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Sample records for aerosol climate forcing

  1. Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols.

    PubMed

    Charlson, R J; Schwartz, S E; Hales, J M; Cess, R D; Coakley, J A; Hansen, J E; Hofmann, D J

    1992-01-24

    Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol in particular has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of shortwavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square meter, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes. PMID:17842894

  2. Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Charlson, R. J.; Schwartz, S. E.; Hales, J. M.; Cess, R. D.; Coakley, J. A., Jr.; Hansen, J. E.; Hofmann, D. J.

    1992-01-01

    Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol, in particular, has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of short-wavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square meter, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes.

  3. Simulation of Climate Forcing by Aerosols

    SciTech Connect

    Ghan, Steven J.; Bian, Xindi; Chapman, Elaine G.; Easter, Richard C.; Fann, George I.; Kothari, Suraj C.; Zaveri, Rahul A.; Zhang, Yang

    2004-05-03

    The largest source of uncertainty in estimates of the radiative forcing governing climate change is in the radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosols. Current estimates of the global mean of the aerosol radiative forcing range from –0.3 to –3.0 watts per square meter (Wm-2 ) which is opposite in sign and possibly comparable in magnitude to the +2 Wm-2 forcing due to increasing greenhouse gases. We have developed a global aerosol and climate modeling system that provides arguably the most detailed treatment of aerosols and their impact on the planetary radiation balance of any model, but our estimates of radiative forcing have been hindered by our lack of access to high performance computing resources. We propose to use the MSCF to conduct a series of simulations with and without emissions of a variety of aerosol particles and aerosol precursors. These extensive simulations will enable us to produce much more refined estimates of the impact of anthropogenic emissions on radiative forcing of climate change. To take full advantage of the parallelism available on the MSCF MPP1, we will apply the Global Array Toolkit to dynamically load balance the reactive chemistry component of our model. We will adapt our modifications of the serial NCAR Community Climate Model CCM2 to the parallel NCAR CCM3.10.

  4. Climate Implications of the Heterogeneity of Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Persad, Geeta Gayatri

    Short-lived anthropogenic aerosols are concentrated in regions of high human activity, where they interact with radiation and clouds, causing horizontally heterogeneous radiative forcing between polluted and unpolluted regions. Aerosols can absorb shortwave energy in the atmosphere, but deplete it at the surface, producing opposite radiative perturbations between the surface and atmosphere. This thesis investigates climate and policy implications of this horizontal and vertical heterogeneity of anthropogenic aerosol forcing, employing the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's AM2.1 and AM3 models, both at a global scale and using East Asia as a regional case study. The degree of difference between spatial patterns of climate change due to heterogeneous aerosol forcing versus homogeneous greenhouse gas forcing deeply impacts the detection, attribution, and prediction of regional climate change. This dissertation addresses a gap in current understanding of these two forcings' response pattern development, using AM2.1 historical forcing simulations. The results indicate that fast atmospheric and land-surface processes alone substantially homogenize the global pattern of surface energy flux response to heterogeneous aerosol forcing. Aerosols' vertical redistribution of energy significantly impacts regional climate, but is incompletely understood. It is newly identified here, via observations and historical and idealized forcing simulations, that increased aerosol-driven atmospheric absorption may explain half of East Asia's recent surface insolation decline. Further, aerosols' surface and atmospheric effects counteract each other regionally---atmospheric heating enhances summer monsoon circulation, while surface dimming suppresses it---but absorbing aerosols' combined effects reduce summer monsoon rainfall. This thesis constitutes the first vertical decomposition of aerosols' impacts in this high-emissions region and elucidates the monsoonal response to aerosols

  5. Why is the climate forcing of sulfate aerosols so uncertain?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rongming, Hu; Planton, Serge; Déque, Michel; Marquet, Pascal; Braun, Alain

    2001-12-01

    Sulfate aerosol particles have strong scattering effect on the solar radiation transfer which results in increasing the planet albedo and, hence, tend to cool the earth-atmosphere system. Also, aerosols can act as the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) which tend to increase the albedo of clouds and cool the global warming. The ARPEGE-Climat version 3 AGCM with FMR radiation scheme is used to estimate the direct and indirect radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols. For minimizing the uncertainties in assessing this kind of cooling effect, all kinds of factors are analyzed which have been mixed in the assessment process and may lead to the different results of the radiative forcing of aerosols. It is noticed that one of the uncertainties to assess the climate forcing of aerosols by GCM results from the different definition of radiative forcing that was used. In order to clarify this vague idea, the off-line case for considering no feedbacks and on-line case for including all the feedbacks have been used for assessment. The direct forcing of sulfate aerosols in off-line case is -0.57 W/ m2 and -0.38 W/ m2 for the clear sky and all sky respectively. The value of on-line case appears to be a little larger than that in off-line case chiefly due to the feedback of clouds. The indirect forcing of sulfate aerosols in off-line case is -1.4 W/ m2 and -1.0 W/ m2 in on-line case. The radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols has obvious regional characteristics. There is a larger negative radiative forcing over North America, Europe and East Asia. If the direct and indirect forcing are added together, it is enough to offset the positive radiative forcing induced by the greenhouse gases in these regions.

  6. Strategy to use the Terra Aerosol Information to Derive the Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kaufman, Yoram J.; Tanre, Didier; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Terra will derive the aerosol optical thickness and properties. The aerosol properties can be used to distinguish between natural and human-made aerosol. In the polar orbit Terra will measure aerosol only once a day, around 10:30 am. How will we use this information to study the global radiative impacts of aerosol on climate? We shall present a strategy to address this problem. It includes the following steps: - From the Terra aerosol optical thickness and size distribution model we derive the effect of aerosol on reflection of solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere. In a sensitivity study we show that the effect of aerosol on solar fluxes can be derived 10 times more accurately from the MODIS data than derivation of the optical thickness itself. Applications to data over several regions will be given. - Using 1/2 million AERONET global data of aerosol spectral optical thickness we show that the aerosol optical thickness and properties during the Terra 10:30 pass are equivalent to the daily average. Due to the aerosol lifetime of several days measurements at this time of the day are enough to assess the daily impact of aerosol on radiation. - Aerosol impact on the top of the atmosphere is only part of the climate question. The INDOEX experiment showed that addressing the impact of aerosol on climate, requires also measurements of the aerosol forcing at the surface. This can be done by a combination of measurements of MODIS and AERONET data.

  7. Satellite methods underestimate indirect climate forcing by aerosols

    PubMed Central

    Penner, Joyce E.; Xu, Li; Wang, Minghuai

    2011-01-01

    Satellite-based estimates of the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) are consistently smaller than the estimates from global aerosol models, and, partly as a result of these differences, the assessment of this climate forcing includes large uncertainties. Satellite estimates typically use the present-day (PD) relationship between observed cloud drop number concentrations (Nc) and aerosol optical depths (AODs) to determine the preindustrial (PI) values of Nc. These values are then used to determine the PD and PI cloud albedos and, thus, the effect of anthropogenic aerosols on top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes. Here, we use a model with realistic aerosol and cloud processes to show that empirical relationships for ln(Nc) versus ln(AOD) derived from PD results do not represent the atmospheric perturbation caused by the addition of anthropogenic aerosols to the preindustrial atmosphere. As a result, the model estimates based on satellite methods of the AIE are between a factor of 3 to more than a factor of 6 smaller than model estimates based on actual PD and PI values for Nc. Using ln(Nc) versus ln(AI) (Aerosol Index, or the optical depth times angstrom exponent) to estimate preindustrial values for Nc provides estimates for Nc and forcing that are closer to the values predicted by the model. Nevertheless, the AIE using ln(Nc) versus ln(AI) may be substantially incorrect on a regional basis and may underestimate or overestimate the global average forcing by 25 to 35%. PMID:21808047

  8. Remote Sensing of Aerosol and their Radiative Forcing of Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kaufman, Yoram J.; Tanre, Didier; Remer, Lorraine A.

    1999-01-01

    Remote sensing of aerosol and aerosol radiative forcing of climate is going through a major transformation. The launch in next few years of new satellites designed specifically for remote sensing of aerosol is expected to further revolutionized aerosol measurements: until five years ago satellites were not designed for remote sensing of aerosol. Aerosol optical thickness was derived as a by product, only over the oceans using one AVHRR channel with errors of approx. 50%. However it already revealed a very important first global picture of the distribution and sources of aerosol. In the last 5 years we saw the introduction of polarization and multi-view observations (POLDER and ATSR) for satellite remote sensing of aerosol over land and ocean. Better products are derived from AVHRR using its two channels. The new TOMS aerosol index shows the location and transport of aerosol over land and ocean. Now we anticipate the launch of EOS-Terra with MODIS, MISR and CERES on board for multi-view, multi-spectral remote sensing of aerosol and its radiative forcing. This will allow application of new techniques, e.g. using a wide spectral range (0.55-2.2 microns) to derive precise optical thickness, particle size and mass loading. Aerosol is transparent in the 2.2 microns channel, therefore this channel can be used to detect surface features that in turn are used to derive the aerosol optical thickness in the visible part of the spectrum. New techniques are developed to derive the aerosol single scattering albedo, a measure of absorption of sunlight, and techniques to derive directly the aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere. In the last 5 years a global network of sun/sky radiometers was formed, designed to communicate in real time the spectral optical thickness from 50-80 locations every day, every 15 minutes. The sky angular and spectral information is also measured and used to retrieve the aerosol size distribution, refractive index, single scattering albedo and the

  9. The relative roles of sulfate aerosols and greenhouse gases in climate forcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kiehl, J. T.; Briegleb, B. P.

    1993-01-01

    Calculations of the effects of both natural and anthropogenic tropospheric sulfate aerosols indicate that the aerosol climate forcing is sufficiently large in a number of regions of the Northern Hemisphere to reduce significantly the positive forcing from increased greenhouse gases. Summer sulfate aerosol forcing in the Northern Hemisphere completely offsets the greenhouse forcing over the eastern United States and central Europe. Anthropogenic sulfate aerosols contribute a globally averaged annual forcing of -0.3 watt per square meter as compared with +2.1 watts per square meter for greenhouse gases. Sources of the difference in magnitude with the previous estimate of Charlson et al. (1992) are discussed.

  10. Stratospheric aerosol forcing for climate modeling: 1850-1978

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arfeuille, Florian; Luo, Beiping; Thomason, Larry; Vernier, Jean-Paul; Peter, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    We present here a stratospheric aerosol dataset produced using the available aerosol optical depth observations from the pre-satellite period. The scarce atmospheric observations are supplemented by additional information from an aerosol microphysical model, initialized by ice-core derived sulfur emissions. The model is used to derive extinctions at all altitudes, latitudes and times when sulfur injections are known for specific volcanic eruptions. The simulated extinction coefficients are then scaled to match the observed optical depths. In order to produce the complete optical properties at all wavelengths (and the aerosol surface area and volume densities) needed by climate models, we assume a lognormal size distribution of the aerosols. Correlations between the extinctions in the visible and the effective radius and distribution width parameters are taken from the better constrained SAGE II period. The aerosol number densities are then fitted to match the derived extinctions in the 1850-1978 period. From these aerosol size distributions, we then calculate extinction coefficients, single scattering albedos and asymmetry factors at all wavelengths using the Mie theory. The aerosol surface area densities and volume densities are also provided.

  11. Detecting cross-equatorial wind change as a fingerprint of climate response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Hai; Xie, Shang-Ping; Tokinaga, Hiroki; Liu, Qinyu; Kosaka, Yu

    2016-04-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols are a major driver of the twetieth century climate change. In climate models, the aerosol forcing, larger in the Northern than Southern Hemispheres, induces an interhemispheric Hadley circulation. In support of the model result, we detected a robust change in the zonal mean cross-equatorial wind over the past 60 years from ship observations and reanalyses, accompanied by physically consistent changes in atmospheric pressure and marine cloud cover. Single-forcing experiments indicate that the observed change in cross-equatorial wind is a fingerprint of aerosol forcing. This zonal mean mode follows the evolution of global aerosol forcing that is distinct from regional changes in the Atlantic sector. Atmospheric simulations successfully reproduce this interhemispheric mode, indicating the importance of sea surface temperature mediation in response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing. As societies awaken to reduce aerosol emissions, a phase reversal of this interhemispheric mode is expected in the 21st century.

  12. Observational constraints for climate forcing by biomass burning aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Penner, J. E.; Zhou, C.; Prather, M. J.; Xu, L.

    2012-12-01

    Estimates of sources of aerosols from open biomass burning vary to a significant extent, and those for pre-industrial emissions are even more uncertain. Previously, we showed how the use of a global chemical transport model together with TOMS satellite data for aerosol index and black carbon (BC) concentrations in ice-cores can be used to constrain present-day (PD) (year 2000) and pre-industrial (PI) (year 1870) emissions. The total aerosol forcing (direct and warm cloud indirect) from these emissions was estimated to be -0.065 W m-2, although values as large as -0.21 W m-2 could not be excluded. Here, we further examine the consistency between our estimates of biomass burning sources and observations of the spectrally varying AAOD from AERONET. We present adjusted estimates that also include these observations.

  13. Impact of Mixing State on Anthropogenic Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Associated Climate Response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avramov, A.; Shin, H. J.; Wang, C.

    2014-12-01

    Atmospheric aerosols affect Earth's radiation balance directly by scattering and absorbing solar radiation and, indirectly, by changing the microphysical structure, lifetime and spatial extent of clouds. The aerosol mixing state to a large extent determines not only their optical properties (direct effect) but also their ability to serve as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei (indirect effect). Results from previous research have highlighted the importance of the aerosol mixing assumptions in radiative forcing estimates in model simulations. Here we take a step further to analyze the differences in associated climate responses, using a multimodal, size- and mixing-dependent aerosol model (MARC) incorporated within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The new model allows for a detailed representation of aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions by including an improved treatment of aerosol mixing state and composition. First, we estimate and compare the magnitudes of direct and indirect forcing of anthropogenic aerosols under different mixing assumptions. We then carry out several century-long fully-coupled climate simulations designed to isolate the climate responses to direct and indirect forcings under the same aerosol mixing assumptions. In our analysis, we specifically focus on the following three climate response components: 1) cloud distribution and coverage; 2) precipitation amount and distribution; and 3) changes in circulation patterns.

  14. Aerosol Climate Effects: Local Radiative Forcing and Column Closure Experiments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Russell, P. B.; Bergstrom, Robert W.; Kinne, S. A.

    2000-01-01

    In an effort to reduce uncertainties in climate change predictions, experiments are being planned and conducted to measure anthropogenic aerosol properties and effects, including effects on radiative fields. The global average, direct anthropogenic aerosol effect on upwelling shortwave fluxes is estimated to be about +1/2 W/sq m, whereas errors in flux changes measured with airborne and spaceborne radiometers are 2 to 8 W/sq m or larger. This poses the question of whether flux changes expected in field experiments will be large enough to measure accurately. This paper obtains a new expression for the aerosol-induced change in upwelling flux, compares it to two-stream and adding-doubling (AD) results, and uses all three methods to estimate expected flux changes. The new expression accounts for the solar zenith angle dependences of aerosol transmission and reflection, as well as of surface albedo, all of which can have a strong effect in determining flux changes measured in field experiments. Despite its relative simplicity, the new expression gives results similar to previous two-stream results. Relative to AD results, it agrees within a few watts per square meter for the intermediate solar elevation angles where the flux changes peak (roughly 10 to 30 degrees), but it has negative errors for higher Sun and positive errors for lower Sun. All three techniques yield aerosol-induced changes in upwelling flux of +8 to +50 W/sq m for aerosol midvisible optical depths of 0.1 to 0.5. Because such aerosol optical depths occur frequently off the U.S. and European Atlantic coasts in summer, the flux changes they induce should be measurable by airborne, and possibly by spaceborne, radiometers, provided sufficient care is taken in experiment design (including measurements to separate aerosol radiative effects from those of absorbing gases). The expected flux changes are about 15 to 100 times larger than the global average flux change expected for the global average

  15. Tropospheric Aerosol Climate Forcing in Clear-Sky Satellite Observations over the Oceans.

    PubMed

    Haywood; Ramaswamy; Soden

    1999-02-26

    Tropospheric aerosols affect the radiative forcing of Earth's climate, but their variable concentrations complicate an understanding of their global influence. Model-based estimates of aerosol distributions helped reveal spatial patterns indicative of the presence of tropospheric aerosols in the satellite-observed clear-sky solar radiation budget over the world's oceans. The results show that, although geographical signatures due to both natural and anthropogenic aerosols are manifest in the satellite observations, the naturally occurring sea-salt is the leading aerosol contributor to the global-mean clear-sky radiation balance over oceans. PMID:10037595

  16. Radiative forcing and climate response to projected 21st century aerosol decreases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Golaz, J.-C.; Mauzerall, D. L.

    2015-11-01

    It is widely expected that global emissions of atmospheric aerosols and their precursors will decrease strongly throughout the remainder of the 21st century, due to emission reduction policies enacted to protect human health. For instance, global emissions of aerosols and their precursors are projected to decrease by as much as 80 % by the year 2100, according to the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The removal of aerosols will cause unintended climate consequences, including an unmasking of global warming from long-lived greenhouse gases. We use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Climate Model version 3 (GFDL CM3) to simulate future climate over the 21st century with and without the aerosol emission changes projected by each of the RCPs in order to isolate the radiative forcing and climate response resulting from the aerosol reductions. We find that the projected global radiative forcing and climate response due to aerosol decreases do not vary significantly across the four RCPs by 2100, although there is some mid-century variation, especially in cloud droplet effective radius, that closely follows the RCP emissions and energy consumption projections. Up to 1 W m-2 of radiative forcing may be unmasked globally from 2005 to 2100 due to reductions in aerosol and precursor emissions, leading to average global temperature increases up to 1 K and global precipitation rate increases up to 0.09 mm day-1. However, when using a version of CM3 with reduced present-day aerosol radiative forcing (-1.0 W m-2), the global temperature increase for RCP8.5 is about 0.5 K, with similar magnitude decreases in other climate response parameters as well. Regionally and locally, climate impacts can be much larger than the global mean, with a 2.1 K warming projected over China, Japan, and Korea due to the reduced aerosol emissions in RCP8.5, as well as nearly a 0.2 mm day-1 precipitation increase, a 7 g m-2 LWP decrease, and a 2 μm increase in

  17. Radiative forcing and climate response to projected 21st century aerosol decreases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Mauzerall, D. L.

    2015-03-01

    It is widely expected that global emissions of atmospheric aerosols and their precursors will decrease strongly throughout the remainder of the 21st century, due to emission reduction policies enacted to protect human health. For instance, global emissions of aerosols and their precursors are projected to decrease by as much as 80% by the year 2100, according to the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The removal of aerosols will cause unintended climate consequences, including an unmasking of global warming from long-lived greenhouse gases. We use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 3 (GFDL CM3) to simulate future climate over the 21st century with and without the aerosol emission changes projected by each of the RCPs in order to isolate the radiative forcing and climate response resulting from the aerosol reductions. We find that the projected global radiative forcing and climate response due to aerosol decreases do not vary significantly across the four RCPs by 2100, although there is some mid-century variation, especially in cloud droplet effective radius, that closely follows the RCP emissions and energy consumption projections. Up to 1 W m-2 of radiative forcing may be unmasked globally from 2005 to 2100 due to reductions in aerosol and precursor emissions, leading to average global temperature increases up to 1 K and global precipitation rate increases up to 0.09 mm d-1. Regionally and locally, climate impacts can be much larger, with a 2.1 K warming projected over China, Japan, and Korea due to the reduced aerosol emissions in RCP8.5, as well as nearly a 0.2 mm d-1 precipitation increase, a 7 g m-2 LWP decrease, and a 2 μm increase in cloud droplet effective radius. Future aerosol decreases could be responsible for 30-40% of total climate warming by 2100 in East Asia, even under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP8.5). The expected unmasking of global warming caused by aerosol reductions will

  18. Coupling Satellite and Ground-Based Instruments to Map Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Charlson, Robert J.; Anderson, Theodore L.; Hostetler, Chris (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols is a significant but highly uncertain factor in global climate change. Only satellites can offer the global coverage essential to reducing this uncertainty; however, satellite measurements must be coupled with correlative, in situ measurements both to constrain the aerosol optical properties required in satellite retrieval algorithms and to provide chemical identification of aerosol sources. This grant funded the first two years of a three-year project which seeks to develop methodologies for combining spaceborne lidar with in-situ aerosol data sets to improve estimates of direct aerosol climate forcing. Progress under this two-year grant consisted in the development and deployment of a new in-situ capability for measuring aerosol 180' backscatter and the extinction-to-backscatter ratio. This new measurement capacity allows definitive lidar/in-situ comparisons and improves our ability to interpret lidar data in terms of climatically relevant quantities such as the extinction coefficient and optical depth. Measurements were made along the coast of Washington State, in Central Illinois, over the Indian Ocean, and in the Central Pacific. Thus, this research, combined with previous measurements by others, is rapidly building toward a global data set of extinction-to-backscatter ratio for key aerosol types. Such information will be critical to interpreting lidar data from the upcoming PICASSO-CENA, or P-C, satellite mission. Another aspect of this project is to investigate innovative ways to couple the lidar-satellite signal with targeted in-situ measurements toward a direct determination of aerosol forcing. This aspect is progressing in collaboration with NASA Langley's P-C lidar simulator and radiative transfer modeling by the University of Lille, France.

  19. Coupling Satellite and Ground-Based Instruments to Map Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosol

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Charlson, Robert J.; Anderson, Theodore L.; Hostetler, Chris (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols is a significant but highly uncertain factor in global climate change. Only satellites can offer the global coverage essential to reducing this uncertainty; however, satellite measurements must be coupled with correlative, in situ measurements both to constrain the aerosol optical properties required in satellite retrieval algorithms and to provide chemical identification of aerosol sources. This grant funded the third year of a three-year project which seeks to develop methodologies for combining spaceborne lidar with in-situ aerosol data sets to improve estimates of direct aerosol climate forcing. Progress under this one-year grant consisted in analysis and publication of field studies using a new in-situ capability for measuring aerosol 180 deg backscatter and the extinction-to-backscatter ratio. This new measurement capacity allows definitive lidar/in-situ comparisons and improves our ability to interpret lidar data in terms of climatically relevant quantities such as the extinction coefficient and optical depth. Analyzed data consisted of measurements made along the coast of Washington State, in Central Illinois, over the Indian Ocean, and in the Central Pacific. Thus, this research, combined with previous measurements by others, is rapidly building toward a global data set of extinction-to-backscatter ratio for key aerosol types. Such information will be critical to interpreting lidar data from the upcoming PICASSO-CENA, or P-C, satellite mission. Another aspect of this project is to investigate innovative ways to couple the lidar-satellite signal with target in-situ measurements toward a direct determination of aerosol forcing. This aspect is progressing in collaboration with NASA Langley's P-C lidar simulator.

  20. A Strategy to Assess Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing of Climate Using Satellite Radiation Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kaufman, Yoram J.; Tanre, Didier; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Atmospheric aerosols have a complex internal chemical composition and optical properties. Therefore it is difficult to model their impact on redistribution and absorption of solar radiation, and the consequent impact on atmospheric dynamics and climate. The use in climate models of isolated aerosol parameters retrieved from satellite data (e.g. optical thickness) may result in inconsistent calculations, if the model assumptions differ from these of the satellite retrieval schemes. Here we suggest a strategy to assess the direct impact of aerosol on the radiation budget at the top and bottom of the atmosphere using satellite and ground based measurements of the spectral solar radiation scattered by the aerosol. This method ensures consistent use of the satellite data and increases its accuracy. For Kaufman and Tanre: Strategy for aerosol direct forcing anthropogenic aerosol in the fine mode (e.g. biomass burning smoke and urban pollution) consistent use of satellite derived optical thickness can yield the aerosol impact on the spectral solar flux with accuracy an order of magnitude better than the optical thickness itself. For example, a simulated monthly average smoke optical thickness of 0.5 at 0.55 microns (forcing of 40-50 W/sq m) derived with an error of 20%, while the forcing can be measured directly with an error of only 0-2 W/sq m. Another example, the effect of large dust particles on reflection of solar flux can be derived three times better than retrievals of optical thickness. Since aerosol impacts not only the top of the atmosphere but also the surface irradiation, a combination of satellite and ground based measurements of the spectral flux, can be the most direct mechanism to evaluate the aerosol effect on climate and assimilate it in climate models. The strategy is applied to measurements from SCAR-B and the Tarfox experiments. In SCAR-B aircraft spectral data are used to derive the 24 hour radiative forcing of smoke at the top of the atmosphere of

  1. Sulfate aerosol nucleation, primary emissions, and cloud radiative forcing in the aerosol- climate model ECHAM5-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kazil, J.; Quaas, J.; Kinne, S.; Rast, S.; Stier, P.; Feichter, J.

    2008-12-01

    Aerosol nucleation from the gas phase is a major source of aerosol particles in the Earth's atmosphere, contributing to the number of cloud condensation nuclei and consequently of cloud droplets. Nucleation can therefore act upon cloud radiative properties, cloud lifetimes, and precipitation rates via the first and second indirect aerosol effect. However, freshly nucleated particles measure a few nanometers in diameter, and need to grow to sizes of tens of nanometers in order to participate in atmospherically relevant processes. Depending on the availability of condensable molecules, this process may proceed on time scales between minutes to days. Concurrently, the aerosol particles that formed from the gas phase compete with aerosol particles emitted from the surface for condensable material. Therefore, cloud radiative properties, cloud lifetimes, and precipitation rates will depend to various degrees on aerosol nucleation rates and on the individual nucleation pathways. We have implemented a scheme describing the formation of new particles from the gas phase based on laboratory thermochemical data for neutral and charged nucleation of sulfuric acid and water into the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM. Here we discuss the role of new particle formation from the gas phase for cloud radiative properties and the contributions of the considered nucleation pathways as well as of particulate sulfate emissions. Our simulations show that sulfate aerosol nucleation plays an important role for cloud radiative forcing, in particular over the oceans and in the southern hemisphere. A comparison of the simulated cloud radiative forcing with satellite observations shows the best agreement when both neutral and charged nucleation proceed, with neutral nucleation playing a minor role in the current model version. In contrast, switching off nucleation leads to a systematic bias of the results away from the observations, indicating an important role of aerosol nucleation in the

  2. The Spatial and Temporal Heterogeneity of Precipitation and Aerosol-Cloud Radiative Forcing Uncertainty in Climatically Important Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Regayre, L.; Pringle, K.; Lee, L.; Booth, B.; Browse, J.; Mann, G.; Woodhouse, M. T.; Reddington, C.; Carslaw, K. S.; Rap, A.

    2015-12-01

    Aerosol-cloud radiative forcing and precipitation sensitivities are quantified within climatically important regions, where surface temperatures and moisture availability are thought to influence large-scale climatic effects. The sensitivity of precipitation and the balance of incoming and outgoing radiation to uncertain historical aerosol emission fluxes and aerosol-cloud parametrisations are quantified and their climatic importance considered. The predictability of monsoon onset and intensity, position of the inter-tropical convergence zone, tropical storm frequency and intensity, heat transport to the Arctic and changes in the mode of the El Niño Southern Oscillation are all limited by the parametric uncertainties examined here. Precipitation and aerosol-cloud radiative forcing sensitivities are found to be both spatially and temporally heterogeneous. Statistical analysis highlights aspects of aerosol-climate research and model development that should be prioritised in order to reduce the impact of uncertainty in regional precipitation and aerosol-cloud forcing on near-term climate projections.

  3. Global Distribution and Climate Forcing of Marine Organic Aerosol - Part 2: Effects on Cloud Properties and Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Gantt, Brett; Xu, Jun; Meskhidze, N.; Zhang, Yang; Nenes, Athanasios; Ghan, Steven J.; Liu, Xiaohong; Easter, Richard C.; Zaveri, Rahul A.

    2012-07-25

    A series of simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) with a 7-mode Modal Aerosol Model were conducted to assess the changes in cloud microphysical properties and radiative forcing resulting from marine organic aerosols. Model simulations show that the anthropogenic aerosol indirect forcing (AIF) predicted by CAM5 is decreased in absolute magnitude by up to 0.09 Wm{sup -2} (7 %) when marine organic aerosols are included. Changes in the AIF from marine organic aerosols are associated with small global increases in low-level incloud droplet number concentration and liquid water path of 1.3 cm{sup -3} (1.5 %) and 0.22 gm{sup -2} (0.5 %), respectively. Areas especially sensitive to changes in cloud properties due to marine organic aerosol include the Southern Ocean, North Pacific Ocean, and North Atlantic Ocean, all of which are characterized by high marine organic emission rates. As climate models are particularly sensitive to the background aerosol concentration, this small but non-negligible change in the AIF due to marine organic aerosols provides a notable link for ocean-ecosystem marine low-level cloud interactions and may be a candidate for consideration in future earth system models.

  4. Climatic Effects of 1950-2050 Changes in US Anthropogenic Aerosols. Part 1; Aerosol Trends and Radiative Forcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leibensperger, E. M.; Mickley, L. J.; Jacob, D. J.; Chen, W.-T.; Seinfeld, J. H.; Nenes, A.; Adams, P. J.; Streets, D. G.; Kumar, N.; Rind, D.

    2012-01-01

    We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950-2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980-2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970-1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100 deg W) of -2.0Wm(exp-2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (-2.0Wm-2), nitrate (-0.2Wm(exp-2), organic carbon (-0.2Wm(exp-2), and black carbon (+0.4Wm(exp-2). The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50 %. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8Wm(exp-2) direct and 1.0Wm(exp-2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3Wm(exp-2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide) suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

  5. GCM simulations of volcanic aerosol forcing. I - Climate changes induced by steady-state perturbations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pollack, James B.; Rind, David; Lacis, Andrew; Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto

    1993-01-01

    The response of the climate system to a temporally and spatially constant amount of volcanic particles is simulated using a general circulation model (GCM). The optical depth of the aerosols is chosen so as to produce approximately the same amount of forcing as results from doubling the present CO2 content of the atmosphere and from the boundary conditions associated with the peak of the last ice age. The climate changes produced by long-term volcanic aerosol forcing are obtained by differencing this simulation and one made for the present climate with no volcanic aerosol forcing. The simulations indicate that a significant cooling of the troposphere and surface can occur at times of closely spaced multiple sulfur-rich volcanic explosions that span time scales of decades to centuries. The steady-state climate response to volcanic forcing includes a large expansion of sea ice, especially in the Southern Hemisphere; a resultant large increase in surface and planetary albedo at high latitudes; and sizable changes in the annually and zonally averaged air temperature.

  6. Aerosol and ozone changes as forcing for climate evolution between 1850 and 2100

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szopa, Sophie; Balkanski, Y.; Schulz, M.; Bekki, S.; Cugnet, D.; Fortems-Cheiney, A.; Turquety, S.; Cozic, A.; Déandreis, C.; Hauglustaine, D.; Idelkadi, A.; Lathière, J.; Lefevre, F.; Marchand, M.; Vuolo, R.; Yan, N.; Dufresne, J.-L.

    2013-05-01

    Global aerosol and ozone distributions and their associated radiative forcings were simulated between 1850 and 2100 following a recent historical emission dataset and under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) for the future. These simulations were used in an Earth System Model to account for the changes in both radiatively and chemically active compounds, when simulating the climate evolution. The past negative stratospheric ozone trends result in a negative climate forcing culminating at -0.15 W m-2 in the 1990s. In the meantime, the tropospheric ozone burden increase generates a positive climate forcing peaking at 0.41 W m-2. The future evolution of ozone strongly depends on the RCP scenario considered. In RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, the evolution of both stratospheric and tropospheric ozone generate relatively weak radiative forcing changes until 2060-2070 followed by a relative 30 % decrease in radiative forcing by 2100. In contrast, RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 model projections exhibit strongly different ozone radiative forcing trajectories. In the RCP2.6 scenario, both effects (stratospheric ozone, a negative forcing, and tropospheric ozone, a positive forcing) decline towards 1950s values while they both get stronger in the RCP8.5 scenario. Over the twentieth century, the evolution of the total aerosol burden is characterized by a strong increase after World War II until the middle of the 1980s followed by a stabilization during the last decade due to the strong decrease in sulfates in OECD countries since the 1970s. The cooling effects reach their maximal values in 1980, with -0.34 and -0.28 W m-2 respectively for direct and indirect total radiative forcings. According to the RCP scenarios, the aerosol content, after peaking around 2010, is projected to decline strongly and monotonically during the twenty-first century for the RCP8.5, 4.5 and 2.6 scenarios. While for RCP6.0 the decline occurs later, after peaking around 2050. As a consequence the relative

  7. The Impact of humidity above stratiform clouds on indirect aerosol climate forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Ackerman, A S; Kirkpatrick, M P; Stevens, D E; Toon, O B

    2004-12-20

    Some of the global warming effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases is offset by increased solar reflection from clouds with smaller droplets that form on increased numbers of cloud condensation nuclei in polluted air. The global magnitude of the resulting indirect aerosol climate forcing is estimated to be comparable (and opposed) to the anthropogenic carbon dioxide forcing, but estimates are highly uncertain because of complexities in characterizing the physical process that determine global aerosol and cloud populations and their interactions. Beyond reflecting sunlight more effectively, smaller droplets are less efficient at producing precipitation, and decreased precipitation is expected to result in increased cloud water and cloud cover, further increasing the indirect forcing. Yet polluted marine boundary-layer clouds are not generally observed to hold more water. Here we use model simulations of stratocumulus clouds to show that suppression of precipitation from increased droplet concentrations leads to increased cloud water only when sufficient precipitation reaches the surface, a condition favored when the overlying air is moist. Otherwise, aerosol induced suppression of precipitation enhances entrainment of overlying dry air, thereby reducing cloud water and diminishing the indirect climate forcing.

  8. Nonlinear effects of anthropogenic aerosol and urban land surface forcing on spring climate in eastern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Jiechun; Xu, Haiming; Zhang, Leying

    2016-05-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols and urban land cover change induce opposite thermal effects on the atmosphere near surface as well as in the troposphere. One can think of these anthropogenic effects as composed of two parts: the individual effect due to an individual anthropogenic forcing and the nonlinear effects resulting from the coexistence of two forcing factors. In this study, we explored the role of such nonlinear effects in affecting East Asian climate, as well as individual forcing effects, using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 coupled with the Community Land Model version 4. Atmospheric responses were simulated by including anthropogenic aerosol emission only, urban cover only, or the combination of the two, over eastern China. Results showed that nonlinear responses were different from any effects by an individual forcing or the linear combination of individual responses. The nonlinear interaction could generate cold horizontal temperature advection to cool the troposphere, which induced anomalous subsidence along the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). This anomalous vertical motion, together with a weakened low-level southwesterly, favored below-normal (above-normal) rainfall over the YRV (southern China), shifting the spring rain belt southward. The resultant diabatic cooling, in turn, amplified the anomalous descent and further decreased tropospheric temperature over the YRV, forming a positive feedback loop to maintain the nonlinear effects. Consequently, the nonlinear effects acted to reduce the climate anomalies from a simple linear combination of two individual effects and played an important role in regional responses to one anthropogenic forcing when the other is prescribed.

  9. Aerosol Climate Interactions in Climate System Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiehl, J. T.

    2002-12-01

    Aerosols are widely recognized as an important process in Earth's climate system. Observations over the past decade have improved our understanding of the physical and chemical properties of aerosols. Recently, field observations have highlighted the pervasiveness of absorbing aerosols in the atmosphere. These aerosols are of particular interest, since they alter the vertical distribution of shortwave radiative heating between the surface and atmosphere. Given this increased knowledge of aerosols from various field programs, interest is focusing on how to integrate this understanding into global climate models. These types of models provide the best tool available to comprehensively study the potential effects of aerosols on Earth's climate system. Results from climate system model simulations that include aerosol effects will be presented to illustrate key aerosol climate interactions. These simulations employ idealized and realistic distributions of absorbing aerosols. The idealized aerosol simulations provide insight into the role of aerosol shortwave absorption on the global hydrologic cycle. The realistic aerosol distributions provide insight into the local response of aerosol forcing in the Indian subcontinent region. Emphasis from these simulations will be on the hydrologic cycle, since water availability is of emerging global environmental concern. This presentation will also consider what more is needed to significantly improve our ability to model aerosol processes in climate system models. Uncertainty in aerosol climate interactions remains a major source of uncertainty in our ability to project future climate change. Focus will be on interactions between aerosols and various physical, chemical and biogeochemical aspects of the Earth system.

  10. Direct shortwave forcing of climate by anthropogenic sulfate aerosol: Sensitivity to particle size, composition, and relative humidity

    SciTech Connect

    Nemesure, S.; Wagener, R.; Schwartz, S.E.

    1996-04-01

    Recent estimates of global or hemispheric average forcing of climate by anthropogenic sulfate aerosol due to scattering of shortwave radiation are uncertain by more than a factor of 2. This paper examines the sensitivity of forcing to these microphysical properties for the purposes of obtaining a better understanding of the properties required to reduce the uncertainty in the forcing.

  11. Constraining Carbonaceous Aerosol Climate Forcing by Bridging Laboratory, Field and Modeling Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dubey, M. K.; Aiken, A. C.; Liu, S.; Saleh, R.; Cappa, C. D.; Williams, L. R.; Donahue, N. M.; Gorkowski, K.; Ng, N. L.; Mazzoleni, C.; China, S.; Sharma, N.; Yokelson, R. J.; Allan, J. D.; Liu, D.

    2014-12-01

    Biomass and fossil fuel combustion emits black (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) aerosols that absorb sunlight to warm climate and organic carbon (OC) aerosols that scatter sunlight to cool climate. The net forcing depends strongly on the composition, mixing state and transformations of these carbonaceous aerosols. Complexities from large variability of fuel types, combustion conditions and aging processes have confounded their treatment in models. We analyse recent laboratory and field measurements to uncover fundamental mechanism that control the chemical, optical and microphysical properties of carbonaceous aerosols that are elaborated below: Wavelength dependence of absorption and the single scattering albedo (ω) of fresh biomass burning aerosols produced from many fuels during FLAME-4 was analysed to determine the factors that control the variability in ω. Results show that ω varies strongly with fire-integrated modified combustion efficiency (MCEFI)—higher MCEFI results in lower ω values and greater spectral dependence of ω (Liu et al GRL 2014). A parameterization of ω as a function of MCEFI for fresh BB aerosols is derived from the laboratory data and is evaluated by field data, including BBOP. Our laboratory studies also demonstrate that BrC production correlates with BC indicating that that they are produced by a common mechanism that is driven by MCEFI (Saleh et al NGeo 2014). We show that BrC absorption is concentrated in the extremely low volatility component that favours long-range transport. We observe substantial absorption enhancement for internally mixed BC from diesel and wood combustion near London during ClearFlo. While the absorption enhancement is due to BC particles coated by co-emitted OC in urban regions, it increases with photochemical age in rural areas and is simulated by core-shell models. We measure BrC absorption that is concentrated in the extremely low volatility components and attribute it to wood burning. Our results support

  12. How skillfully can we simulate drivers of aerosol direct climate forcing at the regional scale?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crippa, P.; Sullivan, R. C.; Thota, A.; Pryor, S. C.

    2015-10-01

    Assessing the ability of global and regional models to describe aerosol optical properties is essential to reducing uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing in the contemporary climate and to improving confidence in future projections. Here we evaluate the skill of high-resolution simulations conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with coupled chemistry (WRF-Chem) in capturing spatio-temporal variability of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Ångström exponent (AE) by comparison with ground- and space- based remotely sensed observations. WRF-Chem is run over eastern North America at a resolution of 12 km for a representative year (2008). A small systematic positive bias in simulated AOD relative to observations is found (annual MFB = 0.17 and 0.50 when comparing with MODIS and AERONET respectively), whereas the spatial variability is well captured during most months. The spatial correlation of AOD shows a clear seasonal cycle with highest correlation during summer months (r = 0.5-0.7) when the aerosol loading is large and more observations are available. AE is retrieved with higher uncertainty from the remote sensing observations. The model is biased towards simulation of coarse mode aerosols (annual MFB for AE = -0.10 relative to MODIS and -0.59 for AERONET), but the spatial correlation for AE with observations is 0.3-0.5 during most months. WRF-Chem also exhibits high skill in identifying areas of extreme and non-extreme aerosol loading, and its ability to correctly simulate the location and relative intensity of an extreme aerosol event (i.e. AOD > 75th percentile) varies between 30 and 70 % during winter and summer months respectively.

  13. On the Feasibility of Studying Shortwave Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Using Dual-Wavelength Aerosol Backscatter Lidar

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Redemann, Jens; Russell, Philip B.; Winker, David M.; McCormick, M. Patrick; Hipskind, R. Stephen (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The current low confidence in the estimates of aerosol-induced perturbations of Earth's radiation balance is caused by the highly non-uniform compositional, spatial and temporal distributions of tropospheric aerosols on a global scale owing to their heterogeneous sources and short lifetimes. Nevertheless, recent studies have shown that the inclusion of aerosol effects in climate model calculations can improve agreement with observed spatial and temporal temperature distributions. In light of the short lifetimes of aerosols, determination of their global distribution with space-borne sensors seems to be a necessary approach. Until recently, satellite measurements of tropospheric aerosols have been approximate and did not provide the full set of information required to determine their radiative effects. With the advent of active aerosol remote sensing from space (e.g., PICASSO-CENA), the applicability fo lidar-derived aerosol 180 deg -backscatter data to radiative flux calculations and hence studies of aerosol effects on climate needs to be investigated.

  14. Importance of tropospheric volcanic aerosol for indirect radiative forcing of climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, A.; Carslaw, K. S.; Mann, G.; Rap, A.; Pringle, K. J.; Spracklen, D. V.; Wilson, M.; Forster, P.

    2013-12-01

    Observations and models have shown that continuously degassing volcanoes have a potentially large effect on the natural background aerosol loading and the radiative state of the atmosphere. We use a global aerosol microphysics model to quantify the impact of these volcanic emissions on the cloud albedo radiative forcing under pre-industrial (PI) and present-day (PD) conditions. We find that volcanic degassing increases global annual mean cloud droplet number concentrations by 40% under PI conditions, but by only 10% under PD conditions. Consequently, volcanic degassing causes a global annual mean cloud albedo effect of -1.06 W m-2 in the PI era but only -0.56 W m-2 in the PD era. This non-equal effect is explained partly by the lower background aerosol concentrations in the PI era, but also because more aerosol particles are produced per unit of volcanic sulphur emission in the PI atmosphere. The higher sensitivity of the PI atmosphere to volcanic emissions has an important consequence for the anthropogenic cloud radiative forcing because the large uncertainty in volcanic emissions translates into an uncertainty in the PI baseline cloud radiative state. Assuming a -50/+100% uncertainty range in the volcanic sulphur flux, we estimate the annual mean anthropogenic cloud albedo forcing to lie between -1.16 W m-2 and -0.86 W m-2. Therefore, the volcanically induced uncertainty in the PI baseline cloud radiative state substantially adds to the already large uncertainty in the magnitude of the indirect radiative forcing of climate. Effect of uncertain volcanic sulphur emissions on the annual global mean cloud albedo effect and anthropogenic cloud albedo forcing. The grey and blue bars show the magnitude and the uncertainty range for the volcanic cloud albedo effect for present-day (PD) and pre-industrial (PI), respectively. In the central panel, the top red bar shows the magnitude of the anthropogenic cloud albedo forcing as estimated by IPCC based on a range of

  15. Importance of tropospheric volcanic aerosol for indirect radiative forcing of climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, A.; Carslaw, K. S.; Mann, G. W.; Rap, A.; Pringle, K. J.; Spracklen, D. V.; Wilson, M.; Forster, P. M.

    2012-08-01

    Observations and models have shown that continuously degassing volcanoes have a potentially large effect on the natural background aerosol loading and the radiative state of the atmosphere. We use a global aerosol microphysics model to quantify the impact of these volcanic emissions on the cloud albedo radiative forcing under pre-industrial (PI) and present-day (PD) conditions. We find that volcanic degassing increases global annual mean cloud droplet number concentrations by 40% under PI conditions, but by only 10% under PD conditions. Consequently, volcanic degassing causes a global annual mean cloud albedo effect of -1.06 W m-2 in the PI era but only -0.56 W m-2 in the PD era. This non-equal effect is explained partly by the lower background aerosol concentrations in the PI era, but also because more aerosol particles are produced per unit of volcanic sulphur emission in the PI atmosphere. The higher sensitivity of the PI atmosphere to volcanic emissions has an important consequence for the anthropogenic cloud radiative forcing because the large uncertainty in volcanic emissions translates into an uncertainty in the PI baseline cloud radiative state. Assuming a -50/+100% uncertainty range in the volcanic sulphur flux, we estimate the annual mean anthropogenic cloud albedo forcing to lie between -1.16 W m-2 and -0.86 W m-2. Therefore, the volcanically induced uncertainty in the PI baseline cloud radiative state substantially adds to the already large uncertainty in the magnitude of the indirect radiative forcing of climate.

  16. Importance of tropospheric volcanic aerosol for indirect radiative forcing of climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, A.; Carslaw, K. S.; Mann, G. W.; Rap, A.; Pringle, K. J.; Spracklen, D. V.; Wilson, M.; Forster, P. M.

    2012-03-01

    Observations and models have shown that continuously degassing volcanoes have a potentially large effect on the natural background aerosol loading and the radiative state of the atmosphere. Here, we use a global aerosol microphysics model to quantify the impact of these volcanic emissions on the cloud albedo radiative forcing under pre-industrial (PI) and present-day (PD) conditions. We find that volcanic degassing increases global annual mean cloud droplet number concentrations by 40% under PI conditions, but by only 10% under PD conditions. Consequently, volcanic degassing causes a global annual mean cloud albedo effect of -1.06 W m-2 in the PI era but only -0.56 W m-2 in the PD era. This non-equal effect is explained partly by the lower background aerosol concentrations in the PI era, but also because more aerosol particles are produced per unit of volcanic sulphur emission in the PI atmosphere. The higher sensitivity of the PI atmosphere to volcanic emissions has an important consequence for the anthropogenic cloud radiative forcing because the large uncertainty in volcanic emissions translates into an uncertainty in the PI baseline cloud radiative state. Assuming a -50/+100% uncertainty range in the volcanic sulphur flux, we estimate the annual mean anthropogenic cloud albedo forcing to lie between -1.16 W m-2 and -0.86 W m-2. Therefore, the volcanically induced uncertainty in the PI baseline cloud radiative state substantially adds to the already large uncertainty in the magnitude of the indirect radiative forcing of climate.

  17. Downscaling Aerosols and the Impact of Neglected Subgrid Processes on Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing for a Representative Global Climate Model Grid Spacing

    SciTech Connect

    Gustafson, William I.; Qian, Yun; Fast, Jerome D.

    2011-07-13

    Recent improvements to many global climate models include detailed, prognostic aerosol calculations intended to better reproduce the observed climate. However, the trace gas and aerosol fields are treated at the grid-cell scale with no attempt to account for sub-grid impacts on the aerosol fields. This paper begins to quantify the error introduced by the neglected sub-grid variability for the shortwave aerosol radiative forcing for a representative climate model grid spacing of 75 km. An analysis of the value added in downscaling aerosol fields is also presented to give context to the WRF-Chem simulations used for the sub-grid analysis. We found that 1) the impact of neglected sub-grid variability on the aerosol radiative forcing is strongest in regions of complex topography and complicated flow patterns, and 2) scale-induced differences in emissions contribute strongly to the impact of neglected sub-grid processes on the aerosol radiative forcing. The two of these effects together, when simulated at 75 km vs. 3 km in WRF-Chem, result in an average daytime mean bias of over 30% error in top-of-atmosphere shortwave aerosol radiative forcing for a large percentage of central Mexico during the MILAGRO field campaign.

  18. Aerosol nucleation and its role for clouds and Earth's radiative forcing in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kazil, J.; Stier, P.; Zhang, K.; Quaas, J.; Kinne, S.; O'Donnell, D.; Rast, S.; Esch, M.; Ferrachat, S.; Lohmann, U.; Feichter, J.

    2010-11-01

    Nucleation from the gas phase is an important source of aerosol particles in the Earth's atmosphere, contributing to the number of cloud condensation nuclei, which form cloud droplets. We have implemented in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM a new scheme for neutral and charged nucleation of sulfuric acid and water based on laboratory data, and nucleation of an organic compound and sulfuric acid using a parametrization of cluster activation based on field measurements. We give details of the implementation, compare results with observations, and investigate the role of the individual aerosol nucleation mechanisms for clouds and the Earth's radiative forcing. The results of our simulations are most consistent with observations when neutral and charged nucleation of sulfuric acid proceed throughout the troposphere and nucleation due to cluster activation is limited to the forested boundary layer. The globally averaged annual mean contributions of the individual nucleation processes to total absorbed solar short-wave radiation via the direct, semi-direct, indirect cloud-albedo and cloud-lifetime effects in our simulations are -1.15 W/m2 for charged H2SO4/H2O nucleation, -0.235 W/m2 for cluster activation, and -0.05 W/m2 for neutral H2SO4/H2O nucleation. The overall effect of nucleation is -2.55 W/m2, which exceeds the sum of the individual terms due to feedbacks and interactions in the model. Aerosol nucleation contributes over the oceans with -2.18 W/m2 to total absorbed solar short-wave radiation, compared to -0.37 W/m2 over land. We explain the higher effect of aerosol nucleation on Earth's radiative forcing over the oceans with the larger area covered by ocean clouds, due to the larger contrast in albedo between clouds and the ocean surface compared to continents, and the larger susceptibility of pristine clouds owing to the saturation of effects. The large effect of charged nucleation in our simulations is not in contradiction with small effects seen in local

  19. Future Projections of Aerosol Optical Depth, Radiative Forcing, and Climate Response Due to Declining Aerosol Emissions in the Representative Concentration Pathways

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westervelt, D. M.; Mauzerall, D. L.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.

    2014-12-01

    It is widely expected that global emissions of atmospheric aerosols and their precursors will decrease strongly throughout the remainder of the 21st century, due to emission reduction policies enacted based on human health concerns. However, the resulting decrease in atmospheric aerosol burden will have unintended climate consequences. Since aerosols generally exert a net cooling influence on the climate, their removal will lead to an unmasking of global warming as well as other changes to the climate system. Aerosol and precursor global emissions decrease by as much as 80% by the year 2100, according to projections in four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. We use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 3 (GFDL CM3) to simulate future climate over the 21st century with and without aerosol emission changes projected by the RCPs in order to isolate the radiative forcing and climate response due to the aerosol reductions. We find that up to 1 W m-2 of radiative forcing may be unmasked globally by 2100 due to reductions in aerosol and precursor emissions, leading to average global temperature increases up to 1 K and global precipitation rate increases up to 0.09 mm d-1 (3%). Regionally and locally, climate impacts are much larger, as RCP8.5 projects a 2.1 K warming over China, Japan, and Korea due to reduced aerosol emissions. Our results highlight the importance of crafting emissions control policies with both climate and air pollution benefits in mind. The expected unmasking of additional global warming from aerosol reductions highlights the importance of robust greenhouse gas mitigation policies and may require more aggressive policies than anticipated.

  20. Direct Radiative Forcing and Regional Climatic Effects of Anthropogenic Aerosols Over East Asia: A Regional Coupled Climate-Chemistry/Aerosol Model Study

    SciTech Connect

    Giorgi, Filippo; Bi, Xunqiang; Qian, Yun )

    2002-09-01

    We present a series of regional climate model simulations aimed at assessing the radiative forcing and surface climatic effects of anthropogenic sulfate and fossil fuel soot over east Asia. The simulations are carried out with a coupled regional climate-chemistry/aerosol model for the 5-year period of 1993-1997 using published estimates of sulfur emissions for the period. Anthropogenic sulfate induces a negative radiative forcing spatially varying from -1 to -8 W/m2 in the winter to -1 to -15 W/m2 in the summer, with maxima over the Sichan Basin of southwest China and over some areas of east and northeast China. This forcing induces a surface cooling in the range of -0.1 to -0.7 K. Fossil fuel soot exerts a positive atmospheric radiative forcing of 0.5 to 2 W/m2 and enhances the surface cooling by a few tenths of K due to increased surface shielding from solar radiation. Doubling of sulfur emissions induces a substantial increase in radiative forcing (up to -7 to -8 W/m2) and associated surface cooling. With doubled sulfur emissions, the surface cooling exceeds -1 K and is statistically significant at the 90% confidence level over various areas of China. The aerosol forcing and surface cooling tend to inhibit precipitation over the region, although this effect is relatively small in the simulations. Some features of the simulated aerosol-induced cooling are consistent with temperature trends observed in recent decades over different regions of China.

  1. Timing, global aerosol forcing, and climate impact of volcanic eruptions during the Common Era

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sigl, Michael; McConnell, Joseph R.; Winstrup, Mai; Welten, Kees C.; Plunkett, Gill; Ludlow, Francis; Toohey, Matthew; Büntgen, Ulf; Caffee, Marc; Kipfstuhl, Sepp; Kostick, Conor; Krüger, Kirstin; Maselli, Olivia J.; Mulvaney, Robert; Woodruff, Thomas E.

    2015-04-01

    Early documentary records report of a mysterious dust cloud that was covering Europe for 12 months in 536-37 CE, which was followed by climatic downturn and societal decline globally. Tree rings and other climate proxies have corroborated the occurrence of this event as well as characterized its extent and duration, but failed to trace its origin. By using a multi-disciplinary approach that integrates novel, global-scale age markers with state-of-the-art continuous ice core aerosol measurements, automated objective ice-core layer counting, tephra analyses, and detailed examination of historical archives, we developed an accurate volcanic forcing series from bipolar ice-core arrays back into early Roman times. Our study reconciles human and natural archives - demonstrated by the synchronicity of major volcanic eruption dates to historical documentary records and the now consistent response of tree-ring-reconstructed cooling extremes occurring in the immediate aftermath of large volcanic eruptions throughout the past 2,000 years. These findings have significant implications in multiple research fields including (1) quantification and attribution of climate variations to external solar and volcanic forcing and (2) improvement of reconstructions of climate variations from multi-proxy networks comprising tree-ring and/or ice-core data (e.g., PAGES 2k).

  2. Future Climate Impacts of Direct Radiative Forcing Anthropogenic Aerosols, Tropospheric Ozone, and Long-lived Greenhouse Gases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, Wei-Ting; Liao, Hong; Seinfeld, John H.

    2007-01-01

    Long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the most important driver of climate change over the next century. Aerosols and tropospheric ozone (O3) are expected to induce significant perturbations to the GHG-forced climate. To distinguish the equilibrium climate responses to changes in direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG between present day and year 2100, four 80-year equilibrium climates are simulated using a unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 110. Concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, primary organic (POA) carbon, secondary organic (SOA) carbon, black carbon (BC) aerosols, and tropospheric ozone for present day and year 2100 are obtained a priori by coupled chemistry-aerosol GCM simulations, with emissions of aerosols, ozone, and precursors based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A2. Changing anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG from present day to year 2100 is predicted to perturb the global annual mean radiative forcing by +0.18 (considering aerosol direct effects only), +0.65, and +6.54 W m(sup -2) at the tropopause, and to induce an equilibrium global annual mean surface temperature change of +0.14, +0.32, and +5.31 K, respectively, with the largest temperature response occurring at northern high latitudes. Anthropogenic aerosols, through their direct effect, are predicted to alter the Hadley circulation owing to an increasing interhemispheric temperature gradient, leading to changes in tropical precipitation. When changes in both aerosols and tropospheric ozone are considered, the predicted patterns of change in global circulation and the hydrological cycle are similar to those induced by aerosols alone. GHG-induced climate changes, such as amplified warming over high latitudes, weakened Hadley circulation, and increasing precipitation over the

  3. Reply to Quaas et al.: Can satellites be used to estimate indirect climate forcing by aerosols?

    SciTech Connect

    Penner, J. E.; Zhou, Cheng; Xu, Li; Wang, Minghuai

    2011-11-15

    We welcome the comments by Quaas et al. (1). In our paper (2), we used a model to show that the methods used to estimate indirect aerosol forcing using satellite data, especially those based on relating the slope of present-day (PD) drop number (Nc) to aerosol optical depth (AOD), underestimate the forcing calculated when both PD and preindustrial (PI) data are available.

  4. Aerosol Precursor Emissions, Secondary Aerosol Production, and Climate-Forcing Gas Exchange in the Midwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doskey, P. V.

    2009-12-01

    Aerosol precursors in the Midwest are generated from a myriad of sources including biogenic emissions of terpenes from the Ozarks region, anthropogenic emissions of volatile and semivolatile aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons from the St. Louis airshed, and agricultural emissions of ammonia (NH3), amines, and nitrogen oxides (NOx) from animal husbandry and cropping systems of the Midwest Corn Belt. The deciduous and coniferous forests of the Ozarks region are significant sources of isoprene, monoterpenes, and sesquiterpenes that are sensitive to rising CO2 levels and temperature and generate light-scattering, secondary organic aerosol (SOA). Application of nitrogen fertilizers stimulates emissions of ammonia (NH3), nitric oxide (NO), and nitrous oxide (N2O) from agricultural soils and crops. Nitric acid, generated through photooxidation of NO emissions from fossil fuel combustion in urban air and from soil emissions in agroecosystems, reacts rapidly with NH3 to generate light-scattering, secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA). The atmospheric lifetime of N2O is about 120 years, making the substance a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential of 290 for a time horizon of 20 years relative to CO2. Emissions of CO2, N2O, and SIA precursors from the Midwest Corn Belt and surrounding areas are likely to increase in the near future as pastureland and prairie is converted to grow corn and other biofuel crops to meet the demand for renewable fuels. Several large river systems transport nutrients from fertilized fields of the Midwest agroecosystem to the Gulf of Mexico where plankton growth is accelerated. Microbial decomposition of plankton detritus consumes oxygen and creates a hypoxic zone, which might be a significant source of N2O.The presentation will discuss gaps in our knowledge of the production of climate-forcing species in the Midwestern United States.

  5. A Study of Direct and Cloud-Mediated Radiative Forcing of Climate Due to Aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yu, Shao-Cai

    1999-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has reported that in the southeastern US and eastern China, the general greenhouse warming due to anthropogenic gaseous emissions is dominated by the cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols. To verify this model prediction in eastern China and southeastern US, we analyzed regional patterns of climate changes at 72 stations in eastern China during 1951- 94 (44 years), and at 52 stations in the southeastern US during 1949-94 (46 years) to detect the fingerprint of aerosol radiative forcing. It was found that the mean rates of change of annual mean daily, maximum, minimum temperatures and diurnal temperature range (DTR) in eastern China were 0.8, -0.2, 1.8, and -2.0 C/100 years respectively, while the mean rates of change of annual mean daily, maximum, minimum temperatures and DTR in the southeastern US were -0.2, -0.6, 0.2, and -0.8 C/100 years, respectively. This indicates that the high rate of increase in annual mean minimum temperature in eastern China results in a slightly warming trend of daily temperature, while the high rate of decrease in annual mean maximum temperature and low rate of increase in annual mean minimum temperature lead to the cooling trend of daily temperature in the southeastern US. We found that the warming from the longwave forcing due to both greenhouse gases and aerosols was completely counteracted by the shortwave aerosol forcing in the southeastern US in the past 46 years. A slightly overall warming trend in eastern China is evident; winters have become milder. This finding is explained by hypothesizing that increasing energy usage during the past 44 years has resulted in more coal and biomass burning, thus increasing the emission of absorbing soot and organic aerosols in eastern China. Such emissions, in addition to well-known Asia dust and greenhouse gases, may be responsible for the winter warming trend in eastern China that we have reported here. The sensitivity of aerosol

  6. Simulation of aerosol distributions and radiative forcing for INDOEX: Regional climate impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collins, William D.; Rasch, Phillip J.; Eaton, Brian E.; Fillmore, David W.; Kiehl, Jeffrey T.; Beck, C. Trevor; Zender, Charles S.

    2002-10-01

    The direct radiative forcing by aerosols over the Indian Ocean region is simulated for the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) Intensive Field Phase during Spring 1999. The forcing is calculated for the top-of-atmosphere (TOA), surface, and atmosphere by differencing shortwave fluxes computed with and without aerosols. The calculation includes the effects of sea-salt, sulfate, carbonaceous, and soil-dust aerosols. The aerosol distributions are obtained from a global aerosol simulation including assimilation of satellite retrievals of aerosol optical thickness (AOT). The time-dependent, three-dimensional aerosol distributions are derived with a chemical transport model driven with meteorological analyses for this period. The surface albedos are obtained from a land-surface model forced with an identical meteorological analysis and satellite-derived rainfall and insolation. These calculations are consistent with in situ observations of the surface insolation over the central Indian Ocean and with satellite measurements of the reflected shortwave radiation. The calculations show that the surface insolation under clear skies is reduced by as much as 40 W/m2 over the Indian subcontinent by natural and anthropogenic aerosols. This reduction in insolation is accompanied by an increase in shortwave flux absorbed in the atmosphere by 25 W/m2. The inclusion of clouds in the calculations changes the direct effect by less than 2 W/m2 over the Indian subcontinent, although the reduction is much larger over China. The magnitude of the difference between all-sky and clear-sky forcing is quite sensitive to the three-dimensional spatial relationship between the aerosol and cloud fields, and other estimates of the difference for the INDOEX Intensive Field Phase are as large as 5 W/m2.

  7. Dust shatters like glass: Implications for the climate forcing of mineral dust aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kok, Jasper

    2013-03-01

    Soil-derived mineral dust aerosols impact climate through interactions with clouds, ecosystems, and radiation, which contributes substantially to uncertainties in understanding past and future climate changes. One of the causes of this large uncertainty is that the size distribution of emitted dust aerosols is poorly understood. In fact, a compilation of measurements indicates that regional and global circulation models overestimate the emitted fraction of clay dust aerosols (< 2 μm diameter) by a factor of ~ 2 - 8. I resolve this discrepancy by deriving a simple theoretical expression for the emitted dust size distribution that is in excellent agreement with measurements. This expression is based on the analogy of dust emission with the scale-invariant fragmentation of brittle materials such as glass. Since regional and global circulation models are usually tuned to the shortwave radiative effect of dust, which is dominated by clay aerosols, these findings suggest that models have substantially underestimated the emission of larger silt (> 2 μm diameter) aerosols, which tend to produce a net warming effect. I show that this underestimation of silt aerosol emission has implications for the effect of dust on regional and global climate.

  8. Aerosol Radiative Effects: Expected Variations in Optical Depth Spectra and Climate Forcing, with Implications for Closure Experiment Strategies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Russell, Philip B.; Stowe, L. L.; Hobbs, P. V.; Podolske, James R. (Technical Monitor)

    1995-01-01

    We examine measurement strategies for reducing uncertainties in aerosol direct radiative forcing by focused experiments that combine surface, air, and space measurements. Particularly emphasized are closure experiments, which test the degree of agreement among different measurements and calculations of aerosol properties and radiative effects. By combining results from previous measurements of large-scale smokes, volcanic aerosols, and anthropogenic aerosols with models of aerosol evolution, we estimate the spatial and temporal variability in optical depth spectra to be expected in the Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observational Experiment (TARFOX, planned for summer 1996 off the Eastern U.S. seaboard). In particular, we examine the expected changes in the wavelength dependence of optical depth as particles evolve through nucleation, growth by condensation and coagulation, and removal via sedimentation. We then calculate the expected radiative climate forcing (i.e. change in net radiative flux) for typical expected aerosols and measurement conditions (e.g. solar elevations, surface albedos, radiometer altitudes). These calculations use new expressions for flux and albedo changes, which account not only for aerosol absorption, but also for instantaneous solar elevation angles and the dependence of surface albedo on solar elevation. These factors, which are usually ignored or averaged in calculations of global aerosol effects, can have a strong influence on fluxes measured in closure experiments, and hence must be accounted for in calculations if closure is to be convincingly tested. We compare the expected measurement signal to measurement uncertainties expected for various techniques in various conditions. Thereby we derive recommendations for measurement strategies that combine surface, airborne, and spaceborne measurements.

  9. AEROSOL, CLOUDS, AND CLIMATE CHANGE

    SciTech Connect

    SCHWARTZ, S.E.

    2005-09-01

    Earth's climate is thought to be quite sensitive to changes in radiative fluxes that are quite small in absolute magnitude, a few watts per square meter, and in relation to these fluxes in the natural climate. Atmospheric aerosol particles exert influence on climate directly, by scattering and absorbing radiation, and indirectly by modifying the microphysical properties of clouds and in turn their radiative effects and hydrology. The forcing of climate change by these indirect effects is thought to be quite substantial relative to forcing by incremental concentrations of greenhouse gases, but highly uncertain. Quantification of aerosol indirect forcing by satellite- or ground-based remote sensing has proved quite difficult in view of inherent large variation in the pertinent observables such as cloud optical depth, which is controlled mainly by liquid water path and only secondarily by aerosols. Limited work has shown instances of large magnitude of aerosol indirect forcing, with local instantaneous forcing upwards of 50 W m{sup 66}-2. Ultimately it will be necessary to represent aerosol indirect effects in climate models to accurately identify the anthropogenic forcing at present and over secular time and to assess the influence of this forcing in the context of other forcings of climate change. While the elements of aerosol processes that must be represented in models describing the evolution and properties of aerosol particles that serve as cloud condensation particles are known, many important components of these processes remain to be understood and to be represented in models, and the models evaluated against observation, before such model-based representations can confidently be used to represent aerosol indirect effects in climate models.

  10. Toward a Minimal Representation of Aerosols in Climate Models: Comparative Decomposition of Aerosol Direct, Semidirect, and Indirect Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Ghan, Steven J.; Liu, Xiaohong; Easter, Richard C.; Zaveri, Rahul A.; Rasch, Philip J.; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Eaton, Brian

    2012-10-01

    The authors have decomposed the anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing into direct contributions from each aerosol species to the planetary energy balance through absorption and scattering of solar radiation, indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosol on solar and infrared radiation through droplet and crystal nucleation on aerosol, and semidirect effects through the influence of solar absorption on the distribution of clouds. A three-mode representation of the aerosol in version 5.1 of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5.1) yields global annual mean radiative forcing estimates for each of these forcing mechanisms that are within 0.1 W m–2 of estimates using a more complex seven-mode representation that distinguishes between fresh and aged black carbon and primary organic matter. Simulating fresh black carbon particles separately from internally mixed accumulation mode particles is found to be important only near fossil fuel sources. In addition to the usual large indirect effect on solar radiation, this study finds an unexpectedly large positive longwave indirect effect (because of enhanced cirrus produced by homogenous nucleation of ice crystals on anthropogenic sulfate), small shortwave and longwave semidirect effects, and a small direct effect (because of cancelation and interactions of direct effects of black carbon and sulfate). Differences between the threemode and seven-mode versions are significantly larger (up to 0.2 W m–2) when the hygroscopicity of primary organic matter is decreased from 0.1 to 0 and transfer of the primary carbonaceous aerosol to the accumulation mode in the seven-mode version requires more hygroscopic material coating the primary particles. Radiative forcing by cloudborne anthropogenic black carbon is only 20.07 W m–2.

  11. A global model simulation of present and future nitrate aerosols and their direct radiative forcing of climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hauglustaine, D. A.; Balkanski, Y.; Schulz, M.

    2014-03-01

    The ammonia cycle and nitrate particle formation have been introduced in the LMDz-INCA global model. Both fine nitrate particles formation in the accumulation mode and coarse nitrate forming on existing dust and sea-salt particles are considered. The model simulates distributions of nitrates and related species in agreement with previous studies and observations. The calculated present-day total nitrate direct radiative forcing since the pre-industrial is -0.056 W m-2. This forcing has the same magnitude than the forcing associated with organic carbon particles and represents 18% of the sulfate forcing. Fine particles largely dominate the nitrate forcing representing close to 90% of this value. The model has been used to investigate the future changes in nitrates and direct radiative forcing of climate based on snapshot simulations for the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and for the 2030, 2050 and 2100 time horizons. Due to a decrease in fossil fuel emissions in the future, the concentrations of most of the species involved in the nitrate-ammonium-sulfate system drop by 2100 except for ammonia which originates from agricultural practices and for which emissions significantly increase in the future. Despite the decrease of nitrate surface levels in Europe and Northern America, the global burden of accumulation mode nitrates increases by up to a factor of 2.6 in 2100. This increase in nitrate in the future arises despite decreasing NOx emissions due to increased availability of ammonia to form ammonium nitrate. The total aerosol direct forcing decreases from its present-day value of -0.234 W m-2 to a range of -0.070 to -0.130 W m-2 in 2100 based on the considered scenario. The direct forcing decreases for all aerosols except for nitrates for which the direct negative forcing increases to a range of -0.060 to -0.115 W m-2 in 2100. Including nitrates in the radiative forcing calculations increases the total direct forcing of aerosols by a

  12. Aerosol Absorption and Radiative Forcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stier, Philip; Seinfeld, J. H.; Kinne, Stefan; Boucher, Olivier

    2007-01-01

    We present a comprehensive examination of aerosol absorption with a focus on evaluating the sensitivity of the global distribution of aerosol absorption to key uncertainties in the process representation. For this purpose we extended the comprehensive aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM by effective medium approximations for the calculation of aerosol effective refractive indices, updated black carbon refractive indices, new cloud radiative properties considering the effect of aerosol inclusions, as well as by modules for the calculation of long-wave aerosol radiative properties and instantaneous aerosol forcing. The evaluation of the simulated aerosol absorption optical depth with the AERONET sun-photometer network shows a good agreement in the large scale global patterns. On a regional basis it becomes evident that the update of the BC refractive indices to Bond and Bergstrom (2006) significantly improves the previous underestimation of the aerosol absorption optical depth. In the global annual-mean, absorption acts to reduce the shortwave anthropogenic aerosol top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing clear-sky from -0.79 to -0.53 W m(sup -2) (33%) and all-sky from -0.47 to -0.13W m(sup -2 (72%). Our results confirm that basic assumptions about the BC refractive index play a key role for aerosol absorption and radiative forcing. The effect of the usage of more accurate effective medium approximations is comparably small. We demonstrate that the diversity in the AeroCom land-surface albedo fields contributes to the uncertainty in the simulated anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcings: the usage of an upper versus lower bound of the AeroCom land albedos introduces a global annual-mean TOA forcing range of 0.19W m(sup -2) (36%) clear-sky and of 0.12W m(sup -2) (92%) all-sky. The consideration of black carbon inclusions on cloud radiative properties results in a small global annual-mean all-sky absorption of 0.05W m(sup -2) and a positive TOA forcing perturbation of 0

  13. The relative impacts of greenhouse gas and aerosol climate forcing on mountain glacier melt at the third pole

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilcox, E. M.

    2010-12-01

    The third pole region resides within a hot spot for atmospheric brown clouds owing to the widespread emissions of dust, soot, and organic carbon aerosols in South and East Asia. As much as one-half of the regional climate warming over South Asia in the later 20th and early 21st centuries has been attributed to the direct radiative heating of the troposphere by aerosol solar absorption. The other half is attributed to the global greenhouse gas forcing. While the increase in temperature and infrared back radiation attributable to greenhouse gas warming is expected to accelerate melting of Himalayan glaciers, aerosol radiative forcing, and the climate response to it, contribute a host of additional impacts on mountain glaciers, many of which exacerbate the melting. These impacts include atmospheric warming, increased infrared back radiation, reduced surface insolation, surface albedo modification by soot deposition, and reductions in monsoon precipitation. The contributions of each of these effects upon melting of Himalayan mountain glaciers is explored in a glacier mass model based on energy balance calculations. The surface energy balance from the base to the top of several glaciers is calculated based on remote sensing and in-situ time series of radiative fluxes and precipitation. The model is calibrated against recent in-situ measurements of glacier mass balance and equilibrium altitude where available. Perturbations to the radiative fluxes and precipitation are then imposed on the mass balance calculations based on published estimates of the aerosol radiative forcing magnitudes and observed changes in regional temperature and precipitation over the modern era. In light of the substantial uncertainty surrounding regional forcing values and mountain glacier characteristics, the study emphasizes sensitivity studies comparing the relative responses of glaciers to the components of aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing mentioned above. Of particular interest are: (a) the

  14. Pollution trends over Europe constrain global aerosol forcing as simulated by climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cherian, Ribu; Quaas, Johannes; Salzmann, Marc; Wild, Martin

    2014-03-01

    An increasing trend in surface solar radiation (solar brightening) has been observed over Europe since the 1990s, linked to economic developments and air pollution regulations and their direct as well as cloud-mediated effects on radiation. Here, we find that the all-sky solar brightening trend (1990-2005) over Europe from seven out of eight models (historical simulations in the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) scales well with the regional and global mean effective forcing by anthropogenic aerosols (idealized "present-day" minus "preindustrial" runs). The reason for this relationship is that models that simulate stronger forcing efficiencies and stronger radiative effects by aerosol-cloud interactions show both a stronger aerosol forcing and a stronger solar brightening. The all-sky solar brightening is the observable from measurements (4.06±0.60 W m-2 decade-1), which then allows to infer a global mean total aerosol effective forcing at about -1.30 W m-2 with standard deviation ±0.40 W m-2.

  15. Effect of anthropogenic aerosol forcing on climate change in the North Pacific Ocean during the 20th Century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abe, M.; Watanabe, S.; Kawamiya, M.; Nozawa, T.

    2014-12-01

    Reliable future projection by the climate or Earth system model is crucial for the issue on future climate change. For the reliable future projection, uncertainty of the aerosol effect on the climate change should be reduced, because the uncertainty has been large. Therefore, it is essential to understand the effect of anthropogenic aerosol forcing on climate change in the 20th century. In this study, we have assessed the effect by a comparison between the 20th century historical simulations (20C and piAero) with the aerosol forcing fluctuated realistically over time and fixed in the pre-industrial condition by MIROC-ESM. We focus on the climate change in the North Pacific Ocean (NPO) due to anthropogenic aerosol emitted from China in the late 20th century. In the comparison between the two simulations, there has been little difference in the global mean surface temperature (SAT) from 1851 to 1900. Then the difference appears and reaches to about 0.2 deg. C in 1950's. After 1960, the difference in SAT between the two experiments become large. For SST change in the NPO, small positive trend is found after 1900 in the piAero, but not found in the 20C. Thus, the SST difference in the NPO between the two experiments is significant after 1900. While the positive SST trend in the NPO has been large in the piAero after 1960, SST in the Central NPO shows the negative trend in the 20C. These enlarge SST difference between the two experiments. The negative SST trend in the Central NPO in the 20C is likely to be attributable to an increase of aerosol emission from China. The aerosol increase, which is also found in the NPO, makes solar insolation into the surface decrease mainly through the aerosol indirect effect. This effect decreases SST. Also, the effect is seen in the boreal spring and summer. However, the effect is not found in the piAero. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which is the principal natural variability in the NPO, has been investigated. Linear trend of

  16. Characterization of marine boundary layer aerosol from North Atlantic and European sources: Physical and chemical properties and climate forcing parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dusek, Ulrike

    This thesis focuses on aerosol properties measured in Southwestern Portugal during the second Aerosol Characterization Experiment. Fundamental aerosol physical properties such as particle size distribution and hygroscopic properties are related to possible sources and aerosol transformation processes. From these fundamental properties we derive aerosol properties that are important for aerosol forcing of climate. First, a new method for calculating CCN spectra is proposed in this work and tested using sensitivity studies and comparisons to direct measurements. The measured and calculated CCN spectra differ on average by 30%, which at small supersaturations is similar to the measurement uncertainties. Second, aerosol number to volume ratios (R) are calculated and the fact that values of R are relatively constrained is explained based on observed correlations between size distribution parameters. Third, a simple parameterization of the humidity dependence of the submicron aerosol scattering coefficient has been derived, depending only on a volume weighted average diameter growth factor and the volume mean diameter of the dry size distribution. One set of empirical parameters can be used to parameterize all aerosol types characterized during the ACE-2 measurement period. Aerosol physical properties and climate forcing parameters in the North-East Atlantic Ocean were clearly affected by pollution outbreaks from Europe. The submicron particle volume increased by a factor of 5 in polluted conditions, the light scattering coefficient of dry particles increased on average by a factor of up to 10, CCN concentrations at supersaturations of 0.2% increased by a factor of 3--5. The aerosol fundamental properties vary often strongly with air mass history, but also show short-term variability that often has a characteristic diurnal scale. The number concentration of fine particles below 50nm and the particle hygroscopic growth factors are mostly dominated by diurnal processes

  17. Seasonality of Forcing by Carbonaceous Aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Habib, G.; Bond, T.; Rasch, P. J.; Coleman, D.

    2006-12-01

    Aerosols can influence the energy balance of Earth-Atmosphere system with profound effect on regional climate. Atmospheric processes, such as convection, scavenging, wet and dry deposition, govern the lifetime and location of aerosol; emissions affect its quantity and location. Both affect climate forcing. Here we investigate the effect of seasonality in emissions and atmospheric processes on radiative forcing by carbonaceous aerosols, focusing on aerosol from fossil fuel and biofuel. Because aerosol lifetime is seasonal, ignoring the seasonality of sources such as residential biofuel may introduce a bias in aerosol burden and therefore in predicted climate forcing. We present a global emission inventory of carbonaceous aerosols with seasonality, and simulate atmospheric concentrations using the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). We discuss where and when the seasonality of emissions and atmospheric processes has strong effects on atmospheric burden, lifetime, climate forcing and aerosol optical depth (AOD). Previous work has shown that aerosol forcing is higher in summer than in winter, and has identified the importance of aerosol above cloud in determining black carbon forcing. We show that predicted cloud height is a very important factor in determining normalized radiative forcing (forcing per mass), especially in summer. This can affect the average summer radiative forcing by nearly 50%. Removal by cloud droplets is the dominant atmospheric cleansing mechanism for carbonaceous aerosols. We demonstrate the modeled seasonality of removal processes and compare the importance of scavenging by warm and cold clouds. Both types of clouds contribute significantly to aerosol removal. We estimate uncertainty in direct radiative forcing due to scavenging by tagging the aerosol which has experienced cloud interactions. Finally, seasonal variations offer an opportunity to assess modeled processes when a single process dominates variability. We identify regions where aerosol

  18. Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty

    DOE Data Explorer

    Mccomiskey, Allison

    2008-01-15

    Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF due to measurement uncertainty in the quantities on which it depends: aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, solar geometry, and surface albedo. Direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface as well as sensitivities, the changes in DRF in response to unit changes in individual aerosol or surface properties, are calculated at three locations representing distinct aerosol types and radiative environments. The uncertainty in DRF associated with a given property is computed as the product of the sensitivity and typical measurement uncertainty in the respective aerosol or surface property. Sensitivity and uncertainty values permit estimation of total uncertainty in calculated DRF and identification of properties that most limit accuracy in estimating forcing. Total uncertainties in modeled local diurnally averaged forcing range from 0.2 to 1.3 W m-2 (42 to 20%) depending on location (from tropical to polar sites), solar zenith angle, surface reflectance, aerosol type, and aerosol optical depth. The largest contributor to total uncertainty in DRF is usually single scattering albedo; however decreasing measurement uncertainties for any property would increase accuracy in DRF. Comparison of two radiative transfer models suggests the contribution of modeling error is small compared to the total uncertainty although comparable to uncertainty arising from some individual properties.

  19. Global distribution and climate forcing of marine organic aerosol: 1. Model improvements and evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Meskhidze, N.; Xu, J.; Gantt, Brett; Zhang, Yang; Nenes, Athanasios; Ghan, Steven J.; Liu, Xiaohong; Easter, Richard C.; Zaveri, Rahul A.

    2011-11-23

    -salt provides diverse results with increases and decreases in the concentration of CCN over different parts of the ocean. The sign of the CCN change due to the addition of marine organics to seasalt aerosol is determined by the relative significance of the increase in mean modal diameter due to addition of mass, and the decrease in particle hygroscopicity due to compositional changes in marine aerosol. Based on emerging evidence for increased CCN concentration over biologically active surface ocean areas/periods, our study suggests that treatment of sea spray in global climate models (GCMs) as an internal mixture of marine organic aerosols and sea-salt will likely lead to an underestimation in CCN number concentration.

  20. Climate forcings and feedbacks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James

    1993-01-01

    Global temperature has increased significantly during the past century. Understanding the causes of observed global temperature change is impossible in the absence of adequate monitoring of changes in global climate forcings and radiative feedbacks. Climate forcings are changes imposed on the planet's energy balance, such as change of incoming sunlight or a human-induced change of surface properties due to deforestation. Radiative feedbacks are radiative changes induced by climate change, such as alteration of cloud properties or the extent of sea ice. Monitoring of global climate forcings and feedbacks, if sufficiently precise and long-term, can provide a very strong constraint on interpretation of observed temperature change. Such monitoring is essential to eliminate uncertainties about the relative importance of various climate change mechanisms including tropospheric sulfate aerosols from burning of coal and oil smoke from slash and burn agriculture, changes of solar irradiance changes of several greenhouse gases, and many other mechanisms. The considerable variability of observed temperature, together with evidence that a substantial portion of this variability is unforced indicates that observations of climate forcings and feedbacks must be continued for decades. Since the climate system responds to the time integral of the forcing, a further requirement is that the observations be carried out continuously. However, precise observations of forcings and feedbacks will also be able to provide valuable conclusions on shorter time scales. For example, knowledge of the climate forcing by increasing CFC's relative to the forcing by changing ozone is important to policymakers, as is information on the forcing by CO2 relative to the forcing by sulfate aerosols. It will also be possible to obtain valuable tests of climate models on short time scales, if there is precise monitoring of all forcings and feedbacks during and after events such as a large volcanic eruption

  1. Plan for a research program on aerosol radiative forcing and climate change. Final report, 1 December 1993-17 April 1996

    SciTech Connect

    1996-04-17

    The panel`s main findings are that (1) anthropogenic aerosols reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth`s surface, (2) anthropogenic aerosols provide a negative climate forcing function for large regions, (3) global models suggest that sulfate aerosols produce a direct forcing in the Northern Hemisphere of the same order of magnitude as that from anthropogenic greenhouse gases, but opposite in sign, and (4) there is substantial uncertainty about the magnitude and spatial distribution of the radiative forcing by aerosols.

  2. Efficacy of climate forcings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Ruedy, R.; Nazarenko, L.; Lacis, A.; Schmidt, G. A.; Russell, G.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, M.; Bauer, S.; Bell, N.; Cairns, B.; Canuto, V.; Chandler, M.; Cheng, Y.; Del Genio, A.; Faluvegi, G.; Fleming, E.; Friend, A.; Hall, T.; Jackman, C.; Kelley, M.; Kiang, N.; Koch, D.; Lean, J.; Lerner, J.; Lo, K.; Menon, S.; Miller, R.; Minnis, P.; Novakov, T.; Oinas, V.; Perlwitz, Ja.; Perlwitz, Ju.; Rind, D.; Romanou, A.; Shindell, D.; Stone, P.; Sun, S.; Tausnev, N.; Thresher, D.; Wielicki, B.; Wong, T.; Yao, M.; Zhang, S.

    2005-09-01

    We use a global climate model to compare the effectiveness of many climate forcing agents for producing climate change. We find a substantial range in the "efficacy" of different forcings, where the efficacy is the global temperature response per unit forcing relative to the response to CO2 forcing. Anthropogenic CH4 has efficacy ˜110%, which increases to ˜145% when its indirect effects on stratospheric H2O and tropospheric O3 are included, yielding an effective climate forcing of ˜0.8 W/m2 for the period 1750-2000 and making CH4 the largest anthropogenic climate forcing other than CO2. Black carbon (BC) aerosols from biomass burning have a calculated efficacy ˜58%, while fossil fuel BC has an efficacy ˜78%. Accounting for forcing efficacies and for indirect effects via snow albedo and cloud changes, we find that fossil fuel soot, defined as BC + OC (organic carbon), has a net positive forcing while biomass burning BC + OC has a negative forcing. We show that replacement of the traditional instantaneous and adjusted forcings, Fi and Fa, with an easily computed alternative, Fs, yields a better predictor of climate change, i.e., its efficacies are closer to unity. Fs is inferred from flux and temperature changes in a fixed-ocean model run. There is remarkable congruence in the spatial distribution of climate change, normalized to the same forcing Fs, for most climate forcing agents, suggesting that the global forcing has more relevance to regional climate change than may have been anticipated. Increasing greenhouse gases intensify the Hadley circulation in our model, increasing rainfall in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Eastern United States, and East Asia, while intensifying dry conditions in the subtropics including the Southwest United States, the Mediterranean region, the Middle East, and an expanding Sahel. These features survive in model simulations that use all estimated forcings for the period 1880-2000. Responses to localized forcings, such

  3. Aerosol nucleation and its role for clouds and Earth's radiative forcing in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kazil, J.; Stier, P.; Zhang, K.; Quaas, J.; Kinne, S.; O'Donnell, D.; Rast, S.; Esch, M.; Ferrachat, S.; Lohmann, U.; Feichter, J.

    2010-05-01

    Nucleation from the gas phase is an important source of aerosol particles in the Earth's atmosphere, contributing to the number of cloud condensation nuclei, which form cloud droplets. We have implemented in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM a new scheme for neutral and charged nucleation of sulfuric acid and water based on laboratory data, and nucleation of an organic compound and sulfuric acid using a parametrization of cluster activation based on field measurements. We give details of the implementation, compare results with observations, and investigate the role of the individual aerosol nucleation mechanisms for clouds and the Earth's radiative budget. The results of our simulations are most consistent with observations when neutral and charged nucleation of sulfuric acid proceed throughout the troposphere and nucleation due to cluster activation is limited to the forested boundary layer. The globally averaged annual mean contributions of the individual nucleation processes to total absorbed solar short-wave radiation via the direct, semi-direct, indirect cloud-albedo and cloud-lifetime effects in our simulations are -1.15 W/m2 for charged H2SO4/H2O nucleation, -0.235 W/m2 for cluster activation, and -0.05 W/m2 for neutral H2SO4/H2O nucleation. The overall effect of nucleation is -2.55 W/m2, which exceeds the sum of the individual terms due to feedbacks and interactions in the model. Aerosol nucleation contributes over the oceans with -2.18 W/m2 to total absorbed solar short-wave radiation, compared to -0.37 W/m2 over land. We explain the higher effect of aerosol nucleation on Earth's radiative budget over the oceans with the larger area covered by ocean clouds, due to the larger contrast in albedo between clouds and the ocean surface compared to continents, and the larger susceptibility of pristine clouds owing to the saturation of effects. The large effect of charged nucleation in our simulations is not in contradiction with small effects seen in local

  4. Factors Affecting Aerosol Radiative Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jingxu; Lin, Jintai; Ni, Ruijing

    2016-04-01

    Rapid industrial and economic growth has meant a large amount of aerosols in the atmosphere with strong radiative forcing (RF) upon the climate system. Over parts of the globe, the negative forcing of aerosols has overcompensated for the positive forcing of greenhouse gases. Aerosol RF is determined by emissions and various chemical-transport-radiative processes in the atmosphere, a multi-factor problem whose individual contributors have not been well quantified. In this study, we analyze the major factors affecting RF of secondary inorganic aerosols (SIOAs, including sulfate, nitrate and ammonium), primary organic aerosol (POA), and black carbon (BC). We analyze the RF of aerosols produced by 11 major regions across the globe, including but not limited to East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, North America, and Western Europe. Factors analyzed include population size, per capita gross domestic production (GDP), emission intensity (i.e., emissions per unit GDP), chemical efficiency (i.e., mass per unit emissions) and radiative efficiency (i.e., RF per unit mass). We find that among the 11 regions, East Asia produces the largest emissions and aerosol RF, due to relatively high emission intensity and a tremendous population size. South Asia produce the second largest RF of SIOA and BC and the highest RF of POA, in part due to its highest chemical efficiency among all regions. Although Southeast Asia also has large emissions, its aerosol RF is alleviated by its lowest chemical efficiency. The chemical efficiency and radiative efficiency of BC produced by the Middle East-North Africa are the highest across the regions, whereas its RF is lowered by a small per capita GDP. Both North America and Western Europe have low emission intensity, compensating for the effects on RF of large population sizes and per capita GDP. There has been a momentum to transfer industries to Southeast Asia and South Asia, and such transition is expected to continue in the coming years. The

  5. Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Ramaswamy, V.; Boucher, Olivier; Haigh, J.; Hauglustaine, D.; Haywood, J.; Myhre, G.; Nakajima, Takahito; Shi, Guangyu; Solomon, S.; Betts, Robert E.; Charlson, R.; Chuang, C. C.; Daniel, J. S.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Feichter, J.; Fuglestvedt, J.; Forster, P. M.; Ghan, Steven J.; Jones, A.; Kiehl, J. T.; Koch, D.; Land, C.; Lean, J.; Lohmann, Ulrike; Minschwaner, K.; Penner, Joyce E.; Roberts, D. L.; Rodhe, H.; Roelofs, G.-J.; Rotstayn, Leon D.; Schneider, T. L.; Schumann, U.; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Schwartzkopf, M. D.; Shine, K. P.; Smith, Steven J.; Stevenson, D. S.; Stordal, F.; Tegen, I.; van Dorland, R.; Zhang, Y.; Srinivasan, J.; Joos, Fortunat

    2001-10-01

    Chapter 6 of the IPCC Third Assessment Report Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Sections include: Executive Summary 6.1 Radiative Forcing 6.2 Forcing-Response Relationship 6.3 Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases 6.4 Stratospheric Ozone 6.5 Radiative Forcing By Tropospheric Ozone 6.6 Indirect Forcings due to Chemistry 6.7 The Direct Radiative Forcing of Tropospheric Aerosols 6.8 The Indirect Radiative Forcing of Tropospheric Aerosols 6.9 Stratospheric Aerosols 6.10 Land-use Change (Surface Albedo Effect) 6.11 Solar Forcing of Climate 6.12 Global Warming Potentials hydrocarbons 6.13 Global Mean Radiative Forcings 6.14 The Geographical Distribution of the Radiative Forcings 6.15 Time Evolution of Radiative Forcings Appendix 6.1 Elements of Radiative Forcing Concept References.

  6. A global model simulation of present and future nitrate aerosols and their direct radiative forcing of climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hauglustaine, D. A.; Balkanski, Y.; Schulz, M.

    2014-10-01

    The ammonia cycle and nitrate particle formation are introduced into the LMDz-INCA (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, version 4 - INteraction with Chemistry and Aerosols, version 3) global model. An important aspect of this new model is that both fine nitrate particle formation in the accumulation mode and coarse nitrate forming on existing dust and sea-salt particles are considered. The model simulates distributions of nitrates and related species in agreement with previous studies and observations. The calculated present-day total nitrate direct radiative forcing since the pre-industrial is -0.056 W m-2. This forcing corresponds to 18% of the sulfate forcing. Fine particles largely dominate the nitrate forcing, representing close to 90% of this value. The model has been used to investigate the future changes in nitrates and direct radiative forcing of climate based on snapshot simulations for the four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and for the 2030, 2050, and 2100 time horizons. Due to a decrease in fossil fuel emissions in the future, the concentration of most of the species involved in the nitrate-ammonium-sulfate system drop by 2100 except for ammonia, which originates from agricultural practices and for which emissions significantly increase in the future. Despite the decrease of nitrate surface levels in Europe and North America, the global burden of accumulation mode nitrates increases by up to a factor of 2.6 in 2100. This increase in ammonium nitrate in the future arises despite decreasing NOx emissions due to increased availability of ammonia to form ammonium nitrate. The total aerosol direct forcing decreases from its present-day value of -0.234 W m-2 to a range of -0.070 to -0.130 W m-2 in 2100 based on the considered scenario. The direct forcing decreases for all aerosols except for nitrates, for which the direct negative forcing increases to a range of -0.060 to -0.115 W m-2 in 2100. Including nitrates in the radiative

  7. Overview of the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment/Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing on the Mediterranean Climate (ChArMEx/ADRIMED) summer 2013 campaign

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mallet, M.; Dulac, F.; Formenti, P.; Nabat, P.; Sciare, J.; Roberts, G.; Pelon, J.; Ancellet, G.; Tanré, D.; Parol, F.; di Sarra, A.; Alados, L.; Arndt, J.; Auriol, F.; Blarel, L.; Bourrianne, T.; Brogniez, G.; Chazette, P.; Chevaillier, S.; Claeys, M.; D'Anna, B.; Denjean, C.; Derimian, Y.; Desboeufs, K.; Di Iorio, T.; Doussin, J.-F.; Durand, P.; Féron, A.; Freney, E.; Gaimoz, C.; Goloub, P.; Gómez-Amo, J. L.; Granados-Muñoz, M. J.; Grand, N.; Hamonou, E.; Jankowiak, I.; Jeannot, M.; Léon, J.-F.; Maillé, M.; Mailler, S.; Meloni, D.; Menut, L.; Momboisse, G.; Nicolas, J.; Podvin, J.; Pont, V.; Rea, G.; Renard, J.-B.; Roblou, L.; Schepanski, K.; Schwarzenboeck, A.; Sellegri, K.; Sicard, M.; Solmon, F.; Somot, S.; Torres, B.; Totems, J.; Triquet, S.; Verdier, N.; Verwaerde, C.; Wenger, J.; Zapf, P.

    2015-07-01

    The Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment (ChArMEx; http://charmex.lsce.ipsl.fr) is a collaborative research program federating international activities to investigate Mediterranean regional chemistry-climate interactions. A special observing period (SOP-1a) including intensive airborne measurements was performed in the framework of the Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing on the Mediterranean Climate (ADRIMED) project during the Mediterranean dry season over the western and central Mediterranean basins, with a focus on aerosol-radiation measurements and their modeling. The SOP-1a took place from 11 June to 5 July 2013. Airborne measurements were made by both the ATR-42 and F-20 French research aircraft operated from Sardinia (Italy) and instrumented for in situ and remote-sensing measurements, respectively, and by sounding and drifting balloons, launched in Minorca. The experimental set-up also involved several ground-based measurement sites on islands including two ground-based reference stations in Corsica and Lampedusa and secondary monitoring sites in Minorca and Sicily. Additional measurements including lidar profiling were also performed on alert during aircraft operations at EARLINET/ACTRIS stations at Granada and Barcelona in Spain, and in southern Italy. Remote sensing aerosol products from satellites (MSG/SEVIRI, MODIS) and from the AERONET/PHOTONS network were also used. Dedicated meso-scale and regional modelling experiments were performed in relation to this observational effort. We provide here an overview of the different surface and aircraft observations deployed during the ChArMEx/ADRIMED period and of associated modeling studies together with an analysis of the synoptic conditions that determined the aerosol emission and transport. Meteorological conditions observed during this campaign (moderate temperatures and southern flows) were not favorable to produce high level of atmospheric pollutants nor

  8. Spatially Refined Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing Efficiencies

    EPA Science Inventory

    Global aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF) is an important metric for assessing potential climate impacts of future emissions changes. However, the radiative consequences of emissions perturbations are not readily quantified nor well understood at the level of detail necessary...

  9. Aerosol organic carbon to black carbon ratios: Analysis ofpublished data and implications for climate forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Novakov, T.; Menon, S.; Kirchstetter, T.W.; Koch, D.; Hansen, J.E.

    2005-07-11

    Measurements of organic carbon (OC) and black carbon (BC)concentrations over a variety of locations worldwide, have been analyzed to infer the spatial distributions of the ratios of OC to BC. Since these ratios determine the relative amounts of scattering and absorption, they are often used to estimate the radiative forcing due to aerosols. An artifact in the protocol for filter measurements of OC has led to widespread overestimates of the ratio of OC to BC in atmospheric aerosols. We developed a criterion to correct for this artifact and analyze corrected OC to BC ratios. The OC to BC ratios, ranging from 1.3to 2.4, appear relatively constant and are generally unaffected by seasonality, sources or technology changes, at the locations considered here. The ratios compare well with emission inventories over Europe and China but are a factor of two lower in other regions. The reduced estimate for OC/BC in aerosols strengthens the argument that reduction of soot emissions maybe a useful approach to slow global warming.

  10. Vertical microphysical profiles of convective clouds as a tool for obtaining aerosol cloud-mediated climate forcings

    SciTech Connect

    Rosenfeld, Daniel

    2015-12-23

    Quantifying the aerosol/cloud-mediated radiative effect at a global scale requires simultaneous satellite retrievals of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations and cloud base updraft velocities (Wb). Hitherto, the inability to do so has been a major cause of high uncertainty regarding anthropogenic aerosol/cloud-mediated radiative forcing. This can be addressed by the emerging capability of estimating CCN and Wb of boundary layer convective clouds from an operational polar orbiting weather satellite. Our methodology uses such clouds as an effective analog for CCN chambers. The cloud base supersaturation (S) is determined by Wb and the satellite-retrieved cloud base drop concentrations (Ndb), which is the same as CCN(S). Developing and validating this methodology was possible thanks to the ASR/ARM measurements of CCN and vertical updraft profiles. Validation against ground-based CCN instruments at the ARM sites in Oklahoma, Manaus, and onboard a ship in the northeast Pacific showed a retrieval accuracy of ±25% to ±30% for individual satellite overpasses. The methodology is presently limited to boundary layer not raining convective clouds of at least 1 km depth that are not obscured by upper layer clouds, including semitransparent cirrus. The limitation for small solar backscattering angles of <25º restricts the satellite coverage to ~25% of the world area in a single day. This methodology will likely allow overcoming the challenge of quantifying the aerosol indirect effect and facilitate a substantial reduction of the uncertainty in anthropogenic climate forcing.

  11. Establishing Global Source-Receptor Relationships for Carbonaceous Aerosol to Characterize Sensitivity of its Climate Forcing to Emission Uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, H.; Rasch, P. J.; Easter, R. C.; Singh, B.; Qian, Y.; Ma, P.; Zhang, R.

    2013-12-01

    Carbonaceous aerosol (CA) has been identified as an important but very uncertain forcing agent in the Earth's climate system. It has cascading radiative, microphysical and dynamical effects across the different scales in the atmosphere. Light-absorbing CA (e.g., black carbon (BC) and brown carbon) deposited on snow, sea ice and glaciers can accelerate their melting, which can induce more profound impact through positive feedback mechanisms, having important implications for climate change and fresh water availability at the global and regional scale. Many factors can affect the amount and impacts of CA in a specific region such as the Arctic, among which the global distribution of emissions is of primary importance. There are many uncertainties in global CA emissions, which are changing over time. To better understand the response of climate to these uncertainties and to potential future CA emission changes, it is useful to characterize the global source-receptor relationships and attribute CA loading and radiative forcing to various regional and sectoral CA sources. Observational evidence has clearly demonstrated the occurrence of intercontinental long-range transport of aerosols and to some extent the characteristic transport pathways. However, the observational approach alone cannot provide quantitative information on global source-receptor relationships. We have recently improved the treatment of aerosol transport and wet removal processes in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) and introduced a brute-force aerosol source tagging technique in which aerosol particles emitted from many independent source regions and sectors are tagged and explicitly tracked. We run the CAM5 model in an 'offline' mode (i.e., driven by reanalysis data) so the transport processes are less likely to be subject to model biases in meteorology and circulation patterns. This modeling tool is used to quantify the characteristics (e.g., burden, surface deposition rate, lifetime

  12. Sensitivity of dust emissions to aerosol feedback and the impact of dust loading on climate forcing with varied resolutions using FIM-Chem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Li; Grell, Georg; Henze, Daven; Mckeen, Stuart; Sun, Shan; Li, Haiqin

    2016-04-01

    Meteorological conditions directly impact aerosol loading, especially dust emissions. Variations in dust emissions on the other hand, will also impact meteorology and climate through direct and indirect aerosol forcing. To study these impacts in more detail we use the global Flow-following finite-volume Icosahedra Model (FIM, http://fim.noaa.gov/), a new global weather prediction model currently under development in the Global Systems Division of NOAA/ESRL, as it is coupled online with the aerosol modules from the Goddard Gobal Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model (FIM-Chem). FIM-Chem includes direct and semi direct feedback, and uses the dust schemes of GOCART and the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA). FIM-Chem is able to investigate the contribution of climate feedbacks to simulated hyperspectral data by considering a range of simulations with different dust emissions and different levels of aerosol feedbacks enabled at four different spatial resolutions. The emitted dust flux and total emissions are highly depending on the wind, soil moisture and model resolution. We compare the dust emissions by including and excluding the aerosol radiative feedback in the simulations to quantify the sensitivity of dust emissions to aerosol feedback. The results show that all aerosol-induced dust emissions increase about 10% globally, which is mainly dominated by the contributions of anthropogenic black carbon (EC) aerosol. While the dust-induced percentage changes of dust emissions are about -5.5%, that indicates reduction effect globally. Also, the simulations based on different resolutions of 240x240 km, 120x120 km, 60x60 km and 30x30 km are performed to test the impacts of model resolution on total dust emissions. By comparing the dust emission sensitivity to aerosol feedback and model resolution, we can estimate the uncertainty of model resolution versus aerosol feedback. We also conduct FIM-Chem simulations to investigate the sensitivity of dust

  13. Assessment of aerosol radiative forcing in the North-Eastern region of India using radiative transfer model and regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pathak, Binita; Bhuyan, Pradip

    Regional characterization of atmospheric aerosols is essential from the viewpoint of reducing the current uncertainties in the understanding of their climate implications at regional and global scale. The north-eastern part of India owing to its unique topography and geography located at sub Himalayan range and the middle of Indian Subcontinent and South-East Asian region as well as with scattered local hilly regions persevere complex aerosol environment. Collocated measurements of parameters corresponding to aerosol optical and physical properties i.e., spectral aerosol optical depths (AODs) by a 10 channel Multi-Wavelength solar Radiometer (MWR), near surface aerosol mass concentration of composite aerosols by a Quartz Crystal Microbalance Impactor (QCM) and Black Carbon (BC) mass concentration by an Aethalometer have been used in the Optical Properties of Aerosols and Clouds (OPAC) model to estimate the optical properties of composite aerosols over Dibrugarh (27.3ºN, 94.6ºE, 111 m amsl) for the short wavelength range. The OPAC outputs are then used as inputs to the Rdiative Transfer model ‘Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (SBDART)’, developed by the University of California, Santa Barbara, to derive the shortwave aerosol radiative properties. The aerosol optical depth shows maximum value in pre-monsoon season and minimum in post-monsoon season. Columnar aerosols are bimodal in nature with dominant contribution from fine mode aerosols. Unlike columnar aerosols surface aerosol concentration including black carbon shows maximum value in winter and minimum in monsoon season. The aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) estimated for the period pre-monsoon 2008-winter 2013 shows maximum value in the pre-monsoon season at the surface as well as in the atmosphere corresponding to highest columnar aerosol loading. The surface forcing varies between -37 Wm-2 in Pre-monsoon 2009 and 2011 to -13 Wm-2 in Post-monsoon 2008 while forcing in the Atmosphere

  14. Overview of the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment/Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing on the Mediterranean Climate (ChArMEx/ADRIMED) summer 2013 campaign

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mallet, M.; Dulac, F.; Formenti, P.; Nabat, P.; Sciare, J.; Roberts, G.; Pelon, J.; Ancellet, G.; Tanré, D.; Parol, F.; Denjean, C.; Brogniez, G.; di Sarra, A.; Alados-Arboledas, L.; Arndt, J.; Auriol, F.; Blarel, L.; Bourrianne, T.; Chazette, P.; Chevaillier, S.; Claeys, M.; D'Anna, B.; Derimian, Y.; Desboeufs, K.; Di Iorio, T.; Doussin, J.-F.; Durand, P.; Féron, A.; Freney, E.; Gaimoz, C.; Goloub, P.; Gómez-Amo, J. L.; Granados-Muñoz, M. J.; Grand, N.; Hamonou, E.; Jankowiak, I.; Jeannot, M.; Léon, J.-F.; Maillé, M.; Mailler, S.; Meloni, D.; Menut, L.; Momboisse, G.; Nicolas, J.; Podvin, T.; Pont, V.; Rea, G.; Renard, J.-B.; Roblou, L.; Schepanski, K.; Schwarzenboeck, A.; Sellegri, K.; Sicard, M.; Solmon, F.; Somot, S.; Torres, B.; Totems, J.; Triquet, S.; Verdier, N.; Verwaerde, C.; Waquet, F.; Wenger, J.; Zapf, P.

    2016-01-01

    MBL. In terms of shortwave (SW) direct forcing, in situ surface and aircraft observations have been merged and used as inputs in 1-D radiative transfer codes for calculating the aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF). Results show significant surface SW instantaneous forcing (up to -90 W m-2 at noon). Aircraft observations provide also original estimates of the vertical structure of SW and LW radiative heating revealing significant instantaneous values of about 5° K per day in the solar spectrum (for a solar angle of 30°) within the dust layer. Associated 3-D modeling studies from regional climate (RCM) and chemistry transport (CTM) models indicate a relatively good agreement for simulated AOD compared with observations from the AERONET/PHOTONS network and satellite data, especially for long-range dust transport. Calculations of the 3-D SW (clear-sky) surface DRF indicate an average of about -10 to -20 W m-2 (for the whole period) over the Mediterranean Sea together with maxima (-50 W m-2) over northern Africa. The top of the atmosphere (TOA) DRF is shown to be highly variable within the domain, due to moderate absorbing properties of dust and changes in the surface albedo. Indeed, 3-D simulations indicate negative forcing over the Mediterranean Sea and Europe and positive forcing over northern Africa. Finally, a multi-year simulation, performed for the 2003 to 2009 period and including an ocean-atmosphere (O-A) coupling, underlines the impact of the aerosol direct radiative forcing on the sea surface temperature, O-A fluxes and the hydrological cycle over the Mediterranean.

  15. Longwave radiative forcing by aqueous aerosols

    SciTech Connect

    Gaffney, J.S.; Marley, N.A.

    1995-01-01

    Recently, a great deal of interest has been focused on the role of aerosols in climatic change because of their potential cooling impacts due to light scattering. Recent advances in infrared spectroscopy using cylindrical internal reflectance have allowed the longwave absorption of dissolved aerosol species and the associated liquid water to be accurately determined and evaluated. Experimental measurements using these techniques have shown that dissolved sulfate, nitrate, and numerous other aerosol species will act to cause greenhouse effects. Preliminary calculations indicate that the longwave climate forcing (i.e., heating) for sulfate aerosol will be comparable in magnitude to the cooling effect produced by light scattering. However, more detailed modeling will clearly be needed to address the impact of the longwave forcing due to aerosols as a function of atmospheric height and composition. Their work has shown that aerosol composition will be important in determining longwave forcing, while shortwave forcing will be more related to the physical size of the aerosol droplets. On the basis of these studies, it is increasingly apparent that aerosols, fogs, and clouds play a key role in determining the radiative balance of the atmosphere and in controlling regional and global climates.

  16. Overview of the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment/Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing on the Mediterranean Climate (ChArMEx/ADRIMED) summer 2013 campaign

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mallet, M.; Dulac, F.; Formenti, P.; Nabat, P.; Sciare, J.; Roberts, G.; Pelon, J.; Ancellet, G.; Tanré, D.; Parol, F.; Denjean, C.; Brogniez, G.; di Sarra, A.; Alados-Arboledas, L.; Arndt, J.; Auriol, F.; Blarel, L.; Bourrianne, T.; Chazette, P.; Chevaillier, S.; Claeys, M.; D'Anna, B.; Derimian, Y.; Desboeufs, K.; Di Iorio, T.; Doussin, J.-F.; Durand, P.; Féron, A.; Freney, E.; Gaimoz, C.; Goloub, P.; Gómez-Amo, J. L.; Granados-Muñoz, M. J.; Grand, N.; Hamonou, E.; Jankowiak, I.; Jeannot, M.; Léon, J.-F.; Maillé, M.; Mailler, S.; Meloni, D.; Menut, L.; Momboisse, G.; Nicolas, J.; Podvin, T.; Pont, V.; Rea, G.; Renard, J.-B.; Roblou, L.; Schepanski, K.; Schwarzenboeck, A.; Sellegri, K.; Sicard, M.; Solmon, F.; Somot, S.; Torres, B.; Totems, J.; Triquet, S.; Verdier, N.; Verwaerde, C.; Waquet, F.; Wenger, J.; Zapf, P.

    2016-01-01

    The Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment (ChArMEx; http://charmex.lsce.ipsl.fr) is a collaborative research program federating international activities to investigate Mediterranean regional chemistry-climate interactions. A special observing period (SOP-1a) including intensive airborne measurements was performed in the framework of the Aerosol Direct Radiative Impact on the regional climate in the MEDiterranean region (ADRIMED) project during the Mediterranean dry season over the western and central Mediterranean basins, with a focus on aerosol-radiation measurements and their modeling. The SOP-1a took place from 11 June to 5 July 2013. Airborne measurements were made by both the ATR-42 and F-20 French research aircraft operated from Sardinia (Italy) and instrumented for in situ and remote-sensing measurements, respectively, and by sounding and drifting balloons, launched in Minorca. The experimental setup also involved several ground-based measurement sites on islands including two ground-based reference stations in Corsica and Lampedusa and secondary monitoring sites in Minorca and Sicily. Additional measurements including lidar profiling were also performed on alert during aircraft operations at EARLINET/ACTRIS stations at Granada and Barcelona in Spain, and in southern Italy. Remote-sensing aerosol products from satellites (MSG/SEVIRI, MODIS) and from the AERONET/PHOTONS network were also used. Dedicated meso-scale and regional modeling experiments were performed in relation to this observational effort. We provide here an overview of the different surface and aircraft observations deployed during the ChArMEx/ADRIMED period and of associated modeling studies together with an analysis of the synoptic conditions that determined the aerosol emission and transport. Meteorological conditions observed during this campaign (moderate temperatures and southern flows) were not favorable to producing high

  17. Overview of the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment/Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing on the Mediterranean Climate (ChArMEx/ADRIMED) summer 2013 campaign

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mallet, M.; Dulac, F.; Formenti, P.; Nabat, P.; Sciare, J.; Roberts, G.; Pelon, J.; Ancellet, G.; Tanré, D.; Parol, F.; di Sarra, A.; Alados, L.; Arndt, J.; Auriol, F.; Blarel, L.; Bourrianne, T.; Brogniez, G.; Chazette, P.; Chevaillier, S.; Claeys, M.; D'Anna, B.; Denjean, C.; Derimian, Y.; Desboeufs, K.; Di Iorio, T.; Doussin, J.-F.; Durand, P.; Féron, A.; Freney, E.; Gaimoz, C.; Goloub, P.; Gómez-Amo, J. L.; Granados-Muñoz, M. J.; Grand, N.; Hamonou, E.; Jankowiak, I.; Jeannot, M.; Léon, J.-F.; Maillé, M.; Mailler, S.; Meloni, D.; Menut, L.; Momboisse, G.; Nicolas, J.; Podvin, J.; Pont, V.; Rea, G.; Renard, J.-B.; Roblou, L.; Schepanski, K.; Schwarzenboeck, A.; Sellegri, K.; Sicard, M.; Solmon, F.; Somot, S.; Torres, B.; Totems, J.; Triquet, S.; Verdier, N.; Verwaerde, C.; Wenger, J.; Zapf, P.

    2015-07-01

    The Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment (ChArMEx; http://charmex.lsce.ipsl.fr) is a collaborative research program federating international activities to investigate Mediterranean regional chemistry-climate interactions. A special observing period (SOP-1a) including intensive airborne measurements was performed in the framework of the Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing on the Mediterranean Climate (ADRIMED) project during the Mediterranean dry season over the western and central Mediterranean basins, with a focus on aerosol-radiation measurements and their modeling. The SOP-1a took place from 11 June to 5 July 2013. Airborne measurements were made by both the ATR-42 and F-20 French research aircraft operated from Sardinia (Italy) and instrumented for in situ and remote-sensing measurements, respectively, and by sounding and drifting balloons, launched in Minorca. The experimental set-up also involved several ground-based measurement sites on islands including two ground-based reference stations in Corsica and Lampedusa and secondary monitoring sites in Minorca and Sicily. Additional measurements including lidar profiling were also performed on alert during aircraft operations at EARLINET/ACTRIS stations at Granada and Barcelona in Spain, and in southern Italy. Remote sensing aerosol products from satellites (MSG/SEVIRI, MODIS) and from the AERONET/PHOTONS network were also used. Dedicated meso-scale and regional modelling experiments were performed in relation to this observational effort. We provide here an overview of the different surface and aircraft observations deployed during the ChArMEx/ADRIMED period and of associated modeling studies together with an analysis of the synoptic conditions that determined the aerosol emission and transport. Meteorological conditions observed during this campaign (moderate temperatures and southern flows) were not favorable to produce high level of atmospheric pollutants nor

  18. Seasonality of meningitis in Africa and climate forcing: aerosols stand out

    PubMed Central

    Agier, L.; Deroubaix, A.; Martiny, N.; Yaka, P.; Djibo, A.; Broutin, H.

    2013-01-01

    Bacterial meningitis is an ongoing threat for the population of the African Meningitis Belt, a region characterized by the highest incidence rates worldwide. The determinants of the disease dynamics are still poorly understood; nevertheless, it is often advocated that climate and mineral dust have a large impact. Over the last decade, several studies have investigated this relationship at a large scale. In this analysis, we scaled down to the district-level weekly scale (which is used for in-year response to emerging epidemics), and used wavelet and phase analysis methods to define and compare the time-varying periodicities of meningitis, climate and dust in Niger. We mostly focused on detecting time-lags between the signals that were consistent across districts. Results highlighted the special case of dust in comparison to wind, humidity or temperature: a strong similarity between districts is noticed in the evolution of the time-lags between the seasonal component of dust and meningitis. This result, together with the assumption of dust damaging the pharyngeal mucosa and easing bacterial invasion, reinforces our confidence in dust forcing on meningitis seasonality. Dust data should now be integrated in epidemiological and forecasting models to make them more realistic and usable in a public health perspective. PMID:23221989

  19. Thermal Infrared Radiative Forcing By Atmospheric Aerosol

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adhikari, Narayan

    The work mainly focuses on the study of thermal infrared (IR) properties of atmospheric greenhouse gases and aerosols, and the estimation of the aerosol-induced direct longwave (LW) radiative forcing in the spectral region 5-20 mum at the Earth's surface (BOA; bottom of the atmosphere) and the top of the atmosphere (TOA) in cloud-free atmospheric conditions. These objectives were accomplished by conducting case studies on clear sky, smoky, and dusty conditions that took place in the Great Basin of the USA in 2013. Both the solar and thermal IR measurements and a state-of-the-science radiative transfer model, the LBLDIS, a combination of the Line-By-Line Radiative Transfer Model and the Discrete Ordinate Radiative Transfer (DISORT) solver were employed for the study. The LW aerosol forcing is often not included in climate models because the aerosol effect on the LW is often assumed to be negligible. We lack knowledge of aerosol characteristics in the LW region, and aerosol properties exhibit high variability. We have found that the LW TOA radiative forcing due to fine mode aerosols, mainly associated with small biomass burning smoke particles, is + 0.4 W/m2 which seems to be small, but it is similar to the LW radiative forcing due to increase in CO2 concentration in the Earth's atmosphere since the preindustrial era of 1750 (+ 1.6 W/m 2). The LW radiative forcing due to coarse mode aerosols, associated with large airborne mineral dust particles, was found to be as much as + 5.02 W/m2 at the surface and + 1.71 W/m2 at the TOA. All of these significant positive values of the aerosol radiative forcing both at the BOA and TOA indicate that the aerosols have a heating effect in the LW range, which contributes to counterbalancing the cooling effect associated with the aerosol radiative forcing in the shortwave (SW) spectral region. In the meantime, we have found that LW radiative forcing by aerosols is highly sensitive to particle size and complex refractive indices of

  20. Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chin, Mian; Kahn, Ralph A.; Remer, Lorraine A.; Yu, Hongbin; Rind, David; Feingold, Graham; Quinn, Patricia K.; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Streets, David G.; DeCola, Phillip; Halthore, Rangasayi

    2009-01-01

    This report critically reviews current knowledge about global distributions and properties of atmospheric aerosols, as they relate to aerosol impacts on climate. It assesses possible next steps aimed at substantially reducing uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing estimates. Current measurement techniques and modeling approaches are summarized, providing context. As a part of the Synthesis and Assessment Product in the Climate Change Science Program, this assessment builds upon recent related assessments, including the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4, 2007) and other Climate Change Science Program reports. The objectives of this report are (1) to promote a consensus about the knowledge base for climate change decision support, and (2) to provide a synthesis and integration of the current knowledge of the climate-relevant impacts of anthropogenic aerosols for policy makers, policy analysts, and general public, both within and outside the U.S government and worldwide.

  1. Satellite Remote Sensing of Aerosol Forcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Remer, Lorraine; Kaufman, Yoram; Ramaprasad, Jaya; Procopio, Aline; Levin, Zev

    1999-01-01

    The role of aerosol forcing remains one of the largest uncertainties in estimating man's impact on the global climate system. One school of thought suggests that remote sensing by satellite sensors will provide the data necessary to narrow these uncertainties. While satellite measurements of direct aerosol forcing appear to be straightforward, satellite measurements of aerosol indirect forcing will be more complicated. Pioneering studies identified indirect aerosol forcing using AVHRR data in the biomass burning regions of Brazil. We have expanded this analysis with AVHRR to include an additional year of data and assimilated water vapor fields. The results show similar latitudinal dependence as reported by Kaufman and Fraser, but by using water vapor observations we conclude that latitude is not a proxy for water vapor and the strength of the indirect effect is not correlated to water vapor amounts. In addition to the AVHRR study we have identified indirect aerosol forcing in Brazil at much smaller spatial scales using the MODIS Airborne Simulator. The strength of the indirect effect appears to be related to cloud type and cloud dynamics. There is a suggestion that some of the cloud dynamics may be influenced by smoke destabilization of the atmospheric column. Finally, this study attempts to quantify remote sensing limitations due to the accuracy limits of the retrieval algorithms. We use a combination of numerical aerosol transport models, ground-based AERONET data and ISCCP cloud climatology to determine how much of the forcing occurs in regions too clean to determine from satellite retrievals.

  2. Cloud Dynamical Controls on Climate Forcing by Aerosol-Cloud Interactions: New Insights from Observations, High-Resolution Models, and Parameterizations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donner, Leo

    2016-04-01

    At frequently observed, low updraft speeds, cloud droplet and ice crystal number concentrations are controlled mostly by cloud-scale vertical velocities and not aerosol number concentrations. Reducing uncertainty in estimates of climate forcing by aerosol-cloud interactions will require taking account of these thermodynamically limited cloud regimes in global climate models. The scales of the relevant cloud dynamics are often well-below resolved scales in climate and numerical weather prediction models, ranging to tens of meters at large-eddy scale for stratocumulus clouds. Observations of vertical velocities from cloud radars in field programs and at fixed observational sites are providing a basis for evaluating new classes of parameterizations for convective and non-convective clouds that include probability distribution functions (PDFs) for vertical velocity, which can be used to drive physically based representations of droplet and crystal activation. High-resolution cloud models with detailed treatments of aerosol and microphysical processes can also be evaluated using these observations. Vertical velocities in both high-resolution models and parameterizations currently show discrepancies from observations while capturing qualitative features. Improved treatments of microphysical and turbulence processes in high-resolution cloud models hold promise for improving agreement with observations, while a wide range of advances in parameterization are possible paths to improvement for simulating sub-grid vertical velocities and aerosol-cloud interactions.

  3. Aerosol-induced changes in summer rainfall and circulation in the Australasian region: a study using single-forcing climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rotstayn, L. D.; Jeffrey, S. J.; Collier, M. A.; Dravitzki, S. M.; Hirst, A. C.; Syktus, J. I.; Wong, K. K.

    2012-02-01

    We use a coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model (CSIRO-Mk3.6) to investigate the roles of different forcing agents as drivers of summer rainfall trends in the Australasian region. Our results suggest that anthropogenic aerosols have contributed to the observed multi-decadal rainfall increase over north-western Australia. As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we performed multiple 10-member ensembles of historical climate change, which are analysed for the period 1951-2010. The historical runs include ensembles driven by "all forcings" (HIST), all forcings except anthropogenic aerosols (NO_AA) and forcing only from long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGAS). Anthropogenic aerosol-induced effects in a warming climate are calculated from the difference of HIST minus NO_AA. We also compare a 10-member 21st century ensemble driven by Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). Simulated aerosol-induced rainfall trends over the Indo-Pacific region for austral summer and boreal summer show a distinct contrast. In boreal summer, there is a southward shift of equatorial rainfall, consistent with the idea that anthropogenic aerosols have suppressed Asian monsoonal rainfall, and caused a southward shift of the local Hadley circulation. In austral summer, the aerosol-induced response more closely resembles a westward shift and strengthening of the upward branch of the Walker circulation, rather than a coherent southward shift of regional tropical rainfall. Thus the mechanism by which anthropogenic aerosols may affect Australian summer rainfall is unclear. Focusing on summer rainfall trends over north-western Australia (NWA), we find that CSIRO-Mk3.6 simulates a strong rainfall decrease in RCP4.5, whereas simulated trends in HIST are weak and insignificant during 1951-2010. The weak rainfall trends in HIST are due to compensating effects of different forcing agents: there is a significant decrease in GHGAS, offset by an aerosol

  4. Influence of aerosol vertical distribution on radiative budget and climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nabat, Pierre; Michou, Martine; Saint-Martin, David; Watson, Laura

    2016-04-01

    Aerosols interact with shortwave and longwave radiation with ensuing consequences on radiative budget and climate. Aerosols are represented in climate models either using an interactive aerosol scheme including prognostic aerosol variables, or using climatologies, such as monthly aerosol optical depth (AOD) fields. In the first case, aerosol vertical distribution can vary rapidly, at a daily or even hourly scale, following the aerosol evolution calculated by the interactive scheme. On the contrary, in the second case, a fixed aerosol vertical distribution is generally imposed by climatological profiles. The objective of this work is to study the impact of aerosol vertical distribution on aerosol radiative forcing, with ensuing effects on climate. Simulations have thus been carried out using CNRM-CM, which is a global climate model including an interactive aerosol scheme representing the five main aerosol species (desert dust, sea-salt, sulfate, black carbon and organic matter). Several multi-annual simulations covering the past recent years are compared, including either the prognostic aerosol variables, or monthly AOD fields with different aerosol vertical distributions. In the second case, AOD fields directly come from the first simulation, so that all simulations have the same integrated aerosol loads. The results show that modifying the aerosol vertical distribution has a significant impact on radiative budget, with consequences on global climate. These differences, highlighting the importance of aerosol vertical distribution in climate models, probably come from the modification of atmospheric circulation induced by changes in the heights of the different aerosols. Besides, nonlinear effects in the superposition of aerosol and clouds reinforce the impact of aerosol vertical distribution, since aerosol radiative forcing depends highly upon the presence of clouds, and upon the relative vertical position of aerosols and clouds.

  5. Evaluating the skill of high-resolution WRF-Chem simulations in describing drivers of aerosol direct climate forcing on the regional scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crippa, P.; Sullivan, R. C.; Thota, A.; Pryor, S. C.

    2016-01-01

    Assessing the ability of global and regional models to describe aerosol optical properties is essential to reducing uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing in the contemporary climate and to improving confidence in future projections. Here we evaluate the performance of high-resolution simulations conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) in capturing spatiotemporal variability of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and the Ångström exponent (AE) by comparison with ground- and space-based remotely sensed observations. WRF-Chem is run over eastern North America at a resolution of 12 km for a representative year (2008). A systematic positive bias in simulated AOD relative to observations is found (annual mean fractional bias (MFB) is 0.15 and 0.50 relative to MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and AERONET, respectively), whereas the spatial variability is well captured during most months. The spatial correlation of observed and simulated AOD shows a clear seasonal cycle with highest correlation during summer months (r = 0.5-0.7) when the aerosol loading is large and more observations are available. The model is biased towards the simulation of coarse-mode aerosols (annual MFB for AE = -0.10 relative to MODIS and -0.59 for AERONET), but the spatial correlation for AE with observations is 0.3-0.5 during most months, despite the fact that AE is retrieved with higher uncertainty from the remote-sensing observations. WRF-Chem also exhibits high skill in identifying areas of extreme and non-extreme aerosol loading, and its ability to correctly simulate the location and relative intensity of extreme aerosol events (i.e., AOD > 75th percentile) varies between 30 and 70 % during winter and summer months, respectively.

  6. Impact of the Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing on the Asian summer monsoon using ICTP-Regional Climate Model (RegCM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zakey, Ashraf; Giorgi, Filippo; Bi, Xunqiang

    2010-05-01

    The direct radiative forcing of aerosol over Asia play a significant impact on climate. Eleven types of aerosols (Anthropogenic, Biogenic and Natural sources) are implemented into Aerosol Module in ICTP-Regional Climate Model framework, these aerosols are Black Carbon (hydrophobic and hydrophilic), Organic Carbon (hydrophobic and hydrophilic), Sulfate, Sea-Salt (fine and accumulation modes), and dust (4-size bins). The results shown that during five year study 2002-2006, the surface radiative forcing is about -160 W/m2 over the western part of China and -20 W/m2 over the eastern part. This cooling of the surface radiative forcing reduced the temperature from -3.5C to -3.0C over the western part and eastern part of China, respectively. Surface cooling (1.5C) is recorded over India as well. Negative impact in Wind speed values are decreased (- 1.5 m/s) over the eastern part of China, while there is a positive impact over the Tibetan Plateau ( 2 m/s). The most dominant aerosols in the pre-monsoon are dust particles, because during the pre-monsoon season of March-April, dusts from the deserts of western China, and the Middle East are transported into the northern and southern slopes of the Tibetan Plateau causing strong surface cooling in the radiative forcing. Warming effects are noticed in the TOA radiative forcing at the Tibetan Plateau, this because the effects of the 'elevated heat-bump' where the absorption of solar radiation by dust heats up the elevated surface air and then the heated air rises via dry convection creating a positive temperature anomaly in the mid-to-upper troposphere over the Tibetan Plateau relative to the region to the south. No clear event is recorded on precipitation over the continent, but there is increasing is recorded close to the India over the Indian Ocean (3.5 mm ) during December-February (DJF) and March-May (MAM) seasons.

  7. Perspective: Climate Forcings in the Industrial Era

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Lacis, Andrew; Ruedy, Reto; Tegen, Ina; Matthews, Elaine

    1998-01-01

    The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

  8. Climate Forcing in the Industrial Era

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.

    1998-01-01

    The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

  9. Climate forcings in the Industrial era

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Lacis, Andrew; Ruedy, Reto; Tegen, Ina; Matthews, Elaine

    1998-01-01

    The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular “business as usual” or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue. PMID:9788985

  10. Climate Forcings in the Industrial Era

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Lacis, Andrew; Ruedy, Reto; Tegen, Ina; Matthews, Elaine

    1998-01-01

    The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is-that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

  11. The climate impact of aviation aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gettelman, A.; Chen, C.

    2013-06-01

    A comprehensive general circulation model (GCM) is used to estimate the climate impact of aviation emissions of black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO4) aerosols. Aviation BC is found not to exert significant radiative forcing impacts, when BC nucleating efficiencies in line with observations are used. Sulfate emissions from aircraft are found to alter liquid clouds at altitudes below emission (˜200 hPa); contributing to shortwave cloud brightening through enhanced liquid water path and drop number concentration in major flight corridors, particularly in the N. Atlantic. Global averaged sulfate direct and indirect effects on liquid clouds of 46 mWm-2are larger than the warming effect of aviation induced cloudiness of 16 mWm-2. The net result of including contrail cirrus and aerosol effects is a global averaged cooling of -21±11 mWm-2. These aerosol forcings should be considered with contrails in evaluating the total global impact of aviation on climate.

  12. Stratospheric aerosols and climatic change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baldwin, B.; Pollack, J. B.; Summers, A.; Toon, O. B.; Sagan, C.; Van Camp, W.

    1976-01-01

    Generated primarily by volcanic explosions, a layer of submicron silicate particles and particles made of concentrated sulfuric acids solution is present in the stratosphere. Flights through the stratosphere may be a future source of stratospheric aerosols, since the effluent from supersonic transports contains sulfurous gases (which will be converted to H2SO4) while the exhaust from Space Shuttles contains tiny aluminum oxide particles. Global heat balance calculations have shown that the stratospheric aerosols have made important contributions to some climatic changes. In the present paper, accurate radiative transfer calculations of the globally-averaged surface temperature (T) are carried out to estimate the sensitivity of the climate to changes in the number of stratospheric aerosols. The results obtained for a specified model atmosphere, including a vertical profile of the aerosols, indicate that the climate is unlikely to be affected by supersonic transports and Space Shuttles, during the next decades.

  13. Climate implications of carbonaceous aerosols: An aerosol microphysical study using the GISS/MATRIX climate model

    SciTech Connect

    Bauer, Susanne E.; Menon, Surabi; Koch, Dorothy; Bond, Tami; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2010-04-09

    Recently, attention has been drawn towards black carbon aerosols as a likely short-term climate warming mitigation candidate. However the global and regional impacts of the direct, cloud-indirect and semi-direct forcing effects are highly uncertain, due to the complex nature of aerosol evolution and its climate interactions. Black carbon is directly released as particle into the atmosphere, but then interacts with other gases and particles through condensation and coagulation processes leading to further aerosol growth, aging and internal mixing. A detailed aerosol microphysical scheme, MATRIX, embedded within the global GISS modelE includes the above processes that determine the lifecycle and climate impact of aerosols. This study presents a quantitative assessment of the impact of microphysical processes involving black carbon, such as emission size distributions and optical properties on aerosol cloud activation and radiative forcing. Our best estimate for net direct and indirect aerosol radiative forcing change is -0.56 W/m{sup 2} between 1750 and 2000. However, the direct and indirect aerosol effects are very sensitive to the black and organic carbon size distribution and consequential mixing state. The net radiative forcing change can vary between -0.32 to -0.75 W/m{sup 2} depending on these carbonaceous particle properties. Assuming that sulfates, nitrates and secondary organics form a coating shell around a black carbon core, rather than forming a uniformly mixed particles, changes the overall net radiative forcing from a negative to a positive number. Black carbon mitigation scenarios showed generally a benefit when mainly black carbon sources such as diesel emissions are reduced, reducing organic and black carbon sources such as bio-fuels, does not lead to reduced warming.

  14. Characterization of Speciated Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing Over California

    SciTech Connect

    Zhao, Chun; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Easter, Richard C.; Hand, Jenny; Avise, J.

    2013-03-16

    . Aerosol radiative forcing is presented along with the contribution from individual aerosol species from the simulation with anthropogenic EC emission doubled. On statewide average over California, aerosol reduces the seasonal-average surface radiation fluxes by about 3 W m-2 with a maximum of 10 W m-2 in summer. In the atmosphere, aerosol introduces a warming effect of about 2 W m-2 with a maximum of 10 W m-2 also in summer. EC and dust contribute about 75-95% and 1-10% of the total warming through the seasons, respectively. At the top of atmosphere (TOA), the overall aerosol radiative effect is cooling with a maximum of -3.5 W m-2. EC contributes exclusively to the TOA warming of up to about 0.7 W m-2. The encouraging performance of WRF-Chem in simulating aerosols and their radiative forcing suggests that the model is suitable for further investigation of the impact of emission control on radiative forcing and regional climate over California.

  15. Spatially Refined Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing Efficiencies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Henze, Daven K.; Shindell, Drew Todd; Akhtar, Farhan; Spurr, Robert J. D.; Pinder, Robert W.; Loughlin, Dan; Kopacz, Monika; Singh, Kumaresh; Shim, Changsub

    2012-01-01

    Global aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF) is an important metric for assessing potential climate impacts of future emissions changes. However, the radiative consequences of emissions perturbations are not readily quantified nor well understood at the level of detail necessary to assess realistic policy options. To address this challenge, here we show how adjoint model sensitivities can be used to provide highly spatially resolved estimates of the DRF from emissions of black carbon (BC), primary organic carbon (OC), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and ammonia (NH3), using the example of emissions from each sector and country following multiple Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs). The radiative forcing efficiencies of many individual emissions are found to differ considerably from regional or sectoral averages for NH3, SO2 from the power sector, and BC from domestic, industrial, transportation and biomass burning sources. Consequently, the amount of emissions controls required to attain a specific DRF varies at intracontinental scales by up to a factor of 4. These results thus demonstrate both a need and means for incorporating spatially refined aerosol DRF into analysis of future emissions scenario and design of air quality and climate change mitigation policies.

  16. Simulation of the Indirect Radiative Forcing of Climate Due to Aerosols by the Two-Way Coupled WRF-CMAQ over the Eastern United States

    EPA Science Inventory

    In this study, the shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF) and longwave cloud forcing (LWCF) are estimated with the newly developed two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ over the eastern United States. Preliminary indirect aerosol forcing has been successfully implemented in WRF-CMAQ. The comparisons...

  17. New Directions: Emerging Satellite Observations of Above-cloud Aerosols and Direct Radiative Forcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yu, Hongbin; Zhang, Zhibo

    2013-01-01

    Spaceborne lidar and passive sensors with multi-wavelength and polarization capabilities onboard the A-Train provide unprecedented opportunities of observing above-cloud aerosols and direct radiative forcing. Significant progress has been made in recent years in exploring these new aerosol remote sensing capabilities and generating unique datasets. The emerging observations will advance the understanding of aerosol climate forcing.

  18. The contribution of carbonaceous aerosols to climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Penner, J.E. |; Chuang, C.C.; Liousse, C.

    1996-04-01

    Contribution of aerosols to climate change results from two effects: clear-sky and cloudy-sky forcing. The clear-sky climate forcing by carbonaceous aerosols from biomass burning and fossil fuel burning depends on the relative contribution of scattering and absorption by the aerosols which in turn depends on the fraction of aerosol mass associated with black carbon and its size distribution. This paper reviews estimates for the emission of carbonaceous aerosols, placing these estimates in the context of estimates for the emissions of anthropogenic and natural sulfate aerosols and natural sources of organic particulate matter. The cloudy-sky forcing from carbonaceous aerosols is difficult to estimate because, among other factors, it depends on the amount of absorption by the aerosols in the cloud. It is also highly sensitive to the assumed pre-existing, natural aerosol abundance. An upper limit for this cloudy-sky forcing is -4.4 W/m{sup 2}, but may range as low as -2.4 W/m{sup 2}, depending on background aerosol concentrations. These estimates do not yet account for absorption of radiation by black carbon associated with cloud or the presence of pre-existing dust particles.

  19. Effect of Aerosol and Ocean Representation on Simulated Climate Responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dallafior, Tanja; Folini, Doris; Knutti, Reto; Wild, Martin

    2016-04-01

    It is still debated to what extent anthropogenic aerosols shaped 20th century surface temperatures, especially sea surface temperatures (SSTs), through alteration of surface solar radiation (SSR). SSTs, in turn, are crucial in the context of atmospheric circulation and ocean heat uptake. Uncertainty considering anthropogenic aerosol forcing thus translates into uncertainty regarding ocean heat uptake and, ultimately, climate responses towards anthropogenic influences. We use the global climate model ECHAM to analyse the 20th century climate response towards either anthropogenic aerosols or well-mixed greenhouse gases or both with different representations of ocean and aerosols: atmosphere-only with prescribed SSTs and interactive aerosols; mixed-layer ocean and interactive or prescribed aerosols; fully coupled with prescribed aerosols. For interactive aerosols we use the Hamburg Aerosol Module (HAM). Our results suggest that up to 15% of global ocean surfaces undergo an SSR reduction of at least -4W/m² in the year 2000, due to anthropogenic aerosols. The area affected depends on how aerosols are represented and whether clear sky or all sky SSR is considered. In MLO equilibria with interactive aerosols, anthropogenic aerosols clearly shape surface temperature response patterns. This is to a lesser degree the case for the transient fully coupled case. Additivity of global mean temperature responses towards single forcings - an assumption often made in the literature - is not fulfilled for the MLO experiments, but for the fully coupled experiments. While some of these differences can be attributed to the differing ocean representation, it is implied that differing aerosol representation may play an even more relevant role. Thus, our results corroborate not only the relevance of anthropogenic aerosols for surface temperature responses, but also highlight the relevance of choice of aerosol representation.

  20. Radiative forcing of climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ramanswamy, V.; Shine, Keith; Leovy, Conway; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Rodhe, Henning; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Ding, M.; Lelieveld, Joseph; Edmonds, Jae A.; Mccormick, M. Patrick

    1991-01-01

    An update of the scientific discussions presented in Chapter 2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report is presented. The update discusses the atmospheric radiative and chemical species of significance for climate change. There are two major objectives of the present update. The first is an extension of the discussion on the Global Warming Potentials (GWP's), including a reevaluation in view of the updates in the lifetimes of the radiatively active species. The second important objective is to underscore major developments in the radiative forcing of climate due to the observed stratospheric ozone losses occurring between 1979 and 1990.

  1. Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing: Calculations and Measurements from the Tropospheric

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Russell, P. B.; Hignett, P.; Stowe, L. L.; Livingston, J. M.; Kinne, S.; Wong, J.; Chan, K. Roland (Technical Monitor)

    1997-01-01

    Radiative forcing is defined as the change in the net (downwelling minus upwelling) radiative flux at a given level in the atmosphere. This net flux is the radiative power density available to drive climatic processes in the earth-atmosphere system below that level. Recent research shows that radiative forcing by aerosol particles is a major source of uncertainty in climate predictions. To reduce those uncertainties, TARFOX was designed to determine direct (cloud-free) radiative forcing by the aerosols in one of the world's major industrial pollution plumes--that flowing from the east coast of the US over the Atlantic Ocean. TARFOX measured a variety of aerosol radiative effects (including direct forcing) while simultaneously measuring the chemical, physical, and optical properties of the aerosol particles causing those effects. The resulting data sets permit a wide variety of tests of the consistency, or closure, among the measurements and the models that link them. Because climate predictions use the same or similar model components, closure tests help to assess and reduce prediction uncertainties. In this work we use the TARFOX-determined aerosol, gas, and surface properties to compute radiative forcing for a variety of aerosol episodes, with inadvisable optical depths ranging from 0.07 to 0.6. We calculate forcing by several techniques with varying degrees of sophistication, in part to test the range of applicability of simplified techniques--which are often the only ones feasible in climate predictions by general circulation models (GCMs). We then compare computed forcing to that determined from: (1) Upwelling and downwelling fluxes (0.3-0.7 mm and 0.7-3.0 mm) measured by radiometers on the UK MRF C-130. and (2) Daily average cloud-free absorbed solar and emitted thermal radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere derived from the AVHRR radiometer on the NOAA- 14 satellite. The calculations and measurements all yield aerosol direct radiative forcing in the

  2. Global simulations of BVOC-aerosol-climate feedbacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Makkonen, Risto; Egill Kristjánsson, Jón; Kirkevåg, Alf; Seland, Øyvind; Iversen, Trond; Kerminen, Veli-Matti; Kulmala, Markku

    2015-04-01

    The terrestrial emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) is modulated by several climate variables. Since the emitted BVOCs influence atmospheric aerosol formation and the respective aerosol forcing, there are several potential aerosol-climate feedback mechanisms which operate via BVOC emissions. Increased aerosol loading will increase the amount of diffuse radiation with respect to global radiation, leading to increased photosynthesis. On the other hand, an increase in BVOC emission could increase concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), leading to changes in cloud albedo and cloud dynamics. We have developed the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) to capture the necessary processes and interactions in order to describe BVOC-climate-feedbacks. BVOC emissions are calculated online by the MEGAN algorithm, and secondary organic aerosol formation from monoterpene and isoprene is accounted for. The developed coupled model is used to simulate the climate feedbacks with various idealized perturbations, including doubled/quadrupled CO2 concentration and decreasing anthropogenic aerosol emission. Equilibrium simulations with doubled CO2 show an increase of monoterpene emission by 20% globally, leading to increase in aerosol growth, aerosol loading and CCN concentration. Simulations indicate an overall negative BVOC-aerosol-climate feedback, which could act to reduce the future climate warming. However, the magnitude of the feedback is highly sensitive to the spatial distribution of the initial perturbation, applied BVOC emission parameters, and the underlying assumptions of SOA formation processes.

  3. High Resolution Aerosol Modeling: Decadal Changes in Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Bergmann, D J; Chuang, C C; Govindasamy, B; Cameron-Smith, P J; Rotman, D A

    2005-02-01

    The Atmospheric Science Division of LLNL has performed high-resolution calculations of direct sulfate forcing using a DOE-provided computer resource at NERSC. We integrated our global chemistry-aerosol model (IMPACT) with the LLNL high-resolution global climate model (horizontal resolution as high as 100 km) to examine the temporal evolution of sulfate forcing since 1950. We note that all previous assessments of sulfate forcing reported in IPCC (2001) were based on global models with coarse spatial resolutions ({approx} 300 km or even coarser). However, the short lifetime of aerosols ({approx} days) results in large spatial and temporal variations of radiative forcing by sulfate. As a result, global climate models with coarse resolutions do not accurately simulate sulfate forcing on regional scales. It requires much finer spatial resolutions in order to address the effects of regional anthropogenic SO{sub 2} emissions on the global atmosphere as well as the effects of long-range transport of sulfate aerosols on the regional climate forcing. By taking advantage of the tera-scale computer resources at NERSC, we simulated the historic direct sulfate forcing at much finer spatial resolutions than ever attempted before. Furthermore, we performed high-resolution chemistry simulations and saved monthly averaged oxidant fields, which will be used in subsequent simulations of sulfate aerosol formation and their radiative impact.

  4. Satellite Remote Sensing of Aerosol Forcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Remer, Lorraine; Kaufman, Yoram; Ramaprasad, Jaya; Procopio, Aline; Levin, Zev

    1999-01-01

    Aerosol and cloud impacts on the earth's climate become a recent hot topic in climate studies. Having near future earth observing satellites, EOS-AM1 (Earth Observing System-AM1), ENVISAT (Environmental Satellites) and ADEOS-2 (Advanced Earth Observation Satellite-2), it will be a good timing to discuss how to obtain and use the microphysical parameters of aerosols and clouds for studying their climate impacts. Center for Climate System Research (CCSR) of the University of Tokyo invites you to 'Symposium on synergy between satellite-remote sensing and climate modeling in aerosol and cloud issues.' Here, we like to discuss the current and future issues in the remote sensing of aerosol and cloud microphysical parameters and their climate modeling studies. This workshop is also one of workshop series on aerosol remote sensing held in 1996, Washington D. C., and Meribel, France in 1999. It should be reminded that NASDA/ADEOS-1 & -2 (National Space Development Agency of Japan/Advanced Earth Observation Satellite-1 & -2) Workshop will be held in the following week (Dec. 6-10, 1999), so that this opportunity will be a perfect period for you to attend two meetings for satellite remote sensing in Japan. A weekend in Kyoto, the old capital of Japan, will add a nice memory to your visiting Japan. *Issues in the symposium: 1) most recent topics in aerosol and cloud remot sensing, and 2) utility of satellite products on climate modeling of cloud-aerosol effects.

  5. Climate impacts of carbonaceous and other non-sulfate aerosols: A proposed study

    SciTech Connect

    Andreae, M.O.; Crutzen, P.J.; Cofer, W.R. III; Hollande, J.M.

    1995-06-01

    In addition to sulfate aerosols, carbonaceous and other non-sulfate aerosols are potentially significant contributors to global climate change. We present evidence that strongly suggests that current assessments of the effects of aerosols on climate may be inadequate because major aerosol components, especially carbonaceous aerosols, are not included in these assessments. Although data on the properties and distributions of anthropogenic carbonaceous aerosols are insufficient to allow quantification of their climate impacts, the existing information suggests that climate forcing by this aerosol component may be significant and comparable to that by sulfate aerosols. We propose that a research program be undertaken to support a quantitative assessment of the role in climate forcing of non-sulfate, particularly carbonaceous, aerosols.

  6. Importance of clouds and aerosols in assessing climate change (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boucher, O.; Randall, D. A.; Artaxo, P. P.; Bretherton, C. S.; Feingold, G.; Forster, P.; Kerminen, V.; Kondo, Y.; Liao, H.; Lohmann, U.; Rasch, P. J.; Satheesh, S.; Sherwood, S. C.; Stevens, B. B.; Zhang, X.; Myhre, G.; Shindell, D. T.

    2013-12-01

    Clouds and aerosols continue to contribute the largest uncertainty to estimates and interpretations of the Earth's changing energy budget. This talk will focus on process understanding and will discuss our assessment of how clouds and aerosols contribute and respond to climate change based on observations, theory and models. Many of the cloudiness and humidity changes simulated by climate models in warmer climates are now understood as thermodynamical responses or responses to large-scale circulation changes that do not appear to depend strongly on model parameterizations. For example, multiple lines of evidence now indicate positive feedback contributions from water vapor and lapse rate, and from circulation-driven changes in both the height of high clouds and the latitudinal distribution of clouds. However, some aspects of the overall cloud response vary substantially among models, and these appear to depend strongly on subgrid-scale processes in which there is less confidence. Climate-relevant aerosol processes are better understood, and climate-relevant aerosol properties better observed, than at the time of the Fourth Assessment Report. Our assessment for the effective radiative forcing by aerosol is less negative than before because of a re-evaluation of aerosol absorption, the existence of rapid adjustment of clouds in response to aerosol absorption, and multi-scale assessment of aerosol-cloud interactions. The aerosol forcing continues to dominate the uncertainty in the total anthropogenic forcing, but both models and observations suggest that it has not changed substantially in the global mean over the last couple of decades. Finally many gaps remain in our understanding of the role of clouds and aerosols on the climate system, and we will assess some of the challenges that lie ahead of us.

  7. Experimental Characterization of Radiation Forcing due to Atmospheric Aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sreenivas, K. R.; Singh, D. K.; Ponnulakshmi, V. K.; Subramanian, G.

    2011-11-01

    Micro-meteorological processes in the nocturnal atmospheric boundary layer (NBL) including the formation of radiation-fog and the development of inversion layers are controlled by heat transfer and the vertical temperature distribution close to the ground. In a recent study, it has been shown that the temperature profile close to the ground in stably-stratified, NBL is controlled by the radiative forcing due to suspended aerosols. Estimating aerosol forcing is also important in geo-engineering applications to evaluate the use of aerosols to mitigate greenhouse effects. Modeling capability in the above scenarios is limited by our knowledge of this forcing. Here, the design of an experimental setup is presented which can be used for evaluating the IR-radiation forcing on aerosols under either Rayleigh-Benard condition or under conditions corresponding to the NBL. We present results indicating the effect of surface emissivities of the top and bottom boundaries and the aerosol concentration on the temperature profiles. In order to understand the observed enhancement of the convection-threshold, we have determined the conduction-radiation time constant of an aerosol laden air layer. Our results help to explain observed temperature profiles in the NBL, the apparent stability of such profiles and indicate the need to account for the effect of aerosols in climatic/weather models.

  8. Enhanced shortwave cloud radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosols

    SciTech Connect

    Schwartz, S.E.; Slingo, A.

    1995-05-01

    It has been suggested that anthropogenic aerosols in the troposphere can influence the microphysical properties of clouds and in turn their reflectivity, thereby exerting a radiative influence on climate. This article presents the theoretical basis for of this so-called indirect forcing and reviews pertinent observational evidence and climate model calculations of its magnitude and geographical distribution. We restrict consideration to liquid-water clouds.

  9. Two Hundred Fifty Years of Aerosols and Climate: The End of the Age of Aerosols

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven J.; Bond, Tami C.

    2014-01-20

    Carbonaceous and sulfur aerosols have a substantial global and regional influence on climate in addition to their impact on health and ecosystems. The magnitude of this influence has changed substantially over the past and is expected to continue to change into the future. An integrated picture of the changing climatic influence of black carbon, organic carbon and sulfate over the period 1850 through 2100, focusing on uncertainty, is presented using updated historical inventories and a coordinated set of emission projections. While aerosols have had a substantial impact on climate over the past century, by the end of the 21st century aerosols will likely be only a minor contributor to radiative forcing due to increases in greenhouse gas forcing and a global decrease in pollutant emissions. This outcome is even more certain under a successful implementation of a policy to limit greenhouse gas emissions as low-carbon energy technologies that do not emit appreciable aerosol or SO2 are deployed.

  10. Global simulation of chemistry and radiative forcing of mineral aerosols

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Yang; Easter, R.C.; Ghan, S.J.; Leung, L.R.

    1996-12-31

    Mineral aerosols are increasingly gaining attention because of their roles in atmospheric chemistry and climate system. A global three-dimensional aerosol/chemistry model (GChM) coupled with a general circulation model (GCM) is used to simulate the sources/sinks, chemistry and radiative forcing of mineral aerosols. Regional and seasonal variations in distribution of mineral aerosols are predicted based on vegetation types, threshold wind velocities and soil moisture data. The role of mineral aerosols as a reactive surface available for heterogeneous uptake of gas-phase species in the global atmosphere is investigated along with their impact on the tropospheric sulfur cycle and the photochemical oxidant cycle. In particular, the heterogeneous surface reactions of SO{sub 2}, H{sub 2}SO{sub 4}, NO{sub 3}, N{sub 2}O{sub 5}, HNO{sub 3}, O{sub 3}, OH, HO{sub 2}, H{sub 2}O{sub 2} and CH{sub 3}O{sub 2} on mineral aerosols are simulated. The direct radiative forcing by mineral aerosols and the indirect forcing through influencing droplet number concentration are further estimated. The model simulation results are analyzed and compared against the available observational data.

  11. Attribution of climate forcing to economic sectors.

    PubMed

    Unger, Nadine; Bond, Tami C; Wang, James S; Koch, Dorothy M; Menon, Surabi; Shindell, Drew T; Bauer, Susanne

    2010-02-23

    A much-cited bar chart provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change displays the climate impact, as expressed by radiative forcing in watts per meter squared, of individual chemical species. The organization of the chart reflects the history of atmospheric chemistry, in which investigators typically focused on a single species of interest. However, changes in pollutant emissions and concentrations are a symptom, not a cause, of the primary driver of anthropogenic climate change: human activity. In this paper, we suggest organizing the bar chart according to drivers of change-that is, by economic sector. Climate impacts of tropospheric ozone, fine aerosols, aerosol-cloud interactions, methane, and long-lived greenhouse gases are considered. We quantify the future evolution of the total radiative forcing due to perpetual constant year 2000 emissions by sector, most relevant for the development of climate policy now, and focus on two specific time points, near-term at 2020 and long-term at 2100. Because sector profiles differ greatly, this approach fosters the development of smart climate policy and is useful to identify effective opportunities for rapid mitigation of anthropogenic radiative forcing. PMID:20133724

  12. Attribution of climate forcing to economic sectors

    PubMed Central

    Unger, Nadine; Bond, Tami C.; Wang, James S.; Koch, Dorothy M.; Menon, Surabi; Shindell, Drew T.; Bauer, Susanne

    2010-01-01

    A much-cited bar chart provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change displays the climate impact, as expressed by radiative forcing in watts per meter squared, of individual chemical species. The organization of the chart reflects the history of atmospheric chemistry, in which investigators typically focused on a single species of interest. However, changes in pollutant emissions and concentrations are a symptom, not a cause, of the primary driver of anthropogenic climate change: human activity. In this paper, we suggest organizing the bar chart according to drivers of change—that is, by economic sector. Climate impacts of tropospheric ozone, fine aerosols, aerosol-cloud interactions, methane, and long-lived greenhouse gases are considered. We quantify the future evolution of the total radiative forcing due to perpetual constant year 2000 emissions by sector, most relevant for the development of climate policy now, and focus on two specific time points, near-term at 2020 and long-term at 2100. Because sector profiles differ greatly, this approach fosters the development of smart climate policy and is useful to identify effective opportunities for rapid mitigation of anthropogenic radiative forcing. PMID:20133724

  13. Revisiting Aerosol Effects in Global Climate Models Using an Aerosol Lidar Simulator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, P. L.; Chepfer, H.; Winker, D. M.; Ghan, S.; Rasch, P. J.

    2015-12-01

    Aerosol effects are considered a major source of uncertainty in global climate models and the direct and indirect radiative forcings have strong model dependency. These forcings are routinely evaluated (and calibrated) against observations, among them satellite retrievals are greatly used for their near-global coverage. However, the forcings calculated from model output are not directly comparable with those computed from satellite retrievals since sampling and algorithmic differences (such as cloud screening, noise reduction, and retrieval) between models and observations are not accounted for. It is our hypothesis that the conventional model validation procedures for comparing satellite observations and model simulations can mislead model development and introduce biases. Hence, we have developed an aerosol lidar simulator for global climate models that simulates the CALIOP lidar signal at 532nm. The simulator uses the same algorithms as those used to produce the "GCM-oriented CALIPSO Aerosol Product" to (1) objectively sample lidar signal profiles; and (2) derive aerosol fields (e.g., extinction profile, aerosol type, etc) from lidar signals. This allows us to sample and derive aerosol fields in the model and real atmosphere in identical ways. Using the Department of Energy's ACME model simulations, we found that the simulator-retrieved aerosol distribution and aerosol-cloud interactions are significantly different from those computed from conventional approaches, and that the model is much closer to satellite estimates than previously believed.

  14. Radiative Forcing and Climate Response: From Paleoclimate to Future Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caldeira, K.; Cao, L.

    2011-12-01

    The concept of radiative forcing was introduced to allow comparison of climate effects of different greenhouse gases. In the classic view, radiative forcing is applied to the climate system and the climate responds to this forcing, approaching some equilibrium temperature change that is the product of the radiative forcing times the 'climate sensitivity' to radiative forcing. However, this classic view is oversimplified in several respects. Climate forcing and response often cannot be clearly separated. When carbon dioxide is added to the atmosphere, within days, the increased absorption of longwave radiation begins to warm the interior of the troposphere, affecting various tropospheric properties. Especially in the case of aerosols, it has been found that considering rapid tropospheric adjustment gives a better predictor of "equilibrium" climate change than does the classic definition of radiative forcing. Biogeochemistry also provides additional feedbacks on the climate system. It is generally thought that biogeochemistry helps diminish climate sensitivity to a carbon dioxide emission, since carbon dioxide tends to stimulate carbon dioxide uptake by land plants and the ocean. However, there is potential to destabilize carbon locked up in permafrost and at least some possibility to destabilize methane in continental shelf sediments. Furthermore, wetlands may provide a significant methane feedback. These and other possible biogeochemical feedbacks have the potential to greatly increase the sensitivity of the climate system to carbon dioxide emissions. As time scales extend out to millennia, the large ice sheets can begin to play an important role. In addition to affecting atmospheric flows by their sheer bulk, ice sheets tend to reflect a lot of energy to space. If carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere long enough, there is potential to melt back the large ice sheets, which would add additional warming to the climate system. It is likely that these millennial

  15. Historical anthropogenic radiative forcing of changes in biogenic secondary aerosol

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Acosta Navarro, Juan; D'Andrea, Stephen; Pierce, Jeffrey; Ekman, Annica; Struthers, Hamish; Zorita, Eduardo; Guenther, Alex; Arneth, Almut; Smolander, Sampo; Kaplan, Jed; Farina, Salvatore; Scott, Catherine; Rap, Alexandru; Farmer, Delphine; Spracklen, Domink; Riipinen, Ilona

    2016-04-01

    Human activities have lead to changes in the energy balance of the Earth and the global climate. Changes in atmospheric aerosols are the second largest contributor to climate change after greenhouse gases since 1750 A.D. Land-use practices and other environmental drivers have caused changes in the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) well before 1750 A.D, possibly causing climate effects through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. Two numerical emission models LPJ-GUESS and MEGAN were used to quantify the changes in aerosol forming BVOC emissions in the past millennium. A chemical transport model of the atmosphere (GEOS-Chem-TOMAS) was driven with those BVOC emissions to quantify the effects on radiation caused by millennial changes in SOA. We found that global isoprene emissions decreased after 1800 A.D. by about 12% - 15%. This decrease was dominated by losses of natural vegetation, whereas monoterpene and sesquiterpene emissions increased by about 2% - 10%, driven mostly by rising surface air temperatures. From 1000 A.D. to 1800 A.D, isoprene, monoterpene and sesquiterpene emissions decline by 3% - 8% driven by both, natural vegetation losses, and the moderate global cooling between the medieval climate anomaly and the little ice age. The millennial reduction in BVOC emissions lead to a 0.5% to 2% reduction in climatically relevant aerosol particles (> 80 nm) and cause a direct radiative forcing between +0.02 W/m² and +0.07 W/m², and an indirect radiative forcing between -0.02 W/m² and +0.02 W/m².

  16. Trends of measured climate forcing agents

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko

    2001-01-01

    The growth rate of climate forcing by measured greenhouse gases peaked near 1980 at almost 5 W/m2 per century. This growth rate has since declined to ≈3 W/m2 per century, largely because of cooperative international actions. We argue that trends can be reduced to the level needed for the moderate “alternative” climate scenario (≈2 W/m2 per century for the next 50 years) by means of concerted actions that have other benefits, but the forcing reductions are not automatic “co-benefits” of actions that slow CO2 emissions. Current trends of climate forcings by aerosols remain very uncertain. Nevertheless, practical constraints on changes in emission levels suggest that global warming at a rate +0.15 ± 0.05°C per decade will occur over the next several decades. PMID:11752424

  17. Trends of Measured Climate Forcing Agents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The growth rate of climate forcing by measured greenhouse gases peaked near 1980 at almost 5 W/sq m per century. This growth rate has since declined to approximately equal to 3 W/sq m per century, largely because of cooperative international actions. We argue that trends can be reduced to the level needed for the moderate "alternative" climate scenario (approximately equal to 2 W/M2 per century for the next 50 years) by means of concerted actions that have other benefits, but the forcing reductions are not automatic "co-benefits" of actions that slow CO2 emissions. Current trends of climate forcings by aerosols remain very uncertain. Nevertheless, practical constraints on changes in emission levels suggest that global warming at a rate + 0.15 +/- 0.05 C per decade will occur over the next several decades.

  18. Have tropospheric aerosol emissions contributed to the recent climate hiatus?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kühn, Thomas; Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Laakso, Anton; Lu, Zifeng; Bergman, Tommi; Mikkonen, Santtu; Kokkola, Harri; Korhonen, Hannele; Räisänen, Petri; Streets, David G.; Romakkaniemi, Sami; Laaksonen, Ari

    2014-05-01

    During the last 15 years global warming has slowed considerably, with the resulting plateau in global temperature records being dubbed the climate hiatus. Apart from variations in solar irradiance and ocean temperature, increased anthropogenic aerosol emissions in South and East Asia have been suggested as possible causes for this hiatus. While European and and North American aerosol emissions have constantly decreased since the 1980's, emissions in China and India have started increasing at the same time and, although total global aerosol emissions have decreased, aerosol effects on the global energy budget are expected to enhance towards the equator due to stronger irradiance there. In this study we used the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM2 to assess the effect that this re-distribution of anthropogenic aerosol emissions towards the equator may have on climate. To this end, we computed radiative forcing and equilibrium temperature response due to the change in global aerosol emissions (black carbon (BC), organic carbon and sulphur dioxide) between 1996 and 2010, keeping all other anthropogenic influences fixed. Surprisingly we found that the cooling due the increased aerosol emissions in China and India is almost negligible compared to the warming caused by the decreasing aerosol emissions in Europe and North America. The radiative flux perturbation (RFP; includes aerosol indirect effects) was 0.42 W/m2 and the change in global equilibrium 2 m temperature increased by 0.25 °C. The lack of cooling in China and India stems from a cancellation of sulfate cooling and BC warming, especially over China. There, the strong cloud cover leads to both attenuation of sulphate aerosol light scattering and saturation tendency of indirect aerosol effects on clouds. BC levels on the other hand increase also above the clouds (relative increase of BC levels is almost uniform with height), leading to warming through light absorption.

  19. Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing Derived from Sea WiFS-Inferred Aerosol Optical Properties

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chou, Ming-Dah; Chan, Pui-King; Wang, Menghua

    1999-01-01

    Aerosol optical properties inferred from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) radiance measurements are used to compute the aerosol shortwave radiative forcing using a radiative transfer model. The aerosol optical thickness at the wavelength of 865-nm is taken from the SeaWIFS archive. It is found that the nominal optical thickness over oceans ranges from 0.1 to 0.2. Using a maritime aerosol model and the radiances measured at the various SeaWiFS channels, the Angstrom exponent is determined to be 0.2174, the single-scattering albedo to be 0.995, and the asymmetry factor to be 0.786. The radiative transfer model has eight bands in the visible and ultraviolet spectral regions and three bands in the near infrared. It includes the absorption due to aerosols, water vapor, carbon dioxide, and oxygen, and the scattering due to aerosols and gases (Rayleigh scattering). The radiative forcing is computed over global oceans for four months (January, April, July, and October, 1998) to represent four seasons. It is found that the aerosol radiative forcing is large and changes significantly with seasons near the continents with large-scale forest fires and desert dust. Averaged over oceans and the four months, the aerosol radiative forcing is approximately 7 W/sq m at the top of the atmosphere. This large radiative forcing is expected to have a significant cooling effect on the Earth's climate as implied from simulations of a number of general circulation models.

  20. Sensitivity of Homogeneous Freezing to Aerosol Perturbation and Implication for Aerosol Indirect Forcing through Cirrus Clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, X.; Shi, X.; Zhang, K.

    2014-12-01

    The susceptibility of cloud properties to aerosol perturbation is critical for the aerosol-cloud-climate interactions. Burdens of aerosols such as sulfate have substantially increased from preindustrial time to present-day. However, it is still not clear whether the number of ice crystals (Ni) resulting from homogeneous freezing of sulfate solution droplets is sensitive to the change in sulfate number concentration (Na) in the upper troposphere. Some cloud parcel modeling studies show that Ni is insensitive to Na (Kärcher and Lohmann, 2002; Kay and Wood, 2008), while others show moderate sensitivity of Ni to Na (Liu and Penner, 2005; Barahona and Nenes, 2008). The poorly understood cirrus cloud processes lead to large uncertainties in ice nucleation parameterizations in global climate models, with implications for climate change studies. In this study, we examine the sensitivity of Ni from homogeneous freezing to Na with a cloud parcel model running at different input aerosol and cloud conditions and under different model assumptions. By these sensitivity tests, we are able to reconcile the contrasting results from previous studies on the sensitivity of Ni to Na. Furthermore, the implications of these results on aerosol indirect forcing through ice clouds are quantified by comparing three ice nucleation parameterizations (Liu and Penner, 2005; Barahona and Nenes, 2008; Kärcher and Lohmann, 2002) implemented in the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5). The global and annual mean longwave aerosol indirect forcing through cirrus clouds ranges from -0.03 (Kärcher and Lohmann, 2002) to ~0.3 W m-2 (Liu and Penner, 2005; Barahona and Nenes, 2008). Future studies should quantify the occurrence frequency of homogeneous nucleation in the upper troposphere and the relative contribution between homogeneous versus heterogeneous freezing to Ni in cirrus clouds to further narrow down the aerosol indirect forcing through cirrus clouds.

  1. The Indian ocean experiment: aerosol forcing obtained from satellite data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajeev, K.; Ramanathan, V.

    The tropical Indian Ocean provides an ideal and unique natural laboratory to observe and understand the role of anthropogenic aerosols in climate forcing. Since 1996, an international team of American, European and Indian scientists have been collecting aerosol, chemical and radiation data from ships and surface stations, which culminated in a multi-platform field experiment conducted during January to March of 1999. A persistent haze layer that spread over most of the northern Indian Ocean during wintertime was discovered. The layer, a complex mix of organics, black carbon, sulfates, nitrates and other species, subjects the lower atmosphere to a strong radiative heating and a larger reduction in the solar heating of the ocean. We present here the regional distribution of aerosols and the resulting clear sky aerosol radiative forcing at top-of-atmosphere (TOA) observed over the Indian Ocean during the winter months of 1997, 1998 and 1999 based on the aerosol optical depth (AOD) estimated using NOAA14-AVHRR and the TOA radiation budget data from CERES on board TRMM. Using the ratio of surface to TOA clear sky aerosol radiative forcing observed during the same period over the Indian Ocean island of Kaashidhoo (Satheesh and Ramanathan, 2000), the clear sky aerosol radiative forcing at the surface and the atmosphere are discussed. The regional maps of AVHRR derived AOD show abnormally large aerosol concentration during the winter of 1999 which is about 1.5 to 2 times larger than the AOD during the corresponding period of 1997 and 1998. A large latitudinal gradient in AOD is observed during all the three years of observation, with maximum AOD in the northern hemisphere. The diurnal mean clear sky aerosol forcing at TOA in the northern hemisphere Indian Ocean is in the range of -4 to -16 Wm -2 and had large spatio-temporal variations while in the southern hemisphere Indian Ocean it is in the range of 0 to -6Wm -2. The importance of integrating in-situ data with satellite

  2. A contribution of brown carbon aerosol to the aerosol light absorption and its radiative forcing in East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Rokjin J.; Kim, Minjoong J.; Jeong, Jaein I.; Youn, Daeok; Kim, Sangwoo

    2010-04-01

    Brown carbon aerosols were recently found to be ubiquitous and effectively absorb solar radiation. We use a 3-D global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) together with aircraft and ground based observations from the TRACE-P and the ACE-Asia campaigns to examine the contribution of brown carbon aerosol to the aerosol light absorption and its climatic implication over East Asia in spring 2001. We estimated brown carbon aerosol concentrations in the model using the mass ratio of brown carbon to black carbon (BC) aerosols based on measurements in China and Europe. The comparison of simulated versus observed aerosol light absorption showed that the model accounting for brown carbon aerosol resulted in a better agreement with the observations in East Asian-Pacific outflow. We then used the model results to compute the radiative forcing of brown carbon, which amounts up to -2.4 W m -2 and 0.24 W m -2 at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), respectively, over East Asia. Mean radiative forcing of brown carbon aerosol is -0.43 W m -2 and 0.05 W m -2 at the surface and at the TOA, accounting for about 15% of total radiative forcing (-2.2 W m -2 and 0.33 W m -2) by absorbing aerosols (BC + brown carbon aerosol), having a significant climatic implication in East Asia.

  3. Inhomogeneous Forcing and Transient Climate Sensitivity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shindell, Drew T.

    2014-01-01

    Understanding climate sensitivity is critical to projecting climate change in response to a given forcing scenario. Recent analyses have suggested that transient climate sensitivity is at the low end of the present model range taking into account the reduced warming rates during the past 10-15 years during which forcing has increased markedly. In contrast, comparisons of modelled feedback processes with observations indicate that the most realistic models have higher sensitivities. Here I analyse results from recent climate modelling intercomparison projects to demonstrate that transient climate sensitivity to historical aerosols and ozone is substantially greater than the transient climate sensitivity to CO2. This enhanced sensitivity is primarily caused by more of the forcing being located at Northern Hemisphere middle to high latitudes where it triggers more rapid land responses and stronger feedbacks. I find that accounting for this enhancement largely reconciles the two sets of results, and I conclude that the lowest end of the range of transient climate response to CO2 in present models and assessments (less than 1.3 C) is very unlikely.

  4. Radiative forcing under mixed aerosol conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    GarcíA, O. E.; Expósito, F. J.; DíAz, J. P.; DíAz, A. M.

    2011-01-01

    The mixture of mineral dust with biomass burning or urban-industrial aerosols presents significant differences in optical properties when compared to those of the individual constituents, leading to different impacts on solar radiation levels. This effect is assessed by estimating the direct radiative forcing (ΔF) of these aerosols from solar flux models using the radiative parameters derived from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). These data reveal that, in oceanic and vegetative covers (surface albedo (SA) < 0.30), the aerosol effect at the top of atmosphere (TOA) is always cooling the Earth-atmosphere system, regardless of the aerosol type. The obtained average values of ΔF range between -27 ± 15 Wm-2 (aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 0.55 μm, 0.3 ± 0.3) for mineral dust mixed with urban-industrial aerosols, registered in the East Asia region, and -34 ± 18 Wm-2 (AOD = 0.8 ± 0.4) for the mixture of the mineral dust and biomass burning particles, observed in the Central Africa region. In the intermediate SA range (0.30-0.50) the TOA radiative effect depends on the aerosol absorption properties. Thus, aerosols with single scattering albedo at 0.55 μm lower than ˜0.88 lead to a warming of the system, with ΔF of 10 ± 11 Wm-2 for the mixture of mineral dust and biomass burning. Cases with SA > 0.30 are not present in East Asia region. At the bottom of atmosphere (BOA) the maximum ΔF values are associated with the highest AOD levels obtained for the mixture of mineral dust and biomass burning aerosols (-130 ± 44 Wm-2 with AOD = 0.8 ± 0.4 for SA < 0.30).

  5. Observational Constraint of Aerosol Effects on the CMIP5 Inter-model Spread of Adjusted Forcings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, J.; Wennberg, P. O.; Jiang, J. H.; Su, H.; Bordoni, S.

    2013-12-01

    The simulated global-mean temperature (GMT) change over the past 150 years is quite consistent across CMIP5 climate models and also consistent with the observations. However, the predicted future GMT under the identical CO2 forcing is divergent. This paradox is partly due to the errors in the predicted GMT produced by historical greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing being compensated by the parameterization of aerosol cloud radiative forcing. Historical increases in anthropogenic aerosols exert an overall (but highly uncertain) cooling effect in the climate system, which partially offsets the warming due to well mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs). Because aerosol concentrations are predicted to eventually decrease in future scenarios, climate change becomes dominated by warming due to the WMGHG. This change in the relative importance of forcing by aerosol versus WMGHG makes apparent the substantial differences in prediction of climate by WMGHG forcing. Here we investigate the role of aerosols in the context of adjusted forcing changes in the historical runs and the effect of aerosols on the cloud feedback. Our preliminary results suggest that models which are more sensitive to the increase in concentration of CO2 have a larger aerosol radiative cooling effect. By comparing the historicalMisc runs and historicalGHG runs, we find that aerosols exert a potential impact on the cloud adjusted forcings, especially shortwave cloud adjusted forcings. We use the CLIPSO, MISR and CERES data as the benchmark to evaluate the present aerosol simulations. Using satellite observations to assess the relative reliability of the different model responses and to constrain the simulated aerosol radiative forcing will contribute significantly to reducing the across model spread in future climate simulations and identifying some missing physical processes.

  6. Irrigation as an Historical Climate Forcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Shukla, Sonali P.; Puma, Michael J.; Nazarenko, Larissa S.

    2014-01-01

    Irrigation is the single largest anthropogenic water use, a modification of the land surface that significantly affects surface energy budgets, the water cycle, and climate. Irrigation, however, is typically not included in standard historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations along with other anthropogenic and natural forcings. To investigate the importance of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing, we conduct two 5-member ensemble GCM experiments. Both are setup identical to the historical forced (anthropogenic plus natural) scenario used in version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, but in one experiment we also add water to the land surface using a dataset of historically estimated irrigation rates. Irrigation has a negligible effect on the global average radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere, but causes significant cooling of global average surface air temperatures over land and dampens regional warming trends. This cooling is regionally focused and is especially strong in Western North America, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Asia. Irrigation enhances cloud cover and precipitation in these same regions, except for summer in parts of Monsoon Asia, where irrigation causes a reduction in monsoon season precipitation. Irrigation cools the surface, reducing upward fluxes of longwave radiation (increasing net longwave), and increases cloud cover, enhancing shortwave reflection (reducing net shortwave). The relative magnitude of these two processes causes regional increases (northern India) or decreases (Central Asia, China) in energy availability at the surface and top of the atmosphere. Despite these changes in net radiation, however, climate responses are due primarily to larger magnitude shifts in the Bowen ratio from sensible to latent heating. Irrigation impacts on temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables are regionally significant, even while other anthropogenic forcings (anthropogenic aerosols

  7. Irrigation as an historical climate forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Shukla, Sonali P.; Puma, Michael J.; Nazarenko, Larissa S.

    2015-03-01

    Irrigation is the single largest anthropogenic water use, a modification of the land surface that significantly affects surface energy budgets, the water cycle, and climate. Irrigation, however, is typically not included in standard historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations along with other anthropogenic and natural forcings. To investigate the importance of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing, we conduct two 5-member ensemble GCM experiments. Both are setup identical to the historical forced (anthropogenic plus natural) scenario used in version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, but in one experiment we also add water to the land surface using a dataset of historically estimated irrigation rates. Irrigation has a negligible effect on the global average radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere, but causes significant cooling of global average surface air temperatures over land and dampens regional warming trends. This cooling is regionally focused and is especially strong in Western North America, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Asia. Irrigation enhances cloud cover and precipitation in these same regions, except for summer in parts of Monsoon Asia, where irrigation causes a reduction in monsoon season precipitation. Irrigation cools the surface, reducing upward fluxes of longwave radiation (increasing net longwave), and increases cloud cover, enhancing shortwave reflection (reducing net shortwave). The relative magnitude of these two processes causes regional increases (northern India) or decreases (Central Asia, China) in energy availability at the surface and top of the atmosphere. Despite these changes in net radiation, however, climate responses are due primarily to larger magnitude shifts in the Bowen ratio from sensible to latent heating. Irrigation impacts on temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables are regionally significant, even while other anthropogenic forcings (anthropogenic aerosols

  8. Aerosol Radiative Forcing over North India during Pre-Monsoon Season using WRF-Chem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Misra, A.; Kumar, K.; Michael, M.; Tripathi, S. N.

    2013-12-01

    Study of aerosols is important for a fair understanding of the Earth climate system. This requires knowledge of the physical, chemical, optical, and morphological properties of aerosols. Aerosol radiative forcing provides information on the effect of aerosols on the Earth radiation budget. Radiative forcing estimates using model data provide an opportunity to examine the contribution of individual aerosol species to overall radiative forcing. We have used Weather Research and Forecast with Online Chemistry (WRF-Chem) derived aerosol concentration data to compute aerosol radiative forcing over north India during pre-monsoon season of 2008, 2009, and 2010. WRF-Chem derived mass concentrations are converted to number concentrations using standard procedure. Optical Properties of Aerosol and Cloud (OPAC) software package is used to compute extinction and scattering coefficients, and asymmetry parameter. Computations are performed at different altitudes and the obtained values are integrated to get the column optical properties. Santa Barbara Discrete Ordinate Radiative Transfer (SBDART) model is used to calculate the radiative forcing at surface and top-of-atmosphere. Higher values of aerosol radiative forcing are observed over desert region in western Indian state of Rajasthan, and Punjab of Pakistan. Contribution of individual aerosol species to atmospheric radiative forcing is also assessed. Dust radiative forcing is high over western India. Radiative forcing due to BC and water-soluble (WASO) aerosols are higher over north-west Indian states of Punjab and Haryana, and the Indo-Gangetic Basin. A pool of high WASO optical depth and radiative forcing is observed over the Indo-Bangladesh border. The findings of aerosol optical depth and radiative forcing are consistent with the geography and prevailing aerosol climatology of various regions. Heating rate profiles due to total aerosols and only due to BC have been evaluated at selected stations in north India. They show

  9. Climate Response to Soil Dust Aerosols.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, R. L.; Tegen, I.

    1998-12-01

    The effect of radiative forcing by soil dust aerosols upon climate is calculated. Two atmospheric GCM (AGCM) simulations are compared, one containing a prescribed seasonally varying concentration of dust aerosols, and the other omitting dust. Each simulation includes a mixed layer ocean model, which allows SST to change in response to the reduction in surface net radiation by dust. Dust aerosols reduce the surface net radiation both by absorbing and reflecting sunlight. For the optical properties of the dust particles assumed here, the reflection of sunlight is largely offset by the trapping of upwelling longwave radiation, so that the perturbation by dust to the net radiation gain at the top of the atmosphere is small in comparison to the surface reduction. Consequently, the radiative effect of soil dust aerosols is to redistribute heating from the surface to within the dust layer.Beneath the dust layer, surface temperature is reduced on the order of 1 K, typically in regions where deep convection is absent. In contrast, surface temperature remains unperturbed over the Arabian Sea during Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer, even though the dust concentration is highest in this region. It is suggested that the absence of cooling results from the negligible radiative forcing by dust at the top of the atmosphere, along with the frequent occurrence of deep convection, which ties the surface temperature to the unperturbed value at the emitting level.Where convection is absent, cooling at the surface occurs because radiative heating by dust reduces the rate of subsidence (and the corresponding mass exchange with the convecting region). Thus, the temperature contrast between these two regions must increase to maintain the original transport of energy, which is unperturbed by dust. It is suggested that cooling over the Arabian Sea during NH winter, despite the much smaller dust loading, is permitted by the absence of convection during this season. Thus, the change in surface

  10. Irrigation As an Historical Climate Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cook, B.; Puma, M. J.; McDermid, S. P.; Nazarenko, L.

    2014-12-01

    Irrigation is the single largest anthropogenic water use, a modification of the land surface that significantly affects surface energy budgets, the water cycle, and climate. Irrigation, however, is typically not included in standard historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations along with other anthropogenic and natural forcings. To investigate the importance of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing, we conduct two 5-member ensemble GCM experiments. Both are setup identical to the historical forced (anthropogenic plus natural) scenario used in version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, but in one experiment we also add water to the land surface using a dataset of historically estimated irrigation rates. Irrigation has a negligible effect on the global average radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere, but causes significant cooling of global average surface air temperatures over land and dampens regional warming trends. This cooling is regionally focused and is especially strong in Western North America, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Asia. Irrigation enhances cloud cover and precipitation in these same regions, except for summer in parts of Monsoon Asia, where irrigation causes a reduction in monsoon season precipitation. Irrigation cools the surface, reducing upward fluxes of longwave radiation (increasing net longwave), and increases cloud cover, enhancing shortwave reflection (reducing net shortwave). The relative magnitude of these two processes causes regional increases (northern India) or decreases (Central Asia, China) in energy availability at the surface and top of the atmosphere. Despite these changes in net radiation, however, climate responses are due primarily to larger magnitude shifts in the Bowen ratio from sensible to latent heating. Irrigation impacts on temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables are regionally significant, even while other anthropogenic forcings (anthropogenic aerosols

  11. On COBACC (COntinental Biosphere-Aerosol-Cloud-Climate) feedback

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kulmala, Markku

    2016-04-01

    Anthropogenic emissions of GHGs have increased substantially during the past century. Elevated concentrations of CO2 and methane are the most important forcing agents causing global warming. However, it is not straightforward to attribute or predict the climate change in detail, as the internal variability of climate is only partially understood, aerosol forcings are still highly uncertain, and there are many feedback mechanisms that are difficult to quantify. It has been recognized for decades that the biosphere plays an important role in climate. For example, Kulmala et al. (2004) suggested a negative climate feedback mechanism whereby higher temperatures and CO2-levels boost continental biomass production, leading to increased biogenic secondary organic aerosol (BSOA) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations, tending to cause cooling. This COBACC (COntinental Biosphere-Aerosol-Cloud-Climate) feedback is similar to the so-called CLAW-hypothesis by Charlson et al. (1987) which connects the ocean biochemistry and climate via a negative feedback loop involving CCN production due to sulphur emissions from plankton. The first quantification of the COBACC feedback loop (Kulmala et al. 2014) was based on continuous comprehensive observations at SMEAR II (Station for Measuring Forest Ecosystem-Atmosphere Relations) station in Hyytiälä, Finland, and showed that a 10 ppm increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration leads to a significant (several percent) increase in both carbon sink and aerosol source. These effects operate through changes in gross primary production, volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions and secondary aerosol formation associated with atmospheric oxidation of VOCs. Here we will describe the present knowledge from processes level understanding to whole COBACC feedback including some hints on biogenic and anthropogenic contributions to global aerosol number load. References: Charlson, R. J. et al. Nature 326, 655 1987 Kulmala, M. et al. Atmos

  12. OCS, stratospheric aerosols and climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Turco, R. P.; Whitten, R. C.; Toon, O. B.; Pollack, J. B.; Hamill, P.

    1980-01-01

    The carbonyl sulfide budget in the atmosphere is examined, and the effects of stratospheric sulfate aerosol particles, formed in part from atmospheric carbonyl sulfate, on global climate are considered. From tropospheric measurements of carbon disulfide and the rate constant for the conversion of carbon disulfide to carbonyl sulfide, it is estimated that five Tg of carbonyl sulfide/year could be generated from carbon disulfide in the atmosphere. Direct sources of OCS include the refining and combustion of fossil fuels (1 Tg/year), natural and agricultural fires (0.2 to 0.3 Tg/year), and soils (0.5 Tg/year), yielding a total influx of from 1 to 10 Tg/year, up to 50% of which may be anthropogenic. Considerations of carbonyl sulfide sinks and concentrations indicate an atmospheric lifetime of one year, with OCS the major atmospheric sulfur compound. It is estimated that a ten-fold increase in atmospheric carbonyl sulfide would cause an optical depth perturbation comparable to that of a modest volcanic eruption, leading to an average global surface temperature decrease of 0.1 K, in addition to a possible greenhouse effect.

  13. Aerosol radiative forcing in the European Skynet Radiometers network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Estelles, V.; Campanelli, M.; Expósito, F. J.; Utrillas, M. P.; Díaz, J. P.; Martínez-Lozano, J. A.

    2012-04-01

    The influence of the atmospheric aerosols is one of the most important factors of the Earth climate system and, despite of our present understanding have increased in last years, they are still one of the largest unknown variables. In fact, recently, the total anthropogenic radiative effect on global scale was estimated to be +1.6 (-1.0 to +0.8) Wm-2, of which -0.5 (±0.4) Wm-2 are associated to the direct radiative forcing of the atmospheric aerosols. In order to reduce the current uncertainties of the direct aerosol forcing it is important to accurately determine the aerosol effect by combining modeling techniques with experimental radiation and aerosol measurements. To model the radiative effect of the aerosols, atmospheric radiative transfer models are applied, such as SBDART (Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer), GAME (Global Atmospheric Model), MODTRAN (Moderate resolution atmospheric Transmission) and RSTAR. With these models, the direct aerosol radiative forcing at ground and top of atmosphere levels is estimated as the difference between the energy flux for an atmosphere with/without aerosols. To estimate the accuracy of the models, the modeled global, diffuse and direct solar radiation at ground level is compared with experimental measurements. To characterize the aerosol properties, sun-sky radiometric measurements at ground level are also needed, usually from systems such as Cimel CE318 or Prede POM. In last years, a good amount of such studies have been performed for different areas of the world. One of the most promising efforts comes from the AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network). AERONET is an international operative network of Cimel CE318 sky-sunphotometers that provides the most extensive aerosol database globally available. García et al. (2008) already validated the AERONET direct aerosol forcing methodology with solar radiation measurements from the SolRad-Net (Solar Radiation Network) and BSRN (Baseline Solar Ratiation Network) for

  14. Aerosol Properties and Radiative Forcing over Kanpur during Severe Aerosol Loading Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Kaskaoutis, D. G.; Sinha, P. R.; Vinoj, V.; Kosmopoulos, P. G.; Tripathi, S. N.; Misra, Amit; Sharma, M.; Singh, R. P.

    2013-11-01

    Atmospheric aerosols over India exhibit large spatio-temporal fluctuation driven by the local monsoon system, emission rates and seasonally-changed air masses. The northern part of India is well-known for its high aerosol loading throughout the year due to anthropogenic emissions, dust influence and biomass burning. On certain circumstances and, under favorable weather conditions, the aerosol load can be severe, causing significant health concerns and climate implications. The present work analyzes the aerosol episode (AE) days and examines the modification in aerosol properties and radiative forcing during the period 2001-2010 based on Kanpur-AERONET sun photometer data. As AEs are considered the days having daily-mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) above the decadal mean + 1 STD (standard deviation); the threshold value is defined at 0.928. The results identify 277 out of 2095 days (13.2%) of AEs over Kanpur, which are most frequently observed during post-monsoon (78 cases, 18.6%) and monsoon (76, 14.7%) seasons due to biomass-burning episodes and dust influence, respectively. On the other hand, the AEs in winter and pre-monsoon are lower in both absolute and percentage values (65, 12.5% and 58, 9.1%, respectively). The modification in aerosol properties on the AE days is strongly related to season. Thus, in post-monsoon and winter the AEs are associated with enhanced presence of fine-mode aerosols and Black Carbon from anthropogenic pollution and any kind of burning, while in pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons they are mostly associated with transported dust. Aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) calculated using SBDART shows much more surface (~-69 to -97 Wm-2) and Top of Atmosphere cooling (-20 to -30 Wm-2) as well as atmospheric heating (~43 to 71 Wm-2) during the AE days compared to seasonal means. These forcing values are mainly controlled by the higher AODs and the modified aerosol characteristics (Angstrom α, SSA) during the AE days in each season and may cause

  15. A Physically-Based Estimate of Radiative Forcing by Anthropogenic Sulfate Aerosol

    SciTech Connect

    Ghan, Steven J.); Easter, Richard C.); Chapman, Elaine G.); Abdul-Razzak, Hayder; Zhang, Yang ); Leung, Ruby ); Laulainen, Nels S.); Saylor, Rick D.); Zaveri, Rahul A.)

    2001-04-01

    Estimates of direct and indirect radiative forcing by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols from an integrated global aerosol and climate modeling system are presented. A detailed global tropospheric chemistry and aerosol model that predicts concentrations of oxidants as well as aerosols and aerosol precursors, is coupled to a general circulation model that predicts both cloud water mass and cloud droplet number. Both number and mass of several externally-mixed aerosol size modes are predicted, with internal mixing assumed for the different aerosol components within each mode. Predicted aerosol species include sulfate, organic and black carbon, soil dust, and sea salt. The models use physically-based treatments of aerosol radiative properties (including dependence on relative humidity) and aerosol activation as cloud condensation nuclei. Parallel simulations with and without anthropogenic sulfate aerosol are performed for a global domain. The global and annual mean direct and indirect radiative forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate are estimated to be -0.3 to -0.5 and -1.5 to -3.0 W m-2, respectively. The radiative forcing is sensitive to the model's horizontal resolution, the use of predicted vs. analyzed relative humidity, the prediction vs. diagnosis of aerosol number and droplet number, and the parameterization of droplet collision/coalescence. About half of the indirect radiative forcing is due to changes in droplet radius and half to increased cloud liquid water.

  16. On the relationship between aerosol model uncertainty and radiative forcing uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Lindsay A.; Reddington, Carly L.; Carslaw, Kenneth S.

    2016-05-01

    The largest uncertainty in the historical radiative forcing of climate is caused by the interaction of aerosols with clouds. Historical forcing is not a directly measurable quantity, so reliable assessments depend on the development of global models of aerosols and clouds that are well constrained by observations. However, there has been no systematic assessment of how reduction in the uncertainty of global aerosol models will feed through to the uncertainty in the predicted forcing. We use a global model perturbed parameter ensemble to show that tight observational constraint of aerosol concentrations in the model has a relatively small effect on the aerosol-related uncertainty in the calculated forcing between preindustrial and present-day periods. One factor is the low sensitivity of present-day aerosol to natural emissions that determine the preindustrial aerosol state. However, the major cause of the weak constraint is that the full uncertainty space of the model generates a large number of model variants that are equally acceptable compared to present-day aerosol observations. The narrow range of aerosol concentrations in the observationally constrained model gives the impression of low aerosol model uncertainty. However, these multiple “equifinal” models predict a wide range of forcings. To make progress, we need to develop a much deeper understanding of model uncertainty and ways to use observations to constrain it. Equifinality in the aerosol model means that tuning of a small number of model processes to achieve model‑observation agreement could give a misleading impression of model robustness.

  17. On the relationship between aerosol model uncertainty and radiative forcing uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Lee, Lindsay A; Reddington, Carly L; Carslaw, Kenneth S

    2016-05-24

    The largest uncertainty in the historical radiative forcing of climate is caused by the interaction of aerosols with clouds. Historical forcing is not a directly measurable quantity, so reliable assessments depend on the development of global models of aerosols and clouds that are well constrained by observations. However, there has been no systematic assessment of how reduction in the uncertainty of global aerosol models will feed through to the uncertainty in the predicted forcing. We use a global model perturbed parameter ensemble to show that tight observational constraint of aerosol concentrations in the model has a relatively small effect on the aerosol-related uncertainty in the calculated forcing between preindustrial and present-day periods. One factor is the low sensitivity of present-day aerosol to natural emissions that determine the preindustrial aerosol state. However, the major cause of the weak constraint is that the full uncertainty space of the model generates a large number of model variants that are equally acceptable compared to present-day aerosol observations. The narrow range of aerosol concentrations in the observationally constrained model gives the impression of low aerosol model uncertainty. However, these multiple "equifinal" models predict a wide range of forcings. To make progress, we need to develop a much deeper understanding of model uncertainty and ways to use observations to constrain it. Equifinality in the aerosol model means that tuning of a small number of model processes to achieve model-observation agreement could give a misleading impression of model robustness. PMID:26848136

  18. On the relationship between aerosol model uncertainty and radiative forcing uncertainty

    PubMed Central

    Reddington, Carly L.; Carslaw, Kenneth S.

    2016-01-01

    The largest uncertainty in the historical radiative forcing of climate is caused by the interaction of aerosols with clouds. Historical forcing is not a directly measurable quantity, so reliable assessments depend on the development of global models of aerosols and clouds that are well constrained by observations. However, there has been no systematic assessment of how reduction in the uncertainty of global aerosol models will feed through to the uncertainty in the predicted forcing. We use a global model perturbed parameter ensemble to show that tight observational constraint of aerosol concentrations in the model has a relatively small effect on the aerosol-related uncertainty in the calculated forcing between preindustrial and present-day periods. One factor is the low sensitivity of present-day aerosol to natural emissions that determine the preindustrial aerosol state. However, the major cause of the weak constraint is that the full uncertainty space of the model generates a large number of model variants that are equally acceptable compared to present-day aerosol observations. The narrow range of aerosol concentrations in the observationally constrained model gives the impression of low aerosol model uncertainty. However, these multiple “equifinal” models predict a wide range of forcings. To make progress, we need to develop a much deeper understanding of model uncertainty and ways to use observations to constrain it. Equifinality in the aerosol model means that tuning of a small number of model processes to achieve model−observation agreement could give a misleading impression of model robustness. PMID:26848136

  19. The Importance of Water Uptake by Aerosols in the Climate Change Problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramaswamy, V.; Ginoux, P.; Randles, C.; Schwarzkopf, M. D.

    2007-12-01

    It is well understood that aerosol species have and are continuing to play a central role in the radiative forcing of the climate system. While the role of single-scattering properties of aerosols on climate is generally well- recognized, a key factor that governs the aerosol optical property viz., the hygroscopic growth has received insufficient attention particularly in terms of its role in the climatic impacts due to aerosols. A sensitivity investigation is performed that quantitatively highlights the consequence of the growth of sea-salt-organic carbon mixtures for radiative forcing. Next, we employ the GFDL coupled atmosphere-ocean model to study specifically the aerosol radiative forcing and climate response arising due to the hygroscopic features of sulfate aerosols as they have increased from preindustrial to present-day. We make use of observations of optical depth and surface concentrations to evaluate the reliability of the simulated hygroscopic growth. Regional climate responses in Europe, Asia and Africa are examined, with a focus on temperature, hydrological cycle and surface energy budgets. The importance of hygroscopicity in the climate change problem is put in perspective by comparing the climatic effects with those due to aerosol absorption as well as with those caused by the infrared-absorbing long- lived greenhouse gases. Further, we explore the climate consequence arising from the scenarios of the future emissions of aerosols and the associated hygroscopicity effects.

  20. Aerosol radiative forcing over land: effect of surface and cloud reflection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satheesh, S. K.

    2002-12-01

    It is now clearly understood that atmospheric aerosols have a significant impact on climate due to their important role in modifying the incoming solar and outgoing infrared radiation. The question of whether aerosol cools (negative forcing) or warms (positive forcing) the planet depends on the relative dominance of absorbing aerosols. Recent investigations over the tropical Indian Ocean have shown that, irrespective of the comparatively small percentage contribution in optical depth ( ~ 11%), soot has an important role in the overall radiative forcing. However, when the amount of absorbing aerosols such as soot are significant, aerosol optical depth and chemical composition are not the only determinants of aerosol climate effects, but the altitude of the aerosol layer and the altitude and type of clouds are also important. In this paper, the aerosol forcing in the presence of clouds and the effect of different surface types (ocean, soil, vegetation, and different combinations of soil and vegetation) are examined based on model simulations, demonstrating that aerosol forcing changes sign from negative (cooling) to positive (warming) when reflection from below (either due to land or clouds) is high.

  1. Spatial distributions and seasonal cycles of aerosol climate effects in India seen in a global climate-aerosol model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henriksson, S. V.; Pietikäinen, J.-P.; Hyvärinen, A.-P.; Räisänen, P.; Kupiainen, K.; Tonttila, J.; Hooda, R.; Lihavainen, H.; O'Donnell, D.; Backman, L.; Klimont, Z.; Laaksonen, A.

    2014-09-01

    Climate-aerosol interactions in India are studied by employing the global climate-aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM and the GAINS inventory for anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Model validation is done for black carbon surface concentrations in Mukteshwar and for features of the monsoon circulation. Seasonal cycles and spatial distributions of radiative forcing and the temperature and rainfall responses are presented for different model setups. While total aerosol radiative forcing is strongest in the summer, anthropogenic forcing is considerably stronger in winter than in summer. Local seasonal temperature anomalies caused by aerosols are mostly negative with some exceptions, e.g., parts of northern India in March-May. Rainfall increases due to the elevated heat pump (EHP) mechanism and decreases due to solar dimming mechanisms (SDMs) and the relative strengths of these effects during different seasons and for different model setups are studied. Aerosol light absorption does increase rainfall in northern India, but effects due to solar dimming and circulation work to cancel the increase. The total aerosol effect on rainfall is negative for northern India in the months of June-August, but during March-May the effect is positive for most model setups. These differences between responses in different seasons might help converge the ongoing debate on the EHPs and SDMs. Due to the complexity of the problem and known or potential sources for error and bias, the results should be interpreted cautiously as they are completely dependent on how realistic the model is. Aerosol-rainfall correlations and anticorrelations are shown not to be a reliable sole argument for deducing causality.

  2. Similarities in large-scale pattern of precipitation responses to aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, S.; Lu, B.; Xiang, B.

    2013-12-01

    Developing reliable regional projections for mitigation and adaptation is an emerging challenge for climate change research. Important for regional changes in tropical cyclone, precipitation, and monsoon are spatial patterns of ocean warming. Localized in space, anthropogenic aerosol forcing is considered to induce patterns of climate response distinct from well-mixed greenhouse gases. Using a multi-model ensemble, we show that regional changes in ocean temperature and precipitation are remarkably similar between greenhouse gas and aerosol experiments. This suggests a global ocean-atmosphere mode with spatial patterns common to radiative-induced climate change and relatively insensitive to forcing distribution. While the aerosol forcing is largely confined to the Northern Hemisphere, its climate effect reaches pristine Southern Hemisphere oceans, including decreased temperature and decelerated westerly winds. Ocean-atmosphere interaction spreads the effect of localized forcing around the globe, leaving distinctive patterns on the way. We show that the greenhouse gas- and aerosol-induced climate responses share key ocean-atmospheric feedback, explaining their spatial resemblance. Tropospheric temperature response, homogenized within the tropics and insensitive to forcing distribution, is suggested to be a key mechanism. While large uncertainties remain in microphysics, our results show that there are robust macro-structures in climate response to aerosol forcing.

  3. Observationally constrained estimates of carbonaceous aerosol radiative forcing.

    PubMed

    Chung, Chul E; Ramanathan, V; Decremer, Damien

    2012-07-17

    Carbonaceous aerosols (CA) emitted by fossil and biomass fuels consist of black carbon (BC), a strong absorber of solar radiation, and organic matter (OM). OM scatters as well as absorbs solar radiation. The absorbing component of OM, which is ignored in most climate models, is referred to as brown carbon (BrC). Model estimates of the global CA radiative forcing range from 0 to 0.7 Wm(-2), to be compared with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's estimate for the pre-Industrial to the present net radiative forcing of about 1.6 Wm(-2). This study provides a model-independent, observationally based estimate of the CA direct radiative forcing. Ground-based aerosol network data is integrated with field data and satellite-based aerosol observations to provide a decadal (2001 through 2009) global view of the CA optical properties and direct radiative forcing. The estimated global CA direct radiative effect is about 0.75 Wm(-2) (0.5 to 1.0). This study identifies the global importance of BrC, which is shown to contribute about 20% to 550-nm CA solar absorption globally. Because of the inclusion of BrC, the net effect of OM is close to zero and the CA forcing is nearly equal to that of BC. The CA direct radiative forcing is estimated to be about 0.65 (0.5 to about 0.8) Wm(-2), thus comparable to or exceeding that by methane. Caused in part by BrC absorption, CAs have a net warming effect even over open biomass-burning regions in Africa and the Amazon. PMID:22753522

  4. Past and Future Climate Forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven J. )

    2001-10-01

    Climate change is again in the news. The failure of the recent sixth meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) to agree on terms for the Kyoto Protocol the future of climate policy remains uncertain. It is important to be clear on where efforts need to be focused (in addition to how much effort is required, which would require a separate discussion). The recent paper by Hansen et al. has created some debate and controversy along these lines. In this paper, the authors argue that recent climate changes have been caused largely by non-CO2 greenhouse gases and that climate change over the next fifty years can be limited by focusing not only on carbon dioxide but on non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols. This paper will present an overview of these issues. A few of these points were also discussed in a recent commentary in Science magazine and are not repeated at length here. The discussion below will first address attribution of past climate changes, the radiatively important substances that will drive future climate change, and the mitigation of climate change.Journal name is WRONG. Interface does not allow me to type in correct name. Correct name should be''Physics and Society''.

  5. Aerosol Indirect Forcing Dictated by Warm Low-Cloud

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christensen, M.; Chen, Y. C.; Stephens, G. L.

    2014-12-01

    observations of deep convective clouds. Overall, marine warm low-cloud largely govern the aerosol indirect forcing due to its strong sensitivity. Given the significantly weaker sensitivities amongst other cloud regimes it is imperative to incorporate them to improve estimates of the overall strength of the aerosol indirect effect on climate.

  6. Aerosol Radiative Forcing Derived From SeaWIFS - Retrieved Aerosol Optical Properties

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chou, Mong-Dah; Chan, Pui-King; Wang, Menghua; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    To understand climatic implications of aerosols over global oceans, the aerosol optical properties retrieved from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) are analyzed, and the effects of the aerosols on the Earth's radiation budgets (aerosol radiative forcing, ARF) are computed using a radiative transfer model. It is found that the distribution of the SeaWiFS-retrieved aerosol optical thickness is distinctively zonal. The maximum in the equatorial region coincides with the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and the maximum in the Southern Hemispheric high latitudes coincides with the region of prevailing westerlies. The minimum aerosol optical thickness is found in the subtropical high pressure regions, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. These zonal patterns clearly demonstrate the influence of atmospheric circulation on the oceanic aerosol distribution. Over global oceans, aerosols reduce the annual mean net downward solar flux by 5.4 W m-2 at the top of the atmosphere and by 6.1 W m-2 at the surface. The largest ARF is found in the tropical Atlantic, Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, the coastal regions of Southeast and East Asia, and the Southern Hemispheric high latitudes. During the period of the Indonesian big fires (September-December 1997), the cooling due to aerosols is greater than 15 W m-2 at the top of the atmosphere and greater than 30 W m(exp -1) at the surface in the vicinity of the maritime continents. The atmosphere receives extra solar radiation by greater than 15 W m(exp -1) over a large area. These large changes in radiative fluxes are expected to have enhanced the atmospheric stability, weakened the atmospheric circulation, and augmented the drought condition during that period. It would be very instructive to simulate the regional climatic. The model-calculated clear sky solar flux at the top of the atmosphere is compared with that derived from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES). The net downward solar flux of

  7. Aerosol and cloud forcing in the Indo-Gangetic plain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dey, S.; Tripathi, S. N.

    2006-12-01

    Aerosol and cloud direct radiative forcings are investigated in the Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) for a 5-year time period (Jan 2001-Dec 2005) using ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data for the first time. Aerosol optical properties (aerosol optical depth (AOD) spectra, single scattering albedo, SSA, asymmetry parameter) from AERONET along with cloud parameters (cloud optical depth, COD and cloud effective radius, Reff) derived from MODIS are incorporated in SBDART radiative transfer model to estimate the clear sky (FCLR) and cloudy-sky (FCLO) forcing for the whole time period in the shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) regions at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and surface (S). Whenever AERONET data are unavailable for the optical properties, we have used OPAC model to simulate SSA and g to fill in the data gaps. SW FCLR,TOA/S show strong seasonal variability with TOA forcing flipping to even positive sign in some months. In the winter season, although black carbon contributes to only 11% to the AOD, its contribution to the FCLR,S is 33%. Large difference between TOA and S forcing (>25 W m-2) leads to strong atmospheric heating in the region. Annual mean heating rate is ~0.9 K day-1 with highest value observed in the monsoon season, which could significantly affect the long-term regional hydrological cycle. The SW atmospheric heating is partly compensated by LW cooling in the winter season only, whereas in the other seasons, LW forcing adds to the atmospheric heating. Aerosols reduce surface-reaching solar radiation by 20-30% in the IGP. The variability of cloud parameters in the IGP is less as compared to that over oceans, but cloud fraction varies in a wide range (0.08-0.99) during the time period, which ultimately changes the TOA and S forcing significantly, particularly in the monsoon season. The detailed results of the aerosol and cloud radiative forcing and their implications in modifying the

  8. Aerosol direct radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere based on satellite remote sensing over China Seas: a preliminary study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, Zengzhou; Pan, Delu; Gong, Fang

    2010-09-01

    Radiative forcing as an index of climate change can reflect the relative effect of climate factors. To understand climatic implications of aerosols over the China Seas, the aerosol direct radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere (TOA) is computed using three-year collocated Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) radiation fluxes and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical thickness data on the platform Terra. The upward radiation flux for clear skies is a key for the aerosol radiative forcing at the TOA. A linear relationship is found between the solar radiation fluxes at the TOA from CERES and the aerosol optical thickness is at 550 nm from MODIS over the China Seas. In a linear regression Eq., the intercept for zero aerosol optical thickness is the radiation flux at the TOA for clear skies. Based on the definition of the aerosol direct radiative forcing at TOA and the diurnal correction factor from a simulated radiative forcing using radiation transfer model, the daily averaged aerosol direct radiative forcing at the TOA is estimated and its seasonal variations over the cloud-free China Seas are presented. In total, the aerosol radiative forcing over the China Seas is negative. It implies that the aerosol over the China Seas is mainly a cooling effect on climate change, which is opposite to the greenhouse effect. The largest aerosol radiative forcing is found in spring, while the smallest is in summer. The aerosol radiative forcing over the coastal region is always more than that in the open ocean in four seasons. The method in the study can be used for evaluation of the aerosols impact on global or region climate from satellite measurements.

  9. The Role of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols in Climate Mitigation

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven J.; Bond, Tami C.; Wigley, Tom M.; de la Chesnaye, Francisco; Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2003-11-17

    Forcing agents other than carbon dioxide, such as methane, nitrous oxide, halocarbons, and perhaps aerosol particles, may play a major role in mitigating climate change. Of these agents, methane is the most important greenhouse gas and has substantial mitigation potential. The role of black and organic carbon aerosols has attracted increasing interest and we explicitly include these carbonaceous aerosols in our calculations. This paper analyzes the potential role of different forcing agents in reducing future climate forcing in a multi-gas, integrated assessment model in which mitigation options compete and interact. Our framework includes all of the important atmospheric forcing agents: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, halocarbons, sulfur dioxide, and carbonaceous aerosols along with an array of potential mitigation options. Through an integrated analysis of all available options we present a realistic portrait of the potential role of these forcing agents in limiting future climate change.

  10. The Aerosol-Monsoon Climate System of Asia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kyu-Myong, Kim

    2012-01-01

    In Asian monsoon countries such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air-pollution are worsening due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants stemming from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash flood or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human lives, and damages in crop and properties with devastating societal impacts on Asian countries. Historically, air-pollution and monsoon research are treated as separate problems. However a growing number of recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically intertwined and need to be studied jointly. Because of complexity of the dynamics of the monsoon systems, aerosol impacts on monsoons and vice versa must be studied and understood in the context of aerosol forcing in relationship to changes in fundamental driving forces of the monsoon climate system (e.g. sea surface temperature, land-sea contrast etc.) on time scales from intraseasonal variability (weeks) to climate change ( multi-decades). Indeed, because of the large contributions of aerosols to the global and regional energy balance of the atmosphere and earth surface, and possible effects of the microphysics of clouds and precipitation, a better understanding of the response to climate change in Asian monsoon regions requires that aerosols be considered as an integral component of a fully coupled aerosol-monsoon system on all time scales. In this paper, using observations and results from climate modeling, we will discuss the coherent variability of the coupled aerosol-monsoon climate system in South Asia and East Asia, including aerosol distribution and types, with respect to rainfall, moisture, winds, land-sea thermal contrast, heat sources and sink distributions in the atmosphere in seasonal, interannual to climate change time scales. We will show examples of how elevated

  11. Assessment of climate sensitivity to the representation of aerosols in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watson, Laura; Michou, Martine; Nabat, Pierre; Saint-Martin, David

    2016-04-01

    Atmospheric aerosols can significantly affect the Earth's radiative balance due to absorption, scattering, and indirect effects upon the climate system. Although our understanding of aerosol properties has improved over recent decades, aerosol radiative forcing remains as one of the largest uncertainties when projecting future climate change. A coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model was used to perform sensitivity tests in order to investigate how the representation of aerosols within the model can affect decadal climate variability. These tests included looking at the difference between using constant emissions versus using emissions that evolve over a period of thirty years; examining the impacts of including indirect effects from sea salt and organics; altering the aerosol optical properties; and using an interactive aerosol scheme versus using 2-D climatologies. The results of these sensitivity tests show how modifying certain aspects of the aerosol scheme can significantly modify radiative flux and global surface temperature.

  12. Toward a New Era of Research in Aerosol/Cloud/Climate Interactions at LLNL

    SciTech Connect

    Chuang, C,; Dignon, J.; Grant, K.; Connell, P.; Bergman, D.; Rotman, D.; Wright, D.; McGraw, R.; Schwartz, S.

    2000-09-27

    One of the largest uncertainties in simulations of climate change over the industrial period is the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on the Earth's radiation budget. Much of this uncertainty arises from the limited capability for either precisely linking precursor gases to the formation and size distribution of the aerosols or quantitatively describing the existing levels of global aerosol loading. This project builds on our aerosol and chemistry expertise to address each of these uncertainties in a more quantitative fashion than is currently possible. With the current LDRD support, we are in the process to implement an aerosol microphysics module into our global chemistry model to more fundamentally and completely describe the processes that determine the distribution of atmospheric aerosols. Using this new modeling capability, in conjunction with the most current version of NCAR climate model, we will examine the influence of these processes on aerosol direct and indirect climate forcing.

  13. The impact of volcanic aerosol on the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex: mechanisms and sensitivity to forcing structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toohey, M.; Krüger, K.; Bittner, M.; Timmreck, C.; Schmidt, H.

    2014-06-01

    Observations and simple theoretical arguments suggest that the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex is stronger in winters following major volcanic eruptions. However, recent studies show that climate models forced by prescribed volcanic aerosol fields fail to reproduce this effect. We investigate the impact of volcanic aerosol forcing on stratospheric dynamics, including the strength of the NH polar vortex, in ensemble simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. The model is forced by four different prescribed forcing sets representing the radiative properties of stratospheric aerosol following the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo: two forcing sets are based on observations, and are commonly used in climate model simulations, and two forcing sets are constructed based on coupled aerosol-climate model simulations. For all forcings, we find that temperature and zonal wind anomalies in the NH high latitudes are not directly impacted by anomalous volcanic aerosol heating. Instead, high latitude effects result from robust enhancements in stratospheric residual circulation, which in turn result, at least in part, from enhanced stratospheric wave activity. High latitude effects are therefore much less robust than would be expected if they were the direct result of aerosol heating. While there is significant ensemble variability in the high latitude response to each aerosol forcing set, the mean response is sensitive to the forcing set used. Significant differences, for example, are found in the NH polar stratosphere temperature and zonal wind response to two different forcing data sets constructed from different versions of SAGE II aerosol observations. Significant strengthening of the polar vortex, in rough agreement with the expected response, is achieved only using aerosol forcing extracted from prior coupled aerosol-climate model simulations. Differences in the dynamical response to the different forcing sets used imply that reproducing

  14. Signatures of semi-direct radiative forcing by absorbing aerosols in satellite observations and models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilcox, E. M.; Hosseinpour, F.; Colarco, P. R.

    2014-12-01

    Semi-direct radiative forcing of climate occurs when interactions between aerosols and radiative fluxes in the atmosphere yield a dynamical response in clouds. Semi-direct forcing is typically thought to be a positive radiative forcing whereby soot and biomass burning aerosols absorb sunlight and burn-off clouds. However, a negative semi-direct forcing is suspected in at least two regimes, the summertime Southeast Atlantic Ocean and the wintertime North Indian Ocean, where the heating profile by aerosol absorption by solar radiation is elevated above the elevation of the low clouds. Here we use a combination of satellite data and a model simulation to further characterize the signature of semi-direct radiative forcing in these two locations and elsewhere on the globe. We apply CERES albedos, Calipso profiles of aerosol extinction and cloud-top altitude, and a simulation with the Goddard Earth Observing System Model version 5 (GEOS-5) Earth system model with meteorology constrained by MERRA and an assimilation of MODIS AOT (MERRAero). to quantify the vertical heating profile by aerosols under clear and cloudy skies. We seek to determine: (1) where aerosol heating by soot and biomass burning aerosol is occurring; (2) where vertically in the column the heating is occurring relative to the observed level of low cloud development; and (3) whether the variations of albedo with aerosol forcing suggest a positive, negative, or inconclusive semi-direct radiative forcing.

  15. Total aerosol effect: forcing or radiative flux perturbation?

    SciTech Connect

    Lohmann, Ulrike; Storelvmo, Trude; Jones, Andy; Rotstayn, Leon; Menon, Surabi; Quaas, Johannes; Ekman, Annica; Koch, Dorothy; Ruedy, Reto

    2009-09-25

    Uncertainties in aerosol forcings, especially those associated with clouds, contribute to a large extent to uncertainties in the total anthropogenic forcing. The interaction of aerosols with clouds and radiation introduces feedbacks which can affect the rate of rain formation. Traditionally these feedbacks were not included in estimates of total aerosol forcing. Here we argue that they should be included because these feedbacks act quickly compared with the time scale of global warming. We show that for different forcing agents (aerosols and greenhouse gases) the radiative forcings as traditionally defined agree rather well with estimates from a method, here referred to as radiative flux perturbations (RFP), that takes these fast feedbacks and interactions into account. Thus we propose replacing the direct and indirect aerosol forcing in the IPCC forcing chart with RFP estimates. This implies that it is better to evaluate the total anthropogenic aerosol effect as a whole.

  16. Climatic effects of 1950-2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols - Part 2: Climate response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leibensperger, E. M.; Mickley, L. J.; Jacob, D. J.; Chen, W.-T.; Seinfeld, J. H.; Nenes, A.; Adams, P. J.; Streets, D. G.; Kumar, N.; Rind, D.

    2012-04-01

    We investigate the climate response to changing US anthropogenic aerosol sources over the 1950-2050 period by using the NASA GISS general circulation model (GCM) and comparing to observed US temperature trends. Time-dependent aerosol distributions are generated from the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model applied to historical emission inventories and future projections. Radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols peaked in 1970-1990 and has strongly declined since due to air quality regulations. We find that the regional radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols elicits a strong regional climate response, cooling the central and eastern US by 0.5-1.0 °C on average during 1970-1990, with the strongest effects on maximum daytime temperatures in summer and autumn. Aerosol cooling reflects comparable contributions from direct and indirect (cloud-mediated) radiative effects. Absorbing aerosol (mainly black carbon) has negligible warming effect. Aerosol cooling reduces surface evaporation and thus decreases precipitation along the US east coast, but also increases the southerly flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico resulting in increased cloud cover and precipitation in the central US. Observations over the eastern US show a lack of warming in 1960-1980 followed by very rapid warming since, which we reproduce in the GCM and attribute to trends in US anthropogenic aerosol sources. Present US aerosol concentrations are sufficiently low that future air quality improvements are projected to cause little further warming in the US (0.1 °C over 2010-2050). We find that most of the warming from aerosol source controls in the US has already been realized over the 1980-2010 period.

  17. Climatic effects of 1950-2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols - Part 2: Climate response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leibensperger, E. M.; Mickley, L. J.; Jacob, D. J.; Chen, W.-T.; Seinfeld, J. H.; Nenes, A.; Adams, P. J.; Streets, D. G.; Kumar, N.; Rind, D.

    2011-08-01

    We investigate the climate response to US anthropogenic aerosol sources over the 1950 to 2050 period by using the NASA GISS general circulation model (GCM) and comparing to observed US temperature trends. Time-dependent aerosol distributions are generated from the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model applied to historical emission inventories and future projections. Radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols peaked in 1970-1990 and has strongly declined since due to air quality regulations. We find that the regional radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols elicits a strong regional climate response, cooling the central and eastern US by 0.5-1.0 °C on average during 1970-1990, with the strongest effects on maximum daytime temperatures in summer and autumn. Aerosol cooling reflects comparable contributions from direct and indirect (cloud-mediated) radiative effects. Absorbing aerosol (mainly black carbon) has negligible warming effect. Aerosol cooling reduces surface evaporation and thus decreases precipitation along the US east coast, but also increases the southerly flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico resulting in increased cloud cover and precipitation in the central US. Observations over the eastern US show a lack of warming in 1960-1980 followed by very rapid warming since, which we reproduce in the GCM and attribute to trends in US anthropogenic aerosol sources. Present US aerosol concentrations are sufficiently low that future air quality improvements are projected to cause little further warming in the US (0.1 °C over 2010-2050). We find that most of the potential warming from aerosol source controls in the US has already been realized over the 1980-2010 period.

  18. Distinguishing Aerosol Impacts on Climate Over the Past Century

    SciTech Connect

    Koch, Dorothy; Menon, Surabi; Del Genio, Anthony; Ruedy, Reto; Alienov, Igor; Schmidt, Gavin A.

    2008-08-22

    Aerosol direct (DE), indirect (IE), and black carbon-snow albedo (BAE) effects on climate between 1890 and 1995 are compared using equilibrium aerosol-climate simulations in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model coupled to a mixed layer ocean. Pairs of control(1890)-perturbation(1995) with successive aerosol effects allow isolation of each effect. The experiments are conducted both with and without concurrent changes in greenhouse gases (GHG's). A new scheme allowing dependence of snow albedo on black carbon snow concentration is introduced. The fixed GHG experiments global surface air temperature (SAT) changed -0.2, -1.0 and +0.2 C from the DE, IE, and BAE. Ice and snow cover increased 1.0% from the IE and decreased 0.3% from the BAE. These changes were a factor of 4 larger in the Arctic. Global cloud cover increased by 0.5% from the IE. Net aerosol cooling effects are about half as large as the GHG warming, and their combined climate effects are smaller than the sum of their individual effects. Increasing GHG's did not affect the IE impact on cloud cover, however they decreased aerosol effects on SAT by 20% and on snow/ice cover by 50%; they also obscure the BAE on snow/ice cover. Arctic snow, ice, cloud, and shortwave forcing changes occur mostly during summer-fall, but SAT, sea level pressure, and long-wave forcing changes occur during winter. An explanation is that aerosols impact the cryosphere during the warm-season but the associated SAT effect is delayed until winter.

  19. Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Shindell, D. T.; Lamarque, J. -F.; Schulz, M.; Flanner, M.; Jiao, C.; Chin, M.; Young, P. J.; Lee, Y. H.; Rotstayn, L.; Mahowald, N.; Milly, G.; Faluvegi, G.; Balkanski, Y.; Collins, W. J.; Conley, A. J.; Dalsoren, S.; Easter, R.; Ghan, S.; Horowitz, L.; Liu, X.; Myhre, G.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S. T.; Skeie, R.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Takemura, T.; Voulgarakis, A.; Yoon, J. -H.; Lo, F.

    2013-01-01

    The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) examined the short-lived drivers of climate change in current climate models. Here we evaluate the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of which also participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The models reproduce present-day total aerosol optical depth (AOD) relatively well, though many are biased low. Contributions from individual aerosol components are quite different, however, and most models underestimate east Asian AOD. The models capture most 1980-2000 AOD trends well, but underpredict increases over the Yellow/Eastern Sea. They strongly underestimate absorbing AOD in many regions. We examine both the direct radiative forcing (RF) and the forcing including rapid adjustments (effective radiative forcing; ERF, including direct and indirect effects). The models’ all-sky 1850 to 2000 global mean annual average total aerosol RF is (mean; range) -0.26Wm-2-2. Screening based on model skill in capturing observed AOD yields a best estimate of -0.42Wm-2-2aerosol components in some models. Many ACCMIP and CMIP5 models appear to produce substantially smaller aerosol RF than this best estimate. Climate feedbacks contribute substantially (35 to -58 %) to modeled historical aerosol RF. The 1850 to 2000 aerosol ERF is -1.17Wm-2-2forcing than direct RF. Despite this, the multi-model spread relative to the mean is typically the same for ERF as it is for RF, or even smaller, over areas with substantial forcing. The largest 1850 to 2000 negative aerosol RF and ERF values are over and near Europe, south and east Asia and North America. ERF, however, is positive over the Sahara, the Karakoram, high Southern latitudes and especially the Arctic. Global

  20. Technical Note: Estimating Aerosol Effects on Cloud Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Ghan, Steven J.

    2013-10-09

    Estimating anthropogenic aerosol effects on the planetary energy balance through the aerosol influence on clouds using the difference in cloud radiative forcing from simulations with and without anthropogenic emissions produces estimates that are positively biased. A more representative method is suggested using the difference in cloud radiative forcing calculated with aerosol radiative effects neglected. The method also yields an aerosol radiative forcing decomposition that includes a term quantifying the impact of changes in surface albedo. The method requires only two additional diagnostic calculations: the whole-sky and clear-sky top-of-atmosphere radiative flux with aerosol radiative effects neglected.

  1. Intercomparison of Models Representing Direct Shortwave Radiative Forcing by Sulfate Aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boucher, O.; Schwartz, S. E.; Ackerman, T. P.; Anderson, T. L.; Bergstrom, B.; Bonnel, B.; Dahlback, A.; Fouquart, Y.; Chylek, P.; Fu, Q.; Halthore, R. N.; Haywood, J. M.; Iversen, T.; Kato, S.; Kinne, S.; Kirkevag, A.; Knapp, K. R.; Lacis, A.; Laszlo, I.; Mishchenko, M. I.

    2000-01-01

    The importance of aerosols as agents of climate change has recently been highlighted. However, the magnitude of aerosol forcing by scattering of shortwave radiation (direct forcing) is still very uncertain even for the relatively well characterized sulfate aerosol. A potential source of uncertainty is in the model representation of aerosol optical properties and aerosol influences on radiative transfer in the atmosphere. Although radiative transfer methods and codes have been compared in the past, these comparisons have not focused on aerosol forcing (change in net radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere). Here we report results of a project involving 12 groups using 15 models to examine radiative forcing by sulfate aerosol for a wide range of values of particle radius, aerosol optical depth, surface albedo, and solar zenith angle. Among the models that were employed were high and low spectral resolution models incorporating a variety of radiative transfer approximations as well as a line-by-line model. The normalized forcings (forcing per sulfate column burden) obtained with the several radiative transfer models were examined, and the discrepancies were characterized. All models simulate forcings of comparable amplitude and exhibit a similar dependence on input parameters. As expected for a non-light-absorbing aerosol, forcings were negative (cooling influence) except at high surface albedo combined with small solar zenith angle. The relative standard deviation of the zenith-angle-averaged normalized broadband forcing for 15 models-was 8% for particle radius near the maximum in this forcing (approx. 0.2 microns) and at low surface albedo. Somewhat greater model-to-model discrepancies were exhibited at specific solar zenith angles. Still greater discrepancies were exhibited at small particle radii and much greater discrepancies were exhibited at high surface albedos, at which the forcing changes sign; in these situations, however, the normalized forcing is

  2. Response of North Pacific eastern subtropical mode water to greenhouse gas versus aerosol forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xiang; Luo, Yiyong

    2016-04-01

    Mode water is a distinct water mass characterized by a near vertical homogeneous layer or low potential vorticity, and is considered essential for understanding ocean climate variability. Based on the output of GFDL CM3, this study investigates the response of eastern subtropical mode water (ESTMW) in the North Pacific to two different single forcings: greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosol. Under GHG forcing, ESTMW is produced on lighter isopycnal surfaces and is decreased in volume. Under aerosol forcing, in sharp contrast, it is produced on denser isopycnal surfaces and is increased in volume. The main reason for the opposite response is because surface ocean-to-atmosphere latent heat flux change over the ESTMW formation region shoals the mixed layer and thus weakens the lateral induction under GHG forcing, but deepens the mixed layer and thus strengthens the lateral induction under aerosol forcing. In addition, local wind changes are also favorable to the opposite response of ESTMW production to GHG versus aerosol.

  3. Global Radiative Forcing of Coupled Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols in a Unified General Circulation Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liao, Hong; Seinfeld, John H.; Adams, Peter J.; Mickley, Loretta J.

    2008-01-01

    Global simulations of sea salt and mineral dust aerosols are integrated into a previously developed unified general circulation model (GCM), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM II', that simulates coupled tropospheric ozone-NOx-hydrocarbon chemistry and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, and secondary organic carbon aerosols. The fully coupled gas-aerosol unified GCM allows one to evaluate the extent to which global burdens, radiative forcing, and eventually climate feedbacks of ozone and aerosols are influenced by gas-aerosol chemical interactions. Estimated present-day global burdens of sea salt and mineral dust are 6.93 and 18.1 Tg with lifetimes of 0.4 and 3.9 days, respectively. The GCM is applied to estimate current top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiative forcing by tropospheric ozone and all natural and anthropogenic aerosol components. The global annual mean value of the radiative forcing by tropospheric ozone is estimated to be +0.53 W m(sup -2) at TOA and +0.07 W m(sup -2) at the Earth's surface. Global, annual average TOA and surface radiative forcing by all aerosols are estimated as -0.72 and -4.04 W m(sup -2), respectively. While the predicted highest aerosol cooling and heating at TOA are -10 and +12 W m(sup -2) respectively, surface forcing can reach values as high as -30 W m(sup -2), mainly caused by the absorption by black carbon, mineral dust, and OC. We also estimate the effects of chemistry-aerosol coupling on forcing estimates based on currently available understanding of heterogeneous reactions on aerosols. Through altering the burdens of sulfate, nitrate, and ozone, heterogeneous reactions are predicted to change the global mean TOA forcing of aerosols by 17% and influence global mean TOA forcing of tropospheric ozone by 15%.

  4. Vertical profiles of aerosol radiative forcing - a comparison of AEROCOM phase 2 model submissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samset, B. H.; Myhre, G.

    2012-04-01

    Aerosols in the earth's atmosphere affect the radiation balance of the planet. The radiative forcing (RF) induced by a given aerosol burden is however sensitive to its vertical density profile, in addition to aerosol optical properties, cloud distributions and surface albedo. Differences in vertical profiles are thought to be among the causes for the large intermodel differences in RF of the aerosol direct effect. As part of the AEROCOM phase 2 direct radiative forcing experiment, this study compares 3D concentration fields of black carbon from fossil fuel burning (BC) and sulphate (SO4) from a set of major global climate models. The participating models were run using a prescribed set of emissions of aerosol and aerosol precursors and the same meteorological year. We assume that model differences due to the aerosol vertical profile can be factored out from other differences such as aerosol physics, radiative transfer or ground albedo. We consequently analyse model RF variability using profiles of normalized RF (radiative forcing per unit mass, NDRF) calculated from a single model. This tool allows us to quantify the fraction of the intermodel variability due to differences in aerosol vertical profiles. We show that there are still significant differences between both modelled vertical density profiles, treatment of aerosol physics and other factors influencing the RF profiles.

  5. Climate Forcings and Climate Sensitivities Diagnosed from Coupled Climate Model Integrations

    SciTech Connect

    Forster, P M A F; Taylor, K E

    2006-07-25

    A simple technique is proposed for calculating global mean climate forcing from transient integrations of coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). This 'climate forcing' differs from the conventionally defined radiative forcing as it includes semi-direct effects that account for certain short timescale responses in the troposphere. Firstly, we calculate a climate feedback term from reported values of 2 x CO{sub 2} radiative forcing and surface temperature time series from 70-year simulations by twenty AOGCMs. In these simulations carbon dioxide is increased by 1%/year. The derived climate feedback agrees well with values that we diagnose from equilibrium climate change experiments of slab-ocean versions of the same models. These climate feedback terms are associated with the fast, quasi-linear response of lapse rate, clouds, water vapor and albedo to global surface temperature changes. The importance of the feedbacks is gauged by their impact on the radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere. We find partial compensation between longwave and shortwave feedback terms that lessens the inter-model differences in the equilibrium climate sensitivity. There is also some indication that the AOGCMs overestimate the strength of the positive longwave feedback. These feedback terms are then used to infer the shortwave and longwave time series of climate forcing in 20th and 21st Century simulations in the AOGCMs. We validate the technique using conventionally calculated forcing time series from four AOGCMs. In these AOGCMs the shortwave and longwave climate forcings we diagnose agree with the conventional forcing time series within {approx}10%. The shortwave forcing time series exhibit order of magnitude variations between the AOGCMs, differences likely related to how both natural forcings and/or anthropogenic aerosol effects are included. There are also factor of two differences in the longwave climate forcing time series, which may indicate problems

  6. Indirect radiative forcing by ion-mediated nucleation of aerosol

    SciTech Connect

    Yu, Fangqun; Luo, Gan; Liu, Xiaohong; Easter, Richard C.; Ma, Xiaoyan; Ghan, Steven J.

    2012-12-03

    A clear understanding of particle formation mechanisms is critical for assessing aerosol indirect radiative forcing and associated climate feedback processes. Recent studies reveal the importance of ion-mediated nucleation (IMN) in generating new particles and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in the atmosphere. Here we implement for the first time a physically based treatment of IMN into the Community Atmosphere Model version 5. Our simulations show that, compared to globally averaged results based on binary homogeneous nucleation (BHN), the presence of ionization (i.e., IMN) halves H2SO4 column burden, but increases the column integrated nucleation rate by around one order of magnitude, total particle number burden by a factor of ~ 3, CCN burden by ~ 10% (at 0.2% supersaturation) to 65% (at 1.0% supersaturation), and cloud droplet number burden by ~ 18%. Compared to BHN, IMN increases cloud liquid water path by 7.5%, decreases precipitation by 1.1%, and increases total cloud cover by 1.9%. This leads to an increase of total shortwave cloud radiative forcing by 3.67 W/m2 (more negative) and longwave cloud forcing by 1.78 W/m2 (more positive), resulting in a -1.9 W/m2 net change in cloud radiative forcing associated with IMN. The significant impacts of ionization on global aerosol formation, CCN abundance, and cloud radiative forcing may provide an important physical mechanism linking the global energy balance to various processes affecting atmospheric ionization, which should be properly represented in climate models.

  7. Different responses of Sea Surface Temperature in the North Pacific to greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Liyi; Liu, Qinyu

    2015-12-01

    The responses of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to greenhouse gas (GHG) and anthropogenic aerosol in the North Pacific are compared based on the historical single and all-forcing simulations with Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 3 (GFDL CM3). During 1860-2005, the effect of GHG forcing on the North Pacific SST is opposite to that of the aerosol forcing. Specifically, the aerosol cooling effect exceeds the GHG warming effect in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region during 1950-2004 in the CM3 single forcing. The mid-latitude response of ocean circulation to the GHG (aerosol) forcing is to enhance (weaken) the Subtropical Gyre. Then the SST warming (cooling) lies on the zonal band of 40°N because of the increased (reduced) KE warm advection effect in the GHG (aerosol) forcing simulations, and the cooling effect to SST will surpass the warming effect in the KE region in the historical all-forcing simulations. Besides, the positive feedback between cold SST and cloud can also strengthen the aerosol cooling effect in the KE region during boreal summer, when the mixed layer depth is shallow. In the GHG (aerosol) forcing simulations, corresponding to warming (cooling) SST in the KE region, the weakened (enhanced) Aleutian Low appears in the Northeast Pacific. Consequently, the SST responses to all-forcing in the historical simulations are similar to the responses to aerosol forcing in sign and spatial pattern, hence the aerosol effect is quite important to the SST cooling in the mid-latitude North Pacific during the past 55 years.

  8. Global direct radiative forcing due to multicomponent anthropogenic and natural aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobson, Mark Z.

    2001-01-01

    Global simulations of the composition of and direct forcing due to aerosols containing natural and/or anthropogenic sulfate, nitrate, chloride, carbonate, ammonium, sodium, calcium, magnesium, potassium, black carbon, organic matter, silica, ferrous oxide, and aluminum oxide were carried out. Chloride and natural sulfate were found to be the most important natural aerosol constituents in the atmosphere in terms of solar plus thermal-infrared forcing. Sea spray was the most important natural aerosol type, indicating that it should be accounted for in weather and climate calculations. Ammonium was found to have a positive direct forcing, since it reduces water uptake in sulfate-containing solutions; thus, anthropogenic ammonium contributes to global warming. The magnitudes of ammonium and nitrate forcing were smaller than those of chloride or sulfate forcing. When organics were divided into three groups with different assumed UV absorption characteristics, total aerosol direct forcing at the tropopause increased by about +0.03 to +0.05 W m-2 (direct forcing by organics remained negative), suggesting that UV absorption by organics is a nontrivial component of the global energy balance. Gypsum [CaSO4-2H2O], sal ammoniac [NH4Cl], halite [NaCl], halite, and nitrum [KNO3] were estimated to be the most common sulfate-, ammonium-, sodium-, chloride-, and nitrate-containing solid-phase aerosol constituents, respectively, in the global atmosphere. Solid formation in aerosols was found to increase total-aerosol direct forcing by +0.03 to +0.05 W m-2. Spatial and vertical forcing estimates, sensitivities of forcing to relative humidity and concentration, and estimates of global aerosol liquid water content are given. Modeled aerosol optical properties are compared with satellite and field measurements.

  9. Climate forcing from the transport sectors

    PubMed Central

    Fuglestvedt, Jan; Berntsen, Terje; Myhre, Gunnar; Rypdal, Kristin; Skeie, Ragnhild Bieltvedt

    2008-01-01

    Although the transport sector is responsible for a large and growing share of global emissions affecting climate, its overall contribution has not been quantified. We provide a comprehensive analysis of radiative forcing from the road transport, shipping, aviation, and rail subsectors, using both past- and forward-looking perspectives. We find that, since preindustrial times, transport has contributed ≈15% and 31% of the total man-made CO2 and O3 forcing, respectively. A forward-looking perspective shows that the current emissions from transport are responsible for ≈16% of the integrated net forcing over 100 years from all current man-made emissions. The dominating contributor to positive forcing (warming) is CO2, followed by tropospheric O3. By subsector, road transport is the largest contributor to warming. The transport sector also exerts cooling through reduced methane lifetime and atmospheric aerosol effects. Shipping causes net cooling, except on future time scales of several centuries. Much of the forcing from transport comes from emissions not covered by the Kyoto Protocol. PMID:18180450

  10. The Radiative Forcing from Biogenic Secondary Organic Aerosol

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scott, C. E.; Forster, P.; Spracklen, D. V.; Carslaw, K. S.; Arnold, S.; Rap, A.

    2012-12-01

    Vegetation emits biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), such as monoterpenes, isoprene and sesquiterpenes, into the atmosphere. Once emitted, BVOCs rapidly undergo reactions with the hydroxyl radical, ozone and the nitrate radical to yield a range of lower volatility oxidation products. These compounds are of sufficiently low volatility to partition into the aerosol phase, forming secondary organic aerosol (SOA). Increasingly, there are indications that organic compounds, specifically the oxidation products of terpenes, may contribute to the process of new particle formation as well as the growth of existing particles. The formation of SOA can influence the Earth's radiative balance by absorbing and scattering radiation (the direct effect) and by altering the properties of clouds (the indirect effect), via their action as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Biogenic SOA formed from the oxidation products of isoprene and monoterpenes has been shown to be CCN active under atmospherically relevant conditions, indicating that complex climate feedbacks may result from the emission of BVOCs. Using a global aerosol microphysics model (GLOMAP), and offline radiative transfer code, we simulate a present day aerosol indirect radiative forcing of between -0.07 and - 0.81 W.m-2, for the emission of BVOCs, due to a simulated increase in the number of particles able to act as CCN. The forcing obtained per emission is not spatially uniform, with monoterpenes in the southern hemisphere being most efficient at inducing a radiative change. We find a strong sensitivity to the treatment of concurrent anthropogenic emissions. In the present day, biogenic secondary organic material is more efficient at perturbing CCN number concentrations, but when anthropogenic emissions from 1750 are included in our simulations, the lower background aerosol concentration results in a more significant radiative response. The largest uncertainty in the forcing obtained however, comes from the

  11. Grid-scale Indirect Radiative Forcing of Climate due to aerosols over the northern hemisphere simulated by the integrated WRF-CMAQ model: Preliminary results

    EPA Science Inventory

    In this study, indirect aerosol effects on grid-scale clouds were implemented in the integrated WRF3.3-CMAQ5.0 modeling system by including parameterizations for both cloud droplet and ice number concentrations calculated from the CMAQ-predicted aerosol particles. The resulting c...

  12. Aerosol Climate Time Series in ESA Aerosol_cci

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Popp, Thomas; de Leeuw, Gerrit; Pinnock, Simon

    2016-04-01

    Within the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) Aerosol_cci (2010 - 2017) conducts intensive work to improve algorithms for the retrieval of aerosol information from European sensors. Meanwhile, full mission time series of 2 GCOS-required aerosol parameters are completely validated and released: Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from dual view ATSR-2 / AATSR radiometers (3 algorithms, 1995 - 2012), and stratospheric extinction profiles from star occultation GOMOS spectrometer (2002 - 2012). Additionally, a 35-year multi-sensor time series of the qualitative Absorbing Aerosol Index (AAI) together with sensitivity information and an AAI model simulator is available. Complementary aerosol properties requested by GCOS are in a "round robin" phase, where various algorithms are inter-compared: fine mode AOD, mineral dust AOD (from the thermal IASI spectrometer, but also from ATSR instruments and the POLDER sensor), absorption information and aerosol layer height. As a quasi-reference for validation in few selected regions with sparse ground-based observations the multi-pixel GRASP algorithm for the POLDER instrument is used. Validation of first dataset versions (vs. AERONET, MAN) and inter-comparison to other satellite datasets (MODIS, MISR, SeaWIFS) proved the high quality of the available datasets comparable to other satellite retrievals and revealed needs for algorithm improvement (for example for higher AOD values) which were taken into account for a reprocessing. The datasets contain pixel level uncertainty estimates which were also validated and improved in the reprocessing. For the three ATSR algorithms the use of an ensemble method was tested. The paper will summarize and discuss the status of dataset reprocessing and validation. The focus will be on the ATSR, GOMOS and IASI datasets. Pixel level uncertainties validation will be summarized and discussed including unknown components and their potential usefulness and limitations. Opportunities for time series extension

  13. Influence of urban aerosol pollution to radiative forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nemuc, Anca; Stefan, Sabina; Talianu, Camelia L.

    2007-10-01

    Daily PM10 concentrations of samples collected at two sites, urban and rural from Romania have been used to estimate the aerosol direct radiative forcing. Using OPAC (Optical Properties of Aerosols and Cloud) model we determined the single scattering albedo, the aerosol optical depth and aerosol up-scatter fraction, aerosol's properties needed to estimate the magnitude and sign of direct aerosol radiative forcing. The surface albedo was assumed 0.2 for the urban site and 0.06 for the rural site for all wavelengths. For aerosol scale height we used 1km in winter and 2 km in the summer to calculate the optical depth of the boundary layer. Statistical analysis of the PM10 concentration for both sites show clear seasonal cycle with maxima in the winter. As a consequence of urban atmospheric pollution the radiative forcing for urban site appears strongly modified in comparison with rural site.

  14. Large radiative forcing efficiency of atmospheric aerosols over the Himalaya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gasbarra, Daniele; di Sarra, Alcide; Meloni, Daniela; Bonasoni, Paolo; Di Biagio, Claudia; Gobbi, Gian Paolo; Marinoni, Angela; Pietro Verza, Gian; Vuillermoz, Elisa

    2014-05-01

    This study is based on measurements made at the Nepal Climate Observatory at Pyramid (NCO-P, 27.95 N, 86.82 E), located at 5079 m altitude in the Sagamartha National Park, Eastern Nepal Himalaya. We analised seasonal variations of solar downward irradiance (SW), columnar water vapour content (wv), aerosol optical depth at 500 nm (τ) and surface albedo (A) in the period between 2007 and 2010, in order to obtain the radiative perturbations produced by aerosols in the SW. SW measurements are carried out by a CMP21 pyranometer, while A is derived from a CNR1 radiometer. Values of wv and τ are retrieved from the measurements by the EVK2-CNR Cimel sunphotometer operating within the AERONET network. τ was found to be lower than 0.1 in 98% of the cases. However, during the pre-monsoon season, especially in the months of April and May, cases with τ reaching 0.27 were recorded. The aerosol surface shortwave radiative effect in cloud-free periods was estimated during the elevated aerosol optical depth cases using different methods. The 'hybrid method' was applied using experimental measurements of solar downward irradiance and simulations made with the MODTRAN (MODerate resolution atmospheric TRANsmission) model. The dependency of SW on A and wv was determined from MODTRAN simulations, and was used to correct experimental measurements for albedo and water vapour changes. The radiative perturbation produced by aerosol was thus obtained as the difference between the measured irradiances and the modelled values for aerosol-free conditions and the same water vapour and albedo values, and at the same solar zenith angle. The aerosol radiative effect was also derived by comparing elevated and low aerosol optical depth cases, at similar values of solar zenith angle, albedo, and column water vapour. In addition the direct method, relating SW to changes in τ, was also used. These three methods produce consistent results. Although the overall aerosol radiative perturbation is small

  15. Global observations of aerosol-cloud-precipitation-climate interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenfeld, Daniel; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Asmi, Ari; Chin, Mian; Leeuw, Gerrit; Donovan, David P.; Kahn, Ralph; Kinne, Stefan; Kivekäs, Niku; Kulmala, Markku; Lau, William; Schmidt, K. Sebastian; Suni, Tanja; Wagner, Thomas; Wild, Martin; Quaas, Johannes

    2014-12-01

    Cloud drop condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN) particles determine to a large extent cloud microstructure and, consequently, cloud albedo and the dynamic response of clouds to aerosol-induced changes to precipitation. This can modify the reflected solar radiation and the thermal radiation emitted to space. Measurements of tropospheric CCN and IN over large areas have not been possible and can be only roughly approximated from satellite-sensor-based estimates of optical properties of aerosols. Our lack of ability to measure both CCN and cloud updrafts precludes disentangling the effects of meteorology from those of aerosols and represents the largest component in our uncertainty in anthropogenic climate forcing. Ways to improve the retrieval accuracy include multiangle and multipolarimetric passive measurements of the optical signal and multispectral lidar polarimetric measurements. Indirect methods include proxies of trace gases, as retrieved by hyperspectral sensors. Perhaps the most promising emerging direction is retrieving the CCN properties by simultaneously retrieving convective cloud drop number concentrations and updraft speeds, which amounts to using clouds as natural CCN chambers. These satellite observations have to be constrained by in situ observations of aerosol-cloud-precipitation-climate (ACPC) interactions, which in turn constrain a hierarchy of model simulations of ACPC. Since the essence of a general circulation model is an accurate quantification of the energy and mass fluxes in all forms between the surface, atmosphere and outer space, a route to progress is proposed here in the form of a series of box flux closure experiments in the various climate regimes. A roadmap is provided for quantifying the ACPC interactions and thereby reducing the uncertainty in anthropogenic climate forcing.

  16. Climate Engineering with Stratospheric Aerosols and Associated Engineering Parameters

    SciTech Connect

    Kravitz, Benjamin S.

    2013-02-12

    Climate engineering with stratospheric aerosols, an idea inspired by large volcaniceruptions, could cool the Earth’s surface and thus alleviate some of the predicted dangerous impacts of anthropogenic climate change. However, the effectiveness of climate engineering to achieve a particular climate goal, and any associated side effects, depend on certain aerosol parameters and how the aerosols are deployed in the stratosphere. Through the examples of sulfate and black carbon aerosols, this paper examines "engineering" parameters-aerosol composition, aerosol size, and spatial and temporal variations in deployment-for stratospheric climate engineering. The effects of climate engineering are sensitive to these parameters, suggesting that a particle could be found ordesigned to achieve specific desired climate outcomes. This prospect opens the possibility for discussion of societal goals for climate engineering.

  17. The contribution of China's emissions to global climate forcing.

    PubMed

    Li, Bengang; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Hauglustaine, Didier; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Chen, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Laurent Zhaoxin; Li, Yue; Liu, Hongyan; Liu, Junfeng; Peng, Shushi; Shen, Zehao; Sun, Zhenzhong; Wang, Rong; Wang, Tao; Yin, Guodong; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhou, Feng

    2016-03-17

    Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on "common but differentiated responsibilities" reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development, accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols, but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry-climate model and a chemistry and transport model to quantify China's present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% ± 4% of the current global radiative forcing. China's relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% ± 2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% ± 6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China's strongest contributions are 0.16 ± 0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, -0.11 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 ± 0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China's eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years: a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon. PMID:26983540

  18. Simulation of South Asian aerosols for regional climate studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nair, Vijayakumar S.; Solmon, Fabien; Giorgi, Filippo; Mariotti, Laura; Babu, S. Suresh; Moorthy, K. Krishna

    2012-02-01

    Extensive intercomparison of columnar and near-surface aerosols, simulated over the South Asian domain using the aerosol module included in the regional climate model (RegCM4) of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) have been carried out using ground-based network of Sun/sky Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) radiometers, satellite sensors such as Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), and ground-based black carbon (BC) measurements made at Aerosol Radiative Forcing over India (ARFI) network stations. In general, RegCM4 simulations reproduced the spatial and seasonal characteristics of aerosol optical depth over South Asia reasonably well, particularly over west Asia, where mineral dust is a major contributor to the total aerosol loading. In contrast, RegCM4 simulations drastically underestimated the BC mass concentrations over most of the stations, by a factor of 2 to 5, with a large spatial variability. Seasonally, the discrepancy between the measured and simulated BC tended to be higher during winter and periods when the atmospheric boundary layer is convectively stable (such as nighttime and early mornings), while during summer season and during periods when the boundary layer is convectively unstable (daytime) the discrepancies were much lower, with the noontime values agreeing very closely with the observations. A detailed analysis revealed that the model does not reproduce the nocturnal high in BC, observed at most of the Indian sites especially during winter, because of the excessive vertical transport of aerosols under stable boundary layer conditions. As far as the vertical distribution was concerned, the simulated vertical profiles of BC agreed well with airborne measurements during daytime. This comprehensive validation exercise reveals the strengths and weaknesses of the model in simulating the spatial and temporal heterogeneities of the aerosol fields over

  19. Arctic climate response to geoengineering with stratospheric sulfate aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCusker, K. E.; Battisti, D. S.; Bitz, C. M.

    2010-12-01

    Recent warming and record summer sea-ice area minimums have spurred expressions of concern for arctic ecosystems, permafrost, and polar bear populations, among other things. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections to deliberately cancel the anthropogenic temperature rise has been put forth as a possible solution to restoring Arctic (and global) climate to modern conditions. However, climate is particularly sensitive in the northern high latitudes, responding easily to radiative forcing changes. To that end, we explore the extent to which tropical injections of stratospheric sulfate aerosol can accomplish regional cancellation in the Arctic. We use the Community Climate System Model version 3 global climate model to execute simulations with combinations of doubled CO2 and imposed stratospheric sulfate burdens to investigate the effects on high latitude climate. We further explore the sensitivity of the polar climate to ocean dynamics by running a suite of simulations with and without ocean dynamics, transiently and to equilibrium respectively. We find that, although annual, global mean temperature cancellation is accomplished, there is over-cooling on land in Arctic summer, but residual warming in Arctic winter, which is largely due to atmospheric circulation changes. Furthermore, the spatial extent of these features and their concurrent impacts on sea-ice properties are modified by the inclusion of ocean dynamical feedbacks.

  20. Radiative Forcing in the ACCMIP Historical and Future Climate Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shindell, Drew Todd; Lamarque, J.-F.; Schulz, M.; Flanner, M.; Jiao, C.; Chin, M.; Young, P. J.; Lee, Y. H.; Rotstayn, L.; Mahowald, N.; Milly, G.; Faluvegi, G.; Balkanski, Y.; Collins, W. J.; Conley, A. J.; Dalsoren, S.; Easter, R.; Ghan, S.; Horowitz, L.; Liu, X.; Myhre, G.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S. T.; Skeie, R.; Voulgarakis, A.

    2013-01-01

    A primary goal of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model IntercomparisonProject (ACCMIP) was to characterize the short-lived drivers of preindustrial to 2100climate change in the current generation of climate models. Here we evaluate historicaland 5 future radiative forcing in the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of whichalso participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5).The models generally reproduce present-day climatological total aerosol opticaldepth (AOD) relatively well. components to this total, however, and most appear to underestimate AOD over East10 Asia. The models generally capture 1980-2000 AOD trends fairly well, though theyunderpredict AOD increases over the YellowEastern Sea. They appear to strongly underestimate absorbing AOD, especially in East Asia, South and Southeast Asia, SouthAmerica and Southern Hemisphere Africa.We examined both the conventional direct radiative forcing at the tropopause (RF) and the forcing including rapid adjustments (adjusted forcing AF, including direct andindirect effects). The models calculated all aerosol all-sky 1850 to 2000 global meanannual average RF ranges from 0.06 to 0.49 W m(sup -2), with a mean of 0.26 W m(sup -2) and a median of 0.27 W m(sup -2. Adjusting for missing aerosol components in some modelsbrings the range to 0.12 to 0.62W m(sup -2), with a mean of 0.39W m(sup -2). Screen20ing the models based on their ability to capture spatial patterns and magnitudes ofAOD and AOD trends yields a quality-controlled mean of 0.42W m(sup -2) and range of0.33 to 0.50 W m(sup -2) (accounting for missing components). The CMIP5 subset of ACCMIPmodels spans 0.06 to 0.49W m(sup -2), suggesting some CMIP5 simulations likelyhave too little aerosol RF. A substantial, but not well quantified, contribution to histori25cal aerosol RF may come from climate feedbacks (35 to 58). The mean aerosol AF during this period is 1.12W m(sup -2) (median value 1.16W m(sup -2), range 0.72 to1.44W m

  1. Aerosols, Clouds, and Precipitation as Scale Interactions in the Climate System and Controls on Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donner, Leo

    Clouds are major regulators of atmospheric energy flows. Their character depends on atmospheric composition, dynamics, and thermodynamic state. Clouds can assume organized structures whose scales are planetary, while processes important for determining basic properties occur on the scale of microns. The range of processes, scales, and interactions among them has precluded the development of concise theories for the role of clouds in climate, and limitations in modeling clouds in complex climate models remain among the key uncertainties in understanding and projecting climate change. The distribution function of vertical velocities (updraft speeds) in clouds is an important control on climate forcing by clouds and possibly a strong correlate with climate sensitivity. (Climate forcing refers to the change in Earth's energy balance as atmospheric composition changes, in particular, due to human activity. Climate sensitivity is defined here as the equilibrium change in globally averaged annual surface temperature as a result of doubled carbon dioxide.) Vertical velocities are central because they determine the thermodynamic environment governing phase changes of water, with both equilibrium and non-equilibrium phenomena important. The spatial and temporal spectra of relevant vertical velocities includes scales both numerically resolved by climate models and below their resolution limit. The latter implies a requirement to parameterize these smaller scale motions in models. The scale dependence of vertical velocities and emerging observational constraints on their distribution provide new opportunities for representing aerosols, clouds, and precipitation in climate models. Success in doing so could provide important breakthroughs in understanding both climate forcing and sensitivity.

  2. Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shindell, D. T.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Schulz, M.; Flanner, M.; Jiao, C.; Chin, M.; Young, P.; Lee, Y. H.; Rotstayn, L.; Milly, G.; Faluvegi, G.; Balkanski, Y.; Collins, W. J.; Conley, A. J.; Dalsoren, S.; Easter, R.; Ghan, S.; Horowitz, L.; Liu, X.; Myhre, G.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S.; Skeie, R.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Takemura, T.; Voulgarakis, A.; Yoon, J.-H.

    2012-08-01

    A primary goal of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) was to characterize the short-lived drivers of preindustrial to 2100 climate change in the current generation of climate models. Here we evaluate historical and future radiative forcing in the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of which also participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The models generally reproduce present-day climatological total aerosol optical depth (AOD) relatively well. They have quite different contributions from various aerosol components to this total, however, and most appear to underestimate AOD over East Asia. The models generally capture 1980-2000 AOD trends fairly well, though they underpredict AOD increases over the Yellow/Eastern Sea. They appear to strongly underestimate absorbing AOD, especially in East Asia, South and Southeast Asia, South America and Southern Hemisphere Africa. We examined both the conventional direct radiative forcing at the tropopause (RF) and the forcing including rapid adjustments (adjusted forcing; AF, including direct and indirect effects). The models' calculated all aerosol all-sky 1850 to 2000 global mean annual average RF ranges from -0.06 to -0.49 W m-2, with a mean of -0.26 W m-2 and a median of -0.27 W m-2. Adjusting for missing aerosol components in some models brings the range to -0.12 to -0.62 W m-2, with a mean of -0.39 W m-2. Screening the models based on their ability to capture spatial patterns and magnitudes of AOD and AOD trends yields a quality-controlled mean of -0.42 W m-2 and range of -0.33 to -0.50 W m-2 (accounting for missing components). The CMIP5 subset of ACCMIP models spans -0.06 to -0.49 W m-2, suggesting some CMIP5 simulations likely have too little aerosol RF. A substantial, but not well quantified, contribution to historical aerosol RF may come from climate feedbacks (35 to -58 %). The mean aerosol AF during this period is -1.12 W m-2 (median

  3. On the characteristics of aerosol indirect effect based on dynamic regimes in global climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, S.; Wang, M.; Ghan, S. J.; Ding, A.; Wang, H.; Zhang, K.; Neubauer, D.; Lohmann, U.; Ferrachat, S.; Takeamura, T.; Gettelman, A.; Morrison, H.; Lee, Y. H.; Shindell, D. T.; Partridge, D. G.; Stier, P.; Kipling, Z.; Fu, C.

    2015-09-01

    Aerosol-cloud interactions continue to constitute a major source of uncertainty for the estimate of climate radiative forcing. The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes, determined by monthly mean 500 hPa vertical pressure velocity (ω500), lower-tropospheric stability (LTS) and large-scale surface precipitation rate derived from several global climate models (GCMs), with a focus on liquid water path (LWP) response to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The LWP sensitivity to aerosol perturbation within dynamic regimes is found to exhibit a large spread among these GCMs. It is in regimes of strong large-scale ascend (ω500 < -25 hPa d-1) and low clouds (stratocumulus and trade wind cumulus) where the models differ most. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing is also found to differ significantly among different regimes. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing in ascending regimes is as large as that in stratocumulus regimes, which indicates that regimes with strong large-scale ascend are as important as stratocumulus regimes in studying AIE. It is further shown that shortwave aerosol indirect forcing over regions with high monthly large-scale surface precipitation rate (> 0.1 mm d-1) contributes the most to the total aerosol indirect forcing (from 64 to nearly 100 %). Results show that the uncertainty in AIE is even larger within specific dynamical regimes than that globally, pointing to the need to reduce the uncertainty in AIE in different dynamical regimes.

  4. On the characteristics of aerosol indirect effect based on dynamic regimes in global climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Shipeng; Wang, Minghuai; Ghan, Steven J.; Ding, Aijun; Wang, Hailong; Zhang, Kai; Neubauer, David; Lohmann, Ulrike; Ferrachat, Sylvaine; Takeamura, Toshihiko; Gettelman, Andrew; Morrison, Hugh; Lee, Yunha; Shindell, Drew T.; Partridge, Daniel G.; Stier, Philip; Kipling, Zak; Fu, Congbin

    2016-03-01

    Aerosol-cloud interactions continue to constitute a major source of uncertainty for the estimate of climate radiative forcing. The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes, determined by monthly mean 500 hPa vertical pressure velocity (ω500), lower-tropospheric stability (LTS) and large-scale surface precipitation rate derived from several global climate models (GCMs), with a focus on liquid water path (LWP) response to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The LWP sensitivity to aerosol perturbation within dynamic regimes is found to exhibit a large spread among these GCMs. It is in regimes of strong large-scale ascent (ω500 < -25 hPa day-1) and low clouds (stratocumulus and trade wind cumulus) where the models differ most. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing is also found to differ significantly among different regimes. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing in ascending regimes is close to that in subsidence regimes, which indicates that regimes with strong large-scale ascent are as important as stratocumulus regimes in studying AIE. It is further shown that shortwave aerosol indirect forcing over regions with high monthly large-scale surface precipitation rate (> 0.1 mm day-1) contributes the most to the total aerosol indirect forcing (from 64 to nearly 100 %). Results show that the uncertainty in AIE is even larger within specific dynamical regimes compared to the uncertainty in its global mean values, pointing to the need to reduce the uncertainty in AIE in different dynamical regimes.

  5. Aerosol Indirect Effects on Cirrus Clouds in Global Aerosol-Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, X.; Zhang, K.; Wang, Y.; Neubauer, D.; Lohmann, U.; Ferrachat, S.; Zhou, C.; Penner, J.; Barahona, D.; Shi, X.

    2015-12-01

    Cirrus clouds play an important role in regulating the Earth's radiative budget and water vapor distribution in the upper troposphere. Aerosols can act as solution droplets or ice nuclei that promote ice nucleation in cirrus clouds. Anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel and biomass burning activities have substantially perturbed and enhanced concentrations of aerosol particles in the atmosphere. Global aerosol-climate models (GCMs) have now been used to quantify the radiative forcing and effects of aerosols on cirrus clouds (IPCC AR5). However, the estimate uncertainty is very large due to the different representation of ice cloud formation and evolution processes in GCMs. In addition, large discrepancies have been found between model simulations in terms of the spatial distribution of ice-nucleating aerosols, relative humidity, and temperature fluctuations, which contribute to different estimates of the aerosol indirect effect through cirrus clouds. In this presentation, four GCMs with the start-of-the art representations of cloud microphysics and aerosol-cloud interactions are used to estimate the aerosol indirect effects on cirrus clouds and to identify the causes of the discrepancies. The estimated global and annual mean anthropogenic aerosol indirect effect through cirrus clouds ranges from 0.1 W m-2 to 0.3 W m-2 in terms of the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) net radiation flux, and 0.5-0.6 W m-2 for the TOA longwave flux. Despite the good agreement on global mean, large discrepancies are found at the regional scale. The physics behind the aerosol indirect effect is dramatically different. Our analysis suggests that burden of ice-nucleating aerosols in the upper troposphere, ice nucleation frequency, and relative role of ice formation processes (i.e., homogeneous versus heterogeneous nucleation) play key roles in determining the characteristics of the simulated aerosol indirect effects. In addition to the indirect effect estimate, we also use field campaign

  6. Possible Influence of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Cirrus Clouds and Anthropogenic Forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Penner, Joyce E.; Chen, Yang; Wang, Minghuai; Liu, Xiaohong

    2009-02-03

    Cirrus clouds have a net warming effect on the atmosphere and cover about 30% of the Earth’s area. Aerosol particles initiate ice formation in the upper troposphere through modes of action that include homogeneous freezing of solution droplets, heterogeneous nucleation on solid particles immersed in a solution, and deposition nucleation of vapor onto solid particles. Here, we examine the possible change in ice number concentration from anthropogenic soot originating from surface sources of fossil fuel and biomass burning, from anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, and from aircraft that deposit their aerosols directly in the upper troposphere. We find that fossil fuel and biomass burning soot aerosols exert a radiative forcing of -0.68 to 0.01 Wm-2 while anthropogenic sulfate aerosols exert a forcing of -0.01 to 0.18 Wm-2. Our calculations show that the sign of the forcing by aircraft soot depends on the model configuration and can be both positive or negative, ranging from -0.16 to 0.02 Wm-2. The magnitude of the forcing in cirrus clouds can be comparable to the forcing exerted by anthropogenic aerosols on warm clouds, but this forcing has not been included in past assessments of the total anthropogenic radiative forcing of climate.

  7. Natural and Anthropogenic Aerosols in the World's Megacities and Climate Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kafatos, M.; Singh, R.; El-Askary, H.; Qu, J.

    2005-12-01

    The world's megacities are the sites of production of a variety of aerosols and are themselves affected by natural and human-induced aerosols. In particular, sources of aerosols impacting cities include: industrial and automobile emission; sand and dust storms from, e.g., the Sahara and Gobi Deserts; as well as fire-induced aerosols. Improving the ability of various stakeholder organizations to respond effectively to high concentrations of aerosols, with special emphasis on mineral dust from dust storms; smoke from controlled burns, wild fires and agricultural burning; and anthropogenic aerosols, would be an important goal not just to understand climate forcings but also to be able to better respond to the increasing amounts of aerosols at global and regional levels. Cities and surrounding areas are affected without good estimates of the current and future conditions of the aerosols and their impact on regional and global climate. Remotely sensed (RS) NASA, NOAA and international platform data can be used to characterize the properties of aerosol clouds and special hazard events such as sand and dust storms (SDS). Aerosol analysis and prediction-model capabilities from which stakeholders can choose the tools that best match their needs and technological expertise are important. Scientists validating mesoscale and aerosol-transport models, aerosol retrievals from satellite measurements are indispensable for robust climate predictions. Here we give two examples of generic SDS cases and urban pollution and their possible impact on climate: The Sahara desert is a major source of dust aerosols dust transport is an important climatic process. The aerosols in the form of dust particles reflect the incoming solar radiation to space, thereby reducing the amount of radiation available to the ground, known as `direct' radiative forcing of aerosols. The aerosols also change the cloud albedo and microphysical properties of clouds, known as `indirect' radiative forcing of

  8. A satellite view of aerosols in the climate system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kaufman, Yoram J.; Tanre, Didier; Boucher, Olivier

    2002-01-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols are intricately linked to the climate system and to the hydrologic cycle. The net effect of aerosols is to cool the climate system by reflecting sunlight. Depending on their composition, aerosols can also absorb sunlight in the atmosphere, further cooling the surface but warming the atmosphere in the process. These effects of aerosols on the temperature profile, along with the role of aerosols as cloud condensation nuclei, impact the hydrologic cycle, through changes in cloud cover, cloud properties and precipitation. Unravelling these feedbacks is particularly difficult because aerosols take a multitude of shapes and forms, ranging from desert dust to urban pollution, and because aerosol concentrations vary strongly over time and space. To accurately study aerosol distribution and composition therefore requires continuous observations from satellites, networks of ground-based instruments and dedicated field experiments. Increases in aerosol concentration and changes in their composition, driven by industrialization and an expanding population, may adversely affect the Earth's climate and water supply.

  9. Aerosols and clouds in chemical transport models and climate models.

    SciTech Connect

    Lohmann,U.; Schwartz, S. E.

    2008-03-02

    Clouds exert major influences on both shortwave and longwave radiation as well as on the hydrological cycle. Accurate representation of clouds in climate models is a major unsolved problem because of high sensitivity of radiation and hydrology to cloud properties and processes, incomplete understanding of these processes, and the wide range of length scales over which these processes occur. Small changes in the amount, altitude, physical thickness, and/or microphysical properties of clouds due to human influences can exert changes in Earth's radiation budget that are comparable to the radiative forcing by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, thus either partly offsetting or enhancing the warming due to these gases. Because clouds form on aerosol particles, changes in the amount and/or composition of aerosols affect clouds in a variety of ways. The forcing of the radiation balance due to aerosol-cloud interactions (indirect aerosol effect) has large uncertainties because a variety of important processes are not well understood precluding their accurate representation in models.

  10. Potential Aerosol Indirect Effects on Atmospheric Circulation and Radiative Forcing through Deep Convection

    SciTech Connect

    Fan, Jiwen; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Ding, Yanni; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Li, Zhanqing

    2012-05-10

    Aerosol indirect effects, i.e., the interactions of aerosols with clouds by serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) or ice nuclei (IN), constitute the largest uncertainty in climate forcing and projection. Previous IPCC reported aerosol indirect forcing is negative, which does not account for aerosol-convective cloud interactions because the complex processes involved are poorly understood and represented in climate models. Here we report that aerosol indirect effect on deep convective cloud systems can lead to enhanced regional convergence and a strong top-of atmosphere (TOA) warming. Aerosol invigoration effect on convection can result in a strong radiative warming in the atmosphere (+5.6 W m-2) due to strong night-time warming, a lofted latent heating, and a reduced diurnal temperature difference, all of which could remarkably impact regional circulation and modify weather systems. We further elucidated how aerosols change convective intensity, diabatic heating, and regional circulation under different environmental conditions and concluded that wind shear and cloud base temperature play key roles in determining the significance of aerosol invigoration effect for convective systems.

  11. The relationship between aerosol model uncertainty and radiative forcing uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carslaw, Ken; Lee, Lindsay; Reddington, Carly

    2016-04-01

    There has been no systematic assessment of how reduction in the uncertainty of global aerosol models will feed through to the uncertainty in the predicted forcing. We use a global model perturbed parameter ensemble to show that tight observational constraint of aerosol concentrations in the model has a relatively small effect on the aerosol-related uncertainty in the calculated aerosol-cloud forcing between pre-industrial and present day periods. One factor is the low sensitivity of present-day aerosol to natural emissions that determine the pre-industrial aerosol state. But the major cause of the weak constraint is that the full uncertainty space of the model generates a large number of model variants that are "equally acceptable" compared to present-day aerosol observations. The narrow range of aerosol concentrations in the observationally constrained model gives the impression of low aerosol model uncertainty, but this hides a range of very different aerosol models. These multiple so-called "equifinal" model variants predict a wide range of forcings. Equifinality in the aerosol model means that tuning of a small number of model processes to achieve model-observation agreement could give a misleading impression of model robustness.

  12. Forcings and chaos in interannual to decadal climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Hansen, J.

    1997-12-31

    We investigate the roles of climate forcings and chaos in climate variability via a series of climate simulations for 1979-95 in which we add forcings one-by-one. Ensembles of simulations are carried out for a given forcing to allow study of predictability, chaos and significance. These experiments suggest that most interannual climate variability in the period 1979-95 at middle and high latitudes is chaotic, i.e., unforced. But observed SST anomalies account for much of the variability over land at low latitudes and a small portion of the variability at high latitudes. The radiative forcings, both natural and anthropogenic, leave clear signatures in the simulated climate change. Pinatubo aerosols warm the stratosphere and cool the surface globally, and in most places cause a tendency for regional surface cooling. Ozone depletion cools the lower stratosphere, troposphere and surface, steepening the temperature lapse rate in the troposphere. But the well-mixed anthropogenic greenhouse gases cause a surface warming which, over the 17 year time scale, more than offsets these cooling mechanisms. Observed stratospheric, tropospheric and surface temperatures reveal evidence of climate response to stratospheric aerosols, ozone depletion, and increasing greenhouse gases.

  13. Time Series of Aerosol Column Optical Depth at the Barrow, Alaska, ARM Climate Research Facility for 2008 Fourth Quarter 2009 ARM and Climate Change Prediction Program Metric Report

    SciTech Connect

    C Flynn; AS Koontz; JH Mather

    2009-09-01

    The uncertainties in current estimates of anthropogenic radiative forcing are dominated by the effects of aerosols, both in relation to the direct absorption and scattering of radiation by aerosols and also with respect to aerosol-related changes in cloud formation, longevity, and microphysics (See Figure 1; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Assessment Report 4, 2008). Moreover, the Arctic region in particular is especially sensitive to changes in climate with the magnitude of temperature changes (both observed and predicted) being several times larger than global averages (Kaufman et al. 2009). Recent studies confirm that aerosol-cloud interactions in the arctic generate climatologically significant radiative effects equivalent in magnitude to that of green house gases (Lubin and Vogelmann 2006, 2007). The aerosol optical depth is the most immediate representation of the aerosol direct effect and is also important for consideration of aerosol-cloud interactions, and thus this quantity is essential for studies of aerosol radiative forcing.

  14. MODIS Observation of Aerosols over Southern Africa During SAFARI 2000: Data, Validation, and Estimation of Aerosol Radiative Forcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ichoku, Charles; Kaufman, Yoram; Remer, Lorraine; Chu, D. Allen; Mattoo, Shana; Tanre, Didier; Levy, Robert; Li, Rong-Rong; Kleidman, Richard; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Aerosol properties, including optical thickness and size parameters, are retrieved operationally from the MODIS sensor onboard the Terra satellite launched on 18 December 1999. The predominant aerosol type over the Southern African region is smoke, which is generated from biomass burning on land and transported over the southern Atlantic Ocean. The SAFARI-2000 period experienced smoke aerosol emissions from the regular biomass burning activities as well as from the prescribed burns administered on the auspices of the experiment. The MODIS Aerosol Science Team (MAST) formulates and implements strategies for the retrieval of aerosol products from MODIS, as well as for validating and analyzing them in order to estimate aerosol effects in the radiative forcing of climate as accurately as possible. These activities are carried out not only from a global perspective, but also with a focus on specific regions identified as having interesting characteristics, such as the biomass burning phenomenon in southern Africa and the associated smoke aerosol, particulate, and trace gas emissions. Indeed, the SAFARI-2000 aerosol measurements from the ground and from aircraft, along with MODIS, provide excellent data sources for a more intensive validation and a closer study of the aerosol characteristics over Southern Africa. The SAFARI-2000 ground-based measurements of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from both the automatic Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and handheld Sun photometers have been used to validate MODIS retrievals, based on a sophisticated spatio-temporal technique. The average global monthly distribution of aerosol from MODIS has been combined with other data to calculate the southern African aerosol daily averaged (24 hr) radiative forcing over the ocean for September 2000. It is estimated that on the average, for cloud free conditions over an area of 9 million square kin, this predominantly smoke aerosol exerts a forcing of -30 W/square m C lose to the terrestrial

  15. Mixing state of aerosols over the Indo-Gangetic Plain: Radiative forcing and heating rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Srivastava, R.; Ramachandran, S.

    2012-12-01

    Aerosols are a major atmospheric variable which perturb the Earth-atmosphere radiation balance by absorbing and scattering the solar and terrestrial radiation. Aerosols are produced by natural and anthropogenic processes. The presence of different types of aerosol over a location and aerosols transported from long-range can give rise to different mixing states because of aging and interaction among the different aerosol species. Knowledge of the mixing state of aerosols is important for an accurate assessment of aerosols in climate forcing, as assumptions regarding the mixing state of aerosol and its effect on optical properties can give rise to uncertainties in modeling their direct and indirect effects [1]. Seasonal variations in mixing states of aerosols over an urban (Kanpur) and a rural location (Gandhi College) in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) are determined using the measured and modeled aerosol optical properties, and the impact of aerosol mixing state on aerosol radiative forcing are investigated. IGP is one of the most populated and polluted river basins in the world, rich in fertile lands and agricultural production. Kanpur is an urban, industrial and densely populated city, and has several large/small scale industries and vehicles, while Gandhi College in IGP is a rural village, located southeast of Kanpur. Aerosol optical properties obtained from Aerosol Robotic Network sun/sky radiometers [2] over these two environmentally distinct locations in Indo-Gangetic Plain are used in the study, along with aerosol vertical profiles obtained from CALIPSO (Cloud- Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) lidar observations. Probable mixing state of aerosols is determined utilizing the aerosol optical properties viz., aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo and asymmetry parameter. The coated-sphere Mie calculation requires the refractive index of core and shell species, and the radius of core and shell particles. Core to shell radius

  16. Atmospheric Teleconnection over Eurasia Induced by Aerosol Radiative Forcing during Boreal Spring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Maeng-Ki; Lau, William K. M.; Chin, Mian; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Sud, Y. C.; Walker, Greg K.

    2006-01-01

    The direct effects of aerosols on global and regional climate during boreal spring are investigated based on numerical simulations with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM) with Microphyics of Clouds with the Relaxed Arakawa Schubert Scheme (McRAS), using aerosol forcing functions derived from the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). The authors find that anomalous atmospheric heat sources induced by absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) excite a planetary-scale teleconnection pattern in sea level pressure, temperature, and geopotential height spanning North Africa through Eurasia to the North Pacific. Surface cooling due to direct effects of aerosols is found in the vicinity and downstream of the aerosol source regions, that is, South Asia, East Asia, and northern and western Africa. Significant atmospheric heating is found in regions with large loading of dust (over northern Africa and the Middle East) and black carbon (over Southeast Asia). Paradoxically, the most pronounced feature in aerosol-induced surface temperature is an east west dipole anomaly with strong cooling over the Caspian Sea and warming over central and northeastern Asia, where aerosol concentrations are low. Analyses of circulation anomalies show that the dipole anomaly is a part of an atmospheric teleconnection pattern driven by atmospheric heating anomalies induced by absorbing aerosols in the source regions, but the influence was conveyed globally through barotropic energy dispersion and sustained by feedback processes associated with the regional circulations. The surface temperature signature associated with the aerosol-induced teleconnection bears striking resemblance to the spatial pattern of observed long-term trend in surface temperature over Eurasia. Additionally, the boreal spring wave train pattern is similar to that reported by Fukutomi et al. associated with the boreal summer

  17. Sensitivity studies for incorporating the direct effect of sulfate aerosols into climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, Mary Rawlings Lamberton

    2000-09-01

    Aerosols have been identified as a major element of the climate system known to scatter and absorb solar and infrared radiation, but the development of procedures for representing them is still rudimentary. This study addresses the need to improve the treatment of sulfate aerosols in climate models by investigating how sensitive radiative particles are to varying specific sulfate aerosol properties. The degree to which sulfate particles absorb or scatter radiation, termed the direct effect, varies with the size distribution of particles, the aerosol mass density, the aerosol refractive indices, the relative humidity and the concentration of the aerosol. This study develops 504 case studies of altering sulfate aerosol chemistry, size distributions, refractive indices and densities at various ambient relative humidity conditions. Ammonium sulfate and sulfuric acid aerosols are studied with seven distinct size distributions at a given mode radius with three corresponding standard deviations implemented from field measurements. These test cases are evaluated for increasing relative humidity. As the relative humidity increases, the complex index of refraction and the mode radius for each distribution correspondingly change. Mie theory is employed to obtain the radiative properties for each case study. The case studies are then incorporated into a box model, the National Center of Atmospheric Research's (NCAR) column radiation model (CRM), and NCAR's community climate model version 3 (CCM3) to determine how sensitive the radiative properties and potential climatic effects are to altering sulfate properties. This study found the spatial variability of the sulfate aerosol leads to regional areas of intense aerosol forcing (W/m2). These areas are particularly sensitive to altering sulfate properties. Changes in the sulfate lognormal distribution standard deviation can lead to substantial regional differences in the annual aerosol forcing greater than 2 W/m 2. Changes in the

  18. The Use of MODIS Instrument on the EOS-Terra Satellite to Assess the Impact of Aerosol on Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kaufman, Y.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Terra will derive the aerosol optical thickness and properties. The aerosol properties can be used to distinguish between natural and human-made aerosol. In the polar orbit Terra will measure aerosol only once a day, around 10:30 am. How will we use this information to study the global radiative impacts of aerosol on climate? We shall present a strategy to address this problem. It includes the following steps: 1) From the Terra aerosol optical thickness and size distribution model we derive the effect of aerosol on reflection of solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere. In a sensitivity study we show that the effect of aerosol on solar fluxes can be derived 10 times more accurately from the MODIS data than derivation of the optical thickness itself. Applications to data over several regions will be given. 2) Using 1/2 million AERONET global data of aerosol spectral optical thickness we show that the aerosol optical thickness and properties during the Terra 10:30 pass are equivalent to the daily average. Due to the aerosol lifetime of several days measurements at this time of the day are enough to assess the daily impact of aerosol on radiation. 3) Aerosol impact on the top of the atmosphere is only part of the climate question. The INDOEX experiment showed that addressing the impact of aerosol on climate, requires also measurements of the aerosol forcing at the surface. This can be done by a combination of measurements of MODIS and AERONET data.

  19. Can satellite-derived aerosol optical depth quantify the surface aerosol radiative forcing?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Hui; Ceamanos, Xavier; Roujean, Jean-Louis; Carrer, Dominique; Xue, Yong

    2014-12-01

    Aerosols play an important role in the climate of the Earth through aerosol radiative forcing (ARF). Nowadays, aerosol particles are detected, quantified and monitored by remote sensing techniques using low Earth orbit (LEO) and geostationary (GEO) satellites. In the present article, the use of satellite-derived AOD (aerosol optical depth) products is investigated in order to quantify on a daily basis the ARF at the surface level (SARF). By daily basis we mean that an average SARF value is computed every day based upon the available AOD satellite measurements for each station. In the first part of the study, the performance of four state-of-art different AOD products (MODIS-DT, MODIS-DB, MISR, and SEVIRI) is assessed through comparison against ground-based AOD measurements from 24 AERONET stations located in Europe and Africa during a 6-month period. While all AOD products are found to be comparable in terms of measured value (RMSE of 0.1 for low and average AOD values), a higher number of AOD estimates is made available by GEO satellites due to their enhanced frequency of scan. Experiments show a general lower agreement of AOD estimates over the African sites (RMSE of 0.2), which show the highest aerosol concentrations along with the occurrence of dust aerosols, coarse particles, and bright surfaces. In the second part of this study, the lessons learned about the confidence in aerosol burden derived from satellites are used to estimate SARF under clear sky conditions. While the use of AOD products issued from GEO observations like SEVIRI brings improvement in the SARF estimates with regard to LEO-based AOD products, the resulting absolute bias (13 W/m2 in average when AERONET AOD is used as reference) is judged to be still high in comparison with the average values of SARF found in this study (from - 25 W/m2 to - 43 W/m2) and also in the literature (from - 10 W/m2 to - 47 W/m2).

  20. Aerosol climate time series from ESA Aerosol_cci (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holzer-Popp, T.

    2013-12-01

    Within the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) the Aerosol_cci project (mid 2010 - mid 2013, phase 2 proposed 2014-2016) has conducted intensive work to improve algorithms for the retrieval of aerosol information from European sensors AATSR (3 algorithms), PARASOL, MERIS (3 algorithms), synergetic AATSR/SCIAMACHY, OMI and GOMOS. Whereas OMI and GOMOS were used to derive absorbing aerosol index and stratospheric extinction profiles, respectively, Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and Angstrom coefficient were retrieved from the other sensors. Global datasets for 2008 were produced and validated versus independent ground-based data and other satellite data sets (MODIS, MISR). An additional 17-year dataset is currently generated using ATSR-2/AATSR data. During the three years of the project, intensive collaborative efforts were made to improve the retrieval algorithms focusing on the most critical modules. The team agreed on the use of a common definition for the aerosol optical properties. Cloud masking was evaluated, but a rigorous analysis with a pre-scribed cloud mask did not lead to improvement for all algorithms. Better results were obtained using a post-processing step in which sudden transitions, indicative of possible occurrence of cloud contamination, were removed. Surface parameterization, which is most critical for the nadir only algorithms (MERIS and synergetic AATSR / SCIAMACHY) was studied to a limited extent. The retrieval results for AOD, Ångström exponent (AE) and uncertainties were evaluated by comparison with data from AERONET (and a limited amount of MAN) sun photometer and with satellite data available from MODIS and MISR. Both level2 and level3 (gridded daily) datasets were validated. Several validation metrics were used (standard statistical quantities such as bias, rmse, Pearson correlation, linear regression, as well as scoring approaches to quantitatively evaluate the spatial and temporal correlations against AERONET), and in some cases

  1. Impact of carbonaceous aerosol emissions on regional climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roeckner, E.; Stier, P.; Feichter, J.; Kloster, S.; Esch, M.; Fischer-Bruns, I.

    2006-11-01

    The past and future evolution of atmospheric composition and climate has been simulated with a version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The system consists of the atmosphere, including a detailed representation of tropospheric aerosols, the land surface, and the ocean, including a model of the marine biogeochemistry which interacts with the atmosphere via the dust and sulfur cycles. In addition to the prescribed concentrations of carbon dioxide, ozone and other greenhouse gases, the model is driven by natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic aerosol), and by emissions of mineral dust, sea salt, sulfur, black carbon (BC) and particulate organic matter (POM). Transient climate simulations were performed for the twentieth century and extended into the twenty-first century, according to SRES scenario A1B, with two different assumptions on future emissions of carbonaceous aerosols (BC, POM). In the first experiment, BC and POM emissions decrease over Europe and China but increase at lower latitudes (central and South America, Africa, Middle East, India, Southeast Asia). In the second experiment, the BC and POM emissions are frozen at their levels of year 2000. According to these experiments the impact of projected changes in carbonaceaous aerosols on the global mean temperature is negligible, but significant changes are found at low latitudes. This includes a cooling of the surface, enhanced precipitation and runoff, and a wetter surface. These regional changes in surface climate are caused primarily by the atmospheric absorption of sunlight by increasing BC levels and, subsequently, by thermally driven circulations which favour the transport of moisture from the adjacent oceans. The vertical redistribution of solar energy is particularly large during the dry season in central Africa when the anomalous atmospheric heating of up to 60 W m-2 and a corresponding decrease in surface solar radiation leads to a marked surface cooling, reduced

  2. Towards a Global Aerosol Climatology: Preliminary Trends in Tropospheric Aerosol Amounts and Corresponding Impact on Radiative Forcing between 1950 and 1990

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tegen, Ina; Koch, Dorothy; Lacis, Andrew A.; Sato, Makiko

    1999-01-01

    A global aerosol climatology is needed in the study of decadal temperature change due to natural and anthropogenic forcing of global climate change. A preliminary aerosol climatology has been developed from global transport models for a mixture of sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols from fossil fuel burning, including also contributions from other major aerosol types such as soil dust and sea salt. The aerosol distributions change for the period of 1950 to 1990 due to changes in emissions of SO2 and carbon particles from fossil fuel burning. The optical thickness of fossil fuel derived aerosols increased by nearly a factor of 3 during this period, with particularly strong increase in eastern Asia over the whole time period. In countries where environmental laws came into effect since the early 1980s (e.g. US and western Europe), emissions and consequently aerosol optical thicknesses did not increase considerably after 1980, resulting in a shift in the global distribution pattern over this period. In addition to the optical thickness, aerosol single scattering albedos may have changed during this period due to different trends in absorbing black carbon and reflecting sulfate aerosols. However, due to the uncertainties in the emission trends, this change cannot be determined with any confidence. Radiative forcing of this aerosol distribution is calculated for several scenarios, resulting in a wide range of uncertainties for top-of-atmosphere (TOA) forcings. Uncertainties in the contribution of the strongly absorbing black carbon aerosol leads to a range in TOA forcings of ca. -0.5 to + 0.1 Wm (exp. -2), while the change in aerosol distributions between 1950 to 1990 leads to a change of -0.1 to -0.3 Wm (exp. -2), for fossil fuel derived aerosol with a "moderate" contribution of black carbon aerosol.

  3. An Energetic Perspective on Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Interactions with Atmospheric Wave Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosseinpour, F.; Wilcox, E. M.; Colarco, P. R.

    2014-12-01

    Aerosols have the capability to alter regional-scale atmospheric circulations. A better understanding of the contribution of aerosols to multi-scale atmospheric phenomena and their transient changes is crucial for efforts to evaluate climate predictions using next generation climate models. In this study we address the following questions: (1) Is there a mechanistic relationship between variability of oceanic dust aerosol forcing and transient changes in the African easterly jet- African easterly wave (AEJ-AEW) system? (2) What are the long-term impacts of possible aerosol-wave interactions on climate dynamics of eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean and western African monsoon (WAM) region during boreal summer seasons? Our hypothesis is that aerosol radiative forcing may act as additional energy source to fuel the development of African easterly waves on the northern and southern sides of the AEJ. Evidence in support of this hypothesis is presented based on analysis of an ensemble of NASA satellite data sets, including aerosol optical thickness (AOT) observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) and the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS), as well as an atmospheric reanalysis from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and a simulation of global aerosol distributions made with the Goddard Earth Observing System Model version 5 (GEOS-5) Earth system model with meteorology constrained by MERRA and an assimilation of MODIS AOT (MERRAero). We propose that the impacts of Saharan aerosols on the regional climate dynamics occur through contributions to the eddy energy of waves with 2—7-day and 7—11-day variability.

  4. Assessing the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific storm track using a multiscale global climate model.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan H; Molina, Mario J

    2014-05-13

    Atmospheric aerosols affect weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track, using a multiscale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and preindustrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by -2.5 and +1.3 W m(-2), respectively, by emission changes from preindustrial to present day, and an increased cloud top height indicates invigorated midlatitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides, for the first time to the authors' knowledge, a global perspective of the effects of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multiscale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on a global scale. PMID:24733923

  5. Assessing the Effects of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Pacific Storm Track Using a Multiscale Global Climate Model

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J.; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan; Molina, Mario J.

    2014-05-13

    Atmospheric aerosols impact weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track using a multi-scale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and pre-industrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by - 2.5 and + 1.3 W m-2, respectively, by emission changes from pre-industrial to present day, and an increased cloud-top height indicates invigorated mid-latitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides for the first time a global perspective of the impacts of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multi-scale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on the global scale.

  6. A new method for evaluating the impact of vertical distribution on aerosol radiative forcing in general circulation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vuolo, M. R.; Schulz, M.; Balkanski, Y.; Takemura, T.

    2014-01-01

    The quantification and understanding of direct aerosol forcing is essential in the study of climate. One of the main issues that makes its quantification difficult is the lack of a complete understanding of the role of the vertical distribution of aerosols and clouds. This work aims at reducing the uncertainty of aerosol top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) forcing due to the vertical superposition of several short-lived atmospheric components, in particular different aerosol species and clouds. We propose a method to quantify the contribution of different parts of the atmospheric column to the TOA forcing as well as to evaluate the contribution to model differences that is exclusively due to different spatial distributions of aerosols and clouds. We investigate the contribution of aerosol above, below and in clouds by using added diagnostics in the aerosol-climate model LMDz. We also compute the difference between the TOA forcing of the ensemble of the aerosols and the sum of the forcings from individual species in clear sky. This difference is found to be moderate for the global average (14%) but can reach high values regionally (up to 100%). Nonlinear effects are even more important when superposing aerosols and clouds. Four forcing computations are performed: one where the full aerosol 3-D distribution is used, and then three where aerosols are confined to regions above, inside and below clouds, respectively. We find that the TOA forcing of aerosols depends crucially on the presence of clouds and on their position relative to that of the aerosol, in particular for black carbon (BC). We observe a strong enhancement of the TOA forcing of BC above clouds, attenuation for BC below clouds, and a moderate enhancement when BC is found within clouds. BC above clouds accounts for only about 30% of the total BC optical depth but for 55% of the forcing, while forcing efficiency increases by a factor of 7.5 when passing from below to above clouds. The different behaviour of forcing

  7. Reducing the Uncertainties in Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kahn, Ralph A.

    2011-01-01

    Airborne particles, which include desert and soil dust, wildfire smoke, sea salt, volcanic ash, black carbon, natural and anthropogenic sulfate, nitrate, and organic aerosol, affect Earth's climate, in part by reflecting and absorbing sunlight. This paper reviews current status, and evaluates future prospects for reducing the uncertainty aerosols contribute to the energy budget of Earth, which at present represents a leading factor limiting the quality of climate predictions. Information from satellites is critical for this work, because they provide frequent, global coverage of the diverse and variable atmospheric aerosol load. Both aerosol amount and type must be determined. Satellites are very close to measuring aerosol amount at the level-of-accuracy needed, but aerosol type, especially how bright the airborne particles are, cannot be constrained adequately by current techniques. However, satellite instruments can map out aerosol air mass type, which is a qualitative classification rather than a quantitative measurement, and targeted suborbital measurements can provide the required particle property detail. So combining satellite and suborbital measurements, and then using this combination to constrain climate models, will produce a major advance in climate prediction.

  8. Role of Climate Change in Global Predictions of Future Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liao, Hong; Chen, Wei-Ting; Seinfeld, John H.

    2006-01-01

    A unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model II is applied to simulate an equilibrium CO2-forced climate in the year 2100 to examine the effects of climate change on global distributions of tropospheric ozone and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust aerosols. The year 2100 CO2 concentration as well as the anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors and aerosols/aerosol precursors are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2. Year 2100 global O3 and aerosol burdens predicted with changes in both climate and emissions are generally 5-20% lower than those simulated with changes in emissions alone; as exceptions, the nitrate burden is 38% lower, and the secondary organic aerosol burden is 17% higher. Although the CO2-driven climate change alone is predicted to reduce the global O3 concentrations over or near populated and biomass burning areas because of slower transport, enhanced biogenic hydrocarbon emissions, decomposition of peroxyacetyl nitrate at higher temperatures, and the increase of O3 production by increased water vapor at high NOx levels. The warmer climate influences aerosol burdens by increasing aerosol wet deposition, altering climate-sensitive emissions, and shifting aerosol thermodynamic equilibrium. Climate change affects the estimates of the year 2100 direct radiative forcing as a result of the climate-induced changes in burdens and different climatological conditions; with full gas-aerosol coupling and accounting for ozone and direct radiative forcings by the O2, sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, and organic carbon are predicted to be +0.93, -0.72, -1.0, +1.26, and -0.56 W m(exp -2), respectively, using present-day climate and year 2100 emissions, while they are predicted to be +0.76, -0.72, 0.74, +0.97, and -0.58 W m(exp -2

  9. Past and future direct radiative forcing of nitrate aerosol in East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Jiandong; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Liao, Hong; Chang, Wenyuan

    2015-08-01

    Nitrate as a rapidly increasing aerosol species in recent years affects the present climate and potentially has large implications on the future climate. In this study, the long-term direct radiative forcing (DRF) of nitrate aerosol is investigated using State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and the aerosol dataset simulated by a chemical transport model with focus on East Asia. The DRF due to other aerosols, especially sulfate, is also evaluated for comparisons. Although the chemical transport model underestimates the magnitudes of nitrate and sulfate aerosols when compared with Chinese site observations, some insights into the significances of nitrate climate effects still emerge. The present-day global annual mean all-sky DRF of nitrate is calculated to be -0.025 W m-2 relative to the preindustrial era, which is much weaker than -0.37 W m-2 for sulfate. However, nitrate DRF may become increasingly important in the future especially over East Asia, given the expectation that decreasing trend in global sulfate continues while the projected nitrate maintains at the present level for a mid-range forcing scenario and even be a factor of two larger by the end of the 21st century for high emission scenarios. For example, the anthropogenic nitrate DRF of -2.0 W m-2 over eastern China could persist until the 2050s, and nitrate is projected to account for over 60 % of total anthropogenic aerosol DRF over East Asia by 2100. In addition, we illustrate that the regional nitrate DRF and its seasonal variation are sensitive to meteorological parameters, in particular the relative humidity and cloud amount. It thus remains a need for climate models to include more realistically nitrate aerosol in projecting future climate changes.

  10. Anthropogenic Sulfate, Clouds, and Climate Forcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ghan, Steven J.

    1997-01-01

    This research work is a joint effort between research groups at the Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Virginia Tech University, Georgia Institute of Technology, Brookhaven National Laboratory, and Texas A&M University. It has been jointly sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. In this research, a detailed tropospheric aerosol-chemistry model that predicts oxidant concentrations as well as concentrations of sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosols has been coupled to a general circulation model that distinguishes between cloud water mass and cloud droplet number. The coupled model system has been first validated and then used to estimate the radiative impact of anthropogenic sulfur emissions. Both the direct radiative impact of the aerosols and their indirect impact through their influence on cloud droplet number are represented by distinguishing between sulfuric acid vapor and fresh and aged sulfate aerosols, and by parameterizing cloud droplet nucleation in terms of vertical velocity and the number concentration of aged sulfur aerosols. Natural sulfate aerosols, dust, and carbonaceous and nitrate aerosols and their influence on the radiative impact of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, through competition as cloud condensation nuclei, will also be simulated. Parallel simulations with and without anthropogenic sulfur emissions are performed for a global domain. The objectives of the research are: To couple a state-of-the-art tropospheric aerosol-chemistry model with a global climate model. To use field and satellite measurements to evaluate the treatment of tropospheric chemistry and aerosol physics in the coupled model. To use the coupled model to simulate the radiative (and ultimately climatic) impacts of anthropogenic sulfur emissions.

  11. Hydrological sensitivity to greenhouse gases and aerosols in a global climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    KvalevâG, Maria Malene; Samset, BjøRn H.; Myhre, Gunnar

    2013-04-01

    Changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols alter the atmospheric energy budget on different time scales and at different levels in the atmosphere. We study the relationship between global mean precipitation changes, radiative forcing, and surface temperature change since preindustrial times caused by several climate change components (CO2, CH4, sulphate and black carbon (BC) aerosols, and solar forcing) using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model (CESM1.03). We find a fast response in precipitation due to atmospheric instability that correlates with radiative forcing associated with atmospheric absorption and a slower response caused by changes in surface temperature which correlates with radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere. In general, global climate models show large differences in climate response to global warming, but here we find a strong relationship between global mean radiative forcing and global mean precipitation changes that is very consistent with other models, indicating that precipitation changes from a particular forcing mechanism are more robust than previously expected. In addition, we look at the precipitation response and relate it to changes in lifetime of atmospheric water vapor (τ). BC aerosols have a significantly larger impact on changes in τ related to surface temperature compared to greenhouse gases, sulphate aerosols, and solar forcing and are the dominating forcing mechanism affecting fast precipitation in this quantity.

  12. Speciated local aerosol characteristics and radiative forcing at a rural midwestern site

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dillner, Ann Marie

    2000-11-01

    In this research, physical and chemical properties of ambient aerosols were measured at a rural perturbed mid- latitude site (Bondville, IL) and used to calculate the aerosol optical properties and the resulting direct radiative forcing. Size-segregated aerosol samples were collected during the summer of 1997 using three parallel MOUDIs operating at ambient relative humidity. Two sample sets were used to obtain sulfate, organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC), carbonate and total aerosol mass. The third sample set was used to obtain the size-specific and wavelength-dependent extinction efficiency of EC. The measured submicrometer mass concentration was 11.4 +/- 4.0 μg m-3. Ammonium sulfate comprised nearly half of the submicrometer aerosol and OC plus EC comprised 25%. Water content for ammonium sulfate and OC was estimated using both Köhler theory and parameterized water uptake curves from the literature. Water content for internally mixed aerosols was determined using a ZSR method. Aerosol optical properties (extinction efficiency, asymmetry parameter, single scatter albedo) were calculated from measured size distributions and wavelength dependent refractive indexes for each species and for internal and external mixtures using Mie theory. A technique, utilizing transmission measurements through extracts of size segregated ambient aerosol samples, was developed to obtain the extinction efficiency of EC. Measured EC extinction efficiencies ranged from 7.3 to 1.7 m2 g-1 at 550 nm, depending on particle diameter. Normalized direct aerosol radiative forcing (W g-1 ) was calculated using the Column Radiation Module (CRM) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM3). Aerosol optical properties, used in the model, were assumed to be uniform throughout the lowest one kilometer of the atmosphere. The normalized forcing due to ammonium sulfate was -340 +/- 10 W g-1. OC was 1/3 larger and residue was 1/3 smaller. EC within an

  13. Satellite-derived aerosol radiative forcing from the 2004 British Columbia wildfires

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Guo, S.; Leighton, H.

    2008-01-01

    The British Columbia wildfires of 2004 was one of the largest wildfire events in the last ten years in Canada. Both the shortwave and longwave smoke aerosol radiative forcing at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) are investigated using data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments. Relationships between the radiative forcing fluxes (??F) and wildfire aerosol optical thickness (AOT) at 0.55 ??m (??0.55) are deduced for both noontime instantaneous forcing and diurnally averaged forcing. The noontime averaged instantaneous shortwave and longwave smoke aerosol radiative forcing at the TOA are 45.8??27.5 W m-2 and -12.6??6.9 W m-2, respectively for a selected study area between 62??N and 68??N in latitude and 125??W and 145??W in longitude over three mainly clear-sky days (23-25 June). The derived diurnally averaged smoke aerosol shortwave radiative forcing is 19.9??12.1 W m-2 for a mean ??0.55 of 1.88??0.71 over the same time period. The derived ??F-?? relationship can be implemented in the radiation scheme used in regional climate models to assess the effect of wildfire aerosols.

  14. Can Aerosol Forcing Compensate the Greenhouse Gas Warming?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feichter, J.; Liepert, B.; Lohmann, U.; Roeckner, E.

    2002-12-01

    Fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning modify the chemical composition of the atmosphere by enhancing aerosol particles (AP) and greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. These changes induce opposite effects on temperature, i.e. warming through increasing GHG levels and cooling through increasing AP concentrations. While increasing GHGs tend to enhance the hydrological cycle, the APs have the opposite effect: First, through climate cooling and, second, through a reduction in solar radiation absorbed at the Earth's surface. Moreover, in contrast to GHGs, there is a strong coupling between aerosols, clouds and precipitation formation such that AP induced changes in the hydrological cycle feed back on the aerosol distribution. We performed simulations with of a low-resolution version (T30 spectral truncation) of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4 coupled to an ocean mixed layer model and a thermodynamic sea ice model. Furthermore, the atmospheric model solves prognostic equations for the mass mixing ratio of dimethyl sulfide, sulfur dioxide, sulfate aerosols, organic and black carbon aerosols, mineral dust, sea-salt, cloud liquid water, cloud ice and for the cloud droplet and ice crystal number concentration. It also includes a fully coupled aerosol-cloud microphysics module. We performed three pairs of climate equilibrium experiments. Each pair consists of two simulations: one represents pre-industrial (year 1870) (PI) and one present-day (early 1980's) conditions (PD). In the first pair we change the greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations and apply the model's operational aerosol climatology as PD conditions. In the second pair we calculate the aerosol interactively and we change the anthropogenic aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions and keep the GHG concentrations fixed to PD level. In the third pair we change both, GHG concentrations and aerosol emissions. The climate responses and the basic mechanisms will be discussed.

  15. Sources, Transport, and Climate Impacts of Biomass Burning Aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chin, Mian

    2010-01-01

    In this presentation, I will first talk about fundamentals of modeling of biomass burning emissions of aerosols, then show the results of GOCART model simulated biomass burning aerosols. I will compare the model results with observations of satellite and ground-based network in terms of total aerosol optical depth, aerosol absorption optical depth, and vertical distributions. Finally the long-range transport of biomass burning aerosols and the climate effects will be addressed. I will also discuss the uncertainties associated with modeling and observations of biomass burning aerosols

  16. Estimating the Radiative Forcing of Carbonaceous Aerosols over California based on Satellite and Ground Observations

    SciTech Connect

    Xu, Yangyang; Bahadur, R.; Zhao, Chun; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2013-10-04

    Carbonaceous aerosols have the potential to impact climate both through directly absorbing incoming solar radiation, and by indirectly affecting the cloud layer. To quantify this impact recent modeling studies have made great efforts to simulate both the spatial and temporal distribution of carbonaceous aerosols and their associated radiative forcing. This study makes the first observationally constrained assessment of the direct radiative forcing of carbonaceous aerosols at a regional scale over California. By exploiting multiple observations (including ground sites and satellites), we constructed the distribution of aerosol optical depths and aerosol absorption optical depths over California for a ten-year period (2000-2010). The total solar absorption was then partitioned into contributions from elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC) and dust aerosols using a newly developed scheme. Aerosol absorption optical depth due to carbonaceous aerosols (EC and OC) at 440 nm is 50%-200% larger than natural dust, with EC contributing the bulk (70%-90%). Observationally constrained EC absorption agrees reasonably well with estimates from regional transport models, but the model underestimates the OC AAOD by at least 50%. We estimate that the TOA warming from carbonaceous aerosols is 0.7 W/m2 and the TOA forcing due to OC is close to zero. The atmospheric heating of carbonaceous aerosols is 2.2-2.9 W/m2, of which EC contributed about 80-90%. The atmospheric heating due to OC is estimated to be 0.1 to 0.4 W/m2, larger than model simulations. The surface brightening due to EC reduction over the last two decades is estimated to be 1.5-3.5 W/m2.

  17. Do Diurnal Aerosol Changes Affect Daily Average Radiative Forcing?

    SciTech Connect

    Kassianov, Evgueni I.; Barnard, James C.; Pekour, Mikhail S.; Berg, Larry K.; Michalsky, Joseph J.; Lantz, K.; Hodges, G. B.

    2013-06-17

    Strong diurnal variability of aerosol has been observed frequently for many urban/industrial regions. How this variability may alter the direct aerosol radiative forcing (DARF), however, is largely unknown. To quantify changes in the time-averaged DARF, we perform an assessment of 29 days of high temporal resolution ground-based data collected during the Two-Column Aerosol Project (TCAP) on Cape Cod, which is downwind of metropolitan areas. We demonstrate that strong diurnal changes of aerosol loading (about 20% on average) have a negligible impact on the 24-h average DARF, when daily averaged optical properties are used to find this quantity. However, when there is a sparse temporal sampling of aerosol properties, which may preclude the calculation of daily averaged optical properties, large errors (up to 100%) in the computed DARF may occur. We describe a simple way of reducing these errors, which suggests the minimal temporal sampling needed to accurately find the forcing.

  18. Do diurnal aerosol changes affect daily average radiative forcing?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kassianov, Evgueni; Barnard, James; Pekour, Mikhail; Berg, Larry K.; Michalsky, Joseph; Lantz, Kathy; Hodges, Gary

    2013-06-01

    diurnal variability of aerosol has been observed frequently for many urban/industrial regions. How this variability may alter the direct aerosol radiative forcing (DARF), however, is largely unknown. To quantify changes in the time-averaged DARF, we perform an assessment of 29 days of high temporal resolution ground-based data collected during the Two-Column Aerosol Project on Cape Cod, which is downwind of metropolitan areas. We demonstrate that strong diurnal changes of aerosol loading (about 20% on average) have a negligible impact on the 24-h average DARF when daily averaged optical properties are used to find this quantity. However, when there is a sparse temporal sampling of aerosol properties, which may preclude the calculation of daily averaged optical properties, large errors (up to 100%) in the computed DARF may occur. We describe a simple way of reducing these errors, which suggests the minimal temporal sampling needed to accurately find the forcing.

  19. Anomalies of the Asian Monsoon Induced by Aerosol Forcings

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, M. K.

    2004-01-01

    Impacts of aerosols on the Asian summer monsoon are studied using the NASA finite volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM), with radiative forcing derived from three-dimensional distributions of five aerosol species i.e., black carbon, organic carbon, soil dust, and sea salt from the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport Model (GOCART). Results show that absorbing aerosols, i.e., black carbon and dust, induce large-scale upper-level heating anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau in April and May, ushering in & early onset of the Indian summer monsoon. Absorbing aerosols also I i enhance lower-level heating and anomalous ascent over northern India, intensifying the Indian monsoon. Overall, the aerosol-induced large-scale surface' temperature cooling leads to a reduction of monsoon rainfall over the East Asia continent, and adjacent oceanic regions.

  20. A regional climate study of aerosol impacts on Indian monsoon and precipitations over the Himalayas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solmon, F.; Von Hardenberg, J.; Nair, V.; Palazzi, E.

    2013-12-01

    In the context of the PAPRIKA program we are studying the potential effects of aerosol particle on Indian climate and Himalayan region. Using the RegCM4 regional climate model we performed some experiments including on-line representation of natural and anthropogenic aerosols for present day and future conditions over the CORDEX-India domain. Dynamical boundary forcing is taken for ERAI-Interim over the period 2000-2010, and chemical boundary-conditions are prescribed as a monthly climatology form an ECEARTH/CAM simulation for present day. Different set of anthropogenic emissions (SO2, carbonaceous aerosols) are considered (IPCC RCP4.5 and REAS) whereas natural aerosol (dust and sea-salt) are calculated on line. In order to account for aerosol radiative feedback on surface energy budget over the oceans, we also implemented a 'q-flux' slab ocean model as an alternative to pure SST forcing. After a step of validation of aerosol simulation against observations, we investigate through a series of experiments the dynamical feedback of direct radiative effect of aerosol over this domain, focusing specifically on Indian Monsoon and precipitation over the Himalayas. We discriminate the effect of anthropogenic vs. natural aerosol while outlining the main mechanism of the regional climate response, as well as the sensitivity to emissions inventory. Our results will be discussed notably against previous GCM based studies. Finally we will possibly discuss future projections based on RCP4.5 EC-EARTH forcing and including aerosol effects, as well as the potential radiative effects of absorbing aerosol deposition on the Himalayan snow covers.

  1. Aerosol size distribution and radiative forcing response to anthropogenically driven historical changes in biogenic secondary organic aerosol formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Andrea, S. D.; Acosta Navarro, J. C.; Farina, S. C.; Scott, C. E.; Rap, A.; Farmer, D. K.; Spracklen, D. V.; Riipinen, I.; Pierce, J. R.

    2015-03-01

    Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) have changed in the past millennium due to changes in land use, temperature, and CO2 concentrations. Recent reconstructions of BVOC emissions have predicted that global isoprene emissions have decreased, while monoterpene and sesquiterpene emissions have increased; however, all three show regional variability due to competition between the various influencing factors. In this work, we use two modeled estimates of BVOC emissions from the years 1000 to 2000 to test the effect of anthropogenic changes to BVOC emissions on secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation, global aerosol size distributions, and radiative effects using the GEOS-Chem-TOMAS (Goddard Earth Observing System; TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional) global aerosol microphysics model. With anthropogenic emissions (e.g., SO2, NOx, primary aerosols) turned off and BVOC emissions changed from year 1000 to year 2000 values, decreases in the number concentration of particles of size Dp > 80 nm (N80) of > 25% in year 2000 relative to year 1000 were predicted in regions with extensive land-use changes since year 1000 which led to regional increases in the combined aerosol radiative effect (direct and indirect) of > 0.5 W m-2 in these regions. We test the sensitivity of our results to BVOC emissions inventory, SOA yields, and the presence of anthropogenic emissions; however, the qualitative response of the model to historic BVOC changes remains the same in all cases. Accounting for these uncertainties, we estimate millennial changes in BVOC emissions cause a global mean direct effect of between +0.022 and +0.163 W m-2 and the global mean cloud-albedo aerosol indirect effect of between -0.008 and -0.056 W m-2. This change in aerosols, and the associated radiative forcing, could be a largely overlooked and important anthropogenic aerosol effect on regional climates.

  2. The role of aerosols in cloud drop parameterizations and its applications in global climate models

    SciTech Connect

    Chuang, C.C.; Penner, J.E.

    1996-04-01

    The characteristics of the cloud drop size distribution near cloud base are initially determined by aerosols that serve as cloud condensation nuclei and the updraft velocity. We have developed parameterizations relating cloud drop number concentration to aerosol number and sulfate mass concentrations and used them in a coupled global aerosol/general circulation model (GCM) to estimate the indirect aerosol forcing. The global aerosol model made use of our detailed emissions inventories for the amount of particulate matter from biomass burning sources and from fossil fuel sources as well as emissions inventories of the gas-phase anthropogenic SO{sub 2}. This work is aimed at validating the coupled model with the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program measurements and assessing the possible magnitude of the aerosol-induced cloud effects on climate.

  3. Linearity of Climate Response to Increases in Black Carbon Aerosols

    SciTech Connect

    Mahajan, Salil; Evans, Katherine J.; Hack, James J.; Truesdale, John

    2013-04-19

    The impact of absorbing aerosols on global climate are not completely understood. Here, we present results of idealized experiments conducted with the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) coupled to a slab ocean model (CAM4-SOM) to simulate the climate response to increases in tropospheric black carbon aerosols (BC) by direct and semi-direct effects. CAM4-SOM was forced with 0, 1x, 2x, 5x and 10x an estimate of the present day concentration of BC while maintaining their estimated present day global spatial and vertical distribution. The top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing of BC in these experiments is positive (warming) and increases linearly as the BC burden increases. The total semi-direct effect for the 1x experiment is positive but becomes increasingly negative for higher BC concentrations. The global average surface temperature response is found to be a linear function of the TOA radiative forcing. The climate sensitivity to BC from these experiments is estimated to be 0.42 K $ W^{-1} m^{2}$ when the semi-direct effects are accounted for and 0.22 K $ W^{-1} m^{2}$ with only the direct effects considered. Global average precipitation decreases linearly as BC increases, with a precipitation sensitivity to atmospheric absorption of 0.4 $\\%$ $W^{-1}m^{2}$ . The hemispheric asymmetry of BC also causes an increase in southward cross-equatorial heat transport and a resulting northward shift of the inter-tropical convergence zone in the simulations at a rate of 4$^{\\circ}$N $ PW^{-1}$. Global average mid- and high-level clouds decrease, whereas the low-level clouds increase linearly with BC. The increase in marine stratocumulus cloud fraction over the south tropical Atlantic is caused by increased BC-induced diabatic heating of the free troposphere.

  4. Aerosol-Induced Changes of Convective Cloud Anvils Produce Strong Climate Warming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koren, I.; Remer, L. A.; Altaratz, O.; Martins, J. V.; Davidi, A.

    2010-01-01

    The effect of aerosol on clouds poses one of the largest uncertainties in estimating the anthropogenic contribution to climate change. Small human-induced perturbations to cloud characteristics via aerosol pathways can create a change in the top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing of hundreds of Wm(exp-2) . Here we focus on links between aerosol and deep convective clouds of the Atlantic and Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zones, noting that the aerosol environment in each region is entirely different. The tops of these vertically developed clouds consisting of mostly ice can reach high levels of the atmosphere, overshooting the lower stratosphere and reaching altitudes greater than 16 km. We show a link between aerosol, clouds and the free atmosphere wind profile that can change the magnitude and sign of the overall climate radiative forcing. We find that increased aerosol loading is associated with taller cloud towers and anvils. The taller clouds reach levels of enhanced wind speeds that act to spread and thin the anvi1 clouds, increasing areal coverage and decreasing cloud optical depth. The radiative effect of this transition is to create a positive radiative forcing (warming) at top-of-atmosphere. Furthermore we introduce the cloud optical depth (r), cloud height (Z) forcing space and show that underestimation of radiative forcing is likely to occur in cases of non homogenous clouds. Specifically, the mean radiative forcing of towers and anvils in the same scene can be several times greater than simply calculating the forcing from the mean cloud optical depth in the scene. Limitations of the method are discussed, alternative sources of aerosol loading are tested and meteorological variance is restricted, but the trend of taller clouds; increased and thinner anvils associated with increased aerosol loading remains robust through all the different tests and perturbations.

  5. Aerosol-induced changes of convective cloud anvils produce strong climate warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koren, I.; Remer, L. A.; Altaratz, O.; Martins, J. V.; Davidi, A.

    2010-05-01

    The effect of aerosol on clouds poses one of the largest uncertainties in estimating the anthropogenic contribution to climate change. Small human-induced perturbations to cloud characteristics via aerosol pathways can create a change in the top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing of hundreds of Wm-2. Here we focus on links between aerosol and deep convective clouds of the Atlantic and Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zones, noting that the aerosol environment in each region is entirely different. The tops of these vertically developed clouds consisting of mostly ice can reach high levels of the atmosphere, overshooting the lower stratosphere and reaching altitudes greater than 16 km. We show a link between aerosol, clouds and the free atmosphere wind profile that can change the magnitude and sign of the overall climate radiative forcing. We find that increased aerosol loading is associated with taller cloud towers and anvils. The taller clouds reach levels of enhanced wind speeds that act to spread and thin the anvil clouds, increasing areal coverage and decreasing cloud optical depth. The radiative effect of this transition is to create a positive radiative forcing (warming) at top-of-atmosphere. Furthermore we introduce the cloud optical depth (τ), cloud height (Z) forcing space and show that underestimation of radiative forcing is likely to occur in cases of non homogenous clouds. Specifically, the mean radiative forcing of towers and anvils in the same scene can be several times greater than simply calculating the forcing from the mean cloud optical depth in the scene. Limitations of the method are discussed, alternative sources of aerosol loading are tested and meteorological variance is restricted, but the trend of taller clouds, increased and thinner anvils associated with increased aerosol loading remains robust through all the different tests and perturbations.

  6. Quantification of Regional Aerosol Radiative Forcing due to Asian Aerosols through the Indian Efforts the ARFI and ICARB: A perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krishna Moorthy, K.; Suresh Babu, S.; Satheesh, S.

    2012-12-01

    The Asian landmass and adjoining oceans are amongst the high-aerosol laden regions of the globe. Arising out of the activities of the large density of population in this region, through diverse living habits, agricultural practices, transportation, and industry, coupled with abundance of strong natural sources (dust and sea-salt), long-range transport and the contrasting large-scale monsoonal circulations make the aerosol environment over this regions one of the most complex to model and assess the impact. Despite, it is all the more needed to understand the regional and global climate implications of these particles. With a long-term vision, this is addressed through concerted efforts under a regional program, ARFI (Aerosol Radiative Forcing over India) under the Geosphere Biosphere Program of Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), supplemented by field experiments ICARB (Integrated campaigns for Aerosols, gases and Radiation Budget). This effort, involving several national research laboratories, academia and University participant, is one of the biggest chain of aerosol observatories, covering coastal, continental, oceanic, vegetated, arid and high-altitude environment, both remote and urban. This paper provides the perspective of these efforts, spanning over about 3 decades and providing one of the longest primary data on aerosols, and the major outcomes that have relevance to Asia in particular and the globe in general.

  7. Reconstruction of the Tambora forcing with global aerosol models : Challenges and limitations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khodri, Myriam; Zanchettin, Davide; Timmreck, Claudia

    2016-04-01

    It is now generally recognised that volcanic eruptions have an important effect on climate variability from inter-annual to decadal timescales. For the largest tropical volcanic eruptions of the last millennium, simulated volcanic surface cooling derived from climate models often disagrees with the cooling seen in tree-ring-based proxies. Furthermore, cooling estimates from simulations show large uncertainties. Such disagreement can be related to several sources, including inconsistency of the currently available volcanic forcing datasets, unrealistic modelled volcanic forcing, insufficient representation of relevant climate processes, and different background climate states simulated at the time of the eruption. In particular, for eruptions that occurred before the observational period forcing characteristics related to the eruption magnitude and stratospheric aerosol properties are deduced from indirect evidences. So, while climatically relevant forcing properties for recent volcanic eruptions are relatively well constrained by direct observations, large uncertainties remain regarding processes of aerosol formation and evolution in the stratosphere after large tropical eruptions of the remote past. Several coordinated modelling assessments have been defined to frame future modeling activities and constrain the above-mentioned uncertainties. Among these, the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) has endorsed a multi-model assessment focused on the climatic response to strong volcanic eruptions (VolMIP). VolMIP defines a protocol for idealized volcanic-perturbation experiments to improve comparability among climate model results. Identification of a consensual volcanic forcing dataset for the 1815 Tambora eruption is a key step of VolMIP, as it is the largest-magnitude volcanic eruption of the past five centuries and reference for the VolMIP core experiments. Therefore, as a first key step, five current/state-of-the-art global aerosol

  8. Assessing the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific storm track using a multiscale global climate model

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J.; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Molina, Mario J.

    2014-01-01

    Atmospheric aerosols affect weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track, using a multiscale global aerosol–climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and preindustrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by −2.5 and +1.3 W m−2, respectively, by emission changes from preindustrial to present day, and an increased cloud top height indicates invigorated midlatitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides, for the first time to the authors’ knowledge, a global perspective of the effects of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multiscale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on a global scale. PMID:24733923

  9. Atmospheric Teleconnection over Eurasia Induced by Aerosol Radiative Forcing During Boreal Spring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Maeng-Ki; Lau, K. M.; Chin, Mian; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Sud, Y. C.; Walker, Greg K.

    2005-01-01

    The direct effects of aerosols on global and regional climate during boreal spring are investigated based on simulations using the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM) with Microphyics of clouds in Relaxed Arakawa Schubert Scheme (McRAS). The aerosol loading are prescribed from three-dimensional monthly distribution of tropospheric aerosols viz., sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, soil dust, and sea salt from output of the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). The aerosol extinction coefficient, single scattering albedo, and asymmetric factor are computed as wavelength-dependent radiative forcing in the radiative transfer scheme of the fvGCM, and as a function of the aerosol loading and ambient relative humidity. We find that anomalous atmospheric heat sources induced by absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) excites a planetary scale teleconnection pattern in sea level pressure, temperature and geopotential height spanning North Africa through Eurasia to the North Pacific. Surface cooling due to direct effects of aerosols is found in the vicinity and downstream of the aerosol source regions, i.e., South Asia, East Asia, and northern and western Africa. Additionally, atmospheric heating is found in regions with large loading of dust (over Northern Africa, and Middle East), and black carbon (over South-East Asia). Paradoxically, the most pronounced feature in aerosol-induced surface temperature is an east-west dipole anomaly with strong cooling over the Caspian Sea, and warming over central and northeastern Asia, where aerosol concentration are low. Analyses of circulation anomalies show that the dipole anomaly is a part of an atmospheric teleconnection driven by atmospheric heating anomalies induced by absorbing aerosols in the source regions, but the influence was conveyed globally through barotropic energy dispersion and sustained by feedback processes

  10. Radiative Forcing Due to Major Aerosol Emitting Sectors in China and India

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Streets, David G.; Shindell, Drew Todd; Lu, Zifeng; Faluvegi, Greg

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic aerosol sources is essential for making effective emission control decisions to mitigate climate change. We examined the net direct plus indirect radiative forcing caused by carbonaceous aerosol and sulfur emissions in key sectors of China and India using the GISS-E2 chemistry-climate model. Diesel trucks and buses (67 mW/ sq. m) and residential biofuel combustion (52 mW/ sq. m) in India have the largest global mean, annual average forcings due mainly to the direct and indirect effects of BC. Emissions from these two sectors in China have near-zero net global forcings. Coal-fired power plants in both countries exert a negative forcing of about -30 mW/ sq. m from production of sulfate. Aerosol forcings are largest locally, with direct forcings due to residential biofuel combustion of 580 mW/ sq. m over India and 416 mW/ sq. m over China, but they extend as far as North America, Europe, and the Arctic

  11. Stratospheric Aerosol--Observations, Processes, and Impact on Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kresmer, Stefanie; Thomason, Larry W.; von Hobe, Marc; Hermann, Markus; Deshler, Terry; Timmreck, Claudia; Toohey, Matthew; Stenke, Andrea; Schwarz, Joshua P.; Weigel, Ralf; Fueglistaler, Stephan; Prata, Fred J.; Vernier, Jean-Paul; Schlager, Hans; Barnes, John E.; Antuna-Marrero, Juan-Carlos; Fairlie, Duncan; Palm, Mathias; Mahieu, Emmanuel; Notholt, Justus; Rex, Markus; Bingen, Christine; Vanhellemont, Filip; Bourassa, Adam; Plane, John M. C.; Klocke, Daniel; Carn, Simon A.; Clarisse, Lieven; Trickl, Thomas; Neeley, Ryan; James, Alexander D.; Rieger, Landon; Wilson, James C.; Meland, Brian

    2016-01-01

    Interest in stratospheric aerosol and its role in climate have increased over the last decade due to the observed increase in stratospheric aerosol since 2000 and the potential for changes in the sulfur cycle induced by climate change. This review provides an overview about the advances in stratospheric aerosol research since the last comprehensive assessment of stratospheric aerosol was published in 2006. A crucial development since 2006 is the substantial improvement in the agreement between in situ and space-based inferences of stratospheric aerosol properties during volcanically quiescent periods. Furthermore, new measurement systems and techniques, both in situ and space based, have been developed for measuring physical aerosol properties with greater accuracy and for characterizing aerosol composition. However, these changes induce challenges to constructing a long-term stratospheric aerosol climatology. Currently, changes in stratospheric aerosol levels less than 20% cannot be confidently quantified. The volcanic signals tend to mask any nonvolcanically driven change, making them difficult to understand. While the role of carbonyl sulfide as a substantial and relatively constant source of stratospheric sulfur has been confirmed by new observations and model simulations, large uncertainties remain with respect to the contribution from anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions. New evidence has been provided that stratospheric aerosol can also contain small amounts of nonsulfatematter such as black carbon and organics. Chemistry-climate models have substantially increased in quantity and sophistication. In many models the implementation of stratospheric aerosol processes is coupled to radiation and/or stratospheric chemistry modules to account for relevant feedback processes.

  12. A modeling study on the climate impacts of black carbon aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Chien

    2004-02-01

    A three-dimensional interactive aerosol-climate model has been developed and used to study the climatic impact of black carbon (BC) aerosols. When compared with the model's natural variability, significant global-scale changes caused by BC aerosols occurred in surface latent and sensible heat flux, surface net long-wave radiative flux, planetary boundary layer height, convective precipitation (all negative), and low-cloud coverage (positive), all closely related to the hydrological cycle. The most significant regional change caused by BC revealed in this study is in precipitation that occurs in the tropics (shift of precipitation center in the ITCZ) and in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (change in snow depth). Influenced by BC caused changes in cloud cover and surface albedo, the interactive model provides smaller positive all-sky forcing at the top of atmosphere (TOA) and larger negative forcing at the surface than the offline diagnostics (the direct forcings). The actual solar radiative forcings by BC derived from the interactive model also exhibit significant interannual variations that are up to 4 times as large as their means. Based on the revealed changes in cloud radiative forcing by BC, a non-Twomey-Albrecht indirect forcing by BC that alters radiative budgets by changing cloud cover via thermodynamics rather than microphysics is also defined. It has been demonstrated that with an absolute amount more than 2 times higher than that of the TOA forcing, the surface forcing by BC is a very important factor in analyzing the climatic impact of BC. The result of this study suggests that with a constant annual emission of 14 TgC, BC aerosols do not cause a significant change in global-mean surface temperature. The calculated surface temperature change is determined by a subtle balance among changes in surface energy budget as well as in the hydrological cycle, all caused by BC forcing and often compensate each other. The result of this

  13. Anthropogenic Aerosol Radiative Forcing in Asia Derived From Regional Models With Atmospheric and Aerosol Data Assimilation

    SciTech Connect

    Chung, Chul Eddy; Ramanathan, V.; Carmichael, Gregory; Kulkarni, S.; Tang, Youhua; Adhikary, Bhupesh; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun

    2010-07-05

    A high-resolution estimate of monthly 3D aerosol solar heating rates and surface solar fluxes in Asia from 2001 to 2004 is described here. This product stems from an Asian aerosol assimilation project, in which a) the PNNL regional model bounded by the NCEP reanalyses was used to provide meteorology, b) MODIS and AERONET data were integrated for aerosol observations, c) the Iowa aerosol/chemistry model STEM-2K1 used the PNNL meteorology and assimilated aerosol observations, and d) 3D (X-Y-Z) aerosol simulations from the STEM-2K1 were used in the Scripps Monte-Carlo Aerosol Cloud Radiation (MACR) model to produce total and anthropogenic aerosol direct solar forcing for average cloudy skies. The MACR model and STEM both used the PNNL model resolution of 0.45º×0.4º in the horizontal and of 23 layers in the troposphere. The 2001–2004 averaged anthropogenic all-sky aerosol forcing is -1.3 Wm-2 (TOA), +7.3 Wm-2 (atmosphere) and -8.6 Wm-2 (surface) averaged in Asia (60-138°E & Eq. -45°N). In the absence of AERONET SSA assimilation, absorbing aerosol concentration (especially BC aerosol) is much smaller, giving -2.3 Wm-2 (TOA), +4.5 Wm-2 (atmosphere) and -6.8 Wm-2 (surface), averaged in Asia. In the vertical, monthly forcing is mainly concentrated below 600hPa with maxima around 800hPa. Seasonally, low-level forcing is far larger in dry season than in wet season in South Asia, whereas the wet season forcing exceeds the dry season forcing in East Asia. The anthropogenic forcing in the present study is similar to that in Chung et al.’s [2005] in overall magnitude but the former offers fine-scale features and simulated vertical profiles. The interannual variability of the computed anthropogenic forcing is significant and extremely large over major emission outflow areas. In view of this, the present study’s estimate is within the implicated range of the 1999 INDOEX result. However, NCAR/CCSM3

  14. First Evaluation of the CCAM Aerosol Simulation over Africa: Implications for Regional Climate Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horowitz, H.; Garland, R. M.; Thatcher, M. J.; Naidoo, M.; van der Merwe, J.; Landman, W.; Engelbrecht, F.

    2015-12-01

    An accurate representation of African aerosols in climate models is needed to understand the regional and global radiative forcing and climate impacts of aerosols, at present and under future climate change. However, aerosol simulations in regional climate models for Africa have not been well-tested. Africa contains the largest single source of biomass-burning smoke aerosols and dust globally. Although aerosols are short-lived relative to greenhouse gases, black carbon in particular is estimated to be second only to carbon dioxide in contributing to warming on a global scale. Moreover, Saharan dust is exported great distances over the Atlantic Ocean, affecting nutrient transport to regions like the Amazon rainforest, which can further impact climate. Biomass burning aerosols are also exported from Africa, westward from Angola over the Atlantic Ocean and off the southeastern coast of South Africa to the Indian Ocean. Here, we perform the first extensive quantitative evaluation of the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) aerosol simulation against monitored data, focusing on aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations over Africa. We analyze historical regional simulations for 1999 - 2012 from CCAM consistent with the experimental design of CORDEX at 50 km global horizontal resolution, through the dynamical downscaling of ERA-Interim data reanalysis data, with the CMIP5 emissions inventory (RCP8.5 scenario). CCAM has a prognostic aerosol scheme for organic carbon, black carbon, sulfate, and dust, and non-prognostic sea salt. The CCAM AOD at 550nm was compared to AOD (observed at 440nm, adjusted to 550nm with the Ångström exponent) from long-term AERONET stations across Africa. Sites strongly impacted by dust and biomass burning and with long continuous records were prioritized. In general, the model captures the monthly trends of the AERONET data. This presentation provides a basis for understanding how well aerosol particles are represented over Africa in

  15. Aerosol types and radiative forcing estimates over East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhawar, Rohini L.; Lee, Woo-Seop; Rahul, P. R. C.

    2016-09-01

    Using the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite data sets along with the CSIRO-MK 3.6.0 model simulations, we analyzed the aerosol optical depth (AOD) variability during March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA) along with their annual mean variability over East Asia for the period 2006-2012. The CALIPSO measurements correlated well with the MODIS measurements and the CSIRO-MK 3.6.0 model simulations over the spatial distribution patterns of the aerosols, but CALIPSO underestimated the magnitudes of the AOD. Maximum smoke aerosol loading is observed to occur during JJA, as a result of wind transport from Southern China while dust loading dominated during MAM via the transport from desert region. The vertical distribution profiles revealed that there is uniform distribution of smoke aerosols during both MAM and JJA, only differing at the altitude at which they peak; while the dust aerosols during MAM showed a significant distribution from the surface to 10 km altitude and JJA was marked with lower dust loading at the same altitudes. Both dust and smoke aerosols warm the atmosphere in MAM but due to the absorbing nature of smoke aerosols, they cause considerable cooling at the surface which is double when compared to the dust aerosols. The top of the atmosphere aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) due to smoke and dust aerosols is positive in MAM which indicates warming over East Asia. During MAM a consistent declining trend of the surface ARF due to smoke aerosols persisted over the last three decades as conspicuously evidenced from model analysis; the decline is ∼10 W/m2 from 1980 to 2012.

  16. Simulated 2050 aviation radiative forcing from contrails and aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Chih-Chieh; Gettelman, Andrew

    2016-06-01

    The radiative forcing from aviation-induced cloudiness is investigated by using the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5) in the present (2006) and the future (through 2050). Global flight distance is projected to increase by a factor of 4 between 2006 and 2050. However, simulated contrail cirrus radiative forcing in 2050 can reach 87 mW m-2, an increase by a factor of 7 from 2006, and thus does not scale linearly with fuel emission mass. This is due to non-uniform regional increase in air traffic and different sensitivities for contrail radiative forcing in different regions. CAM5 simulations indicate that negative radiative forcing induced by the indirect effect of aviation sulfate aerosols on liquid clouds in 2050 can be as large as -160 mW m-2, an increase by a factor of 4 from 2006. As a result, the net 2050 radiative forcing of contrail cirrus and aviation aerosols may have a cooling effect on the planet. Aviation sulfate aerosols emitted at cruise altitude can be transported down to the lower troposphere, increasing the aerosol concentration, thus increasing the cloud drop number concentration and persistence of low-level clouds. Aviation black carbon aerosols produce a negligible net forcing globally in 2006 and 2050 in this model study. Uncertainties in the methodology and the modeling are significant and discussed in detail. Nevertheless, the projected percentage increase in contrail radiative forcing is important for future aviation impacts. In addition, the role of aviation aerosols in the cloud nucleation processes can greatly influence on the simulated radiative forcing from aircraft-induced cloudiness and even change its sign. Future research to confirm these results is necessary.

  17. Application of a coupled aerosol formation: Radiative transfer model to climatic studies of aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Toon, O. B.; Pollack, J. B.

    1979-01-01

    A sophisticated one dimensional physical-chemical model of the formation and evolution of stratospheric aerosols was used to predict the size and number concentration of the stratospheric aerosols as functions of time and altitude following: a large volcanic eruption; increased addition of carbonyl sulfide (OCS) or sulfur dioxide (SO2) to the troposphere; increased supersonic aircraft (SST) flights in the stratosphere; and, large numbers of space shuttle (SS) flights through the stratosphere. A radiative-convective one dimensional climate sensitivity study, using the results of the aerosol formation model, was performed to assess the ground level climatic significance of these perturbations to the stratospheric aerosol layer. Volcanic eruptions and large OCS or SO2 increases could cause significant climatic changes. Currently projected SS launches and moderate fleets of SST's are unlikely to upset the stratospheric aerosol layer enough to significantly impact climate.

  18. Aerosol Absorption by Black Carbon and Dust: Implications of Climate Change and Air Quality in Asia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chin, Mian

    2010-01-01

    Atmospheric aerosol distributions from 2000 to 2007 are simulated with the global model GOCART to attribute light absorption by aerosol to its composition and sources. We show the seasonal and interannual variations of absorbing aerosols in the atmosphere over Asia, mainly black carbon and dust. and their linkage to the changes of anthropogenic and dust emissions in the region. We compare our results with observations from satellite and ground-based networks, and estimate the importance of black carbon and dust on regional climate forcing and air quality.

  19. Evaluation of aerosol indirect radiative forcing in MIRAGE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghan, Steven; Easter, Richard; Hudson, James; BréOn, Francois-Marie

    2001-03-01

    We evaluate aerosol indirect radiative forcing simulated by the Model for Integrated Research on Atmospheric Global Exchange (MIRAGE). Although explicit measurements of aerosol indirect radiative forcing do not exist, measurements of many of the links between aerosols and indirect radiative forcing are available and can be used for evaluation. These links include the cloud condensation nuclei concentration, the ratio of droplet number to aerosol number, the droplet number concentration, the column droplet number, the column cloud water, the droplet effective radius, the cloud optical depth, the correlation between cloud albedo and droplet effective radius, and the cloud radiative forcing. The CCN concentration simulated by MIRAGE agrees with measurements for supersaturations larger than 0.1% but not for smaller supersaturations. Simulated droplet number concentrations are too low in most but not all locations with available measurements, even when normalized by aerosol number. MIRAGE correctly simulates the higher droplet numbers and smaller droplet sizes over continents and in the Northern Hemisphere. Biases in column cloud water, cloud optical depth, and shortwave cloud radiative forcing are evident in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and in the subtropical oceans. MIRAGE correctly simulates a negative correlation between cloud albedo and droplet size over remote oceans for cloud optical depths greater than 15 and a positive correlation for cloud optical depths less than 15 but fails to simulate a negative correlation over land.

  20. Evaluation of Aerosol Indirect Radiative Forcing in MIRAGE

    SciTech Connect

    Ghan, Steven J.; Easter, Richard C.; Hudson, J D.; Breon, Francois

    2001-04-01

    We evaluate aerosol indirect radiative forcing simulated by the Model for Integrated Research on Atmospheric Global Exchanges (MIRAGE). Although explicit measurements of aerosol indirect radiative forcing do not exist, measurements of many of the links between aerosols and indirect radiative forcing are available and can be used for evaluation. These links include the cloud condensation nuclei concentration, the ratio of droplet number to aerosol number, the droplet number concentration, the column droplet number, the column cloud water, the droplet effective radius, the cloud optical depth, the correlation between cloud albedo and droplet effective radius, and the cloud radiative forcing. The CCN concentration simulated by MIRAGE agrees with measurements for supersaturations larger than 0.1%, but not for smaller supersaturations. Simulated droplet number concentrations are too low in most, but not all, locations with available measurements, even when normalized by aerosol number. MIRA GE correctly simulates the higher droplet numbers and smaller droplet sizes over continents and in the Northern Hemisphere. Biases in column cloud water, cloud optical depth, and shortwave cloud radiative forcing are evident in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and in the subtropical oceans. MIRAGE correctly simulates a negative correlation between cloud albedo and droplet size over remote oceans for cloud optical depths greater than 15 and a positive correlation for cloud optical depths less than 15, but fails to simulate a negative correlation over land.

  1. Evaluation of Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing in MIRAGE

    SciTech Connect

    Ghan, Steven J.; Laulainen, Nels S.; Easter, Richard C.; Wagener, Richard; Nemesure, Seth; Chapman, Elaine G.; Zhang, Yang; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2001-04-01

    A variety of measurements have been used to evaluate the treatment of aerosol radiative properties and radiative impacts of aerosols simulated by the Model for Integrated Research on Atmospheric Global Exchanges (MIRAGE). The treatment of water uptake in MIRAGE agrees with laboratory measurements for the aerosol components that have been measured. The simulated frequency of relative humidity near 100% is about twice that of European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts analyzed relative humidity. When the analyzed relative humidity is used to calculate aerosol water uptake in MIRAGE, the simulated aerosol optical depth agrees with most surface measurements after cloudy conditions are filtered out and differences between model and station elevations are accounted for. Simulated optical depths are low over sites in Brazil during the biomass burning season and over sites in central Canada during the wildfire season, which can be attributed to limitations in the organic and black car bon emissions data used by MIRAGE. The simulated aerosol optical depths are mostly within a factor of two of satellite estimates, but MIRAGE simulates excessively high aerosol optical depths off the east coast of the US and China, and too little dust off the coast of West Africa and in the Arabian Sea. The simulated distribution of single-scatter albedo is consistent with the available in situ surface measurements. The simulated sensitivity of radiative forcing to aerosol optical depth is consistent with estimates from measurements where available. The simulated spatial distribution of aerosol radiance is broadly consistent with estimates from satellite measurements, but with the same errors as the aerosol optical depth. The simulated direct forcing is within the uncertainty of estimates from measurements in the North Atlantic.

  2. Impacts of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions on Climate Change in East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shim, S.; Jung, Y.; Baek, H.; Cho, C.

    2013-12-01

    Climate impact by anthropogenic drivers gives high concerns in climate change simulation. IPCC AR4 emphasized the role of aerosol on climate besides the GHGs due to its negative significant radiative forcing. We find that climate feedback of anthropogenic aerosols over East Asia through direct and indirect (aerosol-cloud interaction) radiative process using HadGEM2-AO developed by the UK Met office. Due to the industrial revolution and population growth, total anthropogenic aerosol emissions have grown dramatically over East Asia; sulfate aerosol is the dominant component accounting for about 50% of total aerosol optical depth at 550nm (Figure 1). An increased amount of aerosols might increase the CCN number concentration and lead to more, but smaller, cloud droplets for fixed liquid water content. This increases the albedo of the cloud, resulting in enhance reflection and a cooling effect. And smaller drops require longer growth times to reach size at which they easily fall as precipitation. This effect called the cloud lifetime effect may enhance the cloud cover (Figure 2), with a persistent positive correlation between cloud cover and aerosol optical depth. Particularly, aerosols have an influence on the amount of cloud cover (SC, ST, and NS) through the interaction with precipitation efficiency of low level clouds. As a result of perturbations of East Asia aerosols from preindustrial to present day, a net radiative flux at the top of atmosphere is estimated to be -4 W/m2, with a regional mean surface cooling of 1.2 K. More detailed analysis will be shown at the conference. Fig. 1. (a) Total AOD distributions (b) Changes in decadal mean AOD over East Asia. Fig 2. Cloud cover distributions classified by ISCCP cloud types.

  3. Evaluation of aerosol direct radiative forcing in MIRAGE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghan, Steven; Laulainen, Nels; Easter, Richard; Wagener, Richard; Nemesure, Seth; Chapman, Elaine; Zhang, Yang; Leung, Ruby

    2001-03-01

    A variety of measurements have been used to evaluate the treatment of aerosol radiative properties and radiative impacts of aerosols simulated by the Model for Integrated Research on Atmospheric Global Exchange (MIRAGE). The treatment of water uptake in MIRAGE agrees with laboratory measurements, and the growth of aerosol extinction with relative humidity in MIRAGE simulations agrees with field measurements. The simulated frequency of relative humidity near 100% is about twice that of analyzed relative humidity. When the analyzed relative humidity is used to calculate aerosol water uptake in MIRAGE, the simulated aerosol optical depth agrees with most surface measurements after cloudy conditions are filtered out and differences between model and station elevations are accounted for, but simulated optical depths are too low over Brazil and central Canada. Simulated optical depths are mostly within a factor of 2 of satellite estimates, but are too high off the east coasts of the United States and China and too low off the coast of West Africa and in the Arabian Sea. The simulated single-scatter albedo is consistent with surface measurements. MIRAGE correctly simulates a larger Ångström exponent near regions with emissions of submicron particles and aerosol precursor gases, and a smaller exponent near regions with emissions of coarse particles. The simulated sensitivity of radiative forcing to aerosol optical depth is consistent with estimates from measurements. The simulated direct forcing is within the uncertainty of estimates from measurements in the North Atlantic.

  4. Complex Coupling of Air Quality and Climate-Relevant Aerosols in a Chemistry-Aerosol Microphysics Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoshioka, M.; Carslaw, K. S.; Reddington, C.; Mann, G.

    2013-12-01

    Controlling emissions of aerosols and their precursors to improve air quality will impact the climate through direct and indirect radiative forcing. We have investigated the impacts of changes in a range of aerosol and gas-phase emission fluxes and changes in temperature on air quality and climate change metrics using a global aerosol microphysics and chemistry model, GLOMAP. We investigate how the responses of PM2.5 and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are coupled, and how attempts to improve air quality could have inadvertent effects on CCN, clouds and climate. The parameter perturbations considered are a 5°C increase in global temperature, increased or decreased precursor emissions of anthropogenic SO2, NH3, and NOx, and biogenic monoterpenes, and increased or decreased primary emissions of organic and black carbon aerosols from wildfire, fossil fuel, and biofuel. To quantify the interactions, we define a new sensitivity metric in terms of the response of CCN divided by the response of PM in different regions. .Our results show that the coupled chemistry and aerosol processes cause complex responses that will make any co-benefit policy decision problematic. In particular, we show that reducing SO2 emissions effectively reduces surface-level PM2.5 over continental regions in summer when background PM2.5 is high, with a relatively small reduction in marine CCN (and hence indirect radiative cooling over ocean), which is beneficial for near-term climate. Reducing NOx emissions does not improve summertime air quality very effectively but leads to a relatively high reduction of marine CCN. Reducing NH3 emissions has moderate effects on both PM2.5 and CCN. These three species are strongly coupled chemically and microphysically and the effects of changing emissions of one species on mass and size distributions of aerosols are very complex and spatially and temporally variable. For example, reducing SO2 emissions leads to reductions in sulphate and ammonium mass

  5. CLouds, and Aerosols Radiative Impacts and Forcing: Year 2016 (CLARIFY-2016)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haywood, J. M.; Bellouin, N.; Carslaw, K. S.; Coe, H.; Field, P.; Highwood, E. J.; Redemann, J.; Stier, P.; Wood, R.; Zuidema, P.

    2013-12-01

    Strongly absorbing biomass burning aerosols (BBAs) exist above highly reflectant stratocumulus clouds in the SE Atlantic with implications on the direct (e.g. Haywood et al., 2003), semi-direct (e.g. Johnson et al., 2006), and indirect effect of aerosols, implications on the remote sensing of cloud optical properties, development of clouds and feedback processes. Here, we present an analysis of modelled estimates of the direct effect using twelve models from the AEROCOM project (Myhre et al., 2013) to show that estimates of the direct effect in SE Atlantic range from strongly negative to strongly positive. Furthermore, we evaluate the performance of the HadGEM2 model and show it cannot replicate the extreme values of positive forcing inferred from high spectral resolution satellite retrievals. By examining patterns of deposition, we infer that the indirect effect from biomass burning aerosols is very limited in the model, but without detailed measurements we are unsure of the validity of this inference. We conclude that the SE Atlantic is therefore of key importance in determining the radiative forcing of biomass burning aerosols and provides a very stringent test for global climate models as they need to accurately represent the geographic distribution of the aerosol optical depth, the wavelength dependent aerosol single scattering albedo, the vertical profile of the aerosol, the geographic distribution of the cloud, the cloud fraction, the cloud liquid water content, the cloud droplet effective radii, and the vertical profile of the cloud. These results are used as scientific rationale to justify a new measurement campaign: CLouds and Aerosol Radiative Impacts and Forcing: Year-2016 (CLARIFY-2016). Haywood, J.M., Osborne, S.R. Francis, P.N., Keil, A., Formenti, P., Andreae, M.O., and Kaye, P.H., The mean physical and optical properties of regional haze dominated by biomass burning aerosol measured from the C-130 aircraft during SAFARI 2000, J. Geophys. Res., 108

  6. Sensitivity of Remote Aerosol Distributions to Representation of Cloud-Aerosol Interactions in a Global Climate Model

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Hailong; Easter, Richard C.; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Minghuai; Liu, Xiaohong; Ghan, Steven J.; Qian, Yun; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Ma, Po-Lun; Vinoj, V.

    2013-06-05

    Many global aerosol and climate models, including the widely used Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), have large biases in predicting aerosols in remote regions such as upper troposphere and high latitudes. In this study, we conduct CAM5 sensitivity simulations to understand the role of key processes associated with aerosol transformation and wet removal affecting the vertical and horizontal long-range transport of aerosols to the remote regions. Improvements are made to processes that are currently not well represented in CAM5, which are guided by surface and aircraft measurements together with results from a multi-scale aerosol-climate model (PNNL-MMF) that explicitly represents convection and aerosol-cloud interactions at cloud-resolving scales. We pay particular attention to black carbon (BC) due to its importance in the Earth system and the availability of measurements. We introduce into CAM5 a new unified scheme for convective transport and aerosol wet removal with explicit aerosol activation above convective cloud base. This new implementation reduces the excessive BC aloft to better simulate observed BC profiles that show decreasing mixing ratios in the mid- to upper-troposphere. After implementing this new unified convective scheme, we examine wet removal of submicron aerosols that occurs primarily through cloud processes. The wet removal depends strongly on the sub-grid scale liquid cloud fraction and the rate of conversion of liquid water to precipitation. These processes lead to very strong wet removal of BC and other aerosols over mid- to high latitudes during winter months. With our improvements, the Arctic BC burden has a10-fold (5-fold) increase in the winter (summer) months, resulting in a much better simulation of the BC seasonal cycle as well. Arctic sulphate and other aerosol species also increase but to a lesser extent. An explicit treatment of BC aging with slower aging assumptions produces an additional 30-fold (5-fold) increase in

  7. Dust Aerosol Impact on North Africa Climate: A GCM Investigation of Aerosol-Cloud-Radiation Interactions Using A-Train Satellite Data

    SciTech Connect

    Gu, Y.; Liou, K. N.; Jiang, Jonathan; Su, Hui; Liu, Xiaohong

    2012-02-15

    The climatic effects of dust aerosols in North Africa have been investigated using the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) developed at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). The model includes an efficient and physically based radiation parameterization scheme developed specifically for application to clouds and aerosols. Parameterization of the effective ice particle size in association with the aerosol indirect effect based on cloud and aerosol data retrieved from A-Train satellite observations have been employed in the climate model simulations. Offline simulations reveal that the direct solar, IR, and net forcings by dust aerosols generally increase with increasing aerosol optical depth (AOD). When the dust semi-direct effect is included with the presence of ice clouds, positive IR radiative forcing is enhanced, since ice clouds trap substantial IR radiation, while the positive solar forcing with dust aerosols alone has been changed to negative values due to the strong reflection of solar radiation by clouds, indicating that cloud forcing could exceed aerosol forcing. With the aerosol indirect effect, the net cloud forcing is generally reduced for ice water path (IWP) larger than 20 g m-2. The magnitude of the reduction increases with IWP. AGCM simulations show that the reduced ice crystal mean effective size due to the aerosol first indirect effect result in less OLR and net solar flux at the top of the atmosphere over the cloudy area of the North Africa region because ice clouds with smaller size trap more IR radiation and reflect more solar radiation. The precipitation in the same area, however, increases due to the aerosol indirect effect on ice clouds, corresponding to the enhanced convection as indicated by reduced OLR. The increased precipitation seems to be associated with enhanced ice water contents in this region. The 200 mb radiative heating rate shows more cooling with the aerosol indirect effect since greater cooling is

  8. Aerosol-Water Cycle Interaction: A New Challenge in Monsoon Climate Research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2006-01-01

    Long recognized as a major environmental hazard, aerosol is now known to have strong impacts on both regional and global climate. It has been estimated that aerosol may reduce by up to 10% of the seasonal mean solar radiation reaching the earth surface, producing a global cooling effect that opposes global warming (Climate Change 2001). This means that the potential perils that humans have committed to global warming may be far greater than what we can detect at the present. As a key component of the Earth climate system, the water cycle is profoundly affected by the presence of aerosols in the atmosphere. Through the so-called direct effect , aerosol scatters and/or absorbs solar radiation, thus cooling the earth surface and changing the horizontal and vertical radiational heating contrast in the atmosphere. The heating contrast drives anomalous atmospheric circulation, resulting in changes in convection, clouds, and rainfall. Another way aerosol can affect the water cycle is through the so-called indirect effects, whereby aerosol increases the number of cloud condensation nuclei, prolongs life time of clouds, and inhibits the growth of cloud drops to raindrops. This leads to more clouds, and increased reflection of solar radiation, and further cooling at the earth surface. In monsoon regions, the response of the water cycle to aerosol forcing is especially complex, not only because of presence of diverse mix of aerosol species with vastly different radiative properties, but also because the monsoon is strongly influenced by ocean and land surface processes, land use, land change, as well as regional and global greenhouse warming effects. Thus, sorting out the impacts of aerosol forcing, and interaction with the monsoon water cycle is a very challenging problem. In this talk, I will offer some insights into how aerosols may impact the Asian monsoon based on preliminary results from satellite observations and climate model experiments. Specifically, I will discuss

  9. Aerosol-Water Cycle Interaction: A New Challenge in Monsoon Climate Research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2006-01-01

    Long recognized as a major environmental hazard, aerosol is now known to have strong impacts on both regional and global climate. It has been estimated that aerosol may reduce by up to 10% of the seasonal mean solar radiation reaching the earth surface, producing a global cooling effect that opposes global warming (Climate Change 2001). This means that the potential perils that humans have committed to global warming may be far greater than what we can detect at the present. As a key component of the Earth climate system, the water cycle is profoundly affected by the presence of aerosols in the atmosphere. Through the so-called "direct effect", aerosol scatters and/or absorbs solar radiation, thus cooling the earth surface and changing the horizontal and vertical radiational heating contrast in the atmosphere. The heating contrast drives anomalous atmospheric circulation, resulting in changes in convection, clouds, and rainfall. Another way aerosol can affect the water cycle is through the so-called "indirect effects", whereby aerosol increases the number of cloud condensation nuclei, prolongs life time of clouds, and inhibits the growth of cloud drops to raindrops. This leads to more clouds, and increased reflection of solar radiation, and further cooling at the earth surface. In monsoon regions, the response of the water cycle to aerosol forcing is especially complex, not only because of presence of diverse mix of aerosol species with vastly different radiative properties, but also because the monsoon is strongly influenced by ocean and land surface processes, land use, land change, as well as regional and global greenhouse warming effects. Thus, sorting out the impacts of aerosol forcing, and interaction with the monsoon water cycle is a very challenging problem. In this talk, I will offer some insights into how aerosols may impact the Asian monsoon based on preliminary results from satellite observations and climate model experiments. Specifically, I will

  10. Improving our fundamental understanding of the role of aerosol-cloud interactions in the climate system.

    PubMed

    Seinfeld, John H; Bretherton, Christopher; Carslaw, Kenneth S; Coe, Hugh; DeMott, Paul J; Dunlea, Edward J; Feingold, Graham; Ghan, Steven; Guenther, Alex B; Kahn, Ralph; Kraucunas, Ian; Kreidenweis, Sonia M; Molina, Mario J; Nenes, Athanasios; Penner, Joyce E; Prather, Kimberly A; Ramanathan, V; Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam; Rasch, Philip J; Ravishankara, A R; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Stephens, Graeme; Wood, Robert

    2016-05-24

    The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth's clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol-cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol-cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty. PMID:27222566

  11. New Satellite Measurements of Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing from MODIS, MISR, and POLDER

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kaufman, Y.

    2000-01-01

    New set of satellites, MODIS and MISR launched on EOS-Terra and POLDER launched on ADEOS-1, and scheduled for ADEOS-II and PARASOL in orbit with EOS-AQUA, open exciting opportunities to measure aerosol and their radiative forcing of climate. Each of these instruments has a different approach to invert remote sensing data to derive the aerosol properties. MODIS is using wide spectral range 0.47-2.1 micron. MISR is using narrower spectral range (0.44 to 0.87 micron) but observing the same spot from 9 different angles along the satellite track. POLDER using similar wavelengths, uses two dimensional view with a wide angle optics and adds polarization to the inversion process. Among these instruments, we expect to measure the global distribution of aerosol, to distinguish small pollution particles from large particles from deserts and ocean spray. We shall try to measure the aerosol absorption of solar radiation, and their refractive index that indicates the effect of liquid water on the aerosol size and interaction with sunlight. The radiation field measured by these instruments in variety of wavelengths and angles, is also used to derive the effect of the aerosol on reflection of sunlight spectral fluxes to space. When combined with flux measurements at the ground, it gives a complete characterization of the effect of aerosol on solar illumination, heating in the atmosphere and reflection to space.

  12. A new method for evaluating the impact of vertical distribution on aerosol radiative forcing in general circulation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vuolo, M. R.; Schulz, M.; Balkanski, Y.; Takemura, T.

    2013-07-01

    The quantification and understanding of direct aerosol forcing is essential in the study of climate. One of the main issues that makes its quantification difficult is the lack of a complete comprehension of the role of the aerosol and clouds vertical distribution. This work aims at reducing the incertitude of aerosol forcing due to the vertical superposition of several short-lived atmospheric components, in particular different aerosols species and clouds. We propose a method to quantify the contribution of different parts of the atmospheric column to the forcing, and to evaluate model differences by isolating the effect of radiative interactions only. Any microphysical or thermo-dynamical interactions between aerosols and clouds are deactivated in the model, to isolate the effects of radiative flux coupling. We investigate the contribution of aerosol above, below and in clouds, by using added diagnostics in the aerosol-climate model LMDz. We also compute the difference between the forcing of the ensemble of the aerosols and the sum of the forcings from individual species, in clear-sky. This difference is found to be moderate on global average (14%) but can reach high values regionally (up to 100%). The non-additivity of forcing already for clear-sky conditions shows, that in addition to represent well the amount of individual aerosol species, it is critical to capture the vertical distribution of all aerosols. Nonlinear effects are even more important when superposing aerosols and clouds. Four forcing computations are performed, one where the full aerosol 3-D distribution is used, and then three where aerosols are confined to regions above, inside and below clouds respectively. We find that the forcing of aerosols depends crucially on the presence of clouds and on their position relative to that of the aerosol, in particular for black carbon (BC). We observe a strong enhancement of the forcing of BC above clouds, attenuation for BC below clouds, and a moderate

  13. The Astronomical Forcing of Climate Change: Forcings and Feedbacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erb, M. P.; Broccoli, A. J.; Clement, A. C.

    2010-12-01

    Understanding the role that orbital forcing played in driving climate change over the Pleistocene has been a matter of ongoing research. While it is undeniable that variations in Earth’s orbit result in changes in the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of insolation, the specifics of how this forcing leads to the climate changes seen in the paleo record are not fully understood. To research this further, climate simulations have been conducted with the GFDL CM2.1, a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM. Two simulations represent the extremes of obliquity during the past 600 kyr and four others show key times in the precessional cycle. All non-orbital variables are set to preindustrial levels to isolate the effects of astronomical forcing alone. It is expected that feedbacks should play a large role in dictating climate change, so to investigate this, the so-called “kernel method” is used to calculate the lapse rate, water vapor, albedo, and cloud feedbacks. Preliminary results of these experiments confirm that feedbacks are important in explaining the nature and, in places, even the sign of climate response to orbital forcing. In the case of low obliquity, for instance, a combination of climate feedbacks lead to global cooling in spite of zero global-average top of atmosphere insolation change. Feedbacks will be analyzed in the obliquity and precession experiments so that the role of feedbacks in contributing to climate change may be better understood.

  14. Closing the Confidence Gap in Aerosol Contributions to Direct Radiative Forcing Using Space-based and Suborbital Resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kahn, R. A.

    2009-12-01

    As expected, the aerosol data products from the NASA Earth Observing System’s MISR and MODIS instruments provide significant advances in regional and global aerosol optical depth (AOD) mapping, aerosol type measurement, and source plume characterization from space. Although these products have been and are being used for many applications, ranging from regional air quality assessment, to aerosol air mass type evolution, to aerosol injection height and aerosol transport model validation, uncertainties still limit the quantitative constraints these satellite data place on global-scale direct aerosol radiative forcing. Some further refinement of the current aerosol products is possible, but a major advance in this area seems to require a different paradigm, involving the integration of satellite and suborbital data with models. This presentation will briefly summarize where we stand, and what incremental advances we can expect, with the current aerosol products, and will then elaborate on some initial steps aimed at the necessary integration. Many other AGU presentations, covering parts of the community’s emerging efforts in this direction, will be referenced, and key points from the recently released CCSP-SAP (US Climate Change Program - Synthesis and Assessment Product) 2.3 - Atmospheric aerosols: Properties and Climate Impacts, will be included in the discussion.

  15. Evaluation of Present-day Aerosols over China Simulated from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, H.; Chang, W.

    2014-12-01

    High concentrations of aerosols over China lead to strong radiative forcing that is important for both regional and global climate. To understand the representation of aerosols in China in current global climate models, we evaluate extensively the simulated present-day aerosol concentrations and aerosol optical depth (AOD) over China from the 12 models that participated in Atmospheric Chemistry & Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), by using ground-based measurements and satellite remote sensing. Ground-based measurements of aerosol concentrations used in this work include those from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Atmosphere Watch Network (CAWNET) and the observed fine-mode aerosol concentrations collected from the literature. The ground-based measurements of AOD in China are taken from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET), the sites with CIMEL sun photometer operated by Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and from Chinese Sun Hazemeter Network (CSHNET). We find that the ACCMIP models generally underestimate concentrations of all major aerosol species in China. On an annual mean basis, the multi-model mean concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, and organic carbon are underestimated by 63%, 73%, 54%, 53%, and 59%, respectively. The multi-model mean AOD values show low biases of 20-40% at studied sites in China. The ACCMIP models can reproduce seasonal variation of nitrate but cannot capture well the seasonal variations of other aerosol species. Our analyses indicate that current global models generally underestimate the role of aerosols in China in climate simulations.

  16. The sensitivity of global climate to the episodicity of fire aerosol emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, Spencer K.; Ward, Daniel S.; Mahowald, Natalie M.

    2015-11-01

    Here we explore the sensitivity of the global radiative forcing and climate response to the episodicity of fire emissions. We compare the standard approach used in present day and future climate modeling studies, in which emissions are not episodic but smoothly interpolated between monthly mean values and that contrast to the response when fires are represented using a range of approximations of episodicity. The range includes cases with episodicity levels matching observed fire day and fire event counts, as well as cases with extreme episodicity. We compare the different emissions schemes in a set of Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) simulations forced with reanalysis meteorology and a set of simulations with online dynamics designed to calculate aerosol indirect effect radiative forcings. We find that using climatologically observed fire frequency improves model estimates of cloud properties over the standard scheme, particularly in boreal regions, when both are compared to a simulation with meteorologically synchronized emissions. Using these emissions schemes leads to a range in global indirect effect radiative forcing of fire aerosols between -1.1 and -1.3 W m-2. In cases with extreme episodicity, we see increased transport of aerosols vertically, leading to longer lifetimes and less negative indirect effect radiative forcings. In general, the range in climate impacts that results from the different realistic fire emissions schemes is smaller than the uncertainty in climate impacts due to other aspects of modeling fire emissions.

  17. Evaluation of a size-resolved aerosol model based on satellite and ground observations and its implication on aerosol forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Xiaoyan; Yu, Fangqun

    2016-04-01

    The latest AeroCom phase II experiments have showed a large diversity in the simulations of aerosol concentrations, size distribution, vertical profile, and optical properties among 16 detailed global aerosol microphysics models, which contribute to the large uncertainty in the predicted aerosol radiative forcing and possibly induce the distinct climate change in the future. In the last few years, we have developed and improved a global size-resolved aerosol model (Yu and Luo, 2009; Ma et al., 2012; Yu et al., 2012), GEOS-Chem-APM, which is a prognostic multi-type, multi-component, size-resolved aerosol microphysics model, including state-of-the-art nucleation schemes and condensation of low volatile secondary organic compounds from successive oxidation aging. The model is one of 16 global models for AeroCom phase II and participated in a couple of model inter-comparison experiments. In this study, we employed multi-year aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from 2004 to 2012 taken from ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) measurements and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) satellite retrievals to evaluate the performance of the GEOS-Chem-APM in predicting aerosol optical depth, including spatial distribution, reginal variation and seasonal variabilities. Compared to the observations, the modelled AOD is overall good over land, but quite low over ocean possibly due to low sea salt emission in the model and/or higher AOD in satellite retrievals, specifically MODIS and MISR. We chose 72 AERONET sites having at least 36 months data available and representative of high spatial domain to compare with the model and satellite data. Comparisons in various representative regions show that the model overall agrees well in the major anthropogenic emission regions, such as Europe, East Asia and North America. Relative to the observations, the modelled AOD is

  18. Non-Kyoto Radiative Forcing in Long-Run Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Rose, Steven K.; Richels, Richard G.; Smith, Steven J.; Riahi, Keywan; Stefler, Jessica; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2014-04-27

    Climate policies designed to achieve climate change objectives must consider radiative forcing from the Kyoto greenhouse gas, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone. Net positive forcing leads to global average temperature increases. Modeling of non-Kyoto forcing is a relatively new component of climate management scenarios. Five of the nineteen models in the EMF-27 Study model both Kyoto and non-Kyoto forcing. This paper describes and assesses current non-Kyoto radiative forcing modeling within these integrated assessment models. The study finds negative forcing from aerosols masking significant positive forcing in reference non-climate policy projections. There are however large differences across models in projected non-Kyoto emissions and forcing, with differences stemming from differences in relationships between Kyoto and non-Kyoto emissions and fundamental differences in modeling structure and assumptions. Air pollution and non-Kyoto forcing decline in the climate policy scenarios. However, non-Kyoto forcing appears to be influencing mitigation results, including allowable carbon dioxide emissions, and further evaluation is merited. Overall, there is substantial uncertainty related to non-Kyoto forcing that must be considered.

  19. Seasonal variation of atmospheric aerosols and its impact on aerosol radiation forcing over Delhi

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, S.; Srivastava, M. K.; Bano, T.; Nath, S.; Tanwar, R. S.; Singh, R.

    Seasonal variability in suspended particulate matter concentration optical properties of aerosol and radiation flux have been studied for Delhi station India using long-term data that comprised of ground based and satellite-borne observations Ground based measurements were taken by a hand-held portable spectrometer MICROTOPS II Solar Light Co Inc USA operating at central wavelengths 340 500 675 870 and 1020 nms FWHM pm 2-10 nm The global radiation flux was measured using the CM-21 pyranometer Kipp and Zonen Germany for wavelength range 305-2800 nm The flux for 290-320 nm wavelength range was measured using UV-Biometer Solar Light Co Inc USA The seasonal change in radiative forcing due to seasonal variability in number density and character of the aerosols is done using Santa Barbara Discrete Ordinate Radiation Transfer model SBDART Since the chemical character of the dominating aerosols for different season was not readily available an estimation of the aerosol composition was done using Optical Properties of Aerosols and Cloud OPAC model The output of the OPAC model gives the required parameters for the estimation of radiation forcing by SBDART These include single scattering albedo and asymmetry parameter Initial results reveal three specific seasonal characteristics of aerosols pre-monsoon post monsoon and the winter excluding monsoon period when data is highly irregular due to predominantly cloudy conditions and heavy downpour During pre-monsoon high aerosol optical depth AOD and near zero often

  20. On the characteristics of aerosol indirect effect based on dynamic regimes in global climate models

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Zhang, Shipeng; Wang, Minghuai; Ghan, Steven J.; Ding, Aijun; Wang, Hailong; Zhang, Kai; Neubauer, David; Lohmann, Ulrike; Ferrachat, Sylvaine; Takeamura, Toshihiko; et al

    2016-03-04

    Aerosol–cloud interactions continue to constitute a major source of uncertainty for the estimate of climate radiative forcing. The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes, determined by monthly mean 500 hPa vertical pressure velocity (ω500), lower-tropospheric stability (LTS) and large-scale surface precipitation rate derived from several global climate models (GCMs), with a focus on liquid water path (LWP) response to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The LWP sensitivity to aerosol perturbation within dynamic regimes is found to exhibit a large spread among these GCMs. It is in regimes of strong large-scale ascentmore » (ω500  <  −25 hPa day−1) and low clouds (stratocumulus and trade wind cumulus) where the models differ most. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing is also found to differ significantly among different regimes. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing in ascending regimes is close to that in subsidence regimes, which indicates that regimes with strong large-scale ascent are as important as stratocumulus regimes in studying AIE. It is further shown that shortwave aerosol indirect forcing over regions with high monthly large-scale surface precipitation rate (> 0.1 mm day−1) contributes the most to the total aerosol indirect forcing (from 64 to nearly 100 %). Results show that the uncertainty in AIE is even larger within specific dynamical regimes compared to the uncertainty in its global mean values, pointing to the need to reduce the uncertainty in AIE in different dynamical regimes.« less

  1. A review of measurement-based assessments of the aerosol direct radiative effect and forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, H.; Kaufman, Y. J.; Chin, M.; Feingold, G.; Remer, L. A.; Anderson, T. L.; Balkanski, Y.; Bellouin, N.; Boucher, O.; Christopher, S.; Decola, P.; Kahn, R.; Koch, D.; Loeb, N.; Reddy, M. S.; Schulz, M.; Takemura, T.; Zhou, M.

    2006-02-01

    Aerosols affect the Earth's energy budget directly by scattering and absorbing radiation and indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and, thereby, affecting cloud properties. However, large uncertainties exist in current estimates of aerosol forcing because of incomplete knowledge concerning the distribution and the physical and chemical properties of aerosols as well as aerosol-cloud interactions. In recent years, a great deal of effort has gone into improving measurements and datasets. It is thus feasible to shift the estimates of aerosol forcing from largely model-based to increasingly measurement-based. Our goal is to assess current observational capabilities and identify uncertainties in the aerosol direct forcing through comparisons of different methods with independent sources of uncertainties. Here we assess the aerosol optical depth (τ), direct radiative effect (DRE) by natural and anthropogenic aerosols, and direct climate forcing (DCF) by anthropogenic aerosols, focusing on satellite and ground-based measurements supplemented by global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations. The multi-spectral MODIS measures global distributions of aerosol optical depth (τ) on a daily scale, with a high accuracy of ±0.03±0.05τ over ocean. The annual average τ is about 0.14 over global ocean, of which about 21%±7% is contributed by human activities, as estimated by MODIS fine-mode fraction. The multi-angle MISR derives an annual average AOD of 0.23 over global land with an uncertainty of ~20% or ±0.05. These high-accuracy aerosol products and broadband flux measurements from CERES make it feasible to obtain observational constraints for the aerosol direct effect, especially over global the ocean. A number of measurement-based approaches estimate the clear-sky DRE (on solar radiation) at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) to be about -5.5±0.2 Wm-2 (median ± standard error from various methods) over the global ocean. Accounting for thin cirrus contamination

  2. The Impact of Desert Dust Aerosol Radiative Forcing on Global and West African Precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jordan, A.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Dezfuli, A. K.

    2015-12-01

    Desert dust aerosols exert a radiative forcing on the atmosphere, influencing atmospheric temperature structure and modifying radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and surface. As dust aerosols perturb radiative fluxes, the atmosphere responds by altering both energy and moisture dynamics, with potentially significant impacts on regional and global precipitation. Global Climate Model (GCM) experiments designed to characterize these processes have yielded a wide range of results, owing to both the complex nature of the system and diverse differences across models. Most model results show a general decrease in global precipitation, but regional results vary. Here, we compare simulations from GFDL's CM2Mc GCM with multiple other model experiments from the literature in order to investigate mechanisms of radiative impact and reasons for GCM differences on a global and regional scale. We focus on West Africa, a region of high interannual rainfall variability that is a source of dust and that neighbors major Sahara Desert dust sources. As such, changes in West African climate due to radiative forcing of desert dust aerosol have serious implications for desertification feedbacks. Our CM2Mc results show net cooling of the planet at TOA and surface, net warming of the atmosphere, and significant increases in precipitation over West Africa during the summer rainy season. These results differ from some previous GCM studies, prompting comparative analysis of desert dust parameters across models. This presentation will offer quantitative analysis of differences in dust aerosol parameters, aerosol optical properties, and overall particle burden across GCMs, and will characterize the contribution of model differences to the uncertainty of forcing and climate response affecting West Africa.

  3. WRF-Chem Simulations of Aerosols and Anthropogenic Aerosol Radiative Forcing in East Asia

    SciTech Connect

    Gao, Yi; Zhao, Chun; Liu, Xiaohong; Zhang, Meigen; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2014-08-01

    This study aims to provide a first comprehensive evaluation of WRF-Chem for modeling aerosols and anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing (RF) over East Asia. Several numerical experiments were conducted from November 2007 to December 2008. Comparison between model results and observations shows that the model can generally reproduce the observed spatial distributions of aerosol concentration, aerosol optical depth (AOD) and single scattering albedo (SSA) from measurements at different sites, including the relatively higher aerosol concentration and AOD over East China and the relatively lower AOD over Southeast Asia, Korean, and Japan. The model also depicts the seasonal variation and transport of pollutions over East Asia. Particulate matter of 10 um or less in the aerodynamic diameter (PM10), black carbon (BC), sulfate (SO42-), nitrate (NO3-) and ammonium (NH4+) concentrations are higher in spring than other seasons in Japan due to the pollutant transport from polluted area of East Asia. AOD is high over Southwest and Central China in winter, spring and autumn and over North China in summer while is low over South China in summer due to monsoon precipitation. SSA is lowest in winter and highest in summer. The model also captures the dust events at the Zhangye site in the semi-arid region of China. Anthropogenic aerosol RF is estimated to range from -5 to -20 W m-2 over land and -20 to -40 W m-2 over ocean at the top of atmosphere (TOA), 5 to 30 W m-2 in the atmosphere (ATM) and -15 to -40 W m-2 at the bottom (BOT). The warming effect of anthropogenic aerosol in ATM results from BC aerosol while the negative aerosol RF at TOA is caused by scattering aerosols such as SO4 2-, NO3 - and NH4+. Positive BC RF at TOA compensates 40~50% of the TOA cooling associated with anthropogenic aerosol.

  4. The regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pietikäinen, J.-P.; O'Donnell, D.; Teichmann, C.; Karstens, U.; Pfeifer, S.; Kazil, J.; Podzun, R.; Fiedler, S.; Kokkola, H.; Birmili, W.; O'Dowd, C.; Baltensperger, U.; Weingartner, E.; Gehrig, R.; Spindler, G.; Kulmala, M.; Feichter, J.; Jacob, D.; Laaksonen, A.

    2012-03-01

    REMO-HAM is a new regional aerosol-climate model. It is based on the REMO regional climate model and includes all of the major aerosol processes. The structure for aerosol is similar to the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM, for example the aerosol module HAM-M7 has been coupled with a two-moment stratiform cloud scheme. In this work, we have evaluated the model and compared the results against ECHAM5-HAM and measurements. Four different measurement sites was chosen for the comparison of total number concentrations, size distributions and gas phase sulfur dioxide concentrations: Hyytiälä in Finland, Melpitz in Germany, Mace Head in Ireland and Jungfraujoch in Switzerland. REMO-HAM is run with two different resolutions: 50×50 km2 and 10×10 km2. Based on our simulations, REMO-HAM can represent the measured values reasonably well. The total number concentrations are slightly underestimated, which is probably due to the missing boundary layer nucleation and online secondary organic aerosol model. The differences in the total number concentrations between REMO-HAM and ECHAM5-HAM can be mainly explained by the difference in the nucleation mode. From the meteorological point of view, REMO-HAM represents the precipitation fields and 2 m temperature profile very well compared to measurement. Overall, we have shown that REMO-HAM is a functional aerosol-climate model, which will be used in further studies.

  5. Quantification of regional radiative impacts and climate effects of tropical fire aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tosca, M. G.; Zender, C. S.; Randerson, J. T.

    2011-12-01

    Regionally expansive smoke clouds originating from deforestation fires in Indonesia can modify local precipitation patterns via direct aerosol scattering and absorption of solar radiation (Tosca et al., 2010). Here we quantify the regional climate impacts of fire aerosols for three tropical burning regions that together account for about 70% of global annual fire emissions. We use the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5) coupled to a slab ocean model (SOM) embedded within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In addition to direct aerosol radiative effects, CAM5 also quantifies indirect, semi-direct and cloud microphysical aerosol effects. Climate impacts are determined using regionally adjusted emissions data that produce realistic aerosol optical depths in CAM5. We first analyzed a single 12-year transient simulation (1996-2007) forced with unadjusted emissions estimates from the Global Fire Emissions Database, version 3 (GFEDv3) and compared the resulting aerosol optical depths (AODs) for 4 different burning regions (equatorial Asia, southern Africa, South America and boreal North America) to observed MISR and MODIS AODs for the same period. Based on this analysis we adjusted emissions for each burning region between 150 and 300% and forced a second simulation with the regionally adjusted emissions. Improved AODs from this simulation are compared to AERONET observations available at 15 stations throughout the tropics. We present here two transient simulations--one with the adjusted fire emissions and one without fires--to quantify the cumulative fire aerosol climate impact for three major tropical burning regions (equatorial Asia, southern Africa and South America). Specifically, we quantify smoke effects on radiation, precipitation, and temperature. References Tosca, M.G., J.T. Randerson, C.S. Zender, M.G. Flanner and P.J. Rasch (2010), Do biomass burning aerosols intensify drought in equatorial Asia during El Nino?, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 3515

  6. Saharan Dust Aerosol Radiative Forcing Measured from Space.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, F.; Vogelmann, A. M.; Ramanathan, V.

    2004-07-01

    This study uses data collected from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments to determine Saharan dust broadband shortwave aerosol radiative forcing over the Atlantic Ocean near the African coast (15° 25°N, 45° 15°W). The clear-sky aerosol forcing is derived directly from these data, without requiring detailed information about the aerosol properties that are not routinely observed such as chemical composition, microphysical properties, and their height variations. To determine the diurnally averaged Saharan dust radiative forcing efficiency (i.e., broadband shortwave forcing per unit optical depth at 550 nm, W m-2 τ-1a), two extreme seasons are juxtaposed: the high-dust months [June August (JJA)] and the low-dust months [November January (NDJ)]. It is found that the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) diurnal mean forcing efficiency is -35 ± 3 W m-2 τ-1a for JJA, and -26 ± 3 W m-2 τ-1a for NDJ. These efficiencies can be fit by reducing the spectrally varying aerosol single-scattering albedo such that its value at 550 nm is reduced from 0.95 ± 0.04 for JJA to about 0.86 ± 0.04 for NDJ. The lower value for the low-dust months might be influenced by biomass-burning aerosols that were transported into the study region from equatorial Africa. Although the high-dust season has a greater (absolute value of the) TOA forcing efficiency, the low-dust season may have a greater surface forcing efficiency. Extrapolations based on model calculations suggest the surface forcing efficiencies to be about -65 W m-2 τ-1a for the high-dust season versus -81 W m-2 τ-1a for the low-dust season. These observations indicate that the aerosol character within a region can be readily modified, even immediately adjacent to a powerful source region such as the Sahara. This study provides important observational constraints for models of dust radiative forcing.


  7. Carbonaceous aerosol tracers in ice-cores record multi-decadal climate oscillations

    PubMed Central

    Seki, Osamu; Kawamura, Kimitaka; Bendle, James A. P.; Izawa, Yusuke; Suzuki, Ikuko; Shiraiwa, Takayuki; Fujii, Yoshiyuki

    2015-01-01

    Carbonaceous aerosols influence the climate via direct and indirect effects on radiative balance. However, the factors controlling the emissions, transport and role of carbonaceous aerosols in the climate system are highly uncertain. Here we investigate organic tracers in ice cores from Greenland and Kamchatka and find that, throughout the period covered by the records (1550 to 2000 CE), the concentrations and composition of biomass burning-, soil bacterial- and plant wax- tracers correspond to Arctic and regional temperatures as well as the warm season Arctic Oscillation (AO) over multi-decadal time-scales. Specifically, order of magnitude decreases (increases) in abundances of ice-core organic tracers, likely representing significant decreases (increases) in the atmospheric loading of carbonaceous aerosols, occur during colder (warmer) phases in the high latitudinal Northern Hemisphere. This raises questions about causality and possible carbonaceous aerosol feedback mechanisms. Our work opens new avenues for ice core research. Translating concentrations of organic tracers (μg/kg-ice or TOC) from ice-cores, into estimates of the atmospheric loading of carbonaceous aerosols (μg/m3) combined with new model constraints on the strength and sign of climate forcing by carbonaceous aerosols should be a priority for future research. PMID:26411576

  8. Final Report for LDRD Project ''A New Era of Research in Aerosol/Cloud/Climate Interactions at LLNL''

    SciTech Connect

    Chuang, C; Bergman, D J; Dignon, J E; Connell, P S

    2002-01-31

    of aerosol/cloud interactions on climate forcing [Chuang and Penner, 1995]. Our research has been recognized as one of a few studies attempting to quantify the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on climate in the IPCC Third Assessment Report [IPCC, 2001]. Our previous assessments of aerosol climate effects were based on a general circulation model (NCAR CCM1) fully coupled to a global tropospheric chemistry model (GRANTOUR). Both models, however, were developed more than a decade ago. The lack of advanced physics representation and techniques in our current models limits us from further exploring the interrelationship between aerosol, cloud, and climate variation. Our objective is to move to a new era of aerosol/cloud/climate modeling at LLNL by coupling the most advanced chemistry and climate models and by incorporating an aerosol microphysics module. This modeling capability will enable us to identify and analyze the responsible processes in aerosol/cloud/climate interactions and therefore, to improve the level of scientific understanding for aerosol climate effects. This state-of-the-art coupled models will also be used to address the relative importance of anthropogenic and natural emissions in the spatial pattern of aerosol climate forcing in order to assess the potential of human induced climate change.

  9. Chapter 3: Evaluating the impacts of carbonaceous aerosols on clouds and climate

    SciTech Connect

    Menon, Surabi; Del Genio, Anthony D.

    2007-09-03

    Any attempt to reconcile observed surface temperature changes within the last 150 years to changes simulated by climate models that include various atmospheric forcings is sensitive to the changes attributed to aerosols and aerosol-cloud-climate interactions, which are the main contributors that may well balance the positive forcings associated with greenhouse gases, absorbing aerosols, ozone related changes, etc. These aerosol effects on climate, from various modeling studies discussed in Menon (2004), range from +0.8 to -2.4 W m{sup -2}, with an implied value of -1.0 W m{sup -2} (range from -0.5 to -4.5 W m{sup -2}) for the aerosol indirect effects. Quantifying the contribution of aerosols and aerosol-cloud interactions remain complicated for several reasons some of which are related to aerosol distributions and some to the processes used to represent their effects on clouds. Aerosol effects on low lying marine stratocumulus clouds that cover much of the Earth's surface (about 70%) have been the focus of most of prior aerosol-cloud interaction effect simulations. Since cumulus clouds (shallow and deep convective) are short lived and cover about 15 to 20% of the Earth's surface, they are not usually considered as radiatively important. However, the large amount of latent heat released from convective towers, and corresponding changes in precipitation, especially in biomass regions due to convective heating effects (Graf et al. 2004), suggest that these cloud systems and aerosol effects on them, must be examined more closely. The radiative heating effects for mature deep convective systems can account for 10-30% of maximum latent heating effects and thus cannot be ignored (Jensen and Del Genio 2003). The first study that isolated the sensitivity of cumulus clouds to aerosols was from Nober et al. (2003) who found a reduction in precipitation in biomass burning regions and shifts in circulation patterns. Aerosol effects on convection have been included in other

  10. Effect of spectrally varying albedo of vegetation surfaces on shortwave radiation fluxes and direct aerosol forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, L.; Martins, J. V.; Yu, H.

    2012-06-01

    This study develops an algorithm for the representation of large spectral variations of albedo over vegetation surfaces based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) observations at 7 discrete channels centered at 0.47, 0.55, 0.67, 0.86, 1.24, 1.63, and 2.11 μm. The MODIS 7-channel observations miss several major features of vegetation albedo including the vegetation red edge near 0.7 μm and vegetation absorption features at 1.48 and 1.92 μm. We characterize these features by investigating aerosol forcing in different spectral ranges. We show that the correction at 0.7 μm is the most sensitive and important due to the presence of the red edge and strong solar radiation; the other two corrections are less sensitive due to the weaker solar radiation and strong atmospheric water absorption. Four traditional approaches for estimating the reflectance spectrum and the MODIS enhanced vegetation albedo (MEVA) are tested against various vegetation types: dry grass, green grass, conifer, and deciduous from the John Hopkins University (JHU) spectral library; aspens from the US Geological Survey (USGS) digital spectral library; and Amazon vegetation types. Compared to traditional approaches, MEVA improves the accuracy of the outgoing flux at the top of the atmosphere by over 60 W m-2 and aerosol forcing by over 10 W m-2. Specifically, for Amazon vegetation types, MEVA can improve the accuracy of daily averaged aerosol forcing at equator at equinox by 3.7 W m-2 (about 70% of the aerosol forcing calculated with high spectral resolution surface reflectance). These improvements indicate that MEVA can contribute to vegetation covered regional climate studies, and help to improve understanding of climate processes and climate change.

  11. Impact of springtime biomass-burning aerosols on radiative forcing over northern Thailand during the 7SEAS campaign

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pani, Shantanu Kumar; Wang, Sheng-Hsiang; Lin, Neng-Huei; Lee, Chung-Te; Tsay, Si-Chee; Holben, Brent; Janjai, Serm; Hsiao, Ta-Chih; Chuang, Ming-Tung; Chantara, Somporn

    2016-04-01

    Biomass-burning (BB) aerosols are the significant contributor to the regional/global aerosol loading and radiation budgets. BB aerosols affect the radiation budget of the earth and atmosphere by scattering and absorbing directly the incoming solar and outgoing terrestrial radiation. These aerosols can exert either cooling or warming effect on climate, depending on the balance between scattering and absorption. BB activities in the form of wildland forest fires and agricultural crop burning are very pronounced in the Indochina peninsular regions in Southeast Asia mainly in spring (late February to April) season. The region of interest includes Doi Ang Khang (19.93° N, 99.05° E, 1536 msl) in northern Thailand, as part of the Seven South East Asian Studies (7-SEAS)/BASELInE (Biomass-burning Aerosols & Stratocumulus Environment: Lifecycles & Interactions Experiment) campaign in 2013. In this study, for the first time, the direct aerosol radiative effects of BB aerosols over near-source BB emissions, during the peak loading spring season, in northern Indochina were investigated by using ground-based physical, chemical, and optical properties of aerosols as well as the aerosol optical and radiative transfer models. Information on aerosol parameters in the field campaign was used in the OPAC (Optical Properties of Aerosols and Clouds) model to estimate various optical properties corresponding to aerosol compositions. Clear-sky shortwave direct aerosol radiative effects were further estimated with a raditive transfer model SBDART (Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer). The columnar aerosol optical depth (AOD500) was found to be ranged from 0.26 to 1.13 (with the mean value 0.71 ± 0.24). Fine-mode (fine mode fraction ≈0.98, angstrom exponent ≈1.8) and significantly absorbing aerosols (columnar single-scattering albedo ≈0.89, asymmetry-parameter ≈0.67 at 441 nm wavelength) dominated in this region. Water soluble and black carbon (BC) aerosols mainly

  12. Declining uncertainty in transient climate response as CO2 forcing dominates future climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Myhre, Gunnar; Boucher, Olivier; Bréon, François-Marie; Forster, Piers; Shindell, Drew

    2015-03-01

    Carbon dioxide has exerted the largest portion of radiative forcing and surface temperature change over the industrial era, but other anthropogenic influences have also contributed. However, large uncertainties in total forcing make it difficult to derive climate sensitivity from historical observations. Anthropogenic forcing has increased between the Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC; refs , ), although its relative uncertainty has decreased. Here we show, based on data from the two reports, that this evolution towards lower uncertainty can be expected to continue into the future. Because it is easier to reduce air pollution than carbon dioxide emissions and because of the long lifetime of carbon dioxide, the less uncertain carbon dioxide forcing is expected to become increasingly dominant. Using a statistical model, we estimate that the relative uncertainty in anthropogenic forcing of more than 40% quoted in the latest IPCC report for 2011 will be almost halved by 2030, even without better scientific understanding. Absolute forcing uncertainty will also decline for the first time, provided projected decreases in aerosols occur. Other factors being equal, this stronger constraint on forcing will bring a significant reduction in the uncertainty of observation-based estimates of the transient climate response, with a 50% reduction in its uncertainty range expected by 2030.

  13. Optical Properties and Climate Impacts of Tropospheric Aerosols that Undergo Long-Range Transport to the Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quinn, P.; Bates, T.; Coffman, D.; Schulz, K.; Shank, L.; Jefferson, A.; Ogren, J.; Burkhart, J.; Shaw, G.

    2009-04-01

    Tropospheric aerosol particles undergo long range transport from the mid-latitudes to the Arctic each winter and spring. Once in the Arctic, aerosols may impact regional climate in several ways. Aerosols can affect climate directly by scattering and absorbing incoming solar radiation and indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and altering cloud properties. In addition, absorbing aerosol that is deposited onto ice and snow can lower the surface albedo and enhance the ice-albedo feedback mechanism. Measurements of aerosol properties relevant to climate forcing (chemical composition, light scattering, and light absorption) have been made by NOAA at Barrow, AK for over a decade. Measurements of aerosol chemical composition have been made over the same time period at the three more southern Alaskan sites of Poker Flat, Denali National Park, and Homer. In addition, in March and April of 2008, aerosol measurements were made during a NOAA research cruise (ICEALOT) to the Greenland, Norwegian and Barents Seas. Onboard the ship, measurements were made of aerosol optical and cloud nucleating properties. Results from the long-term measurements and ICEALOT will be presented in order to describe trends and climate-relevant properties of aerosol particles transported to the Arctic.

  14. The Long-Standing Dynamical Impacts of Climate Engineering following the Injection of Stratospheric Sulphate Aerosol

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Osprey, S. M.; Gray, L. J.; Haywood, J.; Jones, A.

    2014-12-01

    Discussions of our response to climate change invariably involve issues of adaptation and mitigation. The former presupposes unavoidable climate consequences and recognises a need to lessen their impact. The latter attempts to lessen the effects of increasing greenhouse gases (GHG) by (1) reducing GHG emission, (2) creating CO2 sinks (e.g. carbon sequestration) or by blocking the effects of solar radiation (solar radiation management - SRM). The SPICE project was set up to investigate the feasibility of implementing a practical method of SRM using the stratospheric injection of aerosols. SPICE remit includes: engineering design for the delivery of stratospheric aerosol, laboratory measurements for characterising the properties of optimal aerosol, and modelling studies looking into the parameterisation and impact of stratospheric aerosols within a state-of-the-art global climate model. The project has also pressed for the need for governance of climate engineering research. We describe idealised experiments investigating the environmental impact following sulphate aerosol injection into the tropical low-mid stratosphere. We compare a geo-engineering scenario (GeoMIP G4), which includes a constant injection rate of SO2 (5Tg/year) beginning at 2020, against a control simulation of increasing greenhouse gas forcing, as outlined by the CMIP5 RCP4.5 scenario. We use the well-documented stratosphere-resolving Hadley Centre model, which has been employed in previous CMIP5 and climate engineering studies. We examine for high-latitude impacts following tropical aerosol injection, and in particular the Holton-Tan effect observed in the wintertime extratropical stratosphere. These dynamical sensitivities provide an important link, bridging tropical stratosphere forcing with the near-surface response often seen at high latitudes.

  15. How weather impacts the forced climate response

    SciTech Connect

    Kirtman, Ben P.; Schneider, Edwin K.; Straus, David M.; Min, Dughong; Burgman, Robert

    2011-05-10

    The new interactive ensemble modeling strategy is used to diagnose how noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics impacts the forced climate response during the twentieth century (i.e., 1870–1999). The interactive ensemble uses multiple realizations of the atmospheric component model coupled to a single realization of the land, ocean and ice component models in order to reduce the noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics in the flux exchange at the interface of the component models. A control ensemble of so-called climate of the twentieth century simulations of the Community Climate Simulation Model version 3 (CCSM3) are compared with a similar simulation with the interactive ensemble version of CCSM3. Despite substantial differences in the overall mean climate, the global mean trends in surface temperature, 500 mb geopotential and precipitation are largely indistinguishable between the control ensemble and the interactive ensemble. Large differences in the forced response; however, are detected particularly in the surface temperature of the North Atlantic. Associated with the forced North Atlantic surface temperature differences are local differences in the forced precipitation and a substantial remote rainfall response in the deep tropical Pacific. We also introduce a simple variance analysis to separately compare the variance due to noise and the forced response. We find that the noise variance is decreased when external forcing is included. Finally, in terms of the forced variance, we find that the interactive ensemble increases this variance relative to the control.

  16. Climatic and ecological impacts of tropospheric sulphate aerosols on the terrestrial carbon cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eliseev, Alexey V.

    2015-04-01

    Tropospheric sulphate aerosols (TSA) may oxidise the photosynthesising tissues if they are taken up by plants. A parametrisation of this impact of tropospheric sulphate aerosols (TSA) on the terrestrial gross primary production is suggested. This parametrisation is implemented into the global Earth system model developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of the Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM). With this coupled model, the simulations are performed which are forced by common anthropogenic and natural climate forcings based on historical reconstructions followed by the RCP 8.5 scenario. The model response to sulphate aerosol loading is subdivided into the climatic (related to the influence of TSA on the radiative transport in the atmosphere) and ecological (related to the toxic influence of sulphate aerosol on terrestrial plants) impacts. We found that the former basically dominates over the latter on the global scale and modifies the responses of the global vegetation and soil carbon stocks to external forcings by 10%. At regional scale, however, ecological impact may be as much important as the climatic one.

  17. Aerosol changes associated with land use change in Asia and their impacts on climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sudo, K.; Takata, K.; Kanzawa, H.; Yasunari, T.

    2009-12-01

    This study assesses the roles of aerosols in the past/present changes in Asian climate and monsoon, isolating impacts of individual aerosol components in the framework of the CCSR/NIES/FRCGC climate model (MIROC). Many recent studies suggest that increases in anthropogenic aerosols such as black carbon and sulfate may play a crucial role in Asian climate change as observed. Our previous studies also demonstrate the significance of aerosol increases (sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols) in the simulated precipitation changes in Asia (e.g., Arai et al., 2009). In this study, we particularly focus on the changes of nitrate and secondary organic aerosols (SOA) which are tightly linked to land use change in regions like Asia, but not treated in our previous aerosol studies. We newly introduced simulation of nitrate aerosol in our climate model. Our simulation shows that there are anomalously high concentrations of nitrate aerosol in South Asia (particularly around India and Bangladesh), coming from abundant ammonium and less sulfate components in this region. In India, free tropospheric mixing ratio and number concentration of nitrate in fine mode are both larger than those of sulfate in winter to early summer. Our study estimates large cooling (1-2 W m-2) in South Asia due to nitrate increase in terms of direct radiative forcing for 1850-2000. This result suggests nitrate aerosol may play an important role in the observed changes in Asian monsoon. In addition, we estimate changes in biogenic VOCs emissions associated with land use change during 1850-2000; biogenic VOCs like terpenes are important precursors of SOA. We estimate significant reduction (50-70%) in terpenes and other VOCs emissions in the central Eurasia, North America, and Asia due to intense cultivation and deforestation in these areas. Responding to the VOCs decreases during 1850-2000, our model calculates large reduction of SOA, leading to a positive direct radiative forcing (warming) of 0.5-1 W m-2 in

  18. Aerosol climate effects and air quality impacts from 1980 to 2030

    SciTech Connect

    Menon, Surabi; Menon, Surabi; Unger, Nadine; Koch, Dorothy; Francis, Jennifer; Garrett, Tim; Sednev, Igor; Shindell, Drew; Streets, David

    2007-11-26

    We investigate aerosol effects on climate for 1980, 1995 (meant to reflect present-day) and 2030 using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model coupled to an on-line aerosol source and transport model with interactive oxidant and aerosol chemistry. Aerosols simulated include sulfates, organic matter (OM), black carbon (BC), sea-salt and dust and additionally, the amount of tropospheric ozone is calculated, allowing us to estimate both changes to air quality and climate for different time periods and emission amounts. We include both the direct aerosol effect and indirect aerosol effects for liquid-phase clouds. Future changes for the 2030 A1B scenario are examined, focusing on the Arctic and Asia, since changes are pronounced in these regions. Our results for the different time periods include both emission changes and physical climate changes. We find that the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) has a large impact on photochemical processing, decreasing ozone amount and ozone forcing, especially for the future (2030-1995). Ozone forcings increase from 0 to 0.12 Wm{sup -2} and the total aerosol forcing increases from -0.10 Wm{sup -2} to -0.94 Wm{sup -2} (AIE increases from -0.13 to -0.68 Wm{sup -2}) for 1995-1980 versus 2030-1995. Over the Arctic we find that compared to ozone and the direct aerosol effect, the AIE contributes the most to net radiative flux changes. The AIE, calculated for 1995-1980, is positive (1.0 Wm{sup -2}), but the magnitude decreases (-0.3Wm{sup -2}) considerably for the future scenario. Over Asia, we evaluate the role of biofuel and transportation-based emissions (for BC and OM) via a scenario (2030A) that includes a projected increase (factor of two) in biofuel and transport-based emissions for 2030 A1B over Asia. Projected changes from present-day due to the 2030A emissions versus 2030 A1B are a factor of 4 decrease in summertime precipitation in Asia. Our results are sensitive to emissions used. Uncertainty in present

  19. Sulfate Aerosol Control of Tropical Atlantic Climate over the Twentieth Century

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chang, C.-Y.; Chiang, J. C. H.; Wehner, M. F.; Friedman, A. R.; Ruedy, R.

    2011-01-01

    The tropical Atlantic interhemispheric gradient in sea surface temperature significantly influences the rainfall climate of the tropical Atlantic sector, including droughts over West Africa and Northeast Brazil. This gradient exhibits a secular trend from the beginning of the twentieth century until the 1980s, with stronger warming in the south relative to the north. This trend behavior is on top of a multi-decadal variation associated with the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation. A similar long-term forced trend is found in a multimodel ensemble of forced twentieth-century climate simulations. Through examining the distribution of the trend slopes in the multimodel twentieth-century and preindustrial models, the authors conclude that the observed trend in the gradient is unlikely to arise purely from natural variations; this study suggests that at least half the observed trend is a forced response to twentieth-century climate forcings. Further analysis using twentieth-century single-forcing runs indicates that sulfate aerosol forcing is the predominant cause of the multimodel trend. The authors conclude that anthropogenic sulfate aerosol emissions, originating predominantly from the Northern Hemisphere, may have significantly altered the tropical Atlantic rainfall climate over the twentieth century

  20. A review of measurement-based assessment of aerosol direct radiative effect and forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, H.; Kaufman, Y. J.; Chin, M.; Feingold, G.; Remer, L. A.; Anderson, T. L.; Balkanski, Y.; Bellouin, N.; Boucher, O.; Christopher, S.; Decola, P.; Kahn, R.; Koch, D.; Loeb, N.; Reddy, M. S.; Schulz, M.; Takemura, T.; Zhou, M.

    2005-08-01

    Aerosols affect the Earth's energy budget ''directly'' by scattering and absorbing radiation and ''indirectly'' by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and, thereby, affecting cloud properties. However, large uncertainties exist in current estimates of aerosol forcing because of incomplete knowledge concerning the distribution and the physical and chemical properties of aerosols as well as aerosol-cloud interactions. In recent years, a great deal of effort has gone into improving measurements and datasets. It is thus feasible to shift the estimates of aerosol forcing from largely model-based to increasingly measurement-based. Here we assess the aerosol optical depth, direct radiative effect (DRE) by natural and anthropogenic aerosols, and direct climate forcing (DCF) by anthropogenic aerosols, focusing on satellite and ground-based measurements supplemented by global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations. The multi-spectral MODIS measures global distributions of aerosol optical thickness (τ) on a daily scale, with a high accuracy of ±0.03±0.05τ over ocean. The annual average τ is about 0.14 over global ocean, of which about 21% is contributed by human activities, as determined by MODIS fine-mode fraction. The multi-angle MISR derives an annual average AOT of 0.23 over global land with an uncertainty of ~20% or ± 0.05. These high-accuracy aerosol products and broadband flux measurements from CERES make it feasible to obtain observational constraints for the aerosol direct effect, especially over global ocean. A number of measurement-based approaches estimate the clear-sky DRE (on solar radiation) at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) to be about -5.5±0.2 Wm-2 (median ± standard error) over global ocean. Accounting for thin cirrus contamination of the satellite derived aerosol field will reduce the TOA DRE to -5.0 Wm-2. Because of a lack of measurements of aerosol absorption and difficulty in characterizing land surface reflection, estimates of DRE over land and

  1. Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing from Combined A-Train Observations - Preliminary Comparisons with AeroCom Models and Pathways to Observationally Based All-sky Estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Redemann, J.; Livingston, J. M.; Shinozuka, Y.; Kacenelenbogen, M. S.; Russell, P. B.; LeBlanc, S. E.; Vaughan, M.; Ferrare, R. A.; Hostetler, C. A.; Rogers, R. R.; Burton, S. P.; Torres, O.; Remer, L. A.; Stier, P.; Schutgens, N.

    2014-12-01

    We describe a technique for combining CALIOP aerosol backscatter, MODIS spectral AOD (aerosol optical depth), and OMI AAOD (absorption aerosol optical depth) retrievals for the purpose of estimating full spectral sets of aerosol radiative properties, and ultimately for calculating the 3-D distribution of direct aerosol radiative forcing. We present results using one year of data collected in 2007 and show comparisons of the aerosol radiative property estimates to collocated AERONET retrievals. Use of the recently released MODIS Collection 6 data for aerosol optical depths derived with the dark target and deep blue algorithms has extended the coverage of the multi-sensor estimates towards higher latitudes. Initial calculations of seasonal clear-sky aerosol radiative forcing based on our multi-sensor aerosol retrievals compare well with over-ocean and top of the atmosphere IPCC-2007 model-based results, and with more recent assessments in the "Climate Change Science Program Report: Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts" (2009). For the first time, we present comparisons of our multi-sensor aerosol direct radiative forcing estimates to values derived from a subset of models that participated in the latest AeroCom initiative. We discuss the major challenges that exist in extending our clear-sky results to all-sky conditions. On the basis of comparisons to suborbital measurements, we present some of the limitations of the MODIS and CALIOP retrievals in the presence of adjacent or underlying clouds. Strategies for meeting these challenges are discussed.

  2. Estimation of aerosol direct radiative forcing in Lecce during the 2013 ADRIMED campaign

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barragan, Ruben; Romano, Salvatore; Sicard, Michaël.; Burlizzi, Pasquale; Perrone, Maria-Rita; Comeron, Adolfo

    2015-10-01

    In the framework of the ChArMEx (Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment, http://charmex.lsce.ipsl.fr/) initiative, a field campaign took place in the western Mediterranean Basin between 10 June and 5 July 2013 within the ADRIMED (Aerosol Direct Radiative Impact on the regional climate in the MEDiterranean region) project. The scientific objectives of ADRIMED are the characterization of the typical "Mediterranean aerosol" and its direct radiative forcing (column closure and regional scale). This work is focused on the multi-intrusion Saharan dust transport period of moderate intensity that occurred over the western and central Mediterranean Basin during the period 14 - 27 June. The dust plumes were detected by the EARLINET/ACTRIS (European Aerosol Research Lidar Network / Aerosols, Clouds, and Trace gases Research InfraStructure Network, http://www.actris.net/) lidar stations of Barcelona (16 and 17 June) and Lecce (22 June). First, two well-known and robust radiative transfer models, parametrized by lidar profiles for the aerosol vertical distribution, are validated both in the shortwave and longwave spectral range 1) at the surface with down- and up-ward flux measurements from radiometers and 2) at the top of the atmosphere with upward flux measurements from the CERES (Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System) radiometers on board the AQUA and TERRA satellites. The differences between models and their limitations are discussed. The instantaneous and clear-sky direct radiative forcing of mineral dust is then estimated using lidar data for parametrizing the particle vertical distribution at Lecce. The difference between the obtained forcings is discussed in regard to the mineralogy and vertical structure of the dust plume.

  3. WRF-Chem simulations of aerosols and anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing in East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Yi; Zhao, Chun; Liu, Xiaohong; Zhang, Meigen; Leung, L. Ruby

    2014-08-01

    This study aims to provide a first comprehensive evaluation of WRF-Chem for modeling aerosols and anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing (RF, including direct, semi-direct and indirect forcing) over East Asia. Several numerical experiments were conducted from November 2007 to December 2008. Comparison between model results and observations shows that the model can generally reproduce the observed spatial distributions of aerosol concentration, aerosol optical depth (AOD) and single scattering albedo (SSA) from measurements at many sites, including the relatively higher aerosol concentration and AOD over East China and the relatively lower AOD over Southeast Asia, Korea, and Japan. The model also depicts the seasonal variation and transport of pollutions over East Asia. Particulate matter of 10 μm or less in the aerodynamic diameter (PM10), black carbon (BC), sulfate (SO42-), nitrate (NO3-) and ammonium (NH4+) concentrations are higher in spring than other seasons in Japan, which indicates the possible influence of pollutant transport from polluted area of East Asia. The model underestimates SO42- and organic carbon (OC) concentrations over mainland China by about a factor of 2, while overestimates NO3- concentration in autumn along the Yangtze River. The model captures the dust events at the Zhangye site in the semi-arid region of China. AOD is high over Southwest and Central China in winter and spring and over North China in winter, spring and summer while is low over South China in summer due to monsoon precipitation. SSA is lowest in winter and highest in summer. Anthropogenic aerosol RF is estimated to range from -5 to -20 W m-2 over land and -20 to -40 W m-2 over adjacent oceans at the top of atmosphere (TOA), 5-30 W m-2 in the atmosphere (ATM) and -15 to -40 W m-2 at the bottom (BOT). The warming effect of anthropogenic aerosol in ATM results from BC aerosol while the negative aerosol RF at TOA is caused by scattering aerosols such as SO42-, NO3- and NH4

  4. Aerosols, climate, and the hydrological cycle.

    PubMed

    Ramanathan, V; Crutzen, P J; Kiehl, J T; Rosenfeld, D

    2001-12-01

    Human activities are releasing tiny particles (aerosols) into the atmosphere. These human-made aerosols enhance scattering and absorption of solar radiation. They also produce brighter clouds that are less efficient at releasing precipitation. These in turn lead to large reductions in the amount of solar irradiance reaching Earth's surface, a corresponding increase in solar heating of the atmosphere, changes in the atmospheric temperature structure, suppression of rainfall, and less efficient removal of pollutants. These aerosol effects can lead to a weaker hydrological cycle, which connects directly to availability and quality of fresh water, a major environmental issue of the 21st century. PMID:11739947

  5. The regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pietikäinen, J.-P.; O'Donnell, D.; Teichmann, C.; Karstens, U.; Pfeifer, S.; Kazil, J.; Podzun, R.; Fiedler, S.; Kokkola, H.; Birmili, W.; O'Dowd, C.; Baltensperger, U.; Weingartner, E.; Gehrig, R.; Spindler, G.; Kulmala, M.; Feichter, J.; Jacob, D.; Laaksonen, A.

    2012-11-01

    REMO-HAM is a new regional aerosol-climate model. It is based on the REMO regional climate model and includes most of the major aerosol processes. The structure for aerosol is similar to the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM, for example the aerosol module HAM is coupled with a two-moment stratiform cloud scheme. On the other hand, REMO-HAM does not include an online coupled aerosol-radiation nor a secondary organic aerosol module. In this work, we evaluate the model and compare the results against ECHAM5-HAM and measurements. Four different measurement sites were chosen for the comparison of total number concentrations, size distributions and gas phase sulfur dioxide concentrations: Hyytiälä in Finland, Melpitz in Germany, Mace Head in Ireland and Jungfraujoch in Switzerland. REMO-HAM is run with two different resolutions: 50 × 50 km2 and 10 × 10 km2. Based on our simulations, REMO-HAM is in reasonable agreement with the measured values. The differences in the total number concentrations between REMO-HAM and ECHAM5-HAM can be mainly explained by the difference in the nucleation mode. Since we did not use activation nor kinetic nucleation for the boundary layer, the total number concentrations are somewhat underestimated. From the meteorological point of view, REMO-HAM represents the precipitation fields and 2 m temperature profile very well compared to measurement. Overall, we show that REMO-HAM is a functional aerosol-climate model, which will be used in further studies.

  6. Aerosol and ozone radiative forcing 1990-2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Myhre, Cathrine Lund; Myhre, Gunnar; Samset, Bjørn H.; Schulz, Michael

    2016-04-01

    The regional changes in economic growth and pollution regulations have caused large changes in the geographical distribution of emissions of precursors and components affecting the radiation balance. Here we use recently updated emission data over the 1990-2015 period in eight global aerosol models to simulate aerosol and ozone changes and their radiative forcing. The models reproduce the general large-scale changes in aerosol and ozone changes over this period. The surface particle mass changes is simulated to 2-3 %/yr for the total fine particle concentration over main industrialized regions. Six models simulated changes in PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less 2.5 μm) over the 1990-2015 period. Observations of changes in PM2.5 are available for selected regions and time periods. The available PM2.5 trends from observations and model mean results are compared and for Europe the observed trend is 20% stronger than the model-mean over the 2000-2010 period. Over the 1990-2010 period the US observed changes are 13% lower than the simulated changes. Despite this relatively promising result, the agreement over US for the 2000-2010 period is poor. The reasons for this will be further explored. The forcing for ozone and aerosols increase over the 1990-2015 period and more positive relative to results in IPCC AR5. The main reason for a positive aerosol forcing over this period is explained by a substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions, in parallel with increasing black carbon emissions.

  7. Aerosol size distribution and radiative forcing response to anthropogenically driven historical changes in biogenic secondary organic aerosol formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Andrea, S. D.; Acosta Navarro, J. C.; Farina, S. C.; Scott, C. E.; Rap, A.; Farmer, D. K.; Spracklen, D. V.; Riipinen, I.; Pierce, J. R.

    2014-10-01

    and the global mean cloud-albedo aerosol indirect effect of between -0.008 and -0.056 W m-2. This change in aerosols, and the associated radiative forcing, could be a~largely overlooked and important anthropogenic aerosol effect on regional climates.

  8. Indian monsoon and the elevated-heat-pump mechanism in a coupled aerosol-climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Errico, Miriam; Cagnazzo, Chiara; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Lau, William K. M.; Hardenberg, Jost; Fierli, Federico; Cherchi, Annalisa

    2015-09-01

    A coupled aerosol-atmosphere-ocean-sea ice climate model is used to explore the interaction between aerosols and the Indian summer monsoon precipitation on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. Results show that when increased aerosol loading is found on the Himalayas slopes in the premonsoon period (April-May), intensification of early monsoon rainfall over India and increased low-level westerly flow follow, in agreement with the elevated-heat-pump mechanism. The increase in rainfall during the early monsoon season has a cooling effect on the land surface. In the same period, enhanced surface cooling may also be amplified through solar dimming by more cloudiness and aerosol loading, via increased dust transported by low-level westerly flow. The surface cooling causes subsequent reduction in monsoon rainfall in July-August over India. The time-lagged nature of the reasonably realistic response of the model to aerosol forcing suggests that absorbing aerosols, besides their potential key roles in impacting monsoon water cycle and climate, may influence the seasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon.

  9. Influence of aerosols on surface reaching spectral irradiance and introduction to a new technique of estimating aerosol radiative forcing from high resolution spectral flux measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rao, Roshan

    2016-04-01

    Aerosol radiative forcing estimates with high certainty are required in climate change studies. The approach in estimating the aerosol radiative forcing by using the chemical composition of aerosols is not effective as the chemical composition data with radiative properties are not widely available. We look into the approach where ground based spectral radiation flux measurement is made and along with an Radtiative transfer (RT) model, radiative forcing is estimated. Measurements of spectral flux were made using an ASD spectroradiometer with 350 - 1050 nm wavelength range and a 3nm resolution during around 54 clear-sky days during which AOD range was around 0.01 to 0.7. Simultaneous measurements of black carbon were also made using Aethalometer (Magee Scientific) which ranged from around 1.5 ug/m3 to 8 ug/m3. The primary study involved in understanding the sensitivity of spectral flux due to change in individual aerosol species (Optical properties of Aerosols and Clouds (OPAC) classified aerosol species) using the SBDART RT model. This made us clearly distinguish the influence of different aerosol species on the spectral flux. Following this, a new technique has been introduced to estimate an optically equivalent mixture of aerosol species for the given location. The new method involves matching different combinations of aerosol species in OPAC model and RT model as long as the combination which gives the minimum root mean squared deviation from measured spectral flux is obtained. Using the optically equivalent aerosol mixture and RT model, aerosol radiative forcing is estimated. Also an alternate method to estimate the spectral SSA is discussed. Here, the RT model, the observed spectral flux and spectral AOD is used. Spectral AOD is input to RT model and SSA is varied till the minimum root mean squared difference between observed and simulated spectral flux from RT model is obtained. The methods discussed are limited to clear sky scenes and its accuracy to derive

  10. Potential climate forcing of land use and land cover change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, D. S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Kloster, S.

    2014-12-01

    Pressure on land resources is expected to increase as global population continues to climb and the world becomes more affluent, swelling the demand for food. Changing climate may exert additional pressures on natural lands as present-day productive regions may shift, or soil quality may degrade, and the recent rise in demand for biofuels increases competition with edible crops for arable land. Given these projected trends there is a need to understand the global climate impacts of land use and land cover change (LULCC). Here we quantify the climate impacts of global LULCC in terms of modifications to the balance between incoming and outgoing radiation at the top of the atmosphere (radiative forcing, RF) that are caused by changes in long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol effects, and land surface albedo. We attribute historical changes in terrestrial carbon storage, global fire emissions, secondary organic aerosol emissions, and surface albedo to LULCC using simulations with the Community Land Model version 3.5. These LULCC emissions are combined with estimates of agricultural emissions of important trace gases and mineral dust in two sets of Community Atmosphere Model simulations to calculate the RF of changes in atmospheric chemistry and aerosol concentrations attributed to LULCC. With all forcing agents considered together, we show that 40% (±16%) of the present-day anthropogenic RF can be attributed to LULCC. Changes in the emission of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols from LULCC enhance the total LULCC RF by a factor of 2 to 3 with respect to the LULCC RF from CO2 alone. This enhancement factor also applies to projected LULCC RF, which we compute for four future scenarios associated with the Representative Concentration Pathways. We attribute total RFs between 0.9 and 1.9 W m-2 to LULCC for the year 2100 (relative to a pre-industrial state). To place an upper bound on the potential of LULCC to alter the global radiation budget

  11. Potential climate forcing of land use and land cover change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, D. S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Kloster, S.

    2014-05-01

    Pressure on land resources is expected to increase as global population continues to climb and the world becomes more affluent, swelling the demand for food. Changing climate may exert additional pressures on natural lands as present day productive regions may shift, or soil quality may degrade, and the recent rise in demand for biofuels increases competition with edible crops for arable land. Given these projected trends there is a need to understand the global climate impacts of land use and land cover change (LULCC). Here we quantify the climate impacts of global LULCC in terms of modifications to the balance between incoming and outgoing radiation at the top of the atmosphere (radiative forcing; RF) that are caused by changes in long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol effects and land surface albedo. We simulate historical changes to terrestrial carbon storage, global fire emissions, secondary organic aerosol emissions, and surface albedo from LULCC using the Community Land Model version 3.5. These LULCC emissions are combined with estimates of agricultural emissions of important trace gases and mineral dust in two sets of Community Atmosphere Model simulations to calculate the RF from LULCC impacts on atmospheric chemistry and changes in aerosol concentrations. With all forcing agents considered together, we show that 45% (+30%, -20%) of the present-day anthropogenic RF can be attributed to LULCC. Changes in the emission of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols from LULCC enhance the total LULCC RF by a factor of 2 to 3 with respect to the LULCC RF from CO2 alone. This enhancement factor also applies to projected LULCC RF, which we compute for four future scenarios associated with the Representative Concentration Pathways. We calculate total RFs between 1 to 2 W m-2 from LULCC for the year 2100 (relative to a preindustrial state). To place an upper bound on the potential of LULCC to alter the global radiation budget we include a fifth

  12. Aerosols and Clouds: In Cahoots to Change Climate

    ScienceCinema

    Berg, Larry

    2014-06-02

    Key knowledge gaps persist despite advances in the scientific understanding of how aerosols and clouds evolve and affect climate. The Two-Column Aerosol Project, or TCAP, was designed to provide a detailed set of observations to tackle this area of unknowns. Led by PNNL atmospheric scientist Larry Berg, ARM's Climate Research Facility was deployed in Cape Cod, Massachusetts for the 12-month duration of TCAP, which came to a close in June 2013. "We are developing new tools to look at particle chemistry, like our mass spectrometer used in TCAP that can tell us the individual chemical composition of an aerosol," said Berg. "Then, we'll run our models and compare it with the data that we have to make sure we're getting correct answers and make sure our climate models are reflecting the best information."

  13. Aerosols and Clouds: In Cahoots to Change Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Berg, Larry

    2014-03-29

    Key knowledge gaps persist despite advances in the scientific understanding of how aerosols and clouds evolve and affect climate. The Two-Column Aerosol Project, or TCAP, was designed to provide a detailed set of observations to tackle this area of unknowns. Led by PNNL atmospheric scientist Larry Berg, ARM's Climate Research Facility was deployed in Cape Cod, Massachusetts for the 12-month duration of TCAP, which came to a close in June 2013. "We are developing new tools to look at particle chemistry, like our mass spectrometer used in TCAP that can tell us the individual chemical composition of an aerosol," said Berg. "Then, we'll run our models and compare it with the data that we have to make sure we're getting correct answers and make sure our climate models are reflecting the best information."

  14. Spatial patterns of substantial climate impact from anthropogenic aerosols in the early instrumental period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Undorf, Sabine; Bollasina, Massimo; Hegerl, Gabriele

    2016-04-01

    While many aspects of climate variation in the early instrumental period (1860-1950) are still unexplained, for instance the early twentieth-century warming from the 1910s to the 1940s, the role of anthropogenic aerosols in this period has been overlooked. Yet, the period is also an interesting case study to isolate aerosol impacts since it is characterised by the increase of North American and especially European aerosol emissions concurrently with negligible Asian emissions and relatively low carbon dioxide concentrations. We thus analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of aerosol impact for this period in available observations (NOAA 20th-century reanalysis, etc.) and historical single-forcing and all-forcing experiments with state-of-the-art CMIP5 models. We make use of coupled empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) applied to surface temperature -the most reliable variable in observations- and different aerosol indicating variables such as aerosol optical depth and short-wave downward radiation, some of which include aerosol indirect effects. The principal components of the most important EOFs are then regressed onto sea level pressure, winds, and other variables to identify associated circulation patterns. A decomposition into multi-decadal and longer time scales is performed by filtering the data prior to the analysis. Our analysis reveals both statistically significant local and non-local aerosol impact and identifies circulation states associated with the temperature response. The results are consistent across different aerosol variables, and show a strong non-local response as well as specific differences between time scales. We find a distinctive circulation pattern which strongly resembles observations and might explain the observed early twentieth century warming in the Arctic.

  15. Energy and future climate forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Edmonds, J.A.; Scott, M.J.

    1987-06-01

    The ''greenhouse'' issue is a term used to refer to a physical phenomenon in which the presence of radiatively active gases in the atmosphere absorb infrared radiation escaping into space and thereby warm the surface of the earth. In the absence of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO/sub 2/), water vapor (H/sub 2/O), ozone (O/sub 3/), methane (CH/sub 4/), and nitrous oxide (N/sub 2/O), the earth's average surface temperature would be approximately zero degrees Fahrenheit rather than the 60 degrees F. that we observe. The greenhouse issue is a matter of increasing public concern because of the growing body of evidence that human activities are systematically altering the composition of the atmosphere. In 1800 the concentration of CO/sub 2/ was 280 parts per million volume (ppMv) (within an uncertainty range of 260--285 ppMv). In 1984 the average annual concentration measured at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii was 344 ppMv. The formulation of appropriate policy options to address the greenhouse issue depend on the accumulation of reliable information in four domains: emissions, atmospheric composition, climate, and consequences. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the current state of knowledge in the area of emissions. 30 refs., 1 fig., 5 tabs.

  16. Is the radiative forcing due to black carbon aerosols as large as some recent studies suggest?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boucher, O.; Wang, R.; Balkanski, Y.; Tao, S.; Myhre, G.; Valari, M.; Huneeus, N.

    2013-12-01

    Anthropogenic black carbon aerosols is responsible for a radiative forcing due to aerosol-radiation interactions (RFari), aerosol-cloud interactions (RFaci) and aerosol-snow interactions (RFasi). All estimates are very uncertain but some recent studies (e.g. Chung et al., 2012; Bond et al., 2013) have suggested that global models significantly underestimate aerosol absorption and have applied scaling factors to correct for this underestimation. As a result Bond et al. estimate RFari to be +0.5 (+0.1 to +0.9) Wm-2 for fossil fuel and biofuel only. The fifth assessment report adopted an estimate of +0.4 (+0.05 to +0.8) Wm-2. In this presentation we will show that a number of factors are likely to lead to overestimate the discrepancy in aerosol absorption between observations and models, which questions the need for very large scaling factors to reconcile models with observations. Issues with past methodological include a too small correction for NO2 absorption in AERONET retrievals of aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) at 440 nm, representativity errors when comparing outputs from global models with AERONET retrievals, and model biases in aerosol vertical profiles. We will show in particular how a new emission inventory and high-resolution aerosol modelling over Asia can resolve a significant fraction of the discrepancy with observations. Bond, T. C., et al., 2013: Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment. Journal of Geophysical Research, 118, 5380-5552, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50171. Chung, C. E., V. Ramanathan, and D. Decremer, 2012: Observationally constrained estimates of carbonaceous aerosol radiative forcing. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 109, 11624-11629 Geographic distributions of BC emission density (A, MACCity; B, PKU-BC), modeled surface BC concentrations (C, by MACCity/INCA; D, by PKU-BC/INCA-zA), and modeled BC AAOD (E, by MACCity/INCA; F, by PKU-BC/INCA-zA). The

  17. Radiative Forcing, Satellite Validation, and Thermodynamic Impact of Aerosols during Aerose Campaigns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flores, A.; Joseph, E.; Nalli, N. R.; Smirnov, A.; Morris, V. R.; Wolfe, D. E.; Aerose Team

    2011-12-01

    An estimated three billion metric tons of mineral aerosols are injected into the troposphere annually from the Saharan desert [Prospero et al., 1996]. These windswept aerosols from the African continent are responsible for a variety of climate, health, and environmental impacts on both global and regional scales that span the Western Hemisphere [Morris et al., 2006]. The Aerosol and Ocean Science Expeditions (AEROSE) are a great opportunity to tackle these impacts. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) appears to retain its Saharan characteristics of warm, stable air near its base, and dryness and dustiness throughout its depth as it is carried as far as the western Caribbean Sea [Dunion & Velden, 2004]. AEROSE provides insitu characterization of the impact of aerosols of African origin on energy balance and microphysical evolution of mineral dust outflow over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. By quantifying the radiative properties of the SAL, aerosol optical depths (AOD) as high as 1.6 was detected over the Atlantic [Nalli et al., 2011], producing a shortwave forcing of 200 W/m2 and therefore a warming just above the marine boundary layer for this particular case. Also in this study, AOD values from AEROSE have been compared with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), showing variety on each campaign.

  18. Evaluation of aerosol indirect radiative effects on climate in the EMAC model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Dong Yeong; Tost, Holger; Steil, Benedikt; Lelieveld, Jos

    2013-04-01

    Anthropogenic aerosol particles directly and indirectly influence cloud properties and the Earth's radiative energy budget. Several studies have estimated the effects on climate using global circulation models (GCMs), indicating large differences between different models and large uncertainty ranges. These are mostly attributed to different cloud microphysical process parameterizations and uncertainties in the representation of aerosols. Without detailed cloud microphysical processes, using empirical relations between aerosol number or mass and cloud droplet number potentially even large discrepancies may arise. In the present study, a mechanistic aerosol activation scheme, based on double moment cloud microphysics, is used to compute aerosol indirect radiative and cloud effects in the EMAC model. Aerosol activation is linked to the cloud droplet nucleation processes in warm clouds, accounting for the number, size, and chemical composition of particles under ambient meteorological conditions. This approach uses a combination of empirical and semi-empirical parameters to represent aerosol water uptake and hygroscopic growth into cloud droplets. To evaluate the performance of our approach satellite datasets are used; for example, total cloud fraction from MODIS data and cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere from CERES EBAF data.

  19. Modeling the Relationships Between Aerosol Properties and the Direct and Indirect Effects of Aerosols on Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Toon, Owen B.

    1994-01-01

    Aerosols may affect climate directly by scattering and absorbing visible and infrared energy, They may also affect climate indirectly by modifying the properties of clouds through microphysical processes, and by altering abundances of radiatively important gases through heterogeneous chemistry. Researchers understand which aerosol properties control the direct effect of aerosols on the radiation budget. Unfortunately, despite an abundance of data on certain types of aerosols, much work remains to be done to determine the values of these properties. For instance we have little idea about the global distribution, seasonal variation, or interannual variability of the aerosol optical depth. Also we do not know the visible light absorption properties of tropical aerosols which may contain much debris from slash and burn agriculture. A positive correlation between aerosol concentrations and albedos of marine stratus clouds is observed, and the causative microphysics is understood. However, models suggest that it is difficult to produce new particles in the marine boundary layer. Some modelers have suggested that the particles in the marine boundary layer may originate in the free troposphere and be transported into the boundary layer. Others argue that the aerosols are created in the marine boundary layer. There are no data linking aerosol concentration and cirrus cloud albedo, and models suggest cirrus properties may not be very sensitive to aerosol abundance. There is clear evidence of a radiatively significant change in the global lower stratospheric ozone abundance during the past few decades. These changes are caused by heterogeneous chemical reactions occurring on the surfaces of particles. The rates of these reactions depend upon the chemical composition of the particles. Although rapid advances in understanding heterogeneous chemistry have been made, much remains to be done.

  20. Solar Variability in the Context of Other Climate Forcing Mechanisms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.

    1999-01-01

    I compare and contrast climate forcings due to solar variability with climate forcings due to other mechanisms of climate change, interpretation of the role of the sun in climate change depends upon climate sensitivity and upon the net forcing by other climate change mechanisms. Among the potential indirect climate forcings due to solar variability, only that due to solar cycle induced ozone changes has been well quantified. There is evidence that the sun has been a significant player in past climate change on decadal to century time scales, and that it has the potential to contribute to climate change in the 21st century.

  1. GCM estimate of the indirect aerosol forcing using satellite-retrieved cloud droplet effective radii

    SciTech Connect

    Boucher, O.

    1995-05-01

    In a recent paper, satellite data radiances were analyzed to retrieve cloud droplet effective radii and significant interhemispheric differences for both maritime and continental clouds were reported. The mean cloud droplet radius in the Northern Hemisphere is smaller than in the Southern Hemisphere by about 0.7 {mu}m. This hemispheric contrast suggests the presence of an aerosol effect on cloud droplet size and is consistent with higher cloud condensation nuclei number concentration in the Northern Hemisphere due to anthropogenic production of aerosol precursors. In the present study, we constrain a climate model with the satellite retrievals and discuss the climate forcing that can be inferred from the observed distribution of cloud droplet radius. Based on two sets of experiments, this sensitivity study suggests that the indirect radiative forcing by anthropogenic aerosols could be about -0.6 or -1 W m{sup -2} averaged in the 0{degrees}-50{degrees}N latitude band. The uncertainty of these estimates is difficult to assess but is at least 50%. 30 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  2. Climate response of the South Asian monsoon system to anthropogenic aerosols

    SciTech Connect

    Ganguly, Dilip; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Hailong; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2012-07-13

    The equilibrium climate response to the total effects (direct, indirect and semi-direct effects) of aerosols arising from anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions on the South Asian summer monsoon system is studied using a coupled atmosphere-slab ocean model. Our results suggest that anthropogenic and biomass burning aerosols generally induce a reduction in mean summer monsoon precipitation over most parts of the Indian subcontinent, strongest along the western coastline of the Indian peninsula and eastern Nepal region, but modest increases also occur over the north western part of the subcontinent. While most of the noted reduction in precipitation is triggered by increased emissions of aerosols from anthropogenic activities, modest increases in the north west are mostly associated with decreases in local emissions of aerosols from forest fire and grass fire sources. Anthropogenic aerosols from outside Asia also contribute to the overall reduction in precipitation but the dominant contribution comes from aerosol sources within Asia. Local emissions play a more important role in the total rainfall response to anthropogenic aerosol sources during the early monsoon period, whereas both local as well as remote emissions of aerosols play almost equally important roles during the later part of the monsoon period. While precipitation responses are primarily driven by local aerosol forcing, regional surface temperature changes over the region are strongly influenced by anthropogenic aerosols from sources further away (non-local changes). Changes in local anthropogenic organic and black carbon emissions by as much as a factor of two (preserving their ratio) produce the same basic signatures in the model's summer monsoon temperature and precipitation responses.

  3. Long-wave radiative forcing due to dust aerosols: observations and climatology comparisons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gunn, L. N.; Collins, W.

    2012-12-01

    Dust aerosols have been identified by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change as a major source of uncertainty in the radiative forcing of the climate system. Optically thick plumes of dust and pollutants originating from arid regions can be lifted into the middle troposphere and are often transported over synoptic length scales. These events can decrease the upwelling long-wave fluxes at the top of atmosphere (TOA), especially in the mid-infrared portion of the spectrum. Although the long-wave effects of dust are included in model simulations, it is difficult to validate these effects in the absence of satellite-derived global estimates. Using hyper-spectral measurements from NASA's AIRS instrument, we estimate long-wave radiative forcing due to dust over the oceans for the year 2007. Firstly, we will present the results of these global, year long, radiative forcing estimates and secondly, we will use these estimates, along with other variables available from A-train instruments (e.g. MODIS aerosol optical depth) to evaluate the long-wave radiative forcing values from climatological data.

  4. Absorbing Aerosols Above Cloud: Detection, Quantitative Retrieval, and Radiative Forcing from Satellite-based Passive Sensors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jethva, H.; Torres, O.; Remer, L. A.; Bhartia, P. K.

    2012-12-01

    Light absorbing particles such as carbonaceous aerosols generated from biomass burning activities and windblown dust particles can exert a net warming effect on climate; the strength of which depends on the absorption capacity of the particles and brightness of the underlying reflecting background. When advected over low-level bright clouds, these aerosols absorb the cloud reflected radiation from ultra-violet (UV) to shortwave-IR (SWIR) and makes cloud scene darker-a phenomenon commonly known as "cloud darkening". The apparent "darkening" effect can be seen by eyes in satellite images as well as quantitatively in the spectral reflectance measurements made by space borne sensors over regions where light absorbing carbonaceous and dust aerosols overlay low-level cloud decks. Theoretical radiative transfer simulations support the observational evidence, and further reveal that the strength of the cloud darkening and its spectral signature (or color ratio) between measurements at two wavelengths are a bi-function of aerosol and cloud optical thickness (AOT and COT); both are measures of the total amount of light extinction caused by aerosols and cloud, respectively. Here, we developed a retrieval technique, named as the "color ratio method" that uses the satellite measurements at two channels, one at shorter wavelength in the visible and one at longer wavelength in the shortwave-IR for the simultaneous retrieval of AOT and COT. The present technique requires assumptions on the aerosol single-scattering albedo and aerosol-cloud separation which are supplemented by the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and space borne CALIOP lidar measurements. The retrieval technique has been tested making use of the near-UV and visible reflectance observations made by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for distinct above-cloud smoke and dust aerosol events observed seasonally over the southeast and tropical Atlantic Ocean

  5. Aerosol impacts on climate and environment over East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakata, M.; Sano, I.; Mukai, S.

    2014-12-01

    It is well known that the aerosol distribution in East Asia is complex due to both the increasing emissions of the anthropogenic aerosols associated with economic growth and the behavior of natural dusts. Therefore, detailed observations of atmospheric particles in East Asian are important. It is concerned about the change of concentration of aerosols causes various effects on the climate by directly and indirectly modifying the optical properties and lifetimes of cloud. In addition to radiation budget change, aerosol has a significant potential to change cloud and precipitation. These circulation fields change influence on emission of natural aerosols such as dust aerosols and sea salt aerosols. Also, air pollution in megacities in East Asia has become a serious problem. Especially problematic are fine particles called PM2.5, whose diameter is 2.5 mm or less. Particulate matter (PM) pollution as indicated by high PM2.5 readings will cause a spike in the mortality rate of patients suffering from heart and lung diseases. Because fine particles are much smaller than inhalable coarse particles, the can penetrate deeper into the lungs and cause more severe effects on human health. Anthropogenic sources of PM2.5 include automobiles, factories, coal-burning power plants, and heaters in homes. It is well known that the size of dust particles decreases during long-range transport via westerly winds, and the resulting dust storms can contain high concentrations of fine particles. Accordingly, PM2.5 concentrations correspond well to both anthropogenic and dust aerosols. This work intends to investigate impacts of aerosol on regional climate change and environment over East Asia using observations and model simulations.

  6. Illinois task force on global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Griffin, B.S.

    1996-12-31

    The purpose of this report is to document progress in the areas of national policy development, emissions reduction, research and education, and adaptation, and to identify specific actions that will be undertaken to implement the Illinois state action plan. The task force has been tracking national and international climate change policy, and helping shape national policy agenda. Identification and implementation of cost-effective mitigation measures has been performed for emissions reduction. In the area of research and education, the task force is developing the capacity to measure climate change indicators, maintaining and enhancing Illinois relevant research, and strengthening climate change education. Activities relevant to adaptation to new policy include strengthening water laws and planning for adaptation. 6 figs., 4 tabs.

  7. Growing up MODIS: Towards a mature aerosol climate data record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levy, Robert C.

    2013-05-01

    Aerosols are major players within the Earth's climate system, affecting the radiation budget, clouds and the hydrological cycle. In high concentrations near the surface, aerosols (or particulate matter, PM) affect visibility, impact air quality, and can contribute to poor health. Among others, Yoram Kaufman recognized the importance of aerosols to climate, and helped to design new instrumentation and algorithms to retrieve and quantify global aerosol properties. One instrument, known as the Moderate Imaging Resolution Spectro-radiometer (MODIS), was deployed on the AM-1 satellite (later known as Terra), part of NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS). In 1998, armed with an M.S. and job experience in neither aerosols nor satellites, I was looking for a new job. I somehow found my way to the MODIS Aerosol team. It was only a year before Terra launch, and most major decisions about the MODIS aerosol retrieval algorithms had been finalized. Since then, we worked through launch, initial evaluation of the product with AERONET and field deployments, and continued efforts to understand the product and refine retrieval algorithms. I have had opportunities to participate in field experiments, write papers, and earn my PhD. The "second generation" algorithm for aerosol retrieval over land has been hugely successful. We have collected nearly a half-million collocations with AERONET and other dataseis, made new discoveries, and have contributed to research and operational projects globally. Due to the dedication of the entire team, the MODIS aerosol product now is one of the highlights of NASA's EOS program. It is used for climate research and air quality forecasting, as well for applications not even considered before the MODIS era. More recently, a focus is on stitching the MODIS aerosol product into the "climate data record" (CDR) for global aerosol, determining whether the product has sufficient length, consistency and continuity to determine climate variability and change

  8. Global direct radiative forcing by process-parameterized aerosol optical properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    KirkevâG, Alf; Iversen, Trond

    2002-10-01

    A parameterization of aerosol optical parameters is developed and implemented in an extended version of the community climate model version 3.2 (CCM3) of the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research. Direct radiative forcing (DRF) by monthly averaged calculated concentrations of non-sea-salt sulfate and black carbon (BC) is estimated. Inputs are production-specific BC and sulfate from [2002] and background aerosol size distribution and composition. The scheme interpolates between tabulated values to obtain the aerosol single scattering albedo, asymmetry factor, extinction coefficient, and specific extinction coefficient. The tables are constructed by full calculations of optical properties for an array of aerosol input values, for which size-distributed aerosol properties are estimated from theory for condensation and Brownian coagulation, assumed distribution of cloud-droplet residuals from aqueous phase oxidation, and prescribed properties of the background aerosols. Humidity swelling is estimated from the Köhler equation, and Mie calculations finally yield spectrally resolved aerosol optical parameters for 13 solar bands. The scheme is shown to give excellent agreement with nonparameterized DRF calculations for a wide range of situations. Using IPCC emission scenarios for the years 2000 and 2100, calculations with an atmospheric global cliamte model (AFCM) yield a global net anthropogenic DRF of -0.11 and 0.11 W m-2, respectively, when 90% of BC from biomass burning is assumed anthropogenic. In the 2000 scenario, the individual DRF due to sulfate and BC has separately been estimated to -0.29 and 0.19 W m-2, respectively. Our estimates of DRF by BC per BC mass burden are lower than earlier published estimates. Some sensitivity tests are included to investigate to what extent uncertain assumptions may influence these results.

  9. Stratospheric sulfur and its implications for radiative forcing simulated by the chemistry climate model EMAC

    PubMed Central

    Brühl, C; Lelieveld, J; Tost, H; Höpfner, M; Glatthor, N

    2015-01-01

    Multiyear simulations with the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC with a microphysical modal aerosol module at high vertical resolution demonstrate that the sulfur gases COS and SO2, the latter from low-latitude and midlatitude volcanic eruptions, predominantly control the formation of stratospheric aerosol. Marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and other SO2 sources, including strong anthropogenic emissions in China, are found to play a minor role except in the lowermost stratosphere. Estimates of volcanic SO2 emissions are based on satellite observations using Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and Ozone Monitoring Instrument for total injected mass and Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on Envisat or Stratospheric Aerosol and Gases Experiment for the spatial distribution. The 10 year SO2 and COS data set of MIPAS is also used for model evaluation. The calculated radiative forcing of stratospheric background aerosol including sulfate from COS and small contributions by DMS oxidation, and organic aerosol from biomass burning, is about 0.07W/m2. For stratospheric sulfate aerosol from medium and small volcanic eruptions between 2005 and 2011 a global radiative forcing up to 0.2W/m2 is calculated, moderating climate warming, while for the major Pinatubo eruption the simulated forcing reaches 5W/m2, leading to temporary climate cooling. The Pinatubo simulation demonstrates the importance of radiative feedback on dynamics, e.g., enhanced tropical upwelling, for large volcanic eruptions. PMID:25932352

  10. Moisture dynamics in the cloudy and polluted tropical atmosphere: The Cloud Aerosol Radiative Forcing Dynamics Experiment (CARDEX)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilcox, E. M.; Thomas, R. M.; Praveen, P. S.; Pistone, K.; Bender, F.; Feng, Y.; Ramanathan, V.

    2012-12-01

    Aerosols are well known to modify the microphysical properties of clouds. This modification is expected to yield brighter clouds that cover a greater area. However, observations from satellites show little inter-hemispheric difference in cloud optical thickness and liquid water path in spite of the clear inter-hemispheric difference in aerosol optical thickness. Furthermore, comparisons of observations with global atmospheric models suggest that models that parameterize the mechanisms of aerosol nucleation of cloud drops but do not resolve cloud-scale dynamics may be overestimating the magnitude of aerosol effects on cloud radiative forcing. Resolving these discrepancies requires a deeper understanding of the factors determining the transport of moisture to the cloud layer and the effects of aerosols on that transport. Towards this goal, we have conducted a new field experiment to study the moisture dynamics in the boundary layer and lower troposphere of the polluted and cloudy tropical atmosphere. The Cloud Aerosol Radiative Forcing Dynamics Experiment (CARDEX) was conducted during the winter of 2012 at the Maldives Climate Observatory - Hanimaadhoo in the tropical northern Indian Ocean during the period of extensive outflow of the South Asian pollution. Pollution in the CARDEX region has been well documented to both modify the microphysical properties of low clouds and strongly absorb solar radiation with significant consequences for the lower atmosphere and surface radiative energy budgets. Three unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) flew nearly 60 research flights instrumented to measure turbulent latent and sensible heat fluxes, aerosol concentrations, and cloud microphysical properties. Airborne measurements were enhanced with continuous surface monitoring of surface turbulent heat fluxes, aerosol concentrations and physical properties, surface remote sensing of cloud water amount and aerosol profiles, and model analyses of aerosols and dynamics with WRFchem. This

  11. Impact of Asia Dust Aerosols on Regional Environment and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, J.

    2015-12-01

    East Asia is a major dust source in the world and has great impacts on regional climate in Asia, where the large arid and semi-arid regions are. In this study, the typical transport paths of East Asia dust, which affect regional and global climates, are demonstrated and numerous effects of dust aerosols on clouds and precipitation primarily over East Asian arid and semi-arid regions are discussed. Compared with the dust aerosols of Saharan, those of East Asian are more absorptive of solar radiation, and can influence the cloud properties not only by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei but also through changing the relative humidity and stability of the atmosphere (via semi-direct effect). Converting visible light to thermal energy, dust aerosols can burn clouds to produce a warming effect on climate, which is opposite to the first and second indirect effects of aerosols. Over Asia arid and semi-arid regions, the positive feedback in the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction may aggravate drought in its inner land. Impact of Asia dust on regional environment, especially on haze weather, are also presented in this talk.

  12. Long-wave radiative forcing due to mineral dust aerosol

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gunn, L. N.; Collins, W.

    2010-12-01

    Radiative forcing due to aerosols has been identified by the IPCC as a major contributor to the total radiative forcing uncertainty budget. Optically thick plumes of dust and pollutants extending out from Africa and Asia can be lifted into the middle troposphere and often are transported over synoptic length scales. These events can decrease the upwelling long-wave fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, especially in the mid-infrared "window". Typically these effects have not been included in model simulations and the spectrally integrated effects of aerosols on the planetary long-wave energy budget have not employed satellite data to produce systematic global estimates. In this study we will show initial results for the quantitative determination of a global radiative forcing due to mineral dust calculated using A-train satellite instrument measurements from AIRS, TES, and MODIS. The initial results focus on localized dust outbreaks, over Australia, Africa and Asia, and describe the methods that will be implemented for the determination of a quantitative global radiative forcing estimate.

  13. Corrigendum to "Aerosol indirect effects from shipping emissions: sensitivity studies with the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM" published in Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 5985-6007, 2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peters, K.; Stier, P.; Quaas, J.; Graßl, H.

    2013-07-01

    An error in the calculation of the emitted number of primary sulfate particles for a given mass of emitted elementary sulfur has recently been identified in HAM, i.e. the aerosol module utilised in the ECHAM-HAM aerosol climate model. Correcting for this error substantially alters the estimates of top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing due to aerosol indirect effects from global shipping emissions (year 2000) as presented in Peters et al. (2012). Here, we shortly present these new results.

  14. Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation Interactions in the Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andreae, M. O.

    2015-12-01

    Aerosols serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and thus have a powerful effect on cloud properties. Increased aerosol concentrations resulting from pollution lead to higher cloud droplet concentrations, but smaller droplet sizes. This in turn affects the physical processes inside clouds that lead to the initiation of precipitation. Depending on a number of factors, including aerosol composition, atmospheric stability, and cloud water content, increasing CCN concentrations may either decrease or increase rainfall. In convective clouds, early rain formation is suppressed, which makes more water and energy available to rise higher in the atmosphere and form ice particles. This may invigorate the dynamics of convection, encourage the formation of hail and lightning, and enhance the transport of materials to the upper troposphere. In turn, cloud processing also affects the concentrations, composition, and distribution of atmospheric aerosols. In order to understand and quantify the effects of air pollution on climate, and precipitation in particular, knowledge of natural abundance and characteristics of aerosols is as essential as the observation of perturbed conditions. I will present recent advances in the conceptual understanding of aerosol-precipitation interactions, as well as results of measurements on aerosol and cloud characteristics in pristine and polluted conditions.

  15. Deliberating stratospheric aerosols for climate geoengineering and the SPICE project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pidgeon, Nick; Parkhill, Karen; Corner, Adam; Vaughan, Naomi

    2013-05-01

    Increasing concerns about the narrowing window for averting dangerous climate change have prompted calls for research into geoengineering, alongside dialogue with the public regarding this as a possible response. We report results of the first public engagement study to explore the ethics and acceptability of stratospheric aerosol technology and a proposed field trial (the Stratospheric Particle Injection for Climate Engineering (SPICE) 'pipe and balloon' test bed) of components for an aerosol deployment mechanism. Although almost all of our participants were willing to allow the field trial to proceed, very few were comfortable with using stratospheric aerosols. This Perspective also discusses how these findings were used in a responsible innovation process for the SPICE project initiated by the UK's research councils.

  16. Guidelines for the aerosol climatic effects special study: An element of the NASA climate research program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    Research to help develop better understanding of the role of aerosols in the Earth's radiative balance is summarized. Natural volcanic injections of aerosols into the stratosphere to understand and model any resultant evidence of climate change are considered. The approach involves: (1) measurements from aircraft, balloon and ground based platforms which complement and enhance the aerosol information derived from satellite data; (2) development of instruments required for some of these measurements; (3) theoretical and laboratory work to aid in interpreting and utilizing space based and in situ data; and (4) preparation for and execution of concentrated observations of stratospheric aerosols following a future large volcanic eruption.

  17. Climate forcings of past droughts in the Czech Lands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mikšovský, Jiří; Trnka, Miroslav; Brázdil, Rudolf

    2015-04-01

    Frequency and intensity of local droughts is governed by a complex interaction of diverse processes, originating from internal dynamics of the climate system as well as its responses to external forcings. Separating and quantifying the effects of individual drought-inducing agents is a nontrivial task, often approached via statistical methods. In this presentation, we employ multiple linear regression to identify components attributable to various forcing factors, both external (solar irradiance, volcanic activity, anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols) and internal (NAO, ENSO, AMO), in the monthly series of selected drought indices (PDSI, Z-index, SPI, SPEI) calculated for the territory of the recent Czech Republic during the 1883-2010 period. Moving block bootstrap is used for evaluation of the statistical significance of the results. Our analysis, carried out for drought index series characterizing a country-wide average as well as ten individual locations, suggests presence of a distinct component correlated with anthropogenic forcing (driven largely by the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases) in the temperature-sensitive drought indices (PDSI, Z-index, SPEI). There are also indications of an influence of major volcanic eruptions in some of the Czech drought series, whereas variations of solar activity do not seem to leave a significant imprint. Of the major oscillatory modes in the climate system, North Atlantic Oscillation can be linked to a relatively strong component in most of the drought characteristics. Effects of ENSO, while generally weaker and scattered, are also detectable. No significant relation to Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation phase was found.

  18. Climate forcing growth rates: doubling down on our Faustian bargain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko

    2013-03-01

    , in causing a large increase in net primary productivity of temperate and boreal forests. Sulfate aerosols from coal burning also might increase carbon uptake by increasing the proportion of diffuse insolation, as noted above for Pinatubo aerosols, even though the total solar radiation reaching the surface is reduced. Thus we see the decreased CO2 airborne fraction since 2000 as sharing some of the same causes as the decreased airborne fraction after the Pinatubo eruption (figure 3). CO2 fertilization is likely the major effect, as a plausible addition of 5 TgN yr-1 from fossil fuels and net ecosystem productivity of 200 kgC kgN-1 (Magnani et al 2007, 2008) yields an annual carbon drawdown of 1 GtC yr-1, which is of the order of what is needed to explain the post-2000 anomaly in airborne CO2. However, an aerosol-induced increase of diffuse radiation might also contribute. Although tropospheric aerosol properties are not accurately monitored, there are suggestions of an upward trend of stratospheric background aerosols since 2000 (Hofmann et al 2009, Solomon et al 2011), which could be a consequence of more tropospheric aerosols at low latitudes where injection of tropospheric air into the stratosphere occurs (Holton et al 1995). We discuss climate implications of the reduced CO2 airborne fraction after presenting data for other greenhouse gases. Atmospheric CH4 is increasing more slowly than in IPCC scenarios (figure 4), which were defined more than a decade ago (IPCC 2001). However, after remaining nearly constant for several years, CH4 has increased during the past five years, pushing slightly above the level that was envisaged in the Alternative Scenario of Hansen et al (2000). Reduction of CH4, besides slowdown in CO2 growth in the twenty first century and a decline of CO2 in the twenty second century, is a principal requirement to achieve a low climate forcing that stabilizes climate, in part because CH4 also affects tropospheric ozone and stratospheric water

  19. Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol-climate model intercomparison studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.; Ghan, S. J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, P.-L.; Rasch, P. J.; Neubauer, D.; Lohmann, U.

    2014-08-01

    Nudging as an assimilation technique has seen increased use in recent years in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity of simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on long-wave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations, and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. Results from both CAM5 and a second aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 also indicate that compared to the wind-and-temperature nudging, constraining only winds leads to better agreement with the free-running model in terms of the estimated shortwave cloud forcing and the simulated convective activities. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a

  20. Quantifying the climatological cloud-free direct radiative forcing of aerosol over the Red Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brindley, Helen; Osipov, Serega; Bantges, Richard; Smirnov, Alexander; Banks, Jamie; Levy, Robert; Prakash, P.-Jish; Stenchikov, Georgiy

    2015-04-01

    A combination of ground-based and satellite observations are used, in conjunction with column radiative transfer modelling, to assess the climatological aerosol loading and quantify its corresponding cloud-free direct radiative forcing (DRF) over the Red Sea. While there have been campaigns designed to probe aerosol-climate interactions over much of the world, relatively little attention has been paid to this region. Because of the remoteness of the area, satellite retrievals provide a crucial tool for assessing aerosol loading over the Sea. However, agreement between aerosol properties inferred from measurements from different instruments, and even in some cases from the same measurements using different retrieval algorithms can be poor, particularly in the case of mineral dust. Ground based measurements which can be used to evaluate retrievals are thus highly desirable. Here we take advantage of ship-based sun-photometer micro-tops observations gathered from a series of cruises which took place across the Red Sea during 2011 and 2013. To our knowledge these data represent the first set of detailed aerosol measurements from the Sea. They thus provide a unique opportunity to assess the performance of satellite retrieval algorithms in this region. Initially two aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval algorithms developed for the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) instruments are evaluated via comparison with the co-located cruise observations. These show excellent agreement, with correlations typically better than 0.9 and very small root-mean-square and bias differences. Calculations of radiative fluxes and DRF along one of the cruises using the observed aerosol and meteorological conditions also show good agreement with co-located estimates from the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) instrument if the aerosol asymmetry parameter is adjusted to account for the presence of large

  1. The Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment: A New Challenge to Monsoon Climate Research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2008-01-01

    Aerosol and monsoon related droughts and floods are two of the most serious environmental hazards confronting more than 60% of the population of the world living in the Asian monsoon countries. In recent years, thanks to improved satellite and in-situ observations, and better models, great strides have been made in aerosol, and monsoon research respectively. There is now a growing body of evidence suggesting that interaction of aerosol forcing with water cycle dynamics in monsoon regions may substantially alter the redistribution of energy at the earth surface and in the atmosphere, and therefore significantly impact monsoon rainfall variability and long term trends. In this talk, I will describe issues related to societal needs, scientific background, and challenges in studies of aerosol-water cycle interaction in Asian monsoon regions. As a first step towards addressing these issues, the authors call for an integrated observation and modeling research approach aimed at the interactions between aerosol chemistry and radiative effects and monsoon dynamics of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system. A Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX) is proposed for 2007-2011, with an enhanced observation period during 2008-09, encompassing diverse arrays of observations from surface, aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, and satellites of physical and chemical properties of aerosols, long range aerosol transport as well as meteorological and oceanographic parameters in the Indo-Pacific Asian monsoon region. JAMEX will leverage on coordination among many ongoing and planned national programs on aerosols and monsoon research in China, India, Japan, Nepal, Italy, US, as well as international research programs of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

  2. The contribution of China’s emissions to global climate forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Bengang; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Hauglustaine, Didier; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Chen, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Laurent Zhaoxin; Li, Yue; Liu, Hongyan; Liu, Junfeng; Peng, Shushi; Shen, Zehao; Sun, Zhenzhong; Wang, Rong; Wang, Tao; Yin, Guodong; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhou, Feng

    2016-03-01

    Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on “common but differentiated responsibilities” reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development, accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols, but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry–climate model and a chemistry and transport model to quantify China’s present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% ± 4% of the current global radiative forcing. China’s relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% ± 2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% ± 6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China’s strongest contributions are 0.16 ± 0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, ‑0.11 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 ± 0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China’s eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years: a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon.

  3. Total Volcanic Stratospheric Aerosol Optical Depths and Implications for Global Climate Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ridley, D. A.; Solomon, S.; Barnes, J. E.; Burlakov, V. D.; Deshler, T.; Dolgii, S. I.; Herber, A. B.; Nagai, T.; Neely, R. R., III; Nevzorov, A. V.; Ritter, C.; Sakai, T.; Santer, B. D.; Sato, M.; Schmidt, A.; Uchino, O.; Vernier, J. P.

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the cooling effect of recent volcanoes is of particular interest in the context of the post-2000 slowing of the rate of global warming. Satellite observations of aerosol optical depth above 15 km have demonstrated that small-magnitude volcanic eruptions substantially perturb incoming solar radiation. Here we use lidar, Aerosol Robotic Network, and balloon-borne observations to provide evidence that currently available satellite databases neglect substantial amounts of volcanic aerosol between the tropopause and 15 km at middle to high latitudes and therefore underestimate total radiative forcing resulting from the recent eruptions. Incorporating these estimates into a simple climate model, we determine the global volcanic aerosol forcing since 2000 to be 0.19 +/- 0.09W/sq m. This translates into an estimated global cooling of 0.05 to 0.12 C. We conclude that recent volcanic events are responsible for more post-2000 cooling than is implied by satellite databases that neglect volcanic aerosol effects below 15 km.

  4. Detecting climate forcing and feedback signals in surface climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davy, Richard; Esau, Igor

    2015-04-01

    The Earth has warmed in the last century and a large component of that warming has been attributed to the build-up of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. There are also numerous feedback processes which can introduce strong, regionalized asymmetries to the overall warming trend. These processes alter the surface energy budget, and thus affect the surface air temperature, which is one of the primary measures of how the climate is changing. However, the degree to which a given forcing or feedback process alters surface temperatures is contingent on the effective heat capacity of the atmosphere which is defined by the depth of the planetary boundary layer. This can vary by an order of magnitude on different temporal and spatial scales, which can lead to a strongly amplified temperature response in shallow boundary layers. Therefore, if a climate forcing or feedback is acting across a wide range of conditions of the boundary layer, then this non-linear response of the surface climate to perturbations in the forcing must be accounted for in order to correctly assess the effect of the forcing on the surface climatology.

  5. EVALUATION OF ACOUSTIC FORCES ON A PARTICLE IN AEROSOL MEDIUM

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, S; Richard Dimenna, R

    2007-09-27

    The acoustic force exerted on a solid particle was evaluated to develop a fundamental understanding of the critical physical parameters or constraints affecting particle motion and capture in a collecting device. The application of an acoustic force to the collection of a range of submicron-to-micron particles in a highly turbulent airflow stream laden with solid particles was evaluated in the presence of other assisting and competing forces. This scoping estimate was based on the primary acoustic force acting directly on particles in a dilute aerosol system, neglecting secondary interparticle effects such as agglomeration of the sub-micron particles. A simplified analysis assuming a stable acoustic equilibrium with an infinite sound speed in the solid shows that for a solid-laden air flow in the presence of a standing wave, particles will move toward the nearest node. The results also show that the turbulent drag force on a 1-{micro}m particle resulting from eddy motion is dominant when compared with the electrostatic force or the ultrasonic acoustic force. At least 180 dB acoustic pressure level at 1 MHz is required for the acoustic force to be comparable to the electrostatic or turbulent drag forces in a high-speed air stream. It is noted that particle size and pressure amplitude are dominant parameters for the acoustic force. When acoustic pressure level becomes very large, the acoustic energy will heat up the surrounding air medium, which may cause air to expand. With an acoustic power of about 600 watts applied to a 2000-lpm air flow, the air temperature can increase by as much as 15 C at the exit of the collector.

  6. The Impact of Pre-Industrial Land Use Change on Atmospheric Composition and Aerosol Radiative Forcing.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamilton, D. S.; Carslaw, K. S.; Spracklen, D. V.; Folberth, G.; Kaplan, J. O.; Pringle, K.; Scott, C.

    2015-12-01

    Anthropogenic land use change (LUC) has had a major impact on the climate by altering the amount of carbon stored in vegetation, changing surface albedo and modifying the levels of both biogenic and pyrogenic emissions. While previous studies of LUC have largely focused on the first two components, there has recently been a recognition that changes to aerosol and related pre-cursor gas emissions from LUC are equally important. Furthermore, it has also recently been recognised that the pre-industrial (PI) to present day (PD) radiative forcing (RF) of climate from aerosol cloud interactions (ACI) due to anthropogenic emissions is highly sensitive to the amount of natural aerosol that was present in the PI. This suggests that anthropogenic RF from ACI may be highly sensitive to land-use in the PI. There are currently two commonly used baseline reference years for the PI; 1750 and 1860. Rapid LUC occurred between 1750 and 1860, with large reductions in natural vegetation cover in Eastern Northern America, Europe, Central Russia, India and Eastern China as well as lower reductions in parts of Brazil and Africa. This LUC will have led to significant changes in biogenic and fire emissions with implications for natural aerosol concentrations and PI-to-PD RF. The focus of this study is therefore to quantify the impact of LUC between 1750 and 1860 on aerosol concentrations and PI-to-PD RF calculations from ACI. We use the UK Met Office HadGEM3-UKCA coupled-chemistry-climate model to calculate the impacts of anthropogenic emissions and anthropogenic LUC on aerosol size distributions in both 1750 and 1860. We prescribe LUC using the KK10 historical dataset of land cover change. Monoterpene emissions are coupled directly to the prescribed LUC through the JULES land surface scheme in HadGEM3. Fire emissions from LUC were calculated offline using the fire module LPJ-LMfire in the Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model. To separate out the impacts of LUC from

  7. Neutral and charged binary sulfate aerosol nucleation in the aerosol-climate modeling system ECHAM5-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kazil, J.; Kokkola, H.

    2007-12-01

    Aerosol particles play an important role in the Earth's atmosphere and in the climate system: Aerosols scatter and absorb solar radiation, facilitate heterogeneous and multiphase chemistry, and change cloud characteristics in many ways. Aerosol particles can be directly emitted from surface sources (primary aerosol) or form from the gas phase (secondary aerosol). Secondary aerosol formation can significantly increase concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei. Two important pathways of aerosol formation from the gas phase are neutral and charged binary nucleation of sulfuric acid and water. We have introduced laboratory data based representations of these pathways into the aerosol-climate modeling system ECHAM5-HAM, and investigate their relative importance and spatial distribution in the troposphere, and discuss ramifications for processes in the Earth's atmosphere.

  8. Infrared Aerosol Radiative Forcing at the Surface and the Top of the Atmosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Markowicz, Krzysztof M.; Flatau, Piotr J.; Vogelmann, Andrew M.; Quinn, Patricia K.; Welton, Ellsworth J.

    2003-01-01

    We study the clear-sky aerosol radiative forcing at infrared wavelengths using data from the Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia) cruise of the NOAA R/V Ronald H. Brown. Limited number of data points is analyzed mostly from ship and collocated satellite values. An optical model is derived from chemical measurements, lidar profiles, and visible extinction measurements which is used to and estimate the infrared aerosol optical thickness and the single scattering albedo. The IR model results are compared to detailed Fourier Transform Interferometer based infrared aerosol forcing estimates, pyrgeometer based infrared downward fluxes, and against the direct solar forcing observations. This combined approach attests for the self-consistency of the optical model and allows to derive quantities such as the infrared forcing at the top of the atmosphere or the infrared optical thickness. The mean infrared aerosol optical thickness at 10 microns is 0.08 and the single scattering albedo is 0.55. The modeled infrared aerosol forcing reaches 10 W/sq m during the cruise, which is a significant contribution to the total direct aerosol forcing. The surface infrared aerosol radiative forcing is between 10 to 25% of the shortwave aerosol forcing. The infrared aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere can go up to 19% of the solar aerosol forcing. We show good agreement between satellite (CERES instrument) retrievals and model results at the top of the atmosphere. Over the Sea of Japan, the average infrared radiative forcing is 4.6 W/sq m in the window region at the surface and it is 1.5 W/sq m at top of the atmosphere. The top of the atmosphere IR forcing efficiency is a strong function of aerosol temperature while the surface IR forcing efficiency varies between 37 and 55 W/sq m (per infrared optical depth unit). and changes between 10 to 18 W/sq m (per infrared optical depth unit).

  9. Coupled Aerosol-Chemistry-Climate Twentieth-Century Transient Model Investigation: Trends in Short-Lived Species and Climate Responses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koch, Dorothy; Bauer, Susanne E.; Del Genio, Anthony; Faluvegi, Greg; McConnell, Joseph R.; Menon, Surabi; Miller, Ronald L.; Rind, David; Ruedy, Reto; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Shindell, Drew

    2011-01-01

    The authors simulate transient twentieth-century climate in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM, with aerosol and ozone chemistry fully coupled to one another and to climate including a full dynamic ocean. Aerosols include sulfate, black carbon (BC), organic carbon, nitrate, sea salt, and dust. Direct and BC snow-albedo radiative effects are included. Model BC and sulfur trends agree fairly well with records from Greenland and European ice cores and with sulfur deposition in North America; however, the model underestimates the sulfur decline at the end of the century in Greenland. Global BC effects peak early in the century (1940s); afterward the BC effects decrease at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but continue to increase at lower latitudes. The largest increase in aerosol optical depth occurs in the middle of the century (1940s-80s) when sulfate forcing peaks and causes global dimming. After this, aerosols decrease in eastern North America and northern Eurasia leading to regional positive forcing changes and brightening. These surface forcing changes have the correct trend but are too weak. Over the century, the net aerosol direct effect is -0.41 Watts per square meter, the BC-albedo effect is -0.02 Watts per square meter, and the net ozone forcing is +0.24 Watts per square meter. The model polar stratospheric ozone depletion develops, beginning in the 1970s. Concurrently, the sea salt load and negative radiative flux increase over the oceans around Antarctica. Net warming over the century is modeled fairly well; however, the model fails to capture the dynamics of the observedmidcentury cooling followed by the late century warming.Over the century, 20% of Arctic warming and snow ice cover loss is attributed to the BC albedo effect. However, the decrease in this effect at the end of the century contributes to Arctic cooling. To test the climate responses to sulfate and BC pollution, two experiments were branched from 1970 that removed

  10. Impact of anthropogenic aerosols on regional climate change in Beijing, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, B.; Liou, K. N.; He, C.; Lee, W. L.; Gu, Y.; Li, Q.; Leung, L. R.

    2015-12-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols affect regional climate significantly through radiative (direct and semi-direct) and indirect effects, but the magnitude of these effects over megacities are subject to large uncertainty. In this study, we evaluated the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on regional climate change in Beijing, China using the online-coupled Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry Model (WRF/Chem) with the Fu-Liou-Gu radiation scheme and a spatial resolution of 4km. We further updated this radiation scheme with a geometric-optics surface-wave (GOS) approach for the computation of light absorption and scattering by black carbon (BC) particles in which aggregation shape and internal mixing properties are accounted for. In addition, we incorporated in WRF/Chem a 3D radiative transfer parameterization in conjunction with high-resolution digital data for city buildings and landscape to improve the simulation of boundary-layer, surface solar fluxes and associated sensible/latent heat fluxes. Preliminary simulated meteorological parameters, fine particles (PM2.5) and their chemical components agree well with observational data in terms of both magnitude and spatio-temporal variations. The effects of anthropogenic aerosols, including BC, on radiative forcing, surface temperature, wind speed, humidity, cloud water path, and precipitation are quantified on the basis of simulation results. With several preliminary sensitivity runs, we found that meteorological parameters and aerosol radiative effects simulated with the incorporation of improved BC absorption and 3-D radiation parameterizations deviate substantially from simulation results using the conventional homogeneous/core-shell configuration for BC and the plane-parallel model for radiative transfer. Understanding of the aerosol effects on regional climate change over megacities must consider the complex shape and mixing state of aerosol aggregates and 3D radiative transfer effects over city landscape.

  11. Biotic stress accelerates formation of climate-relevant aerosols in boreal forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joutsensaari, J.; Yli-Pirilä, P.; Korhonen, H.; Arola, A.; Blande, J. D.; Heijari, J.; Kivimäenpää, M.; Mikkonen, S.; Hao, L.; Miettinen, P.; Lyytikäinen-Saarenmaa, P.; Faiola, C. L.; Laaksonen, A.; Holopainen, J. K.

    2015-04-01

    , affect both aerosol direct and indirect forcing of climate at regional scales. The effect of insect outbreaks on VOC emissions and SOA formation should be considered in future climate predictions.

  12. Biotic stress accelerates formation of climate-relevant aerosols in boreal forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joutsensaari, J.; Yli-Pirilä, P.; Korhonen, H.; Arola, A.; Blande, J. D.; Heijari, J.; Kivimäenpää, M.; Mikkonen, S.; Hao, L.; Miettinen, P.; Lyytikäinen-Saarenmaa, P.; Faiola, C. L.; Laaksonen, A.; Holopainen, J. K.

    2015-11-01

    , affect both aerosol direct and indirect forcing of climate at regional scales. The effect of insect outbreaks on VOC emissions and SOA formation should be considered in future climate predictions.

  13. Can Ice-Nucleating Aerosols Affect Arctic Seasonal Climate?

    SciTech Connect

    Prenni, Anthony J.; Harrington, Jerry Y.; Tjernstrom, Michael; DeMott, Paul J.; Avramov, Alexander; Long, Charles N.; Kreidenweis, Sonia M.; Olsson, Peter Q.; Verlinde, J.

    2007-04-01

    To date, climate and regional models have generally proven unsuccessful at simulating Arctic cloudiness, particularly during the colder months. Models tend to underpredict the amount of liquid water in mixed-phase clouds, which are ubiquitous in this region. This is problematic because cloud coverage and phase can greatly impact the Arctic radiative budget. Using recent measurements of ice nucleating aerosol, we show that incorrect, or nonexistent, parameterizations of aerosol-cloud interactions are at least partially responsible for the poor model predictions. Moreover, we show that this can lead to errors in the modeled surface radiative energy budget of 10-100 W m-2.

  14. Efficient Formation of Stratospheric Aerosol for Climate Engineering by Emission of Condensible Vapor from Aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pierce, Jeffrey R.; Weisenstein, Debra K.; Heckendorn, Patricia; Peter. Thomas; Keith, David W.

    2010-01-01

    Recent analysis suggests that the effectiveness of stratospheric aerosol climate engineering through emission of non-condensable vapors such as SO2 is limited because the slow conversion to H2SO4 tends to produce aerosol particles that are too large; SO2 injection may be so inefficient that it is difficult to counteract the radiative forcing due to a CO2 doubling. Here we describe an alternate method in which aerosol is formed rapidly in the plume following injection of H2SO4, a condensable vapor, from an aircraft. This method gives better control of particle size and can produce larger radiative forcing with lower sulfur loadings than SO2 injection. Relative to SO2 injection, it may reduce some of the adverse effects of geoengineering such as radiative heating of the lower stratosphere. This method does not, however, alter the fact that such a geoengineered radiative forcing can, at best, only partially compensate for the climate changes produced by CO2.

  15. Biases in modeled surface snow BC mixing ratios in prescribed-aerosol climate model runs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doherty, S. J.; Bitz, C. M.; Flanner, M. G.

    2014-11-01

    Black carbon (BC) in snow lowers its albedo, increasing the absorption of sunlight, leading to positive radiative forcing, climate warming and earlier snowmelt. A series of recent studies have used prescribed-aerosol deposition flux fields in climate model runs to assess the forcing by black carbon in snow. In these studies, the prescribed mass deposition flux of BC to surface snow is decoupled from the mass deposition flux of snow water to the surface. Here we compare prognostic- and prescribed-aerosol runs and use a series of offline calculations to show that the prescribed-aerosol approach results, on average, in a factor of about 1.5-2.5 high bias in annual-mean surface snow BC mixing ratios in three key regions for snow albedo forcing by BC: Greenland, Eurasia and North America. These biases will propagate directly to positive biases in snow and surface albedo reduction by BC. The bias is shown be due to coupling snowfall that varies on meteorological timescales (daily or shorter) with prescribed BC mass deposition fluxes that are more temporally and spatially smooth. The result is physically non-realistic mixing ratios of BC in surface snow. We suggest that an alternative approach would be to prescribe BC mass mixing ratios in snowfall, rather than BC mass fluxes, and we show that this produces more physically realistic BC mixing ratios in snowfall and in the surface snow layer.

  16. Spatial variations in immediate greenhouse gases and aerosol emissions and resulting radiative forcing from wildfires in interior Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Shengli; Liu, Heping; Dahal, Devendra; Jin, Suming; Li, Shuang; Liu, Shuguang

    2016-02-01

    Boreal fires can cool the climate; however, this conclusion came from individual fires and may not represent the whole story. We hypothesize that the climatic impact of boreal fires depends on local landscape heterogeneity such as burn severity, prefire vegetation type, and soil properties. To test this hypothesis, spatially explicit emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols and their resulting radiative forcing are required as an important and necessary component towards a full assessment. In this study, we integrated remote sensing (Landsat and MODIS) and models (carbon consumption model, emission factors model, and radiative forcing model) to calculate the carbon consumption, GHGs and aerosol emissions, and their radiative forcing of 2001-2010 fires at 30 m resolution in the Yukon River Basin of Alaska. Total carbon consumption showed significant spatial variation, with a mean of 2,615 g C m-2 and a standard deviation of 2,589 g C m-2. The carbon consumption led to different amounts of GHGs and aerosol emissions, ranging from 593.26 Tg (CO2) to 0.16 Tg (N2O). When converted to equivalent CO2 based on global warming potential metric, the maximum 20 years equivalent CO2 was black carbon (713.77 Tg), and the lowest 20 years equivalent CO2 was organic carbon (-583.13 Tg). The resulting radiative forcing also showed significant spatial variation: CO2, CH4, and N2O can cause a 20-year mean radiative forcing of 7.41 W m-2 with a standard deviation of 2.87 W m-2. This emission forcing heterogeneity indicates that different boreal fires have different climatic impacts. When considering the spatial variation of other forcings, such as surface shortwave forcing, we may conclude that some boreal fires, especially boreal deciduous fires, can warm the climate.

  17. Observation-constrained Estimation of Aerosol Climate Impacts over S Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Y.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Jefferson, A.; Wilcox, E. M.; Bender, F.; Pistone, K.; Praveen, P. S.; Thomas, R. M.; Ramanathan, V.

    2012-12-01

    Climate impacts of elevated aerosols over S. Asia have been studied extensively. Despite different methods employed and uncertainties, one clear message is that these aerosols have a large impact on the regional energy balance. However, uncertainty in the elevated aerosol absorption, as well as poor fidelity in model representations of aerosol-cloud interactions contribute to the discrepancies in quantifying the aerosol influences on monsoon circulation and rainfall. The main goal of this study is to examine the latitudinal heating gradient and the aerosol impact on the hydrological cycle during the pre-monsoon, with observational constraints on the aerosol vertical distribution. We run a 12-km regional climate model (WRF-Chem) driven by the NCEP analysis data from August 2011 to March 2012. During this time period, the ground-based profiling of aerosol extinction, cloud liquid water, water vapor, and temperature were taken at Nainital (29.38°N, 79.45°E) as part of the Ganges Valley Experiment (GVAX). It is the first time that such vertical profiling data sets are available in the northern Indian subcontinent for such a long period. In the pre-monsoon season (Feb-Mar), the regional model simulations show good agreement in the aerosol optical depth (AOD; 0.1~0.2) and black carbon (BC; ~0.8 ug/m3) concentrations compared with the surface observations at Nainital. The observed diurnal variation in BC concentration, peaking in the afternoon and lowering at night, is also captured by the model as a result of the thermal convection from the polluted valley. The simulated OC/BC ratio is about 2~4 near the surface, which is lower than observations, implying that we may underestimate the secondary organic formation from the biomass burning or biogenic sources. Spectral measurements of aerosol absorption will be used to investigate the absorption of OC in the UV and visible bands. During this time, surface and in situ profiling of aerosols and clouds were also made during

  18. Sensitivity Study of The Sulfate Aerosol Indirect Radiative Forcing To The Dms Source Representation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boucher, O.; Aumont, O.; Belviso, S.; Cosme, E.; Moulin, C.; Pham, M.

    We use a global sulfur cycle model (LMD-ZT) to study the sensitivity of the dimethyl- sulfide (DMS) atmospheric concentrations and sulfur cycle to the representation of the DMS oceanic source. We test four different distributions of the oceanic DMS concen- trations: the Kettle et al. DMS dataset, two datasets built from Seawifs measurements of the ocean color (but with different , and one distribution from a coupled oceanic bi- ological model. There is a convergence for 3 out of 4 DMS datasets to produce a global DMS flux of 18-20 TgS/yr. There are however significant disagreements on the spa- tial and seasonal distribution of the DMS flux. A comparison of the DMS atmospheric concentrations with observations will be presented. The sulfate aerosol indirect radia- tive forcing depends strongly on the concentration of pre-industrial aerosols, which itself depends on the DMS sea-air flux. The subsequent uncertainty on the aerosol in- direct radiative forcing and the implication for climate-chemistry interactions will be discussed.

  19. On the contribution of black carbon to the composite aerosol radiative forcing over an urban environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panicker, A. S.; Pandithurai, G.; Safai, P. D.; Dipu, S.; Lee, Dong-In

    2010-08-01

    This paper discusses the extent of Black Carbon (BC) radiative forcing in the total aerosol atmospheric radiative forcing over Pune, an urban site in India. Collocated measurements of aerosol optical properties, chemical composition and BC were carried out for a period of six months (during October 2004 to May 2005) over the site. Observed aerosol chemical composition in terms of water soluble, insoluble and BC components were used in Optical Properties of Aerosols and Clouds (OPAC) to derive aerosol optical properties of composite aerosols. The BC fraction alone was used in OPAC to derive optical properties of BC aerosols. The aerosol optical properties for composite and BC aerosols were separately used in SBDART model to derive direct aerosol radiative forcing due to composite and BC aerosols. The atmospheric radiative forcing for composite aerosols were found to be +35.5, +32.9 and +47.6 Wm -2 during post-monsoon, winter and pre-monsoon seasons, respectively. The average BC mass fraction found to be 4.83, 6.33 and 4 μg m -3 during the above seasons contributing around 2.2 to 5.8% to the total aerosol load. The atmospheric radiative forcing estimated due to BC aerosols was +18.8, +23.4 and +17.2 Wm -2, respectively during the above seasons. The study suggests that even though BC contributes only 2.2-6% to the total aerosol load; it is contributing an average of around 55% to the total lower atmospheric aerosol forcing due to strong radiative absorption, and thus enhancing greenhouse warming.

  20. Geo-Engineering Climate Change with Sulfate Aerosol

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rasch, P. J.; Crutzen, P. J.

    2006-12-01

    We explore the impact of injecting a precursor of sulfate aerosols into the middle atmosphere where they would act to increase the planetary albedo and thus counter some of the effects of greenhouse gase forcing. We use an atmospheric general circulation model (CAM, the Community Atmosphere Model) coupled to a slab ocean model for this study. Only physical effects are examined, that is we ignore the biogeochemical and chemical implications of changes to greenhouse gases and aerosols, and do not explore the important ethical, legal, and moral issues that are associated with deliberate geo-engineering efforts. The simulations suggest that the sulfate aerosol produced from the SO2 source in the stratosphere is sufficient to counterbalance most of the warming associated with the greenhouse gas forcing. Surface temperatures return to within a few tenths of a degree(K) of present day levels. Sea ice and precipitation distributions are also much closer to their present day values. The polar region surface temperatures remain 1-3 degrees warm in the winter hemisphere than present day values. This study is very preliminary. Only a subset of the relevant effects have been explored. The effect of such an injection of aerosols on middle atmospheric chemistry, and the effect on cirrus clouds are obvious missing components that merit scrutiny. There are probably others that should be considered. The injection of such aerosols cannot help in ameliorating the effects of CO2 changes on ocean PH, or other effects on the biogeochemistry of the earth system.

  1. Forcing of Climate Variations by Mev-gev Particles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tinsley, Brian A.

    1990-01-01

    Changes in ionization production in the lower stratosphere by a few percent during Forbush decreases have been shown to correlate well with changes in winter tropospheric dynamics by a similar relatively small amount. Changes in ionization production by tens of percent on the decadal time scale have been shown to be correlated with changes in winter storm frequencies by tens of percent in the western North Atlantic. Changes in total solar irradiance or solar UV do not have time variations to match the tropospheric variations on the day to day time scales discussed here. Forcing related to magnetic activity is not supported. Thus solar wind/MeV-GeV particle changes appear to be the only viable forcing function for these day to day variations. If solar wind/particle forcing of a few percent amplitude can produce short term weather responses, then observed changes by tens of percent on the decadal and centennial time scale could produce climate changes on these longer time scales. The changes in circulation involved would produce regional climate changes, as observed. At present the relations between stratospheric ionization, electric fields and chemistry and aerosol and cloud microphysics are as poorly known as the relations between the latter and storm feedback processes. However, the capability for investigating these relationships now exists and has recently been most successfully used for elucidating the stratospheric chemistry and cloud microphysics associated with the Antarctic ozone hole. The economic benefits of being able to predict winter severity on an interannual basis, and the extent to which climate change related to solar variability will add to or substract from the greenhouse effect, should be more than adequate to justify support for research in this area.

  2. The Model Intercomparison Project on the Climatic Response to Volcanic Forcing (VolMIP): Experimental Design and Forcing Input Data for CMIP6

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zanchettin, Davide; Khodri, Myriam; Timmreck, Claudia; Toohey, Matthew; Schmidt, Anja; Gerber, Edwin P.; Hegerl, Gabriele; Robock, Alan; Pausata, Francesco; Ball, William T.; Bauer, Susanne E.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-01-01

    The enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer by volcanic eruptions induces a complex set of responses causing global and regional climate effects on a broad range of timescales. Uncertainties exist regarding the climatic response to strong volcanic forcing identified in coupled climate simulations that contributed to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In order to better understand the sources of these model diversities, the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP) has defined a coordinated set of idealized volcanic perturbation experiments to be carried out in alignment with the CMIP6 protocol. VolMIP provides a common stratospheric aerosol data set for each experiment to minimize differences in the applied volcanic forcing. It defines a set of initial conditions to assess how internal climate variability contributes to determining the response. VolMIP will assess to what extent volcanically forced responses of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system are robustly simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate models and identify the causes that limit robust simulated behavior, especially differences in the treatment of physical processes. This paper illustrates the design of the idealized volcanic perturbation experiments in the VolMIP protocol and describes the common aerosol forcing input data sets to be used.

  3. An overview of geoengineering of climate using stratospheric sulphate aerosols

    SciTech Connect

    Rasch, Philip J.; Tilmes, S.; Turco, Richard P.; Robock, Alan; Oman, Luke; Chen, Chih-Chieh; Stenchikov, Georgiy; Garcia, Rolando R.

    2010-01-01

    We provide an overview of geoengineering by stratospheric sulphate aerosols. The state of understanding about this topic as of early 2008 is reviewed, summarizing the past 30 years of work in the area, highlighting some very recent studies using climate models, and discussing methods used to deliver sulphur species to the stratosphere. The studies reviewed here suggest that sulphate aerosols can counteract the globally averaged temperature increase associated with increasing greenhouse gases, and reduce changes to some other components of the Earth system. There are likely to be remaining regional climate changes after geoengineering, with some regions experiencing significant changes in temperature or precipitation. The aerosols also serve as surfaces for heterogeneous chemistry resulting in increased ozone depletion. The delivery of sulphur species to the stratosphere in a way that will produce particles of the right size is shown to be a complex and potentially very difficult task. Two simple delivery scenarios are explored, but similar exercises will be needed for other suggested delivery mechanisms. While the introduction of the geoengineering source of sulphate aerosol will perturb the sulphur cycle of the stratosphere signicantly, it is a small perturbation to the total (stratosphere and troposphere) sulphur cycle. The geoengineering source would thus be a small contributor to the total global source of ‘acid rain’ that could be compensated for through improved pollution control of anthropogenic tropospheric sources. Some areas of research remain unexplored. Although ozone may be depleted, with a consequent increase to solar ultraviolet-B (UVB) energy reaching the surface and a potential impact on health and biological populations, the aerosols will also scatter and attenuate this part of the energy spectrum, and this may compensate the UVB enhancement associated with ozone depletion. The aerosol will also change the ratio of diffuse to direct energy

  4. An overview of geoengineering of climate using stratospheric sulphate aerosols.

    PubMed

    Rasch, Philip J; Tilmes, Simone; Turco, Richard P; Robock, Alan; Oman, Luke; Chen, Chih-Chieh; Stenchikov, Georgiy L; Garcia, Rolando R

    2008-11-13

    We provide an overview of geoengineering by stratospheric sulphate aerosols. The state of understanding about this topic as of early 2008 is reviewed, summarizing the past 30 years of work in the area, highlighting some very recent studies using climate models, and discussing methods used to deliver sulphur species to the stratosphere. The studies reviewed here suggest that sulphate aerosols can counteract the globally averaged temperature increase associated with increasing greenhouse gases, and reduce changes to some other components of the Earth system. There are likely to be remaining regional climate changes after geoengineering, with some regions experiencing significant changes in temperature or precipitation. The aerosols also serve as surfaces for heterogeneous chemistry resulting in increased ozone depletion. The delivery of sulphur species to the stratosphere in a way that will produce particles of the right size is shown to be a complex and potentially very difficult task. Two simple delivery scenarios are explored, but similar exercises will be needed for other suggested delivery mechanisms. While the introduction of the geoengineering source of sulphate aerosol will perturb the sulphur cycle of the stratosphere signicantly, it is a small perturbation to the total (stratosphere and troposphere) sulphur cycle. The geoengineering source would thus be a small contributor to the total global source of 'acid rain' that could be compensated for through improved pollution control of anthropogenic tropospheric sources. Some areas of research remain unexplored. Although ozone may be depleted, with a consequent increase to solar ultraviolet-B (UVB) energy reaching the surface and a potential impact on health and biological populations, the aerosols will also scatter and attenuate this part of the energy spectrum, and this may compensate the UVB enhancement associated with ozone depletion. The aerosol will also change the ratio of diffuse to direct energy

  5. Climate forcings in Goddard Institute for Space Studies SI2000 simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Nazarenko, L.; Ruedy, R.; Lacis, A.; Koch, D.; Tegen, I.; Hall, T.; Shindell, D.; Santer, B.; Stone, P.; Novakov, T.; Thomason, L.; Wang, R.; Wang, Y.; Jacob, D.; Hollandsworth, S.; Bishop, L.; Logan, J.; Thompson, A.; Stolarski, R.; Lean, J.; Willson, R.; Levitus, S.; Antonov, J.; Rayner, N.; Parker, D.; Christy, J.

    2002-09-01

    We define the radiative forcings used in climate simulations with the SI2000 version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global climate model. These include temporal variations of well-mixed greenhouse gases, stratospheric aerosols, solar irradiance, ozone, stratospheric water vapor, and tropospheric aerosols. Our illustrations focus on the period 1951-2050, but we make the full data sets available for those forcings for which we have earlier data. We illustrate the global response to these forcings for the SI2000 model with specified sea surface temperature and with a simple Q-flux ocean, thus helping to characterize the efficacy of each forcing. The model yields good agreement with observed global temperature change and heat storage in the ocean. This agreement does not yield an improved assessment of climate sensitivity or a confirmation of the net climate forcing because of possible compensations with opposite changes of these quantities. Nevertheless, the results imply that observed global temperature change during the past 50 years is primarily a response to radiative forcings. It is also inferred that the planet is now out of radiation balance by 0.5 to 1 W/m2 and that additional global warming of about 0.5°C is already ``in the pipeline.''

  6. Climate studies with a multilayer energy balance model. III - Climatic impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chou, M.-D.; Arking, A.; Peng, L.

    1984-01-01

    A multilayer energy balance model is applied in an examination of the sensitivity of climate to stratospheric aerosols induced by volcanic eruptions. Zonally and annually averaged quantities are considered, with ocean and land temperatures computed separately and the atmosphere below the 200 mb level divided into eight layers of 24 sublayers each. The aerosol is assumed to form in the 150-200 mb range. Aerosol parameters for radiative transfer calculations are reflection in the solar spectral region and absorption in the solar and IR regions. A 75 percent aqueous solution of sulfuric acid is assumed for the aerosols. The sensitivity of the hemispherically averaged surface temperature is enhanced 37 percent, with a 20 percent uncertainty, when the thermal IR radiation is excluded. The solar radiation enhances the surface temperatures to a higher degree than the thermal radiation. The maximum response to the evenly distributed aerosols is in the 60-70 deg N latitudes and propagates, weakening, to lower latitudes.

  7. Direct and semi-direct aerosol radiative effect on the Mediterranean climate variability using a coupled regional climate system model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nabat, Pierre; Somot, Samuel; Mallet, Marc; Sevault, Florence; Chiacchio, Marc; Wild, Martin

    2015-02-01

    A fully coupled regional climate system model (CNRM-RCSM4) has been used over the Mediterranean region to investigate the direct and semi-direct effects of aerosols, but also their role in the radiation-atmosphere-ocean interactions through multi-annual ensemble simulations (2003-2009) with and without aerosols and ocean-atmosphere coupling. Aerosols have been taken into account in CNRM-RCSM4 through realistic interannual monthly AOD climatologies. An evaluation of the model has been achieved, against various observations for meteorological parameters, and has shown the ability of CNRM-RCSM4 to reproduce the main patterns of the Mediterranean climate despite some biases in sea surface temperature (SST), radiation and cloud cover. The results concerning the aerosol radiative effects show a negative surface forcing on average because of the absorption and scattering of the incident radiation. The SW surface direct effect is on average -20.9 Wm-2 over the Mediterranean Sea, -14.7 Wm-2 over Europe and -19.7 Wm-2 over northern Africa. The LW surface direct effect is weaker as only dust aerosols contribute (+4.8 Wm-2 over northern Africa). This direct effect is partly counterbalanced by a positive semi-direct radiative effect over the Mediterranean Sea (+5.7 Wm-2 on average) and Europe (+5.0 Wm-2) due to changes in cloud cover and atmospheric circulation. The total aerosol effect is consequently negative at the surface and responsible for a decrease in land (on average -0.4 °C over Europe, and -0.5 °C over northern Africa) and sea surface temperature (on average -0.5 °C for the Mediterranean SST). In addition, the latent heat loss is shown to be weaker (-11.0 Wm-2) in the presence of aerosols, resulting in a decrease in specific humidity in the lower troposphere, and a reduction in cloud cover and precipitation. Simulations also indicate that dust aerosols warm the troposphere by absorbing solar radiation, and prevent radiation from reaching the surface, thus

  8. Anthropogenic contribution to cloud condensation nuclei and the first aerosol indirect climate effect modelled by GEOS-Chem/APM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, F.

    2013-05-01

    Atmospheric particles influence climate indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) that affect cloud properties (albedo, lifetime, etc.) and precipitation. The first aerosol indirect radiative forcing (FAIRF) (i.e., cloud albedo effect) constitutes the largest uncertainty among the various radiative forcings quantified by the latest IPCC assessment report (IPCC2007). In order to confidently interpret climate change over the past century and project future change, it is essential to reduce the FAIRF uncertainty. One of the large sources of the uncertainty is the poor knowledge of the number concentrations and spatial distributions of pre-industrial and present-day aerosols. All previous and recent FAIRF studies are based on global models with simplified chemistry and aerosol microphysics, which may lead to large uncertainties in predicted aerosol properties and FAIRF values. Here, we investigate the anthropogenic contribution to CCN and associated FAIRF using a state-of-the-art global chemical transport and aerosol model (GEOS-Chem/APM) that contains a number of advanced features (including size-resolved sectional particle microphysics, online comprehensive SOx-NOx-Ox-VOCs chemistry, consideration of nitrate and secondary organic aerosols, online aerosol-cloud-radiation calculation, usage of more accurate assimilated meteorology, etc.). As far as we know, this is the first time that a global model with full chemistry and size-resolved (sectional) particle microphysics is employed to study FAIRF. Key aerosol properties predicted by GEOS-Chem/APM for the present-day case have been evaluated against a large set of land-, ship-, aircraft-, and satellite- based aerosol measurements including total particle number concentrations, CCN concentrations, AODs, and vertical profiles of extinction coefficients. The GEOS-Chem/APM model, with its advanced features and ability to reproduce observed aerosol properties (including CCN) around the globe, is expected to

  9. Aerosols versus Greenhouse Gas Climate Effects: Impacts on Temperature and Precipitation Changes and Implications for Decision-making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramaswamy, V.; Horowitz, L. W.; Ming, Y.; Schwarzkopf, M. D.; Levy, H.

    2011-12-01

    Over the 20th Century, it is understood that anthropogenic emissions of aerosols have partially offset the influence of the greenhouse gas emissions on the global-mean and continental surface temperatures, consistent with the difference in their respective radiative forcings. The effect of aerosols versus greenhouse gases on precipitation and hydrologic cycle, however, is not so straightforward. Using a set of NOAA/ GFDL global climate model simulations, the impacts due to anthropogenic aerosol emissions are characterized and compared with those due to greenhouse gas emissions. This is performed for the global and continental spatial scales. The degree of aerosol offset of the greenhouse gas effects in terms of evaporation at the surface and precipitation can be greater than that occurring in the case of surface temperature, with some regions experiencing an impact that is more governed by aerosols than by the greenhouse gas emissions. These results have significant implications for decision-making concerning future emissions and mitigation/ adaptation to climate change. The removal of aerosols from the atmosphere in the near future to obtain improvements in air quality would exacerbate the warming due to greenhouse gases arising over a large part of the globe. However, the corresponding impacts due to aerosol reductions on the global evaporation and precipitation in the 21st Century, including changes in regional phenomena such as the Asian precipitation, are less clear but are important to understand. Compounding the problem is the set of uncertainties arising from lack of or incomplete knowledge of the various species of aerosols (e.g., scattering and absorbing aerosols; sulfate, soot, dust), interactions of aerosols with clouds, and the nature of the emissions scenario. An accompanying challenge is to accurately characterize and communicate this exceptional issue in climate change science to the diverse group of stakeholders, sectors and decision-makers, who

  10. Intensification of North American Megadroughts through Surface and Dust Aerosol Forcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Seager, Richard; Miller, Ron L.; Mason, Joseph A

    2013-01-01

    Tree-ring-based reconstructions of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) indicate that, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the central plains of North America experienced recurrent periods of drought spanning decades or longer. These megadroughts had exceptional persistence compared to more recent events, but the causes remain uncertain. The authors conducted a suite of general circulation model experiments to test the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) and land surface forcing on the MCA megadroughts over the central plains. The land surface forcing is represented as a set of dune mobilization boundary conditions, derived from available geomorphological evidence and modeled as increased bare soil area and a dust aerosol source (32deg-44degN, 105deg-95degW). In the experiments, cold tropical Pacific SST forcing suppresses precipitation over the central plains but cannot reproduce the overall drying or persistence seen in the PDSI reconstruction. Droughts in the scenario with dust aerosols, however, are amplified and have significantly longer persistence than in other model experiments, more closely matching the reconstructed PDSI. This additional drying occurs because the dust increases the shortwave planetary albedo, reducing energy inputs to the surface and boundary layer. The energy deficit increases atmospheric stability, inhibiting convection and reducing cloud cover and precipitation over the central plains. Results from this study provide the first model-based evidence that dust aerosol forcing and land surface changes could have contributed to the intensity and persistence of the central plains megadroughts, although uncertainties remain in the formulation of the boundary conditions and the future importance of these feedbacks.

  11. Decadal scale, seasonal climate effects of aerosols in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Folini, Doris; Wild, Martin

    2014-05-01

    China is a hot spot in terms of population growth and industrialization. This development is accompanied by a substantial increase in aerosol emissions. We investigate associated impacts of different aerosol emissions on surface solar radiation (SSR), surface air temperature (SAT), and precipitation by means of the global atmosphere only climate model ECHAM5-HAM (aerosol emission data from NIES, the National Institute of Environmental Studies, Japan; prescribed, observation based sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the Hadley Center). Ensembles of transient (1870 - 2005) sensitivity experiments are performed and analyzed on a seasonal basis. We discuss corresponding findings, among them that inclusion of aerosol emissions leads to a decrease of modeled SSR of around -7 W/m2 in eastern parts of China in recent decades, in good agreement with in situ observations of SSR changes. The associated cooling leads to better agreement between modeled and measures SAT time series, especially in summer. By contrast, the precipitation reduction brought about by aerosols in the model is rather strong compared to observations.

  12. BAECC Biogenic Aerosols - Effects on Clouds and Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Petäjä, Tuukka; Moisseev, Dmitri; Sinclair, Victoria; O'Connor, Ewan J.; Manninen, Antti J.; Levula, Janne; Väänänen, Riikka; Heikkinen, Liine; Äijälä, Mikko; Aalto, Juho; Bäck, Jaana

    2015-11-01

    “Biogenic Aerosols - Effects on Clouds and Climate (BAECC)”, featured the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program’s 2nd Mobile Facility (AMF2) in Hyytiälä, Finland. It operated for an 8-month intensive measurement campaign from February to September 2014. The main research goal was to understand the role of biogenic aerosols in cloud formation. One of the reasons to perform BAECC study in Hyytiälä was the fact that it hosts SMEAR-II (Station for Measuring Forest Ecosystem-Atmosphere Relations), which is one of the world’s most comprehensive surface in-situ observation sites in a boreal forest environment. The station has been measuring atmospheric aerosols, biogenic emissions and an extensive suite of parameters relevant to atmosphere-biosphere interactions continuously since 1996. The BAECC enables combining vertical profiles from AMF2 with surface-based in-situ SMEAR-II observations and allows the processes at the surface to be directly related to processes occurring throughout the entire tropospheric column. With the inclusion of extensive surface precipitation measurements, and intensive observation periods involving aircraft flights and novel radiosonde launches, the complementary observations of AMF2 and SMEAR-II provide a unique opportunity for investigating aerosol-cloud interactions, and cloud-to-precipitation processes. The BAECC dataset will initiate new opportunities for evaluating and improving models of aerosol sources and transport, cloud microphysical processes, and boundary-layer structures.

  13. Climate impact of biofuels in shipping: global model studies of the aerosol indirect effect.

    PubMed

    Righi, Mattia; Klinger, Carolin; Eyring, Veronika; Hendricks, Johannes; Lauer, Axel; Petzold, Andreas

    2011-04-15

    Aerosol emissions from international shipping are recognized to have a large impact on the Earth's radiation budget, directly by scattering and absorbing solar radiation and indirectly by altering cloud properties. New regulations have recently been approved by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) aiming at progressive reductions of the maximum sulfur content allowed in marine fuels from current 4.5% by mass down to 0.5% in 2020, with more restrictive limits already applied in some coastal regions. In this context, we use a global bottom-up algorithm to calculate geographically resolved emission inventories of gaseous (NO(x), CO, SO(2)) and aerosol (black carbon, organic matter, sulfate) species for different kinds of low-sulfur fuels in shipping. We apply these inventories to study the resulting changes in radiative forcing, attributed to particles from shipping, with the global aerosol-climate model EMAC-MADE. The emission factors for the different fuels are based on measurements at a test bed of a large diesel engine. We consider both fossil fuel (marine gas oil) and biofuels (palm and soy bean oil) as a substitute for heavy fuel oil in the current (2006) fleet and compare their climate impact to that resulting from heavy fuel oil use. Our simulations suggest that ship-induced surface level concentrations of sulfate aerosol are strongly reduced, up to about 40-60% in the high-traffic regions. This clearly has positive consequences for pollution reduction in the vicinity of major harbors. Additionally, such reductions in the aerosol loading lead to a decrease of a factor of 3-4 in the indirect global aerosol effect induced by emissions from international shipping. PMID:21428387

  14. Multi-site characterization of tropical aerosols: Implications for regional radiative forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sumit, Kumar; Devara, P. C. S.; Manoj, M. G.

    2012-03-01

    A land campaign, as a part of the Indian Space Research Organization-Geosphere Biosphere Program (ISRO-GBP), has been organized using a suit of instruments like AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) Sun/Sky sunphotometer, Microtops-II (MICROprocessor-controlled Total Ozone Portable Spectrometer), short-wave pyranometer from December 1, 2006 to April 30, 2007, over five locations (Ahmedabad, Pune, Sinhgad, Trivandrum and Gadanki) representing different environments. The dominance of different aerosol types such as biomass burning, urban/industrial pollution, marine origin and desert-dust particles is expected at these five sites. In all locations, significant day-to-day variability in AOD and Ångström exponent is observed. The Ångström exponent exhibits its lowest values over semi-arid region (Ahmedabad) 0.4-0.7, while it is around 1.8 at rural site (Gadanki). The retrieved volume size distributions for Pune, Ahmedabad and Trivandrum are found to be bimodal with varying concentration of each mode. Interesting feature of this observation is, very low coarse-mode volume concentration observed at Trivandrum even though observations were made about 300 m from the coast. The synergy of results from these complementary measurements is reflected in the computed regional aerosol radiative forcing and heating rates. We have used a radiative transfer model (SBDART) to examine the variations of aerosol direct radiative effect (ADRE) and heating rates to give an overall estimation of the effect on climate. The ADRE, over different measurement sites, at short wavelength is found to be negative at the surface in the range of - 18 to - 59 W m - 2 , and TOA forcing values varied from + 0.9 to - 8 W m - 2 .

  15. CHASER: An Innovative Satellite Mission Concept to Measure the Effects of Aerosols on Clouds and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Renno, N.; Williams, E.; Rosenfeld, D.; Fischer, D.; Fischer, J.; Kremic, T.; Agrawal, A.; Andreae, M.; Bierbaum, R.; Blakeslee, R.; Boerner, A.; Bowles, N.; Christian, H.; Dunion, J.; Horvath, A.; Huang, X.; Khain, A.; Kinne, S.; Lemos, M.-C.; Penner, J.

    2012-04-01

    The formation of cloud droplets on aerosol particles, technically known as the activation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), is the fundamental process driving the interactions of aerosols with clouds and precipitation. Knowledge of these interactions is foundational to our understanding of weather and climate. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Decadal Survey (NRC 2007) indicate that the uncertainty in how clouds adjust to aerosol perturbations dominates the uncertainty in the overall quantification of the radiative forcing attributable to human activities. The Clouds, Hazards, and Aerosols Survey for Earth Researchers (CHASER) mission concept responds to the IPCC and Decadal Survey concerns by studying the activation of CCN and their interactions with clouds and storms. CHASER proposes to revolutionize our understanding of the interactions of aerosols with clouds by making the first global measurements of the fundamental physical entity linking them: activated cloud condensation nuclei. The CHASER mission was conceptualized to measure all quantities necessary for determining the interactions of aerosols with clouds and storms. Measurements by current satellites allow the determination of crude profiles of cloud particle size but not of the activated CCN that seed them. CHASER uses a new technique (Freud et al. 2011; Rosenfeld et al. 2012) and high-heritage instruments to produce the first global maps of activated CCN and the properties of the clouds associated with them. CHASER measures the CCN concentration and cloud thermodynamic forcing simultaneously, allowing their effects to be distinguished. Changes in the behavior of a group of weather systems in which only one of the quantities varies (a partial derivative of the intensity with the desirable quantity) allow the determination of each effect statistically. The high uncertainties of current climate predictions limit their much-needed use in decision-making. CHASER mitigates this

  16. Estimated PDFs of climate system properties including natural and anthropogenic forcings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forest, Chris E.; Stone, Peter H.; Sokolov, Andrei P.

    2006-01-01

    We present revised probability density functions (PDF) for climate system properties (climate sensitivity, rate of deep-ocean heat uptake, and the net aerosol forcing strength) that include the effect on 20th century temperature changes of natural as well as anthropogenic forcings. The additional natural forcings, primarily the cooling by volcanic eruptions, affect the PDF by requiring a higher climate sensitivity and a lower rate of deep-ocean heat uptake to reproduce the observed temperature changes. The estimated 90% range of climate sensitivity is 2.1 to 8.9 K. The net aerosol forcing strength for the 1980s shifted toward positive values to compensate for the volcanic forcing with 90% bounds of -0.74 to -0.14 W/m2. The rate of deep-ocean heat uptake is reduced with the effective diffusivity, Kv, ranging from 0.05 to 4.1 cm2/s. This upper bound implies that many AOGCMs mix heat into the deep ocean (below the mixed layer) too efficiently.

  17. Interannual to decadal climate variability of sea salt aerosols in the coupled climate model CESM1.0

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Li; Pierce, David W.; Russell, Lynn M.; Miller, Arthur J.; Somerville, Richard C. J.; Twohy, Cynthia H.; Ghan, Steven J.; Singh, Balwinder; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Rasch, Philip J.

    2015-02-01

    This study examines multiyear climate variability associated with sea salt aerosols and their contribution to the variability of shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF) using a 150 year simulation for preindustrial conditions of the Community Earth System Model version 1.0. The results suggest that changes in sea salt and related cloud and radiative properties on interannual timescales are dominated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle. Sea salt variability on longer (interdecadal) timescales is associated with low-frequency variability in the Pacific Ocean similar to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation but does not show a statistically significant spectral peak. A multivariate regression suggests that sea salt aerosol variability may contribute to SWCF variability in the tropical Pacific, explaining up to 20-30% of the variance in that region. Elsewhere, there is only a small sea salt aerosol influence on SWCF through modifying cloud droplet number and liquid water path that contributes to the change of cloud effective radius and cloud optical depth (and hence cloud albedo), producing a multiyear aerosol-cloud-wind interaction.

  18. An analysis of lift forces on aerosols in a wall bounded turbulent shear flow

    SciTech Connect

    Cherukat, P.; McLaughlin, J.B.

    1992-12-31

    This paper describes work that will lead to a better understanding of the role of lift forces in the deposition of aerosols on the walls bounding a turbulent shear flow. After providing some background information about aerosol trajectories that has been obtained from computer simulations, new results for the lift force in the relevant parameter ranges are presented.

  19. An analysis of lift forces on aerosols in a wall bounded turbulent shear flow

    SciTech Connect

    Cherukat, P.; McLaughlin, J.B.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes work that will lead to a better understanding of the role of lift forces in the deposition of aerosols on the walls bounding a turbulent shear flow. After providing some background information about aerosol trajectories that has been obtained from computer simulations, new results for the lift force in the relevant parameter ranges are presented.

  20. Global aerosol formation and revised radiative forcing based on CERN CLOUD data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gordon, H.; Carslaw, K. S.; Sengupta, K.; Dunne, E. M.; Kirkby, J.

    2015-12-01

    New particle formation in the atmosphere accounts for 40-70% of global cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). It is a complex process involving many precursors: sulphuric acid, ions, ammonia, and a wide range of natural and anthropogenic organic molecules. The CLOUD laboratory chamber experiment at CERN allows the contributions of different compounds to be disentangled in a uniquely well-controlled environment. To date, CLOUD has measured over 500 formation rates (Riccobono 2014, Kirkby 2015, Dunne 2015), under conditions representative of the planetary boundary layer and free troposphere. To understand the sensitivity of the climate to anthropogenic atmospheric aerosols, we must quantify historical aerosol radiative forcing. This requires an understanding of pre-industrial aerosol sources. Here we show pre-industrial nucleation over land usually involves organic molecules in the very first steps of cluster formation. The complexity of the organic vapors is a major challenge for theoretical approaches. Furthermore, with fewer sulphuric acid and ammonia molecules available to stabilize nucleating clusters in the pre-industrial atmosphere, ions from radon or galactic cosmic rays were probably more important than they are today. Parameterizations of particle formation rates determined in CLOUD as a function of precursor concentrations, temperature and ions are being used to refine the GLOMAP aerosol model (Spracklen 2005). The model simulates the growth, transport and loss of particles, translating nucleation rates to CCN concentrations. This allows us to better understand the effects of pre-industrial and present-day particle formation. I will present new results on global CCN based on CLOUD data, including estimates of anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing, currently the most uncertain driver of climate change (IPCC 2013). References: Riccobono, F. et al, Science 344 717 (2014); Kirkby, J. et al, in review; Dunne, E. et al, in preparation; Spracklen, D. et al, Atmos

  1. Climate Response of Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Black Carbon

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chung, Serena H.; Seinfeld,John H.

    2008-01-01

    The equilibrium climate effect of direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic black carbon (BC) is examined by 100-year simulations in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model II-prime coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model. Anthropogenic BC is predicted to raise globally and annually averaged equilibrium surface air temperature by 0.20 K if BC is assumed to be externally mixed. The predicted increase is significantly greater in the Northern Hemisphere (0.29 K) than in the Southern Hemisphere (0.11 K). If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with the present day level of sulfate aerosol, the predicted annual mean surface temperature increase rises to 0.37 K globally, 0.54 K for the Northern Hemisphere, and 0.20 K for the Southern Hemisphere. The climate sensitivity of BC direct radiative forcing is calculated to be 0.6 K W (sup -1) square meters, which is about 70% of that of CO2, independent of the assumption of BC mixing state. The largest surface temperature response occurs over the northern high latitudes during winter and early spring. In the tropics and midlatitudes, the largest temperature increase is predicted to occur in the upper troposphere. Direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic BC is also predicted to lead to a change of precipitation patterns in the tropics; precipitation is predicted to increase between 0 and 20 N and decrease between 0 and 20 S, shifting the intertropical convergence zone northward. If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with sulfate instead of externally mixed, the change in precipitation pattern is enhanced. The change in precipitation pattern is not predicted to alter the global burden of BC significantly because the change occurs predominantly in regions removed from BC sources.

  2. Organic aerosols

    SciTech Connect

    Penner, J.E.

    1994-01-01

    Organic aerosols scatter solar radiation. They may also either enhance or decrease concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei. This paper summarizes observed concentrations of aerosols in remote continental and marine locations and provides estimates for the sources of organic aerosol matter. The anthropogenic sources of organic aerosols may be as large as the anthropogenic sources of sulfate aerosols, implying a similar magnitude of direct forcing of climate. The source estimates are highly uncertain and subject to revision in the future. A slow secondary source of organic aerosols of unknown origin may contribute to the observed oceanic concentrations. The role of organic aerosols acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) is described and it is concluded that they may either enhance or decrease the ability of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols to act as CCN.

  3. Longwave Radiative Forcing of Saharan Dust Aerosols Estimated from MODIS, MISR and CERES Observations on Terra

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhang, Jiang-Long; Christopher, Sundar A.

    2003-01-01

    Using observations from the Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments onboard the Terra satellite; we present a new technique for studying longwave (LW) radiative forcing of dust aerosols over the Saharan desert for cloud-free conditions. The monthly-mean LW forcing for September 2000 is 7 W/sq m and the LW forcing efficiency' (LW(sub eff)) is 15 W/sq m. Using radiative transfer calculations, we also show that the vertical distribution of aerosols and water vapor are critical to the understanding of dust aerosol forcing. Using well calibrated, spatially and temporally collocated data sets, we have combined the strengths of three sensors from the same satellite to quantify the LW radiative forcing, and show that dust aerosols have a "warming" effect over the Saharan desert that will counteract the shortwave "cooling effect" of aerosols.

  4. Simultaneous Measurements of direct, semi-direct and indirect aerosol forcing with Stacked Autonomous UAVs: A New Observing Platform

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramanathan, V.; Roberts, G.; Ramana, M. V.; Corrigan, C.; Nguyen, H.

    2006-12-01

    We report here first time demonstration with three autonomously flying Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) of cloudy sky albedo, transmission atmospheric solar absorption, aerosol and cloud droplet concentrations and number densities. From these direct measurements we derive the direct, semi-direct and the first indirect aerosol forcing. The observing system consisted of 3 light weight UAVs, instrumented with miniaturized instruments (Roberts et al, 2006; Ramana et al, 2006; Corrigan et al 2006) for measuring aerosol concentrations and size distribution, cloud microphysical properties, black carbon concentration and broad band and narrow band solar fluxes. The airborne measurements were validated and augmented by the Atmospheric Brown Clouds Maldives Climate Observatory (ABC_MCO) in the island of Hanimaadhoo in the N. Indian Ocean (Corrigan et al, 2006; Ramana and Ramanathan 2006). The campaign was conducted during March and early April of 2006 when this region is subject to long range transport of pollution from S. Asia. In the stacked 3_UAV configuration, one flew in the boundary layer below clouds to characterize the aerosols feeding the clouds and the transmission of solar radiation by the absorbing aerosol layer and clouds above; the second inside the trade cumulus clouds to directly observe the fully nucleated cloud drop size and concentrations and total liquid water content; and the third above the cloud to determine the incoming solar and the reflected solar radiation. The 3-UAVs were programmed to sample the same region(or clouds) within seconds of each other, thus providing unique insights into how aerosols and boundary layer dynamics modulate the cloud microphysics and thus the albedo and solar absorption of cloudy skies in the planet. The period of observations also included a major dust-soot event which revealed a large increase in atmospheric solar absorption. We will present results on how 3- dimensional clouds with absorbing aerosols modulate

  5. Global Observations of Aerosols and Clouds from Combined Lidar and Passive Instruments to Improve Radiation Budget and Climate Studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Winker, David M.

    1999-01-01

    Current uncertainties in the effects of clouds and aerosols on the Earth radiation budget limit our understanding of the climate system and the potential for global climate change. Pathfinder Instruments for Cloud and Aerosol Spaceborne Observations - Climatologie Etendue des Nuages et des Aerosols (PICASSO-CENA) is a recently approved satellite mission within NASA's Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP) program which will address these uncertainties with a unique suite of active and passive instruments. The Lidar In-space Technology Experiment (LITE) demonstrated the potential benefits of space lidar for studies of clouds and aerosols. PICASSO-CENA builds on this experience with a payload consisting of a two-wavelength polarization-sensitive lidar, an oxygen A-band spectrometer (ABS), an imaging infrared radiometer (IIR), and a wide field camera (WFC). Data from these instruments will be used to measure the vertical distributions of aerosols and clouds in the atmosphere, as well as optical and physical properties of aerosols and clouds which influence the Earth radiation budget. PICASSO-CENA will be flown in formation with the PM satellite of the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) to provide a comprehensive suite of coincident measurements of atmospheric state, aerosol and cloud optical properties, and radiative fluxes. The mission will address critical uncertainties iin the direct radiative forcing of aerosols and clouds as well as aerosol influences on cloud radiative properties and cloud-climate radiation feedbacks. PICASSO-CENA is planned for a three year mission, with a launch in early 2003. PICASSO-CENA is being developed within the framework of a collaboration between NASA and CNES.

  6. Evidence of Aerosol's Influence on Climate from Beijing Olympics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, S.; Fu, Q.; Huang, J.; Ge, J.; Su, J.

    2009-12-01

    Air pollution is a difficult problem during the process of industrialization in most developing countries. In China, the main air pollutants are inhaled aerosol particles. Because of the extremely high loading and rapid development, Beijing became a heavily polluted city, with a population of more than 16 million. The 2008 Olympic Summer Games provided a unique opportunity for the study of climate effects of aerosols due to many measurements taken to fight pollution caused by industrialization and economic growth.Surface temperature is the most intuitive meteorological factor and easy to get. Therefore, aerosol’s radiative effects on regional climate can be known by studying the relationship between aerosols and surface temperature in Beijing city in August 2008. However, many factors can affect the surface temperature and cloud is considered as a very important meteorological element in radiation balance. In order to remove the impact of clouds on surface temperature, here the ground temperature in clear sky days (when cloud cover is less than 2) are selected. Aerosol data from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua shows that aerosol concentration decreased significantly in the area of Olympic venues in August 2008. Meanwhile, the ground-based observation data shows the surface temperature during the day (14LT) and night (02LT) in August 2008 is higher and lower than the mean temperature in August from 2002 to 2008, respectively. It is discovered that the distribution of satellite-retrieved aerosol optical Depth (AOD) in the whole area of Beijing in August of 2003 and 2004 is similar to that in 2008. We chosen four meteorological stations to analyze surface temperature and found that the diurnal changes of surface temperature are consistent with that in August of 2003, 2004 and 2008. Meanwhile, the decrease of AOD in the area of Olympic venues in August 2008 leads to the increase of precipitation

  7. Understanding the Rapid Precipitation Response to CO2 and Aerosol Forcing on a Regional Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richardson, Thomas; Forster, Piers; Parker, Doug; Andrews, Tim

    2015-04-01

    Regional precipitation change is one of the most uncertain aspects of climate change prediction, and can have major societal implications. On a global scale, precipitation is tightly constrained by the radiative cooling of the troposphere. As a result, precipitation exhibits a significant rapid adjustment in response to certain forcing agents, which is important for understanding long term climate change. However, the mechanisms which drive the spatial pattern of rapid adjustment are not well understood. In this study we analyze the spatial pattern of rapid precipitation change using simulations with fixed sea surface temperature. Using data obtained from sixteen models participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we investigate the response to three different forcing scenarios; an abrupt quadrupling of CO2, an increase in all aerosols, and an increase in sulphate aerosol from pre-industrial to present day levels. Analysis of the local atmospheric energy budget is used to understand the observed changes. We find that the spatial pattern of rapid precipitation adjustment due to forcing is primarily driven by the rapid land surface response. As a result, the spatial pattern due to quadrupling CO2 opposes that due to increased sulphate and increased all aerosols. Increasing CO2 levels causes warming of the land surface, due to enhanced downwelling longwave radiation. This destabilizes the atmosphere by warming the lower troposphere, producing an overall shift of convection and precipitation to over land. The reverse is observed for increased sulphate and increased all aerosols. Changes in tropospheric cooling are important in determining the magnitude of regional precipitation change, thereby satisfying global energy budget constraints. We find the spatial pattern of rapid precipitation change due to quadrupling CO2 levels is robust between models. The most significant precipitation changes occur in the tropics, with significant

  8. Radiative forcing of organic aerosol in the atmosphere and on snow: incorporation of SOA and brown carbon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, G.; Flanner, M.; Penner, J. E.

    2013-12-01

    Organic aerosols (OA) play an important role in climate change through their radiative forcing. Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) contributes a large portion of total organic aerosol, especially in remote regions. Organic aerosol has been shown to be an important source of solar-light absorption. However, very few global model calculations of the radiative forcing due to organic aerosol include SOA or the light-absorbing part of OA (brown carbon). Here, we use a global chemical transport model with a detailed SOA formation mechanism to investigate the change in SOA between present day and pre-industrial conditions. We employ a radiative transfer model to assess the radiative forcing associated with the change in SOA. We also reassess the radiative forcing of total OA by considering previously neglected brown carbon. In addition to the OA in the atmosphere, we examine for the first time the radiative forcing of OA deposited in snow and sea-ice by using the NCAR Community Land Model 4 (CLM4) for the land snow simulation and the Community Ice CodE 4 (CICE) for the sea-ice simulation. Anthropogenic emissions of NOx, CO, sulfate, biomass burning and fossil fuel organic aerosol are shown to influence the formation rate of SOA substantially, causing it to increase by 35 Tg/yr (41%) since pre-industrial times. The increase of SOA results in a direct forcing ranging from -0.12 to -0.34 Wm-2 and a first indirect forcing in warm phase clouds ranging from -0.24 to -0.32 Wm-2, with the range due to different assumed size distributions for SOA and different refractive indices. The global burden of primary organic aerosol (POA) is estimated to increase by 0.53 Tg since pre-industrial times. Based on different refractive indices assumed for brown carbon, the increase of POA leads to a direct forcing varying from -0.07 to -0.12 Wm-2. The change in total OA exerts a direct radiative forcing ranging from -0.17 to -0.46 Wm-2. Atmospheric absorption from brown carbon ranges from +0.13 to

  9. Seasonal differences in aerosol abundance and radiative forcing in months of contrasting emissions and rainfall over northern South Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sadavarte, P.; Venkataraman, C.; Cherian, R.; Patil, N.; Madhavan, B. L.; Gupta, T.; Kulkarni, S.; Carmichael, G. R.; Adhikary, B.

    2016-01-01

    A modeling framework was used to examine gaps in understanding of seasonal and spatial heterogeneity in aerosol abundance and radiative forcing over northern South Asia, whose glimpses are revealed in observational studies. Regionally representative emissions were used in chemical transport model simulations at a spatial resolution of 60 × 60 km2, in April, July and September, chosen as months of contrasting emissions and rainfall. Modeled aerosol abundance in northern South Asia was predominantly found to be dust and carbonaceous in April, dust and sulfate in July and sulfate and carbonaceous in September. Anthropogenic aerosols arose from energy-use emissions (from industrial sources, residential biofuel cooking, brick kilns) in all months, additionally from field burning in April, and incursion from East Asia in September. In April, carbonaceous aerosols were abundant from open burning of agricultural fields even at high altitude locations (Godavari), and of forests in the eastern Gangetic Plain (Kolkata). Direct radiative forcing and heating rate, calculated from OPAC-SBDART, using modeled aerosol fields, and corrected by MODIS AOD observations, showed regionally uniform atmospheric forcing in April, compared to that in other months, influenced by both dust and black carbon abundance. A strong spatial heterogeneity of radiative forcing and heating rate was found, with factor of 2.5-3.5 lower atmospheric forcing over the Tibet plateau than that over the Ganga Plain and Northwest in July and September. However, even over the remote Tibet plateau, there was significant anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric forcing and heating rate (45% in Apr, 75% in Sep). Wind fields showed black carbon transport from south Asia in April and east Asia in September. Further evaluation of the transport of dust and anthropogenic emissions from various source regions and their deposition in the Himalaya and Tibet, is important in understanding regional air quality and climate

  10. Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing and Forcing Efficiencies at Surface from the shortwave Irradiance Measurements in Abu Dhabi, UAE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beegum S, N.; Ben Romdhane, H.; Ghedira, H.

    2013-12-01

    Atmospheric aerosols are known to affect the radiation balance of the Earth-Atmospheric system directly by scattering and absorbing the solar and terrestrial radiation, and indirectly by affecting the lifetime and albedo of the clouds. Continuous and simultaneous measurements of short wave global irradiance in combination with synchronous spectral aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements (from 340 nm to 1640 nm in 8 channels), for a period of 1 year from June 2012 to May 2013, were used for the determination of the surface direct aerosol radiative forcing and forcing efficiencies under cloud free conditions in Abu Dhabi (24.42°N, 54.61o E, 7m MSL), a coastal location in United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the Arabian Peninsula. The Rotating Shadow band Pyranometer (RSP, LI-COR) was used for the irradiance measurements (in the spectral region 400-1100 nm), whereas the AOD measurements were carried out using CIMEL Sunphotometer (CE 318-2, under AERONET program). The differential method, which is neither sensitive to calibration uncertainties nor model assumptions, has been employed for estimating forcing efficiencies from the changes in the measured fluxes. The forcing efficiency, which quantifies the net change in irradiance per unit change in AOD, is an appropriate parameter for the characterization of the aerosol radiative effects even if the microphysical and optical properties of the aerosols are not completely understood. The corresponding forcing values were estimated from the forcing efficiencies. The estimated radiative forcing and forcing efficiencies exhibited strong monthly variations. The forcing efficiencies (absolute magnitudes) were highest during March, and showed continuous decrease thereafter to reach the lowest value during September. In contrast, the forcing followed a slightly different pattern of variability, with the highest solar dimming during April ( -60 W m-2) and the minimum during February ( -20 W m-2). The results indicate that the aerosol

  11. Sensitivity of nocturnal boundary layer temperature to tropospheric aerosol surface radiative forcing under clear-sky conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nair, Udaysankar S.; McNider, Richard; Patadia, Falguni; Christopher, Sundar A.; Fuller, Kirk

    2011-01-01

    Since the middle of the last century, global surface air temperature exhibits an increasing trend, with nocturnal temperatures increasing at a much higher rate. Proposed causative mechanisms include the radiative impact of atmospheric aerosols on the nocturnal boundary layer (NBL) where the temperature response is amplified due to shallow depth and its sensitivity to potential destabilization. A 1-D version of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System is used to examine the sensitivity of the nocturnal boundary layer temperature to the surface longwave radiative forcing (SLWRF) from urban aerosol loading and doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. The analysis is conducted for typical midlatitude nocturnal boundary layer case days from the CASES-99 field experiment and is further extended to urban sites in Pune and New Delhi, India. For the cases studied, locally, the nocturnal SLWRF from urban atmospheric aerosols (2.7-47 W m-2) is comparable or exceeds that caused by doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide (3 W m-2), with the surface temperature response ranging from a compensation for daytime cooling to an increase in the nocturnal minimum temperature. The sensitivity of the NBL to radiative forcing is approximately 4 times higher compared to the daytime boundary layer. Nighttime warming or cooling may occur depending on the nature of diurnal variations in aerosol optical depth. Soil moisture also modulates the magnitude of SLWRF, decreasing from 3 to 1 W m-2 when soil saturation increases from 37% to 70%. These results show the importance of aerosols on the radiative balance of the climate system.

  12. Extensive closed cell marine stratocumulus downwind of Europe—A large aerosol cloud mediated radiative effect or forcing?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goren, Tom; Rosenfeld, Daniel

    2015-06-01

    Marine stratocumulus clouds (MSC) cover large areas over the oceans and possess super sensitivity of their cloud radiative effect to changes in aerosol concentrations. Aerosols can cause transitions between regimes of fully cloudy closed cells and open cells. The possible role of aerosols in cloud cover has a big impact on the amount of reflected solar radiation from the clouds, thus potentially constitutes very large aerosol indirect radiative effect, which can exceed 100 Wm-2. It is hypothesized that continentally polluted clouds remain in closed cells regime for longer time from leaving continent and hence for longer distance away from land, thus occupying larger ocean areas with full cloud cover. Attributing this to anthropogenic aerosols would imply a very large negative radiative forcing with a significant climate impact. This possibility is confirmed by analyzing a detailed case study based on geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite observations of the microphysical and dynamical evolution of MSC. We show that large area of closed cells was formed over the northeast Atlantic Ocean downwind of Europe in a continentally polluted air mass. The closed cells undergo cleansing process that was tracked for 3.5 days that resulted with a rapid transition from closed to open cells once the clouds started drizzling heavily. The mechanism leading to the eventual breakup of the clouds due to both meteorological and aerosol considerations is elucidated. We termed this cleansing and cloud breakup process maritimization. Further study is needed to assess the climatological significance of such situations.

  13. Global impact of smoke aerosols from landscape fires on climate and the Hadley circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tosca, M. G.; Randerson, J. T.; Zender, C. S.

    2013-05-01

    Each year landscape fires across the globe emit black and organic carbon smoke particles that can last in the atmosphere for days to weeks. We characterized the climate response to these aerosols using an Earth system model. We used remote sensing observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and simulations from the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5) to optimize satellite-derived smoke emissions for high biomass burning regions. Subsequent global simulations using the adjusted fire emissions produced AODs that were in closer agreement with surface and space-based measurements. We then used CAM5, which included radiative aerosol effects, to evaluate the climate response to the fire-aerosol forcing. We conducted two 52 yr simulations, one with four sets of monthly cycling 1997-2009 fire emissions and one without. Fire emissions increased global mean annual AOD by 10% (+0.02) and decreased net all-sky surface radiation by 1% (1.3 W m-2). Elevated AODs reduced global surface temperatures by 0.13 ± 0.01 °C. Though global precipitation declined only slightly, patterns of precipitation changed, with large reductions near the Equator offset by smaller increases north and south of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). A combination of increased tropospheric heating and reduced surface temperatures increased equatorial subsidence and weakened the Hadley circulation. As a consequence, precipitation decreased over tropical forests in South America, Africa and equatorial Asia. These results are consistent with the observed correlation between global temperatures and the strength of the Hadley circulation and studies linking tropospheric heating from black carbon aerosols with tropical expansion.

  14. First Estimates of the Radiative Forcing of Aerosols Generated from Biomass Burning Using Satellite Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Christopher, Sundar A.; Kliche, Donna A.; Chou, Joyce; Welch, Ronald M.

    1996-01-01

    Collocated measurements from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) scanner are used to examine the radiative forcing of atmospheric aerosols generated from biomass burning for 13 images in South America. Using the AVHRR, Local Area Coverage (LAC) data, a new technique based on a combination of spectral and textural measures is developed for detecting these aerosols. Then, the instantaneous shortwave, longwave, and net radiative forcing values are computed from the ERBE instantaneous scanner data. Results for the selected samples from 13 images show that the mean instantaneous net radiative forcing for areas with heavy aerosol loading is about -36 W/sq m and that for the optically thin aerosols are about -16 W/sq m. These results, although preliminary, provide the first estimates of radiative forcing of atmospheric aerosols from biomass burning using satellite data.

  15. First Estimates of the Radiative Forcing of Aerosols Generated from Biomass Burning using Satellite Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chistopher, Sundar A.; Kliche, Donna V.; Chou, Joyce; Welch, Ronald M.

    1996-01-01

    Collocated measurements from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) scanner are used to examine the radiative forcing of atmospheric aerosols generated from biomass burning for 13 images in South America. Using the AVHRR, Local Area Coverage (LAC) data, a new technique based on a combination of spectral and textural measures is developed for detecting these aerosols. Then, the instantaneous shortwave, longwave, and net radiative forcing values are computed from the ERBE instantaneous scanner data. Results for the selected samples from 13 images show that the mean instantaneous net radiative forcing for areas with heavy aerosol loading is about -36 W/sq m and that for the optically thin aerosols are about -16 W/sq m. These results, although preliminary, provide the first estimates of radiative forcing of atmospheric aerosols from biomass burning using satellite data.

  16. Climate impacts of changing aerosol emissions since 1996

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kühn, T.; Partanen, A.-I.; Laakso, A.; Lu, Z.; Bergman, T.; Mikkonen, S.; Kokkola, H.; Korhonen, H.; Räisänen, P.; Streets, D. G.; Romakkaniemi, S.; Laaksonen, A.

    2014-07-01

    Increases in Asian aerosol emissions have been suggested as one possible reason for the hiatus in global temperature increase during the past 15 years. We study the effect of sulphur and black carbon (BC) emission changes between 1996 and 2010 on the global energy balance. We find that the increased Asian emissions have had very little regional or global effects, while the emission reductions in Europe and the U.S. have caused a positive radiative forcing. In our simulations, the global-mean aerosol direct radiative effect changes by 0.06 W/m2 during 1996 to 2010, while the effective radiative forcing (ERF) is 0.42 W/m2. The rather large ERF arises mainly from changes in cloudiness, especially in Europe. In Asia, the BC warming due to sunlight absorption has largely offset the cooling caused by sulphate aerosols. Asian BC concentrations have increased by a nearly constant fraction at all altitudes, and thus, they warm the atmosphere also in cloudy conditions.

  17. Limits to the Indirect Aerosol Forcing in Stratocumulus

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ackerman, Andrew; Toon, O.; Stevens, D.; Coakley, J., Jr.

    2003-01-01

    The indirect radiative forcing of aerosols is poorly constrained by the observational data underlying the simple cloud parameterizations in GCMs. signal of cloud response to increased aerosol concentrations from meteorological noise. Recent satellite observations indicate a significant decrease of cloud water in ship tracks, in contrast to an ensemble of in situ measurements showing no average change in cloud water relative to the surrounding clouds. Both results contradict the expectation of cloud water increasing in polluted clouds. We find through large-eddy simulations of stratocumulus that the trend in the satellite data is likely an artifact of sampling only overcast clouds. The simulations instead show cloud cover increasing with droplet concentrations. The simulations also show that increases in cloud water from suppressing drizzle by increased droplet concentrations are favored at night or at extremely low droplet concentrations. At typical droplet concentrations we find that the Twomey effect on cloud albedo is amplified very little by the secondary indirect effect of drizzle suppression, largely because the absorption of solar radiation by cloud water reduces boundary-layer mixing in the daytime and thereby restricts any possible increase in cloud water from drizzle suppression. The cloud and boundary layer respond to radiative heating variations on a time scale of hours, and on longer time scales respond to imbalances between large-scale horizontal advection and the entrainment of inversion air. We analyze the co-varying response of cloud water, cloud thickness, width of droplet size distributions, and dispersion of the optical depth, as well as the overall response of cloud albedo, to changes in droplet concentrations. We also dissect the underlying physical mechanisms through sensitivity studies. Ship tracks represent an ideal natural laboratory to extricate the

  18. Global climate impacts of country-level primary carbonaceous aerosol from solid-fuel cookstove emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lacey, Forrest; Henze, Daven

    2015-11-01

    Cookstove use is globally one of the largest unregulated anthropogenic sources of primary carbonaceous aerosol. While reducing cookstove emissions through national-scale mitigation efforts has clear benefits for improving indoor and ambient air quality, and significant climate benefits from reduced green-house gas emissions, climate impacts associated with reductions to co-emitted black (BC) and organic carbonaceous aerosol are not well characterized. Here we attribute direct, indirect, semi-direct, and snow/ice albedo radiative forcing (RF) and associated global surface temperature changes to national-scale carbonaceous aerosol cookstove emissions. These results are made possible through the use of adjoint sensitivity modeling to relate direct RF and BC deposition to emissions. Semi- and indirect effects are included via global scaling factors, and bounds on these estimates are drawn from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. Absolute regional temperature potentials are used to estimate global surface temperature changes. Bounds are placed on these estimates, drawing from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. We estimate a range of 0.16 K warming to 0.28 K cooling with a central estimate of 0.06 K cooling from the removal of cookstove aerosol emissions. At the national emissions scale, countries’ impacts on global climate range from net warming (e.g., Mexico and Brazil) to net cooling, although the range of estimated impacts for all countries span zero given uncertainties in RF estimates and fuel characterization. We identify similarities and differences in the sets of countries with the highest emissions and largest cookstove temperature impacts (China, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal), those with the largest temperature impact per carbon emitted (Kazakhstan, Estonia, and Mongolia), and those that would provide the

  19. Quantifying components of aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions in climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zelinka, Mark D.; Andrews, Timothy; Forster, Piers M.; Taylor, Karl E.

    2014-06-01

    The interaction of anthropogenic aerosols with radiation and clouds is the largest source of uncertainty in the radiative forcing of the climate during the industrial period. Here we apply novel techniques to diagnose the contributors to the shortwave (SW) effective radiative forcing (ERF) from aerosol-radiation-interaction (ERFari) and from aerosol cloud interaction (ERFaci) in experiments performed in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We find that the ensemble mean SW ERFari+aci of -1.40±0.56 W m-2 comes roughly 25% from ERFari (-0.35±0.20 W m-2) and 75% from ERFaci (-1.04±0.67 W m-2). ERFari is made up of -0.62±0.30 W m-2 due to aerosol scattering opposed by +0.26 ± 0.12 W m-2 due to aerosol absorption and is largest near emission sources. The ERFari from nonsulfate aerosols is +0.13 ± 0.09 W m-2, consisting of -0.15±0.11 W m-2 of scattering and +0.29 ± 0.15 W m-2 of absorption. The change in clear-sky flux is a negatively biased measure of ERFari, as the presence of clouds reduces the magnitude and intermodel spread of ERFari by 40-50%. ERFaci, which is large both near and downwind of emission sources, is composed of -0.99±0.54 W m-2 from enhanced cloud scattering, with much smaller contributions from increased cloud amount and absorption. In models that allow aerosols to affect ice clouds, large increases in the optical depth of high clouds cause substantial longwave and shortwave radiative anomalies. Intermodel spread in ERFaci is dominated by differences in how aerosols increase cloud scattering, but even if all models agreed on this effect, over a fifth of the spread in ERFaci would remain due solely to differences in total cloud amount.

  20. Asian aerosols: current and year 2030 distributions and implications to human health and regional climate change.

    PubMed

    Carmichael, Gregory R; Adhikary, Bhupesh; Kulkarni, Sarika; D'Allura, Alessio; Tang, Youhua; Streets, David; Zhang, Qiang; Bond, Tami C; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran; Jamroensan, Aditsuda; Marrapu, Pallavi

    2009-08-01

    Aerosol distributions in Asia calculated over a 4-year period and constrained by satellite observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) are presented. Vast regions in Asia that include > 80% of the population have PM2.5 concentrations that exceed on an annual basis the WHO guideline of 10 microg/m3, often by factors of 2 to 4. These high aerosol loadings also have important radiative effects, causing a significant dimming at the surface, and mask approximately 45% of the warming by greenhouse gases. Black carbon (BC) concentrations are high throughout Asia, representing 5-10% of the total AOD, and contributing significantly to atmospheric warming (its warming potential is approximately 55% of that due to CO2). PM levels and AODs in year 2030, estimated based on simulations that consider future changes in emissions, are used to explore opportunities for win-win strategies built upon addressing air quality and climate change together. It is found that in 2030 the PM2.5 levels in significant parts of Asia will increase and exacerbate health impacts; but the aerosols will have a larger masking effect on radiative forcing, due to a decrease in BC and an increase in SO2 emissions. PMID:19731681

  1. A regional climate model study of how biomass burning aerosol impacts land-atmosphere interactions over the Amazon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yan; Fu, Rong; Yu, Hongbin; Dickinson, Robert E.; Juarez, Robinson Negron; Chin, Mian; Wang, Hui

    2008-07-01

    Ensemble simulations of a regional climate model assuming smoke aerosol in the Amazon suggest that dynamic changes of cloud cover contributes to the radiative effect of the smoke on the diurnal cycles of surface fluxes and the depth and structure of planetary boundary layer (PBL). In addition to their local effects, the aerosol radiative forcing also appears to weaken or delay the circulation transition from dry to wet season, leading to a weaker moisture transport into the smoke area where the aerosols optical depth, AOD, exceeds 0.3 and a stronger moisture transport and increase of cloudiness in the region upwind to the smoke area. The land surface scheme is modified to improve the regional climate model simulation of the daily mean and diurnal cycle of the surface sensible and latent heat fluxes over the Amazon rain forest. The aerosol radiative forcing is applied to the model during a dry to wet transition season (August-October) in that region. Cloudiness decreases in early afternoon due to the absorption of solar radiation by smoke aerosols partially compensate for the reduction of surface solar flux by aerosol scattering, shifting the strongest changes of surface flux and the PBL to late morning. The reduction of net solar radiation at the surface by smoke is locally largely compensated by reduction of surface sensible flux, with reduction of latent flux only about 30% as large. The strong aerosol absorption in the top 1 km of the aerosol layer stabilizes the 2 to 3 km layer immediately above the daytime PBL and consequently cloudiness decreases. This reduced surface solar flux and more stable lapse rate at the top of the PBL stabilize the lower troposphere. These changes lead to anomalous wind divergence in the southern Amazon and anomalous wind convergence over the equatorial western Amazon in the upwind direction of the smoke area.

  2. How Well Will MODIS Measure Top of Atmosphere Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Remer, Lorraine A.; Kaufman, Yoram J.; Levin, Zev; Ghan, Stephen; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The new generation of satellite sensors such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) will be able to detect and characterize global aerosols with an unprecedented accuracy. The question remains whether this accuracy will be sufficient to narrow the uncertainties in our estimates of aerosol radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere. Satellite remote sensing detects aerosol optical thickness with the least amount of relative error when aerosol loading is high. Satellites are less effective when aerosol loading is low. We use the monthly mean results of two global aerosol transport models to simulate the spatial distribution of smoke aerosol in the Southern Hemisphere during the tropical biomass burning season. This spatial distribution allows us to determine that 87-94% of the smoke aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere occurs in grid squares with sufficient signal to noise ratio to be detectable from space. The uncertainty of quantifying the smoke aerosol forcing in the Southern Hemisphere depends on the uncertainty introduced by errors in estimating the background aerosol, errors resulting from uncertainties in surface properties and errors resulting from uncertainties in assumptions of aerosol properties. These three errors combine to give overall uncertainties of 1.5 to 2.2 Wm-2 (21-56%) in determining the Southern Hemisphere smoke aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere. The range of values depend on which estimate of MODIS retrieval uncertainty is used, either the theoretical calculation (upper bound) or the empirical estimate (lower bound). Strategies that use the satellite data to derive flux directly or use the data in conjunction with ground-based remote sensing and aerosol transport models can reduce these uncertainties.

  3. The Influence of Tropical Air-Sea Interaction on the Climate Impact of Aerosols: A Hierarchical Modeling Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsieh, W. C.; Saravanan, R.; Chang, P.; Mahajan, S.

    2014-12-01

    In this study, we use a hierarchical modeling approach to investigate the influence of tropical air-sea feedbacks on climate impacts of aerosols in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We construct four different models by coupling the atmospheric component of CESM, the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM), to four different ocean models: (i) the Data Ocean Model (DOM; prescribed SST), (i) Slab Ocean Model (SOM; thermodynamic coupling), (iii) Reduced Gravity Ocean Model (RGOM; dynamic coupling), and (iv) the Parallel Ocean Program (POP; full ocean model). These four models represent progressively increasing degree of coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean. The RGOM model, in particular, is tuned to produce a good simulation of ENSO and the associated tropical air-sea interaction, without being impacted by the climate drifts exhibited by fully-coupled GCMs. For each method of coupling, a pair of numerical experiments, including present day (year 2000) and preindustrial (year 1850) sulfate aerosol loading, were carried out. Our results indicate that the inclusion of air-sea interaction has large impacts on the spatial structure of the climate response induced by aerosols. In response to sulfate aerosol forcing, ITCZ shifts southwards as a result of the anomalous clockwise MMC change which transports moisture southwardly across the Equator. We present analyses of the regional response to sulfate aerosol forcing in the equatorial Pacific as well as the zonally-averaged response. The decomposition of the change in the net surface energy flux shows the most dominant terms are net shortwave radiative flux at the surface and latent heat flux. Further analyses show all ocean model simulations simulate a positive change of northward atmospheric energy transport across the Equator in response to the perturbed radiative sulfate forcing. This positive northward atmospheric energy transport change plays a role in compensating partially cooling caused by sulfate aerosols.

  4. Asian Monsoon Changes and the Role of Aerosol and Greenhouse Gas Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ting, M.; Li, X.

    2015-12-01

    Changes in Asian summer (June to August) monsoon in response to aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing are examined using observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model, multi-realization ensemble. Results show that during the historical period, CMIP5 models show a predominantly drying trend in Asian monsoon, while in the 21st Century under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (rcp8.5) scenario, monsoon rainfall enhances across the entire Asian domain. The thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms causing the changes are evaluated using the moisture budget analysis. The drying trend in the CMIP5 historical simulations and the wetting trend in the rcp8.5 projections can be explained by the relative importance of dynamical and thermodynamical contributions to the total moisture convergence. While thermodynamic mechanism dominates in the future, the historical rainfall changes are dominated by the changes in circulation. The relative contributions of aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the historical monsoon change are further examined using CMIP5 single-forcing simulations. Rainfall reduces under aerosol forcing and increases under greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Aerosol forcing dominates over the greenhouse effect during the historical period, leading to the general drying trend in the all-forcing simulations. While the thermodynamic change of mean moisture convergence in the all-forcing case is dominated by the GHG forcing, the dynamic change in mean moisture convergence in the all-forcing case is dominated by the aerosol forcing. Further analysis using atmospheric GCM with prescribed aerosol and GHG radiative forcing versus those with the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) warming suggests that the weak circulation changes due to GHG forcing is a result of the cancellation between CO2 radiative forcing and the SST warming, while aerosol radiative effect tends to enhance the circulation response due to SST forcing.

  5. Case Studies of the Vertical Structure of the Direct Shortwave Aerosol Radiative Forcing During TARFOX

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Redemann, J.; Turco, R. P.; Liou, K. N.; Hobbs, P. V.; Hartley, W. S.; Bergstrom, R. W.; Browell, E. V.; Russell, P. B.

    2000-01-01

    The vertical structure of aerosol-induced radiative flux changes in the Earth's troposphere affects local heating rates and thereby convective processes, the formation and lifetime of clouds, and hence the distribution of chemical constituents. We present observationally-based estimates of the vertical structure of direct shortwave aerosol radiative forcing for two case studies from the Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observational Experiment (TARFOX) which took place on the US East coast in July 1996. The aerosol radiative forcings are computed using the Fu-Liou broadband radiative transfer model. The aerosol optical properties used in the radiative transfer simulations are calculated from independent vertically-resolved estimates of the complex aerosol indices of refraction in two to three distinct vertical layers, using profiles of in situ particle size distributions measured aboard the University of Washington research aircraft. Aerosol single-scattering albedos at 450 nm thus determined range from 0.9 to 0.985, while the asymmetry factor varies from 0.6 to 0.8. The instantaneous shortwave aerosol radiative forcings derived from the optical profiles of the aerosols are of the order of -36 W/sq m at the top of the atmosphere and about -56 W/sq m at the surface for both case studies.

  6. Case Studies of the Vertical Structure of the Direct Shortwave Aerosol Radiative Forcing During TARFOX

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Redemann, J.; Turco, R. P.; Liou, K. N.; Hobbs, P. V.; Hartley, W. S.; Bergstrom, R. W.; Browell, E. V.; Russell, P. B.

    2000-01-01

    The vertical structure of aerosol-induced radiative flux changes in the Earth's troposphere affects local heating rates and thereby convective processes, the formation and lifetime of clouds, and hence the distribution of chemical constituents. We present observationally based estimates of the vertical structure of direct shortwave aerosol radiative forcing for two case studies from the Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observational Experiment (TARFOX) which took place on the U.S. east coast in July 1996. The aerosol radiative forcings are computed using the Fu-Liou broadband radiative transfer model. The aerosol optical properties used in the radiative transfer simulations are calculated from independent vertically resolved estimates of the complex aerosol indices of refraction in two to three distinct vertical layers, using profiles of in situ particle size distributions measured aboard the University of Washington research aircraft. Aerosol single-scattering albedos at 450 nm thus determined range from 0.9 to 0.985, while the asymmetry factor varies from 0.6 to 0.8. The instantaneous shortwave aerosol radiative forcings derived from the optical properties of the aerosols are of the order of -36 Wm(exp -2) at the top of the atmosphere and about -56 Wm(exp -2) at the surface for both case studies.

  7. Aerosols over Continental Portugal (1978-1993): their sources and an impact on the regional climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morozova, A. L.; Mironova, I. A.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding of aerosol sources which affect climate is an important problem open in front of scientists as well as policymakers. The role of aerosols in local climate variability depends on a~balance between aerosol absorbing and scattering particles as well as on variability of environmental conditions. In this paper we investigate variability of aerosol content (both absorbing and scattering UV radiation) over Continental Portugal in dependence on aerosol sources (volcanic eruptions, dust events, wildfires and anthropogenic pollution). The effect of the aerosol on the climate is studied analyzing their contribution to variations of temperature, sunshine duration and precipitation over Portuguese regions. The present analysis is based on a developed modern multiple regression technique allowing us to build the statistical correlation models to determine both the main local aerosol sources and aerosol's influence on the climate of the Continental Portugal during 1978-1993 time period. The analysis allows us to conclude that the main sources driving the variations of the aerosol content over studied locations are wildfires, mineral dust intrusions and anthropogenic pollution. The relations between the aerosol content variations and the atmospheric parameters depend on the level of urbanization of the studied region, the type of aerosol and the season. The most significant finding is the decrease of the daily temperature (and diurnal temperature range) related to the decrease of sunshine duration observed during the summer periods of increased content of the absorbing aerosols in the atmosphere.

  8. Present and potential future contributions of sulfate, black and organic carbon aerosols from China to global air quality, premature mortality and radiative forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saikawa, E.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L. W.; Liu, J.; Mauzerall, D. L.

    2008-12-01

    Aerosols are harmful to human health and have both direct and indirect effects on climate. China is a major contributor to global emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), a sulfate (SO42-) precursor, organic carbon (OC), and black carbon (BC) aerosols. Although increasingly examined, the effect of present and potential future levels of these emissions on global premature mortality and climate change has not been well quantified. Through both direct and indirect effects, SO42- and OC exert negative radiative forcing (cooling) while BC exerts positive forcing (warming). We analyze the effect of China's emissions of SO2, SO42-, OC and BC in 2000 and for three emission scenarios in 2030 on global surface aerosol concentrations, premature mortality, and radiative forcing. Using global models of chemical transport (MOZART-2) and radiative transfer (GFDL RTM), and combining simulation results with gridded population data, mortality rates, and concentration-response relationships from the epidemiological literature, we estimate the contribution of Chinese aerosols to global annual premature mortality and to radiative forcing in 2000 and 2030. In 2000, we estimate these aerosols cause 385,320 premature deaths in China and an additional 18 240 globally. In 2030, aggressive emission controls lead to a reduction in premature deaths to 200,370 in China and 7,740 elsewhere, while under a high emissions scenario premature deaths would increase to 602,950 in China and to 29,750 elsewhere. Because the negative radiative forcing from SO42- and OC is larger than the positive forcing from BC, the Chinese aerosols lead to global net direct radiative forcing of -74 mW m-2 in 2000 and between -15 and -97 mW m-2 in 2030 based on the emissions scenario. Our analysis suggests that environmental policies that simultaneously improve public health and mitigate climate change would be highly beneficial (eg. reductions in BC emissions).

  9. Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol-climate model intercomparison studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.; Ghan, S. J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, P.-L.; Rasch, P. J.

    2014-04-01

    Nudging is an assimilation technique widely used in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity of simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on longwave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy for the investigation of aerosol indirect effects through ice clouds, since it provides well-constrained meteorology without strongly perturbing the model's mean climate.

  10. Easy Aerosol - Robust and non-robust circulation responses to aerosol radiative forcing in comprehensive atmosphere models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voigt, Aiko; Bony, Sandrine; Stevens, Bjorn; Boucher, Olivier; Medeiros, Brian; Pincus, Robert; Wang, Zhili; Zhang, Kai; Lewinschal, Anna; Bellouin, Nicolas; Yang, Young-Min

    2015-04-01

    A number of recent studies illustrated the potential of aerosols to change the large-scale atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns. It remains unclear, however, to what extent the proposed aerosol-induced changes reflect robust model behavior or are affected by uncertainties in the models' treatment of parametrized physical processes, such as those related to clouds. "Easy Aerosol", a model-intercomparison project organized within the Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity of the World Climate Research Programme, addresses this question by subjecting a suite of comprehensive atmosphere general circulation models with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) to the same set of idealized "easy" aerosol perturbations. This contribution discusses the aerosol perturbations as well as their impact on the model's precipitation and surface winds. The aerosol perturbations are designed based on a global aerosol climatology and mimic the gravest mode of the anthropogenic aerosol. Specifically, the meridional and zonal distributions of total aerosol optical depth are approximated by a superposition of Gaussian plumes; the vertical distribution is taken as constant within the lowest 1250m of the atmosphere followed by an exponential decay with height above. The aerosol both scatters and absorbs shortwave radiation, but in order to focus on direct radiative effects aerosol-cloud interactions are omitted. Each model contributes seven simulations. A clean control case with no aerosol-radiative effects at all is compared to six perturbed simulations with differing aerosol loading, zonal aerosol distributions, and SSTs. To estimate the role of natural variability, one of the models, MPI-ESM, contributes a 5-member ensemble for each simulation. If the observed SSTs from years 1979-2005 are prescribed, the aerosol leads to a local depression of precipitation at the Northern Hemisphere center of the aerosol and a northward shift of the

  11. Estimation of uncertainty of direct radiative forcing of the aerosol for a rural site in central Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feczkó, T.; Marton, A.; Molnár, A.; Szentes, G.

    Direct climate forcing due to scattering and absorption of the main aerosol components (ammonium sulfate and total carbon) was estimated seasonally in Hungary by a box model. Ammonium sulfate played an important role in the direct forcing while the carbonaceous aerosol contributed significantly to the development of extinction. In summer, the scattering effect of both species showed a maximum (ammonium sulfate: -2.21±1.73 W m -2, total carbon: -0.88±0.73 W m -2), while the absorption of carbon was the most significant in autumn (+0.40±0.41 W m -2). Uncertainty of these data was obtained by using the theory of error propagation and by taking into consideration the standard deviation of the experimental parameters. The relatively high values of the calculated relative standard deviations of the climate forcing data were attributed partly to the large number of the model parameters (9 and 11) and partly to their large uncertainty. The calculated uncertainties of various forcings were found to be in between the factors of 1.7 and 2.1 which were lower than those generally applied in forcing calculations. Parameter sensitivity analysis of the model equation proved that the reliability of the calculated data could be improved if attention is paid to the measurement of certain parameters such as: mass concentration, cloud coverage, surface albedo, upscattered fraction, single-scattering albedo and the fractional transmittance of the atmosphere.

  12. The implications for climate sensitivity of AR5 forcing and heat uptake estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewis, Nicholas; Curry, Judith A.

    2015-08-01

    Energy budget estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) are derived using the comprehensive 1750-2011 time series and the uncertainty ranges for forcing components provided in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Working Group I Report, along with its estimates of heat accumulation in the climate system. The resulting estimates are less dependent on global climate models and allow more realistically for forcing uncertainties than similar estimates based on forcings diagnosed from simulations by such models. Base and final periods are selected that have well matched volcanic activity and influence from internal variability. Using 1859-1882 for the base period and 1995-2011 for the final period, thus avoiding major volcanic activity, median estimates are derived for ECS of 1.64 K and for TCR of 1.33 K. ECS 17-83 and 5-95 % uncertainty ranges are 1.25-2.45 and 1.05-4.05 K; the corresponding TCR ranges are 1.05-1.80 and 0.90-2.50 K. Results using alternative well-matched base and final periods provide similar best estimates but give wider uncertainty ranges, principally reflecting smaller changes in average forcing. Uncertainty in aerosol forcing is the dominant contribution to the ECS and TCR uncertainty ranges.

  13. SOURCE ATTRIBUTION OF RADIATIVE FORCING FROM SHORT LIVED CLIMATE FORCING AGENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The immediate project result is quantification of the pre-industrial to present forcing for anthropogenic emissions, the radiative effects of natural emissions, and spatial distribution of the radiative forcing efficiency for key aerosol and O3 precursors (i.e., mW/m2<...

  14. Using explicit macroscopic feedback to determine efficacy of climate forcings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kravitz, B.; MacMartin, D. G.

    2013-12-01

    Calculating efficacies of climate forcings has been a useful method of determining the importance of forcing agents relative to CO2. However, because the strength of internal feedbacks is dependent upon the climate state, efficacies are dependent upon the strengths of the applied forcings, and simulations designed to capture these efficacies have tradeoffs between simulation length and accurately capturing the steady state climate response. We propose an alternate method of determining a quantity similar to climate efficacy via adjusting the amount of forcing by feeding back the observed climate state. By balancing CO2 forcing with another climate forcing, many internal feedbacks are suppressed, which linearizes the climate response to the forcing and promotes rapid convergence of the simulation. We performed simulations in two fully coupled general circulation models of Earth's climate. Doubling the present day CO2 concentration requires a steady state solar reduction of approximately 2.5%; this answer can be obtained with a simulation of less than 30 years. With this method, the amount of solar reduction scales linearly with the logarithmic change in CO2 concentration. We explore similar calculations using other climate forcings. Because this method circumvents calculation of radiative forcing, intercomparison of values between different climate forcings is difficult and is a drawback of our method as compared to the original method of calculating efficacy. Feedback can be used to estimate the efficacy of solar reductions in models. The solar reduction that is required to maintain temperature in the presence of an instantaneous change in atmospheric CO2 concentrations is computed using feedback. The left-hand panel illustrates both the solar forcing as a function of time for offsetting 2×CO2, and the efficacy estimated as the mean solar reduction after the initial transient; extremely rapid convergence is obtained. The right-hand panel illustrates the linearity

  15. Aerosols over continental Portugal (1978-1993): their sources and an impact on the regional climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morozova, A. L.; Mironova, I. A.

    2015-06-01

    Understanding of aerosol sources that affect climate is an ongoing problem facing scientists as well as policymakers. The role of aerosols in local climate variability depends on a balance between light absorbing and scattering particles as well as on variability of environmental conditions. In this paper we investigate variability of aerosol content (both absorbing and scattering ultraviolet radiation) over continental Portugal in connection with aerosol sources (volcanic eruptions, dust events, wildfires and anthropogenic pollution). The effect of the aerosol on the climate is studied analyzing their contribution to variations of temperature, pressure, sunshine duration and precipitation over Portuguese regions. The present analysis is based on a developed modern multiple regression technique allowing us to build the statistical correlation models to determine both the main local aerosol sources and aerosol's influence on the climate of continental Portugal during 1978-1993. The analysis allows us to conclude that the main sources driving the variations of the aerosol content over studied locations are wildfires, mineral dust intrusions and anthropogenic pollution. The relations between the aerosol content variations and the atmospheric parameters depend on the level of urbanization of the studied region, the type of aerosol and the season. The most significant finding is the decrease of the daily maximum temperature (and diurnal temperature range) related to the decrease of sunshine duration observed during the summer periods of increased content of the absorbing aerosols in the atmosphere.

  16. Climate Response to Spectral Solar Forcing from GISS GCMAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wen, G.; Cahalan, R. F.; Rind, D. H.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J. W.

    2012-12-01

    Solar variations impose a unique external forcing to Earth's climate. Recent observations from Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) on Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) indicate different spectral irradiance variations, both amplitude and phase, from previously models. The current version of Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM) couples atmosphere with ocean, and has interactive atmospheric chemistry with a model top near the mesopause, allowing us to examine the full climate response to spectral solar forcing. We use the GCMAM to examine the climate response to two types of spectral solar forcing, with one from reconstruction and the other based on SORCE observations. We show different ozone and temperature responses to the two solar forcing scenarios on decadal time scale (i.e., solar minimum minus solar maximum) and long- term trends on centennial time scales. We further discuss mechanisms for Sun Climate connection.

  17. The Impact of Changing Climate on Ammonia Emissions from Agriculture and the Associated Climate Forcings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, D. S.; Riddick, S. N.; Hess, P. G. M.

    2015-12-01

    Agriculture is the largest anthropogenic source of ammonia (NH3) on a global scale with major contributions from the application of synthetic fertilizer and manure from livestock. While strict controls are placed on the emissions of many industrial pollutants, NH3 concentrations are expected to increase this century. In addition to future expansion of agricultural activities that could lead to greater NH3 emissions, NH3 emissions are affected by changes in temperature and precipitation. Here we use a newly developed agricultural N pathways model running in a global terrestrial model (Community Land Model v4.0) to estimate future NH3 emissions from manure and synthetic fertilizer application, and the impact of changing climate on these emissions and other N pathways (runoff, denitrification, etc.). We include future increases in the application of manure and synthetic fertilizer that are consistent with a middle-of-the-road projection of population growth and per capita caloric intake. Combined with atmospheric forcing that follows RCP8.5, NH3 emissions increase by about 50% and 90% between years 2010 and 2100 from synthetic fertilizer and manure, respectively. Roughly 25% of this increase can be attributed to the changing climate, mainly increased global temperatures over the 21st century. We show associated changes in ammonium nitrate and ammonium sulfate aerosol concentrations and radiative forcings, the results of a set of additional simulations using the Community Atmosphere Model v5.0 and an offline radiative transfer scheme. This work suggests that projections of global NH3 concentrations need to take changes in climate into account.