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Sample records for aerosol-climate model echam-ham

  1. The global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM, version 2: sensitivity to improvements in process representations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, K.; O'Donnell, D.; Kazil, J.; Stier, P.; Kinne, S.; Lohmann, U.; Ferrachat, S.; Croft, B.; Quaas, J.; Wan, H.; Rast, S.; Feichter, J.

    2012-03-01

    This paper introduces and evaluates the second version of the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM. Major changes have been brought into the model, including new parameterizations for aerosol nucleation and water uptake, an explicit treatment of secondary organic aerosols, modified emission calculations for sea salt and mineral dust, the coupling of aerosol microphysics to a two-moment stratiform cloud microphysics scheme, and alternative wet scavenging parameterizations. These revisions extend the model's capability to represent details of the aerosol lifecycle and its interaction with climate. Sensitivity experiments are carried out to analyse the effects of these improvements in the process representation on the simulated aerosol properties and global distribution. The new parameterizations that have largest impact on the global mean aerosol optical depth and radiative effects turn out to be the water uptake scheme and cloud microphysics. The former leads to a significant decrease of aerosol water contents in the lower troposphere, and consequently smaller optical depth; the latter results in higher aerosol loading and longer lifetime due to weaker in-cloud scavenging. The combined effects of the new/updated parameterizations are demonstrated by comparing the new model results with those from the earlier version, and against observations. Model simulations are evaluated in terms of aerosol number concentrations against measurements collected from twenty field campaigns as well as from fixed measurement sites, and in terms of optical properties against the AERONET measurements. Results indicate a general improvement with respect to the earlier version. The aerosol size distribution and spatial-temporal variance simulated by HAM2 are in better agreement with the observations. Biases in the earlier model version in aerosol optical depth and in the Ångström parameter have been reduced. The paper also points out the remaining model deficiencies that need to be

  2. Aerosol indirect effects from shipping emissions: sensitivity studies with the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peters, K.; Stier, P.; Quaas, J.; Graßl, H.

    2012-07-01

    In this study, we employ the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM to globally assess aerosol indirect effects (AIEs) resulting from shipping emissions of aerosols and aerosol precursor gases. We implement shipping emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2), black carbon (BC) and particulate organic matter (POM) for the year 2000 into the model and quantify the model's sensitivity towards uncertainties associated with the emission parameterisation as well as with the shipping emissions themselves. Sensitivity experiments are designed to investigate (i) the uncertainty in the size distribution of emitted particles, (ii) the uncertainty associated with the total amount of emissions, and (iii) the impact of reducing carbonaceous emissions from ships. We use the results from one sensitivity experiment for a detailed discussion of shipping-induced changes in the global aerosol system as well as the resulting impact on cloud properties. From all sensitivity experiments, we find AIEs from shipping emissions to range from -0.32 ± 0.01 W m-2 to -0.07 ± 0.01 W m-2 (global mean value and inter-annual variability as a standard deviation). The magnitude of the AIEs depends much more on the assumed emission size distribution and subsequent aerosol microphysical interactions than on the magnitude of the emissions themselves. It is important to note that although the strongest estimate of AIEs from shipping emissions in this study is relatively large, still much larger estimates have been reported in the literature before on the basis of modelling studies. We find that omitting just carbonaceous particle emissions from ships favours new particle formation in the boundary layer. These newly formed particles contribute just about as much to the CCN budget as the carbonaceous particles would, leaving the globally averaged AIEs nearly unaltered compared to a simulation including carbonaceous particle emissions from ships.

  3. Aerosol indirect effects from shipping emissions: sensitivity studies with the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peters, K.; Stier, P.; Quaas, J.; Graßl, H.

    2012-03-01

    In this study, we employ the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM to globally assess aerosol indirect effects (AIEs) resulting from shipping emissions of aerosols and aerosol precursor gases. We implement shipping emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2), black carbon (BC) and particulate organic matter (POM) for the year 2000 into the model and quantify the model's sensitivity towards uncertainties associated with the emission parameterisation as well as with the shipping emissions themselves. Sensitivity experiments are designed to investigate (i) the uncertainty in the size distribution of emitted particles, (ii) the uncertainty associated with the total amount of emissions, and (iii) the impact of reducing carbonaceous emissions from ships. We use the results from one sensitivity experiment for a detailed discussion of shipping-induced changes in the global aerosol system as well as the resulting impact on cloud properties. From all sensitivity experiments, we find AIEs from shipping emissions to range from -0.07 ± 0.01 W m-2 to -0.32 ± 0.01 W m-2 (global mean value and inter-annual variability as a standard deviation). The magnitude of the AIEs depends much more on the assumed emission size distribution and subsequent aerosol microphysical interactions than on the magnitude of the emissions themselves. It is important to note that although the strongest estimate of AIEs from shipping emissions in this study is relatively large, still much larger estimates have been reported in the literature before on the basis of modelling studies. We find that omitting just carbonaceous particle emissions from ships favours new particle formation in the boundary layer. These newly formed particles contribute just about as much to the CCN budget as the carbonaceous particles would, leaving the globally averaged AIEs nearly unaltered compared to a simulation including carbonaceous particle emissions from ships.

  4. The global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM, version 2: sensitivity to improvements in process representations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, K.; O'Donnell, D.; Kazil, J.; Stier, P.; Kinne, S.; Lohmann, U.; Ferrachat, S.; Croft, B.; Quaas, J.; Wan, H.; Rast, S.; Feichter, J.

    2012-10-01

    This paper introduces and evaluates the second version of the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM. Major changes have been brought into the model, including new parameterizations for aerosol nucleation and water uptake, an explicit treatment of secondary organic aerosols, modified emission calculations for sea salt and mineral dust, the coupling of aerosol microphysics to a two-moment stratiform cloud microphysics scheme, and alternative wet scavenging parameterizations. These revisions extend the model's capability to represent details of the aerosol lifecycle and its interaction with climate. Nudged simulations of the year 2000 are carried out to compare the aerosol properties and global distribution in HAM1 and HAM2, and to evaluate them against various observations. Sensitivity experiments are performed to help identify the impact of each individual update in model formulation. Results indicate that from HAM1 to HAM2 there is a marked weakening of aerosol water uptake in the lower troposphere, reducing the total aerosol water burden from 75 Tg to 51 Tg. The main reason is the newly introduced κ-Köhler-theory-based water uptake scheme uses a lower value for the maximum relative humidity cutoff. Particulate organic matter loading in HAM2 is considerably higher in the upper troposphere, because the explicit treatment of secondary organic aerosols allows highly volatile oxidation products of the precursors to be vertically transported to regions of very low temperature and to form aerosols there. Sulfate, black carbon, particulate organic matter and mineral dust in HAM2 have longer lifetimes than in HAM1 because of weaker in-cloud scavenging, which is in turn related to lower autoconversion efficiency in the newly introduced two-moment cloud microphysics scheme. Modification in the sea salt emission scheme causes a significant increase in the ratio (from 1.6 to 7.7) between accumulation mode and coarse mode emission fluxes of aerosol number concentration. This

  5. Corrigendum to "Aerosol indirect effects from shipping emissions: sensitivity studies with the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM" published in Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 5985-6007, 2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peters, K.; Stier, P.; Quaas, J.; Graßl, H.

    2013-07-01

    An error in the calculation of the emitted number of primary sulfate particles for a given mass of emitted elementary sulfur has recently been identified in HAM, i.e. the aerosol module utilised in the ECHAM-HAM aerosol climate model. Correcting for this error substantially alters the estimates of top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing due to aerosol indirect effects from global shipping emissions (year 2000) as presented in Peters et al. (2012). Here, we shortly present these new results.

  6. Numerical Issues Associated with Compensating and Competing Processes in Climate Models: an Example from ECHAM-HAM

    SciTech Connect

    Wan, Hui; Rasch, Philip J.; Zhang, Kai; Kazil, Jan; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2013-06-26

    The purpose of this paper is to draw attention to the need for appropriate numerical techniques to represent process interactions in climate models. In two versions of the ECHAM-HAM model, different time integration methods are used to solve the sulfuric acid (H2SO4) gas evolution equation, which lead to substantially different results in the H2SO4 gas concentration and the aerosol nucleation rate. Using convergence tests and sensitivity simulations performed with various time stepping schemes, it is confirmed that numerical errors in the second model version are significantly smaller than those in version one. The use of sequential operator splitting in combination with long time step is identified as the main reason for the large systematic biases in the old model. The remaining errors in version two in the nucleation rate, related to the competition between condensation and nucleation, have a clear impact on the simulated concentration of cloud condensation nuclei in the lower troposphere. These errors can be significantly reduced by employing an implicit solver that handles production, condensation and nucleation at the same time. Lessons learned in this work underline the need for more caution when treating multi-time-scale problems involving compensating and competing processes, a common occurrence in current climate models.

  7. Numerical issues associated with compensating and competing processes in climate models: an example from ECHAM-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wan, H.; Rasch, P. J.; Zhang, K.; Kazil, J.; Leung, L. R.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to draw attention to the need for appropriate numerical techniques to represent process interactions in climate models. In two versions of the ECHAM-HAM model, different time integration methods are used to solve the sulfuric acid (H2SO4) gas evolution equation, which lead to substantially different results in the H2SO4 gas concentration and the aerosol nucleation rate. Using convergence tests and sensitivity simulations performed with various time stepping schemes, it is confirmed that numerical errors in the second model version are significantly smaller than those in version one. The use of sequential operator splitting in combination with long time step is identified as the main reason for the large systematic biases in the old model. The remaining errors of nucleation rate in version two, related to the competition between condensation and nucleation, have a clear impact on the simulated concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in the lower troposphere. These errors can be significantly reduced by employing an implicit solver that handles production, condensation and nucleation at the same time. Lessons learned in this work underline the need for more caution when treating multi-time-scale problems involving compensating and competing processes, a common occurrence in current climate models.

  8. Numerical issues associated with compensating and competing processes in climate models: an example from ECHAM-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wan, H.; Rasch, P. J.; Zhang, K.; Kazil, J.; Leung, L. R.

    2013-06-01

    The purpose of this paper is to draw attention to the need for appropriate numerical techniques to represent process interactions in climate models. In two versions of the ECHAM-HAM model, different time integration methods are used to solve the sulfuric acid (H2SO4) gas evolution equation, which lead to substantially different results in the H2SO4 gas concentration and the aerosol nucleation rate. Using convergence tests and sensitivity simulations performed with various time stepping schemes, it is confirmed that numerical errors in the second model version are significantly smaller than those in version one. The use of sequential operator splitting in combination with a long time step is identified as the main reason for the large systematic biases in the old model. The remaining errors of nucleation rate in version two, related to the competition between condensation and nucleation, have a clear impact on the simulated concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in the lower troposphere. These errors can be significantly reduced by employing solvers that handle production, condensation and nucleation at the same time. Lessons learned in this work underline the need for more caution when treating multi-timescale problems involving compensating and competing processes, a common occurrence in current climate models.

  9. Aerosol Climate Interactions in Climate System Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiehl, J. T.

    2002-12-01

    Aerosols are widely recognized as an important process in Earth's climate system. Observations over the past decade have improved our understanding of the physical and chemical properties of aerosols. Recently, field observations have highlighted the pervasiveness of absorbing aerosols in the atmosphere. These aerosols are of particular interest, since they alter the vertical distribution of shortwave radiative heating between the surface and atmosphere. Given this increased knowledge of aerosols from various field programs, interest is focusing on how to integrate this understanding into global climate models. These types of models provide the best tool available to comprehensively study the potential effects of aerosols on Earth's climate system. Results from climate system model simulations that include aerosol effects will be presented to illustrate key aerosol climate interactions. These simulations employ idealized and realistic distributions of absorbing aerosols. The idealized aerosol simulations provide insight into the role of aerosol shortwave absorption on the global hydrologic cycle. The realistic aerosol distributions provide insight into the local response of aerosol forcing in the Indian subcontinent region. Emphasis from these simulations will be on the hydrologic cycle, since water availability is of emerging global environmental concern. This presentation will also consider what more is needed to significantly improve our ability to model aerosol processes in climate system models. Uncertainty in aerosol climate interactions remains a major source of uncertainty in our ability to project future climate change. Focus will be on interactions between aerosols and various physical, chemical and biogeochemical aspects of the Earth system.

  10. Aerosol optical depth over the Arctic: a comparison of ECHAM-HAM and TM5 with ground-based, satellite and reanalysis data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    von Hardenberg, J.; Vozella, L.; Vitale, V.; Lupi, A.; Mazzola, M.; van Noije, T. P. C.; Strunk, A.; Provenzale, A.

    2012-03-01

    We compare ground-based measurements of aerosol optical depth and Ångström parameter at six Arctic stations in the period 2001-2006 with the results from two global aerosol dynamics and transport models, ECHAM-HAM and TM5. Satellite measurements from MODIS and the MACC reanalysis product are used to examine the spatial distribution and the seasonality of these parameters and to compare them with model results. We find that both models provide a good reproduction of the Ångström parameter but significantly underestimate the observed AOD values. We also explore the effects of changes in emissions, model resolution and the parametrization of wet scavenging.

  11. Aerosol optical depth over the Arctic: a comparison of ECHAM-HAM and TM5 with ground-based, satellite and reanalysis data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    von Hardenberg, J.; Vozella, L.; Tomasi, C.; Vitale, V.; Lupi, A.; Mazzola, M.; van Noije, T. P. C.; Strunk, A.; Provenzale, A.

    2012-08-01

    We compare ground-based measurements of aerosol optical depth and Ångström parameter at six Arctic stations in the period 2001-2006 with the results from two global aerosol dynamics and transport models, ECHAM-HAM and TM5. Satellite measurements from MODIS and the MACC reanalysis product are used to examine the spatial distribution and the seasonality of these parameters and to compare them with model results. We find that both models provide a good reproduction of the Ångström parameter but significantly underestimate the observed AOD values. We also explore the effects of changes in emissions, model resolution and the parametrization of wet scavenging.

  12. The regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pietikäinen, J.-P.; O'Donnell, D.; Teichmann, C.; Karstens, U.; Pfeifer, S.; Kazil, J.; Podzun, R.; Fiedler, S.; Kokkola, H.; Birmili, W.; O'Dowd, C.; Baltensperger, U.; Weingartner, E.; Gehrig, R.; Spindler, G.; Kulmala, M.; Feichter, J.; Jacob, D.; Laaksonen, A.

    2012-03-01

    REMO-HAM is a new regional aerosol-climate model. It is based on the REMO regional climate model and includes all of the major aerosol processes. The structure for aerosol is similar to the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM, for example the aerosol module HAM-M7 has been coupled with a two-moment stratiform cloud scheme. In this work, we have evaluated the model and compared the results against ECHAM5-HAM and measurements. Four different measurement sites was chosen for the comparison of total number concentrations, size distributions and gas phase sulfur dioxide concentrations: Hyytiälä in Finland, Melpitz in Germany, Mace Head in Ireland and Jungfraujoch in Switzerland. REMO-HAM is run with two different resolutions: 50×50 km2 and 10×10 km2. Based on our simulations, REMO-HAM can represent the measured values reasonably well. The total number concentrations are slightly underestimated, which is probably due to the missing boundary layer nucleation and online secondary organic aerosol model. The differences in the total number concentrations between REMO-HAM and ECHAM5-HAM can be mainly explained by the difference in the nucleation mode. From the meteorological point of view, REMO-HAM represents the precipitation fields and 2 m temperature profile very well compared to measurement. Overall, we have shown that REMO-HAM is a functional aerosol-climate model, which will be used in further studies.

  13. The regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pietikäinen, J.-P.; O'Donnell, D.; Teichmann, C.; Karstens, U.; Pfeifer, S.; Kazil, J.; Podzun, R.; Fiedler, S.; Kokkola, H.; Birmili, W.; O'Dowd, C.; Baltensperger, U.; Weingartner, E.; Gehrig, R.; Spindler, G.; Kulmala, M.; Feichter, J.; Jacob, D.; Laaksonen, A.

    2012-11-01

    REMO-HAM is a new regional aerosol-climate model. It is based on the REMO regional climate model and includes most of the major aerosol processes. The structure for aerosol is similar to the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM, for example the aerosol module HAM is coupled with a two-moment stratiform cloud scheme. On the other hand, REMO-HAM does not include an online coupled aerosol-radiation nor a secondary organic aerosol module. In this work, we evaluate the model and compare the results against ECHAM5-HAM and measurements. Four different measurement sites were chosen for the comparison of total number concentrations, size distributions and gas phase sulfur dioxide concentrations: Hyytiälä in Finland, Melpitz in Germany, Mace Head in Ireland and Jungfraujoch in Switzerland. REMO-HAM is run with two different resolutions: 50 × 50 km2 and 10 × 10 km2. Based on our simulations, REMO-HAM is in reasonable agreement with the measured values. The differences in the total number concentrations between REMO-HAM and ECHAM5-HAM can be mainly explained by the difference in the nucleation mode. Since we did not use activation nor kinetic nucleation for the boundary layer, the total number concentrations are somewhat underestimated. From the meteorological point of view, REMO-HAM represents the precipitation fields and 2 m temperature profile very well compared to measurement. Overall, we show that REMO-HAM is a functional aerosol-climate model, which will be used in further studies.

  14. Introducing the aerosol-climate model MAECHAM5-SAM2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hommel, R.; Timmreck, C.; Graf, H. F.

    2009-04-01

    We are presenting a new global aerosol model MAECHAM5-SAM2 to study the aerosol dynamics in the UTLS under background and volcanic conditions. The microphysical core modul SAM2 treats the formation, the evolution and the transport of stratospheric sulphuric acid aerosol. The aerosol size distribution and the weight percentage of the sulphuric acid solution is calculated dependent on the concentrations of H2SO4 and H2O, their vapor pressures, the atmospheric temperature and pressure. The fixed sectional method is used to resolve an aerosol distribution between 1 nm and 2.6 micron in particle radius. Homogeneous nucleation, condensation and evaporation, coagulation, water-vapor growth, sedimentation and sulphur chemistry are included. The module is applied in the middle-atmosphere MAECHAM5 model, resolving the atmosphere up to 0.01 hPa (~80 km) in 39 layers. It is shown here that MAECHAM5-SAM2 well represents in-situ measured size distributions of stratospheric background aerosol in the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes. Distinct differences can be seen when derived integrated aerosol parameters (surface area, effective radius) are compared with aerosol climatologies based on the SAGE II satellite instrument (derived by the University of Oxford and the NASA AMES laboratory). The bias between the model and the SAGE II data increases as the moment of the aerosol size distribution decreases. Thus the modeled effective radius show the strongest bias, followed by the aerosol surface area density. Correspondingly less biased are the higher moments volume area density and the mass density of the global stratospheric aerosol coverage. This finding supports the key finding No. 2 of the SPARC Assessment of Stratospheric Aerosol Properties (2006), where it was shown that during periods of very low aerosol load in the stratosphere, the consistency between in-situ and satellite measurements, which exist in a volcanically perturbed stratosphere, breaks down and significant

  15. Land cover maps, BVOC emissions, and SOA burden in a global aerosol-climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stanelle, Tanja; Henrot, Alexandra; Bey, Isaelle

    2015-04-01

    It has been reported that different land cover representations influence the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) (e.g. Guenther et al., 2006). But the land cover forcing used in model simulations is quite uncertain (e.g. Jung et al., 2006). As a consequence the simulated emission of BVOCs depends on the applied land cover map. To test the sensitivity of global and regional estimates of BVOC emissions on the applied land cover map we applied 3 different land cover maps into our global aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2.2. We found a high sensitivity for tropical regions. BVOCs are a very prominent precursor for the production of Secondary Organic Aerosols (SOA). Therefore the sensitivity of BVOC emissions on land cover maps impacts the SOA burden in the atmosphere. With our model system we are able to quantify that impact. References: Guenther et al. (2006), Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 3181-3210, doi:10.5194/acp-6-3181-2006. Jung et al. (2006), Exploiting synergies of global land cover products for carbon cycle modeling, Rem. Sens. Environm., 101, 534-553, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2006.01.020.

  16. Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol-climate model intercomparison studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.; Ghan, S. J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, P.-L.; Rasch, P. J.; Neubauer, D.; Lohmann, U.

    2014-08-01

    Nudging as an assimilation technique has seen increased use in recent years in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity of simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on long-wave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations, and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. Results from both CAM5 and a second aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 also indicate that compared to the wind-and-temperature nudging, constraining only winds leads to better agreement with the free-running model in terms of the estimated shortwave cloud forcing and the simulated convective activities. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a

  17. Aerosol Indirect Effects on Cirrus Clouds in Global Aerosol-Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, X.; Zhang, K.; Wang, Y.; Neubauer, D.; Lohmann, U.; Ferrachat, S.; Zhou, C.; Penner, J.; Barahona, D.; Shi, X.

    2015-12-01

    Cirrus clouds play an important role in regulating the Earth's radiative budget and water vapor distribution in the upper troposphere. Aerosols can act as solution droplets or ice nuclei that promote ice nucleation in cirrus clouds. Anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel and biomass burning activities have substantially perturbed and enhanced concentrations of aerosol particles in the atmosphere. Global aerosol-climate models (GCMs) have now been used to quantify the radiative forcing and effects of aerosols on cirrus clouds (IPCC AR5). However, the estimate uncertainty is very large due to the different representation of ice cloud formation and evolution processes in GCMs. In addition, large discrepancies have been found between model simulations in terms of the spatial distribution of ice-nucleating aerosols, relative humidity, and temperature fluctuations, which contribute to different estimates of the aerosol indirect effect through cirrus clouds. In this presentation, four GCMs with the start-of-the art representations of cloud microphysics and aerosol-cloud interactions are used to estimate the aerosol indirect effects on cirrus clouds and to identify the causes of the discrepancies. The estimated global and annual mean anthropogenic aerosol indirect effect through cirrus clouds ranges from 0.1 W m-2 to 0.3 W m-2 in terms of the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) net radiation flux, and 0.5-0.6 W m-2 for the TOA longwave flux. Despite the good agreement on global mean, large discrepancies are found at the regional scale. The physics behind the aerosol indirect effect is dramatically different. Our analysis suggests that burden of ice-nucleating aerosols in the upper troposphere, ice nucleation frequency, and relative role of ice formation processes (i.e., homogeneous versus heterogeneous nucleation) play key roles in determining the characteristics of the simulated aerosol indirect effects. In addition to the indirect effect estimate, we also use field campaign

  18. Neutral and charged binary sulfate aerosol nucleation in the aerosol-climate modeling system ECHAM5-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kazil, J.; Kokkola, H.

    2007-12-01

    Aerosol particles play an important role in the Earth's atmosphere and in the climate system: Aerosols scatter and absorb solar radiation, facilitate heterogeneous and multiphase chemistry, and change cloud characteristics in many ways. Aerosol particles can be directly emitted from surface sources (primary aerosol) or form from the gas phase (secondary aerosol). Secondary aerosol formation can significantly increase concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei. Two important pathways of aerosol formation from the gas phase are neutral and charged binary nucleation of sulfuric acid and water. We have introduced laboratory data based representations of these pathways into the aerosol-climate modeling system ECHAM5-HAM, and investigate their relative importance and spatial distribution in the troposphere, and discuss ramifications for processes in the Earth's atmosphere.

  19. Black carbon concentration and deposition estimations in Finland by the regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hienola, A. I.; Pietikäinen, J.-P.; Jacob, D.; Pozdun, R.; Petäjä, T.; Hyvärinen, A.-P.; Sogacheva, L.; Kerminen, V.-M.; Kulmala, M.; Laaksonen, A.

    2013-04-01

    The prediction skill of the regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM was assessed against the black carbon (BC) concentration measurements from five locations in Finland, with focus on Hyytiälä station for the year 2005. We examined to what extent the model is able to reproduce the measurements using several statistical tools: median comparison, overlap coefficient (OVL; the common area under two probability distributions curves) and Z score (a measure of standard deviation, shape and spread of the distributions). The results of the statistics showed that the model is biased low. The local and regional emissions of BC have a significant contribution, and the model tendency to flatten the observed BC is most likely dominated by the lack of domestic burning of biofuel in the emission inventories. A further examination of the precipitation data from both measurements and model showed that there is no correlation between REMO's excessive precipitation and BC underestimation. This suggests that the excessive wet removal is not the main cause of the low black carbon concentration output. In addition, a comparison of wind directions in relation with high black carbon concentrations shows that REMO-HAM is able to predict the BC source directions relatively well. Cumulative black carbon deposition fluxes over Finland were estimated, including the deposition on snow.

  20. Black carbon concentration and deposition estimations in Finland by the regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hienola, A. I.; Pietikäinen, J.-P.; Jacob, D.; Pozdun, R.; Petäjä, T.; Hyvärinen, A.-P.; Kerminen, V.-M.; Kulmala, M.; Laaksonen, A.

    2012-09-01

    The prediction skill of the regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM was assessed against the black carbon (BC) concentration measurements from five locations in Finland, with focus on Hyytiälä station for the year 2005. We examined to what extent the model is able to reproduce the measurements using several statistical tools: median comparison, overlap coefficient OVL (the common area under two probability distributions curves) and Z-score (a measure of standard deviation, shape and spread of the distributions). The results of the statistics showed that the model is biased low, suggesting either an excessive loss of black carbon in the model, or missing emissions. A further examination of the precipitation data from both measurements and model showed that there is no correlation between REMO's excessive precipitation and BC underestimation. This suggests that the excessive wet removal is not the main cause for the low black carbon concentration output. In addition, a comparison of wind directions in relation with high black carbon concentrations shows that REMO-HAM is able to predict the BC source directions relatively well. Cumulative black carbon deposition fluxes over Finland were estimated, including the deposition on snow.

  1. An improvement on the dust emission scheme in the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, T.; Peng, Y.; Feichter, J.; Tegen, I.

    2007-09-01

    Formulation of the dust emission scheme in the global aerosol-climate modeling system ECHAM5-HAM has been improved. Modifications on the surface aerodynamic roughness length, soil moisture and East-Asian soil properties are included in the parameterization, which result in a large impact on the threshold wind friction velocity for aeolian erosion and thus influence the simulated dust emission amount. The annual global mean of dust emission in the year 2000 is reduced by 76.5% and 2.2%, respectively, due to changes in the aerodynamic roughness length and the soil moisture. An inclusion of detailed East-Asian soil properties leads to an increase of 16.6% in the annual global mean of dust emission, which exhibits mainly in the arid and semi-arid areas of northern China and southern Mongolia. Reasonable values of annual global mean of dust emission, dust burden and total aerosol optical thickness can be obtained in the improved model. In addition, measurements of the surface dust concentrations are collected in dust source regions of East Asia, and verify a more realistic spatial distribution of dust emission in the improved model.

  2. An improvement on the dust emission scheme in the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, T.; Peng, Y.; Feichter, J.; Tegen, I.

    2008-02-01

    Formulation of the dust emission scheme in the global aerosol-climate modeling system ECHAM5-HAM has been improved. Modifications on the surface aerodynamic roughness length, soil moisture and East-Asian soil properties are included in the parameterization, which result in a large impact on the threshold wind friction velocity for aeolian erosion and thus influence the simulated dust emission amount. The annual global mean of dust emission in the year 2000 is reduced by 76.5% and 2.2%, respectively, due to changes in the aerodynamic roughness length and the soil moisture. An inclusion of detailed East-Asian soil properties leads to an increase of 16.6% in the annual global mean of dust emission, which exhibits mainly in the arid and semi-arid areas of northern China and southern Mongolia. Measurements of the surface dust concentrations are collected in remote marine sites globally and in dust source regions of East Asia. The averaged relative differences between model results and measurements are reduced from 17% to 12% in global remote marine sites and from 69% to 30% in East Asia, by including the improvements. Comparisons between model results and available measurements verify a more realistic dust distribution with the improved emission scheme.

  3. Biases in modeled surface snow BC mixing ratios in prescribed-aerosol climate model runs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doherty, S. J.; Bitz, C. M.; Flanner, M. G.

    2014-11-01

    Black carbon (BC) in snow lowers its albedo, increasing the absorption of sunlight, leading to positive radiative forcing, climate warming and earlier snowmelt. A series of recent studies have used prescribed-aerosol deposition flux fields in climate model runs to assess the forcing by black carbon in snow. In these studies, the prescribed mass deposition flux of BC to surface snow is decoupled from the mass deposition flux of snow water to the surface. Here we compare prognostic- and prescribed-aerosol runs and use a series of offline calculations to show that the prescribed-aerosol approach results, on average, in a factor of about 1.5-2.5 high bias in annual-mean surface snow BC mixing ratios in three key regions for snow albedo forcing by BC: Greenland, Eurasia and North America. These biases will propagate directly to positive biases in snow and surface albedo reduction by BC. The bias is shown be due to coupling snowfall that varies on meteorological timescales (daily or shorter) with prescribed BC mass deposition fluxes that are more temporally and spatially smooth. The result is physically non-realistic mixing ratios of BC in surface snow. We suggest that an alternative approach would be to prescribe BC mass mixing ratios in snowfall, rather than BC mass fluxes, and we show that this produces more physically realistic BC mixing ratios in snowfall and in the surface snow layer.

  4. New developments in the representation of Saharan dust sources in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heinold, B.; Tegen, I.; Schepanski, K.; Banks, J. R.

    2015-09-01

    In the aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2, dust source activation (DSA) observations from Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite are proposed to replace the original source area parameterization over the Sahara Desert. The new setup is tested in nudged simulations for the period 2007 to 2008. The evaluation is based on comparisons to dust emission events inferred from MSG dust index imagery, AERONET sun photometer observations, and satellite retrievals of aerosol optical thickness (AOT). The model results agree well with AERONET measurements. Good correlations between model results and MSG-SEVIRI dust AOT as well as Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MISR) AOT indicate that also the spatial dust distribution is well reproduced. ECHAM6-HAM2 computes a more realistic geographical distribution and up to 20 % higher annual Saharan dust emissions, using the MSG-based source map. The representation of dust AOT is partly improved in the southern Sahara and Sahel. In addition, the spatial variability is increased towards a better agreement with observations depending on the season. Thus, using the MSG DSA map can help to circumvent the issue of uncertain soil input parameters. An important issue remains the need to improve the model representation of moist convection and stable nighttime conditions. Compared to sub-daily DSA information from MSG-SEVIRI and results from a regional model, ECHAM6-HAM2 notably underestimates the important fraction of morning dust events by the breakdown of the nocturnal low-level jet, while a major contribution is from afternoon-to-evening emissions.

  5. New developments in the representation of Saharan dust sources in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heinold, Bernd; Tegen, Ina; Schepanski, Kerstin; Banks, Jamie R.

    2016-02-01

    In the aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2, dust source activation (DSA) observations from Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite are proposed to replace the original source area parameterization over the Sahara Desert. The new setup is tested in nudged simulations for the period 2007 to 2008. The evaluation is based on comparisons to dust emission events inferred from MSG dust index imagery, Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometer observations, and satellite retrievals of aerosol optical thickness (AOT).The model results agree well with AERONET measurements especially in terms of seasonal variability, and a good spatial correlation was found between model results and MSG-SEVIRI (Spinning-Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager) dust AOT as well as Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) AOT. ECHAM6-HAM2 computes a more realistic geographical distribution and up to 20 % higher annual Saharan dust emissions, using the MSG-based source map. The representation of dust AOT is partly improved in the southern Sahara and Sahel. In addition, the spatial variability is increased towards a better agreement with observations depending on the season. Thus, using the MSG DSA map can help to circumvent the issue of uncertain soil input parameters.An important issue remains the need to improve the model representation of moist convection and stable nighttime conditions. Compared to sub-daily DSA information from MSG-SEVIRI and results from a regional model, ECHAM6-HAM2 notably underestimates the important fraction of morning dust events by the breakdown of the nocturnal low-level jet, while a major contribution is from afternoon-to-evening emissions.

  6. Sulfate aerosol nucleation, primary emissions, and cloud radiative forcing in the aerosol- climate model ECHAM5-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kazil, J.; Quaas, J.; Kinne, S.; Rast, S.; Stier, P.; Feichter, J.

    2008-12-01

    Aerosol nucleation from the gas phase is a major source of aerosol particles in the Earth's atmosphere, contributing to the number of cloud condensation nuclei and consequently of cloud droplets. Nucleation can therefore act upon cloud radiative properties, cloud lifetimes, and precipitation rates via the first and second indirect aerosol effect. However, freshly nucleated particles measure a few nanometers in diameter, and need to grow to sizes of tens of nanometers in order to participate in atmospherically relevant processes. Depending on the availability of condensable molecules, this process may proceed on time scales between minutes to days. Concurrently, the aerosol particles that formed from the gas phase compete with aerosol particles emitted from the surface for condensable material. Therefore, cloud radiative properties, cloud lifetimes, and precipitation rates will depend to various degrees on aerosol nucleation rates and on the individual nucleation pathways. We have implemented a scheme describing the formation of new particles from the gas phase based on laboratory thermochemical data for neutral and charged nucleation of sulfuric acid and water into the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM. Here we discuss the role of new particle formation from the gas phase for cloud radiative properties and the contributions of the considered nucleation pathways as well as of particulate sulfate emissions. Our simulations show that sulfate aerosol nucleation plays an important role for cloud radiative forcing, in particular over the oceans and in the southern hemisphere. A comparison of the simulated cloud radiative forcing with satellite observations shows the best agreement when both neutral and charged nucleation proceed, with neutral nucleation playing a minor role in the current model version. In contrast, switching off nucleation leads to a systematic bias of the results away from the observations, indicating an important role of aerosol nucleation in the

  7. Evaluation of the sectional aerosol microphysics module SALSA implementation in ECHAM5-HAM aerosol-climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bergman, T.; Kerminen, V.-M.; Korhonen, H.; Lehtinen, K. J.; Makkonen, R.; Arola, A.; Mielonen, T.; Romakkaniemi, S.; Kulmala, M.; Kokkola, H.

    2011-12-01

    We present the implementation and evaluation of a sectional aerosol microphysics model SALSA within the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM. This aerosol microphysics module has been designed to be flexible and computationally efficient so that it can be implemented in regional or global scale models. The computational efficiency has been achieved by keeping the number of variables needed to describe the size and composition distribution to the minimum. The aerosol size distribution is described using 20 size sections with 10 size sections in size space which cover diameters ranging from 3 nm to 10 μm divided to three subranges each having distinct optimised process and compound selection. The ability of the module to describe the global aerosol properties was evaluated by comparison against (1) measured continental and marine size distributions, (2) observed variability of continental modal number concentrations, (3) measured sulphate, organic carbon, black carbon and sea salt mass concentrations, (4) observations of AOD and other aerosol optical properties from satellites and AERONET network, (5) global aerosol budgets and concentrations from previous model studies, and (6) model results using M7 which is the default aerosol microphysics module in ECHAM5-HAM. The evaluation shows that the global aerosol properties can be reproduced reasonably well using the coarse resolution of 10 size sections in size space. The simulated global aerosol budgets are within the range of previous studies. Surface concentrations of sea salt, sulphate and carbonaceous species have an annual mean within a factor of five of the observations, while the simulated sea salt concentrations reproduce the observations less accurately and show high variability. Regionally, AOD is in relatively good agreement with the observations (within a factor of two). At mid-latitudes the observed AOD is captured well, while at high-latitudes as well as in some polluted and dust regions the modeled AOD is

  8. Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol-climate model intercomparison studies

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.; Ghan, S. J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, P.-L.; Rasch, P. J.

    2014-04-24

    Nudging is an assimilation technique widely used in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity of simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosolmore » concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on longwave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy for the investigation of aerosol indirect effects through ice clouds, since it provides well-constrained meteorology without strongly perturbing the model's mean climate.« less

  9. Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol-climate model intercomparison studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.; Ghan, S. J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, P.-L.; Rasch, P. J.

    2014-04-01

    Nudging is an assimilation technique widely used in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity of simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on longwave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy for the investigation of aerosol indirect effects through ice clouds, since it provides well-constrained meteorology without strongly perturbing the model's mean climate.

  10. Technical Note: On the Use of Nudging for Aerosol-Climate Model Intercomparison Studies

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Kai; Wan, Hui; Liu, Xiaohong; Ghan, Steven J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, Po-Lun; Rasch, Philip J.; Neubauer, David; Lohmann, U.

    2014-08-26

    Nudging is an assimilation technique widely used in the development and evaluation of climate models. Con- straining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the artificial forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the relatively strong sensitivity of homogeneous ice nucleation to aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on longwave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. This suggests that nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy, especially for studies that involve both warm and cold clouds.

  11. Constraining Carbonaceous Aerosol Climate Forcing by Bridging Laboratory, Field and Modeling Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dubey, M. K.; Aiken, A. C.; Liu, S.; Saleh, R.; Cappa, C. D.; Williams, L. R.; Donahue, N. M.; Gorkowski, K.; Ng, N. L.; Mazzoleni, C.; China, S.; Sharma, N.; Yokelson, R. J.; Allan, J. D.; Liu, D.

    2014-12-01

    Biomass and fossil fuel combustion emits black (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) aerosols that absorb sunlight to warm climate and organic carbon (OC) aerosols that scatter sunlight to cool climate. The net forcing depends strongly on the composition, mixing state and transformations of these carbonaceous aerosols. Complexities from large variability of fuel types, combustion conditions and aging processes have confounded their treatment in models. We analyse recent laboratory and field measurements to uncover fundamental mechanism that control the chemical, optical and microphysical properties of carbonaceous aerosols that are elaborated below: Wavelength dependence of absorption and the single scattering albedo (ω) of fresh biomass burning aerosols produced from many fuels during FLAME-4 was analysed to determine the factors that control the variability in ω. Results show that ω varies strongly with fire-integrated modified combustion efficiency (MCEFI)—higher MCEFI results in lower ω values and greater spectral dependence of ω (Liu et al GRL 2014). A parameterization of ω as a function of MCEFI for fresh BB aerosols is derived from the laboratory data and is evaluated by field data, including BBOP. Our laboratory studies also demonstrate that BrC production correlates with BC indicating that that they are produced by a common mechanism that is driven by MCEFI (Saleh et al NGeo 2014). We show that BrC absorption is concentrated in the extremely low volatility component that favours long-range transport. We observe substantial absorption enhancement for internally mixed BC from diesel and wood combustion near London during ClearFlo. While the absorption enhancement is due to BC particles coated by co-emitted OC in urban regions, it increases with photochemical age in rural areas and is simulated by core-shell models. We measure BrC absorption that is concentrated in the extremely low volatility components and attribute it to wood burning. Our results support

  12. Indian monsoon and the elevated-heat-pump mechanism in a coupled aerosol-climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Errico, Miriam; Cagnazzo, Chiara; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Lau, William K. M.; Hardenberg, Jost; Fierli, Federico; Cherchi, Annalisa

    2015-09-01

    A coupled aerosol-atmosphere-ocean-sea ice climate model is used to explore the interaction between aerosols and the Indian summer monsoon precipitation on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. Results show that when increased aerosol loading is found on the Himalayas slopes in the premonsoon period (April-May), intensification of early monsoon rainfall over India and increased low-level westerly flow follow, in agreement with the elevated-heat-pump mechanism. The increase in rainfall during the early monsoon season has a cooling effect on the land surface. In the same period, enhanced surface cooling may also be amplified through solar dimming by more cloudiness and aerosol loading, via increased dust transported by low-level westerly flow. The surface cooling causes subsequent reduction in monsoon rainfall in July-August over India. The time-lagged nature of the reasonably realistic response of the model to aerosol forcing suggests that absorbing aerosols, besides their potential key roles in impacting monsoon water cycle and climate, may influence the seasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon.

  13. Aerosol nucleation and its role for clouds and Earth's radiative forcing in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kazil, J.; Stier, P.; Zhang, K.; Quaas, J.; Kinne, S.; O'Donnell, D.; Rast, S.; Esch, M.; Ferrachat, S.; Lohmann, U.; Feichter, J.

    2010-11-01

    Nucleation from the gas phase is an important source of aerosol particles in the Earth's atmosphere, contributing to the number of cloud condensation nuclei, which form cloud droplets. We have implemented in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM a new scheme for neutral and charged nucleation of sulfuric acid and water based on laboratory data, and nucleation of an organic compound and sulfuric acid using a parametrization of cluster activation based on field measurements. We give details of the implementation, compare results with observations, and investigate the role of the individual aerosol nucleation mechanisms for clouds and the Earth's radiative forcing. The results of our simulations are most consistent with observations when neutral and charged nucleation of sulfuric acid proceed throughout the troposphere and nucleation due to cluster activation is limited to the forested boundary layer. The globally averaged annual mean contributions of the individual nucleation processes to total absorbed solar short-wave radiation via the direct, semi-direct, indirect cloud-albedo and cloud-lifetime effects in our simulations are -1.15 W/m2 for charged H2SO4/H2O nucleation, -0.235 W/m2 for cluster activation, and -0.05 W/m2 for neutral H2SO4/H2O nucleation. The overall effect of nucleation is -2.55 W/m2, which exceeds the sum of the individual terms due to feedbacks and interactions in the model. Aerosol nucleation contributes over the oceans with -2.18 W/m2 to total absorbed solar short-wave radiation, compared to -0.37 W/m2 over land. We explain the higher effect of aerosol nucleation on Earth's radiative forcing over the oceans with the larger area covered by ocean clouds, due to the larger contrast in albedo between clouds and the ocean surface compared to continents, and the larger susceptibility of pristine clouds owing to the saturation of effects. The large effect of charged nucleation in our simulations is not in contradiction with small effects seen in local

  14. Aerosol nucleation and its role for clouds and Earth's radiative forcing in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kazil, J.; Stier, P.; Zhang, K.; Quaas, J.; Kinne, S.; O'Donnell, D.; Rast, S.; Esch, M.; Ferrachat, S.; Lohmann, U.; Feichter, J.

    2010-05-01

    Nucleation from the gas phase is an important source of aerosol particles in the Earth's atmosphere, contributing to the number of cloud condensation nuclei, which form cloud droplets. We have implemented in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM a new scheme for neutral and charged nucleation of sulfuric acid and water based on laboratory data, and nucleation of an organic compound and sulfuric acid using a parametrization of cluster activation based on field measurements. We give details of the implementation, compare results with observations, and investigate the role of the individual aerosol nucleation mechanisms for clouds and the Earth's radiative budget. The results of our simulations are most consistent with observations when neutral and charged nucleation of sulfuric acid proceed throughout the troposphere and nucleation due to cluster activation is limited to the forested boundary layer. The globally averaged annual mean contributions of the individual nucleation processes to total absorbed solar short-wave radiation via the direct, semi-direct, indirect cloud-albedo and cloud-lifetime effects in our simulations are -1.15 W/m2 for charged H2SO4/H2O nucleation, -0.235 W/m2 for cluster activation, and -0.05 W/m2 for neutral H2SO4/H2O nucleation. The overall effect of nucleation is -2.55 W/m2, which exceeds the sum of the individual terms due to feedbacks and interactions in the model. Aerosol nucleation contributes over the oceans with -2.18 W/m2 to total absorbed solar short-wave radiation, compared to -0.37 W/m2 over land. We explain the higher effect of aerosol nucleation on Earth's radiative budget over the oceans with the larger area covered by ocean clouds, due to the larger contrast in albedo between clouds and the ocean surface compared to continents, and the larger susceptibility of pristine clouds owing to the saturation of effects. The large effect of charged nucleation in our simulations is not in contradiction with small effects seen in local

  15. Evaluation of the sectional aerosol microphysics module SALSA implementation in ECHAM5-HAM aerosol-climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bergman, T.; Kerminen, V.-M.; Korhonen, H.; Lehtinen, K. J.; Makkonen, R.; Arola, A.; Mielonen, T.; Romakkaniemi, S.; Kulmala, M.; Kokkola, H.

    2012-06-01

    We present the implementation and evaluation of a sectional aerosol microphysics module SALSA within the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM. This aerosol microphysics module has been designed to be flexible and computationally efficient so that it can be implemented in regional or global scale models. The computational efficiency has been achieved by minimising the number of variables needed to describe the size and composition distribution. The aerosol size distribution is described using 10 size classes with parallel sections which can have different chemical compositions. Thus in total, the module tracks 20 size sections which cover diameters ranging from 3 nm to 10 μm and are divided into three subranges, each with an optimised selection of processes and compounds. The implementation of SALSA into ECHAM5-HAM includes the main aerosol processes in the atmosphere: emissions, removal, radiative effects, liquid and gas phase sulphate chemistry, and the aerosol microphysics. The aerosol compounds treated in the module are sulphate, organic carbon, sea salt, black carbon, and mineral dust. In its default configuration, ECHAM5-HAM treats aerosol size distribution using the modal method. In this implementation, the aerosol processes were converted to be used in a sectional model framework. The ability of the module to describe the global aerosol properties was evaluated by comparing against (1) measured continental and marine size distributions, (2) observed variability of continental number concentrations, (3) measured sulphate, organic carbon, black carbon and sea-salt mass concentrations, (4) observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and other aerosol optical properties from satellites and AERONET network, (5) global aerosol budgets and concentrations from previous model studies, and (6) model results using M7, which is the default aerosol microphysics module in ECHAM5-HAM. The evaluation shows that the global aerosol properties can be reproduced reasonably well

  16. Analysis of nucleation events in the European boundary layer using the regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM with a solar radiation-driven OH-proxy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pietikäinen, J.-P.; Mikkonen, S.; Hamed, A.; Hienola, A. I.; Birmili, W.; Kulmala, M.; Laaksonen, A.

    2014-11-01

    This work describes improvements in the regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM in order to simulate more realistically the process of atmospheric new particle formation (NPF). A new scheme was implemented to simulate OH radical concentrations using a proxy approach based on observations and also accounting for the effects of clouds upon OH concentrations. Second, the nucleation rate calculation was modified to directly simulate the formation rates of 3 nm particles, which removes some unnecessary steps in the formation rate calculations used earlier in the model. Using the updated model version, NPF over Europe was simulated for the periods 2003-2004 and 2008-2009. The statistics of the simulated particle formation events were subsequently compared to observations from 13 ground-based measurement sites. The new model shows improved agreement with the observed NPF rates compared to former versions and can simulate the event statistics realistically for most parts of Europe.

  17. Analysis of nucleation events in the European boundary layer using the regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM with a solar radiation-driven OH-proxy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pietikäinen, J.-P.; Mikkonen, S.; Hamed, A.; Hienola, A. I.; Birmili, W.; Kulmala, M.; Laaksonen, A.

    2014-04-01

    This work describes improvements in the regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM in order to simulate more realistically the process of atmospheric new particle formation (NPF). As a first modification, a new scheme was implemented to simulate OH radical concentrations, now using a proxy approach based on observations and also accounting for the effects of clouds upon OH concentrations. Second, the nucleation rate calculation was modified to directly simulate the formation rates of 3 nm particles, which removes some unnecessary steps in formation rate calculations used earlier in the model. Using the updated model version, the NPF over Europe was simulated for the comprehensive periods 2003-2004 and 2008-2009. The statistics of the simulated particle formation events were subsequently compared to observations from 13 ground-based measurement sites. The new model shows improved agreement with the observed NPF rates compared to former versions and can simulate the event statistics realistically for most parts of Europe. It is our conclusion that further modifications of the OH proxy that reflect the diverse atmospheric composition across Europe have the potential to further improvements.

  18. Evaluation of simulated aerosol properties with the aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM using observations from the IMPACT field campaign

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roelofs, G.-J.; ten Brink, H.; Kiendler-Scharr, A.; de Leeuw, G.; Mensah, A.; Minikin, A.; Otjes, R.

    2010-08-01

    In May 2008, the measurement campaign IMPACT for observation of atmospheric aerosol and cloud properties was conducted in Cabauw, The Netherlands. With a nudged version of the coupled aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM we simulate the size distribution and chemical composition of the aerosol and the associated aerosol optical thickness (AOT) for the campaign period. Synoptic scale meteorology is represented realistically through nudging of the vorticity, the divergence, the temperature and the surface pressure. Simulated concentrations of aerosol sulfate and organics at the surface are generally within a factor of two from observed values. The monthly averaged AOT from the model is 0.33, about 20% larger than observed. For selected periods of the month with relatively dry and moist conditions discrepancies are approximately -30% and +15%, respectively. Discrepancies during the dry period are partly caused by inaccurate representation of boundary layer (BL) dynamics by the model affecting the simulated AOT. The model simulates too strong exchange between the BL and the free troposphere, resulting in weaker concentration gradients at the BL top than observed for aerosol and humidity, while upward mixing from the surface layers into the BL appears to be underestimated. The results indicate that beside aerosol sulfate and organics also aerosol ammonium and nitrate significantly contribute to aerosol water uptake. The simulated day-to-day variability of AOT follows synoptic scale advection of humidity rather than particle concentration. Even for relatively dry conditions AOT appears to be strongly influenced by the diurnal cycle of RH in the lower boundary layer, further enhanced by uptake and release of nitric acid and ammonia by aerosol water.

  19. The assessment of climatology of absorbing aerosol field with integration of aerosol-climate model, and ground-based and satellite remote sensing measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeong, G.; Wang, C.; Mahowald, N. M.; Rigby, M. L.; Martins, J.

    2009-12-01

    Absorbing aerosols play important roles in the Earth’s radiation budget and atmospheric circulation by absorbing sunlight and heating the atmosphere while cooling the surface. The strength of such effects depends on microphysical processes in the lifecycle of absorbing aerosols and their emissions to the atmosphere. Even though the knowledge of aerosol controlling processes and the techniques measuring aerosol properties have been greatly advanced, there are still significant gaps between model results and measurement data. The goal of this study is to minimize the model-observation discrepancy and to assess global 3-D absorbing aerosol fields. To achieve this goal, we investigate the errors related to aerosol models and measurements, and optimize the emissions of anthropogenic absorbing aerosols (BC) used in the models. In this study we first derive the aerosol optical depth (AOD) and absorbing aerosol optical depth (AAOD) of anthropogenic aerosols using the 3-D interactive aerosol-climate model [Kim et al., 2008] developed based on NCAR CAM3, running in an aerosol-transport-model (ATM) driven by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (2001~2003). Aerosol transformation in the atmosphere is fully considered in this model. We also derived the AOD and AAOD of dust aerosols based on the climatology from the Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH) driven by the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data [Mahowald et al., 1997; Kistler et al., 2001]. In addition, the climatology (10-year mean) of the CAM3 sea salt model (Mahowald et al., 2006) is used to calculate the AOD of sea salt aerosols. An inverse modeling technique (Kalman filtering) is used to optimize the emissions of BC aerosols by minimizing the model-observation discrepancy of AAOD, and the emissions of anthropogenic organic carbon (OC) aerosols and SO2 by minimizing the model-observation discrepancy of AOD. Initial estimates of carbonaceous aerosol emission due to fossil fuel are taken from the MIT EPPA model and Bond

  20. Spatial distributions and seasonal cycles of aerosol climate effects in India seen in a global climate-aerosol model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henriksson, S. V.; Pietikäinen, J.-P.; Hyvärinen, A.-P.; Räisänen, P.; Kupiainen, K.; Tonttila, J.; Hooda, R.; Lihavainen, H.; O'Donnell, D.; Backman, L.; Klimont, Z.; Laaksonen, A.

    2014-09-01

    Climate-aerosol interactions in India are studied by employing the global climate-aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM and the GAINS inventory for anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Model validation is done for black carbon surface concentrations in Mukteshwar and for features of the monsoon circulation. Seasonal cycles and spatial distributions of radiative forcing and the temperature and rainfall responses are presented for different model setups. While total aerosol radiative forcing is strongest in the summer, anthropogenic forcing is considerably stronger in winter than in summer. Local seasonal temperature anomalies caused by aerosols are mostly negative with some exceptions, e.g., parts of northern India in March-May. Rainfall increases due to the elevated heat pump (EHP) mechanism and decreases due to solar dimming mechanisms (SDMs) and the relative strengths of these effects during different seasons and for different model setups are studied. Aerosol light absorption does increase rainfall in northern India, but effects due to solar dimming and circulation work to cancel the increase. The total aerosol effect on rainfall is negative for northern India in the months of June-August, but during March-May the effect is positive for most model setups. These differences between responses in different seasons might help converge the ongoing debate on the EHPs and SDMs. Due to the complexity of the problem and known or potential sources for error and bias, the results should be interpreted cautiously as they are completely dependent on how realistic the model is. Aerosol-rainfall correlations and anticorrelations are shown not to be a reliable sole argument for deducing causality.

  1. Global simulations of BVOC-aerosol-climate feedbacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Makkonen, Risto; Egill Kristjánsson, Jón; Kirkevåg, Alf; Seland, Øyvind; Iversen, Trond; Kerminen, Veli-Matti; Kulmala, Markku

    2015-04-01

    The terrestrial emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) is modulated by several climate variables. Since the emitted BVOCs influence atmospheric aerosol formation and the respective aerosol forcing, there are several potential aerosol-climate feedback mechanisms which operate via BVOC emissions. Increased aerosol loading will increase the amount of diffuse radiation with respect to global radiation, leading to increased photosynthesis. On the other hand, an increase in BVOC emission could increase concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), leading to changes in cloud albedo and cloud dynamics. We have developed the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) to capture the necessary processes and interactions in order to describe BVOC-climate-feedbacks. BVOC emissions are calculated online by the MEGAN algorithm, and secondary organic aerosol formation from monoterpene and isoprene is accounted for. The developed coupled model is used to simulate the climate feedbacks with various idealized perturbations, including doubled/quadrupled CO2 concentration and decreasing anthropogenic aerosol emission. Equilibrium simulations with doubled CO2 show an increase of monoterpene emission by 20% globally, leading to increase in aerosol growth, aerosol loading and CCN concentration. Simulations indicate an overall negative BVOC-aerosol-climate feedback, which could act to reduce the future climate warming. However, the magnitude of the feedback is highly sensitive to the spatial distribution of the initial perturbation, applied BVOC emission parameters, and the underlying assumptions of SOA formation processes.

  2. The Impact of humidity above stratiform clouds on indirect aerosol climate forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Ackerman, A S; Kirkpatrick, M P; Stevens, D E; Toon, O B

    2004-12-20

    Some of the global warming effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases is offset by increased solar reflection from clouds with smaller droplets that form on increased numbers of cloud condensation nuclei in polluted air. The global magnitude of the resulting indirect aerosol climate forcing is estimated to be comparable (and opposed) to the anthropogenic carbon dioxide forcing, but estimates are highly uncertain because of complexities in characterizing the physical process that determine global aerosol and cloud populations and their interactions. Beyond reflecting sunlight more effectively, smaller droplets are less efficient at producing precipitation, and decreased precipitation is expected to result in increased cloud water and cloud cover, further increasing the indirect forcing. Yet polluted marine boundary-layer clouds are not generally observed to hold more water. Here we use model simulations of stratocumulus clouds to show that suppression of precipitation from increased droplet concentrations leads to increased cloud water only when sufficient precipitation reaches the surface, a condition favored when the overlying air is moist. Otherwise, aerosol induced suppression of precipitation enhances entrainment of overlying dry air, thereby reducing cloud water and diminishing the indirect climate forcing.

  3. Aerosol Climate Time Series in ESA Aerosol_cci

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Popp, Thomas; de Leeuw, Gerrit; Pinnock, Simon

    2016-04-01

    Within the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) Aerosol_cci (2010 - 2017) conducts intensive work to improve algorithms for the retrieval of aerosol information from European sensors. Meanwhile, full mission time series of 2 GCOS-required aerosol parameters are completely validated and released: Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from dual view ATSR-2 / AATSR radiometers (3 algorithms, 1995 - 2012), and stratospheric extinction profiles from star occultation GOMOS spectrometer (2002 - 2012). Additionally, a 35-year multi-sensor time series of the qualitative Absorbing Aerosol Index (AAI) together with sensitivity information and an AAI model simulator is available. Complementary aerosol properties requested by GCOS are in a "round robin" phase, where various algorithms are inter-compared: fine mode AOD, mineral dust AOD (from the thermal IASI spectrometer, but also from ATSR instruments and the POLDER sensor), absorption information and aerosol layer height. As a quasi-reference for validation in few selected regions with sparse ground-based observations the multi-pixel GRASP algorithm for the POLDER instrument is used. Validation of first dataset versions (vs. AERONET, MAN) and inter-comparison to other satellite datasets (MODIS, MISR, SeaWIFS) proved the high quality of the available datasets comparable to other satellite retrievals and revealed needs for algorithm improvement (for example for higher AOD values) which were taken into account for a reprocessing. The datasets contain pixel level uncertainty estimates which were also validated and improved in the reprocessing. For the three ATSR algorithms the use of an ensemble method was tested. The paper will summarize and discuss the status of dataset reprocessing and validation. The focus will be on the ATSR, GOMOS and IASI datasets. Pixel level uncertainties validation will be summarized and discussed including unknown components and their potential usefulness and limitations. Opportunities for time series extension

  4. From MODIS to VIIRS: Steps toward continuing the dark-target aerosol climate data record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levy, R. C.; Mattoo, S.; Liu, H.; Munchak, L. A.; Laszlo, I.; Cronk, H.

    2012-12-01

    By this fall-2012 AGU meeting, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) has been flying on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites for 13 years and 10.5 years, respectively. During this time, the MODIS Aerosol Science Team has fine-tuned the aerosol retrieval algorithms and data processing protocols, resulting in a highly robust, stable and usable aerosol product. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) product has been validated extensively, and the MODIS-retrieved environmental data record (EDR) is becoming a strong foundation for creating an aerosol climate data record (CDR). With last year's launch of the Visible and Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) aboard Suomi-NPP, the VIIRS-derived aerosol product has been designed to continue that provided by MODIS. VIIRS and MODIS have similar orbital mechanics and provide similar spectral resolution with similar spatial resolution. At the same time, the VIIRS and MODIS aerosol algorithms have similar physical assumptions. In fact, the initial validation exercises suggest that, in general, the VIIRS aerosol product is performing well, and that the expected error for the VIIRS-derived AOD is similar to that reported by MODIS. Although VIIRS should be able to derive an aerosol product similar in quality to MODIS, can the VIIRS aerosol record be "stitched" together with the MODIS record? To answer this question, instead of qualifying how similar they are, we need to quantify how their differences can and do impact the resulting aerosol products. There are instrumental differences, such as orbit altitude (805km versus 705km), spatial resolution (375m/750m versus 250m/500m/1000m), spectral differences, and sampling differences). There are pre-processing differences (cloud masking, gas correction assumptions, pixel selection protocols). There are retrieval algorithm differences, and of course final processing and quality control differences. Although we expect that most of differences have little or no impact, some may be

  5. Are Satellite-Retrieved Correlations Between Cloud-Top-Height and Aerosol Optical Depth Evidence of Aerosol Invigoration of Convection?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stier, P.; Gryspeerdt, E.; Grandey, B. S.; Wagner, T. M.; Kipling, Z.

    2013-12-01

    A robust negative correlation between cloud top pressure (CTP) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) has been documented in a number of studies and triggered hypotheses on aerosol invigoration of convective clouds. However, correlation based analysis is limited in its explanatory power as it does not directly establish physical causality between the correlated properties which may be cross-correlated with other meteorological factors. In this study we combine the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM with mechanistic coupling of the aerosol microphysics (HAM) to the two-moment cloud microphysics in the Convective Cloud Field Model (CCFM) and satellite data from SEVIRI, MODIS, ISCCP, CALIOP and CloudSat. CCFM explicitly simulates a spectrum of convective cloud top heights within each grid box, providing enhanced realism over traditional mass flux schemes. Consistency is established through sampling of the models at satellite overpass times and the use of ISCCP and COSP satellite simulators in the model. We employ this setup to investigate the contributions of aerosol-cloud interactions and meteorological cross-correlations to AOD--CTP correlations. Our analysis shows that a significant fraction of the observed AOD-CTP relationship is driven by the meteorological link between CTP and cloud fraction (CF), which itself is strongly linked to AOD via the humidification of aerosol in humid (hence preferentially cloudy) environments. Our results shed light on this controversial issue with potentially significant climate implications and emphasise the difficulty to constrain for meteorological variability in observational studies of aerosol-cloud interactions.

  6. A pathway analysis of global aerosol processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schutgens, Nick; Stier, Philip

    2014-05-01

    Although budgets for aerosol emission and deposition (macrophysical fluxes) have been studied before, much less is known about the budgets of processes e.g. nucleation, coagulation and condensation. A better understanding of their relative importance would improve our understanding of the aerosol system and help model development and evaluation. Aerosols are not only emitted from and deposited to the Earth's surface but are modified during their transport. The processes for these modifications include nucleation of H2SO4 gas into new aerosol, coagulation with other aerosol and condensation of H2SO4 unto existing aerosol. As a result of these processes, aerosol grow in size and change their chemical composition, often becoming hydrophilic where they were hydrophobic before. This affects their characteristics for various deposition processes (sedimentation, dry or wet deposition) as well as their radiative properties and hence climate forcing by aerosol. We present a complete budget of all aerosol processes in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM including the M7 microphysics. This model treats aerosol as 7 distinct but interacting two-moment modes of mixed species (soot, organic carbons, sulfate, sea salt and dust). We will show both global budgets as well as regional variations in dominant processes. Some of our conclusions are: condensation of H2SO4 gas onto pre-existing particles is an important process, dominating the growth of small particles in the nucleation mode to the Aitken mode and the ageing of hydrophobic matter. Together with in-cloud production of H2SO4, it significantly contributes to (and often dominates) the mass burden (and hence composition) of the hydrophilic Aitken and accumulation mode particles. Particle growth itself is the leading source of number densities in the hydrophilic Aitken and accumulation modes, with their hydrophobic counterparts contributing (even locally) relatively little. However, the coarse mode is mostly decoupled from the

  7. Are remote-sensing retrieved aerosol radiative properties a suitable proxy for cloud condensation nuclei?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stier, Philip

    2014-05-01

    Aerosol-cloud interactions arguably remain the single greatest uncertainty among anthropogenic perturbations of the climate system. The large uncertainties associated with their representation in global aerosol climate models have emphasised the need for observational studies. In-situ measurements provide a detailed description of aerosol and cloud microphysical properties, providing strong observational constraints on aerosol cloud interactions. However, their spatio-temporal sampling is sparse so that "observational" estimates of global aerosol cloud interactions generally rely on co-located satellite retrievals of aerosol radiative properties and cloud properties. In this study I will critically evaluate the suitability of remote-sensing retrieved aerosol radiative properties, such as aerosol optical depth (AOD), aerosol index (AI) and aerosol fine mode optical depth, as proxy for cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). This analysis based on the fully self-consistent calculation of aerosol radiative properties and CCN in the aerosol climate model ECHAM-HAM. Correlating simulated aerosol radiative properties with CCN at a range of supersaturations (sampling different sizes/composition of the aerosol spectrum) highlights limitations in the suitability of AOD and AI as proxy for CCN. These discrepancies arise from a range of factors, including the limited representativeness of column-integrated aerosol radiative properties for surface or cloud-base CCN as well as the effects of humidity growth of aerosols, affecting AOD/AI but not CCN. Simulated correlations show a strong regional variability, with significant implications for "observational" estimates of aerosol cloud interactions from remote-sensing as well as in-situ data.

  8. Connecting Organic Aerosol Climate-Relevant Properties to Chemical Mechanisms of Sources and Processing

    SciTech Connect

    Thornton, Joel

    2015-01-26

    The research conducted on this project aimed to improve our understanding of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation in the atmosphere, and how the properties of the SOA impact climate through its size, phase state, and optical properties. The goal of this project was to demonstrate that the use of molecular composition information to mechanistically connect source apportionment and climate properties can improve the physical basis for simulation of SOA formation and properties in climate models. The research involved developing and improving methods to provide online measurements of the molecular composition of SOA under atmospherically relevant conditions and to apply this technology to controlled simulation chamber experiments and field measurements. The science we have completed with the methodology will impact the simulation of aerosol particles in climate models.

  9. PARAGON - An Integrated Approach for Characterizing Aerosol Climate Impacts and Environmental Interactions

    SciTech Connect

    Diner, David J.; Ackerman, Thomas P.; Anderson, Theodore L.; Bosenberg, Jens; Braverman, Amy J.; Charlson, Robert J.; Collins, William D.; Davies, Roger; Holben, B. N.; Hostetler, Chris A.; Kahn, Ralph A.; Martonchik, John V.; Menzies, Robert T.; Miller, Mark A.; Ogren, J. A.; Penner, Joyce E.; Rasch, P; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Seinfeld, John H.; Stephens, Graeme L.; Torres, Omar; Travis, Larry D.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Yu, Bin

    2004-10-01

    Aerosols exert myriad influences on the Earth?s environment and climate and on human health. The complexity of aerosol-related processes requires that information gathered to improve our understanding of climate change must originate from multiple sources, and that effective strategies for data integration need to be established. Currently, the aerosol community lacks the necessary tools and infrastructure to reap maximum scientific benefit from a vast array of observed and modeled data. Spatial and temporal sampling differences among a diverse set of sensors, nonuniform data qualities, aerosol mesoscale variabilities, and difficulties in separating cloud effects are some of the challenges that need to be addressed. A sustained, long-term program also requires maintaining consistently well-understood accuracies as measurement approaches evolve and improve. Achieving a comprehensive understanding of how aerosol physical, chemical, and radiative processes impact the Earth system can only be achieved through a multidisciplinary, interagency, and international initiative capable of dealing with these issues. A systematic approach, capitalizing on modern measurement and modeling techniques, geospatial statistics methodologies, and high-performance information technologies can provide the necessary machinery to support this objective. We outline a framework for integrating and interpreting observations and models and establishing an accurate, consistent and cohesive long-term record, following a strategy whereby information and tools of progressively greater sophistication are incorporated as problems of increasing complexity are tackled. This concept is named the Progressive Aerosol Retrieval and Assimilation Global Observing Network (PARAGON). To encompass the breadth of effort required, we present a set of recommendations dealing with data interoperability, integration, synergy, summarization and mining, model evaluation, calibration and validation, augmentation of

  10. PARAGON: An Integrated Approach for Characterizing Aerosol Climate Impacts and Environmental Interactions.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diner, David J.; Ackerman, Thomas P.; Anderson, Theodore L.; Bösenberg, Jens; Braverman, Amy J.; Charlson, Robert J.; Collins, William D.; Davies, Roger; Holben, Brent N.; Hostetler, Chris A.; Kahn, Ralph A.; Martonchik, John V.; Menzies, Robert T.; Miller, Mark A.; Ogren, John A.; Penner, Joyce E.; Rasch, Philip J.; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Seinfeld, John H.; Stephens, Graeme L.; Torres, Omar; Travis, Larry D.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Yu, Bin

    2004-10-01

    Aerosols exert myriad influences on the earth's environment and climate, and on human health. The complexity of aerosol-related processes requires that information gathered to improve our understanding of climate change must originate from multiple sources, and that effective strategies for data integration need to be established. While a vast array of observed and modeled data are becoming available, the aerosol research community currently lacks the necessary tools and infrastructure to reap maximum scientific benefit from these data. Spatial and temporal sampling differences among a diverse set of sensors, nonuniform data qualities, aerosol mesoscale variabilities, and difficulties in separating cloud effects are some of the challenges that need to be addressed. Maximizing the long-term benefit from these data also requires maintaining consistently well-understood accuracies as measurement approaches evolve and improve. Achieving a comprehensive understanding of how aerosol physical, chemical, and radiative processes impact the earth system can be achieved only through a multidisciplinary, inter-agency, and international initiative capable of dealing with these issues. A systematic approach, capitalizing on modern measurement and modeling techniques, geospatial statistics methodologies, and high-performance information technologies, can provide the necessary machinery to support this objective. We outline a framework for integrating and interpreting observations and models, and establishing an accurate, consistent, and cohesive long-term record, following a strategy whereby information and tools of progressively greater sophistication are incorporated as problems of increasing complexity are tackled. This concept is named the Progressive Aerosol Retrieval and Assimilation Global Observing Network (PARAGON). To encompass the breadth of the effort required, we present a set of recommendations dealing with data interoperability; measurement and model integration

  11. Observation-constrained Estimation of Aerosol Climate Impacts over S Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Y.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Jefferson, A.; Wilcox, E. M.; Bender, F.; Pistone, K.; Praveen, P. S.; Thomas, R. M.; Ramanathan, V.

    2012-12-01

    Climate impacts of elevated aerosols over S. Asia have been studied extensively. Despite different methods employed and uncertainties, one clear message is that these aerosols have a large impact on the regional energy balance. However, uncertainty in the elevated aerosol absorption, as well as poor fidelity in model representations of aerosol-cloud interactions contribute to the discrepancies in quantifying the aerosol influences on monsoon circulation and rainfall. The main goal of this study is to examine the latitudinal heating gradient and the aerosol impact on the hydrological cycle during the pre-monsoon, with observational constraints on the aerosol vertical distribution. We run a 12-km regional climate model (WRF-Chem) driven by the NCEP analysis data from August 2011 to March 2012. During this time period, the ground-based profiling of aerosol extinction, cloud liquid water, water vapor, and temperature were taken at Nainital (29.38°N, 79.45°E) as part of the Ganges Valley Experiment (GVAX). It is the first time that such vertical profiling data sets are available in the northern Indian subcontinent for such a long period. In the pre-monsoon season (Feb-Mar), the regional model simulations show good agreement in the aerosol optical depth (AOD; 0.1~0.2) and black carbon (BC; ~0.8 ug/m3) concentrations compared with the surface observations at Nainital. The observed diurnal variation in BC concentration, peaking in the afternoon and lowering at night, is also captured by the model as a result of the thermal convection from the polluted valley. The simulated OC/BC ratio is about 2~4 near the surface, which is lower than observations, implying that we may underestimate the secondary organic formation from the biomass burning or biogenic sources. Spectral measurements of aerosol absorption will be used to investigate the absorption of OC in the UV and visible bands. During this time, surface and in situ profiling of aerosols and clouds were also made during

  12. Tropospheric Aerosol Climate Forcing in Clear-Sky Satellite Observations over the Oceans.

    PubMed

    Haywood; Ramaswamy; Soden

    1999-02-26

    Tropospheric aerosols affect the radiative forcing of Earth's climate, but their variable concentrations complicate an understanding of their global influence. Model-based estimates of aerosol distributions helped reveal spatial patterns indicative of the presence of tropospheric aerosols in the satellite-observed clear-sky solar radiation budget over the world's oceans. The results show that, although geographical signatures due to both natural and anthropogenic aerosols are manifest in the satellite observations, the naturally occurring sea-salt is the leading aerosol contributor to the global-mean clear-sky radiation balance over oceans. PMID:10037595

  13. Guidelines for the aerosol climatic effects special study: An element of the NASA climate research program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1979-01-01

    Research to help develop better understanding of the role of aerosols in the Earth's radiative balance is summarized. Natural volcanic injections of aerosols into the stratosphere to understand and model any resultant evidence of climate change are considered. The approach involves: (1) measurements from aircraft, balloon and ground based platforms which complement and enhance the aerosol information derived from satellite data; (2) development of instruments required for some of these measurements; (3) theoretical and laboratory work to aid in interpreting and utilizing space based and in situ data; and (4) preparation for and execution of concentrated observations of stratospheric aerosols following a future large volcanic eruption.

  14. Aerosol climate effects and air quality impacts from 1980 to 2030

    SciTech Connect

    Menon, Surabi; Menon, Surabi; Unger, Nadine; Koch, Dorothy; Francis, Jennifer; Garrett, Tim; Sednev, Igor; Shindell, Drew; Streets, David

    2007-11-26

    We investigate aerosol effects on climate for 1980, 1995 (meant to reflect present-day) and 2030 using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model coupled to an on-line aerosol source and transport model with interactive oxidant and aerosol chemistry. Aerosols simulated include sulfates, organic matter (OM), black carbon (BC), sea-salt and dust and additionally, the amount of tropospheric ozone is calculated, allowing us to estimate both changes to air quality and climate for different time periods and emission amounts. We include both the direct aerosol effect and indirect aerosol effects for liquid-phase clouds. Future changes for the 2030 A1B scenario are examined, focusing on the Arctic and Asia, since changes are pronounced in these regions. Our results for the different time periods include both emission changes and physical climate changes. We find that the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) has a large impact on photochemical processing, decreasing ozone amount and ozone forcing, especially for the future (2030-1995). Ozone forcings increase from 0 to 0.12 Wm{sup -2} and the total aerosol forcing increases from -0.10 Wm{sup -2} to -0.94 Wm{sup -2} (AIE increases from -0.13 to -0.68 Wm{sup -2}) for 1995-1980 versus 2030-1995. Over the Arctic we find that compared to ozone and the direct aerosol effect, the AIE contributes the most to net radiative flux changes. The AIE, calculated for 1995-1980, is positive (1.0 Wm{sup -2}), but the magnitude decreases (-0.3Wm{sup -2}) considerably for the future scenario. Over Asia, we evaluate the role of biofuel and transportation-based emissions (for BC and OM) via a scenario (2030A) that includes a projected increase (factor of two) in biofuel and transport-based emissions for 2030 A1B over Asia. Projected changes from present-day due to the 2030A emissions versus 2030 A1B are a factor of 4 decrease in summertime precipitation in Asia. Our results are sensitive to emissions used. Uncertainty in present

  15. The relative impacts of greenhouse gas and aerosol climate forcing on mountain glacier melt at the third pole

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilcox, E. M.

    2010-12-01

    The third pole region resides within a hot spot for atmospheric brown clouds owing to the widespread emissions of dust, soot, and organic carbon aerosols in South and East Asia. As much as one-half of the regional climate warming over South Asia in the later 20th and early 21st centuries has been attributed to the direct radiative heating of the troposphere by aerosol solar absorption. The other half is attributed to the global greenhouse gas forcing. While the increase in temperature and infrared back radiation attributable to greenhouse gas warming is expected to accelerate melting of Himalayan glaciers, aerosol radiative forcing, and the climate response to it, contribute a host of additional impacts on mountain glaciers, many of which exacerbate the melting. These impacts include atmospheric warming, increased infrared back radiation, reduced surface insolation, surface albedo modification by soot deposition, and reductions in monsoon precipitation. The contributions of each of these effects upon melting of Himalayan mountain glaciers is explored in a glacier mass model based on energy balance calculations. The surface energy balance from the base to the top of several glaciers is calculated based on remote sensing and in-situ time series of radiative fluxes and precipitation. The model is calibrated against recent in-situ measurements of glacier mass balance and equilibrium altitude where available. Perturbations to the radiative fluxes and precipitation are then imposed on the mass balance calculations based on published estimates of the aerosol radiative forcing magnitudes and observed changes in regional temperature and precipitation over the modern era. In light of the substantial uncertainty surrounding regional forcing values and mountain glacier characteristics, the study emphasizes sensitivity studies comparing the relative responses of glaciers to the components of aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing mentioned above. Of particular interest are: (a) the

  16. Production of satellite-derived aerosol climate data records: current status of the ESA Aerosol_cci project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Leeuw, Gerrit; Holzer-Popp, Thomas; Pinnock, Simon

    2015-04-01

    and the Aerosol_cci team Within the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) project Aerosol_cci (Phase 1: 2010 -2014; Phase 2: 2014-2017) intensive work has been conducted to improve algorithms for the retrieval of aerosol information from European sensors ATSR (3 algorithms), PARASOL, MERIS (3 algorithms), synergetic AATSR/SCIAMACHY, OMI and GOMOS. Whereas OMI and GOMOS were used to derive absorbing aerosol index and stratospheric extinction profiles, respectively, Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and Ångström coefficient were retrieved from the other sensors. The cooperation between the project partners, including both the retrieval teams and independent validation teams, has resulted in a strong improvement of most algorithms. In particular the AATSR retrieved AOD is qualitatively similar to that from MODIS, usually taken as the standard, MISR and SeaWiFS. This conclusion has been reached form several different ways of validation of the L2 and L3 products, using AERONET sun photometer data as the common ground-truth for the application of both 'traditional' statistical techniques and a 'scoring' technique using spatial and temporal correlations. Quantitatively, the limited AATSR swath width of 500km results in a smaller amount of data. Nevertheless, the assimilation of AATSR-retrieved AOD, together with MODIS data, contributes to improving the in the ECMWF climate model results. In addition to the multi-spectral AOD, and thus the Ångström Exponent, also a per-pixel uncertainty is provided and validated. By the end of Aerosol_cci Phase 1 the ATSR algorithms have been applied to both ATSR-2 and AATSR resulting in an AOD time series of 17 years. In phase 2 this work is continued with a focus on the further improvement of the ATSR algorithms as well as those for the other instruments and algorithms, mentioned above, which in phase 1 were considered less mature. The first efforts are on the further characterization of the uncertainties and on better understanding of the

  17. Global distribution and Gas-particle Partitioning of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons - a Modelling Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lammel, G.; Sehili, A. M.

    2009-04-01

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are emitted in all combustion processes. Some undergo re-volatilisation (multi-hopping). Little is known about degradation pathways and the processes determining gas-particle partitioning (Lohmann & Lammel, 2004). Distribution and fate have no been studied on the global scale so far (except for emissions in Europe and Russia; Sehili & Lammel, 2007). Anthracene (ANT), fluoranthene (FLT) and benzo[a]pyrene (BAP) have been studied under present-day climate and each 3 scenarios of atmospheric degradation and gas-particle partitioning using an atmospheric general circulation model with embedded dynamic aerosol submodel, ECHAM-HAM (Stier et al., 2005) and re-volatilization from ground compartments (Semeena et al., 2006). 10 years were simulated with a time-step of 30 min and 2.8°x2.8° and 19 levels. Emissions were compiled based on emission factors in 27 major types of combustion technologies, scaled to 141 combustion technologies and their global distribution as of 1996 (1°x1°) according to fuel type and the PM1 emission factor (Bond et al., 2004). The emissions were entried uniformly throughout the entire simulation time. Scenarios tested: AD = adsorption (according to the Junge empirical relationship; Pankow, 1987), OB = absorption in organic matter and adsorption to soot (Lohmann & Lammel, 2004) without and DP = with degradation in the atmospheric particulate phase. Gas-particle partitioning in air influences drastically the atmospheric cycling, total environmental fate (e.g. compartmental distributions) and the long-range transport potential (LRTP) of the substances studied. The LRTP is mostly regional. Comparison with observed levels indicate that degradation in the particulate phase must be slower than in the gas-phase. Furthermore, the levels of semivolatile PAHs (ANT and FLT) at high latitudes and a European mid latitude site cannot be explained by partitioning due to adsorption alone, but point to both absorption into

  18. Aerosols, climate, and the hydrological cycle.

    PubMed

    Ramanathan, V; Crutzen, P J; Kiehl, J T; Rosenfeld, D

    2001-12-01

    Human activities are releasing tiny particles (aerosols) into the atmosphere. These human-made aerosols enhance scattering and absorption of solar radiation. They also produce brighter clouds that are less efficient at releasing precipitation. These in turn lead to large reductions in the amount of solar irradiance reaching Earth's surface, a corresponding increase in solar heating of the atmosphere, changes in the atmospheric temperature structure, suppression of rainfall, and less efficient removal of pollutants. These aerosol effects can lead to a weaker hydrological cycle, which connects directly to availability and quality of fresh water, a major environmental issue of the 21st century. PMID:11739947

  19. Confronting AeroCom models with particle size distribution data from surface in situ stations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Platt, Stephen; Fiebig, Markus; Mann, Graham; Schulz, Michael

    2016-04-01

    The size distribution is the most important property for describing any interaction of an aerosol particle population with its surroundings. In first order, it determines both, the aerosol optical properties quantifying the direct aerosol climate effect, and the fraction of aerosol particles acting as cloud condensation nuclei quantifying the indirect aerosol climate effect. Aerosol schemes of modern climate models resolve the aerosol particle size distribution (APSD) explicitly. In improving the skill of climate models, it is therefore highly useful to confront these models with precision APSD data observed at surface stations. Corresponding previous work focussed on comparing size integrated, seasonal particle concentrations at selected sites with ensemble model averages to assess overall model skill. Building on this work, this project intends to refine the approach by comparing median particle size and integral concentration of fitted modal size distributions. It will also look at skill differences between models in order to find reasons for matches and discrepancies. The presentation will outline the project, and will elaborate on input requested from modelling groups to participate in the exercise.

  20. Growing up MODIS: Towards a mature aerosol climate data record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levy, Robert C.

    2013-05-01

    Aerosols are major players within the Earth's climate system, affecting the radiation budget, clouds and the hydrological cycle. In high concentrations near the surface, aerosols (or particulate matter, PM) affect visibility, impact air quality, and can contribute to poor health. Among others, Yoram Kaufman recognized the importance of aerosols to climate, and helped to design new instrumentation and algorithms to retrieve and quantify global aerosol properties. One instrument, known as the Moderate Imaging Resolution Spectro-radiometer (MODIS), was deployed on the AM-1 satellite (later known as Terra), part of NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS). In 1998, armed with an M.S. and job experience in neither aerosols nor satellites, I was looking for a new job. I somehow found my way to the MODIS Aerosol team. It was only a year before Terra launch, and most major decisions about the MODIS aerosol retrieval algorithms had been finalized. Since then, we worked through launch, initial evaluation of the product with AERONET and field deployments, and continued efforts to understand the product and refine retrieval algorithms. I have had opportunities to participate in field experiments, write papers, and earn my PhD. The "second generation" algorithm for aerosol retrieval over land has been hugely successful. We have collected nearly a half-million collocations with AERONET and other dataseis, made new discoveries, and have contributed to research and operational projects globally. Due to the dedication of the entire team, the MODIS aerosol product now is one of the highlights of NASA's EOS program. It is used for climate research and air quality forecasting, as well for applications not even considered before the MODIS era. More recently, a focus is on stitching the MODIS aerosol product into the "climate data record" (CDR) for global aerosol, determining whether the product has sufficient length, consistency and continuity to determine climate variability and change. There are two orbiting MODIS sensors (on Terra and Aqua), and like human twins, they have had different life experiences; the result is a slightly different perspective on global aerosol distribution. To assess simple questions like "Is global aerosol increasing or decreasing?" requires detailed analyses into diverse subjects, such as instrument calibration, assumptions for gas correction, and aggregations of spatial sampling. With the recent launch of VIIRS on Suomi-NPP, there is a new addition to the aerosol monitoring "family." While preliminary indications are that it will produce a successful aerosol product, work on its position within the CDR is just beginning. In 1998, in addition to starting a new job, I joined a unique family composed of scientists around the world. I am grateful that the community has been supportive and nurturing. Of course, like in any family, there are many stories to tell. Here, at IRS-2012, I share some of my experiences of working within the collective MODIS aerosol project.

  1. Aerosol climate time series from ESA Aerosol_cci (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holzer-Popp, T.

    2013-12-01

    Within the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) the Aerosol_cci project (mid 2010 - mid 2013, phase 2 proposed 2014-2016) has conducted intensive work to improve algorithms for the retrieval of aerosol information from European sensors AATSR (3 algorithms), PARASOL, MERIS (3 algorithms), synergetic AATSR/SCIAMACHY, OMI and GOMOS. Whereas OMI and GOMOS were used to derive absorbing aerosol index and stratospheric extinction profiles, respectively, Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and Angstrom coefficient were retrieved from the other sensors. Global datasets for 2008 were produced and validated versus independent ground-based data and other satellite data sets (MODIS, MISR). An additional 17-year dataset is currently generated using ATSR-2/AATSR data. During the three years of the project, intensive collaborative efforts were made to improve the retrieval algorithms focusing on the most critical modules. The team agreed on the use of a common definition for the aerosol optical properties. Cloud masking was evaluated, but a rigorous analysis with a pre-scribed cloud mask did not lead to improvement for all algorithms. Better results were obtained using a post-processing step in which sudden transitions, indicative of possible occurrence of cloud contamination, were removed. Surface parameterization, which is most critical for the nadir only algorithms (MERIS and synergetic AATSR / SCIAMACHY) was studied to a limited extent. The retrieval results for AOD, Ångström exponent (AE) and uncertainties were evaluated by comparison with data from AERONET (and a limited amount of MAN) sun photometer and with satellite data available from MODIS and MISR. Both level2 and level3 (gridded daily) datasets were validated. Several validation metrics were used (standard statistical quantities such as bias, rmse, Pearson correlation, linear regression, as well as scoring approaches to quantitatively evaluate the spatial and temporal correlations against AERONET), and in some cases developed further, to evaluate the datasets and their regional and seasonal merits. The validation showed that most datasets have improved significantly and in particular PARASOL (ocean only) provides excellent results. The metrics for AATSR (land and ocean) datasets are similar to those of MODIS and MISR, with AATSR better in some land regions and less good in some others (ocean). However, AATSR coverage is smaller than that of MODIS due to swath width. The MERIS dataset provides better coverage than AATSR but has lower quality (especially over land) than the other datasets. Also the synergetic AATSR/SCIAMACHY dataset has lower quality. The evaluation of the pixel uncertainties shows first good results but also reveals that more work needs to be done to provide comprehensive information for data assimilation. Users (MACC/ECMWF, AEROCOM) confirmed the relevance of this additional information and encouraged Aerosol_cci to release the current uncertainties. The paper will summarize and discuss the results of three year work in Aerosol_cci, extract the lessons learned and conclude with an outlook to the work proposed for the next three years. In this second phase a cyclic effort of algorithm evolution, dataset generation, validation and assessment will be applied to produce and further improve complete time series from all sensors under investigation, new sensors will be added (e.g. IASI), and preparation for the Sentinel missions will be made.

  2. Aerosol Climate Effects: Local Radiative Forcing and Column Closure Experiments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Russell, P. B.; Bergstrom, Robert W.; Kinne, S. A.

    2000-01-01

    In an effort to reduce uncertainties in climate change predictions, experiments are being planned and conducted to measure anthropogenic aerosol properties and effects, including effects on radiative fields. The global average, direct anthropogenic aerosol effect on upwelling shortwave fluxes is estimated to be about +1/2 W/sq m, whereas errors in flux changes measured with airborne and spaceborne radiometers are 2 to 8 W/sq m or larger. This poses the question of whether flux changes expected in field experiments will be large enough to measure accurately. This paper obtains a new expression for the aerosol-induced change in upwelling flux, compares it to two-stream and adding-doubling (AD) results, and uses all three methods to estimate expected flux changes. The new expression accounts for the solar zenith angle dependences of aerosol transmission and reflection, as well as of surface albedo, all of which can have a strong effect in determining flux changes measured in field experiments. Despite its relative simplicity, the new expression gives results similar to previous two-stream results. Relative to AD results, it agrees within a few watts per square meter for the intermediate solar elevation angles where the flux changes peak (roughly 10 to 30 degrees), but it has negative errors for higher Sun and positive errors for lower Sun. All three techniques yield aerosol-induced changes in upwelling flux of +8 to +50 W/sq m for aerosol midvisible optical depths of 0.1 to 0.5. Because such aerosol optical depths occur frequently off the U.S. and European Atlantic coasts in summer, the flux changes they induce should be measurable by airborne, and possibly by spaceborne, radiometers, provided sufficient care is taken in experiment design (including measurements to separate aerosol radiative effects from those of absorbing gases). The expected flux changes are about 15 to 100 times larger than the global average flux change expected for the global average anthropogenic sulfate optical depth of 0.04. Reasons for the larger flux changes include the larger optical depths considered here (factor 2.5 to 12), plus restricting the measurements to cloud-free, daytime conditions over the ocean (factor 5 to 9).

  3. Aerosol Sources, Absorption, and Intercontinental Transport: Synergies Among Models, Remote Sensing, and Atmospheric Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chin, Mian; Chu, Allen; Levy, Robert; Remer, Lorraine; Kaufman, Yoram; Dubovik, Oleg; Holben, Brent; Eck, Tom; Anderson, Tad; Quinn, Patricia

    2004-01-01

    Aerosol climate forcing is one of the largest uncertainties in assessing the anthropogenic impact on the global climate system. This uncertainty arises from the poorly quantified aerosol sources, especially black carbon emissions, our limited knowledge of aerosol mixing state and optical properties, and the consequences of intercontinental transport of aerosols and their precursors. Here we use a global model GOCART to simulate atmospheric aerosols, including sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, dust, and sea salt, from anthropogenic, .biomass burning, and natural sources. We compare the model calculated aerosol extinction and absorption with those quantities from the ground-based sun photometer measurements from AERON" at several different wavelengths and the field observations from ACE-Asia, and model calculated total aerosol optical depth and fine mode fractions with the MODIS satellite retrieval. We will also estimate the intercontinental transport of pollution and dust aerosols from their source regions to other areas in different seasons.

  4. Aerosol Sources, Absorption, and Intercontinental Transport: Synergies among Models, Remote Sensing, and Atmospheric Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chin, Mian; Ginoux, Paul; Dubovik, Oleg; Holben, Brent; Kaufman, Yoram; chu, Allen; Anderson, Tad; Quinn, Patricia

    2003-01-01

    Aerosol climate forcing is one of the largest uncertainties in assessing the anthropogenic impact on the global climate system. This uncertainty arises from the poorly quantified aerosol sources, especially black carbon emissions, our limited knowledge of aerosol mixing state and optical properties, and the consequences of intercontinental transport of aerosols and their precursors. Here we use a global model GOCART to simulate atmospheric aerosols, including sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, dust, and sea salt, from anthropogenic, biomass burning, and natural sources. We compare the model calculated aerosol extinction and absorption with those quantities from the ground-based sun photometer measurements from AERONET at several different wavelengths and the field observations from ACE-Asia, and model calculated total aerosol optical depth and fine mode fractions with the MODIS satellite retrieval. We will also estimate the intercontinental transport of pollution and dust aerosols from their source regions to other areas in different seasons.

  5. Aerosol Processing in Mixed-Phase Clouds in ECHAM5-HAM: Comparison of Single-Column Model Simulations to Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoose, C.; Lohmann, U.; Stier, P.; Verheggen, B.; Weingartner, E.; Herich, H.

    2007-12-01

    The global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM (Stier et al., 2005) has been extended by an explicit treatment of cloud-borne particles. Two additional modes for in-droplet and in-crystal particles are introduced, which are coupled to the number of cloud droplet and ice crystal concentrations simulated by the ECHAM5 double-moment cloud microphysics scheme (Lohmann et al., 2007). Transfer, production and removal of cloud-borne aerosol number and mass by cloud droplet activation, collision scavenging, aqueous-phase sulfate production, freezing, melting, evaporation, sublimation and precipitation formation are taken into account. The model performance is demonstrated and validated with observations of the evolution of total and interstitial aerosol concentrations and size distributions during three different mixed-phase cloud events at the alpine high-altitude research station Jungfraujoch (Switzerland) (Verheggen et al, 2007). Although the single-column simulations can not be compared one-to-one with the observations, the governing processes in the evolution of the cloud and aerosol parameters are captured qualitatively well. High scavenged fractions are found during the presence of liquid water, while the release of particles during the Bergeron-Findeisen process results in low scavenged fractions after cloud glaciation. The observed coexistence of liquid and ice, which might be related to cloud heterogeneity at subgrid scales, can only be simulated in the model when forcing non-equilibrium conditions. References: U. Lohmann et al., Cloud microphysics and aerosol indirect effects in the global climate model ECHAM5-HAM, Atmos. Chem. Phys. 7, 3425-3446 (2007) P. Stier et al., The aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM, Atmos. Chem. Phys. 5, 1125-1156 (2005) B. Verheggen et al., Aerosol partitioning between the interstitial and the condensed phase in mixed-phase clouds, Accepted for publication in J. Geophys. Res. (2007)

  6. A Simple Model of Global Aerosol Indirect Effects

    SciTech Connect

    Ghan, Steven J.; Smith, Steven J.; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Kai; Pringle, K. J.; Carslaw, K. S.; Pierce, Jeffrey; Bauer, Susanne E.; Adams, P. J.

    2013-06-28

    Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth’s energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically-based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect using analytic representations of droplet nucleation, cloud and aerosol vertical structure, and horizontal variability in cloud water and aerosol concentration. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of aerosol indirect effects that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates are found to be sensitive to several uncertain parameters, including the preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the size of the primary particles, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Aerosol indirect effects are surprisingly linear in emissions. This simple model provides a much stronger physical basis for representing aerosol indirect effects than previous representations in integrated assessment models designed to quickly explore the parameter space of emissions-climate interactions. The model also produces estimates that depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models.

  7. A Simple Model of Global Aerosol Indirect Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ghan, Steven J.; Smith, Steven J.; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Kai; Pringle, Kirsty; Carslaw, Kenneth; Pierce, Jeffrey; Bauer, Susanne; Adams, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) using analytic representations of cloud and aerosol distributions and processes. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of AIEs that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates by the simple model are sensitive to preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, preindustrial accumulation mode radius, width of the accumulation mode, size of primary particles, cloud thickness, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Estimates of present-day AIEs as low as 5 W/sq m and as high as 0.3 W/sq m are obtained for plausible sets of parameter values. Estimates are surprisingly linear in emissions. The estimates depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models, which adds to understanding of the dependence on AIE uncertainty on uncertainty in parameter values.

  8. Simulations of Aerosol Microphysics in the NASA GEOS-5 Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Colarco, Peter; Smith; Randles; daSilva

    2010-01-01

    Aerosol-cloud-chemistry interactions have potentially large but uncertain impacts on Earth's climate. One path to addressing these uncertainties is to construct models that incorporate various components of the Earth system and to test these models against data. To that end, we have previously incorporated the Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation, and Transport (GOCART) module online in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model (GEOS-5). GEOS-5 provides a platform for Earth system modeling, incorporating atmospheric and ocean general circulation models, a land surface model, a data assimilation system, and treatments of atmospheric chemistry and hydrologic cycle. Including GOCART online in this framework has provided a path for interactive aerosol-climate studies; however, GOCART only tracks the mass of aerosols as external mixtures and does not include the detailed treatments of aerosol size distribution and composition (internal mixtures) needed for aerosol-cloud-chemistry-climate studies. To address that need we have incorporated the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA) online in GEOS-5. CARMA is a sectional aerosol-cloud microphysical model, capable of treating both aerosol size and composition explicitly be resolving the aerosol distribution into a variable number of size and composition groupings. Here we present first simulations of dust, sea salt, and smoke aerosols in GEOS-5 as treated by CARMA. These simulations are compared to available aerosol satellite, ground, and aircraft data and as well compared to the simulated distributions in our current GOCART based system.

  9. Scales of variability of black carbon plumes and their dependence on resolution of ECHAM6-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weigum, Natalie; Stier, Philip; Schutgens, Nick; Kipling, Zak

    2015-04-01

    Prediction of the aerosol effect on climate depends on the ability of three-dimensional numerical models to accurately estimate aerosol properties. However, a limitation of traditional grid-based models is their inability to resolve variability on scales smaller than a grid box. Past research has shown that significant aerosol variability exists on scales smaller than these grid-boxes, which can lead to discrepancies between observations and aerosol models. The aim of this study is to understand how a global climate model's (GCM) inability to resolve sub-grid scale variability affects simulations of important aerosol features. This problem is addressed by comparing observed black carbon (BC) plume scales from the HIPPO aircraft campaign to those simulated by ECHAM-HAM GCM, and testing how model resolution affects these scales. This study additionally investigates how model resolution affects BC variability in remote and near-source regions. These issues are examined using three different approaches: comparison of observed and simulated along-flight-track plume scales, two-dimensional autocorrelation analysis, and 3-dimensional plume analysis. We find that the degree to which GCMs resolve variability can have a significant impact on the scales of BC plumes, and it is important for models to capture the scales of aerosol plume structures, which account for a large degree of aerosol variability. In this presentation, we will provide further results from the three analysis techniques along with a summary of the implication of these results on future aerosol model development.

  10. Why cirrus cloud seeding cannot substantially cool the planet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gasparini, Blaž; Lohmann, Ulrike

    2016-05-01

    The net warming effect of cirrus clouds has driven part of the geoengineering research toward the idea of decreasing their occurrence frequency by seeding them with efficient ice nucleating particles. We study responses of cirrus clouds to simplified global seeding strategies in terms of their radiative fluxes with the help of the ECHAM-HAM general circulation model. Our cirrus scheme takes into account the competition between homogeneous and heterogeneous freezing, preexisting ice crystals, and the full spectrum of updraft velocities. While we find that the cirrus cloud radiative effect evaluated from our model is positive and large enough (5.7 W/m2) to confirm their geoengineering potential, none of the seeding strategies achieves a significant cooling due to complex microphysical mechanisms limiting their climatic responses. After globally uniform seeding is applied, we observe an increase in cirrus cloud cover, a decrease in ice crystal number concentration, and a decrease in ice crystal radius. An analysis of their respective radiative contributions points to the ice crystal radius decrease as the main factor limiting seeding effectiveness.

  11. Limitations of passive satellite remote sensing to constrain global cloud condensation nuclei

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stier, Philip

    2015-04-01

    Aerosol-cloud interactions are considered a key uncertainty in our understanding of climate change. Knowledge of the global abundance of aerosols suitable to act as cloud condensation nuclei is fundamental to determine the strength of the anthropogenic climate perturbation. Direct measurements are limited and sample only a very small fraction of the globe so that remote sensing from satellites and ground based instruments is widely used as a proxy for cloud condensation nuclei. However, the underlying assumptions cannot be robustly tested with the small number of measurements available so that no reliable global estimate of cloud condensation nuclei exists. This study overcomes this limitation using a fully self-consistent global model (ECHAM-HAM) of aerosol radiative properties and cloud condensation nuclei. An analysis of the correlation of simulated aerosol radiative properties and cloud condensation nuclei reveals that common assumptions about their relationships are violated for a significant fraction of the globe, important for studies of aerosol-cloud interactions. The findings suggest that multi-spectral vertically resolved remote sensing techniques, such as satellite-based high spectral resolution lidars, have a large potential for global monitoring of cloud condensation nuclei.

  12. Limitations of passive satellite remote sensing to constrain global cloud condensation nuclei

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stier, P.

    2015-11-01

    Aerosol-cloud interactions are considered a key uncertainty in our understanding of climate change (Boucher et al., 2013). Knowledge of the global abundance of aerosols suitable to act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) is fundamental to determine the strength of the anthropogenic climate perturbation. Direct measurements are limited and sample only a very small fraction of the globe so that remote sensing from satellites and ground based instruments is widely used as a proxy for cloud condensation nuclei (Nakajima et al., 2001; Andreae, 2009; Clarke and Kapustin, 2010; Boucher et al., 2013). However, the underlying assumptions cannot be robustly tested with the small number of measurements available so that no reliable global estimate of cloud condensation nuclei exists. This study overcomes this limitation using a fully self-consistent global model (ECHAM-HAM) of aerosol radiative properties and cloud condensation nuclei. An analysis of the correlation of simulated aerosol radiative properties and cloud condensation nuclei reveals that common assumptions about their relationships are violated for a significant fraction of the globe: 71 % of the area of the globe shows correlation coefficients between CCN0.2% at cloud base and aerosol optical depth (AOD) below 0.5, i.e. AOD variability explains only 25 % of the CCN variance. This has significant implications for satellite based studies of aerosol-cloud interactions. The findings also suggest that vertically resolved remote sensing techniques, such as satellite-based high spectral resolution lidars, have a large potential for global monitoring of cloud condensation nuclei.

  13. Limitations of passive remote sensing to constrain global cloud condensation nuclei

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stier, Philip

    2016-05-01

    Aerosol-cloud interactions are considered a key uncertainty in our understanding of climate change (Boucher et al., 2013). Knowledge of the global abundance of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) is fundamental to determine the strength of the anthropogenic climate perturbation. Direct measurements are limited and sample only a very small fraction of the globe so that remote sensing from satellites and ground-based instruments is widely used as a proxy for cloud condensation nuclei (Nakajima et al., 2001; Andreae, 2009; Clarke and Kapustin, 2010; Boucher et al., 2013). However, the underlying assumptions cannot be robustly tested with the small number of measurements available so that no reliable global estimate of cloud condensation nuclei exists. This study overcomes this limitation using a self-consistent global model (ECHAM-HAM) of aerosol radiative properties and cloud condensation nuclei. An analysis of the correlation of simulated aerosol radiative properties and cloud condensation nuclei reveals that common assumptions about their relationships are violated for a significant fraction of the globe: 71 % of the area of the globe shows correlation coefficients between CCN0.2 % at cloud base and aerosol optical depth (AOD) below 0.5, i.e. AOD variability explains only 25 % of the CCN variance. This has significant implications for satellite based studies of aerosol-cloud interactions. The findings also suggest that vertically resolved remote-sensing techniques, such as satellite-based high spectral resolution lidars, have a large potential for global monitoring of cloud condensation nuclei.

  14. A modeling study on the climate impacts of black carbon aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Chien

    2004-02-01

    A three-dimensional interactive aerosol-climate model has been developed and used to study the climatic impact of black carbon (BC) aerosols. When compared with the model's natural variability, significant global-scale changes caused by BC aerosols occurred in surface latent and sensible heat flux, surface net long-wave radiative flux, planetary boundary layer height, convective precipitation (all negative), and low-cloud coverage (positive), all closely related to the hydrological cycle. The most significant regional change caused by BC revealed in this study is in precipitation that occurs in the tropics (shift of precipitation center in the ITCZ) and in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (change in snow depth). Influenced by BC caused changes in cloud cover and surface albedo, the interactive model provides smaller positive all-sky forcing at the top of atmosphere (TOA) and larger negative forcing at the surface than the offline diagnostics (the direct forcings). The actual solar radiative forcings by BC derived from the interactive model also exhibit significant interannual variations that are up to 4 times as large as their means. Based on the revealed changes in cloud radiative forcing by BC, a non-Twomey-Albrecht indirect forcing by BC that alters radiative budgets by changing cloud cover via thermodynamics rather than microphysics is also defined. It has been demonstrated that with an absolute amount more than 2 times higher than that of the TOA forcing, the surface forcing by BC is a very important factor in analyzing the climatic impact of BC. The result of this study suggests that with a constant annual emission of 14 TgC, BC aerosols do not cause a significant change in global-mean surface temperature. The calculated surface temperature change is determined by a subtle balance among changes in surface energy budget as well as in the hydrological cycle, all caused by BC forcing and often compensate each other. The result of this

  15. Evaluation of Global Anthropogenic Aerosol Indirect Effects in the GISS Model III

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, W.; Nenes, A.; Liao, H.; Adams, P. J.; Seinfeld, J. H.

    2008-12-01

    In this study the implementation of the aerosol indirect effect in the 23-layer Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model III is described. Explicit dependence on cloud droplet number concentrations (Nc) is introduced in the calculations of cloud optical depths and autoconversion rates in liquid-phase stratiform clouds to account for both first and second indirect effects. To diagnose Nc, correlation with concentrations of aerosol soluble ions is developed separately for each model grid and in each month, to reflect seasonal and spatial variations in aerosol-cloud interactions. Based on estimates of pre-industrial, present-day (year 2000), and future (year 2100) concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, sea salt, and organic aerosols from the fully coupled Caltech unified model, corresponding offline, monthly averaged Nc were derived and applied to equilibrium climate simulations. Modeled present-day global distributions of Nc, droplet size, cloud cover, and radiative balance are in good agreement with satellite-retrieved climatology. A global anthropogenic indirect forcing of -1.7 W m-2, with a decrease in mean droplet radius of 0.8 μm, and an increase in total liquid water path of 0.2 g cm-2, from pre-industrial to year 2000 is estimated. Future climate responses to aerosol direct and indirect effects are also analyzed and compared to previous studies that consider chemistry- aerosol-climate coupling, revealing the influences of this coupling on climate predictions.

  16. Assessing the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific storm track using a multiscale global climate model.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan H; Molina, Mario J

    2014-05-13

    Atmospheric aerosols affect weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track, using a multiscale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and preindustrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by -2.5 and +1.3 W m(-2), respectively, by emission changes from preindustrial to present day, and an increased cloud top height indicates invigorated midlatitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides, for the first time to the authors' knowledge, a global perspective of the effects of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multiscale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on a global scale. PMID:24733923

  17. Modeling Study of the Effect of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Late Spring Drought in South China

    SciTech Connect

    Hu, Ning; Liu, Xiaohong

    2013-10-01

    In this study, the mechanisms underlying the decadal variability of late spring precipitation in south China are investigated using the latest version 1 of Community Earth System Model (CESM1). We aim to unravel the effects of different climate forcing agents, such as aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs), on the decadal variation of precipitation with transient experiments from pre-industry (for year 1850) to present-day (for year 2000). Our results reveal that: (1) CESM1 can reproduce the climatological features of atmospheric circulation and precipitation for the late spring in south China; (2) Only simulations including the forcing of anthropogenic aerosols can reproduce the observed decreasing trend of late spring precipitation from 1950-2000 in south China; (3) Aerosols affect the decadal change of precipitation mainly by altering the large scale atmospheric circulation, and to a less extent by increasing the lower-tropospheric stability to inhibit the convective precipitation; and (4) In comparison, other climate forcing agents, such as GHGs, have much smaller effects on the decadal change of spring precipitation in south China. Key words: precipitation, aerosols, climate change, south China, Community Earth System Model

  18. Assessing the Effects of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Pacific Storm Track Using a Multiscale Global Climate Model

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J.; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan; Molina, Mario J.

    2014-05-13

    Atmospheric aerosols impact weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track using a multi-scale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and pre-industrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by - 2.5 and + 1.3 W m-2, respectively, by emission changes from pre-industrial to present day, and an increased cloud-top height indicates invigorated mid-latitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides for the first time a global perspective of the impacts of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multi-scale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on the global scale.

  19. Sensitivity of aerosol concentrations and cloud properties to nucleation and secondary organic distribution in ECHAM5-HAM global circulation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Makkonen, R.; Asmi, A.; Korhonen, H.; Kokkola, H.; Järvenoja, S.; Räisänen, P.; Lehtinen, K. E. J.; Laaksonen, A.; Kerminen, V.-M.; Järvinen, H.; Lohmann, U.; Feichter, J.; Kulmala, M.

    2008-06-01

    The global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM was modified to improve the representation of new particle formation in the boundary layer. Activation-type nucleation mechanism was introduced to produce observed nucleation rates in lower troposphere. A simple and computationally efficient model for biogenic secondary organic aerosol (BSOA) formation was implemented. We studied the sensitivity of aerosol and cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC) to these additions. Activation-type nucleation significantly increases aerosol number concentrations in the boundary layer. Increased particle number concentrations have a significant effect also on cloud droplet number concentrations and therefore on cloud properties. We performed calculations with activation nucleation coefficient values of 2×10-7 s-1, 2×10-6 s-1 and 2×10-5 s-1 to evaluate the sensitivity to this parameter. For BSOA we have used yields of 0.025, 0.07 and 0.15 to estimate the amount of monoterpene oxidation products available for condensation. The dynamic SOA scheme induces large regional changes to size distribution of organic carbon, and therefore affects particle optical properties and cloud droplet number concentrations locally. Comparison with satellite observation shows that activation-type nucleation significantly decreases the differences between observed and modeled values of cloud top CDNC.

  20. Aerosol processing in mixed-phase clouds in ECHAM5-HAM: Model description and comparison to observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoose, C.; Lohmann, U.; Stier, P.; Verheggen, B.; Weingartner, E.

    2008-04-01

    The global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM has been extended by an explicit treatment of cloud-borne particles. Two additional modes for in-droplet and in-crystal particles are introduced, which are coupled to the number of cloud droplet and ice crystal concentrations simulated by the ECHAM5 double-moment cloud microphysics scheme. Transfer, production, and removal of cloud-borne aerosol number and mass by cloud droplet activation, collision scavenging, aqueous-phase sulfate production, freezing, melting, evaporation, sublimation, and precipitation formation are taken into account. The model performance is demonstrated and validated with observations of the evolution of total and interstitial aerosol concentrations and size distributions during three different mixed-phase cloud events at the alpine high-altitude research station Jungfraujoch (Switzerland). Although the single-column simulations cannot be compared one-to-one with the observations, the governing processes in the evolution of the cloud and aerosol parameters are captured qualitatively well. High scavenged fractions are found during the presence of liquid water, while the release of particles during the Bergeron-Findeisen process results in low scavenged fractions after cloud glaciation. The observed coexistence of liquid and ice, which might be related to cloud heterogeneity at subgrid scales, can only be simulated in the model when assuming nonequilibrium conditions.

  1. Sensitivity of aerosol concentrations and cloud properties to nucleation and secondary organic distribution in ECHAM5-HAM global circulation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Makkonen, R.; Asmi, A.; Korhonen, H.; Kokkola, H.; Järvenoja, S.; Räisänen, P.; Lehtinen, K. E. J.; Laaksonen, A.; Kerminen, V.-M.; Järvinen, H.; Lohmann, U.; Bennartz, R.; Feichter, J.; Kulmala, M.

    2009-03-01

    The global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM was modified to improve the representation of new particle formation in the boundary layer. Activation-type nucleation mechanism was introduced to produce observed nucleation rates in the lower troposphere. A simple and computationally efficient model for biogenic secondary organic aerosol (BSOA) formation was implemented. Here we study the sensitivity of the aerosol and cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC) to these additions. Activation-type nucleation significantly increases aerosol number concentrations in the boundary layer. Increased particle number concentrations have a significant effect also on cloud droplet number concentrations and therefore on cloud properties. We performed calculations with activation nucleation coefficient values of 2×10-7s-1, 2×10-6s-1 and 2×10-5s-1 to evaluate the sensitivity to this parameter. For BSOA we have used yields of 0.025, 0.07 and 0.15 to estimate the amount of monoterpene oxidation products available for condensation. The hybrid BSOA formation scheme induces large regional changes to size distribution of organic carbon, and therefore affects particle optical properties and cloud droplet number concentrations locally. Although activation-type nucleation improves modeled aerosol number concentrations in the boundary layer, the use of a global activation coefficient generally leads to overestimation of aerosol number. Overestimation can also arise from underestimation of primary emissions.

  2. A modeling study of effective radiative forcing and climate response due to tropospheric ozone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Bing; Zhang, Hua; Wang, Zhili; Zhao, Shuyun; Fu, Qiang

    2016-07-01

    This study simulates the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of tropospheric ozone from 1850 to 2013 and its effects on global climate using an aerosol-climate coupled model, BCC AGCM2.0.1 CUACE/Aero, in combination with OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) satellite ozone data. According to the OMI observations, the global annual mean tropospheric column ozone (TCO) was 33.9 DU in 2013, and the largest TCO was distributed in the belts between 30°N and 45°N and at approximately 30°S; the annual mean TCO was higher in the Northern Hemisphere than that in the Southern Hemisphere; and in boreal summer and autumn, the global mean TCO was higher than in winter and spring. The simulated ERF due to the change in tropospheric ozone concentration from 1850 to 2013 was 0.46 W m-2, thereby causing an increase in the global annual mean surface temperature by 0.36°C, and precipitation by 0.02 mm d-1 (the increase of surface temperature had a significance level above 95%). The surface temperature was increased more obviously over the high latitudes in both hemispheres, with the maximum exceeding 1.4°C in Siberia. There were opposite changes in precipitation near the equator, with an increase of 0.5 mm d-1 near the Hawaiian Islands and a decrease of about -0.6 mm d-1 near the middle of the Indian Ocean.

  3. The contribution of aerosol hygroscopic growth to the modeled aerosol radiative effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kokkola, Harri; Kühn, Thomas; Kirkevåg, Alf; Romakkaniemi, Sami; Arola, Antti

    2016-04-01

    The hygroscopic growth of atmospheric aerosols can have a significant effect on the direct radiative effect of atmospheric aerosol. However, there are significant uncertainties concerning how much of the radiative forcing is due to different chemical compounds, especially water. For example, modeled optical depth of water in global aerosol-climate models varies by more than a factor of two. These differences can be attributed to differences in modeled 1) hygroscopicity, 2) ambient relative humidity, and/or 3) aerosol size distribution. In this study, we investigate which of these above-mentioned factors cause the largest variability in the modeled optical depth of water. In order to do this, we have developed a tool that calculates aerosol extinction using interchangeable global 3D data of aerosol composition, relative humidity, and aerosol size distribution fields. This data is obtained from models that have taken part in the open international initiative AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models). In addition, we use global 3D data for relative humidity from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) flying on board NASA's Aqua satellite and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data. These observations are used to evaluate the modeled relative humidity fields. In the first stage of the study, we made a detailed investigation using the aerosol-chemistry-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ in which most of the aerosol optical depth is caused by water. Our results show that the model significantly overestimates the relative humidity over the oceans while over land, the overestimation is lower or it is underestimated. Since this overestimation occurs over the oceans, the water optical depth is amplified as the hygroscopic growth is very sensitive to changes in high relative humidities. Over land, error in modeled relative humidity is unlikely to cause significant errors in water optical depth as relative humidities are generally

  4. Global aerosol effects on convective clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner, Till; Stier, Philip

    2013-04-01

    Atmospheric aerosols affect cloud properties, and thereby the radiation balance of the planet and the water cycle. The influence of aerosols on clouds is dominated by increase of cloud droplet and ice crystal numbers (CDNC/ICNC) due to enhanced aerosols acting as cloud condensation and ice nuclei. In deep convective clouds this increase in CDNC/ICNC is hypothesised to increase precipitation because of cloud invigoration through enhanced freezing and associated increased latent heat release caused by delayed warm rain formation. Satellite studies robustly show an increase of cloud top height (CTH) and precipitation with increasing aerosol optical depth (AOD, as proxy for aerosol amount). To represent aerosol effects and study their influence on convective clouds in the global climate aerosol model ECHAM-HAM, we substitute the standard convection parameterisation, which uses one mean convective cloud for each grid column, with the convective cloud field model (CCFM), which simulates a spectrum of convective clouds, each with distinct values of radius, mixing ratios, vertical velocity, height and en/detrainment. Aerosol activation and droplet nucleation in convective updrafts at cloud base is the primary driver for microphysical aerosol effects. To produce realistic estimates for vertical velocity at cloud base we use an entraining dry parcel sub cloud model which is triggered by perturbations of sensible and latent heat at the surface. Aerosol activation at cloud base is modelled with a mechanistic, Köhler theory based, scheme, which couples the aerosols to the convective microphysics. Comparison of relationships between CTH and AOD, and precipitation and AOD produced by this novel model and satellite based estimates show general agreement. Through model experiments and analysis of the model cloud processes we are able to investigate the main drivers for the relationship between CTH / precipitation and AOD.

  5. Arctic stratospheric sulphur injections: radiative forcings and cloud responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lohmann, U.; Gasparini, B.; Miriam, K.; Kravitz, B.; Rasch, P. J.

    2014-12-01

    Observations and climate projections show a high sensitivity of the Arctic climate to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions, known as the polar amplification. This study evaluates the options of counteracting the rising polar temperatures by stratospheric sulphur injections in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes.10 Mt of sulphur dioxide are emitted in a point emission source setup centred at the 100 hPa pressure level over Svalbard island (80°N,15°E). We perform simulations with the general circulation models ECHAM5, ECHAM6, and GISS ModelE. We study pulsed emission simulations that differ among themselves by the injection starting date (March-September), injection length (1, 30, or 90 day emission period), and the vertical resolution of the model (for ECHAM6). We find injections in April to be the most efficient in terms of the shortwave radiative forcing at the top-of-the atmosphere over the Arctic region. The distribution of sulphate aerosol spreads out beyond the injection region, with a significant share reaching the Southern Hemisphere. Results from ModelE show high latitude injections could counteract the spring and summer temperature increase due to higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Preliminary results with a more realistic description of clouds in ECHAM-HAM reveal a complex pattern of responses, most notably: a decrease in Northern Hemisphere cirrus clouds strengthening the effect of stratospheric aerosols in ECHAM5 a decrease in low-level clouds over the Arctic increasing the incoming solar radiation and causing a net positive radiative balance cirrus clouds are resilient to stratospheric sulphur injections in the absence of sulphate warming

  6. Climate impacts of the ECLIPSE future emissions mitigation scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Laura; Collins, Bill; Olivie, Dirk; Cherian, Ribu; Quaas, Johannes; Myhre, Gunnar; Hodnebrog, Oivind; Skeie, Ragnhild

    2016-04-01

    We investigate the possible near-term climate benefits from mitigating aerosols, ozone and methane. The ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) project developed a realistic emissions inventory based on current legislation for 2005-2050 (CLE), and a corresponding mitigation scenario designed to be beneficial for both air quality and short-term climate impact (MIT). We determine the climate impacts of the MIT scenario, focussing on the period 2040-2050. Four climate models with interactive chemistry and aerosols (HadGEM, NorESM, CESM-CAM4 and ECHAM-HAM) are used to provide multi-model ensembles of both atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations, to separate the effective radiative forcing (ERF) and the climate response. The ERFs are derived from the atmosphere-only simulations. In all models the MIT scenario leads to a negative global ERF which is driven mainly by methane emissions reductions. There is variability between models in the relative importance of methane and aerosol emissions reductions, and in the sign of ERF response to aerosol emissions reductions. The climate response to MIT is derived from the coupled simulations. In all models, MIT results in a decrease in the global mean temperature compared to CLE, with a model mean decrease of 0.22°C. The temperature decrease is seen most strongly in the Northern Hemisphere and is particularly strong in the Arctic. The ensembles of coupled-ocean simulations have therefore enabled us to identify a robust cooling signal from the air quality mitigation scenarios, which can be attributed to the different species using the ERFs.

  7. Holistic aerosol evaluation using synthesized aerosol aircraft measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watson-Parris, Duncan; Reddington, Carly; Schutgens, Nick; Stier, Philip; Carslaw, Ken; Liu, Dantong; Allan, James; Coe, Hugh

    2016-04-01

    Despite ongoing efforts there are still large uncertainties in aerosol concentrations and loadings across many commonly used GCMs. This in turn leads to large uncertainties in the contributions of the direct and indirect aerosol forcing on climate. However, constraining these fields using earth observation data, although providing global coverage, is problematic for many reasons, including the large uncertainties in retrieving aerosol loadings. Additionally, the inability to retrieve aerosols in or around cloudy scenes leads to further sampling biases (Gryspeerdt 2015). Many in-situ studies have used regional datasets to attempt to evaluate the model uncertainties, but these are unable to provide an assessment of the models ability to represent aerosols properties on a global scale. Within the Global Aerosol Synthesis and Science Project (GASSP) we have assembled the largest collection of quality controlled, in-situ aircraft observations ever synthesized to a consistent format. This provides a global set of in-situ measurements of Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) and Black Carbon (BC), amongst others. In particular, the large number of vertical profiles provided by this aircraft data allows us to investigate the vertical structure of aerosols across a wide range of regions and environments. These vertical distributions are particularly valuable when investigating the dominant processes above or below clouds where remote sensing data is not available. Here we present initial process-based assessments of the BC lifetimes and vertical distributions of CCN in the HadGEM-UKCA and ECHAM-HAM models using this data. We use point-by-point based comparisons to avoid the sampling issues associated with comparing spatio-temporal aggregations.

  8. Reallocation in modal aerosol models: impacts on predicting aerosol radiative effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korhola, T.; Kokkola, H.; Korhonen, H.; Partanen, A.-I.; Laaksonen, A.; Lehtinen, K. E. J.; Romakkaniemi, S.

    2014-01-01

    Atmospheric models often represent the aerosol particle size distribution with a modal approach, in which particles are described with log-normal modes within predetermined size ranges. This approach reallocates particles numerically from one mode to another for example during particle growth, potentially leading to artificial changes in the aerosol size distribution. In this study we analysed how the modal reallocation affects climate-relevant variables: cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC), aerosol-cloud interaction parameter (ACI) and light extinction coefficient (qext). The ACI parameter gives the response of CDNC to a change in total aerosol number concentration. We compared these variables between a modal model (with and without reallocation routines) and a high resolution sectional model, which was considered a reference model. We analysed the relative differences in the chosen variables in four experiments designed to assess the influence of atmospheric aerosol processes. We find that limiting the allowed size ranges of the modes, and subsequent remapping of the distribution, leads almost always to an underestimation of cloud droplet number concentrations (by up to 100%) and an overestimation of light extinction (by up to 20%). On the other hand, the aerosol-cloud interaction parameter can be either over- or underestimated by the reallocating model, depending on the conditions. For example, in the case of atmospheric new particle formation events followed by rapid particle growth, the reallocation can cause on average a 10% overestimation of the ACI parameter. Thus it is shown that the reallocation affects the ability of a model to estimate aerosol climate effects accurately, and this should be taken into account when using and developing aerosol models.

  9. Evaluation of autoconversion schemes in a single model framework with satellite observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michibata, Takuro; Takemura, Toshihiko

    2015-09-01

    We examined the performance of autoconversion (mass transfer from cloud water to rainwater by the coalescence of cloud droplets) schemes in warm rain, which are commonly used in general circulation models. To exclude biases in the different treatment of the aerosol-cloud-precipitation-radiation interaction other than that of the autoconversion process, sensitivity experiments were conducted within a single model framework using an aerosol-climate model, MIROC-SPRINTARS. The liquid water path (LWP) and cloud optical thickness have a particularly high sensitivity to the autoconversion schemes, and their sensitivity is of the same magnitude as model biases. In addition, the ratio of accretion to autoconversion (Acc/Aut ratio), a key parameter in the examination of the balance of microphysical conversion processes, also has a high sensitivity globally depending on the scheme used. Although the Acc/Aut ratio monotonically increases with increasing LWP, significantly lower ratio is observed in Kessler-type schemes. Compared to satellite observations, a poor representation of cloud macrophysical structure and optically thicker low cloud are found in simulations with any autoconversion scheme. As a result of the cloud-radiation interaction, the difference in the global mean net cloud radiative forcing (NetCRF) among the schemes reaches 10 Wm-2. The discrepancy between the observed and simulated NetCRF is especially large with a high LWP. The potential uncertainty in the parameterization of the autoconversion process is nonnegligible, and no formulation significantly improves the bias in the cloud radiative effect yet. This means that more fundamental errors are still left in other processes of the model.

  10. Modelled radiative effects of sea spray aerosol using a source function encapsulating wave state

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Dunne, Eimear M.; Bergman, Tommi; Laakso, Anton; Kokkola, Harri; Ovadnevaite, Jurgita; Sogacheva, Larisa; Baisnée, Dominique; Sciare, Jean; Manders, Astrid; O'Dowd, Colin; de Leeuw, Gerrit; Korhonen, Hannele

    2014-05-01

    Sea spray aerosol particles have significant effects on global climate by scattering solar radiation (direct effect) and modifying cloud properties (indirect effect). Sea spray consists mainly of sea salt, but in biologically active regions, major fraction of sea spray may come in the form of primary marine organic matter (PMOM). Traditionally, sea spray flux has been parameterized in global models in terms of wind speed, and organic fraction of sea spray in terms of chlorophyll-a concentration. In this study, we have incorporated recently developed parameterizations for the sea spray aerosol source flux into the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ. The parameterizations encapsulate the wave state via Reynolds number, and predict the organic fraction of the sea spray aerosol source flux. The model was then used to investigate the direct and indirect effects of sea spray aerosol particles. We compared simulated sea spray concentrations with in-situ measurements from Mace Head (North Atlantic), Point Reyes (North Pacific), and Amsterdam Island (Southern Indian Ocean). Aerosol optical depth (AOD) was compared with satellite measurements from PARASOL. Modelled annual mean global emissions of sea salt and PMOM were 805 Tg yr-1 (uncertainty range of 378-1233 Tg yr-1) and 1.1 Tg yr-1 (0.5-1.8 Tg yr-1), respectively. Sea salt emissions were considerably lower than the majority of previous estimates, but PMOM was in the range of previous studies. The model captured sea salt concentrations fairly well in the smaller size ranges at Mace Head (annual normalized mean bias of -13% for particles with vacuum aerodynamic diameter Dva

  11. Dehydration effects from contrails in a coupled contrail-climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schumann, U.; Penner, J. E.; Chen, Yibin; Zhou, Cheng; Graf, K.

    2015-10-01

    The uptake of water by contrails in ice-supersaturated air and the release of water after ice particle advection and sedimentation dehydrates the atmosphere at flight levels and redistributes humidity mainly to lower levels. The dehydration is investigated by coupling a plume-scale contrail model with a global aerosol-climate model. The contrail model simulates all the individual contrails forming from global air traffic for meteorological conditions as defined by the climate model. The computed contrail cirrus properties compare reasonably with theoretical concepts and observations. The mass of water in aged contrails may exceed 106 times the mass of water emitted from aircraft. Many of the ice particles sediment and release water in the troposphere, on average 700 m below the mean flight levels. Simulations with and without coupling are compared. The drying at contrail levels causes thinner and longer-lived contrails with about 15 % reduced contrail radiative forcing (RF). The reduced RF from contrails is on the order of 0.06 W m-2, slightly larger than estimated earlier because of higher soot emissions. For normal traffic, the RF from dehydration is small compared to interannual variability. A case with emissions increased by 100 times is used to overcome statistical uncertainty. The contrails impact the entire hydrological cycle in the atmosphere by reducing the total water column and the cover by high- and low-level clouds. For normal traffic, the dehydration changes contrail RF by positive shortwave and negative longwave contributions on the order of 0.04 W m-2, with a small negative net RF. The total net RF from contrails and dehydration remains within the range of previous estimates.

  12. Dehydration effects from contrails in a coupled contrail-climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schumann, U.; Penner, J. E.; Chen, Y.; Zhou, C.; Graf, K.

    2015-07-01

    Uptake of water by contrails in ice-supersaturated air and release of water after ice particle advection and sedimentation dehydrates the atmosphere at flight levels and redistributes humidity mainly to lower levels. The dehydration is investigated by coupling a plume-scale contrail model with a global aerosol-climate model. The contrail model simulates all the individual contrails forming from global air traffic for meteorological conditions as defined by the climate model. The computed contrail-cirrus properties compare reasonably with theoretical concepts and observations. The mass of water in aged contrails may exceed 106 times the mass of water emitted from aircraft. Many of the ice particles sediment and release water in the troposphere, on average 700 m below the mean flight levels. Simulations with and without coupling are compared. The drying at contrail levels causes thinner and longer lived contrails with about 15 % reduced contrail radiative forcing (RF). The reduced RF from contrails is of the order 0.06 W m-2, slightly larger than estimated earlier because of higher soot emissions. For normal traffic, the RF from dehydration is small compared to interannual variability. A case with 100 times increased emissions is used to overcome statistical uncertainty. The contrails impact the entire hydrological cycle in the atmosphere by reducing the total water column and the cover of high and low-level clouds. For normal traffic, the dehydration changes contrail RF by positive shortwave and negative longwave contributions of order 0.04 W m-2, with a small negative net RF. The total net RF from contrails and dehydration remains within the range of previous estimates.

  13. Using the Convective Cloud Field Model (CCFM) to investigate aerosol-convection interactions in ECHAM6-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kipling, Zak; Stier, Philip; Wagner, Till

    2014-05-01

    Convection plays an important role in the climate system through its effects on radiation, precipitation, large-scale dynamics and vertical transport of aerosols and trace gases. The effects of aerosols on the development of convective cloud and precipitation are a source of considerable uncertainty in current climate modelling. Most current global climate models use 'mass-flux' convection schemes, which represent the ensemble of convective clouds in a GCM column by a single 'mean' updraught. In addition to over-simplifying the representation of such clouds, this presents particular problems in the context of aerosol-convection interactions: firstly because the relationship between aerosol and the droplet size distribution depends on the vertical velocity distribution, about which little or no information is available, and secondly because the effects of convective transport and scavenging may vary nonlinearly over the ensemble (e.g. between precipitating and non-precipitating clouds and due to different loadings). The Convective Cloud Field Model (CCFM) addresses these limitations by simulating a spectrum of updraughts with different cross-sectional areas within each GCM column, based on the quasi-equilibrium approach of Arakawa and Schubert. For each cloud type, an entraining Lagrangian parcel model is initiated by perturbations at the surface, allowing a realistic vertical velocity to develop by cloud base so that detailed size-resolved microphysics can be represented within the cloud above. These different cloud types interact via competition for resolved-scale convective available potential energy (CAPE). Transport of water, aerosol and other tracers is calculated separately for each cloud type, allowing for different entrainment and scavenging behaviours. By using CCFM embedded within the ECHAM6-HAM aerosol-climate model, we show how this approach can both improve the distribution of convective precipitation events compared to a typical mass-flux scheme, and

  14. Evaluation of the tropospheric aerosol number concentrations simulated by two versions of the global model ECHAM5-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, K.; Kazil, J.; Feichter, J.

    2009-04-01

    Since its first version developed by Stier et al. (2005), the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM has gone through further development and updates. The changes in the model include (1) a new time integration scheme for the condensation of the sulfuric acid gas on existing particles, (2) a new aerosol nucleation scheme that takes into account the charged nucleation caused by cosmic rays, and (3) a parameterization scheme explicitly describing the conversion of aerosol particles to cloud nuclei. In this work, simulations performed with the old and new model versions are evaluated against some measurements reported in recent years. The focus is on the aerosol size distribution in the troposphere. Results show that modifications in the parameterizations have led to significant changes in the simulated aerosol concentrations. Vertical profiles of the total particle number concentration (diameter > 3nm) compiled by Clarke et al. (2002) suggest that, over the Pacific in the upper free troposphere, the tropics are associated with much higher concentrations than the mid-latitude regions. This feature is more reasonably reproduced by the new model version, mainly due to the improved results of the nucleation mode aerosols. In the lower levels (2-5 km above the Earth's surface), the number concentrations of the Aitken mode particles are overestimated compared to both the Pacific data given in Clarke et al. (2002) and the vertical profiles over Europe reported by Petzold et al. (2007). The physical and chemical processes that have led to these changes are identified by sensitivity tests. References: Clarke and Kapustin: A Pacific aerosol survey - part 1: a decade of data on production, transport, evolution and mixing in the troposphere, J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 363-382, 2002. Petzold et al.: Perturbation of the European free troposphere aerosol by North American forest fire plumes during the ICARTT-ITOP experiment in summer 2004, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 5105-5127, 2007

  15. Progress in Global Multicompartmental Modelling of DDT

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stemmler, I.; Lammel, G.

    2009-04-01

    input parameters. Furthermore, better resolution of some processes could improve model performance. References: Marsland S.J., Haak H., Jungclaus J.H., Latif M., Röske F. (2003): The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates. Ocean Modelling 5, 91-127 Maier-Reimer E. , Kriest I., Segschneider J., Wetzel P. : The HAMburg Ocean Carbon Cycle Model HAMOCC 5.1 - Technical Description Release 1.1 (2005),Reports on Earth System Science 14 Stier P. , Feichter J. (2005), Kinne S., Kloster S., Vignati E., Wilson J.Ganzeveld L., Tegen I., Werner M., Blakanski Y., Schulz M., Boucher O., Minikin A., Petzold A.: The aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM. Atmos. Chem. Phys 5, 1125-1156 Semeena V.S., Feichter J., Lammel G. (2006): Impact of the regional climate and substance properties on the fate and atmospheric long-range transport of persistent organic pollutants - examples of DDT and γ-HCH. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 6, 1231-1248

  16. Climate impact of biofuels in shipping: global model studies of the aerosol indirect effect.

    PubMed

    Righi, Mattia; Klinger, Carolin; Eyring, Veronika; Hendricks, Johannes; Lauer, Axel; Petzold, Andreas

    2011-04-15

    Aerosol emissions from international shipping are recognized to have a large impact on the Earth's radiation budget, directly by scattering and absorbing solar radiation and indirectly by altering cloud properties. New regulations have recently been approved by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) aiming at progressive reductions of the maximum sulfur content allowed in marine fuels from current 4.5% by mass down to 0.5% in 2020, with more restrictive limits already applied in some coastal regions. In this context, we use a global bottom-up algorithm to calculate geographically resolved emission inventories of gaseous (NO(x), CO, SO(2)) and aerosol (black carbon, organic matter, sulfate) species for different kinds of low-sulfur fuels in shipping. We apply these inventories to study the resulting changes in radiative forcing, attributed to particles from shipping, with the global aerosol-climate model EMAC-MADE. The emission factors for the different fuels are based on measurements at a test bed of a large diesel engine. We consider both fossil fuel (marine gas oil) and biofuels (palm and soy bean oil) as a substitute for heavy fuel oil in the current (2006) fleet and compare their climate impact to that resulting from heavy fuel oil use. Our simulations suggest that ship-induced surface level concentrations of sulfate aerosol are strongly reduced, up to about 40-60% in the high-traffic regions. This clearly has positive consequences for pollution reduction in the vicinity of major harbors. Additionally, such reductions in the aerosol loading lead to a decrease of a factor of 3-4 in the indirect global aerosol effect induced by emissions from international shipping. PMID:21428387

  17. The Role of Atmospheric Aerosol Concentration on Deep Convective Precipitation: Cloud-resolving Model Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, W.-K.; Li, X.; Khain, A.; Mastsui, T.; Lang, S.; Simpson, J.

    2007-01-01

    Aerosols and especially their effect on clouds are one of the key components of the climate system and the hydrological cycle [Ramanathan et al., 20011. Yet, the aerosol effect on clouds remains largely unknown and the processes involved not well understood. A recent report published by the National Academy of Science states "The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forcing - indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties about global climate forcing - is probably the indirect effect of aerosols on clouds NRC [2001]." The aerosol effect on clouds is often categorized into the traditional "first indirect (i.e., Twomey)" effect on the cloud droplet sizes for a constant liquid water path and the "semi-direct" effect on cloud coverage. The aerosol effect on precipitation processes, also known as the second type of aerosol indirect effect, is even more complex, especially for mixed-phase convective clouds. ln this paper, a cloud-resolving model (CRM) with detailed spectral-bin microphysics was used to examine the effect of aerosols on three different deep convective cloud systems that developed in different geographic locations: South Florida, Oklahoma and the Central Pacific. In all three cases, rain reaches the ground earlier for the low CCN (clean) case. Rain suppression is also evident in all three cases with high CCN (dirty) case. However, this suppression only occurs during the first hour of the simulations. During the mature stages of the simulations, the effects of increasing aerosol concentration range from rain suppression in the Oklahoma case, to almost no effect in the Florida case, to rain enhancement in the Pacific case. These results show the complexity of aerosol interactions with convection.

  18. Carbonaceous aerosols recorded in a southeastern Tibetan glacier: analysis of temporal variations and model estimates of sources and radiative forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, M.; Xu, B.; Cao, J.; Tie, X.; Wang, H.; Zhang, R.; Qian, Y.; Rasch, P. J.; Zhao, S.; Wu, G.; Zhao, H.; Joswiak, D. R.; Li, J.; Xie, Y.

    2015-02-01

    High temporal resolution measurements of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) covering the time period of 1956-2006 in an ice core over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau show a distinct seasonal dependence of BC and OC with higher respective concentrations but a lower OC / BC ratio in the non-monsoon season than during the summer monsoon. We use a global aerosol-climate model, in which BC emitted from different source regions can be explicitly tracked, to quantify BC source-receptor relationships between four Asian source regions and the southeastern Tibetan Plateau as a receptor. The model results show that South Asia has the largest contribution to the present-day (1996-2005) mean BC deposition at the ice-core drilling site during the non-monsoon season (October to May) (81%) and all year round (74%), followed by East Asia (14% to the non-monsoon mean and 21% to the annual mean). The ice-core record also indicates stable and relatively low BC and OC deposition fluxes from the late 1950s to 1980, followed by an overall increase to recent years. This trend is consistent with the BC and OC emission inventories and the fuel consumption of South Asia (as the primary contributor to annual mean BC deposition). Moreover, the increasing trend of the OC / BC ratio since the early 1990s indicates a growing contribution of coal combustion and/or biomass burning to the emissions. The estimated radiative forcing induced by BC and OC impurities in snow has increased since 1980, suggesting an increasing potential influence of carbonaceous aerosols on the Tibetan glacier melting and the availability of water resources in the surrounding regions. Our study indicates that more attention to OC is merited because of its non-negligible light absorption and the recent rapid increases evident in the ice-core record.

  19. Carbonaceous aerosols recorded in a southeastern Tibetan glacier: analysis of temporal variations and model estimates of sources and radiative forcing

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Wang, Mo; Xu, B.; Cao, J.; Tie, X.; Wang, Hailong; Zhang, Rudong; Qian, Yun; Rasch, Philip J.; Zhao, Shuyu; Wu, Guangjian; et al

    2015-02-02

    High temporal resolution measurements of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) covering the time period of 1956–2006 in an ice core over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau show a distinct seasonal dependence of BC and OC with higher respective concentrations but a lower OC / BC ratio in the non-monsoon season than during the summer monsoon. We use a global aerosol-climate model, in which BC emitted from different source regions can be explicitly tracked, to quantify BC source–receptor relationships between four Asian source regions and the southeastern Tibetan Plateau as a receptor. The model results show that South Asia hasmore » the largest contribution to the present-day (1996–2005) mean BC deposition at the ice-core drilling site during the non-monsoon season (October to May) (81%) and all year round (74%), followed by East Asia (14% to the non-monsoon mean and 21% to the annual mean). The ice-core record also indicates stable and relatively low BC and OC deposition fluxes from the late 1950s to 1980, followed by an overall increase to recent years. This trend is consistent with the BC and OC emission inventories and the fuel consumption of South Asia (as the primary contributor to annual mean BC deposition). Moreover, the increasing trend of the OC / BC ratio since the early 1990s indicates a growing contribution of coal combustion and/or biomass burning to the emissions. The estimated radiative forcing induced by BC and OC impurities in snow has increased since 1980, suggesting an increasing potential influence of carbonaceous aerosols on the Tibetan glacier melting and the availability of water resources in the surrounding regions. Our study indicates that more attention to OC is merited because of its non-negligible light absorption and the recent rapid increases evident in the ice-core record.« less

  20. Carbonaceous aerosols recorded in a southeastern Tibetan glacier: analysis of temporal variations and model estimates of sources and radiative forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Mo; Xu, B.; Cao, J.; Tie, X.; Wang, Hailong; Zhang, Rudong; Qian, Yun; Rasch, Philip J.; Zhao, Shuyu; Wu, Guangjian; Zhao, Huabiao; Joswiak, Daniel R.; Li, Jiule; Xie, Ying

    2015-02-02

    High temporal resolution measurements of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) covering the time period of 1956–2006 in an ice core over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau show a distinct seasonal dependence of BC and OC with higher respective concentrations but a lower OC / BC ratio in the non-monsoon season than during the summer monsoon. We use a global aerosol-climate model, in which BC emitted from different source regions can be explicitly tracked, to quantify BC source–receptor relationships between four Asian source regions and the southeastern Tibetan Plateau as a receptor. The model results show that South Asia has the largest contribution to the present-day (1996–2005) mean BC deposition at the ice-core drilling site during the non-monsoon season (October to May) (81%) and all year round (74%), followed by East Asia (14% to the non-monsoon mean and 21% to the annual mean). The ice-core record also indicates stable and relatively low BC and OC deposition fluxes from the late 1950s to 1980, followed by an overall increase to recent years. This trend is consistent with the BC and OC emission inventories and the fuel consumption of South Asia (as the primary contributor to annual mean BC deposition). Moreover, the increasing trend of the OC / BC ratio since the early 1990s indicates a growing contribution of coal combustion and/or biomass burning to the emissions. The estimated radiative forcing induced by BC and OC impurities in snow has increased since 1980, suggesting an increasing potential influence of carbonaceous aerosols on the Tibetan glacier melting and the availability of water resources in the surrounding regions. Our study indicates that more attention to OC is merited because of its non-negligible light absorption and the recent rapid increases evident in the ice-core record.

  1. Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Loth, E.; Tryggvason, G.; Tsuji, Y.; Elghobashi, S. E.; Crowe, Clayton T.; Berlemont, A.; Reeks, M.; Simonin, O.; Frank, Th; Onishi, Yasuo; Van Wachem, B.

    2005-09-01

    Slurry flows occur in many circumstances, including chemical manufacturing processes, pipeline transfer of coal, sand, and minerals; mud flows; and disposal of dredged materials. In this section we discuss slurry flow applications related to radioactive waste management. The Hanford tank waste solids and interstitial liquids will be mixed to form a slurry so it can be pumped out for retrieval and treatment. The waste is very complex chemically and physically. The ARIEL code is used to model the chemical interactions and fluid dynamics of the waste.

  2. Reconstruction of the Tambora forcing with global aerosol models : Challenges and limitations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khodri, Myriam; Zanchettin, Davide; Timmreck, Claudia

    2016-04-01

    It is now generally recognised that volcanic eruptions have an important effect on climate variability from inter-annual to decadal timescales. For the largest tropical volcanic eruptions of the last millennium, simulated volcanic surface cooling derived from climate models often disagrees with the cooling seen in tree-ring-based proxies. Furthermore, cooling estimates from simulations show large uncertainties. Such disagreement can be related to several sources, including inconsistency of the currently available volcanic forcing datasets, unrealistic modelled volcanic forcing, insufficient representation of relevant climate processes, and different background climate states simulated at the time of the eruption. In particular, for eruptions that occurred before the observational period forcing characteristics related to the eruption magnitude and stratospheric aerosol properties are deduced from indirect evidences. So, while climatically relevant forcing properties for recent volcanic eruptions are relatively well constrained by direct observations, large uncertainties remain regarding processes of aerosol formation and evolution in the stratosphere after large tropical eruptions of the remote past. Several coordinated modelling assessments have been defined to frame future modeling activities and constrain the above-mentioned uncertainties. Among these, the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) has endorsed a multi-model assessment focused on the climatic response to strong volcanic eruptions (VolMIP). VolMIP defines a protocol for idealized volcanic-perturbation experiments to improve comparability among climate model results. Identification of a consensual volcanic forcing dataset for the 1815 Tambora eruption is a key step of VolMIP, as it is the largest-magnitude volcanic eruption of the past five centuries and reference for the VolMIP core experiments. Therefore, as a first key step, five current/state-of-the-art global aerosol

  3. Development and basic evaluation of a prognostic aerosol scheme in the CNRM Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michou, M.; Nabat, P.; Saint-Martin, D.

    2014-09-01

    observed. A large interannual variability can also be seen in the CALIOP vertical profiles over certain regions of the world. Overall, this prognostic aerosol scheme appears suitable for aerosol-climate studies. There is room, however, for implementing more complex parameterisations in relation to aerosols.

  4. A new method for evaluating the impact of vertical distribution on aerosol radiative forcing in general circulation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vuolo, M. R.; Schulz, M.; Balkanski, Y.; Takemura, T.

    2014-01-01

    The quantification and understanding of direct aerosol forcing is essential in the study of climate. One of the main issues that makes its quantification difficult is the lack of a complete understanding of the role of the vertical distribution of aerosols and clouds. This work aims at reducing the uncertainty of aerosol top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) forcing due to the vertical superposition of several short-lived atmospheric components, in particular different aerosol species and clouds. We propose a method to quantify the contribution of different parts of the atmospheric column to the TOA forcing as well as to evaluate the contribution to model differences that is exclusively due to different spatial distributions of aerosols and clouds. We investigate the contribution of aerosol above, below and in clouds by using added diagnostics in the aerosol-climate model LMDz. We also compute the difference between the TOA forcing of the ensemble of the aerosols and the sum of the forcings from individual species in clear sky. This difference is found to be moderate for the global average (14%) but can reach high values regionally (up to 100%). Nonlinear effects are even more important when superposing aerosols and clouds. Four forcing computations are performed: one where the full aerosol 3-D distribution is used, and then three where aerosols are confined to regions above, inside and below clouds, respectively. We find that the TOA forcing of aerosols depends crucially on the presence of clouds and on their position relative to that of the aerosol, in particular for black carbon (BC). We observe a strong enhancement of the TOA forcing of BC above clouds, attenuation for BC below clouds, and a moderate enhancement when BC is found within clouds. BC above clouds accounts for only about 30% of the total BC optical depth but for 55% of the forcing, while forcing efficiency increases by a factor of 7.5 when passing from below to above clouds. The different behaviour of forcing

  5. Dust deposition in Antarctica in glacial and interglacial climate conditions: a modelling study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sudarchikova, N.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Timmreck, C.; O'Donnell, D.; Schurgers, G.; Sein, D.; Zhang, K.

    2014-09-01

    The mineral dust cycle responds to climate variations and plays an important role in the climate system by affecting the radiative balance of the atmosphere and modifying biogeochemistry. Polar ice cores provide a unique information about deposition of aeolian dust particles transported over long distance. These cores are a paleoclimate proxy archive of climate variability thousands of years ago. The current study is a first attempt to simulate past interglacial dust cycles with a global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM. The results are used to explain the dust deposition changes in Antarctica in terms of quantitative contribution of different processes, such as emission, atmospheric transport and precipitation, which will help to interpret paleodata from Antarctic ice cores. The investigated periods include four interglacial time-slices such as the pre-industrial control (CTRL), mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP), last glacial inception (115 000 yr BP) and Eemian (126 000 yr BP). One glacial time interval, which is Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr BP) was simulated as well as to be a reference test for the model. Results suggest an increase of mineral dust deposition globally, and in Antarctica, in the past interglacial periods relative to the pre-industrial CTRL simulation. Approximately two thirds of the increase in the mid-Holocene and Eemian is attributed to enhanced Southern Hemisphere dust emissions. Slightly strengthened transport efficiency causes the remaining one third of the increase in dust deposition. The moderate change of dust deposition in Antarctica in the last glacial inception period is caused by the slightly stronger poleward atmospheric transport efficiency compared to the pre-industrial. Maximum dust deposition in Antarctica was simulated for the glacial period. LGM dust deposition in Antarctica is substantially increased due to 2.6 times higher Southern Hemisphere dust emissions, two times stronger atmospheric transport towards Antarctica, and

  6. The Impact of Aerosols on Cloud and Precipitation Processes: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Li, Xiaowen; Khain, Alexander; Matsui, Toshihisa; Lang, Stephen; Simpson, Joanne

    2008-01-01

    Aerosols and especially their effect on clouds are one of the key components of the climate system and the hydrological cycle [Ramanathan et al., 2001]. Yet, the aerosol effect on clouds remains largely unknown and the processes involved not well understood. A recent report published by the National Academy of Science states "The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forcing - indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties about global climate forcing - is probably the indirect effect of aerosols on clouds [NRC, 2001]." The aerosol effect on clouds is often categorized into the traditional "first indirect (i.e., Twomey)" effect on the cloud droplet sizes for a constant liquid water path [Twomey, 1977] and the "semi-direct" effect on cloud coverage [e.g., Ackerman et al ., 2001]." Enhanced aerosol concentrations can also suppress warm rain processes by producing a narrow droplet spectrum that inhibits collision and coalescence processes [e.g., Squires and Twomey, 1961; Warner and Twomey, 1967; Warner, 1968; Rosenfeld, 19991. The aerosol effect on precipitation processes, also known as the second type of aerosol indirect effect [Albrecht, 1989], is even more complex, especially for mixed-phase convective clouds. Table 1 summarizes the key observational studies identifying the microphysical properties, cloud characteristics, thermodynamics and dynamics associated with cloud systems from high-aerosol continental environments. For example, atmospheric aerosol concentrations can influence cloud droplet size distributions, warm-rain process, cold-rain process, cloud-top height, the depth of the mixed phase region, and occurrence of lightning. In addition, high aerosol concentrations in urban environments could affect precipitation variability by providing an enhanced source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Hypotheses have been developed to explain the effect of urban regions on convection and precipitation [van den Heever and Cotton, 2007 and Shepherd, 2005

  7. Development and basic evaluation of a prognostic aerosol scheme (v1) in the CNRM Climate Model CNRM-CM6

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michou, M.; Nabat, P.; Saint-Martin, D.

    2015-03-01

    , correlation coefficients higher than 0.5 and lower model variance than observed. A large interannual variability can also be seen in the CALIOP vertical profiles over certain regions of the world. Overall, this prognostic aerosol scheme appears promising for aerosol-climate studies. There is room, however, for implementing more complex parameterisations in relation to aerosols.

  8. Global modelling of direct and indirect effects of sea spray aerosol using a source function encapsulating wave state

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Partanen, A.-I.; Dunne, E. M.; Bergman, T.; Laakso, A.; Kokkola, H.; Ovadnevaite, J.; Sogacheva, L.; Baisnée, D.; Sciare, J.; Manders, A.; O'Dowd, C.; de Leeuw, G.; Korhonen, H.

    2014-02-01

    Recently developed parameterizations for the sea spray aerosol source flux, encapsulating wave state, and its organic fraction were incorporated into the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ to investigate the direct and indirect radiative effects of sea spray aerosol particles. Our simulated global sea salt emission of 805 Tg yr-1 (uncertainty range 378-1233 Tg yr-1) was much lower than typically found in previous studies. Modelled sea salt and sodium ion concentrations agreed relatively well with measurements in the smaller size ranges at Mace Head (annual normalized mean model bias -13% for particles with vacuum aerodynamic diameter Dva < 1 μm), Point Reyes (-29% for particles with aerodynamic diameter Da < 2.5 μm) and Amsterdam Island (-52% for particles with Da < 1 μm) but the larger sizes were overestimated (899% for particles with 2.5 μm model clearly underestimated the observed concentrations of organic or total carbonaceous aerosol at Mace Head (-82%) and Amsterdam Island (-68%). The large overestimation (212%) of organic matter at Point Reyes was due to the contribution of continental sources. At the remote Amsterdam Island site, the organic concentration was underestimated especially in the biologically active months, suggesting a need to improve the parameterization of the organic sea spray fraction. Globally, the satellite-retrieved AOD over the oceans, using PARASOL data, was underestimated by the model (means over ocean 0.16 and 0.10, respectively); however, in the pristine region around Amsterdam Island the measured AOD fell well within the simulated uncertainty range. The simulated sea spray aerosol contribution to the indirect radiative effect was positive (0.3 W m-2), in contrast to previous studies. This positive effect was ascribed to the tendency of sea salt aerosol to

  9. Global modelling of direct and indirect effects of sea spray aerosol using a source function encapsulating wave state

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Partanen, A.-I.; Dunne, E. M.; Bergman, T.; Laakso, A.; Kokkola, H.; Ovadnevaite, J.; Sogacheva, L.; Baisnée, D.; Sciare, J.; Manders, A.; O'Dowd, C.; de Leeuw, G.; Korhonen, H.

    2014-11-01

    Recently developed parameterizations for the sea spray aerosol source flux, encapsulating wave state, and its organic fraction were incorporated into the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ to investigate the direct and indirect radiative effects of sea spray aerosol particles. Our simulated global sea salt emission of 805 Tg yr-1 (uncertainty range 378-1233 Tg yr-1) was much lower than typically found in previous studies. Modelled sea salt and sodium ion concentrations agreed relatively well with measurements in the smaller size ranges at Mace Head (annual normalized mean model bias -13% for particles with vacuum aerodynamic diameter Dva < 1 μm), Point Reyes (-29% for particles with aerodynamic diameter Da < 2.5 μm) and Amsterdam Island (-52% for particles with Da < 1 μm) but the larger sizes were overestimated (899% for particles with 2.5 μm < Da < 10 μm) at Amsterdam Island. This suggests that at least the high end of the previous estimates of sea spray mass emissions is unrealistic. On the other hand, the model clearly underestimated the observed concentrations of organic or total carbonaceous aerosol at Mace Head (-82%) and Amsterdam Island (-68%). The large overestimation (212%) of organic matter at Point Reyes was due to the contribution of continental sources. At the remote Amsterdam Island site, the organic concentration was underestimated especially in the biologically active months, suggesting a need to improve the parameterization of the organic sea spray fraction. Globally, the satellite-retrieved AOD over the oceans, using PARASOL data, was underestimated by the model (means over ocean 0.16 and 0.10, respectively); however, in the pristine region around Amsterdam Island the measured AOD fell well within the simulated uncertainty range. The simulated sea spray aerosol contribution to the indirect radiative effect was positive (0.3 W m-2), in contrast to previous studies. This positive effect was ascribed to the tendency of sea salt aerosol to

  10. The Role of Atmospheric Aerosol Concentration on Deep Convective Precipitation: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Li, Xiaowen; Khain, Alexander; Matsui, Toshihisa; Lang, Stephen; Simpson, Joanne

    2010-01-01

    Aerosols and especially their effect on clouds are one of the key components of the climate system and the hydrological cycle [Ramanathan et al., 2001]. Yet, the aerosol effect on clouds remains largely unknown and the processes involved not well understood. A recent report published by the National Academy of Science states "The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forcing - indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties about global climate forcing - is probably the indirect effect of aerosols on clouds NRC [2001]." The aerosol effect on Clouds is often categorized into the traditional "first indirect (i.e., Twomey)" effect on the cloud droplet sizes for a constant liquid water path and the "semi-direct" effect on cloud coverage. The aerosol effect on precipitation processes, also known as the second type of aerosol indirect effect, is even more complex, especially for mixed-phase convective clouds. In this paper, a cloud-resolving model (CRM) with detailed spectral-bin microphysics was used to examine the effect of aerosols on three different deep convective cloud systems that developed in different geographic locations: South Florida, Oklahoma and the Central Pacific, In all three cases, rain reaches the ground earlier for the low CCN (clean) case. Rain suppression is also evident in all three cases with high CCN (dirty) case. However, this suppression only occurs during the first hour of the simulations. During the mature stages of the simulations, the effects of increasing aerosol concentration range from rain suppression in the Oklahoma case, to almost no effect in the Florida case, to rain enhancement in the Pacific case. These results show the complexity of aerosol interactions with convection. The model results suggest that evaporative cooling is a key process in determining whether high CCN reduces or enhances precipitation. Stronger evaporative cooling can produce a stronger cold pool and thus stronger low-level convergence through interactions

  11. Investigation of the impacts of Asian pollution on Pacific storm track using multi-scale modeling results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Y.; Wang, M.; Ghan, S. J.; Zhang, R.

    2012-12-01

    Long-term satellite data and numerical simulations with the cloud-resolving model (CRM) suggest that increasing pollution levels in Asia and associated outflows may impact the Pacific storm track by altering cloud development, lifetime, albedo, and precipitation. In this study, results from a pair of 6-year global atmosphere simulations were analyzed, using the multi-scale aerosol-climate model PNNL-MMF where a CRM is embedded within each grid column of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Two different aerosol conditions are considered in the simulations, representing Present Day (PD) and Pre-Industrial (PI) emissions, respectively. A comparison of those two scenarios shows that over the Northwest Pacific region aerosol optical depth is increased by 50% and cloud droplet number concentration is doubled under the influence of Asian pollution outflow. Meanwhile, cloud liquid water path and ice water path are enhanced by 9% and 8% due to the elevated aerosol loading in the PD case. The larger percentage of convective cloud coverage and the higher cloud top height in the PD case demonstrate that the convection strength of mid-latitude cyclones is invigorated. A 3% increase of precipitation induced by the larger PD aerosol concentration is found over the Northwest Pacific area. Smaller cloud droplets and the larger liquid and ice water path lead to the increase of cloud optical thickness by 10% in the PD case. Cloud shortwave and longwave forcing at the top of atmosphere (TOA) are enlarged by 7% and 6%, respectively. The poleward eddy heat transport along the storm track at 850 hPa is enhanced by 5% in the PD case. In addition, the results from the standard CAM model (no embedded CRM), simulates a similar increase in the aerosol concentration in the PD case but predicts significant suppression of the convection strength and heavy precipitation associated with the cyclones. This indicates that the multi-scale framework approach is critical for reproducing the aerosol

  12. Sensitivity of Remote Aerosol Distributions to Representation of Cloud-Aerosol Interactions in a Global Climate Model

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Hailong; Easter, Richard C.; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Minghuai; Liu, Xiaohong; Ghan, Steven J.; Qian, Yun; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Ma, Po-Lun; Vinoj, V.

    2013-06-05

    Many global aerosol and climate models, including the widely used Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), have large biases in predicting aerosols in remote regions such as upper troposphere and high latitudes. In this study, we conduct CAM5 sensitivity simulations to understand the role of key processes associated with aerosol transformation and wet removal affecting the vertical and horizontal long-range transport of aerosols to the remote regions. Improvements are made to processes that are currently not well represented in CAM5, which are guided by surface and aircraft measurements together with results from a multi-scale aerosol-climate model (PNNL-MMF) that explicitly represents convection and aerosol-cloud interactions at cloud-resolving scales. We pay particular attention to black carbon (BC) due to its importance in the Earth system and the availability of measurements. We introduce into CAM5 a new unified scheme for convective transport and aerosol wet removal with explicit aerosol activation above convective cloud base. This new implementation reduces the excessive BC aloft to better simulate observed BC profiles that show decreasing mixing ratios in the mid- to upper-troposphere. After implementing this new unified convective scheme, we examine wet removal of submicron aerosols that occurs primarily through cloud processes. The wet removal depends strongly on the sub-grid scale liquid cloud fraction and the rate of conversion of liquid water to precipitation. These processes lead to very strong wet removal of BC and other aerosols over mid- to high latitudes during winter months. With our improvements, the Arctic BC burden has a10-fold (5-fold) increase in the winter (summer) months, resulting in a much better simulation of the BC seasonal cycle as well. Arctic sulphate and other aerosol species also increase but to a lesser extent. An explicit treatment of BC aging with slower aging assumptions produces an additional 30-fold (5-fold) increase in

  13. Explicit entrainment parameterization in the general circulation model ECHAM5-HAM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siegenthaler-Le Drian, Colombe; Spichtinger, Peter; Lohmann, Ulrike

    2010-05-01

    stratocumulus when applying new parameterization. Moreover, even if the entrainment parameterization does not explicitly depend on the number of cloud droplets, the steep increase of liquid water path with increasing cloud droplet number concentration is reduced. Furthermore, the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) is crucially affected. First, its vertical profile is smoothed compared to the huge values in the standard version. Moreover, due to the explicit addition of radiative cooling in the buoyancy flux, the maximum of TKE occurs at cloud top (as in reality) and not at cloud base (as in the standard model version). Finally, the trade wind cumulus are better represented in terms of cloud cover. Indeed, the TKE source at cloud top enhances the latent heat flux, triggering the convective routine in shallow cumulus regions. References [Lenderink et al., 2000] Lenderink, G., Van Meijgaard, E., and Holtslag, A. M. (2000). Evaluation of the ECHAM4 cloud-turbulence scheme for stratocumulus. Meteorol. Z., 9(1):0041-47. [Lohmann et al., 2007] Lohmann, U., Stier, P., Hoose, C. et al. (2007). Cloud microphysics and aerosol indirect effects in the global climate model ECHAM5-HAM. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7:3425-3446. [Quaas et al., 2009] Quaas, J., Ming, Y., Menon, S. et al. (2009). Aerosol indirect effects - general circulation model intercomparison and evaluation with satellite data. Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 9:12731-12779. [Roeckner et al., 2003] Roeckner, E., Bäuml, G., Bonaventura, L. et al. (2003). The atmospheric general circulation modell echam5, part I: Model description. Technical Report 349, Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg,Germany. [Stier et al., 2005] Stier, P., Feichter, J., Kinne, S. et al. (2005). The aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5:1125-1156. [Turton and Nicholls, 1987] Turton, J. D. and Nicholls, S. (1987). A study of the diurnal variation of stratocumulus using a multiple mixed layer model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 113:969-1009.

  14. Sensitivity of Arctic mixed-phase clouds simulated with the global climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 to the heterogeneous freezing parameterization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ickes, Luisa; Welti, André; Hoose, Corinna; Lohmann, Ulrike

    2015-04-01

    different aerosol indirect effects in mixed-phase clouds. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9:8917-8934, 2009. [5] P. Stier et al. The aerosol-climate model echam5-ham. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5(4):1125-1156, 2005.

  15. A new method for evaluating the impact of vertical distribution on aerosol radiative forcing in general circulation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vuolo, M. R.; Schulz, M.; Balkanski, Y.; Takemura, T.

    2013-07-01

    The quantification and understanding of direct aerosol forcing is essential in the study of climate. One of the main issues that makes its quantification difficult is the lack of a complete comprehension of the role of the aerosol and clouds vertical distribution. This work aims at reducing the incertitude of aerosol forcing due to the vertical superposition of several short-lived atmospheric components, in particular different aerosols species and clouds. We propose a method to quantify the contribution of different parts of the atmospheric column to the forcing, and to evaluate model differences by isolating the effect of radiative interactions only. Any microphysical or thermo-dynamical interactions between aerosols and clouds are deactivated in the model, to isolate the effects of radiative flux coupling. We investigate the contribution of aerosol above, below and in clouds, by using added diagnostics in the aerosol-climate model LMDz. We also compute the difference between the forcing of the ensemble of the aerosols and the sum of the forcings from individual species, in clear-sky. This difference is found to be moderate on global average (14%) but can reach high values regionally (up to 100%). The non-additivity of forcing already for clear-sky conditions shows, that in addition to represent well the amount of individual aerosol species, it is critical to capture the vertical distribution of all aerosols. Nonlinear effects are even more important when superposing aerosols and clouds. Four forcing computations are performed, one where the full aerosol 3-D distribution is used, and then three where aerosols are confined to regions above, inside and below clouds respectively. We find that the forcing of aerosols depends crucially on the presence of clouds and on their position relative to that of the aerosol, in particular for black carbon (BC). We observe a strong enhancement of the forcing of BC above clouds, attenuation for BC below clouds, and a moderate

  16. Manipulating ship fuel sulfur content and modeling the effects on air quality and climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Laakso, Anton; Schmidt, Anja; Kokkola, Harri; Kuokkanen, Tuomas; Kerminen, Veli-Matti; Lehtinen, Kari E. J.; Laakso, Lauri; Korhonen, Hannele

    2013-04-01

    Aerosol emissions from international shipping are known to cause detrimental health effects on people mainly via increased lung cancer and cardiopulmonary diseases. On the other hand, the aerosol particles from the ship emissions modify the properties of clouds and are believed to have a significant cooling effect on the global climate. In recent years, aerosol emissions from shipping have been more strictly regulated in order to improve air quality and thus decrease the mortality due to ship emissions. Decreasing the aerosol emissions from shipping is projected to decrease their cooling effect, which would intensify the global warming even further. In this study, we use a global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5.5-HAM2 to test if continental air quality can be improved while still retaining the cooling effect from shipping. The model explicitly resolves emissions of aerosols and their pre-cursor gases. The model also calculates the interaction between aerosol particles and clouds, and can thus predict the changes in cloud properties due to aerosol emissions. We design and simulate a scenario where ship fuel sulfur content is strictly limited to 0.1% near all coastal regions, but doubled in the open oceans from the current global mean value of 2.7% (geo-ships). This scenario is compared to three other simulations: 1) No shipping emissions at all (no-ships), 2) present-day shipping emissions (std-ships) and 3) a future scenario where sulfur content is limited to 0.1% in the coastal zones and to 0.5% in the open ocean (future-ships). Global mean radiative flux perturbation (RFP) in std-ships compared to no-ships is calculated to be -0.4 W m-2, which is in the range of previous estimates for present-day shipping emissions. In the geo-ships simulation the corresponding global mean RFP is roughly equal, but RFP is spatially distributed more on the open oceans, as expected. In future-ships the decreased aerosol emissions provide weaker cooling effect of only -0.1 W m-2. In

  17. Integrated Analyses of Multiple Worldwide Aerosol Mass Spectrometer Datasets for Improved Understanding of Aerosol Sources and Processes and for Comparison with Global Models

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Qi; Jose, Jimenez Luis

    2014-04-28

    The AMS is the only current instrument that provides real-time, quantitative, and size-resolved data on submicron non-refractory aerosol species with a time resolution of a few minutes or better. The AMS field data are multidimensional and massive, containing extremely rich information on aerosol chemistry, microphysics and dynamics—basic information that is required to evaluate and quantify the radiative climate forcing of atmospheric aerosols. The high time resolution of the AMS data also reveals details of aerosol dynamic variations that are vital to understanding the physico-chemical processes of atmospheric aerosols that govern aerosol properties relevant to the climate. There are two primary objectives of this 3-year project. Our first objective is to perform highly integrated analysis of dozens of AMS datasets acquired from various urban, forested, coastal, marine, mountain peak, and rural/remote locations around the world and synthesize and inter-compare results with a focus on the sources and the physico-chemical processes that govern aerosol properties relevant to aerosol climate forcing. Our second objective is to support our collaboration with global aerosol modelers, in which we will supply the size-resolved aerosol composition and temporal variation data (via a public web interface) and our analysis results for use in model testing and validation and for translation of the rich AMS database into model constraints that can improve climate forcing simulations. Several prominent global aerosol modelers have expressed enthusiastic support for this collaboration. The specific tasks that we propose to accomplish include 1) to develop, validate, and apply multivariate analysis techniques for improved characterization and source apportionment of organic aerosols; 2) to evaluate aerosol source regions and relative contributions based on back-trajectory integration (PSCF method); 3) to summarize and synthesize submicron aerosol information, including

  18. A 4-D climatology (1979-2009) of the monthly tropospheric aerosol optical depth distribution over the Mediterranean region from a comparative evaluation and blending of remote sensing and model products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nabat, P.; Somot, S.; Mallet, M.; Chiapello, I.; Morcrette, J. J.; Solmon, F.; Szopa, S.; Dulac, F.; Collins, W.; Ghan, S.; Horowitz, L. W.; Lamarque, J. F.; Lee, Y. H.; Naik, V.; Nagashima, T.; Shindell, D.; Skeie, R.

    2013-05-01

    aerosols showing a large vertical spread, and other continental and marine aerosols which are confined in the boundary layer. From this compilation, we propose a 4-D blended product from model and satellite data, consisting in monthly time series of 3-D aerosol distribution at a 50 km horizontal resolution over the Euro-Mediterranean marine and continental region for the 2003-2009 period. The product is based on the total AOD from AQUA/MODIS, apportioned into sulfates, black and organic carbon from the MACC reanalysis, and into dust and sea-salt aerosols from RegCM-4 simulations, which are distributed vertically based on CALIOP climatology. We extend the 2003-2009 reconstruction to the past up to 1979 using the 2003-2009 average and applying the decreasing trend in sulfate aerosols from LMDz-OR-INCA, whose AOD trends over Europe and the Mediterranean are median among the ACCMIP models. Finally optical properties of the different aerosol types in this region are proposed from Mie calculations so that this reconstruction can be included in regional climate models for aerosol radiative forcing and aerosol-climate studies.

  19. A 4-D Climatology (1979-2009) of the Monthly Tropospheric Aerosol Optical Depth Distribution over the Mediterranean Region from a Comparative Evaluation and Blending of Remote Sensing and Model Products

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nabat, P.; Somot, S.; Mallet, M.; Chiapello, I; Morcrette, J. J.; Solomon, F.; Szopa, S.; Dulac, F; Collins, W.; Ghan, S.; Horowitz, L. W.; Lamarque, J. F.; Lee, Y. H.; Naik, V.; Nagashima, T.; Shindell, D.; Skeie, R.

    2013-01-01

    aerosols showing a large vertical spread, and other continental and marine aerosols which are confined in the boundary layer. From this compilation, we propose a 4-D blended product from model and satellite data, consisting in monthly time series of 3-D aerosol distribution at a 50 km horizontal resolution over the Euro-Mediterranean marine and continental region for the 2003-2009 period. The product is based on the total AOD from AQUA/MODIS, apportioned into sulfates, black and organic carbon from the MACC reanalysis, and into dust and sea-salt aerosols from RegCM-4 simulations, which are distributed vertically based on CALIOP climatology.We extend the 2003-2009 reconstruction to the past up to 1979 using the 2003-2009 average and applying the decreasing trend in sulfate aerosols from LMDz-OR-INCA, whose AOD trends over Europe and the Mediterranean are median among the ACCMIP models. Finally optical properties of the different aerosol types in this region are proposed from Mie calculations so that this reconstruction can be included in regional climate models for aerosol radiative forcing and aerosol-climate studies.

  20. Leadership Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Freeman, Thomas J.

    This paper discusses six different models of organizational structure and leadership, including the scalar chain or pyramid model, the continuum model, the grid model, the linking pin model, the contingency model, and the circle or democratic model. Each model is examined in a separate section that describes the model and its development, lists…

  1. Models and role models.

    PubMed

    ten Cate, Jacob M

    2015-01-01

    Developing experimental models to understand dental caries has been the theme in our research group. Our first, the pH-cycling model, was developed to investigate the chemical reactions in enamel or dentine, which lead to dental caries. It aimed to leverage our understanding of the fluoride mode of action and was also utilized for the formulation of oral care products. In addition, we made use of intra-oral (in situ) models to study other features of the oral environment that drive the de/remineralization balance in individual patients. This model addressed basic questions, such as how enamel and dentine are affected by challenges in the oral cavity, as well as practical issues related to fluoride toothpaste efficacy. The observation that perhaps fluoride is not sufficiently potent to reduce dental caries in the present-day society triggered us to expand our knowledge in the bacterial aetiology of dental caries. For this we developed the Amsterdam Active Attachment biofilm model. Different from studies on planktonic ('single') bacteria, this biofilm model captures bacteria in a habitat similar to dental plaque. With data from the combination of these models, it should be possible to study separate processes which together may lead to dental caries. Also products and novel agents could be evaluated that interfere with either of the processes. Having these separate models in place, a suggestion is made to design computer models to encompass the available information. Models but also role models are of the utmost importance in bringing and guiding research and researchers. PMID:25871413

  2. MODEL DEVELOPMENT - DOSE MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Model Development

    Humans are exposed to mixtures of chemicals from multiple pathways and routes. These exposures may result from a single event or may accumulate over time if multiple exposure events occur. The traditional approach of assessing risk from a single chemica...

  3. Promoting Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Qin; Zhao, Yongxin; Wu, Xiaofeng; Liu, Si

    There can be multitudinous models specifying aspects of the same system. Each model has a bias towards one aspect. These models often override in specific aspects though they have different expressions. A specification written in one model can be refined by introducing additional information from other models. The paper proposes a concept of promoting models which is a methodology to obtain refinements with support from cooperating models. It refines a primary model by integrating the information from a secondary model. The promotion principle is not merely an academic point, but also a reliable and robust engineering technique which can be used to develop software and hardware systems. It can also check the consistency between two specifications from different models. A case of modeling a simple online shopping system with the cooperation of the guarded design model and CSP model illustrates the practicability of the promotion principle.

  4. Models, Part IV: Inquiry Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Callison, Daniel

    2002-01-01

    Discusses models for information skills that include inquiry-oriented activities. Highlights include WebQuest, which uses Internet resources supplemented with videoconferencing; Minnesota's Inquiry Process based on the Big Six model for information problem-solving; Indiana's Student Inquiry Model; constructivist learning models for inquiry; and…

  5. Supermatrix models

    SciTech Connect

    Yost, S.A.

    1991-05-01

    Radom matrix models based on an integral over supermatrices are proposed as a natural extension of bosonic matrix models. The subtle nature of superspace integration allows these models to have very different properties from the analogous bosonic models. Two choices of integration slice are investigated. One leads to a perturbative structure which is reminiscent of, and perhaps identical to, the usual Hermitian matrix models. Another leads to an eigenvalue reduction which can be described by a two component plasma in one dimension. A stationary point of the model is described.

  6. Supermatrix models

    SciTech Connect

    Yost, S.A. . Dept. of Physics and Astronomy)

    1992-09-30

    In this paper, random matrix models based on an integral over supermatrices are proposed as a natural extension of bosonic matrix models. The subtle nature of superspace integration allows these models to have very different properties from the analogous bosonic models. Two choices of integration slice are investigated. One leads to a perturbative structure which is reminiscent of, and perhaps identical to, the usual Hermitian matrix models. Another leads to an eigenvalue reduction which can be described by a two-component plasma in one dimension. A stationary point of the model is described.

  7. MODELS - 3

    EPA Science Inventory

    Models-3 is a third generation air quality modeling system that contains a variety of tools to perform research and analysis of critical environmental questions and problems. These tools provide regulatory analysts and scientists with quicker results, greater scientific accuracy ...

  8. ENTRAINMENT MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation presented information on entrainment models. Entrainment models use entrainment hypotheses to express the continuity equation. The advantage is that plume boundaries are known. A major disadvantage is that the problems that can be solved are rather simple. The ...

  9. Turbulence modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rubesin, Morris W.

    1987-01-01

    Recent developments at several levels of statistical turbulence modeling applicable to aerodynamics are briefly surveyed. Emphasis is on examples of model improvements for transonic, two-dimensional flows. Experience with the development of these improved models is cited to suggest methods of accelerating the modeling process necessary to keep abreast of the rapid movement of computational fluid dynamics into the computation of complex three-dimensional flows.

  10. Waveguide model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1981-01-01

    A model is presented which quantifies the electromagnetic modes (field configurations) in the immediate vicinity of the rectenna element. Specifically, the waveguide model characterizes the electromagnetic modes generated by planar waves normal to the array. The model applies only to incidence normal to the array.

  11. Phoenix model

    EPA Science Inventory

    Phoenix (formerly referred to as the Second Generation Model or SGM) is a global general equilibrium model designed to analyze energy-economy-climate related questions and policy implications in the medium- to long-term. This model disaggregates the global economy into 26 industr...

  12. Radiation Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    James, W. G. G.

    1970-01-01

    Discusses the historical development of both the wave and the corpuscular photon model of light. Suggests that students should be informed that the two models are complementary and that each model successfully describes a wide range of radiation phenomena. Cites 19 references which might be of interest to physics teachers and students. (LC)

  13. Hydrological models are mediating models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babel, L. V.; Karssenberg, D.

    2013-08-01

    Despite the increasing role of models in hydrological research and decision-making processes, only few accounts of the nature and function of models exist in hydrology. Earlier considerations have traditionally been conducted while making a clear distinction between physically-based and conceptual models. A new philosophical account, primarily based on the fields of physics and economics, transcends classes of models and scientific disciplines by considering models as "mediators" between theory and observations. The core of this approach lies in identifying models as (1) being only partially dependent on theory and observations, (2) integrating non-deductive elements in their construction, and (3) carrying the role of instruments of scientific enquiry about both theory and the world. The applicability of this approach to hydrology is evaluated in the present article. Three widely used hydrological models, each showing a different degree of apparent physicality, are confronted to the main characteristics of the "mediating models" concept. We argue that irrespective of their kind, hydrological models depend on both theory and observations, rather than merely on one of these two domains. Their construction is additionally involving a large number of miscellaneous, external ingredients, such as past experiences, model objectives, knowledge and preferences of the modeller, as well as hardware and software resources. We show that hydrological models convey the role of instruments in scientific practice by mediating between theory and the world. It results from these considerations that the traditional distinction between physically-based and conceptual models is necessarily too simplistic and refers at best to the stage at which theory and observations are steering model construction. The large variety of ingredients involved in model construction would deserve closer attention, for being rarely explicitly presented in peer-reviewed literature. We believe that devoting

  14. Model Experiments and Model Descriptions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jackman, Charles H.; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Weisenstein, Debra; Scott, Courtney J.; Shia, Run-Lie; Rodriguez, Jose; Sze, N. D.; Vohralik, Peter; Randeniya, Lakshman; Plumb, Ian

    1999-01-01

    The Second Workshop on Stratospheric Models and Measurements Workshop (M&M II) is the continuation of the effort previously started in the first Workshop (M&M I, Prather and Remsberg [1993]) held in 1992. As originally stated, the aim of M&M is to provide a foundation for establishing the credibility of stratospheric models used in environmental assessments of the ozone response to chlorofluorocarbons, aircraft emissions, and other climate-chemistry interactions. To accomplish this, a set of measurements of the present day atmosphere was selected. The intent was that successful simulations of the set of measurements should become the prerequisite for the acceptance of these models as having a reliable prediction for future ozone behavior. This section is divided into two: model experiment and model descriptions. In the model experiment, participant were given the charge to design a number of experiments that would use observations to test whether models are using the correct mechanisms to simulate the distributions of ozone and other trace gases in the atmosphere. The purpose is closely tied to the needs to reduce the uncertainties in the model predicted responses of stratospheric ozone to perturbations. The specifications for the experiments were sent out to the modeling community in June 1997. Twenty eight modeling groups responded to the requests for input. The first part of this section discusses the different modeling group, along with the experiments performed. Part two of this section, gives brief descriptions of each model as provided by the individual modeling groups.

  15. Model Reduction in Groundwater Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeh, W. W. G.

    2014-12-01

    Model reduction has been shown to be a very effective method for reducing the computational burden of large-scale simulations. Model reduction techniques preserve much of the physical knowledge of the system and primarily seek to remove components from the model that do not provide significant information of interest. Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) is a model reduction technique by which a system of ordinary equations is projected onto a much smaller subspace in such a way that the span of the subspace is equal to the span of the original full model space. Basically, the POD technique selects a small number of orthonormal basis functions (principal components) that span the spatial variability of the solutions. In this way the state variable (head) is approximated by a linear combination of these basis functions and, using a Galerkin projection, the dimension of the problem is significantly reduced. It has been shown that for a highly discritized model, the reduced model can be two to three orders of magnitude smaller than the original model and runs 1,000 faster. More importantly, the reduced model captures the dominating characteristics of the full model and produces sufficiently accurate solutions. One of the major tasks in the development of the reduced model is the selection of snapshots which are used to determine the dominant eigenvectors. This paper discusses ways to optimize the snapshot selection. Additionally, the paper also discusses applications of the reduced model to parameter estimation, Monte Carlo simulation and experimental design in groundwater modeling.

  16. Modeling Pharmacokinetics.

    PubMed

    Bois, Frederic Y; Brochot, Céline

    2016-01-01

    Pharmacokinetics is the study of the fate of xenobiotics in a living organism. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models provide realistic descriptions of xenobiotics' absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion processes. They model the body as a set of homogeneous compartments representing organs, and their parameters refer to anatomical, physiological, biochemical, and physicochemical entities. They offer a quantitative mechanistic framework to understand and simulate the time-course of the concentration of a substance in various organs and body fluids. These models are well suited for performing extrapolations inherent to toxicology and pharmacology (e.g., between species or doses) and for integrating data obtained from various sources (e.g., in vitro or in vivo experiments, structure-activity models). In this chapter, we describe the practical development and basic use of a PBPK model from model building to model simulations, through implementation with an easily accessible free software. PMID:27311461

  17. Ventilation Model

    SciTech Connect

    H. Yang

    1999-11-04

    The purpose of this analysis and model report (AMR) for the Ventilation Model is to analyze the effects of pre-closure continuous ventilation in the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) emplacement drifts and provide heat removal data to support EBS design. It will also provide input data (initial conditions, and time varying boundary conditions) for the EBS post-closure performance assessment and the EBS Water Distribution and Removal Process Model. The objective of the analysis is to develop, describe, and apply calculation methods and models that can be used to predict thermal conditions within emplacement drifts under forced ventilation during the pre-closure period. The scope of this analysis includes: (1) Provide a general description of effects and heat transfer process of emplacement drift ventilation. (2) Develop a modeling approach to simulate the impacts of pre-closure ventilation on the thermal conditions in emplacement drifts. (3) Identify and document inputs to be used for modeling emplacement ventilation. (4) Perform calculations of temperatures and heat removal in the emplacement drift. (5) Address general considerations of the effect of water/moisture removal by ventilation on the repository thermal conditions. The numerical modeling in this document will be limited to heat-only modeling and calculations. Only a preliminary assessment of the heat/moisture ventilation effects and modeling method will be performed in this revision. Modeling of moisture effects on heat removal and emplacement drift temperature may be performed in the future.

  18. Climate Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Druyan, Leonard M.

    2012-01-01

    Climate models is a very broad topic, so a single volume can only offer a small sampling of relevant research activities. This volume of 14 chapters includes descriptions of a variety of modeling studies for a variety of geographic regions by an international roster of authors. The climate research community generally uses the rubric climate models to refer to organized sets of computer instructions that produce simulations of climate evolution. The code is based on physical relationships that describe the shared variability of meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity, precipitation rate, circulation, radiation fluxes, etc. Three-dimensional climate models are integrated over time in order to compute the temporal and spatial variations of these parameters. Model domains can be global or regional and the horizontal and vertical resolutions of the computational grid vary from model to model. Considering the entire climate system requires accounting for interactions between solar insolation, atmospheric, oceanic and continental processes, the latter including land hydrology and vegetation. Model simulations may concentrate on one or more of these components, but the most sophisticated models will estimate the mutual interactions of all of these environments. Advances in computer technology have prompted investments in more complex model configurations that consider more phenomena interactions than were possible with yesterday s computers. However, not every attempt to add to the computational layers is rewarded by better model performance. Extensive research is required to test and document any advantages gained by greater sophistication in model formulation. One purpose for publishing climate model research results is to present purported advances for evaluation by the scientific community.

  19. Phenomenological models

    SciTech Connect

    Braby, L.A.

    1990-09-01

    The biological effects of ionizing radiation exposure are the result of a complex sequence of physical, chemical, biochemical, and physiological interactions. One way to begin a search for an understanding of health effects of radiation is through the development of phenomenological models of the response. Many models have been presented and tested in the slowly evolving process of characterizing cellular response. A range of models covering different endpoints and phenomena has developed in parallel. Many of these models employ similar assumptions about some underlying processes while differing about the nature of others. An attempt is made to organize many of the models into groups with similar features and to compare the consequences of those features with the actual experimental observations. It is assumed that by showing that some assumptions are inconsistent with experimental observations, the job of devising and testing mechanistic models can be simplified. 43 refs., 13 figs.

  20. Building models

    SciTech Connect

    Burr, M.T.

    1995-04-01

    As developers make progress on independent power projects around the world, models for success are beginning to emerge. Different models are evolving to create ownership structures that accomoate a complex system of regulatory requirements. Other frameworks make use of previously untapped fuel resources, or establish new sources of financing; however, not all models may be applied to a given project. This article explores how developers are finding new alternatives for overcoming development challenges that are common to projects in many countries.

  1. Ventilation Model

    SciTech Connect

    V. Chipman

    2002-10-05

    The purpose of the Ventilation Model is to simulate the heat transfer processes in and around waste emplacement drifts during periods of forced ventilation. The model evaluates the effects of emplacement drift ventilation on the thermal conditions in the emplacement drifts and surrounding rock mass, and calculates the heat removal by ventilation as a measure of the viability of ventilation to delay the onset of peak repository temperature and reduce its magnitude. The heat removal by ventilation is temporally and spatially dependent, and is expressed as the fraction of heat carried away by the ventilation air compared to the fraction of heat produced by radionuclide decay. One minus the heat removal is called the wall heat fraction, or the remaining amount of heat that is transferred via conduction to the surrounding rock mass. Downstream models, such as the ''Multiscale Thermohydrologic Model'' (BSC 2001), use the wall heat fractions as outputted from the Ventilation Model to initialize their post-closure analyses. The Ventilation Model report was initially developed to analyze the effects of preclosure continuous ventilation in the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) emplacement drifts, and to provide heat removal data to support EBS design. Revision 00 of the Ventilation Model included documentation of the modeling results from the ANSYS-based heat transfer model. The purposes of Revision 01 of the Ventilation Model are: (1) To validate the conceptual model for preclosure ventilation of emplacement drifts and verify its numerical application in accordance with new procedural requirements as outlined in AP-SIII-10Q, Models (Section 7.0). (2) To satisfy technical issues posed in KTI agreement RDTME 3.14 (Reamer and Williams 2001a). Specifically to demonstrate, with respect to the ANSYS ventilation model, the adequacy of the discretization (Section 6.2.3.1), and the downstream applicability of the model results (i.e. wall heat fractions) to initialize post

  2. Model Selection for Geostatistical Models

    SciTech Connect

    Hoeting, Jennifer A.; Davis, Richard A.; Merton, Andrew A.; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2006-02-01

    We consider the problem of model selection for geospatial data. Spatial correlation is typically ignored in the selection of explanatory variables and this can influence model selection results. For example, the inclusion or exclusion of particular explanatory variables may not be apparent when spatial correlation is ignored. To address this problem, we consider the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) as applied to a geostatistical model. We offer a heuristic derivation of the AIC in this context and provide simulation results that show that using AIC for a geostatistical model is superior to the often used approach of ignoring spatial correlation in the selection of explanatory variables. These ideas are further demonstrated via a model for lizard abundance. We also employ the principle of minimum description length (MDL) to variable selection for the geostatistical model. The effect of sampling design on the selection of explanatory covariates is also explored.

  3. Turbulence modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bardina, Jorge E.

    1995-01-01

    The objective of this work is to develop, verify, and incorporate the baseline two-equation turbulence models which account for the effects of compressibility into the three-dimensional Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) code and to provide documented descriptions of the models and their numerical procedures so that they can be implemented into 3-D CFD codes for engineering applications.

  4. Budget Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Washington State Board for Community Coll. Education, Olympia.

    Computerized formula-driven budget models are used by the Washington community college system to define resource needs for legislative budget requests and to distribute legislative appropriations among 22 community college districts. This manual outlines the sources of information needed to operate the model and illustrates the principles on which…

  5. Dispersion Modeling.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Budiansky, Stephen

    1980-01-01

    This article discusses the need for more accurate and complete input data and field verification of the various models of air pollutant dispension. Consideration should be given to changing the form of air quality standards based on enhanced dispersion modeling techniques. (Author/RE)

  6. Modeling Sunspots

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oh, Phil Seok; Oh, Sung Jin

    2013-01-01

    Modeling in science has been studied by education researchers for decades and is now being applied broadly in school. It is among the scientific practices featured in the "Next Generation Science Standards" ("NGSS") (Achieve Inc. 2013). This article describes modeling activities in an extracurricular science club in a high…

  7. Phonological Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ballard, W.L.

    1968-01-01

    The article discusses models of synchronic and diachronic phonology and suggests changes in them. The basic generative model of phonology is outlined with the author's reinterpretations. The systematic phonemic level is questioned in terms of its unreality with respect to linguistic performance and its lack of validity with respect to historical…

  8. Zitterbewegung modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Hestenes, D. )

    1993-03-01

    Guidelines for constructing point particle models of the electron with [ital zitterbewegung] and other features of the Dirac theory are discussed. Such models may at least be useful approximations to the Dirac theory, but the more exciting possibility is that this approach may lead to a more fundamental reality. 6 refs.

  9. OSPREY Model

    SciTech Connect

    Veronica J. Rutledge

    2013-01-01

    The absence of industrial scale nuclear fuel reprocessing in the U.S. has precluded the necessary driver for developing the advanced simulation capability now prevalent in so many other countries. Thus, it is essential to model complex series of unit operations to simulate, understand, and predict inherent transient behavior and feedback loops. A capability of accurately simulating the dynamic behavior of advanced fuel cycle separation processes will provide substantial cost savings and many technical benefits. The specific fuel cycle separation process discussed in this report is the off-gas treatment system. The off-gas separation consists of a series of scrubbers and adsorption beds to capture constituents of interest. Dynamic models are being developed to simulate each unit operation involved so each unit operation can be used as a stand-alone model and in series with multiple others. Currently, an adsorption model has been developed within Multi-physics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) developed at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Off-gas Separation and REcoverY (OSPREY) models the adsorption of off-gas constituents for dispersed plug flow in a packed bed under non-isothermal and non-isobaric conditions. Inputs to the model include gas, sorbent, and column properties, equilibrium and kinetic data, and inlet conditions. The simulation outputs component concentrations along the column length as a function of time from which breakthrough data is obtained. The breakthrough data can be used to determine bed capacity, which in turn can be used to size columns. It also outputs temperature along the column length as a function of time and pressure drop along the column length. Experimental data and parameters were input into the adsorption model to develop models specific for krypton adsorption. The same can be done for iodine, xenon, and tritium. The model will be validated with experimental breakthrough curves. Customers will be given access to

  10. Phenomenological models.

    PubMed

    Braby, L A

    1991-01-01

    The biological effects of ionizing radiation exposure are the result of a complex sequence of physical, chemical, biochemical, and physiological interactions which are modified by characteristics of the radiation, the timing of its administration, the chemical and physical environment, and the nature of the biological system. However, it is generally agreed that the health effects in animals originate from changes in individual cells, or possibly small groups of cells, and that these cellular changes are initiated by ionizations and excitations produced by the passage of charged particles through the cells. One way to begin a search for an understanding of health effects of radiation is through the development of phenomenological models of the response. Many models have been presented and tested in the slowly evolving process of characterizing cellular response. Different phenomena (LET dependence, dose rate effect, oxygen effect etc.) and different end points (cell survival, aberration formation, transformation, etc.) have been observed, and no single model has been developed to cover all of them. Instead, a range of models covering different end points and phenomena have developed in parallel. Many of these models employ similar assumptions about some underlying processes while differing about the nature of others. An attempt is made to organize many of the models into groups with similar features and to compare the consequences of those features with the actual experimental observations. It is assumed that by showing that some assumptions are inconsistent with experimental observations, the job of devising and testing mechanistic models can be simplified. PMID:1811477

  11. Stereometric Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grimaldi, P.

    2012-07-01

    These mandatory guidelines are provided for preparation of papers accepted for publication in the series of Volumes of The The stereometric modelling means modelling achieved with : - the use of a pair of virtual cameras, with parallel axes and positioned at a mutual distance average of 1/10 of the distance camera-object (in practice the realization and use of a stereometric camera in the modeling program); - the shot visualization in two distinct windows - the stereoscopic viewing of the shot while modelling. Since the definition of "3D vision" is inaccurately referred to as the simple perspective of an object, it is required to add the word stereo so that "3D stereo vision " shall stand for "three-dimensional view" and ,therefore, measure the width, height and depth of the surveyed image. Thanks to the development of a stereo metric model , either real or virtual, through the "materialization", either real or virtual, of the optical-stereo metric model made visible with a stereoscope. It is feasible a continuous on line updating of the cultural heritage with the help of photogrammetry and stereometric modelling. The catalogue of the Architectonic Photogrammetry Laboratory of Politecnico di Bari is available on line at: http://rappresentazione.stereofot.it:591/StereoFot/FMPro?-db=StereoFot.fp5&-lay=Scheda&-format=cerca.htm&-view

  12. Model hydrographs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mitchell, W.D.

    1972-01-01

    Model hydrographs are composed of pairs of dimensionless ratios, arrayed in tabular form, which, when modified by the appropriate values of rainfall exceed and by the time and areal characteristics of the drainage basin, satisfactorily represent the flood hydrograph for the basin. Model bydrographs are developed from a dimensionless translation hydrograph, having a time base of T hours and appropriately modified for storm duration by routing through reservoir storage, S=kOx. Models fall into two distinct classes: (1) those for which the value of x is unity and which have all the characteristics of true unit hydrographs and (2) those for which the value of x is other than unity and to which the unit-hydrograph principles of proportionality and superposition do not apply. Twenty-six families of linear models and eight families of nonlinear models in tabular form from the principal subject of this report. Supplemental discussions describe the development of the models and illustrate their application. Other sections of the report, supplemental to the tables, describe methods of determining the hydrograph characteristics, T, k, and x, both from observed hydrograph and from the physical characteristics of the drainage basin. Five illustrative examples of use show that the models, when properly converted to incorporate actual rainfall excess and the time and areal characteristics of the drainage basins, do indeed satisfactorily represent the observed flood hydrographs for the basins.

  13. Programming models

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel, David J; Mc Pherson, Allen; Thorp, John R; Barrett, Richard; Clay, Robert; De Supinski, Bronis; Dube, Evi; Heroux, Mike; Janssen, Curtis; Langer, Steve; Laros, Jim

    2011-01-14

    A programming model is a set of software technologies that support the expression of algorithms and provide applications with an abstract representation of the capabilities of the underlying hardware architecture. The primary goals are productivity, portability and performance.

  14. Energy Models

    EPA Science Inventory

    Energy models characterize the energy system, its evolution, and its interactions with the broader economy. The energy system consists of primary resources, including both fossil fuels and renewables; power plants, refineries, and other technologies to process and convert these r...

  15. Constraining cloud lifetime effects of aerosols using A-Train satellite observations

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Minghuai; Ghan, Steven J.; Liu, Xiaohong; Ecuyer, Tristan L.; Zhang, Kai; Morrison, H.; Ovchinnikov, Mikhail; Easter, Richard C.; Marchand, Roger; Chand, Duli; Qian, Yun; Penner, Joyce E.

    2012-08-15

    Aerosol indirect effects have remained the largest uncertainty in estimates of the radiative forcing of past and future climate change. Observational constraints on cloud lifetime effects are particularly challenging since it is difficult to separate aerosol effects from meteorological influences. Here we use three global climate models, including a multi-scale aerosol-climate model PNNL-MMF, to show that the dependence of the probability of precipitation on aerosol loading, termed the precipitation frequency susceptibility (S{sub pop}), is a good measure of the liquid water path response to aerosol perturbation ({lambda}), as both Spop and {lambda} strongly depend on the magnitude of autoconversion, a model representation of precipitation formation via collisions among cloud droplets. This provides a method to use satellite observations to constrain cloud lifetime effects in global climate models. S{sub pop} in marine clouds estimated from CloudSat, MODIS and AMSR-E observations is substantially lower than that from global climate models and suggests a liquid water path increase of less than 5% from doubled cloud condensation nuclei concentrations. This implies a substantially smaller impact on shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCF) over ocean due to aerosol indirect effects than simulated by current global climate models (a reduction by one-third for one of the conventional aerosol-climate models). Further work is needed to quantify the uncertainties in satellite-derived estimates of S{sub pop} and to examine S{sub pop} in high-resolution models.

  16. Mechanistic models

    SciTech Connect

    Curtis, S.B.

    1990-09-01

    Several models and theories are reviewed that incorporate the idea of radiation-induced lesions (repairable and/or irreparable) that can be related to molecular lesions in the DNA molecule. Usually the DNA double-strand or chromatin break is suggested as the critical lesion. In the models, the shoulder on the low-LET survival curve is hypothesized as being due to one (or more) of the following three mechanisms: (1) ``interaction`` of lesions produced by statistically independent particle tracks; (2) nonlinear (i.e., linear-quadratic) increase in the yield of initial lesions, and (3) saturation of repair processes at high dose. Comparisons are made between the various approaches. Several significant advances in model development are discussed; in particular, a description of the matrix formulation of the Markov versions of the RMR and LPL models is given. The more advanced theories have incorporated statistical fluctuations in various aspects of the energy-loss and lesion-formation process. An important direction is the inclusion of physical and chemical processes into the formulations by incorporating relevant track structure theory (Monte Carlo track simulations) and chemical reactions of radiation-induced radicals. At the biological end, identification of repair genes and how they operate as well as a better understanding of how DNA misjoinings lead to lethal chromosome aberrations are needed for appropriate inclusion into the theories. More effort is necessary to model the complex end point of radiation-induced carcinogenesis.

  17. Mechanistic models

    SciTech Connect

    Curtis, S.B.

    1990-09-01

    Several models and theories are reviewed that incorporate the idea of radiation-induced lesions (repairable and/or irreparable) that can be related to molecular lesions in the DNA molecule. Usually the DNA double-strand or chromatin break is suggested as the critical lesion. In the models, the shoulder on the low-LET survival curve is hypothesized as being due to one (or more) of the following three mechanisms: (1) interaction'' of lesions produced by statistically independent particle tracks; (2) nonlinear (i.e., linear-quadratic) increase in the yield of initial lesions, and (3) saturation of repair processes at high dose. Comparisons are made between the various approaches. Several significant advances in model development are discussed; in particular, a description of the matrix formulation of the Markov versions of the RMR and LPL models is given. The more advanced theories have incorporated statistical fluctuations in various aspects of the energy-loss and lesion-formation process. An important direction is the inclusion of physical and chemical processes into the formulations by incorporating relevant track structure theory (Monte Carlo track simulations) and chemical reactions of radiation-induced radicals. At the biological end, identification of repair genes and how they operate as well as a better understanding of how DNA misjoinings lead to lethal chromosome aberrations are needed for appropriate inclusion into the theories. More effort is necessary to model the complex end point of radiation-induced carcinogenesis.

  18. Modeling reality

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Denning, Peter J.

    1990-01-01

    Although powerful computers have allowed complex physical and manmade hardware systems to be modeled successfully, we have encountered persistent problems with the reliability of computer models for systems involving human learning, human action, and human organizations. This is not a misfortune; unlike physical and manmade systems, human systems do not operate under a fixed set of laws. The rules governing the actions allowable in the system can be changed without warning at any moment, and can evolve over time. That the governing laws are inherently unpredictable raises serious questions about the reliability of models when applied to human situations. In these domains, computers are better used, not for prediction and planning, but for aiding humans. Examples are systems that help humans speculate about possible futures, offer advice about possible actions in a domain, systems that gather information from the networks, and systems that track and support work flows in organizations.

  19. Molecular Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holmes, Jon L.

    1999-06-01

    Molecular modeling has trickled down from the realm of pharmaceutical and research laboratories into the realm of undergraduate chemistry instruction. It has opened avenues for the visualization of chemical concepts that previously were difficult or impossible to convey. I am sure that many of you have developed exercises using the various molecular modeling tools. It is the desire of this Journal to become an avenue for you to share these exercises among your colleagues. It is to this end that Ron Starkey has agreed to edit such a column and to publish not only the description of such exercises, but also the software documents they use. The WWW is the obvious medium to distribute this combination and so accepted submissions will appear online as a feature of JCE Internet. Typical molecular modeling exercise: finding conformation energies. Molecular Modeling Exercises and Experiments is the latest feature column of JCE Internet, joining Conceptual Questions and Challenge Problems, Hal's Picks, and Mathcad in the Chemistry Curriculum. JCE Internet continues to seek submissions in these areas of interest and submissions of general interest. If you have developed materials and would like to submit them, please see our Guide to Submissions for more information. The Chemical Education Resource Shelf, Equipment Buyers Guide, and WWW Site Review would also like to hear about chemistry textbooks and software, equipment, and WWW sites, respectively. Please consult JCE Internet Features to learn more about these resources at JCE Online. Email Announcements Would you like to be informed by email when the latest issue of the Journal is available online? when a new JCE Software title is shipping? when a new JCE Internet article has been published or is available for Open Review? when your subscription is about to expire? A new feature of JCE Online makes this possible. Visit our Guestbook to learn how. When

  20. Supernova models

    SciTech Connect

    Woosley, S.E.; Weaver, T.A.

    1980-01-01

    Recent progress in understanding the observed properties of Type I supernovae as a consequence of the thermonuclear detonation of white dwarf stars and the ensuing decay of the /sup 56/Ni produced therein is reviewed. Within the context of this model for Type I explosions and the 1978 model for Type II explosions, the expected nucleosynthesis and gamma-line spectra from both kinds of supernovae are presented. Finally, a qualitatively new approach to the problem of massive star death and Type II supernovae based upon a combination of rotation and thermonuclear burning is discussed.

  1. Atmospheric Modeling

    EPA Science Inventory

    Although air quality models have been applied historically to address issues specific to ambient air quality standards (i.e., one criteria pollutant at a time) or welfare (e.g.. acid deposition or visibility impairment). they are inherently multipollutant based. Therefore. in pri...

  2. Ensemble Models

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ensemble forecasting has been used for operational numerical weather prediction in the United States and Europe since the early 1990s. An ensemble of weather or climate forecasts is used to characterize the two main sources of uncertainty in computer models of physical systems: ...

  3. Modeling Convection

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ebert, James R.; Elliott, Nancy A.; Hurteau, Laura; Schulz, Amanda

    2004-01-01

    Students must understand the fundamental process of convection before they can grasp a wide variety of Earth processes, many of which may seem abstract because of the scales on which they operate. Presentation of a very visual, concrete model prior to instruction on these topics may facilitate students' understanding of processes that are largely…

  4. Painting models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baart, F.; Donchyts, G.; van Dam, A.; Plieger, M.

    2015-12-01

    The emergence of interactive art has blurred the line between electronic, computer graphics and art. Here we apply this art form to numerical models. Here we show how the transformation of a numerical model into an interactive painting can both provide insights and solve real world problems. The cases that are used as an example include forensic reconstructions, dredging optimization, barrier design. The system can be fed using any source of time varying vector fields, such as hydrodynamic models. The cases used here, the Indian Ocean (HYCOM), the Wadden Sea (Delft3D Curvilinear), San Francisco Bay (3Di subgrid and Delft3D Flexible Mesh), show that the method used is suitable for different time and spatial scales. High resolution numerical models become interactive paintings by exchanging their velocity fields with a high resolution (>=1M cells) image based flow visualization that runs in a html5 compatible web browser. The image based flow visualization combines three images into a new image: the current image, a drawing, and a uv + mask field. The advection scheme that computes the resultant image is executed in the graphics card using WebGL, allowing for 1M grid cells at 60Hz performance on mediocre graphic cards. The software is provided as open source software. By using different sources for a drawing one can gain insight into several aspects of the velocity fields. These aspects include not only the commonly represented magnitude and direction, but also divergence, topology and turbulence .

  5. Entrepreneurship Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Finger Lakes Regional Education Center for Economic Development, Mount Morris, NY.

    This guide describes seven model programs that were developed by the Finger Lakes Regional Center for Economic Development (New York) to meet the training needs of female and minority entrepreneurs to help their businesses survive and grow and to assist disabled and dislocated workers and youth in beginning small businesses. The first three models…

  6. Modeling Lessons

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Casey, Katherine

    2011-01-01

    As teachers learn new pedagogical strategies, they crave explicit demonstrations that show them how the new strategies will work with their students in their classrooms. Successful instructional coaches, therefore, understand the importance of modeling lessons to help teachers develop a vision of effective instruction. The author, an experienced…

  7. Modeling Muscles

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goodwyn, Lauren; Salm, Sarah

    2007-01-01

    Teaching the anatomy of the muscle system to high school students can be challenging. Students often learn about muscle anatomy by memorizing information from textbooks or by observing plastic, inflexible models. Although these mediums help students learn about muscle placement, the mediums do not facilitate understanding regarding integration of…

  8. Criticality Model

    SciTech Connect

    A. Alsaed

    2004-09-14

    The ''Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report'' (YMP 2003) presents the methodology for evaluating potential criticality situations in the monitored geologic repository. As stated in the referenced Topical Report, the detailed methodology for performing the disposal criticality analyses will be documented in model reports. Many of the models developed in support of the Topical Report differ from the definition of models as given in the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management procedure AP-SIII.10Q, ''Models'', in that they are procedural, rather than mathematical. These model reports document the detailed methodology necessary to implement the approach presented in the Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report and provide calculations utilizing the methodology. Thus, the governing procedure for this type of report is AP-3.12Q, ''Design Calculations and Analyses''. The ''Criticality Model'' is of this latter type, providing a process evaluating the criticality potential of in-package and external configurations. The purpose of this analysis is to layout the process for calculating the criticality potential for various in-package and external configurations and to calculate lower-bound tolerance limit (LBTL) values and determine range of applicability (ROA) parameters. The LBTL calculations and the ROA determinations are performed using selected benchmark experiments that are applicable to various waste forms and various in-package and external configurations. The waste forms considered in this calculation are pressurized water reactor (PWR), boiling water reactor (BWR), Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF), Training Research Isotope General Atomic (TRIGA), Enrico Fermi, Shippingport pressurized water reactor, Shippingport light water breeder reactor (LWBR), N-Reactor, Melt and Dilute, and Fort Saint Vrain Reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF). The scope of this analysis is to document the criticality computational method. The criticality

  9. Modeling Molecules

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    The molecule modeling method known as Multibody Order (N) Dynamics, or MBO(N)D, was developed by Moldyn, Inc. at Goddard Space Flight Center through funding provided by the SBIR program. The software can model the dynamics of molecules through technology which stimulates low-frequency molecular motions and properties, such as movements among a molecule's constituent parts. With MBO(N)D, a molecule is substructured into a set of interconnected rigid and flexible bodies. These bodies replace the computation burden of mapping individual atoms. Moldyn's technology cuts computation time while increasing accuracy. The MBO(N)D technology is available as Insight II 97.0 from Molecular Simulations, Inc. Currently the technology is used to account for forces on spacecraft parts and to perform molecular analyses for pharmaceutical purposes. It permits the solution of molecular dynamics problems on a moderate workstation, as opposed to on a supercomputer.

  10. Dendrite Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1999-01-01

    Dr. Donald Gilles, the Discipline Scientist for Materials Science in NASA's Microgravity Materials Science and Applications Department, demonstrates to Carl Dohrman a model of dendrites, the branch-like structures found in many metals and alloys. Dohrman was recently selected by the American Society for Metals International as their 1999 ASM International Foundation National Merit Scholar. The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign freshman recently toured NASA's materials science facilities at the Marshall Space Flight Center.

  11. Model checking

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dill, David L.

    1995-01-01

    Automatic formal verification methods for finite-state systems, also known as model-checking, successfully reduce labor costs since they are mostly automatic. Model checkers explicitly or implicitly enumerate the reachable state space of a system, whose behavior is described implicitly, perhaps by a program or a collection of finite automata. Simple properties, such as mutual exclusion or absence of deadlock, can be checked by inspecting individual states. More complex properties, such as lack of starvation, require search for cycles in the state graph with particular properties. Specifications to be checked may consist of built-in properties, such as deadlock or 'unspecified receptions' of messages, another program or implicit description, to be compared with a simulation, bisimulation, or language inclusion relation, or an assertion in one of several temporal logics. Finite-state verification tools are beginning to have a significant impact in commercial designs. There are many success stories of verification tools finding bugs in protocols or hardware controllers. In some cases, these tools have been incorporated into design methodology. Research in finite-state verification has been advancing rapidly, and is showing no signs of slowing down. Recent results include probabilistic algorithms for verification, exploitation of symmetry and independent events, and the use symbolic representations for Boolean functions and systems of linear inequalities. One of the most exciting areas for further research is the combination of model-checking with theorem-proving methods.

  12. Modeling biomembranes.

    SciTech Connect

    Plimpton, Steven James; Heffernan, Julieanne; Sasaki, Darryl Yoshio; Frischknecht, Amalie Lucile; Stevens, Mark Jackson; Frink, Laura J. Douglas

    2005-11-01

    Understanding the properties and behavior of biomembranes is fundamental to many biological processes and technologies. Microdomains in biomembranes or ''lipid rafts'' are now known to be an integral part of cell signaling, vesicle formation, fusion processes, protein trafficking, and viral and toxin infection processes. Understanding how microdomains form, how they depend on membrane constituents, and how they act not only has biological implications, but also will impact Sandia's effort in development of membranes that structurally adapt to their environment in a controlled manner. To provide such understanding, we created physically-based models of biomembranes. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and classical density functional theory (DFT) calculations using these models were applied to phenomena such as microdomain formation, membrane fusion, pattern formation, and protein insertion. Because lipid dynamics and self-organization in membranes occur on length and time scales beyond atomistic MD, we used coarse-grained models of double tail lipid molecules that spontaneously self-assemble into bilayers. DFT provided equilibrium information on membrane structure. Experimental work was performed to further help elucidate the fundamental membrane organization principles.

  13. 10. MOVABLE BED SEDIMENTATION MODELS. DOGTOOTH BEND MODEL (MODEL SCALE: ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    10. MOVABLE BED SEDIMENTATION MODELS. DOGTOOTH BEND MODEL (MODEL SCALE: 1' = 400' HORIZONTAL, 1' = 100' VERTICAL), AND GREENVILLE BRIDGE MODEL (MODEL SCALE: 1' = 360' HORIZONTAL, 1' = 100' VERTICAL). - Waterways Experiment Station, Hydraulics Laboratory, Halls Ferry Road, 2 miles south of I-20, Vicksburg, Warren County, MS

  14. Students' Models of Curve Fitting: A Models and Modeling Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gupta, Shweta

    2010-01-01

    The Models and Modeling Perspectives (MMP) has evolved out of research that began 26 years ago. MMP researchers use Model Eliciting Activities (MEAs) to elicit students' mental models. In this study MMP was used as the conceptual framework to investigate the nature of students' models of curve fitting in a problem-solving environment consisting of…

  15. Biomimetic modelling.

    PubMed Central

    Vincent, Julian F V

    2003-01-01

    Biomimetics is seen as a path from biology to engineering. The only path from engineering to biology in current use is the application of engineering concepts and models to biological systems. However, there is another pathway: the verification of biological mechanisms by manufacture, leading to an iterative process between biology and engineering in which the new understanding that the engineering implementation of a biological system can bring is fed back into biology, allowing a more complete and certain understanding and the possibility of further revelations for application in engineering. This is a pathway as yet unformalized, and one that offers the possibility that engineers can also be scientists. PMID:14561351

  16. Modeling fatigue.

    PubMed Central

    Sumner, Walton; Xu, Jin Zhong

    2002-01-01

    The American Board of Family Practice is developing a patient simulation program to evaluate diagnostic and management skills. The simulator must give temporally and physiologically reasonable answers to symptom questions such as "Have you been tired?" A three-step process generates symptom histories. In the first step, the simulator determines points in time where it should calculate instantaneous symptom status. In the second step, a Bayesian network implementing a roughly physiologic model of the symptom generates a value on a severity scale at each sampling time. Positive, zero, and negative values represent increased, normal, and decreased status, as applicable. The simulator plots these values over time. In the third step, another Bayesian network inspects this plot and reports how the symptom changed over time. This mechanism handles major trends, multiple and concurrent symptom causes, and gradually effective treatments. Other temporal insights, such as observations about short-term symptom relief, require complimentary mechanisms. PMID:12463924

  17. Modeling uncertainty: quicksand for water temperature modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bartholow, John M.

    2003-01-01

    Uncertainty has been a hot topic relative to science generally, and modeling specifically. Modeling uncertainty comes in various forms: measured data, limited model domain, model parameter estimation, model structure, sensitivity to inputs, modelers themselves, and users of the results. This paper will address important components of uncertainty in modeling water temperatures, and discuss several areas that need attention as the modeling community grapples with how to incorporate uncertainty into modeling without getting stuck in the quicksand that prevents constructive contributions to policy making. The material, and in particular the reference, are meant to supplement the presentation given at this conference.

  18. Pre-Modeling Ensures Accurate Solid Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gow, George

    2010-01-01

    Successful solid modeling requires a well-organized design tree. The design tree is a list of all the object's features and the sequential order in which they are modeled. The solid-modeling process is faster and less prone to modeling errors when the design tree is a simple and geometrically logical definition of the modeled object. Few high…

  19. Skylab Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1967-01-01

    This photograph is of a model of the Skylab with the Command/Service Module being docked. In an early effort to extend the use of Apollo for further applications, NASA established the Apollo Applications Program (AAP) in August of 1965. The AAP was to include long duration Earth orbital missions during which astronauts would carry out scientific, technological, and engineering experiments in space by utilizing modified Saturn launch vehicles and the Apollo spacecraft. Established in 1970, the Skylab Program was the forerurner of the AAP. The goals of the Skylab were to enrich our scientific knowledge of the Earth, the Sun, the stars, and cosmic space; to study the effects of weightlessness on living organisms, including man; to study the effects of the processing and manufacturing of materials utilizing the absence of gravity; and to conduct Earth resource observations. The Skylab also conducted 19 selected experiments submitted by high school students. Skylab's 3 different 3-man crews spent up to 84 days in Earth orbit. The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) had responsibility for developing and integrating most of the major components of the Skylab: the Orbital Workshop (OWS), Airlock Module (AM), Multiple Docking Adapter (MDA), Apollo Telescope Mount (ATM), Payload Shroud (PS), and most of the experiments. MSFC was also responsible for providing the Saturn IB launch vehicles for three Apollo spacecraft and crews and a Saturn V launch vehicle for the Skylab.

  20. Gas-aerosol cycling of ammonia and nitric acid in The Netherlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roelofs, Geert-Jan; Derksen, Jeroen

    2010-05-01

    Atmospheric ammonia and nitric acid are present over NW Europe in large abundance. Observations made during the IMPACT measurement campaign (May 2008, Cabauw, The Netherlands) show a pronounced diurnal cycle of aerosol ammonium and nitrate on relatively dry days. Simultaneously, AERONET data show a distinct diurnal cycle in aerosol optical thickness (AOT). We used a global aerosol-climate model (ECHAM5-HAM) and a detailed aerosol-cloud column model to help analyse the observations from this period. The study shows that the diurnal cycle in AOT is partly associated with particle number concentration, with distinct peaks in the morning and evening. More important is relative humidity (RH). RH maximizes in the night and early morning, decreases during the morning and increases again in the evening. The particle wet radius, and therefore AOT, changes accordingly. In addition, the RH variability also influences chemistry associated with ammonia and nitric acid (formation of ammonium nitrate, dissolution in aerosol water), resulting in the observed diurnal cycle of aerosol ammonium and nitrate. The additional aerosol matter increases the hygroscopicity of the particles, and this leads to further swelling by water vapor condensation and a further increase of AOT. During the day, as RH decreases and the particles shrink, aerosol ammonium and nitrate are again partly expelled to the gas phase. This behaviour contributes significantly to the observed diurnal cycle in AOT, and it illustrates the complexity of using AOT as a proxy for aerosol concentrations in aerosol climate studies in the case of heavily polluted areas.

  1. CISNET lung models: Comparison of model assumptions and model structures

    PubMed Central

    McMahon, Pamela M.; Hazelton, William; Kimmel, Marek; Clarke, Lauren

    2012-01-01

    Sophisticated modeling techniques can be powerful tools to help us understand the effects of cancer control interventions on population trends in cancer incidence and mortality. Readers of journal articles are however rarely supplied with modeling details. Six modeling groups collaborated as part of the National Cancer Institute’s Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) to investigate the contribution of US tobacco control efforts towards reducing lung cancer deaths over the period 1975 to 2000. The models included in this monograph were developed independently and use distinct, complementary approaches towards modeling the natural history of lung cancer. The models used the same data for inputs and agreed on the design of the analysis and the outcome measures. This article highlights aspects of the models that are most relevant to similarities of or differences between the results. Structured comparisons can increase the transparency of these complex models. PMID:22882887

  2. Building Mental Models by Dissecting Physical Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Srivastava, Anveshna

    2016-01-01

    When students build physical models from prefabricated components to learn about model systems, there is an implicit trade-off between the physical degrees of freedom in building the model and the intensity of instructor supervision needed. Models that are too flexible, permitting multiple possible constructions require greater supervision to…

  3. I&C Modeling in SPAR Models

    SciTech Connect

    John A. Schroeder

    2012-06-01

    The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models for the U.S. commercial nuclear power plants currently have very limited instrumentation and control (I&C) modeling [1]. Most of the I&C components in the operating plant SPAR models are related to the reactor protection system. This was identified as a finding during the industry peer review of SPAR models. While the Emergency Safeguard Features (ESF) actuation and control system was incorporated into the Peach Bottom Unit 2 SPAR model in a recent effort [2], various approaches to expend resources for detailed I&C modeling in other SPAR models are investigated.

  4. Comparative Protein Structure Modeling Using Modeller

    PubMed Central

    Eswar, Narayanan; Marti-Renom, Marc A.; Madhusudhan, M.S.; Eramian, David; Shen, Min-yi; Pieper, Ursula

    2014-01-01

    Functional characterization of a protein sequence is one of the most frequent problems in biology. This task is usually facilitated by accurate three-dimensional (3-D) structure of the studied protein. In the absence of an experimentally determined structure, comparative or homology modeling can sometimes provide a useful 3-D model for a protein that is related to at least one known protein structure. Comparative modeling predicts the 3-D structure of a given protein sequence (target) based primarily on its alignment to one or more proteins of known structure (templates). The prediction process consists of fold assignment, target-template alignment, model building, and model evaluation. This unit describes how to calculate comparative models using the program MODELLER and discusses all four steps of comparative modeling, frequently observed errors, and some applications. Modeling lactate dehydrogenase from Trichomonas vaginalis (TvLDH) is described as an example. The download and installation of the MODELLER software is also described. PMID:18428767

  5. Forward model nonlinearity versus inverse model nonlinearity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mehl, S.

    2007-01-01

    The issue of concern is the impact of forward model nonlinearity on the nonlinearity of the inverse model. The question posed is, "Does increased nonlinearity in the head solution (forward model) always result in increased nonlinearity in the inverse solution (estimation of hydraulic conductivity)?" It is shown that the two nonlinearities are separate, and it is not universally true that increased forward model nonlinearity increases inverse model nonlinearity. ?? 2007 National Ground Water Association.

  6. Remote sensing of aerosol in the terrestrial atmosphere from space: new missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milinevsky, G.; Yatskiv, Ya.; Degtyaryov, O.; Syniavskyi, I.; Ivanov, Yu.; Bovchaliuk, A.; Mishchenko, M.; Danylevsky, V.; Sosonkin, M.; Bovchaliuk, V.

    2015-09-01

    The distribution and properties of atmospheric aerosols on a global scale are not well known in terms of determination of their effects on climate. This mostly is due to extreme variability of aerosol concentrations, properties, sources, and types. Aerosol climate impact is comparable to the effect of greenhouse gases, but its influence is more difficult to measure, especially with respect to aerosol microphysical properties and the evaluation of anthropogenic aerosol effect. There are many satellite missions studying aerosol distribution in the terrestrial atmosphere, such as MISR/Terra, OMI/Aura, AVHHR, MODIS/Terra and Aqua, CALIOP/CALIPSO. To improve the quality of data and climate models, and to reduce aerosol climate forcing uncertainties, several new missions are planned. The gap in orbital instruments for studying aerosol microphysics has arisen after the Glory mission failed during launch in 2011. In this review paper, we describe several planned aerosol space missions, including the Ukrainian project Aerosol-UA that obtains data using a multi-channel scanning polarimeter and wide-angle polarimetric camera. The project is designed for remote sensing of the aerosol microphysics and cloud properties on a global scale.

  7. Remote sensing of aerosol in the terrestrial atmosphere from space: "AEROSOL-UA" mission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yatskiv, Yaroslav; Milinevsky, Gennadi; Degtyarev, Alexander

    2016-07-01

    The distribution and properties of atmospheric aerosols on a global scale are not well known in terms of determination of their effects on climate. This mostly is due to extreme variability of aerosol concentrations, properties, sources, and types. Aerosol climate impact is comparable to the effect of greenhouse gases, but its influence is more difficult to measure, especially with respect to aerosol microphysical properties and the evaluation of anthropogenic aerosol effect. There are many satellite missions studying aerosol distribution in the terrestrial atmosphere, such as MISR/Terra, OMI/Aura, AVHHR, MODIS/Terra and Aqua, CALIOP/CALIPSO. To improve the quality of data and climate models, and to reduce aerosol climate forcing uncertainties, several new missions are planned. The gap in orbital instruments for studying aerosol microphysics has arisen after the Glory mission failed during launch in 2011. In this review paper, we describe several planned aerosol space missions, including the Ukrainian project AEROSOL-UA that will obtain the data using a multi-channel scanning polarimeter and wide-angle polarimetric camera. The mission is designed for remote sensing of the aerosol microphysics and cloud properties on a global scale.

  8. Remote Sensing of Aerosol in the Terrestrial Atmosphere from Space: New Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Milinevsky, G.; Yatskiv, Ya.; Degtyaryov, O.; Syniavskyi, I.; Ivanov, Yu.; Bovchaliuk, A.; Mishchenko, M.; Danylevsky, V.; Sosonkin, M.; Bovchaliuk, V.

    2015-01-01

    The distribution and properties of atmospheric aerosols on a global scale are not well known in terms of determination of their effects on climate. This mostly is due to extreme variability of aerosol concentrations, properties, sources, and types. Aerosol climate impact is comparable to the effect of greenhouse gases, but its influence is more difficult to measure, especially with respect to aerosol microphysical properties and the evaluation of anthropogenic aerosol effect. There are many satellite missions studying aerosol distribution in the terrestrial atmosphere, such as MISR/Terra, OMI/Aura, AVHHR, MODIS/Terra and Aqua, CALIOP/CALIPSO. To improve the quality of data and climate models, and to reduce aerosol climate forcing uncertainties, several new missions are planned. The gap in orbital instruments for studying aerosol microphysics has arisen after the Glory mission failed during launch in 2011. In this review paper, we describe several planned aerosol space missions, including the Ukrainian project Aerosol-UA that obtains data using a multi-channel scanning polarimeter and wide-angle polarimetric camera. The project is designed for remote sensing of the aerosol microphysics and cloud properties on a global scale.

  9. Modeling cholera outbreaks

    PubMed Central

    Longini, Ira M.; Morris, J. Glenn

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical modeling can be a valuable tool for studying infectious disease outbreak dynamics and simulating the effects of possible interventions. Here, we describe approaches to modeling cholera outbreaks and how models have been applied to explore intervention strategies, particularly in Haiti. Mathematical models can play an important role in formulating and evaluating complex cholera outbreak response options. Major challenges to cholera modeling are insufficient data for calibrating models and the need to tailor models for different outbreak scenarios. PMID:23412687

  10. Uncertainty Modeling Via Frequency Domain Model Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Waszak, Martin R.; Andrisani, Dominick, II

    1999-01-01

    Abstract The majority of literature on robust control assumes that a design model is available and that the uncertainty model bounds the actual variations about the nominal model. However, methods for generating accurate design models have not received as much attention in the literature. The influence of the level of accuracy of the uncertainty model on closed loop performance has received even less attention. The research reported herein is an initial step in applying and extending the concept of model validation to the problem of obtaining practical uncertainty models for robust control analysis and design applications. An extension of model validation called 'sequential validation' is presented and applied to a simple spring-mass-damper system to establish the feasibility of the approach and demonstrate the benefits of the new developments.

  11. Model selection for logistic regression models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duller, Christine

    2012-09-01

    Model selection for logistic regression models decides which of some given potential regressors have an effect and hence should be included in the final model. The second interesting question is whether a certain factor is heterogeneous among some subsets, i.e. whether the model should include a random intercept or not. In this paper these questions will be answered with classical as well as with Bayesian methods. The application show some results of recent research projects in medicine and business administration.

  12. Modeling transient rootzone salinity (SWS Model)

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The combined, water quality criteria for irrigation, water and ion processes in soils, and plant and soil response is sufficiently complex that adequate analysis requires computer models. Models for management are also needed but these models must consider that the input requirements must be reasona...

  13. China model: Energy modeling the modern dynasty

    SciTech Connect

    Shaw, Jason

    1996-05-01

    In this paper a node-based microeconomic analysis is used to model the Chinese energy system. This model is run across multiple periods employing Lagrangian Relaxation techniques to achieve general equilibrium. Later, carbon dioxide emissions are added and the model is run to answer the question, {open_quotes}How can greenhouse gas emissions be reduced{close_quotes}?

  14. "Bohr's Atomic Model."

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Willden, Jeff

    2001-01-01

    "Bohr's Atomic Model" is a small interactive multimedia program that introduces the viewer to a simplified model of the atom. This interactive simulation lets students build an atom using an atomic construction set. The underlying design methodology for "Bohr's Atomic Model" is model-centered instruction, which means the central model of the…

  15. Multilevel Model Prediction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frees, Edward W.; Kim, Jee-Seon

    2006-01-01

    Multilevel models are proven tools in social research for modeling complex, hierarchical systems. In multilevel modeling, statistical inference is based largely on quantification of random variables. This paper distinguishes among three types of random variables in multilevel modeling--model disturbances, random coefficients, and future response…

  16. Building mental models by dissecting physical models.

    PubMed

    Srivastava, Anveshna

    2016-01-01

    When students build physical models from prefabricated components to learn about model systems, there is an implicit trade-off between the physical degrees of freedom in building the model and the intensity of instructor supervision needed. Models that are too flexible, permitting multiple possible constructions require greater supervision to ensure focused learning; models that are too constrained require less supervision, but can be constructed mechanically, with little to no conceptual engagement. We propose "model-dissection" as an alternative to "model-building," whereby instructors could make efficient use of supervisory resources, while simultaneously promoting focused learning. We report empirical results from a study conducted with biology undergraduate students, where we demonstrate that asking them to "dissect" out specific conceptual structures from an already built 3D physical model leads to a significant improvement in performance than asking them to build the 3D model from simpler components. Using questionnaires to measure understanding both before and after model-based interventions for two cohorts of students, we find that both the "builders" and the "dissectors" improve in the post-test, but it is the latter group who show statistically significant improvement. These results, in addition to the intrinsic time-efficiency of "model dissection," suggest that it could be a valuable pedagogical tool. PMID:26712513

  17. Geologic Framework Model Analysis Model Report

    SciTech Connect

    R. Clayton

    2000-12-19

    The purpose of this report is to document the Geologic Framework Model (GFM), Version 3.1 (GFM3.1) with regard to data input, modeling methods, assumptions, uncertainties, limitations, and validation of the model results, qualification status of the model, and the differences between Version 3.1 and previous versions. The GFM represents a three-dimensional interpretation of the stratigraphy and structural features of the location of the potential Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository. The GFM encompasses an area of 65 square miles (170 square kilometers) and a volume of 185 cubic miles (771 cubic kilometers). The boundaries of the GFM were chosen to encompass the most widely distributed set of exploratory boreholes (the Water Table or WT series) and to provide a geologic framework over the area of interest for hydrologic flow and radionuclide transport modeling through the unsaturated zone (UZ). The depth of the model is constrained by the inferred depth of the Tertiary-Paleozoic unconformity. The GFM was constructed from geologic map and borehole data. Additional information from measured stratigraphy sections, gravity profiles, and seismic profiles was also considered. This interim change notice (ICN) was prepared in accordance with the Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model Process Model Report Revision 01 (CRWMS M&O 2000). The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. The GFM is one component of the Integrated Site Model (ISM) (Figure l), which has been developed to provide a consistent volumetric portrayal of the rock layers, rock properties, and mineralogy of the Yucca Mountain site. The ISM consists of three components: (1) Geologic Framework Model (GFM); (2) Rock Properties Model (RPM); and (3) Mineralogic Model (MM). The ISM merges the detailed project stratigraphy into model stratigraphic units that are most useful for the primary downstream models and the

  18. Models of Magnetism.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Borges, A. Tarciso; Gilbert, John K.

    1998-01-01

    Investigates the mental models that people construct about magnetic phenomena. Involves students, physics teachers, engineers, and practitioners. Proposes five models following a progression from simple description to a field model. Contains 28 references. (DDR)

  19. Educating with Aircraft Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Steele, Hobie

    1976-01-01

    Described is utilization of aircraft models, model aircraft clubs, and model aircraft magazines to promote student interest in aerospace education. The addresses for clubs and magazines are included. (SL)

  20. Forest succession models

    SciTech Connect

    Shugart, H.H. Jr.; West, D.C.

    1980-05-01

    Studies in succession attempt to determine the changes in species composition and other ecosystem attributes expected to occur over periods of time. Mathematical models developed in forestry and ecology to study ecological succession are reviewed. Tree models, gap models and forest models are discussed. Model validation or testing procedures are described. Model applications can involve evaluating large-scale and long-term changes in the ambient levels of pollutants and assessing the effects of climate change on the environment. (RJC)

  1. Orbital Debris Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liou, J. C.

    2012-01-01

    Presentation outlne: (1) The NASA Orbital Debris (OD) Engineering Model -- A mathematical model capable of predicting OD impact risks for the ISS and other critical space assets (2) The NASA OD Evolutionary Model -- A physical model capable of predicting future debris environment based on user-specified scenarios (3) The NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model -- A model describing the outcome of a satellite breakup (explosion or collision)

  2. Continuous system modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cellier, Francois E.

    1991-01-01

    A comprehensive and systematic introduction is presented for the concepts associated with 'modeling', involving the transition from a physical system down to an abstract description of that system in the form of a set of differential and/or difference equations, and basing its treatment of modeling on the mathematics of dynamical systems. Attention is given to the principles of passive electrical circuit modeling, planar mechanical systems modeling, hierarchical modular modeling of continuous systems, and bond-graph modeling. Also discussed are modeling in equilibrium thermodynamics, population dynamics, and system dynamics, inductive reasoning, artificial neural networks, and automated model synthesis.

  3. Regularized Structural Equation Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Jacobucci, Ross; Grimm, Kevin J.; McArdle, John J.

    2016-01-01

    A new method is proposed that extends the use of regularization in both lasso and ridge regression to structural equation models. The method is termed regularized structural equation modeling (RegSEM). RegSEM penalizes specific parameters in structural equation models, with the goal of creating easier to understand and simpler models. Although regularization has gained wide adoption in regression, very little has transferred to models with latent variables. By adding penalties to specific parameters in a structural equation model, researchers have a high level of flexibility in reducing model complexity, overcoming poor fitting models, and the creation of models that are more likely to generalize to new samples. The proposed method was evaluated through a simulation study, two illustrative examples involving a measurement model, and one empirical example involving the structural part of the model to demonstrate RegSEM’s utility. PMID:27398019

  4. ROCK PROPERTIES MODEL ANALYSIS MODEL REPORT

    SciTech Connect

    Clinton Lum

    2002-02-04

    The purpose of this Analysis and Model Report (AMR) is to document Rock Properties Model (RPM) 3.1 with regard to input data, model methods, assumptions, uncertainties and limitations of model results, and qualification status of the model. The report also documents the differences between the current and previous versions and validation of the model. The rock properties models are intended principally for use as input to numerical physical-process modeling, such as of ground-water flow and/or radionuclide transport. The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. This work was conducted in accordance with the following planning documents: WA-0344, ''3-D Rock Properties Modeling for FY 1998'' (SNL 1997, WA-0358), ''3-D Rock Properties Modeling for FY 1999'' (SNL 1999), and the technical development plan, Rock Properties Model Version 3.1, (CRWMS M&O 1999c). The Interim Change Notice (ICNs), ICN 02 and ICN 03, of this AMR were prepared as part of activities being conducted under the Technical Work Plan, TWP-NBS-GS-000003, ''Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model, Process Model Report, Revision 01'' (CRWMS M&O 2000b). The purpose of ICN 03 is to record changes in data input status due to data qualification and verification activities. These work plans describe the scope, objectives, tasks, methodology, and implementing procedures for model construction. The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. The work scope for this activity consists of the following: (1) Conversion of the input data (laboratory measured porosity data, x-ray diffraction mineralogy, petrophysical calculations of bound water, and petrophysical calculations of porosity) for each borehole into stratigraphic coordinates; (2) Re-sampling and merging of data sets; (3) Development of geostatistical simulations of porosity; (4

  5. Better models are more effectively connected models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nunes, João Pedro; Bielders, Charles; Darboux, Frederic; Fiener, Peter; Finger, David; Turnbull-Lloyd, Laura; Wainwright, John

    2016-04-01

    The concept of hydrologic and geomorphologic connectivity describes the processes and pathways which link sources (e.g. rainfall, snow and ice melt, springs, eroded areas and barren lands) to accumulation areas (e.g. foot slopes, streams, aquifers, reservoirs), and the spatial variations thereof. There are many examples of hydrological and sediment connectivity on a watershed scale; in consequence, a process-based understanding of connectivity is crucial to help managers understand their systems and adopt adequate measures for flood prevention, pollution mitigation and soil protection, among others. Modelling is often used as a tool to understand and predict fluxes within a catchment by complementing observations with model results. Catchment models should therefore be able to reproduce the linkages, and thus the connectivity of water and sediment fluxes within the systems under simulation. In modelling, a high level of spatial and temporal detail is desirable to ensure taking into account a maximum number of components, which then enables connectivity to emerge from the simulated structures and functions. However, computational constraints and, in many cases, lack of data prevent the representation of all relevant processes and spatial/temporal variability in most models. In most cases, therefore, the level of detail selected for modelling is too coarse to represent the system in a way in which connectivity can emerge; a problem which can be circumvented by representing fine-scale structures and processes within coarser scale models using a variety of approaches. This poster focuses on the results of ongoing discussions on modelling connectivity held during several workshops within COST Action Connecteur. It assesses the current state of the art of incorporating the concept of connectivity in hydrological and sediment models, as well as the attitudes of modellers towards this issue. The discussion will focus on the different approaches through which connectivity

  6. PREDICTIVE MODELS. Enhanced Oil Recovery Model

    SciTech Connect

    Ray, R.M.

    1992-02-26

    PREDICTIVE MODELS is a collection of five models - CFPM, CO2PM, ICPM, PFPM, and SFPM - used in the 1982-1984 National Petroleum Council study of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) potential. Each pertains to a specific EOR process designed to squeeze additional oil from aging or spent oil fields. The processes are: 1 chemical flooding; 2 carbon dioxide miscible flooding; 3 in-situ combustion; 4 polymer flooding; and 5 steamflood. CFPM, the Chemical Flood Predictive Model, models micellar (surfactant)-polymer floods in reservoirs, which have been previously waterflooded to residual oil saturation. Thus, only true tertiary floods are considered. An option allows a rough estimate of oil recovery by caustic or caustic-polymer processes. CO2PM, the Carbon Dioxide miscible flooding Predictive Model, is applicable to both secondary (mobile oil) and tertiary (residual oil) floods, and to either continuous CO2 injection or water-alternating gas processes. ICPM, the In-situ Combustion Predictive Model, computes the recovery and profitability of an in-situ combustion project from generalized performance predictive algorithms. PFPM, the Polymer Flood Predictive Model, is switch-selectable for either polymer or waterflooding, and an option allows the calculation of the incremental oil recovery and economics of polymer relative to waterflooding. SFPM, the Steamflood Predictive Model, is applicable to the steam drive process, but not to cyclic steam injection (steam soak) processes. The IBM PC/AT version includes a plotting capability to produces a graphic picture of the predictive model results.

  7. Biosphere Model Report

    SciTech Connect

    D. W. Wu

    2003-07-16

    The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), the TSPA-LA. The ERMYN model provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs), the reference biosphere, the human receptor, and assumptions (Section 6.2 and Section 6.3); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN model compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN model by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); and (8) Validating the ERMYN model by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7).

  8. Biosphere Model Report

    SciTech Connect

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-10-27

    The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), the TSPA-LA. The ERMYN model provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs), the reference biosphere, the human receptor, and assumptions (Section 6.2 and Section 6.3); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN model compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN model by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); and (8) Validating the ERMYN model by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7).

  9. AIDS Epidemiological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahmani, Fouad Lazhar

    2010-11-01

    The aim of this paper is to present mathematical modelling of the spread of infection in the context of the transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS). These models are based in part on the models suggested in the field of th AIDS mathematical modelling as reported by ISHAM [6].

  10. On Multiobjective Evolution Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmed, E.; Elettreby, M. F.

    Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) phenomena could have a significant effect on the dynamics of ecosystems. The Bak-Sneppen (BS) model is a simple and robust model of biological evolution that exhibits punctuated equilibrium behavior. Here, we will introduce random version of BS model. We also generalize the single objective BS model to a multiobjective one.

  11. Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  12. Multimodeling and Model Abstraction

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The multiplicity of models of the same process or phenomenon is the commonplace in environmental modeling. Last 10 years brought marked interest to making use of the variety of conceptual approaches instead of attempting to find the best model or using a single preferred model. Two systematic approa...

  13. Qualitative Student Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clancey, William J.

    The concept of a qualitative model is used as the focus of this review of qualitative student models in order to compare alternative computational models and to contrast domain requirements. The report is divided into eight sections: (1) Origins and Goals (adaptive instruction, qualitative models of processes, components of an artificial…

  14. The Instrumental Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yeates, Devin Rodney

    2011-01-01

    The goal of this dissertation is to enable better predictive models by engaging raw experimental data through the Instrumental Model. The Instrumental Model captures the protocols and procedures of experimental data analysis. The approach is formalized by encoding the Instrumental Model in an XML record. Decoupling the raw experimental data from…

  15. Generative Models of Disfluency

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, Timothy A.

    2010-01-01

    This thesis describes a generative model for representing disfluent phenomena in human speech. This model makes use of observed syntactic structure present in disfluent speech, and uses a right-corner transform on syntax trees to model this structure in a very natural way. Specifically, the phenomenon of speech repair is modeled by explicitly…

  16. Efficient polarimetric BRDF model.

    PubMed

    Renhorn, Ingmar G E; Hallberg, Tomas; Boreman, Glenn D

    2015-11-30

    The purpose of the present manuscript is to present a polarimetric bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) model suitable for hyperspectral and polarimetric signature modelling. The model is based on a further development of a previously published four-parameter model that has been generalized in order to account for different types of surface structures (generalized Gaussian distribution). A generalization of the Lambertian diffuse model is presented. The pBRDF-functions are normalized using numerical integration. Using directional-hemispherical reflectance (DHR) measurements, three of the four basic parameters can be determined for any wavelength. This simplifies considerably the development of multispectral polarimetric BRDF applications. The scattering parameter has to be determined from at least one BRDF measurement. The model deals with linear polarized radiation; and in similarity with e.g. the facet model depolarization is not included. The model is very general and can inherently model extreme surfaces such as mirrors and Lambertian surfaces. The complex mixture of sources is described by the sum of two basic models, a generalized Gaussian/Fresnel model and a generalized Lambertian model. Although the physics inspired model has some ad hoc features, the predictive power of the model is impressive over a wide range of angles and scattering magnitudes. The model has been applied successfully to painted surfaces, both dull and glossy and also on metallic bead blasted surfaces. The simple and efficient model should be attractive for polarimetric simulations and polarimetric remote sensing. PMID:26698753

  17. Calibrated Properties Model

    SciTech Connect

    C.F. Ahlers, H.H. Liu

    2001-12-18

    The purpose of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to document the Calibrated Properties Model that provides calibrated parameter sets for unsaturated zone (UZ) flow and transport process models for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP). This work was performed in accordance with the AMR Development Plan for U0035 Calibrated Properties Model REV00 (CRWMS M&O 1999c). These calibrated property sets include matrix and fracture parameters for the UZ Flow and Transport Model (UZ Model), drift seepage models, drift-scale and mountain-scale coupled-processes models, and Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models as well as Performance Assessment (PA) and other participating national laboratories and government agencies. These process models provide the necessary framework to test conceptual hypotheses of flow and transport at different scales and predict flow and transport behavior under a variety of climatic and thermal-loading conditions.

  18. Calibrated Properties Model

    SciTech Connect

    C. Ahlers; H. Liu

    2000-03-12

    The purpose of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to document the Calibrated Properties Model that provides calibrated parameter sets for unsaturated zone (UZ) flow and transport process models for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP). This work was performed in accordance with the ''AMR Development Plan for U0035 Calibrated Properties Model REV00. These calibrated property sets include matrix and fracture parameters for the UZ Flow and Transport Model (UZ Model), drift seepage models, drift-scale and mountain-scale coupled-processes models, and Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models as well as Performance Assessment (PA) and other participating national laboratories and government agencies. These process models provide the necessary framework to test conceptual hypotheses of flow and transport at different scales and predict flow and transport behavior under a variety of climatic and thermal-loading conditions.

  19. Introduction to Adjoint Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Errico, Ronald M.

    2015-01-01

    In this lecture, some fundamentals of adjoint models will be described. This includes a basic derivation of tangent linear and corresponding adjoint models from a parent nonlinear model, the interpretation of adjoint-derived sensitivity fields, a description of methods of automatic differentiation, and the use of adjoint models to solve various optimization problems, including singular vectors. Concluding remarks will attempt to correct common misconceptions about adjoint models and their utilization.

  20. Stable models of superacceleration

    SciTech Connect

    Kaplinghat, Manoj; Rajaraman, Arvind

    2007-05-15

    We discuss an instability in a large class of models where dark energy is coupled to matter. In these models the mass of the scalar field is much larger than the expansion rate of the Universe. We find models in which this instability is absent, and show that these models generically predict an apparent equation of state for dark energy smaller than -1, i.e., superacceleration. These models have no acausal behavior or ghosts.

  1. Final Report for Cloud-Aerosol Physics in Super-Parameterized Atmospheric Regional Climate Simulations (CAP-SPARCS)(DE-SC0002003) for 8/15/2009 through 8/14/2012

    SciTech Connect

    Russell, Lynn M; Somerville, Richard C.J.

    2012-11-05

    Improving the representation of local and non-local aerosol interactions in state-of-the-science regional climate models is a priority for the coming decade (Zhang, 2008). With this aim in mind, we have combined two new technologies that have a useful synergy: (1) an aerosol-enabled regional climate model (Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry WRF-Chem), whose primary weakness is a lack of high quality boundary conditions and (2) an aerosol-enabled multiscale modeling framework (PNNL Multiscale Aerosol Climate Model (MACM)), which is global but captures aerosol-convection-cloud feedbacks, and thus an ideal source of boundary conditions. Combining these two approaches has resulted in an aerosol-enabled modeling framework that not only resolves high resolution details in a particular region, but crucially does so within a global context that is similarly faithful to multi-scale aerosol-climate interactions. We have applied and improved the representation of aerosol interactions by evaluating model performance over multiple domains, with (1) an extensive evaluation of mid-continent precipitation representation by multiscale modeling, (2) two focused comparisons to transport of aerosol plumes to the eastern United States for comparison with observations made as part of the International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT), with the first being idealized and the second being linked to an extensive wildfire plume, and (3) the extension of these ideas to the development of a new approach to evaluating aerosol indirect effects with limited-duration model runs by nudging to observations. This research supported the work of one postdoc (Zhan Zhao) for two years and contributed to the training and research of two graduate students. Four peer-reviewed publications have resulted from this work, and ground work for a follow-on project was completed.

  2. ADAPT model: Model use, calibration and validation

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    This paper presents an overview of the Agricultural Drainage and Pesticide Transport (ADAPT) model and a case study to illustrate the calibration and validation steps for predicting subsurface tile drainage and nitrate-N losses from an agricultural system. The ADAPT model is a daily time step field ...

  3. WASP TRANSPORT MODELING AND WASP ECOLOGICAL MODELING

    EPA Science Inventory

    A combination of lectures, demonstrations, and hands-on excercises will be used to introduce pollutant transport modeling with the U.S. EPA's general water quality model, WASP (Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program). WASP features include a user-friendly Windows-based interfa...

  4. Geochemistry Model Validation Report: External Accumulation Model

    SciTech Connect

    K. Zarrabi

    2001-09-27

    The purpose of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) is to validate the External Accumulation Model that predicts accumulation of fissile materials in fractures and lithophysae in the rock beneath a degrading waste package (WP) in the potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. (Lithophysae are voids in the rock having concentric shells of finely crystalline alkali feldspar, quartz, and other materials that were formed due to entrapped gas that later escaped, DOE 1998, p. A-25.) The intended use of this model is to estimate the quantities of external accumulation of fissile material for use in external criticality risk assessments for different types of degrading WPs: U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) codisposed with High Level Waste (HLW) glass, commercial SNF, and Immobilized Plutonium Ceramic (Pu-ceramic) codisposed with HLW glass. The scope of the model validation is to (1) describe the model and the parameters used to develop the model, (2) provide rationale for selection of the parameters by comparisons with measured values, and (3) demonstrate that the parameters chosen are the most conservative selection for external criticality risk calculations. To demonstrate the applicability of the model, a Pu-ceramic WP is used as an example. The model begins with a source term from separately documented EQ6 calculations; where the source term is defined as the composition versus time of the water flowing out of a breached waste package (WP). Next, PHREEQC, is used to simulate the transport and interaction of the source term with the resident water and fractured tuff below the repository. In these simulations the primary mechanism for accumulation is mixing of the high pH, actinide-laden source term with resident water; thus lowering the pH values sufficiently for fissile minerals to become insoluble and precipitate. In the final section of the model, the outputs from PHREEQC, are processed to produce mass of accumulation

  5. Trapped Radiation Model Uncertainties: Model-Data and Model-Model Comparisons

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Armstrong, T. W.; Colborn, B. L.

    2000-01-01

    The standard AP8 and AE8 models for predicting trapped proton and electron environments have been compared with several sets of flight data to evaluate model uncertainties. Model comparisons are made with flux and dose measurements made on various U.S. low-Earth orbit satellites (APEX, CRRES, DMSP, LDEF, NOAA) and Space Shuttle flights, on Russian satellites (Photon-8, Cosmos-1887, Cosmos-2044), and on the Russian Mir Space Station. This report gives the details of the model-data comparisons-summary results in terms of empirical model uncertainty factors that can be applied for spacecraft design applications are given in a combination report. The results of model-model comparisons are also presented from standard AP8 and AE8 model predictions compared with the European Space Agency versions of AP8 and AE8 and with Russian-trapped radiation models.

  6. Model Validation Status Review

    SciTech Connect

    E.L. Hardin

    2001-11-28

    The primary objective for the Model Validation Status Review was to perform a one-time evaluation of model validation associated with the analysis/model reports (AMRs) containing model input to total-system performance assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain site recommendation (SR). This review was performed in response to Corrective Action Request BSC-01-C-01 (Clark 2001, Krisha 2001) pursuant to Quality Assurance review findings of an adverse trend in model validation deficiency. The review findings in this report provide the following information which defines the extent of model validation deficiency and the corrective action needed: (1) AMRs that contain or support models are identified, and conversely, for each model the supporting documentation is identified. (2) The use for each model is determined based on whether the output is used directly for TSPA-SR, or for screening (exclusion) of features, events, and processes (FEPs), and the nature of the model output. (3) Two approaches are used to evaluate the extent to which the validation for each model is compliant with AP-3.10Q (Analyses and Models). The approaches differ in regard to whether model validation is achieved within individual AMRs as originally intended, or whether model validation could be readily achieved by incorporating information from other sources. (4) Recommendations are presented for changes to the AMRs, and additional model development activities or data collection, that will remedy model validation review findings, in support of licensing activities. The Model Validation Status Review emphasized those AMRs that support TSPA-SR (CRWMS M&O 2000bl and 2000bm). A series of workshops and teleconferences was held to discuss and integrate the review findings. The review encompassed 125 AMRs (Table 1) plus certain other supporting documents and data needed to assess model validity. The AMRs were grouped in 21 model areas representing the modeling of processes affecting the natural and

  7. Trapped Radiation Model Uncertainties: Model-Data and Model-Model Comparisons

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Armstrong, T. W.; Colborn, B. L.

    2000-01-01

    The standard AP8 and AE8 models for predicting trapped proton and electron environments have been compared with several sets of flight data to evaluate model uncertainties. Model comparisons are made with flux and dose measurements made on various U.S. low-Earth orbit satellites (APEX, CRRES, DMSP. LDEF, NOAA) and Space Shuttle flights, on Russian satellites (Photon-8, Cosmos-1887, Cosmos-2044), and on the Russian Mir space station. This report gives the details of the model-data comparisons -- summary results in terms of empirical model uncertainty factors that can be applied for spacecraft design applications are given in a companion report. The results of model-model comparisons are also presented from standard AP8 and AE8 model predictions compared with the European Space Agency versions of AP8 and AE8 and with Russian trapped radiation models.

  8. Modeling extragalactic bowshocks. I. The model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferruit, P.; Binette, L.; Sutherland, R. S.; Pecontal, E.

    1997-06-01

    To probe the effects of the nuclear activity on the host galaxy, it is essential to disentangle the relative contribution of shock excitation from that of photoionization. One milestone towards this goal is the ability to model the bowshock structures created by the interaction of radio ejecta with their surrounding medium. We have built a bowshock model based on TDA's one (Taylor, Dyson & Axon, 1992MNRAS.255..351T) which was itself derived from an earlier work on Herbig-Haro objects. Since TDA's original model supplied the astronomers with only [OIII]λ5007 fluxes and profiles for various models of bowshocks, we undertook to include magnetic fields and to incorporate all of the atomic data tables of the code Mappings Ic for the computation of ionization states, cooling rates and line emissivities of the gas. This new model allows us to map line ratios and profiles of extragalactic bowshocks for all major lines of astrophysical interest. In this first paper, we present our model, analyse the gas behavior along the bowshock and give some examples of model results.

  9. Modeling Hydrothermal Mineralization: Fractal or Multifrcatal Models?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Q.

    2004-05-01

    Hydrothermal mineralization occurs when the natural geo-processes involve the interaction of ore material-carrying hydrothermal fluids with rocks in the earth's crust in a specific geological environment. Mineralization can cause element concentration enrichment or depletion in the country rocks. Local enrichment may form ore body that can be mined for profit at the current economic and technological conditions. To understand the spatial distribution of element concentration enrichment or depletion caused by mineralization in a mineral district is essential for mineral exploration and mineral prediction. Grade-tonnage model and mineral deposits size distribution model are common models used for characterizing mineral deposits. This paper proposes a non-linear mineralization model on the basis of a modified classical igneous differentiation mineralization model to describe the generation of multifractal distribution of element concentration in the country rocks as well as grade-tonnage fractal/multifractal distribution of ore deposits that have been often observed in hydrothermal mineralization. This work may also lead to a singularity model to explain the common properties of mineralization and mineralization-associated geochemical anomaly diversity and the generalized self-similarity of the anomalies. The model has been applied to a case study of mineral deposits prediction and mineral resource assessment in the Abitibi district, northern Ontario, Canada.

  10. Modeling volatility using state space models.

    PubMed

    Timmer, J; Weigend, A S

    1997-08-01

    In time series problems, noise can be divided into two categories: dynamic noise which drives the process, and observational noise which is added in the measurement process, but does not influence future values of the system. In this framework, we show that empirical volatilities (the squared relative returns of prices) exhibit a significant amount of observational noise. To model and predict their time evolution adequately, we estimate state space models that explicitly include observational noise. We obtain relaxation times for shocks in the logarithm of volatility ranging from three weeks (for foreign exchange) to three to five months (for stock indices). In most cases, a two-dimensional hidden state is required to yield residuals that are consistent with white noise. We compare these results with ordinary autoregressive models (without a hidden state) and find that autoregressive models underestimate the relaxation times by about two orders of magnitude since they do not distinguish between observational and dynamic noise. This new interpretation of the dynamics of volatility in terms of relaxators in a state space model carries over to stochastic volatility models and to GARCH models, and is useful for several problems in finance, including risk management and the pricing of derivative securities. Data sets used: Olsen & Associates high frequency DEM/USD foreign exchange rates (8 years). Nikkei 225 index (40 years). Dow Jones Industrial Average (25 years). PMID:9730016

  11. Energy-consumption modelling

    SciTech Connect

    Reiter, E.R.

    1980-01-01

    A highly sophisticated and accurate approach is described to compute on an hourly or daily basis the energy consumption for space heating by individual buildings, urban sectors, and whole cities. The need for models and specifically weather-sensitive models, composite models, and space-heating models are discussed. Development of the Colorado State University Model, based on heat-transfer equations and on a heuristic, adaptive, self-organizing computation learning approach, is described. Results of modeling energy consumption by the city of Minneapolis and Cheyenne are given. Some data on energy consumption in individual buildings are included.

  12. Holographic twin Higgs model.

    PubMed

    Geller, Michael; Telem, Ofri

    2015-05-15

    We present the first realization of a "twin Higgs" model as a holographic composite Higgs model. Uniquely among composite Higgs models, the Higgs potential is protected by a new standard model (SM) singlet elementary "mirror" sector at the sigma model scale f and not by the composite states at m_{KK}, naturally allowing for m_{KK} beyond the LHC reach. As a result, naturalness in our model cannot be constrained by the LHC, but may be probed by precision Higgs measurements at future lepton colliders, and by direct searches for Kaluza-Klein excitations at a 100 TeV collider. PMID:26024160

  13. Stochastic modeling of rainfall

    SciTech Connect

    Guttorp, P.

    1996-12-31

    We review several approaches in the literature for stochastic modeling of rainfall, and discuss some of their advantages and disadvantages. While stochastic precipitation models have been around at least since the 1850`s, the last two decades have seen an increased development of models based (more or less) on the physical processes involved in precipitation. There are interesting questions of scale and measurement that pertain to these modeling efforts. Recent modeling efforts aim at including meteorological variables, and may be useful for regional down-scaling of general circulation models.

  14. Reliability model generator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McMann, Catherine M. (Inventor); Cohen, Gerald C. (Inventor)

    1991-01-01

    An improved method and system for automatically generating reliability models for use with a reliability evaluation tool is described. The reliability model generator of the present invention includes means for storing a plurality of low level reliability models which represent the reliability characteristics for low level system components. In addition, the present invention includes means for defining the interconnection of the low level reliability models via a system architecture description. In accordance with the principles of the present invention, a reliability model for the entire system is automatically generated by aggregating the low level reliability models based on the system architecture description.

  15. Gear mesh compliance modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Savage, M.; Caldwell, R. J.; Wisor, G. D.; Lewicki, D. G.

    1986-01-01

    A computer model has been constructed to simulate the compliance and load sharing in a spur gear mesh. The model adds the effect of rim deflections to previously developed state-of-the-art gear tooth deflection models. The effects of deflections on mesh compliance and load sharing are examined. The model can treat gear meshes composed to two external gears or an external gear driving an internal gear. The model includes deflection contributions from the bending and shear in the teeth, the Hertzian contact deformations, and primary and secondary rotations of the gear rims. The model shows that rimmed gears increase mesh compliance and, in some cases, improve load sharing.

  16. Gear mesh compliance modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Savage, M.; Caldwell, R. J.; Wisor, G. D.; Lewicki, D. G.

    1987-01-01

    A computer model has been constructed to simulate the compliance and load sharing in a spur gear mesh. The model adds the effect of rim deflections to previously developed state-of-the-art gear tooth deflection models. The effects of deflections on mesh compliance and load sharing are examined. The model can treat gear meshes composed of two external gears or an external gear driving an internal gear. The model includes deflection contributions from the bending and shear in the teeth, the Hertzian contact deformations, and primary and secondary rotations of the gear rims. The model shows that rimmed gears increase mesh compliance and, in some cases, improve load sharing.

  17. Reduced Vector Preisach Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Patel, Umesh D.; Torre, Edward Della; Day, John H. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    A new vector Preisach model, called the Reduced Vector Preisach model (RVPM), was developed for fast computations. This model, derived from the Simplified Vector Preisach model (SVPM), has individual components that like the SVPM are calculated independently using coupled selection rules for the state vector computation. However, the RVPM does not require the rotational correction. Therefore, it provides a practical alternative for computing the magnetic susceptibility using a differential approach. A vector version, using the framework of the DOK model, is implemented. Simulation results for the reduced vector Preisach model are also presented.

  18. Modeling Guru: Knowledge Base for NASA Modelers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seablom, M. S.; Wojcik, G. S.; van Aartsen, B. H.

    2009-05-01

    Modeling Guru is an on-line knowledge-sharing resource for anyone involved with or interested in NASA's scientific models or High End Computing (HEC) systems. Developed and maintained by the NASA's Software Integration and Visualization Office (SIVO) and the NASA Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS), Modeling Guru's combined forums and knowledge base for research and collaboration is becoming a repository for the accumulated expertise of NASA's scientific modeling and HEC communities. All NASA modelers and associates are encouraged to participate and provide knowledge about the models and systems so that other users may benefit from their experience. Modeling Guru is divided into a hierarchy of communities, each with its own set forums and knowledge base documents. Current modeling communities include those for space science, land and atmospheric dynamics, atmospheric chemistry, and oceanography. In addition, there are communities focused on NCCS systems, HEC tools and libraries, and programming and scripting languages. Anyone may view most of the content on Modeling Guru (available at http://modelingguru.nasa.gov/), but you must log in to post messages and subscribe to community postings. The site offers a full range of "Web 2.0" features, including discussion forums, "wiki" document generation, document uploading, RSS feeds, search tools, blogs, email notification, and "breadcrumb" links. A discussion (a.k.a. forum "thread") is used to post comments, solicit feedback, or ask questions. If marked as a question, SIVO will monitor the thread, and normally respond within a day. Discussions can include embedded images, tables, and formatting through the use of the Rich Text Editor. Also, the user can add "Tags" to their thread to facilitate later searches. The "knowledge base" is comprised of documents that are used to capture and share expertise with others. The default "wiki" document lets users edit within the browser so others can easily collaborate on the

  19. A future of the model organism model

    PubMed Central

    Rine, Jasper

    2014-01-01

    Changes in technology are fundamentally reframing our concept of what constitutes a model organism. Nevertheless, research advances in the more traditional model organisms have enabled fresh and exciting opportunities for young scientists to establish new careers and offer the hope of comprehensive understanding of fundamental processes in life. New advances in translational research can be expected to heighten the importance of basic research in model organisms and expand opportunities. However, researchers must take special care and implement new resources to enable the newest members of the community to engage fully with the remarkable legacy of information in these fields. PMID:24577733

  20. 75 FR 39804 - Airworthiness Directives; The Boeing Company Model 757 Airplanes, Model 767 Airplanes, and Model...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-07-13

    ... Model 757 Airplanes, Model 767 Airplanes, and Model 777-200 and -300 Series Airplanes AGENCY: Federal... directive (AD) for certain Model 757 airplanes, Model 767 airplanes, and Model 777-200 and -300 series...) that would apply to certain Model 757 airplanes, Model 767 airplanes, and Model 777-200 and -300...

  1. Develop a Model Component

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ensey, Tyler S.

    2013-01-01

    During my internship at NASA, I was a model developer for Ground Support Equipment (GSE). The purpose of a model developer is to develop and unit test model component libraries (fluid, electrical, gas, etc.). The models are designed to simulate software for GSE (Ground Special Power, Crew Access Arm, Cryo, Fire and Leak Detection System, Environmental Control System (ECS), etc. .) before they are implemented into hardware. These models support verifying local control and remote software for End-Item Software Under Test (SUT). The model simulates the physical behavior (function, state, limits and 110) of each end-item and it's dependencies as defined in the Subsystem Interface Table, Software Requirements & Design Specification (SRDS), Ground Integrated Schematic (GIS), and System Mechanical Schematic.(SMS). The software of each specific model component is simulated through MATLAB's Simulink program. The intensiv model development life cycle is a.s follows: Identify source documents; identify model scope; update schedule; preliminary design review; develop model requirements; update model.. scope; update schedule; detailed design review; create/modify library component; implement library components reference; implement subsystem components; develop a test script; run the test script; develop users guide; send model out for peer review; the model is sent out for verifictionlvalidation; if there is empirical data, a validation data package is generated; if there is not empirical data, a verification package is generated; the test results are then reviewed; and finally, the user. requests accreditation, and a statement of accreditation is prepared. Once each component model is reviewed and approved, they are intertwined together into one integrated model. This integrated model is then tested itself, through a test script and autotest, so that it can be concluded that all models work conjointly, for a single purpose. The component I was assigned, specifically, was a

  2. Biosphere Model Report

    SciTech Connect

    D.W. Wu; A.J. Smith

    2004-11-08

    The purpose of this report is to document the biosphere model, the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), which describes radionuclide transport processes in the biosphere and associated human exposure that may arise as the result of radionuclide release from the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of the process models that support the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the license application (LA), TSPA-LA. The ERMYN provides the capability of performing human radiation dose assessments. This report documents the biosphere model, which includes: (1) Describing the reference biosphere, human receptor, exposure scenarios, and primary radionuclides for each exposure scenario (Section 6.1); (2) Developing a biosphere conceptual model using site-specific features, events, and processes (FEPs) (Section 6.2), the reference biosphere (Section 6.1.1), the human receptor (Section 6.1.2), and approximations (Sections 6.3.1.4 and 6.3.2.4); (3) Building a mathematical model using the biosphere conceptual model (Section 6.3) and published biosphere models (Sections 6.4 and 6.5); (4) Summarizing input parameters for the mathematical model, including the uncertainty associated with input values (Section 6.6); (5) Identifying improvements in the ERMYN compared with the model used in previous biosphere modeling (Section 6.7); (6) Constructing an ERMYN implementation tool (model) based on the biosphere mathematical model using GoldSim stochastic simulation software (Sections 6.8 and 6.9); (7) Verifying the ERMYN by comparing output from the software with hand calculations to ensure that the GoldSim implementation is correct (Section 6.10); (8) Validating the ERMYN by corroborating it with published biosphere models; comparing conceptual models, mathematical models, and numerical results (Section 7).

  3. [MODELING INFLAMMATORY EDEMA: ARE THE MODELS INTERCHANGEABLE].

    PubMed

    Hanh, Cong Hong; Khaziakhmetova, V N; Ziganshina, L E

    2015-01-01

    Experimental modeling of inflammatory edema by sub-plantar injection of carrageenan and formalin in mice and rats is widely used to evaluate potential anti-inflammatory activity of new drugs. This systematic analysis of published data showed that carrageenan induced paw edema model is used for evaluating the anti-inflammatory activity mostly in rats rather than mice. Formalin induced paw edema in rats and mice is used primarily for evaluation of the analgesic activity of drugs. Taken together, the results of this systematic review of available literature on edema modeling substantiate recommendation to use carrageenan paw edema in rats and formalin paw edema in mice as complementary, but not interchangeable models of inflammation. PMID:26591204

  4. Model documention: Commercial Sector Energy Model. [CSEM

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1984-08-10

    The CSEM forecasts floorspace area and demand for natural gas, electricity and fuel oil for six building categories in four Census regions. Real disposable personal income, population and real fuel prices are the major exogenous drivers of these forecasts. The commercial model uses the coefficients from the three econometric submodules to calculate building floorspace, end-use fuel choices, and utilization (enegy use per square foot) for the three major fuels. Separately from these structural components the model also calculates energy use for the minor fuels liquefied petroleum gas, kerosene, coal and motor gasoline. Through the use of accounting equations, the commercial model combines the structural components to get total commercial energy use over the major fuels. It then adds in the minor fuels, passes the information back to the other models and writes reports.

  5. Aerosol Modeling for the Global Model Initiative

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weisenstein, Debra K.; Ko, Malcolm K. W.

    2001-01-01

    The goal of this project is to develop an aerosol module to be used within the framework of the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI). The model development work will be preformed jointly by the University of Michigan and AER, using existing aerosol models at the two institutions as starting points. The GMI aerosol model will be tested, evaluated against observations, and then applied to assessment of the effects of aircraft sulfur emissions as needed by the NASA Subsonic Assessment in 2001. The work includes the following tasks: 1. Implementation of the sulfur cycle within GMI, including sources, sinks, and aqueous conversion of sulfur. Aerosol modules will be added as they are developed and the GMI schedule permits. 2. Addition of aerosol types other than sulfate particles, including dust, soot, organic carbon, and black carbon. 3. Development of new and more efficient parameterizations for treating sulfate aerosol nucleation, condensation, and coagulation among different particle sizes and types.

  6. Nonlinear Modeling by Assembling Piecewise Linear Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yao, Weigang; Liou, Meng-Sing

    2013-01-01

    To preserve nonlinearity of a full order system over a parameters range of interest, we propose a simple modeling approach by assembling a set of piecewise local solutions, including the first-order Taylor series terms expanded about some sampling states. The work by Rewienski and White inspired our use of piecewise linear local solutions. The assembly of these local approximations is accomplished by assigning nonlinear weights, through radial basis functions in this study. The efficacy of the proposed procedure is validated for a two-dimensional airfoil moving at different Mach numbers and pitching motions, under which the flow exhibits prominent nonlinear behaviors. All results confirm that our nonlinear model is accurate and stable for predicting not only aerodynamic forces but also detailed flowfields. Moreover, the model is robustness-accurate for inputs considerably different from the base trajectory in form and magnitude. This modeling preserves nonlinearity of the problems considered in a rather simple and accurate manner.

  7. Aggregation in ecosystem models and model stability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giricheva, Evgeniya

    2015-05-01

    Using a multimodal approach to research ecosystems improves usage of available information on an object. This study presents several models of the Bering Sea ecosystem. The ecosystem is considered as a closed object, that is, the influence of the environment is not provided. We then add the links with the external medium in the models. The models differ in terms of the degree and method of grouping components. Our method is based on the differences in habitat and food source of groups, which allows us to determine the grouping of species with a greater effect on system dynamics. In particular, we determine whether benthic fish aggregation or pelagic fish aggregation can change the consumption structure of some groups of species, and consequently, the behavior of the entire model system.

  8. PREDICTIVE MODELS. Enhanced Oil Recovery Model

    SciTech Connect

    Ray, R.M.

    1992-02-26

    PREDICTIVE MODELS is a collection of five models - CFPM, CO2PM, ICPM, PFPM, and SFPM - used in the 1982-1984 National Petroleum Council study of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) potential. Each pertains to a specific EOR process designed to squeeze additional oil from aging or spent oil fields. The processes are: 1 chemical flooding, where soap-like surfactants are injected into the reservoir to wash out the oil; 2 carbon dioxide miscible flooding, where carbon dioxide mixes with the lighter hydrocarbons making the oil easier to displace; 3 in-situ combustion, which uses the heat from burning some of the underground oil to thin the product; 4 polymer flooding, where thick, cohesive material is pumped into a reservoir to push the oil through the underground rock; and 5 steamflood, where pressurized steam is injected underground to thin the oil. CFPM, the Chemical Flood Predictive Model, models micellar (surfactant)-polymer floods in reservoirs, which have been previously waterflooded to residual oil saturation. Thus, only true tertiary floods are considered. An option allows a rough estimate of oil recovery by caustic or caustic-polymer processes. CO2PM, the Carbon Dioxide miscible flooding Predictive Model, is applicable to both secondary (mobile oil) and tertiary (residual oil) floods, and to either continuous CO2 injection or water-alternating gas processes. ICPM, the In-situ Combustion Predictive Model, computes the recovery and profitability of an in-situ combustion project from generalized performance predictive algorithms. PFPM, the Polymer Flood Predictive Model, is switch-selectable for either polymer or waterflooding, and an option allows the calculation of the incremental oil recovery and economics of polymer relative to waterflooding. SFPM, the Steamflood Predictive Model, is applicable to the steam drive process, but not to cyclic steam injection (steam soak) processes.

  9. X-33 RCS model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    Model support system and instumentation cabling of the 1% scale X-33 reaction control system model. Installed in the Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel for supersonic testing. In building 1251, test section #2.

  10. Mass modeling for bars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Butler, Thomas G.

    1987-01-01

    Methods of modeling mass for bars are surveyed. A method for extending John Archer's concept of consistent mass beyond just translational inertia effects is included. Recommendations are given for various types of modeling situations.

  11. Bounding Species Distribution Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Jarnevich, Cahterine S.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Esaias, Wayne E.

    2011-01-01

    Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS) might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for "clamping" model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART) and maximum entropy (Maxent) models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 (5): 642-647, 2011].

  12. Bounding species distribution models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stohlgren, T.J.; Jarnevich, C.S.; Esaias, W.E.; Morisette, J.T.

    2011-01-01

    Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS) might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for "clamping" model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART) and maximum entropy (Maxent) models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used. ?? 2011 Current Zoology.

  13. SEDIMENT GEOCHEMICAL MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    Until recently, sediment geochemical models (diagenetic models) have been only able to explain sedimentary flux and concentration profiles for a few simplified geochemical cycles (e.g., nitrogen, carbon and sulfur). However with advances in numerical methods, increased accuracy ...

  14. Of Molecules and Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brinner, Bonnie

    1992-01-01

    Presents an activity in which models help students visualize both the DNA process and transcription. After constructing DNA, RNA messenger, and RNA transfer molecules; students model cells, protein synthesis, codons, and RNA movement. (MDH)

  15. Modeling Infectious Diseases

    MedlinePlus

    ... MIDAS models require a breadth of knowledge, the network draws together an interdisciplinary team of researchers with expertise in epidemiology, infectious diseases, computational biology, statistics, social sciences, physics, computer sciences and informatics. In 2006, MIDAS modelers simulated ...

  16. Modeling DNA Replication.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bennett, Joan

    1998-01-01

    Recommends the use of a model of DNA made out of Velcro to help students visualize the steps of DNA replication. Includes a materials list, construction directions, and details of the demonstration using the model parts. (DDR)

  17. Communication system modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holland, L. D.; Walsh, J. R., Jr.; Wetherington, R. D.

    1971-01-01

    This report presents the results of work on communications systems modeling and covers three different areas of modeling. The first of these deals with the modeling of signals in communication systems in the frequency domain and the calculation of spectra for various modulations. These techniques are applied in determining the frequency spectra produced by a unified carrier system, the down-link portion of the Command and Communications System (CCS). The second modeling area covers the modeling of portions of a communication system on a block basis. A detailed analysis and modeling effort based on control theory is presented along with its application to modeling of the automatic frequency control system of an FM transmitter. A third topic discussed is a method for approximate modeling of stiff systems using state variable techniques.

  18. TMDL RUSLE MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    We developed a simplified spreadsheet modeling approach for characterizing and prioritizing sources of sediment loadings from watersheds in the United States. A simplified modeling approach was developed to evaluate sediment loadings from watersheds and selected land segments. ...

  19. Modeling EERE deployment programs

    SciTech Connect

    Cort, K. A.; Hostick, D. J.; Belzer, D. B.; Livingston, O. V.

    2007-11-01

    The purpose of the project was to identify and characterize the modeling of deployment programs within the EERE Technology Development (TD) programs, address possible improvements to the modeling process, and note gaps in knowledge for future research.

  20. Consistent model driven architecture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niepostyn, Stanisław J.

    2015-09-01

    The goal of the MDA is to produce software systems from abstract models in a way where human interaction is restricted to a minimum. These abstract models are based on the UML language. However, the semantics of UML models is defined in a natural language. Subsequently the verification of consistency of these diagrams is needed in order to identify errors in requirements at the early stage of the development process. The verification of consistency is difficult due to a semi-formal nature of UML diagrams. We propose automatic verification of consistency of the series of UML diagrams originating from abstract models implemented with our consistency rules. This Consistent Model Driven Architecture approach enables us to generate automatically complete workflow applications from consistent and complete models developed from abstract models (e.g. Business Context Diagram). Therefore, our method can be used to check practicability (feasibility) of software architecture models.

  1. System Advisor Model

    2010-03-01

    The System Advisor Model (SAM) is a performance and economic model designed to facilitate decision making for people involved in the renewable energy industry, ranging from project managers and engineers to incentive program designers, technology developers, and researchers.

  2. Comparison of Decision Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feinberg, A.; Miles, J. R. F.; Smith, J. H.; Scheuer, E. M.

    1986-01-01

    Two methods of multiattribute decision analysis compared in report. One method employs linear utility model. Other utilizes multiplicative utility model. Report based on interviews with experts in automotive technology to obtain their preferences regarding 10 new types of vehicles.

  3. Protein solubility modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Agena, S. M.; Pusey, M. L.; Bogle, I. D.

    1999-01-01

    A thermodynamic framework (UNIQUAC model with temperature dependent parameters) is applied to model the salt-induced protein crystallization equilibrium, i.e., protein solubility. The framework introduces a term for the solubility product describing protein transfer between the liquid and solid phase and a term for the solution behavior describing deviation from ideal solution. Protein solubility is modeled as a function of salt concentration and temperature for a four-component system consisting of a protein, pseudo solvent (water and buffer), cation, and anion (salt). Two different systems, lysozyme with sodium chloride and concanavalin A with ammonium sulfate, are investigated. Comparison of the modeled and experimental protein solubility data results in an average root mean square deviation of 5.8%, demonstrating that the model closely follows the experimental behavior. Model calculations and model parameters are reviewed to examine the model and protein crystallization process. Copyright 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

  4. METEOROLOGICAL AND TRANSPORT MODELING

    EPA Science Inventory

    Advanced air quality simulation models, such as CMAQ, as well as other transport and dispersion models, require accurate and detailed meteorology fields. These meteorology fields include primary 3-dimensional dynamical and thermodynamical variables (e.g., winds, temperature, mo...

  5. Soil moisture modeling review

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hildreth, W. W.

    1978-01-01

    A determination of the state of the art in soil moisture transport modeling based on physical or physiological principles was made. It was found that soil moisture models based on physical principles have been under development for more than 10 years. However, these models were shown to represent infiltration and redistribution of soil moisture quite well. Evapotranspiration has not been as adequately incorporated into the models.

  6. Future of groundwater modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langevin, Christian D.; Panday, Sorab

    2012-01-01

    With an increasing need to better manage water resources, the future of groundwater modeling is bright and exciting. However, while the past can be described and the present is known, the future of groundwater modeling, just like a groundwater model result, is highly uncertain and any prediction is probably not going to be entirely representative. Thus we acknowledge this as we present our vision of where groundwater modeling may be headed.

  7. Modeling of spacecraft charging

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whipple, E. C., Jr.

    1977-01-01

    Three types of modeling of spacecraft charging are discussed: statistical models, parametric models, and physical models. Local time dependence of circuit upset for DoD and communication satellites, and electron current to a sphere with an assumed Debye potential distribution are presented. Four regions were involved in spacecraft charging: (1) undisturbed plasma, (2) plasma sheath region, (3) spacecraft surface, and (4) spacecraft equivalent circuit.

  8. Hierarchical Bass model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tashiro, Tohru

    2014-03-01

    We propose a new model about diffusion of a product which includes a memory of how many adopters or advertisements a non-adopter met, where (non-)adopters mean people (not) possessing the product. This effect is lacking in the Bass model. As an application, we utilize the model to fit the iPod sales data, and so the better agreement is obtained than the Bass model.

  9. Modeling the Pacific Ocean

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, M.A.; O'Brien, J.J. )

    1990-01-01

    Two numerical models utilizing primitive equations (two momentum equations and a mass continuity equation) simulate the oceanography of the Pacific Ocean from 20{degrees}S to 50{degrees}N. The authors examine the abundant model data through visualization , by animating the appropriate model fields and viewing the time history of each model simulation as a color movie. The animations are used to aid understanding of ocean circulation.

  10. Avionics Architecture Modelling Language

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alana, Elena; Naranjo, Hector; Valencia, Raul; Medina, Alberto; Honvault, Christophe; Rugina, Ana; Panunzia, Marco; Dellandrea, Brice; Garcia, Gerald

    2014-08-01

    This paper presents the ESA AAML (Avionics Architecture Modelling Language) study, which aimed at advancing the avionics engineering practices towards a model-based approach by (i) identifying and prioritising the avionics-relevant analyses, (ii) specifying the modelling language features necessary to support the identified analyses, and (iii) recommending/prototyping software tooling to demonstrate the automation of the selected analyses based on a modelling language and compliant with the defined specification.

  11. Current sheet model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1981-01-01

    The model of a rectenna based on the current sheet equivalency of a large planar array is described. The model is mathematically characterized by expression for the fraction of the incident plane wave that is reflected from the sheet. The model is conceptually justified for normal incidence by comparing it to the waveguide model in which evanescent modes, present as beyond and cutoff, correspond to the near field components which become negligible at any significant distance from the antenna array.

  12. Modeling Complex Calorimeters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Figueroa-Feliciano, Enectali

    2004-01-01

    We have developed a software suite that models complex calorimeters in the time and frequency domain. These models can reproduce all measurements that we currently do in a lab setting, like IV curves, impedance measurements, noise measurements, and pulse generation. Since all these measurements are modeled from one set of parameters, we can fully describe a detector and characterize its behavior. This leads to a model than can be used effectively for engineering and design of detectors for particular applications.

  13. Mathematical circulatory system model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lakin, William D. (Inventor); Stevens, Scott A. (Inventor)

    2010-01-01

    A system and method of modeling a circulatory system including a regulatory mechanism parameter. In one embodiment, a regulatory mechanism parameter in a lumped parameter model is represented as a logistic function. In another embodiment, the circulatory system model includes a compliant vessel, the model having a parameter representing a change in pressure due to contraction of smooth muscles of a wall of the vessel.

  14. Campus Energy Modeling Platform

    2014-09-19

    NREL's Campus Energy Modeling project provides a suite of simulation tools for integrated, data driven energy modeling of commercial buildings and campuses using Simulink. The tools enable development of fully interconnected models for commercial campus energy infrastructure, including electrical distribution systems, district heating and cooling, onsite generation (both conventional and renewable), building loads, energy storage, and control systems.

  15. Models, Norms and Sharing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harris, Mary B.

    To investigate the effect of modeling on altruism, 156 third and fifth grade children were exposed to a model who either shared with them, gave to a charity, or refused to share. The test apparatus, identified as a game, consisted of a box with signal lights and a chute through which marbles were dispensed. Subjects and the model played the game…

  16. Biophysical and spectral modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goel, N. S. (Principal Investigator)

    1982-01-01

    Activities and results of a project to develop strategies for modeling vegetative canopy reflectance are reported. Specific tasks included the inversion of canopy reflectance models to estimate agronomic variables (particularly leaf area index) from in-situ reflectance measurements, and a study of possible uses of ecological models in analyzing temporal profiles of greenness.

  17. A Model Chemistry Class.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Summerlin, Lee; Borgford, Christie

    1989-01-01

    Described is an activity which uses a 96-well reaction plate and soda straws to construct a model of the periodic table of the elements. The model illustrates the ionization energies of the various elements. Construction of the model and related concepts are discussed. (CW)

  18. What Is a Model?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McNamara, James F.

    1996-01-01

    Uses R.A. Ackoff's connotations to define "model" as noun, adjective, and verb. Researchers should use various types of models (iconic, analogue, or symbolic) for three purposes: to reveal reality, to explain the past and present, and to predict and control the future. Herbert Simon's process model for administrative decision making has widespread…

  19. Crushed Salt Constitutive Model

    SciTech Connect

    Callahan, G.D.

    1999-02-01

    The constitutive model used to describe the deformation of crushed salt is presented in this report. Two mechanisms -- dislocation creep and grain boundary diffusional pressure solution -- are combined to form the basis for the constitutive model governing the deformation of crushed salt. The constitutive model is generalized to represent three-dimensional states of stress. Upon complete consolidation, the crushed-salt model reproduces the Multimechanism Deformation (M-D) model typically used for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) host geological formation salt. New shear consolidation tests are combined with an existing database that includes hydrostatic consolidation and shear consolidation tests conducted on WIPP and southeastern New Mexico salt. Nonlinear least-squares model fitting to the database produced two sets of material parameter values for the model -- one for the shear consolidation tests and one for a combination of the shear and hydrostatic consolidation tests. Using the parameter values determined from the fitted database, the constitutive model is validated against constant strain-rate tests. Shaft seal problems are analyzed to demonstrate model-predicted consolidation of the shaft seal crushed-salt component. Based on the fitting statistics, the ability of the model to predict the test data, and the ability of the model to predict load paths and test data outside of the fitted database, the model appears to capture the creep consolidation behavior of crushed salt reasonably well.

  20. Modeling rapidly rotating stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rieutord, M.

    2006-06-01

    We review the quest of modeling rapidly rotating stars during the past 40 years and detail the challenges to be taken up by models facing new data from interferometry, seismology, spectroscopy... We then present the progress of the ESTER project aimed at giving a physically self-consistent model for the structure and evolution of rapidly rotating stars.

  1. Retrofitted supersymmetric models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bose, Manatosh

    This thesis explores several models of metastable dynamic supersymmetry breaking (MDSB) and a supersymmetric model of hybrid inflation. All of these models possess discrete R-symmetries. We specially focus on the retrofitted models for supersymmetry breaking models. At first we construct retrofitted models of gravity mediation. In these models we explore the genericity of the so-called "split supersymmetry." We show that with the simplest models, where the goldstino multiplet is neutral under the discrete R-symmetry, a split spectrum is not generic. However if the goldstino superfield is charged under some symmetry other than the R-symmetry, then a split spectrum is achievable but not generic. We also present a gravity mediated model where the fine tuning of the Z-boson mass is dictated by a discrete choice rather than a continuous tuning. Then we construct retrofitted models of gauge mediated SUSY breaking. We show that, in these models, if the approximate R-symmetry of the theory is spontaneously broken, the messenger scale is fixed; if explicitly broken by retrofitted couplings, a very small dimensionless number is required; if supergravity corrections are responsible for the symmetry breaking, at least two moderately small couplings are required, and that there is a large range of possible messenger scales. Finally we switch our attention to small field hybrid inflation. We construct a model that yields a spectral index ns = 0.96. Here, we also briefly discuss the possibility of relating the scale of inflation with the dynamics responsible for supersymmetry breaking.

  2. Modeling Natural Selection

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bogiages, Christopher A.; Lotter, Christine

    2011-01-01

    In their research, scientists generate, test, and modify scientific models. These models can be shared with others and demonstrate a scientist's understanding of how the natural world works. Similarly, students can generate and modify models to gain a better understanding of the content, process, and nature of science (Kenyon, Schwarz, and Hug…

  3. A Model Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thornton, Bradley D.; Smalley, Robert A.

    2008-01-01

    Building information modeling (BIM) uses three-dimensional modeling concepts, information technology and interoperable software to design, construct and operate a facility. However, BIM can be more than a tool for virtual modeling--it can provide schools with a 3-D walkthrough of a project while it still is on the electronic drawing board. BIM can…

  4. Impact-GMI Model

    2007-03-22

    IMPACT-GMI is an atmospheric chemical transport model designed to run on massively parallel computers. It is designed to model trace pollutants in the atmosphere. It includes models for emission, chemistry and deposition of pollutants. It can be used to assess air quality and its impact on future climate change.

  5. Surface complexation modeling

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Adsorption-desorption reactions are important processes that affect the transport of contaminants in the environment. Surface complexation models are chemical models that can account for the effects of variable chemical conditions, such as pH, on adsorption reactions. These models define specific ...

  6. SECOND GENERATION MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    One of the environmental and economic models that the U.S. EPA uses to assess climate change policies is the Second Generation Model (SGM). SGM is a 13 region, 24 sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the world that can be used to estimate the domestic and intern...

  7. Progress in mix modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Harrison, A.K.

    1997-03-14

    We have identified the Cranfill multifluid turbulence model (Cranfill, 1992) as a starting point for development of subgrid models of instability, turbulent and mixing processes. We have differenced the closed system of equations in conservation form, and coded them in the object-oriented hydrodynamics code FLAG, which is to be used as a testbed for such models.

  8. Modeling EERE Deployment Programs

    SciTech Connect

    Cort, K. A.; Hostick, D. J.; Belzer, D. B.; Livingston, O. V.

    2007-11-01

    This report compiles information and conclusions gathered as part of the “Modeling EERE Deployment Programs” project. The purpose of the project was to identify and characterize the modeling of deployment programs within the EERE Technology Development (TD) programs, address possible improvements to the modeling process, and note gaps in knowledge in which future research is needed.

  9. Modern Media Education Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fedorov, Alexander

    2011-01-01

    The author supposed that media education models can be divided into the following groups: (1) educational-information models (the study of the theory, history, language of media culture, etc.), based on the cultural, aesthetic, semiotic, socio-cultural theories of media education; (2) educational-ethical models (the study of moral, religions,…

  10. Rock Properties Model

    SciTech Connect

    C. Lum

    2004-09-16

    The purpose of this model report is to document the Rock Properties Model version 3.1 with regard to input data, model methods, assumptions, uncertainties and limitations of model results, and qualification status of the model. The report also documents the differences between the current and previous versions and validation of the model. The rock properties model provides mean matrix and lithophysae porosity, and the cross-correlated mean bulk density as direct input to the ''Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Model Abstraction'', MDL-NBS-HS-000021, REV 02 (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170042]). The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in Section 6.6 and 8.2. Model validation accomplished by corroboration with data not cited as direct input is discussed in Section 7. The revision of this model report was performed as part of activities being conducted under the ''Technical Work Plan for: The Integrated Site Model, Revision 05'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169635]). The purpose of this revision is to bring the report up to current procedural requirements and address the Regulatory Integration Team evaluation comments. The work plan describes the scope, objectives, tasks, methodology, and procedures for this process.

  11. Modeling Climate Dynamically

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walsh, Jim; McGehee, Richard

    2013-01-01

    A dynamical systems approach to energy balance models of climate is presented, focusing on low order, or conceptual, models. Included are global average and latitude-dependent, surface temperature models. The development and analysis of the differential equations and corresponding bifurcation diagrams provides a host of appropriate material for…

  12. Model Breaking Points Conceptualized

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vig, Rozy; Murray, Eileen; Star, Jon R.

    2014-01-01

    Current curriculum initiatives (e.g., National Governors Association Center for Best Practices and Council of Chief State School Officers 2010) advocate that models be used in the mathematics classroom. However, despite their apparent promise, there comes a point when models break, a point in the mathematical problem space where the model cannot,…

  13. URBAN AIRSHED MODEL (UAM)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Urban Airshed Model (UAM) is an urban scale, three-dimensional, grid type, numerical simulation model. The model incorporates a condensed photochemical kinetics mechanism for urban atmospheres. The UAM is designed for computing ozone (O3) concentrations under short-term, epis...

  14. Model Rockets and Microchips.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fitzsimmons, Charles P.

    1986-01-01

    Points out the instructional applications and program possibilities of a unit on model rocketry. Describes the ways that microcomputers can assist in model rocket design and in problem calculations. Provides a descriptive listing of model rocket software for the Apple II microcomputer. (ML)

  15. New Directions for Modeling?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mason, Thomas R.

    1976-01-01

    Noting the disappointing results of past experimentation with computer modeling technology in higher education, the author discusses developments which promise potential: communication between model builders and users, interaction between large- and small-scale models, interface with operating data systems, emphasis on outcomes, and continued…

  16. General Graded Response Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Samejima, Fumiko

    This paper describes the graded response model. The graded response model represents a family of mathematical models that deal with ordered polytomous categories, such as: (1) letter grading; (2) an attitude survey with "strongly disagree, disagree, agree, and strongly agree" choices; (3) partial credit given in accord with an individual's degree…

  17. Models for Products

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Speiser, Bob; Walter, Chuck

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores how models can support productive thinking. For us a model is a "thing", a tool to help make sense of something. We restrict attention to specific models for whole-number multiplication, hence the wording of the title. They support evolving thinking in large measure through the ways their users redesign them. They assume new…

  18. REGULATORY AIR QUALITY MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Appendix W to 40CFR Part 51 (Guideline on Air Quality Models) specifies the models to be used for purposes of permitting, PSD, and SIPs. Through a formal regulatory process this modeling guidance is periodically updated to reflect current science. In the most recent action, thr...

  19. Molecular Models in Biology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goodman, Richard E.

    1970-01-01

    Describes types of molecular models (ball-and-stick, framework, and space-filling) and evaluates commercially available kits. Gives instructions for constructive models from polystyrene balls and pipe-cleaners. Models are useful for class demonstrations although not sufficiently accurate for research use. Illustrations show biologically important…

  20. Modeling and Remodeling Writing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hayes, John R.

    2012-01-01

    In Section 1 of this article, the author discusses the succession of models of adult writing that he and his colleagues have proposed from 1980 to the present. He notes the most important changes that differentiate earlier and later models and discusses reasons for the changes. In Section 2, he describes his recent efforts to model young…

  1. IR DIAL performance modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Sharlemann, E.T.

    1994-07-01

    We are developing a DIAL performance model for CALIOPE at LLNL. The intent of the model is to provide quick and interactive parameter sensitivity calculations with immediate graphical output. A brief overview of the features of the performance model is given, along with an example of performance calculations for a non-CALIOPE application.

  2. Global Timber Model (GTM)

    EPA Science Inventory

    GTM is an economic model capable of examining global forestry land-use, management, and trade responses to policies. In responding to a policy, the model captures afforestation, forest management, and avoided deforestation behavior. The model estimates harvests in industrial fore...

  3. Hierarchical Models of Attitude.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reddy, Srinivas K.; LaBarbera, Priscilla A.

    1985-01-01

    The application and use of hierarchical models is illustrated, using the example of the structure of attitudes toward a new product and a print advertisement. Subjects were college students who responded to seven-point bipolar scales. Hierarchical models were better than nonhierarchical models in conceptualizing attitude but not intention. (GDC)

  4. Generalized Latent Trait Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moustaki, Irini; Knott, Martin

    2000-01-01

    Discusses a general model framework within which manifest variables with different distributions in the exponential family can be analyzed with a latent trait model. Presents a unified maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of the generalized latent trait model and discusses the scoring of individuals on the latent dimensions.…

  5. Modelling Vocabulary Loss

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meara, Paul

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes some simple simulation models of vocabulary attrition. The attrition process is modelled using a random autonomous Boolean network model, and some parallels with real attrition data are drawn. The paper argues that applying a complex systems approach to attrition can provide some important insights, which suggest that real…

  6. Modelling MIZ dynamics in a global model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rynders, Stefanie; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Feltham, Daniel; Nurser, George; Naveira Garabato, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    Exposure of large, previously ice-covered areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface ocean waves results in the Arctic pack ice cover becoming more fragmented and mobile, with large regions of ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). The need for better climate predictions, along with growing economic activity in the Polar Oceans, necessitates climate and forecasting models that can simulate fragmented sea ice with a greater fidelity. Current models are not fully fit for the purpose, since they neither model surface ocean waves in the MIZ, nor account for the effect of floe fragmentation on drag, nor include sea ice rheology that represents both the now thinner pack ice and MIZ ice dynamics. All these processes affect the momentum transfer to the ocean. We present initial results from a global ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) coupled to the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE. The model setup implements a novel rheological formulation for sea ice dynamics, accounting for ice floe collisions, thus offering a seamless framework for pack ice and MIZ simulations. The effect of surface waves on ice motion is included through wave pressure and the turbulent kinetic energy of ice floes. In the multidecadal model integrations we examine MIZ and basin scale sea ice and oceanic responses to the changes in ice dynamics. We analyse model sensitivities and attribute them to key sea ice and ocean dynamical mechanisms. The results suggest that the effect of the new ice rheology is confined to the MIZ. However with the current increase in summer MIZ area, which is projected to continue and may become the dominant type of sea ice in the Arctic, we argue that the effects of the combined sea ice rheology will be noticeable in large areas of the Arctic Ocean, affecting sea ice and ocean. With this study we assert that to make more accurate sea ice predictions in the changing Arctic, models need to include MIZ dynamics and physics.

  7. The impact of volcanic aerosol on the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex: mechanisms and sensitivity to forcing structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toohey, M.; Krüger, K.; Bittner, M.; Timmreck, C.; Schmidt, H.

    2014-06-01

    Observations and simple theoretical arguments suggest that the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex is stronger in winters following major volcanic eruptions. However, recent studies show that climate models forced by prescribed volcanic aerosol fields fail to reproduce this effect. We investigate the impact of volcanic aerosol forcing on stratospheric dynamics, including the strength of the NH polar vortex, in ensemble simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. The model is forced by four different prescribed forcing sets representing the radiative properties of stratospheric aerosol following the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo: two forcing sets are based on observations, and are commonly used in climate model simulations, and two forcing sets are constructed based on coupled aerosol-climate model simulations. For all forcings, we find that temperature and zonal wind anomalies in the NH high latitudes are not directly impacted by anomalous volcanic aerosol heating. Instead, high latitude effects result from robust enhancements in stratospheric residual circulation, which in turn result, at least in part, from enhanced stratospheric wave activity. High latitude effects are therefore much less robust than would be expected if they were the direct result of aerosol heating. While there is significant ensemble variability in the high latitude response to each aerosol forcing set, the mean response is sensitive to the forcing set used. Significant differences, for example, are found in the NH polar stratosphere temperature and zonal wind response to two different forcing data sets constructed from different versions of SAGE II aerosol observations. Significant strengthening of the polar vortex, in rough agreement with the expected response, is achieved only using aerosol forcing extracted from prior coupled aerosol-climate model simulations. Differences in the dynamical response to the different forcing sets used imply that reproducing

  8. Advances in Watershed Models and Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeh, G. T.; Zhang, F.

    2015-12-01

    The development of watershed models and their applications to real-world problems has evolved significantly since 1960's. Watershed models can be classified based on what media are included, what processes are dealt with, and what approaches are taken. In term of media, a watershed may include segregated overland regime, river-canal-open channel networks, ponds-reservoirs-small lakes, and subsurface media. It may also include integrated media of all these or a partial set of these as well as man-made control structures. In term of processes, a watershed model may deal with coupled or decoupled hydrological and biogeochemical cycles. These processes include fluid flow, thermal transport, salinity transport, sediment transport, reactive transport, and biota and microbe kinetics. In terms of approaches, either parametric or physics-based approach can be taken. This talk discusses the evolution of watershed models in the past sixty years. The advances of watershed models center around their increasing design capability to foster these segregated or integrated media and coupled or decoupled processes. Widely used models developed by academia, research institutes, government agencies, and private industries will be reviewed in terms of the media and processes included as well as approaches taken. Many types of potential benchmark problems in general can be proposed and will be discussed. This presentation will focus on three benchmark problems of biogeochemical cycles. These three problems, dealing with water quality transport, will be formulated in terms of reactive transport. Simulation results will be illustrated using WASH123D, a watershed model developed and continuously updated by the author and his PhD graduates. Keywords: Hydrological Cycles, Biogeochemical Cycles, Biota Kinetics, Parametric Approach, Physics-based Approach, Reactive Transport.

  9. Modeling agriculture in the Community Land Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drewniak, B.; Song, J.; Prell, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Jacob, R.

    2013-04-01

    The potential impact of climate change on agriculture is uncertain. In addition, agriculture could influence above- and below-ground carbon storage. Development of models that represent agriculture is necessary to address these impacts. We have developed an approach to integrate agriculture representations for three crop types - maize, soybean, and spring wheat - into the coupled carbon-nitrogen version of the Community Land Model (CLM), to help address these questions. Here we present the new model, CLM-Crop, validated against observations from two AmeriFlux sites in the United States, planted with maize and soybean. Seasonal carbon fluxes compared well with field measurements for soybean, but not as well for maize. CLM-Crop yields were comparable with observations in countries such as the United States, Argentina, and China, although the generality of the crop model and its lack of technology and irrigation made direct comparison difficult. CLM-Crop was compared against the standard CLM3.5, which simulates crops as grass. The comparison showed improvement in gross primary productivity in regions where crops are the dominant vegetation cover. Crop yields and productivity were negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with precipitation, in agreement with other modeling studies. In case studies with the new crop model looking at impacts of residue management and planting date on crop yield, we found that increased residue returned to the litter pool increased crop yield, while reduced residue returns resulted in yield decreases. Using climate controls to signal planting date caused different responses in different crops. Maize and soybean had opposite reactions: when low temperature threshold resulted in early planting, maize responded with a loss of yield, but soybean yields increased. Our improvements in CLM demonstrate a new capability in the model - simulating agriculture in a realistic way, complete with fertilizer and residue management

  10. Pediatric Computational Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soni, Bharat K.; Kim, Jong-Eun; Ito, Yasushi; Wagner, Christina D.; Yang, King-Hay

    A computational model is a computer program that attempts to simulate a behavior of a complex system by solving mathematical equations associated with principles and laws of physics. Computational models can be used to predict the body's response to injury-producing conditions that cannot be simulated experimentally or measured in surrogate/animal experiments. Computational modeling also provides means by which valid experimental animal and cadaveric data can be extrapolated to a living person. Widely used computational models for injury biomechanics include multibody dynamics and finite element (FE) models. Both multibody and FE methods have been used extensively to study adult impact biomechanics in the past couple of decades.

  11. UZ Colloid Transport Model

    SciTech Connect

    M. McGraw

    2000-04-13

    The UZ Colloid Transport model development plan states that the objective of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to document the development of a model for simulating unsaturated colloid transport. This objective includes the following: (1) use of a process level model to evaluate the potential mechanisms for colloid transport at Yucca Mountain; (2) Provide ranges of parameters for significant colloid transport processes to Performance Assessment (PA) for the unsaturated zone (UZ); (3) Provide a basis for development of an abstracted model for use in PA calculations.

  12. Pilot model hypothesis testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Broussard, J. R.; Berry, P. W.

    1982-01-01

    The aircraft control time history predicted by the optimal control pilot model and actual pilot tracking data obtained from NASA Langley's differential maneuvering simulator (DMS) are analyzed. The analysis is performed using a hypothesis testing scheme modified to allow for changes in the true hypothesis. A finite number of pilot models, each with different hypothesized internal model representations of the aircraft dynamics, are constructed. The hypothesis testing scheme determines the relative probability that each pilot model best matches the DMS data. By observing the changes in probabilities, it is possible to determine when the pilot changes control strategy and which hypothesized pilot model best represent's the pilot's control behavior.

  13. Models of Goldstone gauginos

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alves, Daniele S. M.; Galloway, Jamison; McCullough, Matthew; Weiner, Neal

    2016-04-01

    Models with Dirac gauginos are appealing scenarios for physics beyond the Standard Model. They have smaller radiative corrections to scalar soft masses, a suppression of certain supersymmetry (SUSY) production processes at the LHC, and ameliorated flavor constraints. Unfortunately, they are generically plagued by tachyons charged under the Standard Model, and attempts to eliminate such states typically spoil the positive features. The recently proposed "Goldstone gaugino" mechanism provides a simple realization of Dirac gauginos that is automatically free of dangerous tachyonic states. We provide details on this mechanism and explore models for its origin. In particular, we find SUSY QCD models that realize this idea simply and discuss scenarios for unification.

  14. The FREZCHEM Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marion, Giles M.; Kargel, Jeffrey S.

    Implementation of the Pitzer approach is through the FREZCHEM (FREEZING CHEMISTRY) model, which is at the core of this work. This model was originally designed to simulate salt chemistries and freezing processes at low temperatures (-54 to 25°C) and 1 atm pressure. Over the years, this model has been broadened to include more chemistries (from 16 to 58 solid phases), a broader temperature range for some chemistries (to 113°C), and incorporation of a pressure dependence (1 to 1000 bars) into the model. Implementation, parameterization, validation, and limitations of the FREZCHEM model are extensively discussed in Chapter 3.

  15. Surrogate waveform models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blackman, Jonathan; Field, Scott; Galley, Chad; Scheel, Mark; Szilagyi, Bela; Tiglio, Manuel

    2015-04-01

    With the advanced detector era just around the corner, there is a strong need for fast and accurate models of gravitational waveforms from compact binary coalescence. Fast surrogate models can be built out of an accurate but slow waveform model with minimal to no loss in accuracy, but may require a large number of evaluations of the underlying model. This may be prohibitively expensive if the underlying is extremely slow, for example if we wish to build a surrogate for numerical relativity. We examine alternate choices to building surrogate models which allow for a more sparse set of input waveforms. Research supported in part by NSERC.

  16. CRAC2 model description

    SciTech Connect

    Ritchie, L.T.; Alpert, D.J.; Burke, R.P.; Johnson, J.D.; Ostmeyer, R.M.; Aldrich, D.C.; Blond, R.M.

    1984-03-01

    The CRAC2 computer code is a revised version of CRAC (Calculation of Reactor Accident Consequences) which was developed for the Reactor Safety Study. This document provides an overview of the CRAC2 code and a description of each of the models used. Significant improvements incorporated into CRAC2 include an improved weather sequence sampling technique, a new evacuation model, and new output capabilities. In addition, refinements have been made to the atmospheric transport and deposition model. Details of the modeling differences between CRAC2 and CRAC are emphasized in the model descriptions.

  17. Adaptive background model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Xiaochun; Xiao, Yijun; Chai, Zhi; Wang, Bangping

    2007-11-01

    An adaptive background model aiming at outdoor vehicle detection is presented in this paper. This model is an improved model of PICA (pixel intensity classification algorithm), it classifies pixels into K-distributions by color similarity, and then a hypothesis that the background pixel color appears in image sequence with a high frequency is used to evaluate all the distributions to determine which presents the current background color. As experiments show, the model presented in this paper is a robust, adaptive and flexible model, which can deal with situations like camera motions, lighting changes and so on.

  18. Complex matrix model duality

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, T. W.

    2011-04-15

    The same complex matrix model calculates both tachyon scattering for the c=1 noncritical string at the self-dual radius and certain correlation functions of operators which preserve half the supersymmetry in N=4 super-Yang-Mills theory. It is dual to another complex matrix model where the couplings of the first model are encoded in the Kontsevich-like variables of the second. The duality between the theories is mirrored by the duality of their Feynman diagrams. Analogously to the Hermitian Kontsevich-Penner model, the correlation functions of the second model can be written as sums over discrete points in subspaces of the moduli space of punctured Riemann surfaces.

  19. Modelling Farm Animal Welfare

    PubMed Central

    Collins, Lisa M.; Part, Chérie E.

    2013-01-01

    Simple Summary In this review paper we discuss the different modeling techniques that have been used in animal welfare research to date. We look at what questions they have been used to answer, the advantages and pitfalls of the methods, and how future research can best use these approaches to answer some of the most important upcoming questions in farm animal welfare. Abstract The use of models in the life sciences has greatly expanded in scope and advanced in technique in recent decades. However, the range, type and complexity of models used in farm animal welfare is comparatively poor, despite the great scope for use of modeling in this field of research. In this paper, we review the different modeling approaches used in farm animal welfare science to date, discussing the types of questions they have been used to answer, the merits and problems associated with the method, and possible future applications of each technique. We find that the most frequently published types of model used in farm animal welfare are conceptual and assessment models; two types of model that are frequently (though not exclusively) based on expert opinion. Simulation, optimization, scenario, and systems modeling approaches are rarer in animal welfare, despite being commonly used in other related fields. Finally, common issues such as a lack of quantitative data to parameterize models, and model selection and validation are discussed throughout the review, with possible solutions and alternative approaches suggested. PMID:26487411

  20. TEAMS Model Analyzer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tijidjian, Raffi P.

    2010-01-01

    The TEAMS model analyzer is a supporting tool developed to work with models created with TEAMS (Testability, Engineering, and Maintenance System), which was developed by QSI. In an effort to reduce the time spent in the manual process that each TEAMS modeler must perform in the preparation of reporting for model reviews, a new tool has been developed as an aid to models developed in TEAMS. The software allows for the viewing, reporting, and checking of TEAMS models that are checked into the TEAMS model database. The software allows the user to selectively model in a hierarchical tree outline view that displays the components, failure modes, and ports. The reporting features allow the user to quickly gather statistics about the model, and generate an input/output report pertaining to all of the components. Rules can be automatically validated against the model, with a report generated containing resulting inconsistencies. In addition to reducing manual effort, this software also provides an automated process framework for the Verification and Validation (V&V) effort that will follow development of these models. The aid of such an automated tool would have a significant impact on the V&V process.

  1. Animal models of atherosclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Kapourchali, Fatemeh Ramezani; Surendiran, Gangadaran; Chen, Li; Uitz, Elisabeth; Bahadori, Babak; Moghadasian, Mohammed H

    2014-01-01

    In this mini-review several commonly used animal models of atherosclerosis have been discussed. Among them, emphasis has been made on mice, rabbits, pigs and non-human primates. Although these animal models have played a significant role in our understanding of induction of atherosclerotic lesions, we still lack a reliable animal model for regression of the disease. Researchers have reported several genetically modified and transgenic animal models that replicate human atherosclerosis, however each of current animal models have some limitations. Among these animal models, the apolipoprotein (apo) E-knockout (KO) mice have been used extensively because they develop spontaneous atherosclerosis. Furthermore, atherosclerotic lesions developed in this model depending on experimental design may resemble humans’ stable and unstable atherosclerotic lesions. This mouse model of hypercholesterolemia and atherosclerosis has been also used to investigate the impact of oxidative stress and inflammation on atherogenesis. Low density lipoprotein (LDL)-r-KO mice are a model of human familial hypercholesterolemia. However, unlike apo E-KO mice, the LDL-r-KO mice do not develop spontaneous atherosclerosis. Both apo E-KO and LDL-r-KO mice have been employed to generate other relevant mouse models of cardiovascular disease through breeding strategies. In addition to mice, rabbits have been used extensively particularly to understand the mechanisms of cholesterol-induced atherosclerosis. The present review paper details the characteristics of animal models that are used in atherosclerosis research. PMID:24868511

  2. Calibrated Properties Model

    SciTech Connect

    T. Ghezzehej

    2004-10-04

    The purpose of this model report is to document the calibrated properties model that provides calibrated property sets for unsaturated zone (UZ) flow and transport process models (UZ models). The calibration of the property sets is performed through inverse modeling. This work followed, and was planned in, ''Technical Work Plan (TWP) for: Unsaturated Zone Flow Analysis and Model Report Integration'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169654], Sections 1.2.6 and 2.1.1.6). Direct inputs to this model report were derived from the following upstream analysis and model reports: ''Analysis of Hydrologic Properties Data'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170038]); ''Development of Numerical Grids for UZ Flow and Transport Modeling'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169855]); ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]); ''Geologic Framework Model'' (GFM2000) (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170029]). Additionally, this model report incorporates errata of the previous version and closure of the Key Technical Issue agreement TSPAI 3.26 (Section 6.2.2 and Appendix B), and it is revised for improved transparency.

  3. A model of strength

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Douglas H.; Cook, R.D.

    2013-01-01

    In her AAAS News & Notes piece "Can the Southwest manage its thirst?" (26 July, p. 362), K. Wren quotes Ajay Kalra, who advocates a particular method for predicting Colorado River streamflow "because it eschews complex physical climate models for a statistical data-driven modeling approach." A preference for data-driven models may be appropriate in this individual situation, but it is not so generally, Data-driven models often come with a warning against extrapolating beyond the range of the data used to develop the models. When the future is like the past, data-driven models can work well for prediction, but it is easy to over-model local or transient phenomena, often leading to predictive inaccuracy (1). Mechanistic models are built on established knowledge of the process that connects the response variables with the predictors, using information obtained outside of an extant data set. One may shy away from a mechanistic approach when the underlying process is judged to be too complicated, but good predictive models can be constructed with statistical components that account for ingredients missing in the mechanistic analysis. Models with sound mechanistic components are more generally applicable and robust than data-driven models.

  4. Titan atmospheric models intercomparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pernot, P.

    2008-09-01

    Several groups over the world have developed independently models of the photochemistry of Titan. The Cassini mission reveals daily that the chemical complexity is beyond our expectations e. g. observation of heavy positive and negative ions..., and the models are updated accordingly. At this stage, there is no consensus on the various input parameters, and it becomes increasingly difficult to compare outputs form different models. An ISSI team of experts of those models will be gathered shortly to proceed to an intercomparison, i.e. to assess how the models behave, given identical sets of inputs (collectively defined). Expected discrepancies will have to be elucidated and reduced. This intercomparison will also be an occasion to estimate explicitly the importance of various physicalchemical processes on model predictions versus observations. More robust and validated models are expected from this study for the interpretation of Titanrelated data.

  5. Multiscale Modeling of Recrystallization

    SciTech Connect

    Godfrey, A.W.; Holm, E.A.; Hughes, D.A.; Lesar, R.; Miodownik, M.A.

    1998-12-07

    We propose a multi length scale approach to modeling recrystallization which links a dislocation model, a cell growth model and a macroscopic model. Although this methodology and linking framework will be applied to recrystallization, it is also applicable to other types of phase transformations in bulk and layered materials. Critical processes such as the dislocation structure evolution, nucleation, the evolution of crystal orientations into a preferred texture, and grain size evolution all operate at different length scales. In this paper we focus on incorporating experimental measurements of dislocation substructures, rnisorientation measurements of dislocation boundaries, and dislocation simulations into a mesoscopic model of cell growth. In particular, we show how feeding information from the dislocation model into the cell growth model can create realistic initial microstructure.

  6. Toward Scientific Numerical Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kleb, Bil

    2007-01-01

    Ultimately, scientific numerical models need quantified output uncertainties so that modeling can evolve to better match reality. Documenting model input uncertainties and verifying that numerical models are translated into code correctly, however, are necessary first steps toward that goal. Without known input parameter uncertainties, model sensitivities are all one can determine, and without code verification, output uncertainties are simply not reliable. To address these two shortcomings, two proposals are offered: (1) an unobtrusive mechanism to document input parameter uncertainties in situ and (2) an adaptation of the Scientific Method to numerical model development and deployment. Because these two steps require changes in the computational simulation community to bear fruit, they are presented in terms of the Beckhard-Harris-Gleicher change model.

  7. Foam process models.

    SciTech Connect

    Moffat, Harry K.; Noble, David R.; Baer, Thomas A.; Adolf, Douglas Brian; Rao, Rekha Ranjana; Mondy, Lisa Ann

    2008-09-01

    In this report, we summarize our work on developing a production level foam processing computational model suitable for predicting the self-expansion of foam in complex geometries. The model is based on a finite element representation of the equations of motion, with the movement of the free surface represented using the level set method, and has been implemented in SIERRA/ARIA. An empirically based time- and temperature-dependent density model is used to encapsulate the complex physics of foam nucleation and growth in a numerically tractable model. The change in density with time is at the heart of the foam self-expansion as it creates the motion of the foam. This continuum-level model uses an homogenized description of foam, which does not include the gas explicitly. Results from the model are compared to temperature-instrumented flow visualization experiments giving the location of the foam front as a function of time for our EFAR model system.

  8. Minimal quiver standard model

    SciTech Connect

    Berenstein, David; Pinansky, Samuel

    2007-05-01

    This paper discusses the minimal quiver gauge theory embedding of the standard model that could arise from brane world type string theory constructions. It is based on the low energy effective field theory of D branes in the perturbative regime. The model differs from the standard model by the addition of one extra massive gauge boson, and contains only one additional parameter to the standard model: the mass of this new particle. The coupling of this new particle to the standard model is uniquely determined by input from the standard model and consistency conditions of perturbative string theory. We also study some aspects of the phenomenology of this model and bounds on its possible observation at the Large Hadron Collider.

  9. Modelling structured data with Probabilistic Graphical Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forbes, F.

    2016-05-01

    Most clustering and classification methods are based on the assumption that the objects to be clustered are independent. However, in more and more modern applications, data are structured in a way that makes this assumption not realistic and potentially misleading. A typical example that can be viewed as a clustering task is image segmentation where the objects are the pixels on a regular grid and depend on neighbouring pixels on this grid. Also, when data are geographically located, it is of interest to cluster data with an underlying dependence structure accounting for some spatial localisation. These spatial interactions can be naturally encoded via a graph not necessarily regular as a grid. Data sets can then be modelled via Markov random fields and mixture models (e.g. the so-called MRF and Hidden MRF). More generally, probabilistic graphical models are tools that can be used to represent and manipulate data in a structured way while modeling uncertainty. This chapter introduces the basic concepts. The two main classes of probabilistic graphical models are considered: Bayesian networks and Markov networks. The key concept of conditional independence and its link to Markov properties is presented. The main problems that can be solved with such tools are described. Some illustrations are given associated with some practical work.

  10. Ventilation Model Report

    SciTech Connect

    V. Chipman; J. Case

    2002-12-20

    The purpose of the Ventilation Model is to simulate the heat transfer processes in and around waste emplacement drifts during periods of forced ventilation. The model evaluates the effects of emplacement drift ventilation on the thermal conditions in the emplacement drifts and surrounding rock mass, and calculates the heat removal by ventilation as a measure of the viability of ventilation to delay the onset of peak repository temperature and reduce its magnitude. The heat removal by ventilation is temporally and spatially dependent, and is expressed as the fraction of heat carried away by the ventilation air compared to the fraction of heat produced by radionuclide decay. One minus the heat removal is called the wall heat fraction, or the remaining amount of heat that is transferred via conduction to the surrounding rock mass. Downstream models, such as the ''Multiscale Thermohydrologic Model'' (BSC 2001), use the wall heat fractions as outputted from the Ventilation Model to initialize their post-closure analyses. The Ventilation Model report was initially developed to analyze the effects of preclosure continuous ventilation in the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) emplacement drifts, and to provide heat removal data to support EBS design. Revision 00 of the Ventilation Model included documentation of the modeling results from the ANSYS-based heat transfer model. Revision 01 ICN 01 included the results of the unqualified software code MULTIFLUX to assess the influence of moisture on the ventilation efficiency. The purposes of Revision 02 of the Ventilation Model are: (1) To validate the conceptual model for preclosure ventilation of emplacement drifts and verify its numerical application in accordance with new procedural requirements as outlined in AP-SIII-10Q, Models (Section 7.0). (2) To satisfy technical issues posed in KTI agreement RDTME 3.14 (Reamer and Williams 2001a). Specifically to demonstrate, with respect to the ANSYS ventilation model, the adequacy of

  11. Spatial boundaries of Aerosol Robotic Network observations over the Mediterranean basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishra, A. K.; Rudich, Y.; Koren, I.

    2016-03-01

    Accurate knowledge of aerosol variability on a relatively high spatiotemporal scale is needed for better assessment of aerosol radiative effects and aerosol-climate interactions. We investigated the spatial boundaries of the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) observations over the Mediterranean basin using a statistical approach. We used 13 years (2002-2014) of aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and 15 AERONET sites around the Mediterranean basin. The gridded correlation maps show moderate to high correlations (R > 0.5) around each AERONET site up to ~200-500 km radius depending on location. Such analyses provide information on the spatial domain in which the AERONET measurements can be reliably used per site. The statistical model provides a better daytime AOD product on finer temporal resolution with higher spatial coverage as compared to using AERONET/MODIS observations separately. The findings from this study can be useful for the assimilation-based model forecasting of aerosol properties.

  12. Impact of anthropogenic aerosols on Indian summer monsoon

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Chien; Kim, Dongchul; Ekman, Annica; Barth, Mary; Rasch, Philip J.

    2009-11-05

    Using an interactive aerosol-climate model we find that absorbing anthropogenic aerosols, whether coexisting with scattering aerosols or not, can significantly affect the Indian summer monsoon system. We also show that the influence is reflected in a perturbation to the moist static energy in the sub-cloud layer, initiated as a heating by absorbing aerosols to the planetary boundary layer. The perturbation appears mostly over land, extending from just north of the Arabian Sea to northern India along the southern slope of the Tibetan Plateau. As a result, during the summer monsoon season, modeled convective precipitation experiences a clear northward shift, coincidently in agreement with observed monsoon precipitation changes in recent decades particularly during the onset season. We demonstrate that the sub-cloud layer moist static energy is a useful quantity for determining the impact of aerosols on the northward extent and to a certain degree the strength of monsoon convection.

  13. Integrated modeling, data transfers, and physical models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brookshire, D. S.; Chermak, J. M.

    2003-04-01

    Difficulties in developing precise economic policy models for water reallocation and re-regulation in various regional and transboundary settings has been exacerbated not only by climate issues but also by institutional changes reflected in the promulgation of environmental laws, changing regional populations, and an increased focus on water quality standards. As complexity of the water issues have increased, model development at a micro-policy level is necessary to capture difficult institutional nuances and represent the differing national, regional and stakeholders' viewpoints. More often than not, adequate "local" or specific micro-data are not available in all settings for modeling and policy decisions. Economic policy analysis increasingly deals with this problem through data transfers (transferring results from one study area to another) and significant progress has been made in understanding the issue of the dimensionality of data transfers. This paper explores the conceptual and empirical dimensions of data transfers in the context of integrated modeling when the transfers are not only from the behavioral, but also from the hard sciences. We begin by exploring the domain of transfer issues associated with policy analyses that directly consider uncertainty in both the behavioral and physical science settings. We then, through a stylized, hybrid, economic-engineering model of water supply and demand in the Middle Rio Grand Valley of New Mexico (USA) analyze the impacts of; (1) the relative uncertainty of data transfers methods, (2) the uncertainty of climate data and, (3) the uncertainly of population growth. These efforts are motivated by the need to address the relative importance of more accurate data both from the physical sciences as well as from demography and economics for policy analyses. We evaluate the impacts by empirically addressing (within the Middle Rio Grand model): (1) How much does the surrounding uncertainty of the benefit transfer

  14. Phyloclimatic modeling: combining phylogenetics and bioclimatic modeling.

    PubMed

    Yesson, C; Culham, A

    2006-10-01

    We investigate the impact of past climates on plant diversification by tracking the "footprint" of climate change on a phylogenetic tree. Diversity within the cosmopolitan carnivorous plant genus Drosera (Droseraceae) is focused within Mediterranean climate regions. We explore whether this diversity is temporally linked to Mediterranean-type climatic shifts of the mid-Miocene and whether climate preferences are conservative over phylogenetic timescales. Phyloclimatic modeling combines environmental niche (bioclimatic) modeling with phylogenetics in order to study evolutionary patterns in relation to climate change. We present the largest and most complete such example to date using Drosera. The bioclimatic models of extant species demonstrate clear phylogenetic patterns; this is particularly evident for the tuberous sundews from southwestern Australia (subgenus Ergaleium). We employ a method for establishing confidence intervals of node ages on a phylogeny using replicates from a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis. This chronogram shows that many clades, including subgenus Ergaleium and section Bryastrum, diversified during the establishment of the Mediterranean-type climate. Ancestral reconstructions of bioclimatic models demonstrate a pattern of preference for this climate type within these groups. Ancestral bioclimatic models are projected into palaeo-climate reconstructions for the time periods indicated by the chronogram. We present two such examples that each generate plausible estimates of ancestral lineage distribution, which are similar to their current distributions. This is the first study to attempt bioclimatic projections on evolutionary time scales. The sundews appear to have diversified in response to local climate development. Some groups are specialized for Mediterranean climates, others show wide-ranging generalism. This demonstrates that Phyloclimatic modeling could be repeated for other plant groups and is fundamental to the understanding of

  15. Modeling agriculture in the Community Land Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drewniak, B.; Song, J.; Prell, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Jacob, R.

    2012-12-01

    The potential impact of climate change on agriculture is uncertain. In addition, agriculture could influence above- and below-ground carbon storage. Development of models that represent agriculture is necessary to address these impacts. We have developed an approach to integrate agriculture representations for three crop types - maize, soybean, and spring wheat - into the coupled carbon-nitrogen version of the Community Land Model (CLM), to help address these questions. Here we present the new model, CLM-Crop, validated against observations from two AmeriFlux sites in the United States, planted with maize and soybean. Seasonal carbon fluxes compared well with field measurements. CLM-Crop yields were comparable with observations in some regions, although the generality of the crop model and its lack of technology and irrigation made direct comparison difficult. CLM-Crop was compared against the standard CLM3.5, which simulates crops as grass. The comparison showed improvement in gross primary productivity in regions where crops are the dominant vegetation cover. Crop yields and productivity were negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with precipitation. In case studies with the new crop model looking at impacts of residue management and planting date on crop yield, we found that increased residue returned to the litter pool increased crop yield, while reduced residue returns resulted in yield decreases. Using climate controls to signal planting date caused different responses in different crops. Maize and soybean had opposite reactions: when low temperature threshold resulted in early planting, maize responded with a loss of yield, but soybean yields increased. Our improvements in CLM demonstrate a new capability in the model - simulating agriculture in a realistic way, complete with fertilizer and residue management practices. Results are encouraging, with improved representation of human influences on the land surface and the potentially

  16. Loehlin's original models and model contributions.

    PubMed

    McArdle, John J

    2014-11-01

    This is a short story about John C. Loehlin who is now at the University of Texas at Austin, dealing with his original simulation models and developments, which led to his current latent variable models. This talk was initially presented at a special meeting for John before the BGA in Rhode Island, and I was very pleased to contribute. It probably goes without saying, but John helped create this important society, has been a key contributor to this journal for several decades, and he deserves a lot for this leadership. PMID:25367673

  17. Modeling local dependence in longitudinal IRT models.

    PubMed

    Olsbjerg, Maja; Christensen, Karl Bang

    2015-12-01

    Measuring change in a latent variable over time is often done using the same instrument at several time points. This can lead to dependence between responses across time points for the same person yielding within person correlations that are stronger than what can be attributed to the latent variable. Ignoring this can lead to biased estimates of changes in the latent variable. In this paper we propose a method for modeling local dependence in the longitudinal 2PL model. It is based on the concept of item splitting, and makes it possible to correctly estimate change in the latent variable. PMID:25552424

  18. Constitutive models in LAME.

    SciTech Connect

    Hammerand, Daniel Carl; Scherzinger, William Mark

    2007-09-01

    The Library of Advanced Materials for Engineering (LAME) provides a common repository for constitutive models that can be used in computational solid mechanics codes. A number of models including both hypoelastic (rate) and hyperelastic (total strain) constitutive forms have been implemented in LAME. The structure and testing of LAME is described in Scherzinger and Hammerand ([3] and [4]). The purpose of the present report is to describe the material models which have already been implemented into LAME. The descriptions are designed to give useful information to both analysts and code developers. Thus far, 33 non-ITAR/non-CRADA protected material models have been incorporated. These include everything from the simple isotropic linear elastic models to a number of elastic-plastic models for metals to models for honeycomb, foams, potting epoxies and rubber. A complete description of each model is outside the scope of the current report. Rather, the aim here is to delineate the properties, state variables, functions, and methods for each model. However, a brief description of some of the constitutive details is provided for a number of the material models. Where appropriate, the SAND reports available for each model have been cited. Many models have state variable aliases for some or all of their state variables. These alias names can be used for outputting desired quantities. The state variable aliases available for results output have been listed in this report. However, not all models use these aliases. For those models, no state variable names are listed. Nevertheless, the number of state variables employed by each model is always given. Currently, there are four possible functions for a material model. This report lists which of these four methods are employed in each material model. As far as analysts are concerned, this information is included only for the awareness purposes. The analyst can take confidence in the fact that model has been properly implemented

  19. Quantitative Rheological Model Selection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freund, Jonathan; Ewoldt, Randy

    2014-11-01

    The more parameters in a rheological the better it will reproduce available data, though this does not mean that it is necessarily a better justified model. Good fits are only part of model selection. We employ a Bayesian inference approach that quantifies model suitability by balancing closeness to data against both the number of model parameters and their a priori uncertainty. The penalty depends upon prior-to-calibration expectation of the viable range of values that model parameters might take, which we discuss as an essential aspect of the selection criterion. Models that are physically grounded are usually accompanied by tighter physical constraints on their respective parameters. The analysis reflects a basic principle: models grounded in physics can be expected to enjoy greater generality and perform better away from where they are calibrated. In contrast, purely empirical models can provide comparable fits, but the model selection framework penalizes their a priori uncertainty. We demonstrate the approach by selecting the best-justified number of modes in a Multi-mode Maxwell description of PVA-Borax. We also quantify relative merits of the Maxwell model relative to powerlaw fits and purely empirical fits for PVA-Borax, a viscoelastic liquid, and gluten.

  20. Geochemical modeling: a review

    SciTech Connect

    Jenne, E.A.

    1981-06-01

    Two general families of geochemical models presently exist. The ion speciation-solubility group of geochemical models contain submodels to first calculate a distribution of aqueous species and to secondly test the hypothesis that the water is near equilibrium with particular solid phases. These models may or may not calculate the adsorption of dissolved constituents and simulate the dissolution and precipitation (mass transfer) of solid phases. Another family of geochemical models, the reaction path models, simulates the stepwise precipitation of solid phases as a result of reacting specified amounts of water and rock. Reaction path models first perform an aqueous speciation of the dissolved constituents of the water, test solubility hypotheses, then perform the reaction path modeling. Certain improvements in the present versions of these models would enhance their value and usefulness to applications in nuclear-waste isolation, etc. Mass-transfer calculations of limited extent are certainly within the capabilities of state-of-the-art models. However, the reaction path models require an expansion of their thermodynamic data bases and systematic validation before they are generally accepted.

  1. Differential Topic Models.

    PubMed

    Chen, Changyou; Buntine, Wray; Ding, Nan; Xie, Lexing; Du, Lan

    2015-02-01

    In applications we may want to compare different document collections: they could have shared content but also different and unique aspects in particular collections. This task has been called comparative text mining or cross-collection modeling. We present a differential topic model for this application that models both topic differences and similarities. For this we use hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric models. Moreover, we found it was important to properly model power-law phenomena in topic-word distributions and thus we used the full Pitman-Yor process rather than just a Dirichlet process. Furthermore, we propose the transformed Pitman-Yor process (TPYP) to incorporate prior knowledge such as vocabulary variations in different collections into the model. To deal with the non-conjugate issue between model prior and likelihood in the TPYP, we thus propose an efficient sampling algorithm using a data augmentation technique based on the multinomial theorem. Experimental results show the model discovers interesting aspects of different collections. We also show the proposed MCMC based algorithm achieves a dramatically reduced test perplexity compared to some existing topic models. Finally, we show our model outperforms the state-of-the-art for document classification/ideology prediction on a number of text collections. PMID:26353238

  2. The Earth System Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schoeberl, Mark; Rood, Richard B.; Hildebrand, Peter; Raymond, Carol

    2003-01-01

    The Earth System Model is the natural evolution of current climate models and will be the ultimate embodiment of our geophysical understanding of the planet. These models are constructed from components - atmosphere, ocean, ice, land, chemistry, solid earth, etc. models and merged together through a coupling program which is responsible for the exchange of data from the components. Climate models and future earth system models will have standardized modules, and these standards are now being developed by the ESMF project funded by NASA. The Earth System Model will have a variety of uses beyond climate prediction. The model can be used to build climate data records making it the core of an assimilation system, and it can be used in OSSE experiments to evaluate. The computing and storage requirements for the ESM appear to be daunting. However, the Japanese ES theoretical computing capability is already within 20% of the minimum requirements needed for some 2010 climate model applications. Thus it seems very possible that a focused effort to build an Earth System Model will achieve succcss.

  3. Kp forecast models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, C.; Wing, S.; Johnson, J. R.; Jen, J.; Carr, S.; Sibeck, D. G.; Costello, K.; Freeman, J.; Balikhin, M.; Bechtold, K.; Vandegriff, J.

    2004-12-01

    Magnetically active times, e.g., Kp > 5, are notoriously difficult to predict, precisely when the predictions are crucial to the space weather users. Taking advantage of the routinely available solar wind measurements at Langrangian point (L1) and nowcast Kps, Kp forecast models based on neural networks were developed with the focus on improving the forecast for active times. In order to satisfy different needs and operational constraints, three models were developed: (1) model that inputs nowcast Kp, solar wind parameters, and predict Kp 1 hr ahead; (2) model with the same input as (1) and predict Kp 4 hr ahead; and (3) model that inputs only solar wind parameters and predict Kp 1 hr ahead (the exact prediction lead time depends on the solar wind speed and the location of the solar wind monitor). Extensive evaluations of these models and other major operational Kp forecast models show that while the new models can predict Kps more accurately for all activities, the most dramatic improvements occur for moderate and active times. The evaluations of the models over 2 solar cycles, 1975-2001, show that solar wind driven models predict Kp more accurately during solar maximum than solar minimum. This result, as well as information dynamics analysis of Kp, suggests that geospace is more dominated by internal dynamics during solar minimum than solar maximum, when it is more directly driven by external inputs, namely solar wind and IMF.

  4. Preliminary DIAL model

    SciTech Connect

    Gentry, S.; Taylor, J.; Stephenson, D.

    1994-06-01

    A unique end-to-end LIDAR sensor model has been developed supporting the concept development stage of the CALIOPE UV DIAL and UV laser-induced-fluorescence (LIF) efforts. The model focuses on preserving the temporal and spectral nature of signals as they pass through the atmosphere, are collected by the optics, detected by the sensor, and processed by the sensor electronics and algorithms. This is done by developing accurate component sub-models with realistic inputs and outputs, as well as internal noise sources and operating parameters. These sub-models are then configured using data-flow diagrams to operate together to reflect the performance of the entire DIAL system. This modeling philosophy allows the developer to have a realistic indication of the nature of signals throughout the system and to design components and processing in a realistic environment. Current component models include atmospheric absorption and scattering losses, plume absorption and scattering losses, background, telescope and optical filter models, PMT (photomultiplier tube) with realistic noise sources, amplifier operation and noise, A/D converter operation, noise and distortion, pulse averaging, and DIAL computation. Preliminary results of the model will be presented indicating the expected model operation depicting the October field test at the NTS spill test facility. Indications will be given concerning near-term upgrades to the model.

  5. Turbulence modeling and experiments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shabbir, Aamir

    1992-01-01

    The best way of verifying turbulence is to do a direct comparison between the various terms and their models. The success of this approach depends upon the availability of the data for the exact correlations (both experimental and DNS). The other approach involves numerically solving the differential equations and then comparing the results with the data. The results of such a computation will depend upon the accuracy of all the modeled terms and constants. Because of this it is sometimes difficult to find the cause of a poor performance by a model. However, such a calculation is still meaningful in other ways as it shows how a complete Reynolds stress model performs. Thirteen homogeneous flows are numerically computed using the second order closure models. We concentrate only on those models which use a linear (or quasi-linear) model for the rapid term. This, therefore, includes the Launder, Reece and Rodi (LRR) model; the isotropization of production (IP) model; and the Speziale, Sarkar, and Gatski (SSG) model. Which of the three models performs better is examined along with what are their weaknesses, if any. The other work reported deal with the experimental balances of the second moment equations for a buoyant plume. Despite the tremendous amount of activity toward the second order closure modeling of turbulence, very little experimental information is available about the budgets of the second moment equations. Part of the problem stems from our inability to measure the pressure correlations. However, if everything else appearing in these equations is known from the experiment, pressure correlations can be obtained as the closing terms. This is the closest we can come to in obtaining these terms from experiment, and despite the measurement errors which might be present in such balances, the resulting information will be extremely useful for the turbulence modelers. The purpose of this part of the work was to provide such balances of the Reynolds stress and heat

  6. [Mathematical models of hysteresis

    SciTech Connect

    Mayergoyz, I.D.

    1991-01-01

    The research described in this proposal is currently being supported by the US Department of Energy under the contract Mathematical Models of Hysteresis''. Thus, before discussing the proposed research in detail, it is worthwhile to describe and summarize the main results achieved in the course of our work under the above contract. Our ongoing research has largely been focused on the development of mathematical models of hysteretic nonlinearities with nonlocal memories''. The distinct feature of these nonlinearities is that their current states depend on past histories of input variations. It turns out that memories of hysteretic nonlinearities are quite selective. Indeed, experiments show that only some past input extrema leave their marks upon future states of hysteretic nonlinearities. Thus special mathematical tools are needed in order to describe nonlocal selective memories of hysteretic nonlinearities. Our research has been primarily concerned with Preisach-type models of hysteresis. All these models have a common generic feature; they are constructed as superpositions of simplest hysteretic nonlinearities-rectangular loops. Our study has by and large been centered around the following topics: various generalizations and extensions of the classical Preisach model, finding of necessary and sufficient conditions for the representation of actual hysteretic nonlinearities by various Preisach type models, solution of identification problems for these models, numerical implementation and experimental testing of Preisach type models. Although the study of Preisach type models has constituted the main direction of the research, some effort has also been made to establish some interesting connections between these models and such topics as: the critical state model for superconducting hysteresis, the classical Stoner-Wohlfarth model of vector magnetic hysteresis, thermal activation type models for viscosity, magnetostrictive hysteresis and neural networks.

  7. A Rasch Hierarchical Measurement Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maier, Kimberly S.

    This paper describes a model that integrates an item response theory (IRT) Rasch model and a hierarchical linear model and presents a method of estimating model parameter values that does not rely on large-sample theory and normal approximations. The model resulting from the integration of a hierarchical linear model and the Rasch model allows one…

  8. Generalized Multilevel Structural Equation Modeling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia; Skrondal, Anders; Pickles, Andrew

    2004-01-01

    A unifying framework for generalized multilevel structural equation modeling is introduced. The models in the framework, called generalized linear latent and mixed models (GLLAMM), combine features of generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) and structural equation models (SEM) and consist of a response model and a structural model for the latent…

  9. Modeling Imports in a Keynesian Expenditure Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Findlay, David W.

    2010-01-01

    The author discusses several issues that instructors of introductory macroeconomics courses should consider when introducing imports in the Keynesian expenditure model. The analysis suggests that the specification of the import function should partially, if not completely, be the result of a simple discussion about the spending and import…

  10. Probabilistic Mesomechanical Fatigue Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tryon, Robert G.

    1997-01-01

    A probabilistic mesomechanical fatigue life model is proposed to link the microstructural material heterogeneities to the statistical scatter in the macrostructural response. The macrostructure is modeled as an ensemble of microelements. Cracks nucleation within the microelements and grow from the microelements to final fracture. Variations of the microelement properties are defined using statistical parameters. A micromechanical slip band decohesion model is used to determine the crack nucleation life and size. A crack tip opening displacement model is used to determine the small crack growth life and size. Paris law is used to determine the long crack growth life. The models are combined in a Monte Carlo simulation to determine the statistical distribution of total fatigue life for the macrostructure. The modeled response is compared to trends in experimental observations from the literature.

  11. Animal models of fibromyalgia

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Animal models of disease states are valuable tools for developing new treatments and investigating underlying mechanisms. They should mimic the symptoms and pathology of the disease and importantly be predictive of effective treatments. Fibromyalgia is characterized by chronic widespread pain with associated co-morbid symptoms that include fatigue, depression, anxiety and sleep dysfunction. In this review, we present different animal models that mimic the signs and symptoms of fibromyalgia. These models are induced by a wide variety of methods that include repeated muscle insults, depletion of biogenic amines, and stress. All potential models produce widespread and long-lasting hyperalgesia without overt peripheral tissue damage and thus mimic the clinical presentation of fibromyalgia. We describe the methods for induction of the model, pathophysiological mechanisms for each model, and treatment profiles. PMID:24314231

  12. Multiscale Cancer Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Macklin, Paul; Cristini, Vittorio

    2013-01-01

    Simulating cancer behavior across multiple biological scales in space and time, i.e., multiscale cancer modeling, is increasingly being recognized as a powerful tool to refine hypotheses, focus experiments, and enable more accurate predictions. A growing number of examples illustrate the value of this approach in providing quantitative insight on the initiation, progression, and treatment of cancer. In this review, we introduce the most recent and important multiscale cancer modeling works that have successfully established a mechanistic link between different biological scales. Biophysical, biochemical, and biomechanical factors are considered in these models. We also discuss innovative, cutting-edge modeling methods that are moving predictive multiscale cancer modeling toward clinical application. Furthermore, because the development of multiscale cancer models requires a new level of collaboration among scientists from a variety of fields such as biology, medicine, physics, mathematics, engineering, and computer science, an innovative Web-based infrastructure is needed to support this growing community. PMID:21529163

  13. Outside users payload model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    The outside users payload model which is a continuation of documents and replaces and supersedes the July 1984 edition is presented. The time period covered by this model is 1985 through 2000. The following sections are included: (1) definition of the scope of the model; (2) discussion of the methodology used; (3) overview of total demand; (4) summary of the estimated market segmentation by launch vehicle; (5) summary of the estimated market segmentation by user type; (6) details of the STS market forecast; (7) summary of transponder trends; (8) model overview by mission category; and (9) detailed mission models. All known non-NASA, non-DOD reimbursable payloads forecast to be flown by non-Soviet-block countries are included in this model with the exception of Spacelab payloads and small self contained payloads. Certain DOD-sponsored or cosponsored payloads are included if they are reimbursable launches.

  14. Teaching macromolecular modeling.

    PubMed

    Harvey, S C; Tan, R K

    1992-12-01

    Training newcomers to the field of macromolecular modeling is as difficult as is training beginners in x-ray crystallography, nuclear magnetic resonance, or other methods in structural biology. In one or two lectures, the most that can be conveyed is a general sense of the relationship between modeling and other structural methods. If a full semester is available, then students can be taught how molecular structures are built, manipulated, refined, and analyzed on a computer. Here we describe a one-semester modeling course that combines lectures, discussions, and a laboratory using a commercial modeling package. In the laboratory, students carry out prescribed exercises that are coordinated to the lectures, and they complete a term project on a modeling problem of their choice. The goal is to give students an understanding of what kinds of problems can be attacked by molecular modeling methods and which problems are beyond the current capabilities of those methods. PMID:1489919

  15. Extended frequency turbofan model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mason, J. R.; Park, J. W.; Jaekel, R. F.

    1980-01-01

    The fan model was developed using two dimensional modeling techniques to add dynamic radial coupling between the core stream and the bypass stream of the fan. When incorporated into a complete TF-30 engine simulation, the fan model greatly improved compression system frequency response to planar inlet pressure disturbances up to 100 Hz. The improved simulation also matched engine stability limits at 15 Hz, whereas the one dimensional fan model required twice the inlet pressure amplitude to stall the simulation. With verification of the two dimensional fan model, this program formulated a high frequency F-100(3) engine simulation using row by row compression system characteristics. In addition to the F-100(3) remote splitter fan, the program modified the model fan characteristics to simulate a proximate splitter version of the F-100(3) engine.

  16. Cloud model bat algorithm.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Yongquan; Xie, Jian; Li, Liangliang; Ma, Mingzhi

    2014-01-01

    Bat algorithm (BA) is a novel stochastic global optimization algorithm. Cloud model is an effective tool in transforming between qualitative concepts and their quantitative representation. Based on the bat echolocation mechanism and excellent characteristics of cloud model on uncertainty knowledge representation, a new cloud model bat algorithm (CBA) is proposed. This paper focuses on remodeling echolocation model based on living and preying characteristics of bats, utilizing the transformation theory of cloud model to depict the qualitative concept: "bats approach their prey." Furthermore, Lévy flight mode and population information communication mechanism of bats are introduced to balance the advantage between exploration and exploitation. The simulation results show that the cloud model bat algorithm has good performance on functions optimization. PMID:24967425

  17. Energy balance climate models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    North, G. R.; Cahalan, R. F.; Coakley, J. A., Jr.

    1981-01-01

    An introductory survey of the global energy balance climate models is presented with an emphasis on analytical results. A sequence of increasingly complicated models involving ice cap and radiative feedback processes are solved, and the solutions and parameter sensitivities are studied. The model parameterizations are examined critically in light of many current uncertainties. A simple seasonal model is used to study the effects of changes in orbital elements on the temperature field. A linear stability theorem and a complete nonlinear stability analysis for the models are developed. Analytical solutions are also obtained for the linearized models driven by stochastic forcing elements. In this context the relation between natural fluctuation statistics and climate sensitivity is stressed.

  18. Models for poloidal divertors

    SciTech Connect

    Post, D.E.; Heifetz, D.; Petravic, M.

    1982-07-01

    Recent progress in models for poloidal divertors has both helped to explain current divertor experiments and contributed significantly to design efforts for future large tokamak (INTOR, etc.) divertor systems. These models range in sophistication from zero-dimensional treatments and dimensional analysis to two-dimensional models for plasma and neutral particle transport which include a wide variety of atomic and molecular processes as well as detailed treatments of the plasma-wall interaction. This paper presents a brief review of some of these models, describing the physics and approximations involved in each model. We discuss the wide variety of physics necessary for a comprehensive description of poloidal divertors. To illustrate the progress in models for poloidal divertors, we discuss some of our recent work as typical examples of the kinds of calculations being done.

  19. Load Model Data Tool

    SciTech Connect

    David Chassin, Pavel Etingov

    2013-04-30

    The LMDT software automates the process of the load composite model data preparation in the format supported by the major power system software vendors (GE and Siemens). Proper representation of the load composite model in power system dynamic analysis is very important. Software tools for power system simulation like GE PSLF and Siemens PSSE already include algorithms for the load composite modeling. However, these tools require that the input information on composite load to be provided in custom formats. Preparation of this data is time consuming and requires multiple manual operations. The LMDT software enables to automate this process. Software is designed to generate composite load model data. It uses the default load composition data, motor information, and bus information as an input. Software processes the input information and produces load composition model. Generated model can be stored in .dyd format supported by GE PSLF package or .dyr format supported by Siemens PSSE package.

  20. Load Model Data Tool

    2013-04-30

    The LMDT software automates the process of the load composite model data preparation in the format supported by the major power system software vendors (GE and Siemens). Proper representation of the load composite model in power system dynamic analysis is very important. Software tools for power system simulation like GE PSLF and Siemens PSSE already include algorithms for the load composite modeling. However, these tools require that the input information on composite load to bemore » provided in custom formats. Preparation of this data is time consuming and requires multiple manual operations. The LMDT software enables to automate this process. Software is designed to generate composite load model data. It uses the default load composition data, motor information, and bus information as an input. Software processes the input information and produces load composition model. Generated model can be stored in .dyd format supported by GE PSLF package or .dyr format supported by Siemens PSSE package.« less

  1. Liftoff Model for MELCOR.

    SciTech Connect

    Young, Michael F.

    2015-07-01

    Aerosol particles that deposit on surfaces may be subsequently resuspended by air flowing over the surface. A review of models for this liftoff process is presented and compared to available data. Based on this review, a model that agrees with existing data and is readily computed is presented for incorporation into a system level code such as MELCOR. Liftoff Model for MELCOR July 2015 4 This page is intentionally blank

  2. Invariant turbulence models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bihlo, Alexander; Dos Santos Cardoso-Bihlo, Elsa Maria; Nave, Jean-Christophe; Popovych, Roman

    2012-11-01

    Various subgrid-scale closure models break the invariance of the Euler or Navier-Stokes equations and thus violate the geometric structure of these equations. A method is shown which allows one to systematically derive invariant turbulence models starting from non-invariant turbulence models and thus to correct artificial symmetry-breaking. The method is illustrated by finding invariant hyperdiffusion schemes to be applied in the two-dimensional turbulence problem.

  3. Modelling Pediatric Kinematics

    PubMed Central

    van Ratingen, M.R.; Wismans, J.

    1998-01-01

    In the field of pediatric biomechanics, crash dummy and numerical model development suffers from too limited human subject data to directly establish response and injury values. In order to create child crash dummies and numerical models it is necessary to combine the results from real world accident and reconstruction data, scaled adult data and data from animal testing with limited child volunteer data. This paper presents the functional and biomechanical targets for child crash dummies and numerical models.

  4. Acid rain: Mesoscale model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hsu, H. M.

    1980-01-01

    A mesoscale numerical model of the Florida peninsula was formulated and applied to a dry, neutral atmosphere. The prospective use of the STAR-100 computer for the submesoscale model is discussed. The numerical model presented is tested under synoptically undisturbed conditions. Two cases, differing only in the direction of the prevailing geostrophic wind, are examined: a prevailing southwest wind and a prevailing southeast wind, both 6 m/sec at all levels initially.

  5. AREST model description

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, D.W.; McGrail, B.P.

    1993-11-01

    The Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management and the Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corporation of Japan (PNC) have supported the development of the Analytical Repository Source-Term (AREST) at Pacific Northwest Laboratory. AREST is a computer model developed to evaluate radionuclide release from an underground geologic repository. The AREST code can be used to calculate/estimate the amount and rate of each radionuclide that is released from the engineered barrier system (EBS) of the repository. The EBS is the man-made or disrupted area of the repository. AREST was designed as a system-level models to simulate the behavior of the total repository by combining process-level models for the release from an individual waste package or container. AREST contains primarily analytical models for calculating the release/transport of radionuclides to the lost rock that surrounds each waste package. Analytical models were used because of the small computational overhead that allows all the input parameters to be derived from a statistical distribution. Recently, a one-dimensional numerical model was also incorporated into AREST, to allow for more detailed modeling of the transport process with arbitrary length decay chains. The next step in modeling the EBS, is to develop a model that couples the probabilistic capabilities of AREST with a more detailed process model. This model will need to look at the reactive coupling of the processes that are involved with the release process. Such coupling would include: (1) the dissolution of the waste form, (2) the geochemical modeling of the groundwater, (3) the corrosion of the container overpacking, and (4) the backfill material, just to name a few. Several of these coupled processes are already incorporated in the current version of AREST.

  6. Global Atmospheric Aerosol Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hendricks, Johannes; Aquila, Valentina; Righi, Mattia

    2012-01-01

    Global aerosol models are used to study the distribution and properties of atmospheric aerosol particles as well as their effects on clouds, atmospheric chemistry, radiation, and climate. The present article provides an overview of the basic concepts of global atmospheric aerosol modeling and shows some examples from a global aerosol simulation. Particular emphasis is placed on the simulation of aerosol particles and their effects within global climate models.

  7. Computer Models of Proteins

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    Dr. Marc Pusey (seated) and Dr. Craig Kundrot use computers to analyze x-ray maps and generate three-dimensional models of protein structures. With this information, scientists at Marshall Space Flight Center can learn how proteins are made and how they work. The computer screen depicts a proten structure as a ball-and-stick model. Other models depict the actual volume occupied by the atoms, or the ribbon-like structures that are crucial to a protein's function.

  8. Rat Endovascular Perforation Model

    PubMed Central

    Sehba, Fatima A.

    2014-01-01

    Experimental animal models of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) have provided a wealth of information on the mechanisms of brain injury. The Rat endovascular perforation model (EVP) replicates the early pathophysiology of SAH and hence is frequently used to study early brain injury following SAH. This paper presents a brief review of historical development of the EVP model, details the technique used to create SAH and considerations necessary to overcome technical challenges. PMID:25213427

  9. The XXC models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maassarani, Z.

    1998-07-01

    A class of recently introduced multi-states XX models is generalized to include a deformation parameter. This corresponds to an additional nearest-neighbor CC interaction in the defining quadratic Hamiltonian. Complete integrability of the one-dimensional models is shown in the context of the quantum inverse scattering method. The new R-matrix is derived. The diagonalization of the XXC models is carried out using the algebraic Bethe ansatz.

  10. HOMER® Micropower Optimization Model

    SciTech Connect

    Lilienthal, P.

    2005-01-01

    NREL has developed the HOMER micropower optimization model. The model can analyze all of the available small power technologies individually and in hybrid configurations to identify least-cost solutions to energy requirements. This capability is valuable to a diverse set of energy professionals and applications. NREL has actively supported its growing user base and developed training programs around the model. These activities are helping to grow the global market for solar technologies.

  11. Solid model design simplification

    SciTech Connect

    Ames, A.L.; Rivera, J.J.; Webb, A.J.; Hensinger, D.M.

    1997-12-01

    This paper documents an investigation of approaches to improving the quality of Pro/Engineer-created solid model data for use by downstream applications. The investigation identified a number of sources of problems caused by deficiencies in Pro/Engineer`s geometric engine, and developed prototype software capable of detecting many of these problems and guiding users towards simplified, useable models. The prototype software was tested using Sandia production solid models, and provided significant leverage in attacking the simplification problem.

  12. Conceptual IT model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnaoudova, Kristina; Stanchev, Peter

    2015-11-01

    The business processes are the key asset for every organization. The design of the business process models is the foremost concern and target among an organization's functions. Business processes and their proper management are intensely dependent on the performance of software applications and technology solutions. The paper is attempt for definition of new Conceptual model of IT service provider, it could be examined as IT focused Enterprise model, part of Enterprise Architecture (EA) school.

  13. Modeling Frequency Comb Sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Feng; Yuan, Jinhui; Kang, Zhe; Li, Qian; Wai, P. K. A.

    2016-06-01

    Frequency comb sources have revolutionized metrology and spectroscopy and found applications in many fields. Stable, low-cost, high-quality frequency comb sources are important to these applications. Modeling of the frequency comb sources will help the understanding of the operation mechanism and optimization of the design of such sources. In this paper,we review the theoretical models used and recent progress of the modeling of frequency comb sources.

  14. The Integrated Medical Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kerstman, Eric; Minard, Charles; Saile, Lynn; Freiere deCarvalho, Mary; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Iyengar, Sriram; Johnson-Throop, Kathy; Baumann, David

    2010-01-01

    The goals of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) are to develop an integrated, quantified, evidence-based decision support tool useful to crew health and mission planners and to help align science, technology, and operational activities intended to optimize crew health, safety, and mission success. Presentation slides address scope and approach, beneficiaries of IMM capabilities, history, risk components, conceptual models, development steps, and the evidence base. Space adaptation syndrome is used to demonstrate the model's capabilities.

  15. Atmospheric prediction model survey

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wellck, R. E.

    1976-01-01

    As part of the SEASAT Satellite program of NASA, a survey of representative primitive equation atmospheric prediction models that exist in the world today was written for the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Seventeen models developed by eleven different operational and research centers throughout the world are included in the survey. The surveys are tutorial in nature describing the features of the various models in a systematic manner.

  16. Multidimensional reactor kinetics modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Diamond, D.J.

    1996-11-01

    There is general agreement that for many light water reactor transient calculations, it is-necessary to use a multidimensional neutron kinetics model coupled to a thermal-hydraulics model for satisfactory results. These calculations are needed for a variety of applications for licensing safety analysis, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), operational support, and training. The latter three applications have always required best-estimate models, but in the past applications for licensing could be satisfied with relatively simple models. By using more sophisticated best-estimate models, the consequences of these calculations are better understood, and the potential for gaining relief from restrictive operating limits increases. Hence, for all of the aforementioned applications, it is important to have the ability to do best-estimate calculations with multidimensional neutron kinetics models. coupled to sophisticated thermal-hydraulic models. Specifically, this paper reviews the status of multidimensional neutron kinetics modeling which would be used in conjunction with thermal-hydraulic models to do core dynamics calculations, either coupled to a complete NSSS representation or in isolation. In addition, the paper makes recommendations as to what should be the state-of-the-art for the next ten years. The review is an update to a previous review of the status as of ten years ago. The general requirements for a core dynamics code and the modeling available for such a code, discussed in that review, are still applicable. The emphasis in the current review is on the neutron kinetics assuming that the necessary thermal-hydraulic capability exists. In addition to discussing the basic neutron kinetics, discussion is given of related modeling (other than thermal- hydraulics). The capabilities and limitations of current computer codes are presented to understand the state-of-the-art and to help clarify the future direction of model development in this area.

  17. Photovoltaic array performance model.

    SciTech Connect

    Kratochvil, Jay A.; Boyson, William Earl; King, David L.

    2004-08-01

    This document summarizes the equations and applications associated with the photovoltaic array performance model developed at Sandia National Laboratories over the last twelve years. Electrical, thermal, and optical characteristics for photovoltaic modules are included in the model, and the model is designed to use hourly solar resource and meteorological data. The versatility and accuracy of the model has been validated for flat-plate modules (all technologies) and for concentrator modules, as well as for large arrays of modules. Applications include system design and sizing, 'translation' of field performance measurements to standard reporting conditions, system performance optimization, and real-time comparison of measured versus expected system performance.

  18. Coronal Magnetic Field Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiegelmann, Thomas; Petrie, Gordon J. D.; Riley, Pete

    2015-07-01

    Coronal magnetic field models use photospheric field measurements as boundary condition to model the solar corona. We review in this paper the most common model assumptions, starting from MHD-models, magnetohydrostatics, force-free and finally potential field models. Each model in this list is somewhat less complex than the previous one and makes more restrictive assumptions by neglecting physical effects. The magnetohydrostatic approach neglects time-dependent phenomena and plasma flows, the force-free approach neglects additionally the gradient of the plasma pressure and the gravity force. This leads to the assumption of a vanishing Lorentz force and electric currents are parallel (or anti-parallel) to the magnetic field lines. Finally, the potential field approach neglects also these currents. We outline the main assumptions, benefits and limitations of these models both from a theoretical (how realistic are the models?) and a practical viewpoint (which computer resources to we need?). Finally we address the important problem of noisy and inconsistent photospheric boundary conditions and the possibility of using chromospheric and coronal observations to improve the models.

  19. Computer Modeling and Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Pronskikh, V. S.

    2014-05-09

    Verification and validation of computer codes and models used in simulation are two aspects of the scientific practice of high importance and have recently been discussed by philosophers of science. While verification is predominantly associated with the correctness of the way a model is represented by a computer code or algorithm, validation more often refers to model’s relation to the real world and its intended use. It has been argued that because complex simulations are generally not transparent to a practitioner, the Duhem problem can arise for verification and validation due to their entanglement; such an entanglement makes it impossible to distinguish whether a coding error or model’s general inadequacy to its target should be blamed in the case of the model failure. I argue that in order to disentangle verification and validation, a clear distinction between computer modeling (construction of mathematical computer models of elementary processes) and simulation (construction of models of composite objects and processes by means of numerical experimenting with them) needs to be made. Holding on to that distinction, I propose to relate verification (based on theoretical strategies such as inferences) to modeling and validation, which shares the common epistemology with experimentation, to simulation. To explain reasons of their intermittent entanglement I propose a weberian ideal-typical model of modeling and simulation as roles in practice. I suggest an approach to alleviate the Duhem problem for verification and validation generally applicable in practice and based on differences in epistemic strategies and scopes

  20. Multifamily Envelope Leakage Model

    SciTech Connect

    Faakye, O.; Griffiths, D.

    2015-05-01

    The objective of the 2013 research project was to develop the model for predicting fully guarded test results (FGT), using unguarded test data and specific building features of apartment units. The model developed has a coefficient of determination R2 value of 0.53 with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.13. Both statistical metrics indicate that the model is relatively strong. When tested against data that was not included in the development of the model, prediction accuracy was within 19%, which is reasonable given that seasonal differences in blower door measurements can vary by as much as 25%.

  1. Model Driven Engineering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaševic, Dragan; Djuric, Dragan; Devedžic, Vladan

    A relevant initiative from the software engineering community called Model Driven Engineering (MDE) is being developed in parallel with the Semantic Web (Mellor et al. 2003a). The MDE approach to software development suggests that one should first develop a model of the system under study, which is then transformed into the real thing (i.e., an executable software entity). The most important research initiative in this area is the Model Driven Architecture (MDA), which is Model Driven Architecture being developed under the umbrella of the Object Management Group (OMG). This chapter describes the basic concepts of this software engineering effort.

  2. Modeling plant morphogenesis.

    PubMed

    Prusinkiewicz, Przemyslaw; Rolland-Lagan, Anne-Gaëlle

    2006-02-01

    Applications of computational techniques to developmental plant biology include the processing of experimental data and the construction of simulation models. Substantial progress has been made in these areas over the past few years. Complex image-processing techniques are used to integrate sequences of two-dimensional images into three-dimensional descriptions of development over time and to extract useful quantitative traits. Large amounts of data are integrated into empirical models of developing plant organs and entire plants. Mechanistic models link molecular-level phenomena with the resulting phenotypes. Several models shed light on the possible properties of active auxin transport and its role in plant morphogenesis. PMID:16376602

  3. Particle bed reactor modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sapyta, Joe; Reid, Hank; Walton, Lew

    1993-01-01

    The topics are presented in viewgraph form and include the following: particle bed reactor (PBR) core cross section; PBR bleed cycle; fuel and moderator flow paths; PBR modeling requirements; characteristics of PBR and nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) modeling; challenges for PBR and NTP modeling; thermal hydraulic computer codes; capabilities for PBR/reactor application; thermal/hydralic codes; limitations; physical correlations; comparison of predicted friction factor and experimental data; frit pressure drop testing; cold frit mask factor; decay heat flow rate; startup transient simulation; and philosophy of systems modeling.

  4. Theory of Chemical Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kühn, Michael

    In order to deal with the complexity of natural systems simplified models are employed to illustrate the principal and regulatory factors controlling a chemical system. Following the aphorism of Albert Einstein: Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler, models need not to be completely realistic to be useful (Stumm and Morgan 1996), but need to meet a successful balance between realism and practicality. Properly constructed, a model is neither too simplified that it is unrealistic nor too detailed that it cannot be readily evaluated and applied to the problem of interest (Bethke 1996). The results of a model have to be at least partially observable or experimentally verifiable (Zhu and Anderson 2002). Geochemical modeling theories are presented here in a sequence of increasing complexity from geochemical equilibrium models to kinetic, reaction path, and finally coupled transport and reaction models. The description is far from complete but provides the needs for the set up of reactive transport models of hydrothermal systems as done within subsequent chapters. Extensive reviews of geochemical models in general can be found in the literature (Appelo and Postma 1999, Bethke 1996, Melchior and Bassett 1990, Nordstrom and Ball 1984, Paschke and van der Heijde 1996).

  5. Lightning return stroke models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lin, Y. T.; Uman, M. A.; Standler, R. B.

    1980-01-01

    We test the two most commonly used lightning return stroke models, Bruce-Golde and transmission line, against subsequent stroke electric and magnetic field wave forms measured simultaneously at near and distant stations and show that these models are inadequate to describe the experimental data. We then propose a new return stroke model that is physically plausible and that yields good approximations to the measured two-station fields. Using the new model, we derive return stroke charge and current statistics for about 100 subsequent strokes.

  6. Model Error Budgets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Briggs, Hugh C.

    2008-01-01

    An error budget is a commonly used tool in design of complex aerospace systems. It represents system performance requirements in terms of allowable errors and flows these down through a hierarchical structure to lower assemblies and components. The requirements may simply be 'allocated' based upon heuristics or experience, or they may be designed through use of physics-based models. This paper presents a basis for developing an error budget for models of the system, as opposed to the system itself. The need for model error budgets arises when system models are a principle design agent as is increasingly more common for poorly testable high performance space systems.

  7. DISJUNCTIVE NORMAL SHAPE MODELS

    PubMed Central

    Ramesh, Nisha; Mesadi, Fitsum; Cetin, Mujdat; Tasdizen, Tolga

    2016-01-01

    A novel implicit parametric shape model is proposed for segmentation and analysis of medical images. Functions representing the shape of an object can be approximated as a union of N polytopes. Each polytope is obtained by the intersection of M half-spaces. The shape function can be approximated as a disjunction of conjunctions, using the disjunctive normal form. The shape model is initialized using seed points defined by the user. We define a cost function based on the Chan-Vese energy functional. The model is differentiable, hence, gradient based optimization algorithms are used to find the model parameters. PMID:27403233

  8. Wind power prediction models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

    1976-01-01

    Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

  9. Kp forecast models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wing, S.; Johnson, J. R.; Jen, J.; Meng, C.-I.; Sibeck, D. G.; Bechtold, K.; Freeman, J.; Costello, K.; Balikhin, M.; Takahashi, K.

    2005-04-01

    Magnetically active times, e.g., Kp > 5, are notoriously difficult to predict, precisely the times when such predictions are crucial to the space weather users. Taking advantage of the routinely available solar wind measurements at Langrangian point (L1) and nowcast Kps, Kp forecast models based on neural networks were developed with the focus on improving the forecast for active times. To satisfy different needs and operational constraints, three models were developed: (1) a model that inputs nowcast Kp and solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hour ahead; (2) a model with the same input as model 1 and predicts Kp 4 hour ahead; and (3) a model that inputs only solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hour ahead (the exact prediction lead time depends on the solar wind speed and the location of the solar wind monitor). Extensive evaluations of these models and other major operational Kp forecast models show that while the new models can predict Kps more accurately for all activities, the most dramatic improvements occur for moderate and active times. Information dynamics analysis of Kp suggests that geospace is more dominated by internal dynamics near solar minimum than near solar maximum, when it is more directly driven by external inputs, namely solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF).

  10. Kp forecast models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wing, S.; Johnson, J. R.; Meng, C.; Takahashi, K.

    2005-05-01

    Magnetically active times, e.g., Kp > 5, are notoriously difficult to predict, precisely the times when such predictions are crucial to the space weather users. Taking advantage of the routinely available solar wind measurements at Langrangian point (L1) and nowcast Kps, Kp forecast models based on neural networks were developed with the focus on improving the forecast for active times. To satisfy different needs and operational constraints, three models were developed: (1) a model that inputs nowcast Kp and solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hr ahead; (2) a model with the same input as model 1 and predicts Kp 4 hr ahead; and (3) a model that inputs only solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hr ahead (the exact prediction lead time depends on the solar wind speed and the location of the solar wind monitor.) Extensive evaluations of these models and other major operational Kp forecast models show that, while the new models can predict Kps more accurately for all activities, the most dramatic improvements occur for moderate and active times. Information dynamics analysis of Kp, suggests that geospace is more dominated by internal dynamics near solar minimum than near solar maximum, when it is more directly driven by external inputs, namely solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF).

  11. Models of Reality.

    SciTech Connect

    Brown-VanHoozer, S. A.

    1999-06-02

    Conscious awareness of our environment is based on a feedback loop comprised of sensory input transmitted to the central nervous system leading to construction of our ''model of the world,'' (Lewis et al, 1982). We then assimilate the neurological model at the unconscious level into information we can later consciously consider useful in identifying belief systems and behaviors for designing diverse systems. Thus, we can avoid potential problems based on our open-to-error perceived reality of the world. By understanding how our model of reality is organized, we allow ourselves to transcend content and develop insight into how effective choices and belief systems are generated through sensory derived processes. These are the processes which provide the designer the ability to meta model (build a model of a model) the user; consequently, matching the mental model of the user with that of the designer's and, coincidentally, forming rapport between the two participants. The information shared between the participants is neither assumed nor generalized, it is closer to equivocal; thus minimizing error through a sharing of each other's model of reality. How to identify individual mental mechanisms or processes, how to organize the individual strategies of these mechanisms into useful patterns, and to formulate these into models for success and knowledge based outcomes is the subject of the discussion that follows.

  12. The LISA Integrated Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Merkowitz, Stephen M.

    2002-01-01

    The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) space mission has unique needs that argue for an aggressive modeling effort. These models ultimately need to forecast and interrelate the behavior of the science input, structure, optics, control systems, and many other factors that affect the performance of the flight hardware. In addition, many components of these integrated models will also be used separately for the evaluation and investigation of design choices, technology development and integration and test. This article presents an overview of the LISA integrated modeling effort.

  13. Radiation Environment Modeling for Spacecraft Design: New Model Developments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barth, Janet; Xapsos, Mike; Lauenstein, Jean-Marie; Ladbury, Ray

    2006-01-01

    A viewgraph presentation on various new space radiation environment models for spacecraft design is described. The topics include: 1) The Space Radiatio Environment; 2) Effects of Space Environments on Systems; 3) Space Radiatio Environment Model Use During Space Mission Development and Operations; 4) Space Radiation Hazards for Humans; 5) "Standard" Space Radiation Environment Models; 6) Concerns about Standard Models; 7) Inadequacies of Current Models; 8) Development of New Models; 9) New Model Developments: Proton Belt Models; 10) Coverage of New Proton Models; 11) Comparison of TPM-1, PSB97, AP-8; 12) New Model Developments: Electron Belt Models; 13) Coverage of New Electron Models; 14) Comparison of "Worst Case" POLE, CRESELE, and FLUMIC Models with the AE-8 Model; 15) New Model Developments: Galactic Cosmic Ray Model; 16) Comparison of NASA, MSU, CIT Models with ACE Instrument Data; 17) New Model Developmemts: Solar Proton Model; 18) Comparison of ESP, JPL91, KIng/Stassinopoulos, and PSYCHIC Models; 19) New Model Developments: Solar Heavy Ion Model; 20) Comparison of CREME96 to CREDO Measurements During 2000 and 2002; 21) PSYCHIC Heavy ion Model; 22) Model Standardization; 23) Working Group Meeting on New Standard Radiation Belt and Space Plasma Models; and 24) Summary.

  14. Groundwater Model Validation

    SciTech Connect

    Ahmed E. Hassan

    2006-01-24

    Models have an inherent uncertainty. The difficulty in fully characterizing the subsurface environment makes uncertainty an integral component of groundwater flow and transport models, which dictates the need for continuous monitoring and improvement. Building and sustaining confidence in closure decisions and monitoring networks based on models of subsurface conditions require developing confidence in the models through an iterative process. The definition of model validation is postulated as a confidence building and long-term iterative process (Hassan, 2004a). Model validation should be viewed as a process not an end result. Following Hassan (2004b), an approach is proposed for the validation process of stochastic groundwater models. The approach is briefly summarized herein and detailed analyses of acceptance criteria for stochastic realizations and of using validation data to reduce input parameter uncertainty are presented and applied to two case studies. During the validation process for stochastic models, a question arises as to the sufficiency of the number of acceptable model realizations (in terms of conformity with validation data). Using a hierarchical approach to make this determination is proposed. This approach is based on computing five measures or metrics and following a decision tree to determine if a sufficient number of realizations attain satisfactory scores regarding how they represent the field data used for calibration (old) and used for validation (new). The first two of these measures are applied to hypothetical scenarios using the first case study and assuming field data consistent with the model or significantly different from the model results. In both cases it is shown how the two measures would lead to the appropriate decision about the model performance. Standard statistical tests are used to evaluate these measures with the results indicating they are appropriate measures for evaluating model realizations. The use of validation

  15. Why business models matter.

    PubMed

    Magretta, Joan

    2002-05-01

    "Business model" was one of the great buzz-words of the Internet boom. A company didn't need a strategy, a special competence, or even any customers--all it needed was a Web-based business model that promised wild profits in some distant, ill-defined future. Many people--investors, entrepreneurs, and executives alike--fell for the fantasy and got burned. And as the inevitable counterreaction played out, the concept of the business model fell out of fashion nearly as quickly as the .com appendage itself. That's a shame. As Joan Magretta explains, a good business model remains essential to every successful organization, whether it's a new venture or an established player. To help managers apply the concept successfully, she defines what a business model is and how it complements a smart competitive strategy. Business models are, at heart, stories that explain how enterprises work. Like a good story, a robust business model contains precisely delineated characters, plausible motivations, and a plot that turns on an insight about value. It answers certain questions: Who is the customer? How do we make money? What underlying economic logic explains how we can deliver value to customers at an appropriate cost? Every viable organization is built on a sound business model, but a business model isn't a strategy, even though many people use the terms interchangeably. Business models describe, as a system, how the pieces of a business fit together. But they don't factor in one critical dimension of performance: competition. That's the job of strategy. Illustrated with examples from companies like American Express, EuroDisney, WalMart, and Dell Computer, this article clarifies the concepts of business models and strategy, which are fundamental to every company's performance. PMID:12024761

  16. Biosphere Process Model Report

    SciTech Connect

    J. Schmitt

    2000-05-25

    To evaluate the postclosure performance of a potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, a Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) will be conducted. Nine Process Model Reports (PMRs), including this document, are being developed to summarize the technical basis for each of the process models supporting the TSPA model. These reports cover the following areas: (1) Integrated Site Model; (2) Unsaturated Zone Flow and Transport; (3) Near Field Environment; (4) Engineered Barrier System Degradation, Flow, and Transport; (5) Waste Package Degradation; (6) Waste Form Degradation; (7) Saturated Zone Flow and Transport; (8) Biosphere; and (9) Disruptive Events. Analysis/Model Reports (AMRs) contain the more detailed technical information used to support TSPA and the PMRs. The AMRs consists of data, analyses, models, software, and supporting documentation that will be used to defend the applicability of each process model for evaluating the postclosure performance of the potential Yucca Mountain repository system. This documentation will ensure the traceability of information from its source through its ultimate use in the TSPA-Site Recommendation (SR) and in the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) analysis processes. The objective of the Biosphere PMR is to summarize (1) the development of the biosphere model, and (2) the Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCFs) developed for use in TSPA. The Biosphere PMR does not present or summarize estimates of potential radiation doses to human receptors. Dose calculations are performed as part of TSPA and will be presented in the TSPA documentation. The biosphere model is a component of the process to evaluate postclosure repository performance and regulatory compliance for a potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The biosphere model describes those exposure pathways in the biosphere by which radionuclides released from a potential repository could reach a human receptor

  17. Bayesian Data-Model Fit Assessment for Structural Equation Modeling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levy, Roy

    2011-01-01

    Bayesian approaches to modeling are receiving an increasing amount of attention in the areas of model construction and estimation in factor analysis, structural equation modeling (SEM), and related latent variable models. However, model diagnostics and model criticism remain relatively understudied aspects of Bayesian SEM. This article describes…

  18. Spiral model pilot project information model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    The objective was an evaluation of the Spiral Model (SM) development approach to allow NASA Marshall to develop an experience base of that software management methodology. A discussion is presented of the Information Model (IM) that was used as part of the SM methodology. A key concept of the SM is the establishment of an IM to be used by management to track the progress of a project. The IM is the set of metrics that is to be measured and reported throughout the life of the project. These metrics measure both the product and the process to ensure the quality of the final delivery item and to ensure the project met programmatic guidelines. The beauty of the SM, along with the IM, is the ability to measure not only the correctness of the specification and implementation of the requirements but to also obtain a measure of customer satisfaction.

  19. Model Minority Stereotype Reconsidered.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kobayashi, Futoshi

    This paper explores the origin and historical background of the "model minority" stereotype. It includes evidence illustrating problems resulting from the artificial grouping of Asian Americans as one ethnic group and the stereotype's influence on young Asian Americans. In the 1960s, the U.S. media began to portray the model minority through…

  20. Modelling with Magnets.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gabel, Dorothy; And Others

    1992-01-01

    Chemistry can be described on three levels: sensory, molecular, and symbolic. Proposes a particle approach to teaching chemistry that uses magnets to aid students construct molecular models and solve particle problems. Includes examples of Johnstone's model of chemistry phenomena, a problem worksheet, and a student concept mastery sheet. (MDH)

  1. Modeling for Insights

    SciTech Connect

    Jacob J. Jacobson; Gretchen Matthern

    2007-04-01

    System Dynamics is a computer-aided approach to evaluating the interrelationships of different components and activities within complex systems. Recently, System Dynamics models have been developed in areas such as policy design, biological and medical modeling, energy and the environmental analysis, and in various other areas in the natural and social sciences. The real power of System Dynamic modeling is gaining insights into total system behavior as time, and system parameters are adjusted and the effects are visualized in real time. System Dynamic models allow decision makers and stakeholders to explore long-term behavior and performance of complex systems, especially in the context of dynamic processes and changing scenarios without having to wait decades to obtain field data or risk failure if a poor management or design approach is used. The Idaho National Laboratory recently has been developing a System Dynamic model of the US Nuclear Fuel Cycle. The model is intended to be used to identify and understand interactions throughout the entire nuclear fuel cycle and suggest sustainable development strategies. This paper describes the basic framework of the current model and presents examples of useful insights gained from the model thus far with respect to sustainable development of nuclear power.

  2. SUSY GUT Model Building

    SciTech Connect

    Raby, Stuart

    2008-11-23

    In this talk I discuss the evolution of SUSY GUT model building as I see it. Starting with 4 dimensional model building, I then consider orbifold GUTs in 5 dimensions and finally orbifold GUTs embedded into the E{sub 8}xE{sub 8} heterotic string.

  3. Erosion by Wind: Modeling

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Models of wind erosion are used to investigate fundamental processes and guide resource management. Many models are similar in that - temporal variables control soil wind erodibility; erosion begins when friction velocity exceeds a threshold; and transport capacity for saltation/creep is proportion...

  4. Validation of mesoscale models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuo, Bill; Warner, Tom; Benjamin, Stan; Koch, Steve; Staniforth, Andrew

    1993-01-01

    The topics discussed include the following: verification of cloud prediction from the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model; results form MAPS/NGM verification comparisons and MAPS observation sensitivity tests to ACARS and profiler data; systematic errors and mesoscale verification for a mesoscale model; and the COMPARE Project and the CME.

  5. Models in Biology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Flannery, Maura C.

    1997-01-01

    Addresses the most popular models currently being chosen for biological research and the reasons behind those choices. Among the current favorites are zebra fish, fruit flies, mice, monkeys, and yeast. Concludes with a brief examination of the ethical issues involved, and why some animals may need to be replaced in research with model systems.…

  6. Models and Metaphors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ivie, Stanley D.

    2007-01-01

    Humanity delights in spinning conceptual models of the world. These models, in turn, mirror their respective root metaphors. Three root metaphors--spiritual, organic, and mechanical--have dominated western thought. The spiritual metaphor runs from Plato, through Hegel, and connects with Montessori. The organic metaphor extends from Aristotle,…

  7. PHOTOCHEMICAL BOX MODEL (PBM)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This magnetic tape contains the FORTRAN source code, sample input data, and sample output data for the Photochemical Box Model (PBM). The PBM is a simple stationary single-cell model with a variable height lid designed to provide volume-integrated hour averages of O3 and other ph...

  8. Flowfield modeling and diagnostics

    SciTech Connect

    Gupta, A.K.; Lilley, D.G.

    1985-01-01

    This textbook is devoted solely to flowfield modeling and diagnostics; their practical use, recent and current research, and projected developments and trends. It provides an account of the use of a broad range of techniques in industrial and research practice, both with and without combustion. Application ideas are complemented by details about experimental and modeling techniques.

  9. Model Children's Code.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    New Mexico Univ., Albuquerque. American Indian Law Center.

    The Model Children's Code was developed to provide a legally correct model code that American Indian tribes can use to enact children's codes that fulfill their legal, cultural and economic needs. Code sections cover the court system, jurisdiction, juvenile offender procedures, minor-in-need-of-care, and termination. Almost every Code section is…

  10. Automated Student Model Improvement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koedinger, Kenneth R.; McLaughlin, Elizabeth A.; Stamper, John C.

    2012-01-01

    Student modeling plays a critical role in developing and improving instruction and instructional technologies. We present a technique for automated improvement of student models that leverages the DataShop repository, crowd sourcing, and a version of the Learning Factors Analysis algorithm. We demonstrate this method on eleven educational…

  11. Updating Situation Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zwaan, Rolf A.; Madden, Carol J.

    2004-01-01

    The authors examined how situation models are updated during text comprehension. If comprehenders keep track of the evolving situation, they should update their models such that the most current information, the here and now, is more available than outdated information. Contrary to this updating hypothesis, E. J. O'Brien, M. L. Rizzella, J. E.…

  12. Canister Model, Systems Analysis

    1993-09-29

    This packges provides a computer simulation of a systems model for packaging nuclear waste and spent nuclear fuel in canisters. The canister model calculates overall programmatic cost, number of canisters, and fuel and waste inventories for the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant (other initial conditions can be entered).

  13. Acid rain: Microphysical model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dingle, A. N.

    1980-01-01

    A microphysical model was used to simulate the case of a ground cloud without dilution by entrainment and without precipitation. The numerical integration techniques of the model are presented. The droplet size spectra versus time and the droplet molalities for each value of time are discussed.

  14. Model Cities Training Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tennessee Univ., Chattanooga.

    The Model Cities Training Program, the first in the country, is a 10-session course to be conducted in seminar form under the direction of the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga. The objective is to enable the 50 members of the Community Development Administration Board of Directors to: acquire knowledge of the structure of the Model Cities…

  15. Connectionist Modelling and Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Evers, Colin W.

    2000-01-01

    Provides a detailed, technical introduction to the state of cognitive science research, in particular the rise of the "new cognitive science," especially artificial neural net (ANN) models. Explains one influential ANN model and describes diverse applications and their implications for education. (EV)

  16. Animal models for osteoporosis.

    PubMed

    Turner, R T; Maran, A; Lotinun, S; Hefferan, T; Evans, G L; Zhang, M; Sibonga, J D

    2001-01-01

    Animal models will continue to be important tools in the quest to understand the contribution of specific genes to establishment of peak bone mass and optimal bone architecture, as well as the genetic basis for a predisposition toward accelerated bone loss in the presence of co-morbidity factors such as estrogen deficiency. Existing animal models will continue to be useful for modeling changes in bone metabolism and architecture induced by well-defined local and systemic factors. However, there is a critical unfulfilled need to develop and validate better animal models to allow fruitful investigation of the interaction of the multitude of factors which precipitate senile osteoporosis. Well characterized and validated animal models that can be recommended for investigation of the etiology, prevention and treatment of several forms of osteoporosis have been listed in Table 1. Also listed are models which are provisionally recommended. These latter models have potential but are inadequately characterized, deviate significantly from the human response, require careful choice of strain or age, or are not practical for most investigators to adopt. It cannot be stressed strongly enough that the enormous potential of laboratory animals as models for osteoporosis can only be realized if great care is taken in the choice of an appropriate species, age, experimental design, and measurements. Poor choices will results in misinterpretation of results which ultimately can bring harm to patients who suffer from osteoporosis by delaying advancement of knowledge. PMID:11704974

  17. Solar Atmosphere Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rutten, R. J.

    2002-12-01

    This contribution honoring Kees de Jager's 80th birthday is a review of "one-dimensional" solar atmosphere modeling that followed on the initial "Utrecht Reference Photosphere" of Heintze, Hubenet & de Jager (1964). My starting point is the Bilderberg conference, convened by de Jager in 1967 at the time when NLTE radiative transfer theory became mature. The resulting Bilderberg model was quickly superseded by the HSRA and later by the VAL-FAL sequence of increasingly sophisticated NLTE continuum-fitting models from Harvard. They became the "standard models" of solar atmosphere physics, but Holweger's relatively simple LTE line-fitting model still persists as a favorite of solar abundance determiners. After a brief model inventory I discuss subsequent work on the major modeling issues (coherency, NLTE, dynamics) listed as to-do items by de Jager in 1968. The present conclusion is that one-dimensional modeling recovers Schwarzschild's (1906) finding that the lower solar atmosphere is grosso modo in radiative equilibrium. This is a boon for applications regarding the solar atmosphere as one-dimensional stellar example - but the real sun, including all the intricate phenomena that now constitute the mainstay of solar physics, is vastly more interesting.

  18. Modelling Hadronic Matter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menezes, Débora P.

    2016-04-01

    Hadron physics stands somewhere in the diffuse intersection between nuclear and particle physics and relies largely on the use of models. Historically, around 1930, the first nuclear physics models known as the liquid drop model and the semi-empirical mass formula established the grounds for the study of nuclei properties and nuclear structure. These two models are parameter dependent. Nowadays, around 500 hundred non-relativistic (Skyrme-type) and relativistic models are available in the literature and largely used and the vast majority are parameter dependent models. In this review I discuss some of the shortcomings of using non-relativistic models and the advantages of using relativistic ones when applying them to describe hadronic matter. I also show possible applications of relativistic models to physical situations that cover part of the QCD phase diagram: I mention how the description of compact objects can be done, how heavy-ion collisions can be investigated and particle fractions obtained and show the relation between liquid-gas phase transitions and the pasta phase.

  19. Pathological Gambling: Psychiatric Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Westphal, James R.

    2008-01-01

    Three psychiatric conceptual models: addictive, obsessive-compulsive spectrum and mood spectrum disorder have been proposed for pathological gambling. The objectives of this paper are to (1) evaluate the evidence base from the most recent reviews of each model, (2) update the evidence through 2007 and (3) summarize the status of the evidence for…

  20. Reliability model generator specification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cohen, Gerald C.; Mccann, Catherine

    1990-01-01

    The Reliability Model Generator (RMG), a program which produces reliability models from block diagrams for ASSIST, the interface for the reliability evaluation tool SURE is described. An account is given of motivation for RMG and the implemented algorithms are discussed. The appendices contain the algorithms and two detailed traces of examples.

  1. STREAM WATER QUALITY MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    QUAL2K (or Q2K) is a river and stream water quality model that is intended to represent a modernized version of the QUAL2E (or Q2E) model (Brown and Barnwell 1987). Q2K is similar to Q2E in the following respects:

    • One dimensional. The channel is well-mixed vertically a...

    • Fictional models in science

      NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

      Morrison, Margaret

      2014-02-01

      When James Clerk Maxwell set out his famous equations 150 years ago, his model of electromagnetism included a piece of pure fiction: an invisible, all-pervasive "aether" made up of elastic vortices separated by electric charges. Margaret Morrison explores how this and other "fictional" models shape science.

    • Composite Load Model Evaluation

      SciTech Connect

      Lu, Ning; Qiao, Hong

      2007-09-30

      The WECC load modeling task force has dedicated its effort in the past few years to develop a composite load model that can represent behaviors of different end-user components. The modeling structure of the composite load model is recommended by the WECC load modeling task force. GE Energy has implemented this composite load model with a new function CMPLDW in its power system simulation software package, PSLF. For the last several years, Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) has taken the lead and collaborated with GE Energy to develop the new composite load model. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and BPA joint force and conducted the evaluation of the CMPLDW and test its parameter settings to make sure that: • the model initializes properly, • all the parameter settings are functioning, and • the simulation results are as expected. The PNNL effort focused on testing the CMPLDW in a 4-bus system. An exhaustive testing on each parameter setting has been performed to guarantee each setting works. This report is a summary of the PNNL testing results and conclusions.

    • HYBRID RECEPTOR MODELS

      EPA Science Inventory

      A hybrid receptor model is a specified mathematical procedure which uses not only the ambient species concentration measurements that form the input data for a pure receptor model, but in addition source emission rates or atmospheric dispersion or transformation information chara...

    • The Leadership Training Model.

      ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

      Parker, Jeanette P.

      1983-01-01

      The article proposes a model for developing leadership among gifted students. Four components of the model are identified and sample subskills described: cognition (exploration, research); problem solving (incubation, creative thinking); interpersonal communication (self realization, cooperation, conflict resolution); and decision making skills…

    • Animal models for osteoporosis

      NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

      Turner, R. T.; Maran, A.; Lotinun, S.; Hefferan, T.; Evans, G. L.; Zhang, M.; Sibonga, J. D.

      2001-01-01

      Animal models will continue to be important tools in the quest to understand the contribution of specific genes to establishment of peak bone mass and optimal bone architecture, as well as the genetic basis for a predisposition toward accelerated bone loss in the presence of co-morbidity factors such as estrogen deficiency. Existing animal models will continue to be useful for modeling changes in bone metabolism and architecture induced by well-defined local and systemic factors. However, there is a critical unfulfilled need to develop and validate better animal models to allow fruitful investigation of the interaction of the multitude of factors which precipitate senile osteoporosis. Well characterized and validated animal models that can be recommended for investigation of the etiology, prevention and treatment of several forms of osteoporosis have been listed in Table 1. Also listed are models which are provisionally recommended. These latter models have potential but are inadequately characterized, deviate significantly from the human response, require careful choice of strain or age, or are not practical for most investigators to adopt. It cannot be stressed strongly enough that the enormous potential of laboratory animals as models for osteoporosis can only be realized if great care is taken in the choice of an appropriate species, age, experimental design, and measurements. Poor choices will results in misinterpretation of results which ultimately can bring harm to patients who suffer from osteoporosis by delaying advancement of knowledge.

    • Structural Equation Model Trees

      ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

      Brandmaier, Andreas M.; von Oertzen, Timo; McArdle, John J.; Lindenberger, Ulman

      2013-01-01

      In the behavioral and social sciences, structural equation models (SEMs) have become widely accepted as a modeling tool for the relation between latent and observed variables. SEMs can be seen as a unification of several multivariate analysis techniques. SEM Trees combine the strengths of SEMs and the decision tree paradigm by building tree…

    • Modeling Water Filtration

      ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

      Parks, Melissa

      2014-01-01

      Model-eliciting activities (MEAs) are not new to those in engineering or mathematics, but they were new to Melissa Parks. Model-eliciting activities are simulated real-world problems that integrate engineering, mathematical, and scientific thinking as students find solutions for specific scenarios. During this process, students generate solutions…

    • Computational Modeling of Tires

      NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

      Noor, Ahmed K. (Compiler); Tanner, John A. (Compiler)

      1995-01-01

      This document contains presentations and discussions from the joint UVA/NASA Workshop on Computational Modeling of Tires. The workshop attendees represented NASA, the Army and Air force, tire companies, commercial software developers, and academia. The workshop objectives were to assess the state of technology in the computational modeling of tires and to provide guidelines for future research.

    • AGRICULTURAL SIMULATION MODEL (AGSIM)

      EPA Science Inventory

      AGSIM is a large-scale econometric simulation model of regional crop and national livestock production in the United States. The model was initially developed to analyze the aggregate economic impacts of a wide variety issues facing agriculture, such as technological change, pest...

    • Generalized gamma frailty model.

      PubMed

      Balakrishnan, N; Peng, Yingwei

      2006-08-30

      In this article, we present a frailty model using the generalized gamma distribution as the frailty distribution. It is a power generalization of the popular gamma frailty model. It also includes other frailty models such as the lognormal and Weibull frailty models as special cases. The flexibility of this frailty distribution makes it possible to detect a complex frailty distribution structure which may otherwise be missed. Due to the intractable integrals in the likelihood function and its derivatives, we propose to approximate the integrals either by Monte Carlo simulation or by a quadrature method and then determine the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in the model. We explore the properties of the proposed frailty model and the computation method through a simulation study. The study shows that the proposed model can potentially reduce errors in the estimation, and that it provides a viable alternative for correlated data. The merits of proposed model are demonstrated in analysing the effects of sublingual nitroglycerin and oral isosorbide dinitrate on angina pectoris of coronary heart disease patients based on the data set in Danahy et al. (sustained hemodynamic and antianginal effect of high dose oral isosorbide dinitrate. Circulation 1977; 55:381-387). PMID:16220516

    • Humane Education: A Model

      ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

      Dobson, Russell; And Others

      1976-01-01

      A two part hypothetical model of education incorporating basic beliefs of man with educational practice is presented for consideration by educators. Basic elements of the model include purpose, experience, formative evaluation, philosophy, knowledge, learning, goals, curriculum, instruction, and parental involvement. Journal may be ordered from…

    • Stereolithography models. Final report

      SciTech Connect

      Smith, R.E.

      1995-03-01

      This report describes the first stereolithographic models made, which proved in a new release of ProEngineer software (Parametric Technologies, or PTC) and 3D Systems (Valencia, California) software for the SLA 250 machine. They are a model of benzene and the {alpha}-carbon backbone of the variable region of an antibody.

    • Metaphorical Models in Chemistry.

      ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

      Rosenfeld, Stuart; Bhusan, Nalini

      1995-01-01

      What happens when students of chemistry fail to recognize the metaphorical status of certain models and interpret them literally? Suggests that such failures lead students to form perceptions of phenomena that can be misleading. Argues that the key to making good use of metaphorical models is a recognition of their metaphorical status. Examines…

    • Modeling and simulation

      SciTech Connect

      Hanham, R.; Vogt, W.G.; Mickle, M.H.

      1986-01-01

      This book presents the papers given at a conference on computerized simulation. Topics considered at the conference included expert systems, modeling in electric power systems, power systems operating strategies, energy analysis, a linear programming approach to optimum load shedding in transmission systems, econometrics, simulation in natural gas engineering, solar energy studies, artificial intelligence, vision systems, hydrology, multiprocessors, and flow models.

    • Postinstability models in elasticity

      NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

      Zak, M.

      1984-01-01

      It is demonstrated that the instability caused by the failure of hyperbolicity in elasticity and associated with the problem of unpredictability in classical mechanics expresses the incompleteness of the original model of an elastic medium. The instability as well as the ill-posedness of the Cauchy problem are eliminated by reformulating the original model.

    • Foundations of Biomolecular Modeling

      PubMed Central

      Jorgensen, William L.

      2014-01-01

      The 2013 Nobel Prize in Chemistry has been awarded to Martin Kaplus, Michael Levitt, and Arieh Warshel for “Development of Multiscale Models for Complex Chemical Systems”. The honored work from the 1970s has provided a foundation for the widespread activities today in modeling organic and biomolecular systems. PMID:24315087

    • Model State Efforts.

      ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

      Morgan, Gwen

      Models of state involvement in training child care providers are briefly discussed and the employers' role in training is explored. Six criteria for states that are taken as models are identified, and four are described. Various state activities are described for each criterion. It is noted that little is known about employer and other private…

    • Mathematical models of hysteresis

      SciTech Connect

      1998-08-01

      The ongoing research has largely been focused on the development of mathematical models of hysteretic nonlinearities with nonlocal memories. The distinct feature of these nonlinearities is that their current states depend on past histories of input variations. It turns out that memories of hysteretic nonlinearities are quite selective. Indeed, experiments show that only some past input extrema (not the entire input variations) leave their marks upon future states of hysteretic nonlinearities. Thus special mathematical tools are needed in order to describe nonlocal selective memories of hysteretic nonlinearities. The origin of such tools can be traced back to the landmark paper of Preisach. Their research has been primarily concerned with Preisach-type models of hysteresis. All these models have a common generic feature; they are constructed as superpositions of simplest hysteretic nonlinearities-rectangular loops. During the past four years, the study has been by and large centered around the following topics: (1) further development of Scalar and vector Preisach-type models of hysteresis; (2) experimental testing of Preisach-type models of hysteresis; (3) development of new models for viscosity (aftereffect) in hysteretic systems; (4) development of mathematical models for superconducting hysteresis in the case of gradual resistive transitions; (5) software implementation of Preisach-type models of hysteresis; and (6) development of new ideas which have emerged in the course of the research work. The author briefly describes the main scientific results obtained in the areas outlined above.

    • Model-Based Reasoning

      ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

      Ifenthaler, Dirk; Seel, Norbert M.

      2013-01-01

      In this paper, there will be a particular focus on mental models and their application to inductive reasoning within the realm of instruction. A basic assumption of this study is the observation that the construction of mental models and related reasoning is a slowly developing capability of cognitive systems that emerges effectively with proper…

  1. A night sky model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erpylev, N. P.; Smirnov, M. A.; Bagrov, A. V.

    A night sky model is proposed. It includes different components of light polution, such as solar twilight, moon scattered light, zodiacal light, Milky Way, air glow and artificial light pollution. The model is designed for calculating the efficiency of astronomical installations.

  2. Modeling HIV Cure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perelson, Alan; Conway, Jessica; Cao, Youfang

    A large effort is being made to find a means to cure HIV infection. I will present a dynamical model of post-treatment control (PTC) or ``functional cure'' of HIV-infection. Some patients treated with suppressive antiviral therapy have been taken off of therapy and then spontaneously control HIV infection such that the amount of virus in the circulation is maintained undetectable by clinical assays for years. The model explains PTC occurring in some patients by having a parameter regime in which the model exhibits bistability, with both a low and high steady state viral load being stable. The model makes a number of predictions about how to attain the low PTC steady state. Bistability in this model depends upon the immune response becoming exhausted when over stimulated. I will also present a generalization of the model in which immunotherapy can be used to reverse immune exhaustion and compare model predictions with experiments in SIV infected macaques given immunotherapy and then taken off of antiretroviral therapy. Lastly, if time permits, I will discuss one of the hurdles to true HIV eradication, latently infected cells, and present clinical trial data and a new model addressing pharmacological means of flushing out the latent reservoir. Supported by NIH Grants AI028433 and OD011095.

  3. Prewhirl Jet Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meng, S. Y.; Jensen, M.; Jackson, E. D.

    1985-01-01

    Simple accurate model of centrifugal or rocket engine pumps provides information necessary to design inducer backflow deflector, backflow eliminator and prewhirl jet in jet mixing zones. Jet design based on this model shows improvement in inducer suction performance and reduced cavitation damage.

  4. MULTIMEDIA EXPOSURE MODELING

    EPA Science Inventory

    This task addresses a number of issues that arise in multimedia modeling with an emphasis on interactions among the atmosphere and multiple other environmental media. Approaches for working with multiple types of models and the data sets are being developed. Proper software tool...

  5. Using Models Effectively

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eichinger, John

    2005-01-01

    Models are crucial to science teaching and learning, yet they can create unforeseen and overlooked challenges for students and teachers. For example, consider the time-tested clay volcano that relies on a vinegar and-baking-soda mixture for its "eruption." Based on a classroom demonstration of that geologic model, elementary students may interpret…

  6. SOSS ICN Model Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhu, Zhifan

    2016-01-01

    Under the NASA-KAIA-KARI ATM research collaboration agreement, SOSS ICN Model has been developed for Incheon International Airport. This presentation describes the model validation work in the project. The presentation will show the results and analysis of the validation.

  7. MODELING THE AMES TEST

    EPA Science Inventory

    Despite the value and widespread use of the Ames test, little attention has been focused on standardizing quantitative methods of analyzing these data. In this paper, a realistic and statistically tractable model is developed for the evaluation of Ames-type data. The model assume...

  8. VENTURI SCRUBBER PERFORMANCE MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    The paper presents a new model for predicting the particle collection performance of venturi scrubbers. It assumes that particles are collected by atomized liquid only in the throat section. The particle collection mechanism is inertial impaction, and the model uses a single drop...

  9. Modeling Carbon Exchange

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sellers, Piers

    2012-01-01

    Model results will be reviewed to assess different methods for bounding the terrestrial role in the global carbon cycle. It is proposed that a series of climate model runs could be scoped that would tighten the limits on the "missing sink" of terrestrial carbon and could also direct future satellite image analyses to search for its geographical location and understand its seasonal dynamics.

  10. Warm Inflation Model Building

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bastero-Gil, Mar; Berera, Arjun

    We review the main aspects of the warm inflation scenario, focusing on the inflationary dynamics and the predictions related to the primordial spectrum of perturbations, to be compared with the recent cosmological observations. We study in detail three different classes of inflationary models, chaotic, hybrid models and hilltop models, and discuss their embedding into supersymmetric models and the consequences for model building of the warm inflationary dynamics based on first principles calculations. Due to the extra friction term introduced in the inflaton background evolution generated by the dissipative dynamics, inflation can take place generically for smaller values of the field, and larger values of couplings and masses. When the dissipative dynamics dominates over the expansion, in the so-called strong dissipative regime, inflation proceeds with sub-Planckian inflaton values. Models can be naturally embedded into a supergravity framework, with SUGRA corrections suppressed by the Planck mass now under control, for a larger class of Kähler potentials. In particular, this provides a simpler solution to the "eta" problem in supersymmetric hybrid inflation, without restricting the Kähler potentials compatible with inflation. For chaotic models dissipation leads to a smaller prediction for the tensor-to-scalar ratio and a less tilted spectrum when compared to the cold inflation scenario. We find in particular that a small component of dissipation renders the quartic model now consistent with the current CMB data.

  11. Modeling and Interrogative Strategies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Denney, Douglas R.

    Three studies to determine the effects of adult models on interrogative strategies of children (ages 6-11) are reviewed. Two issues are analyzed: (1) the comparative effectiveness of various types of modeling procedures for changing rule-governed behaviors, and (2) the interaction between observational learning and the developmental level of the…

  12. Modelling University Governance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trakman, Leon

    2008-01-01

    Twentieth century governance models used in public universities are subject to increasing doubt across the English-speaking world. Governments question if public universities are being efficiently governed; if their boards of trustees are adequately fulfilling their trust obligations towards multiple stakeholders; and if collegial models of…

  13. Dynamical models of happiness.

    PubMed

    Sprott, J C

    2005-01-01

    A sequence of models for the time evolution of one's happiness in response to external events is described. These models with added nonlinearities can produce stable oscillations and chaos even without external events. Potential implications for psychotherapy and a personal approach to life are discussed. PMID:15629066

  14. Evaluating Causal Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Watt, James H., Jr.

    Pointing out that linear causal models can organize the interrelationships of a large number of variables, this paper contends that such models are particularly useful to mass communication research, which must by necessity deal with complex systems of variables. The paper first outlines briefly the philosophical requirements for establishing a…

  15. Ionospheric modelling for navigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aragon Angel, M. A.

    Signals transmitted to and from satellites for communication and navigation purposes must pass through the ionosphere Ionospheric irregularities most common at equatorial latitudes although they could occur anywhere can have a major impact on system performance and reliability and commercial navigation service satellite-based providers need to account for their effects For a GNSS single-frequency receiver the Slant Total Electron Content STEC must be known by the user through broadcast corrections In this context there are several sets of broadcast parameters that can be defined to take into account this ionospheric term The chosen model to generate the ionospheric correction coefficients for the present study is the NeQuick model although with a number of adaptations intended to improve effective ionospheric effect modelling performances The aim of this study is to describe a possible adaptation to the NeQuick model for real time purposes and suitable for single frequency users Therefore it will be necessary to determine the performance of this modified NeQuick model in correcting the ionospheric delay In order to generate the ionospheric corrections for single frequency receivers using the NeQuick model a certain approach should be followed to adapt the performance of NeQuick since this model was originally developed to provide TEC using averaged monthly information of the solar activity and not daily one Thus to use NeQuick for real time applications as an ionospheric broadcasted model such as Klobuchar solar daily information at the user point

  16. A Model for Implementation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Connor-Petruso, Sharon Anne

    2003-01-01

    Describes the Constructural Multi-Modalities Model for MST (math, science, and technology) Inquiry Units. The MST Model uses an interdisciplinary and constructivist approach and allows teachers to create lesson plans that: integrate MST in tandem; adhere to local, state, and national standards; and actively engage students' differentiated learning…

  17. Dual-Schemata Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taniguchi, Tadahiro; Sawaragi, Tetsuo

    In this paper, a new machine-learning method, called Dual-Schemata model, is presented. Dual-Schemata model is a kind of self-organizational machine learning methods for an autonomous robot interacting with an unknown dynamical environment. This is based on Piaget's Schema model, that is a classical psychological model to explain memory and cognitive development of human beings. Our Dual-Schemata model is developed as a computational model of Piaget's Schema model, especially focusing on sensori-motor developing period. This developmental process is characterized by a couple of two mutually-interacting dynamics; one is a dynamics formed by assimilation and accommodation, and the other dynamics is formed by equilibration and differentiation. By these dynamics schema system enables an agent to act well in a real world. This schema's differentiation process corresponds to a symbol formation process occurring within an autonomous agent when it interacts with an unknown, dynamically changing environment. Experiment results obtained from an autonomous facial robot in which our model is embedded are presented; an autonomous facial robot becomes able to chase a ball moving in various ways without any rewards nor teaching signals from outside. Moreover, emergence of concepts on the target movements within a robot is shown and discussed in terms of fuzzy logics on set-subset inclusive relationships.

  18. THE AQUATOX MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    This lecture will present AQUATOX, an aquatic ecosystem simulation model developed by Dr. Dick Park and supported by the U.S. EPA. The AQUATOX model predicts the fate of various pollutants, such as nutrients and organic chemicals, and their effects on the ecosystem, including fi...

  19. Modeling Antibody Diversity.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baker, William P.; Moore, Cathy Ronstadt

    1998-01-01

    Understanding antibody structure and function is difficult for many students. The rearrangement of constant and variable regions during antibody differentiation can be effectively simulated using a paper model. Describes a hands-on laboratory exercise which allows students to model antibody diversity using readily available resources. (PVD)

  20. String Model Building

    SciTech Connect

    Raby, Stuart

    2010-02-10

    In this talk I review some recent progress in heterotic and F theory model building. I then consider work in progress attempting to find the F theory dual to a class of heterotic orbifold models which come quite close to the MSSM.

  1. Earth and ocean modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Knezovich, F. M.

    1976-01-01

    A modular structured system of computer programs is presented utilizing earth and ocean dynamical data keyed to finitely defined parameters. The model is an assemblage of mathematical algorithms with an inherent capability of maturation with progressive improvements in observational data frequencies, accuracies and scopes. The Eom in its present state is a first-order approach to a geophysical model of the earth's dynamics.

  2. ATMOSPHERIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    This task provides credible state of the art air quality models and guidance for use in implementation of National Ambient Air Quality Standards for ozone and PM. This research effort is to develop and improve air quality models, such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMA...

  3. Bitzer's Model Reconstructed.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lybarger, Scott; Smith, Craig R.

    1996-01-01

    Reconstructs Lloyd Bitzer's situational model to serve as a guide for the generation of multiperspectival critical assessments of rhetorical discourse. Uses two of President Bush's speeches on the drug crisis to illustrate how the reconstructed model can account for such modern problems as multiple audiences, perceptions, and exigencies. (PA)

  4. Radiation risk estimation models

    SciTech Connect

    Hoel, D.G.

    1987-11-01

    Cancer risk models and their relationship to ionizing radiation are discussed. There are many model assumptions and risk factors that have a large quantitative impact on the cancer risk estimates. Other health end points such as mental retardation may be an even more serious risk than cancer for those with in utero exposures. 8 references.

  5. Model for Coastal Restoration

    SciTech Connect

    Thom, Ronald M.; Judd, Chaeli

    2007-07-27

    Successful restoration of wetland habitats depends on both our understanding of our system and our ability to characterize it. By developing a conceptual model, looking at different spatial scales and integrating diverse data streams: GIS datasets and NASA products, we were able to develop a dynamic model for site prioritization based on both qualitative and quantitative relationships found in the coastal environment.

  6. The EMEFS model evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Barchet, W.R. ); Dennis, R.L. ); Seilkop, S.K. ); Banic, C.M.; Davies, D.; Hoff, R.M.; Macdonald, A.M.; Mickle, R.E.; Padro, J.; Puckett, K. ); Byun, D.; McHenry, J.N.

    1991-12-01

    The binational Eulerian Model Evaluation Field Study (EMEFS) consisted of several coordinated data gathering and model evaluation activities. In the EMEFS, data were collected by five air and precipitation monitoring networks between June 1988 and June 1990. Model evaluation is continuing. This interim report summarizes the progress made in the evaluation of the Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) and the Acid Deposition and Oxidant Model (ADOM) through the December 1990 completion of a State of Science and Technology report on model evaluation for the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP). Because various assessment applications of RADM had to be evaluated for NAPAP, the report emphasizes the RADM component of the evaluation. A protocol for the evaluation was developed by the model evaluation team and defined the observed and predicted values to be used and the methods by which the observed and predicted values were to be compared. Scatter plots and time series of predicted and observed values were used to present the comparisons graphically. Difference statistics and correlations were used to quantify model performance. 64 refs., 34 figs., 6 tabs.

  7. Multilevel Mixture Factor Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Varriale, Roberta; Vermunt, Jeroen K.

    2012-01-01

    Factor analysis is a statistical method for describing the associations among sets of observed variables in terms of a small number of underlying continuous latent variables. Various authors have proposed multilevel extensions of the factor model for the analysis of data sets with a hierarchical structure. These Multilevel Factor Models (MFMs)…

  8. Tacit Models and Infinity.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fischbein, Efraim

    2001-01-01

    Analyses several examples of tacit influences exerted by mental models on the interpretation of various mathematical concepts in the domain of actual infinity. Specifically addresses the unconscious effect of the figural-pictorial models of statements related to the infinite sets of geometrical points related to the concepts of function and…

  9. Video Self-Modeling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Buggey, Tom; Ogle, Lindsey

    2012-01-01

    Video self-modeling (VSM) first appeared on the psychology and education stage in the early 1970s. The practical applications of VSM were limited by lack of access to tools for editing video, which is necessary for almost all self-modeling videos. Thus, VSM remained in the research domain until the advent of camcorders and VCR/DVD players and,…

  10. Modelling extended chromospheres

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Linsky, J. L.

    1986-01-01

    Attention is given to the concept that the warm, partially ionized plasma (presently called chromosphere) associated with such stars as Alpha Boo and Rho Per extends outwards at least several photospheric radii. Calculations are presented for the Mg II K line in light of two input model atmospheres. Specific predictions are deduced from the results obtained by each of the two models.

  11. Enrollment Projection Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gustafson, B. Kerry; Hample, Stephen R.

    General documentation for the Enrollment Projection Model used by the Maryland Council for Higher Education (MCHE) is provided. The manual is directed toward both the potential users of the model as well as others interested in enrollment projections. The first four chapters offer administrators or planners insight into the derivation of the…

  12. [Predictive models for ART].

    PubMed

    Arvis, P; Guivarc'h-Levêque, A; Varlan, E; Colella, C; Lehert, P

    2013-02-01

    A predictive model is a mathematical expression estimating the probability of pregnancy, by combining predictive variables, or indicators. Its development requires three successive phases: formulation of the model, its validation--internal then external--and the impact study. Its performance is assessed by its discrimination and its calibration. Numerous models were proposed, for spontaneous pregnancies, IUI and IVF, but with rather poor results, and their external validation was seldom carried out and was mainly inconclusive. The impact study-consisting in ascertaining whether their use improves medical practice--was exceptionally done. The ideal ART predictive model is a "Center specific" model, helping physicians to choose between abstention, IUI and IVF, by providing a reliable cumulative rate of pregnancy for each option. This tool would allow to rationalize the practices, by avoiding premature, late, or hopeless treatments. The model would also allow to compare the performances between ART Centers based on objective criteria. Today the best solution is to adjust the existing models to one's own practice, by considering models validated with variables describing the treated population, whilst adjusting the calculation to the Center's performances. PMID:23182786

  13. Applied model validation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davies, A. D.

    1985-07-01

    The NBS Center for Fire Research (CFR) conducts scientific research bearing on the fire safety of buildings, vehicles, tunnels and other inhabited structures. Data from controlled fire experiments are collected, analyzed and reduced to the analytical formulas that appear to underly the observed phenomena. These results and more general physical principles are then combined into models to predict the development of environments that may be hostile to humans. This is a progress report of an applied model validation case study. The subject model is Transport of Fire, Smoke and Gases (FAST). Products from a fire in a burn room exit through a connected corridor to outdoors. Cooler counterflow air in a lower layer feeds the fire. The model predicts corridor layer temperatures and thicknesses vs. time, given enclosure, fire and ambient specifications. Data have been collected from 38 tests using several fire sizes, but have not been reduced. Corresponding model results, and model and test documentation are yet to come. Considerable modeling and calculation is needed to convert instrument readings to test results comparable with model outputs so that residual differences may be determined.

  14. Unitary Response Regression Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lipovetsky, S.

    2007-01-01

    The dependent variable in a regular linear regression is a numerical variable, and in a logistic regression it is a binary or categorical variable. In these models the dependent variable has varying values. However, there are problems yielding an identity output of a constant value which can also be modelled in a linear or logistic regression with…

  15. Animal models of tinnitus.

    PubMed

    Brozoski, Thomas J; Bauer, Carol A

    2016-08-01

    Presented is a thematic review of animal tinnitus models from a functional perspective. Chronic tinnitus is a persistent subjective sound sensation, emergent typically after hearing loss. Although the sensation is experientially simple, it appears to have central a nervous system substrate of unexpected complexity that includes areas outside of those classically defined as auditory. Over the past 27 years animal models have significantly contributed to understanding tinnitus' complex neurophysiology. In that time, a diversity of models have been developed, each with its own strengths and limitations. None has clearly become a standard. Animal models trace their origin to the 1988 experiments of Jastreboff and colleagues. All subsequent models derive some of their features from those experiments. Common features include behavior-dependent psychophysical determination, acoustic conditions that contrast objective sound and silence, and inclusion of at least one normal-hearing control group. In the present review, animal models have been categorized as either interrogative or reflexive. Interrogative models use emitted behavior under voluntary control to indicate hearing. An example would be pressing a lever to obtain food in the presence of a particular sound. In this type of model animals are interrogated about their auditory sensations, analogous to asking a patient, "What do you hear?" These models require at least some training and motivation management, and reflect the perception of tinnitus. Reflexive models, in contrast, employ acoustic modulation of an auditory reflex, such as the acoustic startle response. An unexpected loud sound will elicit a reflexive motor response from many species, including humans. Although involuntary, acoustic startle can be modified by a lower-level preceding event, including a silent sound gap. Sound-gap modulation of acoustic startle appears to discriminate tinnitus in animals as well as humans, and requires no training or

  16. Simplified Models for Dark Matter Model Building

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DiFranzo, Anthony Paul

    The largest mass component of the universe is a longstanding mystery to the physics community. As a glaring source of new physics beyond the Standard Model, there is a large effort to uncover the quantum nature of dark matter. Many probes have been formed to search for this elusive matter; cultivating a rich environment for a phenomenologist. In addition to the primary probes---colliders, direct detection, and indirect detection---each with their own complexities, there is a plethora of prospects to illuminate our unanswered questions. In this work, phenomenological techniques for studying dark matter and other possible hints of new physics will be discussed. This work primarily focuses on the use of Simplified Models, which are intended to be a compromise between generality and validity of the theoretical description. They are often used to parameterize a particular search, develop a well-defined sense of complementarity between searches, or motivate new search strategies. Explicit examples of such models and how they may be used will be the highlight of each chapter.

  17. Turbulence Modeling: A NASA Perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gatski, T. B.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents turbulence modeling from NASA's perspective. The topics include: 1) Hierarchy of Solution Methods; 2) Turbulence Modeling Focus; 3) Linear Eddy Viscosity Models; and 4) Nonlinear Eddy Viscosity Algebraic Stress Models.

  18. BioVapor Model Evaluation

    EPA Science Inventory

    General background on modeling and specifics of modeling vapor intrusion are given. Three classical model applications are described and related to the problem of petroleum vapor intrusion. These indicate the need for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. Evaluation of Bi...

  19. Australia's Next Top Fraction Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gould, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Peter Gould suggests Australia's next top fraction model should be a linear model rather than an area model. He provides a convincing argument and gives examples of ways to introduce a linear model in primary classrooms.

  20. Staged Models for Interdisciplinary Research.

    PubMed

    Lafuerza, Luis F; Dyson, Louise; Edmonds, Bruce; McKane, Alan J

    2016-01-01

    Modellers of complex biological or social systems are often faced with an invidious choice: to use simple models with few mechanisms that can be fully analysed, or to construct complicated models that include all the features which are thought relevant. The former ensures rigour, the latter relevance. We discuss a method that combines these two approaches, beginning with a complex model and then modelling the complicated model with simpler models. The resulting "chain" of models ensures some rigour and relevance. We illustrate this process on a complex model of voting intentions, constructing a reduced model which agrees well with the predictions of the full model. Experiments with variations of the simpler model yield additional insights which are hidden by the complexity of the full model. This approach facilitated collaboration between social scientists and physicists-the complex model was specified based on the social science literature, and the simpler model constrained to agree (in core aspects) with the complicated model. PMID:27362836

  1. Modeling glacial climates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    North, G. R.; Crowley, T. J.

    1984-01-01

    Mathematical climate modelling has matured as a discipline to the point that it is useful in paleoclimatology. As an example a new two dimensional energy balance model is described and applied to several problems of current interest. The model includes the seasonal cycle and the detailed land-sea geographical distribution. By examining the changes in the seasonal cycle when external perturbations are forced upon the climate system it is possible to construct hypotheses about the origin of midlatitude ice sheets and polar ice caps. In particular the model predicts a rather sudden potential for glaciation over large areas when the Earth's orbital elements are only slightly altered. Similarly, the drift of continents or the change of atmospheric carbon dioxide over geological time induces radical changes in continental ice cover. With the advance of computer technology and improved understanding of the individual components of the climate system, these ideas will be tested in far more realistic models in the near future.

  2. Modeling ocean circulation

    SciTech Connect

    Semtner, A.J.

    1995-09-08

    Ocean numerical models have become quite realistic over the past several years as a result of improved methods, faster computers, and global data sets. Models now treat basin-scale to global domains while retaining the fine spatial scales that are important for modeling the transport of heat, salt, and other properties over vast distances. Simulations are reproducing observed satellite results on the energetics of strong currents and are properly showing diverse aspects of thermodynamic and dynamic ocean responses ranging from deep-water production of El Nino. Now models can represent not only currents but also the consequences for climate, biology, and geo-chemistry over time spans for months to decades. However, much remains to be understood from models about ocean circulation on longer time scales, including the evolution of the dominant water masses, the predictability of climate, and the ocean`s influence on global change. 34 refs., 6 figs.

  3. Strength Modeling Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Badler, N. I.; Lee, P.; Wong, S.

    1985-01-01

    Strength modeling is a complex and multi-dimensional issue. There are numerous parameters to the problem of characterizing human strength, most notably: (1) position and orientation of body joints; (2) isometric versus dynamic strength; (3) effector force versus joint torque; (4) instantaneous versus steady force; (5) active force versus reactive force; (6) presence or absence of gravity; (7) body somatotype and composition; (8) body (segment) masses; (9) muscle group envolvement; (10) muscle size; (11) fatigue; and (12) practice (training) or familiarity. In surveying the available literature on strength measurement and modeling an attempt was made to examine as many of these parameters as possible. The conclusions reached at this point toward the feasibility of implementing computationally reasonable human strength models. The assessment of accuracy of any model against a specific individual, however, will probably not be possible on any realistic scale. Taken statistically, strength modeling may be an effective tool for general questions of task feasibility and strength requirements.

  4. Linear models: permutation methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cade, B.S.

    2005-01-01

    Permutation tests (see Permutation Based Inference) for the linear model have applications in behavioral studies when traditional parametric assumptions about the error term in a linear model are not tenable. Improved validity of Type I error rates can be achieved with properly constructed permutation tests. Perhaps more importantly, increased statistical power, improved robustness to effects of outliers, and detection of alternative distributional differences can be achieved by coupling permutation inference with alternative linear model estimators. For example, it is well-known that estimates of the mean in linear model are extremely sensitive to even a single outlying value of the dependent variable compared to estimates of the median [7, 19]. Traditionally, linear modeling focused on estimating changes in the center of distributions (means or medians). However, quantile regression allows distributional changes to be estimated in all or any selected part of a distribution or responses, providing a more complete statistical picture that has relevance to many biological questions [6]...

  5. Modeling earthquake dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charpentier, Arthur; Durand, Marilou

    2015-07-01

    In this paper, we investigate questions arising in Parsons and Geist (Bull Seismol Soc Am 102:1-11, 2012). Pseudo causal models connecting magnitudes and waiting times are considered, through generalized regression. We do use conditional model (magnitude given previous waiting time, and conversely) as an extension to joint distribution model described in Nikoloulopoulos and Karlis (Environmetrics 19: 251-269, 2008). On the one hand, we fit a Pareto distribution for earthquake magnitudes, where the tail index is a function of waiting time following previous earthquake; on the other hand, waiting times are modeled using a Gamma or a Weibull distribution, where parameters are functions of the magnitude of the previous earthquake. We use those two models, alternatively, to generate the dynamics of earthquake occurrence, and to estimate the probability of occurrence of several earthquakes within a year or a decade.

  6. Cardiovascular modeling and diagnostics

    SciTech Connect

    Kangas, L.J.; Keller, P.E.; Hashem, S.; Kouzes, R.T.

    1995-12-31

    In this paper, a novel approach to modeling and diagnosing the cardiovascular system is introduced. A model exhibits a subset of the dynamics of the cardiovascular behavior of an individual by using a recurrent artificial neural network. Potentially, a model will be incorporated into a cardiovascular diagnostic system. This approach is unique in that each cardiovascular model is developed from physiological measurements of an individual. Any differences between the modeled variables and the variables of an individual at a given time are used for diagnosis. This approach also exploits sensor fusion to optimize the utilization of biomedical sensors. The advantage of sensor fusion has been demonstrated in applications including control and diagnostics of mechanical and chemical processes.

  7. A Preliminary Jupiter Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hubbard, W. B.; Militzer, B.

    2016-03-01

    In anticipation of new observational results for Jupiter's axial moment of inertia and gravitational zonal harmonic coefficients from the forthcoming Juno orbiter, we present a number of preliminary Jupiter interior models. We combine results from ab initio computer simulations of hydrogen-helium mixtures, including immiscibility calculations, with a new nonperturbative calculation of Jupiter's zonal harmonic coefficients, to derive a self-consistent model for the planet's external gravity and moment of inertia. We assume helium rain modified the interior temperature and composition profiles. Our calculation predicts zonal harmonic values to which measurements can be compared. Although some models fit the observed (pre-Juno) second- and fourth-order zonal harmonics to within their error bars, our preferred reference model predicts a fourth-order zonal harmonic whose absolute value lies above the pre-Juno error bars. This model has a dense core of about 12 Earth masses and a hydrogen-helium-rich envelope with approximately three times solar metallicity.

  8. Fuzzy object modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Udupa, Jayaram K.; Odhner, Dewey; Falcao, Alexandre X.; Ciesielski, Krzysztof C.; Miranda, Paulo A. V.; Vaideeswaran, Pavithra; Mishra, Shipra; Grevera, George J.; Saboury, Babak; Torigian, Drew A.

    2011-03-01

    To make Quantitative Radiology (QR) a reality in routine clinical practice, computerized automatic anatomy recognition (AAR) becomes essential. As part of this larger goal, we present in this paper a novel fuzzy strategy for building bodywide group-wise anatomic models. They have the potential to handle uncertainties and variability in anatomy naturally and to be integrated with the fuzzy connectedness framework for image segmentation. Our approach is to build a family of models, called the Virtual Quantitative Human, representing normal adult subjects at a chosen resolution of the population variables (gender, age). Models are represented hierarchically, the descendents representing organs contained in parent organs. Based on an index of fuzziness of the models, 32 thorax data sets, and 10 organs defined in them, we found that the hierarchical approach to modeling can effectively handle the non-linear relationships in position, scale, and orientation that exist among organs in different patients.

  9. Integrated Environmental Control Model

    1999-09-03

    IECM is a powerful multimedia engineering software program for simulating an integrated coal-fired power plant. It provides a capability to model various conventional and advanced processes for controlling air pollutant emissions from coal-fired power plants before, during, or after combustion. The principal purpose of the model is to calculate the performance, emissions, and cost of power plant configurations employing alternative environmental control methods. The model consists of various control technology modules, which may be integratedmore » into a complete utility plant in any desired combination. In contrast to conventional deterministic models, the IECM offers the unique capability to assign probabilistic values to all model input parameters, and to obtain probabilistic outputs in the form of cumulative distribution functions indicating the likelihood of dofferent costs and performance results. A Graphical Use Interface (GUI) facilitates the configuration of the technologies, entry of data, and retrieval of results.« less

  10. Direct insolation models

    SciTech Connect

    Bird, R.; Hulstrom, R.L.

    1980-01-01

    Several recently published models of the direct component of the broadband insolation are compared for clear sky conditions. The comparison includes seven simple models and one rigorous model that is used as a basis for determining accuracy. Where possible, the comparison is made between the results of each model for each atmospheric constituent (H/sub 2/O, CO/sub 2/, O/sub 3/, O/sub 2/, aerosol and molecular scattering) separately as well as for the combined effect of all of the constituents. Two optimum simple models of varying degrees of complexity are developed as a result of this comparison. The study indicates: aerosols dominate the attenuation of the direct beam for reasonable atmospheric conditions; molecular scattering is next in importance; water vapor is an important absorber; and carbon dioxide and oxygen are relatively unimportant as attenuators of the broadband solar energy.

  11. Varicella infection modeling.

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, Katherine A.; Finley, Patrick D.; Moore, Thomas W.; Nozick, Linda Karen; Martin, Nathaniel; Bandlow, Alisa; Detry, Richard Joseph; Evans, Leland B.; Berger, Taylor Eugen

    2013-09-01

    Infectious diseases can spread rapidly through healthcare facilities, resulting in widespread illness among vulnerable patients. Computational models of disease spread are useful for evaluating mitigation strategies under different scenarios. This report describes two infectious disease models built for the US Department of Veteran Affairs (VA) motivated by a Varicella outbreak in a VA facility. The first model simulates disease spread within a notional contact network representing staff and patients. Several interventions, along with initial infection counts and intervention delay, were evaluated for effectiveness at preventing disease spread. The second model adds staff categories, location, scheduling, and variable contact rates to improve resolution. This model achieved more accurate infection counts and enabled a more rigorous evaluation of comparative effectiveness of interventions.

  12. Nonlinear Beat Cepheid Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kolláth, Z.; Beaulieu, J. P.; Buchler, J. R.; Yecko, P.

    1998-07-01

    The numerical hydrodynamic modeling of beat Cepheid behavior has been a long-standing quest in which purely radiative models have failed miserably. We find that beat pulsations occur naturally when turbulent convection is accounted for in our hydrodynamics codes. The development of a relaxation code and of a Floquet stability analysis greatly facilitates the search for and analysis of beat Cepheid models. The conditions for the occurrence of beat behavior can be understood easily and at a fundamental level with the help of amplitude equations. Here a discriminant \\Dscr arises whose sign decides whether single-mode or double-mode pulsations can occur in a model, and this \\Dscr depends only on the values of the nonlinear coupling coefficients between the fundamental and the first overtone modes. For radiative models \\Dscr is always found to be negative, but with sufficiently strong turbulent convection its sign reverses.

  13. Kalman filter modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, R. G.

    1984-01-01

    The formulation of appropriate state-space models for Kalman filtering applications is studied. The so-called model is completely specified by four matrix parameters and the initial conditions of the recursive equations. Once these are determined, the die is cast, and the way in which the measurements are weighted is determined foreverafter. Thus, finding a model that fits the physical situation at hand is all important. Also, it is often the most difficult aspect of designing a Kalman filter. Formulation of discrete state models from the spectral density and ARMA random process descriptions is discussed. Finally, it is pointed out that many common processes encountered in applied work (such as band-limited white noise) simply do not lend themselves very well to Kalman filter modeling.

  14. XAFS Model Compound Library

    DOE Data Explorer

    Newville, Matthew

    The XAFS Model Compound Library contains XAFS data on model compounds. The term "model" compounds refers to compounds of homogeneous and well-known crystallographic or molecular structure. Each data file in this library has an associated atoms.inp file that can be converted to a feff.inp file using the program ATOMS. (See the related Searchable Atoms.inp Archive at http://cars9.uchicago.edu/~newville/adb/) This Library exists because XAFS data on model compounds is useful for several reasons, including comparing to unknown data for "fingerprinting" and testing calculations and analysis methods. The collection here is currently limited, but is growing. The focus to date has been on inorganic compounds and minerals of interest to the geochemical community. [Copied, with editing, from http://cars9.uchicago.edu/~newville/ModelLib/

  15. Animal Models of Glaucoma

    PubMed Central

    A. Bouhenni, Rachida; Dunmire, Jeffrey; Sewell, Abby; Edward, Deepak P.

    2012-01-01

    Glaucoma is a heterogeneous group of disorders that progressively lead to blindness due to loss of retinal ganglion cells and damage to the optic nerve. It is a leading cause of blindness and visual impairment worldwide. Although research in the field of glaucoma is substantial, the pathophysiologic mechanisms causing the disease are not completely understood. A wide variety of animal models have been used to study glaucoma. These include monkeys, dogs, cats, rodents, and several other species. Although these models have provided valuable information about the disease, there is still no ideal model for studying glaucoma due to its complexity. In this paper we present a summary of most of the animal models that have been developed and used for the study of the different types of glaucoma, the strengths and limitations associated with each species use, and some potential criteria to develop a suitable model. PMID:22665989

  16. Protein Model Database

    SciTech Connect

    Fidelis, K; Adzhubej, A; Kryshtafovych, A; Daniluk, P

    2005-02-23

    The phenomenal success of the genome sequencing projects reveals the power of completeness in revolutionizing biological science. Currently it is possible to sequence entire organisms at a time, allowing for a systemic rather than fractional view of their organization and the various genome-encoded functions. There is an international plan to move towards a similar goal in the area of protein structure. This will not be achieved by experiment alone, but rather by a combination of efforts in crystallography, NMR spectroscopy, and computational modeling. Only a small fraction of structures are expected to be identified experimentally, the remainder to be modeled. Presently there is no organized infrastructure to critically evaluate and present these data to the biological community. The goal of the Protein Model Database project is to create such infrastructure, including (1) public database of theoretically derived protein structures; (2) reliable annotation of protein model quality, (3) novel structure analysis tools, and (4) access to the highest quality modeling techniques available.

  17. Testing bow shock models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alrefay, Thamer; Meziane, Karim; Hamza, A. M.

    2016-07-01

    Space plasmas studies of bow shock dynamics, given the fundamental transport role and impact natural transition boundaries, have continued to attract much interest. With the overwhelming availability of data collected by various space science missions, several empirical models have been put forward to account for the location of the Earth's bow shock. Various solar wind and IMF measured parameters are used to constrain the proposed models published in the literature. For each of these empirical models, the bow shock nose velocity, at the standoff distance, is computed; each of these velocities is then compared with the observed shock speed as determined from a multipoint measurement provided by the Cluster quartet. The present study reveals to what extent the model parameters used are significant and determinant, and suggests that some empirical models are more accurate than others are.

  18. VENTILATION MODEL REPORT

    SciTech Connect

    V. Chipman

    2002-10-31

    The purpose of the Ventilation Model is to simulate the heat transfer processes in and around waste emplacement drifts during periods of forced ventilation. The model evaluates the effects of emplacement drift ventilation on the thermal conditions in the emplacement drifts and surrounding rock mass, and calculates the heat removal by ventilation as a measure of the viability of ventilation to delay the onset of peak repository temperature and reduce its magnitude. The heat removal by ventilation is temporally and spatially dependent, and is expressed as the fraction of heat carried away by the ventilation air compared to the fraction of heat produced by radionuclide decay. One minus the heat removal is called the wall heat fraction, or the remaining amount of heat that is transferred via conduction to the surrounding rock mass. Downstream models, such as the ''Multiscale Thermohydrologic Model'' (BSC 2001), use the wall heat fractions as outputted from the Ventilation Model to initialize their postclosure analyses.

  19. Integrated Workforce Modeling System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moynihan, Gary P.

    2000-01-01

    There are several computer-based systems, currently in various phases of development at KSC, which encompass some component, aspect, or function of workforce modeling. These systems may offer redundant capabilities and/or incompatible interfaces. A systems approach to workforce modeling is necessary in order to identify and better address user requirements. This research has consisted of two primary tasks. Task 1 provided an assessment of existing and proposed KSC workforce modeling systems for their functionality and applicability to the workforce planning function. Task 2 resulted in the development of a proof-of-concept design for a systems approach to workforce modeling. The model incorporates critical aspects of workforce planning, including hires, attrition, and employee development.

  20. LDEF environment modeling updates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gordon, Tim; Rantanen, Ray; Whitaker, Ann F.

    1995-01-01

    An updated gas dynamics model for gas interactions around the LDEF is presented that includes improved scattering algorithms. The primary improvement is more accurate predictions of surface fluxes in the wake region. The code used is the Integrated Spacecraft Environments Model (ISEM). Additionally, initial results of a detailed ISEM prediction model of the Solar Array Passive LDEF Experiment (SAMPLE), A0171, is presented. This model includes details of the A0171 geometry and outgassing characteristics of the many surfaces on the experiment. The detailed model includes the multiple scattering that exists between the ambient atmosphere, LDEF outgassing, and atomic oxygen erosion products. Predictions are made for gas densities, surface fluxes and deposition at three different time periods of the LDEF mission.