Prevalence of Pseudobulbar Affect following Stroke: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Gillespie, David C; Cadden, Amy P; Lees, Rosalind; West, Robert M; Broomfield, Niall M

2016-03-01

Several studies have reported that emotional lability is a common consequence of stroke. However, there is uncertainty about the "true" prevalence of the condition because, across these studies, patients have been recruited at different stages of recovery, from different settings, and using different diagnostic methods. There have been no systematic reviews of the published evidence to ascertain how the prevalence of poststroke pseudobulbar affect (PBA) might vary according to these factors. A systematic review and meta-analysis of the published literature were undertaken. A total of 15 studies (n = 3391 participants) met inclusion criteria for the review. Meta-analysis estimated that the prevalence of PBA was 17% (95% confidence interval 12%-24%) acutely (<1 month post stroke), 20% (14%-29%) post acutely (1-6 months post stroke), and 12% (8%-17%) in the medium to longer term (>6 months post stroke). The evidence from the published literature, although limited, is that crying is a more common PBA presentation following stroke than laughter. PBA is a common condition that affects approximately 1 in 5 stroke survivors at the acute and postacute phases, and 1 in 8 survivors beyond 6 months post stroke. These prevalence data are very important for clinicians and the commissioners of services. Copyright © 2016 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating the Global Prevalence of Inadequate Zinc Intake from National Food Balance Sheets: Effects of Methodological Assumptions

PubMed Central

Wessells, K. Ryan; Singh, Gitanjali M.; Brown, Kenneth H.

2012-01-01

Background The prevalence of inadequate zinc intake in a population can be estimated by comparing the zinc content of the food supply with the population’s theoretical requirement for zinc. However, assumptions regarding the nutrient composition of foods, zinc requirements, and zinc absorption may affect prevalence estimates. These analyses were conducted to: (1) evaluate the effect of varying methodological assumptions on country-specific estimates of the prevalence of dietary zinc inadequacy and (2) generate a model considered to provide the best estimates. Methodology and Principal Findings National food balance data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Zinc and phytate contents of these foods were estimated from three nutrient composition databases. Zinc absorption was predicted using a mathematical model (Miller equation). Theoretical mean daily per capita physiological and dietary requirements for zinc were calculated using recommendations from the Food and Nutrition Board of the Institute of Medicine and the International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group. The estimated global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake varied between 12–66%, depending on which methodological assumptions were applied. However, country-specific rank order of the estimated prevalence of inadequate intake was conserved across all models (r = 0.57–0.99, P<0.01). A “best-estimate” model, comprised of zinc and phytate data from a composite nutrient database and IZiNCG physiological requirements for absorbed zinc, estimated the global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake to be 17.3%. Conclusions and Significance Given the multiple sources of uncertainty in this method, caution must be taken in the interpretation of the estimated prevalence figures. However, the results of all models indicate that inadequate zinc intake may be fairly common globally. Inferences regarding the relative likelihood of zinc deficiency as a public health

A novel, efficient method for estimating the prevalence of acute malnutrition in resource-constrained and crisis-affected settings: A simulation study.

PubMed

Frison, Severine; Kerac, Marko; Checchi, Francesco; Nicholas, Jennifer

2017-01-01

The assessment of the prevalence of acute malnutrition in children under five is widely used for the detection of emergencies, planning interventions, advocacy, and monitoring and evaluation. This study examined PROBIT Methods which convert parameters (mean and standard deviation (SD)) of a normally distributed variable to a cumulative probability below any cut-off to estimate acute malnutrition in children under five using Middle-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC). We assessed the performance of: PROBIT Method I, with mean MUAC from the survey sample and MUAC SD from a database of previous surveys; and PROBIT Method II, with mean and SD of MUAC observed in the survey sample. Specifically, we generated sub-samples from 852 survey datasets, simulating 100 surveys for eight sample sizes. Overall the methods were tested on 681 600 simulated surveys. PROBIT methods relying on sample sizes as small as 50 had better performance than the classic method for estimating and classifying the prevalence of acute malnutrition. They had better precision in the estimation of acute malnutrition for all sample sizes and better coverage for smaller sample sizes, while having relatively little bias. They classified situations accurately for a threshold of 5% acute malnutrition. Both PROBIT methods had similar outcomes. PROBIT Methods have a clear advantage in the assessment of acute malnutrition prevalence based on MUAC, compared to the classic method. Their use would require much lower sample sizes, thus enable great time and resource savings and permit timely and/or locally relevant prevalence estimates of acute malnutrition for a swift and well-targeted response.

The effect of participant nonresponse on HIV prevalence estimates in a population-based survey in two informal settlements in Nairobi city

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Participant nonresponse in an HIV serosurvey can affect estimates of HIV prevalence. Nonresponse can arise from a participant's refusal to provide a blood sample or the failure to trace a sampled individual. In a serosurvey conducted by the African Population and Health Research Center and Kenya Medical Research Centre in the slums of Nairobi, 43% of sampled individuals did not provide a blood sample. This paper describes selective participation in the serosurvey and estimates bias in HIV prevalence figures. Methods The paper uses data derived from an HIV serosurvey nested in an on-going demographic surveillance system. Nonresponse was assessed using logistic regression and multiple imputation methods to impute missing data for HIV status using a set of common variables available for all sampled participants. Results Age, residence, high mobility, wealth, and ethnicity were independent predictors of a sampled individual not being contacted. Individuals aged 30-34 years, females, individuals from the Kikuyu and Kamba ethnicity, married participants, and residents of Viwandani were all less likely to accept HIV testing when contacted. Although men were less likely to be contacted, those found were more willing to be tested compared to females. The overall observed HIV prevalence was overestimated by 2%. The observed prevalence for male participants was underestimated by about 1% and that for females was overestimated by 3%. These differences were small and did not affect the overall estimate substantially as the observed estimates fell within the confidence limits of the corrected prevalence estimate. Conclusions Nonresponse in the HIV serosurvey in the two informal settlements was high, however, the effect on overall prevalence estimate was minimal. PMID:20649957

A multilevel model for cardiovascular disease prevalence in the US and its application to micro area prevalence estimates.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2009-01-30

Estimates of disease prevalence for small areas are increasingly required for the allocation of health funds according to local need. Both individual level and geographic risk factors are likely to be relevant to explaining prevalence variations, and in turn relevant to the procedure for small area prevalence estimation. Prevalence estimates are of particular importance for major chronic illnesses such as cardiovascular disease. A multilevel prevalence model for cardiovascular outcomes is proposed that incorporates both survey information on patient risk factors and the effects of geographic location. The model is applied to derive micro area prevalence estimates, specifically estimates of cardiovascular disease for Zip Code Tabulation Areas in the USA. The model incorporates prevalence differentials by age, sex, ethnicity and educational attainment from the 2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. Influences of geographic context are modelled at both county and state level, with the county effects relating to poverty and urbanity. State level influences are modelled using a random effects approach that allows both for spatial correlation and spatial isolates. To assess the importance of geographic variables, three types of model are compared: a model with person level variables only; a model with geographic effects that do not interact with person attributes; and a full model, allowing for state level random effects that differ by ethnicity. There is clear evidence that geographic effects improve statistical fit. Geographic variations in disease prevalence partly reflect the demographic composition of area populations. However, prevalence variations may also show distinct geographic 'contextual' effects. The present study demonstrates by formal modelling methods that improved explanation is obtained by allowing for distinct geographic effects (for counties and states) and for interaction between geographic and person variables. Thus an appropriate

A multilevel model for cardiovascular disease prevalence in the US and its application to micro area prevalence estimates

PubMed Central

Congdon, Peter

2009-01-01

Background Estimates of disease prevalence for small areas are increasingly required for the allocation of health funds according to local need. Both individual level and geographic risk factors are likely to be relevant to explaining prevalence variations, and in turn relevant to the procedure for small area prevalence estimation. Prevalence estimates are of particular importance for major chronic illnesses such as cardiovascular disease. Methods A multilevel prevalence model for cardiovascular outcomes is proposed that incorporates both survey information on patient risk factors and the effects of geographic location. The model is applied to derive micro area prevalence estimates, specifically estimates of cardiovascular disease for Zip Code Tabulation Areas in the USA. The model incorporates prevalence differentials by age, sex, ethnicity and educational attainment from the 2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. Influences of geographic context are modelled at both county and state level, with the county effects relating to poverty and urbanity. State level influences are modelled using a random effects approach that allows both for spatial correlation and spatial isolates. Results To assess the importance of geographic variables, three types of model are compared: a model with person level variables only; a model with geographic effects that do not interact with person attributes; and a full model, allowing for state level random effects that differ by ethnicity. There is clear evidence that geographic effects improve statistical fit. Conclusion Geographic variations in disease prevalence partly reflect the demographic composition of area populations. However, prevalence variations may also show distinct geographic 'contextual' effects. The present study demonstrates by formal modelling methods that improved explanation is obtained by allowing for distinct geographic effects (for counties and states) and for interaction between geographic and

Estimating the prevalence of female genital mutilation in Portugal.

PubMed

Teixeira, A L; Lisboa, M

2016-10-01

Due to globalized migratory processes, female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) has spread to other countries, including countries in Europe, where, with a few exceptions, it remains a concealed problem. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first national extensive study to estimate the prevalence of FGM/C in Portugal. Prevalence estimation. Using extrapolation of country-of-origin prevalence data and the 2011 Census data, this study estimated: the prevalence of FGM/C in Portugal among women of reproductive age (15-49 years) and among all women aged ≥15 years; and the number of girls aged <15 years living in Portugal who have undergone or will probably undergo FGM/C. It is estimated that 6576 women aged ≥15 years living in Portugal have undergone FGM/C, with cases distributed unevenly throughout the national territory. In addition, it is estimated that 1830 girls aged <15 years living in Portugal have undergone or are likely to undergo FGM/C. This study estimated that more than 6000 women living in Portugal have undergone FGM/C, and many girls remain at risk. These two groups need different types of interventions. Awareness of the number and geographical dispersion of cases of FGM/C will enable more informed and targeted definition of public health policies for protection of females who have undergone or are at risk of undergoing FGM/C. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dying for a smoke: how much does differential mortality of smokers affect estimated life-course smoking prevalence?

PubMed

Christopoulou, Rebekka; Han, Jeffrey; Jaber, Ahmed; Lillard, Dean R

2011-01-01

An extensive literature uses reconstructed historical smoking rates by birth-cohort to inform anti-smoking policies. This paper examines whether and how these rates change when one adjusts for differential mortality of smokers and non-smokers. Using retrospectively reported data from the US (Panel Study of Income Dynamics, 1986, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005), the UK (British Household Panel Survey, 1999, 2002), and Russia (Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Study, 2000), we generate life-course smoking prevalence rates by age-cohort. With cause-specific death rates from secondary sources and an improved method, we correct for differential mortality, and we test whether adjusted and unadjusted rates statistically differ. With US data (National Health Interview Survey, 1967-2004), we also compare contemporaneously measured smoking prevalence rates with the equivalent rates from retrospective data. We find that differential mortality matters only for men. For Russian men over age 70 and US and UK men over age 80 unadjusted smoking prevalence understates the true prevalence. The results using retrospective and contemporaneous data are similar. Differential mortality bias affects our understanding of smoking habits of old cohorts and, therefore, of inter-generational patterns of smoking. Unless one focuses on the young, policy recommendations based on unadjusted smoking rates may be misleading. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation and Projection of Prevalence of Colorectal Cancer in Iran, 2015-2020.

PubMed

Vardanjani, Hossein Molavi; Haghdoost, AliAkbar; Bagheri-Lankarani, Kamran; Hadipour, Maryam

2018-01-01

Population aging and more prevalent westernized lifestyle would be expected to result in a markedly rising burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the future years. The aim of this study is to estimate the limited-time prevalence of CRC in Iran between 2015 and 2020. Aggregated CRC incidence data were extracted from the Iranian national cancer registry (IR.NCR) reports for 2003-2009 and from GLOBOCAN-2012 database for 2012. Incidence trends were analyzed by age groups, genders, histopathologic, and topographic subtypes to estimate annual percentage changes. Incidence was projected for 2020. The prevalence was estimated applying an adopted version of a previously introduced equation to estimate limited-time prevalence based on the incidence and survival data. Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses were applied to estimate 95% uncertainty levels (ULs). In each scenario, incidence, survival, annual percentage changes, and completeness of case ascertainment at IR.NCR were replaced under pre-assumed distributions. Number of estimated within 1, 2-3 and 4-5-year CRC patients in 2015 were 13676 (95% UL: 10051-18807), 20964 (15835-28268), and 14485 (11188-19293), respectively. Estimated 5-year prevalence for 2020 (99463; 75150-134744) was 2.03 times of that for 2015. Highest 5-year prevalence was estimated in ages 55-59 for females and 75 + for males. Adenocarcinoma (41376; 31227 55898) was the most prevalent histologic subtype. The most prevalent tumor location was colon (30822, 23262-41638). A substantial growth in the prevalence of CRC survivors is highly expected for future years in Iran. Establishment of specialized institutes is highly recommended to provide medical and especially social supports for Iranian CRC survivors.

Geostatistical Model-Based Estimates of Schistosomiasis Prevalence among Individuals Aged ≤20 Years in West Africa

PubMed Central

Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Garba, Amadou; Traoré, Mamadou S.; Ndir, Omar; Ratard, Raoult C.; Tchuem Tchuenté, Louis-Albert; Kristensen, Thomas K.; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

2011-01-01

Background Schistosomiasis is a water-based disease that is believed to affect over 200 million people with an estimated 97% of the infections concentrated in Africa. However, these statistics are largely based on population re-adjusted data originally published by Utroska and colleagues more than 20 years ago. Hence, these estimates are outdated due to large-scale preventive chemotherapy programs, improved sanitation, water resources development and management, among other reasons. For planning, coordination, and evaluation of control activities, it is essential to possess reliable schistosomiasis prevalence maps. Methodology We analyzed survey data compiled on a newly established open-access global neglected tropical diseases database (i) to create smooth empirical prevalence maps for Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium for individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa, including Cameroon, and (ii) to derive country-specific prevalence estimates. We used Bayesian geostatistical models based on environmental predictors to take into account potential clustering due to common spatially structured exposures. Prediction at unobserved locations was facilitated by joint kriging. Principal Findings Our models revealed that 50.8 million individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa are infected with either S. mansoni, or S. haematobium, or both species concurrently. The country prevalence estimates ranged between 0.5% (The Gambia) and 37.1% (Liberia) for S. mansoni, and between 17.6% (The Gambia) and 51.6% (Sierra Leone) for S. haematobium. We observed that the combined prevalence for both schistosome species is two-fold lower in Gambia than previously reported, while we found an almost two-fold higher estimate for Liberia (58.3%) than reported before (30.0%). Our predictions are likely to overestimate overall country prevalence, since modeling was based on children and adolescents up to the age of 20 years who are at highest risk of infection. Conclusion/Significance We

Estimating HIV incidence among key affected populations in China from serial cross-sectional surveys in 2010-2014.

PubMed

Cui, Yan; Guo, Wei; Li, Dongmin; Wang, Liyan; Shi, Cynthia X; Brookmeyer, Ron; Detels, Roger; Ge, Lin; Ding, Zhengwei; Wu, Zunyou

2016-01-01

HIV incidence is an important measure for monitoring the development of the epidemic, but it is difficult to ascertain. We combined serial HIV prevalence and mortality data to estimate HIV incidence among key affected populations (KAPs) in China. Serial cross-sectional surveys were conducted among KAPs from 2010 to 2014. Trends in HIV prevalence were assessed by the Cochran-Armitage test, adjusted by risk group. HIV incidence was estimated from a mathematical model that describes the relationship between changes in HIV incidence with HIV prevalence and mortality. The crude HIV prevalence for the survey samples remained stable at 1.1 to 1.2% from 2010 to 2014. Among drug users (DUs), HIV prevalence declined from 4.48 to 3.29% (p<0.0001), and among men who have sex with men (MSM), HIV prevalence increased from 5.73 to 7.75% (p<0.0001). Changes in HIV prevalence among female sex workers (FSWs) and male patients of sexually transmitted disease clinics were more modest but remained statistically significant (all p<0.0001). The MSM population had the highest incidence estimates at 0.74% in 2011, 0.59% in 2012, 0.57% in 2013 and 0.53% in 2014. Estimates of the annual incidence for DUs and FSWs were very low and may not be reliable. Serial cross-sectional prevalence data from representative samples may be another approach to construct approximate estimates of national HIV incidence among key populations. We observed that the MSM population had the highest incidence for HIV among high-risk groups in China, and we suggest that interventions targeting MSM are urgently needed to curb the growing HIV epidemic.

[Estimated prevalence of autism spectrum disorders in the Canary Islands].

PubMed

Fortea Sevilla, M S; Escandell Bermúdez, M O; Castro Sánchez, J J

2013-12-01

To make an initial estimate of the prevalence of autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) among children in the province of Las Palmas (Spain). Descriptive study was conducted on 1,796 children between the ages of 18 and 30 months of age, all part of the Child Health Surveillance of the Canary Islands, more specifically the province of Las Palmas, with a population of 1,090,605. The parents of children involved completed the Spanish version of the Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers (M-CHAT/ES) in the paediatric clinic. The positive cases were then diagnosed by experts by means of the Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised (ADIR) and the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS). A 0.61% prevalence of ASDs was determined, similar to that reported in previous studies using the same tools. The ratio was six girls for every five boys. This was contrary to the results of previous studies which suggested more boys than girls were affected. This may have been due to the sample size, which will have to be increased in future studies to confirm this outcome. An increased sample size and also spread to other age ranges should be used in order to obtain a more reliable estimate of prevalence. As regards the gender ratio, this could be a result of the small size of the sample researched, and should therefore be confirmed by further studies. Copyright © 2012 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Estimating HIV incidence among key affected populations in China from serial cross-sectional surveys in 2010–2014

PubMed Central

Cui, Yan; Guo, Wei; Li, Dongmin; Wang, Liyan; Shi, Cynthia X; Brookmeyer, Ron; Detels, Roger; Ge, Lin; Ding, Zhengwei; Wu, Zunyou

2016-01-01

Introduction HIV incidence is an important measure for monitoring the development of the epidemic, but it is difficult to ascertain. We combined serial HIV prevalence and mortality data to estimate HIV incidence among key affected populations (KAPs) in China. Methods Serial cross-sectional surveys were conducted among KAPs from 2010 to 2014. Trends in HIV prevalence were assessed by the Cochran-Armitage test, adjusted by risk group. HIV incidence was estimated from a mathematical model that describes the relationship between changes in HIV incidence with HIV prevalence and mortality. Results The crude HIV prevalence for the survey samples remained stable at 1.1 to 1.2% from 2010 to 2014. Among drug users (DUs), HIV prevalence declined from 4.48 to 3.29% (p<0.0001), and among men who have sex with men (MSM), HIV prevalence increased from 5.73 to 7.75% (p<0.0001). Changes in HIV prevalence among female sex workers (FSWs) and male patients of sexually transmitted disease clinics were more modest but remained statistically significant (all p<0.0001). The MSM population had the highest incidence estimates at 0.74% in 2011, 0.59% in 2012, 0.57% in 2013 and 0.53% in 2014. Estimates of the annual incidence for DUs and FSWs were very low and may not be reliable. Conclusions Serial cross-sectional prevalence data from representative samples may be another approach to construct approximate estimates of national HIV incidence among key populations. We observed that the MSM population had the highest incidence for HIV among high-risk groups in China, and we suggest that interventions targeting MSM are urgently needed to curb the growing HIV epidemic. PMID:26989062

The prevalence of disability among children: paradigms and estimates.

PubMed

Mudrick, Nancy R

2002-11-01

Every examination of disability among children must first grapple with definition of disability. The challenges to identifying disability among children involve not only determining the appropriate paradigm for defining disability, but also applying that paradigm to children in a meaningful way. This discussion of the prevalence of disability among children starts by examining the various paradigms utilized to identify disability and how they are interpreted when applied to children. Estimates of the prevalence of childhood disability, under different definitions of disability are presented. The goal of the discussion is to illustrate the sensitivity of the estimates of disability prevalence to the particular definition and data set used. Finally, the potential influence of the choice of paradigm on further measurement and service delivery is outlined.

Lifetime and 12-month prevalence estimates for mental disorders in northeastern Germany: findings from the Study of Health in Pomerania.

PubMed

Asselmann, E; Beesdo-Baum, K; Hamm, A; Schmidt, C O; Hertel, J; Grabe, H J; Pané-Farré, C A

2018-06-15

Few epidemiological studies presented 12-month and lifetime prevalence estimates for DSM-IV mental disorders in the adult general population by sex and age up to very old age. From 2007 to 2010, DSM-IV mental disorders were assessed with the DIA-X/M-CIDI among N = 2400 participants (aged 29-89 years) from the Study of Health in Pomerania, an epidemiological study based on a two-stage stratified cluster sample randomly drawn from the adult general population in northeastern Germany. 36.3% of the sample was affected by any 12-month and 54.8% by any lifetime mental disorder. The most frequent diagnostic groups were anxiety (12-month: 14.8%, lifetime: 23.4%), substance use (12-month: 14.5%, lifetime: 25.0%), somatoform (12-month: 12.9%, lifetime: 20.4%) and depressive (12-month: 7.3%, lifetime: 18.6%) disorders. Except for substance use (higher prevalence in men) and bipolar disorders (comparable prevalence in men and women), higher 12-month and lifetime prevalence estimates were found in women vs. men. Moreover, lower 12-month and lifetime prevalence estimates were found in older (aged 60-74 or 75-89 years) vs. younger (aged 29-44 or 45-59 years) age groups. 22.6% (men: 21.1%, women: 23.9%) of those affected by any 12-month disorder met criteria for two and 13.6% (men: 9.6%, women: 16.9%) for three or more 12-month diagnoses. Similarly, 26.4% (men: 25.7%, women: 26.9%) of those affected by any lifetime disorder met criteria for two and 22.7% (men: 19.6%, women: 25.2%) for three or more lifetime diagnoses. Our findings demonstrate the frequency of mental disorders in northeastern Germany and emphasize the need for continued prevention and intervention efforts.

Evidence-based design recommendations for prevalence studies on multimorbidity: improving comparability of estimates.

PubMed

Holzer, Barbara M; Siebenhuener, Klarissa; Bopp, Matthias; Minder, Christoph E

2017-03-07

In aging populations, multimorbidity causes a disease burden of growing importance and cost. However, estimates of the prevalence of multimorbidity (prevMM) vary widely across studies, impeding valid comparisons and interpretation of differences. With this study we pursued two research objectives: (1) to identify a set of study design and demographic factors related to prevMM, and (2) based on (1), to formulate design recommendations for future studies with improved comparability of prevalence estimates. Study data were obtained through systematic review of the literature. UsingPubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, BIOSIS, and Google Scholar, we looked for articles with the terms "multimorbidity," "comorbidity," "polymorbidity," and variations of these published in English or German in the years 1990 to 2011. We selected quantitative studies of the prevalence of multimorbidity (two or more chronic medical conditions) with a minimum sample size of 50 and a study population with a majority of Caucasians. Our database consisted of prevalence estimates in 108 age groups taken from 45 studies. To assess the effects of study design variables, we used meta regression models. In 58% of the studies, there was only one age group, i.e., no stratification by age. The number of persons per age group ranged from 136 to 5.6 million. Our analyses identified the following variables as highly significant: "mean age," "number of age groups", and "data reporting quality" (all p < 0.0001). "Setting," "disease classification," and "number of diseases in the classification" were significant (0.01 < p ≤ 0.03), and "data collection period" and "data source" were non-significant. A separate analysis showed that prevMM was significantly higher in women than men (sign test, p = 0.0015). Comparable prevalence estimates are urgently needed for realistic description of the magnitude of the problem of multimorbidity. Based on the results of our analyses of variables

Sampling studies to estimate the HIV prevalence rate in female commercial sex workers.

PubMed

Pascom, Ana Roberta Pati; Szwarcwald, Célia Landmann; Barbosa Júnior, Aristides

2010-01-01

We investigated sampling methods being used to estimate the HIV prevalence rate among female commercial sex workers. The studies were classified according to the adequacy or not of the sample size to estimate HIV prevalence rate and according to the sampling method (probabilistic or convenience). We identified 75 studies that estimated the HIV prevalence rate among female sex workers. Most of the studies employed convenience samples. The sample size was not adequate to estimate HIV prevalence rate in 35 studies. The use of convenience sample limits statistical inference for the whole group. It was observed that there was an increase in the number of published studies since 2005, as well as in the number of studies that used probabilistic samples. This represents a large advance in the monitoring of risk behavior practices and HIV prevalence rate in this group.

The IDF Diabetes Atlas methodology for estimating global prevalence of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy.

PubMed

Linnenkamp, U; Guariguata, L; Beagley, J; Whiting, D R; Cho, N H

2014-02-01

Hyperglycaemia is one of the most prevalent metabolic disorders occurring during pregnancy. Limited data are available on the global prevalence of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy. The International Diabetes Federation (IDF) has developed a methodology for generating estimates of the prevalence of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy, including hyperglycaemia first detected in pregnancy and live births to women with known diabetes, among women of childbearing age (20-49 years). A systematic review of the literature for studies reporting the prevalence of gestational diabetes was conducted. Studies were evaluated and scored to favour those that were representative of a large population, conducted recently, reported age-specific estimates, and case identification was based on blood test. Age-specific prevalence data from studies were entered to produce estimates for five-year age groups using logistic regression to smooth curves, with age as the independent variable. The derived age-specific prevalence was adjusted for differences in diagnostic criteria in the underlying data. Cases of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy were derived from age-specific estimates of fertility and age-specific population estimates. Country-specific estimates were generated for countries with available data. Regional and global estimates were generated based on aggregation and extrapolation for 219 countries and territories. Available fertility rates and diabetes prevalence estimates were used to estimate the proportion of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy that may be due to total diabetes in pregnancy - pregnancy in women with known diabetes and diabetes first detected in pregnancy. The literature review identified 199 studies that were eligible for characterisation and selection. After scoring and exclusion requirements, 46 studies were selected representing 34 countries. More than 50% of selected studies came from Europe and North America and Caribbean. The smallest number of identified studies came from sub

The impact of measurement differences on cross-country depression prevalence estimates: A latent transition analysis.

PubMed

Scorza, Pamela; Masyn, Katherine; Salomon, Joshua A; Betancourt, Theresa S

2018-01-01

Depression is currently the second largest contributor to non-fatal disease burden globally. For that reason, economic evaluations are increasingly being conducted using data from depression prevalence estimates to analyze return on investments for services that target mental health. Psychiatric epidemiology studies have reported large cross-national differences in the prevalence of depression. These differences may impact the cost-effectiveness assessments of mental health interventions, thereby affecting decisions regarding government and multi-lateral investment in mental health services. Some portion of the differences in prevalence estimates across countries may be due to true discrepancies in depression prevalence, resulting from differential levels of risk in environmental and demographic factors. However, some portion of those differences may reflect non-invariance in the way standard tools measure depression across countries. This paper attempts to discern the extent to which measurement differences are responsible for reported differences in the prevalence of depression across countries. This analysis uses data from the World Mental Health Surveys, a coordinated series of psychiatric epidemiology studies in 27 countries using multistage household probability samples to assess prevalence and correlates of mental disorders. Data in the current study include responses to the depression module of the World Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) in four countries: Two high-income, western countries-the United States (n = 20, 015) and New Zealand (n = 12,992)-an upper-middle income sub-Saharan African country, South Africa (n = 4,351), and a lower-middle income sub-Saharan African country, Nigeria (n = 6,752). Latent class analysis, a type of finite mixture modeling, was used to categorize respondents into underlying categories based on the variation in their responses to questions in each of three sequential parts of the CIDI

Estimated prevalence of dengue viremia in Puerto Rican blood donations, 1995 through 2010.

PubMed

Petersen, Lyle R; Tomashek, Kay M; Biggerstaff, Brad J

2012-08-01

Dengue virus (DENV) nucleic acid amplification testing of blood donations during epidemics in endemic locations, including Puerto Rico, has suggested possible sizable transfusion transmission risk. Estimates of the long-term prevalence of DENV viremic donations will help evaluate the potential magnitude of this risk in Puerto Rico. Estimates of the prevalence of DENV viremia in the Puerto Rican population at large from 1995 through 2010 were derived from dengue case reports and their onset dates obtained from islandwide surveillance, estimates of case underreporting, and extant data on the duration of DENV viremia and the unapparent-to-apparent dengue infection ratio. Under the assumptions that viremia prevalence in blood donors was similar to that of the population at large and that symptomatic persons do not donate, statistical resampling methods were used to estimate the prevalence of dengue viremia in blood donations. Over the 16-year period, the maximum and mean daily prevalences of dengue viremia (per 10,000) in blood donations in Puerto Rico were estimated at 45.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 36.5-55.4) and 7.0 (95% CI, 3.9-10.1), respectively. Prevalence varied considerably by season and year. These data suggest a substantial prevalence of DENV viremia in Puerto Rican blood donations, particularly during outbreaks. © 2012 American Association of Blood Banks.

Prevalence of pseudobulbar affect symptoms and clinical correlates in nursing home residents.

PubMed

Foley, Kevin; Konetzka, R Tamara; Bunin, Anthony; Yonan, Charles

2016-07-01

Pseudobulbar affect (PBA) is a neurological disorder of emotional expression, characterized by uncontrollable episodes of crying or laughing in patients with certain neurological disorders affecting the brain. The purposes of this study were to estimate the prevalence of PBA in US nursing home residents and examine the relationship between PBA symptoms and other clinical correlates, including the use of psychopharmacological medications. A retrospective study was conducted between 2013 and 2014 with a convenience sample of residents from nine Michigan nursing homes. Chronic-care residents were included in the "predisposed population" if they had a neurological disorder affecting the brain and no evidence of psychosis, delirium, or disruptive behavior (per chart review). Residents were screened for PBA symptoms by a geropsychologist using the Center for Neurologic Study-Lability Scale (CNS-LS). Additional clinical information was collected using a diagnostic evaluation checklist and the most recent Minimum Data Set 3.0 assessment. Of 811 residents screened, complete data were available for 804, and 412 (51%) met the criteria for the "predisposed population." PBA symptom prevalence, based on having a CNS-LS score ≥13, was 17.5% in the predisposed population and 9.0% among all nursing home residents. Those with PBA symptoms were more likely to have a documented mood disorder and be using a psychopharmacological medication, including antipsychotics, than those without PBA symptoms. Pseudobulbar affect symptoms were present in 17.5% of nursing home residents with neurological conditions, and 9.0% of residents overall. Increasing awareness and improving diagnostic accuracy of PBA may help optimize treatment. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimation of the Prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorder in South Korea, Revisited

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pantelis, Peter C.; Kennedy, Daniel P.

2016-01-01

Two-phase designs in epidemiological studies of autism prevalence introduce methodological complications that can severely limit the precision of resulting estimates. If the assumptions used to derive the prevalence estimate are invalid or if the uncertainty surrounding these assumptions is not properly accounted for in the statistical inference…

Refusal bias in HIV prevalence estimates from nationally representative seroprevalence surveys.

PubMed

Reniers, Georges; Eaton, Jeffrey

2009-03-13

To assess the relationship between prior knowledge of one's HIV status and the likelihood to refuse HIV testing in populations-based surveys and explore its potential for producing bias in HIV prevalence estimates. Using longitudinal survey data from Malawi, we estimate the relationship between prior knowledge of HIV-positive status and subsequent refusal of an HIV test. We use that parameter to develop a heuristic model of refusal bias that is applied to six Demographic and Health Surveys, in which refusal by HIV status is not observed. The model only adjusts for refusal bias conditional on a completed interview. Ecologically, HIV prevalence, prior testing rates and refusal for HIV testing are highly correlated. Malawian data further suggest that amongst individuals who know their status, HIV-positive individuals are 4.62 (95% confidence interval, 2.60-8.21) times more likely to refuse testing than HIV-negative ones. On the basis of that parameter and other inputs from the Demographic and Health Surveys, our model predicts downward bias in national HIV prevalence estimates ranging from 1.5% (95% confidence interval, 0.7-2.9) for Senegal to 13.3% (95% confidence interval, 7.2-19.6) for Malawi. In absolute terms, bias in HIV prevalence estimates is negligible for Senegal but 1.6 (95% confidence interval, 0.8-2.3) percentage points for Malawi. Downward bias is more severe in urban populations. Because refusal rates are higher in men, seroprevalence surveys also tend to overestimate the female-to-male ratio of infections. Prior knowledge of HIV status informs decisions to participate in seroprevalence surveys. Informed refusals may produce bias in estimates of HIV prevalence and the sex ratio of infections.

Estimating time-dependent ROC curves using data under prevalent sampling.

PubMed

Li, Shanshan

2017-04-15

Prevalent sampling is frequently a convenient and economical sampling technique for the collection of time-to-event data and thus is commonly used in studies of the natural history of a disease. However, it is biased by design because it tends to recruit individuals with longer survival times. This paper considers estimation of time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves when data are collected under prevalent sampling. To correct the sampling bias, we develop both nonparametric and semiparametric estimators using extended risk sets and the inverse probability weighting techniques. The proposed estimators are consistent and converge to Gaussian processes, while substantial bias may arise if standard estimators for right-censored data are used. To illustrate our method, we analyze data from an ovarian cancer study and estimate receiver operating characteristic curves that assess the accuracy of the composite markers in distinguishing subjects who died within 3-5 years from subjects who remained alive. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The effect of osteoarthritis definition on prevalence and incidence estimates: a systematic review.

PubMed

Pereira, D; Peleteiro, B; Araújo, J; Branco, J; Santos, R A; Ramos, E

2011-11-01

To understand the differences in prevalence and incidence estimates of osteoarthritis (OA), according to case definition, in knee, hip and hand joints. A systematic review was carried out in PUBMED and SCOPUS databases comprising the date of publication period from January 1995 to February 2011. We attempted to summarise data on the incidence and prevalence of OA according to different methods of assessment: self-reported, radiographic and symptomatic OA (clinical plus radiographic). Prevalence estimates were combined through meta-analysis and between-study heterogeneity was quantified. Seventy-two papers were reviewed (nine on incidence and 63 on prevalence). Higher OA prevalences are seen when radiographic OA definition was used for all age groups. Prevalence meta-analysis showed high heterogeneity between studies even in each specific joint and using the same OA definition. Although the knee is the most studied joint, the highest OA prevalence estimates were found in hand joints. OA of the knee tends to be more prevalent in women than in men independently of the OA definition used, but no gender differences were found in hip and hand OA. Insufficient data for incidence studies didn't allow us to make any comparison according to joint site or OA definition. Radiographic case definition of OA presented the highest prevalences. Within each joint site, self-reported and symptomatic OA definitions appear to present similar estimates. The high heterogeneity found in the studies limited further conclusions. Copyright © 2011 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating the Prevalence of Childhood Obesity in Alaska Using Partial, Nonrandom Measurement Data

PubMed Central

Boles, Myde; Fink, Karol; Topol, Rebecca; Fenaughty, Andrea

2016-01-01

Although monitoring childhood obesity prevalence is critical for state public health programs to assess trends and the effectiveness of interventions, few states have comprehensive body mass index measurement systems in place. In some states, however, assorted school districts collect measurements on student height and weight as part of annual health screenings. To estimate childhood obesity prevalence in Alaska, we created a logistic regression model using such annual measurements along with public data on demographics and socioeconomic status. Our mixed-effects model-generated prevalence estimates validated well against weighted estimates, with 95% confidence intervals overlapping between methodologies among 7 of 8 participating school districts. Our methodology accounts for variation in school-level and student-level demographic factors across the state, and the approach we describe can be applied by other states that have existing nonrandom student measurement data to estimate childhood obesity prevalence. PMID:27010843

Prevalence of pseudobulbar affect symptoms and clinical correlates in nursing home residents

PubMed Central

Konetzka, R. Tamara; Bunin, Anthony; Yonan, Charles

2015-01-01

Objective Pseudobulbar affect (PBA) is a neurological disorder of emotional expression, characterized by uncontrollable episodes of crying or laughing in patients with certain neurological disorders affecting the brain. The purposes of this study were to estimate the prevalence of PBA in US nursing home residents and examine the relationship between PBA symptoms and other clinical correlates, including the use of psychopharmacological medications. Methods A retrospective study was conducted between 2013 and 2014 with a convenience sample of residents from nine Michigan nursing homes. Chronic‐care residents were included in the “predisposed population” if they had a neurological disorder affecting the brain and no evidence of psychosis, delirium, or disruptive behavior (per chart review). Residents were screened for PBA symptoms by a geropsychologist using the Center for Neurologic Study‐Lability Scale (CNS‐LS). Additional clinical information was collected using a diagnostic evaluation checklist and the most recent Minimum Data Set 3.0 assessment. Results Of 811 residents screened, complete data were available for 804, and 412 (51%) met the criteria for the “predisposed population.” PBA symptom prevalence, based on having a CNS‐LS score ≥13, was 17.5% in the predisposed population and 9.0% among all nursing home residents. Those with PBA symptoms were more likely to have a documented mood disorder and be using a psychopharmacological medication, including antipsychotics, than those without PBA symptoms. Conclusions Pseudobulbar affect symptoms were present in 17.5% of nursing home residents with neurological conditions, and 9.0% of residents overall. Increasing awareness and improving diagnostic accuracy of PBA may help optimize treatment. © 2015 The Authors. International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:26526856

Gender-specific estimates of COPD prevalence: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ntritsos, Georgios; Franek, Jacob; Belbasis, Lazaros; Christou, Maria A; Markozannes, Georgios; Altman, Pablo; Fogel, Robert; Sayre, Tobias; Ntzani, Evangelia E; Evangelou, Evangelos

2018-01-01

COPD has been perceived as being a disease of older men. However, >7 million women are estimated to live with COPD in the USA alone. Despite a growing body of literature suggesting an increasing burden of COPD in women, the evidence is limited. To assess and synthesize the available evidence among population-based epidemiologic studies and calculate the global prevalence of COPD in men and women. A systematic review and meta-analysis reporting gender-specific prevalence of COPD was undertaken. Gender-specific prevalence estimates were abstracted from relevant studies. Associated patient characteristics as well as custom variables pertaining to the diagnostic method and other important epidemiologic covariates were also collected. A Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis was performed investigating gender-specific prevalence of COPD stratified by age, geography, calendar time, study setting, diagnostic method, and disease severity. Among 194 eligible studies, summary prevalence was 9.23% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 8.16%-10.36%) in men and 6.16% (95% CrI: 5.41%-6.95%) in women. Gender prevalences varied widely by the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease subregions, with the highest female prevalence found in North America (8.07% vs 7.30%) and in participants in urban settings (13.03% vs 8.34%). Meta-regression indicated that age ≥40 and bronchodilator testing contributed most significantly to heterogeneity of prevalence estimates across studies. We conducted the largest ever systematic review and meta-analysis of global prevalence of COPD and the first large gender-specific review. These results will increase awareness of COPD as a critical woman's health issue.

Sex- and Age-Adjusted Population Analysis of Prevalence Estimates for Hidradenitis Suppurativa in the United States.

PubMed

Garg, Amit; Kirby, Joslyn S; Lavian, Jonathan; Lin, Gloria; Strunk, Andrew

2017-08-01

The true prevalence of hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) is unknown. To establish standardized overall and group-specific prevalence estimates for HS in the United States. This retrospective analysis included a demographically heterogeneous population-based sample of more than 48 million unique patients across all US census regions. As of October 27, 2016, a total of 47 690 patients with HS were identified using electronic health record data. Standardized overall point prevalence for HS and sex-, age-, and race-specific prevalence estimates of HS in the general US population. Of the 47 690 patients with HS (26.2% men and 73.8% women), the overall HS prevalence in the US population sample was 0.10%, or 98 per 100 000 persons (95% CI, 97-99 per 100 000 persons). The adjusted prevalence in women was 137 per 100 000 (95% CI, 136-139 per 100 000), more than twice that of men (58 per 100 000; 95% CI, 57-59 per 100 000; P < .001). The prevalence of HS was highest among patients aged 30 to 39 years (172 per 100 000; 95% CI, 169-275 per 100 000) compared with all other age groups (range, 15-150 per 100 000; P < .001). Adjusted HS prevalences among African American (296 per 100 000; 95% CI, 291-300 per 100 000) and biracial (218 per 100 000; 95% CI, 202-235 per 100 000) patients were more than 3-fold and 2-fold greater, respectively, than that among white patients (95 per 100 000; 95% CI, 94-96 per 100 000; P < .001). Hidradenitis suppurativa is an uncommon, but not rare, disease in the United States that disproportionately affects female patients, young adults, and African American and biracial patients.

Prevalence of hospitalized live births affected by alcohol and drugs and parturient women diagnosed with substance abuse at liveborn delivery: United States, 1999-2008.

PubMed

Pan, I-Jen; Yi, Hsiao-ye

2013-05-01

To describe prevalence trends in hospitalized live births affected by placental transmission of alcohol and drugs, as well as prevalence trends among parturient women hospitalized for liveborn delivery and diagnosed with substance abuse problems in the United States from 1999 to 2008. Comparison of the two sets of trends helps determine whether the observed changes in neonatal problems over time were caused by shifts in maternal substance abuse problems. This study independently identified hospitalized live births and maternal live born deliveries from discharge records in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, one of the largest hospital administrative databases. Substance-related diagnosis codes on the records were used to identify live births affected by alcohol and drugs and parturient women with substance abuse problems. The analysis calculated prevalence differences and percentage changes over the 10 years, with Loess curves fitted to 10-year prevalence estimates to depict trend patterns. Linear and quadratic trends in prevalence were simultaneously tested using logistic regression analyses. The study also examined data on costs, primary expected payer, and length of hospital stays. From 1999 to 2008, prevalence increased for narcotic- and hallucinogen-affected live births and neonatal drug withdrawal syndrome but decreased for alcohol- and cocaine-affected live births. Maternal substance abuse at delivery showed similar trends, but prevalence of alcohol abuse remained relatively stable. Substance-affected live births required longer hospital stays and higher medical expenses, mostly billable to Medicaid. The findings highlight the urgent need for behavioral intervention and early treatment for substance-abusing pregnant women to reduce the number of substance-affected live births.

Comfort in big numbers: Does over-estimation of doping prevalence in others indicate self-involvement?

PubMed Central

Petróczi, Andrea; Mazanov, Jason; Nepusz, Tamás; Backhouse, Susan H; Naughton, Declan P

2008-01-01

Background The 'False Consensus Effect' (FCE), by which people perceive their own actions as relatively common behaviour, might be exploited to gauge whether a person engages in controversial behaviour, such as performance enhancing drug (PED) use. Hypothesis It is assumed that people's own behaviour, owing to the FCE, affects their estimation of the prevalence of that behaviour. It is further hypothesised that a person's estimate of PED population use is a reliable indicator of the doping behaviour of that person, in lieu of self-reports. Testing the hypothesis Over- or underestimation is calculated from investigating known groups (i.e. users vs. non-users), using a short questionnaire, and a known prevalence rate from official reports or sample evidence. It is proposed that sample evidence from self-reported behaviour should be verified using objective biochemical analyses. In order to find proofs of concept for the existence of false consensus, a pilot study was conducted. Data were collected among competitive UK student-athletes (n = 124) using a web-based anonymous questionnaire. User (n = 9) vs. non-user (n = 76) groups were established using self-reported information on doping use and intention to use PEDs in hypothetical situations. Observed differences in the mean estimation of doping made by the user group exceeded the estimation made by the non-user group (35.11% vs. 15.34% for general doping and 34.25% vs. 26.30% in hypothetical situations, respectively), thus providing preliminary evidence in support of the FCE concept in relation to doping. Implications of the hypothesis The presence of the FCE in estimating doping prevalence or behaviour in others suggests that the FCE based approach may be an avenue for developing an indirect self-report mechanism for PED use behaviour. The method may be successfully adapted to the estimation of prevalence of behaviours where direct self-reports are assumed to be distorted by socially desirable responding. Thus this

Estimating the geographical distribution of the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in young Mexicans.

PubMed

Murguía-Romero, Miguel; Jiménez-Flores, Rafael; Villalobos-Molina, Rafael; Méndez-Cruz, Adolfo René

2012-09-01

The geographical distribution of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) prevalence in young Mexicans (aged 17-24 years) was estimated stepwise starting from its prevalence based on the body mass index (BMI) in a study of 3,176 undergraduate students of this age group from Mexico City. To estimate the number of people with MetS by state, we multiplied its prevalence derived from the BMI range found in the Mexico City sample by the BMI proportions (range and state) obtained from the Mexico 2006 national survey on health and nutrition. Finally, to estimate the total number of young people with MetS in Mexico, its prevalence by state was multiplied by the share of young population in each state according to the National Population and Housing Census 2010. Based on these figures, we estimated the national prevalence of MetS at 15.8%, the average BMI at 24.1 (standard deviation = 4.2), and the prevalence of overweight people (BMI ≥25) of that age group at 39.0%. These results imply that 2,588,414 young Mexicans suffered from MetS in 2010. The Yucatan peninsula in the south and the Sonora state in the north showed the highest rates of MetS prevalence. The calculation of the MetS prevalence by BMI range in a sample of the population, and extrapolating it using the BMI proportions by range of the total population, was found to be a useful approach. We conclude that the BMI is a valuable public health tool to estimate MetS prevalence in the whole country, including its geographical distribution.

Estimates of global prevalence of childhood underweight in 1990 and 2015.

PubMed

de Onis, Mercedes; Blössner, Monika; Borghi, Elaine; Frongillo, Edward A; Morris, Richard

2004-06-02

One key target of the United Nations Millennium Development goals is to reduce the prevalence of underweight among children younger than 5 years by half between 1990 and 2015. To estimate trends in childhood underweight by geographic regions of the world. Time series study of prevalence of underweight, defined as weight 2 SDs below the mean weight for age of the National Center for Health Statistics and World Health Organization (WHO) reference population. National prevalence rates derived from the WHO Global Database on Child Growth and Malnutrition, which includes data on approximately 31 million children younger than 5 years who participated in 419 national nutritional surveys in 139 countries from 1965 through 2002. Linear mixed-effects modeling was used to estimate prevalence rates and numbers of underweight children by region in 1990 and 2015 and to calculate the changes (ie, increase or decrease) to these values between 1990 and 2015. Worldwide, underweight prevalence was projected to decline from 26.5% in 1990 to 17.6% in 2015, a change of -34% (95% confidence interval [CI], -43% to -23%). In developed countries, the prevalence was estimated to decrease from 1.6% to 0.9%, a change of -41% (95% CI, -92% to 343%). In developing regions, the prevalence was forecasted to decline from 30.2% to 19.3%, a change of -36% (95% CI, -45% to -26%). In Africa, the prevalence of underweight was forecasted to increase from 24.0% to 26.8%, a change of 12% (95% CI, 8%-16%). In Asia, the prevalence was estimated to decrease from 35.1% to 18.5%, a change of -47% (95% CI, -58% to -34%). Worldwide, the number of underweight children was projected to decline from 163.8 million in 1990 to 113.4 million in 2015, a change of -31% (95% CI, -40% to -20%). Numbers are projected to decrease in all subregions except the subregions of sub-Saharan, Eastern, Middle, and Western Africa, which are expected to experience substantial increases in the number of underweight children. An overall

Spatially Interpolated Disease Prevalence Estimation Using Collateral Indicators of Morbidity and Ecological Risk

PubMed Central

Congdon, Peter

2013-01-01

This paper considers estimation of disease prevalence for small areas (neighbourhoods) when the available observations on prevalence are for an alternative partition of a region, such as service areas. Interpolation to neighbourhoods uses a kernel method extended to take account of two types of collateral information. The first is morbidity and service use data, such as hospital admissions, observed for neighbourhoods. Variations in morbidity and service use are expected to reflect prevalence. The second type of collateral information is ecological risk factors (e.g., pollution indices) that are expected to explain variability in prevalence in service areas, but are typically observed only for neighbourhoods. An application involves estimating neighbourhood asthma prevalence in a London health region involving 562 neighbourhoods and 189 service (primary care) areas. PMID:24129116

Spatially interpolated disease prevalence estimation using collateral indicators of morbidity and ecological risk.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2013-10-14

This paper considers estimation of disease prevalence for small areas (neighbourhoods) when the available observations on prevalence are for an alternative partition of a region, such as service areas. Interpolation to neighbourhoods uses a kernel method extended to take account of two types of collateral information. The first is morbidity and service use data, such as hospital admissions, observed for neighbourhoods. Variations in morbidity and service use are expected to reflect prevalence. The second type of collateral information is ecological risk factors (e.g., pollution indices) that are expected to explain variability in prevalence in service areas, but are typically observed only for neighbourhoods. An application involves estimating neighbourhood asthma prevalence in a London health region involving 562 neighbourhoods and 189 service (primary care) areas.

Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013

PubMed Central

Brown, Tim; Bao, Le; Eaton, Jeffrey W.; Hogan, Daniel R.; Mahy, Mary; Marsh, Kimberly; Mathers, Bradley M.; Puckett, Robert

2014-01-01

Objective: Describe modifications to the latest version of the Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS) Estimation and Projection Package component of Spectrum (EPP 2013) to improve prevalence fitting and incidence trend estimation in national epidemics and global estimates of HIV burden. Methods: Key changes made under the guidance of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections include: availability of a range of incidence calculation models and guidance for selecting a model; a shift to reporting the Bayesian median instead of the maximum likelihood estimate; procedures for comparison and validation against reported HIV and AIDS data; incorporation of national surveys as an integral part of the fitting and calibration procedure, allowing survey trends to inform the fit; improved antenatal clinic calibration procedures in countries without surveys; adjustment of national antiretroviral therapy reports used in the fitting to include only those aged 15–49 years; better estimates of mortality among people who inject drugs; and enhancements to speed fitting. Results: The revised models in EPP 2013 allow closer fits to observed prevalence trend data and reflect improving understanding of HIV epidemics and associated data. Conclusion: Spectrum and EPP continue to adapt to make better use of the existing data sources, incorporate new sources of information in their fitting and validation procedures, and correct for quantifiable biases in inputs as they are identified and understood. These adaptations provide countries with better calibrated estimates of incidence and prevalence, which increase epidemic understanding and provide a solid base for program and policy planning. PMID:25406747

Estimating Contraceptive Prevalence Using Logistics Data for Short-Acting Methods: Analysis Across 30 Countries.

PubMed

Cunningham, Marc; Bock, Ariella; Brown, Niquelle; Sacher, Suzy; Hatch, Benjamin; Inglis, Andrew; Aronovich, Dana

2015-09-01

Contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) is a vital indicator used by country governments, international donors, and other stakeholders for measuring progress in family planning programs against country targets and global initiatives as well as for estimating health outcomes. Because of the need for more frequent CPR estimates than population-based surveys currently provide, alternative approaches for estimating CPRs are being explored, including using contraceptive logistics data. Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in 30 countries, population data from the United States Census Bureau International Database, and logistics data from the Procurement Planning and Monitoring Report (PPMR) and the Pipeline Monitoring and Procurement Planning System (PipeLine), we developed and evaluated 3 models to generate country-level, public-sector contraceptive prevalence estimates for injectable contraceptives, oral contraceptives, and male condoms. Models included: direct estimation through existing couple-years of protection (CYP) conversion factors, bivariate linear regression, and multivariate linear regression. Model evaluation consisted of comparing the referent DHS prevalence rates for each short-acting method with the model-generated prevalence rate using multiple metrics, including mean absolute error and proportion of countries where the modeled prevalence rate for each method was within 1, 2, or 5 percentage points of the DHS referent value. For the methods studied, family planning use estimates from public-sector logistics data were correlated with those from the DHS, validating the quality and accuracy of current public-sector logistics data. Logistics data for oral and injectable contraceptives were significantly associated (P<.05) with the referent DHS values for both bivariate and multivariate models. For condoms, however, that association was only significant for the bivariate model. With the exception of the CYP-based model for condoms, models

Estimating Contraceptive Prevalence Using Logistics Data for Short-Acting Methods: Analysis Across 30 Countries

PubMed Central

Cunningham, Marc; Brown, Niquelle; Sacher, Suzy; Hatch, Benjamin; Inglis, Andrew; Aronovich, Dana

2015-01-01

Background: Contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) is a vital indicator used by country governments, international donors, and other stakeholders for measuring progress in family planning programs against country targets and global initiatives as well as for estimating health outcomes. Because of the need for more frequent CPR estimates than population-based surveys currently provide, alternative approaches for estimating CPRs are being explored, including using contraceptive logistics data. Methods: Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in 30 countries, population data from the United States Census Bureau International Database, and logistics data from the Procurement Planning and Monitoring Report (PPMR) and the Pipeline Monitoring and Procurement Planning System (PipeLine), we developed and evaluated 3 models to generate country-level, public-sector contraceptive prevalence estimates for injectable contraceptives, oral contraceptives, and male condoms. Models included: direct estimation through existing couple-years of protection (CYP) conversion factors, bivariate linear regression, and multivariate linear regression. Model evaluation consisted of comparing the referent DHS prevalence rates for each short-acting method with the model-generated prevalence rate using multiple metrics, including mean absolute error and proportion of countries where the modeled prevalence rate for each method was within 1, 2, or 5 percentage points of the DHS referent value. Results: For the methods studied, family planning use estimates from public-sector logistics data were correlated with those from the DHS, validating the quality and accuracy of current public-sector logistics data. Logistics data for oral and injectable contraceptives were significantly associated (P<.05) with the referent DHS values for both bivariate and multivariate models. For condoms, however, that association was only significant for the bivariate model. With the exception of the CYP

Prevalence estimates for primary brain tumors in the United States by age, gender, behavior, and histology.

PubMed

Porter, Kimberly R; McCarthy, Bridget J; Freels, Sally; Kim, Yoonsang; Davis, Faith G

2010-06-01

Prevalence is the best indicator of cancer survivorship in the population, but few studies have focused on brain tumor prevalence because of previous data limitations. Hence, the full impact of primary brain tumors on the healthcare system in the United States is not completely described. The present study provides an estimate of the prevalence of disease in the United States, updating an earlier prevalence study. Incidence data for 2004 and survival data for 1985-2005 were obtained by the Central Brain Tumor Registry of the United States from selected regions, modeled under 2 different survival assumptions, to estimate prevalence rates for the year 2004 and projected estimates for 2010. The overall incidence rate for primary brain tumors was 18.1 per 100 000 person-years with 2-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year observed survival rates of 62%, 54%, 45%, and 30%, respectively. On the basis of the sum of nonmalignant and averaged malignant estimates, the overall prevalence rate of individuals with a brain tumor was estimated to be 209.0 per 100 000 in 2004 and 221.8 per 100 000 in 2010. The female prevalence rate (264.8 per 100 000) was higher than that in males (158.7 per 100 000). The averaged prevalence rate for malignant tumors (42.5 per 100 000) was lower than the prevalence for nonmalignant tumors (166.5 per 100 000). This study provides estimates of the 2004 (n = 612 770) and 2010 (n = 688 096) expected number of individuals living with primary brain tumor diagnoses in the United States, providing more current and robust estimates for aiding healthcare planning and patient advocacy for an aging US population.

Republic of Georgia estimates for prevalence of drug use: Randomized response techniques suggest under-estimation.

PubMed

Kirtadze, Irma; Otiashvili, David; Tabatadze, Mzia; Vardanashvili, Irina; Sturua, Lela; Zabransky, Tomas; Anthony, James C

2018-06-01

Validity of responses in surveys is an important research concern, especially in emerging market economies where surveys in the general population are a novelty, and the level of social control is traditionally higher. The Randomized Response Technique (RRT) can be used as a check on response validity when the study aim is to estimate population prevalence of drug experiences and other socially sensitive and/or illegal behaviors. To apply RRT and to study potential under-reporting of drug use in a nation-scale, population-based general population survey of alcohol and other drug use. For this first-ever household survey on addictive substances for the Country of Georgia, we used the multi-stage probability sampling of 18-to-64-year-old household residents of 111 urban and 49 rural areas. During the interviewer-administered assessments, RRT involved pairing of sensitive and non-sensitive questions about drug experiences. Based upon the standard household self-report survey estimate, an estimated 17.3% [95% confidence interval, CI: 15.5%, 19.1%] of Georgian household residents have tried cannabis. The corresponding RRT estimate was 29.9% [95% CI: 24.9%, 34.9%]. The RRT estimates for other drugs such as heroin also were larger than the standard self-report estimates. We remain unsure about what is the "true" value for prevalence of using illegal psychotropic drugs in the Republic of Georgia study population. Our RRT results suggest that standard non-RRT approaches might produce 'under-estimates' or at best, highly conservative, lower-end estimates. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of Hospitalized Live Births Affected by Alcohol and Drugs and Parturient Women Diagnosed with Substance Abuse at Liveborn Delivery: United States, 1999–2008

PubMed Central

Pan, I-Jen; Yi, Hsiao-ye

2015-01-01

Objective To describe prevalence trends in hospitalized live births affected by placental transmission of alcohol and drugs, as well as prevalence trends among parturient women hospitalized for liveborn delivery and diagnosed with substance abuse problems in the United States from 1999 to 2008. Comparison of the two sets of trends helps determine whether the observed changes in neonatal problems over time were caused by shifts in maternal substance abuse problems. Methods This study independently identified hospitalized live births and maternal live born deliveries from discharge records in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, one of the largest hospital administrative databases. Substance-related diagnosis codes on the records were used to identify live births affected by alcohol and drugs and parturient women with substance abuse problems. The analysis calculated prevalence differences and percentage changes over the 10 years, with Loess curves fitted to 10-year prevalence estimates to depict trend patterns. Linear and quadratic trends in prevalence were simultaneously tested using logistic regression analyses. The study also examined data on costs, primary expected payer, and length of hospital stays. Results From 1999 to 2008, prevalence increased for narcotic- and hallucinogen-affected live births and neonatal drug withdrawal syndrome but decreased for alcohol- and cocaine-affected live births. Maternal substance abuse at delivery showed similar trends, but prevalence of alcohol abuse remained relatively stable. Substance-affected live births required longer hospital stays and higher medical expenses, mostly billable to Medicaid. Conclusions The findings highlight the urgent need for behavioral intervention and early treatment for substance-abusing pregnant women to reduce the number of substance-affected live births. PMID:22688539

Overview of Celiac Disease in Russia: Regional Data and Estimated Prevalence

PubMed Central

Erdes, Svetlana I.; Antishin, Anton S.

2017-01-01

Celiac disease (CD) is an autoimmune enteropathy triggered by the ingestion of dietary gluten from some cereals mainly in individuals carrying the HLA-DQ2 and/or HLA-DQ8 haplotypes. As an autoimmune disease, CD is manifested in the small intestine in the form of a progressive and reversible inflammatory lesion due to immune response to self-antigens. Indeed, CD is one of the most challenging medicosocial problems in current gastroenterology. At present, the global CD prevalence is estimated at approximately 1% based on data sent from different locations and available CD screening strategies used. However, it is impossible to estimate global CD prevalence without all the data from the world, including Russia. In this review, we summarize the data on the incidence and prevalence of CD across geographically distinct regions of Russia, which are mostly present in local Russian scientific sources. Our conclusion is that the situation of CD prevalence in Russia is higher than is commonly believed and follows global tendencies that correspond to the epidemiologic situation in Europe, America, and Southwest Asia. PMID:28316996

Overview of Celiac Disease in Russia: Regional Data and Estimated Prevalence.

PubMed

Savvateeva, Lyudmila V; Erdes, Svetlana I; Antishin, Anton S; Zamyatnin, Andrey A

2017-01-01

Celiac disease (CD) is an autoimmune enteropathy triggered by the ingestion of dietary gluten from some cereals mainly in individuals carrying the HLA-DQ2 and/or HLA-DQ8 haplotypes. As an autoimmune disease, CD is manifested in the small intestine in the form of a progressive and reversible inflammatory lesion due to immune response to self-antigens. Indeed, CD is one of the most challenging medicosocial problems in current gastroenterology. At present, the global CD prevalence is estimated at approximately 1% based on data sent from different locations and available CD screening strategies used. However, it is impossible to estimate global CD prevalence without all the data from the world, including Russia. In this review, we summarize the data on the incidence and prevalence of CD across geographically distinct regions of Russia, which are mostly present in local Russian scientific sources. Our conclusion is that the situation of CD prevalence in Russia is higher than is commonly believed and follows global tendencies that correspond to the epidemiologic situation in Europe, America, and Southwest Asia.

Accounting for multimorbidity can affect the estimation of the Burden of Disease: a comparison of approaches.

PubMed

Hilderink, Henk B M; Plasmans, Marjanne H D; Snijders, Bianca E P; Boshuizen, Hendriek C; Poos, M J J C René; van Gool, Coen H

2016-01-01

Various Burden of Disease (BoD) studies do not account for multimorbidity in their BoD estimates. Ignoring multimorbidity can lead to inaccuracies in BoD estimations, particularly in ageing populations that include large proportions of persons with two or more health conditions. The objective of this study is to improve BoD estimates for the Netherlands by accounting for multimorbidity. For this purpose, we analyzed different methods for 1) estimating the prevalence of multimorbidity and 2) deriving Disability Weights (DWs) for multimorbidity by using existing data on single health conditions. We included 25 health conditions from the Dutch Burden of Disease study that have a high rate of prevalence and that make a large contribution to the total number of Years Lived with a Disability (YLD). First, we analyzed four methods for estimating the prevalence of multimorbid conditions (i.e. independent, independent age- and sex-specific, dependent, and dependent sex- and age-specific). Secondly, we analyzed three methods for calculating the Combined Disability Weights (CDWs) associated with multimorbid conditions (i.e. additive, multiplicative and maximum limit). A combination of these two approaches was used to recalculate the number of YLDs, which is a component of the Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY). This study shows that the YLD estimates for 25 health conditions calculated using the multiplicative method for Combined Disability Weights are 5 % lower, and 14 % lower when using the maximum limit method, than when calculated using the additive method. Adjusting for sex- and age-specific dependent co-occurrence of health conditions reduces the number of YLDs by 10 % for the multiplicative method and by 26 % for the maximum limit method. The adjustment is higher for health conditions with a higher prevalence in old age, like heart failure (up to 43 %) and coronary heart diseases (up to 33 %). Health conditions with a high prevalence in middle age, such as

Evidence base for children affected by HIV and AIDS in low prevalence and concentrated epidemic countries: applicability to programming guidance from high prevalence countries.

PubMed

Franco, Lynne Miller; Burkhalter, Bart; de Wagt, Arjan; Jennings, Larissa; Kelley, Allison Gamble; Hammink, Marie-Eve

2009-01-01

As global commitment grows to protect and support children affected by HIV and AIDS, questions remain about how best to meet the needs of these children in low prevalence settings and whether information from high prevalence countries can appropriately guide programming in these settings. A 2007 search for the evidence in low prevalence settings on situational challenges of HIV and AIDS-affected children and interventions to address these challenges identified 413 documents. They were reviewed and judged for quality of documentation and scientific rigor. Information was compiled across eight types of challenges (health and health care, nutrition and food security, education, protection, placement, psychosocial development, socioeconomic status, and stigma/discrimination); and also assessed was strength of evidence for situational and intervention findings. Results were compared to three programming principles drawn from research in high prevalence countries: family-centered preventive efforts, treatment, and care; family-focused support to ensure capacity to care for and protect these children; and sustaining economic livelihood of HIV and AIDS-affected households. Findings show that children affected by HIV and AIDS in low prevalence settings face increased vulnerabilities similar to those in high prevalence settings. These findings support seeking and testing programmatic directions for interventions identified in high prevalence settings. However, low prevalence settings/countries are extremely diverse, and the strength of the evidence base among them was mixed (strong, moderate, and weak in study design and documentation), geographically limited, and had insufficient evidence on interventions to draw conclusions about how best to reduce additional vulnerabilities of affected children. Information on family, economic, sociocultural, and political factors within local contexts will be vital in the development of appropriate strategies to mitigate vulnerabilities.

Toxocara infection in the United States: the relevance of poverty, geography and demography as risk factors, and implications for estimating county prevalence.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter; Lloyd, Patsy

2011-02-01

To estimate Toxocara infection rates by age, gender and ethnicity for US counties using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). After initial analysis to account for missing data, a binary regression model is applied to obtain relative risks of Toxocara infection for 20,396 survey subjects. The regression incorporates interplay between demographic attributes (age, ethnicity and gender), family poverty and geographic context (region, metropolitan status). Prevalence estimates for counties are then made, distinguishing between subpopulations in poverty and not in poverty. Even after allowing for elevated infection risk associated with poverty, seropositivity is elevated among Black non-Hispanics and other ethnic groups. There are also distinct effects of region. When regression results are translated into county prevalence estimates, the main influences on variation in county rates are percentages of non-Hispanic Blacks and county poverty. For targeting prevention it is important to assess implications of national survey data for small area prevalence. Using data from NHANES, the study confirms that both individual level risk factors and geographic contextual factors affect chances of Toxocara infection.

Estimating population prevalence of psychiatric conditions by small area with applications to analysing outcome and referral variations.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2006-12-01

This paper considers the development of estimates of mental illness prevalence for small areas and applications in explaining psychiatric outcomes and in assessing service provision. Estimates of prevalence are based on a logistic regression analysis of two national studies that provides model based estimates of relative morbidity risk by demographic, socio-economic and ethnic group for major psychiatric conditions; household/marital and area status also figure in the regression. Relative risk estimates are used, along with suitably disaggregated census populations, to make prevalence estimates for 354 English local authorities (LAs). Two applications are considered: the first involves analysis of variations in schizophrenia referrals and suicide mortality over English LAs that takes account of prevalence differences, and the second involves assessing hospital referral and bed use in relation to prevalence (for ages 16-74) for a case study area, Waltham Forest in NE London.

Satellite-based Estimates of Ambient Air Pollution and Global Variations in Childhood Asthma Prevalence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, H. Ross; Butland, Barbara K.; Donkelaar, Aaron Matthew Van; Brauer, Michael; Strachan, David P.; Clayton, Tadd; van Dingenen, Rita; Amann, Marcus; Brunekreef, Bert; Cohen, Aaron;

Inter-informant agreement and prevalence estimates for mood syndromes: direct interview vs. family history method.

PubMed

Vandeleur, C L; Rothen, S; Lustenberger, Y; Glaus, J; Castelao, E; Preisig, M

2015-01-15

The use of the family history method is recommended in family studies as a type of proxy interview of non-participating relatives. However, using different sources of information can result in bias as direct interviews may provide a higher likelihood of assigning diagnoses than family history reports. The aims of the present study were to: (1) compare diagnoses for threshold and subthreshold mood syndromes from interviews to those relying on information from relatives; (2) test the appropriateness of lowering the diagnostic threshold and combining multiple reports from the family history method to obtain comparable prevalence estimates to the interviews; (3) identify factors that influence the likelihood of agreement and reporting of disorders by informants. Within a family study, 1621 informant-index subject pairs were identified. DSM-5 diagnoses from direct interviews of index subjects were compared to those derived from family history information provided by their first-degree relatives. (1) Inter-informant agreement was acceptable for Mania, but low for all other mood syndromes. (2) Except for Mania and subthreshold depression, the family history method provided significantly lower prevalence estimates. The gap improved for all other syndromes after lowering the threshold of the family history method. (3) Individuals who had a history of depression themselves were more likely to report depression in their relatives. Low proportion of affected individuals for manic syndromes and lack of independence of data. The higher likelihood of reporting disorders by affected informants entails the risk of overestimation of the size of familial aggregation of depression. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Problem of Rarity: Estimation of Prevalence in Rare Disease.

PubMed

Auvin, Stéphane; Irwin, John; Abi-Aad, Paul; Battersby, Alysia

2018-05-01

From a disease's first description to its wider recognition, factors such as changes over time in diagnostic criteria, available therapies, and subsequent mortality rates may influence diagnosed prevalence of rare diseases. To propose a novel methodology for estimating the true prevalence of rare diseases using current incidence adjusted to changing diagnostic practice over time. This article focuses on rare diseases whose diagnosis may have changed over time, and raises the hypothesis that prevalence calculated from current incidence may be higher than diagnosed prevalence, which may lag behind the current disease definition and diagnostic methods. A rare epileptic encephalopathy, Dravet syndrome (DS), is explored as an illustrative example. A targeted literature review was performed for DS to identify all reported incidence, prevalence, and mortality and depict how diagnostic practice has evolved over time. A conceptual model was developed to calculate prevalence derived from current incidence figures alone (incidence-derived prevalence) or incidence adjusted with factors that cause a diagnostic drag (diagnostic awareness-adjusted prevalence). We identified sufficient publications of incidence and prevalence to test the conceptual model. For pediatric patients with DS, diagnosed prevalence in the field (as reported in current literature) matches incidence-derived prevalence, whereas for adult patients, it is overestimated by incidence-derived prevalence, but not by diagnostic awareness-adjusted prevalence. Care should be taken with current incidence-derived prevalence figures to not overstate the prevalence in rare diseases, as methodological challenges in counting small populations, coupled with advances in rare disease discovery, may cause discrepancies. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Estimation of Fish Disease Prevalence from Pooled Samples Incorporating Sensitivity and Specificity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Christopher J.; Moffitt, Christine M.

2003-03-01

An important emerging issue in fisheries biology is the health of free-ranging populations of fish, particularly with respect to the prevalence of certain pathogens. For many years, pathologists focused on captive populations and interest was in the presence or absence of certain pathogens, so it was economically attractive to test pooled samples of fish. Recently, investigators have begun to study individual fish prevalence from pooled samples. Estimation of disease prevalence from pooled samples is straightforward when assay sensitivity and specificity are perfect, but this assumption is unrealistic. Here we illustrate the use of a Bayesian approach for estimating disease prevalence from pooled samples when sensitivity and specificity are not perfect. We also focus on diagnostic plots to monitor the convergence of the Gibbs-sampling-based Bayesian analysis. The methods are illustrated with a sample data set.

Can administrative health utilisation data provide an accurate diabetes prevalence estimate for a geographical region?

PubMed

Chan, Wing Cheuk; Papaconstantinou, Dean; Lee, Mildred; Telfer, Kendra; Jo, Emmanuel; Drury, Paul L; Tobias, Martin

2018-05-01

To validate the New Zealand Ministry of Health (MoH) Virtual Diabetes Register (VDR) using longitudinal laboratory results and to develop an improved algorithm for estimating diabetes prevalence at a population level. The assigned diabetes status of individuals based on the 2014 version of the MoH VDR is compared to the diabetes status based on the laboratory results stored in the Auckland regional laboratory result repository (TestSafe) using the New Zealand diabetes diagnostic criteria. The existing VDR algorithm is refined by reviewing the sensitivity and positive predictive value of the each of the VDR algorithm rules individually and as a combination. The diabetes prevalence estimate based on the original 2014 MoH VDR was 17% higher (n = 108,505) than the corresponding TestSafe prevalence estimate (n = 92,707). Compared to the diabetes prevalence based on TestSafe, the original VDR has a sensitivity of 89%, specificity of 96%, positive predictive value of 76% and negative predictive value of 98%. The modified VDR algorithm has improved the positive predictive value by 6.1% and the specificity by 1.4% with modest reductions in sensitivity of 2.2% and negative predictive value of 0.3%. At an aggregated level the overall diabetes prevalence estimated by the modified VDR is 5.7% higher than the corresponding estimate based on TestSafe. The Ministry of Health Virtual Diabetes Register algorithm has been refined to provide a more accurate diabetes prevalence estimate at a population level. The comparison highlights the potential value of a national population long term condition register constructed from both laboratory results and administrative data. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Satellite-based Estimates of Ambient Air Pollution and Global Variations in Childhood Asthma Prevalence

PubMed Central

Butland, Barbara K.; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Brauer, Michael; Strachan, David P.; Clayton, Tadd; van Dingenen, Rita; Amann, Marcus; Brunekreef, Bert; Cohen, Aaron; Dentener, Frank; Lai, Christopher; Lamsal, Lok N.; Martin, Randall V.; One, ISAAC Phase

2012-01-01

Background: The effect of ambient air pollution on global variations and trends in asthma prevalence is unclear. Objectives: Our goal was to investigate community-level associations between asthma prevalence data from the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) and satellite-based estimates of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 µm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and modelled estimates of ozone. Methods: We assigned satellite-based estimates of PM2.5 and NO2 at a spatial resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° and modeled estimates of ozone at a resolution of 1° × 1° to 183 ISAAC centers. We used center-level prevalence of severe asthma as the outcome and multilevel models to adjust for gross national income (GNI) and center- and country-level sex, climate, and population density. We examined associations (adjusting for GNI) between air pollution and asthma prevalence over time in centers with data from ISAAC Phase One (mid-1900s) and Phase Three (2001–2003). Results: For the 13- to 14-year age group (128 centers in 28 countries), the estimated average within-country change in center-level asthma prevalence per 100 children per 10% increase in center-level PM2.5 and NO2 was –0.043 [95% confidence interval (CI): –0.139, 0.053] and 0.017 (95% CI: –0.030, 0.064) respectively. For ozone the estimated change in prevalence per parts per billion by volume was –0.116 (95% CI: –0.234, 0.001). Equivalent results for the 6- to 7-year age group (83 centers in 20 countries), though slightly different, were not significantly positive. For the 13- to 14-year age group, change in center-level asthma prevalence over time per 100 children per 10% increase in PM2.5 from Phase One to Phase Three was –0.139 (95% CI: –0.347, 0.068). The corresponding association with ozone (per ppbV) was –0.171 (95% CI: –0.275, –0.067). Conclusion: In contrast to reports from within-community studies of individuals exposed to traffic pollution

Estimating prevalence of coronary heart disease for small areas using collateral indicators of morbidity.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2010-01-01

Different indicators of morbidity for chronic disease may not necessarily be available at a disaggregated spatial scale (e.g., for small areas with populations under 10 thousand). Instead certain indicators may only be available at a more highly aggregated spatial scale; for example, deaths may be recorded for small areas, but disease prevalence only at a considerably higher spatial scale. Nevertheless prevalence estimates at small area level are important for assessing health need. An instance is provided by England where deaths and hospital admissions for coronary heart disease are available for small areas known as wards, but prevalence is only available for relatively large health authority areas. To estimate CHD prevalence at small area level in such a situation, a shared random effect method is proposed that pools information regarding spatial morbidity contrasts over different indicators (deaths, hospitalizations, prevalence). The shared random effect approach also incorporates differences between small areas in known risk factors (e.g., income, ethnic structure). A Poisson-multinomial equivalence may be used to ensure small area prevalence estimates sum to the known higher area total. An illustration is provided by data for London using hospital admissions and CHD deaths at ward level, together with CHD prevalence totals for considerably larger local health authority areas. The shared random effect involved a spatially correlated common factor, that accounts for clustering in latent risk factors, and also provides a summary measure of small area CHD morbidity.

Estimating Prevalence of Coronary Heart Disease for Small Areas Using Collateral Indicators of Morbidity

PubMed Central

Congdon, Peter

2010-01-01

Different indicators of morbidity for chronic disease may not necessarily be available at a disaggregated spatial scale (e.g., for small areas with populations under 10 thousand). Instead certain indicators may only be available at a more highly aggregated spatial scale; for example, deaths may be recorded for small areas, but disease prevalence only at a considerably higher spatial scale. Nevertheless prevalence estimates at small area level are important for assessing health need. An instance is provided by England where deaths and hospital admissions for coronary heart disease are available for small areas known as wards, but prevalence is only available for relatively large health authority areas. To estimate CHD prevalence at small area level in such a situation, a shared random effect method is proposed that pools information regarding spatial morbidity contrasts over different indicators (deaths, hospitalizations, prevalence). The shared random effect approach also incorporates differences between small areas in known risk factors (e.g., income, ethnic structure). A Poisson-multinomial equivalence may be used to ensure small area prevalence estimates sum to the known higher area total. An illustration is provided by data for London using hospital admissions and CHD deaths at ward level, together with CHD prevalence totals for considerably larger local health authority areas. The shared random effect involved a spatially correlated common factor, that accounts for clustering in latent risk factors, and also provides a summary measure of small area CHD morbidity. PMID:20195439

Potential Impact of DSM-5 Criteria on Autism Spectrum Disorder Prevalence Estimates

PubMed Central

Maenner, Matthew J.; Rice, Catherine E.; Arneson, Carrie L.; Cunniff, Christopher; Schieve, Laura A.; Carpenter, Laura A.; Van Naarden Braun, Kim; Kirby, Russell S.; Bakian, Amanda V.; Durkin, Maureen S.

2014-01-01

IMPORTANCE The DSM-5 contains revised diagnostic criteria for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) from the DSM-IV-TR. Potential impacts of the new criteria on ASD prevalence are unclear. OBJECTIVE To assess potential effects of the DSM-5 ASD criteria on ASD prevalence estimation by retrospectively applying the new criteria to population-based surveillance data collected for previous ASD prevalence estimation. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Cross-sectional, population-based ASD surveillance based on clinician review of coded behaviors documented in children’s medical and educational evaluations from 14 geographically defined areas in the United States participating in the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network in 2006 and 2008. This study included 8-year-old children living in ADDM Network study areas in 2006 or 2008, including 644 883 children under surveillance, of whom 6577 met surveillance ASD case status based on the DSM-IV-TR. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Proportion of children meeting ADDM Network ASD criteria based on the DSM-IV-TR who also met DSM-5 criteria; overall prevalence of ASD using DSM-5 criteria. RESULTS Among the 6577 children classified by the ADDM Network as having ASD based on the DSM-IV-TR, 5339 (81.2%) met DSM-5 ASD criteria. This percentage was similar for boys and girls but higher for those with than without intellectual disability (86.6% and 72.5%, respectively; P < .001). A total of 304 children met DSM-5 ASD criteria but not current ADDM Network ASD case status. Based on these findings, ASD prevalence per 1000 for 2008 would have been 10.0 (95% CI, 9.6–10.3) using DSM-5 criteria compared with the reported prevalence based on DSM-IV-TR criteria of 11.3 (95% CI, 11.0–11.7). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Autism spectrum disorder prevalence estimates will likely be lower under DSM-5 than under DSM-IV-TR diagnostic criteria, although this effect could be tempered by future adaptation of diagnostic practices and

[Evaluation of estimation of prevalence ratio using bayesian log-binomial regression model].

PubMed

Gao, W L; Lin, H; Liu, X N; Ren, X W; Li, J S; Shen, X P; Zhu, S L

2017-03-10

To evaluate the estimation of prevalence ratio ( PR ) by using bayesian log-binomial regression model and its application, we estimated the PR of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea in their infants by using bayesian log-binomial regression model in Openbugs software. The results showed that caregivers' recognition of infant' s risk signs of diarrhea was associated significantly with a 13% increase of medical care-seeking. Meanwhile, we compared the differences in PR 's point estimation and its interval estimation of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea and convergence of three models (model 1: not adjusting for the covariates; model 2: adjusting for duration of caregivers' education, model 3: adjusting for distance between village and township and child month-age based on model 2) between bayesian log-binomial regression model and conventional log-binomial regression model. The results showed that all three bayesian log-binomial regression models were convergence and the estimated PRs were 1.130(95 %CI : 1.005-1.265), 1.128(95 %CI : 1.001-1.264) and 1.132(95 %CI : 1.004-1.267), respectively. Conventional log-binomial regression model 1 and model 2 were convergence and their PRs were 1.130(95 % CI : 1.055-1.206) and 1.126(95 % CI : 1.051-1.203), respectively, but the model 3 was misconvergence, so COPY method was used to estimate PR , which was 1.125 (95 %CI : 1.051-1.200). In addition, the point estimation and interval estimation of PRs from three bayesian log-binomial regression models differed slightly from those of PRs from conventional log-binomial regression model, but they had a good consistency in estimating PR . Therefore, bayesian log-binomial regression model can effectively estimate PR with less misconvergence and have more advantages in application compared with conventional log-binomial regression model.

Estimating the prevalence of 26 health-related indicators at neighbourhood level in the Netherlands using structured additive regression.

PubMed

van de Kassteele, Jan; Zwakhals, Laurens; Breugelmans, Oscar; Ameling, Caroline; van den Brink, Carolien

2017-07-01

Local policy makers increasingly need information on health-related indicators at smaller geographic levels like districts or neighbourhoods. Although more large data sources have become available, direct estimates of the prevalence of a health-related indicator cannot be produced for neighbourhoods for which only small samples or no samples are available. Small area estimation provides a solution, but unit-level models for binary-valued outcomes that can handle both non-linear effects of the predictors and spatially correlated random effects in a unified framework are rarely encountered. We used data on 26 binary-valued health-related indicators collected on 387,195 persons in the Netherlands. We associated the health-related indicators at the individual level with a set of 12 predictors obtained from national registry data. We formulated a structured additive regression model for small area estimation. The model captured potential non-linear relations between the predictors and the outcome through additive terms in a functional form using penalized splines and included a term that accounted for spatially correlated heterogeneity between neighbourhoods. The registry data were used to predict individual outcomes which in turn are aggregated into higher geographical levels, i.e. neighbourhoods. We validated our method by comparing the estimated prevalences with observed prevalences at the individual level and by comparing the estimated prevalences with direct estimates obtained by weighting methods at municipality level. We estimated the prevalence of the 26 health-related indicators for 415 municipalities, 2599 districts and 11,432 neighbourhoods in the Netherlands. We illustrate our method on overweight data and show that there are distinct geographic patterns in the overweight prevalence. Calibration plots show that the estimated prevalences agree very well with observed prevalences at the individual level. The estimated prevalences agree reasonably well with the

Higher-order Multivariable Polynomial Regression to Estimate Human Affective States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Jie; Chen, Tong; Liu, Guangyuan; Yang, Jiemin

2016-03-01

From direct observations, facial, vocal, gestural, physiological, and central nervous signals, estimating human affective states through computational models such as multivariate linear-regression analysis, support vector regression, and artificial neural network, have been proposed in the past decade. In these models, linear models are generally lack of precision because of ignoring intrinsic nonlinearities of complex psychophysiological processes; and nonlinear models commonly adopt complicated algorithms. To improve accuracy and simplify model, we introduce a new computational modeling method named as higher-order multivariable polynomial regression to estimate human affective states. The study employs standardized pictures in the International Affective Picture System to induce thirty subjects’ affective states, and obtains pure affective patterns of skin conductance as input variables to the higher-order multivariable polynomial model for predicting affective valence and arousal. Experimental results show that our method is able to obtain efficient correlation coefficients of 0.98 and 0.96 for estimation of affective valence and arousal, respectively. Moreover, the method may provide certain indirect evidences that valence and arousal have their brain’s motivational circuit origins. Thus, the proposed method can serve as a novel one for efficiently estimating human affective states.

Higher-order Multivariable Polynomial Regression to Estimate Human Affective States

PubMed Central

Wei, Jie; Chen, Tong; Liu, Guangyuan; Yang, Jiemin

2016-01-01

From direct observations, facial, vocal, gestural, physiological, and central nervous signals, estimating human affective states through computational models such as multivariate linear-regression analysis, support vector regression, and artificial neural network, have been proposed in the past decade. In these models, linear models are generally lack of precision because of ignoring intrinsic nonlinearities of complex psychophysiological processes; and nonlinear models commonly adopt complicated algorithms. To improve accuracy and simplify model, we introduce a new computational modeling method named as higher-order multivariable polynomial regression to estimate human affective states. The study employs standardized pictures in the International Affective Picture System to induce thirty subjects’ affective states, and obtains pure affective patterns of skin conductance as input variables to the higher-order multivariable polynomial model for predicting affective valence and arousal. Experimental results show that our method is able to obtain efficient correlation coefficients of 0.98 and 0.96 for estimation of affective valence and arousal, respectively. Moreover, the method may provide certain indirect evidences that valence and arousal have their brain’s motivational circuit origins. Thus, the proposed method can serve as a novel one for efficiently estimating human affective states. PMID:26996254

An estimate of the prevalence of hypertension in Nigeria: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Adeloye, Davies; Basquill, Catriona; Aderemi, Adewale V; Thompson, Jacqueline Y; Obi, Felix A

2015-02-01

Hypertension is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Africa, and Nigeria, the most populous country in the continent, hugely contributes to this burden. To provide an improved estimate of the prevalence and number of cases of hypertension in Nigeria based on the cut-off 'at least 140/90  mmHg', towards ensuring better awareness, control and policy response in the country. We conducted a systematic search of Medline, EMBASE and Global Health from January 1980 to December 2013 for population-based studies providing estimates on the prevalence of hypertension in Nigeria. From the extracted crude prevalence rates, we conducted a random-effects meta-analysis, and further estimated the overall awareness rate of hypertension in Nigeria, expressed as percentage of all hypertension cases. We applied a meta-regression epidemiological modelling, using United Nations population demographics for the years 2010 and 2030, to determine the prevalence and number of cases of hypertension in Nigeria for the 2 years. Our search returned 2260 publications, 27 of which met our selection criteria. From the random-effects meta-analysis, we estimated an overall hypertension prevalence of 28.9% (25.1, 32.8), with a prevalence of 29.5% (24.8, 34.3) among men and 25.0% (20.2, 29.7) among women. We estimated a prevalence of 30.6% (24.5, 36.6) and 26.4% (19.4, 33.4) among urban and rural dwellers, respectively. The pooled awareness rate of hypertension was 17.4% (11.4, 23.3). The overall mean SBP was 128.6 (125.5, 130.8) mmHg, and the DBP was 80.6 (78.5, 82.7) mmHg. From our modelling, we estimated about 20.8 million cases of hypertension in Nigeria among people aged at least 20 years in 2010, with a prevalence of 28.0% (24.6, 31.9) in both sexes - 30.7% (24.9, 33.7) among men and 25.2% (22.7, 31.9) among women. By 2030, we projected an increase to 39.1 million cases of hypertension among people aged at least 20 years with a prevalence of 30.8% (24.5, 33.7) in both sexes - 32.6% (27

Estimated prevalence of halitosis: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis.

PubMed

Silva, Manuela F; Leite, Fábio R M; Ferreira, Larissa B; Pola, Natália M; Scannapieco, Frank A; Demarco, Flávio F; Nascimento, Gustavo G

2018-01-01

This study aims to conduct a systematic review to determine the prevalence of halitosis in adolescents and adults. Electronic searches were performed using four different databases without restrictions: PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and SciELO. Population-based observational studies that provided data about the prevalence of halitosis in adolescents and adults were included. Additionally, meta-analyses, meta-regression, and sensitivity analyses were conducted to synthesize the evidence. A total of 584 articles were initially found and considered for title and abstract evaluation. Thirteen articles met inclusion criteria. The combined prevalence of halitosis was found to be 31.8% (95% CI 24.6-39.0%). Methodological aspects such as the year of publication and the socioeconomic status of the country where the study was conducted seemed to influence the prevalence of halitosis. Our results demonstrated that the estimated prevalence of halitosis was 31.8%, with high heterogeneity between studies. The results suggest a worldwide trend towards a rise in halitosis prevalence. Given the high prevalence of halitosis and its complex etiology, dental professionals should be aware of their roles in halitosis prevention and treatment.

Lifetime Prevalence and Correlates of Schizophrenia-Spectrum, Affective, and Other Non-affective Psychotic Disorders in the Chinese Adult Population.

PubMed

Chang, Wing Chung; Wong, Corine Sau Man; Chen, Eric Yu Hai; Lam, Linda Chiu Wa; Chan, Wai Chi; Ng, Roger Man Kin; Hung, Se Fong; Cheung, Eric Fuk Chi; Sham, Pak Chung; Chiu, Helen Fung Kum; Lam, Ming; Lee, Edwin Ho Ming; Chiang, Tin Po; Chan, Lap Kei; Lau, Gary Kar Wai; Lee, Allen Ting Chun; Leung, Grace Tak Yu; Leung, Joey Shuk Yan; Lau, Joseph Tak Fai; van Os, Jim; Lewis, Glyn; Bebbington, Paul

2017-10-21

Lifetime prevalence of psychotic disorders varies widely across studies. Epidemiological surveys have rarely examined prevalences of specific psychotic disorders other than schizophrenia, and the majority used a single-phase design without employing clinical reappraisal interview for diagnostic verification. The current study investigated lifetime prevalence, correlates and service utilization of schizophrenia-spectrum, affective, and other non-affective psychotic disorders in a representative sample of community-dwelling Chinese adult population aged 16-75 years (N = 5719) based on a territory-wide, population-based household survey for mental disorders in Hong Kong. The survey adopted a 2-phase design comprising first-phase psychosis screening and second-phase diagnostic verification incorporating clinical information from psychiatrist-administered semi-structured interview and medical record review to ascertain DSM-IV lifetime diagnosis for psychotic disorders. Data on sociodemographics, psychosocial characteristics and service utilization were collected. Our results showed that lifetime prevalence was 2.47% for psychotic disorder overall, 1.25% for schizophrenia, 0.15% for delusional disorder, 0.38% for psychotic disorder not otherwise specified, 0.31% for bipolar disorder with psychosis, and 0.33% for depressive disorder with psychosis. Schizophrenia-spectrum disorder was associated with family history of psychosis, cigarette smoking and variables indicating socioeconomic disadvantage. Victimization experiences were significantly related to affective psychoses and other non-affective psychoses. Around 80% of participants with any psychotic disorder sought some kind of professional help for mental health problems in the past year. Using comprehensive diagnostic assessment involving interview and record data, our results indicate that approximately 2.5% of Chinese adult population had lifetime psychotic disorder which represents a major public health concern. �

Pseudobulbar affect: prevalence and quality of life impact in movement disorders.

PubMed

Strowd, Roy E; Cartwright, Michael S; Okun, Michael S; Haq, Ihtsham; Siddiqui, Mustafa S

2010-08-01

Pseudobulbar affect (PBA) is an affective disinhibition syndrome characterized by sudden, involuntary outbursts of inappropriate crying or laughing. We have previously reported the prevalence of PBA in movement disorders using an interviewer-administered questionnaire that had not been validated. In the current study, a validated self-administered screening instrument, the Center for Neurologic Study-Lability Scale (CNS-LS), was used to study the prevalence of PBA, its association with mood symptoms, and the quality of life impact. Two hundred sixty-nine patients met inclusion criteria (consent, age > 18 years, formal diagnosis, and completion of the CNS-LS). The CNS-LS was used to assess PBA at a cutoff score of 17 (utilized from multiple sclerosis studies). The Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) scale and Parkinson's disease questionnaire (PDQ-39) were used to assess depressive symptoms and quality of life. Logistic regression analysis was used to predict associations with PBA. PBA was prevalent in 7.1% (n = 19) of movement disorder patients. No significant difference in prevalence was observed by patient diagnosis: 7.1% (12/168) in Parkinson's disease (PD), 11.4% (4/35) in essential tremor, 0% (0/13) in dystonia, 0% (0/16) in psychogenic movement disorders, and 10.7% (3/28) in patients with other movement disorders. Patients with PBA had higher BDI depression scores (p < 0.0001) and lower PDQ-39 emotional well-being subscores (p < 0.0001). Patients taking antidepressant medications had significantly higher rates of PBA (p = 0.0008). The prevalence of PBA symptoms was 7.1% in PD and all movement disorders patients. Patients with PBA tend to have more depressive symptoms and poorer quality of life.

Global trends in dietary micronutrient supplies and estimated prevalence of inadequate intakes

PubMed Central

Arsenault, Joanne E.; Smith, Matthew R.

2017-01-01

Understanding dietary patterns is vital to reducing the number of people experiencing hunger (about 795 million), micronutrient deficiencies (2 billion), and overweight or obesity (2.1 billion). We characterize global trends in dietary quality by estimating micronutrient density of the food supply, prevalence of inadequate intake of 14 micronutrients, and average prevalence of inadequate intake of these micronutrients for all countries between 1961 and 2011. Over this 50-year period, the estimated prevalence of inadequate intakes of micronutrients has declined in all regions due to increased total production of food and/or micronutrient density. This decline has been particularly strong in East and Southeast Asia and weaker in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region where dietary micronutrient density has declined over this 50-year period. At the global level, micronutrients with the lowest levels of adequate estimated intake are calcium, iron, vitamin A, and zinc, but there are strong differences between countries and regions. Fortification has reduced the estimated prevalence of inadequate micronutrient intakes in all low-income regions, except South Asia. The food supply in many countries is still far below energy requirements, which suggests a need to increase the availability and accessibility of nutritious foods. Countries where the food energy supply is adequate show a very large variation in dietary quality, and in many of these countries people would benefit from more diverse diets with a greater proportion of micronutrient-dense foods. Dietary quality can be improved through fortification, biofortification, and agricultural diversification, as well as efforts to improve access to and use of micronutrient-dense foods and nutritional knowledge. Reducing poverty and increasing education, especially of women, are integral to sustainably addressing malnutrition. PMID:28399168

Micronutrient Deficiencies Are Common in 6- to 8-Year-Old Children of Rural Nepal, with Prevalence Estimates Modestly Affected by Inflammation12

PubMed Central

Schulze, Kerry J.; Christian, Parul; Wu, Lee S.-F.; Arguello, Margia; Cui, Hongjie; Nanayakkara-Bind, Ashika; Stewart, Christine P.; Khatry, Subarna K.; LeClerq, Steven; West, Keith P.

2014-01-01

Subclinical micronutrient deficiencies remain a hidden aspect of malnutrition for which comprehensive data are lacking in school-aged children. We assessed the micronutrient status of Nepalese children, aged 6 to 8 y, born to mothers who participated in a community-based antenatal micronutrient supplementation trial from 1999 to 2001. Of 3305 participants, plasma indicators were assessed in a random sample of 1000 children. Results revealed deficiencies of vitamins A (retinol <0.70 μmol/L, 8.5%), D (25-hydroxyvitamin D <50 nmol/L, 17.2%), E (α-tocopherol <9.3 μmol/L, 17.9%), K (decarboxy prothombin >2 μg/L, 20%), B-12 (cobalamin <150 pmol/L, 18.1%), B-6 [pyridoxal-5′-phosphate (PLP) <20 nmol/L, 43.1%], and β-carotene (41.5% <0.09 μmol/L), with little folate deficiency (6.2% <13.6 nmol/L). Deficiencies of iron [ferritin <15 μg/L, 10.7%; transferrin receptor (TfR) >8.3 mg/L, 40.1%; TfR:ferritin >500 μg/μg, 14.3%], iodine (thyroglobulin >40 μg/L, 11.4%), and selenium (plasma selenium <0.89 μmol/L, 59.0%) were observed, whereas copper deficiency was nearly absent (plasma copper <11.8 μmol/L, 0.7%). Hemoglobin was not assessed. Among all children, 91.7% experienced at least 1 micronutrient deficiency, and 64.7% experienced multiple deficiencies. Inflammation (α-1 acid glycoprotein >1 g/L, C-reactive protein >5 mg/L, or both) was present in 31.6% of children, affecting the prevalence of deficiency as assessed by retinol, β-carotene, PLP, ferritin, TfR, selenium, copper, or having any or multiple deficiencies. For any nutrient, population deficiency prevalence estimates were altered by ≤5.4% by the presence of inflammation, suggesting that the majority of deficiencies exist regardless of inflammation. Multiple micronutrient deficiencies coexist in school-aged children in rural Nepal, meriting more comprehensive strategies for their assessment and prevention. PMID:24744314

Prevalence of lifetime DSM-IV affective disorders among older African Americans, Black Caribbeans, Latinos, Asians and non-Hispanic White people.

PubMed

Woodward, Amanda Toler; Taylor, Robert Joseph; Bullard, Kai McKeever; Aranda, Maria P; Lincoln, Karen D; Chatters, Linda M

2012-08-01

The purpose of this study is to estimate lifetime prevalence of seven psychiatric affective disorders for older non-Hispanic White people, African Americans, Caribbean Black people, Latinos, and Asian Americans and examine demographic, socioeconomic, and immigration correlates of those disorders. Data are taken from the older sub-sample of the Collaborative Psychiatric Epidemiology Surveys. Selected measures of lifetime DSM-IV psychiatric disorders were examined (i.e., panic disorder, agoraphobia, social phobia, generalized anxiety disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, major depressive disorder, and dysthymia). Community epidemiologic survey. Nationally representative sample of adults 55 years and older (n = 3046). Disorders were assessed using the DSM-IV World Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Major depressive disorder and social phobia were the two most prevalent disorders among the seven psychiatric conditions. Overall, non-Hispanic White people and Latinos consistently had higher prevalence rates of disorders, African Americans had lower prevalence of major depression and dysthymia, and Asian Americans were typically less likely to report affective disorders than those of their counterparts. There is variation across groups in the association of demographic, socioeconomic, and immigration variables with disorders. This study furthers our understanding of the racial and ethnic differences in the prevalence of DSM-IV disorders among older adults and the correlates of those disorders. It highlights the importance of examining both between-group and within-group differences in disorders and the complexity of the mechanisms associated with differences across groups. Findings from this study underscore the need for future research that more clearly delineates subgroup differences and similarities. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluation of test-strategies for estimating probability of low prevalence of paratuberculosis in Danish dairy herds.

PubMed

Sergeant, E S G; Nielsen, S S; Toft, N

2008-06-15

Paratuberculosis is a chronic infection affecting cattle and other ruminants. In the dairy industry, losses due to paratuberculosis can be substantial in infected herds and several countries have implemented national programmes based on herd-classification to manage the disease. The aim of this study was to develop a method to estimate the probability of low within-herd prevalence of paratuberculosis for Danish dairy herds. A stochastic simulation model was developed using the R programming environment. Features of this model included: use of age-specific estimates of test-sensitivity and specificity; use of a distribution of observed values (rather than a fixed, low value) for design prevalence; and estimates of the probability of low prevalence (PrLow) based on a specific number of test-positive animals, rather than for a result less than or equal to a specified cut-point number of reactors. Using this model, five herd-testing strategies were evaluated: (1) milk-ELISA on all lactating cows; (2) milk-ELISA on lactating cows4 years old; (4) faecal culture on all lactating cows; and (5) milk-ELISA plus faecal culture in series on all lactating cows. The five testing strategies were evaluated using observed milk-ELISA results from 19 Danish dairy herds as well as for simulated results from the same herds assuming that they were uninfected. Whole-herd milk-ELISA was the preferred strategy, and considered the most cost-effective strategy of the five alternatives. The five strategies were all efficient in detecting infection, i.e. estimating a low PrLow in infected herds, however, PrLow estimates for milk-ELISA on age-cohorts were too low in simulated uninfected herds and the strategies involving faecal culture were too expensive to be of practical interest. For simulated uninfected herds, whole-herd milk-ELISA resulted in median PrLow values>0.9 for most herds, depending on herd size and age-structure. None of the

Estimated prevalence of dementia based on analysis of drug databases in the Region of Madrid (Spain).

PubMed

de Hoyos-Alonso, M C; Bonis, J; Tapias-Merino, E; Castell, M V; Otero, A

2016-01-01

The progressive rise in dementia prevalence increases the need for rapid methods that complement population-based prevalence studies. To estimate the prevalence of dementia in the population aged 65 and older based on use of cholinesterase inhibitors and memantine. Descriptive study of use and prescription of cholinesterase inhibitors and/or memantine in 2011 according to 2 databases: Farm@drid (pharmacy billing records for the Region of Madrid) and BIFAP (database for pharmacoepidemiology research in primary care, with diagnosis and prescription records). We tested the comparability of drug use results from each database using the chi-square test and prevalence ratios. The prevalence of dementia in Madrid was estimated based on the dose per 100 inhabitants/day, adjusting the result for data obtained from BIFAP on combination treatment in the general population (0.37%) and the percentage of dementia patients undergoing treatment (41.13%). Cholinesterase inhibitors and memantine were taken by 2.08% and 0.72% of Madrid residents aged 65 and older was respectively. Both databases displayed similar results for use of these drugs. The estimated prevalence of dementia in individuals aged 65 and older is 5.91% (95% CI%, 5.85-5.95) (52 287 people), and it is higher in women (7.16%) than in men (4.00%). The estimated prevalence of dementia is similar to that found in population-based studies. Analysing consumption of specific dementia drugs can be a reliable and inexpensive means of updating prevalence data periodically and helping rationalise healthcare resources. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Does prevalence matter to physicians in estimating post-test probability of disease? A randomized trial.

PubMed

Agoritsas, Thomas; Courvoisier, Delphine S; Combescure, Christophe; Deom, Marie; Perneger, Thomas V

2011-04-01

The probability of a disease following a diagnostic test depends on the sensitivity and specificity of the test, but also on the prevalence of the disease in the population of interest (or pre-test probability). How physicians use this information is not well known. To assess whether physicians correctly estimate post-test probability according to various levels of prevalence and explore this skill across respondent groups. Randomized trial. Population-based sample of 1,361 physicians of all clinical specialties. We described a scenario of a highly accurate screening test (sensitivity 99% and specificity 99%) in which we randomly manipulated the prevalence of the disease (1%, 2%, 10%, 25%, 95%, or no information). We asked physicians to estimate the probability of disease following a positive test (categorized as <60%, 60-79%, 80-94%, 95-99.9%, and >99.9%). Each answer was correct for a different version of the scenario, and no answer was possible in the "no information" scenario. We estimated the proportion of physicians proficient in assessing post-test probability as the proportion of correct answers beyond the distribution of answers attributable to guessing. Most respondents in each of the six groups (67%-82%) selected a post-test probability of 95-99.9%, regardless of the prevalence of disease and even when no information on prevalence was provided. This answer was correct only for a prevalence of 25%. We estimated that 9.1% (95% CI 6.0-14.0) of respondents knew how to assess correctly the post-test probability. This proportion did not vary with clinical experience or practice setting. Most physicians do not take into account the prevalence of disease when interpreting a positive test result. This may cause unnecessary testing and diagnostic errors.

Redrawing the US Obesity Landscape: Bias-Corrected Estimates of State-Specific Adult Obesity Prevalence

PubMed Central

Ward, Zachary J.; Long, Michael W.; Resch, Stephen C.; Gortmaker, Steven L.; Cradock, Angie L.; Giles, Catherine; Hsiao, Amber; Wang, Y. Claire

2016-01-01

Background State-level estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) underestimate the obesity epidemic because they use self-reported height and weight. We describe a novel bias-correction method and produce corrected state-level estimates of obesity and severe obesity. Methods Using non-parametric statistical matching, we adjusted self-reported data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) 2013 (n = 386,795) using measured data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (n = 16,924). We validated our national estimates against NHANES and estimated bias-corrected state-specific prevalence of obesity (BMI≥30) and severe obesity (BMI≥35). We compared these results with previous adjustment methods. Results Compared to NHANES, self-reported BRFSS data underestimated national prevalence of obesity by 16% (28.67% vs 34.01%), and severe obesity by 23% (11.03% vs 14.26%). Our method was not significantly different from NHANES for obesity or severe obesity, while previous methods underestimated both. Only four states had a corrected obesity prevalence below 30%, with four exceeding 40%–in contrast, most states were below 30% in CDC maps. Conclusions Twelve million adults with obesity (including 6.7 million with severe obesity) were misclassified by CDC state-level estimates. Previous bias-correction methods also resulted in underestimates. Accurate state-level estimates are necessary to plan for resources to address the obesity epidemic. PMID:26954566

The global prevalence of HFE and non-HFE hemochromatosis estimated from analysis of next-generation sequencing data.

PubMed

Wallace, Daniel F; Subramaniam, V Nathan

2016-06-01

The prevalence of HFE-related hereditary hemochromatosis (HH) among European populations has been well studied. There are no prevalence data for atypical forms of HH caused by mutations in HFE2, HAMP, TFR2, or SLC40A1. The purpose of this study was to estimate the population prevalence of these non-HFE forms of HH. A list of HH pathogenic variants in publically available next-generation sequence (NGS) databases was compiled and allele frequencies were determined. Of 161 variants previously associated with HH, 43 were represented among the NGS data sets; an additional 40 unreported functional variants also were identified. The predicted prevalence of HFE HH and the p.Cys282Tyr mutation closely matched previous estimates from similar populations. Of the non-HFE forms of iron overload, TFR2-, HFE2-, and HAMP-related forms are predicted to be rare, with pathogenic allele frequencies in the range of 0.00007 to 0.0005. Significantly, SLC40A1 variants that have been previously associated with autosomal-dominant ferroportin disease were identified in several populations (pathogenic allele frequency 0.0004), being most prevalent among Africans. We have, for the first time, estimated the population prevalence of non-HFE HH. This methodology could be applied to estimate the population prevalence of a wide variety of genetic disorders.Genet Med 18 6, 618-626.

[Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease prevalence estimated using a standard algorithm based on electronic health data in various areas of Italy].

PubMed

Faustini, Annunziata; Cascini, Silvia; Arcà, Massimo; Balzi, Daniela; Barchielli, Alessandro; Canova, Cristina; Galassi, Claudia; Migliore, Enrica; Minerba, Sante; Protti, Maria Angela; Romanelli, Anna; Tessari, Roberta; Vigotti, Maria Angela; Simonato, Lorenzo

2008-01-01

to estimate the prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) by integrating various administrative health information systems. prevalent COPD cases were defined as those reported in the hospital discharge registry (HDR) and cause of mortality registry (CMR) with codes 490*, 491*, 492*, 494* and 496* of the International diseases classification 9th revision. Annual prevalence was estimated in 35+ year-old residents in six Italian areas ofb different sizes, in the period 2002-2004. We included cases observed in the previous four years who were alive at the beginning of each year. in 2003, age-standardized prevalence rates varied from 1.6% in Venice to 5% in Taranto. Prevalence was higher in males and increased with age. The highest rates were observed in central (Rome) and southern (Taranto) cities, especially in the 35-64 age group. HDR contributed 91% of cases. Health-tax exemption registry would increase the prevalence estimate by 0.2% if used as a third data source. with respect to the National Health Status survey, COPD prevalence is underestimated by 1%-3%; this can partly be due to the selection of severe and exacerbated COPD by the algorithm used. However, age, gender and geographical characteristics of prevalent cases were comparable to national estimates. Including cases observed in previous years (longitudinal estimates) increased the point estimate (yearly) of prevalence two or three times in each area.

Small area estimation of obesity prevalence and dietary patterns: a model applied to Rio de Janeiro city, Brazil.

PubMed

Cataife, Guido

2014-03-01

We propose the use of previously developed small area estimation techniques to monitor obesity and dietary habits in developing countries and apply the model to Rio de Janeiro city. We estimate obesity prevalence rates at the Census Tract through a combinatorial optimization spatial microsimulation model that matches body mass index and socio-demographic data in Brazil's 2008-9 family expenditure survey with Census 2010 socio-demographic data. Obesity ranges from 8% to 25% in most areas and affects the poor almost as much as the rich. Male and female obesity rates are uncorrelated at the small area level. The model is an effective tool to understand the complexity of the problem and to aid in policy design. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Estimates of the population prevalence of injection drug users among hispanic residents of large US metropolitan areas.

PubMed

Pouget, Enrique R; Friedman, Samuel R; Cleland, Charles M; Tempalski, Barbara; Cooper, Hannah L F

2012-06-01

Little information exists on the population prevalence or geographic distribution of injection drug users (IDUs) who are Hispanic in the USA. Here, we present yearly estimates of IDU population prevalence among Hispanic residents of the 96 most populated US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) for 1992-2002. First, yearly estimates of the proportion of IDUs who were Hispanic in each MSA were created by combining data on (1) IDUs receiving drug treatment services in Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA)'s Treatment Entry Data System, (2) IDUs being tested in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) HIV-Counseling and Testing System, and (3) incident AIDS diagnoses among IDUs, supplemented by (4) data on IDUs who were living with AIDS. Then, the resulting proportions were multiplied by published yearly estimates of the number of IDUs of all racial/ethnic groups in each MSA to produce Hispanic IDU population estimates. These were divided by Hispanic population data to produce population prevalence rates. Time trends were tested using mixed-effects regression models. Hispanic IDU prevalence declined significantly on average (1992 mean = 192, median = 133; 2002 mean = 144, median = 93; units are per 10,000 Hispanics aged 15-64). The highest prevalence rates across time tended to be in smaller northeastern MSAs. Comparing the last three study years to the first three, prevalence decreased in 82% of MSAs and increased in 18%. Comparisons with data on drug-related mortality and hepatitis C mortality supported the validity of the estimates. Generally, estimates of Hispanic IDU population prevalence were higher than published estimates for non-Hispanic White residents and lower than published estimates for non-Hispanic Black residents. Further analysis indicated that the proportion of IDUs that was Hispanic decreased in 52% and increased in 48% of MSAs between 2002 and 2007. The estimates resulting from this study can

Estimating micro area behavioural risk factor prevalence from large population-based surveys: a full Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Seliske, L; Norwood, T A; McLaughlin, J R; Wang, S; Palleschi, C; Holowaty, E

2016-06-07

An important public health goal is to decrease the prevalence of key behavioural risk factors, such as tobacco use and obesity. Survey information is often available at the regional level, but heterogeneity within large geographic regions cannot be assessed. Advanced spatial analysis techniques are demonstrated to produce sensible micro area estimates of behavioural risk factors that enable identification of areas with high prevalence. A spatial Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate the micro area prevalence of current smoking and excess bodyweight for the Erie-St. Clair region in southwestern Ontario. Estimates were mapped for male and female respondents of five cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS). The micro areas were 2006 Census Dissemination Areas, with an average population of 400-700 people. Two individual-level models were specified: one controlled for survey cycle and age group (model 1), and one controlled for survey cycle, age group and micro area median household income (model 2). Post-stratification was used to derive micro area behavioural risk factor estimates weighted to the population structure. SaTScan analyses were conducted on the granular, postal-code level CCHS data to corroborate findings of elevated prevalence. Current smoking was elevated in two urban areas for both sexes (Sarnia and Windsor), and an additional small community (Chatham) for males only. Areas of excess bodyweight were prevalent in an urban core (Windsor) among males, but not females. Precision of the posterior post-stratified current smoking estimates was improved in model 2, as indicated by narrower credible intervals and a lower coefficient of variation. For excess bodyweight, both models had similar precision. Aggregation of the micro area estimates to CCHS design-based estimates validated the findings. This is among the first studies to apply a full Bayesian model to complex sample survey data to identify micro areas with variation in risk

Global and Regional Estimates of Prevalent and Incident Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 Infections in 2012

PubMed Central

Looker, Katharine J.; Magaret, Amalia S.; May, Margaret T.; Turner, Katherine M. E.; Vickerman, Peter; Gottlieb, Sami L.; Newman, Lori M.

2015-01-01

Background Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) commonly causes orolabial ulcers, while HSV-2 commonly causes genital ulcers. However, HSV-1 is an increasing cause of genital infection. Previously, the World Health Organization estimated the global burden of HSV-2 for 2003 and for 2012. The global burden of HSV-1 has not been estimated. Methods We fitted a constant-incidence model to pooled HSV-1 prevalence data from literature searches for 6 World Health Organization regions and used 2012 population data to derive global numbers of 0-49-year-olds with prevalent and incident HSV-1 infection. To estimate genital HSV-1, we applied values for the proportion of incident infections that are genital. Findings We estimated that 3709 million people (range: 3440–3878 million) aged 0–49 years had prevalent HSV-1 infection in 2012 (67%), with highest prevalence in Africa, South-East Asia and Western Pacific. Assuming 50% of incident infections among 15-49-year-olds are genital, an estimated 140 million (range: 67–212 million) people had prevalent genital HSV-1 infection, most of which occurred in the Americas, Europe and Western Pacific. Conclusions The global burden of HSV-1 infection is huge. Genital HSV-1 burden can be substantial but varies widely by region. Future control efforts, including development of HSV vaccines, should consider the epidemiology of HSV-1 in addition to HSV-2, and especially the relative contribution of HSV-1 to genital infection. PMID:26510007

A meta-regression analysis of 41 Australian problem gambling prevalence estimates and their relationship to total spending on electronic gaming machines.

PubMed

Markham, Francis; Young, Martin; Doran, Bruce; Sugden, Mark

2017-05-23

Many jurisdictions regularly conduct surveys to estimate the prevalence of problem gambling in their adult populations. However, the comparison of such estimates is problematic due to methodological variations between studies. Total consumption theory suggests that an association between mean electronic gaming machine (EGM) and casino gambling losses and problem gambling prevalence estimates may exist. If this is the case, then changes in EGM losses may be used as a proxy indicator for changes in problem gambling prevalence. To test for this association this study examines the relationship between aggregated losses on electronic gaming machines (EGMs) and problem gambling prevalence estimates for Australian states and territories between 1994 and 2016. A Bayesian meta-regression analysis of 41 cross-sectional problem gambling prevalence estimates was undertaken using EGM gambling losses, year of survey and methodological variations as predictor variables. General population studies of adults in Australian states and territory published before 1 July 2016 were considered in scope. 41 studies were identified, with a total of 267,367 participants. Problem gambling prevalence, moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence, problem gambling screen, administration mode and frequency threshold were extracted from surveys. Administrative data on EGM and casino gambling loss data were extracted from government reports and expressed as the proportion of household disposable income lost. Money lost on EGMs is correlated with problem gambling prevalence. An increase of 1% of household disposable income lost on EGMs and in casinos was associated with problem gambling prevalence estimates that were 1.33 times higher [95% credible interval 1.04, 1.71]. There was no clear association between EGM losses and moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates. Moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates were not explained by the models (I 2  ≥ 0.97; R 2  ≤ 0.01). The

Estimating Prevalence of Overweight or Obese Children and Adolescents in Small Geographic Areas Using Publicly Available Data

PubMed Central

Davila-Payan, Carlo; DeGuzman, Michael; Johnson, Kevin; Serban, Nicoleta

2015-01-01

Introduction Interventions for pediatric obesity can be geographically targeted if high-risk populations can be identified. We developed an approach to estimate the percentage of overweight or obese children aged 2 to 17 years in small geographic areas using publicly available data. We piloted our approach for Georgia. Methods We created a logistic regression model to estimate the individual probability of high body mass index (BMI), given data on the characteristics of the survey participants. We combined the regression model with a simulation to sample subpopulations and obtain prevalence estimates. The models used information from the 2001–2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, the 2010 Census, and the 2010 American Community Survey. We validated our results by comparing 1) estimates for adults in Georgia produced by using our approach with estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and 2) estimates for children in Arkansas produced by using our approach with school examination data. We generated prevalence estimates for census tracts in Georgia and prioritized areas for interventions. Results In DeKalb County, the mean prevalence among census tracts varied from 27% to 40%. For adults, the median difference between our estimates and CDC estimates was 1.3 percentage points; for Arkansas children, the median difference between our estimates and examination-based estimates data was 1.7 percentage points. Conclusion Prevalence estimates for census tracts can be different from estimates for the county, so small-area estimates are crucial for designing effective interventions. Our approach validates well against external data, and it can be a relevant aid for planning local interventions for children. PMID:25764138

Body dysmorphic disorder in different settings: A systematic review and estimated weighted prevalence.

PubMed

Veale, David; Gledhill, Lucinda J; Christodoulou, Polyxeni; Hodsoll, John

2016-09-01

Our aim was to systematically review the prevalence of body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) in a variety of settings. Weighted prevalence estimate and 95% confidence intervals in each study were calculated. The weighted prevalence of BDD in adults in the community was estimated to be 1.9%; in adolescents 2.2%; in student populations 3.3%; in adult psychiatric inpatients 7.4%; in adolescent psychiatric inpatients 7.4%; in adult psychiatric outpatients 5.8%; in general cosmetic surgery 13.2%; in rhinoplasty surgery 20.1%; in orthognathic surgery 11.2%; in orthodontics/cosmetic dentistry settings 5.2%; in dermatology outpatients 11.3%; in cosmetic dermatology outpatients 9.2%; and in acne dermatology clinics 11.1%. Women outnumbered men in the majority of settings but not in cosmetic or dermatological settings. BDD is common in some psychiatric and cosmetic settings but is poorly identified. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gambling disorder: estimated prevalence rates and risk factors in Macao.

PubMed

Wu, Anise M S; Lai, Mark H C; Tong, Kwok-Kit

2014-12-01

An excessive, problematic gambling pattern has been regarded as a mental disorder in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM) for more than 3 decades (American Psychiatric Association [APA], 1980). In this study, its latest prevalence in Macao (one of very few cities with legalized gambling in China and the Far East) was estimated with 2 major changes in the diagnostic criteria, suggested by the 5th edition of DSM (APA, 2013): (a) removing the "Illegal Act" criterion, and (b) lowering the threshold for diagnosis. A random, representative sample of 1,018 Macao residents was surveyed with a phone poll design in January 2013. After the 2 changes were adopted, the present study showed that the estimated prevalence rate of gambling disorder was 2.1% of the Macao adult population. Moreover, the present findings also provided empirical support to the application of these 2 recommended changes when assessing symptoms of gambling disorder among Chinese community adults. Personal risk factors of gambling disorder, namely being male, having low education, a preference for casino gambling, as well as high materialism, were identified.

Integrating environmental and self-report data to refine cannabis prevalence estimates in a major urban area of Switzerland.

PubMed

Been, Frederic; Schneider, Christian; Zobel, Frank; Delémont, Olivier; Esseiva, Pierre

2016-10-01

Cannabis consumption is a topical subject because of discussions about reviewing current regulations. In this context, having a more comprehensive approach to assess and monitor prevalence and consumption is highly relevant. The objective of this work was to refine current estimates about prevalence of cannabis use by combining self-report data and results derived from wastewater analysis. Self-report data was retrieved from surveys conducted in Switzerland and Europe. Wastewater samples were collected at the wastewater treatment plant of Lausanne, western Switzerland, over a 15 months period. The occurrence of 11-nor-9-carboxy-delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC-COOH), a specific metabolite of delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), was monitored. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate consumption, prevalence and number of cannabis users in the investigated area. According to survey data, 12-months prevalence in western Switzerland was estimated to 6.2% of the population aged 15 or older, with an estimated daily cannabis consumption of 8.1gday(-1)·1000inhab(-1) (at 11.2% purity). The integrative model comprising self-report and wastewater data substantially reduced the uncertainty in the estimates and suggested a last-year prevalence of 9.4%, with a daily cannabis consumption of 14.0gday(-1)·1000inhab(-1). Although in the same order of magnitude, consumption and prevalence estimates obtained with the integrative model were 78% and 52% higher compared to self-report figures, respectively. Interestingly, these figures are similar to discrepancies observed when comparing self-reported alcohol consumption and sales or tax data. The suggested integrative model allowed to account for known sources of uncertainty and provided refined estimates of cannabis prevalence in a major urban area of Switzerland. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating Epilepsy Incidence and Prevalence in the US Pediatric Population Using Nationwide Health Insurance Claims Data.

PubMed

Kim, Hyunmi; Thurman, David J; Durgin, Tracy; Faught, Edward; Helmers, Sandra

2016-05-01

This study aims to determine prevalence and incidence of epilepsy in the US pediatric population. We analyzed commercial claims and Medicaid insurance claims data between 2008 and 2012. Over 8 million continuously enrolled lives aged 0 to 19 years were included. Our definition of a prevalent case of epilepsy was based on International Classification of Diseases-coded diagnoses of epilepsy or seizures and evidence of prescribed antiepileptic drugs. Incident cases were identified in subjects continuously enrolled for ≥2 years of which the first 2 years had no indication of epilepsy or seizures. The overall prevalence estimate for 2012 was 6.8 per 1,000 children. The overall incidence estimate for 2012 was 104 per 100,000 pediatric population. This study provides estimates of the prevalence and incidence of epilepsy in the US pediatric population, using large claims datasets from multiple US population sectors. The findings appear reasonably representative of the US-insured pediatric population. © The Author(s) 2015.

State-level estimates of childhood obesity prevalence in the United States corrected for report bias.

PubMed

Long, M W; Ward, Z J; Resch, S C; Cradock, A L; Wang, Y C; Giles, C M; Gortmaker, S L

2016-10-01

State-specific obesity prevalence data are critical to public health efforts to address the childhood obesity epidemic. However, few states administer objectively measured body mass index (BMI) surveillance programs. This study reports state-specific childhood obesity prevalence by age and sex correcting for parent-reported child height and weight bias. As part of the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost Effectiveness Study (CHOICES), we developed childhood obesity prevalence estimates for states for the period 2005-2010 using data from the 2010 US Census and American Community Survey (ACS), 2003-2004 and 2007-2008 National Survey of Children's Health (NSCH) (n=133 213), and 2005-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) (n=9377; ages 2-17). Measured height and weight data from NHANES were used to correct parent-report bias in NSCH using a non-parametric statistical matching algorithm. Model estimates were validated against surveillance data from five states (AR, FL, MA, PA and TN) that conduct censuses of children across a range of grades. Parent-reported height and weight resulted in the largest overestimation of childhood obesity in males ages 2-5 years (NSCH: 42.36% vs NHANES: 11.44%). The CHOICES model estimates for this group (12.81%) and for all age and sex categories were not statistically different from NHANES. Our modeled obesity prevalence aligned closely with measured data from five validation states, with a 0.64 percentage point mean difference (range: 0.23-1.39) and a high correlation coefficient (r=0.96, P=0.009). Estimated state-specific childhood obesity prevalence ranged from 11.0 to 20.4%. Uncorrected estimates of childhood obesity prevalence from NSCH vary widely from measured national data, from a 278% overestimate among males aged 2-5 years to a 44% underestimate among females aged 14-17 years. This study demonstrates the validity of the CHOICES matching methods to correct the bias of parent-reported BMI data and

Accuracy of Herdsmen Reporting versus Serologic Testing for Estimating Foot-and-Mouth Disease Prevalence

PubMed Central

Handel, Ian G.; Tanya, Vincent N.; Hamman, Saidou M.; Nfon, Charles; Bergman, Ingrid E.; Malirat, Viviana; Sorensen, Karl J.; Bronsvoort, Barend M. de C.

2014-01-01

Herdsman-reported disease prevalence is widely used in veterinary epidemiologic studies, especially for diseases with visible external lesions; however, the accuracy of such reports is rarely validated. Thus, we used latent class analysis in a Bayesian framework to compare sensitivity and specificity of herdsman reporting with virus neutralization testing and use of 3 nonstructural protein ELISAs for estimates of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) prevalence on the Adamawa plateau of Cameroon in 2000. Herdsman-reported estimates in this FMD-endemic area were comparable to those obtained from serologic testing. To harness to this cost-effective resource of monitoring emerging infectious diseases, we suggest that estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of herdsmen reporting should be done in parallel with serologic surveys of other animal diseases. PMID:25417556

Joint use of epidemiological and hospital medico-administrative data to estimate prevalence. Application to French data on breast cancer.

PubMed

Colonna, Marc; Mitton, Nicolas; Schott, Anne-Marie; Remontet, Laurent; Olive, Frédéric; Gomez, Frédéric; Iwaz, Jean; Polazzi, Stéphanie; Bossard, Nadine; Trombert, Béatrice

2012-04-01

Estimate complete, limited-duration, and hospital prevalence of breast cancer in a French Département covered by a population-based cancer registry and in whole France using complementary information sources. Incidence data from a cancer registry, national incidence estimations for France, mortality data, and hospital medico-administrative data were used to estimate the three prevalence indices. The methods included a modelling of epidemiological data and a specific process of data extraction from medico-administrative databases. Limited-duration prevalence at 33 years was a proxy for complete prevalence only in patients aged less than 70 years. In 2007 and in women older than 15 years, the limited-duration prevalence at 33 years rate per 100,000 women was estimated at 2372 for Département Isère and 2354 for whole France. The latter rate corresponded to 613,000 women. The highest rate corresponded to women aged 65-74 years (6161 per 100,000 in whole France). About one third of the 33-year limited-duration prevalence cases were diagnosed five years before and about one fourth were hospitalized for breast-cancer-related care (i.e., hospital prevalence). In 2007, the rate of hospitalized women was 557 per 100,000 in whole France. Among the 120,310 women hospitalized for breast-cancer-related care in 2007, about 13% were diagnosed before 2004. Limited-duration prevalence (long- and short-term), and hospital prevalence are complementary indices of cancer prevalence. Their efficient direct or indirect estimations are essential to reflect the burden of the disease and forecast median- and long-term medical, economic, and social patient needs, especially after the initial treatment. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tuberculosis among elderly Chinese in residential homes: tuberculin reactivity and estimated prevalence.

PubMed

Woo, J; Chan, H S; Hazlett, C B; Ho, S C; Chan, R; Sham, A; Davies, P D

1996-01-01

Objectives of this study were to determine the prevalence of positive tuberculin reactivity and associated factors among elderly nursing home residents in a population with a relatively high tuberculosis notification rate, to estimate the prevalence of active tuberculosis, and to assess tuberculin reactivity as a screening tool. A stratified, disproportional, randomized cluster sample of residents was selected and the Mantoux test (using 0.1 ml of 5 tuberculin units of purified protein derivative of tuberculin) carried out. All subjects with a positive test had a chest X-ray followed by sputum smear and culture if the X-ray was abnormal. Sputum examination was also carried out in a random sample of controls, matched for age and gender, drawn from subjects with a negative Mantoux test. Information regarding medical history, tobacco smoking habits, symptoms related to tuberculosis, and communal eating habits were gathered. Also anthropometric data were collected. Sixteen nursing homes in the catchment area of a major district hospital in Hong Kong comprising 587 residents (136 men, 451 women, mean age 80 +/- 8 years) participated in this study. The weighted prevalence of tuberculin reactivity was 43.8%. It was higher in men, among those who took their meals in a common area, in the younger age group, and in those with no previous history of hospitalization. No association was found between prevalence and duration of residence, smoking, skinfold thickness, past medical history, or any relevant symptoms. Following radiological and sputum examination, the estimated prevalence of active tuberculosis ranged from 1.2 to 2.6%. The sensitivity of the tuberculin test was 86, the specificity 30%. The prevalence of active tuberculosis in nursing homes in Hong Kong is high, but it is unclear whether cross-infection or poor health of the residents is the major contributing factor. Tuberculin skin testing does not appear to be a useful screening method in this population.

Surround-Masking Affects Visual Estimation Ability

PubMed Central

Jastrzebski, Nicola R.; Hugrass, Laila E.; Crewther, Sheila G.; Crewther, David P.

2017-01-01

Visual estimation of numerosity involves the discrimination of magnitude between two distributions or perceptual sets that vary in number of elements. How performance on such estimation depends on peripheral sensory stimulation is unclear, even in typically developing adults. Here, we varied the central and surround contrast of stimuli that comprised a visual estimation task in order to determine whether mechanisms involved with the removal of unessential visual input functionally contributes toward number acuity. The visual estimation judgments of typically developed adults were significantly impaired for high but not low contrast surround stimulus conditions. The center and surround contrasts of the stimuli also differentially affected the accuracy of numerosity estimation depending on whether fewer or more dots were presented. Remarkably, observers demonstrated the highest mean percentage accuracy across stimulus conditions in the discrimination of more elements when the surround contrast was low and the background luminance of the central region containing the elements was dark (black center). Conversely, accuracy was severely impaired during the discrimination of fewer elements when the surround contrast was high and the background luminance of the central region was mid level (gray center). These findings suggest that estimation ability is functionally related to the quality of low-order filtration of unessential visual information. These surround masking results may help understanding of the poor visual estimation ability commonly observed in developmental dyscalculia. PMID:28360845

Grouping methods for estimating the prevalences of rare traits from complex survey data that preserve confidentiality of respondents.

PubMed

Hyun, Noorie; Gastwirth, Joseph L; Graubard, Barry I

2018-03-26

Originally, 2-stage group testing was developed for efficiently screening individuals for a disease. In response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic, 1-stage group testing was adopted for estimating prevalences of a single or multiple traits from testing groups of size q, so individuals were not tested. This paper extends the methodology of 1-stage group testing to surveys with sample weighted complex multistage-cluster designs. Sample weighted-generalized estimating equations are used to estimate the prevalences of categorical traits while accounting for the error rates inherent in the tests. Two difficulties arise when using group testing in complex samples: (1) How does one weight the results of the test on each group as the sample weights will differ among observations in the same group. Furthermore, if the sample weights are related to positivity of the diagnostic test, then group-level weighting is needed to reduce bias in the prevalence estimation; (2) How does one form groups that will allow accurate estimation of the standard errors of prevalence estimates under multistage-cluster sampling allowing for intracluster correlation of the test results. We study 5 different grouping methods to address the weighting and cluster sampling aspects of complex designed samples. Finite sample properties of the estimators of prevalences, variances, and confidence interval coverage for these grouping methods are studied using simulations. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data are used to illustrate the methods. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

[Prevalence and diagnosis of depression in Mexico].

PubMed

Belló, Mariana; Puentes-Rosas, Esteban; Medina-Mora, María Elena; Lozano, Rafael

2005-01-01

To present the prevalence of depressive episodes, as well as the percentage of the population with medical diagnosis. The definition of depression was based on a schedule with DSM IV diagnostic criteria. Using data from the 2002-2003 National Assessment Performance Survey, the prevalence of depression was estimated at the national level, by sex, age, education, size of residence community, and state. The percentage of individuals with medically diagnosed depression and the percentage of those under treatment were also estimated. The national prevalence of depression was 4.5%: 5.8% in women and 2.5% in men. The prevalence of depression increased with age and decreased with higher education. Among males, the prevalence was higher in rural than urban communities. A large percentage of affected individuals have no medical diagnosis. Depression is a frequent disease in adults.A higher prevalence is associated with social vulnerability. The low percentage of diagnosis represents a challenge for mental health service planning and provision.

Population-based estimates of the prevalence of FMR1 expansion mutations in women with early menopause and primary ovarian insufficiency.

PubMed

Murray, Anna; Schoemaker, Minouk J; Bennett, Claire E; Ennis, Sarah; Macpherson, James N; Jones, Michael; Morris, Danielle H; Orr, Nick; Ashworth, Alan; Jacobs, Patricia A; Swerdlow, Anthony J

2014-01-01

Primary ovarian insufficiency before the age of 40 years affects 1% of the female population and is characterized by permanent cessation of menstruation. Genetic causes include FMR1 expansion mutations. Previous studies have estimated mutation prevalence in clinical referrals for primary ovarian insufficiency, but these are likely to be biased as compared with cases in the general population. The prevalence of FMR1 expansion mutations in early menopause (between the ages of 40 and 45 years) has not been published. We studied FMR1 CGG repeat number in more than 2,000 women from the Breakthrough Generations Study who underwent menopause before the age of 46 years. We determined the prevalence of premutation (55-200 CGG repeats) and intermediate (45-54 CGG repeats) alleles in women with primary ovarian insufficiency (n = 254) and early menopause (n = 1,881). The prevalence of the premutation was 2.0% in primary ovarian insufficiency, 0.7% in early menopause, and 0.4% in controls, corresponding to odds ratios of 5.4 (95% confidence interval = 1.7-17.4; P = 0.004) for primary ovarian insufficiency and 2.0 (95% confidence interval = 0.8-5.1; P = 0.12) for early menopause. Combining primary ovarian insufficiency and early menopause gave an odds ratio of 2.4 (95% confidence interval = 1.02-5.8; P = 0.04). Intermediate alleles were not significant risk factors for either early menopause or primary ovarian insufficiency. FMR1 premutations are not as prevalent in women with ovarian insufficiency as previous estimates have suggested, but they still represent a substantial cause of primary ovarian insufficiency and early menopause.

Study Heterogeneity and Estimation of Prevalence of Primary Aldosteronism: A Systematic Review and Meta-Regression Analysis.

PubMed

Käyser, Sabine C; Dekkers, Tanja; Groenewoud, Hans J; van der Wilt, Gert Jan; Carel Bakx, J; van der Wel, Mark C; Hermus, Ad R; Lenders, Jacques W; Deinum, Jaap

2016-07-01

For health care planning and allocation of resources, realistic estimation of the prevalence of primary aldosteronism is necessary. Reported prevalences of primary aldosteronism are highly variable, possibly due to study heterogeneity. Our objective was to identify and explain heterogeneity in studies that aimed to establish the prevalence of primary aldosteronism in hypertensive patients. PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and reference lists from January 1, 1990, to January 31, 2015, were used as data sources. Description of an adult hypertensive patient population with confirmed diagnosis of primary aldosteronism was included in this study. Dual extraction and quality assessment were the forms of data extraction. Thirty-nine studies provided data on 42 510 patients (nine studies, 5896 patients from primary care). Prevalence estimates varied from 3.2% to 12.7% in primary care and from 1% to 29.8% in referral centers. Heterogeneity was too high to establish point estimates (I(2) = 57.6% in primary care; 97.1% in referral centers). Meta-regression analysis showed higher prevalences in studies 1) published after 2000, 2) from Australia, 3) aimed at assessing prevalence of secondary hypertension, 4) that were retrospective, 5) that selected consecutive patients, and 6) not using a screening test. All studies had minor or major flaws. This study demonstrates that it is pointless to claim low or high prevalence of primary aldosteronism based on published reports. Because of the significant impact of a diagnosis of primary aldosteronism on health care resources and the necessary facilities, our findings urge for a prevalence study whose design takes into account the factors identified in the meta-regression analysis.

Estimating Disability Prevalence Among Adults by Body Mass Index: 2003–2009 National Health Interview Survey

PubMed Central

Courtney-Long, Elizabeth; Campbell, Vincent A.; Wethington, Holly R.

2012-01-01

Introduction Obesity is associated with adverse health outcomes in people with and without disabilities; however, little is known about disability prevalence among people who are obese. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence and type of disability among obese adults in the United States. Methods We analyzed pooled data from sample adult modules of the 2003–2009 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to obtain national prevalence estimates of disability, disability type, and obesity by using 30 questions that screened for activity limitations, vision and hearing impairment, and cognitive, movement, and emotional difficulties. We stratified disability prevalence by category of body mass index (BMI, measured as kg/m2): underweight, less than 18.5; normal weight, 18.5 to 24.9; overweight, 25.0 to 29.9; and obese, 30.0 or higher. Results Among the 25.3% of adult men and 24.6% of women in our pooled sample who were obese, 35.2% and 46.9%, respectively, reported a disability. In contrast, 26.7% of men and 26.8% women of normal weight reported a disability. Disability was much higher among obese women than among obese men (46.9% vs 35.2%, P < .001). Movement difficulties were the most common disabilities among obese men and women, affecting 25.3% of men and 37.9% of women. Conclusion This research contributes to the literature on obesity by including disability as a demographic in characterizing people by body mass index. Because of the high prevalence of disability among those who are obese, public health programs should consider the needs of those with disabilities when designing obesity prevention and treatment programs. PMID:23270667

Pain prevalence in instrumental musicians: a systematic review.

PubMed

Silva, Anabela G; Lã, Filipa Mb; Afreixo, Vera

2015-03-01

To investigate current prevalence of pain among different musician groups, sex, and body region. Studies were sought from PubMed, Web of Science, Academic Search Complete, Science Direct, and Scielo. Databases were searched from 1 January 2000 until December 2012. Two reviewers screened titles and abstracts and assessed full reports for potentially eligible studies. One reviewer extracted information on musicians' characteristics, study methods, and study quality. When possible, a meta-analysis of pain prevalence estimates was performed. A total of 18 studies were included in this systematic review. Studies assessed pain prevalence in general and the prevalence of pain affecting playing capacity for different time periods: point, 1-week, 1-year, month, and lifetime prevalence. The prevalence of pain in general, across all groups of musicians and periods of interest over which pain was assessed, varied between 29.0 and 90.0%, whereas the prevalence of pain affecting playing capacity varied between 25.8 and 84.4%. There was a tendency for guitar players to have the highest pain prevalence. The most affected body regions were the low back (9.8 to 66.7%) and neck (9.8 to 48.5%). Pain prevalence is high among musicians, independent of the pain definition and time period used. Health and educational policy makers should become aware of the high prevalence of pain affecting performance practices, so that pain-associated mechanisms are investigated and preventive strategies are tested and implemented.

Basic numerical capacities and prevalence of developmental dyscalculia: the Havana Survey.

PubMed

Reigosa-Crespo, Vivian; Valdés-Sosa, Mitchell; Butterworth, Brian; Estévez, Nancy; Rodríguez, Marisol; Santos, Elsa; Torres, Paul; Suárez, Ramón; Lage, Agustín

2012-01-01

The association of enumeration and number comparison capacities with arithmetical competence was examined in a large sample of children from 2nd to 9th grades. It was found that efficiency on numerical capacities predicted separately more than 25% of the variance in the individual differences on a timed arithmetical test, and this occurred for both younger and older learners. These capacities were also significant predictors of individual variations in an untimed curriculum-based math achievement test and on the teacher scores of math performance over developmental time. Based on these findings, these numerical capacities were used for estimating the prevalence and gender ratio of basic numerical deficits and developmental dyscalculia (DD) over the grade range defined above (N = 11,652 children). The extent to which DD affects the population with poor ability on calculation was also examined. For this purpose, the prevalence and gender ratio of arithmetical dysfluency (AD) were estimated in the same cohort. The estimated prevalence of DD was 3.4%, and the male:female ratio was 4:1. However, the prevalence of AD was almost 3 times as high (9.35%), and no gender differences were found (male:female ratio = 1.07:1). Basic numerical deficits affect 4.54% of school-age population and affect more boys than girls (2.4:1). The differences between the corresponding estimates were highly significant (α < .01). Based on these contrastive findings, it is concluded that DD, defined as a defective sense of numerosity, could be a distinctive disorder that affects only a portion of children with AD.

Accuracy of selected techniques for estimating ice-affected streamflow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, John F.

1991-01-01

This paper compares the accuracy of selected techniques for estimating streamflow during ice-affected periods. The techniques are classified into two categories - subjective and analytical - depending on the degree of judgment required. Discharge measurements have been made at three streamflow-gauging sites in Iowa during the 1987-88 winter and used to established a baseline streamflow record for each site. Using data based on a simulated six-week field-tip schedule, selected techniques are used to estimate discharge during the ice-affected periods. For the subjective techniques, three hydrographers have independently compiled each record. Three measures of performance are used to compare the estimated streamflow records with the baseline streamflow records: the average discharge for the ice-affected period, and the mean and standard deviation of the daily errors. Based on average ranks for three performance measures and the three sites, the analytical and subjective techniques are essentially comparable. For two of the three sites, Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis of variance detects significant differences among the three hydrographers for the subjective methods, indicating that the subjective techniques are less consistent than the analytical techniques. The results suggest analytical techniques may be viable tools for estimating discharge during periods of ice effect, and should be developed further and evaluated for sites across the United States.

Prevalence estimation and familial tendency of common forefoot deformities in Turkey: A survey of 2662 adults.

PubMed

Şaylı, Uğur; Altunok, Elif Çiğdem; Güven, Melih; Akman, Budak; Biros, Jnev; Şaylı, Ayşe

2018-02-19

This survey was designed to evaluate the prevalence estimations of HV, bunionette, hammertoe as well as their relations to shoe wearing and also familial tendency, in Turkey. Two thousand six hundred sixty two volunteers (1615 females and 1047 males) with a mean age of 34.15 ± 14.23 (range; 18 to 96) years were asked to answer the predetermined questionnaire between January and June, 2016. Hallux valgus, hammertoe and bunionette images were provided as references and every adult participant without any known forefoot problems or past forefoot surgery history was asked to rate his/her foot and to respond the questions about family history and shoe wearing habits. Responses were statistically analyzed. The prevalence estimations of hallux valgus, bunionette and hammertoe were calculated as 54.3%, 13.8% and 8.9% and positive family history rates were 53.2%, 61.2% and 56.1%, respectively. All three deformities were more common in females than in males (p < 0.001). Nonetheless the older age group reported significantly higher prevalence rates for only HV (p < 0.001). Likewise, among the three deformities, females reported a higher rate of positive family history only in HV compared to men (p < 0.001). Constricting shoe wear was found to affect HV incidence in women (p < 0.001) and bunionette incidence in both sexes (p < 0.01). This study concludes that forefoot deformities are common with high familial tendency. Hence it is worthwhile to work on molecular genetics and this may enable the anticipation of forthcoming deformities in order to take early action in prevention, in nearly the half of the population. Copyright © 2018 Turkish Association of Orthopaedics and Traumatology. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of Transgender Depends on the "Case" Definition: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Collin, Lindsay; Reisner, Sari L; Tangpricha, Vin; Goodman, Michael

2016-04-01

A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to evaluate how various definitions of transgender affect prevalence estimates. To evaluate the epidemiology of transgender and examine how various definitions of transgender affect prevalence estimates and to compare findings across studies that used different methodologies, in different countries, and over different periods. PubMed, EMBASE, and Medline were searched to identify studies reporting prevalence estimates of transgender in a population. All studies were grouped based on the case definition applied to the numerator. Summary estimates were derived using a random-effects model for total prevalence of transgender and for male-to-female and female-to-male subgroups. Overall and stratum-specific meta-prevalence estimates (mPs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were accompanied by tests for heterogeneity and meta-regressions to assess sources of heterogeneity. The main outcome measure was population prevalence of transgender. Secondary outcomes included gender-specific prevalence estimates for male-to-female and female to male subgroups. Thirty-two studies met the inclusion criteria for systematic review. Of those, 27 studies provided necessary data for a meta-analysis. Overall mP estimates per 100,000 population were 9.2 (95% CI = 4.9-13.6) for surgical or hormonal gender affirmation therapy and 6.8 (95% CI = 4.6-9.1) for transgender-related diagnoses. Of studies assessing self-reported transgender identity, the mP was 871 (95% CI = 519-1,224); however, this result was influenced by a single outlier study. After removal of that study, the mP changed to 355 (95% CI = 144-566). Significant heterogeneity was observed in most analyses. The empirical literature on the prevalence of transgender highlights the importance of adhering to specific case definitions because the results can range by orders of magnitude. Standardized and routine collection of data on transgender status and gender identity is

Incidence and prevalence of Toxoplasma gondii infection in women in France, 1980-2020: model-based estimation.

PubMed

Nogareda, F; Le Strat, Y; Villena, I; De Valk, H; Goulet, V

2014-08-01

Toxoplasmosis is a worldwide zoonosis due to Toxoplasma gondii, a ubiquitous protozoan parasite of warm-blooded animals including humans. In pregnant women, primary infection can cause congenital toxoplasmosis resulting in severe malformations in the newborn. Since 1978, public health authorities in France have implemented a congenital toxoplasmosis prevention programme, including monthly serological screening of all seronegative pregnant women, and treatment in case of seroconversion. However, this programme does not produce systematic surveillance data on incidence and prevalence. Our objective was to estimate the incidence and prevalence of T. gondii infection, and the incidence of seroconversion during pregnancy in women in France. We used a catalytic model to estimate incidence and prevalence of Toxoplasma infection between 1980 and 2020 in women of childbearing age. We used age- and time-specific seroprevalence data obtained from the National Perinatal Surveys (NPS) conducted in 1995, 2003 and 2010. We assumed that incidence depends both on age and calendar time, and can be expressed as the product of two unknown functions. We also estimated incidence of seroconversion during pregnancy in 2010 from the NPS and the National Surveillance of Congenital Toxoplasmosis (ToxoSurv). We combined data of 42208 women aged 15-45 years with serology available from the three NPS. For women aged 30 years the modelled incidence decreased from 7·5/1000 susceptible women in 1980 to 3·5/1000 in 2000. In 2010 the incidence was 2·4/1000. The predicted incidence and prevalence for 2020 was 1·6/1000 and 27%, respectively. The incidence of seroconversion during pregnancy in 2010 was estimated at 2·1/1000 susceptible pregnant women (95% CI 1·3-3·1) from the NPS and 1·9 (95% CI 1·8-2·1) from ToxoSurv. Incidence and prevalence of Toxoplasma infection has decreased markedly during the last 30 years. This decrease may be explained by a lower exposure to the parasite by changes

Estimating CHD prevalence by small area: integrating information from health surveys and area mortality.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2008-03-01

The risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) is strongly linked both to deprivation and ethnicity and so prevalence will vary considerably between areas. Variations in prevalence are important in assessing health care needs and how far CHD service provision and surgical intervention rates match need. This paper uses a regression model of prevalence rates by age, sex, region and ethnicity from the 1999 and 2003 Health Surveys for England to estimate CHD prevalence for 354 English local authority areas. To allow for the impact of social factors on prevalence, survey information on the deprivation quintile in the respondents' micro-area of residence is also used. Allowance is also made for area CHD mortality rates (obtained from aggregated vital statistics data) which are positively correlated with, and hence a proxy for, CHD prevalence rates. An application involves assessment of surgical intervention rates in relation to prevalence at the level of 28 Strategic Health Authorities.

Current and projected prevalence of arterial hypertension in sub-Saharan Africa by sex, age and habitat: an estimate from population studies.

PubMed

Twagirumukiza, Marc; De Bacquer, Dirk; Kips, Jan G; de Backer, Guy; Stichele, Robert Vander; Van Bortel, Luc M

2011-07-01

In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), data on hypertension prevalence in terms of urban or rural and sex difference are lacking, heterogeneous or contradictory. In addition, there are no accurate estimates of hypertension burden. To estimate the age-specific and sex-specific prevalence of arterial hypertension in SSA in urban and rural adult populations. We searched for population studies, conducted from 1998 through 2008 in SSA. We extracted data from selected studies on available prevalences and used a logistic regression model to estimate all age/sex/habitat (urban/rural)/country-specific prevalences for SSA up to 2008 and 2025. On the basis of the United Nations Population Fund data for 2008 and predictions for 2025, we estimated the number of hypertensives in both years. Seventeen studies pertaining to 11 countries were analysed. The overall prevalence rate of hypertension in SSA for 2008 was estimated at 16.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 14.1-20.3], ranging from 10.6% in Ethiopia to 26.9% in Ghana. The estimated prevalence was 13.7% in rural areas, 20.7% in urban areas, 16.8% in males, and 15.7% in women. The total number of hypertensives in SSA was estimated at 75 million (95% CI 65-93 million) in 2008 and at 125.5 million (95% CI 111.0-162.9 million) by 2025. The estimated number of hypertensives in 2008 is nearly four times higher than the last (2005) estimate of the World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa. Prevalences were significantly higher in urban than in rural populations. Population data are lacking in many countries underlining the need for national surveys.

Usher syndrome: definition and estimate of prevalence from two high-risk populations.

PubMed

Boughman, J A; Vernon, M; Shaver, K A

1983-01-01

The Usher Syndrome (US) refers to the combined neurosensory deficits of profound hearing impairment and retinitis pigmentosa. We have obtained information on 600 cases of deaf-blindness from the registry of the Helen Keller National Center for Deaf-Blind Youths and Adults (HKNC). Of these, 54% met the diagnostic criteria of US, although only 23.8% were so diagnosed. More extensive analysis of 189 Usher clients from HKNC showed an excess of males, some variability in audiograms, and wide ophthalmologic variation. Genetic analysis of 113 sibships showed a segregation ratio consistent with recessive inheritance. The Acadian population of Louisiana has a high frequency of US which contributes significantly to the deaf population of the state. Among 48 cases from the Louisiana School for the Deaf, there was an excess of males, more variability in audiograms than expected, and an increased segregation ratio in the 26 informative sibships. Estimates of prevalence obtained using registry data and statistics from Louisiana clearly suggest that the previous estimate of 2.4 per 100,000 is too low for the United States. Recognizing problems with ascertainment, our prevalence estimate of 4.4 per 100,000 is still considered quite conservative.

Prevalence, pathophysiological mechanisms and factors affecting urolithiasis.

PubMed

Khan, Aslam

2018-05-01

The formation of urinary stone, urolithiasis, is one the oldest known disease affecting human throughout different civilizations and times. The exact pathophysiological mechanism of urolithiasis is not yet clear, as these calculi are of various types and too complex for simple understanding. A single theory cannot explain its formation; therefore, different theories are presented in various times for its explanation like free particle, fixed particle, Randall's plaque theory. In addition, various factors and components are identified that play an important role in the formation of these urinary calculi. In this review, composition of kidney stones, its prevalence/incidence, explanation of pathophysiological mechanisms and role of various factors; urinary pH, uric acid, parathyroid hormone, citrate, oxalate, calcium and macromolecules; osteopontin, matrix Gla protein, kidney injury molecules, urinary prothrombin fragment-1, Tamm-Horsfall protein, inter-α-inhibitors, have been discussed in detail.

The prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in women in Morocco, 1995-2016: Model-based estimation and implications for STI surveillance.

PubMed

Bennani, Aziza; El-Kettani, Amina; Hançali, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Alami, Kamal; Youbi, Mohamed; Rowley, Jane; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Smolak, Alex; Taylor, Melanie; Mahiané, Guy; Stover, John; Korenromp, Eline L

2017-01-01

Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on trends in sexually transmitted infections (STI) burden, to inform program planning and resource allocation. We applied the Spectrum STI estimation tool to estimate the prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in adult women in Morocco over 1995 to 2016. The results from the analysis are being used to inform Morocco's national HIV/STI strategy, target setting and program evaluation. Syphilis prevalence levels and trends were fitted through logistic regression to data from surveys in antenatal clinics, women attending family planning clinics and other general adult populations, as available post-1995. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, and for the contribution of higher-risk populations not sampled in surveys. Incidence was inferred from prevalence by adjusting for the average duration of infection with active syphilis. In 2016, active syphilis prevalence was estimated to be 0.56% in women 15 to 49 years of age (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.3%-1.0%), and around 21,675 (10,612-37,198) new syphilis infections have occurred. The analysis shows a steady decline in prevalence from 1995, when the prevalence was estimated to be 1.8% (1.0-3.5%). The decline was consistent with decreasing prevalences observed in TB patients, fishermen and prisoners followed over 2000-2012 through sentinel surveillance, and with a decline since 2003 in national HIV incidence estimated earlier through independent modelling. Periodic population-based surveys allowed Morocco to estimate syphilis prevalence and incidence trends. This first-ever undertaking engaged and focused national stakeholders, and confirmed the still considerable syphilis burden. The latest survey was done in 2012 and so the trends are relatively uncertain after 2012. From 2017 Morocco plans to implement a system to record data from routine antenatal programmatic screening, which should help update and re

Bayesian Estimation of the True Prevalence and of the Diagnostic Test Sensitivity and Specificity of Enteropathogenic Yersinia in Finnish Pig Serum Samples.

PubMed

Vilar, M J; Ranta, J; Virtanen, S; Korkeala, H

2015-01-01

Bayesian analysis was used to estimate the pig's and herd's true prevalence of enteropathogenic Yersinia in serum samples collected from Finnish pig farms. The sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test were also estimated for the commercially available ELISA which is used for antibody detection against enteropathogenic Yersinia. The Bayesian analysis was performed in two steps; the first step estimated the prior true prevalence of enteropathogenic Yersinia with data obtained from a systematic review of the literature. In the second step, data of the apparent prevalence (cross-sectional study data), prior true prevalence (first step), and estimated sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods were used for building the Bayesian model. The true prevalence of Yersinia in slaughter-age pigs was 67.5% (95% PI 63.2-70.9). The true prevalence of Yersinia in sows was 74.0% (95% PI 57.3-82.4). The estimates of sensitivity and specificity values of the ELISA were 79.5% and 96.9%.

Estimating prevalence of functional iron deficiency anaemia in advanced cancer.

PubMed

Neoh, Karen; Stanworth, Simon; Pasricha, Sant-Rayn; Bennett, Michael I

2017-04-01

Anaemia is a common complication of cancer causing symptoms including fatigue. It is also associated with shorter survival. Cancer causes systemic inflammation which interrupts iron metabolism leading to a functional iron deficiency (FID). There are few data on prevalence or aetiology of anaemia in those with advanced cancer. We aimed to establish the prevalence of anaemia and estimate extent of FID anaemia in patients with advanced cancer. All patients with advanced cancer referred to two UK specialist palliative care services over 1 year were identified. Demographic and clinical data were linked with routinely collected haematological and biochemical profiles. We assessed the numbers of patients with abnormal values for haemoglobin, % hypochromic red cells (>5% indicates iron-restricted erythropoiesis) and CRP (>10 indicates systemic inflammation). We judged that FID anaemia was likely when patients had all three abnormalities and ferritin 30-800 ng/ml. Out of 2416 patients, 1797 had a cancer diagnosis and laboratory data available. Mean haemoglobin was 116 g/l. Sixty-three percent of patients were anaemic, mild 25%, moderate 35% and severe 3%. Women had significantly higher mean haemoglobin than men, and there was wide variation in anaemia prevalence across tumour sites. Thirty-nine percent of patients who had all four parameters checked met our criteria for FID anaemia. There were significant relationships between haemoglobin, % hypochromic red cells and CRP (p = 0.0001). Anaemia was common in this population, and we estimate this was caused by FID in 66% of anaemic patients. Further research is needed to validate our diagnostic criteria before this approach can be used in clinical practice.

The 2005 Workbook: an improved tool for estimating HIV prevalence in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics.

PubMed

Lyerla, R; Gouws, E; García-Calleja, J M; Zaniewski, E

2006-06-01

This paper describes improvements and updates to an established approach to making epidemiological estimates of HIV prevalence in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics. The structure of the software used to make estimates is briefly described, with particular attention to changes and improvements. The approach focuses on identifying populations which, through their behaviour, are at high risk of infection with HIV or who are exposed through the risk behaviour of their sexual partners. Estimates of size and HIV prevalence of these populations allow the total number of HIV infected people in a country or region to be estimated. Major changes in the software focus on the move away from short term projections and towards developing an epidemiological curve that more accurately represents the change in prevalence of HIV over time. The software continues to provide an output file for use in the Spectrum software so as to estimate the demographic impact of HIV infection at country level.

Reliability of Nationwide Prevalence Estimates of Dementia: A Critical Appraisal Based on Brazilian Surveys

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Background The nationwide dementia prevalence is usually calculated by applying the results of local surveys to countries’ populations. To evaluate the reliability of such estimations in developing countries, we chose Brazil as an example. We carried out a systematic review of dementia surveys, ascertained their risk of bias, and present the best estimate of occurrence of dementia in Brazil. Methods and Findings We carried out an electronic search of PubMed, Latin-American databases, and a Brazilian thesis database for surveys focusing on dementia prevalence in Brazil. The systematic review was registered at PROSPERO (CRD42014008815). Among the 35 studies found, 15 analyzed population-based random samples. However, most of them utilized inadequate criteria for diagnostics. Six studies without these limitations were further analyzed to assess the risk of selection, attrition, outcome and population bias as well as several statistical issues. All the studies presented moderate or high risk of bias in at least two domains due to the following features: high non-response, inaccurate cut-offs, and doubtful accuracy of the examiners. Two studies had limited external validity due to high rates of illiteracy or low income. The three studies with adequate generalizability and the lowest risk of bias presented a prevalence of dementia between 7.1% and 8.3% among subjects aged 65 years and older. However, after adjustment for accuracy of screening, the best available evidence points towards a figure between 15.2% and 16.3%. Conclusions The risk of bias may strongly limit the generalizability of dementia prevalence estimates in developing countries. Extrapolations that have already been made for Brazil and Latin America were based on a prevalence that should have been adjusted for screening accuracy or not used at all due to severe bias. Similar evaluations regarding other developing countries are needed in order to verify the scope of these limitations. PMID:26131563

Recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women and all women in sub-Saharan Africa: implications for HIV estimates.

PubMed

Eaton, Jeffrey W; Rehle, Thomas M; Jooste, Sean; Nkambule, Rejoice; Kim, Andrea A; Mahy, Mary; Hallett, Timothy B

2014-11-01

National population-wide HIV prevalence and incidence trends in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are indirectly estimated using HIV prevalence measured among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics (ANC), among other data. We evaluated whether recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women are representative of general population trends. Serial population-based household surveys in 13 SSA countries. We calculated HIV prevalence trends among all women aged 15-49 years and currently pregnant women between surveys conducted from 2003 to 2008 (period 1) and 2009 to 2012 (period 2). Log-binomial regression was used to test for a difference in prevalence trend between the two groups. Prevalence among pregnant women was age-standardized to represent the age distribution of all women. Pooling data for all countries, HIV prevalence declined among pregnant women from 6.5 [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.3-7.9%] to 5.3% (95% CI 4.2-6.6%) between periods 1 and 2, whereas it remained unchanged among all women at 8.4% (95% CI 8.0-8.9%) in period 1 and 8.3% (95% CI 7.9-8.8%) in period 2. Prevalence declined by 18% (95% CI -9-38%) more in pregnant women than nonpregnant women. Estimates were similar in Western, Eastern, and Southern regions of SSA; none were statistically significant (P>0.05). HIV prevalence decreased significantly among women aged 15-24 years while increasing significantly among women 35-49 years, who represented 29% of women but only 15% of pregnant women. Age-standardization of prevalence in pregnant women did not reconcile the discrepant trends because at older ages prevalence was lower among pregnant women than nonpregnant women. As HIV prevalence in SSA has shifted toward older, less-fertile women, HIV prevalence among pregnant women has declined more rapidly than prevalence in women overall. Interpretation of ANC prevalence data to inform national HIV estimates should account for both age-specific fertility patterns and HIV-related sub-fertility.

Comparison of type 2 diabetes prevalence estimates in Saudi Arabia from a validated Markov model against the International Diabetes Federation and other modelling studies

PubMed Central

Al-Quwaidhi, Abdulkareem J.; Pearce, Mark S.; Sobngwi, Eugene; Critchley, Julia A.; O’Flaherty, Martin

2014-01-01

Aims To compare the estimates and projections of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) prevalence in Saudi Arabia from a validated Markov model against other modelling estimates, such as those produced by the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) Diabetes Atlas and the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) project. Methods A discrete-state Markov model was developed and validated that integrates data on population, obesity and smoking prevalence trends in adult Saudis aged ≥25 years to estimate the trends in T2DM prevalence (annually from 1992 to 2022). The model was validated by comparing the age- and sex-specific prevalence estimates against a national survey conducted in 2005. Results Prevalence estimates from this new Markov model were consistent with the 2005 national survey and very similar to the GBD study estimates. Prevalence in men and women in 2000 was estimated by the GBD model respectively at 17.5% and 17.7%, compared to 17.7% and 16.4% in this study. The IDF estimates of the total diabetes prevalence were considerably lower at 16.7% in 2011 and 20.8% in 2030, compared with 29.2% in 2011 and 44.1% in 2022 in this study. Conclusion In contrast to other modelling studies, both the Saudi IMPACT Diabetes Forecast Model and the GBD model directly incorporated the trends in obesity prevalence and/or body mass index (BMI) to inform T2DM prevalence estimates. It appears that such a direct incorporation of obesity trends in modelling studies results in higher estimates of the future prevalence of T2DM, at least in countries where obesity has been rapidly increasing. PMID:24447810

Anaemia prevalence over time in Indonesia: estimates from the 1997, 2000, and 2008 Indonesia Family Life Surveys.

PubMed

Barkley, Jonathan S; Kendrick, Katherine L; Codling, Karen; Muslimatun, Siti; Pachón, Helena

2015-01-01

To summarize anaemia prevalence data for children, women, and men using data from the second, third and fourth waves of the Indonesia Family Life Surveys (IFLS), which were conducted in 1997/8, 2000, and 2007/8, respectively. Anaemia prevalence was determined for children 0 to 5 years, 5 to 12 years, 12 to 15 years, non-pregnant women at least 15 years, pregnant women at least 15 years, and men at least 15 years, based on haemoglobin adjusted for altitude and smoking status. Compared with 1997/8 estimates, anaemia prevalence estimates were lower in 2007/8 for all groups, with the greatest relative decline occurring in children 5 to 12 years (25.4%). Trend analysis found anaemia significantly declined over the survey years for all groups (χ² p=0.005 for pregnant women, χ² p<0.001 for all other groups). IFLS anaemia estimates for different population groups decreased between 1997/8 and 2007/8 and were consistent with estimates from Southeast Asia, and with other studies conducted in Indonesia. While the prevalence of anaemia consistently decreased in all groups, anaemia remains a moderate public health problem for children 0 to 5 years, children 5 to 12 years, and non-pregnant and pregnant women.

Prevalence Estimation of Protected Health Information in Swedish Clinical Text.

PubMed

Henriksson, Aron; Kvist, Maria; Dalianis, Hercules

2017-01-01

Obscuring protected health information (PHI) in the clinical text of health records facilitates the secondary use of healthcare data in a privacy-preserving manner. Although automatic de-identification of clinical text using machine learning holds much promise, little is known about the relative prevalence of PHI in different types of clinical text and whether there is a need for domain adaptation when learning predictive models from one particular domain and applying it to another. In this study, we address these questions by training a predictive model and using it to estimate the prevalence of PHI in clinical text written (1) in different clinical specialties, (2) in different types of notes (i.e., under different headings), and (3) by persons in different professional roles. It is demonstrated that the overall PHI density is 1.57%; however, substantial differences exist across domains.

Subgroup-specific effects of questionnaire wording on population-based estimates of mammography prevalence.

PubMed Central

Siegel, P Z; Qualters, J R; Mowery, P D; Campostrini, S; Leutzinger, C; McQueen, D V

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This study investigated whether an apparent downturn in prevalence rates of mammography use reported in the 1992 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) questionnaire resulted from a change in questionnaire wording. METHODS: In a pretest-posttest design (1990-1991 vs 1992), piecewise linear regression analyses were based on monthly prevalence estimates of mammography use among female BRFSS respondents 40 years or older. RESULTS: Self-reported mammography use was lower by 3.5 percentage points (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.5, 5.5) overall--and lower by 13.6 percentage points (95% CI = 2.6, 24.6) among Black women with less than a high school education--when predicted from 1992 data than when predicted from 1990-1991 data. CONCLUSIONS: A change in questionnaire wording in the BRFSS caused demographic-specific effects in population-based estimates of mammography use. PMID:11344896

Estimated amount of 24-hour urine sodium excretion is positively correlated with stomach and breast cancer prevalence in Korea.

PubMed

Park, Jung Hwan; Kim, Yong Chul; Koo, Ho Seok; Oh, Se Won; Kim, Suhnggwon; Chin, Ho Jun

2014-09-01

Stomach cancer is one of the most common cancers in Korea. The aim of this study was to identify the association between the prevalence of cancer, particularly stomach cancer, and the amount of 24-hr urine sodium excretion estimated from spot urine specimens. The study included 19,083 subjects who took part in the Korean National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey between 2009 and 2011. The total amount of urine sodium excreted in a 24-hr period was estimated by using two equations based on the values for spot urine sodium and creatinine. In subjects who had an estimated 24-hr urine sodium excretion of more than two standard deviations above the mean (group 2), the prevalence of stomach cancer was higher than in subjects with lower 24-hr sodium excretion (group 1). By using the Tanaka equation to estimate it, the prevalence of stomach cancer was 0.6% (114/18,331) in group 1, whereas it was 1.6% (9/568) in group 2 (P=0.006). By using the Korean equation, the prevalence was 0.6% (115/18,392) in group 1, and 1.6% in group 2 (8/507) (P=0.010). By using the Tanaka equation, breast cancer in women is more prevalent in group 2 (1.9%, 6/324) than group 1 (0.8%, 78/9,985, P=0.039). Higher salt intake, as defined by the estimated amount of 24-hr urine sodium excretion, is positively correlated with a higher prevalence of stomach or breast cancer in the Korean population.

Prevalence scaling: applications to an intelligent workstation for the diagnosis of breast cancer.

PubMed

Horsch, Karla; Giger, Maryellen L; Metz, Charles E

2008-11-01

Our goal was to investigate the effects of changes that the prevalence of cancer in a population have on the probability of malignancy (PM) output and an optimal combination of a true-positive fraction (TPF) and a false-positive fraction (FPF) of a mammographic and sonographic automatic classifier for the diagnosis of breast cancer. We investigate how a prevalence-scaling transformation that is used to change the prevalence inherent in the computer estimates of the PM affects the numerical and histographic output of a previously developed multimodality intelligent workstation. Using Bayes' rule and the binormal model, we study how changes in the prevalence of cancer in the diagnostic breast population affect our computer classifiers' optimal operating points, as defined by maximizing the expected utility. Prevalence scaling affects the threshold at which a particular TPF and FPF pair is achieved. Tables giving the thresholds on the scaled PM estimates that result in particular pairs of TPF and FPF are presented. Histograms of PMs scaled to reflect clinically relevant prevalence values differ greatly from histograms of laboratory-designed PMs. The optimal pair (TPF, FPF) of our lower performing mammographic classifier is more sensitive to changes in clinical prevalence than that of our higher performing sonographic classifier. Prevalence scaling can be used to change computer PM output to reflect clinically more appropriate prevalence. Relatively small changes in clinical prevalence can have large effects on the computer classifier's optimal operating point.

The prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in women in Morocco, 1995-2016: Model-based estimation and implications for STI surveillance

PubMed Central

Bennani, Aziza; El-Kettani, Amina; Hançali, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Alami, Kamal; Youbi, Mohamed; Rowley, Jane; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Smolak, Alex; Taylor, Melanie; Mahiané, Guy; Stover, John

2017-01-01

Background Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on trends in sexually transmitted infections (STI) burden, to inform program planning and resource allocation. We applied the Spectrum STI estimation tool to estimate the prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in adult women in Morocco over 1995 to 2016. The results from the analysis are being used to inform Morocco’s national HIV/STI strategy, target setting and program evaluation. Methods Syphilis prevalence levels and trends were fitted through logistic regression to data from surveys in antenatal clinics, women attending family planning clinics and other general adult populations, as available post-1995. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, and for the contribution of higher-risk populations not sampled in surveys. Incidence was inferred from prevalence by adjusting for the average duration of infection with active syphilis. Results In 2016, active syphilis prevalence was estimated to be 0.56% in women 15 to 49 years of age (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.3%-1.0%), and around 21,675 (10,612–37,198) new syphilis infections have occurred. The analysis shows a steady decline in prevalence from 1995, when the prevalence was estimated to be 1.8% (1.0–3.5%). The decline was consistent with decreasing prevalences observed in TB patients, fishermen and prisoners followed over 2000–2012 through sentinel surveillance, and with a decline since 2003 in national HIV incidence estimated earlier through independent modelling. Conclusions Periodic population-based surveys allowed Morocco to estimate syphilis prevalence and incidence trends. This first-ever undertaking engaged and focused national stakeholders, and confirmed the still considerable syphilis burden. The latest survey was done in 2012 and so the trends are relatively uncertain after 2012. From 2017 Morocco plans to implement a system to record data from routine antenatal

An empirical comparison of isolate-based and sample-based definitions of antimicrobial resistance and their effect on estimates of prevalence.

PubMed

Humphry, R W; Evans, J; Webster, C; Tongue, S C; Innocent, G T; Gunn, G J

2018-02-01

considerably lower in the historic study had the MIC method been used. Finally we conclude that there is no single way of defining a sample as resistant to an antimicrobial agent. The method used greatly affects the estimated prevalence of antimicrobial resistance in a sampled population of animals, thus potentially resulting in misleading results. Comparing methods on the same samples allows us to re-estimate the prevalence from other studies, had other methods for determining resistance been used. The results of this study highlight the importance of establishing what the most appropriate measure of antimicrobial resistance is, for the proposed purpose of the results. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating ice-affected streamflow by extended Kalman filtering

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holtschlag, D.J.; Grewal, M.S.

1998-01-01

An extended Kalman filter was developed to automate the real-time estimation of ice-affected streamflow on the basis of routine measurements of stream stage and air temperature and on the relation between stage and streamflow during open-water (ice-free) conditions. The filter accommodates three dynamic modes of ice effects: sudden formation/ablation, stable ice conditions, and eventual elimination. The utility of the filter was evaluated by applying it to historical data from two long-term streamflow-gauging stations, St. John River at Dickey, Maine and Platte River at North Bend, Nebr. Results indicate that the filter was stable and that parameters converged for both stations, producing streamflow estimates that are highly correlated with published values. For the Maine station, logarithms of estimated streamflows are within 8% of the logarithms of published values 87.2% of the time during periods of ice effects and within 15% 96.6% of the time. Similarly, for the Nebraska station, logarithms of estimated streamflows are within 8% of the logarithms of published values 90.7% of the time and within 15% 97.7% of the time. In addition, the correlation between temporal updates and published streamflows on days of direct measurements at the Maine station was 0.777 and 0.998 for ice-affected and open-water periods, respectively; for the Nebraska station, corresponding correlations were 0.864 and 0.997.

Prevalence of oropharyngeal dysphagia in Parkinson's disease: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kalf, J G; de Swart, B J M; Bloem, B R; Munneke, M

2012-05-01

Dysphagia is a potentially harmful feature, also in Parkinson's disease (PD). As published prevalence rates vary widely, we aimed to estimate the prevalence of oropharyngeal dysphagia in PD in a meta-analysis. We conducted a systematic literature search in February 2011 and two independent reviewers selected the papers. We computed the estimates of the pooled prevalence weighted by sample size. Twelve studies were suitable for calculating prevalence rates. Ten studies provided an estimate based on subjective outcomes, which proved statistically heterogeneous (p < 0.001), with a pooled prevalence estimate with random effect analysis of 35% (95% CI 28-41). Four studies provided an estimate based on objective measurements, which were statistically homogeneous (p = 0.23), with a pooled prevalence estimate of 82% (95% CI 77-87). In controls the pooled subjective prevalence was 9% (95% CI 2-17), while the pooled objective prevalence was 23% (95% CI 13-32). The pooled relative risk was 3.2 for both subjective outcomes (95% CI 2.32-4.41) and objective outcomes (95% CI 2.08-4.98). Clinical heterogeneity between studies was chiefly explained by differences in disease severity. Subjective dysphagia occurs in one third of community-dwelling PD patients. Objectively measured dysphagia rates were much higher, with 4 out of 5 patients being affected. This suggests that dysphagia is common in PD, but patients do not always report swallowing difficulties unless asked. This underreporting calls for a proactive clinical approach to dysphagia, particularly in light of the serious clinical consequences. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Anxiety and dysthymia: local prevalence estimates based on drug prescriptions by general practitioners in Turin (Italy).

PubMed

Mamo, C; Farina, E; Cicio, R; Fanì, M

2014-01-01

The aim of the study was to obtain local estimates of the prevalence of anxiety and dysthymic disorders among attendees of primary care at local level, useful to pursue a better management of the health care services. The study was conducted in the Health District no. 2 of Turin (industrial town in northwest Italy). The criteria for identification of cases were based on the drugs prescriptions made by general practitioners (GPs), selected in order to assure high specificity. The study involved 86 physicians (with 87,885 attendees). As expected, the crude and standardized prevalences were higher in women (anxiety: 2.9% vs 1.3% in men; dysthymia: 3.8% vs 1.7% in men), with a peak in women aged over 75 yrs (anxiety: 4.8%; dysthymia: 6.2%). In comparison to male GPs, female GPs had an higher prevalence of patients with anxious disorders, whereas the prevalences of dysthymia were similar. Despite the discussed limitations, the used methodology allows to obtain sufficiently reliable estimates of prevalence of common mental disorders at local level, providing informations useful for organizing the primary care in the Health district.

Estimating correlation of prevalence at two locations in the farm-to-table continuum using qualitative test data.

PubMed

Williams, Michael S; Ebel, Eric D

2017-03-20

The presence or absence of contaminants in food samples changes as a commodity moves along the farm-to-table continuum. Interest lies in the degree to which the prevalence (i.e., infected animals or contaminated sample units) at one location in the continuum, as measured by the proportion of test-positive samples, is correlated with the prevalence at a location later in the continuum. If prevalence of a contaminant at one location in the continuum is strongly correlated with the prevalence of the contaminant later in the continuum, then the effect of changes in contamination on overall food safety can be better understood. Pearson's correlation coefficient is one of the simplest metrics of association between two measurements of prevalence but it is biased when data consisting of presence/absence testing results are used to directly estimate the correlation. This study demonstrates the potential magnitude of this bias and explores the utility of three methods for unbiased estimation of the degree of correlation in prevalence. An example, based on testing broiler chicken carcasses for Salmonella at re-hang and post-chill, is used to demonstrate the methods. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Prevalence and associated risk factors of violence against conflict–affected female adolescents: a multi–country, cross–sectional study

PubMed Central

Stark, Lindsay; Asghar, Khudejha; Yu, Gary; Bora, Caroline; Baysa, Asham Assazenew; Falb, Kathryn L

2017-01-01

Background Over half of displaced civilians in humanitarian emergencies are children, and these settings pose unique threats to children’s safety with long–lasting consequences. Our study broadens the limited evidence on violence against adolescent girls in emergencies by estimating prevalence and predictors of violence among adolescent girls aged 13–14 in South Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and aged 13–19 in refugee camps in the Benishangul–Gumuz region of Ethiopia. Methods Survey data were collected from a sample of 1296 adolescent girls using Computer–Assisted Personal Interview and Audio Computer–Assisted Self–Interview programming. Predictors of violence were modeled using multivariable logistic regression. Results The majority of adolescent girls (51.62%) reported experiencing at least one form of violence victimization in the previous 12 months: 31.78% reported being hit or beaten, 36.79% reported being screamed at loudly or aggressively, and 26.67% experienced unwanted sexual touching, forced sex, and/or sexual coercion. Across both countries, ever having a boyfriend and living with an intimate partner were strong predictors of violence. Fewer years of education completed in DRC, and young age in Ethiopia, were also associated with reported victimization. Conclusions Prevalence of violence against adolescent girls is high in these two conflict–affected contexts. Findings indicate a need for programs targeting younger populations, broader efforts to address different forms of victimization, and increased recognition of intimate partners and caregivers as perpetrators of violence in conflict–affected settings. PMID:28607672

Respondent-Driven Sampling of Injection Drug Users in Two U.S.–Mexico Border Cities: Recruitment Dynamics and Impact on Estimates of HIV and Syphilis Prevalence

PubMed Central

Brouwer, Kimberly C.; Firestone Cruz, Michelle A.; Ramos, Rebeca; Ramos, Maria Elena; Lozada, Remedios M.; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Strathdee, Steffanie A.

2006-01-01

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS), a chain referral sampling approach, is increasingly used to recruit participants from hard-to-reach populations, such as injection drug users (IDUs). Using RDS, we recruited IDUs in Tijuana and Ciudad (Cd.) Juárez, two Mexican cities bordering San Diego, CA and El Paso, TX, respectively, and compared recruitment dynamics, reported network size, and estimates of HIV and syphilis prevalence. Between February and April 2005, we used RDS to recruit IDUs in Tijuana (15 seeds, 207 recruits) and Cd. Juárez (9 seeds, 197 recruits), Mexico for a cross-sectional study of behavioral and contextual factors associated with HIV, HCV and syphilis infections. All subjects provided informed consent, an anonymous interview, and a venous blood sample for serologic testing of HIV, HCV, HBV (Cd. Juárez only) and syphilis antibody. Log-linear models were used to analyze the association between the state of the recruiter and that of the recruitee in the referral chains, and population estimates of the presence of syphilis antibody were obtained, correcting for biased sampling using RDS-based estimators. Sampling of the targeted 200 recruits per city was achieved rapidly (2 months in Tijuana, 2 weeks in Cd. Juárez). After excluding seeds and missing data, the sample prevalence of HCV, HIV and syphilis were 96.6, 1.9 and 13.5% respectively in Tijuana, and 95.3, 4.1, and 2.7% respectively in Cd. Juárez (where HBV prevalence was 84.7%). Syphilis cases were clustered in recruitment trees. RDS-corrected estimates of syphilis antibody prevalence ranged from 12.8 to 26.8% in Tijuana and from 2.9 to 15.6% in Ciudad Juárez, depending on how recruitment patterns were modeled, and assumptions about how network size affected an individual’s probability of being included in the sample. RDS was an effective method to rapidly recruit IDUs in these cities. Although the frequency of HIV was low, syphilis prevalence was high, particularly in Tijuana. RDS

The Spatial Distribution of Adult Obesity Prevalence in Denver County, Colorado: An Empirical Bayes Approach to Adjust EHR-Derived Small Area Estimates.

PubMed

Tabano, David C; Bol, Kirk; Newcomer, Sophia R; Barrow, Jennifer C; Daley, Matthew F

2017-12-06

Measuring obesity prevalence across geographic areas should account for environmental and socioeconomic factors that contribute to spatial autocorrelation, the dependency of values in estimates across neighboring areas, to mitigate the bias in measures and risk of type I errors in hypothesis testing. Dependency among observations across geographic areas violates statistical independence assumptions and may result in biased estimates. Empirical Bayes (EB) estimators reduce the variability of estimates with spatial autocorrelation, which limits the overall mean square-error and controls for sample bias. Using the Colorado Body Mass Index (BMI) Monitoring System, we modeled the spatial autocorrelation of adult (≥ 18 years old) obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg m 2 ) measurements using patient-level electronic health record data from encounters between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2011. Obesity prevalence was estimated among census tracts with >=10 observations in Denver County census tracts during the study period. We calculated the Moran's I statistic to test for spatial autocorrelation across census tracts, and mapped crude and EB obesity prevalence across geographic areas. In Denver County, there were 143 census tracts with 10 or more observations, representing a total of 97,710 adults with a valid BMI. The crude obesity prevalence for adults in Denver County was 29.8 percent (95% CI 28.4-31.1%) and ranged from 12.8 to 45.2 percent across individual census tracts. EB obesity prevalence was 30.2 percent (95% CI 28.9-31.5%) and ranged from 15.3 to 44.3 percent across census tracts. Statistical tests using the Moran's I statistic suggest adult obesity prevalence in Denver County was distributed in a non-random pattern. Clusters of EB obesity estimates were highly significant (alpha=0.05) in neighboring census tracts. Concentrations of obesity estimates were primarily in the west and north in Denver County. Statistical tests reveal adult obesity prevalence exhibit spatial

Prevalence of driving with blood drug concentrations above proposed new legal limits in Norway: estimations based on drug concentrations in oral fluid.

PubMed

Gjerde, Hallvard; Normann, Per T; Christophersen, Asbjørg S; Mørland, Jørg

2011-07-15

To estimate the prevalence of driving with blood drug concentrations above the recently proposed Norwegian legal limits for drugged driving in random traffic. The results from a roadside survey of 10,816 drivers was used as basis for the estimation, and the most prevalent drugs were included. Three approaches were used to estimate the prevalence of drug concentrations above the proposed legal limits in blood based on drug concentrations in oral fluid: comparison with drug concentrations observed in oral fluid and blood in pharmacokinetic studies, estimating the prevalence of drug concentrations in blood by calculating the prevalence of drug concentrations in oral fluid that were larger than the limit in blood multiplied with mean oral fluid/blood ratios, and a mathematical simulation mimicking the relationship between drug concentration distributions in blood and oral fluid for populations of drug users. In total, alcohol or drugs were detected in 5.7% of the samples of oral fluid from drivers in normal traffic; 3.8% (n=410) were positive for the drugs that we included in the assessment. The estimation of drug concentrations in blood suggested that about 1.5% had concentrations above the proposed legal limits in blood for the studied drugs, which is about 40% of those who were positive for the drugs in oral fluid. The estimated prevalence of driving with concentrations of psychoactive drugs in blood above the proposed legal limits was for illegal drugs 0.4% and for medicinal drugs 1.1%. These may be regarded as minimum estimates as some drugs were not included in the assessment. These prevalences are higher than the prevalence of driving with blood alcohol concentrations above the legal limit of 0.2g/kg in Norway. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Constraints to estimating the prevalence of trypanosome infections in East African zebu cattle.

PubMed

Cox, Andrew P; Tosas, Olga; Tilley, Aimee; Picozzi, Kim; Coleman, Paul; Hide, Geoff; Welburn, Susan C

2010-09-06

In East Africa, animal trypanosomiasis is caused by many tsetse transmitted protozoan parasites including Trypanosoma vivax, T. congolense and subspecies of T. brucei s.l. (T. b. brucei and zoonotic human infective T. b. rhodesiense) that may co-circulate in domestic and wild animals. Accurate species-specific prevalence measurements of these parasites in animal populations are complicated by mixed infections of trypanosomes within individual hosts, low parasite densities and difficulties in conducting field studies. Many Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) based diagnostic tools are available to characterise and quantify infection in animals. These are important for assessing the contribution of infections in animal reservoirs and the risk posed to humans from zoonotic trypanosome species. New matrices for DNA capture have simplified large scale field PCR analyses but few studies have examined the impact of these techniques on prevalence estimations. The Whatman FTA matrix has been evaluated using a random sample of 35 village zebu cattle from a population naturally exposed to trypanosome infection. Using a generic trypanosome-specific PCR, prevalence was systematically evaluated. Multiple PCR samples taken from single FTA cards demonstrated that a single punch from an FTA card is not sufficient to confirm the infectivity status of an individual animal as parasite DNA is unevenly distributed across the card. At low parasite densities in the host, this stochastic sampling effect results in underestimation of prevalence based on single punch PCR testing. Repeated testing increased the estimated prevalence of all Trypanosoma spp. from 9.7% to 86%. Using repeat testing, a very high prevalence of pathogenic trypanosomes was detected in these local village cattle: T. brucei (34.3%), T. congolense (42.9%) and T. vivax (22.9%). These results show that, despite the convenience of Whatman FTA cards and specific PCR based detection tools, the chronically low parasitaemias in

Combination of five diagnostic tests to estimate the prevalence of hookworm infection among school-aged children from a rural area of colombia.

PubMed

Barreto, Rafael E; Narváez, Javier; Sepúlveda, Natalia A; Velásquez, Fabián C; Díaz, Sandra C; López, Myriam Consuelo; Reyes, Patricia; Moncada, Ligia I

2017-09-01

Public health programs for the control of soil-transmitted helminthiases require valid diagnostic tests for surveillance and parasitic control evaluation. However, there is currently no agreement about what test should be used as a gold standard for the diagnosis of hookworm infection. Still, in presence of concurrent data for multiple tests it is possible to use statistical models to estimate measures of test performance and prevalence. The aim of this study was to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of five parallel tests (direct microscopic examination, Kato-Katz, Harada-Mori, modified Ritchie-Frick, and culture in agar plate) to detect hookworm infections in a sample of school-aged children from a rural area in Colombia. We used both, a frequentist approach, and Bayesian latent class models to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of five tests for hookworm detection, and to estimate the prevalence of hookworm infection in absence of a Gold Standard. The Kato-Katz and agar plate methods had an overall agreement of 95% and kappa coefficient of 0.76. Different models estimated a sensitivity between 76% and 92% for the agar plate technique, and 52% to 87% for the Kato-Katz technique. The other tests had lower sensitivity. All tests had specificity between 95% and 98%. The prevalence estimated by the Kato-Katz and Agar plate methods for different subpopulations varied between 10% and 14%, and was consistent with the prevalence estimated from the combination of all tests. The Harada-Mori, Ritchie-Frick and direct examination techniques resulted in lower and disparate prevalence estimates. Bayesian approaches assuming imperfect specificity resulted in lower prevalence estimates than the frequentist approach. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Calculation of prevalence estimates through differential equations: application to stroke-related disability.

PubMed

Mar, Javier; Sainz-Ezkerra, María; Moler-Cuiral, Jose Antonio

2008-01-01

Neurological diseases now make up 6.3% of the global burden of disease mainly because they cause disability. To assess disability, prevalence estimates are needed. The objective of this study is to apply a method based on differential equations to calculate the prevalence of stroke-related disability. On the basis of a flow diagram, a set of differential equations for each age group was constructed. The linear system was solved analytically and numerically. The parameters of the system were obtained from the literature. The model was validated and calibrated by comparison with previous results. The stroke prevalence rate per 100,000 men was 828, and the rate for stroke-related disability was 331. The rates steadily rose with age, but the group between the ages of 65 and 74 years had the highest total number of individuals. Differential equations are useful to represent the natural history of neurological diseases and to make possible the calculation of the prevalence for the various states of disability. In our experience, when compared with the results obtained by Markov models, the benefit of the continuous use of time outweighs the mathematical requirements of our model. (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Epidemiology of Inherited Epidermolysis Bullosa Based on Incidence and Prevalence Estimates From the National Epidermolysis Bullosa Registry.

PubMed

Fine, Jo-David

2016-11-01

Accurate estimation of the incidence and prevalence of each subtype of epidermolysis bullosa (EB) is essential before clinical trials can be designed and sufficient funding allocated by government agencies and third-party insurers for the care of these individuals. To determine the incidence and prevalence of inherited EB stratified by subtype in the United States during a 16-year period. Prospective cross-sectional and longitudinal study. Data were obtained from 3271 patients consecutively enrolled in the National Epidermolysis Bullosa Registry from January 1, 1986, through December 31, 2002, using a detailed instrument created with the assistance of the National Institutes of Health. Analyses were performed in January 1999 and April 2015. Participants were patients of all ages with EB. Extensive clinical and laboratory data were collected on patients who were subclassified and serially revalidated based on published diagnostic recommendations by an international panel of experts. Pertinent to this report, estimates were made of the incidence and prevalence during 2 time frames. During the first 5 years of funding of the registry, the overall incidence and prevalence of inherited EB were 19.60 and 8.22 per 1 million live births, respectively. When reassessed over the entire 16 years of the study, the prevalence rose to 11.07, whereas the overall incidence remained unchanged at 19.57 cases. Changes were also observed within some disease subsets as increased numbers of patients were identified, recruited, followed up longitudinally, and resubclassified as needed over time. For example, in 2002, the prevalence of EBS overall and localized EBS had increased considerably by 30.4% and 25.5%, respectively, whereas the prevalence of generalized intermediate EBS declined by 76.7% as a result of later subclassification of some of those patients into other subtypes. In contrast, no significant change was noted in the overall prevalence of JEB or generalized severe JEB

PREVALENCE OF MENTAL AND BEHAVIOURAL DISORDERS IN INDIA : A META-ANALYSIS

PubMed Central

Reddy, Venkataswamy M.; Chandrashekar, C.R.

1998-01-01

A meta-analysis of 13 psychiatric epidemiological studies consisting of 33572 persons in 6550 families yielded an estimate prevalence rate of 58.2 per thousand population. Organic psychosis (prevalence rate 0.4), schizophrenia (2.7), affective disorders (12.3) contributed a rate of 15.4 for psychoses. The prevalence rate for mental retardation (6.9), epilepsy (4.4), neurotic disorders (20.7), alcohol/drug addiction (6.9; and miscellaneous group (3.9) were estimated. Higher prevalence for urban sector, females, age group of 35-44, married/widowers/divorced, lower socioeconomic status, and nuclear family members were confirmed. Epilepsy and hysteria were found significantly high in rural communities. Manic affective psychosis, mental retardation, alcohol/ drug addiction and personality disorders were significantly high in males. The findings indicated that there are 1.5 crore people suffering from severe mental disorders (psychoses) in India, and that severe diseases have higher representation at specialized as well as general hospital clinics. Among other things, the results aid in conducting morbidity surveys by more methodological approach. PMID:21494462

[Asthma prevalence estimated using a standard algorithm based on electronic health data in various areas of Italy].

PubMed

Tessari, Roberta; Migliore, Enrica; Balzi, Daniela; Barchielli, Alessandro; Canova, Cristina; Faustini, Annunziata; Galassi, Claudia; Simonato, Lorenzo

2008-01-01

development of an algorithm to estimate asthma prevalence by record linkage of different health databases: causes of death (CM), hospital discharges (SDO), drug prescriptions archive (PF), health tax exemptions (ET) in three Italian areas. Venezia AULSS 12, city of Torino, Firenze ASL 10. residents aged between 0 and 34 years in the above three centres in the three year period 2002-2004, for a total of 661,275 inhabitants on 30 June 2003. annual crude and standardized prevalence (per 100 inhabitants) with 95% confidence intervals by gender and age groups (0-14, 15-34, total: 0-34 years). for each year of interest, we selected the following: cases with asthma as primary cause of death from CM; all persons discharged from hospitals with diagnosis (primary or secondary) of asthma (ICD9-CM code = 493*); selected prescriptions of anti-asthma drugs (ATC code = R03A, R03CC02, R03CC04, R03CK, R03DC01, R03DC03), and health-tax exemptions for asthma (code = 007.493) from ET. We defined as prevalent case a subject who was present every single year in at least one of four health databases. We reported the absolute and relative contribution of each information system by area, age, gender and year of interest. A sensitivity analysis using more restrictive criteria to identify prevalent cases (two or more prescriptions per year) was also performed. the PF archive is the most important information source in identifying prevalent cases (from 92.5% of Torino to 95.4% of Firenze). The standardized prevalence of asthma in 0-34 years of age is higher in Venezia (6.37%; 2003 year) than in the other two areas, which show similar values (4.01% in Firenze, 3.77% in Torino; 2003 year). In both genders, the standardized prevalence of asthma is, for all centers, clearly higher in the 0-14 age group than in the 15-34 age group. However, Venezia has a prevalence almost twice (11.21%) that of Firenze (6.20%) and Torino (5.60%) in the 0-14years age group. The use of more restrictive criteria in

The impact of proposed changes to ICD-11 on estimates of PTSD prevalence and comorbidity.

PubMed

Wisco, Blair E; Miller, Mark W; Wolf, Erika J; Kilpatrick, Dean; Resnick, Heidi S; Badour, Christal L; Marx, Brian P; Keane, Terence M; Rosen, Raymond C; Friedman, Matthew J

2016-06-30

The World Health Organization's posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) work group has published a proposal for the forthcoming edition of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11) that would yield a very different diagnosis relative to DSM-5. This study examined the impact of the proposed ICD-11 changes on PTSD prevalence relative to the ICD-10 and DSM-5 definitions and also evaluated the extent to which these changes would accomplish the stated aim of reducing the comorbidity associated with PTSD. Diagnostic prevalence estimates were compared using a U.S. national community sample and two U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs clinical samples. The ICD-11 definition yielded prevalence estimates 10-30% lower than DSM-5 and 25% and 50% lower than ICD-10 with no reduction in the prevalence of common comorbidities. Findings suggest that by constraining the diagnosis to a narrower set of symptoms, the proposed ICD-11 criteria set would substantially reduce the number of individuals with the disorder. These findings raise doubt about the extent to which the ICD-11 proposal would achieve the aim of reducing comorbidity associated with PTSD and highlight the public health and policy implications of such a redefinition. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Hepatitis C in HIV-infected individuals: a systematic review and meta-analysis of estimated prevalence in Africa.

PubMed

Azevedo, Tiago Castro Lopes; Zwahlen, Marcel; Rauch, Andri; Egger, Matthias; Wandeler, Gilles

2016-01-01

Although hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening is recommended for all HIV-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy, data on epidemiologic characteristics of HCV infection in resource-limited settings are scarce. We searched PubMed and EMBASE for studies assessing the prevalence of HCV infection among HIV-infected individuals in Africa and extracted data on laboratory methods used. Prevalence estimates from individual studies were combined for each country using random-effects meta-analysis. The importance of study design, population and setting as well as type of test (anti-HCV antibody tests and polymerase chain reactions) was examined with meta-regression. Three randomized controlled trials, 28 cohort studies and 121 cross-sectional analyses with 108,180 HIV-infected individuals from 35 countries were included. The majority of data came from outpatient populations (55%), followed by blood donors (15%) and pregnant women (14%). Based on estimates from 159 study populations, anti-HCV positivity prevalence ranged between 3.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8-4.7) in Southern Africa and 42.3% (95% CI 4.1-80.5) in North Africa. Study design, type of setting and age distribution did not influence this prevalence significantly. The prevalence of replicating HCV infection, estimated from data of 29 cohorts, was 2.0% (95% CI 1.5-2.6). Ten studies from nine countries reported the HCV genotype of 74 samples, 53% were genotype 1, 24% genotype 2, 14% genotype 4 and 9% genotypes 3, 5 or 6. The prevalence of anti-HCV antibodies is high in HIV-infected patients in Africa, but replicating HCV infection is rare and varies widely across countries.

Estimation of infection prevalence and sensitivity in a stratified two-stage sampling design employing highly specific diagnostic tests when there is no gold standard.

PubMed

Miller, Ezer; Huppert, Amit; Novikov, Ilya; Warburg, Alon; Hailu, Asrat; Abbasi, Ibrahim; Freedman, Laurence S

2015-11-10

In this work, we describe a two-stage sampling design to estimate the infection prevalence in a population. In the first stage, an imperfect diagnostic test was performed on a random sample of the population. In the second stage, a different imperfect test was performed in a stratified random sample of the first sample. To estimate infection prevalence, we assumed conditional independence between the diagnostic tests and develop method of moments estimators based on expectations of the proportions of people with positive and negative results on both tests that are functions of the tests' sensitivity, specificity, and the infection prevalence. A closed-form solution of the estimating equations was obtained assuming a specificity of 100% for both tests. We applied our method to estimate the infection prevalence of visceral leishmaniasis according to two quantitative polymerase chain reaction tests performed on blood samples taken from 4756 patients in northern Ethiopia. The sensitivities of the tests were also estimated, as well as the standard errors of all estimates, using a parametric bootstrap. We also examined the impact of departures from our assumptions of 100% specificity and conditional independence on the estimated prevalence. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Estimating disease prevalence from two-phase surveys with non-response at the second phase

PubMed Central

Gao, Sujuan; Hui, Siu L.; Hall, Kathleen S.; Hendrie, Hugh C.

2010-01-01

SUMMARY In this paper we compare several methods for estimating population disease prevalence from data collected by two-phase sampling when there is non-response at the second phase. The traditional weighting type estimator requires the missing completely at random assumption and may yield biased estimates if the assumption does not hold. We review two approaches and propose one new approach to adjust for non-response assuming that the non-response depends on a set of covariates collected at the first phase: an adjusted weighting type estimator using estimated response probability from a response model; a modelling type estimator using predicted disease probability from a disease model; and a regression type estimator combining the adjusted weighting type estimator and the modelling type estimator. These estimators are illustrated using data from an Alzheimer’s disease study in two populations. Simulation results are presented to investigate the performances of the proposed estimators under various situations. PMID:10931514

Prevalence and incidence of juvenile idiopathic arthritis: a systematic review.

PubMed

Thierry, Sigrid; Fautrel, Bruno; Lemelle, Irène; Guillemin, Francis

2014-03-01

To conduct a systematic literature review on incidence and prevalence of juvenile idiopathic arthritis and to estimate these figures in Europe for 2010. Articles on incidence or prevalence of juvenile idiopathic arthritis were searched in Medline. Pooled incidence and prevalence were calculated overall, by gender, age, classification and arthritis categories. We used the available age and gender pooled rates to standardize the incidence and prevalence on the 2010 European population and estimate the number of cases in Europe in 2010. Forty-three articles (33 on incidence, 29 on prevalence) were included. Incidence rates varied from 1.6 to 23 and prevalence from 3.8 to 400/100,000. Pooled incidence and prevalence were higher for girls (10.0 [9.4-10.7] and 19.4 [18.3-20.6]/100,000) than boys (5.7 [5.3-6.2] and 11.0 [10.2-11.9]/100,000). Oligoarthritis was the most frequent form (pooled incidence rate 3.7 [3.5-3.9] and prevalence 16.8 [15.9-17.7]/100,000). The direct standardized incidence rate was 8.2 [7.5-9.0] and prevalence 70.2 [62.9-78.1]/100,000. In Europe in 2010, the estimated number of incident cases was 6896 [5481-8578] and 59,175 [44,256-76,983] prevalent cases. Incidence and prevalence varied greatly among published reports of juvenile idiopathic arthritis, which may be explained by methodological issues, classification used, and time. Estimating the number of affected children can be useful, especially with the new treatment possibilities. Copyright © 2013 Société française de rhumatologie. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Deforestation does not affect the prevalence of a common trypanosome in African birds.

PubMed

Valkiūnas, Gediminas; Iezhova, Tatjana A; Sehgal, Ravinder N M

2016-10-01

In spite of numerous reports of avian Trypanosoma spp. in birds throughout the world, patterns of the distribution and prevalence of these blood parasites remains insufficiently understood. It is clear that spatial heterogeneity influences parameters of parasite distributions in natural populations, but data regarding avian trypanosomes are scarce. Using microscopy and molecular diagnostic methods, we analysed the variation of prevalence of avian Trypanosoma parasites in two widespread African bird species, the yellow-whiskered greenbul Andropadus latirostris and the olive sunbird Cyanomitra olivacea. In all, 353 birds were captured in pristine forests and agroforest sites in Cameroon and Ghana. Overall, the prevalence of avian trypanosomes was 51.3%. Five morphospecies were reported (Trypanosoma everetti, T. anguiformis, T. avium, T. naviformis, T. ontarioensis). Trypanosoma everetti predominated, representing 98% of all Trypanosoma spp. reports, and it was present in both avian hosts. The prevalence of T. everetti was significantly less in the yellow-whiskered greenbul (19%) than olive sunbird (83%), and the same pattern of prevalence was reported in these avian hosts at different study sites. We found no interaction between sites and the prevalence of T. everetti. For both avian hosts, the prevalence did not differ significantly between pristine forests and agroforests. This indicates the same pattern of transmission at sites with different levels of deforestation and suggests that spatial heterogeneity related to deforestation does not affect the prevalence of avian Trypanosoma infections. It is likely that host-related factors, but not environmental conditions favour or reduce these parasite infections in forests of sub-Saharan Africa. Microscopic and PCR-based diagnostics showed the same sensitivity in diagnostics of T. everetti. We discuss the implications of these findings for the epidemiology of avian trypanosomiasis in natural populations. Copyright �

Childhood Chronic Illness: Prevalence, Severity, and Impact.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newacheck, Paul W.; Taylor, William R.

1992-01-01

Presents national estimates of the prevalence and impact of chronic childhood conditions using proxy responses for 17,110 children under age 18 years. Thirty-one percent of the children are affected by chronic conditions, which include respiratory allergies, repeated ear infections, and asthma. Psychosocial conditions moderate the impact of these…

Decreasing Prevalence of the Full Metabolic Syndrome but a Persistently High Prevalence of Dyslipidemia among Adult Arabs

PubMed Central

Al-Daghri, Nasser M.; Al-Attas, Omar S.; Alokail, Majed S.; Alkharfy, Khalid M.; Sabico, Shaun Louie B.; Chrousos, George P.

2010-01-01

A decade has passed since metabolic syndrome (MetS) was documented to be highly prevalent in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. No follow-up epidemiologic study was done. This study aims to fill this gap. In this cross-sectional, observational study, a total of 2850 randomly selected Saudi adults aged 18–55 years were recruited. Subjects' information was generated from a database of more than 10,000 Saudi citizens from the existing Biomarkers Screening in Riyadh Program (RIYADH Cohort), Saudi Arabia. Anthropometrics included body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, as well as waist and hip circumferences. Fasting blood glucose and lipid profile were determined using routine laboratory procedures. The definition of ATP-III (NHANES III) was used for the diagnosis of the full MetS. The overall prevalence of complete MetS was 35.3% [Confidence-Interval (CI) 33.5–37.01]. Age-adjusted prevalence according to the European standard population is 37.0%. Low HDL-cholesterol was the most prevalent of all MetS risk factors, affecting 88.6% (CI 87.5–89.7) and hypertriglyceridemia the second most prevalent, affecting 34% (CI 32.3–35.7) of the subjects. The prevalence of the full MetS decreased from previous estimates but remains high, while dyslipidemia remains extremely high, affecting almost 90% of middle-aged Arabs. Screening for dyslipidemia among Saudi adults is warranted, especially among those most at risk. Scientific inquiry into the molecular causes of these manifestations should be pursued as a first step in the discovery of etiologic therapies. PMID:20730053

Decreasing prevalence of the full metabolic syndrome but a persistently high prevalence of dyslipidemia among adult Arabs.

PubMed

Al-Daghri, Nasser M; Al-Attas, Omar S; Alokail, Majed S; Alkharfy, Khalid M; Sabico, Shaun Louie B; Chrousos, George P

2010-08-13

A decade has passed since metabolic syndrome (MetS) was documented to be highly prevalent in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. No follow-up epidemiologic study was done. This study aims to fill this gap. In this cross-sectional, observational study, a total of 2850 randomly selected Saudi adults aged 18-55 years were recruited. Subjects' information was generated from a database of more than 10,000 Saudi citizens from the existing Biomarkers Screening in Riyadh Program (RIYADH Cohort), Saudi Arabia. Anthropometrics included body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, as well as waist and hip circumferences. Fasting blood glucose and lipid profile were determined using routine laboratory procedures. The definition of ATP-III (NHANES III) was used for the diagnosis of the full MetS. The overall prevalence of complete MetS was 35.3% [Confidence-Interval (CI) 33.5-37.01]. Age-adjusted prevalence according to the European standard population is 37.0%. Low HDL-cholesterol was the most prevalent of all MetS risk factors, affecting 88.6% (CI 87.5-89.7) and hypertriglyceridemia the second most prevalent, affecting 34% (CI 32.3-35.7) of the subjects. The prevalence of the full MetS decreased from previous estimates but remains high, while dyslipidemia remains extremely high, affecting almost 90% of middle-aged Arabs. Screening for dyslipidemia among Saudi adults is warranted, especially among those most at risk. Scientific inquiry into the molecular causes of these manifestations should be pursued as a first step in the discovery of etiologic therapies.

Estimating usual intakes mainly affects the micronutrient distribution among infants, toddlers and pre-schoolers from the 2012 Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey.

PubMed

Piernas, Carmen; Miles, Donna R; Deming, Denise M; Reidy, Kathleen C; Popkin, Barry M

2016-04-01

To compare estimates from one day with usual intake estimates to evaluate how the adjustment for within-person variability affected nutrient intake and adequacy in Mexican children. In order to obtain usual nutrient intakes, the National Cancer Institute's method was used to correct the first 24 h dietary recall collected in the entire sample (n 2045) with a second 24 h recall collected in a sub-sample (n 178). We computed estimates of one-day and usual intakes of total energy, fat, Fe, Zn and Na. 2012 Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey. A total of 2045 children were included: 0-5·9 months old (n 182), 6-11·9 months old (n 228), 12-23·9 months old (n 537) and 24-47·9 months old (n 1098). From these, 178 provided an additional dietary recall. Although we found small or no differences in energy intake (kJ/d and kcal/d) between one-day v. usual intake means, the prevalence of inadequate and excessive energy intake decreased somewhat when using measures of usual intake relative to one day. Mean fat intake (g/d) was not different between one-day and usual intake among children >6 months old, but the prevalence of inadequate and excessive fat intake was overestimated among toddlers and pre-schoolers when using one-day intake (P6 months. There was overall low variability in energy and fat intakes but higher for micronutrients. Because the usual intake distributions are narrower, the prevalence of inadequate/excessive intakes may be biased when estimating nutrient adequacy if one day of data is used.

Missing the Mark? A Two Time Point Cohort Study Estimating Intestinal Parasite Prevalence in Informal Settlements in Lima, Peru.

PubMed

Cooper, Michael Townsend; Searing, Rapha A; Thompson, David M; Bard, David; Carabin, Hélène; Gonzales, Carlos; Zavala, Carmen; Woodson, Kyle; Naifeh, Monique

2017-01-01

Objectives: The World Health Organization's (WHO) recommendations list Peru as potentially needing prevention of soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH). Prevalence of STH varies regionally and remains understudied in the newest informal settlements of the capital city, Lima. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the need for Mass Drug Administration (MDA) of antiparasitic drugs in the newest informal settlements of Lima. The aim of this study was to estimate the season-specific prevalence of STH to determine if these prevalence estimates met the WHO threshold for MDA in 3 informal settlements. Methods : A 2 time point cohort study was conducted among a sample of 140 children aged 1 to 10 years living in 3 purposively sampled informal settlements of Lima, Peru. Children were asked to provide 2 stool samples that were analyzed with the spontaneous sedimentation in tube technique. The season-specific prevalence proportions of MDA-targeted STH were estimated using a hidden (latent) Markov modeling approach to adjust for repeated measurements over the 2 seasons and the imperfect validity of the screening tests. Results : The prevalence of MDA targeted STH was low at 2.2% (95% confidence interval = 0.3% to 6%) and 3.8% (95% confidence interval = 0.7% to 9.3%) among children sampled in the summer and winter months, respectively, when using the most conservative estimate of test sensitivity. These estimates were below the WHO threshold for MDA (20%). Conclusions : Empiric treatment for STH by organizations active in the newest informal settlements is not supported by the data and could contribute to unnecessary medication exposures and poor allocation of resources.

Missing the Mark? A Two Time Point Cohort Study Estimating Intestinal Parasite Prevalence in Informal Settlements in Lima, Peru

PubMed Central

Cooper, Michael Townsend; Searing, Rapha A.; Thompson, David M.; Bard, David; Carabin, Hélène; Gonzales, Carlos; Zavala, Carmen; Woodson, Kyle; Naifeh, Monique

2017-01-01

Objectives: The World Health Organization’s (WHO) recommendations list Peru as potentially needing prevention of soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH). Prevalence of STH varies regionally and remains understudied in the newest informal settlements of the capital city, Lima. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the need for Mass Drug Administration (MDA) of antiparasitic drugs in the newest informal settlements of Lima. The aim of this study was to estimate the season-specific prevalence of STH to determine if these prevalence estimates met the WHO threshold for MDA in 3 informal settlements. Methods: A 2 time point cohort study was conducted among a sample of 140 children aged 1 to 10 years living in 3 purposively sampled informal settlements of Lima, Peru. Children were asked to provide 2 stool samples that were analyzed with the spontaneous sedimentation in tube technique. The season-specific prevalence proportions of MDA-targeted STH were estimated using a hidden (latent) Markov modeling approach to adjust for repeated measurements over the 2 seasons and the imperfect validity of the screening tests. Results: The prevalence of MDA targeted STH was low at 2.2% (95% confidence interval = 0.3% to 6%) and 3.8% (95% confidence interval = 0.7% to 9.3%) among children sampled in the summer and winter months, respectively, when using the most conservative estimate of test sensitivity. These estimates were below the WHO threshold for MDA (20%). Conclusions: Empiric treatment for STH by organizations active in the newest informal settlements is not supported by the data and could contribute to unnecessary medication exposures and poor allocation of resources. PMID:29152541

[Ischemic heart disease prevalence estimated using a standard algorithm based on electronic health data in various areas of Italy].

PubMed

Balzi, Daniela; Barchielli, Alessandro; Battistella, Giuseppe; Gnavi, Roberto; Inio, Andrea; Tessari, Roberta; Picariello, Roberta; Canova, Cristina; Simonato, Lorenzo

2008-01-01

to define an algorithm to estimate prevalence of ischemic heart disease from health administrative datasets. four Italian areas: Venezia, Treviso, Torino, Firenze. resident population in the four areas in the period 2002-2004 (only 2003 for Firenze) for a total of 2,350,000 inhabitants in 2003. annual crude and standardized prevalence rate (x100 inhabitants), 95% confidence intervals by area. Quality (comparability and coherence) indicators are also reported the algorithm is based on record linkage of hospital discharges (SDO), pharmacological prescriptions (PF), exemptions from health-tax exemptions (ET) and causes of mortality (CM). From SDO we extracted discharges for ICD9-CM codes 410*-414* in all diagnoses in the estimation year and during the four years immediately preceding. We selected from PF subjects with at least two prescriptions of organic nitrates (ATC = C01DA*) in the estimation year. From ET subjects with a new exemption for ischemic heart disease (002.414) or who obtained exemption in the three years preceding, were selected. We also considered all deaths in the year for ischemic heart disease (ICD9 CM 410-414). Cases were defined as ischemic heart disease prevalent cases if they were extracted at least once from one of the datasets and if they were alive on January 1 of the estimation year. estimated crude prevalence ranges from 2.5 to 4%. The standardized prevalence led to a narrower range of values (2.8-3.3%). Venezia and Firenze show a higher standardized prevalence in both sexes (men 4.7% and 4.4%; women 2.3% and 2.2% respectively); Treviso and Torino present a lower standardized prevalence (men: 3.9%; women: 1.9%). The hospital discharges are the main source to identify prevalent subjects (34-48% of subjects are solely identified by SDO), pharmacological prescriptions are a relevant source in Firenze and Torino (27-28%), while they are less relevant in Venezia and Treviso (13-15%). ET shows a different contribution to prevalent case

Constraints to estimating the prevalence of trypanosome infections in East African zebu cattle

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background In East Africa, animal trypanosomiasis is caused by many tsetse transmitted protozoan parasites including Trypanosoma vivax, T. congolense and subspecies of T. brucei s.l. (T. b. brucei and zoonotic human infective T. b. rhodesiense) that may co-circulate in domestic and wild animals. Accurate species-specific prevalence measurements of these parasites in animal populations are complicated by mixed infections of trypanosomes within individual hosts, low parasite densities and difficulties in conducting field studies. Many Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) based diagnostic tools are available to characterise and quantify infection in animals. These are important for assessing the contribution of infections in animal reservoirs and the risk posed to humans from zoonotic trypanosome species. New matrices for DNA capture have simplified large scale field PCR analyses but few studies have examined the impact of these techniques on prevalence estimations. Results The Whatman FTA matrix has been evaluated using a random sample of 35 village zebu cattle from a population naturally exposed to trypanosome infection. Using a generic trypanosome-specific PCR, prevalence was systematically evaluated. Multiple PCR samples taken from single FTA cards demonstrated that a single punch from an FTA card is not sufficient to confirm the infectivity status of an individual animal as parasite DNA is unevenly distributed across the card. At low parasite densities in the host, this stochastic sampling effect results in underestimation of prevalence based on single punch PCR testing. Repeated testing increased the estimated prevalence of all Trypanosoma spp. from 9.7% to 86%. Using repeat testing, a very high prevalence of pathogenic trypanosomes was detected in these local village cattle: T. brucei (34.3%), T. congolense (42.9%) and T. vivax (22.9%). Conclusions These results show that, despite the convenience of Whatman FTA cards and specific PCR based detection tools, the

Predicting individual affect of health interventions to reduce HPV prevalence.

PubMed

Corley, Courtney D; Mihalcea, Rada; Mikler, Armin R; Sanfilippo, Antonio P

2011-01-01

Recently, human papilloma virus (HPV) has been implicated to cause several throat and oral cancers and HPV is established to cause most cervical cancers. A human papilloma virus vaccine has been proven successful to reduce infection incidence in FDA clinical trials, and it is currently available in the USA. Current intervention policy targets adolescent females for vaccination; however, the expansion of suggested guidelines may extend to other age groups and males as well. This research takes a first step toward automatically predicting personal beliefs, regarding health intervention, on the spread of disease. Using linguistic or statistical approaches, sentiment analysis determines a text's affective content. Self-reported HPV vaccination beliefs published in web and social media are analyzed for affect polarity and leveraged as knowledge inputs to epidemic models. With this in mind, we have developed a discrete-time model to facilitate predicting impact on the reduction of HPV prevalence due to arbitrary age- and gender-targeted vaccination schemes.

Predicting Individual Affect of Health Interventions to Reduce HPV Prevalence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Corley, Courtney D.; Mihalcea, Rada; Mikler, Armin R.

Recently, human papilloma virus has been implicated to cause several throat and oral cancers and hpv is established to cause most cervical cancers. A human papilloma virus vaccine has been proven successful to reduce infection incidence in FDA clinical trials and it is currently available in the United States. Current intervention policy targets adolescent females for vaccination; however, the expansion of suggested guidelines may extend to other age groups and males as well. This research takes a first step towards automatically predicting personal beliefs, regarding health intervention, on the spread of disease. Using linguistic or statistical approaches, sentiment analysis determinesmore » a texts affective content. Self-reported HPV vaccination beliefs published in web and social media are analyzed for affect polarity and leveraged as knowledge inputs to epidemic models. With this in mind, we have developed a discrete-time model to facilitate predicting impact on the reduction of HPV prevalence due to arbitrary age and gender targeted vaccination schemes.« less

Randomized response estimates for the 12-month prevalence of cognitive-enhancing drug use in university students.

PubMed

Dietz, Pavel; Striegel, Heiko; Franke, Andreas G; Lieb, Klaus; Simon, Perikles; Ulrich, Rolf

2013-01-01

To estimate the 12-month prevalence of cognitive-enhancing drug use. Paper-and-pencil questionnaire that used the randomized response technique. University in Mainz, Germany. A total of 2569 university students who completed the questionnaire. An anonymous, specialized questionnaire that used the randomized response technique was distributed to students at the beginning of classes and was collected afterward. From the responses, we calculated the prevalence of students taking drugs only to improve their cognitive performance and not to treat underlying mental disorders such as attention-deficit-hyperactivity disorder, depression, and sleep disorders. The estimated 12-month prevalence of using cognitive-enhancing drugs was 20%. Prevalence varied by sex (male 23.7%, female 17.0%), field of study (highest in students studying sports-related fields, 25.4%), and semester (first semester 24.3%, beyond first semester 16.7%). To our knowledge, this is the first time that the randomized response technique has been used to survey students about cognitive-enhancing drug use. Using the randomized response technique, our questionnaire provided data that showed a high 12-month prevalence of cognitive-enhancing drug use in German university students. Our study suggests that other direct survey techniques have underestimated the use of these drugs. Drug prevention programs need to be established at universities to address this issue. © 2013 Pharmacotherapy Publications, Inc.

Chronic disease prevalence from Italian administrative databases in the VALORE project: a validation through comparison of population estimates with general practice databases and national survey

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Administrative databases are widely available and have been extensively used to provide estimates of chronic disease prevalence for the purpose of surveillance of both geographical and temporal trends. There are, however, other sources of data available, such as medical records from primary care and national surveys. In this paper we compare disease prevalence estimates obtained from these three different data sources. Methods Data from general practitioners (GP) and administrative transactions for health services were collected from five Italian regions (Veneto, Emilia Romagna, Tuscany, Marche and Sicily) belonging to all the three macroareas of the country (North, Center, South). Crude prevalence estimates were calculated by data source and region for diabetes, ischaemic heart disease, heart failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). For diabetes and COPD, prevalence estimates were also obtained from a national health survey. When necessary, estimates were adjusted for completeness of data ascertainment. Results Crude prevalence estimates of diabetes in administrative databases (range: from 4.8% to 7.1%) were lower than corresponding GP (6.2%-8.5%) and survey-based estimates (5.1%-7.5%). Geographical trends were similar in the three sources and estimates based on treatment were the same, while estimates adjusted for completeness of ascertainment (6.1%-8.8%) were slightly higher. For ischaemic heart disease administrative and GP data sources were fairly consistent, with prevalence ranging from 3.7% to 4.7% and from 3.3% to 4.9%, respectively. In the case of heart failure administrative estimates were consistently higher than GPs’ estimates in all five regions, the highest difference being 1.4% vs 1.1%. For COPD the estimates from administrative data, ranging from 3.1% to 5.2%, fell into the confidence interval of the Survey estimates in four regions, but failed to detect the higher prevalence in the most Southern region (4.0% in

Applied Prevalence Ratio estimation with different Regression models: An example from a cross-national study on substance use research.

PubMed

Espelt, Albert; Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Penelo, Eva; Bosque-Prous, Marina

2016-06-14

To examine the differences between Prevalence Ratio (PR) and Odds Ratio (OR) in a cross-sectional study and to provide tools to calculate PR using two statistical packages widely used in substance use research (STATA and R). We used cross-sectional data from 41,263 participants of 16 European countries participating in the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). The dependent variable, hazardous drinking, was calculated using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test - Consumption (AUDIT-C). The main independent variable was gender. Other variables used were: age, educational level and country of residence. PR of hazardous drinking in men with relation to women was estimated using Mantel-Haenszel method, log-binomial regression models and poisson regression models with robust variance. These estimations were compared to the OR calculated using logistic regression models. Prevalence of hazardous drinkers varied among countries. Generally, men have higher prevalence of hazardous drinking than women [PR=1.43 (1.38-1.47)]. Estimated PR was identical independently of the method and the statistical package used. However, OR overestimated PR, depending on the prevalence of hazardous drinking in the country. In cross-sectional studies, where comparisons between countries with differences in the prevalence of the disease or condition are made, it is advisable to use PR instead of OR.

Cigarette Smoking Among Inmates by Race/Ethnicity: Impact of Excluding African American Young Adult Men From National Prevalence Estimates.

PubMed

Kennedy, Sara M; Sharapova, Saida R; Beasley, Derrick D; Hsia, Jason

2016-04-01

Cigarette smoking prevalence is more than two times greater among incarcerated adults, a population usually excluded from national health surveys. African American young adult (18-25) men are less likely to smoke cigarettes than their white counterparts. However, they are two and a-half-times more likely to be incarcerated. This study estimated smoking prevalence with noninstitutionalized and incarcerated samples combined to determine if excluding incarcerated adults impacts smoking prevalence for certain populations. The Bureau of Justice Statistics last fielded the Survey of Inmates in State and Federal Correction Facilities in 2003-2004. We combined data from Survey of Inmates in State and Federal Correction Facilities (n = 17 910) and the 2003 and 2004 National Health Interview Survey (n = 61 470) to calculate combined cigarette smoking estimates by race/ethnicity, sex, and age. Inmates represented the greatest proportion of smokers among African American men. Among African American young adult men, inmates represented 15.2% of all smokers in the combined population, compared to 2.0% among white young adult men. Cigarette smoking prevalence was 17.6% in the noninstitutionalized population of young adult African American men and 19.7% in the combined population. Among white young adult men, cigarette smoking prevalence was 29.8% in the noninstitutionalized population, and 30.2% in the combined population. There was little difference in estimates among women. The exclusion of incarcerated African American young adult men may result in a small underestimation of cigarette smoking prevalence in this population. Increasing access to smoking cessation support among inmates may reduce smoking prevalence in disproportionately incarcerated segments of the US population. The exclusion of incarcerated adults from national survey data should be considered when examining differences in cigarette smoking prevalence estimates between African American and white young adult men

Estimated prevalence of erosive tooth wear in permanent teeth of children and adolescents: an epidemiological systematic review and meta-regression analysis.

PubMed

Salas, M M S; Nascimento, G G; Huysmans, M C; Demarco, F F

2015-01-01

The main purpose of this systematic review was to estimate the prevalence of dental erosion in permanent teeth of children and adolescents. An electronic search was performed up to and including March 2014. Eligibility criteria included population-based studies in permanent teeth of children and adolescents aged 8-19-year-old reporting the prevalence or data that allowed the calculation of prevalence rates of tooth erosion. Data collection assessed information regarding geographic location, type of index used for clinical examination, sample size, year of publication, age, examined teeth and tissue exposure. The estimated prevalence of erosive wear was determined, followed by a meta-regression analysis. Twenty-two papers were included in the systematic review. The overall estimated prevalence of tooth erosion was 30.4% (95%IC 23.8-37.0). In the multivariate meta-regression model use of the Tooth Wear Index for clinical examination, studies with sample smaller than 1000 subjects and those conducted in the Middle East and Africa remained associated with higher dental erosion prevalence rates. Our results demonstrated that the estimated prevalence of erosive wear in permanent teeth of children and adolescents is 30.4% with high heterogeneity between studies. Additionally, the correct choice of a clinical index for dental erosion detection and the geographic location play an important role for the large variability of erosive tooth wear in permanent teeth of children and adolescents. The prevalence of tooth erosion observed in permanent teeth of children and adolescents was considerable high. Our results demonstrated that prevalence rate of erosive wear was influenced by methodological and diagnosis factors. When tooth erosion is assessed, the clinical index should be considered. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chronic widespread pain prevalence in the general population: A systematic review.

PubMed

Andrews, P; Steultjens, M; Riskowski, J

2018-01-01

Chronic widespread pain (CWP) is a significant burden in communities. Understanding the impact of population-dependent (e.g., age, gender) and contextual-dependent (e.g. survey method, region, inequality level) factors have on CWP prevalence may provide a foundation for population-based strategies to address CWP. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to estimate the global prevalence of CWP and evaluate the population and contextual factors associated with CWP. A systematic review of CWP prevalence studies (1990-2017) in the general population was undertaken. Meta-analyses were conducted to determine CWP prevalence, and study population data and contextual factors were evaluated using a meta-regression. Thirty-nine manuscripts met the inclusion criteria. Study CWP prevalence ranged from 1.4% to 24.0%, with CWP prevalence in men ranging from 0.8% to 15.3% and 1.7% to 22.1% in women. Estimated overall CWP prevalence was 9.6% (8.0-11.2%). Meta-regression analyses showed gender, United Nations country development status, and human development index (HDI) influenced CWP prevalence, while survey method, region, methodological and reporting quality, and inequality showed no significant effect on the CWP estimate. Globally CWP affects one in ten individuals within the general population, with women more likely to experience CWP than men. HDI was noted to be the socioeconomic factor related to CWP prevalence, with those in more developed countries having a lower CWP prevalence than those in less developed countries. Most CWP estimates were from developed countries, and CWP estimates from countries with a lower socioeconomic position is needed to further refine the global estimate of CWP. This systematic review and meta-analysis updates the current global CWP prevalence by examining the population-level (e.g. age, gender) and contextual (e.g. country development status; survey style; reporting and methodologic quality) factors associated with CWP prevalence. This analyses

Pseudobulbar affect: an under-recognized and under-treated neurological disorder.

PubMed

Work, Susan S; Colamonico, Jennifer A; Bradley, Walter G; Kaye, Randall E

2011-07-01

Pseudobulbar affect (PBA) is a neurologic syndrome of emotional affect disinhibition, characterized by uncontrollable, exaggerated, and often inappropriate emotional outbursts, which may cause severe distress, embarrassment, and social dysfunction. However, the US prevalence of PBA remains unknown. An online survey was conducted primarily to estimate the US prevalence of PBA in patients with the six most commonly associated conditions: Alzheimer's disease, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, multiple sclerosis, Parkinson's disease, stroke, and traumatic brain injury. Invitations to participate were randomly sent online to adults (aged ≥ 18 years) registered in the Harris Poll Online Panel who were patients or belonged to a household with a patient diagnosed with one of the six conditions (identified through previous screening by Harris Interactive). Participants were screened for PBA using the Pathological Laughing and Crying Scale (PLACS) and the Center for Neurologic Study-Lability Scale (CNS-LS). PBA estimates were made using a cut-off score of ≥ 13 on the PLACS and two different cut-off thresholds on the CNS-LS, a lower one of ≥ 13 and a more rigorous one of ≥ 21. Existing US prevalence data for the six underlying conditions were used to estimate US prevalence of PBA. Of 38,000 individuals invited to participate, 8876 responded (23%) and 2318 (26%) completed the questionnaire. Mean prevalence of PBA across all six conditions was 10.1%, 9.4%, and 37.5% with the PLACS ≥ 13, CNS-LS ≥ 21, and CNS-LS ≥ 13 thresholds, respectively. Using disease population estimates from government agencies and professional organizations, the estimated US population with PBA ranged from 1.8 to 7.1 million. Among patients who discussed their laughing and/or crying episodes with a physician, 41% were diagnosed, and about half received a medication for their episodes. The overall prevalence of PBA was estimated to be about 10% across these commonly associated underlying

Specific and unspecific gynecological alarm symptoms--prevalence estimates in different age groups: a population-based study.

PubMed

Balasubramaniam, Kirubakaran; Ravn, Pernille; Larsen, Pia V; Søndergaard, Jens; Jarbøl, Dorte E

2015-02-01

To determine prevalence estimates of gynecological alarm symptoms in different age groups and to describe common patterns of gynecological symptoms. Web-based cross-sectional survey study. Nationwide in Denmark. A random sample of 51,090 women aged 20 years or above from the general population. An internet-based questionnaire study regarding the prevalence estimates of symptom experiences. A total of 18 symptoms of cervical, endometrial and ovarian cancer were selected through an extensive literature search, which included national and international guidelines. Prevalence estimates of self-reported experience of gynecological alarm symptoms within the preceding 4 weeks. A total of 26,466 women (54.5%) participated in the study. Some 80.3% had experienced at least one of the alarm symptoms within the preceding 4 weeks, and the median number of experienced symptoms was 2 (interquartile range 1-4). The most common symptoms were tiredness (53.0%) and abdominal bloating (36.7%); postmenopausal bleeding (2.3%) and involuntary weight loss (2.8%) were least frequent. Most of the symptoms were more prevalent among younger women, whereas only dyspnea and increased urgency of urination were more frequent among older women. Among younger women, multiple abdominal symptoms often occurred simultaneously and frequently in combination with pelvic pain, whereas older women were more likely to report single symptoms. Gynecological alarm symptoms are frequent in the general population, mostly among younger women. Older women reported fewer symptoms, and these often appeared as single symptoms. © 2014 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

A Bayesian evidence synthesis approach to estimate disease prevalence in hard-to-reach populations: hepatitis C in New York City.

PubMed

Tan, Sarah; Makela, Susanna; Heller, Daliah; Konty, Kevin; Balter, Sharon; Zheng, Tian; Stark, James H

2018-06-01

Existing methods to estimate the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C (HCV) in New York City (NYC) are limited in scope and fail to assess hard-to-reach subpopulations with highest risk such as injecting drug users (IDUs). To address these limitations, we employ a Bayesian multi-parameter evidence synthesis model to systematically combine multiple sources of data, account for bias in certain data sources, and provide unbiased HCV prevalence estimates with associated uncertainty. Our approach improves on previous estimates by explicitly accounting for injecting drug use and including data from high-risk subpopulations such as the incarcerated, and is more inclusive, utilizing ten NYC data sources. In addition, we derive two new equations to allow age at first injecting drug use data for former and current IDUs to be incorporated into the Bayesian evidence synthesis, a first for this type of model. Our estimated overall HCV prevalence as of 2012 among NYC adults aged 20-59 years is 2.78% (95% CI 2.61-2.94%), which represents between 124,900 and 140,000 chronic HCV cases. These estimates suggest that HCV prevalence in NYC is higher than previously indicated from household surveys (2.2%) and the surveillance system (2.37%), and that HCV transmission is increasing among young injecting adults in NYC. An ancillary benefit from our results is an estimate of current IDUs aged 20-59 in NYC: 0.58% or 27,600 individuals. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reference Values of Grip Strength, Prevalence of Low Grip Strength, and Factors Affecting Grip Strength Values in Chinese Adults.

PubMed

Yu, Ruby; Ong, Sherlin; Cheung, Osbert; Leung, Jason; Woo, Jean

2017-06-01

The objectives of this study were to update the reference values of grip strength, to estimate the prevalence of low grip strength, and to examine the impact of different aspects of measurement protocol on grip strength values in Chinese adults. A cross-sectional survey of Chinese men (n = 714) and women (n = 4014) aged 18-102 years was undertaken in different community settings in Hong Kong. Grip strength was measured with a digital dynamometer (TKK 5401 Grip-D; Takei, Niigata, Japan). Low grip strength was defined as grip strength 2 standard deviations or more below the mean for young adults. The effects of measurement protocol on grip strength values were examined in a subsample of 45 men and women with repeated measures of grip strength taken with a hydraulic dynamometer (Baseline; Fabrication Enterprises Inc, Irvington, NY), using pair t-tests, intraclass correlation coefficient, and Bland and Altman plots. Grip strength was greater among men than among women (P < .001) and the rate of decline differed between sexes (P < .001). The prevalence of low grip strength also increased with age, reaching a rate of 16.5% in men and 20.6% in women aged 65+. Although the TKK digital dynamometer gave higher grip strength values than the Baseline hydraulic dynamometer (P < .001), the degree of agreement between the 2 dynamometers was satisfactory. Higher grip strength values were also observed when the measurement was performed with the elbow extended in a standing position, compared with that with the elbow flexed at 90° in a sitting position, using the same dynamometer (P < .05). This study updated the reference values of grip strength and estimated the prevalence of low grip strength among Chinese adults spanning a wide age range. These findings might be useful for risk estimation and evaluation of interventions. However, grip strength measurements should be interpreted with caution, as grip strength values can be affected by type of dynamometer used

Reliability of CKD-EPI predictive equation in estimating chronic kidney disease prevalence in the Croatian endemic nephropathy area.

PubMed

Fuček, Mirjana; Dika, Živka; Karanović, Sandra; Vuković Brinar, Ivana; Premužić, Vedran; Kos, Jelena; Cvitković, Ante; Mišić, Maja; Samardžić, Josip; Rogić, Dunja; Jelaković, Bojan

2018-02-15

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a significant public health problem and it is not possible to precisely predict its progression to terminal renal failure. According to current guidelines, CKD stages are classified based on the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria. Aims of this study were to determine the reliability of predictive equation in estimation of CKD prevalence in Croatian areas with endemic nephropathy (EN), compare the results with non-endemic areas, and to determine if the prevalence of CKD stages 3-5 was increased in subjects with EN. A total of 1573 inhabitants of the Croatian Posavina rural area from 6 endemic and 3 non-endemic villages were enrolled. Participants were classified according to the modified criteria of the World Health Organization for EN. Estimated GFR was calculated using Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation (CKD-EPI). The results showed a very high CKD prevalence in the Croatian rural area (19%). CKD prevalence was significantly higher in EN then in non EN villages with the lowest eGFR value in diseased subgroup. eGFR correlated significantly with the diagnosis of EN. Kidney function assessment using CKD-EPI predictive equation proved to be a good marker in differentiating the study subgroups, remained as one of the diagnostic criteria for EN.

Estimated hepatitis C prevalence and key population sizes in San Francisco: A foundation for elimination.

PubMed

Facente, Shelley N; Grebe, Eduard; Burk, Katie; Morris, Meghan D; Murphy, Edward L; Mirzazadeh, Ali; Smith, Aaron A; Sanchez, Melissa A; Evans, Jennifer L; Nishimura, Amy; Raymond, Henry F

2018-01-01

Initiated in 2016, End Hep C SF is a comprehensive initiative to eliminate hepatitis C (HCV) infection in San Francisco. The introduction of direct-acting antivirals to treat and cure HCV provides an opportunity for elimination. To properly measure progress, an estimate of baseline HCV prevalence, and of the number of people in various subpopulations with active HCV infection, is required to target and measure the impact of interventions. Our analysis was designed to incorporate multiple relevant data sources and estimate HCV burden for the San Francisco population as a whole, including specific key populations at higher risk of infection. Our estimates are based on triangulation of data found in case registries, medical records, observational studies, and published literature from 2010 through 2017. We examined subpopulations based on sex, age and/or HCV risk group. When multiple sources of data were available for subpopulation estimates, we calculated a weighted average using inverse variance weighting. Credible ranges (CRs) were derived from 95% confidence intervals of population size and prevalence estimates. We estimate that 21,758 residents of San Francisco are HCV seropositive (CR: 10,274-42,067), representing an overall seroprevalence of 2.5% (CR: 1.2%- 4.9%). Of these, 16,408 are estimated to be viremic (CR: 6,505-37,407), though this estimate includes treated cases; up to 12,257 of these (CR: 2,354-33,256) are people who are untreated and infectious. People who injected drugs in the last year represent 67.9% of viremic HCV infections. We estimated approximately 7,400 (51%) more HCV seropositive cases than are included in San Francisco's HCV surveillance case registry. Our estimate provides a useful baseline against which the impact of End Hep C SF can be measured.

Interpolation between spatial frameworks: an application of process convolution to estimating neighbourhood disease prevalence.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2014-04-01

Health data may be collected across one spatial framework (e.g. health provider agencies), but contrasts in health over another spatial framework (neighbourhoods) may be of policy interest. In the UK, population prevalence totals for chronic diseases are provided for populations served by general practitioner practices, but not for neighbourhoods (small areas of circa 1500 people), raising the question whether data for one framework can be used to provide spatially interpolated estimates of disease prevalence for the other. A discrete process convolution is applied to this end and has advantages when there are a relatively large number of area units in one or other framework. Additionally, the interpolation is modified to take account of the observed neighbourhood indicators (e.g. hospitalisation rates) of neighbourhood disease prevalence. These are reflective indicators of neighbourhood prevalence viewed as a latent construct. An illustrative application is to prevalence of psychosis in northeast London, containing 190 general practitioner practices and 562 neighbourhoods, including an assessment of sensitivity to kernel choice (e.g. normal vs exponential). This application illustrates how a zero-inflated Poisson can be used as the likelihood model for a reflective indicator.

Interstudy heterogeneity of definitions of diastolic dysfunction severely affects reported prevalence

PubMed Central

Selmeryd, Jonas; Henriksen, Egil; Leppert, Jerzy; Hedberg, Pär

2016-01-01

Aims The aim of this article is to examine how the European Association of Cardiovascular Imaging (EACVI) and the American Society of Echocardiography (ASE) recommendations on the classification of diastolic dysfunction (DDF) are interpreted in the scientific community and to explore how variations in the DDF definition affect the reported prevalence. Methods and results A systematic review of studies citing the EACVI/ASE consensus document ‘Recommendations for the evaluation of left ventricular diastolic function by echocardiography’ was performed. The definition of DDF used in each study was recorded. Subsequently, several possible interpretations of the EACVI/ASE classification scheme were used to obtain DDF prevalence in a community-based sample (n = 714). In the systematic review, 60 studies were included. In 13 studies, no specification of DDF definition was presented, a one-level classification tree was used in 13, a two-level classification tree in 18, and in the remaining 16 studies, a DDF definition was presented but no grading of DDF was performed. In 17 studies, the DDF definition relied solely on early diastolic tissue velocity and/or left atrial size. In eight of these studies, a single parameter was used, in two studies the logical operator AND was used to combine two or more parameters, and the remaining seven studies used the logical operator OR. The resulting prevalence of DDF in the community-based sample varied from 12 to 84%, depending on the DDF definition used. Conclusion A substantial heterogeneity of definitions of DDF was evident among the studies reviewed, and the different definitions had a substantial impact on the reported prevalence of DDF. PMID:26374880

Prevalence of hepatitis B virus in the Kurram Agency, Pakistan: A 5-year observational study in a war-affected region.

PubMed

Hussain, Sabir; Ali, Zameer

2016-09-01

Hepatitis B is an inflammatory liver illness caused by the hepatitis B virus. The exact magnitude and extent of the hepatitis B virus in Pakistan is still unknown, but at least 10 million people are estimated to be infected with chronic hepatitis B virus. The objective of this study was to determine the seroprevalence of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) in the war-affected area since 2009. Observational study. A total of 4922 healthy subjects were tested for the detection of HBsAg during 2009-2013, and 14.95% subjects were found to be reactive for HBsAg. The highest seroprevalence (26.0%) of HBsAg was found in those individuals who were less than 35 years of age. Male subjects were more affected (16.6%) than females. The seroprevalence of HBsAg was significantly associated with <35 years of age and male gender (P<0.005 for both). Moreover, an increasing trend over 5 years was observed, as 8.6% subjects were positive for HBsAg in 2009 and subsequently 10.4% in 2010, 14.6% in 2011, 18.9% in 2012, and 21.7% were reactive for HBsAg in 2013. This study concluded that HBsAg was more prevalent in the war-affected region. The prevalence rate was increasing with time as the highest rate was found in 2013. Present observations will help to provide the background for awareness and bring the increasing levels of hepatitis B to the attention of health professionals and government authorities in order to increase the capacity of the health systems in such troubled areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental temperature affects prevalence of blood parasites of birds on an elevation gradient: implications for disease in a warming climate.

PubMed

Zamora-Vilchis, Itzel; Williams, Stephen E; Johnson, Christopher N

2012-01-01

The rising global temperature is predicted to expand the distribution of vector-borne diseases both in latitude and altitude. Many host communities could be affected by increased prevalence of disease, heightening the risk of extinction for many already threatened species. To understand how host communities could be affected by changing parasite distributions, we need information on the distribution of parasites in relation to variables like temperature and rainfall that are predicted to be affected by climate change. We determined relations between prevalence of blood parasites, temperature, and seasonal rainfall in a bird community of the Australian Wet Tropics along an elevation gradient. We used PCR screening to investigate the prevalence and lineage diversity of four genera of blood parasites (Plasmodium, Haemoproteus, Leucocytozoon and Trypanosoma) in 403 birds. The overall prevalence of the four genera of blood parasites was 32.3%, with Haemoproteus the predominant genus. A total of 48 unique lineages were detected. Independent of elevation, parasite prevalence was positively and strongly associated with annual temperature. Parasite prevalence was elevated during the dry season. Low temperatures of the higher elevations can help to reduce both the development of avian haematozoa and the abundance of parasite vectors, and hence parasite prevalence. In contrast, high temperatures of the lowland areas provide an excellent environment for the development and transmission of haematozoa. We showed that rising temperatures are likely to lead to increased prevalence of parasites in birds, and may force shifts of bird distribution to higher elevations. We found that upland tropical areas are currently a low-disease habitat and their conservation should be given high priority in management plans under climate change.

Environmental Temperature Affects Prevalence of Blood Parasites of Birds on an Elevation Gradient: Implications for Disease in a Warming Climate

PubMed Central

Zamora-Vilchis, Itzel; Williams, Stephen E.; Johnson, Christopher N.

2012-01-01

Background The rising global temperature is predicted to expand the distribution of vector-borne diseases both in latitude and altitude. Many host communities could be affected by increased prevalence of disease, heightening the risk of extinction for many already threatened species. To understand how host communities could be affected by changing parasite distributions, we need information on the distribution of parasites in relation to variables like temperature and rainfall that are predicted to be affected by climate change. Methodology/Principal Findings We determined relations between prevalence of blood parasites, temperature, and seasonal rainfall in a bird community of the Australian Wet Tropics along an elevation gradient. We used PCR screening to investigate the prevalence and lineage diversity of four genera of blood parasites (Plasmodium, Haemoproteus, Leucocytozoon and Trypanosoma) in 403 birds. The overall prevalence of the four genera of blood parasites was 32.3%, with Haemoproteus the predominant genus. A total of 48 unique lineages were detected. Independent of elevation, parasite prevalence was positively and strongly associated with annual temperature. Parasite prevalence was elevated during the dry season. Conclusions/Significance Low temperatures of the higher elevations can help to reduce both the development of avian haematozoa and the abundance of parasite vectors, and hence parasite prevalence. In contrast, high temperatures of the lowland areas provide an excellent environment for the development and transmission of haematozoa. We showed that rising temperatures are likely to lead to increased prevalence of parasites in birds, and may force shifts of bird distribution to higher elevations. We found that upland tropical areas are currently a low-disease habitat and their conservation should be given high priority in management plans under climate change. PMID:22723966

Could intervention by clinics such as Primeros Pasos affect the prevalence of childhood malnutrition in the developing world?

PubMed

Seccombe, Adam; Hughes, Elizabeth

2009-12-01

Guatemala is a country severely affected by malnutrition, particularly in its child population. The present study aimed to assess the impact of recognised aetiological factors on the prevalence of malnutrition and to establish the efficacy of a Guatemalan malnutrition clinic by examining the changes in the prevalence of malnutrition in the ten surrounding communities served by the clinic. Records of children (n 7681) aged 5-16 years seen by the clinic between 2004 and 2006 were examined. Anthropometric data for each child were taken from these records and used as an indicator for their nutritional status to estimate the change in rates of malnutrition during this period. An overall reduction was seen in all forms of malnutrition over the 3-year period, although over 50 % of the study population remained malnourished in 2006. A consistent reduction was also seen in rates of moderate and severe malnutrition, but not in rates of mild malnutrition. The results demonstrate that clinics such as Primeros Pasos can have a beneficial effect on schoolchildren, particularly those who are severely malnourished. A need has been highlighted for more research in this area, particularly how clinics such as Primeros Pasos can be best used in the fight against malnutrition.

Utility of Capture-Recapture Methodology to Estimate Prevalence of Congenital Heart Defects Among Adolescents in 11 New York State Counties: 2008 to 2010.

PubMed

Akkaya-Hocagil, Tugba; Hsu, Wan-Hsiang; Sommerhalter, Kristin; McGarry, Claire; Van Zutphen, Alissa

2017-11-01

Congenital heart defects (CHDs) are the most common birth defects in the United States, and the population of individuals living with CHDs is growing. Though CHD prevalence in infancy has been well characterized, better prevalence estimates among children and adolescents in the United States are still needed. We used capture-recapture methods to estimate CHD prevalence among adolescents residing in 11 New York counties. The three data sources used for analysis included Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS) hospital inpatient records, SPARCS outpatient records, and medical records provided by seven pediatric congenital cardiac clinics from 2008 to 2010. Bayesian log-linear models were fit using the R package Conting to account for dataset dependencies and heterogeneous catchability. A total of 2537 adolescent CHD cases were captured in our three data sources. Forty-four cases were identified in all data sources, 283 cases were identified in two of three data sources, and 2210 cases were identified in a single data source. The final model yielded an estimated total adolescent CHD population of 3845, indicating that 66% of the cases in the catchment area were identified in the case-identifying data sources. Based on 2010 Census estimates, we estimated adolescent CHD prevalence as 6.4 CHD cases per 1000 adolescents (95% confidence interval: 6.2-6.6). We used capture-recapture methodology with a population-based surveillance system in New York to estimate CHD prevalence among adolescents. Future research incorporating additional data sources may improve prevalence estimates in this population. Birth Defects Research 109:1423-1429, 2017.© 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Estimated prevalence of compulsive buying in Germany and its association with sociodemographic characteristics and depressive symptoms.

PubMed

Mueller, Astrid; Mitchell, James E; Crosby, Ross D; Gefeller, Olaf; Faber, Ronald J; Martin, Alexandra; Bleich, Stefan; Glaesmer, Heide; Exner, Cornelia; de Zwaan, Martina

2010-12-30

The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of compulsive buying and its association with sociodemographic characteristics and depressive symptoms in a nationally representative sample of the German population using the validated German version of the Compulsive Buying Scale (CBS; Faber and O'Guinn, 1992) in order to have a direct comparison with U.S. findings. The point prevalence of compulsive buying in the weighted representative sample (N=2,350) was estimated to be 6.9%. This was somewhat higher than the percentage in the American sample assessed in 2004 (5.8%). No significant difference was found between women and men (6.9% and 6.8%, respectively). Age was inversely related to the prevalence of compulsive buying. Individuals with compulsive buying reported more depressive symptoms assessed via the German version of the Brief Patient Health Questionnaire Mood Scale (PHQ-9). Further research on this topic is needed to establish a clearer delineation of when excessive buying is clinically significant and should be treated and how it could be prevented. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Annual research review: A meta-analysis of the worldwide prevalence of mental disorders in children and adolescents.

PubMed

Polanczyk, Guilherme V; Salum, Giovanni A; Sugaya, Luisa S; Caye, Arthur; Rohde, Luis A

2015-03-01

The literature on the prevalence of mental disorders affecting children and adolescents has expanded significantly over the last three decades around the world. Despite the field having matured significantly, there has been no meta-analysis to calculate a worldwide-pooled prevalence and to empirically assess the sources of heterogeneity of estimates. We conducted a systematic review of the literature searching in PubMed, PsycINFO, and EMBASE for prevalence studies of mental disorders investigating probabilistic community samples of children and adolescents with standardized assessments methods that derive diagnoses according to the DSM or ICD. Meta-analytical techniques were used to estimate the prevalence rates of any mental disorder and individual diagnostic groups. A meta-regression analysis was performed to estimate the effect of population and sample characteristics, study methods, assessment procedures, and case definition in determining the heterogeneity of estimates. We included 41 studies conducted in 27 countries from every world region. The worldwide-pooled prevalence of mental disorders was 13.4% (CI 95% 11.3-15.9). The worldwide prevalence of any anxiety disorder was 6.5% (CI 95% 4.7-9.1), any depressive disorder was 2.6% (CI 95% 1.7-3.9), attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder was 3.4% (CI 95% 2.6-4.5), and any disruptive disorder was 5.7% (CI 95% 4.0-8.1). Significant heterogeneity was detected for all pooled estimates. The multivariate metaregression analyses indicated that sample representativeness, sample frame, and diagnostic interview were significant moderators of prevalence estimates. Estimates did not vary as a function of geographic location of studies and year of data collection. The multivariate model explained 88.89% of prevalence heterogeneity, but residual heterogeneity was still significant. Additional meta-analysis detected significant pooled difference in prevalence rates according to requirement of funcional impairment for the

Estimating the Smoking Ban Effects on Smoking Prevalence, Quitting and Cigarette Consumption in a Population Study of Apprentices in Italy.

PubMed

Pieroni, Luca; Muzi, Giacomo; Quercia, Augusto; Lanari, Donatella; Rundo, Carmen; Minelli, Liliana; Salmasi, Luca; dell'Omo, Marco

2015-08-13

We evaluated the effects of the Italian 2005 smoking ban in public places on the prevalence of smoking, quitting and cigarette consumption of young workers. The dataset was obtained from non-computerized registers of medical examinations for a population of workers with apprenticeship contracts residing in the province of Viterbo, Italy, in the period 1996-2007. To estimate the effects of the ban, a segmented regression approach was used, exploiting the discontinuity introduced by the application of the law on apprentices' smoking behavior. It is estimated that the Italian smoking ban generally had no effect on smoking prevalence, quitting ratio, or cigarette consumption of apprentices. However, when the estimates were applied to subpopulations, significant effects were found: -1% in smoking prevalence, +2% in quitting, and -3% in smoking intensity of apprentices with at least a diploma.

Estimating the Impact of Raising Prices and Eliminating Discounts on Cigarette Smoking Prevalence in the United States.

PubMed

Marynak, Kristy L; Xu, Xin; Wang, Xu; Holmes, Carissa Baker; Tynan, Michael A; Pechacek, Terry

2016-01-01

The average retail price per pack of cigarettes is less than $6, which is substantially lower than the $10 per-pack target established in 2014 by the Surgeon General to reduce the smoking rate. We estimated the impact of three cigarette pricing scenarios on smoking prevalence among teens aged 12-17 years, young adults aged 18-25 years, and adults aged ≥26 years, by state: (1) $0.94 federal tax increase on cigarettes, as proposed in the fiscal year 2017 President's budget; (2) $10 per-pack retail price, allowing discounts; and (3) $10 per-pack retail price, eliminating discounts. We conducted Monte Carlo simulations to generate point estimates of reductions in cigarette smoking prevalence by state. We found that each price scenario would substantially reduce cigarette smoking prevalence. A $10 per-pack retail price eliminating discounts could result in 637,270 fewer smokers aged 12-17 years; 4,186,954 fewer smokers aged 18-25 years; and 7,722,460 fewer smokers aged ≥26 years. Raising cigarette prices and eliminating discounts could substantially reduce cigarette smoking prevalence as well as smoking-related death and disease.

Small area estimation in forests affected by wildfire in the Interior West

Treesearch

G. G. Moisen; J. A. Blackard; M. Finco

2004-01-01

Recent emphasis has been placed on estimating amount and characteristics of forests affected by wildfire in the Interior West. Data collected by FIA is intended for estimation over large geographic areas and is too sparse to construct sufficiently precise estimates within burn perimeters. This paper illustrates how recently built MODISbased maps of forest/nonforest and...

Estimating the prevalence of negative attitudes towards people with disability: a comparison of direct questioning, projective questioning and randomised response.

PubMed

Ostapczuk, Martin; Musch, Jochen

2011-01-01

Despite being susceptible to social desirability bias, attitudes towards people with disabilities are traditionally assessed via self-report. We investigated two methods presumably providing more valid prevalence estimates of sensitive attitudes than direct questioning (DQ). Most people projective questioning (MPPQ) attempts to reduce bias by asking interviewees to estimate the number of other people holding a sensitive attribute, rather than confirming or denying the attribute for themselves. The randomised-response technique (RRT) tries to reduce bias by assuring confidentiality through a random scrambling of the respondent's answers. We assessed negative attitudes towards people with physical and mental disability via MPPQ, RRT and DQ to compare the resulting estimates. The MPPQ estimates exceeded the DQ estimates. Employing a cheating-detection extension of the RRT, we determined the proportion of respondents disregarding the RRT instructions and computed an upper bound for the prevalence of negative attitudes. MPPQ estimates exceeded this upper bound and were thus shown to overestimate the prevalence. Furthermore, we found more negative attitudes towards people with mental disabilities than those with physical disabilities in all three questioning conditions. We recommend employing the cheating-detection variant of the RRT to gain additional insight in future studies on attitudes towards people with disabilities.

Reliability of CKD-EPI predictive equation in estimating chronic kidney disease prevalence in the Croatian endemic nephropathy area

PubMed Central

Fuček, Mirjana; Dika, Živka; Karanović, Sandra; Vuković Brinar, Ivana; Premužić, Vedran; Kos, Jelena; Cvitković, Ante; Mišić, Maja; Samardžić, Josip; Rogić, Dunja; Jelaković, Bojan

2017-01-01

Introduction Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a significant public health problem and it is not possible to precisely predict its progression to terminal renal failure. According to current guidelines, CKD stages are classified based on the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria. Aims of this study were to determine the reliability of predictive equation in estimation of CKD prevalence in Croatian areas with endemic nephropathy (EN), compare the results with non-endemic areas, and to determine if the prevalence of CKD stages 3-5 was increased in subjects with EN. Materials and methods A total of 1573 inhabitants of the Croatian Posavina rural area from 6 endemic and 3 non-endemic villages were enrolled. Participants were classified according to the modified criteria of the World Health Organization for EN. Estimated GFR was calculated using Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation (CKD-EPI). Results The results showed a very high CKD prevalence in the Croatian rural area (19%). CKD prevalence was significantly higher in EN then in non EN villages with the lowest eGFR value in diseased subgroup. Conclusions eGFR correlated significantly with the diagnosis of EN. Kidney function assessment using CKD-EPI predictive equation proved to be a good marker in differentiating the study subgroups, remained as one of the diagnostic criteria for EN. PMID:29187794

Estimating Wisconsin Asthma Prevalence Using Clinical Electronic Health Records and Public Health Data

PubMed Central

Tomasallo, Carrie D.; Hanrahan, Lawrence P.; Tandias, Aman; Chang, Timothy S.; Cowan, Kelly J.

2014-01-01

Objectives. We compared a statewide telephone health survey with electronic health record (EHR) data from a large Wisconsin health system to estimate asthma prevalence in Wisconsin. Methods. We developed frequency tables and logistic regression models using Wisconsin Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and University of Wisconsin primary care clinic data. We compared adjusted odds ratios (AORs) from each model. Results. Between 2007 and 2009, the EHR database contained 376 000 patients (30 000 with asthma), and 23 000 (1850 with asthma) responded to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System telephone survey. AORs for asthma were similar in magnitude and direction for the majority of covariates, including gender, age, and race/ethnicity, between survey and EHR models. The EHR data had greater statistical power to detect associations than did survey data, especially in pediatric and ethnic populations, because of larger sample sizes. Conclusions. EHRs can be used to estimate asthma prevalence in Wisconsin adults and children. EHR data may improve public health chronic disease surveillance using high-quality data at the local level to better identify areas of disparity and risk factors and guide education and health care interventions. PMID:24228643

Estimating Wisconsin asthma prevalence using clinical electronic health records and public health data.

PubMed

Tomasallo, Carrie D; Hanrahan, Lawrence P; Tandias, Aman; Chang, Timothy S; Cowan, Kelly J; Guilbert, Theresa W

2014-01-01

We compared a statewide telephone health survey with electronic health record (EHR) data from a large Wisconsin health system to estimate asthma prevalence in Wisconsin. We developed frequency tables and logistic regression models using Wisconsin Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and University of Wisconsin primary care clinic data. We compared adjusted odds ratios (AORs) from each model. Between 2007 and 2009, the EHR database contained 376,000 patients (30,000 with asthma), and 23,000 (1850 with asthma) responded to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System telephone survey. AORs for asthma were similar in magnitude and direction for the majority of covariates, including gender, age, and race/ethnicity, between survey and EHR models. The EHR data had greater statistical power to detect associations than did survey data, especially in pediatric and ethnic populations, because of larger sample sizes. EHRs can be used to estimate asthma prevalence in Wisconsin adults and children. EHR data may improve public health chronic disease surveillance using high-quality data at the local level to better identify areas of disparity and risk factors and guide education and health care interventions.

Prevalence and correlates of binge eating in seasonal affective disorder

PubMed Central

Donofry, Shannon D.; Roecklein, Kathryn A.; Rohan, Kelly J.; Wildes, Jennifer E.; Kamarck, Marissa L.

2014-01-01

Eating pathology in Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) may be more severe than hyperphagia during winter. Although research has documented elevated rates of subclinical binge eating in women with SAD, the prevalence and correlates of BED in SAD remain largely uncharacterized. We examined the prevalence and correlates of binge eating, weekly binge eating with distress, and BED as defined by the DSM-IV-TR in SAD. We also tested whether binge eating exhibits a seasonal pattern among individuals with BED. Two samples were combined to form a sample of individuals with SAD (N = 112). A third sample included non-depressed adults with clinical (n=12) and subclinical (n=11) BED. All participants completed the Questionnaire of Eating and Weight Patterns-Revised (QEWP-R) and modified Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire (M-SPAQ). In the SAD sample, 26.5% reported binge eating, 11.6% met criteria for weekly binge eating with distress, and 8.9% met criteria for BED. Atypical symptom severity predicted binge eating and BED. In the BED sample, 30% endorsed seasonal worsening of mood, and 26% reported a winter pattern of binge eating. The spectrum of eating pathology in SAD includes symptoms of BED, which are associated with atypical depression symptoms, but typical depression symptoms. PMID:24680872

Prevalence Estimation and Validation of New Instruments in Psychiatric Research: An Application of Latent Class Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pence, Brian Wells; Miller, William C.; Gaynes, Bradley N.

2009-01-01

Prevalence and validation studies rely on imperfect reference standard (RS) diagnostic instruments that can bias prevalence and test characteristic estimates. The authors illustrate 2 methods to account for RS misclassification. Latent class analysis (LCA) combines information from multiple imperfect measures of an unmeasurable latent condition to…

Self-Reported and Network Scale-Up Estimates of Substance Use Prevalence among University Students in Kerman, Iran.

PubMed

Zahedi, Razieh; Noroozi, Alireza; Hajebi, Ahmad; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Sharifi, Hamid; Mirzazadeh, Ali

2018-04-30

This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of substance use among university students measured by direct and indirect methods, and to calculate the visibility factor (VF) defined as ratio of indirect to direct estimates of substance use prevalence. A cross-sectional study. Using a multistage non-random sampling approach, we recruited 2157 students from three universities in Kerman, Iran, in 2016. We collected data on substance use by individual face-to-face interview using direct (i.e. self-report of their own behaviors) and indirect (NSU: Network scale up) methods. All estimates from direct and indirect methods were weighted based on inverse probability weight of sampling university. The response rate was 83.6%. The last year prevalence of water pipe, alcohol, and cigarettes indirect method was 44.6%, 18.1%, and 13.2% respectively. Corresponding figures in NSU analysis were 36.4%, 18.2%, and 16.5% respectively. In the female population, VF for all types of substance was less than male. Considerable numbers of university students used substances like a water pipe, alcohol, and cigarettes. NSU seems a promising method, especially among male students. Among female students, direct method provided more reliable results mainly due to transmission and prestige biases.

Estimating affective word covariates using word association data.

PubMed

Van Rensbergen, Bram; De Deyne, Simon; Storms, Gert

2016-12-01

Word ratings on affective dimensions are an important tool in psycholinguistic research. Traditionally, they are obtained by asking participants to rate words on each dimension, a time-consuming procedure. As such, there has been some interest in computationally generating norms, by extrapolating words' affective ratings using their semantic similarity to words for which these values are already known. So far, most attempts have derived similarity from word co-occurrence in text corpora. In the current paper, we obtain similarity from word association data. We use these similarity ratings to predict the valence, arousal, and dominance of 14,000 Dutch words with the help of two extrapolation methods: Orientation towards Paradigm Words and k-Nearest Neighbors. The resulting estimates show very high correlations with human ratings when using Orientation towards Paradigm Words, and even higher correlations when using k-Nearest Neighbors. We discuss possible theoretical accounts of our results and compare our findings with previous attempts at computationally generating affective norms.

Estimating the Smoking Ban Effects on Smoking Prevalence, Quitting and Cigarette Consumption in a Population Study of Apprentices in Italy

PubMed Central

Pieroni, Luca; Muzi, Giacomo; Quercia, Augusto; Lanari, Donatella; Rundo, Carmen; Minelli, Liliana; Salmasi, Luca; dell’Omo, Marco

2015-01-01

Objectives: We evaluated the effects of the Italian 2005 smoking ban in public places on the prevalence of smoking, quitting and cigarette consumption of young workers. Data and Methods: The dataset was obtained from non-computerized registers of medical examinations for a population of workers with apprenticeship contracts residing in the province of Viterbo, Italy, in the period 1996–2007. To estimate the effects of the ban, a segmented regression approach was used, exploiting the discontinuity introduced by the application of the law on apprentices’ smoking behavior. Results: It is estimated that the Italian smoking ban generally had no effect on smoking prevalence, quitting ratio, or cigarette consumption of apprentices. However, when the estimates were applied to subpopulations, significant effects were found: −1% in smoking prevalence, +2% in quitting, and −3% in smoking intensity of apprentices with at least a diploma. PMID:26287220

An estimate of the prevalence of developmental phonagnosia.

PubMed

Shilowich, Bryan E; Biederman, Irving

2016-08-01

A web-based survey estimated the distribution of voice recognition abilities with a focus on determining the prevalence of developmental phonagnosia, the inability to identify a familiar person based on their voice. Participants matched clips of 50 celebrity voices to 1-4 named headshots of celebrities whose voices they had previously rated for familiarity. Given a strong correlation between rated familiarity and recognition performance, a residual was calculated based on the average familiarity rating on each trial, which thus constituted each respondent's voice recognition ability that could not be accounted for by familiarity. 3.2% of the respondents (23 of 730 participants) had residual recognition scores 2.28 SDs below the mean (whereas 8 or 1.1% would have been expected from a normal distribution). They also judged whether they could imagine the voice of five familiar celebrities. Individuals who had difficulty in imagining voices were also generally below average in their accuracy of recognition. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Early Childhood Developmental Status in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: National, Regional, and Global Prevalence Estimates Using Predictive Modeling.

PubMed

McCoy, Dana Charles; Peet, Evan D; Ezzati, Majid; Danaei, Goodarz; Black, Maureen M; Sudfeld, Christopher R; Fawzi, Wafaie; Fink, Günther

2016-06-01

The development of cognitive and socioemotional skills early in life influences later health and well-being. Existing estimates of unmet developmental potential in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are based on either measures of physical growth or proxy measures such as poverty. In this paper we aim to directly estimate the number of children in LMICs who would be reported by their caregivers to show low cognitive and/or socioemotional development. The present paper uses Early Childhood Development Index (ECDI) data collected between 2005 and 2015 from 99,222 3- and 4-y-old children living in 35 LMICs as part of the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) programs. First, we estimate the prevalence of low cognitive and/or socioemotional ECDI scores within our MICS/DHS sample. Next, we test a series of ordinary least squares regression models predicting low ECDI scores across our MICS/DHS sample countries based on country-level data from the Human Development Index (HDI) and the Nutrition Impact Model Study. We use cross-validation to select the model with the best predictive validity. We then apply this model to all LMICs to generate country-level estimates of the prevalence of low ECDI scores globally, as well as confidence intervals around these estimates. In the pooled MICS and DHS sample, 14.6% of children had low ECDI scores in the cognitive domain, 26.2% had low socioemotional scores, and 36.8% performed poorly in either or both domains. Country-level prevalence of low cognitive and/or socioemotional scores on the ECDI was best represented by a model using the HDI as a predictor. Applying this model to all LMICs, we estimate that 80.8 million children ages 3 and 4 y (95% CI 48.1 million, 113.6 million) in LMICs experienced low cognitive and/or socioemotional development in 2010, with the largest number of affected children in sub-Saharan Africa (29.4.1 million; 43.8% of children ages 3 and 4 y), followed by

Prevalence of Noninfectious Uveitis in the United States: A Claims-Based Analysis.

PubMed

Thorne, Jennifer E; Suhler, Eric; Skup, Martha; Tari, Samir; Macaulay, Dendy; Chao, Jingdong; Ganguli, Arijit

2016-11-01

US population suggests that NIU affected approximately 298 801 American adults (95% CI, 290 512-307 324) and 21 879 children (95% CI, 19 360-24 626) in 2015. The estimated prevalence of NIU was 121 cases per 100 000 for adults (95% CI, 117.5-124.3) and 29 per 100 000 for children (95% CI, 26.1-33.2). Prevalence was estimated using administrative claims from a commercially insured population, which may have a different prevalence than other segments of the US population. A better understanding of the prevalence of NIU will help to determine the number of patients affected.

Are cannabis prevalence estimates comparable across countries and regions? A cross-cultural validation using search engine query data.

PubMed

Steppan, Martin; Kraus, Ludwig; Piontek, Daniela; Siciliano, Valeria

2013-01-01

Prevalence estimation of cannabis use is usually based on self-report data. Although there is evidence on the reliability of this data source, its cross-cultural validity is still a major concern. External objective criteria are needed for this purpose. In this study, cannabis-related search engine query data are used as an external criterion. Data on cannabis use were taken from the 2007 European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs (ESPAD). Provincial data came from three Italian nation-wide studies using the same methodology (2006-2008; ESPAD-Italia). Information on cannabis-related search engine query data was based on Google search volume indices (GSI). (1) Reliability analysis was conducted for GSI. (2) Latent measurement models of "true" cannabis prevalence were tested using perceived availability, web-based cannabis searches and self-reported prevalence as indicators. (3) Structure models were set up to test the influences of response tendencies and geographical position (latitude, longitude). In order to test the stability of the models, analyses were conducted on country level (Europe, US) and on provincial level in Italy. Cannabis-related GSI were found to be highly reliable and constant over time. The overall measurement model was highly significant in both data sets. On country level, no significant effects of response bias indicators and geographical position on perceived availability, web-based cannabis searches and self-reported prevalence were found. On provincial level, latitude had a significant positive effect on availability indicating that perceived availability of cannabis in northern Italy was higher than expected from the other indicators. Although GSI showed weaker associations with cannabis use than perceived availability, the findings underline the external validity and usefulness of search engine query data as external criteria. The findings suggest an acceptable relative comparability of national (provincial) prevalence

Eszopiclone and Zolpidem Do Not Affect the Prevalence of the Low Arousal Threshold Phenotype

PubMed Central

Smith, Patrick R.; Sheikh, Karen L.; Costan-Toth, Camille; Forsthoefel, Derek; Bridges, Edward; Andrada, Teotimo F.; Holley, Aaron B.

2017-01-01

Study Objectives: We sought to determine whether non benzodiazepine sedative hypnotics (NBSH) reduce the occurrence of the low arousal threshold (LAT) phenotype. Methods: Consecutive patients with suspected obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) referred for polysomnography (PSG) had demographic and PSG data abstracted. LAT was estimated using PSG criteria. After adjusting for pretest probability (PTP) for OSA, we calculated the effect that premedication with NBSHs has on LAT prevalence. Results: Five hundred seventy-nine patients with a mean age and body mass index of 42.2 ± 10.1 y and 28.9 ± 4.5 kg/m2, respectively, had data available for analysis. Most patients (444, or 80.9%) had a LAT, and administering a NBSH (zolpidem or eszopiclone) on the same night as the PSG did not change LAT prevalence (NBSH: 339 (83.3%) versus no drug: 100 (80.6%); p = 0.50). Adjusting for PTP, neither administration of eszopiclone (odds ratio 0.80 (95% confidence interval: 0.33–2.0); 0.69) nor zolpidem (odds ratio 1.65 (95% confidence interval: 0.8–3.5); p = 0.19) reduced the odds that a patient had a LAT. NBSHs did not change the mean SpO2 nadir, percentage hypopneas, or apnea-hypopnea index. There was no association between zolpidem or eszopiclone dosing and SpO2 nadir (zolpidem: β = −0.69, p = 0.80; eszopiclone: β = −1.53, p = 0.68), percentage hypopneas (zolpidem: β = 2.2, p = 0.43; eszopiclone β = −6.2, p = 0.46), or apnea-hypopnea index (zolpidem: β = 3.1, p = 0.22; eszopiclone: β = 2.6, p = 0.39). Conclusions: The LAT is common in our population and NBSH premedication does not alter its occurrence. Further studies are needed to determine how the LAT can be optimally managed to improve OSA treatment. Citation: Smith PR, Sheikh KL, Costan-Toth C, Forsthoefel D, Bridges E, Andrada TF, Holley AB. Eszopiclone and zolpidem do not affect the prevalence of the low arousal threshold phenotype. J Clin Sleep Med. 2017;13(1):115–119. PMID:27784413

The impact of case definition on attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder prevalence estimates in community-based samples of school-aged children.

PubMed

McKeown, Robert E; Holbrook, Joseph R; Danielson, Melissa L; Cuffe, Steven P; Wolraich, Mark L; Visser, Susanna N

2015-01-01

To determine the impact of varying attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) diagnostic criteria, including new DSM-5 criteria, on prevalence estimates. Parent and teacher reports identified high- and low-screen children with ADHD from elementary schools in 2 states that produced a diverse overall sample. The parent interview stage included the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children-IV (DISC-IV), and up to 4 additional follow-up interviews. Weighted prevalence estimates, accounting for complex sampling, quantified the impact of varying ADHD criteria using baseline and the final follow-up interview data. At baseline 1,060 caregivers were interviewed; 656 had at least 1 follow-up interview. Teachers and parents reported 6 or more ADHD symptoms for 20.5% (95% CI = 18.1%-23.2%) and 29.8% (CI = 24.5%-35.6%) of children respectively, with criteria for impairment and onset by age 7 years (DSM-IV) reducing these proportions to 16.3% (CI = 14.7%-18.0%) and 17.5% (CI = 13.3%-22.8%); requiring at least 4 teacher-reported symptoms reduced the parent-reported prevalence to 8.9% (CI = 7.4%-10.6%). Revising age of onset to 12 years per DSM-5 increased the 8.9% estimate to 11.3% (CI = 9.5%-13.3%), with a similar increase seen at follow-up: 8.2% with age 7 onset (CI = 5.9%-11.2%) versus 13.0% (CI = 7.6%-21.4%) with onset by age 12. Reducing the number of symptoms required for those aged 17 and older increased the overall estimate to 13.1% (CI = 7.7%-21.5%). These findings quantify the impact on prevalence estimates of varying case definition criteria for ADHD. Further research of impairment ratings and data from multiple informants is required to better inform clinicians conducting diagnostic assessments. DSM-5 changes in age of onset and number of symptoms required for older adolescents appear to increase prevalence estimates, although the full impact is uncertain due to the age of our sample. Published by Elsevier Inc.

An examination of healthy aging across a conceptual continuum: prevalence estimates, demographic patterns, and validity.

PubMed

McLaughlin, Sara J; Jette, Alan M; Connell, Cathleen M

2012-06-01

Although the notion of healthy aging has gained wide acceptance in gerontology, measuring the phenomenon is challenging. Guided by a prominent conceptualization of healthy aging, we examined how shifting from a more to less stringent definition of healthy aging influences prevalence estimates, demographic patterns, and validity. Data are from adults aged 65 years and older who participated in the Health and Retirement Study. We examined four operational definitions of healthy aging. For each, we calculated prevalence estimates and examined the odds of healthy aging by age, education, gender, and race-ethnicity in 2006. We also examined the association between healthy aging and both self-rated health and death. Across definitions, the prevalence of healthy aging ranged from 3.3% to 35.5%. For all definitions, those classified as experiencing healthy aging had lower odds of fair or poor self-rated health and death over an 8-year period. The odds of being classified as "healthy" were lower among those of advanced age, those with less education, and women than for their corresponding counterparts across all definitions. Moving across the conceptual continuum--from a more to less rigid definition of healthy aging--markedly increases the measured prevalence of healthy aging. Importantly, results suggest that all examined definitions identified a subgroup of older adults who had substantially lower odds of reporting fair or poor health and dying over an 8-year period, providing evidence of the validity of our definitions. Conceptualizations that emphasize symptomatic disease and functional health may be particularly useful for public health purposes.

Composite Partial Likelihood Estimation Under Length-Biased Sampling, With Application to a Prevalent Cohort Study of Dementia

PubMed Central

Huang, Chiung-Yu; Qin, Jing

2013-01-01

The Canadian Study of Health and Aging (CSHA) employed a prevalent cohort design to study survival after onset of dementia, where patients with dementia were sampled and the onset time of dementia was determined retrospectively. The prevalent cohort sampling scheme favors individuals who survive longer. Thus, the observed survival times are subject to length bias. In recent years, there has been a rising interest in developing estimation procedures for prevalent cohort survival data that not only account for length bias but also actually exploit the incidence distribution of the disease to improve efficiency. This article considers semiparametric estimation of the Cox model for the time from dementia onset to death under a stationarity assumption with respect to the disease incidence. Under the stationarity condition, the semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation is expected to be fully efficient yet difficult to perform for statistical practitioners, as the likelihood depends on the baseline hazard function in a complicated way. Moreover, the asymptotic properties of the semiparametric maximum likelihood estimator are not well-studied. Motivated by the composite likelihood method (Besag 1974), we develop a composite partial likelihood method that retains the simplicity of the popular partial likelihood estimator and can be easily performed using standard statistical software. When applied to the CSHA data, the proposed method estimates a significant difference in survival between the vascular dementia group and the possible Alzheimer’s disease group, while the partial likelihood method for left-truncated and right-censored data yields a greater standard error and a 95% confidence interval covering 0, thus highlighting the practical value of employing a more efficient methodology. To check the assumption of stable disease for the CSHA data, we also present new graphical and numerical tests in the article. The R code used to obtain the maximum composite partial

Heart failure in numbers: Estimates for the 21st century in Portugal.

PubMed

Fonseca, Cândida; Brás, Daniel; Araújo, Inês; Ceia, Fátima

2018-02-01

Heart failure is a major public health problem that affects a large number of individuals and is associated with high mortality and morbidity. This study aims to estimate the probable scenario for HF prevalence and its consequences in the short-, medium- and long-term in Portugal. This assessment is based on the EPICA (Epidemiology of Heart Failure and Learning) project, which was designed to estimate the prevalence of chronic heart failure in mainland Portugal in 1998. Estimates of heart failure prevalence were performed for individuals aged over 25 years, distributed by age group and gender, based on data from the 2011 Census by Statistics Portugal. The expected demographic changes, particularly the marked aging of the population, mean that a large number of Portuguese will likely be affected by this syndrome. Assuming that current clinical practices are maintained, the prevalence of heart failure in mainland Portugal will increase by 30% by 2035 and by 33% by 2060, compared to 2011, resulting in 479 921 and 494 191 affected individuals, respectively. In addition to the large number of heart failure patients expected, it is estimated that the hospitalizations and mortality associated with this syndrome will significantly increase its economic impact. Therefore, it is extremely important to raise awareness of this syndrome, as this will favor diagnosis and early referral of patients, facilitating better management of heart failure and helping to decrease the burden it imposes on Portugal. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Factors Affecting Prostate Volume Estimation in Computed Tomography Images

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Cheng-Hsiu; Wang, Shyh-Jen; Institute of Biomedical Engineering, National Yang Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan

2011-04-01

The aim of this study was to investigate how apex-localizing methods and the computed tomography (CT) slice thickness affected the CT-based prostate volume estimation. Twenty-eight volunteers underwent evaluations of prostate volume by CT, where the contour segmentations were performed by three observers. The bottom of ischial tuberosities (ITs) and the bulb of the penis were used as reference positions to locate the apex, and the distances to the apex were recorded as 1.3 and 2.0 cm, respectively. Interobserver variations to locate ITs and the bulb of the penis were, on average, 0.10 cm (range 0.03-0.38 cm) and 0.30 cm (rangemore » 0.00-0.98 cm), respectively. The range of CT slice thickness varied from 0.08-0.48 cm and was adopted to examine the influence of the variation on volume estimation. The volume deviation from the reference case (0.08 cm), which increases in tandem with the slice thickness, was within {+-} 3 cm{sup 3}, regardless of the adopted apex-locating reference positions. In addition, the maximum error of apex identification was 1.5 times of slice thickness. Finally, based on the precise CT films and the methods of apex identification, there were strong positive correlation coefficients for the estimated prostate volume by CT and the transabdominal ultrasonography, as found in the present study (r > 0.87; p < 0.0001), and this was confirmed by Bland-Altman analysis. These results will help to identify factors that affect prostate volume calculation and to contribute to the improved estimation of the prostate volume based on CT images.« less

Factors affecting prevalence and abundance of A.perfoliata infections in horses from south-eastern Poland.

PubMed

Tomczuk, Krzysztof; Grzybek, Maciej; Szczepaniak, Klaudiusz; Studzińska, Maria; Demkowska-Kutrzepa, Marta; Roczeń-Karczmarz, Monika; Abbass, Zahrai Abdulhammza; Kostro, Krzysztof; Junkuszew, Andrzej

2017-11-15

Equine Anoplocephalosis constitute a significant problem in horses worldwide. The aim of this study was to analyse intrinsic (host age and sex) and extrinsic (management type, pasture type and moisture) factors that influence the prevalence and FEC of A. perfoliata infections. Faecal samples were collected from 994 horses managed in studs or individually between 2012 and 2014. The Sedimentation-flotation method was applied for coproscopic analysis, and faecal egg counts were calculated. The overall prevalence was 25.1% (21.4-29.0) with the highest prevalence (36.1% [28.1-44.8]) found in horses 10-20 years old. The individuals kept in studs showed three times higher A. perfoliata prevalence compared to the ones managed individually. The prevalence significantly differed between pasture types, with individuals kept in studs (37.6% [34.3-40.9]) showing four times higher prevalence than horses kept individually (9.2% [4.8-16.5]). More horses kept on watery (42.0% [36.6-47.6]) and semi-watery (35.9% [31.3-40.7]) pastures were infected than those on dry (6.6% [4.6-9.2]) pastures. The overall A. perfoliata FEC in all examined individual was 2.67 and differed within sex, with mares showing 4.3 - times higher FEC of infection than stallions. Horses bred in studs (3.65±0.289) showed higher FEC than these bred individually (1.28±0.198). There was the effect of pasture type on A. perfoliata FEC, with horses kept on joint pastures (4.06±0.29) showing higher FEC than individuals kept individually (0.88±0.23). Pasture moisture significantly affected A. perfoliata FEC with the highest FECs in horses from watery pastures. Horses bred on dry pastures showed 16 times lower FEC than horses bred on watery pastures. Host age also significantly affected A. perfoliata FEC, with the oldest individuals showing the highest mean FEC. The presented analysis of intrinsic and extrinsic factors may help to overcome A. perfoliata infections in horses in different breeding systems

Trends in adult chlamydia and gonorrhoea prevalence, incidence and urethral discharge case reporting in Mongolia from 1995 to 2016 - estimates using the Spectrum-STI model.

PubMed

Badrakh, Jugderjav; Zayasaikhan, Setsen; Jagdagsuren, Davaalkham; Enkhbat, Erdenetungalag; Jadambaa, Narantuya; Munkhbaatar, Sergelen; Taylor, Melanie; Rowley, Jane; Mahiané, Guy; Korenromp, Eline

2017-01-01

To estimate Mongolia's prevalence and incidence trends of gonorrhoea and chlamydia in women and men 15-49 years old to inform control of STIs and HIV, a national health sector priority. We applied the Spectrum-STI estimation model, fitting data from two national population surveys (2001 and 2008) and from routine gonorrhoea screening of pregnant women in antenatal care (1997 to 2016) adjusted for diagnostic test performance, male/female differences and missing high-risk populations. Prevalence and incidence estimates were then used to assess completeness of national case reporting. Gonorrhoea prevalence was estimated at 3.3% (95% confidence interval, 1.6-3.9%) in women and 2.9% (1.6-4.1%) in men in 2016; chlamydia prevalence levels were 19.5% (17.3-21.9%) and 15.6% (10.0-21.2%), respectively. Corresponding new incident cases in women and men in 2016 totalled 60 334 (36 147 to 121 933) and 76 893 (35 639 to 254 913) for gonorrhoea and 131 306 (84 232 to 254 316) and 148 162 (71 885 to 462 588) for chlamydia. Gonorrhoea and chlamydia prevalence declined by an estimated 33% and 11%, respectively from 2001 to 2016.Comparing numbers of symptomatic and treated cases estimated by Spectrum with gonorrhoea case reports suggests that 15% of symptomatic treated gonorrhoea cases were reported in 2016; only a minority of chlamydia episodes were reported as male urethral discharge cases. Gonorrhoea and chlamydia prevalence are estimated to have declined in Mongolia during the early 2000s, possibly associated with syndromic management in primary care facilities and improving treatment coverage since 2001 and scale up of HIV/STI prevention interventions since 2003. However, prevalence remains high with most gonorrhoea and chlamydia cases not treated or recorded in the public health system.

Low Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate Is Prevalent among North Korean Refugees in South Korea

PubMed Central

Song, Young-Soo

2018-01-01

Background The number of North Korean refugees entering South Korea is rising. Few studies have investigated the risk of non-communicable disease in North Korean refugees. Moreover, kidney insufficiency, a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, has not been studied in this population. We compared the prevalence of non-communicable disease and kidney function in North Korean refugees and South Koreans. Methods Our study was conducted using a case-control design. We enrolled 118 North Korean refugees from the Hana Center and selected 472 randomly sampled South Korean individuals as controls, who were age- and sex-matched with the North Korean refugees in a ratio of 1:4, from the 2014 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey database. Results The prevalence of non-communicable disease did not differ significantly between the groups; however, a low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR; <90 mL/min per 1.73 m2) was more prevalent in the North Korean refugees than in the South Korean population (52.1% vs. 29.9%, P<0.001). After adjusting for covariates and weight gain after escape, the prevalence of a low eGFR was associated with the length of residence in South Korea (odds ratio, 2.84; 95% confidence interval, 1.02–7.89). Conclusion The prevalence of non-communicable disease did not differ between North Korean refugees and the South Korean population, while a low eGFR was more prevalent in North Korean refugees than in South Koreans. Moreover, after adjusting for other covariates, the prevalence of a low eGFR in North Korean refugees was associated with the length of residence in South Korea. PMID:29788704

Low Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate Is Prevalent among North Korean Refugees in South Korea.

PubMed

Song, Young-Soo; Choi, Seong-Woo

2018-05-01

The number of North Korean refugees entering South Korea is rising. Few studies have investigated the risk of non-communicable disease in North Korean refugees. Moreover, kidney insufficiency, a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, has not been studied in this population. We compared the prevalence of non-communicable disease and kidney function in North Korean refugees and South Koreans. Our study was conducted using a case-control design. We enrolled 118 North Korean refugees from the Hana Center and selected 472 randomly sampled South Korean individuals as controls, who were age- and sex-matched with the North Korean refugees in a ratio of 1:4, from the 2014 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey database. The prevalence of non-communicable disease did not differ significantly between the groups; however, a low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR; <90 mL/min per 1.73 m 2 ) was more prevalent in the North Korean refugees than in the South Korean population (52.1% vs. 29.9%, P<0.001). After adjusting for covariates and weight gain after escape, the prevalence of a low eGFR was associated with the length of residence in South Korea (odds ratio, 2.84; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-7.89). The prevalence of non-communicable disease did not differ between North Korean refugees and the South Korean population, while a low eGFR was more prevalent in North Korean refugees than in South Koreans. Moreover, after adjusting for other covariates, the prevalence of a low eGFR in North Korean refugees was associated with the length of residence in South Korea.

Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: Does model choice affect survival estimates?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

2014-01-01

New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

Mental health of a police force: estimating prevalence of work-related depression in Australia without a direct national measure.

PubMed

Lawson, Katrina J; Rodwell, John J; Noblet, Andrew J

2012-06-01

The risk of work-related depression in Australia was estimated based on a survey of 631 police officers. Psychological wellbeing and psychological distress items were mapped onto a measure of depression to identify optimal cutoff points. Based on a sample of police officers, Australian workers, in general, are at risk of depression when general psychological wellbeing is considerably compromised. Large-scale estimation of work-related depression in the broader population of employed persons in Australia is reasonable. The relatively high prevalence of depression among police officers emphasizes the need to examine prevalence rates of depression among Australian employees.

Prevalence and correlates of binge eating in seasonal affective disorder.

PubMed

Donofry, Shannon D; Roecklein, Kathryn A; Rohan, Kelly J; Wildes, Jennifer E; Kamarck, Marissa L

2014-06-30

Eating pathology in Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) may be more severe than hyperphagia during winter. Although research has documented elevated rates of subclinical binge eating in women with SAD, the prevalence and correlates of binge eating disorder (BED) in SAD remain largely uncharacterized. We examined the prevalence and correlates of binge eating, weekly binge eating with distress, and BED as defined by the DSM-IV-TR in SAD. We also tested whether binge eating exhibits a seasonal pattern among individuals with BED. Two samples were combined to form a sample of individuals with SAD (N=112). A third sample included non-depressed adults with clinical (n=12) and subclinical (n=11) BED. All participants completed the Questionnaire of Eating and Weight Patterns-Revised (QEWP-R) and modified Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire (M-SPAQ). In the SAD sample, 26.5% reported binge eating, 11.6% met criteria for weekly binge eating with distress, and 8.9% met criteria for BED. Atypical symptom severity predicted binge eating and BED. In the BED sample, 30% endorsed seasonal worsening of mood, and 26% reported a winter pattern of binge eating. The spectrum of eating pathology in SAD includes symptoms of BED, which are associated with atypical depression symptoms, but typical depression symptoms. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing and adjusting for differences between HIV prevalence estimates derived from national population-based surveys and antenatal care surveillance, with applications for Spectrum 2013

PubMed Central

Marsh, Kimberly; Mahy, Mary; Salomon, Joshua A.; Hogan, Daniel R.

2014-01-01

Objective(s): To assess differences between HIV prevalence estimates derived from national population surveys and antenatal care (ANC) surveillance sites and to improve the calibration of ANC-derived estimates in Spectrum 2013 to more appropriately account for differences between these data. Design: Retrospective analysis of national population survey and ANC surveillance data from 25 countries with generalized epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa and 8 countries with concentrated epidemics. Methods: Adult national population survey and ANC surveillance HIV prevalence estimates were compared for all available national population survey data points for the years 1999–2012. For sub-Saharan Africa, a mixed-effects linear regression model determined whether the relationship between national population and ANC estimates was constant across surveys. A new calibration method was developed to incorporate national population survey data directly into the likelihood for HIV prevalence in countries with generalized epidemics. Results were used to develop default rules for adjusting ANC data for countries with no national population surveys. Results: ANC surveillance data typically overestimate population prevalence, although a wide variation, particularly in rural areas, is observed across countries and survey years. The new calibration method yields similar point estimates to previous approaches, but leads to an average 44% increase in the width of 95% uncertainty intervals. Conclusion: Important biases remain in ANC surveillance data for HIV prevalence. The new approach to model-fitting in Spectrum 2013 more appropriately accounts for this bias when producing national estimates in countries with generalized epidemics. In countries with concentrated epidemics, local sex ratios should be used to calibrate ANC surveillance estimates. PMID:25203158

Prevalence of chronic medical conditions among inmates in the Texas prison system.

PubMed

Harzke, Amy J; Baillargeon, Jacques G; Pruitt, Sandi L; Pulvino, John S; Paar, David P; Kelley, Michael F

2010-05-01

Given the rapid growth and aging of the US prison population in recent years, the disease profile and health care needs of inmates portend to have far-reaching public health implications. Although numerous studies have examined infectious disease prevalence and treatment in incarcerated populations, little is known about the prevalence of non-infectious chronic medical conditions in US prison populations. The purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence of selected non-infectious chronic medical conditions among inmates in the Texas prison system. The study population consisted of the total census of inmates who were incarcerated in the Texas Department of Criminal Justice for any duration from September 1, 2006 through August 31, 2007 (N=234,031). Information on medical diagnoses was obtained from a system-wide electronic medical record system. Overall crude prevalence estimates for the selected conditions were as follows: hypertension, 18.8%; asthma, 5.4%; diabetes, 4.2%; ischemic heart disease, 1.7%; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 0.96%; and cerebrovascular disease, 0.23%. Nearly one quarter (24.5%) of the study population had at least one of the selected conditions. Except for asthma, crude prevalence estimates of the selected conditions increased monotonically with age. Nearly two thirds (64.6%) of inmates who were >or=55 years of age had at least one of the selected conditions. Except for diabetes, crude prevalence estimates for the selected conditions were lower among Hispanic inmates than among non-Hispanic White inmates and African American inmates. Although age-standardized prevalence estimates for the selected conditions did not appear to exceed age-standardized estimates from the US general population, a large number of inmates were affected by one or more of these conditions. As the prison population continues to grow and to age, the burden of these conditions on correctional and community health care systems can be expected to increase.

PRISM: A Novel Research Tool to Assess the Prevalence of Pseudobulbar Affect Symptoms across Neurological Conditions

PubMed Central

Brooks, Benjamin Rix; Crumpacker, David; Fellus, Jonathan; Kantor, Daniel; Kaye, Randall E.

2013-01-01

Background Pseudobulbar affect (PBA) is a neurological condition characterized by involuntary, sudden, and frequent episodes of laughing and/or crying, which can be socially disabling. Although PBA occurs secondary to many neurological conditions, with an estimated United States (US) prevalence of up to 2 million persons, it is thought to be under-recognized and undertreated. The PBA Registry Series (PRISM) was established to provide additional PBA symptom prevalence data in a large, representative US sample of patients with neurological conditions known to be associated with PBA. Methods Participating clinicians were asked to enroll ≥20 consenting patients with any of 6 conditions: Alzheimer’s disease (AD), amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), multiple sclerosis (MS), Parkinson’s disease (PD), stroke, or traumatic brain injury (TBI). Patients (or their caregivers) completed the Center for Neurologic Study−Lability Scale (CNS-LS) and an 11-point scale measuring impact of the neurological condition on the patient’s quality of life (QOL). Presence of PBA symptoms was defined as a CNS−LS score ≥13. Demographic data and current use of antidepressant or antipsychotic medications were also recorded. Results PRISM enrolled 5290 patients. More than one third of patients (n = 1944; 36.7%) had a CNS-LS score ≥13, suggesting PBA symptoms. The mean (SD) score measuring impact of neurological condition on QOL was significantly higher (worse) in patients with CNS-LS ≥13 vs <13 (6.7 [2.5] vs. 4.7 [3.1], respectively; P<0.0001 two-sample t-test). A greater percentage of patients with CNS−LS ≥13 versus <13 were using antidepressant/antipsychotic medications (53.0% vs 35.4%, respectively; P<0.0001, chi-square test). Conclusions Data from PRISM, the largest clinic-based study to assess PBA symptom prevalence, showed that PBA symptoms were common among patients with diverse neurological conditions. Higher CNS−LS scores were associated with impaired QOL and

PRISM: a novel research tool to assess the prevalence of pseudobulbar affect symptoms across neurological conditions.

PubMed

Brooks, Benjamin Rix; Crumpacker, David; Fellus, Jonathan; Kantor, Daniel; Kaye, Randall E

2013-01-01

Pseudobulbar affect (PBA) is a neurological condition characterized by involuntary, sudden, and frequent episodes of laughing and/or crying, which can be socially disabling. Although PBA occurs secondary to many neurological conditions, with an estimated United States (US) prevalence of up to 2 million persons, it is thought to be under-recognized and undertreated. The PBA Registry Series (PRISM) was established to provide additional PBA symptom prevalence data in a large, representative US sample of patients with neurological conditions known to be associated with PBA. Participating clinicians were asked to enroll ≥20 consenting patients with any of 6 conditions: Alzheimer's disease (AD), amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), multiple sclerosis (MS), Parkinson's disease (PD), stroke, or traumatic brain injury (TBI). Patients (or their caregivers) completed the Center for Neurologic Study-Lability Scale (CNS-LS) and an 11-point scale measuring impact of the neurological condition on the patient's quality of life (QOL). Presence of PBA symptoms was defined as a CNS-LS score ≥13. Demographic data and current use of antidepressant or antipsychotic medications were also recorded. PRISM enrolled 5290 patients. More than one third of patients (n = 1944; 36.7%) had a CNS-LS score ≥13, suggesting PBA symptoms. The mean (SD) score measuring impact of neurological condition on QOL was significantly higher (worse) in patients with CNS-LS ≥13 vs <13 (6.7 [2.5] vs. 4.7 [3.1], respectively; P<0.0001 two-sample t-test). A greater percentage of patients with CNS-LS ≥13 versus <13 were using antidepressant/antipsychotic medications (53.0% vs 35.4%, respectively; P<0.0001, chi-square test). Data from PRISM, the largest clinic-based study to assess PBA symptom prevalence, showed that PBA symptoms were common among patients with diverse neurological conditions. Higher CNS-LS scores were associated with impaired QOL and greater use of antipsychotic

Comparison of Methods for Estimating Prevalence of Chronic Diseases and Health Behaviors for Small Geographic Areas: Boston Validation Study, 2013

PubMed Central

Holt, James B.; Zhang, Xingyou; Lu, Hua; Shah, Snehal N.; Dooley, Daniel P.; Matthews, Kevin A.; Croft, Janet B.

2017-01-01

Introduction Local health authorities need small-area estimates for prevalence of chronic diseases and health behaviors for multiple purposes. We generated city-level and census-tract–level prevalence estimates of 27 measures for the 500 largest US cities. Methods To validate the methodology, we constructed multilevel logistic regressions to predict 10 selected health indicators among adults aged 18 years or older by using 2013 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data; we applied their predicted probabilities to census population data to generate city-level, neighborhood-level, and zip-code–level estimates for the city of Boston, Massachusetts. Results By comparing the predicted estimates with their corresponding direct estimates from a locally administered survey (Boston BRFSS 2010 and 2013), we found that our model-based estimates for most of the selected health indicators at the city level were close to the direct estimates from the local survey. We also found strong correlation between the model-based estimates and direct survey estimates at neighborhood and zip code levels for most indicators. Conclusion Findings suggest that our model-based estimates are reliable and valid at the city level for certain health outcomes. Local health authorities can use the neighborhood-level estimates if high quality local health survey data are not otherwise available. PMID:29049020

Estimated Prevalence of People with Cognitive Impairment: Results from Nationally Representative Community and Institutional Surveys

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bernstein, Amy B.; Remsburg, Robin E.

2007-01-01

Purpose: We address how the national prevalence of cognitive impairment can be estimated from two nationally representative surveys. Design and Methods: Data are from the 1999-2001 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the 1999 National Nursing Home Survey (NNHS). The NHIS represents all community-dwelling people living in the United States,…

Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate HIV prevalence in men who have sex with men in Poland at the end of 2009.

PubMed

Rosinska, M; Gwiazda, P; De Angelis, D; Presanis, A M

2016-04-01

HIV spread in men who have sex with men (MSM) is an increasing problem in Poland. Despite the existence of a surveillance system, there is no direct evidence to allow estimation of HIV prevalence and the proportion undiagnosed in MSM. We extracted data on HIV and the MSM population in Poland, including case-based surveillance data, diagnostic testing prevalence data and behavioural data relating to self-reported prior diagnosis, stratified by age (⩽35, >35 years) and region (Mazowieckie including the capital city of Warsaw; other regions). They were integrated into one model based on a Bayesian evidence synthesis approach. The posterior distributions for HIV prevalence and the undiagnosed fraction were estimated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. To improve the model fit we repeated the analysis, introducing bias parameters to account for potential lack of representativeness in data. By placing additional constraints on bias parameters we obtained precisely identified estimates. This family of models indicates a high undiagnosed fraction [68·3%, 95% credibility interval (CrI) 53·9-76·1] and overall low prevalence (2·3%, 95% CrI 1·4-4·1) of HIV in MSM. Additional data are necessary in order to produce more robust epidemiological estimates. More effort is urgently needed to ensure timely diagnosis of HIV in Poland.

Surgical Care Required for Populations Affected by Climate-related Natural Disasters: A Global Estimation.

PubMed

Lee, Eugenia E; Stewart, Barclay; Zha, Yuanting A; Groen, Thomas A; Burkle, Frederick M; Kushner, Adam L

2016-08-10

Climate extremes will increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters worldwide.  Climate-related natural disasters were anticipated to affect 375 million people in 2015, more than 50% greater than the yearly average in the previous decade. To inform surgical assistance preparedness, we estimated the number of surgical procedures needed.   The numbers of people affected by climate-related disasters from 2004 to 2014 were obtained from the Centre for Research of the Epidemiology of Disasters database. Using 5,000 procedures per 100,000 persons as the minimum, baseline estimates were calculated. A linear regression of the number of surgical procedures performed annually and the estimated number of surgical procedures required for climate-related natural disasters was performed. Approximately 140 million people were affected by climate-related natural disasters annually requiring 7.0 million surgical procedures. The greatest need for surgical care was in the People's Republic of China, India, and the Philippines. Linear regression demonstrated a poor relationship between national surgical capacity and estimated need for surgical care resulting from natural disaster, but countries with the least surgical capacity will have the greatest need for surgical care for persons affected by climate-related natural disasters. As climate extremes increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters, millions will need surgical care beyond baseline needs. Countries with insufficient surgical capacity will have the most need for surgical care for persons affected by climate-related natural disasters. Estimates of surgical are particularly important for countries least equipped to meet surgical care demands given critical human and physical resource deficiencies.

Estimation of HPV prevalence in young women in Scotland; monitoring of future vaccine impact

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Estimation of pre-immunisation prevalence of HPV and distribution of HPV types is fundamental to understanding the subsequent impact of HPV vaccination. We describe the type specific prevalence of HPV in females aged 20–21 in Scotland who attended or defaulted from cervical screening using three specimen types; from attenders liquid based cytology and from defaulters urine or self-taken swabs. Methods Residual liquid based cytology samples (n = 2148), collected from women aged 20–21 attending for their first smear were genotyped for HPV. A sample (n = 709) from women who had defaulted from screening was also made available for HPV testing through the use of postal testing kits (either urine samples (n = 378) or self-taken swabs (n = 331)). Estimates of prevalence weighted by deprivation, and for the postal testing kit, also by reminder status and specimen type were calculated for each HPV type. The distribution of HPV types were compared between specimen types and the occurrence of multiple high-risk infections examined. The influence of demographic factors on high-risk HPV positivity and multiple infections was examined via logistic regression. Results The prevalence of any HPV in young women aged 20–21 was 32.2% for urine, 39.5% for self-taken swab, and 49.4% for LBC specimens. Infection with vaccine specific types (HPV 16, 18) or those associated with cross-protection (HPV 31, 33, 45, 51) was common. Individuals were more likely to test positive for high-risk HPV if they resided in an area of high deprivation or in a rural area. The overall distribution of HPV types did not vary between defaulters and attenders. Multiple infections occurred in 48.1% of high-risk HPV positive individuals. Excluding vaccine types the most common pairing was HPV 56 and 66. Conclusions Understanding of the pre-immunisation prevalence of HPV in young women puts Scotland in a prime position to assess the early effect of vaccination as the first highly

Estimation of HPV prevalence in young women in Scotland; monitoring of future vaccine impact.

PubMed

Kavanagh, Kimberley; Sinka, Katy; Cuschieri, Kate; Love, John; Potts, Alison; Pollock, Kevin G J; Cubie, Heather; Donaghy, Martin; Robertson, Chris

2013-11-05

Estimation of pre-immunisation prevalence of HPV and distribution of HPV types is fundamental to understanding the subsequent impact of HPV vaccination. We describe the type specific prevalence of HPV in females aged 20-21 in Scotland who attended or defaulted from cervical screening using three specimen types; from attenders liquid based cytology and from defaulters urine or self-taken swabs. Residual liquid based cytology samples (n = 2148), collected from women aged 20-21 attending for their first smear were genotyped for HPV. A sample (n = 709) from women who had defaulted from screening was also made available for HPV testing through the use of postal testing kits (either urine samples (n = 378) or self-taken swabs (n = 331)). Estimates of prevalence weighted by deprivation, and for the postal testing kit, also by reminder status and specimen type were calculated for each HPV type. The distribution of HPV types were compared between specimen types and the occurrence of multiple high-risk infections examined. The influence of demographic factors on high-risk HPV positivity and multiple infections was examined via logistic regression. The prevalence of any HPV in young women aged 20-21 was 32.2% for urine, 39.5% for self-taken swab, and 49.4% for LBC specimens. Infection with vaccine specific types (HPV 16, 18) or those associated with cross-protection (HPV 31, 33, 45, 51) was common. Individuals were more likely to test positive for high-risk HPV if they resided in an area of high deprivation or in a rural area. The overall distribution of HPV types did not vary between defaulters and attenders. Multiple infections occurred in 48.1% of high-risk HPV positive individuals. Excluding vaccine types the most common pairing was HPV 56 and 66. Understanding of the pre-immunisation prevalence of HPV in young women puts Scotland in a prime position to assess the early effect of vaccination as the first highly vaccinated cohorts of individuals enter the screening

Accounting for uncertainty in model-based prevalence estimation: paratuberculosis control in dairy herds.

PubMed

Davidson, Ross S; McKendrick, Iain J; Wood, Joanna C; Marion, Glenn; Greig, Alistair; Stevenson, Karen; Sharp, Michael; Hutchings, Michael R

2012-09-10

A common approach to the application of epidemiological models is to determine a single (point estimate) parameterisation using the information available in the literature. However, in many cases there is considerable uncertainty about parameter values, reflecting both the incomplete nature of current knowledge and natural variation, for example between farms. Furthermore model outcomes may be highly sensitive to different parameter values. Paratuberculosis is an infection for which many of the key parameter values are poorly understood and highly variable, and for such infections there is a need to develop and apply statistical techniques which make maximal use of available data. A technique based on Latin hypercube sampling combined with a novel reweighting method was developed which enables parameter uncertainty and variability to be incorporated into a model-based framework for estimation of prevalence. The method was evaluated by applying it to a simulation of paratuberculosis in dairy herds which combines a continuous time stochastic algorithm with model features such as within herd variability in disease development and shedding, which have not been previously explored in paratuberculosis models. Generated sample parameter combinations were assigned a weight, determined by quantifying the model's resultant ability to reproduce prevalence data. Once these weights are generated the model can be used to evaluate other scenarios such as control options. To illustrate the utility of this approach these reweighted model outputs were used to compare standard test and cull control strategies both individually and in combination with simple husbandry practices that aim to reduce infection rates. The technique developed has been shown to be applicable to a complex model incorporating realistic control options. For models where parameters are not well known or subject to significant variability, the reweighting scheme allowed estimated distributions of parameter values

How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, P. J.; de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

2011-12-01

Flood management is more and more adopting a risk based approach, whereby flood risk is the product of the probability and consequences of flooding. One of the most common approaches in flood risk assessment is to estimate the damage that would occur for floods of several exceedance probabilities (or return periods), to plot these on an exceedance probability-loss curve (risk curve) and to estimate risk as the area under the curve. However, there is little insight into how the selection of the return-periods (which ones and how many) used to calculate risk actually affects the final risk calculation. To gain such insights, we developed and validated an inundation model capable of rapidly simulating inundation extent and depth, and dynamically coupled this to an existing damage model. The method was applied to a section of the River Meuse in the southeast of the Netherlands. Firstly, we estimated risk based on a risk curve using yearly return periods from 2 to 10 000 yr (€ 34 million p.a.). We found that the overall risk is greatly affected by the number of return periods used to construct the risk curve, with over-estimations of annual risk between 33% and 100% when only three return periods are used. In addition, binary assumptions on dike failure can have a large effect (a factor two difference) on risk estimates. Also, the minimum and maximum return period considered in the curve affects the risk estimate considerably. The results suggest that more research is needed to develop relatively simple inundation models that can be used to produce large numbers of inundation maps, complementary to more complex 2-D-3-D hydrodynamic models. It also suggests that research into flood risk could benefit by paying more attention to the damage caused by relatively high probability floods.

The estimated risk for coronary heart disease and prevalence of dyslipidemia among workers of information technology industries in Taiwan.

PubMed

Yang, Shao-Chi; Chien, Kuo-Liong; Tsai, Wei-I; Ho, Yi-Lwun; Chen, Ming-Fong

2011-03-18

Individuals working in information technology (IT) industries suffer from high work stress, possibly causing adverse impacts on their health. However, studies of cardiovascular risk factors among these workers are lacking. The aims of this study were to evaluate the estimated risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) and prevalence of dyslipidemia among IT workers. A total of 941 employees from 11 IT companies were enrolled and the anthropometrics and serum lipid profiles were measured. The 10-year risk for CHD was calculated based on the Framingham risk score. Compared with lipid profiles in a representative sample (n=6589), IT workers had a significantly higher prevalence of obesity, hypercholesterolemia, low level of HDL-C, and high level of LDL-C in each age group. Their overall estimated 10-year risk for CHD was higher than the average risk of an age- and gender-matched population (2.91% vs. 2.79%, p=0.027). Working for more than 10h/day was associated with a higher estimated CHD risk (3.62% vs. 2.54%, p<0.01). A higher prevalence of hyperlipidemia was noted among IT workers. Their estimated 10-year CHD risk was also higher than average. More aggressive interventions to reduce the risk of CHD in this population are needed. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prevalence Estimates of Health Risk Behaviors of Immigrant Latino Men Who Have Sex with Men

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rhodes, Scott D.; McCoy, Thomas P.; Hergenrather, Kenneth C.; Vissman, Aaron T.; Wolfson, Mark; Alonzo, Jorge; Bloom, Fred R.; Alegria-Ortega, Jose; Eng, Eugenia

2012-01-01

Purpose: Little is known about the health status of rural immigrant Latino men who have sex with men (MSM). These MSM comprise a subpopulation that tends to remain "hidden" from both researchers and practitioners. This study was designed to estimate the prevalence of tobacco, alcohol, and drug use, and sexual risk behaviors of Latino MSM…

Global prevalence of dementia: a Delphi consensus study

PubMed Central

Ferri, Cleusa P; Prince, Martin; Brayne, Carol; Brodaty, Henry; Fratiglioni, Laura; Ganguli, Mary; Hall, Kathleen; Hasegawa, Kazuo; Hendrie, Hugh; Huang, Yueqin; Jorm, Anthony; Mathers, Colin; Menezes, Paulo R; Rimmer, Elizabeth; Scazufca, Marcia

2010-01-01

Summary Background 100 years after the first description, Alzheimer's disease is one of the most disabling and burdensome health conditions worldwide. We used the Delphi consensus method to determine dementia prevalence for each world region. Methods 12 international experts were provided with a systematic review of published studies on dementia and were asked to provide prevalence estimates for every WHO world region, for men and women combined, in 5-year age bands from 60 to 84 years, and for those aged 85 years and older. UN population estimates and projections were used to estimate numbers of people with dementia in 2001, 2020, and 2040. We estimated incidence rates from prevalence, remission, and mortality. Findings Evidence from well-planned, representative epidemiological surveys is scarce in many regions. We estimate that 24·3 million people have dementia today, with 4·6 million new cases of dementia every year (one new case every 7 seconds). The number of people affected will double every 20 years to 81·1 million by 2040. Most people with dementia live in developing countries (60% in 2001, rising to 71% by 2040). Rates of increase are not uniform; numbers in developed countries are forecast to increase by 100% between 2001 and 2040, but by more than 300% in India, China, and their south Asian and western Pacific neighbours. Interpretation We believe that the detailed estimates in this paper constitute the best currently available basis for policymaking, planning, and allocation of health and welfare resources. PMID:16360788

The Decreasing Prevalence of Nonrefractive Visual Impairment in Older Europeans: A Meta-analysis of Published and Unpublished Data.

PubMed

Delcourt, Cécile; Le Goff, Mélanie; von Hanno, Therese; Mirshahi, Alireza; Khawaja, Anthony P; Verhoeven, Virginie J M; Hogg, Ruth E; Anastosopoulos, Eleftherios; Cachulo, Maria Luz; Höhn, René; Wolfram, Christian; Bron, Alain; Miotto, Stefania; Carrière, Isabelle; Colijn, Johanna M; Buitendijk, Gabriëlle H S; Evans, Jennifer; Nitsch, Dorothea; Founti, Panayiota; Yip, Jennifer L Y; Pfeiffer, Norbert; Creuzot-Garcher, Catherine; Silva, Rufino; Piermarocchi, Stefano; Topouzis, Fotis; Bertelsen, Geir; Foster, Paul J; Fletcher, Astrid; Klaver, Caroline C W; Korobelnik, Jean-François

2018-03-13

To estimate the prevalence of nonrefractive visual impairment and blindness in European persons 55 years of age and older. Few visual impairment and blindness prevalence estimates are available for the European population. In addition, many of the data collected in European population-based studies currently are unpublished and have not been included in previous estimates. Fourteen European population-based studies participating in the European Eye Epidemiology Consortium (n = 70 723) were included. Each study provided nonrefractive visual impairment and blindness prevalence estimates stratified by age (10-year strata) and gender. Nonrefractive visual impairment and blindness were defined as best-corrected visual acuity worse than 20/60 and 20/400 in the better eye, respectively. Using random effects meta-analysis, prevalence rates were estimated according to age, gender, geographical area, and period (1991-2006 and 2007-2012). Because no data were available for Central and Eastern Europe, population projections for numbers of affected people were estimated using Eurostat population estimates for European high-income countries in 2000 and 2010. The age-standardized prevalence of nonrefractive visual impairment in people 55 years of age or older decreased from 2.22% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.34-3.10) from 1991 through 2006 to 0.92% (95% CI, 0.42-1.42) from 2007 through 2012. It strongly increased with age in both periods (up to 15.69% and 4.39% in participants 85 years of age or older from 1991 through 2006 and from 2007 through 2012, respectively). Age-standardized prevalence of visual impairment tended to be higher in women than men from 1991 through 2006 (2.67% vs. 1.88%), but not from 2007 through 2012 (0.87% vs. 0.88%). No differences were observed between northern, western, and southern regions of Europe. The projected numbers of affected older inhabitants in European high-income countries decreased from 2.5 million affected individuals in 2000 to 1

Adjusting HIV prevalence estimates for non-participation: an application to demographic surveillance

PubMed Central

McGovern, Mark E.; Marra, Giampiero; Radice, Rosalba; Canning, David; Newell, Marie-Louise; Bärnighausen, Till

2015-01-01

Introduction HIV testing is a cornerstone of efforts to combat the HIV epidemic, and testing conducted as part of surveillance provides invaluable data on the spread of infection and the effectiveness of campaigns to reduce the transmission of HIV. However, participation in HIV testing can be low, and if respondents systematically select not to be tested because they know or suspect they are HIV positive (and fear disclosure), standard approaches to deal with missing data will fail to remove selection bias. We implemented Heckman-type selection models, which can be used to adjust for missing data that are not missing at random, and established the extent of selection bias in a population-based HIV survey in an HIV hyperendemic community in rural South Africa. Methods We used data from a population-based HIV survey carried out in 2009 in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. In this survey, 5565 women (35%) and 2567 men (27%) provided blood for an HIV test. We accounted for missing data using interviewer identity as a selection variable which predicted consent to HIV testing but was unlikely to be independently associated with HIV status. Our approach involved using this selection variable to examine the HIV status of residents who would ordinarily refuse to test, except that they were allocated a persuasive interviewer. Our copula model allows for flexibility when modelling the dependence structure between HIV survey participation and HIV status. Results For women, our selection model generated an HIV prevalence estimate of 33% (95% CI 27–40) for all people eligible to consent to HIV testing in the survey. This estimate is higher than the estimate of 24% generated when only information from respondents who participated in testing is used in the analysis, and the estimate of 27% when imputation analysis is used to predict missing data on HIV status. For men, we found an HIV prevalence of 25% (95% CI 15–35) using the selection model, compared to 16% among those who

Prevalence and Causes of Paralysis—United States, 2013

PubMed Central

Armour, Brian S.; Courtney-Long, Elizabeth A.; Fox, Michael H.; Fredine, Heidi; Cahill, Anthony

2017-01-01

Objectives To estimate the prevalence and causes of functional paralysis in the United States. Methods We used the 2013 US Paralysis Prevalence & Health Disparities Survey to estimate the prevalence of paralysis, its causes, associated sociodemographic characteristics, and health effects among this population. Results Nearly 5.4 million persons live with paralysis. Most persons with paralysis were younger than 65 years (72.1%), female (51.7%), White (71.4%), high school graduates (64.8%), married or living with a partner (47.4%), and unable to work (41.8%). Stroke is the leading cause of paralysis, affecting 33.7% of the population with paralysis, followed by spinal cord injury (27.3%), multiple sclerosis (18.6%), and cerebral palsy (8.3%). Conclusions According to the functional definition, persons living with paralysis represent a large segment of the US population, and two thirds of them are between ages 18 and 64 years. Targeted health promotion that uses inclusion strategies to account for functional limitations related to paralysis can be undertaken in partnership with state and local health departments. PMID:27552260

Prevalence and Causes of Paralysis-United States, 2013.

PubMed

Armour, Brian S; Courtney-Long, Elizabeth A; Fox, Michael H; Fredine, Heidi; Cahill, Anthony

2016-10-01

To estimate the prevalence and causes of functional paralysis in the United States. We used the 2013 US Paralysis Prevalence & Health Disparities Survey to estimate the prevalence of paralysis, its causes, associated sociodemographic characteristics, and health effects among this population. Nearly 5.4 million persons live with paralysis. Most persons with paralysis were younger than 65 years (72.1%), female (51.7%), White (71.4%), high school graduates (64.8%), married or living with a partner (47.4%), and unable to work (41.8%). Stroke is the leading cause of paralysis, affecting 33.7% of the population with paralysis, followed by spinal cord injury (27.3%), multiple sclerosis (18.6%), and cerebral palsy (8.3%). According to the functional definition, persons living with paralysis represent a large segment of the US population, and two thirds of them are between ages 18 and 64 years. Targeted health promotion that uses inclusion strategies to account for functional limitations related to paralysis can be undertaken in partnership with state and local health departments.

Trends in HIV Prevalence, Estimated HIV Incidence, and Risk Behavior Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in Bangkok, Thailand, 2003–2007.

PubMed

van Griensven, Frits; Varangrat, Anchalee; Wimonsate, Wipas; Tanpradech, Suvimon; Kladsawad, Keratikarn; Chemnasiri, Tareerat; Suksripanich, Orapin; Phanuphak, Praphan; Mock, Philip; Kanggarnrua, Kamolset; McNicholl, Janet; Plipat, Tanarak

2010-02-01

Men who have sex with men (MSM) continue to be at high risk for HIV infection. Here we evaluate trends in HIV prevalence, estimated HIV incidence, and risk behavior among MSM in Bangkok, Thailand. Between 2003 and 2007, 3 biennial cross-sectional HIV prevalence assessments were conducted among MSM in Bangkok,Thailand, using venue-day-time sampling. Oral fluid was tested for HIV infection; demographic and behavioral data were self-collected using hand-held computers. Estimates of annual HIV incidence in young MSM were derived as follows: (number of HIV infections/sum of [current age–age at start of anal intercourse]) 3 100). Logistic and Poisson regression was used to evaluate trends in HIV prevalence,estimated HIV incidence, and risk behavior. The overall HIV prevalence increased from 17.3% in 2003 to 28.3% in 2005 to 30.8% in 2007 (P , 0.001 for trend). The estimated HIV incidence among young MSM increased from 4.1%in 2003 to 6.4% in 2005, to 7.7% in 2007 (P , 0.02 for trend). The increase in HIV prevalence from 2005 to 2007 was not statistically significant. The proportion of men reporting anal sex and casual or steady male sex partners in the past 3 months significantly decreased,whereas the proportion reporting drug use and drug use during sex significantly increased. No increase was observed in the proportion of men reporting consistent condom use. Our data suggest that after a strong increase from 2003 to 2005, the HIV prevalence among MSM in Bangkok may have begun to stabilize. Given the continuing high levels of risk behavior and the estimated high HIV incidence in young MSM,additional HIV preventive interventions are necessary.

Estimating the Prevalence of Binge Eating Disorder in a Community Sample From the United States: Comparing DSM-IV-TR and DSM-5 Criteria.

PubMed

Cossrow, Nicole; Pawaskar, Manjiri; Witt, Edward A; Ming, Eileen E; Victor, Timothy W; Herman, Barry K; Wadden, Thomas A; Erder, M Haim

2016-08-01

To estimate binge eating disorder (BED) prevalence according to DSM-5 and DSM-IV-TR criteria in US adults and to estimate the proportion of individuals meeting DSM-5 BED criteria who reported being formally diagnosed. A representative sample of US adults who participated in the National Health and Wellness Survey were asked to respond to an Internet survey (conducted in October 2013). Assessments included 3-month, 12-month, and lifetime BED prevalence based on DSM-5 and DSM-IV-TR criteria and demographics, psychiatric comorbidities, and self-esteem (Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale). Descriptive statistics are provided. Prevalence estimates were calculated using poststratification sampling weights. Of 22,397 respondents, 344 (women, n = 242; men, n = 102) self-reported symptoms consistent with DSM-5 BED symptom criteria. The 3-month, 12-month, and lifetime DSM-5 prevalence estimates (95% CIs) projected to the US population were 1.19% (1.04%-1.37%), 1.64% (1.45%-1.85%), and 2.03% (1.83%-2.26%), respectively. The 12-month and lifetime projected DSM-IV-TR prevalence estimates were 1.15% (1.00%-1.32%) and 1.52% (1.35%-1.70%), respectively. Of respondents meeting DSM-5 BED criteria in the past 12 months, 3.2% (11/344) reported receiving a formal diagnosis. Compared with non-BED respondents, respondents meeting DSM-5 BED criteria in the past 12 months were younger (mean ± SD age = 46.01 ± 14.32 vs 51.59 ± 15.80 years; P < .001), had a higher body mass index (mean ± SD = 33.71 ± 9.36 vs 27.96 ± 6.68 kg/m²; P < .001), and had lower self-esteem (mean ± SD score = 16.47 ± 6.99 vs 23.33 ± 6.06; P < .001). DSM-5 BED criteria resulted in higher BED prevalence estimates than with DSM-IV-TR criteria. Most BED respondents did not report being formally diagnosed, indicating an unmet need in BED recognition and diagnosis. © Copyright 2016 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Estimating the scale of chronic hepatitis C virus infection in the EU/EEA: a focus on migrants from anti-HCV endemic countries.

PubMed

Falla, A M; Ahmad, A A; Duffell, E; Noori, T; Veldhuijzen, I K

2018-01-16

Increasing the proportion diagnosed with and on treatment for chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is key to the elimination of hepatitis C in Europe. This study contributes to secondary prevention planning in the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) by estimating the number of CHC (anti-HCV positive and viraemic) cases among migrants living in the EU/EEA and born in endemic countries, defining the most affected migrant populations, and assessing whether country of birth prevalence is a reliable proxy for migrant prevalence. Migrant country of birth and population size extracted from statistical databases and anti-HCV prevalence in countries of birth and in EU/EEA countries derived from a systematic literature search were used to estimate caseload among and most affected migrants. Reliability of country of birth prevalence as a proxy for migrant prevalence was assessed via a systematic literature search. Approximately 11% of the EU/EEA adult population is foreign-born, 79% of whom were born in endemic (anti-HCV prevalence ≥1%) countries. Anti-HCV/CHC prevalence in migrants from endemic countries residing in the EU/EEA is estimated at 2.3%/1.6%, corresponding to ~580,000 CHC infections or 14% of the CHC disease burden in the EU/EEA. The highest number of cases is found among migrants from Romania and Russia (50-60,000 cases each) and migrants from Italy, Morocco, Pakistan, Poland and Ukraine (25-35,000 cases each). Ten studies reporting prevalence in migrants in Europe were identified; in seven of these estimates, prevalence was comparable with the country of birth prevalence and in three estimates it was lower. Migrants are disproportionately affected by CHC, account for a considerable number of CHC infections in EU/EEA countries, and are an important population for targeted case finding and treatment. Limited data suggest that country of birth prevalence can be used as a proxy for the prevalence in migrants.

Prevalence of food allergy: an overview.

PubMed

Madsen, Charlotte

2005-11-01

At present the only cure for food allergy is to avoid eating the food responsible for the allergy. Thus, food allergy or food hypersensitivity is a disease that is not only of concern to the individual who is affected but also to those involved directly and indirectly in supplying and preparing food for the food-allergic individual, and its impact on society should be evaluated on this basis. It is generally assumed that questionnaire-based studies vastly overestimate the prevalence of food hypersensitivity. The reported perceived prevalence of food hypersensitivity varies from 3.24% to 34.9%, which may be explained partly by the difference in reporting lifetime prevalence compared with point prevalence. However, of more importance is the apparent inverse correlation between response rate and prevalence (the higher the response rate, the lower the perceived prevalence). The three most-recent prevalence studies on food hypersensitivity (one on perceived food hypersensitivity and two on confirmed food hypersensitivity) all report estimates for prevalence of approximately 3%, but their criteria for including subjects as being positive are not identical, although they do overlap. Furthermore, because of differences in methodology there is no definitive information to indicate whether the prevalence of food allergy is increasing. However, the high prevalence of pollen-related food allergy in younger adults in the population suggests that the increase in pollen allergy is also being accompanied by an increase in pollen-related food allergy.

HIV-Prevalence in Tuberculosis Patients in Germany, 2002–2009: An Estimation Based on HIV and Tuberculosis Surveillance Data

PubMed Central

Fiebig, Lena; Kollan, Christian; Hauer, Barbara; Gunsenheimer-Bartmeyer, Barbara; an der Heiden, Matthias; Hamouda, Osamah; Haas, Walter

2012-01-01

Tuberculosis (TB) and HIV comorbidity is a major challenge in TB prevention and control but difficult to assess in Germany as in other countries, where data confidentiality precludes notifying the HIV status of TB patients. We aimed to estimate the HIV-prevalence in TB patients in Germany, 2002–2009, and to characterize the HIV/TB patients demographically. Data from the long-term observational open multicentre cohort ClinSurv HIV were used to identify incident TB in HIV-positive individuals. We assessed the cohort’s coverage for the nationwide HIV-positive population by contrasting ClinSurv HIV patients under antiretroviral therapy (ART) with national HIV patient numbers derived from ART prescriptions (data by Insight Health; available for 2006–2009). The HIV-prevalence in TB patients was calculated as the number of HIV/TB cases projected for Germany over all culture-positive TB notifications. From 2002 to 2009, 298 of 15,531 HIV-positive patients enrolled in the ClinSurv HIV cohort were diagnosed with TB. A 21% cohort coverage was determined. The annual estimates of the HIV-prevalence in TB patients were on average 4.5% and ranged from 3.5% (95%CI 2.3–5.1%) in 2007 to 6.6% (95%CI 5.0–8.5%) in 2005. The most recent estimate for 2009 was 4.0% (95%CI 2.6–5.9%). The 298 HIV/TB patients were characterized by a male-to-female ratio of 2.1, by a median age of 38 years at TB diagnosis, and by 59% of the patients having a foreign origin, mainly from Subsahara Africa. We provide, to our knowledge, the first estimate of the HIV-prevalence in TB patients for Germany by joint evaluation of anonymous HIV and TB surveillance data sources. The identified level of HIV in TB patients approximates available surveillance data from neighbouring countries and indicates a non-negligible HIV/TB burden in Germany. Our estimation approach is valuable for epidemiological monitoring of HIV/TB within the current legal frameworks. PMID:23145087

Physical and cognitive doping in university students using the unrelated question model (UQM): Assessing the influence of the probability of receiving the sensitive question on prevalence estimation.

PubMed

Dietz, Pavel; Quermann, Anne; van Poppel, Mireille Nicoline Maria; Striegel, Heiko; Schröter, Hannes; Ulrich, Rolf; Simon, Perikles

2018-01-01

In order to increase the value of randomized response techniques (RRTs) as tools for studying sensitive issues, the present study investigated whether the prevalence estimate for a sensitive item [Formula: see text] assessed with the unrelated questionnaire method (UQM) is influenced by changing the probability of receiving the sensitive question p. A short paper-and-pencil questionnaire was distributed to 1.243 university students assessing the 12-month prevalence of physical and cognitive doping using two versions of the UQM with different probabilities for receiving the sensitive question (p ≈ 1/3 and p ≈ 2/3). Likelihood ratio tests were used to assess whether the prevalence estimates for physical and cognitive doping differed significantly between p ≈ 1/3 and p ≈ 2/3. The order of questions (physical doping and cognitive doping) as well as the probability of receiving the sensitive question (p ≈ 1/3 or p ≈ 2/3) were counterbalanced across participants. Statistical power analyses were performed to determine sample size. The prevalence estimate for physical doping with p ≈ 1/3 was 22.5% (95% CI: 10.8-34.1), and 12.8% (95% CI: 7.6-18.0) with p ≈ 2/3. For cognitive doping with p ≈ 1/3, the estimated prevalence was 22.5% (95% CI: 11.0-34.1), whereas it was 18.0% (95% CI: 12.5-23.5) with p ≈ 2/3. Likelihood-ratio tests revealed that prevalence estimates for both physical and cognitive doping, respectively, did not differ significantly under p ≈ 1/3 and p ≈ 2/3 (physical doping: χ2 = 2.25, df = 1, p = 0.13; cognitive doping: χ2 = 0.49, df = 1, p = 0.48). Bayes factors computed with the Savage-Dickey method favored the null ("the prevalence estimates are identical under p ≈ 1/3 and p ≈ 2/3") over the alternative ("the prevalence estimates differ under p ≈ 1/3 and p ≈ 2/3") hypothesis for both physical doping (BF = 2.3) and cognitive doping (BF = 5.3). The present results suggest that prevalence estimates for physical and cognitive

Adult current smoking: differences in definitions and prevalence estimates--NHIS and NSDUH, 2008.

PubMed

Ryan, Heather; Trosclair, Angela; Gfroerer, Joe

2012-01-01

To compare prevalence estimates and assess issues related to the measurement of adult cigarette smoking in the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH). 2008 data on current cigarette smoking and current daily cigarette smoking among adults ≥18 years were compared. The standard NHIS current smoking definition, which screens for lifetime smoking ≥100 cigarettes, was used. For NSDUH, both the standard current smoking definition, which does not screen, and a modified definition applying the NHIS current smoking definition (i.e., with screen) were used. NSDUH consistently yielded higher current cigarette smoking estimates than NHIS and lower daily smoking estimates. However, with use of the modified NSDUH current smoking definition, a notable number of subpopulation estimates became comparable between surveys. Younger adults and racial/ethnic minorities were most impacted by the lifetime smoking screen, with Hispanics being the most sensitive to differences in smoking variable definitions among all subgroups. Differences in current cigarette smoking definitions appear to have a greater impact on smoking estimates in some sub-populations than others. Survey mode differences may also limit intersurvey comparisons and trend analyses. Investigators are cautioned to use data most appropriate for their specific research questions.

The prevalence of mental disorders in the working population over the period of global economic crisis.

PubMed

Wang, JianLi; Smailes, Elizabeth; Sareen, Jitender; Fick, Gordon H; Schmitz, Norbert; Patten, Scott B

2010-09-01

The ongoing global economic crisis may have affected people's mental health. This study aimed to, among a sample of the working population, estimate and compare the prevalence of depressive and anxiety disorders in different time intervals from January 2008 to October 2009 and to examine the demographic and socioeconomic correlates of mental disorders. From January 2008 to October 2009, 3579 employees in Alberta were recruited using the random digit dialing method. Mental disorders were assessed using the World Health Organization's Composite International Diagnostic Interview-Auto 2.1. The lifetime and 12-month prevalence of depressive and anxiety disorders in different time intervals were estimated and compared. The 12-month prevalence of major depressive disorder (MDD) before September 1, 2008; between September 1, 2008, and March 1, 2009; and between March 1, 2009, and October 30, 2009, was 5.1%, 6.8%, and 7.6% (P = 0.03), respectively. The lifetime prevalence of dysthymia reported during the 3 periods was 0.4%, 0.7%, and 1.5% (P = 0.006), respectively. No changes in the 12-month prevalence of social phobia, panic disorder, and generalized anxiety disorder were found over time. The ongoing global economic crisis may have contributed to the increased prevalence of MDD. Future studies are needed to monitor the changes in the prevalence and to describe how the event may affect people's employment status, income, and health.

CTX-M ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae: estimated prevalence in adults in England in 2014

PubMed Central

McNulty, Cliodna A M; Lecky, Donna M; Xu-McCrae, Li; Nakiboneka-Ssenabulya, Deborah; Chung, Keun-Taik; Nichols, Tom; Thomas, Helen Lucy; Thomas, Mike; Alvarez-Buylla, Adela; Turner, Kim; Shabir, Sahida; Manzoor, Susan; Smith, Stephen; Crocker, Linda; Hawkey, Peter M

2018-01-01

Abstract Background ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBLPE) are increasing in prevalence worldwide and are more difficult to treat than non-ESBLPE. Their prevalence in the UK general population is unknown, as the only previous UK ESBLPE faecal colonization study involved patients with diarrhoea. Objectives To estimate the prevalence of CTX-M ESBLPE faecal colonization in the general adult population of England in 2014, and investigate risk factors. Methods A stratified random sample of 58 337 registered patients from 16 general practices within four areas of England were invited to participate by returning faeces specimens and self-completed questionnaires. Specimens were tested for ESBLPE and carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE). Results 2430 individuals participated (4% of those invited). The estimated prevalence of colonization with CTX-M ESBLPE in England was 7.3% (95% CI 5.6%–9.4%) (Shropshire 774 participants, 4.9% colonization; Southampton City 740 participants, 9.2%; Newham 612 participants, 12.7%; Heart of Birmingham 234 individuals, 16.0%) and was particularly high in: those born in Afghanistan (10 participants, 60.0% colonization, 95% CI 29.7%–84.2%); those born on the Indian subcontinent (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh or Sri Lanka) (259 participants, 25.0% colonization, 95% CI 18.5%–32.9%); travellers to South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka or Nepal) in the last year (140 participants, 38.5% colonization, 95% CI 27.8%–50.5%); and healthcare domestics (8 participants, unweighted 37.5% colonization, 95% CI 8.5%–75.5%). Risk factors identified included: being born in the Indian subcontinent (aOR 5.4, 95% CI 3.0–9.7); travel to South Asia (aOR 2.9, 95% CI 1.8–4.8) or to Africa, China, South or Central America, South East or Pacific Asia or Afghanistan (aOR 2.6, 95% CI 1.7–4.1) in the last year; and working as a healthcare domestic (aOR 6.2, 95% CI 1.3–31). None of the 48 participants who took co-amoxiclav in

Prevalence estimates of depression in elderly community-dwelling African Americans in Indianapolis and Yoruba in Ibadan, Nigeria.

PubMed

Baiyewu, Olusegun; Smith-Gamble, Valerie; Lane, Kathleen A; Gureje, Oye; Gao, Sujuan; Ogunniyi, Adesola; Unverzagt, Frederick W; Hall, Kathleen S; Hendrie, Hugh C

2007-08-01

This is a community-based longitudinal epidemiological comparative study of elderly African Americans in Indianapolis and elderly Yoruba in Ibadan, Nigeria. A two-stage study was designed in which community-based individuals were first screened using the Community Screening Interview for Dementia. The second stage was a full clinical assessment, which included use of the Geriatric Depression Scale, of a smaller sub-sample of individuals selected on the basis of their performance in the screening interview. Prevalence of depression was estimated using sampling weights according to the sampling stratification scheme for clinical assessment. Some 2627 individuals were evaluated at the first stage in Indianapolis and 2806 in Ibadan. All were aged 69 years and over. Of these, 451 (17.2%) underwent clinical assessment in Indianapolis, while 605 (21.6%) were assessed in Ibadan. The prevalence estimates of both mild and severe depression were similar for the two sites (p=0.1273 and p=0.7093): 12.3% (mild depression) and 2.2% (severe depression) in Indianapolis and 19.8% and 1.6% respectively in Ibadan. Some differences were identified in association with demographic characteristics; for example, Ibadan men had a significantly higher prevalence of mild depression than Indianapolis men (p<0.0001). Poor cognitive performance was associated with significantly higher rates of depression in Yoruba (p=0.0039). Prevalence of depression was similar for elderly African Americans and Yoruba despite considerable socioeconomic and cultural differences between these populations.

Prevalence estimates of depression in elderly community-dwelling African Americans in Indianapolis and Yoruba in Ibadan, Nigeria

PubMed Central

Baiyewu, Olusegun; Smith-Gamble, Valerie; Lane, Kathleen A.; Gureje, Oye; Gao, Sujuan; Ogunniyi, Adesola; Unverzagt, Frederick W.; Hall, Kathleen S.; Hendrie, Hugh C.

2010-01-01

Background This is a community-based longitudinal epidemiological comparative study of elderly African Americans in Indianapolis and elderly Yoruba in Ibadan, Nigeria. Method A two-stage study was designed in which community-based individuals were first screened using the Community Screening Interview for Dementia. The second stage was a full clinical assessment, which included use of the Geriatric Depression Scale, of a smaller sub-sample of individuals selected on the basis of their performance in the screening interview. Prevalence of depression was estimated using sampling weights according to the sampling stratification scheme for clinical assessment. Results Some 2627 individuals were evaluated at the first stage in Indianapolis and 2806 in Ibadan. All were aged 69 years and over. Of these, 451 (17.2%) underwent clinical assessment in Indianapolis, while 605 (21.6%) were assessed in Ibadan. The prevalence estimates of both mild and severe depression were similar for the two sites (p = 0.1273 and p = 0.7093): 12.3% (mild depression) and 2.2% (severe depression) in Indianapolis and 19.8% and 1.6% respectively in Ibadan. Some differences were identified in association with demographic characteristics; for example, Ibadan men had a significantly higher prevalence of mild depression than Indianapolis men (p < 0.0001). Poor cognitive performance was associated with significantly higher rates of depression in Yoruba (p = 0.0039). Conclusion Prevalence of depression was similar for elderly African Americans and Yoruba despite considerable socioeconomic and cultural differences between these populations. PMID:17506912

Prevalence and estimated incidence of blood-borne viral pathogen infection in organ and tissue donors from northern Alberta.

PubMed

Zahariadis, G; Plitt, S S; O'Brien, S; Yi, Q-L; Fan, W; Preiksaitis, J K

2007-01-01

To determine the potential safety benefit of introducing nucleic acid testing (NAT) in tissue and organ donors, the risk of virus transmission was examined in a Canadian population. Anonymous data on Northern Alberta tissue and organ donors from 1998 to 2004 were used to determine the seroprevalence and estimate the seroincidence and residual risk of HIV, HBV, HCV and HTLV infection. Of the 3372 donors identified, 71.1% were surgical bone, 13.2% were living organ and 15.6% were deceased organ/tissue donors. Seroprevalence was: HIV 0.00%, HBV 0.09%, HCV 0.48% and HTLV 0.03%. Incidence (/100,000 p-yrs) and residual risks (/100,000 donors) could only be estimated for HBV (24.2 and 3.9) and HCV (11.2 and 2.2). Risk estimates were higher for deceased donors than surgical bone donors. HCV had the highest prevalence and HBV had the highest estimated incidence. HIV and HTLV risks were extremely low precluding accurate quantification. In this region of low overall viral prevalence, HCV NAT would be most effective in deceased organ donors. In surgical bone donors the cost of implementing NAT is high without significant added safety benefit.

Producer estimates of prevalence and perceived importance of lameness in dairy herds with tiestalls, freestalls, and automated milking systems.

PubMed

Cutler, J H Higginson; Rushen, J; de Passillé, A M; Gibbons, J; Orsel, K; Pajor, E; Barkema, H W; Solano, L; Pellerin, D; Haley, D; Vasseur, E

2017-12-01

Lameness is one of the most important welfare and productivity concerns in the dairy industry. Our objectives were to obtain producers' estimates of its prevalence and their perceptions of lameness, and to investigate how producers monitor lameness in tiestall (TS), freestall with milking parlor (FS), and automated milking system (AMS) herds. Forty focal cows per farm in 237 Canadian dairy herds were scored for lameness by trained researchers. On the same day, the producers completed a questionnaire. Mean herd-level prevalence of lameness estimated by producers was 9.0% (±0.9%; ±SE), whereas the researchers observed a mean prevalence of 22.2% (±0.9%). Correlation between producer- and researcher-estimated lameness prevalence was low (r = 0.19) and mean researcher prevalence was 1.6, 1.8, and 4.1 times higher in AMS, FS, and TS farms, respectively. A total of 48% of producers thought lameness was a moderate or major problem in their herds (TS = 34%; AMS =53%; FS = 59%). One third of producers considered lameness the highest ranked health problem they were trying to control, whereas two-thirds of producers (TS = 43%; AMS = 63%; FS = 71%) stated that they had made management changes to deal with lameness in the past 2 yr. Almost all producers (98%) stated they routinely check cows to identify new cases of lameness; however, 40% of producers did not keep records of lameness (AMS = 24%; FS = 23%; TS = 60%). A majority (69%) of producers treated lame cows themselves immediately after detection, whereas 13% relied on hoof-trimmer or veterinarians to plan treatment. Producers are aware of lameness as an issue in dairy herds and almost all monitor lameness as part of their daily routine. However, producers underestimate lameness prevalence, which highlights that lameness detection continues to be difficult in in all housing systems, especially in TS herds. Training to improve detection, record keeping, identification of farm-specific risk factors, and treatment planning

Prevalence of psychotic disorders and its association with methodological issues. A systematic review and meta-analyses

PubMed Central

Martín, Carlos; Pastor, Loly

2018-01-01

Objectives The purpose of this study is to provide an updated systematic review to identify studies describing the prevalence of psychosis in order to explore methodological factors that could account for the variation in prevalence estimates. Methods Studies with original data related to the prevalence of psychosis (published between 1990 and 2015) were identified via searching electronic databases and reviewing manual citations. Prevalence estimates were sorted according to prevalence type (point, 12-months and lifetime). The independent association between key methodological variables and the mean effect of prevalence was examined (prevalence type, case-finding setting, method of confirming diagnosis, international classification of diseases, diagnosis category, and study quality) by meta-analytical techniques and random-effects meta-regression. Results Seventy-three primary studies were included, providing a total of 101 estimates of prevalence rates of psychosis. Across these studies, the pooled median point and 12-month prevalence for persons was 3.89 and 4.03 per 1000 respectively; and the median lifetime prevalence was 7.49 per 1000. The result of the random-effects meta-regression analysis revealed a significant effect for the prevalence type, with higher rates of lifetime prevalence than 12-month prevalence (p<0.001). Studies conducted in the general population presented higher prevalence rates than those carried out in populations attended in health/social services (p = 0.006). Compared to the diagnosis of schizophrenia only, prevalence rates were higher in the probable psychotic disorder (p = 0.022) and non-affective psychosis (p = 0.009). Finally, a higher study quality is associated with a lower estimated prevalence of psychotic disorders (p<0.001). Conclusions This systematic review provides a comprehensive comparison of methodologies used in studies of the prevalence of psychosis, which can provide insightful information for future epidemiological

PREVALENCE OF HELICOBACTER PYLORI TEN YEARS AGO COMPARED TO THE CURRENT PREVALENCE IN PATIENTS UNDERGOING UPPER ENDOSCOPY

PubMed Central

FRUGIS, Sandra; CZECZKO, Nicolau Gregori; MALAFAIA, Osvaldo; PARADA, Artur Adolfo; POLETTI, Paula Bechara; SECCHI, Thiago Festa; DEGIOVANI, Matheus; RAMPANAZZO-NETO, Alécio; D´AGOSTINO, Mariza D.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: Helicobacter pylori has been extensively studied since 1982 it is estimated that 50% of the world population is affected. The literature lacks studies that show the change of its prevalence in the same population over time. Aim: To compare the prevalence of H. pylori in 10 years interval in a population that was submitted to upper endoscopy in the same endoscopy service. Method: Observational, retrospective and cross-sectional study comparing the prevalence of H. pylori in two samples with 10 years apart (2004 and 2014) who underwent endoscopy with biopsy and urease. Patients were studied in three consecutive months of 2004, compared to three consecutive months of 2014. The total number of patients was 2536, and 1406 in 2004 and 1130 in 2014. Results: There were positive for H. pylori in 17 % of the sample as a whole. There was a significant decrease in the prevalence from 19.3% in 2004 to 14.1% in 2014 (p<0.005). Conclusion: There was a 5.2% reduction in the prevalence of H. pylori comparing two periods of three consecutive months with 10 years apart in two equivalent population samples. PMID:27759776

Causes and prevalence of visual impairment among adults in the United States.

PubMed

Congdon, Nathan; O'Colmain, Benita; Klaver, Caroline C W; Klein, Ronald; Muñoz, Beatriz; Friedman, David S; Kempen, John; Taylor, Hugh R; Mitchell, Paul

2004-04-01

To estimate the cause-specific prevalence and distribution of blindness and low vision in the United States by age, race/ethnicity, and gender, and to estimate the change in these prevalence figures over the next 20 years. Summary prevalence estimates of blindness (both according to the US definition of < or =6/60 [< or =20/200] best-corrected visual acuity in the better-seeing eye and the World Health Organization standard of < 6/120 [< 20/400]) and low vision (< 6/12 [< 20/40] best-corrected vision in the better-seeing eye) were prepared separately for black, Hispanic, and white persons in 5-year age intervals starting at 40 years. The estimated prevalences were based on recent population-based studies in the United States, Australia, and Europe. These estimates were applied to 2000 US Census data, and to projected US population figures for 2020, to estimate the number of Americans with visual impairment. Cause-specific prevalences of blindness and low vision were also estimated for the different racial/ethnic groups. Based on demographics from the 2000 US Census, an estimated 937 000 (0.78%) Americans older than 40 years were blind (US definition). An additional 2.4 million Americans (1.98%) had low vision. The leading cause of blindness among white persons was age-related macular degeneration (54.4% of the cases), while among black persons, cataract and glaucoma accounted for more than 60% of blindness. Cataract was the leading cause of low vision, responsible for approximately 50% of bilateral vision worse than 6/12 (20/40) among white, black, and Hispanic persons. The number of blind persons in the US is projected to increase by 70% to 1.6 million by 2020, with a similar rise projected for low vision. Blindness or low vision affects approximately 1 in 28 Americans older than 40 years. The specific causes of visual impairment, and especially blindness, vary greatly by race/ethnicity. The prevalence of visual disabilities will increase markedly during the next

Hyperhidrosis: an update on prevalence and severity in the United States.

PubMed

Doolittle, James; Walker, Patricia; Mills, Thomas; Thurston, Jane

2016-12-01

Current published estimates of the prevalence of hyperhidrosis in the United States are outdated and underestimate the true prevalence of the condition. The objectives of this study are to provide an updated estimate of the prevalence of hyperhidrosis in the US population and to further assess the severity and impact of sweating on those affected by the condition. For the purposes of obtaining prevalence, a nationally representative sample of 8160 individuals were selected using an online panel, and information as to whether or not they experience hyperhidrosis was obtained. The 393 individuals (210 female, 244 non-Hispanic white, 27 black, mean age 40.3, SE 0.64) who indicated that they have hyperhidrosis were asked further questions, including body areas impacted, severity of symptoms, age of onset, and socioemotional impact of the condition. Current results estimate the prevalence of hyperhidrosis at 4.8 %, which represents approximately 15.3 million people in the United States. Of these, 70 % report severe excessive sweating in at least one body area. In spite of this, only 51 % have discussed their excessive sweating with a healthcare professional. The main reasons are a belief that hyperhidrosis is not a medical condition and that no treatment options exist. The current study's findings with regard to age of onset and prevalence by body area generally align with the previous research. However, current findings suggest that the severity and prevalence are both higher than previously thought, indicating a need for greater awareness of the condition and its associated treatment options among medical professionals.

Estimating prevalence trends in adult gonorrhoea and syphilis in low- and middle-income countries with the Spectrum-STI model: results for Zimbabwe and Morocco from 1995 to 2016

PubMed Central

Korenromp, Eline L; Mahiané, Guy; Rowley, Jane; Nagelkerke, Nico; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Ndowa, Francis; El-Kettani, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Mayaud, Philippe; Chico, R Matthew; Pretorius, Carel; Hecht, Kendall; Wi, Teodora

2017-01-01

Objective To develop a tool for estimating national trends in adult prevalence of sexually transmitted infections by low- and middle-income countries, using standardised, routinely collected programme indicator data. Methods The Spectrum-STI model fits time trends in the prevalence of active syphilis through logistic regression on prevalence data from antenatal clinic-based surveys, routine antenatal screening and general population surveys where available, weighting data by their national coverage and representativeness. Gonorrhoea prevalence was fitted as a moving average on population surveys (from the country, neighbouring countries and historic regional estimates), with trends informed additionally by urethral discharge case reports, where these were considered to have reasonably stable completeness. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, high-risk populations not sampled, urban/rural and male/female prevalence ratios, using WHO's assumptions from latest global and regional-level estimations. Uncertainty intervals were obtained by bootstrap resampling. Results Estimated syphilis prevalence (in men and women) declined from 1.9% (95% CI 1.1% to 3.4%) in 2000 to 1.5% (1.3% to 1.8%) in 2016 in Zimbabwe, and from 1.5% (0.76% to 1.9%) to 0.55% (0.30% to 0.93%) in Morocco. At these time points, gonorrhoea estimates for women aged 15–49 years were 2.5% (95% CI 1.1% to 4.6%) and 3.8% (1.8% to 6.7%) in Zimbabwe; and 0.6% (0.3% to 1.1%) and 0.36% (0.1% to 1.0%) in Morocco, with male gonorrhoea prevalences 14% lower than female prevalence. Conclusions This epidemiological framework facilitates data review, validation and strategic analysis, prioritisation of data collection needs and surveillance strengthening by national experts. We estimated ongoing syphilis declines in both Zimbabwe and Morocco. For gonorrhoea, time trends were less certain, lacking recent population-based surveys. PMID:28325771

[Estimates of the prevalence of child malnutrition in Brazilian municipalities in 2006].

PubMed

Benício, Maria Helena D'Aquino; Martins, Ana Paula Bortoletto; Venancio, Sonia Isoyama; Barros, Aluísio Jardim Dornellas de

2013-06-01

To estimate the prevalence of malnutrition in children for all Brazilian municipalities. A multilevel logistic regression model was used to estimate the individual probability of malnutrition in 5,507 Brazilian municipalities in 2006, in terms of predictive factors grouped according to hierarchical levels. The response variable was child malnutrition (children aged from six to 59 months with height for age and sex below -2 z-scores, according to the World Health Organization standard). The predictive variables were determinants of malnutrition measured similarly by the National Demographics and Health Survey-2006 and the Sample from the 2000 Demographic Census. At level 1 (individual): sex and age, level 2 (household): socioeconomic variables, water and indoor plumbing, urban or rural area and level 3 (municipal): location of the municipality and coverage of the Family Health Strategy (FHS) in 2006. The study detected a statistically significant chance of malnutrition in male children, those living in households with two or more individuals per room, those belonging to the lowest quintiles of the socioeconomic score, those with three or more children under five in the household, those with no access to running water or located in the North. There was a negative dose-response association between FHS coverage and the chance of malnutrition (p = 0.007). FHS coverage in the municipality equal to or greater than 70% showed a 45% reduction in the chance of infant malnutrition. Estimates of the prevalence of child malnutrition show that most of the cities have the risk of malnutrition under control, very low or low. Risks of greater magnitude exist only in 158 municipalities in the North Region. Childhood malnutrition as a public health problem is concentrated in the cities of the North region, where FHS coverage is lower. A protective effect of FHS in relation to child malnutrition was found in the country as a whole, irrespective of other determinants of the problem.

Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence in Quebec.

PubMed

Bernatsky, Sasha; Dekis, Alaa; Hudson, Marie; Pineau, Christian A; Boire, Gilles; Fortin, Paul R; Bessette, Louis; Jean, Sonia; Chetaille, Ann L; Belisle, Patrick; Bergeron, Louise; Feldman, Debbie Ehrmann; Joseph, Lawrence

2014-12-19

To estimate rheumatoid arthritis (RA) prevalence in Quebec using administrative health data, comparing across regions. Cases of RA were ascertained from physician billing and hospitalization data, 1992-2008. We used three case definitions: 1) ≥ 2 billing diagnoses, submitted by any physician, ≥ 2 months apart, but within 2 years; 2) ≥ 1 diagnosis, by a rheumatologist; 3) ≥1 hospitalization diagnosis (all based on ICD-9 code 714, and ICD-10 code M05). We combined data across these three case definitions, using Bayesian hierarchical latent class models to estimate RA prevalence, adjusting for the imperfect sensitivity and specificity of the data. We compared urban versus rural regions. Using our case definitions and no adjustment for error, we defined 75,760 cases for an over-all RA prevalence of 9.9 per thousand residents. After adjusting for the imperfect sensitivity and specificity of our case definition algorithms, we estimated Quebec RA prevalence at 5.6 per 1000 females and 4.1 per 1000 males. The adjusted RA prevalence estimates for older females were the highest for any demographic group (9.9 cases per 1,000), and were similar in rural and urban regions. In younger males and females, and in older males, RA prevalence estimates were lower in rural versus urban areas. Without adjustment for error inherent in administrative databases, RA prevalence in Quebec was approximately 1%, while adjusted estimates are approximately half that. The lower prevalence in rural areas, seen for most demographic groups, may suggest either true regional variations in RA risk, or under-ascertainment of cases in rural Quebec.

Prevalence-based, disease-specific estimate of the social cost of smoking in Singapore.

PubMed

Cher, Boon Piang; Chen, Cynthia; Yoong, Joanne

2017-04-07

To estimate the cost of smoking in Singapore in 2014 from the societal perspective. A prevalence-based, disease-specific approach was undertaken to estimate the smoking-attributable costs. These include direct and indirect costs of inpatient treatment, premature mortality, loss of productivity due to medical leaves and smoking breaks. In 2014, the social cost of smoking in Singapore was conservatively estimated to be at least US$479.8 million, ∼0.2% of the 2014 gross domestic product. Most of this cost was attributable to productivity losses (US$464.9 million) and largely concentrated in the male population (US$434.9 million). Direct healthcare costs amounted to US$14.9 million where ischaemic heart disease and lung cancer had the highest cost burden. The social cost of smoking is smaller in Singapore than in other Asian countries. However, there is still cause for concern. A recently observed increase in smoking prevalence, particularly among adolescent men, is likely to result in rising total cost. Most significantly, our results suggest that a large share of the overall cost burden lies outside the healthcare system or may not be highly salient to the relevant decision makers. This is partly because of the nature of such costs (indirect or intangible costs such as productivity losses are often not salient) or data limitations (a potentially significant fraction of direct healthcare expenditure may be in private primary care where costs are not systematically captured and reported). The case of Singapore thus illustrates that even in countries perceived as success stories, strong multisectoral anti-tobacco strategies and a supporting research agenda continue to be needed. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Trends in Adult Chlamydia and Gonorrhea Prevalence, Incidence and Urethral Discharge Case Reporting in Morocco over 1995-2015-Estimates Using the Spectrum-Sexually Transmitted Infection Model.

PubMed

El-Kettani, Amina; Mahiané, Guy; Bennani, Aziza; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Smolak, Alex; Rowley, Jane; Nagelkerke, Nico; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Alami, Kamal; Hançali, Amina; Korenromp, Eline

2017-09-01

Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on sexually transmitted infections (STI) trends to inform program planning and resource allocation. The Spectrum modeling tool estimated prevalence and incidence of gonorrhea and chlamydia in Morocco's 15- to 49-year-old population, based on prevalence surveys. Incident cases, broken down between symptomatic and asymptomatic, and treated versus untreated, were compared with urethral discharge (UD) case reports, to estimate reporting completeness among treated UD cases. Gonorrhea prevalence was estimated at 0.37% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.14-1.0%) in women and 0.32% (0.12-0.87%) in men in 2015; chlamydia prevalences were 3.8% (95% CI, 2.1-6.4%) and 3.0% (95% CI, 1.7-5.1%). Corresponding estimated numbers of new cases in women and men in 2015 were 79,598 (95% CI, 23,918-256,206) and 112,013 (95% CI, 28,700-307,433) for gonorrhea, and 291,908 (95% CI, 161,064-524,270) and 314,032 (95% CI, 186,076-559,133) for chlamydia. Gonorrhea and chlamydia prevalence had declined by an estimated 41% and 27%, respectively, over 1995 to 2015. Prevalence declines probably related to improved STI treatment coverage, and decreasing risk behaviors. Reporting completeness among treated UD cases was estimated at 46% to 77% in 2015. Reported UD cases corresponded to 13% of all estimated (symptomatic and asymptomatic) gonorrhea and chlamydia cases. STI declines and improvements in treatment coverage are consistent with Morocco's introduction of syndromic management in 2000, scale-up of prevention, and declining human immunodeficiency virus incidence. While gonorrhea is four-fold more common as cause of clinical UD cases than chlamydia, Morocco continues to suffer a large, untreated burden of chlamydia. Reliable monitoring of both STIs requires new periodic surveys and/or novel forms of affordable surveillance beyond high-risk populations.

Trends in adult chlamydia and gonorrhoea prevalence, incidence and urethral discharge case reporting in Mongolia from 1995 to 2016 – estimates using the Spectrum-STI model

PubMed Central

Badrakh, Jugderjav; Zayasaikhan, Setsen; Jagdagsuren, Davaalkham; Enkhbat, Erdenetungalag; Jadambaa, Narantuya; Munkhbaatar, Sergelen; Taylor, Melanie; Rowley, Jane; Mahiané, Guy

2017-01-01

Objective To estimate Mongolia’s prevalence and incidence trends of gonorrhoea and chlamydia in women and men 15–49 years old to inform control of STIs and HIV, a national health sector priority. Methods We applied the Spectrum-STI estimation model, fitting data from two national population surveys (2001 and 2008) and from routine gonorrhoea screening of pregnant women in antenatal care (1997 to 2016) adjusted for diagnostic test performance, male/female differences and missing high-risk populations. Prevalence and incidence estimates were then used to assess completeness of national case reporting. Results Gonorrhoea prevalence was estimated at 3.3% (95% confidence interval, 1.6–3.9%) in women and 2.9% (1.6–4.1%) in men in 2016; chlamydia prevalence levels were 19.5% (17.3–21.9%) and 15.6% (10.0–21.2%), respectively. Corresponding new incident cases in women and men in 2016 totalled 60 334 (36 147 to 121 933) and 76 893 (35 639 to 254 913) for gonorrhoea and 131 306 (84 232 to 254 316) and 148 162 (71 885 to 462 588) for chlamydia. Gonorrhoea and chlamydia prevalence declined by an estimated 33% and 11%, respectively from 2001 to 2016. Comparing numbers of symptomatic and treated cases estimated by Spectrum with gonorrhoea case reports suggests that 15% of symptomatic treated gonorrhoea cases were reported in 2016; only a minority of chlamydia episodes were reported as male urethral discharge cases. Discussion Gonorrhoea and chlamydia prevalence are estimated to have declined in Mongolia during the early 2000s, possibly associated with syndromic management in primary care facilities and improving treatment coverage since 2001 and scale up of HIV/STI prevention interventions since 2003. However, prevalence remains high with most gonorrhoea and chlamydia cases not treated or recorded in the public health system. PMID:29487760

Stroke Prevalence in Children With Sickle Cell Disease in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Munube, Deogratias; Kasirye, Philip; Mupere, Ezekiel; Jin, Zhezhen; LaRussa, Philip; Idro, Richard; Green, Nancy S.

2018-01-01

Objectives. The prevalence of stroke among children with sickle cell disease (SCD) in sub-Saharan Africa was systematically reviewed. Methods. Comprehensive searches of PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science were performed for articles published between 1980 and 2016 (English or French) reporting stroke prevalence. Using preselected inclusion criteria, titles and abstracts were screened and full-text articles were reviewed. Results. Ten full-text articles met selection criteria. Cross-sectional clinic-based data reported 2.9% to 16.9% stroke prevalence among children with SCD. Using available sickle gene frequencies by country, estimated pediatric mortality, and fixed- and random-effects model, the number of affected individuals is projected as 29 800 (95% confidence interval = 25 571-34 027) and 59 732 (37 004-82 460), respectively. Conclusion. Systematic review enabled the estimation of the number of children with SCD stroke in sub-Saharan Africa. High disease mortality, inaccurate diagnosis, and regional variability of risk hamper more precise estimates. Adopting standardized stroke assessments may provide more accurate determination of numbers affected to inform preventive interventions. PMID:29785408

Stroke Prevalence in Children With Sickle Cell Disease in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Marks, Lianna J; Munube, Deogratias; Kasirye, Philip; Mupere, Ezekiel; Jin, Zhezhen; LaRussa, Philip; Idro, Richard; Green, Nancy S

2018-01-01

Objectives . The prevalence of stroke among children with sickle cell disease (SCD) in sub-Saharan Africa was systematically reviewed. Methods . Comprehensive searches of PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science were performed for articles published between 1980 and 2016 (English or French) reporting stroke prevalence. Using preselected inclusion criteria, titles and abstracts were screened and full-text articles were reviewed. Results . Ten full-text articles met selection criteria. Cross-sectional clinic-based data reported 2.9% to 16.9% stroke prevalence among children with SCD. Using available sickle gene frequencies by country, estimated pediatric mortality, and fixed- and random-effects model, the number of affected individuals is projected as 29 800 (95% confidence interval = 25 571-34 027) and 59 732 (37 004-82 460), respectively. Conclusion . Systematic review enabled the estimation of the number of children with SCD stroke in sub-Saharan Africa. High disease mortality, inaccurate diagnosis, and regional variability of risk hamper more precise estimates. Adopting standardized stroke assessments may provide more accurate determination of numbers affected to inform preventive interventions.

Prevalence of Sexual Dysfunctions

PubMed Central

Simons, Jeffrey; Carey, Michael P.

2008-01-01

Ten years of research that has provided data regarding the prevalence of sexual dysfunctions is reviewed. A thorough review of the literature identified 52 studies that have been published in the 10 years since an earlier review by Spector and Carey (1990). Community samples indicate a current prevalence of 0 - 3% for male orgasmic disorder, 0 - 5% for erectile disorder, and 0 - 3% for male hypoactive sexual desire disorder. Pooling current and 1-year figures provides community prevalence estimates of 7 - 10% for female orgasmic disorder and 4 - 5% for premature ejaculation. Stable community estimates of the current prevalence for the other sexual dysfunctions remain unavailable. Prevalence estimates obtained from primary care and sexuality clinic samples are characteristically higher. Although a relatively large number of studies have been conducted since Spector and Carey’s (1990) review, the lack of methodological rigor of many studies limits the confidence that can be placed in these findings. PMID:11329727

Methods for estimating comparable prevalence rates of food insecurity experienced by adults in 147 countries and areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nord, Mark; Cafiero, Carlo; Viviani, Sara

2016-11-01

Statistical methods based on item response theory are applied to experiential food insecurity survey data from 147 countries, areas, and territories to assess data quality and develop methods to estimate national prevalence rates of moderate and severe food insecurity at equal levels of severity across countries. Data were collected from nationally representative samples of 1,000 adults in each country. A Rasch-model-based scale was estimated for each country, and data were assessed for consistency with model assumptions. A global reference scale was calculated based on item parameters from all countries. Each country's scale was adjusted to the global standard, allowing for up to 3 of the 8 scale items to be considered unique in that country if their deviance from the global standard exceeded a set tolerance. With very few exceptions, data from all countries were sufficiently consistent with model assumptions to constitute reasonably reliable measures of food insecurity and were adjustable to the global standard with fair confidence. National prevalence rates of moderate-or-severe food insecurity assessed over a 12-month recall period ranged from 3 percent to 92 percent. The correlations of national prevalence rates with national income, health, and well-being indicators provide external validation of the food security measure.

Estimating gonorrhoea prevalence in young heterosexual men and women attending community-based sexual health services to inform decisions on gonorrhoea testing.

PubMed

Town, K; Furegato, M; Field, N; Hughes, G

2017-06-01

In England, dual tests detecting chlamydia and gonorrhoea are used in specialist and community-based sexual health services (SHSs). Test performance is poor when prevalence is low, therefore UK national guidelines recommend against opportunistic gonorrhoea screening unless there is a clear local public health need. While surveillance data on gonorrhoea prevalence is comprehensive in specialist SHSs, it is sparse in community SHSs. We aimed to estimate gonorrhoea prevalence in heterosexual men and women aged 15-24 attending community SHSs to inform testing care pathways. We used linear and quadratic regression to model the relationship between prevalence in community and specialist SHSs in local authorities (LAs) with available surveillance data. We applied best-fitting models to predict prevalence in community SHSs in remaining LAs. Data from community SHSs were available for 102/326 LAs. There was a weak positive association between gonorrhoea prevalence in community and specialist SHSs in corresponding LAs within (R 2 = 0·13, P = 0·058) and outside (R 2 = 0·07, P = 0·02) London. Applying best-fitting models, we estimated a median gonorrhoea prevalence of 0·5% (mean 0·6%; range 0·2%-2·7%) in heterosexuals attending community SHSs. Despite some unexplained variation, our analyses suggest gonorrhoea prevalence in young heterosexuals attending community SHSs is below 1% in most English LAs. Our findings re-inforce the current national guidelines that recommend care pathways for gonorrhoea testing in community SHSs include confirmatory testing to reduce the risk of misdiagnosis and inappropriate management.

Prevalence of Neuropathic Pain in Cancer Patients: Pooled Estimates From a Systematic Review of Published Literature and Results From a Survey Conducted in 50 Italian Palliative Care Centers.

PubMed

Roberto, Anna; Deandrea, Silvia; Greco, Maria Teresa; Corli, Oscar; Negri, Eva; Pizzuto, Massimo; Ruggeri, Fabrizio

2016-06-01

Because of the increasing body of literature on neuropathic cancer pain (NCP), an accurate estimate of its prevalence requires recurring updates. To provide this estimate using information from a systematic review and a survey. Using MEDLINE, Embase, and a previous review, we searched for studies published up to 2014 reporting data on NCP prevalence in adult cancer populations. Pooled prevalence rates from observational prospective studies were computed. The association between NCP prevalence and possible predictors was investigated for oncology and palliative settings. Prevalence rates were extracted from a questionnaire answered by 137 physicians working in 50 Italian centers of palliative care. Estimates from studies conducted in palliative settings and from the experts were analyzed separately and eventually pooled with an informative Bayesian random-effect model. Twenty-nine observational studies were identified. The overall pooled prevalence was 31.2%, with high heterogeneity; similar figures were observed when oncology and palliative settings were individually considered. A slightly higher prevalence of NCP was detected for hospice/inpatients as compared to outpatients, in both settings. The mean NCP prevalence reported by the survey experts was 44.2%; the pooled Bayesian estimate for the palliative setting corresponded to 43.0% (95% CI: 40.0-46.0). The subgroup with the lowest heterogeneity and where the literature and experts' estimates were closest is hospice/inpatients, with a pooled Bayesian prevalence rate of 34.9% (95% CI: 29.9-41.0). The systematic review and the survey suggest that more than one in three patients with cancer pain also experiences NCP. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Association between estimated fluoride intake and dental caries prevalence among 5-year-old children in Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Min-Ji; Kim, Han-Na; Jun, Eun-Joo; Ha, Jung-Eun; Han, Dong-Hun; Kim, Jin-Bom

2015-12-30

The purposes of this study were to estimate the fluoride intake from food and drink in 5-year-old Korean children, and to measure the association between estimated fluoride intake and dental caries prevalence. The study involved a secondary analysis of raw data from the 4(th) Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES; 2007-2009). The study subjects were 167 boys and 147 girls aged 5 years who had undergone both physical and nutritional examination as part of the survey. The KNHANES comprised a health questionnaire, a physical examination, and a nutritional examination. The nutritional examination of KNHANES consisted of 3 parts: a dietary life survey, a food-frequency questionnaire, and a food intake investigation. The food intake investigation used the 24-h recall method, with information being provided by the children's parents. On the basis of this information, we evaluated the fluoride content in a total of 310 food items using the hexamethyldisiloxane (HMDS)-facilitated diffusion method, modified using Taves' microdiffusion method. As part of the KNHANES survey, oral examinations were conducted at a mobile examination centre by trained dentists using dental mirrors under a fluorescent light. These examinations were performed using methods proposed by the World Health Organization. The dietary fluoride intake of 5-year-old Korean children was estimated to be 0.35 mg/day, or 0.016 mg/kg/day. The "decayed or filled surfaces" (dfs) indices of primary teeth were higher in children who had a lower dietary intake of fluoride. There was a significant inverse association between dietary fluoride intake and the prevalence of dental caries. The inverse association between dietary fluoride intake levels and prevalence of dental caries implies that the introduction of community caries prevention programmes may be beneficial. Such programmes would include water fluoridation and a fluoride supplementation programme.

Prevalence of Hearing Loss by Severity in the United States.

PubMed

Goman, Adele M; Lin, Frank R

2016-10-01

To estimate the age- and severity-specific prevalence of hearing impairment in the United States. We conducted cross-sectional analyses of 2001 through 2010 data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey on 9648 individuals aged 12 years or older. Hearing loss was defined as mild (> 25 dB through 40 dB), moderate (> 40 dB through 60 dB), severe (> 60 dB through 80 dB), or profound (> 80 dB). An estimated 25.4 million, 10.7 million, 1.8 million, and 0.4 million US residents aged 12 years or older, respectively, have mild, moderate, severe, and profound better-ear hearing loss. Older individuals displayed a higher prevalence of hearing loss and more severe levels of loss. Across most ages, the prevalence was higher among Hispanic and non-Hispanic Whites than among non-Hispanic Blacks and was higher among men than women. Hearing loss directly affects 23% of Americans aged 12 years or older. The majority of these individuals have mild hearing loss; however, moderate loss is more prevalent than mild loss among individuals aged 80 years or older. Our estimates can inform national public health initiatives on hearing loss and help guide policy recommendations currently being discussed at the Institute of Medicine and the White House.

Models for estimating and projecting global, regional and national prevalence and disease burden of asthma: protocol for a systematic review.

PubMed

Bhuia, Mohammad Romel; Nwaru, Bright I; Weir, Christopher J; Sheikh, Aziz

2017-05-17

Models that have so far been used to estimate and project the prevalence and disease burden of asthma are in most cases inadequately described and irreproducible. We aim systematically to describe and critique the existing models in relation to their strengths, limitations and reproducibility, and to determine the appropriate models for estimating and projecting the prevalence and disease burden of asthma. We will search the following electronic databases to identify relevant literature published from 1980 to 2017: Medline, Embase, WHO Library and Information Services and Web of Science Core Collection. We will identify additional studies by searching the reference list of all the retrieved papers and contacting experts. We will include observational studies that used models for estimating and/or projecting prevalence and disease burden of asthma regarding human population of any age and sex. Two independent reviewers will assess the studies for inclusion and extract data from included papers. Data items will include authors' names, publication year, study aims, data source and time period, study population, asthma outcomes, study methodology, model type, model settings, study variables, methods of model derivation, methods of parameter estimation and/or projection, model fit information, key findings and identified research gaps. A detailed critical narrative synthesis of the models will be undertaken in relation to their strengths, limitations and reproducibility. A quality assessment checklist and scoring framework will be used to determine the appropriate models for estimating and projecting the prevalence anddiseaseburden of asthma. We will not collect any primary data for this review, and hence there is no need for formal National Health Services Research Ethics Committee approval. We will present our findings at scientific conferences and publish the findings in the peer-reviewed scientific journal. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise

Human land use influences chronic wasting disease prevalence in mule deer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farnsworth, Matthew L.; Wolfe, L.L.; Hobbs, N.T.; Burnham, K.P.; Williams, E.S.; Theobald, D.M.; Conner, M.M.; Miller, M.W.

2005-01-01

Human alteration of landscapes can affect the distribution, abundance, and behavior of wildlife. We explored the effects of human land use on the prevalence of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) populations residing in north-central Colorado. We chose best approximating models estimating CWD prevalence in relation to differences in human land use, sex, and geographic location. Prevalence was higher in developed areas and among male deer, suggesting anthropogenic influences on the occurrence of disease. We also found a relatively high degree of variation in prevalence across the three study sites, suggesting that spatial patterns in disease may be influenced by other factors operating at a broader, landscape scale. Our results suggest that multiple factors, including changes in land use, differences in exposure risk between sexes, and landscape-scaled heterogeneity, are associated with CWD prevalence in north-central Colorado.

Estimates of live birth prevalence of children with Down syndrome in the period 1991-2015 in the Netherlands.

PubMed

de Graaf, G; Engelen, J J M; Gijsbers, A C J; Hochstenbach, R; Hoffer, M J V; Kooper, A J A; Sikkema-Raddatz, B; Srebniak, M I; van der Kevie-Kersemaekers, A M F; van Zutven, L J C M; Voorhoeve, E

2017-05-01

In Western countries, increasing maternal age has led to more pregnancies with a child with Down syndrome (DS). However, prenatal screening programs, diagnostic testing and termination of pregnancy influence the actual DS live birth (LB) prevalence as well. The aim of this study is to examine these factors in the Netherlands for the period 1991-2015. In our study, we establish a baseline for DS LB prevalence before non-invasive prenatal testing will be made available to all pregnant women in the Netherlands in 2017. Full nationwide data from the Dutch cytogenetic laboratories were used to evaluate the actual DS LB prevalence. In addition, nonselective DS prevalence, which is the DS LB prevalence that would be expected in absence of termination of pregnancies, was estimated on the basis of maternal age distribution in the general population. Because of an increase in maternal age, nonselective DS prevalence increased from around 15.6 [95% confidence interval (CI) 13.9-17.4] per 10 000 LBs in 1991 (311 children in total) to around 22.6 (95% CI 20.3-24.9) per 10 000 in 2015 (385), the increase levelling off in recent years. Actual LB prevalence rose from around 11.6 (95% CI 10.9-12.2) per 10 000 in 1991 (230 children) to an estimated peak of 15.9 (95% CI 15.6-16.2) per 10 000 in 2002 (322), gradually decreasing since to 11.1 (95% CI 10.8-11.5) per 10 000 in 2015 (190). Reduction of DS LBs resulting from elective terminations had been fairly constant between 1995 and 2002 at around 28% and rose afterwards from 35% in 2003 to around 50% in 2015. In spite of expansion of antenatal screening in the Netherlands in the 1990s and early 2000s, actual DS LB prevalence increased during this period. However, after 2002, this trend reversed, probably because of informing all pregnant women about prenatal testing since 2004 and the implementation of a national screening program in 2007. © 2017 MENCAP and International Association of the Scientific Study of Intellectual and

[Overweight and obesity prevalence estimates in a population from Zaragoza by using different growth references].

PubMed

Lasarte-Velillas, J J; Hernández-Aguilar, M T; Martínez-Boyero, T; Soria-Cabeza, G; Soria-Ruiz, D; Bastarós-García, J C; Gil-Hernández, I; Pastor-Arilla, C; Lasarte-Sanz, I

2015-03-01

To investigate the prevalence of overweight and obesity among our pediatric population and observe whether the use of different growth references for classification produce significant differences. A total of 35824 boys and girls aged between 2 and 14 years were included. Body mass index (BMI) was used to calculate the prevalence of overweight-obesity by age and sex. Prevalence was obtained by using a set of national references (Hernández's standards) and the references of World Health Organization (WHO standards). Prevalences were compared for each age and sex subset, as well as with the percentage of patients who had an overweight-obesity diagnosis in the clinical record. The overall prevalence of overweight-obesity among children aged 2 to 14 years was 17.0% (95% CI; 16.1%-18.0%) according to the Hernández standards vs 30.8% (95% CI; 29.9%-31.7%) according to WHO standards (10.1% vs 12.2% obese, and 6.9% vs 18.6% overweight). It was significantly higher in boys, by both standards, due to the higher prevalence of obesity. By using the Hernández standards the prevalence was significantly lower than by using WHO standards for all ages and for both sexes. A low percentage of patients were found to have an obesity-overweight diagnosis in the clinical record (from 3% to 22% at the ages of 2 and 14 years, respectively). The prevalence of overweight-obesity in our population is high, especially among boys. Using Hernández standards leads to an under-estimation of the problem, especially because it detects less overweight patients, thus we recommend using the WHO standards in our daily practice. The low number of overweight-obesity diagnoses in the clinical records might reflect that there is little awareness of the problem by the professionals. Copyright © 2013 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

The prevalence of affective disorder and in particular of a rapid cycling of bipolar disorder in patients with abnormal thyroid function tests.

PubMed

Oomen, H A; Schipperijn, A J; Drexhage, H A

1996-08-01

Cognitive and affective functioning is sensitive to changes in thyroid hormones. We have sought to determine: (1) the prevalence of thyroid function abnormalities in a psychiatric population on admission (as compared to the prevalence in a normal population), and (2) whether such thyroid function abnormalities are associated with the occurrence or development of cognitive and affective disorders. Serum was collected 2-3 weeks after hospitalization in 3 major clinics from 3756 psychiatric patients in 1987-1990, stored, and assayed in 1993 for the presence of antibodies against the TSH-receptor and thyroperoxidase (TPO-Ab) and for TSH levels. The psychiatric cohort was matched with a control population of healthy individuals living in the same area (n = 1877). The prevalence study was followed by a case-control study involving patients from one clinic that had routinely assigned a DSM-IIIR classification to its patients. Cases were those admissions with thyroid abnormalities and three subgroups of cases were randomly formed demonstrating either TSH less than 0.4 mU/l (n = 44) or over 4.0 mU/l (n = 44), or TPO-Ab positivity (n = 50). Cases were compared to random controls from the same psychiatric population, viz patients without thyroid abnormalities (n = 83). Comparison was with respect to their psychiatric follow-up diagnosis (the investigator was blinded to the thyroid test results). Prevalence study. The percentage of patients positive for TSH-receptor-Ab was 0.26 (9/3504), for TPO-Ab was 10.0 (331/3316) and outside the TSH range of 0.4-4.0 mU/l was 10.0 ((332/3316): 5.9% (198/3316) > 4.0 mU/l and 4.1% (134/3316) < 0.4 mU/l). Abnormal total thyroxine levels were found in only 9.8% of subjects with abnormal TSH, indicating the predominantly subclinical character of the thyroid alteration. In comparison, the healthy area controls over 55 years of age showed the same prevalence of positive TPO-antibodies and TSH under 0.4 mU/l, but a higher prevalence of TSH over 4

Prevalence of Prenatal Alcohol Exposure in the State of Texas as Assessed by Phosphatidylethanol in Newborn Dried Blood Spot Specimens.

PubMed

Bakhireva, Ludmila N; Sharkis, Janet; Shrestha, Shikhar; Miranda-Sohrabji, Tristan J; Williams, Sonnie; Miranda, Rajesh C

2017-05-01

While 2 to 5% of school-aged children in the United States are estimated to be affected by fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASD), the prevalence of prenatal alcohol exposure (PAE) might be substantially underreported. Our objective was to systematically estimate the prevalence of PAE in Texas by measuring a direct ethanol metabolite, phosphatidylethanol (PEth), in 1,000 infant residual dried blood spots (irDBSs) in the Texas Newborn Screening Repository. All public health regions (PHRs) were represented proportional to their 2014 birth rate (~0.25% of total births). A cross-sectional study design (unit of observation: individual irDBS cards/infants) with additional ecologic subanalysis (unit of observation: aggregate measures for each Texas PHR) was utilized. The study used PEth-irDBS to estimate the prevalence of PAE within 1 month before delivery for the state of Texas and each Texas PHR. The ecologic subanalysis compared different geographical regions' aggregate prevalence of PAE with (i) retail liquor licenses, (ii) median household income by PHR, and (iii) prevalence of birth outcomes commonly associated with FASD. The sample included an equal number of males and females; 47.8% non-Hispanic White, 40.8% Hispanic, 6.6% African American, and 4.8% Asian infants. In the entire sample, 8.4% of irDBSs were positive for PEth (>20 ng/ml) indicative of PAE within approximately 1 month before delivery. Large regional differences were observed with mostly urban, high median-income regions demonstrating the highest prevalence. Results of this first systematic statewide PAE prevalence study demonstrate that PAE might be more prevalent than previously thought. Active case ascertainment efforts for FASD coupled with systematic objective assessment of PAE should expand to the national level to better estimate public health needs required to provide adequate services for children affected by PAE. Copyright © 2017 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Estimation of the prevalence of adverse drug reactions from social media.

PubMed

Nguyen, Thin; Larsen, Mark E; O'Dea, Bridianne; Phung, Dinh; Venkatesh, Svetha; Christensen, Helen

2017-06-01

This work aims to estimate the degree of adverse drug reactions (ADR) for psychiatric medications from social media, including Twitter, Reddit, and LiveJournal. Advances in lightning-fast cluster computing was employed to process large scale data, consisting of 6.4 terabytes of data containing 3.8 billion records from all the media. Rates of ADR were quantified using the SIDER database of drugs and side-effects, and an estimated ADR rate was based on the prevalence of discussion in the social media corpora. Agreement between these measures for a sample of ten popular psychiatric drugs was evaluated using the Pearson correlation coefficient, r, with values between 0.08 and 0.50. Word2vec, a novel neural learning framework, was utilized to improve the coverage of variants of ADR terms in the unstructured text by identifying syntactically or semantically similar terms. Improved correlation coefficients, between 0.29 and 0.59, demonstrates the capability of advanced techniques in machine learning to aid in the discovery of meaningful patterns from medical data, and social media data, at scale. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The global prevalence of common mental disorders: a systematic review and meta-analysis 1980–2013

PubMed Central

Steel, Zachary; Marnane, Claire; Iranpour, Changiz; Chey, Tien; Jackson, John W; Patel, Vikram; Silove, Derrick

2014-01-01

estimates. Conclusions: Despite a substantial degree of inter-survey heterogeneity in the meta-analysis, the findings confirm that common mental disorders are highly prevalent globally, affecting people across all regions of the world. This research provides an important resource for modelling population needs based on global regional estimates of mental disorder. The reasons for regional variation in mental disorder require further investigation. PMID:24648481

Estimating prevalence trends in adult gonorrhoea and syphilis in low- and middle-income countries with the Spectrum-STI model: results for Zimbabwe and Morocco from 1995 to 2016.

PubMed

Korenromp, Eline L; Mahiané, Guy; Rowley, Jane; Nagelkerke, Nico; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Ndowa, Francis; El-Kettani, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Mayaud, Philippe; Chico, R Matthew; Pretorius, Carel; Hecht, Kendall; Wi, Teodora

2017-12-01

To develop a tool for estimating national trends in adult prevalence of sexually transmitted infections by low- and middle-income countries, using standardised, routinely collected programme indicator data. The Spectrum-STI model fits time trends in the prevalence of active syphilis through logistic regression on prevalence data from antenatal clinic-based surveys, routine antenatal screening and general population surveys where available, weighting data by their national coverage and representativeness. Gonorrhoea prevalence was fitted as a moving average on population surveys (from the country, neighbouring countries and historic regional estimates), with trends informed additionally by urethral discharge case reports, where these were considered to have reasonably stable completeness. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, high-risk populations not sampled, urban/rural and male/female prevalence ratios, using WHO's assumptions from latest global and regional-level estimations. Uncertainty intervals were obtained by bootstrap resampling. Estimated syphilis prevalence (in men and women) declined from 1.9% (95% CI 1.1% to 3.4%) in 2000 to 1.5% (1.3% to 1.8%) in 2016 in Zimbabwe, and from 1.5% (0.76% to 1.9%) to 0.55% (0.30% to 0.93%) in Morocco. At these time points, gonorrhoea estimates for women aged 15-49 years were 2.5% (95% CI 1.1% to 4.6%) and 3.8% (1.8% to 6.7%) in Zimbabwe; and 0.6% (0.3% to 1.1%) and 0.36% (0.1% to 1.0%) in Morocco, with male gonorrhoea prevalences 14% lower than female prevalence. This epidemiological framework facilitates data review, validation and strategic analysis, prioritisation of data collection needs and surveillance strengthening by national experts. We estimated ongoing syphilis declines in both Zimbabwe and Morocco. For gonorrhoea, time trends were less certain, lacking recent population-based surveys. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted

Trends in the Prevalence of Reduced GFR in the United States: A Comparison of Creatinine- and Cystatin C-Based Estimates

PubMed Central

Grams, Morgan E.; Juraschek, Stephen P.; Selvin, Elizabeth; Foster, Meredith C.; Inker, Lesley A.; Eckfeldt, John H.; Levey, Andrew S.; Coresh, Josef

2013-01-01

Background The US prevalence of reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) based on serum creatinine increased over the decade ending in 2002. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) cystatin C measurements were recently calibrated to the international standard, allowing for an independent test of the trend in prevalence of reduced eGFR using cystatin C. Study Design Cross-sectional surveys performed during two periods. Setting & Participants Nationally representative subsamples of adult participants from NHANES III (1988–1994) and the NHANES 1999–2002 surveys. Predictor Survey period. Outcomes Prevalence of reduced GFR, defined as eGFR<60ml/min/1.73m2 based on serum creatinine, cystatin C, or both (eGFRcr, eGFRcys, eGFRcr-cys), using estimating equations developed by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKDEPI). Measurements Serum cystatin C, measured from stored samples in 2006, calibrated to the international standard in 2012. Results Between 1988–1994 and 1999–2002, the prevalence of reduced eGFRcr, eGFRcys and eGFRcr-cys increased from 4.7% (95% CI, 4.1%–5.3%) to 6.5% (95% CI, 5.9%–7.1%; p<0.001), from 5.5% (95% CI, 4.6%–6.5%) to 8.7% (95% CI, 7.5%–10.0%; p<0.001), and from 4.4% (95% CI, 3.7%–5.2%) to 7.1% (95% CI, 6.2%–8.0%; p<0.001), respectively. The higher prevalence of reduced GFR in the later period was observed in all subgroups of age, race, sex, and GFR categories. After adjusting for changes in the US population by age, sex, race, diabetes, hypertension, and body mass index, the prevalence ratio of reduced GFR in the later versus earlier survey was 1.24 (95% CI, 1.09–1.45), 1.34 (95% CI, 1.15–1.67), and 1.33 (95% CI, 1.17–1.65) using eGFRcr, eGFRcys, and eGFRcr-cys, respectively. Limitations Likely under-ascertainment of persons with GFR<15 ml/min/1.73m2; GFR was estimated and not measured; comparability of laboratory assays based on a calibration subsample. Conclusions The

Prevalence of Transgender Depends on the “Case” Definition: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Collin, Lindsay; Reisner, Sari L.; Tangpricha, Vin; Goodman, Michael

2016-01-01

Background We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate how various definitions of “transgender” may affect prevalence estimates. Methods PubMed, Embase, and Medline were searched to identify studies reporting prevalence estimates of transgender in a population. All studies were grouped based on the case definition applied to the numerator. Summary estimates were derived using a random-effects model for total prevalence of transgender and for male-to-female (MTF) and female-to-male (FTM) subgroups. Overall and stratum-specific meta-prevalence estimates (mPs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were accompanied by tests for heterogeneity, and meta-regressions to assess sources of heterogeneity. Results A total of 32 studies met the inclusion criteria for the systematic review. Of those, 27 studies provided necessary data for a meta-analysis. Overall mP (95% CI) per 100,000 population was 9.2 (4.9, 13.6) for surgical or hormonal gender affirmation therapy and 6.8 (4.6–9.1) for transgender-related diagnoses. Among studies assessing self-reported transgender identity, the mP was 871 (95% 519, 1224); however this result was influenced by a single outlier study. After removal of that study, the mP changed to 355 (95% CI 144, 566). Significant heterogeneity was observed in most analyses. Conclusions The empirical literature on the prevalence of transgender highlights the importance of adhering to specific case definitions because the results may range by orders of magnitude. Standardized and routine collection of transgender data is recommended. PMID:27045261

Physical and Sexual Violence Affecting Female Sex Workers in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire: Prevalence, and the Relationship with the Work Environment, HIV, and Access to Health Services.

PubMed

Lyons, Carrie E; Grosso, Ashley; Drame, Fatou M; Ketende, Sosthenes; Diouf, Daouda; Ba, Ibrahima; Shannon, Kate; Ezouatchi, Rebecca; Bamba, Amara; Kouame, Abo; Baral, Stefan

2017-05-01

Violence is a human rights violation, and an important measure in understanding HIV among female sex workers (FSW). However, limited data exist regarding correlates of violence among FSW in Côte d'Ivoire. Characterizing prevalence and determinants of violence and the relationship with structural risks for HIV can inform development and implementation of comprehensive HIV prevention and treatment programs. FSW > 18 years were recruited through respondent driven sampling (RDS) in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire. In total, 466 participants completed a socio-behavioral questionnaire and HIV testing. Prevalence estimates of violence were calculated using crude and RDS-adjusted estimates. Relationships between structural risk factors and violence were analyzed using χ tests and multivariable logistic regression. The prevalence of physical violence was 53.6% (250/466), and sexual violence was 43.2% (201/465) among FSW in this study. Police refusal of protection was associated with physical (adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR]: 2.8; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.7 to 4.4) and sexual violence (aOR: 3.0; 95% CI: 1.9 to 4.8). Blackmail was associated with physical (aOR: 2.5; 95% CI: 1.5 to 4.2) and sexual violence (aOR: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.5 to 4.0). Physical violence was associated with fear (aOR: 2.2; 95% CI: 1.3 to 3.1) and avoidance of seeking health services (aOR: 2.3; 95% CI: 1.5 to 3.8). Violence is prevalent among FSW in Abidjan and associated with features of the work environment and access to care. These relationships highlight layers of rights violations affecting FSW, underscoring the need for structural interventions and policy reforms to improve work environments, and to address police harassment, stigma, and rights violations to reduce violence and improve access to HIV interventions.

Problematic video game use: estimated prevalence and associations with mental and physical health.

PubMed

Mentzoni, Rune Aune; Brunborg, Geir Scott; Molde, Helge; Myrseth, Helga; Skouverøe, Knut Joachim Mår; Hetland, Jørn; Pallesen, Ståle

2011-10-01

A nationwide survey was conducted to investigate the prevalence of video game addiction and problematic video game use and their association with physical and mental health. An initial sample comprising 2,500 individuals was randomly selected from the Norwegian National Registry. A total of 816 (34.0 percent) individuals completed and returned the questionnaire. The majority (56.3 percent) of respondents used video games on a regular basis. The prevalence of video game addiction was estimated to be 0.6 percent, with problematic use of video games reported by 4.1 percent of the sample. Gender (male) and age group (young) were strong predictors for problematic use of video games. A higher proportion of high frequency compared with low frequency players preferred massively multiplayer online role-playing games, although the majority of high frequency players preferred other game types. Problematic use of video games was associated with lower scores on life satisfaction and with elevated levels of anxiety and depression. Video game use was not associated with reported amount of physical exercise.

Taenia solium porcine cysticercosis in Madagascar: Comparison of immuno-diagnostic techniques and estimation of the prevalence in pork carcasses traded in Antananarivo city.

PubMed

Porphyre, V; Betson, M; Rabezanahary, H; Mboussou, Y; Zafindraibe, N J; Rasamoelina-Andriamanivo, H; Costard, S; Pfeiffer, D U; Michault, A

2016-03-30

Taenia solium cysticercosis was reported in official veterinary and medical statistics to be highly prevalent in pigs and humans in Madagascar, but few estimates are available for pigs. This study aimed to estimate the seroprevalence of porcine cysticercosis among pigs slaughtered in Antananarivo abattoirs. Firstly, the diagnostic performance of two antigen-ELISA techniques (B158B60 Ag-ELISA and HP10 Ag-ELISA) and an immunoblotting method were compared with meat inspection procedures on a sample of pigs suspected to be infected with (group 1; n=250) or free of (group 2; n=250) T. solium based on direct veterinary inspection in Madagascar. Sensitivity and specificity of the antigen ELISAs were then estimated using a Bayesian approach for detection of porcine cysticercosis in the absence of a gold standard. Then, a third set of pig sera (group 3, n=250) was randomly collected in Antananarivo slaughterhouses and tested to estimate the overall prevalence of T. solium contamination in pork meat traded in Antananarivo. The antigen ELISAs showed a high sensitivity (>84%), but the B158B60 Ag-ELISA appeared to be more specific than the HP10 Ag-ELISA (model 1: 95% vs 74%; model 2: 87% vs 71%). The overall prevalence of porcine cysticercosis in Antananarivo slaughterhouses was estimated at 2.3% (95% credibility interval [95%CrI]: 0.09-9.1%) to 2.6% (95%CrI: 0.1-10.3%) depending on the model and priors used. Since the sample used in this study is not representative of the national pig population, village-based surveys and longitudinal monitoring at slaughter are needed to better estimate the overall prevalence, geographical patterns and main risk factors for T. solium contamination, in order to improve control policies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders in nursing professionals].

PubMed

Ribeiro, Natália Fonseca; Fernandes, Rita de Cássia Pereira; Solla, Davi Jorge Fontoura; Santos Junior, Anivaldo Costa; de Sena Junior, Antonio Santos

2012-06-01

A cross-sectional study estimated the prevalence of work-related musculoskeletal disorders among nursing assistants in Salvador, Bahia. Three hundred and eight workers, randomly selected, answered a questionnaire applied by trained interviewers during working hours. The majority of respondents worked the day shift and did not usually work overtime. About 34% reported having another regular job. Average time in the formal or informal labor market was 19 years. There was high occupational exposure to repetitive hand movements, standing posture, walking, inadequate postures of the trunk and manual handling of loads. The prevalence of work-related musculoskeletal disorders in at least one body segment was 83.4%.The most affected body segments were: low back (53.9%), legs (51.9%), neck (36.4%), upper back (35.7%) and shoulders (33.8%). There was high prevalence of work-related musculoskeletal disorders in the studied population, which points out to the need for improvements in the working conditions of those professionals.

EEG-based workload estimation across affective contexts

PubMed Central

Mühl, Christian; Jeunet, Camille; Lotte, Fabien

2014-01-01

Workload estimation from electroencephalographic signals (EEG) offers a highly sensitive tool to adapt the human–computer interaction to the user state. To create systems that reliably work in the complexity of the real world, a robustness against contextual changes (e.g., mood), has to be achieved. To study the resilience of state-of-the-art EEG-based workload classification against stress we devise a novel experimental protocol, in which we manipulated the affective context (stressful/non-stressful) while the participant solved a task with two workload levels. We recorded self-ratings, behavior, and physiology from 24 participants to validate the protocol. We test the capability of different, subject-specific workload classifiers using either frequency-domain, time-domain, or both feature varieties to generalize across contexts. We show that the classifiers are able to transfer between affective contexts, though performance suffers independent of the used feature domain. However, cross-context training is a simple and powerful remedy allowing the extraction of features in all studied feature varieties that are more resilient to task-unrelated variations in signal characteristics. Especially for frequency-domain features, across-context training is leading to a performance comparable to within-context training and testing. We discuss the significance of the result for neurophysiology-based workload detection in particular and for the construction of reliable passive brain–computer interfaces in general. PMID:24971046

Elite athletes' estimates of the prevalence of illicit drug use: evidence for the false consensus effect.

PubMed

Dunn, Matthew; Thomas, Johanna O; Swift, Wendy; Burns, Lucinda

2012-01-01

The false consensus effect (FCE) is the tendency for people to assume that others share their attitudes and behaviours to a greater extent than they actually do. The FCE has been demonstrated for a range of health behaviours, including substance use. The study aimed to explore the relationship between elite athlete's engagement in recreational drug use and their consensus estimates (the FCE) and to determine whether those who engage in the behaviour overestimate the use of others around them. The FCE was investigated among 974 elite Australian athletes who were classified according to their drug use history. Participants tended to report that there was a higher prevalence of drug use among athletes in general compared with athletes in their sport, and these estimates appeared to be influenced by participants' drug use history. While overestimation of drug use by participants was not common, this overestimation also appeared to be influenced by athletes' drug use history. The results suggest that athletes who have a history of illicit drug use overestimate the prevalence of drug use among athletes. These findings may be helpful in the formulation of normative education initiatives. © 2011 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Methodological factors affecting joint moments estimation in clinical gait analysis: a systematic review.

PubMed

Camomilla, Valentina; Cereatti, Andrea; Cutti, Andrea Giovanni; Fantozzi, Silvia; Stagni, Rita; Vannozzi, Giuseppe

2017-08-18

Quantitative gait analysis can provide a description of joint kinematics and dynamics, and it is recognized as a clinically useful tool for functional assessment, diagnosis and intervention planning. Clinically interpretable parameters are estimated from quantitative measures (i.e. ground reaction forces, skin marker trajectories, etc.) through biomechanical modelling. In particular, the estimation of joint moments during motion is grounded on several modelling assumptions: (1) body segmental and joint kinematics is derived from the trajectories of markers and by modelling the human body as a kinematic chain; (2) joint resultant (net) loads are, usually, derived from force plate measurements through a model of segmental dynamics. Therefore, both measurement errors and modelling assumptions can affect the results, to an extent that also depends on the characteristics of the motor task analysed (i.e. gait speed). Errors affecting the trajectories of joint centres, the orientation of joint functional axes, the joint angular velocities, the accuracy of inertial parameters and force measurements (concurring to the definition of the dynamic model), can weigh differently in the estimation of clinically interpretable joint moments. Numerous studies addressed all these methodological aspects separately, but a critical analysis of how these aspects may affect the clinical interpretation of joint dynamics is still missing. This article aims at filling this gap through a systematic review of the literature, conducted on Web of Science, Scopus and PubMed. The final objective is hence to provide clear take-home messages to guide laboratories in the estimation of joint moments for the clinical practice.

Prevalence of Chronic Hypoparathyroidism in a Mediterranean Region as Estimated by the Analysis of Anonymous Healthcare Database.

PubMed

Cianferotti, Luisella; Parri, Simone; Gronchi, Giorgio; Marcucci, Gemma; Cipriani, Cristiana; Pepe, Jessica; Raglianti, Marco; Minisola, Salvatore; Brandi, Maria Luisa

2018-03-08

Epidemiological data on prevalence and incidence of chronic hypoparathyroidism are still scarce. This study aimed to establish prevalence of chronic hypoparathyroidism and incidence of surgical hypoparathyroidism using the analysis of electronic anonymous public health care database. Data referred to a 5-year period (2009-2013, Region of Tuscany, Italy, as a sample representative of the whole Mediterranean/European population, estimated mean population: 3,750,000 inhabitants) were retrieved by the analysis of pharmaceutical distribution dataset, containing data related to drugs reimbursed by public health system, hospital discharge and procedures codes, and ICD9 exemption codes for chronic diseases. The application of a specific algorithm was applied to indirectly identify people with chronic hypoparathyroidism as assuming chronic therapy with active vitamin D metabolites (AVDM). The number of people taking AVDM for a period equal to or longer than 6 months till the end of the study period, with ICD9 exemption code for hypoparathyroidism, and with a disease-related discharge code were identified. Within this restricted group, patients with chronic kidney disease and osteoporosis were excluded. The indirect estimate of chronic hypoparathyroidism in a European Mediterranean subpopulation by means of the analysis of chronic therapy with AVDM was 27/100,000 inhabitants (female:male ratio = 2.2:1), with a mean age of 63.5 ± 16.7 years. The risk of developing hypoparathyroidism after neck surgery was 1.5%. While the epidemiological approaches based on disease code and hospital discharge code greatly underestimates the prevalence of hypoparathyroidism, the indirect estimate of this disease through the analysis of prescriptions of AVDM in a European region is in line with the results of studies performed in other regions of the world.

Estimated prevalence and incidence of diagnosed ADHD and health care utilization in adults in Sweden - a longitudinal population-based register study.

PubMed

Polyzoi, Maria; Ahnemark, Ewa; Medin, Emma; Ginsberg, Ylva

2018-01-01

Although the worldwide prevalence of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in adults is estimated to be between 2% and 5%, it is considered to be underdiagnosed. This register study explored the prevalence of diagnosed ADHD and incidence of newly diagnosed ADHD in Swedish adults over time, and assessed comorbidities and pharmacologic treatment. National Patient Register data were used to estimate the overall prevalence of adults (≥18 years) with a registered ADHD diagnosis from 2006 to 2011, and the incidence of newly registered diagnoses from 2007 to 2011. Data from the Prescribed Drug Register were used to estimate the mean dose of the most frequently prescribed ADHD medication. The estimated annual prevalence (N=44,364) of diagnosed ADHD increased from 0.58 per 1,000 persons in 2006 to 3.54 per 1,000 persons in 2011. The estimated annual incidence of newly diagnosed ADHD (N=24,921) increased from 0.39 per 1,000 persons to 0.90 per 1,000 persons between 2007 and 2011. At least one comorbidity was diagnosed in 52.6% of adults with ADHD (54.0% of newly diagnosed adults), with anxiety, substance use disorders, and depression being the most common. Among all adults with ADHD, 78.9% (65.7% of newly diagnosed adults) were prescribed ADHD medication and one-third were prescribed more than one add-on medication. Osmotic release oral system methylphenidate was the most commonly used medication. The mean daily dose was 51.5 mg, and was significantly higher in males, patients with substance use disorders, patients with drug holidays, and patients with at least one add-on medication. The most frequent concomitant medications were anxiolytics and hypnotics. In Sweden, the number of adults diagnosed with ADHD increased between 2006 and 2011, and the majority of patients were prescribed ADHD-specific medication. Over one-half of patients had psychiatric comorbidities; one-third were prescribed more than one add-on medication. Consumption of pharmacologic ADHD

Prevalence of refractive error in Europe: the European Eye Epidemiology (E(3)) Consortium.

PubMed

Williams, Katie M; Verhoeven, Virginie J M; Cumberland, Phillippa; Bertelsen, Geir; Wolfram, Christian; Buitendijk, Gabriëlle H S; Hofman, Albert; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Vingerling, Johannes R; Kuijpers, Robert W A M; Höhn, René; Mirshahi, Alireza; Khawaja, Anthony P; Luben, Robert N; Erke, Maja Gran; von Hanno, Therese; Mahroo, Omar; Hogg, Ruth; Gieger, Christian; Cougnard-Grégoire, Audrey; Anastasopoulos, Eleftherios; Bron, Alain; Dartigues, Jean-François; Korobelnik, Jean-François; Creuzot-Garcher, Catherine; Topouzis, Fotis; Delcourt, Cécile; Rahi, Jugnoo; Meitinger, Thomas; Fletcher, Astrid; Foster, Paul J; Pfeiffer, Norbert; Klaver, Caroline C W; Hammond, Christopher J

2015-04-01

To estimate the prevalence of refractive error in adults across Europe. Refractive data (mean spherical equivalent) collected between 1990 and 2013 from fifteen population-based cohort and cross-sectional studies of the European Eye Epidemiology (E(3)) Consortium were combined in a random effects meta-analysis stratified by 5-year age intervals and gender. Participants were excluded if they were identified as having had cataract surgery, retinal detachment, refractive surgery or other factors that might influence refraction. Estimates of refractive error prevalence were obtained including the following classifications: myopia ≤-0.75 diopters (D), high myopia ≤-6D, hyperopia ≥1D and astigmatism ≥1D. Meta-analysis of refractive error was performed for 61,946 individuals from fifteen studies with median age ranging from 44 to 81 and minimal ethnic variation (98 % European ancestry). The age-standardised prevalences (using the 2010 European Standard Population, limited to those ≥25 and <90 years old) were: myopia 30.6 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 30.4-30.9], high myopia 2.7 % (95 % CI 2.69-2.73), hyperopia 25.2 % (95 % CI 25.0-25.4) and astigmatism 23.9 % (95 % CI 23.7-24.1). Age-specific estimates revealed a high prevalence of myopia in younger participants [47.2 % (CI 41.8-52.5) in 25-29 years-olds]. Refractive error affects just over a half of European adults. The greatest burden of refractive error is due to myopia, with high prevalence rates in young adults. Using the 2010 European population estimates, we estimate there are 227.2 million people with myopia across Europe.

Discrepancies between UN models and DHS survey estimates of maternal orphan prevalence: insights from analyses of survey data from Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

Robertson, L; Gregson, S; Madanhire, C; Walker, N; Mushati, P; Garnett, G; Nyamukapa, C

2008-01-01

Objectives: Model-based estimates of maternal (but not paternal) orphanhood are higher than those based on data from demographic and health surveys (DHS). We investigate the consistency of reporting of parental survival status in data from Manicaland, Zimbabwe. Methods: We compared estimates of paternal and maternal orphan prevalence in three rounds of a prospective household census in Manicaland (1998–2005) with estimates from DHS surveys and UNAIDS model projections. We investigated the consistency of reporting of parental survival status across the three rounds and compared estimates of adult mortality from the orphan data with direct estimates from concurrent follow-up of a general population cohort. Qualitative data were collected on possible reasons for misreporting. Results: Paternal and maternal orphan prevalence is increasing in Zimbabwe. Mothers reported as deceased in round 1 of the Manicaland survey were more likely than fathers to be reported as alive in rounds 2 or 3 (33.3% vs 13.4%). This pattern was most apparent among younger children. The qualitative findings suggest that foster parents sometimes claim adopted children as their natural children. Conclusions: These results are consistent with misreporting of foster parents as natural parents. This appears to be particularly common among foster mothers and could partly explain the discrepancy between mathematical model and DHS estimates of maternal orphanhood. PMID:18647868

Report summary Prevalence and monetary costs of dementia in Canada (2016): a report by the Alzheimer Society of Canada.

PubMed

2016-10-01

Dementia prevalence estimates vary among population-based studies, depending on the definitions of dementia, methodologies and data sources and types of costs they use. A common approach is needed to avoid confusion and increase public and stakeholder confidence in the estimates. Since 1994, five major studies have yielded widely differing estimates of dementia prevalence and monetary costs of dementia in Canada. These studies variously estimated the prevalence of dementia for the year 2011 as low as 340 170 and as high as 747 000. The main reason for this difference was that mild cognitive impairment (MCI) was not consistently included in the projections. The estimated monetary costs of dementia for the same year also varied, from $910 million to $33 billion. This discrepancy is largely due to three factors: (1) the lack of agreed-upon methods for estimating financial costs; (2) the unavailability of prevalence estimates for the various stages of dementia (mild, moderate and severe), which directly affect the amount of money spent; and (3) the absence of tools to measure direct, indirect and intangible costs more accurately. Given the increasing challenges of dementia in Canada and around the globe, reconciling these differences is critical for developing standards to generate reliable information for public consumption and to shape public policy and service development.

First HIV prevalence estimates of a representative sample of adult sub-Saharan African migrants in a European city. Results of a community-based, cross-sectional study in Antwerp, Belgium.

PubMed

Loos, Jasna; Nöstlinger, Christiana; Vuylsteke, Bea; Deblonde, Jessika; Ndungu, Morgan; Kint, Ilse; Manirankunda, Lazare; Reyniers, Thijs; Adobea, Dorothy; Laga, Marie; Colebunders, Robert

2017-01-01

While sub-Saharan African migrants are the second largest group affected by HIV in Europe, sound HIV prevalence estimates based on representative samples of these heterogeneous communities are lacking. Such data are needed to inform prevention and public health policy. This community-based, cross-sectional study combined oral fluid HIV testing with an electronic behavioral survey. Adopting a two-stage time location sampling HIV prevalence estimates for a representative sample of adult sub-Saharan African migrants in Antwerp, Belgium were obtained. Sample proportions and estimated adjusted population proportions were calculated for all variables. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis explored factors independently associated with HIV infection. Between December 2013 and October 2014, 744 sub-Saharan African migrants were included (37% women). A substantial proportion was socially, legally and economically vulnerable: 21% were probably of undocumented status, 63% had financial problems in the last year and 9% lacked stable housing. Sexual networks were mostly African and crossed national borders, i.e. sexual encounters during travels within Europa and Africa. Concurrency is common, 34% of those in a stable relationship had a partner on the side in the last year. HIV prevalence was 5.9%(95%CI:3.4%-10.1%) among women and 4.2% (95%CI:1.6%-10.6%) among men. Although high lifetime HIV testing was reported at community level (73%), 65.2% (CI95%:32.4%-88.0%) of sub-Saharan African migrants were possibly undiagnosed. Being 45 years or older, unprotected sex when travelling within Europe in the last year, high intentions to use condoms, being unaware of their last sexual partners' HIV status, recent HIV testing and not having encountered partner violence in the last year were independently associated with HIV infection in multivariable logical regression. In univariable analysis, HIV infection was additionally associated to unemployment. This is the first

Estimating the prevalence and intensity of Schistosoma mansoni infection among rural communities in Western Tanzania: The influence of sampling strategy and statistical approach

PubMed Central

Bakuza, Jared S.; Denwood, Matthew J.; Nkwengulila, Gamba

2017-01-01

Background Schistosoma mansoni is a parasite of major public health importance in developing countries, where it causes a neglected tropical disease known as intestinal schistosomiasis. However, the distribution of the parasite within many endemic regions is currently unknown, which hinders effective control. The purpose of this study was to characterize the prevalence and intensity of infection of S. mansoni in a remote area of western Tanzania. Methodology/Principal findings Stool samples were collected from 192 children and 147 adults residing in Gombe National Park and four nearby villages. Children were actively sampled in local schools, and adults were sampled passively by voluntary presentation at the local health clinics. The two datasets were therefore analysed separately. Faecal worm egg count (FWEC) data were analysed using negative binomial and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models with explanatory variables of site, sex, and age. The ZINB models indicated that a substantial proportion of the observed zero FWEC reflected a failure to detect eggs in truly infected individuals, meaning that the estimated true prevalence was much higher than the apparent prevalence as calculated based on the simple proportion of non-zero FWEC. For the passively sampled data from adults, the data were consistent with close to 100% true prevalence of infection. Both the prevalence and intensity of infection differed significantly between sites, but there were no significant associations with sex or age. Conclusions/Significance Overall, our data suggest a more widespread distribution of S. mansoni in this part of Tanzania than was previously thought. The apparent prevalence estimates substantially under-estimated the true prevalence as determined by the ZINB models, and the two types of sampling strategies also resulted in differing conclusions regarding prevalence of infection. We therefore recommend that future surveillance programmes designed to assess risk

Prevalence of Gestational Diabetes and Risk of Progression to Type 2 Diabetes: a Global Perspective.

PubMed

Zhu, Yeyi; Zhang, Cuilin

2016-01-01

Despite the increasing epidemic of diabetes mellitus affecting populations at different life stages, the global burden of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is not well assessed. Systematically synthesized data on global prevalence estimates of GDM are lacking, particularly among developing countries. The hyperglycemic intrauterine environment as exemplified in pregnancies complicated by GDM might not only reflect but also fuel the epidemic of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We comprehensively reviewed available data in the past decade in an attempt to estimate the contemporary global prevalence of GDM by country and region. We reviewed the risk of progression from GDM to T2DM as well. Synthesized data demonstrate wide variations in both prevalence estimates of GDM and the risk of progression from GDM to T2DM. Direct comparisons of GDM burden across countries or regions are challenging given the great heterogeneity in screening approaches, diagnostic criteria, and underlying population characteristics. In this regard, collaborative efforts to estimate global GDM prevalence would be a large but important leap forward. Such efforts may have substantial public health implications in terms of informing health policy makers and healthcare providers for disease burden and for developing more targeted and effective diabetes prevention and management strategies globally.

Statistical models for incorporating data from routine HIV testing of pregnant women at antenatal clinics into HIV/AIDS epidemic estimates.

PubMed

Sheng, Ben; Marsh, Kimberly; Slavkovic, Aleksandra B; Gregson, Simon; Eaton, Jeffrey W; Bao, Le

2017-04-01

HIV prevalence data collected from routine HIV testing of pregnant women at antenatal clinics (ANC-RT) are potentially available from all facilities that offer testing services to pregnant women and can be used to improve estimates of national and subnational HIV prevalence trends. We develop methods to incorporate these new data source into the Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS Estimation and Projection Package in Spectrum 2017. We develop a new statistical model for incorporating ANC-RT HIV prevalence data, aggregated either to the health facility level (site-level) or regionally (census-level), to estimate HIV prevalence alongside existing sources of HIV prevalence data from ANC unlinked anonymous testing (ANC-UAT) and household-based national population surveys. Synthetic data are generated to understand how the availability of ANC-RT data affects the accuracy of various parameter estimates. We estimate HIV prevalence and additional parameters using both ANC-RT and other existing data. Fitting HIV prevalence using synthetic data generally gives precise estimates of the underlying trend and other parameters. More years of ANC-RT data should improve prevalence estimates. More ANC-RT sites and continuation with existing ANC-UAT sites may improve the estimate of calibration between ANC-UAT and ANC-RT sites. We have proposed methods to incorporate ANC-RT data into Spectrum to obtain more precise estimates of prevalence and other measures of the epidemic. Many assumptions about the accuracy, consistency, and representativeness of ANC-RT prevalence underlie the use of these data for monitoring HIV epidemic trends and should be tested as more data become available from national ANC-RT programs.

Statistical Models for Incorporating Data from Routine HIV Testing of Pregnant Women at Antenatal Clinics into HIV/AIDS Epidemic Estimates

PubMed Central

Sheng, Ben; Marsh, Kimberly; Slavkovic, Aleksandra B.; Gregson, Simon; Eaton, Jeffrey W.; Bao, Le

2017-01-01

Objective HIV prevalence data collected from routine HIV testing of pregnant women at antenatal clinics (ANC-RT) are potentially available from all facilities that offer testing services to pregnant women, and can be used to improve estimates of national and sub-national HIV prevalence trends. We develop methods to incorporate this new data source into the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) in Spectrum 2017. Methods We develop a new statistical model for incorporating ANC-RT HIV prevalence data, aggregated either to the health facility level (‘site-level’) or regionally (‘census-level’), to estimate HIV prevalence alongside existing sources of HIV prevalence data from ANC unlinked anonymous testing (ANC-UAT) and household-based national population surveys. Synthetic data are generated to understand how the availability of ANC-RT data affects the accuracy of various parameter estimates. Results We estimate HIV prevalence and additional parameters using both ANC-RT and other existing data. Fitting HIV prevalence using synthetic data generally gives precise estimates of the underlying trend and other parameters. More years of ANC-RT data should improve prevalence estimates. More ANC-RT sites and continuation with existing ANC-UAT sites may improve the estimate of calibration between ANC-UAT and ANC-RT sites. Conclusion We have proposed methods to incorporate ANC-RT data into Spectrum to obtain more precise estimates of prevalence and other measures of the epidemic. Many assumptions about the accuracy, consistency, and representativeness of ANC-RT prevalence underlie the use of these data for monitoring HIV epidemic trends, and should be tested as more data become available from national ANC-RT programs. PMID:28296804

Family History of Sudden Cardiac Death of the Young: Prevalence and Associated Factors

PubMed Central

White, Michelle J.; Duquette, Debra; Bach, Janice; Rafferty, Ann P.; Fussman, Chris; Sharangpani, Ruta; Russell, Mark W.

2015-01-01

Sudden cardiac death of the young (SCDY) is a devastating event for families and communities. Family history is a significant risk factor for this potentially preventable cause of death, however a complete and detailed family history is not commonly obtained during routine health maintenance visits. To estimate the proportion of adults with a family history of SCDY, the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS) Genomics Program included two questions within the 2007 Michigan Behavioral Risk Factor Survey (MiBRFS). Prevalence estimates and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. Among adults in Michigan, 6.3% reported a family history of SCDY, with a greater prevalence among blacks, those with lower household income, and those with less education. Among those reporting a family history of SCDY, 42.3% had at least one first-degree relative and 26.2% had multiple affected family members. This is the first study to demonstrate the prevalence of family history of SCDY while also highlighting key sociodemographic characteristics associated with increased prevalence. These findings should guide evidence-based interventions to reach those at greatest risk. PMID:27417815

Prevalence and Trends in Lifetime Obesity in the U.S., 1988-2014.

PubMed

Stokes, Andrew; Ni, Yu; Preston, Samuel H

2017-11-01

Estimates of obesity prevalence based on current BMI are an important but incomplete indicator of the total effects of obesity on a population. In this study, data on current BMI and maximum BMI were used to estimate prevalence and trends in lifetime obesity status, defined using the categories never (maximum BMI ≤30 kg/m 2 ), former (maximum BMI ≥30 kg/m 2 and current BMI ≤30 kg/m 2 ), and current obesity (current BMI ≥30 kg/m 2 ). Prevalence was estimated for the period 2013-2014 and trends for the period 1988-2014 using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Predictors of lifetime weight status and the association between lifetime weight categories and prevalent disease status were also investigated using multivariable regression. A total of 50.8% of American males and 51.6% of American females were ever obese in 2013-2014. The prevalence of lifetime obesity exceeded the prevalence of current obesity by amounts that were greater for males and for older persons. The gap between the two prevalence values has risen over time. By 2013-2014, a total of 22.0% of individuals who were not currently obese had formerly been obese. For each of eight diseases considered, prevalence was higher among the formerly obese than among the never obese. A larger fraction of the population is affected by obesity and its health consequences than is suggested in prior studies based on current BMI alone. Weight history should be incorporated into routine health surveillance of the obesity epidemic for a full accounting of the effects of obesity on the U.S. Copyright © 2017 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prevalence and Genetic Profile of Duchene and Becker Muscular Dystrophy in Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Ramos, Edwardo; Conde, José G; Berrios, Rafael Arias; Pardo, Sherly; Gómez, Omar; Mas Rodríguez, Manuel F

2016-05-27

Duchenne and Becker Muscular Dystrophy (DMD and BMD, respectively), are common forms of inherited muscle disease. Information regarding the epidemiology of these conditions, including genotype, is still sparse. To establish the prevalence and genetic profile of DMD and BMD in Puerto Rico. We collected data from medical records in all Muscular Dystrophy Association (MDA) clinics in Puerto Rico in order to estimate the prevalence of DMD and BMD and to describe the genotypic profile of these patients. Patients selected for data analysis matched "definite", "probable" and "possible" case definitions as established by MD STARnet. A total of 141 patients matched the inclusion criteria, with 64.5% and 35.5% being categorized into DMD and BMD, respectively. DMD and BMD prevalence in Puerto Rico was estimated at 5.18 and 2.84 per 100,000 males, respectively. Deletion was the most common form of mutation (66.7%) in the dystrophin gene, with exons in segment 45 to 47 being the most frequently affected. This is the first report of the prevalence and genetic profile characteristics of DMD and BMD in Puerto Rico. Prevalence of DMD was similar to that reported worldwide, while prevalence of BMD was higher. Genetic profile was consistent with that reported in the literature.

Questionnaire layout and wording influence prevalence and risk estimates of respiratory symptoms in a population cohort

PubMed Central

Ekerljung, Linda; Rönmark, Eva; Lötvall, Jan; Wennergren, Göran; Torén, Kjell; Lundbäck, Bo

2013-01-01

Objective Results of epidemiological studies are greatly influenced by the chosen methodology. The study aims to investigate how two frequently used questionnaires (Qs), with partly different layout, influence the prevalence of respiratory symptoms. Study Design and Setting A booklet containing two Qs, the Global Allergy and Asthma European Network Q and the Obstructive Lung Disease in Northern Sweden Q, was mailed to 30 000 subjects aged 16–75 years in West Sweden; 62% responded. Sixteen questions were included in the analysis: seven identical between the Qs, four different in set-up and five with the same layout but different wording. Comparisons were made using differences in proportions, observed agreement and Kappa statistics. Results Identical questions yielded similar prevalences with high observed agreement and kappa values. Questions with different set-up or differences in wording resulted in significantly different prevalences with lower observed agreement and kappa values. In general, the use of follow-up questions, excluding subjects answering no to the initial question, resulted in 2.9–6.7% units lower prevalence. Conclusion The question set-up has great influences on epidemiological results, and specifically questions that are set up to be excluded based on a previous no answer leads to lower prevalence compared with detached questions. Therefore, Q layout and exact wording of questions has to be carefully considered when comparing studies. Please cite this paper as: Ekerljung L, Rönmark E, Lötvall J, Wennergren G, Torén K and Lundbäck B. Questionnaire layout and wording influence prevalence and risk estimates of respiratory symptoms in a population cohort. Clin Respir J 2013; 7: 53–63. PMID:22243692

Measuring hospital-acquired pressure injuries: A surveillance programme for monitoring performance improvement and estimating annual prevalence.

PubMed

Jull, Andrew; McCall, Elaine; Chappell, Matt; Tobin, Sam

2016-06-01

To describe a surveillance approach for monitoring the effect of improvement initiatives on hospital-acquired pressure injuries and findings arising from that surveillance. Random sampling of patients on the same day of each successive month from a campus of child and adult hospitals using a standard audit tool to identify presence of hospital-acquired pressure injury. Where multiple pressure injuries were present, the most severe grade injury contributed to prevalence. Statistical process control charts were used to monitor monthly performance and Maximum Likelihood Estimation to determine timing of step change. 8274 patients were assessed over 3 years from an eligible population of 32,259 hospitalised patients. 517 patients had hospital-acquired pressure injuries giving an overall prevalence of 6.2% (95% CI 5.7-6.8%). Annual prevalence was 8.4% (95% CI 7.4-9.5%) in the first year, falling to 5.6% (95% CI 4.7-6.4%) in the second year and 4.8% (95% CI 4.0-5.6%) in the third year. A step change was signalled with mean prevalence up to July 2013 being 7.9% (95% CI 7.1-8.8%) and mean prevalence thereafter 4.8% (95% CI 4.2-5.4%). Hospital-acquired pressure injuries were found in all age ranges, but were more frequent in children up to 14 years (17.4%) and those aged 75 years or older (38.7%). Monthly random sampling of patients within clinical units can be used to monitor performance improvement. This approach represents a rational alternative to cross-sectional prevalence surveys especially if the focus is on performance improvement. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictors and Impact of Self-Reported Suboptimal Effort on Estimates of Prevalence of HIV-Associated Neurocognitive Disorders.

PubMed

Levine, Andrew J; Martin, Eileen; Sacktor, Ned; Munro, Cynthia; Becker, James

2017-06-01

Prevalence estimates of HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND) may be inflated. Estimates are determined via cohort studies in which participants may apply suboptimal effort on neurocognitive testing, thereby inflating estimates. Additionally, fluctuating HAND severity over time may be related to inconsistent effort. To address these hypotheses, we characterized effort in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. After neurocognitive testing, 935 participants (525 HIV- and 410 HIV+) completed the visual analog effort scale (VAES), rating their effort from 0% to 100%. Those with <100% then indicated the reason(s) for suboptimal effort. K-means cluster analysis established 3 groups: high (mean = 97%), moderate (79%), and low effort (51%). Rates of HAND and other characteristics were compared between the groups. Linear regression examined the predictors of VAES score. Data from 57 participants who completed the VAES at 2 visits were analyzed to characterize the longitudinal relationship between effort and HAND severity. Fifty-two percent of participants reported suboptimal effort (<100%), with no difference between serostatus groups. Common reasons included "tired" (43%) and "distracted" (36%). The lowest effort group had greater asymptomatic neurocognitive impairment and minor neurocognitive disorder diagnosis (25% and 33%) as compared with the moderate (23% and 15%) and the high (12% and 9%) effort groups. Predictors of suboptimal effort were self-reported memory impairment, African American race, and cocaine use. Change in effort between baseline and follow-up correlated with change in HAND severity. Suboptimal effort seems to inflate estimated HAND prevalence and explain fluctuation of severity over time. A simple modification of study protocols to optimize effort is indicated by the results.

Challenges associated with drunk driving measurement: combining police and self-reported data to estimate an accurate prevalence in Brazil.

PubMed

Sousa, Tanara; Lunnen, Jeffrey C; Gonçalves, Veralice; Schmitz, Aurinez; Pasa, Graciela; Bastos, Tamires; Sripad, Pooja; Chandran, Aruna; Pechansky, Flavio

2013-12-01

Drunk driving is an important risk factor for road traffic crashes, injuries and deaths. After June 2008, all drivers in Brazil were subject to a "Zero Tolerance Law" with a set breath alcohol concentration of 0.1 mg/L of air. However, a loophole in this law enabled drivers to refuse breath or blood alcohol testing as it may self-incriminate. The reported prevalence of drunk driving is therefore likely a gross underestimate in many cities. To compare the prevalence of drunk driving gathered from police reports to the prevalence gathered from self-reported questionnaires administered at police sobriety roadblocks in two Brazilian capital cities, and to estimate a more accurate prevalence of drunk driving utilizing three correction techniques based upon information from those questionnaires. In August 2011 and January-February 2012, researchers from the Centre for Drug and Alcohol Research at the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul administered a roadside interview on drunk driving practices to 805 voluntary participants in the Brazilian capital cities of Palmas and Teresina. Three techniques which include measures such as the number of persons reporting alcohol consumption in the last six hours but who had refused breath testing were used to estimate the prevalence of drunk driving. The prevalence of persons testing positive for alcohol on their breath was 8.8% and 5.0% in Palmas and Teresina respectively. Utilizing a correction technique we calculated that a more accurate prevalence in these sites may be as high as 28.2% and 28.7%. In both cities, about 60% of drivers who self-reported having drank within six hours of being stopped by the police either refused to perform breathalyser testing; fled the sobriety roadblock; or were not offered the test, compared to about 30% of drivers that said they had not been drinking. Despite the reduction of the legal limit for drunk driving stipulated by the "Zero Tolerance Law," loopholes in the legislation permit many

Estimation of the prevalence and direct medical costs of chronic myeloid leukemia in the I.R. of Iran in the era of tyrosine kinase inhibitors.

PubMed

Daroudi, Rajabali; Mirzania, Mehrzad; Nikravanfard, Nazila; Sadighi, Sanambar; Sedighi, Zahra; Zendehdel, Kazem

2017-10-01

After the introduction of tyrosine kinase inhibitors for chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), the survival of these patients has increased significantly. However, these new drugs are expensive and impose considerable expense to patients and governments. Epidemiologic and economic evaluation studies provide good information for resource allocation and decision making. We estimated the incidence, prevalence and direct medical cost of CML in Iran. We used the National Cancer Registry (NCR) data from 2006 to 2009 to estimate the incidence rate of CML (ICD-10 code C92.1). After adjustment for the underestimation of incidence rates, we used survival rates of CML and estimated the 5-year prevalence for these patients. In addition, we used clinical practice guideline, expert opinions and medical tariffs to estimate the direct medical costs through the prevalence approach. After an adjustment for the underestimation, the incidence rate of CML was 0.5 per 100 000 in the I.R. of Iran. The 5-year prevalence was about 2263 cases (2.98 per 100 000). The total direct medical cost of CML was $23 089 323 and the majority of the cost (97%) was related to drug costs. The total cost will increase considerably to $40 728 869 if all patients use the new drug nilotinib (800 mg/day) as a second-line treatment. The increased survival of CML patients and a possible increase in incidence of CML in Iran will most likely lead to a considerable rise in its prevalence and economic burden. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

[Prevalence of myasthenia gravis in Antioquia, Colombia].

PubMed

Sánchez, J L; Uribe, C S; Franco, A F; Jiménez, M E; Arcos-Burgos, O M; Palacio, L G

Myasthenia gravis (MG), considered the commonest of all the illnesses that affect neuromuscular transmission, is a disorder in which the autoimmune system attacks the post synaptic acetylcholine receptor proteins in the end plate terminal; it is characterised by weakness and skeletal muscle fatigue, with no anomalies in reflexes, sensitivity or coordination. Epidemiological indicators, such as incidence and prevalence, are not known in Colombia. AIMS. To determine the prevalence of MG among the inhabitants of Antioquia, through the use of the capture recapture method. The capture recapture method was used for two sources, the Instituto Neurológico de Antioquia and the Hospital Universitario San Vicente de Pa l, which are the most important institutions for the diagnosis of neurological diseases in Antioquia. MG prevalence was calculated using the following formula: p= n/N 105. We examined the data from the period between 1 July 1995 and 30 June 2000 with the aim of identifying subjects who fitted the profile of MG sufferers. General MG prevalence in Antioquia was 27.7 cases per million inhabitants (CI 95%= 23.2 32.2). The male/female ratio was 1:3.77. The estimated prevalence of MG is lower than that reported in United States and other temperate regions, where it varies between 60 and 150 cases per million. The prevalence of MG is low in Antioquia, as in other tropical areas

National Estimates of Exposure to Traumatic Events and PTSD Prevalence Using DSM-IV and DSM-5 Criteria

PubMed Central

Kilpatrick, Dean G.; Resnick, Heidi S.; Milanak, Melissa E.; Miller, Mark W.; Keyes, Katherine M.; Friedman, Matthew J.

2014-01-01

Prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) defined according to the American Psychiatric Association’s Diagnostic and Statistical Manual fifth edition (DSM-5; 2013) and fourth edition (DSM-IV; 1994) was compared in a national sample of U.S. adults (N = 2,953) recruited from an online panel. Exposure to traumatic events, PTSD symptoms, and functional impairment were assessed online using a highly structured, self-administered survey. Traumatic event exposure using DSM-5 criteria was high (89.7%), and exposure to multiple traumatic event types was the norm. PTSD caseness was determined using Same Event (i.e., all symptom criteria met to the same event type) and Composite Event (i.e., symptom criteria met to a combination of event types) definitions. Lifetime, past-12-month, and past 6-month PTSD prevalence using the Same Event definition for DSM-5 was 8.3%, 4.7%, and 3.8% respectively. All 6 DSM-5 prevalence estimates were slightly lower than their DSM-IV counterparts, although only 2 of these differences were statistically significant. DSM-5 PTSD prevalence was higher among women than among men, and prevalence increased with greater traumatic event exposure. Major reasons individuals met DSM-IV criteria, but not DSM-5 criteria were the exclusion of nonaccidental, nonviolent deaths from Criterion A, and the new requirement of at least 1 active avoidance symptom. PMID:24151000

Estimated burden of fungal infections in Kenya.

PubMed

Guto, John Abuga; Bii, Christine C; Denning, David W

2016-08-31

Kenya is a developing country with a high rate of tuberculosis (TB) and a moderate HIV infection burden. No estimate of the burden of fungal diseases in Kenya is published. We used specific populations at risk and fungal infection frequencies from the literature to estimate national incidence or prevalence of serious fungal infections. Used sources were: 2010 WHO TB statistics, Kenya Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) Epidemic Update 2012, Kenya Facts and figures 2012, Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2008-2009. Of Kenya's population of ~40 million, 43% are under 15 years old and approximately 594,660 Kenyan women get >4 episodes Candida vulvovaginitis annually (2,988/100,000). The HIV/AIDS population at risk of opportunistic infections (OI) is 480,000 and the OI estimates include 306,000 patients with oral thrush (768/100,000), 114,000 with oesophageal candidiasis (286/100,000), 11,900 with cryptococcal meningitis (29/100,000) and 17,000 patients with Pneumocystis pneumonia (42/100,000). Chronic pulmonary aspergillosis following TB has a prevalence of 10,848 cases (32/100,000). The adult asthma prevalence is 3.1% and assuming 2.5% have allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis then 17,696 (44/100,000) are affected.  Invasive aspergillosis, candidaemia and Candida peritonitis are probably uncommon. Tinea capitis infects 9.6% of children in Kenya, while fungal keratitis and otomycoses are difficult to estimate. At any one time, about 7% of the Kenyan population suffers from a significant fungal infection, with recurrent vaginitis and tinea capitis accounting for 82% of the infections. These estimates require further epidemiological studies for validation.

Factors affecting the prevalence of mange-mite infestations in stray dogs of Yucatán, Mexico.

PubMed

Rodriguez-Vivas, R I; Ortega-Pacheco, A; Rosado-Aguilar, J A; Bolio, G M E

2003-07-10

The aim of the present study was to determine the factors affecting the prevalence of mange-mite infestations in stray dogs of Yucatán, Mexico. The study was carried out in 200 stray dogs of Mérida capital city of Yucatán, Mexico. Four samples (head, thoracic-abdominal area, extremities and ear) were taken from each animal by skin scraping and examined microscopically in 10% KOH solution to detect the presence of mites. Mites were also collected from the external ear canal of dogs using cotton-tipped swabs. The prevalence of different mite species was calculated. A primary screening was performed using 2xK contingency tables of exposure variables. All variables with P< or =0.20 were analyzed by a logistic-binomial regression. The overall prevalence was 34%. Demodex canis (23.0%) was the most frequent mite, followed by Sarcoptes scabei var. canis (7.0%) and Otodectes cynotis (3.5%). The following factors were found: body condition (bad, OR: 5.35, CI 95%: 1.66-17.3; regular, OR: 3.72, CI 95%: 1.39-9.99) and the presence of macroscopic lesions of dermatosis (OR: 42.80, CI 95%: 13.65-134.24).

Estimation of Microbial Contamination of Food from Prevalence and Concentration Data: Application to Listeria monocytogenes in Fresh Vegetables▿

PubMed Central

Crépet, Amélie; Albert, Isabelle; Dervin, Catherine; Carlin, Frédéric

2007-01-01

A normal distribution and a mixture model of two normal distributions in a Bayesian approach using prevalence and concentration data were used to establish the distribution of contamination of the food-borne pathogenic bacteria Listeria monocytogenes in unprocessed and minimally processed fresh vegetables. A total of 165 prevalence studies, including 15 studies with concentration data, were taken from the scientific literature and from technical reports and used for statistical analysis. The predicted mean of the normal distribution of the logarithms of viable L. monocytogenes per gram of fresh vegetables was −2.63 log viable L. monocytogenes organisms/g, and its standard deviation was 1.48 log viable L. monocytogenes organisms/g. These values were determined by considering one contaminated sample in prevalence studies in which samples are in fact negative. This deliberate overestimation is necessary to complete calculations. With the mixture model, the predicted mean of the distribution of the logarithm of viable L. monocytogenes per gram of fresh vegetables was −3.38 log viable L. monocytogenes organisms/g and its standard deviation was 1.46 log viable L. monocytogenes organisms/g. The probabilities of fresh unprocessed and minimally processed vegetables being contaminated with concentrations higher than 1, 2, and 3 log viable L. monocytogenes organisms/g were 1.44, 0.63, and 0.17%, respectively. Introducing a sensitivity rate of 80 or 95% in the mixture model had a small effect on the estimation of the contamination. In contrast, introducing a low sensitivity rate (40%) resulted in marked differences, especially for high percentiles. There was a significantly lower estimation of contamination in the papers and reports of 2000 to 2005 than in those of 1988 to 1999 and a lower estimation of contamination of leafy salads than that of sprouts and other vegetables. The interest of the mixture model for the estimation of microbial contamination is discussed. PMID

Prevalence of Estimated GFR Reporting Among US Clinical Laboratories

PubMed Central

Accetta, Nancy A.; Gladstone, Elisa H.; DiSogra, Charles; Wright, Elizabeth C.; Briggs, Michael; Narva, Andrew S.

2008-01-01

Background Routine laboratory reporting of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) may help clinicians detect kidney disease. The current national prevalence of eGFR reporting among clinical laboratories is unknown, thus the extent of the situation of laboratories not routinely reporting eGFR with serum creatinine (SCr) results is not quantified. Design Observational analysis. Setting National Kidney Disease Education Program survey of clinical laboratory conducted in 2006-7 by mail, Web, and telephone follow up. Participants A national random sample, 6,350 clinical laboratories, drawn from the Federal Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments database and stratified by six major laboratory types/groupings. Predictors Laboratory reports SCr results. Outcomes Reporting eGFR values along with SCr results. Measurements Percent of laboratories reporting eGFR along with reporting SCr, reporting protocol, eGFR formula used, and style of reporting cutoff values. Results Among laboratories reporting SCr, 38.4% report eGFR (physician offices, 25.8%; hospitals, 43.6%; independents, 38.9%; community clinics, 47.2%; health fair/insurance/public health, 45.5%; others, 43.2%). Physician office laboratories have a reporting prevalence lower than other laboratory types (p < 0.001). Among laboratories reporting eGFR, 66.7% do so routinely with all adult SCr determinations; 71.6% use the 4-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study equation; and 45.3% use the “>60 mL/min/1.73 m2” reporting convention. Independent laboratories are least likely to routinely report eGFR, (50.6%, p < .05) and most likely to report only when specifically requested (45.4%, p < 0.05). High-volume laboratories across all strata are more likely to report eGFR (p < 0.001). Limitations Self-reporting by laboratories, Federal database did not have names of laboratory directors/managers (intended respondents), assumed accuracy of Federal database for sample purposes. Conclusions Routine e

Effect of nondisclosure of HIV status in sexual health clinics on unlinked anonymous HIV prevalence estimates in England, 2005-2009.

PubMed

Savage, Emma J; Lowndes, Catherine M; Sullivan, Ann K; Back, David J; Else, Laura J; Murphy, Gary; Gill, O Noel

2016-01-02

To assess the extent of nondisclosure of known HIV status among sexual health clinic attendees and to quantify the impact of nondisclosure on estimates of undiagnosed HIV prevalence and of the proportion of patients remaining undiagnosed on leaving the clinic. Serum samples from the unlinked anonymous survey of clinic attendees' archive were tested for antiretrovirals. Estimates of undiagnosed HIV were adjusted using the findings. Antiretrovirals were detected in 27% of samples taken from 'previously undiagnosed' attendees, who did not have an HIV test but were HIV positive as detected by unlinked anonymous testing, indicating nondisclosure; 24% of such samples from MSM had antiretrovirals present compared with 32% of heterosexual men and women. Antiretrovirals were detected in 33% of samples from London clinics and in 21% from non-London clinics. Following adjustment, the estimated prevalence of undiagnosed HIV decreased nonsignificantly from 3.04% (95% confidence interval 2.71-3.41) to 2.66% (2.35-3.01) among men who have sex with men (MSM), 0.31% (0.26-0.37) to 0.30% (0.25-0.36) in heterosexual men and 0.40% (0.35-0.46) to 0.37% (0.32-0.43) in women; 7% of MSM who do not have an HIV test at a clinic visit will be infected with HIV and remain unaware of their infection. Nondisclosure of HIV status to healthcare professionals occurs among clinic attendees. Adjustment for nondisclosure results in a small, nonsignificant decrease in the prevalence of undiagnosed HIV estimated from the unlinked anonymous survey in sexual health clinics. Testing the population of MSM not having an HIV test remains a priority as levels of undiagnosed HIV are high.

[Prevalence of malnutrition in Spanish schoolchildren].

PubMed

Pérez-Ríos, Mónica; Santiago-Pérez, María I; Leis, Rosaura; Malvar, Alberto; Suanzes, Jorge; Hervada, Xurxo

2017-11-01

The term malnutrition includes malnutrition due to excess or obesity, underweight as well as stunted growth. Its prevalence in a population can be estimated using anthropometric variables. The aim of this study is to estimate the prevalence of malnutrition in Galician schoolchildren aged 6 to 15years in the school year 2013-2014. A cross-sectional study was conducted on a representative sample by gender and age of the Galician population of 6 to 15years old. The prevalence of obesity, underweight, and short stature was estimated by age and gender using the reference standards proposed by the World Health Organisation. Of the total of 7,438 schoolchildren weighed and measured, 16.4% had malnutrition. The prevalence of obesity was 14.8%, underweight was 0.7%, and short stature for age was estimated at 1%. Obesity was more prevalent among boys. As regards underweight and short stature, when there were differences, prevalence was higher among girls. In Galicia, 16 out of every 100 schoolchildren aged 6 to 15years had malnutrition, with that due to excess or obesity being the most frequent. Prevalence of underweight and short stature did not exceed 1%. This data shows that primary prevention measures should be promoted at an early age to reduce malnutrition due to excess or adiposity, in particular. Copyright © 2017. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U.

Variation of a test's sensitivity and specificity with disease prevalence.

PubMed

Leeflang, Mariska M G; Rutjes, Anne W S; Reitsma, Johannes B; Hooft, Lotty; Bossuyt, Patrick M M

2013-08-06

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the sensitivity and specificity of a diagnostic test may vary with disease prevalence. Our objective was to investigate the associations between disease prevalence and test sensitivity and specificity using studies of diagnostic accuracy. We used data from 23 meta-analyses, each of which included 10-39 studies (416 total). The median prevalence per review ranged from 1% to 77%. We evaluated the effects of prevalence on sensitivity and specificity using a bivariate random-effects model for each meta-analysis, with prevalence as a covariate. We estimated the overall effect of prevalence by pooling the effects using the inverse variance method. Within a given review, a change in prevalence from the lowest to highest value resulted in a corresponding change in sensitivity or specificity from 0 to 40 percentage points. This effect was statistically significant (p < 0.05) for either sensitivity or specificity in 8 meta-analyses (35%). Overall, specificity tended to be lower with higher disease prevalence; there was no such systematic effect for sensitivity. The sensitivity and specificity of a test often vary with disease prevalence; this effect is likely to be the result of mechanisms, such as patient spectrum, that affect prevalence, sensitivity and specificity. Because it may be difficult to identify such mechanisms, clinicians should use prevalence as a guide when selecting studies that most closely match their situation.

Individuals receiving specialized treatment for drug and alcohol dependence and gambling disorder in Israel--characteristics and implications for prevalence estimates.

PubMed

Lev-Ran, Shaul; Florentin, Iris; Feingold, Daniel; Rehm, Jürgen

2014-01-01

Substance dependence is one of the main factors contributing to morbidity and mortality worldwide. Gambling disorder has recently been included as an addictive disorder in DSM-5 (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th edition) and is associated with substantial psychiatric comorbidity and respective disability. Nevertheless, the vast majority of those suffering from these disorders do not receive treatment. In Israel, prevalence of substance dependence has traditionally been estimated to be lower than those in high-income countries, though prevalence estimates from the recent decade are lacking. Moreover, characteristics of individuals seeking treatment for substance dependence and gambling disorder have not been published. In this study, the authors analyzed data from the Israel National Addiction Registry, a computerized database that includes sociodemographic characteristics of all individuals treated in specialized public facilities for substance dependence and gambling disorders in the years 2003-2012. The prevalence of treatment utilization for drug and alcohol dependence and gambling disorders were 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.01%, respectively. These rates generally remained stable throughout the last decade. Individuals seeking treatment for alcohol dependence were in the lower socioeconomic status (SES) cluster, whereas those seeking treatment for drug dependence were in the midrange SES clusters, findings that are generally in concurrence with characteristics of treatment seekers in high-income countries. Prevalence estimates based on reports indicating that approximately 10% of individuals with substance dependence seek treatment suggest rates of alcohol dependence in Israel that are substantially higher those previously published, though still lower than most high-income countries. Nationwide epidemiologic studies exploring current rates of substance dependence and gambling disorder in Israel are urgently needed, and treatment options should

Estimated prevalence and incidence of diagnosed ADHD and health care utilization in adults in Sweden – a longitudinal population-based register study

PubMed Central

Polyzoi, Maria; Ahnemark, Ewa; Medin, Emma; Ginsberg, Ylva

2018-01-01

Background Although the worldwide prevalence of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in adults is estimated to be between 2% and 5%, it is considered to be underdiagnosed. This register study explored the prevalence of diagnosed ADHD and incidence of newly diagnosed ADHD in Swedish adults over time, and assessed comorbidities and pharmacologic treatment. Methods National Patient Register data were used to estimate the overall prevalence of adults (≥18 years) with a registered ADHD diagnosis from 2006 to 2011, and the incidence of newly registered diagnoses from 2007 to 2011. Data from the Prescribed Drug Register were used to estimate the mean dose of the most frequently prescribed ADHD medication. Results The estimated annual prevalence (N=44,364) of diagnosed ADHD increased from 0.58 per 1,000 persons in 2006 to 3.54 per 1,000 persons in 2011. The estimated annual incidence of newly diagnosed ADHD (N=24,921) increased from 0.39 per 1,000 persons to 0.90 per 1,000 persons between 2007 and 2011. At least one comorbidity was diagnosed in 52.6% of adults with ADHD (54.0% of newly diagnosed adults), with anxiety, substance use disorders, and depression being the most common. Among all adults with ADHD, 78.9% (65.7% of newly diagnosed adults) were prescribed ADHD medication and one-third were prescribed more than one add-on medication. Osmotic release oral system methylphenidate was the most commonly used medication. The mean daily dose was 51.5 mg, and was significantly higher in males, patients with substance use disorders, patients with drug holidays, and patients with at least one add-on medication. The most frequent concomitant medications were anxiolytics and hypnotics. Conclusion In Sweden, the number of adults diagnosed with ADHD increased between 2006 and 2011, and the majority of patients were prescribed ADHD-specific medication. Over one-half of patients had psychiatric comorbidities; one-third were prescribed more than one add-on medication

Trends in Adult Chlamydia and Gonorrhea Prevalence, Incidence and Urethral Discharge Case Reporting in Morocco over 1995–2015—Estimates Using the Spectrum-Sexually Transmitted Infection Model

PubMed Central

El-Kettani, Amina; Mahiané, Guy; Bennani, Aziza; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Smolak, Alex; Rowley, Jane; Nagelkerke, Nico; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Alami, Kamal; Hançali, Amina; Korenromp, Eline

2017-01-01

Background Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on sexually transmitted infections (STI) trends to inform program planning and resource allocation. Methods The Spectrum modeling tool estimated prevalence and incidence of gonorrhea and chlamydia in Morocco's 15- to 49-year-old population, based on prevalence surveys. Incident cases, broken down between symptomatic and asymptomatic, and treated versus untreated, were compared with urethral discharge (UD) case reports, to estimate reporting completeness among treated UD cases. Results Gonorrhea prevalence was estimated at 0.37% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.14–1.0%) in women and 0.32% (0.12–0.87%) in men in 2015; chlamydia prevalences were 3.8% (95% CI, 2.1–6.4%) and 3.0% (95% CI, 1.7–5.1%). Corresponding estimated numbers of new cases in women and men in 2015 were 79,598 (95% CI, 23,918–256,206) and 112,013 (95% CI, 28,700–307,433) for gonorrhea, and 291,908 (95% CI, 161,064–524,270) and 314,032 (95% CI, 186,076–559,133) for chlamydia. Gonorrhea and chlamydia prevalence had declined by an estimated 41% and 27%, respectively, over 1995 to 2015. Prevalence declines probably related to improved STI treatment coverage, and decreasing risk behaviors. Reporting completeness among treated UD cases was estimated at 46% to 77% in 2015. Reported UD cases corresponded to 13% of all estimated (symptomatic and asymptomatic) gonorrhea and chlamydia cases. Conclusions STI declines and improvements in treatment coverage are consistent with Morocco’s introduction of syndromic management in 2000, scale-up of prevention, and declining human immunodeficiency virus incidence. While gonorrhea is four-fold more common as cause of clinical UD cases than chlamydia, Morocco continues to suffer a large, untreated burden of chlamydia. Reliable monitoring of both STIs requires new periodic surveys and/or novel forms of affordable surveillance beyond high-risk populations. PMID

Narrative Review: Sexually Transmitted Diseases and Homeless Youth-What Do We Know About Sexually Transmitted Disease Prevalence and Risk?

PubMed

Caccamo, Alexandra; Kachur, Rachel; Williams, Samantha P

2017-08-01

Homelessness affects an estimated 1.6 million US youth annually. Compared with housed youth, homeless youth are more likely to engage in high-risk behaviors, including inconsistent condom use, multiple sex partners, survival sex, and alcohol/drug use, putting them at increased sexually transmitted disease (STD) risk. However, there is no national estimate of STD prevalence among this population. We identified 10 peer-reviewed articles (9 unique studies) reporting STD prevalence among homeless US youth (2000-2015). Descriptive and qualitative analyses identified STD prevalence ranges and risk factors among youth. Eight studies reported specific STD prevalence estimates, mainly chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis. Overall STD prevalence among homeless youth ranged from 6% to 32%. STD rates for girls varied from 16.7% to 46%, and from 9% to 13.1% in boys. Most studies were conducted in the Western United States, with no studies from the Southeast or Northeast. Youths who experienced longer periods of homelessness were more likely to engage in high-risk sexual behaviors. Girls had lower rates of condom use and higher rates of STDs; boys were more likely to engage in anal and anonymous sex. Additionally, peer social networks contributed to protective effects on individual sexual risk behavior. Sexually transmitted disease prevalence estimates among homeless youth fluctuated greatly by study. Sexually transmitted disease risk behaviors are associated with unmet survival needs, length of homelessness, and influence of social networks. To promote sexual health and reduce STD rates, we need better estimates of STD prevalence, more geographic diversity of studies, and interventions addressing the behavioral associations identified in our review.

Estimated Prevalence of Cryptococcus Antigenemia (CrAg) among HIV-Infected Adults with Advanced Immunosuppression in Namibia Justifies Routine Screening and Preemptive Treatment.

PubMed

Sawadogo, Souleymane; Makumbi, Boniface; Purfield, Anne; Ndjavera, Christophine; Mutandi, Gram; Maher, Andrew; Kaindjee-Tjituka, Francina; Kaplan, Jonathan E; Park, Benjamin J; Lowrance, David W

2016-01-01

Cryptococcal meningitis is common and associated with high mortality among HIV infected persons. The World Health Organization recommends that routine Cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) screening in ART-naïve adults with a CD4+ count <100 cells/μL followed by pre-emptive antifungal therapy for CrAg-positive patients be considered where CrAg prevalence is ≥3%. The prevalence of CrAg among HIV adults in Namibia is unknown. We estimated CrAg prevalence among HIV-infected adults receiving care in Namibia for the purpose of informing routine screening strategies. The study design was cross-sectional. De-identified plasma specimens collected for routine CD4+ testing from HIV-infected adults enrolled in HIV care at 181 public health facilities from November 2013 to January 2014 were identified at the national reference laboratory. Remnant plasma from specimens with CD4+ counts <200 cells/μL were sampled and tested for CrAg using the IMMY® Lateral Flow Assay. CrAg prevalence was estimated and assessed for associations with age, sex, and CD4+ count. A total of 825 specimens were tested for CrAg. The median (IQR) age of patients from whom specimens were collected was 38 (32-46) years, 45.9% were female and 62.9% of the specimens had CD4 <100 cells/μL. CrAg prevalence was 3.3% overall and 3.9% and 2.3% among samples with CD4+ counts of CD4+<100 cells/μL and 100-200 cells/μL, respectively. CrAg positivity was significantly higher among patients with CD4+ cells/μL < 50 (7.2%, P = 0.001) relative to those with CD4 cells/μL 50-200 (2.2%). This is the first study to estimate CrAg prevalence among HIV-infected patients in Namibia. CrAg prevalence of ≥3.0% among patients with CD4+<100 cells/μL justifies routine CrAg screening and preemptive treatment among HIV-infected in Namibia in line with WHO recommendations. Patients with CD4+<100 cells/μL have a significantly greater risk for CrAg positivity. Revised guidelines for ART in Namibia now recommend routine screening for CrAg.

Thermocouple Probe Orientation Affects Prescribed Fire Behavior Estimation.

PubMed

Coates, T Adam; Chow, Alex T; Hagan, Donald L; Waldrop, Thomas A; Wang, G Geoff; Bridges, William C; Rogers, Mary-Frances; Dozier, James H

2018-01-01

Understanding the relationship between fire intensity and fuel mass is essential information for scientists and forest managers seeking to manage forests using prescribed fires. Peak burning temperature, duration of heating, and area under the temperature profile are fire behavior metrics obtained from thermocouple-datalogger assemblies used to characterize prescribed burns. Despite their recurrent usage in prescribed burn studies, there is no simple protocol established to guide the orientation of thermocouple installation. Our results from dormant and growing season burns in coastal longleaf pine ( Mill.) forests in South Carolina suggest that thermocouples located horizontally at the litter-soil interface record significantly higher estimates of peak burning temperature, duration of heating, and area under the temperature profile than thermocouples extending 28 cm vertically above the litter-soil interface ( < 0.01). Surprisingly, vertical and horizontal estimates of these measures did not show strong correlation with one another ( ≤ 0.14). The horizontal duration of heating values were greater in growing season burns than in dormant season burns ( < 0.01), but the vertical values did not indicate this difference ( = 0.52). Field measures of fuel mass and depth before and after fire showed promise as significant predictive variables ( ≤ 0.05) for the fire behavior metrics. However, all correlation coefficients were less than or equal to = 0.41. Given these findings, we encourage scientists, researchers, and managers to carefully consider thermocouple orientation when investigating fire behavior metrics, as orientation may affect estimates of fire intensity and the distinction of fire treatment effects, particularly in forests with litter-dominated surface fuels. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

The prevalence of inflammatory back pain: population-based estimates from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2009-10.

PubMed

Weisman, Michael H; Witter, James P; Reveille, John D

2013-03-01

To estimate the current US inflammatory back pain (IBP) prevalence using four published case definitions. Analysis of an IBP data collection instrument specifically designed for the 2009-10 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Subjects were 5103 US adults ages 20-69 with complete data. IBP prevalence as determined by Calin et al criteria, European Spondylarthropathy Study Group (ESSG) criteria, and Berlin criteria 8a and 7b. Age-adjusted US prevalence of IBP by Calin criteria was 5.0% (95% CI 4.2% to 5.8%). Prevalence of IBP was 5.6% (95% CI 4.7% to 6.5%) by ESSG criteria, and 5.8% (95% CI 5.2% to 6.4%) and 6.0% (95% CI 4.9% to 7.1%) by Berlin Criteria 8a and 7b, respectively. IBP prevalence did not differ significantly by age groups or between men and women. IBP prevalence was significantly lower among non-Hispanic black persons compared with non-Hispanic white persons for the Calin and ESSG IBP criteria. For the ESSG and Berlin 7b criteria, non-Hispanic white persons had significantly higher IBP prevalences compared with Mexican Americans. IBP is associated with spondyloarthritis. Awareness of the prevalence of IBP may be useful for planning future epidemiological studies as well as development and validation of diagnostic and classification criteria for specific clinically defined diseases.

How does the host population's network structure affect the estimation accuracy of epidemic parameters?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yashima, Kenta; Ito, Kana; Nakamura, Kazuyuki

2013-03-01

When an Infectious disease where to prevail throughout the population, epidemic parameters such as the basic reproduction ratio, initial point of infection etc. are estimated from the time series data of infected population. However, it is unclear how does the structure of host population affects this estimation accuracy. In other words, what kind of city is difficult to estimate its epidemic parameters? To answer this question, epidemic data are simulated by constructing a commuting network with different network structure and running the infection process over this network. From the given time series data for each network structure, we would like to analyzed estimation accuracy of epidemic parameters.

Depressive affect in incident hemodialysis patients.

PubMed

McDougall, Kathryn A; Larkin, John W; Wingard, Rebecca L; Jiao, Yue; Rosen, Sophia; Ma, Lin; Usvyat, Len A; Maddux, Franklin W

2018-02-01

The prevalence of depressive affect is not well defined in the incident hemodialysis (HD) population. We investigated the prevalence of and associated risk factors and hospitalization rates for depressive affect in incident HD patients. We performed a prospective investigation using the Patient Health Questionnaire 2 (PHQ2) depressive affect assessment. From January to July of 2013 at 108 in-center clinics randomly selected across tertiles of baseline quality measures, we contacted 577 and 543 patients by telephone for depressive affect screening. PHQ2 test scores range from 0 to 6 (scores  ≥3 suggest the presence of depressive affect). The prevalence of depressive affect was measured at 1-30 and 121-150 days after initiating HD; depressive affect risk factors and hospitalization rates by depressive affect status at 1-30 days after starting HD were computed. Of 1120 contacted patients, 340 completed the PHQ2. In patients screened at 1-30 or 121-150 days after starting HD, depressive affect prevalence was 20.2% and 18.5%, respectively (unpaired t -test, P = 0.7). In 35 patients screened at both time points, there were trends for lower prevalence of depressive affect at the end of incident HD, with 20.0% and 5.7% of patients positive for depressive affect at 1-30 and 121-150 days, respectively (paired t -test, P = 0.1). Hospitalization rates were higher in patients with depressive affect during the first 30 days, exhibiting 1.5 more admissions (P < 0.001) and 10.5 additional hospital days (P = 0.008) per patient-year. Females were at higher risk for depressive affect at 1-30 days (P = 0.01). The prevalence of depressive affect in HD patients is high throughout the incident period. Rates of hospital admissions and hospital days are increased in incident HD patients with depressive affect.

Agricultural management affects below ground carbon input estimations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirte, Juliane; Leifeld, Jens; Abiven, Samuel; Oberholzer, Hans-Rudolf; Mayer, Jochen

2017-04-01

Root biomass and rhizodeposition carbon (C release by living roots) are among the most relevant root parameters for studies of plant response to environmental change, soil C modelling or estimations of soil C sequestration. Below ground C inputs of agricultural crops are typically estimated from above ground biomass or yield, thereby implying constant below to above ground C ratios. Agricultural management practices affect above ground biomass considerably; however, their effects on below ground C inputs are only poorly understood. Our aims were therefore to (i) quantify root biomass C and rhizodeposition C of maize and wheat grown in agricultural management systems with different fertilization intensities and (ii) determine management effects on below/above ground C ratios and vertical distribution of below ground C inputs into soil. We conducted a comprehensive field study on two Swiss long-term field trials, DOK (Basel) and ZOFE (Zurich), with silage (DOK) and grain (ZOFE) maize in 2013 and winter wheat in 2014 (ZOFE) and 2015 (DOK). Three treatments in DOK (2 bio-organic, 1 mixed conventional) and 4 treatments in ZOFE (1 without, 1 manure, 2 mineral fertilization) reflected increasing fertilization intensities. In each of 4 replicated field plots per treatment, one microplot (steel tube of 0.5m depth) was inserted into soil, covering an area of 0.1m2. The microplot plants were pulse-labelled with 13C-CO2 in weekly intervals throughout the respective growing season. After harvest, the microplot soil was sampled in three soil depths (0 - 0.25, 0.25 - 0.5, 0.5 - 0.75m), roots were separated from soil by picking and wet sieving, and root and soil samples were analysed for their δ13C values by IRMS. Carbon rhizodeposition was calculated from 13C-excess values in bulk soil and roots. (i) Average root biomasses of maize and wheat were 1.9 and 1.4 tha 1, respectively, in DOK and 0.9 and 1.1 tha 1, respectively, in ZOFE. Average amounts of C rhizodeposition of maize

Differences between the prevalence of obesity and weight exceded estimated according to reported or direct measurement in adult people of Valencian Region

PubMed

Jiménez-Talamantes, Raquel; Rizk Hernández, Jennifer; Quiles Izquierdo, Joan

2017-02-01

Introduction: The assessment of obesity in health surveys includes the study of the physical characteristics of human body. Anthropometrical dates can be obtained by measurement or by interview. According the method that we were used we can estimate different values for frequencies of this problem. Objectives: Measure the discrepancies of the frequency of obesity and overweight estimated with data of height and weight obtained by interview respect to those measured in a population survey. Methods: Cross-sectional survey of a sample of 1,153 adult subjects, where height and weight data reported and measured were compared by Pearson correlation. It was estimated the prevalence of obesity and overweight by two methods and we calculated the Kappa’s index, the sensitivity and specifi city for to define the predictive capacity of reported data. Results: The values of weight, height and BMI by declared and measured data presented a correlation of 0.96, 0.93 and 0.91, respectively. The prevalence of obesity was 16.4% with declared data and 23.3% for measured data (kappa = 0.68), sensitivity 63.2% and specifi city 97.9%. The prevalence of excess of weight was 51.4% with declared data and 61.1% for measured data (kappa = 0.73), sensitivity 81.3% and specificity 95.3%. These differences were statistically signifi cant. Conclusions: There is an underestimation of the prevalence of obesity and excess of weight in populations when anthropometric data were used but in good agreement and specificity was found when measured data are used.

Prevalence of Mental Health problems in sentenced men in prisons from Andalucía (Spain).

PubMed

López, M; Saavedra, F J; López, A; Laviana, M

2016-12-01

To estimate the prevalence of different mental health problems in men serving prison sentences in Andalusia. Descriptive, cross-sectional study of a random sample of 472 men interned in two prisons located in Andalusia. We collected socio-demographic and general criminal and penitentiary data, and we identified mental health problems with two validated instruments for epidemiological research in mental health: the SCID-I interview to diagnose Axis 1 disorders of the DSM-IV and the self-applied questionnaire IPDE to estimate personality disorders. We analyzed the data (proportions and confidence intervals) with the SPSS-18 statistical package. 82.6% of the sample had a history of having suffered some type of mental health problem throughout their life (prevalence-life) and 25.8 have suffered from them in the past month (month prevalence). The most common disorders of the Axis I (DSM-IV) are related to abuse of and dependence on psychoactive substances (prevalence life of 65.9% and month prevalence of 6.6%), with an important but less frequent presence of affective (31.4%-9.3%), anxiety (30.9%-10, 4%) and psychotic disorders (9.5%-3, 4%). As regards personality disorders, the estimated probable prevalence lies between the 56.6% ("5" cutoff point) and the 79.9 ("4" cut-off point). The male inmate population in prisons in Andalucía shows a high prevalence of mental health problems, similar to that found in other Spanish and international prisons, but their care needs should take into account the different pathologies that they present.

Prevalence of common mental disorders among sugarcane workers.

PubMed

Costa, Polyana Felipe Ferreira da; Santos, Solange Laurentino Dos; Silva, Marcelo Saturnino da; Gurgel, Idê Gomes Dantas

2017-12-11

To estimate the prevalence of common mental disorders and to analyze the associated factors in migrant and sugarcane workers. This is a cross-sectional study carried out with 110 workers. Common mental disorders were evaluated using the Self-Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ-20), and sociodemographic, occupational, and lifestyle variables were studied. The CAGE questionnaire was used to detect the abuse of alcoholic beverages. The prevalence of common mental disorders affected 40% of the workers and the association showed statistical significance for the positive result of the CAGE test, sickness, absence from work, and medical care during the harvest period. The suspected cases of problem drinkers and the control mechanisms used by the mill for workers who miss work or become ill are factors that can cause common mental disorders.

Widespread rape does not directly appear to increase the overall HIV prevalence in conflict-affected countries: so now what?

PubMed Central

Anema, Aranka; Joffres, Michel R; Mills, Edward; Spiegel, Paul B

2008-01-01

Background Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is severely affected by HIV/AIDS and conflict. Sexual violence as a weapon of war has been associated with concerns about heightened HIV incidence among women. Widespread rape by combatants has been documented in Burundi, Sierra Leone, Rwanda, Democratic Republic of Congo, Liberia, Sudan and Uganda. To examine the assertion that widespread rape may not directly increase HIV prevalence at the population level, we built a model to determine the potential impact of varying scenarios of widespread rape on HIV prevalence in the above seven African countries. Discussion Our findings show that even in the most extreme situations, where 15% of the female population was raped, where HIV prevalence among assailants was 8 times the country population prevalence, and where the HIV transmission rate was highest at 4 times the average high rate, widespread rape increased the absolute HIV prevalence of these countries by only 0.023%. These projections support the finding that widespread rape in conflict-affected countries in SSA has not incurred a major direct population-level change in HIV prevalence. However, this must not be interpreted to say that widespread rape does not pose serious problems to women's acquisition of HIV on an individual basis or in specific settings. Furthermore, direct and indirect consequences of sexual violence, such as physical and psychosocial trauma, unwanted pregnancies, and stigma and discrimination cannot be understated. Summary The conclusions of this article do not significantly change current practices in the field from an operational perspective. Proper care and treatment must be provided to every survivor of rape regardless of the epidemiological effects of HIV transmission at the population level. Sexual violence must be treated as a protection issue and not solely a reproductive health and psychosocial issue. It is worth publishing data and conclusions that could be misconstrued and may not make much of a

Prevalence of treated epilepsy in Korea based on national health insurance data.

PubMed

Lee, Seo-Young; Jung, Ki-Young; Lee, Il Keun; Yi, Sang Do; Cho, Yong Won; Kim, Dong Wook; Hwang, Seung-Sik; Kim, Sejin

2012-03-01

The Korean national health security system covers the entire population and all medical facilities. We aimed to estimate epilepsy prevalence, anticonvulsant utilization pattern and the cost. We identified prevalent epilepsy patients by the prescription of anticonvulsants under the diagnostic codes suggesting seizure or epilepsy from 2007 Korean National Health Insurance databases. The information of demography, residential area, the kind of medical security service reflecting economic status, anticonvulsants, and the costs was extracted. The overall prevalence of treated epilepsy patients was 2.41/1,000, and higher for men than women. The age-specific prevalence was the lowest in those in their thirties and forties. Epilepsy was more prevalent among lower-income individuals receiving medical aid. The regional prevalence was the highest in Jeju Island and lowest in Ulsan city. New anticonvulsants were more frequently used than old anticonvulsants in the younger age group. The total annual cost of epilepsy or seizure reached 0.46% of total medical expenditure and 0.27% of total expenditure on health. This is the first nationwide epidemiological report issued on epilepsy in Korea. Epilepsy prevalence in Korea is comparable to those in developed countries. Economic status and geography affect the prevalence of epilepsy.

FASD Prevalence among Schoolchildren in Poland.

PubMed

Okulicz-Kozaryn, Katarzyna; Borkowska, Magdalena; Brzózka, Krzysztof

2017-01-01

Prenatal Alcohol Exposure is a major cause of brain damage and developmental delay, known as Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders (FASD) but in Poland is rarely diagnosed and the scale of problem is not known. An active case ascertainment approach was applied to estimate the prevalence of FASD among 7-9 years olds. Pre-screening was conducted in 113 randomly selected regular and special schools. In the screening phase participated 280 children (54% from the risk group, 60% boys). The entire number of eligible students (N = 2500) was taken as a denominator. The prevalence of FASD is not lower than 2%, including 0.4% of Fetal Alcohol Syndrome. Neurodevelopmental disorders associated with PAE are a serious challenge for the public health system. Development of procedures and services to diagnose and to support individuals affected by PAE and their families is an urgent need in Poland. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Smoking prevalence: a comparison of two American surveys.

PubMed

Rodu, B; Cole, P

2009-09-01

To compare smoking prevalence estimates from two nationally representative surveys in the USA. Smoking prevalence estimates derived from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) for the period 1998-2005. Comparisons according to age (18-34 or 35+ years) and according to smoking frequency (every day or some days). In 1998, the prevalence of smoking in both surveys was nearly identical at 24%. From 1999 to 2005, a divergence occurred in smoking prevalence found by the NSDUH and the NHIS. By 2005, NHIS prevalence had declined to 20.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) 20.3-21.5], but the NSDUH estimate was 25.4% (95%CI 24.6-26.2), amounting to 9.1 million more smokers. In 1999, prevalence among 18-34 year olds in the NSDUH was only 18% (95%CI 13-22) higher than that in the NHIS, but that difference had doubled by 2005, when smoking prevalence among 18-34 year olds was 36% (95%CI 30-41) higher in the NSDUH than in the NHIS. NSDUH and NHIS prevalence among 35+ year olds were similar in 1999 and 2001, but the difference was 13% (95%CI 9-18) in 2005. Higher smoking prevalence estimates in the NSDUH were largely due to much higher estimates for some-day smoking in that survey, although every-day smoking prevalence among 18-34 year-olds was also higher in the NSDUH than in the NHIS. These results raise doubt about the recent decline in smoking prevalence described by the NHIS. Further investigation of the NSDUH/NHIS discrepancy may lead to better surveys and to a clearer picture of smoking trends in the USA.

Narrative Review: Sexually Transmitted Diseases and Homeless Youth—What Do We Know About Sexually Transmitted Disease Prevalence and Risk?

PubMed Central

Caccamo, Alexandra; Kachur, Rachel; Williams, Samantha P.

2018-01-01

Background Homelessness affects an estimated 1.6 million US youth annually. Compared with housed youth, homeless youth are more likely to engage in high-risk behaviors, including inconsistent condom use, multiple sex partners, survival sex, and alcohol/drug use, putting them at increased sexually transmitted disease (STD) risk. However, there is no national estimate of STD prevalence among this population. Methods We identified 10 peer-reviewed articles (9 unique studies) reporting STD prevalence among homeless US youth (2000–2015). Descriptive and qualitative analyses identified STD prevalence ranges and risk factors among youth. Results Eight studies reported specific STD prevalence estimates, mainly chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis. Overall STD prevalence among homeless youth ranged from 6% to 32%. STD rates for girls varied from 16.7% to 46%, and from 9% to 13.1% in boys. Most studies were conducted in the Western United States, with no studies from the Southeast or Northeast. Youths who experienced longer periods of homelessness were more likely to engage in high-risk sexual behaviors. Girls had lower rates of condom use and higher rates of STDs; boys were more likely to engage in anal and anonymous sex. Additionally, peer social networks contributed to protective effects on individual sexual risk behavior. Conclusions Sexually transmitted disease prevalence estimates among homeless youth fluctuated greatly by study. Sexually transmitted disease risk behaviors are associated with unmet survival needs, length of homelessness, and influence of social networks. To promote sexual health and reduce STD rates, we need better estimates of STD prevalence, more geographic diversity of studies, and interventions addressing the behavioral associations identified in our review. PMID:28703725

Prevalence of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease in the European Union.

PubMed

Willey, Cynthia J; Blais, Jaime D; Hall, Anthony K; Krasa, Holly B; Makin, Andrew J; Czerwiec, Frank S

2017-08-01

Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is a leading cause of end-stage renal disease, but estimates of its prevalence vary by >10-fold. The objective of this study was to examine the public health impact of ADPKD in the European Union (EU) by estimating minimum prevalence (point prevalence of known cases) and screening prevalence (minimum prevalence plus cases expected after population-based screening). A review of the epidemiology literature from January 1980 to February 2015 identified population-based studies that met criteria for methodological quality. These examined large German and British populations, providing direct estimates of minimum prevalence and screening prevalence. In a second approach, patients from the 2012 European Renal Association‒European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA-EDTA) Registry and literature-based inflation factors that adjust for disease severity and screening yield were used to estimate prevalence across 19 EU countries (N = 407 million). Population-based studies yielded minimum prevalences of 2.41 and 3.89/10 000, respectively, and corresponding estimates of screening prevalences of 3.3 and 4.6/10 000. A close correspondence existed between estimates in countries where both direct and registry-derived methods were compared, which supports the validity of the registry-based approach. Using the registry-derived method, the minimum prevalence was 3.29/10 000 (95% confidence interval 3.27-3.30), and if ADPKD screening was implemented in all countries, the expected prevalence was 3.96/10 000 (3.94-3.98). ERA-EDTA-based prevalence estimates and application of a uniform definition of prevalence to population-based studies consistently indicate that the ADPKD point prevalence is <5/10 000, the threshold for rare disease in the EU. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA.

Thermoregulatory behaviour affects prevalence of chytrid fungal infection in a wild population of Panamanian golden frogs

PubMed Central

Richards-Zawacki, Corinne L.

2010-01-01

Predicting how climate change will affect disease dynamics requires an understanding of how the environment affects host–pathogen interactions. For amphibians, global declines and extinctions have been linked to a pathogenic chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Using a combination of body temperature measurements and disease assays conducted before and after the arrival of B. dendrobatidis, this study tested the hypothesis that body temperature affects the prevalence of infection in a wild population of Panamanian golden frogs (Atelopus zeteki). The timing of first detection of the fungus was consistent with that of a wave of epidemic infections spreading south and eastward through Central America. During the epidemic, many golden frogs modified their thermoregulatory behaviour, raising body temperatures above their normal set point. Odds of infection decreased with increasing body temperature, demonstrating that even slight environmental or behavioural changes have the potential to affect an individual's vulnerability to infection. The thermal dependency of the relationship between B. dendrobatidis and its amphibian hosts demonstrates how the progression of an epidemic can be influenced by complex interactions between host and pathogen phenotypes and the environments in which they are found. PMID:19864287

Population estimates of extended family structure and size.

PubMed

Garceau, Anne; Wideroff, Louise; McNeel, Timothy; Dunn, Marsha; Graubard, Barry I

2008-01-01

Population-based estimates of biological family size can be useful for planning genetic studies, assessing how distributions of relatives affect disease associations with family history and estimating prevalence of potential family support. Mean family size per person is estimated from a population-based telephone survey (n = 1,019). After multivariate adjustment for demographic variables, older and non-White respondents reported greater mean numbers of total, first- and second-degree relatives. Females reported more total and first-degree relatives, while less educated respondents reported more second-degree relatives. Demographic differences in family size have implications for genetic research. Therefore, periodic collection of family structure data in representative populations would be useful. Copyright 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Estimating the Prevalence of Anxiety and Mood Disorders in an Adolescent General Population: An Evaluation of the GHQ12

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mann, Robert E.; Paglia-Boak, Angela; Adlaf, Edward M.; Beitchman, Joseph; Wolfe, David; Wekerle, Christine; Hamilton, Hayley A.; Rehm, Jurgen

2011-01-01

Anxiety and mood disorders (AMD) may be more common among adolescents than previously thought, and epidemiological research would benefit from an easily-administered measure of AMD. We assessed the ability of the GHQ12 to estimate the prevalence of AMD in a representative sample of Ontario adolescents. Data were based on self-administered…

Frequency of acromegaly in adults with diabetes or glucose intolerance and estimated prevalence in the general population.

PubMed

Rosario, Pedro Weslley

2011-09-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the frequency of acromegaly in adults with diabetes mellitus (DM) or glucose intolerance (GI) and to estimate its prevalence in the general population. A total of 2,270 patients with DM or GI and age from 20 to 70 years were studied. Patients with known pituitary disease and pregnant women were excluded. Serum IGF-1 was measured in all subjects and, if elevated, a new measurement was obtained together with the measurement of GH in the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). Patients with persistently elevated IGF-1 and inadequate suppression of GH were submitted to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Acromegaly was not suspected by the assistant physician in any of the patients. Six patients had persistently elevated IGF-1 and inadequate suppression of GH in the OGTT (without other conditions associated with GH or IGF-1 elevation). Pituitary adenoma was detected by MRI in three patients, and two subjects presented an acromegalic phenotype. Two patients were submitted to transsphenoidal surgery, with immunohistochemistry confirming immunoreactivity for GH. Another patient was treated with octreotide LAR which resulted in the normalization of IGF-1 and GH. Considering a prevalence of DM or GI of 20% in adults and the occurrence of these co-morbidities in 55% of patients with acromegaly, the frequency of 3/2,270 found in this study permits to estimate 480 cases/1,000,000 adults. The present results suggest that the prevalence of acromegaly is underestimated and further studies are needed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of biochemical screening in certain groups of patients.

Geographical differences in the prevalence of dyspepsia.

PubMed

Knill-Jones, R P

1991-01-01

The epidemiology of dyspepsia is reviewed with reference to the factors that affect prevalence, including definitions of the term, case mix, and selection. Period prevalence of dyspepsia in several different populations gives an average of 32%, of which 24% is accounted for by recognized ulcer disease. Dyspepsia appears to comprise about 70% of patients' gastrointestinal problems in a large prospective survey carried out in general practice in England, higher than some other estimates. The proportion of gastrointestinal disease in general practice consultations is examined, and while it accounts for about 5% of all consultations, it accounts for about 14% of patients consulting with a problem. There seems to have been a decline of 15% over 30 years. The difficulty of establishing the population prevalence of functional dyspepsia is emphasized, and several studies in which the proportion in general gastrointestinal outpatients has been measured are reviewed. Some data from a Glasgow study in which clinical histories have been recorded directly from patients by a computer system (GLADYS) show the prevalence of several common gastrointestinal symptoms in a clinic population and also of dysmotility-like dyspepsia. Such descriptive data should also be used for predicting diagnosis and for selecting patients to investigate.

A Lifetime Prevalence of Comorbidity Between Bipolar Affective Disorder and Anxiety Disorders: A Meta-analysis of 52 Interview-based Studies of Psychiatric Population

PubMed Central

Nabavi, Behrouz; Mitchell, Alex J.; Nutt, David

2015-01-01

Background Bipolar affective disorder has a high rate of comorbidity with a multitude of psychiatric disorders and medical conditions. Among all the potential comorbidities, co-existing anxiety disorders stand out due to their high prevalence. Aims To determine the lifetime prevalence of comorbid anxiety disorders in bipolar affective disorder under the care of psychiatric services through systematic review and meta-analysis. Method Random effects meta-analyses were used to calculate the lifetime prevalence of comorbid generalised anxiety disorder, panic disorder, social anxiety disorder, specific phobia, agoraphobia, obsessive compulsive disorder and posttraumatic stress disorder in bipolar affective disorder. Results 52 studies were included in the meta-analysis. The rate of lifetime comorbidity was as follows: panic disorder 16.8% (95% CI 13.7–20.1), generalised anxiety disorder 14.4% (95% CI 10.8–18.3), social anxiety disorder13.3% (95% CI 10.1–16.9), post-traumatic stress disorder 10.8% (95% CI 7.3–14.9), specific phobia 10.8% (95% CI 8.2–13.7), obsessive compulsive disorder 10.7% (95% CI 8.7–13.0) and agoraphobia 7.8% (95% CI 5.2–11.0). The lifetime prevalence of any anxiety disorders in bipolar disorder was 42.7%. Conclusions Our results suggest a high rate of lifetime concurrent anxiety disorders in bipolar disorder. The diagnostic issues at the interface are particularly difficult because of the substantial symptom overlap. The treatment of co-existing conditions has clinically remained challenging. PMID:26629535

Depressive affect in incident hemodialysis patients

PubMed Central

Larkin, John W; Wingard, Rebecca L; Jiao, Yue; Rosen, Sophia; Ma, Lin; Usvyat, Len A; Maddux, Franklin W

2018-01-01

Abstract Background The prevalence of depressive affect is not well defined in the incident hemodialysis (HD) population. We investigated the prevalence of and associated risk factors and hospitalization rates for depressive affect in incident HD patients. Methods We performed a prospective investigation using the Patient Health Questionnaire 2 (PHQ2) depressive affect assessment. From January to July of 2013 at 108 in-center clinics randomly selected across tertiles of baseline quality measures, we contacted 577 and 543 patients by telephone for depressive affect screening. PHQ2 test scores range from 0 to 6 (scores  ≥3 suggest the presence of depressive affect). The prevalence of depressive affect was measured at 1–30 and 121–150 days after initiating HD; depressive affect risk factors and hospitalization rates by depressive affect status at 1–30 days after starting HD were computed. Results Of 1120 contacted patients, 340 completed the PHQ2. In patients screened at 1–30 or 121–150 days after starting HD, depressive affect prevalence was 20.2% and 18.5%, respectively (unpaired t-test, P = 0.7). In 35 patients screened at both time points, there were trends for lower prevalence of depressive affect at the end of incident HD, with 20.0% and 5.7% of patients positive for depressive affect at 1–30 and 121–150 days, respectively (paired t-test, P = 0.1). Hospitalization rates were higher in patients with depressive affect during the first 30 days, exhibiting 1.5 more admissions (P < 0.001) and 10.5 additional hospital days (P = 0.008) per patient-year. Females were at higher risk for depressive affect at 1–30 days (P = 0.01). Conclusions The prevalence of depressive affect in HD patients is high throughout the incident period. Rates of hospital admissions and hospital days are increased in incident HD patients with depressive affect. PMID:29423211

Prevalence of dermatitis in the working population, United States, 2010 National Health Interview Survey.

PubMed

Luckhaupt, Sara E; Dahlhamer, James M; Ward, Brian W; Sussell, Aaron L; Sweeney, Marie H; Sestito, John P; Calvert, Geoffrey M

2013-06-01

Prevalence patterns of dermatitis among workers offer clues about risk factors and targets for prevention, but population-based estimates of the burden of dermatitis among US workers are lacking. Data from an occupational health supplement to the 2010 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS-OHS) were used to estimate the prevalence of dermatitis overall and by demographic characteristics and industry and occupation (I&O) of current/recent employment. Data were available for 27,157 adults, including 17,524 current/recent workers. The overall prevalence rate of dermatitis among current/recent workers was 9.8% (range among I&O groups: 5.5-15.4%), representing approximately 15.2 million workers with dermatitis. The highest prevalence rates were among I&O groups related to health care. Overall, 5.6% of dermatitis cases among workers (9.2% among healthcare workers) were attributed to work by health professionals. Dermatitis affected over 15 million US workers in 2010, and its prevalence varied by demographic characteristics and industry and occupation of employment. The prevalence rate of work-related dermatitis based on the NHIS-OHS was approximately 100-fold higher than incidence rates based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Survey of Occupational Illness and Injury. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Prevalence of epilepsy in rural Kansas.

PubMed

Ablah, Elizabeth; Hesdorffer, Dale C; Liu, Yi; Paschal, Angelia M; Hawley, Suzanne; Thurman, David; Hauser, W Allen

2014-05-01

To determine the prevalence of active epilepsy in two southeastern rural Kansas counties. Medical records were abstracted from the emergency rooms, out- and inpatient services and clinics of 9 hospitals, from 10 doctors' offices, and 1 nursing home in and surrounding the two counties. Letters were mailed from hospitals and doctors' offices to invite their potentially eligible patients to participate in an interview. Medical record information and the interview, when available, were used for the final determination of active epilepsy, seizure type, etiology, syndrome, age, and gender in consensus conferences. Prevalence of epilepsy was calculated, and capture-recapture methodology, which estimates prevalence based on what is known about the population, was employed to assess active epilepsy in the two counties. This study identified 404 individuals with active prevalent epilepsy who visited at least one of the 20 facilities during the observation period. The overall prevalence of active epilepsy was 7.2 per 1000. The seizure type for 71.3% of prevalent cases was unknown; among the 76 cases with known and classifiable seizure type, 55.3% had focal with secondary generalized seizures. Among the 222 cases with classifiable etiology, 53.1% were idiopathic/cryptogenic. About 75% (n=301) were captured at only one center, 72% (n=75) of the remaining 103 patients were captured at two centers, and 28 patients were identified at three or more centers. The capture-recapture assessment yielded an estimation of 982 prevalent patients. The overall estimated prevalence of epilepsy in the two Kansas counties using capture-recapture was 17 per 1000. The crude prevalence of epilepsy, using medical record survey methods, was similar to, but on the high end, of other total population prevalence studies in the United States. The capture-recapture assessment suggested that epilepsy prevalence might be considerably higher than the crude prevalence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All

Comparison of prevalence estimation of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis infection by sampling slaughtered cattle with macroscopic lesions vs. systematic sampling.

PubMed

Elze, J; Liebler-Tenorio, E; Ziller, M; Köhler, H

2013-07-01

The objective of this study was to identify the most reliable approach for prevalence estimation of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection in clinically healthy slaughtered cattle. Sampling of macroscopically suspect tissue was compared to systematic sampling. Specimens of ileum, jejunum, mesenteric and caecal lymph nodes were examined for MAP infection using bacterial microscopy, culture, histopathology and immunohistochemistry. MAP was found most frequently in caecal lymph nodes, but sampling more tissues optimized the detection rate. Examination by culture was most efficient while combination with histopathology increased the detection rate slightly. MAP was detected in 49/50 animals with macroscopic lesions representing 1.35% of the slaughtered cattle examined. Of 150 systematically sampled macroscopically non-suspect cows, 28.7% were infected with MAP. This indicates that the majority of MAP-positive cattle are slaughtered without evidence of macroscopic lesions and before clinical signs occur. For reliable prevalence estimation of MAP infection in slaughtered cattle, systematic random sampling is essential.

Estimating cancer incidence, prevalence, and the number of cancer patients treated with antitumor therapy in 2015 and 2020 -  analysis of the Czech National Cancer Registry.

PubMed

Dusek, L; Pavlík, T; Májek, O; Büchler, T; Muzik, J; Maluskova, D; Koptíková, J; Bortlicek, Z; Abrahámová, J

2015-01-01

Cancer burden in the Czech population ranks among the highest worldwide, which introduces a strong need for a prospective modelling of cancer incidence and prevalence rates. Moreover, a prediction of number of cancer patients requiring active antitumor therapy is also an important issue. This paper presents the stage-specific predictions of cancer incidence and prevalence, and the stage- and region-specific patients requiring active antitumor therapy for the most common cancer diagnoses in the Czech Republic for years 2015 and 2020. The stage-specific estimates are also presented with regard to the treatment phase as newly diagnosed patients, patients treated for non-terminal recurrence, and patients treated for terminal recurrence. Data of the Czech National Cancer Registry from 1977 to 2011 has been used for the analysis, omitting the records of patients diagnosed as death certificate only or at autopsy. In total, 1,777,775 incidences have been considered for the estimation using a statistical model utilizing solely the population-based cancer registry data. All estimates have been calculated with respect to the changing demographic structure of the Czech population and the clinical stage at diagnosis. Considering year 2011 as the baseline, we predict 89%, 15%, 31% and 32% increase in prostate, colorectal, female breast and lung cancer incidence, respectively, in 2020 resulting in 13,153, 9,368, 8,695, and 8,604 newly dia-g--nosed cancer patients in that year, respectively. Regarding cancer prevalence in 2020, the estimated increase is 140%, 40%, 51%, and 17% for prostate, colorectal, female breast and lung cancer, respectively, meaning that more than 100,000 prevalent female breast cancer patients as well as more than 100,000 prevalent prostate cancer patients are expected in the Czech Republic. The estimated numbers of patients requiring active antitumor therapy for prostate, colorectal, female breast and lung cancer in the Czech Republic in 2020 are 23,652, 14

Social, Emotional, and Academic Competence among Children Who Have Had Contact with Child Protective Services: Prevalence and Stability Estimates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jaffee, Sara R.; Gallop, Robert

2007-01-01

Objective: To estimate the prevalence and stability of social, emotional, and academic competence in a nationally representative sample of children involved with child protective services. Method: Children were assessed as part of the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being. Children (N = 2,065) ranged in age from 8 to 16 years and were…

Latitude is significantly associated with the prevalence of multiple sclerosis: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Simpson, Steve; Blizzard, Leigh; Otahal, Petr; Van der Mei, Ingrid; Taylor, Bruce

2011-10-01

There is a striking latitudinal gradient in multiple sclerosis (MS) prevalence, but exceptions in Mediterranean Europe and northern Scandinavia, and some systematic reviews, have suggested that the gradient may be an artefact. The authors sought to evaluate the association between MS prevalence and latitude by meta-regression. Studies were sourced from online databases, reference mining and author referral. Prevalence estimates were age-standardised to the 2009 European population. Analyses were carried out by means of random-effects meta-regression, weighted with the inverse of within-study variance. The authors included 650 prevalence estimates from 321 peer-reviewed studies; 239 were age-standardised, and 159 provided sex-specific data. The authors found a significant positive association (change in prevalence per degree-latitude) between age-standardised prevalence (1.04, p<0.001) and latitude that diminished at high latitudes. Adjustment for prevalence year strengthened the association with latitude (2.60, p<0.001). An inverse gradient in the Italian region reversed on adjustment for MS-associated HLA-DRB1 allele distributions. Adjustment for HLA-DRB1 allele frequencies did not appreciably alter the gradient in Europe. Adjustment for some potential sources of bias did not affect the observed associations. This, the most comprehensive review of MS prevalence to date, has confirmed a statistically significant positive association between MS prevalence and latitude globally. Exceptions to the gradient in the Italian region and northern Scandinavia are likely a result of genetic and behavioural-cultural variations. The persistence of a positive gradient in Europe after adjustment for HLA-DRB1 allele frequencies strongly supports a role for environmental factors which vary with latitude, the most prominent candidates being ultraviolet radiation (UVR)/vitamin D.

A Comparison of DSM-IV PDD and DSM-5 ASD Prevalence in an Epidemiologic Sample

PubMed Central

Kim, Young Shin; Fombonne, Eric; Koh, Yun-Joo; Kim, Soo-Jeong; Cheon, Keun-Ah; Leventhal, Bennett

2014-01-01

Objective Changes in autism diagnostic criteria found in DSM5 may affect Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) prevalence, research findings, diagnostic processes and eligibility for clinical and other services. Utilizing our published, total-population Korean prevalence data, we compute DSM5 ASD and Social Communication Disorder (SCD) prevalence and compare them to DSMIV Pervasive Developmental Disorder (PDD) prevalence estimates. We also describe individuals previously diagnosed with DSMIV PDD when diagnoses change with DSM-5 criteria. Method The target population was all 7-12-year-old children in a South Korean community (N= 55,266), those in regular and special education schools and a disability registry. We utilized the Autism Spectrum Screening Questionnaire for systematic, multi-informant screening. Parents of screen-positive children were offered comprehensive assessments using standardized diagnostic procedures, including the Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised and Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule. Best estimate clinical diagnoses were made using DSMIV PDD and DSM5 ASD and SCD criteria. Results DSM5 ASD estimated prevalence is 2.20% (CI: 1.77-3.64). Combined DSM-5 ASD and SCD prevalence is virtually same as DSM-IV PDD prevalence (2.64%). Most children with Autistic Disorder (99%), Asperger Disorder (92%), and PDD NOS (63%) met DSM-5 ASD criteria, whereas 1%, 8% and 32%, respectively, met SCD criteria. All remaining children (2% ) had other psychopathology, principally Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder and anxiety disorder. Conclusion Our findings suggest that most individuals with a prior DSMIV PDD meet DSM5 diagnostic criteria for ASD and SCD. PDD, ASD or SCD, extant diagnostic criteria identify a large, clinically meaningful group of individuals and families who require evidence-based services. PMID:24745950

Prevalence of Pressure Ulcer and Nutritional Factors Affecting Wound Closure Success in Thailand.

PubMed

Auiwattanakul, Supakrit; Ungpinitpong, Winai; Yutthakasemsunt, Surakrant; Buranapin, Supawan; Chittawatanarat, Kaweesak

2017-09-01

The authors aimed to estimate the prevalence of pressure ulcers and to explore the nutritional effects of the prognostic factors on successful pressure ulcer closure in a public tertiary care hospital in Thailand. The study was a retrospective cohort analysis of seven-year census (2008 - 2014) at Surin hospital in Thailand. There were 424 of total 240,826 patients aged over than 15 years admitted to surgery, orthopedics and medicine wards during the study period with documented pressure ulcers (ICD 10TM). We analyzed four hundred and ten patients after excluding 14 patients with non-pressure ulcers (due to burning/ diabetic/ ischemic neuropathic ulcers, and less than 24 hours of admission) and loss medical record. We selected independent factors from demographic data, nutritional factors, pressure ulcer characteristics, and management data. The outcome of interest was successful pressure ulcer closure. The analysis method was the semi-parametric Cox regression model and reported as Hazard Ratios (HR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI). The total hospital admission was 240,826 patients between 2008 - 2014. 410 patients were developing pressure ulcers, of these, 7% (28/410) success in ulcer closure, and 77% (314/410) failure in closure requiring for additional procedures (excisional debridement). The rest of patients (16%, 68/410) was non-operative care. The prevalence of pressure ulcers was 1.7 per 1,000 person-year. The multivariable model found that only the Nottingham Hospital Screening Tool (NS) score was a statistically significant nutritional variable, and additional subgroup analysis of two models of sepsis and spinal cord co-morbidities was also significant. Adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for NS score = 0.355 (95% CI: 0.187, 0.674), p=0.002), for sepsis = 0.312 (95% CI: 0.140, 0.695), p=0.004), and for spinal cord co-morbidity = 0.420 (95% CI: 0.184, 0.958), p=0.039). The annual prevalence was 1.7 per 1,000 persons. NS score was strongly associated with

Source of parental reports of child height and weight during phone interviews and influence on obesity prevalence estimates among children aged 3-17 years.

PubMed

Skinner, Asheley Cockrell; Miles, Donna; Perrin, Eliana M; Coyne-Beasley, Tamera; Ford, Carol

2013-01-01

We compared parental reports of children's height and weight when the values were estimated vs. parent-measured to determine how these reports influence the estimated prevalence of childhood obesity. In the 2007 and 2008 North Carolina Child Health Assessment and Monitoring Program surveys, parents reported height and weight for children aged 3-17 years. When parents reported the values were not measured (by doctor, school, or home), they were asked to measure their child and were later called back. We categorized body mass index status using standard CDC definitions, and we used Chi-square tests and the Stuart-Maxwell test of marginal homogeneity to examine reporting differences. About 80% (n=509) of the 638 parents who reported an unmeasured height and/or weight participated in a callback and provided updated measures. Children originally classified as obese were subsequently classified as obese (67%), overweight (13%), and healthy weight (19%). An estimated 28% of younger children (<10 years of age) vs. 6% of older children (aged ≥10 years) were reclassified on callback. Having parents who guessed the height and weight of their children and then reported updated values did not significantly change the overall population estimates of obesity. Our findings demonstrate that using parent-reported height and weight values may be sufficient to provide reasonable estimates of obesity prevalence. Systematically asking the source of height and weight information may help improve how it is applied to research of the prevalence of childhood obesity when gold-standard measurements are not available.

Comparison of Paper-and-Pencil versus Web Administration of the Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS): Risk Behavior Prevalence Estimates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eaton, Danice K.; Brener, Nancy D.; Kann, Laura; Denniston, Maxine M.; McManus, Tim; Kyle, Tonja M.; Roberts, Alice M.; Flint, Katherine H.; Ross, James G.

2010-01-01

The authors examined whether paper-and-pencil and Web surveys administered in the school setting yield equivalent risk behavior prevalence estimates. Data were from a methods study conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in spring 2008. Intact classes of 9th- or 10th-grade students were assigned randomly to complete a…

Estimation of Listeria monocytogenes and Escherichia coli O157:H7 prevalence and levels in naturally contaminated rocket and cucumber samples by deterministic and stochastic approaches.

PubMed

Hadjilouka, Agni; Mantzourani, Kyriaki-Sofia; Katsarou, Anastasia; Cavaiuolo, Marina; Ferrante, Antonio; Paramithiotis, Spiros; Mataragas, Marios; Drosinos, Eleftherios H

2015-02-01

The aims of the present study were to determine the prevalence and levels of Listeria monocytogenes and Escherichia coli O157:H7 in rocket and cucumber samples by deterministic (estimation of a single value) and stochastic (estimation of a range of values) approaches. In parallel, the chromogenic media commonly used for the recovery of these microorganisms were evaluated and compared, and the efficiency of an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA)-based protocol was validated. L. monocytogenes and E. coli O157:H7 were detected and enumerated using agar Listeria according to Ottaviani and Agosti plus RAPID' L. mono medium and Fluorocult plus sorbitol MacConkey medium with cefixime and tellurite in parallel, respectively. Identity was confirmed with biochemical and molecular tests and the ELISA. Performance indices of the media and the prevalence of both pathogens were estimated using Bayesian inference. In rocket, prevalence of both L. monocytogenes and E. coli O157:H7 was estimated at 7% (7 of 100 samples). In cucumber, prevalence was 6% (6 of 100 samples) and 3% (3 of 100 samples) for L. monocytogenes and E. coli O157:H7, respectively. The levels derived from the presence-absence data using Bayesian modeling were estimated at 0.12 CFU/25 g (0.06 to 0.20) and 0.09 CFU/25 g (0.04 to 0.170) for L. monocytogenes in rocket and cucumber samples, respectively. The corresponding values for E. coli O157:H7 were 0.59 CFU/25 g (0.43 to 0.78) and 1.78 CFU/25 g (1.38 to 2.24), respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the culture media differed for rocket and cucumber samples. The ELISA technique had a high level of cross-reactivity. Parallel testing with at least two culture media was required to achieve a reliable result for L. monocytogenes or E. coli O157:H7 prevalence in rocket and cucumber samples.

Single leg separation prevalence among explanted Björk-Shiley prosthetic heart valves.

PubMed

Blot, William J; Signorello, Lisa B; Cohen, Sarah S; Ibrahim, Michel A

2007-11-01

Björk-Shiley convexo-concave (BSCC) prosthetic heart valves are believed to have been implanted in over 86,000 patients worldwide. Limited data are available on the prevalence of single leg separations (SLS) of the valves' outlet struts, a potential precursor to complete valve fracture. Data maintained by the manufacturer, including results of examinations for SLS in explanted valves, were merged with available information on the characteristics of the valve. The prevalence of SLS in the examined valves was calculated according to valve angle, size, position, and study. Among 343 examined valves, the overall prevalence of SLS was 8.2%, but this varied significantly by valve size, being three-fold higher among 29+ mm valves than among smaller valves, with statistically non-significantly higher prevalences among mitral than aortic, and among 70 degrees than 60 degrees valves. By applying the size, position and angle-specific SLS prevalences to the worldwide valve distribution, it is estimated that SLS may be present in 6.8% (95% confidence limits 4.1-9.4%) of all BSCC valves. These findings suggest that SLS may affect between 820 and 1,880 of the almost 20,000 BSCC valves among surviving patients worldwide. Such estimates help frame the context for potential patient screenings, should imaging and acoustic techniques to detect SLS become available.

Prevalence of suicidal ideation in Chinese college students: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Zhan-Zhan; Li, Ya-Ming; Lei, Xian-Yang; Zhang, Dan; Liu, Li; Tang, Si-Yuan; Chen, Lizhang

2014-01-01

About 1 million people worldwide commit suicide each year, and college students with suicidal ideation are at high risk of suicide. The prevalence of suicidal ideation in college students has been estimated extensively, but quantitative syntheses of overall prevalence are scarce, especially in China. Accurate estimates of prevalence are important for making public policy. In this paper, we aimed to determine the prevalence of suicidal ideation in Chinese college students. Databases including PubMed, Web of Knowledge, Chinese Web of Knowledge, Wangfang (Chinese database) and Weipu (Chinese database) were systematically reviewed to identify articles published between 2004 to July 2013, in either English or Chinese, reporting prevalence estimates of suicidal ideation among Chinese college students. The strategy also included a secondary search of reference lists of records retrieved from databases. Then the prevalence estimates were summarized using a random effects model. The effects of moderator variables on the prevalence estimates were assessed using a meta-regression model. A total of 41 studies involving 160339 college students were identified, and the prevalence ranged from 1.24% to 26.00%. The overall pooled prevalence of suicidal ideation among Chinese college students was 10.72% (95%CI: 8.41% to 13.28%). We noted substantial heterogeneity in prevalence estimates. Subgroup analyses showed that prevalence of suicidal ideation in females is higher than in males. The prevalence of suicidal ideation in Chinese college students is relatively high, although the suicide rate is lower compared with the entire society, suggesting the need for local surveys to inform the development of health services for college students.

Challenges of Estimating the Annual Caseload of Severe Acute Malnutrition: The Case of Niger

PubMed Central

Hallarou, Mahaman; Gérard, Jean-Christophe; Donnen, Philippe; Macq, Jean

2016-01-01

Introduction Reliable prospective estimates of annual severe acute malnutrition (SAM) caseloads for treatment are needed for policy decisions and planning of quality services in the context of competing public health priorities and limited resources. This paper compares the reliability of SAM caseloads of children 6–59 months of age in Niger estimated from prevalence at the start of the year and counted from incidence at the end of the year. Methods Secondary data from two health districts for 2012 and the country overall for 2013 were used to calculate annual caseload of SAM. Prevalence and coverage were extracted from survey reports, and incidence from weekly surveillance systems. Results The prospective caseload estimate derived from prevalence and duration of illness underestimated the true burden. Similar incidence was derived from two weekly surveillance systems, but differed from that obtained from the monthly system. Incidence conversion factors were two to five times higher than recommended. Discussion Obtaining reliable prospective caseloads was challenging because prevalence is unsuitable for estimating incidence of SAM. Different SAM indicators identified different SAM populations, and duration of illness, expected contact coverage and population figures were inaccurate. The quality of primary data measurement, recording and reporting affected incidence numbers from surveillance. Coverage estimated in population surveys was rarely available, and coverage obtained by comparing admissions with prospective caseload estimates was unrealistic or impractical. Conclusions Caseload estimates derived from prevalence are unreliable and should be used with caution. Policy and service decisions that depend on these numbers may weaken performance of service delivery. Niger may improve SAM surveillance by simplifying and improving primary data collection and methods using innovative information technologies for single data entry at the first contact with the health

Prevalence and predictive factors of post-traumatic hypopituitarism.

PubMed

Klose, M; Juul, A; Poulsgaard, L; Kosteljanetz, M; Brennum, J; Feldt-Rasmussen, U

2007-08-01

To estimate the prevalence and predictive factors of hypopituitarism following traumatic brain injury (TBI). A cross-sectional cohort study. One hundred and four hospitalized TBI patients (26F/78M), median age 41 (range 18-64) years, body mass index (BMI) 25 (17-39) kg/m(2); severity: mild [Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score 13-15) n = 44, moderate (GCS 9-12) n = 20, severe (GCS < 9) n = 40]. Patients were evaluated 13 (10-27) months post-injury, with measurement of baseline (0800-1000 h) and post-stimulatory hormonal levels during an insulin tolerance test (ITT) (86%) or, if contraindicated, an arginine(arg)-GHRH test + Synacthen test (14%). Insufficiencies were confirmed by retesting. Hypopituitarism was found in 16 (15%) patients, affecting one axis in 10, two axes in four and more than two axes in two patients. The GH axis was most frequently affected (15%), followed by secondary hypoadrenalism (5%), hypogonadism (2%), hypothyroidism (2%) and diabetes insipidus (2%). The risk of pituitary insufficiency was increased in patients with severe TBI as opposed to mild TBI [odds ratio (OR) 10.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.1-48.4, P = 0.004], and in those patients with increased intracerebral pressure [OR 6.5, 95% CI 1.0-42.2, P = 0.03]. Patients with only one affected axis were all GH deficient; 60% (n = 6) of these were overweight or obese. The prevalence of hypopituitarism was estimated at 16%. Although high, this value was lower than previously reported, and may still be overestimated because of well-known confounding factors, such as obesity. Indicators of increased TBI severity were predictive of hypopituitarism, with a high negative predictive value. Neuroendocrine evaluation should therefore be considered in patients with severe TBI, and in particular in those with increased intracerebral pressure (ICP).

Variation of a test’s sensitivity and specificity with disease prevalence

PubMed Central

Leeflang, Mariska M.G.; Rutjes, Anne W.S.; Reitsma, Johannes B.; Hooft, Lotty; Bossuyt, Patrick M.M.

2013-01-01

Background: Anecdotal evidence suggests that the sensitivity and specificity of a diagnostic test may vary with disease prevalence. Our objective was to investigate the associations between disease prevalence and test sensitivity and specificity using studies of diagnostic accuracy. Methods: We used data from 23 meta-analyses, each of which included 10–39 studies (416 total). The median prevalence per review ranged from 1% to 77%. We evaluated the effects of prevalence on sensitivity and specificity using a bivariate random-effects model for each meta-analysis, with prevalence as a covariate. We estimated the overall effect of prevalence by pooling the effects using the inverse variance method. Results: Within a given review, a change in prevalence from the lowest to highest value resulted in a corresponding change in sensitivity or specificity from 0 to 40 percentage points. This effect was statistically significant (p < 0.05) for either sensitivity or specificity in 8 meta-analyses (35%). Overall, specificity tended to be lower with higher disease prevalence; there was no such systematic effect for sensitivity. Interpretation: The sensitivity and specificity of a test often vary with disease prevalence; this effect is likely to be the result of mechanisms, such as patient spectrum, that affect prevalence, sensitivity and specificity. Because it may be difficult to identify such mechanisms, clinicians should use prevalence as a guide when selecting studies that most closely match their situation. PMID:23798453

Prevalence of Dupuytren disease in The Netherlands.

PubMed

Lanting, Rosanne; van den Heuvel, Edwin R; Westerink, Bram; Werker, Paul M N

2013-08-01

Dupuytren disease is a fibroproliferative disease of palmar fascias of the hand. The prevalence of Dupuytren disease and the association with potential risk factors have been the subject of several studies, although there is a paucity of such data from The Netherlands. To study the prevalence of Dupuytren disease, the authors drew a random sample of 1360 individuals, stratified by age, from the northern part of The Netherlands. Of this sample, 763 individuals aged 50 to 89 years participated in this cross-sectional study. The authors examined both hands for signs of Dupuytren disease, and a questionnaire was conducted to identify potential risk factors. The effects of these risk factors were investigated using logistic regression analysis. Additional analyses were performed to develop a logistic prediction model for the prevalence of Dupuytren disease. The prevalence of Dupuytren disease was 22.1 percent. Nodules and cords were seen in 17.9 percent, and flexion contractures were present in 4.2 percent of the study population. Prevalence increased with age, from 4.9 percent in participants aged 50 to 55 years to 52.6 percent among those aged 76 to 80 years. Men were more often affected than women; 26.4 percent versus 18.6 percent, respectively (p=0.007). Other significant risk factors were previous hand injury, excessive alcohol consumption, familial occurrence of Dupuytren disease, and presence of Ledderhose disease. The results show a high prevalence of Dupuytren disease in The Netherlands, particularly the nodular form. Using the developed logistic prediction model, the prevalence of Dupuytren disease can be estimated, based on the presence of significant risk factors. Risk, III.

Minimum prevalence of chromosome 22q11 deletions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilson, D.I.; Cross, I.E.; Burn, J.

1994-09-01

Submicroscopic deletions from within chromosome 22q11 are associated with DiGeorge (DGS), velocardiofacial (VCFS) and conotruncal anomaly syndromes and isolated congenital heart defects. In 1993 our pediatric cardiologists clinically referred all children in whom a chromosome 22q11 deletion was suspected for fluorescent in situ hybridization studies using probes from the DGS critical region. 10 affected individuals have been identified to date from the children born in 1993 in the Northern Region served exclusively by our center. A further case, the subsequent pregnancy in one of these families was affected and terminated on the basis of a major heart malformation. In themore » years 1988-92, for which we have complete ascertainment, there were 1009 heart defects among 191,700 births (mean 202 per annum). Thus we estimate that chromosome 22q11 deletions were the cause of at least 5% of congenital heart disease. As not all children with chromosome 22q11 deletions have a heart defect, this gives an estimated minimum prevalence of 1/4000 live births.« less

The Prevalence of Migraine in Iran: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Farhadi, Zeynab; Alidoost, Saeideh; Behzadifar, Meysam; Mohammadibakhsh, Roghayeh; Khodadadi, Najmeh; Sepehrian, Razieh; Sohrabi, Rahim; Taheri Mirghaed, Masood; Salemi, Morteza; Ravaghi, Hamid; Behzadifar, Masoud

2016-10-01

Migraine is a major dilemma and problem which affects public health and results to reduced quality of life. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of migraine in Iran. A systematic search was conducted using Pub Med, Web of Science, Embase, Scopus, Ovid, Google Scholar, as well as Iranian databases including: MagIran, IranMedex and Scientific Information Databank, from 2000 to November, 2015. The Der-Simonian/Laird's random-effects model, with a 95% confidence interval was employed to estimate the overall pooled prevalence. Heterogeneity was investigated using subgroup analysis based on sample size and time of study. Thirty studies comprising 33,873 participants met the inclusion criteria for the analysis. The overall prevalence of migraine in Iran was 14% (95% CI, 12% to 17%), respectively. The overall prevalence was (8%; 95% CI 6% to 11%) according to the international classification of headache disorders (ICHD-1), (17%; 95% CI 13% to 21%) according to ICHD-2, and (18%; 95% CI 7% to 30%) according to the other questionnaire for migraine screener (ID Migraine), respectively. Meta-regression demonstrated that the prevalence of migraine increased by year of publication and decreased by sample size. The prevalence of migraine in Iran, which was estimated as 14%, was similar or even higher than that reported world-wide. Migraine can have impact on the economic productivity of any country; therefore it is necessary to educate people on the early detection and the discovery of an effective treatment of migraine. More thorough review of further studies in this field is recommended.

Preparation for horizontal or vertical dimensions affects the right-left prevalence effect.

PubMed

Nishimura, Akio; Yokosawa, Kazuhiko

2007-10-01

When stimulus and response simultaneously vary in both horizontal and vertical dimensions, the stimulus-response compatibility effect is often larger for the horizontal dimension. We investigated the role of preparation for each dimension in this right-left prevalence. In Experiment 1, tasks based on horizontal and vertical dimensions were mixed in random order, and the relevant dimension in each trial was cued with a variable cue-target stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA). A right-left prevalence effect was observed only when participants prepared for the upcoming task. Experiment 2 replicated the absence of the prevalence effect for the simultaneous presentation of cue and target using a fixed SOA of 0 msec. In Experiment 3, the right-left prevalence emerged with a 0-msec SOA when participants prepared for e achdimension basedon its frequency. These resultssuggest that participants' internal set can be greater for the horizontal dimension, leading to the right-left prevalence effect.

Children concurrently wasted and stunted: A meta‐analysis of prevalence data of children 6–59 months from 84 countries

PubMed Central

Khara, Tanya; Mwangome, Martha; Ngari, Moses

2017-01-01

Abstract Children can be stunted and wasted at the same time. Having both deficits greatly elevates risk of mortality. The analysis aimed to estimate the prevalence and burden of children aged 6–59 months concurrently wasted and stunted. Data from demographic and health survey and Multi‐indicator Cluster Surveys datasets from 84 countries were analysed. Overall prevalence for being wasted, stunted, and concurrently wasted and stunted among children 6 to 59 months was calculated. A pooled prevalence of concurrence was estimated and reported by gender, age, United Nations regions, and contextual categories. Burden was calculated using population figures from the global joint estimates database. The pooled prevalence of concurrence in the 84 countries was 3.0%, 95% CI [2.97, 3.06], ranging from 0% to 8.0%. Nine countries reported a concurrence prevalence greater than 5%. The estimated burden was 5,963,940 children. Prevalence of concurrence was highest in the 12‐ to 24‐month age group 4.2%, 95% CI [4.1, 4.3], and was significantly higher among boys 3.54%, 95% CI [3.47, 3.61], compared to girls; 2.46%, 95% CI [2.41, 2.52]. Fragile and conflict‐affected states reported significantly higher concurrence 3.6%, 95% CI [3.5, 3.6], than those defined as stable 2.24%, 95% CI [2.18, 2.30]. This analysis represents the first multiple country estimation of the prevalence and burden of children concurrently wasted and stunted. Given the high risk of mortality associated with concurrence, the findings indicate a need to report on this condition as well as investigate whether these children are being reached through existing programmes. PMID:28944990