause eutrophication, depleting the oxygen in marine ecosystems. OWTS rely on physical, chemical and biological soil processes to treat wastewater and these processes may be affected by climate change. We simulated the fate and transport of N in different types of OWTS drainfields, or soil treatment areas (STA) under current and changing climate scenarios, using 2D/3D HYDRUS software. Experimental data from a mesocosm-scale study, including soil moisture content, and total N, ammonium (NH4+) and nitrate (NO3-) concentrations, were used to calibrate the model. A water content-dependent function was used to compute the nitrification and denitrification rates. Three types of drainfields were simulated: (1) a pipe-and-stone (P&S), (2) advanced soil drainfields, pressurized shallow narrow drainfield (PSND) and (3) Geomat (GEO), a variation of SND. The model was calibrated with acceptable goodness-of-fit between the observed and measured values. Average root mean square error (RSME) ranged from 0.18 and 2.88 mg L-1 for NH4+ and 4.45 mg L-1 to 9.65 mg L-1 for NO3- in all drainfield types. The calibrated model was used to estimate N fluxes for both conventional and advanced STAs under current and changing climate conditions, i.e. increased soil temperature and higher water table. The model computed N losses from nitrification and denitrification differed little from measured losses in all STAs. The modeled N losses occurred mostly as NO3- in water outputs, accounting for more than 82% of N inputs in all drainfields. Losses as N2 were estimated to be 10.4% and 9.7% of total N input concentration for SND and Geo, respectively. The highest N2 losses, 17.6%, were estimated for P&S. Losses as N2 increased to 22%, 37% and 21% under changing climate conditions for Geo, PSND and P&S, respectively. These findings can provide practitioners

  14. Modeling Nitrogen Losses in Conventional and Advanced Soil-Based Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems under Current and Changing Climate Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Cooper, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    Most of the non-point source nitrogen (N) load in rural areas is attributed to onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS). Nitrogen compounds cause eutrophication, depleting the oxygen in marine ecosystems. OWTS rely on physical, chemical and biological soil processes to treat wastewater and these processes may be affected by climate change. We simulated the fate and transport of N in different types of OWTS drainfields, or soil treatment areas (STA) under current and changing climate scenarios, using 2D/3D HYDRUS software. Experimental data from a mesocosm-scale study, including soil moisture content, and total N, ammonium (NH4+) and nitrate (NO3-) concentrations, were used to calibrate the model. A water content-dependent function was used to compute the nitrification and denitrification rates. Three types of drainfields were simulated: (1) a pipe-and-stone (P&S), (2) advanced soil drainfields, pressurized shallow narrow drainfield (PSND) and (3) Geomat (GEO), a variation of SND. The model was calibrated with acceptable goodness-of-fit between the observed and measured values. Average root mean square error (RSME) ranged from 0.18 and 2.88 mg L-1 for NH4+ and 4.45 mg L-1 to 9.65 mg L-1 for NO3- in all drainfield types. The calibrated model was used to estimate N fluxes for both conventional and advanced STAs under current and changing climate conditions, i.e. increased soil temperature and higher water table. The model computed N losses from nitrification and denitrification differed little from measured losses in all STAs. The modeled N losses occurred mostly as NO3- in water outputs, accounting for more than 82% of N inputs in all drainfields. Losses as N2 were estimated to be 10.4% and 9.7% of total N input concentration for SND and Geo, respectively. The highest N2 losses, 17.6%, were estimated for P&S. Losses as N2 increased to 22%, 37% and 21% under changing climate conditions for Geo, PSND and P&S, respectively. These findings can provide practitioners

  15. Modeling Nitrogen Losses in Conventional and Advanced Soil-Based Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems under Current and Changing Climate Conditions.

    PubMed

    Morales, Ivan; Cooper, Jennifer; Amador, José A; Boving, Thomas B

    2016-01-01

    Most of the non-point source nitrogen (N) load in rural areas is attributed to onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS). Nitrogen compounds cause eutrophication, depleting the oxygen in marine ecosystems. OWTS rely on physical, chemical and biological soil processes to treat wastewater and these processes may be affected by climate change. We simulated the fate and transport of N in different types of OWTS drainfields, or soil treatment areas (STA) under current and changing climate scenarios, using 2D/3D HYDRUS software. Experimental data from a mesocosm-scale study, including soil moisture content, and total N, ammonium (NH4+) and nitrate (NO3-) concentrations, were used to calibrate the model. A water content-dependent function was used to compute the nitrification and denitrification rates. Three types of drainfields were simulated: (1) a pipe-and-stone (P&S), (2) advanced soil drainfields, pressurized shallow narrow drainfield (PSND) and (3) Geomat (GEO), a variation of SND. The model was calibrated with acceptable goodness-of-fit between the observed and measured values. Average root mean square error (RSME) ranged from 0.18 and 2.88 mg L-1 for NH4+ and 4.45 mg L-1 to 9.65 mg L-1 for NO3- in all drainfield types. The calibrated model was used to estimate N fluxes for both conventional and advanced STAs under current and changing climate conditions, i.e. increased soil temperature and higher water table. The model computed N losses from nitrification and denitrification differed little from measured losses in all STAs. The modeled N losses occurred mostly as NO3- in water outputs, accounting for more than 82% of N inputs in all drainfields. Losses as N2 were estimated to be 10.4% and 9.7% of total N input concentration for SND and Geo, respectively. The highest N2 losses, 17.6%, were estimated for P&S. Losses as N2 increased to 22%, 37% and 21% under changing climate conditions for Geo, PSND and P&S, respectively. These findings can provide practitioners

  16. Spatial spin-up of fine scales in a regional climate model simulation driven by low-resolution boundary conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matte, Dominic; Laprise, René; Thériault, Julie M.; Lucas-Picher, Philippe

    2016-09-01

    In regional climate modelling, it is well known that domains should be neither too large to avoid a large departure from the driving data, nor too small to provide a sufficient distance from the lateral inflow boundary to allow the full development of the small-scale (SS) features permitted by the finer resolution. Although most practitioners of dynamical downscaling are well aware that the jump of resolution between the lateral boundary condition (LBC) driving data and the nested regional climate model affects the simulated climate, this issue has not been fully investigated. In principle, as the jump of resolution becomes larger, the region of interest in the limited-area domain should be located further away from the lateral inflow boundary to allow the full development of the SS features. A careless choice of domain might result in a suboptimal use of the full finer resolution potential to develop fine-scale features. To address this issue, regional climate model (RCM) simulations using various resolution driving data are compared following the perfect-prognostic Big-Brother protocol. Several experiments were carried out to evaluate the width of the spin-up region (i.e. the distance between the lateral inflow boundary and the domain of interest required for the full development of SS transient eddies) as a function of the RCM and LBC resolutions, as well as the resolution jump. The spin-up distance turns out to be a function of the LBC resolution only, independent of the RCM resolution. When varying the RCM resolution for a given resolution jump, it is found that the spin-up distance corresponds to a fixed number of RCM grid points that is a function of resolution jump only. These findings can serve a useful purpose to guide the choice of domain and RCM configuration for an optimal development of the small scales allowed by the increased resolution of the nested model.

  17. Precipitation variability in the Peruvian Andes under future climatic conditions - Assessment and implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neukom, Raphael; Rohrer, Mario; Salzmann, Nadine; Calanca, Pierluigi; Huggel, Christian; Acuña, Delia

    2014-05-01

    The Peruvian Andes are characterized by pronounced dry and wet seasons. Agriculture but also other economic sectors such as hydropower production strongly depend on water availability, and are therefore sensitive to changes in precipitation regime at the local and regional scale. Future changes in rainfall amounts and variability may have severe consequences for society and need to be assessed in order to develop adequate strategies for adaptation. The precipitation regime of the high Peruvian Andes is characterized by a complex interplay of local orographic effects with large-scale circulation. A main moisture source for the region is the Amazon Basin and the amount of moisture received in the Central Andes is influenced by the strength of zonal winds in the upper troposphere. As a result, variations in seasonal precipitation amounts can be associated to the South American Monsoon and large-scale teleconnections with the oceans surrounding the South American continent. Notably, however, direct correlations of local precipitation with ENSO, the main driver of tropical Pacific variability, are mostly weak and unstable over the short instrumental period. In this contribution we provide an assessment of future changes in precipitation amounts and variability of the southern Peruvian Andes in relation to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation, quantify the associated uncertainties and discuss some of the implications for society. The analysis relies on climate change projections from the CMIP5 initiative. We show that owing to the complex dynamic influence on local climate and the distinct, small-scaled topographic features of the Andes, Global Climate Models (GCMs) have limited ability to adequately simulate precipitation variability at the local scale. Accordingly, uncertainties in simulated precipitation patterns are considerable. More reliable is the simulation of the mid and upper tropospheric flow, as shown by comparing the model output with global re

  18. Reconstructing climatic conditions in the Skagerrak during the last 2000 years using an organic biomarker approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rueda, G.; Rosell-Melé, A.; Gyllencreutz, R.

    2012-04-01

    The Skagerrak, between Norway and Denmark, is a major sink for fine grained sediment from the North Sea. Sediments are transported by the North Atlantic current, which brings warm water and air to northern Europe, being a key factor for modulating continental climate in this region. The relative sediment accumulation rate in the central and north-eastern Skagerrak can be higher than 1 cm/year, being a unique site for studying the paleoceanographic development of the eastern North Sea and paleoclimatic history of northwestern Europe at high resolution during the Holocene. Here we show a paleoclimatic reconstruction for the last 2000 years at a decadal scale, obtained from core MD99-2286 located in north-eastern Skagerrak. To obtain past sea surface temperature (SST) estimates, we analyzed organic biomarkers such as the commonly used UK37' ratio based on the relative abundance of alkenones, lipids synthesized by algae, and the more recently proposed TEX86 proxy, based on the relative abundance and distribution of isoprenoid glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), lipids synthesized by archaea thriving in the water column. To estimate past continental air temperatures we used the MBT/CBT proxy based on branched GDGTs, postulated to be synthesized by soil bacteria. We analyzed chlorins, degradation products of chlorophyll present in the marine sediments to obtain information on past primary productivity variations over time. Our data can be compared to other recent studies conducted in this area analyzing microfossil and sedimentologic proxies, completing the paleoclimatic development history of this region for the last 2000 years. Our results suggest that the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation variability influenced climatic multidecadal variability in northern Europe for the last 2000 years, in agreement with previous studies.

  19. Influence of climatic conditions and soil type on 99TcO4- uptake by rye grass.

    PubMed

    Echevarria, Guillaume; Morel, Jean Louis; Florentin, Louis; Leclerc-Cessac, Elisabeth

    2003-01-01

    Climatic changes over the long term will modify significantly the biosphere, with glaciation events probably taking place in the next 100 000 years. This is important to safety assessments of nuclear waste disposal facilities that contain high-level and long-lived waste. The soils will evolve toward new situations, and their properties will be consequently modified (e.g. an increase of soil organic matter may be expected in a cooler climate). These changes in soil properties would affect the mobility and the soil-to-plant transfer of radionuclides such as (99)Tc. This study aimed at simulating the cooling of climatic conditions for soils representative of a Jurassic limestone plateau, and the effect on transfer parameters of (99)TcO(4)(-) in the soil-plant systems was investigated. The cooler conditions were simulated by increasing elevation, a surrogate for climate change. Soils were sampled in similar geological background and topography at different elevations in the north east of France (Lorraine and Jura). Soil/solution distribution coefficients (K(d)) of (99)TcO(4)(-) were measured on soil samples in short-term batch experiments with 1:10 soil:solution ratio. Rye grass was grown on the soils spiked with (99)TcO(4)(-) at temperature regimes adapted to each soil. Also, two different temperature regimes (cold and temperate) were applied to one soil to test the effect of plant physiology and evapotranspiration on (99)TcO(4)(-) uptake. K(d) values did not show significant differences among soils in aerobic conditions, and were not significantly different from 0. During plant culture, reduction of (99)Tc was never totally achieved in soils, including in a peaty OM soil. Concentration ratios (CR) were calculated on a dry weight basis and ranged from 20 to 370. CR were always higher in high temperature regimes than in cold temperatures. They were also inversely correlated with soil organic matter (OM) content. A decrease of CR values from 5 to 10-fold was observed

  20. Hindcasting Historical Breeding Conditions for an Endangered Salamander in Ephemeral Wetlands of the Southeastern USA: Implications of Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Chandler, Houston C; Rypel, Andrew L; Jiao, Yan; Haas, Carola A; Gorman, Thomas A

    2016-01-01

    The hydroperiod of ephemeral wetlands is often the most important characteristic determining amphibian breeding success, especially for species with long development times. In mesic and wet pine flatwoods of the southeastern United States, ephemeral wetlands were a common landscape feature. Reticulated flatwoods salamanders (Ambystoma bishopi), a federally endangered species, depend exclusively on ephemeral wetlands and require at least 11 weeks to successfully metamorphose into terrestrial adults. We empirically modeled hydroperiod of 17 A. bishopi breeding wetlands by combining downscaled historical climate-model data with a recent 9-year record (2006-2014) of observed water levels. Empirical models were subsequently used to reconstruct wetland hydrologic conditions from 1896-2014 using the downscaled historical climate datasets. Reconstructed hydroperiods for the 17 wetlands were highly variable through time but were frequently unfavorable for A. bishopi reproduction (e.g., only 61% of years, using a conservative estimate of development time [12 weeks], were conducive to larval development and metamorphosis). Using change-point analysis, we identified significant shifts in average hydroperiod over the last century in all 17 wetlands. Mean hydroperiods were shorter in recent years than at any other point since 1896, and thus less suitable for A. bishopi reproduction. We suggest that climate change will continue to impact the reproductive success of flatwoods salamanders and other ephemeral wetland breeders by reducing the number of years these wetlands have suitable hydroperiods. Consequently, we emphasize the importance of conservation and management for mitigating other forms of habitat degradation, especially maintenance of high quality breeding sites where reproduction can occur during appropriate environmental conditions.

  1. Hindcasting Historical Breeding Conditions for an Endangered Salamander in Ephemeral Wetlands of the Southeastern USA: Implications of Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Chandler, Houston C.; Rypel, Andrew L.; Jiao, Yan; Haas, Carola A.; Gorman, Thomas A.

    2016-01-01

    The hydroperiod of ephemeral wetlands is often the most important characteristic determining amphibian breeding success, especially for species with long development times. In mesic and wet pine flatwoods of the southeastern United States, ephemeral wetlands were a common landscape feature. Reticulated flatwoods salamanders (Ambystoma bishopi), a federally endangered species, depend exclusively on ephemeral wetlands and require at least 11 weeks to successfully metamorphose into terrestrial adults. We empirically modeled hydroperiod of 17 A. bishopi breeding wetlands by combining downscaled historical climate-model data with a recent 9-year record (2006–2014) of observed water levels. Empirical models were subsequently used to reconstruct wetland hydrologic conditions from 1896–2014 using the downscaled historical climate datasets. Reconstructed hydroperiods for the 17 wetlands were highly variable through time but were frequently unfavorable for A. bishopi reproduction (e.g., only 61% of years, using a conservative estimate of development time [12 weeks], were conducive to larval development and metamorphosis). Using change-point analysis, we identified significant shifts in average hydroperiod over the last century in all 17 wetlands. Mean hydroperiods were shorter in recent years than at any other point since 1896, and thus less suitable for A. bishopi reproduction. We suggest that climate change will continue to impact the reproductive success of flatwoods salamanders and other ephemeral wetland breeders by reducing the number of years these wetlands have suitable hydroperiods. Consequently, we emphasize the importance of conservation and management for mitigating other forms of habitat degradation, especially maintenance of high quality breeding sites where reproduction can occur during appropriate environmental conditions. PMID:26910245

  2. Hindcasting Historical Breeding Conditions for an Endangered Salamander in Ephemeral Wetlands of the Southeastern USA: Implications of Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Chandler, Houston C; Rypel, Andrew L; Jiao, Yan; Haas, Carola A; Gorman, Thomas A

    2016-01-01

    The hydroperiod of ephemeral wetlands is often the most important characteristic determining amphibian breeding success, especially for species with long development times. In mesic and wet pine flatwoods of the southeastern United States, ephemeral wetlands were a common landscape feature. Reticulated flatwoods salamanders (Ambystoma bishopi), a federally endangered species, depend exclusively on ephemeral wetlands and require at least 11 weeks to successfully metamorphose into terrestrial adults. We empirically modeled hydroperiod of 17 A. bishopi breeding wetlands by combining downscaled historical climate-model data with a recent 9-year record (2006-2014) of observed water levels. Empirical models were subsequently used to reconstruct wetland hydrologic conditions from 1896-2014 using the downscaled historical climate datasets. Reconstructed hydroperiods for the 17 wetlands were highly variable through time but were frequently unfavorable for A. bishopi reproduction (e.g., only 61% of years, using a conservative estimate of development time [12 weeks], were conducive to larval development and metamorphosis). Using change-point analysis, we identified significant shifts in average hydroperiod over the last century in all 17 wetlands. Mean hydroperiods were shorter in recent years than at any other point since 1896, and thus less suitable for A. bishopi reproduction. We suggest that climate change will continue to impact the reproductive success of flatwoods salamanders and other ephemeral wetland breeders by reducing the number of years these wetlands have suitable hydroperiods. Consequently, we emphasize the importance of conservation and management for mitigating other forms of habitat degradation, especially maintenance of high quality breeding sites where reproduction can occur during appropriate environmental conditions. PMID:26910245

  3. Thermal comfort in air-conditioned buildings in hot and humid climates--why are we not getting it right?

    PubMed

    Sekhar, S C

    2016-02-01

    While there are plenty of anecdotal experiences of overcooled buildings in summer, evidence from field studies suggests that there is indeed an issue of overcooling in tropical buildings. The findings suggest that overcooled buildings are not a consequence of occupant preference but more like an outcome of the HVAC system design and operation. Occupants' adaptation in overcooled indoor environments through additional clothing cannot be regarded as an effective mitigating strategy for cold thermal discomfort. In the last two decades or so, several field studies and field environmental chamber studies in the tropics provided evidence for occupants' preference for a warmer temperature with adaptation methods such as elevated air speeds. It is important to bear in mind that indoor humidity levels are not compromised as they could have an impact on the inhaled air condition that could eventually affect perceived air quality. This review article has attempted to track significant developments in our understanding of the thermal comfort issues in air-conditioned office and educational buildings in hot and humid climates in the last 25 years, primarily on occupant preference for thermal comfort in such climates. The issue of overcooled buildings, by design intent or otherwise, is discussed in some detail. Finally, the article has explored some viable adaptive thermal comfort options that show considerable promise for not only improving thermal comfort in tropical buildings but are also energy efficient and could be seen as sustainable solutions. PMID:25626476