Evaluation of downscaled, gridded climate data for the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robert J. Behnke,; Stephen J. Vavrus,; Andrew Allstadt,; Thomas P. Albright,; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Volker C. Radeloff,

2016-01-01

Weather and climate affect many ecological processes, making spatially continuous yet fine-resolution weather data desirable for ecological research and predictions. Numerous downscaled weather data sets exist, but little attempt has been made to evaluate them systematically. Here we address this shortcoming by focusing on four major questions: (1) How accurate are downscaled, gridded climate data sets in terms of temperature and precipitation estimates?, (2) Are there significant regional differences in accuracy among data sets?, (3) How accurate are their mean values compared with extremes?, and (4) Does their accuracy depend on spatial resolution? We compared eight widely used downscaled data sets that provide gridded daily weather data for recent decades across the United States. We found considerable differences among data sets and between downscaled and weather station data. Temperature is represented more accurately than precipitation, and climate averages are more accurate than weather extremes. The data set exhibiting the best agreement with station data varies among ecoregions. Surprisingly, the accuracy of the data sets does not depend on spatial resolution. Although some inherent differences among data sets and weather station data are to be expected, our findings highlight how much different interpolation methods affect downscaled weather data, even for local comparisons with nearby weather stations located inside a grid cell. More broadly, our results highlight the need for careful consideration among different available data sets in terms of which variables they describe best, where they perform best, and their resolution, when selecting a downscaled weather data set for a given ecological application.

Remote Sensing of Urban Land Cover/Land Use Change, Surface Thermal Responses, and Potential Meteorological and Climate Change Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Jedlovec, Gary; Meyer, Paul

2011-01-01

City growth influences the development of the urban heat island (UHI), but the effect that local meteorology has on the UHI is less well known. This paper presents some preliminary findings from a study that uses multitemporal Landsat TM and ASTER data to evaluate land cover/land use change (LULCC) over the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MFSC) and its Huntsville, AL metropolitan area. Landsat NLCD data for 1992 and 2001 have been used to evaluate LULCC for MSFC and the surrounding urban area. Land surface temperature (LST) and emissivity derived from NLCD data have also been analyzed to assess changes in these parameters in relation to LULCC. Additionally, LULCC, LST, and emissivity have been identified from ASTER data from 2001 and 2011 to provide a comparison with the 2001 NLCD and as a measure of current conditions within the study area. As anticipated, the multi-temporal NLCD and ASTER data show that significant changes have occurred in land covers, LST, and emissivity within and around MSFC. The patterns and arrangement of these changes, however, is significant because the juxtaposition of urban land covers within and outside of MSFC provides insight on what impacts at a local to regional scale, the inter-linkage of these changes potentially have on meteorology. To further analyze these interactions between LULCC, LST, and emissivity with the lower atmosphere, a network of eleven weather stations has been established across the MSFC property. These weather stations provide data at a 10 minute interval, and these data are uplinked for use by MSFC facilities operations and the National Weather Service. The weather data are also integrated within a larger network of meteorological stations across north Alabama. Given that the MSFC weather stations will operate for an extended period of time, they can be used to evaluate how the building of new structures, and changes in roadways, and green spaces as identified in the MSFC master plan for the future, will potentially affect land cover LSTs across the Center. Moreover, the weather stations will also provide baseline data for developing a better understanding of how localized weather factors, such as extreme rainfall and heat events, affect micrometeorology. These data can also be used to model the interrelationships between LSTs and meteorology on a longer term basis to help evaluate how changes in these parameters can be quantified from satellite data collected in the future. In turn, the overall integration of multi-temporal meteorological information with LULCC, and LST data for MSFC proper and the surrounding Huntsville urbanized area can provide a perspective on how urban land surface types affect the meteorology in the boundary layer and ultimately, the UHI. Additionally, data such as this can be used as a foundation for modeling how climate change will potentially impact local and regional meteorology and conversely, how urban LULCC can or will influence changes on climate over the north Alabama area.

Effects of ENSO on weather-type frequencies and properties at New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Muller, R.A.

2002-01-01

Examination of historical climate records indicates a significant relation between the El Nin??o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal temperature and precipitation in Louisiana. In this study, a 40 yr record of twice daily (06:00 and 15:00 h local time) weather types are used to study the effects of ENSO variability on the local climate at New Orleans, Louisiana. Tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) for the NINO3.4 region are used to define ENSO events (i.e. El Nin??o and La Nin??a events), and daily precipitation and temperature data for New Orleans are used to define weather-type precipitation and temperature properties. Data for winters (December through February) 1962-2000 are analyzed. The 39 winters are divided into 3 categories; winters with NINO3.4 SST anomalies 1??C (El Nin??o events), and neutral conditions (all other years). For each category, weather-type frequencies and properties (i.e. precipitation and temperature) are determined and analyzed. Results indicate that El Nin??o events primarily affect precipitation characteristics of weather types at New Orleans, whereas the effects of La Nin??a events are most apparent in weather-type frequencies. During El Nin??o events, precipitation for some of the weather types is greater than during neutral and La Nin??a conditions and is related to increased water vapor transport from the Tropics to the Gulf of Mexico. The changes in weather-type frequencies during La Nin??a events are indicative of a northward shift in storm tracks and/or a decrease in storm frequency in southern Louisiana.

Relationships between Long-Term Demography and Weather in a Sub-Arctic Population of Common Eider

PubMed Central

Jónsson, Jón Einar; Gardarsson, Arnthor; Gill, Jennifer A.; Pétursdóttir, Una Krístín; Petersen, Aevar; Gunnarsson, Tómas Grétar

2013-01-01

Effects of local weather on individuals and populations are key drivers of wildlife responses to climatic changes. However, studies often do not last long enough to identify weather conditions that influence demographic processes, or to capture rare but extreme weather events at appropriate scales. In Iceland, farmers collect nest down of wild common eider Somateria mollissima and many farmers count nests within colonies annually, which reflects annual variation in the number of breeding females. We collated these data for 17 colonies. Synchrony in breeding numbers was generally low between colonies. We evaluated 1) demographic relationships with weather in nesting colonies of common eider across Iceland during 1900–2007; and 2) impacts of episodic weather events (aberrantly cold seasons or years) on subsequent breeding numbers. Except for episodic events, breeding numbers within a colony generally had no relationship to local weather conditions in the preceding year. However, common eider are sexually mature at 2–3 years of age and we found a 3-year time lag between summer weather and breeding numbers for three colonies, indicating a positive effect of higher pressure, drier summers for one colony, and a negative effect of warmer, calmer summers for two colonies. These findings may represent weather effects on duckling production and subsequent recruitment. Weather effects were mostly limited to a few aberrant years causing reductions in breeding numbers, i.e. declines in several colonies followed severe winters (1918) and some years with high NAO (1992, 1995). In terms of life history, adult survival generally is high and stable and probably only markedly affected by inclement weather or aberrantly bad years. Conversely, breeding propensity of adults and duckling production probably do respond more to annual weather variations; i.e. unfavorable winter conditions for adults increase probability of death or skipped breeding, whereas favorable summers can promote boom years for recruitment. PMID:23805292

The effect of weather on mood, productivity, and frequency of emotional crisis in a temperate continental climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnston, A. G.

1988-06-01

A group of 62 mostly university student subjects kept structured diaries of their feelings and their productivity for six weeks in Illinois in early autumn. During the same period, daily frequency of telephone calls to a crisis intervention service in the same community was monitored, and complete daily weather data for the vicinity were provided by a local meteorological research facility. Major findings are as follows. The weather appears to influence mood and productivity, but only to a smallextent compared with the aggregate of all other controlling factors. Males show a relatively stronger effect than females. Psychologically troubled people generally appear to be more affected by weather than university students. The students and the crisis intervention service clients with “mild” problems tend to be stressed more when the weather is unstable, cloudy, warm and humid, and least stressed during sunny, dry, cool weather with rising barometric pressure. The crisis service clients with “severe” problems react oppositely to these two weather types. The meaning of these and other results and the strengths and weaknesses of this study's design are discussed.

Mixed severity fire effects within the Rim fire: Relative importance of local climate, fire weather, topography, and forest structure

Treesearch

Van R. Kane; C. Alina Cansler; Nicholas A. Povak; Jonathan T. Kane; Robert J. McGaughey; James A. Lutz; Derek J. Churchill; Malcolm P. North

2015-01-01

Recent and projected increases in the frequency and severity of large wildfires in the western U.S. makes understanding the factors that strongly affect landscape fire patterns a management priority for optimizing treatment location. We compared the influence of variations in the local environment on burn severity patterns on the large 2013 Rim fire that burned under...

Impact of Rice Paddy Areas Decrease on Local Climate over Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, M. H.; Wen, W. H.; Chen, C. C.

2014-12-01

Agricultural irrigation practice is one of the important anthropogenic processes in the land surface modeling. Irrigation can decrease local surface temperature with alternating surface energy partitioning. Rice paddy is the major food crop in Asian monsoon region and rice is grown under flooded conditions during the growing season; hence, the rice paddy can be considered as an open water body, which has more impacts on the surface energy budget than other cropland does. In this study, we explore how the rice paddy area changes affect Taiwan's regional climate from both observational data and numerical modeling exercise. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is utilized to explore impacts of rice paddy area changes on the regional climate, and energy and water budget changes. In addition, temperature datasets from six automatic weather stations in the northern Taiwan and two stations in the southern Taiwan are analyzed in this study to explore how the Daily Temperature Range (DTR) changes with the decreased rice paddy areas. Previous studies show that due to the urban heat island effect, aerosol direct and indirect effects, and global warming, the DTR has decreased in the past 4 decades observed from most of the weather stations around Taiwan. However, the declined rice paddy area may increase the DTR with higher Bowen ratio during the daytime. Preliminary results show that DTR is decreased in weather stations near the urban area, but increased in weather stations near fallow areas in the past 20 years. It shows that different land use changes may have opposite impacts on local and regional climate.

Objective classification of atmospheric circulation over southern Scandinavia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linderson, Maj-Lena

2001-02-01

A method for calculating circulation indices and weather types following the Lamb classification is applied to southern Scandinavia. The main objective is to test the ability of the method to describe the atmospheric circulation over the area, and to evaluate the extent to which the pressure patterns determine local precipitation and temperature in Scania, southernmost Sweden. The weather type classification method works well and produces distinct groups. However, the variability within the group is large with regard to the location of the low pressure centres, which may have implications for the precipitation over the area. The anticyclonic weather type dominates, together with the cyclonic and westerly types. This deviates partly from the general picture for Sweden and may be explained by the southerly location of the study area. The cyclonic type is most frequent in spring, although cloudiness and amount of rain are lowest during this season. This could be explained by the occurrence of weaker cyclones or low air humidity during this time of year. Local temperature and precipitation were modelled by stepwise regression for each season, designating weather types as independent variables. Only the winter season-modelled temperature and precipitation show a high and robust correspondence to the observed temperature and precipitation, even though <60% of the precipitation variance is explained. In the other seasons, the connection between atmospheric circulation and the local temperature and precipitation is low. Other meteorological parameters may need to be taken into account. The time and space resolution of the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) grid may affect the results, as many important features might not be covered by the classification. Local physiography may also influence the local climate in a way that cannot be described by the atmospheric circulation pattern alone, stressing the importance of using more than one observation series.

Investigation of the Mid-Atlantic coast sudden cold water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, D.; Kafatos, M.; Liu, Z.; Chiu, L.

2003-12-01

In the midsummer of this year, it was reported that there was a tremendous change in ocean temperature along the Mid-Atlantic coast, dropping as much as 10 degrees overnight. This sudden sea surface temperature drop affected local tourism and fishing, keep the tourists out of water at this vacation time, caused local tuna fishing hasn't been as good this year, but the cold water lured chill-loving striped bass close to shore, and has two to three weeks of great rockfish, which fishermen could normally get till fall. This article investigates this event by using satellite observations, numerical model outputs, and surface weather analysis. It is found that the North Atlantic cold current, combined with the coastal upwelling driven by the weather influence might cause this sudden cold SST event.

Space Weathering Impact on Solar System Surfaces and Planetary Mission Science

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, John F.

2011-01-01

We often look "through a glass, darkly" at solar system bodies with tenuous atmospheres and direct surface exposure to the local space environment. Space weathering exposure acts via universal space-surface interaction processes to produce a thin patina of outer material covering, potentially obscuring endogenic surface materials of greatest interest for understanding origins and interior evolution. Examples of obscuring exogenic layers are radiation crusts on cometary nuclei and iogenic components of sulfate hydrate deposits on the trailing hemisphere of Europa. Weathering processes include plasma ion implantation into surfaces, sputtering by charged particles and solar ultraviolet photons, photolytic chemistry driven by UV irradiation, and radiolytic chemistry evolving from products of charged particle irradiation. Regolith structure from impacts, and underlying deeper structures from internal evolution, affects efficacy of certain surface interactions, e.g. sputtering as affected by porosity and surface irradiation dosage as partly attenuated by local topographic shielding. These processes should be regarded for mission science planning as potentially enabling, e.g. since direct surface sputtering, and resultant surface-bound exospheres, can provide in-situ samples of surface composition to ion and neutral mass spectrometers on orbital spacecraft. Sample return for highest sensitivity compOSitional and structural analyses at Earth will usually be precluded by limited range of surface sampling, long times for return, and high cost. Targeted advancements in instrument technology would be more cost efficient for local remote and in-situ sample analysis. More realistic laboratory simulations, e.g. for bulk samples, are needed to interpret mission science observations of weathered surfaces. Space environment effects on mission spacecraft and science operations must also be specified and mitigated from the hourly to monthly changes in space weather and from longer term (e.g., solar cycle) evolution of space climate. Capable instrumentation on planetary missions can and should be planned to contribute to knowledge of interplanetary space environments. Evolving data system technologies such as virtual observatories should be explored for more interdisciplinary application to the science of planetary surface, atmospheric, magnetospheric, and interplanetary interactions.

Local Climate Experts: The Influence of Local TV Weather Information on Climate Change Perceptions

PubMed Central

Bloodhart, Brittany; Maibach, Edward; Myers, Teresa; Zhao, Xiaoquan

2015-01-01

Individuals who identify changes in their local climate are also more likely to report that they have personally experienced global climate change. One way that people may come to recognize that their local climate is changing is through information provided by local TV weather forecasters. Using random digit dialing, 2,000 adult local TV news viewers in Virginia were surveyed to determine whether routine exposure to local TV weather forecasts influences their perceptions of extreme weather in Virginia, and their perceptions about climate change more generally. Results indicate that paying attention to TV weather forecasts is associated with beliefs that extreme weather is becoming more frequent in Virginia, which in turn is associated with stronger beliefs and concerns about climate change. These associations were strongest for individuals who trust their local TV weathercaster as a source of information about climate change, and for those who identify as politically conservative or moderate. The findings add support to the literature suggesting that TV weathercasters can play an important role in educating the public about climate change. PMID:26551357

Local Climate Experts: The Influence of Local TV Weather Information on Climate Change Perceptions.

PubMed

Bloodhart, Brittany; Maibach, Edward; Myers, Teresa; Zhao, Xiaoquan

2015-01-01

Individuals who identify changes in their local climate are also more likely to report that they have personally experienced global climate change. One way that people may come to recognize that their local climate is changing is through information provided by local TV weather forecasters. Using random digit dialing, 2,000 adult local TV news viewers in Virginia were surveyed to determine whether routine exposure to local TV weather forecasts influences their perceptions of extreme weather in Virginia, and their perceptions about climate change more generally. Results indicate that paying attention to TV weather forecasts is associated with beliefs that extreme weather is becoming more frequent in Virginia, which in turn is associated with stronger beliefs and concerns about climate change. These associations were strongest for individuals who trust their local TV weathercaster as a source of information about climate change, and for those who identify as politically conservative or moderate. The findings add support to the literature suggesting that TV weathercasters can play an important role in educating the public about climate change.

About NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services. Follow the Field Offices are located across the country. Links to web sites of these components of the National that affect small businesses have established Web sites, e-mail addresses, and toll free phone numbers

Grand challenges in understanding the interplay of climate and land changes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Half of the Earth’s land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affects a myriad of land surface processes and our adaptation behaviors. After reviewing the status and major knowledge gap...

Space Weathering on Airless Bodies.

PubMed

Pieters, Carle M; Noble, Sarah K

2016-10-01

Space weathering refers to alteration that occurs in the space environment with time. Lunar samples, and to some extent meteorites, have provided a benchmark for understanding the processes and products of space weathering. Lunar soils are derived principally from local materials but have accumulated a range of optically active opaque particles (OAOpq) that include nanophase metallic iron on/in rims formed on individual grains (imparting a red slope to visible and near-infrared reflectance) and larger iron particles (which darken across all wavelengths) such as are often found within the interior of recycled grains. Space weathering of other anhydrous silicate bodies, such as Mercury and some asteroids, produce different forms and relative abundance of OAOpq particles depending on the particular environment. If the development of OAOpq particles is minimized (such as at Vesta), contamination by exogenic material and regolith mixing become the dominant space weathering processes. Volatile-rich bodies and those composed of abundant hydrous minerals (dwarf planet Ceres, many dark asteroids, outer solar system satellites) are affected by space weathering processes differently than the silicate bodies of the inner solar system. However, the space weathering products of these bodies are currently poorly understood and the physics and chemistry of space weathering processes in different environments are areas of active research.

Space Weathering on Airless Bodies

PubMed Central

Pieters, Carle M.; Noble, Sarah K.

2018-01-01

Space weathering refers to alteration that occurs in the space environment with time. Lunar samples, and to some extent meteorites, have provided a benchmark for understanding the processes and products of space weathering. Lunar soils are derived principally from local materials but have accumulated a range of optically active opaque particles (OAOpq) that include nanophase metallic iron on/in rims formed on individual grains (imparting a red slope to visible and near-infrared reflectance) and larger iron particles (which darken across all wavelengths) such as are often found within the interior of recycled grains. Space weathering of other anhydrous silicate bodies, such as Mercury and some asteroids, produce different forms and relative abundance of OAOpq particles depending on the particular environment. If the development of OAOpq particles is minimized (such as at Vesta), contamination by exogenic material and regolith mixing become the dominant space weathering processes. Volatile-rich bodies and those composed of abundant hydrous minerals (dwarf planet Ceres, many dark asteroids, outer solar system satellites) are affected by space weathering processes differently than the silicate bodies of the inner solar system. However, the space weathering products of these bodies are currently poorly understood and the physics and chemistry of space weathering processes in different environments are areas of active research. PMID:29862145

The Application of Synoptic Weather Forecasting Rules to Selected Weather Situations in the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kohler, Fred E.

The document describes the use of weather maps and data in teaching introductory college courses in synoptic meteorology. Students examine weather changes at three-hour intervals from data obtained from the "Monthly Summary of Local Climatological Data." Weather variables in the local summary include sky cover, air temperature, dew point, relative…

Learning and Risk Exposure in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, F.

2015-12-01

Climate change is a gradual process most apparent over long time-scales and large spatial scales, but it is experienced by those affected as changes in local weather. Climate change will gradually push the weather people experience outside the bounds of historic norms, resulting in unprecedented and extreme weather events. However, people do have the ability to learn about and respond to a changing climate. Therefore, connecting the weather people experience with their perceptions of climate change requires understanding how people infer the current state of the climate given their observations of weather. This learning process constitutes a first-order constraint on the rate of adaptation and is an important determinant of the dynamic adjustment costs associated with climate change. In this paper I explore two learning models that describe how local weather observations are translated into perceptions of climate change: an efficient Bayesian learning model and a simpler rolling-mean heuristic. Both have a period during which the learner's beliefs about the state of the climate are different from its true state, meaning the learner is exposed to a different range of extreme weather outcomes then they are prepared for. Using the example of surface temperature trends, I quantify this additional exposure to extreme heat events under both learning models and both RCP 8.5 and 2.6. Risk exposure increases for both learning models, but by substantially more for the rolling-mean learner. Moreover, there is an interaction between the learning model and the rate of climate change: the inefficient rolling-mean learner benefits much more from the slower rates of change under RCP 2.6 then the Bayesian. Finally, I present results from an experiment that suggests people are able to learn about a trending climate in a manner consistent with the Bayesian model.

Accounting for multiple climate components when estimating climate change exposure and velocity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nadeau, Christopher P.; Fuller, Angela K.

2015-01-01

The effect of anthropogenic climate change on organisms will likely be related to climate change exposure and velocity at local and regional scales. However, common methods to estimate climate change exposure and velocity ignore important components of climate that are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms.We develop a novel index of climate change (climate overlap) that simultaneously estimates changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables. Specifically, we estimate the overlap between multivariate normal probability distributions representing historical and current or projected future climates. We provide methods for estimating the statistical significance of climate overlap values and methods to estimate velocity using climate overlap.We show that climates have changed significantly across 80% of the continental United States in the last 32 years and that much of this change is due to changes in the variation and correlation between weather variables (two statistics that are rarely incorporated into climate change studies). We also show that projected future temperatures are predicted to be locally novel (<1·5% overlap) across most of the global land surface and that exposure is likely to be highest in areas with low historical climate variation. Last, we show that accounting for changes in the variation and correlation between multiple weather variables can dramatically affect velocity estimates; mean velocity estimates in the continental United States were between 3·1 and 19·0 km yr−1when estimated using climate overlap compared to 1·4 km yr−1 when estimated using traditional methods.Our results suggest that accounting for changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables can dramatically affect estimates of climate change exposure and velocity. These climate components are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms, but are ignored by most measures of climate change. We conclude with a set of future directions and recommend future work to determine which measures of climate change exposure and velocity are most related to biological responses to climate change.

Atmospheric Effects on Cosmic Ray Air Showers Observed with HAWC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, Steven

2014-01-01

The High Altitude Water Cherenkov Gamma Ray detector (HAWC), currently under construction on the Sierra Negra volcano near Puebla, Mexico, can be used to study solar physics with its scaler data acquisition system. Increases in the scaler rates are used to observe GeV cosmic rays from solar flares while decreases in the rates show the heliospheric disturbances associated with coronal mass ejections. However, weather conditions and height-dependent state variables such as pressure and temperature affect the production of extensive particle air showers that can be detected by the scaler system. To see if these atmospheric effects can be removed, we obtained local weather data from the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) and the local weather station at HAWC. The scaler pulse rates were then correlated to the pressure and temperature. We present data from a Forbush decrease observed by HAWC following a significant coronal mass ejection in April 2013, and describe our efforts to remove atmospheric variations from the scaler counts. This work was partially supported by the National Science Foundation’s REU program through NSF Award AST-1004881 to the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Farm Management, Environment, and Weather Factors Jointly Affect the Probability of Spinach Contamination by Generic Escherichia coli at the Preharvest Stage

PubMed Central

Navratil, Sarah; Gregory, Ashley; Bauer, Arin; Srinath, Indumathi; Szonyi, Barbara; Nightingale, Kendra; Anciso, Juan; Jun, Mikyoung; Han, Daikwon; Lawhon, Sara; Ivanek, Renata

2014-01-01

The National Resources Information (NRI) databases provide underutilized information on the local farm conditions that may predict microbial contamination of leafy greens at preharvest. Our objective was to identify NRI weather and landscape factors affecting spinach contamination with generic Escherichia coli individually and jointly with farm management and environmental factors. For each of the 955 georeferenced spinach samples (including 63 positive samples) collected between 2010 and 2012 on 12 farms in Colorado and Texas, we extracted variables describing the local weather (ambient temperature, precipitation, and wind speed) and landscape (soil characteristics and proximity to roads and water bodies) from NRI databases. Variables describing farm management and environment were obtained from a survey of the enrolled farms. The variables were evaluated using a mixed-effect logistic regression model with random effects for farm and date. The model identified precipitation as a single NRI predictor of spinach contamination with generic E. coli, indicating that the contamination probability increases with an increasing mean amount of rain (mm) in the past 29 days (odds ratio [OR] = 3.5). The model also identified the farm's hygiene practices as a protective factor (OR = 0.06) and manure application (OR = 52.2) and state (OR = 108.1) as risk factors. In cross-validation, the model showed a solid predictive performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 81%. Overall, the findings highlighted the utility of NRI precipitation data in predicting contamination and demonstrated that farm management, environment, and weather factors should be considered jointly in development of good agricultural practices and measures to reduce produce contamination. PMID:24509926

Mineralogy and evolution of the surface of Mars: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chevrier, V.; Mathé, P. E.

2007-02-01

We review the mineralogy of the surface of Mars, using data from various sources, including in situ characterisations performed by landers, remote observations from orbit, and studies of the SNC meteorites. We also discuss the possible alteration processes and the factor controlling them, and try to relate the mineralogical observations to the chemical evolution of the surface materials on Mars in order to identify the dominant process(es). Then we try to describe a possible chemical and mineralogical evolution of the surface materials, resulting from weathering driven by the abundance and activity of water. Even if weathering is the dominant process responsible for the surface evolution, all observations suggest that it is strongly affected locally in time and space by various other processes including hydrothermalism, volcanism, evaporites, meteoritic impacts and aeolian erosion. Nevertheless, the observed phases on the surface of Mars globally depend on the evolution of the weathering conditions. This hypothesis, if confirmed, could give a new view of the evolution of the martian surface, roughly in three steps. The first would correspond to clay-type weathering process in the Noachian, under a probable thick H 2O/CO 2-rich atmosphere. Then, during the Hesperian when water became scarcer and its activity sporadic, linked to volcanic activity, sulfate-type acidic weathering process would have been predominant. The third period would be like today, a very slow weathering by strongly oxidising agents (H 2O 2, O 2) in cold and dry conditions, through solid-gas or solid-films of water resulting frost-thaw and/or acid fog. This would favour poorly crystalline phases, mainly iron (oxy) hydroxides. But in this scenario many questions remain about the transition between these processes, and about the factors affecting the evolution of the weathering process.

Identification of weather variables sensitive to dysentery in disease-affected county of China.

PubMed

Liu, Jianing; Wu, Xiaoxu; Li, Chenlu; Xu, Bing; Hu, Luojia; Chen, Jin; Dai, Shuang

2017-01-01

Climate change mainly refers to long-term change in weather variables, and it has significant impact on sustainability and spread of infectious diseases. Among three leading infectious diseases in China, dysentery is exclusively sensitive to climate change. Previous researches on weather variables and dysentery mainly focus on determining correlation between dysentery incidence and weather variables. However, the contribution of each variable to dysentery incidence has been rarely clarified. Therefore, we chose a typical county in epidemic of dysentery as the study area. Based on data of dysentery incidence, weather variables (monthly mean temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, absolute humidity, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature) and lagged analysis, we used principal component analysis (PCA) and classification and regression trees (CART) to examine the relationships between the incidence of dysentery and weather variables. Principal component analysis showed that temperature, precipitation, and humidity played a key role in determining transmission of dysentery. We further selected weather variables including minimum temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity based on results of PCA, and used CART to clarify contributions of these three weather variables to dysentery incidence. We found when minimum temperature was at a high level, the high incidence of dysentery occurred if relative humidity or precipitation was at a high level. We compared our results with other studies on dysentery incidence and meteorological factors in areas both in China and abroad, and good agreement has been achieved. Yet, some differences remain for three reasons: not identifying all key weather variables, climate condition difference caused by local factors, and human factors that also affect dysentery incidence. This study hopes to shed light on potential early warnings for dysentery transmission as climate change occurs, and provide a theoretical basis for the control and prevention of dysentery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Soil nitrogen levels are linked to decomposition enzyme activities along an urban-remote tropical forest gradient

Treesearch

D. F. Cusack

2013-01-01

Urban areas in tropical regions are expanding rapidly, with significant potential to affect local ecosystem dynamics. In particular, nitrogen (N) availability may increase in urban-proximate forests because of atmospheric N deposition. Unlike temperate forests, many tropical forests on highly weathered soils have high background N availability, so plant growth is...

Signatures of large-scale and local climates on the demography of white-tailed ptarmigan in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA.

PubMed

Wang, Guiming; Hobbs, N Thompson; Galbraith, Hector; Giesen, Kenneth M

2002-09-01

Global climate change may impact wildlife populations by affecting local weather patterns, which, in turn, can impact a variety of ecological processes. However, it is not clear that local variations in ecological processes can be explained by large-scale patterns of climate. The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is a large-scale climate phenomenon that has been shown to influence the population dynamics of some animals. Although effects of the NAO on vertebrate population dynamics have been studied, it remains uncertain whether it broadly predicts the impact of weather on species. We examined the ability of local weather data and the NAO to explain the annual variation in population dynamics of white-tailed ptarmigan ( Lagopus leucurus) in Rocky Mountain National Park, USA. We performed canonical correlation analysis on the demographic subspace of ptarmigan and local-climate subspace defined by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) using data from 1975 to 1999. We found that two subspaces were significantly correlated on the first canonical variable. The Pearson correlation coefficient of the first EOF values of the demographic and local-climate subspaces was significant. The population density and the first EOF of local-climate subspace influenced the ptarmigan population with 1-year lags in the Gompertz model. However, the NAO index was neither related to the first two EOF of local-climate subspace nor to the first EOF of the demographic subspace of ptarmigan. Moreover, the NAO index was not a significant term in the Gompertz model for the ptarmigan population. Therefore, local climate had stronger signature on the demography of ptarmigan than did a large-scale index, i.e., the NAO index. We conclude that local responses of wildlife populations to changing climate may not be adequately explained by models that project large-scale climatic patterns.

Large-scale data analysis of power grid resilience across multiple US service regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Chuanyi; Wei, Yun; Mei, Henry; Calzada, Jorge; Carey, Matthew; Church, Steve; Hayes, Timothy; Nugent, Brian; Stella, Gregory; Wallace, Matthew; White, Joe; Wilcox, Robert

2016-05-01

Severe weather events frequently result in large-scale power failures, affecting millions of people for extended durations. However, the lack of comprehensive, detailed failure and recovery data has impeded large-scale resilience studies. Here, we analyse data from four major service regions representing Upstate New York during Super Storm Sandy and daily operations. Using non-stationary spatiotemporal random processes that relate infrastructural failures to recoveries and cost, our data analysis shows that local power failures have a disproportionally large non-local impact on people (that is, the top 20% of failures interrupted 84% of services to customers). A large number (89%) of small failures, represented by the bottom 34% of customers and commonplace devices, resulted in 56% of the total cost of 28 million customer interruption hours. Our study shows that extreme weather does not cause, but rather exacerbates, existing vulnerabilities, which are obscured in daily operations.

Communicating Climate Change - Weather Forecast Need Assessment and Information Dissemination Mechanism to Farmers in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panthi, J., Sr.

2014-12-01

Climate Change is becoming one of the major threats to the fragile Himalayan ecosystem. It is affecting all sectors mainly fresh water, agriculture, forest, biodiversity and species. The subsistence agriculture system of Nepal is mainly rain-fed; therefore, climate change and climate extremes do have direct impacts on it. Weather extremes like droughts, floods and landslides long-lasting fog, hot and cold waves are affecting the agriculture sectors of Nepal. As human-induced climate change has already showing its impacts and it is going to be there for a long time to come, it is paramount importance to move towards the adaptation. Early warning system is an effective way for reducing the impacts of disasters. Forecasting of weather parameters (temperature, precipitation, and wind) helps farmers for their preparedness activities. With consultation with farmers and other relevant institutions, a research project was carried out, for the first time in Nepal, to identify the forecast information need to farmers and their dissemination mechanism. Community consultation workshops, key informant survey, and field observations were the techniques used for this research. Two ecological locations: Bageshwori VDC in Banke (plain) and Dhaibung VDC in Rasuwa (mountain) were taken as the pilot sites for this assessment. People in both the districts are dependent highly on agriculture and the weather extremes like hailstone, untimely rainfall; droughts are affecting their agriculture practices. They do not have confidence in the weather forecast information disseminated by the government of Nepal currently being done because it is a general forecast not done for a smaller domain and the forecast is valid only for 24 hours. The weather forecast need to the farmers in both the sites are: rainfall (intensity, duration and time), drought, and hailstone but in Banke, people wished to have the information of heat and cold waves too as they are affecting their wheat and tomato crops respectively the most. The mechanism of dissemination of the forecast information has been identified and agreed as local radio/FM, mobile telephoning to community leader and displaying and daily updating the forecast information in community hoarding boards.

Initial Results from a Study of Climatic Changes and the Effect on Wild Sheep Habitat in Selected Study Areas of Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pfeifer, Edwin; Ruhlman, Jana; Middleton, Barry; Dye, Dennis; Acosta, Alex

2010-01-01

Climate change theorists have projected striking changes in local weather on earth due to increases in temperature. These predicted changes may cause melting glaciers and ice caps, rising sea levels, increasing desertification and other environmental changes which seem likely to affect presumed indicator species as harbingers of more significant changes. Wild sheep, even though they are one of the more successful mammalian taxa since Pleistocene times, exhibit a suite of adaptations to glacier driven environments which may be presumed to render them sensitive to environmental changes. The authors began investigation with these assumptions by comparing changes, as determined by satellite imagery, in glacier extent in our study areas in Denali National Park, Alaska, during the last 30 years. Our findings showed the extent of glacial retreat in Alaska during this time period was approximately 40-50 percent as measured by ablation zone and retreat of terminal moraines. During the first half of this 30-year period, Dall sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) populations were stable at historically recorded highs. In the early to mid-1990s, Dall sheep populations in Alaska declined from an historical estimated high of 75,000 sheep to the presently estimated 40-50,000. The declines seemed to be weather related, on the basis of the presumption that lamb survival rates are primarily weather-mediated in Alaska. Changes in local weather appear, at this point, to be correlated with oscillation in the Pacific Current in the Northern Pacific ocean. Of course, changes in local weather affect forage abundance and quality seasonally. In investigating a possible linkage of weather to seasonal forage abundance and quality, we also investigated changes in snow and ice extent and distribution, as well as increased water runoff associated with permafrost and depleted glaciers. Databases were assembled from a wide variety of remotely sensed satellite data, ground-based observations, and historical data bases relating to Dall sheep habitats in selected study areas. Alaska's sheep habitats are typified by long, narrow bands of mountainous uplifts generally arrayed west-to-east, and perpendicular to prevailing south-to-north weather-front movements. Classic Dall sheep habitat occurs on snow-shadowed slopes within these narrow mountainous habitats. On the basis of these data, we offer an explanatory hypothesis relating Dall sheep welfare to weather and climate-influenced nutrition and a monitoring scheme, which should produce data sufficient to test the robustness of this hypothesis. If correlated with population changes, the methods used in our comparative observations may provide long-term monitoring tools for wildlife managers and be applicable in other widely-dispersed wild sheep habitats. If no significant correlations emerge from our modeling exercises, the notion that wild sheep are a sufficiently sensitive species to be seen as an indicator species will have to be reexamined.

Come rain or shine? Public expectation on local weather change and differential effects on climate change attitude.

PubMed

Lo, Alex Y; Jim, C Y

2015-11-01

Tailored messages are instrumental to climate change communication. Information about the global threat can be 'localised' by demonstrating its linkage with local events. This research ascertains the relationship between climate change attitude and perception of local weather, based on a survey involving 800 Hong Kong citizens. Results indicate that concerns about climate change increase with expectations about the likelihood and impacts of local weather change. Climate change believers attend to all three types of adverse weather events, namely, temperature rises, tropical cyclones and prolonged rains. Climate scepticism, however, is not associated with expectation about prolonged rains. Differential spatial orientations are a possible reason. Global climate change is an unprecedented and distant threat, whereas local rain is a more familiar and localised weather event. Global climate change should be articulated in terms that respect local concerns. Localised framing may be particularly effective for engaging individuals holding positive views about climate change science. © The Author(s) 2014.

Utilization of Live Localized Weather Information for Sustainable Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, J.; Usher, J.

2010-09-01

Authors: Jim Anderson VP, Global Network and Business Development WeatherBug® Professional Jeremy Usher Managing Director, Europe WeatherBug® Professional Localized, real-time weather information is vital for day-to-day agronomic management of all crops. The challenge for agriculture is twofold in that local and timely weather data is not often available for producers and farmers, and it is not integrated into decision-support tools they require. Many of the traditional sources of weather information are not sufficient for agricultural applications because of the long distances between weather stations, meaning the data is not always applicable for on-farm decision making processes. The second constraint with traditional weather information is the timeliness of the data. Most delivery systems are designed on a one-hour time step, whereas many decisions in agriculture are based on minute-by-minute weather conditions. This is especially true for decisions surrounding chemical and fertilizer application and frost events. This presentation will outline how the creation of an agricultural mesonet (weather network) can enable producers and farmers with live, local weather information from weather stations installed in farm/field locations. The live weather information collected from each weather station is integrated into a web-enabled decision support tool, supporting numerous on-farm agronomic activities such as pest management, or dealing with heavy rainfall and frost events. Agronomic models can be used to assess the potential of disease pressure, enhance the farmer's abilities to time pesticide applications, or assess conditions contributing to yield and quality fluctuations. Farmers and industry stakeholders may also view quality-assured historical weather variables at any location. This serves as a record-management tool for viewing previously uncharted agronomic weather events in graph or table form. This set of weather tools is unique and provides a significant enhancement to the agronomic decision-support process. Direct benefits to growers can take the form of increased yield and grade potential, as well as savings in money and time. Pest management strategies become more efficient due to timely and localized disease and pest modelling, and increased efficacy of pest and weed control. Examples from the Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) WeatherFarm weather network will be utilized to illustrate the processes, decision tools and benefits to producers and farmers.

Application and analysis of debris-flow early warning system in Wenchuan earthquake-affected area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, D. L.; Zhang, S. J.; Yang, H. J.; Zhao, L. Q.; Jiang, Y. H.; Tang, D.; Leng, X. P.

2016-02-01

The activities of debris flow (DF) in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area significantly increased after the earthquake on 12 May 2008. The safety of the lives and property of local people is threatened by DFs. A physics-based early warning system (EWS) for DF forecasting was developed and applied in this earthquake area. This paper introduces an application of the system in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area and analyzes the prediction results via a comparison to the DF events triggered by the strong rainfall events reported by the local government. The prediction accuracy and efficiency was first compared with a contribution-factor-based system currently used by the weather bureau of Sichuan province. The storm on 17 August 2012 was used as a case study for this comparison. The comparison shows that the false negative rate and false positive rate of the new system is, respectively, 19 and 21 % lower than the system based on the contribution factors. Consequently, the prediction accuracy is obviously higher than the system based on the contribution factors with a higher operational efficiency. On the invitation of the weather bureau of Sichuan province, the authors upgraded their prediction system of DF by using this new system before the monsoon of Wenchuan earthquake-affected area in 2013. Two prediction cases on 9 July 2013 and 10 July 2014 were chosen to further demonstrate that the new EWS has high stability, efficiency, and prediction accuracy.

Using fire-weather forecasts and local weather observations in predicting burning index for individual fire-danger stations.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1958-01-01

Any agency engaged in forest-fire control needs accurate weather forecasts and systematic procedures for making the best use of predicted and reported weather information. This study explores the practicability of using several tabular and graphical aids for converting area forecasts and local observations of relative humidity and wind speed into predicted values for...

An integrated weather and sea-state forecasting system for the Arabian Peninsula (WASSF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallos, George; Galanis, George; Spyrou, Christos; Mitsakou, Christina; Solomos, Stavros; Bartsotas, Nikolaos; Kalogrei, Christina; Athanaselis, Ioannis; Sofianos, Sarantis; Vervatis, Vassios; Axaopoulos, Panagiotis; Papapostolou, Alexandros; Qahtani, Jumaan Al; Alaa, Elyas; Alexiou, Ioannis; Beard, Daniel

2013-04-01

Nowadays, large industrial conglomerates such as the Saudi ARAMCO, require a series of weather and sea state forecasting products that cannot be found in state meteorological offices or even commercial data providers. The two major objectives of the system is prevention and mitigation of environmental problems and of course early warning of local conditions associated with extreme weather events. The management and operations part is related to early warning of weather and sea-state events that affect operations of various facilities. The environmental part is related to air quality and especially the desert dust levels in the atmosphere. The components of the integrated system include: (i) a weather and desert dust prediction system with forecasting horizon of 5 days, (ii) a wave analysis and prediction component for Red Sea and Arabian Gulf, (iii) an ocean circulation and tidal analysis and prediction of both Red Sea and Arabian Gulf and (iv) an Aviation part specializing in the vertical structure of the atmosphere and extreme events that affect air transport and other operations. Specialized data sets required for on/offshore operations are provided ate regular basis. State of the art modeling components are integrated to a unique system that distributes the produced analysis and forecasts to each department. The weather and dust prediction system is SKIRON/Dust, the wave analysis and prediction system is based on WAM cycle 4 model from ECMWF, the ocean circulation model is MICOM while the tidal analysis and prediction is a development of the Ocean Physics and Modeling Group of University of Athens, incorporating the Tidal Model Driver. A nowcasting subsystem is included. An interactive system based on Google Maps gives the capability to extract and display the necessary information for any location of the Arabian Peninsula, the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf.

Road weather management best practices : version 3.0.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-01-01

The impacts of weather on the nations road system greatly affect safety, mobility, and productivity. Weather affects roadway safety through increased crash risk, as well as exposure to weather-related hazards. On average 7,130 fatalities and 629,0...

Use of remote sensing techniques for geological hazard surveys in vegetated urban regions. [multispectral imagery for lithological mapping

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stow, S. H.; Price, R. C.; Hoehner, F.; Wielchowsky, C.

1976-01-01

The feasibility of using aerial photography for lithologic differentiation in a heavily vegetated region is investigated using multispectral imagery obtained from LANDSAT satellite and aircraft-borne photography. Delineating and mapping of localized vegetal zones can be accomplished by the use of remote sensing because a difference in morphology and physiology results in different natural reflectances or signatures. An investigation was made to show that these local plant zones are affected by altitude, topography, weathering, and gullying; but are controlled by lithology. Therefore, maps outlining local plant zones were used as a basis for lithologic map construction.

Lincoln Laboratory demonstrates highly accurate vehicle localization under adverse weather conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-05-25

2016 Lincoln Laboratory demonstrates highly accurate vehicle localization under adverse weather conditions A ground-penetrating radar system...the problems limiting the development and adoption of self-driving vehicles: how can a vehicle navigate to stay within its lane when bad weather ... weather conditions, but it is challenging, even impossible, for them to work when snow covers the markings and surfaces or precipitation obscures points

Trace contaminant concentration affects mineral transformation and pollutant fate in hydroxide-weathered Hanford sediments.

PubMed

Perdrial, Nicolas; Rivera, Nelson; Thompson, Aaron; O'Day, Peggy A; Chorover, Jon

2011-12-15

Prior work has shown that when silicaceous sediments are infused with caustic radioactive waste, contaminant fate is tightly coupled to ensuing mineral weathering reactions. However, the effects of local aqueous geochemical conditions on these reactions are poorly studied. Thus, we varied contaminant concentration and pCO(2) during the weathering of previously uncontaminated Hanford sediments over 6 months and 1 year in a solution of caustic waste (pH 13, high ionic strength). Co-contaminants Sr, Cs and I were added at "low" (Cs/Sr: 10(-5)m; I: 10(-7)m) and "high" (Cs/Sr: 10(-3)m; I: 10(-5)m) concentrations, and headspace was held at atmospheric or undetectable (<10ppmv) CO(2) partial pressure. Solid phase characterization revealed the formation of the zeolite chabazite in "high" samples, whereas feldspathoids, sodalite and cancrinite, were formed preferentially in "low" samples. Sr, Cs and I were sequestered in all reacted sediments. Native calcite dissolution in the CO(2)-free treatment drove the formation of strätlingite (Ca(2)Al(2)SiO(7)·8H(2)O) and diminished availability of Si and Al for feldspathoid formation. Results indicate that pCO(2) and contaminant concentrations strongly affect contaminant speciation in waste-weathered sediments, and are therefore likely to impact reaction product stability under any remediation scenario. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Weather and environmental hazards at mass gatherings.

PubMed

Soomaroo, Lee; Murray, Virginia

2012-07-31

Introduction Reviews of mass gathering events have traditionally concentrated on crowd variables that affect the level and type of medical care needed. Weather and environmental hazards at mass gathering events have not been fully researched. This review examines these events and aims to provide future suggestions for event organisers, medical resource planners, and emergency services, including local hospital emergency departments. Methods A review was conducted using computerised data bases: MEDLINE, The Cochrane Library, HMIC and EMBASE, with Google used to widen the search beyond peer-reviewed publications, to identify grey literature. All peer-review literature articles found containing information pertaining to lessons identified from mass gathering disasters due to weather or environmental hazards leading to participant death, injury or illness were analysed and reviewed. Disasters occurring due to crowd variables were not included. These articles were read, analysed, abstracted and summarised. Results 20 articles from literature search were found detailing mass gathering disasters relating directly to weather or environmental hazards from 1988 - 2011, with only 17 cases found within peer-review literature. Two events grey literature from 2011 are due to undergo further inquiry while one article reviews an event originally occurring in 1922. Analysis of cases were categorised in to heat and cold-related events, lightning and storms and disease outbreak. Conclusions Mass gathering events have an enormous potential to place a severe strain on the local health care system, Prior health resource and environmental planning for heat & cold-related illness, lightning & storms, and disease outbreak can advance emergency preparedness and response to potential disasters. Soomaroo L, Murray V. Weather and Environmental Hazards at Mass Gatherings. PLoS Currents Disasters. 2012 Jul 31 KEYWORDS: Mass Gatherings, Disasters, Sporting Events, Festivals, Concerts, Storm, Lightning, Cyclone, Hot-weather illness, Cold-weather illness, Disease, Public Health, Syndromic Surveillance Abbreviations: ALS - Advance Life support; BLS - Basic Life support; ED - Emergency Department; EMS - Emergency Medical Services; PPR - Patient Presentation Rate.

Traditional climate knowledge: a case study in a peasant community of Tlaxcala, Mexico.

PubMed

Rivero-Romero, Alexis D; Moreno-Calles, Ana I; Casas, Alejandro; Castillo, Alicia; Camou-Guerrero, Andrés

2016-08-18

Traditional climate knowledge is a comprehensive system of insights, experiences and practices used by peasant communities to deal with the uncertainties of climate conditions affecting their livelihood. This knowledge is today as relevant in the Mesoamerican and Andean regions as it is in Europe and Asia. Our research sought to analyze the traditional knowledge about the weather and climate in a rural village of the state of Tlaxcala, Mexico, and its importance in decision-making in agriculture. Through 30 interviews and participant observation in the community during 2013, information was gathered about traditional climate and weather indicators and prediction tools, as well as rituals and agronomic and agroforestry strategies. This information allowed for the reconstruction of the community's agro-festive calendar. Data analysis was carried out with the help of the qualitative analysis software Atlas.ti (version 7). The socio-ecological importance of traditional knowledge about the climate lies in its ability to forecast local weather conditions and recognize climate variations, so vital to the food security of rural families. Knowledge about climate predictors is exchanged and passed on from generation to generation, contributing to the preservation and promotion of biodiversity. By observing the behavior of 16 animals and 12 plant species (both domestic and wild) as well as seven astronomical indicators, villagers are able to predict rain, dry weather and frosts. However, the continuity of this traditional knowledge in the community under study is now compromised by the little interest in agriculture characteristic of the younger generations, the ensuing abandonment of the countryside, the widespread economic crisis and the disappearance of animal and plant species. Traditional climate knowledge includes the understanding of weather events and weather changes at different time scales (hours, days, weeks, and seasons). The ability to interpret weather events thanks to the accumulated knowledge about the climate through generations may prove today a relevant tool for improving agricultural practices and dealing with local and global socio-ecological changes.

Weather and Environmental Hazards at Mass Gatherings

PubMed Central

Soomaroo, Lee; Murray, Virginia

2012-01-01

Introduction Reviews of mass gathering events have traditionally concentrated on crowd variables that affect the level and type of medical care needed. Weather and environmental hazards at mass gathering events have not been fully researched. This review examines these events and aims to provide future suggestions for event organisers, medical resource planners, and emergency services, including local hospital emergency departments. Methods A review was conducted using computerised data bases: MEDLINE, The Cochrane Library, HMIC and EMBASE, with Google used to widen the search beyond peer-reviewed publications, to identify grey literature. All peer-review literature articles found containing information pertaining to lessons identified from mass gathering disasters due to weather or environmental hazards leading to participant death, injury or illness were analysed and reviewed. Disasters occurring due to crowd variables were not included. These articles were read, analysed, abstracted and summarised. Results 20 articles from literature search were found detailing mass gathering disasters relating directly to weather or environmental hazards from 1988 – 2011, with only 17 cases found within peer-review literature. Two events grey literature from 2011 are due to undergo further inquiry while one article reviews an event originally occurring in 1922. Analysis of cases were categorised in to heat and cold-related events, lightning and storms and disease outbreak. Conclusions Mass gathering events have an enormous potential to place a severe strain on the local health care system, Prior health resource and environmental planning for heat & cold-related illness, lightning & storms, and disease outbreak can advance emergency preparedness and response to potential disasters. Citation: Soomaroo L, Murray V. Weather and Environmental Hazards at Mass Gatherings. PLoS Currents Disasters. 2012 Jul 31 Keywords: Mass Gatherings, Disasters, Sporting Events, Festivals, Concerts, Storm, Lightning, Cyclone, Hot-weather illness, Cold-weather illness, Disease, Public Health, Syndromic Surveillance Abbreviations: ALS – Advance Life support; BLS – Basic Life support; ED – Emergency Department; EMS – Emergency Medical Services; PPR – Patient Presentation Rate PMID:22953242

RAMSES: a nowcasting system for mitigating geo-hydrological risk along the railway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabriele, Salvatore; Terranova, Oreste G.; Pascale, Stefania; Rago, Valeria; Chiaravalloti, Francesco; Sabatino, Pietro; Brocca, Luca; Laviola, Sante; Baldini, Luca; Federico, Stefano; Miglietta, Mario M.; Marra, Gian Paolo; Niccoli, Raffaele; Arcuri, Salvatore; Catalano, Filippo; Stassi, Sergio; Baccillieri, Maurizio; Agostino, Mario; Iovine, Giulio G. R.

2016-04-01

In recent years, a number of exceptional rainfall events of short / very short duration (from 15 minutes to about 2 hours) caused incidents and service interruptions due to landslides, collapses of bridges, and erosion of the ballast, along the Calabrian railway. RAMSES (RAilway Meteorological SEcurity System) is a pilot CNR project, recently co-funded by RFI S.p.A. and aimed at mitigating the risk along the railway. Forecasting of weather events responsible of heavy convective rainfall, even when provided with some advance, is not generally performed with reliable localization. In fact, objective limits of the numerical weather prediction derive from grid resolution, often exceeding the size of convective cells. These phenomena, whose recurrence periods seem to show a reduction due to climate changes, affect limited areas and are characterized by a very short life cycle. As a consequence, failures of hydraulic crossings are increasingly being recorded together with landslide-related debris invasion along the drainage network and slopes. RAMSES aims at improving short term (3-6 hours) weather forecasts and ground effects at local scale. The employed approach is base on synergistic and integrated operational tools to provide weather information on small-size basins. The system will also allow to promptly identify and track the short-term evolution (15-60 min) of convective cells, by means of imaging techniques based on quasi-real time radar and Meteosat data. The extension of the temporal horizon of the forecast up to three hours will be performed by using the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) model. This latter employs, as a "first guess", the output of the WRF numerical model: such analyses are updated and improved by means of observational data from different instruments (e.g. on land weather stations, radar, satellites, etc.). Finally, the assessment of ground effects will be accomplished for selected study areas, by means of landslide susceptibility mapping combined with hydrological, rainfall-runoff and hydraulic flow modeling.

A Geospatial Database that Supports Derivation of Climatological Features of Severe Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, M.; Ansari, S.; Del Greco, S.

2007-12-01

The Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI) at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) provides user access to archives of several datasets critical to the detection and evaluation of severe weather. These datasets include archives of: · NEXRAD Level-III point features describing general storm structure, hail, mesocyclone and tornado signatures · National Weather Service Storm Events Database · National Weather Service Local Storm Reports collected from storm spotters · National Weather Service Warnings · Lightning strikes from Vaisala's National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) SWDI archives all of these datasets in a spatial database that allows for convenient searching and subsetting. These data are accessible via the NCDC web site, Web Feature Services (WFS) or automated web services. The results of interactive web page queries may be saved in a variety of formats, including plain text, XML, Google Earth's KMZ, standards-based NetCDF and Shapefile. NCDC's Storm Risk Assessment Project (SRAP) uses data from the SWDI database to derive gridded climatology products that show the spatial distributions of the frequency of various events. SRAP also can relate SWDI events to other spatial data such as roads, population, watersheds, and other geographic, sociological, or economic data to derive products that are useful in municipal planning, emergency management, the insurance industry, and other areas where there is a need to quantify and qualify how severe weather patterns affect people and property.

A study of the correlation between dengue and weather in Kandy City, Sri Lanka (2003 -2012) and lessons learned.

PubMed

Ehelepola, N D B; Ariyaratne, Kusalika; Buddhadasa, W M N P; Ratnayake, Sunil; Wickramasinghe, Malani

2015-09-24

Weather variables affect dengue transmission. This study aimed to identify a dengue weather correlation pattern in Kandy, Sri Lanka, compare the results with results of similar studies, and establish ways for better control and prevention of dengue. We collected data on reported dengue cases in Kandy and mid-year population data from 2003 to 2012, and calculated weekly incidences. We obtained daily weather data from two weather stations and converted it into weekly data. We studied correlation patterns between dengue incidence and weather variables using the wavelet time series analysis, and then calculated cross-correlation coefficients to find magnitudes of correlations. We found a positive correlation between dengue incidence and rainfall in millimeters, the number of rainy and wet days, the minimum temperature, and the night and daytime, as well as average, humidity, mostly with a five- to seven-week lag. Additionally, we found correlations between dengue incidence and maximum and average temperatures, hours of sunshine, and wind, with longer lag periods. Dengue incidences showed a negative correlation with wind run. Our results showed that rainfall, temperature, humidity, hours of sunshine, and wind are correlated with local dengue incidence. We have suggested ways to improve dengue management routines and to control it in these times of global warming. We also noticed that the results of dengue weather correlation studies can vary depending on the data analysis.

Performance of FSO Links using CSRZ, RZ, and NRZ and Effects of Atmospheric Turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadeem, Lubna; Saadullah Qazi, M.; Hassam, Ammar

2018-04-01

Free space optical (FSO) communication is a wireless communication technology in which data is transferred from one point to another through highly directed beam of light. The main factors that limit the FSO link availability is the local weather conditions. It guarantees the potential of high bandwidth capacity over unlicensed optical wavelengths. The transmission medium of FSO is atmosphere and is significantly affected by the various weather conditions such as rain, fog, snow, wind, etc. In this paper, the modulation techniques under consideration are RZ, NRZ and CSRZ. Analysis is carried out regarding Q-factor with respect to varying distance, bit rates and input laser power.

Climate change and health in Israel: adaptation policies for extreme weather events.

PubMed

Green, Manfred S; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Capeluto, Guedi; Epstein, Yoram; Paz, Shlomit

2013-06-27

Climatic changes have increased the world-wide frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, storms and droughts. These extreme events potentially affect the health status of millions of people, increasing disease and death. Since mitigation of climate change is a long and complex process, emphasis has recently been placed on the measures required for adaptation. Although the principles underlying these measures are universal, preparedness plans and policies need to be tailored to local conditions. In this paper, we conducted a review of the literature on the possible health consequences of extreme weather events in Israel, where the conditions are characteristic of the Mediterranean region. Strong evidence indicates that the frequency and duration of several types of extreme weather events are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin, including Israel. We examined the public health policy implications for adaptation to climate change in the region, and proposed public health adaptation policy options. Preparedness for the public health impact of increased extreme weather events is still relatively limited and clear public health policies are urgently needed. These include improved early warning and monitoring systems, preparedness of the health system, educational programs and the living environment. Regional collaboration should be a priority.

A methodology to leverage cross-sectional accelerometry to capture weather's influence in active living research.

PubMed

Katapally, Tarun R; Rainham, Daniel; Muhajarine, Nazeem

2016-06-27

While active living interventions focus on modifying urban design and built environment, weather variation, a phenomenon that perennially interacts with these environmental factors, is consistently underexplored. This study's objective is to develop a methodology to link weather data with existing cross-sectional accelerometry data in capturing weather variation. Saskatoon's neighbourhoods were classified into grid-pattern, fractured grid-pattern and curvilinear neighbourhoods. Thereafter, 137 Actical accelerometers were used to derive moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and sedentary behaviour (SB) data from 455 children in 25 sequential one-week cycles between April and June, 2010. This sequential deployment was necessary to overcome the difference in the ratio between the sample size and the number of accelerometers. A data linkage methodology was developed, where each accelerometry cycle was matched with localized (Saskatoon-specific) weather patterns derived from Environment Canada. Statistical analyses were conducted to depict the influence of urban design on MVPA and SB after factoring in localized weather patterns. Integration of cross-sectional accelerometry with localized weather patterns allowed the capture of weather variation during a single seasonal transition. Overall, during the transition from spring to summer in Saskatoon, MVPA increased and SB decreased during warmer days. After factoring in localized weather, a recurring observation was that children residing in fractured grid-pattern neighbourhoods accumulated significantly lower MVPA and higher SB. The proposed methodology could be utilized to link globally available cross-sectional accelerometry data with place-specific weather data to understand how built and social environmental factors interact with varying weather patterns in influencing active living.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARINE PRODUCTS VIA NOAA WEATHER RADIO

Science.gov Websites

! Boating Safety Beach Hazards Rip Currents Hypothermia Hurricanes Thunderstorms Lightning Coastal Flooding Radio network provides voice broadcasts of local and coastal marine forecasts on a continuous cycle. The forecasts are produced by local National Weather Service Forecast Offices. Coastal stations also broadcast

A Big Data Approach for Situation-Aware estimation, correction and prediction of aerosol effects, based on MODIS Joint Atmosphere product (collection 6) time series data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, A. K.; Toshniwal, D.

2017-12-01

The MODIS Joint Atmosphere product, MODATML2 and MYDATML2 L2/3 provided by LAADS DAAC (Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive & Distribution System Distributed Active Archive Center) re-sampled from medium resolution MODIS Terra /Aqua Satellites data at 5km scale, contains Cloud Reflectance, Cloud Top Temperature, Water Vapor, Aerosol Optical Depth/Thickness, Humidity data. These re-sampled data, when used for deriving climatic effects of aerosols (particularly in case of cooling effect) still exposes limitations in presence of uncertainty measures in atmospheric artifacts such as aerosol, cloud, cirrus cloud etc. The effect of uncertainty measures in these artifacts imposes an important challenge for estimation of aerosol effects, adequately affecting precise regional weather modeling and predictions: Forecasting and recommendation applications developed largely depend on these short-term local conditions (e.g. City/Locality based recommendations to citizens/farmers based on local weather models). Our approach inculcates artificial intelligence technique for representing heterogeneous data(satellite data along with air quality data from local weather stations (i.e. in situ data)) to learn, correct and predict aerosol effects in the presence of cloud and other atmospheric artifacts, defusing Spatio-temporal correlations and regressions. The Big Data process pipeline consisting correlation and regression techniques developed on Apache Spark platform can easily scale for large data sets including many tiles (scenes) and over widened time-scale. Keywords: Climatic Effects of Aerosols, Situation-Aware, Big Data, Apache Spark, MODIS Terra /Aqua, Time Series

The Land of the Summer People, a multidisciplinary educational experiment in flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández Arconada, S.; Wagener, T.

2015-12-01

Our changing climate brings with it unpredictable extreme weather events.Therefore working creatively with communities to generate sustainable solutions becomes vital, to be more resilient to an uncertain environmental future. The Land of the Summer People (TLOTSP) is an experiment regarding the unstable relationship between society, water and place by exploring flooding impacts in Somerset (UK). Using creative and scientific methods this multidisciplinary project applies participatory research to understand societal responses to extreme weather events, including academics, practitioners and local communities to generate an open dialogue from the local to the global (climate change). TLOTSP is a joint project between and artist and an engineer. During this project the artist developed a number of creative activities to facilitate dialogue with both engineering students and local artists working together in the case study: Flooding in Somerset Levels and Moors. Each working group generated a particular method to work in collaboration, together with locals in Somerset, while also creating an artistic outcome as a result of the process. We worked around communication looking at how disciplinary training [academics] acquire the capacity for the specialised "coding" of information, a language that detaches from the wider apprehension. We asked whether art could offer a language to facilitate the process of "decoding" knowledge. In addition, we looked at how communities affected by extreme weather events perceive and communicate the historical context, realising that responses are determined by living memory rather than archival history. This helped us to understand how short-term connections with nature have shaped the way we live today.

Weather Regulates Location, Timing, and Intensity of Dengue Virus Transmission between Humans and Mosquitoes.

PubMed

Campbell, Karen M; Haldeman, Kristin; Lehnig, Chris; Munayco, Cesar V; Halsey, Eric S; Laguna-Torres, V Alberto; Yagui, Martín; Morrison, Amy C; Lin, Chii-Dean; Scott, Thomas W

2015-01-01

Dengue is one of the most aggressively expanding mosquito-transmitted viruses. The human burden approaches 400 million infections annually. Complex transmission dynamics pose challenges for predicting location, timing, and magnitude of risk; thus, models are needed to guide prevention strategies and policy development locally and globally. Weather regulates transmission-potential via its effects on vector dynamics. An important gap in understanding risk and roadblock in model development is an empirical perspective clarifying how weather impacts transmission in diverse ecological settings. We sought to determine if location, timing, and potential-intensity of transmission are systematically defined by weather. We developed a high-resolution empirical profile of the local weather-disease connection across Peru, a country with considerable ecological diversity. Applying 2-dimensional weather-space that pairs temperature versus humidity, we mapped local transmission-potential in weather-space by week during 1994-2012. A binary classification-tree was developed to test whether weather data could classify 1828 Peruvian districts as positive/negative for transmission and into ranks of transmission-potential with respect to observed disease. We show that transmission-potential is regulated by temperature-humidity coupling, enabling epidemics in a limited area of weather-space. Duration within a specific temperature range defines transmission-potential that is amplified exponentially in higher humidity. Dengue-positive districts were identified by mean temperature >22°C for 7+ weeks and minimum temperature >14°C for 33+ weeks annually with 95% sensitivity and specificity. In elevated-risk locations, seasonal peak-incidence occurred when mean temperature was 26-29°C, coincident with humidity at its local maximum; highest incidence when humidity >80%. We profile transmission-potential in weather-space for temperature-humidity ranging 0-38°C and 5-100% at 1°C x 2% resolution. Local duration in limited areas of temperature-humidity weather-space identifies potential locations, timing, and magnitude of transmission. The weather-space profile of transmission-potential provides needed data that define a systematic and highly-sensitive weather-disease connection, demonstrating separate but coupled roles of temperature and humidity. New insights regarding natural regulation of human-mosquito transmission across diverse ecological settings advance our understanding of risk locally and globally for dengue and other mosquito-borne diseases and support advances in public health policy/operations, providing an evidence-base for modeling, predicting risk, and surveillance-prevention planning.

Timing of seasonal migration in mule deer: effects of climate, plant phenology, and life-history characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monteith, Kevin L.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Stephenson, Thomas R.; Pierce, Beck M.; Conner, Mary M.; Klaver, Robert W.; Bowyer, R. Terry

2011-01-01

Phenological events of plants and animals are sensitive to climatic processes. Migration is a life-history event exhibited by most large herbivores living in seasonal environments, and is thought to occur in response to dynamics of forage and weather. Decisions regarding when to migrate, however, may be affected by differences in life-history characteristics of individuals. Long-term and intensive study of a population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA, allowed us to document patterns of migration during 11 years that encompassed a wide array of environmental conditions. We used two new techniques to properly account for interval-censored data and disentangle effects of broad-scale climate, local weather patterns, and plant phenology on seasonal patterns of migration, while incorporating effects of individual life-history characteristics. Timing of autumn migration varied substantially among individual deer, but was associated with the severity of winter weather, and in particular, snow depth and cold temperatures. Migratory responses to winter weather, however, were affected by age, nutritional condition, and summer residency of individual females. Old females and those in good nutritional condition risked encountering severe weather by delaying autumn migration, and were thus risk-prone with respect to the potential loss of foraging opportunities in deep snow compared with young females and those in poor nutritional condition. Females that summered on the west side of the crest of the Sierra Nevada delayed autumn migration relative to east-side females, which supports the influence of the local environment on timing of migration. In contrast, timing of spring migration was unrelated to individual life-history characteristics, was nearly twice as synchronous as autumn migration, differed among years, was related to the southern oscillation index, and was influenced by absolute snow depth and advancing phenology of plants. Plasticity in timing of migration in response to climatic conditions and plant phenology may be an adaptive behavioral strategy, which should reduce the detrimental effects of trophic mismatches between resources and other life-history events of large herbivores. Failure to consider effects of nutrition and other life-history traits may cloud interpretation of phenological patterns of mammals and conceal relationships associated with climate change.

Applied environmental fluid mechanics: what's the weather in your backyard?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chow, F. K.

2011-12-01

The microclimates of the San Francisco Bay Area can lead to 30-40F differences in temperature from the coast to just 30 miles inland. The reasons for this include local topography which affects development of the atmospheric boundary layer. A Bay Area resident's experience of fog, air pollution, and weather events therefore differs greatly depending on exactly where they live. Such local weather phenomena provide a natural topic for introduction to boundary layer processes and are the basis of a new course developed at the University of California, Berkeley. This course complements the PI's research focus on numerical methods applied to atmospheric boundary layer flow over complex terrain. This new outreach and research-based course was created to teach students about the boundary layer and teach them how to use a community weather prediction model, WRF, to simulate conditions in the local area, while at the same time being actively involved in public outreach. The course was offered in the Civil and Environmental Engineering department with the collaboration and support of the Lawrence Hall of Science, Berkeley's public science museum. The students chose topics such as air quality, wind energy, climate change, and plume dispersion, all applied to the local San Francisco Bay Area. The students conducted independent research on their team projects, involving literature reviews, numerical model setup, and analysis of model results through comparison with field observations. The outreach component of the course included website design and culminated in demonstrations at the Lawrence Hall of Science. The seven student teams presented hands-on demos to 300-400 visitors, mostly kids 4-9 years old and their parents. Involving students directly in outreach efforts is hoped to encourage continued integration of research and education in their own careers. Early exposure to numerical modeling also improves student technical skills for future career experiences . Given positive feedback from students, the course will now be offered regularly as a senior design class which will also fulfill engineering graduation requirements.

Aviation Terminal Forecasts

Science.gov Websites

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Correlating weather and trauma admissions at a level I trauma center.

PubMed

Rising, William R; O'Daniel, Joseph A; Roberts, Craig S

2006-05-01

Popular emergency room wisdom touts higher temperatures, snowfall, weekends, and evenings as variables that increase trauma admissions. This study analyzed the possible correlation between trauma admissions and specific weather variables, and between trauma admissions and time of day or season. Trauma admission data from a Level I trauma center database from July 1, 1996 to January 31, 2002 was downloaded and linked with local weather data from the Archives of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website, and then analyzed. There were 8,269 trauma admissions over a total of 48,984 hours for an average of one admission every 6 hours. Daily high temperature and precipitation were valid predictors of trauma admission volume, with a 5.25% increase in hourly incidents for each 10-degree difference in temperature, and a 60% to 78% increase in the incident rate for each inch of precipitation in the previous 3 hours. Weather and seasonal variations affect admissions at a Level I trauma center. Data from this study could be useful for determining staffing requirements and resource allocation.

The impact of reflectivity correction and conversion methods to improve precipitation estimation by weather radar for an extreme low-land Mesoscale Convective System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazenberg, Pieter; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko

2014-05-01

Between 25 and 27 August 2010 a long-duration mesoscale convective system was observed above the Netherlands. For most of the country this led to over 15 hours of near-continuous precipitation, which resulted in total event accumulations exceeding 150 mm in the eastern part of the Netherlands. Such accumulations belong to the largest sums ever recorded in this country and gave rise to local flooding. Measuring precipitation by weather radar within such mesoscale convective systems is known to be a challenge, since measurements are affected by multiple sources of error. For the current event the operational weather radar rainfall product only estimated about 30% of the actual amount of precipitation as measured by rain gauges. In the current presentation we will try to identify what gave rise to such large underestimations. In general weather radar measurement errors can be subdivided into two different groups: 1) errors affecting the volumetric reflectivity measurements taken, and 2) errors related to the conversion of reflectivity values in rainfall intensity and attenuation estimates. To correct for the first group of errors, the quality of the weather radar reflectivity data was improved by successively correcting for 1) clutter and anomalous propagation, 2) radar calibration, 3) wet radome attenuation, 4) signal attenuation and 5) the vertical profile of reflectivity. Such consistent corrections are generally not performed by operational meteorological services. Results show a large improvement in the quality of the precipitation data, however still only ~65% of the actual observed accumulations was estimated. To further improve the quality of the precipitation estimates, the second group of errors are corrected for by making use of disdrometer measurements taken in close vicinity of the radar. Based on these data the parameters of a normalized drop size distribution are estimated for the total event as well as for each precipitation type separately (convective, stratiform and undefined). These are then used to obtain coherent parameter sets for the radar reflectivity-rainfall rate (Z-R) and radar reflectivity-attenuation (Z-k) relationship, specifically applicable for this event. By applying a single parameter set to correct for both sources of errors, the quality of the rainfall product improves further, leading to >80% of the observed accumulations. However, by differentiating between precipitation type no better results are obtained as when using the operational relationships. This leads to the question: how representative are local disdrometer observations to correct large scale weather radar measurements? In order to tackle this question a Monte Carlo approach was used to generate >10000 sets of the normalized dropsize distribution parameters and to assess their impact on the estimated precipitation amounts. Results show that a large number of parameter sets result in improved precipitation estimated by the weather radar closely resembling observations. However, these optimal sets vary considerably as compared to those obtained from the local disdrometer measurements.

SEASAT economic assessment. Volume 9: Ports and harbors case study and generalization. [economic benefits of SEASAT satellites to harbors and shipping industries through improved weather forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

This case study and generalization quantify benefits made possible through improved weather forecasting resulting from the integration of SEASAT data into local weather forecasts. The major source of avoidable economic losses to shipping from inadequate weather forecasting data is shown to be dependent on local precipitation forecasting. The ports of Philadelphia and Boston were selected for study.

Improved estimation of heavy rainfall by weather radar after reflectivity correction and accounting for raindrop size distribution variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazenberg, Pieter; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko

2015-04-01

Between 25 and 27 August 2010 a long-duration mesoscale convective system was observed above the Netherlands, locally giving rise to rainfall accumulations exceeding 150 mm. Correctly measuring the amount of precipitation during such an extreme event is important, both from a hydrological and meteorological perspective. Unfortunately, the operational weather radar measurements were affected by multiple sources of error and only 30% of the precipitation observed by rain gauges was estimated. Such an underestimation of heavy rainfall, albeit generally less strong than in this extreme case, is typical for operational weather radar in The Netherlands. In general weather radar measurement errors can be subdivided into two groups: (1) errors affecting the volumetric reflectivity measurements (e.g. ground clutter, radar calibration, vertical profile of reflectivity) and (2) errors resulting from variations in the raindrop size distribution that in turn result in incorrect rainfall intensity and attenuation estimates from observed reflectivity measurements. A stepwise procedure to correct for the first group of errors leads to large improvements in the quality of the estimated precipitation, increasing the radar rainfall accumulations to about 65% of those observed by gauges. To correct for the second group of errors, a coherent method is presented linking the parameters of the radar reflectivity-rain rate (Z-R) and radar reflectivity-specific attenuation (Z-k) relationships to the normalized drop size distribution (DSD). Two different procedures were applied. First, normalized DSD parameters for the whole event and for each precipitation type separately (convective, stratiform and undefined) were obtained using local disdrometer observations. Second, 10,000 randomly generated plausible normalized drop size distributions were used for rainfall estimation, to evaluate whether this Monte Carlo method would improve the quality of weather radar rainfall products. Using the disdrometer information, the best results were obtained in case no differentiation between precipitation type (convective, stratiform and undefined) was made, increasing the event accumulations to more than 80% of those observed by gauges. For the randomly optimized procedure, radar precipitation estimates further improve and closely resemble observations in case one differentiates between precipitation type. However, the optimal parameter sets are very different from those derived from disdrometer observations. It is therefore questionable if single disdrometer observations are suitable for large-scale quantitative precipitation estimation, especially if the disdrometer is located relatively far away from the main rain event, which was the case in this study. In conclusion, this study shows the benefit of applying detailed error correction methods to improve the quality of the weather radar product, but also confirms the need to be cautious using locally obtained disdrometer measurements.

The impact of reflectivity correction and accounting for raindrop size distribution variability to improve precipitation estimation by weather radar for an extreme low-land mesoscale convective system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazenberg, Pieter; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko

2014-11-01

Between 25 and 27 August 2010 a long-duration mesoscale convective system was observed above the Netherlands, locally giving rise to rainfall accumulations exceeding 150 mm. Correctly measuring the amount of precipitation during such an extreme event is important, both from a hydrological and meteorological perspective. Unfortunately, the operational weather radar measurements were affected by multiple sources of error and only 30% of the precipitation observed by rain gauges was estimated. Such an underestimation of heavy rainfall, albeit generally less strong than in this extreme case, is typical for operational weather radar in The Netherlands. In general weather radar measurement errors can be subdivided into two groups: (1) errors affecting the volumetric reflectivity measurements (e.g. ground clutter, radar calibration, vertical profile of reflectivity) and (2) errors resulting from variations in the raindrop size distribution that in turn result in incorrect rainfall intensity and attenuation estimates from observed reflectivity measurements. A stepwise procedure to correct for the first group of errors leads to large improvements in the quality of the estimated precipitation, increasing the radar rainfall accumulations to about 65% of those observed by gauges. To correct for the second group of errors, a coherent method is presented linking the parameters of the radar reflectivity-rain rate (Z - R) and radar reflectivity-specific attenuation (Z - k) relationships to the normalized drop size distribution (DSD). Two different procedures were applied. First, normalized DSD parameters for the whole event and for each precipitation type separately (convective, stratiform and undefined) were obtained using local disdrometer observations. Second, 10,000 randomly generated plausible normalized drop size distributions were used for rainfall estimation, to evaluate whether this Monte Carlo method would improve the quality of weather radar rainfall products. Using the disdrometer information, the best results were obtained in case no differentiation between precipitation type (convective, stratiform and undefined) was made, increasing the event accumulations to more than 80% of those observed by gauges. For the randomly optimized procedure, radar precipitation estimates further improve and closely resemble observations in case one differentiates between precipitation type. However, the optimal parameter sets are very different from those derived from disdrometer observations. It is therefore questionable if single disdrometer observations are suitable for large-scale quantitative precipitation estimation, especially if the disdrometer is located relatively far away from the main rain event, which was the case in this study. In conclusion, this study shows the benefit of applying detailed error correction methods to improve the quality of the weather radar product, but also confirms the need to be cautious using locally obtained disdrometer measurements.

Lithological and textural controls on radar and diurnal thermal signatures of weathered volcanic deposits, Lunar Crater region, Nevada

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Plaut, Jeffrey J.; Rivard, Benoit

1992-01-01

Radar backscatter intensity as measured by calibrated synthetic aperture radar (SAR) systems is primarily controlled by three factors: local incidence angle, wavelength-scale roughness, and dielectric permittivity of surface materials. Radar observations may be of limited use for geological investigations of surface composition, unless the relationships between lithology and the above characteristics can be adequately understood. In arid terrains, such as the Southwest U.S., weathering signatures (e.g. soil development, fracturing, debris grain size and shape, and hill slope characteristics) are controlled to some extent by lithologic characteristics of the parent bedrock. These textural features of outcrops and their associated debris will affect radar backscatter to varying degrees, and the multiple-wavelength capability of the JPL Airborne SAR (AIRSAR) system allows sampling of textures at three distinct scales. Diurnal temperature excursions of geologic surfaces are controlled primarily by the thermal inertia of surface materials, which is a measure of the resistance of a material to a change in temperature. Other influences include albedo, surface slopes affecting insolation, local meteorological conditions and surface emissivity at the relevant thermal wavelengths. To first order, thermal inertia variations on arid terrain surfaces result from grain size distribution and porosity differences, at scales ranging from micrometers to tens of meters. Diurnal thermal emission observations, such as those made by the JPL Thermal Infrared Multispectral Scanner (TIMS) airborne instrument, are thus influenced by geometric surface characteristics at scales comparable to those controlling radar backscatter. A preliminary report on a project involving a combination of field, laboratory and remote sensing observations of weathered felsic-to basaltic volcanic rock units exposed in the southern part of the Lunar Crater Volcanic Field, in the Pancake Range of central Nevada is presented. Focus is on the relationship of radar backscatter cross sections at multiple wavelengths, apparent diurnal temperature excursions identified in multi-temporal TIMS images, surface geometries related to weathering style, and parent bedrock lithology.

Environmental Impact Specification for Direct Space Weathering of Kuiper Belt and Oort Cloud Objects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, John F.

2010-01-01

The Direct Space Weathering Project of NASA's Outer Planets Research Program addresses specification of the plasma and energetic particle environments for irradiation and surface chemical processing of icy bodies in the outer solar system and the local interstellar medium. Knowledge of the radiation environments is being expanded by ongoing penetration of the twin Voyager spacecraft into the heliosheath boundary region of the outer heliosphere and expected emergence within the next decade into the very local interstellar medium. The Voyager measurements are being supplemented by remote sensing from Earth orbit of energetic neutral atom emission from this boundary region by NASA's Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX). Although the Voyagers long ago passed the region of the Classical Kuiper Belt, the New Horizons spacecraft will encounter Pluto in 2015 and thereafter explore one or more KBOs, meanwhile providing updated measurements of the heliospheric radiation environment in this region. Modeling of ion transport within the heliosphere allows specification of time-integrated irradiation effects while the combination of Voyager and IBEX data supports projection of the in-situ measurements into interstellar space beyond the heliosheath. Transformation of model ion flux distributions into surface sputtering and volume ionization profiles provides a multi-layer perspective for space weathering impact on the affected icy bodies and may account for some aspects of color and compositional diversity. Other important related factors may include surface erosion and gardening by meteoritic impacts and surface renewal by cryovolcanism. Chemical products of space weathering may contribute to energy resources for the latter.

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on air pollution-related health effects in the United States.

PubMed Central

Bernard, S M; Samet, J M; Grambsch, A; Ebi, K L; Romieu, I

2001-01-01

Climate change may affect exposures to air pollutants by affecting weather, anthropogenic emissions, and biogenic emissions and by changing the distribution and types of airborne allergens. Local temperature, precipitation, clouds, atmospheric water vapor, wind speed, and wind direction influence atmospheric chemical processes, and interactions occur between local and global-scale environments. If the climate becomes warmer and more variable, air quality is likely to be affected. However, the specific types of change (i.e., local, regional, or global), the direction of change in a particular location (i.e., positive or negative), and the magnitude of change in air quality that may be attributable to climate change are a matter of speculation, based on extrapolating present understanding to future scenarios. There is already extensive evidence on the health effects of air pollution. Ground-level ozone can exacerbate chronic respiratory diseases and cause short-term reductions in lung function. Exposure to particulate matter can aggravate chronic respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, alter host defenses, damage lung tissue, lead to premature death, and possibly contribute to cancer. Health effects of exposures to carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide can include reduced work capacity, aggravation of existing cardiovascular diseases, effects on pulmonary function, respiratory illnesses, lung irritation, and alterations in the lung's defense systems. Adaptations to climate change should include ensuring responsiveness of air quality protection programs to changing pollution levels. Research needs include basic atmospheric science work on the association between weather and air pollutants; improving air pollution models and their linkage with climate change scenarios; and closing gaps in the understanding of exposure patterns and health effects. PMID:11359687

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on air pollution-related health effects in the United States.

PubMed

Bernard, S M; Samet, J M; Grambsch, A; Ebi, K L; Romieu, I

2001-05-01

Climate change may affect exposures to air pollutants by affecting weather, anthropogenic emissions, and biogenic emissions and by changing the distribution and types of airborne allergens. Local temperature, precipitation, clouds, atmospheric water vapor, wind speed, and wind direction influence atmospheric chemical processes, and interactions occur between local and global-scale environments. If the climate becomes warmer and more variable, air quality is likely to be affected. However, the specific types of change (i.e., local, regional, or global), the direction of change in a particular location (i.e., positive or negative), and the magnitude of change in air quality that may be attributable to climate change are a matter of speculation, based on extrapolating present understanding to future scenarios. There is already extensive evidence on the health effects of air pollution. Ground-level ozone can exacerbate chronic respiratory diseases and cause short-term reductions in lung function. Exposure to particulate matter can aggravate chronic respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, alter host defenses, damage lung tissue, lead to premature death, and possibly contribute to cancer. Health effects of exposures to carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide can include reduced work capacity, aggravation of existing cardiovascular diseases, effects on pulmonary function, respiratory illnesses, lung irritation, and alterations in the lung's defense systems. Adaptations to climate change should include ensuring responsiveness of air quality protection programs to changing pollution levels. Research needs include basic atmospheric science work on the association between weather and air pollutants; improving air pollution models and their linkage with climate change scenarios; and closing gaps in the understanding of exposure patterns and health effects.

Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health.

PubMed

Bell, Jesse E; Brown, Claudia Langford; Conlon, Kathryn; Herring, Stephanie; Kunkel, Kenneth E; Lawrimore, Jay; Luber, George; Schreck, Carl; Smith, Adam; Uejio, Christopher

2018-04-01

Extreme weather and climate-related events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, dust storms, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden. More information is needed about the impacts of climate change on public health and economies to effectively plan for and adapt to climate change. This paper describes some of the ways extreme events are changing and provides examples of the potential impacts on human health and infrastructure. It also identifies key research gaps to be addressed to improve the resilience of public health to extreme events in the future. Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.

Surface Transportation Weather Decision Support Requirements - Executive Summary, Version 1.0

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-12-16

WEATHER: IT AFFECTS THE VISIBILITY, TRACTABILITY, MANEUVERABILITY, VEHICLE STABILITY, EXHAUST EMISSIONS AND STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY OF THE SURFACE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM. THEREBY WEATHER AFFECTS THE SAFETY, MOBILITY, PRODUCTIVITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT...

Page not found

Science.gov Websites

) Kohala (PHKM) South Point (PHWA) Forecasts Activity Planner Hawaii Marine Aviation Fire Weather Local Activity Planner Hawaii Marine Aviation Fire Weather Local Graphics National Graphics Model Output Climate

A statistical model to estimate the local vulnerability to severe weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pardowitz, Tobias

2018-06-01

We present a spatial analysis of weather-related fire brigade operations in Berlin. By comparing operation occurrences to insured losses for a set of severe weather events we demonstrate the representativeness and usefulness of such data in the analysis of weather impacts on local scales. We investigate factors influencing the local rate of operation occurrence. While depending on multiple factors - which are often not available - we focus on publicly available quantities. These include topographic features, land use information based on satellite data and information on urban structure based on data from the OpenStreetMap project. After identifying suitable predictors such as housing coverage or local density of the road network we set up a statistical model to be able to predict the average occurrence frequency of local fire brigade operations. Such model can be used to determine potential hotspots for weather impacts even in areas or cities where no systematic records are available and can thus serve as a basis for a broad range of tools or applications in emergency management and planning.

The state of broadcast meteorology in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trobec, J.

2010-09-01

According to a 2010 study by the Radio, Television Digital News Association, there are 762 television stations in the U.S. producing local news (and presumably weather) content. Those stations reported staff reductions of 400 news department jobs in 2009, following a cut of 1,200 local news jobs in 2008. Even as the number of news employees declined, local stations increased the amount of local news programming from an average of 4.7 hours to 5.0 hours per weekday in the past year. The phrase "doing more with less" has become a common theme in television newsrooms. Broadcasting economics have also impacted the approximately 2,200 weather presenters on local television stations. Several high-profile, on-air meteorologists have lost their jobs. The workload of weather presenters is evolving as television stations extend their reach beyond broadcasting — to the internet, and wireless (e.g. cellular telephone) delivery of information. Technological advancements have improved televised severe weather coverage. The number of amateur storm chasers possessing video streaming equipment has grown signicantly, and social networks such as Twitter have become a useful source of weather reports from the public.

Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

2005-01-01

This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

Accumulation mechanisms and the weathering of Antarctic equilibrated ordinary chondrites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benoit, P. H.; Sears, D. W. G.

1999-06-01

Induced thermoluminescence (TL) is used to quantitatively evaluate the degree of weathering of meteorites found in Antarctica. We find a weak correlation between TL sensitivity and descriptions of weathering in hand specimens, the highly weathered meteorites having lower TL sensitivity than unweathered meteorites. Analysis of samples taken throughout large meteorites shows that the heterogeneity in TL sensitivity within meteorite finds is not large relative to the range exhibited by different weathered meteorites. The TL sensitivity values can be restored by minimal acid washing, suggesting the lower TL sensitivities of weathered meteorites reflects thin weathering rims on mineral grains or coating of these grains by iron oxides produced by hydration and oxidation of metal and sulfides. Small meteorites may tend to be more highly weathered than large meteorites at the Allan Hills ice fields. We find that meteorite fragments >150 g may take up to 300,000 years to reach the highest degrees of weathering, while meteorites <150 g require <40,000 years. However, at other fields, local environmental conditions and variability in terrestrial history are more important in determining weathering than size alone. Weathering correlates poorly with surface exposure duration, presumably because weathering occurs primarily during interglacial periods. The Allan Hills locality has served as a fairly stable surface over the last 100,000 years or so and has efficiently preserved both small and large meteorites. Meteorites from Lewis Cliff, however, have experienced extensive weathering, probably because of increased surface melt water from nearby outcrops. Meteorites from the Elephant Moraine locality tend to exhibit only minor degrees of weathering, but small meteorites are less weathered than large meteorites, which we suggest is due to the loss of small meteorites by aeolian transport.

Weather Regulates Location, Timing, and Intensity of Dengue Virus Transmission between Humans and Mosquitoes

PubMed Central

Campbell, Karen M.; Haldeman, Kristin; Lehnig, Chris; Munayco, Cesar V.; Halsey, Eric S.; Laguna-Torres, V. Alberto; Yagui, Martín; Morrison, Amy C.; Lin, Chii-Dean; Scott, Thomas W.

2015-01-01

Background Dengue is one of the most aggressively expanding mosquito-transmitted viruses. The human burden approaches 400 million infections annually. Complex transmission dynamics pose challenges for predicting location, timing, and magnitude of risk; thus, models are needed to guide prevention strategies and policy development locally and globally. Weather regulates transmission-potential via its effects on vector dynamics. An important gap in understanding risk and roadblock in model development is an empirical perspective clarifying how weather impacts transmission in diverse ecological settings. We sought to determine if location, timing, and potential-intensity of transmission are systematically defined by weather. Methodology/Principal Findings We developed a high-resolution empirical profile of the local weather-disease connection across Peru, a country with considerable ecological diversity. Applying 2-dimensional weather-space that pairs temperature versus humidity, we mapped local transmission-potential in weather-space by week during 1994-2012. A binary classification-tree was developed to test whether weather data could classify 1828 Peruvian districts as positive/negative for transmission and into ranks of transmission-potential with respect to observed disease. We show that transmission-potential is regulated by temperature-humidity coupling, enabling epidemics in a limited area of weather-space. Duration within a specific temperature range defines transmission-potential that is amplified exponentially in higher humidity. Dengue-positive districts were identified by mean temperature >22°C for 7+ weeks and minimum temperature >14°C for 33+ weeks annually with 95% sensitivity and specificity. In elevated-risk locations, seasonal peak-incidence occurred when mean temperature was 26-29°C, coincident with humidity at its local maximum; highest incidence when humidity >80%. We profile transmission-potential in weather-space for temperature-humidity ranging 0-38°C and 5-100% at 1°C x 2% resolution. Conclusions/Significance Local duration in limited areas of temperature-humidity weather-space identifies potential locations, timing, and magnitude of transmission. The weather-space profile of transmission-potential provides needed data that define a systematic and highly-sensitive weather-disease connection, demonstrating separate but coupled roles of temperature and humidity. New insights regarding natural regulation of human-mosquito transmission across diverse ecological settings advance our understanding of risk locally and globally for dengue and other mosquito-borne diseases and support advances in public health policy/operations, providing an evidence-base for modeling, predicting risk, and surveillance-prevention planning. PMID:26222979

Subject Matter Expert Evaluation of Multi-Flight Common Route Advisories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bilimoria, Karl; Hayashi, Miwa; Sheth, Kapil S.

2017-01-01

Traffic flow management seeks to balance the demand for National Airspace System (NAS) flight resources, such as airspace and airports, with the available supply. When forecasted weather blocks nominal air traffic routes, traffic managers must re-route affected flights for weather avoidance. Depending on the nature and scope of the weather, traffic managers may use pre-coordinated re-routes such as Playbook Routes or Coded Departure Routes, or may design ad hoc local re-routes. The routes of affected flights are modified accordingly. These weather avoidance routes will, of course, be less efficient than the nominal routes due to increased flight time and fuel burn. In current traffic management operations, the transition into a weather avoidance re-routing initiative is typically implemented more aggressively than the transition out of that initiative after the weather has dissipated or moved away. For example, strategic large-scale Playbook re-routes are sometimes left in place (as initially implemented) for many hours before being lifted entirely when the weather dissipates. There is an opportunity to periodically modify the re-routing plan as weather evolves, thereby attenuating its adverse impact on flight time and fuel consumption; this is called delay recovery. Multi-Flight Common Routes (MFCR) is a NASA-developed operational concept and associated decision support tool for delay recovery, designed to assist traffic managers to efficiently update weather avoidance traffic routes after the original re-routes have become stale due to subsequent evolution of the convective weather system. MFCR groups multiple flights to reduce the number of advisories that the traffic manager needs to evaluate, and also merges these flights on a common route segment to provide an orderly flow of re-routed traffic. The advisory is presented to the appropriate traffic manager who evaluates it and has the option to modify it using MFCRs graphical user interface. If the traffic manager finds the advisory to be operationally appropriate, he or she would coordinate with the Area Supervisor(s) of the sectors that currently control the flights in the advisory. When the traffic manager accepts the MFCR advisory via the user interface, the corresponding flight plan amendments would be sent to the displays of the appropriate sector controllers, using the Airborne Re-Routing (ABRR) capability which is scheduled for nationwide operation in 2017. The sector controllers would then offer this time-saving route modification to the pilots of the affected flights via datalink (or voice), and implement the corresponding flight plan amendment if the pilots accept it. MFCR is implemented as an application in the software environment of the Future Air traffic management Concepts Evaluation Tool (FACET). This paper focuses on an initial subject matter expert (SME) evaluation of MFCR. The evaluation covers MFCRs operational concept, algorithm, and user interface.

Preference for shelter and additional heat in horses exposed to Nordic winter conditions.

PubMed

Jørgensen, G H M; Aanensen, L; Mejdell, C M; Bøe, K E

2016-11-01

Horses may adapt to a wide range of temperatures and weather conditions. Owners often interfere with this natural thermoregulation ability by clipping and use of blankets. To investigate the effects of different winter weather conditions on shelter seeking behaviour of horses and their preference for additional heat. Observational study in various environments. Mature horses (n = 22) were given a free choice test between staying outdoors, going into a heated shelter compartment or into a nonheated shelter compartment. Horse location and behaviour was scored using instantaneous sampling every minute for 1 h. Each horse was tested once per day and weather factors were continuously recorded by a local weather station. The weather conditions influenced time spent outdoors, ranging from 52% (of all observations) on days with mild temperatures, wind and rain to 88% on days with <0°C and dry weather. Shivering was only observed during mild temperatures and rain/sleet. Small Warmblood horses were observed to select outdoors less (34% of all observations) than small Coldblood horses (80%). We found significant correlations between hair coat sample weight and number of observations outdoors (ρ = 0.23; P = 0.004). Horses selected shelters the most on days with precipitation and horses changed from a nonheated compartment to a heated compartment as weather changed from calm and dry to wet and windy. Horse breed category affected the use of shelter and body condition score and hair coat weight were associated with voluntary shelter selection. © 2015 EVJ Ltd.

Tailored high-resolution numerical weather forecasts for energy efficient predictive building control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stauch, V. J.; Gwerder, M.; Gyalistras, D.; Oldewurtel, F.; Schubiger, F.; Steiner, P.

2010-09-01

The high proportion of the total primary energy consumption by buildings has increased the public interest in the optimisation of buildings' operation and is also driving the development of novel control approaches for the indoor climate. In this context, the use of weather forecasts presents an interesting and - thanks to advances in information and predictive control technologies and the continuous improvement of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models - an increasingly attractive option for improved building control. Within the research project OptiControl (www.opticontrol.ethz.ch) predictive control strategies for a wide range of buildings, heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, and representative locations in Europe are being investigated with the aid of newly developed modelling and simulation tools. Grid point predictions for radiation, temperature and humidity of the high-resolution limited area NWP model COSMO-7 (see www.cosmo-model.org) and local measurements are used as disturbances and inputs into the building system. The control task considered consists in minimizing energy consumption whilst maintaining occupant comfort. In this presentation, we use the simulation-based OptiControl methodology to investigate the impact of COSMO-7 forecasts on the performance of predictive building control and the resulting energy savings. For this, we have selected building cases that were shown to benefit from a prediction horizon of up to 3 days and therefore, are particularly suitable for the use of numerical weather forecasts. We show that the controller performance is sensitive to the quality of the weather predictions, most importantly of the incident radiation on differently oriented façades. However, radiation is characterised by a high temporal and spatial variability in part caused by small scale and fast changing cloud formation and dissolution processes being only partially represented in the COSMO-7 grid point predictions. On the other hand, buildings are affected by particularly local weather conditions at the building site. To overcome this discrepancy, we make use of local measurements to statistically adapt the COSMO-7 model output to the meteorological conditions at the building. For this, we have developed a general correction algorithm that exploits systematic properties of the COSMO-7 prediction error and explicitly estimates the degree of temporal autocorrelation using online recursive estimation. The resulting corrected predictions are improved especially for the first few hours being the most crucial for the predictive controller and, ultimately for the reduction of primary energy consumption using predictive control. The use of numerical weather forecasts in predictive building automation is one example in a wide field of weather dependent advanced energy saving technologies. Our work particularly highlights the need for the development of specifically tailored weather forecast products by (statistical) postprocessing in order to meet the requirements of specific applications.

Food Price Volatility and Decadal Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, M. E.

2013-12-01

The agriculture system is under pressure to increase production every year as global population expands and more people move from a diet mostly made up of grains, to one with more meat, dairy and processed foods. Weather shocks and large changes in international commodity prices in the last decade have increased pressure on local food prices. This paper will review several studies that link climate variability as measured with satellite remote sensing to food price dynamics in 36 developing countries where local monthly food price data is available. The focus of the research is to understand how weather and climate, as measured by variations in the growing season using satellite remote sensing, has affected agricultural production, food prices and access to food in agricultural societies. Economies are vulnerable to extreme weather at multiple levels. Subsistence small holders who hold livestock and consume much of the food they produce are vulnerable to food production variability. The broader society, however, is also vulnerable to extreme weather because of the secondary effects on market functioning, resource availability, and large-scale impacts on employment in trading, trucking and wage labor that are caused by weather-related shocks. Food price variability captures many of these broad impacts and can be used to diagnose weather-related vulnerability across multiple sectors. The paper will trace these connections using market-level data and analysis. The context of the analysis is the humanitarian aid community, using the guidance of the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United Nation's World Food Program in their response to food security crises. These organizations have worked over the past three decades to provide baseline information on food production through satellite remote sensing data and agricultural yield models, as well as assessments of food access through a food price database. Econometric models and spatial analysis are used to describe the connection between shocks and food prices, and to demonstrate the importance of these metrics in overall outcomes in food-insecure communities.

Weather on Steroids: The Art of Climate Change Science.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boudrias, M. A.; Gershunov, A.; Sizonenko, T.; Wiese, A.; Fox, H.

2017-12-01

There have been many different kinds of efforts to improve climate change literacy of diverse audiences in the past several years. The challenge has been to balance science content with audience-specific messaging that engages them in both rational and affective ways. In the San Diego Region, Climate Education Partners (CEP) has been working with business leaders, elected officials, tribal leaders, and other community leaders to develop a suite of programs and activities to enhance the channels of communication outside traditional settings. CEP has partnered with the La Jolla Historical Society and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in a unique exhibition of art inspired by climate science, a project blending science and art to communicate the science of climate change in a new way and engage audiences more effectively. Weather on Steroids: the Art of Climate Change Science explores the question of consequences, challenges, and opportunities that arise from the changing climate on our planet. The exhibition merges the artistic and scientific to create a visual dialogue about the vexing problem of climate change, explores how weather variability affects the day-to-day life of local communities, and investigates Southern California vulnerability to climate change. Science serves as the inspiration for the creative responses from visual artists, who merge subjective images with empirical observation to reveal how climate variations upset the planet's balance with extreme weather impacts. Both the scientists and artists created didactic pages to explain their perspectives and each pair worked closely to incorporate the information into the creative piece so that the connection of each of 11 art installations to the science that inspired them is clear. By illuminating the reality of climate change, Weather on Steroids aspires to proactively stimulate public dialogue about one of the most important issues of our time.

Climate change and health in Israel: adaptation policies for extreme weather events

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Climatic changes have increased the world-wide frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, storms and droughts. These extreme events potentially affect the health status of millions of people, increasing disease and death. Since mitigation of climate change is a long and complex process, emphasis has recently been placed on the measures required for adaptation. Although the principles underlying these measures are universal, preparedness plans and policies need to be tailored to local conditions. In this paper, we conducted a review of the literature on the possible health consequences of extreme weather events in Israel, where the conditions are characteristic of the Mediterranean region. Strong evidence indicates that the frequency and duration of several types of extreme weather events are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin, including Israel. We examined the public health policy implications for adaptation to climate change in the region, and proposed public health adaptation policy options. Preparedness for the public health impact of increased extreme weather events is still relatively limited and clear public health policies are urgently needed. These include improved early warning and monitoring systems, preparedness of the health system, educational programs and the living environment. Regional collaboration should be a priority. PMID:23805950

Relationship Between Climate Change Impact, Migration and Socioeconomic Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sann Oo, Kyaw

2016-06-01

Geospatial data are available in raster and vector formats and some of them are available in open data form. The technique and tools to handle those data are also available in open source. Though it is free of charge, the knowledge to utilize those data is limited to non-educated in the specific field. The data and technology should be promoted to those levels to utilize in required fields with priceless in developing countries. Before utilize open data, which are required to verify with local knowledge to become usable information for the local people as priceless data resources. Developing country, which economic is based in agriculture, required more information about precise weather data and weather variation by the climate change impact for their socioeconomic development. This study found that rural to urban migration occurs in the developing countries such agriculture based country likes Myanmar when the agriculture economic are affected by unpredictable impact by the climate change. The knowledge sharing using open data resources to non-educated local people is one of the curable solutions for the agriculture economy development in the country. Moreover, the study will find ways to reduce the rural to urban migration.

Potential impacts on Colorado Rocky Mountain weather due to land use changes on the adjacent Great Plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, T.N.; Pielke, R.A.; Kittel, T.G.F.; Baron, Jill S.; Stohlgren, T.J.

1999-01-01

Evidence from both meteorological stations and vegetational successional studies suggests that summer temperatures are decreasing in the mountain-plain system in northeast Colorado, particularly since the early 1980s. These trends are coincident with large changes in regional land cover. Trends in global, Northern Hemisphere and continental surface temperatures over the same period are insignificant. These observations suggest that changes in the climate of this mountain-plain system may be, in some part, a result of localized forcing mechanisms. In this study the effects of land use change on the northern Colorado plains, where large regions of grasslands have been transformed into both dry and irrigated agricultural lands, on regional weather is examined in an effort to understand this local deviation from larger-scale trends. We find with high-resolution numerical simulations of a 3-day summer period using a regional atmospheric-land surface model that replacing grasslands with irrigated and dry farmland can have impacts on regional weather and therefore climate which are not limited to regions of direct forcing. Higher elevations remote from regions of land use change are affected as well. Specifically, cases with altered landcover had cooler, moister boundary layers, and diminished low-level upslope winds over portions of the plains. At higher elevations, temperatures also were lower as was low-level convergence. Precipitation and cloud cover were substantially affected in mountain regions. We advance the hypothesis that observed land use changes may have already had a role in explaining part of the observed climate record in the northern Colorado mountain-plain system. Copyright 1999 by the American Geophysical Union.

Peatlands as a unique climatic hotspots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slowinska, S.; Marcisz, K.; Slowinski, M. M.; Blazejczyk, K.; Lamentowicz, M.

2017-12-01

Peatlands are unique environments, often acting as microrefugia of various taxa. High groundwater table, organic soils, specific vegetation and topography are important determinants of their local climatic conditions. However, relations between those determinants are not stable. For example, seasonal changes in weather patterns, hydrological dynamics, and local vegetation may alter microclimate. Additionally, long-term changes are important factor, as for example overgrowing due to significant change of microclimate conditions, what in turn changes geochemical and biological processes in the peat layer. We have been investigating interactions between abiotic and biotic factors of a small Sphagnum mire (ca. 6.0 ha) for over ten years now. The mire is located in Poland in transitional temperate climate and is the only place in polish lowlands where glacial relict Betula nana occurs. Identification of local climate of the mire, its microclimatic differentiation and its influence on surroundings were objectives of the study. We recorded water level fluctuations, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), air temperature and humidity, and peat temperature at five monitoring plots at the mire and observed significant differences between them. We also investigated Sphagnum mosses growth and testate amoeba diversity and community structure to understand biological response of those differences. We observed that local climate of the mire was significantly different from open area reference place, it was much colder especially during nights. The average minimal temperature at the height 30 cm for growing seasons 2010-2012 was 3.7oC lower there and ground frosts occurred even in the summer. The climate of the mire affected the forest directly adjacent to it, and depending on weather conditions the strength and the distance of this interaction was different. Our results show that micro-environmental changes affects on biological processes and should be taken into consideration in palaeoecological investigations.

TV Weathercasters as Climate Educators: Rationale, Evidence for Effectiveness, and Potential for Nationwide Scale-Up. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maibach, E.; Cullen, H. M.; Witte, J.

2013-12-01

Climate change is influencing every region of the nation through weather and climatic events including heat waves, droughts, extreme precipitation and floods, more intense hurricanes, and forest fires, yet most Americans continue to perceive climate change as a problem distant in time (with impacts a generation or more away), and in space (that will primarily affect other countries, not the United States). This may be caused, in part, due to the fact that climate change is often described in global, abstract, and analytical terms that are hard for people to connect to their own lives. The impacts of climate change, however, can be personally experienced at the local level, including through unusual weather events; cognitive science has shown that the human brain is more adept at learning through personal experience than through analytical reasoning. In this paper we will describe our efforts to enable America's TV weathercasters to embrace the role of climate educator. Weathercasters are a relatively small cohort of highly skilled communication professionals who are optimally positioned to reach a large majority of the American public, and help move their viewers beyond an abstract (distant) notion of global climate change and toward an understanding of climate change that is both local and concrete. Approximately 70% of American adults watch local TV news, and their primary reason for doing so is to learn about the weather. Our research has shown that TV weathercasters are second only to scientists and government science agencies as trusted sources of information about climate change. Our surveys have also shown that - in every region of the country - many TV weathercasters are willing to embrace the role of climate educator, if certain barriers can be overcome. Our experimental pilot-test - in Columbia, South Carolina - of a model developed to help overcome those barriers demonstrated that: when TV weathercasters make an effort to educate their viewers about the local ramifications of climate change, their viewers learn. Our current attempts to scale-up the model on a limited basis - in one state as a field experiment, and elsewhere around the nation on an uncontrolled basis - are showing promise in terms of attracting an increasing numbers of participating weathercasters. Lastly, professional associations that represent TV weathercasters (AMS and NWA), and government agencies that produce climate and weather data for meteorologists (NOAA and NASA), are committed to help scale up this model so that all interested TV weathercasters have easy access to localized information through which to educate their viewers about local weather and related implications of climate change. In sum, by engaging and empowering TV weathercasters as climate educators, we seek to increase public understanding of the relationships among climate, climate variability, climate change, weather extremes and community vulnerability, and we believe this model has considerable potential.

Scatterometer capabilities in remotely sensing geophysical parameters over the ocean: The status and the possibilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, R. A.

1984-01-01

Extensive comparison between surface measurements and satellite Scatt signal and predicted winds show successful wind and weather analysis comparable with conventional weather service analyses. However, in regions often of the most interest, e.g., fronts and local storms, inadequacies in the latter fields leaves an inability to establish the satellite sensor capabilities. Thus, comparisons must be made between wind detecting measurements and other satellite measurements of clouds, moisture, waves or any other parameter which responds to sharp gradients in the wind. At least for the windfields and the derived surface pressure field analysis, occasional surface measurements are required to anchor and monitor the satellite analyses. Their averaging times must be made compatible with the satellite sensor measurement. Careful attention must be paid to the complex fields which contain many scales of turbulence and coherent structures affecting the averaging process. The satellite microwave system is capable of replacing the conventional point observation/numerical analysis for the ocean weather.

Predators determine how weather affects the spatial niche of lizard prey: exploring niche dynamics at a fine scale.

PubMed

Lopez-Darias, Marta; Schoener, Thomas W; Spiller, David A; Losos, Jonathan B

2012-12-01

Although abiotic and biotic factors can interact to shape the spatial niche of a species, studies that explore the interactive effects of both at a local scale are rare. We demonstrate that one of the main axes (perch height) characterizing the spatial niche of a common lizard, Anolis sagrei, varies according to the interactive effects of weather and the activity of a larger predatory lizard, Leiocephalus carinatus. Results were completely consistent: no matter how favorable the weather conditions for using the ground (mainly characterized by temperature, humidity, wind speed, rain), A. sagrei did not do so if the predator was present. Hence, great behavioral plasticity enabled A. sagrei to adjust its use of space very quickly. To the best of our knowledge, these results constitute the first field demonstration for anoles (and possibly for other animals as well) of how time-varying environmental conditions and predator presence interact to produce short-term changes in utilization along a major niche axis.

Dynamically Evolving Sectors for Convective Weather Impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drew, Michael C.

2010-01-01

A new strategy for altering existing sector boundaries in response to blocking convective weather is presented. This method seeks to improve the reduced capacity of sectors directly affected by weather by moving boundaries in a direction that offers the greatest capacity improvement. The boundary deformations are shared by neighboring sectors within the region in a manner that preserves their shapes and sizes as much as possible. This reduces the controller workload involved with learning new sector designs. The algorithm that produces the altered sectors is based on a force-deflection mesh model that needs only nominal traffic patterns and the shape of the blocking weather for input. It does not require weather-affected traffic patterns that would have to be predicted by simulation. When compared to an existing optimal sector design method, the sectors produced by the new algorithm are more similar to the original sector shapes, resulting in sectors that may be more suitable for operational use because the change is not as drastic. Also, preliminary results show that this method produces sectors that can equitably distribute the workload of rerouted weather-affected traffic throughout the region where inclement weather is present. This is demonstrated by sector aircraft count distributions of simulated traffic in weather-affected regions.

Space Weather: What is it, and Why Should a Meteorologist Care?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

SaintCyr, Chris; Murtagh, Bill

2008-01-01

"Space weather" is a term coined almost 15 years ago to describe environmental conditions ABOVE Earth's atmosphere that affect satellites and astronauts. As society has become more dependent on technology, we nave found that space weather conditions increasingly affect numerous commercial and infrastructure sectors: airline operations, the precision positioning industry, and the electric power grid, to name a few. Similar to meteorology where "weather" often refers to severe conditions, "space weather" includes geomagnetic storms, radiation storms, and radio blackouts. But almost all space weather conditions begin at the Sun--our middle-age, magnetically-variable star. At NASA, the science behind space weather takes place in the Heliophysics Division. The Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado, is manned jointly by NCAA and US Air Force personnel, and it provides space weather alerts and warnings for disturbances that can affect people and equipment working in space and on Earth. Organizationally, it resides in NOAA's National Weather Service as one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. In this seminar we hope to give the audience a brief introduction to the causes of space weather, discuss some of the effects, and describe the state of the art in forecasting. Our goal is to highlight that meteorologists are increasingly becoming the "first responders" to questions about space weather causes and effects.

Surface Temperature Variation Prediction Model Using Real-Time Weather Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karimi, M.; Vant-Hull, B.; Nazari, R.; Khanbilvardi, R.

2015-12-01

Combination of climate change and urbanization are heating up cities and putting the lives of millions of people in danger. More than half of the world's total population resides in cities and urban centers. Cities are experiencing urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. Hotter days are associated with serious health impacts, heart attaches and respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Densely populated cities like Manhattan, New York can be affected by UHI impact much more than less populated cities. Even though many studies have been focused on the impact of UHI and temperature changes between urban and rural air temperature, not many look at the temperature variations within a city. These studies mostly use remote sensing data or typical measurements collected by local meteorological station networks. Local meteorological measurements only have local coverage and cannot be used to study the impact of UHI in a city and remote sensing data such as MODIS, LANDSAT and ASTER have with very low resolution which cannot be used for the purpose of this study. Therefore, predicting surface temperature in urban cities using weather data can be useful.Three months of Field campaign in Manhattan were used to measure spatial and temporal temperature variations within an urban setting by placing 10 fixed sensors deployed to measure temperature, relative humidity and sunlight. Fixed instrument shelters containing relative humidity, temperature and illumination sensors were mounted on lampposts in ten different locations in Manhattan (Vant-Hull et al, 2014). The shelters were fixed 3-4 meters above the ground for the period of three months from June 23 to September 20th of 2013 making measurements with the interval of 3 minutes. These high resolution temperature measurements and three months of weather data were used to predict temperature variability from weather forecasts. This study shows that the amplitude of spatial and temporal variation in temperature for each day can be predicted by regression of weather variables. In addition amplitude of spatial variations were most dependent on temperature, north winds, and high level lapse rate and the temporal variations were most dependent on temperature and lapse rates.

North American Observing Systems: An Interagency Group Runs Tests at the NCCS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

Some 250,000 weather reports are collected by the National Weather Service (NWS) every day. Important measurements are taken by satellites, weather balloons, ground weather stations, airplanes, oceangoing ships, and tethered ocean buoys. Local or global weather models rely on these reports to provide the raw data used as initial conditions for the models to produce a weather prediction.

UTM Weather Presentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chan, William N.; Kopardekar, Parimal H.; Carmichael, Bruce; Cornman, Larry

2017-01-01

Presentation highlighting how weather affected UAS operations during the UTM field tests. Research to develop UAS weather translation models with a description of current and future work for UTM weather.

Effects of Video Weather Training Products, Web-Based Preflight Weather Briefing, and Local Versus Non-Local Pilots on General Aviation Pilot Weather Knowledge and Flight Behavior. Phase 1

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

Seemingly not . Repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) for posttest - pretest score gain x training product interaction yielded a non-significant...Code 15. Supplemental Notes Work was accomplished under approved task AM-A-07-HRR-521 16. Abstract This research has two main...1 Purpose of This Research

Local Infrasound Variability Related to In Situ Atmospheric Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Keehoon; Rodgers, Arthur; Seastrand, Douglas

2018-04-01

Local infrasound is widely used to constrain source parameters of near-surface events (e.g., chemical explosions and volcanic eruptions). While atmospheric conditions are critical to infrasound propagation and source parameter inversion, local atmospheric variability is often ignored by assuming homogeneous atmospheres, and their impact on the source inversion uncertainty has never been accounted for due to the lack of quantitative understanding of infrasound variability. We investigate atmospheric impacts on local infrasound propagation by repeated explosion experiments with a dense acoustic network and in situ atmospheric measurement. We perform full 3-D waveform simulations with local atmospheric data and numerical weather forecast model to quantify atmosphere-dependent infrasound variability and address the advantage and restriction of local weather data/numerical weather model for sound propagation simulation. Numerical simulations with stochastic atmosphere models also showed nonnegligible influence of atmospheric heterogeneity on infrasound amplitude, suggesting an important role of local turbulence.

Investigations On Limestone Weathering Of El-Tuba Minaret El Mehalla, Egypt: A Case Study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Gohary; A, M.

The weathering phenomena that have affected El-TUBA Minaret, one of the most important Islamic stone minarets in middle delta in Egypt; that has suffered from several factors of deterioration due to weathering phenomenon. The present investigations concern the weathering factors that may have affected the minaret via the following methods and techniques: a) Contact-free methods used to study the chemical and mineralogical composition of building materials before and after weathering effects such as SEM-EDX and XRD, b) Non-destructive methods to find out percentage of range of decay which has affected these materials as well as the deteriorating roles of the surrounding environment. This method has been used to make an anatomical scheme of these features especially to specific deteriorated parts by GIS and other digital imaging techniques. All results confirm that the degradation factors affecting the minaret building materials are essentially attributed to direct effects of weathering phenomena. These weathering phenomena arise from physical and chemical mechanisms which have lead to many deterioration forms on the following two scales: a) Macro scale of weathering phenomena (e.g. structural damages, crakes, loss of plumb and walls bulging), b) Micro scale of weathering phenomena (e.g. hydrated salts, bursting, flaking, coloration, scaling, skinning, exfoliation and soiling). Discussion on the management and rehabilitation of this monument is made, since it is one of the religious shrines in Egypt.

Detecting Anthropogenic Disturbance on Weathering and Erosion Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanacker, V.; Schoonejans, J.; Bellin, N.; Ameijeiras-Mariño, Y.; Opfergelt, S.; Christl, M.

2014-12-01

Anthropogenic disturbance of natural vegetation can profoundly alter the physical, chemical and biological processes within soils. Rapid removal of topsoil during intense farming can result in an imbalance between soil production through chemical weathering and physical erosion, with direct implications on local biogeochemical cycling. However, the feedback mechanisms between soil erosion, chemical weathering and biogeochemical cycling in response to anthropogenic forcing are not yet fully understood. In this paper, we analyze dynamic soil properties for a rapidly changing anthropogenic landscape in the Spanish Betic Cordillera; and focus on the coupling between physical erosion, soil production and soil chemical weathering. Modern erosion rates were quantified through analysis of sediment deposition volumes behind check dams, and represent catchment-average erosion rates over the last 10 to 50 years. Soil production rates are derived from in-situ produced 10Be nuclide concentrations, and represent long-term flux rates. In each catchment, soil chemical weathering intensities were calculated for two soil-regolith profiles. Although Southeast Spain is commonly reported as the European region that is most affected by land degradation, modern erosion rates are low (140 t ha-1 yr-1). About 50 % of the catchments are losing soils at a rate of less than 60 t km-2 yr-1. Our data show that modern erosion rates are roughly of the same magnitude as the long-term or cosmogenically-derived erosion rates in the Betic Cordillera. Soils developed on weathered metamorphic rocks have no well-developed profile characteristics, and are generally thin and stony. Nevertheless, soil chemical weathering intensities are high; and question the occurrence of past soil truncation.

The waviness of the extratropical jet and daily weather extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Röthlisberger, Matthias; Martius, Olivia; Pfahl, Stephan

2016-04-01

In recent years the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes have experienced a large number of weather extremes with substantial socio-economic impact, such as the European and Russian heat waves in 2003 and 2010, severe winter floods in the United Kingdom in 2013/2014 and devastating winter storms such as Lothar (1999) and Xynthia (2010) in Central Europe. These have triggered an engaged debate within the scientific community on the role of human induced climate change in the occurrence of such extremes. A key element of this debate is the hypothesis that the waviness of the extratropical jet is linked to the occurrence of weather extremes, with a wavier jet stream favouring more extremes. Previous work on this topic is expanded in this study by analyzing the linkage between a regional measure of jet waviness and daily temperature, precipitation and wind gust extremes. We show that indeed such a linkage exists in many regions of the world, however this waviness-extremes linkage varies spatially in strength and sign. Locally, it is strong only where the relevant weather systems, in which the extremes occur, are affected by the jet waviness. Its sign depends on how the frequency of occurrence of the relevant weather systems is correlated with the occurrence of high and low jet waviness. These results go beyond previous studies by noting that also a decrease in waviness could be associated with an enhanced number of some weather extremes, especially wind gust and precipitation extremes over western Europe.

Orogen and long-term carbon cycle, what numerical modelling can tell us about their interactions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maffre, P.; Godderis, Y.; Carretier, S.; Ladant, J. B.; Moquet, J. S.; Donnadieu, Y.

2017-12-01

If the uplift of current mountain ranges is often cited as a possible cause for Cenozoic cooling and the onset of the quaternary glaciation, this hypothesis is highly discussed. The main reason is that mountain uplift has a wide range of consequences, turning on or of sources or sinks of CO2. Most of these CO2 fluxes are still poorly constrained. Indeed, high erosion rates of mountain ranges increase silicate weathering by increasing fresh material supply (Goddéris et al. 2017) and enhance organic matter burial throughout intense sediment discharge by rivers (Galy et al. 2007). Yet, the effect of fresh matter supply by erosion is different if it happens on a weathering-limited or a supply-limited place (West 2012), and as eroded clasts are often weathered in pediments or floodplains (Moquet et al 2011, Lupker et al. 2012), it makes the issue more complex. Moreover, mountain ranges dramatically alter local and global climatic pattern by affecting atmospheric and oceanic circulation (Maffre et al. 2017), which must have consequences on weathering efficiency. Finally, it has been shown that the CO2 source due to sulphur oxidation can locally exceed the CO2 sink associated to silicate weathering (Torres et al. 2016) and may be relevant at geological timescale (Torres et al. 2014). Our aim here is to investigate theses processes in a global model in order to quantify their relative importance. We used the spatially resolved numerical model GEOCLIM (geoclimmodel.worpress.com) to test the effect of orography on CO2 fluxes with present-day continent configuration. We designed for that purpose two experiments, with and without orography, everything else kept as present-day state. Preliminary results show antagonist effects of mountain ranges. While erosion acts to enhance weathering efficiency when mountains are built, dryer and cooler conditions triggered by reorganization of ocean-atmosphere circulation act to reduce it. A first quantification using weathering data to constraint the model gives a probable range of 30% less to 100% more weathering with mountains (at constant CO2), depending on the sensitivity to the model to climate pattern or erosion. The uncertainty is primarily due to the lack of data.

Corn response to nitrogen is influenced by soil texture and weather

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil properties and weather conditions are known to affect soil nitrogen (N) availability and plant N uptake. However, studies examining N response as affected by soil and weather sometimes give conflicting results. Meta-analysis is a statistical method for estimating treatment effects in a se...

Decision Aids for Multiple-Decision Disease Management as Affected by Weather Input Errors

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Many disease management decision support systems (DSS) rely, exclusively or in part, on weather inputs to calculate an indicator for disease hazard. Error in the weather inputs, typically due to forecasting, interpolation or estimation from off-site sources, may affect model calculations and manage...

NOAA's weather forecasts go hyper-local with next-generation weather

Science.gov Websites

model NOAA HOME WEATHER OCEANS FISHERIES CHARTING SATELLITES CLIMATE RESEARCH COASTS CAREERS with next-generation weather model New model will help forecasters predict a storm's path, timing and intensity better than ever September 30, 2014 This is a comparison of two weather forecast models looking

Weathering steel as a potential source for metal contamination: Metal dissolution during 3-year of field exposure in a urban coastal site.

PubMed

Raffo, Simona; Vassura, Ivano; Chiavari, Cristina; Martini, Carla; Bignozzi, Maria C; Passarini, Fabrizio; Bernardi, Elena

2016-06-01

Surface and building runoff can significantly contribute to the total metal loading in urban runoff waters, with potential adverse effects on the receiving ecosystems. The present paper analyses the corrosion-induced metal dissolution (Fe, Mn, Cr, Ni, Cu) from weathering steel (Cor-Ten A) with or without artificial patinas, exposed for 3 years in unsheltered conditions at a marine urban site (Rimini, Italy). The influence of environmental parameters, atmospheric pollutants and surface finish on the release of dissolved metals in rain was evaluated, also by means of multivariate analysis (two-way and three-way Principal Component Analysis). In addition, surface and cross-section investigations were performed so as to monitor the patina evolution. The contribution provided by weathering steel runoff to the dissolved Fe, Mn and Ni loading at local level is not negligible and pre-patination treatments seem to worsen the performance of weathering steel in term of metal release. Metal dissolution is strongly affected by extreme events and shows seasonal variations, with different influence of seasonal parameters on the behaviour of bare or artificially patinated steel, suggesting that climate changes could significantly influence metal release from this alloy. Therefore, it is essential to perform a long-term monitoring of the performance, the durability and the environmental impact of weathering steel. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chemical weathering as a mechanism for the climatic control of bedrock river incision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Brendan P.; Johnson, Joel P. L.; Gasparini, Nicole M.; Sklar, Leonard S.

2016-04-01

Feedbacks between climate, erosion and tectonics influence the rates of chemical weathering reactions, which can consume atmospheric CO2 and modulate global climate. However, quantitative predictions for the coupling of these feedbacks are limited because the specific mechanisms by which climate controls erosion are poorly understood. Here we show that climate-dependent chemical weathering controls the erodibility of bedrock-floored rivers across a rainfall gradient on the Big Island of Hawai‘i. Field data demonstrate that the physical strength of bedrock in streambeds varies with the degree of chemical weathering, which increases systematically with local rainfall rate. We find that incorporating the quantified relationships between local rainfall and erodibility into a commonly used river incision model is necessary to predict the rates and patterns of downcutting of these rivers. In contrast to using only precipitation-dependent river discharge to explain the climatic control of bedrock river incision, the mechanism of chemical weathering can explain strong coupling between local climate and river incision.

A Meta-Analysis quantifying the relationships between response to nitrogen fertilization vs soil texture and weather

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Weather and soil properties are known to affect soil nitrogen (N) availability and plant N uptake. Studies examining N response as affected by soil and weather sometimes give conflicting results. Meta-analysis is a statistical method for estimating treatment effects in a series of experiments...

Coastal storm monitoring in Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wicklein, Shaun M.; Bennett, Mark

2014-01-01

Coastal communities in Virginia are prone to flooding, particularly during hurricanes, nor’easters, and other coastal low-pressure systems. These weather systems affect public safety, personal and public property, and valuable infrastructure, such as transportation, water and sewer, and electric-supply networks. Local emergency managers, utility operators, and the public are tasked with making difficult decisions regarding evacuations, road closures, and post-storm recovery efforts as a result of coastal flooding. In coastal Virginia these decisions often are made on the basis of anecdotal knowledge from past events or predictions based on data from monitoring sites located far away from the affected area that may not reflect local conditions. Preventing flood hazards, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, from becoming human disasters requires an understanding of the relative risks that flooding poses to specific communities. The risk to life and property can be very high if decisions about evacuations and road closures are made too late or not at all.

Local weather conditions have complex effects on the growth of blue tit nestlings.

PubMed

Mainwaring, Mark C; Hartley, Ian R

2016-08-01

Adverse weather conditions are expected to result in impaired nestling development in birds, but empirical studies have provided equivocal support for such a relationship. This may be because the negative effects of adverse weather conditions are masked by parental effects. Globally, ambient temperatures, rainfall levels and wind speeds are all expected to increase in a changing climate and so there is a need for a better understanding of the relationship between weather conditions and nestling growth. Here, we describe a correlative study that examined the relationships between local temperatures, rainfall levels and wind speeds and the growth of individual blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) nestlings in relation to their hatching order and sex. We found that changes in a range of morphological characters were negatively related to both temperature and wind speed, but positively related to rainfall. These patterns were further influenced by the hatching order of the nestlings but not by nestling sex. This suggests that the predicted changes in local weather conditions may have complex effects on nestling growth, but that parents may be able to mitigate the adverse effects via adaptive parental effects. We therefore conclude that local weather conditions have complex effects on avian growth and the implications for patterns of avian growth in a changing climate are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Providing the Larger Climate Context During Extreme Weather - Lessons from Local Television News

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, M.; Cullen, H. M.

2015-12-01

Local television weathercasters, in their role as Station Scientists, are often called upon to educate viewers about the science and impacts of climate change. Climate Central supports these efforts through its Climate Matters program. Launched in 2010 with support from the National Science Foundation, the program has grown into a network that includes more than 245 weathercasters from across the country and provides localized information on climate and ready-to-use, broadcast quality graphics and analyses in both English and Spanish. This presentation will focus on discussing best practices for integrating climate science into the local weather forecast as well as advances in the science of extreme event attribution. The Chief Meteorologist at News10 (Sacramento, CA) will discuss local news coverage of the ongoing California drought, extreme weather and climate literacy.

Objective local weather types with applications on urban air pollution and on mortality with chronicle illnesses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mika, Janos; Ivady, Anett; Fulop, Andrea; Makra, László

2010-05-01

Synoptic climatology i.e. classification of the endless variability of the everyday weather states according to the pressure configuration and frontal systems relative to the point, or region of interest has long history in meteorology. Its logical alternative, i.e. classification of weather according to the observed local weather elements was less popular until the recent times when the numerical weather forecasts became able to outline not only the synoptic situation, but the near-surface meteorological variables, as well. Nowadays the computer-based statistical facilities are able to operate with matrices of multivariate diurnal samples, as well. The paper presents an attempt to define a set of local weather types using point-wise series at five rural stations, Szombathely, Pécs, Budapest, Szeged és Debrecen in the 1961-1990 reference period. Ten local variables are used, i.e. the diurnal mean temperature, the diurnal temperature range; the cloudiness, the sunshine duration, the water vapour pressure, the precipitation in a logarithmic scale, also differing trace (below 0.1 mm) and no precipitation, the relative humidity and wind speed, including the more extremity indicators of the two latter parameters, i.e. number of hours with over 80 % relative humidity and over 15 m/s wind gusts. Factor analysis of these ten variables was performed leading to 5 fairly independent variables retained for cluster analysis to obtain the local weather types. Hierarchical cluster analysis was performed to classify the 840-930 days within each month of the 30 years period. Furthers neighbour approach was preferred based on Euclidean metrics to establish optimum number of types. The 12 months and the 5 stations exhibited slightly different results but the optimum number of the types was always between 4 and 12 which is a quite reasonable number from practical considerations. According to a further reasonable compromise, the common number of the types not too bad in either stations or months defines that the common optimum number of local weather types is nine. This set of weather types, specified for each station, was used to "explain" the possible portion of local inter-diurnal variance of seven daily urban air quality measurements, i.e. CO, NO, NO2, NOx, O3, SO2 and PM10. Another set of data for testing the types are the mortalities with chronicle illnesses, i.e. cardio-vascular and respiratory illnesses. This set of 35 years data (1971-2005) is layered for capital city (Budapest, 2 million inhabitants) and rest of the countries (max. 200 000 inhab.). The use of complex weather types is likely better than the common use of individual weather elements, e.g. diurnal mean temperature or a kind of bioclimatic index. The ability of the types to decrease the variability is also compared for both sets of target variables to the analogous ability of macrosynoptic classification by Peczely. The results are also discussed by grouping the investigated contaminants according to their origin.

Guidelines for deploying connected vehicle-enabled weather responsive traffic management strategies.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-11-01

State and local Departments of Transportation (DOTs) are interested in providing effective traffic management and operations strategies to mitigate the roadway mobility and safety problems due to adverse weather. Weather Responsive Traffic Management...

Vulnerability and adaptation to severe weather events in the American southwest

DOE PAGES

Boero, Riccardo; Bianchini, Laura; Pasqualini, Donatella

2015-05-04

Climate change can induce changes in the frequency of severe weather events representing a threat to socio-economic development. It is thus of uttermost importance to understand how the vulnerability to the weather of local communities is determined and how adaptation public policies can be effectively put in place. We focused our empirical analysis on the American Southwest. Results show that, consistently with the predictions of an investment model, economic characteristics signaling local economic growth in the near future decrease the level of vulnerability. We also show that federal governments transfers and grants neither work to support recovery from and adaptationmore » to weather events nor to distribute their costs over a broader tax base. Finally, we show that communities relying on municipal bonds to finance adaptation and recovery policies can benefit from local acknowledgment of the need for such policies and that they do not have to pay lenders a premium for the risk induced by weather events. In conclusion, our findings suggest that determinants of economic growth support lower vulnerability to the weather and increase options for financing adaptation and recovery policies, but also that only some communities are likely to benefit from those processes.« less

Vulnerability and adaptation to severe weather events in the American southwest

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boero, Riccardo; Bianchini, Laura; Pasqualini, Donatella

Climate change can induce changes in the frequency of severe weather events representing a threat to socio-economic development. It is thus of uttermost importance to understand how the vulnerability to the weather of local communities is determined and how adaptation public policies can be effectively put in place. We focused our empirical analysis on the American Southwest. Results show that, consistently with the predictions of an investment model, economic characteristics signaling local economic growth in the near future decrease the level of vulnerability. We also show that federal governments transfers and grants neither work to support recovery from and adaptationmore » to weather events nor to distribute their costs over a broader tax base. Finally, we show that communities relying on municipal bonds to finance adaptation and recovery policies can benefit from local acknowledgment of the need for such policies and that they do not have to pay lenders a premium for the risk induced by weather events. In conclusion, our findings suggest that determinants of economic growth support lower vulnerability to the weather and increase options for financing adaptation and recovery policies, but also that only some communities are likely to benefit from those processes.« less

Adjustment of corn nitrogen in-season fertilization based on soil texture and weather conditions: a Meta-analysis of North American trials

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil properties and weather conditions are known to affect soil nitrogen (N) availability and plant N uptake. However, studies examining N response as affected by soil and weather sometimes give conflicting results. Meta-analysis is a statistical method for estimating treatment effects in a series o...

Science 101: Does the Weather Affect Your Body?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robertson, Bill

2017-01-01

Everyone has an aunt or grandfather or other relative who can tell when the weather is changing because his or her joints start to ache or an old injury begins to hurt. This column provides background science information for elementary teachers. This month's issue focuses on three major weather factors and how they affect the human…

Public Affairs - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

Publications Contact Us USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services. Top Story NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season In its ... Weather Favorites Finding Past Weather Alphabetical listing of NOAA's most sought after weather Web sites

Impact of landsliding on chemical weathering in the volcanic island of Reunion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gayer, E.; Lucas, A.; Bouchez, J.; Sy, A.; Louvat, P.; Gaillardet, J.; Dosseto, A.; Kuessner, M.; Michon, L.; Yokochi, R.

2017-12-01

Tropical precipitation regimes allow for strong erosion that creates dramatic landscapes. Understanding and quantifying erosion processes in tropical volcanic islands is important for both scientific challenges (e.g. regarding their implications for global biogeochemical cycles and their links with climate) and societal matters (e.g. socio-economic and ecosystem damages in highly populated areas). Despite the fact that the link between chemical weathering and physical erosion has long been studied, most research has focused on active mountain ranges. Here we use Reunion Island as a natural laboratory to explore this link in a tectonically inactive environment.In Reunion, estimates show that intense erosion rates are mainly due to stochastic bedrock landsliding. Although landslides affect only a small portion of the landscape they supply rivers with huge amounts of fresh broken rocks and organic matter, which are then available for chemical alteration and for transport. In this study, we measured water chemistry of several streams in Reunion and of landslide seepage water sampled on 2 majors landslides ("Grand Éboulis" and "Mahavel", both > 50 yrs old). Seepage samples from Grand Éboulis show high Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) compared to local streams, in agreement with previous observations showing that landslides promote chemical weathering [1]. However, the low TDS of the Mahavel seep water samples compared to local streams, suggest that the impact of landslides on weathering fluxes may strongly depend on the rate at which landslide debris are transferred downstream and their subsequent residence time in the catchment. In order to calculate such sediment transfer rates in Mahavel, we developed an automated photogrammetric workflow allowing for deriving Digital Elevation Models from historical aerial photos. Using the 30 years of images archived at the Institut Geographique National (5 campaigns), we will be able to delineate the extent of landslide debris, to estimate volumes of the released mass, and to calculate rates of displacement downstream the Mahavel landslide. This tool will allow us to address the potential kinetic limitation of landslide-promoted weathering. [1] Emberson et al. Chemical weathering in active mountain belts controlled by stochastic bedrock landsliding, Nat. Geo. 2015

Development and Implementation of Dynamic Scripts to Support Local Model Verification at National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavordsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan L.; Gotway, John H.; White, Kristopher; Medlin, Jeffrey; Wood, Lance; Radell, Dave

2014-01-01

Local modeling with a customized configuration is conducted at National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) to produce high-resolution numerical forecasts that can better simulate local weather phenomena and complement larger scale global and regional models. The advent of the Environmental Modeling System (EMS), which provides a pre-compiled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and wrapper Perl scripts, has enabled forecasters to easily configure and execute the WRF model on local workstations. NWS WFOs often use EMS output to help in forecasting highly localized, mesoscale features such as convective initiation, the timing and inland extent of lake effect snow bands, lake and sea breezes, and topographically-modified winds. However, quantitatively evaluating model performance to determine errors and biases still proves to be one of the challenges in running a local model. Developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification software makes performing these types of quantitative analyses easier, but operational forecasters do not generally have time to familiarize themselves with navigating the sometimes complex configurations associated with the MET tools. To assist forecasters in running a subset of MET programs and capabilities, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed and transitioned a set of dynamic, easily configurable Perl scripts to collaborating NWS WFOs. The objective of these scripts is to provide SPoRT collaborating partners in the NWS with the ability to evaluate the skill of their local EMS model runs in near real time with little prior knowledge of the MET package. The ultimate goal is to make these verification scripts available to the broader NWS community in a future version of the EMS software. This paper provides an overview of the SPoRT MET scripts, instructions for how the scripts are run, and example use cases.

On possible influence of space weather on agricultural markets: Necessary conditions and probable scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pustil'nik, L.; Yom Din, G.

2013-01-01

We present the results of study of a possible relationship between the space weather and terrestrial markets of agricultural products. It is shown that to implement the possible effect of space weather on the terrestrial harvests and prices, a simultaneous fulfillment of three conditions is required: 1) sensitivity of local weather (cloud cover, atmospheric circulation) to the state of space weather; 2) sensitivity of the area-specific agricultural crops to the weather anomalies (belonging to the area of risk farming); 3) relative isolation of the market, making it difficult to damp the price hikes by the external food supplies. Four possible scenarios of the market response to the modulations of local terrestrial weather via the solar activity are described. The data sources and analysismethods applied to detect this relationship are characterized. We describe the behavior of 22 European markets during the medieval period, in particular, during the Maunder minimum (1650-1715). We demonstrate a reliable manifestation of the influence of space weather on prices, discovered in the statistics of intervals between the price hikes and phase price asymmetry. We show that the effects of phase price asymmetry persist even during the early modern period in the U.S. in the production of the durum wheat. Within the proposed approach, we analyze the statistics of depopulation in the eighteenth and nineteenth century Iceland, induced by the famine due to a sharp livestock reduction owing to, in its turn, the lack of foodstuff due to the local weather anomalies. A high statistical significance of temporal matching of these events with the periods of extreme solar activity is demonstrated. We discuss the possible consequences of the observed global climate change in the formation of new areas of risk farming, sensitive to space weather.

Effects of Video Weather Training Products, Web-Based Preflight Weather Briefing, and Local Versus Non-Local Pilots on General Aviation Pilot Weather Knowledge and Flight Behavior. Phase 2

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-01

homa pilots are representative of u.S. pilots in general. Presumably, they are similar but, so far, this has not been directly investigated. Since...1 Training Product 2 Control Combined group n Age FH % IR n Age FH % IR n Age FH % IR N Age FH % IR Phase 1 16 39 280 53 16 38 235.5 47 18 42 262.5 50 50

National Weatherization Assistance Program Impact Evaluation - Client Satisfaction Survey: WAP Service Delivery from the Client's Perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, Carolyn; Carroll, David; Berger, Jacqueline

This report presents the results of a survey of recipients to measure satisfaction with services provided by local weatherization agencies being supported by funding from Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program.

Central Region Headquarters

Science.gov Websites

local climate science or impacts, please contact the National Weather Service office in your area. link impacts everyone. How warm is a typical June across the Midwest? What is the average snowfall in January local climate science or impacts, contact the National Weather Service Office in your area. State

North Europe power transmission system vulnerability during extreme space weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piccinelli, Roberta; Krausmann, Elisabeth

2018-01-01

Space weather driven by solar activity can induce geomagnetic disturbances at the Earth's surface that can affect power transmission systems. Variations in the geomagnetic field result in geomagnetically induced currents that can enter the system through its grounding connections, saturate transformers and lead to system instability and possibly collapse. This study analyzes the impact of extreme space weather on the northern part of the European power transmission grid for different transformer designs to understand its vulnerability in case of an extreme event. The behavior of the system was analyzed in its operational mode during a severe geomagnetic storm, and mitigation measures, like line compensation, were also considered. These measures change the topology of the system, thus varying the path of geomagnetically induced currents and inducing a local imbalance in the voltage stability superimposed on the grid operational flow. Our analysis shows that the North European power transmission system is fairly robust against extreme space weather events. When considering transformers more vulnerable to geomagnetic storms, only few episodes of instability were found in correspondence with an existing voltage instability due to the underlying system load. The presence of mitigation measures limited the areas of the network in which bus voltage instabilities arise with respect to the system in which mitigation measures are absent.

The Planeterrella: an Analog Model for Teaching About the Invisible Electromagnetic Processes Driving Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masongsong, E. V.; Glesener, G. B.; Angelopoulos, V.; Lilensten, J.; Bingley, L.

2015-12-01

The Planeterrella can be used as an analog to help students visualize and understand the electromagnetic processes driving space weather that affect our daily lives. Solar storms and solar wind charged particles (plasma) cause "space weather" via their interaction with Earth's protective magnetic shield, the magnetosphere. The Planeterrella uses magnetized spheres in a vacuum chamber to demonstrate solar wind energy transfer to Earth and planets, with polar localization of aurora due to charged particles traveling along geomagnetic field lines. The Planeterrella provides a unique opportunity to experience and manipulate plasma, the dominant form of matter in our universe, yet seldom observable on Earth. Severe space weather events produce spectacular auroral displays as well as devastating consequences: radiation exposure to air and space travelers, prolonged radio blackouts, and damage to critical GPS and communications satellites. We will (1) discuss ways in which the Planeterrella may be most useful in classroom settings, including large lecture halls, laboratories, and small discussion sessions; (2) provide information on how instructors can produce their own Planeterrella for their courses; and (3) invite meeting attendees to engage in a discussion on how we might be able to improve on the current design of the Planeterrella, and how to reach students in more parts of the world.

Does Weather Matter? The Effect of Weather Patterns and Temporal Factors on Pediatric Orthopedic Trauma Volume

PubMed Central

Livingston, Kristin S.; Miller, Patricia E.; Lierhaus, Anneliese; Matheney, Travis H.; Mahan, Susan T.

2016-01-01

Objectives: Orthopaedists often speculate how weather and school schedule may influence pediatric orthopedic trauma volume, but few studies have examined this. This study aims to determine: how do weather patterns, day, month, season and public school schedule influence the daily frequency of pediatric orthopedic trauma consults and admissions? Methods: With IRB approval, orthopedic trauma data from a level 1 pediatric trauma center, including number of daily orthopedic trauma consults and admissions, were collected from July 2009 to March 2012. Historical weather data (high temperatures, precipitation and hours of daylight), along with local public school schedule data were collected for the same time period. Univariate and multivariate regression models were used to show the average number of orthopedic trauma consults and admissions as a function of weather and temporal variables. Results: High temperature, precipitation, month and day of the week significantly affected the number of daily consults and admissions. The number of consults and admissions increased by 1% for each degree increase in temperature (p=0.001 and p<0.001, respectively), and decreased by 21% for each inch of precipitation (p<0.001, p=0.006). Daily consults on snowy days decreased by an additional 16% compared to days with no precipitation. November had the lowest daily consult and admission rate, while September had the highest. Daily consult rate was lowest on Wednesdays and highest on Saturdays. Holiday schedule was not independently significant. Conclusion: Pediatric orthopedic trauma consultations and admissions are highly linked to temperature and precipitation, as well as day of the week and time of year. PMID:27990193

Does Weather Matter? The Effect of Weather Patterns and Temporal Factors on Pediatric Orthopedic Trauma Volume.

PubMed

Livingston, Kristin S; Miller, Patricia E; Lierhaus, Anneliese; Matheney, Travis H; Mahan, Susan T

2016-01-01

Orthopaedists often speculate how weather and school schedule may influence pediatric orthopedic trauma volume, but few studies have examined this. This study aims to determine: how do weather patterns, day, month, season and public school schedule influence the daily frequency of pediatric orthopedic trauma consults and admissions? With IRB approval, orthopedic trauma data from a level 1 pediatric trauma center, including number of daily orthopedic trauma consults and admissions, were collected from July 2009 to March 2012. Historical weather data (high temperatures, precipitation and hours of daylight), along with local public school schedule data were collected for the same time period. Univariate and multivariate regression models were used to show the average number of orthopedic trauma consults and admissions as a function of weather and temporal variables. High temperature, precipitation, month and day of the week significantly affected the number of daily consults and admissions. The number of consults and admissions increased by 1% for each degree increase in temperature (p=0.001 and p<0.001, respectively), and decreased by 21% for each inch of precipitation (p<0.001, p=0.006). Daily consults on snowy days decreased by an additional 16% compared to days with no precipitation. November had the lowest daily consult and admission rate, while September had the highest. Daily consult rate was lowest on Wednesdays and highest on Saturdays. Holiday schedule was not independently significant. Pediatric orthopedic trauma consultations and admissions are highly linked to temperature and precipitation, as well as day of the week and time of year.

Weatherization Works--Summary of Findings from the Retrospective Evaluation of the U.S. DOE's Weatherization Assistance Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tonn, Bruce Edward; Carroll, David; Pigg, Scott

This report presents a summary of the studies and analyses that compose the retrospective evaluation of the U.S. Department of Energy s low-income Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). WAP provides grants to Grantees (i.e., states) that then provide grants to Subgrantees (i.e., local weatherization agencies) to weatherize low-income homes. This evaluation focused on the WAP Program Year 2008. The retrospective evaluation produced twenty separate reports, including this summary. Four separate reports address the energy savings, energy cost savings, and cost effectiveness of WAP across four housing types: single family, mobile home, small multifamily, and large multifamily. Other reports address the environmentalmore » emissions, macroeconomic, and health and household-related benefits attributable to WAP, and characterize the program, its recipients, and those eligible for the program. Major field studies are also summarized, including a major indoor air quality study and a follow-up ventilation study, an in-depth in-field assessment of weatherization work and quality, and a study that assesses reasons for variations in energy savings across homes. Results of surveys of weatherization staff, occupants, occupants satisfaction with weatherization services provided, and weatherization trainees are summarized. Lastly, this report summarizes a set of fifteen case studies of high-performing and unique local weatherization agencies.« less

History of the National Weather Service - Public Affairs - NOAA's National

Science.gov Websites

enter or select the go button to submit request City, St Go About NWS -Mission -Strategic Plan -History and local government web resources and services. Home >> History History of the National Weather Service The National Weather Service has its beginnings in the early history of the United States. Weather

Weatherization and Indoor Air Quality: Measured Impacts in Single Family Homes Under the Weatherization Assistance Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pigg, Scott; Cautley, Dan; Francisco, Paul

2014-09-01

This report summarizes findings from a national field study of indoor air quality parameters in homes treated under the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). The study involved testing and monitoring in 514 single-family homes (including mobile homes) located in 35 states and served by 88 local weatherization agencies.

Weather & Climate. Science Syllabus for Middle and Junior High Schools. Block E.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Geer, Ira W.

This syllabus is divided into three sections and three appendices. The first section lists program objectives with corresponding performance criteria for seven areas of weather/climate study: (1) broad-scale weather systems; (2) local weather; (3) the atmospheric environment; (4) energy and motion in the atmosphere; (5) water in the atmosphere;…

Associations between malaria and local and global climate variability in five regions in Papua New Guinea.

PubMed

Imai, Chisato; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Kim, Ho; Honda, Yasushi; Eum, Jin-Hee; Kim, Clara T; Kim, Jin Seob; Kim, Yoonhee; Behera, Swadhin K; Hassan, Mohd Nasir; Nealon, Joshua; Chung, Hyenmi; Hashizume, Masahiro

2016-01-01

Malaria is a significant public health issue in Papua New Guinea (PNG) as the burden is among the highest in Asia and the Pacific region. Though PNG's vulnerability to climate change and sensitivity of malaria mosquitoes to weather are well-documented, there are few in-depth epidemiological studies conducted on the potential impacts of climate on malaria incidence in the country. This study explored what and how local weather and global climate variability impact on malaria incidence in five regions of PNG. Time series methods were applied to evaluate the associations of malaria incidence with weather and climate factors, respectively. Local weather factors including precipitation and temperature and global climate phenomena such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the ENSO Modoki, the Southern Annular Mode, and the Indian Ocean Dipole were considered in analyses. The results showed that malaria incidence was associated with local weather factors in most regions but at the different lag times and in directions. Meanwhile, there were trends in associations with global climate factors by geographical locations of study sites. Overall heterogeneous associations suggest the importance of location-specific approaches in PNG not only for further investigations but also public health interventions in repose to the potential impacts arising from climate change.

Energy, Weatherization and Indoor Air Quality

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Climate change presents many challenges, including the production of severe weather events. These events and efforts to minimize their effects through weatherization can adversely affect indoor environments.

Passenger bus industry weather information application.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-03-21

Adverse weather significantly affects the United States national transportation system, including commercial companies that rely on highways to support their enterprises. The Passenger Bus (Motorcoach) Industry (PBI) is one such affected user whose o...

Software Reviews.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGrath, Diane, Ed.

1989-01-01

Reviewed are two computer software programs for Apple II computers on weather for upper elementary and middle school grades. "Weather" introduces the major factors (temperature, humidity, wind, and air pressure) affecting weather. "How Weather Works" uses simulation and auto-tutorial formats on sun, wind, fronts, clouds, and…

Remote sensing, global warming, and vector-borne disease

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, B.; Beck, L.; Dister, S.

1997-12-31

The relationship between climate change and the pattern of vector-borne disease can be viewed at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. At one extreme are changes such as global warming, which are continental in scale and occur over periods of years, decades, or longer. At the opposite extreme are changes associated with severe weather events, which can occur at local and regional scales over periods of days, weeks, or months. Key ecological factors affecting the distribution of vector-borne diseases include temperature, precipitation, and habitat availability, and their impact on vectors, pathogens, reservoirs, and hosts. Global warming can potentially altermore » these factors, thereby affecting the spatial and temporal patterns of disease.« less

MSFC Doppler Lidar Science experiments and operations plans for 1981 airborne test flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fichtl, G. H.; Bilbro, J. W.; Kaufman, J. W.

1981-01-01

The flight experiment and operations plans for the Doppler Lidar System (DLS) are provided. Application of DLS to the study of severe storms and local weather penomena is addressed. Test plans involve 66 hours of flight time. Plans also include ground based severe storm and local weather data acquisition.

Meteorological factors associated with abundance of airborne fungal spores over natural vegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crandall, Sharifa G.; Gilbert, Gregory S.

2017-08-01

The abundance of airborne fungal spores in agricultural and urban settings increases with greater air temperature, relative humidity, or precipitation. The same meteorological factors that affect temporal patterns in spore abundance in managed environments also vary spatially across natural habitats in association with differences in vegetation structure. Here we investigated how temporal and spatial variation in aerial spore abundance is affected by abiotic (weather) and biotic (vegetation) factors as a foundation for predicting how fungi may respond to changes in weather and land-use patterns. We measured the phenology of airborne fungal spores across a mosaic of naturally occurring vegetation types at different time scales to describe (1) how spore abundance changes over time, (2) which local meteorological variables are good predictors for airborne spore density, and (3) whether spore abundance differs across vegetation types. Using an air volumetric vacuum sampler, we collected spore samples at 3-h intervals over a 120-h period in a mixed-evergreen forest and coastal prairie to measure diurnal, nocturnal, and total airborne spore abundance across vegetation types. Spore samples were also collected at weekly and monthly intervals in mixed-evergreen forest, redwood forest, and maritime chaparral vegetation types from 12 field sites across two years. We found greater airborne spore densities during the wetter winter months compared to the drier summer months. Mean total spore abundance in the mixed-evergreen forest was twice than in the coastal prairie, but there were no significant differences in total airborne spore abundance among mixed-evergreen forest, redwood forest, and maritime chaparral vegetation types. Weekly and monthly peaks in airborne spore abundance corresponded with rain events and peaks in soil moisture. Overall, temporal patterns in meteorological factors were much more important in determining airborne fungal spore abundance than the vegetation type. This suggests that overall patterns of fungal spore dynamics may be predictable across heterogeneous landscapes based on local weather patterns.

A Nine-year Record of Groundwater Environmental Tracer Variations in a Weathered Sandstone Plateau Aquifer.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cendon, D. I.; Hankin, S. I.; Hughes, C. E.; Meredith, K.; Peterson, M.; Scheiber, L.; Shimizu, Y.

2016-12-01

Most groundwater isotopic studies are limited to one snapshot in time due to high costs associated with sampling and analytical procedures. The timing of sampling within long-term seasonal climatic cycles may affect interpretations, particularly in unconfined or semi-confined aquifer systems. To test the potential influence of decadal climatic trends, particularly on groundwater residence time, we have combined results from a multi-year sampling programme. Hydrogeochemistry and isotopic tracer analysis including H2O stable isotopes, δ13CDIC, 3H, 14CDIC for all samples and 87Sr/86Sr and NO3-δ15N, have been applied to groundwater recovered from the Kulnura - Mangrove Mountain aquifer hosted by a weathered sandstone plateau within the Sydney Basin (Australia). In general, the study area is characterised by alternating dry and wet periods that can be prolonged as they are linked to wider climatic events such as El Niño, La Niña and modulated by the Indian Ocean Dipole. The region experienced above average rainfall from 1985-1990 followed by generally drier conditions (1991-2007) and slightly wetter conditions to 2015. Groundwater results from the first years (2006-2010), under generally dry conditions resulted in lower groundwater levels, revealed important inter-annual variations. These are interpreted to be locally driven by groundwater extraction, resulting in a progressive influx of modern groundwater. The progressive input of modern water has exposed deeper parts of the aquifer to increased NO3- concentrations of anthropogenic origin. The change in chemistry of the groundwater, particularly the lowering of groundwater pH, has accelerated the dissolution of carbonate mineral phases that in turn affects 14C residence time assessments. Subsequent sampling results (2012-2015), under higher rainfall conditions, suggest modern recharge in areas previously without measurable tritium activities. The complex interplay between recharge, anthropogenic influences and climate may be further complicated by the local irregularities in the sandstone weathering profile and the transition to preferential groundwater fracture-flow with depth.

Talking Climate Science in a Changing Media Landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cullen, H. M.

2014-12-01

Founded in 2008 by leading scientists and communications experts at Princeton, Yale and Stanford, Climate Central brings together award-winning journalists and internationally recognized scientists to report the science and impacts of climate change through its research and journalism programs. Climate Central works to tackle the misperception that climate change is a distant thing - affecting other people and other places - by demonstrating the local and personal impacts of global warming. This talk will focus on describing three important Climate Central initiatives. First, our Climate Matters program delivers localized climate information at the regional and local level to weathercasters around the U.S., providing ready-to-use, broadcast quality graphics and analyses that put climate change in a local context. After three years, the program has grown from a pilot with just one TV meteorologist in Columbia, South Carolina to a network of more than 150 weathercasters across the country. Climate Central was also closely involved in the development and production of Years of Living Dangerously - a 9-part global warming documentary that premiered in April 2014. Finally, the World Weather Attribution project is a new initiative that aims to identify the human fingerprint in certain types of extreme weather events, including sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events, heavy rainfall events/flooding, and drought. Our goal is to objectively and transparently assess certain extreme events and equip journalists and scientists with the tools to provide the larger global warming context in real-time while there is still media interest.

The Weather of the Future: Heat Waves, Extreme Storms, and Other Scenes from a Climate-Changed Planet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cullen, H. M.

2010-12-01

In The Weather of the Future, Dr. Heidi Cullen puts a vivid face on climate change, offering a new way of seeing this phenomenon not just as an event set to happen in the distant future but as something happening right now in our own backyards. Arguing that we must connect the weather of today with the climate change of tomorrow, Cullen combines the latest research from scientists on the ground with state-of-the-art climate model projections to create climate-change scenarios for seven of the most at-risk locations around the world. From the Central Valley of California, where coming droughts will jeopardize the entire state’s water supply, to Greenland, where warmer temperatures will give access to mineral wealth buried beneath ice sheets for millennia, Cullen illustrates how, if left unabated, climate change will transform every corner of the world by midcentury. What emerges is a mosaic of changing weather patterns that collectively spell out the range of risks posed by global warming—whether it’s New York City, whose infrastructure is extremely vulnerable even to a relatively weak Category 3 hurricane or to Bangladesh, a country so low-lying that millions of people could become climate refugees thanks to rising sea levels. The Weather of the Future makes climate change local, showing how no two regions of the country or the world will be affected in quite the same way and demonstrating that melting ice is just the beginning.

Weather explains high annual variation in butterfly dispersal

PubMed Central

Rytteri, Susu; Heikkinen, Risto K.; Heliölä, Janne; von Bagh, Peter

2016-01-01

Weather conditions fundamentally affect the activity of short-lived insects. Annual variation in weather is therefore likely to be an important determinant of their between-year variation in dispersal, but conclusive empirical studies are lacking. We studied whether the annual variation of dispersal can be explained by the flight season's weather conditions in a Clouded Apollo (Parnassius mnemosyne) metapopulation. This metapopulation was monitored using the mark–release–recapture method for 12 years. Dispersal was quantified for each monitoring year using three complementary measures: emigration rate (fraction of individuals moving between habitat patches), average residence time in the natal patch, and average distance moved. There was much variation both in dispersal and average weather conditions among the years. Weather variables significantly affected the three measures of dispersal and together with adjusting variables explained 79–91% of the variation observed in dispersal. Different weather variables became selected in the models explaining variation in three dispersal measures apparently because of the notable intercorrelations. In general, dispersal rate increased with increasing temperature, solar radiation, proportion of especially warm days, and butterfly density, and decreased with increasing cloudiness, rainfall, and wind speed. These results help to understand and model annually varying dispersal dynamics of species affected by global warming. PMID:27440662

Changes in fire weather distributions: effects on predicted fire behavior

Treesearch

Lucy A. Salazar; Larry S. Bradshaw

1984-01-01

Data that represent average worst fire weather for a particular area are used to index daily fire danger; however, they do not account for different locations or diurnal weather changes that significantly affect fire behavior potential. To study the effects that selected changes in weather databases have on computed fire behavior parameters, weather data for the...

New efficient optimizing techniques for Kalman filters and numerical weather prediction models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Famelis, Ioannis; Galanis, George; Liakatas, Aristotelis

2016-06-01

The need for accurate local environmental predictions and simulations beyond the classical meteorological forecasts are increasing the last years due to the great number of applications that are directly or not affected: renewable energy resource assessment, natural hazards early warning systems, global warming and questions on the climate change can be listed among them. Within this framework the utilization of numerical weather and wave prediction systems in conjunction with advanced statistical techniques that support the elimination of the model bias and the reduction of the error variability may successfully address the above issues. In the present work, new optimization methods are studied and tested in selected areas of Greece where the use of renewable energy sources is of critical. The added value of the proposed work is due to the solid mathematical background adopted making use of Information Geometry and Statistical techniques, new versions of Kalman filters and state of the art numerical analysis tools.

Assessing measurement uncertainty in meteorology in urban environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curci, S.; Lavecchia, C.; Frustaci, G.; Paolini, R.; Pilati, S.; Paganelli, C.

2017-10-01

Measurement uncertainty in meteorology has been addressed in a number of recent projects. In urban environments, uncertainty is also affected by local effects which are more difficult to deal with than for synoptic stations. In Italy, beginning in 2010, an urban meteorological network (Climate Network®) was designed, set up and managed at national level according to high metrological standards and homogeneity criteria to support energy applications. The availability of such a high-quality operative automatic weather station network represents an opportunity to investigate the effects of station siting and sensor exposure and to estimate the related measurement uncertainty. An extended metadata set was established for the stations in Milan, including siting and exposure details. Statistical analysis on an almost 3-year-long operational period assessed network homogeneity, quality and reliability. Deviations from reference mean values were then evaluated in selected low-gradient local weather situations in order to investigate siting and exposure effects. In this paper the methodology is depicted and preliminary results of its application to air temperature discussed; this allowed the setting of an upper limit of 1 °C for the added measurement uncertainty at the top of the urban canopy layer.

WRF simulation of downslope wind events in coastal Santa Barbara County

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannon, Forest; Carvalho, Leila M. V.; Jones, Charles; Hall, Todd; Gomberg, David; Dumas, John; Jackson, Mark

2017-07-01

The National Weather Service (NWS) considers frequent gusty downslope winds, accompanied by rapid warming and decreased relative humidity, among the most significant weather events affecting southern California coastal areas in the vicinity of Santa Barbara (SB). These extreme conditions, commonly known as "sundowners", have affected the evolution of all major wildfires that impacted SB in recent years. Sundowners greatly increase fire, aviation and maritime navigation hazards and are thus a priority for regional forecasting. Currently, the NWS employs the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model at 2 km resolution to complement forecasts at regional-to-local scales. However, no systematic study has been performed to evaluate the skill of WRF in simulating sundowners. This research presents a case study of an 11-day period in spring 2004 during which sundowner events were observed on multiple nights. We perform sensitivity experiments for WRF using available observations for validation and demonstrate that WRF is skillful in representing the general mesoscale structure of these events, though important shortcomings exist. Furthermore, we discuss the generation and evolution of sundowners during the case study using the best performing configuration, and compare these results to hindcasts for two major SB fires. Unique, but similar, profiles of wind and stability are observed over SB between case studies despite considerable differences in large-scale circulation, indicating that common conditions may exist across all events. These findings aid in understanding the evolution of sundowner events and are potentially valuable for event prediction.

Results of the Clarus demonstrations : evaluation of enhanced road weather forecasting enabled by Clarus.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-06-14

This document is the final report of an evaluation of Clarus-enabled enhanced road weather forecasting used in the Clarus Demonstrations. This report examines the use of Clarus data to enhance four types of weather models and forecasts: The Local Ana...

Ionospheric Effects of X-Ray Solar Bursts in the Brazilian Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker-Guedes, F.; Takahashi, H.; Costa, J. E.; Otsuka, Y.

2011-12-01

When the solar X-ray flux in the interplanetary medium reaches values above a certain threshold, some undesired effects affecting radio communications are expected. Basically, the magnitudes of these effects depend on the X-ray peak brightness and duration, which drive the intensity of the ionosphere response when the associated electromagnetic wave hit the sunlit side of the Earth atmosphere. An important aspect defining the severity of damages to HF radio communications and LF navigation signals in a certain area is the local time when each event takes place. In order to create more accurate warnings referred to possible radio signal loss or degradation in the Brazilian sector, we analyze TEC maps obtained by a GPS network, formed by dual-frequency receivers spread all over the country, to observe ionospheric local changes during several X-ray events in the 0.1-0.8 nm range measured by GOES satellite. Considering the duration, peak brightness, and local time of the events, the final purpose of this study is to understand and predict the degree of changes suffered by the ionosphere during these X-ray bursts. We intend using these results to create a radio blackout warning product to be offered by the Brazilian space weather program named EMBRACE (Estudo e Monitoramento BRAsileiro do Clima Espacial): Brazilian Monitoring and Study of Space Weather.

UCAR group urges STORM program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richman, Barbara T.

A blue-ribbon panel of scientists has proposed a decade-long, $1 billion program to improve forecasting operations and research of regional and local hazardous weather. The panel, appointed by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), believes that the program could reduce the $20-billion annual cost of damage from severe weather by $1 billion per year.The primary aim of the program is to ‘enable weather services, public and private, to observe and predict stormscale weather phenomena— such as squall lines, thunderstorms, flash floods, local heavy snows, or tornadoes—with the accuracy and reliability to protect the public, serve the national economy, and meet defense requirements,’ as explained in the report, The National STORM (Stormscale Operational and Research Meteorology) Program: A Call to Action. Stormscale phenomena also include nonviolent weather: freezing rain, dense ground fog, low-lying clouds that disrupt ground or air traffic, persistent temperature inversions, and strong nocturnal cooling that may produce killing frost.

Prevalence of weather sensitivity in Germany and Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackensen, Sylvia; Hoeppe, Peter; Maarouf, Abdel; Tourigny, Pierre; Nowak, Dennis

2005-01-01

Several studies have shown that atmospheric conditions can affect well-being or disease, and that some individuals seem to be more sensitive to weather than others. Since epidemiological data on the prevalence of weather-related health effects are lacking, two representative weather sensitivity (WS) surveys were conducted independently in Germany and Canada. The objectives of this paper are: (1) to identify the prevalence of WS in Germany and Canada, (2) to describe weather-related symptoms and the corresponding weather conditions, and (3) to compare the findings in the two countries. In Germany 1,064 citizens (age >16 years) were interviewed in January 2001, and in Canada 1,506 persons (age >18 years) were interviewed in January 1994. The results showed that 19.2% of the German population thought that weather affected their health “to a strong degree,” 35.3% that weather had “some influence on their health” (sum of both = 54.5% weather sensitive), whereas the remaining 45.5% did not consider that weather had an effect on their health status. In Canada 61% of the respondents considered themselves to be sensitive to the weather. The highest prevalence of WS (high + some influence) in Germans was found in the age group older than 60 years (68%), which was almost identical in the Canadian population (69%). The highest frequencies of weather-related symptoms were reported in Germany for stormy weather (30%) and when it became colder (29%). In Canada mainly cold weather (46%), dampness (21%) and rain (20%) were considered to affect health more than other weather types. The most frequent symptoms reported in Germany were headache/migraine (61%), lethargy (47%), sleep disturbances (46%), fatigue (42%), joint pain (40%), irritation (31%), depression (27%), vertigo (26%), concentration problems (26%) and scar pain (23%). Canadian weather-sensitive persons reported colds (29%), psychological effects (28%) and painful joints, muscles or arthritis (10%). In Germany 32% of the weather-sensitive subjects reported themselves to be unable to do their regular work because of weather-related symptoms at least once in the previous year, and 22% of them several times. Co-morbidity was significantly higher in weather-sensitive subjects both in Germany and Canada. These results clearly showed the important impact of WS on public health and the economy. These findings prompted us to start studies on the causal factors of weather-related health effects.

The Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook: A collaboration between scientific and Indigenous communities to support safety and food security in a changing Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield Guy, L.; Wiggins, H. V.; Schreck, M. B.; Metcalf, V. K.

2017-12-01

The Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook (SIWO) provides Alaskan Native subsistence walrus hunters and Bering Strait coastal communities with weekly reports on spring sea ice and weather conditions to promote hunter safety, food security, and preservation of cultural heritage. These reports integrate scientific and Indigenous knowledge into a co-produced tool that is used by both local and scientific communities. SIWO is a team effort led by the Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S. (ARCUS, with funding from NSF Arctic Sciences Section), with the Eskimo Walrus Commission, National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program, University of Alaska Fairbanks - International Arctic Research Center, and local observers. For each weekly outlook, the National Weather Service provides location-specific weather and sea ice forecasts and regional satellite imagery. Local observations of sea ice, weather, and hunting conditions are provided by observers from five Alaskan communities in the Bering Strait region: Wales, Shishmaref, Nome, Gambell, and Savoonga. These observations typically include a written description of conditions accompanied by photographs of sea ice or subsistence activities. Outlooks are easily accessible and provide a platform for sharing of knowledge among hunters in neighboring communities. The opportunity to contribute is open, and Indigenous language and terms are encouraged. These observations from local hunters and community members also provide a valuable tool for validation of weather forecasts, satellite products, and other information for scientists. This presentation will discuss the process, products, and mutually beneficial outcomes of the Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook.

Weather and Climate Monitoring Protocol, Channel Islands National Park, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

McEachern, Kathryn; Power, Paula; Dye, Linda; Rudolph, Rocky

2008-01-01

Weather and climate are strong drivers of population dynamics, plant and animal spatial distributions, community interactions, and ecosystem states. Information on local weather and climate is crucial in interpreting trends and patterns in the natural environment for resource management, research, and visitor enjoyment. This document describes the weather and climate monitoring program at the Channel Islands National Park (fig. 1), initiated in the 1990s. Manual and automated stations, which continue to evolve as technology changes, are being used for this program. The document reviews the history of weather data collection on each of the five Channel Islands National Park islands, presents program administrative structure, and provides an overview of procedures for data collection, archival, retrieval, and reporting. This program overview is accompanied by the 'Channel Islands National Park Remote Automated Weather Station Field Handbook' and the 'Channel Islands National Park Ranger Weather Station Field Handbook'. These Handbooks are maintained separately at the Channel Island National Park as 'live documents' that are updated as needed to provide a current working manual of weather and climate monitoring procedures. They are available on request from the Weather Program Manager (Channel Islands National Park, 1901 Spinnaker Dr., Ventura, CA 93001; 805.658.5700). The two Field Handbooks describe in detail protocols for managing the four remote automated weather stations (RAWS) and the seven manual Ranger Weather Stations on the islands, including standard operating procedures for equipment maintenance and calibration; manufacturer operating manuals; data retrieval and archiving; metada collection and archival; and local, agency, and vendor contracts.

A Milestone in Commercial Space Weather: USTAR Center for Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Thompson, D. C.; Scherliess, L.; Zhu, L.; Gardner, L. C.

2009-12-01

As of 2009, Utah State University (USU) hosts a new organization to develop commercial space weather applications using funding that has been provided by the State of Utah’s Utah Science Technology and Research (USTAR) initiative. The USTAR Center for Space Weather (UCSW) is located on the USU campus in Logan, Utah and is developing innovative applications for mitigating adverse space weather effects in technological systems. Space weather’s effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the Sun’s photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the ionosphere is the key region that affects communication and navigation systems. The UCSW has developed products for users of systems that are affected by space weather-driven ionospheric changes. For example, on September 1, 2009 USCW released, in conjunction with Space Environment Technologies, the world’s first real-time space weather via an iPhone app. Space WX displays the real-time, current global ionosphere total electron content along with its space weather drivers; it is available through the Apple iTunes store and is used around the planet. The Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) system is now being run operationally in real-time at UCSW with the continuous ingestion of hundreds of global data streams to dramatically improve the ionosphere’s characterization. We discuss not only funding and technical advances that have led to current products but also describe the direction for UCSW that includes partnering opportunities for moving commercial space weather into fully automated specification and forecasting over the next half decade.

Vehicle automation and weather : challenges and opportunities.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-12-25

Adverse weather has major impacts on the safety and operations of all roads, from signalized arterials to Interstate highways. Weather affects driver behavior, vehicle performance, pavement friction, and roadway infrastructure, thereby increasing the...

Cross-correlation map analyses show weather variation influences on mosquito abundance patterns in Saginaw County, Michigan, 1989-2005.

PubMed

Chuang, Ting-Wu; Ionides, Edward L; Knepper, Randall G; Stanuszek, William W; Walker, Edward D; Wilson, Mark L

2012-07-01

Weather is important determinant of mosquito abundance that, in turn, influences vectorborne disease dynamics. In temperate regions, transmission generally is seasonal as mosquito abundance and behavior varies with temperature, precipitation, and other meteorological factors. We investigated how such factors affected species-specific mosquito abundance patterns in Saginaw County, MI, during a 17-yr period. Systematic sampling was undertaken at 22 trapping sites from May to September, during 1989-2005, for 19,228 trap-nights and 300,770 mosquitoes in total. Aedes vexans (Meigen), Culex pipiens L. and Culex restuans Theobald, the most abundant species, were analyzed. Weather data included local daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, total precipitation, and average relative humidity. In addition to standard statistical methods, cross-correlation mapping was used to evaluate temporal associations with various lag periods between weather variables and species-specific mosquito abundances. Overall, the average number of mosquitoes was 4.90 per trap-night for Ae. vexans, 2.12 for Cx. pipiens, and 1.23 for Cx. restuans. Statistical analysis of the considerable temporal variability in species-specific abundances indicated that precipitation and relative humidity 1 wk prior were significantly positively associated with Ae. vexans, whereas elevated maximum temperature had a negative effect during summer. Cx. pipiens abundance was positively influenced by the preceding minimum temperature in the early season but negatively associated with precipitation during summer and with maximum temperature in July and August. Cx. restuans showed the least weather association, with only relative humidity 2-24 d prior being linked positively during late spring-early summer. The recently developed analytical method applied in this study could enhance our understanding of the influences of weather variability on mosquito population dynamics.

Gauging climate change effects at local scales: weather-based indices to monitor insect harassment in caribou.

PubMed

Witter, Leslie A; Johnson, Chris J; Croft, Bruno; Gunn, Anne; Poirier, Lisa M

2012-09-01

Climate change is occurring at an accelerated rate in the Arctic. Insect harassment may be an important link between increased summer temperature and reduced body condition in caribou and reindeer (both Rangifer tarandus). To examine the effects of climate change at a scale relevant to Rangifer herds, we developed monitoring indices using weather to predict activity of parasitic insects across the central Arctic. During 2007-2009, we recorded weather conditions and used carbon dioxide baited traps to monitor activity of mosquitoes (Culicidae), black flies (Simuliidae), and oestrid flies (Oestridae) on the post-calving and summer range of the Bathurst barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) herd in Northwest Territories and Nunavut, Canada. We developed statistical models representing hypotheses about effects of weather, habitat, location, and temporal variables on insect activity. We used multinomial logistic regression to model mosquito and black fly activity, and logistic regression to model oestrid fly presence. We used information theory to select models to predict activity levels of insects. Using historical weather data, we used hindcasting to develop a chronology of insect activity on the Bathurst range from 1957 to 2008. Oestrid presence and mosquito and black fly activity levels were explained by temperature. Wind speed, light intensity, barometric pressure, relative humidity, vegetation, topography, location, time of day, and growing degree-days also affected mosquito and black fly levels. High predictive ability of all models justified the use of weather to index insect activity. Retrospective analyses indicated conditions favoring mosquito activity declined since the late 1950s, while predicted black fly and oestrid activity increased. Our indices can be used as monitoring tools to gauge potential changes in insect harassment due to climate change at scales relevant to caribou herds.

Trace fossils, sedimentary facies and parasequence architecture from the Lower Cretaceous Mulichinco Formation of Argentina: The role of fair-weather waves in shoreface deposits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wesolowski, Lindsey J. N.; Buatois, Luis A.; Mángano, M. Gabriela; Ponce, Juan José; Carmona, Noelia B.

2018-05-01

Shorefaces can display strong facies variability and integration of sedimentology and ichnology provides a high-resolution model to identify variations among strongly storm-dominated (high energy), moderately storm-affected (intermediate energy), and weakly storm-affected (low energy) shoreface deposits. In addition, ichnology has proved to be of help to delineate parasequences as trace-fossil associations are excellent indicators of environmental conditions which typically change along the depositional profile. Shallow-marine deposits and associated ichnofaunas from the Mulichinco Formation (Valanginian, Lower Cretaceous) in Puerta Curaco, Neuquén Basin, western Argentina, were analyzed to evaluate stress factors on shoreface benthos and parasequence architecture. During storm-dominated conditions, the Skolithos Ichnofacies prevails within the offshore transition and lower shoreface represented by assemblages dominated by Thalassinoides isp. and Ophiomorpha irregulaire. Under weakly storm-affected conditions, the Cruziana Ichnofacies is recognized, characterized by assemblages dominated by Thalassinoides isp. and Gyrochorte comosa in the offshore transition, and by Gyrochorte comosa within the lower shoreface. Storm-influenced conditions yield wider ichnologic variability, showing elements of both ichnofacies. Storm influence on sedimentation is affected by both allogenic (e.g. tectonic subsidence, sea-level, and sediment influx) and autogenic (e.g. hydrodynamic) controls at both parasequence and intra-parasequence scales. Four distinct types of parasequences were recognized, strongly storm-dominated, moderately storm-affected, moderately storm-affected - strongly fair-weather reworked, and weakly storm-affected, categorized based on parasequence architectural variability derived from varying degrees of storm and fair-weather wave influence. The new type of shoreface described here, the moderately storm-affected - strongly fair-weather reworked shoreface, features storm deposits reworked thoroughly by fair-weather waves. During fair-weather wave reworking, elements of the Cruziana Ichnofacies are overprinted upon relict elements of the Skolithos Ichnofacies from previous storm induced deposition. This type of shoreface, commonly overlooked in past literature, expands our understanding of the sedimentary dynamics and stratigraphic architecture in a shoreface susceptible to various parasequence and intra-parasequence scale degrees of storm and fair-weather wave influence.

Weather or Not To Teach Junior High Meteorology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knorr, Thomas P.

1984-01-01

Presents a technique for teaching meteorology allowing students to observe and analyze consecutive weather maps and relate local conditions; a model illustrating the three-dimensional nature of the atmosphere is employed. Instructional methods based on studies of daily weather maps to trace systems sweeping across the United States are discussed.…

The Early Years: About the Weather

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ashbrook, Peggy

2015-01-01

Observing and documenting elements of weather teach children about using tools and their senses to learn about the environment. This column discusses resources and science topics related to students in grades preK to 2. This month's issue describes an activity where students indirectly document local weather by counting outdoor clothing types worn…

46 CFR 45.191 - Pre-departure requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... voyage, the towing vessel master must conduct the following: (a) Weather forecast. Determine the marine weather forecast along the planned route, and contact the dock operator at the destination port to get an update on local weather conditions. (b) Inspection. Inspect each barge of the tow to ensure that they...

Hawaiian Marine Reports

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(PHMO) Kohala (PHKM) South Point (PHWA) Forecasts Activity Planner Hawaii Marine Aviation Fire Weather (PHWA) Forecasts Activity Planner Hawaii Marine Aviation Fire Weather Local Graphics National Graphics

47 CFR 73.314 - Field strength measurements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

..., such as topography, height and types of vegetation, buildings, obstacles, weather, and other local... the approximate time of measurement, weather, topography, overhead wiring, heights and types of...

47 CFR 73.314 - Field strength measurements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

..., such as topography, height and types of vegetation, buildings, obstacles, weather, and other local... the approximate time of measurement, weather, topography, overhead wiring, heights and types of...

47 CFR 73.314 - Field strength measurements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

..., such as topography, height and types of vegetation, buildings, obstacles, weather, and other local... the approximate time of measurement, weather, topography, overhead wiring, heights and types of...

47 CFR 73.314 - Field strength measurements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

..., such as topography, height and types of vegetation, buildings, obstacles, weather, and other local... the approximate time of measurement, weather, topography, overhead wiring, heights and types of...

Does Life Seem Better on a Sunny Day? Examining the Association between Daily Weather Conditions and Life Satisfaction Judgments

PubMed Central

Lucas, Richard E.; Lawless, Nicole M.

2013-01-01

Weather conditions have been shown to affect a broad range of thoughts, feelings, and behaviors. The current study examines whether these effects extend to life satisfaction judgments. We examine the association between daily weather conditions and life satisfaction in a representative sample of over 1 million Americans from all 50 states who were assessed (in a cross-sectional design) over a 5-year period. Most daily weather conditions were unrelated to life satisfaction judgments, and those effects that were significant reflect very small effects that were only detectable because of the extremely high power of these analyses. These results show that weather does not reliably affect judgments of life satisfaction. PMID:23607534

Outdoor temperature, precipitation, and wind speed affect physical activity levels in children: a longitudinal cohort study

PubMed Central

Edwards, Nicholas M.; Myer, Gregory D.; Kalkwarf, Heidi J.; Woo, Jessica G.; Khoury, Philip R.; Hewett, Timothy E.; Daniels, Stephen R.

2015-01-01

Objective Evaluate effects of local weather conditions on physical activity in early childhood. Methods Longitudinal prospective cohort study of 372 children, 3 years old at enrollment, drawn from a major US metropolitan community. Accelerometer-measured (RT3) physical activity was collected every 4 months over 5 years and matched with daily weather measures: day length, heating/cooling degrees (degrees mean temperature < 65°F or ≥ 65°F, respectively), wind, and precipitation. Mixed regression analyses, adjusted for repeated measures, were used to test the relationship between weather and physical activity. Results Precipitation and wind speed were negatively associated with total physical activity and moderate-vigorous physical activity (P<0.0001). Heating and cooling degrees were negatively associated with total physical activity and moderate-vigorous physical activity and positively associated with inactivity (all P<0.0001), independent of age, sex, race, BMI, day length, wind, and precipitation. For every 10 additional heating degrees there was a five-minute daily reduction in moderate-vigorous physical activity. For every additional 10 cooling degrees there was a 17-minute reduction in moderate-vigorous physical activity. Conclusions Inclement weather (higher/lower temperature, greater wind speed, more rain/snow) is associated with less physical activity in young children. These deleterious effects should be considered when planning physical activity research, interventions, and policies. PMID:25423667

NOAA Response to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill - Protecting Oceans, Coasts and Fisheries (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lubchenco, J.

2010-12-01

As the nation’s leading scientific resource for oil spills, NOAA has been on the scene of the Deepwater Horizon/BP oil spill from the start, providing coordinated scientific weather and biological response services to federal, state and local organizations. NOAA has mobilized experts from across the agency to help contain the spreading oil spill and protect the Gulf of Mexico’s many marine mammals, sea turtles, fish, shellfish and other endangered marine life. NOAA spill specialists advised the U.S. Coast Guard on cleanup options as well as advising all affected federal, state and local partners on sensitive marine resources at risk in this area of the Gulf of Mexico. As a major partner in the federal response to this incident, NOAA provided the necessary coastal and marine expertise required for sound, timely decision-making and helped protect the affected Gulf Coast communities and coastal marine environment and will continue to do so for ongoing restoration efforts.

Aeolian controls of soil geochemistry and weathering fluxes in high-elevation ecosystems of the Rocky Mountains, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lawrence, Corey R.; Reynolds, Richard L.; Kettterer, Michael E.; Neff, Jason C.

2013-01-01

When dust inputs are large or have persisted for long periods of time, the signature of dust additions are often apparent in soils. The of dust will be greatest where the geochemical composition of dust is distinct from local sources of soil parent material. In this study the influence of dust accretion on soil geochemistry is quantified for two different soils from the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado, USA. At both study sites, dust is enriched in several trace elements relative to local rock, especially Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn. Mass-balance calculations that do not explicitly account for dust inputs indicate the accumulation of some elements in soil beyond what can be explained by weathering of local rock. Most observed elemental enrichments are explained by accounting for the long-term accretion of dust, based on modern isotopic and geochemical estimates. One notable exception is Pb, which based on mass-balance calculations and isotopic measurements may have an additional source at one of the study sites. These results suggest that dust is a major factor influencing the development of soil in these settings and is also an important control of soil weathering fluxes. After accounting for dust inputs in mass-balance calculations, Si weathering fluxes from San Juan Mountain soils are within the range observed for other temperate systems. Comparing dust inputs with mass-balanced based flux estimates suggests dust could account for as much as 50–80% of total long-term chemical weathering fluxes. These results support the notion that dust inputs may sustain chemical weathering fluxes even in relatively young continental settings. Given the widespread input of far-traveled dust, the weathering of dust is likely and important and underappreciated aspect of the global weathering engine.

Aeolian controls of soil geochemistry and weathering fluxes in high-elevation ecosystems of the Rocky Mountains, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, Corey R.; Reynolds, Richard L.; Ketterer, Michael E.; Neff, Jason C.

2013-04-01

When dust inputs are large or have persisted for long periods of time, the signature of dust additions are often apparent in soils. The of dust will be greatest where the geochemical composition of dust is distinct from local sources of soil parent material. In this study the influence of dust accretion on soil geochemistry is quantified for two different soils from the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado, USA. At both study sites, dust is enriched in several trace elements relative to local rock, especially Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn. Mass-balance calculations that do not explicitly account for dust inputs indicate the accumulation of some elements in soil beyond what can be explained by weathering of local rock. Most observed elemental enrichments are explained by accounting for the long-term accretion of dust, based on modern isotopic and geochemical estimates. One notable exception is Pb, which based on mass-balance calculations and isotopic measurements may have an additional source at one of the study sites. These results suggest that dust is a major factor influencing the development of soil in these settings and is also an important control of soil weathering fluxes. After accounting for dust inputs in mass-balance calculations, Si weathering fluxes from San Juan Mountain soils are within the range observed for other temperate systems. Comparing dust inputs with mass-balanced based flux estimates suggests dust could account for as much as 50-80% of total long-term chemical weathering fluxes. These results support the notion that dust inputs may sustain chemical weathering fluxes even in relatively young continental settings. Given the widespread input of far-traveled dust, the weathering of dust is likely and important and underappreciated aspect of the global weathering engine.

Severe storms and local weather research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

Developments in the use of space related techniques to understand storms and local weather are summarized. The observation of lightning, storm development, cloud development, mesoscale phenomena, and ageostrophic circulation are discussed. Data acquisition, analysis, and the development of improved sensor and computer systems capability are described. Signal processing and analysis and application of Doppler lidar data are discussed. Progress in numerous experiments is summarized.

AFFECTS - Advanced Forecast For Ensuring Communications Through Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bothmer, Volker

2013-04-01

Through the AFFECTS project funded by the European Union's 7th Framework Programme, European and US scientists develop an advanced proto-type space weather warning system to safeguard the operation of telecommunication and navigation systems on Earth to the threat of solar storms. The project is led by the University of Göttingen's Institute for Astrophysics and comprises worldwide leading research and academic institutions and industrial enterprises from Germany, Belgium, Ukraine, Norway and the United States. The key objectives of the AFFECTS project are: State-of-the-art analysis and modelling of the Sun-Earth chain of effects on the Earth's ionosphere and their subsequent impacts on communication systems based on multipoint space observations and complementary ground-based data. Development of a prototype space weather early warning system and reliable space weather forecasts, with specific emphasis on ionospheric applications. Dissemination of new space weather products and services to end users, the scientific community and general public. The presentation summarizes the project highlights, with special emphasis on the developed space weather forecast tools.

Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian

2010-01-01

Since 2000, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) at Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX have used a local data integration system (LDIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. The original LDIS was developed by NASA's Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU; Bauman et ai, 2004) in 1998 (Manobianco and Case 1998) and has undergone subsequent improvements. Each has benefited from three-dimensional (3-D) analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national- or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features

Weather explains high annual variation in butterfly dispersal.

PubMed

Kuussaari, Mikko; Rytteri, Susu; Heikkinen, Risto K; Heliölä, Janne; von Bagh, Peter

2016-07-27

Weather conditions fundamentally affect the activity of short-lived insects. Annual variation in weather is therefore likely to be an important determinant of their between-year variation in dispersal, but conclusive empirical studies are lacking. We studied whether the annual variation of dispersal can be explained by the flight season's weather conditions in a Clouded Apollo (Parnassius mnemosyne) metapopulation. This metapopulation was monitored using the mark-release-recapture method for 12 years. Dispersal was quantified for each monitoring year using three complementary measures: emigration rate (fraction of individuals moving between habitat patches), average residence time in the natal patch, and average distance moved. There was much variation both in dispersal and average weather conditions among the years. Weather variables significantly affected the three measures of dispersal and together with adjusting variables explained 79-91% of the variation observed in dispersal. Different weather variables became selected in the models explaining variation in three dispersal measures apparently because of the notable intercorrelations. In general, dispersal rate increased with increasing temperature, solar radiation, proportion of especially warm days, and butterfly density, and decreased with increasing cloudiness, rainfall, and wind speed. These results help to understand and model annually varying dispersal dynamics of species affected by global warming. © 2016 The Author(s).

Interaction effects between weather and space use on harvesting effort and patterns in red deer.

PubMed

Rivrud, Inger M; Meisingset, Erling L; Loe, Leif E; Mysterud, Atle

2014-12-01

Most cervid populations in Europe and North America are managed through selective harvesting, often with age- and sex-specific quotas, with a large influence on the population growth rate. Less well understood is how prevailing weather affects harvesting selectivity and off-take indirectly through changes in individual animal and hunter behavior. The behavior and movement patterns of hunters and their prey are expected to be influenced by weather conditions. Furthermore, habitat characteristics like habitat openness are also known to affect movement patterns and harvesting vulnerability, but how much such processes affect harvest composition has not been quantified. We use harvest data from red deer (Cervus elaphus) to investigate how weather and habitat characteristics affect behavioral decisions of red deer and their hunters throughout the hunting season. More specifically, we look at how sex and age class, temperature, precipitation, moon phase, and day of week affect the probability of being harvested on farmland (open habitat), hunter effort, and the overall harvest numbers. Moon phase and day of week were the strongest predictors of hunter effort and harvest numbers, with higher effort during full moon and weekends, and higher numbers during full moon. In general, the effect of fall weather conditions and habitat characteristics on harvest effort and numbers varied through the season. Yearlings showed the highest variation in the probability of being harvested on farmland through the season, but there was no effect of sex. Our study is among the first to highlight that weather may affect harvesting patterns and off-take indirectly through animal and hunter behavior, but the interaction effects of weather and space use on hunter behavior are complicated, and seem less important than hunter preference and quotas in determining hunter selection and harvest off-take. The consideration of hunter behavior is therefore key when forming management rules for sustainable harvesting.

Interaction effects between weather and space use on harvesting effort and patterns in red deer

PubMed Central

Rivrud, Inger M; Meisingset, Erling L; Loe, Leif E; Mysterud, Atle

2014-01-01

Most cervid populations in Europe and North America are managed through selective harvesting, often with age- and sex-specific quotas, with a large influence on the population growth rate. Less well understood is how prevailing weather affects harvesting selectivity and off-take indirectly through changes in individual animal and hunter behavior. The behavior and movement patterns of hunters and their prey are expected to be influenced by weather conditions. Furthermore, habitat characteristics like habitat openness are also known to affect movement patterns and harvesting vulnerability, but how much such processes affect harvest composition has not been quantified. We use harvest data from red deer (Cervus elaphus) to investigate how weather and habitat characteristics affect behavioral decisions of red deer and their hunters throughout the hunting season. More specifically, we look at how sex and age class, temperature, precipitation, moon phase, and day of week affect the probability of being harvested on farmland (open habitat), hunter effort, and the overall harvest numbers. Moon phase and day of week were the strongest predictors of hunter effort and harvest numbers, with higher effort during full moon and weekends, and higher numbers during full moon. In general, the effect of fall weather conditions and habitat characteristics on harvest effort and numbers varied through the season. Yearlings showed the highest variation in the probability of being harvested on farmland through the season, but there was no effect of sex. Our study is among the first to highlight that weather may affect harvesting patterns and off-take indirectly through animal and hunter behavior, but the interaction effects of weather and space use on hunter behavior are complicated, and seem less important than hunter preference and quotas in determining hunter selection and harvest off-take. The consideration of hunter behavior is therefore key when forming management rules for sustainable harvesting. PMID:25558369

CO2 Jets and Wind Patterns on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatcher, Chase; Aye, K.-Michael; Portyankina, Ganna

2017-10-01

In Martian winters, the poles get covered by a layer of transparent CO2 ice. In spring, sunlight causes substrate under the ice to heat up which sublimates CO2 under the ice. The accumulating gas eventually causes the ice above it to rupture and the CO2 and substrate mixture spews out like a geyser and settles back down on the surface. The shape, size, and alignment of the deposits on the surface as viewed by the HiRISE camera are related to physical processes like sublimation, weather, and wind on Mars. The jet deposits are identified by citizen scientists on a website called Planet Four. Users are shown sections of HiRISE images and asked to mark different surface features with different tools. The markings are averaged, filtered, and sorted to ensure that the data accurately represents the images. By analyzing trends in the change of different characteristics of these surface features over time, we conclude that different regions on Mars have different sublimation processes and different wind patterns. We also conclude that wind and weather patterns generally repeat from year to year, and that sediment deposits affect local weather as well.

Extremely Severe Space Weather and Geomagnetically Induced Currents in Regions with Locally Heterogeneous Ground Resistivity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fujita, Shigeru; Kataoka, Ryuho; Pulkkinen, Antti; Watari, Shinichi

2016-01-01

Large geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) triggered by extreme space weather events are now regarded as one of the serious natural threats to the modern electrified society. The risk is described in detail in High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk, A Jointly-Commissioned Summary Report of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation and the US Department of Energy's November 2009 Workshop, June 2010. For example, the March 13-14,1989 storm caused a large-scale blackout affecting about 6 million people in Quebec, Canada, and resulting in substantial economic losses in Canada and the USA (Bolduc 2002). Therefore, European and North American nations have invested in GIC research such as the Solar Shield project in the USA (Pulkkinen et al. 2009, 2015a). In 2015, the Japanese government (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, METI) acknowledged the importance of GIC research in Japan. After reviewing the serious damages caused by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, METI recognized the potential risk to the electric power grid posed by extreme space weather. During extreme events, GICs can be concerning even in mid- and low-latitude countries and have become a global issue.

Ground cloud related weather modification effects. [heavy lift launch vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, J.

1980-01-01

The principal concerns about inadvertent weather modification by the solar power satellite system rocket effluents are discussed, namely the possibility that the ground cloud might temporarily modify local weather and the cumulative effects of nearly 500 launches per year. These issues are discussed through the consideration of (1) the possible alteration of the microphysical processes of clouds in the general area due to rocket effluents and debris and cooling water entrained during the launch and (2) the direct dynamical and thermodynamical responses to the inputs of thermal energy and moisture from the rocket exhaust for given ambient meteorological conditions. The huge amount of thermal energy contained in the exhaust of the proposed launch vehicle would in some situations induce a saturated, wet convective cloud or enhance an existing convective activity. Nevertheless, the effects would be limited to the general area of the launch site. The observed long lasting high concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei produced during and after a rocket launch may appreciably affect the frequency of occurrence and persistence of fogs and haze. In view of the high mission frequency proposed for the vehicle launches, a potential exists for a cumulative effect.

Extreme weather-year sequences have nonadditive effects on environmental nitrogen losses.

PubMed

Iqbal, Javed; Necpalova, Magdalena; Archontoulis, Sotirios V; Anex, Robert P; Bourguignon, Marie; Herzmann, Daryl; Mitchell, David C; Sawyer, John E; Zhu, Qing; Castellano, Michael J

2018-01-01

The frequency and intensity of extreme weather years, characterized by abnormal precipitation and temperature, are increasing. In isolation, these years have disproportionately large effects on environmental N losses. However, the sequence of extreme weather years (e.g., wet-dry vs. dry-wet) may affect cumulative N losses. We calibrated and validated the DAYCENT ecosystem process model with a comprehensive set of biogeophysical measurements from a corn-soybean rotation managed at three N fertilizer inputs with and without a winter cover crop in Iowa, USA. Our objectives were to determine: (i) how 2-year sequences of extreme weather affect 2-year cumulative N losses across the crop rotation, and (ii) if N fertilizer management and the inclusion of a winter cover crop between corn and soybean mitigate the effect of extreme weather on N losses. Using historical weather (1951-2013), we created nine 2-year scenarios with all possible combinations of the driest ("dry"), wettest ("wet"), and average ("normal") weather years. We analyzed the effects of these scenarios following several consecutive years of relatively normal weather. Compared with the normal-normal 2-year weather scenario, 2-year extreme weather scenarios affected 2-year cumulative NO 3 - leaching (range: -93 to +290%) more than N 2 O emissions (range: -49 to +18%). The 2-year weather scenarios had nonadditive effects on N losses: compared with the normal-normal scenario, the dry-wet sequence decreased 2-year cumulative N 2 O emissions while the wet-dry sequence increased 2-year cumulative N 2 O emissions. Although dry weather decreased NO 3 - leaching and N 2 O emissions in isolation, 2-year cumulative N losses from the wet-dry scenario were greater than the dry-wet scenario. Cover crops reduced the effects of extreme weather on NO 3 - leaching but had a lesser effect on N 2 O emissions. As the frequency of extreme weather is expected to increase, these data suggest that the sequence of interannual weather patterns can be used to develop short-term mitigation strategies that manipulate N fertilizer and crop rotation to maximize crop N uptake while reducing environmental N losses. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Improving High-resolution Weather Forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with Upgraded Kain-Fritsch Cumulus Scheme

EPA Science Inventory

High-resolution weather forecasting is affected by many aspects, i.e. model initial conditions, subgrid-scale cumulus convection and cloud microphysics schemes. Recent 12km grid studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model have identified the importance of inco...

Space Weathering in the Thermal Infrared: Lessons from LRO Diviner and Next Steps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenhagen, B. T.; Lucey, P. G.; Glotch, T. D.; Arnold, J. A.; Bowles, N. E.; Donaldson Hanna, K. L.; Shirley, K. A.

2018-04-01

Global data from the LRO Diviner show that the thermal infrared is affected by space weathering. We will present and discuss hypotheses for the unanticipated space weathering dependence and next steps.

Comparison of different models for ground-level atmospheric turbulence strength (C(n)(2)) prediction with a new model according to local weather data for FSO applications.

PubMed

Arockia Bazil Raj, A; Arputha Vijaya Selvi, J; Durairaj, S

2015-02-01

Atmospheric parameters strongly affect the performance of free-space optical communication (FSOC) systems when the optical wave is propagating through the inhomogeneous turbulence transmission medium. Developing a model to get an accurate prediction of the atmospheric turbulence strength (C(n)(2)) according to meteorological parameters (weather data) becomes significant to understand the behavior of the FSOC channel during different seasons. The construction of a dedicated free-space optical link for the range of 0.5 km at an altitude of 15.25 m built at Thanjavur (Tamil Nadu) is described in this paper. The power level and beam centroid information of the received signal are measured continuously with weather data at the same time using an optoelectronic assembly and the developed weather station, respectively, and are recorded in a data-logging computer. Existing models that exhibit relatively fewer prediction errors are briefed and are selected for comparative analysis. Measured weather data (as input factors) and C(n)(2) (as a response factor) of size [177,147×4] are used for linear regression analysis and to design mathematical models more suitable in the test field. Along with the model formulation methodologies, we have presented the contributions of the input factors' individual and combined effects on the response surface and the coefficient of determination (R(2)) estimated using analysis of variance tools. An R(2) value of 98.93% is obtained using the new model, model equation V, from a confirmatory test conducted with a testing data set of size [2000×4]. In addition, the prediction accuracies of the selected and the new models are investigated during different seasons in a one-year period using the statistics of day, week-averaged, month-averaged, and seasonal-averaged diurnal Cn2 profiles, and are verified in terms of the sum of absolute error (SAE). A Cn2 prediction maximum average SAE of 2.3×10(-13)  m(-2/3) is achieved using the new model in a longer range of dynamic meteorological parameters during the different local seasons.

Estimating live fuel status by drought indices: an approach for assessing local impact of climate change on fire danger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellizzaro, Grazia; Dubrovsky, Martin; Bortolu, Sara; Ventura, Andrea; Arca, Bachisio; Masia, Pierpaolo; Duce, Pierpaolo

2014-05-01

Mediterranean shrubs are an important component of both Mediterranean vegetation communities and understorey vegetation. They also constitute the surface fuels primarily responsible for the ignition and the spread of wildland fires in Mediterranean forests. Although fire spread and behaviour are dependent on several factors, the water content of live fuel plays an important role in determining fire occurrence and spread, especially in the Mediterranean shrubland, where live fuel is often the main component of the available fuel which catches fire. According to projections on future climate, an increase in risk of summer droughts is likely to take place in Southern Europe. More prolonged drought seasons induced by climatic changes are likely to influence general flammability characteristics of fuel, affecting load distribution in vegetation strata, floristic composition, and live and dead fuel ratio. In addition, variations in precipitation and mean temperature could directly affect fuel water status, and consequently flammability, and length of critical periods of high ignition danger for Mediterranean ecosystems. The main aim of this work was to propose a methodology for evaluating possible impacts of future climate change on moisture dynamic and length of fire danger period at local scale. Specific objectives were: i) evaluating performances of meteorological drought indices in describing seasonal pattern of live fuel moisture content (LFMC), and ii) simulating the potential impacts of future climate changes on the duration of fire danger period. Measurements of LFMC seasonal pattern of three Mediterranean shrub species were performed in North Western Sardinia (Italy) for 8 years. Seasonal patterns of LFMC were compared with the Drought Code of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the Keetch-Byram Drought Index. Analysis of frequency distribution and cumulative distribution curves were carried out in order to evaluate performance of codes and to identify threshold values of indices useful to determine the end of the potential fire season due to fuel status. A weather generator linked to climate change scenarios derived from 17 available General Circulation Models (GCMs) was used to produce synthetic weather series, representing present and future climates, for four selected sites located in North Sardinia, Italy. Finally, impacts of future climate change on fire season length at local scale were simulated. Results confirmed that the projected climate scenarios over the Mediterranean area will determine an overall increase of the fire season length.

FLYSAFE, nowcasting of in flight icing supporting aircrew decision making process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drouin, A.; Le Bot, C.

2009-09-01

FLYSAFE is an Integrated Project of the 6th framework of the European Commission with the aim to improve flight safety through the development of a Next Generation Integrated Surveillance System (NGISS). The NGISS provides information to the flight crew on the three major external hazards for aviation: weather, air traffic and terrain. The NGISS has the capability of displaying data about all three hazards on a single display screen, facilitating rapid pilot appreciation of the situation by the flight crew. Weather Information Management Systems (WIMS) were developed to provide the NGISS and the flight crew with weather related information on in-flight icing, thunderstorms, wake-vortex and clear-air turbulence. These products are generated on the ground from observations and model forecasts. WIMS supply relevant information on three different scales: global, regional and local (over airport Terminal Manoeuvring Area). Within the flysafe program, around 120 hours of flight trials were performed during February 2008 and August 2008. Two aircraft were involved each with separate objectives : - to assess FLYSAFE's innovative solutions for the data-link, on-board data fusion, data-display, and data-updates during flight; - to evaluate the new weather information management systems (in flight icing and thunderstorms) using in-situ measurements recorded on board the test aircraft. In this presentation we will focus on the in-flight icing nowcasting system developed at Météo France in the framework of FLYSAFE: the local ICE WIMS. The local ICE WIMS is based on data fusion. The most relevant information for icing detection is extracted from the numerical weather prediction model, the infra-red and visible satellite imagery and the ground weather radar reflectivities. After a presentation of the local ICE WIMS, we detail the evaluation of the local ICE WIMS performed using the winter and summer flight trial data.

Grand challenges in understanding the interplay of climate and land changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liu, Shuguang; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Boysen, Lena R.; Ford, James D.; Fox, Andrew; Gallo, Kevin; Hatfield, Jerry L.; Henebry, Geoffrey M.; Huntington, Thomas G.; Liu, Zhihua; Loveland, Thomas R.; Norby, Richard J.; Sohl, Terry L.; Steiner, Allison L.; Yuan, Wenping; Zhang, Zhao; Zhao, Shuqing

2017-01-01

Half of Earth’s land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affect a myriad of land surface processes and the adaptation behaviors. This study reviews the status and major knowledge gaps in the interactions of land and atmospheric changes and present 11 grand challenge areas for the scientific research and adaptation community in the coming decade. These land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC)-related areas include 1) impacts on weather and climate, 2) carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, 3) biospheric emissions, 4) the water cycle, 5) agriculture, 6) urbanization, 7) acclimation of biogeochemical processes to climate change, 8) plant migration, 9) land-use projections, 10) model and data uncertainties, and, finally, 11) adaptation strategies. Numerous studies have demonstrated the effects of LCLUC on local to global climate and weather systems, but these putative effects vary greatly in magnitude and even sign across space, time, and scale and thus remain highly uncertain. At the same time, many challenges exist toward improved understanding of the consequences of atmospheric and climate change on land process dynamics and services. Future effort must improve the understanding of the scale-dependent, multifaceted perturbations and feedbacks between land and climate changes in both reality and models. To this end, one critical cross-disciplinary need is to systematically quantify and better understand measurement and model uncertainties. Finally, LCLUC mitigation and adaptation assessments must be strengthened to identify implementation barriers, evaluate and prioritize opportunities, and examine how decision-making processes work in specific contexts.

Space weather effects on ground based technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, T.

Space weather can affect a variety of forms of ground-based technology, usually as a result of either the direct effects of the varying geomagnetic field, or as a result of the induced electric field that accompanies such variations. Technologies affected directly by geomagnetic variations include magnetic measurements made d ringu geophysical surveys, and navigation relying on the geomagnetic field as a direction reference, a method that is particularly common in the surveying of well-bores in the oil industry. The most obvious technology affected by induced electric fields during magnetic storms is electric power transmission, where the example of the blackout in Quebec during the March 1989 magnetic storm is widely known. Additionally, space weather effects must be taken into account in the design of active cathodic protection systems on pipelines to protect them against corrosion. Long-distance telecommunication cables may also have to be designed to cope with space weather related effects. This paper reviews the effects of space weather in these different areas of ground-based technology, and provides examples of how mitigation against hazards may be achieved. (The paper does not include the effects of space weather on radio communication or satellite navigation systems).

Olivine Weathering: Abiotic Versus Biotic Processes as Possible Biosignatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Longazo, T. G.; Wentworth, S. J.; McKay, D. S.; Southam, G.; Clemett, S. J.

2001-01-01

A preliminary study to determine how abiotic versus biotic processes affect the weathering of olivine crystals. Perhaps the differences between these weathering processes could be used as biosignatures. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

When time affects space: Dispersal ability and extreme weather events determine metacommunity organization in marine sediments.

PubMed

Corte, Guilherme N; Gonçalves-Souza, Thiago; Checon, Helio H; Siegle, Eduardo; Coleman, Ross A; Amaral, A Cecília Z

2018-05-01

Community ecology has traditionally assumed that the distribution of species is mainly influenced by environmental processes. There is, however, growing evidence that environmental (habitat characteristics and biotic interactions) and spatial processes (factors that affect a local assemblage regardless of environmental conditions - typically related to dispersal and movement of species) interactively shape biological assemblages. A metacommunity, which is a set of local assemblages connected by dispersal of individuals, is spatial in nature and can be used as a straightforward approach for investigating the interactive and independent effects of both environmental and spatial processes. Here, we examined (i) how environmental and spatial processes affect the metacommunity organization of marine macroinvertebrates inhabiting the intertidal sediments of a biodiverse coastal ecosystem; (ii) whether the influence of these processes is constant through time or is affected by extreme weather events (storms); and (iii) whether the relative importance of these processes depends on the dispersal abilities of organisms. We found that macrobenthic assemblages are influenced by each of environmental and spatial variables; however, spatial processes exerted a stronger role. We also found that this influence changes through time and is modified by storms. Moreover, we observed that the influence of environmental and spatial processes varies according to the dispersal capabilities of organisms. More effective dispersers (i.e., species with planktonic larvae) are more affected by spatial processes whereas environmental variables had a stronger effect on weaker dispersers (i.e. species with low motility in larval and adult stages). These findings highlight that accounting for spatial processes and differences in species life histories is essential to improve our understanding of species distribution and coexistence patterns in intertidal soft-sediments. Furthermore, it shows that storms modify the structure of coastal assemblages. Given that the influence of spatial and environmental processes is not consistent through time, it is of utmost importance that future studies replicate sampling over different periods so the influence of temporal and stochastic factors on macrobenthic metacommunities can be better understood. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fourth National Aeronautics and Space Administration Weather and Climate Program Science Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kreins, E. R. (Editor)

1979-01-01

The NASA Weather and Climate Program has two major thrusts. The first involves the development of experimental and prototype operational satellite systems, sensors, and space facilities for monitoring and understanding the atmosphere. The second thrust involves basic scientific investigation aimed at studying the physical and chemical processes which control weather and climate. This fourth science review concentrated on the scientific research rather than the hardware development aspect of the program. These proceedings contain 65 papers covering the three general areas: severe storms and local weather research, global weather, and climate.

77 FR 53886 - February 2011 Southwest Cold Weather Event Follow-up Technical Conference; Notice of Technical...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-04

... Southwest Cold Weather Event Follow-up Technical Conference; Notice of Technical Conference Take notice that... August 16, 2011 Report on Outages and Curtailments During the Southwest Cold Weather Event of February 1... severe cold weather issues that led to rolling blackouts affecting over 4 million customers and natural...

44 CFR 15.17 - Other laws.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... SECURITY GENERAL CONDUCT AT THE MT. WEATHER EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE CENTER AND AT THE NATIONAL EMERGENCY... abolish any other Federal laws or any State and local laws and regulations applicable to Mt. Weather or...

44 CFR 15.17 - Other laws.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... SECURITY GENERAL CONDUCT AT THE MT. WEATHER EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE CENTER AND AT THE NATIONAL EMERGENCY... abolish any other Federal laws or any State and local laws and regulations applicable to Mt. Weather or...

44 CFR 15.17 - Other laws.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... SECURITY GENERAL CONDUCT AT THE MT. WEATHER EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE CENTER AND AT THE NATIONAL EMERGENCY... abolish any other Federal laws or any State and local laws and regulations applicable to Mt. Weather or...

44 CFR 15.17 - Other laws.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... SECURITY GENERAL CONDUCT AT THE MT. WEATHER EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE CENTER AND AT THE NATIONAL EMERGENCY... abolish any other Federal laws or any State and local laws and regulations applicable to Mt. Weather or...

Weathering of sulfidic shale and copper mine waste: Secondary minerals and metal cycling in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee, and North Carolina, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hammarstrom, J.M.; Seal, R.R.; Meier, A.L.; Jackson, J.C.

2003-01-01

Metal cycling via physical and chemical weathering of discrete sources (copper mines) and regional (non-point) sources (sulfide-rich shale) is evaluated by examining the mineralogy and chemistry of weathering products in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee, and North Carolina, USA. The elements in copper mine waste, secondary minerals, stream sediments, and waters that are most likely to have negative impacts on aquatic ecosystems are aluminum, copper, zinc, and arsenic because these elements locally exceed toxicity guidelines for surface waters or for stream sediments. Acid-mine drainage has not developed in streams draining inactive copper mines. Acid-rock drainage and chemical weathering processes that accompany debris flows or human disturbances of sulfidic rocks are comparable to processes that develop acid-mine drainage elsewhere. Despite the high rainfall in the mountain range, sheltered areas and intermittent dry spells provide local venues for development of secondary weathering products that can impact aquatic ecosystems.

ADAS Update and Maintainability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.

2010-01-01

Since 2000, both the National Weather Service Melbourne (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have used a local data integration system (LOIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. The original LOIS was developed by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in 1998 (Manobianco and Case 1998) and has undergone subsequent improvements. Each has benefited from three-dimensional (3-D) analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (AD AS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features. Over the years, the LDIS has become problematic to maintain since it depends on AMU-developed shell scripts that were written for an earlier version of the ADAS software. The goals of this task were to update the NWS MLB/SMG LDIS with the latest version of ADAS, incorporate new sources of observational data, and upgrade and modify the AMU-developed shell scripts written to govern the system. In addition, the previously developed ADAS graphical user interface (GUI) was updated. Operationally, these upgrades will result in more accurate depictions of the current local environment to help with short-range weather forecasting applications, while also offering an improved initialization for local versions of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model used by both groups.

Stress hormones in relation to breeding status and territory location in colonial king penguin: a role for social density?

PubMed

Viblanc, Vincent A; Gineste, Benoit; Stier, Antoine; Robin, Jean-Patrice; Groscolas, René

2014-07-01

Because glucocorticoid (stress) hormones fundamentally affect various aspects of the behaviour, life history and fitness of free-living vertebrates, there is a need to understand the environmental factors shaping their variation in natural populations. Here, we examined whether spatial heterogeneity in breeding territory quality affected the stress of colonial king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus). We assessed the effects of local climate (wind, sun and ambient temperature) and social conditions (number of neighbours, distance to neighbours) on the baseline levels of plasma total corticosterone (CORT) in 77 incubating and 42 chick-brooding birds, breeding on territories of central or peripheral colony location. We also assessed the oxidative stress status of a sub-sample of central vs. peripheral chick-brooders to determine whether chronic stress arose from breeding on specific territories. On average, we found that brooders had 55% higher CORT levels than incubators. Regardless of breeding status, central birds experienced greater social density (higher number of neighbours, shorter distance between territories) and had higher CORT levels than peripheral birds. Increasing social density positively explained 40% of the variation in CORT levels of both incubators and brooders, but the effect was more pronounced in brooders. In contrast, climate was similar among breeding territories and did not significantly affect the CORT levels of breeding birds. In brooders, oxidative stress status was not affected by local density or weather conditions. These results highlight that local heterogeneity in breeding (including social) conditions may strongly affect the stress levels of breeding seabirds. The fitness consequences of such variation remain to be investigated.

Evidence of Space Weathering Processes Across the Surface of Vesta

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pieters, Carle M.; Blewett, David T.; Gaffey, Michael; Mittlefehldt, David W.; CristinaDeSanctis, Maria; Reddy, Vishnu; Coradini, Angioletta; Nathues, Andreas; Denevi, Brett W.; Li, Jian-Yang;

77 FR 39647 - Fisheries of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and South Atlantic; Reef Fish Fishery of the Gulf of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

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...., local time, July 11, 2012. However, due to severe weather conditions in the central and northeastern..., the central and northeastern Gulf experienced severe weather conditions during the first 26 days of... less than projected. In addition to tropical storm Debby in late June, poor weather conditions...

Development of a Predictive Corrosion Model Using Locality-Specific Corrosion Indices

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-08-01

exposure data project in FY05, datasets from several other variables were needed. Specif- ically, historic data from weather stations was collected...from the weather agency closest to the sample exposure rack was collected. The distance from the weather station to the exposure rack was also noted...occurring within the first ½ mile or so of the coast. Often, the weather station will be somewhat further inland and not near the corrosion samples

Internal Physical Features of a Land Surface Model Employing a Tangent Linear Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Runhua; Cohn, Stephen E.; daSilva, Arlindo; Joiner, Joanna; Houser, Paul R.

1997-01-01

The Earth's land surface, including its biomass, is an integral part of the Earth's weather and climate system. Land surface heterogeneity, such as the type and amount of vegetative covering., has a profound effect on local weather variability and therefore on regional variations of the global climate. Surface conditions affect local weather and climate through a number of mechanisms. First, they determine the re-distribution of the net radiative energy received at the surface, through the atmosphere, from the sun. A certain fraction of this energy increases the surface ground temperature, another warms the near-surface atmosphere, and the rest evaporates surface water, which in turn creates clouds and causes precipitation. Second, they determine how much rainfall and snowmelt can be stored in the soil and how much instead runs off into waterways. Finally, surface conditions influence the near-surface concentration and distribution of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. The processes through which these mechanisms interact with the atmosphere can be modeled mathematically, to within some degree of uncertainty, on the basis of underlying physical principles. Such a land surface model provides predictive capability for surface variables including ground temperature, surface humidity, and soil moisture and temperature. This information is important for agriculture and industry, as well as for addressing fundamental scientific questions concerning global and local climate change. In this study we apply a methodology known as tangent linear modeling to help us understand more deeply, the behavior of the Mosaic land surface model, a model that has been developed over the past several years at NASA/GSFC. This methodology allows us to examine, directly and quantitatively, the dependence of prediction errors in land surface variables upon different vegetation conditions. The work also highlights the importance of accurate soil moisture information. Although surface variables are predicted imperfectly due to inherent uncertainties in the modeling process, our study suggests how satellite observations can be combined with the model, through land surface data assimilation, to improve their prediction.

Gray Wave of the Great Transformation: A Satellite View of Urbanization, Climate Change, and Food Security

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Imhoff, Marc Lee; Kamiell, Arnon Menahem

2010-01-01

Land cover change driven by human activity is profoundly affecting Earth's natural systems with impacts ranging from a loss of biological diversity to changes in regional and global climate. This change has been so pervasive and progressed so rapidly, compared to natural processes, scientists refer to it as "the great transformation". Urbanization or the 'gray wave' of land transformation is being increasingly recognized as an important process in global climate change. A hallmark of our success as a species, large urban conglomerates do in fact alter the land surface so profoundly that both local climate and the basic ecology of the landscape are affected in ways that have consequences to human health and economic well-being. Fortunately we have incredible new tools for planning and developing urban places that are both enjoyable and sustainable. A suite of Earth observing satellites is making it possible to study the interactions between urbanization, biological processes, and weather and climate. Using these Earth Observatories we are learning how urban heat islands form and potentially ameliorate them, how urbanization can affect rainfall, pollution, and surface water recharge at the local level and climate and food security globally.

Adaptation of Mesoscale Weather Models to Local Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manobianco, John T.; Taylor, Gregory E.; Case, Jonathan L.; Dianic, Allan V.; Wheeler, Mark W.; Zack, John W.; Nutter, Paul A.

2003-01-01

Methodologies have been developed for (1) configuring mesoscale numerical weather-prediction models for execution on high-performance computer workstations to make short-range weather forecasts for the vicinity of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and (2) evaluating the performances of the models as configured. These methodologies have been implemented as part of a continuing effort to improve weather forecasting in support of operations of the U.S. space program. The models, methodologies, and results of the evaluations also have potential value for commercial users who could benefit from tailoring their operations and/or marketing strategies based on accurate predictions of local weather. More specifically, the purpose of developing the methodologies for configuring the models to run on computers at KSC and CCAFS is to provide accurate forecasts of winds, temperature, and such specific thunderstorm-related phenomena as lightning and precipitation. The purpose of developing the evaluation methodologies is to maximize the utility of the models by providing users with assessments of the capabilities and limitations of the models. The models used in this effort thus far include the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS), the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Eta Model ( Eta for short). The configuration of the MASS and RAMS is designed to run the models at very high spatial resolution and incorporate local data to resolve fine-scale weather features. Model preprocessors were modified to incorporate surface, ship, buoy, and rawinsonde data as well as data from local wind towers, wind profilers, and conventional or Doppler radars. The overall evaluation of the MASS, Eta, and RAMS was designed to assess the utility of these mesoscale models for satisfying the weather-forecasting needs of the U.S. space program. The evaluation methodology includes objective and subjective verification methodologies. Objective (e.g., statistical) verification of point forecasts is a stringent measure of model performance, but when used alone, it is not usually sufficient for quantifying the value of the overall contribution of the model to the weather-forecasting process. This is especially true for mesoscale models with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution that may be capable of predicting meteorologically consistent, though not necessarily accurate, fine-scale weather phenomena. Therefore, subjective (phenomenological) evaluation, focusing on selected case studies and specific weather features, such as sea breezes and precipitation, has been performed to help quantify the added value that cannot be inferred solely from objective evaluation.

Local weather is associated with rates of online searches for musculoskeletal pain symptoms.

PubMed

Telfer, Scott; Obradovich, Nick

2017-01-01

Weather conditions are commonly believed to influence musculoskeletal pain, however the evidence for this is mixed. This study aimed to examine the relationship between local meteorological conditions and online search trends for terms related to knee pain, hip pain, and arthritis. Five years of relative online search volumes for these terms were obtained for the 50 most populous cities in the contiguous United States, along with corresponding local weather data for temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, and precipitation. Methods from the climate econometrics literature were used to assess the casual impact of these meteorological variables on the relative volumes of searches for pain. For temperatures between -5°C and 30°C, search volumes for hip pain increased by 12 index points, and knee pain increased by 18 index points. Precipitation had a negative effect on search volumes for these terms. At temperatures >30°C, search volumes for arthritis related pain decreased by 7 index points. These patterns were not seen for pain searches unrelated to the musculoskeletal system. In summary, selected local weather conditions are significantly associated with online search volumes for specific musculoskeletal pain symptoms. We believe the predominate driver for this to be the relative changes in physical activity levels associated with meteorological conditions.

No evidence of the effect of extreme weather events on annual occurrence of four groups of ectothermic species.

PubMed

Malinowska, Agnieszka H; van Strien, Arco J; Verboom, Jana; WallisdeVries, Michiel F; Opdam, Paul

2014-01-01

Weather extremes may have strong effects on biodiversity, as known from theoretical and modelling studies. Predicted negative effects of increased weather variation are found only for a few species, mostly plants and birds in empirical studies. Therefore, we investigated correlations between weather variability and patterns in occupancy, local colonisations and local extinctions (metapopulation metrics) across four groups of ectotherms: Odonata, Orthoptera, Lepidoptera, and Reptilia. We analysed data of 134 species on a 1×1 km-grid base, collected in the last 20 years from the Netherlands, combining standardised data and opportunistic data. We applied dynamic site-occupancy models and used the results as input for analyses of (i) trends in distribution patterns, (ii) the effect of temperature on colonisation and persistence probability, and (iii) the effect of years with extreme weather on all the three metapopulation metrics. All groups, except butterflies, showed more positive than negative trends in metapopulation metrics. We did not find evidence that the probability of colonisation or persistence increases with temperature nor that extreme weather events are reflected in higher extinction risks. We could not prove that weather extremes have visible and consistent negative effects on ectothermic species in temperate northern hemisphere. These findings do not confirm the general prediction that increased weather variability imperils biodiversity. We conclude that weather extremes might not be ecologically relevant for the majority of species. Populations might be buffered against weather variation (e.g. by habitat heterogeneity), or other factors might be masking the effects (e.g. availability and quality of habitat). Consequently, we postulate that weather extremes have less, or different, impact in real world metapopulations than theory and models suggest.

No Evidence of the Effect of Extreme Weather Events on Annual Occurrence of Four Groups of Ectothermic Species

PubMed Central

Malinowska, Agnieszka H.; van Strien, Arco J.; Verboom, Jana; WallisdeVries, Michiel F.; Opdam, Paul

2014-01-01

Weather extremes may have strong effects on biodiversity, as known from theoretical and modelling studies. Predicted negative effects of increased weather variation are found only for a few species, mostly plants and birds in empirical studies. Therefore, we investigated correlations between weather variability and patterns in occupancy, local colonisations and local extinctions (metapopulation metrics) across four groups of ectotherms: Odonata, Orthoptera, Lepidoptera, and Reptilia. We analysed data of 134 species on a 1×1 km-grid base, collected in the last 20 years from the Netherlands, combining standardised data and opportunistic data. We applied dynamic site-occupancy models and used the results as input for analyses of (i) trends in distribution patterns, (ii) the effect of temperature on colonisation and persistence probability, and (iii) the effect of years with extreme weather on all the three metapopulation metrics. All groups, except butterflies, showed more positive than negative trends in metapopulation metrics. We did not find evidence that the probability of colonisation or persistence increases with temperature nor that extreme weather events are reflected in higher extinction risks. We could not prove that weather extremes have visible and consistent negative effects on ectothermic species in temperate northern hemisphere. These findings do not confirm the general prediction that increased weather variability imperils biodiversity. We conclude that weather extremes might not be ecologically relevant for the majority of species. Populations might be buffered against weather variation (e.g. by habitat heterogeneity), or other factors might be masking the effects (e.g. availability and quality of habitat). Consequently, we postulate that weather extremes have less, or different, impact in real world metapopulations than theory and models suggest. PMID:25330414

Everything You've Always Wanted to Know About Weather But Were Afraid to Ask.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abbott, Verlin M.

This unit, designed for primary grades of the elementary schools, focuses on weather and is divided into the following five major parts: Weather Affects Man and His Environment; Air, Wind, and Weather; Clouds and Humidity; Precipitation; and Micro-Environments. Each part includes a list of the concepts to be taught, the behavioral objectives and…

Sensitivity of boundary layer variables to PBL schemes over the central Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, L.; Liu, H.; Wang, L.; Du, Q.; Liu, Y.

2017-12-01

Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) parameterization schemes play critical role in numerical weather prediction and research. They describe physical processes associated with the momentum, heat and humidity exchange between land surface and atmosphere. In this study, two non-local (YSU and ACM2) and two local (MYJ and BouLac) planetary boundary layer parameterization schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model have been tested over the central Tibetan Plateau regarding of their capability to model boundary layer parameters relevant for surface energy exchange. The model performance has been evaluated against measurements from the Third Tibetan Plateau atmospheric scientific experiment (TIPEX-III). Simulated meteorological parameters and turbulence fluxes have been compared with observations through standard statistical measures. Model results show acceptable behavior, but no particular scheme produces best performance for all locations and parameters. All PBL schemes underestimate near surface air temperatures over the Tibetan Plateau. By investigating the surface energy budget components, the results suggest that downward longwave radiation and sensible heat flux are the main factors causing the lower near surface temperature. Because the downward longwave radiation and sensible heat flux are respectively affected by atmosphere moisture and land-atmosphere coupling, improvements in water vapor distribution and land-atmosphere energy exchange is meaningful for better presentation of PBL physical processes over the central Tibetan Plateau.

Clarus : concept of operations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-10-01

The Clarus Initiative establishes a vision for the leveraging of local and regional road/route weather observations to serve a greater community and enhance 21st century transportation operations. Its goal is to provide broader weather information su...

NASA/MSFC FY-80 Atmospheric Processes Research Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, R. E. (Compiler)

1980-01-01

Three general areas of research were discussed: Global Weather, Upper Atmosphere, and Severe Storms and Local Weather. Research project summaries, in narrative outline form, stating objectives, significant accomplishments, and recommendations for future research are presented.

NASA/MSFC FY-81 Atmospheric Processes Research Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, R. E. (Compiler)

1981-01-01

Progress in ongoing research programs and future plans for satellite investigations into global weather, upper atmospheric phenomena, and severe storms and local weather are summarized. Principle investigators and publications since June 1980 are listed.

Impacts from urban water systems on receiving waters - How to account for severe wet-weather events in LCA?

PubMed

Risch, Eva; Gasperi, Johnny; Gromaire, Marie-Christine; Chebbo, Ghassan; Azimi, Sam; Rocher, Vincent; Roux, Philippe; Rosenbaum, Ralph K; Sinfort, Carole

2018-01-01

Sewage systems are a vital part of the urban infrastructure in most cities. They provide drainage, which protects public health, prevents the flooding of property and protects the water environment around urban areas. On some occasions sewers will overflow into the water environment during heavy rain potentially causing unacceptable impacts from releases of untreated sewage into the environment. In typical Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies of urban wastewater systems (UWS), average dry-weather conditions are modelled while wet-weather flows from UWS, presenting a high temporal variability, are not currently accounted for. In this context, the loads from several storm events could be important contributors to the impact categories freshwater eutrophication and ecotoxicity. In this study we investigated the contributions of these wet-weather-induced discharges relative to average dry-weather conditions in the life cycle inventory for UWS. In collaboration with the Paris public sanitation service (SIAAP) and Observatory of Urban Pollutants (OPUR) program researchers, this work aimed at identifying and comparing contributing flows from the UWS in the Paris area by a selection of routine wastewater parameters and priority pollutants. This collected data is organized according to archetypal weather days during a reference year. Then, for each archetypal weather day and its associated flows to the receiving river waters (Seine), the parameters of pollutant loads (statistical distribution of concentrations and volumes) were determined. The resulting inventory flows (i.e. the potential loads from the UWS) were used as LCA input data to assess the associated impacts. This allowed investigating the relative importance of episodic wet-weather versus "continuous" dry-weather loads with a probabilistic approach to account for pollutant variability within the urban flows. The analysis at the scale of one year showed that storm events are significant contributors to the impacts of freshwater eutrophication and ecotoxicity compared to those arising from treated effluents. At the rain event scale the wet-weather contributions to these impacts are even more significant, accounting for example for up to 62% of the total impact on freshwater ecotoxicity. This also allowed investigating and discussing the ecotoxicity contribution of each class of pollutants among the broad range of inventoried substances. Finally, with such significant contributions of pollutant loads and associated impacts from wet-weather events, further research is required to better include temporally-differentiated emissions when evaluating eutrophication and ecotoxicity. This will provide a better understanding of how the performance of an UWS system affects the receiving environment for given local weather conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ICPP: Approach for Understanding Complexity of Plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, Tetsuya

2000-10-01

In this talk I wish to present an IT system that could promote Science of Complexity. In order to deal with a seemingly `complex' phenomenon, which means `beyond analytical manipulation', computer simulation is a viable powerful tool. However, complexity implies a concept beyond the horizon of reductionism. Therefore, rather than simply solving a complex phenomenon for a given boundary condition, one must establish an intelligent way of attacking mutual evolution of a system and its environment. NIFS-TCSC has been developing a prototype system that consists of supercomputers, virtual reality devices and high-speed network system. Let us explain this by picking up a global atmospheric circulation group, global oceanic circulation group and local weather prediction group. Local weather prediction group predicts the local change of the weather such as the creation of cloud and rain in the near future under the global conditions obtained by the global atmospheric and ocean groups. The global groups run simulations by modifying the local heat source/sink evaluated by the local weather prediction and then obtain the global conditions in the next time step. By repeating such a feedback performance one can predict the mutual evolution of the local system and its environment. Mutual information exchanges among multiple groups are carried out instantaneously by the networked common virtual reality space in which 3-D global and local images of the atmospheric and oceanic circulation and the cloud and rain maps are arbitrarily manipulated by any of the groups and commonly viewed. The present networking system has a great advantage that any simulation groups can freely and arbitrarily change their alignment, so that mutual evolution of any stratum system can become tractable by utilizing this network system.

Integrated Decision Support for Global Environmental Change Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, S.; Cantrell, S.; Higgins, G. J.; Marshall, J.; VanWijngaarden, F.

2011-12-01

Environmental changes are happening now that has caused concern in many parts of the world; particularly vulnerable are the countries and communities with limited resources and with natural environments that are more susceptible to climate change impacts. Global leaders are concerned about the observed phenomena and events such as Amazon deforestation, shifting monsoon patterns affecting agriculture in the mountain slopes of Peru, floods in Pakistan, water shortages in Middle East, droughts impacting water supplies and wildlife migration in Africa, and sea level rise impacts on low lying coastal communities in Bangladesh. These environmental changes are likely to get exacerbated as the temperatures rise, the weather and climate patterns change, and sea level rise continues. Large populations and billions of dollars of infrastructure could be affected. At Northrop Grumman, we have developed an integrated decision support framework for providing necessary information to stakeholders and planners to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change at the regional and local levels. This integrated approach takes into account assimilation and exploitation of large and disparate weather and climate data sets, regional downscaling (dynamic and statistical), uncertainty quantification and reduction, and a synthesis of scientific data with demographic and economic data to generate actionable information for the stakeholders and decision makers. Utilizing a flexible service oriented architecture and state-of-the-art visualization techniques, this information can be delivered via tailored GIS portals to meet diverse set of user needs and expectations. This integrated approach can be applied to regional and local risk assessments, predictions and decadal projections, and proactive adaptation planning for vulnerable communities. In this paper we will describe this comprehensive decision support approach with selected applications and case studies to illustrate how this system of systems approach could help the local governments and concerned institutions worldwide to adapt to gradually changing environmental conditions as well as manage impacts of extreme events such as droughts, floods, heat waves, wildfires, hurricanes, and storm surges.

Decision aids for multiple-decision disease management as affected by weather input errors.

PubMed

Pfender, W F; Gent, D H; Mahaffee, W F; Coop, L B; Fox, A D

2011-06-01

Many disease management decision support systems (DSSs) rely, exclusively or in part, on weather inputs to calculate an indicator for disease hazard. Error in the weather inputs, typically due to forecasting, interpolation, or estimation from off-site sources, may affect model calculations and management decision recommendations. The extent to which errors in weather inputs affect the quality of the final management outcome depends on a number of aspects of the disease management context, including whether management consists of a single dichotomous decision, or of a multi-decision process extending over the cropping season(s). Decision aids for multi-decision disease management typically are based on simple or complex algorithms of weather data which may be accumulated over several days or weeks. It is difficult to quantify accuracy of multi-decision DSSs due to temporally overlapping disease events, existence of more than one solution to optimizing the outcome, opportunities to take later recourse to modify earlier decisions, and the ongoing, complex decision process in which the DSS is only one component. One approach to assessing importance of weather input errors is to conduct an error analysis in which the DSS outcome from high-quality weather data is compared with that from weather data with various levels of bias and/or variance from the original data. We illustrate this analytical approach for two types of DSS, an infection risk index for hop powdery mildew and a simulation model for grass stem rust. Further exploration of analysis methods is needed to address problems associated with assessing uncertainty in multi-decision DSSs.

Weather assessment and forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

Data management program activities centered around the analyses of selected far-term Office of Applications (OA) objectives, with the intent of determining if significant data-related problems would be encountered and if so what alternative solutions would be possible. Three far-term (1985 and beyond) OA objectives selected for analyses as having potential significant data problems were large-scale weather forecasting, local weather and severe storms forecasting, and global marine weather forecasting. An overview of general weather forecasting activities and their implications upon the ground based data system is provided. Selected topics were specifically oriented to the use of satellites.

Mountain ranges, climate and weathering. Do orogens strengthen or weaken the silicate weathering carbon sink?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maffre, Pierre; Ladant, Jean-Baptiste; Moquet, Jean-Sébastien; Carretier, Sébastien; Labat, David; Goddéris, Yves

2018-07-01

The role of mountains in the geological evolution of the carbon cycle has been intensively debated for the last decades. Mountains are thought to increase the local physical erosion, which in turns promotes silicate weathering, organic carbon transport and burial, and release of sulfuric acid by dissolution of sulfides. In this contribution, we explore the impact of mountain ranges on silicate weathering. Mountains modify the global pattern of atmospheric circulation as well as the local erosion conditions. Using an IPCC-class climate model, we first estimate the climatic impact of mountains by comparing the present day climate with the climate when all the continents are assumed to be flat. We then use these climate output to calculate weathering changes when mountains are present or absent, using standard expression for physical erosion and a 1D vertical model for rock weathering. We found that large-scale climate changes and enhanced rock supply by erosion due to mountain uplift have opposite effect, with similar orders of magnitude. A thorough testing of the weathering model parameters by data-model comparison shows that best-fit parameterizations lead to a decrease of weathering rate in the absence of mountain by about 20%. However, we demonstrate that solutions predicting an increase in weathering in the absence of mountain cannot be excluded. A clear discrimination between the solutions predicting an increase or a decrease in global weathering is pending on the improvement of the existing global databases for silicate weathering. Nevertheless, imposing a constant and homogeneous erosion rate for models without relief, we found that weathering decrease becomes unequivocal for very low erosion rates (below 10 t/km2/yr). We conclude that further monitoring of continental silicate weathering should be performed with a spatial distribution allowing to discriminate between the various continental landscapes (mountains, plains …).

Differences in Meteorological Conditions between Days with Persistent and Non-Persistent Pollution in Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, Ting; Wu, Renguang; Huang, Gang

2018-02-01

We compared the regional synoptic patterns and local meteorological conditions during persistent and non-persistent pollution events in Beijing using US NCEP-Department of Energy reanalysis outputs and observations from meteorological stations. The analysis focused on the impacts of high-frequency (period < 90 days) variations in meteorological conditions on persistent pollution events (those lasting for at least 3 days). Persistent pollution events tended to occur in association with slow-moving weather systems producing stagnant weather conditions, whereas rapidly moving weather systems caused a dramatic change in the local weather conditions so that the pollution event was short-lived. Although Beijing was under the influence of anomalous southerly winds in all four seasons during pollution events, notable differences were identified in the regional patterns of sea-level pressure and local anomalies in relative humidity among persistent pollution events in different seasons. A region of lower pressure was present to the north of Beijing in spring, fall, and winter, whereas regions of lower and higher pressures were observed northwest and southeast of Beijing, respectively, in summer. The relative humidity near Beijing was higher in fall and winter, but lower in spring and summer. These differences may explain the seasonal dependence of the relationship between air pollution and the local meteorological variables. Our analysis showed that the temperature inversion in the lower troposphere played an important part in the occurrence of air pollution under stagnant weather conditions. Some results from this study are based on a limited number of events and thus require validation using more data.

Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian

2010-01-01

Since 2000, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have used a local data integration system (LDIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. Each has benefited from 3-dimensional analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national- or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive and complete understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features. Recent efforts have been undertaken to update the LDIS through the formal tasking process of NASA's Applied Meteorology Unit. The goals include upgrading LDIS with the latest version of ADAS, incorporating new sources of observational data, and making adjustments to shell scripts written to govern the system. A series of scripts run a complete modeling system consisting of the preprocessing step, the main model integration, and the post-processing step. The preprocessing step prepares the terrain, surface characteristics data sets, and the objective analysis for model initialization. Data ingested through ADAS include (but are not limited to) Level II Weather Surveillance Radar- 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from six Florida radars, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) visible and infrared satellite imagery, surface and upper air observations throughout Florida from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division/Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS), as well as the Kennedy Space Center ICape Canaveral Air Force Station wind tower network. The scripts provide NWS MLB and SMG with several options for setting a desirable runtime configuration of the LDIS to account for adjustments in grid spacing, domain location, choice of observational data sources, and selection of background model fields, among others. The utility of an improved LDIS will be demonstrated through postanalysis warm and cool season case studies that compare high-resolution model output with and without the ADAS analyses. Operationally, these upgrades will result in more accurate depictions of the current local environment to help with short-range weather forecasting applications, while also offering an improved initialization for local versions of the Weather Research and Forecasting model.

Meteorological tools in support to the railway security system on the Calabria region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laviola, Sante; Gabriele, Salvatore; Iovine, Giulio; Baldini, Luca; Chiravalloti, Francesco; Federico, Stefano; Miglietta, Marcello Mario; Milani, Lisa; Procopio, Antonio; Roberto, Nicoletta; Tiesi, Alessandro; Agostino, Mario; Niccoli, Raffaele; Stassi, Sergio; Rago, Valeria

2017-04-01

RAMSES (RAilway Meteorological SEcurity System) is a pilot project co-funded by the Italian Railway Company - RFI S.p.A. and conceived for the mitigation of the hydrological risk along the Calabria railways. RAMSES aims at improving the forecast of very short life-cycle convection systems, responsible of intense and localized rainfalls affecting small catchment areas, which are often underestimated by the numerical weather models and even non-adequately detected by the network of sparse raingauges. The RAMSES operational design is based on a synergistic and integrated architecture, providing a series of information able to identify the most active convective cells and monitoring their evolution in terms of vertical structure, rain intensity and geo-hydrological effects at ground (debris flow, landslides, collapses of bridges, erosion of the ballast). The RAMSES meteorological component is designed to identify and track the short-term evolution (15-60 min) of convective cells, by means of imaging techniques based on dual-polarization weather radar and Meteosat data. In support of this quasi-real time analysis, the numerical model WRF provides the weather forecast at 3-6 hours range by ingesting, through the assimilation system LAPS, the observational data (rain gauges, ground weather stations, radar, satellites) in order to improve the initial condition. Finally, the hydraulic flow modeling is used to assess the ground effects in terms of landslide susceptibility, rainfall-runoff intensity, debris impact on the drainage network and evaluate of risk along the railway track.

Ozone trends and their relationship to characteristic weather patterns.

PubMed

Austin, Elena; Zanobetti, Antonella; Coull, Brent; Schwartz, Joel; Gold, Diane R; Koutrakis, Petros

2015-01-01

Local trends in ozone concentration may differ by meteorological conditions. Furthermore, the trends occurring at the extremes of the Ozone distribution are often not reported even though these may be very different than the trend observed at the mean or median and they may be more relevant to health outcomes. Classify days of observation over a 16-year period into broad categories that capture salient daily local weather characteristics. Determine the rate of change in mean and median O3 concentrations within these different categories to assess how concentration trends are impacted by daily weather. Further examine if trends vary for observations in the extremes of the O3 distribution. We used k-means clustering to categorize days of observation based on the maximum daily temperature, standard deviation of daily temperature, mean daily ground level wind speed, mean daily water vapor pressure and mean daily sea-level barometric pressure. The five cluster solution was determined to be the appropriate one based on cluster diagnostics and cluster interpretability. Trends in cluster frequency and pollution trends within clusters were modeled using Poisson regression with penalized splines as well as quantile regression. There were five characteristic groupings identified. The frequency of days with large standard deviations in hourly temperature decreased over the observation period, whereas the frequency of warmer days with smaller deviations in temperature increased. O3 trends were significantly different within the different weather groupings. Furthermore, the rate of O3 change for the 95th percentile and 5th percentile was significantly different than the rate of change of the median for several of the weather categories.We found that O3 trends vary between different characteristic local weather patterns. O3 trends were significantly different between the different weather groupings suggesting an important interaction between changes in prevailing weather conditions and O3 concentration.

Changes in Extreme Events and the Potential Impacts on National Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, J.

2017-12-01

Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socio-economic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for changes in the future. Some of the extreme events that have already changed are heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surge, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local intricacies of societal and environmental factors that influences the level of exposure. The goal of this presentation is to discuss the national security implications of changes in extreme weather events and demonstrate how changes in extremes can lead to a host cascading issues. To illustrate this point, this presentation will provide examples of the various pathways that extreme events can increase disease burden and cause economic stress.

A framework to assess the impacts of Climate Change for different hazards at local and regional scale through probabilistic multi-model approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercogliano, P.; Reder, A.; Rianna, G.

2017-12-01

Extreme weather events (EWEs) are projected to be more frequent and severe across the globe because of global warming. This poses challenging problems for critical infrastructures (CIs) which can be dramatically affected by EWEs needing adaptation countermeasures againts changing climate conditions. In this work, we present the main results achieved in the framework of the FP7-European project INTACT aimed at analyzing the resilience of CIs against shocks and stresses due to the climate changes. To identify variations in the hazard induced by climate change, appropriate Extreme Weather Indicators (EWIs) are defined for several case studies and different approaches are analyzed to obtain local climate projections. The different approaches, with increasing refinement depending on local information available and methodologies selected, are investigated considering raw versus bias corrected data and weighted or equiprobable ensemble mean projections given by the regional climate models within the Euro-CORDEX program. Specifically, this work focuses on two case studies selected from the five proposed within the INTACT project and for which local station data are available: • rainfall-induced landslide affecting Campania region (Southern Italy) with a special view on the Nocera municipality; • storms and heavy rainfall/winds in port of Rotterdam (Netherlands). In general, our results show a small sensitivity to the weighting approach and a large sensitivity to bias-correction in the future projections. For landslides in Campania region, the Euro-CORDEX simulations projected a generalized worsening of the safety conditions depending on the scenario (RCP4.5/8.5) and period (2011-2040/2041-2070/2071-2100) considered. For the port of Rotterdam, the Euro-CORDEX simulations projected an increment in the intense events of daily and weekly precipitation, also in this case depending on the scenario and period considered. Considering framework, methodologies and results, the activities developed within the INTACT project, also through an intense effort of knowledge co-production between researchers and stakeholders, posed a theoretical-based starting point for CI owners, operators and protection policy makers for the setup of protection systems against present and future climatic hazard features.

Decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence over China during the past 50 years.

PubMed

Zhang, Qinghong; Ni, Xiang; Zhang, Fuqing

2017-02-17

Understanding the trend of localized severe weather under the changing climate is of great significance but remains challenging which is at least partially due to the lack of persistent and homogeneous severe weather observations at climate scales while the detailed physical processes of severe weather cannot be resolved in global climate models. Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50% from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China.

Decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence over China during the past 50 years

PubMed Central

Zhang, Qinghong; Ni, Xiang; Zhang, Fuqing

2017-01-01

Understanding the trend of localized severe weather under the changing climate is of great significance but remains challenging which is at least partially due to the lack of persistent and homogeneous severe weather observations at climate scales while the detailed physical processes of severe weather cannot be resolved in global climate models. Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50% from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China. PMID:28211465

Decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence over China during the past 50 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qinghong; Ni, Xiang; Zhang, Fuqing

2017-04-01

Understanding the trend of localized severe weather under the changing climate is of great significance but remains challenging which is at least partially due to the lack of persistent and homogeneous severe weather observations at climate scales while the detailed physical processes of severe weather cannot be resolved in global climate models. Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50% from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China.

Decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence over China during the past 50 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qinghong; Ni, Xiang; Zhang, Fuqing

2017-02-01

Understanding the trend of localized severe weather under the changing climate is of great significance but remains challenging which is at least partially due to the lack of persistent and homogeneous severe weather observations at climate scales while the detailed physical processes of severe weather cannot be resolved in global climate models. Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50% from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China.

Local finite-amplitude wave activity as an objective diagnostic of midlatitude extreme weather

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Gang; Lu, Jian; Burrows, Alex D.

Midlatitude extreme weather events are responsible for a large part of climate related damage, yet our understanding of these extreme events is limited, partly due to the lack of a theoretical basis for midlatitude extreme weather. In this letter, the local finite-amplitude wave activity (LWA) of Huang and Nakamura [2015] is introduced as a diagnostic of the 500-hPa geopotential height (Z500) to characterizing midlatitude weather events. It is found that the LWA climatology and its variability associated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) agree broadly with the previously reported blocking frequency in literature. There is a strong seasonal and spatial dependencemore » in the trend13 s of LWA in recent decades. While there is no observational evidence for a hemispheric-scale increase in wave amplitude, robust trends in wave activity can be identified at the regional scales, with important implications for regional climate change.« less

Topographic and fire weather controls of fire refugia in forested ecosystems of northwestern North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krawchuk, Meg A.; Haire, Sandra L.; Coop, Jonathan D.; Parisien, Marc-Andre; Whitman, Ellen; Chong, Geneva W.; Miller, Carol

2016-01-01

for seven study fires that burned in conifer-dominated forested landscapes of the Western Cordillera of Canada between 2001 and 2014. We fit nine models, each for distinct levels of fire weather and terrain ruggedness. Our framework revealed that the predictability and abundance of fire refugia varied among these environmental settings. We observed highest predictability under moderate fire weather conditions and moderate terrain ruggedness (ROC-AUC = 0.77), and lowest predictability in flatter landscapes and under high fire weather conditions (ROC-AUC = 0.63–0.68). Catchment slope, local aspect, relative position, topographic wetness, topographic convergence, and local slope all contributed to discriminating where refugia occur but the relative importance of these topographic controls differed among environments. Our framework allows us to characterize the predictability of contemporary fire refugia across multiple environmental settings and provides important insights for ecosystem resilience, wildfire management, conservation planning, and climate change adaptation.

Intense air-sea exchanges and heavy orographic precipitation over Italy: The role of Adriatic sea surface temperature uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stocchi, Paolo; Davolio, Silvio

2017-11-01

Strong and persistent low-level winds blowing over the Adriatic basin are often associated with intense precipitation events over Italy. Typically, in case of moist southeasterly wind (Sirocco), rainfall affects northeastern Italy and the Alpine chain, while with cold northeasterly currents (Bora) precipitations are localized along the eastern slopes of the Apennines and central Italy coastal areas. These events are favoured by intense air-sea interactions and it is reasonable to hypothesize that the Adriatic sea surface temperature (SST) can affect the amount and location of precipitation. High-resolution simulations of different Bora and Sirocco events leading to severe precipitation are performed using a convection-permitting model (MOLOCH). Sensitivity experiments varying the SST initialization field are performed with the aim of evaluating the impact of SST uncertainty on precipitation forecasts, which is a relevant topic for operational weather predictions, especially at local scales. Moreover, diagnostic tools to compute water vapour fluxes across the Italian coast and atmospheric water budget over the Adriatic Sea have been developed and applied in order to characterize the air mass that feeds the precipitating systems. Finally, the investigation of the processes through which the SST influences location and intensity of heavy precipitation allows to gain a better understanding on mechanisms conducive to severe weather in the Mediterranean area and in the Adriatic basin in particular. Results show that the effect of the Adriatic SST (uncertainty) on precipitation is complex and can vary considerably among different events. For both Bora and Sirocco events, SST does not influence markedly the atmospheric water budget or the degree of moistening of air that flows over the Adriatic Sea. SST mainly affects the stability of the atmospheric boundary layer, thus influencing the flow dynamics and the orographic flow regime, and in turn, the precipitation pattern.

Impacts of space weather events on the structure of the upper atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Y.; Mahaffy, P. R.; Benna, M.; Elrod, M. K.

2017-12-01

Due to the absence of the intrinsic magnetic field, Mars' upper atmosphere is vulnerable to the solar wind, which directly strips away the Martian upper atmosphere via various mechanisms, resulting in interesting global phenomena that are observable. The Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) has observed the responses of the upper atmosphere such as Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) and Solar flare events spanning from November 2014 to the present. A comprehensive set of observations taken by the MAVEN instrument package enables the better characterization of the thermospheric and ionospheric behavior affected by various space weather events. The observed impacts include changes in the upper atmospheric and ionospheric density and temperature, enhancements of atmospheric loss rate of ions and neutrals, and changes in important boundary layers. The measurements by plasma and field instruments allows the upstream monitoring of the solar EUV, solar energetic particles, and Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) simultaneously and provide additional information of the near-Mars space weather disturbances. In addition, at low altitudes near the periapsis of the spacecraft, the simultaneous measurements of the magnetic field and properties of the thermosphere and ionosphere allow the analysis of the effects of the local crustal magnetic fields. Here, adding to the reported MAVEN observations of the space weather impacts at Mars, we analyze the responses of the upper atmosphere to the mars-impacting space weather events observed by MAVEN. We focus mainly on the responses of the density and temperature structures, which in turn allow us to examine the effects on the important atmospheric layers such as the M2 layer and transition region from the thermosphere to exosphere.

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.; Hoeth, Brian; Blottman, Peter F.

2007-01-01

Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation at the Shuttle Landing Facility is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF5), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. This study specifically addresses the skill of different model configurations in forecasting warm season convective initiation. Numerous factors influence the development of convection over the Florida peninsula. These factors include sea breezes, river and lake breezes, the prevailing low-level flow, and convergent flow due to convex coastlines that enhance the sea breeze. The interaction of these processes produces the warm season convective patterns seen over the Florida peninsula. However, warm season convection remains one of the most poorly forecast meteorological parameters. To determine which configuration options are best to address this specific forecast concern, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which has two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) was employed. In addition to the two dynamical cores, there are also two options for a "hot-start" initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS; McGinley 1995) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS; Brewster 1996). Both LAPS and ADAS are 3- dimensional weather analysis systems that integrate multiple meteorological data sources into one consistent analysis over the user's domain of interest. This allows mesoscale models to benefit from the addition of highresolution data sources. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, provides SMG and MLB with considerable flexibility as well as challenges. It is the goal of this study to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation.

A mathematical analysis of the Janus combat simulation weather effects models and sensitivity analysis of sky-to-ground brightness ratio on target detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shorts, Vincient F.

1994-09-01

The Janus combat simulation offers the user a wide variety of weather effects options to employ during the execution of any simulation run, which can directly influence detection of opposing forces. Realistic weather effects are required if the simulation is to accurately reproduce 'real world' results. This thesis examines the mathematics of the Janus weather effects models. A weather effect option in Janus is the sky-to-ground brightness ratio (SGR). SGR affects an optical sensor's ability to detect targets. It is a measure of the sun angle in relation to the horizon. A review of the derivation of SGR is performed and an analysis of SGR's affect on the number of optical detections and detection ranges is performed using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) search scenario. For comparison, the UAV's are equipped with a combination of optical and thermal sensors.

Airport Remote Tower Sensor Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maluf, David A.; Gawdiak, Yuri; Leidichj, Christopher; Papasin, Richard; Tran, Peter B.; Bass, Kevin

2006-01-01

Networks of video cameras, meteorological sensors, and ancillary electronic equipment are under development in collaboration among NASA Ames Research Center, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). These networks are to be established at and near airports to provide real-time information on local weather conditions that affect aircraft approaches and landings. The prototype network is an airport-approach-zone camera system (AAZCS), which has been deployed at San Francisco International Airport (SFO) and San Carlos Airport (SQL). The AAZCS includes remotely controlled color video cameras located on top of SFO and SQL air-traffic control towers. The cameras are controlled by the NOAA Center Weather Service Unit located at the Oakland Air Route Traffic Control Center and are accessible via a secure Web site. The AAZCS cameras can be zoomed and can be panned and tilted to cover a field of view 220 wide. The NOAA observer can see the sky condition as it is changing, thereby making possible a real-time evaluation of the conditions along the approach zones of SFO and SQL. The next-generation network, denoted a remote tower sensor system (RTSS), will soon be deployed at the Half Moon Bay Airport and a version of it will eventually be deployed at Los Angeles International Airport. In addition to remote control of video cameras via secure Web links, the RTSS offers realtime weather observations, remote sensing, portability, and a capability for deployment at remote and uninhabited sites. The RTSS can be used at airports that lack control towers, as well as at major airport hubs, to provide synthetic augmentation of vision for both local and remote operations under what would otherwise be conditions of low or even zero visibility.

Impacts of emission reduction and meteorological conditions on air quality improvement during the 2014 Youth Olympic Games in Nanjing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Qian; Wang, Tijian; Chen, Pulong; Huang, Xiaoxian; Zhu, Jialei; Zhuang, Bingliang

2017-11-01

As the holding city of the 2nd Youth Olympic Games (YOG), Nanjing is highly industrialized and urbanized, and faces several air pollution issues. In order to ensure better air quality during the event, the local government took great efforts to control the emissions from pollutant sources. However, air quality can still be affected by synoptic weather, not only emission. In this paper, the influences of meteorological factors and emission reductions were investigated using observational data and numerical simulations with WRF-CMAQ (Weather Research and Forecasting - Community Multiscale Air Quality). During the month in which the YOG were held (August 2014), the observed hourly mean concentrations of SO2, NO2, PM10, PM2.5, CO and O3 were 11.6 µg m-3, 34.0 µg m-3, 57.8 µg m-3, 39.4 µg m-3, 0.9 mg m-3 and 38.8 µg m-3, respectively, which were below China National Ambient Air Quality Standard (level 2). However, model simulation showed that the weather conditions, such as weaker winds during the YOG, were adverse for better air quality and could increase SO2, NO2, PM10, PM2.5 and CO by 17.5, 16.9, 18.5, 18.8, 7.8 and 0.8 %. Taking account of local emission abatement only, the simulated SO2, NO2, PM10, PM2.5 and CO decreased by 24.6, 12.1, 15.1, 8.1 and 7.2 %. Consequently, stringent emission control measures can reduce the concentrations of air pollutants in the short term, and emission reduction is very important for air quality improvement during the YOG. A good example has been set for air quality protection for important social events.

Weather and landscape factors affect white-tailed deer neonate survival at ecologically important life stages in the Northern Great Plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michel, Eric S.; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Kaskie, Kyle D.; Klaver, Robert W.; Jensen, William F.

2018-01-01

Offspring survival is generally more variable than adult survival and may limit population growth. Although white-tailed deer neonate survival has been intensively investigated, recent work has emphasized how specific cover types influence neonate survival at local scales (single study area). These localized investigations have often led to inconsistences within the literature. Developing specific hypotheses describing the relationships among environmental, habitat, and landscape factors influencing white-tailed deer neonate survival at regional scales may allow for detection of generalized patterns. Therefore, we developed 11 hypotheses representing the various effects of environmental (e.g., winter and spring weather), habitat (e.g., hiding and escape cover types), and landscape factors (e.g., landscape configuration regardless of specific cover type available) on white-tailed deer neonate survival up to one-month and from one- to three-months of age. At one-month, surviving fawns experienced a warmer lowest recorded June temperature and more June precipitation than those that perished. At three-months, patch connectance (percent of patches of the corresponding patch type that are connected within a predefined distance) positively influenced survival. Our results are consistent with white-tailed deer neonate ecology: increased spring temperature and precipitation are likely associated with a flush of nutritional resources available to the mother, promoting increased lactation efficiency and neonate growth early in life. In contrast, reduced spring temperature with increased precipitation place neonates at risk to hypothermia. Increased patch connectance likely reflects increased escape cover available within a neonate’s home range after they are able to flee from predators. If suitable escape cover is available on the landscape, then managers could focus efforts towards manipulating landscape configuration (patch connectance) to promote increased neonate survival while monitoring spring weather to assess potential influences on current year survival.

International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davila, Joseph M.; Gopalswamy, Nat; Thompson, Barbara

2009-01-01

The International Heliophysical Year (IHY), an international program of scientific collaboration to understand the external drivers of planetary environments, has come to an end. The IHY was a major international event of great interest to the member States, which involved the deployment of new instrumentation, new observations from the ground and in space, and an education component. We propose to continue the highly successful collaboration between the heliophysics science community and the United Nations Basic Space Science (UNBSS) program. One of the major thrust of the IHY was to deploy arrays of small instruments such as magnetometers, radio antennas, GPS receivers, all-sky cameras, particle detectors, etc. around the world to provide global measurements of heliospheric phenomena. The United Nations Basic Space Science Initiative (UNBSSI) played a major role in this effort. Scientific teams were organized through UNBSS, which consisted of a lead scientist who provided the instruments or fabrication plans for instruments in the array. As a result of the this program, scientists from UNBSS member states now participate in the instrument operation, data collection, analysis, and publication of scientific results, working at the forefront of science research. As part of this project, support for local scientists, facilities and data acquisition is provided by the host nation. In addition, support at the Government level is provided for local scientists to participate. Building on momentum of the IHY, we propose to continue the highly successful collaboration with the UNBSS program to continue the study of universal processes in the solar system that affect the interplanetary and terrestrial environments, and to continue to coordinate the deployment and operation of new and existing instrument arrays aimed at understanding the impacts of Space Weather on Earth and the near-Earth environment. Toward this end, we propose a new program, the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI).

International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davila, Joseph; Gopalswamy, Nathanial; Thompson, Barbara

2010-01-01

The International Heliophysical Year (IHY), an international program of scientific collaboration to understand the external drivers of planetary environments, has come to an end. The IHY was a major international event of great interest to the member States, which involved the deployment of new instrumentation, new observations from the ground and in space, and an education component. We propose to continue the highly successful collaboration between the heliophysics science community and the United Nations Basic Space Science (UNBSS) program. One of the major thrust of the IHY was to deploy arrays of small instruments such as magnetometers, radio antennas, GPS receivers, all-sky cameras, particle detectors, etc. around the world to provide global measurements of heliospheric phenomena. The United Nations Basic Space Science Initiative (UNBSSI) played a major role in this effort. Scientific teams were organized through UNBSS, which consisted of a lead scientist who provided the instruments or fabrication plans for instruments in the array. As a result of the this program, scientists from UNBSS member states now participate in the instrument operation, data collection, analysis, and publication of scientific results, working at the forefront of science research. As part of this project, support for local scientists, facilities and data acquisition is provided by the host nation. In addition, support at the Government level is provided for local scientists to participate. Building on momentum of the IHY, we propose to continue the highly successful collaboration with the UNBSS program to continue the study of universal processes in the solar system that affect the interplanetary and terrestrial environments, and to continue to coordinate the deployment and operation of new and existing instrument arrays aimed at understanding the impacts of Space Weather on Earth and the near-Earth environment. Toward this end, we propose a new program, the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI).

Capturing the WUnder: Using weather stations and WeatherUnderground to increase middle school students' understanding and interest in science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schild, K. M.; Dunne, P.

2014-12-01

New models of elementary- and middle-school level science education are emerging in response to the need for science literacy and the development of the Next Generation Science Standards. One of these models is fostered through the NSF's Graduate Teaching Fellows in K-12 Education (GK-12) program, which pairs a graduate fellow with a science teacher at a local school for an entire school year. In our project, a PhD Earth Sciences student was paired with a local middle school science teacher with the goal of installing a weather station, and incorporating the station data into the 8th grade science curriculum. Here we discuss how we were able to use a school weather station to introduce weather and climate material, engage and involve students in the creative process of science, and motivate students through inquiry-based lessons. In using a weather station as the starting point for material, we were able to make science tangible for students and provide an opportunity for each student to experience the entire process of scientific inquiry. This hands-on approach resulted in a more thorough understanding the system beyond a knowledge of the components, and was particularly effective in challenging prior weather and climate misconceptions. We were also able to expand the reach of the lessons by connecting with other weather stations in our region and even globally, enabling the students to become members of a larger system.

Teacher's Resource Book for Weather. Grade 1. Revised.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anchorage School District, AK.

The term weather is commonly used to refer to the condition of the atmosphere as it affects people's activities on the earth's surface. Four weather elements are considered in this unit: clouds, precipitation, temperature, and wind. This publication details the materials, objectives, supplemental materials, background information for the eight…

7 CFR 1945.20 - Making EM loans available.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... weather condition or natural phenomenon has substantially affected farmers, causing qualifying severe... § 1945.6(c)(3)(iii) on the basis of the same unusual and adverse weather condition or natural phenomenon... chapter. (2) When a series of unusual and adverse weather conditions or natural phenomena occur in a...

GUMICS-4 Year Run: Ground Magnetic Field Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honkonen, I. J.; Viljanen, A.; Juusola, L.; Facsko, G.; Vanhamäki, H.

2013-12-01

Space weather can have severe effects even at ground level when Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) disrupt power transmission networks, the worst case being a complete blackout affecting millions of people. The importance of space weather forecasting as well as the need for model improvement and validation has been recognized internationally. The recently concluded GUMICS-4 one year run, in which solar wind observations obtained from OMNIWeb for the period 2002-01-29 to 2003-02-02 were given as input to the model, will allow GUMICS to be validated against observations on an unprecedented scale. The performance of GUMICS can be quantified statistically, as a function of, for example, the solar wind driver, various geomagnetic indices, magnetic local time and other parameters. Here we concentrate on the ability of GUMICS to predict ground magnetic field observations for one year of simulated results. The ground magnetic field predictions are compared to observations of the mainland IMAGE magnetometer stations located at CGM latitudes 54-68 N. Furthermore the GIC derived from ground magnetic field predictions are compared to observations along the natural gas pipeline at Mäntsälä, South Finland. Various metrics are used to objectively evaluate the performance of GUMICS as a function of different parameters, thereby providing significant insight into the space weather forecasting ability of models based on first principles.

Shifts in mortality during a hot weather event in Vancouver, British Columbia: rapid assessment with case-only analysis.

PubMed

Kosatsky, Tom; Henderson, Sarah B; Pollock, Sue L

2012-12-01

We assessed shifts in patterns of mortality during a hot weather event in greater Vancouver, British Columbia. We used a case-only analysis to compare characteristics of individuals who died during the hottest week of 2009 with those who died (1) during earlier summer weeks in 2009 and (2) during the same calendar weeks in the summers of 2001 through 2008. Compared with the 8 previous weeks of 2009, odds of mortality during the summer's hottest week were highest in the 65 to 74 years age category, compared with the 85 years and older category (odds ratio [OR] = 1.47; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.06, 2.03). The number of deaths at home increased over deaths in hospitals or institutions (OR = 1.43; 95% CI = 1.10, 1.86). Densely populated administrative health areas were more affected. A shift toward deaths at home suggests that in-home-based protective measures should be part of planning for hot weather events in greater Vancouver. Targeting should be considered for those aged 65 to 74 years. The case-only approach is quick and easy to apply and can provide useful information about localized, time-limited events.

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.; Hoeth, Brian; Blottman, Peter F.

2007-01-01

Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision at the Shuttle Landing Facility. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. Both the SMG and the MLB are currently implementing the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software into their operations. The WRF EMS software allows users to employ both dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model- the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, provides SMG and NWS MLB with a lot of flexibility. It also creates challenges, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. The goal of this project is to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. Four different combinations of WRF initializations will be run (ADAS-ARW, ADAS-NMM, LAPS-ARW, and LAPS-NMM) at a 4-km resolution over the Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters. Five candidate convective initiation days using three different flow regimes over East-Central Florida will be examined, as well as two null cases (non-convection days). Each model run will be integrated 12 hours with three runs per day, at 0900, 1200, and 1500 UTe. ADAS analyses will be generated every 30 minutes using Level II Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from all Florida radars to verify the convection forecast. These analyses will be run on the same domain as the four model configurations. To quantify model performance, model output will be subjectively compared to the ADAS analyses of convection to determine forecast accuracy. In addition, a subjective comparison of the performance of the ARW using a high-resolution local grid with 2-way nesting, I-way nesting, and no nesting will be made for select convective initiation cases. The inner grid will cover the East-Central Florida region at a resolution of 1.33 km. The authors will summarize the relative skill of the various WRF configurations and how each configuration behaves relative to the others, as well as determine the best model configuration for predicting warm season convective initiation over East-Central Florida.

75 FR 3488 - Notice of Public Meetings for the National Park Service Alaska Region's Subsistence Resource...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-21

... scheduled at the call of the Chair. Should this meeting be postponed due to inclement weather or lack of a... inclement weather, or lack of a quorum, the alternate meeting dates are Saturday, March 6, 2010, from 7 p.m... meeting locations and dates may need to be changed based on lack of quorum, inclement weather or local...

Is It Going to Rain Today? Understanding the Weather Forecast.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allsopp, Jim; And Others

1996-01-01

Presents a resource for science teachers to develop a better understanding of weather forecasts, including outlooks, watches, warnings, advisories, severe local storms, winter storms, floods, hurricanes, nonprecipitation hazards, precipitation probabilities, sky condition, and UV index. (MKR)

Effects of Weather on Tourism and its Moderation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J. H.; Kim, S.; Lee, D. K.

2016-12-01

Tourism is weather sensitive industry (Gómez Martín, 2005). As climate change has been intensifying, the concerns about negative effects of weather on tourism also have been increasing. This study attempted to find ways that mitigate the negative effects from weather on tourism, by analyzing a path of the effects of weather on intention to revisit and its moderation. The data of the study were collected by a self-recording online questionnaire survey of South Korean domestic tourists during August 2015, and 2,412 samples were gathered. A path model of effects of weather on intention to revisit that including moderating effects from physical attraction satisfaction and service satisfaction was ran. Season was controlled in the path model. The model fit was adequate (CMIN/DF=2.372(p=.000), CFI=.974, RMSEA=.024, SRMR=0.040), and the Model Comparison, which assumes that the base model to be correct with season constrained model, showed that there was a seasonal differences in the model ( DF=24, CMIN=32.430, P=.117). By the analysis, it was figured out that weather and weather expectation affected weather satisfaction, and the weather satisfaction affected intention to revisit (spring/fall: .167**, summer: .104**, and winter: .114**). Meanwhile physical attraction satisfaction (.200**), and service satisfaction (.210**) of tourism positively moderated weather satisfaction in summer, and weather satisfaction positively moderated physical attraction (.238**) satisfaction and service satisfaction (.339**). In other words, in summer, dissatisfaction from hot weather was moderated by satisfaction from physical attractions and services, and in spring/fall, comfort weather conditions promoted tourists to accept tourism experience and be satisfied from attractions and services positively. Based on the result, it was expected that if industries focus on offering the good attractions and services based on weather conditions, there would be positive effects to alleviate tourists' discomfort from weather in climate change.

Weathering the Preschool Environment: Affect Moderates the Relations between Meteorology and Preschool Behaviors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lagace-Seguin, Daniel G.; d'Entremont, Marc-Robert L.

2005-01-01

The goal of this study was to examine the relations among various meteorological conditions, affective states and behavior in young children. Results from past research have revealed many weather effects on behavior and emotions with adult samples. However, there is a paucity of empirical evidence to support this link with children. Thirty-three…

Effect of weathering cycle and manufacturing method on performance of wood flour and high-density polyethylene composites

Treesearch

Nicole M. Stark

2006-01-01

Wood–plastic lumber is promoted as a low-maintenance high-durability product. When exposed to accelerated weathering, however, wood–plastic composites may experience a color change and loss in mechanical properties. Differences in weathering cycle and composite surface characteristics can affect the rate and amount of change caused by weathering. In this study, 50%...

Bioremediation of a weathered and a recently oil-contaminated soils from Brazil: a comparison study.

PubMed

Trindade, P V O; Sobral, L G; Rizzo, A C L; Leite, S G F; Soriano, A U

2005-01-01

The facility with which hydrocarbons can be removed from soils varies inversely with aging of soil samples as a result of weathering. Weathering refers to the result of biological, chemical and physical processes that can affect the type of hydrocarbons that remain in a soil. These processes enhance the sorption of hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs) to the soil matrix, decreasing the rate and extent of biodegradation. Additionally, pollutant compounds in high concentrations can more easily affect the microbial population of a recently contaminated soil than in a weathered one, leading to inhibition of the biodegradation process. The present work aimed at comparing the biodegradation efficiencies obtained in a recently oil-contaminated soil (spiked one) from Brazil and an weathered one, contaminated for four years, after the application of bioaugmentation and biostimulation techniques. Both soils were contaminated with 5.4% of total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPHs) and the highest biodegradation efficiency (7.4%) was reached for the weathered contaminated soil. It could be concluded that the low biodegradation efficiencies reached for all conditions tested reflect the treatment difficulty of a weathered soil contaminated with a high crude oil concentration. Moreover, both soils (weathered and recently contaminated) submitted to bioaugmentation and biostimulation techniques presented biodegradation efficiencies approximately twice as higher as the ones without the aforementioned treatment (natural attenuation).

Regional input to joint European space weather service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanislawska, I.; Belehaki, A.; Jansen, F.; Heynderickx, D.; Lilensten, J.; Candidi, M.

The basis for elaborating within COST 724 Action Developing the scientific basis for monitoring modeling and predicting Space Weather European space weather service is rich by many national and international activities which provide instruments and tools for global as well as regional monitoring and modeling COST 724 stimulates coordinates and supports Europe s goals of development and global cooperation by providing standards for timely and high quality information and knowledge in space weather Existing local capabilities are taken into account to develop synergies and avoid duplication The enhancement of environment monitoring networks and associated instruments technology yields mutual advantages for European service and regional services specialized for local users needs It structurally increases the integration of limited-area services generates a platform employing the same approach to each task differing mostly in input and output data In doing so it also provides complementary description of the environmental state within issued information A general scheme of regional services concept within COST 724 activity can be the processing chain from measurements trough algorithms to operational knowledge It provides the platform for interaction among the local end users who define what kind of information they need system providers who elaborate tools necessary to obtain required information and local service providers who do the actual processing of data and tailor it to specific user s needs Such initiative creates a unique possibility for small

Government and technological innovation - Weather modification as a case in point.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambright, W. H.

1972-01-01

The principal technology on which all forms of intentional, local weather modification ultimately rest is that of cloud seeding. There are three primary milestones in the evolution of such a new technology including invention, development, and introduction to society on an operational basis. It is shown that government has been deeply involved in each of the first two phases of weather modification's evolution. The agencies involved include the military agencies, the Weather Bureau, the National Science Foundation, and the Bureau of Reclamation. It is pointed out that weather modification will require some unusually flexible and open administrative devices if it is to advance in the public interest.

WaterSense Labeled Weather-Based Irrigation Controller Fact Sheet

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

WaterSense labeled irrigation controllers, which act like a thermostat for your sprinkler system by telling it when to turn on and off, use local weather and landscape conditions to tailor watering schedules to actual conditions on the site.

Mesoscale data assimilation for a local severe rainfall event with the NHM-LETKF system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunii, M.

2013-12-01

This study aims to improve forecasts of local severe weather events through data assimilation and ensemble forecasting approaches. Here, the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) is implemented with the Japan Meteorological Agency's nonhydrostatic model (NHM). The newly developed NHM-LETKF contains an adaptive inflation scheme and a spatial covariance localization scheme with physical distance. One-way nested analysis in which a finer-resolution LETKF is conducted by using the outputs of an outer model also becomes feasible. These new contents should enhance the potential of the LETKF for convective scale events. The NHM-LETKF is applied to a local severe rainfall event in Japan in 2012. Comparison of the root mean square errors between the model first guess and analysis reveals that the system assimilates observations appropriately. Analysis ensemble spreads indicate a significant increase around the time torrential rainfall occurred, which would imply an increase in the uncertainty of environmental fields. Forecasts initialized with LETKF analyses successfully capture intense rainfalls, suggesting that the system can work effectively for local severe weather. Investigation of probabilistic forecasts by ensemble forecasting indicates that this could become a reliable data source for decision making in the future. A one-way nested data assimilation scheme is also tested. The experiment results demonstrate that assimilation with a finer-resolution model provides an advantage in the quantitative precipitation forecasting of local severe weather conditions.

Local health and social care responses to implementing the national cold weather plan.

PubMed

Heffernan, C; Jones, L; Ritchie, B; Erens, B; Chalabi, Zaid; Mays, N

2017-09-18

The Cold Weather Plan (CWP) for England was launched by the Department of Health in 2011 to prevent avoidable harm to health by cold weather by enabling individuals to prepare and respond appropriately. This study sought the views of local decision makers involved in the implementation of the CWP in the winter of 2012/13 to establish the effects of the CWP on local planning. It was part of a multi-component independent evaluation of the CWP. Ten LA areas were purposively sampled which varied in level of deprivation and urbanism. Fifty-two semi-structured interviews were held with health and social care managers involved in local planning between November 2012 and May 2013. Thematic analysis revealed that the CWP was considered a useful framework to formalize working arrangements between agencies though local leadership varied across localities. There were difficulties in engaging general practitioners, differences in defining vulnerable individuals and a lack of performance monitoring mechanisms. The CWP was welcomed by local health and social care managers, and improved proactive winter preparedness. Areas for improvement include better integration with general practice, and targeting resources at socially isolated individuals in cold homes with specific interventions aimed at reducing social isolation and building community resilience. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Implementing extreme weather event advice and guidance in English public health systems.

PubMed

Wistow, Jonathan; Curtis, Sarah; Bone, Angie

2017-09-01

Extreme weather events (EWEs) can significantly impact on mortality and morbidity in the UK. How EWE guidance is disseminated and applied across health and social care systems, at the local, operational level, is not well understood. This exploratory study develops tools and resources to assist local stakeholders to cascade national 'all weather' EWE guidance across local systems. These resources are also used to evaluate the local interpretation and implementation of this advice and guidance within three local authority areas. In total, five discussion group meetings were held and 45 practitioners took part in the study. A thematic analysis was conducted. The main themes emerging from the analysis related to awareness of PHE guidance for EWE preparedness, data sharing feasibility, community engagement, specific conditions in remote rural areas and capacity of frontline staff. The relative difficulty in finding where the study 'best fits' on local stakeholders' agendas suggests that year-round and preparedness planning for EWEs may not have been considered a high priority in participating areas. This study adds to the relatively limited evidence internationally concerning the practical implementation at local level of national adaptation advice and guidance and potential barriers to achieving this. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Rock and stone weathering at Citadel fortifications, Gozo (Malta): benefits from terrestrial laser scanning combined with conventional investigations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapete, D.; Gigli, G.; Mugnai, F.; Vannocci, P.; Pecchioni, E.; Morelli, S.; Fanti, R.; Casagli, N.

2012-04-01

Military architecture heritage is frequently built on rock masses affected by slope instability and weathering processes, which progressively undermine the foundations and cause collapses and toppling of the masonries. The latter can be also weakened by alteration of the stone surfaces, as a consequence of the interactions with the local environmental conditions. These conservation issues are emphasized for those sites, whose susceptibility to structural damages is also due to the similarity between the lithotypes constituting the geologic substratum and the construction materials. Effective solutions for the protection from such a type of phenomena can be achieved if the whole "rock mass - built heritage system" is analyzed. In this perspective, we propose a new approach for the study of the weathering processes affecting historic hilltop sites, taking benefits from the combination of terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) and conventional investigations, the latter including geotechnical and minero-petrographic analyses. In particular, the results here presented were obtained from specific tests on the fortifications of Citadel, Gozo (Malta), performed in co-operation with the Restoration Unit, Works Division, Maltese Ministry for Resources and Rural Affairs and the private company Politecnica Ingegneria e Architettura. The Citadel fortifications are built at the top of a relatively stiff and brittle limestone plate, formed by Upper Coralline Limestone (UCL) and overlying a thick Blue Clay (BC) layer. Differential weathering creates extensively fractured ledges on the cap and erosion niches in the strata beneath, thereby favouring block detachment, even rockfall events, such as the last one occurred in 2001. The locally quarried Globigerina Limestone (GL), historically employed in restoration masonries, is also exposed to alveolization and powdering, and several collapses damaged the underwalling interventions. Since the erosion pattern distribution suggested a correlation with the structural setting of the rock mass and the mineralogical properties of the limestones, an overall weathering study was carried out, by combining surface surveys with analyses of the inner structure. A holistic TLS point cloud of Citadel, produced by Consorzio Ferrara Ricerche of the University of Ferrara and made available by the Restoration Unit, was exploited to perform a 3D quantitative kinematic analysis of the entire rock mass. Each sector was classified in relation to the probability of occurrence of instability mechanisms, among which plane failure, block toppling and wedge failure. The latter was found associated with the highest index measured (30%), followed by the flexural toppling mechanism (17%), providing a confirmation to the field survey and the results of geotechnical analyses. The integration with geologic and diagnostic investigations (e.g., boreholes, thin section observations) highlighted the intrinsic weaknesses of the rocks and stones to weathering, with a quite unexpected higher susceptibility to erosion and disaggregation characterizing the inner layers. Hence, the textural appearance of the erosion surfaces, the rock/stone structural properties and the TLS-based classification of the cliff sectors were mutually correlated, and the most unstable areas were mapped. As main implication for the conservation, on site monitoring system (i.e., biaxial inclinometers and crack gauges) was installed and targeted restorations have been properly designed.

White House and agencies focus on space weather concerns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2012-06-01

"Space weather is a serious matter that can affect human economies around the world," Tamara Dickinson, a senior policy analyst with the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), told attendees at the 2012 Space Weather Enterprise Forum, held 5 June in Washington, D. C. With the 2013 solar maximum nearing, researchers and government agencies are focusing on how the greater solar activity could affect our increasingly technological society and what measures can be taken to help prevent or mitigate any threats to the electricity grid, GPS, and other potentially vulnerable technologies. Dickenson said that there has been an increased awareness about space weather in the White House and that President Barack Obama recently has requested briefing memos on the topic. She highlighted several efforts the administration is taking related to space weather, including a forthcoming national Earth observation strategy, which could be released in July and will include an assessment of space weather. She explained that the strategy document will be part of the fiscal year 2014 presidential budget request and that it will be updated every 3 years.

Plausible Effect of Weather on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation with a Coupled General Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zedong; Wan, Xiuquan

2018-04-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a vital component of the global ocean circulation and the heat engine of the climate system. Through the use of a coupled general circulation model, this study examines the role of synoptic systems on the AMOC and presents evidence that internally generated high-frequency, synoptic-scale weather variability in the atmosphere could play a significant role in maintaining the overall strength and variability of the AMOC, thereby affecting climate variability and change. Results of a novel coupling technique show that the strength and variability of the AMOC are greatly reduced once the synoptic weather variability is suppressed in the coupled model. The strength and variability of the AMOC are closely linked to deep convection events at high latitudes, which could be strongly affected by the weather variability. Our results imply that synoptic weather systems are important in driving the AMOC and its variability. Thus, interactions between atmospheric weather variability and AMOC may be an important feedback mechanism of the global climate system and need to be taken into consideration in future climate change studies.

Unexpected but Incidental Positive Outcomes Predict Real-World Gambling.

PubMed

Otto, A Ross; Fleming, Stephen M; Glimcher, Paul W

2016-03-01

Positive mood can affect a person's tendency to gamble, possibly because positive mood fosters unrealistic optimism. At the same time, unexpected positive outcomes, often called prediction errors, influence mood. However, a linkage between positive prediction errors-the difference between expected and obtained outcomes-and consequent risk taking has yet to be demonstrated. Using a large data set of New York City lottery gambling and a model inspired by computational accounts of reward learning, we found that people gamble more when incidental outcomes in the environment (e.g., local sporting events and sunshine) are better than expected. When local sports teams performed better than expected, or a sunny day followed a streak of cloudy days, residents gambled more. The observed relationship between prediction errors and gambling was ubiquitous across the city's socioeconomically diverse neighborhoods and was specific to sports and weather events occurring locally in New York City. Our results suggest that unexpected but incidental positive outcomes influence risk taking. © The Author(s) 2016.

On the Sunny Side of Life: Sunshine Effects on Life Satisfaction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kampfer, Sylvia; Mutz, Michael

2013-01-01

This paper seeks to analyze the influence of the weather on a person's self-reported life satisfaction. On a theoretical level, it is claimed that "nice" weather can improve the affective well-being of a person. Given this, it is argued that affects can, in turn, have an impact on that person's general assessment of his or her life. In…

Ecohydrologic processes and soil thickness feedbacks control limestone-weathering rates in a karst landscape

DOE PAGES

Dong, Xiaoli; Cohen, Matthew J.; Martin, Jonathan B.; ...

2018-05-18

Here, chemical weathering of bedrock plays an essential role in the formation and evolution of Earth's critical zone. Over geologic time, the negative feedback between temperature and chemical weathering rates contributes to the regulation of Earth climate. The challenge of understanding weathering rates and the resulting evolution of critical zone structures lies in complicated interactions and feedbacks among environmental variables, local ecohydrologic processes, and soil thickness, the relative importance of which remains unresolved. We investigate these interactions using a reactive-transport kinetics model, focusing on a low-relief, wetland-dominated karst landscape (Big Cypress National Preserve, South Florida, USA) as a case study.more » Across a broad range of environmental variables, model simulations highlight primary controls of climate and soil biological respiration, where soil thickness both supplies and limits transport of biologically derived acidity. Consequently, the weathering rate maximum occurs at intermediate soil thickness. The value of the maximum weathering rate and the precise soil thickness at which it occurs depend on several environmental variables, including precipitation regime, soil inundation, vegetation characteristics, and rate of groundwater drainage. Simulations for environmental conditions specific to Big Cypress suggest that wetland depressions in this landscape began to form around beginning of the Holocene with gradual dissolution of limestone bedrock and attendant soil development, highlighting large influence of age-varying soil thickness on weathering rates and consequent landscape development. While climatic variables are often considered most important for chemical weathering, our results indicate that soil thickness and biotic activity are equally important. Weathering rates reflect complex interactions among soil thickness, climate, and local hydrologic and biotic processes, which jointly shape the supply and delivery of chemical reactants, and the resulting trajectories of critical zone and karst landscape development.« less

Ecohydrologic processes and soil thickness feedbacks control limestone-weathering rates in a karst landscape

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dong, Xiaoli; Cohen, Matthew J.; Martin, Jonathan B.

Here, chemical weathering of bedrock plays an essential role in the formation and evolution of Earth's critical zone. Over geologic time, the negative feedback between temperature and chemical weathering rates contributes to the regulation of Earth climate. The challenge of understanding weathering rates and the resulting evolution of critical zone structures lies in complicated interactions and feedbacks among environmental variables, local ecohydrologic processes, and soil thickness, the relative importance of which remains unresolved. We investigate these interactions using a reactive-transport kinetics model, focusing on a low-relief, wetland-dominated karst landscape (Big Cypress National Preserve, South Florida, USA) as a case study.more » Across a broad range of environmental variables, model simulations highlight primary controls of climate and soil biological respiration, where soil thickness both supplies and limits transport of biologically derived acidity. Consequently, the weathering rate maximum occurs at intermediate soil thickness. The value of the maximum weathering rate and the precise soil thickness at which it occurs depend on several environmental variables, including precipitation regime, soil inundation, vegetation characteristics, and rate of groundwater drainage. Simulations for environmental conditions specific to Big Cypress suggest that wetland depressions in this landscape began to form around beginning of the Holocene with gradual dissolution of limestone bedrock and attendant soil development, highlighting large influence of age-varying soil thickness on weathering rates and consequent landscape development. While climatic variables are often considered most important for chemical weathering, our results indicate that soil thickness and biotic activity are equally important. Weathering rates reflect complex interactions among soil thickness, climate, and local hydrologic and biotic processes, which jointly shape the supply and delivery of chemical reactants, and the resulting trajectories of critical zone and karst landscape development.« less

Hypothermia

MedlinePlus

Cold weather can affect your body in different ways. You can get frostbite, which is an injury to the ... Anyone who spends much time outdoors in cold weather can get hypothermia. You can also get it ...

Adapting Buildings for Indoor Air Quality in a Changing Climate

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Climate change presents many challenges, including the production of severe weather events. These events and efforts to minimize their effects through weatherization can adversely affect indoor environments.

Mitigating Climate Change with Earth Orbital Sunshades

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coverstone, Victoria; Johnson, Les

2015-01-01

An array of rotating sunshades based on emerging solar sail technology will be deployed in a novel Earth orbit to provide near-continuous partial shading of the Earth, reducing the heat input to the atmosphere by blocking a small percentage of the incoming sunlight, and mitigating local weather effects of anticipated climate change over the next century. The technology will provide local cooling relief during extreme heat events (and heating relief during extreme cold events) thereby saving human lives, agriculture, livestock, water and energy needs. A synthesis of the solar sail design, the sails' operational modes, and the selected orbit combine to provide local weather modification.

Impact of seasonal synoptic weather types on local PM10 concentrations in Bavaria/Germany: recent conditions and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weitnauer, Claudia; Beck, Christoph; Jacobeit, Jucundus

2015-04-01

It is a matter of common knowledge that local concentrations of PM10 (fine particles in the air with a medium diameter less than 10 μm) vary with the seasons in Europe. These concentrations are influenced on the one hand by the amount of natural and anthropogenic emissions and on the other hand by large-scale and local meteorological conditions. In Bavaria (part of southern Germany) as the target region of the present study, the PM10 concentrations are particularly high in winter time. One reason for this are increased particle emissions due to domestic heating and traffic load in December, January and February. As several studies in other European regions indicated, a distinct effect of the large-scale synoptic weather situation in winter on local PM10 concentrations should be considered as another reason. The main task of this study is to use seasonal synoptic weather types, which are optimized with respect to daily mean PM10 data at 16 Bavarian cities, and therefore are classified by using daily gridded NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (2.5° x 2.5° horizontal resolution) for the recent period 1980 - 2011 over a Central European spatial domain, to describe the impact of the large-scale meteorological conditions on the local particle concentrations. The weather types are related to monthly PM10 indices by using different transfer techniques like direct synoptic downscaling, multiple regression and generalized linear models as well as random forests. The PM10 indices are determined by averaging daily to monthly data (PMmean) or by counting the daily exceedances of a particular threshold (> 50 μg/m3, PMe50). The generated transfer models are evaluated in calibration and validation periods using several forecast skills, for example the mean squared skill score (MSSS) or the Heidke Skill Score (HSS). The sufficiently performing models are then applied to weather types derived from future climate change scenarios of the global climate model ECHAM 6 for the IPCC scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 in order to estimate future climate-change induced modifications of local PM10 concentrations in Bavaria.

Development of Innovative Technology to Provide Low-Cost Surface Atmospheric Observations in Data Sparse Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucera, Paul; Steinson, Martin

2017-04-01

Accurate and reliable real-time monitoring and dissemination of observations of surface weather conditions is critical for a variety of societal applications. Applications that provide local and regional information about temperature, precipitation, moisture, and winds, for example, are important for agriculture, water resource monitoring, health, and monitoring of hazard weather conditions. In many regions of the World, surface weather stations are sparsely located and/or of poor quality. Existing stations have often been sited incorrectly, not well-maintained, and have limited communications established at the site for real-time monitoring. The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), with support from USAID, has started an initiative to develop and deploy low-cost weather instrumentation in sparsely observed regions of the world. The project is focused on improving weather observations for environmental monitoring and early warning alert systems on a regional to global scale. Instrumentation that has been developed use innovative new technologies such as 3D printers, Raspberry Pi computing systems, and wireless communications. The goal of the project is to make the weather station designs, software, and processing tools an open community resource. The weather stations can be built locally by agencies, through educational institutions, and residential communities as a citizen effort to augment existing networks to improve detection of natural hazards for disaster risk reduction. The presentation will provide an overview of the open source weather station technology and evaluation of sensor observations for the initial networks that have been deployed in Africa.

Occupational heat stress assessment and protective strategies in the context of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Chuansi; Kuklane, Kalev; Östergren, Per-Olof; Kjellstrom, Tord

2018-03-01

Global warming will unquestionably increase the impact of heat on individuals who work in already hot workplaces in hot climate areas. The increasing prevalence of this environmental health risk requires the improvement of assessment methods linked to meteorological data. Such new methods will help to reveal the size of the problem and design appropriate interventions at individual, workplace and societal level. The evaluation of occupational heat stress requires measurement of four thermal climate factors (air temperature, humidity, air velocity and heat radiation); available weather station data may serve this purpose. However, the use of meteorological data for occupational heat stress assessment is limited because weather stations do not traditionally and directly measure some important climate factors, e.g. solar radiation. In addition, local workplace environmental conditions such as local heat sources, metabolic heat production within the human body, and clothing properties, all affect the exchange of heat between the body and the environment. A robust occupational heat stress index should properly address all these factors. This article reviews and highlights a number of selected heat stress indices, indicating their advantages and disadvantages in relation to meteorological data, local workplace environments, body heat production and the use of protective clothing. These heat stress and heat strain indices include Wet Bulb Globe Temperature, Discomfort Index, Predicted Heat Strain index, and Universal Thermal Climate Index. In some cases, individuals may be monitored for heat strain through physiological measurements and medical supervision prior to and during exposure. Relevant protective and preventive strategies for alleviating heat strain are also reviewed and proposed.

Assessing local resilience to typhoon disasters: A case study in Nansha, Guangzhou.

PubMed

Song, Jinglu; Huang, Bo; Li, Rongrong

2018-01-01

Building communities' resilience to natural weather hazards requires the appropriate assessment of such capabilities. The resilience of a community is affected not only by social, economic, and infrastructural factors but also by natural factors (including both site characteristics and the intensity and frequency of events). To date, studies of natural factors have tended to draw on annual censuses and to use aggregated data, thus allowing only a limited understanding of site-specific hot or cold spots of resilience. To improve this situation, we carried out a comprehensive assessment of resilience to typhoon disasters in Nansha district, Guangzhou, China. We measured disaster resilience on 1×1-km grid units with respect to socioeconomic and infrastructural dimensions using a set of variables and also estimated natural factors in a detailed manner with a meteorological modeling tool, the Weather Research and Forecast model. We selected typhoon samples over the past 10 years, simulated the maximum typhoon-borne strong winds and precipitation of each sample, and predicted the wind speed and precipitation volume at the 100-year return-level on the basis of extreme value analysis. As a result, a composite resilience index was devised by combining factors in different domains using factor analysis coupled with the analytic hierarchy process. Resilience mapping using this composite resilience index allows local governments and planners to identify potential hot or cold spots of resilience and the dominant factors in particular locations, thereby assisting them in making more rational site-specific measures to improve local resilience to future typhoon disasters.

Occupational heat stress assessment and protective strategies in the context of climate change.

PubMed

Gao, Chuansi; Kuklane, Kalev; Östergren, Per-Olof; Kjellstrom, Tord

2018-03-01

Global warming will unquestionably increase the impact of heat on individuals who work in already hot workplaces in hot climate areas. The increasing prevalence of this environmental health risk requires the improvement of assessment methods linked to meteorological data. Such new methods will help to reveal the size of the problem and design appropriate interventions at individual, workplace and societal level. The evaluation of occupational heat stress requires measurement of four thermal climate factors (air temperature, humidity, air velocity and heat radiation); available weather station data may serve this purpose. However, the use of meteorological data for occupational heat stress assessment is limited because weather stations do not traditionally and directly measure some important climate factors, e.g. solar radiation. In addition, local workplace environmental conditions such as local heat sources, metabolic heat production within the human body, and clothing properties, all affect the exchange of heat between the body and the environment. A robust occupational heat stress index should properly address all these factors. This article reviews and highlights a number of selected heat stress indices, indicating their advantages and disadvantages in relation to meteorological data, local workplace environments, body heat production and the use of protective clothing. These heat stress and heat strain indices include Wet Bulb Globe Temperature, Discomfort Index, Predicted Heat Strain index, and Universal Thermal Climate Index. In some cases, individuals may be monitored for heat strain through physiological measurements and medical supervision prior to and during exposure. Relevant protective and preventive strategies for alleviating heat strain are also reviewed and proposed.

Assessing local resilience to typhoon disasters: A case study in Nansha, Guangzhou

PubMed Central

Huang, Bo; Li, Rongrong

2018-01-01

Building communities’ resilience to natural weather hazards requires the appropriate assessment of such capabilities. The resilience of a community is affected not only by social, economic, and infrastructural factors but also by natural factors (including both site characteristics and the intensity and frequency of events). To date, studies of natural factors have tended to draw on annual censuses and to use aggregated data, thus allowing only a limited understanding of site-specific hot or cold spots of resilience. To improve this situation, we carried out a comprehensive assessment of resilience to typhoon disasters in Nansha district, Guangzhou, China. We measured disaster resilience on 1×1-km grid units with respect to socioeconomic and infrastructural dimensions using a set of variables and also estimated natural factors in a detailed manner with a meteorological modeling tool, the Weather Research and Forecast model. We selected typhoon samples over the past 10 years, simulated the maximum typhoon-borne strong winds and precipitation of each sample, and predicted the wind speed and precipitation volume at the 100-year return-level on the basis of extreme value analysis. As a result, a composite resilience index was devised by combining factors in different domains using factor analysis coupled with the analytic hierarchy process. Resilience mapping using this composite resilience index allows local governments and planners to identify potential hot or cold spots of resilience and the dominant factors in particular locations, thereby assisting them in making more rational site-specific measures to improve local resilience to future typhoon disasters. PMID:29522526

Space Weather Influence on Relative Motion Control using the Touchless Electrostatic Tractor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogan, Erik A.; Schaub, Hanspeter

2016-09-01

With recent interest in the use of electrostatic forces for contactless tugging and attitude control of noncooperative objects for orbital servicing and active debris mitigation, the need for a method of remote charge control arises. In this paper, the use of a directed electron beam for remote charge control is considered in conjunction with the relative motion control. A tug vehicle emits an electron beam onto a deputy object, charging it negatively. At the same time, the tug is charged positively due to beam emission, resulting in an attractive electrostatic force. The relative position feedback control between the tug and the passive debris object is studied subject to the charging being created through an electron beam. Employing the nominal variations of the GEO space weather conditions across longitude slots, two electrostatic tugging strategies are considered. First, the electron beam current is adjusted throughout the orbit in order to maximize this resulting electrostatic force. This open-loop control strategy compensates for changes in the nominally expected local space weather environment in the GEO region to adjust for fluctuations in the local plasma return currents. Second, the performance impact of using a fixed electron beam current on the electrostatic tractor is studied if the same natural space weather variations are assumed. The fixed electron beam current shows a minor performance penalty (<5 %) while providing a much simpler implementation that does not require any knowledge of local space weather conditions.

Gray Wave of the Great Transformation: A Satellite View of Urbanization, Climate, and Food Security

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Imhoff, Marc L.

2007-01-01

Land cover change driven by human activity is profoundly affecting Earth's natural systems with impacts ranging from a loss of biological productivity to changes in atmospheric chemistry and regional and global climate. This change has been so pervasive and progressed so rapidly, compared to natural processes, scientists refer to it as 'the great transformation'. Urbanization or the 'gray wave' of this transformation is being increasingly recognized as an important process in global climate change. A hallmark of our success as a species, large urban conglomerates do in fact alter their environments so profoundly that the local climate, atmospheric composition, and the basic ecology of the landscape are affected in ways that have consequences to human health and economic well-being. Fortunately we have incredible new tools to observe and understand these processes in ways that can be used to plan and develop enjoyable and sustainable urban places. A suite of Earth observing satellites is making it possible to study the interactions between urbanization, biological processes, and the atmosphere including weather and climate. Using these Earth Observatories we are learning how urban heat islands form and potentially ameliorate them, how urbanization can affect rainfall, pollution, surface water recharge at the local level, and climate and food security globally.

Predicting Power Outages Using Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerrai, D.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Yang, J.; Astitha, M.

2017-12-01

Power outages affect every year millions of people in the United States, affecting the economy and conditioning the everyday life. An Outage Prediction Model (OPM) has been developed at the University of Connecticut for helping utilities to quickly restore outages and to limit their adverse consequences on the population. The OPM, operational since 2015, combines several non-parametric machine learning (ML) models that use historical weather storm simulations and high-resolution weather forecasts, satellite remote sensing data, and infrastructure and land cover data to predict the number and spatial distribution of power outages. A new methodology, developed for improving the outage model performances by combining weather- and soil-related variables using three different weather models (WRF 3.7, WRF 3.8 and RAMS/ICLAMS), will be presented in this study. First, we will present a performance evaluation of each model variable, by comparing historical weather analyses with station data or reanalysis over the entire storm data set. Hence, each variable of the new outage model version is extracted from the best performing weather model for that variable, and sensitivity tests are performed for investigating the most efficient variable combination for outage prediction purposes. Despite that the final variables combination is extracted from different weather models, this ensemble based on multi-weather forcing and multi-statistical model power outage prediction outperforms the currently operational OPM version that is based on a single weather forcing variable (WRF 3.7), because each model component is the closest to the actual atmospheric state.

Precipitation Measurements From Space: Workshop report. An element of the climate observing system study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, D. (Editor); Thiele, O. W. (Editor)

1981-01-01

Global climate, agricultural uses for precipitation information, hydrological uses for precipitation, severe thunderstorms and local weather, global weather are addressed. Ground truth measurement, visible and infrared techniques, microwave radiometry and hybrid precipitation measurements, and spaceborne radar are discussed.

Atmospheric and oceanographic research review, 1978. [global weather, ocean/air interactions, and climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

Research activities related to global weather, ocean/air interactions, and climate are reported. The global weather research is aimed at improving the assimilation of satellite-derived data in weather forecast models, developing analysis/forecast models that can more fully utilize satellite data, and developing new measures of forecast skill to properly assess the impact of satellite data on weather forecasting. The oceanographic research goal is to understand and model the processes that determine the general circulation of the oceans, focusing on those processes that affect sea surface temperature and oceanic heat storage, which are the oceanographic variables with the greatest influence on climate. The climate research objective is to support the development and effective utilization of space-acquired data systems in climate forecast models and to conduct sensitivity studies to determine the affect of lower boundary conditions on climate and predictability studies to determine which global climate features can be modeled either deterministically or statistically.

Experimental and casework validation of ambient temperature corrections in forensic entomology.

PubMed

Johnson, Aidan P; Wallman, James F; Archer, Melanie S

2012-01-01

This paper expands on Archer (J Forensic Sci 49, 2004, 553), examining additional factors affecting ambient temperature correction of weather station data in forensic entomology. Sixteen hypothetical body discovery sites (BDSs) in Victoria and New South Wales (Australia), both in autumn and in summer, were compared to test whether the accuracy of correlation was affected by (i) length of correlation period; (ii) distance between BDS and weather station; and (iii) periodicity of ambient temperature measurements. The accuracy of correlations in data sets from real Victorian and NSW forensic entomology cases was also examined. Correlations increased weather data accuracy in all experiments, but significant differences in accuracy were found only between periodicity treatments. We found that a >5°C difference between average values of body in situ and correlation period weather station data was predictive of correlations that decreased the accuracy of ambient temperatures estimated using correlation. Practitioners should inspect their weather data sets for such differences. © 2011 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Groups Call for Better Protection From Climate Change and Severe Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fellows, Jack

2008-11-01

With a newly elected U.S. president taking office in January, eight leading professional organizations in the field of weather and climate have called on the next administration and Congress to better protect the United States from severe weather and climate change. The groups' ``transition document,'' which was provided to John McCain and Barack Obama, includes five recommendations to reverse declining budgets and provide tools and information that local and regional decision makers need in trying to prepare for weather- and climate-related impacts. The organizations also have been collecting from the community names that the next president should consider for key weather- and climate-related leadership positions in his administration.

On Observing the Weather

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crane, Peter

2004-01-01

Rain, sun, snow, sleet, wind... the weather affects everyone in some way every day, and observing weather is a terrific activity to attune children to the natural world. It is also a great way for children to practice skills in gathering and recording information and to learn how to use simple tools in a standardized fashion. What better way to…

State-local policy management project. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1981-08-01

The report describes case studies to explore new approaches for increasing state and local coordination in planning and managing programs in areas with significant scientific and technical components such as energy and environment. Specifically, the case studies reveal efforts of various states in the areas of energy conservation, weatherization, emergency preparedness, and air quality. Successes and failures of Maryland's decentralized approach to energy conservation are documented; success of the thermal and lighting efficiency standards program in Texas is discussed; state aid for local energy conservation programs in Clinton County, Michigan, is reviewed; and the success of the weatherization program inmore » Oregon is examined. Pilot programs in weatherization in Pennsylvania are shown to have led a statewide effort. Two Minnesota projects in emergency preparedness are documented and factors for success are listed. In addition, long-range planning for fuel shortages in New York is examined and the benefits of regional planning in Fairfax County, Virgina, are noted. Efforts are examined to improve air quality in Ohio, California, and New Jersey.« less

Assimilating InSAR Maps of Water Vapor to Improve Heavy Rainfall Forecasts: A Case Study With Two Successive Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mateus, Pedro; Miranda, Pedro M. A.; Nico, Giovanni; Catalão, João.; Pinto, Paulo; Tomé, Ricardo

2018-04-01

Very high resolution precipitable water vapor maps obtained by the Sentinel-1 A synthetic aperture radar (SAR), using the SAR interferometry (InSAR) technique, are here shown to have a positive impact on the performance of severe weather forecasts. A case study of deep convection which affected the city of Adra, Spain, on 6-7 September 2015, is successfully forecasted by the Weather Research and Forecasting model initialized with InSAR data assimilated by the three-dimensional variational technique, with improved space and time distributions of precipitation, as observed by the local weather radar and rain gauge. This case study is exceptional because it consisted of two severe events 12 hr apart, with a timing that allows for the assimilation of both the ascending and descending satellite images, each for the initialization of each event. The same methodology applied to the network of Global Navigation Satellite System observations in Iberia, at the same times, failed to reproduce observed precipitation, although it also improved, in a more modest way, the forecast skill. The impact of precipitable water vapor data is shown to result from a direct increment of convective available potential energy, associated with important adjustments in the low-level wind field, favoring its release in deep convection. It is suggested that InSAR images, complemented by dense Global Navigation Satellite System data, may provide a new source of water vapor data for weather forecasting, since their sampling frequency could reach the subdaily scale by merging different SAR platforms, or when future geosynchronous radar missions become operational.

Assimilating every-30-second 100-m-mesh radar observations for convective weather: implications to non-Gaussian PDF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyoshi, T.; Teramura, T.; Ruiz, J.; Kondo, K.; Lien, G. Y.

2016-12-01

Convective weather is known to be highly nonlinear and chaotic, and it is hard to predict their location and timing precisely. Our Big Data Assimilation (BDA) effort has been exploring to use dense and frequent observations to avoid non-Gaussian probability density function (PDF) and to apply an ensemble Kalman filter under the Gaussian error assumption. The phased array weather radar (PAWR) can observe a dense three-dimensional volume scan with 100-m range resolution and 100 elevation angles in only 30 seconds. The BDA system assimilates the PAWR reflectivity and Doppler velocity observations every 30 seconds into 100 ensemble members of storm-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model at 100-m grid spacing. The 30-second-update, 100-m-mesh BDA system has been quite successful in multiple case studies of local severe rainfall events. However, with 1000 ensemble members, the reduced-resolution BDA system at 1-km grid spacing showed significant non-Gaussian PDF with every-30-second updates. With a 10240-member ensemble Kalman filter with a global NWP model at 112-km grid spacing, we found roughly 1000 members satisfactory to capture the non-Gaussian error structures. With these in mind, we explore how the density of observations in space and time affects the non-Gaussianity in an ensemble Kalman filter with a simple toy model. In this presentation, we will present the most up-to-date results of the BDA research, as well as the investigation with the toy model on the non-Gaussianity with dense and frequent observations.

Assessment of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Upon the Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program: Assessment of the ARRA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tonn, Bruce; Hawkins, Beth; Rose, Erin

The Department of Energy (DOE) administers the national low-income Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). Under this program, DOE provides grants to states (grantees), which then provide grants to local weatherization agencies (subgrantees), to weatherize income-eligible homes for free. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009 allocated $5 billion in funding to WAP, a very significant increase from an annual appropriation that ranged in the $200–250 million range for many years. Furthermore, as part of a major evaluation of WAP, states and local weatherization agencies were surveyed, in part, to assess their experiences during the ARRA period. The substantial fundingmore » increase created a number of issues for the national weatherization network: the political visibility of their programs increased significantly, organizational responsibilities were shifted, new laws and regulations were passed that impacted their programs, media attention of their programs increased, federal oversight of their programs increased; and programmatic costs increased because of the increased oversight and because ARRA required WAP to operate under the provisions of the Davis-Bacon Act of 1931. There was also some concern within the national weatherization network that the influx of ARRA funds would permanently damage nonfederal funding leveraging relationships. However, two-thirds of grantees and over 40% of subgrantees stated that they believe that the long-term impacts of ARRA on leveraging relationships will be positive.« less

History of surface weather observations in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiebrich, Christopher A.

2009-04-01

In this paper, the history of surface weather observations in the United States is reviewed. Local weather observations were first documented in the 17th Century along the East Coast. For many years, the progression of a weather observation from an initial reading to dissemination remained a slow and laborious process. The number of observers remained small and unorganized until agencies including the Surgeon General, Army, and General Land Office began to request regular observations at satellite locations in the 1800s. The Smithsonian was responsible for first organizing a large "network" of volunteer weather observers across the nation. These observers became the foundation for today's Cooperative Observer network. As applications of weather data continued to grow and users required the data with an ever-decreasing latency, automated weather networks saw rapid growth in the later part of the 20th century. Today, the number of weather observations across the U.S. totals in the tens of thousands due largely to privately-owned weather networks and amateur weather observers who submit observations over the internet.

Extreme Events in China under Climate Change: Uncertainty and related impacts (CSSP-FOREX)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Befort, Daniel J.; Hodges, Kevin I.

2016-04-01

Suitable adaptation strategies or the timely initiation of related mitigation efforts in East Asia will strongly depend on robust and comprehensive information about future near-term as well as long-term potential changes in the climate system. Therefore, understanding the driving mechanisms associated with the East Asian climate is of major importance. The FOREX project (Fostering Regional Decision Making by the Assessment of Uncertainties of Future Regional Extremes and their Linkage to Global Climate System Variability for China and East Asia) focuses on the investigation of extreme wind and rainfall related events over Eastern Asia and their possible future changes. Here, analyses focus on the link between local extreme events and their driving weather systems. This includes the coupling between local rainfall extremes and tropical cyclones, the Meiyu frontal system, extra-tropical teleconnections and monsoonal activity. Furthermore, the relation between these driving weather systems and large-scale variability modes, e.g. NAO, PDO, ENSO is analysed. Thus, beside analysing future changes of local extreme events, the temporal variability of their driving weather systems and related large-scale variability modes will be assessed in current CMIP5 global model simulations to obtain more robust results. Beyond an overview of FOREX itself, first results regarding the link between local extremes and their steering weather systems based on observational and reanalysis data are shown. Special focus is laid on the contribution of monsoonal activity, tropical cyclones and the Meiyu frontal system on the inter-annual variability of the East Asian summer rainfall.

10 CFR 440.13 - Local applications.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 10 Energy 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Local applications. 440.13 Section 440.13 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY ENERGY CONSERVATION WEATHERIZATION ASSISTANCE FOR LOW-INCOME PERSONS § 440.13 Local applications. (a) The Support Office Director shall give written notice to all local applicants throughout a...

10 CFR 440.13 - Local applications.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Local applications. 440.13 Section 440.13 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY ENERGY CONSERVATION WEATHERIZATION ASSISTANCE FOR LOW-INCOME PERSONS § 440.13 Local applications. (a) The Support Office Director shall give written notice to all local applicants throughout a...

Genetically optimizing weather predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potter, S. B.; Staats, Kai; Romero-Colmenero, Encarni

2016-07-01

humidity, air pressure, wind speed and wind direction) into a database. Built upon this database, we have developed a remarkably simple approach to derive a functional weather predictor. The aim is provide up to the minute local weather predictions in order to e.g. prepare dome environment conditions ready for night time operations or plan, prioritize and update weather dependent observing queues. In order to predict the weather for the next 24 hours, we take the current live weather readings and search the entire archive for similar conditions. Predictions are made against an averaged, subsequent 24 hours of the closest matches for the current readings. We use an Evolutionary Algorithm to optimize our formula through weighted parameters. The accuracy of the predictor is routinely tested and tuned against the full, updated archive to account for seasonal trends and total, climate shifts. The live (updated every 5 minutes) SALT weather predictor can be viewed here: http://www.saao.ac.za/ sbp/suthweather_predict.html

Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma?

MedlinePlus

... mold growth, and wind can blow mold and pollen through the air. If you think weather plays ... triggers and discuss them with your doctor. If pollen, mold, or other allergens make asthma symptoms worse, ...

Influence of local calibration on the quality of online wet weather discharge monitoring: feedback from five international case studies.

PubMed

Caradot, Nicolas; Sonnenberg, Hauke; Rouault, Pascale; Gruber, Günter; Hofer, Thomas; Torres, Andres; Pesci, Maria; Bertrand-Krajewski, Jean-Luc

2015-01-01

This paper reports about experiences gathered from five online monitoring campaigns in the sewer systems of Berlin (Germany), Graz (Austria), Lyon (France) and Bogota (Colombia) using ultraviolet-visible (UV-VIS) spectrometers and turbidimeters. Online probes are useful for the measurement of highly dynamic processes, e.g. combined sewer overflows (CSO), storm events, and river impacts. The influence of local calibration on the quality of online chemical oxygen demand (COD) measurements of wet weather discharges has been assessed. Results underline the need to establish local calibration functions for both UV-VIS spectrometers and turbidimeters. It is suggested that practitioners calibrate locally their probes using at least 15-20 samples. However, these samples should be collected over several events and cover most of the natural variability of the measured concentration. For this reason, the use of automatic peristaltic samplers in parallel to online monitoring is recommended with short representative sampling campaigns during wet weather discharges. Using reliable calibration functions, COD loads of CSO and storm events can be estimated with a relative uncertainty of approximately 20%. If no local calibration is established, concentrations and loads are estimated with a high error rate, questioning the reliability and meaning of the online measurement. Similar results have been obtained for total suspended solids measurements.

Application of meteorology-based methods to determine local and external contributions to particulate matter pollution: A case study in Venice (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Squizzato, Stefania; Masiol, Mauro

2015-10-01

The air quality is influenced by the potential effects of meteorology at meso- and synoptic scales. While local weather and mixing layer dynamics mainly drive the dispersion of sources at small scales, long-range transports affect the movements of air masses over regional, transboundary and even continental scales. Long-range transport may advect polluted air masses from hot-spots by increasing the levels of pollution at nearby or remote locations or may further raise air pollution levels where external air masses originate from other hot-spots. Therefore, the knowledge of ground-wind circulation and potential long-range transports is fundamental not only to evaluate how local or external sources may affect the air quality at a receptor site but also to quantify it. This review is focussed on establishing the relationships among PM2.5 sources, meteorological condition and air mass origin in the Po Valley, which is one of the most polluted areas in Europe. We have chosen the results from a recent study carried out in Venice (Eastern Po Valley) and have analysed them using different statistical approaches to understand the influence of external and local contribution of PM2.5 sources. External contributions were evaluated by applying Trajectory Statistical Methods (TSMs) based on back-trajectory analysis including (i) back-trajectories cluster analysis, (ii) potential source contribution function (PSCF) and (iii) concentration weighted trajectory (CWT). Furthermore, the relationships between the source contributions and ground-wind circulation patterns were investigated by using (iv) cluster analysis on wind data and (v) conditional probability function (CPF). Finally, local source contribution have been estimated by applying the Lenschow' approach. In summary, the integrated approach of different techniques has successfully identified both local and external sources of particulate matter pollution in a European hot-spot affected by the worst air quality.

Climate control: United States weather modification in the cold war and beyond.

PubMed

Harper, Kristine C

2008-03-01

Rainmaking, hail busting, fog lifting, snowpack enhancing, lightning suppressing, hurricane snuffing...weather control. At the lunatic fringe of scientific discussion in the early twentieth century--and the subject of newspaper articles with tones ranging from skeptical titters to awestruck wonder--weather modification research became more serious after World War II. In the United States, the 'seeds' of silver iodide and dry ice purported to enhance rainfall and bust hailstorms soon became seeds of controversy from which sprouted attempts by federal, state and local government to control the controllers and exploit 'designer weather' for their own purposes.

Applications of LANCE Data at SPoRT

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molthan, Andrew

2014-01-01

Short term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center: Mission: Apply NASA and NOAA measurement systems and unique Earth science research to improve the accuracy of short term weather prediction at the regional/local scale. Goals: Evaluate and assess the utility of NASA and NOAA Earth science data and products and unique research capabilities to address operational weather forecast problems; Provide an environment which enables the development and testing of new capabilities to improve short term weather forecasts on a regional scale; Help ensure successful transition of new capabilities to operational weather entities for the benefit of society

Forecasting Winter Storms in the Sierra: A Social Science Perspective in Keeping the Public Safe without Negatively Impacting the Local Tourism Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milne, R.; Wallmann, J.; Myrick, D. T.

2010-12-01

The National Weather Service Office in Reno is responsible for issuing Blizzard Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories for the Sierra, including the Lake Tahoe Basin and heavily traveled routes such as Interstate 80, Highway 395 and Highway 50. These forecast products prepare motorists for harsh travel conditions as well as those venturing into the backcountry, which are essential to the NWS mission of saving lives and property. During the winter season, millions of people from around the world visit the numerous world class ski resorts in the Sierra and the Lake Tahoe Basin, which is vital to the local economy. This situation creates a challenging decision for the forecasters to provide appropriate wording in winter statements to keep the public safe, without significantly impacting the local tourism-based economy. Numerous text and graphical products, including online weather briefings, are utilized by NWS Reno to highlight hazards in ensuring the public, businesses, and other government agencies are prepared for winter storms and take appropriate safety measures. The effectiveness of these product types will be explored, with past snowstorms used as examples to show how forecasters determine which type of text or graphical product is most appropriate to convey the hazardous weather threats.

Rainmakers: why bad weather means good productivity.

PubMed

Lee, Jooa Julia; Gino, Francesca; Staats, Bradley R

2014-05-01

People believe that weather conditions influence their everyday work life, but to date, little is known about how weather affects individual productivity. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we predict and find that bad weather increases individual productivity and that it does so by eliminating potential cognitive distractions resulting from good weather. When the weather is bad, individuals appear to focus more on their work than on alternate outdoor activities. We investigate the proposed relationship between worse weather and higher productivity through 4 studies: (a) field data on employees' productivity from a bank in Japan, (b) 2 studies from an online labor market in the United States, and (c) a laboratory experiment. Our findings suggest that worker productivity is higher on bad-, rather than good-, weather days and that cognitive distractions associated with good weather may explain the relationship. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of our research. (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

NWS Marine Contacts

Science.gov Websites

! Boating Safety Beach Hazards Rip Currents Hypothermia Hurricanes Thunderstorms Lightning Coastal Flooding , Verification Richard May 301-427-9378 301-713-1520 FAX richard.may@noaa.gov Coastal Weather, Great Lakes, Ice operational nature relating to near shore and coastal forecasts, contact your local National Weather Service

Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark

2005-01-01

The Applied Meteorology Unit developed a forecast tool that provides an assessment of the likelihood of local convective severe weather for the day in order to enhance protection of personnel and material assets of the 45th Space Wing Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), and Kennedy Space Center (KSC).

National Weather Service Forecast Office Guam Home

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National Alerts Text Current Conditions Observations Satellite Hydrology River & Lake AHPS Radar Imagery AAFB (Guam) AAFB (Guam) Dial up CONUS Radar Forecasts Activity Planner Guam Public Marine Aviation ; Weather Topics: Local Alerts, Current Conditions, Radar, Satellite, Climate, W-GUM.Webmaster@noaa.gov

A Synoptic Weather Typing Approach and Its application to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Weather Events at Local Scale in South-Central Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shouquan Cheng, Chad; Li, Qian; Li, Guilong

2010-05-01

The synoptic weather typing approach has become popular in evaluating the impacts of climate change on a variety of environmental problems. One of the reasons is its ability to categorize a complex set of meteorological variables as a coherent index, which can facilitate analyses of local climate change impacts. The weather typing method has been successfully applied in Environment Canada for several research projects to analyze climatic change impacts on a number of extreme weather events, such as freezing rain, heavy rainfall, high-/low-flow events, air pollution, and human health. These studies comprise of three major parts: (1) historical simulation modeling to verify the extreme weather events, (2) statistical downscaling to provide station-scale future hourly/daily climate data, and (3) projections of changes in frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events in this century. To achieve these goals, in addition to synoptic weather typing, the modeling conceptualizations in meteorology and hydrology and a number of linear/nonlinear regression techniques were applied. Furthermore, a formal model result verification process has been built into each of the three parts of the projects. The results of the verification, based on historical observations of the outcome variables predicted by the models, showed very good agreement. The modeled results from these projects found that the frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events are projected to significantly increase under a changing climate in this century. This talk will introduce these research projects and outline the modeling exercise and result verification process. The major findings on future projections from the studies will be summarized in the presentation as well. One of the major conclusions from the studies is that the procedures (including synoptic weather typing) used in the studies are useful for climate change impact analysis on future extreme weather events. The implication of the significant increases in frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events would be useful to be considered when revising engineering infrastructure design standards and developing adaptation strategies and policies.

Quantifying Heterogeneities in Soil Cover and Weathering in the Bitterroot and Sapphire Mountains, Montana: Implications for Glacial Legacies and their Morphologic Control on Soil Formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benjaram, S. S.; Dixon, J. L.

2017-12-01

To what extent is chemical weathering governed by a landscape's topography? Quantifying chemical weathering in both steep rocky landscapes and soil-mantled landscapes requires describing heterogeneity in soil and rock cover at local and landscape scales. Two neighboring mountain ranges in the northern Rockies of western Montana, USA, provide an ideal natural laboratory in which to investigate the relationship between soil chemical weathering, persistence of soil cover, and topography. We focus our work in the previously glaciated Bitterroot Mountains, which consist of steep, rock-dominated hillslopes, and the neighboring unglaciated Sapphire Mountains, which display convex, soil-mantled hillslopes. Soil thickness measurements, soil and rock geochemistry, and digital terrain analysis reveal that soils in the rock-dominated Bitterroot Mountains are only slightly less weathered than those in the Sapphire Mountains. However, these differences are magnified when adjusted for rock fragments at a local scale and bedrock cover at a landscape scale, using our newly developed metric, the rock-adjusted chemical depletion fraction (RACDF) and rock-adjusted mass transfer coefficient (RA τ). The Bitterroots overall are 30% less weathered than the Sapphires despite higher mean annual precipitation in the former, with an average rock-adjusted CDF of 0.38 in the postglacial Bitterroots catchment and 0.61 in the nonglacial Sapphire catchment, suggesting that 38% of rock mass is lost in the conversion to soil in the Bitterroots, whereas 61% of rock mass is lost in the nonglaciated Sapphires. Because the previously glaciated Bitterroots are less weathered despite being wetter, we conclude that the glacial history of this landscape exerts more influence on soil chemical weathering than does modern climate. However, while previous studies have correlated weathering intensity with topographic parameters such as slope gradient, we find little topographic indication of specific controls on weathering in these complex systems.

A conceptual hydrodynamic model of a geological discontinuity in hard rock aquifers: Example of a quartz reef in granitic terrain in South India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewandel, Benoît; Lachassagne, Patrick; Zaidi, Faisal K.; Chandra, Subash

2011-08-01

SummaryThe structure and hydrodynamic properties of geological discontinuities and of a deeply weathered granite aquifer near these structures are described on the basis of geological, geophysical and hydrodynamic investigations in two sites of South India located along a 20-40-m-wide quartz reef intruding a weathered Archean biotite granite. One of the two sites also comprises a metre-wide dolerite dyke. Weathering processes appear to be at the origin of fissures development and of a related enhanced local hydraulic conductivity, both in the quartz reef and in the surrounding granite. The weathering profile in the granite (saprolite and fissured layer) is characterized by an abrupt deepening of the weathered layers in the granite near the contact and in the quartz reef itself. Therefore, the weathering profile shows a 'U'-shape geometry with, among others, the verticalization of the granite's fissured layer. The hydraulic conductivity of this verticalized layer is on average 5 × 10 -6 m/s and storativity about 10 -3 (-). The hydraulic conductivity of the fissured quartz is 4-6 × 10 -6 m/s and its storativity about 3-5 × 10 -4 (-). Both media are also characterized by a matrix hydraulic conductivity (10 -7-10 -9 m/s) and by a significant heterogeneity in hydrodynamic properties that generates preferential flow paths along the sub-vertical fissures parallel to the reef axis. A special attention has been paid for characterizing this heterogeneity. The weathering of the dolerite dyke, however, results in a local low hydraulic conductivity, which consequently does not enhance either the thickness of weathered granite layers or its hydraulic conductivity. The obtained results complete the conceptual hydrogeological model developed for weathered granite aquifers in characterizing the relationships between weathering processes and hydrodynamic properties near geological discontinuities.

A study of ASRS reports involving general aviation and weather encounters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rockwell, T. H.; Roach, D. E.; Griffin, W. C.

1981-01-01

Consideration is given to the nature and characteristics of problems involving dissemination of weather information, use of this information by pilots, its adequacy for the purpose intended, the ability of the air traffic control system to cope with weather related incidents, and the various aspects of pilot behavior, aircraft equipment, and NAVAIDS affecting flights in which weather figures. It is concluded from the study that skill and training deficiencies of general aviation pilots are not major factors in weather related occurrences, nor is lack of aircraft equipment. Major problem causes are identified with timely and easily interpreted weather information, judgement and attitude factors of pilots, and the functioning of the air traffic control system.

Impact of the 1997-1998 El-Nino of Regional Hydrology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lakshmi, Venkataraman; Susskind, Joel

1998-01-01

The 1997-1998 El-Nino brought with it a range of severe local-regional hydrological phenomena. Record high temperatures and extremely dry soil conditions in Texas is an example of this regional effect. The El-Nino and La-Nina change the continental weather patterns considerably. However, connections between continental weather anomalies and regional or local anomalies have not been established to a high degree of confidence. There are several unique features of the recent El-Nino and La-Nina. Due to the recognition of the present El-Nino well in advance, there have been several coupled model studies on global and regional scales. Secondly, there is a near real-time monitoring of the situation using data from satellite sensors, namely, SeaWIFS, TOVS, AVHRR and GOES. Both observations and modeling characterize the large scale features of this El-Nino fairly well. However the connection to the local and regional hydrological phenomenon still needs to be made. This paper will use satellite observations and analysis data to establish a relation between local hydrology and large scale weather patterns. This will be the first step in using satellite data to perform regional hydrological simulations of surface temperature and soil moisture.

New York Urban Hydro-Meteorological Testbed (NY-uHMT)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norouzi, H.; Bah, A.

2017-12-01

It is well known that heat waves kill more persons, on average, than any other extreme weather event in the United States. New York City experiences much adversity due to inclement weather. Exploring climate variation in New Yorker City will help scientists and local government to detect and forecast extreme weather hazards and gather more localized temperature data within the five boroughs. Ground based weather stations are widely used to provide real time data to the public to prevent disasters. The New York urban Hydro-meteorological Testbed (NY-uHMT) is a hydro meteorological network that is used to investigate climate change in the New York City area. It is composed of twenty autonomous weather stations that will gather information on air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and soil moisture properties around the densely populated NYC area. For each station, the data is stored on a Campbell Scientific CR200x data logger and can be accessed remotely using the LoggerNet software, or by direct connection using an RS-232 cable. Real-time weather data is acquired every fifteen minutes. The data is then periodically sampled and graphed through MATLAB code to be broadcasted on the uHMT website and is available at no charge to the public. We anticipate the results will show that the temperature, humidity, precipitation and soil moisture will vary from location to location depending on the magnitude of urbanization to the area.

Aerosols and their Impact on Radiation, Clouds, Precipitation & Severe Weather Events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Zhanqing; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Fan, Jiwen

Aerosols, the tiny particles suspended in the atmosphere, have been in the forefront of environmental and climate change sciences as the primary atmospheric pollutant and external force affecting Earth’s weather and climate. There are two dominant mechanisms by which aerosols affect weather and climate: aerosol-radiation interactions (ARI) and aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI). ARI arises from aerosol scattering and absorption, which alters the radiation budgets of the atmosphere and surface, while ACI is rooted to the fact that aerosols serve as cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei. Both ARI and ACI are coupled with atmospheric dynamics to produce a chain of complexmore » interactions with a large range of meteorological variables that influence both weather and climate. Elaborated here are the impacts of aerosols on the radiation budget, clouds (microphysics, structure, and lifetime), precipitation, and severe weather events (lightning, thunderstorms, hail, and tornados). Depending on environmental variables and aerosol properties, the effects can be both positive and negative, posing the largest uncertainties in the external forcing of the climate system. This has considerably hindered our ability in projecting future climate changes and in doing accurate numerical weather predictions.« less

Effects of Weather on Caloric and Nutritive Intake in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Babiarz, K.; Goldhaber-Fiebert, J.; Lobell, D. B.

2012-12-01

Many studies have investigated effects of weather on production of key food crops, largely motivated by a desire to anticipate impacts of climate change. However, health outcomes are most directly affected by food consumption, not production. Consumption changes will not necessarily follow production changes, primarily because people can adjust their diets away from foods that are most negatively affected. To more directly evaluate the effects of weather on nutrition, we analyzed reported household expenditure and consumption data from 20 rounds of the National Sample Survey (NSS) of India along with aggregated weather data of the two main agricultural seasons, kharif and rabi. Per capita intake of calories, protein, fats, and micronutrients were calculated from reported data at the household level, and then aggregated to district level for comparison with weather data. Regression analysis revealed significant negative effects of increased temperatures on calorie consumption in rural areas, with lower sensitivities in urban areas. We also found a higher sensitivity of protein and fat consumption to weather than for calories, which likely reflects the ability of households to switch to cheaper sources of calories in lean times. The results of this analysis will be useful for assessing the overall health burdens associated with climate change in India.

Analysis of weather events on U.S. railroads

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-01-13

Weather conditions exert a major influence on U.S. railroads. These conditions may affect operating efficiency, physical infrastructure, and the safe passage of freight and people. Railroad companies operate within a variety of meteorological conditi...

Predictability of Seasonal Precipitation Intensities Associated with Tropical Cyclones and Disturbances in Indo-China Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revel, M.; Utsumi, N.; Yoshikawa, S.; Kanae, S.

2016-12-01

Summer Monsoon precipitation provide support for the livelihood of the people of Southeast Asia where the population density is very high. Monsoon precipitation shows high variation in seasonal and yearly time scales affecting daily life of the people in the regions such Indo-China peninsula where most of the countries depend on agricultural economy. Predictability of seasonal extreme events such as flooding and droughts by different climatic conditions will enhance the ability to mitigate the risk of natural disasters in Indo-China peninsula. In addition lower tropospheric (850hPa) wind flow pattern is very useful in understanding the seasonal variability of Southeastern Asian Summer Monsoon. Furthermore summer monsoon in the Indo-China peninsula is strongly influenced by the local wind-terrain-precipitation interaction. Recently a set of Monsoon Indices has been developed by several researches, Indo China Monsoon Indices (ICMIs) as a representation of lower tropospheric wind flow patterns around Southeast Asian. On the other hand different precipitation providing weather systems vary according to the global position and local weather system. Responses of ICMIs to different precipitation providing weather systems may vary in temporal and spatial scales. Hence the seasonal responses of differentiated precipitation with ICMIs in Indo-China peninsula are being investigated. Objective detection methods are been adopted in order to identify the locations of tropical cyclones (TCs), and westward propagating disturbances (WDs) using a Japanese 25-year ReAnalysis data and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project One-Degree Daily data is differentiated into TCs, and WDs related precipitation. TCs contribute highly over the east coast of Indo China peninsula where WDs contributed all over land area of Indo-China peninsula but more towards Bay of Bengal. Correlations and regressions suggest that the indices which is calculated using the wind patterns, situated west of Indo-China peninsula tend to increase the moisture production to precipitation which is produced by seasonal winds and local convections. The increment of indices in the east of the peninsula tends withdraw the moisture of TCs and WDs related precipitation in Indo-China peninsula, as those originate from east of the peninsula.

Hurricane Proof This!

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sterling, Donna R.

2010-01-01

While learning about the types of weather events that occur in the local area, students in grades 4-6 were asked to consider how structures can be built to withstand extreme weather conditions. Teams of students designed, constructed, and tested buildings to withstand hurricanes and designed the tests they would use to evaluate their structures.…

Irrigation initiation timing in soybean grown on sandy soils in Northeast Arkansas

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Irrigation initiation timing was evaluated in furrow-irrigated soybean field with sandy soils in Mississippi County, AR. A major objective of this 2015 study was to validate and expand irrigation timing recommendations that pair plant growth measures with weather cues including use of local weather ...

Spring Outlook: Moderate flood risk for drenched Louisiana, east Texas |

Science.gov Websites

Climate Oceans & Coasts Fisheries Satellites Research Marine & Aviation Charting Sanctuaries improve drought in Northern California; little relief for rest of state Weather Climate climate outlooks weather and climate tools that NOAA provides emergency managers, water managers, state and local officials

Responses of Roadside Soil Cation Pools to Vehicular Emission Deposition in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, R.; Bain, D. J.; Jenerette, D.; Clarke, L. W.; Wilson, K.

2013-12-01

Roadside soils are heavily loaded with NO3- due to vehicular emissions. This deposition likely acidifies these soils, potentially mobilizing cationic species from soil exchange sites. Acidification driven mobilization is well documented in forest soils, but poorly understood in roadside soils. Metal concentrations in park and garden soils collected from Southern California were examined across gradients of soil chemistry, road network density, climate, and geology to examine cation mobilization effects. In our samples, soil pH is not clearly related to distance from the roadside or underlying geology. However, the depletion of several elements (Al, K) is clearly observed in near-road environments. These depletion trends occur despite contrary trends, including increased soil surface areas and soil organic matter in near-road environments. Additionally, inputs from the weathering of road building materials appear to affect soil chemistry. For example, soil Ca patterns remain relatively consistent relative to roads, suggesting Ca bearing weathering products replenish soil Ca pools in near-road areas. Simple mixing models constructed using elemental ratios are consistent with road material Ca source contributions. Observed near-road patterns in soil chemistry likely influence local ecological function, shifting plant communities and soil functions. Clear understanding of these shifts is essential to the effective use of green infrastructure and other strategies utilized to control road-sourced nutrients. This analytical framework can be applied globally as road networks continue to expand and affect larger ecosystems.

Welcome to NASA's Earth Science Enterprise: Educational CD-ROM Activity Supplement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1999-01-01

Since its inception in 1958, NASA has been studying the Earth and its changing environment by observing the atmosphere, oceans, land, ice, and snow, and their influence on weather and climate. We now understand that the key to gaining a better understanding of the global environment is exploring how the Earth's systems of air, land, water, and life interact with each other. This approach-called Earth Systems Science-blends together fields like meteorology, oceanography, geology, and biology. In 1991, NASA launched a more comprehensive program to study the Earth as an integrated environmental system. They call it NASA's Earth Science Enterprise. A major component of the Earth Science Enterprise is the Earth Observing System (EOS). EOS is series of satellites to be launched over the next two decades that will be used to intensively study the Earth, with the hopes of expanding our under- standing of how natural processes affect us, and how we might be affecting them. Such studies will yield improved weather forecasts, tools for managing agriculture and forests, information for fishermen and local planners, and, eventually, the ability to predict how the climate will change in the future. Today's program is laying the foundation for long-term environmental and climate monitoring and prediction. Potentially, this will provide the understanding needed in the future to support difficult decisions regarding the Earth's environment.

Data Assimilation of SMAP Observations and the Impact on Weather Forecasts and Heat Stress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan; Blankenship, Clay; Crosson, William; White, Khristopher

2014-01-01

SPoRT produces real-time LIS soil moisture products for situational awareness and local numerical weather prediction over CONUS, Mesoamerica, and East Africa ?Currently interact/collaborate with operational partners on evaluation of soil moisture products ?Drought/fire ?Extreme heat ?Convective initiation ?Flood and water borne diseases ?Initial efforts to assimilate L2 soil moisture observations from SMOS (as a precursor for SMAP) have been successful ?Active/passive blended product from SMAP will be assimilated similarly and higher spatial resolution should improve on local-scale processes

Coastal recirculation potential affecting air pollutants in Portugal: The role of circulation weather types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia; Levy, Ilan; Dayan, Uri; Jerez, Sonia; Mendes, Manuel; Trigo, Ricardo

2016-06-01

Coastal zones are under increasing development and experience air pollution episodes regularly. These episodes are often related to peaks in local emissions from industry or transportation, but can also be associated with regional transport from neighbour urban areas influenced by land-sea breeze recirculation. This study intends to analyze the relation between circulation weather patterns, air mass recirculation and pollution levels in three coastal airsheds of Portugal (Lisbon, Porto and Sines) based on the application of an objective quantitative measure of potential recirculation. Although ventilation events have a dominant presence throughout the studied 9-yrs period on all the three airsheds, recirculation and stagnation conditions occur frequently. The association between NO2, SO2 and O3 levels and recirculation potential is evident during summer months. Under high average recirculation potential and high variability, NO2 and SO2 levels are higher for the three airsheds, whilst for O3 each airshed responds differently. This indicates a high heterogeneity among the three airsheds in (1) the type of emission - traffic or industry - prevailing for each contaminant, and (2) the response to the various circulation weather patterns and recirculation situations. Irrespectively of that, the proposed methodology, based on iterative K-means clustering, allows to identify which prevailing patterns are associated with high recirculation potential, having the advantage of being applicable to any geographical location.

Climate change and dengue fever transmission in China: Evidences and challenges.

PubMed

Li, Chenlu; Lu, Yongmei; Liu, Jianing; Wu, Xiaoxu

2018-05-01

Dengue Fever (DF) has become one of the most serious infectious diseases in China. Dengue virus and its vector (Aedes mosquito) are known to be sensitive to climate condition. Climate impacts DF through affecting three essential bioecological aspects: DF virus, vector (mosquito) and DF transmission environment. Weather-based DF model, mosquito model and climate model are the three pillars to help the prediction of DF distribution. Through a systematic review of literature between 1980 and 2017, this paper summarizes empirical evidences in China on the impact of climate change on DF; it further reviews the related DF incidence models and their findings on how changes in weather factors may impact DF occurrences in China. Compared with some well-known research projects in the western countries, there is a lack of knowledge in China regarding how the spatiotemporal distribution of DF will respond to climate change. However, being able to predict DF distribution is key to China's efforts to prevent and control DF transmission. We conclude this paper by recommending four focused areas for China: promoting more advanced research on the relationship between extreme weather events and DF, developing regional-specific models for the high risk regions of DF in south China, encouraging interdisciplinary collaboration between climate studies and health services, and enhancing public health education and management at national, regional and local levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Economic Effects of Precipitation Enhancement in the Corn Belt.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gapcia, Philip; Changnon, Stanley; Pinar, Musa

1990-01-01

Policy formulation in weather modification requires an understanding of the economic effects from altered weather. The focus of this study is to provide insight into the beneficiaries of a functioning weather modification technology when applied at various spatial and temporal levels. An econometric model which links the corn/scybean production to U.S. cattle, hog and poultry sectors is used to determine the effects of precipitation enhancement in the U.S. Corn Belt, a humid climatic region. A regional supply formulation permits assessment of weather modification on production, prices, revenues to producers, and savings in consumers expenditures on meat. The results provide insight into the distribution of economic effects, emphasize the importance of careful planning in the use of weather modification technology, and provide useful information on the roles of local, state, and federal governments in the support of weather modification.

Models of Sector Flows Under Local, Regional and Airport Weather Constraints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulkarni, Deepak

2017-01-01

Recently, the ATM community has made important progress in collaborative trajectory management through the introduction of a new FAA traffic management initiative called a Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP). FAA can use CTOPs to manage air traffic under multiple constraints (manifested as flow constrained areas or FCAs) in the system, and it allows flight operators to indicate their preferences for routing and delay options. CTOPs also permits better management of the overall trajectory of flights by considering both routing and departure delay options simultaneously. However, adoption of CTOPs in airspace has been hampered by many factors that include challenges in how to identify constrained areas and how to set rates for the FCAs. Decision support tools providing assistance would be particularly helpful in effective use of CTOPs. Such DSTs tools would need models of demand and capacity in the presence of multiple constraints. This study examines different approaches to using historical data to create and validate models of maximum flows in sectors and other airspace regions in the presence of multiple constraints. A challenge in creating an empirical model of flows under multiple constraints is a lack of sufficient historical data that captures diverse situations involving combinations of multiple constraints especially those with severe weather. The approach taken here to deal with this is two-fold. First, we create a generalized sector model encompassing multiple sectors rather than individual sectors in order to increase the amount of data used for creating the model by an order of magnitude. Secondly, we decompose the problem so that the amount of data needed is reduced. This involves creating a baseline demand model plus a separate weather constrained flow reduction model and then composing these into a single integrated model. A nominal demand model is a flow model (gdem) in the presence of clear local weather. This defines the flow as a function of weather constraints in neighboring regions, airport constraints and weather in locations that can cause re-routes to the location of interest. A weather constrained flow reduction model (fwx-red) is a model of reduction in baseline counts as a function of local weather. Because the number of independent variables associated with each of the two decomposed models is smaller than that with a single model, need for amount of data is reduced. Finally, a composite model that combines these two can be represented as fwx-red (gdem(e), l) where e represents non-local constraints and l represents local weather. The approaches studied to developing these models are divided into three categories: (1) Point estimation models (2) Empirical models (3) Theoretical models. Errors in predictions of these different types of models have been estimated. In situations when there is abundant data, point estimation models tend to be very accurate. In contrast, empirical models do better than theoretical models when there is some data available. The biggest benefit of theoretical models is their general applicability in wider range situations once the degree of accuracy of these has been established.

National Weatherization Assistance Program Characterization Describing the Recovery Act Period

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tonn, Bruce Edward; Rose, Erin M.; Hawkins, Beth A.

This report characterizes the U.S. Department of Energy s Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) during the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Recovery Act) period. This research was one component of the Recovery Act evaluation of WAP. The report presents the results of surveys administered to Grantees (i.e., state weatherization offices) and Subgrantees (i.e., local weatherization agencies). The report also documents the ramp up and ramp down of weatherization production and direct employment during the Recovery Act period and other challenges faced by the Grantees and Subgrantees during this period. Program operations during the Recovery Act (Program Year 2010) aremore » compared to operations during the year previous to the Recovery Act (Program Year 2008).« less

The interacting effects of food, spring temperature, and global climate cycles on population dynamics of a migratory songbird.

PubMed

Townsend, Andrea K; Cooch, Evan G; Sillett, T Scott; Rodenhouse, Nicholas L; Holmes, Richard T; Webster, Michael S

2016-02-01

Although long-distance migratory songbirds are widely believed to be at risk from warming temperature trends, species capable of attempting more than one brood in a breeding season could benefit from extended breeding seasons in warmer springs. To evaluate local and global factors affecting population dynamics of the black-throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens), a double-brooded long-distance migrant, we used Pradel models to analyze 25 years of mark-recapture data collected in New Hampshire, USA. We assessed the effects of spring temperature (local weather) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation index (a global climate cycle), as well as predator abundance, insect biomass, and local conspecific density on population growth in the subsequent year. Local and global climatic conditions affected warbler populations in different ways. We found that warbler population growth was lower following El Niño years (which have been linked to poor survival in the wintering grounds and low fledging weights in the breeding grounds) than La Niña years. At a local scale, populations increased following years with warm springs and abundant late-season food, but were unaffected by spring temperature following years when food was scarce. These results indicate that the warming temperature trends might have a positive effect on recruitment and population growth of black-throated blue warblers if food abundance is sustained in breeding areas. In contrast, potential intensification of future El Niño events could negatively impact vital rates and populations of this species. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Local infestation or long-distance migration? The seasonal recolonization of dairy farms by Stomoxys calcitrans (Diptera: Muscidae) in south central Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Beresford, D V; Sutcliffe, J F

2009-04-01

Stable fly (Diptera: Muscidae) populations in south central Ontario, Canada, first occur on dairy farms in late spring, grow exponentially throughout the summer, and are frozen back each autumn. We examined the extent of overwinter persistence on 22 dairy farms in a 55- by 60-km region north of Lake Ontario that spans four climatic zones. Our overwintering sampling of larval habitat identified three farms located in the southern section of the study region as potential overwintering refugia. Using sticky trap catches to identify the timing of first spring appearance at each farm, we then tested two models of how local farm populations are reestablished annually: 1) stable flies disperse from local climatic refuges and colonize neighboring farms (the local source model); and 2) stable flies are carried into the study region by frontal weather systems (the distant source model). The timing of when stable flies first occurred at these farms supported a local source of dispersing colonists from a small proportion of local refuge farms. We discuss our results in terms of how yearly fluctuation in climate would affect refuge farm density in the region and how this, in turn, would shift the recolonization dynamic. Implications for controlling stable flies also are discussed.

Examining the Pilot and Controller Performance Data When in a Free Flight with Weather Phenomenon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nituen, Celestine A.; Lozito, Sandra C. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The present study investigated effects of weather related factors on the performance of pilots under free flight. A weather scenario was defined by a combination of precipitation factors (light rain, moderate rain, and heavy rain or snow), visibility (1,4,8 miles), wind conditions (light, medium, or heavy), cloud ceiling (800ft. below, 1800ft above, and 4000ft horizontal). The performance of the aircraft self-separation was evaluated in terms of detection accuracy and detection times for student- and commercial (expert) pilots. Overall, the results obtained from a behavioral analysis showed that in general, the ability to recognize intruder aircraft conflict incidents, followed by the ability to acquire the spatial location of the intruder aircraft relative to ownership aircraft were judged to be the major cognitive tasks as perceived by the participants during self-separation. Further, the participants rarely used cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) during conflict management related to aircraft separation, but used CDTI highly during decision-making tasks. In all weather scenarios, there were remarkable differences between expert and student pilots in detection times. In summary, weather scenarios were observed to affect intruder aircraft detection performance accuracies. There was interaction effects between weather Scenario-1 and Scenario-2 for climbing task data generated by both expert- and student- pilots at high traffic density. Scenario-3 weather condition provided an opportunity for poor detection accuracy as well as detection time increase. This may be attributed to low visibility. The intruder aircraft detection times were not affected by the weather conditions during climbing and descending tasks. The decision of pilots to fly into certain weather condition was dependent in part on the warning distance to the location of the weather. When pilots were warned of the weather conditions, they were more likely to fly their aircraft into it, but mostly when the warning was not close to the weather location.

Weather Stations as Educational and Hazard-Forecasting Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, L. J.; Gierke, J. S.; Gochis, E. E.; Dominguez, R.; Mayer, A. S.

2014-12-01

Small, relatively inexpensive (<$1000 USD) weather stations can be valuable tools for enhancing inquiry-based educational opportunities at all grade levels, while also facilitating compilation of climate data for longer term research. Weather stations and networks of stations have been installed both locally and abroad in mostly rural and resource-limited settings. The data are being used either in the classroom to engage students in place-based, scientific investigations and/or research to improve hydrometeorological hazard forecasting, including water scarcity. The San Vicente (El Salvador) Network of six stations monitors rainfall to aid warning and evacuations for landslide and flooding hazards. Other parameters are used in modeling the watershed hydrology. A station installed in Hermosillo, Mexico is used in both Geography and Ecology Classes. Trends in temperature and rainfall are graphed and compared to historic data gathered over the last 30 years by CONAGUA. These observations are linked to local water-related problems, including well salinization, diminished agriculture, depleted aquifers, and social conflict regarding access to water. Two weather stations were installed at the Hannahville Indian Community School (Nah Tah Wahsh) in Michigan for educational purposes of data collection, analysis, and presentation. Through inquiry-based explorations of local hydrological processes, students are introduced to how meteorological data are used in understanding watershed hydrology and the sustainable management of groundwater resources. Several Michigan Technological University Peace Corps Masters International students have deployed weather stations in and around the communities where they serve, and the data are used in research to help in understanding water resource availability and irrigation needs.

Weather forecasts, users' economic expenses and decision strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carter, G. M.

1972-01-01

Differing decision models and operational characteristics affecting the economic expenses (i.e., the costs of protection and losses suffered if no protective measures have been taken) associated with the use of predictive weather information have been examined.

Simulating soybean canopy temperature as affected by weather variables and soil water potential

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choudhury, B. J.

1982-01-01

Hourly weather data for several clear sky days during summer at Phoenix and Baltimore which covered a wide range of variables were used with a plant atmosphere model to simulate soybean (Glycine max L.) leaf water potential, stomatal resistance and canopy temperature at various soil water potentials. The air and dew point temperatures were found to be the significant weather variables affecting the canopy temperatures. Under identical weather conditions, the model gives a lower canopy temperature for a soybean crop with a higher rooting density. A knowledge of crop rooting density, in addition to air and dew point temperatures is needed in interpreting infrared radiometric observations for soil water status. The observed dependence of stomatal resistance on the vapor pressure deficit and soil water potential is fairly well represented. Analysis of the simulated leaf water potentials indicates overestimation, possibly due to differences in the cultivars.

Quantitative impact of aerosols on numerical weather prediction. Part I: Direct radiative forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marquis, J. W.; Zhang, J.; Reid, J. S.; Benedetti, A.; Christensen, M.

2017-12-01

While the effects of aerosols on climate have been extensively studied over the past two decades, the impacts of aerosols on operational weather forecasts have not been carefully quantified. Despite this lack of quantification, aerosol plumes can impact weather forecasts directly by reducing surface reaching solar radiation and indirectly through affecting remotely sensed data that are used for weather forecasts. In part I of this study, the direct impact of smoke aerosol plumes on surface temperature forecasts are quantified using a smoke aerosol event affecting the United States Upper-Midwest in 2015. NCEP, ECMWF and UKMO model forecast surface temperature uncertainties are studied with respect to aerosol loading. Smoke aerosol direct cooling efficiencies are derived and the potential of including aerosol particles in operational forecasts is discussed, with the consideration of aerosol trends, especially over regions with heavy aerosol loading.

Space Weather at Mars: MAVEN and MSL/RAD Observations of CME and SEP Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, C. O.; Ehresmann, B.; Lillis, R. J.; Dunn, P.; Rahmati, A.; Larson, D. E.; Guo, J.; Zeitlin, C.; Luhmann, J. G.; Halekas, J. S.; Espley, J. R.; Thiemann, E.; Hassler, D.

2017-12-01

While MAVEN have been observing the space weather conditions driven by ICMEs and SEPs in orbit around Mars, MSL/RAD have been measuring the surface radiation environment due to E > 150 MeV/nuc SEPs and the higher-energy galactic cosmic rays. The suite of MAVEN instruments measuring the particles (SEP), plasma (SWIA) and fields (MAG) information provides detailed local space weather information regarding the solar activity-related fluctuations in the measured surface dose rates. At the same time, the related enhancements in the RAD surface dose rates indicate the degree to which the SEPs affect the lower atmosphere and surface. We will present an overview of the MAVEN observations together with the MSL/RAD measurements and focus our discussion on a number of space weather events driven by CMEs and SEPs. During the March 2015 solar storm period, a succession of CMEs produced intense SEP proton fluxes that were detected by MAVEN/SEP in the 20 keV to 6 MeV detected energy channels. At higher energies, MAVEN/SEP record `FTO' SEP events that were triggered by > 13 MeV energetic protons passing through all three silicon detector layers (Front, Thick, and Open). Using the detector response matrix for an FTO event (incident energy vs detected energy), the minimum incident energy of the SEP protons observed in March 2015 was inferred to be > 40 MeV. The lack of any notable enhancements in the surface dose rate by MSL/RAD suggests that the highest incident energies of the SEP protons were < 150 MeV. Note that Forbush-like decreases were observed due to the local passages of the ICMEs. In contrast, MSL/RAD detected dose rate enhancements above the background level in October 2015 even though the MAVEN SWIA and MAG instruments did not detect any local passage of an ICME nor did the SEP instrument observe any SEP proton fluxes in the 20 keV to 6 MeV energy channels. However, MAVEN/SEP did record an FTO event that coincided with the RAD dose rate enhancement, all of which suggest that > 150 MeV SEP protons impacted the Martian atmosphere and surface. The source of the October 2015 SEP event was probably the CME that erupted near the solar west limb with respect to the Sun-Mars line. As part of the discussion, we will also show solar-heliospheric observations from near-Earth assets together with WSA-Enlil-cone results for some global heliospheric context.

Optimism following a tornado disaster.

PubMed

Suls, Jerry; Rose, Jason P; Windschitl, Paul D; Smith, Andrew R

2013-05-01

Effects of exposure to a severe weather disaster on perceived future vulnerability were assessed in college students, local residents contacted through random-digit dialing, and community residents of affected versus unaffected neighborhoods. Students and community residents reported being less vulnerable than their peers at 1 month, 6 months, and 1 year after the disaster. In Studies 1 and 2, absolute risk estimates were more optimistic with time, whereas comparative vulnerability was stable. Residents of affected neighborhoods (Study 3), surprisingly, reported less comparative vulnerability and lower "gut-level" numerical likelihood estimates at 6 months, but later their estimates resembled the unaffected residents. Likelihood estimates (10%-12%), however, exceeded the 1% risk calculated by storm experts, and gut-level versus statistical-level estimates were more optimistic. Although people believed they had approximately a 1-in-10 chance of injury from future tornadoes (i.e., an overestimate), they thought their risk was lower than peers.

An Approach to In-Situ Observations of Volcanic Plumes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smythe, W. D.; Lopes, M. C.; Pieri, D. C.; Hall, J. L.

2005-01-01

Volcanoes have long been recognized as playing a dominant role in the birth, and possibly the death, of biological populations. They are possible sources of primordial gases, provide conditions sufficient for creating amino acids, strongly affect the heat balance in the atmosphere, and have been shown to sustain life (in oceanic vents.) Eruptions can have profound effects on local flora and fauna, and for very large eruptions, may alter global weather patterns and cause entire species to fail. Measurements of particulates, gases, and dynamics within a volcanic plume are critical to understanding both how volcanoes work and how plumes affect populations, environment, and aviation. Volcanic plumes and associated eruption columns are a miasma of toxic gases, corrosive condensates, and abrasive particulates that makes them hazardous to nearby populations and poses a significant risk to all forms of aviation. Plumes also provide a mechanism for sampling the volcanic interior, which, for hydrothermal environments, may host unique biological populations.

Did Aboriginal vegetation burning affect the Australian summer monsoon?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balcerak, Ernie

2011-08-01

For thousands of years, Aboriginal Australians burned forests, creating grasslands. Some studies have suggested that in addition to changing the landscape, these burning practices also affected the timing and intensity of the Australian summer monsoon. Different vegetation types can alter evaporation, roughness, and surface reflectivity, leading to changes in the weather and climate. On the basis of an ensemble of experiments with a global climate model, Notaro et al. conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of decreased vegetation cover on the summer monsoon in northern Australia. They found that although decreased vegetation cover would have had only minor effects during the height of the monsoon season, during the premonsoon season, burning-induced vegetation loss would have caused significant decreases in precipitation and increases in temperature. Thus, by burning forests, Aboriginals altered the local climate, effectively extending the dry season and delaying the start of the monsoon season. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2011GL047774, 2011)

Effect of weathering on accuracy of fuel-moisture-indicator sticks in the Pacific Northwest.

Treesearch

William G. Morris

1959-01-01

How much does weathering affect accuracy of fuel-moisture indicator stick readings in different sections of Oregon and Washington? If unpainted lumber is exposed to weather for a few years, its color changes and the grain shows as much erosion as if it were sandblasted. According to the Forest Products Laboratory, chemical as well as physical changes produce these...

Boundary-Layer & health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costigliola, V.

2010-09-01

It has long been known that specific atmospheric processes, such as weather and longer-term climatic fluctuations, affect human health. The biometeorological literature refers to this relationship as meteorotropism, defined as a change in an organism that is correlated with a change in atmospheric conditions. Plenty of (patho)physiological functions are affected by those conditions - like the respiratory diseases - and currently it is difficult to put any limits for pathologies developed in reply. Nowadays the importance of atmospheric boundary layer and health is increasingly recognised. A number of epidemiologic studies have reported associations between ambient concentrations of air pollution, specifically particulate pollution, and adverse health effects, even at the relatively low concentrations of pollution found. Since 1995 there have been over twenty-one studies from four continents that have explicitly examined the association between ambient air pollutant mixes and daily mortality. Statistically significant and positive associations have been reported in data from various locations around the world, all with varying air pollutant concentrations, weather conditions, population characteristics and public health policies. Particular role has been given to atmospheric boundary layer processes, the impact of which for specific patient-cohort is, however, not well understood till now. Assessing and monitoring air quality are thus fundamental to improve Europe's welfare. One of current projects run by the "European Medical Association" - PASODOBLE will develop and demonstrate user-driven downstream information services for the regional and local air quality sectors by combining space-based and in-situ data with models in 4 thematic service lines: - Health community support for hospitals, pharmacies, doctors and people at risk - Public information for regions, cities, tourist industry and sporting event organizers - Compliance monitoring support on particulate matter for regional environmental agencies - Local forecast model evaluation support for local authorities and city bodies. Giving value to the above listed aspects, PASODOBLE objectives are following: - Evolution of existing and development of new sustainable air quality services for Europe on regional and local scales - Development and testing of a generic service framework for coordinated input data acquisition and customizable user-friendly access to services - Utilization of multiple cycles of delivery, use and assessment versus requirements and market planning in cooperation with users - Promotion and harmonisation of best practise tools for air quality communities. Further European multidisciplinary projects should be created to better understand the most prevalent atmospheric factors to be impacted in predictive, preventive and personalised medicine considered as the central concept for future medicine.

Thresholds for soil cover and weathering in mountainous landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dixon, Jean; Benjaram, Sarah

2017-04-01

The patterns of soil formation, weathering, and erosion shape terrestrial landscapes, forming the foundation on which ecosystems and human civilizations are built. Several fundamental questions remain regarding how soils evolve, especially in mountainous landscapes where tectonics and climate exert complex forcings on erosion and weathering. In these systems, quantifying weathering is made difficult by the fact that soil cover is discontinuous and heterogeneous. Therefore, studies that attempt to measure soil weathering in such systems face a difficult bias in measurements towards more weathered portions of the landscape. Here, we explore current understanding of erosion-weathering feedbacks, and present new data from mountain systems in Western Montana. Using field mapping, analysis of LiDAR and remotely sensed land-cover data, and soil chemical analyses, we measure soil cover and surface weathering intensity across multiple spatial scales, from the individual soil profile to a landscape perspective. Our data suggest that local emergence of bedrock cover at the surface marks a landscape transition from supply to kinetic weathering regimes in these systems, and highlights the importance of characterizing complex critical zone architecture in mountain landscapes. This work provides new insight into how landscape morphology and erosion may drive important thresholds for soil cover and weathering.

Space Weather Forecasting at the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nava, O.

2012-12-01

The Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) at Vandenberg Air Force Base is the command and control focal point for the operational employment of worldwide joint space forces. The JSpOC focuses on planning and executing US Strategic Command's Joint Functional Component Command for Space (JFCC SPACE) mission. Through the JSpOC, the Weather Specialty Team (WST) monitors space and terrestrial weather effects, plans and assesses weather impacts on military operations, and provides reach-back support for deployed theater solar and terrestrial needs. This presentation will detail how space weather affects the JSpOC mission set and how the scientific community can enhance the WST's capabilities and effectiveness.

GPS tomographic experiment on water vapour dynamics in the troposphere over Lisbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benevides, Pedro; Catalao, Joao; Miranda, Pedro

2015-04-01

Quantification of the water vapour variability on the atmosphere remains a difficult task, affecting the weather prediction. Coarse water vapour resolution measurements in space and time affect the numerical weather prediction solution models causing artifacts in the prediction of severe weather phenomena. The GNSS atmospheric processing has been developed in the past years providing integrated water vapour estimates comparable with the meteorological sensor measurements, with studies registering 1 to 2 kg/m2 bias, but lack a vertical determination of the atmospheric processes. The GNSS tomography in the troposphere is one of the most promising techniques for sensing the three-dimensional water vapour state of the atmosphere. The determination of the integrated water vapour profile by means of the widely accepted GNSS meteorology techniques, allows the reconstruction of several slant path delay rays in the satellite line of view, providing an opportunity to sense the troposphere at tree-dimensions plus time. The tomographic system can estimate an image solution of the water vapour but impositions have to be introduced to the system of equations inversion because of the non-optimal GNSS observation geometry. Application of this technique on atmospheric processes like large convective precipitation or mesoscale water vapour circulation have been able to describe its local dynamic vertical variation. A 3D tomographic experiment was developed over an area of 60x60 km2 around Lisbon (Portugal). The GNSS network available composed by 9 receivers was used for an experiment of densification of the permanent network using 8 temporarily installed GPS receivers (totalling 17 stations). This study was performed during several weeks in July 2013, where a radiosonde campaign was also held in order to validate the tomographic inversion solution. 2D integrated water vapour maps directly obtained from the GNSS processing were also evaluated and local coastal breeze circulation patterns were identified. Preliminary results show good agreement between radiosonde vertical profiles of water vapour and the correspondent grid columnar profile of the tomographic solution. This study aims for a preliminary characterization of the 3D water vapour field over this region, investigating its potential for monitor small scale air circulation on coastal areas like sea breeze meteorological phenomenon. This study was funded by the Portuguese Science Foundation FCT, under project SMOG PTDC/CTE-ATM/119922/2010 and PhD grant SFRH/BD/80288/2011.

Discharge and water chemistry of High Arctic rivers in NW Greenland (76° N, 68° W)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagedorn, B.; Sletten, R. S.; Vigna, A. C.; Hallet, B.

2004-12-01

The volume, temperature, and quality of freshwater runoff from high latitude areas ultimately affect sensitive components of polar oceans, including water stratification, nutrient cycling, and formation of deepwater currents. Freshwater is conveyed from Greenland to the ocean from a multitude of medium-sized rivers for which little is known about discharge and water characteristics. River runoff together with microclimate and soil processes were recorded in a typical high Arctic area in NW Greenland where complete climate records from pre-1978 to the present indicate increases in mean annual air temperature from -12.0° C to -10.7° C and precipitation from 65 mm to 120 mm water equivalent between 1993 and 2002. The study will improve understanding of the interaction between climate, landscape processes, and river runoff. The study site extends from the western edge of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Baffin Bay; it covers an area ranging between 10-20 km E-W and 10-15 km N-S, and the elevations reach 700 m. It is a typical high Arctic environment with sparse vegetation and pervasive active patterned ground. Most of the area is covered by glacial drift that resembles the underlying sedimentary and igneous Archean and Proterozoic bedrock. To address how seasonal weather patterns and landscape processes affect runoff and water quality, as well as to examine weathering and carbon budgets in the drainage, we monitor water discharge and suspended load, water temperature, water chemistry (pH, dissolved ions, dissolved organic and inorganic carbon) of three rivers. Two of these rivers originate as melt water runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet. The third stream is fed by local snowmelt and summer rain events. In addition, climate data along with soil moisture and temperature are recorded with automated stations at two locations. The potential sources of river water are thawing permafrost, local snowmelt, rain, and melting of glacial ice that all have distinct isotopic signatures (δ D and δ 18O). Stable isotopes therefore, are used to separate the hydrograph into these sources to help us relate discharge pattern and water quality to climate (precipitation, temperature) and landscape processes (thawing of permafrost, weathering, decomposition of organic matter). This presentation focuses on first data set collected from June to September 2004.

The relationship between extreme weather events and crop losses in central Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Li-Wei

2017-09-01

The frequency of extreme weather events, which cause severe crop losses, is increasing. This study investigates the relationship between crop losses and extreme weather events in central Taiwan from 2003 to 2015 and determines the main factors influencing crop losses. Data regarding the crop loss area and meteorological information were obtained from government agencies. The crops were categorised into the following five groups: `grains', `vegetables', `fruits', `flowers' and `other crops'. The extreme weather events and their synoptic weather patterns were categorised into six and five groups, respectively. The data were analysed using the z score, correlation coefficient and stepwise regression model. The results show that typhoons had the highest frequency of all extreme weather events (58.3%). The largest crop loss area (4.09%) was caused by two typhoons and foehn wind in succession. Extreme wind speed coupled with heavy rainfall is an important factor affecting the losses in the grain and vegetable groups. Extreme wind speed is a common variable that affects the loss of `grains', `vegetables', `fruits' and `flowers'. Consecutive extreme weather events caused greater crop losses than individual events. Crops with long production times suffered greater losses than those with short production times. This suggests that crops with physical structures that can be easily damaged and long production times would benefit from protected cultivation to maintain food security.

Seasonal variation, weather and behavior in day-care children: a multilevel approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciucci, Enrica; Calussi, Pamela; Menesini, Ersilia; Mattei, Alessandra; Petralli, Martina; Orlandini, Simone

2013-11-01

This study analyzes the effect of weather variables, such as solar radiation, indoor and outdoor air temperature, relative humidity and time spent outdoor, on the behavior of 2-year-old children and their affects across different seasons: winter, spring and summer. Participants were a group of 61 children (33 males and 28 females) attending four day-care centers in Florence (Central Italy). Mean age of children at the beginning of the study was 24.1 months ( SD = 3.6). We used multilevel linear analyses to account for the hierarchical structure of our data. The study analyzed the following behavioral variables: Activity Level, Attentional Focusing, Frustration, and Aggression. Results showed a different impact of some weather variables on children’s behavior across seasons, indicating that the weather variable that affects children’s behavior is usually the one that shows extreme values during the studied seasons, such as air temperature and relative humidity in winter and summer. Studying children and their reactions to weather conditions could have potentially wide-reaching implications for parenting and teaching practices, as well as for researchers studying social relationships development.

Shifting patterns of mild weather in response to projected radiative forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Wiel, Karin; Kapnick, Sarah; Vecchi, Gabriel

2017-04-01

Traditionally, climate change research has focused on changes in mean climate (e.g. global mean temperature, sea level rise, glacier melt) or change in extreme events (e.g. hurricanes, extreme precipitation, droughts, heat waves, wild fires). Though extreme events have the potential to disrupt society, extreme conditions are rare by definition. In contrast, mild weather occurs frequently and many human activities are built around it. Examples of such activities include football games, dog walks, bike rides, and outdoor weddings, but also activities of direct economic impact, e.g. construction work, infrastructure projects, road or rail transportation, air travel, and landscaping projects. Absence of mild weather impacts society in various way, understanding current and future mild weather is therefore of high scientific interest. We present a global analysis of mild weather based on simple and relatable criteria and we explore changes in mild weather occurrence in response to radiative forcing. A high-resolution global climate model, GFDL HiFLOR, is used to allow for investigation of local features and changes. In response to RCP4.5, we find a slight global mean decrease in the annual number of mild days projected both in the near future (-4 d/yr, 2016-2035) and at the end of this century (-10 d/yr, 2081-2100). Projected regional and seasonal redistributions of mild days are substantially greater. Tropical regions are projected to see large decreases, in the mid-latitudes small increases in the number of mild days are projected. Mediterranean climates are projected to see a shift of mild weather away from the local summer to the shoulder seasons. These changes are larger than the interannual variability of mild weather caused by El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Finally, we use reanalysis data to show an observed global decrease in the recent past, and we verify that these observed regional changes in mild weather resemble the projections.

Improving High-Resolution Weather Forecasts Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with an Updated Kain–Fritsch Scheme

EPA Science Inventory

Efforts to improve the prediction accuracy of high-resolution (1–10 km) surface precipitation distribution and variability are of vital importance to local aspects of air pollution, wet deposition, and regional climate. However, precipitation biases and errors can occur at ...

Software Tools for Stochastic Simulations of Turbulence

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-28

client interface to FTI. Specefic client programs using this interface include the weather forecasting code WRF ; the high energy physics code, FLASH...client programs using this interface include the weather forecasting code WRF ; the high energy physics code, FLASH; and two locally constructed fluid...45 4.4.2.2 FLASH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 4.4.2.3 WRF

Dress for the Weather

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glen, Nicole J.; Smetana, Lara K.

2010-01-01

"If someone were traveling to our area for the first time during this time of year, what would you tell them to bring to wear? Why?" This question was used to engage students in a guided-inquiry unit about how climate differs from weather. In this lesson, students explored local and national data sets to give "travelers" advice…

Adjustment of relative humidity and temperature for differences in elevation.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1961-01-01

The variation of fire-weather elements in mountainous terrain is complex at any one time, and the patterns vary considerably with time. During periods of serious fire weather, this variation becomes important. Much information is obtainable by local interpretation of available forecasts and observations. Optimum use of available information requires some understanding...

Role of Winter Weather Conditions and Slipperiness on Tourists' Accidents in Finland.

PubMed

Lépy, Élise; Rantala, Sinikka; Huusko, Antti; Nieminen, Pentti; Hippi, Marjo; Rautio, Arja

2016-08-15

(1) BACKGROUND: In Finland, slippery snowy or icy ground surface conditions can be quite hazardous to human health during wintertime. We focused on the impacts of the variability in weather conditions on tourists' health via documented accidents during the winter season in the Sotkamo area. We attempted to estimate the slipping hazard in a specific context of space and time focusing on the weather and other possible parameters, responsible for fluctuations in the numbers of injuries/accidents; (2) METHODS: We used statistical distributions with graphical illustrations to examine the distribution of visits to Kainuu Hospital by non-local patients and their characteristics/causes; graphs to illustrate the distribution of the different characteristics of weather conditions; questionnaires and interviews conducted among health care and safety personnel in Sotkamo and Kuusamo; (3) RESULTS: There was a clear seasonal distribution in the numbers and types of extremity injuries of non-local patients. While the risk of slipping is emphasized, other factors leading to injuries are evaluated; and (4) CONCLUSIONS: The study highlighted the clear role of wintery weather conditions as a cause of extremity injuries even though other aspects must also be considered. Future scenarios, challenges and adaptive strategies are also discussed from the viewpoint of climate change.

Role of Winter Weather Conditions and Slipperiness on Tourists’ Accidents in Finland

PubMed Central

Lépy, Élise; Rantala, Sinikka; Huusko, Antti; Nieminen, Pentti; Hippi, Marjo; Rautio, Arja

2016-01-01

(1) Background: In Finland, slippery snowy or icy ground surface conditions can be quite hazardous to human health during wintertime. We focused on the impacts of the variability in weather conditions on tourists’ health via documented accidents during the winter season in the Sotkamo area. We attempted to estimate the slipping hazard in a specific context of space and time focusing on the weather and other possible parameters, responsible for fluctuations in the numbers of injuries/accidents; (2) Methods: We used statistical distributions with graphical illustrations to examine the distribution of visits to Kainuu Hospital by non-local patients and their characteristics/causes; graphs to illustrate the distribution of the different characteristics of weather conditions; questionnaires and interviews conducted among health care and safety personnel in Sotkamo and Kuusamo; (3) Results: There was a clear seasonal distribution in the numbers and types of extremity injuries of non-local patients. While the risk of slipping is emphasized, other factors leading to injuries are evaluated; and (4) Conclusions: The study highlighted the clear role of wintery weather conditions as a cause of extremity injuries even though other aspects must also be considered. Future scenarios, challenges and adaptive strategies are also discussed from the viewpoint of climate change. PMID:27537899

Airborne and ground reconnaissance of part of the syenite complex near Wausau, Marathon county, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vickers, R.C.

1955-01-01

Airborne and ground reconnaissance for radioactive minerals in part of the syenite complex near Wausau, Marathon county, Wis., found 12 radioactive mineral localities. The rocks in the area are of Precambrian age and consist of syenite and nepheline syenite, which have intruded older granite, greenstone, quartzite, and argillite. There are very few outcrops, and much of the bedrock is deeply weathered and covered by residual soil. Thorium-bearing zircon pegatite float was found within the area of syenite and nepheline syenite at four localities. Reddish-brown euhedral to subeuhedral crystals of well-zoned zircon (variety cyrtolite) comprise more than 40 percent of some of the specimens. The radioactive mineral at four localities outside the area of syneites was identified as thorogummite, which occurred in nodular masses in residual soil. Alinement of the thorogummite float and associated radioactivity suggests that the thorogummite has resulted from weathering of narrow veins or pegmatites containing thorium-bearing minerals. Unidentified thorium-bearing minerals were found at three localities, and a specimen of allanite weighing about 2 pounds was found at one locality. Shallow trenches at two of the largest radioactivity anomalies showed that the radioactive material extended down into weathered bedrock. The occurrences might warrant additional physical exploration should there be sufficient demand for thorium. Further reconnaissance in the area would probably result in the discovery of additional occurrences.

New weather index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the University of Delaware have refined the wind-chill factor, a common measurement of weather discomfort, into a new misery register called the weather stress index. In addition to the mix of temperature and wind speed data used to calculate wind chill, the recipe for the index adds two new ingredients—humidity and a dash of benchmark statistics—to estimate human reaction to weather conditions. NOAA says that the weather stress index estimates human reaction to weather conditions and that the reaction depends on variations from the ‘normal’ conditions in the locality involved.Discomfort criteria for New Orleans, La., and Bismarck, N.D., for example, differ drastically. According to NOAA, when it's the middle of winter and it's -10°C with a relative humidity of 80% and 24 km/h winds, persons in New Orleans would be highly stressed while those in Bismarck wouldn't bat an eye.

Progress in space weather predictions and applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundstedt, H.

The methods of today's predictions of space weather and effects are so much more advanced and yesterday's statistical methods are now replaced by integrated knowledge-based neuro-computing models and MHD methods. Within the ESA Space Weather Programme Study a real-time forecast service has been developed for space weather and effects. This prototype is now being implemented for specific users. Today's applications are not only so many more but also so much more advanced and user-oriented. A scientist needs real-time predictions of a global index as input for an MHD model calculating the radiation dose for EVAs. A power company system operator needs a prediction of the local value of a geomagnetically induced current. A science tourist needs to know whether or not aurora will occur. Soon we might even be able to predict the tropospheric climate changes and weather caused by the space weather.

Relationship between Air Pollution and Weather Conditions under Complicated Geographical conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Q.; Jiang, P.; Li, M.

2017-12-01

Air pollution is one of the most serious issues all over the world, especially in megacities with constrained geographical conditions for air pollution diffusion. However, the dynamic mechanism of air pollution diffusion under complicated geographical conditions is still be confused. Researches to explore relationship between air pollution and weather conditions from the perspective of local atmospheric circulations can contribute more to solve such problem. We selected three megacities (Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou) under different geographical condition (mountain-plain transition region, coastal alluvial plain and coastal hilly terrain) to explore the relationship between air pollution and weather conditions. RDA (Redundancy analysis) model was used to analyze how the local atmospheric circulation acts on the air pollutant diffusion. The results show that there was a positive correlation between the concentration of air pollutants and air pressure, while temperature, precipitation and wind speed have negative correlations with the concentration of air pollutants. Furthermore, geographical conditions, such as topographic relief, have significant effects on the direction, path and intensity of local atmospheric circulation. As a consequence, air pollutants diffusion modes in different cities under various geographical conditions are diverse from each other.

Climate Change, Human Rights, and Social Justice.

PubMed

Levy, Barry S; Patz, Jonathan A

2015-01-01

The environmental and health consequences of climate change, which disproportionately affect low-income countries and poor people in high-income countries, profoundly affect human rights and social justice. Environmental consequences include increased temperature, excess precipitation in some areas and droughts in others, extreme weather events, and increased sea level. These consequences adversely affect agricultural production, access to safe water, and worker productivity, and, by inundating land or making land uninhabitable and uncultivatable, will force many people to become environmental refugees. Adverse health effects caused by climate change include heat-related disorders, vector-borne diseases, foodborne and waterborne diseases, respiratory and allergic disorders, malnutrition, collective violence, and mental health problems. These environmental and health consequences threaten civil and political rights and economic, social, and cultural rights, including rights to life, access to safe food and water, health, security, shelter, and culture. On a national or local level, those people who are most vulnerable to the adverse environmental and health consequences of climate change include poor people, members of minority groups, women, children, older people, people with chronic diseases and disabilities, those residing in areas with a high prevalence of climate-related diseases, and workers exposed to extreme heat or increased weather variability. On a global level, there is much inequity, with low-income countries, which produce the least greenhouse gases (GHGs), being more adversely affected by climate change than high-income countries, which produce substantially higher amounts of GHGs yet are less immediately affected. In addition, low-income countries have far less capability to adapt to climate change than high-income countries. Adaptation and mitigation measures to address climate change needed to protect human society must also be planned to protect human rights, promote social justice, and avoid creating new problems or exacerbating existing problems for vulnerable populations. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report Fourth Quarter FY-14

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H.; Crawford, Winifred C.; Watson, Leela R.; Shafer, Jaclyn

2014-01-01

Ms. Crawford completed the final report for the dual-Doppler wind field task. Dr. Bauman completed transitioning the 915-MHz and 50-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler (DRWP) splicing algorithm developed at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) into the AMU Upper Winds Tool. Dr. Watson completed work to assimilate data into model configurations for Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) and Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (KSC/CCAFS). Ms. Shafer began evaluating the a local high-resolution model she had set up previously for its ability to forecast weather elements that affect launches at KSC/CCAFS. Dr. Watson began a task to optimize the data-assimilated model she just developed to run in real time.

Weather monitoring and forecasting over eastern Attica (Greece) in the frame of FLIRE project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotroni, Vassiliki; Lagouvardos, Konstantinos; Chrysoulakis, Nektarios; Makropoulos, Christtos; Mimikou, Maria; Papathanasiou, Chrysoula; Poursanidis, Dimitris

2015-04-01

In the frame of FLIRE project a Decision Support System has been built with the aim to support decision making of Civil Protection Agencies and local stakeholders in the area of east Attica (Greece), in the cases of forest fires and floods. In this presentation we focus on a specific action that focuses on the provision of high resolution short-term weather forecasting data as well as of dense meteorological observations over the study area. Both weather forecasts and observations serve as an input in the Weather Information Management Tool (WIMT) of the Decision Support System. We focus on: (a) the description of the adopted strategy for setting-up the operational weather forecasting chain that provides the weather forecasts for the FLIRE project needs, (b) the presentation of the surface network station that provides real-time weather monitoring of the study area and (c) the strategy adopted for issuing smart alerts for thunderstorm forecasting based of real-time lightning observations as well as satellite observations.

The Weatherization Assistant User's Manual (Version 8.9)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gettings, Michael B.; Malhotra, Mini; Ternes, Mark P.

The Weatherization Assistant is a Windows-based energy audit software tool that was developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to help states and their local weatherization agencies implement the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program. The Weatherization Assistant is an umbrella program for two individual energy audits or measure selection programs: the National Energy Audit Tool (NEAT) for site-built single-family homes and the Manufactured Home Energy Audit (MHEA) for mobile homes. The Weatherization Assistant User's Manual documents the operation of the user interface for Version 8.9 of the software. This includes how to install and setup the software,more » navigate through the program, and initiate an energy audit. All of the user interface forms associated with the software and the data fields on these forms are described in detail. The manual is intended to be a training manual for new users of the Weatherization Assistant and as a reference manual for experienced users.« less

The Situational Awareness Sensor Suite for the ISS (SASSI): A Mission Concept to Investigate ISS Charging and Wake Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krause, L. Habash; Minow, J. I.; Coffey, V. N.; Gilchrist, Brian E.; Hoegy, W. R.

2014-01-01

The complex interaction between the International Space Station (ISS) and the surrounding plasma environment often generates unpredictable environmental situations that affect operations. Examples of affected systems include extravehicular activity (EVA) safety, solar panel efficiency, and scientific instrument integrity. Models and heuristically-derived best practices are well-suited for routine operations, but when it comes to unusual or anomalous events or situations, especially those driven by space weather, there is no substitute for real-time monitoring. Space environment data collected in real-time (or near-real time) can be used operationally for both real-time alarms and data sources in assimilative models to predict environmental conditions important for operational planning. Fixed space weather instruments mounted to the ISS can be used for monitoring the ambient space environment, but knowing whether or not (or to what extent) the ISS affects the measurements themselves requires adequate space situational awareness (SSA) local to the ISS. This paper presents a mission concept to use a suite of plasma instruments mounted at the end of the ISS robotic arm to systematically explore the interaction between the Space Station structure and its surrounding environment. The Situational Awareness Sensor Suite for the ISS (SASSI) would be deployed and operated on the ISS Express Logistics Carrier (ELC) for long-term "survey mode" observations and the Space Station Remote Manipulator System (SSRMS) for short-term "campaign mode" observations. Specific areas of investigation include: 1) ISS frame and surface charging during perturbations of the local ISS space environment, 2) calibration of the ISS Floating Point Measurement Unit (FPMU), 3) long baseline measurements of ambient ionospheric electric potential structures, 4) electromotive force-induced currents within large structures moving through a magnetized plasma, and 5) wake-induced ion waves in both electrostatic (i.e. particles) and electromagnetic modes. SASSI will advance the understanding of plasma-boundary interaction phenomena, demonstrate a suite a sensors acting in concert to provide effective SSA, and validate and/or calibrate existing ISS space environment instruments and models.

A Data Assimilation System For Operational Weather Forecast In Galicia Region (nw Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balseiro, C. F.; Souto, M. J.; Pérez-Muñuzuri, V.; Brewster, K.; Xue, M.

Regional weather forecast models, such as the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS), over complex environments with varying local influences require an accurate meteorological analysis that should include all local meteorological measurements available. In this work, the ARPS Data Analysis System (ADAS) (Xue et al. 2001) is applied as a three-dimensional weather analysis tool to include surface station and rawinsonde data with the NCEP AVN forecasts as the analysis background. Currently in ADAS, a set of five meteorological variables are considered during the analysis: horizontal grid-relative wind components, pressure, potential temperature and spe- cific humidity. The analysis is used for high resolution numerical weather prediction for the Galicia region. The analysis method used in ADAS is based on the successive corrective scheme of Bratseth (1986), which asymptotically approaches the result of a statistical (optimal) interpolation, but at lower computational cost. As in the optimal interpolation scheme, the Bratseth interpolation method can take into account the rel- ative error between background and observational data, therefore they are relatively insensitive to large variations in data density and can integrate data of mixed accuracy. This method can be applied economically in an operational setting, providing signifi- cant improvement over the background model forecast as well as any analysis without high-resolution local observations. A one-way nesting is applied for weather forecast in Galicia region, and the use of this assimilation system in both domains shows better results not only in initial conditions but also in all forecast periods. Bratseth, A.M. (1986): "Statistical interpolation by means of successive corrections." Tellus, 38A, 439-447. Souto, M. J., Balseiro, C. F., Pérez-Muñuzuri, V., Xue, M. Brewster, K., (2001): "Im- pact of cloud analysis on numerical weather prediction in the galician region of Spain". Submitted to Journal of Applied Meteorology. Xue, M., Wang. D., Gao, J., Brewster, K, Droegemeier, K. K., (2001): "The Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS), storm-scale numerical weather prediction and data assimilation". Meteor. Atmos Physics. Accepted

Floods, droughts and anomalous weather during the late Spörer minimum in Central Europe: the examples of the Carpathian Basin, the Eastern Alpine Region and Northern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiss, Andrea; Enzi, Silvia; Rohr, Christian

2017-04-01

Central Europe suffered from a major multi-decadal environmental crisis from the early 1470s onwards. The turn of the 15th-16th centuries was characterised by an unusually high number of stress factors related to large-scale climate variability, amongst others locally manifested in the great increase of weather-related extremes such as the multiannual droughts of the 1470s, with further significant drought periods in the 1490s and 1500s; the extraordinary high frequency of hard winters in the 1470s-1490s, and a major flood-rich period from the late 1470s to the mid-1520s. From the human impact side, the recurrent crisis was greatly intensified by biological hazards such as plague epidemic cycles and devastating multi-annual locust invasions that gravely affected our investigated region. Wars and war-expenses further deepened this crisis. In our presentation we provide an overview of flood peaks on major Italian (e.g. Po, Adige) and Eastern-Alpine (e.g. Danube, Salzach, Traun), Carpathian-Basin (Danube, Danube catchment, Tisza catchment) rivers and river catchments, with special emphasis on great flood years (e.g. 1485, 1499, 1501, 1508 etc.). Further topics of the discussion are droughts and multiannual dry periods, together with related environmental problems (e.g. locust invasions, bad harvests) such as the one in the 1470s, the early-mid 1490s, 1503 and 1506-1507. The third major group of weather extremes in the period consists of hard winters. This and other extreme weather events, together with their (potential) socio-economic effects comprise the final major topic of discussion of the paper.

Meteorological impact assessment of possible large scale irrigation in Southwest Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ter Maat, H. W.; Hutjes, R. W. A.; Ohba, R.; Ueda, H.; Bisselink, B.; Bauer, T.

2006-11-01

On continental to regional scales feedbacks between landuse and landcover change and climate have been widely documented over the past 10-15 years. In the present study we explore the possibility that also vegetation changes over much smaller areas may affect local precipitation regimes. Large scale (˜ 10 5 ha) irrigated plantations in semi-arid environments under particular conditions may affect local circulations and induce additional rainfall. Capturing this rainfall 'surplus' could then reduce the need for external irrigation sources and eventually lead to self-sustained water cycling. This concept is studied in the coastal plains in South West Saudi Arabia where the mountains of the Asir region exhibit the highest rainfall of the peninsula due to orographic lifting and condensation of moisture imported with the Indian Ocean monsoon and with disturbances from the Mediterranean Sea. We use a regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS) forced by ECMWF analysis data to resolve the effect of complex surface conditions in high resolution (Δ x = 4 km). After validation, these simulations are analysed with a focus on the role of local processes (sea breezes, orographic lifting and the formation of fog in the coastal mountains) in generating rainfall, and on how these will be affected by large scale irrigated plantations in the coastal desert. The validation showed that the model simulates the regional and local weather reasonably well. The simulations exhibit a slightly larger diurnal temperature range than those captured by the observations, but seem to capture daily sea-breeze phenomena well. Monthly rainfall is well reproduced at coarse resolutions, but appears more localized at high resolutions. The hypothetical irrigated plantation (3.25 10 5 ha) has significant effects on atmospheric moisture, but due to weakened sea breezes this leads to limited increases of rainfall. In terms of recycling of irrigation gifts the rainfall enhancement in this particular setting is rather insignificant.

Influence of weather on the synchrony of gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) outbreaks in New England

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, D.W.; Liebhold, A.M.

1995-10-01

Outbreaks of the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), were partially synchronous across New England states (Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont) from 1938 to 1992. To explain this synchrony, we investigated the Moran effect, a hypothesis that local population oscillations, which result form similar density-dependent mechanisms operating at time lags, may be synchronized over wide areas by exposure to common weather patterns. We also investigated the theory of climatic release, which ostulates that outbreaks are triggered by climatic factors favorable for population growth. Time series analysis revealed defoliation series in 2 states as 1st-order autoregressive processes and the other 2more » as periodic 2nd-order autoregressive processes. Defoliation residuals series computed using the autoregressive models for each state were cross correlated with series of weather variables recorded in the respective states. The weather variables significantly correlated with defoliation residuals in all 4 states were minimum temperature and precipitation in mid-December in the same gypsy moth generation and minimum temperature in mid- to late July of the previous generation. These weather variables also were correlated strongly among the 4 states. The analyses supported the predictions of the Moran effect and suggest the common weather may synchronize local populations so as to produce pest outbreaks over wide areas. We did not find convincing evidence to support the theory of climatic release. 41 refs., 7 figs., 4 tabs.« less

Transforming the sensing and numerical prediction of high-impact local weather through dynamic adaptation.

PubMed

Droegemeier, Kelvin K

2009-03-13

Mesoscale weather, such as convective systems, intense local rainfall resulting in flash floods and lake effect snows, frequently is characterized by unpredictable rapid onset and evolution, heterogeneity and spatial and temporal intermittency. Ironically, most of the technologies used to observe the atmosphere, predict its evolution and compute, transmit or store information about it, operate in a static pre-scheduled framework that is fundamentally inconsistent with, and does not accommodate, the dynamic behaviour of mesoscale weather. As a result, today's weather technology is highly constrained and far from optimal when applied to any particular situation. This paper describes a new cyberinfrastructure framework, in which remote and in situ atmospheric sensors, data acquisition and storage systems, assimilation and prediction codes, data mining and visualization engines, and the information technology frameworks within which they operate, can change configuration automatically, in response to evolving weather. Such dynamic adaptation is designed to allow system components to achieve greater overall effectiveness, relative to their static counterparts, for any given situation. The associated service-oriented architecture, known as Linked Environments for Atmospheric Discovery (LEAD), makes advanced meteorological and cyber tools as easy to use as ordering a book on the web. LEAD has been applied in a variety of settings, including experimental forecasting by the US National Weather Service, and allows users to focus much more attention on the problem at hand and less on the nuances of data formats, communication protocols and job execution environments.

Observational study of atmospheric surface layer and coastal weather in northern Qatar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samanta, Dhrubajyoti; Sadr, Reza

2016-04-01

Atmospheric surface layer is the interaction medium between atmosphere and Earth's surface. Better understanding of its turbulence nature is essential in characterizing the local weather, climate variability and modeling of turbulent exchange processes. The importance of Middle East region, with its unique geographical, economical and weather condition is well recognized. However, high quality micrometeorological observational studies are rare in this region. Here we show experimental results from micrometeorological observations from an experimental site in the coastal region of Qatar during August-December 2015. Measurements of winds are obtained from three sonic anemometers installed on a 9 m tower placed at Al Ghariyah beach in northern Qatar (26.08 °N, 51.36 °E). Different surface layer characteristics is analyzed and compared with earlier studies in equivalent weather conditions. Monthly statistics of wind speed, wind direction, temperature, humidity and heat index are made from concurrent observations from sonic anemometer and weather station to explore variations with surface layer characteristics. The results also highlights potential impact of sea breeze circulation on local weather and atmospheric turbulence. The observed daily maximum temperature and heat index during morning period may be related to sea breeze circulations. Along with the operational micrometeorological observation system, a camera system and ultrasonic wave measurement system are installed recently in the site to study coastline development and nearshore wave dynamics. Overall, the complete observational set up is going to provide new insights about nearshore wind dynamics and wind-wave interaction in Qatar.

Weatherization Beyond the Numbers: Case Studies of Fifteen High-performing Weatherization Agencies - Conducted May 2011 through July 2012

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tonn, Bruce Edward; Rose, Erin M.; Hawkins, Beth A.

The report presents fifteen individual case studies of high-performing and unique local weatherization agencies. This research was one component of the retrospective evaluation of the U.S. Department of Energy s Weatherization Assistance Program. The agencies were chosen to represent a range of contexts and approaches to weatherization. For example, the set of agencies includes a mix of urban and rural agencies, those that mainly use in-house crews to weatherize homes versus those that use contractor crews, and a mix of locations, from very cold climates to moderate to hot humid and dry climates. The case studies were mainly based onmore » site visits to the agencies that encompassed interviews with program directors, weatherization crews, and recipients of weatherization. This information was supplemented by secondary materials. The cases document the diversity of contexts and challenges faced by the agencies and how they operate on a day-by-day basis. The cases also high common themes found throughout the agencies, such as their focus on mission and respect for their clients.« less

Losses due to weather phenomena in the bituminous concrete construction industry in Wisconsin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuhn, H. A. J.

1973-01-01

The losses (costs) due to weather phenomena as they affect the bituminous concrete industry in Wisconsin were studied. The bituminous concrete industry's response to precipitation, in the form of rain, is identified through the use of a model, albeit crude, which identifies a typical industry decision-response mechanism. Using this mechanism, historical weather data and 1969 construction activity, dollar losses resulting from rain occurrences were developed.

Boys of Coshocton: Part One

ScienceCinema

Feikert, Ray; Estep, Meriem; Blair, Olive; Fortune, Sam

2018-05-07

Sam Fortune Jr. lost his job during Christmas week 2007. Hope finally came more than a year later when an ad in the local paper announced a job for heating technicians through a local home weatherization program.

Capabilities of current wildfire models when simulating topographical flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kochanski, A.; Jenkins, M.; Krueger, S. K.; McDermott, R.; Mell, W.

2009-12-01

Accurate predictions of the growth, spread and suppression of wild fires rely heavily on the correct prediction of the local wind conditions and the interactions between the fire and the local ambient airflow. Resolving local flows, often strongly affected by topographical features like hills, canyons and ridges, is a prerequisite for accurate simulation and prediction of fire behaviors. In this study, we present the results of high-resolution numerical simulations of the flow over a smooth hill, performed using (1) the NIST WFDS (WUI or Wildland-Urban-Interface version of the FDS or Fire Dynamic Simulator), and (2) the LES version of the NCAR Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-LES) model. The WFDS model is in the initial stages of development for application to wind flow and fire spread over complex terrain. The focus of the talk is to assess how well simple topographical flow is represented by WRF-LES and the current version of WFDS. If sufficient progress has been made prior to the meeting then the importance of the discrepancies between the predicted and measured winds, in terms of simulated fire behavior, will be examined.

National Severe Storms Forecast Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

The principal mission of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC) is to maintain a continuous watch of weather developments that are capable of producing severe local storms, including tornadoes, and to prepare and issue messages designated as either Weather Outlooks or Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Watches for dissemination to the public and aviation services. In addition to its assigned responsibility at the national level, the NSSFC is involved in a number of programs at the regional and local levels. Subsequent subsections and paragraphs describe the NSSFC, its users, inputs, outputs, interfaces, capabilities, workload, problem areas, and future plans in more detail.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation, local weather and occurrences of dengue virus serotypes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Xiaodong; Clements, Archie C. A.; Williams, Gail; Devine, Gregor; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao

2015-11-01

Severe dengue fever is usually associated with secondary infection by a dengue virus (DENV) serotype (1 to 4) that is different to the serotype of the primary infection. Dengue outbreaks only occur following importations of DENV in Cairns, Australia. However, the majority of imported cases do not result in autochthonous transmission in Cairns. Although DENV transmission is strongly associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle and local weather conditions, the frequency and potential risk factors of infections with the different DENV serotypes, including whether or not they differ, is unknown. This study used a classification tree model to identify the hierarchical interactions between Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), local weather factors, the presence of imported serotypes and the occurrence of the four autochthonous DENV serotypes from January 2000-December 2009 in Cairns. We found that the 12-week moving average of SOI and the 2-week moving average of maximum temperature were the most important factors influencing the variation in the weekly occurrence of the four DENV serotypes, the likelihoods of the occurrence of the four DENV serotypes may be unequal under the same environmental conditions, and occurrence may be influenced by changes in global and local environmental conditions in Cairns.

Weather Support for the 2002 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horel, J.; Potter, T.; Dunn, L.; Steenburgh, W. J.; Eubank, M.; Splitt, M.; Onton, D. J.

2002-02-01

The 2002 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games will be hosted by Salt Lake City, Utah, during February-March 2002. Adverse weather during this period may delay sporting events, while snow and ice-covered streets and highways may impede access by the athletes and spectators to the venues. While winter snowstorms and other large-scale weather systems typically have widespread impacts throughout northern Utah, hazardous winter weather is often related to local terrain features (the Wasatch Mountains and Great Salt Lake are the most prominent ones). Examples of such hazardous weather include lake-effect snowstorms, ice fog, gap winds, downslope windstorms, and low visibility over mountain passes.A weather support system has been developed to provide weather information to the athletes, games officials, spectators, and the interested public around the world. This system is managed by the Salt Lake Olympic Committee and relies upon meteorologists from the public, private, and academic sectors of the atmospheric science community. Weather forecasting duties will be led by National Weather Service forecasters and a team of private, weather forecasters organized by KSL, the Salt Lake City NBC television affiliate. Other government agencies, commercial firms, and the University of Utah are providing specialized forecasts and support services for the Olympics. The weather support system developed for the 2002 Winter Olympics is expected to provide long-term benefits to the public through improved understanding,monitoring, and prediction of winter weather in the Intermountain West.

Effects of weather on the retrieval of sea ice concentration and ice type from passive microwave data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maslanik, J. A.

1992-01-01

Effects of wind, water vapor, and cloud liquid water on ice concentration and ice type calculated from passive microwave data are assessed through radiative transfer calculations and observations. These weather effects can cause overestimates in ice concentration and more substantial underestimates in multi-year ice percentage by decreasing polarization and by decreasing the gradient between frequencies. The effect of surface temperature and air temperature on the magnitudes of weather-related errors is small for ice concentration and substantial for multiyear ice percentage. The existing weather filter in the NASA Team Algorithm addresses only weather effects over open ocean; the additional use of local open-ocean tie points and an alternative weather correction for the marginal ice zone can further reduce errors due to weather. Ice concentrations calculated using 37 versus 18 GHz data show little difference in total ice covered area, but greater differences in intermediate concentration classes. Given the magnitude of weather-related errors in ice classification from passive microwave data, corrections for weather effects may be necessary to detect small trends in ice covered area and ice type for climate studies.

The Importance of Capturing Topographic Features for Modeling Groundwater Flow and Transport in Mountainous Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.; Gomez-Velez, J. D.; Wilson, J. L.

2017-12-01

Groundwater plays a key role in runoff generation and stream water chemistry from reach to watershed scales. The spatial distribution of ridges and streams can influence the spatial patterns of groundwater recharge and drainage, specially in mountainous terrains where these features are more prominent. However, typical modeling efforts simplify or ignore some of these features due to computational limitations without a systematic investigation of the implications for flow and transport within the watershed. In this study, we investigate the effect of capturing key topographic features on modeled groundwater flow and transport characteristics in a mountainous watershed. We build model scenarios of different topographic complexity levels (TCLs) to capture different levels of representation of streams and ridges in the model. Modeled baseflow and groundwater mean residence time (MRT) are used to quantify the differences among TCLs. Our results show that capturing the streams and ridges has a significant influence on simulated groundwater flow and transport patterns. Topographic complexity controls the proportion of baseflow generated from local, intermediate, and regional flow paths, thus influencing the amount and MRT of basefow flowing into streams of different Horton-Strahler orders. We further simulate the concentration of solute exported into streams from subsurface chemical weathering. The concentration of chemical weathering products in streams is less sensitive to model TCL due to the thermodynamic constraint on the equilibrium concentration of the chemical weathering. We also tested the influence of geology on the effect of TCL. The effect of TCL is consistent under different geological conditions; however, it is enhanced in models with low hydraulic conductivity because more of the flow is forced into shallow and local flow paths. All of these changes can affect our ability to interpret environmental tracer data and predict bio- and geo-chemical evolution of stream water in mountainous watersheds.

[Climate change and hygienic assessment of weather conditions in Omsk and the Omsk Region].

PubMed

Gudinova, Zh V; Akimova, I S; Klochikhina, A V

2010-01-01

The paper deals with trends in climate change in the Omsk Region: the increases in average annual air temperatures and rainfall, which are attended by the higher number of abnormal weather events, as shown by the data of the Omsk Regional Board, Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring. There is information on weather severity in 2008: there was mild weather in spring and severe weather in winter, in January in particular. A survey of physicians has revealed that medical workers are concerned about climate problems and global warming and ascertained weather events mostly affecting the population's health. People worry most frequently about a drastic temperature drop or rise (as high as 71%), atmospheric pressure change (53%), and "when it is too hot in summer (47%).

Mesonet Programs - Needs and Best Practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Usher, J.; Doherty, J.

2010-09-01

Authors: Jeremy Usher Managing Director, Europe WeatherBug® Professional John Doherty Senior Vice President Sales & Marketing WeatherBug® Professional There are many well documented and compelling needs for significant improvements in mesoscale meteorological observations throughout many parts of the world. This is evidenced by the fact that the vast majority of severe weather impacts and related life, property and economic losses are associated with mesoscale events such as tornados, thunderstorms, fronts, squall lines, etc. Additionally, the looming impacts of climate change are likely to vary substantially on a regional basis requiring more detailed information on a finer scale. Hence, development of comprehensive densely spaced observing systems can establish the critical information repositories needed to improve: short- and medium-term weather and wind forecasting down to local scales, climate monitoring on a regional basis, as well as decision support capabilities including plume dispersion modeling and air quality forecasting, to name a few. It is imperative that governmental/public/private/academic partnerships are formed to leverage the collective expertise, assets and technological know-how of each sector. Collaboration of this type is particularly germane given that many existing mesonets (weather networks) have been deployed by local organizations with local considerations in mind. These stakeholders maintain the capacity to react quickly and efficiently and are best positioned to recommend future network evolution within their domains. Additionally, coordination will go a long way toward avoiding duplication of effort and promote both a robust private sector and wise expenditure of public funds. This presentation will outline the major building blocks of a mesonet program and discuss best practices for a multi-tiered, multi-faceted "network of networks" approach that maximizes the value derived from leveraging existing assets and serves multiple needs. On-going activities within the U.S. National Mesonet Program will be highlighted.

Reconstructing the 20th century high-resolution climate of the southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinapoli, Steven M.; Misra, Vasubandhu

2012-10-01

We dynamically downscale the 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR) to a 10-km grid resolution from 1901 to 2008 over the southeastern United States and the Gulf of Mexico using the Regional Spectral Model. The downscaled data set, which we call theFlorida Climate Institute-Florida State University Land-Atmosphere Reanalysis for theSoutheastern United States at 10-km resolution (FLAReS1.0), will facilitate the study of the effects of low-frequency climate variability and major historical climate events on local hydrology and agriculture. To determine the suitability of the FLAReS1.0 downscaled data set for any subsequent applied climate studies, we compare the annual, seasonal, and diurnal variability of temperature and precipitation in the model to various observation data sets. In addition, we examine the model's depiction of several meteorological phenomena that affect the climate of the region, including extreme cold waves, summer sea breezes and associated convective activity, tropical cyclone landfalls, and midlatitude frontal systems. Our results show that temperature and precipitation variability are well-represented by FLAReS1.0 on most time scales, although systematic biases do exist in the data. FLAReS1.0 accurately portrays some of the major weather phenomena in the region, but the severity of extreme weather events is generally underestimated. The high resolution of FLAReS1.0 makes it more suitable for local climate studies than the coarser 20CR.

Effects of urban green infrastructure (UGI) on local outdoor microclimate during the growing season.

PubMed

Wang, Yafei; Bakker, Frank; de Groot, Rudolf; Wörtche, Heinrich; Leemans, Rik

2015-12-01

This study analyzed how the variations of plant area index (PAI) and weather conditions alter the influence of urban green infrastructure (UGI) on microclimate. To observe how diverse UGIs affect the ambient microclimate through the seasons, microclimatic data were measured during the growing season at five sites in a local urban area in The Netherlands. Site A was located in an open space; sites B, C, and D were covered by different types and configurations of green infrastructure (grove, a single deciduous tree, and street trees, respectively); and site E was adjacent to buildings to study the effects of their façades on microclimate. Hemispherical photography and globe thermometers were used to quantify PAI and thermal comfort at both shaded and unshaded locations. The results showed that groves with high tree density (site B) have the strongest effect on microclimate conditions. Monthly variations in the differences of mean radiant temperature (∆Tmrt) between shaded and unshaded areas followed the same pattern as the PAI. Linear regression showed a significant positive correlation between PAI and ∆Tmrt. The difference of daily average air temperature (∆T a ) between shaded and unshaded areas was also positively correlated to PAI, but with a slope coefficient below the measurement accuracy (±0.5 °C). This study showed that weather conditions can significantly impact the effectiveness of UGI in regulating microclimate. The results of this study can support the development of appropriate UGI measures to enhance thermal comfort in urban areas.

Comparison of WRF local and nonlocal boundary layer Physics in Greater Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ooi, M. C. G.; Chan, A.; Kumarenthiran, S.; Morris, K. I.; Oozeer, M. Y.; Islam, M. A.; Salleh, S. A.

2018-02-01

The urban boundary layer (UBL) is the internal advection layer of atmosphere above urban region which determines the exchanges of momentum, water and other atmospheric constituents between the urban land surface and the free troposphere. This paper tested the performance of three planetary boundary layer (PBL) physics schemes of Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) software to ensure the appropriate representation of vertical structure of UBL in Greater Kuala Lumpur (GKL). Comparison was conducted on the performance of respective PBL schemes to generate vertical and near-surface weather profile and rainfall. Mellor-Yamada- Janjíc (MYJ) local PBL scheme coupled with Eta MM5 surface layer scheme was found to predict the near-surface temperature and wind profile and mixing height better than the nonlocal schemes during the intermonsoonal period with least influences of the synoptic background weather.

Potential value of satellite cloud pictures in weather modification projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biswas, K. R.

1972-01-01

Satellite imagery for one project season of cloud seeding programs in the northern Great Plains has been surveyed for its probable usefulness in weather modification programs. The research projects and the meteorological information available are described. A few illustrative examples of satellite imagery analysis are cited and discussed, along with local observations of weather and the seeding decisions made in the research program. This analysis indicates a definite correlation between satellite-observed cloud patterns and the types of cloud seeding activity undertaken, and suggests a high probability of better and/or earlier decisions if the imagery is available in real time. Infrared imagery provides better estimates of cloud height which can be useful in assessing the possibility of a hail threat. The satellite imagery appears to be of more value to area-seeding projects than to single-cloud seeding experiments where the imagery is of little value except as an aid in local forecasting and analysis.

Spotter's Guide for Identifying and Reporting Severe Local Storms.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (DOC), Rockville, MD.

This guide is designed to assist personnel working in the National Weather Service's Severe Local Storm Spotter Networks in identifying and reporting severe local storms. Provided are pictures of cloud types for severe storms including tornadoes, hail, thunder, lightning, heavy rains, and waterspouts. Instructions for key indications to watch for…

Cloud-Based Numerical Weather Prediction for Near Real-Time Forecasting and Disaster Response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molthan, Andrew; Case, Jonathan; Venners, Jason; Schroeder, Richard; Checchi, Milton; Zavodsky, Bradley; Limaye, Ashutosh; O'Brien, Raymond

2015-01-01

The use of cloud computing resources continues to grow within the public and private sector components of the weather enterprise as users become more familiar with cloud-computing concepts, and competition among service providers continues to reduce costs and other barriers to entry. Cloud resources can also provide capabilities similar to high-performance computing environments, supporting multi-node systems required for near real-time, regional weather predictions. Referred to as "Infrastructure as a Service", or IaaS, the use of cloud-based computing hardware in an on-demand payment system allows for rapid deployment of a modeling system in environments lacking access to a large, supercomputing infrastructure. Use of IaaS capabilities to support regional weather prediction may be of particular interest to developing countries that have not yet established large supercomputing resources, but would otherwise benefit from a regional weather forecasting capability. Recently, collaborators from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and Ames Research Center have developed a scripted, on-demand capability for launching the NOAA/NWS Science and Training Resource Center (STRC) Environmental Modeling System (EMS), which includes pre-compiled binaries of the latest version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF-EMS provides scripting for downloading appropriate initial and boundary conditions from global models, along with higher-resolution vegetation, land surface, and sea surface temperature data sets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center. This presentation will provide an overview of the modeling system capabilities and benchmarks performed on the Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2) environment. In addition, the presentation will discuss future opportunities to deploy the system in support of weather prediction in developing countries supported by NASA's SERVIR Project, which provides capacity building activities in environmental monitoring and prediction across a growing number of regional hubs throughout the world. Capacity-building applications that extend numerical weather prediction to developing countries are intended to provide near real-time applications to benefit public health, safety, and economic interests, but may have a greater impact during disaster events by providing a source for local predictions of weather-related hazards, or impacts that local weather events may have during the recovery phase.

Phytoremediation potential and ecological and phenological changes of native pioneer plants from weathered oil spill-impacted sites at tropical wetlands.

PubMed

Palma-Cruz, Felipe de J; Pérez-Vargas, Josefina; Rivera Casado, Noemí Araceli; Gómez Guzmán, Octavio; Calva-Calva, Graciano

2016-08-01

Pioneer native plant species from weathered oil spill-affected sites were selected to study their potential for phytoremediation on the basis of their ecological and phenological changes during the phytoremediation process. Experiments were conducted in field and in greenhouse. In field, native plants from aged oil spill-impacted sites with up 400 g of weathered petroleum hydrocarbons per kilogram soil were selected. In the impacted sites, the principal dominant plant species with potential for hydrocarbons removal were Cyperus laxus, Cyperus esculentus, and Ludwigia peploides. In greenhouse, the phenology of the selected plant species was drastically affected by the hydrocarbons level above 325 g total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) per kilogram soil after 2 years of phytoremediation of soils from the aged oil spill-impacted sites. From the phytoremediation treatments, a mix-culture of C. laxus, C. esculentus, and L. peploides in soil containing 325 g TPH/kg soil, from which 20.3 % were polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and 34.2 % were asphaltenes (ASF), was able to remove up 93 % of the TPH, while in unvegetated soil the TPH removal was 12.6 %. Furthermore, evaluation of the biodiversity and life forms of plant species in the impacted sites showed that phytoremediation with C. esculentus, alone or in a mix-culture with C. laxus and L. peploides, reduces the TPH to such extent that the native plant community was progressively reestablished by replacing the cultivated species resulting in the ecological recovery of the affected soil. These results demonstrate that native Cyperus species from weathered oil spill-affected sites, specifically C. esculentus and C. laxus, alone or in a mix-culture, have particular potential for phytoremediation of soils from tropical wetlands contaminated with weathered oil hydrocarbons.

Development of a standard accelerated weathering test for aggregates using dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1986-09-01

A standard accelerated weathering test using Dimethyl Sulfoxide (DMSO) was developed to simulate the chemical degradation of basaltic rocks. After a thorough study of the parameters affecting the current procedure, such as container geometry, aggrega...

Introducing seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasts in local water management. First reflections from the Messara site, Crete, Greece.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Grillakis, Manolis; Tsanis, Ioannis

2017-04-01

Seasonal prediction is recently at the center of the forecasting research efforts, especially for regions that are projected to be severely affected by global warming. The value of skillful seasonal forecasts can be considerable for many sectors and especially for the agricultural in which water users and managers can benefit to better anticipate against drought conditions. Here we present the first reflections from the user/stakeholder interactions and the design of a tailored drought decision support system in an attempt to bring seasonal predictions into local practice for the Messara valley located in the central-south area of Crete, Greece. Findings from interactions with the users and stakeholders reveal that although long range and seasonal predictions are not used, there is a strong interest for this type of information. The increase in the skill of short range weather predictions is also of great interest. The drought monitoring and prediction tool under development that support local water and agricultural management will include (a) sources of skillful short to medium term forecast information, (b) tailored drought monitoring and forecasting indices for the local groundwater aquifer and rain-fed agriculture, and (c) seasonal inflow forecasts for the local dam through hydrologic simulation to support management of freshwater resources and drought impacts on irrigated agriculture.

Weather Forecasting Systems and Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mecikalski, John (Inventor); MacKenzie, Wayne M., Jr. (Inventor); Walker, John Robert (Inventor)

2014-01-01

A weather forecasting system has weather forecasting logic that receives raw image data from a satellite. The raw image data has values indicative of light and radiance data from the Earth as measured by the satellite, and the weather forecasting logic processes such data to identify cumulus clouds within the satellite images. For each identified cumulus cloud, the weather forecasting logic applies interest field tests to determine a score indicating the likelihood of the cumulus cloud forming precipitation and/or lightning in the future within a certain time period. Based on such scores, the weather forecasting logic predicts in which geographic regions the identified cumulus clouds will produce precipitation and/or lighting within during the time period. Such predictions may then be used to provide a weather map thereby providing users with a graphical illustration of the areas predicted to be affected by precipitation within the time period.

Meteorology and Climate Inspire Secondary Science Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Charlton-Perez, Andrew; Dacre, Helen; Maskell, Kathy; Reynolds, Ross; South, Rachel; Wood, Curtis

2010-01-01

As part of its National Science and Engineering Week activities in 2009 and 2010, the University of Reading organised two open days for 60 local key stage 4 pupils. The theme of both open days was "How do we predict weather and climate?" Making use of the students' familiarity with weather and climate, several concepts of relevance to secondary…

Regional Data Assimilation of AIRS Profiles and Radiances at the SPoRT Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavodsky, Brad; Chou, Shih-hung; Jedlovec, Gary

2009-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the Short Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center's mission to improve short-term weather prediction at the regional and local scale. It includes information on the cold bias in Weather Research and Forcasting (WRF), troposphere recordings from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), and vertical resolution of analysis grid.

Space Transportation System Meteorological Expert

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beller, Arthur E.; Stafford, Sue P.

1987-01-01

The STS Meteorological Expert (STSMET) is a long-term project to acquire general Shuttle operational weather forecasting expertise specific to the launch locale, to apply it to Shuttle operational weather forecasting tasks at the Cape Canaveral Forecast Facility, and ultimately to provide an on-line real-time operational aid to the duty forecasters in performing their tasks. Particular attention is given to the development of an approach called scenario-based reasoning, with specific application to summer thunderstorms; this type of reasoning can also be applied to frontal weather phenomena, visibility including fog, and wind shear.

Ionospheric Response to Extremes in the Space Environment: Establishing Benchmarks for the Space Weather Action Plan.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viereck, R. A.; Azeem, S. I.

2017-12-01

One of the goals of the National Space Weather Action Plan is to establish extreme event benchmarks. These benchmarks are estimates of environmental parameters that impact technologies and systems during extreme space weather events. Quantitative assessment of anticipated conditions during these extreme space weather event will enable operators and users of affected technologies to develop plans for mitigating space weather risks and improve preparedness. The ionosphere is one of the most important regions of space because so many applications either depend on ionospheric space weather for their operation (HF communication, over-the-horizon radars), or can be deleteriously affected by ionospheric conditions (e.g. GNSS navigation and timing, UHF satellite communications, synthetic aperture radar, HF communications). Since the processes that influence the ionosphere vary over time scales from seconds to years, it continues to be a challenge to adequately predict its behavior in many circumstances. Estimates with large uncertainties, in excess of 100%, may result in operators of impacted technologies over or under preparing for such events. The goal of the next phase of the benchmarking activity is to reduce these uncertainties. In this presentation, we will focus on the sources of uncertainty in the ionospheric response to extreme geomagnetic storms. We will then discuss various research efforts required to better understand the underlying processes of ionospheric variability and how the uncertainties in ionospheric response to extreme space weather could be reduced and the estimates improved.

Space Weather affects on Air Transportation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, J. B. L.; Bentley, R. D.; Dyer, C.; Shaw, A.

In Europe, legislation requires the airline industry to monitor the occupational exposure of aircrew to cosmic radiation. However, there are other significant impacts of space weather phenomena on the technological systems used for day-to-day operations which need to be considered by the airlines. These were highlighted by the disruption caused to the industry by the period of significant solar activity in late October and early November 2003. Next generation aircraft will utilize increasingly complex avionics as well as expanding the performance envelopes. These and future generation platforms will require the development of a new air-space management infrastructure with improved position accuracy (for route navigation and landing in bad weather) and reduced separation minima in order to cope with the expected growth in air travel. Similarly, greater reliance will be placed upon satellites for command, control, communication and information (C3I) of the operation. However, to maximize effectiveness of this globally interoperable C3I and ensure seamless fusion of all components for a safe operation will require a greater understanding of the space weather affects, their risks with increasing technology, and the inclusion of space weather information into the operation. This paper will review space weather effects on air transport and the increasing risks for future operations cause by them. We will examine how well the effects can be predicted, some of the tools that can be used and the practicalities of using such predictions in an operational scenario. Initial results from the SOARS ESA Space Weather Pilot Project will also be discussed,

Models of Sector Aircraft Counts in the Presence of Local, Regional and Airport Constraints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulkarni, Deepak

2017-01-01

Recently, the ATM community has made important progress in collaborative trajectory management through the introduction of a new FAA traffic management initiative called a Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP). FAA can use CTOPs to manage air traffic under multiple constraints (manifested as flow constrained areas or FCAs) in the system, and it allows flight operators to indicate their preferences for routing and delay options. CTOPs also permits better management of the overall trajectory of flights by considering both routing and departure delay options simultaneously. However, adoption of CTOPs in airspace has been hampered by many factors that include challenges in how to identify constrained areas and how to set rates for the FCAs. Decision support tools providing assistance would be particularly helpful in effective use of CTOPs. Such DSTs tools would need models of demand and capacity in the presence of multiple constraints. This study examines different approaches to using historical data to create and validate models of maximum flows in sectors and other airspace regions in the presence of multiple constraints. A challenge in creating an empirical model of flows under multiple constraints is a lack of sufficient historical data that captures diverse situations involving combinations of multiple constraints especially those with severe weather. The approach taken here to deal with this is two-fold. First, we create a generalized sector model encompassing multiple sectors rather than individual sectors in order to increase the amount of data used for creating the model by an order of magnitude. Secondly, we decompose the problem so that the amount of data needed is reduced. This involves creating a baseline demand model plus a separate weather constrained flow reduction model and then composing these into a single integrated model. A nominal demand model is a flow model (gdem) in the presence of clear local weather. This defines the flow as a function of weather constraints in neighboring regions, airport constraints and weather in locations that can cause re-routes to the location of interest. A weather constrained flow reduction model (fwx-red) is a model of reduction in baseline counts as a function of local weather. Because the number of independent variables associated with each of the two decomposed models is smaller than that with a single model, need for amount of data is reduced. Finally, a composite model that combines these two can be represented as fwx-red (gdem(e), l) where e represents non-local constraints and l represents local weather. The approaches studied to developing these models are divided into three categories: (1) Point estimation models (2) Empirical models (3) Theoretical models. Errors in predictions of these different types of models have been estimated. In situations when there is abundant data, point estimation models tend to be very accurate. In contrast, empirical models do better than theoretical models when there is some data available. The biggest benefit of theoretical models is their general applicability in wider range situations once the degree of accuracy of these has been established.

KSC-06pd1278

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-28

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - At the Cape Canaveral weather station in Florida, workers release an upper-level weather balloon while several newscasters watch. The release of the balloon was part of a media tour prior to the launch of Space Shuttle Discovery on mission STS-121 July 1. The radar-tracked balloon detects wind shears that can affect a shuttle launch. At the facility, which is operated by the U.S. Air Force 45th Weather Squadron, media saw the tools used by the weather team to create the forecast for launch day. They received a briefing on how the launch weather forecast is developed by Shuttle Weather Officer Kathy Winters and met the forecasters for the space shuttle and the expendable launch vehicles. Also participating were members of the Applied Meteorology Unit who provide special expertise to the forecasters by analyzing and interpreting unusual or inconsistent weather data. The media were able to see the release of the Rawinsonde weather balloon carrying instruments aloft to be used as part of developing the forecast. Photo credit: NASA/George Shelton

KSC-06pd1277

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-28

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - At the Cape Canaveral weather station in Florida, workers carry an upper-level weather balloon outside for release. The release was part of a media tour prior to the launch of Space Shuttle Discovery on mission STS-121 July 1. The radar-tracked balloon detects wind shears that can affect a shuttle launch. At the facility, which is operated by the U.S. Air Force 45th Weather Squadron, media saw the tools used by the weather team to create the forecast for launch day. They received a briefing on how the launch weather forecast is developed by Shuttle Weather Officer Kathy Winters and met the forecasters for the space shuttle and the expendable launch vehicles. Also participating were members of the Applied Meteorology Unit who provide special expertise to the forecasters by analyzing and interpreting unusual or inconsistent weather data. The media were able to see the release of the Rawinsonde weather balloon carrying instruments aloft to be used as part of developing the forecast. Photo credit: NASA/George Shelton

KSC-06pd1280

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-28

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - An upper-level weather balloon sails into the sky after release from the Cape Canaveral weather station in Florida. The release was planned as part of a media tour prior to the launch of Space Shuttle Discovery on mission STS-121 July 1. The radar-tracked balloon detects wind shears that can affect a shuttle launch. At the facility, which is operated by the U.S. Air Force 45th Weather Squadron, media saw the tools used by the weather team to create the forecast for launch day. They received a briefing on how the launch weather forecast is developed by Shuttle Weather Officer Kathy Winters and met the forecasters for the space shuttle and the expendable launch vehicles. Also participating were members of the Applied Meteorology Unit who provide special expertise to the forecasters by analyzing and interpreting unusual or inconsistent weather data. The media were able to see the release of the Rawinsonde weather balloon carrying instruments aloft to be used as part of developing the forecast. Photo credit: NASA/George Shelton

Innovative Near Real-Time Data Dissemination Tools Developed by the Space Weather Research Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullinix, R.; Maddox, M. M.; Berrios, D.; Kuznetsova, M.; Pulkkinen, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Zheng, Y.

2012-12-01

Space weather affects virtually all of NASA's endeavors, from robotic missions to human exploration. Knowledge and prediction of space weather conditions are therefore essential to NASA operations. The diverse nature of currently available space environment measurements and modeling products compels the need for a single access point to such information. The Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) System provides this single point access along with the capability to collect and catalog a vast range of sources including both observational and model data. NASA Goddard Space Weather Research Center heavily utilizes the iSWA System daily for research, space weather model validation, and forecasting for NASA missions. iSWA provides the capabilities to view and analyze near real-time space weather data from any where in the world. This presentation will describe the technology behind the iSWA system and describe how to use the system for space weather research, forecasting, training, education, and sharing.

High potential for weathering and climate effects of non-vascular vegetation in the Late Ordovician

PubMed Central

Porada, P.; Lenton, T. M.; Pohl, A.; Weber, B.; Mander, L.; Donnadieu, Y.; Beer, C.; Pöschl, U.; Kleidon, A.

2016-01-01

It has been hypothesized that predecessors of today's bryophytes significantly increased global chemical weathering in the Late Ordovician, thus reducing atmospheric CO2 concentration and contributing to climate cooling and an interval of glaciations. Studies that try to quantify the enhancement of weathering by non-vascular vegetation, however, are usually limited to small areas and low numbers of species, which hampers extrapolating to the global scale and to past climatic conditions. Here we present a spatially explicit modelling approach to simulate global weathering by non-vascular vegetation in the Late Ordovician. We estimate a potential global weathering flux of 2.8 (km3 rock) yr−1, defined here as volume of primary minerals affected by chemical transformation. This is around three times larger than today's global chemical weathering flux. Moreover, we find that simulated weathering is highly sensitive to atmospheric CO2 concentration. This implies a strong negative feedback between weathering by non-vascular vegetation and Ordovician climate. PMID:27385026

Adapting to the Weather: Lessons from U.S. History.

PubMed

Bleakley, Hoyt; Hong, Sok Chul

2017-09-01

An important unknown in understanding the impact of climate change is the scope of adaptation, which requires observations on historical time scales. We consider how weather across U.S. history (1860-2000) has affected various measures of productivity. Using cross-sectional and panel methods, we document significant responses of agricultural and individual productivity to weather. We find strong effects of hotter and wetter weather early in U.S. history, but these effects have been attenuated in recent decades. The results suggest that estimates from a given period may be of limited use in forecasting the longer-term impacts of climate change.

Real-time analysis application for identifying bursty local areas related to emergency topics.

PubMed

Sakai, Tatsuhiro; Tamura, Keiichi

2015-01-01

Since social media started getting more attention from users on the Internet, social media has been one of the most important information source in the world. Especially, with the increasing popularity of social media, data posted on social media sites are rapidly becoming collective intelligence, which is a term used to refer to new media that is displacing traditional media. In this paper, we focus on geotagged tweets on the Twitter site. These geotagged tweets are referred to as georeferenced documents because they include not only a short text message, but also the documents' posting time and location. Many researchers have been tackling the development of new data mining techniques for georeferenced documents to identify and analyze emergency topics, such as natural disasters, weather, diseases, and other incidents. In particular, the utilization of geotagged tweets to identify and analyze natural disasters has received much attention from administrative agencies recently because some case studies have achieved compelling results. In this paper, we propose a novel real-time analysis application for identifying bursty local areas related to emergency topics. The aim of our new application is to provide new platforms that can identify and analyze the localities of emergency topics. The proposed application is composed of three core computational intelligence techniques: the Naive Bayes classifier technique, the spatiotemporal clustering technique, and the burst detection technique. Moreover, we have implemented two types of application interface: a Web application interface and an android application interface. To evaluate the proposed application, we have implemented a real-time weather observation system embedded the proposed application. we used actual crawling geotagged tweets posted on the Twitter site. The weather observation system successfully detected bursty local areas related to observed emergency weather topics.

Air Pollution and Weather: Activities and Demonstrations for Science Classes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cole, Henry S.

1973-01-01

Discusses a number of concepts (turbulence, dispersion, vertical temperature distribution, atmospheric stability and instability, and inversions) which are prerequisite to understanding how weather affects air quality. Describes classroom demonstrations effective in introducing these concepts to students at the elementary, secondary and college…

Recent weather extremes and impact agricultural production and vector-borne disease patterns

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We document significant worldwide weather anomalies that affected agriculture and vector-borne disease outbreaks during the 2010-2012 period. We utilized 2000-2012 vegetation index and land surface temperature data from NASA’s satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to ...

From local perception to global perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehner, Flavio; Stocker, Thomas F.

2015-08-01

Recent sociological studies show that over short time periods the large day-to-day, month-to-month or year-to-year variations in weather at a specific location can influence and potentially bias our perception of climate change, a more long-term and global phenomenon. By weighting local temperature anomalies with the number of people that experience them and considering longer time periods, we illustrate that the share of the world population exposed to warmer-than-normal temperatures has steadily increased during the past few decades. Therefore, warming is experienced by an increasing number of individuals, counter to what might be simply inferred from global mean temperature anomalies. This behaviour is well-captured by current climate models, offering an opportunity to increase confidence in future projections of climate change irrespective of the personal local perception of weather.

Ecology of West Nile virus across four European countries: review of weather profiles, vector population dynamics and vector control response.

PubMed

Chaskopoulou, Alexandra; L'Ambert, Gregory; Petric, Dusan; Bellini, Romeo; Zgomba, Marija; Groen, Thomas A; Marrama, Laurence; Bicout, Dominique J

2016-09-02

West Nile virus (WNV) represents a serious burden to human and animal health because of its capacity to cause unforeseen and large epidemics. Until 2004, only lineage 1 and 3 WNV strains had been found in Europe. Lineage 2 strains were initially isolated in 2004 (Hungary) and in 2008 (Austria) and for the first time caused a major WNV epidemic in 2010 in Greece with 262 clinical human cases and 35 fatalities. Since then, WNV lineage 2 outbreaks have been reported in several European countries including Italy, Serbia and Greece. Understanding the interaction of ecological factors that affect WNV transmission is crucial for preventing or decreasing the impact of future epidemics. The synchronous co-occurrence of competent mosquito vectors, virus, bird reservoir hosts, and susceptible humans is necessary for the initiation and propagation of an epidemic. Weather is the key abiotic factor influencing the life-cycles of the mosquito vector, the virus, the reservoir hosts and the interactions between them. The purpose of this paper is to review and compare mosquito population dynamics, and weather conditions, in three ecologically different contexts (urban/semi-urban, rural/agricultural, natural) across four European countries (Italy, France, Serbia, Greece) with a history of WNV outbreaks. Local control strategies will be described as well. Improving our understanding of WNV ecology is a prerequisite step for appraising and optimizing vector control strategies in Europe with the ultimate goal to minimize the probability of WNV infection.

Framing Extreme Event Attribution from the Bottom up - an Enquiry into the Social Representations of key stakeholders, of the Press and of Climate Scientists.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanderlinden, J. P.; Fellmer, M.; Capellini, N.; Meinke, I.; Remvikos, Y.; Bray, D.; Pacteau, C.; Von Storch, H.

2014-12-01

Attribution of extreme weather events has recently generated a lot of interest simultaneously within the general public, the scientific community, and stakeholders affected by meteorological extremes. This interest calls for the need to explore the potential convergence of the current atttribution science with the desire and needs of stakeholders. Such an euiry contributes to the development of climate services aiming at quantifying the human responsibility for particular events. Through interviews with climate scientists, through the analysis of the press coverage of extreme meteorological events, and through stakeholder (private sector, covernment services and local and regional government) focus groups, we analyze how social representations of the concepts associated with extreme event attribution are theorized. From the corpuses generated in the course of this enquiry, we build up a grounded, bottom-up, theorization of extreme weather event attribution. This bottom-up theorization allows for a framing of the potential climate services in a way that is attuned to the needs and expectations of the stakeholders. From apparently simple formulations: "what is an extreme event?", "what makes it extreme?", "what is meant by attribution of extreme weather events?", "what do we want to attribute?", "what is a climate service?", we demonstrate the polysemy of these terms and propose ways to address the challenges associated with the juxtaposition of four highly loaded concepts: extreme - event - attribution - climate services.

Summer of sorrow: measuring exposure to and impacts of trauma after Queensland's natural disasters of 2010-2011.

PubMed

Clemens, Susan L; Berry, Helen L; McDermott, Brett M; Harper, Catherine M

2013-10-21

To assess the population prevalence of property, income and emotional impacts of the 2010-2011 Queensland floods and cyclones. Cross-sectional telephone-based survey using a brief trauma exposure and impact screening instrument, conducted between 11 March and 6 June 2011, of 6104 adults who answered natural disaster and mental health questions. Natural disaster property damage exposure and emotional wellbeing impacts. Two-thirds of respondents (62%) reported being affected by the disasters, with property damage exposure ranging from 37.2% (suburb or local area) to 9.2% (own home, with 2.1% living elsewhere at least temporarily). Income was reduced for 17.0% of respondents and 11.7% of income-producing property owners reported damage to those properties. Trauma impacts ranged from 14.3% of respondents feeling "terrified, helpless or hopeless" to 3.9% thinking they might be "badly injured or die". Up to 5 months after the disasters, 7.1% of respondents were "still distressed" and 8.6% were "worried about how they would manage". Adults of working age and residents of regional and remote areas and of socioeconomically disadvantaged areas were disproportionately likely to report exposure to damage and emotional impacts. Weather-related disasters exact a large toll on the population through property damage and resultant emotional effects. Vulnerable subpopulations are more severely affected. There is a need for realistic, cost-effective and rapid-deployment mass interventions in the event of weather disasters.

National Weather Service Warning Performance Based on the WSR-88D.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polger, Paul D.; Goldsmith, Barry S.; Przywarty, Richard C.; Bocchieri, Joseph R.

1994-02-01

The National Weather Service (NWS) began operational use of the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) system in March 1991 at Norman, Oklahoma. WSR-88D data have been available to forecasters at five additional offices: Melbourne, Florida, and sterling, Virginia (since January 1992); St. Louis, Missouri, and Dodge City, Kansas (since March 1992); and Houston, Texas (since April 1992). The performance of the severe local storm and flash flood warning programs at the six offices before and after the availability of the WSR-88D was measured quantitatively. The verification procedures and statistical measures used in the quantitative evaluation were those used operationally by the NWS.The statistics show that the warnings improved dramatically when the WSR-88D was in operation. Specifically, the probability of detection of severe weather events increased and the number of false alarms decreased. There was also a marked improvement in the lead time for all severe local storm and flash flood events. These improvements were evident throughout the effective range of the radar. Stratification of severe local storm data by severe thunderstorms versus tornadoes revealed an improvement in the NWS's ability to differentiate between tornadic and nontornadic storms when the WSR-88D was in operation. Four individual cases are examined to illustrate how forecasters used the WSR-88D to achieve the improved results. These cases focus on the unique features of the WSR-88D that provide an advantage over conventional NWS radars.

Raising Awareness about Climate Change in Pacific Communities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McNamara, Karen Elizabeth

2013-01-01

Community-based climate change projects in the Pacific typically seek to raise the awareness of locals about the consequences of climate change and changing weather patterns. A key concern is that such activities might be done in an ad hoc manner, with little consideration of local relevance, audience and the integration of local experiences and…

Range-Specific High-Resolution Mesoscale Model Setup: Data Assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.

2014-01-01

Mesoscale weather conditions can have an adverse effect on space launch, landing, and ground processing at the Eastern Range (ER) in Florida and Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) in Virginia. During summer, land-sea interactions across Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) lead to sea breeze front formation, which can spawn deep convection that can hinder operations and endanger personnel and resources. Many other weak locally driven low-level boundaries and their interactions with the sea breeze front and each other can also initiate deep convection in the KSC/CCAFS area. Some of these other boundaries include the Indian River breeze front, Banana River breeze front, outflows from previous convection, horizontal convective rolls, convergence lines from other inland bodies of water such as Lake Okeechobee, the trailing convergence line from convergence of sea breeze fronts due to the shape of Cape Canaveral, frictional convergence lines from the islands in the Bahamas, convergence lines from soil moisture differences, convergence lines from cloud shading, and others. All these subtle weak boundary interactions often make forecasting of operationally important weather very difficult at KSC/CCAFS during the convective season (May-Oct). These convective processes often build quickly, last a short time (60 minutes or less), and occur over small distances, all of which also poses a significant challenge to the local forecasters who are responsible for issuing weather advisories, watches, and warnings. Surface winds during the transition seasons of spring and fall pose the most difficulties for the forecasters at WFF. They also encounter problems forecasting convective activity and temperature during those seasons. Therefore, accurate mesoscale model forecasts are needed to aid in their decision making. Both the ER and WFF would benefit greatly from high-resolution mesoscale model output to better forecast a variety of unique weather phenomena. Global and national scale models cannot properly resolve important local-scale weather features at each location due to their horizontal resolutions being much too coarse. Therefore, a properly tuned model at a high resolution is needed to provide improved capability. This task is a multi-year effort in which the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) will tune the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model individually for each range. The goal of the first year, the results of which are in this report, was to tune the WRF model based on the best model resolution and run time while using reasonable computing capabilities. To accomplish this, the ER and WFF supported the tasking of the AMU to perform a number of sensitivity tests in order to determine the best model configuration for operational use at each of the ranges to best predict winds, precipitation, and temperature (Watson 2013). This task is a continuation of that work and will provide a recommended local data assimilation (DA) and numerical forecast model design optimized for the ER and WFF to support space launch activities. The model will be optimized for local weather challenges at both ranges.

CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND HUMAN HEALTH

EPA Science Inventory

Human health and well-being are and will be affected by climate change, both directly through changes in extreme weather events and indirectly through weather induced changes in societal systems and their supporting ecosystems. The goal of this study was to develop and apply a b...

A predictive model for spotted wilt epidemics in peanut based on local weather conditions and the tomato spotted wilt virus risk index.

PubMed

Olatinwo, R O; Paz, J O; Brown, S L; Kemerait, R C; Culbreath, A K; Beasley, J P; Hoogenboom, G

2008-10-01

Tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV), a member of the genus Tospovirus (family Bunyaviridae), is an important plant virus that causes severe damage to peanut (Arachis hypogaea) in the southeastern United States. Disease severity has been extremely variable in individual fields in Georgia, due to several factors including variability in weather patterns. A TSWV risk index has been developed by the University of Georgia to aid peanut growers with the assessment and avoidance of high risk situations. This study was conducted to examine the relationship between weather parameters and spotted wilt severity in peanut, and to develop a predictive model that integrates localized weather information into the risk index. On-farm survey data collected during 1999, 2002, 2004, and 2005 growing seasons, and derived weather variables during the same years were analyzed using nonlinear and multiple regression analyses. Meteorological data were obtained from the Georgia Automated Environmental Monitoring Network. The best model explained 61% of the variation in spotted wilt severity (square root transformed) as a function of the interactions between the TSWV risk index, the average daily temperature in April (TavA), the average daily minimum temperature between March and April (TminMA), the accumulated rainfall in March (RainfallM), the accumulated rainfall in April (RainfallA), the number of rain days in April (RainDayA), evapotranspiration in April (EVTA), and the number of days from 1 January to the planting date (JulianDay). Integrating this weather-based model with the TSWV risk index may help peanut growers more effectively manage tomato spotted wilt disease.

Implementation of weather stations at Ghanaian high schools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pieron, M.

2012-04-01

The Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (www.tahmo.org) is an initiative that aims to develop a dense weather observation network in Sub-Sahara Africa. The ambition is to have 20.000 low-cost innovative weather stations in place in 2015. An increased amount of weather data is locally required to provide stakeholders that are dependent on the weather, such as farmers and fishermen, with accurate forecasts. As a first proof of concept, showing that sensors can be built at costs lower than commercially available, a disdrometer was developed. In parallel with the design of the measurement instruments, a high school curriculum is developed that covers environmental sciences. In order to find out which requirements the TAHMO weather station and accompanying educational materials should meet for optimal use at Junior High Schools research was done at Ghanaian schools. Useful insights regarding the future African context of the weather station and requirements for an implementation strategy were obtained during workshops with teachers and students, visits to WMO observatories and case studies regarding use of educational materials. The poster presents the conclusions of this research, which is part of the bigger TAHMO framework.

Assessment of weather-associated causes of red spruce winter injury and consequences to aboveground carbon sequestration

Treesearch

Paul G. Schaberg; Brynne E. Lazarus; Gary J. Hawley; Joshua M. Halman; Catherine H. Borer; Christopher F. Hansen

2011-01-01

Despite considerable study, it remains uncertain what environmental factors contribute to red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) foliar winter injury and how much this injury influences tree C stores. We used a long-term record of winter injury in a plantation in New Hampshire and conducted stepwise linear regression analyses with local weather and regional...

Ionosphere-related products for communication and navigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobiska, W.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Carlson, H. C.; Gardner, L. C.; Scherliess, L.; Zhu, L.

2011-12-01

Space weather's effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the energy transfer processes from the Sun's photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the ionosphere is the key region that affects communication and navigation systems. The Utah State University (USU) Space Weather Center (SWC) is developing and producing commercial space weather applications. A key system-level component for providing timely information about the effects of space weather is the Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) system. GAIM, operated by SWC, improves real-time communication and navigation systems by continuously ingesting up to 10,000 slant TEC measurements every 15-minutes from approximately 500 stations. Ionosonde data from several dozen global stations is ingested every 15 minutes to improve the vertical profiles within GAIM. The global, CONUS, Europe, Asia, South America, and other regional sectors are run with a 15-minute cadence. These operational runs enable SWC to calculate and report the global radio high frequency (HF) signal strengths and near vertical incidence skywave (NVIS) maps used by amateur radio operators and emergency responders, especially during the Japan Great Earthquake and tsunami recovery period. SWC has established its first fully commercial enterprise called Q-up as a result of this activity. GPS uncertainty maps are produced by SWC to improve single-frequency GPS applications. SWC also provides the space weather smartphone app called SpaceWx for iPhone, iPad, iPod, and Android for professional users and public space weather education. SpaceWx displays the real-time solar, heliosphere, magnetosphere, thermosphere, and ionosphere drivers to changes in the total electron content, for example, as well as global NVIS maps. We describe upcoming improvements for moving space weather information through automated systems into final derivative products.

What If We Had A Magnetograph at Lagrangian L5?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pevtsov, Alexei A.; Bertello, Luca; MacNeice, Peter; Petrie, Gordon

2016-01-01

Synoptic Carrington charts of magnetic field are routinely used as an input for modelings of solar wind and other aspects of space weather forecast. However, these maps are constructed using only the observations from the solar hemisphere facing Earth. The evolution of magnetic flux on the "farside" of the Sun, which may affect the topology of coronal field in the "nearside," is largely ignored. It is commonly accepted that placing a magnetograph in Lagrangian L5 point would improve the space weather forecast. However, the quantitative estimates of anticipated improvements have been lacking. We use longitudinal magnetograms from the Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) to investigate how adding data from L5 point would affect the outcome of two major models used in space weather forecast.

Upgrade Summer Severe Weather Tool in MIDDS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, Mark M.

2010-01-01

The goal of this task was to upgrade the severe weather database from the previous phase by adding weather observations from the years 2004 - 2009, re-analyze the data to determine the important parameters, make adjustments to the index weights depending on the analysis results, and update the MIDDS GUI. The added data increased the period of record from 15 to 21 years. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. Four of the stability indices showed increased severe weather predication. The Total Threat Score (TTS) of the previous work was verified for the warm season of 2009 with very good skill. The TTS Probability of Detection (POD) was 88% and the False alarm rate (FAR) of 8%. Based on the results of the analyses, the MIDDS Severe Weather Worksheet GUI was updated to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters and synoptic-scale dynamics.

Do weather changes influence pain levels in women with fibromyalgia, and can psychosocial variables moderate these influences?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smedslund, Geir; Eide, Hilde; Kristjansdottir, Ólöf Birna; Nes, Andrea Aparecida Gonçalves; Sexton, Harold; Fors, Egil A.

2014-09-01

The aim of this study was to examine the association between fibromyalgia pain and weather, and to investigate whether psychosocial factors influence this relationship. Women with chronic widespread pain/fibromyalgia ( N = 50) enrolled in a larger study, were recruited from a 4-week inpatient rehabilitation program in Norway ( 2009-2010), and reported their pain and psychological factors up to three times per day (morning, afternoon, evening) for 5 weeks. These ratings were then related to the official local weather parameters. Barometric pressure recorded simultaneously impacted pain significantly while temperature, relative humidity, and solar flux did not. No psychological variables influenced the weather-pain interaction. No weather parameter predicted change in the subsequent pain measures. The magnitude of the inverse association between pain and barometric pressure was very small, and none of the psychological variables studied influenced the association between pain and barometric pressure. All in all, the evidence for a strong weather-pain association in fibromyalgia seems limited at best.

Preventing fraud and abuse in low income weatherization programs: The proceedings of the EORI (Economic Opportunity Research Institute) Roundtable

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1987-01-01

The Economic Opportunity Research Institute (EORI) sponsored a national Roundtable on ''Prevention of Fraud and Abuse in Low Income Weatherization Programs'' in Washington, DC on March 23-24, 1987. Funding for the Roundtable and these Proceedings was provided jointly by the US Departments of Health and Human Services/Office of Family Assistance and Energy through Grant FG01-85CE63438. The purpose of the Roundtable was two-fold: (1) to share successful and possible replicable state and local measures to prevent fraud and abuse in low income conservation programs; and (2) to identify any areas in these programs where the potential for fraud and abuse maymore » exist and examine methods to curb such potential. A Task Force representing eight states and including both state and local low income conservation program operators was chosen by EORI and the HHS Office of Family Assistance. The Agencies represented had developed successful preventive approaches to curbing fraud and abuse. Additional participants in the Roundtable included representatives from the US Department of Energy, Weatherization Assistance Program Office and the HHS Office of Energy Assistance, along with other state and local program operators.« less

NASA Sees Storms Affecting the Western U.S.

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

Extreme rain events have been affecting California and snow has blanketed the Pacific Northwest. This visible image from NASA's Aqua satellite on Jan. 6, 2017, at 3:35 p.m. EST (20:35 UTC) shows snow cover in the U.S. Pacific Northwest in Washington, Idaho, Oregon, northern California and Nevada. On Jan. 9, another area of low pressure moved over Oregon, where the National Weather Service is forecasting heavy snows. It was the same week last year that the West Coast endured a similar bout of very wet weather. Heavy rain affected the Pacific coast in 2016 during the same week from Jan. 5 through Jan. 7, as a progression of storm systems in the Eastern Pacific Ocean hit southern California and generated flooding and mudslides. For updated forecasts, visit the National Weather Service website at: www.weather.gov Learn more about NASA's view of the storm: go.nasa.gov/2j0xpvW Credits: NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Analysis of Multi-Flight Common Routes for Traffic Flow Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheth, Kapil; Clymer, Alexis; Morando, Alex; Shih, Fu-Tai

2016-01-01

When severe convective weather requires rerouting aircraft, FAA traffic managers employ severe weather avoidance plans (e.g., Playbook routes, Coded Departure Routes, etc.) These routes provide pilots with safe paths around weather-affected regions, and provide controllers with predictable, and often well-established flight plans. However, they often introduce large deviations to the nominal flight plans, which may not be necessary as weather conditions change. If and when the imposed traffic management initiatives (TMIs) become stale, updated shorter path flight trajectories may be found en route, providing significant time-savings to the affected flights. Multiple Flight Common Routes (MFCR) is a concept that allows multiple flights that are within a specified proximity or region, to receive updated shorter flight plans in an operationally efficient manner. MFCR is believed to provide benefits to the National Airspace System (NAS) by allowing traffic managers to update several flight plans of en route aircraft simultaneously, reducing operational workload within the TMUs of all affected ARTCCs. This paper will explore some aspects of the MFCR concept by analyzing multiple flights that have been selected for rerouting by the NAS Constraint Evaluation and Notification Tool (NASCENT). Various methods of grouping aircraft with common or similar routes will be presented, along with a comparison of the efficacy of these methods.

Weather during bloom affects pollination and yield of highbush blueberry.

PubMed

Tuell, Julianna K; Isaacs, Rufus

2010-06-01

Weather plays an important role in spring-blooming fruit crops due to the combined effects on bee activity, flower opening, pollen germination, and fertilization. To determine the effects of weather on highbush blueberry, Vaccinium corymbosum L., productivity, we monitored bee activity and compared fruit set, weight, and seed number in a field stocked with honey bees, Apis mellifera L., and common eastern bumble bees, Bombus impatiens (Cresson). Flowers were subjected to one of five treatments during bloom: enclosed, open, open during poor weather only, open during good weather only, or open during poor and good weather. Fewer bees of all types were observed foraging and fewer pollen foragers returned to colonies during poor weather than during good weather. There were also changes in foraging community composition: honey bees dominated during good weather, whereas bumble bees dominated during poor weather. Berries from flowers exposed only during poor weather had higher fruit set in 1 yr and higher berry weight in the other year compared with enclosed clusters. In both years, clusters exposed only during good weather had > 5 times as many mature seeds, weighed twice as much, and had double the fruit set of those not exposed. No significant increase over flowers exposed during good weather was observed when clusters were exposed during good and poor weather. Our results are discussed in terms of the role of weather during bloom on the contribution of bees adapted to foraging during cool conditions.

Healthy Housing Opportunities During Weatherization Work

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilson, J.; Tohn, E.

2011-03-01

In the summer and early fall of 2010, the National Center for Healthy Housing interviewed people from a selection of state and local agencies that perform weatherizations on low-income housing in order to gauge their approach to improving the health and safety of the homes. The interviews provided a strong cross section of what work agencies can do, and how they go about funding this work when funds from the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) do not cover the full extent of the repairs. The report also makes recommendations for WAP in how to assist agencies to streamline and maximize themore » health and safety repairs they are able to make in the course of a standard weatherization.« less

Deep Learning for Extreme Weather Detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabhat, M.; Racah, E.; Biard, J.; Liu, Y.; Mudigonda, M.; Kashinath, K.; Beckham, C.; Maharaj, T.; Kahou, S.; Pal, C.; O'Brien, T. A.; Wehner, M. F.; Kunkel, K.; Collins, W. D.

2017-12-01

We will present our latest results from the application of Deep Learning methods for detecting, localizing and segmenting extreme weather patterns in climate data. We have successfully applied supervised convolutional architectures for the binary classification tasks of detecting tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers in centered, cropped patches. We have subsequently extended our architecture to a semi-supervised formulation, which is capable of learning a unified representation of multiple weather patterns, predicting bounding boxes and object categories, and has the capability to detect novel patterns (w/ few, or no labels). We will briefly present our efforts in scaling the semi-supervised architecture to 9600 nodes of the Cori supercomputer, obtaining 15PF performance. Time permitting, we will highlight our efforts in pixel-level segmentation of weather patterns.

Impacts of wind farms on surface air temperatures

PubMed Central

Baidya Roy, Somnath; Traiteur, Justin J.

2010-01-01

Utility-scale large wind farms are rapidly growing in size and numbers all over the world. Data from a meteorological field campaign show that such wind farms can significantly affect near-surface air temperatures. These effects result from enhanced vertical mixing due to turbulence generated by wind turbine rotors. The impacts of wind farms on local weather can be minimized by changing rotor design or by siting wind farms in regions with high natural turbulence. Using a 25-y-long climate dataset, we identified such regions in the world. Many of these regions, such as the Midwest and Great Plains in the United States, are also rich in wind resources, making them ideal candidates for low-impact wind farms. PMID:20921371

Warm Homes, Greener Living: Reducing Energy Poverty in Daniel McIntyre and St. Matthews through Energy Retrofits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulz, Kari

This research examines energy poverty in the Daniel McIntyre and St. Matthews (DMSM) neighbourhoods in the city of Winnipeg. Energy poverty, defined as households spending more than 6% of their income on energy expenditures, affects as many as 50% of households in DMSM. Energy poverty can be alleviated through energy retrofits for dwellings such as weather stripping; increasing insulation in exterior walls, the attic and basement; and installing a high-efficiency furnace. The recommendations include: establishing consistent housing and energy efficiency policies; increasing the flexibility of utility on-bill financing; levying the necessary capital for energy retrofits through municipal financing mechanisms; increasing the knowledge and capacity of local residents; increasing the knowledge and capacity of local contractors for sustainable design and construction; creating a provincial strategy to increase the energy efficiency of social housing; developing low-income energy efficiency programs for rental properties; and increasing access to renewable energy sources.

Heat Waves, Droughts, and Preferences for Environmental Policy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Owen, Ann L.; Conover, Emily; Videras, Julio; Wu, Stephen

2012-01-01

Using data from a new household survey on environmental attitudes, behaviors, and policy preferences, we find that current weather conditions affect preferences for environmental regulation. Individuals who have recently experienced extreme weather (heat waves or droughts) are more likely to support laws to protect the environment. We find…

Seasonal weather-related decision making for cattle production in the Northern Great Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

High inter-annual variability of seasonal weather patterns can greatly affect forage and therefore livestock production in the Northern Great Plains. This variability can make it difficult for ranchers to set yearly stocking rates, particularly in advance of the grazing season. To better understand ...

Climate change and health effects in Northwest Alaska.

PubMed

Brubaker, Michael; Berner, James; Chavan, Raj; Warren, John

2011-01-01

This article provides examples of adverse health effects, including weather-related injury, food insecurity, mental health issues, and water infrastructure damage, and the responses to these effects that are currently being applied in two Northwest Alaska communities. In Northwest Alaska, warming is resulting in a broad range of unusual weather and environmental conditions, including delayed freeze-up, earlier breakup, storm surge, coastal erosion, and thawing permafrost. These are just some of the climate impacts that are driving concerns about weather-related injury, the spread of disease, mental health issues, infrastructure damage, and food and water security. Local leaders are challenged to identify appropriate adaptation strategies to address climate impacts and related health effects. IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS: The tribal health system is combining local observations, traditional knowledge, and western science to perform community-specific climate change health impact assessments. Local leaders are applying this information to develop adaptation responses. The Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium will describe relationships between climate impacts and health effects and provide examples of community-scaled adaptation actions currently being applied in Northwest Alaska. Climate change is increasing vulnerability to injury, disease, mental stress, food insecurity, and water insecurity. Northwest communities are applying adaptation approaches that are both specific and appropriate. The health impact assessment process is effective in raising awareness, encouraging discussion, engaging partners, and implementing adaptation planning. With community-specific information, local leaders are applying health protective adaptation measures.

Climate change and health effects in Northwest Alaska

PubMed Central

Brubaker, Michael; Berner, James; Chavan, Raj; Warren, John

2011-01-01

This article provides examples of adverse health effects, including weather-related injury, food insecurity, mental health issues, and water infrastructure damage, and the responses to these effects that are currently being applied in two Northwest Alaska communities. Background In Northwest Alaska, warming is resulting in a broad range of unusual weather and environmental conditions, including delayed freeze-up, earlier breakup, storm surge, coastal erosion, and thawing permafrost. These are just some of the climate impacts that are driving concerns about weather-related injury, the spread of disease, mental health issues, infrastructure damage, and food and water security. Local leaders are challenged to identify appropriate adaptation strategies to address climate impacts and related health effects. Implementation process The tribal health system is combining local observations, traditional knowledge, and western science to perform community-specific climate change health impact assessments. Local leaders are applying this information to develop adaptation responses. Objective The Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium will describe relationships between climate impacts and health effects and provide examples of community-scaled adaptation actions currently being applied in Northwest Alaska. Findings Climate change is increasing vulnerability to injury, disease, mental stress, food insecurity, and water insecurity. Northwest communities are applying adaptation approaches that are both specific and appropriate. Conclusion The health impact assessment process is effective in raising awareness, encouraging discussion, engaging partners, and implementing adaptation planning. With community-specific information, local leaders are applying health protective adaptation measures. PMID:22022304

A Sounding-based Severe Weather Tool to Support Daily Operations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H.; Roeder, William P.

2014-01-01

People and property at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are at risk when severe weather occurs. Strong winds, hail and tornadoes can injure individuals and cause costly damage to structures if not properly protected. NASA's Launch Services Program and Ground Systems Development and Operations Program and other KSC programs use the daily and weekly severe weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) to determine if they need to limit an activity such as working on gantries, or protect property such as a vehicle on a pad. The 45 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a warm season (May-September) severe weather tool for use in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) based on the late morning, 1500 UTC (1100 local time), CCAFS (XMR) sounding. The 45 WS frequently makes decisions to issue a severe weather watch and other severe weather warning support products to NASA and the 45th Space Wing in the late morning, after the 1500 UTC sounding. The results of this work indicate that certain stability indices based on the late morning XMR soundings can depict differences between days with reported severe weather and days with no reported severe weather. The AMU determined a frequency of reported severe weather for the stability indices and implemented an operational tool in MIDDS.

Severe Weather Tool using 1500 UTC Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Soundings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III

2013-01-01

People and property at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are at risk when severe weather occurs. Strong winds, hail and tornadoes can injure individuals and cause costly damage to structures if not properly protected. NASA's Launch Services Program and Ground Systems Development and Operations Program and other KSC programs use the daily and weekly severe weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) to determine if they need to limit an activity such as working on gantries, or protect property such as a vehicle on a pad. The 45 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a warm season (May-September) severe weather tool for use in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) based on the late morning, 1500 UTC (1100 local time), CCAFS (XMR) sounding. The 45 WS frequently makes decisions to issue a severe weather watch and other severe weather warning support products to NASA and the 45th Space Wing in the late morning, after the 1500 UTC sounding. The results of this work indicate that certain stability indices based on the late morning XMR soundings can depict differences between days with reported severe weather and days with no reported severe weather. The AMU determined a frequency of reported severe weather for the stability indices and implemented an operational tool in MIDDS.

Weathering of the New Albany Shale, Kentucky: II. Redistribution of minor and trace elements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tuttle, M.L.W.; Breit, G.N.; Goldhaber, M.B.

2009-01-01

During weathering, elements enriched in black shale are dispersed in the environment by aqueous and mechanical transport. Here a unique evaluation of the differential release, transport, and fate of Fe and 15 trace elements during progressive weathering of the Devonian New Albany Shale in Kentucky is presented. Results of chemical analyses along a weathering profile (unweathered through progressively weathered shale to soil) describe the chemically distinct pathways of the trace elements and the rate that elements are transferred into the broader, local environment. Trace elements enriched in the unweathered shale are in massive or framboidal pyrite, minor sphalerite, CuS and NiS phases, organic matter and clay minerals. These phases are subject to varying degrees and rates of alteration along the profile. Cadmium, Co, Mn, Ni, and Zn are removed from weathered shale during sulfide-mineral oxidation and transported primarily in aqueous solution. The aqueous fluxes for these trace elements range from 0.1 g/ha/a (Cd) to 44 g/ha/a (Mn). When hydrologic and climatic conditions are favorable, solutions seep to surface exposures, evaporate, and form Fe-sulfate efflorescent salts rich in these elements. Elements that remain dissolved in the low pH (<4) streams and groundwater draining New Albany Shale watersheds become fixed by reactions that increase pH. Neutralization of the weathering solution in local streams results in elements being adsorbed and precipitated onto sediment surfaces, resulting in trace element anomalies. Other elements are strongly adsorbed or structurally bound to solid phases during weathering. Copper and U initially are concentrated in weathering solutions, but become fixed to modern plant litter in soil formed on New Albany Shale. Molybdenum, Pb, Sb, and Se are released from sulfide minerals and organic matter by oxidation and accumulate in Fe-oxyhydroxide clay coatings that concentrate in surface soil during illuviation. Chromium, Ti, and V are strongly correlated with clay abundance and considered to be in the structure of illitic clay. Illite undergoes minimal alteration during weathering and is concentrated during illuvial processes. Arsenic concentration increases across the weathering profile and is associated with the succession of secondary Fe(III) minerals that form with progressive weathering. Detrital fluxes of particle-bound trace elements range from 0.1 g/ha/a (Sb) to 8 g/ha/a (Mo). Although many of the elements are concentrated in the stream sediments, changes in pH and redox conditions along the sediment transport path could facilitate their release for aqueous transport.

The Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory project; an overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hut, Rolf; van de Giesen, Nick

2010-05-01

With the TAHMO project we are "designing" / "building" / "proof of concepting" a 100 weather station for the tropics. The main goal of the TAHMO project is to understand better Africa's environment through participatory sensing, scientific modeling and education. We believe that the quality of measurement data is directly related to the value the measurement itself has to the one doing the measurement . Ideally, measurements are done by the farmers, watermanagers, etc that have a need for this data as well. For local stakeholders in Africa though, acquiring good modern measurement equipment is virtually impossible. Furthermore, local stakeholders not only need local (point) measurements: they also need spatial information: is it raining at my neighbor? Is this drizzle the start of the rainy season, or is it a small cloud passing over? Representing whole nations with just one weather station does not help answer these questions. Multiple, spatially distributed weather stations are needed to supply local stakeholders with the information needed to make vital decisions based on solid data. Both global circulation models and regional climate models need measured data. Firstly to calibrate parameters in the model and to validate the model structure. Secondly, in a data assimilation scheme, to update predictions with measurements to decrease the uncertainty in future predictions. For Africa the amount of measured data is so scarce that both the uncertainty in the calibrated parameters, as well as the uncertainty in future predictions is quite large. Because of the "motor of the climate" that Africa is, this has a large impact on the total uncertainty in climate models. Having more (ground truth) measurements with which to confront our models would decrease the uncertainty in current models and forecasts tremendously. Doing measurements is not a part of the standard curriculum in any African country, whilst it is, in our opinion, a vital part of any scientific education. This is not because a lack of interest, nor intelligence, but simply because the materials to conduct experiments are not available. Whilst any American or European primary school has a supply of thermometers, barometers, etc. this (relative) expensive equipment is not available in an African setting. This way Africans (future) scientist, but also its (future) politicians, watermanagers, farmers, etc. don't learn the importance (and not to forget: fun) of doing measurements. The 100 weather station is our answer to the issues mentioned above. The basic idea is to have 20.000 weather stations across Africa, at local schools. With the weather station we intend to: -give local people access to climate data on their own region, relevant to their daily lives. -provide climate scientists with a huge new amount of data: 20.000 new measuring station in Africa, recording real time data for them to incorporate in their models -train a new generation on how to do measurements and on the benefits those measurements have. As a first step, students at Delft university showed that it is possible to build an acoustic disdrometer that costs lest than 20 dollar to produce. To move this project into the next gear, we are following two parallel tracks: First, we are developing the weather station, together with a commercial partner. Secondly, we are going to do a pilot project in Africa: We want to have a student in education go to a specific region (probably Ghana, because of contacts we have from previous projects) armed with a weather station and give him/her the assignment to develop a curriculum around the station, to be used in local schools. The follow up of this is to send a group of students with weather stations (10-20) to a region and have them place the stations at all schools in the region. Timewise, we hope to have this first pilot project done within the next two years. Somewhere in the year after that, the extended pilot can take place. Since we hope to send this group out with a first prototypy of the station, we would also like to finish a first prototype in the next two years. Five years from now, we hope that the majority of the 20.000 stations have been installed.

The impact of weather on human health.

PubMed

Sulman, F G

1984-01-01

The impact of weather on human health is a well-known fact, yet, alas, neglected in the past. Bioclimatology, a vast field of medical knowledge, has only been developed in the past few years. It shows that the air we breathe has a profound influence on our well-being. Electrical charges of the air, such as ions, spherics and electrofields can affect our endocrine, vegetative and autonomous nerve system. It may even be responsible for post-operative thromboembolism. The present article describes weather reactions, electric radiations, climate rhythm, medical aspects of weather changes, and their effect on health and disease. Special devotion is also given to the manifestations of evil winds.

Optimized circulation and weather type classifications relating large-scale atmospheric conditions to local PM10 concentrations in Bavaria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weitnauer, C.; Beck, C.; Jacobeit, J.

2013-12-01

In the last decades the critical increase of the emission of air pollutants like nitrogen dioxide, sulfur oxides and particulate matter especially in urban areas has become a problem for the environment as well as human health. Several studies confirm a risk of high concentration episodes of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 10 μm (PM10) for the respiratory tract or cardiovascular diseases. Furthermore it is known that local meteorological and large scale atmospheric conditions are important influencing factors on local PM10 concentrations. With climate changing rapidly, these connections need to be better understood in order to provide estimates of climate change related consequences for air quality management purposes. For quantifying the link between large-scale atmospheric conditions and local PM10 concentrations circulation- and weather type classifications are used in a number of studies by using different statistical approaches. Thus far only few systematic attempts have been made to modify consisting or to develop new weather- and circulation type classifications in order to improve their ability to resolve local PM10 concentrations. In this contribution existing weather- and circulation type classifications, performed on daily 2.5 x 2.5 gridded parameters of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set, are optimized with regard to their discriminative power for local PM10 concentrations at 49 Bavarian measurement sites for the period 1980 to 2011. Most of the PM10 stations are situated in urban areas covering urban background, traffic and industry related pollution regimes. The range of regimes is extended by a few rural background stations. To characterize the correspondence between the PM10 measurements of the different stations by spatial patterns, a regionalization by an s-mode principal component analysis is realized on the high-pass filtered data. The optimization of the circulation- and weather types is implemented using two representative classification approaches, a k-means cluster analysis and an objective version of the Grosswetter types. They have been run with varying spatial and temporal settings as well as modified numbers of classes. As an evaluation metric for their performance several skill scores are used. Taking into account the outcome further attempts towards the optimization of circulation type classifications are made. These are varying meteorological input parameters (e.g. geopotential height, zonal and meridional wind, specific humidity, temperature) on several pressure levels (1000, 850 and 500 hPa) and combinations of these variables. All classification variants are again evaluated. Based on these analyses it is further intended to develop robust downscaling models for estimating possible future - climate change induced - variations of local PM10 concentrations in Bavaria from scenario runs of global CMIP5 climate models.

Meteoalarm severe wind gust thresholds from uniform periods in ECA&D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wijnant, I. L.

2010-09-01

The main aim of our work is to propose new thresholds for Meteoalarm severe weather warnings which are based on the local climate, specifically for the severe wind gust warnings because the variability of these thresholds is currently rather extreme and unrealistic. In order to achieve this we added validated wind data to the database of the European Climate Assessment and Database project (ECA&D) and analysed them. We also developed wind related indices for ECA&D in order to facilitate further research. Since 2007 most of the severe weather warnings issued by the National Weather Services in Europe can be found on one website: www.meteoalarm.eu. For the 30 participating countries colour codes (yellow, orange, red) are presented on a map of Europe to reflect the severity of the weather event and its possible impact. The thresholds used for these colour codes obviously depend on the type of severe weather, but should also reflect local climate (for example: identical heat waves will have a more significant impact in Sweden than in Spain). The current Meteoalarm guideline is to issue second level warnings (orange) 1-30 times a year and third level warnings (red) less than once a year (being the total number of warnings from a specific country for all of the different sorts of severe weather events in that year). There is no similar guideline for specific sorts of severe weather events and participating countries choose their own thresholds. As a result we see unrealistic differences in the frequency and thresholds of the warnings for neighbouring countries. New thresholds based on return values would reflect the local climate of each country and give a more uniform indication of the social impact. Additionally, without uniform definitions of severe weather it remains difficult to determine if severe weather in Europe is changing. ECA&D receives long series of daily data from 62 countries throughout Europe and the Mediterranean. So far we have 7 countries that provide us with wind data. Quality control and homogeneity tests are conducted on all data before analysis is carried out. For wind data the standard ECA&D homogeneity tests (SNHT, Pettitt, Buishand and Von Neuman Ratio) are performed on the wind gust factor (the ratio of the maximum daily gust to the daily average wind speed) and a relatively new test (Petrovic's ReDistribution Method) on wind direction data. For the Dutch data we compared the results of the homogeneity tests with the available meta-data. Inhomogeneous series are not corrected but the older part (before the most recent break) is excluded from further analysis.

NOAA Climate Information and Tools for Decision Support Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timofeyeva, M. M.; Higgins, W.; Strager, C.; Horsfall, F. M.

2013-12-01

NOAA is an active participant of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) contributing data, information, analytical capabilities, forecasts, and decision support services to the Climate Services Partnership (CSP). These contributions emerge from NOAA's own climate services, which have evolved to respond to the urgent and growing need for reliable, trusted, transparent, and timely climate information across all sectors of the U.S. economy. Climate services not only enhance development opportunities in many regions, but also reduce vulnerability to climate change around the world. The NOAA contribution lies within the NOAA Climate Goal mission, which is focusing its efforts on four key climate priority areas: water, extremes, coastal inundation, and marine ecosystems. In order to make progress in these areas, NOAA is exploiting its fundamental capabilities, including foundational research to advance understanding of the Earth system, observations to preserve and build the climate data record and monitor changes in climate conditions, climate models to predict and project future climate across space and time scales, and the development and delivery of decision support services focused on risk management. NOAA's National Weather Services (NWS) is moving toward provision of Decision Support Services (DSS) as a part of the Roadmap on the way to achieving a Weather Ready National (WRN) strategy. Both short-term and long-term weather, water, and climate information are critical for DSS and emergency services and have been integrated into NWS in the form of pilot projects run by National and Regional Operations Centers (NOC and ROCs respectively) as well as several local offices. Local offices with pilot projects have been focusing their efforts on provision of timely and actionable guidance for specific tasks such as DSS in support of Coastal Environments and Integrated Environmental Studies. Climate information in DSS extends the concept of climate services to provision of information that will help guide long-term preparedness for severe weather events and extreme conditions as well as climate variability and change GFCS recently summarized examples of existing initiatives to advance provision of climate services in the 2012 publication Climate ExChange. In this publication, NWS introduced the new Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT), a tool that is used to conduct local climate studies that are needed to create efficient and reliable guidance for DSS. LCAT allows for analyzing trends in local climate variables and identifying local impacts of climate variability (e.g., ENSO) on weather and water conditions. In addition to LCAT, NWS, working in partnership with the North East Regional Climate center, released xmACIS version 2, a climate data mining tool, for NWS field operations. During this talk we will demonstrate LCAT and xmACIS as well as outline several examples of their application to DSS and its potential use for achieving GFCS goals. The examples include LCAT-based temperature analysis for energy decisions, guidance on weather and water events leading to increased algal blooms and red tide months in advance, local climate sensitivities to droughts, probabilities of hot/cold conditions and their potential impacts on agriculture and fish kills or fish stress.

Local Cloudiness Development Forecast Based on Simulation of Solid Phase Formation Processes in the Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barodka, Siarhei; Kliutko, Yauhenia; Krasouski, Alexander; Papko, Iryna; Svetashev, Alexander; Turishev, Leonid

2013-04-01

Nowadays numerical simulation of thundercloud formation processes is of great interest as an actual problem from the practical point of view. Thunderclouds significantly affect airplane flights, and mesoscale weather forecast has much to contribute to facilitate the aviation forecast procedures. An accurate forecast can certainly help to avoid aviation accidents due to weather conditions. The present study focuses on modelling of the convective clouds development and thunder clouds detection on the basis of mesoscale atmospheric processes simulation, aiming at significantly improving the aeronautical forecast. In the analysis, the primary weather radar information has been used to be further adapted for mesoscale forecast systems. Two types of domains have been selected for modelling: an internal one (with radius of 8 km), and an external one (with radius of 300 km). The internal domain has been directly applied to study the local clouds development, and the external domain data has been treated as initial and final conditions for cloud cover formation. The domain height has been chosen according to the civil aviation forecast data (i.e. not exceeding 14 km). Simulations of weather conditions and local clouds development have been made within selected domains with the WRF modelling system. In several cases, thunderclouds are detected within the convective clouds. To specify the given category of clouds, we employ a simulation technique of solid phase formation processes in the atmosphere. Based on modelling results, we construct vertical profiles indicating the amount of solid phase in the atmosphere. Furthermore, we obtain profiles demonstrating the amount of ice particles and large particles (hailstones). While simulating the processes of solid phase formation, we investigate vertical and horizontal air flows. Consequently, we attempt to separate the total amount of solid phase into categories of small ice particles, large ice particles and hailstones. Also, we strive to reveal and differentiate the basic atmospheric parameters of sublimation and coagulation processes, aiming to predict ice particles precipitation. To analyze modelling results we apply the VAPOR three-dimensional visualization package. For the chosen domains, a diurnal synoptic situation has been simulated, including rain, sleet, ice pellets, and hail. As a result, we have obtained a large scope of data describing various atmospheric parameters: cloud cover, major wind components, basic levels of isobaric surfaces, and precipitation rate. Based on this data, we show both distinction in precipitation formation due to various heights and its differentiation of the ice particles. The relation between particle rise in the atmosphere and its size is analyzed: at 8-10 km altitude large ice particles, resulted from coagulation, dominate, while at 6-7 km altitude one can find snow and small ice particles formed by condensation growth. Also, mechanical trajectories of solid precipitation particles for various ice formation processes have been calculated.

Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013

PubMed Central

Jolly, W. Matt; Cochrane, Mark A.; Freeborn, Patrick H.; Holden, Zachary A.; Brown, Timothy J.; Williamson, Grant J.; Bowman, David M. J. S.

2015-01-01

Climate strongly influences global wildfire activity, and recent wildfire surges may signal fire weather-induced pyrogeographic shifts. Here we use three daily global climate data sets and three fire danger indices to develop a simple annual metric of fire weather season length, and map spatio-temporal trends from 1979 to 2013. We show that fire weather seasons have lengthened across 29.6 million km2 (25.3%) of the Earth's vegetated surface, resulting in an 18.7% increase in global mean fire weather season length. We also show a doubling (108.1% increase) of global burnable area affected by long fire weather seasons (>1.0 σ above the historical mean) and an increased global frequency of long fire weather seasons across 62.4 million km2 (53.4%) during the second half of the study period. If these fire weather changes are coupled with ignition sources and available fuel, they could markedly impact global ecosystems, societies, economies and climate. PMID:26172867

Measuring ignitability for in situ burning of oil spills weathered under Arctic conditions: from laboratory studies to large-scale field experiments.

PubMed

Fritt-Rasmussen, Janne; Brandvik, Per Johan

2011-08-01

This paper compares the ignitability of Troll B crude oil weathered under simulated Arctic conditions (0%, 50% and 90% ice cover). The experiments were performed in different scales at SINTEF's laboratories in Trondheim, field research station on Svalbard and in broken ice (70-90% ice cover) in the Barents Sea. Samples from the weathering experiments were tested for ignitability using the same laboratory burning cell. The measured ignitability from the experiments in these different scales showed a good agreement for samples with similar weathering. The ice conditions clearly affected the weathering process, and 70% ice or more reduces the weathering and allows a longer time window for in situ burning. The results from the Barents Sea revealed that weathering and ignitability can vary within an oil slick. This field use of the burning cell demonstrated that it can be used as an operational tool to monitor the ignitability of oil spills. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SALINITY AND SODICITY INTERACTIONS OF WEATHERED MINESOILS IN NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTH EASTERN ARIZONA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brent Musslewhite; Song Jin

2006-05-01

Weathering characteristics of minesoils and rooting patterns of key shrub and grass species were evaluated at sites reclaimed for 6 to 14 years from three surface coal mine operations in northwestern New Mexico and northeastern Arizona. Non-weathered minesoils were grouped into 11 classifications based on electrical conductivity (EC) and sodium adsorption ratio (SAR). Comparisons of saturated paste extracts, from non-weathered and weathered minesoils show significant (p < 0.05) reductions in SAR levels and increased EC. Weathering increased the apparent stability of saline and sodic minesoils thereby reducing concerns of aggregate slaking and clay particle dispersion. Root density of four-wing saltbushmore » (Atriplex canascens), alkali sacaton (Sporobolus airoides), and Russian wildrye (Psathyrostachys junceus) were nominally affected by increasing EC and SAR levels in minesoil. Results suggest that saline and sodic minesoils can be successfully reclaimed when covered with topsoil and seeded with salt tolerant plant species.« less

Predicting the magnetospheric plasma of weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dawson, John M.

1986-01-01

The prediction of the plasma environment in time, the plasma weather, is discussed. It is important to be able to predict when large magnetic storms will produce auroras, which will affect the space station operating in low orbit, and what precautions to take both for personnel and sensitive control (computer) equipment onboard. It is also important to start to establish a set of plasma weather records and a record of the ability to predict this weather. A successful forecasting system requires a set of satellite weather stations to provide data from which predictions can be made and a set of plasma weather codes capable of accurately forecasting the status of the Earth's magnetosphere. A numerical magnetohydrodynamic fluid model which is used to model the flow in the magnetosphere, the currents flowing into and out of the auroral regions, the magnetopause, the bow shock location and the magnetotail of the Earth is discussed.

Building resilience to weather-related hazards through better preparedness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, Julia; Golding, Brian; Johnston, David; Ruti, Paolo

2017-04-01

Recent developments in weather forecasting have transformed our ability to predict weather-related hazards, while mobile communication is radically changing the way that people receive information. At the same time, vulnerability to weather-related hazards is growing through urban expansion, population growth and climate change. This talk will address issues facing the science community in responding to the Sendai Framework objective to "substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems" in the context of weather-related hazards. It will also provide an overview of activities and approaches developed in the World Meteorological Organisation's High Impact Weather (HIWeather) project. HIWeather has identified and is promoting research in key multi-disciplinary gaps in our knowledge, including in basic meteorology, risk prediction, communication and decision making, that affect our ability to provide effective warnings. The results will be pulled together in demonstration projects that will both showcase leading edge capability and build developing country capacity.

The contribution of changes in P release and CO2 consumption by chemical weathering to the historical trend in land carbon uptake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodale, C. L.; Fredriksen, G.; McCalley, C. K.; Sparks, J. P.; Thomas, S. A.

2011-12-01

The atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has increased to a level unprecedented in the last 2 million years, and the concentration is projected to increase further with a rate unseen in geological past. The increase in CO2 cause a rise in surface temperatures and changes in the hydrological cycle through the redistribution of rainfall patterns. All of these changes will impact the weathering of rocks, which in turn affect atmospheric CO2 concentrations via two different pathways. On the one hand, CO2 is consumed by the dissolution reaction of the exposed minerals. And on the other hand, biological CO2 fixation is affected due to changes in phosphorus release from minerals, as biological activity is constrained by phosphorus availability at large scales. The traditional view is that both effects are negligible on a centennial time scale, but recent work on catchment scale challenge this view in favor of a potential high sensitivity of weathering to ongoing climate and land use changes. To globally quantify the contribution of CO2 fixation associated with weathering on the historical trend in terrestrial CO2 uptake, we applied a model of chemical weathering and phosphorus release under climate reconstructions from four Earth System Models. The simulations indicate that changes in weathering could have contributed considerably to the trend in terrestrial CO2 uptake since the pre-industrial revolution, with warming being the main driver of change. The increase in biological CO2 fixation is of comparable magnitude as the increase in CO2 consumption by chemical weathering. Our simulations support the previous findings on catchment scale that weathering can change significantly on a centennial time scale. This finding has implications for 21st century climate projections, which ignore changes in weathering, as well as for long-term airborne fraction of CO2 emissions, whose calculation usually neglects changes in phosphorus availability.

The contribution of changes in P release and CO2 consumption by chemical weathering to the historical trend in land carbon uptake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goll, D. S.; Moosdorf, N.; Brovkin, V.; Hartmann, J.

2013-12-01

The atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has increased to a level unprecedented in the last 2 million years, and the concentration is projected to increase further with a rate unseen in geological past. The increase in CO2 cause a rise in surface temperatures and changes in the hydrological cycle through the redistribution of rainfall patterns. All of these changes will impact the weathering of rocks, which in turn affect atmospheric CO2 concentrations via two different pathways. On the one hand, CO2 is consumed by the dissolution reaction of the exposed minerals. And on the other hand, biological CO2 fixation is affected due to changes in phosphorus release from minerals, as biological activity is constrained by phosphorus availability at large scales. The traditional view is that both effects are negligible on a centennial time scale, but recent work on catchment scale challenge this view in favor of a potential high sensitivity of weathering to ongoing climate and land use changes. To globally quantify the contribution of CO2 fixation associated with weathering on the historical trend in terrestrial CO2 uptake, we applied a model of chemical weathering and phosphorus release under climate reconstructions from four Earth System Models. The simulations indicate that changes in weathering could have contributed considerably to the trend in terrestrial CO2 uptake since the pre-industrial revolution, with warming being the main driver of change. The increase in biological CO2 fixation is of comparable magnitude as the increase in CO2 consumption by chemical weathering. Our simulations support the previous findings on catchment scale that weathering can change significantly on a centennial time scale. This finding has implications for 21st century climate projections, which ignore changes in weathering, as well as for long-term airborne fraction of CO2 emissions, whose calculation usually neglects changes in phosphorus availability.

Climate-soil Interactions: Global Change, Local Properties, and Ecological Sites

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global climate change is predicted to alter historic patterns of precipitation and temperature in rangelands globally. Vegetation community response to altered weather patterns will be mediated at the site level by local-scale properties that govern ecological potential, including geology, topograph...

KSC-06pd1279

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-06-28

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Under the watchful eyes of the media, an upper-level weather balloon begins its lift into the sky. The release of the balloon at the Cape Canaveral weather station in Florida was part of a media tour prior to the launch of Space Shuttle Discovery on mission STS-121 July 1. The radar-tracked balloon detects wind shears that can affect a shuttle launch. At the facility, which is operated by the U.S. Air Force 45th Weather Squadron, media saw the tools used by the weather team to create the forecast for launch day. They received a briefing on how the launch weather forecast is developed by Shuttle Weather Officer Kathy Winters and met the forecasters for the space shuttle and the expendable launch vehicles. Also participating were members of the Applied Meteorology Unit who provide special expertise to the forecasters by analyzing and interpreting unusual or inconsistent weather data. The media were able to see the release of the Rawinsonde weather balloon carrying instruments aloft to be used as part of developing the forecast. Photo credit: NASA/George Shelton

Effect of temperature shock and inventory surprises on natural gas and heating oil futures returns.

PubMed

Hu, John Wei-Shan; Hu, Yi-Chung; Lin, Chien-Yu

2014-01-01

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of temperature shock on both near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns by extending the weather and storage models of the previous study. Several notable findings from the empirical studies are presented. First, the expected temperature shock significantly and positively affects both the near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns. Next, significant temperature shock has effect on both the conditional mean and volatility of natural gas and heating oil prices. The results indicate that expected inventory surprises significantly and negatively affects the far-month natural gas futures returns. Moreover, volatility of natural gas futures returns is higher on Thursdays and that of near-month heating oil futures returns is higher on Wednesdays than other days. Finally, it is found that storage announcement for natural gas significantly affects near-month and far-month natural gas futures returns. Furthermore, both natural gas and heating oil futures returns are affected more by the weighted average temperature reported by multiple weather reporting stations than that reported by a single weather reporting station.

Effect of Temperature Shock and Inventory Surprises on Natural Gas and Heating Oil Futures Returns

PubMed Central

Hu, John Wei-Shan; Lin, Chien-Yu

2014-01-01

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of temperature shock on both near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns by extending the weather and storage models of the previous study. Several notable findings from the empirical studies are presented. First, the expected temperature shock significantly and positively affects both the near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns. Next, significant temperature shock has effect on both the conditional mean and volatility of natural gas and heating oil prices. The results indicate that expected inventory surprises significantly and negatively affects the far-month natural gas futures returns. Moreover, volatility of natural gas futures returns is higher on Thursdays and that of near-month heating oil futures returns is higher on Wednesdays than other days. Finally, it is found that storage announcement for natural gas significantly affects near-month and far-month natural gas futures returns. Furthermore, both natural gas and heating oil futures returns are affected more by the weighted average temperature reported by multiple weather reporting stations than that reported by a single weather reporting station. PMID:25133233

NASA/MSFC FY-82 atmospheric processes research review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, R. E. (Compiler)

1982-01-01

The NASA/MSFC FY-82 Atmospheric Processes Research Program was reviewed. The review covered research tasks in the areas of upper atmosphere, global weather, and severe storms and local weather. Also included was research on aviation safety environmental hazards. The research project summaries, in narrative outline form, supplied by the individual investigators together with the agenda and other information about the review are presented.

Environmental Assessment of Installation Development at McConnell Air Force Base, Kansas

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-05-01

characteristics of the noise source, distance between source and receptor, receptor sensitivity, weather , and time of day. Sound is measured with...bulk fuel storage and transfer, fuel dispensing, service stations , solvent degreasing, surface coating, and chemical usage/fugitive emissions. The...and weathered Permian bedrock. The deeper aquifer is within calcareous shales of the Wellington Formation. Groundwater flow follows the local

[The ways in which variations in space and atmospheric factors act upon the biosphere and humans].

PubMed

Chernogor, L F

2010-01-01

The system analysis is validated to be an efficient means for studying the channels through which variations in space and tropospheric weather affect the biosphere (humans). The basics of the system analysis paradigm are presented. The causes of variations in space and tropospheric weather are determined, and the interrelations between them are demonstrated. The ways in which these variations affect the biosphere (humans) are discussed. Aperiodic and quasi-periodic disturbances in the physical fields that influence the biosphere (humans) are intercompared.

Mercury's Weather-Beaten Surface: Understanding Mercury in the Context of Lunar and Asteroidal Space Weathering Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Domingue, Deborah L.; Chapman, Clark. R.; Killen, Rosemary M.; Zurbuchen, Thomas H.; Gilbert, Jason A.; Sarantos, Menelaos; Benna, Mehdi; Slavin, James A.; Schriver, David; Travnicek, Pavel M.;

Differences in the importance of weather and weather-based decisions among campers in Ontario parks (Canada)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewer, Micah J.; Scott, Daniel J.; Gough, William A.

2017-10-01

Parks and protected areas represent an important resource for tourism in Canada, in which camping is a common recreational activity. The important relationship between weather and climate with recreation and tourism has been widely acknowledged within the academic literature. Howbeit, the need for activity-specific assessments has been identified as an on-going need for future research in the field of tourism climatology. Furthermore, very little is known about the interrelationships between personal characteristics and socio-demographics with weather preferences and behavioural thresholds. This study uses a stated climate preferences approach (survey responses) to explore differences in the importance of weather and related weather-based decisions among summer campers in Ontario parks. Statistically significant differences were found among campers for each of the four dependent variables tested in this study. Physically active campers placed greater importance on weather but were still more tolerant of adverse weather conditions. Older campers placed greater importance on weather. Campers travelling shorter distances placed greater importance on weather and were more likely to leave the park early due to adverse weather. Campers staying for longer periods of time were less likely to leave early due to weather and were willing to endure longer durations of adverse weather conditions. Beginner campers placed greater importance on weather, were more likely to leave early due to weather and recorded lower temporal weather thresholds. The results of this study contribute to the study of tourism climatology by furthering understanding of how personal characteristics such as gender, age, activity selection, trip duration, distance travelled, travel experience and life cycles affect weather preferences and decisions, focusing this time on recreational camping in a park tourism context.

Differences in the importance of weather and weather-based decisions among campers in Ontario parks (Canada).

PubMed

Hewer, Micah J; Scott, Daniel J; Gough, William A

2017-10-01

Parks and protected areas represent an important resource for tourism in Canada, in which camping is a common recreational activity. The important relationship between weather and climate with recreation and tourism has been widely acknowledged within the academic literature. Howbeit, the need for activity-specific assessments has been identified as an on-going need for future research in the field of tourism climatology. Furthermore, very little is known about the interrelationships between personal characteristics and socio-demographics with weather preferences and behavioural thresholds. This study uses a stated climate preferences approach (survey responses) to explore differences in the importance of weather and related weather-based decisions among summer campers in Ontario parks. Statistically significant differences were found among campers for each of the four dependent variables tested in this study. Physically active campers placed greater importance on weather but were still more tolerant of adverse weather conditions. Older campers placed greater importance on weather. Campers travelling shorter distances placed greater importance on weather and were more likely to leave the park early due to adverse weather. Campers staying for longer periods of time were less likely to leave early due to weather and were willing to endure longer durations of adverse weather conditions. Beginner campers placed greater importance on weather, were more likely to leave early due to weather and recorded lower temporal weather thresholds. The results of this study contribute to the study of tourism climatology by furthering understanding of how personal characteristics such as gender, age, activity selection, trip duration, distance travelled, travel experience and life cycles affect weather preferences and decisions, focusing this time on recreational camping in a park tourism context.

Long-term association between the intensity of cosmic rays and mortality rates in the city of Sao Paulo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieira, C. L. Z.; Janot-Pacheco, E.; Lage, C.; Pacini, A.; Koutrakis, P.; Cury, P. R.; Shaodan, H.; Pereira, L. A.; Saldiva, P. H. N.

2018-02-01

Human beings are constantly exposed to many kinds of environmental agents which affect their health and lifespan. Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are the main source of ionizing radiation in the lower troposphere, in which secondary products can penetrate the ground and underground layers. GCRs affect the physical-chemical properties of the terrestrial atmosphere, as well as the biosphere. GCRs are modulated by solar activity and latitudinal geomagnetic field distribution. In our ecological/populational retrospective study, we analyzed the correlation between the annual flux of local secondary GCR-induced ionization (CRII) and mortality rates in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, between 1951-2012. The multivariate linear regression analyses adjusted by demographic and weather parameters showed that CRII are significantly correlated with total mortality, infectious disease mortality, maternal mortality, and perinatal mortality rates (p < 0.001). The underlying mechanisms are still unclear. Further cross-sectional and experimental cohort studies are necessary to understand the biophysical mechanisms of the association found here.

Martian Dust Storm on May 18, 2008

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2008-01-01

[figure removed for brevity, see original site] Click on image for animation

This false-color polar map was generated from images obtained by the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter's Mars Color Imager (MARCI) on May 18, 2008. It shows a large local dust storm that researchers were monitoring to see if it would affect weather conditions at NASA's Phoenix spacecraft's landing site on landing day, May 25, 2008. The landing site is labeled and marked with the yellow dot.

The dust storm, indicated with yellow arrows in the close-up view, is the sinuous, light-colored feature to the left of the white northern polar cap at the center of the map.

This dust storm was too early and too far away to affect the lander.

The Phoenix Mission is led by the University of Arizona, Tucson, on behalf of NASA. Project management of the mission is by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. Spacecraft development is by Lockheed Martin Space Systems, Denver.

An Electronic Weather Vane for Field Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burman, J.; Talbert, R.; Carlton, K.

2014-01-01

This paper details the construction of a weather vane for the measurement of wind direction in field situations. The purpose of its construction was to analyse how wind direction affected the attractiveness of an insect pheromone in a dynamic outdoor environment, where wind could be a significant contributor to odour movement. The apparatus…

75 FR 11505 - Revision of Land and Resource Management Plan for the National Forests in Mississippi

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-11

... increasing weather disturbances and incorporating strategies for responding to anticipated climate changes in... and a changing climate, reducing impacts of insects and diseases, controlling non-native invasive... weather events is the climate change factor most likely to affect the NFsMS in the next 10-15 years...

Climate change increases deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat in north-western Europe.

PubMed

van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Olesen, J E; Madsen, M S; Goedhart, P W

2012-01-01

Climate change will affect the development of cereal crops and the occurrence of mycotoxins in these crops, but so far little research has been done on quantifying the expected effects. The aim of this study was to assess climate change impacts on the occurrence of deoxynivalenol in wheat grown in north-western Europe by 2040, considering the combined effects of shifts in wheat phenology and climate. The study used climate model data for the future period of 2031-2050 relative to the baseline period of 1975-1994. A weather generator was used for generating synthetic series of daily weather data for both the baseline and the future periods. Available models for wheat phenology and prediction of deoxynivalenol concentrations in north-western Europe were used. Both models were run for winter wheat and spring wheat, separately. The results showed that both flowering and full maturation of wheat will be earlier in the season because of climate change effects, about 1 to 2 weeks. Deoxynivalenol contamination was found to increase in most of the study region, with an increase of the original concentrations by up to 3 times. The study results may inform governmental and industrial risk managers to underpin decision-making and planning processes in north-western Europe. On the local level, deoxynivalenol contamination should be closely monitored to pick out wheat batches with excess levels at the right time. Using predictive models on a more local scale could be helpful to assist other monitoring measures to safeguard food safety in the wheat supply chain.

Summarising climate and air quality (ozone) data on self-organising maps: a Sydney case study.

PubMed

Jiang, Ningbo; Betts, Alan; Riley, Matt

2016-02-01

This paper explores the classification and visualisation utility of the self-organising map (SOM) method in the context of New South Wales (NSW), Australia, using gridded NCEP/NCAR geopotential height reanalysis for east Australia, together with multi-site meteorological and air quality data for Sydney from the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage Air Quality Monitoring Network. A twice-daily synoptic classification has been derived for east Australia for the period of 1958-2012. The classification has not only reproduced the typical synoptic patterns previously identified in the literature but also provided an opportunity to visualise the subtle, non-linear change in the eastward-migrating synoptic systems influencing NSW (including Sydney). The summarisation of long-term, multi-site air quality/meteorological data from the Sydney basin on the SOM plane has identified a set of typical air pollution/meteorological spatial patterns in the region. Importantly, the examination of these patterns in relation to synoptic weather types has provided important visual insights into how local and synoptic meteorological conditions interact with each other and affect the variability of air quality in tandem. The study illustrates that while synoptic circulation types are influential, the within-type variability in mesoscale flows plays a critical role in determining local ozone levels in Sydney. These results indicate that the SOM can be a useful tool for assessing the impact of weather and climatic conditions on air quality in the regional airshed. This study further promotes the use of the SOM method in environmental research.

Extreme Weather Risk Assessment: The Case of Jiquilisco, El Salvador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melendez, Karla; Ceppi, Claudia; Molero, Juanjo; Rios Insua, David

2014-05-01

All major climate models predict increases in both global and regional mean temperatures throughout this century, under different scenarios concerning future trends in population growth or economic and technological development. This consistency of results across models has strengthened the evidence about global warming. Despite the convincing facts and findings of climate researchers, there is still a great deal of skepticism around climate change. There is somewhat less consensus about some of the consequences of climate change, for example in reference to extreme weather changes, in particular as regards more local scales. However, such changes seem to have already considerable impact in many regions across the world in terms of lives, economic losses, and required changes in lifestyles. This may demand appropriate policy responses both at national and local levels. Our work provides a framework for extreme weather multithreat risk management, based on probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). This may be useful in comparing the effectiveness of different actions to manage risks and inform judgment concerning the appropriate resource allocation to mitigate the risks. The methodology has been applied to the case study of the "El Marillo II" community, located in the municipality of Jiquilisco in El Salvador. There, the main problem related with extreme weather conditions are the frequent floods caused by rainfall, hurricanes , and water increases in the Lempa river nearby located. However, droughts are also very relevant. Based on several sources like SNET, newspapers, field visits to the region and interviews, we have built a detailed database that comprises extreme weather daily data from January 1971 until December 2011. Forecasting models for floods and droughts were built suggesting the need to properly manage the risks. We subsequently obtained the optimal portfolio of countermeasures, given the budget constraints. KEYWORDS: CLIMATE CHANGE, EXTREME WEATHER, RISK ANALYSIS, DECISION ANALYSIS, EL SALVADOR.

Using Mesoscale Weather Model Output as Boundary Conditions for Atmospheric Large-Eddy Simulations and Wind-Plant Aerodynamic Simulations (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Churchfield, M. J.; Michalakes, J.; Vanderwende, B.

Wind plant aerodynamics are directly affected by the microscale weather, which is directly influenced by the mesoscale weather. Microscale weather refers to processes that occur within the atmospheric boundary layer with the largest scales being a few hundred meters to a few kilometers depending on the atmospheric stability of the boundary layer. Mesoscale weather refers to large weather patterns, such as weather fronts, with the largest scales being hundreds of kilometers wide. Sometimes microscale simulations that capture mesoscale-driven variations (changes in wind speed and direction over time or across the spatial extent of a wind plant) are important in windmore » plant analysis. In this paper, we present our preliminary work in coupling a mesoscale weather model with a microscale atmospheric large-eddy simulation model. The coupling is one-way beginning with the weather model and ending with a computational fluid dynamics solver using the weather model in coarse large-eddy simulation mode as an intermediary. We simulate one hour of daytime moderately convective microscale development driven by the mesoscale data, which are applied as initial and boundary conditions to the microscale domain, at a site in Iowa. We analyze the time and distance necessary for the smallest resolvable microscales to develop.« less

Developing and applying uncertain global climate change projections for regional water management planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, David G.; Yates, David; Tebaldi, Claudia

2008-12-01

Climate change may impact water resources management conditions in difficult-to-predict ways. A key challenge for water managers is how to incorporate highly uncertain information about potential climate change from global models into local- and regional-scale water management models and tools to support local planning. This paper presents a new method for developing large ensembles of local daily weather that reflect a wide range of plausible future climate change scenarios while preserving many statistical properties of local historical weather patterns. This method is demonstrated by evaluating the possible impact of climate change on the Inland Empire Utilities Agency service area in southern California. The analysis shows that climate change could impact the region, increasing outdoor water demand by up to 10% by 2040, decreasing local water supply by up to 40% by 2040, and decreasing sustainable groundwater yields by up to 15% by 2040. The range of plausible climate projections suggests the need for the region to augment its long-range water management plans to reduce its vulnerability to climate change.

Quantification of Local Warming Trend: A Remote Sensing-Based Approach

PubMed Central

Rahaman, Khan Rubayet; Hassan, Quazi K.

2017-01-01

Understanding the warming trends at local level is critical; and, the development of relevant adaptation and mitigation policies at those levels are quite challenging. Here, our overall goal was to generate local warming trend map at 1 km spatial resolution by using: (i) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based 8-day composite surface temperature data; (ii) weather station-based yearly average air temperature data; and (iii) air temperature normal (i.e., 30 year average) data over the Canadian province of Alberta during the period 1961–2010. Thus, we analysed the station-based air temperature data in generating relationships between air temperature normal and yearly average air temperature in order to facilitate the selection of year-specific MODIS-based surface temperature data. These MODIS data in conjunction with weather station-based air temperature normal data were then used to model local warming trends. We observed that almost 88% areas of the province experienced warming trends (i.e., up to 1.5°C). The study concluded that remote sensing technology could be useful for delineating generic trends associated with local warming. PMID:28072857

Mercury's Weather-Beaten Surface: Understanding Mercury in the Context of Lunar and Asteroid Space Weathering Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dominque, Deborah L.; Chapman, Clark R.; Killen, Rosemary M.; Zurbuchen, Thomas H.; Gilbert, Jason A.; Sarantos, Menelaos; Benna, Mehdi; Slavin, James A.; Orlando, Thomas M.; Schriver, David;

Intensifying postfire weather and biological invasion drive species loss in a Mediterranean-type biodiversity hotspot.

PubMed

Slingsby, Jasper A; Merow, Cory; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew; Allsopp, Nicky; Hall, Stuart; Kilroy Mollmann, Hayley; Turner, Ross; Wilson, Adam M; Silander, John A

2017-05-02

Prolonged periods of extreme heat or drought in the first year after fire affect the resilience and diversity of fire-dependent ecosystems by inhibiting seed germination or increasing mortality of seedlings and resprouting individuals. This interaction between weather and fire is of growing concern as climate changes, particularly in systems subject to stand-replacing crown fires, such as most Mediterranean-type ecosystems. We examined the longest running set of permanent vegetation plots in the Fynbos of South Africa (44 y), finding a significant decline in the diversity of plots driven by increasingly severe postfire summer weather events (number of consecutive days with high temperatures and no rain) and legacy effects of historical woody alien plant densities 30 y after clearing. Species that resprout after fire and/or have graminoid or herb growth forms were particularly affected by postfire weather, whereas all species were sensitive to invasive plants. Observed differences in the response of functional types to extreme postfire weather could drive major shifts in ecosystem structure and function such as altered fire behavior, hydrology, and carbon storage. An estimated 0.5 °C increase in maximum temperature tolerance of the species sets unique to each survey further suggests selection for species adapted to hotter conditions. Taken together, our results show climate change impacts on biodiversity in the hyperdiverse Cape Floristic Region and demonstrate an important interaction between extreme weather and disturbance by fire that may make flammable ecosystems particularly sensitive to climate change.

Meeting summary - Coastal meteorology and oceanography: Report of the third prospectus development team of the U.S. Weather Research Program to NOAA and NSF

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rotunno, R.; Pietrafesa, L.J.; Allen, J.S.; Colman, B.R.; Dorman, C.M.; Kreitzberg, C.W.; Lord, S.J.; McPhee, M.G.; Mellor, G.L.; Mooers, C.N.K.; Niiler, P.P.; Pielke, R.A.; Powell, M.D.; Rogers, D.P.; Smith, J.D.; Xie, Lingtian; Carbone, R.

1996-01-01

U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) prospectus development teams (PDTs) are small groups of scientists that are convened by the USWRP lead scientist on a one-time basis to discuss critical issues and to provide advice related to future directions of the program. PDTs are a principal source of information for the Science Advisory Committee, which is a standing committee charged with the duty of making recommendations to the Program Office based upon overall program objectives. PDT-1 focused on theoretical issues, and PDT-2 on observational issues; PDT-3 is the first of several to focus on more specialized topics. PDT-3 was convened to identify forecasting problems related to U.S. coastal weather and oceanic conditions, and to suggest likely solution strategies. There were several overriding themes that emerged from the discussion. First, the lack of data in and over critical regions of the ocean, particularly in the atmospheric boundary layer, and the upper-ocean mixed layer were identified as major impediments to coastal weather prediction. Strategies for data collection and dissemination, as well as new instrument implementation, were discussed. Second, fundamental knowledge of air-sea fluxes and boundary layer structure in situations where there is significant mesoscale variability in the atmosphere and ocean is needed. Companion field studies and numerical prediction experiments were discussed. Third, research prognostic models suggest that future operational forecast models pertaining to coastal weather will be high resolution and site specific, and will properly treat effects of local coastal geography, orography, and ocean state. The view was expressed that the exploration of coupled air-sea models of the coastal zone would be a particularly fruitful area of research. PDT-3 felt that forecasts of land-impacting tropical cyclones, Great Lakes-affected weather, and coastal cyclogenesis, in particular, would benefit from such coordinated modeling and field efforts. Fourth, forecasting for Arctic coastal zones is limited by our understanding of how sea ice forms. The importance of understanding air-sea fluxes and boundary layers in the presence of ice formation was discussed. Finally, coastal flash flood forecasting via hydrologic models is limited by the present accuracy of measured and predicted precipitation and storm surge events. Strategies for better ways to improve the latter were discussed.

Using 311 Data as a Proxy For Weather Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, X.

2017-12-01

According to the World Bank, two-thirds of the global population will lives in urban areas by 2050. The impacts of major weather events have sometimes led to huge economic losses in urban areas and impacts are projected to increase as cities grow. Using remote sensing to study weather in urban areas is challenge because urban areas are small relative to the resolutions of many satellite products. In addition, most human activity is indoors and underground, which neither satellites nor other remote sensing instruments can measure. As a substitute for these instruments, there are datasets that can potentially provide information about the local impacts of the weather. Many cities use the U.S. Federal Communications Commision code for non-emergencies (311) as a hotline for residents to report municipal issues. For example, New York City's 311 dataset contains over a 100 million reports, many of which are potentially related to the impacts of weather events. To isolate the impacts, we aggregate over space and time to reduce the noise in the data and normalize the data to account for uneven distributions of people and complaints. We then compare the potentially weather related 311 reports with global monthly summaries of weather observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) to analyze the impact of weather events as reported by the residents of NYC.

Evaluation and economic value of winter weather forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snyder, Derrick W.

State and local highway agencies spend millions of dollars each year to deploy winter operation teams to plow snow and de-ice roadways. Accurate and timely weather forecast information is critical for effective decision making. Students from Purdue University partnered with the Indiana Department of Transportation to create an experimental winter weather forecast service for the 2012-2013 winter season in Indiana to assist in achieving these goals. One forecast product, an hourly timeline of winter weather hazards produced daily, was evaluated for quality and economic value. Verification of the forecasts was performed with data from the Rapid Refresh numerical weather model. Two objective verification criteria were developed to evaluate the performance of the timeline forecasts. Using both criteria, the timeline forecasts had issues with reliability and discrimination, systematically over-forecasting the amount of winter weather that was observed while also missing significant winter weather events. Despite these quality issues, the forecasts still showed significant, but varied, economic value compared to climatology. Economic value of the forecasts was estimated to be 29.5 million or 4.1 million, depending on the verification criteria used. Limitations of this valuation system are discussed and a framework is developed for more thorough studies in the future.

Mexican Space Weather Service (SCiESMEX)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Esparza, J. A.; De la Luz, V.; Corona-Romero, P.; Mejia-Ambriz, J. C.; Gonzalez, L. X.; Sergeeva, M. A.; Romero-Hernandez, E.; Aguilar-Rodriguez, E.

2017-01-01

Legislative modifications of the General Civil Protection Law in Mexico in 2014 included specific references to space hazards and space weather phenomena. The legislation is consistent with United Nations promotion of international engagement and cooperation on space weather awareness, studies, and monitoring. These internal and external conditions motivated the creation of a space weather service in Mexico. The Mexican Space Weather Service (SCiESMEX in Spanish) (www.sciesmex.unam.mx) was initiated in October 2014 and is operated by the Institute of Geophysics at the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM). SCiESMEX became a Regional Warning Center of the International Space Environment Services (ISES) in June 2015. We present the characteristics of the service, some products, and the initial actions for developing a space weather strategy in Mexico. The service operates a computing infrastructure including a web application, data repository, and a high-performance computing server to run numerical models. SCiESMEX uses data of the ground-based instrumental network of the National Space Weather Laboratory (LANCE), covering solar radio burst emissions, solar wind and interplanetary disturbances (by interplanetary scintillation observations), geomagnetic measurements, and analysis of the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere (by employing data from local networks of GPS receiver stations).

Vehicular-networking- and road-weather-related research in Sodankylä

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukuvaara, Timo; Mäenpää, Kari; Ylitalo, Riika

2016-10-01

Vehicular-networking- and especially safety-related wireless vehicular services have been under intensive research for almost a decade now. Only in recent years has road weather information also been acknowledged to play an important role when aiming to reduce traffic accidents and fatalities via intelligent transport systems (ITSs). Part of the progress can be seen as a result of the Finnish Meteorological Institute's (FMI) long-term research work in Sodankylä within the topic, originally started in 2006. Within multiple research projects, the FMI Arctic Research Centre has been developing wireless vehicular networking and road weather services, in co-operation with the FMI meteorological services team in Helsinki. At the beginning the wireless communication was conducted with traditional Wi-Fi type local area networking, but during the development the system has evolved into a hybrid communication system of a combined vehicular ad hoc networking (VANET) system with special IEEE 802.11p protocol and supporting cellular networking based on a commercial 3G network, not forgetting support for Wi-Fi-based devices also. For piloting purposes and further research, we have established a special combined road weather station (RWS) and roadside unit (RSU), to interact with vehicles as a service hotspot. In the RWS-RSU we have chosen to build support to all major approaches, IEEE 802.11, traditional Wi-Fi and cellular 3G. We employ road weather systems of FMI, along with RWS and vehicle data gathered from vehicles, in the up-to-date localized weather data delivered in real time. IEEE 802.11p vehicular networking is supported with Wi-Fi and 3G communications. This paper briefly introduces the research work related to vehicular networking and road weather services conducted in Sodankylä, as well as the research project involved in this work. The current status of instrumentation, available services and capabilities are presented in order to formulate a clear general view of the research field.

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions During Puijo Cloud Experiments - The effects of weather and local sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komppula, Mika; Portin, Harri; Leskinen, Ari; Romakkaniemi, Sami; Brus, David; Neitola, Kimmo; Hyvärinen, Antti-Pekka; Kortelainen, Aki; Hao, Liqing; Miettinen, Pasi; Jaatinen, Antti; Ahmad, Irshad; Lihavainen, Heikki; Laaksonen, Ari; Lehtinen, Kari E. J.

2013-04-01

The Puijo measurement station has provided continuous data on aerosol-cloud interactions since 2006. The station is located on top of the Puijo observation tower (306 m a.s.l, 224 m above the surrounding lake level) in Kuopio, Finland. The top of the tower is covered by cloud about 15 % of the time, offering perfect conditions for studying aerosol-cloud interactions. With a twin-inlet setup (total and interstitial inlets) we are able to separate the activated particles from the interstitial (non-activated) particles. The continuous twin-inlet measurements include aerosol size distribution, scattering and absorption. In addition cloud droplet number and size distribution are measured continuously with weather parameters. During the campaigns the twin-inlet system was additionally equipped with aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) and Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP-2). This way we were able to define the differences in chemical composition of the activated and non-activated particles. Potential cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in different supersaturations were measured with two CCN counters (CCNC). The other CCNC was operated with a Differential Mobility Analyzer (DMA) to obtain size selected CCN spectra. Other additional measurements included Hygroscopic Tandem Differential Mobility Analyzer (HTDMA) for particle hygroscopicity. Additionally the valuable vertical wind profiles (updraft velocities) are available from Halo Doppler lidar during the 2011 campaign. Cloud properties (droplet number and effective radius) from MODIS instrument onboard Terra and Aqua satellites were retrieved and compared with the measured values. This work summarizes the two latest intensive campaigns, Puijo Cloud Experiments (PuCE) 2010 & 2011. We study especially the effect of the local sources on the cloud activation behaviour of the aerosol particles. The main local sources include a paper mill, a heating plant, traffic and residential areas. The sources can be categorized and identified by wind direction. Clear changes can be seen in the aerosol and cloud properties when being under the influence of a local pollutant source. Also differences in the chemical composition of aerosol activated to cloud droplet and those staying interstitial has been observed. For example, the light absorption by cloud interstitial particles is higher when the wind blows from the local pollutant sources compared to a cleaner sector. This may be due to the fact that the absorptive material, e.g. fresh soot, is generally hydrophobic and therefore inhibits activation. Another point of interest is the occasional freezing conditions during the campaign (temperature below zero), which also affects the activation behaviour. The full usage of this special data set will provide new information on the properties and differences of activating and non-activating aerosol particles, as well as on the variables affecting the activation.

The interdecadal worsening of weather conditions affecting aerosol pollution in the Beijing area in relation to climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhong, Junting; Wang, Jizhi; Wang, Yaqiang; Liu, Yanju

2018-04-01

The weather conditions affecting aerosol pollution in Beijing and its vicinity (BIV) in wintertime have worsened in recent years, particularly after 2010. The relation between interdecadal changes in weather conditions and climate warming is uncertain. Here, we analyze long-term variations of an integrated pollution-linked meteorological index (which is approximately and linearly related to aerosol pollution), the extent of changes in vertical temperature differences in the boundary layer (BL) in BIV, and northerly surface winds from Lake Baikal during wintertime to evaluate the potential contribution of climate warming to changes in meteorological conditions directly related to aerosol pollution in this area; this is accomplished using NCEP reanalysis data, surface observations, and long-term vertical balloon sounding observations since 1960. The weather conditions affecting BIV aerosol pollution are found to have worsened since the 1960s as a whole. This worsening is more significant after 2010, with PM2.5 reaching unprecedented high levels in many cities in China, particularly in BIV. The decadal worsening of meteorological conditions in BIV can partly be attributed to climate warming, which is defined by more warming in the higher layers of the boundary layer (BL) than the lower layers. This worsening can also be influenced by the accumulation of aerosol pollution, to a certain extent (particularly after 2010), because the increase in aerosol pollution from the ground leads to surface cooling by aerosol-radiation interactions, which facilitates temperature inversions, increases moisture accumulations, and results in the extra deterioration of meteorological conditions. If analyzed as a linear trend, weather conditions have worsened by ˜ 4 % each year from 2010 to 2017. Given such a deterioration rate, the worsening of weather conditions may lead to a corresponding amplitude increase in PM2.5 in BIV during wintertime in the next 5 years (i.e., 2018 to 2022). More stringent emission reduction measures will need to be conducted by the government.

Tracking butterfly movements with harmonic radar reveals an effect of population age on movement distance

PubMed Central

Ovaskainen, Otso; Smith, Alan D.; Osborne, Juliet L.; Reynolds, Don R.; Carreck, Norman L.; Martin, Andrew P.; Niitepõld, Kristjan; Hanski, Ilkka

2008-01-01

We used harmonic radar to track freely flying Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) females within an area of 30 ha. Butterflies originated from large and continuous populations in China and Estonia, and from newly established or old (> 5 years) small local populations in a highly fragmented landscape in Finland. Caterpillars were raised under common garden conditions and unmated females were tested soon after eclosion. The reconstructed flight paths for 66 individuals comprised a total distance of 51 km with high spatial resolution. Butterflies originating from large continuous populations and from old local populations in Finland exhibited similar movement behaviors, whereas butterflies originating from newly established local populations in the fragmented landscape in Finland moved significantly more than the others. There was no difference in the lengths of individual flight bouts, but the new-population females flew more frequently, resulting in longer daily movement tracks. The flight activity of all individuals was affected by environmental conditions, peaking at 19–23°C (depending on population type), in the early afternoon, and during calm weather. Butterflies from all population types showed a strong tendency to follow habitat edges between the open study area and the neighboring woodlands. PMID:19060191

An Implementing Strategy for Improving Wildland Fire Environmental Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCalla, M. R.; Andrus, D.; Barnett, K.

2007-12-01

Wildland fire is any planned or unplanned fire which occurs in wildland ecosystems. Wildland fires affect millions of acres annually in the U.S. An average of 5.4 million acres a year were burned in the U.S. between 1995 and 2004, approximately 142 percent of the average burned area between 1984 and 1994. In 2005 alone, Federal agencies spent nearly $1 billion on fire suppression and state and local agencies contributed millions more. Many Americans prefer to live and vacation in relatively remote surroundings, (i.e., woods and rangelands). These choices offer many benefits, but they also present significant risks. Most of North America is fire-prone and every day developed areas and home sites are extending further into natural wildlands, which increases the chances of catastrophic fire. In addition, an abundance of accumulated biomass in forests and rangelands and persistent drought conditions are contributing to larger, costlier wildland fires. To effectively prevent, manage, suppress, respond to, and recover from wildland fires, fire managers, and other communities which are impacted by wildland fires (e.g., the business community; healthcare providers; federal, state, and local policymakers; the media; the public, etc.) need timely, accurate, and detailed wildland fire weather and climate information to support their decision-making activities. But what are the wildland fire weather and climate data, products, and information, as well as information dissemination technologies, needed to reach out and promote wildland fire environmental literacy in these communities? The Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (OFCM) conducted a comprehensive review and assessment of weather and climate needs of providers and users in their wildland fire and fuels management activities. The assessment has nine focus areas, one of which is environmental literacy (e.g., education, training, outreach, partnering, and collaboration). The OFCM model for promoting wildland fire environmental literacy, the model's component parts, as well as an implementing strategy to execute the model will be presented. That is, the presentation will lay out the framework and methodology which the OFCM used to systematically define the wildland fire weather and climate education and outreach needs through interdepartmental collaboration within the OFCM coordinating infrastructure. A key element of the methodology is to improve the overall understanding and use of wildland fire forecast and warning climate and weather products and to exploit current and emerging technologies to improve the dissemination of customer-tailored forecast and warning information and products to stakeholders and users. Thus, the framework and methodology define the method used to determine the target public, private, and academic sector audiences. The methodology also identifies the means for determining the optimal channels, formats, and content for informing end users in time for effective action to be taken.

Space Weather Connections to Clouds and Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinsley, B. A.

2004-12-01

There is now a considerable amount of observational data and theoretical work pointing to a link between space weather and atmospheric electricity, and then between atmospheric electricity and cloud cover and precipitation, which ultimately affect climate and the biosphere. Studies so far have been largely confined to the Earth, but may be applicable to all planets with clouds in their atmospheres. The current density Jz, that is the return current flowing downward through clouds in the global circuit, is modulated by the galactic cosmic ray flux; by solar energetic particles; by the dawn-dusk polar cap potential difference; and by the precipitation of relativistic electrons from the radiation belts. The flow of Jz through clouds generates unipolar space charge, which is positive at cloud tops and negative at cloud base. This charge attaches to aerosol particles, and affects their interaction with other particles and droplets. Ultrafine aerosol particles are formed around ions and are preserved from scavenging on background aerosols, and preserved for growth by vapor deposition, by space charge at the bases and tops of layer clouds. There is electro-preservation of both ultrafines and of existing CCN that leads to increases in CCN concentration, and increases in cloud cover and reduction in both droplet size and precipitation by the `indirect aerosol effect'. For cold clouds and larger aerosol particles that act as ice forming nuclei, the rate of scavenging of the IFN by large supercooled droplets varies with space charge. Changes in space weather affect both ion production and Jz in planetary atmospheres. In addition, changes in cosmic ray flux affect conductivity within thunderclouds and may affect the output of the thundercloud generators in the global circuit. Thus all four processes, (a) ion-induced nucleation, (b) electro-preservation of leading to increases in CCN concentration and the indirect aerosol effect, (c) contact ice nucleation affecting the production of ices, (d) cosmic ray effects on the generators of the global circuit, are potential links between space weather and life on planets.

Locations Where Space Weather Energy Impacts the Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sojka, Jan J.

2017-11-01

In this review we consider aspects of space weather that can have a severe impact on the terrestrial atmosphere. We begin by identifying the pre-conditioning role of the Sun on the temperature and density of the upper atmosphere. This effect we define as "space climatology". Space weather effects are then defined as severe departures from this state of the atmospheric energy and density. Three specific forms of space weather are reviewed and we show that each generates severe space weather impacts. The three forms of space weather being considered are the solar photon flux (flares), particle precipitation (aurora), and electromagnetic Joule heating (magnetosphere-ionospheric (M-I) coupling). We provide an overview of the physical processes associated with each of these space weather forms. In each case a very specific altitude range exists over which the processes can most effectively impact the atmosphere. Our argument is that a severe change in the local atmosphere's state leads to atmospheric heating and other dynamic changes at locations beyond the input heat source region. All three space weather forms have their greatest atmospheric impact between 100 and 130 km. This altitude region comprises the transition between the atmosphere's mesosphere and thermosphere and is the ionosphere's E-region. This region is commonly referred to as the Space Atmosphere Interaction Region (SAIR). The SAIR also acts to insulate the lower atmosphere from the space weather impact of energy deposition. A similar space weather zone would be present in atmospheres of other planets and exoplanets.

Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office FY 2017 Budget At-A-Glance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2016-03-01

The Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs (WIP) Office is part of EERE’s balanced research, development, demonstration, and deployment approach to accelerate America’s transition to a clean energy economy. WIP’s mission is to partner with state and local organizations to improve energy security and to significantly accelerate the deployment of clean energy technologies and practices by a wide range of government, community, and business stakeholders.

Simulation of a Real-Time Local Data Integration System over East-Central Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan

1999-01-01

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) simulated a real-time configuration of a Local Data Integration System (LDIS) using data from 15-28 February 1999. The objectives were to assess the utility of a simulated real-time LDIS, evaluate and extrapolate system performance to identify the hardware necessary to run a real-time LDIS, and determine the sensitivities of LDIS. The ultimate goal for running LDIS is to generate analysis products that enhance short-range (less than 6 h) weather forecasts issued in support of the 45th Weather Squadron, Spaceflight Meteorology Group, and Melbourne National Weather Service operational requirements. The simulation used the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) software on an IBM RS/6000 workstation with a 67-MHz processor. This configuration ran in real-time, but not sufficiently fast for operational requirements. Thus, the AMU recommends a workstation with a 200-MHz processor and 512 megabytes of memory to run the AMU's configuration of LDIS in real-time. This report presents results from two case studies and several data sensitivity experiments. ADAS demonstrates utility through its ability to depict high-resolution cloud and wind features in a variety of weather situations. The sensitivity experiments illustrate the influence of disparate data on the resulting ADAS analyses.

A Synoptic Weather Typing Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Meteorological and Hydrological Risks at Local Scale in South-Central Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Chad Shouquan; Li, Qian; Li, Guilong

2010-05-01

The synoptic weather typing approach has become popular in evaluating the impacts of climate change on a variety of environmental problems. One of the reasons is its ability to categorize a complex set of meteorological variables as a coherent index, which can facilitate analyses of local climate change impacts. The weather typing method has been applied in Environment Canada to analyze climatic change impacts on various meteorological/hydrological risks, such as freezing rain, heavy rainfall, high-/low-flow events, air pollution, and human health. These studies comprise of three major parts: (1) historical simulation modeling to verify the hazardous events, (2) statistical downscaling to provide station-scale future climate information, and (3) estimates of changes in frequency and magnitude of future hazardous meteorological/hydrological events in this century. To achieve these goals, in addition to synoptic weather typing, the modeling conceptualizations in meteorology and hydrology and various linear/nonlinear regression techniques were applied. Furthermore, a formal model result verification process has been built into the entire modeling exercise. The results of the verification, based on historical observations of the outcome variables predicted by the models, showed very good agreement. This paper will briefly summarize these research projects, focusing on the modeling exercise and results.

Breast Cancer-Related Arm Lymphedema: Fluctuation over Six Months and the Effect of the Weather.

PubMed

Czerniec, Sharon A; Ward, Leigh C; Kilbreath, Sharon L

2016-09-01

An understanding of normal fluctuation of lymphedema over time is important to identify real change, whether it is from response to treatment or worsening of the condition. The weather is another factor that possibly influences lymphedema but has had minimal investigation to date. The purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which breast cancer-related lymphedema (BCRL) fluctuated over a 6-month period and the influence of temperature, humidity, and barometric pressure. Women with unilateral BCRL (n = 26) and without BCRL (n = 17) were measured on nine occasions over 6 months using a standardized protocol. Measures included self-reported arm swelling, arm volume, and extracellular fluid with bioimpedance. Daily weather data were obtained for analysis of effects on lymphedema. Neither arm volume nor extracellular fluid varied significantly for women with lymphedema; coefficients of variation were 2.3% and 3.7%, respectively. Women without lymphedema had even less fluctuation, with coefficient of variation of 1.9% for arm volume and 2.9% for ECF. Correlation of weather and lymphedema data showed that temperature was the only aspect of the weather to have any effect on BCRL, with the maximum temperature on the day before measurement slightly affecting ECF (r = 0.27, p < 0.001), arm volume (r = 0.23, p < 0.001), and self-reported swelling (r = 0.26, p < 0.001). For women without lymphedema, the weather did not affect any measure. Established BCRL is relatively stable over a 6-month period. Temperature was the only aspect of the weather found to impact lymphedema.

Monitoring a local extreme weather event with the scope of hyperspectral sounding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satapathy, Jyotirmayee; Jangid, Buddhi Prakash

2018-06-01

Operational space-based hyperspectral Infrared sounders retrieve atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles from the measured radiances. These sounders like Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder, Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer as well as INSAT-3D sounders on geostationary orbit have proved to be very successful in providing these retrievals on global and regional scales, respectively, with good enough spatio-temporal resolutions and are well competent with that of traditional profiles from radiosondes and models fields. The aim of this work is to show how these new generation hyperspectral Infrared sounders can benefit in real-time weather monitoring. We have considered a regional extreme weather event to demonstrate how the profiles retrieved from these operational sounders are consistent with the environmental conditions which have led to this severe weather event. This work has also made use of data products of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer as well as by radiative transfer simulation of clear and cloudy atmospheric conditions using Numerical Weather Prediction profiles in conjunction with INSAT-3D sounder. Our results indicate the potential use of high-quality hyperspectral atmospheric profiles to aid in delineation of real-time weather prediction.

Satellite Sounder Data Assimilation for Improving Alaska Region Weather Forecast

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Jiang; Stevens, E.; Zhang, X.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Heinrichs, T.; Broderson, D.

2014-01-01

A case study and monthly statistical analysis using sounder data assimilation to improve the Alaska regional weather forecast model are presented. Weather forecast in Alaska faces challenges as well as opportunities. Alaska has a large land with multiple types of topography and coastal area. Weather forecast models must be finely tuned in order to accurately predict weather in Alaska. Being in the high-latitudes provides Alaska greater coverage of polar orbiting satellites for integration into forecasting models than the lower 48. Forecasting marine low stratus clouds is critical to the Alaska aviation and oil industry and is the current focus of the case study. NASA AIRS/CrIS sounder profiles data are used to do data assimilation for the Alaska regional weather forecast model to improve Arctic marine stratus clouds forecast. Choosing physical options for the WRF model is discussed. Preprocess of AIRS/CrIS sounder data for data assimilation is described. Local observation data, satellite data, and global data assimilation data are used to verify and/or evaluate the forecast results by the MET tools Model Evaluation Tools (MET).

NASA Products to Enhance Energy Utility Load Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lough, G.; Zell, E.; Engel-Cox, J.; Fungard, Y.; Jedlovec, G.; Stackhouse, P.; Homer, R.; Biley, S.

2012-01-01

Existing energy load forecasting tools rely upon historical load and forecasted weather to predict load within energy company service areas. The shortcomings of load forecasts are often the result of weather forecasts that are not at a fine enough spatial or temporal resolution to capture local-scale weather events. This project aims to improve the performance of load forecasting tools through the integration of high-resolution, weather-related NASA Earth Science Data, such as temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. Three companies are participating in operational testing one natural gas company, and two electric providers. Operational results comparing load forecasts with and without NASA weather forecasts have been generated since March 2010. We have worked with end users at the three companies to refine selection of weather forecast information and optimize load forecast model performance. The project will conclude in 2012 with transitioning documented improvements from the inclusion of NASA forecasts for sustained use by energy utilities nationwide in a variety of load forecasting tools. In addition, Battelle has consulted with energy companies nationwide to document their information needs for long-term planning, in light of climate change and regulatory impacts.

Promoting Protection Against a Threat That Evokes Positive Affect: The Case of Heat Waves in the United Kingdom

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Heat waves can cause death, illness, and discomfort, and are expected to become more frequent as a result of climate change. Yet, United Kingdom residents have positive feelings about hot summers that may undermine their willingness to protect themselves against heat. We randomly assigned United Kingdom participants to 1 of 3 intervention strategies intended to promote heat protection, or to a control group. The first strategy aimed to build on the availability heuristic by asking participants to remember high summer temperatures, but it elicited thoughts of pleasantly hot summer weather. The second strategy aimed to build on the affect heuristic by evoking negative affect about summer temperatures, but it evoked thoughts of unpleasantly cold summer weather. The third strategy combined these 2 approaches and succeeded in evoking thoughts of unpleasantly hot summer weather. Across 2 experiments, the third (combined) strategy increased participants’ expressed intentions to protect against heat compared with the control group, while performing at least as well as the 2 component strategies. We discuss implications for developing interventions about other “pleasant hazards.” PMID:27268282

Space Weather Influence on the Earth wheat markets: past, present, and future.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pustil'Nik, Lev

We consider problem of a possible influence of unfavorable states of the space weather on agriculture market through chain of connections: "space weather"-"earth weather"-"agriculture crops"-"price reaction". We show that new manifestations of "space weather"-"earth weather" relations discovered in the last time allow to revise wide field of expected solar-terrestrial connections. In the previous works we proposed possible mechanisms of wheat market reaction in the form of price bursts on the specific unfavorable states of space weather. We show that implementation of considered "price reaction scenarios" is possible only for condition of simultaneous realization of several necessary conditions: high sensitivity of local earth weather in selected region to space weather; state of "high risk agriculture" in selected agriculture zone; high sensitivity of agricultural market to possible deficit of supply. Results of previous works (I, II) included application of this approach to wheat market in Medieval England and to modern USA durum market showed that real connection between wheat price bursts and space weather state is observed with high confidence level. The aim of present work is answer on the question, why wheat markets in one region are sensitive to space weather factor, while another regional wheat markets demonstrate absolute indifferent reaction on this factor. For this aim we consider distribution of sensitivity of wheat markets in Europe to space weather as function of localization in different climatic zones. We analyze giant database of 95 European wheat markets from 14 countries during about 600-year period (1260-1912). We show that observed sensitivity of wheat market to space weather effects controlled, first of all, by type of predominant climate in different zones of agriculture. Wheat markets in the North and part of Central Europe (England, Iceland, Holland) shows reliable sensitivity to space weather in minimum states of solar activity with low solar wind, high cosmic ray flux and North Atlantic cloudiness, caused by CR excess, with negative sequences for wheat agriculture in this humid zone. In the same time wheat markets in the South Europe (Spain, Italy) show reliable sensitivity to space weather state in the opposite (maximum) phase of solar activity with strong solar wind, low cosmic ray flux and deficit of CR input in cloudiness in North Atlantic with next deficit of precipitations in the arid zones of the South Europe. In the same time the large part of markets in the Central Europe zone, functioned far from "high risk agriculture state" show the absence of any effects-responses on space weather. This asymmetry is in accordance with model expectation in the frame of proposed approach. For extremely case of the Iceland agriculture we show that drop of agriculture production in unfavorable states of space weather leads to mass mortality from famines correlated with phase of solar activity with high confi- dence level. We discuss possible increasing of sensitivity of wheat markets to space weather effects in condition of drastic and fast change of modern climate, caused by global warming of the Earth atmosphere with fast and unexpected shift of numerous agriculture regions in the world to state of "high risk agriculture zone". Publications on the theme of review: I. "INFLUENCE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY ON THE STATE OF THE WHEAT MARKET IN MEDIEVAL ENGLAND", Solar Physics 223: 335-356, 2004. c 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers II. "SPACE CLIMATE MANIFESTATION IN EARTH PRICES - FROM MEDIEVAL ENGLAND UP TO MODERN U.S.A.", LEV PUSTIL'NIK and GREGORY YOM DIN, Solar Physics, 224: 473-481 c Springer 2005

Memories and Perceptions of Weather and Climate in the Denver Metropolitan Area: Calibrating the Human Thermometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malmberg, J.; Blanken, P.

2006-12-01

Due to a lack of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) data in locations such as polar regions, non- traditional datasets such as indigenous local knowledge are sometimes used as an indicator of climate change. Local indigenous knowledge depends on human memory of weather and climate, yet the accuracy of this knowledge has not been checked. The purpose of this study is to determine how accurate recollections of memory and climate are, and what may influence these memories. This pilot study examined recollections of weather and climate in the Denver metropolitan area, a WMO location, in periods varying from days to years. The approximately 400 respondents answered questions about the weather, climate, and various factors (e.g. gender, education, occupation) that may influence memories of weather and climate via an online survey. Results were compared to the actual meteorological conditions recorded at the Denver-Boulder National Weather Service Forecast Office and at the Western Regional Climate Center. When asked to give the minimum and maximum daily temperature ranges and significant weather, participants' accuracy decreased as the length of time since the day or event increased. For example, more than 85% of participants had an accurate response one day in the past, and this decreased to less than 50% for conditions seven days in the past. When asked about climate data two years ago, most respondents recalled the temperature trend (e.g. higher, about the same, or lower), however, participants did not agree about precipitation amounts (e.g. more, about the same amount, or less). Other factors (e.g gender, education, occupation) did not seem to influence weather memories two years prior to the survey. When asked to recall climate 20 years prior to the survey, more participants (up to 44%) reported that they did not remember. Of participants who did select a trend, the temperature trend was again more accurate than the precipitation trend. The role of factors that had a significant effect on responses, including, gender, time spend outdoors, and education, will be discussed.

Uncertainty Comparison of Visual Sensing in Adverse Weather Conditions†

PubMed Central

Lo, Shi-Wei; Wu, Jyh-Horng; Chen, Lun-Chi; Tseng, Chien-Hao; Lin, Fang-Pang; Hsu, Ching-Han

2016-01-01

This paper focuses on flood-region detection using monitoring images. However, adverse weather affects the outcome of image segmentation methods. In this paper, we present an experimental comparison of an outdoor visual sensing system using region-growing methods with two different growing rules—namely, GrowCut and RegGro. For each growing rule, several tests on adverse weather and lens-stained scenes were performed, taking into account and analyzing different weather conditions with the outdoor visual sensing system. The influence of several weather conditions was analyzed, highlighting their effect on the outdoor visual sensing system with different growing rules. Furthermore, experimental errors and uncertainties obtained with the growing rules were compared. The segmentation accuracy of flood regions yielded by the GrowCut, RegGro, and hybrid methods was 75%, 85%, and 87.7%, respectively. PMID:27447642

Weather conditions and voter turnout in Dutch national parliament elections, 1971-2010.

PubMed

Eisinga, Rob; Te Grotenhuis, Manfred; Pelzer, Ben

2012-07-01

While conventional wisdom assumes that inclement weather on election day reduces voter turnout, there is remarkably little evidence available to support truth to such belief. This paper examines the effects of temperature, sunshine duration and rainfall on voter turnout in 13 Dutch national parliament elections held from 1971 to 2010. It merges the election results from over 400 municipalities with election-day weather data drawn from the nearest weather station. We find that the weather parameters indeed affect voter turnout. Election-day rainfall of roughly 25 mm (1 inch) reduces turnout by a rate of one percent, whereas a 10-degree-Celsius increase in temperature correlates with an increase of almost one percent in overall turnout. One hundred percent sunshine corresponds to a one and a half percent greater voter turnout compared to zero sunshine.

The Weather family's Hurricane Katrina saga: Leonard Weather Jr., MD of New Orleans. Interview by George Dawson.

PubMed Central

Weather, Leonard

2006-01-01

This interview of Leonard Weather Jr., MD was conducted so as to give our members and the medical community at large a version of what a New Orleans, LA physician of African-American descent experienced during Hurricane Katrina and its devastating aftermath. Emile Riley, MD, Meharry Medical School graduate, general surgeon, role model, and New Orleans Civic Leader who helped to blaze the trail for other local African-American physicians, died January 31, 2006 at the St. Luke's Episcopal Hospital in Houston, TX at the age of 71. He evacuated to Houston prior to Hurricane Katrina. PMID:16749655

The Weather family's Hurricane Katrina saga: Leonard Weather Jr., MD of New Orleans. Interview by George Dawson.

PubMed

Weather, Leonard

2006-05-01

This interview of Leonard Weather Jr., MD was conducted so as to give our members and the medical community at large a version of what a New Orleans, LA physician of African-American descent experienced during Hurricane Katrina and its devastating aftermath. Emile Riley, MD, Meharry Medical School graduate, general surgeon, role model, and New Orleans Civic Leader who helped to blaze the trail for other local African-American physicians, died January 31, 2006 at the St. Luke's Episcopal Hospital in Houston, TX at the age of 71. He evacuated to Houston prior to Hurricane Katrina.