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Sample records for aerosol climate forcing

  1. Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Charlson, R. J.; Schwartz, S. E.; Hales, J. M.; Cess, R. D.; Coakley, J. A., Jr.; Hansen, J. E.; Hofmann, D. J.

    1992-01-01

    Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol, in particular, has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of short-wavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square meter, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes.

  2. Aerosol Forcing of Climate Change and "Anomalous" Atmospheric Absorption

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.

    1999-01-01

    The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well-measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. We will focus on the role of aerosols as a climate forcing mechanism and the contribution that aerosols might make to the so- called "anomalous" atmospheric absorption that has been inferred from some atmospheric measurements.

  3. Aerosol Forcing of Climate Change and Anomalous Atmospheric Absorption

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.

    2000-01-01

    The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change, Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well-measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. We will focus on the role of aerosols as a climate forcing mechanism and the contribution that aerosols might make to the so-called "anomalous" atmospheric absorption that has been inferred from some atmospheric measurements.

  4. Anthropogenic Aerosols in Asia, Radiative Forcing, and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramaswamy, V.; Bollasina, M. A.; Ming, Y.; Ocko, I.; Persad, G.

    2014-12-01

    Aerosols arising as a result of human-induced emissions in Asia form a key 'driver' in causing pollution and in the forcing of anthropogenic climate change. The manner of the forced climate change is sensitive to the scattering and absorption properties of the aerosols and the aerosol-cloud microphysical interactions. Using the NOAA/ GFDL global climate models and observations from multiple platforms, we investigate the radiative perturbations due to the 20th Century sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol emissions and the resultant impacts on surface temperature, tropical precipitation, Indian monsoon, hemispheric circulation, and atmospheric and oceanic heat transports. The influence of the aerosol species has many contrasts with that due to the anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gas emissions e.g., the asymmetry in the hemispheric climate response, but is subject to larger uncertainties. The aerosol forcing expected in the future indicates a significant control on the 21st Century anthropogenic climate change in Asia.

  5. Global climate forcing of aerosols embodied in international trade

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Jintai; Tong, Dan; Davis, Steven; Ni, Ruijing; Tan, Xiaoxiao; Pan, Da; Zhao, Hongyan; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David; Feng, Tong; Zhang, Qiang; Yan, Yingying; Hu, Yongyun; Li, Jing; Liu, Zhu; Jiang, Xujia; Geng, Guannan; He, Kebin; Huang, Yi; Guan, Dabo

    2016-10-01

    International trade separates regions consuming goods and services from regions where goods and related aerosol pollution are produced. Yet the role of trade in aerosol climate forcing attributed to different regions has never been quantified. Here, we contrast the direct radiative forcing of aerosols related to regions' consumption of goods and services against the forcing due to emissions produced in each region. Aerosols assessed include black carbon, primary organic aerosol, and secondary inorganic aerosols, including sulfate, nitrate and ammonium. We find that global aerosol radiative forcing due to emissions produced in East Asia is much stronger than the forcing related to goods and services ultimately consumed in that region because of its large net export of emissions-intensive goods. The opposite is true for net importers such as Western Europe and North America: global radiative forcing related to consumption is much greater than the forcing due to emissions produced in these regions. Overall, trade is associated with a shift of radiative forcing from net importing to net exporting regions. Compared to greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, the short atmospheric lifetimes of aerosols cause large localized differences between consumption- and production-related radiative forcing. International efforts to reduce emissions in the exporting countries will help alleviate trade-related climate and health impacts of aerosols while lowering global emissions.

  6. Climate Implications of the Heterogeneity of Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Persad, Geeta Gayatri

    Short-lived anthropogenic aerosols are concentrated in regions of high human activity, where they interact with radiation and clouds, causing horizontally heterogeneous radiative forcing between polluted and unpolluted regions. Aerosols can absorb shortwave energy in the atmosphere, but deplete it at the surface, producing opposite radiative perturbations between the surface and atmosphere. This thesis investigates climate and policy implications of this horizontal and vertical heterogeneity of anthropogenic aerosol forcing, employing the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's AM2.1 and AM3 models, both at a global scale and using East Asia as a regional case study. The degree of difference between spatial patterns of climate change due to heterogeneous aerosol forcing versus homogeneous greenhouse gas forcing deeply impacts the detection, attribution, and prediction of regional climate change. This dissertation addresses a gap in current understanding of these two forcings' response pattern development, using AM2.1 historical forcing simulations. The results indicate that fast atmospheric and land-surface processes alone substantially homogenize the global pattern of surface energy flux response to heterogeneous aerosol forcing. Aerosols' vertical redistribution of energy significantly impacts regional climate, but is incompletely understood. It is newly identified here, via observations and historical and idealized forcing simulations, that increased aerosol-driven atmospheric absorption may explain half of East Asia's recent surface insolation decline. Further, aerosols' surface and atmospheric effects counteract each other regionally---atmospheric heating enhances summer monsoon circulation, while surface dimming suppresses it---but absorbing aerosols' combined effects reduce summer monsoon rainfall. This thesis constitutes the first vertical decomposition of aerosols' impacts in this high-emissions region and elucidates the monsoonal response to aerosols

  7. Strategy to use the Terra Aerosol Information to Derive the Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kaufman, Yoram J.; Tanre, Didier; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Terra will derive the aerosol optical thickness and properties. The aerosol properties can be used to distinguish between natural and human-made aerosol. In the polar orbit Terra will measure aerosol only once a day, around 10:30 am. How will we use this information to study the global radiative impacts of aerosol on climate? We shall present a strategy to address this problem. It includes the following steps: - From the Terra aerosol optical thickness and size distribution model we derive the effect of aerosol on reflection of solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere. In a sensitivity study we show that the effect of aerosol on solar fluxes can be derived 10 times more accurately from the MODIS data than derivation of the optical thickness itself. Applications to data over several regions will be given. - Using 1/2 million AERONET global data of aerosol spectral optical thickness we show that the aerosol optical thickness and properties during the Terra 10:30 pass are equivalent to the daily average. Due to the aerosol lifetime of several days measurements at this time of the day are enough to assess the daily impact of aerosol on radiation. - Aerosol impact on the top of the atmosphere is only part of the climate question. The INDOEX experiment showed that addressing the impact of aerosol on climate, requires also measurements of the aerosol forcing at the surface. This can be done by a combination of measurements of MODIS and AERONET data.

  8. Satellite methods underestimate indirect climate forcing by aerosols

    PubMed Central

    Penner, Joyce E.; Xu, Li; Wang, Minghuai

    2011-01-01

    Satellite-based estimates of the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) are consistently smaller than the estimates from global aerosol models, and, partly as a result of these differences, the assessment of this climate forcing includes large uncertainties. Satellite estimates typically use the present-day (PD) relationship between observed cloud drop number concentrations (Nc) and aerosol optical depths (AODs) to determine the preindustrial (PI) values of Nc. These values are then used to determine the PD and PI cloud albedos and, thus, the effect of anthropogenic aerosols on top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes. Here, we use a model with realistic aerosol and cloud processes to show that empirical relationships for ln(Nc) versus ln(AOD) derived from PD results do not represent the atmospheric perturbation caused by the addition of anthropogenic aerosols to the preindustrial atmosphere. As a result, the model estimates based on satellite methods of the AIE are between a factor of 3 to more than a factor of 6 smaller than model estimates based on actual PD and PI values for Nc. Using ln(Nc) versus ln(AI) (Aerosol Index, or the optical depth times angstrom exponent) to estimate preindustrial values for Nc provides estimates for Nc and forcing that are closer to the values predicted by the model. Nevertheless, the AIE using ln(Nc) versus ln(AI) may be substantially incorrect on a regional basis and may underestimate or overestimate the global average forcing by 25 to 35%. PMID:21808047

  9. Simultaneously Constraining Climate Sensitivity and Aerosol Radiative Forcing.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harvey, L. D. Danny; Kaufmann, Robert K.

    2002-10-01

    An energy balance climate model with latitudinal, surface-air, and land-sea resolution is coupled to a two-dimensional (latitude-depth) ocean model and used to simulate changes in surface and surface air temperature since 1765. The climate model sensitivity can be prescribed by adjusting the parameterization of infrared radiation to space, and sensitivities corresponding to an equilibrium, global average warming to a CO2 doubling (T2×) of 1.0° to 5.0°C are used here. The model is driven with various combinations of greenhouse gas (GHG), fossil fuel aerosol, biomass aerosol, solar, and volcanic forcings. The fossil fuel aerosol forcing is concentrated in the NH, while the biomass aerosol forcing is centered near the equator. The variation in the global mean air temperature, and in the NH minus SH temperature, is examined over the period 1856-2000, in order to simultaneously constrain both climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing. The model performance, compared to observations, is evaluated using three statistical measures. It is possible to identify a group of experiments that performs better than other experiments, but it cannot be claimed that any member of the group is better than any other member in a statistically rigorous manner. The different statistical measures and temperature variables (global mean, NH SH, NH, or SH temperature) give slightly different groups of `more accurate' experiments.Based on the statistical measures and examination of the time series of model-simulated global mean and NH SH temperature variation, the following conclusions can be drawn: (i) The most likely T2× is around 2°C, which is at the lower end of the range of 2.1°-4.8°C obtained by recent general circulation models; (ii) the fossil fuel aerosol forcing is unlikely to have exceeded 1.0 W m2 in the global mean by 1990; and (iii) the net biomass plus soil dust aerosol forcing is unlikely to have exceeded 0.5 W m2 in the global mean by 1990. As an independent check of these

  10. The relative roles of sulfate aerosols and greenhouse gases in climate forcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kiehl, J. T.; Briegleb, B. P.

    1993-01-01

    Calculations of the effects of both natural and anthropogenic tropospheric sulfate aerosols indicate that the aerosol climate forcing is sufficiently large in a number of regions of the Northern Hemisphere to reduce significantly the positive forcing from increased greenhouse gases. Summer sulfate aerosol forcing in the Northern Hemisphere completely offsets the greenhouse forcing over the eastern United States and central Europe. Anthropogenic sulfate aerosols contribute a globally averaged annual forcing of -0.3 watt per square meter as compared with +2.1 watts per square meter for greenhouse gases. Sources of the difference in magnitude with the previous estimate of Charlson et al. (1992) are discussed.

  11. Stratospheric aerosol forcing for climate modeling: 1850-1978

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arfeuille, Florian; Luo, Beiping; Thomason, Larry; Vernier, Jean-Paul; Peter, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    We present here a stratospheric aerosol dataset produced using the available aerosol optical depth observations from the pre-satellite period. The scarce atmospheric observations are supplemented by additional information from an aerosol microphysical model, initialized by ice-core derived sulfur emissions. The model is used to derive extinctions at all altitudes, latitudes and times when sulfur injections are known for specific volcanic eruptions. The simulated extinction coefficients are then scaled to match the observed optical depths. In order to produce the complete optical properties at all wavelengths (and the aerosol surface area and volume densities) needed by climate models, we assume a lognormal size distribution of the aerosols. Correlations between the extinctions in the visible and the effective radius and distribution width parameters are taken from the better constrained SAGE II period. The aerosol number densities are then fitted to match the derived extinctions in the 1850-1978 period. From these aerosol size distributions, we then calculate extinction coefficients, single scattering albedos and asymmetry factors at all wavelengths using the Mie theory. The aerosol surface area densities and volume densities are also provided.

  12. Sensitivity of scattering and absorbing aerosol direct radiative forcing to physical climate factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ocko, Ilissa B.; Ramaswamy, V.; Ginoux, Paul; Ming, Yi; Horowitz, Larry W.

    2012-10-01

    The direct radiative forcing of the climate system includes effects due to scattering and absorbing aerosols. This study explores how important physical climate characteristics contribute to the magnitudes of the direct radiative forcings (DRF) from anthropogenic sulfate, black carbon, and organic carbon. For this purpose, we employ the GFDL CM2.1 global climate model, which has reasonable aerosol concentrations and reconstruction of twentieth-century climate change. Sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols constitute the most important anthropogenic aerosol perturbations to the climate system and provide striking contrasts between primarily scattering (sulfate and organic carbon) and primarily absorbing (black carbon) species. The quantitative roles of cloud coverage, surface albedo, and relative humidity in governing the sign and magnitude of all-sky top-of-atmosphere (TOA) forcings are examined. Clouds reduce the global mean sulfate TOA DRF by almost 50%, reduce the global mean organic carbon TOA DRF by more than 30%, and increase the global mean black carbon TOA DRF by almost 80%. Sulfate forcing is increased by over 50% as a result of hygroscopic growth, while high-albedo surfaces are found to have only a minor (less than 10%) impact on all global mean forcings. Although the radiative forcing magnitudes are subject to uncertainties in the state of mixing of the aerosol species, it is clear that fundamental physical climate characteristics play a large role in governing aerosol direct radiative forcing magnitudes.

  13. Remote Sensing of Aerosol and Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate from EOS Terra MODIS Instrument

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kaufman, Yoram; Tanre, Didier; Remer, Lorraine; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The recent launch of EOS-Terra into polar orbit has begun to revolutionize remote sensing of aerosol and their effect on climate. Terra has five instruments, two of them,Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Multiangle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MISR) are designed to monitor global aerosol in two different complementary ways. Here we shall discuss the use of the multispectral measurements of MODIS to derive: (1) the global distribution of aerosol load (and optical thickness) over ocean and land; (2) to measure the impact of aerosol on reflection of sunlight to space; and (3) to measure the ability of aerosol to absorb solar radiation. These measurements have direct applications on the understanding of the effect of aerosol on climate, the ability to predict climate change, and on the monitoring of dust episodes and man-made pollution. Principles of remote sensing of aerosol from MODIS will be discussed and first examples of measurements from MODIS will be provided.

  14. Impact of Mixing State on Anthropogenic Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Associated Climate Response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avramov, A.; Shin, H. J.; Wang, C.

    2014-12-01

    Atmospheric aerosols affect Earth's radiation balance directly by scattering and absorbing solar radiation and, indirectly, by changing the microphysical structure, lifetime and spatial extent of clouds. The aerosol mixing state to a large extent determines not only their optical properties (direct effect) but also their ability to serve as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei (indirect effect). Results from previous research have highlighted the importance of the aerosol mixing assumptions in radiative forcing estimates in model simulations. Here we take a step further to analyze the differences in associated climate responses, using a multimodal, size- and mixing-dependent aerosol model (MARC) incorporated within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The new model allows for a detailed representation of aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions by including an improved treatment of aerosol mixing state and composition. First, we estimate and compare the magnitudes of direct and indirect forcing of anthropogenic aerosols under different mixing assumptions. We then carry out several century-long fully-coupled climate simulations designed to isolate the climate responses to direct and indirect forcings under the same aerosol mixing assumptions. In our analysis, we specifically focus on the following three climate response components: 1) cloud distribution and coverage; 2) precipitation amount and distribution; and 3) changes in circulation patterns.

  15. Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA v1.0): an idealized forcing generator for climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toohey, Matthew; Stevens, Bjorn; Schmidt, Hauke; Timmreck, Claudia

    2016-11-01

    Stratospheric sulfate aerosols from volcanic eruptions have a significant impact on the Earth's climate. To include the effects of volcanic eruptions in climate model simulations, the Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA) forcing generator provides stratospheric aerosol optical properties as a function of time, latitude, height, and wavelength for a given input list of volcanic eruption attributes. EVA is based on a parameterized three-box model of stratospheric transport and simple scaling relationships used to derive mid-visible (550 nm) aerosol optical depth and aerosol effective radius from stratospheric sulfate mass. Precalculated look-up tables computed from Mie theory are used to produce wavelength-dependent aerosol extinction, single scattering albedo, and scattering asymmetry factor values. The structural form of EVA and the tuning of its parameters are chosen to produce best agreement with the satellite-based reconstruction of stratospheric aerosol properties following the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, and with prior millennial-timescale forcing reconstructions, including the 1815 eruption of Tambora. EVA can be used to produce volcanic forcing for climate models which is based on recent observations and physical understanding but internally self-consistent over any timescale of choice. In addition, EVA is constructed so as to allow for easy modification of different aspects of aerosol properties, in order to be used in model experiments to help advance understanding of what aspects of the volcanic aerosol are important for the climate system.

  16. Radiative forcing and climate response to projected 21st century aerosol decreases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Golaz, J.-C.; Mauzerall, D. L.

    2015-11-01

    It is widely expected that global emissions of atmospheric aerosols and their precursors will decrease strongly throughout the remainder of the 21st century, due to emission reduction policies enacted to protect human health. For instance, global emissions of aerosols and their precursors are projected to decrease by as much as 80 % by the year 2100, according to the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The removal of aerosols will cause unintended climate consequences, including an unmasking of global warming from long-lived greenhouse gases. We use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Climate Model version 3 (GFDL CM3) to simulate future climate over the 21st century with and without the aerosol emission changes projected by each of the RCPs in order to isolate the radiative forcing and climate response resulting from the aerosol reductions. We find that the projected global radiative forcing and climate response due to aerosol decreases do not vary significantly across the four RCPs by 2100, although there is some mid-century variation, especially in cloud droplet effective radius, that closely follows the RCP emissions and energy consumption projections. Up to 1 W m-2 of radiative forcing may be unmasked globally from 2005 to 2100 due to reductions in aerosol and precursor emissions, leading to average global temperature increases up to 1 K and global precipitation rate increases up to 0.09 mm day-1. However, when using a version of CM3 with reduced present-day aerosol radiative forcing (-1.0 W m-2), the global temperature increase for RCP8.5 is about 0.5 K, with similar magnitude decreases in other climate response parameters as well. Regionally and locally, climate impacts can be much larger than the global mean, with a 2.1 K warming projected over China, Japan, and Korea due to the reduced aerosol emissions in RCP8.5, as well as nearly a 0.2 mm day-1 precipitation increase, a 7 g m-2 LWP decrease, and a 2 μm increase in

  17. Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Regional Climate Impact over Middle East and North Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bangalth, H. K.; Stenchikov, G.; Zampieri, M.; Bantges, R.; Brindley, H.

    2012-04-01

    Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is a unique region due in part to the abundance of atmospheric aerosols and their significant contribution to the energy balance of the region. Mineral dust plays a leading role in this process. In this study we evaluate the radiative forcing of dust aerosols in the MENA region and their impact on the regional circulation and temperature distribution using a global high-resolution atmospheric model HIRAM developed at the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. We found that dust aerosols reduce downward radiative fluxes at surface up to 30 W/m2 and warm by about this amount the lower five-km-deep atmospheric layer. To better quantify radiative impact of aerosols we have employed the available aerosol satellite observations that primarily provide column integral aerosol optical depth (AOD), as a measure of aerosol burden. Climatology of AOD from different satellites (MODIS, MISR, SEVIRI and CALIPSO) over MENA and their inter comparison is made to have a comprehension of the discrepancies and agreement between them. Though the observed AODs vary among the different instruments spatially and temporally, the difference falls within a factor of less than two. We implement these observed aerosols in HIRAM. The radiative forcing corresponding to the satellite aerosol observation and the sensitivity of regional climate to this forcing are analyzed. The analysis shows that the differential heating in the vertical and the corresponding response of the vertical temperature profile have a profound impact on the tropospheric dynamics and the structure of the boundary layer.

  18. Radiative forcing and climate response to projected 21st century aerosol decreases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Mauzerall, D. L.

    2015-03-01

    It is widely expected that global emissions of atmospheric aerosols and their precursors will decrease strongly throughout the remainder of the 21st century, due to emission reduction policies enacted to protect human health. For instance, global emissions of aerosols and their precursors are projected to decrease by as much as 80% by the year 2100, according to the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The removal of aerosols will cause unintended climate consequences, including an unmasking of global warming from long-lived greenhouse gases. We use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 3 (GFDL CM3) to simulate future climate over the 21st century with and without the aerosol emission changes projected by each of the RCPs in order to isolate the radiative forcing and climate response resulting from the aerosol reductions. We find that the projected global radiative forcing and climate response due to aerosol decreases do not vary significantly across the four RCPs by 2100, although there is some mid-century variation, especially in cloud droplet effective radius, that closely follows the RCP emissions and energy consumption projections. Up to 1 W m-2 of radiative forcing may be unmasked globally from 2005 to 2100 due to reductions in aerosol and precursor emissions, leading to average global temperature increases up to 1 K and global precipitation rate increases up to 0.09 mm d-1. Regionally and locally, climate impacts can be much larger, with a 2.1 K warming projected over China, Japan, and Korea due to the reduced aerosol emissions in RCP8.5, as well as nearly a 0.2 mm d-1 precipitation increase, a 7 g m-2 LWP decrease, and a 2 μm increase in cloud droplet effective radius. Future aerosol decreases could be responsible for 30-40% of total climate warming by 2100 in East Asia, even under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP8.5). The expected unmasking of global warming caused by aerosol reductions will

  19. Coupling Satellite and Ground-Based Instruments to Map Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosol

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Charlson, Robert J.; Anderson, Theodore L.; Hostetler, Chris (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols is a significant but highly uncertain factor in global climate change. Only satellites can offer the global coverage essential to reducing this uncertainty; however, satellite measurements must be coupled with correlative, in situ measurements both to constrain the aerosol optical properties required in satellite retrieval algorithms and to provide chemical identification of aerosol sources. This grant funded the third year of a three-year project which seeks to develop methodologies for combining spaceborne lidar with in-situ aerosol data sets to improve estimates of direct aerosol climate forcing. Progress under this one-year grant consisted in analysis and publication of field studies using a new in-situ capability for measuring aerosol 180 deg backscatter and the extinction-to-backscatter ratio. This new measurement capacity allows definitive lidar/in-situ comparisons and improves our ability to interpret lidar data in terms of climatically relevant quantities such as the extinction coefficient and optical depth. Analyzed data consisted of measurements made along the coast of Washington State, in Central Illinois, over the Indian Ocean, and in the Central Pacific. Thus, this research, combined with previous measurements by others, is rapidly building toward a global data set of extinction-to-backscatter ratio for key aerosol types. Such information will be critical to interpreting lidar data from the upcoming PICASSO-CENA, or P-C, satellite mission. Another aspect of this project is to investigate innovative ways to couple the lidar-satellite signal with target in-situ measurements toward a direct determination of aerosol forcing. This aspect is progressing in collaboration with NASA Langley's P-C lidar simulator.

  20. Coupling Satellite and Ground-Based Instruments to Map Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Charlson, Robert J.; Anderson, Theodore L.; Hostetler, Chris (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols is a significant but highly uncertain factor in global climate change. Only satellites can offer the global coverage essential to reducing this uncertainty; however, satellite measurements must be coupled with correlative, in situ measurements both to constrain the aerosol optical properties required in satellite retrieval algorithms and to provide chemical identification of aerosol sources. This grant funded the first two years of a three-year project which seeks to develop methodologies for combining spaceborne lidar with in-situ aerosol data sets to improve estimates of direct aerosol climate forcing. Progress under this two-year grant consisted in the development and deployment of a new in-situ capability for measuring aerosol 180' backscatter and the extinction-to-backscatter ratio. This new measurement capacity allows definitive lidar/in-situ comparisons and improves our ability to interpret lidar data in terms of climatically relevant quantities such as the extinction coefficient and optical depth. Measurements were made along the coast of Washington State, in Central Illinois, over the Indian Ocean, and in the Central Pacific. Thus, this research, combined with previous measurements by others, is rapidly building toward a global data set of extinction-to-backscatter ratio for key aerosol types. Such information will be critical to interpreting lidar data from the upcoming PICASSO-CENA, or P-C, satellite mission. Another aspect of this project is to investigate innovative ways to couple the lidar-satellite signal with targeted in-situ measurements toward a direct determination of aerosol forcing. This aspect is progressing in collaboration with NASA Langley's P-C lidar simulator and radiative transfer modeling by the University of Lille, France.

  1. The Spatial and Temporal Heterogeneity of Precipitation and Aerosol-Cloud Radiative Forcing Uncertainty in Climatically Important Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Regayre, L.; Pringle, K.; Lee, L.; Booth, B.; Browse, J.; Mann, G.; Woodhouse, M. T.; Reddington, C.; Carslaw, K. S.; Rap, A.

    2014-12-01

    Aerosol-cloud radiative forcing and precipitation sensitivities are quantified within climatically important regions, where surface temperatures and moisture availability are thought to influence large-scale climatic effects. The sensitivity of precipitation and the balance of incoming and outgoing radiation to uncertain historical aerosol emission fluxes and aerosol-cloud parametrisations are quantified and their climatic importance considered. The predictability of monsoon onset and intensity, position of the inter-tropical convergence zone, tropical storm frequency and intensity, heat transport to the Arctic and changes in the mode of the El Niño Southern Oscillation are all limited by the parametric uncertainties examined here. Precipitation and aerosol-cloud radiative forcing sensitivities are found to be both spatially and temporally heterogeneous. Statistical analysis highlights aspects of aerosol-climate research and model development that should be prioritised in order to reduce the impact of uncertainty in regional precipitation and aerosol-cloud forcing on near-term climate projections.

  2. A Strategy to Assess Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing of Climate Using Satellite Radiation Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kaufman, Yoram J.; Tanre, Didier; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Atmospheric aerosols have a complex internal chemical composition and optical properties. Therefore it is difficult to model their impact on redistribution and absorption of solar radiation, and the consequent impact on atmospheric dynamics and climate. The use in climate models of isolated aerosol parameters retrieved from satellite data (e.g. optical thickness) may result in inconsistent calculations, if the model assumptions differ from these of the satellite retrieval schemes. Here we suggest a strategy to assess the direct impact of aerosol on the radiation budget at the top and bottom of the atmosphere using satellite and ground based measurements of the spectral solar radiation scattered by the aerosol. This method ensures consistent use of the satellite data and increases its accuracy. For Kaufman and Tanre: Strategy for aerosol direct forcing anthropogenic aerosol in the fine mode (e.g. biomass burning smoke and urban pollution) consistent use of satellite derived optical thickness can yield the aerosol impact on the spectral solar flux with accuracy an order of magnitude better than the optical thickness itself. For example, a simulated monthly average smoke optical thickness of 0.5 at 0.55 microns (forcing of 40-50 W/sq m) derived with an error of 20%, while the forcing can be measured directly with an error of only 0-2 W/sq m. Another example, the effect of large dust particles on reflection of solar flux can be derived three times better than retrievals of optical thickness. Since aerosol impacts not only the top of the atmosphere but also the surface irradiation, a combination of satellite and ground based measurements of the spectral flux, can be the most direct mechanism to evaluate the aerosol effect on climate and assimilate it in climate models. The strategy is applied to measurements from SCAR-B and the Tarfox experiments. In SCAR-B aircraft spectral data are used to derive the 24 hour radiative forcing of smoke at the top of the atmosphere of

  3. Climatic Effects of 1950-2050 Changes in US Anthropogenic Aerosols. Part 1; Aerosol Trends and Radiative Forcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leibensperger, E. M.; Mickley, L. J.; Jacob, D. J.; Chen, W.-T.; Seinfeld, J. H.; Nenes, A.; Adams, P. J.; Streets, D. G.; Kumar, N.; Rind, D.

    2012-01-01

    We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950-2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980-2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970-1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100 deg W) of -2.0Wm(exp-2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (-2.0Wm-2), nitrate (-0.2Wm(exp-2), organic carbon (-0.2Wm(exp-2), and black carbon (+0.4Wm(exp-2). The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50 %. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8Wm(exp-2) direct and 1.0Wm(exp-2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3Wm(exp-2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide) suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

  4. The direct radiative forcing effects of aerosols on the climate in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Du, Hui

    The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used to explore the influence of aerosol direct radiative effects on regional climate of California. Aerosol data is provided by the MOZART global chemistry transport model and includes sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, dust and sea salt. To investigate the sensitivity of aerosol radiative effects to different aerosol species and to the quantity of sulfate and dust, tests are conducted by using different combinations of aerosols and by resetting the quantity of sulfate and dust. The model results show that all the considered aerosols could have a cooling effect of one half to one degree in terms of temperature and that dust and sulfate are the most important aerosols. However, large uncertainties exist. The results suggest that the dust from MOZART is greatly overestimated over the simulation domain. The single scattering albedo (SSA) values of dust used in some global climate models are likely underestimated compared to recent studies on dust optical properties and could result in overestimating the corresponding cooling effects by approximately 0.1 degree. Large uncertainties exist in estimating the roles of different forcing factors which are causing the observed temperature change in the past century in California.

  5. Global Distribution and Climate Forcing of Marine Organic Aerosol - Part 2: Effects on Cloud Properties and Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Gantt, Brett; Xu, Jun; Meskhidze, N.; Zhang, Yang; Nenes, Athanasios; Ghan, Steven J.; Liu, Xiaohong; Easter, Richard C.; Zaveri, Rahul A.

    2012-07-25

    A series of simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) with a 7-mode Modal Aerosol Model were conducted to assess the changes in cloud microphysical properties and radiative forcing resulting from marine organic aerosols. Model simulations show that the anthropogenic aerosol indirect forcing (AIF) predicted by CAM5 is decreased in absolute magnitude by up to 0.09 Wm{sup -2} (7 %) when marine organic aerosols are included. Changes in the AIF from marine organic aerosols are associated with small global increases in low-level incloud droplet number concentration and liquid water path of 1.3 cm{sup -3} (1.5 %) and 0.22 gm{sup -2} (0.5 %), respectively. Areas especially sensitive to changes in cloud properties due to marine organic aerosol include the Southern Ocean, North Pacific Ocean, and North Atlantic Ocean, all of which are characterized by high marine organic emission rates. As climate models are particularly sensitive to the background aerosol concentration, this small but non-negligible change in the AIF due to marine organic aerosols provides a notable link for ocean-ecosystem marine low-level cloud interactions and may be a candidate for consideration in future earth system models.

  6. GCM simulations of volcanic aerosol forcing. I - Climate changes induced by steady-state perturbations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pollack, James B.; Rind, David; Lacis, Andrew; Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto

    1993-01-01

    The response of the climate system to a temporally and spatially constant amount of volcanic particles is simulated using a general circulation model (GCM). The optical depth of the aerosols is chosen so as to produce approximately the same amount of forcing as results from doubling the present CO2 content of the atmosphere and from the boundary conditions associated with the peak of the last ice age. The climate changes produced by long-term volcanic aerosol forcing are obtained by differencing this simulation and one made for the present climate with no volcanic aerosol forcing. The simulations indicate that a significant cooling of the troposphere and surface can occur at times of closely spaced multiple sulfur-rich volcanic explosions that span time scales of decades to centuries. The steady-state climate response to volcanic forcing includes a large expansion of sea ice, especially in the Southern Hemisphere; a resultant large increase in surface and planetary albedo at high latitudes; and sizable changes in the annually and zonally averaged air temperature.

  7. Aerosol and ozone changes as forcing for climate evolution between 1850 and 2100

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szopa, Sophie; Balkanski, Y.; Schulz, M.; Bekki, S.; Cugnet, D.; Fortems-Cheiney, A.; Turquety, S.; Cozic, A.; Déandreis, C.; Hauglustaine, D.; Idelkadi, A.; Lathière, J.; Lefevre, F.; Marchand, M.; Vuolo, R.; Yan, N.; Dufresne, J.-L.

    2013-05-01

    Global aerosol and ozone distributions and their associated radiative forcings were simulated between 1850 and 2100 following a recent historical emission dataset and under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) for the future. These simulations were used in an Earth System Model to account for the changes in both radiatively and chemically active compounds, when simulating the climate evolution. The past negative stratospheric ozone trends result in a negative climate forcing culminating at -0.15 W m-2 in the 1990s. In the meantime, the tropospheric ozone burden increase generates a positive climate forcing peaking at 0.41 W m-2. The future evolution of ozone strongly depends on the RCP scenario considered. In RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, the evolution of both stratospheric and tropospheric ozone generate relatively weak radiative forcing changes until 2060-2070 followed by a relative 30 % decrease in radiative forcing by 2100. In contrast, RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 model projections exhibit strongly different ozone radiative forcing trajectories. In the RCP2.6 scenario, both effects (stratospheric ozone, a negative forcing, and tropospheric ozone, a positive forcing) decline towards 1950s values while they both get stronger in the RCP8.5 scenario. Over the twentieth century, the evolution of the total aerosol burden is characterized by a strong increase after World War II until the middle of the 1980s followed by a stabilization during the last decade due to the strong decrease in sulfates in OECD countries since the 1970s. The cooling effects reach their maximal values in 1980, with -0.34 and -0.28 W m-2 respectively for direct and indirect total radiative forcings. According to the RCP scenarios, the aerosol content, after peaking around 2010, is projected to decline strongly and monotonically during the twenty-first century for the RCP8.5, 4.5 and 2.6 scenarios. While for RCP6.0 the decline occurs later, after peaking around 2050. As a consequence the relative

  8. Carbon cycle and climate effects of forcing from fire-emitted aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Damon Matthews, H.

    2017-02-01

    Aerosols emitted by landscape fires affect many climatic processes. Here, we combined an aerosol–climate model and a coupled climate–carbon model to study the carbon cycle and climate effects caused by fire-emitted aerosols (FEA) forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface. This forcing (‘best guess’ present-day values of ‑0.10 and ‑1.3 W m‑2 at the top of the atmosphere and surface, respectively) had a predominant cooling influence that altered regional land carbon stocks on decadal timescales by modifying vegetation productivity and soil–litter decomposition. Changes in regional land and ocean carbon stocks became much stronger for FEA forcing acting on multi-century timescales; this occurred because carbon stocks responded to the forcing itself on such timescales and also due to gradual effects on the climate (e.g. through increased sea ice cover) that further affected the carbon cycle. Carbon increases and decreases in different regions partly offset each other, so that absolute changes in global land, atmosphere, and ocean stocks were all <2 Pg C after 30 years of FEA forcing and <6 Pg C after more than 1000 years of FEA forcing. FEA-caused changes in land carbon storage did not substantially modify the magnitude of FEA emissions, suggesting there is no consequential regional-scale positive feedback loop between these two elements. However, we found indications that the FEA-caused cooling from frequently-burning regions in Africa and Australia increased land carbon stocks in eastern South America and equatorial Asia, respectively. This suggests the potential for remote carbon cycle effects from regions emitting large amounts of fire aerosols.

  9. The Impact of humidity above stratiform clouds on indirect aerosol climate forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Ackerman, A S; Kirkpatrick, M P; Stevens, D E; Toon, O B

    2004-12-20

    Some of the global warming effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases is offset by increased solar reflection from clouds with smaller droplets that form on increased numbers of cloud condensation nuclei in polluted air. The global magnitude of the resulting indirect aerosol climate forcing is estimated to be comparable (and opposed) to the anthropogenic carbon dioxide forcing, but estimates are highly uncertain because of complexities in characterizing the physical process that determine global aerosol and cloud populations and their interactions. Beyond reflecting sunlight more effectively, smaller droplets are less efficient at producing precipitation, and decreased precipitation is expected to result in increased cloud water and cloud cover, further increasing the indirect forcing. Yet polluted marine boundary-layer clouds are not generally observed to hold more water. Here we use model simulations of stratocumulus clouds to show that suppression of precipitation from increased droplet concentrations leads to increased cloud water only when sufficient precipitation reaches the surface, a condition favored when the overlying air is moist. Otherwise, aerosol induced suppression of precipitation enhances entrainment of overlying dry air, thereby reducing cloud water and diminishing the indirect climate forcing.

  10. Microphysical and compositional influences on shortwave radiative forcing of climate by sulfate aerosols

    SciTech Connect

    Schwartz, S F; Wagener, Richard; Nemesure, S

    1995-01-01

    Anthropogenic sulfate aerosols scatter shortwave (solar) radiation incident upon the atmosphere, thereby exerting a cooling influence on climate relative to pre-industrial times. Previous estimates of this forcing place its global and annual average value at about -1 W m{sup -2}, uncertain to a factor of somewhat more than 2, comparable in magnitude to greenhouse gas forcing over the same period but opposite in sign and much more uncertain. Key sources of uncertainty are atmospheric chemistry factors (yield, residence time), and microphysical factors (scattering efficiency, upscatter fraction, and the dependence of these quantities on particle size and relative humidity, RH). This paper examines these microphysical influences to identify properties required to obtain more a accurate description of this forcing. The mass scattering efficiency exhibits a maximum at a particle diameter ({approximately}0.5 M) roughly equal to the wavelength of maximum power in the solar spectrum and roughly equal to diameter typical of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. Particle size, and hence mass scattering efficiency, increase with increasing on RH because of accretion of water by deliquescent salt aerosols. For example the scattering efficiency of aqueous (NH{sub 4}){sub 2}SO{sub 4} (dry radius 0.2 {mu}m) increases from 8 to 80 m{sup 2}/g (SO{sub 4}{sup 2-}) as RH increases from 39 to 97%. The sensitivity of forcing to particle dry mass and relative humidity suggest the need to explicitly represent these properties if the sulfate aerosol forcing is to be accurately described in climate models.

  11. Nonlinear effects of anthropogenic aerosol and urban land surface forcing on spring climate in eastern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Jiechun; Xu, Haiming; Zhang, Leying

    2016-05-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols and urban land cover change induce opposite thermal effects on the atmosphere near surface as well as in the troposphere. One can think of these anthropogenic effects as composed of two parts: the individual effect due to an individual anthropogenic forcing and the nonlinear effects resulting from the coexistence of two forcing factors. In this study, we explored the role of such nonlinear effects in affecting East Asian climate, as well as individual forcing effects, using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 coupled with the Community Land Model version 4. Atmospheric responses were simulated by including anthropogenic aerosol emission only, urban cover only, or the combination of the two, over eastern China. Results showed that nonlinear responses were different from any effects by an individual forcing or the linear combination of individual responses. The nonlinear interaction could generate cold horizontal temperature advection to cool the troposphere, which induced anomalous subsidence along the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). This anomalous vertical motion, together with a weakened low-level southwesterly, favored below-normal (above-normal) rainfall over the YRV (southern China), shifting the spring rain belt southward. The resultant diabatic cooling, in turn, amplified the anomalous descent and further decreased tropospheric temperature over the YRV, forming a positive feedback loop to maintain the nonlinear effects. Consequently, the nonlinear effects acted to reduce the climate anomalies from a simple linear combination of two individual effects and played an important role in regional responses to one anthropogenic forcing when the other is prescribed.

  12. The impact of humidity above stratiform clouds on indirect aerosol climate forcing.

    PubMed

    Ackerman, Andrew S; Kirkpatrick, Michael P; Stevens, David E; Toon, Owen B

    2004-12-23

    Some of the global warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gases is offset by increased reflection of solar radiation by clouds with smaller droplets that form in air polluted with aerosol particles that serve as cloud condensation nuclei. The resulting cooling tendency, termed the indirect aerosol forcing, is thought to be comparable in magnitude to the forcing by anthropogenic CO2, but it is difficult to estimate because the physical processes that determine global aerosol and cloud populations are poorly understood. Smaller cloud droplets not only reflect sunlight more effectively, but also inhibit precipitation, which is expected to result in increased cloud water. Such an increase in cloud water would result in even more reflective clouds, further increasing the indirect forcing. Marine boundary-layer clouds polluted by aerosol particles, however, are not generally observed to hold more water. Here we simulate stratocumulus clouds with a fluid dynamics model that includes detailed treatments of cloud microphysics and radiative transfer. Our simulations show that the response of cloud water to suppression of precipitation from increased droplet concentrations is determined by a competition between moistening from decreased surface precipitation and drying from increased entrainment of overlying air. Only when the overlying air is humid or droplet concentrations are very low does sufficient precipitation reach the surface to allow cloud water to increase with droplet concentrations. Otherwise, the response of cloud water to aerosol-induced suppression of precipitation is dominated by enhanced entrainment of overlying dry air. In this scenario, cloud water is reduced as droplet concentrations increase, which diminishes the indirect climate forcing.

  13. Direct shortwave forcing of climate by anthropogenic sulfate aerosol: Sensitivity to particle size, composition, and relative humidity

    SciTech Connect

    Nemesure, S.; Wagener, R.; Schwartz, S.E.

    1996-04-01

    Recent estimates of global or hemispheric average forcing of climate by anthropogenic sulfate aerosol due to scattering of shortwave radiation are uncertain by more than a factor of 2. This paper examines the sensitivity of forcing to these microphysical properties for the purposes of obtaining a better understanding of the properties required to reduce the uncertainty in the forcing.

  14. On the Feasibility of Studying Shortwave Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Using Dual-Wavelength Aerosol Backscatter Lidar

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Redemann, Jens; Russell, Philip B.; Winker, David M.; McCormick, M. Patrick; Hipskind, R. Stephen (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The current low confidence in the estimates of aerosol-induced perturbations of Earth's radiation balance is caused by the highly non-uniform compositional, spatial and temporal distributions of tropospheric aerosols on a global scale owing to their heterogeneous sources and short lifetimes. Nevertheless, recent studies have shown that the inclusion of aerosol effects in climate model calculations can improve agreement with observed spatial and temporal temperature distributions. In light of the short lifetimes of aerosols, determination of their global distribution with space-borne sensors seems to be a necessary approach. Until recently, satellite measurements of tropospheric aerosols have been approximate and did not provide the full set of information required to determine their radiative effects. With the advent of active aerosol remote sensing from space (e.g., PICASSO-CENA), the applicability fo lidar-derived aerosol 180 deg -backscatter data to radiative flux calculations and hence studies of aerosol effects on climate needs to be investigated.

  15. Constraining Carbonaceous Aerosol Climate Forcing by Bridging Laboratory, Field and Modeling Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dubey, M. K.; Aiken, A. C.; Liu, S.; Saleh, R.; Cappa, C. D.; Williams, L. R.; Donahue, N. M.; Gorkowski, K.; Ng, N. L.; Mazzoleni, C.; China, S.; Sharma, N.; Yokelson, R. J.; Allan, J. D.; Liu, D.

    2014-12-01

    Biomass and fossil fuel combustion emits black (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) aerosols that absorb sunlight to warm climate and organic carbon (OC) aerosols that scatter sunlight to cool climate. The net forcing depends strongly on the composition, mixing state and transformations of these carbonaceous aerosols. Complexities from large variability of fuel types, combustion conditions and aging processes have confounded their treatment in models. We analyse recent laboratory and field measurements to uncover fundamental mechanism that control the chemical, optical and microphysical properties of carbonaceous aerosols that are elaborated below: Wavelength dependence of absorption and the single scattering albedo (ω) of fresh biomass burning aerosols produced from many fuels during FLAME-4 was analysed to determine the factors that control the variability in ω. Results show that ω varies strongly with fire-integrated modified combustion efficiency (MCEFI)—higher MCEFI results in lower ω values and greater spectral dependence of ω (Liu et al GRL 2014). A parameterization of ω as a function of MCEFI for fresh BB aerosols is derived from the laboratory data and is evaluated by field data, including BBOP. Our laboratory studies also demonstrate that BrC production correlates with BC indicating that that they are produced by a common mechanism that is driven by MCEFI (Saleh et al NGeo 2014). We show that BrC absorption is concentrated in the extremely low volatility component that favours long-range transport. We observe substantial absorption enhancement for internally mixed BC from diesel and wood combustion near London during ClearFlo. While the absorption enhancement is due to BC particles coated by co-emitted OC in urban regions, it increases with photochemical age in rural areas and is simulated by core-shell models. We measure BrC absorption that is concentrated in the extremely low volatility components and attribute it to wood burning. Our results support

  16. Microphysical and compositional influences on shortwave radiative forcing of climate by sulfate aerosols

    SciTech Connect

    Schwartz, S.E.; Wagener, R.; Nemesure, S.

    1995-02-01

    Anthropogenic sulfate aerosols scatter shortwave (solar) radiation iincident upon the atmosphere, thereby exerting a cooling influence on climate relative to pre-industrial times. Previous estimates of this forcing place its global and annual average value at about {minus}1 W M{sup {minus}2}, uncertain to a factor of somewhat more than 2, comparable in magnitude to greenhouse gas forcing over the same period but opposite in sign and much more uncertain. Key sources of uncertainty are atmospheric chemistry factors (yield, residence time), and microphysical factors (scattering efficiency, upscatter fraction, and the dependence of these quantities on particle size and relative humidity, RH). This paper examines these microphysical influences to indentify properties required to obtain more a accurate description of this forcing. The mass scattering efficiency exhibits a maximum at a particle diameter ({approximately}0.5 {mu}m) roughly equal to the wavelength of maximum power in the solar spectrum and roughly equal to diameter typical of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. Particle size, and hence mass scattering efficiency, increase with increasing on RH because of accretion of water by deliquescent salt aerosols.

  17. Future Projections of Aerosol Optical Depth, Radiative Forcing, and Climate Response Due to Declining Aerosol Emissions in the Representative Concentration Pathways

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westervelt, D. M.; Mauzerall, D. L.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.

    2014-12-01

    It is widely expected that global emissions of atmospheric aerosols and their precursors will decrease strongly throughout the remainder of the 21st century, due to emission reduction policies enacted based on human health concerns. However, the resulting decrease in atmospheric aerosol burden will have unintended climate consequences. Since aerosols generally exert a net cooling influence on the climate, their removal will lead to an unmasking of global warming as well as other changes to the climate system. Aerosol and precursor global emissions decrease by as much as 80% by the year 2100, according to projections in four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. We use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 3 (GFDL CM3) to simulate future climate over the 21st century with and without aerosol emission changes projected by the RCPs in order to isolate the radiative forcing and climate response due to the aerosol reductions. We find that up to 1 W m-2 of radiative forcing may be unmasked globally by 2100 due to reductions in aerosol and precursor emissions, leading to average global temperature increases up to 1 K and global precipitation rate increases up to 0.09 mm d-1 (3%). Regionally and locally, climate impacts are much larger, as RCP8.5 projects a 2.1 K warming over China, Japan, and Korea due to reduced aerosol emissions. Our results highlight the importance of crafting emissions control policies with both climate and air pollution benefits in mind. The expected unmasking of additional global warming from aerosol reductions highlights the importance of robust greenhouse gas mitigation policies and may require more aggressive policies than anticipated.

  18. Direct Radiative Forcing and Regional Climatic Effects of Anthropogenic Aerosols Over East Asia: A Regional Coupled Climate-Chemistry/Aerosol Model Study

    SciTech Connect

    Giorgi, Filippo; Bi, Xunqiang; Qian, Yun )

    2002-09-01

    We present a series of regional climate model simulations aimed at assessing the radiative forcing and surface climatic effects of anthropogenic sulfate and fossil fuel soot over east Asia. The simulations are carried out with a coupled regional climate-chemistry/aerosol model for the 5-year period of 1993-1997 using published estimates of sulfur emissions for the period. Anthropogenic sulfate induces a negative radiative forcing spatially varying from -1 to -8 W/m2 in the winter to -1 to -15 W/m2 in the summer, with maxima over the Sichan Basin of southwest China and over some areas of east and northeast China. This forcing induces a surface cooling in the range of -0.1 to -0.7 K. Fossil fuel soot exerts a positive atmospheric radiative forcing of 0.5 to 2 W/m2 and enhances the surface cooling by a few tenths of K due to increased surface shielding from solar radiation. Doubling of sulfur emissions induces a substantial increase in radiative forcing (up to -7 to -8 W/m2) and associated surface cooling. With doubled sulfur emissions, the surface cooling exceeds -1 K and is statistically significant at the 90% confidence level over various areas of China. The aerosol forcing and surface cooling tend to inhibit precipitation over the region, although this effect is relatively small in the simulations. Some features of the simulated aerosol-induced cooling are consistent with temperature trends observed in recent decades over different regions of China.

  19. Future Climate Impacts of Direct Radiative Forcing Anthropogenic Aerosols, Tropospheric Ozone, and Long-lived Greenhouse Gases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, Wei-Ting; Liao, Hong; Seinfeld, John H.

    2007-01-01

    Long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the most important driver of climate change over the next century. Aerosols and tropospheric ozone (O3) are expected to induce significant perturbations to the GHG-forced climate. To distinguish the equilibrium climate responses to changes in direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG between present day and year 2100, four 80-year equilibrium climates are simulated using a unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 110. Concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, primary organic (POA) carbon, secondary organic (SOA) carbon, black carbon (BC) aerosols, and tropospheric ozone for present day and year 2100 are obtained a priori by coupled chemistry-aerosol GCM simulations, with emissions of aerosols, ozone, and precursors based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A2. Changing anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG from present day to year 2100 is predicted to perturb the global annual mean radiative forcing by +0.18 (considering aerosol direct effects only), +0.65, and +6.54 W m(sup -2) at the tropopause, and to induce an equilibrium global annual mean surface temperature change of +0.14, +0.32, and +5.31 K, respectively, with the largest temperature response occurring at northern high latitudes. Anthropogenic aerosols, through their direct effect, are predicted to alter the Hadley circulation owing to an increasing interhemispheric temperature gradient, leading to changes in tropical precipitation. When changes in both aerosols and tropospheric ozone are considered, the predicted patterns of change in global circulation and the hydrological cycle are similar to those induced by aerosols alone. GHG-induced climate changes, such as amplified warming over high latitudes, weakened Hadley circulation, and increasing precipitation over the

  20. Timing, global aerosol forcing, and climate impact of volcanic eruptions during the Common Era

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sigl, Michael; McConnell, Joseph R.; Winstrup, Mai; Welten, Kees C.; Plunkett, Gill; Ludlow, Francis; Toohey, Matthew; Büntgen, Ulf; Caffee, Marc; Kipfstuhl, Sepp; Kostick, Conor; Krüger, Kirstin; Maselli, Olivia J.; Mulvaney, Robert; Woodruff, Thomas E.

    2015-04-01

    Early documentary records report of a mysterious dust cloud that was covering Europe for 12 months in 536-37 CE, which was followed by climatic downturn and societal decline globally. Tree rings and other climate proxies have corroborated the occurrence of this event as well as characterized its extent and duration, but failed to trace its origin. By using a multi-disciplinary approach that integrates novel, global-scale age markers with state-of-the-art continuous ice core aerosol measurements, automated objective ice-core layer counting, tephra analyses, and detailed examination of historical archives, we developed an accurate volcanic forcing series from bipolar ice-core arrays back into early Roman times. Our study reconciles human and natural archives - demonstrated by the synchronicity of major volcanic eruption dates to historical documentary records and the now consistent response of tree-ring-reconstructed cooling extremes occurring in the immediate aftermath of large volcanic eruptions throughout the past 2,000 years. These findings have significant implications in multiple research fields including (1) quantification and attribution of climate variations to external solar and volcanic forcing and (2) improvement of reconstructions of climate variations from multi-proxy networks comprising tree-ring and/or ice-core data (e.g., PAGES 2k).

  1. Evolution of aerosol properties impacting visibility and direct climate forcing in an ammonia-rich urban environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Langridge, Justin M.; Lack, Daniel; Brock, Charles A.; Bahreini, Roya; Middlebrook, Ann M.; Neuman, J. Andrew; Nowak, John B.; Perring, Anne E.; Schwarz, Joshua P.; Spackman, J. Ryan; Holloway, John S.; Pollack, Ilana B.; Ryerson, Thomas B.; Roberts, James M.; Warneke, Carsten; Gouw, Joost A.; Trainer, Michael K.; Murphy, Daniel M.

    2011-11-01

    Airborne measurements of sub-micron aerosol and trace gases downwind of Los Angeles are used to investigate the influence of aging on aerosol properties relevant to climate forcing and visibility. The analysis focuses on the Los Angeles plume, which in addition to strong urban emissions is influenced by local agricultural emissions. Secondary organic aerosol formation and repartitioning of semi-volatile ammonium nitrate were identified as key factors controlling the optical behavior observed. For one case study, ammonium nitrate contributed up to 50% of total dry extinction. At 85% relative humidity, extinction in the fresh plume was enhanced by a factor of ˜1.7, and 60-80% of this was from water associated with ammonium nitrate. On this day, loss of ammonium nitrate resulted in decreasing aerosol hygroscopicity with aging. Failing to account for loss of ammonium nitrate led to overestimation of the radiative cooling exerted by the most aged aerosol by ˜35% under dry conditions. These results show that changes to aerosol behavior with aging can impact visibility and climate forcing significantly. The importance of ammonium nitrate and water also highlight the need to improve the current representation of semi-volatile aerosol species in large-scale climate models.

  2. Evolution of aerosol properties impacting visibility and direct climate forcing in an ammonia-rich urban environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Langridge, Justin M.; Lack, Daniel; Brock, Charles A.; Bahreini, Roya; Middlebrook, Ann M.; Neuman, J. Andrew; Nowak, John B.; Perring, Anne E.; Schwarz, Joshua P.; Spackman, J. Ryan; Holloway, John S.; Pollack, Ilana B.; Ryerson, Thomas B.; Roberts, James M.; Warneke, Carsten; de Gouw, Joost A.; Trainer, Michael K.; Murphy, Daniel M.

    2012-03-01

    Airborne measurements of sub-micron aerosol and trace gases downwind of Los Angeles are used to investigate the influence of aging on aerosol properties relevant to climate forcing and visibility. The analysis focuses on the Los Angeles plume, which in addition to strong urban emissions is influenced by local agricultural emissions. Secondary organic aerosol formation and repartitioning of semi-volatile ammonium nitrate were identified as key factors controlling the optical behavior observed. For one case study, ammonium nitrate contributed up to 50% of total dry extinction. At 85% relative humidity, extinction in the fresh plume was enhanced by a factor of ˜1.7, and 60-80% of this was from water associated with ammonium nitrate. On this day, loss of ammonium nitrate resulted in decreasing aerosol hygroscopicity with aging. Failing to account for loss of ammonium nitrate led to overestimation of the radiative cooling exerted by the most aged aerosol by ˜35% under dry conditions. These results show that changes to aerosol behavior with aging can impact visibility and climate forcing significantly. The importance of ammonium nitrate and water also highlight the need to improve the current representation of semi-volatile aerosol species in large-scale climate models.

  3. Mechanisms of African Aerosol-Climate Interactions and their Forcing on Dynamical Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosseinpour, F.; Wilcox, E. M.

    2012-12-01

    African climate is often interpreted as a continental scale phenomenon which could have strong complex remote influences on global atmospheric circulation, as well as large scale patterns of climate variability and climate change. More than 90% of aerosol optical depth (AOD) over West Africa, and more than 80% over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean during summer are contributed by dust particles (K. M. Lau et. al., 2009). Dust aerosols and smoke from wildfires can propagate vertically above the boundary layer, which allows zonal winds in mid-troposphere to transport them thousands of kilometers horizontally. This process can extend their atmospheric life cycles, and their global climatic impact. In this study, ensemble of the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data sets for warm season were used to better understand the long-term effect of African radiative forcing on large-scale dynamical systems, and their interaction with climatic circulations. In cloud free condition, strong positive correlation exists between the total precipitation and soil wetness over western tropics of Africa and AOD for dust particles over Northern Africa. Increasing absorption of short-wave radiation by smoke in South-West Africa is accompanied with more precipitation in the ITCZ, which is associated with positive core of vorticity at 500 hPa over western African tropical region. African dust and smoke has warming effect in the vertical averaged of troposphere. In warm season, the long-term average of atmospheric heating due to dust and smoke ranges from 10 to 35 Wm-2. Furthermore, the climatic variability is the least over western tropics of Africa which could be due to feedback of soil memory. Convection along with the net downward long-wave radiative flux at surface has increased over the northern African dust region, while these components have decreased over the southern African

  4. A Study of Direct and Cloud-Mediated Radiative Forcing of Climate Due to Aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yu, Shao-Cai

    1999-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has reported that in the southeastern US and eastern China, the general greenhouse warming due to anthropogenic gaseous emissions is dominated by the cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols. To verify this model prediction in eastern China and southeastern US, we analyzed regional patterns of climate changes at 72 stations in eastern China during 1951- 94 (44 years), and at 52 stations in the southeastern US during 1949-94 (46 years) to detect the fingerprint of aerosol radiative forcing. It was found that the mean rates of change of annual mean daily, maximum, minimum temperatures and diurnal temperature range (DTR) in eastern China were 0.8, -0.2, 1.8, and -2.0 C/100 years respectively, while the mean rates of change of annual mean daily, maximum, minimum temperatures and DTR in the southeastern US were -0.2, -0.6, 0.2, and -0.8 C/100 years, respectively. This indicates that the high rate of increase in annual mean minimum temperature in eastern China results in a slightly warming trend of daily temperature, while the high rate of decrease in annual mean maximum temperature and low rate of increase in annual mean minimum temperature lead to the cooling trend of daily temperature in the southeastern US. We found that the warming from the longwave forcing due to both greenhouse gases and aerosols was completely counteracted by the shortwave aerosol forcing in the southeastern US in the past 46 years. A slightly overall warming trend in eastern China is evident; winters have become milder. This finding is explained by hypothesizing that increasing energy usage during the past 44 years has resulted in more coal and biomass burning, thus increasing the emission of absorbing soot and organic aerosols in eastern China. Such emissions, in addition to well-known Asia dust and greenhouse gases, may be responsible for the winter warming trend in eastern China that we have reported here. The sensitivity of aerosol

  5. AEROSOL, CLOUDS, AND CLIMATE CHANGE

    SciTech Connect

    SCHWARTZ, S.E.

    2005-09-01

    Earth's climate is thought to be quite sensitive to changes in radiative fluxes that are quite small in absolute magnitude, a few watts per square meter, and in relation to these fluxes in the natural climate. Atmospheric aerosol particles exert influence on climate directly, by scattering and absorbing radiation, and indirectly by modifying the microphysical properties of clouds and in turn their radiative effects and hydrology. The forcing of climate change by these indirect effects is thought to be quite substantial relative to forcing by incremental concentrations of greenhouse gases, but highly uncertain. Quantification of aerosol indirect forcing by satellite- or ground-based remote sensing has proved quite difficult in view of inherent large variation in the pertinent observables such as cloud optical depth, which is controlled mainly by liquid water path and only secondarily by aerosols. Limited work has shown instances of large magnitude of aerosol indirect forcing, with local instantaneous forcing upwards of 50 W m{sup 66}-2. Ultimately it will be necessary to represent aerosol indirect effects in climate models to accurately identify the anthropogenic forcing at present and over secular time and to assess the influence of this forcing in the context of other forcings of climate change. While the elements of aerosol processes that must be represented in models describing the evolution and properties of aerosol particles that serve as cloud condensation particles are known, many important components of these processes remain to be understood and to be represented in models, and the models evaluated against observation, before such model-based representations can confidently be used to represent aerosol indirect effects in climate models.

  6. Radiative forcing of climate in the western Antarctic Peninsula: Effects of cloud, surface, and aerosol properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Payton, Allison Mccomiskey

    2003-12-01

    Polar regions are expected to show early and extreme responses to a rise in average global temperatures. The region west of the Antarctic Peninsula has shown a significant rise in temperature of the past half century while temperatures over the rest of the continent are decreasing. Approximately half of the warming over the western Antarctic Peninsula has been explained by changes in atmospheric circulation. This research has examined local climate feedback processes involving aerosols, clouds, and surface properties relative to sea ice cover, to explain the remainder of the warming, and addresses the most appropriate approach in examining local radiative processes. Two data sets are used: a highly resolved ground-based data set from the spring and summer season of 1999 2000 at Palmer Station, Antarctica and a 14 year satellite-derived data set. A three- dimensional radiative transfer model is shown to perform better than the plane-parallel models traditionally used for this application. Aerosol concentrations are low, as expected, and have a typical optical depth of 0.05 which has little effect on surface radiation budgets and climate feedback processes. An absorption process is found on three clear-sky days that accounts for 5 20 W·m-2 of energy absorbed by the atmosphere. The absorption process is of unknown origin. Cloud properties over the short- and long-term were found to be invariant with time and changes in temperature except in the summer season. Cloud radiative forcing was negative throughout the 14 year time period, but the majority of this effect was attributed to changes in surface properties (decreasing reflectance) rather than increasing cloud amount or thickness. The trend in cloud cover over the long-term and the effect of clouds on climate appears to be different in the region of the western Antarctic Peninsula than in the Arctic.

  7. Aerosol Radiative Effects: Expected Variations in Optical Depth Spectra and Climate Forcing, with Implications for Closure Experiment Strategies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Russell, Philip B.; Stowe, L. L.; Hobbs, P. V.; Podolske, James R. (Technical Monitor)

    1995-01-01

    We examine measurement strategies for reducing uncertainties in aerosol direct radiative forcing by focused experiments that combine surface, air, and space measurements. Particularly emphasized are closure experiments, which test the degree of agreement among different measurements and calculations of aerosol properties and radiative effects. By combining results from previous measurements of large-scale smokes, volcanic aerosols, and anthropogenic aerosols with models of aerosol evolution, we estimate the spatial and temporal variability in optical depth spectra to be expected in the Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observational Experiment (TARFOX, planned for summer 1996 off the Eastern U.S. seaboard). In particular, we examine the expected changes in the wavelength dependence of optical depth as particles evolve through nucleation, growth by condensation and coagulation, and removal via sedimentation. We then calculate the expected radiative climate forcing (i.e. change in net radiative flux) for typical expected aerosols and measurement conditions (e.g. solar elevations, surface albedos, radiometer altitudes). These calculations use new expressions for flux and albedo changes, which account not only for aerosol absorption, but also for instantaneous solar elevation angles and the dependence of surface albedo on solar elevation. These factors, which are usually ignored or averaged in calculations of global aerosol effects, can have a strong influence on fluxes measured in closure experiments, and hence must be accounted for in calculations if closure is to be convincingly tested. We compare the expected measurement signal to measurement uncertainties expected for various techniques in various conditions. Thereby we derive recommendations for measurement strategies that combine surface, airborne, and spaceborne measurements.

  8. Toward a Minimal Representation of Aerosols in Climate Models: Comparative Decomposition of Aerosol Direct, Semidirect, and Indirect Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Ghan, Steven J.; Liu, Xiaohong; Easter, Richard C.; Zaveri, Rahul A.; Rasch, Philip J.; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Eaton, Brian

    2012-10-01

    The authors have decomposed the anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing into direct contributions from each aerosol species to the planetary energy balance through absorption and scattering of solar radiation, indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosol on solar and infrared radiation through droplet and crystal nucleation on aerosol, and semidirect effects through the influence of solar absorption on the distribution of clouds. A three-mode representation of the aerosol in version 5.1 of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5.1) yields global annual mean radiative forcing estimates for each of these forcing mechanisms that are within 0.1 W m–2 of estimates using a more complex seven-mode representation that distinguishes between fresh and aged black carbon and primary organic matter. Simulating fresh black carbon particles separately from internally mixed accumulation mode particles is found to be important only near fossil fuel sources. In addition to the usual large indirect effect on solar radiation, this study finds an unexpectedly large positive longwave indirect effect (because of enhanced cirrus produced by homogenous nucleation of ice crystals on anthropogenic sulfate), small shortwave and longwave semidirect effects, and a small direct effect (because of cancelation and interactions of direct effects of black carbon and sulfate). Differences between the threemode and seven-mode versions are significantly larger (up to 0.2 W m–2) when the hygroscopicity of primary organic matter is decreased from 0.1 to 0 and transfer of the primary carbonaceous aerosol to the accumulation mode in the seven-mode version requires more hygroscopic material coating the primary particles. Radiative forcing by cloudborne anthropogenic black carbon is only 20.07 W m–2.

  9. A global model simulation of present and future nitrate aerosols and their direct radiative forcing of climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hauglustaine, D. A.; Balkanski, Y.; Schulz, M.

    2014-03-01

    The ammonia cycle and nitrate particle formation have been introduced in the LMDz-INCA global model. Both fine nitrate particles formation in the accumulation mode and coarse nitrate forming on existing dust and sea-salt particles are considered. The model simulates distributions of nitrates and related species in agreement with previous studies and observations. The calculated present-day total nitrate direct radiative forcing since the pre-industrial is -0.056 W m-2. This forcing has the same magnitude than the forcing associated with organic carbon particles and represents 18% of the sulfate forcing. Fine particles largely dominate the nitrate forcing representing close to 90% of this value. The model has been used to investigate the future changes in nitrates and direct radiative forcing of climate based on snapshot simulations for the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and for the 2030, 2050 and 2100 time horizons. Due to a decrease in fossil fuel emissions in the future, the concentrations of most of the species involved in the nitrate-ammonium-sulfate system drop by 2100 except for ammonia which originates from agricultural practices and for which emissions significantly increase in the future. Despite the decrease of nitrate surface levels in Europe and Northern America, the global burden of accumulation mode nitrates increases by up to a factor of 2.6 in 2100. This increase in nitrate in the future arises despite decreasing NOx emissions due to increased availability of ammonia to form ammonium nitrate. The total aerosol direct forcing decreases from its present-day value of -0.234 W m-2 to a range of -0.070 to -0.130 W m-2 in 2100 based on the considered scenario. The direct forcing decreases for all aerosols except for nitrates for which the direct negative forcing increases to a range of -0.060 to -0.115 W m-2 in 2100. Including nitrates in the radiative forcing calculations increases the total direct forcing of aerosols by a

  10. Aerosol forcing in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations by HadGEM2-ES and the role of ammonium nitrate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bellouin, Nicolas; Rae, Jamie; Jones, Andy; Johnson, Colin; Haywood, Jim; Boucher, Olivier

    2011-10-01

    The latest Hadley Centre climate model, HadGEM2-ES, includes Earth system components such as interactive chemistry and eight species of tropospheric aerosols. It has been run for the period 1860-2100 in support of the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Anthropogenic aerosol emissions peak between 1980 and 2020, resulting in a present-day all-sky top of the atmosphere aerosol forcing of -1.6 and -1.4 W m-2 with and without ammonium nitrate aerosols, respectively, for the sum of direct and first indirect aerosol forcings. Aerosol forcing becomes significantly weaker in the 21st century, being weaker than -0.5 W m-2 in 2100 without nitrate. However, nitrate aerosols become the dominant species in Europe and Asia and decelerate the decrease in global mean aerosol forcing. Considering nitrate aerosols makes aerosol radiative forcing 2-4 times stronger by 2100 depending on the representative concentration pathway, although this impact is lessened when changes in the oxidation properties of the atmosphere are accounted for. Anthropogenic aerosol residence times increase in the future in spite of increased precipitation, as cloud cover and aerosol-cloud interactions decrease in tropical and midlatitude regions. Deposition of fossil fuel black carbon onto snow and ice surfaces peaks during the 20th century in the Arctic and Europe but keeps increasing in the Himalayas until the middle of the 21st century. Results presented here confirm the importance of aerosols in influencing the Earth's climate, albeit with a reduced impact in the future, and suggest that nitrate aerosols will partially replace sulphate aerosols to become an important anthropogenic species in the remainder of the 21st century.

  11. Pollution trends over Europe constrain global aerosol forcing as simulated by climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cherian, Ribu; Quaas, Johannes; Salzmann, Marc; Wild, Martin

    2014-03-01

    An increasing trend in surface solar radiation (solar brightening) has been observed over Europe since the 1990s, linked to economic developments and air pollution regulations and their direct as well as cloud-mediated effects on radiation. Here, we find that the all-sky solar brightening trend (1990-2005) over Europe from seven out of eight models (historical simulations in the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) scales well with the regional and global mean effective forcing by anthropogenic aerosols (idealized "present-day" minus "preindustrial" runs). The reason for this relationship is that models that simulate stronger forcing efficiencies and stronger radiative effects by aerosol-cloud interactions show both a stronger aerosol forcing and a stronger solar brightening. The all-sky solar brightening is the observable from measurements (4.06±0.60 W m-2 decade-1), which then allows to infer a global mean total aerosol effective forcing at about -1.30 W m-2 with standard deviation ±0.40 W m-2.

  12. Aerosol, radiation, and climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pollack, J. B.

    1983-01-01

    Airborne, spaceborne, and ground-based measurements are used to study the radiative and climatic effects of aerosols. The data, which are modelled with a hierarchy of radiation and climate models, and their implications are summarized. Consideration is given to volcanic aerosols, polar stratospheric clouds, and the Arctic haze. It is shown that several types of aerosols (volcanic particles and the Arctic haze) cause significant alterations to the radiation budget of the regions where they are located.

  13. Global distribution and climate forcing of marine organic aerosol: 1. Model improvements and evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Meskhidze, N.; Xu, J.; Gantt, Brett; Zhang, Yang; Nenes, Athanasios; Ghan, Steven J.; Liu, Xiaohong; Easter, Richard C.; Zaveri, Rahul A.

    2011-11-23

    -salt provides diverse results with increases and decreases in the concentration of CCN over different parts of the ocean. The sign of the CCN change due to the addition of marine organics to seasalt aerosol is determined by the relative significance of the increase in mean modal diameter due to addition of mass, and the decrease in particle hygroscopicity due to compositional changes in marine aerosol. Based on emerging evidence for increased CCN concentration over biologically active surface ocean areas/periods, our study suggests that treatment of sea spray in global climate models (GCMs) as an internal mixture of marine organic aerosols and sea-salt will likely lead to an underestimation in CCN number concentration.

  14. Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty

    DOE Data Explorer

    Mccomiskey, Allison

    2008-01-15

    Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF due to measurement uncertainty in the quantities on which it depends: aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, solar geometry, and surface albedo. Direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface as well as sensitivities, the changes in DRF in response to unit changes in individual aerosol or surface properties, are calculated at three locations representing distinct aerosol types and radiative environments. The uncertainty in DRF associated with a given property is computed as the product of the sensitivity and typical measurement uncertainty in the respective aerosol or surface property. Sensitivity and uncertainty values permit estimation of total uncertainty in calculated DRF and identification of properties that most limit accuracy in estimating forcing. Total uncertainties in modeled local diurnally averaged forcing range from 0.2 to 1.3 W m-2 (42 to 20%) depending on location (from tropical to polar sites), solar zenith angle, surface reflectance, aerosol type, and aerosol optical depth. The largest contributor to total uncertainty in DRF is usually single scattering albedo; however decreasing measurement uncertainties for any property would increase accuracy in DRF. Comparison of two radiative transfer models suggests the contribution of modeling error is small compared to the total uncertainty although comparable to uncertainty arising from some individual properties.

  15. Climate forcings and feedbacks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James

    1993-01-01

    Global temperature has increased significantly during the past century. Understanding the causes of observed global temperature change is impossible in the absence of adequate monitoring of changes in global climate forcings and radiative feedbacks. Climate forcings are changes imposed on the planet's energy balance, such as change of incoming sunlight or a human-induced change of surface properties due to deforestation. Radiative feedbacks are radiative changes induced by climate change, such as alteration of cloud properties or the extent of sea ice. Monitoring of global climate forcings and feedbacks, if sufficiently precise and long-term, can provide a very strong constraint on interpretation of observed temperature change. Such monitoring is essential to eliminate uncertainties about the relative importance of various climate change mechanisms including tropospheric sulfate aerosols from burning of coal and oil smoke from slash and burn agriculture, changes of solar irradiance changes of several greenhouse gases, and many other mechanisms. The considerable variability of observed temperature, together with evidence that a substantial portion of this variability is unforced indicates that observations of climate forcings and feedbacks must be continued for decades. Since the climate system responds to the time integral of the forcing, a further requirement is that the observations be carried out continuously. However, precise observations of forcings and feedbacks will also be able to provide valuable conclusions on shorter time scales. For example, knowledge of the climate forcing by increasing CFC's relative to the forcing by changing ozone is important to policymakers, as is information on the forcing by CO2 relative to the forcing by sulfate aerosols. It will also be possible to obtain valuable tests of climate models on short time scales, if there is precise monitoring of all forcings and feedbacks during and after events such as a large volcanic eruption

  16. A global model simulation of present and future nitrate aerosols and their direct radiative forcing of climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hauglustaine, D. A.; Balkanski, Y.; Schulz, M.

    2014-10-01

    The ammonia cycle and nitrate particle formation are introduced into the LMDz-INCA (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, version 4 - INteraction with Chemistry and Aerosols, version 3) global model. An important aspect of this new model is that both fine nitrate particle formation in the accumulation mode and coarse nitrate forming on existing dust and sea-salt particles are considered. The model simulates distributions of nitrates and related species in agreement with previous studies and observations. The calculated present-day total nitrate direct radiative forcing since the pre-industrial is -0.056 W m-2. This forcing corresponds to 18% of the sulfate forcing. Fine particles largely dominate the nitrate forcing, representing close to 90% of this value. The model has been used to investigate the future changes in nitrates and direct radiative forcing of climate based on snapshot simulations for the four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and for the 2030, 2050, and 2100 time horizons. Due to a decrease in fossil fuel emissions in the future, the concentration of most of the species involved in the nitrate-ammonium-sulfate system drop by 2100 except for ammonia, which originates from agricultural practices and for which emissions significantly increase in the future. Despite the decrease of nitrate surface levels in Europe and North America, the global burden of accumulation mode nitrates increases by up to a factor of 2.6 in 2100. This increase in ammonium nitrate in the future arises despite decreasing NOx emissions due to increased availability of ammonia to form ammonium nitrate. The total aerosol direct forcing decreases from its present-day value of -0.234 W m-2 to a range of -0.070 to -0.130 W m-2 in 2100 based on the considered scenario. The direct forcing decreases for all aerosols except for nitrates, for which the direct negative forcing increases to a range of -0.060 to -0.115 W m-2 in 2100. Including nitrates in the radiative

  17. Efficacy of climate forcings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Ruedy, R.; Nazarenko, L.; Lacis, A.; Schmidt, G. A.; Russell, G.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, M.; Bauer, S.; Bell, N.; Cairns, B.; Canuto, V.; Chandler, M.; Cheng, Y.; Del Genio, A.; Faluvegi, G.; Fleming, E.; Friend, A.; Hall, T.; Jackman, C.; Kelley, M.; Kiang, N.; Koch, D.; Lean, J.; Lerner, J.; Lo, K.; Menon, S.; Miller, R.; Minnis, P.; Novakov, T.; Oinas, V.; Perlwitz, Ja.; Perlwitz, Ju.; Rind, D.; Romanou, A.; Shindell, D.; Stone, P.; Sun, S.; Tausnev, N.; Thresher, D.; Wielicki, B.; Wong, T.; Yao, M.; Zhang, S.

    2005-09-01

    We use a global climate model to compare the effectiveness of many climate forcing agents for producing climate change. We find a substantial range in the "efficacy" of different forcings, where the efficacy is the global temperature response per unit forcing relative to the response to CO2 forcing. Anthropogenic CH4 has efficacy ˜110%, which increases to ˜145% when its indirect effects on stratospheric H2O and tropospheric O3 are included, yielding an effective climate forcing of ˜0.8 W/m2 for the period 1750-2000 and making CH4 the largest anthropogenic climate forcing other than CO2. Black carbon (BC) aerosols from biomass burning have a calculated efficacy ˜58%, while fossil fuel BC has an efficacy ˜78%. Accounting for forcing efficacies and for indirect effects via snow albedo and cloud changes, we find that fossil fuel soot, defined as BC + OC (organic carbon), has a net positive forcing while biomass burning BC + OC has a negative forcing. We show that replacement of the traditional instantaneous and adjusted forcings, Fi and Fa, with an easily computed alternative, Fs, yields a better predictor of climate change, i.e., its efficacies are closer to unity. Fs is inferred from flux and temperature changes in a fixed-ocean model run. There is remarkable congruence in the spatial distribution of climate change, normalized to the same forcing Fs, for most climate forcing agents, suggesting that the global forcing has more relevance to regional climate change than may have been anticipated. Increasing greenhouse gases intensify the Hadley circulation in our model, increasing rainfall in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Eastern United States, and East Asia, while intensifying dry conditions in the subtropics including the Southwest United States, the Mediterranean region, the Middle East, and an expanding Sahel. These features survive in model simulations that use all estimated forcings for the period 1880-2000. Responses to localized forcings, such

  18. Factors Affecting Aerosol Radiative Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jingxu; Lin, Jintai; Ni, Ruijing

    2016-04-01

    Rapid industrial and economic growth has meant a large amount of aerosols in the atmosphere with strong radiative forcing (RF) upon the climate system. Over parts of the globe, the negative forcing of aerosols has overcompensated for the positive forcing of greenhouse gases. Aerosol RF is determined by emissions and various chemical-transport-radiative processes in the atmosphere, a multi-factor problem whose individual contributors have not been well quantified. In this study, we analyze the major factors affecting RF of secondary inorganic aerosols (SIOAs, including sulfate, nitrate and ammonium), primary organic aerosol (POA), and black carbon (BC). We analyze the RF of aerosols produced by 11 major regions across the globe, including but not limited to East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, North America, and Western Europe. Factors analyzed include population size, per capita gross domestic production (GDP), emission intensity (i.e., emissions per unit GDP), chemical efficiency (i.e., mass per unit emissions) and radiative efficiency (i.e., RF per unit mass). We find that among the 11 regions, East Asia produces the largest emissions and aerosol RF, due to relatively high emission intensity and a tremendous population size. South Asia produce the second largest RF of SIOA and BC and the highest RF of POA, in part due to its highest chemical efficiency among all regions. Although Southeast Asia also has large emissions, its aerosol RF is alleviated by its lowest chemical efficiency. The chemical efficiency and radiative efficiency of BC produced by the Middle East-North Africa are the highest across the regions, whereas its RF is lowered by a small per capita GDP. Both North America and Western Europe have low emission intensity, compensating for the effects on RF of large population sizes and per capita GDP. There has been a momentum to transfer industries to Southeast Asia and South Asia, and such transition is expected to continue in the coming years. The

  19. Spatially Refined Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing Efficiencies

    EPA Science Inventory

    Global aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF) is an important metric for assessing potential climate impacts of future emissions changes. However, the radiative consequences of emissions perturbations are not readily quantified nor well understood at the level of detail necessary...

  20. Impacts of oxidation aging on secondary organic aerosol formation, particle growth rate, cloud condensation nuclei abundance, and aerosol climate forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, F.; Luo, G.

    2014-12-01

    variations. CAM5-APM simulations show similar magnitude of impacts. The implication of oxidation aging to net direct and indirect radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols based on both GEOS-Chem-APM and CAM5-APM will be discussed.

  1. Aerosol organic carbon to black carbon ratios: Analysis ofpublished data and implications for climate forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Novakov, T.; Menon, S.; Kirchstetter, T.W.; Koch, D.; Hansen, J.E.

    2005-07-11

    Measurements of organic carbon (OC) and black carbon (BC)concentrations over a variety of locations worldwide, have been analyzed to infer the spatial distributions of the ratios of OC to BC. Since these ratios determine the relative amounts of scattering and absorption, they are often used to estimate the radiative forcing due to aerosols. An artifact in the protocol for filter measurements of OC has led to widespread overestimates of the ratio of OC to BC in atmospheric aerosols. We developed a criterion to correct for this artifact and analyze corrected OC to BC ratios. The OC to BC ratios, ranging from 1.3to 2.4, appear relatively constant and are generally unaffected by seasonality, sources or technology changes, at the locations considered here. The ratios compare well with emission inventories over Europe and China but are a factor of two lower in other regions. The reduced estimate for OC/BC in aerosols strengthens the argument that reduction of soot emissions maybe a useful approach to slow global warming.

  2. Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Ramaswamy, V.; Boucher, Olivier; Haigh, J.; Hauglustaine, D.; Haywood, J.; Myhre, G.; Nakajima, Takahito; Shi, Guangyu; Solomon, S.; Betts, Robert E.; Charlson, R.; Chuang, C. C.; Daniel, J. S.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Feichter, J.; Fuglestvedt, J.; Forster, P. M.; Ghan, Steven J.; Jones, A.; Kiehl, J. T.; Koch, D.; Land, C.; Lean, J.; Lohmann, Ulrike; Minschwaner, K.; Penner, Joyce E.; Roberts, D. L.; Rodhe, H.; Roelofs, G.-J.; Rotstayn, Leon D.; Schneider, T. L.; Schumann, U.; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Schwartzkopf, M. D.; Shine, K. P.; Smith, Steven J.; Stevenson, D. S.; Stordal, F.; Tegen, I.; van Dorland, R.; Zhang, Y.; Srinivasan, J.; Joos, Fortunat

    2001-10-01

    Chapter 6 of the IPCC Third Assessment Report Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Sections include: Executive Summary 6.1 Radiative Forcing 6.2 Forcing-Response Relationship 6.3 Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases 6.4 Stratospheric Ozone 6.5 Radiative Forcing By Tropospheric Ozone 6.6 Indirect Forcings due to Chemistry 6.7 The Direct Radiative Forcing of Tropospheric Aerosols 6.8 The Indirect Radiative Forcing of Tropospheric Aerosols 6.9 Stratospheric Aerosols 6.10 Land-use Change (Surface Albedo Effect) 6.11 Solar Forcing of Climate 6.12 Global Warming Potentials hydrocarbons 6.13 Global Mean Radiative Forcings 6.14 The Geographical Distribution of the Radiative Forcings 6.15 Time Evolution of Radiative Forcings Appendix 6.1 Elements of Radiative Forcing Concept References.

  3. Vertical microphysical profiles of convective clouds as a tool for obtaining aerosol cloud-mediated climate forcings

    SciTech Connect

    Rosenfeld, Daniel

    2015-12-23

    Quantifying the aerosol/cloud-mediated radiative effect at a global scale requires simultaneous satellite retrievals of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations and cloud base updraft velocities (Wb). Hitherto, the inability to do so has been a major cause of high uncertainty regarding anthropogenic aerosol/cloud-mediated radiative forcing. This can be addressed by the emerging capability of estimating CCN and Wb of boundary layer convective clouds from an operational polar orbiting weather satellite. Our methodology uses such clouds as an effective analog for CCN chambers. The cloud base supersaturation (S) is determined by Wb and the satellite-retrieved cloud base drop concentrations (Ndb), which is the same as CCN(S). Developing and validating this methodology was possible thanks to the ASR/ARM measurements of CCN and vertical updraft profiles. Validation against ground-based CCN instruments at the ARM sites in Oklahoma, Manaus, and onboard a ship in the northeast Pacific showed a retrieval accuracy of ±25% to ±30% for individual satellite overpasses. The methodology is presently limited to boundary layer not raining convective clouds of at least 1 km depth that are not obscured by upper layer clouds, including semitransparent cirrus. The limitation for small solar backscattering angles of <25º restricts the satellite coverage to ~25% of the world area in a single day. This methodology will likely allow overcoming the challenge of quantifying the aerosol indirect effect and facilitate a substantial reduction of the uncertainty in anthropogenic climate forcing.

  4. Sensitivity of dust emissions to aerosol feedback and the impact of dust loading on climate forcing with varied resolutions using FIM-Chem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Li; Grell, Georg; Henze, Daven; Mckeen, Stuart; Sun, Shan; Li, Haiqin

    2016-04-01

    Meteorological conditions directly impact aerosol loading, especially dust emissions. Variations in dust emissions on the other hand, will also impact meteorology and climate through direct and indirect aerosol forcing. To study these impacts in more detail we use the global Flow-following finite-volume Icosahedra Model (FIM, http://fim.noaa.gov/), a new global weather prediction model currently under development in the Global Systems Division of NOAA/ESRL, as it is coupled online with the aerosol modules from the Goddard Gobal Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model (FIM-Chem). FIM-Chem includes direct and semi direct feedback, and uses the dust schemes of GOCART and the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA). FIM-Chem is able to investigate the contribution of climate feedbacks to simulated hyperspectral data by considering a range of simulations with different dust emissions and different levels of aerosol feedbacks enabled at four different spatial resolutions. The emitted dust flux and total emissions are highly depending on the wind, soil moisture and model resolution. We compare the dust emissions by including and excluding the aerosol radiative feedback in the simulations to quantify the sensitivity of dust emissions to aerosol feedback. The results show that all aerosol-induced dust emissions increase about 10% globally, which is mainly dominated by the contributions of anthropogenic black carbon (EC) aerosol. While the dust-induced percentage changes of dust emissions are about -5.5%, that indicates reduction effect globally. Also, the simulations based on different resolutions of 240x240 km, 120x120 km, 60x60 km and 30x30 km are performed to test the impacts of model resolution on total dust emissions. By comparing the dust emission sensitivity to aerosol feedback and model resolution, we can estimate the uncertainty of model resolution versus aerosol feedback. We also conduct FIM-Chem simulations to investigate the sensitivity of dust

  5. Assessment of aerosol radiative forcing in the North-Eastern region of India using radiative transfer model and regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pathak, Binita; Bhuyan, Pradip

    Regional characterization of atmospheric aerosols is essential from the viewpoint of reducing the current uncertainties in the understanding of their climate implications at regional and global scale. The north-eastern part of India owing to its unique topography and geography located at sub Himalayan range and the middle of Indian Subcontinent and South-East Asian region as well as with scattered local hilly regions persevere complex aerosol environment. Collocated measurements of parameters corresponding to aerosol optical and physical properties i.e., spectral aerosol optical depths (AODs) by a 10 channel Multi-Wavelength solar Radiometer (MWR), near surface aerosol mass concentration of composite aerosols by a Quartz Crystal Microbalance Impactor (QCM) and Black Carbon (BC) mass concentration by an Aethalometer have been used in the Optical Properties of Aerosols and Clouds (OPAC) model to estimate the optical properties of composite aerosols over Dibrugarh (27.3ºN, 94.6ºE, 111 m amsl) for the short wavelength range. The OPAC outputs are then used as inputs to the Rdiative Transfer model ‘Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (SBDART)’, developed by the University of California, Santa Barbara, to derive the shortwave aerosol radiative properties. The aerosol optical depth shows maximum value in pre-monsoon season and minimum in post-monsoon season. Columnar aerosols are bimodal in nature with dominant contribution from fine mode aerosols. Unlike columnar aerosols surface aerosol concentration including black carbon shows maximum value in winter and minimum in monsoon season. The aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) estimated for the period pre-monsoon 2008-winter 2013 shows maximum value in the pre-monsoon season at the surface as well as in the atmosphere corresponding to highest columnar aerosol loading. The surface forcing varies between -37 Wm-2 in Pre-monsoon 2009 and 2011 to -13 Wm-2 in Post-monsoon 2008 while forcing in the Atmosphere

  6. The missing climate forcing

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Lacis, A.; Ruedy, R.

    1997-01-01

    Observed climate change is consistent with radiative forcings on several time-scales for which the dominant forcings are known, ranging from the few years after a large volcanic eruption to glacial-to-interglacial changes. In the period with most detailed data, 1979 to the present, climate observations contain clear signatures of both natural and anthropogenic forcings. But in the full period since the industrial revolution began, global warming is only about half of that expected due to the principal forcing, increasing greenhouse gases. The direct radiative effect of anthropogenic aerosols contributes only little towards resolving this discrepancy. Unforced climate variability is an unlikely explanation. We argue on the basis of several lines of indirect evidence that aerosol effects on clouds have caused a large negative forcing, at least -1 Wm-2, which has substantially offset greenhouse warming. The tasks of observing this forcing and determining the microphysical mechanisms at its basis are exceptionally difficult, but they are essential for the prognosis of future climate change.

  7. Overview of the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment/Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing on the Mediterranean Climate (ChArMEx/ADRIMED) summer 2013 campaign

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mallet, M.; Dulac, F.; Formenti, P.; Nabat, P.; Sciare, J.; Roberts, G.; Pelon, J.; Ancellet, G.; Tanré, D.; Parol, F.; Denjean, C.; Brogniez, G.; di Sarra, A.; Alados-Arboledas, L.; Arndt, J.; Auriol, F.; Blarel, L.; Bourrianne, T.; Chazette, P.; Chevaillier, S.; Claeys, M.; D'Anna, B.; Derimian, Y.; Desboeufs, K.; Di Iorio, T.; Doussin, J.-F.; Durand, P.; Féron, A.; Freney, E.; Gaimoz, C.; Goloub, P.; Gómez-Amo, J. L.; Granados-Muñoz, M. J.; Grand, N.; Hamonou, E.; Jankowiak, I.; Jeannot, M.; Léon, J.-F.; Maillé, M.; Mailler, S.; Meloni, D.; Menut, L.; Momboisse, G.; Nicolas, J.; Podvin, T.; Pont, V.; Rea, G.; Renard, J.-B.; Roblou, L.; Schepanski, K.; Schwarzenboeck, A.; Sellegri, K.; Sicard, M.; Solmon, F.; Somot, S.; Torres, B.; Totems, J.; Triquet, S.; Verdier, N.; Verwaerde, C.; Waquet, F.; Wenger, J.; Zapf, P.

    2016-01-01

    MBL. In terms of shortwave (SW) direct forcing, in situ surface and aircraft observations have been merged and used as inputs in 1-D radiative transfer codes for calculating the aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF). Results show significant surface SW instantaneous forcing (up to -90 W m-2 at noon). Aircraft observations provide also original estimates of the vertical structure of SW and LW radiative heating revealing significant instantaneous values of about 5° K per day in the solar spectrum (for a solar angle of 30°) within the dust layer. Associated 3-D modeling studies from regional climate (RCM) and chemistry transport (CTM) models indicate a relatively good agreement for simulated AOD compared with observations from the AERONET/PHOTONS network and satellite data, especially for long-range dust transport. Calculations of the 3-D SW (clear-sky) surface DRF indicate an average of about -10 to -20 W m-2 (for the whole period) over the Mediterranean Sea together with maxima (-50 W m-2) over northern Africa. The top of the atmosphere (TOA) DRF is shown to be highly variable within the domain, due to moderate absorbing properties of dust and changes in the surface albedo. Indeed, 3-D simulations indicate negative forcing over the Mediterranean Sea and Europe and positive forcing over northern Africa. Finally, a multi-year simulation, performed for the 2003 to 2009 period and including an ocean-atmosphere (O-A) coupling, underlines the impact of the aerosol direct radiative forcing on the sea surface temperature, O-A fluxes and the hydrological cycle over the Mediterranean.

  8. Concluding remarks: challenges for aerosols and climate.

    PubMed

    Murphy, D M

    2013-01-01

    We study aerosols for many reasons, including their effects on human health and climate. For climate, it is important to distinguish between the overall radiative effect of aerosols and the radiative forcing, which has been the anthropogenic change (after rapid atmospheric adjustments) since pre-industrial times. The radiative forcing is in principle much harder to observe than the overall effect because one must understand which particles are natural in today's atmosphere and what aerosols were like in the atmosphere before large-scale human influence. Because we cannot go back and measure the past, the only way to calculate radiative forcing may often require modeling detailed aerosol processes. This is a motivation for many of the processes studied at the Faraday Discussion 165. Other processes may need more attention by the aerosol climate community.

  9. Longwave radiative forcing by aqueous aerosols

    SciTech Connect

    Gaffney, J.S.; Marley, N.A.

    1995-01-01

    Recently, a great deal of interest has been focused on the role of aerosols in climatic change because of their potential cooling impacts due to light scattering. Recent advances in infrared spectroscopy using cylindrical internal reflectance have allowed the longwave absorption of dissolved aerosol species and the associated liquid water to be accurately determined and evaluated. Experimental measurements using these techniques have shown that dissolved sulfate, nitrate, and numerous other aerosol species will act to cause greenhouse effects. Preliminary calculations indicate that the longwave climate forcing (i.e., heating) for sulfate aerosol will be comparable in magnitude to the cooling effect produced by light scattering. However, more detailed modeling will clearly be needed to address the impact of the longwave forcing due to aerosols as a function of atmospheric height and composition. Their work has shown that aerosol composition will be important in determining longwave forcing, while shortwave forcing will be more related to the physical size of the aerosol droplets. On the basis of these studies, it is increasingly apparent that aerosols, fogs, and clouds play a key role in determining the radiative balance of the atmosphere and in controlling regional and global climates.

  10. Overview of the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment/Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing on the Mediterranean Climate (ChArMEx/ADRIMED) summer 2013 campaign

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mallet, M.; Dulac, F.; Formenti, P.; Nabat, P.; Sciare, J.; Roberts, G.; Pelon, J.; Ancellet, G.; Tanré, D.; Parol, F.; di Sarra, A.; Alados, L.; Arndt, J.; Auriol, F.; Blarel, L.; Bourrianne, T.; Brogniez, G.; Chazette, P.; Chevaillier, S.; Claeys, M.; D'Anna, B.; Denjean, C.; Derimian, Y.; Desboeufs, K.; Di Iorio, T.; Doussin, J.-F.; Durand, P.; Féron, A.; Freney, E.; Gaimoz, C.; Goloub, P.; Gómez-Amo, J. L.; Granados-Muñoz, M. J.; Grand, N.; Hamonou, E.; Jankowiak, I.; Jeannot, M.; Léon, J.-F.; Maillé, M.; Mailler, S.; Meloni, D.; Menut, L.; Momboisse, G.; Nicolas, J.; Podvin, J.; Pont, V.; Rea, G.; Renard, J.-B.; Roblou, L.; Schepanski, K.; Schwarzenboeck, A.; Sellegri, K.; Sicard, M.; Solmon, F.; Somot, S.; Torres, B.; Totems, J.; Triquet, S.; Verdier, N.; Verwaerde, C.; Wenger, J.; Zapf, P.

    2015-07-01

    The Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment (ChArMEx; http://charmex.lsce.ipsl.fr) is a collaborative research program federating international activities to investigate Mediterranean regional chemistry-climate interactions. A special observing period (SOP-1a) including intensive airborne measurements was performed in the framework of the Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing on the Mediterranean Climate (ADRIMED) project during the Mediterranean dry season over the western and central Mediterranean basins, with a focus on aerosol-radiation measurements and their modeling. The SOP-1a took place from 11 June to 5 July 2013. Airborne measurements were made by both the ATR-42 and F-20 French research aircraft operated from Sardinia (Italy) and instrumented for in situ and remote-sensing measurements, respectively, and by sounding and drifting balloons, launched in Minorca. The experimental set-up also involved several ground-based measurement sites on islands including two ground-based reference stations in Corsica and Lampedusa and secondary monitoring sites in Minorca and Sicily. Additional measurements including lidar profiling were also performed on alert during aircraft operations at EARLINET/ACTRIS stations at Granada and Barcelona in Spain, and in southern Italy. Remote sensing aerosol products from satellites (MSG/SEVIRI, MODIS) and from the AERONET/PHOTONS network were also used. Dedicated meso-scale and regional modelling experiments were performed in relation to this observational effort. We provide here an overview of the different surface and aircraft observations deployed during the ChArMEx/ADRIMED period and of associated modeling studies together with an analysis of the synoptic conditions that determined the aerosol emission and transport. Meteorological conditions observed during this campaign (moderate temperatures and southern flows) were not favorable to produce high level of atmospheric pollutants nor

  11. Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chin, Mian; Kahn, Ralph A.; Remer, Lorraine A.; Yu, Hongbin; Rind, David; Feingold, Graham; Quinn, Patricia K.; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Streets, David G.; DeCola, Phillip; Halthore, Rangasayi

    2009-01-01

    This report critically reviews current knowledge about global distributions and properties of atmospheric aerosols, as they relate to aerosol impacts on climate. It assesses possible next steps aimed at substantially reducing uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing estimates. Current measurement techniques and modeling approaches are summarized, providing context. As a part of the Synthesis and Assessment Product in the Climate Change Science Program, this assessment builds upon recent related assessments, including the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4, 2007) and other Climate Change Science Program reports. The objectives of this report are (1) to promote a consensus about the knowledge base for climate change decision support, and (2) to provide a synthesis and integration of the current knowledge of the climate-relevant impacts of anthropogenic aerosols for policy makers, policy analysts, and general public, both within and outside the U.S government and worldwide.

  12. Aerosol and monsoon climate interactions over Asia: AEROSOL AND MONSOON CLIMATE INTERACTIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Li, Zhanqing; Lau, W. K. -M.; Ramanathan, V.; Wu, G.; Ding, Y.; Manoj, M. G.; Liu, J.; Qian, Y.; Li, J.; Zhou, T.; Fan, J.; Rosenfeld, D.; Ming, Y.; Wang, Y.; Huang, J.; Wang, B.; Xu, X.; Lee, S. -S.; Cribb, M.; Zhang, F.; Yang, X.; Zhao, C.; Takemura, T.; Wang, K.; Xia, X.; Yin, Y.; Zhang, H.; Guo, J.; Zhai, P. M.; Sugimoto, N.; Babu, S. S.; Brasseur, G. P.

    2016-11-15

    Asian monsoons and aerosols have been studied extensively which are intertwined in influencing the climate of Asia. This paper provides a comprehensive review of ample studies on Asian aerosol, monsoon and their interactions. The region is the primary source of aerosol emissions of varies species, influenced by distinct weather and climatic regimes. On continental scale, aerosols reduce surface insolation and weaken the land-ocean thermal contrast, thus inhibiting the development of monsoons. Locally, aerosol radiative effects alter the thermodynamic stability and convective potential of the lower atmosphere leading to reduced temperatures, increased atmospheric stability, and weakened wind and atmospheric circulation. The atmospheric thermodynamic state may also be altered by the aerosol serving as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei. Many mechanisms have been put forth regarding how aerosols modulate the amplitude, frequency, intensity, and phase of numerous monsoon climate variables. A wide range of theoretical, observational, and modeling findings on the Asian monsoon, aerosols, and their interactions are synthesized. A new paradigm is proposed on investigating aerosol-monsoon interactions, in which natural aerosols such as desert dust, black carbon from biomass burning, and biogenic aerosols from vegetation are considered integral components of an intrinsic aerosol-monsoon climate system, subject to external forcings of global warming, anthropogenic aerosols, and land use and change. Future research on aerosol-monsoon interactions calls for an integrated approach and international collaborations based on long-term sustained observations, process measurements, and improved models, as well as using observations to constrain model simulations and projections.

  13. Seasonality of meningitis in Africa and climate forcing: aerosols stand out.

    PubMed

    Agier, L; Deroubaix, A; Martiny, N; Yaka, P; Djibo, A; Broutin, H

    2013-02-01

    Bacterial meningitis is an ongoing threat for the population of the African Meningitis Belt, a region characterized by the highest incidence rates worldwide. The determinants of the disease dynamics are still poorly understood; nevertheless, it is often advocated that climate and mineral dust have a large impact. Over the last decade, several studies have investigated this relationship at a large scale. In this analysis, we scaled down to the district-level weekly scale (which is used for in-year response to emerging epidemics), and used wavelet and phase analysis methods to define and compare the time-varying periodicities of meningitis, climate and dust in Niger. We mostly focused on detecting time-lags between the signals that were consistent across districts. Results highlighted the special case of dust in comparison to wind, humidity or temperature: a strong similarity between districts is noticed in the evolution of the time-lags between the seasonal component of dust and meningitis. This result, together with the assumption of dust damaging the pharyngeal mucosa and easing bacterial invasion, reinforces our confidence in dust forcing on meningitis seasonality. Dust data should now be integrated in epidemiological and forecasting models to make them more realistic and usable in a public health perspective.

  14. Seasonality of meningitis in Africa and climate forcing: aerosols stand out

    PubMed Central

    Agier, L.; Deroubaix, A.; Martiny, N.; Yaka, P.; Djibo, A.; Broutin, H.

    2013-01-01

    Bacterial meningitis is an ongoing threat for the population of the African Meningitis Belt, a region characterized by the highest incidence rates worldwide. The determinants of the disease dynamics are still poorly understood; nevertheless, it is often advocated that climate and mineral dust have a large impact. Over the last decade, several studies have investigated this relationship at a large scale. In this analysis, we scaled down to the district-level weekly scale (which is used for in-year response to emerging epidemics), and used wavelet and phase analysis methods to define and compare the time-varying periodicities of meningitis, climate and dust in Niger. We mostly focused on detecting time-lags between the signals that were consistent across districts. Results highlighted the special case of dust in comparison to wind, humidity or temperature: a strong similarity between districts is noticed in the evolution of the time-lags between the seasonal component of dust and meningitis. This result, together with the assumption of dust damaging the pharyngeal mucosa and easing bacterial invasion, reinforces our confidence in dust forcing on meningitis seasonality. Dust data should now be integrated in epidemiological and forecasting models to make them more realistic and usable in a public health perspective. PMID:23221989

  15. Thermal Infrared Radiative Forcing By Atmospheric Aerosol

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adhikari, Narayan

    The work mainly focuses on the study of thermal infrared (IR) properties of atmospheric greenhouse gases and aerosols, and the estimation of the aerosol-induced direct longwave (LW) radiative forcing in the spectral region 5-20 mum at the Earth's surface (BOA; bottom of the atmosphere) and the top of the atmosphere (TOA) in cloud-free atmospheric conditions. These objectives were accomplished by conducting case studies on clear sky, smoky, and dusty conditions that took place in the Great Basin of the USA in 2013. Both the solar and thermal IR measurements and a state-of-the-science radiative transfer model, the LBLDIS, a combination of the Line-By-Line Radiative Transfer Model and the Discrete Ordinate Radiative Transfer (DISORT) solver were employed for the study. The LW aerosol forcing is often not included in climate models because the aerosol effect on the LW is often assumed to be negligible. We lack knowledge of aerosol characteristics in the LW region, and aerosol properties exhibit high variability. We have found that the LW TOA radiative forcing due to fine mode aerosols, mainly associated with small biomass burning smoke particles, is + 0.4 W/m2 which seems to be small, but it is similar to the LW radiative forcing due to increase in CO2 concentration in the Earth's atmosphere since the preindustrial era of 1750 (+ 1.6 W/m 2). The LW radiative forcing due to coarse mode aerosols, associated with large airborne mineral dust particles, was found to be as much as + 5.02 W/m2 at the surface and + 1.71 W/m2 at the TOA. All of these significant positive values of the aerosol radiative forcing both at the BOA and TOA indicate that the aerosols have a heating effect in the LW range, which contributes to counterbalancing the cooling effect associated with the aerosol radiative forcing in the shortwave (SW) spectral region. In the meantime, we have found that LW radiative forcing by aerosols is highly sensitive to particle size and complex refractive indices of

  16. Aerosol and monsoon climate interactions over Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Zhanqing; Lau, W. K.-M.; Ramanathan, V.; Wu, G.; Ding, Y.; Manoj, M. G.; Liu, J.; Qian, Y.; Li, J.; Zhou, T.; Fan, J.; Rosenfeld, D.; Ming, Y.; Wang, Y.; Huang, J.; Wang, B.; Xu, X.; Lee, S.-S.; Cribb, M.; Zhang, F.; Yang, X.; Zhao, C.; Takemura, T.; Wang, K.; Xia, X.; Yin, Y.; Zhang, H.; Guo, J.; Zhai, P. M.; Sugimoto, N.; Babu, S. S.; Brasseur, G. P.

    2016-12-01

    biomass burning, and biogenic aerosols from vegetation are considered integral components of an intrinsic aerosol-monsoon climate system, subject to external forcing of global warming, anthropogenic aerosols, and land use and change. Future research on aerosol-monsoon interactions calls for an integrated approach and international collaborations based on long-term sustained observations, process measurements, and improved models, as well as using observations to constrain model simulations and projections.

  17. Climate implications of carbonaceous aerosols: An aerosol microphysical study using the GISS/MATRIX climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauer, S. E.

    2009-12-01

    Recently, attention has been drawn towards black carbon aerosols as a likely short-term climate warming mitigation candidate. However the global and regional impacts of the direct and especially the indirect aerosol forcing effects are highly uncertain, due to the complex nature of aerosol evolution and its climate interactions. Black carbon is directly released as particle into the atmosphere, but then interacts with other gases and particles through condensation and coagulation processes leading to further aerosol growth, aging and internal mixing. Those aerosol characteristics determine their role in direct and indirect aerosol forcing, as their chemical composition and size distribution determine their optical properties and cloud activation potential. A new detailed aerosol microphysical scheme, MATRIX, embedded within the global GISS modelE climate model includes the above processes that determine the lifecycle and climate impact of aerosols. This study presents a quantitative assessment and an uncertainty estimate of the impact of microphysical processes involving black carbon and its optical properties on aerosol cloud activation and radiative forcing. We calculate an anthropogenic net radiative forcing of -0.46 W/m2, relative to emission changes between 1750 and 2000. This study finds the direct and indirect aerosol effect to be very sensitivity towards the size distribution of the emitted black and organic particles. The total net radiative forcing can vary between -0.26 to -0.47 W/m2. The models radiation transfer scheme reacts even more sensitive to black carbon core shell structure assumptions. Assuming that sulfates, nitrates and secondary organics can lead to a coating shell around a black carbon core can turn the overall net radiative forcing from a negative to a positive number. In the light of these sensitivities, black carbon mitigation experiments can show no to up to very significant impact to slower global warming.

  18. Cloud Dynamical Controls on Climate Forcing by Aerosol-Cloud Interactions: New Insights from Observations, High-Resolution Models, and Parameterizations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donner, Leo

    2016-04-01

    At frequently observed, low updraft speeds, cloud droplet and ice crystal number concentrations are controlled mostly by cloud-scale vertical velocities and not aerosol number concentrations. Reducing uncertainty in estimates of climate forcing by aerosol-cloud interactions will require taking account of these thermodynamically limited cloud regimes in global climate models. The scales of the relevant cloud dynamics are often well-below resolved scales in climate and numerical weather prediction models, ranging to tens of meters at large-eddy scale for stratocumulus clouds. Observations of vertical velocities from cloud radars in field programs and at fixed observational sites are providing a basis for evaluating new classes of parameterizations for convective and non-convective clouds that include probability distribution functions (PDFs) for vertical velocity, which can be used to drive physically based representations of droplet and crystal activation. High-resolution cloud models with detailed treatments of aerosol and microphysical processes can also be evaluated using these observations. Vertical velocities in both high-resolution models and parameterizations currently show discrepancies from observations while capturing qualitative features. Improved treatments of microphysical and turbulence processes in high-resolution cloud models hold promise for improving agreement with observations, while a wide range of advances in parameterization are possible paths to improvement for simulating sub-grid vertical velocities and aerosol-cloud interactions.

  19. Laboratory Measurement of the Optical Properties of Hematite and Desert Dust Aerosols to Assess Their Climate Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moosmuller, H.; Aiken, A. C.; Dubey, M. K.; Frey, G.; Garro, B.; Engelbrecht, J. P.

    2012-12-01

    Globally, aerosol mass emissions and optical depths are dominated by entrained mineral dust. While most minerals occurring in dust aerosols do not absorb solar radiation, some minerals cause significant absorption, thereby lowering the single scatter albedo (SSA) significantly below one, potentially contributing to a warmer and drier atmosphere. Therefore, the optical properties of globally relevant dust aerosols need to be characterized to reduce uncertainties in their radiative forcings. A well-known absorbing component found in dust aerosols is hematite, Fe2O3, which absorbs strongly in the blue-green spectral region, giving some soils, rocks, and dust aerosols their characteristic red color. We discuss measurements of the optical properties of ~30 dust aerosols, including a pure hematite standard, hematite-containing mineral dust standards ranging from 9-34% hematite by mass, and various dust samples collected from around the world. Samples are suspended from aqueous solution and/or from dry atomization with a cyclone re-suspension chamber yielding the fine fraction relevant for long-range transport. Size distributions were characterized with an optical aerosol spectrometer; absorption and scattering coefficients were measured with a three-wavelength photoacoustic soot spectrometer (PASS-3) at 405, 532, and 781 nm and with an ultraviolet photoacoustic soot spectrometer (PASS-UV) at 375 nm yielding wavelength-dependent mass absorption coefficients (MAC's), SSA's, and wavelength dependent Angstrom exponents. Hematite MAC's are an order of magnitude smaller than those of black carbon (BC) at 405 nm and 532 nm and are largely non-absorbing at 781 nm with SSA's of 0.49 0.68 and 0.98, respectively.

  20. Stratospheric aerosols and climatic change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baldwin, B.; Pollack, J. B.; Summers, A.; Toon, O. B.; Sagan, C.; Van Camp, W.

    1976-01-01

    Generated primarily by volcanic explosions, a layer of submicron silicate particles and particles made of concentrated sulfuric acids solution is present in the stratosphere. Flights through the stratosphere may be a future source of stratospheric aerosols, since the effluent from supersonic transports contains sulfurous gases (which will be converted to H2SO4) while the exhaust from Space Shuttles contains tiny aluminum oxide particles. Global heat balance calculations have shown that the stratospheric aerosols have made important contributions to some climatic changes. In the present paper, accurate radiative transfer calculations of the globally-averaged surface temperature (T) are carried out to estimate the sensitivity of the climate to changes in the number of stratospheric aerosols. The results obtained for a specified model atmosphere, including a vertical profile of the aerosols, indicate that the climate is unlikely to be affected by supersonic transports and Space Shuttles, during the next decades.

  1. Climate implications of carbonaceous aerosols: An aerosol microphysical study using the GISS/MATRIX climate model

    SciTech Connect

    Bauer, Susanne E.; Menon, Surabi; Koch, Dorothy; Bond, Tami; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2010-04-09

    Recently, attention has been drawn towards black carbon aerosols as a likely short-term climate warming mitigation candidate. However the global and regional impacts of the direct, cloud-indirect and semi-direct forcing effects are highly uncertain, due to the complex nature of aerosol evolution and its climate interactions. Black carbon is directly released as particle into the atmosphere, but then interacts with other gases and particles through condensation and coagulation processes leading to further aerosol growth, aging and internal mixing. A detailed aerosol microphysical scheme, MATRIX, embedded within the global GISS modelE includes the above processes that determine the lifecycle and climate impact of aerosols. This study presents a quantitative assessment of the impact of microphysical processes involving black carbon, such as emission size distributions and optical properties on aerosol cloud activation and radiative forcing. Our best estimate for net direct and indirect aerosol radiative forcing change is -0.56 W/m{sup 2} between 1750 and 2000. However, the direct and indirect aerosol effects are very sensitive to the black and organic carbon size distribution and consequential mixing state. The net radiative forcing change can vary between -0.32 to -0.75 W/m{sup 2} depending on these carbonaceous particle properties. Assuming that sulfates, nitrates and secondary organics form a coating shell around a black carbon core, rather than forming a uniformly mixed particles, changes the overall net radiative forcing from a negative to a positive number. Black carbon mitigation scenarios showed generally a benefit when mainly black carbon sources such as diesel emissions are reduced, reducing organic and black carbon sources such as bio-fuels, does not lead to reduced warming.

  2. Radiative forcing by stratospheric aerosol in a CCM with interactive aerosol module

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brühl, Christoph; Lelieveld, Jos; Tost, Holger; Steil, Benedikt; Höpfner, Michael

    2013-04-01

    Multiyear studies with the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC with the aerosol module GMXe demonstrate that stratospheric aerosol formation is controlled by COS oxidation and SO2 injected by low-latitude volcanic eruptions. The model consistently uses the same parameters in the troposphere and stratosphere for 7 aerosol modes applied. Calculated radiative heating by aerosol feeds back to stratospheric dynamics. Radiative forcing by stratospheric aerosol can be diagnosed separately. The simulations include the medium size tropical eruptions in 2003, 2005 and 2006 but also the major eruption of Pinatubo in 1991. We show that calculated radiative forcing by stratospheric aerosol agrees well with the corresponding satellite derived quantity and that the medium size tropical eruptions should not be neglected in climate simulations. Changes in temperature, dynamics and tracer transport due to interactive aerosol will be also presented. We show also that calculated aerosol and SO2 concentrations are consistent with the observations by SAGE and by MIPAS on ENVISAT.

  3. Climate forcings in the Industrial era

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Lacis, Andrew; Ruedy, Reto; Tegen, Ina; Matthews, Elaine

    1998-01-01

    The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular “business as usual” or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue. PMID:9788985

  4. Climate Forcing in the Industrial Era

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.

    1998-01-01

    The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

  5. Climate Forcings in the Industrial Era

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Lacis, Andrew; Ruedy, Reto; Tegen, Ina; Matthews, Elaine

    1998-01-01

    The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is-that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

  6. Perspective: Climate Forcings in the Industrial Era

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Lacis, Andrew; Ruedy, Reto; Tegen, Ina; Matthews, Elaine

    1998-01-01

    The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

  7. Climate forcings in the industrial era.

    PubMed

    Hansen, J E; Sato, M; Lacis, A; Ruedy, R; Tegen, I; Matthews, E

    1998-10-27

    The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

  8. Effect of Aerosol and Ocean Representation on Simulated Climate Responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dallafior, Tanja; Folini, Doris; Knutti, Reto; Wild, Martin

    2016-04-01

    It is still debated to what extent anthropogenic aerosols shaped 20th century surface temperatures, especially sea surface temperatures (SSTs), through alteration of surface solar radiation (SSR). SSTs, in turn, are crucial in the context of atmospheric circulation and ocean heat uptake. Uncertainty considering anthropogenic aerosol forcing thus translates into uncertainty regarding ocean heat uptake and, ultimately, climate responses towards anthropogenic influences. We use the global climate model ECHAM to analyse the 20th century climate response towards either anthropogenic aerosols or well-mixed greenhouse gases or both with different representations of ocean and aerosols: atmosphere-only with prescribed SSTs and interactive aerosols; mixed-layer ocean and interactive or prescribed aerosols; fully coupled with prescribed aerosols. For interactive aerosols we use the Hamburg Aerosol Module (HAM). Our results suggest that up to 15% of global ocean surfaces undergo an SSR reduction of at least -4W/m² in the year 2000, due to anthropogenic aerosols. The area affected depends on how aerosols are represented and whether clear sky or all sky SSR is considered. In MLO equilibria with interactive aerosols, anthropogenic aerosols clearly shape surface temperature response patterns. This is to a lesser degree the case for the transient fully coupled case. Additivity of global mean temperature responses towards single forcings - an assumption often made in the literature - is not fulfilled for the MLO experiments, but for the fully coupled experiments. While some of these differences can be attributed to the differing ocean representation, it is implied that differing aerosol representation may play an even more relevant role. Thus, our results corroborate not only the relevance of anthropogenic aerosols for surface temperature responses, but also highlight the relevance of choice of aerosol representation.

  9. Climatic Effects of Marine Organic Aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, J.; Meskhidze, N.; Zhang, Y.; Gantt, B.; Ghan, S. J.; Nenes, A.; Liu, X.; Easter, R. C.; Zaveri, R. A.

    2009-12-01

    associated with cloud properties increase short wave cloud forcing by -0.4W/m2 to -0.7W/m2. By using different emission scenarios and droplet activation parameterizations as well as considering surfactant effects of marine organic aerosols, this study quantifies a possible range for climatic effects of ocean ecosystem.

  10. New Directions: Emerging Satellite Observations of Above-cloud Aerosols and Direct Radiative Forcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yu, Hongbin; Zhang, Zhibo

    2013-01-01

    Spaceborne lidar and passive sensors with multi-wavelength and polarization capabilities onboard the A-Train provide unprecedented opportunities of observing above-cloud aerosols and direct radiative forcing. Significant progress has been made in recent years in exploring these new aerosol remote sensing capabilities and generating unique datasets. The emerging observations will advance the understanding of aerosol climate forcing.

  11. Simulation of the Indirect Radiative Forcing of Climate Due to Aerosols by the Two-Way Coupled WRF-CMAQ over the Eastern United States

    EPA Science Inventory

    In this study, the shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF) and longwave cloud forcing (LWCF) are estimated with the newly developed two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ over the eastern United States. Preliminary indirect aerosol forcing has been successfully implemented in WRF-CMAQ. The comparisons...

  12. Improved attribution of climate forcing to emissions.

    PubMed

    Shindell, Drew T; Faluvegi, Greg; Koch, Dorothy M; Schmidt, Gavin A; Unger, Nadine; Bauer, Susanne E

    2009-10-30

    Evaluating multicomponent climate change mitigation strategies requires knowledge of the diverse direct and indirect effects of emissions. Methane, ozone, and aerosols are linked through atmospheric chemistry so that emissions of a single pollutant can affect several species. We calculated atmospheric composition changes, historical radiative forcing, and forcing per unit of emission due to aerosol and tropospheric ozone precursor emissions in a coupled composition-climate model. We found that gas-aerosol interactions substantially alter the relative importance of the various emissions. In particular, methane emissions have a larger impact than that used in current carbon-trading schemes or in the Kyoto Protocol. Thus, assessments of multigas mitigation policies, as well as any separate efforts to mitigate warming from short-lived pollutants, should include gas-aerosol interactions.

  13. Spatially Refined Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing Efficiencies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Henze, Daven K.; Shindell, Drew Todd; Akhtar, Farhan; Spurr, Robert J. D.; Pinder, Robert W.; Loughlin, Dan; Kopacz, Monika; Singh, Kumaresh; Shim, Changsub

    2012-01-01

    Global aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF) is an important metric for assessing potential climate impacts of future emissions changes. However, the radiative consequences of emissions perturbations are not readily quantified nor well understood at the level of detail necessary to assess realistic policy options. To address this challenge, here we show how adjoint model sensitivities can be used to provide highly spatially resolved estimates of the DRF from emissions of black carbon (BC), primary organic carbon (OC), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and ammonia (NH3), using the example of emissions from each sector and country following multiple Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs). The radiative forcing efficiencies of many individual emissions are found to differ considerably from regional or sectoral averages for NH3, SO2 from the power sector, and BC from domestic, industrial, transportation and biomass burning sources. Consequently, the amount of emissions controls required to attain a specific DRF varies at intracontinental scales by up to a factor of 4. These results thus demonstrate both a need and means for incorporating spatially refined aerosol DRF into analysis of future emissions scenario and design of air quality and climate change mitigation policies.

  14. Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing: Calculations and Measurements from the Tropospheric

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Russell, P. B.; Hignett, P.; Stowe, L. L.; Livingston, J. M.; Kinne, S.; Wong, J.; Chan, K. Roland (Technical Monitor)

    1997-01-01

    Radiative forcing is defined as the change in the net (downwelling minus upwelling) radiative flux at a given level in the atmosphere. This net flux is the radiative power density available to drive climatic processes in the earth-atmosphere system below that level. Recent research shows that radiative forcing by aerosol particles is a major source of uncertainty in climate predictions. To reduce those uncertainties, TARFOX was designed to determine direct (cloud-free) radiative forcing by the aerosols in one of the world's major industrial pollution plumes--that flowing from the east coast of the US over the Atlantic Ocean. TARFOX measured a variety of aerosol radiative effects (including direct forcing) while simultaneously measuring the chemical, physical, and optical properties of the aerosol particles causing those effects. The resulting data sets permit a wide variety of tests of the consistency, or closure, among the measurements and the models that link them. Because climate predictions use the same or similar model components, closure tests help to assess and reduce prediction uncertainties. In this work we use the TARFOX-determined aerosol, gas, and surface properties to compute radiative forcing for a variety of aerosol episodes, with inadvisable optical depths ranging from 0.07 to 0.6. We calculate forcing by several techniques with varying degrees of sophistication, in part to test the range of applicability of simplified techniques--which are often the only ones feasible in climate predictions by general circulation models (GCMs). We then compare computed forcing to that determined from: (1) Upwelling and downwelling fluxes (0.3-0.7 mm and 0.7-3.0 mm) measured by radiometers on the UK MRF C-130. and (2) Daily average cloud-free absorbed solar and emitted thermal radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere derived from the AVHRR radiometer on the NOAA- 14 satellite. The calculations and measurements all yield aerosol direct radiative forcing in the

  15. Two Hundred Fifty Years of Aerosols and Climate: The End of the Age of Aerosols

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven J.; Bond, Tami C.

    2014-01-20

    Carbonaceous and sulfur aerosols have a substantial global and regional influence on climate in addition to their impact on health and ecosystems. The magnitude of this influence has changed substantially over the past and is expected to continue to change into the future. An integrated picture of the changing climatic influence of black carbon, organic carbon and sulfate over the period 1850 through 2100, focusing on uncertainty, is presented using updated historical inventories and a coordinated set of emission projections. While aerosols have had a substantial impact on climate over the past century, by the end of the 21st century aerosols will likely be only a minor contributor to radiative forcing due to increases in greenhouse gas forcing and a global decrease in pollutant emissions. This outcome is even more certain under a successful implementation of a policy to limit greenhouse gas emissions as low-carbon energy technologies that do not emit appreciable aerosol or SO2 are deployed.

  16. High Resolution Aerosol Modeling: Decadal Changes in Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Bergmann, D J; Chuang, C C; Govindasamy, B; Cameron-Smith, P J; Rotman, D A

    2005-02-01

    The Atmospheric Science Division of LLNL has performed high-resolution calculations of direct sulfate forcing using a DOE-provided computer resource at NERSC. We integrated our global chemistry-aerosol model (IMPACT) with the LLNL high-resolution global climate model (horizontal resolution as high as 100 km) to examine the temporal evolution of sulfate forcing since 1950. We note that all previous assessments of sulfate forcing reported in IPCC (2001) were based on global models with coarse spatial resolutions ({approx} 300 km or even coarser). However, the short lifetime of aerosols ({approx} days) results in large spatial and temporal variations of radiative forcing by sulfate. As a result, global climate models with coarse resolutions do not accurately simulate sulfate forcing on regional scales. It requires much finer spatial resolutions in order to address the effects of regional anthropogenic SO{sub 2} emissions on the global atmosphere as well as the effects of long-range transport of sulfate aerosols on the regional climate forcing. By taking advantage of the tera-scale computer resources at NERSC, we simulated the historic direct sulfate forcing at much finer spatial resolutions than ever attempted before. Furthermore, we performed high-resolution chemistry simulations and saved monthly averaged oxidant fields, which will be used in subsequent simulations of sulfate aerosol formation and their radiative impact.

  17. Uncertainty requirements in radiative forcing of climate change.

    PubMed

    Schwartz, Stephen E

    2004-11-01

    The continuing increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) makes it essential that climate sensitivity, the equilibrium change in global mean surface temperature that would result from a given radiative forcing, be quantified with known uncertainty. Present estimates are quite uncertain, 3 +/- 1.5 K for doubling of CO2. Model studies examining climate response to forcing by greenhouse gases and aerosols exhibit large differences in sensitivities and imposed aerosol forcings that raise questions regarding claims of their having reproduced observed large-scale changes in surface temperature over the 20th century. Present uncertainty in forcing, caused largely by uncertainty in forcing by aerosols, precludes meaningful model evaluation by comparison with observed global temperature change or empirical determination of climate sensitivity. Uncertainty in aerosol forcing must be reduced at least three-fold for uncertainty in climate sensitivity to be meaningfully reduced and bounded.

  18. Using prior information to separate the temperature response to greenhouse gas forcing from that of aerosols - Estimating the transient climate response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schurer, Andrew; Hegerl, Gabriele

    2016-04-01

    The evaluation of the transient climate response (TCR) is of critical importance to policy makers as it can be used to calculate a simple estimate of the expected warming given predicted greenhouse gas emissions. Previous studies using optimal detection techniques have been able to estimate a TCR value from the historic record using simulations from some of the models which took part in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) but have found that others give unconstrained results. At least partly this is due to degeneracy between the greenhouse gas and aerosol signals which makes separation of the temperature response to these forcings problematic. Here we re-visit this important topic by using an adapted optimal detection analysis within a Bayesian framework. We account for observational uncertainty by the use of an ensemble of instrumental observations, and model uncertainty by combining the results from several different models. This framework allows the use of prior information which is found to help separate the response to the different forcings leading to a more constrained estimate of TCR.

  19. Linking Aerosol Source Activities to Present and Future Climate Effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koch, D.; Bond, T. C.; Streets, D.; Menon, S.; Unger, N.

    2007-05-01

    Aerosol source sectors (transport, power, industry, residential, biomass burning) generate distinct mixtures of aerosol species. These mixtures in turn have different effects on climate. As sectoral emissions change in coming decades, whether by regulation or not, it is helpful to link pollution from source types to climate consequences. We do so, using our global (GISS GCM) aerosol model for present and future IPCC SRES scenarios. According to our model, residential and transport sectors have net positive 1995 aerosol forcings (0.04 and 0.03 W m-2) due to their large black carbon contents. However, the sulfate-dominated power and industry sectors have net negative 1995 forcings (-0.10 and -0.09 W m-2). Due to the near-balance of absorbing and scattering components, biomass burning forcing is small. For the 2050 SRES A1B scenario, the net (negative) aerosol forcing is double 1995 due primarily to increased sulfur emissions in the industry and power sectors. For 2050 B1 the net (negative) forcing decreases relative to 1995, as sulfur emissions are reduced. Both future scenarios project decreasing residential emissions. Yet transport emissions are expected to remain significant and thus become the dominant source of warming aerosols in the future. Aerosol pollution is projected to shift southward relative to the present, as the current industrialized regions generally reduce emissions and tropical and southern hemispheric regions continue to develop. Similar to these SRES scenarios, IIASA scenarios project a decline in residential emissions; however IIASA is more optimistic about transport sector emissions reductions. We will conduct present-day climate experiments, including aerosol direct and indirect effects, to study impacts of power and transport sectors on climate features such as air temperature and hydrologic cycle.

  20. Revisiting Aerosol Effects in Global Climate Models Using an Aerosol Lidar Simulator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, P. L.; Chepfer, H.; Winker, D. M.; Ghan, S.; Rasch, P. J.

    2015-12-01

    Aerosol effects are considered a major source of uncertainty in global climate models and the direct and indirect radiative forcings have strong model dependency. These forcings are routinely evaluated (and calibrated) against observations, among them satellite retrievals are greatly used for their near-global coverage. However, the forcings calculated from model output are not directly comparable with those computed from satellite retrievals since sampling and algorithmic differences (such as cloud screening, noise reduction, and retrieval) between models and observations are not accounted for. It is our hypothesis that the conventional model validation procedures for comparing satellite observations and model simulations can mislead model development and introduce biases. Hence, we have developed an aerosol lidar simulator for global climate models that simulates the CALIOP lidar signal at 532nm. The simulator uses the same algorithms as those used to produce the "GCM-oriented CALIPSO Aerosol Product" to (1) objectively sample lidar signal profiles; and (2) derive aerosol fields (e.g., extinction profile, aerosol type, etc) from lidar signals. This allows us to sample and derive aerosol fields in the model and real atmosphere in identical ways. Using the Department of Energy's ACME model simulations, we found that the simulator-retrieved aerosol distribution and aerosol-cloud interactions are significantly different from those computed from conventional approaches, and that the model is much closer to satellite estimates than previously believed.

  1. Impact of the modal aerosol scheme GLOMAP-mode on aerosol forcing in the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bellouin, N.; Mann, G. W.; Woodhouse, M. T.; Johnson, C.; Carslaw, K. S.; Dalvi, M.

    2013-03-01

    The Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM) includes two aerosol schemes: the Coupled Large-scale Aerosol Simulator for Studies in Climate (CLASSIC), and the new Global Model of Aerosol Processes (GLOMAP-mode). GLOMAP-mode is a modal aerosol microphysics scheme that simulates not only aerosol mass but also aerosol number, represents internally-mixed particles, and includes aerosol microphysical processes such as nucleation. In this study, both schemes provide hindcast simulations of natural and anthropogenic aerosol species for the period 2000-2006. HadGEM simulations of the aerosol optical depth using GLOMAP-mode compare better than CLASSIC against a data-assimilated aerosol re-analysis and aerosol ground-based observations. Because of differences in wet deposition rates, GLOMAP-mode sulphate aerosol residence time is two days longer than CLASSIC sulphate aerosols, whereas black carbon residence time is much shorter. As a result, CLASSIC underestimates aerosol optical depths in continental regions of the Northern Hemisphere and likely overestimates absorption in remote regions. Aerosol direct and first indirect radiative forcings are computed from simulations of aerosols with emissions for the year 1850 and 2000. In 1850, GLOMAP-mode predicts lower aerosol optical depths and higher cloud droplet number concentrations than CLASSIC. Consequently, simulated clouds are much less susceptible to natural and anthropogenic aerosol changes when the microphysical scheme is used. In particular, the response of cloud condensation nuclei to an increase in dimethyl sulphide emissions becomes a factor of four smaller. The combined effect of different 1850 baselines, residence times, and abilities to affect cloud droplet number, leads to substantial differences in the aerosol forcings simulated by the two schemes. GLOMAP-mode finds a present-day direct aerosol forcing of -0.49 W m-2 on a global average, 72% stronger than the corresponding forcing from CLASSIC. This

  2. Radiative forcing of climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ramanswamy, V.; Shine, Keith; Leovy, Conway; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Rodhe, Henning; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Ding, M.; Lelieveld, Joseph; Edmonds, Jae A.; Mccormick, M. Patrick

    1991-01-01

    An update of the scientific discussions presented in Chapter 2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report is presented. The update discusses the atmospheric radiative and chemical species of significance for climate change. There are two major objectives of the present update. The first is an extension of the discussion on the Global Warming Potentials (GWP's), including a reevaluation in view of the updates in the lifetimes of the radiatively active species. The second important objective is to underscore major developments in the radiative forcing of climate due to the observed stratospheric ozone losses occurring between 1979 and 1990.

  3. Aerosols in central California: Unexpectedly large contribution of coarse mode to aerosol radiative forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kassianov, Evgueni; Pekour, Mikhail; Barnard, James

    2012-10-01

    The majority of previous studies dealing with effect of coarse mode aerosols (supermicron) on the radiation budget have focused primarily on regions where total aerosol loadings are substantial. We reexamine this effect for a relatively clean area using a unique 1-month dataset collected during the recent Carbonaceous Aerosol and Radiative Effects Study (CARES, June 2010) in the central California region near Sacramento. Here we define “clean” as aerosol optical depths less than 0.1 at 0.5 μm. We demonstrate that coarse mode particles contributed substantially (more than 50%) and frequently (up to 85% of time) to the total aerosol volume during this study. In contrast to conventional expectations that the radiative impact of coarse mode aerosols should be small for clean regions, we find that neglecting large particles may lead to significant overestimation, up to 45%, of direct aerosol radiative forcing despite very small aerosol optical depths. Our findings highlight the potential for substantial impacts of coarse mode aerosols on radiative properties over clean areas and the need for more explicit inclusion of coarse mode aerosols in climate-related observational studies.

  4. Impact of the modal aerosol scheme GLOMAP-mode on aerosol forcing in the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bellouin, N.; Mann, G. W.; Woodhouse, M. T.; Johnson, C.; Carslaw, K. S.; Dalvi, M.

    2012-08-01

    The Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM) includes two aerosol schemes: the Coupled Large-scale Aerosol Simulator for Studies in Climate (CLASSIC), and the new Global Model of Aerosol Processes (GLOMAP-mode). GLOMAP-mode is a modal aerosol microphysics scheme that simulates not only aerosol mass but also aerosol number, represents internally-mixed particles, and includes aerosol microphysical processes such as nucleation. In this study, both schemes provide hindcast simulations of natural and anthropogenic aerosol species for the period 2000-2006. HadGEM simulations using GLOMAP-mode compare better than CLASSIC against a data-assimilated aerosol re-analysis and aerosol ground-based observations. GLOMAP-mode sulphate aerosol residence time is two days longer than CLASSIC sulphate aerosols, whereas black carbon residence time is much shorter. As a result, CLASSIC underestimates aerosol optical depths in continental regions of the Northern Hemisphere and likely overestimates absorption in remote regions. Aerosol direct and first indirect radiative forcings are computed from simulations of aerosols with emissions for the year 1850 and 2000. In 1850, GLOMAP-mode predicts lower aerosol optical depths and higher cloud droplet number concentrations than CLASSIC. Consequently, simulated clouds are much less susceptible to natural and anthropogenic aerosol changes when the microphysical scheme is used. In particular, the response of cloud condensation nuclei to an increase in dimethyl sulphide emissions becomes a factor of four smaller. The combined effect of different 1850 baselines, residence times, and cloud susceptibilities, leads to substantial differences in the aerosol forcings simulated by the two schemes. GLOMAP-mode finds a present-day direct aerosol forcing of -0.49 W m-2 on a global average, 72% stronger than the corresponding forcing from CLASSIC. This difference is compensated by changes in first indirect aerosol forcing: the forcing of -1.17 W m-2

  5. Have tropospheric aerosol emissions contributed to the recent climate hiatus?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kühn, Thomas; Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Laakso, Anton; Lu, Zifeng; Bergman, Tommi; Mikkonen, Santtu; Kokkola, Harri; Korhonen, Hannele; Räisänen, Petri; Streets, David G.; Romakkaniemi, Sami; Laaksonen, Ari

    2014-05-01

    During the last 15 years global warming has slowed considerably, with the resulting plateau in global temperature records being dubbed the climate hiatus. Apart from variations in solar irradiance and ocean temperature, increased anthropogenic aerosol emissions in South and East Asia have been suggested as possible causes for this hiatus. While European and and North American aerosol emissions have constantly decreased since the 1980's, emissions in China and India have started increasing at the same time and, although total global aerosol emissions have decreased, aerosol effects on the global energy budget are expected to enhance towards the equator due to stronger irradiance there. In this study we used the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM2 to assess the effect that this re-distribution of anthropogenic aerosol emissions towards the equator may have on climate. To this end, we computed radiative forcing and equilibrium temperature response due to the change in global aerosol emissions (black carbon (BC), organic carbon and sulphur dioxide) between 1996 and 2010, keeping all other anthropogenic influences fixed. Surprisingly we found that the cooling due the increased aerosol emissions in China and India is almost negligible compared to the warming caused by the decreasing aerosol emissions in Europe and North America. The radiative flux perturbation (RFP; includes aerosol indirect effects) was 0.42 W/m2 and the change in global equilibrium 2 m temperature increased by 0.25 °C. The lack of cooling in China and India stems from a cancellation of sulfate cooling and BC warming, especially over China. There, the strong cloud cover leads to both attenuation of sulphate aerosol light scattering and saturation tendency of indirect aerosol effects on clouds. BC levels on the other hand increase also above the clouds (relative increase of BC levels is almost uniform with height), leading to warming through light absorption.

  6. Enhanced shortwave cloud radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosols

    SciTech Connect

    Schwartz, S.E.; Slingo, A.

    1995-05-01

    It has been suggested that anthropogenic aerosols in the troposphere can influence the microphysical properties of clouds and in turn their reflectivity, thereby exerting a radiative influence on climate. This article presents the theoretical basis for of this so-called indirect forcing and reviews pertinent observational evidence and climate model calculations of its magnitude and geographical distribution. We restrict consideration to liquid-water clouds.

  7. How Important Is Organic Aerosol Hygroscopicity to Aerosol Indirect Forcing?

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, Xiaohong; Wang, Jian

    2010-12-07

    Organics are among the most abundant aerosol components in the atmosphere. However, there are still large uncertainties with emissions of primary organic aerosol (POA) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) (precursor gases of secondary organic aerosol, SOA), formation and yield of SOA, and chemical and physical properties (e.g., hygroscopicity) of POA and SOA. All these may have significant impacts on aerosol direct and indirect forcing estimated from global models. In this study a modal aerosol module (MAM) in the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) is used to examine sensitivities of aerosol indirect forcing to hygroscopicity (“κ” value) of POA and SOA. Our model simulation indicates that in the present-day condition changing “κ” value of POA from 0 to 0.1 increases the number concentration of cloud condensational nuclei (CCN) at supersaturation S=0.1% by 40-60% over the POA source regions, while changing “κ” value of SOA by ±50% (from 0.14 to 0.07 and 0.21) changes the CCN within 30%. Changes in the in-cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC) are within 20% in most locations on the globe with the above changes in “κ” value of POA and SOA. Global annual mean anthropogenic aerosol indirect forcing (AIF) between present-day (PD) and pre-industrial (PI) conditions change by 0.4 W m-2 with the control run of -1.3 W m-2. AIF reduces with the increase hygroscopicity of organic aerosol, indicating the important role of natural organic aerosol in buffering the relative change of CDNC from PI to PD.

  8. Role of Climate Change in Predictions of Future Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, H.; Chen, W.; Seinfeld, J.

    2006-12-01

    A unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model II is applied to simulate equilibrium climate change driven by changes in greenhouse gases (GHGs) and/or aerosols over 2000-2100 to examine the effects of climate change on global distributions of tropospheric ozone and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust aerosols. We consider only direct radiative effect of aerosols on future climate in this study. Since aerosol levels will both affect and be affected by future climate, we identify the role of aerosol-driven climate in predicting future air pollutants by performing a number of sensitivity studies. The year 2100 GHG concentrations as well as the anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors and aerosols/aerosol precursors are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2. Although greenhouse gases are the most important drivers of global climate change, aerosols are very influential on regional climate through absorption and scattering of solar radiation. As aerosol concentrations increase over 2000-2100, aerosol-induced cooling at the surface, increase in atmospheric stability, and reduction in precipitation are predicted to increase surface-layer concentrations of pollutants over populated areas; Aerosol-induced climate change is therefore predicted to have a positive feedback to tropospheric aerosol concentrations. We also compare the effect of GHG-driven climate on atmospheric composition with that of aerosol-driven climate. Results suggest that it is important to account for climate responses to aerosol forcing in predicting future ozone and aerosols.

  9. OCS, stratospheric aerosols and climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turco, R. P.; Whitten, R. C.; Toon, O. B.; Pollack, J. B.; Hamill, P.

    1980-01-01

    Carbonyl sulphide (OCS) is found to be the predominant sulphur-bearing compound in our atmosphere1-3. It contributes to the formation of stratospheric sulphate aerosol particles4, which affect the Earth's radiation balance and climate5-7. Using recently obtained data, we estimate that OCS has a global source of ~5 tg per year (tg = 1012 g) and a lifetime of roughly 1 yr. We calculate that increasing anthropogenic emissions of OCS could cause measurable climate alterations within the next century. Numerous sources of OCS have been identified (see Fig. 1). Crutzen et al.8 estimate that natural and agricultural fires contribute 0.2-0.3 tg of OCS to the atmosphere each year. Adams et al.9 measured average OCS emission rates for a variety of common soils of about 0.004 g m-2 yr-1, which may be extrapolated to a global OCS source of nearly 0.5 tg yr-1. Adams et al.9 also noted OCS emissions several thousand times greater than average above saline marshes. Carbonyl sulphide has been detected near cattle feedlots in concentrations as high as 6,000 p.p.b.v.10. Volcanoes and fumaroles seem to represent a minor source of OCS (refs 11,12). We estimate that the direct contributions of biospheric processes to the OCS budget may be ~1 tg yr-1.

  10. Climate Change and Aerosol Feedbacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Norman, Ann-Lise

    2008-05-01

    Climate instability is expected as mixing ratios of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere increase. The current trend in rising temperature can be related to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. However, this trend may change as feedback mechanisms amplify; one of the least-understood aspects of climate change. Formation of cloud condensation nuclei from rising sulfate concentrations in the atmosphere may counteract the current warming trend. A key point is where the sulfate, and cloud condensation nuclei are formed. Is cloud formation widespread or localized near sulfate emission sources? A major source of atmospheric sulfate is dimethylsulfide, a compound related to biotic turnover in the surface ocean that constitutes a widespread natural source of aerosols over the remote ocean. A second major source contributing a significant proportion of atmospheric sulfate in the northern hemisphere is produced over continents from industrial activities and fossil fuel combustion. Distinguishing the source of sulfate in well-mixed air is important so that relationships with cloud formation, sea-ice in polar regions, and albedo can be explored. This distinction in sulfate sources can be achieved using isotope apportionment techniques. Recent measurements show an increase in biogenic sulfate coincident with rising temperatures in the Arctic and large amounts sulfur from DMS oxidation over the Atlantic, potentially indicating a widespread biotic feedback to warming over northern oceans.

  11. Historical anthropogenic radiative forcing of changes in biogenic secondary aerosol

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Acosta Navarro, Juan; D'Andrea, Stephen; Pierce, Jeffrey; Ekman, Annica; Struthers, Hamish; Zorita, Eduardo; Guenther, Alex; Arneth, Almut; Smolander, Sampo; Kaplan, Jed; Farina, Salvatore; Scott, Catherine; Rap, Alexandru; Farmer, Delphine; Spracklen, Domink; Riipinen, Ilona

    2016-04-01

    Human activities have lead to changes in the energy balance of the Earth and the global climate. Changes in atmospheric aerosols are the second largest contributor to climate change after greenhouse gases since 1750 A.D. Land-use practices and other environmental drivers have caused changes in the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) well before 1750 A.D, possibly causing climate effects through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. Two numerical emission models LPJ-GUESS and MEGAN were used to quantify the changes in aerosol forming BVOC emissions in the past millennium. A chemical transport model of the atmosphere (GEOS-Chem-TOMAS) was driven with those BVOC emissions to quantify the effects on radiation caused by millennial changes in SOA. We found that global isoprene emissions decreased after 1800 A.D. by about 12% - 15%. This decrease was dominated by losses of natural vegetation, whereas monoterpene and sesquiterpene emissions increased by about 2% - 10%, driven mostly by rising surface air temperatures. From 1000 A.D. to 1800 A.D, isoprene, monoterpene and sesquiterpene emissions decline by 3% - 8% driven by both, natural vegetation losses, and the moderate global cooling between the medieval climate anomaly and the little ice age. The millennial reduction in BVOC emissions lead to a 0.5% to 2% reduction in climatically relevant aerosol particles (> 80 nm) and cause a direct radiative forcing between +0.02 W/m² and +0.07 W/m², and an indirect radiative forcing between -0.02 W/m² and +0.02 W/m².

  12. Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing Derived from Sea WiFS-Inferred Aerosol Optical Properties

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chou, Ming-Dah; Chan, Pui-King; Wang, Menghua

    1999-01-01

    Aerosol optical properties inferred from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) radiance measurements are used to compute the aerosol shortwave radiative forcing using a radiative transfer model. The aerosol optical thickness at the wavelength of 865-nm is taken from the SeaWIFS archive. It is found that the nominal optical thickness over oceans ranges from 0.1 to 0.2. Using a maritime aerosol model and the radiances measured at the various SeaWiFS channels, the Angstrom exponent is determined to be 0.2174, the single-scattering albedo to be 0.995, and the asymmetry factor to be 0.786. The radiative transfer model has eight bands in the visible and ultraviolet spectral regions and three bands in the near infrared. It includes the absorption due to aerosols, water vapor, carbon dioxide, and oxygen, and the scattering due to aerosols and gases (Rayleigh scattering). The radiative forcing is computed over global oceans for four months (January, April, July, and October, 1998) to represent four seasons. It is found that the aerosol radiative forcing is large and changes significantly with seasons near the continents with large-scale forest fires and desert dust. Averaged over oceans and the four months, the aerosol radiative forcing is approximately 7 W/sq m at the top of the atmosphere. This large radiative forcing is expected to have a significant cooling effect on the Earth's climate as implied from simulations of a number of general circulation models.

  13. Attribution of climate forcing to economic sectors.

    PubMed

    Unger, Nadine; Bond, Tami C; Wang, James S; Koch, Dorothy M; Menon, Surabi; Shindell, Drew T; Bauer, Susanne

    2010-02-23

    A much-cited bar chart provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change displays the climate impact, as expressed by radiative forcing in watts per meter squared, of individual chemical species. The organization of the chart reflects the history of atmospheric chemistry, in which investigators typically focused on a single species of interest. However, changes in pollutant emissions and concentrations are a symptom, not a cause, of the primary driver of anthropogenic climate change: human activity. In this paper, we suggest organizing the bar chart according to drivers of change-that is, by economic sector. Climate impacts of tropospheric ozone, fine aerosols, aerosol-cloud interactions, methane, and long-lived greenhouse gases are considered. We quantify the future evolution of the total radiative forcing due to perpetual constant year 2000 emissions by sector, most relevant for the development of climate policy now, and focus on two specific time points, near-term at 2020 and long-term at 2100. Because sector profiles differ greatly, this approach fosters the development of smart climate policy and is useful to identify effective opportunities for rapid mitigation of anthropogenic radiative forcing.

  14. Attribution of climate forcing to economic sectors

    PubMed Central

    Unger, Nadine; Bond, Tami C.; Wang, James S.; Koch, Dorothy M.; Menon, Surabi; Shindell, Drew T.; Bauer, Susanne

    2010-01-01

    A much-cited bar chart provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change displays the climate impact, as expressed by radiative forcing in watts per meter squared, of individual chemical species. The organization of the chart reflects the history of atmospheric chemistry, in which investigators typically focused on a single species of interest. However, changes in pollutant emissions and concentrations are a symptom, not a cause, of the primary driver of anthropogenic climate change: human activity. In this paper, we suggest organizing the bar chart according to drivers of change—that is, by economic sector. Climate impacts of tropospheric ozone, fine aerosols, aerosol-cloud interactions, methane, and long-lived greenhouse gases are considered. We quantify the future evolution of the total radiative forcing due to perpetual constant year 2000 emissions by sector, most relevant for the development of climate policy now, and focus on two specific time points, near-term at 2020 and long-term at 2100. Because sector profiles differ greatly, this approach fosters the development of smart climate policy and is useful to identify effective opportunities for rapid mitigation of anthropogenic radiative forcing. PMID:20133724

  15. Radiative Forcing and Climate Response: From Paleoclimate to Future Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caldeira, K.; Cao, L.

    2011-12-01

    The concept of radiative forcing was introduced to allow comparison of climate effects of different greenhouse gases. In the classic view, radiative forcing is applied to the climate system and the climate responds to this forcing, approaching some equilibrium temperature change that is the product of the radiative forcing times the 'climate sensitivity' to radiative forcing. However, this classic view is oversimplified in several respects. Climate forcing and response often cannot be clearly separated. When carbon dioxide is added to the atmosphere, within days, the increased absorption of longwave radiation begins to warm the interior of the troposphere, affecting various tropospheric properties. Especially in the case of aerosols, it has been found that considering rapid tropospheric adjustment gives a better predictor of "equilibrium" climate change than does the classic definition of radiative forcing. Biogeochemistry also provides additional feedbacks on the climate system. It is generally thought that biogeochemistry helps diminish climate sensitivity to a carbon dioxide emission, since carbon dioxide tends to stimulate carbon dioxide uptake by land plants and the ocean. However, there is potential to destabilize carbon locked up in permafrost and at least some possibility to destabilize methane in continental shelf sediments. Furthermore, wetlands may provide a significant methane feedback. These and other possible biogeochemical feedbacks have the potential to greatly increase the sensitivity of the climate system to carbon dioxide emissions. As time scales extend out to millennia, the large ice sheets can begin to play an important role. In addition to affecting atmospheric flows by their sheer bulk, ice sheets tend to reflect a lot of energy to space. If carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere long enough, there is potential to melt back the large ice sheets, which would add additional warming to the climate system. It is likely that these millennial

  16. Sensitivity of precipitation extremes to radiative forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Lei; Wang, Zhili; Xu, Yangyang; Fu, Qiang

    2016-09-01

    Greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols are the two most important anthropogenic forcing agents in the 21st century. The expected declines of anthropogenic aerosols in the 21st century from present-day levels would cause an additional warming of the Earth's climate system, which would aggravate the climate extremes caused by GHG warming. We examine the increased rate of precipitation extremes with global mean surface warming in the 21st century caused by anthropogenic GHGs and aerosols, using an Earth system model ensemble simulation. Similar to mean precipitation, the increased rate of precipitation extremes caused by aerosol forcing is significantly larger than that caused by GHG forcing. The aerosol forcing in the coming decades can play a critical role in inducing change in precipitation extremes if a lower GHG emission pathway is adopted. Our results have implications for policy-making on climate adaptation to extreme precipitation events.

  17. On COBACC (COntinental Biosphere-Aerosol-Cloud-Climate) feedback

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kulmala, Markku

    2016-04-01

    Anthropogenic emissions of GHGs have increased substantially during the past century. Elevated concentrations of CO2 and methane are the most important forcing agents causing global warming. However, it is not straightforward to attribute or predict the climate change in detail, as the internal variability of climate is only partially understood, aerosol forcings are still highly uncertain, and there are many feedback mechanisms that are difficult to quantify. It has been recognized for decades that the biosphere plays an important role in climate. For example, Kulmala et al. (2004) suggested a negative climate feedback mechanism whereby higher temperatures and CO2-levels boost continental biomass production, leading to increased biogenic secondary organic aerosol (BSOA) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations, tending to cause cooling. This COBACC (COntinental Biosphere-Aerosol-Cloud-Climate) feedback is similar to the so-called CLAW-hypothesis by Charlson et al. (1987) which connects the ocean biochemistry and climate via a negative feedback loop involving CCN production due to sulphur emissions from plankton. The first quantification of the COBACC feedback loop (Kulmala et al. 2014) was based on continuous comprehensive observations at SMEAR II (Station for Measuring Forest Ecosystem-Atmosphere Relations) station in Hyytiälä, Finland, and showed that a 10 ppm increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration leads to a significant (several percent) increase in both carbon sink and aerosol source. These effects operate through changes in gross primary production, volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions and secondary aerosol formation associated with atmospheric oxidation of VOCs. Here we will describe the present knowledge from processes level understanding to whole COBACC feedback including some hints on biogenic and anthropogenic contributions to global aerosol number load. References: Charlson, R. J. et al. Nature 326, 655 1987 Kulmala, M. et al. Atmos

  18. Trends of Measured Climate Forcing Agents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The growth rate of climate forcing by measured greenhouse gases peaked near 1980 at almost 5 W/sq m per century. This growth rate has since declined to approximately equal to 3 W/sq m per century, largely because of cooperative international actions. We argue that trends can be reduced to the level needed for the moderate "alternative" climate scenario (approximately equal to 2 W/M2 per century for the next 50 years) by means of concerted actions that have other benefits, but the forcing reductions are not automatic "co-benefits" of actions that slow CO2 emissions. Current trends of climate forcings by aerosols remain very uncertain. Nevertheless, practical constraints on changes in emission levels suggest that global warming at a rate + 0.15 +/- 0.05 C per decade will occur over the next several decades.

  19. Spatial distributions and seasonal cycles of aerosol climate effects in India seen in a global climate-aerosol model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henriksson, S. V.; Pietikäinen, J.-P.; Hyvärinen, A.-P.; Räisänen, P.; Kupiainen, K.; Tonttila, J.; Hooda, R.; Lihavainen, H.; O'Donnell, D.; Backman, L.; Klimont, Z.; Laaksonen, A.

    2014-09-01

    Climate-aerosol interactions in India are studied by employing the global climate-aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM and the GAINS inventory for anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Model validation is done for black carbon surface concentrations in Mukteshwar and for features of the monsoon circulation. Seasonal cycles and spatial distributions of radiative forcing and the temperature and rainfall responses are presented for different model setups. While total aerosol radiative forcing is strongest in the summer, anthropogenic forcing is considerably stronger in winter than in summer. Local seasonal temperature anomalies caused by aerosols are mostly negative with some exceptions, e.g., parts of northern India in March-May. Rainfall increases due to the elevated heat pump (EHP) mechanism and decreases due to solar dimming mechanisms (SDMs) and the relative strengths of these effects during different seasons and for different model setups are studied. Aerosol light absorption does increase rainfall in northern India, but effects due to solar dimming and circulation work to cancel the increase. The total aerosol effect on rainfall is negative for northern India in the months of June-August, but during March-May the effect is positive for most model setups. These differences between responses in different seasons might help converge the ongoing debate on the EHPs and SDMs. Due to the complexity of the problem and known or potential sources for error and bias, the results should be interpreted cautiously as they are completely dependent on how realistic the model is. Aerosol-rainfall correlations and anticorrelations are shown not to be a reliable sole argument for deducing causality.

  20. Radiative forcing under mixed aerosol conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    GarcíA, O. E.; Expósito, F. J.; DíAz, J. P.; DíAz, A. M.

    2011-01-01

    The mixture of mineral dust with biomass burning or urban-industrial aerosols presents significant differences in optical properties when compared to those of the individual constituents, leading to different impacts on solar radiation levels. This effect is assessed by estimating the direct radiative forcing (ΔF) of these aerosols from solar flux models using the radiative parameters derived from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). These data reveal that, in oceanic and vegetative covers (surface albedo (SA) < 0.30), the aerosol effect at the top of atmosphere (TOA) is always cooling the Earth-atmosphere system, regardless of the aerosol type. The obtained average values of ΔF range between -27 ± 15 Wm-2 (aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 0.55 μm, 0.3 ± 0.3) for mineral dust mixed with urban-industrial aerosols, registered in the East Asia region, and -34 ± 18 Wm-2 (AOD = 0.8 ± 0.4) for the mixture of the mineral dust and biomass burning particles, observed in the Central Africa region. In the intermediate SA range (0.30-0.50) the TOA radiative effect depends on the aerosol absorption properties. Thus, aerosols with single scattering albedo at 0.55 μm lower than ˜0.88 lead to a warming of the system, with ΔF of 10 ± 11 Wm-2 for the mixture of mineral dust and biomass burning. Cases with SA > 0.30 are not present in East Asia region. At the bottom of atmosphere (BOA) the maximum ΔF values are associated with the highest AOD levels obtained for the mixture of mineral dust and biomass burning aerosols (-130 ± 44 Wm-2 with AOD = 0.8 ± 0.4 for SA < 0.30).

  1. Aerosol Properties and Radiative Forcing over Kanpur during Severe Aerosol Loading Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Kaskaoutis, D. G.; Sinha, P. R.; Vinoj, V.; Kosmopoulos, P. G.; Tripathi, S. N.; Misra, Amit; Sharma, M.; Singh, R. P.

    2013-11-01

    Atmospheric aerosols over India exhibit large spatio-temporal fluctuation driven by the local monsoon system, emission rates and seasonally-changed air masses. The northern part of India is well-known for its high aerosol loading throughout the year due to anthropogenic emissions, dust influence and biomass burning. On certain circumstances and, under favorable weather conditions, the aerosol load can be severe, causing significant health concerns and climate implications. The present work analyzes the aerosol episode (AE) days and examines the modification in aerosol properties and radiative forcing during the period 2001-2010 based on Kanpur-AERONET sun photometer data. As AEs are considered the days having daily-mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) above the decadal mean + 1 STD (standard deviation); the threshold value is defined at 0.928. The results identify 277 out of 2095 days (13.2%) of AEs over Kanpur, which are most frequently observed during post-monsoon (78 cases, 18.6%) and monsoon (76, 14.7%) seasons due to biomass-burning episodes and dust influence, respectively. On the other hand, the AEs in winter and pre-monsoon are lower in both absolute and percentage values (65, 12.5% and 58, 9.1%, respectively). The modification in aerosol properties on the AE days is strongly related to season. Thus, in post-monsoon and winter the AEs are associated with enhanced presence of fine-mode aerosols and Black Carbon from anthropogenic pollution and any kind of burning, while in pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons they are mostly associated with transported dust. Aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) calculated using SBDART shows much more surface (~-69 to -97 Wm-2) and Top of Atmosphere cooling (-20 to -30 Wm-2) as well as atmospheric heating (~43 to 71 Wm-2) during the AE days compared to seasonal means. These forcing values are mainly controlled by the higher AODs and the modified aerosol characteristics (Angstrom α, SSA) during the AE days in each season and may cause

  2. Inhomogeneous Forcing and Transient Climate Sensitivity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shindell, Drew T.

    2014-01-01

    Understanding climate sensitivity is critical to projecting climate change in response to a given forcing scenario. Recent analyses have suggested that transient climate sensitivity is at the low end of the present model range taking into account the reduced warming rates during the past 10-15 years during which forcing has increased markedly. In contrast, comparisons of modelled feedback processes with observations indicate that the most realistic models have higher sensitivities. Here I analyse results from recent climate modelling intercomparison projects to demonstrate that transient climate sensitivity to historical aerosols and ozone is substantially greater than the transient climate sensitivity to CO2. This enhanced sensitivity is primarily caused by more of the forcing being located at Northern Hemisphere middle to high latitudes where it triggers more rapid land responses and stronger feedbacks. I find that accounting for this enhancement largely reconciles the two sets of results, and I conclude that the lowest end of the range of transient climate response to CO2 in present models and assessments (less than 1.3 C) is very unlikely.

  3. Potential Climate Effects of Dust Aerosols' over West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    JI, Z.; Wang, G.; Pal, J. S.; Yu, M.

    2014-12-01

    Climate in West Africa is under the influence of the West African monsoon circulation and mineral dust emitted from the Sahara desert (which is the world's largest source of mineral dust emission). Dust aerosols alter the atmospheric radiative fluxes and act as cloud condensation nuclei in the process of emission, transportation and deposition. However, our understanding regarding how dust aerosols influence the present-day and future climate of West Africa is very limited. In this study, a regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5 is used to investigate the potential climatic effects of dust aerosols both in present (1981-2000) and future (2081-2100) periods over WA. First, the model performance and dust climatic effects are evaluated. The contribution of dust climatic effects under RCP8.5 scenario and their confounding effects with land use change are assessed. Our results indicate that the model can reproduce with reasonable accuracy the spatial and temporal distribution of climatology, aerosol optical depth and surface concentration over WA. The shortwave radiative forcing of dust is negative in the surface and positive in the atmosphere, with greater changes in JJA and MAM compared to those in SON and DJF. Over most of West Africa, cooling is the dominant effect on temperature. Their impact on precipitation features a dipole pattern, with decrease in the north and increase in the south of West Africa. Despite the dust-induced decrease of precipitation amount, dusts cause extreme precipitation to increase. To evaluate the uncertainties surrounding our modeling results, sensitivity experiments driven by ICBC from MIROC-ESM and CESM and their dynamic downscaling results are used for comparisons. Results from these sensitivity experiments indicate that the impact of dust aerosols on present and future climate is robust.

  4. Aerosol Climate Time Series Evaluation In ESA Aerosol_cci

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Popp, T.; de Leeuw, G.; Pinnock, S.

    2015-12-01

    Within the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) Aerosol_cci (2010 - 2017) conducts intensive work to improve algorithms for the retrieval of aerosol information from European sensors. By the end of 2015 full mission time series of 2 GCOS-required aerosol parameters are completely validated and released: Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from dual view ATSR-2 / AATSR radiometers (3 algorithms, 1995 - 2012), and stratospheric extinction profiles from star occultation GOMOS spectrometer (2002 - 2012). Additionally, a 35-year multi-sensor time series of the qualitative Absorbing Aerosol Index (AAI) together with sensitivity information and an AAI model simulator is available. Complementary aerosol properties requested by GCOS are in a "round robin" phase, where various algorithms are inter-compared: fine mode AOD, mineral dust AOD (from the thermal IASI spectrometer), absorption information and aerosol layer height. As a quasi-reference for validation in few selected regions with sparse ground-based observations the multi-pixel GRASP algorithm for the POLDER instrument is used. Validation of first dataset versions (vs. AERONET, MAN) and inter-comparison to other satellite datasets (MODIS, MISR, SeaWIFS) proved the high quality of the available datasets comparable to other satellite retrievals and revealed needs for algorithm improvement (for example for higher AOD values) which were taken into account for a reprocessing. The datasets contain pixel level uncertainty estimates which are also validated. The paper will summarize and discuss the results of major reprocessing and validation conducted in 2015. The focus will be on the ATSR, GOMOS and IASI datasets. Pixel level uncertainties validation will be summarized and discussed including unknown components and their potential usefulness and limitations. Opportunities for time series extension with successor instruments of the Sentinel family will be described and the complementarity of the different satellite aerosol products

  5. Irrigation as an Historical Climate Forcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Shukla, Sonali P.; Puma, Michael J.; Nazarenko, Larissa S.

    2014-01-01

    Irrigation is the single largest anthropogenic water use, a modification of the land surface that significantly affects surface energy budgets, the water cycle, and climate. Irrigation, however, is typically not included in standard historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations along with other anthropogenic and natural forcings. To investigate the importance of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing, we conduct two 5-member ensemble GCM experiments. Both are setup identical to the historical forced (anthropogenic plus natural) scenario used in version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, but in one experiment we also add water to the land surface using a dataset of historically estimated irrigation rates. Irrigation has a negligible effect on the global average radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere, but causes significant cooling of global average surface air temperatures over land and dampens regional warming trends. This cooling is regionally focused and is especially strong in Western North America, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Asia. Irrigation enhances cloud cover and precipitation in these same regions, except for summer in parts of Monsoon Asia, where irrigation causes a reduction in monsoon season precipitation. Irrigation cools the surface, reducing upward fluxes of longwave radiation (increasing net longwave), and increases cloud cover, enhancing shortwave reflection (reducing net shortwave). The relative magnitude of these two processes causes regional increases (northern India) or decreases (Central Asia, China) in energy availability at the surface and top of the atmosphere. Despite these changes in net radiation, however, climate responses are due primarily to larger magnitude shifts in the Bowen ratio from sensible to latent heating. Irrigation impacts on temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables are regionally significant, even while other anthropogenic forcings (anthropogenic aerosols

  6. Irrigation as an historical climate forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Shukla, Sonali P.; Puma, Michael J.; Nazarenko, Larissa S.

    2015-03-01

    Irrigation is the single largest anthropogenic water use, a modification of the land surface that significantly affects surface energy budgets, the water cycle, and climate. Irrigation, however, is typically not included in standard historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations along with other anthropogenic and natural forcings. To investigate the importance of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing, we conduct two 5-member ensemble GCM experiments. Both are setup identical to the historical forced (anthropogenic plus natural) scenario used in version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, but in one experiment we also add water to the land surface using a dataset of historically estimated irrigation rates. Irrigation has a negligible effect on the global average radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere, but causes significant cooling of global average surface air temperatures over land and dampens regional warming trends. This cooling is regionally focused and is especially strong in Western North America, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Asia. Irrigation enhances cloud cover and precipitation in these same regions, except for summer in parts of Monsoon Asia, where irrigation causes a reduction in monsoon season precipitation. Irrigation cools the surface, reducing upward fluxes of longwave radiation (increasing net longwave), and increases cloud cover, enhancing shortwave reflection (reducing net shortwave). The relative magnitude of these two processes causes regional increases (northern India) or decreases (Central Asia, China) in energy availability at the surface and top of the atmosphere. Despite these changes in net radiation, however, climate responses are due primarily to larger magnitude shifts in the Bowen ratio from sensible to latent heating. Irrigation impacts on temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables are regionally significant, even while other anthropogenic forcings (anthropogenic aerosols

  7. On the relationship between aerosol model uncertainty and radiative forcing uncertainty

    PubMed Central

    Reddington, Carly L.; Carslaw, Kenneth S.

    2016-01-01

    The largest uncertainty in the historical radiative forcing of climate is caused by the interaction of aerosols with clouds. Historical forcing is not a directly measurable quantity, so reliable assessments depend on the development of global models of aerosols and clouds that are well constrained by observations. However, there has been no systematic assessment of how reduction in the uncertainty of global aerosol models will feed through to the uncertainty in the predicted forcing. We use a global model perturbed parameter ensemble to show that tight observational constraint of aerosol concentrations in the model has a relatively small effect on the aerosol-related uncertainty in the calculated forcing between preindustrial and present-day periods. One factor is the low sensitivity of present-day aerosol to natural emissions that determine the preindustrial aerosol state. However, the major cause of the weak constraint is that the full uncertainty space of the model generates a large number of model variants that are equally acceptable compared to present-day aerosol observations. The narrow range of aerosol concentrations in the observationally constrained model gives the impression of low aerosol model uncertainty. However, these multiple “equifinal” models predict a wide range of forcings. To make progress, we need to develop a much deeper understanding of model uncertainty and ways to use observations to constrain it. Equifinality in the aerosol model means that tuning of a small number of model processes to achieve model−observation agreement could give a misleading impression of model robustness. PMID:26848136

  8. The Aerosol-Monsoon Climate System of Asia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kyu-Myong, Kim

    2012-01-01

    In Asian monsoon countries such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air-pollution are worsening due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants stemming from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash flood or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human lives, and damages in crop and properties with devastating societal impacts on Asian countries. Historically, air-pollution and monsoon research are treated as separate problems. However a growing number of recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically intertwined and need to be studied jointly. Because of complexity of the dynamics of the monsoon systems, aerosol impacts on monsoons and vice versa must be studied and understood in the context of aerosol forcing in relationship to changes in fundamental driving forces of the monsoon climate system (e.g. sea surface temperature, land-sea contrast etc.) on time scales from intraseasonal variability (weeks) to climate change ( multi-decades). Indeed, because of the large contributions of aerosols to the global and regional energy balance of the atmosphere and earth surface, and possible effects of the microphysics of clouds and precipitation, a better understanding of the response to climate change in Asian monsoon regions requires that aerosols be considered as an integral component of a fully coupled aerosol-monsoon system on all time scales. In this paper, using observations and results from climate modeling, we will discuss the coherent variability of the coupled aerosol-monsoon climate system in South Asia and East Asia, including aerosol distribution and types, with respect to rainfall, moisture, winds, land-sea thermal contrast, heat sources and sink distributions in the atmosphere in seasonal, interannual to climate change time scales. We will show examples of how elevated

  9. Climate Impacts of Atmospheric Sulfate and Black Carbon Aerosols

    SciTech Connect

    Qian, Yun; Song, Qingyuan; Menon, Surabi; Yu, Shaocai; Liu, Shaw C.; Shi, Guangyu; Leung, Lai R.; Luo, Yunfeng

    2008-09-19

    Although the global average surface temperature has increased by about 0.6°C during the last century (IPCC, 2001), some regions such as East Asia, Eastern North America, and Western Europe have cooled rather than warmed during the past decades (Jones, 1988; Qian and Giorgi, 2000). Coherent changes at the regional scale may reflect responses to different climate forcings that need to be understood in order to predict the future net climate response at the global and regional scales under different emission scenarios. Atmospheric aerosols play an important role in global climate change (IPCC 2001). They perturb the earth’s radiative budget directly by scattering and absorbing solar and long wave radiation, and indirectly by changing cloud reflectivity, lifetime, and precipitation efficiency via their role as cloud condensation nuclei. Because aerosols have much shorter lifetime (days to weeks) compared to most greenhouse gases, they tend to concentrate near their emission sources and distribute very unevenly both in time and space. This non-uniform distribution of aerosols, in conjunction with the greenhouse effect, may lead to differential net heating in some areas and net cooling in others (Penner et al. 1994). Sulfate aerosols come mainly from the oxidation of sulfur dioxide (SO2) emitted from fossil fuel burning. Black carbon aerosols are directly emitted during incomplete combustion of biomass, coal, and diesel derived sources. Due to the different optical properties, sulfate and black carbon affect climate in different ways. Because of the massive emissions of sulfur and black carbon that accompany the rapid economic expansions in East Asia, understanding the effects of aerosols on climate is particularly important scientifically and politically in order to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies.

  10. Toward a New Era of Research in Aerosol/Cloud/Climate Interactions at LLNL

    SciTech Connect

    Chuang, C,; Dignon, J.; Grant, K.; Connell, P.; Bergman, D.; Rotman, D.; Wright, D.; McGraw, R.; Schwartz, S.

    2000-09-27

    One of the largest uncertainties in simulations of climate change over the industrial period is the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on the Earth's radiation budget. Much of this uncertainty arises from the limited capability for either precisely linking precursor gases to the formation and size distribution of the aerosols or quantitatively describing the existing levels of global aerosol loading. This project builds on our aerosol and chemistry expertise to address each of these uncertainties in a more quantitative fashion than is currently possible. With the current LDRD support, we are in the process to implement an aerosol microphysics module into our global chemistry model to more fundamentally and completely describe the processes that determine the distribution of atmospheric aerosols. Using this new modeling capability, in conjunction with the most current version of NCAR climate model, we will examine the influence of these processes on aerosol direct and indirect climate forcing.

  11. Variability of aerosol optical depth and aerosol radiative forcing over Northwest Himalayan region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saheb, Shaik Darga; Kant, Yogesh; Mitra, D.

    2016-05-01

    In recent years, the aerosol loading in India is increasing that has significant impact on the weather/climatic conditions. The present study discusses the analysis of temporal (monthly and seasonal) variation of aerosol optical depth(AOD) by the ground based observations from sun photometer and estimate the aerosol radiative forcing and heating rate over selected station Dehradun in North western Himalayas, India during 2015. The in-situ measurements data illustrate that the maximum seasonal average AOD observed during summer season AOD at 500nm ≍ 0.59+/-0.27 with an average angstrom exponent, α ≍0.86 while minimum during winter season AOD at 500nm ≍ 0.33+/-0.10 with angstrom exponent, α ≍1.18. The MODIS and MISR derived AOD was also compared with the ground measured values and are good to be in good agreement. Analysis of air mass back trajectories using HYSPLIT model reveal that the transportation of desert dust during summer months. The Optical Properties of Aerosols and clouds (OPAC) model was used to compute the aerosol optical properties like single scattering albedo (SSA), Angstrom coefficient (α) and Asymmetry(g) parameter for each day of measurement and they are incorporated in a Discrete Ordinate Radiative Transfer model, i.e Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (SBDART) to estimate the direct short-wave (0.25 to 4 μm) Aerosol Radiative forcing at the Surface (SUR), the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and Atmosphere (ATM). The maximum Aerosol Radiative Forcing (ARF) was observed during summer months at SUR ≍ -56.42 w/m2, at TOA ≍-21.62 w/m2 whereas in ATM ≍+34.79 w/m2 with corresponding to heating rate 1.24°C/day with in lower atmosphere.

  12. Irrigation As an Historical Climate Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cook, B.; Puma, M. J.; McDermid, S. P.; Nazarenko, L.

    2014-12-01

    Irrigation is the single largest anthropogenic water use, a modification of the land surface that significantly affects surface energy budgets, the water cycle, and climate. Irrigation, however, is typically not included in standard historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations along with other anthropogenic and natural forcings. To investigate the importance of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing, we conduct two 5-member ensemble GCM experiments. Both are setup identical to the historical forced (anthropogenic plus natural) scenario used in version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, but in one experiment we also add water to the land surface using a dataset of historically estimated irrigation rates. Irrigation has a negligible effect on the global average radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere, but causes significant cooling of global average surface air temperatures over land and dampens regional warming trends. This cooling is regionally focused and is especially strong in Western North America, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Asia. Irrigation enhances cloud cover and precipitation in these same regions, except for summer in parts of Monsoon Asia, where irrigation causes a reduction in monsoon season precipitation. Irrigation cools the surface, reducing upward fluxes of longwave radiation (increasing net longwave), and increases cloud cover, enhancing shortwave reflection (reducing net shortwave). The relative magnitude of these two processes causes regional increases (northern India) or decreases (Central Asia, China) in energy availability at the surface and top of the atmosphere. Despite these changes in net radiation, however, climate responses are due primarily to larger magnitude shifts in the Bowen ratio from sensible to latent heating. Irrigation impacts on temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables are regionally significant, even while other anthropogenic forcings (anthropogenic aerosols

  13. Distinguishing Aerosol Impacts on Climate Over the Past Century

    SciTech Connect

    Koch, Dorothy; Menon, Surabi; Del Genio, Anthony; Ruedy, Reto; Alienov, Igor; Schmidt, Gavin A.

    2008-08-22

    Aerosol direct (DE), indirect (IE), and black carbon-snow albedo (BAE) effects on climate between 1890 and 1995 are compared using equilibrium aerosol-climate simulations in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model coupled to a mixed layer ocean. Pairs of control(1890)-perturbation(1995) with successive aerosol effects allow isolation of each effect. The experiments are conducted both with and without concurrent changes in greenhouse gases (GHG's). A new scheme allowing dependence of snow albedo on black carbon snow concentration is introduced. The fixed GHG experiments global surface air temperature (SAT) changed -0.2, -1.0 and +0.2 C from the DE, IE, and BAE. Ice and snow cover increased 1.0% from the IE and decreased 0.3% from the BAE. These changes were a factor of 4 larger in the Arctic. Global cloud cover increased by 0.5% from the IE. Net aerosol cooling effects are about half as large as the GHG warming, and their combined climate effects are smaller than the sum of their individual effects. Increasing GHG's did not affect the IE impact on cloud cover, however they decreased aerosol effects on SAT by 20% and on snow/ice cover by 50%; they also obscure the BAE on snow/ice cover. Arctic snow, ice, cloud, and shortwave forcing changes occur mostly during summer-fall, but SAT, sea level pressure, and long-wave forcing changes occur during winter. An explanation is that aerosols impact the cryosphere during the warm-season but the associated SAT effect is delayed until winter.

  14. Aerosol Radiative Forcing Derived From SeaWIFS - Retrieved Aerosol Optical Properties

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chou, Mong-Dah; Chan, Pui-King; Wang, Menghua; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    To understand climatic implications of aerosols over global oceans, the aerosol optical properties retrieved from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) are analyzed, and the effects of the aerosols on the Earth's radiation budgets (aerosol radiative forcing, ARF) are computed using a radiative transfer model. It is found that the distribution of the SeaWiFS-retrieved aerosol optical thickness is distinctively zonal. The maximum in the equatorial region coincides with the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and the maximum in the Southern Hemispheric high latitudes coincides with the region of prevailing westerlies. The minimum aerosol optical thickness is found in the subtropical high pressure regions, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. These zonal patterns clearly demonstrate the influence of atmospheric circulation on the oceanic aerosol distribution. Over global oceans, aerosols reduce the annual mean net downward solar flux by 5.4 W m-2 at the top of the atmosphere and by 6.1 W m-2 at the surface. The largest ARF is found in the tropical Atlantic, Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, the coastal regions of Southeast and East Asia, and the Southern Hemispheric high latitudes. During the period of the Indonesian big fires (September-December 1997), the cooling due to aerosols is greater than 15 W m-2 at the top of the atmosphere and greater than 30 W m(exp -1) at the surface in the vicinity of the maritime continents. The atmosphere receives extra solar radiation by greater than 15 W m(exp -1) over a large area. These large changes in radiative fluxes are expected to have enhanced the atmospheric stability, weakened the atmospheric circulation, and augmented the drought condition during that period. It would be very instructive to simulate the regional climatic. The model-calculated clear sky solar flux at the top of the atmosphere is compared with that derived from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES). The net downward solar flux of

  15. Steps Toward an Aerosol-Type Global Climate Data Record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kahn, R. A.

    2015-12-01

    Earth-observing satellites have produced a global record of aerosol optical depth approaching two decades in length. However a global record of aerosol properties at the level-of-detail required for constraining aerosol radiative forcing, aerosol-cloud interaction assessments, and many air quality applications is as yet lacking. Some aerosol-type information is derived from surface-based photometers, and qualitative classification is possible under favorable conditions from MISR, POLDER, and CALIPSO. More detailed particle microphysical properties are obtained from in situ measurements, but sampling is poor, and the suite of coincident measurements required for many applications is rarely acquired. Aerosol transport models can connect remote-sensing and in situ observations to specific aerosol sources, and extrapolate limited observational sampling in space and time. The biggest challenges to producing a global aerosol-type data record are filling gaps in detailed observations, maintaining global observing capabilities, and putting the pieces together. Obtaining detailed particle properties is probably the leading observational gap. One simplifying factor is that, for a given aerosol source and season, aerosol amounts can vary, but the particle properties tend to be repeatable. So an aircraft payload designed and deployed frequently enough to acquire the PDFs of the key variables could fill this gap; the SAM-CAAM (Systematic Aircraft Measurements to Characterize Aerosol Air Masses) concept aims at meeting this objective. Such data would add value to the entire satellite data record, improving the aerosol property assumptions in retrievals, and providing quantitative mass extinction efficiencies to translate between remote-sensing optical constraints and the aerosol mass book-kept in climate models. This will also help putting the pieces together in other ways, by improving the connection between remote-sensing particle types and those defined in models. The

  16. Observationally constrained estimates of carbonaceous aerosol radiative forcing.

    PubMed

    Chung, Chul E; Ramanathan, V; Decremer, Damien

    2012-07-17

    Carbonaceous aerosols (CA) emitted by fossil and biomass fuels consist of black carbon (BC), a strong absorber of solar radiation, and organic matter (OM). OM scatters as well as absorbs solar radiation. The absorbing component of OM, which is ignored in most climate models, is referred to as brown carbon (BrC). Model estimates of the global CA radiative forcing range from 0 to 0.7 Wm(-2), to be compared with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's estimate for the pre-Industrial to the present net radiative forcing of about 1.6 Wm(-2). This study provides a model-independent, observationally based estimate of the CA direct radiative forcing. Ground-based aerosol network data is integrated with field data and satellite-based aerosol observations to provide a decadal (2001 through 2009) global view of the CA optical properties and direct radiative forcing. The estimated global CA direct radiative effect is about 0.75 Wm(-2) (0.5 to 1.0). This study identifies the global importance of BrC, which is shown to contribute about 20% to 550-nm CA solar absorption globally. Because of the inclusion of BrC, the net effect of OM is close to zero and the CA forcing is nearly equal to that of BC. The CA direct radiative forcing is estimated to be about 0.65 (0.5 to about 0.8) Wm(-2), thus comparable to or exceeding that by methane. Caused in part by BrC absorption, CAs have a net warming effect even over open biomass-burning regions in Africa and the Amazon.

  17. Observationally constrained estimates of carbonaceous aerosol radiative forcing

    PubMed Central

    Chung, Chul E.; Ramanathan, V.; Decremer, Damien

    2012-01-01

    Carbonaceous aerosols (CA) emitted by fossil and biomass fuels consist of black carbon (BC), a strong absorber of solar radiation, and organic matter (OM). OM scatters as well as absorbs solar radiation. The absorbing component of OM, which is ignored in most climate models, is referred to as brown carbon (BrC). Model estimates of the global CA radiative forcing range from 0 to 0.7 Wm-2, to be compared with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s estimate for the pre-Industrial to the present net radiative forcing of about 1.6 Wm-2. This study provides a model-independent, observationally based estimate of the CA direct radiative forcing. Ground-based aerosol network data is integrated with field data and satellite-based aerosol observations to provide a decadal (2001 through 2009) global view of the CA optical properties and direct radiative forcing. The estimated global CA direct radiative effect is about 0.75 Wm-2 (0.5 to 1.0). This study identifies the global importance of BrC, which is shown to contribute about 20% to 550-nm CA solar absorption globally. Because of the inclusion of BrC, the net effect of OM is close to zero and the CA forcing is nearly equal to that of BC. The CA direct radiative forcing is estimated to be about 0.65 (0.5 to about 0.8) Wm-2, thus comparable to or exceeding that by methane. Caused in part by BrC absorption, CAs have a net warming effect even over open biomass-burning regions in Africa and the Amazon. PMID:22753522

  18. Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing Based on Combined A-Train Observations: Towards All-sky Estimates and Attribution to Aerosol Type

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Redemann, Jens; Shinozuka, Y.; Kacenelenbogen, M.; Russell, P.; Vaughan, M.; Ferrare, R.; Hostetler, C.; Rogers, R.; Burton, S.; Livingston, J.; Torres, O.; Remer, L.

    2014-01-01

    We describe a technique for combining CALIOP aerosol backscatter, MODIS spectral AOD (aerosol optical depth), and OMI AAOD (absorption aerosol optical depth) measurements for the purpose of estimating full spectral sets of aerosol radiative properties, and ultimately for calculating the 3-D distribution of direct aerosol radiative forcing. We present results using one year of data collected in 2007 and show comparisons of the aerosol radiative property estimates to collocated AERONET retrievals. Initial calculations of seasonal clear-sky aerosol radiative forcing based on our multi-sensor aerosol retrievals compare well with over-ocean and top of the atmosphere IPCC-2007 model-based results, and with more recent assessments in the "Climate Change Science Program Report: Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts" (2009). We discuss some of the challenges that exist in extending our clear-sky results to all-sky conditions. On the basis of comparisons to suborbital measurements, we present some of the limitations of the MODIS and CALIOP retrievals in the presence of adjacent or underlying clouds. Strategies for meeting these challenges are discussed. We also discuss a methodology for using the multi-sensor aerosol retrievals for aerosol type classification based on advanced clustering techniques. The combination of research results permits conclusions regarding the attribution of aerosol radiative forcing to aerosol type.

  19. Response of the climatic temperature to dust forcing, inferred from total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) aerosol index and the NASA assimilation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alpert, P.; Herman, J.; Kaufman, Y. J.; Carmona, I.

    Recently, Alpert et al. (Alpert, P., Shay-El, Y., Kaufman, Y.J., Tanre, D., DaSilva, A., Schubert, S., Joseph, J.H., 1998. Quantification of dust-forced heating of the lower troposphere, Nature 395 (6700), 367-370, (24 September).) suggested an indirect measure of the tropospheric temperature response to dust aerosols by using model updates — roughly speaking model errors — of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version No. 1 (GEOS-1) data assimilation system. They have shown that these updates, which provide information about missing physical processes not included in the predictive model, have monthly mean patterns, which bear a striking similarity to patterns of dust over the Atlantic. This similarity in the number of dusty days was used to estimate the atmospheric response to dust. Here, the study is extended for all the major subtropical deserts over Africa and Asia using the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) aerosol index ( AI) for dust recently derived by Herman et al. (Herman, J.R., Bhartia, P.K., Torres, O., Hsu, C., Seftor, C., Celarier, E., 1997. Global distribution of UV-absorbing aerosols from Nimbus 7/TOMS data, J. Geophys. Res. 102, 16911-16922.). It is shown that the TOMS dust is highly correlated with the model errors with a maximum at the altitude of about 580 hPa and for the month of June with average correlation coefficient of 0.69 reaching up to 0.8 for specific months. In contrast to the previous study where only dust over ocean was employed, here, much higher dust concentrations are detected and the linear heating for weak dust becomes quickly saturated for AI above 1.5, then drops for very high values of AI that exceed about 3. This result is consistent with the theoretical predictions.

  20. Aerosol Indirect Forcing Dictated by Warm Low-Cloud

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christensen, M.; Chen, Y. C.; Stephens, G. L.

    2014-12-01

    observations of deep convective clouds. Overall, marine warm low-cloud largely govern the aerosol indirect forcing due to its strong sensitivity. Given the significantly weaker sensitivities amongst other cloud regimes it is imperative to incorporate them to improve estimates of the overall strength of the aerosol indirect effect on climate.

  1. Direct radiative forcing from black carbon aerosols over urban environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Badarinath, K. V. S.; Madhavi Latha, K.

    There is growing evidence that the earth’s climate is changing and will likely continue to change in the future. It is still debated whether these changes are due to natural variability of the climate system or a result of increases in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Black carbon (BC) has become the subject of interest for a variety of reasons. BC aerosol may cause environmental as well as harmful health effects in densely inhabited regions. BC is a strong absorber of radiation in the visible and near-infrared part of the spectrum, where most of the solar energy is distributed. Black carbon is emitted into the atmosphere as a byproduct of all combustion processes, viz., vegetation burning, industrial effluents and motor vehicle exhausts, etc. In this paper, we present results from our measurements on black carbon aerosols, total aerosol mass concentration and aerosol optical depth over an urban environment namely Hyderabad during January to May, 2003. Diurnal variations of BC indicate high BC concentrations during 6:00 9:00 and 19:00 23:00 h. Weekday variations of BC concentrations increase gradually from Monday to Wednesday and gradually decrease from Thursday to Sunday. Analysis of traffic density along with meteorological parameters suggests that the primary determinant for BC concentration levels and patterns is traffic density. Seasonal variations of BC suggest that the BC concentrations are high during dry season compared to rainy season due to the scavenging by air. The fraction of BC to total mass concentration has been observed to be 7% during January to May. BC showed positive correlation with total mass concentration and aerosol optical depth at 500 nm. Radiative transfer calculations suggests that during January to May, diurnal averaged aerosol forcing at the surface is -33 Wm2 and at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) above 100 km it is observed to be +9 Wm-2. The results have been discussed in detail in the paper.

  2. The impact of volcanic aerosol on the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex: mechanisms and sensitivity to forcing structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toohey, M.; Krüger, K.; Bittner, M.; Timmreck, C.; Schmidt, H.

    2014-06-01

    Observations and simple theoretical arguments suggest that the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex is stronger in winters following major volcanic eruptions. However, recent studies show that climate models forced by prescribed volcanic aerosol fields fail to reproduce this effect. We investigate the impact of volcanic aerosol forcing on stratospheric dynamics, including the strength of the NH polar vortex, in ensemble simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. The model is forced by four different prescribed forcing sets representing the radiative properties of stratospheric aerosol following the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo: two forcing sets are based on observations, and are commonly used in climate model simulations, and two forcing sets are constructed based on coupled aerosol-climate model simulations. For all forcings, we find that temperature and zonal wind anomalies in the NH high latitudes are not directly impacted by anomalous volcanic aerosol heating. Instead, high latitude effects result from robust enhancements in stratospheric residual circulation, which in turn result, at least in part, from enhanced stratospheric wave activity. High latitude effects are therefore much less robust than would be expected if they were the direct result of aerosol heating. While there is significant ensemble variability in the high latitude response to each aerosol forcing set, the mean response is sensitive to the forcing set used. Significant differences, for example, are found in the NH polar stratosphere temperature and zonal wind response to two different forcing data sets constructed from different versions of SAGE II aerosol observations. Significant strengthening of the polar vortex, in rough agreement with the expected response, is achieved only using aerosol forcing extracted from prior coupled aerosol-climate model simulations. Differences in the dynamical response to the different forcing sets used imply that reproducing

  3. Aerosol Climate Time Series in ESA Aerosol_cci

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Popp, Thomas; de Leeuw, Gerrit; Pinnock, Simon

    2016-04-01

    Within the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) Aerosol_cci (2010 - 2017) conducts intensive work to improve algorithms for the retrieval of aerosol information from European sensors. Meanwhile, full mission time series of 2 GCOS-required aerosol parameters are completely validated and released: Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from dual view ATSR-2 / AATSR radiometers (3 algorithms, 1995 - 2012), and stratospheric extinction profiles from star occultation GOMOS spectrometer (2002 - 2012). Additionally, a 35-year multi-sensor time series of the qualitative Absorbing Aerosol Index (AAI) together with sensitivity information and an AAI model simulator is available. Complementary aerosol properties requested by GCOS are in a "round robin" phase, where various algorithms are inter-compared: fine mode AOD, mineral dust AOD (from the thermal IASI spectrometer, but also from ATSR instruments and the POLDER sensor), absorption information and aerosol layer height. As a quasi-reference for validation in few selected regions with sparse ground-based observations the multi-pixel GRASP algorithm for the POLDER instrument is used. Validation of first dataset versions (vs. AERONET, MAN) and inter-comparison to other satellite datasets (MODIS, MISR, SeaWIFS) proved the high quality of the available datasets comparable to other satellite retrievals and revealed needs for algorithm improvement (for example for higher AOD values) which were taken into account for a reprocessing. The datasets contain pixel level uncertainty estimates which were also validated and improved in the reprocessing. For the three ATSR algorithms the use of an ensemble method was tested. The paper will summarize and discuss the status of dataset reprocessing and validation. The focus will be on the ATSR, GOMOS and IASI datasets. Pixel level uncertainties validation will be summarized and discussed including unknown components and their potential usefulness and limitations. Opportunities for time series extension

  4. Boreal forests, aerosols and the impacts on clouds and climate.

    PubMed

    Spracklen, Dominick V; Bonn, Boris; Carslaw, Kenneth S

    2008-12-28

    Previous studies have concluded that boreal forests warm the climate because the cooling from storage of carbon in vegetation and soils is cancelled out by the warming due to the absorption of the Sun's heat by the dark forest canopy. However, these studies ignored the impacts of forests on atmospheric aerosol. We use a global atmospheric model to show that, through emission of organic vapours and the resulting condensational growth of newly formed particles, boreal forests double regional cloud condensation nuclei concentrations (from approx. 100 to approx. 200 cm(-3)). Using a simple radiative model, we estimate that the resulting change in cloud albedo causes a radiative forcing of between -1.8 and -6.7 W m(-2) of forest. This forcing may be sufficiently large to result in boreal forests having an overall cooling impact on climate. We propose that the combination of climate forcings related to boreal forests may result in an important global homeostasis. In cold climatic conditions, the snow-vegetation albedo effect dominates and boreal forests warm the climate, whereas in warmer climates they may emit sufficiently large amounts of organic vapour modifying cloud albedo and acting to cool climate.

  5. Aerosols: Non-CO2 Non-Greenhouse Non-Gas Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwartz, S. E.

    2005-05-01

    Tropospheric aerosols influence Earth's radiation budget and climate by scattering and absorbing solar radiation (direct effects) and by modifying the reflectivity and extent of clouds (indirect effects). While aerosol forcing is arguably less important from a policy perspective than greenhouse gas forcing because of the short residence times of these aerosols (about a week) compared to the lifetimes of the well mixed greenhouse gases (decades to centuries), knowledge of aerosol forcing over the industrial period is essential to empirical inference of Earth's climate sensitivity from temperature change over this period and to evaluation of the performance of climate model simulations over this period. Accuracy in global-average forcing by anthropogenic aerosols required for these purposes is estimated to be ~0.5 w m-2 [Schwartz, J. Air Waste Management Assoc. 54, 1351-1359 (2004)]. For an accumulation-mode (radius 50-1000 nm) scattering aerosol above a dark surface the forcing per optical depth (at 550 nm) during daylight hours for cloud-free sky is 50 to 100 W m-2. Such a forcing intensity implies, taking into account 50% nighttime and ~50% cloud cover, that global average optical depth of anthropogenic aerosol must be known to 0.02 - 0.04, an accuracy achievable by careful ground-based measurements, but which would be difficult to achieve globally because of high spatial and temporal variation. Top-of-atmosphere forcing for a given optical depth is sensitive also to single scattering albedo, size distribution (as manifested in asymmetry parameter, backscatter fraction, or Angstrom exponent) and surface reflectance; these sensitivities are examined here. It is necessary as well to determine the fraction of forcing that is due to anthropogenic aerosol. Similar considerations apply to aerosol indirect forcing, which depends to first approximation on the number concentration of cloud condensation nuclei as a function of applied supersaturation, which depends on the

  6. Climate Engineering with Stratospheric Aerosols and Associated Engineering Parameters

    SciTech Connect

    Kravitz, Benjamin S.

    2013-02-12

    Climate engineering with stratospheric aerosols, an idea inspired by large volcaniceruptions, could cool the Earth’s surface and thus alleviate some of the predicted dangerous impacts of anthropogenic climate change. However, the effectiveness of climate engineering to achieve a particular climate goal, and any associated side effects, depend on certain aerosol parameters and how the aerosols are deployed in the stratosphere. Through the examples of sulfate and black carbon aerosols, this paper examines "engineering" parameters-aerosol composition, aerosol size, and spatial and temporal variations in deployment-for stratospheric climate engineering. The effects of climate engineering are sensitive to these parameters, suggesting that a particle could be found ordesigned to achieve specific desired climate outcomes. This prospect opens the possibility for discussion of societal goals for climate engineering.

  7. Simulation of South Asian aerosols for regional climate studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nair, Vijayakumar S.; Solmon, Fabien; Giorgi, Filippo; Mariotti, Laura; Babu, S. Suresh; Moorthy, K. Krishna

    2012-02-01

    Extensive intercomparison of columnar and near-surface aerosols, simulated over the South Asian domain using the aerosol module included in the regional climate model (RegCM4) of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) have been carried out using ground-based network of Sun/sky Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) radiometers, satellite sensors such as Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), and ground-based black carbon (BC) measurements made at Aerosol Radiative Forcing over India (ARFI) network stations. In general, RegCM4 simulations reproduced the spatial and seasonal characteristics of aerosol optical depth over South Asia reasonably well, particularly over west Asia, where mineral dust is a major contributor to the total aerosol loading. In contrast, RegCM4 simulations drastically underestimated the BC mass concentrations over most of the stations, by a factor of 2 to 5, with a large spatial variability. Seasonally, the discrepancy between the measured and simulated BC tended to be higher during winter and periods when the atmospheric boundary layer is convectively stable (such as nighttime and early mornings), while during summer season and during periods when the boundary layer is convectively unstable (daytime) the discrepancies were much lower, with the noontime values agreeing very closely with the observations. A detailed analysis revealed that the model does not reproduce the nocturnal high in BC, observed at most of the Indian sites especially during winter, because of the excessive vertical transport of aerosols under stable boundary layer conditions. As far as the vertical distribution was concerned, the simulated vertical profiles of BC agreed well with airborne measurements during daytime. This comprehensive validation exercise reveals the strengths and weaknesses of the model in simulating the spatial and temporal heterogeneities of the aerosol fields over

  8. Past and Future Climate Forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven J. )

    2001-10-01

    Climate change is again in the news. The failure of the recent sixth meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) to agree on terms for the Kyoto Protocol the future of climate policy remains uncertain. It is important to be clear on where efforts need to be focused (in addition to how much effort is required, which would require a separate discussion). The recent paper by Hansen et al. has created some debate and controversy along these lines. In this paper, the authors argue that recent climate changes have been caused largely by non-CO2 greenhouse gases and that climate change over the next fifty years can be limited by focusing not only on carbon dioxide but on non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols. This paper will present an overview of these issues. A few of these points were also discussed in a recent commentary in Science magazine and are not repeated at length here. The discussion below will first address attribution of past climate changes, the radiatively important substances that will drive future climate change, and the mitigation of climate change.Journal name is WRONG. Interface does not allow me to type in correct name. Correct name should be''Physics and Society''.

  9. Total aerosol effect: forcing or radiative flux perturbation?

    SciTech Connect

    Lohmann, Ulrike; Storelvmo, Trude; Jones, Andy; Rotstayn, Leon; Menon, Surabi; Quaas, Johannes; Ekman, Annica; Koch, Dorothy; Ruedy, Reto

    2009-09-25

    Uncertainties in aerosol forcings, especially those associated with clouds, contribute to a large extent to uncertainties in the total anthropogenic forcing. The interaction of aerosols with clouds and radiation introduces feedbacks which can affect the rate of rain formation. Traditionally these feedbacks were not included in estimates of total aerosol forcing. Here we argue that they should be included because these feedbacks act quickly compared with the time scale of global warming. We show that for different forcing agents (aerosols and greenhouse gases) the radiative forcings as traditionally defined agree rather well with estimates from a method, here referred to as radiative flux perturbations (RFP), that takes these fast feedbacks and interactions into account. Thus we propose replacing the direct and indirect aerosol forcing in the IPCC forcing chart with RFP estimates. This implies that it is better to evaluate the total anthropogenic aerosol effect as a whole.

  10. Global Radiative Forcing of Coupled Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols in a Unified General Circulation Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liao, Hong; Seinfeld, John H.; Adams, Peter J.; Mickley, Loretta J.

    2008-01-01

    Global simulations of sea salt and mineral dust aerosols are integrated into a previously developed unified general circulation model (GCM), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM II', that simulates coupled tropospheric ozone-NOx-hydrocarbon chemistry and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, and secondary organic carbon aerosols. The fully coupled gas-aerosol unified GCM allows one to evaluate the extent to which global burdens, radiative forcing, and eventually climate feedbacks of ozone and aerosols are influenced by gas-aerosol chemical interactions. Estimated present-day global burdens of sea salt and mineral dust are 6.93 and 18.1 Tg with lifetimes of 0.4 and 3.9 days, respectively. The GCM is applied to estimate current top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiative forcing by tropospheric ozone and all natural and anthropogenic aerosol components. The global annual mean value of the radiative forcing by tropospheric ozone is estimated to be +0.53 W m(sup -2) at TOA and +0.07 W m(sup -2) at the Earth's surface. Global, annual average TOA and surface radiative forcing by all aerosols are estimated as -0.72 and -4.04 W m(sup -2), respectively. While the predicted highest aerosol cooling and heating at TOA are -10 and +12 W m(sup -2) respectively, surface forcing can reach values as high as -30 W m(sup -2), mainly caused by the absorption by black carbon, mineral dust, and OC. We also estimate the effects of chemistry-aerosol coupling on forcing estimates based on currently available understanding of heterogeneous reactions on aerosols. Through altering the burdens of sulfate, nitrate, and ozone, heterogeneous reactions are predicted to change the global mean TOA forcing of aerosols by 17% and influence global mean TOA forcing of tropospheric ozone by 15%.

  11. Intercomparison of Models Representing Direct Shortwave Radiative Forcing by Sulfate Aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boucher, O.; Schwartz, S. E.; Ackerman, T. P.; Anderson, T. L.; Bergstrom, B.; Bonnel, B.; Dahlback, A.; Fouquart, Y.; Chylek, P.; Fu, Q.; Halthore, R. N.; Haywood, J. M.; Iversen, T.; Kato, S.; Kinne, S.; Kirkevag, A.; Knapp, K. R.; Lacis, A.; Laszlo, I.; Mishchenko, M. I.

    2000-01-01

    The importance of aerosols as agents of climate change has recently been highlighted. However, the magnitude of aerosol forcing by scattering of shortwave radiation (direct forcing) is still very uncertain even for the relatively well characterized sulfate aerosol. A potential source of uncertainty is in the model representation of aerosol optical properties and aerosol influences on radiative transfer in the atmosphere. Although radiative transfer methods and codes have been compared in the past, these comparisons have not focused on aerosol forcing (change in net radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere). Here we report results of a project involving 12 groups using 15 models to examine radiative forcing by sulfate aerosol for a wide range of values of particle radius, aerosol optical depth, surface albedo, and solar zenith angle. Among the models that were employed were high and low spectral resolution models incorporating a variety of radiative transfer approximations as well as a line-by-line model. The normalized forcings (forcing per sulfate column burden) obtained with the several radiative transfer models were examined, and the discrepancies were characterized. All models simulate forcings of comparable amplitude and exhibit a similar dependence on input parameters. As expected for a non-light-absorbing aerosol, forcings were negative (cooling influence) except at high surface albedo combined with small solar zenith angle. The relative standard deviation of the zenith-angle-averaged normalized broadband forcing for 15 models-was 8% for particle radius near the maximum in this forcing (approx. 0.2 microns) and at low surface albedo. Somewhat greater model-to-model discrepancies were exhibited at specific solar zenith angles. Still greater discrepancies were exhibited at small particle radii and much greater discrepancies were exhibited at high surface albedos, at which the forcing changes sign; in these situations, however, the normalized forcing is

  12. Aerosol Spectral Radiative Forcing Efficiency from Airborne Measurements During Multiple Field Missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, S.; Leblanc, S. E.; Pilewskie, P.; Redemann, J.; Hostetler, C. A.; Ferrare, R. A.; Hair, J. W.

    2012-12-01

    Measurements of shortwave spectral irradiance in conjunction with measurements of aerosol optical depth are used to determine the direct aerosol radiative forcing for various different regions and missions. To better compare cases with different air masses and solar geometry, we use the concept of top-of-layer and bottom-of-layer relative forcing efficiency. The aerosol layers were sampled from aircraft during several field campaigns, including the Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations (MILAGRO, Mexico, 2006); the Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS, Alaska and Alberta, 2008), Research at the Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change (CalNex, California, 2010); and the Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry Experiment (DC3, central US, 2012). We show that the spectral shape of the relative forcing efficiency is similar for these aerosol layers regardless of the aerosol type. The spectral relative forcing efficiency at any one wavelength for the majority of the cases is constrained within a span of 20% per unit of midvisible aerosol optical depth. Single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, and surface albedo are secondary products for the various methods used to determine aerosol radiative forcing. Using these, we determine the diurnally averaged spectral and broadband top-of-atmosphere and surface radiative forcing efficiency for the various different aerosol types and surface conditions.

  13. Response of North Pacific eastern subtropical mode water to greenhouse gas versus aerosol forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xiang; Luo, Yiyong

    2016-04-01

    Mode water is a distinct water mass characterized by a near vertical homogeneous layer or low potential vorticity, and is considered essential for understanding ocean climate variability. Based on the output of GFDL CM3, this study investigates the response of eastern subtropical mode water (ESTMW) in the North Pacific to two different single forcings: greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosol. Under GHG forcing, ESTMW is produced on lighter isopycnal surfaces and is decreased in volume. Under aerosol forcing, in sharp contrast, it is produced on denser isopycnal surfaces and is increased in volume. The main reason for the opposite response is because surface ocean-to-atmosphere latent heat flux change over the ESTMW formation region shoals the mixed layer and thus weakens the lateral induction under GHG forcing, but deepens the mixed layer and thus strengthens the lateral induction under aerosol forcing. In addition, local wind changes are also favorable to the opposite response of ESTMW production to GHG versus aerosol.

  14. Warming-induced increase in aerosol number concentration likely to moderate climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paasonen, Pauli; Asmi, Ari; Petäjä, Tuukka; Kajos, Maija K.; Äijälä, Mikko; Junninen, Heikki; Holst, Thomas; Abbatt, Jonathan P. D.; Arneth, Almut; Birmili, Wolfram; van der Gon, Hugo Denier; Hamed, Amar; Hoffer, András; Laakso, Lauri; Laaksonen, Ari; Richard Leaitch, W.; Plass-Dülmer, Christian; Pryor, Sara C.; Räisänen, Petri; Swietlicki, Erik; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Worsnop, Douglas R.; Kerminen, Veli-Matti; Kulmala, Markku

    2013-06-01

    Atmospheric aerosol particles influence the climate system directly by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, and indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei. Apart from black carbon aerosol, aerosols cause a negative radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and substantially mitigate the warming caused by greenhouse gases. In the future, tightening of controls on anthropogenic aerosol and precursor vapour emissions to achieve higher air quality may weaken this beneficial effect. Natural aerosols, too, might affect future warming. Here we analyse long-term observations of concentrations and compositions of aerosol particles and their biogenic precursor vapours in continental mid- and high-latitude environments. We use measurements of particle number size distribution together with boundary layer heights derived from reanalysis data to show that the boundary layer burden of cloud condensation nuclei increases exponentially with temperature. Our results confirm a negative feedback mechanism between the continental biosphere, aerosols and climate: aerosol cooling effects are strengthened by rising biogenic organic vapour emissions in response to warming, which in turn enhance condensation on particles and their growth to the size of cloud condensation nuclei. This natural growth mechanism produces roughly 50% of particles at the size of cloud condensation nuclei across Europe. We conclude that biosphere-atmosphere interactions are crucial for aerosol climate effects and can significantly influence the effects of anthropogenic aerosol emission controls, both on climate and air quality.

  15. Aerosol Indirect Effects on Cirrus Clouds in Global Aerosol-Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, X.; Zhang, K.; Wang, Y.; Neubauer, D.; Lohmann, U.; Ferrachat, S.; Zhou, C.; Penner, J.; Barahona, D.; Shi, X.

    2015-12-01

    Cirrus clouds play an important role in regulating the Earth's radiative budget and water vapor distribution in the upper troposphere. Aerosols can act as solution droplets or ice nuclei that promote ice nucleation in cirrus clouds. Anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel and biomass burning activities have substantially perturbed and enhanced concentrations of aerosol particles in the atmosphere. Global aerosol-climate models (GCMs) have now been used to quantify the radiative forcing and effects of aerosols on cirrus clouds (IPCC AR5). However, the estimate uncertainty is very large due to the different representation of ice cloud formation and evolution processes in GCMs. In addition, large discrepancies have been found between model simulations in terms of the spatial distribution of ice-nucleating aerosols, relative humidity, and temperature fluctuations, which contribute to different estimates of the aerosol indirect effect through cirrus clouds. In this presentation, four GCMs with the start-of-the art representations of cloud microphysics and aerosol-cloud interactions are used to estimate the aerosol indirect effects on cirrus clouds and to identify the causes of the discrepancies. The estimated global and annual mean anthropogenic aerosol indirect effect through cirrus clouds ranges from 0.1 W m-2 to 0.3 W m-2 in terms of the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) net radiation flux, and 0.5-0.6 W m-2 for the TOA longwave flux. Despite the good agreement on global mean, large discrepancies are found at the regional scale. The physics behind the aerosol indirect effect is dramatically different. Our analysis suggests that burden of ice-nucleating aerosols in the upper troposphere, ice nucleation frequency, and relative role of ice formation processes (i.e., homogeneous versus heterogeneous nucleation) play key roles in determining the characteristics of the simulated aerosol indirect effects. In addition to the indirect effect estimate, we also use field campaign

  16. Atmospheric Feedbacks, Aerosol Forcings, and Tropical Precipitation Shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hwang, Y.; Frierson, D. M.; Kang, S.

    2011-12-01

    It is well known that variations in climate sensitivity among global climate models (GCMs) are largely attributable to differences in atmospheric feedbacks that affect the top of the atmosphere radiation budget. Here, we demonstrate how the hemispheric asymmetry of these feedbacks influence cross-equatorial energy transport, and thus explain differences in models projection of tropical precipitation. The framework we use is based on fundamental energetic constraints of the system: since both moisture transports and energy transports within the deep tropical atmosphere are governed by the Hadley circulation, a southward shift of the intertropical conversion zone (ITCZ) is associated with a northward transport of moist static energy. This situation is typically associated with enhanced heating of the Southern Hemisphere, often due to hemispheric differences in aerosols, clouds, water vapor, surface albedo changes. We find that the ITCZ appears to shift southward in the 20th century in both rain gauges (GHCN) and reanalysis (20CRP) data. Most of the global climate models (GCMs) in the CMIP3 archive reproduce the direction of this shift. However, they all underestimate the shift with greatly varying degree. Using the energetic framework, we conclude that (1) aerosol cooling in the northern hemisphere shifts the ITCZ south in all of the GCMs (2) differences in feedbacks (particularly cloud feedbacks) in GCMs are responsible for the spread in the ITCZ shifts. This result emphasizes that biases in feedbacks and forcings will not only affect global mean temperature, but will also influence climate in various latitudes through energy transport.

  17. Technical Note: Estimating Aerosol Effects on Cloud Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Ghan, Steven J.

    2013-10-09

    Estimating anthropogenic aerosol effects on the planetary energy balance through the aerosol influence on clouds using the difference in cloud radiative forcing from simulations with and without anthropogenic emissions produces estimates that are positively biased. A more representative method is suggested using the difference in cloud radiative forcing calculated with aerosol radiative effects neglected. The method also yields an aerosol radiative forcing decomposition that includes a term quantifying the impact of changes in surface albedo. The method requires only two additional diagnostic calculations: the whole-sky and clear-sky top-of-atmosphere radiative flux with aerosol radiative effects neglected.

  18. A satellite view of aerosols in the climate system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kaufman, Yoram J.; Tanre, Didier; Boucher, Olivier

    2002-01-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols are intricately linked to the climate system and to the hydrologic cycle. The net effect of aerosols is to cool the climate system by reflecting sunlight. Depending on their composition, aerosols can also absorb sunlight in the atmosphere, further cooling the surface but warming the atmosphere in the process. These effects of aerosols on the temperature profile, along with the role of aerosols as cloud condensation nuclei, impact the hydrologic cycle, through changes in cloud cover, cloud properties and precipitation. Unravelling these feedbacks is particularly difficult because aerosols take a multitude of shapes and forms, ranging from desert dust to urban pollution, and because aerosol concentrations vary strongly over time and space. To accurately study aerosol distribution and composition therefore requires continuous observations from satellites, networks of ground-based instruments and dedicated field experiments. Increases in aerosol concentration and changes in their composition, driven by industrialization and an expanding population, may adversely affect the Earth's climate and water supply.

  19. A satellite view of aerosols in the climate system.

    PubMed

    Kaufman, Yoram J; Tanré, Didier; Boucher, Olivier

    2002-09-12

    Anthropogenic aerosols are intricately linked to the climate system and to the hydrologic cycle. The net effect of aerosols is to cool the climate system by reflecting sunlight. Depending on their composition, aerosols can also absorb sunlight in the atmosphere, further cooling the surface but warming the atmosphere in the process. These effects of aerosols on the temperature profile, along with the role of aerosols as cloud condensation nuclei, impact the hydrologic cycle, through changes in cloud cover, cloud properties and precipitation. Unravelling these feedbacks is particularly difficult because aerosols take a multitude of shapes and forms, ranging from desert dust to urban pollution, and because aerosol concentrations vary strongly over time and space. To accurately study aerosol distribution and composition therefore requires continuous observations from satellites, networks of ground-based instruments and dedicated field experiments. Increases in aerosol concentration and changes in their composition, driven by industrialization and an expanding population, may adversely affect the Earth's climate and water supply.

  20. Natural and Anthropogenic Aerosols in the World's Megacities and Climate Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kafatos, M.; Singh, R.; El-Askary, H.; Qu, J.

    2005-12-01

    The world's megacities are the sites of production of a variety of aerosols and are themselves affected by natural and human-induced aerosols. In particular, sources of aerosols impacting cities include: industrial and automobile emission; sand and dust storms from, e.g., the Sahara and Gobi Deserts; as well as fire-induced aerosols. Improving the ability of various stakeholder organizations to respond effectively to high concentrations of aerosols, with special emphasis on mineral dust from dust storms; smoke from controlled burns, wild fires and agricultural burning; and anthropogenic aerosols, would be an important goal not just to understand climate forcings but also to be able to better respond to the increasing amounts of aerosols at global and regional levels. Cities and surrounding areas are affected without good estimates of the current and future conditions of the aerosols and their impact on regional and global climate. Remotely sensed (RS) NASA, NOAA and international platform data can be used to characterize the properties of aerosol clouds and special hazard events such as sand and dust storms (SDS). Aerosol analysis and prediction-model capabilities from which stakeholders can choose the tools that best match their needs and technological expertise are important. Scientists validating mesoscale and aerosol-transport models, aerosol retrievals from satellite measurements are indispensable for robust climate predictions. Here we give two examples of generic SDS cases and urban pollution and their possible impact on climate: The Sahara desert is a major source of dust aerosols dust transport is an important climatic process. The aerosols in the form of dust particles reflect the incoming solar radiation to space, thereby reducing the amount of radiation available to the ground, known as `direct' radiative forcing of aerosols. The aerosols also change the cloud albedo and microphysical properties of clouds, known as `indirect' radiative forcing of

  1. On the characteristics of aerosol indirect effect based on dynamic regimes in global climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Shipeng; Wang, Minghuai; Ghan, Steven J.; Ding, Aijun; Wang, Hailong; Zhang, Kai; Neubauer, David; Lohmann, Ulrike; Ferrachat, Sylvaine; Takeamura, Toshihiko; Gettelman, Andrew; Morrison, Hugh; Lee, Yunha; Shindell, Drew T.; Partridge, Daniel G.; Stier, Philip; Kipling, Zak; Fu, Congbin

    2016-03-01

    Aerosol-cloud interactions continue to constitute a major source of uncertainty for the estimate of climate radiative forcing. The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes, determined by monthly mean 500 hPa vertical pressure velocity (ω500), lower-tropospheric stability (LTS) and large-scale surface precipitation rate derived from several global climate models (GCMs), with a focus on liquid water path (LWP) response to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The LWP sensitivity to aerosol perturbation within dynamic regimes is found to exhibit a large spread among these GCMs. It is in regimes of strong large-scale ascent (ω500 < -25 hPa day-1) and low clouds (stratocumulus and trade wind cumulus) where the models differ most. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing is also found to differ significantly among different regimes. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing in ascending regimes is close to that in subsidence regimes, which indicates that regimes with strong large-scale ascent are as important as stratocumulus regimes in studying AIE. It is further shown that shortwave aerosol indirect forcing over regions with high monthly large-scale surface precipitation rate (> 0.1 mm day-1) contributes the most to the total aerosol indirect forcing (from 64 to nearly 100 %). Results show that the uncertainty in AIE is even larger within specific dynamical regimes compared to the uncertainty in its global mean values, pointing to the need to reduce the uncertainty in AIE in different dynamical regimes.

  2. On the characteristics of aerosol indirect effect based on dynamic regimes in global climate models

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, S.; Wang, Minghuai; Ghan, Steven J.; Ding, A.; Wang, Hailong; Zhang, Kai; Neubauer, David; Lohmann, U.; Ferrachat, S.; Takeamura, Toshihiko; Gettelman, A.; Morrison, H.; Lee, Y. H.; Shindell, D. T.; Partridge, Daniel; Stier, P.; Kipling, Z.; Fu, Congbin

    2016-03-04

    Aerosol-cloud interactions continue to constitute a major source of uncertainty for the estimate of climate radiative forcing. The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes, determined by monthly mean 500 hPa vertical pressure velocity (ω500), lower-tropospheric stability (LTS) and large-scale surface precipitation rate derived from several global climate models (GCMs), with a focus on liquid water path (LWP) response to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The LWP sensitivity to aerosol perturbation within dynamic regimes is found to exhibit a large spread among these GCMs. It is in regimes of strong large-scale ascend (ω500 < -25 hPa/d) and low clouds (stratocumulus and trade wind cumulus) where the models differ most. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing is also found to differ significantly among different regimes. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing in ascending regimes is as large as that in stratocumulus regimes, which indicates that regimes with strong large-scale ascend are as important as stratocumulus regimes in studying AIE. 42" It is further shown that shortwave aerosol indirect forcing over regions with high monthly large-scale surface precipitation rate (> 0.1 mm/d) contributes the most to the total aerosol indirect forcing (from 64% to nearly 100%). Results show that the uncertainty in AIE is even larger within specific dynamical regimes than that globally, pointing to the need to reduce the uncertainty in AIE in different dynamical regimes.

  3. A global modeling study on carbonaceous aerosol microphysical characteristics and radiative forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauer, S. E.; Menon, S.; Koch, D.; Bond, T. C.; Tsigaridis, K.

    2010-02-01

    Recently, attention has been drawn towards black carbon aerosols as a short-term climate warming mitigation candidate. However the global and regional impacts of the direct, cloud-indirect and semi-direct forcing effects are highly uncertain, due to the complex nature of aerosol evolution and the way that mixed, aged aerosols interact with clouds and radiation. A detailed aerosol microphysical scheme, MATRIX, embedded within the GISS climate model is used in this study to present a quantitative assessment of the impact of microphysical processes involving black carbon, such as emission size distributions and optical properties on aerosol cloud activation and radiative forcing. Our best estimate for net direct and indirect aerosol radiative forcing between 1750 and 2000 is -0.56 W/m2. However, the direct and indirect aerosol effects are quite sensitive to the black and organic carbon size distribution and consequential mixing state. The net radiative forcing can vary between -0.32 to -0.75 W/m2 depending on these carbonaceous particle properties at emission. Assuming that sulfates, nitrates and secondary organics form a coating around a black carbon core, rather than forming a uniformly mixed particle, changes the overall net aerosol radiative forcing from negative to positive. Taking into account internally mixed black carbon particles let us simulate correct aerosol absorption. Black carbon absorption is amplified by sulfate and nitrate coatings, but even more strongly by organic coatings. Black carbon mitigation scenarios generally showed reduced radiative forcing when sources with a large proportion of black carbon, such as diesel, are reduced; however reducing sources with a larger organic carbon component as well, such as bio-fuels, does not necessarily lead to climate benefits.

  4. Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Shindell, D. T.; Lamarque, J. -F.; Schulz, M.; Flanner, M.; Jiao, C.; Chin, M.; Young, P. J.; Lee, Y. H.; Rotstayn, L.; Mahowald, N.; Milly, G.; Faluvegi, G.; Balkanski, Y.; Collins, W. J.; Conley, A. J.; Dalsoren, S.; Easter, R.; Ghan, S.; Horowitz, L.; Liu, X.; Myhre, G.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S. T.; Skeie, R.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Takemura, T.; Voulgarakis, A.; Yoon, J. -H.; Lo, F.

    2013-01-01

    The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) examined the short-lived drivers of climate change in current climate models. Here we evaluate the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of which also participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The models reproduce present-day total aerosol optical depth (AOD) relatively well, though many are biased low. Contributions from individual aerosol components are quite different, however, and most models underestimate east Asian AOD. The models capture most 1980-2000 AOD trends well, but underpredict increases over the Yellow/Eastern Sea. They strongly underestimate absorbing AOD in many regions. We examine both the direct radiative forcing (RF) and the forcing including rapid adjustments (effective radiative forcing; ERF, including direct and indirect effects). The models’ all-sky 1850 to 2000 global mean annual average total aerosol RF is (mean; range) -0.26Wm-2-2. Screening based on model skill in capturing observed AOD yields a best estimate of -0.42Wm-2-2aerosol components in some models. Many ACCMIP and CMIP5 models appear to produce substantially smaller aerosol RF than this best estimate. Climate feedbacks contribute substantially (35 to -58 %) to modeled historical aerosol RF. The 1850 to 2000 aerosol ERF is -1.17Wm-2-2forcing than direct RF. Despite this, the multi-model spread relative to the mean is typically the same for ERF as it is for RF, or even smaller, over areas with substantial forcing. The largest 1850 to 2000 negative aerosol RF and ERF values are over and near Europe, south and east Asia and North America. ERF, however, is positive over the Sahara, the Karakoram, high Southern latitudes and especially the Arctic. Global

  5. Aerosols and clouds in chemical transport models and climate models.

    SciTech Connect

    Lohmann,U.; Schwartz, S. E.

    2008-03-02

    Clouds exert major influences on both shortwave and longwave radiation as well as on the hydrological cycle. Accurate representation of clouds in climate models is a major unsolved problem because of high sensitivity of radiation and hydrology to cloud properties and processes, incomplete understanding of these processes, and the wide range of length scales over which these processes occur. Small changes in the amount, altitude, physical thickness, and/or microphysical properties of clouds due to human influences can exert changes in Earth's radiation budget that are comparable to the radiative forcing by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, thus either partly offsetting or enhancing the warming due to these gases. Because clouds form on aerosol particles, changes in the amount and/or composition of aerosols affect clouds in a variety of ways. The forcing of the radiation balance due to aerosol-cloud interactions (indirect aerosol effect) has large uncertainties because a variety of important processes are not well understood precluding their accurate representation in models.

  6. Time Series of Aerosol Column Optical Depth at the Barrow, Alaska, ARM Climate Research Facility for 2008 Fourth Quarter 2009 ARM and Climate Change Prediction Program Metric Report

    SciTech Connect

    C Flynn; AS Koontz; JH Mather

    2009-09-01

    The uncertainties in current estimates of anthropogenic radiative forcing are dominated by the effects of aerosols, both in relation to the direct absorption and scattering of radiation by aerosols and also with respect to aerosol-related changes in cloud formation, longevity, and microphysics (See Figure 1; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Assessment Report 4, 2008). Moreover, the Arctic region in particular is especially sensitive to changes in climate with the magnitude of temperature changes (both observed and predicted) being several times larger than global averages (Kaufman et al. 2009). Recent studies confirm that aerosol-cloud interactions in the arctic generate climatologically significant radiative effects equivalent in magnitude to that of green house gases (Lubin and Vogelmann 2006, 2007). The aerosol optical depth is the most immediate representation of the aerosol direct effect and is also important for consideration of aerosol-cloud interactions, and thus this quantity is essential for studies of aerosol radiative forcing.

  7. Climate effects of anthropogenic aerosols over East Asia based on modeling study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukai, Makiko

    The increasing emission of anthropogenic aerosols causes serious air pollution episodes and various effects on the climate by the aerosols interacting with the radiation budget by directly absorbing and scattering the solar radiation, and by them indirectly modifying the optical properties and lifetimes of clouds. In East Asia anthropogenic aerosol concentrations are rapidly increasing. It is therefore necessary to evaluate the sensitivity of anthropogenic aerosols upon the radiative forcing in this region. For this purpose we utilize an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with an aerosol transport and radiation model and an ocean mixed-layer model. The model in this study was a three-dimensional aerosol transport-radiation model (SPRINTARS), driven by the AGCM developed by CCSR (Center for Climate System Research), NIES (National Institute for Environmental Studies), and FRCGC (Frontier Research Center for Global Change). This model incorporates sulfate, carbonaceous, sea salt, and mineral dust aerosols, the first three of which are assumed to acts as cloud condensation nuclei that generate cloud droplets whose number increases with the number of nuclei. We assumed sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol from fuel burning for anthropogenic aerosol. And the model simulations of equilibrium experiments were performed to investigate the impact of anthropogenic aerosols based on present-day emission data and the preindustrial-era emission data. Our simulation results showed that copious anthropogenic aerosol loading causes significant decrease in the surface downward shortwave radiation flux (SDSWRF), which indicates that a direct effect of aerosols has the greatest influence on the surface radiation. It is found from our model simulations that low-level clouds increase but convective clouds decrease due to reduced convective activity caused by surface cooling when anthropogenic aerosol increases. It was also found that the contributions of aerosols to the radiation

  8. Direct radiative forcing from black carbon aerosols over urban environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madhavi Latha, K.; Badarinath, K. V. S.

    There is growing evidence that the earth's climate is changing and will likely continue to change in the future. It is still debated whether these changes are due to natural variability of the climate system or a result of increases in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Black carbon (BC) has become the subject of interest for a variety of reasons. BC aerosol may cause environmental as well as harmful health effects in densely inhabited regions. BC is a strong absorber of radiation in the visible and near-infrared part of the spectrum, where most of the solar energy is distributed. Black carbon is emitted into the atmosphere as a byproduct of all combustion processes viz., vegetation burning, industrial effluents and motor vehicle exhausts etc. In this paper, we present results from our measurements on black carbon aerosols, total aerosol mass concentration and aerosol optical depth over an urban environment namely Hyderabad during January to May, 2003. Diurnal variations of BC suggests that high BC concentrations observed during 6:00-9:00hrs and 19:00-23:00hrs. Weekday variations of BC suggest that the day average BC concentrations increases gradually from Monday to Wednesday and gradually decreased from Thursday to Sunday. Analysis of traffic density along with meteorological parameters suggests that the primary determinant for BC concentration levels and patterns is traffic density. Seasonal variations of BC suggest that the BC concentrations are high during dry season compared to rainy season due to scavenging effects of BC during rainy season. Fraction of BC to total mass concentration has been observed to be 7% during January to May. BC showed positive correlation with total mass concentration and aerosol optical depth at 500nm. Radiative transfer calculations suggests that during January to May, diurnal averaged aerosol forcing at the surface calculated to be -33Wm -2 and at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) it is observed to +9 Wm -2. The

  9. Grid-scale Indirect Radiative Forcing of Climate due to aerosols over the northern hemisphere simulated by the integrated WRF-CMAQ model: Preliminary results

    EPA Science Inventory

    In this study, indirect aerosol effects on grid-scale clouds were implemented in the integrated WRF3.3-CMAQ5.0 modeling system by including parameterizations for both cloud droplet and ice number concentrations calculated from the CMAQ-predicted aerosol particles. The resulting c...

  10. Climate Forcings and Climate Sensitivities Diagnosed from Coupled Climate Model Integrations

    SciTech Connect

    Forster, P M A F; Taylor, K E

    2006-07-25

    A simple technique is proposed for calculating global mean climate forcing from transient integrations of coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). This 'climate forcing' differs from the conventionally defined radiative forcing as it includes semi-direct effects that account for certain short timescale responses in the troposphere. Firstly, we calculate a climate feedback term from reported values of 2 x CO{sub 2} radiative forcing and surface temperature time series from 70-year simulations by twenty AOGCMs. In these simulations carbon dioxide is increased by 1%/year. The derived climate feedback agrees well with values that we diagnose from equilibrium climate change experiments of slab-ocean versions of the same models. These climate feedback terms are associated with the fast, quasi-linear response of lapse rate, clouds, water vapor and albedo to global surface temperature changes. The importance of the feedbacks is gauged by their impact on the radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere. We find partial compensation between longwave and shortwave feedback terms that lessens the inter-model differences in the equilibrium climate sensitivity. There is also some indication that the AOGCMs overestimate the strength of the positive longwave feedback. These feedback terms are then used to infer the shortwave and longwave time series of climate forcing in 20th and 21st Century simulations in the AOGCMs. We validate the technique using conventionally calculated forcing time series from four AOGCMs. In these AOGCMs the shortwave and longwave climate forcings we diagnose agree with the conventional forcing time series within {approx}10%. The shortwave forcing time series exhibit order of magnitude variations between the AOGCMs, differences likely related to how both natural forcings and/or anthropogenic aerosol effects are included. There are also factor of two differences in the longwave climate forcing time series, which may indicate problems

  11. The persistently variable "background" stratospheric aerosol layer and global climate change.

    PubMed

    Solomon, S; Daniel, J S; Neely, R R; Vernier, J-P; Dutton, E G; Thomason, L W

    2011-08-12

    Recent measurements demonstrate that the "background" stratospheric aerosol layer is persistently variable rather than constant, even in the absence of major volcanic eruptions. Several independent data sets show that stratospheric aerosols have increased in abundance since 2000. Near-global satellite aerosol data imply a negative radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosol changes over this period of about -0.1 watt per square meter, reducing the recent global warming that would otherwise have occurred. Observations from earlier periods are limited but suggest an additional negative radiative forcing of about -0.1 watt per square meter from 1960 to 1990. Climate model projections neglecting these changes would continue to overestimate the radiative forcing and global warming in coming decades if these aerosols remain present at current values or increase.

  12. Aerosol climate time series from ESA Aerosol_cci (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holzer-Popp, T.

    2013-12-01

    Within the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) the Aerosol_cci project (mid 2010 - mid 2013, phase 2 proposed 2014-2016) has conducted intensive work to improve algorithms for the retrieval of aerosol information from European sensors AATSR (3 algorithms), PARASOL, MERIS (3 algorithms), synergetic AATSR/SCIAMACHY, OMI and GOMOS. Whereas OMI and GOMOS were used to derive absorbing aerosol index and stratospheric extinction profiles, respectively, Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and Angstrom coefficient were retrieved from the other sensors. Global datasets for 2008 were produced and validated versus independent ground-based data and other satellite data sets (MODIS, MISR). An additional 17-year dataset is currently generated using ATSR-2/AATSR data. During the three years of the project, intensive collaborative efforts were made to improve the retrieval algorithms focusing on the most critical modules. The team agreed on the use of a common definition for the aerosol optical properties. Cloud masking was evaluated, but a rigorous analysis with a pre-scribed cloud mask did not lead to improvement for all algorithms. Better results were obtained using a post-processing step in which sudden transitions, indicative of possible occurrence of cloud contamination, were removed. Surface parameterization, which is most critical for the nadir only algorithms (MERIS and synergetic AATSR / SCIAMACHY) was studied to a limited extent. The retrieval results for AOD, Ångström exponent (AE) and uncertainties were evaluated by comparison with data from AERONET (and a limited amount of MAN) sun photometer and with satellite data available from MODIS and MISR. Both level2 and level3 (gridded daily) datasets were validated. Several validation metrics were used (standard statistical quantities such as bias, rmse, Pearson correlation, linear regression, as well as scoring approaches to quantitatively evaluate the spatial and temporal correlations against AERONET), and in some cases

  13. Reconstructing Volcanic Forcing of Climate: Past, Present and Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toohey, M.; Timmreck, C.; Sigl, M.

    2015-12-01

    Radiative forcing resulting from major volcanic eruptions has been a dominant driver of climate variability during Earth's history. Including volcanic forcing in climate model simulations is therefore essential to recreate past climate variability, and provides the opportunity to test the ability of models to respond accurately to external forcing. Ice cores provide estimates of the volcanic sulfate loadings from past eruptions, from which radiative forcing can be reconstructed, with associated uncertainties. Using prior reconstructions, climate models have reproduced the gross features of global mean temperature variability reconstructed from climate proxies, although some significant differences between model results and reconstructions remain. There is much less confidence in the accuracy of the dynamical responses to volcanic forcing produced by climate models, and thus the regional aspects of post-volcanic climate anomalies are much more uncertain—a result which mirrors uncertainties in the dynamical responses to future climate change. Improvements in model's response to volcanic forcing may be possible through improving the accuracy of the forcing data. Recent advances on multiple fronts have motivated the development of a next-generation volcanic forcing timeseries for use in climate models, based on (1) improved dating and precision of ice core records, (2) better understanding of the atmospheric transport and microphysical evolution of volcanic aerosol, including its size distribution, and (3) improved representations of the spatiotemporal structure of volcanic radiative forcing. A new volcanic forcing data set, covering the past 2500 years, will be introduced and compared with prior reconstructions. Preliminary results of climate model simulations using the new forcing will also be shown, and current and future applications of the forcing set discussed.

  14. MODIS Observation of Aerosols over Southern Africa During SAFARI 2000: Data, Validation, and Estimation of Aerosol Radiative Forcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ichoku, Charles; Kaufman, Yoram; Remer, Lorraine; Chu, D. Allen; Mattoo, Shana; Tanre, Didier; Levy, Robert; Li, Rong-Rong; Kleidman, Richard; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Aerosol properties, including optical thickness and size parameters, are retrieved operationally from the MODIS sensor onboard the Terra satellite launched on 18 December 1999. The predominant aerosol type over the Southern African region is smoke, which is generated from biomass burning on land and transported over the southern Atlantic Ocean. The SAFARI-2000 period experienced smoke aerosol emissions from the regular biomass burning activities as well as from the prescribed burns administered on the auspices of the experiment. The MODIS Aerosol Science Team (MAST) formulates and implements strategies for the retrieval of aerosol products from MODIS, as well as for validating and analyzing them in order to estimate aerosol effects in the radiative forcing of climate as accurately as possible. These activities are carried out not only from a global perspective, but also with a focus on specific regions identified as having interesting characteristics, such as the biomass burning phenomenon in southern Africa and the associated smoke aerosol, particulate, and trace gas emissions. Indeed, the SAFARI-2000 aerosol measurements from the ground and from aircraft, along with MODIS, provide excellent data sources for a more intensive validation and a closer study of the aerosol characteristics over Southern Africa. The SAFARI-2000 ground-based measurements of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from both the automatic Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and handheld Sun photometers have been used to validate MODIS retrievals, based on a sophisticated spatio-temporal technique. The average global monthly distribution of aerosol from MODIS has been combined with other data to calculate the southern African aerosol daily averaged (24 hr) radiative forcing over the ocean for September 2000. It is estimated that on the average, for cloud free conditions over an area of 9 million square kin, this predominantly smoke aerosol exerts a forcing of -30 W/square m C lose to the terrestrial

  15. Possible Influence of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Cirrus Clouds and Anthropogenic Forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Penner, Joyce E.; Chen, Yang; Wang, Minghuai; Liu, Xiaohong

    2009-02-03

    Cirrus clouds have a net warming effect on the atmosphere and cover about 30% of the Earth’s area. Aerosol particles initiate ice formation in the upper troposphere through modes of action that include homogeneous freezing of solution droplets, heterogeneous nucleation on solid particles immersed in a solution, and deposition nucleation of vapor onto solid particles. Here, we examine the possible change in ice number concentration from anthropogenic soot originating from surface sources of fossil fuel and biomass burning, from anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, and from aircraft that deposit their aerosols directly in the upper troposphere. We find that fossil fuel and biomass burning soot aerosols exert a radiative forcing of -0.68 to 0.01 Wm-2 while anthropogenic sulfate aerosols exert a forcing of -0.01 to 0.18 Wm-2. Our calculations show that the sign of the forcing by aircraft soot depends on the model configuration and can be both positive or negative, ranging from -0.16 to 0.02 Wm-2. The magnitude of the forcing in cirrus clouds can be comparable to the forcing exerted by anthropogenic aerosols on warm clouds, but this forcing has not been included in past assessments of the total anthropogenic radiative forcing of climate.

  16. Beyond MODIS: Developing an aerosol climate data record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levy, R. C.; Mattoo, S.; Munchak, L. A.; Patadia, F.; Laszlo, I.; Holz, R.

    2013-12-01

    As defined by the National Research Council, a climate data record (CDR) is a time series of measurements of sufficient length, consistency, and continuity to determine climate variability and change. As one of our most pressing research questions concerns changes in global direct aerosol radiative forcing (DARF), creating an aerosol CDR is of high importance. To reduce our uncertainties in DARF, we need uncertainty in global aerosol optical depth (AOD) reduced to ×0.02 or better, or about 10% of global mean AOD (~0.15-0.20). To quantify aerosol trends with significance, we also need a stable time series at least 20-30 years. By this Fall-2013 AGU meeting, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) has been flying on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites for 14 years and 11.5 years, respectively. During this time, we have fine-tuned the aerosol retrieval algorithms and data processing protocols, resulting in a well characterized product of aerosol optical depth (AOD). MODIS AOD has been extensively compared to ground-based sunphotometer data, showing per-retrieval expected error (EE) of ×(0.03 + 5%) over ocean, and has been generally adopted as a robust and stable environmental data record (EDR). With the 2011 launch of the Visible and Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) aboard Suomi-NPP, we have begun a new aerosol time series. The VIIRS AOD product has stabilized to the point where, compared to ground-based AERONET sunphotometer, the VIIRS AOD is within similar EE envelope as MODIS. Thus, if VIIRS continues to perform as expected, it too can provide a robust and stable aerosol EDR. What will it take to stitch MODIS and VIIRS into a robust aerosol CDR? Based on the recent experience of MODIS 'Collection 6' development, there are many details of aerosol retrieval that each lead to ×0.01 uncertainties in global AOD. These include 'radiative transfer' assumptions such as calculations for gas absorption and sea-level Rayleigh optical depth, 'decision

  17. Assessing the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific storm track using a multiscale global climate model.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan H; Molina, Mario J

    2014-05-13

    Atmospheric aerosols affect weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track, using a multiscale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and preindustrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by -2.5 and +1.3 W m(-2), respectively, by emission changes from preindustrial to present day, and an increased cloud top height indicates invigorated midlatitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides, for the first time to the authors' knowledge, a global perspective of the effects of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multiscale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on a global scale.

  18. Assessing the Effects of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Pacific Storm Track Using a Multiscale Global Climate Model

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J.; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan; Molina, Mario J.

    2014-05-13

    Atmospheric aerosols impact weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track using a multi-scale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and pre-industrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by - 2.5 and + 1.3 W m-2, respectively, by emission changes from pre-industrial to present day, and an increased cloud-top height indicates invigorated mid-latitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides for the first time a global perspective of the impacts of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multi-scale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on the global scale.

  19. The contribution of China's emissions to global climate forcing.

    PubMed

    Li, Bengang; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Hauglustaine, Didier; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Chen, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Laurent Zhaoxin; Li, Yue; Liu, Hongyan; Liu, Junfeng; Peng, Shushi; Shen, Zehao; Sun, Zhenzhong; Wang, Rong; Wang, Tao; Yin, Guodong; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhou, Feng

    2016-03-17

    Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on "common but differentiated responsibilities" reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development, accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols, but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry-climate model and a chemistry and transport model to quantify China's present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% ± 4% of the current global radiative forcing. China's relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% ± 2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% ± 6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China's strongest contributions are 0.16 ± 0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, -0.11 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 ± 0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China's eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years: a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon.

  20. Mixing state of aerosols over the Indo-Gangetic Plain: Radiative forcing and heating rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Srivastava, R.; Ramachandran, S.

    2012-12-01

    Aerosols are a major atmospheric variable which perturb the Earth-atmosphere radiation balance by absorbing and scattering the solar and terrestrial radiation. Aerosols are produced by natural and anthropogenic processes. The presence of different types of aerosol over a location and aerosols transported from long-range can give rise to different mixing states because of aging and interaction among the different aerosol species. Knowledge of the mixing state of aerosols is important for an accurate assessment of aerosols in climate forcing, as assumptions regarding the mixing state of aerosol and its effect on optical properties can give rise to uncertainties in modeling their direct and indirect effects [1]. Seasonal variations in mixing states of aerosols over an urban (Kanpur) and a rural location (Gandhi College) in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) are determined using the measured and modeled aerosol optical properties, and the impact of aerosol mixing state on aerosol radiative forcing are investigated. IGP is one of the most populated and polluted river basins in the world, rich in fertile lands and agricultural production. Kanpur is an urban, industrial and densely populated city, and has several large/small scale industries and vehicles, while Gandhi College in IGP is a rural village, located southeast of Kanpur. Aerosol optical properties obtained from Aerosol Robotic Network sun/sky radiometers [2] over these two environmentally distinct locations in Indo-Gangetic Plain are used in the study, along with aerosol vertical profiles obtained from CALIPSO (Cloud- Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) lidar observations. Probable mixing state of aerosols is determined utilizing the aerosol optical properties viz., aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo and asymmetry parameter. The coated-sphere Mie calculation requires the refractive index of core and shell species, and the radius of core and shell particles. Core to shell radius

  1. Regional and seasonal radiative forcing by perturbations to aerosol and ozone precursor emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bellouin, Nicolas; Baker, Laura; Hodnebrog, Øivind; Olivié, Dirk; Cherian, Ribu; Macintosh, Claire; Samset, Bjørn; Esteve, Anna; Aamaas, Borgar; Quaas, Johannes; Myhre, Gunnar

    2016-11-01

    Predictions of temperature and precipitation responses to changes in the anthropogenic emissions of climate forcers require the quantification of the radiative forcing exerted by those changes. This task is particularly difficult for near-term climate forcers like aerosols, methane, and ozone precursors because their short atmospheric lifetimes cause regionally and temporally inhomogeneous radiative forcings. This study quantifies specific radiative forcing, defined as the radiative forcing per unit change in mass emitted, for eight near-term climate forcers as a function of their source regions and the season of emission by using dedicated simulations by four general circulation and chemistry-transport models. Although differences in the representation of atmospheric chemistry and radiative processes in different models impede the creation of a uniform dataset, four distinct findings can be highlighted. Firstly, specific radiative forcing for sulfur dioxide and organic carbon are stronger when aerosol-cloud interactions are taken into account. Secondly, there is a lack of agreement on the sign of the specific radiative forcing of volatile organic compound perturbations, suggesting they are better avoided in climate mitigation strategies. Thirdly, the strong seasonalities of the specific radiative forcing of most forcers allow strategies to minimise positive radiative forcing based on the timing of emissions. Finally, European and shipping emissions exert stronger aerosol specific radiative forcings compared to East Asia where the baseline is more polluted. This study can therefore form the basis for further refining climate mitigation options based on regional and seasonal controls on emissions. For example, reducing summertime emissions of black carbon and wintertime emissions of sulfur dioxide in the more polluted regions is a possible way to improve air quality without weakening the negative radiative forcing of aerosols.

  2. Sources, Transport, and Climate Impacts of Biomass Burning Aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chin, Mian

    2010-01-01

    In this presentation, I will first talk about fundamentals of modeling of biomass burning emissions of aerosols, then show the results of GOCART model simulated biomass burning aerosols. I will compare the model results with observations of satellite and ground-based network in terms of total aerosol optical depth, aerosol absorption optical depth, and vertical distributions. Finally the long-range transport of biomass burning aerosols and the climate effects will be addressed. I will also discuss the uncertainties associated with modeling and observations of biomass burning aerosols

  3. Role of Climate Change in Global Predictions of Future Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liao, Hong; Chen, Wei-Ting; Seinfeld, John H.

    2006-01-01

    A unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model II is applied to simulate an equilibrium CO2-forced climate in the year 2100 to examine the effects of climate change on global distributions of tropospheric ozone and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust aerosols. The year 2100 CO2 concentration as well as the anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors and aerosols/aerosol precursors are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2. Year 2100 global O3 and aerosol burdens predicted with changes in both climate and emissions are generally 5-20% lower than those simulated with changes in emissions alone; as exceptions, the nitrate burden is 38% lower, and the secondary organic aerosol burden is 17% higher. Although the CO2-driven climate change alone is predicted to reduce the global O3 concentrations over or near populated and biomass burning areas because of slower transport, enhanced biogenic hydrocarbon emissions, decomposition of peroxyacetyl nitrate at higher temperatures, and the increase of O3 production by increased water vapor at high NOx levels. The warmer climate influences aerosol burdens by increasing aerosol wet deposition, altering climate-sensitive emissions, and shifting aerosol thermodynamic equilibrium. Climate change affects the estimates of the year 2100 direct radiative forcing as a result of the climate-induced changes in burdens and different climatological conditions; with full gas-aerosol coupling and accounting for ozone and direct radiative forcings by the O2, sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, and organic carbon are predicted to be +0.93, -0.72, -1.0, +1.26, and -0.56 W m(exp -2), respectively, using present-day climate and year 2100 emissions, while they are predicted to be +0.76, -0.72, 0.74, +0.97, and -0.58 W m(exp -2

  4. Radiative Forcing in the ACCMIP Historical and Future Climate Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shindell, Drew Todd; Lamarque, J.-F.; Schulz, M.; Flanner, M.; Jiao, C.; Chin, M.; Young, P. J.; Lee, Y. H.; Rotstayn, L.; Mahowald, N.; Milly, G.; Faluvegi, G.; Balkanski, Y.; Collins, W. J.; Conley, A. J.; Dalsoren, S.; Easter, R.; Ghan, S.; Horowitz, L.; Liu, X.; Myhre, G.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S. T.; Skeie, R.; Voulgarakis, A.

    2013-01-01

    A primary goal of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model IntercomparisonProject (ACCMIP) was to characterize the short-lived drivers of preindustrial to 2100climate change in the current generation of climate models. Here we evaluate historicaland 5 future radiative forcing in the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of whichalso participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5).The models generally reproduce present-day climatological total aerosol opticaldepth (AOD) relatively well. components to this total, however, and most appear to underestimate AOD over East10 Asia. The models generally capture 1980-2000 AOD trends fairly well, though theyunderpredict AOD increases over the YellowEastern Sea. They appear to strongly underestimate absorbing AOD, especially in East Asia, South and Southeast Asia, SouthAmerica and Southern Hemisphere Africa.We examined both the conventional direct radiative forcing at the tropopause (RF) and the forcing including rapid adjustments (adjusted forcing AF, including direct andindirect effects). The models calculated all aerosol all-sky 1850 to 2000 global meanannual average RF ranges from 0.06 to 0.49 W m(sup -2), with a mean of 0.26 W m(sup -2) and a median of 0.27 W m(sup -2. Adjusting for missing aerosol components in some modelsbrings the range to 0.12 to 0.62W m(sup -2), with a mean of 0.39W m(sup -2). Screen20ing the models based on their ability to capture spatial patterns and magnitudes ofAOD and AOD trends yields a quality-controlled mean of 0.42W m(sup -2) and range of0.33 to 0.50 W m(sup -2) (accounting for missing components). The CMIP5 subset of ACCMIPmodels spans 0.06 to 0.49W m(sup -2), suggesting some CMIP5 simulations likelyhave too little aerosol RF. A substantial, but not well quantified, contribution to histori25cal aerosol RF may come from climate feedbacks (35 to 58). The mean aerosol AF during this period is 1.12W m(sup -2) (median value 1.16W m(sup -2), range 0.72 to1.44W m

  5. Representation and evaluation of aerosol mixing state in a climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauer, S. E.; Prather, K. A.; Ault, A. P.

    2011-12-01

    Aerosol particles in the atmosphere are composed out of multiple chemical species. The aerosol mixing state is an important aerosol property that will determine the interaction of aerosols with the climate system via radiative forcings and cloud activation. Through the introduction of aerosol microphysics into climate models, aerosol mixing state is by now taken into account to a certain extend in climate models, and evaluation of mixing state is the next challenge. Here we use data from the Aerosol Time of Flight Mass Spectrometer (ATOFMS) and compare the results to the GISS-modelE-MATRIX model, a global climate model including a detailed aerosol micro-physical scheme. We use data from various field campaigns probing, urban, rural and maritime air masses and compare those to climatological and nudged simulations for the years 2005 to 2009. ATOFMS provides information about the size distributions of several mixing state classes, including the chemical components of black and organic carbon, sulfates, dust and salts. MATRIX simulates 16 aerosol populations, which definitions are based on mixing state. We have grouped ATOFMS and MATRIX data into similar mixing state classes and compare the size resolved number concentrations against each other. As a first result we find that climatological simulations are rather difficult to evaluate with field data, and that nudged simulations give a much better agreement. However this is not just caused by the better fit of natural - meteorological driven - aerosol components, but also due to the interaction between meteorology and aerosol formation. The model seems to get the right amount of mixing state of black carbon material with sulfate and organic components, but seems to always overestimate the fraction of black carbon that is externally mixed. In order to understand this bias between model and the ATOFMS data, we will look into microphysical processes near emission sources and investigate the climate relevance of these sub

  6. Hydrological sensitivity to greenhouse gases and aerosols in a global climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    KvalevâG, Maria Malene; Samset, BjøRn H.; Myhre, Gunnar

    2013-04-01

    Changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols alter the atmospheric energy budget on different time scales and at different levels in the atmosphere. We study the relationship between global mean precipitation changes, radiative forcing, and surface temperature change since preindustrial times caused by several climate change components (CO2, CH4, sulphate and black carbon (BC) aerosols, and solar forcing) using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model (CESM1.03). We find a fast response in precipitation due to atmospheric instability that correlates with radiative forcing associated with atmospheric absorption and a slower response caused by changes in surface temperature which correlates with radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere. In general, global climate models show large differences in climate response to global warming, but here we find a strong relationship between global mean radiative forcing and global mean precipitation changes that is very consistent with other models, indicating that precipitation changes from a particular forcing mechanism are more robust than previously expected. In addition, we look at the precipitation response and relate it to changes in lifetime of atmospheric water vapor (τ). BC aerosols have a significantly larger impact on changes in τ related to surface temperature compared to greenhouse gases, sulphate aerosols, and solar forcing and are the dominating forcing mechanism affecting fast precipitation in this quantity.

  7. Atmospheric Teleconnection over Eurasia Induced by Aerosol Radiative Forcing during Boreal Spring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Maeng-Ki; Lau, William K. M.; Chin, Mian; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Sud, Y. C.; Walker, Greg K.

    2006-01-01

    The direct effects of aerosols on global and regional climate during boreal spring are investigated based on numerical simulations with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM) with Microphyics of Clouds with the Relaxed Arakawa Schubert Scheme (McRAS), using aerosol forcing functions derived from the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). The authors find that anomalous atmospheric heat sources induced by absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) excite a planetary-scale teleconnection pattern in sea level pressure, temperature, and geopotential height spanning North Africa through Eurasia to the North Pacific. Surface cooling due to direct effects of aerosols is found in the vicinity and downstream of the aerosol source regions, that is, South Asia, East Asia, and northern and western Africa. Significant atmospheric heating is found in regions with large loading of dust (over northern Africa and the Middle East) and black carbon (over Southeast Asia). Paradoxically, the most pronounced feature in aerosol-induced surface temperature is an east west dipole anomaly with strong cooling over the Caspian Sea and warming over central and northeastern Asia, where aerosol concentrations are low. Analyses of circulation anomalies show that the dipole anomaly is a part of an atmospheric teleconnection pattern driven by atmospheric heating anomalies induced by absorbing aerosols in the source regions, but the influence was conveyed globally through barotropic energy dispersion and sustained by feedback processes associated with the regional circulations. The surface temperature signature associated with the aerosol-induced teleconnection bears striking resemblance to the spatial pattern of observed long-term trend in surface temperature over Eurasia. Additionally, the boreal spring wave train pattern is similar to that reported by Fukutomi et al. associated with the boreal summer

  8. Aerosol forcing of extreme summer drought over North China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Lixia; Wu, Peili; Zhou, Tianjun

    2017-03-01

    The frequency of extreme summer drought has been increasing in North China during the past sixty years, which has caused serious water shortages. It remains unclear whether anthropogenic forcing has contributed to the increasing extreme droughts. Using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis data and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations with various combinations of historical forcings, the authors investigated the driving mechanism behind the observed changes. Metrological drought is usually measured by precipitation anomalies, which show lower fidelity in current climate models compared to large-scale circulation patterns. Based on NCEP/NCAR re-analysis, a linear relationship is firstly established between the weakest regional average 850 hPa southerly winds and extreme summer drought. This meridional winds index (MWI) is then used as a proxy for attribution of extreme North China drought using CMIP5 outputs. Examination of the CMIP5 simulations reveals that the probability of the extreme summer droughts with the first percentile of MWI for 1850–2004 under anthropogenic forcing has increased by 100%, on average, relative to a pre-industrial control run. The more frequent occurrence of extremely weak MWIs or drought over North China is ascribed from weakened climate and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation due to the direct cooling effect from increased aerosol.

  9. Atmospheric impact of the 1783-1784 Laki Eruption: Part II Climatic effect of sulphate aerosol

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Highwood, E. J.; Stevenson, D. S.

    2003-03-01

    The long 1783-1784 eruption of Laki, in southern Iceland, was one of the first eruptions to have been linked to an observed climate anomaly, having been held responsible for cold temperatures over much of the Northern Hemisphere in the period 1783-1785. Results from the first climate model simulation of the impact of the 1783-1784 fissure eruption are presented. Using sulphate aerosol fields produced in a companion chemical transport model simulation by Stevenson et al. (2003), the radiative forcing and climate response due to the aerosol are calculated here using the Reading Intermediate General Circulation Model (IGCM). The peak Northern Hemisphere mean direct radiative forcing is -5.5 Wm-2 in August 1783. The radiative forcing dies away quickly as the emissions from the volcano decrease; however, a small forcing remains over the Mediterranean until March 1784. There is little forcing in the Southern Hemisphere. There is shown to be an uncertainty of at least 50% in the direct radiative forcing due to assumptions concerning relative humidity and the sophistication of the radiative transfer code used. The indirect effects of the Laki aerosol are potentially large but essentially unquantifiable at the present time. In the IGCM at least, the aerosol from the eruption produces a climate response that is spatially very variable. The magnitude of the Northern Hemisphere annual mean anomaly for 1783 is -0.21 K, statistically significant at the 95% level and in reasonable agreement with the available observations.

  10. A regional climate study of aerosol impacts on Indian monsoon and precipitations over the Himalayas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solmon, F.; Von Hardenberg, J.; Nair, V.; Palazzi, E.

    2013-12-01

    In the context of the PAPRIKA program we are studying the potential effects of aerosol particle on Indian climate and Himalayan region. Using the RegCM4 regional climate model we performed some experiments including on-line representation of natural and anthropogenic aerosols for present day and future conditions over the CORDEX-India domain. Dynamical boundary forcing is taken for ERAI-Interim over the period 2000-2010, and chemical boundary-conditions are prescribed as a monthly climatology form an ECEARTH/CAM simulation for present day. Different set of anthropogenic emissions (SO2, carbonaceous aerosols) are considered (IPCC RCP4.5 and REAS) whereas natural aerosol (dust and sea-salt) are calculated on line. In order to account for aerosol radiative feedback on surface energy budget over the oceans, we also implemented a 'q-flux' slab ocean model as an alternative to pure SST forcing. After a step of validation of aerosol simulation against observations, we investigate through a series of experiments the dynamical feedback of direct radiative effect of aerosol over this domain, focusing specifically on Indian Monsoon and precipitation over the Himalayas. We discriminate the effect of anthropogenic vs. natural aerosol while outlining the main mechanism of the regional climate response, as well as the sensitivity to emissions inventory. Our results will be discussed notably against previous GCM based studies. Finally we will possibly discuss future projections based on RCP4.5 EC-EARTH forcing and including aerosol effects, as well as the potential radiative effects of absorbing aerosol deposition on the Himalayan snow covers.

  11. The role of aerosols in cloud drop parameterizations and its applications in global climate models

    SciTech Connect

    Chuang, C.C.; Penner, J.E.

    1996-04-01

    The characteristics of the cloud drop size distribution near cloud base are initially determined by aerosols that serve as cloud condensation nuclei and the updraft velocity. We have developed parameterizations relating cloud drop number concentration to aerosol number and sulfate mass concentrations and used them in a coupled global aerosol/general circulation model (GCM) to estimate the indirect aerosol forcing. The global aerosol model made use of our detailed emissions inventories for the amount of particulate matter from biomass burning sources and from fossil fuel sources as well as emissions inventories of the gas-phase anthropogenic SO{sub 2}. This work is aimed at validating the coupled model with the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program measurements and assessing the possible magnitude of the aerosol-induced cloud effects on climate.

  12. Sensitivity analysis of aerosol direct radiative forcing in ultraviolet visible wavelengths and consequences for the heat budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hatzianastassiou, N.; Katsoulis, B.; Vardavas, I.

    2004-09-01

    A series of sensitivity studies were performed with a spectral radiative transfer model using aerosol data from the Global Aerosol Data Set (GADS, data available at aerosol/aerosol.htm">http://www.meteo.physik.uni-muenchen.de/strahlung/aerosol/aerosol.htm) in order to investigate and quantify the relative role of key climatic parameters on clear-sky ultraviolet visible direct aerosol radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), within the atmosphere and at the Earth's surface. The model results show that relative humidity and aerosol single-scattering albedo are the most important climatic parameters that determine aerosol forcing at the TOA and at the Earth's surface and atmosphere, respectively. Relative humidity exerts a non-linear positive radiative effect, i.e. increasing humidity amplifies the magnitude of the forcing in the atmosphere and at the surface. Our model sensitivity studies show that increasing relative humidity by 10%, in relative terms, increases the aerosol forcing by factors of 1.42 at the TOA, 1.02 in the atmosphere and 1.17 at the surface. An increase in aerosol single-scattering albedo by 10%, in relative terms, increased the aerosol forcing at the TOA by 1.29, while it decreased the forcing in the atmosphere and at the surface by factors of 0.2 and 0.69, respectively. Our results show that an increase in relative humidity enhances the planetary cooling effect of aerosols (increased reflection of solar radiation to space) over oceans and low-albedo land areas, whilst over polar regions and highly reflecting land surfaces the warming effect of aerosols changes to a cooling effect. Thus, global warming and an associated increase in relative humidity would lead to enhanced aerosol cooling worldwide. The sensitivity results also demonstrate that an increase in surface albedo due to

  13. Towards a Global Aerosol Climatology: Preliminary Trends in Tropospheric Aerosol Amounts and Corresponding Impact on Radiative Forcing between 1950 and 1990

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tegen, Ina; Koch, Dorothy; Lacis, Andrew A.; Sato, Makiko

    1999-01-01

    A global aerosol climatology is needed in the study of decadal temperature change due to natural and anthropogenic forcing of global climate change. A preliminary aerosol climatology has been developed from global transport models for a mixture of sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols from fossil fuel burning, including also contributions from other major aerosol types such as soil dust and sea salt. The aerosol distributions change for the period of 1950 to 1990 due to changes in emissions of SO2 and carbon particles from fossil fuel burning. The optical thickness of fossil fuel derived aerosols increased by nearly a factor of 3 during this period, with particularly strong increase in eastern Asia over the whole time period. In countries where environmental laws came into effect since the early 1980s (e.g. US and western Europe), emissions and consequently aerosol optical thicknesses did not increase considerably after 1980, resulting in a shift in the global distribution pattern over this period. In addition to the optical thickness, aerosol single scattering albedos may have changed during this period due to different trends in absorbing black carbon and reflecting sulfate aerosols. However, due to the uncertainties in the emission trends, this change cannot be determined with any confidence. Radiative forcing of this aerosol distribution is calculated for several scenarios, resulting in a wide range of uncertainties for top-of-atmosphere (TOA) forcings. Uncertainties in the contribution of the strongly absorbing black carbon aerosol leads to a range in TOA forcings of ca. -0.5 to + 0.1 Wm (exp. -2), while the change in aerosol distributions between 1950 to 1990 leads to a change of -0.1 to -0.3 Wm (exp. -2), for fossil fuel derived aerosol with a "moderate" contribution of black carbon aerosol.

  14. Linearity of Climate Response to Increases in Black Carbon Aerosols

    SciTech Connect

    Mahajan, Salil; Evans, Katherine J.; Hack, James J.; Truesdale, John

    2013-04-19

    The impact of absorbing aerosols on global climate are not completely understood. Here, we present results of idealized experiments conducted with the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) coupled to a slab ocean model (CAM4-SOM) to simulate the climate response to increases in tropospheric black carbon aerosols (BC) by direct and semi-direct effects. CAM4-SOM was forced with 0, 1x, 2x, 5x and 10x an estimate of the present day concentration of BC while maintaining their estimated present day global spatial and vertical distribution. The top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing of BC in these experiments is positive (warming) and increases linearly as the BC burden increases. The total semi-direct effect for the 1x experiment is positive but becomes increasingly negative for higher BC concentrations. The global average surface temperature response is found to be a linear function of the TOA radiative forcing. The climate sensitivity to BC from these experiments is estimated to be 0.42 K $ W^{-1} m^{2}$ when the semi-direct effects are accounted for and 0.22 K $ W^{-1} m^{2}$ with only the direct effects considered. Global average precipitation decreases linearly as BC increases, with a precipitation sensitivity to atmospheric absorption of 0.4 $\\%$ $W^{-1}m^{2}$ . The hemispheric asymmetry of BC also causes an increase in southward cross-equatorial heat transport and a resulting northward shift of the inter-tropical convergence zone in the simulations at a rate of 4$^{\\circ}$N $ PW^{-1}$. Global average mid- and high-level clouds decrease, whereas the low-level clouds increase linearly with BC. The increase in marine stratocumulus cloud fraction over the south tropical Atlantic is caused by increased BC-induced diabatic heating of the free troposphere.

  15. Aerosol-Induced Changes of Convective Cloud Anvils Produce Strong Climate Warming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koren, I.; Remer, L. A.; Altaratz, O.; Martins, J. V.; Davidi, A.

    2010-01-01

    The effect of aerosol on clouds poses one of the largest uncertainties in estimating the anthropogenic contribution to climate change. Small human-induced perturbations to cloud characteristics via aerosol pathways can create a change in the top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing of hundreds of Wm(exp-2) . Here we focus on links between aerosol and deep convective clouds of the Atlantic and Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zones, noting that the aerosol environment in each region is entirely different. The tops of these vertically developed clouds consisting of mostly ice can reach high levels of the atmosphere, overshooting the lower stratosphere and reaching altitudes greater than 16 km. We show a link between aerosol, clouds and the free atmosphere wind profile that can change the magnitude and sign of the overall climate radiative forcing. We find that increased aerosol loading is associated with taller cloud towers and anvils. The taller clouds reach levels of enhanced wind speeds that act to spread and thin the anvi1 clouds, increasing areal coverage and decreasing cloud optical depth. The radiative effect of this transition is to create a positive radiative forcing (warming) at top-of-atmosphere. Furthermore we introduce the cloud optical depth (r), cloud height (Z) forcing space and show that underestimation of radiative forcing is likely to occur in cases of non homogenous clouds. Specifically, the mean radiative forcing of towers and anvils in the same scene can be several times greater than simply calculating the forcing from the mean cloud optical depth in the scene. Limitations of the method are discussed, alternative sources of aerosol loading are tested and meteorological variance is restricted, but the trend of taller clouds; increased and thinner anvils associated with increased aerosol loading remains robust through all the different tests and perturbations.

  16. Assessing the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific storm track using a multiscale global climate model

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J.; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Molina, Mario J.

    2014-01-01

    Atmospheric aerosols affect weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track, using a multiscale global aerosol–climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and preindustrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by −2.5 and +1.3 W m−2, respectively, by emission changes from preindustrial to present day, and an increased cloud top height indicates invigorated midlatitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides, for the first time to the authors’ knowledge, a global perspective of the effects of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multiscale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on a global scale. PMID:24733923

  17. Stratospheric Aerosol--Observations, Processes, and Impact on Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kresmer, Stefanie; Thomason, Larry W.; von Hobe, Marc; Hermann, Markus; Deshler, Terry; Timmreck, Claudia; Toohey, Matthew; Stenke, Andrea; Schwarz, Joshua P.; Weigel, Ralf; Fueglistaler, Stephan; Prata, Fred J.; Vernier, Jean-Paul; Schlager, Hans; Barnes, John E.; Antuna-Marrero, Juan-Carlos; Fairlie, Duncan; Palm, Mathias; Mahieu, Emmanuel; Notholt, Justus; Rex, Markus; Bingen, Christine; Vanhellemont, Filip; Bourassa, Adam; Plane, John M. C.; Klocke, Daniel; Carn, Simon A.; Clarisse, Lieven; Trickl, Thomas; Neeley, Ryan; James, Alexander D.; Rieger, Landon; Wilson, James C.; Meland, Brian

    2016-01-01

    Interest in stratospheric aerosol and its role in climate have increased over the last decade due to the observed increase in stratospheric aerosol since 2000 and the potential for changes in the sulfur cycle induced by climate change. This review provides an overview about the advances in stratospheric aerosol research since the last comprehensive assessment of stratospheric aerosol was published in 2006. A crucial development since 2006 is the substantial improvement in the agreement between in situ and space-based inferences of stratospheric aerosol properties during volcanically quiescent periods. Furthermore, new measurement systems and techniques, both in situ and space based, have been developed for measuring physical aerosol properties with greater accuracy and for characterizing aerosol composition. However, these changes induce challenges to constructing a long-term stratospheric aerosol climatology. Currently, changes in stratospheric aerosol levels less than 20% cannot be confidently quantified. The volcanic signals tend to mask any nonvolcanically driven change, making them difficult to understand. While the role of carbonyl sulfide as a substantial and relatively constant source of stratospheric sulfur has been confirmed by new observations and model simulations, large uncertainties remain with respect to the contribution from anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions. New evidence has been provided that stratospheric aerosol can also contain small amounts of nonsulfatematter such as black carbon and organics. Chemistry-climate models have substantially increased in quantity and sophistication. In many models the implementation of stratospheric aerosol processes is coupled to radiation and/or stratospheric chemistry modules to account for relevant feedback processes.

  18. Spectral aerosol direct radiative forcing from airborne radiative measurements during CalNex and ARCTAS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leblanc, Samuel E.; Schmidt, K. S.; Pilewskie, P.; Redemann, J.; Hostetler, C.; Ferrare, R.; Hair, J.; Langridge, J. M.; Lack, D. A.

    2012-09-01

    This study presents the aerosol radiative forcing derived from airborne measurements of shortwave spectral irradiance during the 2010 Research at the Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change (CalNex). Relative forcing efficiency, the radiative forcing normalized by aerosol optical thickness and incident irradiance, is a means of comparing the aerosol radiative forcing for different conditions. In this study, it is used to put the aerosol radiative effects of an air mass in the Los Angeles basin in context with case studies from three field missions that targeted other regions and aerosol types, including a case study from the Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS). For CalNex, we relied on irradiance measurements onboard the NOAA P-3 aircraft during a flight on 19 May 2010 over a ground station. CalNex presented a difficulty for determining forcing efficiency since one of the input parameters, optical thickness, was not available from the same aircraft. However, extinction profiles were available from a nearby aircraft. An existing retrieval algorithm was modified to use those measurements as initial estimate for the missing optical thickness. In addition, single scattering albedo and asymmetry parameter (secondary products of the method), were compared with CalNex in situ measurements. The CalNex relative forcing efficiency spectra agreed with earlier studies that found this parameter to be constrained at each wavelength within 20% per unit of aerosol optical thickness at 500 nm regardless of aerosol type and experiment, except for highly absorbing aerosols sampled near Mexico City. The diurnally averaged below-layer forcing efficiency integrated over the wavelength range of 350-700 nm for CalNex is estimated to be -58.6 ± 13.8 W/m2, whereas for the ARCTAS case it is -48.7 ± 11.5 W/m2.

  19. An Energetic Perspective on Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Interactions with Atmospheric Wave Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosseinpour, F.; Wilcox, E. M.; Colarco, P. R.

    2014-12-01

    Aerosols have the capability to alter regional-scale atmospheric circulations. A better understanding of the contribution of aerosols to multi-scale atmospheric phenomena and their transient changes is crucial for efforts to evaluate climate predictions using next generation climate models. In this study we address the following questions: (1) Is there a mechanistic relationship between variability of oceanic dust aerosol forcing and transient changes in the African easterly jet- African easterly wave (AEJ-AEW) system? (2) What are the long-term impacts of possible aerosol-wave interactions on climate dynamics of eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean and western African monsoon (WAM) region during boreal summer seasons? Our hypothesis is that aerosol radiative forcing may act as additional energy source to fuel the development of African easterly waves on the northern and southern sides of the AEJ. Evidence in support of this hypothesis is presented based on analysis of an ensemble of NASA satellite data sets, including aerosol optical thickness (AOT) observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) and the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS), as well as an atmospheric reanalysis from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and a simulation of global aerosol distributions made with the Goddard Earth Observing System Model version 5 (GEOS-5) Earth system model with meteorology constrained by MERRA and an assimilation of MODIS AOT (MERRAero). We propose that the impacts of Saharan aerosols on the regional climate dynamics occur through contributions to the eddy energy of waves with 2—7-day and 7—11-day variability.

  20. First Evaluation of the CCAM Aerosol Simulation over Africa: Implications for Regional Climate Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horowitz, H.; Garland, R. M.; Thatcher, M. J.; Naidoo, M.; van der Merwe, J.; Landman, W.; Engelbrecht, F.

    2015-12-01

    An accurate representation of African aerosols in climate models is needed to understand the regional and global radiative forcing and climate impacts of aerosols, at present and under future climate change. However, aerosol simulations in regional climate models for Africa have not been well-tested. Africa contains the largest single source of biomass-burning smoke aerosols and dust globally. Although aerosols are short-lived relative to greenhouse gases, black carbon in particular is estimated to be second only to carbon dioxide in contributing to warming on a global scale. Moreover, Saharan dust is exported great distances over the Atlantic Ocean, affecting nutrient transport to regions like the Amazon rainforest, which can further impact climate. Biomass burning aerosols are also exported from Africa, westward from Angola over the Atlantic Ocean and off the southeastern coast of South Africa to the Indian Ocean. Here, we perform the first extensive quantitative evaluation of the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) aerosol simulation against monitored data, focusing on aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations over Africa. We analyze historical regional simulations for 1999 - 2012 from CCAM consistent with the experimental design of CORDEX at 50 km global horizontal resolution, through the dynamical downscaling of ERA-Interim data reanalysis data, with the CMIP5 emissions inventory (RCP8.5 scenario). CCAM has a prognostic aerosol scheme for organic carbon, black carbon, sulfate, and dust, and non-prognostic sea salt. The CCAM AOD at 550nm was compared to AOD (observed at 440nm, adjusted to 550nm with the Ångström exponent) from long-term AERONET stations across Africa. Sites strongly impacted by dust and biomass burning and with long continuous records were prioritized. In general, the model captures the monthly trends of the AERONET data. This presentation provides a basis for understanding how well aerosol particles are represented over Africa in

  1. Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Weather Forecasts in the ECMWF Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bozzo, A.; Benedetti, A.; Rodwell, M. J.; Bechtold, P.; Remy, S.

    2015-12-01

    Aerosols play an important role in the energy balance of the Earth system via direct scattering and absorpiton of short-wave and long-wave radiation and indirect interaction with clouds. Diabatic heating or cooling by aerosols can also modify the vertical stability of the atmosphere and influence weather pattern with potential impact on the skill of global weather prediction models. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides operational daily analysis and forecast of aerosol optical depth (AOD) for five aerosol species using a prognostic model which is part of the Integrated Forecasting System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF-IFS). The aerosol component was developed during the research project Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC). Aerosols can have a large impact on the weather forecasts in case of large aerosol concentrations as found during dust storms or strong pollution events. However, due to its computational burden, prognostic aerosols are not yet feasible in the ECMWF operational weather forecasts, and monthly-mean climatological fields are used instead. We revised the aerosol climatology used in the operational ECMWF IFS with one derived from the MACC reanalysis. We analyse the impact of changes in the aerosol radiative effect on the mean model climate and in medium-range weather forecasts, also in comparison with prognostic aerosol fields. The new climatology differs from the previous one by Tegen et al 1997, both in the spatial distribution of the total AOD and the optical properties of each aerosol species. The radiative impact of these changes affects the model mean bias at various spatial and temporal scales. On one hand we report small impacts on measures of large-scale forecast skill but on the other hand details of the regional distribution of aerosol concentration have a large local impact. This is the case for the northern Indian Ocean where the radiative impact of the mineral

  2. Reducing the Uncertainties in Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kahn, Ralph A.

    2011-01-01

    Airborne particles, which include desert and soil dust, wildfire smoke, sea salt, volcanic ash, black carbon, natural and anthropogenic sulfate, nitrate, and organic aerosol, affect Earth's climate, in part by reflecting and absorbing sunlight. This paper reviews current status, and evaluates future prospects for reducing the uncertainty aerosols contribute to the energy budget of Earth, which at present represents a leading factor limiting the quality of climate predictions. Information from satellites is critical for this work, because they provide frequent, global coverage of the diverse and variable atmospheric aerosol load. Both aerosol amount and type must be determined. Satellites are very close to measuring aerosol amount at the level-of-accuracy needed, but aerosol type, especially how bright the airborne particles are, cannot be constrained adequately by current techniques. However, satellite instruments can map out aerosol air mass type, which is a qualitative classification rather than a quantitative measurement, and targeted suborbital measurements can provide the required particle property detail. So combining satellite and suborbital measurements, and then using this combination to constrain climate models, will produce a major advance in climate prediction.

  3. Satellite-derived aerosol radiative forcing from the 2004 British Columbia wildfires

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Guo, S.; Leighton, H.

    2008-01-01

    The British Columbia wildfires of 2004 was one of the largest wildfire events in the last ten years in Canada. Both the shortwave and longwave smoke aerosol radiative forcing at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) are investigated using data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments. Relationships between the radiative forcing fluxes (??F) and wildfire aerosol optical thickness (AOT) at 0.55 ??m (??0.55) are deduced for both noontime instantaneous forcing and diurnally averaged forcing. The noontime averaged instantaneous shortwave and longwave smoke aerosol radiative forcing at the TOA are 45.8??27.5 W m-2 and -12.6??6.9 W m-2, respectively for a selected study area between 62??N and 68??N in latitude and 125??W and 145??W in longitude over three mainly clear-sky days (23-25 June). The derived diurnally averaged smoke aerosol shortwave radiative forcing is 19.9??12.1 W m-2 for a mean ??0.55 of 1.88??0.71 over the same time period. The derived ??F-?? relationship can be implemented in the radiation scheme used in regional climate models to assess the effect of wildfire aerosols.

  4. Aerosol size distribution and radiative forcing response to anthropogenically driven historical changes in biogenic secondary organic aerosol formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Andrea, S. D.; Acosta Navarro, J. C.; Farina, S. C.; Scott, C. E.; Rap, A.; Farmer, D. K.; Spracklen, D. V.; Riipinen, I.; Pierce, J. R.

    2015-03-01

    Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) have changed in the past millennium due to changes in land use, temperature, and CO2 concentrations. Recent reconstructions of BVOC emissions have predicted that global isoprene emissions have decreased, while monoterpene and sesquiterpene emissions have increased; however, all three show regional variability due to competition between the various influencing factors. In this work, we use two modeled estimates of BVOC emissions from the years 1000 to 2000 to test the effect of anthropogenic changes to BVOC emissions on secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation, global aerosol size distributions, and radiative effects using the GEOS-Chem-TOMAS (Goddard Earth Observing System; TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional) global aerosol microphysics model. With anthropogenic emissions (e.g., SO2, NOx, primary aerosols) turned off and BVOC emissions changed from year 1000 to year 2000 values, decreases in the number concentration of particles of size Dp > 80 nm (N80) of > 25% in year 2000 relative to year 1000 were predicted in regions with extensive land-use changes since year 1000 which led to regional increases in the combined aerosol radiative effect (direct and indirect) of > 0.5 W m-2 in these regions. We test the sensitivity of our results to BVOC emissions inventory, SOA yields, and the presence of anthropogenic emissions; however, the qualitative response of the model to historic BVOC changes remains the same in all cases. Accounting for these uncertainties, we estimate millennial changes in BVOC emissions cause a global mean direct effect of between +0.022 and +0.163 W m-2 and the global mean cloud-albedo aerosol indirect effect of between -0.008 and -0.056 W m-2. This change in aerosols, and the associated radiative forcing, could be a largely overlooked and important anthropogenic aerosol effect on regional climates.

  5. The impact of volcanic aerosol on the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex: mechanisms and sensitivity to forcing structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toohey, M.; Krüger, K.; Bittner, M.; Timmreck, C.; Schmidt, H.

    2014-12-01

    Observations and simple theoretical arguments suggest that the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex is stronger in winters following major volcanic eruptions. However, recent studies show that climate models forced by prescribed volcanic aerosol fields fail to reproduce this effect. We investigate the impact of volcanic aerosol forcing on stratospheric dynamics, including the strength of the NH polar vortex, in ensemble simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. The model is forced by four different prescribed forcing sets representing the radiative properties of stratospheric aerosol following the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo: two forcing sets are based on observations, and are commonly used in climate model simulations, and two forcing sets are constructed based on coupled aerosol-climate model simulations. For all forcings, we find that simulated temperature and zonal wind anomalies in the NH high latitudes are not directly impacted by anomalous volcanic aerosol heating. Instead, high-latitude effects result from enhancements in stratospheric residual circulation, which in turn result, at least in part, from enhanced stratospheric wave activity. High-latitude effects are therefore much less robust than would be expected if they were the direct result of aerosol heating. Both observation-based forcing sets result in insignificant changes in vortex strength. For the model-based forcing sets, the vortex response is found to be sensitive to the structure of the forcing, with one forcing set leading to significant strengthening of the polar vortex in rough agreement with observation-based expectations. Differences in the dynamical response to the forcing sets imply that reproducing the polar vortex responses to past eruptions, or predicting the response to future eruptions, depends on accurate representation of the space-time structure of the volcanic aerosol forcing.

  6. Aerosol Absorption by Black Carbon and Dust: Implications of Climate Change and Air Quality in Asia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chin, Mian

    2010-01-01

    Atmospheric aerosol distributions from 2000 to 2007 are simulated with the global model GOCART to attribute light absorption by aerosol to its composition and sources. We show the seasonal and interannual variations of absorbing aerosols in the atmosphere over Asia, mainly black carbon and dust. and their linkage to the changes of anthropogenic and dust emissions in the region. We compare our results with observations from satellite and ground-based networks, and estimate the importance of black carbon and dust on regional climate forcing and air quality.

  7. Impacts of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions on Climate Change in East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shim, S.; Jung, Y.; Baek, H.; Cho, C.

    2013-12-01

    Climate impact by anthropogenic drivers gives high concerns in climate change simulation. IPCC AR4 emphasized the role of aerosol on climate besides the GHGs due to its negative significant radiative forcing. We find that climate feedback of anthropogenic aerosols over East Asia through direct and indirect (aerosol-cloud interaction) radiative process using HadGEM2-AO developed by the UK Met office. Due to the industrial revolution and population growth, total anthropogenic aerosol emissions have grown dramatically over East Asia; sulfate aerosol is the dominant component accounting for about 50% of total aerosol optical depth at 550nm (Figure 1). An increased amount of aerosols might increase the CCN number concentration and lead to more, but smaller, cloud droplets for fixed liquid water content. This increases the albedo of the cloud, resulting in enhance reflection and a cooling effect. And smaller drops require longer growth times to reach size at which they easily fall as precipitation. This effect called the cloud lifetime effect may enhance the cloud cover (Figure 2), with a persistent positive correlation between cloud cover and aerosol optical depth. Particularly, aerosols have an influence on the amount of cloud cover (SC, ST, and NS) through the interaction with precipitation efficiency of low level clouds. As a result of perturbations of East Asia aerosols from preindustrial to present day, a net radiative flux at the top of atmosphere is estimated to be -4 W/m2, with a regional mean surface cooling of 1.2 K. More detailed analysis will be shown at the conference. Fig. 1. (a) Total AOD distributions (b) Changes in decadal mean AOD over East Asia. Fig 2. Cloud cover distributions classified by ISCCP cloud types.

  8. Complex Coupling of Air Quality and Climate-Relevant Aerosols in a Chemistry-Aerosol Microphysics Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoshioka, M.; Carslaw, K. S.; Reddington, C.; Mann, G.

    2013-12-01

    Controlling emissions of aerosols and their precursors to improve air quality will impact the climate through direct and indirect radiative forcing. We have investigated the impacts of changes in a range of aerosol and gas-phase emission fluxes and changes in temperature on air quality and climate change metrics using a global aerosol microphysics and chemistry model, GLOMAP. We investigate how the responses of PM2.5 and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are coupled, and how attempts to improve air quality could have inadvertent effects on CCN, clouds and climate. The parameter perturbations considered are a 5°C increase in global temperature, increased or decreased precursor emissions of anthropogenic SO2, NH3, and NOx, and biogenic monoterpenes, and increased or decreased primary emissions of organic and black carbon aerosols from wildfire, fossil fuel, and biofuel. To quantify the interactions, we define a new sensitivity metric in terms of the response of CCN divided by the response of PM in different regions. .Our results show that the coupled chemistry and aerosol processes cause complex responses that will make any co-benefit policy decision problematic. In particular, we show that reducing SO2 emissions effectively reduces surface-level PM2.5 over continental regions in summer when background PM2.5 is high, with a relatively small reduction in marine CCN (and hence indirect radiative cooling over ocean), which is beneficial for near-term climate. Reducing NOx emissions does not improve summertime air quality very effectively but leads to a relatively high reduction of marine CCN. Reducing NH3 emissions has moderate effects on both PM2.5 and CCN. These three species are strongly coupled chemically and microphysically and the effects of changing emissions of one species on mass and size distributions of aerosols are very complex and spatially and temporally variable. For example, reducing SO2 emissions leads to reductions in sulphate and ammonium mass

  9. Sensitivity of Remote Aerosol Distributions to Representation of Cloud-Aerosol Interactions in a Global Climate Model

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Hailong; Easter, Richard C.; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Minghuai; Liu, Xiaohong; Ghan, Steven J.; Qian, Yun; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Ma, Po-Lun; Vinoj, V.

    2013-06-05

    Many global aerosol and climate models, including the widely used Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), have large biases in predicting aerosols in remote regions such as upper troposphere and high latitudes. In this study, we conduct CAM5 sensitivity simulations to understand the role of key processes associated with aerosol transformation and wet removal affecting the vertical and horizontal long-range transport of aerosols to the remote regions. Improvements are made to processes that are currently not well represented in CAM5, which are guided by surface and aircraft measurements together with results from a multi-scale aerosol-climate model (PNNL-MMF) that explicitly represents convection and aerosol-cloud interactions at cloud-resolving scales. We pay particular attention to black carbon (BC) due to its importance in the Earth system and the availability of measurements. We introduce into CAM5 a new unified scheme for convective transport and aerosol wet removal with explicit aerosol activation above convective cloud base. This new implementation reduces the excessive BC aloft to better simulate observed BC profiles that show decreasing mixing ratios in the mid- to upper-troposphere. After implementing this new unified convective scheme, we examine wet removal of submicron aerosols that occurs primarily through cloud processes. The wet removal depends strongly on the sub-grid scale liquid cloud fraction and the rate of conversion of liquid water to precipitation. These processes lead to very strong wet removal of BC and other aerosols over mid- to high latitudes during winter months. With our improvements, the Arctic BC burden has a10-fold (5-fold) increase in the winter (summer) months, resulting in a much better simulation of the BC seasonal cycle as well. Arctic sulphate and other aerosol species also increase but to a lesser extent. An explicit treatment of BC aging with slower aging assumptions produces an additional 30-fold (5-fold) increase in

  10. Influences of relative humidity on aerosol optical properties and aerosol radiative forcing during ACE-Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, Soon-Chang; Kim, Jiyoung

    In situ measurements at Gosan, South Korea, and onboard C-130 aircraft during ACE-Asia were analyzed to investigate the influence of relative humidity (RH) on aerosol optical properties and radiative forcing. The temporal variation of aerosol chemical composition at the Gosan super-site was highly dependent on the air mass transport pathways and source region. RH in the springtime over East Asia were distributed with very high spatial and temporal variation. The RH profile onboard C-130 aircraft measurements exhibits a mixed layer height of about 2 km. Aerosol scattering coefficient ( σsp) under ambient RH was greatly enhanced as compared with that at dry RH (RH<40%). From the aerosol optical and radiative transfer modeling studies, we found that the extinction and scattering coefficients are greatly enhanced with RH. Single scattering albedo with RH is also sensitively changed in the longer wavelength. Asymmetry parameter ( g) is gradually increased with RH although g decreases with wavelength at a given RH. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm and RH of 50% increased to factors 1.24, 1.51, 2.16, and 3.20 at different RH levels 70, 80, 90, and 95%, respectively. Diurnal-averaged aerosol radiative forcings for surface, TOA, and atmosphere were increased with RH because AOD was increased with RH due to hygroscopic growth of aerosol particles. This result implies that the hygroscopic growth due to water-soluble or hydrophilic particles in the lower troposphere may significantly modify the magnitude of aerosol radiative forcing both at the surface and TOA. However, the diurnal-averaged radiative forcing efficiencies at the surface, TOA, and atmosphere were decreased with increasing RH. The decrease of the forcing efficiency with RH results from the fact that increasing rate of aerosol optical depth with RH is greater than the increasing rate of aerosol radiative forcing with RH.

  11. Shortwave radiative forcing efficiency of urban aerosols--a case study using ground based measurements.

    PubMed

    Latha, K Madhavi; Badarinath, K V S

    2005-01-01

    Aerosols reduce the surface reaching solar flux by scattering the incoming solar radiation out to space. Various model studies on climate change suggest that surface cooling induced by aerosol scattering is the largest source of uncertainty in predicting the future climate. In the present study measurements of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and its direct radiative forcing efficiency has been presented over a typical tropical urban environment namely Hyderabad during December, 2003. Measurements of AOD have been carried out using MICROTOPS-II sunphotometer, black carbon aerosol mass concentration using Aethalometer, total aerosol mass concentration using channel Quartz Crystal Microbalance (QCM) Impactor Particle analyser and direct normal solar irradiance using Multifilter Rotating Shadow Band Radiometer (MFRSR). Diurnal variation of AOD showed high values during afternoon hours. The fraction of BC estimated to be approximately 9% in the total aerosol mass concentration over the study area. Results of the study suggest -62.5 Wm(-2) reduction in the ground reaching shortwave flux for every 0.1 increase in aerosol optical depth. The results have been discussed in the paper.

  12. Atmospheric Teleconnection over Eurasia Induced by Aerosol Radiative Forcing During Boreal Spring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Maeng-Ki; Lau, K. M.; Chin, Mian; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Sud, Y. C.; Walker, Greg K.

    2005-01-01

    The direct effects of aerosols on global and regional climate during boreal spring are investigated based on simulations using the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM) with Microphyics of clouds in Relaxed Arakawa Schubert Scheme (McRAS). The aerosol loading are prescribed from three-dimensional monthly distribution of tropospheric aerosols viz., sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, soil dust, and sea salt from output of the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). The aerosol extinction coefficient, single scattering albedo, and asymmetric factor are computed as wavelength-dependent radiative forcing in the radiative transfer scheme of the fvGCM, and as a function of the aerosol loading and ambient relative humidity. We find that anomalous atmospheric heat sources induced by absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) excites a planetary scale teleconnection pattern in sea level pressure, temperature and geopotential height spanning North Africa through Eurasia to the North Pacific. Surface cooling due to direct effects of aerosols is found in the vicinity and downstream of the aerosol source regions, i.e., South Asia, East Asia, and northern and western Africa. Additionally, atmospheric heating is found in regions with large loading of dust (over Northern Africa, and Middle East), and black carbon (over South-East Asia). Paradoxically, the most pronounced feature in aerosol-induced surface temperature is an east-west dipole anomaly with strong cooling over the Caspian Sea, and warming over central and northeastern Asia, where aerosol concentration are low. Analyses of circulation anomalies show that the dipole anomaly is a part of an atmospheric teleconnection driven by atmospheric heating anomalies induced by absorbing aerosols in the source regions, but the influence was conveyed globally through barotropic energy dispersion and sustained by feedback processes

  13. Do Diurnal Aerosol Changes Affect Daily Average Radiative Forcing?

    SciTech Connect

    Kassianov, Evgueni I.; Barnard, James C.; Pekour, Mikhail S.; Berg, Larry K.; Michalsky, Joseph J.; Lantz, K.; Hodges, G. B.

    2013-06-17

    Strong diurnal variability of aerosol has been observed frequently for many urban/industrial regions. How this variability may alter the direct aerosol radiative forcing (DARF), however, is largely unknown. To quantify changes in the time-averaged DARF, we perform an assessment of 29 days of high temporal resolution ground-based data collected during the Two-Column Aerosol Project (TCAP) on Cape Cod, which is downwind of metropolitan areas. We demonstrate that strong diurnal changes of aerosol loading (about 20% on average) have a negligible impact on the 24-h average DARF, when daily averaged optical properties are used to find this quantity. However, when there is a sparse temporal sampling of aerosol properties, which may preclude the calculation of daily averaged optical properties, large errors (up to 100%) in the computed DARF may occur. We describe a simple way of reducing these errors, which suggests the minimal temporal sampling needed to accurately find the forcing.

  14. Aerosol-Water Cycle Interaction: A New Challenge in Monsoon Climate Research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2006-01-01

    Long recognized as a major environmental hazard, aerosol is now known to have strong impacts on both regional and global climate. It has been estimated that aerosol may reduce by up to 10% of the seasonal mean solar radiation reaching the earth surface, producing a global cooling effect that opposes global warming (Climate Change 2001). This means that the potential perils that humans have committed to global warming may be far greater than what we can detect at the present. As a key component of the Earth climate system, the water cycle is profoundly affected by the presence of aerosols in the atmosphere. Through the so-called direct effect , aerosol scatters and/or absorbs solar radiation, thus cooling the earth surface and changing the horizontal and vertical radiational heating contrast in the atmosphere. The heating contrast drives anomalous atmospheric circulation, resulting in changes in convection, clouds, and rainfall. Another way aerosol can affect the water cycle is through the so-called indirect effects, whereby aerosol increases the number of cloud condensation nuclei, prolongs life time of clouds, and inhibits the growth of cloud drops to raindrops. This leads to more clouds, and increased reflection of solar radiation, and further cooling at the earth surface. In monsoon regions, the response of the water cycle to aerosol forcing is especially complex, not only because of presence of diverse mix of aerosol species with vastly different radiative properties, but also because the monsoon is strongly influenced by ocean and land surface processes, land use, land change, as well as regional and global greenhouse warming effects. Thus, sorting out the impacts of aerosol forcing, and interaction with the monsoon water cycle is a very challenging problem. In this talk, I will offer some insights into how aerosols may impact the Asian monsoon based on preliminary results from satellite observations and climate model experiments. Specifically, I will discuss

  15. Aerosol-Water Cycle Interaction: A New Challenge in Monsoon Climate Research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2006-01-01

    Long recognized as a major environmental hazard, aerosol is now known to have strong impacts on both regional and global climate. It has been estimated that aerosol may reduce by up to 10% of the seasonal mean solar radiation reaching the earth surface, producing a global cooling effect that opposes global warming (Climate Change 2001). This means that the potential perils that humans have committed to global warming may be far greater than what we can detect at the present. As a key component of the Earth climate system, the water cycle is profoundly affected by the presence of aerosols in the atmosphere. Through the so-called "direct effect", aerosol scatters and/or absorbs solar radiation, thus cooling the earth surface and changing the horizontal and vertical radiational heating contrast in the atmosphere. The heating contrast drives anomalous atmospheric circulation, resulting in changes in convection, clouds, and rainfall. Another way aerosol can affect the water cycle is through the so-called "indirect effects", whereby aerosol increases the number of cloud condensation nuclei, prolongs life time of clouds, and inhibits the growth of cloud drops to raindrops. This leads to more clouds, and increased reflection of solar radiation, and further cooling at the earth surface. In monsoon regions, the response of the water cycle to aerosol forcing is especially complex, not only because of presence of diverse mix of aerosol species with vastly different radiative properties, but also because the monsoon is strongly influenced by ocean and land surface processes, land use, land change, as well as regional and global greenhouse warming effects. Thus, sorting out the impacts of aerosol forcing, and interaction with the monsoon water cycle is a very challenging problem. In this talk, I will offer some insights into how aerosols may impact the Asian monsoon based on preliminary results from satellite observations and climate model experiments. Specifically, I will

  16. Improving Our Fundamental Understanding of the Role of Aerosol Cloud Interactions in the Climate System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Seinfeld, John H.; Bretherton, Christopher; Carslaw, Kenneth S.; Coe, Hugh; DeMott, Paul J.; Dunlea, Edward J.; Feingold, Graham; Ghan, Steven; Guenther, Alex B.; Kahn, Ralph; Kraucunas, Ian; Kreidenweis, Sonia M.; Molina, Mario J.; Nenes, Athanasios; Penner, Joyce E.; Prather, Kimberly A.; Ramanathan, V.; Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam; Rasch, Philip J.; Ravishankara, A. R.; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Stephens, Graeme; Wood, Robert

    2016-01-01

    The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth's clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol-cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol-cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.

  17. Improving our fundamental understanding of the role of aerosol-cloud interactions in the climate system.

    PubMed

    Seinfeld, John H; Bretherton, Christopher; Carslaw, Kenneth S; Coe, Hugh; DeMott, Paul J; Dunlea, Edward J; Feingold, Graham; Ghan, Steven; Guenther, Alex B; Kahn, Ralph; Kraucunas, Ian; Kreidenweis, Sonia M; Molina, Mario J; Nenes, Athanasios; Penner, Joyce E; Prather, Kimberly A; Ramanathan, V; Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam; Rasch, Philip J; Ravishankara, A R; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Stephens, Graeme; Wood, Robert

    2016-05-24

    The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth's clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol-cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol-cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.

  18. Improving our fundamental understanding of the role of aerosol-cloud interactions in the climate system

    DOE PAGES

    Seinfeld, John H.; Bretherton, Christopher; Carslaw, Kenneth S.; ...

    2016-05-24

    The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth’s clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from pre-industrial time. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol-cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions but significant challengesmore » exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. Lastly, we suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol-cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.« less

  19. Improving our fundamental understanding of the role of aerosol-cloud interactions in the climate system

    SciTech Connect

    Seinfeld, John H.; Bretherton, Christopher; Carslaw, Kenneth S.; Coe, Hugh; DeMott, Paul J.; Dunlea, Edward J.; Feingold, Graham; Ghan, Steven; Guenther, Alex B.; Kahn, Ralph; Kraucunas, Ian; Kreidenweis, Sonia M.; Molina, Mario J.; Nenes, Athanasios; Penner, Joyce E.; Prather, Kimberly A.; Ramanathan, V.; Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam; Rasch, Philip J.; Ravishankara, A. R.; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Stephens, Graeme; Wood, Robert

    2016-05-24

    The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth’s clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from pre-industrial time. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol-cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. Lastly, we suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol-cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.

  20. Reconstruction of the Tambora forcing with global aerosol models : Challenges and limitations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khodri, Myriam; Zanchettin, Davide; Timmreck, Claudia

    2016-04-01

    It is now generally recognised that volcanic eruptions have an important effect on climate variability from inter-annual to decadal timescales. For the largest tropical volcanic eruptions of the last millennium, simulated volcanic surface cooling derived from climate models often disagrees with the cooling seen in tree-ring-based proxies. Furthermore, cooling estimates from simulations show large uncertainties. Such disagreement can be related to several sources, including inconsistency of the currently available volcanic forcing datasets, unrealistic modelled volcanic forcing, insufficient representation of relevant climate processes, and different background climate states simulated at the time of the eruption. In particular, for eruptions that occurred before the observational period forcing characteristics related to the eruption magnitude and stratospheric aerosol properties are deduced from indirect evidences. So, while climatically relevant forcing properties for recent volcanic eruptions are relatively well constrained by direct observations, large uncertainties remain regarding processes of aerosol formation and evolution in the stratosphere after large tropical eruptions of the remote past. Several coordinated modelling assessments have been defined to frame future modeling activities and constrain the above-mentioned uncertainties. Among these, the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) has endorsed a multi-model assessment focused on the climatic response to strong volcanic eruptions (VolMIP). VolMIP defines a protocol for idealized volcanic-perturbation experiments to improve comparability among climate model results. Identification of a consensual volcanic forcing dataset for the 1815 Tambora eruption is a key step of VolMIP, as it is the largest-magnitude volcanic eruption of the past five centuries and reference for the VolMIP core experiments. Therefore, as a first key step, five current/state-of-the-art global aerosol

  1. Climate Response to Warm Cloud-Aerosol Interactions: Comparisons With Direct Aerosol and Long-Lived Greenhouse Gas Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramaswamy, V.; Ming, Y.

    2006-12-01

    We employ the NOAA/ GFDL global atmospheric model coupled to a mixed-layer ocean to investigate the mechanisms and quantitative aspects underlying the radiative perturbations and climate response arising due to cloud-aerosol interactions in low-lying clouds. The aerosol species considered include sulfate, sea-salt and carbonaceous species, whose space-time distributions are determined offline by the MOZART 2 chemistry- transport model based on emissions data. The model's prognostic cloud scheme of liquid water and amount is expanded to include cloud droplet concentration in a way that importantly allows them to be computed using the same large-scale and convective updraft velocity field. The equilibrium response of the model's global climate system to the change in aerosols from pre- industrial to present-day is evaluated, in terms of the forcing applied and the role of the large- and cloud-scale feedback mechanisms. The cloud characteristics simulated are compared against observations, while the model's response is compared with that obtained from using a diagnostic aerosol-cloud relationship to highlight the significance of specific cloud microphysical processes. The spatial distributions of the thermal and hydrologic responses are also compared with those resulting from simulations performed for the pre-industrial to present-day direct aerosol effect. The temperature responses in the low and high latitudes, including changes in the large-scale precipitation pattern, are contrasted with those due to the well-mixed greenhouse gases. The forcing-response relationship is examined for the radiative perturbations investigated, with surface radiative forcing included in these considerations. We finally investigate the concept of linear additivity of the responses in various climate variables for the set of radiative perturbations considered above, extending from the global- and zonal-mean to continental scales.

  2. Anthropogenic Sulfate, Clouds, and Climate Forcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ghan, Steven J.

    1997-01-01

    This research work is a joint effort between research groups at the Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Virginia Tech University, Georgia Institute of Technology, Brookhaven National Laboratory, and Texas A&M University. It has been jointly sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. In this research, a detailed tropospheric aerosol-chemistry model that predicts oxidant concentrations as well as concentrations of sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosols has been coupled to a general circulation model that distinguishes between cloud water mass and cloud droplet number. The coupled model system has been first validated and then used to estimate the radiative impact of anthropogenic sulfur emissions. Both the direct radiative impact of the aerosols and their indirect impact through their influence on cloud droplet number are represented by distinguishing between sulfuric acid vapor and fresh and aged sulfate aerosols, and by parameterizing cloud droplet nucleation in terms of vertical velocity and the number concentration of aged sulfur aerosols. Natural sulfate aerosols, dust, and carbonaceous and nitrate aerosols and their influence on the radiative impact of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, through competition as cloud condensation nuclei, will also be simulated. Parallel simulations with and without anthropogenic sulfur emissions are performed for a global domain. The objectives of the research are: To couple a state-of-the-art tropospheric aerosol-chemistry model with a global climate model. To use field and satellite measurements to evaluate the treatment of tropospheric chemistry and aerosol physics in the coupled model. To use the coupled model to simulate the radiative (and ultimately climatic) impacts of anthropogenic sulfur emissions.

  3. Radiative Forcing Due to Major Aerosol Emitting Sectors in China and India

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Streets, David G.; Shindell, Drew Todd; Lu, Zifeng; Faluvegi, Greg

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic aerosol sources is essential for making effective emission control decisions to mitigate climate change. We examined the net direct plus indirect radiative forcing caused by carbonaceous aerosol and sulfur emissions in key sectors of China and India using the GISS-E2 chemistry-climate model. Diesel trucks and buses (67 mW/ sq. m) and residential biofuel combustion (52 mW/ sq. m) in India have the largest global mean, annual average forcings due mainly to the direct and indirect effects of BC. Emissions from these two sectors in China have near-zero net global forcings. Coal-fired power plants in both countries exert a negative forcing of about -30 mW/ sq. m from production of sulfate. Aerosol forcings are largest locally, with direct forcings due to residential biofuel combustion of 580 mW/ sq. m over India and 416 mW/ sq. m over China, but they extend as far as North America, Europe, and the Arctic

  4. Deciphering the Climatic Effects of Volcanic Aerosols: What Lies Ahead and Why Should We Care?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Self, S.

    2011-12-01

    The twentieth century was perhaps unusually free of explosive eruptions that affected highly populated Northern Hemisphere regions (where ~ 90 % of global residents live), thus our historic perspective on aspects of widespread volcanic-aerosol-induced climatic changes is limited. Highly explosive eruptions up to VEI 6 [Krakatau-size (bigger than Pinatubo), mean frequency ~ 2 per century] cause ash and aerosol clouds that affect global climate, weather, and communications; aerosol-induced cooling is small (< 1 degree C). Perhaps VEI 7 explosive eruptions (bigger than Tambora 1815) should concern us more? They are under-reported in the record, with a > 10 % chance of one occurring in the next century but the radiative effects of aerosols derived from Tambora's ~ 60 Mt release of sulphur dioxide may be limited by rapid droplet growth and sedimentation [Timmreck et al., 2009]. Basaltic fissure eruptions such as Laki 1783 can also cause long-lasting aerosol clouds, with severe local and possibly widespread health effects; some far-field health impacts ascribed to Laki's gas or aerosols may have another explanation. The > 100 Mt of sulphur dioxide released from Laki over several months may have caused ~ 200 Mt of aerosols but the cold 1783-4 winter has been claimed to be within the range of climatic variability [D'Arrigo et al., 2011]. In order to assess what lies in our future, further modelling is required to attempt to isolate the effects of volcanic stratospheric aerosols from the influences of other forcings that lead to climatic variability. Positive effects of future eruptions include possible offset of global warming via radiatively effective stratospheric aerosols and ash-fall onto oceans, which may help decrease atmospheric carbon dioxide.

  5. Implications of Climate Policies for Future Aerosol: Health and Economic Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Selin, N. E.; Wang, C.; Sokolov, A. P.; Paltsev, S.; Webster, M. D.; Reilly, J. M.

    2010-12-01

    We quantify the global changes in atmospheric aerosol (PM2.5) and their related health and economic impacts under a reference case and four greenhouse gas stabilization scenarios to 2050. Policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could reduce emissions of aerosol precursors, due to reduced energy use or cleaner energy generation. We assess these potential benefits using climate policy scenarios from the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) framework, which consists of a set of coupled models for the climate, ecosystem, atmospheric chemistry and economy, at global scale. We use aerosol precursor emissions and greenhouse gas forcings from the IGSM to drive the MIT/NCAR version of the Community Atmospheric Model version 3 (CAM3). We calculate the influence of future aerosol precursor emissions changes, climatic changes, and their combined effects on population-weighted average PM2.5 in sixteen global regions. We then use an economic and health model to quantify the implications of these changes for human disease and the global economy. Finally, we compare the magnitude of these changes to the cost of greenhouse gas policies. We find that global aerosol-related health and economic benefits associated with climate policies are smaller than estimated global costs of climate policy, but not negligible in the context of policy analysis.

  6. Estimates of the direct and indirect radiative forcing due to tropospheric aerosols: A review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haywood, James; Boucher, Olivier

    2000-11-01

    This paper reviews the many developments in estimates of the direct and indirect global annual mean radiative forcing due to present-day concentrations of anthropogenic tropospheric aerosols since Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [1996]. The range of estimates of the global mean direct radiative forcing due to six distinct aerosol types is presented. Additionally, the indirect effect is split into two components corresponding to the radiative forcing due to modification of the radiative properties of clouds (cloud albedo effect) and the effects of anthropogenic aerosols upon the lifetime of clouds (cloud lifetime effect). The radiative forcing for anthropogenic sulphate aerosol ranges from -0.26 to -0.82 W m-2. For fossil fuel black carbon the radiative forcing ranges from +0.16 W m-2 for an external mixture to +0.42 W m-2 for where the black carbon is modeled as internally mixed with sulphate aerosol. For fossil fuel organic carbon the two estimates of the likely weakest limit of the direct radiative forcing are -0.02 and -0.04 W m-2. For biomass-burning sources of black carbon and organic carbon the combined radiative forcing ranges from -0.14 to -0.74 W m-2. Estimates of the radiative forcing due to mineral dust vary widely from +0.09 to -0.46 W m-2; even the sign of the radiative forcing is not well established due to the competing effects of solar and terrestrial radiative forcings. A single study provides a very tentative estimate of the radiative forcing of nitrates to be -0.03 W m-2. Estimates of the cloud albedo indirect radiative forcing range from -0.3 to approximately -1.8 W m-2. Although the cloud lifetime effect is identified as a potentially important climate forcing mechanism, it is difficult to quantify in the context of the present definition of radiative forcing of climate change and current model simulations. This is because its estimation by general circulation models necessarily includes some level of cloud and water vapor feedbacks

  7. On the characteristics of aerosol indirect effect based on dynamic regimes in global climate models

    DOE PAGES

    Zhang, Shipeng; Wang, Minghuai; Ghan, Steven J.; ...

    2016-03-04

    Aerosol–cloud interactions continue to constitute a major source of uncertainty for the estimate of climate radiative forcing. The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes, determined by monthly mean 500 hPa vertical pressure velocity (ω500), lower-tropospheric stability (LTS) and large-scale surface precipitation rate derived from several global climate models (GCMs), with a focus on liquid water path (LWP) response to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The LWP sensitivity to aerosol perturbation within dynamic regimes is found to exhibit a large spread among these GCMs. It is in regimes of strong large-scale ascentmore » (ω500  <  −25 hPa day−1) and low clouds (stratocumulus and trade wind cumulus) where the models differ most. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing is also found to differ significantly among different regimes. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing in ascending regimes is close to that in subsidence regimes, which indicates that regimes with strong large-scale ascent are as important as stratocumulus regimes in studying AIE. It is further shown that shortwave aerosol indirect forcing over regions with high monthly large-scale surface precipitation rate (> 0.1 mm day−1) contributes the most to the total aerosol indirect forcing (from 64 to nearly 100 %). Results show that the uncertainty in AIE is even larger within specific dynamical regimes compared to the uncertainty in its global mean values, pointing to the need to reduce the uncertainty in AIE in different dynamical regimes.« less

  8. Aerosol types and radiative forcing estimates over East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhawar, Rohini L.; Lee, Woo-Seop; Rahul, P. R. C.

    2016-09-01

    Using the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite data sets along with the CSIRO-MK 3.6.0 model simulations, we analyzed the aerosol optical depth (AOD) variability during March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA) along with their annual mean variability over East Asia for the period 2006-2012. The CALIPSO measurements correlated well with the MODIS measurements and the CSIRO-MK 3.6.0 model simulations over the spatial distribution patterns of the aerosols, but CALIPSO underestimated the magnitudes of the AOD. Maximum smoke aerosol loading is observed to occur during JJA, as a result of wind transport from Southern China while dust loading dominated during MAM via the transport from desert region. The vertical distribution profiles revealed that there is uniform distribution of smoke aerosols during both MAM and JJA, only differing at the altitude at which they peak; while the dust aerosols during MAM showed a significant distribution from the surface to 10 km altitude and JJA was marked with lower dust loading at the same altitudes. Both dust and smoke aerosols warm the atmosphere in MAM but due to the absorbing nature of smoke aerosols, they cause considerable cooling at the surface which is double when compared to the dust aerosols. The top of the atmosphere aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) due to smoke and dust aerosols is positive in MAM which indicates warming over East Asia. During MAM a consistent declining trend of the surface ARF due to smoke aerosols persisted over the last three decades as conspicuously evidenced from model analysis; the decline is ∼10 W/m2 from 1980 to 2012.

  9. The climate impacts of absorbing aerosols on and within the Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rasch, P.; Wang, H.; Ma, P.; Fast, J. D.; Wang, M.; Easter, R. C.; Liu, X.; Qian, Y.; Flanner, M. G.; Ghan, S.; Singh, B.

    2011-12-01

    Absorbing aerosols are receiving increasing attention as forcing agents in the climate system. By scattering and absorbing light they can reduce planetary albedo, particularly over bright surfaces (clouds, snow and ice). They also act as cloud condensation and/or ice nuclei, influencing the brightness, lifetime and precipitation properties of clouds. Atmospheric stability and primary circulation features respond to the changing vertical and horizontal patterns of heating, cooling, and surface fluxes produced by the aerosols, clouds and surface properties. These changes in meteorology have further impacts on aerosols and clouds producing a complex interplay between transport, forcings, and feedbacks involving absorbing aerosols and climate. The complexity of the processes and the interactions between them make it very challenging to represent aerosols realistically in large scale (global and regional) climate models. Simulations of important features of aerosols still contain easily identifiable biases. I will describe our efforts to identify the processes responsible for some of those biases and the deficiencies in model formulations that impede progress in treating aerosols and understanding their role in polar climate. I plan to summarize some studies performed with the NCAR CESM (global) and WRF-Chem (regional) Community models that examine the simulation sensitivity to treatments of physics, chemistry, and meteorology. Some of these simulations were allowed to evolve freely; others were strongly constrained to agree with observed meteorological fields. We have also altered the formulation of a number of the processes in the model to improve fidelity in the aerosol distributions. The parameterizations used in our global model have also been transferred to the regional model, allowing comparisons to be made between the simpler formulations used in the global model with more elaborate and costly formulations available in the regional model. The regional model can

  10. Final Report for LDRD Project ''A New Era of Research in Aerosol/Cloud/Climate Interactions at LLNL''

    SciTech Connect

    Chuang, C; Bergman, D J; Dignon, J E; Connell, P S

    2002-01-31

    of aerosol/cloud interactions on climate forcing [Chuang and Penner, 1995]. Our research has been recognized as one of a few studies attempting to quantify the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on climate in the IPCC Third Assessment Report [IPCC, 2001]. Our previous assessments of aerosol climate effects were based on a general circulation model (NCAR CCM1) fully coupled to a global tropospheric chemistry model (GRANTOUR). Both models, however, were developed more than a decade ago. The lack of advanced physics representation and techniques in our current models limits us from further exploring the interrelationship between aerosol, cloud, and climate variation. Our objective is to move to a new era of aerosol/cloud/climate modeling at LLNL by coupling the most advanced chemistry and climate models and by incorporating an aerosol microphysics module. This modeling capability will enable us to identify and analyze the responsible processes in aerosol/cloud/climate interactions and therefore, to improve the level of scientific understanding for aerosol climate effects. This state-of-the-art coupled models will also be used to address the relative importance of anthropogenic and natural emissions in the spatial pattern of aerosol climate forcing in order to assess the potential of human induced climate change.

  11. Simulated 2050 aviation radiative forcing from contrails and aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Chih-Chieh; Gettelman, Andrew

    2016-06-01

    The radiative forcing from aviation-induced cloudiness is investigated by using the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5) in the present (2006) and the future (through 2050). Global flight distance is projected to increase by a factor of 4 between 2006 and 2050. However, simulated contrail cirrus radiative forcing in 2050 can reach 87 mW m-2, an increase by a factor of 7 from 2006, and thus does not scale linearly with fuel emission mass. This is due to non-uniform regional increase in air traffic and different sensitivities for contrail radiative forcing in different regions. CAM5 simulations indicate that negative radiative forcing induced by the indirect effect of aviation sulfate aerosols on liquid clouds in 2050 can be as large as -160 mW m-2, an increase by a factor of 4 from 2006. As a result, the net 2050 radiative forcing of contrail cirrus and aviation aerosols may have a cooling effect on the planet. Aviation sulfate aerosols emitted at cruise altitude can be transported down to the lower troposphere, increasing the aerosol concentration, thus increasing the cloud drop number concentration and persistence of low-level clouds. Aviation black carbon aerosols produce a negligible net forcing globally in 2006 and 2050 in this model study. Uncertainties in the methodology and the modeling are significant and discussed in detail. Nevertheless, the projected percentage increase in contrail radiative forcing is important for future aviation impacts. In addition, the role of aviation aerosols in the cloud nucleation processes can greatly influence on the simulated radiative forcing from aircraft-induced cloudiness and even change its sign. Future research to confirm these results is necessary.

  12. Carbonaceous aerosol tracers in ice-cores record multi-decadal climate oscillations.

    PubMed

    Seki, Osamu; Kawamura, Kimitaka; Bendle, James A P; Izawa, Yusuke; Suzuki, Ikuko; Shiraiwa, Takayuki; Fujii, Yoshiyuki

    2015-09-28

    Carbonaceous aerosols influence the climate via direct and indirect effects on radiative balance. However, the factors controlling the emissions, transport and role of carbonaceous aerosols in the climate system are highly uncertain. Here we investigate organic tracers in ice cores from Greenland and Kamchatka and find that, throughout the period covered by the records (1550 to 2000 CE), the concentrations and composition of biomass burning-, soil bacterial- and plant wax- tracers correspond to Arctic and regional temperatures as well as the warm season Arctic Oscillation (AO) over multi-decadal time-scales. Specifically, order of magnitude decreases (increases) in abundances of ice-core organic tracers, likely representing significant decreases (increases) in the atmospheric loading of carbonaceous aerosols, occur during colder (warmer) phases in the high latitudinal Northern Hemisphere. This raises questions about causality and possible carbonaceous aerosol feedback mechanisms. Our work opens new avenues for ice core research. Translating concentrations of organic tracers (μg/kg-ice or TOC) from ice-cores, into estimates of the atmospheric loading of carbonaceous aerosols (μg/m(3)) combined with new model constraints on the strength and sign of climate forcing by carbonaceous aerosols should be a priority for future research.

  13. Carbonaceous aerosol tracers in ice-cores record multi-decadal climate oscillations

    PubMed Central

    Seki, Osamu; Kawamura, Kimitaka; Bendle, James A. P.; Izawa, Yusuke; Suzuki, Ikuko; Shiraiwa, Takayuki; Fujii, Yoshiyuki

    2015-01-01

    Carbonaceous aerosols influence the climate via direct and indirect effects on radiative balance. However, the factors controlling the emissions, transport and role of carbonaceous aerosols in the climate system are highly uncertain. Here we investigate organic tracers in ice cores from Greenland and Kamchatka and find that, throughout the period covered by the records (1550 to 2000 CE), the concentrations and composition of biomass burning-, soil bacterial- and plant wax- tracers correspond to Arctic and regional temperatures as well as the warm season Arctic Oscillation (AO) over multi-decadal time-scales. Specifically, order of magnitude decreases (increases) in abundances of ice-core organic tracers, likely representing significant decreases (increases) in the atmospheric loading of carbonaceous aerosols, occur during colder (warmer) phases in the high latitudinal Northern Hemisphere. This raises questions about causality and possible carbonaceous aerosol feedback mechanisms. Our work opens new avenues for ice core research. Translating concentrations of organic tracers (μg/kg-ice or TOC) from ice-cores, into estimates of the atmospheric loading of carbonaceous aerosols (μg/m3) combined with new model constraints on the strength and sign of climate forcing by carbonaceous aerosols should be a priority for future research. PMID:26411576

  14. Advances in Quantifying the Radiative Effects of Aerosol Particles on Climate from Airborne Field Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pilewskie, P.; Schmidt, K. S.; Coddington, O.; Bergstrom, R.; Redemann, J.

    2007-12-01

    In the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, large uncertainties persist in estimates of climate forcing by aerosol particles. One contributor to this uncertainty is the poorly quantified vertical distribution of solar radiation absorbed by aerosol particles, from the regional to global scale. Another is the spectral and spatial variability of surface albedo, an effect that can dominate the top-of-atmosphere perturbations due to aerosol scattering and absorption, particularly over land. Over the past three years a number of intensive airborne field experiments (ICARTT, MILAGRO, GoMACCS) have contributed significantly to our understanding of the impact of pollution outflow from urban-industrial centers on radiative forcing, using spectrally resolved radiometric measurements and novel observationally-based methods to derive forcing efficiency and flux divergence. We present an overview of some of the most significant advances in direct radiative forcing realized by these studies, and recommendations on where the greatest challenges remain. In addition we present findings from these experiments on the influence of aerosol particles on cloud radiative properties, a potentially greater effect but even more uncertain than direct radiative forcing.

  15. Evaluation of Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing in MIRAGE

    SciTech Connect

    Ghan, Steven J.; Laulainen, Nels S.; Easter, Richard C.; Wagener, Richard; Nemesure, Seth; Chapman, Elaine G.; Zhang, Yang; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2001-04-01

    A variety of measurements have been used to evaluate the treatment of aerosol radiative properties and radiative impacts of aerosols simulated by the Model for Integrated Research on Atmospheric Global Exchanges (MIRAGE). The treatment of water uptake in MIRAGE agrees with laboratory measurements for the aerosol components that have been measured. The simulated frequency of relative humidity near 100% is about twice that of European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts analyzed relative humidity. When the analyzed relative humidity is used to calculate aerosol water uptake in MIRAGE, the simulated aerosol optical depth agrees with most surface measurements after cloudy conditions are filtered out and differences between model and station elevations are accounted for. Simulated optical depths are low over sites in Brazil during the biomass burning season and over sites in central Canada during the wildfire season, which can be attributed to limitations in the organic and black car bon emissions data used by MIRAGE. The simulated aerosol optical depths are mostly within a factor of two of satellite estimates, but MIRAGE simulates excessively high aerosol optical depths off the east coast of the US and China, and too little dust off the coast of West Africa and in the Arabian Sea. The simulated distribution of single-scatter albedo is consistent with the available in situ surface measurements. The simulated sensitivity of radiative forcing to aerosol optical depth is consistent with estimates from measurements where available. The simulated spatial distribution of aerosol radiance is broadly consistent with estimates from satellite measurements, but with the same errors as the aerosol optical depth. The simulated direct forcing is within the uncertainty of estimates from measurements in the North Atlantic.

  16. Evaluation of Aerosol Indirect Radiative Forcing in MIRAGE

    SciTech Connect

    Ghan, Steven J.; Easter, Richard C.; Hudson, J D.; Breon, Francois

    2001-04-01

    We evaluate aerosol indirect radiative forcing simulated by the Model for Integrated Research on Atmospheric Global Exchanges (MIRAGE). Although explicit measurements of aerosol indirect radiative forcing do not exist, measurements of many of the links between aerosols and indirect radiative forcing are available and can be used for evaluation. These links include the cloud condensation nuclei concentration, the ratio of droplet number to aerosol number, the droplet number concentration, the column droplet number, the column cloud water, the droplet effective radius, the cloud optical depth, the correlation between cloud albedo and droplet effective radius, and the cloud radiative forcing. The CCN concentration simulated by MIRAGE agrees with measurements for supersaturations larger than 0.1%, but not for smaller supersaturations. Simulated droplet number concentrations are too low in most, but not all, locations with available measurements, even when normalized by aerosol number. MIRA GE correctly simulates the higher droplet numbers and smaller droplet sizes over continents and in the Northern Hemisphere. Biases in column cloud water, cloud optical depth, and shortwave cloud radiative forcing are evident in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and in the subtropical oceans. MIRAGE correctly simulates a negative correlation between cloud albedo and droplet size over remote oceans for cloud optical depths greater than 15 and a positive correlation for cloud optical depths less than 15, but fails to simulate a negative correlation over land.

  17. Potential climate effect of mineral aerosols over West Africa. Part I: model validation and contemporary climate evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ji, Zhenming; Wang, Guiling; Pal, Jeremy S.; Yu, Miao

    2016-02-01

    Mineral dusts present in the atmosphere can play an important role in climate over West Africa and surrounding regions. However, current understanding regarding how dust aerosols influence climate of West Africa is very limited. In this study, a regional climate model is used to investigate the potential climatic impacts of dust aerosols. Two sets of simulations driven by reanalysis and Earth System Model boundary conditions are performed with and without the representation of dust processes. The model, regardless of the boundary forcing, captures the spatial and temporal variability of the aerosol optical depth and surface concentration. The shortwave radiative forcing of dust is negative at the surface and positive in the atmosphere, with greater changes in the spring and summer. The presence of mineral dusts causes surface cooling and lower troposphere heating, resulting in a stabilization effect and reduction in precipitation in the northern portion of the monsoon close to the dust emissions region. This results in an enhancement of precipitation to the south. While dusts cause the lower troposphere to stabilize, upper tropospheric cooling makes the region more prone to intense deep convection as is evident by a simulated increase in extreme precipitation. In a companion paper, the impacts of dust emissions on future West African climate are investigated.

  18. The Long-Standing Dynamical Impacts of Climate Engineering following the Injection of Stratospheric Sulphate Aerosol

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Osprey, S. M.; Gray, L. J.; Haywood, J.; Jones, A.

    2014-12-01

    Discussions of our response to climate change invariably involve issues of adaptation and mitigation. The former presupposes unavoidable climate consequences and recognises a need to lessen their impact. The latter attempts to lessen the effects of increasing greenhouse gases (GHG) by (1) reducing GHG emission, (2) creating CO2 sinks (e.g. carbon sequestration) or by blocking the effects of solar radiation (solar radiation management - SRM). The SPICE project was set up to investigate the feasibility of implementing a practical method of SRM using the stratospheric injection of aerosols. SPICE remit includes: engineering design for the delivery of stratospheric aerosol, laboratory measurements for characterising the properties of optimal aerosol, and modelling studies looking into the parameterisation and impact of stratospheric aerosols within a state-of-the-art global climate model. The project has also pressed for the need for governance of climate engineering research. We describe idealised experiments investigating the environmental impact following sulphate aerosol injection into the tropical low-mid stratosphere. We compare a geo-engineering scenario (GeoMIP G4), which includes a constant injection rate of SO2 (5Tg/year) beginning at 2020, against a control simulation of increasing greenhouse gas forcing, as outlined by the CMIP5 RCP4.5 scenario. We use the well-documented stratosphere-resolving Hadley Centre model, which has been employed in previous CMIP5 and climate engineering studies. We examine for high-latitude impacts following tropical aerosol injection, and in particular the Holton-Tan effect observed in the wintertime extratropical stratosphere. These dynamical sensitivities provide an important link, bridging tropical stratosphere forcing with the near-surface response often seen at high latitudes.

  19. New Satellite Measurements of Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing from MODIS, MISR, and POLDER

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kaufman, Y.

    2000-01-01

    New set of satellites, MODIS and MISR launched on EOS-Terra and POLDER launched on ADEOS-1, and scheduled for ADEOS-II and PARASOL in orbit with EOS-AQUA, open exciting opportunities to measure aerosol and their radiative forcing of climate. Each of these instruments has a different approach to invert remote sensing data to derive the aerosol properties. MODIS is using wide spectral range 0.47-2.1 micron. MISR is using narrower spectral range (0.44 to 0.87 micron) but observing the same spot from 9 different angles along the satellite track. POLDER using similar wavelengths, uses two dimensional view with a wide angle optics and adds polarization to the inversion process. Among these instruments, we expect to measure the global distribution of aerosol, to distinguish small pollution particles from large particles from deserts and ocean spray. We shall try to measure the aerosol absorption of solar radiation, and their refractive index that indicates the effect of liquid water on the aerosol size and interaction with sunlight. The radiation field measured by these instruments in variety of wavelengths and angles, is also used to derive the effect of the aerosol on reflection of sunlight spectral fluxes to space. When combined with flux measurements at the ground, it gives a complete characterization of the effect of aerosol on solar illumination, heating in the atmosphere and reflection to space.

  20. Aerosol climate effects and air quality impacts from 1980 to 2030

    SciTech Connect

    Menon, Surabi; Menon, Surabi; Unger, Nadine; Koch, Dorothy; Francis, Jennifer; Garrett, Tim; Sednev, Igor; Shindell, Drew; Streets, David

    2007-11-26

    We investigate aerosol effects on climate for 1980, 1995 (meant to reflect present-day) and 2030 using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model coupled to an on-line aerosol source and transport model with interactive oxidant and aerosol chemistry. Aerosols simulated include sulfates, organic matter (OM), black carbon (BC), sea-salt and dust and additionally, the amount of tropospheric ozone is calculated, allowing us to estimate both changes to air quality and climate for different time periods and emission amounts. We include both the direct aerosol effect and indirect aerosol effects for liquid-phase clouds. Future changes for the 2030 A1B scenario are examined, focusing on the Arctic and Asia, since changes are pronounced in these regions. Our results for the different time periods include both emission changes and physical climate changes. We find that the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) has a large impact on photochemical processing, decreasing ozone amount and ozone forcing, especially for the future (2030-1995). Ozone forcings increase from 0 to 0.12 Wm{sup -2} and the total aerosol forcing increases from -0.10 Wm{sup -2} to -0.94 Wm{sup -2} (AIE increases from -0.13 to -0.68 Wm{sup -2}) for 1995-1980 versus 2030-1995. Over the Arctic we find that compared to ozone and the direct aerosol effect, the AIE contributes the most to net radiative flux changes. The AIE, calculated for 1995-1980, is positive (1.0 Wm{sup -2}), but the magnitude decreases (-0.3Wm{sup -2}) considerably for the future scenario. Over Asia, we evaluate the role of biofuel and transportation-based emissions (for BC and OM) via a scenario (2030A) that includes a projected increase (factor of two) in biofuel and transport-based emissions for 2030 A1B over Asia. Projected changes from present-day due to the 2030A emissions versus 2030 A1B are a factor of 4 decrease in summertime precipitation in Asia. Our results are sensitive to emissions used. Uncertainty in present

  1. Using Aerocom Results to Constrain Black Carbon, Sulphate and Total Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Their Uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samset, B. H.; Myhre, G.

    2014-12-01

    Aerosols affect the global radiative balance, and hence the climate, through a multitude of processes. However, even the direct interaction of aerosols with incoming sunlight is at present insufficiently constrained. Here we compare the output of 15 recent aerosol climate models (AeroCom Phase II), both column averaged and vertically resolved. Through a simple MonteCarlo approach, we show that the model based total anthropogenic aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF) uncertainty may be underestimated. Constraining modelled vertical profiles of black carbon (BC) concentration to aircraft measurements in remote regions, we further show that recent BC DRF estimates may be biased high. A short modelled BC lifetime is indicated as a necessary, though not sufficient, requirement for reproducing measurements. Finally, modeled sulphate aerosol DRF is discussed in the context of differences in representation of humidity and hygroscopic growth in the models.

  2. Evaluation of a size-resolved aerosol model based on satellite and ground observations and its implication on aerosol forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Xiaoyan; Yu, Fangqun

    2016-04-01

    The latest AeroCom phase II experiments have showed a large diversity in the simulations of aerosol concentrations, size distribution, vertical profile, and optical properties among 16 detailed global aerosol microphysics models, which contribute to the large uncertainty in the predicted aerosol radiative forcing and possibly induce the distinct climate change in the future. In the last few years, we have developed and improved a global size-resolved aerosol model (Yu and Luo, 2009; Ma et al., 2012; Yu et al., 2012), GEOS-Chem-APM, which is a prognostic multi-type, multi-component, size-resolved aerosol microphysics model, including state-of-the-art nucleation schemes and condensation of low volatile secondary organic compounds from successive oxidation aging. The model is one of 16 global models for AeroCom phase II and participated in a couple of model inter-comparison experiments. In this study, we employed multi-year aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from 2004 to 2012 taken from ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) measurements and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) satellite retrievals to evaluate the performance of the GEOS-Chem-APM in predicting aerosol optical depth, including spatial distribution, reginal variation and seasonal variabilities. Compared to the observations, the modelled AOD is overall good over land, but quite low over ocean possibly due to low sea salt emission in the model and/or higher AOD in satellite retrievals, specifically MODIS and MISR. We chose 72 AERONET sites having at least 36 months data available and representative of high spatial domain to compare with the model and satellite data. Comparisons in various representative regions show that the model overall agrees well in the major anthropogenic emission regions, such as Europe, East Asia and North America. Relative to the observations, the modelled AOD is

  3. Aerosol physical properties and their impact on climate change processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strzalkowska, Agata; Zielinski, Tymon; Petelski, Tomasz; Makuch, Przemyslaw; Pakszys, Paulina; Markuszewski, Piotr; Piskozub, Jacek; Drozdowska, Violetta; Gutowska, Dorota; Rozwadowska, Anna

    2013-04-01

    Characterizing aerosols involves the specification of not only their spatial and temporal distributions but their multi-component composition, particle size distribution and physical properties as well. Due to their light attenuation and scattering properties, aerosols influence radiance measured by satellite for ocean color remote sensing. Studies of marine aerosol production and transport are important for many earth sciences such as cloud physics, atmospheric optics, environmental pollution studies, and interaction between ocean and atmosphere. It was one of the reasons for the growth in the number of research programs dealing with marine aerosols. Sea salt aerosols are among the most abundant components of the atmospheric aerosol, and thus it exerts a strong influence on radiation, cloud formation, meteorology and chemistry of the marine atmosphere. An accurate understanding and description of these mechanisms is crucial to modeling climate and climate change. This work provides information on combined aerosol studies made with lidars and sun photometers onboard the ship and in different coastal areas. We concentrate on aerosol optical thickness and its variations with aerosol advections into the study area. We pay special attention to the problem of proper data collection and analyses techniques. We showed that in order to detect the dynamics of potential aerosol composition changes it is necessary to use data from different stations where measurements are made using the same techniques. The combination of such information with air mass back-trajectories and data collected at stations located on the route of air masses provides comprehensive picture of aerosol variations in the study area both vertically and horizontally. Acknowledgements: The support for this study was provided by the project Satellite Monitoring of the Baltic Sea Environment - SatBałtyk founded by European Union through European Regional Development Fund contract No. POIG 01

  4. Sulfate Aerosol Control of Tropical Atlantic Climate over the Twentieth Century

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chang, C.-Y.; Chiang, J. C. H.; Wehner, M. F.; Friedman, A. R.; Ruedy, R.

    2011-01-01

    The tropical Atlantic interhemispheric gradient in sea surface temperature significantly influences the rainfall climate of the tropical Atlantic sector, including droughts over West Africa and Northeast Brazil. This gradient exhibits a secular trend from the beginning of the twentieth century until the 1980s, with stronger warming in the south relative to the north. This trend behavior is on top of a multi-decadal variation associated with the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation. A similar long-term forced trend is found in a multimodel ensemble of forced twentieth-century climate simulations. Through examining the distribution of the trend slopes in the multimodel twentieth-century and preindustrial models, the authors conclude that the observed trend in the gradient is unlikely to arise purely from natural variations; this study suggests that at least half the observed trend is a forced response to twentieth-century climate forcings. Further analysis using twentieth-century single-forcing runs indicates that sulfate aerosol forcing is the predominant cause of the multimodel trend. The authors conclude that anthropogenic sulfate aerosol emissions, originating predominantly from the Northern Hemisphere, may have significantly altered the tropical Atlantic rainfall climate over the twentieth century

  5. WRF-Chem Simulations of Aerosols and Anthropogenic Aerosol Radiative Forcing in East Asia

    SciTech Connect

    Gao, Yi; Zhao, Chun; Liu, Xiaohong; Zhang, Meigen; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2014-08-01

    This study aims to provide a first comprehensive evaluation of WRF-Chem for modeling aerosols and anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing (RF) over East Asia. Several numerical experiments were conducted from November 2007 to December 2008. Comparison between model results and observations shows that the model can generally reproduce the observed spatial distributions of aerosol concentration, aerosol optical depth (AOD) and single scattering albedo (SSA) from measurements at different sites, including the relatively higher aerosol concentration and AOD over East China and the relatively lower AOD over Southeast Asia, Korean, and Japan. The model also depicts the seasonal variation and transport of pollutions over East Asia. Particulate matter of 10 um or less in the aerodynamic diameter (PM10), black carbon (BC), sulfate (SO42-), nitrate (NO3-) and ammonium (NH4+) concentrations are higher in spring than other seasons in Japan due to the pollutant transport from polluted area of East Asia. AOD is high over Southwest and Central China in winter, spring and autumn and over North China in summer while is low over South China in summer due to monsoon precipitation. SSA is lowest in winter and highest in summer. The model also captures the dust events at the Zhangye site in the semi-arid region of China. Anthropogenic aerosol RF is estimated to range from -5 to -20 W m-2 over land and -20 to -40 W m-2 over ocean at the top of atmosphere (TOA), 5 to 30 W m-2 in the atmosphere (ATM) and -15 to -40 W m-2 at the bottom (BOT). The warming effect of anthropogenic aerosol in ATM results from BC aerosol while the negative aerosol RF at TOA is caused by scattering aerosols such as SO4 2-, NO3 - and NH4+. Positive BC RF at TOA compensates 40~50% of the TOA cooling associated with anthropogenic aerosol.

  6. Shortwave and longwave radiative forcings of aerosols depending on the vertical stratification of aerosols and clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oikawa, Eiji; Suzuki, Kentaroh; Nakajima, Teruyuki; Nishizawa, Tomoaki

    2017-02-01

    We investigate four scenarios for estimating shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) direct aerosol radiative forcing (DARF) at the top of atmosphere (TOA) using the global data set of the vertical distributions for aerosols and clouds of CALIPSO and CloudSat Level 2 products. One scenario is clear-sky (cloud-free) condition and three scenarios are cloudy-sky condition: the case that aerosols exists above clouds (AAC case), and the case that aerosols exist below high clouds such as cirrus, but without clouds below the aerosol layers (ABC case), and the case that aerosols are not observed in cloudy-sky condition. In clear-sky and ABC cases, aerosols mainly scatter sunlight and SWDARFs show negative values, except for bright surfaces, such as desert regions and the North and South Poles. In AAC case, aerosols absorb the reflected light from underlying low-level clouds to TOA, so that SWDARF at TOA shows positive value. Mineral dust absorbs the Earth's radiation and LWDARF indicates strong positive over Saharan and Arabian deserts. The global mean values of SW plus LW DARFs are -2.77, -0.77, and -1.40 Wm-2 under clear-sky, cloudy-sky, and all-sky conditions.

  7. The Impact of Desert Dust Aerosol Radiative Forcing on Global and West African Precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jordan, A.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Dezfuli, A. K.

    2015-12-01

    Desert dust aerosols exert a radiative forcing on the atmosphere, influencing atmospheric temperature structure and modifying radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and surface. As dust aerosols perturb radiative fluxes, the atmosphere responds by altering both energy and moisture dynamics, with potentially significant impacts on regional and global precipitation. Global Climate Model (GCM) experiments designed to characterize these processes have yielded a wide range of results, owing to both the complex nature of the system and diverse differences across models. Most model results show a general decrease in global precipitation, but regional results vary. Here, we compare simulations from GFDL's CM2Mc GCM with multiple other model experiments from the literature in order to investigate mechanisms of radiative impact and reasons for GCM differences on a global and regional scale. We focus on West Africa, a region of high interannual rainfall variability that is a source of dust and that neighbors major Sahara Desert dust sources. As such, changes in West African climate due to radiative forcing of desert dust aerosol have serious implications for desertification feedbacks. Our CM2Mc results show net cooling of the planet at TOA and surface, net warming of the atmosphere, and significant increases in precipitation over West Africa during the summer rainy season. These results differ from some previous GCM studies, prompting comparative analysis of desert dust parameters across models. This presentation will offer quantitative analysis of differences in dust aerosol parameters, aerosol optical properties, and overall particle burden across GCMs, and will characterize the contribution of model differences to the uncertainty of forcing and climate response affecting West Africa.

  8. Shortlived climate compounds: Their distribution and contribution to climate forcing (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isaksen, I. S.

    2010-12-01

    Increases of methane, tropospheric ozone and black carbon have augmented the radiative forcing of carbon dioxide by 65%. Other compounds such as sulphate, nitrate and organic aerosols, cause a significant negative radiative forcing. Emission of short-lived pollutants, such as nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and volatile organic compounds, indirectly affect the abundances of several of the short-lived climate compounds (warm or cool climate), through chemical processes in the atmosphere. Quantifying the impact of short-lived species on Earth’s radiative forcing is therefore complex and connected with significant uncertainties. Many of the climate compounds and their precursors are unevenly mixed in the atmosphere, and concentrated close to their sources. This fact combined with physical and chemical heterogeneities in the atmosphere, means that the impact of short-lived species changes significantly with location or time. Chemically active climate compounds are either primary compounds like methane (CH4), removed by oxidation in the atmosphere, or secondary compounds like ozone (O3), sulphate and organic aerosols, both formed and removed in the atmosphere. The distribution and changes of these compounds are likely to be affected by man-induced climate-chemistry interaction, which is a two-way process: Emissions of pollutants change the atmospheric composition contributing to climate change through the aforementioned climate components, and climate change, through changes in temperature, dynamics, the hydrological cycle, atmospheric stability, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions, affects the atmospheric composition and oxidation processes in the troposphere. It is only recently that the importance of such interactions has been studied. The state of the art of distribution and changes in short lived climate compounds will be presented. In particular the progress in our understanding of processes of importance for climate-chemistry interactions, and their

  9. Indian monsoon and the elevated-heat-pump mechanism in a coupled aerosol-climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Errico, Miriam; Cagnazzo, Chiara; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Lau, William K. M.; Hardenberg, Jost; Fierli, Federico; Cherchi, Annalisa

    2015-09-01

    A coupled aerosol-atmosphere-ocean-sea ice climate model is used to explore the interaction between aerosols and the Indian summer monsoon precipitation on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. Results show that when increased aerosol loading is found on the Himalayas slopes in the premonsoon period (April-May), intensification of early monsoon rainfall over India and increased low-level westerly flow follow, in agreement with the elevated-heat-pump mechanism. The increase in rainfall during the early monsoon season has a cooling effect on the land surface. In the same period, enhanced surface cooling may also be amplified through solar dimming by more cloudiness and aerosol loading, via increased dust transported by low-level westerly flow. The surface cooling causes subsequent reduction in monsoon rainfall in July-August over India. The time-lagged nature of the reasonably realistic response of the model to aerosol forcing suggests that absorbing aerosols, besides their potential key roles in impacting monsoon water cycle and climate, may influence the seasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon.

  10. Climate-relevant physical properties of molecular constituents for isoprene-derived secondary organic aerosol material

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Upshur, M. A.; Strick, B. F.; McNeill, V. F.; Thomson, R. J.; Geiger, F. M.

    2014-10-01

    Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) particles, formed from gas-phase biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), contribute large uncertainties to the radiative forcing that is associated with aerosols in the climate system. Reactive uptake of surface-active organic oxidation products of BVOCs at the gas-aerosol interface can potentially decrease the overall aerosol surface tension and therefore influence their propensity to act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Here, we synthesize and measure some climate-relevant physical properties of SOA particle constituents consisting of the isoprene oxidation products α-, δ-, and cis- and trans-β-IEPOX (isoprene epoxide), as well as syn- and anti-2-methyltetraol. Following viscosity measurements, we use octanol-water partition coefficients to quantify the relative hydrophobicity of the oxidation products while dynamic surface tension measurements indicate that aqueous solutions of α- and trans-β-IEPOX exhibit significant surface tension depression. We hypothesize that the surface activity of these compounds may enhance aerosol CCN activity, and that trans-β-IEPOX may be highly relevant for surface chemistry of aerosol particles relative to other IEPOX isomers.

  11. Impact of springtime biomass-burning aerosols on radiative forcing over northern Thailand during the 7SEAS campaign

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pani, Shantanu Kumar; Wang, Sheng-Hsiang; Lin, Neng-Huei; Lee, Chung-Te; Tsay, Si-Chee; Holben, Brent; Janjai, Serm; Hsiao, Ta-Chih; Chuang, Ming-Tung; Chantara, Somporn

    2016-04-01

    Biomass-burning (BB) aerosols are the significant contributor to the regional/global aerosol loading and radiation budgets. BB aerosols affect the radiation budget of the earth and atmosphere by scattering and absorbing directly the incoming solar and outgoing terrestrial radiation. These aerosols can exert either cooling or warming effect on climate, depending on the balance between scattering and absorption. BB activities in the form of wildland forest fires and agricultural crop burning are very pronounced in the Indochina peninsular regions in Southeast Asia mainly in spring (late February to April) season. The region of interest includes Doi Ang Khang (19.93° N, 99.05° E, 1536 msl) in northern Thailand, as part of the Seven South East Asian Studies (7-SEAS)/BASELInE (Biomass-burning Aerosols & Stratocumulus Environment: Lifecycles & Interactions Experiment) campaign in 2013. In this study, for the first time, the direct aerosol radiative effects of BB aerosols over near-source BB emissions, during the peak loading spring season, in northern Indochina were investigated by using ground-based physical, chemical, and optical properties of aerosols as well as the aerosol optical and radiative transfer models. Information on aerosol parameters in the field campaign was used in the OPAC (Optical Properties of Aerosols and Clouds) model to estimate various optical properties corresponding to aerosol compositions. Clear-sky shortwave direct aerosol radiative effects were further estimated with a raditive transfer model SBDART (Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer). The columnar aerosol optical depth (AOD500) was found to be ranged from 0.26 to 1.13 (with the mean value 0.71 ± 0.24). Fine-mode (fine mode fraction ≈0.98, angstrom exponent ≈1.8) and significantly absorbing aerosols (columnar single-scattering albedo ≈0.89, asymmetry-parameter ≈0.67 at 441 nm wavelength) dominated in this region. Water soluble and black carbon (BC) aerosols mainly

  12. Aerosols and Clouds: In Cahoots to Change Climate

    ScienceCinema

    Berg, Larry

    2016-07-12

    Key knowledge gaps persist despite advances in the scientific understanding of how aerosols and clouds evolve and affect climate. The Two-Column Aerosol Project, or TCAP, was designed to provide a detailed set of observations to tackle this area of unknowns. Led by PNNL atmospheric scientist Larry Berg, ARM's Climate Research Facility was deployed in Cape Cod, Massachusetts for the 12-month duration of TCAP, which came to a close in June 2013. "We are developing new tools to look at particle chemistry, like our mass spectrometer used in TCAP that can tell us the individual chemical composition of an aerosol," said Berg. "Then, we'll run our models and compare it with the data that we have to make sure we're getting correct answers and make sure our climate models are reflecting the best information."

  13. Aerosols and Clouds: In Cahoots to Change Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Berg, Larry

    2014-03-29

    Key knowledge gaps persist despite advances in the scientific understanding of how aerosols and clouds evolve and affect climate. The Two-Column Aerosol Project, or TCAP, was designed to provide a detailed set of observations to tackle this area of unknowns. Led by PNNL atmospheric scientist Larry Berg, ARM's Climate Research Facility was deployed in Cape Cod, Massachusetts for the 12-month duration of TCAP, which came to a close in June 2013. "We are developing new tools to look at particle chemistry, like our mass spectrometer used in TCAP that can tell us the individual chemical composition of an aerosol," said Berg. "Then, we'll run our models and compare it with the data that we have to make sure we're getting correct answers and make sure our climate models are reflecting the best information."

  14. Radiative flux and forcing parameterization error in aerosol-free clear skies

    SciTech Connect

    Pincus, Robert; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Ackerman, Andrew S.; Baek, Sunghye; Brath, Manfred; Buehler, Stefan A.; Cady-Pereira, Karen E.; Cole, Jason N. S.; Dufresne, Jean -Louis; Kelley, Maxwell; Li, Jiangnan; Manners, James; Paynter, David J.; Roehrig, Romain; Sekiguchi, Miho; Schwarzkopf, Daniel M.

    2015-07-03

    This article reports on the accuracy in aerosol- and cloud-free conditions of the radiation parameterizations used in climate models. Accuracy is assessed relative to observationally validated reference models for fluxes under present-day conditions and forcing (flux changes) from quadrupled concentrations of carbon dioxide. Agreement among reference models is typically within 1 W/m2, while parameterized calculations are roughly half as accurate in the longwave and even less accurate, and more variable, in the shortwave. Absorption of shortwave radiation is underestimated by most parameterizations in the present day and has relatively large errors in forcing. Error in present-day conditions is essentially unrelated to error in forcing calculations. Recent revisions to parameterizations have reduced error in most cases. As a result, a dependence on atmospheric conditions, including integrated water vapor, means that global estimates of parameterization error relevant for the radiative forcing of climate change will require much more ambitious calculations.

  15. Spatial patterns of substantial climate impact from anthropogenic aerosols in the early instrumental period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Undorf, Sabine; Bollasina, Massimo; Hegerl, Gabriele

    2016-04-01

    While many aspects of climate variation in the early instrumental period (1860-1950) are still unexplained, for instance the early twentieth-century warming from the 1910s to the 1940s, the role of anthropogenic aerosols in this period has been overlooked. Yet, the period is also an interesting case study to isolate aerosol impacts since it is characterised by the increase of North American and especially European aerosol emissions concurrently with negligible Asian emissions and relatively low carbon dioxide concentrations. We thus analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of aerosol impact for this period in available observations (NOAA 20th-century reanalysis, etc.) and historical single-forcing and all-forcing experiments with state-of-the-art CMIP5 models. We make use of coupled empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) applied to surface temperature -the most reliable variable in observations- and different aerosol indicating variables such as aerosol optical depth and short-wave downward radiation, some of which include aerosol indirect effects. The principal components of the most important EOFs are then regressed onto sea level pressure, winds, and other variables to identify associated circulation patterns. A decomposition into multi-decadal and longer time scales is performed by filtering the data prior to the analysis. Our analysis reveals both statistically significant local and non-local aerosol impact and identifies circulation states associated with the temperature response. The results are consistent across different aerosol variables, and show a strong non-local response as well as specific differences between time scales. We find a distinctive circulation pattern which strongly resembles observations and might explain the observed early twentieth century warming in the Arctic.

  16. Modeling the Relationships Between Aerosol Properties and the Direct and Indirect Effects of Aerosols on Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Toon, Owen B.

    1994-01-01

    Aerosols may affect climate directly by scattering and absorbing visible and infrared energy, They may also affect climate indirectly by modifying the properties of clouds through microphysical processes, and by altering abundances of radiatively important gases through heterogeneous chemistry. Researchers understand which aerosol properties control the direct effect of aerosols on the radiation budget. Unfortunately, despite an abundance of data on certain types of aerosols, much work remains to be done to determine the values of these properties. For instance we have little idea about the global distribution, seasonal variation, or interannual variability of the aerosol optical depth. Also we do not know the visible light absorption properties of tropical aerosols which may contain much debris from slash and burn agriculture. A positive correlation between aerosol concentrations and albedos of marine stratus clouds is observed, and the causative microphysics is understood. However, models suggest that it is difficult to produce new particles in the marine boundary layer. Some modelers have suggested that the particles in the marine boundary layer may originate in the free troposphere and be transported into the boundary layer. Others argue that the aerosols are created in the marine boundary layer. There are no data linking aerosol concentration and cirrus cloud albedo, and models suggest cirrus properties may not be very sensitive to aerosol abundance. There is clear evidence of a radiatively significant change in the global lower stratospheric ozone abundance during the past few decades. These changes are caused by heterogeneous chemical reactions occurring on the surfaces of particles. The rates of these reactions depend upon the chemical composition of the particles. Although rapid advances in understanding heterogeneous chemistry have been made, much remains to be done.

  17. Aerosol contribution to the rapid warming of near-term climate under RCP 2.6

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chalmers, N.; Highwood, E. J.; Hawkins, E.; Sutton, R.; Wilcox, L. J.

    2012-09-01

    The importance of aerosol emissions for near term climate projections is investigated by analysing simulations with the HadGEM2-ES model under two different emissions scenarios: RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. It is shown that the near term warming projected under RCP2.6 is greater than under RCP4.5, even though the greenhouse gas forcing is lower. Rapid and substantial reductions in sulphate aerosol emissions due to a reduction of coal burning in RCP2.6 lead to a reduction in the negative shortwave forcing due to aerosol direct and indirect effects. Indirect effects play an important role over the northern hemisphere oceans, especially the subtropical northeastern Pacific where an anomaly of 5-10 Wm-2 develops. The pattern of surface temperature change is consistent with the expected response to this surface radiation anomaly, whilst also exhibiting features that reflect redistribution of energy, and feedbacks, within the climate system. These results demonstrate the importance of aerosol emissions as a key source of uncertainty in near term projections of global and regional climate.

  18. Non-Kyoto Radiative Forcing in Long-Run Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Rose, Steven K.; Richels, Richard G.; Smith, Steven J.; Riahi, Keywan; Stefler, Jessica; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2014-04-27

    Climate policies designed to achieve climate change objectives must consider radiative forcing from the Kyoto greenhouse gas, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone. Net positive forcing leads to global average temperature increases. Modeling of non-Kyoto forcing is a relatively new component of climate management scenarios. Five of the nineteen models in the EMF-27 Study model both Kyoto and non-Kyoto forcing. This paper describes and assesses current non-Kyoto radiative forcing modeling within these integrated assessment models. The study finds negative forcing from aerosols masking significant positive forcing in reference non-climate policy projections. There are however large differences across models in projected non-Kyoto emissions and forcing, with differences stemming from differences in relationships between Kyoto and non-Kyoto emissions and fundamental differences in modeling structure and assumptions. Air pollution and non-Kyoto forcing decline in the climate policy scenarios. However, non-Kyoto forcing appears to be influencing mitigation results, including allowable carbon dioxide emissions, and further evaluation is merited. Overall, there is substantial uncertainty related to non-Kyoto forcing that must be considered.

  19. Climate Forcing by Black and Organic Carbon: Central Values and Uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bond, T. C.; Rasch, P. J.; Collins, W. D.; Streets, D. G.

    2002-12-01

    Several recent studies have estimated climate forcing by carbonaceous aerosols using available emission inventories. It is widely acknowledged that emission rates and other inputs to forcing calculations are uncertain, but estimates of confidence intervals have not been calculated rigorously. We present a preliminary analysis of minimum uncertainties in climate forcing by carbonaceous aerosols. Our forcing estimates are calculated using a global chemistry and transport model (MATCH) in conjunction with recently-developed emission inventories and radiation codes. The emission inventory [Bond et al., 2002] provides low, central and high estimates for each 1°\\x1°\\ grid cell that reflect uncertainties in fuel use and emission factors. Emissions are especially uncertain in regions where residential combustion contributes heavily, particularly in Asia and Eastern Europe. Other parameters varied are the time for transformation between hydrophobic and hydrophilic aerosol, the wet scavenging rate and the imaginary index of refraction. Variation in forcing due to the mixing state of the aerosol, also known to have important effects on climate forcing [Jacobson, 2001], is not included in this study and would increase the uncertainty. References Bond, T. C., D. G. Streets, S. M. Fernandes, S. M. Nelson, J.-H. Woo, and Z. Klimont, A Technology-Based Global Inventory of Black and Organic Carbon Emissions from Combustion, manuscript in preparation. Jacobson M. Z., Strong radiative heating due to the mixing state of black carbon in atmospheric aerosols, Nature 409, 695-697, 2001.

  20. Short-Lived Climate Forcers - The Connections Between Emissions, Forcing, and Mitigation Potential (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, S.

    2010-12-01

    Methane, tropospheric ozone, and aerosols have a substantial global and regional influence on climate in addition to the impact of ozone and aerosols on health and ecosystems. These climate forcing agents are linked both though common emissions sources and atmospheric chemical processes. The magnitude and regional distribution of these forcings have changed substantially over the past and is expected to continue to change into the future. While aerosols have had a substantial impact on climate over the past century, by the end of the 21st century aerosols will likely be only a minor contributor to radiative forcing. Overall, reductions in aerosol emissions lead to a net warming due to the net negative aerosol forcing, although some mitigation benefits may be possible in specific sub-sectors. While the emissions leading to enhanced tropospheric ozone levels are short-lived, mitigation has proved to be difficult due to the ubiquity of major emission sources, particularly surface transportation vehicles. From a mitigation standpoint, therefore, tropospheric ozone might be considered as more of a long-term pollutant. This presentation will review these links using historical data and future projections and discuss the implications for mitigation. The implications of these links for atmospheric chemistry analysis, and the potential for using ACC-MIP results to improve integrated assessment modeling and analysis, will be discussed.

  1. Climate response of the South Asian monsoon system to anthropogenic aerosols

    SciTech Connect

    Ganguly, Dilip; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Hailong; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2012-07-13

    The equilibrium climate response to the total effects (direct, indirect and semi-direct effects) of aerosols arising from anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions on the South Asian summer monsoon system is studied using a coupled atmosphere-slab ocean model. Our results suggest that anthropogenic and biomass burning aerosols generally induce a reduction in mean summer monsoon precipitation over most parts of the Indian subcontinent, strongest along the western coastline of the Indian peninsula and eastern Nepal region, but modest increases also occur over the north western part of the subcontinent. While most of the noted reduction in precipitation is triggered by increased emissions of aerosols from anthropogenic activities, modest increases in the north west are mostly associated with decreases in local emissions of aerosols from forest fire and grass fire sources. Anthropogenic aerosols from outside Asia also contribute to the overall reduction in precipitation but the dominant contribution comes from aerosol sources within Asia. Local emissions play a more important role in the total rainfall response to anthropogenic aerosol sources during the early monsoon period, whereas both local as well as remote emissions of aerosols play almost equally important roles during the later part of the monsoon period. While precipitation responses are primarily driven by local aerosol forcing, regional surface temperature changes over the region are strongly influenced by anthropogenic aerosols from sources further away (non-local changes). Changes in local anthropogenic organic and black carbon emissions by as much as a factor of two (preserving their ratio) produce the same basic signatures in the model's summer monsoon temperature and precipitation responses.

  2. Aerosol impacts on climate and environment over East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakata, M.; Sano, I.; Mukai, S.

    2014-12-01

    It is well known that the aerosol distribution in East Asia is complex due to both the increasing emissions of the anthropogenic aerosols associated with economic growth and the behavior of natural dusts. Therefore, detailed observations of atmospheric particles in East Asian are important. It is concerned about the change of concentration of aerosols causes various effects on the climate by directly and indirectly modifying the optical properties and lifetimes of cloud. In addition to radiation budget change, aerosol has a significant potential to change cloud and precipitation. These circulation fields change influence on emission of natural aerosols such as dust aerosols and sea salt aerosols. Also, air pollution in megacities in East Asia has become a serious problem. Especially problematic are fine particles called PM2.5, whose diameter is 2.5 mm or less. Particulate matter (PM) pollution as indicated by high PM2.5 readings will cause a spike in the mortality rate of patients suffering from heart and lung diseases. Because fine particles are much smaller than inhalable coarse particles, the can penetrate deeper into the lungs and cause more severe effects on human health. Anthropogenic sources of PM2.5 include automobiles, factories, coal-burning power plants, and heaters in homes. It is well known that the size of dust particles decreases during long-range transport via westerly winds, and the resulting dust storms can contain high concentrations of fine particles. Accordingly, PM2.5 concentrations correspond well to both anthropogenic and dust aerosols. This work intends to investigate impacts of aerosol on regional climate change and environment over East Asia using observations and model simulations.

  3. Impact of Asia Dust Aerosols on Regional Environment and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, J.

    2015-12-01

    East Asia is a major dust source in the world and has great impacts on regional climate in Asia, where the large arid and semi-arid regions are. In this study, the typical transport paths of East Asia dust, which affect regional and global climates, are demonstrated and numerous effects of dust aerosols on clouds and precipitation primarily over East Asian arid and semi-arid regions are discussed. Compared with the dust aerosols of Saharan, those of East Asian are more absorptive of solar radiation, and can influence the cloud properties not only by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei but also through changing the relative humidity and stability of the atmosphere (via semi-direct effect). Converting visible light to thermal energy, dust aerosols can burn clouds to produce a warming effect on climate, which is opposite to the first and second indirect effects of aerosols. Over Asia arid and semi-arid regions, the positive feedback in the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction may aggravate drought in its inner land. Impact of Asia dust on regional environment, especially on haze weather, are also presented in this talk.

  4. Influence of aerosols on surface reaching spectral irradiance and introduction to a new technique for estimating aerosol radiative forcing from spectral flux measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rao, R. R.

    2015-12-01

    Aerosol radiative forcing estimates with high certainty are required in climate change studies. The approach in estimating the aerosol radiative forcing by using the chemical composition of aerosols is not effective as the chemical composition data with radiative properties are not widely available. In this study we look into the approach where ground based spectral radiation flux measurements along with an RT model is used to estimate radiative forcing. Measurements of spectral flux were made using an ASD spectroradiometer with 350 - 1050 nm wavelength range and 3nm resolution for around 54 clear-sky days during which AOD range was around 0.1 to 0.7. Simultaneous measurements of black carbon were also made using Aethalometer (Magee Scientific) which ranged from around 1.5 ug/m3 to 8 ug/m3. All the measurements were made in the campus of Indian Institute of Science which is in the heart of Bangalore city. The primary study involved in understanding the sensitivity of spectral flux to change in the mass concentration of individual aerosol species (Optical properties of Aerosols and Clouds -OPAC classified aerosol species) using the SBDART RT model. This made us clearly distinguish the region of influence of different aerosol species on the spectral flux. Following this, a new technique has been introduced to estimate an optically equivalent mixture of aerosol species for the given location. The new method involves an iterative process where the mixture of aerosol species are changed in OPAC model and RT model is run as long as the mixture which mimics the measured spectral flux within 2-3% deviation from measured spectral flux is obtained. Using the optically equivalent aerosol mixture and RT model aerosol radiative forcing is estimated. The new method is limited to clear sky scenes and its accuracy to derive an optically equivalent aerosol mixture reduces when diffuse component of flux increases. Our analysis also showed that direct component of spectral flux is

  5. The Astronomical Forcing of Climate Change: Forcings and Feedbacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erb, M. P.; Broccoli, A. J.; Clement, A. C.

    2010-12-01

    Understanding the role that orbital forcing played in driving climate change over the Pleistocene has been a matter of ongoing research. While it is undeniable that variations in Earth’s orbit result in changes in the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of insolation, the specifics of how this forcing leads to the climate changes seen in the paleo record are not fully understood. To research this further, climate simulations have been conducted with the GFDL CM2.1, a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM. Two simulations represent the extremes of obliquity during the past 600 kyr and four others show key times in the precessional cycle. All non-orbital variables are set to preindustrial levels to isolate the effects of astronomical forcing alone. It is expected that feedbacks should play a large role in dictating climate change, so to investigate this, the so-called “kernel method” is used to calculate the lapse rate, water vapor, albedo, and cloud feedbacks. Preliminary results of these experiments confirm that feedbacks are important in explaining the nature and, in places, even the sign of climate response to orbital forcing. In the case of low obliquity, for instance, a combination of climate feedbacks lead to global cooling in spite of zero global-average top of atmosphere insolation change. Feedbacks will be analyzed in the obliquity and precession experiments so that the role of feedbacks in contributing to climate change may be better understood.

  6. Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation Interactions in the Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andreae, M. O.

    2015-12-01

    Aerosols serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and thus have a powerful effect on cloud properties. Increased aerosol concentrations resulting from pollution lead to higher cloud droplet concentrations, but smaller droplet sizes. This in turn affects the physical processes inside clouds that lead to the initiation of precipitation. Depending on a number of factors, including aerosol composition, atmospheric stability, and cloud water content, increasing CCN concentrations may either decrease or increase rainfall. In convective clouds, early rain formation is suppressed, which makes more water and energy available to rise higher in the atmosphere and form ice particles. This may invigorate the dynamics of convection, encourage the formation of hail and lightning, and enhance the transport of materials to the upper troposphere. In turn, cloud processing also affects the concentrations, composition, and distribution of atmospheric aerosols. In order to understand and quantify the effects of air pollution on climate, and precipitation in particular, knowledge of natural abundance and characteristics of aerosols is as essential as the observation of perturbed conditions. I will present recent advances in the conceptual understanding of aerosol-precipitation interactions, as well as results of measurements on aerosol and cloud characteristics in pristine and polluted conditions.

  7. Aerosol effects on climate in China: a consistent picture?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Folini, Doris; Wild, Martin

    2013-04-01

    Population growth and industrialization in China in recent decades were accompanied by a substantial increase in aerosol emissions. Corresponding inventory data as well as consequences of increasing aerosol emissions are debated on the quantitative level, e.g. urbanization effects in observed data. We use transient sensitivity studies with the global atmosphere only climate model ECHAM5-HAM (aerosol emission data from NIES, the National Institute of Environmental Studies, Japan; prescribed, observation based sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the Hadley Center) to investigate the effect of different aerosol emissions on surface solar radiation (SSR), surface air temperature (SAT), and precipitation. Observed and modeled SSR show a decrease of around -7 W/m2 in eastern parts of China, before increasing again in the late 1990s. Modeled SAT reflects the decrease in SSR in recent decades but carries also a substantial SST signature, in particular in the first half of the 20th century. Modeled precipitation decreases under the influence of increasing aerosol emissions, the 'northern drought, southern flood' pattern gets lost. We discuss how modeled changes due to increasing aerosol emissions compare with observations and what this may imply for the prescribed aerosol emissions, the model results, and the observed data.

  8. WRF-Chem simulations of aerosols and anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing in East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Yi; Zhao, Chun; Liu, Xiaohong; Zhang, Meigen; Leung, L. Ruby

    2014-08-01

    This study aims to provide a first comprehensive evaluation of WRF-Chem for modeling aerosols and anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing (RF, including direct, semi-direct and indirect forcing) over East Asia. Several numerical experiments were conducted from November 2007 to December 2008. Comparison between model results and observations shows that the model can generally reproduce the observed spatial distributions of aerosol concentration, aerosol optical depth (AOD) and single scattering albedo (SSA) from measurements at many sites, including the relatively higher aerosol concentration and AOD over East China and the relatively lower AOD over Southeast Asia, Korea, and Japan. The model also depicts the seasonal variation and transport of pollutions over East Asia. Particulate matter of 10 μm or less in the aerodynamic diameter (PM10), black carbon (BC), sulfate (SO42-), nitrate (NO3-) and ammonium (NH4+) concentrations are higher in spring than other seasons in Japan, which indicates the possible influence of pollutant transport from polluted area of East Asia. The model underestimates SO42- and organic carbon (OC) concentrations over mainland China by about a factor of 2, while overestimates NO3- concentration in autumn along the Yangtze River. The model captures the dust events at the Zhangye site in the semi-arid region of China. AOD is high over Southwest and Central China in winter and spring and over North China in winter, spring and summer while is low over South China in summer due to monsoon precipitation. SSA is lowest in winter and highest in summer. Anthropogenic aerosol RF is estimated to range from -5 to -20 W m-2 over land and -20 to -40 W m-2 over adjacent oceans at the top of atmosphere (TOA), 5-30 W m-2 in the atmosphere (ATM) and -15 to -40 W m-2 at the bottom (BOT). The warming effect of anthropogenic aerosol in ATM results from BC aerosol while the negative aerosol RF at TOA is caused by scattering aerosols such as SO42-, NO3- and NH4

  9. Deliberating stratospheric aerosols for climate geoengineering and the SPICE project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pidgeon, Nick; Parkhill, Karen; Corner, Adam; Vaughan, Naomi

    2013-05-01

    Increasing concerns about the narrowing window for averting dangerous climate change have prompted calls for research into geoengineering, alongside dialogue with the public regarding this as a possible response. We report results of the first public engagement study to explore the ethics and acceptability of stratospheric aerosol technology and a proposed field trial (the Stratospheric Particle Injection for Climate Engineering (SPICE) 'pipe and balloon' test bed) of components for an aerosol deployment mechanism. Although almost all of our participants were willing to allow the field trial to proceed, very few were comfortable with using stratospheric aerosols. This Perspective also discusses how these findings were used in a responsible innovation process for the SPICE project initiated by the UK's research councils.

  10. Guidelines for the aerosol climatic effects special study: An element of the NASA climate research program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    Research to help develop better understanding of the role of aerosols in the Earth's radiative balance is summarized. Natural volcanic injections of aerosols into the stratosphere to understand and model any resultant evidence of climate change are considered. The approach involves: (1) measurements from aircraft, balloon and ground based platforms which complement and enhance the aerosol information derived from satellite data; (2) development of instruments required for some of these measurements; (3) theoretical and laboratory work to aid in interpreting and utilizing space based and in situ data; and (4) preparation for and execution of concentrated observations of stratospheric aerosols following a future large volcanic eruption.

  11. The Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment: A New Challenge to Monsoon Climate Research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2008-01-01

    Aerosol and monsoon related droughts and floods are two of the most serious environmental hazards confronting more than 60% of the population of the world living in the Asian monsoon countries. In recent years, thanks to improved satellite and in-situ observations, and better models, great strides have been made in aerosol, and monsoon research respectively. There is now a growing body of evidence suggesting that interaction of aerosol forcing with water cycle dynamics in monsoon regions may substantially alter the redistribution of energy at the earth surface and in the atmosphere, and therefore significantly impact monsoon rainfall variability and long term trends. In this talk, I will describe issues related to societal needs, scientific background, and challenges in studies of aerosol-water cycle interaction in Asian monsoon regions. As a first step towards addressing these issues, the authors call for an integrated observation and modeling research approach aimed at the interactions between aerosol chemistry and radiative effects and monsoon dynamics of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system. A Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX) is proposed for 2007-2011, with an enhanced observation period during 2008-09, encompassing diverse arrays of observations from surface, aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, and satellites of physical and chemical properties of aerosols, long range aerosol transport as well as meteorological and oceanographic parameters in the Indo-Pacific Asian monsoon region. JAMEX will leverage on coordination among many ongoing and planned national programs on aerosols and monsoon research in China, India, Japan, Nepal, Italy, US, as well as international research programs of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

  12. Total Volcanic Stratospheric Aerosol Optical Depths and Implications for Global Climate Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ridley, D. A.; Solomon, S.; Barnes, J. E.; Burlakov, V. D.; Deshler, T.; Dolgii, S. I.; Herber, A. B.; Nagai, T.; Neely, R. R., III; Nevzorov, A. V.; Ritter, C.; Sakai, T.; Santer, B. D.; Sato, M.; Schmidt, A.; Uchino, O.; Vernier, J. P.

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the cooling effect of recent volcanoes is of particular interest in the context of the post-2000 slowing of the rate of global warming. Satellite observations of aerosol optical depth above 15 km have demonstrated that small-magnitude volcanic eruptions substantially perturb incoming solar radiation. Here we use lidar, Aerosol Robotic Network, and balloon-borne observations to provide evidence that currently available satellite databases neglect substantial amounts of volcanic aerosol between the tropopause and 15 km at middle to high latitudes and therefore underestimate total radiative forcing resulting from the recent eruptions. Incorporating these estimates into a simple climate model, we determine the global volcanic aerosol forcing since 2000 to be 0.19 +/- 0.09W/sq m. This translates into an estimated global cooling of 0.05 to 0.12 C. We conclude that recent volcanic events are responsible for more post-2000 cooling than is implied by satellite databases that neglect volcanic aerosol effects below 15 km.

  13. Aerosol and ozone radiative forcing 1990-2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Myhre, Cathrine Lund; Myhre, Gunnar; Samset, Bjørn H.; Schulz, Michael

    2016-04-01

    The regional changes in economic growth and pollution regulations have caused large changes in the geographical distribution of emissions of precursors and components affecting the radiation balance. Here we use recently updated emission data over the 1990-2015 period in eight global aerosol models to simulate aerosol and ozone changes and their radiative forcing. The models reproduce the general large-scale changes in aerosol and ozone changes over this period. The surface particle mass changes is simulated to 2-3 %/yr for the total fine particle concentration over main industrialized regions. Six models simulated changes in PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less 2.5 μm) over the 1990-2015 period. Observations of changes in PM2.5 are available for selected regions and time periods. The available PM2.5 trends from observations and model mean results are compared and for Europe the observed trend is 20% stronger than the model-mean over the 2000-2010 period. Over the 1990-2010 period the US observed changes are 13% lower than the simulated changes. Despite this relatively promising result, the agreement over US for the 2000-2010 period is poor. The reasons for this will be further explored. The forcing for ozone and aerosols increase over the 1990-2015 period and more positive relative to results in IPCC AR5. The main reason for a positive aerosol forcing over this period is explained by a substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions, in parallel with increasing black carbon emissions.

  14. How weather impacts the forced climate response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirtman, Ben P.; Schneider, Edwin K.; Straus, David M.; Min, Dughong; Burgman, Robert

    2011-12-01

    The new interactive ensemble modeling strategy is used to diagnose how noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics impacts the forced climate response during the twentieth century (i.e., 1870-1999). The interactive ensemble uses multiple realizations of the atmospheric component model coupled to a single realization of the land, ocean and ice component models in order to reduce the noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics in the flux exchange at the interface of the component models. A control ensemble of so-called climate of the twentieth century simulations of the Community Climate Simulation Model version 3 (CCSM3) are compared with a similar simulation with the interactive ensemble version of CCSM3. Despite substantial differences in the overall mean climate, the global mean trends in surface temperature, 500 mb geopotential and precipitation are largely indistinguishable between the control ensemble and the interactive ensemble. Large differences in the forced response; however, are detected particularly in the surface temperature of the North Atlantic. Associated with the forced North Atlantic surface temperature differences are local differences in the forced precipitation and a substantial remote rainfall response in the deep tropical Pacific. We also introduce a simple variance analysis to separately compare the variance due to noise and the forced response. We find that the noise variance is decreased when external forcing is included. In terms of the forced variance, we find that the interactive ensemble increases this variance relative to the control.

  15. How weather impacts the forced climate response

    SciTech Connect

    Kirtman, Ben P.; Schneider, Edwin K.; Straus, David M.; Min, Dughong; Burgman, Robert

    2011-05-10

    The new interactive ensemble modeling strategy is used to diagnose how noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics impacts the forced climate response during the twentieth century (i.e., 1870–1999). The interactive ensemble uses multiple realizations of the atmospheric component model coupled to a single realization of the land, ocean and ice component models in order to reduce the noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics in the flux exchange at the interface of the component models. A control ensemble of so-called climate of the twentieth century simulations of the Community Climate Simulation Model version 3 (CCSM3) are compared with a similar simulation with the interactive ensemble version of CCSM3. Despite substantial differences in the overall mean climate, the global mean trends in surface temperature, 500 mb geopotential and precipitation are largely indistinguishable between the control ensemble and the interactive ensemble. Large differences in the forced response; however, are detected particularly in the surface temperature of the North Atlantic. Associated with the forced North Atlantic surface temperature differences are local differences in the forced precipitation and a substantial remote rainfall response in the deep tropical Pacific. We also introduce a simple variance analysis to separately compare the variance due to noise and the forced response. We find that the noise variance is decreased when external forcing is included. Finally, in terms of the forced variance, we find that the interactive ensemble increases this variance relative to the control.

  16. Impact of anthropogenic aerosols on regional climate change in Beijing, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, B.; Liou, K. N.; He, C.; Lee, W. L.; Gu, Y.; Li, Q.; Leung, L. R.

    2015-12-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols affect regional climate significantly through radiative (direct and semi-direct) and indirect effects, but the magnitude of these effects over megacities are subject to large uncertainty. In this study, we evaluated the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on regional climate change in Beijing, China using the online-coupled Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry Model (WRF/Chem) with the Fu-Liou-Gu radiation scheme and a spatial resolution of 4km. We further updated this radiation scheme with a geometric-optics surface-wave (GOS) approach for the computation of light absorption and scattering by black carbon (BC) particles in which aggregation shape and internal mixing properties are accounted for. In addition, we incorporated in WRF/Chem a 3D radiative transfer parameterization in conjunction with high-resolution digital data for city buildings and landscape to improve the simulation of boundary-layer, surface solar fluxes and associated sensible/latent heat fluxes. Preliminary simulated meteorological parameters, fine particles (PM2.5) and their chemical components agree well with observational data in terms of both magnitude and spatio-temporal variations. The effects of anthropogenic aerosols, including BC, on radiative forcing, surface temperature, wind speed, humidity, cloud water path, and precipitation are quantified on the basis of simulation results. With several preliminary sensitivity runs, we found that meteorological parameters and aerosol radiative effects simulated with the incorporation of improved BC absorption and 3-D radiation parameterizations deviate substantially from simulation results using the conventional homogeneous/core-shell configuration for BC and the plane-parallel model for radiative transfer. Understanding of the aerosol effects on regional climate change over megacities must consider the complex shape and mixing state of aerosol aggregates and 3D radiative transfer effects over city landscape.

  17. Biotic stress accelerates formation of climate-relevant aerosols in boreal forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joutsensaari, J.; Yli-Pirilä, P.; Korhonen, H.; Arola, A.; Blande, J. D.; Heijari, J.; Kivimäenpää, M.; Mikkonen, S.; Hao, L.; Miettinen, P.; Lyytikäinen-Saarenmaa, P.; Faiola, C. L.; Laaksonen, A.; Holopainen, J. K.

    2015-11-01

    , affect both aerosol direct and indirect forcing of climate at regional scales. The effect of insect outbreaks on VOC emissions and SOA formation should be considered in future climate predictions.

  18. Biotic stress accelerates formation of climate-relevant aerosols in boreal forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joutsensaari, J.; Yli-Pirilä, P.; Korhonen, H.; Arola, A.; Blande, J. D.; Heijari, J.; Kivimäenpää, M.; Mikkonen, S.; Hao, L.; Miettinen, P.; Lyytikäinen-Saarenmaa, P.; Faiola, C. L.; Laaksonen, A.; Holopainen, J. K.

    2015-04-01

    , affect both aerosol direct and indirect forcing of climate at regional scales. The effect of insect outbreaks on VOC emissions and SOA formation should be considered in future climate predictions.

  19. Coupled Aerosol-Chemistry-Climate Twentieth-Century Transient Model Investigation: Trends in Short-Lived Species and Climate Responses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koch, Dorothy; Bauer, Susanne E.; Del Genio, Anthony; Faluvegi, Greg; McConnell, Joseph R.; Menon, Surabi; Miller, Ronald L.; Rind, David; Ruedy, Reto; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Shindell, Drew

    2011-01-01

    The authors simulate transient twentieth-century climate in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM, with aerosol and ozone chemistry fully coupled to one another and to climate including a full dynamic ocean. Aerosols include sulfate, black carbon (BC), organic carbon, nitrate, sea salt, and dust. Direct and BC snow-albedo radiative effects are included. Model BC and sulfur trends agree fairly well with records from Greenland and European ice cores and with sulfur deposition in North America; however, the model underestimates the sulfur decline at the end of the century in Greenland. Global BC effects peak early in the century (1940s); afterward the BC effects decrease at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but continue to increase at lower latitudes. The largest increase in aerosol optical depth occurs in the middle of the century (1940s-80s) when sulfate forcing peaks and causes global dimming. After this, aerosols decrease in eastern North America and northern Eurasia leading to regional positive forcing changes and brightening. These surface forcing changes have the correct trend but are too weak. Over the century, the net aerosol direct effect is -0.41 Watts per square meter, the BC-albedo effect is -0.02 Watts per square meter, and the net ozone forcing is +0.24 Watts per square meter. The model polar stratospheric ozone depletion develops, beginning in the 1970s. Concurrently, the sea salt load and negative radiative flux increase over the oceans around Antarctica. Net warming over the century is modeled fairly well; however, the model fails to capture the dynamics of the observedmidcentury cooling followed by the late century warming.Over the century, 20% of Arctic warming and snow ice cover loss is attributed to the BC albedo effect. However, the decrease in this effect at the end of the century contributes to Arctic cooling. To test the climate responses to sulfate and BC pollution, two experiments were branched from 1970 that removed

  20. Efficient Formation of Stratospheric Aerosol for Climate Engineering by Emission of Condensible Vapor from Aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pierce, Jeffrey R.; Weisenstein, Debra K.; Heckendorn, Patricia; Peter. Thomas; Keith, David W.

    2010-01-01

    Recent analysis suggests that the effectiveness of stratospheric aerosol climate engineering through emission of non-condensable vapors such as SO2 is limited because the slow conversion to H2SO4 tends to produce aerosol particles that are too large; SO2 injection may be so inefficient that it is difficult to counteract the radiative forcing due to a CO2 doubling. Here we describe an alternate method in which aerosol is formed rapidly in the plume following injection of H2SO4, a condensable vapor, from an aircraft. This method gives better control of particle size and can produce larger radiative forcing with lower sulfur loadings than SO2 injection. Relative to SO2 injection, it may reduce some of the adverse effects of geoengineering such as radiative heating of the lower stratosphere. This method does not, however, alter the fact that such a geoengineered radiative forcing can, at best, only partially compensate for the climate changes produced by CO2.

  1. Are Atmospheric Vertical Velocities a Key to Unlocking Climate Forcing and Sensitivity?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donner, L.

    2015-12-01

    The roles of moist processes both as feedbacks to climate forcing and,in the case of their interactions with aerosols, as sources of climate forcingremain stubbornly uncertain. This presentation will argue that a possiblebreakthrough in reducing this uncertainty may be found through closer at-tention to vertical velocities in climate models. Vertical velocities are a pri-mary driver of nucleation of cloud droplets and ice crystals in clouds andthereby climate forcing by cloud-aerosol interactions. They may also be im-portant, observably verifiable constraints on convective processes importantfor cloud feedbacks, as they correlate with convective mixing and verticalheating profiles. Limited attention has been directed to the realism of the vertical-velocityspectrum in climate models. To the extent vertical velocities are criticalin climate forcing and as a constraint on climate feedbacks, this opens newopportunities to reduce uncertainties in forcing and feedbacks. Vertical ve-locities on all scales are likely to be important. These scales are both resolvedand sub-grid in climate models. Recent field campaigns have provided newobservations of vertical velocities at cloud scales, and parameterizations formoist processes in models are beginning to include vertical velocities. Ex-ploiting information on vertical velocities in climate models, and foreseeableadvances in parameterization and model resolution with attention to verticalvelocities, offer the prospect of reducing uncertainty associated with moistprocesses.

  2. Potential climate forcing of land use and land cover change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, D. S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Kloster, S.

    2014-05-01

    Pressure on land resources is expected to increase as global population continues to climb and the world becomes more affluent, swelling the demand for food. Changing climate may exert additional pressures on natural lands as present day productive regions may shift, or soil quality may degrade, and the recent rise in demand for biofuels increases competition with edible crops for arable land. Given these projected trends there is a need to understand the global climate impacts of land use and land cover change (LULCC). Here we quantify the climate impacts of global LULCC in terms of modifications to the balance between incoming and outgoing radiation at the top of the atmosphere (radiative forcing; RF) that are caused by changes in long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol effects and land surface albedo. We simulate historical changes to terrestrial carbon storage, global fire emissions, secondary organic aerosol emissions, and surface albedo from LULCC using the Community Land Model version 3.5. These LULCC emissions are combined with estimates of agricultural emissions of important trace gases and mineral dust in two sets of Community Atmosphere Model simulations to calculate the RF from LULCC impacts on atmospheric chemistry and changes in aerosol concentrations. With all forcing agents considered together, we show that 45% (+30%, -20%) of the present-day anthropogenic RF can be attributed to LULCC. Changes in the emission of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols from LULCC enhance the total LULCC RF by a factor of 2 to 3 with respect to the LULCC RF from CO2 alone. This enhancement factor also applies to projected LULCC RF, which we compute for four future scenarios associated with the Representative Concentration Pathways. We calculate total RFs between 1 to 2 W m-2 from LULCC for the year 2100 (relative to a preindustrial state). To place an upper bound on the potential of LULCC to alter the global radiation budget we include a fifth

  3. Potential climate forcing of land use and land cover change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, D. S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Kloster, S.

    2014-12-01

    Pressure on land resources is expected to increase as global population continues to climb and the world becomes more affluent, swelling the demand for food. Changing climate may exert additional pressures on natural lands as present-day productive regions may shift, or soil quality may degrade, and the recent rise in demand for biofuels increases competition with edible crops for arable land. Given these projected trends there is a need to understand the global climate impacts of land use and land cover change (LULCC). Here we quantify the climate impacts of global LULCC in terms of modifications to the balance between incoming and outgoing radiation at the top of the atmosphere (radiative forcing, RF) that are caused by changes in long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol effects, and land surface albedo. We attribute historical changes in terrestrial carbon storage, global fire emissions, secondary organic aerosol emissions, and surface albedo to LULCC using simulations with the Community Land Model version 3.5. These LULCC emissions are combined with estimates of agricultural emissions of important trace gases and mineral dust in two sets of Community Atmosphere Model simulations to calculate the RF of changes in atmospheric chemistry and aerosol concentrations attributed to LULCC. With all forcing agents considered together, we show that 40% (±16%) of the present-day anthropogenic RF can be attributed to LULCC. Changes in the emission of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols from LULCC enhance the total LULCC RF by a factor of 2 to 3 with respect to the LULCC RF from CO2 alone. This enhancement factor also applies to projected LULCC RF, which we compute for four future scenarios associated with the Representative Concentration Pathways. We attribute total RFs between 0.9 and 1.9 W m-2 to LULCC for the year 2100 (relative to a pre-industrial state). To place an upper bound on the potential of LULCC to alter the global radiation budget

  4. Geo-Engineering Climate Change with Sulfate Aerosol

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rasch, P. J.; Crutzen, P. J.

    2006-12-01

    We explore the impact of injecting a precursor of sulfate aerosols into the middle atmosphere where they would act to increase the planetary albedo and thus counter some of the effects of greenhouse gase forcing. We use an atmospheric general circulation model (CAM, the Community Atmosphere Model) coupled to a slab ocean model for this study. Only physical effects are examined, that is we ignore the biogeochemical and chemical implications of changes to greenhouse gases and aerosols, and do not explore the important ethical, legal, and moral issues that are associated with deliberate geo-engineering efforts. The simulations suggest that the sulfate aerosol produced from the SO2 source in the stratosphere is sufficient to counterbalance most of the warming associated with the greenhouse gas forcing. Surface temperatures return to within a few tenths of a degree(K) of present day levels. Sea ice and precipitation distributions are also much closer to their present day values. The polar region surface temperatures remain 1-3 degrees warm in the winter hemisphere than present day values. This study is very preliminary. Only a subset of the relevant effects have been explored. The effect of such an injection of aerosols on middle atmospheric chemistry, and the effect on cirrus clouds are obvious missing components that merit scrutiny. There are probably others that should be considered. The injection of such aerosols cannot help in ameliorating the effects of CO2 changes on ocean PH, or other effects on the biogeochemistry of the earth system.

  5. Chapter 3: Evaluating the impacts of carbonaceous aerosols on clouds and climate

    SciTech Connect

    Menon, Surabi; Del Genio, Anthony D.

    2007-09-03

    Any attempt to reconcile observed surface temperature changes within the last 150 years to changes simulated by climate models that include various atmospheric forcings is sensitive to the changes attributed to aerosols and aerosol-cloud-climate interactions, which are the main contributors that may well balance the positive forcings associated with greenhouse gases, absorbing aerosols, ozone related changes, etc. These aerosol effects on climate, from various modeling studies discussed in Menon (2004), range from +0.8 to -2.4 W m{sup -2}, with an implied value of -1.0 W m{sup -2} (range from -0.5 to -4.5 W m{sup -2}) for the aerosol indirect effects. Quantifying the contribution of aerosols and aerosol-cloud interactions remain complicated for several reasons some of which are related to aerosol distributions and some to the processes used to represent their effects on clouds. Aerosol effects on low lying marine stratocumulus clouds that cover much of the Earth's surface (about 70%) have been the focus of most of prior aerosol-cloud interaction effect simulations. Since cumulus clouds (shallow and deep convective) are short lived and cover about 15 to 20% of the Earth's surface, they are not usually considered as radiatively important. However, the large amount of latent heat released from convective towers, and corresponding changes in precipitation, especially in biomass regions due to convective heating effects (Graf et al. 2004), suggest that these cloud systems and aerosol effects on them, must be examined more closely. The radiative heating effects for mature deep convective systems can account for 10-30% of maximum latent heating effects and thus cannot be ignored (Jensen and Del Genio 2003). The first study that isolated the sensitivity of cumulus clouds to aerosols was from Nober et al. (2003) who found a reduction in precipitation in biomass burning regions and shifts in circulation patterns. Aerosol effects on convection have been included in other

  6. An overview of geoengineering of climate using stratospheric sulphate aerosols

    SciTech Connect

    Rasch, Philip J.; Tilmes, S.; Turco, Richard P.; Robock, Alan; Oman, Luke; Chen, Chih-Chieh; Stenchikov, Georgiy; Garcia, Rolando R.

    2010-01-01

    We provide an overview of geoengineering by stratospheric sulphate aerosols. The state of understanding about this topic as of early 2008 is reviewed, summarizing the past 30 years of work in the area, highlighting some very recent studies using climate models, and discussing methods used to deliver sulphur species to the stratosphere. The studies reviewed here suggest that sulphate aerosols can counteract the globally averaged temperature increase associated with increasing greenhouse gases, and reduce changes to some other components of the Earth system. There are likely to be remaining regional climate changes after geoengineering, with some regions experiencing significant changes in temperature or precipitation. The aerosols also serve as surfaces for heterogeneous chemistry resulting in increased ozone depletion. The delivery of sulphur species to the stratosphere in a way that will produce particles of the right size is shown to be a complex and potentially very difficult task. Two simple delivery scenarios are explored, but similar exercises will be needed for other suggested delivery mechanisms. While the introduction of the geoengineering source of sulphate aerosol will perturb the sulphur cycle of the stratosphere signicantly, it is a small perturbation to the total (stratosphere and troposphere) sulphur cycle. The geoengineering source would thus be a small contributor to the total global source of ‘acid rain’ that could be compensated for through improved pollution control of anthropogenic tropospheric sources. Some areas of research remain unexplored. Although ozone may be depleted, with a consequent increase to solar ultraviolet-B (UVB) energy reaching the surface and a potential impact on health and biological populations, the aerosols will also scatter and attenuate this part of the energy spectrum, and this may compensate the UVB enhancement associated with ozone depletion. The aerosol will also change the ratio of diffuse to direct energy

  7. An overview of geoengineering of climate using stratospheric sulphate aerosols.

    PubMed

    Rasch, Philip J; Tilmes, Simone; Turco, Richard P; Robock, Alan; Oman, Luke; Chen, Chih-Chieh; Stenchikov, Georgiy L; Garcia, Rolando R

    2008-11-13

    We provide an overview of geoengineering by stratospheric sulphate aerosols. The state of understanding about this topic as of early 2008 is reviewed, summarizing the past 30 years of work in the area, highlighting some very recent studies using climate models, and discussing methods used to deliver sulphur species to the stratosphere. The studies reviewed here suggest that sulphate aerosols can counteract the globally averaged temperature increase associated with increasing greenhouse gases, and reduce changes to some other components of the Earth system. There are likely to be remaining regional climate changes after geoengineering, with some regions experiencing significant changes in temperature or precipitation. The aerosols also serve as surfaces for heterogeneous chemistry resulting in increased ozone depletion. The delivery of sulphur species to the stratosphere in a way that will produce particles of the right size is shown to be a complex and potentially very difficult task. Two simple delivery scenarios are explored, but similar exercises will be needed for other suggested delivery mechanisms. While the introduction of the geoengineering source of sulphate aerosol will perturb the sulphur cycle of the stratosphere signicantly, it is a small perturbation to the total (stratosphere and troposphere) sulphur cycle. The geoengineering source would thus be a small contributor to the total global source of 'acid rain' that could be compensated for through improved pollution control of anthropogenic tropospheric sources. Some areas of research remain unexplored. Although ozone may be depleted, with a consequent increase to solar ultraviolet-B (UVB) energy reaching the surface and a potential impact on health and biological populations, the aerosols will also scatter and attenuate this part of the energy spectrum, and this may compensate the UVB enhancement associated with ozone depletion. The aerosol will also change the ratio of diffuse to direct energy

  8. Stratospheric sulfur and its implications for radiative forcing simulated by the chemistry climate model EMAC

    PubMed Central

    Brühl, C; Lelieveld, J; Tost, H; Höpfner, M; Glatthor, N

    2015-01-01

    Multiyear simulations with the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC with a microphysical modal aerosol module at high vertical resolution demonstrate that the sulfur gases COS and SO2, the latter from low-latitude and midlatitude volcanic eruptions, predominantly control the formation of stratospheric aerosol. Marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and other SO2 sources, including strong anthropogenic emissions in China, are found to play a minor role except in the lowermost stratosphere. Estimates of volcanic SO2 emissions are based on satellite observations using Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and Ozone Monitoring Instrument for total injected mass and Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on Envisat or Stratospheric Aerosol and Gases Experiment for the spatial distribution. The 10 year SO2 and COS data set of MIPAS is also used for model evaluation. The calculated radiative forcing of stratospheric background aerosol including sulfate from COS and small contributions by DMS oxidation, and organic aerosol from biomass burning, is about 0.07W/m2. For stratospheric sulfate aerosol from medium and small volcanic eruptions between 2005 and 2011 a global radiative forcing up to 0.2W/m2 is calculated, moderating climate warming, while for the major Pinatubo eruption the simulated forcing reaches 5W/m2, leading to temporary climate cooling. The Pinatubo simulation demonstrates the importance of radiative feedback on dynamics, e.g., enhanced tropical upwelling, for large volcanic eruptions. PMID:25932352

  9. Stratospheric sulfur and its implications for radiative forcing simulated by the chemistry climate model EMAC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brühl, C.; Lelieveld, J.; Tost, H.; Höpfner, M.; Glatthor, N.

    2015-03-01

    Multiyear simulations with the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC with a microphysical modal aerosol module at high vertical resolution demonstrate that the sulfur gases COS and SO2, the latter from low-latitude and midlatitude volcanic eruptions, predominantly control the formation of stratospheric aerosol. Marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and other SO2 sources, including strong anthropogenic emissions in China, are found to play a minor role except in the lowermost stratosphere. Estimates of volcanic SO2 emissions are based on satellite observations using Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and Ozone Monitoring Instrument for total injected mass and Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on Envisat or Stratospheric Aerosol and Gases Experiment for the spatial distribution. The 10 year SO2 and COS data set of MIPAS is also used for model evaluation. The calculated radiative forcing of stratospheric background aerosol including sulfate from COS and small contributions by DMS oxidation, and organic aerosol from biomass burning, is about 0.07W/m2. For stratospheric sulfate aerosol from medium and small volcanic eruptions between 2005 and 2011 a global radiative forcing up to 0.2W/m2 is calculated, moderating climate warming, while for the major Pinatubo eruption the simulated forcing reaches 5W/m2, leading to temporary climate cooling. The Pinatubo simulation demonstrates the importance of radiative feedback on dynamics, e.g., enhanced tropical upwelling, for large volcanic eruptions.

  10. Climate studies with a multilayer energy balance model. III - Climatic impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chou, M.-D.; Arking, A.; Peng, L.

    1984-01-01

    A multilayer energy balance model is applied in an examination of the sensitivity of climate to stratospheric aerosols induced by volcanic eruptions. Zonally and annually averaged quantities are considered, with ocean and land temperatures computed separately and the atmosphere below the 200 mb level divided into eight layers of 24 sublayers each. The aerosol is assumed to form in the 150-200 mb range. Aerosol parameters for radiative transfer calculations are reflection in the solar spectral region and absorption in the solar and IR regions. A 75 percent aqueous solution of sulfuric acid is assumed for the aerosols. The sensitivity of the hemispherically averaged surface temperature is enhanced 37 percent, with a 20 percent uncertainty, when the thermal IR radiation is excluded. The solar radiation enhances the surface temperatures to a higher degree than the thermal radiation. The maximum response to the evenly distributed aerosols is in the 60-70 deg N latitudes and propagates, weakening, to lower latitudes.

  11. Direct and semi-direct aerosol radiative effect on the Mediterranean climate variability using a coupled regional climate system model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nabat, Pierre; Somot, Samuel; Mallet, Marc; Sevault, Florence; Chiacchio, Marc; Wild, Martin

    2015-02-01

    A fully coupled regional climate system model (CNRM-RCSM4) has been used over the Mediterranean region to investigate the direct and semi-direct effects of aerosols, but also their role in the radiation-atmosphere-ocean interactions through multi-annual ensemble simulations (2003-2009) with and without aerosols and ocean-atmosphere coupling. Aerosols have been taken into account in CNRM-RCSM4 through realistic interannual monthly AOD climatologies. An evaluation of the model has been achieved, against various observations for meteorological parameters, and has shown the ability of CNRM-RCSM4 to reproduce the main patterns of the Mediterranean climate despite some biases in sea surface temperature (SST), radiation and cloud cover. The results concerning the aerosol radiative effects show a negative surface forcing on average because of the absorption and scattering of the incident radiation. The SW surface direct effect is on average -20.9 Wm-2 over the Mediterranean Sea, -14.7 Wm-2 over Europe and -19.7 Wm-2 over northern Africa. The LW surface direct effect is weaker as only dust aerosols contribute (+4.8 Wm-2 over northern Africa). This direct effect is partly counterbalanced by a positive semi-direct radiative effect over the Mediterranean Sea (+5.7 Wm-2 on average) and Europe (+5.0 Wm-2) due to changes in cloud cover and atmospheric circulation. The total aerosol effect is consequently negative at the surface and responsible for a decrease in land (on average -0.4 °C over Europe, and -0.5 °C over northern Africa) and sea surface temperature (on average -0.5 °C for the Mediterranean SST). In addition, the latent heat loss is shown to be weaker (-11.0 Wm-2) in the presence of aerosols, resulting in a decrease in specific humidity in the lower troposphere, and a reduction in cloud cover and precipitation. Simulations also indicate that dust aerosols warm the troposphere by absorbing solar radiation, and prevent radiation from reaching the surface, thus

  12. BAECC Biogenic Aerosols - Effects on Clouds and Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Petäjä, Tuukka; Moisseev, Dmitri; Sinclair, Victoria; O'Connor, Ewan J.; Manninen, Antti J.; Levula, Janne; Väänänen, Riikka; Heikkinen, Liine; Äijälä, Mikko; Aalto, Juho; Bäck, Jaana

    2015-11-01

    “Biogenic Aerosols - Effects on Clouds and Climate (BAECC)”, featured the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program’s 2nd Mobile Facility (AMF2) in Hyytiälä, Finland. It operated for an 8-month intensive measurement campaign from February to September 2014. The main research goal was to understand the role of biogenic aerosols in cloud formation. One of the reasons to perform BAECC study in Hyytiälä was the fact that it hosts SMEAR-II (Station for Measuring Forest Ecosystem-Atmosphere Relations), which is one of the world’s most comprehensive surface in-situ observation sites in a boreal forest environment. The station has been measuring atmospheric aerosols, biogenic emissions and an extensive suite of parameters relevant to atmosphere-biosphere interactions continuously since 1996. The BAECC enables combining vertical profiles from AMF2 with surface-based in-situ SMEAR-II observations and allows the processes at the surface to be directly related to processes occurring throughout the entire tropospheric column. With the inclusion of extensive surface precipitation measurements, and intensive observation periods involving aircraft flights and novel radiosonde launches, the complementary observations of AMF2 and SMEAR-II provide a unique opportunity for investigating aerosol-cloud interactions, and cloud-to-precipitation processes. The BAECC dataset will initiate new opportunities for evaluating and improving models of aerosol sources and transport, cloud microphysical processes, and boundary-layer structures.

  13. Quantifying the climatological cloud-free direct radiative forcing of aerosol over the Red Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brindley, Helen; Osipov, Serega; Bantges, Richard; Smirnov, Alexander; Banks, Jamie; Levy, Robert; Prakash, P.-Jish; Stenchikov, Georgiy

    2015-04-01

    A combination of ground-based and satellite observations are used, in conjunction with column radiative transfer modelling, to assess the climatological aerosol loading and quantify its corresponding cloud-free direct radiative forcing (DRF) over the Red Sea. While there have been campaigns designed to probe aerosol-climate interactions over much of the world, relatively little attention has been paid to this region. Because of the remoteness of the area, satellite retrievals provide a crucial tool for assessing aerosol loading over the Sea. However, agreement between aerosol properties inferred from measurements from different instruments, and even in some cases from the same measurements using different retrieval algorithms can be poor, particularly in the case of mineral dust. Ground based measurements which can be used to evaluate retrievals are thus highly desirable. Here we take advantage of ship-based sun-photometer micro-tops observations gathered from a series of cruises which took place across the Red Sea during 2011 and 2013. To our knowledge these data represent the first set of detailed aerosol measurements from the Sea. They thus provide a unique opportunity to assess the performance of satellite retrieval algorithms in this region. Initially two aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval algorithms developed for the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) instruments are evaluated via comparison with the co-located cruise observations. These show excellent agreement, with correlations typically better than 0.9 and very small root-mean-square and bias differences. Calculations of radiative fluxes and DRF along one of the cruises using the observed aerosol and meteorological conditions also show good agreement with co-located estimates from the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) instrument if the aerosol asymmetry parameter is adjusted to account for the presence of large

  14. Our current understanding of the impact of aerosols on climate change.

    PubMed

    Prather, Kimberly A

    2009-01-01

    Aerosols constitute a climate and health risk via both direct and indirect effects. In this Viewpoint, recent developments in aerosol research and available instrumentation are discussed in the context of environmental change.

  15. Volcanic forcing for climate modeling: a new microphysics-based dataset covering years 1600-present

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arfeuille, F.; Weisenstein, D.; Mack, H.; Rozanov, E.; Peter, T.; Brönnimann, S.

    2013-02-01

    As the understanding and representation of the impacts of volcanic eruptions on climate have improved in the last decades, uncertainties in the stratospheric aerosol forcing from large eruptions are now not only linked to visible optical depth estimates on a global scale but also to details on the size, latitude and altitude distributions of the stratospheric aerosols. Based on our understanding of these uncertainties, we propose a new model-based approach to generating a volcanic forcing for General-Circulation-Model (GCM) and Chemistry-Climate-Model (CCM) simulations. This new volcanic forcing, covering the 1600-present period, uses an aerosol microphysical model to provide a realistic, physically consistent treatment of the stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Twenty-six eruptions were modeled individually using the latest available ice cores aerosol mass estimates and historical data on the latitude and date of eruptions. The evolution of aerosol spatial and size distribution after the sulfur dioxide discharge are hence characterized for each volcanic eruption. Large variations are seen in hemispheric partitioning and size distributions in relation to location/date of eruptions and injected SO2 masses. Results for recent eruptions are in good agreement with observations. By providing accurate amplitude and spatial distributions of shortwave and longwave radiative perturbations by volcanic sulfate aerosols, we argue that this volcanic forcing may help refine the climate model responses to the large volcanic eruptions since 1600. The final dataset consists of 3-D values (with constant longitude) of spectrally resolved extinction coefficients, single scattering albedos and asymmetry factors calculated for different wavelength bands upon request. Surface area densities for heterogeneous chemistry are also provided.

  16. MAC-v1: A new global aerosol climatology for climate studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kinne, Stefan; O'Donnel, Declan; Stier, Philip; Kloster, Silvia; Zhang, Kai; Schmidt, Hauke; Rast, Sebastian; Giorgetta, Marco; Eck, Tom F.; Stevens, Bjorn

    2013-12-01

    The Max-Planck-Institute Aerosol Climatology version 1 (MAC-v1) is introduced. It describes the optical properties of tropospheric aerosols on monthly timescales and with global coverage at a spatial resolution of 1° in latitude and longitude. By providing aerosol radiative properties for any wavelength of the solar (or shortwave) and of the terrestrial (or longwave) radiation spectrum, as needed in radiative transfer applications, this MAC-v1 data set lends itself to simplified and computationally efficient representations of tropospheric aerosol in climate studies. Estimates of aerosol radiative properties are provided for both total and anthropogenic aerosol in annual time steps from preindustrial times (i.e., starting with year 1860) well into the future (until the year 2100). Central to the aerosol climatology is the merging of monthly statistics of aerosol optical properties for current (year 2000) conditions. Hereby locally sparse but trusted high-quality data by ground-based sun-photometer networks are merged onto complete background maps defined by central data from global modeling with complex aerosol modules. This merging yields 0.13 for the global annual midvisible aerosol optical depth (AOD), with 0.07 attributed to aerosol sizes larger than 1 µm in diameter and 0.06 of attributed to aerosol sizes smaller than 1 µm in diameter. Hereby larger particles are less absorbing with a single scattering albedo (SSA) of 0.98 compared to 0.93 for smaller sizes. Simulation results of a global model are applied to prescribe the vertical distribution and to estimate anthropogenic contributions to the smaller size AOD as a function of time, with a 0.037 value for current conditions. In a demonstration application, the associated aerosol direct radiative effects are determined. For current conditions, total aerosol is estimated to reduce the combined shortwave and longwave net-flux balance at the top of the atmosphere by about -1.6 W/m2 from which -0.5 W/m2 (with

  17. The Impact of Pre-Industrial Land Use Change on Atmospheric Composition and Aerosol Radiative Forcing.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamilton, D. S.; Carslaw, K. S.; Spracklen, D. V.; Folberth, G.; Kaplan, J. O.; Pringle, K.; Scott, C.

    2015-12-01

    Anthropogenic land use change (LUC) has had a major impact on the climate by altering the amount of carbon stored in vegetation, changing surface albedo and modifying the levels of both biogenic and pyrogenic emissions. While previous studies of LUC have largely focused on the first two components, there has recently been a recognition that changes to aerosol and related pre-cursor gas emissions from LUC are equally important. Furthermore, it has also recently been recognised that the pre-industrial (PI) to present day (PD) radiative forcing (RF) of climate from aerosol cloud interactions (ACI) due to anthropogenic emissions is highly sensitive to the amount of natural aerosol that was present in the PI. This suggests that anthropogenic RF from ACI may be highly sensitive to land-use in the PI. There are currently two commonly used baseline reference years for the PI; 1750 and 1860. Rapid LUC occurred between 1750 and 1860, with large reductions in natural vegetation cover in Eastern Northern America, Europe, Central Russia, India and Eastern China as well as lower reductions in parts of Brazil and Africa. This LUC will have led to significant changes in biogenic and fire emissions with implications for natural aerosol concentrations and PI-to-PD RF. The focus of this study is therefore to quantify the impact of LUC between 1750 and 1860 on aerosol concentrations and PI-to-PD RF calculations from ACI. We use the UK Met Office HadGEM3-UKCA coupled-chemistry-climate model to calculate the impacts of anthropogenic emissions and anthropogenic LUC on aerosol size distributions in both 1750 and 1860. We prescribe LUC using the KK10 historical dataset of land cover change. Monoterpene emissions are coupled directly to the prescribed LUC through the JULES land surface scheme in HadGEM3. Fire emissions from LUC were calculated offline using the fire module LPJ-LMfire in the Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model. To separate out the impacts of LUC from

  18. Climate sensitivity and climate change under strong forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boer, G. J.; Hamilton, K.; Zhu, W.

    2005-06-01

    A version of the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) coupled climate model is integrated under current climate conditions and in a series of experiments with climate forcings ranging from modest to very strong. The purpose of the experiments is to investigate the nature and behaviour of the climate feedback/sensitivity of the model, its evolution with time and climate state, the robustness of model parameterizations as forcing levels increase, and the possibility of a “runaway” warming under strong forcing. The model is integrated for 50 years, or to failure, after increasing the solar constant by 2.5, 10, 15, 25, 35, and 45% of its control value. The model successfully completes 50 years of integration for the 2.5, 10, 15, and 25% solar constant increases but fails for increases of 35% and 45%. The effective global climate sensitivity evolves with time and analysis indicates that a new equilibrium will be obtained for the 2.5, 10, and 15% cases but that runaway warming is underway for the 25% increase in solar constant. Feedback processes are analysed both locally and globally in terms of longwave and shortwave, clear-sky/surface, and cloud forcing components. Feedbacks in the system must be negative overall and of sufficient strength to balance the positive forcing if the system is to attain a new equilibrium. Longwave negative feedback processes strengthen in a reasonably linear fashion as temperature increases but shortwave feedback processes do not. In particular, solar cloud feedback becomes less negative and, for the 25% forcing case, eventually becomes positive, resulting in temperatures that “run away”. The conditions under which a runaway climate warming might occur have previously been investigated using simpler models. For sufficiently strong forcing, the greenhouse effect of increasing water vapour in a warmer atmosphere is expected to overwhelm the negative feedback of the longwave cooling to space as temperature increases. This is

  19. Climate impact of biofuels in shipping: global model studies of the aerosol indirect effect.

    PubMed

    Righi, Mattia; Klinger, Carolin; Eyring, Veronika; Hendricks, Johannes; Lauer, Axel; Petzold, Andreas

    2011-04-15

    Aerosol emissions from international shipping are recognized to have a large impact on the Earth's radiation budget, directly by scattering and absorbing solar radiation and indirectly by altering cloud properties. New regulations have recently been approved by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) aiming at progressive reductions of the maximum sulfur content allowed in marine fuels from current 4.5% by mass down to 0.5% in 2020, with more restrictive limits already applied in some coastal regions. In this context, we use a global bottom-up algorithm to calculate geographically resolved emission inventories of gaseous (NO(x), CO, SO(2)) and aerosol (black carbon, organic matter, sulfate) species for different kinds of low-sulfur fuels in shipping. We apply these inventories to study the resulting changes in radiative forcing, attributed to particles from shipping, with the global aerosol-climate model EMAC-MADE. The emission factors for the different fuels are based on measurements at a test bed of a large diesel engine. We consider both fossil fuel (marine gas oil) and biofuels (palm and soy bean oil) as a substitute for heavy fuel oil in the current (2006) fleet and compare their climate impact to that resulting from heavy fuel oil use. Our simulations suggest that ship-induced surface level concentrations of sulfate aerosol are strongly reduced, up to about 40-60% in the high-traffic regions. This clearly has positive consequences for pollution reduction in the vicinity of major harbors. Additionally, such reductions in the aerosol loading lead to a decrease of a factor of 3-4 in the indirect global aerosol effect induced by emissions from international shipping.

  20. Global three-dimensional simulation and radiative forcing of various aerosol species with GCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takemura, Toshihiko; Okamoto, Hajime; Numaguti, Atusi; Suzuki, Kentaroh; Higurashi, Akiko; Nakajima, Teruyuki

    2001-02-01

    A global three-dimensional transport model that can simultaneously treat main tropospheric aerosols, i.e., carbonaceous (organic and black carbons), sulfate, soil dust, and sea salt, is developed. It is coupled with a Center for Climate System Research (CCSR)/National Institute for Enviormental Studies (NIES) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), and the meteorological field of wind, temperature, and specific humidity can be nudged by reanalysis data. Simulated results are compared with not only observations for aerosol concentrations but also the optical thickness and Angstrom exponent retrieved from remote sensing data such as National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). A general agreement is found between simulated results and observations spatially seasonally, and quantitatively. The present model is also coupled with the radiative process over both the solar and thermal regions. The annual and global mean radiative forcing by anthropogenic aerosols from fossil fuel sources is estimated to be -0.5 W m-2 over the clear sky for the direct effect and -2.0 W m-2 for the indirect effect.

  1. Energy and future climate forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Edmonds, J.A.; Scott, M.J.

    1987-06-01

    The ''greenhouse'' issue is a term used to refer to a physical phenomenon in which the presence of radiatively active gases in the atmosphere absorb infrared radiation escaping into space and thereby warm the surface of the earth. In the absence of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO/sub 2/), water vapor (H/sub 2/O), ozone (O/sub 3/), methane (CH/sub 4/), and nitrous oxide (N/sub 2/O), the earth's average surface temperature would be approximately zero degrees Fahrenheit rather than the 60 degrees F. that we observe. The greenhouse issue is a matter of increasing public concern because of the growing body of evidence that human activities are systematically altering the composition of the atmosphere. In 1800 the concentration of CO/sub 2/ was 280 parts per million volume (ppMv) (within an uncertainty range of 260--285 ppMv). In 1984 the average annual concentration measured at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii was 344 ppMv. The formulation of appropriate policy options to address the greenhouse issue depend on the accumulation of reliable information in four domains: emissions, atmospheric composition, climate, and consequences. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the current state of knowledge in the area of emissions. 30 refs., 1 fig., 5 tabs.

  2. Organic aerosols

    SciTech Connect

    Penner, J.E.

    1994-01-01

    Organic aerosols scatter solar radiation. They may also either enhance or decrease concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei. This paper summarizes observed concentrations of aerosols in remote continental and marine locations and provides estimates for the sources of organic aerosol matter. The anthropogenic sources of organic aerosols may be as large as the anthropogenic sources of sulfate aerosols, implying a similar magnitude of direct forcing of climate. The source estimates are highly uncertain and subject to revision in the future. A slow secondary source of organic aerosols of unknown origin may contribute to the observed oceanic concentrations. The role of organic aerosols acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) is described and it is concluded that they may either enhance or decrease the ability of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols to act as CCN.

  3. Infrared Aerosol Radiative Forcing at the Surface and the Top of the Atmosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Markowicz, Krzysztof M.; Flatau, Piotr J.; Vogelmann, Andrew M.; Quinn, Patricia K.; Welton, Ellsworth J.

    2003-01-01

    We study the clear-sky aerosol radiative forcing at infrared wavelengths using data from the Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia) cruise of the NOAA R/V Ronald H. Brown. Limited number of data points is analyzed mostly from ship and collocated satellite values. An optical model is derived from chemical measurements, lidar profiles, and visible extinction measurements which is used to and estimate the infrared aerosol optical thickness and the single scattering albedo. The IR model results are compared to detailed Fourier Transform Interferometer based infrared aerosol forcing estimates, pyrgeometer based infrared downward fluxes, and against the direct solar forcing observations. This combined approach attests for the self-consistency of the optical model and allows to derive quantities such as the infrared forcing at the top of the atmosphere or the infrared optical thickness. The mean infrared aerosol optical thickness at 10 microns is 0.08 and the single scattering albedo is 0.55. The modeled infrared aerosol forcing reaches 10 W/sq m during the cruise, which is a significant contribution to the total direct aerosol forcing. The surface infrared aerosol radiative forcing is between 10 to 25% of the shortwave aerosol forcing. The infrared aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere can go up to 19% of the solar aerosol forcing. We show good agreement between satellite (CERES instrument) retrievals and model results at the top of the atmosphere. Over the Sea of Japan, the average infrared radiative forcing is 4.6 W/sq m in the window region at the surface and it is 1.5 W/sq m at top of the atmosphere. The top of the atmosphere IR forcing efficiency is a strong function of aerosol temperature while the surface IR forcing efficiency varies between 37 and 55 W/sq m (per infrared optical depth unit). and changes between 10 to 18 W/sq m (per infrared optical depth unit).

  4. Illinois task force on global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Griffin, B.S.

    1996-12-31

    The purpose of this report is to document progress in the areas of national policy development, emissions reduction, research and education, and adaptation, and to identify specific actions that will be undertaken to implement the Illinois state action plan. The task force has been tracking national and international climate change policy, and helping shape national policy agenda. Identification and implementation of cost-effective mitigation measures has been performed for emissions reduction. In the area of research and education, the task force is developing the capacity to measure climate change indicators, maintaining and enhancing Illinois relevant research, and strengthening climate change education. Activities relevant to adaptation to new policy include strengthening water laws and planning for adaptation. 6 figs., 4 tabs.

  5. CHASER: An Innovative Satellite Mission Concept to Measure the Effects of Aerosols on Clouds and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Renno, N.; Williams, E.; Rosenfeld, D.; Fischer, D.; Fischer, J.; Kremic, T.; Agrawal, A.; Andreae, M.; Bierbaum, R.; Blakeslee, R.; Boerner, A.; Bowles, N.; Christian, H.; Dunion, J.; Horvath, A.; Huang, X.; Khain, A.; Kinne, S.; Lemos, M.-C.; Penner, J.

    2012-04-01

    The formation of cloud droplets on aerosol particles, technically known as the activation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), is the fundamental process driving the interactions of aerosols with clouds and precipitation. Knowledge of these interactions is foundational to our understanding of weather and climate. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Decadal Survey (NRC 2007) indicate that the uncertainty in how clouds adjust to aerosol perturbations dominates the uncertainty in the overall quantification of the radiative forcing attributable to human activities. The Clouds, Hazards, and Aerosols Survey for Earth Researchers (CHASER) mission concept responds to the IPCC and Decadal Survey concerns by studying the activation of CCN and their interactions with clouds and storms. CHASER proposes to revolutionize our understanding of the interactions of aerosols with clouds by making the first global measurements of the fundamental physical entity linking them: activated cloud condensation nuclei. The CHASER mission was conceptualized to measure all quantities necessary for determining the interactions of aerosols with clouds and storms. Measurements by current satellites allow the determination of crude profiles of cloud particle size but not of the activated CCN that seed them. CHASER uses a new technique (Freud et al. 2011; Rosenfeld et al. 2012) and high-heritage instruments to produce the first global maps of activated CCN and the properties of the clouds associated with them. CHASER measures the CCN concentration and cloud thermodynamic forcing simultaneously, allowing their effects to be distinguished. Changes in the behavior of a group of weather systems in which only one of the quantities varies (a partial derivative of the intensity with the desirable quantity) allow the determination of each effect statistically. The high uncertainties of current climate predictions limit their much-needed use in decision-making. CHASER mitigates this

  6. The contribution of China’s emissions to global climate forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Bengang; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Hauglustaine, Didier; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Chen, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Laurent Zhaoxin; Li, Yue; Liu, Hongyan; Liu, Junfeng; Peng, Shushi; Shen, Zehao; Sun, Zhenzhong; Wang, Rong; Wang, Tao; Yin, Guodong; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhou, Feng

    2016-03-01

    Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on “common but differentiated responsibilities” reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development, accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols, but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry-climate model and a chemistry and transport model to quantify China’s present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% ± 4% of the current global radiative forcing. China’s relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% ± 2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% ± 6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China’s strongest contributions are 0.16 ± 0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, -0.11 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 ± 0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China’s eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years: a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon.

  7. Simulating Aerosol Indirect Effects with Improved Aerosol-Cloud- Precipitation Representations in a Coupled Regional Climate Model

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Yang; Leung, L. Ruby; Fan, Jiwen

    2016-04-27

    This is a collaborative project among North Carolina State University, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego to address the critical need for an accurate representation of aerosol indirect effect in climate and Earth system models. In this project, we propose to develop and improve parameterizations of aerosol-cloud-precipitation feedbacks in climate models and apply them to study the effect of aerosols and clouds on radiation and hydrologic cycle. Our overall objective is to develop, improve, and evaluate parameterizations to enable more accurate simulations of these feedbacks in high resolution regional and global climate models.

  8. Climate forcing growth rates: doubling down on our Faustian bargain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko

    2013-03-01

    , in causing a large increase in net primary productivity of temperate and boreal forests. Sulfate aerosols from coal burning also might increase carbon uptake by increasing the proportion of diffuse insolation, as noted above for Pinatubo aerosols, even though the total solar radiation reaching the surface is reduced. Thus we see the decreased CO2 airborne fraction since 2000 as sharing some of the same causes as the decreased airborne fraction after the Pinatubo eruption (figure 3). CO2 fertilization is likely the major effect, as a plausible addition of 5 TgN yr-1 from fossil fuels and net ecosystem productivity of 200 kgC kgN-1 (Magnani et al 2007, 2008) yields an annual carbon drawdown of 1 GtC yr-1, which is of the order of what is needed to explain the post-2000 anomaly in airborne CO2. However, an aerosol-induced increase of diffuse radiation might also contribute. Although tropospheric aerosol properties are not accurately monitored, there are suggestions of an upward trend of stratospheric background aerosols since 2000 (Hofmann et al 2009, Solomon et al 2011), which could be a consequence of more tropospheric aerosols at low latitudes where injection of tropospheric air into the stratosphere occurs (Holton et al 1995). We discuss climate implications of the reduced CO2 airborne fraction after presenting data for other greenhouse gases. Atmospheric CH4 is increasing more slowly than in IPCC scenarios (figure 4), which were defined more than a decade ago (IPCC 2001). However, after remaining nearly constant for several years, CH4 has increased during the past five years, pushing slightly above the level that was envisaged in the Alternative Scenario of Hansen et al (2000). Reduction of CH4, besides slowdown in CO2 growth in the twenty first century and a decline of CO2 in the twenty second century, is a principal requirement to achieve a low climate forcing that stabilizes climate, in part because CH4 also affects tropospheric ozone and stratospheric water

  9. Spatial variations in immediate greenhouse gases and aerosol emissions and resulting radiative forcing from wildfires in interior Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Shengli; Liu, Heping; Dahal, Devendra; Jin, Suming; Li, Shuang; Liu, Shuguang

    2016-02-01

    Boreal fires can cool the climate; however, this conclusion came from individual fires and may not represent the whole story. We hypothesize that the climatic impact of boreal fires depends on local landscape heterogeneity such as burn severity, prefire vegetation type, and soil properties. To test this hypothesis, spatially explicit emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols and their resulting radiative forcing are required as an important and necessary component towards a full assessment. In this study, we integrated remote sensing (Landsat and MODIS) and models (carbon consumption model, emission factors model, and radiative forcing model) to calculate the carbon consumption, GHGs and aerosol emissions, and their radiative forcing of 2001-2010 fires at 30 m resolution in the Yukon River Basin of Alaska. Total carbon consumption showed significant spatial variation, with a mean of 2,615 g C m-2 and a standard deviation of 2,589 g C m-2. The carbon consumption led to different amounts of GHGs and aerosol emissions, ranging from 593.26 Tg (CO2) to 0.16 Tg (N2O). When converted to equivalent CO2 based on global warming potential metric, the maximum 20 years equivalent CO2 was black carbon (713.77 Tg), and the lowest 20 years equivalent CO2 was organic carbon (-583.13 Tg). The resulting radiative forcing also showed significant spatial variation: CO2, CH4, and N2O can cause a 20-year mean radiative forcing of 7.41 W m-2 with a standard deviation of 2.87 W m-2. This emission forcing heterogeneity indicates that different boreal fires have different climatic impacts. When considering the spatial variation of other forcings, such as surface shortwave forcing, we may conclude that some boreal fires, especially boreal deciduous fires, can warm the climate.

  10. EVALUATION OF ACOUSTIC FORCES ON A PARTICLE IN AEROSOL MEDIUM

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, S; Richard Dimenna, R

    2007-09-27

    The acoustic force exerted on a solid particle was evaluated to develop a fundamental understanding of the critical physical parameters or constraints affecting particle motion and capture in a collecting device. The application of an acoustic force to the collection of a range of submicron-to-micron particles in a highly turbulent airflow stream laden with solid particles was evaluated in the presence of other assisting and competing forces. This scoping estimate was based on the primary acoustic force acting directly on particles in a dilute aerosol system, neglecting secondary interparticle effects such as agglomeration of the sub-micron particles. A simplified analysis assuming a stable acoustic equilibrium with an infinite sound speed in the solid shows that for a solid-laden air flow in the presence of a standing wave, particles will move toward the nearest node. The results also show that the turbulent drag force on a 1-{micro}m particle resulting from eddy motion is dominant when compared with the electrostatic force or the ultrasonic acoustic force. At least 180 dB acoustic pressure level at 1 MHz is required for the acoustic force to be comparable to the electrostatic or turbulent drag forces in a high-speed air stream. It is noted that particle size and pressure amplitude are dominant parameters for the acoustic force. When acoustic pressure level becomes very large, the acoustic energy will heat up the surrounding air medium, which may cause air to expand. With an acoustic power of about 600 watts applied to a 2000-lpm air flow, the air temperature can increase by as much as 15 C at the exit of the collector.

  11. Climate forcings of past droughts in the Czech Lands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mikšovský, Jiří; Trnka, Miroslav; Brázdil, Rudolf

    2015-04-01

    Frequency and intensity of local droughts is governed by a complex interaction of diverse processes, originating from internal dynamics of the climate system as well as its responses to external forcings. Separating and quantifying the effects of individual drought-inducing agents is a nontrivial task, often approached via statistical methods. In this presentation, we employ multiple linear regression to identify components attributable to various forcing factors, both external (solar irradiance, volcanic activity, anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols) and internal (NAO, ENSO, AMO), in the monthly series of selected drought indices (PDSI, Z-index, SPI, SPEI) calculated for the territory of the recent Czech Republic during the 1883-2010 period. Moving block bootstrap is used for evaluation of the statistical significance of the results. Our analysis, carried out for drought index series characterizing a country-wide average as well as ten individual locations, suggests presence of a distinct component correlated with anthropogenic forcing (driven largely by the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases) in the temperature-sensitive drought indices (PDSI, Z-index, SPEI). There are also indications of an influence of major volcanic eruptions in some of the Czech drought series, whereas variations of solar activity do not seem to leave a significant imprint. Of the major oscillatory modes in the climate system, North Atlantic Oscillation can be linked to a relatively strong component in most of the drought characteristics. Effects of ENSO, while generally weaker and scattered, are also detectable. No significant relation to Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation phase was found.

  12. Global Observations of Aerosols and Clouds from Combined Lidar and Passive Instruments to Improve Radiation Budget and Climate Studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Winker, David M.

    1999-01-01

    Current uncertainties in the effects of clouds and aerosols on the Earth radiation budget limit our understanding of the climate system and the potential for global climate change. Pathfinder Instruments for Cloud and Aerosol Spaceborne Observations - Climatologie Etendue des Nuages et des Aerosols (PICASSO-CENA) is a recently approved satellite mission within NASA's Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP) program which will address these uncertainties with a unique suite of active and passive instruments. The Lidar In-space Technology Experiment (LITE) demonstrated the potential benefits of space lidar for studies of clouds and aerosols. PICASSO-CENA builds on this experience with a payload consisting of a two-wavelength polarization-sensitive lidar, an oxygen A-band spectrometer (ABS), an imaging infrared radiometer (IIR), and a wide field camera (WFC). Data from these instruments will be used to measure the vertical distributions of aerosols and clouds in the atmosphere, as well as optical and physical properties of aerosols and clouds which influence the Earth radiation budget. PICASSO-CENA will be flown in formation with the PM satellite of the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) to provide a comprehensive suite of coincident measurements of atmospheric state, aerosol and cloud optical properties, and radiative fluxes. The mission will address critical uncertainties iin the direct radiative forcing of aerosols and clouds as well as aerosol influences on cloud radiative properties and cloud-climate radiation feedbacks. PICASSO-CENA is planned for a three year mission, with a launch in early 2003. PICASSO-CENA is being developed within the framework of a collaboration between NASA and CNES.

  13. Offsetting features of climate responses to anthropogenic sulfate and black carbon direct radiative forcings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ocko, I.; Ramaswamy, V.

    2012-12-01

    The two most prominent anthropogenic aerosols—sulfate and black carbon—affect Earth's radiation budget in opposing ways. Here we examine how these aerosols independently impact the climate, by simulating climate responses from pre-industrial times (1860) to present-day (2000) for isolated sulfate and black carbon direct radiative forcings. The NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1 global climate model is employed with prescribed distributions of externally mixed aerosols. We find that sulfate and black carbon induce opposite effects for a myriad of climate variables. Sulfate (black carbon) is generally cooling (warming), shifts the ITCZ southward (northward), reduces (enhances) the SH Hadley Cell, enhances (reduces) the NH Hadley Cell, and increases (decreases) total sea ice volume. Individually, sulfate and black carbon affect Hadley Cell circulation more than long-lived greenhouse gases, but the net aerosol effect is a weakened response due to opposite behaviors somewhat canceling out the individual effects. Because anthropogenic aerosols are a critical contributor to Earth's climate conditions, this study has implications for future climate changes as well.

  14. Volcanic forcing for climate modeling: a new microphysics-based data set covering years 1600-present

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arfeuille, F.; Weisenstein, D.; Mack, H.; Rozanov, E.; Peter, T.; Brönnimann, S.

    2014-02-01

    As the understanding and representation of the impacts of volcanic eruptions on climate have improved in the last decades, uncertainties in the stratospheric aerosol forcing from large eruptions are now linked not only to visible optical depth estimates on a global scale but also to details on the size, latitude and altitude distributions of the stratospheric aerosols. Based on our understanding of these uncertainties, we propose a new model-based approach to generating a volcanic forcing for general circulation model (GCM) and chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations. This new volcanic forcing, covering the 1600-present period, uses an aerosol microphysical model to provide a realistic, physically consistent treatment of the stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Twenty-six eruptions were modeled individually using the latest available ice cores aerosol mass estimates and historical data on the latitude and date of eruptions. The evolution of aerosol spatial and size distribution after the sulfur dioxide discharge are hence characterized for each volcanic eruption. Large variations are seen in hemispheric partitioning and size distributions in relation to location/date of eruptions and injected SO2 masses. Results for recent eruptions show reasonable agreement with observations. By providing these new estimates of spatial distributions of shortwave and long-wave radiative perturbations, this volcanic forcing may help to better constrain the climate model responses to volcanic eruptions in the 1600-present period. The final data set consists of 3-D values (with constant longitude) of spectrally resolved extinction coefficients, single scattering albedos and asymmetry factors calculated for different wavelength bands upon request. Surface area densities for heterogeneous chemistry are also provided.

  15. Atmospheric impact of the 1783A~é 1784 Laki Eruption: Part II Climatic effect of sulphate aerosol

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Highwood, E.-J.; Stevenson, D. S.

    2003-08-01

    The long 1783-1784 eruption of Laki in southern Iceland, was one of the first eruptions to have been linked to an observed climate anomaly, having been held responsible for cold temperatures over much of the Northern Hemisphere in the period 1783-1785. Results from the first climate model simulation of the impact of a similar eruption to that of 1783-1784 are presented. Using sulphate aerosol fields produced in a companion chemical transport model simulation by Stevenson et al. (2003), the radiative forcing and climate response due to the aerosol are calculated here using the Reading Intermediate General Circulation Model (IGCM). The peak Northern Hemisphere mean direct radiative forcing is -5.5 Wm-2 in August 1783. The radiative forcing dies away quickly as the emissions from the volcano decrease; however, a small forcing remains over the Mediterranean until March 1784. There is little forcing in the Southern Hemisphere. There is shown to be an uncertainty of at least 50% in the direct radiative forcing due to assumptions concerning relative humidity and the sophistication of the radiative transfer code used. The indirect effects of the Laki aerosol are potentially large but essentially unquantifiable at the present time. In the IGCM at least, the aerosol from the eruption produces a climate response that is spatially very variable. The Northern Hemisphere mean temperature anomaly averaged over the whole of the calendar year containing most of the eruption is -0.21 K, statistically significant at the 95% level and in reasonable agreement with the available observations of the temperature during 1783.

  16. Air pollution and climate response to aerosol direct radiative ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Decadal hemispheric Weather Research and Forecast-Community Multiscale Air Quality simulations from 1990 to 2010 were conducted to examine the meteorology and air quality responses to the aerosol direct radiative effects. The model's performance for the simulation of hourly surface temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and direction was evaluated through comparison with observations from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center Integrated Surface Data. The inclusion of aerosol direct radiative effects improves the model's ability to reproduce the trend in daytime temperature range which over the past two decades was increasing in eastern China but decreasing in eastern U.S. and Europe. Trends and spatial and diurnal variations of the surface-level gaseous and particle concentrations to the aerosol direct effect were analyzed. The inclusion of aerosol direct radiative effects was found to increase the surface-level concentrations of SO2, NO2, O3, SO42−, NO3−, and particulate matter 2.5 in eastern China, eastern U.S., and Europe by 1.5–2.1%, 1–1.5%, 0.1–0.3%, 1.6–2.3%, 3.5–10.0%, and 2.2–3.2%, respectively, on average over the entire 21 year period. However, greater impacts are noted during polluted days with increases of 7.6–10.6%, 6.2–6.7%, 2.0–3.0%, 7.8–9.5%, 11.1–18.6%, and 7.2–10.1%, respectively. Due to the aerosol direct radiative effects, stabilizing of the atmosphere associated with reduced planetary boundary layer height a

  17. Direct Radiative Forcing Due to Carbonaceous Aerosols in Biomass Burning Emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saleh, R.; Marks, M.; Heo, J.; Adams, P. J.; Donahue, N. M.; Robinson, A. L.

    2014-12-01

    Most climate forcing calculations treat black carbon (BC) as the only carbonaceous particulate light-absorber. Numerous studies have shown that some organic aerosols (OA), mainly associated with biomass burning emissions, contain significant amounts of light-absorbing brown carbon (BrC). However, the light absorption properties of biomass burning OA are poorly constrained, complicating its representation in climate models. During the Fire Laboratory at Missoula Experiment (FLAME 4), we conducted experiments to characterize the light absorption properties of OA in emissions of globally important biomass fuels. We showed that the effective absorptivity of OA depends largely on burn conditions, not fuel type, and derived a parameterization that links OA absorptivity to the BC-to-OA ratio of the emissions (Nature Geoscience, DOI:10.1038/ngeo2220). Here, we utilize this parameterization to estimate the direct radiative effect (DRE) of carbonaceous aerosols in biomass burning emissions using a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) and a column radiative transfer model (libRadTran). The simulations were performed for the year 2005. Monthly-averaged global aerosol concentrations, including BC, OA, inorganic sulfates and nitrates, sea salt, and mineral dust, were obtained from GEOS-Chem simulations. Concentrations of BC and OA from biomass burning emissions were determined by running two GEOS-Chem simulations, one with and one without biomass burning emissions. We attributed the difference in BC and OA concentrations between the two simulations to biomass burning, and could thus calculate the BC-to-OA ratio for biomass burning emissions. libRadTran was used (offline) to calculated DRE due to biomass burning carbonaceous aerosols at each GEOS-Chem grid-cell. Our results show that the global average DRE due to carbonaceous biomass burning emissions increases significantly if light-absorption by OA is considered (using our parameterization for OA absorptivity), compared

  18. Intensification of North American Megadroughts through Surface and Dust Aerosol Forcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Seager, Richard; Miller, Ron L.; Mason, Joseph A

    2013-01-01

    Tree-ring-based reconstructions of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) indicate that, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the central plains of North America experienced recurrent periods of drought spanning decades or longer. These megadroughts had exceptional persistence compared to more recent events, but the causes remain uncertain. The authors conducted a suite of general circulation model experiments to test the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) and land surface forcing on the MCA megadroughts over the central plains. The land surface forcing is represented as a set of dune mobilization boundary conditions, derived from available geomorphological evidence and modeled as increased bare soil area and a dust aerosol source (32deg-44degN, 105deg-95degW). In the experiments, cold tropical Pacific SST forcing suppresses precipitation over the central plains but cannot reproduce the overall drying or persistence seen in the PDSI reconstruction. Droughts in the scenario with dust aerosols, however, are amplified and have significantly longer persistence than in other model experiments, more closely matching the reconstructed PDSI. This additional drying occurs because the dust increases the shortwave planetary albedo, reducing energy inputs to the surface and boundary layer. The energy deficit increases atmospheric stability, inhibiting convection and reducing cloud cover and precipitation over the central plains. Results from this study provide the first model-based evidence that dust aerosol forcing and land surface changes could have contributed to the intensity and persistence of the central plains megadroughts, although uncertainties remain in the formulation of the boundary conditions and the future importance of these feedbacks.

  19. Global climate impacts of country-level primary carbonaceous aerosol from solid-fuel cookstove emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lacey, Forrest; Henze, Daven

    2015-11-01

    Cookstove use is globally one of the largest unregulated anthropogenic sources of primary carbonaceous aerosol. While reducing cookstove emissions through national-scale mitigation efforts has clear benefits for improving indoor and ambient air quality, and significant climate benefits from reduced green-house gas emissions, climate impacts associated with reductions to co-emitted black (BC) and organic carbonaceous aerosol are not well characterized. Here we attribute direct, indirect, semi-direct, and snow/ice albedo radiative forcing (RF) and associated global surface temperature changes to national-scale carbonaceous aerosol cookstove emissions. These results are made possible through the use of adjoint sensitivity modeling to relate direct RF and BC deposition to emissions. Semi- and indirect effects are included via global scaling factors, and bounds on these estimates are drawn from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. Absolute regional temperature potentials are used to estimate global surface temperature changes. Bounds are placed on these estimates, drawing from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. We estimate a range of 0.16 K warming to 0.28 K cooling with a central estimate of 0.06 K cooling from the removal of cookstove aerosol emissions. At the national emissions scale, countries’ impacts on global climate range from net warming (e.g., Mexico and Brazil) to net cooling, although the range of estimated impacts for all countries span zero given uncertainties in RF estimates and fuel characterization. We identify similarities and differences in the sets of countries with the highest emissions and largest cookstove temperature impacts (China, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal), those with the largest temperature impact per carbon emitted (Kazakhstan, Estonia, and Mongolia), and those that would provide the

  20. The Model Intercomparison Project on the Climatic Response to Volcanic Forcing (VolMIP): Experimental Design and Forcing Input Data for CMIP6

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zanchettin, Davide; Khodri, Myriam; Timmreck, Claudia; Toohey, Matthew; Schmidt, Anja; Gerber, Edwin P.; Hegerl, Gabriele; Robock, Alan; Pausata, Francesco; Ball, William T.; Bauer, Susanne E.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-01-01

    The enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer by volcanic eruptions induces a complex set of responses causing global and regional climate effects on a broad range of timescales. Uncertainties exist regarding the climatic response to strong volcanic forcing identified in coupled climate simulations that contributed to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In order to better understand the sources of these model diversities, the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP) has defined a coordinated set of idealized volcanic perturbation experiments to be carried out in alignment with the CMIP6 protocol. VolMIP provides a common stratospheric aerosol data set for each experiment to minimize differences in the applied volcanic forcing. It defines a set of initial conditions to assess how internal climate variability contributes to determining the response. VolMIP will assess to what extent volcanically forced responses of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system are robustly simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate models and identify the causes that limit robust simulated behavior, especially differences in the treatment of physical processes. This paper illustrates the design of the idealized volcanic perturbation experiments in the VolMIP protocol and describes the common aerosol forcing input data sets to be used.

  1. Asian aerosols: current and year 2030 distributions and implications to human health and regional climate change.

    PubMed

    Carmichael, Gregory R; Adhikary, Bhupesh; Kulkarni, Sarika; D'Allura, Alessio; Tang, Youhua; Streets, David; Zhang, Qiang; Bond, Tami C; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran; Jamroensan, Aditsuda; Marrapu, Pallavi

    2009-08-01

    Aerosol distributions in Asia calculated over a 4-year period and constrained by satellite observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) are presented. Vast regions in Asia that include > 80% of the population have PM2.5 concentrations that exceed on an annual basis the WHO guideline of 10 microg/m3, often by factors of 2 to 4. These high aerosol loadings also have important radiative effects, causing a significant dimming at the surface, and mask approximately 45% of the warming by greenhouse gases. Black carbon (BC) concentrations are high throughout Asia, representing 5-10% of the total AOD, and contributing significantly to atmospheric warming (its warming potential is approximately 55% of that due to CO2). PM levels and AODs in year 2030, estimated based on simulations that consider future changes in emissions, are used to explore opportunities for win-win strategies built upon addressing air quality and climate change together. It is found that in 2030 the PM2.5 levels in significant parts of Asia will increase and exacerbate health impacts; but the aerosols will have a larger masking effect on radiative forcing, due to a decrease in BC and an increase in SO2 emissions.

  2. Forcing of Climate Variations by Mev-gev Particles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tinsley, Brian A.

    1990-01-01

    Changes in ionization production in the lower stratosphere by a few percent during Forbush decreases have been shown to correlate well with changes in winter tropospheric dynamics by a similar relatively small amount. Changes in ionization production by tens of percent on the decadal time scale have been shown to be correlated with changes in winter storm frequencies by tens of percent in the western North Atlantic. Changes in total solar irradiance or solar UV do not have time variations to match the tropospheric variations on the day to day time scales discussed here. Forcing related to magnetic activity is not supported. Thus solar wind/MeV-GeV particle changes appear to be the only viable forcing function for these day to day variations. If solar wind/particle forcing of a few percent amplitude can produce short term weather responses, then observed changes by tens of percent on the decadal and centennial time scale could produce climate changes on these longer time scales. The changes in circulation involved would produce regional climate changes, as observed. At present the relations between stratospheric ionization, electric fields and chemistry and aerosol and cloud microphysics are as poorly known as the relations between the latter and storm feedback processes. However, the capability for investigating these relationships now exists and has recently been most successfully used for elucidating the stratospheric chemistry and cloud microphysics associated with the Antarctic ozone hole. The economic benefits of being able to predict winter severity on an interannual basis, and the extent to which climate change related to solar variability will add to or substract from the greenhouse effect, should be more than adequate to justify support for research in this area.

  3. The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lenton, T. M.; Vaughan, N. E.

    2009-01-01

    Climate geoengineering proposals seek to rectify the Earth's current radiative imbalance, either by reducing the absorption of incoming solar (shortwave) radiation, or by removing CO2 from the atmosphere and transferring it to long-lived reservoirs, thus increasing outgoing longwave radiation. A fundamental criterion for evaluating geoengineering options is their climate cooling effectiveness, which we quantify here in terms of radiative forcing potential. We use a simple analytical approach, based on the global energy balance and pulse response functions for the decay of CO2 perturbations. This aids transparency compared to calculations with complex numerical models, but is not intended to be definitive. Already it reveals some significant errors in existing calculations, and it allows us to compare the relative effectiveness of a range of proposals. By 2050, only stratospheric aerosol injections or sunshades in space have the potential to cool the climate back toward its pre-industrial state, but some land carbon cycle geoengineering options are of comparable magnitude to mitigation "wedges". Strong mitigation, i.e. large reductions in CO2 emissions, combined with global-scale air capture and storage, afforestation, and bio-char production, i.e. enhanced CO2 sinks, might be able to bring CO2 back to its pre-industrial level by 2100, thus removing the need for other geoengineering. Alternatively, strong mitigation stabilising CO2 at 500 ppm, combined with geoengineered increases in the albedo of marine stratiform clouds, grasslands, croplands and human settlements might achieve a patchy cancellation of radiative forcing. Ocean fertilisation options are only worthwhile if sustained on a millennial timescale and phosphorus addition probably has greater long-term potential than iron or nitrogen fertilisation. Enhancing ocean upwelling or downwelling have trivial effects on any meaningful timescale. Our approach provides a common framework for the evaluation of

  4. The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lenton, T. M.; Vaughan, N. E.

    2009-08-01

    Climate geoengineering proposals seek to rectify the Earth's current and potential future radiative imbalance, either by reducing the absorption of incoming solar (shortwave) radiation, or by removing CO2 from the atmosphere and transferring it to long-lived reservoirs, thus increasing outgoing longwave radiation. A fundamental criterion for evaluating geoengineering options is their climate cooling effectiveness, which we quantify here in terms of radiative forcing potential. We use a simple analytical approach, based on energy balance considerations and pulse response functions for the decay of CO2 perturbations. This aids transparency compared to calculations with complex numerical models, but is not intended to be definitive. It allows us to compare the relative effectiveness of a range of proposals. We consider geoengineering options as additional to large reductions in CO2 emissions. By 2050, some land carbon cycle geoengineering options could be of comparable magnitude to mitigation "wedges", but only stratospheric aerosol injections, albedo enhancement of marine stratocumulus clouds, or sunshades in space have the potential to cool the climate back toward its pre-industrial state. Strong mitigation, combined with global-scale air capture and storage, afforestation, and bio-char production, i.e. enhanced CO2 sinks, might be able to bring CO2 back to its pre-industrial level by 2100, thus removing the need for other geoengineering. Alternatively, strong mitigation stabilising CO2 at 500 ppm, combined with geoengineered increases in the albedo of marine stratiform clouds, grasslands, croplands and human settlements might achieve a patchy cancellation of radiative forcing. Ocean fertilisation options are only worthwhile if sustained on a millennial timescale and phosphorus addition may have greater long-term potential than iron or nitrogen fertilisation. Enhancing ocean upwelling or downwelling have trivial effects on any meaningful timescale. Our approach

  5. Radiative flux and forcing parameterization error in aerosol-free clear skies

    DOE PAGES

    Pincus, Robert; Mlawer, Eli J.; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; ...

    2015-07-03

    This article reports on the accuracy in aerosol- and cloud-free conditions of the radiation parameterizations used in climate models. Accuracy is assessed relative to observationally validated reference models for fluxes under present-day conditions and forcing (flux changes) from quadrupled concentrations of carbon dioxide. Agreement among reference models is typically within 1 W/m2, while parameterized calculations are roughly half as accurate in the longwave and even less accurate, and more variable, in the shortwave. Absorption of shortwave radiation is underestimated by most parameterizations in the present day and has relatively large errors in forcing. Error in present-day conditions is essentially unrelatedmore » to error in forcing calculations. Recent revisions to parameterizations have reduced error in most cases. As a result, a dependence on atmospheric conditions, including integrated water vapor, means that global estimates of parameterization error relevant for the radiative forcing of climate change will require much more ambitious calculations.« less

  6. Climate-relevant physical properties of molecular constituents relevant for isoprene-derived secondary organic aerosol material

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Upshur, M. A.; Strick, B. F.; McNeill, V. F.; Thomson, R. J.; Geiger, F. M.

    2014-06-01

    Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) particles, formed from gas-phase biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), contribute large uncertainties to the radiative forcing that is associated with aerosols in the climate system. Reactive uptake of surface-active organic oxidation products of BVOCs at the gas-aerosol interface can potentially decrease the overall aerosol surface tension and therefore influence their propensity to act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Here, we synthesize and measure some climate-relevant physical properties of SOA particle constituents consisting of the isoprene oxidation products α-, δ-, and cis- and {trans-β-IEPOX (isoprene epoxide), as well as syn- and anti-2-methyltetraol. Following viscosity measurements, we use octanol-water partition coefficients to quantify the relative hydrophobicity of the oxidation products while dynamic surface tension measurements indicate that aqueous solutions of α- and trans-β-IEPOX exhibit significant surface tension depression. We hypothesize that the surface activity of these compounds may enhance aerosol CCN activity, and that trans-β-IEPOX may be highly relevant for surface chemistry of aerosol particles relative to other IEPOX isomers.

  7. Global aerosol formation and revised radiative forcing based on CERN CLOUD data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gordon, H.; Carslaw, K. S.; Sengupta, K.; Dunne, E. M.; Kirkby, J.

    2015-12-01

    New particle formation in the atmosphere accounts for 40-70% of global cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). It is a complex process involving many precursors: sulphuric acid, ions, ammonia, and a wide range of natural and anthropogenic organic molecules. The CLOUD laboratory chamber experiment at CERN allows the contributions of different compounds to be disentangled in a uniquely well-controlled environment. To date, CLOUD has measured over 500 formation rates (Riccobono 2014, Kirkby 2015, Dunne 2015), under conditions representative of the planetary boundary layer and free troposphere. To understand the sensitivity of the climate to anthropogenic atmospheric aerosols, we must quantify historical aerosol radiative forcing. This requires an understanding of pre-industrial aerosol sources. Here we show pre-industrial nucleation over land usually involves organic molecules in the very first steps of cluster formation. The complexity of the organic vapors is a major challenge for theoretical approaches. Furthermore, with fewer sulphuric acid and ammonia molecules available to stabilize nucleating clusters in the pre-industrial atmosphere, ions from radon or galactic cosmic rays were probably more important than they are today. Parameterizations of particle formation rates determined in CLOUD as a function of precursor concentrations, temperature and ions are being used to refine the GLOMAP aerosol model (Spracklen 2005). The model simulates the growth, transport and loss of particles, translating nucleation rates to CCN concentrations. This allows us to better understand the effects of pre-industrial and present-day particle formation. I will present new results on global CCN based on CLOUD data, including estimates of anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing, currently the most uncertain driver of climate change (IPCC 2013). References: Riccobono, F. et al, Science 344 717 (2014); Kirkby, J. et al, in review; Dunne, E. et al, in preparation; Spracklen, D. et al, Atmos

  8. Improved attribution of climate forcing to emissions by pollutant and sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shindell, D. T.

    2009-12-01

    Evaluating multi-component climate change mitigation strategies requires knowledge of the diverse direct and indirect effects of emissions. Methane, ozone and aerosols are linked through atmospheric chemistry so that emissions of a single pollutant can affect several species. I will show new calculations of atmospheric composition changes, radiative forcing, and the global warming potential (GWP) for increased emissions of tropospheric ozone and aerosol precursors in a coupled composition-climate model. The results demonstrate that gas-aerosol interactions substantially alter the relative importance of the various emissions, suggesting revisions to the GWPs used in international carbon trading. Additionally, I will present results showing how the net climate impact of particular activities depends strongly upon non-CO2 forcing agents for some sectors. These results will be highlighted by discussing the interplay between air quality emissions controls and climate for the case of emissions from coal-fired power plants. The changing balance between CO2 and air quality pollutants from coal plants may have contributed to the 20th century spatial and temporal patterns of climate change, and is likely to continue to do so as more and more plants are constructed in Asia.

  9. Secondary inorganic aerosol formation and its shortwave direct radiative forcing in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Xin

    2015-04-01

    Secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA), including sulfate, nitrate and ammonium, is an important part of fine particle. SIA plays a significant role in shortwave radiation transfer. Numerical simulation is usually used to study SIA formation and its climate effect. In this work, we used the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to study SIA formation and its direct radiative forcing (DRF) over China. SO2 oxidation pathways related to mineral aerosol, including transition metal-catalyzed oxidation in aqueous phase and heterogeneous reactions, play an important role in sulfate production, but they are not well treated in current atmospheric models. In this work, we improved the WRF-Chem model by simulating the enhancement role of mineral aerosol in sulfate production. Firstly, we estimated mineral cations based on local measurements in order to well represent aqueous phase acidity. Secondly, we scaled the transition metal concentration to the mineral aerosol levels according to the existing observations and improved transition metal-catalyzed oxidation calculation. Lastly, heterogeneous reactions of acid gases on the surface of mineral aerosol were included in this simulation. Accuracy in the prediction of sulfate by the model was significantly improved and we concluded that mineral aerosol can facilitate SO2 oxidation and subsequent sulfate formation. It was demonstrated that, over China, mineral aerosol was responsible for 21.8% of annual mean sulfate concentration. The enhanced aqueous oxidation was more significant compared to the heterogeneous reactions. In winter, mineral aerosol was responsible for 39.6% of sulfate production. In summer, gaseous oxidation and aqueous oxidation of SO2 by hydrogen peroxide and ozone were the dominant pathways of sulfate formation. Mineral aerosol only contributed 11.9% to the total sulfate production. The increase in annual mean sulfate concentration due to mineral aerosol could reach up to over 6

  10. Seasonal differences in aerosol abundance and radiative forcing in months of contrasting emissions and rainfall over northern South Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sadavarte, P.; Venkataraman, C.; Cherian, R.; Patil, N.; Madhavan, B. L.; Gupta, T.; Kulkarni, S.; Carmichael, G. R.; Adhikary, B.

    2016-01-01

    A modeling framework was used to examine gaps in understanding of seasonal and spatial heterogeneity in aerosol abundance and radiative forcing over northern South Asia, whose glimpses are revealed in observational studies. Regionally representative emissions were used in chemical transport model simulations at a spatial resolution of 60 × 60 km2, in April, July and September, chosen as months of contrasting emissions and rainfall. Modeled aerosol abundance in northern South Asia was predominantly found to be dust and carbonaceous in April, dust and sulfate in July and sulfate and carbonaceous in September. Anthropogenic aerosols arose from energy-use emissions (from industrial sources, residential biofuel cooking, brick kilns) in all months, additionally from field burning in April, and incursion from East Asia in September. In April, carbonaceous aerosols were abundant from open burning of agricultural fields even at high altitude locations (Godavari), and of forests in the eastern Gangetic Plain (Kolkata). Direct radiative forcing and heating rate, calculated from OPAC-SBDART, using modeled aerosol fields, and corrected by MODIS AOD observations, showed regionally uniform atmospheric forcing in April, compared to that in other months, influenced by both dust and black carbon abundance. A strong spatial heterogeneity of radiative forcing and heating rate was found, with factor of 2.5-3.5 lower atmospheric forcing over the Tibet plateau than that over the Ganga Plain and Northwest in July and September. However, even over the remote Tibet plateau, there was significant anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric forcing and heating rate (45% in Apr, 75% in Sep). Wind fields showed black carbon transport from south Asia in April and east Asia in September. Further evaluation of the transport of dust and anthropogenic emissions from various source regions and their deposition in the Himalaya and Tibet, is important in understanding regional air quality and climate

  11. Chemistry-climate interactions of aerosol nitrate from lightning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tost, Holger

    2017-01-01

    Lightning represents one of the dominant emission sources for NOx in the troposphere. The direct release of oxidised nitrogen in the upper troposphere does not only affect ozone formation, but also chemical and microphysical properties of aerosol particles in this region. This study investigates the direct impact of LNOx emissions on upper-tropospheric nitrate using a global chemistry climate model. The simulation results show a substantial influence of the lightning emissions on the mixing ratios of nitrate aerosol in the upper troposphere of more than 50 %. In addition to the impact on nitrate, lightning substantially affects the oxidising capacity of the atmosphere with substantial implications for gas-phase sulfate formation and new particle formation in the upper troposphere. In conjunction with the condensation of nitrates, substantial differences in the aerosol size distribution occur in the upper troposphere as a consequence of lightning. This has implications for the extinction properties of the aerosol particles and for the cloud optical properties. While the extinction is generally slightly enhanced due to the LNOx emissions, the response of the clouds is ambiguous due to compensating effects in both liquid and ice clouds. Resulting shortwave flux perturbations are of ˜ -100 mW m-2 as determined from several sensitivity scenarios, but an uncertainty range of almost 50 % has to be defined due to the large internal variability of the system and the uncertainties in the multitude of involved processes. Despite the clear statistical significance of the influence of lightning on the nitrate concentrations, the robustness of the findings gradually decreases towards the determination of the radiative flux perturbations.

  12. Understanding the Rapid Precipitation Response to CO2 and Aerosol Forcing on a Regional Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richardson, Thomas; Forster, Piers; Parker, Doug; Andrews, Tim

    2015-04-01

    Regional precipitation change is one of the most uncertain aspects of climate change prediction, and can have major societal implications. On a global scale, precipitation is tightly constrained by the radiative cooling of the troposphere. As a result, precipitation exhibits a significant rapid adjustment in response to certain forcing agents, which is important for understanding long term climate change. However, the mechanisms which drive the spatial pattern of rapid adjustment are not well understood. In this study we analyze the spatial pattern of rapid precipitation change using simulations with fixed sea surface temperature. Using data obtained from sixteen models participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we investigate the response to three different forcing scenarios; an abrupt quadrupling of CO2, an increase in all aerosols, and an increase in sulphate aerosol from pre-industrial to present day levels. Analysis of the local atmospheric energy budget is used to understand the observed changes. We find that the spatial pattern of rapid precipitation adjustment due to forcing is primarily driven by the rapid land surface response. As a result, the spatial pattern due to quadrupling CO2 opposes that due to increased sulphate and increased all aerosols. Increasing CO2 levels causes warming of the land surface, due to enhanced downwelling longwave radiation. This destabilizes the atmosphere by warming the lower troposphere, producing an overall shift of convection and precipitation to over land. The reverse is observed for increased sulphate and increased all aerosols. Changes in tropospheric cooling are important in determining the magnitude of regional precipitation change, thereby satisfying global energy budget constraints. We find the spatial pattern of rapid precipitation change due to quadrupling CO2 levels is robust between models. The most significant precipitation changes occur in the tropics, with significant

  13. Easy Aerosol - a model intercomparison project to study aerosol-radiative interactions and their impact on regional climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voigt, A.; Bony, S.; Stevens, B. B.; Boucher, O.; Medeiros, B.; Pincus, R.; Wang, Z.; Zhang, K.; Lewinschal, A.; Bellouin, N.; Yang, Y. M.

    2015-12-01

    Recent studies illustrated the potential of aerosols to change the large-scale atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns, but it remains unclear to what extent the proposed aerosol-induced changes reflect robust model behavior and are affected by the climate system's internal variability. "Easy Aerosol" addresses this question by subjecting nine comprehensive climate models with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) to the same set of idealized "easy" aerosol perturbations. The aerosol perturbations are designed based on a global aerosol climatology and mimic the gravest mode of the anthropogenic aerosol. They both scatter and absorb shortwave radiation, but to focus on direct radiative effects aerosol-cloud interactions are omitted. Each model contributes seven simulations. A clean control case with no aerosol-radiative effects is compared to six perturbed simulations with differing aerosol loading, zonal aerosol distributions, and SSTs. To estimate the role of internal variability, one of the models contributes a 5-member ensemble for each simulation. When observed SSTs from years 1979-2005 are used, the aerosol leads to a local depression of precipitation at the Northern Hemisphere center of the aerosol and a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). This is consistent with the aerosol's shortwave atmospheric heating and the fact that SSTs are fixed. Moreover, the Northern hemisphere mid-latitude jet shifts poleward in the annual and zonal-mean. Due to large natura variability, however, these signals only emerge in ensemble runs or if the aerosol optical depth is increased by a factor of five compared to the observed magnitude of the present-day anthropogenic aerosol. When SSTs are adapted to include the cooling effect of the aerosol, the ITCZ and the Northern hemisphere jet shift southward in the annual and zonal-mean. The models exhibit very similar precipitation and zonal wind changes in response to the SST change, showing

  14. Extensive closed cell marine stratocumulus downwind of Europe—A large aerosol cloud mediated radiative effect or forcing?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goren, Tom; Rosenfeld, Daniel

    2015-06-01

    Marine stratocumulus clouds (MSC) cover large areas over the oceans and possess super sensitivity of their cloud radiative effect to changes in aerosol concentrations. Aerosols can cause transitions between regimes of fully cloudy closed cells and open cells. The possible role of aerosols in cloud cover has a big impact on the amount of reflected solar radiation from the clouds, thus potentially constitutes very large aerosol indirect radiative effect, which can exceed 100 Wm-2. It is hypothesized that continentally polluted clouds remain in closed cells regime for longer time from leaving continent and hence for longer distance away from land, thus occupying larger ocean areas with full cloud cover. Attributing this to anthropogenic aerosols would imply a very large negative radiative forcing with a significant climate impact. This possibility is confirmed by analyzing a detailed case study based on geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite observations of the microphysical and dynamical evolution of MSC. We show that large area of closed cells was formed over the northeast Atlantic Ocean downwind of Europe in a continentally polluted air mass. The closed cells undergo cleansing process that was tracked for 3.5 days that resulted with a rapid transition from closed to open cells once the clouds started drizzling heavily. The mechanism leading to the eventual breakup of the clouds due to both meteorological and aerosol considerations is elucidated. We termed this cleansing and cloud breakup process maritimization. Further study is needed to assess the climatological significance of such situations.

  15. Will black carbon mitigation dampen aerosol indirect forcing?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, W.-T.; Lee, Y. H.; Adams, P. J.; Nenes, A.; Seinfeld, J. H.

    2010-05-01

    If mitigation of black carbon (BC) particulate matter is accompanied by a decrease in particle number emissions, and thereby by a decrease in global cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations, a decrease in global cloud radiative forcing (a reverse “cloud albedo effect”) results. We consider two present-day mitigation scenarios: 50% reduction of primary black carbon/organic carbon (BC/OC) mass and number emissions from fossil fuel combustion (termed HF), and 50% reduction of primary BC/OC mass and number emissions from all primary carbonaceous sources (fossil fuel, domestic biofuel, and biomass burning) (termed HC). Radiative forcing effects of these scenarios are assessed through present-day equilibrium climate simulations. Global average top-of-the-atmosphere changes in radiative forcing for the two scenarios, relative to present day conditions, are +0.13 ± 0.33 W m-2 (HF) and + 0.31 ± 0.33 W m-2 (HC).

  16. Modeling Greenland's Climate Response to the Presence of Biomass Burning Aerosols in the Atmosphere and Snow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, J. L.; Flanner, M.; Bergin, M. H.; Courville, Z.; Dibb, J. E.; Polashenski, C.; Soja, A. J.; Strellis, B. M.

    2015-12-01

    Biomass burning events are known to produce large emissions of aerosol particles, including light-absorbing black carbon (BC) and brown carbon. Once exported from fire-based source regions to the Arctic via atmospheric transport mechanisms, these particles can change the regional climate through solar absorption while suspended at various heights in the atmosphere or once deposited onto the terrain (through the reduction of surface albedo). Greenland is particularly vulnerable to positive aerosol forcing due to its perennial ice cover and high surface albedo. Surface measurements and remote sensing observations indicate that Greenland is occasionally impacted by smoke from North American and Eurasian wildfires, including during the summer of 2011 when aerosol optical depth (AOD) over central Greenland exceeded 0.20 and aerosol single scattering albedo (SSA) dropped below 0.90. Measurements of impurities in snow pits also indicate that wildfires exerted transient influence on surface albedo during the summers of 2012 and 2013, with average peak BC concentrations of 4 and 15 ng/g, respectively. Here, we apply idealized climate simulations to study how Greenland surface temperature and melt are affected by elevated levels of light-absorbing particles above and on the ice sheet. We apply the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in a configuration with prescribed sea surface temperatures and active atmosphere and land model components. In one set of experiments, we prescribe constant values of AOD and SSA in the troposphere over Greenland, informed by measurements from 2011. In a second set of experiments we prescribe constant mass mixing ratios of BC and dust in surface snow based on measurements of snow that fell during 2012-2014. These simulations will inform on the amount of excess snow melt that may occur on Greenland due to biomass burning, and on the relative impacts of atmospheric and snow-deposited smoke.

  17. Climate Response of Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Black Carbon

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chung, Serena H.; Seinfeld,John H.

    2008-01-01

    The equilibrium climate effect of direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic black carbon (BC) is examined by 100-year simulations in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model II-prime coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model. Anthropogenic BC is predicted to raise globally and annually averaged equilibrium surface air temperature by 0.20 K if BC is assumed to be externally mixed. The predicted increase is significantly greater in the Northern Hemisphere (0.29 K) than in the Southern Hemisphere (0.11 K). If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with the present day level of sulfate aerosol, the predicted annual mean surface temperature increase rises to 0.37 K globally, 0.54 K for the Northern Hemisphere, and 0.20 K for the Southern Hemisphere. The climate sensitivity of BC direct radiative forcing is calculated to be 0.6 K W (sup -1) square meters, which is about 70% of that of CO2, independent of the assumption of BC mixing state. The largest surface temperature response occurs over the northern high latitudes during winter and early spring. In the tropics and midlatitudes, the largest temperature increase is predicted to occur in the upper troposphere. Direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic BC is also predicted to lead to a change of precipitation patterns in the tropics; precipitation is predicted to increase between 0 and 20 N and decrease between 0 and 20 S, shifting the intertropical convergence zone northward. If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with sulfate instead of externally mixed, the change in precipitation pattern is enhanced. The change in precipitation pattern is not predicted to alter the global burden of BC significantly because the change occurs predominantly in regions removed from BC sources.

  18. First Estimates of the Radiative Forcing of Aerosols Generated from Biomass Burning using Satellite Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chistopher, Sundar A.; Kliche, Donna V.; Chou, Joyce; Welch, Ronald M.

    1996-01-01

    Collocated measurements from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) scanner are used to examine the radiative forcing of atmospheric aerosols generated from biomass burning for 13 images in South America. Using the AVHRR, Local Area Coverage (LAC) data, a new technique based on a combination of spectral and textural measures is developed for detecting these aerosols. Then, the instantaneous shortwave, longwave, and net radiative forcing values are computed from the ERBE instantaneous scanner data. Results for the selected samples from 13 images show that the mean instantaneous net radiative forcing for areas with heavy aerosol loading is about -36 W/sq m and that for the optically thin aerosols are about -16 W/sq m. These results, although preliminary, provide the first estimates of radiative forcing of atmospheric aerosols from biomass burning using satellite data.

  19. First Estimates of the Radiative Forcing of Aerosols Generated from Biomass Burning Using Satellite Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christopher, Sundar A.; Kliche, Donna A.; Chou, Joyce; Welch, Ronald M.

    1996-01-01

    Collocated measurements from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) scanner are used to examine the radiative forcing of atmospheric aerosols generated from biomass burning for 13 images in South America. Using the AVHRR, Local Area Coverage (LAC) data, a new technique based on a combination of spectral and textural measures is developed for detecting these aerosols. Then, the instantaneous shortwave, longwave, and net radiative forcing values are computed from the ERBE instantaneous scanner data. Results for the selected samples from 13 images show that the mean instantaneous net radiative forcing for areas with heavy aerosol loading is about -36 W/sq m and that for the optically thin aerosols are about -16 W/sq m. These results, although preliminary, provide the first estimates of radiative forcing of atmospheric aerosols from biomass burning using satellite data.

  20. Quantifying the Indirect Effect of Sulfate Aerosol on Climate Change Through the Carbon Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cadule, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Bopp, L.; Piao, S.; Ciais, P.

    2008-12-01

    Elevated atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will continue to warm the Earth's climate in the coming century. Coupled climate-carbon models have demonstrated a significant climate-induced reduction of natural carbon sinks, which acts as a positive feedback on the atmospheric CO2 concentration (between +20 and +220 ppm in 2100, for the SRES A2 emission scenario). Sulfate aerosols are known to affect climate through a radiative direct effect and a series of indirect effects involving the atmospheric water cycle. However, the effects of sulfate aerosols and non-CO2 greenhouse gases were neglected in these coupled climate-carbon cycle models. Here we performed new coupled climate-carbon simulations wherein the evolution of sulfate aerosols and non-CO2 greenhouse gases were explicitly represented. We show a hitherto undocumented indirect effect of aerosols on climate, via the carbon cycle. While sulfate aerosols cool the climate by 0.79°C globally, this cooling reduces land carbon sinks, leaving additional CO2 in the atmosphere. At mid-to-high northern latitudes, the aerosol-induced cooling is responsible for a decline in photosynthesis and land carbon uptake (-63 PgC by 2100). On the other hand, a variety of processes yields increased tropical carbon uptake (+28 PgC) in response to aerosol induced cooling, which is insufficient to balance the decline in the northern hemisphere. Overall, including non- CO2 greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols, in coupled simulations, doubles the additional quantity of CO2 accumulating in the atmosphere due to climate change. Our results demonstrate that any climate mitigation policy that aims to reduce warming via sulfate aerosols must also account for their indirect warming effect, which arises from interactions between climate and the carbon cycle.

  1. Present and potential future contributions of sulfate, black and organic carbon aerosols from China to global air quality, premature mortality and radiative forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saikawa, E.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L. W.; Liu, J.; Mauzerall, D. L.

    2008-12-01

    Aerosols are harmful to human health and have both direct and indirect effects on climate. China is a major contributor to global emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), a sulfate (SO42-) precursor, organic carbon (OC), and black carbon (BC) aerosols. Although increasingly examined, the effect of present and potential future levels of these emissions on global premature mortality and climate change has not been well quantified. Through both direct and indirect effects, SO42- and OC exert negative radiative forcing (cooling) while BC exerts positive forcing (warming). We analyze the effect of China's emissions of SO2, SO42-, OC and BC in 2000 and for three emission scenarios in 2030 on global surface aerosol concentrations, premature mortality, and radiative forcing. Using global models of chemical transport (MOZART-2) and radiative transfer (GFDL RTM), and combining simulation results with gridded population data, mortality rates, and concentration-response relationships from the epidemiological literature, we estimate the contribution of Chinese aerosols to global annual premature mortality and to radiative forcing in 2000 and 2030. In 2000, we estimate these aerosols cause 385,320 premature deaths in China and an additional 18 240 globally. In 2030, aggressive emission controls lead to a reduction in premature deaths to 200,370 in China and 7,740 elsewhere, while under a high emissions scenario premature deaths would increase to 602,950 in China and to 29,750 elsewhere. Because the negative radiative forcing from SO42- and OC is larger than the positive forcing from BC, the Chinese aerosols lead to global net direct radiative forcing of -74 mW m-2 in 2000 and between -15 and -97 mW m-2 in 2030 based on the emissions scenario. Our analysis suggests that environmental policies that simultaneously improve public health and mitigate climate change would be highly beneficial (eg. reductions in BC emissions).

  2. How Well Will MODIS Measure Top of Atmosphere Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Remer, Lorraine A.; Kaufman, Yoram J.; Levin, Zev; Ghan, Stephen; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The new generation of satellite sensors such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) will be able to detect and characterize global aerosols with an unprecedented accuracy. The question remains whether this accuracy will be sufficient to narrow the uncertainties in our estimates of aerosol radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere. Satellite remote sensing detects aerosol optical thickness with the least amount of relative error when aerosol loading is high. Satellites are less effective when aerosol loading is low. We use the monthly mean results of two global aerosol transport models to simulate the spatial distribution of smoke aerosol in the Southern Hemisphere during the tropical biomass burning season. This spatial distribution allows us to determine that 87-94% of the smoke aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere occurs in grid squares with sufficient signal to noise ratio to be detectable from space. The uncertainty of quantifying the smoke aerosol forcing in the Southern Hemisphere depends on the uncertainty introduced by errors in estimating the background aerosol, errors resulting from uncertainties in surface properties and errors resulting from uncertainties in assumptions of aerosol properties. These three errors combine to give overall uncertainties of 1.5 to 2.2 Wm-2 (21-56%) in determining the Southern Hemisphere smoke aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere. The range of values depend on which estimate of MODIS retrieval uncertainty is used, either the theoretical calculation (upper bound) or the empirical estimate (lower bound). Strategies that use the satellite data to derive flux directly or use the data in conjunction with ground-based remote sensing and aerosol transport models can reduce these uncertainties.

  3. Easy Aerosol - Robust and non-robust circulation responses to aerosol radiative forcing in comprehensive atmosphere models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voigt, Aiko; Bony, Sandrine; Stevens, Bjorn; Boucher, Olivier; Medeiros, Brian; Pincus, Robert; Wang, Zhili; Zhang, Kai; Lewinschal, Anna; Bellouin, Nicolas; Yang, Young-Min

    2015-04-01

    A number of recent studies illustrated the potential of aerosols to change the large-scale atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns. It remains unclear, however, to what extent the proposed aerosol-induced changes reflect robust model behavior or are affected by uncertainties in the models' treatment of parametrized physical processes, such as those related to clouds. "Easy Aerosol", a model-intercomparison project organized within the Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity of the World Climate Research Programme, addresses this question by subjecting a suite of comprehensive atmosphere general circulation models with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) to the same set of idealized "easy" aerosol perturbations. This contribution discusses the aerosol perturbations as well as their impact on the model's precipitation and surface winds. The aerosol perturbations are designed based on a global aerosol climatology and mimic the gravest mode of the anthropogenic aerosol. Specifically, the meridional and zonal distributions of total aerosol optical depth are approximated by a superposition of Gaussian plumes; the vertical distribution is taken as constant within the lowest 1250m of the atmosphere followed by an exponential decay with height above. The aerosol both scatters and absorbs shortwave radiation, but in order to focus on direct radiative effects aerosol-cloud interactions are omitted. Each model contributes seven simulations. A clean control case with no aerosol-radiative effects at all is compared to six perturbed simulations with differing aerosol loading, zonal aerosol distributions, and SSTs. To estimate the role of natural variability, one of the models, MPI-ESM, contributes a 5-member ensemble for each simulation. If the observed SSTs from years 1979-2005 are prescribed, the aerosol leads to a local depression of precipitation at the Northern Hemisphere center of the aerosol and a northward shift of the

  4. Intercomparison of aerosol microphysics modules in the framework of the ECHAM5 climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hommel, R.; Kokkola, H.; Kazil, J.; Niemeier, U.; Partanen, A. I.; Feichter, J.; Timmreck, C.

    2009-04-01

    Aerosols in the atmosphere are an elementary constituent of the atmospheric composition and affect the global climate through a variety of physical and chemical interactions in the troposphere and stratosphere. Large volcanic eruptions alter the Earth's radiative balance and interfere with the catalytic cycles of ozone depletion mainly by the formation of micrometer size aerosol particles above the tropopause. Recent experimental and numerical investigations of process oriented aerosol-climate interactions revealed that appropriate climate effects can only be modeled when informations about the aerosol size and number spectra are provided. Nevertheless in the majority of climate models volcanic perturbations of the stratosphere are either prescribed based on the aerosol parameters of interested (surface area, optical depth) or the aerosol microphysics is considered explicitly but with a heavily reduced number of degrees of freedom. This yields e.g. to underestimations of surface temperature effects in the fade of an eruption. To overcome that weakness, we tested three aerosol modules currently available in the framework of the climate model ECHAM5 in environmental conditions assumed to be representative in the stratosphere after the injection of SO2 from modest to large volcanic eruptions. The study focuses on the evolution of liquid H2SO4/H2O aerosol. The modal modal M7, currently the default aerosol scheme in ECHAM5, is compared with two sectional aerosol schemes: the moving centre sectional aerosol scheme SALSA, and the fixed sectional scheme SAM2. Since direct measurements of particle size informations during the initial stage of a volcanic injection in the stratosphere are not available, the detailed sectional aerosol model MAIA is used as a reference in this study. It is shown that all modules are able to represent a "typical" stratospheric background aerosol distribution when the particles are formed via the oxidation pathway of SO2. However, the modules

  5. Role of black carbon in aerosol properties and radiative forcing over western India during premonsoon period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Das, S. K.; Jayaraman, A.

    2011-11-01

    The present study addresses the role of black carbon (BC) in aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) over western India, where the Thar Desert produces large amount of dust aerosols during premonsoon season (Mar-May) and its mixing with BC makes the investigation a real challenge. Measurements of aerosol physical and optical parameters were carried out at three stations, Ahmedabad (urban area), Udaipur (semi-arid region) and Mt. Abu (a hill-top representing background conditions), to investigate the regional variation of ARF during April 2007. Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) measurements show presence of dust layer in the altitude region from 1 to 5 km over western India throughout the month leading to uniform distribution of dust. Ahmedabad has slightly higher AOD500(0.31) due to production of anthropogenic aerosols with BC concentration of 1.8 μg.m- 3 at surface, followed by Udaipur (AOD500 = 0.30 and BC = 0.9 μg.m- 3) and Mt. Abu (0.28 and 0.7 μg.m- 3, respectively). The longwave ARF is found to be similar over all three stations whereas the shortwave ARF depends on type of location. The shortwave ARF at the top of atmosphere (TOA), surface, and within the atmosphere are found to be 1.7, -46 and 47.7 W m- 2, respectively, at Ahmedabad, -1.5, -35 and 33.5 W m- 2 at Udaipur and - 1.5, -31 and 29.5 W m- 2 at Mt. Abu. On the other hand, the heating rates in the lower atmosphere (up to 5 km) are 1.3, 1.0 and 0.4 K/day over Ahmedabad, Udaipur and Mt. Abu, respectively. Sensitivity analysis shows that a 40% enhancement of BC could increase the heating rate by up to 50% over western India. Higher aerosol-induced heating in the atmosphere during premonsoon may have a large impact on the regional climate dynamics and hydrological processes.

  6. Asian Monsoon Changes and the Role of Aerosol and Greenhouse Gas Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ting, M.; Li, X.

    2015-12-01

    Changes in Asian summer (June to August) monsoon in response to aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing are examined using observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model, multi-realization ensemble. Results show that during the historical period, CMIP5 models show a predominantly drying trend in Asian monsoon, while in the 21st Century under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (rcp8.5) scenario, monsoon rainfall enhances across the entire Asian domain. The thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms causing the changes are evaluated using the moisture budget analysis. The drying trend in the CMIP5 historical simulations and the wetting trend in the rcp8.5 projections can be explained by the relative importance of dynamical and thermodynamical contributions to the total moisture convergence. While thermodynamic mechanism dominates in the future, the historical rainfall changes are dominated by the changes in circulation. The relative contributions of aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the historical monsoon change are further examined using CMIP5 single-forcing simulations. Rainfall reduces under aerosol forcing and increases under greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Aerosol forcing dominates over the greenhouse effect during the historical period, leading to the general drying trend in the all-forcing simulations. While the thermodynamic change of mean moisture convergence in the all-forcing case is dominated by the GHG forcing, the dynamic change in mean moisture convergence in the all-forcing case is dominated by the aerosol forcing. Further analysis using atmospheric GCM with prescribed aerosol and GHG radiative forcing versus those with the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) warming suggests that the weak circulation changes due to GHG forcing is a result of the cancellation between CO2 radiative forcing and the SST warming, while aerosol radiative effect tends to enhance the circulation response due to SST forcing.

  7. Environment, Health and Climate: Impact of African aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liousse, C.; Doumbia, T.; Assamoi, E.; Galy-Lacaux, C.; Baeza, A.; Penner, J. E.; Val, S.; Cachier, H.; Xu, L.; Criqui, P.

    2012-12-01

    Fossil fuel and biofuel emissions of particles in Africa are expected to significantly increase in the near future, particularly due to rapid growth of African cities. In addition to biomass burning emissions prevailing in these areas, air quality degradation is then expected with important consequences on population health and climatic/radiative impact. In our group, we are constructing a new integrated methodology to study the relations between emissions, air quality and their impacts. This approach includes: (1) African combustion emission characterizations; (2) joint experimental determination of aerosol chemistry from ultrafine to coarse fractions and health issues (toxicology and epidemiology). (3) integrated environmental, health and radiative modeling. In this work, we show some results illustrating our first estimates of African anthropogenic emission impacts: - a new African anthropogenic emission inventory adapted to regional specificities on traffic, biofuel and industrial emissions has been constructed for the years 2005 and 2030. Biomass burning inventories were also improved in the frame of AMMA (African Monsoon) program. - carbonaceous aerosol radiative impact in Africa has been modeled with TM5 model and Penner et al. (2011) radiative code for these inventories for 2005 and 2030 and for two scenarios of emissions : a reference scenario, with no further emission controls beyond those achieved in 2003 and a ccc* scenario including planned policies in Kyoto protocol and regulations as applied to African emission specificities. In this study we will show that enhanced heating is expected with the ccc* scenarios emissions in which the OC fraction is relatively lower than in the reference scenario. - results of short term POLCA intensive campaigns in Bamako and Dakar in terms of aerosol chemical characterization linked to specific emissions sources and their inflammatory impacts on the respiratory tract through in vitro studies. In this study, organic

  8. The effect of aerosols and sea surface temperature on China's climate over the late twentieth century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Folini, Doris; Wild, Martin

    2015-04-01

    Focusing on China in the second half of the twentieth century, we examine the relative role of aerosols and prescribed, observation based sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the evolution of surface solar radiation (SSR), surface air temperature (SAT), and precipitation in ensembles of transient (1870 - 2005) sensitivity experiments with the global climate model ECHAM5-HAM. Observations and simulations with transient SSTs and aerosol emissions agree reasonably well in eastern China in terms of SSR dimming (-6 +/- 2 W/m2/decade, 1960 - 2000), statistically non-significant JJA SAT trend (1950 - 2000), and drying in JJA from 1950 to 1990 (-2.5% to -3.5% per decade, essentially via reduction of convective precipitation). Other major observed features are not reproduce by the model, e.g. precipitation increase in the 1990s in the Yangtze valley, the strong warming in winter in northern parts of China and Mongolia, or SSR dimming in western China. For the model results, SO2 emissions are more relevant than emissions of black and organic carbon. Aerosol effects are less pronounced at higher model resolution. Transient SSTs are found to be crucial for decadal scale SAT variability over land, especially the strong warming in the 1990s, and, via SST forced reduction of cloud cover, for the ceasing of SSR dimming around the year 2000. Unforced cloud variability leads to relevant scatter (up to +/- 2 W/m2/decade) of modeled SSR trends at individual observation sites.

  9. Quantifying greenhouse warming, aerosol cooling and the transient climate sensitivity - A novel approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Storelvmo, T.; Leirvik, T.; Phillips, P.; Turrini, A.

    2013-12-01

    We present an interdisciplinary study combining climate observations and modeling with econometric methodology to identify the relative contributions to recent climate change from greenhouse warming and aerosol cooling. The cooling effect of aerosols has likely masked some of the warming due to increasing GHG concentrations to date. Several publications have recently pointed out the intimate relationship between the aerosol cooling effect and climate sensitivity. Generally, a GCM that has a large aerosol cooling effect will typically have a high climate sensitivity, and vice versa. Given this connection between the aerosol effect and the GCMs climate sensitivity, it is problematic that the aerosol effect is still very poorly constrained, even after decades of dedicated research on aerosol effects on climate. It is time to seek out other complimentary and parallel approaches to the traditional ones, and this is at the heart of the presented study. We apply econometric methods to determine the parameters of an energy balance model, using observed time series of surface air temperature, radiation and CO2 concentrations. This framework allows us to decompose of the observed temperature trend into a GHG component and an aerosol component for the time period 1960 to 2000. We find that aerosols have likely masked about 50% of the warming due to increasing GHG concentrations during this time period. This is compared to a much weaker aerosol masking simulated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM). The framework also allows for an estimate of the transient climate sensitivity, with the caveat that the estimate is only valid for the parts of the globe which have sufficient data coverage to be included in our analysis. This is the case for most land areas, for which our framework yields a transient climate sensitivity of 6.1K, with a 95% confidence interval of [3.6, 8.7]K.

  10. Aerosol Properties and Processes: A Path from Field and Laboratory Measurements to Global Climate Models

    SciTech Connect

    Ghan, Steven J.; Schwartz, Stephen E.

    2007-07-01

    Aerosols exert a substantial influence on climate and climate change through a variety of complex mechanisms. Consequently there is a need to represent aerosol effects in global climate models, and models have begun to include representations of these effects. However, the treatment of aerosols in current global climate models is presently highly simplified, omitting many important processes and feedbacks. Consequently there is need for substantial improvement. Here we describe the U. S. Department of Energy strategy for improving the treatment of aerosol properties and processes in global climate models. The strategy begins with a foundation of field and laboratory measurements that provide the basis for modules of selected aerosol properties and processes. These modules are then integrated in regional aerosol models, which are evaluated by comparing with field measurements. Issues of scale are then addressed so that the modules can be applied to global aerosol models, which are evaluated by comparing with global satellite measurements. Finally, the validated set of modules are applied to global climate models for multi-century simulations. This strategy can be applied to successive generations of global climate models.

  11. Investigation of air pollution and regional climate change due to anthropogenic aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakata, Makiko; Sano, Itaru; Mukai, Sonoyo

    2016-10-01

    Increased emissions of anthropogenic aerosols associated with economic growth can lead to increased concentrations of hazardous air pollutants. In particular, large cities in East Asia have experienced numerous heavy haze episodes. Atmospheric aerosol distributions in East Asia are complex, being influenced by both natural phenomena and human activity, with urban areas in particular being dominated by fine anthropogenic aerosols released from diesel-powered vehicles and industrial activity. In Japan, air pollution levels have been reduced; nevertheless, in recent years, there is increasing concern regarding air pollution caused by fine particulate matter. The origins of air pollution were examined, focusing on the comparison between aerosol properties observed from satellites and that on the ground. Because of their short life spans, concentrations of anthropogenic aerosols are highest over the source regions, and as a result, the climatic impacts of anthropogenic aerosols are also found to be most pronounced in these regions. In this study, aerosol impacts on climate are assessed by numerical model simulations. The direct effects of aerosols include reduced solar radiation, and hence a decrease in surface temperatures. In addition to these changes in the radiation budget, aerosols have a significant potential to change cloud and precipitation fields. These climatic responses to aerosols can manifest far from their source regions with high industrial activities.

  12. An overview of ACE-Asia: Strategies for quantifying the relationships between Asian aerosols and their climatic impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huebert, Barry J.; Bates, Timothy; Russell, Philip B.; Shi, Guangyu; Kim, Young Joon; Kawamura, Kimitaka; Carmichael, Greg; Nakajima, Teruyuki

    2003-12-01

    The International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Program (IGAC) has conducted a series of Aerosol Characterization Experiments (ACE) that integrate in situ measurements, satellite observations, and models to reduce the uncertainty in calculations of the climate forcing due to aerosol particles. ACE-Asia, the fourth in this series of experiments, consisted of two focused components: (1) An intensive field study that sought to quantify the spatial and vertical distribution of aerosol concentrations and properties, the processes controlling their formation, evolution, and fate, and the column-integrated radiative effect of the aerosol (late March through May 2001). (2) A longer-term network of ground stations that used in situ and column-integrated measurements to quantify the chemical, physical, and optical properties of aerosols in the ACE-Asia study area and to assess their spatial and temporal (seasonal and interannual) variability (2000-2003). The approach of the ACE-Asia science team was to make simultaneous measurements of aerosol chemical, physical, and optical properties and their radiative impacts in a variety of air masses, often coordinated with satellite overpasses. Three aircraft, two research ships, a network of lidars, and many surface sites gathered data on Asian aerosols. Chemical transport models (CTMs) were integrated into the program from the start, being used in a forecast mode during the intensive observation period to identify promising areas for airborne and ship observations and then later as tools for integrating observations. The testing and improvement of a wide range of aerosol models (including microphysical, radiative transfer, CTM, and global climate models) was one important way in which we assessed our understanding of the properties and controlling processes of Asian aerosols. We describe here the scientific goals and objectives of the ACE-Asia experiment, its observational strategies, the types of observations made by the mobile

  13. Investigation of mineral aerosols radiative effects over High Mountain Asia in 1990-2009 using a regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ji, Zhenming; Kang, Shichang; Zhang, Qianggong; Cong, Zhiyuan; Chen, Pengfei; Sillanpää, Mika

    2016-09-01

    Mineral aerosols scatter and absorb incident solar radiation in the atmosphere, and play an important role in the regional climate of High Mountain Asia (the domain includes the Himalayas, Tibetan Plateau, Pamir, Hindu-kush, Karakorum and Tienshan Mountains). Dust deposition on snow/ice can also change the surface albedo, resulting in perturbations in the surface radiation balance. However, most studies that have made quantitative assessments of the climatic effect of mineral aerosols over the High Mountain Asia region did not consider the impact of dust on snow/ice at the surface. In this study, a regional climate model coupled with an aerosol-snow/ice feedback module was used to investigate the emission, distribution, and deposition of dust and the climatic effects of aerosols over High Mountain Asia. Two sets of simulations driven by a reanalysis boundary condition were performed, i.e., with and without dust-climate feedback. Results indicated that the model captured the spatial and temporal features of the climatology and aerosol optical depth (AOD). High dust emission fluxes were simulated in the interior of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the Yarlung Tsangpo Valley in March-April-May (MAM), with a decreasing trend during 1990-2009. Dry deposition was controlled by the topography, and its spatial and seasonal features agreed well with the dust emission fluxes. The maximum wet deposition occurred in the western (southern and central) TP in MAM (JJA). A positive surface radiative forcing was induced by dust, including aerosol-snow/ice feedback, resulting in 2-m temperature increases of 0.1-0.5 °C over the western TP and Kunlun Mountains in MAM. Mineral dust also caused a decrease of 5-25 mm in the snow water equivalent (SWE) over the western TP, Himalayas, and Pamir Mountains in DJF and MAM. The long-term regional mean radiative forcing via dust deposition on snow showed an rising trend during 1990-2009, which suggested the contribution of aerosols surface

  14. The aerosol-monsoon climate system of Asia: A new paradigm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2016-02-01

    This commentary is based on a series of recent lectures on aerosol-monsoon interactions I gave at the Beijing Normal University in August 2015. A main theme of the lectures is on a new paradigm of "An Aerosol-Monsoon-Climate-System", which posits that aerosol, like rainfall, cloud, and wind, is an integral component of the monsoon climate system, influencing monsoon weather and climate on all timescales. Here, salient issues discussed in my lectures and my personal perspective regarding interactions between atmospheric dynamics and aerosols from both natural and anthropogenic sources are summarized. My hope is that under this new paradigm, we can break down traditional disciplinary barriers, advance a deeper understanding of weather and climate in monsoon regions, as well as entrain a new generation of geoscientists to strive for a sustainable future for one of the most complex and challenging human-natural climate sub-system of the earth.

  15. Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol-climate model intercomparison studies

    DOE PAGES

    Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.; ...

    2014-04-24

    Nudging is an assimilation technique widely used in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity of simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosolmore » concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on longwave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy for the investigation of aerosol indirect effects through ice clouds, since it provides well-constrained meteorology without strongly perturbing the model's mean climate.« less

  16. Climate engineering by mimicking natural dust climate control: the iron salt aerosol method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oeste, Franz Dietrich; de Richter, Renaud; Ming, Tingzhen; Caillol, Sylvain

    2017-01-01

    Power stations, ships and air traffic are among the most potent greenhouse gas emitters and are primarily responsible for global warming. Iron salt aerosols (ISAs), composed partly of iron and chloride, exert a cooling effect on climate in several ways. This article aims firstly to examine all direct and indirect natural climate cooling mechanisms driven by ISA tropospheric aerosol particles, showing their cooperation and interaction within the different environmental compartments. Secondly, it looks at a proposal to enhance the cooling effects of ISA in order to reach the optimistic target of the Paris climate agreement to limit the global temperature increase between 1.5 and 2 °C. Mineral dust played an important role during the glacial periods; by using mineral dust as a natural analogue tool and by mimicking the same method used in nature, the proposed ISA method might be able to reduce and stop climate warming. The first estimations made in this article show that by doubling the current natural iron emissions by ISA into the troposphere, i.e., by about 0.3 Tg Fe yr-1, artificial ISA would enable the prevention or even reversal of global warming. The ISA method proposed integrates technical and economically feasible tools.

  17. Introducing GMXe: A new global aerosol dynamics and thermodynamics model for climate and air quality studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pringle, K.; Metzger, S.; Tost, H.; Steil, B.; Lelieveld, J.

    2009-04-01

    The treatment of aerosols in global atmospheric models has advanced significantly in the past decade, but the global aerosol distribution is very complex and simplifications must be made in order to treat aerosols in global models. One common simplification is in the treatment of the partitioning of semi-volatile species (e.g. NH3, HNO3 and H2O) between the gas and the aerosol phases, which is often neglected in models or treated in a simplified manner. The treatment of partitioning is, however, important as it controls the aerosol composition (including the aerosol water concentration) as well as affecting the concentration of both aerosol and gas phase pollutants. This paper introduces the newly developed GMXe aerosol model, which has been developed to investigate gas / aerosol partitioning on a global scale. The model (implemented within the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model) combines an extended version of an established aerosol microphysics model (the M7, Stier et al ACP 2005) with a thermodynamic equilibrium model (EQSAM3, Metzger et al ACP 2008). The resulting model is capable of calculating gas / aerosol partitioning with relatively little additional computational overhead. In this paper we give an overview of the modelling approach used and show various model inter-comparisons, including a detailed comparison of the results of the GMXe and M7 models. We show the effect of including additional aerosol components - such as nitrate aerosol - on the global aerosol distribution and on the behaviour of other aerosol species (e.g. sulphate). The water uptake behaviour of the aerosol is examined, a factor that is important for the aerosol lifetime and also for the aerosol radiative forcing. We examine our results in the context of future emissions scenarios and air quality standards.

  18. Global Impacts of Gas-Phase Chemistry-Aerosol Interactions on Direct Radiative Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols and Ozone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liao, Hong; Seinfeld, John H.

    2005-01-01

    We present here a first global modeling study on the influence of gas-phase chemistry/aerosol interactions on estimates of anthropogenic forcing by tropospheric O3 and aerosols. Concentrations of gas-phase species and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust aerosols in the preindustrial, present-day, and year 2100 (IPCC SRES A2) atmospheres are simulated online in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model II' (GISS GCM II'). With fully coupled chemistry and aerosols, the preindustrial, presentday, and year 2100 global burdens of tropospheric ozone are predicted to be 190, 319, and 519 Tg, respectively. The burdens of sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, and organic carbon are predicted respectively to be 0.32. 0.18, 0.01, 0.33 Tg in preindustrial time, 1.40, 0.48, 0.23, 1.60 Tg in presentday, and 1.37, 1.97, 0.54, 3.31 Tg in year 2100. Anthropogenic O3 is predicted to have a globally and annually averaged present-day forcing of +0.22 W m(sup -2) and year 2100 forcing of +0.57 W m(sup -2) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Net anthropogenic TOA forcing by internally mixed sulfate, nitrate, organic carbon, and black carbon aerosols is estimated to be virtually zero in the present-day and +0.34 W m(sup -2) in year 2100, whereas it is predicted to be -0.39 W m(sup -2) in present-day and -0.61 W m(sup -2) in year 2100 if the aerosols are externally mixed. Heterogeneous reactions are shown to be important in affecting anthropogenic forcing. When reactions of N2O5, NO3, NO2, and HO2 on aerosols are accounted for, TOA anthropogenic O3 forcing is less by 20-45% in present-day and by 20-32% in year 2100 at mid to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, as compared with values predicted in the absence of heterogeneous gas aerosol reactions. Mineral dust uptake of HNO3 and O3 is shown to have practically no influence on anthropogenic O3 forcing. Heterogeneous reactions of N2Os

  19. Aerosol properties and radiative forcing for three air masses transported in Summer 2011 to Sopot, Poland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rozwadowska, Anna; Stachlewska, Iwona S.; Makuch, P.; Markowicz, K. M.; Petelski, T.; Strzałkowska, A.; Zieliński, T.

    2013-05-01

    Properties of atmospheric aerosols and solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface were measured during Summer 2011 in Sopot, Poland. Three cloudless days, characterized by different directions of incoming air-flows, which are typical transport pathways to Sopot, were used to estimate a radiative forcing due to aerosols present in each air mass.

  20. A 10-year global gridded Aerosol Optical Thickness Reanalysis for climate and applied applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lynch, P.; Reid, J. S.; Zhang, J.; Westphal, D. L.; Campbell, J. R.; Curtis, C. A.; Hegg, D.; Hyer, E. J.; Sessions, W.; Shi, Y.; Turk, J.

    2013-12-01

    While standalone satellite and model aerosol products see wide utilization, there is a significant need of a best-available fused product on a regular grid for numerous climate and applied applications. Remote sensing and modeling technologies have now advanced to a point where aerosol data assimilation is an operational reality at numerous centers. It is inevitable that, like meteorological reanalyses, aerosol reanalyses will see heavy use in the near future. A first long term, 2003-2012 global 1x1 degree and 6-hourly aerosol optical thickness (AOT) reanalysis product has been generated. The goal of this effort is not only for climate applications, but to generate a dataset that can be used by the US Navy to understand operationally hindering aerosol events, aerosol impacts on numerical weather prediction, and application of electro-optical technologies. The reanalysis utilizes Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) at its core and assimilates quality controlled collection 5 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) AOD with minor corrections from Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRaditometer (MISR). A subset of this product includes Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) lidar assimilation since its launch in mid-2006. Surface aerosol sources, including dust and smoke, in the aerosol model have been regionally tuned so that fine and coarse mode AOTs best match those resolve by ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). The AOT difference between the model and satellite AOT is then used to adjust other aerosol processes, eg., sources, dry deposition, etc. Aerosol wet deposition is constrained with satellite-retrieved precipitation. The final AOT reanalysis is shown to exhibit good agreement with AERONET. Here we review the development of the reanalysis and consider issues particular to aerosol reanalyses that make them distinct from standard meteorological reanalyses. Considerations are also made for extending such work

  1. Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing as Indicated by the Reversion of Warming-elevation Relationship

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Z.; Chen, A.; Ciais, P.; Li, Y.; Li, L. Z. X.; Vautard, R.; Zhou, L.; Yang, H.; Huang, M.; Piao, S.

    2015-12-01

    Global climate models prescribed with increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) produce warming trends that increase with altitude. However, observations do not show a uniform acceleration of warming with elevation. Here, we explore warming-elevation relationship, apply records from 2660 meteorological stations, and determine that the vertical gradient of warming rate varies with location. Warming is faster at higher altitude in Asia and western North America, but the opposite is observed over central Europe and eastern North America which have received more short-wave radiation (brightening) associated with a decrease of aerosols and clouds since the 1980s. We found that altitudinal differences in air pollution brightening, with observations showing more short-wave radiation received at low altitudes than at mountain stations, modulate the otherwise uniform effect of the long-wave forcing of GHGs on the warming-elevation relationship. Characterizing the warming-elevation relationships over different mountainous regions thus provides a valuable tool for understanding the drivers of regional climate change and will contribute to the formulation of strategies for climate change mitigation (e.g., biodiversity conservation) at high elevations.

  2. Assessment of simulated aerosol effective radiative forcings in the terrestrial spectrum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heyn, Irene; Block, Karoline; Mülmenstädt, Johannes; Gryspeerdt, Edward; Kühne, Philipp; Salzmann, Marc; Quaas, Johannes

    2017-01-01

    In its fifth assessment report (AR5), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provides a best estimate of the effective radiative forcing (ERF) due to anthropogenic aerosol at -0.9 W m-2. This value is considerably weaker than the estimate of -1.2 W m-2 in AR4. A part of the difference can be explained by an offset of +0.2 W m-2 which AR5 added to all published estimates that only considered the solar spectrum, in order to account for adjustments in the terrestrial spectrum. We find that, in the CMIP5 multimodel median, the ERF in the terrestrial spectrum is small, unless microphysical effects on ice- and mixed-phase clouds are parameterized. In the latter case it is large but accompanied by a very strong ERF in the solar spectrum. The total adjustments can be separated into microphysical adjustments (aerosol "effects") and thermodynamic adjustments. Using a kernel technique, we quantify the latter and find that the rapid thermodynamic adjustments of water vapor and temperature profiles are small. Observation-based constraints on these model results are urgently needed.

  3. The implications for climate sensitivity of AR5 forcing and heat uptake estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewis, Nicholas; Curry, Judith A.

    2015-08-01

    Energy budget estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) are derived using the comprehensive 1750-2011 time series and the uncertainty ranges for forcing components provided in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Working Group I Report, along with its estimates of heat accumulation in the climate system. The resulting estimates are less dependent on global climate models and allow more realistically for forcing uncertainties than similar estimates based on forcings diagnosed from simulations by such models. Base and final periods are selected that have well matched volcanic activity and influence from internal variability. Using 1859-1882 for the base period and 1995-2011 for the final period, thus avoiding major volcanic activity, median estimates are derived for ECS of 1.64 K and for TCR of 1.33 K. ECS 17-83 and 5-95 % uncertainty ranges are 1.25-2.45 and 1.05-4.05 K; the corresponding TCR ranges are 1.05-1.80 and 0.90-2.50 K. Results using alternative well-matched base and final periods provide similar best estimates but give wider uncertainty ranges, principally reflecting smaller changes in average forcing. Uncertainty in aerosol forcing is the dominant contribution to the ECS and TCR uncertainty ranges.

  4. Spatial variations in immediate greenhouse gases and aerosol emissions and resulting radiative forcing from wildfires in interior Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Huang, Shengli; Liu, Heping; Dahal, Devendra; Jin, Suming; Li, Shuang; Liu, Shu-Guang

    2016-01-01

    Boreal fires can cool the climate; however, this conclusion came from individual fires and may not represent the whole story. We hypothesize that the climatic impact of boreal fires depends on local landscape heterogeneity such as burn severity, prefire vegetation type, and soil properties. To test this hypothesis, spatially explicit emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols and their resulting radiative forcing are required as an important and necessary component towards a full assessment. In this study, we integrated remote sensing (Landsat and MODIS) and models (carbon consumption model, emission factors model, and radiative forcing model) to calculate the carbon consumption, GHGs and aerosol emissions, and their radiative forcing of 2001–2010 fires at 30 m resolution in the Yukon River Basin of Alaska. Total carbon consumption showed significant spatial variation, with a mean of 2,615 g C m−2 and a standard deviation of 2,589 g C m−2. The carbon consumption led to different amounts of GHGs and aerosol emissions, ranging from 593.26 Tg (CO2) to 0.16 Tg (N2O). When converted to equivalent CO2 based on global warming potential metric, the maximum 20 years equivalent CO2 was black carbon (713.77 Tg), and the lowest 20 years equivalent CO2 was organic carbon (−583.13 Tg). The resulting radiative forcing also showed significant spatial variation: CO2, CH4, and N2O can cause a 20-year mean radiative forcing of 7.41 W m−2 with a standard deviation of 2.87 W m−2. This emission forcing heterogeneity indicates that different boreal fires have different climatic impacts. When considering the spatial variation of other forcings, such as surface shortwave forcing, we may conclude that some boreal fires, especially boreal deciduous fires, can warm the climate.

  5. Impacts of Aerosol Direct Effects on the South Asian Climate: Assessment of Radiative Feedback Processes Using Model Simulations and Satellite/Surface Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Sheng-Hsiang; Gautam, Ritesh; Lau, William K. M.; Tsay, Si-Chee; Sun, Wen-Yih; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Chern, Jiun-Dar; Hsu, Christina; Lin, Neng-Huei

    2011-01-01

    Current assessment of aerosol radiative effect is hindered by our incomplete knowledge of aerosol optical properties, especially absorption, and our current inability to quantify physical and microphysical processes. In this research, we investigate direct aerosol radiative effect over heavy aerosol loading areas (e.g., Indo-Gangetic Plains, South/East Asia) and its feedbacks on the South Asian climate during the pre-monsoon season (March-June) using the Purdue Regional Climate Model (PRCM) with prescribed aerosol data derived by the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5). Our modeling domain covers South and East Asia (60-140E and 0-50N) with spatial resolutions of 45 km in horizontal and 28 layers in vertical. The model is integrated from 15 February to 30 June 2008 continuously without nudging (i.e., only forced by initial/boundary conditions). Two numerical experiments are conducted with and without the aerosol-radiation effects. Both simulations are successful in reproducing the synoptic patterns on seasonal-to-interannual time scales and capturing a pre-monsoon feature of the northward rainfall propagation over Indian region in early June which shown in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observation. Preliminary result suggests aerosol-radiation interactions mainly alter surface-atmosphere energetics and further result in an adjustment of the vertical temperature distribution in lower atmosphere (below 700 hPa). The modifications of temperature and associated rainfall and circulation feedbacks on the regional climate will be discussed in the presentation.

  6. A new approach to modeling aerosol effects on East Asian climate: Parametric uncertainties associated with emissions, cloud microphysics, and their interactions: AEROSOL EFFECTS ON EAST ASIAN CLIMATE

    SciTech Connect

    Yan, Huiping; Qian, Yun; Zhao, Chun; Wang, Hailong; Wang, Minghuai; Yang, Ben; Liu, Xiaohong; Fu, Qiang

    2015-09-09

    In this study, we adopt a parametric sensitivity analysis framework that integrates the quasi-Monte Carlo parameter sampling approach and a surrogate model to examine aerosol effects on the East Asian Monsoon climate simulated in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5). A total number of 256 CAM5 simulations are conducted to quantify the model responses to the uncertain parameters associated with cloud microphysics parameterizations and aerosol (e.g., sulfate, black carbon (BC), and dust) emission factors and their interactions. Results show that the interaction terms among parameters are important for quantifying the sensitivity of fields of interest, especially precipitation, to the parameters. The relative importance of cloud-microphysics parameters and emission factors (strength) depends on evaluation metrics or the model fields we focused on, and the presence of uncertainty in cloud microphysics imposes an additional challenge in quantifying the impact of aerosols on cloud and climate. Due to their different optical and microphysical properties and spatial distributions, sulfate, BC, and dust aerosols have very different impacts on East Asian Monsoon through aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions. The climatic effects of aerosol do not always have a monotonic response to the change of emission factors. The spatial patterns of both sign and magnitude of aerosol-induced changes in radiative fluxes, cloud, and precipitation could be different, depending on the aerosol types, when parameters are sampled in different ranges of values. We also identify the different cloud microphysical parameters that show the most significant impact on climatic effect induced by sulfate, BC and dust, respectively, in East Asia.

  7. Satellite Estimates of the Direct Radiative Forcing of Biomass Burning Aerosols Over South America and Africa

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christopher, Sundar A.; Wang, Min; Kliche, Donna V.; Berendes, Todd; Welch, Ronald M.; Yang, S.K.

    1997-01-01

    Atmospheric aerosol particles, both natural and anthropogenic are important to the earth's radiative balance. Therefore it is important to provide adequate validation information on the spatial, temporal and radiative properties of aerosols. This will enable us to predict realistic global estimates of aerosol radiative effects more confidently. The current study utilizes 66 AVHRR LAC (Local Area Coverage) and coincident Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) images to characterize the fires, smoke and radiative forcings of biomass burning aerosols over four major ecosystems of South America.

  8. Assessing Impact of Aerosol Intercontinental Transport on Regional Air Quality and Climate: What Satellites Can Help

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yu, Hongbin

    2011-01-01

    Mounting evidence for intercontinental transport of aerosols suggests that aerosols from a region could significantly affect climate and air quality in downwind regions and continents. Current assessment of these impacts for the most part has been based on global model simulations that show large variability. The aerosol intercontinental transport and its influence on air quality and climate involve many processes at local, regional, and intercontinental scales. There is a pressing need to establish modeling systems that bridge the wide range of scales. The modeling systems need to be evaluated and constrained by observations, including satellite measurements. Columnar loadings of dust and combustion aerosols can be derived from the MODIS and MISR measurements of total aerosol optical depth and particle size and shape information. Characteristic transport heights of dust and combustion aerosols can be determined from the CALIPSO lidar and AIRS measurements. CALIPSO liar and OMI UV technique also have a unique capability of detecting aerosols above clouds, which could offer some insights into aerosol lofting processes and the importance of above-cloud transport pathway. In this presentation, I will discuss our efforts of integrating these satellite measurements and models to assess the significance of intercontinental transport of dust and combustion aerosols on regional air quality and climate.

  9. Regional climate effects of aerosols on precipitation and snowpack in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, L.; Su, H.; Jiang, J. H.; Zhao, C.; Qian, Y.; Painter, T. H.

    2015-12-01

    Water sources in California are derived predominantly from precipitation (mostly during the winter time) and storage in the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada. With California facing one of the most severe droughts on record, it is important to understand the factors influencing precipitation and snowpack for water management and hydropower operation. Recent observational and numerical modeling studies have shown that aerosol pollutants can substantially change precipitation and snowpack in the Sierra Nevada. However, previous studies focused only on one of the aerosol effects or just focus on a single event. A complete view on regional climate effects of aerosol on precipitation and snowpack in California is not delivered yet. In this study, we use a fully coupled aerosol-meteorology-snowpack model (WRF-Chem-SNICAR) to investigate aerosol impacts on regional climate in California, with a focus on precipitation and snowpack. We will evaluate the performance of the WRF-Chem-SNICAR model on simulating regional climate in California. Sensitivity experiments will be conducted to disentangle the relative roles of each aerosol effect, such as aerosol radiation interaction vs. aerosol cloud interaction and aerosol snowpack interaction, local emission vs. long-range transport etc.

  10. Premonsoon Aerosol Characterization and Radiative Effects Over the Indo-Gangetic Plains: Implications for Regional Climate Warming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gautam, Ritesh; Hsu, N. Christina; Lau, K.-M.

    2010-01-01

    The Himalayas have a profound effect on the South Asian climate and the regional hydrological cycle, as it forms a barrier for the strong monsoon winds and serves as an elevated heat source, thus controlling the onset and distribution of precipitation during the Indian summer monsoon. Recent studies have suggested that radiative heating by absorbing aerosols, such as dust and black carbon over the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) and slopes of the Himalayas, may significantly accelerate the seasonal warming of the Hindu Kush-Himalayas-Tibetan Plateau (HKHT) and influence the subsequent evolution of the summer monsoon. This paper presents a detailed characterization of aerosols over the IGP and their radiative effects during the premonsoon season (April-May-June) when dust transport constitutes the bulk of the regional aerosol loading, using ground radiometric and spaceborne observations. During the dust-laden period, there is a strong response of surface shortwave flux to aerosol absorption indicated by the diurnally averaged forcing efficiency of -70 W/sq m per unit optical depth. The simulated aerosol single-scattering albedo, constrained by surface flux and aerosol measurements, is estimated to be 0.89+/- 0.01 (at approx.550 nm) with diurnal mean surface and top-of-atmosphere forcing values ranging from -11 to -79.8 W/sq m and +1.4 to +12 W/sq m, respectively, for the premonsoon period. The model-simulated solar heating rate profile peaks in the lower troposphere with enhanced heating penetrating into the middle troposphere (5-6 km), caused by vertically extended aerosols over the IGP with peak altitude of approx.5 km as indicated by spaceborne Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization observations. On a long-term climate scale, our analysis, on the basis of microwave satellite measurements of tropospheric temperatures from 1979 to 2007, indicates accelerated annual mean warming rates found over the Himalayan-Hindu Kush region (0.21 C/decade+/-0.08 C

  11. The Impact of Changing Climate on Ammonia Emissions from Agriculture and the Associated Climate Forcings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, D. S.; Riddick, S. N.; Hess, P. G. M.

    2015-12-01

    Agriculture is the largest anthropogenic source of ammonia (NH3) on a global scale with major contributions from the application of synthetic fertilizer and manure from livestock. While strict controls are placed on the emissions of many industrial pollutants, NH3 concentrations are expected to increase this century. In addition to future expansion of agricultural activities that could lead to greater NH3 emissions, NH3 emissions are affected by changes in temperature and precipitation. Here we use a newly developed agricultural N pathways model running in a global terrestrial model (Community Land Model v4.0) to estimate future NH3 emissions from manure and synthetic fertilizer application, and the impact of changing climate on these emissions and other N pathways (runoff, denitrification, etc.). We include future increases in the application of manure and synthetic fertilizer that are consistent with a middle-of-the-road projection of population growth and per capita caloric intake. Combined with atmospheric forcing that follows RCP8.5, NH3 emissions increase by about 50% and 90% between years 2010 and 2100 from synthetic fertilizer and manure, respectively. Roughly 25% of this increase can be attributed to the changing climate, mainly increased global temperatures over the 21st century. We show associated changes in ammonium nitrate and ammonium sulfate aerosol concentrations and radiative forcings, the results of a set of additional simulations using the Community Atmosphere Model v5.0 and an offline radiative transfer scheme. This work suggests that projections of global NH3 concentrations need to take changes in climate into account.

  12. Aerosol microphysics modules in the framework of the ECHAM5 climate model - intercomparison under stratospheric conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kokkola, H.; Hommel, R.; Kazil, J.; Niemeier, U.; Partanen, A.-I.; Feichter, J.; Timmreck, C.

    2009-07-01

    In this manuscript, we present an intercomparison of three different aerosol microphysics modules that are implemented in the climate model ECHAM5. The comparison was done between the modal aerosol microphysics module M7, which is currently the default aerosol microphysical core in ECHAM5, and two sectional aerosol microphysics modules SALSA, and SAM2. The detailed aerosol microphysical model MAIA was used as a reference to evaluate the results of the aerosol microphysics modules with respect to sulphate aerosol. The ability of the modules to describe the development of the aerosol size distribution was tested in a zero dimensional framework. We evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches under different types of stratospheric conditions. Also, we present an improved method for the time integration in M7 and study how the setup of the modal aerosol modules affects the evolution of the aerosol size distribution. Intercomparison simulations were carried out with varying SO2 concentrations from background conditions to extreme values arising from stratospheric injections by large volcanic eruptions. Under background conditions, all microphysics modules were in good agreement describing the shape of the aerosol size distribution, but the scatter between the model results increased with increasing SO2 concentrations. In particular in the volcanic case the setups of the aerosol modules have to be adapted in order to dependably capture the evolution of the aerosol size distribution, and to perform in global model simulations. In summary, this intercomparison serves as a review of the different aerosol microphysics modules which are currently available for the climate model ECHAM5.

  13. Aerosol microphysics modules in the framework of the ECHAM5 climate model - intercomparison under stratospheric conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kokkola, H.; Hommel, R.; Kazil, J.; Niemeier, U.; Partanen, A.-I.; Feichter, J.; Timmreck, C.

    2009-03-01

    In this manuscript, we present an intercomparison of three different aerosol microphysics modules that are implemented in the climate model ECHAM5. The comparison was done between the modal aerosol microphysics module M7, which is currently the default aerosol microphysical core in ECHAM5, and two sectional aerosol microphysics modules SALSA, and SAM2. A detailed aerosol microphycical model MAIA was used as a reference model to evaluate the results of the aerosol microphysics modules with respect to sulphate aerosol. The ability of the modules to describe the development of the aerosol size distribution was tested in a zero dimensional framework. We evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches under different types of stratospheric conditions. Also, we present an improved method for the time integration in M7 and study how the setup of the modal approach affects the evolution of the aerosol size distribution. Intercomparison simulations were carried out with varying SO2 concentrations from background conditions to extreme values arising from stratospheric injections of large volcanic eruptions. Under background conditions, all microphysics modules were in good agreement describing the shape of the size distribution but the scatter between the model results increased with increasing SO2 concentrations. In particular for the volcanic case the module setups have to be redefined to be applied in global model simulations capturing respective sulphate particle formation events. Summarized, this intercomparison serves as a review on the different aerosol microphysics modules which are currently available for the climate model ECHAM5.

  14. Pre-monsoon aerosol characteristics over the Indo-Gangetic Basin: implications to climatic impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Srivastava, A. K.; Tiwari, S.; Devara, P. C. S.; Bisht, D. S.; Srivastava, Manoj K.; Tripathi, S. N.; Goloub, P.; Holben, B. N.

    2011-05-01

    Sun/sky radiometer observations over the Indo-Gangetic Basin (IGB) region during pre-monsoon (from April-June 2009) have been processed to analyze various aerosol characteristics in the central and eastern IGB region, represented by Kanpur and Gandhi College, respectively, and their impacts on climate in terms of radiative forcing. Monthly mean aerosol optical depth (AOD at 500 nm) and corresponding Angstrom Exponent (AE at 440-870 nm, given within the brackets) was observed to be about 0.50 (0.49) and 0.51 (0.65) in April, 0.65 (0.74) and 0.67 (0.91) in May and 0.69 (0.45) and 0.77 (0.71) in June at Kanpur and Gandhi College, respectively. Results show a positive gradient in AOD and AE from central to eastern IGB region with the advancement of the pre-monsoon, which may be caused due to diverse geographical location of the stations having different meteorological conditions and emission sources. Relatively lower SSA was observed at the eastern IGB (0.89) than the central IGB (0.92) region during the period, which suggests relative dominance of absorbing aerosols at the eastern IGB as compared to central IGB region. The absorbing aerosol optical properties over the station suggest that the atmospheric absorption over central IGB region is mainly due to dominance of coarse-mode dust particles; however, absorption over eastern IGB region is mainly due to dominance of fine-particle pollution. The derived properties from sun/sky radiometer during pre-monsoon period are used in a radiative-transfer model to estimate aerosol radiative forcing at the top-of-the atmosphere (TOA) and at the surface over the IGB region. Relatively large TOA and surface cooling was observed at the eastern IGB as compared to the central IGB region. This translates into large heating of the atmosphere ranging from 0.45 to 0.55 K day-1 at Kanpur and from 0.45 to 0.59 K day-1 at Gandhi College.

  15. Production of satellite-derived aerosol climate data records: current status of the ESA Aerosol_cci project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Leeuw, Gerrit; Holzer-Popp, Thomas; Pinnock, Simon

    2015-04-01

    and the Aerosol_cci team Within the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) project Aerosol_cci (Phase 1: 2010 -2014; Phase 2: 2014-2017) intensive work has been conducted to improve algorithms for the retrieval of aerosol information from European sensors ATSR (3 algorithms), PARASOL, MERIS (3 algorithms), synergetic AATSR/SCIAMACHY, OMI and GOMOS. Whereas OMI and GOMOS were used to derive absorbing aerosol index and stratospheric extinction profiles, respectively, Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and Ångström coefficient were retrieved from the other sensors. The cooperation between the project partners, including both the retrieval teams and independent validation teams, has resulted in a strong improvement of most algorithms. In particular the AATSR retrieved AOD is qualitatively similar to that from MODIS, usually taken as the standard, MISR and SeaWiFS. This conclusion has been reached form several different ways of validation of the L2 and L3 products, using AERONET sun photometer data as the common ground-truth for the application of both 'traditional' statistical techniques and a 'scoring' technique using spatial and temporal correlations. Quantitatively, the limited AATSR swath width of 500km results in a smaller amount of data. Nevertheless, the assimilation of AATSR-retrieved AOD, together with MODIS data, contributes to improving the in the ECMWF climate model results. In addition to the multi-spectral AOD, and thus the Ångström Exponent, also a per-pixel uncertainty is provided and validated. By the end of Aerosol_cci Phase 1 the ATSR algorithms have been applied to both ATSR-2 and AATSR resulting in an AOD time series of 17 years. In phase 2 this work is continued with a focus on the further improvement of the ATSR algorithms as well as those for the other instruments and algorithms, mentioned above, which in phase 1 were considered less mature. The first efforts are on the further characterization of the uncertainties and on better understanding of the

  16. Modeling aerosol effects on shallow cumulus convection under various meteorological conditions observed over the Indian Ocean and implications for development of mass-flux parameterizations for climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Hailong; McFarquhar, Greg M.

    2008-10-01

    To determine conditions over the Indian Ocean, under which cloud fields are most susceptible to modification from aerosols, and to study how turbulent activities and shallow cumuli vary for different meteorological scenarios, a three-dimensional large-eddy simulation model was initialized using data collected during the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX). Radiosonde data were used to construct six soundings encompassing the range of temperature and humidity observed. A total of 18 meteorological scenarios were then obtained by adding either an average transition layer (TL), a strong inversion layer (IL), or no stable layer to each sounding. Separate simulations were conducted for each scenario assuming pristine or polluted conditions as observed during INDOEX. For aerosol profiles measured during INDOEX, aerosol semidirect effects always dominated indirect effects, with the positive daytime net indirect forcing (semidirect plus indirect forcings) varying between 0.2 and 4.5 W m-2. Anthropogenic aerosols had a larger net indirect forcing when the environmental relative humidity (RH) was higher and in the absence of the IL and TL. Changes in meteorological factors had larger impacts on the cloud properties than did anthropogenic aerosols, indicating large uncertainties can be introduced when solely using observations to quantify aerosol effects without examining their meteorological context. Because mean lateral detrainment and entrainment rates depended on RH, aerosols, and the presence of stable layers, mass-flux parameterizations in climate models should not use single values for such rates that may not represent the range of conditions observed where trade cumuli form.

  17. Aerosol exposure versus aerosol cooling of climate: what is the optimal emission reduction strategy for human health?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Löndahl, J.; Swietlicki, E.; Lindgren, E.; Loft, S.

    2010-10-01

    Particles, climate change, and health have thought-provoking interactions. Air pollution is one of the largest environmental problems concerning human health. On the other hand, aerosol particles can have a cooling effect on climate and a reduction of those emissions may result in an increased temperature globally, which in turn may have negative health effects. The objective of this work was to investigate the "total health effects" of aerosol emissions, which include both exposure to particles and consequences for climate change initiated by particles. As a case study the "total health effect" from ship emissions was derived by subtracting the number of deaths caused by exposure with the estimated number of lives saved from the cooling effect of the emissions. The analysis showed that, with current level of scientific understanding, it could not be determined whether ship emissions are negative or positive for human health on a short time scale. This first attempt to approximate the combined effect of particle emissions on health shows that reductions of particulate air pollution will in some cases (black carbon) have win-win effects on health and climate, but sometimes also cause a shift from particle exposure-related health effects towards an increasing risk of health consequences from climate change. Thus, measures to reduce aerosol emissions have to be coupled with climate change mitigation actions to achieve a full health benefit on a global level.

  18. Impacts of anthropogenic forcing on regional climate simulation for CORDEX-East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Song Yee; Kang, Hyun Suk; Hyun, Yu Kyung

    2015-04-01

    Impacts of greenhouse gas and aerosol on climate change are crucial, so that it is trivial for CMIP models to consider anthropogenic forcing for current climate simulations and future projection as well. Meanwhile, for regional climate models, it is still ambiguous if those forcings are duplicated or not, since the large-scale information is provided from the GCM models through the lateral boundary condition. To answer this question, four experiments using the HadGEM3-RA were conducted within the CORDEX framework for the East Asia domain, which are defined as FIXF (Fixed forcing experiment), GHGS (Greenhouse gases forcing only on the FIXF), AERO (Aerosol forcing only on the FIXF), and ALL (Both forcings on the FIXF) experiments. All experiments were driven by the same GCM forcing, i.e., HadGEM2-AO. Simulation results for the current (27 years for 1979-2005) and future (30 years for 2071-2100) climate were analyzed. FIXF experiment simulated significant cold biases near the northwestern China and Mongolia. Compared to results from the FIXF, those from the ALL and AERO were better, particularly for the temperature in northwestern China and for the precipitation in southern China, Indonesia and northwestern Pacific. Reduced cold bias in northwestern China is highly associated with the aerosol forcing, and marginally associated with the greenhouse gases forcing. As a result, temperature simulated by ALL experiment shows less bias than any other experiments. In the future, surface air temperature was projected stronger in ALL than FIXF experiment in late 21st century. Especially, based on the future projection from the ALL experiment, increase in domain-averaged surface air temperature is about 3.0oC (4.2oC) under the RCP 4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. In future change of precipitation, regardless of forcing experiments, annual mean precipitation over maritime continent and northwestern Pacific are expected to increase. And percent change in annual mean precipitation of ALL

  19. Impact of the oxidant chemistry description on direct and indirect aerosol forcing estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olivié, D.; Sand, M.; Berntsen, T.; Seland; Kirkevåg, A.; Iversen, T.

    2011-12-01

    Sulfate aerosol is formed as a consequence of the oxidation of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) by the hydroxyl radical (OH), ozone (O3), hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) and the nitrate radical (NO3). In addition, the amount of particulate organic matter (POM) is also influenced by the atmospheric oxidant concentrations. Oxidant levels can therefore have a considerable impact on aerosols and on their direct and indirect forcing. Here we study the impact of the description of these oxidation reactions. The model which is used is the CAM-Oslo model, which contains an aerosol module describing the evolution of DMS, SO2, sea-salt, dust, BC, POM, and sulfate. It also describes the interaction of the aerosols with radiation and clouds, and therefore gives estimates of the direct and indirect forcing of aerosols. In the standard version of the aerosol module, the oxidation rates are calculated using prescribed monthly fields of OH, O3, H2O2 and NO3. In the new version, we use oxidant fields calculated on-line by a full tropospheric chemistry scheme. On-line OH, O3, H2O2 and NO3 distributions induce both lower sulfate concentrations (-10 %) and lower POM concentrations (-2.5 %). The impact on the direct and indirect forcing is +0.065 and +0.185 W/m2 respectively, underlining the importance of the oxidant description for the estimation of the direct and indirect aerosol forcing.

  20. Are atmospheric updrafts a key to unlocking climate forcing and sensitivity?

    DOE PAGES

    Donner, Leo J.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Rieger, Daniel; ...

    2016-10-20

    Both climate forcing and climate sensitivity persist as stubborn uncertainties limiting the extent to which climate models can provide actionable scientific scenarios for climate change. A key, explicit control on cloud–aerosol interactions, the largest uncertainty in climate forcing, is the vertical velocity of cloud-scale updrafts. Model-based studies of climate sensitivity indicate that convective entrainment, which is closely related to updraft speeds, is an important control on climate sensitivity. Updraft vertical velocities also drive many physical processes essential to numerical weather prediction.Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climate andmore » numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying vertical velocities, and parameterizations that do provide vertical velocities have been subject to limited evaluation against what have until recently been scant observations. Atmospheric observations imply that the distribution of vertical velocities depends on the areas over which the vertical velocities are averaged. Distributions of vertical velocities in climate models may capture this behavior, but it has not been accounted for when parameterizing cloud and precipitation processes in current models.New observations of convective vertical velocities offer a potentially promising path toward developing process-level cloud models and parameterizations for climate and numerical weather prediction. Taking account of the scale dependence of resolved vertical velocities offers a path to matching cloud-scale physical processes and their driving dynamics more realistically, with a prospect of reduced uncertainty in both climate forcing and sensitivity.« less

  1. Are atmospheric updrafts a key to unlocking climate forcing and sensitivity?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donner, Leo J.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Rieger, Daniel; Vogel, Bernhard; Cooke, William F.

    2016-10-01

    Both climate forcing and climate sensitivity persist as stubborn uncertainties limiting the extent to which climate models can provide actionable scientific scenarios for climate change. A key, explicit control on cloud-aerosol interactions, the largest uncertainty in climate forcing, is the vertical velocity of cloud-scale updrafts. Model-based studies of climate sensitivity indicate that convective entrainment, which is closely related to updraft speeds, is an important control on climate sensitivity. Updraft vertical velocities also drive many physical processes essential to numerical weather prediction.Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climate and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying vertical velocities, and parameterizations that do provide vertical velocities have been subject to limited evaluation against what have until recently been scant observations. Atmospheric observations imply that the distribution of vertical velocities depends on the areas over which the vertical velocities are averaged. Distributions of vertical velocities in climate models may capture this behavior, but it has not been accounted for when parameterizing cloud and precipitation processes in current models.New observations of convective vertical velocities offer a potentially promising path toward developing process-level cloud models and parameterizations for climate and numerical weather prediction. Taking account of the scale dependence of resolved vertical velocities offers a path to matching cloud-scale physical processes and their driving dynamics more realistically, with a prospect of reduced uncertainty in both climate forcing and sensitivity.

  2. Using explicit macroscopic feedback to determine efficacy of climate forcings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kravitz, B.; MacMartin, D. G.

    2013-12-01

    Calculating efficacies of climate forcings has been a useful method of determining the importance of forcing agents relative to CO2. However, because the strength of internal feedbacks is dependent upon the climate state, efficacies are dependent upon the strengths of the applied forcings, and simulations designed to capture these efficacies have tradeoffs between simulation length and accurately capturing the steady state climate response. We propose an alternate method of determining a quantity similar to climate efficacy via adjusting the amount of forcing by feeding back the observed climate state. By balancing CO2 forcing with another climate forcing, many internal feedbacks are suppressed, which linearizes the climate response to the forcing and promotes rapid convergence of the simulation. We performed simulations in two fully coupled general circulation models of Earth's climate. Doubling the present day CO2 concentration requires a steady state solar reduction of approximately 2.5%; this answer can be obtained with a simulation of less than 30 years. With this method, the amount of solar reduction scales linearly with the logarithmic change in CO2 concentration. We explore similar calculations using other climate forcings. Because this method circumvents calculation of radiative forcing, intercomparison of values between different climate forcings is difficult and is a drawback of our method as compared to the original method of calculating efficacy. Feedback can be used to estimate the efficacy of solar reductions in models. The solar reduction that is required to maintain temperature in the presence of an instantaneous change in atmospheric CO2 concentrations is computed using feedback. The left-hand panel illustrates both the solar forcing as a function of time for offsetting 2×CO2, and the efficacy estimated as the mean solar reduction after the initial transient; extremely rapid convergence is obtained. The right-hand panel illustrates the linearity

  3. Introducing the aerosol-climate model MAECHAM5-SAM2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hommel, R.; Timmreck, C.; Graf, H. F.

    2009-04-01

    We are presenting a new global aerosol model MAECHAM5-SAM2 to study the aerosol dynamics in the UTLS under background and volcanic conditions. The microphysical core modul SAM2 treats the formation, the evolution and the transport of stratospheric sulphuric acid aerosol. The aerosol size distribution and the weight percentage of the sulphuric acid solution is calculated dependent on the concentrations of H2SO4 and H2O, their vapor pressures, the atmospheric temperature and pressure. The fixed sectional method is used to resolve an aerosol distribution between 1 nm and 2.6 micron in particle radius. Homogeneous nucleation, condensation and evaporation, coagulation, water-vapor growth, sedimentation and sulphur chemistry are included. The module is applied in the middle-atmosphere MAECHAM5 model, resolving the atmosphere up to 0.01 hPa (~80 km) in 39 layers. It is shown here that MAECHAM5-SAM2 well represents in-situ measured size distributions of stratospheric background aerosol in the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes. Distinct differences can be seen when derived integrated aerosol parameters (surface area, effective radius) are compared with aerosol climatologies based on the SAGE II satellite instrument (derived by the University of Oxford and the NASA AMES laboratory). The bias between the model and the SAGE II data increases as the moment of the aerosol size distribution decreases. Thus the modeled effective radius show the strongest bias, followed by the aerosol surface area density. Correspondingly less biased are the higher moments volume area density and the mass density of the global stratospheric aerosol coverage. This finding supports the key finding No. 2 of the SPARC Assessment of Stratospheric Aerosol Properties (2006), where it was shown that during periods of very low aerosol load in the stratosphere, the consistency between in-situ and satellite measurements, which exist in a volcanically perturbed stratosphere, breaks down and significant

  4. Do Responses to Different Anthropogenic Forcings Add Linearly in Climate Models?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Shindell, Drew; Bonfils, Celine; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Nazarenko, Larissa; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2015-01-01

    Many detection and attribution and pattern scaling studies assume that the global climate response to multiple forcings is additive: that the response over the historical period is statistically indistinguishable from the sum of the responses to individual forcings. Here, we use the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM) simulations from the CMIP5 archive to test this assumption for multi-year trends in global-average, annual-average temperature and precipitation at multiple timescales. We find that responses in models forced by pre-computed aerosol and ozone concentrations are generally additive across forcings; however, we demonstrate that there are significant nonlinearities in precipitation responses to di?erent forcings in a configuration of the GISS model that interactively computes these concentrations from precursor emissions. We attribute these to di?erences in ozone forcing arising from interactions between forcing agents. Our results suggest that attribution to specific forcings may be complicated in a model with fully interactive chemistry and may provide motivation for other modeling groups to conduct further single-forcing experiments.

  5. Do responses to different anthropogenic forcings add linearly in climate models?

    SciTech Connect

    Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Shindell, Drew; Bonfils, Celine; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Nazarenko, Larissa; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2015-10-14

    Many detection and attribution and pattern scaling studies assume that the global climate response to multiple forcings is additive: that the response over the historical period is statistically indistinguishable from the sum of the responses to individual forcings. Here, we use the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) simulations from the CMIP5 archive to test this assumption for multi-year trends in global-average, annual-average temperature and precipitation at multiple timescales. We find that responses in models forced by pre-computed aerosol and ozone concentrations are generally additive across forcings. However, we demonstrate that there are significant nonlinearities in precipitation responses to different forcings in a configuration of the GISS model that interactively computes these concentrations from precursor emissions. We attribute these to differences in ozone forcing arising from interactions between forcing agents. Lastly, our results suggest that attribution to specific forcings may be complicated in a model with fully interactive chemistry and may provide motivation for other modeling groups to conduct further single-forcing experiments.