Climate-Driven Crop Yield and Yield Variability and Climate Change Impacts on the U.S. Great Plains Agricultural Production.

PubMed

Kukal, Meetpal S; Irmak, Suat

2018-02-22

Climate variability and trends affect global crop yields and are characterized as highly dependent on location, crop type, and irrigation. U.S. Great Plains, due to its significance in national food production, evident climate variability, and extensive irrigation is an ideal region of investigation for climate impacts on food production. This paper evaluates climate impacts on maize, sorghum, and soybean yields and effect of irrigation for individual counties in this region by employing extensive crop yield and climate datasets from 1968-2013. Variability in crop yields was a quarter of the regional average yields, with a quarter of this variability explained by climate variability, and temperature and precipitation explained these in singularity or combination at different locations. Observed temperature trend was beneficial for maize yields, but detrimental for sorghum and soybean yields, whereas observed precipitation trend was beneficial for all three crops. Irrigated yields demonstrated increased robustness and an effective mitigation strategy against climate impacts than their non-irrigated counterparts by a considerable fraction. The information, data, and maps provided can serve as an assessment guide for planners, managers, and policy- and decision makers to prioritize agricultural resilience efforts and resource allocation or re-allocation in the regions that exhibit risk from climate variability.

A quality assessment of the MARS crop yield forecasting system for the European Union

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Velde, Marijn; Bareuth, Bettina

2015-04-01

Timely information on crop production forecasts can become of increasing importance as commodity markets are more and more interconnected. Impacts across large crop production areas due to (e.g.) extreme weather and pest outbreaks can create ripple effects that may affect food prices and availability elsewhere. The MARS Unit (Monitoring Agricultural ResourceS), DG Joint Research Centre, European Commission, has been providing forecasts of European crop production levels since 1993. The operational crop production forecasting is carried out with the MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (M-CYFS). The M-CYFS is used to monitor crop growth development, evaluate short-term effects of anomalous meteorological events, and provide monthly forecasts of crop yield at national and European Union level. The crop production forecasts are published in the so-called MARS bulletins. Forecasting crop yield over large areas in the operational context requires quality benchmarks. Here we present an analysis of the accuracy and skill of past crop yield forecasts of the main crops (e.g. soft wheat, grain maize), throughout the growing season, and specifically for the final forecast before harvest. Two simple benchmarks to assess the skill of the forecasts were defined as comparing the forecasts to 1) a forecast equal to the average yield and 2) a forecast using a linear trend established through the crop yield time-series. These reveal a variability in performance as a function of crop and Member State. In terms of production, the yield forecasts of 67% of the EU-28 soft wheat production and 80% of the EU-28 maize production have been forecast superior to both benchmarks during the 1993-2013 period. In a changing and increasingly variable climate crop yield forecasts can become increasingly valuable - provided they are used wisely. We end our presentation by discussing research activities that could contribute to this goal.

Drought effects on US maize and soybean production: spatiotemporal patterns and historical changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zipper, Samuel C.; Qiu, Jiangxiao; Kucharik, Christopher J.

2016-09-01

Maximizing agricultural production on existing cropland is one pillar of meeting future global food security needs. To close crop yield gaps, it is critical to understand how climate extremes such as drought impact yield. Here, we use gridded, daily meteorological data and county-level annual yield data to quantify meteorological drought sensitivity of US maize and soybean production from 1958 to 2007. Meteorological drought negatively affects crop yield over most US crop-producing areas, and yield is most sensitive to short-term (1-3 month) droughts during critical development periods from July to August. While meteorological drought is associated with 13% of overall yield variability, substantial spatial variability in drought effects and sensitivity exists, with central and southeastern US becoming increasingly sensitive to drought over time. Our study illustrates fine-scale spatiotemporal patterns of drought effects, highlighting where variability in crop production is most strongly associated with drought, and suggests that management strategies that buffer against short-term water stress may be most effective at sustaining long-term crop productivity.

How seasonal temperature or water inputs affect the relative response of C3 crops to elevated [CO2]: A global analysis of open top chamber and Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) studies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) has the potential to positively impact C3 food crop production by directly stimulating photosynthetic carbon gain (A), which feeds forward to increase crop biomass and yield. Further stimulation of A and yield can result from an indirect mechan...

Crop yields response to water pressures in the Ebro basin in Spain: risk and water policy implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiroga, S.; Fernández-Haddad, Z.; Iglesias, A.

2011-02-01

The increasing pressure on water systems in the Mediterranean enhances existing water conflicts and threatens water supply for agriculture. In this context, one of the main priorities for agricultural research and public policy is the adaptation of crop yields to water pressures. This paper focuses on the evaluation of hydrological risk and water policy implications for food production. Our methodological approach includes four steps. For the first step, we estimate the impacts of rainfall and irrigation water on crop yields. However, this study is not limited to general crop production functions since it also considers the linkages between those economic and biophysical aspects which may have an important effect on crop productivity. We use statistical models of yield response to address how hydrological variables affect the yield of the main Mediterranean crops in the Ebro river basin. In the second step, this study takes into consideration the effects of those interactions and analyzes gross value added sensitivity to crop production changes. We then use Montecarlo simulations to characterize crop yield risk to water variability. Finally we evaluate some policy scenarios with irrigated area adjustments that could cope in a context of increased water scarcity. A substantial decrease in irrigated land, of up to 30% of total, results in only moderate losses of crop productivity. The response is crop and region specific and may serve to prioritise adaptation strategies.

Negative impacts of climate change on cereal yields: statistical evidence from France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gammans, Matthew; Mérel, Pierre; Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel

2017-05-01

In several world regions, climate change is predicted to negatively affect crop productivity. The recent statistical yield literature emphasizes the importance of flexibly accounting for the distribution of growing-season temperature to better represent the effects of warming on crop yields. We estimate a flexible statistical yield model using a long panel from France to investigate the impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on wheat and barley yields. Winter varieties appear sensitive to extreme cold after planting. All yields respond negatively to an increase in spring-summer temperatures and are a decreasing function of precipitation about historical precipitation levels. Crop yields are predicted to be negatively affected by climate change under a wide range of climate models and emissions scenarios. Under warming scenario RCP8.5 and holding growing areas and technology constant, our model ensemble predicts a 21.0% decline in winter wheat yield, a 17.3% decline in winter barley yield, and a 33.6% decline in spring barley yield by the end of the century. Uncertainty from climate projections dominates uncertainty from the statistical model. Finally, our model predicts that continuing technology trends would counterbalance most of the effects of climate change.

[Main interspecific competition and land productivity of fruit-crop intercropping in Loess Region of West Shauxi].

PubMed

Yun, Lei; Bi, Hua-Xing; Tian, Xiao-Ling; Cui, Zhe-Wei; Zhou, Hui-Zi; Gao, Lu-Bo; Liu, Li-Xia

2011-05-01

Taking the four typical fruit-crop intercropping models, i.e., walnut-peanut, walnut-soybean, apple-peanut, and apple-soybean, in the Loess Region of western Shanxi Province as the objects, this paper analyzed the crop (peanut and soybean) photosynthetic active radiation (PAR), net photosynthetic rate (P(n)), yield, and soil moisture content. Comparing with crop monoculture, fruit-crop intercropping decreased the crop PAR and P(n). The smaller the distance from tree rows, the smaller the crop PAR and P(n). There was a significantly positive correlation between the P(n) and crop yield, suggesting that illumination was one of the key factors affecting crop yield. From the whole trend, the 0-100 cm soil moisture content had no significant differences between walnut-crop intercropping systems and corresponding monoculture cropping systems, but had significant differences between apple-crop intercropping systems and corresponding monoculture cropping systems, indicating that the competition for soil moisture was more intense in apple-crop intercropping systems than in walnut-crop intercropping systems. Comparing with monoculture, fruit-crop intercropping increased the land use efficiency and economic benefit averagely by 70% and 14%, respectively, and walnut-crop intercropping was much better than apple-crop intercropping. To increase the crop yield in fruit-crop intercropping systems, the following strategies should be taken: strengthening the management of irrigation and fertilization, increasing the distances or setting root barriers between crop and tree rows, regularly and properly pruning, and planting shade-tolerant crops in intercropping.

Nutritional composition and in vitro digestibility of grass and legume winter (cover) crops.

PubMed

Brown, A N; Ferreira, G; Teets, C L; Thomason, W E; Teutsch, C D

2018-03-01

In dairy farming systems, growing winter crops for forage is frequently limited to annual grasses grown in monoculture. The objectives of this study were to determine how cropping grasses alone or in mixtures with legumes affects the yield, nutritional composition, and in vitro digestibility of fresh and ensiled winter crops and the yield, nutritional composition, and in vitro digestibility of the subsequent summer crops. Experimental plots were planted with 15 different winter crops at 3 locations in Virginia. At each site, 4 plots of each treatment were planted in a randomized complete block design. The 15 treatments included 5 winter annual grasses [barley (BA), ryegrass (RG), rye (RY), triticale (TR), and wheat (WT)] in monoculture [i.e., no legumes (NO)] or with 1 of 2 winter annual legumes [crimson clover (CC) and hairy vetch (HV)]. After harvesting the winter crops, corn and forage sorghum were planted within the same plots perpendicular to the winter crop plantings. The nutritional composition and the in vitro digestibility of winter and summer crops were determined for fresh and ensiled samples. Growing grasses in mixtures with CC increased forage dry matter (DM) yield (2.84 Mg/ha), but the yield of mixtures with HV (2.47 Mg/ha) was similar to that of grasses grown in monoculture (2.40 Mg/ha). Growing grasses in mixtures with legumes increased the crude protein concentration of the fresh forage from 13.0% to 15.5% for CC and to 17.3% for HV. For neutral detergent fiber (NDF) concentrations, the interaction between grasses and legumes was significant for both fresh and ensiled forages. Growing BA, RY, and TR in mixtures with legumes decreased NDF concentrations, whereas growing RG and WT with legumes did not affect the NDF concentrations of either the fresh or the ensiled forages. Growing grasses in mixtures with legumes decreased the concentration of sugars of fresh forages relative to grasses grown in monoculture. Primarily, this decrease can be attributed to low concentrations of sugars of mixtures with HV (10.5%). Growing grasses in mixtures with legumes reduced the fiber digestibility of both winter crops (75.7% to 72.8% NDF). Growing grasses in mixtures with legumes did not affect estimated DM yield, nutritional composition, or digestibility of the succeeding summer crops. In conclusion, growing grasses in mixtures with legumes as winter forage crops can increase forage estimated DM yields and its nutritional quality in dairy farming sytems. Copyright © 2018 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The potential of cover crops for improving soil function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoate, Chris; Crotty, Felicity

2017-04-01

Cover crops can be grown over the autumn and winter ensuring green cover throughout the year. They have been described as improving soil structure, reducing soil erosion and potentially even a form of grass weed control. These crops retain nutrients within the plant, potentially making them available for future crops, as well as increasing soil organic matter. Over the last three years, we have investigated how different cover crop regimes affect soil quality. Three separate experiments over each autumn/winter period have investigated how different cover crops affect soil biology, physics and chemistry, with each experiment building on the previous one. There have been significant effects of cover crops on soil structure, as well as significantly lower weed biomass and increased yields in the following crop - in comparison to bare stubble. For example, the effect of drilling the cover crops on soil structure in comparison to a bare stubble control that had not been driven on by machinery was quantified, and over the winter period the soil structure of the cover crop treatments changed, with compaction reduced in the cover crop treatments, whilst the bare stubble control remained unchanged. Weeds were found in significantly lower biomass in the cover crop mixes in comparison to the bare stubble control, and significantly lower weed biomass continued to be found in the following spring oat crop where the cover crops had been, indicating a weed suppressive effect that has a continued legacy in the following crop. The following spring oats have shown similar results in the last two years, with higher yields in the previous cover crop areas compared to the bare stubble controls. Overall, these results are indicating that cover crops have the potential to provide improvements to soil quality, reduce weeds and improve yields. We discuss the economic implications.

Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.

2015-01-01

Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

Evaluation of seeding depth and guage-wheel load effects on maize emergence and yield

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Planting represents perhaps the most important field operation with errors likely to negatively affect crop yield and thereby farm profitability. Performance of row-crop planters are evaluated by their ability to accurately place seeds into the soil at an adequate and pre-determined depth, the goal ...

Quantifying the impacts of climatic trend and fluctuation on crop yields in northern China.

PubMed

Qiao, Jianmin; Yu, Deyong; Liu, Yupeng

2017-10-01

Climate change plays a critical role in crop yield variations, which has attracted a great deal of concern worldwide. However, the mechanisms of how climatic trend and fluctuations affect crop yields are not well understood and need to be further investigated. Thus, using the GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model, we simulated the yields of major crops (i.e., wheat, maize, and rice) and evaluated the impacts of climatic factors on crop yields in the Agro-Pastoral Transitional Zone (APTZ) of northern China between 1980 and 2010. The partial least squares regression model was used to assess the contribution rates of climatic factors (i.e., precipitation, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), minimum temperature (T min ), maximum temperature (T max )) to the variation of crop yields. The Breaks for Additive Season and Trend (BFAST) model was adopted to decompose the climate factors into trend and fluctuation components, and the relative contributions of climate trend and fluctuation were then evaluated. The results indicated that the contributions of climatic factors to yield variations of wheat, maize, and rice were 31.7, 37.7, and 23.1%, respectively. That is, climate change had larger impacts on maize than wheat and rice. More cultivated areas were significantly and positively correlated with precipitation than with other climatic factors due to the limited precipitation in the APTZ. Also, climatic trend component had positive impacts on crop yields in the whole region, whereas the climate fluctuation was associated mainly with the areas where the crop yields decreased. This study helps improve our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change impacts on crop yields, and provides useful scientific information for designing regional-scale strategies of adaptation to climate change.

Changes in rainfed and irrigated crop yield response to climate in the western US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Troy, T. J.

2018-06-01

As the global population increases and the climate changes, ensuring a secure food supply is increasingly important. One strategy is irrigation, which allows for crops to be grown outside their optimal climate growing regions and which buffers against climate variability. Although irrigation is a positive climate adaptation mechanism for agriculture, it has a potentially negative effect on water resources as it can lead to groundwater depletion and diminished surface water supplies. This study quantifies how crop yields are affected by climate variability and extremes and the impact of irrigation on crop yield increases under various growing-season climate conditions. To do this, we use historical climate data and county-level rainfed and irrigated crop yields for maize, soybean, winter and spring wheat over the US to analyze the relationship between climate, crop yields, and irrigation. We find that there are optimal climates, specific to each crop, where irrigation provides a benefit and other conditions where irrigation proves to have marginal, if any, benefits. Furthermore, the relationship between crop yields and climate has changed over the last decades, with a changing sensitivity in the relationship of soybean and winter wheat yields to certain climate variables, like crop reference evapotranspiration. These two conclusions have important implications for agricultural and water resource system planning, as it implies there are more optimal climate conditions where irrigation is particularly productive and regions where irrigation should be reconsidered as there is not a significant agricultural benefit and the water could be used more productively.

Contribution of insect pollinators to crop yield and quality varies with agricultural intensification

PubMed Central

Potts, Simon G.; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Vaissière, Bernard E.; Woyciechowski, Michal; Krewenka, Kristin M.; Tscheulin, Thomas; Roberts, Stuart P.M.; Szentgyörgyi, Hajnalka; Westphal, Catrin; Bommarco, Riccardo

2014-01-01

Background. Up to 75% of crop species benefit at least to some degree from animal pollination for fruit or seed set and yield. However, basic information on the level of pollinator dependence and pollinator contribution to yield is lacking for many crops. Even less is known about how insect pollination affects crop quality. Given that habitat loss and agricultural intensification are known to decrease pollinator richness and abundance, there is a need to assess the consequences for different components of crop production. Methods. We used pollination exclusion on flowers or inflorescences on a whole plant basis to assess the contribution of insect pollination to crop yield and quality in four flowering crops (spring oilseed rape, field bean, strawberry, and buckwheat) located in four regions of Europe. For each crop, we recorded abundance and species richness of flower visiting insects in ten fields located along a gradient from simple to heterogeneous landscapes. Results. Insect pollination enhanced average crop yield between 18 and 71% depending on the crop. Yield quality was also enhanced in most crops. For instance, oilseed rape had higher oil and lower chlorophyll contents when adequately pollinated, the proportion of empty seeds decreased in buckwheat, and strawberries’ commercial grade improved; however, we did not find higher nitrogen content in open pollinated field beans. Complex landscapes had a higher overall species richness of wild pollinators across crops, but visitation rates were only higher in complex landscapes for some crops. On the contrary, the overall yield was consistently enhanced by higher visitation rates, but not by higher pollinator richness. Discussion. For the four crops in this study, there is clear benefit delivered by pollinators on yield quantity and/or quality, but it is not maximized under current agricultural intensification. Honeybees, the most abundant pollinator, might partially compensate the loss of wild pollinators in some areas, but our results suggest the need of landscape-scale actions to enhance wild pollinator populations. PMID:24749007

Contribution of insect pollinators to crop yield and quality varies with agricultural intensification.

PubMed

Bartomeus, Ignasi; Potts, Simon G; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Vaissière, Bernard E; Woyciechowski, Michal; Krewenka, Kristin M; Tscheulin, Thomas; Roberts, Stuart P M; Szentgyörgyi, Hajnalka; Westphal, Catrin; Bommarco, Riccardo

2014-01-01

Background. Up to 75% of crop species benefit at least to some degree from animal pollination for fruit or seed set and yield. However, basic information on the level of pollinator dependence and pollinator contribution to yield is lacking for many crops. Even less is known about how insect pollination affects crop quality. Given that habitat loss and agricultural intensification are known to decrease pollinator richness and abundance, there is a need to assess the consequences for different components of crop production. Methods. We used pollination exclusion on flowers or inflorescences on a whole plant basis to assess the contribution of insect pollination to crop yield and quality in four flowering crops (spring oilseed rape, field bean, strawberry, and buckwheat) located in four regions of Europe. For each crop, we recorded abundance and species richness of flower visiting insects in ten fields located along a gradient from simple to heterogeneous landscapes. Results. Insect pollination enhanced average crop yield between 18 and 71% depending on the crop. Yield quality was also enhanced in most crops. For instance, oilseed rape had higher oil and lower chlorophyll contents when adequately pollinated, the proportion of empty seeds decreased in buckwheat, and strawberries' commercial grade improved; however, we did not find higher nitrogen content in open pollinated field beans. Complex landscapes had a higher overall species richness of wild pollinators across crops, but visitation rates were only higher in complex landscapes for some crops. On the contrary, the overall yield was consistently enhanced by higher visitation rates, but not by higher pollinator richness. Discussion. For the four crops in this study, there is clear benefit delivered by pollinators on yield quantity and/or quality, but it is not maximized under current agricultural intensification. Honeybees, the most abundant pollinator, might partially compensate the loss of wild pollinators in some areas, but our results suggest the need of landscape-scale actions to enhance wild pollinator populations.

Crop production and economic loss due to wind erosion in hot arid ecosystem of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santra, Priyabrata; Moharana, P. C.; Kumar, Mahesh; Soni, M. L.; Pandey, C. B.; Chaudhari, S. K.; Sikka, A. K.

2017-10-01

Wind erosion is a severe land degradation process in hot arid western India and affects the agricultural production system. It affects crop yield directly by damaging the crops through abrasion, burial, dust deposition etc. and indirectly by reducing soil fertility. In this study, an attempt was made to quantify the indirect impact of wind erosion process on crop production loss and associated economic loss in hot arid ecosystem of India. It has been observed that soil loss due to wind erosion varies from minimum 1.3 t ha-1 to maximum 83.3 t ha-1 as per the severity. Yield loss due to wind erosion was found maximum for groundnut (Arachis hypogea) (5-331 kg ha-1 yr-1), whereas minimum for moth bean (Vigna aconitifolia) (1-93 kg ha-1 yr-1). For pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum), which covers a major portion of arable lands in western Rajasthan, the yield loss was found 3-195 kg ha-1 yr-1. Economic loss was found higher for groundnut and clusterbean (Cyamopsis tetragonoloba) than rest crops, which are about

Impacts of extreme heat and drought on crop yields in China: an assessment by using the DLEM-AG2 model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Yang, J.; Pan, S.; Tian, H.

2016-12-01

China is not only one of the major agricultural production countries with the largest population in the world, but it is also the most susceptible to climate change and extreme events. Much concern has been raised about how extreme climate has affected crop yield, which is crucial for China's food supply security. However, the quantitative assessment of extreme heat and drought impacts on crop yield in China has rarely been investigated. By using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM-AG2), a highly integrated process-based ecosystem model with crop-specific simulation, here we quantified spatial and temporal patterns of extreme climatic heat and drought stress and their impacts on the yields of major food crops (rice, wheat, maize, and soybean) across China during 1981-2015, and further investigated the underlying mechanisms. Simulated results showed that extreme heat and drought stress significantly reduced national cereal production and increased the yield gaps between potential yield and rain-fed yield. The drought stress was the primary factor to reduce crop yields in the semi-arid and arid regions, and extreme heat stress slightly aggravated the yield loss. The yield gap between potential yield and rain-fed yield was larger at locations with lower precipitation. Our results suggest that a large exploitable yield gap in response to extreme climatic heat-drought stress offers an opportunity to increase productivity in China by optimizing agronomic practices, such as irrigation, fertilizer use, sowing density, and sowing date.

Shaping an Optimal Soil by Root-Soil Interaction.

PubMed

Jin, Kemo; White, Philip J; Whalley, William R; Shen, Jianbo; Shi, Lei

2017-10-01

Crop production depends on the availability of water and mineral nutrients, and increased yields might be facilitated by a greater focus on roots-soil interactions. Soil properties affecting plant growth include drought, compaction, nutrient deficiency, mineral toxicity, salinity, and submergence. Plant roots respond to the soil environment both spatially and temporally by avoiding stressful soil environments and proliferating in more favorable environments. We observe that crops can be bred for specific root architectural and biochemical traits that facilitate soil exploration and resource acquisition, enabling greater crop yields. These root traits affect soil physical and chemical properties and might be utilized to improve the soil for subsequent crops. We argue that optimizing root-soil interactions is a prerequisite for future food security. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk of water scarcity and water policy implications for crop production in the Ebro Basin in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiroga, S.; Fernández-Haddad, Z.; Iglesias, A.

2010-08-01

The increasing pressure on water systems in the Mediterranean enhances existing water conflicts and threatens water supply for agriculture. In this context, one of the main priorities for agricultural research and public policy is the adaptation of crop yields to water pressures. This paper focuses on the evaluation of hydrological risk and water policy implications for food production. Our methodological approach includes four steps. For the first step, we estimate the impacts of rainfall and irrigation water on crop yields. However, this study is not limited to general crop production functions since it also considers the linkages between those economic and biophysical aspects which may have an important effect on crop productivity. We use statistical models of yield response to address how hydrological variables affect the yield of the main Mediterranean crops in the Ebro River Basin. In the second step, this study takes into consideration the effects of those interactions and analyzes gross value added sensitivity to crop production changes. We then use Montecarlo simulations to characterize crop yield risk to water variability. Finally we evaluate some policy scenarios with irrigated area adjustments that could cope in a context of increased water scarcity. A substantial decrease in irrigated land, of up to 30% of total, results in only moderate losses of crop productivity. The response is crop and region specific and may serve to prioritise adaptation strategies.

Understanding the Changes in Global Crop Yields Through Changes in Climate and Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafi, Ehsan; Devineni, Naresh; Khanbilvardi, Reza M.; Kogan, Felix

2018-03-01

During the last few decades, the global agricultural production has risen and technology enhancement is still contributing to yield growth. However, population growth, water crisis, deforestation, and climate change threaten the global food security. An understanding of the variables that caused past changes in crop yields can help improve future crop prediction models. In this article, we present a comprehensive global analysis of the changes in the crop yields and how they relate to different large-scale and regional climate variables, climate change variables and technology in a unified framework. A new multilevel model for yield prediction at the country level is developed and demonstrated. The structural relationships between average yield and climate attributes as well as trends are estimated simultaneously. All countries are modeled in a single multilevel model with partial pooling to automatically group and reduce estimation uncertainties. El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO), Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), geopotential height anomalies (GPH), historical carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and country-based time series of GDP per capita as an approximation of technology measurement are used as predictors to estimate annual agricultural crop yields for each country from 1961 to 2013. Results indicate that these variables can explain the variability in historical crop yields for most of the countries and the model performs well under out-of-sample verifications. While some countries were not generally affected by climatic factors, PDSI and GPH acted both positively and negatively in different regions for crop yields in many countries.

Engineering crop nutrient efficiency for sustainable agriculture.

PubMed

Chen, Liyu; Liao, Hong

2017-10-01

Increasing crop yields can provide food, animal feed, bioenergy feedstocks and biomaterials to meet increasing global demand; however, the methods used to increase yield can negatively affect sustainability. For example, application of excess fertilizer can generate and maintain high yields but also increases input costs and contributes to environmental damage through eutrophication, soil acidification and air pollution. Improving crop nutrient efficiency can improve agricultural sustainability by increasing yield while decreasing input costs and harmful environmental effects. Here, we review the mechanisms of nutrient efficiency (primarily for nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and iron) and breeding strategies for improving this trait, along with the role of regulation of gene expression in enhancing crop nutrient efficiency to increase yields. We focus on the importance of root system architecture to improve nutrient acquisition efficiency, as well as the contributions of mineral translocation, remobilization and metabolic efficiency to nutrient utilization efficiency. © 2017 Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

A comprehensively quantitative method of evaluating the impact of drought on crop yield using daily multi-scale SPEI and crop growth process model.

PubMed

Wang, Qianfeng; Wu, Jianjun; Li, Xiaohan; Zhou, Hongkui; Yang, Jianhua; Geng, Guangpo; An, Xueli; Liu, Leizhen; Tang, Zhenghong

2017-04-01

The quantitative evaluation of the impact of drought on crop yield is one of the most important aspects in agricultural water resource management. To assess the impact of drought on wheat yield, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) crop growth model and daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which is based on daily meteorological data, are adopted in the Huang Huai Hai Plain. The winter wheat crop yields are estimated at 28 stations, after calibrating the cultivar coefficients based on the experimental site data, and SPEI data was taken 11 times across the growth season from 1981 to 2010. The relationship between estimated yield and multi-scale SPEI were analyzed. The optimum time scale SPEI to monitor drought during the crop growth period was determined. The reference yield was determined by averaging the yields from numerous non-drought years. From this data, we propose a comprehensive quantitative method which can be used to predict the impact of drought on wheat yields by combining the daily multi-scale SPEI and crop growth process model. This method was tested in the Huang Huai Hai Plain. The results suggested that estimation of calibrated EPIC was a good predictor of crop yield in the Huang Huai Hai Plain, with lower RMSE (15.4 %) between estimated yield and observed yield at six agrometeorological stations. The soil moisture at planting time was affected by the precipitation and evapotranspiration during the previous 90 days (about 3 months) in the Huang Huai Hai Plain. SPEI G90 was adopted as the optimum time scale SPEI to identify the drought and non-drought years, and identified a drought year in 2000. The water deficit in the year 2000 was significant, and the rate of crop yield reduction did not completely correspond with the volume of water deficit. Our proposed comprehensive method which quantitatively evaluates the impact of drought on crop yield is reliable. The results of this study further our understanding why the adoption of counter measures against drought is important and direct farmers to choose drought-resistant crops.

Management of Lesion Nematodes and Potato Early Dying with Rotation Crops

PubMed Central

LaMondia, J.A.

2006-01-01

Soil-incorporated rotation/green manure crops were evaluated for management of potato early dying caused by Verticillium dahliae and Pratylenchus penetrans. After two years of rotation/green manure and a subsequent potato crop, P. penetrans numbers were less after ‘Saia’ oat/‘Polynema’ marigold, ‘Triple S’ sorghum-sudangrass, or ‘Garry’ oat than ‘Superior’ potato or ‘Humus’ rapeseed. The area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) for early dying was lowest after Saia oat/marigold, and tuber yields were greater than continuous potato after all crops except sorghum-sudangrass. Saia oat/marigold crops resulted in the greatest tuber yields. After one year of rotation/green manure, a marigold crop increased tuber yields and reduced AUDPC and P. penetrans. In the second potato crop after a single year of rotation, plots previously planted to marigolds had reduced P. penetrans densities and AUDPC and increased tuber yield. Rapeseed supported more P. penetrans than potato, but had greater yields. After two years of rotation/green manure crops and a subsequent potato crop, continuous potato had the highest AUDPC and lowest tuber weight. Rotation with Saia oats (2 yr) and Rudbeckia hirta (1 yr) reduced P. penetrans and increased tuber yields. AUDPC was lowest after R. hirta. Two years of sorghum-sudangrass did not affect P. penetrans, tuber yield or AUDPC. These results demonstrate that P. penetrans may be reduced by one or two years of rotation to non-host or antagonistic plants such as Saia oat, Polynema marigold, or R. hirta and that nematode control may reduce the severity of potato early dying. PMID:19259461

Nut crop yield records show that budbreak-based chilling requirements may not reflect yield decline chill thresholds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, Katherine S.; Dose, Volker; Da Silva, David; Brown, Patrick H.; DeJong, Theodore M.

2015-06-01

Warming winters due to climate change may critically affect temperate tree species. Insufficiently cold winters are thought to result in fewer viable flower buds and the subsequent development of fewer fruits or nuts, decreasing the yield of an orchard or fecundity of a species. The best existing approximation for a threshold of sufficient cold accumulation, the "chilling requirement" of a species or variety, has been quantified by manipulating or modeling the conditions that result in dormant bud breaking. However, the physiological processes that affect budbreak are not the same as those that determine yield. This study sought to test whether budbreak-based chilling thresholds can reasonably approximate the thresholds that affect yield, particularly regarding the potential impacts of climate change on temperate tree crop yields. County-wide yield records for almond ( Prunus dulcis), pistachio ( Pistacia vera), and walnut ( Juglans regia) in the Central Valley of California were compared with 50 years of weather records. Bayesian nonparametric function estimation was used to model yield potentials at varying amounts of chill accumulation. In almonds, average yields occurred when chill accumulation was close to the budbreak-based chilling requirement. However, in the other two crops, pistachios and walnuts, the best previous estimate of the budbreak-based chilling requirements was 19-32 % higher than the chilling accumulations associated with average or above average yields. This research indicates that physiological processes beyond requirements for budbreak should be considered when estimating chill accumulation thresholds of yield decline and potential impacts of climate change.

Spatial and Temporal Uncertainty of Crop Yield Aggregations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Porwollik, Vera; Mueller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Iizumi, Toshichika; Ray, Deepak K.; Ruane, Alex C.; Arneth, Almut; Balkovic, Juraj; Ciais, Philippe;

Estimating crop yields and crop evapotranspiration distributions from remote sensing and geospatial agricultural data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, T.; McLaughlin, D.

2017-12-01

Growing more crops to provide a secure food supply to an increasing global population will further stress land and water resources that have already been significantly altered by agriculture. The connection between production and resource use depends on crop yields and unit evapotranspiration (UET) rates that vary greatly, over both time and space. For regional and global analyses of food security it is appropriate to treat yield and UET as uncertain variables conditioned on climatic and soil properties. This study describes how probability distributions of these variables can be estimated by combining remotely sensed land use and evapotranspiration data with in situ agronomic and soils data, all available at different resolutions and coverages. The results reveal the influence of water and temperature stress on crop yield at large spatial scales. They also provide a basis for stochastic modeling and optimization procedures that explicitly account for uncertainty in the environmental factors that affect food production.

Sensitivity and requirement of improvements of four soybean crop simulation models for climate change studies in Southern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battisti, R.; Sentelhas, P. C.; Boote, K. J.

2017-12-01

Crop growth models have many uncertainties that affect the yield response to climate change. Based on that, the aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of crop models to systematic changes in climate for simulating soybean attainable yield in Southern Brazil. Four crop models were used to simulate yields: AQUACROP, MONICA, DSSAT, and APSIM, as well as their ensemble. The simulations were performed considering changes of air temperature (0, + 1.5, + 3.0, + 4.5, and + 6.0 °C), [CO2] (380, 480, 580, 680, and 780 ppm), rainfall (- 30, - 15, 0, + 15, and + 30%), and solar radiation (- 15, 0, + 15), applied to daily values. The baseline climate was from 1961 to 2014, totalizing 53 crop seasons. The crop models simulated a reduction of attainable yield with temperature increase, reaching 2000 kg ha-1 for the ensemble at + 6 °C, mainly due to shorter crop cycle. For rainfall, the yield had a higher rate of reduction when it was diminished than when rainfall was increased. The crop models increased yield variability when solar radiation was changed from - 15 to + 15%, whereas [CO2] rise resulted in yield gains, following an asymptotic response, with a mean increase of 31% from 380 to 680 ppm. The models used require further attention to improvements in optimal and maximum cardinal temperature for development rate; runoff, water infiltration, deep drainage, and dynamic of root growth; photosynthesis parameters related to soil water availability; and energy balance of soil-plant system to define leaf temperature under elevated CO2.

Sensitivity and requirement of improvements of four soybean crop simulation models for climate change studies in Southern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battisti, R.; Sentelhas, P. C.; Boote, K. J.

2018-05-01

Crop growth models have many uncertainties that affect the yield response to climate change. Based on that, the aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of crop models to systematic changes in climate for simulating soybean attainable yield in Southern Brazil. Four crop models were used to simulate yields: AQUACROP, MONICA, DSSAT, and APSIM, as well as their ensemble. The simulations were performed considering changes of air temperature (0, + 1.5, + 3.0, + 4.5, and + 6.0 °C), [CO2] (380, 480, 580, 680, and 780 ppm), rainfall (- 30, - 15, 0, + 15, and + 30%), and solar radiation (- 15, 0, + 15), applied to daily values. The baseline climate was from 1961 to 2014, totalizing 53 crop seasons. The crop models simulated a reduction of attainable yield with temperature increase, reaching 2000 kg ha-1 for the ensemble at + 6 °C, mainly due to shorter crop cycle. For rainfall, the yield had a higher rate of reduction when it was diminished than when rainfall was increased. The crop models increased yield variability when solar radiation was changed from - 15 to + 15%, whereas [CO2] rise resulted in yield gains, following an asymptotic response, with a mean increase of 31% from 380 to 680 ppm. The models used require further attention to improvements in optimal and maximum cardinal temperature for development rate; runoff, water infiltration, deep drainage, and dynamic of root growth; photosynthesis parameters related to soil water availability; and energy balance of soil-plant system to define leaf temperature under elevated CO2.

Effects of peanut stand uniformity and herbicide regime on weed management and yield

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Crop stand directly affects ability of any crop to compete with weeds. To capture this form of cultural weed control, final crop stands need to be uniform. Peanut stands are frequently non-uniform, despite the use of precision vacuum planters. Trials were conducted from 2009 through 2011 in Tifto...

Effects of ditch-buried straw return on water percolation, nitrogen leaching and crop yields in a rice-wheat rotation system.

PubMed

Yang, Haishui; Xu, Mingmin; Koide, Roger T; Liu, Qian; Dai, Yajun; Liu, Ling; Bian, Xinmin

2016-03-15

Crop residue management and nitrogen loss are two important environmental problems in the rice-wheat rotation system in China. This study investigated the effects of burial of straw on water percolation, nitrogen loss by leaching, crop growth and yield. Greenhouse mesocosm experiments were conducted over the course of three simulated cropping seasons in a rice1-wheat-rice2 rotation. Greater amounts of straw resulted in more water percolation, irrespective of crop season. Burial at 20 and 35 cm significantly reduced, but burial at 50 cm increased nitrogen leaching. Straw at 500 kg ha(-1) reduced, but at 1000 kg ha(-1) and at 1500 kg ha(-1) straw increased nitrogen leaching in three consecutive crop rotations. In addition, straw at 500 kg ha(-1) buried at 35 cm significantly increased yield and its components for both crops. This study suggests that N losses via leaching from the rice-wheat rotation may be reduced by the burial of the appropriate amount of straw at the appropriate depth. Greater amounts of buried straw, however, may promote nitrogen leaching and negatively affect crop growth and yields. Complementary field experiments must be performed to make specific agronomic recommendations. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

Remote-sensing-based rapid assessment of flood crop loss to support USDA flooding decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di, L.; Yu, G.; Yang, Z.; Hipple, J.; Shrestha, R.

2016-12-01

Floods often cause significant crop loss in the United States. Timely and objective assessment of flood-related crop loss is very important for crop monitoring and risk management in agricultural and disaster-related decision-making in USDA. Among all flood-related information, crop yield loss is particularly important. Decision on proper mitigation, relief, and monetary compensation relies on it. Currently USDA mostly relies on field surveys to obtain crop loss information and compensate farmers' loss claim. Such methods are expensive, labor intensive, and time consumptive, especially for a large flood that affects a large geographic area. Recent studies have demonstrated that Earth observation (EO) data are useful in post-flood crop loss assessment for a large geographic area objectively, timely, accurately, and cost effectively. There are three stages of flood damage assessment, including rapid assessment, early recovery assessment, and in-depth assessment. EO-based flood assessment methods currently rely on the time-series of vegetation index to assess the yield loss. Such methods are suitable for in-depth assessment but are less suitable for rapid assessment since the after-flood vegetation index time series is not available. This presentation presents a new EO-based method for the rapid assessment of crop yield loss immediately after a flood event to support the USDA flood decision making. The method is based on the historic records of flood severity, flood duration, flood date, crop type, EO-based both before- and immediate-after-flood crop conditions, and corresponding crop yield loss. It hypotheses that a flood of same severity occurring at the same pheonological stage of a crop will cause the similar damage to the crop yield regardless the flood years. With this hypothesis, a regression-based rapid assessment algorithm can be developed by learning from historic records of flood events and corresponding crop yield loss. In this study, historic records of MODIS-based flood and vegetation products and USDA/NASS crop type and crop yield data are used to train the regression-based rapid assessment algorithm. Validation of the rapid assessment algorithm indicates it can predict the yield loss at 90% accuracy, which is accurate enough to support USDA on flood-related quick response and mitigation.

Prediction of County-Level Corn Yields Using an Energy-Crop Growth Index.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andresen, Jeffrey A.; Dale, Robert F.; Fletcher, Jerald J.; Preckel, Paul V.

1989-01-01

Weather conditions significantly affect corn yields. while weather remains as the major uncontrolled variable in crop production, an understanding of the influence of weather on yields can aid in early and accurate assessment of the impact of weather and climate on crop yields and allow for timely agricultural extension advisories to help reduce farm management costs and improve marketing, decisions. Based on data for four representative countries in Indiana from 1960 to 1984 (excluding 1970 because of the disastrous southern corn leaf blight), a model was developed to estimate corn (Zea mays L.) yields as a function of several composite soil-crop-weather variables and a technology-trend marker, applied nitrogen fertilizer (N). The model was tested by predicting corn yields for 15 other counties. A daily energy-crop growth (ECG) variable in which different weights were used for the three crop-weather variables which make up the daily ECG-solar radiation intercepted by the canopy, a temperature function, and the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration-performed better than when the ECG components were weighted equally. The summation of the weighted daily ECG over a relatively short period (36 days spanning silk) was found to provide the best index for predicting county average corn yield. Numerical estimation results indicate that the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration (ET/PET) is much more important than the other two ECG factors in estimating county average corn yield in Indiana.

Roguing with replacement in perennial crops: conditions for successful disease management.

PubMed

Sisterson, Mark S; Stenger, Drake C

2013-02-01

Replacement of diseased plants with healthy plants is commonly used to manage spread of plant pathogens in perennial cropping systems. This strategy has two potential benefits. First, removing infected plants may slow pathogen spread by eliminating inoculum sources. Second, replacing infected plants with uninfected plants may offset yield losses due to disease. The extent to which these benefits are realized depends on multiple factors. In this study, sensitivity analyses of two spatially explicit simulation models were used to evaluate how assumptions concerning implementation of a plant replacement program and pathogen spread interact to affect disease suppression. In conjunction, effects of assumptions concerning yield loss associated with disease and rates of plant maturity on yields were simultaneously evaluated. The first model was used to evaluate effects of plant replacement on pathogen spread and yield on a single farm, consisting of a perennial crop monoculture. The second model evaluated effects of plant replacement on pathogen spread and yield in a 100 farm crop growing region, with all farms maintaining a monoculture of the same perennial crop. Results indicated that efficient replacement of infected plants combined with a high degree of compliance among farms effectively slowed pathogen spread, resulting in replacement of few plants and high yields. In contrast, inefficient replacement of infected plants or limited compliance among farms failed to slow pathogen spread, resulting in replacement of large numbers of plants (on farms practicing replacement) with little yield benefit. Replacement of infected plants always increased yields relative to simulations without plant replacement provided that infected plants produced no useable yield. However, if infected plants produced useable yields, inefficient removal of infected plants resulted in lower yields relative to simulations without plant replacement for perennial crops with long maturation periods in some cases.

Sensitivity and requirement of improvements of four soybean crop simulation models for climate change studies in Southern Brazil.

PubMed

Battisti, R; Sentelhas, P C; Boote, K J

2018-05-01

Crop growth models have many uncertainties that affect the yield response to climate change. Based on that, the aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of crop models to systematic changes in climate for simulating soybean attainable yield in Southern Brazil. Four crop models were used to simulate yields: AQUACROP, MONICA, DSSAT, and APSIM, as well as their ensemble. The simulations were performed considering changes of air temperature (0, + 1.5, + 3.0, + 4.5, and + 6.0 °C), [CO 2 ] (380, 480, 580, 680, and 780 ppm), rainfall (- 30, - 15, 0, + 15, and + 30%), and solar radiation (- 15, 0, + 15), applied to daily values. The baseline climate was from 1961 to 2014, totalizing 53 crop seasons. The crop models simulated a reduction of attainable yield with temperature increase, reaching 2000 kg ha -1 for the ensemble at + 6 °C, mainly due to shorter crop cycle. For rainfall, the yield had a higher rate of reduction when it was diminished than when rainfall was increased. The crop models increased yield variability when solar radiation was changed from - 15 to + 15%, whereas [CO 2 ] rise resulted in yield gains, following an asymptotic response, with a mean increase of 31% from 380 to 680 ppm. The models used require further attention to improvements in optimal and maximum cardinal temperature for development rate; runoff, water infiltration, deep drainage, and dynamic of root growth; photosynthesis parameters related to soil water availability; and energy balance of soil-plant system to define leaf temperature under elevated CO 2 .

Soybean yield in relation to distance from the Itaipu reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Faria, Rogério Teixeira; Junior, Ruy Casão; Werner, Simone Silmara; Junior, Luiz Antônio Zanão; Hoogenboom, Gerrit

2016-07-01

Crops close to small water bodies may exhibit changes in yield if the water mass causes significant changes in the microclimate of areas near the reservoir shoreline. The scientific literature describes this effect as occurring gradually, with higher intensity in the sites near the shoreline and decreasing intensity with distance from the reservoir. Experiments with two soybean cultivars were conducted during four crop seasons to evaluate soybean yield in relation to distance from the Itaipu reservoir and determine the effect of air temperature and water availability on soybean crop yield. Fifteen experimental sites were distributed in three transects perpendicular to the Itaipu reservoir, covering an area at approximately 10 km from the shoreline. The yield gradient between the site closest to the reservoir and the sites farther away in each transect did not show a consistent trend, but varied as a function of distance, crop season, and cultivar. This finding indicates that the Itaipu reservoir does not affect the yield of soybean plants grown within approximately 10 km from the shoreline. In addition, the variation in yield among the experimental sites was not attributed to thermal conditions because the temperature was similar within transects. However, the crop water availability was responsible for higher differences in yield among the neighboring experimental sites related to water stress caused by spatial variability in rainfall, especially during the soybean reproductive period in January and February.

High-resolution, regional-scale crop yield simulations for the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stack, D. H.; Kafatos, M.; Medvigy, D.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Prasad, A. K.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.; Asrar, G. R.

2012-12-01

Over the past few decades, there have been many process-based crop models developed with the goal of better understanding the impacts of climate, soils, and management decisions on crop yields. These models simulate the growth and development of crops in response to environmental drivers. Traditionally, process-based crop models have been run at the individual farm level for yield optimization and management scenario testing. Few previous studies have used these models over broader geographic regions, largely due to the lack of gridded high-resolution meteorological and soil datasets required as inputs for these data intensive process-based models. In particular, assessment of regional-scale yield variability due to climate change requires high-resolution, regional-scale, climate projections, and such projections have been unavailable until recently. The goal of this study was to create a framework for extending the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) crop model for use at regional scales and analyze spatial and temporal yield changes in the Southwestern United States (CA, AZ, and NV). Using the scripting language Python, an automated pipeline was developed to link Regional Climate Model (RCM) output with the APSIM crop model, thus creating a one-way nested modeling framework. This framework was used to combine climate, soil, land use, and agricultural management datasets in order to better understand the relationship between climate variability and crop yield at the regional-scale. Three different RCMs were used to drive APSIM: OLAM, RAMS, and WRF. Preliminary results suggest that, depending on the model inputs, there is some variability between simulated RCM driven maize yields and historical yields obtained from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Furthermore, these simulations showed strong non-linear correlations between yield and meteorological drivers, with critical threshold values for some of the inputs (e.g. minimum and maximum temperature), beyond which the yields were negatively affected. These results are now being used for further regional-scale yield analysis as the aforementioned framework is adaptable to multiple geographic regions and crop types.

Greenhouse tomato limited cluster production systems: crop management practices affect yield

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Logendra, L. S.; Gianfagna, T. J.; Specca, D. R.; Janes, H. W.

2001-01-01

Limited-cluster production systems may be a useful strategy to increase crop production and profitability for the greenhouse tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill). In this study, using an ebb-and-flood hydroponics system, we modified plant architecture and spacing and determined the effects on fruit yield and harvest index at two light levels. Single-cluster plants pruned to allow two leaves above the cluster had 25% higher fruit yields than did plants pruned directly above the cluster; this was due to an increase in fruit weight, not fruit number. Both fruit yield and harvest index were greater for all single-cluster plants at the higher light level because of increases in both fruit weight and fruit number. Fruit yield for two-cluster plants was 30% to 40% higher than for single-cluster plants, and there was little difference in the dates or length of the harvest period. Fruit yield for three-cluster plants was not significantly different from that of two-cluster plants; moreover, the harvest period was delayed by 5 days. Plant density (5.5, 7.4, 9.2 plants/m2) affected fruit yield/plant, but not fruit yield/unit area. Given the higher costs for materials and labor associated with higher plant densities, a two-cluster crop at 5.5 plants/m2 with two leaves above the cluster was the best of the production system strategies tested.

Vineyard floor management and cluster thinning inconsistently affect ‘Pinot noir’ crop load, berry composition, and wine quality

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A 3-year field study was developed to determine relationships between crop load metrics and berry composition for ‘Pinot noir’ in a cool-climate through the manipulation of vegetative growth and fruit yield using competitive cover cropping and cluster thinning, respectively. To alter vine vigor, per...

Impacts of elevated atmospheric CO2 on nutrient content and yield of important food crops

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

One of the many ways that climate change may affect human health is by altering the nutrient content of food crops. However, previous attempts to study the effects of increased atmospheric CO2 on crop nutrition have been limited by small sample sizes and/or artificial growing conditions. Here we p...

Dryland soil chemical properties and crop yields affected by long-term tillage and cropping sequence

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Information on the effect of long-term management on soil nutrients and chemical properties is scanty. We examined the 30-yr effect of tillage frequency and cropping sequence combination on dryland soil Olsen-P, K, Ca, Mg, Na, SO4-S, and Zn concentrations, pH, electrical conductivity (EC), and catio...

Dynamic Succession of Soil Bacterial Community during Continuous Cropping of Peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.)

PubMed Central

Chen, Mingna; Li, Xiao; Yang, Qingli; Chi, Xiaoyuan; Pan, Lijuan; Chen, Na; Yang, Zhen; Wang, Tong; Wang, Mian; Yu, Shanlin

2014-01-01

Plant health and soil fertility are affected by plant–microbial interactions in soils. Peanut is an important oil crop worldwide and shows considerable adaptability, but growth and yield are negatively affected by continuous cropping. In this study, 16S rRNA gene clone library analyses were used to study the succession of soil bacterial communities under continuous peanut cultivation. Six libraries were constructed for peanut over three continuous cropping cycles and during its seedling and pod-maturing growth stages. Cluster analyses indicated that soil bacterial assemblages obtained from the same peanut cropping cycle were similar, regardless of growth period. The diversity of bacterial sequences identified in each growth stage library of the three peanut cropping cycles was high and these sequences were affiliated with 21 bacterial groups. Eight phyla: Acidobacteria, Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Chloroflexi, Gemmatimonadetes, Planctomycetes, Proteobacteria and Verrucomicrobia were dominant. The related bacterial phylotypes dynamic changed during continuous cropping progress of peanut. This study demonstrated that the bacterial populations especially the beneficial populations were positively selected. The simplification of the beneficial microbial communities such as the phylotypes of Alteromonadales, Burkholderiales, Flavobacteriales, Pseudomonadales, Rhizobiales and Rhodospirillales could be important factors contributing to the decline in peanut yield under continuous cropping. The microbial phylotypes that did not successively changed with continuous cropping, such as populations related to Rhizobiales and Rhodospirillales, could potentially resist stress due to continuous cropping and deserve attention. In addition, some phylotypes, such as Acidobacteriales, Chromatiales and Gemmatimonadales, showed a contrary tendency, their abundance or diversity increased with continuous peanut cropping progress. Some bacterial phylotypes including Acidobacteriales, Burkholderiales, Bdellovibrionales, and so on, also were affected by plant age. PMID:25010658

Annual Crop-Yield Variation, Child Survival, and Nutrition Among Subsistence Farmers in Burkina Faso.

PubMed

Belesova, Kristine; Gasparrini, Antonio; Sié, Ali; Sauerborn, Rainer; Wilkinson, Paul

2018-02-01

Whether year-to-year variation in crop yields affects the nutrition, health, and survival of subsistence-farming populations is relevant to the understanding of the potential impacts of climate change. However, the empirical evidence is limited. We examined the associations of child survival with interannual variation in food crop yield and middle-upper arm circumference (MUAC) in a subsistence-farming population of rural Burkina Faso. The study was of 44,616 children aged <5 years included in the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System, 1992-2012, whose survival was analyzed in relation to the food crop yield in the year of birth (which ranged from 65% to 120% of the period average) and, for a subset of 16,698 children, to MUAC, using shared-frailty Cox proportional hazards models. Survival was appreciably worse in children born in years with low yield (full-adjustment hazard ratio = 1.11 (95% confidence interval: 1.02, 1.20) for a 90th- to 10th-centile decrease in annual crop yield) and in children with small MUAC (hazard ratio = 2.72 (95% confidence interval: 2.15, 3.44) for a 90th- to 10th-centile decrease in MUAC). These results suggest an adverse impact of variations in crop yields, which could increase under climate change. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison

DOE PAGES

Calvin, Kate; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

2017-10-27

Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparisonmore » between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between - 12% and + 15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change.« less

Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvin, Kate; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

2017-11-01

Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparison between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between -12% and +15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change.

Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Calvin, Kate; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparisonmore » between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between - 12% and + 15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change.« less

Population dynamics of plant nematodes in cultivated soil: length of rotation in newly cleared and old agricultural land.

PubMed

Good, J M; Murphy, W S; Brodie, B B

1973-04-01

During a 6-year study of 1-, 2-, and 3-year crop rotations, population densities of Pratylenchus brachyurus, Trichodorus christiei, and Meloidogyne incognita were significantly affected by the choice of crops but not by length of crop rotation. The density of P. brachyurus and T. christiei increased rapidly on milo (Sorghum vulgate). In addition, populations of P. brachyurus increased significantly in cropping systems that involved crotalaria (C. rnucronata), millet (Setaria italica), and sudangrass (Sorghum sudanense). Lowest numbers of P. brachyurus occurred where okra (Hibiscus esculentus) was grown or where land was fallow. The largest increase in populations of T. christiei occurred in cropping systems that involved millet, sudangrass, and okra whereas the smallest increase occurred in cropping systems that involved crotalaria or fallow. A winter cover of rye (Secale cereale) had no distinguishable effect on population densities of P. brachyurus or T. christiei. Meloidogyne incognita was detected during the fourth year in both newly cleared and old agricultural land when okra was included in the cropping system. Detectable populations of M. incognita did not develop in any of the other cropping systems. Yields of tomato transplants were higher on the newly cleared land than on the old land. Highest yields were obtained when crotalaria was included in the cropping system. Lowest yields were obtained when milo, or fallow were included in the cropping system. Length of rotation had no distinguishable effect on yields of tomato transplants.

Soil Eukaryotic Microorganism Succession as Affected by Continuous Cropping of Peanut - Pathogenic and Beneficial Fungi were Selected

PubMed Central

Chen, Mingna; Li, Xiao; Yang, Qingli; Chi, Xiaoyuan; Pan, Lijuan; Chen, Na; Yang, Zhen; Wang, Tong; Wang, Mian; Yu, Shanlin

2012-01-01

Peanut is an important oil crop worldwide and shows considerable adaptability but growth and yield are negatively affected by continuous cropping. Soil micro-organisms are efficient bio-indicators of soil quality and plant health and are critical to the sustainability of soil-based ecosystem function and to successful plant growth. In this study, 18S rRNA gene clone library analyses were employed to study the succession progress of soil eukaryotic micro-organisms under continuous peanut cultivation. Eight libraries were constructed for peanut over three continuous cropping cycles and its representative growth stages. Cluster analyses indicated that soil micro-eukaryotic assemblages obtained from the same peanut cropping cycle were similar, regardless of growth period. Six eukaryotic groups were found and fungi predominated in all libraries. The fungal populations showed significant dynamic change and overall diversity increased over time under continuous peanut cropping. The abundance and/or diversity of clones affiliated with Eurotiales, Hypocreales, Glomerales, Orbiliales, Mucorales and Tremellales showed an increasing trend with continuous cropping but clones affiliated with Agaricales, Cantharellales, Pezizales and Pyxidiophorales decreased in abundance and/or diversity over time. The current data, along with data from previous studies, demonstrated that the soil microbial community was affected by continuous cropping, in particular, the pathogenic and beneficial fungi that were positively selected over time, which is commonplace in agro-ecosystems. The trend towards an increase in fungal pathogens and simplification of the beneficial fungal community could be important factors contributing to the decline in peanut growth and yield over many years of continuous cropping. PMID:22808226

Biogas crops grown in energy crop rotations: Linking chemical composition and methane production characteristics.

PubMed

Herrmann, Christiane; Idler, Christine; Heiermann, Monika

2016-04-01

Methane production characteristics and chemical composition of 405 silages from 43 different crop species were examined using uniform laboratory methods, with the aim to characterise a wide range of crop feedstocks from energy crop rotations and to identify main parameters that influence biomass quality for biogas production. Methane formation was analysed from chopped and over 90 days ensiled crop biomass in batch anaerobic digestion tests without further pre-treatment. Lignin content of crop biomass was found to be the most significant explanatory variable for specific methane yields while the methane content and methane production rates were mainly affected by the content of nitrogen-free extracts and neutral detergent fibre, respectively. The accumulation of butyric acid and alcohols during the ensiling process had significant impact on specific methane yields and methane contents of crop silages. It is proposed that products of silage fermentation should be considered when evaluating crop silages for biogas production. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Light response of sunflower and canola as affected by plant density, plant genotype and N fertilization.

PubMed

Soleymani, A

2017-08-01

Crop response to light is an important parameter determining crop growth. Three field (split plots) experiments were conducted to investigate the effects of plant density, plant genotype and N fertilization on the light absorption and light extinction of sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) and canola (Brassica napus L.). A detailed set of plant growth, light absorption and crop yield and oil related parameters were determined. Light was measured at noon during the sunny days with clear sky. In experiment I, although the plant density (PD) of 14 resulted in the highest rate of sunflower light absorption (31.37%) and light extinction (0.756), the highest rate of grain yield and grain oil yield was resulted at PD12 at 3639 and 1457.9kg/ha, respectively; as well as by genotype SUP.A. In experiment II (canola), PD80 resulted in the highest rate of light absorption (13.13%), light extinction (0.63), grain yield (2189.4kg/ha) and grain oil yield (556.54kg/ha). This was also the case for Genotype H. In experiment III (canola), although N150 resulted in the highest rate of light absorption (10.74%) and light extinction (0.48), the highest rate of grain yield (3413.6kg/ha) and grain oil yield (891.86kg/ha) was resulted at N100 as well as by Genotype H401. Results indicate how light properties, crop growth and yield of sunflower and canola can be affected by plant and environmental parameters, which are also of practical use by farmers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of soil and groundwater salinization on tree crop performance in post-tsunami Aceh Barat, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marohn, C.; Distel, A.; Dercon, G.; Wahyunto; Tomlinson, R.; Noordwijk, M. v.; Cadisch, G.

2012-09-01

The Indian Ocean tsunami of December 2004 had far reaching consequences for agriculture in Aceh province, Indonesia, and particularly in Aceh Barat district, 150 km from the seaquake epicentre. In this study, the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of soil and groundwater salinity and their impact on tree crops were monitored in Aceh Barat from 2006 to 2008. On 48 sampling points along ten transects, covering 40 km of coastline, soil and groundwater salinity were measured and related to mortality and yield depression of the locally most important tree crops. Given a yearly rainfall of over 3000 mm, initial groundwater salinity declined rapidly from over 10 to less than 2 mS cm-1 within two years. On the other hand, seasonal dynamics of the groundwater table in combination with intrusion of saline water into the groundwater body led to recurring elevated salinity, sufficient to affect crops. Tree mortality and yield depression in the flooded area varied considerably between tree species. Damage to coconut (65% trees damaged) was related to tsunami run-up height, while rubber (50% trees damaged) was mainly affected by groundwater salinity. Coconut yields (-35% in average) were constrained by groundwater Ca2+ and Mg2+, while rubber yields (-65% on average) were related to groundwater chloride, pH and soil sodium. These findings have implications on planting deep-rooted tree crops as growth will be constrained by ongoing oscillations of the groundwater table and salinity.

Relationships between primary production and crop yields in semi-arid and arid irrigated agro-ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaafar, H. H.; Ahmad, F. A.

2015-04-01

In semi-arid areas within the MENA region, food security problems are the main problematic imposed. Remote sensing can be a promising too early diagnose food shortages and further prevent the population from famine risks. This study is aimed at examining the possibility of forecasting yield before harvest from remotely sensed MODIS-derived Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Net photosynthesis (net PSN), and Gross Primary Production (GPP) in semi-arid and arid irrigated agro-ecosystems within the conflict affected country of Syria. Relationships between summer yield and remotely sensed indices were derived and analyzed. Simple regression spatially-based models were developed to predict summer crop production. The validation of these models was tested during conflict years. A significant correlation (p<0.05) was found between summer crop yield and EVI, GPP and net PSN. Results indicate the efficiency of remotely sensed-based models in predicting summer yield, mostly for cotton yields and vegetables. Cumulative summer EVI-based model can predict summer crop yield during crisis period, with deviation less than 20% where vegetables are the major yield. This approach prompts to an early assessment of food shortages and lead to a real time management and decision making, especially in periods of crisis such as wars and drought.

Are we on the right track: Can our understanding of abscission in model systems promote or derail making improvements in less studied crops

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As the world population grows and resources and climate conditions change, crop improvement continues to be one of the most important challenges for agriculturalists. The yield and quality of many crops is affected by abscission or shattering, and environmental stresses often hasten or alter the abs...

Contrasting effects of landscape composition on crop yield mediated by specialist herbivores.

PubMed

Perez-Alvarez, Ricardo; Nault, Brian A; Poveda, Katja

2018-04-01

Landscape composition not only affects a variety of arthropod-mediated ecosystem services, but also disservices, such as herbivory by insect pests that may have negative effects on crop yield. Yet, little is known about how different habitats influence the dynamics of multiple herbivore species, and ultimately their collective impact on crop production. Using cabbage as a model system, we examined how landscape composition influenced the incidence of three specialist cruciferous pests (aphids, flea beetles, and leaf-feeding Lepidoptera), lepidopteran parasitoids, and crop yield across a gradient of landscape composition in New York, USA. We expected that landscapes with a higher proportion of cropland and lower habitat diversity would lead to an increase in pest pressure of the specialist herbivores and a reduction in crop yield. However, results indicated that neither greater cropland area nor lower landscape diversity influenced pest pressure or yield. Rather, pest pressure and yield were best explained by the presence of non-crop habitats (i.e., meadows) in the landscape. Specifically, cabbage was infested with fewer Lepidoptera in landscapes with a higher proportion of meadows likely resulting from increased parasitism. Conversely, cabbage was infested with more flea beetles and aphids as the proportion of meadows in the landscape increased, suggesting that these pests benefit from non-crop habitats. Furthermore, path analysis confirmed that these landscape-mediated effects on pest populations can have either positive or negative cascading effects on crop yield. Our findings illustrate how different pest species within the same cropping system show contrasting responses to landscape composition with respect to both the direction and spatial scale of the relationship. Such tradeoffs resulting from the complex interaction between multiple-pests, natural enemies, and landscape composition must be considered, if we are to manage landscapes for pest suppression benefits. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Increasing Crop Yields in Water Stressed Countries by Combining Operations of Freshwater Reservoir and Wastewater Reclamation Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhushan, R.; Ng, T. L.

2015-12-01

Freshwater resources around the world are increasing in scarcity due to population growth, industrialization and climate change. This is a serious concern for water stressed countries, including those in Asia and North Africa where future food production is expected to be negatively affected by this. To address this problem, we investigate the potential of combining freshwater reservoir and wastewater reclamation operations. Reservoir water is the cheaper source of irrigation, but is often limited and climate sensitive. Treated wastewater is a more reliable alternative for irrigation, but often requires extensive further treatment which can be expensive. We propose combining the operations of a reservoir and a wastewater reclamation plant (WWRP) to augment the supply from the reservoir with reclaimed water for increasing crop yields in water stressed regions. The joint system of reservoir and WWRP is modeled as a multi-objective optimization problem with the double objective of maximizing the crop yield and minimizing total cost, subject to constraints on reservoir storage, spill and release, and capacity of the WWRP. We use the crop growth model Aquacrop, supported by The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), to model crop growth in response to water use. Aquacrop considers the effects of water deficit on crop growth stages, and from there estimates crop yield. We generate results comparing total crop yield under irrigation with water from just the reservoir (which is limited and often interrupted), and yield with water from the joint system (which has the potential of higher supply and greater reliability). We will present results for locations in India and Africa to evaluate the potential of the joint operations for improving food security in those areas for different budgets.

An economic assessment of the health effects and crop yield losses caused by air pollution in mainland China.

PubMed

Miao, Weijie; Huang, Xin; Song, Yu

2017-06-01

Air pollution is severe in China, and pollutants such as PM 2.5 and surface O 3 may cause major damage to human health and crops, respectively. Few studies have considered the health effects of PM 2.5 or the loss of crop yields due to surface O 3 using model-simulated air pollution data in China. We used gridded outputs from the WRF-Chem model, high resolution population data, and crop yield data to evaluate the effects on human health and crop yield in mainland China. Our results showed that outdoor PM 2.5 pollution was responsible for 1.70-1.99 million cases of all-cause mortality in 2006. The economic costs of these health effects were estimated to be 151.1-176.9 billion USD, of which 90% were attributed to mortality. The estimated crop yield losses for wheat, rice, maize, and soybean were approximately 9, 4.6, 0.44, and 0.34 million tons, respectively, resulting in economic losses of 3.4 billion USD. The total economic losses due to ambient air pollution were estimated to be 154.5-180.3 billion USD, accounting for approximately 5.7%-6.6% of the total GDP of China in 2006. Our results show that both population health and staple crop yields in China have been significantly affected by exposure to air pollution. Measures should be taken to reduce emissions, improve air quality, and mitigate the economic loss. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Changes in yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Childers, Katelin

2015-04-01

An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the political discussion about mitigation targets as well as for the inclusion of climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that generally only provide global mean temperature change as an indicator of climate change. While there is a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with global mean temperature change we provide an assessment of the extent to which impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of global mean temperature changes without accounting for the specific underlying emissions scenario. Based on multi-crop-model simulations of the four major cereal crops (maize, rice, soy, and wheat) on a 0.5 x 0.5 degree global grid generated within ISI-MIP, we show the average spatial patterns of projected crop yield changes at one half degree warming steps. We find that emissions scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of global warming. Furthermore, scenario dependence can be reduced by accounting for the direct effects of CO2 fertilization in each global climate model (GCM)/impact model combination through an inclusion of the global atmospheric CO2 concentration as a second predictor. The choice of GCM output used to force the crop model simulations accounts for a slightly larger portion of the total yield variance, but the greatest contributor to variance in both global and regional crop yields and at all levels of warming, is the inter-crop-model spread. The unique multi impact model ensemble available with ISI-MIP data also indicates that the overall variability of crop yields is projected to increase in conjunction with increasing global mean temperature. This result is consistent throughout the ensemble of impact models and across many world regions. Such a hike in yield volatility could have significant policy implications by affecting food prices and supplies.

Climate Change and Its Impact on the Yield of Major Food Crops: Evidence from Pakistan

PubMed Central

Ali, Sajjad; Liu, Ying; Ishaq, Muhammad; Shah, Tariq; Abdullah; Ilyas, Aasir; Din, Izhar Ud

2017-01-01

Pakistan is vulnerable to climate change, and extreme climatic conditions are threatening food security. This study examines the effects of climate change (e.g., maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and the sunshine) on the major crops of Pakistan (e.g., wheat, rice, maize, and sugarcane). The methods of feasible generalized least square (FGLS) and heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation (HAC) consistent standard error were employed using time series data for the period 1989 to 2015. The results of the study reveal that maximum temperature adversely affects wheat production, while the effect of minimum temperature is positive and significant for all crops. Rainfall effect towards the yield of a selected crop is negative, except for wheat. To cope with and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, there is a need for the development of heat- and drought-resistant high-yielding varieties to ensure food security in the country. PMID:28538704

Climate Change and Its Impact on the Yield of Major Food Crops: Evidence from Pakistan.

PubMed

Ali, Sajjad; Liu, Ying; Ishaq, Muhammad; Shah, Tariq; Abdullah; Ilyas, Aasir; Din, Izhar Ud

2017-05-24

Pakistan is vulnerable to climate change, and extreme climatic conditions are threatening food security. This study examines the effects of climate change (e.g., maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and the sunshine) on the major crops of Pakistan (e.g., wheat, rice, maize, and sugarcane). The methods of feasible generalized least square (FGLS) and heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation (HAC) consistent standard error were employed using time series data for the period 1989 to 2015. The results of the study reveal that maximum temperature adversely affects wheat production, while the effect of minimum temperature is positive and significant for all crops. Rainfall effect towards the yield of a selected crop is negative, except for wheat. To cope with and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, there is a need for the development of heat- and drought-resistant high-yielding varieties to ensure food security in the country.

Prediction of Seasonal Climate-induced Variations in Global Food Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J.; Brown, Molly E.; Sakurai, Gen; Yamagata, Toshio

2013-01-01

Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are therefore exposed to variations in yields, production, and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of major food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We assessed the reliability of hindcasts (i.e., retrospective forecasts for the past) of crop yield loss relative to the previous year for two lead times. Pre-season yield predictions employ climatic forecasts and have lead times of approximately 3 to 5 months for providing information regarding variations in yields for the coming cropping season. Within-season yield predictions use climatic forecasts with lead times of 1 to 3 months. Pre-season predictions can be of value to national governments and commercial concerns, complemented by subsequent updates from within-season predictions. The latter incorporate information on the most recent climatic data for the upcoming period of reproductive growth. In addition to such predictions, hindcasts using observations from satellites were performed to demonstrate the upper limit of the reliability of crop forecasting.

Simulated Near-term Climate Change Impacts on Major Crops across Latin America and the Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gourdji, S.; Mesa-Diez, J.; Obando-Bonilla, D.; Navarro-Racines, C.; Moreno, P.; Fisher, M.; Prager, S.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.

2016-12-01

Robust estimates of climate change impacts on agricultural production can help to direct investments in adaptation in the coming decades. In this study commissioned by the Inter-American Development Bank, near-term climate change impacts (2020-2049) are simulated relative to a historical baseline period (1971-2000) for five major crops (maize, rice, wheat, soybean and dry bean) across Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) using the DSSAT crop model. No adaptation or technological change is assumed, thereby providing an analysis of existing climatic stresses on yields in the region and a worst-case scenario in the coming decades. DSSAT is run across irrigated and rain-fed growing areas in the region at a 0.5° spatial resolution for each crop. Crop model inputs for soils, planting dates, crop varieties and fertilizer applications are taken from previously-published datasets, and also optimized for this study. Results show that maize and dry bean are the crops most affected by climate change, followed by wheat, with only minimal changes for rice and soybean. Generally, rain-fed production sees more severe yield declines than irrigated production, although large increases in irrigation water are needed to maintain yields, reducing the yield-irrigation productivity in most areas and potentially exacerbating existing supply limitations in watersheds. This is especially true for rice and soybean, the two crops showing the most neutral yield changes. Rain-fed yields for maize and bean are projected to decline most severely in the sub-tropical Caribbean, Central America and northern South America, where climate models show a consistent drying trend. Crop failures are also projected to increase in these areas, necessitating switches to other crops or investment in adaptation measures. Generally, investment in agricultural adaptation to climate change (such as improved seed and irrigation infrastructure) will be needed throughout the LAC region in the 21st century.

Cover Crops and Fertilization Alter Nitrogen Loss in Organic and Conventional Conservation Agriculture Systems

PubMed Central

Shelton, Rebecca E.; Jacobsen, Krista L.; McCulley, Rebecca L.

2018-01-01

Agroecosystem nitrogen (N) loss produces greenhouse gases, induces eutrophication, and is costly for farmers; therefore, conservation agricultural management practices aimed at reducing N loss are increasingly adopted. However, the ecosystem consequences of these practices have not been well-studied. We quantified N loss via leaching, NH3 volatilization, N2O emissions, and N retention in plant and soil pools of corn conservation agroecosystems in Kentucky, USA. Three systems were evaluated: (1) an unfertilized, organic system with cover crops hairy vetch (Vicia villosa), winter wheat (Triticum aestivum), or a mix of the two (bi-culture); (2) an organic system with a hairy vetch cover crop employing three fertilization schemes (0 N, organic N, or a fertilizer N-credit approach); and (3) a conventional system with a winter wheat cover crop and three fertilization schemes (0 N, urea N, or organic N). In the unfertilized organic system, cover crop species affected NO3-N leaching (vetch > bi-culture > wheat) and N2O-N emissions and yield during corn growth (vetch, bi-culture > wheat). Fertilization increased soil inorganic N, gaseous N loss, N leaching, and yield in the organic vetch and conventional wheat systems. Fertilizer scheme affected the magnitude of growing season N2O-N loss in the organic vetch system (organic N > fertilizer N-credit) and the timing of loss (organic N delayed N2O-N loss vs. urea) and NO3-N leaching (urea >> organic N) in the conventional wheat system, but had no effect on yield. Cover crop selection and N fertilization techniques can reduce N leaching and greenhouse gas emissions without sacrificing yield, thereby enhancing N conservation in both organic and conventional conservation agriculture systems. PMID:29403512

Quantifying the thermal heat requirement of Brassica in assessing biophysical parameters under semi-arid microenvironments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adak, Tarun; Chakravarty, N. V. K.

2010-07-01

Evaluation of the thermal heat requirement of Brassica spp. across agro-ecological regions is required in order to understand the further effects of climate change. Spatio-temporal changes in hydrothermal regimes are likely to affect the physiological growth pattern of the crop, which in turn will affect economic yields and crop quality. Such information is helpful in developing crop simulation models to describe the differential thermal regimes that prevail at different phenophases of the crop. Thus, the current lack of quantitative information on the thermal heat requirement of Brassica crops under debranched microenvironments prompted the present study, which set out to examine the response of biophysical parameters [leaf area index (LAI), dry biomass production, seed yield and oil content] to modified microenvironments. Following 2 years of field experiments on Typic Ustocrepts soils under semi-arid climatic conditions, it was concluded that the Brassica crop is significantly responsive to microenvironment modification. A highly significant and curvilinear relationship was observed between LAI and dry biomass production with accumulated heat units, with thermal accumulation explaining ≥80% of the variation in LAI and dry biomass production. It was further observed that the economic seed yield and oil content, which are a function of the prevailing weather conditions, were significantly responsive to the heat units accumulated from sowing to 50% physiological maturity. Linear regression analysis showed that growing degree days (GDD) could indicate 60-70% variation in seed yield and oil content, probably because of the significant response to differential thermal microenvironments. The present study illustrates the statistically strong and significant response of biophysical parameters of Brassica spp. to microenvironment modification in semi-arid regions of northern India.

Drought-related vulnerability and risk assessment of groundwater in Belgium: estimation of the groundwater recharge and crop yield vulnerability with the B-CGMS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacquemin, Ingrid; Verbeiren, Boud; Vanderhaegen, Sven; Canters, Frank; Vermeiren, Karolien; Engelen, Guy; Huysmans, Marijke; Batelaan, Okke; Tychon, Bernard

2016-04-01

Due to common belief that regions under temperate climate are not affected by (meteorological and groundwater) drought, these events and their impacts remain poorly studied: in the GroWaDRISK, we propose to take stock of this question. We aim at providing a better understanding of the influencing factors (land use and land cover changes, water demand and climate) and the drought-related impacts on the environment, water supply and agriculture. The study area is located in the North-East of Belgium, corresponding approximatively to the Dijle and Demer catchments. To establish an overview of the groundwater situation, we assess the system input: the recharge. To achieve this goal, two models, B-CGMS and WetSpass are used to evaluate the recharge, respectively, over agricultural land and over the remaining areas, as a function of climate and for various land uses and land covers. B-CGMS, which is an adapted version for Belgium of the European Crop Growth Monitoring System, is used for assessing water recharge at a daily timestep and under different agricultural lands: arable land (winter wheat, maize...), orchards, horticulture and floriculture and for grassland. B-CGMS is designed to foresee crop yield and obviously it studies the impact of drought on crop yield and raises issues for the potential need of irrigation. For both yields and water requirements, the model proposes a potential mode, driven by temperature and solar radiation, and a water-limited mode for which water availability can limit crop growth. By this way, we can identify where and when water consumption and yield are not optimal, in addition to the Crop Water Stress Index. This index is calculated for a given crop, as the number of days affected by water stress during the growth sensitive period. Both recharge and crop yield are assessed for the current situation (1980 - 2012), taking into account the changing land use/land cover, in terms of areas and localization of the agricultural land and where the proportion of the different crops had considerably evolved through time (e.g., increase of grain maize and potatoes while winter cereals decrease). The preliminary results of the recharge lead to an average value in the area showing a significant negative trend, in both simulations with fixed (base = 1980) and changing land cover. In the same time, we could observe an increasing number of water stress periods, especially for maize, one of the main crops in the area. Finally, a preliminary test will be presented for the horizon 2040, for which we use meteorological time series (for high and low hydrologic impacts) given by the CCI-HYDR Perturbation Tool (Ntegeka V. and Willems P., 2009). This preliminary test aims to (1) evaluate the amplitude of the potential recharge deficit and, (2) especially, to define vulnerability zones, affected by frequent water stress, in connection with irrigation needs which could possibly increase the groundwater extraction.

The Potential of Five Winter-grown Crops to Reduce Root-knot Nematode Damage and Increase Yield of Tomato

PubMed Central

López-Pérez, Jose Antonio; Roubtsova, Tatiana; de Cara García, Miguel

2010-01-01

Broccoli (Brassica oleracea), carrot (Daucus carota), marigold (Tagetes patula), nematode-resistant tomato (Solanum lycopersicum), and strawberry (Fragaria ananassa) were grown for three years during the winter in a root-knot nematode (Meloidogyne incognita) infested field in Southern California. Each year in the spring, the tops of all crops were shredded and incorporated in the soil. Amendment with poultry litter was included as a sub-treatment. The soil was then covered with clear plastic for six weeks and M. incognita-susceptible tomato was grown during the summer season. Plastic tarping raised the average soil temperature at 13 cm depth by 7°C.The different winter-grown crops or the poultry litter did not affect M. incognita soil population levels. However, root galling on summer tomato was reduced by 36%, and tomato yields increased by 19% after incorporating broccoli compared to the fallow control. This crop also produced the highest amount of biomass of the five winter-grown crops. Over the three-year trial period, poultry litter increased tomato yields, but did not affect root galling caused by M. incognita. We conclude that cultivation followed by soil incorporation of broccoli reduced M. incognita damage to tomato. This effect is possibly due to delaying or preventing a portion of the nematodes to reach the host roots. We also observed that M. incognita populations did not increase under a host crop during the cool season when soil temperatures remained low (< 18°C). PMID:22736848

The Narcotics Emirate of Afghanistan: Armed Polities and Their Roles in Illicit Drug Production and Conflict 1980-2010

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-12-01

yields in 1969 and 1970.78 American and European smugglers facilitated the movement of Afghan hash throughout the world until U.S. drug enforcement...significantly affected opium yields . *Denotes approximation from UNDCP records. Table 4. Sampling of Opium Production (metric tons) According to the...shorter grow-cycle than food crops like wheat, allowing farmers to double-crop with livestock fodder, such as maize following the opium harvest

Weed Diversity Affects Soybean and Maize Yield in a Long Term Experiment in Michigan, USA.

PubMed

Ferrero, Rosana; Lima, Mauricio; Davis, Adam S; Gonzalez-Andujar, Jose L

2017-01-01

Managing production environments in ways that promote weed community diversity may enhance both crop production and the development of a more sustainable agriculture. This study analyzed data of productivity of maize (corn) and soybean in plots in the Main Cropping System Experiment (MCSE) at the W. K. Kellogg Biological Station Long-Term Ecological Research (KBS-LTER) in Michigan, USA, from 1996 to 2011. We used models derived from population ecology to explore how weed diversity, temperature, and precipitation interact with crop yields. Using three types of models that considered internal and external (climate and weeds) factors, with additive or non-linear variants, we found that changes in weed diversity were associated with changes in rates of crop yield increase over time for both maize and soybeans. The intrinsic capacity for soybean yield increase in response to the environment was greater under more diverse weed communities. Soybean production risks were greatest in the least weed diverse systems, in which each weed species lost was associated with progressively greater crop yield losses. Managing for weed community diversity, while suppressing dominant, highly competitive weeds, may be a helpful strategy for supporting long term increases in soybean productivity. In maize, there was a negative and non-additive response of yields to the interaction between weed diversity and minimum air temperatures. When cold temperatures constrained potential maize productivity through limited resources, negative interactions with weed diversity became more pronounced. We suggest that: (1) maize was less competitive in cold years allowing higher weed diversity and the dominance of some weed species; or (2) that cold years resulted in increased weed richness and prevalence of competitive weeds, thus reducing crop yields. Therefore, we propose to control dominant weed species especially in the years of low yield and extreme minimum temperatures to improve maize yields. Results of our study indicate that through the proactive management of weed diversity, it may be possible to promote both high productivity of crops and environmental sustainability.

Weed Diversity Affects Soybean and Maize Yield in a Long Term Experiment in Michigan, USA

PubMed Central

Ferrero, Rosana; Lima, Mauricio; Davis, Adam S.; Gonzalez-Andujar, Jose L.

2017-01-01

Managing production environments in ways that promote weed community diversity may enhance both crop production and the development of a more sustainable agriculture. This study analyzed data of productivity of maize (corn) and soybean in plots in the Main Cropping System Experiment (MCSE) at the W. K. Kellogg Biological Station Long-Term Ecological Research (KBS-LTER) in Michigan, USA, from 1996 to 2011. We used models derived from population ecology to explore how weed diversity, temperature, and precipitation interact with crop yields. Using three types of models that considered internal and external (climate and weeds) factors, with additive or non-linear variants, we found that changes in weed diversity were associated with changes in rates of crop yield increase over time for both maize and soybeans. The intrinsic capacity for soybean yield increase in response to the environment was greater under more diverse weed communities. Soybean production risks were greatest in the least weed diverse systems, in which each weed species lost was associated with progressively greater crop yield losses. Managing for weed community diversity, while suppressing dominant, highly competitive weeds, may be a helpful strategy for supporting long term increases in soybean productivity. In maize, there was a negative and non-additive response of yields to the interaction between weed diversity and minimum air temperatures. When cold temperatures constrained potential maize productivity through limited resources, negative interactions with weed diversity became more pronounced. We suggest that: (1) maize was less competitive in cold years allowing higher weed diversity and the dominance of some weed species; or (2) that cold years resulted in increased weed richness and prevalence of competitive weeds, thus reducing crop yields. Therefore, we propose to control dominant weed species especially in the years of low yield and extreme minimum temperatures to improve maize yields. Results of our study indicate that through the proactive management of weed diversity, it may be possible to promote both high productivity of crops and environmental sustainability. PMID:28286509

The genetic and molecular basis of crop height based on a rice model.

PubMed

Liu, Fang; Wang, Pandi; Zhang, Xiaobo; Li, Xiaofei; Yan, Xiaohong; Fu, Donghui; Wu, Gang

2018-01-01

This review presents genetic and molecular basis of crop height using a rice crop model. Height is controlled by multiple genes with potential to be manipulated through breeding strategies to improve productivity. Height is an important factor affecting crop architecture, apical dominance, biomass, resistance to lodging, tolerance to crowding and mechanical harvesting. The impressive increase in wheat and rice yield during the 'green revolution' benefited from a combination of breeding for high-yielding dwarf varieties together with advances in agricultural mechanization, irrigation and agrochemical/fertilizer use. To maximize yield under irrigation and high fertilizer use, semi-dwarfing is optimal, whereas extreme dwarfing leads to decreased yield. Rice plant height is controlled by genes that lie in a complex regulatory network, mainly involved in the biosynthesis or signal transduction of phytohormones such as gibberellins, brassinosteroids and strigolactones. Additional dwarfing genes have been discovered that are involved in other pathways, some of which are uncharacterized. This review discusses our current understanding of the regulation of plant height using rice as a well-characterized model and highlights some of the most promising research that could lead to the development of new, high-yielding varieties. This knowledge underpins future work towards the genetic improvement of plant height in rice and other crops.

Dependency of global primary bioenergy crop potentials in 2050 on food systems, yields, biodiversity conservation and political stability.

PubMed

Erb, Karl-Heinz; Haberl, Helmut; Plutzar, Christoph

2012-08-01

The future bioenergy crop potential depends on (1) changes in the food system (food demand, agricultural technology), (2) political stability and investment security, (3) biodiversity conservation, (4) avoidance of long carbon payback times from deforestation, and (5) energy crop yields. Using a biophysical biomass-balance model, we analyze how these factors affect global primary bioenergy potentials in 2050. The model calculates biomass supply and demand balances for eleven world regions, eleven food categories, seven food crop types and two livestock categories, integrating agricultural forecasts and scenarios with a consistent global land use and NPP database. The TREND scenario results in a global primary bioenergy potential of 77 EJ/yr, alternative assumptions on food-system changes result in a range of 26-141 EJ/yr. Exclusion of areas for biodiversity conservation and inaccessible land in failed states reduces the bioenergy potential by up to 45%. Optimistic assumptions on future energy crop yields increase the potential by up to 48%, while pessimistic assumptions lower the potential by 26%. We conclude that the design of sustainable bioenergy crop production policies needs to resolve difficult trade-offs such as food vs. energy supply, renewable energy vs. biodiversity conservation or yield growth vs. reduction of environmental problems of intensive agriculture.

Dependency of global primary bioenergy crop potentials in 2050 on food systems, yields, biodiversity conservation and political stability

PubMed Central

Erb, Karl-Heinz; Haberl, Helmut; Plutzar, Christoph

2012-01-01

The future bioenergy crop potential depends on (1) changes in the food system (food demand, agricultural technology), (2) political stability and investment security, (3) biodiversity conservation, (4) avoidance of long carbon payback times from deforestation, and (5) energy crop yields. Using a biophysical biomass-balance model, we analyze how these factors affect global primary bioenergy potentials in 2050. The model calculates biomass supply and demand balances for eleven world regions, eleven food categories, seven food crop types and two livestock categories, integrating agricultural forecasts and scenarios with a consistent global land use and NPP database. The TREND scenario results in a global primary bioenergy potential of 77 EJ/yr, alternative assumptions on food-system changes result in a range of 26–141 EJ/yr. Exclusion of areas for biodiversity conservation and inaccessible land in failed states reduces the bioenergy potential by up to 45%. Optimistic assumptions on future energy crop yields increase the potential by up to 48%, while pessimistic assumptions lower the potential by 26%. We conclude that the design of sustainable bioenergy crop production policies needs to resolve difficult trade-offs such as food vs. energy supply, renewable energy vs. biodiversity conservation or yield growth vs. reduction of environmental problems of intensive agriculture. PMID:23576836

A black color morph of adult Nezara viridula (L.)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The southern green stink bug is a worldwide pest of cotton and other row crops, affecting crop yield and transmitting diseases. Adult coloration is sometimes used to identify southern green stink bugs and to determine their physiological condition. Multiple colors occur in southern green stink bug. ...

The stochastic resonance for the incidence function model of metapopulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiang-Cheng; Dong, Zhi-Wei; Zhou, Ruo-Wei; Li, Yun-Xian; Qian, Zhen-Wei

2017-06-01

A stochastic model with endogenous and exogenous periodicities is proposed in this paper on the basis of metapopulation dynamics to model the crop yield losses due to pests and diseases. The rationale is that crop yield losses occur because the physiology of the growing crop is negatively affected by pests and diseases in a dynamic way over time as crop both grows and develops. Metapopulation dynamics can thus be used to model the resultant crop yield losses. The stochastic metapopulation process is described by using the Simplified Incidence Function model (IFM). Compared to the original IFMs, endogenous and exogenous periodicities are considered in the proposed model to handle the cyclical patterns observed in pest infestations, diseases epidemics, and exogenous affecting factors such as temperature and rainfalls. Agricultural loss data in China are used to fit the proposed model. Experimental results demonstrate that: (1) Model with endogenous and exogenous periodicities is a better fit; (2) When the internal system fluctuations and external environmental fluctuations are negatively correlated, EIL or the cost of loss is monotonically increasing; when the internal system fluctuations and external environmental fluctuations are positively correlated, an outbreak of pests and diseases might occur; (3) If the internal system fluctuations and external environmental fluctuations are positively correlated, an optimal patch size can be identified which will greatly weaken the effects of external environmental influence and hence inhibit pest infestations and disease epidemics.

Improvement of red pepper yield and soil environment by summer catch aquatic crops in greenhouses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, X. F.; Wang, L. Z.; Peng, J.; Wang, G. L.; Guo, X. S.; Wen, T. G.; Gu, D. L.; Wang, W. Z.; Wu, C. W.

2016-08-01

To investigate effects of the rotation of summer catch crops on remediation retrogressed soils in continuous cropping, a field experiment was conducted. Rice, water spinach, or cress were selected as summer catch crops; bare fallow during summer fallow was used as the control group. Results showed that aquatic crops grown in summer fallow period could effectively reduce soil bulk density and pH, facilitate soil nutrient release, and improve soil physical and chemical properties compared with those grown in fallow period. Paddy-upland rotation could improve soil microbial members and increase bacterial and actinomycete populations; by contrast, paddy-upland rotation could reduce fungal populations and enhance bacterium-to-fungus ratio. Paddy-upland rotation could also actively promote activities of soil enzymes, such as urease, phosphatase, invertase, and catalase. The proposed paddy-upland rotation significantly affected the growth of red pepper; the yield and quality of the grown red pepper were enhanced. Summer catch crops, such as rice, water spinach, and cress significantly increased pepper yield in the following growing season by 15.4%, 10.2% and 14.0%, respectively, compared with those grown in fallow treatment. Therefore, the proposed paddy-upland crop rotation could be a useful method to alleviate continuous cropping problems involved in cultivating red pepper in greenhouses.

Detecting crop yield reduction due to irrigation-induced soil salinization in South-West Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Argaman, E.; Beets, W.; Croes, J.; Keesstra, S.; Verzandvoort, S.; Zeiliguer, A.

2012-04-01

The South-European part of the Russian Federation has experienced serious land degradation in the form of soil salinization since the 1960s. This land degradation was caused by intensive, large-scale irrigation on reclaimed land in combination with the salt-rich nature of the substrate. Alkaline soil salinity is believed to be an important factor decreasing crop yield in this area. A large research effort has been directed to the effects of soil salinity on crops, there is a need for simple, easily determinable indicators of crop health and soil salinity in irrigated systems, that can help to detect crop water stress in an early stage. The objectives of this research were to study the effects of soil salinity and vegetation water stress on the performance of alfalfa crop yield and physiological crop properties, and to study the possibility to measure soil salinity and alkalinity and the crop water stress index at plot level using a thermal gun and a regular digital camera. The study area was located in Saratov District, in the South-West part of Russia. Variables on the surface energy balance, crop properties, soil properties and visible reflectance were measured on plots with alfalfa cultures in two fields with and without signs of alkaline soil salinity, and with and without irrigation in July 2009. The research showed no clear adverse effects of soil salinity and soil alkalinity on crop yield and physiological crop properties. Soil salinity, as reflected by the electric conductivity, positively affected the root biomass of alfalfa in the range of 0.15 to 1.52 dS/m . This was a result of EC levels being below the documented threshold to negatively affect Alfalfa, as would be the case in truly saline soils. The soil pH also showed a positive correlation with root biomass within the range of pH 6.2 and 8.5 . From the literature these pH values are generally believed to be too high to exhibit a positive relationship with root biomass. No relationship was found between EC and pH on the one hand , and soil moisture content on the other. However, soil moisture content in the topsoil appeared to have a major influence on the crop water stress index, which on its turn affected the leaf area index, the fresh biomass and the mean plant height. The crop leaf color as detected by a regular digital camera appeared to be correlated with pH and EC properties of the soil. The visible light band ratios red/green and blue/green correlated well with the crop water stress index. More research is necessary to prove if this relation is applicable in different environments, and for different crops. A confirmation of these findings would offer scope to increase the spatial support of this technique using satellite images.

Impact assessment and recommendation of alternative conjunctive water use strategies for salt affected agricultural lands through a field scale decision support system - a case study.

PubMed

Kaur, Ravinder; Paul, Madhumita; Malik, Rashmi

2007-06-01

Conjunctive use of saline/non-saline irrigation waters is generally aimed at minimizing yield losses and enhancing flexibility of cropping, without much alteration in farming operations. Recommendation of location-specific suitable conjunctive water use plans requires assessment of their long-term impacts on soil salinization/sodification and crop yield reductions. This is conventionally achieved through long-term field experiments. However such impact evaluations are site specific, expensive and time consuming. Appropriate decision support systems (DSS) can be time-efficient and cost-effective means for such long-term impact evaluations. This study demonstrates the application of one such (indigenously developed) DSS for recommending best conjunctive water use plans for a, rice-wheat growing, salt affected farmer's field in Gurgaon district of Haryana (India). Before application, the DSS was extensively validated on several farmers and controlled experimental fields in Gurgaon and Karnal districts of Haryana (India). Validation of DSS showed its potential to give realistic estimates of root zone soil salinity (with R = 0.76-0.94; AMRE = 0.03-0.06; RMSPD = 0.51-0.90); sodicity (with R = 0.99; AMRE = 0.02; RMSPD = 0.84) and relative crop yield reductions (AMRE = 0.24), under existing (local) resource management practices. Long term (10 years) root zone salt build ups and associated rice/wheat crop yield reductions, in a salt affected farmer's field, under varied conjunctive water use scenarios were evaluated with the validated DSS. It was observed that long-term applications of canal (CW) and tube well (TW) waters in a cycle and in 1:1 mixed mode, during Kharif season, predicted higher average root zone salt reductions (2-9%) and lower rice crop yield reductions (4-5%) than the existing practice of 3-CW, 3-TW, 3-CW. Besides this, long-term application of 75% CW mixed with 25% TW, during Rabi season, predicted about 17% lower average root-zone salt reductions than the cyclic applications of (1-CW, 1-TW, 2-CW) and (2-CW, 1-TW, 1-CW, i.e., existing irrigation strategy). However, average wheat crop yield reductions (16-17%) simulated under all these strategies were almost at par. In general, cyclic-conjunctive water use strategies emerged as better options than the blending modes. These results were in complete confirmation with actual long-term conjunctive water use experiments on similar soils. It was thus observed that such pre-validated tools could be efficient means for designing, local resource and target crop yield-specific, appropriate conjunctive water use plans for irrigated agricultural lands.

Physiological and transcriptomic responses in the seed coat of field-grown soybean (Glycine max L. Merr.) to abiotic stress

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Understanding how intensification of abiotic stress due to global climate change affects crop yields is important for continued agricultural productivity. Coupling genomic technologies with physiological crop responses in a dynamic field environment is an effective approach to dissect the mechanisms...

Spatio-temporal dynamics of Fusarium head blight and Trichothecene toxin types in Canada

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In many parts of the world Fusarium graminearum is the primary causal agent of Fusarium head blight (FHB), a disease of cereal crops that adversely affects crop yield, food safety, and animal health. We previously demonstrated population structure associated with differences in trichothecene toxin t...

The impact of volunteer rice infestation on rice yield and grain quality

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Volunteer rice (Oryza sativa L.) is a crop stand which emerges from shattered seeds of the previous crop. When present at sufficiently high levels, it can potentially affect the commercial market value of cultivated rice products, especially if it produces kernels with quality, uniformity, or size ...

Zinc deficiency alters soybean susceptibility to pathogens and pests

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Inadequate plant nutrition and biotic stress are key threats to current and future crop yields. Zinc deficiency and toxicity in major crop plants have been documented, but there is limited information on how pathogen and pest damage may be affected by differing plant zinc levels. In our study, we us...

Changes in water budgets and sediment yields from a hypothetical agricultural field as a function of landscape and management characteristics--A unit field modeling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roth, Jason L.; Capel, Paul D.

2012-01-01

Crop agriculture occupies 13 percent of the conterminous United States. Agricultural management practices, such as crop and tillage types, affect the hydrologic flow paths through the landscape. Some agricultural practices, such as drainage and irrigation, create entirely new hydrologic flow paths upon the landscapes where they are implemented. These hydrologic changes can affect the magnitude and partitioning of water budgets and sediment erosion. Given the wide degree of variability amongst agricultural settings, changes in the magnitudes of hydrologic flow paths and sediment erosion induced by agricultural management practices commonly are difficult to characterize, quantify, and compare using only field observations. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was used to simulate two landscape characteristics (slope and soil texture) and three agricultural management practices (land cover/crop type, tillage type, and selected agricultural land management practices) to evaluate their effects on the water budgets of and sediment yield from agricultural lands. An array of sixty-eight 60-year simulations were run, each representing a distinct natural or agricultural scenario with various slopes, soil textures, crop or land cover types, tillage types, and select agricultural management practices on an isolated 16.2-hectare field. Simulations were made to represent two common agricultural climate regimes: arid with sprinkler irrigation and humid. These climate regimes were constructed with actual climate and irrigation data. The results of these simulations demonstrate the magnitudes of potential changes in water budgets and sediment yields from lands as a result of landscape characteristics and agricultural practices adopted on them. These simulations showed that variations in landscape characteristics, such as slope and soil type, had appreciable effects on water budgets and sediment yields. As slopes increased, sediment yields increased in both the arid and humid environments. However, runoff did not increase with slope in the arid environment as was observed in the humid environment. In both environments, clayey soils exhibited the greatest amount of runoff and sediment yields while sandy soils had greater recharge and lessor runoff and sediment yield. Scenarios simulating the effects of the timing and type of tillage practice showed that no-till, conservation, and contouring tillages reduced sediment yields and, with the exception of no-till, runoff in both environments. Changes in land cover and crop type simulated the changes between the evapotransporative potential and surface roughness imparted by specific vegetations. Substantial differences in water budgets and sediment yields were observed between most agricultural crops and the natural covers selected for each environment: scrub and prairie grass for the arid environment and forest and prairie grass for the humid environment. Finally, a group of simulations was performed to model selected agricultural management practices. Among the selected practices subsurface drainage and strip cropping exhibited the largest shifts in water budgets and sediment yields. The practice of crop rotation (corn/soybean) and cover cropping (corn/rye) were predicted to increase sediment yields from a field planted as conventional corn.

Farm-scale evaluation of the impacts of transgenic cotton on biodiversity, pesticide use, and yield.

PubMed

Cattaneo, Manda G; Yafuso, Christine; Schmidt, Chris; Huang, Cho-ying; Rahman, Magfurar; Olson, Carl; Ellers-Kirk, Christa; Orr, Barron J; Marsh, Stuart E; Antilla, Larry; Dutilleul, Pierre; Carrière, Yves

2006-05-16

Higher yields and reduced pesticide impacts are needed to mitigate the effects of agricultural intensification. A 2-year farm-scale evaluation of 81 commercial fields in Arizona show that use of transgenic Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton reduced insecticide use, whereas transgenic cotton with Bt protein and herbicide resistance (BtHr) did not affect herbicide use. Transgenic cotton had higher yield than nontransgenic cotton for any given number of insecticide applications. However, nontransgenic, Bt and BtHr cotton had similar yields overall, largely because higher insecticide use with nontransgenic cotton improved control of key pests. Unlike Bt and BtHr cotton, insecticides reduced the diversity of nontarget insects. Several other agronomic and ecological factors also affected biodiversity. Nevertheless, pairwise comparisons of diversity of nontarget insects in cotton fields with diversity in adjacent noncultivated sites revealed similar effects of cultivation of transgenic and nontransgenic cotton on biodiversity. The results indicate that impacts of agricultural intensification can be reduced when replacement of broad-spectrum insecticides by narrow-spectrum Bt crops does not reduce control of pests not affected by Bt crops.

Spatiotemporal analysis of projected impacts of climate change on the major C3 and C4 crop yield under representative concentration pathway 4.5: Insight from the coasts of Tamil Nadu, South India

PubMed Central

A, Ramachandran; Praveen, Dhanya; R, Jaganathan; D, RajaLakshmi; K, Palanivelu

2017-01-01

India's dependence on a climate sensitive sector like agriculture makes it highly vulnerable to its impacts. However, agriculture is highly heterogeneous across the country owing to regional disparities in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. It is essential to know and quantify the possible impacts of changes in climate on crop yield for successful agricultural management and planning at a local scale. The Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System (HadGEM-ES) was employed to generate regional climate projections for the study area using the Regional Climate Model (RCM) RegCM4.4. The dynamics in potential impacts at the sub-district level were evaluated using the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCPs). The aim of this study was to simulate the crop yield under a plausible change in climate for the coastal areas of South India through the end of this century. The crop simulation model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) 4.5, was used to understand the plausible impacts on the major crop yields of rice, groundnuts, and sugarcane under the RCP 4.5 trajectory. The findings reveal that under the RCP 4.5 scenario there will be decreases in the major C3 and C4 crop yields in the study area. This would affect not only the local food security, but the livelihood security as well. This necessitates timely planning to achieve sustainable crop productivity and livelihood security. On the other hand, this situation warrants appropriate adaptations and policy intervention at the sub-district level for achieving sustainable crop productivity in the future. PMID:28753605

Spatiotemporal analysis of projected impacts of climate change on the major C3 and C4 crop yield under representative concentration pathway 4.5: Insight from the coasts of Tamil Nadu, South India.

PubMed

A, Ramachandran; Praveen, Dhanya; R, Jaganathan; D, RajaLakshmi; K, Palanivelu

2017-01-01

India's dependence on a climate sensitive sector like agriculture makes it highly vulnerable to its impacts. However, agriculture is highly heterogeneous across the country owing to regional disparities in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. It is essential to know and quantify the possible impacts of changes in climate on crop yield for successful agricultural management and planning at a local scale. The Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System (HadGEM-ES) was employed to generate regional climate projections for the study area using the Regional Climate Model (RCM) RegCM4.4. The dynamics in potential impacts at the sub-district level were evaluated using the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCPs). The aim of this study was to simulate the crop yield under a plausible change in climate for the coastal areas of South India through the end of this century. The crop simulation model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) 4.5, was used to understand the plausible impacts on the major crop yields of rice, groundnuts, and sugarcane under the RCP 4.5 trajectory. The findings reveal that under the RCP 4.5 scenario there will be decreases in the major C3 and C4 crop yields in the study area. This would affect not only the local food security, but the livelihood security as well. This necessitates timely planning to achieve sustainable crop productivity and livelihood security. On the other hand, this situation warrants appropriate adaptations and policy intervention at the sub-district level for achieving sustainable crop productivity in the future.

Crop insurance evaluation in response to extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moriondo, Marco; Ferrise, Roberto; Bindi, Marco

2013-04-01

Crop yield insurance has been indicated as a tool to manage the uncertainties of crop yields (Sherrick et al., 2004) but the changes in crop yield variability as expected in the near future should be carefully considered for a better quantitative assessment of farmer's revenue risk and insurance values in a climatic change regime (Moriondo et al., 2011). Under this point of view, mechanistic crop growth models coupled to the output of General/Regional Circulation Models (GCMs, RCMs) offer a valuable tool to evaluate crop responses to climatic change and this approach has been extensively used to describe crop yield distribution in response to climatic change considering changes in both mean climate and variability. In this work, we studied the effect of a warmer climate on crop yield distribution of durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. subsp durum) in order to assess the economic significance of climatic change in a risk decision context. Specifically, the outputs of 6 RCMs (Tmin, Tmax, Rainfall, Global Radiation) (van der Linden and Mitchell 2009) have been statistically downscaled by a stochastic weather generator over eight sites across the Mediterranean basin and used to feed the crop growth model Sirius Quality. Three time slices were considered i) the present period PP (average of the period 1975-1990, [CO2]=350 ppm), 2020 (average of the period 2010-2030, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=415 ppm) and 2040 (average of the period 2030-2050, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=480 ppm). The effect of extreme climate events (i.e. heat stress at anthesis stage) was also considered. The outputs of these simulations were used to estimate the expected payout per hectare from insurance triggered when yields fall below a specific threshold defined as "the insured yield". For each site, the threshold was calculated as a fraction (70%) of the median of yield distribution under PP that represents the percentage of median yield above which indemnity payments are triggered. The results indicated that when the effect of extreme events was not considered, climate change had a low or no impact on crop yield distribution in 2020 and 2040. This resulted into an expected payout close to what observed in the present period. Conversely, the simulation of the effect of extreme events highly affected the PDFs by reducing the expected yield. This highlights that insured yield in future projections may be overestimated when not considering the impact of extremes, leading to distortions in the risk management of crop insurance companies. References Moriondo M, Giannakopoulos C, Bindi M (2011) Climate ch'ange impact assessment: the role of climate extremes in crop yield simulation. Clim Change 104:679-701 Sherrick BJ, Zanini FC, Schnitkey GD, Irwin SH (2004) Crop Insurance Valuation under Alternative Yield Distributions. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 86:406-419. van der Linden P, Mitchell JFB (eds) (2009) ENSEMBLES: climate change and its impacts: summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3 PB, UK. 160 pp

Soil Water Holding Capacity Mitigates Downside Risk and Volatility in US Rainfed Maize: Time to Invest in Soil Organic Matter?

PubMed Central

Williams, Alwyn; Hunter, Mitchell C.; Kammerer, Melanie; Kane, Daniel A.; Jordan, Nicholas R.; Mortensen, David A.; Smith, Richard G.; Snapp, Sieglinde

2016-01-01

Yield stability is fundamental to global food security in the face of climate change, and better strategies are needed for buffering crop yields against increased weather variability. Regional- scale analyses of yield stability can support robust inferences about buffering strategies for widely-grown staple crops, but have not been accomplished. We present a novel analytical approach, synthesizing 2000–2014 data on weather and soil factors to quantify their impact on county-level maize yield stability in four US states that vary widely in these factors (Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania). Yield stability is quantified as both ‘downside risk’ (minimum yield potential, MYP) and ‘volatility’ (temporal yield variability). We show that excessive heat and drought decreased mean yields and yield stability, while higher precipitation increased stability. Soil water holding capacity strongly affected yield volatility in all four states, either directly (Minnesota and Pennsylvania) or indirectly, via its effects on MYP (Illinois and Michigan). We infer that factors contributing to soil water holding capacity can help buffer maize yields against variable weather. Given that soil water holding capacity responds (within limits) to agronomic management, our analysis highlights broadly relevant management strategies for buffering crop yields against climate variability, and informs region-specific strategies. PMID:27560666

Probabilistic Description of the Hydrologic Risk in Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vico, G.; Porporato, A. M.

2011-12-01

Supplemental irrigation represents one of the main strategies to mitigate the effects of climatic variability on agroecosystems productivity and profitability, at the expenses of increasing water requirements for irrigation purposes. Optimizing water allocation for crop yield preservation and sustainable development needs to account for hydro-climatic variability, which is by far the main source of uncertainty affecting crop yields and irrigation water requirements. In this contribution, a widely applicable probabilistic framework is proposed to quantitatively define the hydrologic risk of yield reduction for both rainfed and irrigated agriculture. The occurrence of rainfall events and irrigation applications are linked probabilistically to crop development during the growing season. Based on these linkages, long-term and real-time yield reduction risk indices are defined as a function of climate, soil and crop parameters, as well as irrigation strategy. The former risk index is suitable for long-term irrigation strategy assessment and investment planning, while the latter risk index provides a rigorous probabilistic quantification of the emergence of drought conditions during a single growing season. This probabilistic framework allows also assessing the impact of limited water availability on crop yield, thus guiding the optimal allocation of water resources for human and environmental needs. Our approach employs relatively few parameters and is thus easily and broadly applicable to different crops and sites, under current and future climate scenarios, thus facilitating the assessment of the impact of increasingly frequent water shortages on agricultural productivity, profitability, and sustainability.

Crop juxtaposition affects cotton fiber quality in Georgia farmscapes.

PubMed

Toews, Michael D; Shurley, W Donald

2009-08-01

Phytophagous stink bugs (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), including green stink bug [Acrosternum hilare (Say)], southern green stink bug [Nezara viridula (L.)], and brown stink bug [Euschistus servus (Say)], have become a serious production issue for southeastern U.S. cotton, Gossypium hirsutum L., growers. To investigate how different agronomic crops may affect stink bug damage and fiber quality in neighboring cotton fields, replicated 1.6-2.0-ha trials were planted with corn (Zea mays L.), peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.), and soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] bordering a centrally located cotton plot (each of the four crops composed of approximately 0.4-0.5 ha per trial). Three trials were conducted in 2007 and three additional trials were conducted in 2008. Stink bug damage in the cotton plot was sampled weekly during weeks 3 through 6 of bloom at distances of 0.5, 5.3, 9.6, and 18.7 m from the adjacent crop. At the end of the year, representative lint samples at distances of 0.5, 9.6, 18.7, and 31.8 m from each adjacent crop were mechanically harvested, ginned, and classed. Results show that boll damage, seedcotton yield, gin turnout, fiber color, and lint value were negatively affected when the cotton was located adjacent to peanut and soybean. Regardless of the adjacent crop, there were no differences among yield and fiber quality parameters comparing seedcotton obtained 18.7 m from the plot edge and samples obtained from the middle of the cotton plot (approximately 31.8 m from an adjacent crop). These data suggest that integrated pest management programs for the stink bug complex in cotton may include farmscape level planning and targeted interventions as opposed to a crop specific management approach.

Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P. J.; Rötter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P. K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A. J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, R.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L. A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O'Leary, G.; Olesen, J. E.; Osborne, T. M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M. A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J. W.; Williams, J. R.; Wolf, J.

2013-09-01

Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models are difficult. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development andpolicymaking.

Importance of rhizobia in Agriculture: potential of the commercial inoculants and native strains for improving legume yields in different land-use systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lesueur, D.; Atieno, M.; Mathu, S.; Herrmann, L.

2012-04-01

Legumes play an important role in the traditional diets of many regions throughout the world because they provide a multitude of benefits to both the soil and other crops grown in combination with them or following them in several cropping systems. The ability of legumes to fix atmospheric nitrogen in association with rhizobia gives them the capacity to grow in very degraded soils. But do we have to systematically inoculate legumes? For example our results suggested that the systematic inoculation of both cowpea and green gram in Kenya with commercial inoculants to improve yields is not really justified, native strains performing better than inoculated strains. But when native rhizobia nodulating legumes are not naturally present, application of rhizobial inoculants is very commonly used. Our results showed that the utilization of effective good-quality rhizobial inoculants by farmers have a real potential to improve legume yields in unfertile soils requesting high applications of mineral fertilizers. For example an effective soybean commercial inoculants was tested in different locations in Kenya (in about 150 farms in 3 mandate areas presenting different soil characteristics and environmental conditions). Application of the rhizobial inoculant significantly increased the soybean yields in all mandate areas (about 75% of the farms). Nodule occupancy analysis showed that a high number of nodules occupied by the inoculated strain did not obviously lead to an increase of soybean production. Soil factors (pH, P, C, N…) seemed to affect the inoculant efficiency whether the strain is occupying the nodules or not. Our statistic analysis showed that soil pH significantly affected nodulation and yield, though the effect was variable depending on the region. We concluded that the competitiveness of rhizobial strains might not be the main factor explaining the effect (or lack of) of legumes inoculation in the field. Another study was aiming to assess if several factors such as cropping systems, N fertilization and application of crop residues affect the genetic diversity of native strains of rhizobia nodulating soybean in Kenya without any inoculation. Results showed that nodulation was not significantly affected by the different factors except N fertilization, regardless the season. Nodule occupancy revealed only 3 main profiles representing 93.6% and 92.5% of all the RFLP profiles obtained from 2008 and 2009 nodules respectively. This suggested a low diversity of native rhizobial strains capable to nodulate the promiscuous variety. The cropping system, Nitrogen and Residue applications didn't increase the diversity of the rhizobia but results indicated an effect on the distribution of the 3 profiles within the nodules of the plants. Within same treatments, significant differences were found between the two seasons in term of strains occupying the nodules. It could be explained by the shorter rainfall received in 2008 compared to 2009. Results suggest that cropping systems and both N and crop residues applications affect more specifically plant growth and grain yields than the diversity of the native rhizobia nodulating promiscuous soybean variety. Our work shows how diverse are the factors influencing the success of the field rhizobial inoculation of legumes.

Corn and soybean Landsat MSS classification performance as a function of scene characteristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Batista, G. T.; Hixson, M. M.; Bauer, M. E.

1982-01-01

In order to fully utilize remote sensing to inventory crop production, it is important to identify the factors that affect the accuracy of Landsat classifications. The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of scene characteristics involving crop, soil, and weather variables on the accuracy of Landsat classifications of corn and soybeans. Segments sampling the U.S. Corn Belt were classified using a Gaussian maximum likelihood classifier on multitemporally registered data from two key acquisition periods. Field size had a strong effect on classification accuracy with small fields tending to have low accuracies even when the effect of mixed pixels was eliminated. Other scene characteristics accounting for variability in classification accuracy included proportions of corn and soybeans, crop diversity index, proportion of all field crops, soil drainage, slope, soil order, long-term average soybean yield, maximum yield, relative position of the segment in the Corn Belt, weather, and crop development stage.

Electrical resistivity tomography to delineate greenhouse soil variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, R.; Amato, M.; Bitella, G.; Bochicchio, R.

2013-03-01

Appropriate management of soil spatial variability is an important tool for optimizing farming inputs, with the result of yield increase and reduction of the environmental impact in field crops. Under greenhouses, several factors such as non-uniform irrigation and localized soil compaction can severely affect yield and quality. Additionally, if soil spatial variability is not taken into account, yield deficiencies are often compensated by extra-volumes of crop inputs; as a result, over-irrigation and overfertilization in some parts of the field may occur. Technology for spatially sound management of greenhouse crops is therefore needed to increase yield and quality and to address sustainability. In this experiment, 2D-electrical resistivity tomography was used as an exploratory tool to characterize greenhouse soil variability and its relations to wild rocket yield. Soil resistivity well matched biomass variation (R2=0.70), and was linked to differences in soil bulk density (R2=0.90), and clay content (R2=0.77). Electrical resistivity tomography shows a great potential in horticulture where there is a growing demand of sustainability coupled with the necessity of stabilizing yield and product quality.

Retrospective Analog Year Analyses Using NASA Satellite Data to Improve USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teng, William; Shannon, Harlan

2011-01-01

The USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) is responsible for monitoring weather and climate impacts on domestic and foreign crop development. One of WAOB's primary goals is to determine the net cumulative effect of weather and climate anomalies on final crop yields. To this end, a broad array of information is consulted, including maps, charts, and time series of recent weather, climate, and crop observations; numerical output from weather and crop models; and reports from the press, USDA attach s, and foreign governments. The resulting agricultural weather assessments are published in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, to keep farmers, policy makers, and commercial agricultural interests informed of weather and climate impacts on agriculture. Because both the amount and timing of precipitation significantly affect crop yields, WAOB often uses precipitation time series to identify growing seasons with similar weather patterns and help estimate crop yields for the current growing season, based on observed yields in analog years. Historically, these analog years are visually identified; however, the qualitative nature of this method sometimes precludes the definitive identification of the best analog year. Thus, one goal of this study is to derive a more rigorous, statistical approach for identifying analog years, based on a modified coefficient of determination, termed the analog index (AI). A second goal is to compare the performance of AI for time series derived from surface-based observations vs. satellite-based measurements (NASA TRMM and other data).

Cover crops and tillage in a mature Merlot vineyard affect yields and cluster weight but not nutrition

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Permanent cover crops are commonly used in vineyard floor management because of their beneficial effects to soil and vine health, but studies evaluating their competitive effects on vines have been conducted primarily in non-irrigated vineyards. Future air quality regulations could mandate the use o...

How Does Recycling of Livestock Manure in Agroecosystems Affect Crop Productivity, Reactive Nitrogen Losses, and Soil Carbon Balance?

PubMed

Xia, Longlong; Lam, Shu Kee; Yan, Xiaoyuan; Chen, Deli

2017-07-05

Recycling of livestock manure in agroecosystems to partially substitute synthetic fertilizer nitrogen (N) input is recommended to alleviate the environmental degradation associated with synthetic N fertilization, which may also affect food security and soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, how substituting livestock manure for synthetic N fertilizer affects crop productivity (crop yield; crop N uptake; N use efficiency), reactive N (Nr) losses (ammonia (NH 3 ) emission, N leaching and runoff), GHG (methane, CH 4 ; and nitrous oxide, N 2 O; carbon dioxide) emissions and soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration in agroecosystems is not well understood. We conducted a global meta-analysis of 141 studies and found that substituting livestock manure for synthetic N fertilizer (with equivalent N rate) significantly increased crop yield by 4.4% and significantly decreased Nr losses via NH 3 emission by 26.8%, N leaching by 28.9% and N runoff by 26.2%. Moreover, annual SOC sequestration was significantly increased by 699.6 and 401.4 kg C ha -1 yr -1 in upland and paddy fields, respectively; CH 4 emission from paddy field was significantly increased by 41.2%, but no significant change of that was observed from upland field; N 2 O emission was not significantly affected by manure substitution in upland or paddy fields. In terms of net soil carbon balance, substituting manure for fertilizer increased carbon sink in upland field, but increased carbon source in paddy field. These results suggest that recycling of livestock manure in agroecosystems improves crop productivity, reduces Nr pollution and increases SOC storage. To attenuate the enhanced carbon source in paddy field, appropriate livestock manure management practices should be adopted.

The economic and environmental consequences of implementing nitrogen-efficient technologies and management practices in agriculture.

PubMed

Zhang, Xin; Mauzerall, Denise L; Davidson, Eric A; Kanter, David R; Cai, Ruohong

2015-03-01

Technologies and management practices (TMPs) that reduce the application of nitrogen (N) fertilizer while maintaining crop yields can improve N use efficiency (NUE) and are important tools for meeting the dual challenges of increasing food production and reducing N pollution. However, because farmers operate to maximize their profits, incentives to implement TMPs are limited, and TMP implementation will not always reduce N pollution. Therefore, we have developed the NUE Economic and Environmental impact analytical framework (NUE) to examine the economic and environmental consequences of implementing TMPs in agriculture, with a specific focus on farmer profits, N fertilizer consumption, N losses, and cropland demand. Our analytical analyses show that impact of TMPs on farmers' economic decision-making and the environment is affected by how TMPs change the yield ceiling and the N fertilization rate at the ceiling and by how the prices of TMPs, fertilizer, and crops vary. Technologies and management practices that increase the yield ceiling appear to create a greater economic incentive for farmers than TMPs that do not but may result in higher N application rates and excess N losses. Nevertheless, the negative environmental impacts of certain TMPs could be avoided if their price stays within a range determined by TMP yield response, fertilizer price, and crop price. We use a case study on corn production in the midwestern United States to demonstrate how NUE can be applied to farmers' economic decision-making and policy analysis. Our NUE framework provides an important tool for policymakers to understand how combinations of fertilizer, crop, and TMP prices affect the possibility of achieving win-win outcomes for farmers and the environment. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Soil mulching significantly enhances yields and water and nitrogen use efficiencies of maize and wheat: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Qin, Wei; Hu, Chunsheng; Oenema, Oene

2015-01-01

Global crop yields are limited by water and nutrient availability. Soil mulching (with plastic or straw) reduces evaporation, modifies soil temperature and thereby affects crop yields. Reported effects of mulching are sometimes contradictory, likely due to differences in climatic conditions, soil characteristics, crop species, and also water and nitrogen (N) input levels. Here we report on a meta-analysis of the effects of mulching on wheat and maize, using 1310 yield observations from 74 studies conducted in 19 countries. Our results indicate that mulching significantly increased yields, WUE (yield per unit water) and NUE (yield per unit N) by up to 60%, compared with no-mulching. Effects were larger for maize than wheat, and larger for plastic mulching than straw mulching. Interestingly, plastic mulching performed better at relatively low temperature while straw mulching showed the opposite trend. Effects of mulching also tended to decrease with increasing water input. Mulching effects were not related to soil organic matter content. In conclusion, soil mulching can significantly increase maize and wheat yields, WUE and NUE, and thereby may contribute to closing the yield gap between attainable and actual yields, especially in dryland and low nutrient input agriculture. The management of soil mulching requires site-specific knowledge. PMID:26586114

Soil mulching significantly enhances yields and water and nitrogen use efficiencies of maize and wheat: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Qin, Wei; Hu, Chunsheng; Oenema, Oene

2015-11-20

Global crop yields are limited by water and nutrient availability. Soil mulching (with plastic or straw) reduces evaporation, modifies soil temperature and thereby affects crop yields. Reported effects of mulching are sometimes contradictory, likely due to differences in climatic conditions, soil characteristics, crop species, and also water and nitrogen (N) input levels. Here we report on a meta-analysis of the effects of mulching on wheat and maize, using 1310 yield observations from 74 studies conducted in 19 countries. Our results indicate that mulching significantly increased yields, WUE (yield per unit water) and NUE (yield per unit N) by up to 60%, compared with no-mulching. Effects were larger for maize than wheat, and larger for plastic mulching than straw mulching. Interestingly, plastic mulching performed better at relatively low temperature while straw mulching showed the opposite trend. Effects of mulching also tended to decrease with increasing water input. Mulching effects were not related to soil organic matter content. In conclusion, soil mulching can significantly increase maize and wheat yields, WUE and NUE, and thereby may contribute to closing the yield gap between attainable and actual yields, especially in dryland and low nutrient input agriculture. The management of soil mulching requires site-specific knowledge.

Soil mulching significantly enhances yields and water and nitrogen use efficiencies of maize and wheat: a meta-analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Wei; Hu, Chunsheng; Oenema, Oene

2015-11-01

Global crop yields are limited by water and nutrient availability. Soil mulching (with plastic or straw) reduces evaporation, modifies soil temperature and thereby affects crop yields. Reported effects of mulching are sometimes contradictory, likely due to differences in climatic conditions, soil characteristics, crop species, and also water and nitrogen (N) input levels. Here we report on a meta-analysis of the effects of mulching on wheat and maize, using 1310 yield observations from 74 studies conducted in 19 countries. Our results indicate that mulching significantly increased yields, WUE (yield per unit water) and NUE (yield per unit N) by up to 60%, compared with no-mulching. Effects were larger for maize than wheat, and larger for plastic mulching than straw mulching. Interestingly, plastic mulching performed better at relatively low temperature while straw mulching showed the opposite trend. Effects of mulching also tended to decrease with increasing water input. Mulching effects were not related to soil organic matter content. In conclusion, soil mulching can significantly increase maize and wheat yields, WUE and NUE, and thereby may contribute to closing the yield gap between attainable and actual yields, especially in dryland and low nutrient input agriculture. The management of soil mulching requires site-specific knowledge.

Evaluating a satellite-based seasonal evapotranspiration product and identifying its relationship with other satellite-derived products and crop yield: A case study for Ethiopia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tadesse, Tsegaye; Senay, Gabriel B.; Berhan, Getachew; Regassa, Teshome; Beyene, Shimelis

2015-01-01

Satellite-derived evapotranspiration anomalies and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) products from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data are currently used for African agricultural drought monitoring and food security status assessment. In this study, a process to evaluate satellite-derived evapotranspiration (ETa) products with a geospatial statistical exploratory technique that uses NDVI, satellite-derived rainfall estimate (RFE), and crop yield data has been developed. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the ETa using the NDVI and RFE, and identify a relationship between the ETa and Ethiopia’s cereal crop (i.e., teff, sorghum, corn/maize, barley, and wheat) yields during the main rainy season. Since crop production is one of the main factors affecting food security, the evaluation of remote sensing-based seasonal ETa was done to identify the appropriateness of this tool as a proxy for monitoring vegetation condition in drought vulnerable and food insecure areas to support decision makers. The results of this study showed that the comparison between seasonal ETa and RFE produced strong correlation (R2 > 0.99) for all 41 crop growing zones in Ethiopia. The results of the spatial regression analyses of seasonal ETa and NDVI using Ordinary Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression showed relatively weak yearly spatial relationships (R2 < 0.7) for all cropping zones. However, for each individual crop zones, the correlation between NDVI and ETa ranged between 0.3 and 0.84 for about 44% of the cropping zones. Similarly, for each individual crop zones, the correlation (R2) between the seasonal ETa anomaly and de-trended cereal crop yield was between 0.4 and 0.82 for 76% (31 out of 41) of the crop growing zones. The preliminary results indicated that the ETa products have a good predictive potential for these 31 identified zones in Ethiopia. Decision makers may potentially use ETa products for monitoring cereal crop yields and early warning of food insecurity during drought years for these identified zones.

Evaluating a satellite-based seasonal evapotranspiration product and identifying its relationship with other satellite-derived products and crop yield: A case study for Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadesse, Tsegaye; Senay, Gabriel B.; Berhan, Getachew; Regassa, Teshome; Beyene, Shimelis

2015-08-01

Satellite-derived evapotranspiration anomalies and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) products from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data are currently used for African agricultural drought monitoring and food security status assessment. In this study, a process to evaluate satellite-derived evapotranspiration (ETa) products with a geospatial statistical exploratory technique that uses NDVI, satellite-derived rainfall estimate (RFE), and crop yield data has been developed. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the ETa using the NDVI and RFE, and identify a relationship between the ETa and Ethiopia's cereal crop (i.e., teff, sorghum, corn/maize, barley, and wheat) yields during the main rainy season. Since crop production is one of the main factors affecting food security, the evaluation of remote sensing-based seasonal ETa was done to identify the appropriateness of this tool as a proxy for monitoring vegetation condition in drought vulnerable and food insecure areas to support decision makers. The results of this study showed that the comparison between seasonal ETa and RFE produced strong correlation (R2 > 0.99) for all 41 crop growing zones in Ethiopia. The results of the spatial regression analyses of seasonal ETa and NDVI using Ordinary Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression showed relatively weak yearly spatial relationships (R2 < 0.7) for all cropping zones. However, for each individual crop zones, the correlation between NDVI and ETa ranged between 0.3 and 0.84 for about 44% of the cropping zones. Similarly, for each individual crop zones, the correlation (R2) between the seasonal ETa anomaly and de-trended cereal crop yield was between 0.4 and 0.82 for 76% (31 out of 41) of the crop growing zones. The preliminary results indicated that the ETa products have a good predictive potential for these 31 identified zones in Ethiopia. Decision makers may potentially use ETa products for monitoring cereal crop yields and early warning of food insecurity during drought years for these identified zones.

Crop-climate relationships of cereals in Greece and the impacts of recent climate trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mavromatis, Theodoros

2015-05-01

Notwithstanding technological developments, agricultural production is still affected by uncontrollable factors, such weather and climate. Within this context, the present study aims at exploring the relative influence of growing season climate on the yields of major cereals (hard and soft wheat, maize, and barley) on a regional scale in Greece. To this end, crop-climate relationships and the impacts of climate trends over the period 1978-2005 were explored using linear regression and change point analysis (CPA). Climate data used include maximum (Tx) and minimum temperature (Tn), diurnal temperature range (Tr), precipitation (Prec), and solar radiation (Rad). Temperature effects were the most substantial. Yields reduced by 1.8-7.1 %/°C with increasing Tx and by 1.4-6.1 %/°C with decreasing Tr. The warming trends of Tn caused bilateral yield effects (from -3.7 to 8.4 %/°C). The fewer significantly increasing Rad and decreasing Prec anomalies were associated with larger yield decreases (within the range of 2.2 % MJ/m2/day (for maize) to 4.9 % MJ/m2/day (for hard wheat)) and smaller yield increases (from 0.04 to 1.4 %/mm per decade), respectively. Wheat and barley—the most vulnerable cereals—were most affected by the trends of extreme temperatures and least by Tr. On the contrary, solar radiation has proven to be the least affecting climate variable on all cereals. Despite the similarity in the direction of crop responses with both analyses, yield changes were much more substantial in the case of CPA analysis. In conclusion, regional climate change has affected Greek cereal productivity, in a few, but important for cereal production, regions. The results of this study are expected to be valuable in anticipating the effects of weather/climate on other warm regions worldwide, where the upper temperature limit for some cereals and further changes in climate may push them past suitability for their cultivation.

Seeing is believing I: The use of thermal sensing from satellite imagery to predict crop yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

B, Potgieter A.; D, Rodriguez; B, Power; J, Mclean; P, Davis

2014-02-01

Volatility in crop production has been part of the Australian environment since cropping began with the arrival of the first European settlers. Climate variability is the main factor affecting crop production at national, state and local scales. At field level spatial patterns on yield production are also determined by spatially changing soil properties in interaction with seasonal climate conditions and weather patterns at critical stages in the crop development. Here we used a combination of field level weather records, canopy characteristics, and satellite information to determine the spatial performance of a large field of wheat. The main objective of this research is to determine the ability of remote sensing technologies to capture yield losses due to water stress at the canopy level. The yield, canopy characteristics (i.e. canopy temperature and ground cover) and seasonal conditions of a field of wheat (~1400ha) (-29.402° South and 149.508°, New South Wales, Australia) were continuously monitored during the winter of 2011. Weather and crop variables were continuously monitored by installing three automatic weather stations in a transect covering different positions and soils in the landscape. Weather variables included rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures and relative humidity, and crop characteristics included ground cover and canopy temperature. Satellite imagery Landsat TM 5 and 7 was collected at five different stages in the crop cycle. Weather variables and crop characteristics were used to calculate a crop stress index (CSI) at point and field scale (39 fields). Field data was used to validate a spatial satellite image derived index. Spatial yield data was downloaded from the harvester at the different locations in the field. We used the thermal band (land surface temperature, LST) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) bands from the MODIS (250 m for visible bands and 1km for thermal band) and a derived EVI from Landsat TM 7 (25 m for visible and 90m for thermal) satellite platforms. Results showed that spatial variations in crop yield were related to a satellite derived canopy stress index (CSIsat) and a moisture stress index (MSIsat). A weather station level canopy stress index (CSIws) calculated at midday was correlated to the CSIsat at late morning. In addition, a strong linear relationship was observed between EVI and LST at point scale throughout the crop growth period. Differences were smallest at anthesis when the canopy closure was highest. This suggests that LST imagery data around flowering could be used to calculate crop stress over large areas of the crop. The harvested yield was related (R2 = 0.67) to CSIsat using a fix date across all fields. This relationship improved (R2 = 0.92) using both indices from all five dates across all fields during the crop growth period. Here we successfully showed that satellite derived crop attributes (CSIsat and MSIsat) can account for most of the variability in final crop yield and that they can be used to predict crop yield at field scales. Applications of these results could enhance the ability of producers to hedge their financial on -farm crop production losses due to in-season water stress by taking crop insurance. This is likely to further improve their adaptive capacity and thus strengthening the long-term viability of the industry domestically and elsewhere.

Multiyear high-resolution carbon exchange over European croplands from the integration of observed crop yields into CarbonTracker Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Combe, Marie; Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, Jordi; de Wit, Allard; Peters, Wouter

2016-04-01

Carbon exchange over croplands plays an important role in the European carbon cycle over daily-to-seasonal time scales. Not only do crops occupy one fourth of the European land area, but their photosynthesis and respiration are large and affect CO2 mole fractions at nearly every atmospheric CO2 monitoring site. A better description of this crop carbon exchange in our CarbonTracker Europe data assimilation system - which currently treats crops as unmanaged grasslands - could strongly improve its ability to constrain terrestrial carbon fluxes. Available long-term observations of crop yield, harvest, and cultivated area allow such improvements, when combined with the new crop-modeling framework we present. This framework can model the carbon fluxes of 10 major European crops at high spatial and temporal resolution, on a 12x12 km grid and 3-hourly time-step. The development of this framework is threefold: firstly, we optimize crop growth using the process-based WOrld FOod STudies (WOFOST) agricultural crop growth model. Simulated yields are downscaled to match regional crop yield observations from the Statistical Office of the European Union (EUROSTAT) by estimating a yearly regional parameter for each crop species: the yield gap factor. This step allows us to better represent crop phenology, to reproduce the observed multiannual European crop yields, and to construct realistic time series of the crop carbon fluxes (gross primary production, GPP, and autotrophic respiration, Raut) on a fine spatial and temporal resolution. Secondly, we combine these GPP and Raut fluxes with a simple soil respiration model to obtain the total ecosystem respiration (TER) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE). And thirdly, we represent the horizontal transport of carbon that follows crop harvest and its back-respiration into the atmosphere during harvest consumption. We distribute this carbon using observations of the density of human and ruminant populations from EUROSTAT. We assess the model's ability to represent the seasonal GPP, TER and NEE fluxes using observations at 6 European FluxNet winter wheat and grain maize sites and compare it with the fluxes of the current terrestrial carbon cycle model of CarbonTracker Europe: the Simple Biosphere - Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (SiBCASA) model. We find that the new model framework provides a detailed, realistic, and strongly observation-driven estimate of carbon exchange over European croplands. Its products will be made available to the scientific community through the ICOS Carbon Portal, and serve as a new cropland component in CarbonTracker Europe flux estimates.

Improving yield potential in crops under elevated CO2: Integrating the photosynthetic and nitrogen utilization efficiencies

PubMed Central

Kant, Surya; Seneweera, Saman; Rodin, Joakim; Materne, Michael; Burch, David; Rothstein, Steven J.; Spangenberg, German

2012-01-01

Increasing crop productivity to meet burgeoning human food demand is challenging under changing environmental conditions. Since industrial revolution atmospheric CO2 levels have linearly increased. Developing crop varieties with increased utilization of CO2 for photosynthesis is an urgent requirement to cope with the irreversible rise of atmospheric CO2 and achieve higher food production. The primary effects of elevated CO2 levels in most crop plants, particularly C3 plants, include increased biomass accumulation, although initial stimulation of net photosynthesis rate is only temporal and plants fail to sustain the maximal stimulation, a phenomenon known as photosynthesis acclimation. Despite this acclimation, grain yield is known to marginally increase under elevated CO2. The yield potential of C3 crops is limited by their capacity to exploit sufficient carbon. The “C fertilization” through elevated CO2 levels could potentially be used for substantial yield increase. Rubisco is the rate-limiting enzyme in photosynthesis and its activity is largely affected by atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen availability. In addition, maintenance of the C/N ratio is pivotal for various growth and development processes in plants governing yield and seed quality. For maximizing the benefits of elevated CO2, raising plant nitrogen pools will be necessary as part of maintaining an optimal C/N balance. In this review, we discuss potential causes for the stagnation in yield increases under elevated CO2 levels and explore possibilities to overcome this limitation by improved photosynthetic capacity and enhanced nitrogen use efficiency. Opportunities of engineering nitrogen uptake, assimilatory, and responsive genes are also discussed that could ensure optimal nitrogen allocation toward expanding source and sink tissues. This might avert photosynthetic acclimation partially or completely and drive for improved crop production under elevated CO2 levels. PMID:22833749

Improving yield potential in crops under elevated CO(2): Integrating the photosynthetic and nitrogen utilization efficiencies.

PubMed

Kant, Surya; Seneweera, Saman; Rodin, Joakim; Materne, Michael; Burch, David; Rothstein, Steven J; Spangenberg, German

2012-01-01

Increasing crop productivity to meet burgeoning human food demand is challenging under changing environmental conditions. Since industrial revolution atmospheric CO(2) levels have linearly increased. Developing crop varieties with increased utilization of CO(2) for photosynthesis is an urgent requirement to cope with the irreversible rise of atmospheric CO(2) and achieve higher food production. The primary effects of elevated CO(2) levels in most crop plants, particularly C(3) plants, include increased biomass accumulation, although initial stimulation of net photosynthesis rate is only temporal and plants fail to sustain the maximal stimulation, a phenomenon known as photosynthesis acclimation. Despite this acclimation, grain yield is known to marginally increase under elevated CO(2). The yield potential of C(3) crops is limited by their capacity to exploit sufficient carbon. The "C fertilization" through elevated CO(2) levels could potentially be used for substantial yield increase. Rubisco is the rate-limiting enzyme in photosynthesis and its activity is largely affected by atmospheric CO(2) and nitrogen availability. In addition, maintenance of the C/N ratio is pivotal for various growth and development processes in plants governing yield and seed quality. For maximizing the benefits of elevated CO(2), raising plant nitrogen pools will be necessary as part of maintaining an optimal C/N balance. In this review, we discuss potential causes for the stagnation in yield increases under elevated CO(2) levels and explore possibilities to overcome this limitation by improved photosynthetic capacity and enhanced nitrogen use efficiency. Opportunities of engineering nitrogen uptake, assimilatory, and responsive genes are also discussed that could ensure optimal nitrogen allocation toward expanding source and sink tissues. This might avert photosynthetic acclimation partially or completely and drive for improved crop production under elevated CO(2) levels.

Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J.; Brown, Molly E.; Sakurai, Gen; Yamagata, Toshio

2013-10-01

Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are thus exposed to variations in yields, production and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are therefore paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of important food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We found that moderate-to-marked yield loss over a substantial percentage (26-33%) of the harvested area of these crops is reliably predictable if climatic forecasts are near perfect. However, only rice and wheat production are reliably predictable at three months before the harvest using within-season hindcasts. The reliabilities of estimates varied substantially by crop--rice and wheat yields were the most predictable, followed by soybean and maize. The reasons for variation in the reliability of the estimates included the differences in crop sensitivity to the climate and the technology used by the crop-producing regions. Our findings reveal that the use of seasonal climatic forecasts to predict crop failures will be useful for monitoring global food production and will encourage the adaptation of food systems toclimatic extremes.

Bats and birds increase crop yield in tropical agroforestry landscapes.

PubMed

Maas, Bea; Clough, Yann; Tscharntke, Teja

2013-12-01

Human welfare is significantly linked to ecosystem services such as the suppression of pest insects by birds and bats. However, effects of biocontrol services on tropical cash crop yield are still largely unknown. For the first time, we manipulated the access of birds and bats in an exclosure experiment (day, night and full exclosures compared to open controls in Indonesian cacao agroforestry) and quantified the arthropod communities, the fruit development and the final yield over a long time period (15 months). We found that bat and bird exclusion increased insect herbivore abundance, despite the concurrent release of mesopredators such as ants and spiders, and negatively affected fruit development, with final crop yield decreasing by 31% across local (shade cover) and landscape (distance to primary forest) gradients. Our results highlight the tremendous economic impact of common insectivorous birds and bats, which need to become an essential part of sustainable landscape management. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Effects of combined amendments on crop yield and cadmium uptake in two cadmium contaminated soils under rice-wheat rotation.

PubMed

Guo, Fuyu; Ding, Changfeng; Zhou, Zhigao; Huang, Gaoxiang; Wang, Xingxiang

2018-02-01

Soil cadmium (Cd) contamination in China has become a serious concern due to its high toxicity to human health through food chains. A pot experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of hydrated lime (L), hydroxyapatite (H) and organic fertilizer (F) alone or in combination to remedy a mild (DY) and a moderate (YX) Cd contaminated agricultural soil under rice-wheat rotation. Results showed that crops grain yield and Cd concentration, soil pH, CaCl 2 extractable Cd and Cd speciation were markedly affected by the amendments. In both cropping seasons, hydrated lime and hydroxyapatite significantly immobilized soil Cd, and hydroxyapatite, organic fertilizer significantly increased grain yield. Hydrated lime mainly increased soil carbonates bound Cd fractions resulted from 16.7% to 36.2% and from 16.8% to 28.3%, and hydroxyapatite increased Fe/Mn oxides Cd fractions from 19.3% to 33.4% and from 31.4% to 42.1% in the DY and YX soils, respectively; while organic fertilizer slightly increased soil exchangeable and organic matter bound Cd fractions. Besides, combined amendments contain alkaline materials and organic materials have the potential to decrease grain Cd and increase grain yield simultaneously. Therefore, in view of the effects of amendments on grain yield and Cd concentration, the cost as well as the potential benefits expected, combined amendments like hydrated lime + organic fertilizer, hydrated lime + hydroxyapatite + organic fertilizer are recommended in practical application. Mechanisms of Cd immobilization affected by amendments are mainly attributed to the changes in soil Cd availability and crops root uptake rather than internal translocation in plants. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Soil properties affecting wheat yields following drilling-fluid application.

PubMed

Bauder, T A; Barbarick, K A; Ippolito, J A; Shanahan, J F; Ayers, P D

2005-01-01

Oil and gas drilling operations use drilling fluids (mud) to lubricate the drill bit and stem, transport formation cuttings to the surface, and seal off porous geologic formations. Following completion of the well, waste drilling fluid is often applied to cropland. We studied potential changes in soil compaction as indicated by cone penetration resistance, pH, electrical conductivity (EC(e)), sodium adsorption ratio (SAR), extractable soil and total straw and grain trace metal and nutrient concentrations, and winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L. 'TAM 107') grain yield following water-based, bentonitic drilling-fluid application (0-94 Mg ha(-1)) to field test plots. Three methods of application (normal, splash-plate, and spreader-bar) were used to study compaction effects. We measured increasing SAR, EC(e), and pH with drilling-fluid rates, but not to levels detrimental to crop production. Field measurements revealed significantly higher compaction within areas affected by truck travel, but also not enough to affect crop yield. In three of four site years, neither drilling-fluid rate nor application method affected grain yield. Extractions representing plant availability and plant analyses results indicated that drilling fluid did not significantly increase most trace elements or nutrient concentrations. These results support land application of water-based bentonitic drilling fluids as an acceptable practice on well-drained soils using controlled rates.

Water and Land Limitations to Future Agricultural Production in the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koch, J. A. M.; Wimmer, F.; Schaldach, R.

2015-12-01

Countries in the Middle East use a large fraction of their scarce water resources to produce cash crops, such as fruit and vegetables, for international markets. At the same time, these countries import large amounts of staple crops, such as cereals, required to meet the nutritional demand of their populations. This makes food security in the Middle East heavily dependent on world market prices for staple crops. Under these preconditions, increasing food demand due to population growth, urban expansion on fertile farmlands, and detrimental effects of a changing climate on the production of agricultural commodities present major challenges to countries in the Middle East that try to improve food security by increasing their self-sufficiency rate of staple crops.We applied the spatio-temporal land-use change model LandSHIFT.JR to simulate how an expansion of urban areas may affect the production of agricultural commodities in Jordan. We furthermore evaluated how climate change and changes in socio-economic conditions may influence crop production. The focus of our analysis was on potential future irrigated and rainfed production (crop yield and area demand) of fruit, vegetables, and cereals. Our simulation results show that the expansion of urban areas and the resulting displacement of agricultural areas does result in a slight decrease in crop yields. This leads to almost no additional irrigation water requirements due to the relocation of agricultural areas, i.e. there is the same amount of "crop per drop". However, taking into account projected changes in socio-economic conditions and climate conditions, a large volume of water would be required for cereal production in order to safeguard current self-sufficiency rates for staple crops. Irrigation water requirements are expected to double until 2025 and to triple until 2050. Irrigated crop yields are projected to decrease by about 25%, whereas there is no decrease in rainfed crop yields to be expected.

Food for Thought: Crop Yields in the Columbia River Basin in an Altered Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajagopalan, K.; Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Nelson, R.; Stockle, C.; Kruger, C.; Brady, M.; Adam, J. C.

2013-12-01

Growth of global population and food consumption in the next several decades is expected to result in a food security challenge. Strategies to address this challenge, such as enhancing agricultural productivity and resiliency, need to be considered within the context of a full range of plausible consequences so as to identify investments that create win-win-win scenarios for the environment, economy, and society. Regional earth systems models can provide the necessary scale-appropriate framework to inform the decision making context for adaptation strategies, especially in the context of global change. In an altered future, changes to climate, technology and socioeconomics affect regional agriculture both directly and indirectly. These effects are not independent and an integrated process-based model may better capture unanticipated non-linear and non-monotonic responses and feedbacks over time . BioEarth is a research initiative designed to explore the coupling of multiple stand-alone earth systems models to generate usable information for agricultural and natural resource decision making at the regional scale at decadal time-steps. This project focuses on the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) region and is a framework that integrates atmospheric, terrestrial, aquatic, and economic models. We apply component models of BioEarth to the Columbia River basin in the PNW to study the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on regional irrigated and dryland crop yields for a variety of annual and perennial crops. Results indicate that the net effect of climate change on crop yields is dependent on the crop type. There is a negative effect of temperature on yields for most crops. Dryland winter wheat is a notable exception. With warming, although the available growing season increases, faster thermal accumulation results in a shorter time to maturity. Precipitation changes in the region have a positive impact on dryland agriculture. Carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization has a positive impact on crop yields for most crops. This positive impact is minimal for corn which is a C4 crop that is already CO2 efficient. The net response is an increase in yields for dryland agriculture and depends on the crop type for irrigated agriculture. Although, climate change results in increased water shortages and water rights curtailment in the region, this does not translate into an increased negative effect on yields. This could be attributed to higher water use efficiency under elevated CO2 levels as well crops getting through growth stages earlier in the season with wetter spring conditions. The non linear and non monotonic nature of the response of climate change on crop yields is discussed. In accounting for biophysical effects of climate change on crop yields, socio-economic effects cannot be ignored because biophysical effects are nested with the framework of human decision making. We also discuss our results in the context of socioeconomic factors . Current results assume no adaptation strategies and incorporating this is our next step.

Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thornburn, P. J.; Rotter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.;

Glyphosate Effects on Plant Mineral Nutrition, Crop Rhizosphere Microbiota, and Plant Disease in Glyphosate-Resistant Crops

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Claims have been made recently that glyphosate-resistant (GR) crops sometimes have mineral deficiencies and increased plant disease. This review evaluates the literature that is germane to these claims. Our conclusions are: (1) although there is conflicting literature on the effects of glyphosate on mineral nutrition on GR crops, most of the literature indicates that mineral nutrition in GR crops is not affected by either the GR trait or by application of glyphosate; (2) most of the available data support the view that neither the GR transgenes nor glyphosate use in GR crops increases crop disease; and (3) yield data on GR crops do not support the hypotheses that there are substantive mineral nutrition or disease problems that are specific to GR crops. PMID:23013354

Genetic diversity of papaya ring spot virus in Puerto Rico

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that 20-40% of crop yield is lost due to pests and diseases. Viruses are agents that cause diseases which contribute greatly to the global yield loss. Because of this, food production is negatively affected, especially in the tropics. Carica papaya, co...

Digital Mapping of Soil Salinity and Crop Yield across a Coastal Agricultural Landscape Using Repeated Electromagnetic Induction (EMI) Surveys

PubMed Central

Yao, Rongjiang; Yang, Jingsong; Wu, Danhua; Xie, Wenping; Gao, Peng; Jin, Wenhui

2016-01-01

Reliable and real-time information on soil and crop properties is important for the development of management practices in accordance with the requirements of a specific soil and crop within individual field units. This is particularly the case in salt-affected agricultural landscape where managing the spatial variability of soil salinity is essential to minimize salinization and maximize crop output. The primary objectives were to use linear mixed-effects model for soil salinity and crop yield calibration with horizontal and vertical electromagnetic induction (EMI) measurements as ancillary data, to characterize the spatial distribution of soil salinity and crop yield and to verify the accuracy of spatial estimation. Horizontal and vertical EMI (type EM38) measurements at 252 locations were made during each survey, and root zone soil samples and crop samples at 64 sampling sites were collected. This work was periodically conducted on eight dates from June 2012 to May 2013 in a coastal salt-affected mud farmland. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and restricted maximum likelihood (REML) were applied to calibrate root zone soil salinity (ECe) and crop annual output (CAO) using ancillary data, and spatial distribution of soil ECe and CAO was generated using digital soil mapping (DSM) and the precision of spatial estimation was examined using the collected meteorological and groundwater data. Results indicated that a reduced model with EMh as a predictor was satisfactory for root zone ECe calibration, whereas a full model with both EMh and EMv as predictors met the requirement of CAO calibration. The obtained distribution maps of ECe showed consistency with those of EMI measurements at the corresponding time, and the spatial distribution of CAO generated from ancillary data showed agreement with that derived from raw crop data. Statistics of jackknifing procedure confirmed that the spatial estimation of ECe and CAO exhibited reliability and high accuracy. A general increasing trend of ECe was observed and moderately saline and very saline soils were predominant during the survey period. The temporal dynamics of root zone ECe coincided with those of daily rainfall, water table and groundwater data. Long-range EMI surveys and data collection are needed to capture the spatial and temporal variability of soil and crop parameters. Such results allowed us to conclude that, cost-effective and efficient EMI surveys, as one part of multi-source data for DSM, could be successfully used to characterize the spatial variability of soil salinity, to monitor the spatial and temporal dynamics of soil salinity, and to spatially estimate potential crop yield. PMID:27203697

Digital Mapping of Soil Salinity and Crop Yield across a Coastal Agricultural Landscape Using Repeated Electromagnetic Induction (EMI) Surveys.

PubMed

Yao, Rongjiang; Yang, Jingsong; Wu, Danhua; Xie, Wenping; Gao, Peng; Jin, Wenhui

2016-01-01

Reliable and real-time information on soil and crop properties is important for the development of management practices in accordance with the requirements of a specific soil and crop within individual field units. This is particularly the case in salt-affected agricultural landscape where managing the spatial variability of soil salinity is essential to minimize salinization and maximize crop output. The primary objectives were to use linear mixed-effects model for soil salinity and crop yield calibration with horizontal and vertical electromagnetic induction (EMI) measurements as ancillary data, to characterize the spatial distribution of soil salinity and crop yield and to verify the accuracy of spatial estimation. Horizontal and vertical EMI (type EM38) measurements at 252 locations were made during each survey, and root zone soil samples and crop samples at 64 sampling sites were collected. This work was periodically conducted on eight dates from June 2012 to May 2013 in a coastal salt-affected mud farmland. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and restricted maximum likelihood (REML) were applied to calibrate root zone soil salinity (ECe) and crop annual output (CAO) using ancillary data, and spatial distribution of soil ECe and CAO was generated using digital soil mapping (DSM) and the precision of spatial estimation was examined using the collected meteorological and groundwater data. Results indicated that a reduced model with EMh as a predictor was satisfactory for root zone ECe calibration, whereas a full model with both EMh and EMv as predictors met the requirement of CAO calibration. The obtained distribution maps of ECe showed consistency with those of EMI measurements at the corresponding time, and the spatial distribution of CAO generated from ancillary data showed agreement with that derived from raw crop data. Statistics of jackknifing procedure confirmed that the spatial estimation of ECe and CAO exhibited reliability and high accuracy. A general increasing trend of ECe was observed and moderately saline and very saline soils were predominant during the survey period. The temporal dynamics of root zone ECe coincided with those of daily rainfall, water table and groundwater data. Long-range EMI surveys and data collection are needed to capture the spatial and temporal variability of soil and crop parameters. Such results allowed us to conclude that, cost-effective and efficient EMI surveys, as one part of multi-source data for DSM, could be successfully used to characterize the spatial variability of soil salinity, to monitor the spatial and temporal dynamics of soil salinity, and to spatially estimate potential crop yield.

Assessing uncertainties in crop and pasture ensemble model simulations of productivity and N2 O emissions.

PubMed

Ehrhardt, Fiona; Soussana, Jean-François; Bellocchi, Gianni; Grace, Peter; McAuliffe, Russel; Recous, Sylvie; Sándor, Renáta; Smith, Pete; Snow, Val; de Antoni Migliorati, Massimiliano; Basso, Bruno; Bhatia, Arti; Brilli, Lorenzo; Doltra, Jordi; Dorich, Christopher D; Doro, Luca; Fitton, Nuala; Giacomini, Sandro J; Grant, Brian; Harrison, Matthew T; Jones, Stephanie K; Kirschbaum, Miko U F; Klumpp, Katja; Laville, Patricia; Léonard, Joël; Liebig, Mark; Lieffering, Mark; Martin, Raphaël; Massad, Raia S; Meier, Elizabeth; Merbold, Lutz; Moore, Andrew D; Myrgiotis, Vasileios; Newton, Paul; Pattey, Elizabeth; Rolinski, Susanne; Sharp, Joanna; Smith, Ward N; Wu, Lianhai; Zhang, Qing

2018-02-01

Simulation models are extensively used to predict agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the uncertainties of (reduced) model ensemble simulations have not been assessed systematically for variables affecting food security and climate change mitigation, within multi-species agricultural contexts. We report an international model comparison and benchmarking exercise, showing the potential of multi-model ensembles to predict productivity and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions for wheat, maize, rice and temperate grasslands. Using a multi-stage modelling protocol, from blind simulations (stage 1) to partial (stages 2-4) and full calibration (stage 5), 24 process-based biogeochemical models were assessed individually or as an ensemble against long-term experimental data from four temperate grassland and five arable crop rotation sites spanning four continents. Comparisons were performed by reference to the experimental uncertainties of observed yields and N 2 O emissions. Results showed that across sites and crop/grassland types, 23%-40% of the uncalibrated individual models were within two standard deviations (SD) of observed yields, while 42 (rice) to 96% (grasslands) of the models were within 1 SD of observed N 2 O emissions. At stage 1, ensembles formed by the three lowest prediction model errors predicted both yields and N 2 O emissions within experimental uncertainties for 44% and 33% of the crop and grassland growth cycles, respectively. Partial model calibration (stages 2-4) markedly reduced prediction errors of the full model ensemble E-median for crop grain yields (from 36% at stage 1 down to 4% on average) and grassland productivity (from 44% to 27%) and to a lesser and more variable extent for N 2 O emissions. Yield-scaled N 2 O emissions (N 2 O emissions divided by crop yields) were ranked accurately by three-model ensembles across crop species and field sites. The potential of using process-based model ensembles to predict jointly productivity and N 2 O emissions at field scale is discussed. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ozone Induced Premature Mortality and Crop Yield Loss in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Y.; Jiang, F.; Wang, H.

2017-12-01

Exposure to ambient ozone is a major risk factor for health impacts such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and cause damage to plant and agricultural crops. But these impacts were usually evaluated separately in earlier studies. We apply Community Multi-scale Air Quality model to simulate the ambient O3 concentration at a resolution of 36 km×36 km across China. Then, we follow Global Burden of Diseases approach and AOT40 (i.e., above a threshold of 40 ppb) metric to estimate the premature mortalities and yield losses of major grain crops (i.e., winter wheat, rice and corn) across China due to surface ozone exposure, respectively. Our results show that ozone exposure leads to nearly 67,700 premature mortalities and 145 billion USD losses in 2014. The ozone induced yield losses of all crop production totaled 78 (49.9-112.6)million metric tons, worth 5.3 (3.4-7.6)billion USD, in China. The relative yield losses ranged from 8.5-14% for winter wheat, 3.9-15% for rice, and 2.2-5.5% for maize. We can see that the top four health affected provinces (Sichuan, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu) are also ranking on the winter wheat and rice crop yield loss. Our results provide further evidence that surface ozone pollution is becoming urgent air pollution in China, and have important policy implications for China to alleviate the impacts of air pollution.

Biomass yield and feeding value of rye, triticale, and wheat straw produced under a dual-purpose management system.

PubMed

Ates, S; Keles, G; Demirci, U; Dogan, S; Ben Salem, H

2017-11-01

Dual-purpose management of winter cereals for grazing and grain production provides highly nutritive forage for ruminants in the spring and may positively affect straw feeding value. A 2-yr study investigated the effect of spring defoliation of triticale, wheat, and rye at the tillering and stem elongation stages on total biomass, grain yields, and straw quality. Furthermore, straws of spring-defoliated and undefoliated (control) cereal crops were evaluated for nutritional value and voluntary intake as a means of assessing the efficiency of dual-purpose management systems from the winter feeding context as well. The feeding study consisted of 9 total mixed rations (TMR), each containing 35% triticale, rye, or wheat straw obtained under 3 spring-defoliation regimens. The TMR were individually fed to fifty-four 1-yr-old Anatolian Merino ewes for 28 d. Defoliation of the crops at tillering did not affect the total biomass production or grain yields. However, biomass and grain yields were reduced ( < 0.01) by 55 and 52%, respectively, in crops defoliated at stem elongation. Straw of spring-defoliated cereals had less NDF and ADF concentrations ( < 0.01) but greater CP ( < 0.01), nonfiber carbohydrates ( < 0.01), and ME concentrations ( < 0.01) compared with straw from undefoliated crops. The increase in the nutritive value of straw led to greater nutrient digestion ( < 0.01) and intake of DM and OM of ewes ( < 0.01). However, sheep live weight gain did not differ among treatments ( > 0.77). This study indicated that straw feeding value and digestibility can be increased through spring defoliation.

Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Maize Yield Water Constraints under Climate Change in Spain

PubMed Central

Ferrero, Rosana; Lima, Mauricio; Gonzalez-Andujar, Jose Luis

2014-01-01

Many studies have analyzed the impact of climate change on crop productivity, but comparing the performance of water management systems has rarely been explored. Because water supply and crop demand in agro-systems may be affected by global climate change in shaping the spatial patterns of agricultural production, we should evaluate how and where irrigation practices are effective in mitigating climate change effects. Here we have constructed simple, general models, based on biological mechanisms and a theoretical framework, which could be useful in explaining and predicting crop productivity dynamics. We have studied maize in irrigated and rain-fed systems at a provincial scale, from 1996 to 2009 in Spain, one of the most prominent “hot-spots” in future climate change projections. Our new approach allowed us to: (1) evaluate new structural properties such as the stability of crop yield dynamics, (2) detect nonlinear responses to climate change (thresholds and discontinuities), challenging the usual linear way of thinking, and (3) examine spatial patterns of yield losses due to water constraints and identify clusters of provinces that have been negatively affected by warming. We have reduced the uncertainty associated with climate change impacts on maize productivity by improving the understanding of the relative contributions of individual factors and providing a better spatial comprehension of the key processes. We have identified water stress and water management systems as being key causes of the yield gap, and detected vulnerable regions where efforts in research and policy should be prioritized in order to increase maize productivity. PMID:24878747

Spatio-temporal dynamics of maize yield water constraints under climate change in Spain.

PubMed

Ferrero, Rosana; Lima, Mauricio; Gonzalez-Andujar, Jose Luis

2014-01-01

Many studies have analyzed the impact of climate change on crop productivity, but comparing the performance of water management systems has rarely been explored. Because water supply and crop demand in agro-systems may be affected by global climate change in shaping the spatial patterns of agricultural production, we should evaluate how and where irrigation practices are effective in mitigating climate change effects. Here we have constructed simple, general models, based on biological mechanisms and a theoretical framework, which could be useful in explaining and predicting crop productivity dynamics. We have studied maize in irrigated and rain-fed systems at a provincial scale, from 1996 to 2009 in Spain, one of the most prominent "hot-spots" in future climate change projections. Our new approach allowed us to: (1) evaluate new structural properties such as the stability of crop yield dynamics, (2) detect nonlinear responses to climate change (thresholds and discontinuities), challenging the usual linear way of thinking, and (3) examine spatial patterns of yield losses due to water constraints and identify clusters of provinces that have been negatively affected by warming. We have reduced the uncertainty associated with climate change impacts on maize productivity by improving the understanding of the relative contributions of individual factors and providing a better spatial comprehension of the key processes. We have identified water stress and water management systems as being key causes of the yield gap, and detected vulnerable regions where efforts in research and policy should be prioritized in order to increase maize productivity.

Morphological plasticity of root growth under mild water stress increases water use efficiency without reducing yield in maize

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Qian; Zhang, Yulong; Sun, Zhanxiang; Zheng, Jiaming; Bai, Wei; Zhang, Yue; Liu, Yang; Feng, Liangshan; Feng, Chen; Zhang, Zhe; Yang, Ning; Evers, Jochem B.; Zhang, Lizhen

2017-08-01

A large yield gap exists in rain-fed maize (Zea mays L.) production in semi-arid regions, mainly caused by frequent droughts halfway through the crop-growing period due to uneven distribution of rainfall. It is questionable whether irrigation systems are economically required in such a region since the total amount of rainfall does generally meet crop requirements. This study aimed to quantitatively determine the effects of water stress from jointing to grain filling on root and shoot growth and the consequences for maize grain yield, above- and below-ground dry matter, water uptake (WU) and water use efficiency (WUE). Pot experiments were conducted in 2014 and 2015 with a mobile rain shelter to achieve conditions of no, mild or severe water stress. Maize yield was not affected by mild water stress over 2 years, while severe stress reduced yield by 56 %. Both water stress levels decreased root biomass slightly but shoot biomass substantially. Mild water stress decreased root length but increased root diameter, resulting in no effect on root surface area. Due to the morphological plasticity in root growth and the increase in root / shoot ratio, WU under water stress was decreased, and overall WUE for both above-ground dry matter and grain yield increased. Our results demonstrate that an irrigation system might be not economically and ecologically necessary because the frequently occurring mild water stress did not reduce crop yield much. The study helps us to understand crop responses to water stress during a critical water-sensitive period (middle of the crop-growing season) and to mitigate drought risk in dry-land agriculture.

Estimating yield gaps at the cropping system level.

PubMed

Guilpart, Nicolas; Grassini, Patricio; Sadras, Victor O; Timsina, Jagadish; Cassman, Kenneth G

2017-05-01

Yield gap analyses of individual crops have been used to estimate opportunities for increasing crop production at local to global scales, thus providing information crucial to food security. However, increases in crop production can also be achieved by improving cropping system yield through modification of spatial and temporal arrangement of individual crops. In this paper we define the cropping system yield potential as the output from the combination of crops that gives the highest energy yield per unit of land and time, and the cropping system yield gap as the difference between actual energy yield of an existing cropping system and the cropping system yield potential. Then, we provide a framework to identify alternative cropping systems which can be evaluated against the current ones. A proof-of-concept is provided with irrigated rice-maize systems at four locations in Bangladesh that represent a range of climatic conditions in that country. The proposed framework identified (i) realistic alternative cropping systems at each location, and (ii) two locations where expected improvements in crop production from changes in cropping intensity (number of crops per year) were 43% to 64% higher than from improving the management of individual crops within the current cropping systems. The proposed framework provides a tool to help assess food production capacity of new systems ( e.g. with increased cropping intensity) arising from climate change, and assess resource requirements (water and N) and associated environmental footprint per unit of land and production of these new systems. By expanding yield gap analysis from individual crops to the cropping system level and applying it to new systems, this framework could also be helpful to bridge the gap between yield gap analysis and cropping/farming system design.

Soil Moisture as an Estimator for Crop Yield in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peichl, Michael; Meyer, Volker; Samaniego, Luis; Thober, Stephan

2015-04-01

Annual crop yield depends on various factors such as soil properties, management decisions, and meteorological conditions. Unfavorable weather conditions, e.g. droughts, have the potential to drastically diminish crop yield in rain-fed agriculture. For example, the drought in 2003 caused direct losses of 1.5 billion EUR only in Germany. Predicting crop yields allows to mitigate negative effects of weather extremes which are assumed to occur more often in the future due to climate change. A standard approach in economics is to predict the impact of climate change on agriculture as a function of temperature and precipitation. This approach has been developed further using concepts like growing degree days. Other econometric models use nonlinear functions of heat or vapor pressure deficit. However, none of these approaches uses soil moisture to predict crop yield. We hypothesize that soil moisture is a better indicator to explain stress on plant growth than estimations based on precipitation and temperature. This is the case because the latter variables do not explicitly account for the available water content in the root zone, which is the primary source of water supply for plant growth. In this study, a reduced form panel approach is applied to estimate a multivariate econometric production function for the years 1999 to 2010. Annual crop yield data of various crops on the administrative district level serve as depending variables. The explanatory variable of major interest is the Soil Moisture Index (SMI), which quantifies anomalies in root zone soil moisture. The SMI is computed by the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM, www.ufz.de/mhm). The index represents the monthly soil water quantile at a 4 km2 grid resolution covering entire Germany. A reduced model approach is suitable because the SMI is the result of a stochastic weather process and therefore can be considered exogenous. For the ease of interpretation a linear functionality is preferred. Meteorological, phenological, geological, agronomic, and socio-economic variables are also considered to extend the model in order to reveal the proper causal relation. First results show that dry as well as wet extremes of SMI have a negative impact on crop yield for winter wheat. This indicates that soil moisture has at least a limiting affect on crop production.

High yielding tropical energy crops for bioenergy production: Effects of plant components, harvest years and locations on biomass composition.

PubMed

Surendra, K C; Ogoshi, Richard; Zaleski, Halina M; Hashimoto, Andrew G; Khanal, Samir Kumar

2018-03-01

The composition of lignocellulosic feedstock, which depends on crop type, crop management, locations and plant parts, significantly affects the conversion efficiency of biomass into biofuels and biobased products. Thus, this study examined the composition of different parts of two high yielding tropical energy crops, Energycane and Napier grass, collected across three locations and years. Significantly higher fiber content was found in the leaves of Energycane than stems, while fiber content was significantly higher in the stems than the leaves of Napier grass. Similarly, fiber content was higher in Napier grass than Energycane. Due to significant differences in biomass composition between the plant parts within a crop type, neither biological conversion, including anaerobic digestion, nor thermochemical pretreatment alone is likely to efficiently convert biomass components into biofuels and biobased products. However, combination of anaerobic digestion with thermochemical conversion technologies could efficiently utilize biomass components in generating biofuels and biobased products. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biomass and nitrogen-use efficiency of grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.) with nitrogen and supplemental irrigation in Coastal Plain Region, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Poor rainfall distribution and soil conditions such as high soil strength, low water holding capacity of soils and poor soil fertility in the humid Coastal Plain region may affect production of grain crops. Nitrogen insufficiency and water stress can both reduce crop yield, but little information is...

Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

2005-09-26

Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over themore » 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.« less

Reducing N2O and NO emissions while sustaining crop productivity in a Chinese vegetable-cereal double cropping system.

PubMed

Yao, Zhisheng; Yan, Guangxuan; Zheng, Xunhua; Wang, Rui; Liu, Chunyan; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus

2017-12-01

High nitrogen (N) inputs in Chinese vegetable and cereal productions played key roles in increasing crop yields. However, emissions of the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and atmospheric pollutant nitric oxide (NO) increased too. For lowering the environmental costs of crop production, it is essential to optimize N strategies to maintain high crop productivity, while reducing the associated N losses. We performed a 2 year-round field study regarding the effect of different combinations of poultry manure and chemical N fertilizers on crop yields, N use efficiency (NUE) and N 2 O and NO fluxes from a Welsh onion-winter wheat system in the North China Plain. Annual N 2 O and NO emissions averaged 1.14-3.82 kg N ha -1 yr -1 (or 5.54-13.06 g N kg -1 N uptake) and 0.57-1.87 kg N ha -1 yr -1 (or 2.78-6.38 g N kg -1 N uptake) over all treatments, respectively. Both N 2 O and NO emissions increased linearly with increasing total N inputs, and the mean annual direct emission factors (EF d ) were 0.39% for N 2 O and 0.19% for NO. Interestingly, the EF d for chemical N fertilizers (N 2 O: 0.42-0.48%; NO: 0.07-0.11%) was significantly lower than for manure N (N 2 O: 1.35%; NO: 0.76%). Besides, a negative power relationship between yield-scaled N 2 O, NO or N 2 O + NO emissions and NUE was observed, suggesting that improving NUE in crop production is crucial for increasing crop yields while decreasing nitrogenous gas release. Compared to the current farmers' fertilization rate, alternative practices with reduced chemical N fertilizers increased NUE and decreased annual N 2 O + NO emissions substantially, while crop yields remained unaffected. As a result, annual yield-scaled N 2 O + NO emissions were reduced by > 20%. Our study shows that a reduction of current application rates of chemical N fertilizers by 30-50% does not affect crop productivity, while at the same time N 2 O and NO emissions would be reduced significantly. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future Warming Increases Global Maize Yield Variability with Implications for Food Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tigchelaar, M.; Battisti, D. S.; Naylor, R. L.; Ray, D. K.

2017-12-01

If current trends in population growth and dietary shifts continue, the world will need to produce about 70% more food by 2050, while earth's climate is rapidly changing. Rising temperatures in particular are projected to negatively impact agricultural production, as the world's staple crops perform poorly in extreme heat. Theoretical models suggest that as temperatures rise above plants' optimal temperature for performance, not only will mean yields decline rapidly, but the variability of yields will increase, even as interannual variations in climate remain unchanged. Here we use global datasets of maize production and climate variability combined with CMIP5 temperature projections to quantify how yield variability will change in major maize producing countries under 2°C and 4°C of global warming. Maize is the world's most produced crop, and is linked to other staple crops through substitution in consumption and production. We find that in warmer climates - absent any breeding gains in heat tolerance - the Coefficient of Variation (CV) of maize yields increases almost everywhere, to values much larger than present-day. This increase in CV is due both to an increase in the standard deviation of yields, and a decrease in mean yields. In locations where crop failures become the norm under high (4°C) warming (mostly in tropical, low-yield environments), the standard deviation of yields ultimately decreases. The probability that in any given year the most productive areas in the top three maize producing countries (United States, China, Brazil) have simultaneous production losses greater than 10% is virtually zero under present-day climate conditions, but increases to 12% under 2°C warming, and 89% under 4°C warming. This has major implications for global food markets and staple crop prices, affecting especially the 2.5 billion people that comprise the world's poor, who already spend the majority of their disposable income on food and are particularly vulnerable to agricultural price spikes.

Integrated remote sensing imagery and two-dimensional hydraulic modeling approach for impact evaluation of flood on crop yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Huili; Liang, Zhongyao; Liu, Yong; Liang, Qiuhua; Xie, Shuguang

2017-10-01

The projected frequent occurrences of extreme flood events will cause significant losses to crops and will threaten food security. To reduce the potential risk and provide support for agricultural flood management, prevention, and mitigation, it is important to account for flood damage to crop production and to understand the relationship between flood characteristics and crop losses. A quantitative and effective evaluation tool is therefore essential to explore what and how flood characteristics will affect the associated crop loss, based on accurately understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of flood evolution and crop growth. Current evaluation methods are generally integrally or qualitatively based on statistic data or ex-post survey with less diagnosis into the process and dynamics of historical flood events. Therefore, a quantitative and spatial evaluation framework is presented in this study that integrates remote sensing imagery and hydraulic model simulation to facilitate the identification of historical flood characteristics that influence crop losses. Remote sensing imagery can capture the spatial variation of crop yields and yield losses from floods on a grid scale over large areas; however, it is incapable of providing spatial information regarding flood progress. Two-dimensional hydraulic model can simulate the dynamics of surface runoff and accomplish spatial and temporal quantification of flood characteristics on a grid scale over watersheds, i.e., flow velocity and flood duration. The methodological framework developed herein includes the following: (a) Vegetation indices for the critical period of crop growth from mid-high temporal and spatial remote sensing imagery in association with agricultural statistics data were used to develop empirical models to monitor the crop yield and evaluate yield losses from flood; (b) The two-dimensional hydraulic model coupled with the SCS-CN hydrologic model was employed to simulate the flood evolution process, with the SCS-CN model as a rainfall-runoff generator and the two-dimensional hydraulic model implementing the routing scheme for surface runoff; and (c) The spatial combination between crop yield losses and flood dynamics on a grid scale can be used to investigate the relationship between the intensity of flood characteristics and associated loss extent. The modeling framework was applied for a 50-year return period flood that occurred in Jilin province, Northeast China, which caused large agricultural losses in August 2013. The modeling results indicated that (a) the flow velocity was the most influential factor that caused spring corn, rice and soybean yield losses from extreme storm event in the mountainous regions; (b) the power function archived the best results that fit the velocity-loss relationship for mountainous areas; and (c) integrated remote sensing imagery and two-dimensional hydraulic modeling approach are helpful for evaluating the influence of historical flood event on crop production and investigating the relationship between flood characteristics and crop yield losses.

Evaluation of preservation methods for improving biogas production and enzymatic conversion yields of annual crops

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The use of energy crops and agricultural residues is expected to increase to fulfil the legislative demands of bio-based components in transport fuels. Ensiling methods, adapted from the feed sector, are suitable storage methods to preserve fresh crops throughout the year for, for example, biogas production. Various preservation methods, namely ensiling with and without acid addition for whole crop maize, fibre hemp and faba bean were investigated. For the drier fibre hemp, alkaline urea treatment was studied as well. These treatments were also explored as mild pretreatment methods to improve the disassembly and hydrolysis of these lignocellulosic substrates. Results The investigated storage treatments increased the availability of the substrates for biogas production from hemp and in most cases from whole maize but not from faba bean. Ensiling of hemp, without or with addition of formic acid, increased methane production by more than 50% compared to fresh hemp. Ensiling resulted in substantially increased methane yields also from maize, and the use of formic acid in ensiling of maize further enhanced methane yields by 16%, as compared with fresh maize. Ensiled faba bean, in contrast, yielded somewhat less methane than the fresh material. Acidic additives preserved and even increased the amount of the valuable water-soluble carbohydrates during storage, which affected most significantly the enzymatic hydrolysis yield of maize. However, preservation without additives decreased the enzymatic hydrolysis yield especially in maize, due to its high content of soluble sugars that were already converted to acids during storage. Urea-based preservation significantly increased the enzymatic hydrolysability of hemp. Hemp, preserved with urea, produced the highest carbohydrate increase of 46% in enzymatic hydrolysis as compared to the fresh material. Alkaline pretreatment conditions of hemp improved also the methane yields. Conclusions The results of the present work show that ensiling and alkaline preservation of fresh crop materials are useful pretreatment methods for methane production. Improvements in enzymatic hydrolysis were also promising. While all three crops still require a more powerful pretreatment to release the maximum amount of carbohydrates, anaerobic preservation is clearly a suitable storage and pretreatment method prior to production of platform sugars from fresh crops. PMID:21771298

From GCM grid cell to agricultural plot: scale issues affecting modelling of climate impact

PubMed Central

Baron, Christian; Sultan, Benjamin; Balme, Maud; Sarr, Benoit; Traore, Seydou; Lebel, Thierry; Janicot, Serge; Dingkuhn, Michael

2005-01-01

General circulation models (GCM) are increasingly capable of making relevant predictions of seasonal and long-term climate variability, thus improving prospects of predicting impact on crop yields. This is particularly important for semi-arid West Africa where climate variability and drought threaten food security. Translating GCM outputs into attainable crop yields is difficult because GCM grid boxes are of larger scale than the processes governing yield, involving partitioning of rain among runoff, evaporation, transpiration, drainage and storage at plot scale. This study analyses the bias introduced to crop simulation when climatic data is aggregated spatially or in time, resulting in loss of relevant variation. A detailed case study was conducted using historical weather data for Senegal, applied to the crop model SARRA-H (version for millet). The study was then extended to a 10°N–17° N climatic gradient and a 31 year climate sequence to evaluate yield sensitivity to the variability of solar radiation and rainfall. Finally, a down-scaling model called LGO (Lebel–Guillot–Onibon), generating local rain patterns from grid cell means, was used to restore the variability lost by aggregation. Results indicate that forcing the crop model with spatially aggregated rainfall causes yield overestimations of 10–50% in dry latitudes, but nearly none in humid zones, due to a biased fraction of rainfall available for crop transpiration. Aggregation of solar radiation data caused significant bias in wetter zones where radiation was limiting yield. Where climatic gradients are steep, these two situations can occur within the same GCM grid cell. Disaggregation of grid cell means into a pattern of virtual synoptic stations having high-resolution rainfall distribution removed much of the bias caused by aggregation and gave realistic simulations of yield. It is concluded that coupling of GCM outputs with plot level crop models can cause large systematic errors due to scale incompatibility. These errors can be avoided by transforming GCM outputs, especially rainfall, to simulate the variability found at plot level. PMID:16433096

Assessing Weather-Yield Relationships in Rice at Local Scale Using Data Mining Approaches

PubMed Central

Delerce, Sylvain; Dorado, Hugo; Grillon, Alexandre; Rebolledo, Maria Camila; Prager, Steven D.; Patiño, Victor Hugo; Garcés Varón, Gabriel; Jiménez, Daniel

2016-01-01

Seasonal and inter-annual climate variability have become important issues for farmers, and climate change has been shown to increase them. Simultaneously farmers and agricultural organizations are increasingly collecting observational data about in situ crop performance. Agriculture thus needs new tools to cope with changing environmental conditions and to take advantage of these data. Data mining techniques make it possible to extract embedded knowledge associated with farmer experiences from these large observational datasets in order to identify best practices for adapting to climate variability. We introduce new approaches through a case study on irrigated and rainfed rice in Colombia. Preexisting observational datasets of commercial harvest records were combined with in situ daily weather series. Using Conditional Inference Forest and clustering techniques, we assessed the relationships between climatic factors and crop yield variability at the local scale for specific cultivars and growth stages. The analysis showed clear relationships in the various location-cultivar combinations, with climatic factors explaining 6 to 46% of spatiotemporal variability in yield, and with crop responses to weather being non-linear and cultivar-specific. Climatic factors affected cultivars differently during each stage of development. For instance, one cultivar was affected by high nighttime temperatures in the reproductive stage but responded positively to accumulated solar radiation during the ripening stage. Another was affected by high nighttime temperatures during both the vegetative and reproductive stages. Clustering of the weather patterns corresponding to individual cropping events revealed different groups of weather patterns for irrigated and rainfed systems with contrasting yield levels. Best-suited cultivars were identified for some weather patterns, making weather-site-specific recommendations possible. This study illustrates the potential of data mining for adding value to existing observational data in agriculture by allowing embedded knowledge to be quickly leveraged. It generates site-specific information on cultivar response to climatic factors and supports on-farm management decisions for adaptation to climate variability. PMID:27560980

Assessing Weather-Yield Relationships in Rice at Local Scale Using Data Mining Approaches.

PubMed

Delerce, Sylvain; Dorado, Hugo; Grillon, Alexandre; Rebolledo, Maria Camila; Prager, Steven D; Patiño, Victor Hugo; Garcés Varón, Gabriel; Jiménez, Daniel

2016-01-01

Seasonal and inter-annual climate variability have become important issues for farmers, and climate change has been shown to increase them. Simultaneously farmers and agricultural organizations are increasingly collecting observational data about in situ crop performance. Agriculture thus needs new tools to cope with changing environmental conditions and to take advantage of these data. Data mining techniques make it possible to extract embedded knowledge associated with farmer experiences from these large observational datasets in order to identify best practices for adapting to climate variability. We introduce new approaches through a case study on irrigated and rainfed rice in Colombia. Preexisting observational datasets of commercial harvest records were combined with in situ daily weather series. Using Conditional Inference Forest and clustering techniques, we assessed the relationships between climatic factors and crop yield variability at the local scale for specific cultivars and growth stages. The analysis showed clear relationships in the various location-cultivar combinations, with climatic factors explaining 6 to 46% of spatiotemporal variability in yield, and with crop responses to weather being non-linear and cultivar-specific. Climatic factors affected cultivars differently during each stage of development. For instance, one cultivar was affected by high nighttime temperatures in the reproductive stage but responded positively to accumulated solar radiation during the ripening stage. Another was affected by high nighttime temperatures during both the vegetative and reproductive stages. Clustering of the weather patterns corresponding to individual cropping events revealed different groups of weather patterns for irrigated and rainfed systems with contrasting yield levels. Best-suited cultivars were identified for some weather patterns, making weather-site-specific recommendations possible. This study illustrates the potential of data mining for adding value to existing observational data in agriculture by allowing embedded knowledge to be quickly leveraged. It generates site-specific information on cultivar response to climatic factors and supports on-farm management decisions for adaptation to climate variability.

Are We on the Right Track: Can Our Understanding of Abscission in Model Systems Promote or Derail Making Improvements in Less Studied Crops?

PubMed Central

Patterson, Sara E.; Bolivar-Medina, Jenny L.; Falbel, Tanya G.; Hedtcke, Janet L.; Nevarez-McBride, Danielle; Maule, Andrew F.; Zalapa, Juan E.

2016-01-01

As the world population grows and resources and climate conditions change, crop improvement continues to be one of the most important challenges for agriculturalists. The yield and quality of many crops is affected by abscission or shattering, and environmental stresses often hasten or alter the abscission process. Understanding this process can not only lead to genetic improvement, but also changes in cultural practices and management that will contribute to higher yields, improved quality and greater sustainability. As plant scientists, we have learned significant amounts about this process through the study of model plants such as Arabidopsis, tomato, rice, and maize. While these model systems have provided significant valuable information, we are sometimes challenged to use this knowledge effectively as variables including the economic value of the crop, the uniformity of the crop, ploidy levels, flowering and crossing mechanisms, ethylene responses, cultural requirements, responses to changes in environment, and cellular and tissue specific morphological differences can significantly influence outcomes. The value of genomic resources for lesser-studied crops such as cranberries and grapes and the orphan crop fonio will also be considered. PMID:26858730

Are We on the Right Track: Can Our Understanding of Abscission in Model Systems Promote or Derail Making Improvements in Less Studied Crops?

PubMed

Patterson, Sara E; Bolivar-Medina, Jenny L; Falbel, Tanya G; Hedtcke, Janet L; Nevarez-McBride, Danielle; Maule, Andrew F; Zalapa, Juan E

2015-01-01

As the world population grows and resources and climate conditions change, crop improvement continues to be one of the most important challenges for agriculturalists. The yield and quality of many crops is affected by abscission or shattering, and environmental stresses often hasten or alter the abscission process. Understanding this process can not only lead to genetic improvement, but also changes in cultural practices and management that will contribute to higher yields, improved quality and greater sustainability. As plant scientists, we have learned significant amounts about this process through the study of model plants such as Arabidopsis, tomato, rice, and maize. While these model systems have provided significant valuable information, we are sometimes challenged to use this knowledge effectively as variables including the economic value of the crop, the uniformity of the crop, ploidy levels, flowering and crossing mechanisms, ethylene responses, cultural requirements, responses to changes in environment, and cellular and tissue specific morphological differences can significantly influence outcomes. The value of genomic resources for lesser-studied crops such as cranberries and grapes and the orphan crop fonio will also be considered.

Climate change impacts on coffee rust disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfonsi, W. M. V.; Koga-Vicente, A.; Pinto, H. S.; Alfonsi, E. L., Sr.; Coltri, P. P.; Zullo, J., Jr.; Patricio, F. R.; Avila, A. M. H. D.; Gonçalves, R. R. D. V.

2016-12-01

Changes in climate conditions and in extreme weather events may affect the food security due to impacts in agricultural production. Despite several researches have been assessed the impacts of extremes in yield crops in climate change scenarios, there is the need to consider the effects in pests and diseases which increase losses in the sector. Coffee Arabica is an important commodity in world and plays a key role in Brazilian agricultural exports. Although the coffee crop has a world highlight, its yield is affected by several factors abiotic or biotic. The weather as well pests and diseases directly influence the development and coffee crop yield. These problems may cause serious damage with significant economic impacts. The coffee rust, caused by the fungus Hemileia vastarix,is among the diseases of greatest impact for the crop. The disease emerged in Brazil in the 70s and is widely spread in all producing regions of coffee in Brazil, and in the world. Regions with favorable weather conditions for the pathogen may exhibit losses ranging from 30% to 50% of the total grain production. The evaluation of extreme weather events of coffee rust disease in futures scenarios was carried out using the climatic data from CMIP5 models, data field of coffee rust disease incidence and, incubation period simulation data for Brazilian municipalities. Two Regional Climate Models were selected, Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5, and the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 w/m2 was adopted. The outcomes pointed out that in these scenarios the period of incubation tends to decrease affecting the coffee rust disease incidence, which tends to increase. Nevertheless, the changing in average trends tends to benefit the reproduction of the pathogen. Once the temperature threshold for the disease reaches the adverse conditions it may be unfavorable for the incidence.

Characterizing spatial and temporal variability of crop yield caused by climate and irrigation in the North China Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chao; Baethgen, Walter E.; Wang, Enli; Yu, Qiang

2011-12-01

Grain yields of wheat and maize were obtained from national statistics and simulated with an agricultural system model to investigate the effects of historical climate variability and irrigation on crop yield in the North China Plain (NCP). Both observed and simulated yields showed large temporal and spatial variability due to variations in climate and irrigation supply. Wheat yield under full irrigation (FI) was 8 t ha-1 or higher in 80% of seasons in the north, it ranged from 7 to 10 t ha-1 in 90% of seasons in central NCP, and less than 9 t ha-1 in 85% of seasons in the south. Reduced irrigation resulted in increased crop yield variability. Wheat yield under supplemental irrigation, i.e., to meet only 50% of irrigation water requirement [supplemental irrigation (SI)] ranged from 2.7 to 8.8 t ha-1 with the maximum frequency of seasons having the range of 4-6 t ha-1 in the north, 4-7 t ha-1 in central NCP, and 5-8 t ha-1 in the south. Wheat yield under no irrigation (NI) was lower than 1 t ha-1 in about 50% of seasons. Considering the NCP as a whole, simulated maize yield under FI ranged from 3.9 to 11.8 t ha-1 with similar frequency distribution in the range of 6-11.8 t ha-1 with the interval of 2 t ha-1. It ranged from 0 to 11.8 t ha-1, uniformly distributed into the range of 4-10 t ha-1 under SI, and NI. The results give an insight into the levels of regional crop production affected by climate and water management strategies.

The Importance of Juvenile Root Traits for Crop Yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, Philip; Adu, Michael; Broadley, Martin; Brown, Lawrie; Dupuy, Lionel; George, Timothy; Graham, Neil; Hammond, John; Hayden, Rory; Neugebauer, Konrad; Nightingale, Mark; Ramsay, Gavin; Thomas, Catherine; Thompson, Jacqueline; Wishart, Jane; Wright, Gladys

2014-05-01

Genetic variation in root system architecture (RSA) is an under-exploited breeding resource. This is partly a consequence of difficulties in the rapid and accurate assessment of subterranean root systems. However, although the characterisation of root systems of large plants in the field are both time-consuming and labour-intensive, high-throughput (HTP) screens of root systems of juvenile plants can be performed in the field, glasshouse or laboratory. It is hypothesised that improving the root systems of juvenile plants can accelerate access to water and essential mineral elements, leading to rapid crop establishment and, consequently, greater yields. This presentation will illustrate how aspects of the juvenile root systems of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) and oilseed rape (OSR; Brassica napus L.) correlate with crop yields and examine the reasons for such correlations. It will first describe the significant positive relationships between early root system development, phosphorus acquisition, canopy establishment and eventual yield among potato genotypes. It will report the development of a glasshouse assay for root system architecture (RSA) of juvenile potato plants, the correlations between root system architectures measured in the glasshouse and field, and the relationships between aspects of the juvenile root system and crop yields under drought conditions. It will then describe the development of HTP systems for assaying RSA of OSR seedlings, the identification of genetic loci affecting RSA in OSR, the development of mathematical models describing resource acquisition by OSR, and the correlations between root traits recorded in the HTP systems and yields of OSR in the field.

Quantifying the risks of winter damage on overwintering crops under future climates: Will low-temperature damage be more likely in warmer climates?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vico, G.; Weih, M.

2014-12-01

Autumn-sown crops act as winter cover crop, reducing soil erosion and nutrient leaching, while potentially providing higher yields than spring varieties in many environments. Nevertheless, overwintering crops are exposed for longer periods to the vagaries of weather conditions. Adverse winter conditions, in particular, may negatively affect the final yield, by reducing crop survival or its vigor. The net effect of the projected shifts in climate is unclear. On the one hand, warmer temperatures may reduce the frequency of low temperatures, thereby reducing damage risk. On the other hand, warmer temperatures, by reducing plant acclimation level and the amount and duration of snow cover, may increase the likelihood of damage. Thus, warmer climates may paradoxically result in more extensive low temperature damage and reduced viability for overwintering plants. The net effect of a shift in climate is explored by means of a parsimonious probabilistic model, based on a coupled description of air temperature, snow cover, and crop tolerable temperature. Exploiting an extensive dataset of winter wheat responses to low temperature exposure, the risk of winter damage occurrence is quantified under conditions typical of northern temperate latitudes. The full spectrum of variations expected with climate change is explored, quantifying the joint effects of alterations in temperature averages and their variability as well as shifts in precipitation. The key features affecting winter wheat vulnerability to low temperature damage under future climates are singled out.

Alternate Bearing in Citrus: Changes in the Expression of Flowering Control Genes and in Global Gene Expression in ON- versus OFF-Crop Trees

PubMed Central

Shalom, Liron; Samuels, Sivan; Zur, Naftali; Shlizerman, Lyudmila; Zemach, Hanita; Weissberg, Mira; Ophir, Ron; Blumwald, Eduardo; Sadka, Avi

2012-01-01

Alternate bearing (AB) is the process in fruit trees by which cycles of heavy yield (ON crop) one year are followed by a light yield (OFF crop) the next. Heavy yield usually reduces flowering intensity the following year. Despite its agricultural importance, how the developing crop influences the following year's return bloom and yield is not fully understood. It might be assumed that an ‘AB signal’ is generated in the fruit, or in another organ that senses fruit presence, and moves into the bud to determine its fate—flowering or vegetative growth. The bud then responds to fruit presence by altering regulatory and metabolic pathways. Determining these pathways, and when they are altered, might indicate the nature of this putative AB signal. We studied bud morphology, the expression of flowering control genes, and global gene expression in ON- and OFF-crop buds. In May, shortly after flowering and fruit set, OFF-crop buds were already significantly longer than ON-crop buds. The number of differentially expressed genes was higher in May than at the other tested time points. Processes differentially expressed between ON- and OFF-crop trees included key metabolic and regulatory pathways, such as photosynthesis and secondary metabolism. The expression of genes of trehalose metabolism and flavonoid metabolism was validated by nCounter technology, and the latter was confirmed by metabolomic analysis. Among genes induced in OFF-crop trees was one homologous to SQUAMOSA PROMOTER BINDING-LIKE (SPL), which controls juvenile-to-adult and annual phase transitions, regulated by miR156. The expression pattern of SPL-like, miR156 and other flowering control genes suggested that fruit load affects bud fate, and therefore development and metabolism, a relatively long time before the flowering induction period. Results shed light on some of the metabolic and regulatory processes that are altered in ON and OFF buds. PMID:23071667

Alternate bearing in citrus: changes in the expression of flowering control genes and in global gene expression in ON- versus OFF-crop trees.

PubMed

Shalom, Liron; Samuels, Sivan; Zur, Naftali; Shlizerman, Lyudmila; Zemach, Hanita; Weissberg, Mira; Ophir, Ron; Blumwald, Eduardo; Sadka, Avi

2012-01-01

Alternate bearing (AB) is the process in fruit trees by which cycles of heavy yield (ON crop) one year are followed by a light yield (OFF crop) the next. Heavy yield usually reduces flowering intensity the following year. Despite its agricultural importance, how the developing crop influences the following year's return bloom and yield is not fully understood. It might be assumed that an 'AB signal' is generated in the fruit, or in another organ that senses fruit presence, and moves into the bud to determine its fate-flowering or vegetative growth. The bud then responds to fruit presence by altering regulatory and metabolic pathways. Determining these pathways, and when they are altered, might indicate the nature of this putative AB signal. We studied bud morphology, the expression of flowering control genes, and global gene expression in ON- and OFF-crop buds. In May, shortly after flowering and fruit set, OFF-crop buds were already significantly longer than ON-crop buds. The number of differentially expressed genes was higher in May than at the other tested time points. Processes differentially expressed between ON- and OFF-crop trees included key metabolic and regulatory pathways, such as photosynthesis and secondary metabolism. The expression of genes of trehalose metabolism and flavonoid metabolism was validated by nCounter technology, and the latter was confirmed by metabolomic analysis. Among genes induced in OFF-crop trees was one homologous to SQUAMOSA PROMOTER BINDING-LIKE (SPL), which controls juvenile-to-adult and annual phase transitions, regulated by miR156. The expression pattern of SPL-like, miR156 and other flowering control genes suggested that fruit load affects bud fate, and therefore development and metabolism, a relatively long time before the flowering induction period. Results shed light on some of the metabolic and regulatory processes that are altered in ON and OFF buds.

Climate sensitivity of DSSAT under different agriculture practice scenarios in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, L.; Robock, A.

2014-12-01

Crop yields are sensitive to both agricultural practice and climate changes. Under different agricultural practice scenarios, crop yield may have different climate sensitivities. Since it is important to understand how future climate changes affect agriculture productivity and what the potential adaptation strategies would be to compensate for possible negative impacts on crop production, we performed experiments to study climate sensitivity under different agricultural practice scenarios for rice, maize and wheat in the top four production provinces in China using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model. The agricultural practice scenarios include four categories: different amounts of nitrogen fertilizer or no nitrogen stress; irrigation turned on or off, or no water stress; all possible seeds in the DSSAT cultivar data base; and different planting dates. For the climate sensitivity test, the control climate is from 1998 to 2007, and we individually modify four climate variables: daily maximum and minimum temperature by +2 °C and -2 °C, daily precipitation by +20% and -20%, and daily solar radiation by + 20% and -20%. With more nitrogen fertilizer applied, crops are more sensitive to temperature changes as well as precipitation changes because of their release from nitrogen limitation. With irrigation turned on, crop yield sensitivity to temperature decreases in most of the regions depending on the amount of the local precipitation, since more water is available and soil temperature varies less with higher soil moisture. Those results indicate that there could be possible agriculture adaptation strategies under certain future climate scenarios. For example, increasing nitrogen fertilizer usage by a certain amount might compensate for the negative impact on crop yield from climate changes. However, since crops are more sensitive to climate changes when there is more nitrogen fertilizer applied, if the climate changes are unfavorable to crop yields, increasing nitrogen fertilizer usage at certain levels might enhance the negative climate change impact. Enhanced nitrogen fertilizer use might have additional negative impacts on climate because of nitrogen emissions to the atmosphere, but those effects were not studied here.

Commercial Crop Yields Reveal Strengths and Weaknesses for Organic Agriculture in the United States.

PubMed

Kniss, Andrew R; Savage, Steven D; Jabbour, Randa

2016-01-01

Land area devoted to organic agriculture has increased steadily over the last 20 years in the United States, and elsewhere around the world. A primary criticism of organic agriculture is lower yield compared to non-organic systems. Previous analyses documenting the yield deficiency in organic production have relied mostly on data generated under experimental conditions, but these studies do not necessarily reflect the full range of innovation or practical limitations that are part of commercial agriculture. The analysis we present here offers a new perspective, based on organic yield data collected from over 10,000 organic farmers representing nearly 800,000 hectares of organic farmland. We used publicly available data from the United States Department of Agriculture to estimate yield differences between organic and conventional production methods for the 2014 production year. Similar to previous work, organic crop yields in our analysis were lower than conventional crop yields for most crops. Averaged across all crops, organic yield averaged 67% of conventional yield [corrected]. However, several crops had no significant difference in yields between organic and conventional production, and organic yields surpassed conventional yields for some hay crops. The organic to conventional yield ratio varied widely among crops, and in some cases, among locations within a crop. For soybean (Glycine max) and potato (Solanum tuberosum), organic yield was more similar to conventional yield in states where conventional yield was greatest. The opposite trend was observed for barley (Hordeum vulgare), wheat (Triticum aestevum), and hay crops, however, suggesting the geographical yield potential has an inconsistent effect on the organic yield gap.

Commercial Crop Yields Reveal Strengths and Weaknesses for Organic Agriculture in the United States

PubMed Central

Savage, Steven D.; Jabbour, Randa

2016-01-01

Land area devoted to organic agriculture has increased steadily over the last 20 years in the United States, and elsewhere around the world. A primary criticism of organic agriculture is lower yield compared to non-organic systems. Previous analyses documenting the yield deficiency in organic production have relied mostly on data generated under experimental conditions, but these studies do not necessarily reflect the full range of innovation or practical limitations that are part of commercial agriculture. The analysis we present here offers a new perspective, based on organic yield data collected from over 10,000 organic farmers representing nearly 800,000 hectares of organic farmland. We used publicly available data from the United States Department of Agriculture to estimate yield differences between organic and conventional production methods for the 2014 production year. Similar to previous work, organic crop yields in our analysis were lower than conventional crop yields for most crops. Averaged across all crops, organic yield averaged 80% of conventional yield. However, several crops had no significant difference in yields between organic and conventional production, and organic yields surpassed conventional yields for some hay crops. The organic to conventional yield ratio varied widely among crops, and in some cases, among locations within a crop. For soybean (Glycine max) and potato (Solanum tuberosum), organic yield was more similar to conventional yield in states where conventional yield was greatest. The opposite trend was observed for barley (Hordeum vulgare), wheat (Triticum aestevum), and hay crops, however, suggesting the geographical yield potential has an inconsistent effect on the organic yield gap. PMID:27552217

Corn response to climate stress detected with satellite-based NDVI time series

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Ruoyu; Cherkauer, Keith; Bowling, Laura

Corn growth conditions and yield are closely dependent on climate variability. Leaf growth, measured as the leaf area index, can be used to identify changes in crop growth in response to climate stress. This research was conducted to capture patterns of spatial and temporal corn leaf growth under climate stress for the St. Joseph River watershed, in northeastern Indiana. Leaf growth is represented by the Normalized Difference Vegetative Index (NDVI) retrieved from multiple years (2000–2010) of Landsat 5 TM images. By comparing NDVI values for individual image dates with the derived normal curve, the response of crop growth to environmentalmore » factors is quantified as NDVI residuals. Regression analysis revealed a significant relationship between yield and NDVI residual during the pre-silking period, indicating that NDVI residuals reflect crop stress in the early growing period that impacts yield. Both the mean NDVI residuals and the percentage of image pixels where corn was under stress (risky pixel rate) are significantly correlated with water stress. Dry weather is prone to hamper potential crop growth, with stress affecting most of the observed corn pixels in the area. Oversupply of rainfall at the end of the growing season was not found to have a measurable effect on crop growth, while above normal precipitation earlier in the growing season reduces the risk of yield loss at the watershed scale. Furthermore, the spatial extent of stress is much lower when precipitation is above normal than under dry conditions, masking the impact of small areas of yield loss at the watershed scale.« less

Corn response to climate stress detected with satellite-based NDVI time series

DOE PAGES

Wang, Ruoyu; Cherkauer, Keith; Bowling, Laura

2016-03-23

Corn growth conditions and yield are closely dependent on climate variability. Leaf growth, measured as the leaf area index, can be used to identify changes in crop growth in response to climate stress. This research was conducted to capture patterns of spatial and temporal corn leaf growth under climate stress for the St. Joseph River watershed, in northeastern Indiana. Leaf growth is represented by the Normalized Difference Vegetative Index (NDVI) retrieved from multiple years (2000–2010) of Landsat 5 TM images. By comparing NDVI values for individual image dates with the derived normal curve, the response of crop growth to environmentalmore » factors is quantified as NDVI residuals. Regression analysis revealed a significant relationship between yield and NDVI residual during the pre-silking period, indicating that NDVI residuals reflect crop stress in the early growing period that impacts yield. Both the mean NDVI residuals and the percentage of image pixels where corn was under stress (risky pixel rate) are significantly correlated with water stress. Dry weather is prone to hamper potential crop growth, with stress affecting most of the observed corn pixels in the area. Oversupply of rainfall at the end of the growing season was not found to have a measurable effect on crop growth, while above normal precipitation earlier in the growing season reduces the risk of yield loss at the watershed scale. Furthermore, the spatial extent of stress is much lower when precipitation is above normal than under dry conditions, masking the impact of small areas of yield loss at the watershed scale.« less

Using a water-food-energy nexus approach for optimal irrigation management during drought events in Nebraska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campana, P. E.; Zhang, J.; Yao, T.; Melton, F. S.; Yan, J.

2017-12-01

Climate change and drought have severe impacts on the agricultural sector affecting crop yields, water availability, and energy consumption for irrigation. Monitoring, assessing and mitigating the effects of climate change and drought on the agricultural and energy sectors are fundamental challenges that require investigation for water, food, and energy security issues. Using an integrated water-food-energy nexus approach, this study is developing a comprehensive drought management system through integration of real-time drought monitoring with real-time irrigation management. The spatially explicit model developed, GIS-OptiCE, can be used for simulation, multi-criteria optimization and generation of forecasts to support irrigation management. To demonstrate the value of the approach, the model has been applied to one major corn region in Nebraska to study the effects of the 2012 drought on crop yield and irrigation water/energy requirements as compared to a wet year such as 2009. The water-food-energy interrelationships evaluated show that significant water volumes and energy are required to halt the negative effects of drought on the crop yield. The multi-criteria optimization problem applied in this study indicates that the optimal solutions of irrigation do not necessarily correspond to those that would produce the maximum crop yields, depending on both water and economic constraints. In particular, crop pricing forecasts are extremely important to define the optimal irrigation management strategy. The model developed shows great potential in precision agriculture by providing near real-time data products including information on evapotranspiration, irrigation volumes, energy requirements, predicted crop growth, and nutrient requirements.

The importance of long‐term experiments in agriculture: their management to ensure continued crop production and soil fertility; the Rothamsted experience

PubMed Central

Johnston, A. E.

2018-01-01

Summary Long‐term field experiments that test a range of treatments and are intended to assess the sustainability of crop production, and thus food security, must be managed actively to identify any treatment that is failing to maintain or increase yields. Once identified, carefully considered changes can be made to the treatment or management, and if they are successful yields will change. If suitable changes cannot be made to an experiment to ensure its continued relevance to sustainable crop production, then it should be stopped. Long‐term experiments have many other uses. They provide a field resource and samples for research on plant and soil processes and properties, especially those properties where change occurs slowly and affects soil fertility. Archived samples of all inputs and outputs are an invaluable source of material for future research, and data from current and archived samples can be used to develop models to describe soil and plant processes. Such changes and uses in the Rothamsted experiments are described, and demonstrate that with the appropriate crop, soil and management, acceptable yields can be maintained for many years, with either organic manure or inorganic fertilizers. Highlights Long‐term experiments demonstrate sustainability and increases in crop yield when managed to optimize soil fertility.Shifting individual response curves into coincidence increases understanding of the factors involved.Changes in inorganic and organic pollutants in archived crop and soil samples are related to inputs over time.Models describing soil processes are developed from current and archived soil data. PMID:29527119

GIS development to monitor climate change and its geohydrological consequences on non-monsoon crop pattern in Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rawat, Pradeep K.

2014-09-01

The main objective of the study was to assess climate change and its geohydrological impacts on non-monsoon crop pattern at watershed level through GIS development on climate informatics, land use informatics, hydro-informatics and agro-informatics. The Dabka watershed constitutes a part of the Kosi Basin in densely populated Lesser Himalaya, India in district Nainital has been selected for the case illustration. This reconnaissance study analyzed the climatic database for last three decades (1982-2012) and estimates that the average temperature and evaporation loss have been rising with the rate of 0.07 °C/yr and 4.03 mm/yr respectively whereas the average rainfall has been decreasing with the rate of 0.60 mm/yr. These rates of climate change increasing with mounting elevations. Consequently the existing microclimatic zones (sub-tropical, temperate and moist temperate) shifting towards higher altitudes and affecting the favorable conditions of the land use pattern and decreased the eco-friendly forest and vegetation cover. The land use degradation and high rate of deforestation (0.22 km2 or 1.5%/yr) leads to accelerate several hydrological problems during non-monsoon period (i.e. decreasing infiltration capacity of land surface, declining underground water level, drying up natural perennial springs and streams, decreasing irrigation water availability etc.). In order to that the non-monsoon crops yield has been decreasing with the rate of 0.60% each year as the results suggest that the average crop yield is just about 58 q/ha whereas twenty five to thirty year back it was recorded about 66 q/ha which is about 12% higher (8 q/ha) than existing yield. On the other hand the population increasing with the growth rate of 2% each year. Therefore, decreasing crop yield and increasing population raised food deficiency problem and the people adopting other occupations which ultimately affecting rural livelihood of the Himalaya.

Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deryng, D.; Conway, D.; Ramankutty, N.; Price, J.; Warren, R.

2014-12-01

Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (dY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus -7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (dY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (dY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deryng, Delphine; Conway, Declan; Ramankutty, Navin; Price, Jeff; Warren, Rachel

2014-03-01

Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (ΔY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus - 7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (ΔY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (ΔY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

Exogenous abscisic acid significantly affects proteome in tea plant (Camellia sinensis) exposed to drought stress

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Tea [Camellia sinensis (L.) O. Kuntze] is an important economic crop, and drought is the most important abiotic stress affecting yield and quality. Abscisic acid (ABA) is an important phytohormone responsible for activating drought resistance. Increased understanding of ABA effects on tea plant unde...

Development of High Yield Feedstocks and Biomass Conversion Technology for Renewable Energy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hashimoto, Andrew G.; Crow, Susan; DeBeryshe, Barbara

2015-04-09

This project had two main goals. The first goal was to evaluate several high yielding tropical perennial grasses as feedstock for biofuel production, and to characterize the feedstock for compatible biofuel production systems. The second goal was to assess the integration of renewable energy systems for Hawaii. The project focused on high-yield grasses (napiergrass, energycane, sweet sorghum, and sugarcane). Field plots were established to evaluate the effects of elevation (30, 300 and 900 meters above sea level) and irrigation (50%, 75% and 100% of sugarcane plantation practice) on energy crop yields and input. The test plots were extensive monitored including:more » hydrologic studies to measure crop water use and losses through seepage and evapotranspiration; changes in soil carbon stock; greenhouse gas flux (CO 2, CH 4, and N 2O) from the soil surface; and root morphology, biomass, and turnover. Results showed significant effects of environment on crop yields. In general, crop yields decrease as the elevation increased, being more pronounced for sweet sorghum and energycane than napiergrass. Also energy crop yields were higher with increased irrigation levels, being most pronounced with energycane and less so with sweet sorghum. Daylight length greatly affected sweet sorghum growth and yields. One of the energy crops (napiergrass) was harvested at different ages (2, 4, 6, and 8 months) to assess the changes in feedstock characteristics with age and potential to generate co-products. Although there was greater potential for co-products from younger feedstock, the increased production was not sufficient to offset the additional cost of harvesting multiple times per year. The feedstocks were also characterized to assess their compatibility with biochemical and thermochemical conversion processes. The project objectives are being continued through additional support from the Office of Naval Research, and the Biomass Research and Development Initiative. Renewable energy assessments included: biomass feedstocks currently being produced by Hawaiian Commercial & Sugar Co., and possibilities of producing methane from agricultural and livestock wastes and the potential of photovoltaic systems for irrigation pumping at HC&S. Finally, the impact of a micro-hydroelectric system on a small-farm economics and the local community was assessed.« less

Increasing crop diversity mitigates weather variations and improves yield stability.

PubMed

Gaudin, Amélie C M; Tolhurst, Tor N; Ker, Alan P; Janovicek, Ken; Tortora, Cristina; Martin, Ralph C; Deen, William

2015-01-01

Cropping sequence diversification provides a systems approach to reduce yield variations and improve resilience to multiple environmental stresses. Yield advantages of more diverse crop rotations and their synergistic effects with reduced tillage are well documented, but few studies have quantified the impact of these management practices on yields and their stability when soil moisture is limiting or in excess. Using yield and weather data obtained from a 31-year long term rotation and tillage trial in Ontario, we tested whether crop rotation diversity is associated with greater yield stability when abnormal weather conditions occur. We used parametric and non-parametric approaches to quantify the impact of rotation diversity (monocrop, 2-crops, 3-crops without or with one or two legume cover crops) and tillage (conventional or reduced tillage) on yield probabilities and the benefits of crop diversity under different soil moisture and temperature scenarios. Although the magnitude of rotation benefits varied with crops, weather patterns and tillage, yield stability significantly increased when corn and soybean were integrated into more diverse rotations. Introducing small grains into short corn-soybean rotation was enough to provide substantial benefits on long-term soybean yields and their stability while the effects on corn were mostly associated with the temporal niche provided by small grains for underseeded red clover or alfalfa. Crop diversification strategies increased the probability of harnessing favorable growing conditions while decreasing the risk of crop failure. In hot and dry years, diversification of corn-soybean rotations and reduced tillage increased yield by 7% and 22% for corn and soybean respectively. Given the additional advantages associated with cropping system diversification, such a strategy provides a more comprehensive approach to lowering yield variability and improving the resilience of cropping systems to multiple environmental stresses. This could help to sustain future yield levels in challenging production environments.

Climate Change Impacts for Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment Part 2. Models and Validation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomson, Allison M.; Rosenberg, Norman J.; Izaurralde, R Cesar C.

As CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere and contribute to rising global temperatures, it is important to examine how a changing climate may affect natural and managed ecosystems. In this series of papers, we study the impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources and natural ecosystems in the conterminous United States using a suite of climate change predictions from General Circulation Models (GCMs) as described in Part 1. Here we describe the agriculture model EPIC and the HUMUS water model and validate them with historical crop yields and streamflow data. We compare EPIC simulated grainmore » and forage crop yields with historical crop yields from the US Department of Agriculture and find an acceptable level of agreement for this study. The validation of HUMUS simulated streamflow with estimates of natural streamflow from the US Geological Survey shows that the model is able to reproduce significant relationships and capture major trends.« less

Calibration of Daycent biogeochemical model for rice paddies in three agro-ecological zones in Peninsular India to optimize cropping practices and predict GHG emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajan, S.; Kritee, K.; Keough, C.; Parton, W. J.; Ogle, S. M.

2014-12-01

Rice is a staple for nearly half of the world population with irrigated and rainfed lowland rice accounting for about 80% of the worldwide harvested rice area. Increased atmospheric CO2 and rising temperatures are expected to adversely affect rice yields by the end of the 21st century. In addition, different crop management practices affect methane and nitrous oxide emissions from rice paddies antagonistically warranting a review of crop management practices such that farmers can adapt to the changing climate and also help mitigate climate change. The Daily DayCent is a biogeochemical model that operates on a daily time step, driven by four ecological drivers, i.e. climate, soil, vegetation, and management practices. The model is widely used to simulate daily fluxes of various gases, plant productivity, nutrient availability, and other ecosystem parameters in response to changes in land management and climate. We employed the DayCent model as a tool to optimize rice cropping practices in Peninsular India so as to develop a set of farming recommendations to ensure a triple win (i.e. higher yield, higher profit and lower GHG emissions). We applied the model to simulate both N2O and CH4 emissions, and crop yields from four rice paddies in three different agro-ecological zones under different management practices, and compared them with measured GHG and yield data from these plots. We found that, like all process based models, the biggest constraint in using the model was input data acquisition. Lack of accurate documentation of historic land use and management practices, missing historical daily weather data, and difficulty in obtaining digital records of soil and crop/vegetation parameters related to our experimental plots came in the way of our execution of this model. We will discuss utilization of estimates based on available literature, or knowledge-based values in lieu of missing measured parameters in our simulations with DayCent which could prove to be a solution to overcome data limitations in modeling with DayCent and other process based models for developing regions of the world.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wolff, D.

In agricultural crop improvement, yield under various stress conditions and limiting factors is assessed experimentally. Of the stresses on plants which affect yield are those due to insects. Ostrinia nubilalis, the European corn borer (corn borer) is a major pest in sweet and field corn in the U.S. There are many ways to fight crop pests such as the corn borer, including (1) application of chemical insecticides, (2) application of natural predators and, (3) improving crop resistance through plant genetics programs. Randomized field trials are used to determine the effectiveness of pest management programs. These trials frequently consist of randomlymore » selected crop plots to which well-defined input regimes are instituted. For example, corn borers might be released onto crop plots in several densities at various stages of crop development, then sprayed with different levels of pesticide. These experiments are duplicated across regions and, in some cases across the country, to determine, in this instance for example, the best pesticide application rate for a given pest density and crop development stage. In order to release these pests onto crop plots, one must have an adequate supply of the insect pest. In winter months studies are carried out in the laboratory to examine chemical and natural pesticide effectiveness, as well as such things as the role of pheromones in moth behavior. The advantage in field trials is that yield data can be garnered directly. In this country, insects are raised for crop research primarily through the US Department of Agriculture, in cooperation with public Land Grant Universities and, by the private sector agricultural concerns - seed companies and others. This study quantifies the airborne allergen exposure of persons working in a Land Grant University entomology lab were allergy to European corn borer was suspected.« less

Pepper plants growth, yield, photosynthetic pigments, and total phenols as affected by foliar application of potassium under different salinity irrigation water

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Irrigation with high salinity water influences plant growth, production of photosynthetic pigments and total phenols, leading to reduction in crop yield and quality. Foliar application of macro- and/or micro-nutrients can, to some extent, mitigate negative effects of high salinity irrigation water o...

Winter cover crops on processing tomato yield, quality, pest pressure, nitrogen availability, and profit margins.

PubMed

Belfry, Kimberly D; Trueman, Cheryl; Vyn, Richard J; Loewen, Steven A; Van Eerd, Laura L

2017-01-01

Much of cover crop research to date focuses on key indicators of impact without considering the implications over multiple years, in the absence of a systems-based approach. To evaluate the effect of three years of autumn cover crops on subsequent processing tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) production in 2010 and 2011, a field split-split-plot factorial design trial with effects of cover crop type, urea ammonium nitrate fertilizer rate (0 or 140 kg N ha-1 preplant broadcast incorporated) and tomato cultivar (early vs. late) was conducted. The main plot factor, cover crop, included a no cover crop control, oat (Avena sativa L.), winter cereal rye (hereafter referred to as rye) (Secale cereale L.), oilseed radish (OSR) (Raphanus sativus L. var. oleiferus Metzg Stokes), and mix of OSR and rye (OSR + rye) treatments. Cover crop biomass of 0.5 to 2.8 and 1.7 to 3.1 Mg ha-1 was attained in early Oct. and the following early May, respectively. In general, OSR increased soil mineral N during cover crop growth and into the succeeding summer tomato growing season, while the remaining cover crops did not differ from the no cover crop control. The lack of a cover crop by N rate interaction in soil and plant N analyses at harvest suggests that growers may not need to modify N fertilizer rates to tomatoes based on cover crop type. Processing tomato fruit quality at harvest (rots, insect or disease damage, Agtron colour, pH, or natural tomato soluble solids (NTSS)) was not affected by cover crop type. In both years, marketable yield in the no cover crop treatment was lower or not statistically different than all planted cover crops. Partial profit margins over both years were 1320 $ ha-1 higher with OSR and $960 higher with oat compared to the no cover crop control. Thus, results from a systems-based approach suggest that the cover crops tested had no observed negative impact on processing tomato production and have the potential to increase marketable yield and profit margins.

Winter cover crops on processing tomato yield, quality, pest pressure, nitrogen availability, and profit margins

PubMed Central

Belfry, Kimberly D.; Trueman, Cheryl; Vyn, Richard J.; Loewen, Steven A.; Van Eerd, Laura L.

2017-01-01

Much of cover crop research to date focuses on key indicators of impact without considering the implications over multiple years, in the absence of a systems-based approach. To evaluate the effect of three years of autumn cover crops on subsequent processing tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) production in 2010 and 2011, a field split-split-plot factorial design trial with effects of cover crop type, urea ammonium nitrate fertilizer rate (0 or 140 kg N ha-1 preplant broadcast incorporated) and tomato cultivar (early vs. late) was conducted. The main plot factor, cover crop, included a no cover crop control, oat (Avena sativa L.), winter cereal rye (hereafter referred to as rye) (Secale cereale L.), oilseed radish (OSR) (Raphanus sativus L. var. oleiferus Metzg Stokes), and mix of OSR and rye (OSR + rye) treatments. Cover crop biomass of 0.5 to 2.8 and 1.7 to 3.1 Mg ha-1 was attained in early Oct. and the following early May, respectively. In general, OSR increased soil mineral N during cover crop growth and into the succeeding summer tomato growing season, while the remaining cover crops did not differ from the no cover crop control. The lack of a cover crop by N rate interaction in soil and plant N analyses at harvest suggests that growers may not need to modify N fertilizer rates to tomatoes based on cover crop type. Processing tomato fruit quality at harvest (rots, insect or disease damage, Agtron colour, pH, or natural tomato soluble solids (NTSS)) was not affected by cover crop type. In both years, marketable yield in the no cover crop treatment was lower or not statistically different than all planted cover crops. Partial profit margins over both years were 1320 $ ha-1 higher with OSR and $960 higher with oat compared to the no cover crop control. Thus, results from a systems-based approach suggest that the cover crops tested had no observed negative impact on processing tomato production and have the potential to increase marketable yield and profit margins. PMID:28683080

Influences of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on warm season temperature and crop yields in the southwestern US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myoung, B.; Kim, S.; Kim, J.; Kafatos, M.

2013-12-01

Despite advancements in agricultural technology, agricultural productivity remains vulnerable to extreme meteorological conditions. This study has found significant impacts of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on extreme temperatures and in turn on crop yields in the Southwestern United States (SW US) region. Analyses of multi-year data of observed temperatures and simulated maize yields reveal that NAO affects positively the daily temperature maxima and minima in the green-up periods (March-June) and that the response of maize yields to NAO varies according to the climatological mean temperatures. In warmer regions, a combination of above-normal NAO in the planting periods and below-normal NAO in the growing periods is favorable for high maize yields by reducing extremely cold days during the planting periods and extremely hot days in the later periods, respectively. In colder regions, continuously above-normal NAO conditions favor higher yields via above normal thermal conditions. Results in this study suggest that NAO predictions can benefit agricultural planning in SW US.

New insights into phosphorus management in agriculture--A crop rotation approach.

PubMed

Łukowiak, Remigiusz; Grzebisz, Witold; Sassenrath, Gretchen F

2016-01-15

This manuscript presents research results examining phosphorus (P) management in a soil–plant system for three variables: i) internal resources of soil available phosphorus, ii) cropping sequence, and iii) external input of phosphorus (manure, fertilizers). The research was conducted in long-term cropping sequences with oilseed rape (10 rotations) and maize (six rotations) over three consecutive growing seasons (2004/2005, 2005/2006, and 2006/2007) in a production farm on soils originated from Albic Luvisols in Poland. The soil available phosphorus pool, measured as calcium chloride extractable P (CCE-P), constituted 28% to 67% of the total phosphorus input (PTI) to the soil–plant system in the spring. Oilseed rape and maize dominant cropping sequences showed a significant potential to utilize the CCE-P pool within the soil profile. Cropping sequences containing oilseed rape significantly affected the CCE-P pool, and in turn contributed to the P(TI). The P(TI) uptake use efficiency was 50% on average. Therefore, the CCE-P pool should be taken into account as an important component of a sound and reliable phosphorus balance. The instability of the yield prediction, based on the P(TI), was mainly due to an imbalanced management of both farmyard manure and phosphorus fertilizer. Oilseed rape plants provide a significant positive impact on the CCE-P pool after harvest, improving the productive stability of the entire cropping sequence. This phenomenon was documented by the P(TI) increase during wheat cultivation following oilseed rape. The Unit Phosphorus Uptake index also showed a higher stability in oilseed rape cropping systems compared to rotations based on maize. Cropping sequences are a primary factor impacting phosphorus management. Judicious implementation of crop rotations can improve soil P resources, efficiency of crop P use, and crop yield and yield stability. Use of cropping sequences can reduce the need for external P sources such as farmyard manure and chemical fertilizers.

Assessment of physical and chemical indicators of sandy soil quality for sustainable crop production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipiec, Jerzy; Usowicz, Boguslaw

2017-04-01

Sandy soils are used in agriculture in many regions of the world. The share of sandy soils in Poland is about 55%. The aim of this study was to assess spatial variability of soil physical and chemical properties affecting soil quality and crop yields in the scale of field (40 x 600 m) during three years of different weather conditions. The experimental field was located on the post glacial and acidified sandy deposits of low productivity (Szaniawy, Podlasie Region, Poland). Physical soil quality indicators included: content of sand, silt, clay and water, bulk density and those chemical: organic carbon, cation exchange capacity, acidity (pH). Measurements of the most soil properties were done at spring and summer each year in topsoil and subsoil layer in 150 points. Crop yields were evaluated in places close to measuring points of the soil properties. Basic statistics including mean, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis minimal, maximal and correlations between the soil properties and crop yields were calculated. Analysis of spatial dependence and distribution for each property was performed using geostatistical methods. Mathematical functions were fitted to the experimentally derived semivariograms that were used for mapping the soil properties and crop yield by kriging. The results showed that the largest variations had clay content (CV 67%) and the lowest: sand content (5%). The crop yield was most negatively correlated with sand content and most positively with soil water content and cation exchange capacity. In general the exponential semivariogram models fairly good matched to empirical data. The range of semivariogram models of the measured indicators varied from 14 m to 250 m indicate high and moderate spatial variability. The values of the nugget-to-sill+nugget ratios showed that most of the soil properties and crop yields exhibited strong and moderate spatial dependency. The kriging maps allowed identification of low yielding sub-field areas that correspond with low soil organic carbon and cation exchange capacity and high content of sand. These areas are considered as management zones to improve crop productivity and soil properties responsible for soil quality and functions. We conclude that soil organic carbon, cation exchange capacity and pH should be included as indicators of soil quality in sandy soils. The study was funded by HORIZON 2020, European Commission, Programme H2020-SFS-2015-2: Soil Care for profitable and sustainable crop production in Europe, project No. 677407 (SoilCare, 2016-2021).

Winter wheat yield estimation of remote sensing research based on WOFOST crop model and leaf area index assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yanling; Gong, Adu; Li, Jing; Wang, Jingmei

2017-04-01

Accurate crop growth monitoring and yield predictive information are significant to improve the sustainable development of agriculture and ensure the security of national food. Remote sensing observation and crop growth simulation models are two new technologies, which have highly potential applications in crop growth monitoring and yield forecasting in recent years. However, both of them have limitations in mechanism or regional application respectively. Remote sensing information can not reveal crop growth and development, inner mechanism of yield formation and the affection of environmental meteorological conditions. Crop growth simulation models have difficulties in obtaining data and parameterization from single-point to regional application. In order to make good use of the advantages of these two technologies, the coupling technique of remote sensing information and crop growth simulation models has been studied. Filtering and optimizing model parameters are key to yield estimation by remote sensing and crop model based on regional crop assimilation. Winter wheat of GaoCheng was selected as the experiment object in this paper. And then the essential data was collected, such as biochemical data and farmland environmental data and meteorological data about several critical growing periods. Meanwhile, the image of environmental mitigation small satellite HJ-CCD was obtained. In this paper, research work and major conclusions are as follows. (1) Seven vegetation indexes were selected to retrieve LAI, and then linear regression model was built up between each of these indexes and the measured LAI. The result shows that the accuracy of EVI model was the highest (R2=0.964 at anthesis stage and R2=0.920 at filling stage). Thus, EVI as the most optimal vegetation index to predict LAI in this paper. (2) EFAST method was adopted in this paper to conduct the sensitive analysis to the 26 initial parameters of the WOFOST model and then a sensitivity index was constructed to evaluate the influence of each parameter mentioned above on the winter wheat yield formation. Finally, six parameters that sensitivity index more than 0.1 as sensitivity factors were chose, which are TSUM1, SLATB1, SLATB2, SPAN, EFFTB3 and TMPF4. To other parameters, we confirmed them via practical measurement and calculation, available literature or WOFOST default. Eventually, we completed the regulation of WOFOST parameters. (3) Look-up table algorithm was used to realize single-point yield estimation through the assimilation of the WOFOST model and the retrieval LAI. This simulation achieved a high accuracy which perfectly meet the purpose of assimilation (R2=0.941 and RMSE=194.58kg/hm2). In this paper, the optimum value of sensitivity parameters were confirmed and the estimation of single-point yield were finished. Key words: yield estimation of winter wheat, LAI, WOFOST crop growth model, assimilation

Efficacy of Cotton Root Destruction and Winter Cover Crops for Suppression of Hoplolaimus columbus.

PubMed

Davis, R F; Baird, R E; McNeil, R D

2000-12-01

The efficacy of rye (Secale cereale) and wheat (Triticum aestivum) winter cover crops and cotton stalk and root destruction (i.e., pulling them up) were evaluated in field tests during two growing seasons for Hoplolaimus columbus management in cotton. The effect of removing debris from the field following root destruction also was evaluated. Wheat and rye produced similar amounts of biomass, and both crops produced more biomass (P

Efficacy of Cotton Root Destruction and Winter Cover Crops for Suppression of Hoplolaimus columbus

PubMed Central

Davis, R. F.; Baird, R. E.; McNeil, R. D.

2000-01-01

The efficacy of rye (Secale cereale) and wheat (Triticum aestivum) winter cover crops and cotton stalk and root destruction (i.e., pulling them up) were evaluated in field tests during two growing seasons for Hoplolaimus columbus management in cotton. The effect of removing debris from the field following root destruction also was evaluated. Wheat and rye produced similar amounts of biomass, and both crops produced more biomass (P ≤ 0.05) following cotton root destruction. Cover crops did not suppress H. columbus population levels or increase subsequent cotton yields. Cotton root destruction did not affect cotton stand or plant height the following year. Cotton root destruction lowered (P ≤ 0.05) H. columbus population levels at planting in 1996 but not in 1997, but cotton yield was not increased by root destruction in either year. Removing debris following root destruction did not lower H. columbus levels compared to leaving debris on the soil surface. This study suggests that a rye or wheat cover crop or cotton root destruction following harvest is ineffective for H. columbus management in cotton. PMID:19271009

Effects of two boron sources each applied at three rates to the strawberry cv. midway on soil and leaf boron levels and fruit yields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blatt, C.R.

1982-01-01

Preplant applications of Borate -65 at 0.56, 1.12 and 2.24 kg B/ha were reflected in significant increases in soil and leaf B levels up to one year following boron application. After 2 cropping seasons soil B level did not reflect rate of applied B and Solubor was applied broadcast at 1.12, 2.24 and 4.48 kg B/ha in the spring of the 3rd cropping season. Soil and leaf B levels and leaf marginal necrosis increased compared with control plots at all rates of applied B at full bloom in the 3rd cropping season. Rate of applied B was reflected in significantmore » soil and leaf B increases one year following application. Fruit yields through four cropping seasons were not affected by any source of rate of applied B. A soil B range of 0.15-0.25 ppM and a leaf B range of 20-30 ppm will give optimum crop response from the Midway strawberry.« less

Cost-benefit trade-offs of bird activity in apple orchards.

PubMed

Peisley, Rebecca K; Saunders, Manu E; Luck, Gary W

2016-01-01

Birds active in apple orchards in south-eastern Australia can contribute positively (e.g., control crop pests) or negatively (e.g., crop damage) to crop yields. Our study is the first to identify net outcomes of these activities, using six apple orchards, varying in management intensity, in south-eastern Australia as a study system. We also conducted a predation experiment using real and artificial codling moth (Cydia pomonella) larvae (a major pest in apple crops). We found that: (1) excluding birds from branches of apple trees resulted in an average of 12.8% more apples damaged by insects; (2) bird damage to apples was low (1.9% of apples); and (3) when trading off the potential benefits (biological control) with costs (bird damage to apples), birds provided an overall net benefit to orchard growers. We found that predation of real codling moth larvae was higher than for plasticine larvae, suggesting that plasticine prey models are not useful for inferring actual predation levels. Our study shows how complex ecological interactions between birds and invertebrates affect crop yield in apples, and provides practical strategies for improving the sustainability of orchard systems.

Impacts of Different Assimilation Methodologies on Crop Yield Estimates Using Active and Passive Microwave Dataset at L-Band

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, P.; Bongiovanni, T. E.; Monsivais-Huertero, A.; Bindlish, R.; Judge, J.

2013-12-01

Accurate estimates of crop yield are important for managing agricultural production and food security. Although the crop growth models, such as the Decision Support System Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT), have been used to simulate crop growth and development, the crop yield estimates still diverge from the reality due to different sources of errors in the models and computation. Auxiliary observations may be incorporated into such dynamic models to improve predictions using data assimilation. Active and passive (AP) microwave observations at L-band (1-2 GHz) are sensitive to dielectric and geometric properties of soil and vegetation, including soil moisture (SM), vegetation water content (VWC), surface roughness, and vegetation structure. Because SM and VWC are one of the governing factors in estimating crop yield, microwave observations may be used to improve crop yield estimates. Current studies have shown that active observations are more sensitive to the surface roughness of soil and vegetation structure during the growing season, while the passive observations are more sensitive to the SM. Backscatter and emission models linked with the DSSAT model (DSSAT-A-P) allow assimilation of microwave observations of backscattering coefficient (σ0) and brightness temperature (TB) may provide biophysically realistic estimates of model states and parameters. The present ESA Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission provides passive observations at 1.41 GHz at 25 km every 2-3 days, and the NASA/CNDAE Aquarius mission provides L-band AP observations at spatial resolution of 150 km with a repeat coverage of 7 days for global SM products. In 2014, the planned NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive mission will provide AP observations at 1.26 and 1.41 GHz at the spatial resolutions of 3 and 30 km, respectively, with a repeat coverage of 2-3 days. The goal of this study is to understand the impacts of assimilation of asynchronous and synchronous AP observations on crop yield estimates. An Ensemble Kalman Filter-based methodology is implemented to incorporate σ0 and TB from Aquarius and SMOS in the DSSAT-A-P model to improve crop yield for two growing seasons of soybean -a normal and a drought affected season- in the rain-fed region of the Brazilian La Plata Basin, South America. Different scenarios of assimilation, including active only, passive only, and combined AP observations were considered. The elements of the state vector included both model states and parameters related to soil and vegetation. The number of elements included in the state vector changed depending upon different scenarios of assimilation and also upon the growth stages. Crop yield estimates were compared for different scenarios during the two seasons. A synthetic experiment conducted previously showed an improvement of crop estimates in the RMSD by 90 kg/ha using combined AP compared to the openloop and active only assimilation over the region.

Global Agriculture Yields and Conflict under Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rising, J.; Cane, M. A.

2013-12-01

Aspects of climate have been shown to correlate significantly with conflict. We investigate a possible pathway for these effects through changes in agriculture yields, as predicted by field crop models (FAO's AquaCrop and DSSAT). Using satellite and station weather data, and surveyed data for soil and management, we simulate major crop yields across all countries between 1961 and 2008, and compare these to FAO and USDA reported yields. Correlations vary by country and by crop, from approximately .8 to -.5. Some of this range in crop model performance is explained by crop varieties, data quality, and other natural, economic, and political features. We also quantify the ability of AquaCrop and DSSAT to simulate yields under past cycles of ENSO as a proxy for their performance under changes in climate. We then describe two statistical models which relate crop yields to conflict events from the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict dataset. The first relates several preceding years of predicted yields of the major grain in each country to any conflict involving that country. The second uses the GREG ethnic group maps to identify differences in predicted yields between neighboring regions. By using variation in predicted yields to explain conflict, rather than actual yields, we can identify the exogenous effects of weather on conflict. Finally, we apply precipitation and temperature time-series under IPCC's A1B scenario to the statistical models. This allows us to estimate the scale of the impact of future yields on future conflict. Centroids of the major growing regions for each country's primary crop, based on USDA FAS consumption. Correlations between simulated yields and reported yields, for AquaCrop and DSSAT, under the assumption that no irrigation, fertilization, or pest control is used. Reported yields are the average of FAO yields and USDA FAS yields, where both are available.

Including climate variability in determination of the optimum rate of N fertilizer application using a crop model: A case study for rainfed corn in eastern Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mesbah, M.; Pattey, E.; Jégo, G.; Geng, X.; Tremblay, N.; Didier, A.

2017-12-01

Identifying optimum nitrogen (N) application rate is essential for increasing agricultural production while limiting potential environmental contaminations caused by release of reactive N, especially for high demand N crops such as corn. The central question of N management is then how the optimum N rate is affected by climate variability for given soil. The experimental determination of optimum N rates involve the analyses of variance on the mean value of crop yield response to various N application rates used by factorial plot based experiments for a few years in several regions. This traditional approach has limitations to capture 1) the non-linear response of yield to N application rates due to large incremental N rates (often more than 40 kg N ha-1) and 2) the ecophysiological response of the crop to climate variability because of limited numbers of growing seasons considered. Modeling on the other hand, does not have such limitations and hence we use a crop model and propose a model-based methodology called Finding NEMO (N Ecophysiologically Modelled Optimum) to identify the optimum N rates for variable agro-climatic conditions and given soil properties. The performance of the methodology is illustrated using the STICS crop model adapted for rainfed corn in the Mixedwood Plains ecozone of eastern Canada (42.3oN 83oW-46.8oN 71oW) where more than 90% of Canadian corn is produced. The simulations were performed using small increment of preplant N application rate (10 kg N ha -1), long time series of daily climatic data (48 to 61 years) for 5 regions along the ecozone, and three contrasting soils per region. The results show that N recommendations should be region and soil specific. Soils with lower available water capacity required more N compared to soil with higher available water capacity. When N rates were at their ecophysiologically optimum level, 10 to 17 kg increase in dry yield could be achieved by adding 1 kg N. Expected yield also affected the optimum N rates for the region and soil. For instance, the probability to achieve a yield of 9.2 t ha-1 at 15% grain moisture on a loamy soil varied from 0 to 73% along the ecozone. For this level of expected yield, the recommended N rates ranged from 64 to 155 kg ha-1, which are relatively less than current provincial recommendations in Ontario and Quebec (120-170 kg ha-1).

N use efficiencies and N2O emissions in two contrasting, biochar amended soils under winter wheat—cover crop—sorghum rotation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hüppi, Roman; Neftel, Albrecht; Lehmann, Moritz F.; Krauss, Maike; Six, Johan; Leifeld, Jens

2016-08-01

Biochar, a carbon-rich, porous pyrolysis product of organic residues, is evaluated as an option to tackle major problems of the global food system. Applied to soil, biochar can sequester carbon and have beneficial effects on nitrogen (N) cycling, thereby enhancing crop yields and reducing nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. There is little understanding of the underlying mechanisms, but many experiments indicated increased yields and manifold changes in N transformation, suggesting an increase in N use efficiency. Biochar’s effects can be positive in extensively managed tropical agriculture, however less is known about its use in temperate soils with intensive fertilisation. We tested the effect of slow pyrolysis wood chip biochar on N use efficiency, crop yields and N2O emissions in a lysimeter system with two soil types (sandy loamy Cambisol and silty loamy Luvisol) in a winter wheat—cover crop—sorghum rotation. 15N-labelled ammonium nitrate fertiliser (170 kg N ha-1 in 3 doses, 10% 15N) was applied to the first crop to monitor its fate in three ecosystem components (plants, soil, leachate). Green rye was sown as cover crop to keep the first year’s fertiliser N for the second year’s sorghum crop (fertilised with 110 kg N ha-1 in two doses and natural abundance 15N). We observed no effects of biochar on N fertiliser use efficiency, yield or N uptake for any crop. Biochar reduced leaching by 43 ± 19% but only towards the end of the experiment with leaching losses being generally low. For both soils N2O emissions were reduced by 15 ± 4% with biochar compared to the control treatments. Our results indicate that application of the chosen biochar induces environmental benefits in terms of N2O emission and N leaching but does not substantially affect the overall N cycle and hence crop performance in the analyzed temperate crop rotation.

Impact of the Gulf of California SST on simulating precipitation and crop productivity in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S.; Kim, J.; Prasad, A. K.; Stack, D. H.; El-Askary, H. M.; Kafatos, M.

2012-12-01

Like other ecosystems, agricultural productivity is substantially affected by climate factors. Therefore, accurate climatic data (i.e. precipitation, temperature, and radiation) is crucial to simulating crop yields. In order to understand and anticipate climate change and its impacts on agricultural productivity in the Southwestern United States, the WRF regional climate model (RCM) and the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) were employed for simulating crop production. 19 years of WRF RCM output show that there is a strong dry bias during the warm season, especially in Arizona. Consequently, the APSIM crop model indicates very low crop yields in this region. We suspect that the coarse resolution of reanalysis data could not resolve the relatively warm Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Gulf of California (GC), causing the SST to be up to 10 degrees lower than the climatology. In the Southwestern United States, a significant amount of precipitation is associated with North American Monsoon (NAM). During the monsoon season, the low-level moisture is advected to the Southwestern United States via the GC, which is known to be the dominant moisture source. Thus, high-resolution SST data in the GC is required for RCM simulations to accurately represent a reasonable amount of precipitation in the region, allowing reliable evaluation of the impacts on regional ecosystems.and evaluate impacts on regional ecosystems. To evaluate the influence of SST on agriculture in the Southwestern U.S., two sets of numerical simulations were constructed: a control, using unresolved SST of GC, and daily updated SST data from the MODIS satellite sensor. The meteorological drivers from each of the 6 year RCM runs were provided as input to the APSIM model to determine the crop yield. Analyses of the simulated crop production, and the interannual variation of the meteorological drivers, demonstrate the influence of SST on crop yields in the Southwestern United States.

Enhancing USDA's Retrospective Analog Year Analyses Using NASA Satellite Precipitation and Soil Moisture Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teng, W. L.; Shannon, H. D.

2013-12-01

The USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) is responsible for monitoring weather and climate impacts on domestic and foreign crop development. One of WAOB's primary goals is to determine the net cumulative effect of weather and climate anomalies on final crop yields. To this end, a broad array of information is consulted, including maps, charts, and time series of recent weather, climate, and crop observations; numerical output from weather and crop models; and reports from the press, USDA attachés, and foreign governments. The resulting agricultural weather assessments are published in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, to keep farmers, policy makers, and commercial agricultural interests informed of weather and climate impacts on agriculture. Because both the amount and timing of precipitation significantly affect crop yields, WAOB has often, as part of its operational process, used historical time series of surface-based precipitation observations to visually identify growing seasons with similar (analog) weather patterns as, and help estimate crop yields for, the current growing season. As part of a larger effort to improve WAOB estimates by integrating NASA remote sensing observations and research results into WAOB's decision-making environment, a more rigorous, statistical method for identifying analog years was developed. This method, termed the analog index (AI), is based on the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The AI was computed for five study areas and six growing seasons of data analyzed (2003-2007 as potential analog years and 2008 as the target year). Previously reported results compared the performance of AI for time series derived from surface-based observations vs. satellite-retrieved precipitation data. Those results showed that, for all five areas, crop yield estimates derived from satellite-retrieved precipitation data are closer to measured yields than are estimates derived from surface-based precipitation observations. Subsequent work has compared the relative performance of AI for time series derived from satellite-retrieved surface soil moisture data and from root zone soil moisture derived from the assimilation of surface soil moisture data into a land surface model. These results, which also showed the potential benefits of satellite data for analog year analyses, will be presented.

Impact of crop rotation and soil amendments on long-term no-tilled soybean yields

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Continuous cropping systems without cover crops are perceived as unsustainable for long-term yield and soil health. To test this, cropping sequence and cover crop effects on soybean (Glycine max L.) yields were assessed. Main effects were 10 cropping sequences of soybean, corn (Zea mays L.), and co...

Tradeoffs between water requirements and yield stability in annual vs. perennial crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vico, Giulia; Brunsell, Nathaniel A.

2018-02-01

Population growth and changes in climate and diets will likely further increase the pressure on agriculture and water resources globally. Currently, staple crops are obtained from annuals plants. A shift towards perennial crops may enhance many ecosystem services, but at the cost of higher water requirements and lower yields. It is still unclear when the advantages of perennial crops overcome their disadvantages and perennial crops are thus a sustainable solution. Here we combine a probabilistic description of the soil water balance and crop development with an extensive dataset of traits of congeneric annuals and perennials to identify the conditions for which perennial crops are more viable than annual ones with reference to yield, yield stability, and effective use of water. We show that the larger and more developed roots of perennial crops allow a better exploitation of soil water resources and a reduction of yield variability with respect to annual species, but their yields remain lower when considering grain crops. Furthermore, perennial crops have higher and more variable irrigation requirements and lower water productivity. These results are important to understand the potential consequences for yield, its stability, and water resource use of a shift from annual to perennial crops and, more generally, if perennial crops may be more resilient than annual crops in the face of climatic fluctuations.

Possible mechanisms of pollination failure in hybrid carrot seed and implications for industry in a changing climate.

PubMed

Broussard, Melissa Ann; Mas, Flore; Howlett, Brad; Pattemore, David; Tylianakis, Jason M

2017-01-01

Approximately one-third of our food globally comes from insect-pollinated crops. The dependence on pollinators has been linked to yield instability, which could potentially become worse in a changing climate. Insect-pollinated crops produced via hybrid breeding (20% of fruit and vegetable production globally) are especially at risk as they are even more reliant on pollinators than open-pollinated plants. We already observe a wide range of fruit and seed yields between different cultivars of the same crop species, and it is unknown how existing variation will be affected in a changing climate. In this study, we examined how three hybrid carrot varieties with differential performance in the field responded to three temperature regimes (cooler than the historical average, average, and warmer that the historical average). We tested how temperature affected the plants' ability to set seed (seed set, pollen viability) as well as attract pollinators (nectar composition, floral volatiles). We found that there were significant intrinsic differences in nectar phenolics, pollen viability, and seed set between the carrot varieties, and that higher temperatures did not exaggerate those differences. However, elevated temperature did negatively affect several characteristics relating to the attraction and reward of pollinators (lower volatile production and higher nectar sugar concentration) across all varieties, which may decrease the attractiveness of this already pollinator-limited crop. Given existing predictions of lower pollinator populations in a warmer climate, reduced attractiveness would add yet another challenge to future food production.

Possible mechanisms of pollination failure in hybrid carrot seed and implications for industry in a changing climate

PubMed Central

Mas, Flore; Howlett, Brad; Pattemore, David; Tylianakis, Jason M.

2017-01-01

Approximately one-third of our food globally comes from insect-pollinated crops. The dependence on pollinators has been linked to yield instability, which could potentially become worse in a changing climate. Insect-pollinated crops produced via hybrid breeding (20% of fruit and vegetable production globally) are especially at risk as they are even more reliant on pollinators than open-pollinated plants. We already observe a wide range of fruit and seed yields between different cultivars of the same crop species, and it is unknown how existing variation will be affected in a changing climate. In this study, we examined how three hybrid carrot varieties with differential performance in the field responded to three temperature regimes (cooler than the historical average, average, and warmer that the historical average). We tested how temperature affected the plants' ability to set seed (seed set, pollen viability) as well as attract pollinators (nectar composition, floral volatiles). We found that there were significant intrinsic differences in nectar phenolics, pollen viability, and seed set between the carrot varieties, and that higher temperatures did not exaggerate those differences. However, elevated temperature did negatively affect several characteristics relating to the attraction and reward of pollinators (lower volatile production and higher nectar sugar concentration) across all varieties, which may decrease the attractiveness of this already pollinator-limited crop. Given existing predictions of lower pollinator populations in a warmer climate, reduced attractiveness would add yet another challenge to future food production. PMID:28665949

Utilization of heavy metal-rich tannery sludge for sweet basil (Ocimum basilicum L.) cultivation.

PubMed

Chand, Sukhmal; Singh, Shweta; Singh, Vinay Kumar; Patra, D D

2015-05-01

Unlike food crops, essential oil-bearing crops in which the oil is extracted through hydro-distillation can be a suitable crop to be grown in heavy metal-polluted soils as the oil does not carry any heavy metal. In a field experiment conducted at CIMAP, Lucknow, India during 2011 and 2012, influence of six doses of tannery sludge viz 0, 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 t ha(-1) were tested, taking sweet basil (Ocimum basilicum) as the test crop. Maximum herb yield was obtained with the application of sludge at 20 t ha(-1). While in root, accumulation of Cd and Pb increased significantly up to 20 t ha(-1), Cr accumulation increased with increasing the dose of tannery sludge reaching maximum at 50 t ha(-1). Essential oil yield of basil (Ocimum basilicum) was significantly affected due to sludge application. Quality of essential oil, in term of chemical constituents, however, was marginally influenced due to tannery sludge application.

Land management on soil physical properties and maize (Zea mays L. var. BIMA) growth (An adaptation strategy of climate change)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaki, M. K.; Komariah; Pujiasmanto, B.; Noda, K.

2018-03-01

Water deficit is a problem on rainfed maize production but can be solved by proper land management. The objective of the study to determine the soil physical properties and maize yield affected by land management to adapt to drought. The experimental design was a randomized complete block using 5 treatments with 4 repetitions, including: (i) Control (KO), (ii) Rice Straw Mulched (MC), (iii) Compost Fertilizer (CF), (iv) In-Organic Fertilizer (AF), (v) Legume Cover crop (CC). Soil physical and maize growth properties namely soil moisture, soil texture, soil bulk density, plant height, biomass, and yield were investigated. The results showed that composting land increased soil water availability and provided nutrient to crops and thus increase soil physical properties, maize growth and yield. Although inorganic fertilizer also increased plant growth and yield, but it did not improve soil physical properties.

Potato Production as Affected by Crop Parameters and Meteoro Logical Elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira, André B.; Villa Nova, Nilson A.; Pereira, Antonio R.

Meteorological elements directly influence crop potential productivity, regulating its transpiration, photosynthesis, and respiration processes in such a way as to control the growth and development of the plants throughout their physiological mechanisms at a given site. The interaction of the meteorological factors with crop responses is complex and has been the target of attention of many researchers from all over the world. There is currently a great deal of interest in estimating crop productivity as a function of climate by means of different crop weather models in order to help growers choose planting locations and timing to produce high yields with good tuber quality under site-specific atmospheric conditions. In this manuscript an agrometeorological model based on maximum carbon dioxide assimilation rates for C3 plants, fraction of photosynthetically active radiation, air temperature, photoperiod duration, and crop parameters is assessed as to its performance under tropical conditions. Crop parameters include leaf areaand harvest indexes, dry matter content of potato tubers, and crop cycles to estimate potato potential yields. Productivity obtained with the cultivar Itararé, grown with adequate soil water supply conditions at four different sites in the State of São Paulo (Itararé, Piracicaba, TatuÍ, and São Manuel), Brazil, were used to test the model. The results showed thatthe agrometeorological model tested under the climatic conditions of the State of São Paulo in general underestimated irrigated potato yield by less than 10%.This justifies the recommendation to test the performance of the model in study in other climaticregions for different crops and genotypes under optimal irrigationconditions in further scientific investigations. We reached the conclusion that the agrometeorological model taking into account information on leaf area index, photoperiod duration, photosynthetically active radiation and air temperature is feasible to estimate potential tuber yield at a commercial scale. The performance test shows that it can then be used to forecast harvest time, and also as an effective tool to predict the suitability of potential regions to the cultivation of potato crop, cultivar Itararé, at the State of São Paulo, Brazil.

Climate impacts on palm oil yields in the Nigerian Niger Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okoro, Stanley U.; Schickhoff, Udo; Boehner, Juergen; Schneider, Uwe A.; Huth, Neil

2016-04-01

Palm oil production has increased in recent decades and is estimated to increase further. The optimal role of palm oil production, however, is controversial because of resource conflicts with alternative land uses. Local conditions and climate change affect resource competition and the desirability of palm oil production. Based on this, crop yield simulations using different climate model output under different climate scenarios could be important tool in addressing the problem of uncertainty quantification among different climate model outputs. Previous studies on this region have focused mostly on single experimental fields, not considering variations in Agro-Ecological Zones, climatic conditions, varieties and management practices and, in most cases not extending to various IPCC climate scenarios and were mostly based on single climate model output. Furthermore, the uncertainty quantification of the climate- impact model has rarely been investigated on this region. To this end we use the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to simulate the regional climate impact on oil palm yield over the Nigerian Niger Delta. We also examine whether the use of crop yield model output ensemble reduces the uncertainty rather than the use of climate model output ensemble. The results could serve as a baseline for policy makers in this region in understanding the interaction between potentials of energy crop production of the region as well as its food security and other negative feedbacks that could be associated with bioenergy from oil palm. Keywords: Climate Change, Climate impacts, Land use and Crop yields.

Statistical emulators of maize, rice, soybean and wheat yields from global gridded crop models

DOE PAGES

Blanc, Élodie

2017-01-26

This study provides statistical emulators of crop yields based on global gridded crop model simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Fast Track project. The ensemble of simulations is used to build a panel of annual crop yields from five crop models and corresponding monthly summer weather variables for over a century at the grid cell level globally. This dataset is then used to estimate, for each crop and gridded crop model, the statistical relationship between yields, temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide. This study considers a new functional form to better capture the non-linear response of yields to weather,more » especially for extreme temperature and precipitation events, and now accounts for the effect of soil type. In- and out-of-sample validations show that the statistical emulators are able to replicate spatial patterns of yields crop levels and changes overtime projected by crop models reasonably well, although the accuracy of the emulators varies by model and by region. This study therefore provides a reliable and accessible alternative to global gridded crop yield models. By emulating crop yields for several models using parsimonious equations, the tools provide a computationally efficient method to account for uncertainty in climate change impact assessments.« less

Statistical emulators of maize, rice, soybean and wheat yields from global gridded crop models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blanc, Élodie

This study provides statistical emulators of crop yields based on global gridded crop model simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Fast Track project. The ensemble of simulations is used to build a panel of annual crop yields from five crop models and corresponding monthly summer weather variables for over a century at the grid cell level globally. This dataset is then used to estimate, for each crop and gridded crop model, the statistical relationship between yields, temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide. This study considers a new functional form to better capture the non-linear response of yields to weather,more » especially for extreme temperature and precipitation events, and now accounts for the effect of soil type. In- and out-of-sample validations show that the statistical emulators are able to replicate spatial patterns of yields crop levels and changes overtime projected by crop models reasonably well, although the accuracy of the emulators varies by model and by region. This study therefore provides a reliable and accessible alternative to global gridded crop yield models. By emulating crop yields for several models using parsimonious equations, the tools provide a computationally efficient method to account for uncertainty in climate change impact assessments.« less

Yield and Economic Responses of Peanut to Crop Rotation Sequence

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Proper crop rotation is essential to maintaining high peanut yield and quality. However, the economic considerations of maintaining or altering crop rotation sequences must incorporate the commodity prices, production costs, and yield responses of all crops in, or potentially in, the crop rotation ...

Adapting crop rotations to climate change in regional impact modelling assessments.

PubMed

Teixeira, Edmar I; de Ruiter, John; Ausseil, Anne-Gaelle; Daigneault, Adam; Johnstone, Paul; Holmes, Allister; Tait, Andrew; Ewert, Frank

2018-03-01

The environmental and economic sustainability of future cropping systems depends on adaptation to climate change. Adaptation studies commonly rely on agricultural systems models to integrate multiple components of production systems such as crops, weather, soil and farmers' management decisions. Previous adaptation studies have mostly focused on isolated monocultures. However, in many agricultural regions worldwide, multi-crop rotations better represent local production systems. It is unclear how adaptation interventions influence crops grown in sequences. We develop a catchment-scale assessment to investigate the effects of tactical adaptations (choice of genotype and sowing date) on yield and underlying crop-soil factors of rotations. Based on locally surveyed data, a silage-maize followed by catch-crop-wheat rotation was simulated with the APSIM model for the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, two time periods (1985-2004 and 2080-2100) and six climate models across the Kaituna catchment in New Zealand. Results showed that direction and magnitude of climate change impacts, and the response to adaptation, varied spatially and were affected by rotation carryover effects due to agronomical (e.g. timing of sowing and harvesting) and soil (e.g. residual nitrogen, N) aspects. For example, by adapting maize to early-sowing dates under a warmer climate, there was an advance in catch crop establishment which enhanced residual soil N uptake. This dynamics, however, differed with local environment and choice of short- or long-cycle maize genotypes. Adaptation was insufficient to neutralize rotation yield losses in lowlands but consistently enhanced yield gains in highlands, where other constraints limited arable cropping. The positive responses to adaptation were mainly due to increases in solar radiation interception across the entire growth season. These results provide deeper insights on the dynamics of climate change impacts for crop rotation systems. Such knowledge can be used to develop improved regional impact assessments for situations where multi-crop rotations better represent predominant agricultural systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Heat and drought stresses in crops and approaches for their mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamaoui, Mouna; Jemo, Martin; Datla, Raju; Bekkaoui, Faouzi

2018-02-01

Drought and heat are major abiotic stresses that reduce crop productivity and weaken global food security, especially given the current and growing impacts of climate change and increases in the occurrence and severity of both stress factors. Plants have developed dynamic responses at the morphological, physiological and biochemical levels allowing them to escape and/or adapt to unfavourable environmental conditions. Nevertheless, even the mildest heat and drought stress negatively affects crop yield. Further, several independent studies have shown that increased temperature and drought can reduce crop yields by as much as 50%. Response to stress is complex and involves several factors including signaling, transcription factors, hormones, and secondary metabolites. The reproductive phase of development, leading to the grain production is shown to be more sensitive to heat stress in several crops. Advances coming from biotechnology including progress in genomics and information technology may mitigate the detrimental effects of heat and drought through the use of agronomic management practices and the development of crop varieties with increased productivity under stress. This review presents recent progress in key areas relevant to plant drought and heat tolerance. Furthermore, an overview and implications of physiological, biochemical and genetic aspects in the context of heat and drought are presented. Potential strategies to improve crop productivity are discussed.

Heat and Drought Stresses in Crops and Approaches for Their Mitigation.

PubMed

Lamaoui, Mouna; Jemo, Martin; Datla, Raju; Bekkaoui, Faouzi

2018-01-01

Drought and heat are major abiotic stresses that reduce crop productivity and weaken global food security, especially given the current and growing impacts of climate change and increases in the occurrence and severity of both stress factors. Plants have developed dynamic responses at the morphological, physiological and biochemical levels allowing them to escape and/or adapt to unfavorable environmental conditions. Nevertheless, even the mildest heat and drought stress negatively affects crop yield. Further, several independent studies have shown that increased temperature and drought can reduce crop yields by as much as 50%. Response to stress is complex and involves several factors including signaling, transcription factors, hormones, and secondary metabolites. The reproductive phase of development, leading to the grain production is shown to be more sensitive to heat stress in several crops. Advances coming from biotechnology including progress in genomics and information technology may mitigate the detrimental effects of heat and drought through the use of agronomic management practices and the development of crop varieties with increased productivity under stress. This review presents recent progress in key areas relevant to plant drought and heat tolerance. Furthermore, an overview and implications of physiological, biochemical and genetic aspects in the context of heat and drought are presented. Potential strategies to improve crop productivity are discussed.

Evaluation of Projected Agricultural Climate Risk over the Contiguous US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, X.; Troy, T. J.; Devineni, N.

2017-12-01

Food demands are rising due to an increasing population with changing food preferences, which places pressure on agricultural production. Additionally, climate extremes have recently highlighted the vulnerability of our agricultural system to climate variability. This study seeks to fill two important gaps in current knowledge: how does the widespread response of irrigated crops differ from rainfed and how can we best account for uncertainty in yield responses. We developed a stochastic approach to evaluate climate risk quantitatively to better understand the historical impacts of climate change and estimate the future impacts it may bring about to agricultural system. Our model consists of Bayesian regression, distribution fitting, and Monte Carlo simulation to simulate rainfed and irrigated crop yields at the US county level. The model was fit using historical data for 1970-2010 and was then applied over different climate regions in the contiguous US using the CMIP5 climate projections. The relative importance of many major growing season climate indices, such as consecutive dry days without rainfall or heavy precipitation, was evaluated to determine what climate indices play a role in affecting future crop yields. The statistical modeling framework also evaluated the impact of irrigation by using county-level irrigated and rainfed yields separately. Furthermore, the projected years with negative yield anomalies were specifically evaluated in terms of magnitude, trend and potential climate drivers. This framework provides estimates of the agricultural climate risk for the 21st century that account for the full uncertainty of climate occurrences, range of crop response, and spatial correlation in climate. The results of this study can contribute to decision making about crop choice and water use in an uncertain future climate.

Understanding the relationship between the variability in agrometeorological indices and adaptation practices across the Canadian Prairies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chipanshi, A.; Qi, D.; Zhang, Y.; Cherneski, P.

2017-12-01

In an attempt to understand how agriculture will adapt to the changing and variable climate, crop based agrometeorological indices including the Effective Growing Degree Days (EGDDs), Growing Season Length (GSL), Heat waves, Water Demand (Precipitation - Evapotranspiration) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were analyzed in terms of frequency, duration and trend over a 63-year timeframe (1950 to 2012) from the Canadian Prairies and related to crop production. The heat based indices (EGDD, GSL and Heat waves) increased over the analysis period due to an upward increase in the observed mean temperature. The change was most noticeable in the northern portion of the study area where agriculture is limited by insufficient heat units under the present climate. Heat waves became more frequent in the southern parts of the study area (there were more days above the 30oC threshold). Water availability as assessed from water demand (P-PE) and SPEI trended downward especially in Alberta and Saskatchewan. In spite of the increased severity and frequency in water deficits, there was a noticeable reduction in the variability of crop yield over time. This was attributed to the increased adaptive capacity that has been gained through the use of improved seed hybrids, fertilizer, the use of fungicides and adoption of best management practices such as zero till and direct seeding. After crop yields were de-trended to remove effects of technology, the cumulative precipitation during the growing season explained the majority of the variance in crop yield. This initial analysis has set the stage for analyzing the characteristics of agrometeorological indices under climate change scenarios and how accumulated precipitation during the growing season will affect crop yield and production.

Biophysical and Economic Uncertainty in the Analysis of Poverty Impacts of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hertel, T. W.; Lobell, D. B.; Verma, M.

2011-12-01

This paper seeks to understand the main sources of uncertainty in assessing the impacts of climate change on agricultural output, international trade, and poverty. We incorporate biophysical uncertainty by sampling from a distribution of global climate model predictions for temperature and precipitation for 2050. The implications of these realizations for crop yields around the globe are estimated using the recently published statistical crop yield functions provided by Lobell, Schlenker and Costa-Roberts (2011). By comparing these yields to those predicted under current climate, we obtain the likely change in crop yields owing to climate change. The economic uncertainty in our analysis relates to the response of the global economic system to these biophysical shocks. We use a modified version of the GTAP model to elicit the impact of the biophysical shocks on global patterns of production, consumption, trade and poverty. Uncertainty in these responses is reflected in the econometrically estimated parameters governing the responsiveness of international trade, consumption, production (and hence the intensive margin of supply response), and factor supplies (which govern the extensive margin of supply response). We sample from the distributions of these parameters as specified by Hertel et al. (2007) and Keeney and Hertel (2009). We find that, even though it is difficult to predict where in the world agricultural crops will be favorably affected by climate change, the responses of economic variables, including output and exports can be far more robust (Table 1). This is due to the fact that supply and demand decisions depend on relative prices, and relative prices depend on productivity changes relative to other crops in a given region, or relative to similar crops in other parts of the world. We also find that uncertainty in poverty impacts of climate change appears to be almost entirely driven by biophysical uncertainty.

Catch crops as universal and effective method for reducing nitrogen leaching loss in spring cereal production: A meta-analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valkama, Elena; Lemola, Riitta; Känkänen, Hannu; Turtola, Eila

2016-04-01

Sustainable farms produce adequate amounts of a high-quality product, protect their resources and are both environmentally friendly and economically profitable. Nitrogen (N) fertilization decisively influences the cereal yields as well as increases soil N balance (N input in fertilizer - N output in harvested yield), thereby leading to N losses to the environment. However, while N input reduction affects soil N balance, such approach would markedly reduce N leaching loss only in case of abnormally high N balances. As an alternative approach, the growing of catch crops aims to prevent nutrient leaching in autumn after harvest and during the following winter, but due to competition, catch crops may also reduce yields of the main crop. Although studies have explored the environmental effects of catch crops in cereal production in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Norway) during the past 40 years, none has yet carried out a meta-analysis. We quantitatively summarized 35 studies on the effect of catch crops (non-legume and legume) undersown in spring cereals on N leaching loss or its risk as estimated by the content of soil nitrate N or its sum with ammonium in late autumn. The meta-analysis also included the grain yield and N content of spring cereals. To identify sources of variation, we studied the effects of soil texture and management (ploughing time, the amount of N applied, fertilizer type), as well as climatic (annual precipitation) and experimental conditions (duration of experiments, lysimeter vs. field experiments). Finally, we examined whether the results differed between the countries or over the decades. Compared to control groups with no catch crops, non-legume catch crops, mainly ryegrass species, reduced N leaching loss by 50% on average, and soil nitrate N or inorganic N by 35% in autumn. Italian ryegrass depleted soil N more effectively (by 60%) than did perennial ryegrass or Westerwolds ryegrass (by 25%). In contrast, legumes (white and red clovers) did not diminish the risk for N leaching. Otherwise, the effect on N leaching and its risk were consistent across the studies conducted in different countries on clay and coarse-textured mineral soils with different ploughing times, N fertilization rates (50-160 kg/ ha), and amounts of annual precipitation (480-1040 mm). Non-legume catch crops reduced grain yield by 3% with no changes in grain N content. In contrast, legumes and mixed catch crops increased both grain yield and grain N content by 6%. In spring cereal production, undersown non-legume catch crops are deemed a universal and effective method for reducing N leaching loss across the various soils, management practices and weather conditions in the Nordic countries. The environmental benefits of using non-legume catch crops appear considerable compared to the adverse reduction in grain yields, amounting to only a few percent. Catch crops are advisable for fields at high risk for N leaching (e.g., sandy soils or soils and crops requiring high N fertilization).

Impacts of Near-Term Climate Change on Irrigation Demands and Crop Yields in the Columbia River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajagopalan, K.; Chinnayakanahalli, K. J.; Stockle, C. O.; Nelson, R. L.; Kruger, C. E.; Brady, M. P.; Malek, K.; Dinesh, S. T.; Barber, M. E.; Hamlet, A. F.; Yorgey, G. G.; Adam, J. C.

2018-03-01

Adaptation to a changing climate is critical to address future global food and water security challenges. While these challenges are global, successful adaptation strategies are often generated at regional scales; therefore, regional-scale studies are critical to inform adaptation decision making. While climate change affects both water supply and demand, water demand is relatively understudied, especially at regional scales. The goal of this work is to address this gap, and characterize the direct impacts of near-term (for the 2030s) climate change and elevated CO2 levels on regional-scale crop yields and irrigation demands for the Columbia River basin (CRB). This question is addressed through a coupled crop-hydrology model that accounts for site-specific and crop-specific characteristics that control regional-scale response to climate change. The overall near-term outlook for agricultural production in the CRB is largely positive, with yield increases for most crops and small overall increases in irrigation demand. However, there are crop-specific and location-specific negative impacts as well, and the aggregate regional response of irrigation demands to climate change is highly sensitive to the spatial crop mix. Low-value pasture/hay varieties of crops—typically not considered in climate change assessments—play a significant role in determining the regional response of irrigation demands to climate change, and thus cannot be overlooked. While, the overall near-term outlook for agriculture in the region is largely positive, there may be potential for a negative outlook further into the future, and it is important to consider this in long-term planning.

Analysis of climate signals in the crop yield record of sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Hoffman, Alexis L; Kemanian, Armen R; Forest, Chris E

2018-01-01

Food security and agriculture productivity assessments in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) require a better understanding of how climate and other drivers influence regional crop yields. In this paper, our objective was to identify the climate signal in the realized yields of maize, sorghum, and groundnut in SSA. We explored the relation between crop yields and scale-compatible climate data for the 1962-2014 period using Random Forest, a diagnostic machine learning technique. We found that improved agricultural technology and country fixed effects are three times more important than climate variables for explaining changes in crop yields in SSA. We also found that increasing temperatures reduced yields for all three crops in the temperature range observed in SSA, while precipitation increased yields up to a level roughly matching crop evapotranspiration. Crop yields exhibited both linear and nonlinear responses to temperature and precipitation, respectively. For maize, technology steadily increased yields by about 1% (13 kg/ha) per year while increasing temperatures decreased yields by 0.8% (10 kg/ha) per °C. This study demonstrates that although we should expect increases in future crop yields due to improving technology, the potential yields could be progressively reduced due to warmer and drier climates. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Increasing Crop Diversity Mitigates Weather Variations and Improves Yield Stability

PubMed Central

Gaudin, Amélie C. M.; Tolhurst, Tor N.; Ker, Alan P.; Janovicek, Ken; Tortora, Cristina; Martin, Ralph C.; Deen, William

2015-01-01

Cropping sequence diversification provides a systems approach to reduce yield variations and improve resilience to multiple environmental stresses. Yield advantages of more diverse crop rotations and their synergistic effects with reduced tillage are well documented, but few studies have quantified the impact of these management practices on yields and their stability when soil moisture is limiting or in excess. Using yield and weather data obtained from a 31-year long term rotation and tillage trial in Ontario, we tested whether crop rotation diversity is associated with greater yield stability when abnormal weather conditions occur. We used parametric and non-parametric approaches to quantify the impact of rotation diversity (monocrop, 2-crops, 3-crops without or with one or two legume cover crops) and tillage (conventional or reduced tillage) on yield probabilities and the benefits of crop diversity under different soil moisture and temperature scenarios. Although the magnitude of rotation benefits varied with crops, weather patterns and tillage, yield stability significantly increased when corn and soybean were integrated into more diverse rotations. Introducing small grains into short corn-soybean rotation was enough to provide substantial benefits on long-term soybean yields and their stability while the effects on corn were mostly associated with the temporal niche provided by small grains for underseeded red clover or alfalfa. Crop diversification strategies increased the probability of harnessing favorable growing conditions while decreasing the risk of crop failure. In hot and dry years, diversification of corn-soybean rotations and reduced tillage increased yield by 7% and 22% for corn and soybean respectively. Given the additional advantages associated with cropping system diversification, such a strategy provides a more comprehensive approach to lowering yield variability and improving the resilience of cropping systems to multiple environmental stresses. This could help to sustain future yield levels in challenging production environments. PMID:25658914

Hormonal and metabolic regulation of source-sink relations under salinity and drought: from plant survival to crop yield stability.

PubMed

Albacete, Alfonso A; Martínez-Andújar, Cristina; Pérez-Alfocea, Francisco

2014-01-01

Securing food production for the growing population will require closing the gap between potential crop productivity under optimal conditions and the yield captured by farmers under a changing environment, which is termed agronomical stability. Drought and salinity are major environmental factors contributing to the yield gap ultimately by inducing premature senescence in the photosynthetic source tissues of the plant and by reducing the number and growth of the harvestable sink organs by affecting the transport and use of assimilates between and within them. However, the changes in source-sink relations induced by stress also include adaptive changes in the reallocation of photoassimilates that influence crop productivity, ranging from plant survival to yield stability. While the massive utilization of -omic technologies in model plants is discovering hundreds of genes with potential impacts in alleviating short-term applied drought and salinity stress (usually measured as plant survival), only in relatively few cases has an effect on crop yield stability been proven. However, achieving the former does not necessarily imply the latter. Plant survival only requires water status conservation and delayed leaf senescence (thus maintaining source activity) that is usually accompanied by growth inhibition. However, yield stability will additionally require the maintenance or increase in sink activity in the reproductive structures, thus contributing to the transport of assimilates from the source leaves and to delayed stress-induced leaf senescence. This review emphasizes the role of several metabolic and hormonal factors influencing not only the source strength, but especially the sink activity and their inter-relations, and their potential to improve yield stability under drought and salinity stresses. © 2013.

Crop yield responses to a hardwood biochar across varied soils and climate conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Biochars applied to soil for crop yield improvements have produced mixed results. The assorted crop yield responses may be linked to employing biochars with diverse chemical and physical characteristics. To clarify if biochars can improve crop yields, it may be prudent to evaluate one biochar type...

How does spatial and temporal resolution of vegetation index impact crop yield estimation?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Timely and accurate estimation of crop yield before harvest is critical for food market and administrative planning. Remote sensing data have long been used in crop yield estimation for decades. The process-based approach uses light use efficiency model to estimate crop yield. Vegetation index (VI) ...

Intercropping Competition between Apple Trees and Crops in Agroforestry Systems on the Loess Plateau of China

PubMed Central

Gao, Lubo; Xu, Huasen; Bi, Huaxing; Xi, Weimin; Bao, Biao; Wang, Xiaoyan; Bi, Chao; Chang, Yifang

2013-01-01

Agroforestry has been widely practiced in the Loess Plateau region of China because of its prominent effects in reducing soil and water losses, improving land-use efficiency and increasing economic returns. However, the agroforestry practices may lead to competition between crops and trees for underground soil moisture and nutrients, and the trees on the canopy layer may also lead to shortage of light for crops. In order to minimize interspecific competition and maximize the benefits of tree-based intercropping systems, we studied photosynthesis, growth and yield of soybean (Glycine max L. Merr.) and peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) by measuring photosynthetically active radiation, net photosynthetic rate, soil moisture and soil nutrients in a plantation of apple (Malus pumila M.) at a spacing of 4 m × 5 m on the Loess Plateau of China. The results showed that for both intercropping systems in the study region, soil moisture was the primary factor affecting the crop yields followed by light. Deficiency of the soil nutrients also had a significant impact on crop yields. Compared with soybean, peanut was more suitable for intercropping with apple trees to obtain economic benefits in the region. We concluded that apple-soybean and apple-peanut intercropping systems can be practical and beneficial in the region. However, the distance between crops and tree rows should be adjusted to minimize interspecies competition. Agronomic measures such as regular canopy pruning, root barriers, additional irrigation and fertilization also should be applied in the intercropping systems. PMID:23936246

Intercropping competition between apple trees and crops in agroforestry systems on the Loess Plateau of China.

PubMed

Gao, Lubo; Xu, Huasen; Bi, Huaxing; Xi, Weimin; Bao, Biao; Wang, Xiaoyan; Bi, Chao; Chang, Yifang

2013-01-01

Agroforestry has been widely practiced in the Loess Plateau region of China because of its prominent effects in reducing soil and water losses, improving land-use efficiency and increasing economic returns. However, the agroforestry practices may lead to competition between crops and trees for underground soil moisture and nutrients, and the trees on the canopy layer may also lead to shortage of light for crops. In order to minimize interspecific competition and maximize the benefits of tree-based intercropping systems, we studied photosynthesis, growth and yield of soybean (Glycine max L. Merr.) and peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) by measuring photosynthetically active radiation, net photosynthetic rate, soil moisture and soil nutrients in a plantation of apple (Malus pumila M.) at a spacing of 4 m × 5 m on the Loess Plateau of China. The results showed that for both intercropping systems in the study region, soil moisture was the primary factor affecting the crop yields followed by light. Deficiency of the soil nutrients also had a significant impact on crop yields. Compared with soybean, peanut was more suitable for intercropping with apple trees to obtain economic benefits in the region. We concluded that apple-soybean and apple-peanut intercropping systems can be practical and beneficial in the region. However, the distance between crops and tree rows should be adjusted to minimize interspecies competition. Agronomic measures such as regular canopy pruning, root barriers, additional irrigation and fertilization also should be applied in the intercropping systems.

Airborne and ground-based remote sensing for the estimation of evapotranspiration and yield of bean, potato, and sugar beet crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayanthi, Harikishan

The focus of this research was two-fold: (1) extend the reflectance-based crop coefficient approach to non-grain (potato and sugar beet), and vegetable crops (bean), and (2) develop vegetation index (VI)-yield statistical models for potato and sugar beet crops using high-resolution aerial multispectral imagery. Extensive crop biophysical sampling (leaf area index and aboveground dry biomass sampling) and canopy reflectance measurements formed the backbone of developing of canopy reflectance-based crop coefficients for bean, potato, and sugar beet crops in this study. Reflectance-based crop coefficient equations were developed for the study crops cultivated in Kimberly, Idaho, and subsequently used in water availability simulations in the plant root zone during 1998 and 1999 seasons. The simulated soil water profiles were compared with independent measurements of actual soil water profiles in the crop root zone in selected fields. It is concluded that the canopy reflectance-based crop coefficient technique can be successfully extended to non-grain crops as well. While the traditional basal crop coefficients generally expect uniform growth in a region the reflectance-based crop coefficients represent the actual crop growth pattern (in less than ideal water availability conditions) in individual fields. Literature on crop canopy interactions with sunlight states that there is a definite correspondence between leaf area index progression in the season and the final yield. In case of crops like potato and sugar beet, the yield is influenced not only on how early and how quickly the crop establishes its canopy but also on how long the plant stands on the ground in a healthy state. The integrated area under the crop growth curve has shown excellent correlations with hand-dug samples of potato and sugar beet crops in this research. Soil adjusted vegetation index-yield models were developed, and validated using multispectral aerial imagery. Estimated yield images were compared with the actual yields extracted from the ground. The remote sensing-derived yields compared well with the actual yields sampled on the ground. This research has highlighted the importance of the date of spectral emergence, the need to know the duration for which the crops stand on the ground, and the need to identify critical periods of time when multispectral coverages are essential for reliable tuber yield estimation.

Effect of Meloidogyne arenaria and Mulch Type on Okra in Microplot Experiments.

PubMed

Ritzinger, C H; McSorley, R; Gallaher, R N

1998-12-01

The effects of perennial peanut (Arachis glabrata) hay, an aged yard-waste compost (mainly woodchips), and a control treatment without amendment were determined on two population levels of root-knot (Melaidogyne arenaria) nematode over three consecutive years in field microplots. Okra (Hibiscus esculentus, susceptible to the root-knot nematode) and a rye (Secale cereale) cover crop (poor nematode host) were used in the summer and winter seasons, respectively. The organic amendment treatments affected plant growth parameters. In the first year, okra yields were greatest in peanut-amended plots. Yield differences with amendment treatment diminished in the second and third years. Okra plant height, total fruit weight, and fruit number were greater with the lower population level of the root-knot nematode. Residual levels of nutrients in soil were greater where root-knot nematode levels and damage were higher and plant growth was poor. Nutrient levels affected the growth of a subsequent rye cover crop.

Engineering salt-tolerant Brassica plants: characterization of yield and seed oil quality in transgenic plants with increased vacuolar sodium accumulation.

PubMed

Zhang, H X; Hodson, J N; Williams, J P; Blumwald, E

2001-10-23

Transgenic Brassica napus plants overexpressing AtNHX1, a vacuolar Na(+)/H(+) antiport from Arabidopsis thaliana, were able to grow, flower, and produce seeds in the presence of 200 mM sodium chloride. Although the transgenic plants grown in high salinity accumulated sodium up to 6% of their dry weight, growth of the these plants was only marginally affected by the high salt concentration. Moreover, seed yields and the seed oil quality were not affected by the high salinity of the soil. Our results demonstrate the potential use of these transgenic plants for agricultural use in saline soils. Our findings, showing that the modification of a single trait significantly improved the salinity tolerance of this crop plant, suggest that with a combination of breeding and transgenic plants it could be possible to produce salt-tolerant crops with far fewer target traits than had been anticipated.

Regional Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Use in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, K. F.; Wang, G.; You, L.

2014-12-01

Agriculture is a key element of the human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) that is influenced by climate and can potentially influence regional climate. Temperature and precipitation directly impact the crop yield (by controlling photosynthesis, respiration and other physiological processes) that then affects agricultural land use pattern. In feedback, the resulting changes in land use and land cover play an important role to determine the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. The assessment of future agricultural land use is, therefore, of great importance in climate change study. In this study, we develop a prototype land use projection model and, using this model, project the changes to land use pattern and future land cover map accounting for climate-induced yield changes for major crops in West Africa. Among the inputs to the land use projection model are crop yield changes simulated by the crop model DSSAT, driven with the climate forcing data from the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5, which features a projected decrease of future mean crop yield and increase of inter-annual variability. Another input to the land use projection model is the projected changes of food demand in the future. In a so-called "dumb-farmer scenario" without any adaptation, the combined effect of decrease in crop yield and increase in food demand will lead to a significant increase in agricultural land use in future years accompanied by a decrease in forest and grass area. Human adaptation through land use optimization in an effort to minimize agricultural expansion is found to have little impact on the overall areas of agricultural land use. While the choice of the General Circulation Model (GCM) to derive initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model can be a source of uncertainty in projecting the future LULCC, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes in land use pattern are robust.

Assessment of climate change impact on yield of major crops in the Banas River Basin, India.

PubMed

Dubey, Swatantra Kumar; Sharma, Devesh

2018-09-01

Crop growth models like AquaCrop are useful in understanding the impact of climate change on crop production considering the various projections from global circulation models and regional climate models. The present study aims to assess the climate change impact on yield of major crops in the Banas River Basin i.e., wheat, barley and maize. Banas basin is part of the semi-arid region of Rajasthan state in India. AquaCrop model is used to calculate the yield of all the three crops for a historical period of 30years (1981-2010) and then compared with observed yield data. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values are calculated to assess the model accuracy in prediction of yield. Further, the calibrated model is used to predict the possible impacts of climate change and CO 2 concentration on crop yield using CORDEX-SA climate projections of three driving climate models (CNRM-CM5, CCSM4 and MPI-ESM-LR) for two different scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the future period 2021-2050. RMSE values of simulated yield with respect to observed yield of wheat, barley and maize are 11.99, 16.15 and 19.13, respectively. It is predicted that crop yield of all three crops will increase under the climate change conditions for future period (2021-2050). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of estimation method for crop yield using MODIS satellite imagery data and process-based model for corn and soybean in US Corn-Belt region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; Kang, S.; Jang, K.; Ko, J.; Hong, S.

2012-12-01

Crop productivity is associated with the food security and hence, several models have been developed to estimate crop yield by combining remote sensing data with carbon cycle processes. In present study, we attempted to estimate crop GPP and NPP using algorithm based on the LUE model and a simplified respiration model. The state of Iowa and Illinois was chosen as the study site for estimating the crop yield for a period covering the 5 years (2006-2010), as it is the main Corn-Belt area in US. Present study focuses on developing crop-specific parameters for corn and soybean to estimate crop productivity and yield mapping using satellite remote sensing data. We utilized a 10 km spatial resolution daily meteorological data from WRF to provide cloudy-day meteorological variables but in clear-say days, MODIS-based meteorological data were utilized to estimate daily GPP, NPP, and biomass. County-level statistics on yield, area harvested, and productions were used to test model predicted crop yield. The estimated input meteorological variables from MODIS and WRF showed with good agreements with the ground observations from 6 Ameriflux tower sites in 2006. For examples, correlation coefficients ranged from 0.93 to 0.98 for Tmin and Tavg ; from 0.68 to 0.85 for daytime mean VPD; from 0.85 to 0.96 for daily shortwave radiation, respectively. We developed county-specific crop conversion coefficient, i.e. ratio of yield to biomass on 260 DOY and then, validated the estimated county-level crop yield with the statistical yield data. The estimated corn and soybean yields at the county level ranged from 671 gm-2 y-1 to 1393 gm-2 y-1 and from 213 gm-2 y-1 to 421 gm-2 y-1, respectively. The county-specific yield estimation mostly showed errors less than 10%. Furthermore, we estimated crop yields at the state level which were validated against the statistics data and showed errors less than 1%. Further analysis for crop conversion coefficient was conducted for 200 DOY and 280 DOY. For the case of 280 DOY, Crop yield estimation showed better accuracy for soybean at county level. Though the case of 200 DOY resulted in less accuracy (i.e. 20% mean bias), it provides a useful tool for early forecasting of crop yield. We improved the spatial accuracy of estimated crop yield at county level by developing county-specific crop conversion coefficient. Our results indicate that the aboveground crop biomass can be estimated successfully with the simple LUE and respiration models combined with MODIS data and then, county-specific conversion coefficient can be different with each other across different counties. Hence, applying region-specific conversion coefficient is necessary to estimate crop yield with better accuracy.

The Space-Time Variation of Global Crop Yields, Detecting Simultaneous Outliers and Identifying the Teleconnections with Climatic Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafi, E.; Devineni, N.; Pal, I.; Khanbilvardi, R.

2017-12-01

An understanding of the climate factors that influence the space-time variability of crop yields is important for food security purposes and can help us predict global food availability. In this study, we address how the crop yield trends of countries globally were related to each other during the last several decades and the main climatic variables that triggered high/low crop yields simultaneously across the world. Robust Principal Component Analysis (rPCA) is used to identify the primary modes of variation in wheat, maize, sorghum, rice, soybeans, and barley yields. Relations between these modes of variability and important climatic variables, especially anomalous sea surface temperature (SSTa), are examined from 1964 to 2010. rPCA is also used to identify simultaneous outliers in each year, i.e. systematic high/low crop yields across the globe. The results demonstrated spatiotemporal patterns of these crop yields and the climate-related events that caused them as well as the connection of outliers with weather extremes. We find that among climatic variables, SST has had the most impact on creating simultaneous crop yields variability and yield outliers in many countries. An understanding of this phenomenon can benefit global crop trade networks.

Evaluating high temporal and spatial resolution vegetation index for crop yield prediction

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Remote sensing data have been widely used in estimating crop yield. Remote sensing derived parameters such as Vegetation Index (VI) were used either directly in building empirical models or by assimilating with crop growth models to predict crop yield. The abilities of remote sensing VI in crop yiel...

Effects of different on-farm management on yield and water use efficiency of Potato crop cultivated in semiarid environments under subsurface drip irrigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghazouani, Hiba; Provenzano, Giuseppe; Rallo, Giovanni; Mguidiche, Amel; Douh, Boutheina; Boujelben, Abdelhamid

2016-04-01

In Tunisia the amount of water for irrigated agriculture is higher than about 80% of the total resource.The increasing population and the rising food demand, associated to the negative effects of climate change,make it crucial to adopt strategies aiming to improve water use efficiency (WUE). Moreover, the absence of an effective public policy for water management amplifies the imbalance between water supply and its demand. Despite improved irrigation technologies can enhance the efficiency of water distribution systems, to achieve environmental goals it is also necessaryto identify on-farm management strategies accounting for actual crop water requirement. The main objective of the paper was to assess the effects of different on-farm managementstrategies (irrigation scheduling and planting date) on yield and water use efficiency of Potato crop (Solanumtuberosum L.) irrigated with a subsurface drip system, under the semi-arid climate of central Tunisia. Experiments were carried out during three growing seasons (2012, 2014 and 2015) at the High Agronomic Institute of ChottMariem in Sousse, by considering different planting dates and irrigation depths, the latter scheduled according to the climate observed during the season. All the considered treatments received the same pesticide and fertilizer management. Experiments evidenced that the climatic variability characterizing the examined seasons (photoperiod, solar radiation and average temperature) affects considerably the crop phenological stages, and the late sowing shortens the crop cycle.It has also been demonstrated that Leaf Area Index (LAI) and crop yield resulted relatively higher for those treatments receiving larger amounts of seasonal water. Crop yield varied between 16.3 t/ha and 39.1 t/ha, with a trend linearly related to the ratio between the seasonal amount of water supplied (Irrigation, I and Precipitation, P) and the maximum crop evapotranspiration (ETm). The maximum crop yield was in particular obtained for a value of this ratio equal to 1.45. Moreover, when increasing the seasonal pluviometric deficit (P-ETm) and therefore the irrigation depth (I), standard deviations of crop yield tended to decrease, as a consequence ofthe more uniform soil water content in the root zone. In terms of agronomic water use efficiency (AWUE),differences among the investigated treatments varied in a quite narrow range,due to thecombined effects of seasonal precipitation and atmospheric water demand on irrigation depths and crop yield.On the other hand, when considering irrigation water use efficiency (IWUE), more relevant differences between treatments were observed,being the higher values of IWUEgenerally associated to the lower irrigation depths. However, to define the best irrigation management strategy it is necessary, from one side, to consider the availability of water and from the other, to perform aneconomic analysis accounting for the cost of water and the related benefits achievable by the farmer.

Towards the production of salt-tolerant crops.

PubMed

Barkla, B J; Vera-Estrella, R; Pantoja, O

1999-01-01

Crop production is affected by numerous environmental factors, with soil salinity and drought having the most detrimental effects. Attempts to improve yield under stress conditions by plant breeding have been unsuccessful, primarily due to the multigenic origin of the adaptive responses. The transfer of genes through genetic engineering of crop plants appears more feasible. Important adaptive mechanisms targeted for potential gene transfer would be the tonoplast Na+/H+ antiport, compatible solute synthesis and, regulation of water channel activity and expression, mechanisms involved in cellular osmoregulation. In this review we discuss recent advances in our understanding of these adaptive mechanisms.

Field-scale experiments reveal persistent yield gaps in low-input and organic cropping systems

PubMed Central

Kravchenko, Alexandra N.; Snapp, Sieglinde S.; Robertson, G. Philip

2017-01-01

Knowledge of production-system performance is largely based on observations at the experimental plot scale. Although yield gaps between plot-scale and field-scale research are widely acknowledged, their extent and persistence have not been experimentally examined in a systematic manner. At a site in southwest Michigan, we conducted a 6-y experiment to test the accuracy with which plot-scale crop-yield results can inform field-scale conclusions. We compared conventional versus alternative, that is, reduced-input and biologically based–organic, management practices for a corn–soybean–wheat rotation in a randomized complete block-design experiment, using 27 commercial-size agricultural fields. Nearby plot-scale experiments (0.02-ha to 1.0-ha plots) provided a comparison of plot versus field performance. We found that plot-scale yields well matched field-scale yields for conventional management but not for alternative systems. For all three crops, at the plot scale, reduced-input and conventional managements produced similar yields; at the field scale, reduced-input yields were lower than conventional. For soybeans at the plot scale, biological and conventional managements produced similar yields; at the field scale, biological yielded less than conventional. For corn, biological management produced lower yields than conventional in both plot- and field-scale experiments. Wheat yields appeared to be less affected by the experimental scale than corn and soybean. Conventional management was more resilient to field-scale challenges than alternative practices, which were more dependent on timely management interventions; in particular, mechanical weed control. Results underscore the need for much wider adoption of field-scale experimentation when assessing new technologies and production-system performance, especially as related to closing yield gaps in organic farming and in low-resourced systems typical of much of the developing world. PMID:28096409

Field-scale experiments reveal persistent yield gaps in low-input and organic cropping systems.

PubMed

Kravchenko, Alexandra N; Snapp, Sieglinde S; Robertson, G Philip

2017-01-31

Knowledge of production-system performance is largely based on observations at the experimental plot scale. Although yield gaps between plot-scale and field-scale research are widely acknowledged, their extent and persistence have not been experimentally examined in a systematic manner. At a site in southwest Michigan, we conducted a 6-y experiment to test the accuracy with which plot-scale crop-yield results can inform field-scale conclusions. We compared conventional versus alternative, that is, reduced-input and biologically based-organic, management practices for a corn-soybean-wheat rotation in a randomized complete block-design experiment, using 27 commercial-size agricultural fields. Nearby plot-scale experiments (0.02-ha to 1.0-ha plots) provided a comparison of plot versus field performance. We found that plot-scale yields well matched field-scale yields for conventional management but not for alternative systems. For all three crops, at the plot scale, reduced-input and conventional managements produced similar yields; at the field scale, reduced-input yields were lower than conventional. For soybeans at the plot scale, biological and conventional managements produced similar yields; at the field scale, biological yielded less than conventional. For corn, biological management produced lower yields than conventional in both plot- and field-scale experiments. Wheat yields appeared to be less affected by the experimental scale than corn and soybean. Conventional management was more resilient to field-scale challenges than alternative practices, which were more dependent on timely management interventions; in particular, mechanical weed control. Results underscore the need for much wider adoption of field-scale experimentation when assessing new technologies and production-system performance, especially as related to closing yield gaps in organic farming and in low-resourced systems typical of much of the developing world.

Crop Rotation and Races of Meloidogyne incognita in Cotton Root-knot Management

PubMed Central

Kirkpatrick, T. L.; Sasser, J. N.

1984-01-01

The influence o f various crop rotations and nematode inoculum levels on subsequent population densities of Meloidogyne incognita races 1 and 3 were studied in microplots. Ten different 3-year sequences o f cotton, corn, peanut, or soybean, all with cotton as the 3rd-year crop, were grown in microplots infested with each race. Cotton monoculture, two seasons o f corn, or cotton followed by corn resulted in high race 3 population densities and severe root galling on cotton the 3rd year. Peanut for 2 years preceding cotton most effectively decreased the race 3 population and root galls on cotton the 3rd year. Race 1 did not significantly influence cotton growth or yield at initial populations of up to 5,000 eggs/500 cm³ soil. At 5,000 eggs/500 cm³, cotton growth was suppressed by race 3 but yield was not affected. PMID:19294030

Progress and Challenges in Predicting Crop Responses to Atmospheric [CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kent, J.; Paustian, K.

2017-12-01

Increasing atmospheric [CO2] directly accelerates photosynthesis in C3 crops, and indirectly promotes yields by reducing stomatal conductance and associated water losses in C3 and C4 crops. Several decades of experiments have exposed crops to eCO2 in greenhouses and other enclosures and observed yield increases on the order of 33%. FACE systems were developed in the early 1990s to better replicate open-field growing conditions. Some authors contend that FACE results indicate lower crop yield responses than enclosure studies, while others maintain no significant difference or attribute differences to various methodological factors. The crop CO2 response processes in many crop models were developed using results from enclosure experiments. This work tested the ability of one such model, DayCent, to reproduce crop responses to CO2 enrichment from several FACE experiments. DayCent performed well at simulating yield and transpiration responses in C4 crops, but significantly overestimated yield responses in C3 crops. After adjustment of CO2-response parameters, DayCent was able to reproduce mean yield responses for specific crops. However, crop yield responses from FACE experiments vary widely across years and sites, and likely reflect complex interactions between conditions such as weather, soils, cultivars, and biotic stressors. Further experimental work is needed to identify the secondary variables that explain this variability so that models can more reliably forecast crop yields under climate change. Likewise, CO2 impacts on crop outcomes such as belowground biomass allocation and grain N content have implications for agricultural C fluxes and human nutrition, respectively, but are poorly understood and thus difficult to simulate with confidence.

Effects of geoengineering on crop yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pongratz, J.; Lobell, D. B.; Cao, L.; Caldeira, K.

2011-12-01

The potential of "solar radiation management" (SRM) to reduce future climate change and associated risks has been receiving significant attention in scientific and policy circles. SRM schemes aim to reduce global warming despite increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations by diminishing the amount of solar insolation absorbed by the Earth, for example, by injecting scattering aerosols into the atmosphere. Climate models predict that SRM could fully compensate warming at the global mean in a high-CO2 world. While reduction of global warming may offset a part of the predicted negative effects of future climate change on crop yields, SRM schemes are expected to alter regional climate and to have substantial effects on climate variables other than temperature, such as precipitation. It has therefore been warned that, overall, SRM may pose a risk to food security. Assessments of benefits and risks of geoengineering are imperative, yet such assessments are only beginning to emerge; in particular, effects on global food security have not previously been assessed. Here, for the first time, we combine climate model simulations with models of crop yield responses to climate to assess large-scale changes in yields and food production under SRM. In most crop-growing regions, we find that yield losses caused by climate changes are substantially reduced under SRM as compared with a non-geoengineered doubling of atmospheric CO2. Substantial yield losses with SRM are only found for rice in high latitudes, where the limits of low temperatures are no longer alleviated. At the same time, the beneficial effect of CO2-fertilization on plant productivity remains active. Overall therefore, SRM in our models causes global crop yields to increase. We estimate the direct effects of climate and CO2 changes on crop production, and do not quantify effects of market dynamics and management changes. We note, however, that an SRM deployment would be unlikely to maintain the economic status quo, as market shares of agricultural output may change with the different spatial pattern of climate change. More importantly, geoengineering by SRM does not address a range of other detrimental consequences of climate change, such as ocean acidification, which could also affect food security via effects on marine food webs. Finally, SRM poses substantial anticipated and unanticipated risks by interfering with complex, not fully understood systems. Therefore, despite potential positive effects of SRM on crop yields, the most certain way to reduce climate risks to global food security is to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.

Reduced Height (Rht) Alleles Affect Wheat Grain Quality

PubMed Central

Casebow, Richard; Hadley, Caroline; Uppal, Rajneet; Addisu, Molla; Loddo, Stefano; Kowalski, Ania; Griffiths, Simon; Gooding, Mike

2016-01-01

The effects of dwarfing alleles (reduced height, Rht) in near isogenic lines on wheat grain quality are characterised in field experiments and related to effects on crop height, grain yield and GA-sensitivity. Alleles included those that conferred GA-insensitivity (Rht-B1b, Rht-B1c, Rht-D1b, Rht-D1c) as well as those that retained GA-sensitivity (rht(tall), Rht8, Rht8 + Ppd-D1a, Rht12). Full characterisation was facilitated by including factors with which the effects of Rht alleles are known to interact for grain yield (i.e. system, [conventional or organic]; tillage intensity [plough-based, minimum or zero]; nitrogen fertilizer level [0–450 kg N/ha]; and genetic backgrounds varying in height [cvs Maris Huntsman, Maris Widgeon, and Mercia]. Allele effects on mean grain weight and grain specific weight were positively associated with final crop height: dwarfing reduced these quality criteria irrespective of crop management or GA-sensitivity. In all but two experiments the effects of dwarfing alleles on grain nitrogen and sulphur concentrations were closely and negatively related to effects on grain yield, e.g. a quadratic relationship between grain yield and crop height manipulated by the GA-insensitive alleles was mirrored by quadratic relationships for nitrogen and sulphur concentrations: the highest yields and most dilute concentrations occurred around 80cm. In one of the two exceptional experiments the GA-insensitive Rht-B1b and Rht-B1c significantly (P<0.05) reduced grain nitrogen concentration in the absence of an effect on yield, and in the remaining experiment the GA-sensitive Rht8 significantly reduced both grain yield and grain nitrogen concentration simultaneously. When Rht alleles diluted grain nitrogen concentration, N:S ratios and SDS-sedimentation volumes were often improved. Hagberg falling number (HFN) was negatively related to crop height but benefits from dwarfing were only seen for GA-insensitive alleles. For HFN, therefore, there was the strongest evidence for a direct pleiotropic effect of GA-insensitivity, rather than an effect consequential to yield and/or height. PMID:27196288

Reduced Height (Rht) Alleles Affect Wheat Grain Quality.

PubMed

Casebow, Richard; Hadley, Caroline; Uppal, Rajneet; Addisu, Molla; Loddo, Stefano; Kowalski, Ania; Griffiths, Simon; Gooding, Mike

2016-01-01

The effects of dwarfing alleles (reduced height, Rht) in near isogenic lines on wheat grain quality are characterised in field experiments and related to effects on crop height, grain yield and GA-sensitivity. Alleles included those that conferred GA-insensitivity (Rht-B1b, Rht-B1c, Rht-D1b, Rht-D1c) as well as those that retained GA-sensitivity (rht(tall), Rht8, Rht8 + Ppd-D1a, Rht12). Full characterisation was facilitated by including factors with which the effects of Rht alleles are known to interact for grain yield (i.e. system, [conventional or organic]; tillage intensity [plough-based, minimum or zero]; nitrogen fertilizer level [0-450 kg N/ha]; and genetic backgrounds varying in height [cvs Maris Huntsman, Maris Widgeon, and Mercia]. Allele effects on mean grain weight and grain specific weight were positively associated with final crop height: dwarfing reduced these quality criteria irrespective of crop management or GA-sensitivity. In all but two experiments the effects of dwarfing alleles on grain nitrogen and sulphur concentrations were closely and negatively related to effects on grain yield, e.g. a quadratic relationship between grain yield and crop height manipulated by the GA-insensitive alleles was mirrored by quadratic relationships for nitrogen and sulphur concentrations: the highest yields and most dilute concentrations occurred around 80cm. In one of the two exceptional experiments the GA-insensitive Rht-B1b and Rht-B1c significantly (P<0.05) reduced grain nitrogen concentration in the absence of an effect on yield, and in the remaining experiment the GA-sensitive Rht8 significantly reduced both grain yield and grain nitrogen concentration simultaneously. When Rht alleles diluted grain nitrogen concentration, N:S ratios and SDS-sedimentation volumes were often improved. Hagberg falling number (HFN) was negatively related to crop height but benefits from dwarfing were only seen for GA-insensitive alleles. For HFN, therefore, there was the strongest evidence for a direct pleiotropic effect of GA-insensitivity, rather than an effect consequential to yield and/or height.

Building a statistical emulator for prediction of crop yield response to climate change: a global gridded panel data set approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mistry, Malcolm; De Cian, Enrica; Wing, Ian Sue

2015-04-01

There is widespread concern that trends and variability in weather induced by climate change will detrimentally affect global agricultural productivity and food supplies. Reliable quantification of the risks of negative impacts at regional and global scales is a critical research need, which has so far been met by forcing state-of-the-art global gridded crop models with outputs of global climate model (GCM) simulations in exercises such as the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP)-Fastrack. Notwithstanding such progress, it remains challenging to use these simulation-based projections to assess agricultural risk because their gridded fields of crop yields are fundamentally denominated as discrete combinations of warming scenarios, GCMs and crop models, and not as model-specific or model-averaged yield response functions of meteorological shifts, which may have their own independent probability of occurrence. By contrast, the empirical climate economics literature has adeptly represented agricultural responses to meteorological variables as reduced-form statistical response surfaces which identify the crop productivity impacts of additional exposure to different intervals of temperature and precipitation [cf Schlenker and Roberts, 2009]. This raises several important questions: (1) what do the equivalent reduced-form statistical response surfaces look like for crop model outputs, (2) do they exhibit systematic variation over space (e.g., crop suitability zones) or across crop models with different characteristics, (3) how do they compare to estimates based on historical observations, and (4) what are the implications for the characterization of climate risks? We address these questions by estimating statistical yield response functions for four major crops (maize, rice, wheat and soybeans) over the historical period (1971-2004) as well as future climate change scenarios (2005-2099) using ISIMIP-Fastrack data for five GCMs and seven crop models under rain-fed and irrigated management regimes. Our approach, which is patterned after Lobell and Burke [2010], is a novel application of cross-section/time-series statistical techniques from the climate economics literature to large, high-dimension, multi-model datasets, and holds considerable promise as a diagnostic methodology to elucidate uncertainties in the processes simulated by crop models, and to support the development of climate impact intercomparison exercises.

Global growth and stability of agricultural yield decrease with pollinator dependence

PubMed Central

Garibaldi, Lucas A.; Aizen, Marcelo A.; Klein, Alexandra M.; Cunningham, Saul A.; Harder, Lawrence D.

2011-01-01

Human welfare depends on the amount and stability of agricultural production, as determined by crop yield and cultivated area. Yield increases asymptotically with the resources provided by farmers’ inputs and environmentally sensitive ecosystem services. Declining yield growth with increased inputs prompts conversion of more land to cultivation, but at the risk of eroding ecosystem services. To explore the interdependence of agricultural production and its stability on ecosystem services, we present and test a general graphical model, based on Jensen's inequality, of yield–resource relations and consider implications for land conversion. For the case of animal pollination as a resource influencing crop yield, this model predicts that incomplete and variable pollen delivery reduces yield mean and stability (inverse of variability) more for crops with greater dependence on pollinators. Data collected by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations during 1961–2008 support these predictions. Specifically, crops with greater pollinator dependence had lower mean and stability in relative yield and yield growth, despite global yield increases for most crops. Lower yield growth was compensated by increased land cultivation to enhance production of pollinator-dependent crops. Area stability also decreased with pollinator dependence, as it correlated positively with yield stability among crops. These results reveal that pollen limitation hinders yield growth of pollinator-dependent crops, decreasing temporal stability of global agricultural production, while promoting compensatory land conversion to agriculture. Although we examined crop pollination, our model applies to other ecosystem services for which the benefits to human welfare decelerate as the maximum is approached. PMID:21422295

Real-time monitoring of smallholder farmer responses to intra-seasonal climate variability in central Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krell, N.; Evans, T. P.; Estes, L. D.; Caylor, K. K.

2017-12-01

While international metrics of food security and water availability are generated as spatial averages at the regional to national levels, climate variability impacts are differentially felt at the household level. This project investigated scales of variability of climate impacts on smallholder farmers using social and environmental data in central Kenya. Using sub-daily real-time environmental measurements to monitor smallholder agriculture, we investigated how changes in seasonal precipitation affected food security around Laikipia county from September 2015 to present. We also conducted SMS-based surveys of over 700 farmers to understand farmers' decision-making within the growing season. Our results highlight field-scale heterogeneity in biophysical and social factors governing crop yields using locally sensed real-time environmental data and weekly farmer-reported information about planting, harvesting, irrigation, and crop yields. Our preliminary results show relationships between changes in seasonal precipitation, NDVI, and soil moisture related to crop yields and decision-making at several scales. These datasets present a unique opportunity to collect highly spatially and temporally resolved information from data-poor regions at the household level.

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; Monier, Erwan

2017-08-01

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climate change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields.

PubMed

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; Monier, Erwan

2017-08-01

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climate change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO 2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.

Assessing gaps in irrigated agricultural productivity through satellite earth observations-A case study of the Fergana Valley, Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löw, Fabian; Biradar, Chandrashekhar; Fliemann, Elisabeth; Lamers, John P. A.; Conrad, Christopher

2017-07-01

Improving crop area and/or crop yields in agricultural regions is one of the foremost scientific challenges for the next decades. This is especially true in irrigated areas because sustainable intensification of irrigated crop production is virtually the sole means to enhance food supply and contribute to meeting food demands of a growing population. Yet, irrigated crop production worldwide is suffering from soil degradation and salinity, reduced soil fertility, and water scarcity rendering the performance of irrigation schemes often below potential. On the other hand, the scope for improving irrigated agricultural productivity remains obscure also due to the lack of spatial data on agricultural production (e.g. crop acreage and yield). To fill this gap, satellite earth observations and a replicable methodology were used to estimate crop yields at the field level for the period 2010/2014 in the Fergana Valley, Central Asia, to understand the response of agricultural productivity to factors related to the irrigation and drainage infrastructure and environment. The results showed that cropping pattern, i.e. the presence or absence of multi-annual crop rotations, and spatial diversity of crops had the most persistent effects on crop yields across observation years suggesting the need for introducing sustainable cropping systems. On the other hand, areas with a lower crop diversity or abundance of crop rotation tended to have lower crop yields, with differences of partly more than one t/ha yield. It is argued that factors related to the infrastructure, for example, the distance of farms to the next settlement or the density of roads, had a persistent effect on crop yield dynamics over time. The improvement potential of cotton and wheat yields were estimated at 5%, compared to crop yields of farms in the direct vicinity of settlements or roads. In this study it is highlighted how remotely sensed estimates of crop production in combination with geospatial technologies provide a unique perspective that, when combined with field surveys, can support planners to identify management priorities for improving regional production and/or reducing environmental impacts.

Crop monitoring & yield forecasting system based on Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and process-based crop growth model: Development and validation in South and South East Asian Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setiyono, T. D.

2014-12-01

Accurate and timely information on rice crop growth and yield helps governments and other stakeholders adapting their economic policies and enables relief organizations to better anticipate and coordinate relief efforts in the wake of a natural catastrophe. Such delivery of rice growth and yield information is made possible by regular earth observation using space-born Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) technology combined with crop modeling approach to estimate yield. Radar-based remote sensing is capable of observing rice vegetation growth irrespective of cloud coverage, an important feature given that in incidences of flooding the sky is often cloud-covered. The system allows rapid damage assessment over the area of interest. Rice yield monitoring is based on a crop growth simulation and SAR-derived key information, particularly start of season and leaf growth rate. Results from pilot study sites in South and South East Asian countries suggest that incorporation of SAR data into crop model improves yield estimation for actual yields. Remote-sensing data assimilation into crop model effectively capture responses of rice crops to environmental conditions over large spatial coverage, which otherwise is practically impossible to achieve. Such improvement of actual yield estimates offers practical application such as in a crop insurance program. Process-based crop simulation model is used in the system to ensure climate information is adequately captured and to enable mid-season yield forecast.

Investment risk in bioenergy crops

DOE PAGES

Skevas, Theodoros; Swinton, Scott M.; Tanner, Sophia; ...

2015-11-18

Here, perennial, cellulosic bioenergy crops represent a risky investment. The potential for adoption of these crops depends not only on mean net returns, but also on the associated probability distributions and on the risk preferences of farmers. Using 6-year observed crop yield data from highly productive and marginally productive sites in the southern Great Lakes region and assuming risk neutrality, we calculate expected breakeven biomass yields and prices compared to corn ( Zea mays L.) as a benchmark. Next we develop Monte Carlo budget simulations based on stochastic crop prices and yields. The crop yield simulations decompose yield risk intomore » three components: crop establishment survival, time to maturity, and mature yield variability. Results reveal that corn with harvest of grain and 38% of stover (as cellulosic bioenergy feedstock) is both the most profitable and the least risky investment option. It dominates all perennial systems considered across a wide range of farmer risk preferences. Although not currently attractive for profit-oriented farmers who are risk neutral or risk averse, perennial bioenergy crops.« less

Investment risk in bioenergy crops

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Skevas, Theodoros; Swinton, Scott M.; Tanner, Sophia

Here, perennial, cellulosic bioenergy crops represent a risky investment. The potential for adoption of these crops depends not only on mean net returns, but also on the associated probability distributions and on the risk preferences of farmers. Using 6-year observed crop yield data from highly productive and marginally productive sites in the southern Great Lakes region and assuming risk neutrality, we calculate expected breakeven biomass yields and prices compared to corn ( Zea mays L.) as a benchmark. Next we develop Monte Carlo budget simulations based on stochastic crop prices and yields. The crop yield simulations decompose yield risk intomore » three components: crop establishment survival, time to maturity, and mature yield variability. Results reveal that corn with harvest of grain and 38% of stover (as cellulosic bioenergy feedstock) is both the most profitable and the least risky investment option. It dominates all perennial systems considered across a wide range of farmer risk preferences. Although not currently attractive for profit-oriented farmers who are risk neutral or risk averse, perennial bioenergy crops.« less

Parsing multiple processes of high temperature impacts on corn/soybean yield using a newly developed CLM-APSIM modeling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, B.; Guan, K.; Chen, M.

2016-12-01

Future agricultural production faces a grand challenge of higher temperature under climate change. There are multiple physiological or metabolic processes of how high temperature affects crop yield. Specifically, we consider the following major processes: (1) direct temperature effects on photosynthesis and respiration; (2) speed-up growth rate and the shortening of growing season; (3) heat stress during reproductive stage (flowering and grain-filling); (4) high-temperature induced increase of atmospheric water demands. In this work, we use a newly developed modeling framework (CLM-APSIM) to simulate the corn and soybean growth and explicitly parse the above four processes. By combining the strength of CLM in modeling surface biophysical (e.g., hydrology and energy balance) and biogeochemical (e.g., photosynthesis and carbon-nitrogen interactions), as well as that of APSIM in modeling crop phenology and reproductive stress, the newly developed CLM-APSIM modeling framework enables us to diagnose the impacts of high temperature stress through different processes at various crop phenology stages. Ground measurements from the advanced SoyFACE facility at University of Illinois is used here to calibrate, validate, and improve the CLM-APSIM modeling framework at the site level. We finally use the CLM-APSIM modeling framework to project crop yield for the whole US Corn Belt under different climate scenarios.

Tradeoffs between vigor and yield for crops grown under different management systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simic Milas, Anita; Keller Vincent, Robert; Romanko, Matthew; Feitl, Melina; Rupasinghe, Prabha

2016-04-01

Remote sensing can provide an effective means for rapid and non-destructive monitoring of crop status and biochemistry. Monitoring pattern of traditional vigor algorithms generated from Landsat 8 OLI satellite data represents a robust method that can be widely used to differentiate the status of crops, as well as to monitor nutrient uptake functionality of differently treated seeds grown under different managements. This study considers 24 factorial parcels of winter wheat in 2013, corn in 2014, and soybeans in 2015, grown under four different types of agricultural management. The parcels are located at the Kellogg Biological Station, Long-Term Ecological Research site in the State of Michigan USA. At maturity, the organic crops exhibit significantly higher vigor and significantly lower yield than conventionally managed crops under different treatments. While organic crops invest in their metabolism at the expense of their yield, the conventional crops manage to increase their yield at the expense of their vigor. Landsat 8 OLI is capable of 1) differentiating the biochemical status of crops under different treatments at maturity, and 2) monitoring the tradeoff between crop yield and vigor that can be controlled by the seed treatments and proper conventional applications, with the ultimate goal of increasing food yield and food availability, and 3) distinguishing between organic and conventionally treated crops. Timing, quantity and types of herbicide applications have a great impact on early and pre-harvest vigor, maturity and yield of conventionally treated crops. Satellite monitoring using Landsat 8 is an optimal tool for coordinating agricultural applications, soil practices and genetic coding of the crop to produce higher yield as well as have early crop maturity, desirable in northern climates.

Extractable pool of biochar controls on crop productivity rather than greenhouse gas emission from a rice paddy under rice-wheat rotation.

PubMed

Korai, Punhoon Khan; Xia, Xin; Liu, Xiaoyu; Bian, Rongjun; Omondi, Morris Oduor; Nahayo, Alphonse; Pan, Genxing

2018-01-16

The role of extractable pool of biochar in crop productivity and soil greenhouse gas (GHGs) emission is not yet clear. In this study, two biochars with and without extraction was added to a paddy before rice transplantation at 20 t·ha -1 . Crop yield, plant traits and greenhouse gas emission monitored throughout a rice-wheat rotation. Between the biochar treatments, changes in bulk density and microbial biomass carbon were insignificant. However, the increase in organic carbon was similar between maize and wheat biochars while higher under bulk wheat biochar than extracted one. The increase in available P and K was higher under wheat than maize biochar regardless of extraction. Moreover, the increase in plant traits and grain yield, in rice season only, was higher under bulk than extracted biochars. Yet, there was no difference in changes in GHGs emission between bulk and extracted biochars regardless of feedstock. Nevertheless, increased methane emission for rice season was lower under extracted biochars than bulk ones. Overall, crop productivity rather than GHGs emission was affected by treatment of extraction of biochars. Thus, use of unextracted biochar is recommended for improving soil crop productivity in the paddy soils.

Benchmark study on glyphosate-resistant crop systems in the United States. Economics of herbicide resistance management practices in a 5 year field-scale study.

PubMed

Edwards, C Blake; Jordan, David L; Owen, Michael Dk; Dixon, Philip M; Young, Bryan G; Wilson, Robert G; Weller, Steven C; Shaw, David R

2014-12-01

Since the introduction of glyphosate-resistant (GR) crops, growers have often relied on glyphosate-only weed control programs. As a result, multiple weeds have evolved resistance to glyphosate. A 5 year study including 156 growers from Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Nebraska, North Carolina and Mississippi in the United States was conducted to compare crop yields and net returns between grower standard weed management programs (SPs) and programs containing best management practices (BMPs) recommended by university weed scientists. The BMPs were designed to prevent or mitigate/manage evolved herbicide resistance. Weed management costs were greater for the BMP approach in most situations, but crop yields often increased sufficiently for net returns similar to those of the less expensive SPs. This response was similar across all years, geographical regions, states, crops and tillage systems. Herbicide use strategies that include a diversity of herbicide mechanisms of action will increase the long-term sustainability of glyphosate-based weed management strategies. Growers can adopt herbicide resistance BMPs with confidence that net returns will not be negatively affected in the short term and contribute to resistance management in the long term. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

Cost-benefit trade-offs of bird activity in apple orchards

PubMed Central

Saunders, Manu E.; Luck, Gary W.

2016-01-01

Birds active in apple orchards in south–eastern Australia can contribute positively (e.g., control crop pests) or negatively (e.g., crop damage) to crop yields. Our study is the first to identify net outcomes of these activities, using six apple orchards, varying in management intensity, in south–eastern Australia as a study system. We also conducted a predation experiment using real and artificial codling moth (Cydia pomonella) larvae (a major pest in apple crops). We found that: (1) excluding birds from branches of apple trees resulted in an average of 12.8% more apples damaged by insects; (2) bird damage to apples was low (1.9% of apples); and (3) when trading off the potential benefits (biological control) with costs (bird damage to apples), birds provided an overall net benefit to orchard growers. We found that predation of real codling moth larvae was higher than for plasticine larvae, suggesting that plasticine prey models are not useful for inferring actual predation levels. Our study shows how complex ecological interactions between birds and invertebrates affect crop yield in apples, and provides practical strategies for improving the sustainability of orchard systems. PMID:27413639

Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Deryng, Delphine; Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Saeed, Fahad; Folberth, Christian; Liu, Wenfeng; Wang, Xuhui; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Thiery, Wim; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Rogelj, Joeri

2018-06-01

Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been an increasing interest in quantifying impacts at discrete levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase such as 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural productivity have direct and immediate relevance for human societies. Future crop yields will be affected by anthropogenic climate change as well as direct effects of emissions such as CO2 fertilization. At the same time, the climate sensitivity to future emissions is uncertain. Here we investigate the sensitivity of future crop yield projections with a set of global gridded crop models for four major staple crops at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming above pre-industrial levels, as well as at different CO2 levels determined by similar probabilities to lead to 1.5 °C and 2 °C, using climate forcing data from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts project. For the same CO2 forcing, we find consistent negative effects of half a degree warming on productivity in most world regions. Increasing CO2 concentrations consistent with these warming levels have potentially stronger but highly uncertain effects than 0.5 °C warming increments. Half a degree warming will also lead to more extreme low yields, in particular over tropical regions. Our results indicate that GMT change alone is insufficient to determine future impacts on crop productivity.

[Fungal population structure and its biological effect in rhizosphere soil of continuously cropped potato].

PubMed

Meng, Pin-Pin; Liu, Xing; Qiu, Hui-Zhen; Zhang, Wen-Ming; Zhang, Chun-Hong; Wang, Di; Zhang, Jun-Lian; Shen, Qi-Rong

2012-11-01

Continuous cropping obstacle is one of the main restriction factors in potato industry. In order to explore the mechanisms of potato's continuous cropping obstacle and to reduce the impact on potato's tuber yield, a field experiment combined with PCR-DGGE molecular fingerprinting was conducted to investigate the fungal population structure and its biological effect in rhizosphere soil of continuously cropped potato. With the increasing year of potato' s continuous cropping, the numbers of visible bands in rhizosphere fungal DGGE profiles increased obviously. As compared with that of CK (rotation cropping), the operational taxonomic unit (OTU) in treatments of one to five years continuous cropping was increased by 38.5%, 38.5%, 30.8%, 46.2%, and 76.9% respectively, indicating that potato's continuous cropping caused an obvious increase in the individual numbers of dominant fungal populations in rhizosphere soil. Also with the increasing year of potato's continuous cropping, the similarity of the fungal population structure among the treatments had a gradual decrease. The sequencing of the fungal DGGE bands showed that with the increasing year of continuous cropping, the numbers of the potato's rhizosphere soil-borne pathogens Fusarium oxysporum and F. solani increased obviously, while the number of Chaetomium globosum, as a biocontrol species, had a marked decrease in the fifth year of continuous cropping. It was suggested that potato' s continuous cropping caused the pathogen fungal populations become the dominant microbial populations in rhizosphere soil, and the rhizosphere micro-ecological environment deteriorated, which in turn affected the root system, making the root vigor and its absorption area reduced, and ultimately, the tuber yield decreased markedly.

Decoupling the deep: crop rotations, fertilization and soil physico-chemical properties down the profile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobley, Eleanor; Honermeier, Bernd; Don, Axel; Amelung, Wulf; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid

2017-04-01

Crop fertilization provides vital plant nutrients (e.g. NPK) to ensure yield security but is also associated with negative environmental impacts. In particular, inorganic, mineral nitrogen (Nmin) fertilization leads to emissions during its energy intensive production as well as Nmin leaching to receiving waters. Incorporating legumes into crop rotations can provide organic N to the soil and subsequent crops, reducing the need for mineral N fertilizer and its negative environmental impacts. An added bonus is the potential to enhance soil organic carbon stocks, thereby reducing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. In this study we assessed the effects of legumes in rotation and fertilization regimes on the depth distribution - down to 1 m - of total soil nitrogen (Ntot), soil organic carbon (SOC) as well as isotopic composition (δ13C, δ15N), electrical conductivity and bulk density as well as agricultural yields at a long-term field experiment in Gießen, Germany. Fertilization had significant but small impacts on the soil chemical environment, most particularly the salt content of the soil, with PK fertilization increasing electrical conductivity throughout the soil profile. Similarly, fertilization resulted in a small reduction of soil pH throughout the soil profile. N fertilization, in particular, significantly increased yields, whereas PK fertilizer had only marginal yield effects, indicating that these systems are N limited. This N limitation was confirmed by significant yield benefits with leguminous crops in rotation, even in combination with mineral N fertilizer. The soil was physically and chemically influenced by the choice of crop rotation. Adding clover as a green mulch crop once every 4 years resulted in an enrichment of total N and SOC at the surface compared with fava beans and maize, but only in combination with PK fertilization. In contrast, fava beans and to a lesser extent maize in rotation lowered bulk densities in the subsoil compared with clover. This resulted in a reduction of N density at depth, which was not mirrored in C densities, indicating that fava beans decouple C and N cycles in the deep soil profile. We then tested whether these effects are a result of plant (i.e. enhanced rooting depth associated with lowered subsoil bulk density) or microbial (i.e. N-cycling and denitrification processes) activities, by investigating the isotopic signatures of C and N down the profile. Our results indicate that the selection of crop rotation influences soil C and N cycling and depth distribution. Although mineral N fertilizer has significant benefits for yield, the choice of crop rotation has a greater influence on soil C and N cycling and specifically the addition of leguminous plants into rotation can provide additional yield benefits and stability. Incorporating legumes into crop rotations affects soil physical and chemical properties and decouples C and N cycles in the deep soil profile, indicating different nutrient and water cycling processes in the deep soil profile.

Diverse rotations and poultry litter improves soybean yield

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Continuous cropping systems without rotations or cover crops are perceived as unsustainable for long-term yield and soil health. Continuous systems, defined as continually producing a crop on the same parcel of land for more than three years, is thought to reduce yields. Given that crop rotations a...

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

DOE PAGES

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; ...

2017-06-27

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climatemore » change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO 2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.« less

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climatemore » change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO 2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.« less

Root-knot nematode management in double-cropped plasticulture vegetables.

PubMed

Desaeger, J A; Csinos, A S

2006-03-01

Combination treatments of chisel-injected fumigants (methyl bromide, 1,3-D, metam sodium, and chloropicrin) on a first crop, followed by drip-applied fumigants (metam sodium and 1,3-D +/- chloropicrin) on a second crop, with and without oxamyl drip applications were evaluated for control of Meloidogyne incognita in three different tests (2002 to 2004) in Tifton, GA. First crops were eggplant or tomato, and second crops were cantaloupe, squash, or jalapeno pepper. Double-cropped vegetables suffered much greater root-knot nematode (RKN) pressure than first crops, and almost-total yield loss occurred when second crops received no nematicide treatment. On a first crop of eggplant, all fumigants provided good nematode control and average yield increases of 10% to 15 %. On second crops, higher application rates and fumigant combinations (metam sodium and 1,3-D +/- chloropicrin) improved RKN control and increased yields on average by 20% to 35 % compared to the nonfumigated control. Oxamyl increased yields of the first crop in 2003 on average by 10% to 15% but had no effect in 2004 when RKN failed to establish itself. On double-cropped squash in 2003, oxamyl following fumigation provided significant additional reduction in nematode infection and increased squash yields on average by 30% to 75%.

Linking Field and Satellite Observations to Reveal Differences in Single vs. Double-Cropped Soybean Yields in Central Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeffries, G. R.; Cohn, A.

2016-12-01

Soy-corn double cropping (DC) has been widely adopted in Central Brazil alongside single cropped (SC) soybean production. DC involves different cropping calendars, soy varieties, and may be associated with different crop yield patterns and volatility than SC. Study of the performance of the region's agriculture in a changing climate depends on tracking differences in the productivity of SC vs. DC, but has been limited by crop yield data that conflate the two systems. We predicted SC and DC yields across Central Brazil, drawing on field observations and remotely sensed data. We first modeled field yield estimates as a function of remotely sensed DC status and vegetation index (VI) metrics, and other management and biophysical factors. We then used the statistical model estimated to predict SC and DC soybean yields at each 500 m2 grid cell of Central Brazil for harvest years 2001 - 2015. The yield estimation model was constructed using 1) a repeated cross-sectional survey of soybean yields and management factors for years 2007-2015, 2) a custom agricultural land cover classification dataset which assimilates earlier datasets for the region, and 3) 500m 8-day MODIS image composites used to calculate the wide dynamic range vegetation index (WDRVI) and derivative metrics such as area under the curve for WDRVI values in critical crop development periods. A statistical yield estimation model which primarily entails WDRVI metrics, DC status, and spatial fixed effects was developed on a subset of the yield dataset. Model validation was conducted by predicting previously withheld yield records, and then assessing error and goodness-of-fit for predicted values with metrics including root mean squared error (RMSE), mean squared error (MSE), and R2. We found a statistical yield estimation model which incorporates WDRVI and DC status to be way to estimate crop yields over the region. Statistical properties of the resulting gridded yield dataset may be valuable for understanding linkages between crop yields, farm management factors, and climate.

Oxygation enhances growth, gas exchange and salt tolerance of vegetable soybean and cotton in a saline vertisol.

PubMed

Bhattarai, Surya P; Midmore, David J

2009-07-01

Impacts of salinity become severe when the soil is deficient in oxygen. Oxygation (using aerated water for subsurface drip irrigation of crop) could minimize the impact of salinity on plants under oxygen-limiting soil environments. Pot experiments were conducted to evaluate the effects of oxygation (12% air volume/volume of water) on vegetable soybean (moderately salt tolerant) and cotton (salt tolerant) in a salinized vertisol at 2, 8, 14, 20 dS/m EC(e). In vegetable soybean, oxygation increased above ground biomass yield and water use efficiency (WUE) by 13% and 22%, respectively, compared with the control. Higher yield with oxygation was accompanied by greater plant height and stem diameter and reduced specific leaf area and leaf Na+ and Cl- concentrations. In cotton, oxygation increased lint yield and WUE by 18% and 16%, respectively, compared with the control, and was accompanied by greater canopy light interception, plant height and stem diameter. Oxygation also led to a greater rate of photosynthesis, higher relative water content in the leaf, reduced crop water stress index and lower leaf water potential. It did not, however, affect leaf Na+ or Cl- concentration. Oxygation invariably increased, whereas salinity reduced the K+ : Na+ ratio in the leaves of both species. Oxygation improved yield and WUE performance of salt tolerant and moderately tolerant crops under saline soil environments, and this may have a significant impact for irrigated agriculture where saline soils pose constraints to crop production.

Simulating the effects of climate and agricultural management practices on global crop yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deryng, D.; Sacks, W. J.; Barford, C. C.; Ramankutty, N.

2011-06-01

Climate change is expected to significantly impact global food production, and it is important to understand the potential geographic distribution of yield losses and the means to alleviate them. This study presents a new global crop model, PEGASUS 1.0 (Predicting Ecosystem Goods And Services Using Scenarios) that integrates, in addition to climate, the effect of planting dates and cultivar choices, irrigation, and fertilizer application on crop yield for maize, soybean, and spring wheat. PEGASUS combines carbon dynamics for crops with a surface energy and soil water balance model. It also benefits from the recent development of a suite of global data sets and analyses that serve as model inputs or as calibration data. These include data on crop planting and harvesting dates, crop-specific irrigated areas, a global analysis of yield gaps, and harvested area and yield of major crops. Model results for present-day climate and farm management compare reasonably well with global data. Simulated planting and harvesting dates are within the range of crop calendar observations in more than 75% of the total crop-harvested areas. Correlation of simulated and observed crop yields indicates a weighted coefficient of determination, with the weighting based on crop-harvested area, of 0.81 for maize, 0.66 for soybean, and 0.45 for spring wheat. We found that changes in temperature and precipitation as predicted by global climate models for the 2050s lead to a global yield reduction if planting and harvesting dates remain unchanged. However, adapting planting dates and cultivar choices increases yield in temperate regions and avoids 7-18% of global losses.

Interaction complexity matters: disentangling services and disservices of ant communities driving yield in tropical agroecosystems

PubMed Central

Wielgoss, Arno; Tscharntke, Teja; Rumede, Alfianus; Fiala, Brigitte; Seidel, Hannes; Shahabuddin, Saleh; Clough, Yann

2014-01-01

Owing to complex direct and indirect effects, impacts of higher trophic levels on plants is poorly understood. In tropical agroecosystems, ants interact with crop mutualists and antagonists, but little is known about how this integrates into the final ecosystem service, crop yield. We combined ant exclusion and introduction of invasive and native-dominant species in cacao agroecosystems to test whether (i) ant exclusion reduces yield, (ii) dominant species maximize certain intermediate ecosystem services (e.g. control of specific pests) rather than yield, which depends on several, cascading intermediate services and (iii) even, species-rich ant communities result in highest yields. Ants provided services, including reduced leaf herbivory and fruit pest damage and indirect pollination facilitation, but also disservices, such as increased mealybug density, phytopathogen dissemination and indirect pest damage enhancement. Yields were highest with unmanipulated, species-rich, even communities, whereas ant exclusion decreased yield by 27%. Introduction of an invasive-dominant ant decreased species density and evenness and resulted in 34% lower yields, whereas introduction of a non-invasive-dominant species resulted in similar species density and yields as in the unmanipulated control. Species traits and ant community structure affect services and disservices for agriculture in surprisingly complex ways, with species-rich and even communities promoting highest yield. PMID:24307667

Estimating the Impact and Spillover Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yield in Northern Ghana.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botchway, E.

2016-12-01

In tropical regions of the world human-induced climate change is likely to impact negatively on crop yields. To investigate the impact of climate change and its spillover effect on mean and variance of crop yields in northern Ghana, the Just and Pope stochastic production function and the Spatial Durbin model were adopted. Surprisingly, the results suggest that both precipitation and average temperature have positive effects on mean crop yield during the wet season. Wet season average temperature has a significant spillover effect in the region, whereas precipitation during the wet season has only one significant spillover effect on maize yield. Wet season precipitation does not have a strong significant effect on crop yield despite the rainfed nature of agriculture in the region. Thus, even if there are losers and winners as a result of future climate change at the regional level, future crop yield would largely depend on future technological development in agriculture, which may improve yields over time despite the changing climate. We argue, therefore, that technical improvement in farm management such as improved seeds and fertilizers, conservation tillage and better pest control, may have a more significant role in increasing observed crop productivity levels over time. So investigating the relative importance of non-climatic factors on crop yield may shed more light on where appropriate interventions can help in improving crop yields. Climate change, also, needs to be urgently assessed at the level of the household, so that poor and vulnerable people dependent on agriculture can be appropriately targeted in research and development activities whose object is poverty alleviation.

Impacts on Global Agriculture of Stratospheric Sulfate Injection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robock, A.; Xia, L.

2014-12-01

Impacts on global food supply are one of the most important concerns in the discussion of stratospheric sulfate geoengineering. Stratospheric sulfate injection could reduce surface temperature, precipitation, and insolation, which could affect agricultural production. We use output from climate model simulations using the two most "realistic" scenarios from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, G3 and G4. G3 posits balancing the increasing radiative forcing from the RCP4.5 business-as-usual scenario with stratospheric sulfate aerosols from 2020 through 2070. The G4 scenario also uses RCP4.5, but models simulate the stratospheric injection of 5 Tg SO2 per year from 2020 to 2070. In total, there are three modeling groups which have completed G3 and four for G4. We use two crop models, the global gridded Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (gDSSAT) crop model and the crop model in the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM-crop), to predict global maize yield changes. Without changing agricultural technology, we find that compared to the reference run forced by the RCP4.5 scenario, maize yields could increase in both G3 and G4 due to both the cooling effect of stratospheric sulfate injection and the CO2 fertilization effect, with the cooling effect contributing more to the increased productivity. However, the maize yield changes are not much larger than natural variability under G3, since the temperature reduction is smaller in G3 than in G4. Both crop models show similar results.

A regionally-adapted implementation of conservation agriculture delivers rapid improvements to soil properties associated with crop yield stability.

PubMed

Williams, Alwyn; Jordan, Nicholas R; Smith, Richard G; Hunter, Mitchell C; Kammerer, Melanie; Kane, Daniel A; Koide, Roger T; Davis, Adam S

2018-05-31

Climate models predict increasing weather variability, with negative consequences for crop production. Conservation agriculture (CA) may enhance climate resilience by generating certain soil improvements. However, the rate at which these improvements accrue is unclear, and some evidence suggests CA can lower yields relative to conventional systems unless all three CA elements are implemented: reduced tillage, sustained soil cover, and crop rotational diversity. These cost-benefit issues are important considerations for potential adopters of CA. Given that CA can be implemented across a wide variety of regions and cropping systems, more detailed and mechanistic understanding is required on whether and how regionally-adapted CA can improve soil properties while minimizing potential negative crop yield impacts. Across four US states, we assessed short-term impacts of regionally-adapted CA systems on soil properties and explored linkages with maize and soybean yield stability. Structural equation modeling revealed increases in soil organic matter generated by cover cropping increased soil cation exchange capacity, which improved soybean yield stability. Cover cropping also enhanced maize minimum yield potential. Our results demonstrate individual CA elements can deliver rapid improvements in soil properties associated with crop yield stability, suggesting that regionally-adapted CA may play an important role in developing high-yielding, climate-resilient agricultural systems.

Integrated crop management practices for maximizing grain yield of double-season rice crop.

PubMed

Wang, Depeng; Huang, Jianliang; Nie, Lixiao; Wang, Fei; Ling, Xiaoxia; Cui, Kehui; Li, Yong; Peng, Shaobing

2017-01-12

Information on maximum grain yield and its attributes are limited for double-season rice crop grown under the subtropical environment. This study was conducted to examine key characteristics associated with high yielding double-season rice crop through a comparison between an integrated crop management (ICM) and farmers' practice (FP). Field experiments were conducted in the early and late seasons in the subtropical environment of Wuxue County, Hubei Province, China in 2013 and 2014. On average, grain yield in ICM was 13.5% higher than that in FP. A maximum grain yield of 9.40 and 10.53 t ha -1 was achieved under ICM in the early- and late-season rice, respectively. Yield improvement of double-season rice with ICM was achieved with the combined effects of increased plant density and optimized nutrient management. Yield gain of ICM resulted from a combination of increases in sink size due to more panicle number per unit area and biomass production, further supported by the increased leaf area index, leaf area duration, radiation use efficiency, crop growth rate, and total nitrogen uptake compared with FP. Further enhancement in the yield potential of double-season rice should focus on increasing crop growth rate and biomass production through improved and integrated crop management practices.

Do volatiles produced by nectar-dwelling microbes affect honey bee preferences?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The microbiome of plants mediates many interactions in natural and managed systems. Among these, plant-pollinator interactions are important for ensuring high crop yields, pollinator health and successful plant reproduction. Despite initial work demonstrating effects of floral microbes on pollinatio...

Effects of agricultural land-management practices on water quality in northeastern Guilford County, North Carolina, 1985-90

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harned, Douglas A.

1995-01-01

The effects of selected agricultural land-management practices on water quality were assessed in a comparative study of four small basins in the Piedmont province of North Carolina. Agricultural practices, such as tillage and applications of fertilizer and pesticides, are major sources of sediment, nutrients, and pesticides in surface water, and of nutrients and pesticides in ground water. The four study basins included two adjacent row-crop fields, a mixed land-use basin, and a forested basin. One of the row-crop fields (7.4 acres) was farmed by using conservation land-management (CLM) practices, which included strip cropping, contour plowing, field borders, and grassed waterways. The other row-crop field (4.8 acres) was farmed by using standard land-management (SLM) practices, which included continuous cropping, straight-row plowing without regard to land topography, and poorly maintained waterways. The mixed land-use basin (665 acres) was monitored to compare water quality in surface water as SLM practices were converted to CLM practices during the project. The forested basin (44 acres) provided background surface-water hydrologic and chemical-quality conditions. Surface-water flow was reduced by 18 percent by CLM practices compared to surface-water flow from the SLM practices basin. The thickness of the unsaturated zone in the row-crop basins ranged from a few feet to 25 feet. Areas with thick unsaturated zones have a greater capacity to intercept and store nutrients and pesticides than do areas with thinner zones. Sediment concentrations and yields for the SLM practices basin were considerably higher than those for the other basins. The median sediment concentration in surface water for the SLM basin was 3.4 times that of the CLM basin, 8.2 times that of the mixed land-use basin, and 38.4 times that of the forested basin. The total sediment yield for the SLM basin was 2.3 times that observed for the CLM basin, 14.1 times that observed for the mixed land-use basin, and 19.5 times the yield observed for the forested basin. Nutrient concentrations in surface water from the row-crop and mixed land-use basins were higher than those measured in the forested basin and in precipitation collected near the row-crop basins. The SLM basin generally had the highest concentrations of total nitrogen, nitrite plus nitrate, total phosphorus (equivalent to the mixed land-use basin), and potassium. Nutrient concentrations in soil water and ground water were less than concentrations in surface water for the row-crop basins. Nutrient concentrations generally were at least slightly below the root zone (3-foot depth) and in ground water. Differences in nutrient yields among basins had patterns similar to those observed for nutrient concentrations. The total nitrogen yield for the SLM basin was 1.2 times the yield for the CLM basin, 1.9 times the yield for the mixed land-use basin, and 4.2 times the yield for the forested basin. The total phosphorus yield for the SLM basin was 1.7 times the yield for the CLM basin, 3.3 times the yield for the mixed land-use basin, and 7.8 times the yield for the forested basin. No significant differences in pesticide concentrations in surface water were identified between those measured in the SLM basin and those measured in the CLM basin. Significantly higher pesticide concentrations were observed at the row-crop basins compared with those observed at the mixed land-use basin probably because sampling sites for the row-crop basins were closer to the pesticide sources. No pesticides were detected in the forested basin. Comparisons of pesticide concentrations in soil from the two row-crop basins indicated some differences. Concentrations of the soil pesticides isopropalin and flumetralin were higher in the SLM basin than in the CLM basin. The surface-water quality of the mixed land-use basin generally was less affected by agricultural nonpoint sources than that of the smaller row-crop b

Biomass production of 12 winter cereal cover crop cultivars and their effect on subsequent no-till corn yield

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cover crops can improve the sustainability and resilience of corn and soybean production systems. However, there have been isolated reports of corn yield reductions following winter rye cover crops. Although there are many possible causes of corn yield reductions following winter cereal cover crops,...

Long-term Tillage and Cropping Sequence Effect on Dryland Crop Yields and Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Improved management practices are needed to increase dryland crop yields and soil organic matter compared with conventional farming practices in the northern Great Plains. We evaluated the 21-yr effect of tillage and cropping sequence on dryland grain and biomass (stems + leaves) yields and N uptake...

Development of a European Ensemble System for Seasonal Prediction: Application to crop yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terres, J. M.; Cantelaube, P.

2003-04-01

Western European agriculture is highly intensive and the weather is the main source of uncertainty for crop yield assessment and for crop management. In the current system, at the time when a crop yield forecast is issued, the weather conditions leading up to harvest time are unknown and are therefore a major source of uncertainty. The use of seasonal weather forecast would bring additional information for the remaining crop season and has valuable benefit for improving the management of agricultural markets and environmentally sustainable farm practices. An innovative method for supplying seasonal forecast information to crop simulation models has been developed in the frame of the EU funded research project DEMETER. It consists in running a crop model on each individual member of the seasonal hindcasts to derive a probability distribution of crop yield. Preliminary results of cumulative probability function of wheat yield provides information on both the yield anomaly and the reliability of the forecast. Based on the spread of the probability distribution, the end-user can directly quantify the benefits and risks of taking weather-sensitive decisions.

Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yator, J. J.

2016-12-01

This study sought to address the existing gap on the impact of climate change on food security in support of policy measures to avert famine catastrophes. Fixed and random effects regressions for crop food security were estimated. The study simulated the expected impact of future climate change on food insecurity based on the Representative Concentration Pathways scenario (RCPs). The study makes use of county-level yields estimates (beans, maize, millet and sorghum) and daily climate data (1971 to 2010). Climate variability affects food security irrespective of how food security is defined. Rainfall during October-November-December (OND), as well as during March-April-May (MAM) exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship with most food crops; the effects are most pronounced for maize and sorghum. Beans and Millet are found to be largely unresponsive to climate variability and also to time-invariant factors. OND rains and fall and summer temperature exhibit a U-shaped relationship with yields for most crops, while MAM rains temperature exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship. However, winter temperatures exhibit a hill-shaped relationship with most crops. Project future climate change scenarios on crop productivity show that climate change will adversely affect food security, with up to 69% decline in yields by the year 2100. Climate variables have a non-linear relationship with food insecurity. Temperature exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with food insecurity, suggesting that increased temperatures will increase crop food insecurity. However, maize and millet, benefit from increased summer and winter temperatures. The simulated effects of different climate change scenarios on food insecurity suggest that adverse climate change will increase food insecurity in Kenya. The largest increases in food insecurity are predicted for the RCP 8.5Wm2, compared to RCP 4.5Wm2. Climate change is likely to have the greatest effects on maize insecurity, which is likely to increase by between 8.56% and 21% by the year 2100. There exists a need for policies that safeguard agriculture against the adverse effects of climate change to alleviate food insecurity in Kenya. Therefore, it is important that climate change mitigation is given much more priority in policy planning and also implementation.

Efficiency of repeated phytoextraction of cadmium and zinc from an agricultural soil contaminated with sewage sludge.

PubMed

Luo, Kai; Ma, Tingting; Liu, Hongyan; Wu, Longhua; Ren, Jing; Nai, Fengjiao; Li, Rui; Chen, Like; Luo, Yongming; Christie, Peter

2015-01-01

Long-term application of sewage sludge resulted in soil cadmium (Cd) and zinc (Zn) contamination in a pot experiment conducted to phytoextract Cd/Zn repeatedly using Sedum plumbizincicola and Apium graceolens in monoculture or intercropping mode eight times. Shoot yields and soil physicochemical properties changed markedly with increasing number of remediation crops when the two plant species were intercropped compared with the unplanted control soil and the two monoculture treatments. Changes in soil microbial indices such as average well colour development, soil enzyme activity and soil microbial counts were also significantly affected by the growth of the remediation plants, especially intercropping with S. plumbizincicola and A. graveolens. The higher yields and amounts of Cd taken up indicated that intercropping of the hyperaccumulator and the vegetable species may be suitable for simultaneous agricultural production and soil remediation, with larger crop yields and higher phytoremediation efficiencies than under monoculture conditions.

Benefits of seasonal forecasts of crop yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakurai, G.; Okada, M.; Nishimori, M.; Yokozawa, M.

2017-12-01

Major factors behind recent fluctuations in food prices include increased biofuel production and oil price fluctuations. In addition, several extreme climate events that reduced worldwide food production coincided with upward spikes in food prices. The stabilization of crop yields is one of the most important tasks to stabilize food prices and thereby enhance food security. Recent development of technologies related to crop modeling and seasonal weather forecasting has made it possible to forecast future crop yields for maize and soybean. However, the effective use of these technologies remains limited. Here we present the potential benefits of seasonal crop-yield forecasts on a global scale for choice of planting day. For this purpose, we used a model (PRYSBI-2) that can well replicate past crop yields both for maize and soybean. This model system uses a Bayesian statistical approach to estimate the parameters of a basic process-based model of crop growth. The spatial variability of model parameters was considered by estimating the posterior distribution of the parameters from historical yield data by using the Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method with a resolution of 1.125° × 1.125°. The posterior distributions of model parameters were estimated for each spatial grid with 30 000 MCMC steps of 10 chains each. By using this model and the estimated parameter distributions, we were able to estimate not only crop yield but also levels of associated uncertainty. We found that the global average crop yield increased about 30% as the result of the optimal selection of planting day and that the seasonal forecast of crop yield had a large benefit in and near the eastern part of Brazil and India for maize and the northern area of China for soybean. In these countries, the effects of El Niño and Indian Ocean dipole are large. The results highlight the importance of developing a system to forecast global crop yields.

Changes in crop yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostberg, Sebastian; Schewe, Jacob; Childers, Katelin; Frieler, Katja

2018-05-01

An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the policy discussion about mitigation targets, as well as for the economic evaluation of climate change impacts. Integrated assessment models often use global mean temperature change (ΔGMT) as a sole measure of climate change and, therefore, need to describe impacts as a function of ΔGMT. There is already a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with ΔGMT. It is less clear to what extent more complex biological or physiological impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of ΔGMT, even though such impacts may often be more directly relevant for human livelihoods than changes in the physical climate. Here we show that crop yield projections can indeed be described in terms of ΔGMT to a large extent, allowing for a fast estimation of crop yield changes for emissions scenarios not originally covered by climate and crop model projections. We use an ensemble of global gridded crop model simulations for the four major staple crops to show that the scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of ΔGMT. In contrast, the variance is dominated by the spread across crop models. Varying CO2 concentrations are shown to explain only a minor component of crop yield variability at different levels of global warming. In addition, we find that the variability in crop yields is expected to increase with increasing warming in many world regions. We provide, for each crop model, geographical patterns of mean yield changes that allow for a simplified description of yield changes under arbitrary pathways of global mean temperature and CO2 changes, without the need for additional climate and crop model simulations.

Characterization of Soil Moisture Level for Rice and Maize Crops using GSM Shield and Arduino Microcontroller

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gines, G. A.; Bea, J. G.; Palaoag, T. D.

2018-03-01

Soil serves a medium for plants growth. One factor that affects soil moisture is drought. Drought has been a major cause of agricultural disaster. Agricultural drought is said to occur when soil moisture is insufficient to meet crop water requirements, resulting in yield losses. In this research, it aimed to characterize soil moisture level for Rice and Maize Crops using Arduino and applying fuzzy logic. System architecture for soil moisture sensor and water pump were the basis in developing the equipment. The data gathered was characterized by applying fuzzy logic. Based on the results, applying fuzzy logic in validating the characterization of soil moisture level for Rice and Maize crops is accurate as attested by the experts. This will help the farmers in monitoring the soil moisture level of the Rice and Maize crops.

Effect of irrigation techniques and strategies on water footprint of growing crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chukalla, A. D.; Krol, M. S.; Hoekstra, A. Y. Y.

2014-12-01

Reducing the water footprint (WF) of growing crops, the largest water user and a significant contributor to the WF of many consumer products, plays a significant role in integrated and sustainable water management. The water footprint for growing crop is accounted by relating the crop yield with the corresponding consumptive water use (CWU), which both can be adjusted by measures that affect the crop growth and root-zone soil water balance. This study explored the scope for reducing the water footprint of irrigated crops by experimenting set of field level technical and managerial measures: (i) irrigation technologies (Furrow, sprinkler, drip and sub-surface drip), (ii) irrigation strategies (full and a range of sustained and controlled deficit) and (iii) field management options (zero, organic and synthetic mulching). Ranges of cases were also considered: (a) Arid and semi-arid environment (b) Loam and Sandy-loam soil types and (c) for Potato, Wheat and Maize crops; under (c) wet, normal and dry years. AquaCrop, the water driven crop growth and soil water balance model, offered the opportunity to systematically experiment these measures on water consumption and yield. Further, the green and blue water footprints of growing crop corresponding to each measure were computed by separating the root zone fluxes of the AquaCrop output into the green and blue soil water stocks and their corresponding fluxes. Results showed that in arid environment reduction in irrigation supply, CWU and WF up to 300 mm, 80 mm and 75 m3/tonne respectively can be achieved for Maize by a combination of organic mulching and drip technology with controlled deficit irrigation strategies (10-20-30-40% deficit with reference to the full irrigation requirement). These reductions come with a yield drop of 0.54 tonne/ha. In the same environment under the absence of mulching practice, the sub-surface drip perform better in reducing CWU and WF of irrigated crops followed by drip and furrow irrigation technique. This rank though changes in non-moisture limiting condition (wet year) drip performing better in reducing the WF of growing crops than sub-surface drip. It was observed that with all range of irrigation techniques, strategies and field management practices there is more room in reducing the WF of growing crops in loam than sandy-loam soil.

Wildlife-friendly farming increases crop yield: evidence for ecological intensification.

PubMed

Pywell, Richard F; Heard, Matthew S; Woodcock, Ben A; Hinsley, Shelley; Ridding, Lucy; Nowakowski, Marek; Bullock, James M

2015-10-07

Ecological intensification has been promoted as a means to achieve environmentally sustainable increases in crop yields by enhancing ecosystem functions that regulate and support production. There is, however, little direct evidence of yield benefits from ecological intensification on commercial farms growing globally important foodstuffs (grains, oilseeds and pulses). We replicated two treatments removing 3 or 8% of land at the field edge from production to create wildlife habitat in 50-60 ha patches over a 900 ha commercial arable farm in central England, and compared these to a business as usual control (no land removed). In the control fields, crop yields were reduced by as much as 38% at the field edge. Habitat creation in these lower yielding areas led to increased yield in the cropped areas of the fields, and this positive effect became more pronounced over 6 years. As a consequence, yields at the field scale were maintained--and, indeed, enhanced for some crops--despite the loss of cropland for habitat creation. These results suggested that over a 5-year crop rotation, there would be no adverse impact on overall yield in terms of monetary value or nutritional energy. This study provides a clear demonstration that wildlife-friendly management which supports ecosystem services is compatible with, and can even increase, crop yields. © 2015 The Authors.

Added-values of high spatiotemporal remote sensing data in crop yield estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, F.; Anderson, M. C.

2017-12-01

Timely and accurate estimation of crop yield before harvest is critical for food market and administrative planning. Remote sensing derived parameters have been used for estimating crop yield by using either empirical or crop growth models. The uses of remote sensing vegetation index (VI) in crop yield modeling have been typically evaluated at regional and country scales using coarse spatial resolution (a few hundred to kilo-meters) data or assessed over a small region at field level using moderate resolution spatial resolution data (10-100m). Both data sources have shown great potential in capturing spatial and temporal variability in crop yield. However, the added value of data with both high spatial and temporal resolution data has not been evaluated due to the lack of such data source with routine, global coverage. In recent years, more moderate resolution data have become freely available and data fusion approaches that combine data acquired from different spatial and temporal resolutions have been developed. These make the monitoring crop condition and estimating crop yield at field scale become possible. Here we investigate the added value of the high spatial and temporal VI for describing variability of crop yield. The explanatory ability of crop yield based on high spatial and temporal resolution remote sensing data was evaluated in a rain-fed agricultural area in the U.S. Corn Belt. Results show that the fused Landsat-MODIS (high spatial and temporal) VI explains yield variability better than single data source (Landsat or MODIS alone), with EVI2 performing slightly better than NDVI. The maximum VI describes yield variability better than cumulative VI. Even though VI is effective in explaining yield variability within season, the inter-annual variability is more complex and need additional information (e.g. weather, water use and management). Our findings augment the importance of high spatiotemporal remote sensing data and supports new moderate resolution satellite missions for agricultural applications.

Food Crops Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, E.; Huybers, P.

2009-12-01

Projections of future climate show a warming world and heterogeneous changes in precipitation. Generally, warming temperatures indicate a decrease in crop yields where they are currently grown. However, warmer climate will also open up new areas at high latitudes for crop production. Thus, there is a question whether the warmer climate with decreased yields but potentially increased growing area will produce a net increase or decrease of overall food crop production. We explore this question through a multiple linear regression model linking temperature and precipitation to crop yield. Prior studies have emphasised temporal regression which indicate uniformly decreased yields, but neglect the potentially increased area opened up for crop production. This study provides a compliment to the prior work by exploring this spatial variation. We explore this subject with a multiple linear regression model from temperature, precipitation and crop yield data over the United States. The United States was chosen as the training region for the model because there are good crop data available over the same time frame as climate data and presumably the yield from crops in the United States is optimized with respect to potential yield. We study corn, soybeans, sorghum, hard red winter wheat and soft red winter wheat using monthly averages of temperature and precipitation from NCEP reanalysis and yearly yield data from the National Agriculture Statistics Service for 1948-2008. The use of monthly averaged temperature and precipitation, which neglect extreme events that can have a significant impact on crops limits this study as does the exclusive use of United States agricultural data. The GFDL 2.1 model under a 720ppm CO2 scenario provides temperature and precipitation fields for 2040-2100 which are used to explore how the spatial regions available for crop production will change under these new conditions.

Gamma irradiation to improve plant vigour, grain development, and yield attributes of wheat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Bhupinder; Datta, P. S.

2010-02-01

Utilizing low dose gamma radiation holds promise for physiological crop improvement. Seed treatment of low dose gamma radiation 0.01-0.10 kGy reduced plant height, improved plant vigour, flag leaf area, total and number of EBT. Gamma irradiation increased grain yield due to an increase in number of EBT and grain number while 1000 grain weight was negatively affected. Further uniformity in low dose radiation response in wheat in the field suggests that the affect is essentially at physiological than at genetic level and that role of growth hormones could be crucial.

Root-Knot Nematode Management in Double-Cropped Plasticulture Vegetables

PubMed Central

Desaeger, J. A.; Csinos, A. S.

2006-01-01

Combination treatments of chisel-injected fumigants (methyl bromide, 1,3-D, metam sodium, and chloropicrin) on a first crop, followed by drip-applied fumigants (metam sodium and 1,3-D ± chloropicrin) on a second crop, with and without oxamyl drip applications were evaluated for control of Meloidogyne incognita in three different tests (2002 to 2004) in Tifton, GA. First crops were eggplant or tomato, and second crops were cantaloupe, squash, or jalapeno pepper. Double-cropped vegetables suffered much greater root-knot nematode (RKN) pressure than first crops, and almost-total yield loss occurred when second crops received no nematicide treatment. On a first crop of eggplant, all fumigants provided good nematode control and average yield increases of 10% to 15 %. On second crops, higher application rates and fumigant combinations (metam sodium and 1,3-D ± chloropicrin) improved RKN control and increased yields on average by 20% to 35 % compared to the nonfumigated control. Oxamyl increased yields of the first crop in 2003 on average by 10% to 15% but had no effect in 2004 when RKN failed to establish itself. On double-cropped squash in 2003, oxamyl following fumigation provided significant additional reduction in nematode infection and increased squash yields on average by 30% to 75%. PMID:19259431

Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability

PubMed Central

Ray, Deepak K.; Gerber, James S.; MacDonald, Graham K.; West, Paul C.

2015-01-01

Many studies have examined the role of mean climate change in agriculture, but an understanding of the influence of inter-annual climate variations on crop yields in different regions remains elusive. We use detailed crop statistics time series for ~13,500 political units to examine how recent climate variability led to variations in maize, rice, wheat and soybean crop yields worldwide. While some areas show no significant influence of climate variability, in substantial areas of the global breadbaskets, >60% of the yield variability can be explained by climate variability. Globally, climate variability accounts for roughly a third (~32–39%) of the observed yield variability. Our study uniquely illustrates spatial patterns in the relationship between climate variability and crop yield variability, highlighting where variations in temperature, precipitation or their interaction explain yield variability. We discuss key drivers for the observed variations to target further research and policy interventions geared towards buffering future crop production from climate variability. PMID:25609225

Rice crop risk map in Babahoyo canton (Ecuador)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valverde Arias, Omar; Tarquis, Ana; Garrido, Alberto

2016-04-01

It is widely known that extreme climatic phenomena occur with more intensity and frequency. This fact has put more pressure over farming, making agricultural and livestock production riskier. In order to reduce hazards and economic loses that could jeopardize farmer's incomes and even its business continuity, it is very important to implement agriculture risk management plans by governments and institutions. One of the main strategies is transfer risk by agriculture insurance. Agriculture insurance based in indexes has a significant growth in the last decade. And consist in a comparison between measured index values with a defined threshold that triggers damage losses. However, based index insurance could not be based on an isolated measurement. It is necessary to be integrated in a complete monitoring system that uses many sources of information and tools. For example, index influence areas, crop production risk maps, crop yields, claim statistics, and so on. Crop production risk is related with yield variation of crops and livestock, due to weather, pests, diseases, and other factors that affect both the quantity and quality of commodities produced. This is the risk which farmers invest more time managing, and it is completely under their control. The aim of this study is generate a crop risk map of rice that can provide risk manager important information about the status of crop facing production risks. Then, based on this information, it will be possible to make best decisions to deal with production risk. The rice crop risk map was generated qualifying a 1:25000 scale soil and climatic map of Babahoyo canton, which is located in coast region of Ecuador, where rice is one of the main crops. The methodology to obtain crop risk map starts by establishing rice crop requirements and indentifying the risks associated with this crop. A second step is to evaluate soil and climatic conditions of the study area related to optimal crop requirements. Based on it, we can determinate which level of rice crop requirement is met. Finally we have established rice crop zones classified as: suitable, moderate suitable, marginal suitable and unsuitable. Several methods have been used to estimate the degree with which crop requirements are satisfied, pondering weights of limiting factors to adequate crop conditions. Better conditions for cropping in a specific area imply less risk in production. In this case, crop will be less affected by pests and disease, although this closely depends on crop management. Farmers have to invest less money to produce and could increase their benefit. Results are showed and discussed with the aim to study the efficiency and potential of this risk map.

Phytotoxicity assay for seed production using Brassica rapa L.

EPA Science Inventory

Although pesticide drift can affect crop yield adversely, current plant testing protocols emphasize only the potential impacts on vegetative plant growth. The present study was conducted to determine whether a plant species with a short life cycle, such as Brassica rapa L. Wiscon...

Dual-Use Bioenergy-Livestock Feed Potential of Giant Miscanthus, Giant Reed, and Miscane

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

High yielding perennial grasses could integrate bioenergy-livestock operations, thereby, offsetting diversions of cropland to lignocellulosic crops, but research is needed to determine chemical composition and digestibility of leaf and stem fractions that might affect downstream uses. The objective...

[Comparison of potential yield and resource utilization efficiency of main food crops in three provinces of Northeast China under climate change].

PubMed

Wang, Xiao-yu; Yang, Xiao-guang; Sun, Shuang; Xie, Wen-juan

2015-10-01

Based on the daily data of 65 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2010 and the crop phenology data in the potential cultivation zones of thermophilic and chimonophilous crops in Northeast China, the crop potential yields were calculated through step-by-step correction method. The spatio-temporal distribution of the crop potential yields at different levels was analyzed. And then we quantified the limitations of temperature and precipitation on the crop potential yields and compared the differences in the climatic resource utilization efficiency. The results showed that the thermal potential yields of six crops (including maize, rice, spring wheat, sorghum, millet and soybean) during the period 1961-2010 deceased from west to east. The climatic potential yields of the five crops (spring wheat not included) were higher in the south than in the north. The potential yield loss rate due to temperature limitations of the six crops presented a spatial distribution pattern and was higher in the east than in the west. Among the six main crops, the yield potential loss rate due to temperature limitation of the soybean was the highest (51%), and those of the other crops fluctuated within the range of 33%-41%. The potential yield loss rate due to water limitation had an obvious regional difference, and was high in Songnen Plain and Changbai Mountains. The potential yield loss rate of spring wheat was the highest (50%), and those of the other four rainfed crops fluctuated within the range of 8%-10%. The solar energy utilization efficiency of the six main crops ranged from 0.9% to 2.7%, in the order of maize> sorghum>rice>millet>spring wheat>soybean. The precipitation utilization efficiency of the maize, sorghum, spring wheat, millet and soybean under rainfed conditions ranged from 8 to 35 kg . hm-2 . mm-1, in the order of maize>sorghum>spring wheat>millet>soybean. In those areas with lower efficiency of solar energy utilization and precipitation utilization, such as Changbai Mountains and the south of Lesser Khingan Mountains, measures could be taken to increase the efficiency of resource utilization such as rational close-planting, selection of droughtresistant varieties, proper and timely fertilization, farming for soil water storage, optimization of crop layout and so on.

Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Makowski, David; Asseng, Senthold; Ewert, Frank; Bassu, Simona; Durand, Jean-Louis; Martre, Pierre; Adam, Myriam; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos; Baron, Chritian;

Towards a Solid Foundation of Using Remotely Sensed Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence for Crop Monitoring and Yield Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Y.; Sun, Y.; You, L.; Liu, Y.

2017-12-01

The growing demand for food production due to population increase coupled with high vulnerability to volatile environmental changes poses a paramount challenge for mankind in the coming century. Real-time crop monitoring and yield forecasting must be a key part of any solution to this challenge as these activities provide vital information needed for effective and efficient crop management and for decision making. However, traditional methods of crop growth monitoring (e.g., remotely sensed vegetation indices) do not directly relate to the most important function of plants - photosynthesis and therefore crop yield. The recent advance in the satellite remote sensing of Solar-Induced chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF), an integrative photosynthetic signal from molecular origin and a direct measure of plant functions holds great promise for real-time monitoring of crop growth conditions and forecasting yields. In this study, we use satellite measurements of SIF from both the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) onboard MetOp-A and the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellites to estimate crop yield using both process-based and statistical models. We find that SIF-based crop yield well correlates with the global yield product Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM) derived from ground surveys for all major crops including maize, soybean, wheat, sorghum, and rice. The potential and challenges of using upcoming SIF satellite missions for crop monitoring and prediction will also be discussed.

Differential Impacts of Climate Change on Crops and Agricultural Regions in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, A. N.

2015-12-01

As India's farmers and policymakers consider potential adaptation strategies to climate change, some questions loom large: - Which climate variables best explain the variability of crop yields? - How does the vulnerability of crop yields to climate vary regionally? - How are these risks likely to change in the future? While process-based crop modelling has started to answer many of these questions, we believe statistical approaches can complement these in improving our understanding of climate vulnerabilities and appropriate responses. We use yield data collected over three decades for more than ten food crops grown in India along with a variety of statistical approaches to answer the above questions. The ability of climate variables to explain yield variation varies greatly by crop and season, which is expected. Equally important, the ability of models to predict crop yields as well as their coefficients varies greatly by district even for districts which are relatively close to each other and similar in their agricultural practices. We believe these results encourage caution and nuance when making projections about climate impacts on crop yields in the future. Most studies about climate impacts on crop yields focus on a handful of major food crops. By extending our analysis to all the crops with long-term district level data in India as well as two growing seasons we gain a more comprehensive picture. Our results indicate that there is a great deal of variability even at relatively small scales, and that this must be taken into account if projections are to be made useful to policymakers.

Effect of Nutrient Management Planning on Crop Yield, Nitrate Leaching and Sediment Loading in Thomas Brook Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amon-Armah, Frederick; Yiridoe, Emmanuel K.; Ahmad, Nafees H. M.; Hebb, Dale; Jamieson, Rob; Burton, David; Madani, Ali

2013-11-01

Government priorities on provincial Nutrient Management Planning (NMP) programs include improving the program effectiveness for environmental quality protection, and promoting more widespread adoption. Understanding the effect of NMP on both crop yield and key water-quality parameters in agricultural watersheds requires a comprehensive evaluation that takes into consideration important NMP attributes and location-specific farming conditions. This study applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the effects of crop and rotation sequence, tillage type, and nutrient N application rate on crop yield and the associated groundwater leaching and sediment loss. The SWAT model was applied to the Thomas Brook Watershed, located in the most intensively managed agricultural region of Nova Scotia, Canada. Cropping systems evaluated included seven fertilizer application rates and two tillage systems (i.e., conventional tillage and no-till). The analysis reflected cropping systems commonly managed by farmers in the Annapolis Valley region, including grain corn-based and potato-based cropping systems, and a vegetable-horticulture system. ANOVA models were developed and used to assess the effects of crop management choices on crop yield and two water-quality parameters (i.e., leaching and sediment loading). Results suggest that existing recommended N-fertilizer rate can be reduced by 10-25 %, for grain crop production, to significantly lower leaching ( P > 0.05) while optimizing the crop yield. The analysis identified the nutrient N rates in combination with specific crops and rotation systems that can be used to manage leaching while balancing impacts on crop yields within the watershed.

Development of a decision support system for crop disease monitoring, surveillance and prediction in Bomet county, Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otieno, O. M.

2015-12-01

The study proposes to use Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing techniques to spatially model Maize Lethal Necrosis (MLN) disease in maize growing areas in Kenya. Results from this work will be used for prediction, monitoring and to guide intervention on MLN. This will minimize maize yield losses resulting from MLN infestation and thus safeguard the livelihoods of maize farmers in Kenya. MLN was first reported in Kenya in September 2011 in Bomet county. It then subsequently spread to other parts in Kenya. Maize crops are susceptible to MLN at all growth stages. Once infected the only option left for the farmers is to burn their maize plantations. Infection rate and damage is very high affecting yields and sometimes causing complete loss of maize yield.The modelling exercise will cover the period prior to and after the incidence of MLN. Specifically, the analysis will integrate spatio-temporal information on maize phenology and field surveys with the intention of delineating the extent of MLN infestation and the degree of damage as a result of MLN. Additionally, the task will identify potential predisposing factors leading to MLN resurgence and spread and to predict potential areas where MLN is likely to spread and to estimate the potential impact of MLN on the farm holders. The area of study for this task will be Bomet County. Historical and current environmental and spatial indicators including temperature, rainfall, soil moisture, vegetation health and crop cover will be fed into a model in order to determine the main factors that aide the occurrence and the spread of MLN. Multi-spectral image processing will be used to produce indices to study maize crop health whilst image classification techniques will be used to identify crop cover clusters by differentiating the variations in spectral signatures in the area of study and hence distinguish infected, unaffected maize crops and other crop cover classes. Variables from these indicators will then be weighted in a spatial model and be used as a basis for generating site-specific MLN prediction maps that will guide policy on MLN management in Kenya. The broaderobjective is to document a model that can be up-scaled and replicated in other maize producing areas in Kenya affected by MLN.

Crop improvement using life cycle datasets acquired under field conditions.

PubMed

Mochida, Keiichi; Saisho, Daisuke; Hirayama, Takashi

2015-01-01

Crops are exposed to various environmental stresses in the field throughout their life cycle. Modern plant science has provided remarkable insights into the molecular networks of plant stress responses in laboratory conditions, but the responses of different crops to environmental stresses in the field need to be elucidated. Recent advances in omics analytical techniques and information technology have enabled us to integrate data from a spectrum of physiological metrics of field crops. The interdisciplinary efforts of plant science and data science enable us to explore factors that affect crop productivity and identify stress tolerance-related genes and alleles. Here, we describe recent advances in technologies that are key components for data driven crop design, such as population genomics, chronological omics analyses, and computer-aided molecular network prediction. Integration of the outcomes from these technologies will accelerate our understanding of crop phenology under practical field situations and identify key characteristics to represent crop stress status. These elements would help us to genetically engineer "designed crops" to prevent yield shortfalls because of environmental fluctuations due to future climate change.

Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). Feasibility of assessing crop condition and yield from LANDSAT data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Yield modelling for crop production estimation derived a means of predicting the within-a-year yield and the year-to-year variability of yield over some fixed or randomly located unit of area. Preliminary studies indicated that the requirements for interpreting LANDSAT data for yield may be sufficiently similar to those of signature extension that it is feasible to investigate the automated estimation of production. The concept of an advanced yield model consisting of both spectral and meteorological components was endorsed. Rationale for using meteorological parameters originated from known between season and near harvest dynamics in crop environmental-condition-yield relationships.

Yield model development project implementation plan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ambroziak, R. A.

1982-01-01

Tasks remaining to be completed are summarized for the following major project elements: (1) evaluation of crop yield models; (2) crop yield model research and development; (3) data acquisition processing, and storage; (4) related yield research: defining spectral and/or remote sensing data requirements; developing input for driving and testing crop growth/yield models; real time testing of wheat plant process models) and (5) project management and support.

Understanding the Impact of Extreme Temperature on Crop Production in Karnataka in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahato, S.; Murari, K. K.; Jayaraman, T.

2017-12-01

The impact of extreme temperature on crop yield is seldom explored in work around climate change impact on agriculture. Further, these studies are restricted mainly to crops such as wheat and maize. Since different agro-climatic zones bear different crops and cropping patterns, it is important to explore the nature of the impact of changes in climate variables in agricultural systems under differential conditions. The study explores the effects of temperature rise on the major crops paddy, jowar, ragi and tur in the state of Karnataka of southern India. The choice of the unit of study to understand impact of climate variability on crop yields is largely restricted to availability of data for the unit. While, previous studies have dealt with this issue by replacing yield with NDVI at finer resolution, the use of an index in place of yield data has its limitations and may not reflect the true estimates. For this study, the unit considered is taluk, i.e. sub-district level. The crop yield for taluk is obtained between the year the 1995 to 2011 by aggregating point yield data from crop cutting experiments for each year across the taluks. The long term temperature data shows significantly increasing trend that ranges between 0.6 to 0.75 C across Karnataka. Further, the analysis suggests a warming trend in seasonal average temperature for Kharif and Rabi seasons across districts. The study also found that many districts exhibit the tendency of occurrence of extreme temperature days, which is of particular concern in terms of crop yield, since exposure of crops to extreme temperature has negative consequences for crop production and productivity. Using growing degree days GDD, extreme degree days EDD and total season rainfall as predictor variables, the fixed effect model shows that EDD is a more influential parameter as compared to GDD and rainfall. Also it has a statistically significant negative effect in most cases. Further, quantile regression was used to evaluate the robustness of the estimates of EDD in relation to crop yield. This showed the estimates to be robust across quantiles for most of the crops studied. Thus indicating a strong negative influence of exposure to extreme temperature on crop yield in the region.

Regional crop yield forecasting: a probabilistic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Wit, A.; van Diepen, K.; Boogaard, H.

2009-04-01

Information on the outlook on yield and production of crops over large regions is essential for government services dealing with import and export of food crops, for agencies with a role in food relief, for international organizations with a mandate in monitoring the world food production and trade, and for commodity traders. Process-based mechanistic crop models are an important tool for providing such information, because they can integrate the effect of crop management, weather and soil on crop growth. When properly integrated in a yield forecasting system, the aggregated model output can be used to predict crop yield and production at regional, national and continental scales. Nevertheless, given the scales at which these models operate, the results are subject to large uncertainties due to poorly known weather conditions and crop management. Current yield forecasting systems are generally deterministic in nature and provide no information about the uncertainty bounds on their output. To improve on this situation we present an ensemble-based approach where uncertainty bounds can be derived from the dispersion of results in the ensemble. The probabilistic information provided by this ensemble-based system can be used to quantify uncertainties (risk) on regional crop yield forecasts and can therefore be an important support to quantitative risk analysis in a decision making process.

The limits of crop productivity: validating theoretical estimates and determining the factors that limit crop yields in optimal environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bugbee, B.; Monje, O.

1992-01-01

Plant scientists have sought to maximize the yield of food crops since the beginning of agriculture. There are numerous reports of record food and biomass yields (per unit area) in all major crop plants, but many of the record yield reports are in error because they exceed the maximal theoretical rates of the component processes. In this article, we review the component processes that govern yield limits and describe how each process can be individually measured. This procedure has helped us validate theoretical estimates and determine what factors limit yields in optimal environments.

Biological mode of action of a nitrophenolates-based biostimulant: case study

PubMed Central

Przybysz, Arkadiusz; Gawrońska, Helena; Gajc-Wolska, Janina

2014-01-01

The challenges facing modern plant production involve (i) responding to the demand for food and resources of plant origin from the world's rapidly growing population, (ii) coping with the negative impact of stressful conditions mainly due to anthropopressure, and (iii) meeting consumers' new requirements and preferences for food that is high in nutritive value, natural, and free from harmful chemical additives. Despite employing the most modern plant cultivation technologies and the progress that has been made in breeding programs, the genetically-determined crop potential is still far from being fully exploited. Consequently yield and quality are often reduced, making production less, both profitable and attractive. There is an increasing desire to reduce the chemical input in agriculture and there has been a change toward integrated plant management and sustainable, environmentally-friendly systems. Biostimulants are a category of relatively new products of diverse formulations that positively affect a plant's vital processes and whose impact is usually more evident under stressful conditions. In this paper, information is provided on the mode of action of a nitrophenolates-based biostimulant, Atonik, in model species and economically important crops grown under both field and controlled conditions in a growth chamber. The effects of Atonik on plant morphology, physiology, biochemistry (crops and model plant) and yield and yield parameters (crops) is demonstrated. Effects of other biostimulants on studied in this work processes/parameters are also presented in discussion. PMID:25566287

Biological mode of action of a nitrophenolates-based biostimulant: case study.

PubMed

Przybysz, Arkadiusz; Gawrońska, Helena; Gajc-Wolska, Janina

2014-01-01

The challenges facing modern plant production involve (i) responding to the demand for food and resources of plant origin from the world's rapidly growing population, (ii) coping with the negative impact of stressful conditions mainly due to anthropopressure, and (iii) meeting consumers' new requirements and preferences for food that is high in nutritive value, natural, and free from harmful chemical additives. Despite employing the most modern plant cultivation technologies and the progress that has been made in breeding programs, the genetically-determined crop potential is still far from being fully exploited. Consequently yield and quality are often reduced, making production less, both profitable and attractive. There is an increasing desire to reduce the chemical input in agriculture and there has been a change toward integrated plant management and sustainable, environmentally-friendly systems. Biostimulants are a category of relatively new products of diverse formulations that positively affect a plant's vital processes and whose impact is usually more evident under stressful conditions. In this paper, information is provided on the mode of action of a nitrophenolates-based biostimulant, Atonik, in model species and economically important crops grown under both field and controlled conditions in a growth chamber. The effects of Atonik on plant morphology, physiology, biochemistry (crops and model plant) and yield and yield parameters (crops) is demonstrated. Effects of other biostimulants on studied in this work processes/parameters are also presented in discussion.

Spatial Sampling of Weather Data for Regional Crop Yield Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Van Bussel, Lenny G. J.; Ewert, Frank; Zhao, Gang; Hoffmann, Holger; Enders, Andreas; Wallach, Daniel; Asseng, Senthold; Baigorria, Guillermo A.; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian;

Methane production through anaerobic digestion of various energy crops grown in sustainable crop rotations.

PubMed

Amon, Thomas; Amon, Barbara; Kryvoruchko, Vitaliy; Machmüller, Andrea; Hopfner-Sixt, Katharina; Bodiroza, Vitomir; Hrbek, Regina; Friedel, Jürgen; Pötsch, Erich; Wagentristl, Helmut; Schreiner, Matthias; Zollitsch, Werner

2007-12-01

Biogas production is of major importance for the sustainable use of agrarian biomass as renewable energy source. Economic biogas production depends on high biogas yields. The project aimed at optimising anaerobic digestion of energy crops. The following aspects were investigated: suitability of different crop species and varieties, optimum time of harvesting, specific methane yield and methane yield per hectare. The experiments covered 7 maize, 2 winter wheat, 2 triticale varieties, 1 winter rye, and 2 sunflower varieties and 6 variants with permanent grassland. In the course of the vegetation period, biomass yield and biomass composition were measured. Anaerobic digestion was carried out in eudiometer batch digesters. The highest methane yields of 7500-10200 m(N)(3)ha(-1) were achieved from maize varieties with FAO numbers (value for the maturity of the maize) of 300 to 600 harvested at "wax ripeness". Methane yields of cereals ranged from 3200 to 4500 m(N)(3)ha(-1). Cereals should be harvested at "grain in the milk stage" to "grain in the dough stage". With sunflowers, methane yields between 2600 and 4550 m(N)(3)ha(-1) were achieved. There were distinct differences between the investigated sunflower varieties. Alpine grassland can yield 2700-3500 m(N)(3)CH(4)ha(-1). The methane energy value model (MEVM) was developed for the different energy crops. It estimates the specific methane yield from the nutrient composition of the energy crops. Energy crops for biogas production need to be grown in sustainable crop rotations. The paper outlines possibilities for optimising methane yield from versatile crop rotations that integrate the production of food, feed, raw materials and energy. These integrated crop rotations are highly efficient and can provide up to 320 million t COE which is 96% of the total energy demand of the road traffic of the EU-25 (the 25 Member States of the European Union).

Modeling the impact of conservation agriculture on crop production and soil properties in Mediterranean climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moussadek, Rachid; Mrabet, Rachid; Dahan, Rachid; Laghrour, Malika; Lembiad, Ibtissam; ElMourid, Mohamed

2015-04-01

In Morocco, rainfed agriculture is practiced in the majority of agricultural land. However, the intensive land use coupled to the irregular rainfall constitutes a serious threat that affect country's food security. Conservation agriculture (CA) represents a promising alternative to produce more and sustainably. In fact, the direct seeding showed high yield in arid regions of Morocco but its extending to other more humid agro-ecological zones (rainfall > 350mm) remains scarce. In order to promote CA in Morocco, differents trials have been installed in central plateau of Morocco, to compare CA to conventional tillage (CT). The yields of the main practiced crops (wheat, lentil and checkpea) under CA and CT were analyzed and compared in the 3 soils types (Vertisol, Cambisol and Calcisol). Also, we studied the effect of CA on soil organic matter (SOM) and soil losses (SL) in the 3 different sites. The APSIM model was used to model the long term impact of CA compared to CT. The results obtained in this research have shown favorable effects of CA on crop production, SOM and soil erosion. Key words: Conservation agriculture, yield, soil properties, modeling, APSIM, Morocco.

New Insights on Plant Salt Tolerance Mechanisms and Their Potential Use for Breeding

PubMed Central

Hanin, Moez; Ebel, Chantal; Ngom, Mariama; Laplaze, Laurent; Masmoudi, Khaled

2016-01-01

Soil salinization is a major threat to agriculture in arid and semi-arid regions, where water scarcity and inadequate drainage of irrigated lands severely reduce crop yield. Salt accumulation inhibits plant growth and reduces the ability to uptake water and nutrients, leading to osmotic or water-deficit stress. Salt is also causing injury of the young photosynthetic leaves and acceleration of their senescence, as the Na+ cation is toxic when accumulating in cell cytosol resulting in ionic imbalance and toxicity of transpiring leaves. To cope with salt stress, plants have evolved mainly two types of tolerance mechanisms based on either limiting the entry of salt by the roots, or controlling its concentration and distribution. Understanding the overall control of Na+ accumulation and functional studies of genes involved in transport processes, will provide a new opportunity to improve the salinity tolerance of plants relevant to food security in arid regions. A better understanding of these tolerance mechanisms can be used to breed crops with improved yield performance under salinity stress. Moreover, associations of cultures with nitrogen-fixing bacteria and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi could serve as an alternative and sustainable strategy to increase crop yields in salt-affected fields. PMID:27965692

Use of cytokinins as agrochemicals.

PubMed

Koprna, Radoslav; De Diego, Nuria; Dundálková, Lucie; Spíchal, Lukáš

2016-02-01

Plant hormones cytokinins regulate various aspects of plant growth and development. For their positive effects on branching, delaying of senescence, nutrient remobilisation, flower and seed set control they became interesting substances in search for potential agrochemicals. From the 1970' of the last century exogenous application of cytokinins have been tested in field conditions to improve yield traits of world-wide important crops such as wheat, rice, maize, barley, and soybean. Despite the extensive testing summarized in this work, so far cytokinins haven't found their stable place among commercialized plant growth regulators, mainly due to the complexity of their effects. Here we bring an overview of the outcomes obtained in pot and field experiments using cytokinin exogenous treatments, summarize the ways of application and point to the affected traits in various field crops, vegetables, cotton and fruit trees. Further, we present here outcomes of field trials performed with a derivative of N(6)-benzyladenine, 2-chloro-6-(3-methoxybenzyl)aminopurine, in spring barley and winter wheat. The effect on yield forming traits such as number of tillers, grains per ear, number of ears and the final yield was evaluated and compared after spraying of the both crops in different phenological stages. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of native bees as pollinators of cucurbit crops under floating row covers.

PubMed

Minter, Logan M; Bessin, Ricardo T

2014-10-01

Production of cucurbit crops presents growers with numerous challenges. Several severe pests and diseases can be managed through the use of rotation, trap cropping, mechanical barriers, such as row covers, and chemical applications. However, considerations must also be made for pollinating insects, as adequate pollination affects the quantity and quality of fruit. Insecticides may negatively affect pollinators; a concern enhanced in recent years due to losses in managed Apis melifera L. colonies. Row covers can be used in place of chemical control before pollination, but when removed, pests have access to fields along with the pollinators. If pollination services of native bees could be harnessed for use under continuous row covers, both concerns could be balanced for growers. The potential of two bee species which specialize on cucurbit flowers, Peponapis pruinosa Say and Xenoglossa strenua Cresson, were assessed under continuous row covers, employed over acorn squash. Experimental treatments included plots with either naturally or artificially introduced bees under row covers and control plots with row covers either permanently removed at crop flowering, or employed continuously with no added pollinating insects. Pests in plots with permanently removed row covers were managed using standard practices used in certified organic production. Marketable yields from plots inoculated with bees were indistinguishable from those produced under standard practices, indicating this system would provide adequate yields to growers without time and monetary inputs of insecticide applications. Additionally, application of this technique was investigated for muskmelon production and discussed along with considerations for farm management.

Food system consequences of a fungal disease epidemic in a major crop.

PubMed

Godfray, H Charles J; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman

2016-12-05

Fungal diseases are major threats to the most important crops upon which humanity depends. Were there to be a major epidemic that severely reduced yields, its effects would spread throughout the globalized food system. To explore these ramifications, we use a partial equilibrium economic model of the global food system (IMPACT) to study a hypothetical severe but short-lived epidemic that reduces rice yields in the countries affected by 80%. We modelled a succession of epidemic scenarios of increasing severity, starting with the disease in a single country in southeast Asia and ending with the pathogen present in most of eastern Asia. The epidemic and subsequent crop losses led to substantially increased global rice prices. However, as long as global commodity trade was unrestricted and able to respond fast enough, the effects on individual calorie consumption were, to a large part, mitigated. Some of the worse effects were projected to be experienced by poor net-rice importing countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which were not affected directly by the disease but suffered because of higher rice prices. We critique the assumptions of our models and explore political economic pressures to restrict trade at times of crisis. We finish by arguing for the importance of 'stress-testing' the resilience of the global food system to crop disease and other shocks.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'. © 2016 The Author(s).

The Role of Climate Covariability on Crop Yields in the Conterminous United States

DOE PAGES

Leng, Guoyong; Zhang, Xuesong; Huang, Maoyi; ...

2016-09-12

The covariability of temperature (T), precipitation (P) and radiation (R) is an important aspect in understanding the climate influence on crop yields. Here in this paper, we analyze county-level corn and soybean yields and observed climate for the period 1983–2012 to understand how growing-season (June, July and August) mean T, P and R influence crop yields jointly and in isolation across the CONterminous United States (CONUS). Results show that nationally averaged corn and soybean yields exhibit large interannual variability of 21% and 22%, of which 35% and 32% can be significantly explained by T and P, respectively. By including R,more » an additional of 5% in variability can be explained for both crops. Using partial regression analyses, we find that studies that ignore the covariability among T, P, and R can substantially overestimate the sensitivity of crop yields to a single climate factor at the county scale. Further analyses indicate large spatial variation in the relative contributions of different climate variables to the variability of historical corn and soybean yields. Finally, the structure of the dominant climate factors did not change substantially over 1983–2012, confirming the robustness of the findings, which have important implications for crop yield prediction and crop model validations.« less

Biotechnological advancement in genetic improvement of broccoli (Brassica oleracea L. var. italica), an important vegetable crop.

PubMed

Kumar, Pankaj; Srivastava, Dinesh Kumar

2016-07-01

With the advent of molecular biotechnology, plant genetic engineering techniques have opened an avenue for the genetic improvement of important vegetable crops. Vegetable crop productivity and quality are seriously affected by various biotic and abiotic stresses which destabilize rural economies in many countries. Moreover, absence of proper post-harvest storage and processing facilities leads to qualitative and quantitative losses. In the past four decades, conventional breeding has significantly contributed to the improvement of vegetable yields, quality, post-harvest life, and resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses. However, there are many constraints in conventional breeding, which can only be overcome by advancements made in modern biology. Broccoli (Brassica oleracea L. var. italica) is an important vegetable crop, of the family Brassicaceae; however, various biotic and abiotic stresses cause enormous crop yield losses during the commercial cultivation of broccoli. Thus, genetic engineering can be used as a tool to add specific characteristics to existing cultivars. However, a pre-requisite for transferring genes into plants is the availability of efficient regeneration and transformation techniques. Recent advances in plant genetic engineering provide an opportunity to improve broccoli in many aspects. The goal of this review is to summarize genetic transformation studies on broccoli to draw the attention of researchers and scientists for its further genetic advancement.

Yield and Economic Responses of Peanut to Crop Rotation Sequence

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

National Peanut Research Laboratory, Dawson, GA 39842. Proper crop rotation is essential to maintaining high peanut yield and quality. However, the economic considerations of maintaining or altering crop rotation sequences must incorporate the commodity prices, production costs, and yield responses...

Hyperspectral imagery for mapping crop yield for precision agriculture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Crop yield is perhaps the most important piece of information for crop management in precision agriculture. It integrates the effects of various spatial variables such as soil properties, topographic attributes, tillage, plant population, fertilization, irrigation, and pest infestations. A yield map...

Salience Assignment for Multiple-Instance Data and Its Application to Crop Yield Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wagstaff, Kiri L.; Lane, Terran

2010-01-01

An algorithm was developed to generate crop yield predictions from orbital remote sensing observations, by analyzing thousands of pixels per county and the associated historical crop yield data for those counties. The algorithm determines which pixels contain which crop. Since each known yield value is associated with thousands of individual pixels, this is a multiple instance learning problem. Because individual crop growth is related to the resulting yield, this relationship has been leveraged to identify pixels that are individually related to corn, wheat, cotton, and soybean yield. Those that have the strongest relationship to a given crop s yield values are most likely to contain fields with that crop. Remote sensing time series data (a new observation every 8 days) was examined for each pixel, which contains information for that pixel s growth curve, peak greenness, and other relevant features. An alternating-projection (AP) technique was used to first estimate the "salience" of each pixel, with respect to the given target (crop yield), and then those estimates were used to build a regression model that relates input data (remote sensing observations) to the target. This is achieved by constructing an exemplar for each crop in each county that is a weighted average of all the pixels within the county; the pixels are weighted according to the salience values. The new regression model estimate then informs the next estimate of the salience values. By iterating between these two steps, the algorithm converges to a stable estimate of both the salience of each pixel and the regression model. The salience values indicate which pixels are most relevant to each crop under consideration.

Elucidating the impact of temperature variability and extremes on cereal croplands through remote sensing.

PubMed

Duncan, John M A; Dash, Jadunandan; Atkinson, Peter M

2015-04-01

Remote sensing-derived wheat crop yield-climate models were developed to highlight the impact of temperature variation during thermo-sensitive periods (anthesis and grain-filling; TSP) of wheat crop development. Specific questions addressed are: can the impact of temperature variation occurring during the TSP on wheat crop yield be detected using remote sensing data and what is the impact? Do crop critical temperature thresholds during TSP exist in real world cropping landscapes? These questions are tested in one of the world's major wheat breadbaskets of Punjab and Haryana, north-west India. Warming average minimum temperatures during the TSP had a greater negative impact on wheat crop yield than warming maximum temperatures. Warming minimum and maximum temperatures during the TSP explain a greater amount of variation in wheat crop yield than average growing season temperature. In complex real world cereal croplands there was a variable yield response to critical temperature threshold exceedance, specifically a more pronounced negative impact on wheat yield with increased warming events above 35 °C. The negative impact of warming increases with a later start-of-season suggesting earlier sowing can reduce wheat crop exposure harmful temperatures. However, even earlier sown wheat experienced temperature-induced yield losses, which, when viewed in the context of projected warming up to 2100 indicates adaptive responses should focus on increasing wheat tolerance to heat. This study shows it is possible to capture the impacts of temperature variation during the TSP on wheat crop yield in real world cropping landscapes using remote sensing data; this has important implications for monitoring the impact of climate change, variation and heat extremes on wheat croplands. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A model to estimate hydrological processes and water budget from an irrigation pond in Mississippi

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

With increased interest to conserve groundwater resources without adversely affecting crop yield potential, more irrigation farm ponds have been constructed in recent years in Mississippi. However, the hydrological processes, water budget, and environmental benefits and consequences of these ponds h...

Abscisic acid and abiotic stress tolerance in crop plants

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

biotic stress is a primary threat to fulfill the demand of agricultural production to feed the world in coming decades. Plants reduce growth and development process during stress conditions, which ultimately affect the yield. In stress conditions, plants develop various stress mechanism to face the ...

Cover crops support ecological intensification of arable cropping systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wittwer, Raphaël A.; Dorn, Brigitte; Jossi, Werner; van der Heijden, Marcel G. A.

2017-02-01

A major challenge for agriculture is to enhance productivity with minimum impact on the environment. Several studies indicate that cover crops could replace anthropogenic inputs and enhance crop productivity. However, so far, it is unclear if cover crop effects vary between different cropping systems, and direct comparisons among major arable production systems are rare. Here we compared the short-term effects of various cover crops on crop yield, nitrogen uptake, and weed infestation in four arable production systems (conventional cropping with intensive tillage and no-tillage; organic cropping with intensive tillage and reduced tillage). We hypothesized that cover cropping effects increase with decreasing management intensity. Our study demonstrated that cover crop effects on crop yield were highest in the organic system with reduced tillage (+24%), intermediate in the organic system with tillage (+13%) and in the conventional system with no tillage (+8%) and lowest in the conventional system with tillage (+2%). Our results indicate that cover crops are essential to maintaining a certain yield level when soil tillage intensity is reduced (e.g. under conservation agriculture), or when production is converted to organic agriculture. Thus, the inclusion of cover crops provides additional opportunities to increase the yield of lower intensity production systems and contribute to ecological intensification.

Linking ecophysiological modelling with quantitative genetics to support marker-assisted crop design for improved yields of rice (Oryza sativa) under drought stress

PubMed Central

Gu, Junfei; Yin, Xinyou; Zhang, Chengwei; Wang, Huaqi; Struik, Paul C.

2014-01-01

Background and Aims Genetic markers can be used in combination with ecophysiological crop models to predict the performance of genotypes. Crop models can estimate the contribution of individual markers to crop performance in given environments. The objectives of this study were to explore the use of crop models to design markers and virtual ideotypes for improving yields of rice (Oryza sativa) under drought stress. Methods Using the model GECROS, crop yield was dissected into seven easily measured parameters. Loci for these parameters were identified for a rice population of 94 introgression lines (ILs) derived from two parents differing in drought tolerance. Marker-based values of ILs for each of these parameters were estimated from additive allele effects of the loci, and were fed to the model in order to simulate yields of the ILs grown under well-watered and drought conditions and in order to design virtual ideotypes for those conditions. Key Results To account for genotypic yield differences, it was necessary to parameterize the model for differences in an additional trait ‘total crop nitrogen uptake’ (Nmax) among the ILs. Genetic variation in Nmax had the most significant effect on yield; five other parameters also significantly influenced yield, but seed weight and leaf photosynthesis did not. Using the marker-based parameter values, GECROS also simulated yield variation among 251 recombinant inbred lines of the same parents. The model-based dissection approach detected more markers than the analysis using only yield per se. Model-based sensitivity analysis ranked all markers for their importance in determining yield differences among the ILs. Virtual ideotypes based on markers identified by modelling had 10–36 % more yield than those based on markers for yield per se. Conclusions This study outlines a genotype-to-phenotype approach that exploits the potential value of marker-based crop modelling in developing new plant types with high yields. The approach can provide more markers for selection programmes for specific environments whilst also allowing for prioritization. Crop modelling is thus a powerful tool for marker design for improved rice yields and for ideotyping under contrasting conditions. PMID:24984712

Climatically driven yield variability of major crops in Khakassia (South Siberia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babushkina, Elena A.; Belokopytova, Liliana V.; Zhirnova, Dina F.; Shah, Santosh K.; Kostyakova, Tatiana V.

2018-06-01

We investigated the variability of yield of the three main crop cultures in the Khakassia Republic: spring wheat, spring barley, and oats. In terms of yield values, variability characteristics, and climatic response, the agricultural territory of Khakassia can be divided into three zones: (1) the Northern Zone, where crops yield has a high positive response to the amount of precipitation, May-July, and a moderately negative one to the temperatures of the same period; (2) the Central Zone, where crops yield depends mainly on temperatures; and (3) the Southern Zone, where climate has the least expressed impact on yield. The dominant pattern in the crops yield is caused by water stress during periods of high temperatures and low moisture supply with heat stress as additional reason. Differences between zones are due to combinations of temperature latitudinal gradient, precipitation altitudinal gradient, and the presence of a well-developed hydrological network and the irrigational system as moisture sources in the Central Zone. More detailed analysis shows differences in the climatic sensitivity of crops during phases of their vegetative growth and grain development and, to a lesser extent, during harvesting period. Multifactor linear regression models were constructed to estimate climate- and autocorrelation-induced variability of the crops yield. These models allowed prediction of the possibility of yield decreasing by at least 2-11% in the next decade due to increasing of the regional summer temperatures.

Climatically driven yield variability of major crops in Khakassia (South Siberia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babushkina, Elena A.; Belokopytova, Liliana V.; Zhirnova, Dina F.; Shah, Santosh K.; Kostyakova, Tatiana V.

2017-12-01

We investigated the variability of yield of the three main crop cultures in the Khakassia Republic: spring wheat, spring barley, and oats. In terms of yield values, variability characteristics, and climatic response, the agricultural territory of Khakassia can be divided into three zones: (1) the Northern Zone, where crops yield has a high positive response to the amount of precipitation, May-July, and a moderately negative one to the temperatures of the same period; (2) the Central Zone, where crops yield depends mainly on temperatures; and (3) the Southern Zone, where climate has the least expressed impact on yield. The dominant pattern in the crops yield is caused by water stress during periods of high temperatures and low moisture supply with heat stress as additional reason. Differences between zones are due to combinations of temperature latitudinal gradient, precipitation altitudinal gradient, and the presence of a well-developed hydrological network and the irrigational system as moisture sources in the Central Zone. More detailed analysis shows differences in the climatic sensitivity of crops during phases of their vegetative growth and grain development and, to a lesser extent, during harvesting period. Multifactor linear regression models were constructed to estimate climate- and autocorrelation-induced variability of the crops yield. These models allowed prediction of the possibility of yield decreasing by at least 2-11% in the next decade due to increasing of the regional summer temperatures.

Future possible crop yield scenarios under multiple SSP and RCP scenarios.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakurai, G.; Yokozawa, M.; Nishimori, M.; Okada, M.

2016-12-01

Understanding the effect of future climate change on global crop yields is one of the most important tasks for global food security. Future crop yields would be influenced by climatic factors such as the changes of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. On the other hand, the effect of the changes of agricultural technologies such as crop varieties, pesticide and fertilizer input on crop yields have large uncertainty. However, not much is available on the contribution ratio of each factor under the future climate change scenario. We estimated the future global yields of four major crops (maize, soybean, rice and wheat) under three Shared Socio Economic Pathways (SSPs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For this purpose, firstly, we estimated a parameter of a process based model (PRYSBI2) using a Bayesian method for each 1.125 degree spatial grid. The model parameter is relevant to the agricultural technology (we call "technological parameter" here after). Then, we analyzed the relationship between the values of technological parameter and GDP values. We found that the estimated values of the technological parameter were positively correlated with the GDP. Using the estimated relationship, we predicted future crop yield during 2020 and 2100 under SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3 scenarios and RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. The estimated crop yields were different among SSP scenarios. However, we found that the yield difference attributable to SSPs were smaller than those attributable to CO2 fertilization effects and climate change. Particularly, the estimated effect of the change of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on global yields was more than four times larger than that of GDP for C3 crops.

Random Forests for Global and Regional Crop Yield Predictions.

PubMed

Jeong, Jig Han; Resop, Jonathan P; Mueller, Nathaniel D; Fleisher, David H; Yun, Kyungdahm; Butler, Ethan E; Timlin, Dennis J; Shim, Kyo-Moon; Gerber, James S; Reddy, Vangimalla R; Kim, Soo-Hyung

2016-01-01

Accurate predictions of crop yield are critical for developing effective agricultural and food policies at the regional and global scales. We evaluated a machine-learning method, Random Forests (RF), for its ability to predict crop yield responses to climate and biophysical variables at global and regional scales in wheat, maize, and potato in comparison with multiple linear regressions (MLR) serving as a benchmark. We used crop yield data from various sources and regions for model training and testing: 1) gridded global wheat grain yield, 2) maize grain yield from US counties over thirty years, and 3) potato tuber and maize silage yield from the northeastern seaboard region. RF was found highly capable of predicting crop yields and outperformed MLR benchmarks in all performance statistics that were compared. For example, the root mean square errors (RMSE) ranged between 6 and 14% of the average observed yield with RF models in all test cases whereas these values ranged from 14% to 49% for MLR models. Our results show that RF is an effective and versatile machine-learning method for crop yield predictions at regional and global scales for its high accuracy and precision, ease of use, and utility in data analysis. RF may result in a loss of accuracy when predicting the extreme ends or responses beyond the boundaries of the training data.

Regional crop gross primary production and yield estimation using fused Landsat-MODIS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, M.; Kimball, J. S.; Maneta, M. P.; Maxwell, B. D.; Moreno, A.

2017-12-01

Accurate crop yield assessments using satellite-based remote sensing are of interest for the design of regional policies that promote agricultural resiliency and food security. However, the application of current vegetation productivity algorithms derived from global satellite observations are generally too coarse to capture cropland heterogeneity. Merging information from sensors with reciprocal spatial and temporal resolution can improve the accuracy of these retrievals. In this study, we estimate annual crop yields for seven important crop types -alfalfa, barley, corn, durum wheat, peas, spring wheat and winter wheat over Montana, United States (U.S.) from 2008 to 2015. Yields are estimated as the product of gross primary production (GPP) and a crop-specific harvest index (HI) at 30 m spatial resolution. To calculate GPP we used a modified form of the MOD17 LUE algorithm driven by a 30 m 8-day fused NDVI dataset constructed by blending Landsat (5 or 7) and MODIS Terra reflectance data. The fused 30-m NDVI record shows good consistency with the original Landsat and MODIS data, but provides better spatiotemporal information on cropland vegetation growth. The resulting GPP estimates capture characteristic cropland patterns and seasonal variations, while the estimated annual 30 m crop yield results correspond favorably with county-level crop yield data (r=0.96, p<0.05). The estimated crop yield performance was generally lower, but still favorable in relation to field-scale crop yield surveys (r=0.42, p<0.01). Our methods and results are suitable for operational applications at regional scales.

Analysis of the trade-off between high crop yield and low yield instability at the global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben-Ari, Tamara; Makowski, David

2016-10-01

Yield dynamics of major crops species vary remarkably among continents. Worldwide distribution of cropland influences both the expected levels and the interannual variability of global yields. An expansion of cultivated land in the most productive areas could theoretically increase global production, but also increase global yield instability if the most productive regions are characterized by high interannual yield variability. In this letter, we use portfolio analysis to quantify the tradeoff between the expected values and the interannual variance of global yield. We compute optimal frontiers for four crop species i.e., maize, rice, soybean and wheat and show how the distribution of cropland among large world regions can be optimized to either increase expected global crop production or decrease its interannual variability. We also show that a preferential allocation of cropland in the most productive regions can increase global expected yield at the expense of yield stability. Theoretically, optimizing the distribution of a small fraction of total cultivated areas can help find a good compromise between low instability and high crop yields at the global scale.

Sensitivity analysis of the Aquacrop and SAFYE crop models for the assessment of water limited winter wheat yield in regional scale applications.

PubMed

Silvestro, Paolo Cosmo; Pignatti, Stefano; Yang, Hao; Yang, Guijun; Pascucci, Simone; Castaldi, Fabio; Casa, Raffaele

2017-01-01

Process-based models can be usefully employed for the assessment of field and regional-scale impact of drought on crop yields. However, in many instances, especially when they are used at the regional scale, it is necessary to identify the parameters and input variables that most influence the outputs and to assess how their influence varies when climatic and environmental conditions change. In this work, two different crop models, able to represent yield response to water, Aquacrop and SAFYE, were compared, with the aim to quantify their complexity and plasticity through Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), using Morris and EFAST (Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test) techniques, for moderate to strong water limited climate scenarios. Although the rankings of the sensitivity indices was influenced by the scenarios used, the correlation among the rankings, higher for SAFYE than for Aquacrop, assessed by the top-down correlation coefficient (TDCC), revealed clear patterns. Parameters and input variables related to phenology and to water stress physiological processes were found to be the most influential for Aquacrop. For SAFYE, it was found that the water stress could be inferred indirectly from the processes regulating leaf growth, described in the original SAFY model. SAFYE has a lower complexity and plasticity than Aquacrop, making it more suitable to less data demanding regional scale applications, in case the only objective is the assessment of crop yield and no detailed information is sought on the mechanisms of the stress factors affecting its limitations.

Sensitivity analysis of the Aquacrop and SAFYE crop models for the assessment of water limited winter wheat yield in regional scale applications

PubMed Central

Pignatti, Stefano; Yang, Hao; Yang, Guijun; Pascucci, Simone; Castaldi, Fabio

2017-01-01

Process-based models can be usefully employed for the assessment of field and regional-scale impact of drought on crop yields. However, in many instances, especially when they are used at the regional scale, it is necessary to identify the parameters and input variables that most influence the outputs and to assess how their influence varies when climatic and environmental conditions change. In this work, two different crop models, able to represent yield response to water, Aquacrop and SAFYE, were compared, with the aim to quantify their complexity and plasticity through Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), using Morris and EFAST (Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test) techniques, for moderate to strong water limited climate scenarios. Although the rankings of the sensitivity indices was influenced by the scenarios used, the correlation among the rankings, higher for SAFYE than for Aquacrop, assessed by the top-down correlation coefficient (TDCC), revealed clear patterns. Parameters and input variables related to phenology and to water stress physiological processes were found to be the most influential for Aquacrop. For SAFYE, it was found that the water stress could be inferred indirectly from the processes regulating leaf growth, described in the original SAFY model. SAFYE has a lower complexity and plasticity than Aquacrop, making it more suitable to less data demanding regional scale applications, in case the only objective is the assessment of crop yield and no detailed information is sought on the mechanisms of the stress factors affecting its limitations. PMID:29107963

The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions.

PubMed

Wang, Enli; Martre, Pierre; Zhao, Zhigan; Ewert, Frank; Maiorano, Andrea; Rötter, Reimund P; Kimball, Bruce A; Ottman, Michael J; Wall, Gerard W; White, Jeffrey W; Reynolds, Matthew P; Alderman, Phillip D; Aggarwal, Pramod K; Anothai, Jakarat; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Cammarano, Davide; Challinor, Andrew J; De Sanctis, Giacomo; Doltra, Jordi; Fereres, Elias; Garcia-Vila, Margarita; Gayler, Sebastian; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Hunt, Leslie A; Izaurralde, Roberto C; Jabloun, Mohamed; Jones, Curtis D; Kersebaum, Kurt C; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Liu, Leilei; Müller, Christoph; Naresh Kumar, Soora; Nendel, Claas; O'Leary, Garry; Olesen, Jørgen E; Palosuo, Taru; Priesack, Eckart; Eyshi Rezaei, Ehsan; Ripoche, Dominique; Ruane, Alex C; Semenov, Mikhail A; Shcherbak, Iurii; Stöckle, Claudio; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Thorburn, Peter; Waha, Katharina; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Zhimin; Wolf, Joost; Zhu, Yan; Asseng, Senthold

2017-07-17

Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for >50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 °C to 33 °C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% (42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections.

The Uncertainty of Crop Yield Projections Is Reduced by Improved Temperature Response Functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Enli; Martre, Pierre; Zhao, Zhigan; Ewert, Frank; Maiorano, Andrea; Rotter, Reimund P.; Kimball, Bruce A.; Ottman, Michael J.; White, Jeffrey W.; Reynolds, Matthew P.;

Fusion of multi-source remote sensing data for agriculture monitoring tasks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skakun, S.; Franch, B.; Vermote, E.; Roger, J. C.; Becker Reshef, I.; Justice, C. O.; Masek, J. G.; Murphy, E.

2016-12-01

Remote sensing data is essential source of information for enabling monitoring and quantification of crop state at global and regional scales. Crop mapping, state assessment, area estimation and yield forecasting are the main tasks that are being addressed within GEO-GLAM. Efficiency of agriculture monitoring can be improved when heterogeneous multi-source remote sensing datasets are integrated. Here, we present several case studies of utilizing MODIS, Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 data along with meteorological data (growing degree days - GDD) for winter wheat yield forecasting, mapping and area estimation. Archived coarse spatial resolution data, such as MODIS, VIIRS and AVHRR, can provide daily global observations that coupled with statistical data on crop yield can enable the development of empirical models for timely yield forecasting at national level. With the availability of high-temporal and high spatial resolution Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2A imagery, course resolution empirical yield models can be downscaled to provide yield estimates at regional and field scale. In particular, we present the case study of downscaling the MODIS CMG based generalized winter wheat yield forecasting model to high spatial resolution data sets, namely harmonized Landsat-8 - Sentinel-2A surface reflectance product (HLS). Since the yield model requires corresponding in season crop masks, we propose an automatic approach to extract winter crop maps from MODIS NDVI and MERRA2 derived GDD using Gaussian mixture model (GMM). Validation for the state of Kansas (US) and Ukraine showed that the approach can yield accuracies > 90% without using reference (ground truth) data sets. Another application of yearly derived winter crop maps is their use for stratification purposes within area frame sampling for crop area estimation. In particular, one can simulate the dependence of error (coefficient of variation) on the number of samples and strata size. This approach was used for estimating the area of winter crops in Ukraine for 2013-2016. The GMM-GDD approach is further extended for HLS data to provide automatic winter crop mapping at 30 m resolution for crop yield model and area estimation. In case of persistent cloudiness, addition of Sentinel-1A synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images is explored for automatic winter crop mapping.

The implication of irrigation in climate change impact assessment: a European-wide study.

PubMed

Zhao, Gang; Webber, Heidi; Hoffmann, Holger; Wolf, Joost; Siebert, Stefan; Ewert, Frank

2015-11-01

This study evaluates the impacts of projected climate change on irrigation requirements and yields of six crops (winter wheat, winter barley, rapeseed, grain maize, potato, and sugar beet) in Europe. Furthermore, the uncertainty deriving from consideration of irrigation, CO2 effects on crop growth and transpiration, and different climate change scenarios in climate change impact assessments is quantified. Net irrigation requirement (NIR) and yields of the six crops were simulated for a baseline (1982-2006) and three SRES scenarios (B1, B2 and A1B, 2040-2064) under rainfed and irrigated conditions, using a process-based crop model, SIMPLACE . We found that projected climate change decreased NIR of the three winter crops in northern Europe (up to 81 mm), but increased NIR of all the six crops in the Mediterranean regions (up to 182 mm yr(-1) ). Climate change increased yields of the three winter crops and sugar beet in middle and northern regions (up to 36%), but decreased their yields in Mediterranean countries (up to 81%). Consideration of CO2 effects can alter the direction of change in NIR for irrigated crops in the south and of yields for C3 crops in central and northern Europe. Constraining the model to rainfed conditions for spring crops led to a negative bias in simulating climate change impacts on yields (up to 44%), which was proportional to the irrigation ratio of the simulation unit. Impacts on NIR and yields were generally consistent across the three SRES scenarios for the majority of regions in Europe. We conclude that due to the magnitude of irrigation and CO2 effects, they should both be considered in the simulation of climate change impacts on crop production and water availability, particularly for crops and regions with a high proportion of irrigated crop area. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Can phosphorus application and cover cropping alter arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities and soybean performance after a five-year phosphorus-unfertilized crop rotational system?

PubMed

Higo, Masao; Sato, Ryohei; Serizawa, Ayu; Takahashi, Yuichi; Gunji, Kento; Tatewaki, Yuya; Isobe, Katsunori

2018-01-01

Understanding diversity of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) is important for optimizing their role for phosphorus (P) nutrition of soybeans ( Glycine max (L.) Merr.) in P-limited soils. However, it is not clear how soybean growth and P nutrition is related to AMF colonization and diversity of AMF communities in a continuous P-unfertilized cover cropping system. Thus, we investigated the impact of P-application and cover cropping on the interaction among AMF colonization, AMF diversity in soybean roots, soybean growth and P nutrition under a five-year P-unfertilized crop rotation. In this study, we established three cover crop systems (wheat, red clover and oilseed rape) or bare fallow in rotation with soybean. The P-application rates before the seeding of soybeans were 52.5 and 157.5 kg ha -1 in 2014 and 2015, respectively. We measured AMF colonization in soybean roots, soybean growth parameters such as aboveground plant biomass, P uptake at the flowering stage and grain yields at the maturity stage in both years. AMF community structure in soybean roots was characterized by specific amplification of small subunit rDNA. The increase in the root colonization at the flowering stage was small as a result of P-application. Cover cropping did not affect the aboveground biomass and P uptake of soybean in both years, but the P-application had positive effects on the soybean performance such as plant P uptake, biomass and grain yield in 2015. AMF communities colonizing soybean roots were also significantly influenced by P-application throughout the two years. Moreover, the diversity of AMF communities in roots was significantly influenced by P-application and cover cropping in both years, and was positively correlated with the soybean biomass, P uptake and grain yield throughout the two years. Our results indicated that P-application rather than cover cropping may be a key factor for improving soybean growth performance with respect to AMF diversity in P-limited cover cropping systems. Additionally, AMF diversity in roots can potentially contribute to soybean P nutrition even in the P-fertilized cover crop rotational system. Therefore, further investigation into the interaction of AMF diversity, P-application and cover cropping is required for the development of more effective P management practices on soybean growth performance.

Can phosphorus application and cover cropping alter arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities and soybean performance after a five-year phosphorus-unfertilized crop rotational system?

PubMed Central

Sato, Ryohei; Serizawa, Ayu; Takahashi, Yuichi; Gunji, Kento; Tatewaki, Yuya; Isobe, Katsunori

2018-01-01

Background Understanding diversity of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) is important for optimizing their role for phosphorus (P) nutrition of soybeans (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) in P-limited soils. However, it is not clear how soybean growth and P nutrition is related to AMF colonization and diversity of AMF communities in a continuous P-unfertilized cover cropping system. Thus, we investigated the impact of P-application and cover cropping on the interaction among AMF colonization, AMF diversity in soybean roots, soybean growth and P nutrition under a five-year P-unfertilized crop rotation. Methods In this study, we established three cover crop systems (wheat, red clover and oilseed rape) or bare fallow in rotation with soybean. The P-application rates before the seeding of soybeans were 52.5 and 157.5 kg ha−1 in 2014 and 2015, respectively. We measured AMF colonization in soybean roots, soybean growth parameters such as aboveground plant biomass, P uptake at the flowering stage and grain yields at the maturity stage in both years. AMF community structure in soybean roots was characterized by specific amplification of small subunit rDNA. Results The increase in the root colonization at the flowering stage was small as a result of P-application. Cover cropping did not affect the aboveground biomass and P uptake of soybean in both years, but the P-application had positive effects on the soybean performance such as plant P uptake, biomass and grain yield in 2015. AMF communities colonizing soybean roots were also significantly influenced by P-application throughout the two years. Moreover, the diversity of AMF communities in roots was significantly influenced by P-application and cover cropping in both years, and was positively correlated with the soybean biomass, P uptake and grain yield throughout the two years. Discussion Our results indicated that P-application rather than cover cropping may be a key factor for improving soybean growth performance with respect to AMF diversity in P-limited cover cropping systems. Additionally, AMF diversity in roots can potentially contribute to soybean P nutrition even in the P-fertilized cover crop rotational system. Therefore, further investigation into the interaction of AMF diversity, P-application and cover cropping is required for the development of more effective P management practices on soybean growth performance. PMID:29682413

Evaluating the Impacts of an Agricultural Water Market in the Guadalupe River Basin, Texas: An Agent-based Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, E.; Cai, X.; Minsker, B. S.

2014-12-01

Agriculture comprises about 80 percent of the total water consumption in the US. Under conditions of water shortage and fully committed water rights, market-based water allocations could be promising instruments for agricultural water redistribution from marginally profitable areas to more profitable ones. Previous studies on water market have mainly focused on theoretical or statistical analysis. However, how water users' heterogeneous physical attributes and decision rules about water use and water right trading will affect water market efficiency has been less addressed. In this study, we developed an agent-based model to evaluate the benefits of an agricultural water market in the Guadalupe River Basin during drought events. Agricultural agents with different attributes (i.e., soil type for crops, annual water diversion permit and precipitation) are defined to simulate the dynamic feedback between water availability, irrigation demand and water trading activity. Diversified crop irrigation rules and water bidding rules are tested in terms of crop yield, agricultural profit, and water-use efficiency. The model was coupled with a real-time hydrologic model and run under different water scarcity scenarios. Preliminary results indicate that an agricultural water market is capable of increasing crop yield, agricultural profit, and water-use efficiency. This capability is more significant under moderate drought scenarios than in mild and severe drought scenarios. The water market mechanism also increases agricultural resilience to climate uncertainty by reducing crop yield variance in drought events. The challenges of implementing an agricultural water market under climate uncertainty are also discussed.

Quantifying yield gaps in wheat production in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schierhorn, Florian; Faramarzi, Monireh; Prishchepov, Alexander V.; Koch, Friedrich J.; Müller, Daniel

2014-08-01

Crop yields must increase substantially to meet the increasing demands for agricultural products. Crop yield increases are particularly important for Russia because low crop yields prevail across Russia’s widespread and fertile land resources. However, reliable data are lacking regarding the spatial distribution of potential yields in Russia, which can be used to determine yield gaps. We used a crop growth model to determine the yield potentials and yield gaps of winter and spring wheat at the provincial level across European Russia. We modeled the annual yield potentials from 1995 to 2006 with optimal nitrogen supplies for both rainfed and irrigated conditions. Overall, the results suggest yield gaps of 1.51-2.10 t ha-1, or 44-52% of the yield potential under rainfed conditions. Under irrigated conditions, yield gaps of 3.14-3.30 t ha-1, or 62-63% of the yield potential, were observed. However, recurring droughts cause large fluctuations in yield potentials under rainfed conditions, even when the nitrogen supply is optimal, particularly in the highly fertile black soil areas of southern European Russia. The highest yield gaps (up to 4 t ha-1) under irrigated conditions were detected in the steppe areas in southeastern European Russia along the border of Kazakhstan. Improving the nutrient and water supply and using crop breeds that are adapted to the frequent drought conditions are important for reducing yield gaps in European Russia. Our regional assessment helps inform policy and agricultural investors and prioritize research that aims to increase crop production in this important region for global agricultural markets.

Monitoring Crop Yield in USA Using a Satellite-Based Climate-Variability Impact Index

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Ping; Anderson, Bruce; Tan, Bin; Barlow, Mathew; Myneni, Ranga

2011-01-01

A quantitative index is applied to monitor crop growth and predict agricultural yield in continental USA. The Climate-Variability Impact Index (CVII), defined as the monthly contribution to overall anomalies in growth during a given year, is derived from 1-km MODIS Leaf Area Index. The growing-season integrated CVII can provide an estimate of the fractional change in overall growth during a given year. In turn these estimates can provide fine-scale and aggregated information on yield for various crops. Trained from historical records of crop production, a statistical model is used to produce crop yield during the growing season based upon the strong positive relationship between crop yield and the CVII. By examining the model prediction as a function of time, it is possible to determine when the in-season predictive capability plateaus and which months provide the greatest predictive capacity.

Crop yield response to increasing biochar rates

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The benefit or detriment to crop yield from biochar application varies with biochar type/rate, soil, crop, or climate. The objective of this research was to identify yield response of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.), corn (Zea mayes L.), and peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) to hardwood biochar applied at...

Simulating large-scale crop yield by using perturbed-parameter ensemble method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iizumi, T.; Yokozawa, M.; Sakurai, G.; Nishimori, M.

2010-12-01

Toshichika Iizumi, Masayuki Yokozawa, Gen Sakurai, Motoki Nishimori Agro-Meteorology Division, National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, Japan Abstract One of concerning issues of food security under changing climate is to predict the inter-annual variation of crop production induced by climate extremes and modulated climate. To secure food supply for growing world population, methodology that can accurately predict crop yield on a large scale is needed. However, for developing a process-based large-scale crop model with a scale of general circulation models (GCMs), 100 km in latitude and longitude, researchers encounter the difficulties in spatial heterogeneity of available information on crop production such as cultivated cultivars and management. This study proposed an ensemble-based simulation method that uses a process-based crop model and systematic parameter perturbation procedure, taking maize in U.S., China, and Brazil as examples. The crop model was developed modifying the fundamental structure of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to incorporate the effect of heat stress on yield. We called the new model PRYSBI: the Process-based Regional-scale Yield Simulator with Bayesian Inference. The posterior probability density function (PDF) of 17 parameters, which represents the crop- and grid-specific features of the crop and its uncertainty under given data, was estimated by the Bayesian inversion analysis. We then take 1500 ensemble members of simulated yield values based on the parameter sets sampled from the posterior PDF to describe yearly changes of the yield, i.e. perturbed-parameter ensemble method. The ensemble median for 27 years (1980-2006) was compared with the data aggregated from the county yield. On a country scale, the ensemble median of the simulated yield showed a good correspondence with the reported yield: the Pearson’s correlation coefficient is over 0.6 for all countries. In contrast, on a grid scale, the correspondence is still high in most grids regardless of the countries. However, the model showed comparatively low reproducibility in the slope areas, such as around the Rocky Mountains in South Dakota, around the Great Xing'anling Mountains in Heilongjiang, and around the Brazilian Plateau. As there is a wide-ranging local climate conditions in the complex terrain, such as the slope of mountain, the GCM grid-scale weather inputs is likely one of major sources of error. The results of this study highlight the benefits of the perturbed-parameter ensemble method in simulating crop yield on a GCM grid scale: (1) the posterior PDF of parameter could quantify the uncertainty of parameter value of the crop model associated with the local crop production aspects; (2) the method can explicitly account for the uncertainty of parameter value in the crop model simulations; (3) the method achieve a Monte Carlo approximation of probability of sub-grid scale yield, accounting for the nonlinear response of crop yield to weather and management; (4) the method is therefore appropriate to aggregate the simulated sub-grid scale yields to a grid-scale yield and it may be a reason for high performance of the model in capturing inter-annual variation of yield.

Supporting Climatic Trends of Corn and Soybean Production in the USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, V.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Verdin, J. P.

2010-12-01

The United States of America (USA) is a major source of corn and soybeans, producing about 39 percent of the world’s corn and 50 percent of world’s soybean supply. The north central states, including parts of the Midwestern US and the Great Plains form what is commonly described as the “Corn Belt” and consist of the most productive grain growing region in the United States. Changes in climate, including precipitation and temperature, are being observed throughout the world, and the Corn Belt region of the US is not immune posing a potential threat to global food security. We conducted a retrospective analysis of observed climate variables and crop production statistics to evaluate if observed climatic trends are having a positive or negative effect on corn and soybean production in the US. We selected climate indices based on gridded daily precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature data from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for the period of 1920-2009 and for 13 states in the Corn Belt region. We used the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for different periods overlapping the important seasons for crop growths, such as the planting (April-May), grain-filling (June-August), and harvesting (September -October) seasons. We estimated the seasonal average of maximum and minimum daily temperatures to identify the historic trends and variability in air temperature during the key crop-growth seasons. Extreme warm temperatures can affect crop growth and yields adversely; therefore, cumulative maximum air temperature above the 90th percentiles (e.g. Cumulative Heat Index) was estimated for each growing period. We evaluated historic trends and variability of areal extents of severe or extreme droughts along with the areal extents facing the high cumulative heat stress. Our results showed that climatic extremes (e.g. droughts and heat stress) that occurred during the period of June - August (JJA), affected the yields of corn and soybeans most severely. High moisture and low heat stress during the JJA period favored crop yields, while low moisture and high heat conditions during the planting season (April-May) increased yields. Results also indicated that this part of the US is trending towards lower heat stress and drought extents, and higher moisture conditions during the JJA period. Therefore, in future, if the present trends persist, we expect the climate will more supportive of increased corn and soybean yields.

Empirically Estimating the Potential for Farm-Level Adaptation to Climate Change in Western European Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, F. C.; Lobell, D. B.

2013-12-01

Agriculture is one of the economic sectors most exposed to climate change and estimating the sensitivity of food production to these changes is critical for determining the severity of climate change impacts and for informing both adaptation and mitigation policy. While climate change might have adverse effects in many areas, it has long been recognized that farmers have a suite of adaptation options at their disposal including, inter alia, changing planting date, varieties, crops, or the mix and quantity of inputs applied. These adaptations may significantly reduce the adverse impacts of climate change but the potential effectiveness of these options and the speed with which farmers will adopt them remain uncertain. We estimate the sensitivity of crop yields and farm profits in western Europe to climate change with and without the adoption of on-farm adaptations. We use cross-sectional variation across farms to define the long-run response function that includes adaptation and inter-annual variation within farms to define the short-run response function without adaptation. The difference between these can be interpreted as the potential for adaptation. We find that future warming will have a large adverse impact on wheat and barley yields and that adaptation will only be able to mitigate a small fraction of this. Maize, oilseed and sugarbeet yields are more modestly affected and adaptation is more effective for these crops. Farm profits could increase slightly under moderate amounts of warming if adaptations are adopted but will decline in the absence of adaptation. A decomposition of variance gives the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in projections of climate change impacts. We find that in most cases uncertainty over future adaptation pathways (whether farmers will or will not adopt beneficial adaptations) is the most important source of uncertainty in projecting the effect of temperature changes on crop yields and farm profits. This source of uncertainty dominates both uncertainty over temperature projections (climate uncertainty) and uncertainty over how sensitive crops or profits are to changes in temperature (response uncertainty). Therefore, constraining how quickly farmers are likely to adapt will be essential for improving our understanding of how climate change will affect food production over the next few decades.

Cosmic ray soil moisture observing systems comos in cap fields at El Reno Oklahoma

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil water content (SWC) partitions rainfall into runoff and infiltration, modulates surface and atmospheric exchanges of water and energy, affects plant growth and crop yields, and impacts chemical and biological activities of soil, among other things. Thus, SWC, especially over large scales, is a...

Vermicompost affects soil properties and spinach growth, physiology, and nutritional value

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The use of vermicompost to improve soil fertility and enhance crop yield has gained considerable momentum due to its contribution to agroecological sustainability. Short-term (35-days after transplanting) effects of vermicompost, applied either as a soil amendment (5% and 10%, v/v), or a drench (40 ...

Evaluation of maize inbred lines for resistance to pre-harvest aflatoxin and fumonisin contamination in the field

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Two important mycotoxins, aflatoxin and fumonisin, are among the most potent naturally occurring carcinogens, contaminating maize (Zea mays L.) and affecting the crop yield and quality. Resistance of maize to pre-harvest mycotoxin contamination, specifically aflatoxin produced by Aspergillus flavus ...

Application of genomics-assisted breeding for generation of climate resilient crops: progress and prospects

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change affects agricultural productivity worldwide. Increased prices of food commodities are the initial indication of drastic edible yield loss, which is expected to increase further due to global warming. This situation has compelled plant scientists to develop climate change-resilient cro...

Genome-wide association mapping of flowering time and maturity dates in early mature soybean germplasm

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soybean (Glycine max L. Merr.) is a photoperiod-sensitive and short-day major crop grown worldwide. Days to flowering (DTF) and maturity (DTM) are two traits affecting soybean adaptability and yield. Some genes conditioning soybean flowering and maturity have been recently characterized. However, ...

E-precision agriculture for small scale cash crops in Tobasa regency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putra Simanjuntak, Panca; Tiurniari Napitupulu, Pangeran; Pratama Silalahi, Soni; Kisno; Pasaribu, Norlina; Valešová, Libuše

2017-09-01

Cash crop is a promising sector in Tobasa regency; however, the trend showed a negative change of the cash crop production in. This research aims to develop an application which is based on Arduino for watering and fertilizing corn land. The result of using e-precision agriculture based on embedded system is 100% higher than the conventional one and the risk of harvesting failure using the embedded system decreased to 50%. Embedded system in this study acquired critical environment measurements which at last affected the yield raising and risk reduction. As the result, the use of e-precision agriculture provided a framework to be used by different stakeholders to implement e-agriculture platform that supports marketing of agricultural production since the system is proven to save the material and time which finally reduces the risk of harvesting failure and increases the yield. In other words, the system is able to economize the use of water and fertilizer on a small corn land. The system will be developed for more efficiency in material loss and the mobile-based application development to reach sustainable rural development particularly for cash-crop farmers.

Heavy metals effects on forage crops yields and estimation of elements accumulation in plants as affected by soil.

PubMed

Grytsyuk, N; Arapis, G; Perepelyatnikova, L; Ivanova, T; Vynograds'ka, V

2006-02-01

Heavy metals (Cu, Cd, Pb, Zn) effect on the productivity of forage crops (clover and perennial cereal grasses) and their accumulation in plants, depending on the concentration of these elements in a soil, has been studied in micro-field experiments on three types of soil. The principle objective was to determine regularities of heavy metals migration in a soil-plant system aiming the estimation of permissible levels of heavy metals content in soils with the following elaboration of methods, which regulate the toxicants transfer to plants. Methods of field experiments, agrochemical and atomic absorption analysis were used. Results were statistically treated by Statistica 6.0, S-Plus 6. Experimental results have shown that the intensity of heavy metals accumulation in plants depends on the type of the soil, the species of plants, the physicochemical properties of heavy metals and their content in the soil. Logarithmic interdependency of heavy metals concentration in soils and their accumulation in plants is suggested. However, the strong correlation between the different heavy metals concentrations in the various soils and the yield of crops was not observed. Toxicants accumulation in crops decreased in time.

Global Synthesis of Drought Effects on Food Legume Production

PubMed Central

Daryanto, Stefani; Wang, Lixin; Jacinthe, Pierre-André

2015-01-01

Food legume crops play important roles in conservation farming systems and contribute to food security in the developing world. However, in many regions of the world, their production has been adversely affected by drought. Although water scarcity is a severe abiotic constraint of legume crops productivity, it remains unclear how the effects of drought co-vary with legume species, soil texture, agroclimatic region, and drought timing. To address these uncertainties, we collected literature data between 1980 and 2014 that reported monoculture legume yield responses to drought under field conditions, and analyzed this data set using meta-analysis techniques. Our results showed that the amount of water reduction was positively related with yield reduction, but the extent of the impact varied with legume species and the phenological state during which drought occurred. Overall, lentil (Lens culinaris), groundnut (Arachis hypogaea), and pigeon pea (Cajanus cajan) were found to experience lower drought-induced yield reduction compared to legumes such as cowpea (Vigna unguiculata) and green gram (Vigna radiate). Yield reduction was generally greater when legumes experienced drought during their reproductive stage compared to during their vegetative stage. Legumes grown in soil with medium texture also exhibited greater yield reduction compared to those planted on soil of either coarse or fine texture. In contrast, regions and their associated climatic factors did not significantly affect legume yield reduction. In the face of changing climate, our study provides useful information for agricultural planning and research directions for development of drought-resistant legume species to improve adaptation and resilience of agricultural systems in the drought-prone regions of the world. PMID:26061704

Tuber yield and quality characteristics of potatoes for off-season crops in a Mediterranean environment.

PubMed

Ierna, Anita

2010-01-15

There is little research on evaluating the compatibility of potatoes for double cropping in southern Italy. The aim of this investigation was to assess tuber yield and some qualitative traits of tubers such as skin colour, tuber dry matter content and tuber nitrate content, both in winter-spring and in summer-autumn crops, as influenced by genotype and harvest time. Yield, skin colour and dry matter content of tubers were higher in the winter-spring crop than in the summer-autumn crop, attributable to the advantageous lag time in spring between solar radiation and temperatures and the disadvantageous lag in autumn. Spunta and Arinda performed well within each crop season, whereas Ninfa showed an important yield loss in autumn. In both off-season crops, delaying tuber harvest until leaf senescence increased yield and improved quality attributes such as tuber dry matter content and skin colour, whereas nitrate contents significantly decreased in the winter-spring crop and increased in the summer-autumn crop. Ninfa showed less tendency than Arinda and Spunta to accumulate nitrate in tubers in both off-season crops. It might be advantageous to examine in further research which mechanisms sustain compatibility to the autumn and assess other quality characteristics for the fresh market in the contrasting climatic conditions of the two off-season crops. Copyright (c) 2009 Society of Chemical Industry.

Effect of crop residues on soil properties, plant growth, and crop yield. Agronomy Farm, Lincoln, Nebraska

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Power, J.F.

1981-01-01

Progress is reported in a study designed to evaluate the effects of quantity of crop residues left on soil surface on soil properties, plant growth, and crop yield and to determine the effects of quantity of surface residues upon soil, fertilizer, and residue N transformations, availability, and efficiency of use. In a dryland corn-sorghum-soybean rotation produced on a clay loam, residues remaining after harvest of the previous crop were removed and respread on plots at rates of 0, 0.5, 1.0, and 1.5 times the quantity of residues originally present. The above crops were planted in four replications the following springmore » without tillage, after broadcasting 50 kg N/ha as ammonium nitrate. In 1980, /sup 15/N-depleted NH/sub 4/NO/sub 3/ was applied to half of each plot. After harvest, crop residues produced on the half-plot receiving the N-isotope were transferred to the half-plot receiving regular fertilizer, and visa versa. In 1981, /sup 15/N-depleted NH/sub 4/NO/sub 3/ was applied to half of each plot again, except at right angles to the fertilizer applied in 1980. After planting each year, thermocouples were installed in each plot and soil temperatures were recorded. Also access tubes were installed in all plots and soil water content was measured to the 150 cm soil depth periodically during the growing season. Dry matter production and N uptake by the plant tissue was measured periodically during the growing season and at maturity. Additional measurements taken included leaf area index, xylem water potentials, and soil microbial populations. Data are presented on corn and soybean production characteristics as affected by rate of crop residue on soil surface. Results are also given on leaf area index (LAI) and dry matter production of corn and soybeans as affected by surface residue rate. Total N content of corn and soybean plant materials and surface residues, and total and inorganic soil N (1980) are reported.« less

Sensitivity of simulated maize crop yields to regional climate in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S.; Myoung, B.; Stack, D.; Kim, J.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kafatos, M.

2013-12-01

The sensitivity of maize yield to the regional climate in the Southwestern United States (SW US) has been investigated by using a crop-yield simulation model (APSIM) in conjunction with meteorological forcings (daily minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, and radiation) from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. The primary focus of this study is to look at the effects of interannual variations of atmospheric components on the crop productivity in the SW US over the 21-year period (1991 to 2011). First of all, characteristics and performance of APSIM was examined by comparing simulated maize yields with observed yields from United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the leaf-area index (LAI) from MODIS satellite data. Comparisons of the simulated maize yield with the available observations show that the crop model can reasonably reproduce observed maize yields. Sensitivity tests were performed to assess the relative contribution of each climate driver to regional crop yield. Sensitivity experiments show that potential crop production responds nonlinearly to climate drivers and the yield sensitivity varied among geographical locations depending on their mean climates. Lastly, a detailed analysis of both the spatial and temporal variations of each climate driver in the regions where maize is actually grown in three states (CA, AZ, and NV) in the SW US was performed.

Agricultural Management Practices Explain Variation in Global Yield Gaps of Major Crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, N. D.; Gerber, J. S.; Ray, D. K.; Ramankutty, N.; Foley, J. A.

2010-12-01

The continued expansion and intensification of agriculture are key drivers of global environmental change. Meeting a doubling of food demand in the next half-century will further induce environmental change, requiring either large cropland expansion into carbon- and biodiversity-rich tropical forests or increasing yields on existing croplands. Closing the “yield gaps” between the most and least productive farmers on current agricultural lands is a necessary and major step towards preserving natural ecosystems and meeting future food demand. Here we use global climate, soils, and cropland datasets to quantify yield gaps for major crops using equal-area climate analogs. Consistent with previous studies, we find large yield gaps for many crops in Eastern Europe, tropical Africa, and parts of Mexico. To analyze the drivers of yield gaps, we collected sub-national agricultural management data and built a global dataset of fertilizer application rates for over 160 crops. We constructed empirical crop yield models for each climate analog using the global management information for 17 major crops. We find that our climate-specific models explain a substantial amount of the global variation in yields. These models could be widely applied to identify management changes needed to close yield gaps, analyze the environmental impacts of agricultural intensification, and identify climate change adaptation techniques.

Wildlife-friendly farming increases crop yield: evidence for ecological intensification

PubMed Central

Pywell, Richard F.; Heard, Matthew S.; Woodcock, Ben A.; Hinsley, Shelley; Ridding, Lucy; Nowakowski, Marek; Bullock, James M.

2015-01-01

Ecological intensification has been promoted as a means to achieve environmentally sustainable increases in crop yields by enhancing ecosystem functions that regulate and support production. There is, however, little direct evidence of yield benefits from ecological intensification on commercial farms growing globally important foodstuffs (grains, oilseeds and pulses). We replicated two treatments removing 3 or 8% of land at the field edge from production to create wildlife habitat in 50–60 ha patches over a 900 ha commercial arable farm in central England, and compared these to a business as usual control (no land removed). In the control fields, crop yields were reduced by as much as 38% at the field edge. Habitat creation in these lower yielding areas led to increased yield in the cropped areas of the fields, and this positive effect became more pronounced over 6 years. As a consequence, yields at the field scale were maintained—and, indeed, enhanced for some crops—despite the loss of cropland for habitat creation. These results suggested that over a 5-year crop rotation, there would be no adverse impact on overall yield in terms of monetary value or nutritional energy. This study provides a clear demonstration that wildlife-friendly management which supports ecosystem services is compatible with, and can even increase, crop yields. PMID:26423846

7 CFR 400.651 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... unadjusted transitional yields and dividing the sum by the number of yields contained in the database, which will always contain at least four yields. The database may contain up to 10 consecutive crop years of... catastrophic risk protection. Crop of economic significance. A crop that has either contributed in the previous...

7 CFR 400.651 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... unadjusted transitional yields and dividing the sum by the number of yields contained in the database, which will always contain at least four yields. The database may contain up to 10 consecutive crop years of... catastrophic risk protection. Crop of economic significance. A crop that has either contributed in the previous...

7 CFR 400.651 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... unadjusted transitional yields and dividing the sum by the number of yields contained in the database, which will always contain at least four yields. The database may contain up to 10 consecutive crop years of... catastrophic risk protection. Crop of economic significance. A crop that has either contributed in the previous...

7 CFR 400.651 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... unadjusted transitional yields and dividing the sum by the number of yields contained in the database, which will always contain at least four yields. The database may contain up to 10 consecutive crop years of... catastrophic risk protection. Crop of economic significance. A crop that has either contributed in the previous...

7 CFR 400.651 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... unadjusted transitional yields and dividing the sum by the number of yields contained in the database, which will always contain at least four yields. The database may contain up to 10 consecutive crop years of... catastrophic risk protection. Crop of economic significance. A crop that has either contributed in the previous...

What's holding us back? Raising the alfalfa yield bar

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Measuring yield of commodity crops is easy – weight and moisture content are determined on delivery. Consequently, reports of production or yield for grain crops can be made reliably to the agencies that track crop production, such as the USDA-National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). The s...

Probabilistic estimates of drought impacts on agricultural production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madadgar, Shahrbanou; AghaKouchak, Amir; Farahmand, Alireza; Davis, Steven J.

2017-08-01

Increases in the severity and frequency of drought in a warming climate may negatively impact agricultural production and food security. Unlike previous studies that have estimated agricultural impacts of climate condition using single-crop yield distributions, we develop a multivariate probabilistic model that uses projected climatic conditions (e.g., precipitation amount or soil moisture) throughout a growing season to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields. We demonstrate the model by an analysis of the historical period 1980-2012, including the Millennium Drought in Australia (2001-2009). We find that precipitation and soil moisture deficit in dry growing seasons reduced the average annual yield of the five largest crops in Australia (wheat, broad beans, canola, lupine, and barley) by 25-45% relative to the wet growing seasons. Our model can thus produce region- and crop-specific agricultural sensitivities to climate conditions and variability. Probabilistic estimates of yield may help decision-makers in government and business to quantitatively assess the vulnerability of agriculture to climate variations. We develop a multivariate probabilistic model that uses precipitation to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields. The proposed model shows how the probability distribution of crop yield changes in response to droughts. During Australia's Millennium Drought precipitation and soil moisture deficit reduced the average annual yield of the five largest crops.

African crop yield reductions due to increasingly unbalanced Nitrogen and Phosphorus consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Velde, Marijn; Folberth, Christian; Balkovič, Juraj; Ciais, Philippe; Fritz, Steffen; Janssens, Ivan A.; Obersteiner, Michael; See, Linda; Skalský, Rastislav; Xiong, Wei; Peñuealas, Josep

2014-05-01

The impact of soil nutrient depletion on crop production has been known for decades, but robust assessments of the impact of increasingly unbalanced nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) application rates on crop production are lacking. Here, we use crop response functions based on 741 FAO maize crop trials and EPIC crop modeling across Africa to examine maize yield deficits resulting from unbalanced N:P applications under low, medium, and high input scenarios, for past (1975), current, and future N:P mass ratios of respectively, 1:0.29, 1:0.15, and 1:0.05. At low N inputs (10 kg/ha), current yield deficits amount to 10% but will increase up to 27% under the assumed future N:P ratio, while at medium N inputs (50 kg N/ha), future yield losses could amount to over 40%. The EPIC crop model was then used to simulate maize yields across Africa. The model results showed relative median future yield reductions at low N inputs of 40%, and 50% at medium and high inputs, albeit with large spatial variability. Dominant low-quality soils such as Ferralsols, which are strongly adsorbing P, and Arenosols with a low nutrient retention capacity, are associated with a strong yield decline, although Arenosols show very variable crop yield losses at low inputs. Optimal N:P ratios, i.e. those where the lowest amount of applied P produces the highest yield (given N input) where calculated with EPIC to be as low as 1:0.5. Finally, we estimated the additional P required given current N inputs, and given N inputs that would allow Africa to close yield gaps (ca. 70%). At current N inputs, P consumption would have to increase 2.3-fold to be optimal, and to increase 11.7-fold to close yield gaps. The P demand to overcome these yield deficits would provide a significant additional pressure on current global extraction of P resources.

Land Use, Yield and Quality Changes of Minor Field Crops: Is There Superseded Potential to Be Reinvented in Northern Europe?

PubMed

Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo; Jauhiainen, Lauri; Lehtonen, Heikki

2016-01-01

Diversification of agriculture was one of the strengthened aims of the greening payment of European Agricultural Policy (CAP) as diversification provides numerous ecosystems services compared to cereal-intensive crop rotations. This study focuses on current minor crops in Finland that have potential for expanded production and considers changes in their cropping areas, yield trends, breeding gains, roles in crop rotations and potential for improving resilience. Long-term datasets of Natural Resources Institute Finland and farmers' land use data from the Agency of Rural Affairs were used to analyze the above-mentioned trends and changes. The role of minor crops in rotations declined when early and late CAP periods were compared and that of cereal monocultures strengthened. Genetic yield potentials of minor crops have increased as also genetic improvements in quality traits, although some typical trade-offs with improved yields have also appeared. However, the gap between potential and attained yields has expanded, depending on the minor crop, as national yield trends have either stagnated or declined. When comparing genetic improvements of minor crops to those of the emerging major crop, spring wheat, breeding achievements in minor crops were lower. It was evident that the current agricultural policies in the prevailing market and the price environment have not encouraged cultivation of minor crops but further strengthened the role of cereal monocultures. We suggest optimization of agricultural land use, which is a core element of sustainable intensification, as a future means to couple long-term environmental sustainability with better success in economic profitability and social acceptability. This calls for development of effective policy instruments to support farmer's diversification actions.

Land Use, Yield and Quality Changes of Minor Field Crops: Is There Superseded Potential to Be Reinvented in Northern Europe?

PubMed Central

Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo; Jauhiainen, Lauri; Lehtonen, Heikki

2016-01-01

Diversification of agriculture was one of the strengthened aims of the greening payment of European Agricultural Policy (CAP) as diversification provides numerous ecosystems services compared to cereal-intensive crop rotations. This study focuses on current minor crops in Finland that have potential for expanded production and considers changes in their cropping areas, yield trends, breeding gains, roles in crop rotations and potential for improving resilience. Long-term datasets of Natural Resources Institute Finland and farmers’ land use data from the Agency of Rural Affairs were used to analyze the above-mentioned trends and changes. The role of minor crops in rotations declined when early and late CAP periods were compared and that of cereal monocultures strengthened. Genetic yield potentials of minor crops have increased as also genetic improvements in quality traits, although some typical trade-offs with improved yields have also appeared. However, the gap between potential and attained yields has expanded, depending on the minor crop, as national yield trends have either stagnated or declined. When comparing genetic improvements of minor crops to those of the emerging major crop, spring wheat, breeding achievements in minor crops were lower. It was evident that the current agricultural policies in the prevailing market and the price environment have not encouraged cultivation of minor crops but further strengthened the role of cereal monocultures. We suggest optimization of agricultural land use, which is a core element of sustainable intensification, as a future means to couple long-term environmental sustainability with better success in economic profitability and social acceptability. This calls for development of effective policy instruments to support farmer’s diversification actions. PMID:27870865

Could Crop Height Affect the Wind Resource at Agriculturally Productive Wind Farm Sites?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanderwende, Brian; Lundquist, Julie K.

2016-03-01

The collocation of cropland and wind turbines in the US Midwest region introduces complex meteorological interactions that could influence both agriculture and wind-power production. Crop management practices may affect the wind resource through alterations of land-surface properties. We use the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model to estimate the impact of crop height variations on the wind resource in the presence of a large turbine array. A hypothetical wind farm consisting of 121 1.8-MW turbines is represented using the WRF model wind-farm parametrization. We represent the impact of selecting soybeans rather than maize by altering the aerodynamic roughness length in a region approximately 65 times larger than that occupied by the turbine array. Roughness lengths of 0.1 and 0.25 m represent the mature soy crop and a mature maize crop, respectively. In all but the most stable atmospheric conditions, statistically significant hub-height wind-speed increases and rotor-layer wind-shear reductions result from switching from maize to soybeans. Based on simulations for the entire month of August 2013, wind-farm energy output increases by 14 %, which would yield a significant monetary gain. Further investigation is required to determine the optimal size, shape, and crop height of the roughness modification to maximize the economic benefit and minimize the cost of such crop-management practices. These considerations must be balanced by other influences on crop choice such as soil requirements and commodity prices.

Could crop height affect the wind resource at agriculturally productive wind farm sites?

DOE PAGES

Vanderwende, Brian; Lundquist, Julie K.

2015-11-07

The collocation of cropland and wind turbines in the US Midwest region introduces complex meteorological interactions that could influence both agriculture and wind-power production. Crop management practices may affect the wind resource through alterations of land-surface properties. We use the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model to estimate the impact of crop height variations on the wind resource in the presence of a large turbine array. A hypothetical wind farm consisting of 121 1.8-MW turbines is represented using the WRF model wind-farm parametrization. We represent the impact of selecting soybeans rather than maize by altering the aerodynamic roughness length inmore » a region approximately 65 times larger than that occupied by the turbine array. Roughness lengths of 0.1 and 0.25 m represent the mature soy crop and a mature maize crop, respectively. In all but the most stable atmospheric conditions, statistically significant hub-height wind-speed increases and rotor-layer wind-shear reductions result from switching from maize to soybeans. Based on simulations for the entire month of August 2013, wind-farm energy output increases by 14 %, which would yield a significant monetary gain. Further investigation is required to determine the optimal size, shape, and crop height of the roughness modification to maximize the economic benefit and minimize the cost of such crop-management practices. As a result, these considerations must be balanced by other influences on crop choice such as soil requirements and commodity prices.« less

Could crop height affect the wind resource at agriculturally productive wind farm sites?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vanderwende, Brian; Lundquist, Julie K.

The collocation of cropland and wind turbines in the US Midwest region introduces complex meteorological interactions that could influence both agriculture and wind-power production. Crop management practices may affect the wind resource through alterations of land-surface properties. We use the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model to estimate the impact of crop height variations on the wind resource in the presence of a large turbine array. A hypothetical wind farm consisting of 121 1.8-MW turbines is represented using the WRF model wind-farm parametrization. We represent the impact of selecting soybeans rather than maize by altering the aerodynamic roughness length inmore » a region approximately 65 times larger than that occupied by the turbine array. Roughness lengths of 0.1 and 0.25 m represent the mature soy crop and a mature maize crop, respectively. In all but the most stable atmospheric conditions, statistically significant hub-height wind-speed increases and rotor-layer wind-shear reductions result from switching from maize to soybeans. Based on simulations for the entire month of August 2013, wind-farm energy output increases by 14 %, which would yield a significant monetary gain. Further investigation is required to determine the optimal size, shape, and crop height of the roughness modification to maximize the economic benefit and minimize the cost of such crop-management practices. As a result, these considerations must be balanced by other influences on crop choice such as soil requirements and commodity prices.« less

Hyperspectral sensing to detect the impact of herbicide drift on cotton growth and yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suarez, L. A.; Apan, A.; Werth, J.

2016-10-01

Yield loss in crops is often associated with plant disease or external factors such as environment, water supply and nutrient availability. Improper agricultural practices can also introduce risks into the equation. Herbicide drift can be a combination of improper practices and environmental conditions which can create a potential yield loss. As traditional assessment of plant damage is often imprecise and time consuming, the ability of remote and proximal sensing techniques to monitor various bio-chemical alterations in the plant may offer a faster, non-destructive and reliable approach to predict yield loss caused by herbicide drift. This paper examines the prediction capabilities of partial least squares regression (PLS-R) models for estimating yield. Models were constructed with hyperspectral data of a cotton crop sprayed with three simulated doses of the phenoxy herbicide 2,4-D at three different growth stages. Fibre quality, photosynthesis, conductance, and two main hormones, indole acetic acid (IAA) and abscisic acid (ABA) were also analysed. Except for fibre quality and ABA, Spearman correlations have shown that these variables were highly affected by the chemical. Four PLS-R models for predicting yield were developed according to four timings of data collection: 2, 7, 14 and 28 days after the exposure (DAE). As indicated by the model performance, the analysis revealed that 7 DAE was the best time for data collection purposes (RMSEP = 2.6 and R2 = 0.88), followed by 28 DAE (RMSEP = 3.2 and R2 = 0.84). In summary, the results of this study show that it is possible to accurately predict yield after a simulated herbicide drift of 2,4-D on a cotton crop, through the analysis of hyperspectral data, thereby providing a reliable, effective and non-destructive alternative based on the internal response of the cotton leaves.

Climate Change and ENSO Effects on Southeastern US Climate Patterns and Maize Yield.

PubMed

Mourtzinis, Spyridon; Ortiz, Brenda V; Damianidis, Damianos

2016-07-19

Climate change has a strong influence on weather patterns and significantly affects crop yields globally. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a strong influence on the U.S. climate and is related to agricultural production variability. ENSO effects are location-specific and in southeastern U.S. strongly connect with climate variability. When combined with climate change, the effects on growing season climate patterns and crop yields might be greater than expected. In our study, historical monthly precipitation and temperature data were coupled with non-irrigated maize yield data (33-43 years depending on the location) to show a potential yield suppression of ~15% for one °C increase in southeastern U.S. growing season maximum temperature. Yield suppression ranged between -25 and -2% among locations suppressing the southeastern U.S. average yield trend since 1981 by 17 kg ha(-1)year(-1) (~25%), mainly due to year-to-year June temperature anomalies. Yields varied among ENSO phases from 1971-2013, with greater yields observed during El Niño phase. During La Niña years, maximum June temperatures were higher than Neutral and El Niño, whereas June precipitation was lower than El Niño years. Our data highlight the importance of developing location-specific adaptation strategies quantifying both, climate change and ENSO effects on month-specific growing season climate conditions.

National Variation in Crop Yield Production Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devineni, N.; Rising, J. A.

2017-12-01

A new multilevel model for yield prediction at the county scale using regional climate covariates is presented in this paper. A new crop specific water deficit index, growing degree days, extreme degree days, and time-trend as an approximation of technology improvements are used as predictors to estimate annual crop yields for each county from 1949 to 2009. Every county in the United States is allowed to have unique parameters describing how these weather predictors are related to yield outcomes. County-specific parameters are further modeled as varying according to climatic characteristics, allowing the prediction of parameters in regions where crops are not currently grown and into the future. The structural relationships between crop yield and regional climate as well as trends are estimated simultaneously. All counties are modeled in a single multilevel model with partial pooling to automatically group and reduce estimation uncertainties. The model captures up to 60% of the variability in crop yields after removing the effect of technology, does well in out of sample predictions and is useful in relating the climate responses to local bioclimatic factors. We apply the predicted growing models in a cost-benefit analysis to identify the most economically productive crop in each county.

Effect of a Terminated Cover Crop and Aldicarb on Cotton Yield and Meloidogyne incognita Population Density

PubMed Central

Wheeler, T. A.; Leser, J. F.; Keeling, J. W.; Mullinix, B.

2008-01-01

Terminated small grain cover crops are valuable in light textured soils to reduce wind and rain erosion and for protection of young cotton seedlings. A three-year study was conducted to determine the impact of terminated small grain winter cover crops, which are hosts for Meloidogyne incognita, on cotton yield, root galling and nematode midseason population density. The small plot test consisted of the cover treatment as the main plots (winter fallow, oats, rye and wheat) and rate of aldicarb applied in-furrow at-plant (0, 0.59 and 0.84 kg a.i./ha) as subplots in a split-plot design with eight replications, arranged in a randomized complete block design. Roots of 10 cotton plants per plot were examined at approximately 35 days after planting. Root galling was affected by aldicarb rate (9.1, 3.8 and 3.4 galls/root system for 0, 0.59 and 0.84 kg aldicarb/ha), but not by cover crop. Soil samples were collected in mid-July and assayed for nematodes. The winter fallow plots had a lower density of M. incognita second-stage juveniles (J2) (transformed to Log10 (J2 + 1)/500 cm3 soil) than any of the cover crops (0.88, 1.58, 1.67 and 1.75 Log10(J2 + 1)/500 cm3 soil for winter fallow, oats, rye and wheat, respectively). There were also fewer M. incognita eggs at midseason in the winter fallow (3,512, 7,953, 8,262 and 11,392 eggs/500 cm3 soil for winter fallow, oats, rye and wheat, respectively). Yield (kg lint per ha) was increased by application of aldicarb (1,544, 1,710 and 1,697 for 0, 0.59 and 0.84 kg aldicarb/ha), but not by any cover crop treatments. These results were consistent over three years. The soil temperature at 15 cm depth, from when soils reached 18°C to termination of the grass cover crop, averaged 9,588, 7,274 and 1,639 centigrade hours (with a minimum threshold of 10°C), in 2005, 2006 and 2007, respectively. Under these conditions, potential reproduction of M. incognita on the cover crop did not result in a yield penalty. PMID:19259531

Effect of a Terminated Cover Crop and Aldicarb on Cotton Yield and Meloidogyne incognita Population Density.

PubMed

Wheeler, T A; Leser, J F; Keeling, J W; Mullinix, B

2008-06-01

Terminated small grain cover crops are valuable in light textured soils to reduce wind and rain erosion and for protection of young cotton seedlings. A three-year study was conducted to determine the impact of terminated small grain winter cover crops, which are hosts for Meloidogyne incognita, on cotton yield, root galling and nematode midseason population density. The small plot test consisted of the cover treatment as the main plots (winter fallow, oats, rye and wheat) and rate of aldicarb applied in-furrow at-plant (0, 0.59 and 0.84 kg a.i./ha) as subplots in a split-plot design with eight replications, arranged in a randomized complete block design. Roots of 10 cotton plants per plot were examined at approximately 35 days after planting. Root galling was affected by aldicarb rate (9.1, 3.8 and 3.4 galls/root system for 0, 0.59 and 0.84 kg aldicarb/ha), but not by cover crop. Soil samples were collected in mid-July and assayed for nematodes. The winter fallow plots had a lower density of M. incognita second-stage juveniles (J2) (transformed to Log(10) (J2 + 1)/500 cm(3) soil) than any of the cover crops (0.88, 1.58, 1.67 and 1.75 Log(10)(J2 + 1)/500 cm(3) soil for winter fallow, oats, rye and wheat, respectively). There were also fewer M. incognita eggs at midseason in the winter fallow (3,512, 7,953, 8,262 and 11,392 eggs/500 cm(3) soil for winter fallow, oats, rye and wheat, respectively). Yield (kg lint per ha) was increased by application of aldicarb (1,544, 1,710 and 1,697 for 0, 0.59 and 0.84 kg aldicarb/ha), but not by any cover crop treatments. These results were consistent over three years. The soil temperature at 15 cm depth, from when soils reached 18 degrees C to termination of the grass cover crop, averaged 9,588, 7,274 and 1,639 centigrade hours (with a minimum threshold of 10 degrees C), in 2005, 2006 and 2007, respectively. Under these conditions, potential reproduction of M. incognita on the cover crop did not result in a yield penalty.

Influence of poultry litter and double cropping on soybean yield

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Continuous cultivation of mono-cropping systems coupled with inorganic fertilizer consumption has led to a decline in soil fertility, negatively influencing crop yields. Poultry litter application and double cropping are two management practices that could be used with conservation tillage to increa...

Crop water productivity under increasing irrigation capacities in Romania. A spatially-explicit assessment of winter wheat and maize cropping systems in the southern lowlands of the country

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dogaru, Diana

2016-04-01

Improved water use efficiency in agriculture is a key issue in terms of sustainable management and consumption of water resources in the context of peoples' increasing food demands and preferences, economic growth and agricultural adaptation options to climate variability and change. Crop Water Productivity (CWP), defined as the ratio of yield (or value of harvested crop) to actual evapotranspiration or as the ratio of yield (or value of harvested crop) to volume of supplied irrigation water (Molden et al., 1998), is a useful indicator in the evaluation of water use efficiency and ultimately of cropland management, particularly in the case of regions affected by or prone to drought and where irrigation application is essential for achieving expected productions. The present study investigates the productivity of water in winter wheat and maize cropping systems in the Romanian Plain (49 594 sq. km), an important agricultural region in the southern part of the country which is increasingly affected by drought and dry spells (Sandu and Mateescu, 2014). The scope of the analysis is to assess the gains and losses in CWP for the two crops, by considering increased irrigated cropland and improved fertilization, these being the most common measures potentially and already implemented by the farmers. In order to capture the effects of such measures on agricultural water use, the GIS-based EPIC crop-growth model (GEPIC) (Williams et al., 1989; Liu, 2009) was employed to simulate yields, seasonal evapotranspiration from crops and volume of irrigation water in the Romanian Plain for the 2002 - 2013 interval with focus on 2007 and 2010, two representative years for dry and wet periods, respectively. The GEPIC model operates on a daily time step, while the geospatial input datasets for this analysis (e.g. climate data, soil classes and soil parameters, land use) were harmonized at 1km resolution grid cell. The sources of the spatial data are mainly the national profile agencies/institutes, providing the data at fine resolutions. The increased irrigated area was accounted according to the reported increased percentages of the irrigated area out of the total area equipped for irrigation, as an expected outcome of public irrigation systems rehabilitation schemes (MADR, 2011), while the optimum Nitrogen fertilizer rates for wheat and maize were established according to several field experiments made on irrigated and rain-fed wheat and maize plots in south Romania (Hera and Borlan, 1980). The effects of such farming measures on yields were compared to a baseline condition given by actual irrigated area and fertilization rates. The preliminary results show that potential gains in CWP could be obtained through improved fertilizer management and water allocation in winter wheat cropping systems, particularly in the dry periods, while in maize cropping systems CWP is more sensitive to water than to optimum fertilization rates. Irrigation water supply increases the stability of yields in both cropping systems, although regional differences can be observed across the study area, thus augmenting the relevance and the need for investigations on sustainable use of irrigation water in Romania. As such, this study could represent an information base for further analyses on yield potential under current and future climatic conditions, on impacts of land use patterns and farming practices on crop production in Romania, etc. Keywords: agricultural water use, crop water productivity, irrigation water, GEPIC, Romania References: Molden, D.J., Sakthivadivel, R., Perry, C.J., de Fraiture, C., Kloezen, W.H. (1998). Indicators for comparing performance of irrigated agricultural systems, Research Report 20, IWMI: Colombo, Sri Lanka. Sandu, I., Mateescu E. (2014). Current and prospective climate changes in Romania (in Romanian), in vol. Climate change: a major challenge for research in agriculture (ed. Saulescu, N.), Romanian Academy Publishing House, 17-36. Williams, J.R., Jones, C.A., Kiniry, J.R., Spanel, D.A. (1989). The EPIC crop growth model. Trans. ASAE 32 (2), 497-511. Liu, J. (2009). A GIS-based tool for modelling large-scale crop-water relations, Environmental Modelling & Software, 24, 411-422. MADR (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development), (2011). Rehabilitation and reform in the irrigation sector. Strategy of investment in the irrigation sector (in Romanian), Fidman Merk at., Bucharest, http://old.madr.ro/pages/strategie/strategie-investitii-irigatii.pdf. Hera, C., Borlan, Z. (1980). Guide for fertilization planning (in Romanian), 2nd edition, CERES Publishing House, Bucharest, Romania, 341p.

Cura Annonae-Chemically Boosting Crop Yields Through Metabolic Feeding of a Plant Signaling Precursor.

PubMed

Vocadlo, David J

2017-05-22

The cream of the crop: With the world facing a projected shortfall of crops by 2050, new approaches are needed to boost crop yields. Metabolic feeding of plants with photocaged trehalose-6-phosphate (Tre6P) can increase levels of the signaling metabolite Tre6P in the plant. Reprogramming of cellular metabolism by Tre6P stimulates a program of plant growth and enhanced crop yields, while boosting starch content. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Soil management shapes ecosystem service provision and trade-offs in agricultural landscapes.

PubMed

Tamburini, Giovanni; De Simone, Serena; Sigura, Maurizia; Boscutti, Francesco; Marini, Lorenzo

2016-08-31

Agroecosystems are principally managed to maximize food provisioning even if they receive a large array of supporting and regulating ecosystem services (ESs). Hence, comprehensive studies investigating the effects of local management and landscape composition on the provision of and trade-offs between multiple ESs are urgently needed. We explored the effects of conservation tillage, nitrogen fertilization and landscape composition on six ESs (crop production, disease control, soil fertility, water quality regulation, weed and pest control) in winter cereals. Conservation tillage enhanced soil fertility and pest control, decreased water quality regulation and weed control, without affecting crop production and disease control. Fertilization only influenced crop production by increasing grain yield. Landscape intensification reduced the provision of disease and pest control. We also found tillage and landscape composition to interactively affect water quality regulation and weed control. Under N fertilization, conventional tillage resulted in more trade-offs between ESs than conservation tillage. Our results demonstrate that soil management and landscape composition affect the provision of several ESs and that soil management potentially shapes the trade-offs between them. © 2016 The Author(s).

Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production in Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.; Spano, D.

2011-12-01

The agricultural sector in Nigeria is particularly important for the country's food security, natural resources, and growth agenda. The cultivable areas comprise more than 70% of the total area; however, the cultivated area is about the 35% of the total area. The most important components in the food basket of the nation are cereals and tubers, which include rice, maize, corn, millet, sorghum, yam, and cassava. These crops represent about 80% of the total agricultural product in Nigeria (from NPAFS). The major crops grown in the country can be divided into food crops (produced for consumption) and export products. Despite the importance of the export crops, the primary policy of agriculture is to make Nigeria self-sufficient in its food and fiber requirements. The projected impacts of future climate change on agriculture and water resources are expected to be adverse and extensive in these area. This implies the need for actions and measures to adapt to climate change impacts, and especially as they affect agriculture, the primary sector for Nigerian economy. In the framework of the Project Climate Risk Analysis in Nigeria (founded by World Bank Contract n.7157826), a study was made to assess the potential impact of climate change on the main crops that characterize Nigerian agriculture. The DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5 was used for the analysis. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT are tools that simulate physiological processes of crop growth, development and production by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. For each selected crop, the models were calibrated to evaluate climate change impacts on crop production. The climate data used for the analysis are derived by the Regional Circulation Model COSMO-CLM, from 1971 to 2065, at 8 km of spatial resolution. The RCM model output was "perturbed" with 10 Global Climate Models to have a wide variety of possible climate projections for the impact analysis. Multiple combinations of soil and climate conditions and crop management and varieties were considered for each Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) of Nigeria. A sensitivity analysis was made to evaluate the model response to changes in precipitation and temperature. The climate impact assessment was made by comparing the yield obtained with the climate data for the present period and the yield obtainable under future climate conditions. The results were analyzed at state, AEZ and country levels. The analysis shows a general reduction in crop yields in particular in the dryer regions of northern Nigeria.

Effects of dynamic agricultural decision making in an ecohydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reichenau, T. G.; Krimly, T.; Schneider, K.

2012-04-01

Due to various interdependencies between the cycles of water, carbon, nitrogen, and energy the impacts of climate change on ecohydrological systems can only be investigated in an integrative way. Furthermore, the human intervention in the environmental processes makes the system even more complex. On the one hand human impact affects natural systems. On the other hand the changing natural systems have a feedback on human decision making. One of the most important examples for this kind of interaction can be found in the agricultural sector. Management dates (planting, fertilization, harvesting) are chosen based on meteorological conditions and yield expectations. A faster development of crops under a warmer climate causes shorter cropping seasons. The choice of crops depends on their profitability, which is mainly determined by market prizes, the agro-political framework, and the (climate dependent) crop yield. This study investigates these relations for the district Günzburg located in the Upper Danube catchment in southern Germany. The modeling system DANUBIA was used to perform dynamically coupled simulations of plant growth, surface and soil hydrological processes, soil nitrogen transformations, and agricultural decision making. The agro-economic model simulates decisions on management dates (based on meteorological conditions and the crops' development state), on fertilization intensities (based on yield expectations), and on choice of crops (based on profitability). The environmental models included in DANUBIA are to a great extent process based to enable its use in a climate change scenario context. Scenario model runs until 2058 were performed using an IPCC A1B forcing. In consecutive runs, dynamic crop management, dynamic crop selection, and a changing agro-political framework were activated. Effects of these model features on hydrological and ecological variables were analyzed separately by comparing the results to a model run with constant crop distribution and constant management. Results show that the influence of the modeled dynamic management adaptation on variables like transpiration, carbon uptake, or nitrate leaching from the vadose zone is stronger than the influence of a dynamic choice of crops. Climate change was found to have a stronger impact on this modeled choice of crops than the agro-political framework. These results suggest that scenario studies in areas with a large share of arable land should take into account management adaptations to changing climate.

Potential individual versus simultaneous climate change effects on soybean (C 3) and maize (C 4) crops: An agrotechnology model based study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mera, Roberto J.; Niyogi, Dev; Buol, Gregory S.; Wilkerson, Gail G.; Semazzi, Fredrick H. M.

2006-11-01

Landuse/landcover change induced effects on regional weather and climate patterns and the associated plant response or agricultural productivity are coupled processes. Some of the basic responses to climate change can be detected via changes in radiation ( R), precipitation ( P), and temperature ( T). Past studies indicate that each of these three variables can affect LCLUC response and the agricultural productivity. This study seeks to address the following question: What is the effect of individual versus simultaneous changes in R, P, and T on plant response such as crop yields in a C 3 and a C 4 plant? This question is addressed by conducting model experiments for soybean (C 3) and maize (C 4) crops using the DSSAT: Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, CROPGRO (soybean), and CERES-Maize (maize) models. These models were configured over an agricultural experiment station in Clayton, NC [35.65°N, 78.5°W]. Observed weather and field conditions corresponding to 1998 were used as the control. In the first set of experiments, the CROPGRO (soybean) and CERES-Maize (maize) responses to individual changes in R and P (25%, 50%, 75%, 150%) and T (± 1, ± 2 °C) with respect to control were studied. In the second set, R, P, and T were simultaneously changed by 50%, 150%, and ± 2 °C, and the interactions and direct effects of individual versus simultaneous variable changes were analyzed. For the model setting and the prescribed environmental changes, results from the first set of experiments indicate: (i) precipitation changes were most sensitive and directly affected yield and water loss due to evapotranspiration; (ii) radiation changes had a non-linear effect and were not as prominent as precipitation changes; (iii) temperature had a limited impact and the response was non-linear; (iv) soybeans and maize responded differently for R, P, and T, with maize being more sensitive. The results from the second set of experiments indicate that simultaneous change analyses do not necessarily agree with those from individual changes, particularly for temperature changes. Our analysis indicates that for the changing climate, precipitation (hydrological), temperature, and radiative feedbacks show a non-linear effect on yield. Study results also indicate that for studying the feedback between the land surface and the atmospheric changes, (i) there is a need for performing simultaneous parameter changes in the response assessment of cropping patterns and crop yield based on ensembles of projected climate change, and (ii) C 3 crops are generally considered more sensitive than C 4; however, the temperature-radiation related changes shown in this study also effected significant changes in C 4 crops. Future studies assessing LCLUC impacts, including those from agricultural cropping patterns and other LCULC-climate couplings, should advance beyond the sensitivity mode and consider multivariable, ensemble approaches to identify the vulnerability and feedbacks in estimating climate-related impacts.

Crop yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern

DOE PAGES

Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

2017-05-03

The linkage between crop yield and climate variability has been confirmed in numerous studies using statistical approaches. A crucial assumption in these studies is that crop spatial distribution pattern is constant over time. Here, we explore how changes in county-level corn spatial distribution pattern modulate the response of its yields to climate change at the state level over the Contiguous United States. Our results show that corn yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern, with distinct impacts on the magnitude and even the direction at the state level. Corn yield is predicted to decrease by 20~40%more » by 2050s when considering crop spatial distribution pattern changes, which is 6~12% less than the estimates with fixed cropping pattern. The beneficial effects are mainly achieved by reducing the negative impacts of daily maximum temperature and strengthening the positive impacts of precipitation. Our results indicate that previous empirical studies could be biased in assessing climate change impacts by ignoring the changes in crop spatial distribution pattern. As a result, this has great implications for understanding the increasing debates on whether climate change will be a net gain or loss for regional agriculture.« less

Crop yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

The linkage between crop yield and climate variability has been confirmed in numerous studies using statistical approaches. A crucial assumption in these studies is that crop spatial distribution pattern is constant over time. Here, we explore how changes in county-level corn spatial distribution pattern modulate the response of its yields to climate change at the state level over the Contiguous United States. Our results show that corn yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern, with distinct impacts on the magnitude and even the direction at the state level. Corn yield is predicted to decrease by 20~40%more » by 2050s when considering crop spatial distribution pattern changes, which is 6~12% less than the estimates with fixed cropping pattern. The beneficial effects are mainly achieved by reducing the negative impacts of daily maximum temperature and strengthening the positive impacts of precipitation. Our results indicate that previous empirical studies could be biased in assessing climate change impacts by ignoring the changes in crop spatial distribution pattern. As a result, this has great implications for understanding the increasing debates on whether climate change will be a net gain or loss for regional agriculture.« less

Linking ecophysiological modelling with quantitative genetics to support marker-assisted crop design for improved yields of rice (Oryza sativa) under drought stress.

PubMed

Gu, Junfei; Yin, Xinyou; Zhang, Chengwei; Wang, Huaqi; Struik, Paul C

2014-09-01

Genetic markers can be used in combination with ecophysiological crop models to predict the performance of genotypes. Crop models can estimate the contribution of individual markers to crop performance in given environments. The objectives of this study were to explore the use of crop models to design markers and virtual ideotypes for improving yields of rice (Oryza sativa) under drought stress. Using the model GECROS, crop yield was dissected into seven easily measured parameters. Loci for these parameters were identified for a rice population of 94 introgression lines (ILs) derived from two parents differing in drought tolerance. Marker-based values of ILs for each of these parameters were estimated from additive allele effects of the loci, and were fed to the model in order to simulate yields of the ILs grown under well-watered and drought conditions and in order to design virtual ideotypes for those conditions. To account for genotypic yield differences, it was necessary to parameterize the model for differences in an additional trait 'total crop nitrogen uptake' (Nmax) among the ILs. Genetic variation in Nmax had the most significant effect on yield; five other parameters also significantly influenced yield, but seed weight and leaf photosynthesis did not. Using the marker-based parameter values, GECROS also simulated yield variation among 251 recombinant inbred lines of the same parents. The model-based dissection approach detected more markers than the analysis using only yield per se. Model-based sensitivity analysis ranked all markers for their importance in determining yield differences among the ILs. Virtual ideotypes based on markers identified by modelling had 10-36 % more yield than those based on markers for yield per se. This study outlines a genotype-to-phenotype approach that exploits the potential value of marker-based crop modelling in developing new plant types with high yields. The approach can provide more markers for selection programmes for specific environments whilst also allowing for prioritization. Crop modelling is thus a powerful tool for marker design for improved rice yields and for ideotyping under contrasting conditions. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Genetic variability for stomatal conductance in Pima cotton and its relation to improvements of heat adaptation.

PubMed Central

Radin, J W; Lu, Z; Percy, R G; Zeiger, E

1994-01-01

Responses of stomata to environment have been intensively studied, but little is known of genetic effects on stomatal conductance or their consequences. In Pima cotton (Gossypium barbadense L.), a crop that is bred for irrigated production in very hot environments, stomatal conductance varies genetically over a wide range and has increased with each release of new higher-yielding cultivars. A cross between heat-adapted (high-yielding) and unadapted genotypes produced F2 progeny cosegregating for stomatal conductance and leaf temperature. Within segregating populations in the field, conductance was negatively correlated with foliar temperature because of evaporative cooling. Plants were selected from the F2 generation specifically and solely for differing stomatal conductance. Among F3 and F4 populations derived from these selections, conductance and leaf cooling were significantly correlated with fruiting prolificacy during the hottest period of the year and with yield. Conductance was not associated with other factors that might have affected yield potential (single-leaf photosynthetic rate, leaf water potential). As breeders have increased the yield of this crop, genetic variability for conductance has allowed inadvertent selection for "heat avoidance" (evaporative cooling) in a hot environment. PMID:11607487

Statistical modeling of yield and variance instability in conventional and organic cropping systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cropping systems research was undertaken to address declining crop diversity and verify competitiveness of alternatives to the predominant conventional cropping system in the northern Corn Belt. To understand and capitalize on temporal yield variability within corn and soybean fields, we quantified ...

Simulating canopy temperature for modelling heat stress in cereals

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Crop models must be improved to account for the large effects of heat stress effects on crop yields. To date, most approaches in crop models use air temperature despite evidence that crop canopy temperature better explains yield reductions associated with high temperature events. This study presents...

Long-term variation of Surface Ozone, NO2, temperature and relative humidity on crop yield over Andhra Pradesh (AP), India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arunachalam, M. S.; Obili, Manjula; Srimurali, M.

2016-07-01

Long-term variation of Surface Ozone, NO2, Temperature, Relative humidity and crop yield datasets over thirteen districts of Andhra Pradesh(AP) has been studied with the help of OMI, MODIS, AIRS, ERA-Interim re-analysis and Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES) of AP. Inter comparison of crop yield loss estimates according to exposure metrics such as AOT40 (accumulated ozone exposure over a threshold of 40) and non-linear variation of surface temperature for twenty and eighteen varieties of two major crop growing seasons namely, kharif (April-September) and rabi (October-March), respectively has been made. Study is carried to establish a new crop-yield-exposure relationship for different crop cultivars of AP. Both ozone and temperature are showing a correlation coefficient of 0.66 and 0.87 with relative humidity; and 0.72 and 0.80 with NO2. Alleviation of high surface ozone results in high food security and improves the economy thereby reduces the induced warming of the troposphere caused by ozone. Keywords: Surface Ozone, NO2, Temperature, Relative humidity, Crop yield, AOT 40.

Mapping Crop Yield and Sow Date Using High Resolution Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royal, K.

2015-12-01

Keitasha Royal, Meha Jain, Ph.D., David Lobell, Ph.D Mapping Crop Yield and Sow Date Using High Resolution ImageryThe use of satellite imagery in agriculture is becoming increasingly more significant and valuable. Due to the emergence of new satellites, such as Skybox, these satellites provide higher resolution imagery (e.g 1m) therefore improving the ability to map smallholder agriculture. For the smallholder farm dominated area of northern India, Skybox high-resolution satellite imagery can aid in understanding how to improve farm yields. In particular, we are interested in mapping winter wheat in India, as this region produces approximately 80% of the country's wheat crop, which is important given that wheat is a staple crop that provides approximately 20% of household calories. In northeast India, the combination of increased heat stress, limited irrigation access, and the difficulty for farmers to access advanced farming technologies results in farmers only producing about 50% of their potential crop yield. The use of satellite imagery can aid in understanding wheat yields through time and help identify ways to increase crop yields in the wheat belt of India. To translate Skybox satellite data into meaningful information about wheat fields, we examine vegetation indices, such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), to measure the "greenness" of plants to help determine the health of the crops. We test our ability to predict crop characteristics, like sow date and yield, using vegetation indices of 59 fields for which we have field data in Bihar, India.

Tropical rotation crops influence nematode densities and vegetable yields.

PubMed

McSorley, R; Dickson, D W; de Brito, J A; Hochmuth, R C

1994-09-01

The effects of eight summer rotation crops on nematode densities and yields of subsequent spring vegetable crops were determined in field studies conducted in north Florida from 1991 to 1993. The crop sequence was as follows: (i) rotation crops during summer 1991; (ii) cover crop of rye (Secale cereale) during winter 1991-92; (iii) 'Lemondrop L' squash (Cucurbita pepo) during spring 1992; (iv) rotation crops during summer 1992; (v) rye during winter 1992-93; (vi) 'Classic' eggplant (Solanum melongena) during spring 1993. The eight summer crop rotation treatments were as follows: 'Hale' castor (Ricinus communis), velvetbean (Mucuna deeringiana), sesame (Sesamum indicum), American jointvetch (Aeschynomene americana), weed fallow, 'SX- 17' sorghum-sudangrass (Sorghum bicolor x S. sudanense), 'Kirby' soybean (Glycine max), and 'Clemson Spineless' okra (Hibiscus esculentus) as a control. Rotations with castor, velvetbean, American jointvetch, and sorghum-sudangrass were most effective in maintaining the lowest population densities of Meloidogyne spp. (a mixture of M. incognita race 1 and M. arenaria race 1), but Paratrichodorus minor built up in the sorghum-sudangrass rotation. Yield of squash was lower (P

Hormonal regulation of reproductive growth under normal and heat-stress conditions in legume and other model crop species.

PubMed

Ozga, Jocelyn A; Kaur, Harleen; Savada, Raghavendra P; Reinecke, Dennis M

2017-04-01

Legume crops are grown throughout the world and provide an excellent food source of digestible protein and starch, as well as dietary fibre, vitamins, minerals, and flavonoids. Fruit and seeds from legumes are also an important source of vegetables for a well-balanced diet. A trend in elevated temperature as a result of climate change increases the risk of a heat stress-induced reduction in legume crop yield. High temperatures during the crop reproductive development phase are particularly detrimental to fruit/seed production because the growth and development of the reproductive tissues are sensitive to small changes in temperature. Hormones are signalling molecules that play important roles in a plant's ability to integrate different environmental inputs and modify their developmental processes to optimize growth, survival, and reproduction. This review focuses on the hormonal regulation of reproductive development and heat stress-induced alteration of this regulation during (i) pollination, (ii) early fruit set, and (iii) seed development that affects fruit/seed yield in legume and other model crops. Further understanding of hormone-regulated reproductive growth under non-stress and heat-stress conditions can aid in trait selection and the development of gene modification strategies and cultural practices to improve heat tolerance in legume crops contributing to improved food security. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Monitoring interannual variation in global crop yield using long-term AVHRR and MODIS observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaoyang; Zhang, Qingyuan

2016-04-01

Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data have been extensively applied for crop yield prediction because of their daily temporal resolution and a global coverage. This study investigated global crop yield using daily two band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) derived from AVHRR (1981-1999) and MODIS (2000-2013) observations at a spatial resolution of 0.05° (∼5 km). Specifically, EVI2 temporal trajectory of crop growth was simulated using a hybrid piecewise logistic model (HPLM) for individual pixels, which was used to detect crop phenological metrics. The derived crop phenology was then applied to calculate crop greenness defined as EVI2 amplitude and EVI2 integration during annual crop growing seasons, which was further aggregated for croplands in each country, respectively. The interannual variations in EVI2 amplitude and EVI2 integration were combined to correlate to the variation in cereal yield from 1982-2012 for individual countries using a stepwise regression model, respectively. The results show that the confidence level of the established regression models was higher than 90% (P value < 0.1) in most countries in the northern hemisphere although it was relatively poor in the southern hemisphere (mainly in Africa). The error in the yield predication was relatively smaller in America, Europe and East Asia than that in Africa. In the 10 countries with largest cereal production across the world, the prediction error was less than 9% during past three decades. This suggests that crop phenology-controlled greenness from coarse resolution satellite data has the capability of predicting national crop yield across the world, which could provide timely and reliable crop information for global agricultural trade and policymakers.

Land Husbandry: Biochar application to reduce land degradation and erosion on cassava production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuniwati, E. D.

2017-12-01

This field experiment was carried out to examine the effect of increasing crop yield on land degradation and erosion in cassava-based cropping systems. The experiment was also aimed at showing that with proper crop management, the planting of cassava does not result in land degradation, and therefore, a sustainable production system can be obtained. The experiment was done in a farmer's fields in Batu, about 15 km south east of Malang, East Java, Indonesia. The soils are Alfisols with a surface slope of about 8%. There were 8 experimental treatments with two replications. The experiment results show that biochar applications reduce of soil erosion rate of the cassava field were not necessarily higher than those of maize in terms of crop yield and crop management. At low-to-medium yield, also observed the nutrient uptake of cassava was lower than that of maize. At high yield, only the K uptake of cassava was higher than that of maize, whereas the N and P uptake was more or less similar. Soil erosion on the cassava field was significantly higher than that on the maize field; however, this only occurred when there was no suitable crop management. Simple crop managements, such as ridging, biochar application, or manure application could significantly reduce soil erosion. The results also revealed that proper management could prevent land degradation and increase crop yield. In turn, the increase in crop yield could decrease soil erosion and plant nutrient depletion.

Effects of fragmentation, supplementation and the addition of phase II compost to 2nd break compost on mushroom (Agaricus bisporus) yield.

PubMed

Royse, Daniel J

2010-01-01

Double-cropping offers growers an opportunity to increase production efficiency while reducing costs. We evaluated degree of fragmentation, supplementation, and addition of phase II compost (PIIC) to 2nd break compost (2BkC) on mushroom yield and biological efficiency (BE%). One crop was extended as a triple crop in which we evaluated effect of compost type, and addition of phase II compost and supplement. All crops involved removing the casing layer after 2nd break and then using 2BkC for the various treatments. Simple fragmentation of the compost increased mushroom yield by 30% compared to non-fragmented compost. Addition of a commercial supplement to fragmented compost increased mushroom yield by 53-56% over non-supplemented, fragmented 2BkC. Fragmented, supplemented 2BkC resulted in a 99% and 108% yield increase over the non-fragmented control depending on degree of fragmentation (3x, 1x, respectively). A 3rd crop of mushrooms was produced from 2BkC, but yields were about one-half that of the 1st and 2nd crops. Double-cropping (and even triple-cropping) offers growers an opportunity to increase bio-efficiency, reduce production costs, and increase profitability. The cost of producing Agaricus bisporus continues to rise due to increasing expenses including materials, energy, and labor. Optimizing production practices, through double- or triple-cropping, could help growers become more efficient and competitive, and ensure the availability of mushrooms for consumers.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of soil phosphorus and crop uptake in global cropland during the 20th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jie; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Van Apeldoorn, Dirk F.; Mogollón, José M.; Yu, Chaoqing; Bouwman, Alexander F.

2017-04-01

Phosphorus (P) plays a vital role in global crop production and food security. In this study, we investigate the changes in soil P pool inventories calibrated from historical countrywide crop P uptake, using a 0.5-by-0.5° spatially explicit model for the period 1900-2010. Globally, the total P pool per hectare increased rapidly between 1900 and 2010 in soils of Europe (+31 %), South America (+2 %), North America (+15 %), Asia (+17 %), and Oceania (+17 %), while it has been stable in Africa. Simulated crop P uptake is influenced by both soil properties (available P and the P retention potential) and crop characteristics (maximum uptake). Until 1950, P fertilizer application had a negligible influence on crop uptake, but recently it has become a driving factor for food production in industrialized countries and a number of transition countries like Brazil, Korea, and China. This comprehensive and spatially explicit model can be used to assess how long surplus P fertilization is needed or how long depletions of built-up surplus P can continue without affecting crop yield.

Wheat yield and yield stability of eight dryland crop rotations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)-fallow (WF) dryland production system employed in the Central Great Plains has evolved in the past 40 years to include a diversity of other crops, with a reduction in fallow frequency. Wheat remains the base crop for essentially all cropping systems. Decisions...

Agriculture Impacts of Regional Nuclear Conflict

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Lili; Robock, Alan; Mills, Michael; Toon, Owen Brian

2013-04-01

One of the major consequences of nuclear war would be climate change due to massive smoke injection into the atmosphere. Smoke from burning cities can be lofted into the stratosphere where it will have an e-folding lifetime more than 5 years. The climate changes include significant cooling, reduction of solar radiation, and reduction of precipitation. Each of these changes can affect agricultural productivity. To investigate the response from a regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan, we used the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer agricultural simulation model. We first evaluated the model by forcing it with daily weather data and management practices in China and the USA for rice, maize, wheat, and soybeans. Then we perturbed observed weather data using monthly climate anomalies for a 10-year period due to a simulated 5 Tg soot injection that could result from a regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan, using a total of 100 15 kt atomic bombs, much less than 1% of the current global nuclear arsenal. We computed anomalies using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE and NCAR's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). We perturbed each year of the observations with anomalies from each year of the 10-year nuclear war simulations. We found that different regions respond differently to a regional nuclear war; southern regions show slight increases of crop yields while in northern regions crop yields drop significantly. Sensitivity tests show that temperature changes due to nuclear war are more important than precipitation and solar radiation changes in affecting crop yields in the regions we studied. In total, crop production in China and the USA would decrease 15-50% averaged over the 10 years using both models' output. Simulations forced by ModelE output show smaller impacts than simulations forced by WACCM output at the end of the 10 year period because of the different temperature responses in the two models.

Tradeoffs between Maize Silage Yield and Nitrate Leaching in a Mediterranean Nitrate-Vulnerable Zone under Current and Projected Climate Scenarios

PubMed Central

Basso, Bruno; Giola, Pietro; Dumont, Benjamin; Migliorati, Massimiliano De Antoni; Cammarano, Davide; Pruneddu, Giovanni; Giunta, Francesco

2016-01-01

Future climatic changes may have profound impacts on cropping systems and affect the agronomic and environmental sustainability of current N management practices. The objectives of this work were to i) evaluate the ability of the SALUS crop model to reproduce experimental crop yield and soil nitrate dynamics results under different N fertilizer treatments in a farmer’s field, ii) use the SALUS model to estimate the impacts of different N fertilizer treatments on NO3- leaching under future climate scenarios generated by twenty nine different global circulation models, and iii) identify the management system that best minimizes NO3- leaching and maximizes yield under projected future climate conditions. A field experiment (maize-triticale rotation) was conducted in a nitrate vulnerable zone on the west coast of Sardinia, Italy to evaluate N management strategies that include urea fertilization (NMIN), conventional fertilization with dairy slurry and urea (CONV), and no fertilization (N0). An ensemble of 29 global circulation models (GCM) was used to simulate different climate scenarios for two Representative Circulation Pathways (RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) and evaluate potential nitrate leaching and biomass production in this region over the next 50 years. Data collected from two growing seasons showed that the SALUS model adequately simulated both nitrate leaching and crop yield, with a relative error that ranged between 0.4% and 13%. Nitrate losses under RCP8.5 were lower than under RCP6.0 only for NMIN. Accordingly, levels of plant N uptake, N use efficiency and biomass production were higher under RCP8.5 than RCP6.0. Simulations under both RCP scenarios indicated that the NMIN treatment demonstrated both the highest biomass production and NO3- losses. The newly proposed best management practice (BMP), developed from crop N uptake data, was identified as the optimal N fertilizer management practice since it minimized NO3- leaching and maximized biomass production over the long term. PMID:26784113

Meeting the demand for crop production: the challenge of yield decline in crops grown in short rotations.

PubMed

Bennett, Amanda J; Bending, Gary D; Chandler, David; Hilton, Sally; Mills, Peter

2012-02-01

There is a trend world-wide to grow crops in short rotation or in monoculture, particularly in conventional agriculture. This practice is becoming more prevalent due to a range of factors including economic market trends, technological advances, government incentives, and retailer and consumer demands. Land-use intensity will have to increase further in future in order to meet the demands of growing crops for both bioenergy and food production, and long rotations may not be considered viable or practical. However, evidence indicates that crops grown in short rotations or monoculture often suffer from yield decline compared to those grown in longer rotations or for the first time. Numerous factors have been hypothesised as contributing to yield decline, including biotic factors such as plant pathogens, deleterious rhizosphere microorganisms, mycorrhizas acting as pathogens, and allelopathy or autotoxicity of the crop, as well as abiotic factors such as land management practices and nutrient availability. In many cases, soil microorganisms have been implicated either directly or indirectly in yield decline. Although individual factors may be responsible for yield decline in some cases, it is more likely that combinations of factors interact to cause the problem. However, evidence confirming the precise role of these various factors is often lacking in field studies due to the complex nature of cropping systems and the numerous interactions that take place within them. Despite long-term knowledge of the yield-decline phenomenon, there are few tools to counteract it apart from reverting to longer crop rotations or break crops. Alternative cropping and management practices such as double-cropping or inter-cropping, tillage and organic amendments may prove valuable for combating some of the negative effects seen when crops are grown in short rotation. Plant breeding continues to be important, although this does require a specific breeding target to be identified. This review identifies gaps in our understanding of yield decline, particularly with respect to the complex interactions occurring between the different components of agro-ecosystems, which may well influence food security in the 21(st) Century. © 2011 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2011 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Global Gridded Crop Model Evaluation: Benchmarking, Skills, Deficiencies and Implications.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Arneth, Almut; Balkovic, Juraj; Ciais, Philippe; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Hoek, Steven;

Cell Number Regulator1 Affects Plant and Organ Size in Maize: Implications for Crop Yield Enhancement and Heterosis[C][W

PubMed Central

Guo, Mei; Rupe, Mary A.; Dieter, Jo Ann; Zou, Jijun; Spielbauer, Daniel; Duncan, Keith E.; Howard, Richard J.; Hou, Zhenglin; Simmons, Carl R.

2010-01-01

Genes involved in cell number regulation may affect plant growth and organ size and, ultimately, crop yield. The tomato (genus Solanum) fruit weight gene fw2.2, for instance, governs a quantitative trait locus that accounts for 30% of fruit size variation, with increased fruit size chiefly due to increased carpel ovary cell number. To expand investigation of how related genes may impact other crop plant or organ sizes, we identified the maize (Zea mays) gene family of putative fw2.2 orthologs, naming them Cell Number Regulator (CNR) genes. This family represents an ancient eukaryotic family of Cys-rich proteins containing the PLAC8 or DUF614 conserved motif. We focused on native expression and transgene analysis of the two maize members closest to Le-fw2.2, namely, CNR1 and CNR2. We show that CNR1 reduced overall plant size when ectopically overexpressed and that plant and organ size increased when its expression was cosuppressed or silenced. Leaf epidermal cell counts showed that the increased or decreased transgenic plant and organ size was due to changes in cell number, not cell size. CNR2 expression was found to be negatively correlated with tissue growth activity and hybrid seedling vigor. The effects of CNR1 on plant size and cell number are reminiscent of heterosis, which also increases plant size primarily through increased cell number. Regardless of whether CNRs and other cell number–influencing genes directly contribute to, or merely mimic, heterosis, they may aid generation of more vigorous and productive crop plants. PMID:20400678

Evaluating the synchronicity in yield variations of staple crops at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yokozawa, M.

2014-12-01

Reflecting the recent globalization trend in world commodity market, several major production countries are producing large amount of staple crops, especially, maize and soybean. Thus, simultaneous crop failure (abrupt reduction in crop yield, lean year) due to extreme weather and/or climate change could lead to unstable food supply. This study try to examine the synchronicity in yield variations of staple crops at global scale. We use a gridded crop yields database, which includes the historical year-to-year changes in staple crop yields with a spatial resolution of 1.125 degree in latitude/longitude during a period of 1982-2006 (Iizumi et al. 2013). It has been constructed based on the agriculture statistics issued by local administrative bureaus in each country. For the regions being lack of data, an interpolation was conducted to obtain the values referring to the NPP estimates from satellite data as well as FAO country yield. For each time series of the target crop yield, we firstly applied a local kernel regression to represent the long-term trend component. Next, the deviations of yearly yield from the long-term trend component were defined as ΔY(i, y) in year y at grid i. Then, the correlation of deviation between grids i and j in year y is defined as Cij(y) = ΔY(i, y) ΔY(j, y). In addition, Pij = <ΔY(i, y) ΔY(j, y)> represents the time-averaged correlation of deviation between grids i and j. Bracket <...> means the time average operation over 25 years (1982-2006). As the results, figures show the time changes in the number of grid pairs, in which both the deviation are negative. It represent the time changes in ratio of the grid pairs where both crop yields synchronically decreased to the total grid pairs. The years denoted by arrows in the figures indicate the case that all the ratios of three country pairs (i.e. China-USA, USA-Brazil and Brazil-China) are relatively larger (>0.6 for soybean and >0.5 for maize). This suggests that the reductions in crop yield occurred synchronically in three countries in these years, which are the simultaneous lean years (as of lower yield compared to that of long-term trend).

Understanding the weather signal in national crop-yield variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, Katja; Schauberger, Bernhard; Arneth, Almut; Balkovič, Juraj; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Folberth, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Müller, Christoph; Olin, Stefan; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Schewe, Jacob; Schmid, Erwin; Warszawski, Lila; Levermann, Anders

2017-06-01

Year-to-year variations in crop yields can have major impacts on the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and may trigger significant global price fluctuations, with severe consequences for people in developing countries. Fluctuations can be induced by weather conditions, management decisions, weeds, diseases, and pests. Although an explicit quantification and deeper understanding of weather-induced crop-yield variability is essential for adaptation strategies, so far it has only been addressed by empirical models. Here, we provide conservative estimates of the fraction of reported national yield variabilities that can be attributed to weather by state-of-the-art, process-based crop model simulations. We find that observed weather variations can explain more than 50% of the variability in wheat yields in Australia, Canada, Spain, Hungary, and Romania. For maize, weather sensitivities exceed 50% in seven countries, including the United States. The explained variance exceeds 50% for rice in Japan and South Korea and for soy in Argentina. Avoiding water stress by simulating yields assuming full irrigation shows that water limitation is a major driver of the observed variations in most of these countries. Identifying the mechanisms leading to crop-yield fluctuations is not only fundamental for dampening fluctuations, but is also important in the context of the debate on the attribution of loss and damage to climate change. Since process-based crop models not only account for weather influences on crop yields, but also provide options to represent human-management measures, they could become essential tools for differentiating these drivers, and for exploring options to reduce future yield fluctuations.

Beneficial effects of solar UV-B radiation on soybean yield mediated by reduced insect herbivory under field conditions.

PubMed

Mazza, Carlos A; Giménez, Patricia I; Kantolic, Adriana G; Ballaré, Carlos L

2013-03-01

Ultraviolet-B radiation (UV-B: 280-315 nm) has damaging effects on cellular components and macromolecules. In plants, natural levels of UV-B can reduce leaf area expansion and growth, which can lead to reduced productivity and yield. UV-B can also have important effects on herbivorous insects. Owing to the successful implementation of the Montreal Protocol, current models predict that clear-sky levels of UV-B radiation will decline during this century in response to ozone recovery. However, because of climate change and changes in land use practices, future trends in UV doses are difficult to predict. In the experiments reported here, we used an exclusion approach to study the effects of solar UV-B radiation on soybean crops, which are extensively grown in many areas of the world that may be affected by future variations in UV-B radiation. In a first experiment, performed under normal management practices (which included chemical pest control), we found that natural levels of UV-B radiation reduced soybean yield. In a second experiment, where no pesticides were applied, we found that solar UV-B significantly reduced insect herbivory and, surprisingly, caused a concomitant increase in crop yield. Our data support the idea that UV-B effects on agroecosystems are the result of complex interactions involving multiple trophic levels. A better understanding of the mechanisms that mediate the anti-herbivore effect of UV-B radiation may be used to design crop varieties with improved adaptation to the cropping systems that are likely to prevail in the coming decades in response to agricultural intensification. Copyright © Physiologia Plantarum 2012.

The California Biomass Crop Adoption Model estimates biofuel feedstock crop production across diverse agro-ecological zones within the state, under different future climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaffka, S.; Jenner, M.; Bucaram, S.; George, N.

2012-12-01

Both regulators and businesses need realistic estimates for the potential production of biomass feedstocks for biofuels and bioproducts. This includes the need to understand how climate change will affect mid-tem and longer-term crop performance and relative advantage. The California Biomass Crop Adoption Model is a partial mathematical programming optimization model that estimates the profit level needed for new crop adoption, and the crop(s) displaced when a biomass feedstock crop is added to the state's diverse set of cropping systems, in diverse regions of the state. Both yield and crop price, as elements of profit, can be varied. Crop adoption is tested against current farmer preferences derived from analysis of 10 years crop production data for all crops produced in California, collected by the California Department of Pesticide Regulation. Analysis of this extensive data set resulted in 45 distinctive, representative farming systems distributed across the state's diverse agro-ecological regions. Estimated yields and water use are derived from field trials combined with crop simulation, reported elsewhere. Crop simulation is carried out under different weather and climate assumptions. Besides crop adoption and displacement, crop resource use is also accounted, derived from partial budgets used for each crop's cost of production. Systematically increasing biofuel crop price identified areas of the state where different types of crops were most likely to be adopted. Oilseed crops like canola that can be used for biodiesel production had the greatest potential to be grown in the Sacramento Valley and other northern regions, while sugar beets (for ethanol) had the greatest potential in the northern San Joaquin Valley region, and sweet sorghum in the southern San Joaquin Valley. Up to approximately 10% of existing annual cropland in California was available for new crop adoption. New crops are adopted if the entire cropping system becomes more profitable. In particular, canola production resulted in less overall water use but increased farm profits. Most crop substitutions were resource neutral. If future climate is drier, more winter annual crops like canola are likely to be adopted. Crop displacement is also important for determining market-mediated effects of biomass crop production. Correctly estimating crop displacement at the local scale greatly improves upon estimates for indirect land use change derived from the macro-scale PE and CGE models currently used by US EPA and the California Air Resources Board.

Patterns of Cereal Yield Growth across China from 1980 to 2010 and Their Implications for Food Production and Food Security

PubMed Central

Li, Xiaoyun; Liu, Nianjie; You, Liangzhi; Ke, Xinli; Liu, Haijun; Huang, Malan; Waddington, Stephen R.

2016-01-01

After a remarkable 86% increase in cereal production from 1980 to 2005, recent crop yield growth in China has been slow. County level crop production data between 1980 and 2010 from eastern and middle China were used to analyze spatial and temporal patterns of rice, wheat and maize yield in five major farming systems that include around 90% of China's cereal production. Site-specific yield trends were assessed in areas where those crops have experienced increasing yield or where yields have stagnated or declined. We find that rice yields have continued to increase on over 12.3 million hectares (m. ha) or 41.8% of the rice area in China between 1980 and 2010. However, yields stagnated on 50% of the rice area (around 14.7 m. ha) over this time period. Wheat yields increased on 13.8 m. ha (58.2% of the total harvest area), but stagnated on around 3.8 m. ha (15.8% of the harvest area). Yields increased on a smaller proportion of the maize area (17.7% of harvest area, 5.3 m. ha), while yields have stagnated on over 54% (16.3 m. ha). Many parts of the lowland rice and upland intensive sub-tropical farming systems were more prone to stagnation with rice, the upland intensive sub-tropical system with wheat, and maize in the temperate mixed system. Large areas where wheat yield continues to rise were found in the lowland rice and temperate mixed systems. Land and water constraints, climate variability, and other environmental limitations undermine increased crop yield and agricultural productivity in these systems and threaten future food security. Technology and policy innovations must be implemented to promote crop yields and the sustainable use of agricultural resources to maintain food security in China. In many production regions it is possible to better match the crop with input resources to raise crop yields and benefits. Investments may be especially useful to intensify production in areas where yields continue to improve. For example, increased support to maize production in southern China, where yields are still rising, seems justified. PMID:27404110

Correlation Between Precipitation and Crop Yield for Corn and Cotton Produced in Alabama

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hayes, Carol E.; Perkey, Donald J.

1998-01-01

In this study, variations in precipitation during the time of corn silking are compared to Alabama corn yields. Also, this study compares precipitation variations during bloom to Alabama cotton yield. The goal is to obtain mathematical correlations between rainfall during the crop's critical period and the crop amount harvested per acre.

7 CFR 457.132 - Cranberry crop insurance provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

.... If you fail to notify us of any circumstance that may affect your yields from previous levels, we... considered acceptable by us; and (d) That are grown on vines that have completed four growing seasons after...: (i) A transfer of coverage and right to an indemnity, or a similar form approved by us, is completed...

7 CFR 457.132 - Cranberry crop insurance provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

.... If you fail to notify us of any circumstance that may affect your yields from previous levels, we... considered acceptable by us; and (d) That are grown on vines that have completed four growing seasons after...: (i) A transfer of coverage and right to an indemnity, or a similar form approved by us, is completed...

7 CFR 457.132 - Cranberry crop insurance provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

.... If you fail to notify us of any circumstance that may affect your yields from previous levels, we... considered acceptable by us; and (d) That are grown on vines that have completed four growing seasons after...: (i) A transfer of coverage and right to an indemnity, or a similar form approved by us, is completed...

7 CFR 457.132 - Cranberry crop insurance provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

.... If you fail to notify us of any circumstance that may affect your yields from previous levels, we... considered acceptable by us; and (d) That are grown on vines that have completed four growing seasons after...: (i) A transfer of coverage and right to an indemnity, or a similar form approved by us, is completed...

First report of mango malformation disease caused by Fusarium pseudocircinatum in Mexico

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Mango (Mangifera indica L.) malformation disease (MMD) is one of the most important diseases affecting this crop worldwide, causing severe economic loss due to reduction of yield. Subsequent to the first report in India in 1891 (3), MMD has spread worldwide to most mango-growing regions. Several spe...

Grain dormancy and light quality effects on germination in the model grass Brachypodium distachyon

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Lack of seed dormancy in cereal crops such as barley and wheat is a common problem affecting farming areas around the world, causing losses in yield and quality due to pre-harvest sprouting. Control of seed dormancy has been investigated extensively using various approaches in different species incl...

Nitrate loss in subsurface drainage and corn yield as affected by timing of sidedress nitrogen

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Using chlorophyll meters, crop sensors, or aerial photography to fine-tune sidedress N application rates have been proposed for optimizing and perhaps reducing overall N fertilizer use on corn (Zea mays L.) and thereby improving water quality by reducing NO3 losses to surface and ground waters. Howe...

Interaction of basal foliage removal and late season fungicide applications in management of Hop powdery mildew

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Experiments were conducted over three years to evaluate whether fungicide applications could be ceased after the most susceptible stages of cone development (late July) without unduly affecting crop yield and quality when disease pressure was moderated with varying levels of basal foliage removal. I...

A network-based approach for semi-quantitative knowledge mining and its application to yield variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schauberger, Bernhard; Rolinski, Susanne; Müller, Christoph

2016-12-01

Variability of crop yields is detrimental for food security. Under climate change its amplitude is likely to increase, thus it is essential to understand the underlying causes and mechanisms. Crop models are the primary tool to project future changes in crop yields under climate change. A systematic overview of drivers and mechanisms of crop yield variability (YV) can thus inform crop model development and facilitate improved understanding of climate change impacts on crop yields. Yet there is a vast body of literature on crop physiology and YV, which makes a prioritization of mechanisms for implementation in models challenging. Therefore this paper takes on a novel approach to systematically mine and organize existing knowledge from the literature. The aim is to identify important mechanisms lacking in models, which can help to set priorities in model improvement. We structure knowledge from the literature in a semi-quantitative network. This network consists of complex interactions between growing conditions, plant physiology and crop yield. We utilize the resulting network structure to assign relative importance to causes of YV and related plant physiological processes. As expected, our findings confirm existing knowledge, in particular on the dominant role of temperature and precipitation, but also highlight other important drivers of YV. More importantly, our method allows for identifying the relevant physiological processes that transmit variability in growing conditions to variability in yield. We can identify explicit targets for the improvement of crop models. The network can additionally guide model development by outlining complex interactions between processes and by easily retrieving quantitative information for each of the 350 interactions. We show the validity of our network method as a structured, consistent and scalable dictionary of literature. The method can easily be applied to many other research fields.

The Impact of Changing Snowmelt Timing on Non-Irrigated Crop Yield in Idaho

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, E. M.; Cobourn, K.; Flores, A. N.; Pierce, J. L.; Kunkel, M. L.

2013-12-01

The impacts of climate change on water resources have implications for both agricultural production and grower welfare. Many mountainous regions in the western U.S. rely on snowmelt as the dominant surface water source, and in Idaho, reconstructions of spring snowmelt timing have demonstrated a trend toward earlier, more variable snowmelt dates within the past 20 years. This earlier date and increased variability in snowmelt timing have serious implications for agriculture, but there is considerable uncertainty about how agricultural impacts vary by region, crop-type, and practices like irrigation vs. dryland farming. Establishing the relationship between snowmelt timing and agricultural yield is important for understanding how changes in large-scale climatic indices (like snowmelt date) may be associated with changes in agricultural yield. This is particularly important where local practitioner behavior is influenced by historically observed relationships between these climate indices and yield. In addition, a better understanding of the influence of changes in snowmelt on non-irrigated crop yield may be extrapolated to better understand how climate change may alter biomass production in non-managed ecosystems. To investigate the impact of snowmelt date on non-irrigated crop yield, we developed a multiple linear regression model to predict historical wheat and barley yield in several Idaho counties as a function of snowmelt date, climate variables (precipitation and growing degree-days), and spatial differences between counties. The relationship between snowmelt timing and non-irrigated crop yield at the county level is strong in many of the models, but differs in magnitude and direction for the two different crops. Results show interesting spatial patterns of variability in the correlation between snowmelt timing and crop yield. In four southern counties that border the Snake River Plain and one county bordering Oregon, non-irrigated wheat and/or barley yield are significantly lower in years with early snowmelt timing, on average (P < 0.10). In contrast, in northern Idaho, barley yield is significantly higher in years with early snowmelt timing. Overall, this statistical modeling exercise indicates that the trend toward earlier snowmelt date may positively impact non-irrigated crop yield in some regions of Idaho, while negatively impacting yield in other areas. Additional research is necessary to identify spatial controls on the variable relationship between snowmelt timing and yield. Regional variability in the response of crops to changes in snowmelt timing may indicate that external factors (e.g. higher amounts of summer rain in northern vs. southern Idaho) may play an important role in crop yield. This study indicates that targeted regional analysis is necessary to determine the influence of climate change on agriculture, as local variability can cause the same forcing to produce opposite results.

Responses of Wheat Yield, Macro- and Micro-Nutrients, and Heavy Metals in Soil and Wheat following the Application of Manure Compost on the North China Plain.

PubMed

Wang, Fan; Wang, Zhaohui; Kou, Changlin; Ma, Zhenghua; Zhao, Dong

2016-01-01

The recycling of livestock manure in cropping systems is considered to enhance soil fertility and crop productivity. However, there have been no systematic long-term studies of the effects of manure application on soil and crop macro- and micro-nutrients, heavy metals, and crop yields in China, despite their great importance for sustainable crop production and food safety. Thus, we conducted field experiments in a typical cereal crop production area of the North China Plain to investigate the effects of compost manure application rates on wheat yield, as well as on the macro-/micro-nutrients and heavy metals contents of soil and wheat. We found that compost application increased the soil total N and the available K, Fe, Zn, and Mn concentrations, whereas the available P in soil was not affected, and the available Cu decreased. In general, compost application had no significant effects on the grain yield, biomass, and harvest index of winter wheat. However, during 2012 and 2013, the N concentration decreased by 9% and 18% in straw, and by 16% and 12% in grain, respectively. With compost application, the straw P concentration only increased in 2012 but the grain P generally increased, while the straw K concentration tended to decrease and the grain K concentration increased in 2013. Compost application generally increased the Fe and Zn concentrations in straw and grain, whereas the Cu and Mn concentrations decreased significantly compared with the control. The heavy metal concentrations increased at some compost application rates, but they were still within the safe range. The balances of the macro-and micro-nutrients indicated that the removal of nutrients by wheat was compensated for by the addition of compost, whereas the level of N decreased without the application of compost. The daily intake levels of micronutrients via the consumption of wheat grain were still lower than the recommended levels when sheep manure compost was applied, except for that of Mn.

Responses of Wheat Yield, Macro- and Micro-Nutrients, and Heavy Metals in Soil and Wheat following the Application of Manure Compost on the North China Plain

PubMed Central

Wang, Fan; Wang, Zhaohui; Kou, Changlin; Ma, Zhenghua; Zhao, Dong

2016-01-01

The recycling of livestock manure in cropping systems is considered to enhance soil fertility and crop productivity. However, there have been no systematic long-term studies of the effects of manure application on soil and crop macro- and micro-nutrients, heavy metals, and crop yields in China, despite their great importance for sustainable crop production and food safety. Thus, we conducted field experiments in a typical cereal crop production area of the North China Plain to investigate the effects of compost manure application rates on wheat yield, as well as on the macro-/micro-nutrients and heavy metals contents of soil and wheat. We found that compost application increased the soil total N and the available K, Fe, Zn, and Mn concentrations, whereas the available P in soil was not affected, and the available Cu decreased. In general, compost application had no significant effects on the grain yield, biomass, and harvest index of winter wheat. However, during 2012 and 2013, the N concentration decreased by 9% and 18% in straw, and by 16% and 12% in grain, respectively. With compost application, the straw P concentration only increased in 2012 but the grain P generally increased, while the straw K concentration tended to decrease and the grain K concentration increased in 2013. Compost application generally increased the Fe and Zn concentrations in straw and grain, whereas the Cu and Mn concentrations decreased significantly compared with the control. The heavy metal concentrations increased at some compost application rates, but they were still within the safe range. The balances of the macro-and micro-nutrients indicated that the removal of nutrients by wheat was compensated for by the addition of compost, whereas the level of N decreased without the application of compost. The daily intake levels of micronutrients via the consumption of wheat grain were still lower than the recommended levels when sheep manure compost was applied, except for that of Mn. PMID:26771517

Crop response to deep tillage - a meta-analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Florian; Don, Axel; Hennings, Inga; Schmittmann, Oliver; Seidel, Sabine J.

2017-04-01

Subsoil, i.e. the soil layer below the topsoil, stores tremendous stocks of nutrients and can keep water even under drought conditions. Deep tillage may be a method to enhance the plant-availability of subsoil resources. However, in field trials, deep tillage effects on crop yields were inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis of crop yield response to subsoiling, deep ploughing and deep mixing of soil profiles. Our search resulted in 1530 yield comparisons following deep and conventional control tillage on 67 experimental cropping sites. The vast majority of the data derived from temperate latitudes, from trials conducted in the USA (679 observations) and Germany (630 observations). On average, crop yield response to deep tillage was slightly positive (6% increase). However, individual deep tillage effects were highly scattered including about 40% yield depressions after deep tillage. Deep tillage on soils with root restrictive layers increased crop yields about 20%, while soils containing >70% silt increased the risk of yield depressions following deep tillage. Generally, deep tillage effects increased with drought intensity indicating deep tillage as climate adaptation measure at certain sites. Our results suggest that deep tillage can facilitate the plant-availability of subsoil nutrients, which increases crop yields if (i) nutrients in the topsoil are growth limiting, and (ii) deep tillage does not come at the cost of impairing topsoil fertility. On sites with root restrictive soil layers, deep tillage can be an effective measure to mitigate drought stress and improve the resilience of crops. However, deep tillage should only be performed on soils with a stable structure, i.e. <70% silt content. We will discuss the contribution of deep tillage options to enhance the sustainability of agricultural production by facilitating the uptake of nutrients and water from the subsoil.

Possible changes to arable crop yields by 2050

PubMed Central

Jaggard, Keith W.; Qi, Aiming; Ober, Eric S.

2010-01-01

By 2050, the world population is likely to be 9.1 billion, the CO2 concentration 550 ppm, the ozone concentration 60 ppb and the climate warmer by ca 2°C. In these conditions, what contribution can increased crop yield make to feeding the world? CO2 enrichment is likely to increase yields of most crops by approximately 13 per cent but leave yields of C4 crops unchanged. It will tend to reduce water consumption by all crops, but this effect will be approximately cancelled out by the effect of the increased temperature on evaporation rates. In many places increased temperature will provide opportunities to manipulate agronomy to improve crop performance. Ozone concentration increases will decrease yields by 5 per cent or more. Plant breeders will probably be able to increase yields considerably in the CO2-enriched environment of the future, and most weeds and airborne pests and diseases should remain controllable, so long as policy changes do not remove too many types of crop-protection chemicals. However, soil-borne pathogens are likely to be an increasing problem when warmer weather will increase their multiplication rates; control is likely to need a transgenic approach to breeding for resistance. There is a large gap between achievable yields and those delivered by farmers, even in the most efficient agricultural systems. A gap is inevitable, but there are large differences between farmers, even between those who have used the same resources. If this gap is closed and accompanied by improvements in potential yields then there is a good prospect that crop production will increase by approximately 50 per cent or more by 2050 without extra land. However, the demands for land to produce bio-energy have not been factored into these calculations. PMID:20713388

Possible changes to arable crop yields by 2050.

PubMed

Jaggard, Keith W; Qi, Aiming; Ober, Eric S

2010-09-27

By 2050, the world population is likely to be 9.1 billion, the CO(2) concentration 550 ppm, the ozone concentration 60 ppb and the climate warmer by ca 2 degrees C. In these conditions, what contribution can increased crop yield make to feeding the world? CO(2) enrichment is likely to increase yields of most crops by approximately 13 per cent but leave yields of C4 crops unchanged. It will tend to reduce water consumption by all crops, but this effect will be approximately cancelled out by the effect of the increased temperature on evaporation rates. In many places increased temperature will provide opportunities to manipulate agronomy to improve crop performance. Ozone concentration increases will decrease yields by 5 per cent or more. Plant breeders will probably be able to increase yields considerably in the CO(2)-enriched environment of the future, and most weeds and airborne pests and diseases should remain controllable, so long as policy changes do not remove too many types of crop-protection chemicals. However, soil-borne pathogens are likely to be an increasing problem when warmer weather will increase their multiplication rates; control is likely to need a transgenic approach to breeding for resistance. There is a large gap between achievable yields and those delivered by farmers, even in the most efficient agricultural systems. A gap is inevitable, but there are large differences between farmers, even between those who have used the same resources. If this gap is closed and accompanied by improvements in potential yields then there is a good prospect that crop production will increase by approximately 50 per cent or more by 2050 without extra land. However, the demands for land to produce bio-energy have not been factored into these calculations.

Prioritizing Crop Management to Increase Nitrogen Use Efficiency in Australian Sugarcane Crops.

PubMed

Thorburn, Peter J; Biggs, Jody S; Palmer, Jeda; Meier, Elizabeth A; Verburg, Kirsten; Skocaj, Danielle M

2017-01-01

Sugarcane production relies on the application of large amounts of nitrogen (N) fertilizer. However, application of N in excess of crop needs can lead to loss of N to the environment, which can negatively impact ecosystems. This is of particular concern in Australia where the majority of sugarcane is grown within catchments that drain directly into the World Heritage listed Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. Multiple factors that impact crop yield and N inputs of sugarcane production systems can affect N use efficiency (NUE), yet the efficacy many of these factors have not been examined in detail. We undertook an extensive simulation analysis of NUE in Australian sugarcane production systems to investigate (1) the impacts of climate on factors determining NUE, (2) the range and drivers of NUE, and (3) regional variation in sugarcane N requirements. We found that the interactions between climate, soils, and management produced a wide range of simulated NUE, ranging from ∼0.3 Mg cane (kg N) -1 , where yields were low (i.e., <50 Mg ha -1 ) and N inputs were high, to >5 Mg cane (kg N) -1 in plant crops where yields were high and N inputs low. Of the management practices simulated (N fertilizer rate, timing, and splitting; fallow management; tillage intensity; and in-field traffic management), the only practice that significantly influenced NUE in ratoon crops was N fertilizer application rate. N rate also influenced NUE in plant crops together with the management of the preceding fallow. In addition, there is regional variation in N fertilizer requirement that could make N fertilizer recommendations more specific. While our results show that complex interrelationships exist between climate, crop growth, N fertilizer rates and N losses to the environment, they highlight the priority that should be placed on optimizing N application rate and fallow management to improve NUE in Australian sugarcane production systems. New initiatives in seasonal climate forecasting, decisions support systems and enhanced efficiency fertilizers have potential for making N fertilizer management more site specific, an action that should facilitate increased NUE.

Prioritizing Crop Management to Increase Nitrogen Use Efficiency in Australian Sugarcane Crops

PubMed Central

Thorburn, Peter J.; Biggs, Jody S.; Palmer, Jeda; Meier, Elizabeth A.; Verburg, Kirsten; Skocaj, Danielle M.

2017-01-01

Sugarcane production relies on the application of large amounts of nitrogen (N) fertilizer. However, application of N in excess of crop needs can lead to loss of N to the environment, which can negatively impact ecosystems. This is of particular concern in Australia where the majority of sugarcane is grown within catchments that drain directly into the World Heritage listed Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. Multiple factors that impact crop yield and N inputs of sugarcane production systems can affect N use efficiency (NUE), yet the efficacy many of these factors have not been examined in detail. We undertook an extensive simulation analysis of NUE in Australian sugarcane production systems to investigate (1) the impacts of climate on factors determining NUE, (2) the range and drivers of NUE, and (3) regional variation in sugarcane N requirements. We found that the interactions between climate, soils, and management produced a wide range of simulated NUE, ranging from ∼0.3 Mg cane (kg N)-1, where yields were low (i.e., <50 Mg ha-1) and N inputs were high, to >5 Mg cane (kg N)-1 in plant crops where yields were high and N inputs low. Of the management practices simulated (N fertilizer rate, timing, and splitting; fallow management; tillage intensity; and in-field traffic management), the only practice that significantly influenced NUE in ratoon crops was N fertilizer application rate. N rate also influenced NUE in plant crops together with the management of the preceding fallow. In addition, there is regional variation in N fertilizer requirement that could make N fertilizer recommendations more specific. While our results show that complex interrelationships exist between climate, crop growth, N fertilizer rates and N losses to the environment, they highlight the priority that should be placed on optimizing N application rate and fallow management to improve NUE in Australian sugarcane production systems. New initiatives in seasonal climate forecasting, decisions support systems and enhanced efficiency fertilizers have potential for making N fertilizer management more site specific, an action that should facilitate increased NUE. PMID:28928756

A global sensitivity analysis of crop virtual water content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamea, S.; Tuninetti, M.; D'Odorico, P.; Laio, F.; Ridolfi, L.

2015-12-01

The concepts of virtual water and water footprint are becoming widely used in the scientific literature and they are proving their usefulness in a number of multidisciplinary contexts. With such growing interest a measure of data reliability (and uncertainty) is becoming pressing but, as of today, assessments of data sensitivity to model parameters, performed at the global scale, are not known. This contribution aims at filling this gap. Starting point of this study is the evaluation of the green and blue virtual water content (VWC) of four staple crops (i.e. wheat, rice, maize, and soybean) at a global high resolution scale. In each grid cell, the crop VWC is given by the ratio between the total crop evapotranspiration over the growing season and the crop actual yield, where evapotranspiration is determined with a detailed daily soil water balance and actual yield is estimated using country-based data, adjusted to account for spatial variability. The model provides estimates of the VWC at a 5x5 arc minutes and it improves on previous works by using the newest available data and including multi-cropping practices in the evaluation. The model is then used as the basis for a sensitivity analysis, in order to evaluate the role of model parameters in affecting the VWC and to understand how uncertainties in input data propagate and impact the VWC accounting. In each cell, small changes are exerted to one parameter at a time, and a sensitivity index is determined as the ratio between the relative change of VWC and the relative change of the input parameter with respect to its reference value. At the global scale, VWC is found to be most sensitive to the planting date, with a positive (direct) or negative (inverse) sensitivity index depending on the typical season of crop planting date. VWC is also markedly dependent on the length of the growing period, with an increase in length always producing an increase of VWC, but with higher spatial variability for rice than for other crops. The sensitivity to the reference evapotranspiration is highly variable with the considered crop and ranges from positive values (for soybean), to negative values (for rice and maize) and near-zero values for wheat. This variability reflects the different yield response factors of crops, which expresses their tolerance to water stress.

Improving irrigation management in L'Horta Nord (Valencia, Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascual-Seva, Nuria; San Bautista, Alberto; López-Galarza, Salvador; Maroto, Jose Vicente; Pascual, Bernardo

2014-05-01

L'Horta Nord is an important irrigation district in Valencia (Spain), especially for vegetable crops. The traditional cropping pattern in the region consists of a rotation of chufa with crops such as potato, onion, lettuce, escarole and red cabbage, being all these crops furrow irrigated. Currently, the quality of the water used is acceptable, water is not expensive and there are no limitations on supply. Consequently, growers are not aware of the volumes of water used, application efficiencies, nor water productivity for any of the crops cited. The European Framework Directive 2000/60, based on the precautionary principle, considers preventive action for measures to be taken; moreover, drought periods are becoming more frequent and extended, and water is being diverted to other uses. Thus, water use is an issue to improve. In this sense, the current situation of the irrigation in the area is analysed using chufa (Cyperus esculentus L. var. sativus Boeck.) as representative of the crops, since most of the crops in the area have shallow root systems, as chufa, which are irrigated in similar patterns. In order to analyse the irrigation performance of the traditional chufa crop as well as to achieve more sustainable results, different studies have been carried out, during the last decade. Efforts have been directed to increase water productivity, increasing yield and minimising the volumes of water applied. Different planting configurations and different irrigation thresholds, not only in furrow irrigation but also in drip irrigation, are examples of how the irrigation performance could be improved. Herein is presented a two-year study, comparing, in both furrow and drip irrigation, two irrigation schedules based on the volumetric soil water content, which was continuously monitored using capacitance sensors. Yield was significantly affected by the growing season, the irrigation system and by the irrigation schedule, and by the second order interactions of the irrigation system with the other studied variables. Greater yields (p≤0.01) were obtained in the first growing season, drip irrigation and maintaining a higher soil moisture level. When considering the irrigation water use efficiency, the irrigation system showed significant differences (p≤0.01) with greater efficiencies for drip irrigation. Considering the homogeneity of the plots in the area and the similarities of the irrigation managements of chufa with the other crops, the results could be extended to most of the plots and crops in the area.

What aspects of future rainfall changes matter for crop yields in West Africa?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Kaiyu; Sultan, Benjamin; Biasutti, Michela; Baron, Christian; Lobell, David B.

2015-10-01

How rainfall arrives, in terms of its frequency, intensity, the timing and duration of rainy season, may have a large influence on rainfed agriculture. However, a thorough assessment of these effects is largely missing. This study combines a new synthetic rainfall model and two independently validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to assess sorghum yield response to possible shifts in seasonal rainfall characteristics in West Africa. We find that shifts in total rainfall amount primarily drive the rainfall-related crop yield change, with less relevance to intraseasonal rainfall features. However, dry regions (total annual rainfall below 500 mm/yr) have a high sensitivity to rainfall frequency and intensity, and more intense rainfall events have greater benefits for crop yield than more frequent rainfall. Delayed monsoon onset may negatively impact yields. Our study implies that future changes in seasonal rainfall characteristics should be considered in designing specific crop adaptations in West Africa.

Yield estimation of sugarcane based on agrometeorological-spectral models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rudorff, Bernardo Friedrich Theodor; Batista, Getulio Teixeira

1990-01-01

This work has the objective to assess the performance of a yield estimation model for sugarcane (Succharum officinarum). The model uses orbital gathered spectral data along with yield estimated from an agrometeorological model. The test site includes the sugarcane plantations of the Barra Grande Plant located in Lencois Paulista municipality in Sao Paulo State. Production data of four crop years were analyzed. Yield data observed in the first crop year (1983/84) were regressed against spectral and agrometeorological data of that same year. This provided the model to predict the yield for the following crop year i.e., 1984/85. The model to predict the yield of subsequent years (up to 1987/88) were developed similarly, incorporating all previous years data. The yield estimations obtained from these models explained 69, 54, and 50 percent of the yield variation in the 1984/85, 1985/86, and 1986/87 crop years, respectively. The accuracy of yield estimations based on spectral data only (vegetation index model) and on agrometeorological data only (agrometeorological model) were also investigated.

Aerobic Decomposition and Organic Amendments Effects on Grain Yield of Triple-Cropped Rice in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil aeration during decomposition of incorporated crop residues and application of organic amendments might help improve soil quality and rice yield for sustainable intensive rice production. A field experiment was conducted on triple-cropped rice during three consecutive crops with five treatments...

Effects of Tropical Rotation Crops on Meloidogyne arenaria Population Densities and Vegetable Yields in Microplots.

PubMed

McSorley, R; Dickson, D W; de Brito, J A; Hewlett, T E; Frederick, J J

1994-06-01

The effects of 12 summer crop rotation treatments on population densities of Meloidogyne arenaria race 1 and on yields of subsequent spring vegetable crops were determined in microplots. The crop sequence was: (i) rotation crops during summer 1991 ; (ii) cover crop of rye (Secale cereale) during winter 1991-92; (iii) squash (Cucurbita pepo) during spring 1992; (iv) rotation crops during summer 1992; (v) rye during winter 1992-93; (vi) eggplant (Solanum melongena) during spring 1993. The 12 rotation treatments were castor (Ricinus communis), cotton (Gossypium hirsutum), velvetbean (Mucuna deeringiana), crotalaria (Crotalaria spectabilis), fallow, hairy indigo (Indigofera hirsuta), American jointvetch (Aeschynomene americana), sorghum-sudangrass (Sorghum bicolor x S. sudanense), soybean (Glycine max), horsebean (Canavalia ensiformis), sesame (Sesamum indicum), and peanut (Arachis hypogaea). Compared to peanut, the first eight rotation treatments resulted in lower (P

Bacillus: A Biological Tool for Crop Improvement through Bio-Molecular Changes in Adverse Environments

PubMed Central

Radhakrishnan, Ramalingam; Hashem, Abeer; Abd_Allah, Elsayed F.

2017-01-01

Crop productivity is affected by environmental and genetic factors. Microbes that are beneficial to plants are used to enhance the crop yield and are alternatives to chemical fertilizers and pesticides. Pseudomonas and Bacillus species are the predominant plant growth-promoting bacteria. The spore-forming ability of Bacillus is distinguished from that of Pseudomonas. Members of this genus also survive for a long time under unfavorable environmental conditions. Bacillus spp. secrete several metabolites that trigger plant growth and prevent pathogen infection. Limited studies have been conducted to understand the physiological changes that occur in crops in response to Bacillus spp. to provide protection against adverse environmental conditions. This review describes the current understanding of Bacillus-induced physiological changes in plants as an adaptation to abiotic and biotic stresses. During water scarcity, salinity and heavy metal accumulate in soil, Bacillus spp. produce exopolysaccharides and siderophores, which prevent the movement of toxic ions and adjust the ionic balance and water transport in plant tissues while controlling the pathogenic microbial population. In addition, the synthesis of indole-3-acetic acid, gibberellic acid and1-aminocyclopropane-1-carboxylate (ACC) deaminase by Bacillus regulates the intracellular phytohormone metabolism and increases plant stress tolerance. Cell-wall-degrading substances, such as chitosanase, protease, cellulase, glucanase, lipopeptides and hydrogen cyanide from Bacillus spp. damage the pathogenic bacteria, fungi, nematodes, viruses and pests to control their populations in plants and agricultural lands. The normal plant metabolism is affected by unfavorable environmental stimuli, which suppress crop growth and yield. Abiotic and biotic stress factors that have detrimental effects on crops are mitigated by Bacillus-induced physiological changes, including the regulation of water transport, nutrient up-take and the activation of the antioxidant and defense systems. Bacillus association stimulates plant immunity against stresses by altering stress-responsive genes, proteins, phytohormones and related metabolites. This review describes the beneficial effect of Bacillus spp. on crop plants, which improves plant productivity under unfavorable climatic conditions, and the current understanding of the mitigation mechanism of Bacillus spp. in stress-tolerant and/or stress-resistant plants. PMID:28932199

Bacillus: A Biological Tool for Crop Improvement through Bio-Molecular Changes in Adverse Environments.

PubMed

Radhakrishnan, Ramalingam; Hashem, Abeer; Abd Allah, Elsayed F

2017-01-01

Crop productivity is affected by environmental and genetic factors. Microbes that are beneficial to plants are used to enhance the crop yield and are alternatives to chemical fertilizers and pesticides. Pseudomonas and Bacillus species are the predominant plant growth-promoting bacteria. The spore-forming ability of Bacillus is distinguished from that of Pseudomonas . Members of this genus also survive for a long time under unfavorable environmental conditions. Bacillus spp. secrete several metabolites that trigger plant growth and prevent pathogen infection. Limited studies have been conducted to understand the physiological changes that occur in crops in response to Bacillus spp. to provide protection against adverse environmental conditions. This review describes the current understanding of Bacillus -induced physiological changes in plants as an adaptation to abiotic and biotic stresses. During water scarcity, salinity and heavy metal accumulate in soil, Bacillus spp. produce exopolysaccharides and siderophores, which prevent the movement of toxic ions and adjust the ionic balance and water transport in plant tissues while controlling the pathogenic microbial population. In addition, the synthesis of indole-3-acetic acid, gibberellic acid and1-aminocyclopropane-1-carboxylate (ACC) deaminase by Bacillus regulates the intracellular phytohormone metabolism and increases plant stress tolerance. Cell-wall-degrading substances, such as chitosanase, protease, cellulase, glucanase, lipopeptides and hydrogen cyanide from Bacillus spp. damage the pathogenic bacteria, fungi, nematodes, viruses and pests to control their populations in plants and agricultural lands. The normal plant metabolism is affected by unfavorable environmental stimuli, which suppress crop growth and yield. Abiotic and biotic stress factors that have detrimental effects on crops are mitigated by Bacillus -induced physiological changes, including the regulation of water transport, nutrient up-take and the activation of the antioxidant and defense systems. Bacillus association stimulates plant immunity against stresses by altering stress-responsive genes, proteins, phytohormones and related metabolites. This review describes the beneficial effect of Bacillus spp. on crop plants, which improves plant productivity under unfavorable climatic conditions, and the current understanding of the mitigation mechanism of Bacillus spp. in stress-tolerant and/or stress-resistant plants.

The sunflower transcription factor HaWRKY76 confers drought and flood tolerance to Arabidopsis thaliana plants without yield penalty.

PubMed

Raineri, Jesica; Ribichich, Karina F; Chan, Raquel L

2015-12-01

Arabidopsis transgenic plants expressing the sunflower transcription factor HaWRKY76 exhibit increased yield and tolerance to drought and flood stresses. The genetic construct containing HaWRKY76 is proposed as a potential biotechnological tool to improve crops. Water deficit and water excess are abiotic stress factors that seriously affect crops worldwide. To increase the tolerance to such stresses without causing yield penalty constitutes a major goal for biotechnologists. In this survey, we report that HaWRKY76, a divergent sunflower WRKY transcription factor, is able to confer both dehydration and submergence tolerance to Arabidopsis transgenic plants without yield penalty. The expression pattern of HaWRKY76 was analyzed in plants grown in standard conditions and under different watering regimes indicating a regulation by water availability. The corresponding cDNA was isolated and cloned under the control of a constitutive promoter and Arabidopsis plants were transformed with this construct. These transgenic plants presented higher biomass, seed production and sucrose content than controls in standard growth conditions. Moreover, they exhibited tolerance to mild drought or flood (complete submergence/waterlogging) stresses as well as the same or increased yield, depending on the stress severity and plant developmental stage, compared with controls. Drought tolerance occurred via an ABA-independent mechanism and induction of stomatal closure. Submergence tolerance can be explained by the carbohydrate (sucrose and starch) preservation achieved through the repression of fermentation pathways. Higher cell membrane stability and chlorenchyma maintenance could be the nexus between tolerance responses in front of both stresses. Altogether, the obtained results indicated that HaWRKY76 can be a potential biotechnological tool to improve crops yield as well as drought and flood tolerances.

Effects of irrigation moisture regimes on yield and quality of paprika ( Capsicum annuum L)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shongwe, Victor D.; Magongo, Bekani N.; Masarirambi, Michael T.; Manyatsi, Absalom M.

Although paprika ( Capsicum annuum L) is not widely grown in Swaziland it is becoming increasingly popular as a spice and food colourant. It is a crop that requires irrigation at specific stages of growth as this affects not only the yield but most importantly the quality of the crop. Yield of paprika has been found to increase with relative increase in moisture whereas the quality of fruits has not followed the same trend. The objective of this study was to find the effect of varying irrigation water regimes on the yield and quality of paprika at uniform fertiliser levels. The study was carried out in the 2006/2007 cropping season at the Luyengo campus of the University of Swaziland in a greenhouse. A randomised complete block design was used with four water treatments (0.40, 0.60, 0.80, and 1.00 × Field Capacity). Parameters measured included leaf number per plant, plant height, chlorophyll content, canopy size, leaf width, leaf length, stem girth, dry mass, fresh mass, fruit length, and brix content. There were significant ( P < 0.05) increases in leaf number, plant height, chlorophyll content, canopy size, fresh and dry mass tops and fruit length at the highest moisture level (1.00 × FC) followed by the second highest regime (0.80 × FC) whilst the lower water regimes resulted in lower increases in each of the parameters. Leaf area index did not differ significantly across all treatments. In increasing order the treatments 0.80 × FC and 1.00 × FC gave higher yields but in decreasing order lower brix and thus subsequent lower paprika quality. It is recommended that growers who are aiming for optimum yield and high quality of paprika may use the 0.8 × FC treatment when irrigating.

Rice: Characterizing the Environmental Response of a Gibberellic Acid-Deficient Rice for Use as a Model Crop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frantz, Jonathan M.; Pinnock, Derek; Klassen, Steve; Bugbee, Bruce

2004-01-01

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is a useful model crop plant. Rice was the first crop plant to have its complete genome sequenced. Unfortunately, even semi-dwarf rice cultivars are 60 to 90 an tail, and large plant populations cannot be grown in the confined volumes of greenhouses and growth chambers. We recently identified an extremely short (20 em tall) rice line, which is an ideal model for larger rice cultivars. We called this line "Super Dwarf rice." Here we report the response of Super Dwarf to temperature, photoperiod, photosynthetic photon flux (PPF), and factors that can affect time to head emergence. Vegetative biomass increased 6% per degree Celsius, with increasing temperature from 27 to 31 C. Seed yield decreased by 2% per degree Celsius rise in temperature, and as a result, harvest index decreased from 60 to 54%. The time to heading increased by 2 d for every hour above a 12-h photoperiod. Yield increased with increasing PPF up to the highest level tested at 1800 micro-mol/sq m/s (12-h photoperiod; 77.8 mol/sq m/d). Yield efficiency (grams per mole of photons) increased to 900 micro-mol/sq m/s and then slightly decreased at 1800 micro-mol/sq m/s . Heading was delayed by addition of gibberellic acid 3 (GA,) to the root zone but was hastened under mild N stress. Overall, short stature, high yield, high harvest index, and no extraordinary environmental requirements make Super Dwarf rice an excellent model plant for yield studies in controlled environments.

A Novel Approach for Forecasting Crop Production and Yield Using Remotely Sensed Satellite Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, R. K.; Budde, M. E.; Senay, G. B.; Rowland, J.

2017-12-01

Forecasting crop production in advance of crop harvest plays a significant role in drought impact management, improved food security, stabilizing food grain market prices, and poverty reduction. This becomes essential, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, where agriculture is a critical source of livelihoods, but lacks good quality agricultural statistical data. With increasing availability of low cost satellite data, faster computing power, and development of modeling algorithms, remotely sensed images are becoming a common source for deriving information for agricultural, drought, and water management. Many researchers have shown that the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), based on red and near-infrared reflectance, can be effectively used for estimating crop production and yield. Similarly, crop production and yield have been closely related to evapotranspiration (ET) also as there are strong linkages between production/yield and transpiration based on plant physiology. Thus, we combined NDVI and ET information from remotely sensed images for estimating total production and crop yield prior to crop harvest for Niger and Burkina Faso in West Africa. We identified the optimum time (dekads 23-29) for cumulating NDVI and ET and developed a new algorithm for estimating crop production and yield. We used the crop data from 2003 to 2008 to calibrate our model and the data from 2009 to 2013 for validation. Our results showed that total crop production can be estimated within 5% of actual production (R2 = 0.98) about 30-45 days before end of the harvest season. This novel approach can be operationalized to provide a valuable tool to decision makers for better drought impact management in drought-prone regions of the world.

Soil Physicochemical and Biological Properties of Paddy-Upland Rotation: A Review

PubMed Central

Lv, Teng-Fei; Chen, Yong; Westby, Anthony P.; Ren, Wan-Jun

2014-01-01

Paddy-upland rotation is an unavoidable cropping system for Asia to meet the increasing demand for food. The reduction in grain yields has increased the research interest on the soil properties of rice-based cropping systems. Paddy-upland rotation fields are unique from other wetland or upland soils, because they are associated with frequent cycling between wetting and drying under anaerobic and aerobic conditions; such rotations affect the soil C and N cycles, make the chemical speciation and biological effectiveness of soil nutrient elements varied with seasons, increase the diversity of soil organisms, and make the soil physical properties more difficult to analyze. Consequently, maintaining or improving soil quality at a desirable level has become a complicated issue. Therefore, fully understanding the soil characteristics of paddy-upland rotation is necessary for the sustainable development of the system. In this paper, we offer helpful insight into the effect of rice-upland combinations on the soil chemical, physical, and biological properties, which could provide guidance for reasonable cultivation management measures and contribute to the improvement of soil quality and crop yield. PMID:24995366

Agroecology of corn production in Tlaxcala, Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Altieri, M.A.; Trujillo, J.

1987-06-01

The primary components of Tlaxcalan corn agriculture are described, including cropping patterns employed, resource management strategies, and interactions of human and biological factors. Tlaxcalan farmers grow corn in an array of polyculture and agroforestry designs that result in a series of ecological processes important for insect pest and soil fertility management. Measurements derived from a few selected fields show that trees integrated into cropping systems modify the aerial and soil environment of associated understory corn plants, influencing their growth and yields. With decreasing distance from trees, surface concentrations of most soil nutrients increase. Certain tree species affect corn yields moremore » than others. Arthropod abundance also varies depending on their degree of association with one or more of the vegetational components of the system. Densities of predators and the corn pest Macrodactylus sp. depend greatly on the presence and phenology of adjacent alfalfa strips. Although the data were derived from nonreplicated fields, they nevertheless point out some important trends, information that can be used to design new crop association that will achieve sustained soil fertility and low pest potentials.« less

Spontaneous gene flow from rapeseed (Brassica napus) to wild Brassica oleracea

PubMed Central

Ford, Caroline S; Allainguillaume, Joël; Grilli-Chantler, Phil; Cuccato, Giulia; Allender, Charlotte J; Wilkinson, Mike J

2006-01-01

Research on the environmental risks of gene flow from genetically modified (GM) crops to wild relatives has traditionally emphasized recipients yielding most hybrids. For GM rapeseed (Brassica napus), interest has centred on the ‘frequently hybridizing’ Brassica rapa over relatives such as Brassica oleracea, where spontaneous hybrids are unreported in the wild. In two sites, where rapeseed and wild B. oleracea grow together, we used flow cytometry and crop-specific microsatellite markers to identify one triploid F1 hybrid, together with nine diploid and two near triploid introgressants. Given the newly discovered capacity for spontaneous introgression into B. oleracea, we then surveyed associated flora and fauna to evaluate the capacity of both recipients to harm cohabitant species with acknowledged conservational importance. Only B. oleracea occupies rich communities containing species afforded legislative protection; these include one rare micromoth species that feeds on B. oleracea and warrants further assessment. We conclude that increased attention should now focus on B. oleracea and similar species that yield few crop-hybrids, but possess scope to affect rare or endangered associates. PMID:17015343

Spontaneous gene flow from rapeseed (Brassica napus) to wild Brassica oleracea.

PubMed

Ford, Caroline S; Allainguillaume, Joël; Grilli-Chantler, Phil; Cuccato, Giulia; Allender, Charlotte J; Wilkinson, Mike J

2006-12-22

Research on the environmental risks of gene flow from genetically modified (GM) crops to wild relatives has traditionally emphasized recipients yielding most hybrids. For GM rapeseed (Brassica napus), interest has centred on the 'frequently hybridizing' Brassica rapa over relatives such as Brassica oleracea, where spontaneous hybrids are unreported in the wild. In two sites, where rapeseed and wild B. oleracea grow together, we used flow cytometry and crop-specific microsatellite markers to identify one triploid F1 hybrid, together with nine diploid and two near triploid introgressants. Given the newly discovered capacity for spontaneous introgression into B. oleracea, we then surveyed associated flora and fauna to evaluate the capacity of both recipients to harm cohabitant species with acknowledged conservational importance. Only B. oleracea occupies rich communities containing species afforded legislative protection; these include one rare micromoth species that feeds on B. oleracea and warrants further assessment. We conclude that increased attention should now focus on B. oleracea and similar species that yield few crop-hybrids, but possess scope to affect rare or endangered associates.

Crop and varietal diversification of rainfed rice based cropping systems for higher productivity and profitability in Eastern India

PubMed Central

Panda, B. B.; Raja, R.; Singh, Teekam; Tripathi, R.; Shahid, M.; Nayak, A. K.

2017-01-01

Rice-rice system and rice fallows are no longer productive in Southeast Asia. Crop and varietal diversification of the rice based cropping systems may improve the productivity and profitability of the systems. Diversification is also a viable option to mitigate the risk of climate change. In Eastern India, farmers cultivate rice during rainy season (June–September) and land leftovers fallow after rice harvest in the post-rainy season (November–May) due to lack of sufficient rainfall or irrigation amenities. However, in lowland areas, sufficient residual soil moistures are available in rice fallow in the post-rainy season (November–March), which can be utilized for raising second crops in the region. Implementation of suitable crop/varietal diversification is thus very much vital to achieve this objective. To assess the yield performance of rice varieties under timely and late sown conditions and to evaluate the performance of dry season crops following them, three different duration rice cultivars were transplanted in July and August. In dry season several non-rice crops were sown in rice fallow to constitute a cropping system. The results revealed that tiller occurrence, biomass accumulation, dry matter remobilization, crop growth rate, and ultimately yield were significantly decreased under late transplanting. On an average, around 30% yield reduction obtained under late sowing may be due to low temperature stress and high rainfall at reproductive stages of the crop. Dry season crops following short duration rice cultivars performed better in terms of grain yield. In the dry season, toria was profitable when sown earlier and if sowing was delayed greengram was suitable. Highest system productivity and profitability under timely sown rice may be due to higher dry matter remobilization from source to sink. A significant correlation was observed between biomass production and grain yield. We infer that late transplanting decrease the tiller occurrence and assimilate remobilization efficiency, which may be responsible for the reduced grain yield. PMID:28437487

Crop and varietal diversification of rainfed rice based cropping systems for higher productivity and profitability in Eastern India.

PubMed

Lal, B; Gautam, Priyanka; Panda, B B; Raja, R; Singh, Teekam; Tripathi, R; Shahid, M; Nayak, A K

2017-01-01

Rice-rice system and rice fallows are no longer productive in Southeast Asia. Crop and varietal diversification of the rice based cropping systems may improve the productivity and profitability of the systems. Diversification is also a viable option to mitigate the risk of climate change. In Eastern India, farmers cultivate rice during rainy season (June-September) and land leftovers fallow after rice harvest in the post-rainy season (November-May) due to lack of sufficient rainfall or irrigation amenities. However, in lowland areas, sufficient residual soil moistures are available in rice fallow in the post-rainy season (November-March), which can be utilized for raising second crops in the region. Implementation of suitable crop/varietal diversification is thus very much vital to achieve this objective. To assess the yield performance of rice varieties under timely and late sown conditions and to evaluate the performance of dry season crops following them, three different duration rice cultivars were transplanted in July and August. In dry season several non-rice crops were sown in rice fallow to constitute a cropping system. The results revealed that tiller occurrence, biomass accumulation, dry matter remobilization, crop growth rate, and ultimately yield were significantly decreased under late transplanting. On an average, around 30% yield reduction obtained under late sowing may be due to low temperature stress and high rainfall at reproductive stages of the crop. Dry season crops following short duration rice cultivars performed better in terms of grain yield. In the dry season, toria was profitable when sown earlier and if sowing was delayed greengram was suitable. Highest system productivity and profitability under timely sown rice may be due to higher dry matter remobilization from source to sink. A significant correlation was observed between biomass production and grain yield. We infer that late transplanting decrease the tiller occurrence and assimilate remobilization efficiency, which may be responsible for the reduced grain yield.

Conservation Agriculture Improves Soil Quality, Crop Yield, and Incomes of Smallholder Farmers in North Western Ghana

PubMed Central

Naab, Jesse B.; Mahama, George Y.; Yahaya, Iddrisu; Prasad, P. V. V.

2017-01-01

Conservation agriculture (CA) practices are being widely promoted in many areas in sub-Saharan Africa to recuperate degraded soils and improve ecosystem services. This study examined the effects of three tillage practices [conventional moldboard plowing (CT), hand hoeing (MT) and no-tillage (NT)], and three cropping systems (continuous maize, soybean–maize annual rotation, and soybean/maize intercropping) on soil quality, crop productivity, and profitability in researcher and farmer managed on-farm trials from 2010 to 2013 in northwestern Ghana. In the researcher managed mother trial, the CA practices of NT, residue retention and crop rotation/intercropping maintained higher soil organic carbon, and total soil N compared to conventional tillage practices after 4 years. Soil bulk density was higher under NT than under CT soils in the researcher managed mother trails or farmers managed baby trials after 4 years. In the researcher managed mother trial, there was no significant difference between tillage systems or cropping systems in maize or soybean yields in the first three seasons. In the fourth season, crop rotation had the greatest impact on maize yields with CT maize following soybean increasing yields by 41 and 49% compared to MT and NT maize, respectively. In the farmers’ managed trials, maize yield ranged from 520 to 2700 kg ha-1 and 300 to 2000 kg ha-1 for CT and NT, respectively, reflecting differences in experience of farmers with NT. Averaged across farmers, CT cropping systems increased maize and soybean yield ranging from 23 to 39% compared with NT cropping systems. Partial budget analysis showed that the cost of producing maize or soybean is 20–29% cheaper with NT systems and gives higher returns to labor compared to CT practice. Benefit-to-cost ratios also show that NT cropping systems are more profitable than CT systems. We conclude that with time, implementation of CA practices involving NT, crop rotation, intercropping of maize and soybean along with crop residue retention presents a win–win scenario due to improved crop yield, increased economic return, and trends of increasing soil fertility. The biggest challenge, however, remains with producing enough biomass and retaining same on the field. PMID:28680427

Temperature Increase Reduces Global Yields of Major Crops in Four Independent Estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhao, Chuang; Liu, Bing; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Lobell, David B.; Huang, Yao; Huang, Mengtian; Yao, Yitong; Bassu, Simona; Ciais, Philippe;

Development of transgenic crops based on photo-biotechnology.

PubMed

Ganesan, Markkandan; Lee, Hyo-Yeon; Kim, Jeong-Il; Song, Pill-Soon

2017-11-01

The phenotypes associated with plant photomorphogenesis such as the suppressed shade avoidance response and de-etiolation offer the potential for significant enhancement of crop yields. Of many light signal transducers and transcription factors involved in the photomorphogenic responses of plants, this review focuses on the transgenic overexpression of the photoreceptor genes at the uppermost stream of the signalling events, particularly phytochromes, crytochromes and phototropins as the transgenes for the genetic engineering of crops with improved harvest yields. In promoting the harvest yields of crops, the photoreceptors mediate the light regulation of photosynthetically important genes, and the improved yields often come with the tolerance to abiotic stresses such as drought, salinity and heavy metal ions. As a genetic engineering approach, the term photo-biotechnology has been coined to convey the idea that the greater the photosynthetic efficiency that crop plants can be engineered to possess, the stronger the resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses. Development of GM crops based on photoreceptor transgenes (mainly phytochromes, crytochromes and phototropins) is reviewed with the proposal of photo-biotechnology that the photoreceptors mediate the light regulation of photosynthetically important genes, and the improved yields often come with the added benefits of crops' tolerance to environmental stresses. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates

PubMed Central

Zhao, Chuang; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Lobell, David B.; Huang, Yao; Huang, Mengtian; Yao, Yitong; Bassu, Simona; Ciais, Philippe; Durand, Jean-Louis; Elliott, Joshua; Ewert, Frank; Janssens, Ivan A.; Li, Tao; Lin, Erda; Liu, Qiang; Martre, Pierre; Peng, Shushi; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Tao; Wu, Donghai; Liu, Zhuo; Zhu, Yan; Zhu, Zaichun; Asseng, Senthold

2017-01-01

Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population. PMID:28811375

Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates.

PubMed

Zhao, Chuang; Liu, Bing; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Lobell, David B; Huang, Yao; Huang, Mengtian; Yao, Yitong; Bassu, Simona; Ciais, Philippe; Durand, Jean-Louis; Elliott, Joshua; Ewert, Frank; Janssens, Ivan A; Li, Tao; Lin, Erda; Liu, Qiang; Martre, Pierre; Müller, Christoph; Peng, Shushi; Peñuelas, Josep; Ruane, Alex C; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Tao; Wu, Donghai; Liu, Zhuo; Zhu, Yan; Zhu, Zaichun; Asseng, Senthold

2017-08-29

Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO 2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.

An assessment of irrigation needs and crop yield for the United States under potential climate changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brumbelow, Kelly; Georgakakos, Aris P.

2000-01-01

Past assessments of climate change on U.S. agriculture have mostly focused on changes in crop yield. Few studies have included the entire conterminous U.S., and few studies have assessed changing irrigation requirements. None have included the effects of changing soil moisture characteristics as determined by changing climatic forcing. This study assesses changes in irrigation requirements and crop yields for five crops in the areas of the U.S. where they have traditionally been grown. Physiologically-based crop models are used to incorporate inputs of climate, soils, agricultural management, and drought stress tolerance. Soil moisture values from a macroscale hydrologic model run under a future climate scenario are used to initialize soil moisture content at the beginning of each growing season. Historical crop yield data is used to calibrate model parameters and determine locally acceptable drought stress as a management parameter. Changes in irrigation demand and crop yield are assessed for both means and extremes by comparing results for atmospheric forcing close to the present climate with those for a future climate scenario. Assessments using the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis General Circulation Model (CGCM1) indicate greater irrigation demands in the southern U.S. and decreased irrigation demands in the northern and western U.S. Crop yields typically increase except for winter wheat in the southern U.S. and corn. Variability in both irrigation demands and crop yields increases in most cases. Assessment results for the CGCM1 climate scenario are compared to those for the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research GCM (HadCM2) scenario for southwestern Georgia. The comparison shows significant differences in irrigation and yield trends, both in magnitude and direction. The differences reflect the high forecast uncertainty of current GCMs. Nonetheless, both GCMs indicate higher variability in future climatic forcing and, consequently, in the response of agricultural systems.

Yield variability prediction by remote sensing sensors with different spatial resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumhálová, Jitka; Matějková, Štěpánka

2017-04-01

Currently, remote sensing sensors are very popular for crop monitoring and yield prediction. This paper describes how satellite images with moderate (Landsat satellite data) and very high (QuickBird and WorldView-2 satellite data) spatial resolution, together with GreenSeeker hand held crop sensor, can be used to estimate yield and crop growth variability. Winter barley (2007 and 2015) and winter wheat (2009 and 2011) were chosen because of cloud-free data availability in the same time period for experimental field from Landsat satellite images and QuickBird or WorldView-2 images. Very high spatial resolution images were resampled to worse spatial resolution. Normalised difference vegetation index was derived from each satellite image data sets and it was also measured with GreenSeeker handheld crop sensor for the year 2015 only. Results showed that each satellite image data set can be used for yield and plant variability estimation. Nevertheless, better results, in comparison with crop yield, were obtained for images acquired in later phenological phases, e.g. in 2007 - BBCH 59 - average correlation coefficient 0.856, and in 2011 - BBCH 59-0.784. GreenSeeker handheld crop sensor was not suitable for yield estimation due to different measuring method.

Educational Software for Illustration of Drainage, Evapotranspiration, and Crop Yield.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khan, A. H.; And Others

1996-01-01

Describes a study that developed a software package for illustrating drainage, evapotranspiration, and crop yield as influenced by water conditions. The software is a tool for depicting water's influence on crop production in western Kansas. (DDR)

Projected changes in crop yield mean and variability over West Africa in a world 1.5 K warmer than the pre-industrial era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkes, Ben; Defrance, Dimitri; Sultan, Benjamin; Ciais, Philippe; Wang, Xuhui

2018-02-01

The ability of a region to feed itself in the upcoming decades is an important issue. The West African population is expected to increase significantly in the next 30 years. The responses of crops to short-term climate change is critical to the population and the decision makers tasked with food security. This leads to three questions: how will crop yields change in the near future? What influence will climate change have on crop failures? Which adaptation methods should be employed to ameliorate undesirable changes? An ensemble of near-term climate projections are used to simulate maize, millet and sorghum in West Africa in the recent historic period (1986-2005) and a near-term future when global temperatures are 1.5 K above pre-industrial levels to assess the change in yield, yield variability and crop failure rate. Four crop models were used to simulate maize, millet and sorghum in West Africa in the historic and future climates. Across the majority of West Africa the maize, millet and sorghum yields are shown to fall. In the regions where yields increase, the variability also increases. This increase in variability increases the likelihood of crop failures, which are defined as yield negative anomalies beyond 1 standard deviation during the historic period. The increasing variability increases the frequency of crop failures across West Africa. The return time of crop failures falls from 8.8, 9.7 and 10.1 years to 5.2, 6.3 and 5.8 years for maize, millet and sorghum respectively. The adoption of heat-resistant cultivars and the use of captured rainwater have been investigated using one crop model as an idealized sensitivity test. The generalized doption of a cultivar resistant to high-temperature stress during flowering is shown to be more beneficial than using rainwater harvesting.

Changes in growth, essential oil yield and composition of geranium (Pelargonium graveolens L.) as affected by growing media.

PubMed

Rezaei Nejad, Abdolhossein; Ismaili, Ahmad

2014-03-30

Using proper growing medium is known to be an effective way to improve crop growth and yield. However, the effects of growing media on geranium essential oil have scarcely ever been examined in detail. In this research, the effects of different growing media (soil, sand, pumice, perlite and perlite + cocopeat) on growth, oil yield and composition of geranium were studied. Growth was significantly improved in soilless-grown plants compared with soil-grown plants. Oil yield of soilless-grown plants (except for pumice) was about threefold higher than that of soil-grown plants. The increase in oil yield was correlated with higher leaf dry weight (r²  = 0.96), as oil content was not affected. The citronellol/geranium ratio of oil was clearly affected by growing media, ranging from 5:1 in soil culture to 3:1 in soilless culture. The latter is acceptable for perfumery. Compared with soil, soilless media could produce higher yields of high-quality geranium oil that fits market requirements. Growth, oil yield and composition of plants grown in sand (a cheap and abundant growing medium) were not significantly different from those of plants grown in perlite and perlite + cocopeat. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

Connections Between Soil Fertility Declines, Land Use, Ethnicity, Education, and Wealth In Uganda

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiemann, L. K.; Hartter, J.; Grandy, S.

2016-12-01

Food security issues are particularly acute in Uganda, where the world's 8th highest population growth rate will lead to cultivation of all land available for agriculture by 2022. Agricultural intensification in Uganda, which includes continuous cropping, mono-cropping and expansion of agriculture into marginal areas, has put unprecedented pressure on soils. In western Uganda, we surveyed 474 households, collecting demographic data, information on land use practices and perceptions of risk to crop yields and food security. We also sampled soils from maize fields associated with each surveyed household and measured total organic C and nutrients such as nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). Using these data, we sought to determine how risk perceptions, ethnicity, household wealth and education combine to determine land use decisions and ultimately, declines in soil organic matter and soil nutrients. We conducted our study within 5 km of an un-cultivated native tropical forest reserve, Kibale National Park (KNP), which serves as a reference point for potential soil fertility. Of 470 respondents, only 29 answered `no' when asked if they noticed year to year declines in crop yields. Across all maize fields we found soil C has been reduced by 30% and soil N by 45% relative to KNP soils and declines were more pronounced when survey respondents were Bakiga rather than Batooro. Households that indicated they were "very much" dependent upon profits from maize had a 31% increase in soil C:N while those indicating no dependence on maize profits had a significantly lower increase in soil C:N of 21%. Ethnicity and education influenced land use decisions; the Batooro and people with a lower level of education were more likely to burn their fields or crop residues. Additionally, the Bakiga were more likely to use rock P in their fields and in consequence had 108% while Batooro soils had 65% of the P found in KNP soils. Across all respondents, the top two ranked risks to crop yields and food security were weather related, with soil fertility ranked third on average, regardless of ethnicity, education or wealth. While crop yields are being noticeably affected by declining soil organic matter and soil nutrients, in particular soil N, people in this region continue to be worried more about changing weather patterns than soil fertility.

Drought mitigation in perennial crops by fertilization and adjustments of regional yield models for future climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kantola, I. B.; Blanc-Betes, E.; Gomez-Casanovas, N.; Masters, M. D.; Bernacchi, C.; DeLucia, E. H.

2017-12-01

Increased variability and intensity of precipitation in the Midwest agricultural belt due to climate change is a major concern. The success of perennial bioenergy crops in replacing maize for bioethanol production is dependent on sustained yields that exceed maize, and the marketing of perennial crops often emphasizes the resilience of perennial agriculture to climate stressors. Land conversion from maize for bioethanol to Miscanthus x giganteus (miscanthus) increases yields and annual evapotranspiration rates (ET). However, establishment of miscanthus also increases biome water use efficiency (the ratio between net ecosystem productivity after harvest and ET), due to greater belowground biomass in miscanthus than in maize or soybean. In 2012, a widespread drought reduced the yield of 5-year-old miscanthus plots in central Illinois by 36% compared to the previous two years. Eddy covariance data indicated continued soil water deficit during the hydrologically-normal growing season in 2013 and miscanthus yield failed to rebound as expected, lagging behind pre-drought yields by an average of 53% over the next three years. In early 2014, nitrogen fertilizer was applied to half of mature (7-year-old) miscanthus plots in an effort to improve yields. In plots with annual post-emergence application of 60 kg ha-1 of urea, peak biomass was 29% greater than unfertilized miscanthus in 2014, and 113% greater in 2015, achieving statistically similar yields to the pre-drought average. Regional-scale models of perennial crop productivity use 30-year climate averages that are inadequate for predicting long-term effects of short-term extremes on perennial crops. Modeled predictions of perennial crop productivity incorporating repeated extreme weather events, observed crop response, and the use of management practices to mitigate water deficit demonstrate divergent effects on predicted yields.

Variability in soybean yield in Brazil stemming from the interaction of heterogeneous management and climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohn, A.; Bragança, A.; Jeffries, G. R.

2017-12-01

An increasing share of global agricultural production can be found in the humid tropics. Therefore, an improved understanding of the mechanisms governing variability in the output of tropical agricultural systems is of increasing importance for food security including through climate change adaptation. Yet, the long window over which many tropical crops can be sown, the diversity of crop varieties and management practices combine to challenge inference into climate risk to cropping output in analyses of tropical crop-climate sensitivity employing administrative data. In this paper, we leverage a newly developed spatially explicit dataset of soybean yields in Brazil to combat this problem. The dataset was built by training a model of remotely-sensed vegetation index data and land cover classification data using a rich in situ dataset of soybean yield and management variables collected over the period 2006 to 2016. The dataset contains soybean yields by plant date, cropping frequency, and maturity group for each 5km grid cell in Brazil. We model variation in these yields using an approach enabling the estimation of the influence of management factors on the sensitivity of soybean yields to variability in: cumulative solar radiation, extreme degree days, growing degree days, flooding rain in the harvest period, and dry spells in the rainy season. We find strong variation in climate sensitivity by management class. Planting date and maturity group each explained a great deal more variation in yield sensitivity than did cropping frequency. Brazil collects comparatively fine spatial resolution yield data. But, our attempt to replicate our results using administrative soy yield data revealed substantially lesser crop-climate sensitivity; suggesting that previous analyses employing administrative data may have underestimated climate risk to tropical soy production.

Enhanced leaf photosynthesis as a target to increase grain yield: insights from transgenic rice lines with variable Rieske FeS protein content in the cytochrome b6 /f complex.

PubMed

Yamori, Wataru; Kondo, Eri; Sugiura, Daisuke; Terashima, Ichiro; Suzuki, Yuji; Makino, Amane

2016-01-01

Although photosynthesis is the most important source for biomass and grain yield, a lack of correlation between photosynthesis and plant yield among different genotypes of various crop species has been frequently observed. Such observations contribute to the ongoing debate whether enhancing leaf photosynthesis can improve yield potential. Here, transgenic rice plants that contain variable amounts of the Rieske FeS protein in the cytochrome (cyt) b6 /f complex between 10 and 100% of wild-type levels have been used to investigate the effect of reductions of these proteins on photosynthesis, plant growth and yield. Reductions of the cyt b6 /f complex did not affect the electron transport rates through photosystem I but decreased electron transport rates through photosystem II, leading to concomitant decreases in CO2 assimilation rates. There was a strong control of plant growth and grain yield by the rate of leaf photosynthesis, leading to the conclusion that enhancing photosynthesis at the single-leaf level would be a useful target for improving crop productivity and yield both via conventional breeding and biotechnology. The data here also suggest that changing photosynthetic electron transport rates via manipulation of the cyt b6 /f complex could be a potential target for enhancing photosynthetic capacity in higher plants. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Application of genomics-assisted breeding for generation of climate resilient crops: progress and prospects

PubMed Central

Kole, Chittaranjan; Muthamilarasan, Mehanathan; Henry, Robert; Edwards, David; Sharma, Rishu; Abberton, Michael; Batley, Jacqueline; Bentley, Alison; Blakeney, Michael; Bryant, John; Cai, Hongwei; Cakir, Mehmet; Cseke, Leland J.; Cockram, James; de Oliveira, Antonio Costa; De Pace, Ciro; Dempewolf, Hannes; Ellison, Shelby; Gepts, Paul; Greenland, Andy; Hall, Anthony; Hori, Kiyosumi; Hughes, Stephen; Humphreys, Mike W.; Iorizzo, Massimo; Ismail, Abdelbagi M.; Marshall, Athole; Mayes, Sean; Nguyen, Henry T.; Ogbonnaya, Francis C.; Ortiz, Rodomiro; Paterson, Andrew H.; Simon, Philipp W.; Tohme, Joe; Tuberosa, Roberto; Valliyodan, Babu; Varshney, Rajeev K.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Yano, Masahiro; Prasad, Manoj

2015-01-01

Climate change affects agricultural productivity worldwide. Increased prices of food commodities are the initial indication of drastic edible yield loss, which is expected to increase further due to global warming. This situation has compelled plant scientists to develop climate change-resilient crops, which can withstand broad-spectrum stresses such as drought, heat, cold, salinity, flood, submergence and pests, thus helping to deliver increased productivity. Genomics appears to be a promising tool for deciphering the stress responsiveness of crop species with adaptation traits or in wild relatives toward identifying underlying genes, alleles or quantitative trait loci. Molecular breeding approaches have proven helpful in enhancing the stress adaptation of crop plants, and recent advances in high-throughput sequencing and phenotyping platforms have transformed molecular breeding to genomics-assisted breeding (GAB). In view of this, the present review elaborates the progress and prospects of GAB for improving climate change resilience in crops, which is likely to play an ever increasing role in the effort to ensure global food security. PMID:26322050

Application of genomics-assisted breeding for generation of climate resilient crops: progress and prospects.

PubMed

Kole, Chittaranjan; Muthamilarasan, Mehanathan; Henry, Robert; Edwards, David; Sharma, Rishu; Abberton, Michael; Batley, Jacqueline; Bentley, Alison; Blakeney, Michael; Bryant, John; Cai, Hongwei; Cakir, Mehmet; Cseke, Leland J; Cockram, James; de Oliveira, Antonio Costa; De Pace, Ciro; Dempewolf, Hannes; Ellison, Shelby; Gepts, Paul; Greenland, Andy; Hall, Anthony; Hori, Kiyosumi; Hughes, Stephen; Humphreys, Mike W; Iorizzo, Massimo; Ismail, Abdelbagi M; Marshall, Athole; Mayes, Sean; Nguyen, Henry T; Ogbonnaya, Francis C; Ortiz, Rodomiro; Paterson, Andrew H; Simon, Philipp W; Tohme, Joe; Tuberosa, Roberto; Valliyodan, Babu; Varshney, Rajeev K; Wullschleger, Stan D; Yano, Masahiro; Prasad, Manoj

2015-01-01

Climate change affects agricultural productivity worldwide. Increased prices of food commodities are the initial indication of drastic edible yield loss, which is expected to increase further due to global warming. This situation has compelled plant scientists to develop climate change-resilient crops, which can withstand broad-spectrum stresses such as drought, heat, cold, salinity, flood, submergence and pests, thus helping to deliver increased productivity. Genomics appears to be a promising tool for deciphering the stress responsiveness of crop species with adaptation traits or in wild relatives toward identifying underlying genes, alleles or quantitative trait loci. Molecular breeding approaches have proven helpful in enhancing the stress adaptation of crop plants, and recent advances in high-throughput sequencing and phenotyping platforms have transformed molecular breeding to genomics-assisted breeding (GAB). In view of this, the present review elaborates the progress and prospects of GAB for improving climate change resilience in crops, which is likely to play an ever increasing role in the effort to ensure global food security.

Evapotranspiration and crop coefficient of oil palm (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.) on the main nursery in a greenhouse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sigalingging, R.; Sumono; Rahmansyah, N.

2018-02-01

The estimation of crop water requirement is an important part of oil palm plantation because fruit yield of oil palm can be affected by water stress. Evapotranspiration and crop coefficient of oil palm using Tenera variety at 7-12 months old was determined. Soil texture was sandy loam with 73.8 % sand, 10.8 % silt, 15.77 % clay and 1.41 % organic matter. The results showed that the oil palm getting older decreased significantly in bulk density, particle density and porosity of soil caused the root of oil palm enlarged (19.42 g to 53.37 g). This was indicated by increased the dry root weight. On the other hand, the value of evapotranspiration and crop coefficient increased significantly, that was 1.85 to 2.00 mm/day and 0.8 to 0.87 respectively.

Lack of transgene and glyphosate effects on yield, and mineral and amino acid content of glyphosate-resistant soybean.

PubMed

Duke, Stephen O; Rimando, Agnes M; Reddy, Krishna N; Cizdziel, James V; Bellaloui, Nacer; Shaw, David R; Williams, Martin M; Maul, Jude E

2018-05-01

There has been controversy as to whether the glyphosate resistance gene and/or glyphosate applied to glyphosate-resistant (GR) soybean affect the content of cationic minerals (especially Mg, Mn and Fe), yield and amino acid content of GR soybean. A two-year field study (2013 and 2014) examined these questions at sites in Mississippi, USA. There were no effects of glyphosate, the GR transgene or field crop history (for a field with both no history of glyphosate use versus one with a long history of glyphosate use) on grain yield. Furthermore, these factors had no consistent effects on measured mineral (Al, As, Ba, Cd, Ca, Co, Cr, Cs, Cu, Fe, Ga, K, Li, Mg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Rb, Se, Sr, Tl, U, V, Zn) content of leaves or harvested seed. Effects on minerals were small and inconsistent between years, treatments and mineral, and appeared to be random false positives. No notable effects on free or protein amino acids of the seed were measured, although glyphosate and its degradation product, aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA), were found in the seed in concentrations consistent with previous studies. Neither glyphosate nor the GR transgene affect the content of the minerals measured in leaves and seed, harvested seed amino acid composition, or yield of GR soybean. Furthermore, soils with a legacy of GR crops have no effects on these parameters in soybean. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

Design and analysis of mixed cropping experiments for indigenous Pacific Islands

Treesearch

Mareko P. Tofinga

1993-01-01

Mixed cropping (including agroforestry) often gives yield advan-tages as opposed to monocropping. Many criteria have been used to assess yield advantage in crop mixtures. Some of these are presented. In addition, the relative merits of replacement, additive and bivariate factorial designs are discussed. The concepts of analysis of mixed cropping are applied to an...

Environmental limitation mapping of potential biomass resources across the conterminous United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daly, Christopher; Halbleib, Michael D.; Hannaway, David B.

Several crops have recently been identified as potential dedicated bioenergy feedstocks for the production of power, fuels, and bioproducts. Despite being identified as early as the 1980s, no systematic work has been undertaken to characterize the spatial distribution of their long-term production potentials in the United states. Such information is a starting point for planners and economic modelers, and there is a need for this spatial information to be developed in a consistent manner for a variety of crops, so that their production potentials can be intercompared to support crop selection decisions. As part of the Sun Grant Regional Feedstockmore » Partnership (RFP), an approach to mapping these potential biomass resources was developed to take advantage of the informational synergy realized when bringing together coordinated field trials, close interaction with expert agronomists, and spatial modeling into a single, collaborative effort. A modeling and mapping system called PRISM-ELM was designed to answer a basic question: How do climate and soil characteristics affect the spatial distribution and long-term production patterns of a given crop? This empirical/mechanistic/biogeographical hybrid model employs a limiting factor approach, where productivity is determined by the most limiting of the factors addressed in submodels that simulate water balance, winter low-temperature response, summer high-temperature response, and soil pH, salinity, and drainage. Yield maps are developed through linear regressions relating soil and climate attributes to reported yield data. The model was parameterized and validated using grain yield data for winter wheat and maize, which served as benchmarks for parameterizing the model for upland and lowland switchgrass, CRP grasses, Miscanthus, biomass sorghum, energycane, willow, and poplar. The resulting maps served as potential production inputs to analyses comparing the viability of biomass crops under various economic scenarios. The modeling and parameterization framework can be expanded to include other biomass crops.« less

Environmental limitation mapping of potential biomass resources across the conterminous United States

DOE PAGES

Daly, Christopher; Halbleib, Michael D.; Hannaway, David B.; ...

2017-12-22

Several crops have recently been identified as potential dedicated bioenergy feedstocks for the production of power, fuels, and bioproducts. Despite being identified as early as the 1980s, no systematic work has been undertaken to characterize the spatial distribution of their long-term production potentials in the United states. Such information is a starting point for planners and economic modelers, and there is a need for this spatial information to be developed in a consistent manner for a variety of crops, so that their production potentials can be intercompared to support crop selection decisions. As part of the Sun Grant Regional Feedstockmore » Partnership (RFP), an approach to mapping these potential biomass resources was developed to take advantage of the informational synergy realized when bringing together coordinated field trials, close interaction with expert agronomists, and spatial modeling into a single, collaborative effort. A modeling and mapping system called PRISM-ELM was designed to answer a basic question: How do climate and soil characteristics affect the spatial distribution and long-term production patterns of a given crop? This empirical/mechanistic/biogeographical hybrid model employs a limiting factor approach, where productivity is determined by the most limiting of the factors addressed in submodels that simulate water balance, winter low-temperature response, summer high-temperature response, and soil pH, salinity, and drainage. Yield maps are developed through linear regressions relating soil and climate attributes to reported yield data. The model was parameterized and validated using grain yield data for winter wheat and maize, which served as benchmarks for parameterizing the model for upland and lowland switchgrass, CRP grasses, Miscanthus, biomass sorghum, energycane, willow, and poplar. The resulting maps served as potential production inputs to analyses comparing the viability of biomass crops under various economic scenarios. The modeling and parameterization framework can be expanded to include other biomass crops.« less

Reducing nitrate loss in tile drainage water with cover crops and water-table management systems.

PubMed

Drury, C F; Tan, C S; Welacky, T W; Reynolds, W D; Zhang, T Q; Oloya, T O; McLaughlin, N B; Gaynor, J D

2014-03-01

Nitrate lost from agricultural soils is an economic cost to producers, an environmental concern when it enters rivers and lakes, and a health risk when it enters wells and aquifers used for drinking water. Planting a winter wheat cover crop (CC) and/or use of controlled tile drainage-subirrigation (CDS) may reduce losses of nitrate (NO) relative to no cover crop (NCC) and/or traditional unrestricted tile drainage (UTD). A 6-yr (1999-2005) corn-soybean study was conducted to determine the effectiveness of CC+CDS, CC+UTD, NCC+CDS, and NCC+UTD treatments for reducing NO loss. Flow volume and NO concentration in surface runoff and tile drainage were measured continuously, and CC reduced the 5-yr flow-weighted mean (FWM) NO concentration in tile drainage water by 21 to 38% and cumulative NO loss by 14 to 16% relative to NCC. Controlled tile drainage-subirrigation reduced FWM NO concentration by 15 to 33% and cumulative NO loss by 38 to 39% relative to UTD. When CC and CDS were combined, 5-yr cumulative FWM NO concentrations and loss in tile drainage were decreased by 47% (from 9.45 to 4.99 mg N L and from 102 to 53.6 kg N ha) relative to NCC+UTD. The reductions in runoff and concomitant increases in tile drainage under CC occurred primarily because of increases in near-surface soil hydraulic conductivity. Cover crops increased corn grain yields by 4 to 7% in 2004 increased 3-yr average soybean yields by 8 to 15%, whereas CDS did not affect corn or soybean yields over the 6 yr. The combined use of a cover crop and water-table management system was highly effective for reducing NO loss from cool, humid agricultural soils. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Agriculturally Relevant Climate Extremes and Their Trends in the World's Major Growing Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Xiao; Troy, Tara J.

2018-04-01

Climate extremes can negatively impact crop production, and climate change is expected to affect the frequency and severity of extremes. Using a combination of in situ station measurements (Global Historical Climatology Network's Daily data set) and multiple other gridded data products, a derived 1° data set of growing season climate indices and extremes is compiled over the major growing regions for maize, wheat, soybean, and rice for 1951-2006. This data set contains growing season climate indices that are agriculturally relevant, such as the number of hot days, duration of dry spells, and rainfall intensity. Before 1980, temperature-related indices had few trends; after 1980, statistically significant warming trends exist for each crop in the majority of growing regions. In particular, crops have increasingly been exposed to extreme hot temperatures, above which yields have been shown to decline. Rainfall trends are less consistent compared to temperature, with some regions receiving more rainfall and others less. Anomalous temperature and precipitation conditions are shown to often occur concurrently, with dry growing seasons more likely to be hotter, have larger drought indices, and have larger vapor pressure deficits. This leads to the confluence of a variety of climate conditions that negatively impact crop yields. These results show a consistent increase in global agricultural exposure to negative climate conditions since 1980.

Induction of abiotic stress tolerance in plants by endophytic microbes.

PubMed

Lata, R; Chowdhury, S; Gond, S K; White, J F

2018-04-01

Endophytes are micro-organisms including bacteria and fungi that survive within healthy plant tissues and promote plant growth under stress. This review focuses on the potential of endophytic microbes that induce abiotic stress tolerance in plants. How endophytes promote plant growth under stressful conditions, like drought and heat, high salinity and poor nutrient availability will be discussed. The molecular mechanisms for increasing stress tolerance in plants by endophytes include induction of plant stress genes as well as biomolecules like reactive oxygen species scavengers. This review may help in the development of biotechnological applications of endophytic microbes in plant growth promotion and crop improvement under abiotic stress conditions. Increasing human populations demand more crop yield for food security while crop production is adversely affected by abiotic stresses like drought, salinity and high temperature. Development of stress tolerance in plants is a strategy to cope with the negative effects of adverse environmental conditions. Endophytes are well recognized for plant growth promotion and production of natural compounds. The property of endophytes to induce stress tolerance in plants can be applied to increase crop yields. With this review, we intend to promote application of endophytes in biotechnology and genetic engineering for the development of stress-tolerant plants. © 2018 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

Midwest Agriculture: A comparison of AVHRR NDVI3g data and crop yields in Corn Belt region of the United States from 1982 to 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glennie, E.; Anyamba, A.; Eastman, R.

2016-12-01

A time series of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images was compared to National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) corn yield data in the Corn Belt of the United States from 1982 to 2014. The relationship between NDVI and crop yields under El Nino, neutral, and La Nina conditions was used to assess 1) the reliability of using NDVI as an indicator of crop productivity, and 2) the response of the Corn Belt to El Nino/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection effects. First, bi-monthly NDVI data were combined into monthly data using the maximum value compositing technique to reduce cloud contamination and other effects. The most representative seasonal curve of NDVI values over the course of the study period was extracted to define the growing season in the region - May to October. Standardized NDVI anomalies were calculated and averaged to produce a growing season NDVI metrics to represent each Agricultural Statistics Division (ASD) for each year in the study period. The corn yields were detrended in order to remove effects of technological advancements on crop productivity (use of genetically modified seeds, fertilizer, herbicides). Correlation (R) values between the NDVI anomalies and detrended corn yields varied across the Corn Belt, with a maximum of 0.81 and mean of 0.49. While corn is the dominant crop in the region, some inconsistencies between corn yield and NDVI may be accounted for by an increase in soy yield for a given year due to crop rotation practices. The 10 El Nino events and 9 La Nina events that occurred between 1982 and 2014 are not reflected in a consistent manner in NDVI or corn yield data. However, composites of NDVI and crop yields for all El Nino events indicate there is a tendency for higher than normal NDVI and increased corn yields. Conversely, the composite crop yield image for La Nina events shows a slight decrease in productivity.

Adaptive nitrogen and integrated weed management in conservation agriculture: impacts on agronomic productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and herbicide residues.

PubMed

Oyeogbe, Anthony Imoudu; Das, T K; Bhatia, Arti; Singh, Shashi Bala

2017-04-01

Increasing nitrogen (N) immobilization and weed interference in the early phase of implementation of conservation agriculture (CA) affects crop yields. Yet, higher fertilizer and herbicide use to improve productivity influences greenhouse gase emissions and herbicide residues. These tradeoffs precipitated a need for adaptive N and integrated weed management in CA-based maize (Zea mays L.)-wheat [Triticum aestivum (L.) emend Fiori & Paol] cropping system in the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) to optimize N availability and reduce weed proliferation. Adaptive N fertilization was based on soil test value and normalized difference vegetation index measurement (NDVM) by GreenSeeker™ technology, while integrated weed management included brown manuring (Sesbania aculeata L. co-culture, killed at 25 days after sowing), herbicide mixture, and weedy check (control, i.e., without weed management). Results indicated that the 'best-adaptive N rate' (i.e., 50% basal + 25% broadcast at 25 days after sowing + supplementary N guided by NDVM) increased maize and wheat grain yields by 20 and 14% (averaged for 2 years), respectively, compared with whole recommended N applied at sowing. Weed management by brown manuring (during maize) and herbicide mixture (during wheat) resulted in 10 and 21% higher grain yields (averaged for 2 years), respectively, over the weedy check. The NDVM in-season N fertilization and brown manuring affected N 2 O and CO 2 emissions, but resulted in improved carbon storage efficiency, while herbicide residuals in soil were significantly lower in the maize season than in wheat cropping. This study concludes that adaptive N and integrated weed management enhance synergy between agronomic productivity, fertilizer and herbicide efficiency, and greenhouse gas mitigation.

Effects of arbuscular mycorrhizae on tomato yield, nutrient uptake, water relations, and soil carbon dynamics under deficit irrigation in field conditions.

PubMed

Bowles, Timothy M; Barrios-Masias, Felipe H; Carlisle, Eli A; Cavagnaro, Timothy R; Jackson, Louise E

2016-10-01

Plant strategies to cope with future droughts may be enhanced by associations between roots and soil microorganisms, including arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi. But how AM fungi affect crop growth and yield, together with plant physiology and soil carbon (C) dynamics, under water stress in actual field conditions is not well understood. The well-characterized mycorrhizal tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) genotype 76R (referred to as MYC+) and the mutant nonmycorrhizal tomato genotype rmc were grown in an organic farm with a deficit irrigation regime and control regime that replaced evapotranspiration. AM increased marketable tomato yields by ~25% in both irrigation regimes but did not affect shoot biomass. In both irrigation regimes, MYC+ plants had higher plant nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations (e.g. 5 and 24% higher N and P concentrations in leaves at fruit set, respectively), 8% higher stomatal conductance (gs), 7% higher photosynthetic rates (Pn), and greater fruit set. Stem water potential and leaf relative water content were similar in both genotypes within each irrigation regime. Three-fold higher rates of root sap exudation in detopped MYC+ plants suggest greater capacity for water uptake through osmotic driven flow, especially in the deficit irrigation regime in which root sap exudation in rmc was nearly absent. Soil with MYC+ plants also had slightly higher soil extractable organic C and microbial biomass C at anthesis but no changes in soil CO2 emissions, although the latter were 23% lower under deficit irrigation. This study provides novel, field-based evidence for how indigenous AM fungi increase crop yield and crop water use efficiency during a season-long deficit irrigation and thus play an important role in coping with increasingly limited water availability in the future. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of salinity stress on phenotypic plasticity, yield stability, and signature of stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen in safflower.

PubMed

Hussain, Muhammad Iftikhar; Al-Dakheel, Abdullah J

2018-06-05

Salinity is one of the major factors contributing in land degradation, disturbance of soil biology, a structure that leads to unproductive land with low crop yield potential especially in arid and semiarid regions of the world. Appropriate crops with sufficient stress tolerance capacity and non-conventional water resources should have to be managed in a sustainable way to bring these marginal lands under cultivation for future food security. The goal of the present study was to evaluate salinity tolerant potential (0, 7, and 14 dS m -1 ) of six safflower genotypes that can be adapted to the hyper arid climate of UAE and its marginal soil. Several agro-morphological and physiological traits such as plant dry biomass (PDM), number of branches (BN), number of capitula (CN), seed yield (SY), stable isotope composition of nitrogen (δ 15 N) and carbon (δ 13 C), intercellular CO 2 concentration from inside to ambient air (Ci/Ca), intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE), carbon (C%) and nitrogen (N %), and harvest index (HI) were evaluated as indicative of the functional performance of safflower genotypes under salt stress. Results indicated that salinity significantly affected the seed yield at all levels and varied significantly among genotypes. The BN, PDM, CN, and δ 13 C attributes showed clear differentiation between tolerant and susceptible genotypes. The δ 13 C results indicate that the tolerant genotypes suffer less from stress, may be due to better rooting. Tolerant genotypes showed lower iWUE values but possess higher yield. Safflower genotypes (PI248836 and PI167390) proved to be salt tolerant, stable, and higher seed and biomass yielder. There was no G × E interaction but the genotypes that produce higher yield under control were still best even under salt stress conditions. Although salinity reduced crop yield, some tolerant genotypes demonstrate adaptation and good yield potential under saline marginal environment.

Productivity and nutrient cycling in bioenergy cropping systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heggenstaller, Andrew Howard

One of the greatest obstacles confronting large-scale biomass production for energy applications is the development of cropping systems that balance the need for increased productive capacity with the maintenance of other critical ecosystem functions including nutrient cycling and retention. To address questions of productivity and nutrient dynamics in bioenergy cropping systems, we conducted two sets of field experiments during 2005-2007, investigating annual and perennial cropping systems designed to generate biomass energy feedstocks. In the first experiment we evaluated productivity and crop and soil nutrient dynamics in three prototypical bioenergy double-crop systems, and in a conventionally managed sole-crop corn system. Double-cropping systems included fall-seeded forage triticale (x Triticosecale Wittmack), succeeded by one of three summer-adapted crops: corn (Zea mays L.), sorghum-sudangrass [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench], or sunn hemp (Crotalaria juncea L.). Total dry matter production was greater for triticale/corn and triticale/sorghum-sudangrass compared to sole-crop corn. Functional growth analysis revealed that photosynthetic duration was more important than photosynthetic efficiency in determining biomass productivity of sole-crop corn and double-crop triticale/corn, and that greater yield in the tiritcale/corn system was the outcome of photosynthesis occurring over an extended duration. Increased growth duration in double-crop systems was also associated with reductions in potentially leachable soil nitrogen relative to sole-crop corn. However, nutrient removal in harvested biomass was also greater in the double-crop systems, indicating that over the long-term, double-cropping would mandate increased fertilizer inputs. In a second experiment we assessed the effects of N fertilization on biomass and nutrient partitioning between aboveground and belowground crop components, and on carbon storage by four perennial, warm-season grasses: big bluestem (Andropogon geradii Vitman), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), indiangrass [ Sorghastrum nutans (L.) Nash], and eastern gamagrass (Tripsacum dactyloides L.). Generally, the optimum rate of fertilization for biomass yield by the grasses was 140 kg N ha-1. Nitrogen inputs also had pronounced but grass-specific effects on biomass and nutrient partitioning, and on carbon storage. For big bluestem and switchgrass, 140 kg N ha -1. maximized root biomass, favored allocation of nutrients to roots over shoots, and led to net increases in carbon storage over the study duration. In contrast, for indiangrass and eastern gamagrass, root biomass and root nutrient allocation were generally adversely affected by N fertilization and carbon storage increased only with 0 or 65 kg N ha-1. For all grasses, 220 kg N ha -1 tended to shift allocation of nutrients to shoots over roots and resulted in no net increase in carbon storage. Optimal nitrogen management strategies for perennial, warm-season grass energy crops should take into consideration the effects of N on biomass yield as well as factors such as nutrient and carbon balance that will also impact economic feasibility and environmental sustainability.

Nation-wide assessment of climate change impacts on crops in the Philippines and Peru as part of multi-disciplinary modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

2016-04-01

Agriculture is vulnerable to environmental changes, and climate change has been recognized as one of the most devastating factors. In many developing countries, however, few studies have focused on nation-wide assessment of crop yield and crop suitability in the future, and hence there is a large pressure on science to provide policy makers with solid predictions for major crops in the countries in support of climate risk management policies and programmes. FAO has developed the tool MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change) where statistical climate downscaling is combined with crop yield projections under climate change scenarios. Three steps are required to get the results: 1. The historical meteorological data such as temperature and precipitation for about 30 years were collected, and future climates were statistically downscaled to the local scale, 2. The historical crop yield data were collected and regression functions were made to estimate the yield by using observed climatic data and water balance during the growing period for each crop, and 3. The yield changes in the future were estimated by using the future climate data, produced by the first step, as an input to the yield regression functions. The yield was first simulated at sub-national scale and aggregated to national scale, which is intended to provide national policies with adaptation options. The methodology considers future changes in characteristics of extreme weather events as the climate projections are on daily scale while crop simulations are on 10-daily scale. Yields were simulated with two greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs) for three GCMs per crop to account for uncertainties in projections. The crop assessment constitutes a larger multi-disciplinary assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture and vulnerability of livelihoods in terms of food security (e.g. water resources, agriculture market, household-level food security from socio-economic perspective). In our presentation we will show the cases of Peru and the Philippines, and discuss the implications for agriculture policies and risk management.

Trading carbon for food: global comparison of carbon stocks vs. crop yields on agricultural land.

PubMed

West, Paul C; Gibbs, Holly K; Monfreda, Chad; Wagner, John; Barford, Carol C; Carpenter, Stephen R; Foley, Jonathan A

2010-11-16

Expanding croplands to meet the needs of a growing population, changing diets, and biofuel production comes at the cost of reduced carbon stocks in natural vegetation and soils. Here, we present a spatially explicit global analysis of tradeoffs between carbon stocks and current crop yields. The difference among regions is striking. For example, for each unit of land cleared, the tropics lose nearly two times as much carbon (∼120 tons·ha(-1) vs. ∼63 tons·ha(-1)) and produce less than one-half the annual crop yield compared with temperate regions (1.71 tons·ha(-1)·y(-1) vs. 3.84 tons·ha(-1)·y(-1)). Therefore, newly cleared land in the tropics releases nearly 3 tons of carbon for every 1 ton of annual crop yield compared with a similar area cleared in the temperate zone. By factoring crop yield into the analysis, we specify the tradeoff between carbon stocks and crops for all areas where crops are currently grown and thereby, substantially enhance the spatial resolution relative to previous regional estimates. Particularly in the tropics, emphasis should be placed on increasing yields on existing croplands rather than clearing new lands. Our high-resolution approach can be used to determine the net effect of local land use decisions.

Network Candidate Genes in Breeding for Drought Tolerant Crops

PubMed Central

Krannich, Christoph Tim; Maletzki, Lisa; Kurowsky, Christina; Horn, Renate

2015-01-01

Climate change leading to increased periods of low water availability as well as increasing demands for food in the coming years makes breeding for drought tolerant crops a high priority. Plants have developed diverse strategies and mechanisms to survive drought stress. However, most of these represent drought escape or avoidance strategies like early flowering or low stomatal conductance that are not applicable in breeding for crops with high yields under drought conditions. Even though a great deal of research is ongoing, especially in cereals, in this regard, not all mechanisms involved in drought tolerance are yet understood. The identification of candidate genes for drought tolerance that have a high potential to be used for breeding drought tolerant crops represents a challenge. Breeding for drought tolerant crops has to focus on acceptable yields under water-limited conditions and not on survival. However, as more and more knowledge about the complex networks and the cross talk during drought is available, more options are revealed. In addition, it has to be considered that conditioning a crop for drought tolerance might require the production of metabolites and might cost the plants energy and resources that cannot be used in terms of yield. Recent research indicates that yield penalty exists and efficient breeding for drought tolerant crops with acceptable yields under well-watered and drought conditions might require uncoupling yield penalty from drought tolerance. PMID:26193269

Network Candidate Genes in Breeding for Drought Tolerant Crops.

PubMed

Krannich, Christoph Tim; Maletzki, Lisa; Kurowsky, Christina; Horn, Renate

2015-07-17

Climate change leading to increased periods of low water availability as well as increasing demands for food in the coming years makes breeding for drought tolerant crops a high priority. Plants have developed diverse strategies and mechanisms to survive drought stress. However, most of these represent drought escape or avoidance strategies like early flowering or low stomatal conductance that are not applicable in breeding for crops with high yields under drought conditions. Even though a great deal of research is ongoing, especially in cereals, in this regard, not all mechanisms involved in drought tolerance are yet understood. The identification of candidate genes for drought tolerance that have a high potential to be used for breeding drought tolerant crops represents a challenge. Breeding for drought tolerant crops has to focus on acceptable yields under water-limited conditions and not on survival. However, as more and more knowledge about the complex networks and the cross talk during drought is available, more options are revealed. In addition, it has to be considered that conditioning a crop for drought tolerance might require the production of metabolites and might cost the plants energy and resources that cannot be used in terms of yield. Recent research indicates that yield penalty exists and efficient breeding for drought tolerant crops with acceptable yields under well-watered and drought conditions might require uncoupling yield penalty from drought tolerance.

Effects of abiotic stress and crop management on cereal grain composition: implications for food quality and safety.

PubMed

Halford, Nigel G; Curtis, Tanya Y; Chen, Zhiwei; Huang, Jianhua

2015-03-01

The effects of abiotic stresses and crop management on cereal grain composition are reviewed, focusing on phytochemicals, vitamins, fibre, protein, free amino acids, sugars, and oils. These effects are discussed in the context of nutritional and processing quality and the potential for formation of processing contaminants, such as acrylamide, furan, hydroxymethylfurfuryl, and trans fatty acids. The implications of climate change for cereal grain quality and food safety are considered. It is concluded that the identification of specific environmental stresses that affect grain composition in ways that have implications for food quality and safety and how these stresses interact with genetic factors and will be affected by climate change needs more investigation. Plant researchers and breeders are encouraged to address the issue of processing contaminants or risk appearing out of touch with major end-users in the food industry, and not to overlook the effects of environmental stresses and crop management on crop composition, quality, and safety as they strive to increase yield. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Sugarcane and other crops as fuel feedstocks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Irvine, J.E.

1980-07-01

The use of sugarcane as a feedstock for fuel alcohol production in Brazil, and in Zimbabwe Rhodesia and Panama stimulated tremendous interest in the potential of agricultural crops for renewable energy sources. The cost of the feedstock is important. Corn, the current major agricultural feedstock in US fuel alcohol production, costs 60 to 80% of the selling price of the alcohol produced from it. Production costs for sugarcane and sugarbeets are higher than for corn. Sugarcane and sugarbeets, yield more fermentable carbohydrates per acre than any other crop. Sugarcane has the distinct advantage of containing a large amount of fibermore » in the harvested portion. The feedstock cost of sugarcane can be reduced by producing more cane per acre. Sweet sorghum has been discussed as a fuel crop. Cassana, the tapioca source, is thought to be a fuel crop of major potential. Feedstock cost can also be reduced through management decisions that reduce costly practices. Cultivation and fertilizer costs can be reduced. The operating cost of the processing plant is affected by the choice of crops grown for feedstock, both by their cost and by availability. (DP)« less

Impact of Conventional and Integrated Management Systems on the Water-Soluble Vitamin Content in Potatoes, Field Beans, and Cereals.

PubMed

Freitag, Sabine; Verrall, Susan R; Pont, Simon D A; McRae, Diane; Sungurtas, Julia A; Palau, Raphaëlle; Hawes, Cathy; Alexander, Colin J; Allwood, J William; Foito, Alexandre; Stewart, Derek; Shepherd, Louise V T

2018-01-31

The reduction of the environmental footprint of crop production without compromising crop yield and their nutritional value is a key goal for improving the sustainability of agriculture. In 2009, the Balruddery Farm Platform was established at The James Hutton Institute as a long-term experimental platform for cross-disciplinary research of crops using two agricultural ecosystems. Crops representative of UK agriculture were grown under conventional and integrated management systems and analyzed for their water-soluble vitamin content. Integrated management, when compared with the conventional system, had only minor effects on water-soluble vitamin content, where significantly higher differences were seen for the conventional management practice on the levels of thiamine in field beans (p < 0.01), Spring barley (p < 0.05), and Winter wheat (p < 0.05), and for nicotinic acid in Spring barley (p < 0.05). However, for all crops, variety and year differences were of greater importance. These results indicate that the integrated management system described in this study does not significantly affect the water-soluble vitamin content of the crops analyzed here.

Modelling crop yield in Iberia under drought conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro, Andreia; Páscoa, Patrícia; Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia

2017-04-01

The improved assessment of the cereal yield and crop loss under drought conditions are essential to meet the increasing economy demands. The growing frequency and severity of the extreme drought conditions in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) has been likely responsible for negative impacts on agriculture, namely on crop yield losses. Therefore, a continuous monitoring of vegetation activity and a reliable estimation of drought impacts is crucial to contribute for the agricultural drought management and development of suitable information tools. This works aims to assess the influence of drought conditions in agricultural yields over the IP, considering cereal yields from mainly rainfed agriculture for the provinces with higher productivity. The main target is to develop a strategy to model drought risk on agriculture for wheat yield at a province level. In order to achieve this goal a combined assessment was made using a drought indicator (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI) to evaluate drought conditions together with a widely used vegetation index (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) to monitor vegetation activity. A correlation analysis between detrended wheat yield and SPEI was performed in order to assess the vegetation response to each time scale of drought occurrence and also identify the moment of the vegetative cycle when the crop yields are more vulnerable to drought conditions. The time scales and months of SPEI, together with the months of NDVI, better related with wheat yield were chosen to perform a multivariate regression analysis to simulate crop yield. Model results are satisfactory and highlighted the usefulness of such analysis in the framework of developing a drought risk model for crop yields. In terms of an operational point of view, the results aim to contribute to an improved understanding of crop yield management under dry conditions, particularly adding substantial information on the advantages of combining vegetation and hydro-meteorological drought indices for the assessment of cereal yield. Moreover, the present study will provide some guidance on user's decision making process in agricultural practices in the IP, assisting farmers in deciding whether to purchase crop insurance. Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project IMDROFLOOD (WaterJPI/0004/2014). Ana Russo thanks FCT for granted support (SFRH/BPD/99757/2014). Andreia Ribeiro also thanks FCT for grant PD/BD/114481/2016.

Strengths and Limitations of Operational Use of 1 Km EO Biophysical Products for Regional Prediction of Grain Yelds in Europe (wheat, barley and maize)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meroni, M.; LEO, O.; Lopez-Lozano, R.; Baruth, B.; Duveiller, G.; Garcia-Condado, S.; Hooker, J.; Seguini, L.

2014-12-01

The site-specific relationship between EO indicators and actual crop yields has been explored in many different studies, describing semi-empirical regression models between spatially aggregated biophysical parameters or vegetation indices and observed yields (from field measurements or official statistics). However, when considering larger extensions -from countries to continents- agro-climatic conditions and crop management may differ substantially among regions, and these differences may greatly influence the relationship between biophysical indicators and the observed yields, which may be also driven by limiting factors other than green biomass formation. The present study aims to better assess the contribution of EO indicators within an operational crop yield forecasting system in Europe and neighbouring countries, by evaluating how these above mentioned geographic differences influence the relationship between biophysical indicators and crop yield. We therefore explore, as a first step, the correspondence between fAPAR time-series (1999-2013) and the inter-annual yield variability of wheat, barley and grain maize, at sub-national level across Europe (270-450 Administrative Units, depending on crop). In a second step, we map the agro-climatic contexts in which EO indicators better explain the observed yield inter-annual variability, identify the influence of some meteorological events on the fAPAR -yield relationship and provide some recommendations for further investigation. The results indicate that in water-limited environments (e.g. Mediterranean and Black Sea areas), fAPAR is highly correlated with yields whereas in northern Europe, crop yield appears much less limited by leaf area expansion along the season, and the relationship between yield and EO products becomes more difficult to interpret.

Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yi; Zhang, Zhao; Tao, Fulu

2018-05-01

A new temperature goal of holding the increase in global average temperature well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels has been established in the Paris Agreement, which calls for an understanding of climate risk under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate change on growth and productivity of three major crops (i.e. maize, wheat, rice) in China during 2106-2115 in warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0 °C using a method of ensemble simulation with well-validated Model to capture the Crop-Weather relationship over a Large Area (MCWLA) family crop models, their 10 sets of optimal crop model parameters and 70 climate projections from four global climate models. We presented the spatial patterns of changes in crop growth duration, crop yield, impacts of heat and drought stress, as well as crop yield variability and the probability of crop yield decrease. Results showed that climate change would have major negative impacts on crop production, particularly for wheat in north China, rice in south China and maize across the major cultivation areas, due to a decrease in crop growth duration and an increase in extreme events. By contrast, with moderate increases in temperature, solar radiation, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration, agricultural climate resources such as light and thermal resources could be ameliorated, which would enhance canopy photosynthesis and consequently biomass accumulations and yields. The moderate climate change would slightly worsen the maize growth environment but would result in a much more appropriate growth environment for wheat and rice. As a result, wheat, rice and maize yields would change by +3.9 (+8.6), +4.1 (+9.4) and +0.2 % (-1.7 %), respectively, in a warming scenario of 1.5 °C (2.0 °C). In general, the warming scenarios would bring more opportunities than risks for crop development and food security in China. Moreover, although the variability of crop yield would increase from 1.5 °C warming to 2.0 °C warming, the probability of a crop yield decrease would decrease. Our findings highlight that the 2.0 °C warming scenario would be more suitable for crop production in China, but more attention should be paid to the expected increase in extreme event impacts.

Simulated soil organic carbon changes in Maryland are affected by tillage, climate change, and crop yield

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The impact of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in no-till (NT) and conventionally-tilled (CT) agricultural systems is poorly understood. The objective of this study was to simulate the impact of projected climate change (air temperature and precipitation) on SOC to 50 cm soil depth...

Organic and inorganic amendments affect vegetation growth on an acidic minesoil

Treesearch

William T. Plass

1982-01-01

Organic amendments can be included in minesoil revegetation treatments to produce high-density ground covers or increase the yield of pasture and forage crops. They may provide an alternative to the "topsoiling" requirements under current surface-mining laws and regulations. In this study, shredded hardwood bark, composted municipal waste, and a tannery waste...

Crystal structure of Os79 (Os04g0206600) from Oryza sativa: a UDP-glucosyltransferase involved in the detoxification of deoxynivalenol

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Fusarium head blight is a plant disease with significant agricultural and health impact which affects cereal crops such as wheat, barley, and maize and is characterized by reduced grain yield and the accumulation of trichothecene mycotoxins such as deoxynivalenol (DON). Studies have identified trich...

Secondary Agricultural Education Teachers as Agents of Change in Oklahoma and the Adoption of Precision Agriculture

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nickeson, Beth

2013-01-01

Research indicates that precision agricultural education (PAE) in Oklahoma affects environmental quality, water conservation, and crop yields. The purpose of this mixed methods study was to explore the nature and perceived effectiveness of PAE in Oklahoma secondary agricultural education classes. The study was framed by the diffusion of…

Elevated CO2, warmer temperatures and soil water deficit affect plant growth, physiology and water use of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Changes in temperature, atmospheric [CO2] and precipitation under the scenarios of projected climate change present a challenge to crop production, and may have significant impacts on the physiology, growth and yield of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.). A glasshouse experiment explored the early growt...

First report of QoI resistance in Alternaria spp. infecting sugar beet (Beta vulgaris) in Michigan, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Alternaria leaf spot (ALS) of sugar beet is caused by Alternaria spp. in the A. alternata species complex. ALS is common wherever sugar beet is grown, but historically has been a minor issue for sugar beet production in the USA with damage usually not affecting crop yield significantly. Occurrence o...

Crop status evaluations and yield predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haun, J. R.

1976-01-01

One phase of the large area crop inventory project is presented. Wheat yield models based on the input of environmental variables potentially obtainable through the use of space remote sensing were developed and demonstrated. By the use of a unique method for visually qualifying daily plant development and subsequent multifactor computer analyses, it was possible to develop practical models for predicting crop development and yield. Development of wheat yield prediction models was based on the discovery that morphological changes in plants are detected and quantified on a daily basis, and that this change during a portion of the season was proportional to yield.

Climate change impacts on crop yield: evidence from China.

PubMed

Wei, Taoyuan; Cherry, Todd L; Glomrød, Solveig; Zhang, Tianyi

2014-11-15

When estimating climate change impact on crop yield, a typical assumption is constant elasticity of yield with respect to a climate variable even though the elasticity may be inconstant. After estimating both constant and inconstant elasticities with respect to temperature and precipitation based on provincial panel data in China 1980-2008, our results show that during that period, the temperature change contributes positively to total yield growth by 1.3% and 0.4% for wheat and rice, respectively, but negatively by 12% for maize. The impacts of precipitation change are marginal. We also compare our estimates with other studies and highlight the implications of the inconstant elasticities for crop yield, harvest and food security. We conclude that climate change impact on crop yield would not be an issue in China if positive impacts of other socio-economic factors continue in the future. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation.

PubMed

Ray, Deepak K; Ramankutty, Navin; Mueller, Nathaniel D; West, Paul C; Foley, Jonathan A

2012-01-01

In the coming decades, continued population growth, rising meat and dairy consumption and expanding biofuel use will dramatically increase the pressure on global agriculture. Even as we face these future burdens, there have been scattered reports of yield stagnation in the world's major cereal crops, including maize, rice and wheat. Here we study data from ∼2.5 million census observations across the globe extending over the period 1961-2008. We examined the trends in crop yields for four key global crops: maize, rice, wheat and soybeans. Although yields continue to increase in many areas, we find that across 24-39% of maize-, rice-, wheat- and soybean-growing areas, yields either never improve, stagnate or collapse. This result underscores the challenge of meeting increasing global agricultural demands. New investments in underperforming regions, as well as strategies to continue increasing yields in the high-performing areas, are required.

Improved Satellite-based Crop Yield Mapping by Spatially Explicit Parameterization of Crop Phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Z.; Azzari, G.; Lobell, D. B.

2016-12-01

Field-scale mapping of crop yields with satellite data often relies on the use of crop simulation models. However, these approaches can be hampered by inaccuracies in the simulation of crop phenology. Here we present and test an approach to use dense time series of Landsat 7 and 8 acquisitions data to calibrate various parameters related to crop phenology simulation, such as leaf number and leaf appearance rates. These parameters are then mapped across the Midwestern United States for maize and soybean, and for two different simulation models. We then implement our recently developed Scalable satellite-based Crop Yield Mapper (SCYM) with simulations reflecting the improved phenology parameterizations, and compare to prior estimates based on default phenology routines. Our preliminary results show that the proposed method can effectively alleviate the underestimation of early-season LAI by the default Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), and that spatially explicit parameterization for the phenology model substantially improves the SCYM performance in capturing the spatiotemporal variation in maize and soybean yield. The scheme presented in our study thus preserves the scalability of SCYM, while significantly reducing its uncertainty.

Monitoring Crop Productivity over the U.S. Corn Belt using an Improved Light Use Efficiency Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, X.; Xiao, X.; Zhang, Y.; Qin, Y.; Doughty, R.

2017-12-01

Large-scale monitoring of crop yield is of great significance for forecasting food production and prices and ensuring food security. Satellite data that provide temporally and spatially continuous information that by themselves or in combination with other data or models, raises possibilities to monitor and understand agricultural productivity regionally. In this study, we first used an improved light use efficiency model-Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM) to simulate the gross primary production (GPP). Model evaluation showed that the simulated GPP (GPPVPM) could well captured the spatio-temporal variation of GPP derived from FLUXNET sites. Then we applied the GPPVPM to further monitor crop productivity for corn and soybean over the U.S. Corn Belt and benchmarked with county-level crop yield statistics. We found VPM-based approach provides pretty good estimates (R2 = 0.88, slope = 1.03). We further showed the impacts of climate extremes on the crop productivity and carbon use efficiency. The study indicates the great potential of VPM in estimating crop yield and in understanding of crop yield responses to climate variability and change.

Uncertainties in Predicting Rice Yield by Current Crop Models Under a Wide Range of Climatic Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Tao; Hasegawa, Toshihiro; Yin, Xinyou; Zhu, Yan; Boote, Kenneth; Adam, Myriam; Bregaglio, Simone; Buis, Samuel; Confalonieri, Roberto; Fumoto, Tamon;

Improving the monitoring of crop productivity using spaceborne solar-induced fluorescence.

PubMed

Guan, Kaiyu; Berry, Joseph A; Zhang, Yongguang; Joiner, Joanna; Guanter, Luis; Badgley, Grayson; Lobell, David B

2016-02-01

Large-scale monitoring of crop growth and yield has important value for forecasting food production and prices and ensuring regional food security. A newly emerging satellite retrieval, solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) of chlorophyll, provides for the first time a direct measurement related to plant photosynthetic activity (i.e. electron transport rate). Here, we provide a framework to link SIF retrievals and crop yield, accounting for stoichiometry, photosynthetic pathways, and respiration losses. We apply this framework to estimate United States crop productivity for 2007-2012, where we use the spaceborne SIF retrievals from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 satellite, benchmarked with county-level crop yield statistics, and compare it with various traditional crop monitoring approaches. We find that a SIF-based approach accounting for photosynthetic pathways (i.e. C3 and C4 crops) provides the best measure of crop productivity among these approaches, despite the fact that SIF sensors are not yet optimized for terrestrial applications. We further show that SIF provides the ability to infer the impacts of environmental stresses on autotrophic respiration and carbon-use-efficiency, with a substantial sensitivity of both to high temperatures. These results indicate new opportunities for improved mechanistic understanding of crop yield responses to climate variability and change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Improving the Monitoring of Crop Productivity Using Spaceborne Solar-Induced Fluorescence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guan, Kaiyu; Berry, Joseph A.; Zhang, Yongguang; Joiner, Joanna; Guanter, Luis; Badgley, Grayson; Lobell, David B.

2015-01-01

Large-scale monitoring of crop growth and yield has important value for forecasting food production and prices and ensuring regional food security. A newly emerging satellite retrieval, solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) of chlorophyll, provides for the first time a direct measurement related to plant photosynthetic activity (i.e. electron transport rate). Here, we provide a framework to link SIF retrievals and crop yield, accounting for stoichiometry, photosynthetic pathways, and respiration losses. We apply this framework to estimate United States crop productivity for 2007-2012, where we use the spaceborne SIF retrievals from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 satellite, benchmarked with county-level crop yield statistics, and compare it with various traditional crop monitoring approaches. We find that a SIF-based approach accounting for photosynthetic pathways (i.e. C3 and C4 crops) provides the best measure of crop productivity among these approaches, despite the fact that SIF sensors are not yet optimized for terrestrial applications. We further show that SIF provides the ability to infer the impacts of environmental stresses on autotrophic respiration and carbon-use-efficiency, with a substantial sensitivity of both to high temperatures. These results indicate new opportunities for improved mechanistic understanding of crop yield responses to climate variability and change.

Effect of Tillage Practices on Soil Properties and Crop Productivity in Wheat-Mungbean-Rice Cropping System under Subtropical Climatic Conditions

PubMed Central

Islam, Md. Monirul; Hasanuzzaman, Mirza

2014-01-01

This study was conducted to know cropping cycles required to improve OM status in soil and to investigate the effects of medium-term tillage practices on soil properties and crop yields in Grey Terrace soil of Bangladesh under wheat-mungbean-T. aman cropping system. Four different tillage practices, namely, zero tillage (ZT), minimum tillage (MT), conventional tillage (CT), and deep tillage (DT), were studied in a randomized complete block (RCB) design with four replications. Tillage practices showed positive effects on soil properties and crop yields. After four cropping cycles, the highest OM accumulation, the maximum root mass density (0–15 cm soil depth), and the improved physical and chemical properties were recorded in the conservational tillage practices. Bulk and particle densities were decreased due to tillage practices, having the highest reduction of these properties and the highest increase of porosity and field capacity in zero tillage. The highest total N, P, K, and S in their available forms were recorded in zero tillage. All tillage practices showed similar yield after four years of cropping cycles. Therefore, we conclude that zero tillage with 20% residue retention was found to be suitable for soil health and achieving optimum yield under the cropping system in Grey Terrace soil (Aeric Albaquept). PMID:25197702

[Changes of diversity and composition of fungal communities in rhizosphere of Panax ginseng].

PubMed

Dong, Lin-Lin; Niu, Wei-Hao; Wang, Rui; Xu, Jiang; Zhang, Lian-Juan; Zhang, Jun; Chen, Shi-Lin

2017-02-01

Continuous cropping obstacles resulted in the yield losses of Panax ginseng, and affected the development of ginseng industry. Soil fungal communities participated in the key ecological process, and their changes of diversity and composition were related to the continuous cropping obstacles. We analyzed the changes of fungal diversity and composition in the rhizosphere of ginseng using the high-throughput sequencing method, stated the effects of ginseng cultivation on the micro-ecology, and provided effective strategies for overcoming continuous cropping obstacles. Compared to those of the forest soils, the fungal diversity of ginseng rhizosphere soils was increased, and the increasing trends were declined with an increasing years of ginseng cultivation; the relative abundance of Sordariomycetes, Alatospora, Eurotiomycetes, Leotiomycetes, Saccharomycetes, Mucorales and Pezizomycetes were increased in the rhizosphere of ginseng. Pearson's correlation index indicated that soil chemical perporties affected the relative abundance of fungal communities. pH was significantly related to the relative abundance of Dothideomycetes and Alatospora; the content of available potassium was markedly associated with the relative abundance of Dothideomycetes, Alatospora and Mucorales; the content of total nitrogen was significant correlation with the relative abundance of Sordariomycetes and Mucorales. These results indicated that fertilization was one of pivotal factors affecting the rhizosphere micro-ecology of ginseng, and optimization of fertilization system was an effective method to overcome continuous cropping obstacles. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Impact of volunteer rice infestation on yield and grain quality of rice.

PubMed

Singh, Vijay; Burgos, Nilda R; Singh, Shilpa; Gealy, David R; Gbur, Edward E; Caicedo, Ana L

2017-03-01

Volunteer rice (Oryza sativa L.) grains may differ in physicochemical traits from cultivated rice, which may reduce the quality of harvested rice grain. To evaluate the effect of volunteer rice on cultivated rice, fields were surveyed in Arkansas in 2012. Cropping history that included hybrid cultivars in the previous two years (2010 and 2011) had higher volunteer rice infestation (20%) compared with fields planted previously with inbred rice (5.5%). The total grain yield of rice was reduced by 0.4% for every 1% increase in volunteer rice density. The grain quality did not change in fields planted with the same cultivar for three years. Volunteer rice density of at least 7.6% negatively impacted the head rice and when infestation reached 17.7%, it also reduced the rice grain yield. The protein and amylose contents of rice were not affected until volunteer rice infestation exceeded 30%. Crop rotation systems that include hybrid rice are expected to have higher volunteer rice infestation than systems without hybrid rice. It is predicted that, at 8% infestation, volunteer rice will start to impact head rice yield and will reduce total yield at 18% infestation. It could alter the chemical quality of rice grain at >30% infestation. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change

PubMed Central

Pugh, T.A.M.; Müller, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Folberth, C.; Olin, S.; Schmid, E.; Arneth, A.

2016-01-01

Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand. PMID:27646707

Climate Analogues Suggest Limited Potential for Intensification of Production on Current Croplands Under Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pugh, T. A. M.; Mueller, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Folberth, C.; Olin, S.; Schmid, E.; Arneth, A.

2016-01-01

Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.

Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pugh, T. A. M.; Müller, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Folberth, C.; Olin, S.; Schmid, E.; Arneth, A.

2016-09-01

Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.

Functional Gene Discovery and Characterization of Genes and Alleles Affecting Wood Biomass Yield and Quality in Populus

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Busov, Victor

Adoption of biofuels as economically and environmentally viable alternative to fossil fuels would require development of specialized bioenergy varieties. A major goal in the breeding of such varieties is the improvement of lignocellulosic biomass yield and quality. These are complex traits and understanding the underpinning molecular mechanism can assist and accelerate their improvement. This is particularly important for tree bioenergy crops like poplars (species and hybrids from the genus Populus), for which breeding progress is extremely slow due to long generation cycles. A variety of approaches have been already undertaken to better understand the molecular bases of biomass yield andmore » quality in poplar. An obvious void in these undertakings has been the application of mutagenesis. Mutagenesis has been instrumental in the discovery and characterization of many plant traits including such that affect biomass yield and quality. In this proposal we use activation tagging to discover genes that can significantly affect biomass associated traits directly in poplar, a premier bioenergy crop. We screened a population of 5,000 independent poplar activation tagging lines under greenhouse conditions for a battery of biomass yield traits. These same plants were then analyzed for changes in wood chemistry using pyMBMS. As a result of these screens we have identified nearly 800 mutants, which are significantly (P<0.05) different when compared to wild type. Of these majority (~700) are affected in one of ten different biomass yield traits and 100 in biomass quality traits (e.g., lignin, S/G ration and C6/C5 sugars). We successfully recovered the position of the tag in approximately 130 lines, showed activation in nearly half of them and performed recapitulation experiments with 20 genes prioritized by the significance of the phenotype. Recapitulation experiments are still ongoing for many of the genes but the results are encouraging. For example, we have shown successful recapitulation for a fascilin-like gene that when overexpressed increase many biomass-yield associated traits. Genes discovered through activation tagging showed polymorphisms in P. trichocarpa association mapping population linked to the traits modified by the activation tagging. This suggests that putative alleles that are associated with improvement of the trait o interest can be discovered and used in marker associated selection. This will significantly simplify and accelerate the breeding efforts.« less

Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, Gerald; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and will thus be directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments inmore » yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathway that result in end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 watts per square meter. The mean biophysical impact on crop yield with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17 percent reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11 percent, increase area of major crops by 12 percent, and reduce consumption by 2 percent. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences includes model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.« less

Short-term responses of leaf growth rate to water deficit scale up to whole-plant and crop levels: an integrated modelling approach in maize.

PubMed

Chenu, Karine; Chapman, Scott C; Hammer, Graeme L; McLean, Greg; Salah, Halim Ben Haj; Tardieu, François

2008-03-01

Physiological and genetic studies of leaf growth often focus on short-term responses, leaving a gap to whole-plant models that predict biomass accumulation, transpiration and yield at crop scale. To bridge this gap, we developed a model that combines an existing model of leaf 6 expansion in response to short-term environmental variations with a model coordinating the development of all leaves of a plant. The latter was based on: (1) rates of leaf initiation, appearance and end of elongation measured in field experiments; and (2) the hypothesis of an independence of the growth between leaves. The resulting whole-plant leaf model was integrated into the generic crop model APSIM which provided dynamic feedback of environmental conditions to the leaf model and allowed simulation of crop growth at canopy level. The model was tested in 12 field situations with contrasting temperature, evaporative demand and soil water status. In observed and simulated data, high evaporative demand reduced leaf area at the whole-plant level, and short water deficits affected only leaves developing during the stress, either visible or still hidden in the whorl. The model adequately simulated whole-plant profiles of leaf area with a single set of parameters that applied to the same hybrid in all experiments. It was also suitable to predict biomass accumulation and yield of a similar hybrid grown in different conditions. This model extends to field conditions existing knowledge of the environmental controls of leaf elongation, and can be used to simulate how their genetic controls flow through to yield.