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Sample records for affect prevalence estimates

  1. G6PD Deficiency Prevalence and Estimates of Affected Populations in Malaria Endemic Countries: A Geostatistical Model-Based Map

    PubMed Central

    Howes, Rosalind E.; Piel, Frédéric B.; Patil, Anand P.; Nyangiri, Oscar A.; Gething, Peter W.; Dewi, Mewahyu; Hogg, Mariana M.; Battle, Katherine E.; Padilla, Carmencita D.; Baird, J. Kevin; Hay, Simon I.

    2012-01-01

    Background Primaquine is a key drug for malaria elimination. In addition to being the only drug active against the dormant relapsing forms of Plasmodium vivax, primaquine is the sole effective treatment of infectious P. falciparum gametocytes, and may interrupt transmission and help contain the spread of artemisinin resistance. However, primaquine can trigger haemolysis in patients with a deficiency in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PDd). Poor information is available about the distribution of individuals at risk of primaquine-induced haemolysis. We present a continuous evidence-based prevalence map of G6PDd and estimates of affected populations, together with a national index of relative haemolytic risk. Methods and Findings Representative community surveys of phenotypic G6PDd prevalence were identified for 1,734 spatially unique sites. These surveys formed the evidence-base for a Bayesian geostatistical model adapted to the gene's X-linked inheritance, which predicted a G6PDd allele frequency map across malaria endemic countries (MECs) and generated population-weighted estimates of affected populations. Highest median prevalence (peaking at 32.5%) was predicted across sub-Saharan Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Although G6PDd prevalence was generally lower across central and southeast Asia, rarely exceeding 20%, the majority of G6PDd individuals (67.5% median estimate) were from Asian countries. We estimated a G6PDd allele frequency of 8.0% (interquartile range: 7.4–8.8) across MECs, and 5.3% (4.4–6.7) within malaria-eliminating countries. The reliability of the map is contingent on the underlying data informing the model; population heterogeneity can only be represented by the available surveys, and important weaknesses exist in the map across data-sparse regions. Uncertainty metrics are used to quantify some aspects of these limitations in the map. Finally, we assembled a database of G6PDd variant occurrences to inform a national-level index of

  2. Micronutrient Deficiencies Are Common in 6- to 8-Year-Old Children of Rural Nepal, with Prevalence Estimates Modestly Affected by Inflammation12

    PubMed Central

    Schulze, Kerry J.; Christian, Parul; Wu, Lee S.-F.; Arguello, Margia; Cui, Hongjie; Nanayakkara-Bind, Ashika; Stewart, Christine P.; Khatry, Subarna K.; LeClerq, Steven; West, Keith P.

    2014-01-01

    Subclinical micronutrient deficiencies remain a hidden aspect of malnutrition for which comprehensive data are lacking in school-aged children. We assessed the micronutrient status of Nepalese children, aged 6 to 8 y, born to mothers who participated in a community-based antenatal micronutrient supplementation trial from 1999 to 2001. Of 3305 participants, plasma indicators were assessed in a random sample of 1000 children. Results revealed deficiencies of vitamins A (retinol <0.70 μmol/L, 8.5%), D (25-hydroxyvitamin D <50 nmol/L, 17.2%), E (α-tocopherol <9.3 μmol/L, 17.9%), K (decarboxy prothombin >2 μg/L, 20%), B-12 (cobalamin <150 pmol/L, 18.1%), B-6 [pyridoxal-5′-phosphate (PLP) <20 nmol/L, 43.1%], and β-carotene (41.5% <0.09 μmol/L), with little folate deficiency (6.2% <13.6 nmol/L). Deficiencies of iron [ferritin <15 μg/L, 10.7%; transferrin receptor (TfR) >8.3 mg/L, 40.1%; TfR:ferritin >500 μg/μg, 14.3%], iodine (thyroglobulin >40 μg/L, 11.4%), and selenium (plasma selenium <0.89 μmol/L, 59.0%) were observed, whereas copper deficiency was nearly absent (plasma copper <11.8 μmol/L, 0.7%). Hemoglobin was not assessed. Among all children, 91.7% experienced at least 1 micronutrient deficiency, and 64.7% experienced multiple deficiencies. Inflammation (α-1 acid glycoprotein >1 g/L, C-reactive protein >5 mg/L, or both) was present in 31.6% of children, affecting the prevalence of deficiency as assessed by retinol, β-carotene, PLP, ferritin, TfR, selenium, copper, or having any or multiple deficiencies. For any nutrient, population deficiency prevalence estimates were altered by ≤5.4% by the presence of inflammation, suggesting that the majority of deficiencies exist regardless of inflammation. Multiple micronutrient deficiencies coexist in school-aged children in rural Nepal, meriting more comprehensive strategies for their assessment and prevention. PMID:24744314

  3. Micronutrient deficiencies are common in 6- to 8-year-old children of rural Nepal, with prevalence estimates modestly affected by inflammation.

    PubMed

    Schulze, Kerry J; Christian, Parul; Wu, Lee S F; Arguello, Margia; Cui, Hongjie; Nanayakkara-Bind, Ashika; Stewart, Christine P; Khatry, Subarna K; LeClerq, Steven; West, Keith P

    2014-06-01

    Subclinical micronutrient deficiencies remain a hidden aspect of malnutrition for which comprehensive data are lacking in school-aged children. We assessed the micronutrient status of Nepalese children, aged 6 to 8 y, born to mothers who participated in a community-based antenatal micronutrient supplementation trial from 1999 to 2001. Of 3305 participants, plasma indicators were assessed in a random sample of 1000 children. Results revealed deficiencies of vitamins A (retinol <0.70 μmol/L, 8.5%), D (25-hydroxyvitamin D <50 nmol/L, 17.2%), E (α-tocopherol <9.3 μmol/L, 17.9%), K (decarboxy prothombin >2 μg/L, 20%), B-12 (cobalamin <150 pmol/L, 18.1%), B-6 [pyridoxal-5'-phosphate (PLP) <20 nmol/L, 43.1%], and β-carotene (41.5% <0.09 μmol/L), with little folate deficiency (6.2% <13.6 nmol/L). Deficiencies of iron [ferritin <15 μg/L, 10.7%; transferrin receptor (TfR) >8.3 mg/L, 40.1%; TfR:ferritin >500 μg/μg, 14.3%], iodine (thyroglobulin >40 μg/L, 11.4%), and selenium (plasma selenium <0.89 μmol/L, 59.0%) were observed, whereas copper deficiency was nearly absent (plasma copper <11.8 μmol/L, 0.7%). Hemoglobin was not assessed. Among all children, 91.7% experienced at least 1 micronutrient deficiency, and 64.7% experienced multiple deficiencies. Inflammation (α-1 acid glycoprotein >1 g/L, C-reactive protein >5 mg/L, or both) was present in 31.6% of children, affecting the prevalence of deficiency as assessed by retinol, β-carotene, PLP, ferritin, TfR, selenium, copper, or having any or multiple deficiencies. For any nutrient, population deficiency prevalence estimates were altered by ≤5.4% by the presence of inflammation, suggesting that the majority of deficiencies exist regardless of inflammation. Multiple micronutrient deficiencies coexist in school-aged children in rural Nepal, meriting more comprehensive strategies for their assessment and prevention. PMID:24744314

  4. Bayesian melding for estimating uncertainty in national HIV prevalence estimates

    PubMed Central

    Alkema, L; Raftery, A E; Brown, T

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To construct confidence intervals for HIV prevalence in countries with generalised epidemics. Methods: In the Bayesian melding approach, a sample of country-specific epidemic curves describing HIV prevalence over time is derived based on time series of antenatal clinic prevalence data and general information on the parameters that describe the HIV epidemic. The prevalence trends at antenatal clinics are calibrated to population-based HIV prevalence estimates from national surveys. For countries without population based estimates, a general calibration method is developed. Based on the sample of calibrated epidemic curves, we derive annual 95% confidence intervals for HIV prevalence. The curve that best represents the data at antenatal clinics and population-based surveys, as well as general information about the epidemic, is chosen to represent the best estimates and predictions. Results: We present results for urban areas in Haiti and Namibia to illustrate the estimates and confidence intervals that are derived with the methodology. PMID:18647860

  5. Prevalence Estimates of Combat-Related PTSD: A Critical Review

    PubMed Central

    Richardson, Lisa K.; Frueh, B. Christopher; Acierno, Ronald

    2010-01-01

    Objective To provide a critical review of prevalence estimates of combat-related PTSD among military personnel and veterans, and of the relevant factors that may account for the variability of estimates within and across cohorts, including methodological and conceptual factors accounting for differences in prevalence rates across nations, conflicts/wars, and studies. Method We examined MEDLINE and PsycINFO databases for literature on combat-related PTSD. The following terms were used independently and in combinations in this search: PTSD, combat, veterans, military, epidemiology, prevalence. Results The point prevalence of combat-related PTSD in US military veterans since the Vietnam War ranges from about 2 – 17%. Studies of recent conflicts suggest that combat-related PTSD afflicts between 4 – 17% of US Iraq War veterans, but only 3 – 6% of returning UK Iraq War veterans. Thus, the prevalence range is narrower and tends to have a lower ceiling among combat veterans of non-US Western nations. Variability in prevalence is likely due to differences in sampling strategies; measurement strategies; inclusion and measurement of the DSM-IV clinically significant impairment criterion; timing and latency of assessment and potential for recall bias; and combat experiences. Prevalence rates are also likely affected by issues related to PTSD course, chronicity, and comorbidity; symptom overlap with other psychiatric disorders; and sociopolitical and cultural factors that may vary over time and by nation. Conclusions The disorder represents a significant and costly illness to veterans, their families, and society as a whole. However, further carefully conceptualized research is needed to advance our understanding of disorder prevalence, as well as associated information on course, phenomenology, protective factors, treatment, and economic costs. PMID:20073563

  6. The oculoauriculovertebral spectrum: Refining the estimate of birth prevalence

    PubMed Central

    Gabbett, Michael T.

    2012-01-01

    The oculoauriculovertebral spectrum (OAVS) is a well-described pattern of congenital malformations primarily characterized by hemifacial microsomia and/or auricular dysplasia. However, the birth prevalence of OAVS is poorly characterized. Figures ranging from 1 in 150,000 through to 1 in 5,600 can be found in the literature – the latter figure being the most frequently quoted. This study aims to evaluate the reasons behind such discrepant figures and to refine the estimated birth prevalence of OAVS. Published reports on the incidence and prevalence of OAVS were systematically sought after. This evidence was critically reviewed. Data from appropriate studies was amalgamated to refine the estimate of the birth prevalence for OAVS. Two main reasons were identified why birth prevalence figures for OAVS are so highly discrepant: differing methods of case ascertainment and the lack of a formal definition for OAVS. This study refines the estimate of birth prevalence for OAVS to between 1 in 40,000 and 1 in 30,000. This number needs to be confirmed in a large well-designed prospective study using a formally agreed-upon definition for OAVS.

  7. Estimating HIV Prevalence in Zimbabwe Using Population-Based Survey Data

    PubMed Central

    Chinomona, Amos; Mwambi, Henry Godwell

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of HIV prevalence computed using data obtained from sampling a subgroup of the national population may lack the representativeness of all the relevant domains of the population. These estimates are often computed on the assumption that HIV prevalence is uniform across all domains of the population. Use of appropriate statistical methods together with population-based survey data can enhance better estimation of national and subgroup level HIV prevalence and can provide improved explanations of the variation in HIV prevalence across different domains of the population. In this study we computed design-consistent estimates of HIV prevalence, and their respective 95% confidence intervals at both the national and subgroup levels. In addition, we provided a multivariable survey logistic regression model from a generalized linear modelling perspective for explaining the variation in HIV prevalence using demographic, socio-economic, socio-cultural and behavioural factors. Essentially, this study borrows from the proximate determinants conceptual framework which provides guiding principles upon which socio-economic and socio-cultural variables affect HIV prevalence through biological behavioural factors. We utilize the 2010–11 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (2010–11 ZDHS) data (which are population based) to estimate HIV prevalence in different categories of the population and for constructing the logistic regression model. It was established that HIV prevalence varies greatly with age, gender, marital status, place of residence, literacy level, belief on whether condom use can reduce the risk of contracting HIV and level of recent sexual activity whereas there was no marked variation in HIV prevalence with social status (measured using a wealth index), method of contraceptive and an individual’s level of education. PMID:26624280

  8. Estimating HIV Prevalence in Zimbabwe Using Population-Based Survey Data.

    PubMed

    Chinomona, Amos; Mwambi, Henry Godwell

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of HIV prevalence computed using data obtained from sampling a subgroup of the national population may lack the representativeness of all the relevant domains of the population. These estimates are often computed on the assumption that HIV prevalence is uniform across all domains of the population. Use of appropriate statistical methods together with population-based survey data can enhance better estimation of national and subgroup level HIV prevalence and can provide improved explanations of the variation in HIV prevalence across different domains of the population. In this study we computed design-consistent estimates of HIV prevalence, and their respective 95% confidence intervals at both the national and subgroup levels. In addition, we provided a multivariable survey logistic regression model from a generalized linear modelling perspective for explaining the variation in HIV prevalence using demographic, socio-economic, socio-cultural and behavioural factors. Essentially, this study borrows from the proximate determinants conceptual framework which provides guiding principles upon which socio-economic and socio-cultural variables affect HIV prevalence through biological behavioural factors. We utilize the 2010-11 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (2010-11 ZDHS) data (which are population based) to estimate HIV prevalence in different categories of the population and for constructing the logistic regression model. It was established that HIV prevalence varies greatly with age, gender, marital status, place of residence, literacy level, belief on whether condom use can reduce the risk of contracting HIV and level of recent sexual activity whereas there was no marked variation in HIV prevalence with social status (measured using a wealth index), method of contraceptive and an individual's level of education. PMID:26624280

  9. Predicting Individual Affect of Health Interventions to Reduce HPV Prevalence

    SciTech Connect

    Corley, Courtney D.; Mihalcea, Rada; Mikler, Armin R.; Sanfilippo, Antonio P.

    2011-04-01

    Recently, human papilloma virus has been implicated to cause several throat and oral cancers and hpv is established to cause most cervical cancers. A human papilloma virus vaccine has been proven successful to reduce infection incidence in FDA clinical trials and it is currently available in the United States. Current intervention policy targets adolescent females for vaccination; however, the expansion of suggested guidelines may extend to other age groups and males as well. This research takes a first step towards automatically predicting personal beliefs, regarding health intervention, on the spread of disease. Using linguistic or statistical approaches, sentiment analysis determines a texts affective content. Self-reported HPV vaccination beliefs published in web and social media are analyzed for affect polarity and leveraged as knowledge inputs to epidemic models. With this in mind, we have developed a discrete-time model to facilitate predicting impact on the reduction of HPV prevalence due to arbitrary age and gender targeted vaccination schemes.

  10. The Prevalence of Age-Related Eye Diseases and Visual Impairment in Aging: Current Estimates

    PubMed Central

    Klein, Ronald; Klein, Barbara E. K.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose. To examine prevalence of five age-related eye conditions (age-related cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, diabetic retinopathy [DR], and visual impairment) in the United States. Methods. Review of published scientific articles and unpublished research findings. Results. Cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, DR, and visual impairment prevalences are high in four different studies of these conditions, especially in people over 75 years of age. There are disparities among racial/ethnic groups with higher age-specific prevalence of DR, open-angle glaucoma, and visual impairment in Hispanics and blacks compared with whites, higher prevalence of age-related cataract in whites compared with blacks, and higher prevalence of late AMD in whites compared with Hispanics and blacks. The estimates are based on old data and do not reflect recent changes in the distribution of age and race/ethnicity in the United States population. There are no epidemiologic estimates of prevalence for many visually-impairing conditions. Conclusions. Ongoing prevalence surveys designed to provide reliable estimates of visual impairment, AMD, age-related cataract, open-angle glaucoma, and DR are needed. It is important to collect objective data on these and other conditions that affect vision and quality of life in order to plan for health care needs and identify areas for further research. PMID:24335069

  11. Estimating Neospora caninum prevalence in wildlife populations using Bayesian inference.

    PubMed

    Moreno-Torres, Karla; Wolfe, Barbara; Saville, William; Garabed, Rebecca

    2016-04-01

    Prevalence of disease in wildlife populations, which is necessary for developing disease models and conducting epidemiologic analyses, is often understudied. Laboratory tests used to screen for diseases in wildlife populations often are validated only for domestic animals. Consequently, the use of these tests for wildlife populations may lead to inaccurate estimates of disease prevalence. We demonstrate the use of Bayesian latent class analysis (LCA) in determining the specificity and sensitivity of a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA; VMRD (®), Inc.) serologic test used to identify exposure to Neospora caninum (hereafter N. caninum) in three wildlife populations in southeastern Ohio, USA. True prevalence of N. caninum exposure in these populations was estimated to range from 0.1% to 3.1% in American bison (Bison bison), 51.0% to 53.8% in Père David's deer (Elaphurus davidianus), and 40.0% to 45.9% in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). The accuracy of the cELISA in American bison and Père David's deer was estimated to be close to the 96% sensitivity and 99% specificity reported by the manufacturer. Sensitivity in white-tailed deer, however, ranged from 78.9% to 99.9%. Apparent prevalence of N. caninum from the test results is not equal to the true prevalence in white-tailed deer and Père David's deer populations. Even when these species inhabit the same community, the true prevalence in the two deer populations differed from the true prevalence in the American bison population. Variances in prevalence for some species suggest differences in the epidemiology of N. caninum for these colocated populations. Bayesian LCA methods could be used as in this example to overcome some of the constraints on validating tests in wildlife species. The ability to accurately evaluate disease status and prevalence in a population improves our understanding of the epidemiology of multihost pathogen systems at the community level. PMID:27099713

  12. Estimation of the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder in South Korea, revisited.

    PubMed

    Pantelis, Peter C; Kennedy, Daniel P

    2016-07-01

    Two-phase designs in epidemiological studies of autism prevalence introduce methodological complications that can severely limit the precision of resulting estimates. If the assumptions used to derive the prevalence estimate are invalid or if the uncertainty surrounding these assumptions is not properly accounted for in the statistical inference procedure, then the point estimate may be inaccurate and the confidence interval may not be a true reflection of the precision of the estimate. We examine these potential pitfalls in the context of a recent high-profile finding by Kim et al. (2011, Prevalence of autism spectrum disorders in a total population sample. American Journal of Psychiatry 168: 904-912), who estimated that autism spectrum disorder affects 2.64% of children in a South Korean community. We reconstructed the study's methodology and used Monte Carlo simulations to analyze whether their point estimate and 95% confidence interval (1.91%, 3.37%) were reasonable, given what was known about their screening instrument and sample. We find the original point estimate to be highly assumption-dependent, and after accounting for sources of uncertainty unaccounted for in the original article, we demonstrate that a more reasonable confidence interval would be approximately twice as large as originally reported. We argue that future studies should give serious consideration to the additional sources of uncertainty introduced by a two-phase design, which may easily outstrip any expected gains in efficiency. PMID:26122467

  13. How could preventive therapy affect the prevalence of drug resistance? Causes and consequences.

    PubMed

    Kunkel, Amber; Colijn, Caroline; Lipsitch, Marc; Cohen, Ted

    2015-06-01

    Various forms of preventive and prophylactic antimicrobial therapies have been proposed to combat HIV (e.g. pre-exposure prophylaxis), tuberculosis (e.g. isoniazid preventive therapy) and malaria (e.g. intermittent preventive treatment). However, the potential population-level effects of preventative therapy (PT) on the prevalence of drug resistance are not well understood. PT can directly affect the rate at which resistance is acquired among those receiving PT. It can also indirectly affect resistance by altering the rate at which resistance is acquired through treatment for active disease and by modifying the level of competition between transmission of drug-resistant and drug-sensitive pathogens. We propose a general mathematical model to explore the ways in which PT can affect the long-term prevalence of drug resistance. Depending on the relative contributions of these three mechanisms, we find that increasing the level of coverage of PT may result in increases, decreases or non-monotonic changes in the overall prevalence of drug resistance. These results demonstrate the complexity of the relationship between PT and drug resistance in the population. Care should be taken when predicting population-level changes in drug resistance from small pilot studies of PT or estimates based solely on its direct effects. PMID:25918446

  14. [The prevalence of Enterobius vermicularis in schoolchildren and affecting factors].

    PubMed

    Giray, Hatice; Keskinoğlu, Pembe

    2006-01-01

    This study was carried out in order to determine the factors affecting the presence of Enterobius vermicularis in schoolchildren. This investigation was a cross-sectional and analytic study. The dependent variable was the presence of parasites and the independent variables were the characteristics of the children, families, houses, toilets and drinking water. A stool specimen was taken in the morning using the cellophane tape method, and examined the same day by microscopy. Data were evaluated using the Chi square test and logistic regression analysis and p < 0.05 was accepted as being statistically significant. There were 529 students in the kindergarten and 1-5 classes in the Isikkent and Sait Guzelcan primary schools in the region of the Isikkent Health Center in Izmir. However specimens could only be obtained from 477 (90.2%) students. The mean age of children was 8.6+/-2.0 years. The number of residents in their homes averaged 5.4+/-2.0, the average number of children in the homes was 3.2+/-1.9 and 290 (60.8%) houses were single dwellings. The source for piped water in 404 houses (84.7%) was the city network, and there were modern sanitary facilities (toilets) in 377 (70.6%) houses. Enterobius vermicularis was found in 209 (43.8%) children. According to logistic regression analyses, the rate of Enterobius vermicularis was found to be 3.05 times higher in students from the Sait Guzelcan primary school, if there were more than 6 residents in the home 2.05 times even higher and 2.02 times still higher if there were no sanitary facilities at his/her home. When there was a history of parasites in the family, the risk was significantly decreased. The prevalence of Enterobius vermicularis in schoolchildren was higher in slum areas, in crowded homes and in those that lacked modern sanitary facilities. PMID:17124657

  15. Gambling disorder: estimated prevalence rates and risk factors in Macao.

    PubMed

    Wu, Anise M S; Lai, Mark H C; Tong, Kwok-Kit

    2014-12-01

    An excessive, problematic gambling pattern has been regarded as a mental disorder in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM) for more than 3 decades (American Psychiatric Association [APA], 1980). In this study, its latest prevalence in Macao (one of very few cities with legalized gambling in China and the Far East) was estimated with 2 major changes in the diagnostic criteria, suggested by the 5th edition of DSM (APA, 2013): (a) removing the "Illegal Act" criterion, and (b) lowering the threshold for diagnosis. A random, representative sample of 1,018 Macao residents was surveyed with a phone poll design in January 2013. After the 2 changes were adopted, the present study showed that the estimated prevalence rate of gambling disorder was 2.1% of the Macao adult population. Moreover, the present findings also provided empirical support to the application of these 2 recommended changes when assessing symptoms of gambling disorder among Chinese community adults. Personal risk factors of gambling disorder, namely being male, having low education, a preference for casino gambling, as well as high materialism, were identified. PMID:25134026

  16. Estimating the Global Prevalence of Inadequate Zinc Intake from National Food Balance Sheets: Effects of Methodological Assumptions

    PubMed Central

    Wessells, K. Ryan; Singh, Gitanjali M.; Brown, Kenneth H.

    2012-01-01

    Background The prevalence of inadequate zinc intake in a population can be estimated by comparing the zinc content of the food supply with the population’s theoretical requirement for zinc. However, assumptions regarding the nutrient composition of foods, zinc requirements, and zinc absorption may affect prevalence estimates. These analyses were conducted to: (1) evaluate the effect of varying methodological assumptions on country-specific estimates of the prevalence of dietary zinc inadequacy and (2) generate a model considered to provide the best estimates. Methodology and Principal Findings National food balance data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Zinc and phytate contents of these foods were estimated from three nutrient composition databases. Zinc absorption was predicted using a mathematical model (Miller equation). Theoretical mean daily per capita physiological and dietary requirements for zinc were calculated using recommendations from the Food and Nutrition Board of the Institute of Medicine and the International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group. The estimated global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake varied between 12–66%, depending on which methodological assumptions were applied. However, country-specific rank order of the estimated prevalence of inadequate intake was conserved across all models (r = 0.57–0.99, P<0.01). A “best-estimate” model, comprised of zinc and phytate data from a composite nutrient database and IZiNCG physiological requirements for absorbed zinc, estimated the global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake to be 17.3%. Conclusions and Significance Given the multiple sources of uncertainty in this method, caution must be taken in the interpretation of the estimated prevalence figures. However, the results of all models indicate that inadequate zinc intake may be fairly common globally. Inferences regarding the relative likelihood of zinc deficiency as a public health

  17. Prevalence of HCV and HIV infections in 2005-Earthquake-affected areas of Pakistan

    PubMed Central

    Khan, Saeed; Rai, Mohammad A; Khan, Adnan; Farooqui, Amber; Kazmi, Shahana U; Ali, Syed H

    2008-01-01

    Background On October 8, 2005, an earthquake of magnitude 7.6 hit the Northern parts of Pakistan. In the post-earthquake scenario, overcrowding, improper sewage disposal, contamination of food and drinking water, hasty surgical procedures, and unscreened blood transfusions to earthquake victims most likely promotes the spread of infections already prevalent in the area. Objective The objective of the study reported here was to determine the prevalence of Human Immunodeficiency and Hepatitis C viruses (respectively, HIV and HCV) in the earthquake-affected communities of Pakistan. The samples were analyzed 2 months and then again 11 months after the earthquake to estimate the burden of HIV and HCV in these areas, and to determine any rise in the prevalence of these viral infections as a result of the earthquake. Methods Blood samples were initially collected during December, 2005 to March 2006, from 245 inhabitants of the earthquake-affected areas. These samples were screened for HCV and HIV, using immunochromatography and Enzyme-Linked Immuno-Sorbent Assay (ELISA). Results Out of 245 samples tested, 8 (3.26%) were found positive for HCV, and 0 (0.0%) for HIV, indicating the existence of HCV infection in the earthquake-stricken areas. The same methods were used to analyze the samples collected in the second round of screening in the same area, in September, 2006 – 11 months after the earthquake. This time 290 blood samples were collected, out of which 16 (5.51%) samples were positive for HCV, and 0 for HIV. Conclusion A slightly higher prevalence of HCV was recorded 11 months after the earthquake; this increase, however, was not statistically significant. None of the study participants was found HIV-infected. PMID:18954443

  18. An estimate of the prevalence of developmental phonagnosia.

    PubMed

    Shilowich, Bryan E; Biederman, Irving

    2016-08-01

    A web-based survey estimated the distribution of voice recognition abilities with a focus on determining the prevalence of developmental phonagnosia, the inability to identify a familiar person based on their voice. Participants matched clips of 50 celebrity voices to 1-4 named headshots of celebrities whose voices they had previously rated for familiarity. Given a strong correlation between rated familiarity and recognition performance, a residual was calculated based on the average familiarity rating on each trial, which thus constituted each respondent's voice recognition ability that could not be accounted for by familiarity. 3.2% of the respondents (23 of 730 participants) had residual recognition scores 2.28 SDs below the mean (whereas 8 or 1.1% would have been expected from a normal distribution). They also judged whether they could imagine the voice of five familiar celebrities. Individuals who had difficulty in imagining voices were also generally below average in their accuracy of recognition. PMID:27376464

  19. Estimating the prevalence of inbreeding from incomplete pedigrees.

    PubMed

    Marshall, T C; Coltman, D W; Pemberton, J M; Slate, J; Spalton, J A; Guinness, F E; Smith, J A; Pilkington, J G; Clutton-Brock, T H

    2002-08-01

    A previous review of inbreeding in natural populations suggested that close inbreeding (inbreeding coefficient f = 0.25) is generally rare in wild birds and mammals. However, the review did not assess rates of moderate inbreeding (f = 0.125), which may make a rather larger contribution to overall inbreeding in a population. Furthermore, previous studies may have underestimated the prevalence of inbreeding in wild populations with incomplete pedigrees. By categorizing inbreeding events by the relationship of the parental pair, we suggest a simple method for estimating rates of close and moderate inbreeding from incomplete pedigree data. We applied this method to three wild populations of ruminants: red deer on Rum, Scotland, Soay sheep on Hirta, Scotland and reintroduced Arabian oryx on the Jiddat-al-Harasis, Oman. Although paternal half-sib pairs were the most common category of inbreeding in all three populations, there was considerable variation among populations in the frequencies of the various categories of inbreeding. This variation may be largely explained by differences in population size and dynamics, in maternal and paternal sibship size and in the overlap of reproductive lifespan of consecutive generations. Close and moderate inbreeding appear to be a routine part of breeding behaviour in these ruminant populations. PMID:12184822

  20. Estimated prevalence of antenatal depression in the US population.

    PubMed

    Ashley, June M; Harper, Bridgette D; Arms-Chavez, Clarissa J; LoBello, Steven G

    2016-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the prevalence of minor and major depression among pregnant women in the USA. Also, we compare prevalence of depression among pregnant and non-pregnant women while controlling for relevant covariates. A population-representative sample of pregnant women (n = 3010) surveyed for the 2006 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System was compared to a sample of women who were not pregnant (n = 68,620). Binary logistic regression was used to determine prevalence ratios of depression for pregnant and non-pregnant women while controlling for the effects of age, race, annual income, employment status, educational level, marital status, general health, and availability of emotional support. Depression was measured by the Patient Health Questionnaire-8 (PHQ-8). The prevalence of major depression was no greater among pregnant women (6.1 %) compared to non-pregnant women (7 %; adjusted prevalence ratio (PR) = 1.1, 95 % confidence interval (CI) .8 and 1.5). The prevalence of minor depression was greater among pregnant women (16.6 %) compared to non-pregnant women (11.4 %; adjusted PR = 1.5, 95 % CI 1.2 and 1.9). Prevalence ratios are adjusted for the effects of covariates noted above. Prevalence of major depression is not associated with pregnancy, but minor depression is more likely among women who are pregnant. PMID:26687691

  1. Estimating Prevalences of Sensitive Problems from Nonsensitive Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heyman, Richard E.; Slep, Amy M. Smith

    2011-01-01

    Accurate and regularly updated prevalences are critical to guide both prevention and policy. However, despite their impact on public health, the prevalence of behavioral and mental health problems such as child maltreatment and intimate partner violence (IPV) are collected infrequently (e.g., once per decade or less). The purpose of this study is…

  2. Estimates of the world-wide prevalence of cancer for 25 sites in the adult population.

    PubMed

    Pisani, Paola; Bray, Freddie; Parkin, D Maxwell

    2002-01-01

    In health services planning, in addition to the basic measures of disease occurrence incidence and mortality, other indexes expressing the demand of care are also required to develop strategies for service provision. One of these is prevalence of the disease, which measures the absolute number, and relative proportion in the population, of individuals affected by the disease and that require some form of medical attention. For most cancer sites, cases surviving 5 years from diagnosis experience thereafter the same survival as the general population, so most of the workload is therefore due to medical acts within these first 5 years. This article reports world-wide estimates of 1-, 2-3- and 4-5-year point prevalence in 1990 in the population aged 15 years or over, and hence describes the number of cancer cases diagnosed between 1986 and 1990 who were still alive at the end of 1990. These estimates of prevalence at 1, 2-3 and 4-5 years are applicable to the evaluation of initial treatment, clinical follow-up and point of cure, respectively, for the majority of cancers. We describe the computational procedure and data sources utilised to obtain these figures and compare them with data published by 2 cancer registries. The highest prevalence of cancer is in North America with 1.5% of the population affected and diagnosed in the previous 5 years (about 0.5% of the population in years 4-5 and 2-3 of follow-up and 0.4% within the first year of diagnosis). This corresponds to over 3.2 million individuals. Western Europe and Australia and New Zealand show very similar percentages with 1.2% and 1.1% of the population affected (about 3.9 and 0.2 million cases respectively). Japan and Eastern Europe form the next batch with 1.0% and 0.7%, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (overall prevalence of 0.4%), and all remaining regions are around 0.2%. Cancer prevalence in developed countries is very similar in men and women, 1.1% of the sex-specific population, while in

  3. [Estimates and trends of obesity prevalence through mortality rates associated of chronic diseases in Mexico].

    PubMed

    Villa, Antonio R; Escobedo, Michelle H; Méndez-Sánchez, Nahum

    2004-01-01

    The pandemy of obesity is affecting more than 300 millions of adults in the world. The trend is increasing. Diabetes, coronary hearth disease, hypertension, cerebrovascular disease and dyslipidemia are chronic diseases associated with obesity. The methodology of this paper is proposed as an alternative resource based in mortality data to quantify the magnitude of chronic diseases in developing countries. Deaths for Mexico registered in 2000, according to selected causes, were taken to derive indirectly the prevalence of obesity in years 2000, 2005, and 2010, both males and females > or = 35 years-old. In 2010, an estimation of 8 million of Mexican with obesity is made. This methodology is referred to be probed in the quantification and projection of chronic diseases. According with our estimation, we hope in Mexico at 2010 to have between 8 and 14 millions of people > or = 35 years-old with obesity. PMID:15641468

  4. Development and Validation of a Hypertension Prevalence Estimator Tool For Use in Clinical Settings.

    PubMed

    Ritchey, Matthew; Yuan, Keming; Gillespie, Cathleen; Zhang, Guangyu; Ostchega, Yechiam

    2016-08-01

    Health systems are well positioned to identify and control hypertension among their patients. However, almost one third of US adults with uncontrolled hypertension are currently receiving medical care and are unaware of being hypertensive. This study describes the development and validation of a tool that health systems can use to compare their reported hypertension prevalence with their expected prevalence. Tool users provide the number of patients aged 18 to 85 years treated annually, stratified by sex, age group, race/ethnicity, and comorbidity status. Each stratum is multiplied by stratum-specific national prevalence estimates and the amounts are summed to calculate the number of expected hypertensive patients. The tool's validity was assessed by applying samples from cohorts with known hypertension prevalence; small differences in expected vs actual prevalence were identified (range, -3.3% to 0.6%). This tool provides clinically useful hypertension prevalence estimates that health systems can use to help inform hypertension management quality improvement efforts. PMID:26729615

  5. Estimate of HIV prevalence and number of people living with HIV in India 2008–2009

    PubMed Central

    Pandey, Arvind; Sahu, Damodar; Bakkali, Taoufi; Reddy, DCS; Venkatesh, S; Kant, Shashi; Bhattacharya, M; Raj, Yujwal; Haldar, Partha; Bhardwaj, Deepak; Chandra, Nalini

    2012-01-01

    Objectives To update the estimation of the adult HIV prevalence and number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in India for the year 2008−2009 with the combination of improved data and methods. Design Based on HIV sentinel surveillance (HSS) data and a set of epidemiological assumptions, estimates of HIV prevalence and burden in India have been derived. Setting HSS sites spread over all the States of India. Participants Secondary data from HSS sites which include attendees of antenatal clinics and sites under targeted interventions of high-risk groups, namely, female sex workers (FSW), intravenous drug users (IDU) and men having sex with men (MSM). Primary and secondary outcome measures Estimates of adult HIV prevalence and PLHIV in India and its states. Results The adult HIV prevalence in India has declined to an estimated 0.31% (0.25–0.39%) in 2009 against 0.36% (0.29–0.45%) in 2006. Among the high prevalence states, the HIV prevalence has declined in Tamil Nadu to 0.33% in 2009 and other states show either a plateau or a slightly declining trend over the time period 2006–2009. There are states in the low prevalence states where the adult HIV prevalence has risen over the last 4 years. The estimated number of PLHIV in India is 2.4 million (1.93–3.04 million) in 2009. Of which, 39% are women, children under 15 years of age account for 4.4% of all infections, while people aged 15–49 years account for 82.4% of all infections. Conclusions The estimated adult prevalence has declined in few states, a plateau or a slightly declining trend over the time. In future, efforts may be made to examine the implications of the emerging trend of the HIV prevalence on the recent infections in the study population. PMID:23028110

  6. Estimating the Prevalence of Childhood Obesity in Alaska Using Partial, Nonrandom Measurement Data

    PubMed Central

    Boles, Myde; Fink, Karol; Topol, Rebecca; Fenaughty, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    Although monitoring childhood obesity prevalence is critical for state public health programs to assess trends and the effectiveness of interventions, few states have comprehensive body mass index measurement systems in place. In some states, however, assorted school districts collect measurements on student height and weight as part of annual health screenings. To estimate childhood obesity prevalence in Alaska, we created a logistic regression model using such annual measurements along with public data on demographics and socioeconomic status. Our mixed-effects model-generated prevalence estimates validated well against weighted estimates, with 95% confidence intervals overlapping between methodologies among 7 of 8 participating school districts. Our methodology accounts for variation in school-level and student-level demographic factors across the state, and the approach we describe can be applied by other states that have existing nonrandom student measurement data to estimate childhood obesity prevalence. PMID:27010843

  7. Estimating the Prevalence of Childhood Obesity in Alaska Using Partial, Nonrandom Measurement Data.

    PubMed

    Everson, Erik; Boles, Myde; Fink, Karol; Topol, Rebecca; Fenaughty, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    Although monitoring childhood obesity prevalence is critical for state public health programs to assess trends and the effectiveness of interventions, few states have comprehensive body mass index measurement systems in place. In some states, however, assorted school districts collect measurements on student height and weight as part of annual health screenings. To estimate childhood obesity prevalence in Alaska, we created a logistic regression model using such annual measurements along with public data on demographics and socioeconomic status. Our mixed-effects model-generated prevalence estimates validated well against weighted estimates, with 95% confidence intervals overlapping between methodologies among 7 of 8 participating school districts. Our methodology accounts for variation in school-level and student-level demographic factors across the state, and the approach we describe can be applied by other states that have existing nonrandom student measurement data to estimate childhood obesity prevalence. PMID:27010843

  8. Estimating the prevalence of anaemia: a comparison of three methods.

    PubMed Central

    Sari, M.; de Pee, S.; Martini, E.; Herman, S.; Sugiatmi; Bloem, M. W.; Yip, R.

    2001-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine the most effective method for analysing haemoglobin concentrations in large surveys in remote areas, and to compare two methods (indirect cyanmethaemoglobin and HemoCue) with the conventional method (direct cyanmethaemoglobin). METHODS: Samples of venous and capillary blood from 121 mothers in Indonesia were compared using all three methods. FINDINGS: When the indirect cyanmethaemoglobin method was used the prevalence of anaemia was 31-38%. When the direct cyanmethaemoglobin or HemoCue method was used the prevalence was 14-18%. Indirect measurement of cyanmethaemoglobin had the highest coefficient of variation and the largest standard deviation of the difference between the first and second assessment of the same blood sample (10-12 g/l indirect measurement vs 4 g/l direct measurement). In comparison with direct cyanmethaemoglobin measurement of venous blood, HemoCue had the highest sensitivity (82.4%) and specificity (94.2%) when used for venous blood. CONCLUSIONS: Where field conditions and local resources allow it, haemoglobin concentration should be assessed with the direct cyanmethaemoglobin method, the gold standard. However, the HemoCue method can be used for surveys involving different laboratories or which are conducted in relatively remote areas. In very hot and humid climates, HemoCue microcuvettes should be discarded if not used within a few days of opening the container containing the cuvettes. PMID:11436471

  9. Spatially interpolated disease prevalence estimation using collateral indicators of morbidity and ecological risk.

    PubMed

    Congdon, Peter

    2013-10-01

    This paper considers estimation of disease prevalence for small areas (neighbourhoods) when the available observations on prevalence are for an alternative partition of a region, such as service areas. Interpolation to neighbourhoods uses a kernel method extended to take account of two types of collateral information. The first is morbidity and service use data, such as hospital admissions, observed for neighbourhoods. Variations in morbidity and service use are expected to reflect prevalence. The second type of collateral information is ecological risk factors (e.g., pollution indices) that are expected to explain variability in prevalence in service areas, but are typically observed only for neighbourhoods. An application involves estimating neighbourhood asthma prevalence in a London health region involving 562 neighbourhoods and 189 service (primary care) areas. PMID:24129116

  10. [Estimation of the prevalence of bovine hydatid cyst in the south Pyrenees].

    PubMed

    Bichet, H; Dorchies, P

    1998-03-01

    Since 1994 "Réseau VEGA" (veterinary survey network) has organized a record of sanitary information in 14 slaughterhouses in the Midi-Pyrénées. Data about hydatidosis in cattle are centralized, analysed, then sent namely to each stockbreeder concerned. Estimation of the prevalence rate from 1994 to 1996 is 0.28% for animals and 2.5% for livestock. A marked decrease of rates was noticed during this three year monitoring period. Nevertheless, the Pyrenean area remains more affected than the North of the region. In an outbreak of hydatidosis, a few animals are carriers. Bovine infestation must be considered as revealing a rural cycle. Moreover, the link between bovine hydatidosis and ovine transhumance seems to be confirmed. Using livestock as epidemiological units is innovative in terms of hydatidosis. This approach allows a better adjustment of parasitism control and introduces the notions of the outbreak and the risk of human contamination. In the Midi-Pyrénées region, local human cases of hydatidosis are few. However, the absence of compulsory notification and of databases, on the one hand, and the extreme difficulty of confirming the autochthonous nature of the contamination, on the other hand, limit the reliability of data. A better collaboration between physicians and veterinarians would reduce animal prevalence and the risk of human contamination. PMID:9754298

  11. Multicohort model for prevalence estimation of advanced malignant melanoma in the USA: an increasing public health concern.

    PubMed

    Lin, Amy Y; Wang, Peter F; Li, Haojie; Kolker, Jennifer A

    2012-12-01

    The aim of the study was to estimate the current prevalence of advanced cutaneous malignant melanoma in 2010 in the USA and to project prevalence estimates to the year 2015. An excel-based, multicohort natural disease history model was developed. It used incidence, recurrence, all-cause mortality, and US population data from the up-to-date surveillance, epidemiology, and end results program, the US census, and the literature. The prevalence was stratified by tumor stage, sex, and age. The model estimated that there were 800 735 malignant melanoma cases (258 per 100 000 individuals) in the USA in 2010, of which 10.4% were in advanced stages including stage III (22 per 100 000 individuals) and stage IV (four per 100 000 individuals). Among these advanced cases, 58.8% were men. In total, 42.1% of patients with advanced malignant melanoma were 65 years of age and older. Of these elderly patients with an advanced stage of the disease, 65.7% were men. The total number of cases and number of advanced cases were projected to increase from 2010 to 2015 by 24.4 and 21.0%, respectively. There will be approximately one million malignant melanoma cases (306 per 100 000 individuals) in the USA in 2015. The prevalence of advanced malignant melanoma is expected to increase in the next few years. Advanced malignant melanoma disproportionately affects men and the elderly in the USA. PMID:22990665

  12. Deforestation does not affect the prevalence of a common trypanosome in African birds.

    PubMed

    Valkiūnas, Gediminas; Iezhova, Tatjana A; Sehgal, Ravinder N M

    2016-10-01

    In spite of numerous reports of avian Trypanosoma spp. in birds throughout the world, patterns of the distribution and prevalence of these blood parasites remains insufficiently understood. It is clear that spatial heterogeneity influences parameters of parasite distributions in natural populations, but data regarding avian trypanosomes are scarce. Using microscopy and molecular diagnostic methods, we analysed the variation of prevalence of avian Trypanosoma parasites in two widespread African bird species, the yellow-whiskered greenbul Andropadus latirostris and the olive sunbird Cyanomitra olivacea. In all, 353 birds were captured in pristine forests and agroforest sites in Cameroon and Ghana. Overall, the prevalence of avian trypanosomes was 51.3%. Five morphospecies were reported (Trypanosoma everetti, T. anguiformis, T. avium, T. naviformis, T. ontarioensis). Trypanosoma everetti predominated, representing 98% of all Trypanosoma spp. reports, and it was present in both avian hosts. The prevalence of T. everetti was significantly less in the yellow-whiskered greenbul (19%) than olive sunbird (83%), and the same pattern of prevalence was reported in these avian hosts at different study sites. We found no interaction between sites and the prevalence of T. everetti. For both avian hosts, the prevalence did not differ significantly between pristine forests and agroforests. This indicates the same pattern of transmission at sites with different levels of deforestation and suggests that spatial heterogeneity related to deforestation does not affect the prevalence of avian Trypanosoma infections. It is likely that host-related factors, but not environmental conditions favour or reduce these parasite infections in forests of sub-Saharan Africa. Microscopic and PCR-based diagnostics showed the same sensitivity in diagnostics of T. everetti. We discuss the implications of these findings for the epidemiology of avian trypanosomiasis in natural populations. PMID:27421797

  13. Accuracy of selected techniques for estimating ice-affected streamflow

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walker, John F.

    1991-01-01

    This paper compares the accuracy of selected techniques for estimating streamflow during ice-affected periods. The techniques are classified into two categories - subjective and analytical - depending on the degree of judgment required. Discharge measurements have been made at three streamflow-gauging sites in Iowa during the 1987-88 winter and used to established a baseline streamflow record for each site. Using data based on a simulated six-week field-tip schedule, selected techniques are used to estimate discharge during the ice-affected periods. For the subjective techniques, three hydrographers have independently compiled each record. Three measures of performance are used to compare the estimated streamflow records with the baseline streamflow records: the average discharge for the ice-affected period, and the mean and standard deviation of the daily errors. Based on average ranks for three performance measures and the three sites, the analytical and subjective techniques are essentially comparable. For two of the three sites, Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis of variance detects significant differences among the three hydrographers for the subjective methods, indicating that the subjective techniques are less consistent than the analytical techniques. The results suggest analytical techniques may be viable tools for estimating discharge during periods of ice effect, and should be developed further and evaluated for sites across the United States.

  14. Estimating Contraceptive Prevalence Using Logistics Data for Short-Acting Methods: Analysis Across 30 Countries

    PubMed Central

    Cunningham, Marc; Brown, Niquelle; Sacher, Suzy; Hatch, Benjamin; Inglis, Andrew; Aronovich, Dana

    2015-01-01

    Background: Contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) is a vital indicator used by country governments, international donors, and other stakeholders for measuring progress in family planning programs against country targets and global initiatives as well as for estimating health outcomes. Because of the need for more frequent CPR estimates than population-based surveys currently provide, alternative approaches for estimating CPRs are being explored, including using contraceptive logistics data. Methods: Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in 30 countries, population data from the United States Census Bureau International Database, and logistics data from the Procurement Planning and Monitoring Report (PPMR) and the Pipeline Monitoring and Procurement Planning System (PipeLine), we developed and evaluated 3 models to generate country-level, public-sector contraceptive prevalence estimates for injectable contraceptives, oral contraceptives, and male condoms. Models included: direct estimation through existing couple-years of protection (CYP) conversion factors, bivariate linear regression, and multivariate linear regression. Model evaluation consisted of comparing the referent DHS prevalence rates for each short-acting method with the model-generated prevalence rate using multiple metrics, including mean absolute error and proportion of countries where the modeled prevalence rate for each method was within 1, 2, or 5 percentage points of the DHS referent value. Results: For the methods studied, family planning use estimates from public-sector logistics data were correlated with those from the DHS, validating the quality and accuracy of current public-sector logistics data. Logistics data for oral and injectable contraceptives were significantly associated (P<.05) with the referent DHS values for both bivariate and multivariate models. For condoms, however, that association was only significant for the bivariate model. With the exception of the CYP

  15. Estimating ice-affected streamflow by extended Kalman filtering

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holtschlag, D.J.; Grewal, M.S.

    1998-01-01

    An extended Kalman filter was developed to automate the real-time estimation of ice-affected streamflow on the basis of routine measurements of stream stage and air temperature and on the relation between stage and streamflow during open-water (ice-free) conditions. The filter accommodates three dynamic modes of ice effects: sudden formation/ablation, stable ice conditions, and eventual elimination. The utility of the filter was evaluated by applying it to historical data from two long-term streamflow-gauging stations, St. John River at Dickey, Maine and Platte River at North Bend, Nebr. Results indicate that the filter was stable and that parameters converged for both stations, producing streamflow estimates that are highly correlated with published values. For the Maine station, logarithms of estimated streamflows are within 8% of the logarithms of published values 87.2% of the time during periods of ice effects and within 15% 96.6% of the time. Similarly, for the Nebraska station, logarithms of estimated streamflows are within 8% of the logarithms of published values 90.7% of the time and within 15% 97.7% of the time. In addition, the correlation between temporal updates and published streamflows on days of direct measurements at the Maine station was 0.777 and 0.998 for ice-affected and open-water periods, respectively; for the Nebraska station, corresponding correlations were 0.864 and 0.997.

  16. Global and Regional Estimates of Prevalent and Incident Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 Infections in 2012

    PubMed Central

    Looker, Katharine J.; Magaret, Amalia S.; May, Margaret T.; Turner, Katherine M. E.; Vickerman, Peter; Gottlieb, Sami L.; Newman, Lori M.

    2015-01-01

    Background Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) commonly causes orolabial ulcers, while HSV-2 commonly causes genital ulcers. However, HSV-1 is an increasing cause of genital infection. Previously, the World Health Organization estimated the global burden of HSV-2 for 2003 and for 2012. The global burden of HSV-1 has not been estimated. Methods We fitted a constant-incidence model to pooled HSV-1 prevalence data from literature searches for 6 World Health Organization regions and used 2012 population data to derive global numbers of 0-49-year-olds with prevalent and incident HSV-1 infection. To estimate genital HSV-1, we applied values for the proportion of incident infections that are genital. Findings We estimated that 3709 million people (range: 3440–3878 million) aged 0–49 years had prevalent HSV-1 infection in 2012 (67%), with highest prevalence in Africa, South-East Asia and Western Pacific. Assuming 50% of incident infections among 15-49-year-olds are genital, an estimated 140 million (range: 67–212 million) people had prevalent genital HSV-1 infection, most of which occurred in the Americas, Europe and Western Pacific. Conclusions The global burden of HSV-1 infection is huge. Genital HSV-1 burden can be substantial but varies widely by region. Future control efforts, including development of HSV vaccines, should consider the epidemiology of HSV-1 in addition to HSV-2, and especially the relative contribution of HSV-1 to genital infection. PMID:26510007

  17. Prevalence and predictors of affective lability after pediatric traumatic brain injury

    PubMed Central

    Vasa, Roma A.; Suskauer, Stacy J.; Thorn, Julia M.; Kalb, Luther; Grados, Marco A.; Slomine, Beth S.; Salorio, Cynthia F.; Gerring, Joan P.

    2016-01-01

    Objective Paediatric severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) is associated with significant postinjury affective and behavioral problems. Few studies have examined the prevalence and characteristics of affective lability after paediatric TBI. Methods 97 children with severe TBI were evaluated one year postinjury for the presence of affective lability using the Children’s Affective Lability Scale (CALS). Demographic, clinical, and brain lesion characteristics were also assessed. Results Affective lability significantly increased after injury. Eighty-six children had a preinjury CALS score of 1SD or less from the group preinjury mean (M = 8.11, SD = 9.31) of which 35 and 15 children had a 1SD and 2SD increase in their CALS score from pre- to postinjury, respectively. A variety of affective shifts manifested postinjury including anxiety, silliness, dysphoria, and irritability. The most severe symptoms were irritability and unpredictable temper outbursts. Risk factors for affective lability included elevated preinjury affective lability and psychosocial adversity as well as greater damage to the orbitofrontal cortex. Postinjury affective lability was most frequently associated with a postinjury diagnosis of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder. Conclusions Affective lability is common after paediatric TBI and frequently manifests as irritability and unpredictable outbursts. Early intervention is needed to improve psychiatric outcomes. PMID:25950263

  18. High Prevalence and Clinical Relevance of Genes Affected by Chromosomal Breaks in Colorectal Cancer

    PubMed Central

    van den Broek, Evert; Dijkstra, Maurits J. J.; Krijgsman, Oscar; Sie, Daoud; Haan, Josien C.; Traets, Joleen J. H.; van de Wiel, Mark A.; Nagtegaal, Iris D.; Punt, Cornelis J. A.; Carvalho, Beatriz; Ylstra, Bauke; Abeln, Sanne; Meijer, Gerrit A.; Fijneman, Remond J. A.

    2015-01-01

    Background Cancer is caused by somatic DNA alterations such as gene point mutations, DNA copy number aberrations (CNA) and structural variants (SVs). Genome-wide analyses of SVs in large sample series with well-documented clinical information are still scarce. Consequently, the impact of SVs on carcinogenesis and patient outcome remains poorly understood. This study aimed to perform a systematic analysis of genes that are affected by CNA-associated chromosomal breaks in colorectal cancer (CRC) and to determine the clinical relevance of recurrent breakpoint genes. Methods Primary CRC samples of patients with metastatic disease from CAIRO and CAIRO2 clinical trials were previously characterized by array-comparative genomic hybridization. These data were now used to determine the prevalence of CNA-associated chromosomal breaks within genes across 352 CRC samples. In addition, mutation status of the commonly affected APC, TP53, KRAS, PIK3CA, FBXW7, SMAD4, BRAF and NRAS genes was determined for 204 CRC samples by targeted massive parallel sequencing. Clinical relevance was assessed upon stratification of patients based on gene mutations and gene breakpoints that were observed in >3% of CRC cases. Results In total, 748 genes were identified that were recurrently affected by chromosomal breaks (FDR <0.1). MACROD2 was affected in 41% of CRC samples and another 169 genes showed breakpoints in >3% of cases, indicating that prevalence of gene breakpoints is comparable to the prevalence of well-known gene point mutations. Patient stratification based on gene breakpoints and point mutations revealed one CRC subtype with very poor prognosis. Conclusions We conclude that CNA-associated chromosomal breaks within genes represent a highly prevalent and clinically relevant subset of SVs in CRC. PMID:26375816

  19. Estimating HIV incidence among key affected populations in China from serial cross-sectional surveys in 2010–2014

    PubMed Central

    Cui, Yan; Guo, Wei; Li, Dongmin; Wang, Liyan; Shi, Cynthia X; Brookmeyer, Ron; Detels, Roger; Ge, Lin; Ding, Zhengwei; Wu, Zunyou

    2016-01-01

    Introduction HIV incidence is an important measure for monitoring the development of the epidemic, but it is difficult to ascertain. We combined serial HIV prevalence and mortality data to estimate HIV incidence among key affected populations (KAPs) in China. Methods Serial cross-sectional surveys were conducted among KAPs from 2010 to 2014. Trends in HIV prevalence were assessed by the Cochran-Armitage test, adjusted by risk group. HIV incidence was estimated from a mathematical model that describes the relationship between changes in HIV incidence with HIV prevalence and mortality. Results The crude HIV prevalence for the survey samples remained stable at 1.1 to 1.2% from 2010 to 2014. Among drug users (DUs), HIV prevalence declined from 4.48 to 3.29% (p<0.0001), and among men who have sex with men (MSM), HIV prevalence increased from 5.73 to 7.75% (p<0.0001). Changes in HIV prevalence among female sex workers (FSWs) and male patients of sexually transmitted disease clinics were more modest but remained statistically significant (all p<0.0001). The MSM population had the highest incidence estimates at 0.74% in 2011, 0.59% in 2012, 0.57% in 2013 and 0.53% in 2014. Estimates of the annual incidence for DUs and FSWs were very low and may not be reliable. Conclusions Serial cross-sectional prevalence data from representative samples may be another approach to construct approximate estimates of national HIV incidence among key populations. We observed that the MSM population had the highest incidence for HIV among high-risk groups in China, and we suggest that interventions targeting MSM are urgently needed to curb the growing HIV epidemic. PMID:26989062

  20. A door-to-door survey to estimate the prevalence of Parkinsonism in Pakistan

    PubMed Central

    Khan, Suliman; Nabi, Ghulam; Naeem, Muhammad; Ali, Liaqat; Silburn, Peter A; Mellick, George D

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Parkinson’s disease (PD) occurs in all races and cultures, and population-related differences in frequency may provide etiological clues. The present study was designed to explore the prevalence of PD and Parkinsonism in Pakistan, the world’s sixth most populous country, for which no published prevalence data are available. Methods We conducted a three-phase door-to-door survey in two districts of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan, to assess the prevalence of PD and Parkinsonism in a sample of 4,000 individuals aged 50 years and above. Results We identified 14 cases of Parkinsonism, eleven with a diagnosis of idiopathic PD. The overall prevalence estimates were 1.7/100 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.9–2.46) for Parkinsonism and 1.28/100 (95% CI: 0.6–1.94) for PD in persons aged 65 years and above. The age-standardized prevalence of PD (aged 65 years and above), normalized to the USA population in 2000, was 1.33/100, which is similar to that observed in other human populations. Of the total 14 cases, five were newly diagnosed and four had a family history of PD. Conclusion The estimated prevalence rates in Pakistan are similar to those observed in other human populations. The frequency of familial Parkinsonism is also equivalent to previous estimates. PMID:27382292

  1. Revisiting multi-subject random effects in fMRI: advocating prevalence estimation.

    PubMed

    Rosenblatt, J D; Vink, M; Benjamini, Y

    2014-01-01

    Random effect analysis has been introduced into fMRI research in order to generalize findings from the study group to the whole population. Generalizing findings is obviously harder than detecting activation within the study group since in order to be significant, an activation has to be larger than the inter-subject variability. Indeed, detected regions are smaller when using random effect analysis versus fixed effects. The statistical assumptions behind the classic random effect model are that the effect in each location is normally distributed over subjects, and "activation" refers to a non-null mean effect. We argue that this model is unrealistic compared to the true population variability, where due to function-anatomy inconsistencies and registration anomalies, some of the subjects are active and some are not at each brain location. We propose a Gaussian-mixture-random-effect that amortizes between-subject spatial disagreement and quantifies it using the prevalence of activation at each location. We present a formal definition and an estimation procedure of this prevalence. The end result of the proposed analysis is a map of the prevalence at locations with significant activation, highlighting activation regions that are common over many brains. Prevalence estimation has several desirable properties: (a) It is more informative than the typical active/inactive paradigm. (b) In contrast to the usual display of p-values in activated regions - which trivially converge to 0 for large sample sizes - prevalence estimates converge to the true prevalence. PMID:23988271

  2. The estimated prevalence and incidence of late stage age related macular degeneration in the UK

    PubMed Central

    Jarrar, Zakariya; Wormald, Richard; Cook, Derek G; Fletcher, Astrid E; Rudnicka, Alicja R

    2012-01-01

    Background UK estimates of age related macular degeneration (AMD) occurrence vary. Aims To estimate prevalence, number and incidence of AMD by type in the UK population aged ≥50 years. Methods Age-specific prevalence rates of AMD obtained from a Bayesian meta-analysis of AMD prevalence were applied to UK 2007–2009 population data. Incidence was estimated from modelled age-specific prevalence. Results Overall prevalence of late AMD was 2.4% (95% credible interval (CrI) 1.7% to 3.3%), equivalent to 513 000 cases (95% CrI 363 000 to 699 000); estimated to increase to 679 000 cases by 2020. Prevalences were 4.8% aged ≥65 years, 12.2% aged ≥80 years. Geographical atrophy (GA) prevalence rates were 1.3% (95% CrI 0.9% to 1.9%), 2.6% (95% CrI 1.8% to 3.7%) and 6.7% (95% CrI 4.6% to 9.6%); neovascular AMD (NVAMD) 1.2% (95% CrI 0.9% to 1.7%), 2.5% (95% CrI 1.8% to 3.4%) and 6.3% (95% CrI 4.5% to 8.6%), respectively. The estimated number of prevalent cases of late AMD were 60% higher in women versus men (314 000 cases in women, 192 000 men). Annual incidence of late AMD, GA and NVAMD per 1000 women was 4.1 (95% CrI 2.4% to 6.8%), 2.4 (95% CrI 1.5% to 3.9%) and 2.3 (95% CrI 1.4% to 4.0%); in men 2.6 (95% CrI 1.5% to 4.4%), 1.7 (95% CrI 1.0% to 2.8%) and 1.4 (95% CrI 0.8% to 2.4%), respectively. 71 000 new cases of late AMD were estimated per year. Conclusions These estimates will guide health and social service provision for those with late AMD and enable estimation of the cost of introducing new treatments. PMID:22329913

  3. Factors Affecting Prostate Volume Estimation in Computed Tomography Images

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, Cheng-Hsiu; Wang, Shyh-Jen; Lin, Alex Tong-Long; Lin, Chao-An

    2011-04-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate how apex-localizing methods and the computed tomography (CT) slice thickness affected the CT-based prostate volume estimation. Twenty-eight volunteers underwent evaluations of prostate volume by CT, where the contour segmentations were performed by three observers. The bottom of ischial tuberosities (ITs) and the bulb of the penis were used as reference positions to locate the apex, and the distances to the apex were recorded as 1.3 and 2.0 cm, respectively. Interobserver variations to locate ITs and the bulb of the penis were, on average, 0.10 cm (range 0.03-0.38 cm) and 0.30 cm (range 0.00-0.98 cm), respectively. The range of CT slice thickness varied from 0.08-0.48 cm and was adopted to examine the influence of the variation on volume estimation. The volume deviation from the reference case (0.08 cm), which increases in tandem with the slice thickness, was within {+-} 3 cm{sup 3}, regardless of the adopted apex-locating reference positions. In addition, the maximum error of apex identification was 1.5 times of slice thickness. Finally, based on the precise CT films and the methods of apex identification, there were strong positive correlation coefficients for the estimated prostate volume by CT and the transabdominal ultrasonography, as found in the present study (r > 0.87; p < 0.0001), and this was confirmed by Bland-Altman analysis. These results will help to identify factors that affect prostate volume calculation and to contribute to the improved estimation of the prostate volume based on CT images.

  4. Estimating the prevalence of drug misuse in Dundee, Scotland: an application of capture-recapture methods.

    PubMed Central

    Hay, G; McKeganey, N

    1996-01-01

    STUDY OBJECTIVES: To apply capture-recapture methods to provide an estimate of the prevalence of opiate and benzodiazepine misuse in Dundee, Scotland. DESIGN: A four sample capture-recapture method using data from both statutory and non-statutory data sources to estimate drug misuse prevalence in Dundee between January 1990 and December 1994. PARTICIPANTS: Users of benzodiazepines or opiates residing within Dundee. RESULTS: Altogether 855 drug misusers were identified from various sources within Dundee; many were identified from more than one source. Using this data, the estimated unknown population was 1702, giving a total population of 2557 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1974, 3458) who misuse benzodiazepines or opiates. This represents a prevalence of 28.8 (95% CI 22.3, 39.0) per thousand. CONCLUSIONS: Capture-recapture techniques can be applied to statutory and non-statutory agency data to produce an estimate of at least certain sections of the drug misusing population. However, it is important to recognise the limitations of this methodology and in future to seek to combine a range of approaches to the problem of estimating prevalence rather than sticking rigidly to any single approach. PMID:8882234

  5. The Lifetime Prevalence of Anabolic-Androgenic Steroid Use and Dependence in Americans: Current Best Estimates

    PubMed Central

    Pope, Harrison G.; Kanayama, Gen; Athey, Alison; Ryan, Erin; Hudson, James I.; Baggish, Aaron

    2013-01-01

    Background and Objectives Although various surveys have tracked the prevalence of anabolic-androgenic steroid (AAS) use in American teenagers and young adults, no recent surveys have assessed the lifetime prevalence of AAS use in Americans overall. We therefore analyzed serial youth-survey data to derive estimates of the lifetime prevalence of AAS use in the current American general population. Methods We first determined the distribution of age of onset of AAS use, based on pooled data from nine studies. Using this distribution, we then developed equations to project the eventual lifetime prevalence of AAS use among young survey respondents, once they aged and completed the period of risk for initiating AAS. We similarly calculated the denominator of lifetimes of risk for AAS use in the total American population. We next applied these equations to four independent national youth datasets to derive current American general-population estimates for lifetime AAS use. Finally, using data from 10 pooled studies, we estimated the lifetime prevalence of AAS dependence among AAS users. Results Age-of-onset studies consistently showed that AAS use begins later than most drugs, with only 22% of users (95% confidence interval: 19%–25%) starting before age 20. Applying the age-of-onset findings to national youth datasets, we estimated that among Americans currently age 13 to 50 years, 2.9–4.0 million have used AAS. Within this group, roughly 1 million may have experienced AAS dependence. Conclusions and Scientific Significance Although subject to various limitations, our estimation techniques suggest a surprisinigly high prevalence of AAS use and dependence among Americans. PMID:24112239

  6. Evidence base for children affected by HIV and AIDS in low prevalence and concentrated epidemic countries: applicability to programming guidance from high prevalence countries

    PubMed Central

    Franco, Lynne Miller; Burkhalter, Bart; de Wagt, Arjan; Jennings, Larissa; Kelley, Allison Gamble; Hammink, Marie-Eve

    2009-01-01

    As global commitment grows to protect and support children affected by HIV and AIDS, questions remain about how best to meet the needs of these children in low prevalence settings and whether information from high prevalence countries can appropriately guide programming in these settings. A 2007 search for the evidence in low prevalence settings on situational challenges of HIV and AIDS-affected children and interventions to address these challenges identified 413 documents. They were reviewed and judged for quality of documentation and scientific rigor. Information was compiled across eight types of challenges (health and health care, nutrition and food security, education, protection, placement, psychosocial development, socioeconomic status, and stigma/ discrimination); and also assessed was strength of evidence for situational and intervention findings. Results were compared to three programming principles drawn from research in high prevalence countries: family-centered preventive efforts, treatment, and care; family-focused support to ensure capacity to care for and protect these children; and sustaining economic livelihood of HIV and AIDS-affected households. Findings show that children affected by HIV and AIDS in low prevalence settings face increased vulnerabilities similar to those in high prevalence settings. These findings support seeking and testing programmatic directions for interventions identified in high prevalence settings. However, low prevalence settings/countries are extremely diverse, and the strength of the evidence base among them was mixed (strong, moderate, and weak in study design and documentation), geographically limited, and had insufficient evidence on interventions to draw conclusions about how best to reduce additional vulnerabilities of affected children. Information on family, economic, sociocultural, and political factors within local contexts will be vital in the development of appropriate strategies to mitigate vulnerabilities

  7. Estimated Prevalence of Glaucoma in South Korea Using the National Claims Database

    PubMed Central

    Seo, Sang Jin; Lee, Yun Ha; Lee, Sang Yeop; Bae, Hyoung Won; Hong, Samin; Seong, Gong Je; Kim, Chan Yun

    2016-01-01

    Purpose. To estimate the prevalence of glaucoma and costs associated with glaucoma care in South Korea between 2008 and 2013 using the Korean national claims database. Design. Retrospective cross-sectional study from a national claims database. Methods. Patients who were diagnosed with glaucoma between 2008 and 2013 were retrospectively identified in the national claims database using glaucoma diagnostic codes. For each year, the prevalence of glaucoma and direct medical costs associated with glaucoma care were estimated. Result. The prevalence of glaucoma in patients ≥40 years of age increased from 0.79% in 2008 to 1.05% in 2013. The number of patients with glaucoma increased by 54% between 2008 and 2013 (9% average annual increase). The prevalence of glaucoma increased with age and was higher in males than in females. The cost to care for glaucoma patients increased from $16.5 million in 2008 to $29.2 million in 2013, which translated into an 81% increase over the 6 years examined (12.7% average annual increase). Conclusion. The estimated prevalence and socioeconomic burden of glaucoma have steadily increased each year in South Korea. Nevertheless, many glaucoma patients remain undiagnosed in the present study using national claims database. PMID:27247797

  8. Global and regional estimates of COPD prevalence: Systematic review and meta–analysis

    PubMed Central

    Adeloye, Davies; Chua, Stephen; Lee, Chinwei; Basquill, Catriona; Papana, Angeliki; Theodoratou, Evropi; Nair, Harish; Gasevic, Danijela; Sridhar, Devi; Campbell, Harry; Chan, Kit Yee; Sheikh, Aziz; Rudan, Igor

    2015-01-01

    Background The burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) across many world regions is high. We aim to estimate COPD prevalence and number of disease cases for the years 1990 and 2010 across world regions based on the best available evidence in publicly accessible scientific databases. Methods We conducted a systematic search of Medline, EMBASE and Global Health for original, population–based studies providing spirometry–based prevalence rates of COPD across the world from January 1990 to December 2014. Random effects meta–analysis was conducted on extracted crude prevalence rates of COPD, with overall summaries of the meta–estimates (and confidence intervals) reported separately for World Health Organization (WHO) regions, the World Bank's income categories and settings (urban and rural). We developed a meta–regression epidemiological model that we used to estimate the prevalence of COPD in people aged 30 years or more. Findings Our search returned 37 472 publications. A total of 123 studies based on a spirometry–defined prevalence were retained for the review. From the meta–regression epidemiological model, we estimated about 227.3 million COPD cases in the year 1990 among people aged 30 years or more, corresponding to a global prevalence of 10.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 7.3%–14.0%) in this age group. The number of COPD cases increased to 384 million in 2010, with a global prevalence of 11.7% (8.4%–15.0%). This increase of 68.9% was mainly driven by global demographic changes. Across WHO regions, the highest prevalence was estimated in the Americas (13.3% in 1990 and 15.2% in 2010), and the lowest in South East Asia (7.9% in 1990 and 9.7% in 2010). The percentage increase in COPD cases between 1990 and 2010 was the highest in the Eastern Mediterranean region (118.7%), followed by the African region (102.1%), while the European region recorded the lowest increase (22.5%). In 1990, we estimated about 120.9 million COPD cases

  9. [Factors affecting the estimation of pollen limitation in Sagittaria trifolia].

    PubMed

    Qin, Dao-feng; Li, Ting; Dai, Can

    2015-12-01

    This study explored whether the degree of pollen limitation was affected by the experimental level (a single flower or inflorescence) and pollen quality (self-pollen or outcross-pollen) of supplemental pollination in Sagittaria trifolia. The results showed that the experimental level caused varying degree of pollen limitation. Compared with the inflorescence level, pollination at the single flower level led to a redistribution of resources among flowers, therefore affecting seed numbers. Pollen quality also played a vital role in the estimation of pollen limitation. Compared with self-pollen, supplemental pollination with outcross-pollen resulted in significantly more seeds and a higher germination rate. This proved that in the research system the reproduction was limited by pollen quality rather than quantity. Our study revealed that both experimental level and pollen quality had effects on the estimation of pollen limitation. It was suggested that in future studies we should evaluate pollen limitation at the inflorescence or whole plant level, and also consider comparing self- and outcross-pollen when applicable. PMID:27112030

  10. Body dysmorphic disorder in different settings: A systematic review and estimated weighted prevalence.

    PubMed

    Veale, David; Gledhill, Lucinda J; Christodoulou, Polyxeni; Hodsoll, John

    2016-09-01

    Our aim was to systematically review the prevalence of body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) in a variety of settings. Weighted prevalence estimate and 95% confidence intervals in each study were calculated. The weighted prevalence of BDD in adults in the community was estimated to be 1.9%; in adolescents 2.2%; in student populations 3.3%; in adult psychiatric inpatients 7.4%; in adolescent psychiatric inpatients 7.4%; in adult psychiatric outpatients 5.8%; in general cosmetic surgery 13.2%; in rhinoplasty surgery 20.1%; in orthognathic surgery 11.2%; in orthodontics/cosmetic dentistry settings 5.2%; in dermatology outpatients 11.3%; in cosmetic dermatology outpatients 9.2%; and in acne dermatology clinics 11.1%. Women outnumbered men in the majority of settings but not in cosmetic or dermatological settings. BDD is common in some psychiatric and cosmetic settings but is poorly identified. PMID:27498379

  11. Satellite-based Estimates of Ambient Air Pollution and Global Variations in Childhood Asthma Prevalence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, H. Ross; Butland, Barbara K.; Donkelaar, Aaron Matthew Van; Brauer, Michael; Strachan, David P.; Clayton, Tadd; van Dingenen, Rita; Amann, Marcus; Brunekreef, Bert; Cohen, Aaron; Dentener, Frank; Lai, Christopher; Lamsal, Lok N.; Martin, Randall V.

    2012-01-01

    Background: The effect of ambient air pollution on global variations and trends in asthma prevalence is unclear. Objectives: Our goal was to investigate community-level associations between asthma prevalence data from the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) and satellite-based estimates of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and modelled estimates of ozone. Methods: We assigned satellite-based estimates of PM2.5 and NO2 at a spatial resolution of 0.1deg × 0.1deg and modeled estimates of ozone at a resolution of 1deg × 1deg to 183 ISAAC centers. We used center-level prevalence of severe asthma as the outcome and multilevel models to adjust for gross national income (GNI) and center- and country-level sex, climate, and population density. We examined associations (adjusting for GNI) between air pollution and asthma prevalence over time in centers with data from ISAAC Phase One (mid-1900s) and Phase Three (2001-2003). Results: For the 13- to 14-year age group (128 centers in 28 countries), the estimated average within-country change in center-level asthma prevalence per 100 children per 10% increase in center-level PM2.5 and NO2 was -0.043 [95% confidence interval (CI): -0.139, 0.053] and 0.017 (95% CI: -0.030, 0.064) respectively. For ozone the estimated change in prevalence per parts per billion by volume was -0.116 (95% CI: -0.234, 0.001). Equivalent results for the 6- to 7-year age group (83 centers in 20 countries), though slightly different, were not significantly positive. For the 13- to 14-year age group, change in center-level asthma prevalence over time per 100 children per 10% increase in PM2.5 from Phase One to Phase Three was -0.139 (95% CI: -0.347, 0.068). The corresponding association with ozone (per ppbV) was -0.171 (95% CI: -0.275, -0.067). Conclusion: In contrast to reports from within-community studies of individuals exposed to traffic pollution, we did not find

  12. Estimated Prevalence of People with Cognitive Impairment: Results from Nationally Representative Community and Institutional Surveys

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bernstein, Amy B.; Remsburg, Robin E.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: We address how the national prevalence of cognitive impairment can be estimated from two nationally representative surveys. Design and Methods: Data are from the 1999-2001 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the 1999 National Nursing Home Survey (NNHS). The NHIS represents all community-dwelling people living in the United States,…

  13. Prevalence Estimates of Health Risk Behaviors of Immigrant Latino Men Who Have Sex with Men

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rhodes, Scott D.; McCoy, Thomas P.; Hergenrather, Kenneth C.; Vissman, Aaron T.; Wolfson, Mark; Alonzo, Jorge; Bloom, Fred R.; Alegria-Ortega, Jose; Eng, Eugenia

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: Little is known about the health status of rural immigrant Latino men who have sex with men (MSM). These MSM comprise a subpopulation that tends to remain "hidden" from both researchers and practitioners. This study was designed to estimate the prevalence of tobacco, alcohol, and drug use, and sexual risk behaviors of Latino MSM living in…

  14. The estimated prevalence and incidence of HIV in 96 large US metropolitan areas.

    PubMed Central

    Holmberg, S D

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: This study sought to estimate the size and direction of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic in US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) with populations greater than 500,000. METHODS: A "components model" from review of more than 350 documents, several large datasets, and information from 220 public health personnel was used. Data review focused on injection drug users, men who have sex with men, and high-risk heterosexual men and women. RESULTS: In the 96 MSAs, there are, broadly, an estimated 1.5 million injection drug users, 1.7 million gay and bisexual men, and 2.1 million at-risk heterosexuals, and, among them, an estimated 565,000 prevalent and 38,000 incident HIV infections. This implies about 700,000 prevalent and 41,000 new HIV infections yearly in the United States. Roughly half of all estimated new infections are occurring among injection drug users, most of them in northeastern cities, Miami, and San Juan. Gay and bisexual men still represent most prevalent HIV infections, although incidence--except in young and minority gay men--is much lower now than it was a decade ago. Relatively high prevalences of HIV in at-risk heterosexual persons in several cities indicate the potential for an increase in transmission among them. CONCLUSIONS: This review and synthesis outline the comparative epidemiology of HIV in major US cities and identify populations for interventions. PMID:8629714

  15. Redrawing the US Obesity Landscape: Bias-Corrected Estimates of State-Specific Adult Obesity Prevalence

    PubMed Central

    Ward, Zachary J.; Long, Michael W.; Resch, Stephen C.; Gortmaker, Steven L.; Cradock, Angie L.; Giles, Catherine; Hsiao, Amber; Wang, Y. Claire

    2016-01-01

    Background State-level estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) underestimate the obesity epidemic because they use self-reported height and weight. We describe a novel bias-correction method and produce corrected state-level estimates of obesity and severe obesity. Methods Using non-parametric statistical matching, we adjusted self-reported data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) 2013 (n = 386,795) using measured data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (n = 16,924). We validated our national estimates against NHANES and estimated bias-corrected state-specific prevalence of obesity (BMI≥30) and severe obesity (BMI≥35). We compared these results with previous adjustment methods. Results Compared to NHANES, self-reported BRFSS data underestimated national prevalence of obesity by 16% (28.67% vs 34.01%), and severe obesity by 23% (11.03% vs 14.26%). Our method was not significantly different from NHANES for obesity or severe obesity, while previous methods underestimated both. Only four states had a corrected obesity prevalence below 30%, with four exceeding 40%–in contrast, most states were below 30% in CDC maps. Conclusions Twelve million adults with obesity (including 6.7 million with severe obesity) were misclassified by CDC state-level estimates. Previous bias-correction methods also resulted in underestimates. Accurate state-level estimates are necessary to plan for resources to address the obesity epidemic. PMID:26954566

  16. Estimates of HIV prevalence in a highly endemic area of China: Dehong Prefecture, Yunnan Province

    PubMed Central

    Jia, Yujiang; Sun, Jiangping; Fan, Lu; Song, Duan; Tian, Shuming; Yang, Yuecheng; Jia, Manhong; Lu, Lin; Sun, Xinhua; Zhang, Sanguo; Kulczycki, Andrzej; Vermund, Sten H

    2008-01-01

    Background Dehong Prefecture in Yunnan Province, China, borders Myanmar. Its proximity to the ‘Golden Triangle’, one of the world's largest illicit drug production and distribution centre, contributes to drug trafficking and ready availability of heroin. Dehong's 1.1 million people confront a serious HIV problem fuelled by injection drug use. The aim of this study is to improve the 2005 estimates of the true status of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Dehong Prefecture. Methods We estimated the HIV prevalence by synthesizing the results from several data sources (HIV/AIDS case reports, surveys, surveillance activities and epidemiological studies). We applied three different statistical procedures for estimations: (i) The Workbook method, adapted to meet the estimation needs in Dehong Prefecture; (ii) An estimate based on antenatal clinical data; and (iii) a dynamic model based on the local epidemic pattern. Results We estimated that the population prevalence for HIV infections in Dehong Prefecture is 1.3% (likely range from low/high of three estimates: 0.9–1.7%) such that 13 500 people were living with HIV/AIDS in Dehong Prefecture (likely range: 8200–18 300) in 2005. Infections remain concentrated among injection drug users, female sex workers and their clients with an uneven geographical distribution of estimated cases. Conclusion More reliable estimates of HIV prevalence can be made by synthesizing multiple data sources using several procedures. Current HIV prevention, care and treatment challenges are judged substantial in Dehong Prefecture, regardless of what modelling strategy is used. PMID:18922804

  17. Accuracy of Herdsmen Reporting versus Serologic Testing for Estimating Foot-and-Mouth Disease Prevalence

    PubMed Central

    Handel, Ian G.; Tanya, Vincent N.; Hamman, Saidou M.; Nfon, Charles; Bergman, Ingrid E.; Malirat, Viviana; Sorensen, Karl J.; Bronsvoort, Barend M. de C.

    2014-01-01

    Herdsman-reported disease prevalence is widely used in veterinary epidemiologic studies, especially for diseases with visible external lesions; however, the accuracy of such reports is rarely validated. Thus, we used latent class analysis in a Bayesian framework to compare sensitivity and specificity of herdsman reporting with virus neutralization testing and use of 3 nonstructural protein ELISAs for estimates of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) prevalence on the Adamawa plateau of Cameroon in 2000. Herdsman-reported estimates in this FMD-endemic area were comparable to those obtained from serologic testing. To harness to this cost-effective resource of monitoring emerging infectious diseases, we suggest that estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of herdsmen reporting should be done in parallel with serologic surveys of other animal diseases. PMID:25417556

  18. A Bayesian Approach to Latent Class Modeling for Estimating the Prevalence of Schizophrenia Using Administrative Databases

    PubMed Central

    Laliberté, Vincent; Joseph, Lawrence; Gold, Ian

    2015-01-01

    Estimating the incidence and the prevalence of psychotic disorders in the province of Quebec has been the object of some interest in recent years as a contribution to the epidemiological study of the causes of psychotic disorders being carried out primarily in UK and Scandinavia. A number of studies have used administrative data from the Régie de l’assurance maladie du Québec (RAMQ) that includes nearly all Quebec citizens to obtain geographical and temporal prevalence estimates for the illness. However, there has been no investigation of the validity of RAMQ diagnoses for psychotic disorders, and without a measure of the sensitivity and the specificity of these diagnoses, it is impossible to be confident in the accuracy of the estimates obtained. This paper proposes the use of latent class analysis to ascertain the validity of a diagnosis of schizophrenia using RAMQ data. PMID:26217241

  19. Sampling frequency affects estimates of annual nitrous oxide fluxes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barton, L.; Wolf, B.; Rowlings, D.; Scheer, C.; Kiese, R.; Grace, P.; Stefanova, K.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.

    2015-11-01

    Quantifying nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes, a potent greenhouse gas, from soils is necessary to improve our knowledge of terrestrial N2O losses. Developing universal sampling frequencies for calculating annual N2O fluxes is difficult, as fluxes are renowned for their high temporal variability. We demonstrate daily sampling was largely required to achieve annual N2O fluxes within 10% of the ‘best’ estimate for 28 annual datasets collected from three continents—Australia, Europe and Asia. Decreasing the regularity of measurements either under- or overestimated annual N2O fluxes, with a maximum overestimation of 935%. Measurement frequency was lowered using a sampling strategy based on environmental factors known to affect temporal variability, but still required sampling more than once a week. Consequently, uncertainty in current global terrestrial N2O budgets associated with the upscaling of field-based datasets can be decreased significantly using adequate sampling frequencies.

  20. Sampling frequency affects estimates of annual nitrous oxide fluxes.

    PubMed

    Barton, L; Wolf, B; Rowlings, D; Scheer, C; Kiese, R; Grace, P; Stefanova, K; Butterbach-Bahl, K

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes, a potent greenhouse gas, from soils is necessary to improve our knowledge of terrestrial N2O losses. Developing universal sampling frequencies for calculating annual N2O fluxes is difficult, as fluxes are renowned for their high temporal variability. We demonstrate daily sampling was largely required to achieve annual N2O fluxes within 10% of the 'best' estimate for 28 annual datasets collected from three continents--Australia, Europe and Asia. Decreasing the regularity of measurements either under- or overestimated annual N2O fluxes, with a maximum overestimation of 935%. Measurement frequency was lowered using a sampling strategy based on environmental factors known to affect temporal variability, but still required sampling more than once a week. Consequently, uncertainty in current global terrestrial N2O budgets associated with the upscaling of field-based datasets can be decreased significantly using adequate sampling frequencies. PMID:26522228

  1. The estimated prevalence and correlates of adult ADHD in a German community sample.

    PubMed

    de Zwaan, Martina; Gruss, Barbara; Müller, Astrid; Graap, Holmer; Martin, Alexandra; Glaesmer, Heide; Hilbert, Anja; Philipsen, Alexandra

    2012-02-01

    Little research on the prevalence and correlates of adult ADHD has been conducted outside the United States. The aim of the present study was to estimate the prevalence and correlates of adult ADHD in a large representative sample of the German population aged 18-64 years (n = 1,655). Two self-rating screening instruments to assess childhood and adult ADHD symptomatology were used to estimate the prevalence of ADHD. A 4-item screening tool was used to assess probable cases of current depression and anxiety (Patient Health Questionnaire). The estimated crude prevalence rate of current ADHD was 4.7%. Adult ADHD was significantly associated with lower age, low educational level, unemployment, marital status (never married and divorced), and rural residency. No association was found with gender. Adult ADHD was strongly associated with positive screening results for depression and anxiety. ADHD is a common disorder of adulthood, is associated with significant social impairment and psychiatric co-morbidity, and should receive further research attention. PMID:21499942

  2. Interstudy heterogeneity of definitions of diastolic dysfunction severely affects reported prevalence

    PubMed Central

    Selmeryd, Jonas; Henriksen, Egil; Leppert, Jerzy; Hedberg, Pär

    2016-01-01

    Aims The aim of this article is to examine how the European Association of Cardiovascular Imaging (EACVI) and the American Society of Echocardiography (ASE) recommendations on the classification of diastolic dysfunction (DDF) are interpreted in the scientific community and to explore how variations in the DDF definition affect the reported prevalence. Methods and results A systematic review of studies citing the EACVI/ASE consensus document ‘Recommendations for the evaluation of left ventricular diastolic function by echocardiography’ was performed. The definition of DDF used in each study was recorded. Subsequently, several possible interpretations of the EACVI/ASE classification scheme were used to obtain DDF prevalence in a community-based sample (n = 714). In the systematic review, 60 studies were included. In 13 studies, no specification of DDF definition was presented, a one-level classification tree was used in 13, a two-level classification tree in 18, and in the remaining 16 studies, a DDF definition was presented but no grading of DDF was performed. In 17 studies, the DDF definition relied solely on early diastolic tissue velocity and/or left atrial size. In eight of these studies, a single parameter was used, in two studies the logical operator AND was used to combine two or more parameters, and the remaining seven studies used the logical operator OR. The resulting prevalence of DDF in the community-based sample varied from 12 to 84%, depending on the DDF definition used. Conclusion A substantial heterogeneity of definitions of DDF was evident among the studies reviewed, and the different definitions had a substantial impact on the reported prevalence of DDF. PMID:26374880

  3. Estimation of global and regional incidence and prevalence of abdominal aortic aneurysms 1990 to 2010.

    PubMed

    Sampson, Uchechukwu K A; Norman, Paul E; Fowkes, F Gerald R; Aboyans, Victor; Song, Yanna; Harrell, Frank E; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Naghavi, Mohsen; Denenberg, Julie O; McDermott, Mary M; Criqui, Michael H; Mensah, George A; Ezzati, Majid; Murray, Christopher

    2014-03-01

    The global burden of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) has not been studied previously. Such information is important given the emergence of cardiovascular diseases in developing countries. We conducted a systematic literature review and estimated the global and regional incidence and prevalence of AAA in 21 world regions by age and sex. The search for prevalence and incidence of AAA using standard clinical and epidemiological terms was conducted using MEDLINE (1950 to 2010), EMBASE (1980 to 2010), AMED (1985 to 2010), CINAHL (1982 to 2010), and LILACS (2008 to 2010). Data abstracted from the systematic review served as priors for Bayesian meta-regression analyses. The analysis drew from 26 high-quality studies to estimate AAA prevalence and incidence. In 1990, the global age-specific prevalence rate per 100,000 ranged from 8.43 (95% CI: 7.03 to 10.14) in the 40 to 44 years age group to 2,422.53 (95% CI: 2,298.63 to 2,562.25) in the 75 to 79 years age group; the corresponding range in 2010 was 7.88 (95% CI: 6.54 to 9.59) to 2,274.82 (95% CI: 2,149.77 to 2,410.17). Prevalence was higher in developed versus developing nations, and the rates within each development stratum decreased between 1990 and 2010. Globally, the age-specific annual incidence rate per 100,000 in 1990 ranged from 0.89 (95% CI: 0.66 to 1.17) in 40 to 44 years age group to 176.08 (95% CI: 162.72 to 190.28) in the 75 to 79 years age group. In 2010, this range was 0.83 (95% CI: 0.61 to 1.11) to 164.57 (95% CI: 152.20 to 178.78). The highest prevalence in 1990 was in Australasia and North America high income regions: 382.65 (95% CI: 356.27 to 410.88) and 300.59 (95% CI: 280.93 to 321.54), respectively. Australasia had the highest prevalence in 2010, although the prevalence decreased to 310.27 (95% CI: 289.01 to 332.94). Regional prevalence increased in Oceania, tropical Latin America, Asia Pacific high income, Southern Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Central SSA, South Asia, Western SSA, and Central Asia. AAA

  4. Estimating the Prevalence and Awareness Rates of Hypertension in Africa: A Systematic Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Adeloye, Davies; Basquill, Catriona

    2014-01-01

    Background The burden of hypertension is high in Africa, and due to rapid population growth and ageing, the exact burden on the continent is still far from being known. We aimed to estimate the prevalence and awareness rates of hypertension in Africa based on the cut off “≥140/90 mm Hg”. Methods We conducted a systematic search of Medline, EMBASE and Global Health. Search date was set from January 1980 to December 2013. We included population-based studies on hypertension, conducted among people aged ≥15 years and providing numerical estimates on the prevalence of hypertension in Africa. Overall pooled prevalence of hypertension in mixed, rural and urban settings in Africa were estimated from reported crude prevalence rates. A meta-regression epidemiological modelling, using United Nations population demographics for the years 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2030, was applied to determine the prevalence rates and number of cases of hypertension in Africa separately for these four years. Results Our search returned 7680 publications, 92 of which met the selection criteria. The overall pooled prevalence of hypertension in Africa was 19.7% in 1990, 27.4% in 2000 and 30.8% in 2010, each with a pooled awareness rate (expressed as percentage of hypertensive cases) of 16.9%, 29.2% and 33.7%, respectively. From the modelling, over 54.6 million cases of hypertension were estimated in 1990, 92.3 million cases in 2000, 130.2 million cases in 2010, and a projected increase to 216.8 million cases of hypertension by 2030; each with an age-adjusted prevalence of 19.1% (13.9, 25.5), 24.3% (23.3, 31.6), 25.9% (23.5, 34.0), and 25.3% (24.3, 39.7), respectively. Conclusion Our findings suggest the prevalence of hypertension is increasing in Africa, and many hypertensive individuals are not aware of their condition. We hope this research will prompt appropriate policy response towards improving the awareness, control and overall management of hypertension in Africa. PMID:25090232

  5. EEG-based workload estimation across affective contexts

    PubMed Central

    Mühl, Christian; Jeunet, Camille; Lotte, Fabien

    2014-01-01

    Workload estimation from electroencephalographic signals (EEG) offers a highly sensitive tool to adapt the human–computer interaction to the user state. To create systems that reliably work in the complexity of the real world, a robustness against contextual changes (e.g., mood), has to be achieved. To study the resilience of state-of-the-art EEG-based workload classification against stress we devise a novel experimental protocol, in which we manipulated the affective context (stressful/non-stressful) while the participant solved a task with two workload levels. We recorded self-ratings, behavior, and physiology from 24 participants to validate the protocol. We test the capability of different, subject-specific workload classifiers using either frequency-domain, time-domain, or both feature varieties to generalize across contexts. We show that the classifiers are able to transfer between affective contexts, though performance suffers independent of the used feature domain. However, cross-context training is a simple and powerful remedy allowing the extraction of features in all studied feature varieties that are more resilient to task-unrelated variations in signal characteristics. Especially for frequency-domain features, across-context training is leading to a performance comparable to within-context training and testing. We discuss the significance of the result for neurophysiology-based workload detection in particular and for the construction of reliable passive brain–computer interfaces in general. PMID:24971046

  6. EEG-based workload estimation across affective contexts.

    PubMed

    Mühl, Christian; Jeunet, Camille; Lotte, Fabien

    2014-01-01

    Workload estimation from electroencephalographic signals (EEG) offers a highly sensitive tool to adapt the human-computer interaction to the user state. To create systems that reliably work in the complexity of the real world, a robustness against contextual changes (e.g., mood), has to be achieved. To study the resilience of state-of-the-art EEG-based workload classification against stress we devise a novel experimental protocol, in which we manipulated the affective context (stressful/non-stressful) while the participant solved a task with two workload levels. We recorded self-ratings, behavior, and physiology from 24 participants to validate the protocol. We test the capability of different, subject-specific workload classifiers using either frequency-domain, time-domain, or both feature varieties to generalize across contexts. We show that the classifiers are able to transfer between affective contexts, though performance suffers independent of the used feature domain. However, cross-context training is a simple and powerful remedy allowing the extraction of features in all studied feature varieties that are more resilient to task-unrelated variations in signal characteristics. Especially for frequency-domain features, across-context training is leading to a performance comparable to within-context training and testing. We discuss the significance of the result for neurophysiology-based workload detection in particular and for the construction of reliable passive brain-computer interfaces in general. PMID:24971046

  7. Estimating adjusted prevalence ratio in clustered cross-sectional epidemiological data

    PubMed Central

    Santos, Carlos Antônio ST; Fiaccone, Rosemeire L; Oliveira, Nelson F; Cunha, Sérgio; Barreto, Maurício L; do Carmo, Maria Beatriz B; Moncayo, Ana-Lucia; Rodrigues, Laura C; Cooper, Philip J; Amorim, Leila D

    2008-01-01

    Background Many epidemiologic studies report the odds ratio as a measure of association for cross-sectional studies with common outcomes. In such cases, the prevalence ratios may not be inferred from the estimated odds ratios. This paper overviews the most commonly used procedures to obtain adjusted prevalence ratios and extends the discussion to the analysis of clustered cross-sectional studies. Methods Prevalence ratios(PR) were estimated using logistic models with random effects. Their 95% confidence intervals were obtained using delta method and clustered bootstrap. The performance of these approaches was evaluated through simulation studies. Using data from two studies with health-related outcomes in children, we discuss the interpretation of the measures of association and their implications. Results The results from data analysis highlighted major differences between estimated OR and PR. Results from simulation studies indicate an improved performance of delta method compared to bootstrap when there are small number of clusters. Conclusion We recommend the use of logistic model with random effects for analysis of clustered data. The choice of method to estimate confidence intervals for PR (delta or bootstrap method) should be based on study design. PMID:19087281

  8. Using inpatient data to estimate the prevalence of Wegener's granulomatosis in China

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Xiao; Cui, Yazhou; Li, Yan; Wang, Chao; Zhao, Heng; Han, Jinxiang

    2016-01-01

    Summary China lacks a registry for most rare diseases, so specific epidemiological data on those diseases are lacking. A strategy involving the DISMOD II model was recently formulated to estimate the epidemiological parameters of rare diseases, and this strategy has been used to study several rare diseases. The current study used this strategy to estimate the prevalence of one such rare disease, Wegener's granulomatosis (WG), in China based on its incidence, mortality, and rate of remission according to the software tool DISMOD II. The incidence of WG was calculated based on inpatient data from 100 hospitals throughout China. The cause-specific mortality from WG was estimated based on data from the National Vital Statistics System of the United States and adjusted for the Chinese population. The rate of disease remission was based on the results of previous study. The current results indicated that the prevalence of WG in China is 1.94/100,000, which is slightly lower than that in Europe and the United States. The mean age at onset of WG in China was calculated to be 38.9 years for males and 39.3 years for females and the duration of disease was 28 years for both male and female patients. These figures are similar to published data from other countries. In conclusion, the DISMOD II model was used to estimate the prevalence of WG in China, providing a basis to evaluate the potential disease burden and orphan drug use by patients with WG. The DISMOD II model could be used to estimate the prevalence of other rare diseases. PMID:26989646

  9. Comfort in big numbers: Does over-estimation of doping prevalence in others indicate self-involvement?

    PubMed Central

    Petróczi, Andrea; Mazanov, Jason; Nepusz, Tamás; Backhouse, Susan H; Naughton, Declan P

    2008-01-01

    Background The 'False Consensus Effect' (FCE), by which people perceive their own actions as relatively common behaviour, might be exploited to gauge whether a person engages in controversial behaviour, such as performance enhancing drug (PED) use. Hypothesis It is assumed that people's own behaviour, owing to the FCE, affects their estimation of the prevalence of that behaviour. It is further hypothesised that a person's estimate of PED population use is a reliable indicator of the doping behaviour of that person, in lieu of self-reports. Testing the hypothesis Over- or underestimation is calculated from investigating known groups (i.e. users vs. non-users), using a short questionnaire, and a known prevalence rate from official reports or sample evidence. It is proposed that sample evidence from self-reported behaviour should be verified using objective biochemical analyses. In order to find proofs of concept for the existence of false consensus, a pilot study was conducted. Data were collected among competitive UK student-athletes (n = 124) using a web-based anonymous questionnaire. User (n = 9) vs. non-user (n = 76) groups were established using self-reported information on doping use and intention to use PEDs in hypothetical situations. Observed differences in the mean estimation of doping made by the user group exceeded the estimation made by the non-user group (35.11% vs. 15.34% for general doping and 34.25% vs. 26.30% in hypothetical situations, respectively), thus providing preliminary evidence in support of the FCE concept in relation to doping. Implications of the hypothesis The presence of the FCE in estimating doping prevalence or behaviour in others suggests that the FCE based approach may be an avenue for developing an indirect self-report mechanism for PED use behaviour. The method may be successfully adapted to the estimation of prevalence of behaviours where direct self-reports are assumed to be distorted by socially desirable responding. Thus this

  10. Thermoregulatory behaviour affects prevalence of chytrid fungal infection in a wild population of Panamanian golden frogs.

    PubMed

    Richards-Zawacki, Corinne L

    2010-02-22

    Predicting how climate change will affect disease dynamics requires an understanding of how the environment affects host-pathogen interactions. For amphibians, global declines and extinctions have been linked to a pathogenic chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Using a combination of body temperature measurements and disease assays conducted before and after the arrival of B. dendrobatidis, this study tested the hypothesis that body temperature affects the prevalence of infection in a wild population of Panamanian golden frogs (Atelopus zeteki). The timing of first detection of the fungus was consistent with that of a wave of epidemic infections spreading south and eastward through Central America. During the epidemic, many golden frogs modified their thermoregulatory behaviour, raising body temperatures above their normal set point. Odds of infection decreased with increasing body temperature, demonstrating that even slight environmental or behavioural changes have the potential to affect an individual's vulnerability to infection. The thermal dependency of the relationship between B. dendrobatidis and its amphibian hosts demonstrates how the progression of an epidemic can be influenced by complex interactions between host and pathogen phenotypes and the environments in which they are found. PMID:19864287

  11. Students' estimates of the prevalence of drug use: evidence for a false consensus effect.

    PubMed

    Wolfson, S

    2000-09-01

    False consensus, or the tendency to overestimate the extent to which others share one's own attitudes and behaviors, was investigated in a study of 348 university students classified as non-drug users, cannabis-only users, or amphetamine + cannabis users. Participants estimated the prevalence of cannabis and amphetamine use among students. Cannabis and amphetamine users made significantly higher estimates of cannabis use among students than did nonusers, whereas amphetamine users gave significantly higher estimates of amphetamine use than nonusers and cannabis-only users. Correlations between estimates of use among friends and other students were significantly positive for both drugs. The results suggest that students are motivated to overestimate the commonality of their own position on drug use and that their estimates may also be influenced by selective exposure. PMID:10998955

  12. Reliability of Nationwide Prevalence Estimates of Dementia: A Critical Appraisal Based on Brazilian Surveys

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background The nationwide dementia prevalence is usually calculated by applying the results of local surveys to countries’ populations. To evaluate the reliability of such estimations in developing countries, we chose Brazil as an example. We carried out a systematic review of dementia surveys, ascertained their risk of bias, and present the best estimate of occurrence of dementia in Brazil. Methods and Findings We carried out an electronic search of PubMed, Latin-American databases, and a Brazilian thesis database for surveys focusing on dementia prevalence in Brazil. The systematic review was registered at PROSPERO (CRD42014008815). Among the 35 studies found, 15 analyzed population-based random samples. However, most of them utilized inadequate criteria for diagnostics. Six studies without these limitations were further analyzed to assess the risk of selection, attrition, outcome and population bias as well as several statistical issues. All the studies presented moderate or high risk of bias in at least two domains due to the following features: high non-response, inaccurate cut-offs, and doubtful accuracy of the examiners. Two studies had limited external validity due to high rates of illiteracy or low income. The three studies with adequate generalizability and the lowest risk of bias presented a prevalence of dementia between 7.1% and 8.3% among subjects aged 65 years and older. However, after adjustment for accuracy of screening, the best available evidence points towards a figure between 15.2% and 16.3%. Conclusions The risk of bias may strongly limit the generalizability of dementia prevalence estimates in developing countries. Extrapolations that have already been made for Brazil and Latin America were based on a prevalence that should have been adjusted for screening accuracy or not used at all due to severe bias. Similar evaluations regarding other developing countries are needed in order to verify the scope of these limitations. PMID:26131563

  13. The impact of proposed changes to ICD-11 on estimates of PTSD prevalence and comorbidity.

    PubMed

    Wisco, Blair E; Miller, Mark W; Wolf, Erika J; Kilpatrick, Dean; Resnick, Heidi S; Badour, Christal L; Marx, Brian P; Keane, Terence M; Rosen, Raymond C; Friedman, Matthew J

    2016-06-30

    The World Health Organization's posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) work group has published a proposal for the forthcoming edition of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11) that would yield a very different diagnosis relative to DSM-5. This study examined the impact of the proposed ICD-11 changes on PTSD prevalence relative to the ICD-10 and DSM-5 definitions and also evaluated the extent to which these changes would accomplish the stated aim of reducing the comorbidity associated with PTSD. Diagnostic prevalence estimates were compared using a U.S. national community sample and two U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs clinical samples. The ICD-11 definition yielded prevalence estimates 10-30% lower than DSM-5 and 25% and 50% lower than ICD-10 with no reduction in the prevalence of common comorbidities. Findings suggest that by constraining the diagnosis to a narrower set of symptoms, the proposed ICD-11 criteria set would substantially reduce the number of individuals with the disorder. These findings raise doubt about the extent to which the ICD-11 proposal would achieve the aim of reducing comorbidity associated with PTSD and highlight the public health and policy implications of such a redefinition. PMID:27124207

  14. Evaluation of geospatial methods to generate subnational HIV prevalence estimates for local level planning

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Objective: There is evidence of substantial subnational variation in the HIV epidemic. However, robust spatial HIV data are often only available at high levels of geographic aggregation and not at the finer resolution needed for decision making. Therefore, spatial analysis methods that leverage available data to provide local estimates of HIV prevalence may be useful. Such methods exist but have not been formally compared when applied to HIV. Design/methods: Six candidate methods – including those used by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS to generate maps and a Bayesian geostatistical approach applied to other diseases – were used to generate maps and subnational estimates of HIV prevalence across three countries using cluster level data from household surveys. Two approaches were used to assess the accuracy of predictions: internal validation, whereby a proportion of input data is held back (test dataset) to challenge predictions; and comparison with location-specific data from household surveys in earlier years. Results: Each of the methods can generate usefully accurate predictions of prevalence at unsampled locations, with the magnitude of the error in predictions similar across approaches. However, the Bayesian geostatistical approach consistently gave marginally the strongest statistical performance across countries and validation procedures. Conclusions: Available methods may be able to furnish estimates of HIV prevalence at finer spatial scales than the data currently allow. The subnational variation revealed can be integrated into planning to ensure responsiveness to the spatial features of the epidemic. The Bayesian geostatistical approach is a promising strategy for integrating HIV data to generate robust local estimates. PMID:26919737

  15. Prevalence and allele frequency estimation of bovine leukocyte adhesion deficiency (BLAD) in Holstein-Friesian cattle in Japan.

    PubMed

    Nagahata, H; Miura, T; Tagaki, K; Ohtake, M; Noda, H; Yasuda, T; Nioka, K

    1997-04-01

    Blood samples from 796 Holstein dairy cows in 20 herds from 6 districts in Japan from June 1994 to August 1995 were examined to determine whether they were BLAD-free, BLAD carriers, or BLAD-affected by use of DNA-polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis. The usage of semen of confirmed BLAD-carriers for artificial insemination in the Hokkaido district and two selected dairy farms was examined to estimate the gene frequency of BLAD carriers of sires. BLAD-carrier prevalence in 20 herds (796 cows, over 2.5 years old) ranged from 0 to 23.5%, and the mean BLAD-carrier prevalence was 8.1%. The BLAD-carrier prevalence in 10 herds (363 cows) in which the occurrence of BLAD was not detected by the DNA-PCR test ranged from 0 to 12.5% with a mean of 5.4%. The BLAD-carrier prevalence in 10 herds (433 cows) in which the occurrence of BLAD was confirmed by DNA-PCR analysis ranged from 2.6 to 23.5% with a mean of 10.8%, and these values were significantly (P < 0.05) higher than those of dairy herds in which the occurrence of BLAD was not detected. The age distribution in BLAD carriers in these cows ranged from 2.5 to 11 years. The mean gene frequencies of BLAD among 796 cows from 20 herds and 433 cows from 10 herds in which the occurrence of BLAD was detected were 0.041 and 0.054, respectively. The proportional usage of semen of BLAD carriers for artificial insemination in the Hokkaido district in 1992 was 12.6%, and its gene frequency was 0.058. On two selected farms in which higher BLAD-carrier rates were detected, the prevalences were 35.5% and 25.8%, and their gene frequencies were 0.177 and 0.129, respectively. The occurrence of BLAD-affected in Holstein dairy cattle was estimated to be 0.16-0.31% at birth in Japan without genetic control. PMID:9152929

  16. Estimated trends in the prevalence of heroin addiction in Switzerland. A multiple-indicator approach.

    PubMed

    Maag, Verena

    2003-10-01

    Data on the prevalence of heroin addiction have considerable relevance in the field of public health as a means of evaluating measures aimed at improving the lives of the individuals concerned. The number of heroin addicts in Switzerland was estimated by six different methods based on various data sources. This resulted in an overall estimate for the reference year 1997 ranging from a minimum of 24,000 to a maximum of 35,000 heroin addicts. In the 1990s, the trend in the prevalence of heroin addiction was characterised by a rapid rise up to 1993/94 followed by a gradual decline. The increasing medicalisation (focus on treatment rather than on punishment) of Switzerland's heroin problem has therefore not translated into a clear downward trend in the estimated prevalence of heroin addiction; however, the data for the various sub-groups lend plausibility to the assumption that this population is more integrated, less conspicuous and receiving better medical care. PMID:12970586

  17. Variable abattoir conditions affect Salmonella enterica prevalence and meat quality in swine and pork.

    PubMed

    Hurd, H S; Gailey, J K; McKean, J D; Griffith, R W

    2005-01-01

    Research suggests that abattoir holding pens pose significant Salmonella enterica risk to swine immediately preharvest. The goal of this study was to evaluate those factors related to holding that increased the prevalence of S. enterica in swine at slaughter. To accomplish this goal, we focused on holding time and flooring. Our objectives were to (1) compare Salmonella enterica prevalence among pigs held for short (15-45 min) versus long (up to 4 h) periods before slaughter; and (2) determine the impact of flooring (slatted vs. concrete) as it relates to the prevalence of S. enterica. The study consisted of seven repetitions at a large volume (11,000 head/day) Midwest abattoir. Each repetition consisted of one truck load of pigs (n = 170) sorted into one of three groups: (1) animals held for a short time (15-45 min) on solid floors (short-hold); (2) animals held for 4 +/- 0.5 h on slatted floors; and (3) animals held for 4 +/- 0.5 h on solid concrete floors. At slaughter, samples were collected from 30 pigs in each group. Cecal contents (20 mL), feces (20 g), and the ileocecal lymph node were cultured for S. enterica. Additionally, the effect of holding time on meat quality parameters (loin pH at 35 min and 6 h, color, drip loss) was evaluated for the first four replicates. The proportion of S. enterica-positive samples was highest (p < 0.05) in the cecum of pigs held on solid concrete floors (72.4%), and slightly less for pigs held on slatted floors (63.3%). Animals held for less than 45 min before slaughter demonstrated the lowest proportion of S. enterica-positive samples (52.9%). The pig prevalence, as measured by any one of the three samples being positive, was significantly different (p < 0.05) between animals held on solid floors (81%) and those animals held for 45 min or less before slaughter (69%). Meat quality, as measured by multiple parameters, was adversely affected by lack of a rest period. The mean 24-h pH was significantly lower for the short

  18. Estimating the prevalence of obstetric fistula: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Obstetric fistula is a severe condition which has devastating consequences for a woman’s life. The estimation of the burden of fistula at the population level has been impaired by the rarity of diagnosis and the lack of rigorous studies. This study was conducted to determine the prevalence and incidence of fistula in low and middle income countries. Methods Six databases were searched, involving two separate searches: one on fistula specifically and one on broader maternal and reproductive morbidities. Studies including estimates of incidence and prevalence of fistula at the population level were included. We conducted meta-analyses of prevalence of fistula among women of reproductive age and the incidence of fistula among recently pregnant women. Results Nineteen studies were included in this review. The pooled prevalence in population-based studies was 0.29 (95% CI 0.00, 1.07) fistula per 1000 women of reproductive age in all regions. Separated by region we found 1.57 (95% CI 1.16, 2.06) in sub Saharan Africa and South Asia, 1.60 (95% CI 1.16, 2.10) per 1000 women of reproductive age in sub Saharan Africa and 1.20 (95% CI 0.10, 3.54) per 1000 in South Asia. The pooled incidence was 0.09 (95% CI 0.01, 0.25) per 1000 recently pregnant women. Conclusions Our study is the most comprehensive study of the burden of fistula to date. Our findings suggest that the prevalence of fistula is lower than previously reported. The low burden of fistula should not detract from their public health importance, however, given the preventability of the condition, and the devastating consequences of fistula. PMID:24373152

  19. Factors affecting the estimate of primary production from space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Balch, W. M.; Byrne, C. F.

    1994-01-01

    Remote sensing of primary production in the euphotic zone has been based mostly on visible-band and water-leaving radiance measured with the coastal zone color scanner. There are some robust, simple relationships for calculating integral production based on surface measurements, but they also require knowledge for photoadaptive parameters such as maximum photosynthesis which currently cannot be obtained from spave. A 17,000-station data set is used to show that space-based estimates of maximum photosynthesis could improve predictions of psi, the water column light utiliztion index, which is an important term in many primary productivity models. Temperature is also examined as a factor for predicting hydrographic structure and primary production. A simple model is used to relate temperature and maximum photosynthesis; the model incorporates (1) the positive relationship between maximum photosynthesis and temperature and (2) the strongly negative relationship between temperature and nitrate in the ocean (which directly affects maximum growth rates via nitrogen limitation). Since these two factors relate to carbon and nitrogen, 'balanced carbon/nitrogen assimilation' was calculated using the Redfield ratio, It is expected that the relationship between maximum balanced carbon assimilation versus temperature is concave-down, with the peak dependent on nitrate uptake kinetics, temperature-nitrate relationships,a nd the carbon chlorophyll ration. These predictions were compared with the sea truth data. The minimum turnover time for nitrate was also calculated using this approach. Lastly, sea surface temperature gradients were used to predict the slope of isotherms (a proxy for the slope of isopycnals in many waters). Sea truth data show that at size scales of several hundred kilometers, surface temperature gradients can provide information on the slope of isotherms in the top 200 m of the water column. This is directly relevant to the supply of nutrients into the surface

  20. Incidence and Estimated Prevalence of Endometriosis and Adenomyosis in Northeast Italy: A Data Linkage Study.

    PubMed

    Morassutto, Caterina; Monasta, Lorenzo; Ricci, Giuseppe; Barbone, Fabio; Ronfani, Luca

    2016-01-01

    Despite being quite frequent and having serious implications in terms of symptomatology and fertility, data on incidence and prevalence of endometriosis and adenomyosis following gold standard definitions are dramatically lacking. The average time from onset of symptoms to diagnosis in industrialized countries still ranges from five to ten years. Using the regional centralized data linkage system, we calculated incidence and prevalence of endometriosis and adenomyosis in the female population of Friuli Venezia Giulia region, Italy, for the years 2011-2013. Cases were defined as new diagnoses from hospital discharge records, following procedures allowing direct visualization for endometriosis and hysterectomy for adenomyosis, with or without histological confirmation. Diagnoses were considered "new" after verifying women had not been diagnosed in the previous ten years. Incidence of endometriosis and adenomyosis in women aged 15-50 years is 0.14%. Prevalence, estimated from incidence, is 2.00%. Adenomyosis, representing 28% of all diagnoses, becomes increasingly prevalent after the age of 50 years. Our results shows how the study of both endometriosis and adenomyosis should not be limited to women of premenopausal age. Further efforts are needed to sensitize women and health professional, and to find new data linkage possibilities to identify undiagnosed cases. PMID:27101396

  1. Incidence and Estimated Prevalence of Endometriosis and Adenomyosis in Northeast Italy: A Data Linkage Study

    PubMed Central

    Ricci, Giuseppe; Barbone, Fabio; Ronfani, Luca

    2016-01-01

    Despite being quite frequent and having serious implications in terms of symptomatology and fertility, data on incidence and prevalence of endometriosis and adenomyosis following gold standard definitions are dramatically lacking. The average time from onset of symptoms to diagnosis in industrialized countries still ranges from five to ten years. Using the regional centralized data linkage system, we calculated incidence and prevalence of endometriosis and adenomyosis in the female population of Friuli Venezia Giulia region, Italy, for the years 2011–2013. Cases were defined as new diagnoses from hospital discharge records, following procedures allowing direct visualization for endometriosis and hysterectomy for adenomyosis, with or without histological confirmation. Diagnoses were considered “new” after verifying women had not been diagnosed in the previous ten years. Incidence of endometriosis and adenomyosis in women aged 15–50 years is 0.14%. Prevalence, estimated from incidence, is 2.00%. Adenomyosis, representing 28% of all diagnoses, becomes increasingly prevalent after the age of 50 years. Our results shows how the study of both endometriosis and adenomyosis should not be limited to women of premenopausal age. Further efforts are needed to sensitize women and health professional, and to find new data linkage possibilities to identify undiagnosed cases. PMID:27101396

  2. National Malaria Prevalence in Cambodia: Microscopy Versus Polymerase Chain Reaction Estimates.

    PubMed

    Lek, Dysoley; Popovici, Jean; Ariey, Frederic; Vinjamuri, Seshu Babu; Meek, Sylvia; Bruce, Jan; Taylor, Walter R J; Socheat, Duong; Menard, Didier; Rogers, William O

    2016-09-01

    Accurate information regarding malaria prevalence at national level is required to design and assess malaria control/elimination efforts. Although many comparisons of microscopy and polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based methods have been conducted, there is little published literature covering such comparisons in southeast Asia especially at the national level. Both microscopic examination and PCR detection were performed on blood films and dried blood spots samples collected from 8,067 individuals enrolled in a nationwide, stratified, multistage, cluster sampling malaria prevalence survey conducted in Cambodia in 2007. The overall malaria prevalence and prevalence rates of Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax, and Plasmodium malariae infections estimated by microscopy (N = 8,067) were 2.74% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.39-3.12%), 1.81% (95% CI: 1.53-2.13%), 1.14% (95% CI: 0.92-1.40%), and 0.01% (95% CI: 0.003-0.07%), respectively. The overall malaria prevalence based on PCR detection (N = 7,718) was almost 2.5-fold higher (6.31%, 95% CI: 5.76-6.89%, P < 0.00001). This difference was significantly more pronounced for P. falciparum (4.40%, 95% CI: 3.95-4.90%, P < 0.00001) compared with P. vivax (1.89%, 95% CI: 1.60-2.22%, P < 0.001) and P. malariae infections (0.22%, 95% CI: 0.13-0.35%, P < 0.0001). The significant proportion of microscopy-negative but PCR-positive individuals (289/7,491, 3.85%) suggest microscopic examination frequently underestimated malaria infections and that active case detection based on microscopy may miss a significant reservoir of infection, especially in low-transmission settings. PMID:27402511

  3. How irrigation affects soil erosion estimates of RUSLE2

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    RUSLE2 is a robust and computationally efficient conservation planning tool that estimates soil, climate, and land management effects on sheet and rill erosion and sediment delivery from hillslopes, and also estimates the size distribution and clay enrichment of sediment delivered to the channel sys...

  4. A likelihood estimation of HIV incidence incorporating information on past prevalence

    PubMed Central

    Gabaitiri, Lesego; Mwambi, Henry G.; Lagakos, Stephen W.; Pagano, Marcello

    2014-01-01

    SUMMARY The prevalence and incidence of an epidemic are basic characteristics that are essential for monitoring its impact, determining public health priorities, assessing the effect of interventions, and for planning purposes. A direct approach for estimating incidence is to undertake a longitudinal cohort study where a representative sample of disease free individuals are followed for a specified period of time and new cases of infection are observed and recorded. This approach is expensive, time consuming and prone to bias due to loss-to-follow-up. An alternative approach is to estimate incidence from cross sectional surveys using biomarkers to identify persons recently infected as in (Brookmeyer and Quinn, 1995; Janssen et al., 1998). This paper builds on the work of Janssen et al. (1998) and extends the theoretical framework proposed by Balasubramanian and Lagakos (2010) by incorporating information on past prevalence and deriving maximum likelihood estimators of incidence. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated through a simulation study, and its use is illustrated using data from the Botswana AIDS Impact (BAIS) III survey of 2008. PMID:25197147

  5. Prevalence Estimation and Validation of New Instruments in Psychiatric Research: An Application of Latent Class Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pence, Brian Wells; Miller, William C.; Gaynes, Bradley N.

    2009-01-01

    Prevalence and validation studies rely on imperfect reference standard (RS) diagnostic instruments that can bias prevalence and test characteristic estimates. The authors illustrate 2 methods to account for RS misclassification. Latent class analysis (LCA) combines information from multiple imperfect measures of an unmeasurable latent condition to…

  6. Estimating the number of helminthic infections in the Republic of Cameroon from data on infection prevalence in schoolchildren.

    PubMed Central

    Brooker, S.; Donnelly, C. A.; Guyatt, H. L.

    2000-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: The prevalence of infection with helminths is markedly dependent on age, yet estimates of the total number of infections are typically based on data only from school-aged children. Such estimates, although useful for advocacy, provide inadequate information for planning control programmes and for quantifying the burden of disease. Using readily available data on the prevalence of infection in schoolchildren, the relation between the prevalence of infection in school-aged children and prevalence in the wider community can be adequately described using species-specific models. This paper explores the reliability of this approach to predict the prevalence infection in the community and provides a model for estimating the total number of people infected in the Republic of Cameroon. METHODS: Using data on the prevalence of helminthic infection in school-aged children in Cameroon, the prevalence of infection in pre-school children and adults was estimated from species-specific linear and logistic regression models developed previously. The model predictions were then used to estimate the number of people infected in each district in each age group in Cameroon. RESULTS: For Cameroon, if only the prevalence of infection in schoolchildren is used, the number of people infected with each helminthic species will be overestimated by up to 32% when compared with the estimates provided by the species-specific models. The calculation of confidence intervals supports the statistical reliability of the model since a narrow range of parameter estimates is evident. Furthermore, this work suggests that estimation of national prevalence of infection and the number infected will be enhanced if data are stratified by age; this model represents a useful planning tool for obtaining more accurate estimates. Estimates based on data aggregated from three geographical levels (district, regional, and national) show that summarizing prevalence data at the national level will result

  7. Estimating family planning coverage from contraceptive prevalence using national household surveys

    PubMed Central

    Barros, Aluisio J. D.; Boerma, Ties; Hosseinpoor, Ahmad R.; Restrepo-Méndez, María C.; Wong, Kerry L. M.; Victora, Cesar G.

    2015-01-01

    Background Contraception is one of the most important health interventions currently available and yet, many women and couples still do not have reliable access to modern contraceptives. The best indicator for monitoring family planning is the proportion of women using contraception among those who need it. This indicator is frequently called demand for family planning satisfied and we argue that it should be called family planning coverage (FPC). This indicator is complex to calculate and requires a considerable number of questions to be included in a household survey. Objectives We propose a model that can predict FPC from a much simpler indicator – contraceptive use prevalence – for situations where it cannot be derived directly. Design Using 197 Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and Demographic and Health Surveys from 82 countries, we explored least-squares regression models that could be used to predict FPC. Non-linearity was expected in this situation and we used a fractional polynomial approach to find the best fitting model. We also explored the effect of calendar time and of wealth on the models explored. Results Given the high correlation between the variables involved in FPC, we managed to derive a relatively simple model that depends only on contraceptive use prevalence but explains 95% of the variability of the outcome, with high precision for the estimated regression line. We also show that the relationship between the two variables has not changed with time. A concordance analysis showed agreement between observed and fitted results within a range of ±9 percentage points. Conclusions We show that it is possible to obtain fairly good estimates of FPC using only contraceptive prevalence as a predictor, a strategy that is useful in situations where it is not possible to estimate FPC directly. PMID:26562141

  8. Prior task experience affects temporal prediction and estimation

    PubMed Central

    Tobin, Simon; Grondin, Simon

    2015-01-01

    It has been shown that prior experience with a task improves temporal prediction, even when the amount of prior experience with the task is often limited. The present study targeted the role of extensive training on temporal prediction. Expert and intermediate runners had to predict the time of a 5 km running competition. Furthermore, after the race’s completion, participants had to estimate their running time so that it could be compared with the predicted time. Results show that expert runners were more accurate than intermediate runners for both predicting and estimating their running time. Furthermore, only expert runners had an estimation that was more accurate than their initial prediction. The results confirm the role of prior task experience in both temporal prediction and estimation. PMID:26217261

  9. National HIV prevalence estimates for sub-Saharan Africa: controlling selection bias with Heckman-type selection models

    PubMed Central

    Hogan, Daniel R; Salomon, Joshua A; Canning, David; Hammitt, James K; Zaslavsky, Alan M; Bärnighausen, Till

    2012-01-01

    Objectives Population-based HIV testing surveys have become central to deriving estimates of national HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa. However, limited participation in these surveys can lead to selection bias. We control for selection bias in national HIV prevalence estimates using a novel approach, which unlike conventional imputation can account for selection on unobserved factors. Methods For 12 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted from 2001 to 2009 (N=138 300), we predict HIV status among those missing a valid HIV test with Heckman-type selection models, which allow for correlation between infection status and participation in survey HIV testing. We compare these estimates with conventional ones and introduce a simulation procedure that incorporates regression model parameter uncertainty into confidence intervals. Results Selection model point estimates of national HIV prevalence were greater than unadjusted estimates for 10 of 12 surveys for men and 11 of 12 surveys for women, and were also greater than the majority of estimates obtained from conventional imputation, with significantly higher HIV prevalence estimates for men in Cote d'Ivoire 2005, Mali 2006 and Zambia 2007. Accounting for selective non-participation yielded 95% confidence intervals around HIV prevalence estimates that are wider than those obtained with conventional imputation by an average factor of 4.5. Conclusions Our analysis indicates that national HIV prevalence estimates for many countries in sub-Saharan African are more uncertain than previously thought, and may be underestimated in several cases, underscoring the need for increasing participation in HIV surveys. Heckman-type selection models should be included in the set of tools used for routine estimation of HIV prevalence. PMID:23172342

  10. Population-level prevalence estimate and characteristics of psychiatric disability among Chinese adults.

    PubMed

    Li, Ning; Chen, Gong; Du, Wei; Song, Xinming; Zhang, Lei; Zheng, Xiaoying

    2011-11-01

    Psychiatric disability is a population health problem, and understanding its magnitude is essential to informing population health policies. This paper aims to describe the prevalence rates, causes, and severity of psychiatric disability in Chinese adults, and to explore daily activities and social functions for people with psychiatric disability. We used the second China National Sample Survey on Disability, comprising 2,526,145 persons from 771,797 households. Identification and classification for psychiatric disability was based on consensus manuals. We used standard weighting procedures to construct sample weights considering the multistage stratified cluster sampling survey scheme. Population weighted prevalence and 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) were evaluated. An estimate of 8 million adults with psychiatric disability was identified. The weighted prevalence rate of psychiatric disability was 8.14 per 1000 people (95% CI, 7.95-8.33). More rural residents suffered from psychiatric disability than their urban counterparts, and more females had psychiatric disability than males. Schizophrenia, schizotypal and delusional disorders accounted for more than half of the psychiatric disability in Chinese adults. People with psychiatric disability had more severe difficulties in most daily activities and social functions than in people with other disabilities. This study demonstrates psychiatric disability causes social burden to the Chinese communities. Strategies including case identification, treatment, and rehabilitation should be developed and countermeasures are warranted for females and rural residents to reduce the burden caused by psychiatric disability. PMID:21794875

  11. [Estimation of spur dike-affected fish habitat area].

    PubMed

    Ray-Shyan, Wu; Yan-Ru, Chen; Yi-Liang, Ge

    2012-04-01

    Based on the HEC-RAS and River 2D modes, and taking 5% change rate of weighted usable area (WUA) as the threshold to define the spur dike- affected area of target fish species Acrossocheilus paradoxus in Fazi River in Taiwan, this paper studied the affected area of the fish habitat by spur dike, and, in combining with the references about the installations of spur dikes in Taiwan in recent 10 years, analyzed the relative importance of related affecting factors such as dike height, dike length (water block rate), average slope gradient of river way, single or double spur dike, and flow discharge. In spite of the length of the dike, the affected area in downstream was farther, and was about 2-6 times as large as that in upstream. The ratio of the affected area in downstream / upstream decreased with increasing slope gradient, but increased with increasing dike length and flow discharge. When the discharge was approximate to 10 years return periods, the ratio of the affected area would be close to a constant of 2. Building double spur dike would produce a better WUA than building single spur dike. PMID:22803455

  12. Estimated BVDV-prevalence, -contact and -vaccine use in dairy herds in Northern Portugal.

    PubMed

    Niza-Ribeiro, J; Pereira, Adelaide; Souza, João; Madeira, Helena; Barbosa, Abigaíl; Afonso, Carla

    2005-11-15

    A study to evaluate BVDV-prevalence, recent -contact and -vaccine use in dairy herds in the "Entre Douro e Minho" (EDM) region in North Portugal was carried out in 124 dairy herds in 2003. Herds were visited to ascertain BVDV-vaccine use and to collect a bulk tank milk (BTM) sample and serum from 1268 cattle to analyse BVDV-antibodies using an NS2-3 ELISA. Fifty-three percent of farmers used inactivated BVDV-vaccines whilst the remaining farmers were not presently using BVDV-vaccines. BMT-antibody results included 35% positives, 25% negative and 39% inconclusive, and were similar in vaccinated and non-vaccinated herds (p>0.05) and allowed estimating a 10% BVDV herd-prevalence from prior knowledge of the relationship between BMT-antibody results and probability of PI cattle in the herd. Overall individual seroprevalence was 27% and was 23% in non-vaccinated and 36% in vaccinated cattle (p<0.05). Contact of the herd with BVDV was assessed according to seroprevalence in young and adult cattle in the herd and it was estimated that 35% of herds were infected or had recent contact with BVDV, 40% were not infected and did not have recent contact with BVDV and the BVDV-infection and -contact status of remaining herds was undetermined. The results from this study indicate BVDV is endemic and BVDV-vaccines are widespread in the dairy-cattle population in EDM region in Portugal. PMID:16216353

  13. The 2005 Workbook: an improved tool for estimating HIV prevalence in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics

    PubMed Central

    Lyerla, R; Gouws, E; García‐Calleja, J M; Zaniewski, E

    2006-01-01

    Objective This paper describes improvements and updates to an established approach to making epidemiological estimates of HIV prevalence in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics. Methods The structure of the software used to make estimates is briefly described, with particular attention to changes and improvements. Discussion The approach focuses on identifying populations which, through their behaviour, are at high risk of infection with HIV or who are exposed through the risk behaviour of their sexual partners. Estimates of size and HIV prevalence of these populations allow the total number of HIV infected people in a country or region to be estimated. Major changes in the software focus on the move away from short term projections and towards developing an epidemiological curve that more accurately represents the change in prevalence of HIV over time. The software continues to provide an output file for use in the Spectrum software so as to estimate the demographic impact of HIV infection at country level. PMID:16735292

  14. Lobomycosis in bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) from the Indian River Lagoon, Florida: estimation of prevalence, temporal trends, and spatial distribution.

    PubMed

    Murdoch, M Elizabeth; Reif, John S; Mazzoil, Marilyn; McCulloch, Stephen D; Fair, Patricia A; Bossart, Gregory D

    2008-09-01

    Lobomycosis (lacaziosis) is a chronic fungal disease of the skin that affects only dolphins and humans. Previous studies have shown a high prevalence of lobomycosis in bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) from the Indian River Lagoon, Florida (IRL). We studied the occurrence and distribution of lobomycosis in the IRL using photo-identification survey data collected between 1996 and 2006. Our objectives were to (1) determine the sensitivity and specificity of photo-identification for diagnosis of lobomycosis in free-ranging dolphins; (2) determine the spatial distribution of lobomycosis in the IRL; and (3) assess temporal patterns of occurrence. Photographs from 704 distinctly marked dolphins were reviewed for skin lesions compatible with lobomycosis. The presumptive diagnosis was validated by comparing the results of photographic analysis with physical examination and histologic examination of lesion biopsies in 102 dolphins captured and released during a health assessment and 3 stranded dolphins. Twelve of 16 confirmed cases were identified previously by photography, a sensitivity of 75%. Among 89 dolphins without disease, all 89 were considered negative, a specificity of 100%. The prevalence of lobomycosis estimated from photographic data was 6.8% (48/704). Spatial distribution was determined by dividing the IRL into six segments based on hydrodynamics and geographic features. The prevalence ranged from <1% in the Mosquito Lagoon to 16.9% in the south Indian River. The incidence of the disease did not increase during the study period, indicating that the disease is endemic, rather than emerging. In summary, photo-identification is a useful tool to monitor the course of individual and population health for this enigmatic disease. PMID:18712442

  15. How Does Calibration Timing and Seasonality Affect Item Parameter Estimates?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wyse, Adam E.; Babcock, Ben

    2016-01-01

    Continuously administered examination programs, particularly credentialing programs that require graduation from educational programs, often experience seasonality where distributions of examine ability may differ over time. Such seasonality may affect the quality of important statistical processes, such as item response theory (IRT) item…

  16. Preparation for horizontal or vertical dimensions affects the right-left prevalence effect.

    PubMed

    Nishimura, Akio; Yokosawa, Kazuhiko

    2007-10-01

    When stimulus and response simultaneously vary in both horizontal and vertical dimensions, the stimulus-response compatibility effect is often larger for the horizontal dimension. We investigated the role of preparation for each dimension in this right-left prevalence. In Experiment 1, tasks based on horizontal and vertical dimensions were mixed in random order, and the relevant dimension in each trial was cued with a variable cue-target stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA). A right-left prevalence effect was observed only when participants prepared for the upcoming task. Experiment 2 replicated the absence of the prevalence effect for the simultaneous presentation of cue and target using a fixed SOA of 0 msec. In Experiment 3, the right-left prevalence emerged with a 0-msec SOA when participants prepared for e achdimension basedon its frequency. These resultssuggest that participants' internal set can be greater for the horizontal dimension, leading to the right-left prevalence effect. PMID:18038960

  17. Wide variation in estimates of global prevalence and burden of chronic hepatitis B and C infection cited in published literature.

    PubMed

    Basnayake, S K; Easterbrook, P J

    2016-07-01

    To evaluate the extent of heterogeneity in global estimates of chronic hepatitis B (HBV) and C (HCV) cited in the published literature, we undertook a systematic review of the published literature. We identified articles from 2010 to 2014 that had cited global estimates for at least one of ten indicators [prevalence and numbers infected with HBV, HCV, HIV-HBV or HIV-HCV co-infection, and mortality (number of deaths annually) for HBV and HCV]. Overall, 488 articles were retrieved: 239 articles cited a HBV-related global estimate [prevalence (n = 12), number infected (n = 193) and number of annual deaths (n = 82)]; 280 articles had HCV-related global estimates [prevalence (n = 86), number infected (n = 203) and number of annual deaths (n = 31)]; 31 had estimates on both HBV and HCV; 54 had HIV-HBV co-infection estimates [prevalence (n = 42) and number co-infected (n = 12)]; and 68 had estimates for HIV-HCV co-infection [prevalence (n = 40) and number co-infected (n = 28)]. There was considerable heterogeneity in the estimates cited and also a lack of consistency in the terminology used. Although 40% of 488 articles cited WHO as the source of the estimate, many of these were from outdated or secondary sources. Our findings highlight the importance of clear and consistent communication from WHO and other global health agencies on current consensus estimates of hepatitis B and C burden and prevalence, the need for standardisation in their citation, and for regular updates. PMID:27028545

  18. Comparison of Prevalence- and Smoking Impact Ratio-Based Methods of Estimating Smoking-Attributable Fractions of Deaths

    PubMed Central

    Kong, Kyoung Ae; Jung-Choi, Kyung-Hee; Lim, Dohee; Lee, Hye Ah; Lee, Won Kyung; Baik, Sun Jung; Park, Su Hyun; Park, Hyesook

    2016-01-01

    Background Smoking is a major modifiable risk factor for premature mortality. Estimating the smoking-attributable burden is important for public health policy. Typically, prevalence- or smoking impact ratio (SIR)-based methods are used to derive estimates, but there is controversy over which method is more appropriate for country-specific estimates. We compared smoking-attributable fractions (SAFs) of deaths estimated by these two methods. Methods To estimate SAFs in 2012, we used several different prevalence-based approaches using no lag and 10- and 20-year lags. For the SIR-based method, we obtained lung cancer mortality rates from the Korean Cancer Prevention Study (KCPS) and from the United States-based Cancer Prevention Study-II (CPS-II). The relative risks for the diseases associated with smoking were also obtained from these cohort studies. Results For males, SAFs obtained using KCPS-derived SIRs were similar to those obtained using prevalence-based methods. For females, SAFs obtained using KCPS-derived SIRs were markedly greater than all prevalence-based SAFs. Differences in prevalence-based SAFs by time-lag period were minimal among males, but SAFs obtained using longer-lagged prevalence periods were significantly larger among females. SAFs obtained using CPS-II-based SIRs were lower than KCPS-based SAFs by >15 percentage points for most diseases, with the exceptions of lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Conclusions SAFs obtained using prevalence- and SIR-based methods were similar for males. However, neither prevalence-based nor SIR-based methods resulted in precise SAFs among females. The characteristics of the study population should be carefully considered when choosing a method to estimate SAF. PMID:26477995

  19. An estimate of hernia prevalence in Nepal from a countrywide community survey

    PubMed Central

    Stewart, Barclay; Pathak, John; Gupta, Shailvi; Shrestha, Sunil; Groen, Reinou S.; Nwomeh, Benedict C.; Kushner, Adam L; McIntyre, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Background Herniorrhaphy is one of the most frequently performed general surgical operations worldwide. However, most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are unable to provide this essential surgery to the general public, resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence, barriers to care and disability of untreated hernias in Nepal. Methods Nepal is a low-income country in South Asia with rugged terrain, infrastructure deficiencies and a severely under-resourced healthcare system resulting in substantial unmet surgical need. A cluster randomized, cross-sectional household survey was performed using the validated Surgeons OverSeas Assessment of Surgical (SOSAS) tool. Fifteen randomized clusters consisting of 30 households with two randomly selected respondents each were sampled to estimate surgical need. The prevalence of and disability from groin hernias and barriers to herniorrhaphy were assessed. Results The survey sampled 1,350 households, totaling 2,695 individuals (97% response rate). There were 1,434 males (53%) with 1.5% having a mass or swelling in the groin at time of survey (95% CI 0.8 – 3.0). The age-standardized rate for inguinal hernias in men ranged from 1,144 per 100,000 persons between age 5 and 49 years and 2,941 per 100,000 persons age ≥50 years. Extrapolating nationally, there are nearly 310,000 individuals with groin masses and 66,000 males with soft/reducible groin masses in need of evaluation in Nepal. Twenty-nine respondents were not able to have surgery due to lack of surgical services (31%), fear or mistrust of the surgical system (31%) and inability to afford care (21%). Twenty percent were unable to work as previous or perform self-care due to their hernia. Conclusions Despite the lower than expected prevalence of inguinal hernias, hundreds of thousands of people in Nepal are currently in need of surgical evaluation. Given that essential surgery is a necessary component in health

  20. Adjusting HIV prevalence estimates for non-participation: an application to demographic surveillance

    PubMed Central

    McGovern, Mark E.; Marra, Giampiero; Radice, Rosalba; Canning, David; Newell, Marie-Louise; Bärnighausen, Till

    2015-01-01

    Introduction HIV testing is a cornerstone of efforts to combat the HIV epidemic, and testing conducted as part of surveillance provides invaluable data on the spread of infection and the effectiveness of campaigns to reduce the transmission of HIV. However, participation in HIV testing can be low, and if respondents systematically select not to be tested because they know or suspect they are HIV positive (and fear disclosure), standard approaches to deal with missing data will fail to remove selection bias. We implemented Heckman-type selection models, which can be used to adjust for missing data that are not missing at random, and established the extent of selection bias in a population-based HIV survey in an HIV hyperendemic community in rural South Africa. Methods We used data from a population-based HIV survey carried out in 2009 in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. In this survey, 5565 women (35%) and 2567 men (27%) provided blood for an HIV test. We accounted for missing data using interviewer identity as a selection variable which predicted consent to HIV testing but was unlikely to be independently associated with HIV status. Our approach involved using this selection variable to examine the HIV status of residents who would ordinarily refuse to test, except that they were allocated a persuasive interviewer. Our copula model allows for flexibility when modelling the dependence structure between HIV survey participation and HIV status. Results For women, our selection model generated an HIV prevalence estimate of 33% (95% CI 27–40) for all people eligible to consent to HIV testing in the survey. This estimate is higher than the estimate of 24% generated when only information from respondents who participated in testing is used in the analysis, and the estimate of 27% when imputation analysis is used to predict missing data on HIV status. For men, we found an HIV prevalence of 25% (95% CI 15–35) using the selection model, compared to 16% among those who

  1. Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Sero-Prevalence Surveys in Multiple Countries

    PubMed Central

    Imai, Natsuko; Dorigatti, Ilaria; Cauchemez, Simon; Ferguson, Neil M.

    2015-01-01

    Background Estimates of dengue transmission intensity remain ambiguous. Since the majority of infections are asymptomatic, surveillance systems substantially underestimate true rates of infection. With advances in the development of novel control measures, obtaining robust estimates of average dengue transmission intensity is key for assessing both the burden of disease from dengue and the likely impact of interventions. Methodology/Principal Findings The force of infection (λ) and corresponding basic reproduction numbers (R0) for dengue were estimated from non-serotype (IgG) and serotype-specific (PRNT) age-stratified seroprevalence surveys identified from the literature. The majority of R0 estimates ranged from 1–4. Assuming that two heterologous infections result in complete immunity produced up to two-fold higher estimates of R0 than when tertiary and quaternary infections were included. λ estimated from IgG data were comparable to the sum of serotype-specific forces of infection derived from PRNT data, particularly when inter-serotype interactions were allowed for. Conclusions/Significance Our analysis highlights the highly heterogeneous nature of dengue transmission. How underlying assumptions about serotype interactions and immunity affect the relationship between the force of infection and R0 will have implications for control planning. While PRNT data provides the maximum information, our study shows that even the much cheaper ELISA-based assays would provide comparable baseline estimates of overall transmission intensity which will be an important consideration in resource-constrained settings. PMID:25881272

  2. Estimating Prevalence of Overweight or Obese Children and Adolescents in Small Geographic Areas Using Publicly Available Data

    PubMed Central

    Davila-Payan, Carlo; DeGuzman, Michael; Johnson, Kevin; Serban, Nicoleta

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Interventions for pediatric obesity can be geographically targeted if high-risk populations can be identified. We developed an approach to estimate the percentage of overweight or obese children aged 2 to 17 years in small geographic areas using publicly available data. We piloted our approach for Georgia. Methods We created a logistic regression model to estimate the individual probability of high body mass index (BMI), given data on the characteristics of the survey participants. We combined the regression model with a simulation to sample subpopulations and obtain prevalence estimates. The models used information from the 2001–2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, the 2010 Census, and the 2010 American Community Survey. We validated our results by comparing 1) estimates for adults in Georgia produced by using our approach with estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and 2) estimates for children in Arkansas produced by using our approach with school examination data. We generated prevalence estimates for census tracts in Georgia and prioritized areas for interventions. Results In DeKalb County, the mean prevalence among census tracts varied from 27% to 40%. For adults, the median difference between our estimates and CDC estimates was 1.3 percentage points; for Arkansas children, the median difference between our estimates and examination-based estimates data was 1.7 percentage points. Conclusion Prevalence estimates for census tracts can be different from estimates for the county, so small-area estimates are crucial for designing effective interventions. Our approach validates well against external data, and it can be a relevant aid for planning local interventions for children. PMID:25764138

  3. An estimate of hernia prevalence in Sierra Leone from a nationwide community survey

    PubMed Central

    Patel, Hiten D; Groen, Reinou S; Kamara, Thaim B; Samai, Mohamed; Farahzad, Mina M; Cassidy, Laura D; Kushner, Adam L; Wren, Sherry M

    2016-01-01

    Purpose A large number of unrepaired inguinal hernias is expected in sub-Saharan Africa where late presentation often results in incarceration, strangulation, or giant scrotal hernias. However, no representative population-based data is available to quantify the prevalence of hernias. We present data on groin masses in Sierra Leone to estimate prevalence, barriers to care, and associated disability. Methods A cluster randomized, cross-sectional household survey of 75 clusters of 25 households with 2 respondents each was designed to calculate the prevalence of and disability caused by groin hernias in Sierra Leone using a verbal head-to-toe examination. Barriers to hernia repairs were assessed by asking participants the main reason for delay in surgical care. Results Information was obtained from 3645 respondents in 1843 households, of which 1669 (46%) were male and included in the study. In total, 117 males or 7.01% (95% CI 5.64-8.38) reported a soft or reducible swelling likely representing a hernia with four men having two masses. Of the 93.2% who indicated the need for health care, only 22.2% underwent a procedure, citing limited funds (59.0%) as the major barrier to care. On disability assessment, 20.2% were not able to work secondary to the groin swelling. Conclusions The results indicate groin masses represent a major burden for the male population in Sierra Leone. Improving access to surgical care for adult patients with hernias and early intervention for children will be vital to address the burden of disease and prevent complications or limitations of daily activity. PMID:24241327

  4. Problematic video game use: estimated prevalence and associations with mental and physical health.

    PubMed

    Mentzoni, Rune Aune; Brunborg, Geir Scott; Molde, Helge; Myrseth, Helga; Skouverøe, Knut Joachim Mår; Hetland, Jørn; Pallesen, Ståle

    2011-10-01

    A nationwide survey was conducted to investigate the prevalence of video game addiction and problematic video game use and their association with physical and mental health. An initial sample comprising 2,500 individuals was randomly selected from the Norwegian National Registry. A total of 816 (34.0 percent) individuals completed and returned the questionnaire. The majority (56.3 percent) of respondents used video games on a regular basis. The prevalence of video game addiction was estimated to be 0.6 percent, with problematic use of video games reported by 4.1 percent of the sample. Gender (male) and age group (young) were strong predictors for problematic use of video games. A higher proportion of high frequency compared with low frequency players preferred massively multiplayer online role-playing games, although the majority of high frequency players preferred other game types. Problematic use of video games was associated with lower scores on life satisfaction and with elevated levels of anxiety and depression. Video game use was not associated with reported amount of physical exercise. PMID:21342010

  5. Mobile teledermatology is a valid method to estimate prevalence of melanocytic naevi in children.

    PubMed

    Karlsson, Maria A; Lindelöf, Bernt; Wahlgren, Carl-Fredrik; Wiklund, Kerstin; Rodvall, Ylva

    2015-03-01

    The prevalence of melanocytic naevi in children correlates with sun exposure and may serve as an objective population risk indicator of future melanoma incidence. The aim was to investigate if mobile teledermatology could offer a valid methodology compared with standard manual, face-to-face counting of naevi on the back of children. Ninety-seven children aged 7-16 years were enrolled. One dermatologist performed manual naevi counting and imaging of the child's back using an iPhone 4S comprising a safe-coded mobile application. Two other dermatologists independently counted naevi from the images. Cohen's weighted kappa (κw) coefficient demonstrated substantial agreement for both dermatologists: κw = 0.69 (0.57-0.81 [95% confidence intervals]) and κw = 0.78 (0.70-0.86), compared with the manual assessment. Inter-rater reliability was also substantial (κw = 0.80 [0.73-0.87]). Use of mobile teledermatology proved valid for estimating naevi prevalence on the back and could provide a more feasible methodology following trends in sun exposure in children. PMID:25138480

  6. Systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the birth prevalence of five inherited metabolic diseases.

    PubMed

    Moorthie, Sowmiya; Cameron, Louise; Sagoo, Gurdeep S; Bonham, Jim R; Burton, Hilary

    2014-11-01

    Many newborn screening programmes now use tandem mass spectrometry in order to screen for a variety of diseases. However, countries have embraced this technology with a differing pace of change and for different conditions. This has been facilitated by the ability of this diagnostic method to limit analysis to specific metabolites of interest, enabling targeted screening for particular conditions. MS/MS was introduced in 2009 in England to implement newborn bloodspot screening for medium chain acyl-CoA dehydrogenase deficiency (MCADD) raising the possibility of screening for other inherited metabolic disorders. Recently, a pilot screening programme was conducted in order to evaluate the health and economic consequences of screening for five additional inherited metabolic disorders in England. As part of this study we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the birth prevalence of these conditions: maple syrup urine disease, homocystinuria (pyridoxine unresponsive), glutaric aciduria type I, isovaleric acidaemia and long-chain 3-hydroxyacyl-CoA dehydrogenase deficiency including trifunctional protein deficiency. We identified a total of 99 studies that were able to provide information on the prevalence of one or more of the disorders. The vast majority of studies were of screening programmes with some reporting on clinically detected cases. PMID:25022222

  7. Estimation of the prevalence and rate of acute transfusion reactions occurring in Windhoek, Namibia

    PubMed Central

    Meza, Benjamin P.L.; Lohrke, Britta; Wilkinson, Robert; Pitman, John P.; Shiraishi, Ray W.; Bock, Naomi; Lowrance, David W.; Kuehnert, Matthew J.; Mataranyika, Mary; Basavaraju, Sridhar V.

    2014-01-01

    Background Acute transfusion reactions are probably common in sub-Saharan Africa, but transfusion reaction surveillance systems have not been widely established. In 2008, the Blood Transfusion Service of Namibia implemented a national acute transfusion reaction surveillance system, but substantial under-reporting was suspected. We estimated the actual prevalence and rate of acute transfusion reactions occurring in Windhoek, Namibia. Methods The percentage of transfusion events resulting in a reported acute transfusion reaction was calculated. Actual percentage and rates of acute transfusion reactions per 1,000 transfused units were estimated by reviewing patients’ records from six hospitals, which transfuse >99% of all blood in Windhoek. Patients’ records for 1,162 transfusion events occurring between 1st January – 31st December 2011 were randomly selected. Clinical and demographic information were abstracted and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Healthcare Safety Network criteria were applied to categorize acute transfusion reactions1. Results From January 1 – December 31, 2011, there were 3,697 transfusion events (involving 10,338 blood units) in the selected hospitals. Eight (0.2%) acute transfusion reactions were reported to the surveillance system. Of the 1,162 transfusion events selected, medical records for 785 transfusion events were analysed, and 28 acute transfusion reactions were detected, of which only one had also been reported to the surveillance system. An estimated 3.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.3–4.4) of transfusion events in Windhoek resulted in an acute transfusion reaction, with an estimated rate of 11.5 (95% CI: 7.6–14.5) acute transfusion reactions per 1,000 transfused units. Conclusion The estimated actual rate of acute transfusion reactions is higher than the rate reported to the national haemovigilance system. Improved surveillance and interventions to reduce transfusion-related morbidity and mortality

  8. Estimating the prevalence of multiple diseases from two-stage hierarchical pooling.

    PubMed

    Warasi, Md S; Tebbs, Joshua M; McMahan, Christopher S; Bilder, Christopher R

    2016-09-20

    Testing protocols in large-scale sexually transmitted disease screening applications often involve pooling biospecimens (e.g., blood, urine, and swabs) to lower costs and to increase the number of individuals who can be tested. With the recent development of assays that detect multiple diseases, it is now common to test biospecimen pools for multiple infections simultaneously. Recent work has developed an expectation-maximization algorithm to estimate the prevalence of two infections using a two-stage, Dorfman-type testing algorithm motivated by current screening practices for chlamydia and gonorrhea in the USA. In this article, we have the same goal but instead take a more flexible Bayesian approach. Doing so allows us to incorporate information about assay uncertainty during the testing process, which involves testing both pools and individuals, and also to update information as individuals are tested. Overall, our approach provides reliable inference for disease probabilities and accurately estimates assay sensitivity and specificity even when little or no information is provided in the prior distributions. We illustrate the performance of our estimation methods using simulation and by applying them to chlamydia and gonorrhea data collected in Nebraska. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:27090057

  9. The prevalence and factors affecting attention deficit hyperactivity disorder among school children in Khartoum State

    PubMed Central

    Osman, Amira Mohammed; Omer, Ilham Mohammed; Mohammed, Abdalla Abderahman; Abdalla, Sanaa Eltahir

    2015-01-01

    Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is one of the most common neurodevelopmental disorders in children, characterized by age-inappropriate features of inattention, hyperactivity and impulsivity or both. The aim of this study is to determine the prevalence and socio demographic correlates of ADHD symptoms in general basic schoolchildren. A cross-sectional study conducted in Khartoum North. A random sample of 190 general basic schools was chosen, from which sample of 1000 students from both boys and girls were selected by systematic random sampling, their age ranges between 7 and 14 years. They were screened for different subtypes of ADHD symptoms using the SNAP-IV-C teacher and parent rating scale, which is a revision of the Swanson Nalon and Pelham (SNAP) questionnaire. The overall prevalence of ADHD was 9.4%. The prevalence of children with ADHD/inattentive sub type, ADHD/ hyperactive-impulsive sub type, ADHD/ combined subtype were 3.5%, 6.9 % and 1.0 %, respectively. The prevalence rate increased significantly with the increase in age. The study showed that the prevalence of ADHD symptoms among school children in Sudan was high as rated by both teacher and parents rather than what has been reported in other studies. ADHD symptoms are more common among boys than girls and more prevalent in late childhood and in those who lived in rural area. PMID:27493433

  10. [Prevalence of neural tube defects and estimation of cases averted in the post-fortification period in Argentina].

    PubMed

    Bidondo, María P; Liascovich, Rosa; Barbero, Pablo; Groisman, Boris

    2015-12-01

    Periconceptional intake of folic acid has demonstrated to be effective to reduce the frequency of neural tube defects, and food fortification has been one of the strategies implemented to increase it. An update is herein presented on the reduced prevalence of neural tube defect cases in the post-fortification period in Argentina and an estimation of cases averted in the 2005-2013 period as a result of this intervention. When comparing the prevalence observed in the post-fortification period to that reported in the pre-fortification period, anencephaly and encephalocele decreased by 66%, and spina bifida, by 47%, which were significant reductions. The estimated number of cases averted was higher for anencephaly, followed by spina bifida; encephalocele showed the lowest number of cases averted given that the prevalence of this defect was smaller. The decrease observed in the prevalence supports findings from previous studies on the impact of fortification. PMID:26593794

  11. Economic Approaches to Estimating Benefits of Regulations Affecting Addictive Goods.

    PubMed

    Cutler, David M; Jessup, Amber I; Kenkel, Donald S; Starr, Martha A

    2016-05-01

    The question of how to evaluate lost consumer surplus in benefit-cost analyses has been contentious. There are clear health benefits of regulations that curb consumption of goods with health risks, such as tobacco products and foods high in fats, calories, sugar, and sodium. Yet, if regulations cause consumers to give up goods they like, the health benefits they experience may be offset by some utility loss, which benefit-cost analyses of regulations need to take into account. This paper lays out the complications of measuring benefits of regulations aiming to curb consumption of addictive and habitual goods, rooted in the fact that consumers' observed demand for such goods may not be in line with their true preferences. Focusing on the important case of tobacco products, the paper describes four possible approaches for estimating benefits when consumers' preferences may not be aligned with their behavior, and identifies one as having the best feasibility for use in applied benefit-cost analyses in the near term. PMID:27102854

  12. Early Childhood Developmental Status in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: National, Regional, and Global Prevalence Estimates Using Predictive Modeling

    PubMed Central

    McCoy, Dana Charles; Danaei, Goodarz; Black, Maureen M.; Sudfeld, Christopher R.; Fawzi, Wafaie; Fink, Günther

    2016-01-01

    Background The development of cognitive and socioemotional skills early in life influences later health and well-being. Existing estimates of unmet developmental potential in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are based on either measures of physical growth or proxy measures such as poverty. In this paper we aim to directly estimate the number of children in LMICs who would be reported by their caregivers to show low cognitive and/or socioemotional development. Methods and Findings The present paper uses Early Childhood Development Index (ECDI) data collected between 2005 and 2015 from 99,222 3- and 4-y-old children living in 35 LMICs as part of the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) programs. First, we estimate the prevalence of low cognitive and/or socioemotional ECDI scores within our MICS/DHS sample. Next, we test a series of ordinary least squares regression models predicting low ECDI scores across our MICS/DHS sample countries based on country-level data from the Human Development Index (HDI) and the Nutrition Impact Model Study. We use cross-validation to select the model with the best predictive validity. We then apply this model to all LMICs to generate country-level estimates of the prevalence of low ECDI scores globally, as well as confidence intervals around these estimates. In the pooled MICS and DHS sample, 14.6% of children had low ECDI scores in the cognitive domain, 26.2% had low socioemotional scores, and 36.8% performed poorly in either or both domains. Country-level prevalence of low cognitive and/or socioemotional scores on the ECDI was best represented by a model using the HDI as a predictor. Applying this model to all LMICs, we estimate that 80.8 million children ages 3 and 4 y (95% CI 48.1 million, 113.6 million) in LMICs experienced low cognitive and/or socioemotional development in 2010, with the largest number of affected children in sub-Saharan Africa (29.4.1 million; 43.8% of children

  13. Estimating the Smoking Ban Effects on Smoking Prevalence, Quitting and Cigarette Consumption in a Population Study of Apprentices in Italy

    PubMed Central

    Pieroni, Luca; Muzi, Giacomo; Quercia, Augusto; Lanari, Donatella; Rundo, Carmen; Minelli, Liliana; Salmasi, Luca; dell’Omo, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: We evaluated the effects of the Italian 2005 smoking ban in public places on the prevalence of smoking, quitting and cigarette consumption of young workers. Data and Methods: The dataset was obtained from non-computerized registers of medical examinations for a population of workers with apprenticeship contracts residing in the province of Viterbo, Italy, in the period 1996–2007. To estimate the effects of the ban, a segmented regression approach was used, exploiting the discontinuity introduced by the application of the law on apprentices’ smoking behavior. Results: It is estimated that the Italian smoking ban generally had no effect on smoking prevalence, quitting ratio, or cigarette consumption of apprentices. However, when the estimates were applied to subpopulations, significant effects were found: −1% in smoking prevalence, +2% in quitting, and −3% in smoking intensity of apprentices with at least a diploma. PMID:26287220

  14. Estimates of Prevalence and Risk Associated with Inattention and Distraction Based Upon In Situ Naturalistic Data

    PubMed Central

    Dingus, Thomas A.

    2014-01-01

    By using in situ naturalistic driving data, estimates of prevalence and risk can be made regarding driver populations’ secondary task distractions and crash rates. Through metadata analysis, three populations of drivers (i.e., adult light vehicle, teenaged light vehicle, and adult heavy vehicle) were compared regarding frequency of secondary task behavior and the associated risk for safety-critical incidents. Relative risk estimates provide insight into the risk associated with engaging in a single task. When such risk is considered in combination with frequency of use, it sheds additional light on those secondary tasks that create the greatest overall risk to driving safety. The results show that secondary tasks involving manual typing, texting, dialing, reaching for an object, or reading are dangerous for all three populations. Additionally, novice teen drivers have difficulty in several tasks that the other two populations do not, including eating and external distractions. Truck drivers also perform a number of risky “mobile office” types of tasks, including writing, not seen in the other populations. Implications are described for policy makers and designers of in-vehicle and nomadic, portable systems. PMID:24776227

  15. Using dietary reference intake-based methods to estimate prevalence of inadequate nutrient intake among female students in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Morimoto, Juliana Masami; Marchioni, Dirce Maria Lobo; Fisberg, Regina Mara

    2006-05-01

    The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of inadequate usual nutrient intake among female university students. This was a cross-sectional study in which 119 students at a public university in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, completed 3-day estimated food records. These were analyzed for nutrient content, and intake distributions were determined. Nutrient intake distributions were estimated using the National Research Council method. For nutrients for which an Estimated Average Requirement has been established, the Estimated Average Requirement cutpoint method was used to determine the proportion of students with inadequate intake. The students' food records indicated inadequate intakes of folate (99%), zinc (47%), and copper (33%). For approximately 95% of the students in this study, calcium was less than the Adequate Intake. The results showed the need for improvement in dietary choices to minimize the prevalence of inadequate intake of folate, zinc, copper, and calcium in this group. PMID:16647333

  16. National population based HIV prevalence surveys in sub‐Saharan Africa: results and implications for HIV and AIDS estimates

    PubMed Central

    García‐Calleja, J M; Gouws, E; Ghys, P D

    2006-01-01

    Background Sentinel surveillance among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics (ANCs) has been the main source of information on HIV trends in sub‐Saharan Africa. These data have also been used to generate national HIV and AIDS estimates. New technologies and resources have allowed many countries to conduct national population based surveys that include HIV prevalence measurement, as an additional source of information on the AIDS epidemic. Methods The authors reviewed the reports of 20 national population based surveys from 19 countries carried out in sub‐Saharan Africa since 2001. They examined the sampling methodology, HIV testing and response rates, and female:male and urban:rural prevalence ratios. They also constructed adjusted prevalence scenarios assuming different relative risks for survey non‐responders. Results The national population based surveys vary considerably in quality, as reflected in the household response rate (ranging from 75.4% to 99.7%), women's testing rate (ranging from 68.2% to 97.3%), and men's testing rate (ranging from 62.2% to 95.4%), while for some surveys detailed response information is lacking. While 95% confidence intervals around the female:male and urban:rural prevalence ratios in individual countries are large, the median female:male ratio of the combined set of surveys results is 1.5 and the median urban:rural ratio 1.7. A scenario assuming that non‐responders have twice the HIV prevalence of those who fully participated in the survey suggests that individual non‐response could result in an adjusted HIV prevalence 1.03 to 1.34 times higher than the observed prevalence. Conclusions Population based surveys can provide useful information on HIV prevalence levels and distribution. This information is being used to improve national HIV and AIDS estimates. Further refinements in data collection, analysis, and reporting, combined with high participation rates, can further improve HIV and AIDS estimates at national and

  17. Latent class regression models for simultaneously estimating test accuracy, true prevalence and risk factors for Brucella abortus.

    PubMed

    Campe, A; Abernethy, D; Menzies, F; Greiner, M

    2016-07-01

    In 2003/2004 a field trial was conducted in Northern Ireland to assess the diagnostic accuracy of six serological tests for bovine brucellosis caused by Brucella abortus. Whereas between-test comparisons have been used to calculate test performances so far, the present study used a latent class approach to estimate diagnostic test accuracy parameters in the absence of a gold standard for these six tests simultaneously and to estimate the true prevalence, while accounting for clustering in the study population and risk factors for true prevalence. Results obtained in this study with regard to prevalence, sensitivity and specificity were largely in accordance with previous findings. Screening tests (SAT and EDTA) appeared to be the most sensitive; however, at low prevalences the EDTA and CFT showed the highest positive predictive values of all investigated tests. The specificities and negative predictive values of all diagnostic tests were found to be very high. Differences of prevalence between three groups of the study population with different risk of exposure could be attributed to the mode of sampling indicating that a more risk-based sampling will result in a higher prevalence than a cross-sectional sampling mode. Age, dairy status and history of abortion were shown to influence the prediction of the latent true infection status. PMID:27245291

  18. Applying a correction procedure to the prevalence estimates of overweight and obesity in the German part of the HBSC study

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Prevalence rates for overweight and obesity based on self-reported height and weight are underestimated, whereas the prevalence rate for underweight is slightly overestimated. Therefore a correction is needed. Aim of this study is to apply correction procedures to the prevalence rates developed on basis of (self-reported and measured) data from the representative German National Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents (KiGGS) to (self-reported) data from the German Health Behaviour in School Aged Children (HBSC) study to determine whether correction leads to higher prevalence estimates of overweight and obesity as well as lower prevalence rates for underweight. Methods BMI classifications based on self-reported and measured height and weight from a subsample of the KiGGS study (2,565 adolescents aged 11–15) were used to estimate two different correction formulas. The first and the second correction function are described. Furthermore, the both formulas were applied to the prevalence rates from the HBSC study (7,274 adolescents aged 11–15) which are based on self-reports collected via self-administered questionnaires. Results After applying the first correction function to self-reported data of the HBSC study, the prevalence rates of overweight and obesity increased from 5.5% to 7.8% (compared to 10.4% in the KiGGS study) and 2.7% to 3.8% (compared to 7.8% in the KiGGS study), respectively, whereas the corrected prevalence rates of underweight and severe underweight decreased from 8.0% to 6.7% (compared to 5.7% in the KiGGS study) and from 5.5% to 3.3% (compared to 2.4% in the KiGGS study), respectively. Application of the second correction function, which additionally considers body image, led to further slight corrections with an increase of the prevalence rates for overweight to 7.9% and for obese to 3.9%. Conclusion Subjective BMI can be used to determine the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and

  19. Respondent-Driven Sampling of Injection Drug Users in Two U.S.–Mexico Border Cities: Recruitment Dynamics and Impact on Estimates of HIV and Syphilis Prevalence

    PubMed Central

    Brouwer, Kimberly C.; Firestone Cruz, Michelle A.; Ramos, Rebeca; Ramos, Maria Elena; Lozada, Remedios M.; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Strathdee, Steffanie A.

    2006-01-01

    Respondent-driven sampling (RDS), a chain referral sampling approach, is increasingly used to recruit participants from hard-to-reach populations, such as injection drug users (IDUs). Using RDS, we recruited IDUs in Tijuana and Ciudad (Cd.) Juárez, two Mexican cities bordering San Diego, CA and El Paso, TX, respectively, and compared recruitment dynamics, reported network size, and estimates of HIV and syphilis prevalence. Between February and April 2005, we used RDS to recruit IDUs in Tijuana (15 seeds, 207 recruits) and Cd. Juárez (9 seeds, 197 recruits), Mexico for a cross-sectional study of behavioral and contextual factors associated with HIV, HCV and syphilis infections. All subjects provided informed consent, an anonymous interview, and a venous blood sample for serologic testing of HIV, HCV, HBV (Cd. Juárez only) and syphilis antibody. Log-linear models were used to analyze the association between the state of the recruiter and that of the recruitee in the referral chains, and population estimates of the presence of syphilis antibody were obtained, correcting for biased sampling using RDS-based estimators. Sampling of the targeted 200 recruits per city was achieved rapidly (2 months in Tijuana, 2 weeks in Cd. Juárez). After excluding seeds and missing data, the sample prevalence of HCV, HIV and syphilis were 96.6, 1.9 and 13.5% respectively in Tijuana, and 95.3, 4.1, and 2.7% respectively in Cd. Juárez (where HBV prevalence was 84.7%). Syphilis cases were clustered in recruitment trees. RDS-corrected estimates of syphilis antibody prevalence ranged from 12.8 to 26.8% in Tijuana and from 2.9 to 15.6% in Ciudad Juárez, depending on how recruitment patterns were modeled, and assumptions about how network size affected an individual’s probability of being included in the sample. RDS was an effective method to rapidly recruit IDUs in these cities. Although the frequency of HIV was low, syphilis prevalence was high, particularly in Tijuana. RDS

  20. Prevalence of gender disparities and predictors affecting the occurrence of mild cognitive impairment (MCI).

    PubMed

    Lee, Lai Kuan; Shahar, Suzana; Chin, Ai-Vyrn; Mohd Yusoff, Noor Aini; Rajab, Norfadilah; Aziz, Safiyyah Abdul

    2012-01-01

    The aims were to investigate the prevalence of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) within gender disparities in Malaysian older adults, and to determine the predictors of MCI according to gender disparities. A community-based sample of urban, multiethnic dwelling elderly aged 60 years of age and above from Cheras, Kuala Lumpur was recruited. Prevalence of all-type MCI, amnestic-type MCI (am-MCI) and non-amnestic-type MCI (nam-MCI) was assessed using comprehensive neuropsychological batteries. The association between demography, socioeconomic status, lifestyle practices, and nutritional status and health risk factors with MCI were examined. Predictors of MCI occurrence between gender disparities were determined. The prevalence of all-type MCI, am-MCI and nam-MCI was 21.1%, 15.4% and 5.7%, respectively. Binary logistic regression indicated that hypercholesterolemia is the significant predictor for MCI in men after adjustment for age, ethnicity and total years of education. While, in women, MCI was best predicted by married status, without exercise practice, overweight and obesity. These results suggest that approximately one-fifth of the studied elderly people had MCI. Predictors for MCI are totally different between men and women. It is critical to identify those at higher risk for MCI in order to implement preventative measures to delay or reverse this abnormal condition. PMID:21546098

  1. Equipment Errors: A Prevalent Cause for Fallacy in Blood Pressure Recording - A Point Prevalence Estimate from an Indian Health University

    PubMed Central

    Mishra, Badrinarayan; Sinha, Nidhi Dinesh; Gidwani, Hitesh; Shukla, Sushil Kumar; Kawatra, Abhishek; Mehta, SC

    2013-01-01

    Background: Blood pressure (BP) recording is the most commonly measured clinical parameter. Standing mercury sphygmomanometer is the most widely used equipment to record this. However, recording by sphygmomanometer is subject to observer and instrumental error. The different sources of equipment error are faulty manometer tube calibration, baseline deviations and improper arm bladder cuff dimensions. This is further compounded by a high prevalence of arm bladder miss-cuffing in the target population. Objectives: The study was designed to assess the presence of equipment malcalibrations, cuff miss-matching and their effect on BP recording. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional check of all operational sphygmomanometers in a health university was carried out for the length of the manometer tube, deviation of resting mercury column from “0” level, the width and length of arm bladder cuff and extent of bladder cuff-mismatch with respect to outpatient attending population. Results: From the total of 50 apparatus selected, 39 (78%) were from hospital setups and 11 (22%) from pre-clinical departments. A manometer height deficit of 13 mm was recorded in 36 (92.23%) of the equipment in hospital and 11 (100%) from pre-clinical departments. Instruments from both settings showed significant deviation from recommended dimensions in cuff bladder length, width and length to width ratio (P < 0.001). Significant number of apparatus from hospital setups showed presence of mercury manometer baseline deviation either below or above 0 mmHg at the resting state (χ2 = 5.61, D. F. = 1, P = 0.02). Positive corelationship was observed between manometer height deficit, baseline deviation and width of arm cuff bladder (Pearson correlation, P < 0.05). Bladder cuff mismatching in response to the target population was found at 48.52% for males and 36.76% for females. The cumulative effect of these factors can lead to an error in the range of 10-12 mmHg. Conclusion: Faulty equipments and

  2. SAME-GENDER SEX IN THE UNITED STATES IMPACT OF T-ACASI ON PREVALENCE ESTIMATES

    PubMed Central

    VILLARROEL, MARIA A.; TURNER, CHARLES F.; EGGLESTON, ELIZABETH; AL-TAYYIB, ALIA; ROGERS, SUSAN M.; ROMAN, ANTHONY M.; COOLEY, PHILIP C.; GORDEK, HARPER

    2011-01-01

    Well-conducted telephone surveys provide an economical means of estimating the prevalence of sexual and reproductive behaviors in a population. There is, however, a nontrivial potential for bias since respondents must report sensitive information to a human interviewer. The National STD and Behavior Measurement Experiment (NSBME) evaluates a new survey technology—telephone audio computer-assisted self-interviewing (T-ACASI)—that eliminates this requirement. The NSBME embedded a randomized experiment in a survey of probability samples of 1,543 U.S. and 744 Baltimore adults ages 18 to 45. Compared with NSBME respondents interviewed by human interviewers, respondents interviewed by T-ACASI were 1.5 to 1.6 times more likely to report same-gender sexual attraction, experience, and genital contact. The impact of T-ACASI was more pronounced (odds ratio = 2.5) for residents of locales that have historically been less tolerant of same-gender sexual behaviors and for respondents in households with children (odds ratio = 3.0). PMID:21998488

  3. Estimating the Prevalence of Anxiety and Mood Disorders in an Adolescent General Population: An Evaluation of the GHQ12

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mann, Robert E.; Paglia-Boak, Angela; Adlaf, Edward M.; Beitchman, Joseph; Wolfe, David; Wekerle, Christine; Hamilton, Hayley A.; Rehm, Jurgen

    2011-01-01

    Anxiety and mood disorders (AMD) may be more common among adolescents than previously thought, and epidemiological research would benefit from an easily-administered measure of AMD. We assessed the ability of the GHQ12 to estimate the prevalence of AMD in a representative sample of Ontario adolescents. Data were based on self-administered…

  4. Social, Emotional, and Academic Competence among Children Who Have Had Contact with Child Protective Services: Prevalence and Stability Estimates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jaffee, Sara R.; Gallop, Robert

    2007-01-01

    Objective: To estimate the prevalence and stability of social, emotional, and academic competence in a nationally representative sample of children involved with child protective services. Method: Children were assessed as part of the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being. Children (N = 2,065) ranged in age from 8 to 16 years and were…

  5. Comparison of Paper-and-Pencil versus Web Administration of the Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS): Risk Behavior Prevalence Estimates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eaton, Danice K.; Brener, Nancy D.; Kann, Laura; Denniston, Maxine M.; McManus, Tim; Kyle, Tonja M.; Roberts, Alice M.; Flint, Katherine H.; Ross, James G.

    2010-01-01

    The authors examined whether paper-and-pencil and Web surveys administered in the school setting yield equivalent risk behavior prevalence estimates. Data were from a methods study conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in spring 2008. Intact classes of 9th- or 10th-grade students were assigned randomly to complete a…

  6. Bayesian estimation of prevalence of paratuberculosis in dairy herds enrolled in a voluntary Johne's Disease Control Programme in Ireland.

    PubMed

    McAloon, Conor G; Doherty, Michael L; Whyte, Paul; O'Grady, Luke; More, Simon J; Messam, Locksley L McV; Good, Margaret; Mullowney, Peter; Strain, Sam; Green, Martin J

    2016-06-01

    Bovine paratuberculosis is a disease characterised by chronic granulomatous enteritis which manifests clinically as a protein-losing enteropathy causing diarrhoea, hypoproteinaemia, emaciation and, eventually death. Some evidence exists to suggest a possible zoonotic link and a national voluntary Johne's Disease Control Programme was initiated by Animal Health Ireland in 2013. The objective of this study was to estimate herd-level true prevalence (HTP) and animal-level true prevalence (ATP) of paratuberculosis in Irish herds enrolled in the national voluntary JD control programme during 2013-14. Two datasets were used in this study. The first dataset had been collected in Ireland during 2005 (5822 animals from 119 herds), and was used to construct model priors. Model priors were updated with a primary (2013-14) dataset which included test records from 99,101 animals in 1039 dairy herds and was generated as part of the national voluntary JD control programme. The posterior estimate of HTP from the final Bayesian model was 0.23-0.34 with a 95% probability. Across all herds, the median ATP was found to be 0.032 (0.009, 0.145). This study represents the first use of Bayesian methodology to estimate the prevalence of paratuberculosis in Irish dairy herds. The HTP estimate was higher than previous Irish estimates but still lower than estimates from other major dairy producing countries. PMID:27237395

  7. Factors affecting deer ked (Lipoptena cervi) prevalence and infestation intensity in moose (Alces alces) in Norway

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The deer ked (Lipoptena cervi), a hematophagous ectoparasite of Cervids, is currently spreading in Scandinavia. In Norway, keds are now invading the south-eastern part of the country and the abundant and widely distributed moose (Alces alces) is the definitive host. However, key factors for ked abundance are poorly elucidated. The objectives of our study were to (i) determine deer ked infestation prevalence and intensity on moose and (ii) evaluate if habitat characteristics and moose population density are determinants of deer ked abundance on moose. Methods In order to identify key factors for deer ked abundance, a total of 350 skin samples from the neck of hunted moose were examined and deer keds counted. Infestation intensity was analyzed in relation to moose age and sex, moose population density and landscape characteristics surrounding the killing site. Results Deer ked infestation prevalence was 100%, but infestation intensity varied from 0.001 to 1.405 keds/cm2. Ked intensity was highest in male yearlings (~1.5 years) and positively associated with longitude and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) dominated habitat and negatively associated with bogs and latitude. Moose population density during autumn showed a tendency to be positively associated, while altitude tended to be negatively associated with ked intensity. Conclusions Deer keds exploit the whole moose population within our study area, but are most prevalent in areas dominated by Scots pine. This is probably a reflection of Scots pine being the preferred winter browse for moose in areas with highest moose densities in winter. Ked intensity decreases towards the northwest and partly with increasing altitude, probably explained by the direction of dispersal and reduced temperature, respectively. Abundant deer ked harm humans and domestic animals. Moose management authorities should therefore be aware of the close relationship between moose, deer ked and habitat, using the knowledge as a

  8. Effect of nutrition survey 'cleaning criteria' on estimates of malnutrition prevalence and disease burden: secondary data analysis.

    PubMed

    Crowe, Sonya; Seal, Andrew; Grijalva-Eternod, Carlos; Kerac, Marko

    2014-01-01

    Tackling childhood malnutrition is a global health priority. A key indicator is the estimated prevalence of malnutrition, measured by nutrition surveys. Most aspects of survey design are standardised, but data 'cleaning criteria' are not. These aim to exclude extreme values which may represent measurement or data-entry errors. The effect of different cleaning criteria on malnutrition prevalence estimates was unknown. We applied five commonly used data cleaning criteria (WHO 2006; EPI-Info; WHO 1995 fixed; WHO 1995 flexible; SMART) to 21 national Demographic and Health Survey datasets. These included a total of 163,228 children, aged 6-59 months. We focused on wasting (low weight-for-height), a key indicator for treatment programmes. Choice of cleaning criteria had a marked effect: SMART were least inclusive, resulting in the lowest reported malnutrition prevalence, while WHO 2006 were most inclusive, resulting in the highest. Across the 21 countries, the proportion of records excluded was 3 to 5 times greater when using SMART compared to WHO 2006 criteria, resulting in differences in the estimated prevalence of total wasting of between 0.5 and 3.8%, and differences in severe wasting of 0.4-3.9%. The magnitude of difference was associated with the standard deviation of the survey sample, a statistic that can reflect both population heterogeneity and data quality. Using these results to estimate case-loads for treatment programmes resulted in large differences for all countries. Wasting prevalence and caseload estimations are strongly influenced by choice of cleaning criterion. Because key policy and programming decisions depend on these statistics, variations in analytical practice could lead to inconsistent and potentially inappropriate implementation of malnutrition treatment programmes. We therefore call for mandatory reporting of cleaning criteria use so that results can be compared and interpreted appropriately. International consensus is urgently needed

  9. On the Assumption of Bivariate Normality in Selection Models: A Copula Approach Applied to Estimating HIV Prevalence

    PubMed Central

    McGovern, Mark E.; Bärnighausen, Till; Marra, Giampiero; Radice, Rosalba

    2015-01-01

    Background Heckman-type selection models have been used to control HIV prevalence estimates for selection bias, when participation in HIV testing and HIV status are correlated after controlling for observed variables. These models typically rely on the strong assumption that the error terms in the participation and the outcome equations that comprise the model are distributed as bivariate normal. Methods We introduce a novel approach for relaxing the bivariate normality assumption in selection models using non-linear copula functions. We apply this method to estimating HIV prevalence and new confidence intervals (CI) in the 2007 Zambian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), using interviewer identity as the selection variable that predicts participation (consent to test) but not the outcome (HIV status). Results We show in a simulation study that selection models can generate biased results when the bivariate normality assumption is violated. In the 2007 Zambia DHS, HIV prevalence estimates are similar irrespective of the structure of the association assumed between participation and outcome. For men, we estimate a population HIV prevalence of 21% (95% = CI 16% to 25%), compared with 12% (11% to 13%) among those who consented to be tested; for women, the corresponding figures are 19% (13% to 24%) and 16% (15% to 17%). Conclusions Copula approaches to Heckman-type selection models are a useful addition to the methodological toolkit of HIV epidemiology, and of epidemiology in general. We develop the use of this approach to systematically evaluate the robustness of HIV prevalence estimates based on selection models, both empirically and in a simulation study. PMID:25643102

  10. Higher-order Multivariable Polynomial Regression to Estimate Human Affective States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Jie; Chen, Tong; Liu, Guangyuan; Yang, Jiemin

    2016-03-01

    From direct observations, facial, vocal, gestural, physiological, and central nervous signals, estimating human affective states through computational models such as multivariate linear-regression analysis, support vector regression, and artificial neural network, have been proposed in the past decade. In these models, linear models are generally lack of precision because of ignoring intrinsic nonlinearities of complex psychophysiological processes; and nonlinear models commonly adopt complicated algorithms. To improve accuracy and simplify model, we introduce a new computational modeling method named as higher-order multivariable polynomial regression to estimate human affective states. The study employs standardized pictures in the International Affective Picture System to induce thirty subjects’ affective states, and obtains pure affective patterns of skin conductance as input variables to the higher-order multivariable polynomial model for predicting affective valence and arousal. Experimental results show that our method is able to obtain efficient correlation coefficients of 0.98 and 0.96 for estimation of affective valence and arousal, respectively. Moreover, the method may provide certain indirect evidences that valence and arousal have their brain’s motivational circuit origins. Thus, the proposed method can serve as a novel one for efficiently estimating human affective states.

  11. Higher-order Multivariable Polynomial Regression to Estimate Human Affective States.

    PubMed

    Wei, Jie; Chen, Tong; Liu, Guangyuan; Yang, Jiemin

    2016-01-01

    From direct observations, facial, vocal, gestural, physiological, and central nervous signals, estimating human affective states through computational models such as multivariate linear-regression analysis, support vector regression, and artificial neural network, have been proposed in the past decade. In these models, linear models are generally lack of precision because of ignoring intrinsic nonlinearities of complex psychophysiological processes; and nonlinear models commonly adopt complicated algorithms. To improve accuracy and simplify model, we introduce a new computational modeling method named as higher-order multivariable polynomial regression to estimate human affective states. The study employs standardized pictures in the International Affective Picture System to induce thirty subjects' affective states, and obtains pure affective patterns of skin conductance as input variables to the higher-order multivariable polynomial model for predicting affective valence and arousal. Experimental results show that our method is able to obtain efficient correlation coefficients of 0.98 and 0.96 for estimation of affective valence and arousal, respectively. Moreover, the method may provide certain indirect evidences that valence and arousal have their brain's motivational circuit origins. Thus, the proposed method can serve as a novel one for efficiently estimating human affective states. PMID:26996254

  12. Higher-order Multivariable Polynomial Regression to Estimate Human Affective States

    PubMed Central

    Wei, Jie; Chen, Tong; Liu, Guangyuan; Yang, Jiemin

    2016-01-01

    From direct observations, facial, vocal, gestural, physiological, and central nervous signals, estimating human affective states through computational models such as multivariate linear-regression analysis, support vector regression, and artificial neural network, have been proposed in the past decade. In these models, linear models are generally lack of precision because of ignoring intrinsic nonlinearities of complex psychophysiological processes; and nonlinear models commonly adopt complicated algorithms. To improve accuracy and simplify model, we introduce a new computational modeling method named as higher-order multivariable polynomial regression to estimate human affective states. The study employs standardized pictures in the International Affective Picture System to induce thirty subjects’ affective states, and obtains pure affective patterns of skin conductance as input variables to the higher-order multivariable polynomial model for predicting affective valence and arousal. Experimental results show that our method is able to obtain efficient correlation coefficients of 0.98 and 0.96 for estimation of affective valence and arousal, respectively. Moreover, the method may provide certain indirect evidences that valence and arousal have their brain’s motivational circuit origins. Thus, the proposed method can serve as a novel one for efficiently estimating human affective states. PMID:26996254

  13. Hepatitis C in HIV-infected individuals: a systematic review and meta-analysis of estimated prevalence in Africa

    PubMed Central

    Azevedo, Tiago Castro Lopes; Zwahlen, Marcel; Rauch, Andri; Egger, Matthias; Wandeler, Gilles

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Although hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening is recommended for all HIV-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy, data on epidemiologic characteristics of HCV infection in resource-limited settings are scarce. Methods We searched PubMed and EMBASE for studies assessing the prevalence of HCV infection among HIV-infected individuals in Africa and extracted data on laboratory methods used. Prevalence estimates from individual studies were combined for each country using random-effects meta-analysis. The importance of study design, population and setting as well as type of test (anti-HCV antibody tests and polymerase chain reactions) was examined with meta-regression. Results Three randomized controlled trials, 28 cohort studies and 121 cross-sectional analyses with 108,180 HIV-infected individuals from 35 countries were included. The majority of data came from outpatient populations (55%), followed by blood donors (15%) and pregnant women (14%). Based on estimates from 159 study populations, anti-HCV positivity prevalence ranged between 3.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8–4.7) in Southern Africa and 42.3% (95% CI 4.1–80.5) in North Africa. Study design, type of setting and age distribution did not influence this prevalence significantly. The prevalence of replicating HCV infection, estimated from data of 29 cohorts, was 2.0% (95% CI 1.5–2.6). Ten studies from nine countries reported the HCV genotype of 74 samples, 53% were genotype 1, 24% genotype 2, 14% genotype 4 and 9% genotypes 3, 5 or 6. Conclusions The prevalence of anti-HCV antibodies is high in HIV-infected patients in Africa, but replicating HCV infection is rare and varies widely across countries. PMID:27293220

  14. Estimating diabetes prevalence in the Military Health System population from 2006 to 2010.

    PubMed

    Chao, Susan Y; Zarzabal, Lee A; Walker, Sandra M; Herzog, Catherine M; Eilerman, Patricia A; Luce, Beverly K; Carnahan, David H

    2013-09-01

    Evidence-based articles have demonstrated an increase in diabetes prevalence, but diabetes prevalence in the enrolled Military Health System population was previously understudied. Variability in diabetes prevalence rates calculated from 5 groups of algorithms was examined in the Military Health System population (3 million enrollees per year) from fiscal years 2006 to 2010. Time trend analysis and rate comparisons to the U.S. population were also performed. Increasing linear trends in diabetes prevalence from 2006 to 2010 were seen in all algorithms, though considerable rate variation was observed within each study year. Prevalence increased with age, except for a slight decrease in those ≥75 years. Overall diagnosed diabetes prevalence ranged from 7.26% to 11.22% in 2006 and from 8.29% to 13.55% in 2010. Prevalence among active duty members remained stable, but a significant upward trend was observed among nonactive duty members across study years. Age-standardized rates among nonactive duty females were higher than the U.S. population rates from 2006 to 2010. This study demonstrates prevalence rate variability because of differing case algorithms and shows evidence of a growing diabetes population in the Military Health System, specifically within the nonactive duty 45 years and older demographic groups. Further research of this population should focus on validation of case definitions. PMID:24005548

  15. Comparison of Substance-Use Prevalence among Rhode Island and The Miriam Hospital Emergency Department Patients to State and National General Population Prevalence Estimates

    PubMed Central

    Bernardino, Vera L.; Baird, Janette R.; Liu, Tao; Merchant, Roland C.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Compare the prevalence of recent alcohol, tobacco, and drug use among patients from two Rhode Island emergency departments (EDs) to Rhode Island state and United States national general population estimates between 2010 and 2012. Methods Secondary analysis of ED patient data and the National Survey of Drug Use and Health. Results Alcohol was the most commonly reported substance, and prevalence of its use was higher among ED patients than those in the national, but not the Rhode Island, general population. Drug use was higher among ED patients than in the state and national general population. For ED patients, tobacco and opioid use was highest among 26–34 year-olds, alcohol and marijuana highest among 18–25 years-olds, and cocaine highest among 35–49 years-olds. Conclusion Rhode Island Hospital and The Miriam Hospital ED patients report a greater prevalence of substance use than the national population and in many cases the state general population. PMID:25830171

  16. Incidence and prevalence of Toxoplasma gondii infection in women in France, 1980-2020: model-based estimation.

    PubMed

    Nogareda, F; Le Strat, Y; Villena, I; De Valk, H; Goulet, V

    2014-08-01

    Toxoplasmosis is a worldwide zoonosis due to Toxoplasma gondii, a ubiquitous protozoan parasite of warm-blooded animals including humans. In pregnant women, primary infection can cause congenital toxoplasmosis resulting in severe malformations in the newborn. Since 1978, public health authorities in France have implemented a congenital toxoplasmosis prevention programme, including monthly serological screening of all seronegative pregnant women, and treatment in case of seroconversion. However, this programme does not produce systematic surveillance data on incidence and prevalence. Our objective was to estimate the incidence and prevalence of T. gondii infection, and the incidence of seroconversion during pregnancy in women in France. We used a catalytic model to estimate incidence and prevalence of Toxoplasma infection between 1980 and 2020 in women of childbearing age. We used age- and time-specific seroprevalence data obtained from the National Perinatal Surveys (NPS) conducted in 1995, 2003 and 2010. We assumed that incidence depends both on age and calendar time, and can be expressed as the product of two unknown functions. We also estimated incidence of seroconversion during pregnancy in 2010 from the NPS and the National Surveillance of Congenital Toxoplasmosis (ToxoSurv). We combined data of 42208 women aged 15-45 years with serology available from the three NPS. For women aged 30 years the modelled incidence decreased from 7·5/1000 susceptible women in 1980 to 3·5/1000 in 2000. In 2010 the incidence was 2·4/1000. The predicted incidence and prevalence for 2020 was 1·6/1000 and 27%, respectively. The incidence of seroconversion during pregnancy in 2010 was estimated at 2·1/1000 susceptible pregnant women (95% CI 1·3-3·1) from the NPS and 1·9 (95% CI 1·8-2·1) from ToxoSurv. Incidence and prevalence of Toxoplasma infection has decreased markedly during the last 30 years. This decrease may be explained by a lower exposure to the parasite by changes

  17. The Prevalence and Affecting Factors on Self-Medication Among Students of Kermanshah University of Medical Science in 2014

    PubMed Central

    Ahmadi, Sayed Mojtaba; Sadeghi, Khirollah; Abdi, Alireza; Vahid, Mansour Pashaie

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Self-medication is an increasingly growing health problem, which has many adverse effects on human and the cost used in the production of medications. Aim The current study was conducted to estimate the prevalence of self-medication among student of Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences in 2014. Materials and Methods In a descriptive-cross-sectional study, 364 students of Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences were recruited through stratified random sampling method. Data collection was done by researcher-made questionnaire, entered to SPSS22 software and analysed by descriptive and inferential statistics. Results Of the 364 students, prevalence of self-medication was 123 (33.7%) the mean age was 21.63±1.92, among them 64.2% took the medication from the pharmacy and 34.95% have faced complications of self-medication. The main cause of self-medication among students were the history of a disease of taking medication (44.71%), deemed no importance of the disease (34.95%), and easy accessibility of the medication (20.32%). Conclusion With regard to the high prevalence of self-medication among the students, it is suggested to provide educational programs on the adverse effects of self-medication, and appropriate measures to control and prevent easy access to the medications. PMID:27437242

  18. Childhood sexual abuse by representatives of the Roman Catholic Church: a prevalence estimate among the Dutch population.

    PubMed

    Langeland, Willemien; Hoogendoorn, Adriaan W; Mager, Daniel; Smit, Jan H; Draijer, Nel

    2015-08-01

    Estimates of the extent of childhood sexual abuse (CSA) within in the Roman Catholic Church (RCC) in the general population are difficult to find. The independent Commission of Inquiry into sexual abuse of minors in the RCC in the Netherlands collected population-based data to estimate its prevalence. A large random online population sample was surveyed using a two-phase stratified sampling procedure. In Phase 1, 34,267 subjects aged 40 years and older were screened for childhood exposure to sexual abuse by non-family members, a history of institutionalization and a Roman Catholic upbringing. In Phase 2, a stratified subset of 2,462 subjects was assessed to obtain more detailed target information about sexual abuse reports within the RCC. We employed multiple imputation for the estimation of RCC CSA in the original Phase 1 sample. The prevalence of non-familial CSA in general (14.0%) was higher among women (17.2%) than among men (10.6%). The prevalence of CSA within the Dutch RCC (1.7%) was higher among men (2.7%) than among women (0.7%). As expected, older subjects reported more often CSA in the RCC than their younger counterparts. Respondents who stayed for some time in RCC run institutions for education or child protection had a higher risk to report sexual abuse. Although sexual abuse of minors by representatives of the RCC was a structural problem during a period that the Church was highly influential in the Netherlands, the estimated prevalence of the phenomenon is only a fraction of the prevalence rate of non-familial CSA. PMID:26003819

  19. Estimated Prevalence of Venous Thromboembolism in Iran: Prophylaxis Still an Unmet Challenge

    PubMed Central

    Sharif-Kashani, Babak; Mohebi-Nejad, Azin

    2015-01-01

    Background: Inappropriate thromboprophylaxis is a serious problem in Iran. Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is one of the most important causes of morbidity in patients in surgical and obstetrics departments and intensive care units (ICUs). It is a leading preventable cause of mortality among in-patients. This study was designed to determine the prevalence of VTE and its epidemiology in an Iranian population for the first time. Materials and Methods: There is no national registry system for keeping VTE records in Iran. To statistically calculate the annual prevalence of VTE, we used the prevalence of VTE in presence of each VTE predisposing condition and the annual prevalence of each VTE predisposing condition in Iran. Results: The average annual number of total adult patients with predisposing conditions of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in Iran was 5,288,272 people. The mean annual prevalence of DVT in Iran was between 686,928 and 2,089,738 cases. The mean annual prevalence rate of DVT among the hospitalized Iranian adult patients with the risk of DVT was approximately between 129.90 and 395.16 cases per 1000 patients. Conclusion: The mean annual prevalence of DVT among the hospitalized Iranian adult patients not receiving prophylaxis is high. We also found that appropriate prophylaxis was provided for less than half the patients in need. PMID:26221149

  20. THE PREVALENCE OF CONSANGUINEOUS MARRIAGES AND AFFECTING FACTORS IN TURKEY: A NATIONAL SURVEY.

    PubMed

    Kaplan, Sena; Pinar, Gul; Kaplan, Bekir; Aslantekin, Filiz; Karabulut, Erdem; Ayar, Banu; Dilmen, Ugur

    2016-09-01

    This study was carried out by the Turkish Republic Ministry of Health to determine the prevalence of consanguineous marriage and its correlates with socio-demographic and obstetric risk factors in women in Turkey. The cross-sectional, national-level study was carried out from October to December 2013. The study population was composed of women between the ages of 15 and 65 years living in Turkey. The sample size was calculated as 9290 houses within Turkey's 81 provinces so as to improve the Turkish rural-urban expectations by means of systematic stack sampling according to the Turkish Statistical Institute's address-based vital statistics system. The target sample size was 6364, but only eligible 4913 women, who had been married, were included in the study. The consanguineous marriage frequency in the sample was found to be 18.5%, and of these 57.8% were first cousin marriages. Women living in an extended family and whose education level and first marriage ages were low, and whose perceived economic status was poor, had higher frequencies of consanguineous marriage (p<0.001). Consanguineous marriage frequencies were higher (p<0.001) for women who had spontaneous abortions and stillbirths or who had given birth to infants with a congenital abnormality. In this context, it is important to develop national policies and strategies to prevent consanguineous marriages in Turkey. PMID:26892044

  1. Prevalence of Isolated Atrial Amyloidosis in Young Patients Affected by Congestive Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Millucci, Lia; Ghezzi, Lorenzo; Bernardini, Giulia; Braconi, Daniela; Tanganelli, Piero; Santucci, Annalisa

    2012-01-01

    Atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP), whose amyloid is responsible of isolated atrial amyloidosis (IAA), is known to play an important role in the pathophysiology of congestive heart failure (CHF). We provide here the microscopic examination of atrial biopsies from 36 young (mean 40 years) CHF patients distinguished in idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (DC) affected and hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (HC) affected, endorsing the presumptive association of early CHF with IAA. We utilized a multiple method, using Congo red (CR) staining, CR fluorescence (CRF), and immunohistochemistry to assess the presence of IAA in CHF. Immunostaining showed a moderate deposition of IAA in the atrium surrounding working myocardium with small intracellular deposits. Our findings suggest a monitoring of young CHF cases for the development of IAA. Our study also demonstrated how the concurrent use of immunohistochemistry, CR, and CRF may greatly enhance the detection of low-grade amyloid deposits. PMID:22536133

  2. Prevalence of isolated atrial amyloidosis in young patients affected by congestive heart failure.

    PubMed

    Millucci, Lia; Ghezzi, Lorenzo; Bernardini, Giulia; Braconi, Daniela; Tanganelli, Piero; Santucci, Annalisa

    2012-01-01

    Atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP), whose amyloid is responsible of isolated atrial amyloidosis (IAA), is known to play an important role in the pathophysiology of congestive heart failure (CHF). We provide here the microscopic examination of atrial biopsies from 36 young (mean 40 years) CHF patients distinguished in idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (DC) affected and hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (HC) affected, endorsing the presumptive association of early CHF with IAA. We utilized a multiple method, using Congo red (CR) staining, CR fluorescence (CRF), and immunohistochemistry to assess the presence of IAA in CHF. Immunostaining showed a moderate deposition of IAA in the atrium surrounding working myocardium with small intracellular deposits. Our findings suggest a monitoring of young CHF cases for the development of IAA. Our study also demonstrated how the concurrent use of immunohistochemistry, CR, and CRF may greatly enhance the detection of low-grade amyloid deposits. PMID:22536133

  3. Estimating the Impact of Raising Prices and Eliminating Discounts on Cigarette Smoking Prevalence in the United States.

    PubMed

    Marynak, Kristy L; Xu, Xin; Wang, Xu; Holmes, Carissa Baker; Tynan, Michael A; Pechacek, Terry

    2016-01-01

    The average retail price per pack of cigarettes is less than $6, which is substantially lower than the $10 per-pack target established in 2014 by the Surgeon General to reduce the smoking rate. We estimated the impact of three cigarette pricing scenarios on smoking prevalence among teens aged 12-17 years, young adults aged 18-25 years, and adults aged ≥26 years, by state: (1) $0.94 federal tax increase on cigarettes, as proposed in the fiscal year 2017 President's budget; (2) $10 per-pack retail price, allowing discounts; and (3) $10 per-pack retail price, eliminating discounts. We conducted Monte Carlo simulations to generate point estimates of reductions in cigarette smoking prevalence by state. We found that each price scenario would substantially reduce cigarette smoking prevalence. A $10 per-pack retail price eliminating discounts could result in 637,270 fewer smokers aged 12-17 years; 4,186,954 fewer smokers aged 18-25 years; and 7,722,460 fewer smokers aged ≥26 years. Raising cigarette prices and eliminating discounts could substantially reduce cigarette smoking prevalence as well as smoking-related death and disease. PMID:27453597

  4. The Impact of Case Definition on ADHD Prevalence Estimates in Community-Based Samples of School-Aged Children

    PubMed Central

    McKeown, Robert E.; Holbrook, Joseph R.; Danielson, Melissa L.; Cuffe, Steven P.; Wolraich, Mark L.; Visser, Susanna N.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To determine the impact of varying ADHD diagnostic criteria, including new DSM-5 criteria, on prevalence estimates. Method Parent and teacher reports identified ADHD high and low screen children from elementary schools in two states that produced a diverse overall sample. The parent interview stage included the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children – IV (DISC-IV), and up to four additional follow-up interviews. Weighted prevalence estimates, accounting for complex sampling, quantified the impact of varying ADHD criteria using baseline and the final follow-up interview data. Results At baseline 1060 caregivers were interviewed; 656 had at least one follow-up interview. Teachers and parents reported six or more ADHD symptoms for 20.5% (95% CI: 18.1%–23.2%) and 29.8% (CI: 24.5%–35.6%) of children respectively, with criteria for impairment and onset by age seven (DSM-IV) reducing these proportions to 16.3% (CI: 14.7%–18.0%) and 17.5% (CI: 13.3%–22.8%); requiring at least four teacher-reported symptoms reduced the parent-reported prevalence to 8.9% (CI: 7.4%–10.6%). Revising age of onset to 12 years per DSM-5 increased this estimate to 11.3% (CI: 9.5%–13.3%), with a similar increase seen at follow-up: 8.2% with age seven onset (CI: 5.9%–11.2%) versus 13.0% (CI: 7.6%–21.4%) with onset by age 12. Reducing the number of symptoms required for those aged 17 and older increased the estimate to 13.1% (CI: 7.7%–21.5%). Conclusion These findings quantify the impact on prevalence estimates of varying case definition criteria for ADHD. Further research of impairment ratings and data from multiple informants is required to better inform clinicians conducting diagnostic assessments. DSM-5 changes in age of onset and number of symptoms required for older adolescents appear to increase prevalence estimates, although the full impact is uncertain due to the age of our sample. PMID:25524790

  5. Expanding vaccine efficacy estimation with dynamic models fitted to cross-sectional prevalence data post-licensure.

    PubMed

    Gjini, Erida; Gomes, M Gabriela M

    2016-03-01

    The efficacy of vaccines is typically estimated prior to implementation, on the basis of randomized controlled trials. This does not preclude, however, subsequent assessment post-licensure, while mass-immunization and nonlinear transmission feedbacks are in place. In this paper we show how cross-sectional prevalence data post-vaccination can be interpreted in terms of pathogen transmission processes and vaccine parameters, using a dynamic epidemiological model. We advocate the use of such frameworks for model-based vaccine evaluation in the field, fitting trajectories of cross-sectional prevalence of pathogen strains before and after intervention. Using SI and SIS models, we illustrate how prevalence ratios in vaccinated and non-vaccinated hosts depend on true vaccine efficacy, the absolute and relative strength of competition between target and non-target strains, the time post follow-up, and transmission intensity. We argue that a mechanistic approach should be added to vaccine efficacy estimation against multi-type pathogens, because it naturally accounts for inter-strain competition and indirect effects, leading to a robust measure of individual protection per contact. Our study calls for systematic attention to epidemiological feedbacks when interpreting population level impact. At a broader level, our parameter estimation procedure provides a promising proof of principle for a generalizable framework to infer vaccine efficacy post-licensure. PMID:26972516

  6. The Impact of DSM-IV Symptom and Clinical Significance Criteria on the Prevalence Estimates of Subthreshold and Threshold Anxiety in the Older Adult Population

    PubMed Central

    Grenier, Sébastien; Préville, Michel; Boyer, Richard; O’Connor, Kieron; Béland, Sarah-Gabrielle; Potvin, Olivier; Hudon, Carol; Brassard, Joëlle

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Subthreshold anxiety refers to a condition where individuals do not meet the full symptom criteria (i.e., the number of symptoms required for a formal diagnosis is not reached) and/or do not report significant impairment or distress in functioning (i.e., the clinical significance criterion is not met). The purpose of this study was to examine how the symptom and the clinical significance criteria may affect the prevalence estimates of anxiety problems in the older adult population and whether applying these criteria results in an identifiable older group showing more severe anxiety. Setting and Participants Data came from a large representative sample of community-dwelling older adults age 65 years and older (N = 2,784). Results Results showed that the 12-month prevalence rate of any anxiety problem varied from 5.6% when DSM-IV criteria for anxiety disorders were used to 26.2% when all subthreshold manifestations of anxiety were considered. Findings also indicated that when compared with respondents without anxiety, older adults presenting different manifestations of subthreshold or threshold anxiety appear to be more similar than different in their health and health behavior characteristics. Conclusions Subthreshold anxiety has a high prevalence and may cause significant impairment. Both symptom and clinical significance criteria do not perfectly discriminate between older adults with or without a severe anxiety problem presenting comorbid disorders and needing psychiatric help. PMID:21427640

  7. Tuberculosis Infection in the United States: Prevalence Estimates from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2011-2012

    PubMed Central

    Miramontes, Roque; Hill, Andrew N.; Yelk Woodruff, Rachel S.; Lambert, Lauren A.; Navin, Thomas R.; Castro, Kenneth G.; LoBue, Philip A.

    2015-01-01

    Background Reexamining the prevalence of persons infected with tuberculosis (TB) is important to determine trends over time. In 2011–2012 a TB component was included in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) to estimate the reservoir of persons infected with TB. Methods Civilian, noninstitutionalized U.S. population survey participants aged 6 years and older were interviewed regarding their TB history and eligibility for the tuberculin skin test (TST) and interferon gamma release assay (IGRA) blood test. Once eligibility was confirmed, both tests were conducted. Prevalence and numbers of TST positive (10 mm or greater), IGRA positive, and both TST and IGRA positive were calculated by adjusting for the complex survey design after applying corrections for item nonresponse and digit preference in TST induration measurements. To examine TST positivity over time, data from NHANES 1999–2000 were reanalyzed using the same statistical methods. The TST was performed using Tubersol, a commercially available purified protein derivative (PPD), rather than PPD-S, which was the antigen used in NHANES 1999–2000. Prior patient history of TB vaccination was not collected in this study nor were patients examined for the presence of a Bacillus of Calmette and Guerin (BCG) vaccine scar. Results For NHANES 2011–2012, TST and IGRA results were available for 6,128 (78.4%) and 7,107 (90.9%) eligible participants, respectively. There was no significant difference between the percentage of the U.S. population that was TST positive in 2011–2012 (4.7% [95% CI 3.4–6.3]; 13,276,000 persons) compared with 1999–2000 (4.3%; 3.5–5.3). In 2011–2012 the percentage that was IGRA positive was 5.0% (4.2–5.8) and double TST and IGRA positivity was 2.1% (1.5–2.8). The point estimate of IGRA positivity prevalence in foreign-born persons (15.9%; 13.5–18.7) was lower than for TST (20.5%; 16.1–25.8) in 2011–2012. The point estimate of IGRA positivity

  8. The effects of positioning, reason for screening and the referring veterinarian on prevalence estimates of canine hip dysplasia.

    PubMed

    Broeckx, B J G; Verhoeven, G; Coopman, F; Van Haeringen, W; Bosmans, T; Gielen, I; Henckens, S; Saunders, J H; van Bree, H; Van Ryssen, B; Verbeke, V; Van Steendam, K; Van Nieuwerburgh, F; Deforce, D

    2014-09-01

    Although the prevalence of canine hip dysplasia (HD) has been the subject of a number of published studies, estimates vary widely. This study evaluated several possible causes for these differences. Sixty Belgian, Dutch and German veterinarians were asked to submit all hip radiographs obtained for screening purposes (irrespective of HD status) over a 2-year period, resulting in a database of 583 dogs. Each set of radiographs was accompanied by information on the reason for screening (breeding soundness examination, clinical complaint, assistance dogs, or other reasons), and dog breed, date of birth and age. Dog positioning exerted an effect at multiple levels. The agreement among different observers regarding correct or incorrect positioning was limited and incorrect positioning itself reduced the inter-observer agreement for radiographic hip conformation. Dysplastic dogs were more commonly positioned incorrectly than non-dysplastic dogs. The clinical complaint population had a high prevalence of dysplastic dogs (>70%) compared with the breeding population (11%) and the assistance dogs (6%). There was a significantly lower prevalence of HD among cases referred by veterinarians who frequently submitted hip-extended radiographs for evaluation (P = 0.002) compared to those who refer less frequently. However, this was likely to be selection bias, as radiographs that were from dogs suspected to be dysplastic were not submitted by frequent senders. The prevalence of dysplastic dogs varied widely between breeds (16.7-71.4%). Dogs diagnosed with dysplasia were significantly older than dogs considered healthy (P = 0.001) and dogs classified as borderline dysplastic (P = 0.035). Inter-observer agreement for hip conformation was moderately low, resulting in >7% variation in prevalence estimates for dysplasia. PMID:24986314

  9. Household survey in two provinces in Viet Nam estimates HIV prevalence in an urban and a rural population.

    PubMed

    Tuan, Nguyen Anh; Ha, Nguyen Thi Thanh; Diep, Vu Thi Bich; Thang, Pham Hong; Long, Nguyen Thanh; Huong, Phan Thi Thu; Duc, Bui Hoang; Wilson, David; Oelrichs, Robert; Hien, Nguyen Tran

    2008-08-01

    A household-based population study interviewed 2,553 women and 1,984 men aged 15-49 years in urban (Ho Chi Minh City) and rural (Thai Binh) provinces in Viet Nam between July and August 2005. The survey response rate was high--approximately 97% of households and 93% of adults overall, with a >92% acceptance of HIV testing among eligible adults. The unadjusted estimated population HIV prevalence was 0.3% (confidence interval [CI]: 0.1-0.6%) in Thai Binh and 0.7% (CI: 0.3-1.3) in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), compared with the national estimates and projections of 0.352% and 1.250%, respectively, for 2005. The ratio of male-to-female prevalence was 10.5:1 in Thai Binh and 1.3:1 in HCMC. A low level of men reported purchasing sex in the last 12 months (2.4%) and there were low self-reports of sexually transmitted infections in all adults (5%). A correct knowledge of HIV/AIDS prevention methods was high in both provinces (83%), although only 24.8% of women knew of the use of antiretroviral therapy to prevent vertical transmission of HIV. The observed population prevalence was consistent with recent projections in Thai Binh, although lower than expected in HCMC, indicating the substantial downward revisions of projected population HIV prevalence may need to be extended. The unequal sex prevalence ratio is consistent with the projected trends of increasing male-to-female sexual transmission in urban areas. The results and experience of this study will inform future population based surveys in Viet Nam and the broader Asian region. PMID:18724801

  10. Analytical considerations in the use of capture-recapture to estimate prevalence: case studies of the estimation of opiate use in the metropolitan area of Barcelona, Spain.

    PubMed

    Domingo-Salvany, A; Hartnoll, R L; Maguire, A; Brugal, M T; Albertín, P; Caylà, J A; Casabona, J; Suelves, J M

    1998-10-15

    Capture-recapture, an indirect method widely used to estimate undetected populations, has been criticized because it causes problems due to a lack of compliance with several important assumptions and model selection strategies. This paper expands on the problems encountered when applying this methodology to drug abuse estimations, specifically the prevalence of opiate use in the metropolitan area of Barcelona, Spain, in 1993. Three samples of opiate users (from hospital emergency rooms, treatment centers, and prisons) were available in the area studied; an additional sample (mortality data) was analyzed for the city of Barcelona. Log-linear models that provided a good fit were considered, to which further model selection strategies were applied. A total of 3,207 unique individuals aged 15-44 years were identified in the three samples from the greater Barcelona area; the mortality sample from the city of Barcelona contained an additional 83 individuals. Heterogeneity was observed in different age, sex, and residence area subgroups. Population estimates differed widely according to the log-linear model chosen. Minimum Akaike's information criterion model and saturated model estimates were used to produce population prevalence rates. The main problems the authors encountered in this study were related to population definition, source heterogeneity, and assessment of an adequate model, a problem associated with sample size. PMID:9786228

  11. A determination of the prevalence of gender-based violence among conflict-affected populations in East Timor.

    PubMed

    Hynes, Michelle; Robertson, Kathryn; Ward, Jeanne; Crouse, Chadd

    2004-09-01

    The Reproductive Health Response in Conflict (RHRC) Consortium designed a standardised questionnaire to measure gender-based violence (GBV) prevalence in conflict-affected settings. A preliminary field test was undertaken July-August 2002 in one urban and one rural district in East Timor to assess the prevalence of GBV among women 18-49 years of age during and after conflict. The field test used a cross-sectional survey design with a two-stage random selection process. During the year preceding East Timor's 1999 crisis, 23.8 per cent of respondents reported physical assault by an intimate partner; this rate was not significantly different in the year preceding the survey (24.8 per cent). Assault by perpetrators outside the family declined significantly from 24.2 per cent during the crisis to 5.8 per cent post-crisis for physical assault (p<.001) and 22.7 per cent during the crisis to 9.7 per cent post-crisis for sexual assault (p=0.046). The field test stimulated and informed additional research in East Timor, and the complementary findings of these research initiatives continue to be used to develop local policies and programming to prevent and address GBV. PMID:15344943

  12. High prevalence of potential drug interactions affecting mycophenolic acid pharmacokinetics in nonmyeloablative hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients

    PubMed Central

    Jaklič, Alenka; Collins, Carol J.; Mrhar, Aleš; Sorror, Mohamed L.; Sandmaier, Brenda M.; Bemer, Meagan J.; Locatelli, Igor; McCune, Jeannine S.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: Mycophenolic acid (MPA) exposure is associated with clinical outcomes in hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) recipients. Various drug interaction studies, predominantly in healthy volunteers or solid organ transplant recipients, have identified medications which impact MPA pharmacokinetics. Recipients of nonmyeloablative HCT, however, have an increased burden of comorbidities, potentially increasing the number of concomitant medications and potential drug interactions (PDI) affecting MPA exposure. Thus, we sought to be the first to characterize these PDI in nonmyeloablative HCT recipients. Materials and methods: We compiled PDI affecting MPA pharmacokinetics and characterized the prevalence of PDI in nonmyeloablative HCT recipients. A comprehensive literature evaluation of four databases and PubMed was conducted to identify medications with PDI affecting MPA pharmacokinetics. Subsequently, a retrospective medication review was conducted to characterize the cumulative PDI burden, defined as the number of PDI for an individual patient over the first 21 days after allogeneic graft infusion, in 84 nonmyeloablative HCT recipients. Results: Of the 187 concomitant medications, 11 (5.9%) had a PDI affecting MPA pharmacokinetics. 87% of 84 patients had one PDI, with a median cumulative PDI burden of 2 (range 0 – 4). The most common PDI, in descending order, were cyclosporine, omeprazole and pantoprazole. Conclusion: Only a minority of medications (5.9%) have a PDI affecting MPA pharmacokinetics. However, the majority of nonmyeloablative HCT recipients had a PDI, with cyclosporine and the proton pump inhibitors being the most common. A better understanding of PDI and their management should lead to safer medication regimens for nonmyeloablative HCT recipients. PMID:23782584

  13. A first-principles model for estimating the prevalence of annoyance with aircraft noise exposure.

    PubMed

    Fidell, Sanford; Mestre, Vincent; Schomer, Paul; Berry, Bernard; Gjestland, Truls; Vallet, Michel; Reid, Timothy

    2011-08-01

    Numerous relationships between noise exposure and transportation noise-induced annoyance have been inferred by curve-fitting methods. The present paper develops a different approach. It derives a systematic relationship by applying an a priori, first-principles model to the findings of forty three studies of the annoyance of aviation noise. The rate of change of annoyance with day-night average sound level (DNL) due to aircraft noise exposure was found to closely resemble the rate of change of loudness with sound level. The agreement of model predictions with the findings of recent curve-fitting exercises (cf. Miedma and Vos, 1998) is noteworthy, considering that other analyses have relied on different analytic methods and disparate data sets. Even though annoyance prevalence rates within individual communities consistently grow in proportion to duration-adjusted loudness, variability in annoyance prevalence rates across communities remains great. The present analyses demonstrate that 1) community-specific differences in annoyance prevalence rates can be plausibly attributed to the joint effect of acoustic and non-DNL related factors and (2) a simple model can account for the aggregate influences of non-DNL related factors on annoyance prevalence rates in different communities in terms of a single parameter expressed in DNL units-a "community tolerance level." PMID:21877795

  14. Re-Evaluating Neonatal-Age Models for Ungulates: Does Model Choice Affect Survival Estimates?

    PubMed Central

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  15. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: Does model choice affect survival estimates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  16. Problem drug use prevalence estimation revisited: heterogeneity in capture–recapture and the role of external evidence

    PubMed Central

    Welton, Nicky J.; Ades, A. E.; Pierce, Matthias; Davies, Wyn; Coleman, Barbara; Millar, Tim; Hickman, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Background and Aims Capture–recapture (CRC) analysis is recommended for estimating the prevalence of problem drug use or people who inject drugs (PWID). We aim to demonstrate how naive application of CRC can lead to highly misleading results, and to suggest how the problems might be overcome. Methods We present a case study of estimating the prevalence of PWID in Bristol, UK, applying CRC to lists in contact with three services. We assess: (i) sensitivity of results to different versions of the dominant (treatment) list: specifically, to inclusion of non‐incident cases and of those who were referred directly from one of the other services; (ii) the impact of accounting for a novel covariate, housing instability; and (iii) consistency of CRC estimates with drug‐related mortality data. We then incorporate formally the drug‐related mortality data and lower bounds for prevalence alongside the CRC into a single coherent model. Results Five of 11 models fitted the full data equally well but generated widely varying prevalence estimates, from 2740 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 2670, 2840] to 6890 (95% CI = 3740, 17680). Results were highly sensitive to inclusion of non‐incident cases, demonstrating the presence of considerable heterogeneity, and were sensitive to a lesser extent to inclusion of direct referrals. A reduced data set including only incident cases and excluding referrals could be fitted by simpler models, and led to much greater consistency in estimates. Accounting for housing stability improved model fit considerably more than did the standard covariates of age and gender. External data provided validation of results and aided model selection, generating a final estimate of the number of PWID in Bristol in 2011 of 2770 [95% credible interval (Cr‐I) = 2570, 3110] or 0.9% (95% Cr‐I = 0.9, 1.0%) of the population aged 15–64 years. Conclusions Steps can be taken to reduce bias in capture–recapture analysis, including: careful

  17. Estimation of canine Leishmania infection prevalence in six cities of the Algerian littoral zone using a Bayesian approach.

    PubMed

    Adel, Amel; Abatih, Emmanuel; Speybroeck, Niko; Soukehal, Abdelkrim; Bouguedour, Rachid; Boughalem, Karim; Bouhbal, Abdelmalek; Djerbal, Mouloud; Saegerman, Claude; Berkvens, Dirk

    2015-01-01

    A large-scale study on canine Leishmania infection (CanL) was conducted in six localities along a west-east transect in the Algerian littoral zone (Tlemcen, Mostaganem, Tipaza, Boumerdes, Bejaia, Jijel) and covering two sampling periods. In total 2,184 dogs were tested with an indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT) and a direct agglutination test (DAT). Combined multiple-testing and several statistical methods were compared to estimate the CanL true prevalence and tests characteristics (sensitivity and specificity). The Bayesian full model showed the best fit and yielded prevalence estimates between 11% (Mostaganem, first period) and 38% (Bejaia, second period). Sensitivity of IFAT varied (in function of locality) between 86% and 88% while its specificity varied between 65% and 87%. DAT was less sensitive than IFAT but showed a higher specificity (between 80% and 95% in function of locality or/and season). A general increasing trend of the CanL prevalence was noted from west to east. A concordance between the present results and the incidence of human cases of visceral leishmaniasis was observed, where also a maximum was recorded for Bejaia. The results of the present study highlight the dangers when using IFAT as a gold standard. PMID:25793942

  18. Estimation of Canine Leishmania Infection Prevalence in Six Cities of the Algerian Littoral Zone Using a Bayesian Approach

    PubMed Central

    Adel, Amel; Abatih, Emmanuel; Speybroeck, Niko; Soukehal, Abdelkrim; Bouguedour, Rachid; Boughalem, Karim; Bouhbal, Abdelmalek; Djerbal, Mouloud; Saegerman, Claude; Berkvens, Dirk

    2015-01-01

    A large-scale study on canine Leishmania infection (CanL) was conducted in six localities along a west-east transect in the Algerian littoral zone (Tlemcen, Mostaganem, Tipaza, Boumerdes, Bejaia, Jijel) and covering two sampling periods. In total 2,184 dogs were tested with an indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT) and a direct agglutination test (DAT). Combined multiple-testing and several statistical methods were compared to estimate the CanL true prevalence and tests characteristics (sensitivity and specificity). The Bayesian full model showed the best fit and yielded prevalence estimates between 11% (Mostaganem, first period) and 38% (Bejaia, second period). Sensitivity of IFAT varied (in function of locality) between 86% and 88% while its specificity varied between 65% and 87%. DAT was less sensitive than IFAT but showed a higher specificity (between 80% and 95% in function of locality or/and season). A general increasing trend of the CanL prevalence was noted from west to east. A concordance between the present results and the incidence of human cases of visceral leishmaniasis was observed, where also a maximum was recorded for Bejaia. The results of the present study highlight the dangers when using IFAT as a gold standard. PMID:25793942

  19. Prevalence and Determinants of Chronic Kidney Disease Among Hypertensive Cameroonians According to Three Common Estimators of the Glomerular Filtration Rate.

    PubMed

    Kaze, Francois Folefack; Kengne, Andre-Pascal; Magatsing, Carine Tchendjou; Halle, Marie-Patrice; Yiagnigni, Euloge; Ngu, Kathleen Blackett

    2016-05-01

    Hypertension is a risk factor for renal diseases, which, in turn, are precursors of hypertension. The authors assessed the prevalence and determinants of chronic kidney disease (CKD) among 336 hypertensive adult Cameroonians (mean age, 60.9±11.3 years; 63.4% women) at Yaoundé. Any participant with an estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) regardless of the equation used (Cockcroft-Gault [CG], Modification of Diet in Renal Disease [MDRD], and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration [CKD-EPI]) and/or dipstick proteinuria was reviewed 3 months later. Participants presented a high prevalence of diabetes (18.5%), dyslipidemia (17.6%), gout/hyperuricemia (10.7%), overweight/obesity (68.8%), self-medication (37.5%), and alcohol consumption (33.3%). Hypertension was uncontrolled in 265 patients (78.9%). The prevalence of CKD was 49.7%, 50.0%, and 52.1% according to MDRD, CKD-EPI, and CG equations, respectively. Advanced age, adiposity, and severity of hypertension were determinants of CKD. Nearly half of the hypertensive patients had CKD regardless of the estimators used, predicted by well-known risk factors. PMID:26791352

  20. Surgical Care Required for Populations Affected by Climate-related Natural Disasters: A Global Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Eugenia E.; Stewart, Barclay; Zha, Yuanting A.; Groen, Thomas A.; Burkle, Frederick M.; Kushner, Adam L.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Climate extremes will increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters worldwide.  Climate-related natural disasters were anticipated to affect 375 million people in 2015, more than 50% greater than the yearly average in the previous decade. To inform surgical assistance preparedness, we estimated the number of surgical procedures needed.   Methods: The numbers of people affected by climate-related disasters from 2004 to 2014 were obtained from the Centre for Research of the Epidemiology of Disasters database. Using 5,000 procedures per 100,000 persons as the minimum, baseline estimates were calculated. A linear regression of the number of surgical procedures performed annually and the estimated number of surgical procedures required for climate-related natural disasters was performed. Results: Approximately 140 million people were affected by climate-related natural disasters annually requiring 7.0 million surgical procedures. The greatest need for surgical care was in the People’s Republic of China, India, and the Philippines. Linear regression demonstrated a poor relationship between national surgical capacity and estimated need for surgical care resulting from natural disaster, but countries with the least surgical capacity will have the greatest need for surgical care for persons affected by climate-related natural disasters. Conclusion: As climate extremes increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters, millions will need surgical care beyond baseline needs. Countries with insufficient surgical capacity will have the most need for surgical care for persons affected by climate-related natural disasters. Estimates of surgical are particularly important for countries least equipped to meet surgical care demands given critical human and physical resource deficiencies. PMID:27617165

  1. How Initial Prevalence Moderates Network-based Smoking Change: Estimating Contextual Effects with Stochastic Actor-based Models.

    PubMed

    Adams, Jimi; Schaefer, David R

    2016-03-01

    We use an empirically grounded simulation model to examine how initial smoking prevalence moderates the effectiveness of potential interventions designed to change adolescent smoking behavior. Our model investigates the differences that result when manipulating peer influence and smoker popularity as intervention levers. We demonstrate how a simulation-based approach allows us to estimate outcomes that arise (1) when intervention effects could plausibly alter peer influence and/or smoker popularity effects and (2) across a sample of schools that match the range of initial conditions of smoking prevalence in U.S. schools. We show how these different initial conditions combined with the exact same intervention effects can produce substantially different outcomes-for example, effects that produce smoking declines in some settings can actually increase smoking in others. We explore the form and magnitude of these differences. Our model also provides a template to evaluate the potential effects of alternative intervention scenarios. PMID:26957133

  2. Estimating the prevalence of xenophobia and anti-Semitism in Germany: A comparison of randomized response and direct questioning.

    PubMed

    Krumpal, Ivar

    2012-11-01

    An experimental CATI-survey (N=2041), asking sensitive questions about xenophobia and anti-Semitism in Germany, was conducted to compare the randomized response technique (RRT) and the direct questioning technique. Unlike the vast majority of RRT surveys measuring the prevalence of socially undesirable behaviors, only few studies have explored the effectiveness of the RRT with respect to the disclosure of socially undesirable opinions. Results suggest that the RRT is an effective method eliciting more socially undesirable opinions and yielding more valid prevalence estimates of xenophobia and anti-Semitism than direct questioning ('more-is-better' assumption). Furthermore, the results indicate that with increasing topic sensitivity, the benefits of using the RRT also increase. Finally, adapted logistic regression analyses show that several covariates such as education and generalized trust are related to the likelihood of being prejudiced towards foreigners and Jews. PMID:23017963

  3. Estimating the Burden of Acute Gastrointestinal Illness: A Pilot Study of the Prevalence and Underreporting in Saint Lucia, Eastern Caribbean

    PubMed Central

    Jaime, Alina; Mckensie, Martin; Auguste, Ava; Pérez, Enrique; Indar, Lisa

    2013-01-01

    Saint Lucia was the first country to conduct a burden of illness study in the Caribbean to determine the community prevalence and underreporting of acute gastroenteritis (AGE). A retrospective cross-sectional population survey on AGE-related illness was administered to a random sample of residents of Saint Lucia in 20 April–16 May 2008 and 6-13 December 2009 to capture the high- and low-AGE season respectively. Of the selected 1,150 individuals, 1,006 were administered the survey through face-to-face interviews (response rate 87.4%). The overall monthly prevalence of AGE was 3.9%. The yearly incidence rate was 0.52 episodes/person-year. The age-adjusted monthly prevalence was 4.6%. The highest monthly prevalence of AGE was among children aged <5 years (7.5%) and the lowest in persons aged 45-64 years (2.6%). The average number of days an individual suffered from diarrhoea was 3.8 days [range 1-21 day(s)]. Of the reported AGE cases, only seven (18%) sought medical care; however, 83% stayed at home due to the illness [(range 1-16 day(s), mean 2.5]; and 26% required other individuals to take care of them. The estimated underreporting of syndromic AGE and laboratory-confirmed foodborne disease pathogens was 81% and 99% respectively during the study period. The economic cost for treating syndromic AGE was estimated at US$ 3,892.837 per annum. This was a pilot study on the burden of illness (BOI) in the Caribbean. The results of the study should be interpreted within the limitations and challenges of this study. Lessons learnt were used for improving the implementation procedures of other BOI studies in the Caribbean.

  4. Clozapine-induced hypersalivation: an estimate of prevalence, severity and impact on quality of life

    PubMed Central

    Maher, Senan; Cunningham, Aoife; O’Callaghan, Niamh; Byrne, Fintan; Mc Donald, Colm; McInerney, Shane; Hallahan, Brian

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: The objective of this study was to evaluate the prevalence and severity of clozapine-induced hypersalivation, and assess the impact hypersalivation has on global functioning. Methods: Participants attending a dedicated clozapine clinic were invited to undertake a structured interview regarding their experiences of clozapine-induced hypersalivation. Two psychometric instruments to measure hypersalivation, the Nocturnal Hypersalivation Rating Scale and the Drooling Severity and Frequency Scale were used. Results: Clozapine-induced hypersalivation was experienced by 92% of participants, with nocturnal hypersalivation more prevalent compared to daytime hypersalivation (85% versus 48%). Daytime drooling was severe in 18% of cases and was present on a frequent or constant basis for 20% of individuals. Hypersalivation had at least a moderate impact on the quality of life of 15% of study participants. Conclusions: Clozapine-induced hypersalivation is the most prevalent adverse effect experienced by patients treated with clozapine and negatively impacts on quality of life, particularly if daytime drooling is present. The development of further strategies to ameliorate this adverse effect is required given the demonstrated lack of success to date in managing this condition. PMID:27354906

  5. Genetic selection to increase bone strength affects prevalence of keel bone damage and egg parameters in commercially housed laying hens.

    PubMed

    Stratmann, A; Fröhlich, E K F; Gebhardt-Henrich, S G; Harlander-Matauschek, A; Würbel, H; Toscano, M J

    2016-05-01

    The prevalence of keel bone damage as well as external egg parameters of 2 pure lines divergently selected for high (H) and low (L) bone strength were investigated in 2 aviary systems under commercial conditions. A standard LSL hybrid was used as a reference group. Birds were kept mixed per genetic line (77 hens of the H and L line and 201 or 206 hens of the LSL line, respectively, per pen) in 8 pens of 2 aviary systems differing in design. Keel bone status and body mass of 20 focal hens per line and pen were assessed at 17, 18, 23, 30, 36, 43, 52, and 63 wk of age. External egg parameters (i.e., egg mass, eggshell breaking strength, thickness, and mass) were measured using 10 eggs per line at both 38 and 57 wk of age. Body parameters (i.e. tarsus and third primary wing feather length to calculate index of wing loading) were recorded at 38 wk of age and mortality per genetic line throughout the laying cycle. Bone mineral density (BMD) of 15 keel bones per genetic line was measured after slaughter to confirm assignment of the experimental lines. We found a greater BMD in the H compared with the L and LSL lines. Fewer keel bone fractures and deviations, a poorer external egg quality, as well as a lower index of wing loading were found in the H compared with the L line. Mortality was lower and production parameters (e.g., laying performance) were higher in the LSL line compared with the 2 experimental lines. Aviary design affected prevalence of keel bone damage, body mass, and mortality. We conclude that selection of specific bone traits associated with bone strength as well as the related differences in body morphology (i.e., lower index of wing loading) have potential to reduce keel bone damage in commercial settings. Also, the housing environment (i.e., aviary design) may have additive effects. PMID:26944960

  6. Cultivation and counter cultivation: does religiosity shape the relationship between television viewing and estimates of crime prevalence and assessment of victimization likelihood?

    PubMed

    Hetsroni, Amir; Lowenstein, Hila

    2013-02-01

    Religiosity may change the direction of the effect of TV viewing on assessment of the likelihood of personal victimization and estimates concerning crime prevalence. A content analysis of a representative sample of TV programming (56 hours of prime-time shows) was done to identify the most common crimes on television, followed by a survey of a representative sample of the adult public in a large urban district (778 respondents) who were asked to estimate the prevalence of these crimes and to assess the likelihood of themselves being victimized. People who defined themselves as non-religious increased their estimates of prevalence for crimes often depicted on TV, as they reported more time watching TV (ordinary cultivation effect), whereas estimates regarding the prevalence of crime and assessment of victimization likelihood among religious respondents were lower with reports of more time devoted to television viewing (counter-cultivation effect). PMID:23654044

  7. Use of diagnostic reports to estimate prevalence and distribution of skeletal lesions in young Thoroughbreds.

    PubMed

    Axling, J M; Castle, K; Velie, B D; Tammen, I; Thomson, P C; Hamilton, N A; Raadsma, H W; Lindgren, G; Jeffcott, L B; Nicholas, F W

    2016-08-01

    Diagnostic reports written to assist stud managers in the sale of young Thoroughbreds have not previously been used as a data source for the study of skeletal lesions. However, analyses of these reports may provide efficient and cost-effective insights into the prevalence and distribution of skeletal lesions within a population. Diagnostic reports written by veterinarians were acquired from Thoroughbred stud managers in Australia and New Zealand. The reports were based on approximately 1300 sets of weanling and yearling radiographs taken between 2002 and 2007. The prevalence and anatomical distribution of skeletal lesions in weanlings (299 horses) and yearlings (1004 horses) were determined from these reports. Overall, 69.9% of weanlings and 64.5% of yearlings were reported as having one or more skeletal lesions. Diagnostic reports in weanlings were a strong indication of what was likely to be seen in subsequent yearling reports. These diagnostic reports are typically used by stud managers in the sales process and the potential drawback is that some categories of skeletal lesions may be under-reported. However, there was substantial agreement between the prevalence and distribution of several skeletal lesions reported in this study and those previously reported from direct evaluation of radiographs for Australian and New Zealand Thoroughbred yearlings. Strong agreement was found for osteophytes, enthesiophytes and other modelling in the hocks, and for lesions in the hind fetlocks and stifles. This indicates that written diagnostic reports are a useful and a reliable source of data for the study of some skeletal lesions in young Thoroughbred horses. PMID:27387729

  8. The PROBIT approach in estimating the prevalence of wasting: revisiting bias and precision

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The PROBIT methodology was presented in the 1995 World Health Organization Technical Report on Anthropometry as an alternative to the standard prevalence based method of measuring malnutrition in children. Theoretically the PROBIT method will always give a smaller standard error than the standard prevalence method in measuring malnutrition. A recent article by Dale et al. assessed the PROBIT method for measuring global acute malnutrition measure and found that the method was biased and the precision was superior only for sample sizes less than 150 when compared to the standard method. In a manner similar to Dale, our study further investigated the bias and precision of the PROBIT method for different sample sizes using simulated populations. Results The PROBIT method showed bias for each of the ten simulated populations, but the direction and magnitude of the average bias was changed depending on the simulated population. For a given simulated population, the average bias was relatively constant for all sample sizes drawn. The 95% half-width confidence interval was lower for the PROBIT method than the standard prevalence method regardless of the sample size or simulated population. The absolute difference in the confidence limits showed the most gains for the PROBIT method for the smaller samples sizes, but the ratio of confidence intervals was relatively constant across all sample sizes. Conclusions The PROBIT method will provide gains in precision regardless of the sample size, but the method may be biased. The direction and magnitude of the bias depends on the population it is drawn from. PMID:23981669

  9. Copro prevalence and estimated risk of Entamoeba histolytica in Diarrheic patients at Beni-Suef, Egypt.

    PubMed

    Ibrahim, Shimaa S; El-Matarawy, Olfat M; Ghieth, Marwa A; Abu Sarea, Enas Y; El-Badry, Ayman A

    2015-02-01

    Amoebiasis diagnosis is usually based on microscopy that cannot differentiate pathogenic E. histolytica from morphologically identical non-pathogenic species. 194 fecal samples were collected from diarrheic &/or dysenteric patients and examined for Entamoeba complex microscopically, E. histolytica/E. dispar coproantigen using ICT and E. histolytica coproantigen using Tech lab E. histolytica II ELISA test. Entamoeba complex trophozoites/cysts, E. histolytica/E. dispar coproantigen and E. histolytica coproantigen were detected in 22.2, 14.4 and 3.6 % of samples, respectively. Microscopy and ICT method had limited sensitivity with poor PPV (9.3 and 7.1 %, respectively) and both slightly agree with ELISA test. The prevalence of E. histolytica was low (3.6 %) in studied individuals and was 14 times lower than non-pathogenic amoebae. E. histolytica detection studied individuals was positively associated with mucoid and bloody stool, which makes them disease predictors. E. histolytica fecal ELISA assay for E. histolytica detection surpassed microscopy and E. histolytica/E. dispar ICT assay. This has highlighted the need for practical non-microscopic detection methods that can differentiate between amoeba infections to avoid unnecessary and possibly harmful therapies and to determine the true prevalence and epidemiology of E. histolytica. PMID:25542044

  10. An approximate likelihood estimator for the prevalence of infections in vectors using pools of varying sizes.

    PubMed

    Santos, James D; Dorgam, Diana

    2016-09-01

    There are several arthropods that can transmit disease to humans. To make inferences about the rate of infection of these arthropods, it is common to collect a large sample of vectors, divide them into groups (called pools), and apply a test to detect infection. This paper presents an approximate likelihood point estimator to rate of infection for pools of different sizes, when the variability of these sizes is small and the infection rate is low. The performance of this estimator was evaluated in four simulated scenarios, created from real experiments selected in the literature. The new estimator performed well in three of these scenarios. As expected, the new estimator performed poorly in the scenario with great variability in the size of the pools for some values of the parameter space. PMID:27159117

  11. Hearing-Impaired/Developmentally Disabled Persons in the United States: Definitions, Causes, Effects, and Prevalence Estimates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stewart, Larry G.

    1978-01-01

    Information is presented on the definition, causes, effects and population estimates for developmental disabilities; and a tentative hypothesis regarding the hearing impaired/developmentally disabled is set forth. (CL)

  12. Use of cohort data to estimate national prevalence of transmitted drug resistance to antiretroviral drugs in Spain (2007-2012).

    PubMed

    Monge, S; Díez, M; Alvarez, M; Guillot, V; Iribarren, J A; Palacios, R; Delgado, R; Jaén, A; Blanco, J R; Domingo, P; Portilla, J; Pérez Elías, M J; Garcia, F

    2015-01-01

    Prevalence of transmitted drug resistance (pTDR) to antiretroviral drugs in Spain (2007-2012) was estimated using the CoRIS cohort, adjusting its territorial distribution and transmission route to the reference population from the Spanish Information System on New human immunodeficiency virus diagnoses. A total of 2702 patients from ten autonomous communities and with naive FASTA sequence within 6 months of human immunodeficiency virus diagnosis were selected. Weighted pTDR, estimated using the inverse probability of selection in the sample by autonomous communities and transmission group, was 8.12% (95% CI 6.44-9.80), not significantly different from unweighted pTDR. We illustrate how proportional weighting can maximize representativeness of cohort-based data, and its value to monitor pTDR at country level. PMID:25636937

  13. How Many People have Alcohol Use Disorders? Using the Harmful Dysfunction Analysis to Reconcile Prevalence Estimates in Two Community Surveys

    PubMed Central

    Wakefield, Jerome C.; Schmitz, Mark F.

    2014-01-01

    Community prevalence rates of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) provided by epidemiological studies using DSM-based diagnostic criteria pose several challenges: the rates appear implausibly high to many epidemiologists; they do not converge across similar studies; and, due to low service utilization by those diagnosed as disordered, they yield estimates of unmet need for services so high that credibility for planning purposes is jeopardized. For example, two early community studies using DSM diagnostic criteria, the Epidemiologic Catchment Area Study (ECA) and the National Comorbidity Survey (NCS), yielded lifetime AUD prevalence rates of 14 and 24%, respectively, with NCS unmet need for services 19% of the entire population. Attempts to address these challenges by adding clinical significance requirements to diagnostic criteria have proven unsuccessful. Hypothesizing that these challenges are due to high rates of false-positive diagnoses of problem drinking as AUDs, we test an alternative approach. We use the harmful dysfunction (HD) analysis of the concept of mental disorder as a guide to construct more valid criteria within the framework of the standard out-of-control model of AUD. The proposed HD criteria require harm and dysfunction, where harm can be any negative social, personal, or physical outcome, and dysfunction requires either withdrawal symptoms or inability to stop drinking. Using HD criteria, ECA and NCS lifetime prevalences converge to much-reduced rates of 6 and 6.8%, respectively. Due to higher service utilization rates, NCS lifetime unmet need is reduced to 3.4%. Service use and duration comparisons suggest that HD criteria possess increased diagnostic validity. Moreover, HD criteria eliminate 90% of transient teenage drinking from disorder status. The HD version of the out-of-control model thus potentially resolves the three classic prevalence challenges while offering a more rigorous approach to distinguishing AUDs from problematic drinking. PMID

  14. The estimation of prevalence and risk factors of hepatitis B virus infection among blood donors in Chengdu, China.

    PubMed

    Zhong, Li; Xi, Guangxiang; Zhang, Lanjiang; Liu, Shuangli; Wan, Like; Yu, Lian; Zhou, Min; Zhang, Jie; He, Yi

    2016-02-01

    The reported positive rates of hepatitis B virus surface antigen (HBsAg) among Chinese blood donors generally do not include data from pre-donation rapid tests. The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of serologic markers for HBsAg and risk factors among blood donors from Chengdu, China. From April 2010 to March 2011, a total of 16,875 blood donors were enrolled. Data from HBsAg tests before and after donations were collected to estimate the prevalence of HBsAg. A case-control study was conducted in 265 unique HBsAg-positive blood donors and 530 seronegative donors between January 2011 and October 2012. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated using conditional logistic regression. The population attributable risk (PAR) was estimated. The prevalence of HBsAg was 3.17% (95%CI, 2.91-3.43%). The following risk factors were associated with HBV infection: non-vaccination for HBV (OR = 4.236; 95%CI, 2.72-6.60%), razor sharing (OR = 2.370; 95%CI, 1.46-3.84%), dental treatment (OR = 1.714; 95%CI, 1.21-2.43%), acupuncture (OR = 1.983; 95%CI, 1.20-3.28%), a family history of HBV infection (OR = 2.257; 95%CI, 1.32-3.86%), and endoscopy (OR = 2.17; 95%CI, 1.04-4.51%). The PAR values of the risk factors were 42.77%, 31.78%, 13.68%, 6.18%, 6.09%, and 2.85%, respectively, and the total PAR was 68.78%. The prevalence of HBsAg among Chinese blood donors is still high. HBV vaccinations can provide protection. Blood contact from sharing instruments is still a high risk route of transmission for HBV. Immunization programs and behavioral interventions should be used to prevent blood donation infections and improve blood safety. PMID:26241150

  15. Estimates of the prevalence of anomalous signal losses in the Yellow Sea derived from acoustic and oceanographic computer model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chin-Bing, Stanley A.; King, David B.; Warn-Varnas, Alex C.; Lamb, Kevin G.; Hawkins, James A.; Teixeira, Marvi

    2002-05-01

    The results from collocated oceanographic and acoustic simulations in a region of the Yellow Sea near the Shandong peninsula have been presented [Chin-Bing et al., J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 108, 2577 (2000)]. In that work, the tidal flow near the peninsula was used to initialize a 2.5-dimensional ocean model [K. G. Lamb, J. Geophys. Res. 99, 843-864 (1994)] that subsequently generated internal solitary waves (solitons). The validity of these soliton simulations was established by matching satellite imagery taken over the region. Acoustic propagation simulations through this soliton field produced results similar to the anomalous signal loss measured by Zhou, Zhang, and Rogers [J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 90, 2042-2054 (1991)]. Analysis of the acoustic interactions with the solitons also confirmed the hypothesis that the loss mechanism involved acoustic mode coupling. Recently we have attempted to estimate the prevalence of these anomalous signal losses in this region. These estimates were made from simulating acoustic effects over an 80 hour space-time evolution of soliton packets. Examples will be presented that suggest the conditions necessary for anomalous signal loss may be more prevalent than previously thought. [Work supported by ONR/NRL and by a High Performance Computing DoD grant.

  16. The prevalence of ABCB1:c.227_230delATAG mutation in affected dog breeds from European countries.

    PubMed

    Firdova, Zuzana; Turnova, Evelina; Bielikova, Marcela; Turna, Jan; Dudas, Andrej

    2016-06-01

    Deletion of 4-base pairs in the canine ABCB1 (MDR1) gene, responsible for encoding P-glycoprotein, leads to nonsense frame-shift mutation, which causes hypersensitivity to macrocyclic lactones drugs (e.g. ivermectin). To date, at least 12 purebred dog breeds have been found to be affected by this mutation. The aim of this study was to update information about the prevalence of ABCB1 mutation (c.227_230delATAG) in predisposed breeds in multiple European countries. This large scale survey also includes countries which were not involved in previous studies. The samples were collected in the period from 2012 to 2014. The overview is based on genotyping data of 4729 individuals. The observed mutant allele frequencies were 58.5% (Smooth Collie), 48.3% (Rough Collie), 35% (Australian Shepherd), 30.3% (Shetland Sheepdog), 28.1% (Silken Windhound), 26.1% (Miniature Australian Shepherd), 24.3% (Longhaired Whippet), 16.2% (White Swiss Shepherd) and 0% (Border Collie). The possible presence of an ABCB1 mutant allele in Akita-Inu breed has been investigated with negative results. This information could be helpful for breeders in optimization of their breeding strategy and for veterinarians when prescribing drug therapy for dogs of predisposed breeds. PMID:27234542

  17. Bayesian Estimation of the True Prevalence and of the Diagnostic Test Sensitivity and Specificity of Enteropathogenic Yersinia in Finnish Pig Serum Samples

    PubMed Central

    Vilar, M. J.; Ranta, J.; Virtanen, S.; Korkeala, H.

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian analysis was used to estimate the pig's and herd's true prevalence of enteropathogenic Yersinia in serum samples collected from Finnish pig farms. The sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test were also estimated for the commercially available ELISA which is used for antibody detection against enteropathogenic Yersinia. The Bayesian analysis was performed in two steps; the first step estimated the prior true prevalence of enteropathogenic Yersinia with data obtained from a systematic review of the literature. In the second step, data of the apparent prevalence (cross-sectional study data), prior true prevalence (first step), and estimated sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods were used for building the Bayesian model. The true prevalence of Yersinia in slaughter-age pigs was 67.5% (95% PI 63.2–70.9). The true prevalence of Yersinia in sows was 74.0% (95% PI 57.3–82.4). The estimates of sensitivity and specificity values of the ELISA were 79.5% and 96.9%. PMID:26539540

  18. Incidence estimation using a single cross-sectional age-specific prevalence survey with differential mortality.

    PubMed

    Turner, Elizabeth L; Sweeting, Michael J; Lindfield, Robert J; Deangelis, Daniela

    2014-02-10

    Here, we present a method for incidence estimation of a curable, non-recurring disease when data from a single cross-sectional survey are used together with population-level mortality rates and an assumption of differential mortality of diseased versus non-diseased individuals. The motivating example is cataract, and the VISION2020 goal to eliminate avoidable blindness globally by 2020. Reliable estimates of current and future cataract disease burden are required to predict how many surgeries would need to be performed to meet the VISION2020 goals. However, incidence estimates, needed to derive future burden, are not as easily available, due to the cost of conducting cohort studies. Disease is defined at the person-level in accordance with the WHO person-level definition of blindness. An extension of the standard time homogeneous illness-death model to a four-state model is described, which allows the disease to be cured, whereby surgery is performed on at least one diseased eye. Incidence is estimated, and the four-state model is used to predict disease burden assuming different surgical strategies whilst accounting for the competing risk of death. The method is applied to data from approximately 10,000 people from a survey of visual impairment in Nigeria. PMID:24009063

  19. Prevalence estimation of celiac disease in the general adult population of Latvia using serology and HLA genotyping

    PubMed Central

    Shums, Zakera; Nikitina-Zake, Liene; Gavars, Mikus; Kikuste, Ilze; Milo, Jay; Daugule, Ilva; Pahomova, Jelena; Pirags, Valdis; Dzerve, Vilnis; Klovins, Janis; Erglis, Andrejs; Norman, Gary L

    2015-01-01

    Background Prevalence estimates for celiac disease (CD) depend on the method used. The role of deamidated gliadin peptide (DGP) and genetic testing in epidemiological studies and diagnostic settings of celiac disease (CD) has still to be established. Objectives The objective of this article is to assess the prevalence of CD in Latvia by combining serological tests with DQ2.5/DQ8 testing. Methods A total of 1444 adults from a randomly selected cross-sectional general population sample were tested by ELISA for tTG IgA, DGP IgA and IgG antibodies (QUANTA Lite®, Inova Diagnostics Inc). Samples with tTG IgA ≥20U were tested for EMA IgA by indirect immunofluorescence assay, and all specimens with tTG IgA ≥15U were tested by QUANTA-Flash® chemiluminescent assays (CIA) (Inova Diagnostics Inc) for tTG IgA, DGP IgA and IgG. DQ2.5/8 was detected in individuals with any positive ELISA test and a subgroup of controls. Results Forty-three individuals (2.98%; 95% CI: 2.10–3.86%) tested positive by at least one ELISA test; 41.86% of the serology-positive individuals (any test above the cutoff) were DQ positive. Six individuals (0.42%; 95% CI: 0.09–0.75%) were triple ELISA positive, and DQ2.5 or DQ8 was positive in all; 0.35% (95% CI: 0.05–0.65%) were tTG IgA and EMA positive. Two tTG IgA-negative cases were both DGP IgG and IgA positive, both being DQ positive; including them in the “serology-positive” group would increase the prevalence to 0.49% (95% CI: 0.13–0.85%). CIA tests revealed 2 tTG IgA-positive and EMA-negative cases with a positive genotype. DQ2.5 or DQ8 genotype was positive in 28.6% of the serology-negative population. Conclusions Estimates of the prevalence of CD in Latvia based on the serogenetic testing approach range from 0.35% to 0.49% depending on the criteria used. There is a rationale for combining serological tests and DQ2.5/8 genotyping. PMID:25922680

  20. Prevalence of Ascogregarina spp. in the container breeding Aedes albopictus from Chikungunya fever affected areas of Kerala State, India.

    PubMed

    Muniaraj, M; Rajendran, R; Arunachalam, N; Paramasivan, R; Samuel, P Philip

    2010-06-01

    The prevalence of protozoan, Ascogregarina sp. had been determined in the container breeding mosquitoes, Aedes albopictus. Since, the cyst of Ascogregarina might play role in the maintenance of the Chik virus during silent period, the presence of Ascogregarina has gained importance in recent days. The prevalence was found to be 71.62. PMID:22471176

  1. Estimating the Prevalence of Injection Drug Users in the U.S. and in Large U.S. Metropolitan Areas from 1992 to 2002

    PubMed Central

    Friedman, Samuel R.; Cooper, Hannah L.F.; Flom, Peter L.; Tempalski, Barbara; Gostnell, Karla

    2008-01-01

    This paper estimates the prevalence of current injection drug users (IDUs) in 96 large U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) annually from 1992 to 2002. Multiplier/allocation methods were used to estimate the prevalence of injectors because confidentiality restrictions precluded the use of other commonly used estimation methods, such as capture–recapture. We first estimated the number of IDUs in the U.S. each year from 1992 to 2002 and then apportioned these estimates to MSAs using multiplier methods. Four different types of data indicating drug injection were used to allocate national annual totals to MSAs, creating four distinct series of estimates of the number of injectors in each MSA. Each series was smoothed over time; and the mean value of the four component estimates was taken as the best estimate of IDUs for that MSA and year (with the range of component estimates indicating the degree of uncertainty in the estimates). Annual cross-sectional correlations of the MSA-level IDU estimates with measures of unemployment, hepatitis C mortality prevalence, and poisoning mortality prevalence were used to validate our estimates. MSA-level IDU estimates correlated moderately well with validators, demonstrating adequate convergence validity. Overall, the number of IDUs per 10,000 persons aged 15–64 years varied from 30 to 348 across MSAs (mean 126.9, standard deviation 65.3, median 106.6, interquartile range 78–162) in 1992 and from 37 to 336 across MSAs (mean 110.6, standard deviation 57.7, median 96.1, interquartile range 67–134) in 2002. A multilevel model showed that overall, across the 96 MSAs, the number of injectors declined each year until 2000, after which the IDU prevalence began to increase. Despite the variation in component estimates and methodological and component data set limitations, these local IDU prevalence estimates may be used to assess: (1) predictors of change in IDU prevalence; (2) differing IDU trends between localities; (3) the

  2. Global Estimates of the Prevalence and Incidence of Four Curable Sexually Transmitted Infections in 2012 Based on Systematic Review and Global Reporting

    PubMed Central

    Newman, Lori; Rowley, Jane; Vander Hoorn, Stephen; Wijesooriya, Nalinka Saman; Unemo, Magnus; Low, Nicola; Stevens, Gretchen; Gottlieb, Sami; Kiarie, James; Temmerman, Marleen

    2015-01-01

    Background Quantifying sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevalence and incidence is important for planning interventions and advocating for resources. The World Health Organization (WHO) periodically estimates global and regional prevalence and incidence of four curable STIs: chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis and syphilis. Methods and Findings WHO’s 2012 estimates were based upon literature reviews of prevalence data from 2005 through 2012 among general populations for genitourinary infection with chlamydia, gonorrhoea, and trichomoniasis, and nationally reported data on syphilis seroprevalence among antenatal care attendees. Data were standardized for laboratory test type, geography, age, and high risk subpopulations, and combined using a Bayesian meta-analytic approach. Regional incidence estimates were generated from prevalence estimates by adjusting for average duration of infection. In 2012, among women aged 15–49 years, the estimated global prevalence of chlamydia was 4.2% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 3.7–4.7%), gonorrhoea 0.8% (0.6–1.0%), trichomoniasis 5.0% (4.0–6.4%), and syphilis 0.5% (0.4–0.6%); among men, estimated chlamydia prevalence was 2.7% (2.0–3.6%), gonorrhoea 0.6% (0.4–0.9%), trichomoniasis 0.6% (0.4–0.8%), and syphilis 0.48% (0.3–0.7%). These figures correspond to an estimated 131 million new cases of chlamydia (100–166 million), 78 million of gonorrhoea (53–110 million), 143 million of trichomoniasis (98–202 million), and 6 million of syphilis (4–8 million). Prevalence and incidence estimates varied by region and sex. Conclusions Estimates of the global prevalence and incidence of chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis, and syphilis in adult women and men remain high, with nearly one million new infections with curable STI each day. The estimates highlight the urgent need for the public health community to ensure that well-recognized effective interventions for STI prevention, screening, diagnosis, and

  3. The factors affecting on estimation of carbohydrate content of meals in carbohydrate counting.

    PubMed

    Kawamura, Tomoyuki; Takamura, Chihiro; Hirose, Masakazu; Hashimoto, Tomomi; Higashide, Takashi; Kashihara, Yoneo; Hashimura, Kayako; Shintaku, Haruo

    2015-10-01

    The objective of this study was to identify factors affecting on errors in carbohydrate (CHO) content estimation during CHO counting. Thirty-seven type 1 diabetes patients and 22 of their parents and 28 physicians/dieticians were enrolled in this study. CHO counting was counted in "Carb", with 1 Carb defined as 10 g of CHO. To evaluate the accuracy of CHO counting, 80 real-size photographs of cooked meals were presented to the subjects for Carb estimation. Carbs tended to be overestimated for foods containing relatively small amounts of Carbs. On the other hands, Carbs tended to be underestimated for foods with higher than 6 Carbs. Accurate estimation of the Carbs in food containing a large amount of rice was particularly difficult even in the subjects having the CHO counting experience. The Carb contents of high-calorie foods such as meats, fried foods, and desserts tended to be overestimated. This error was smaller in subjects having the CHO counting experience. In conclusion, misunderstanding of high-calorie dishes containing high amounts of CHO was observed in inexperienced subjects, indicating the efficacy of the current methodology of CHO counting. On the other hand it was difficult even for experienced subjects to assess the amount of seasoned rice, suggesting the need for a new methodology for accurate estimation. PMID:26568656

  4. Demography of forest birds in Panama: How do transients affect estimates of survival rates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brawn, J.D.; Karr, J.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Robinson, W.D.

    1998-01-01

    Estimates of annual survival rates for a multispecies sample of neotropical birds from Panama have proven controversial. Traditionally, tropical birds were thought to have high survival rates for their size, but analyses by Kart et al. (1990. Am. Nat. 136:277-91) contradicted that view, suggesting tropical birds may not have systematically high survival rates. A persistent criticism of that study has been that the estimates were biased by transient birds captured only once as they passed through the area being sampled. New models that formally adjust for transient individuals have been developed since 1990. Preliminary analyses using these models indicate that, despite some variation among species, overall estimates of survival rates for understory birds in Panama are not strongly affected by adjustments for transients. We also compare estimates of survival rates based on mark-recapture models with observations of colour-marked birds. The demographic traits of birds in the tropics (and elsewhere) vary within and among species according to combinations of historical and ongoing ecological factors. Understanding sources of this variation is the challenge for future work.

  5. The factors affecting on estimation of carbohydrate content of meals in carbohydrate counting

    PubMed Central

    Kawamura, Tomoyuki; Takamura, Chihiro; Hirose, Masakazu; Hashimoto, Tomomi; Higashide, Takashi; Kashihara, Yoneo; Hashimura, Kayako; Shintaku, Haruo

    2015-01-01

    Abstract. The objective of this study was to identify factors affecting on errors in carbohydrate (CHO) content estimation during CHO counting. Thirty-seven type 1 diabetes patients and 22 of their parents and 28 physicians/dieticians were enrolled in this study. CHO counting was counted in “Carb”, with 1 Carb defined as 10 g of CHO. To evaluate the accuracy of CHO counting, 80 real-size photographs of cooked meals were presented to the subjects for Carb estimation. Carbs tended to be overestimated for foods containing relatively small amounts of Carbs. On the other hands, Carbs tended to be underestimated for foods with higher than 6 Carbs. Accurate estimation of the Carbs in food containing a large amount of rice was particularly difficult even in the subjects having the CHO counting experience. The Carb contents of high-calorie foods such as meats, fried foods, and desserts tended to be overestimated. This error was smaller in subjects having the CHO counting experience. In conclusion, misunderstanding of high-calorie dishes containing high amounts of CHO was observed in inexperienced subjects, indicating the efficacy of the current methodology of CHO counting. On the other hand it was difficult even for experienced subjects to assess the amount of seasoned rice, suggesting the need for a new methodology for accurate estimation. PMID:26568656

  6. Estimating the prevalence of potential enteropathogenic Escherichia coli and intimin gene diversity in a human community by monitoring sanitary sewage.

    PubMed

    Yang, Kun; Pagaling, Eulyn; Yan, Tao

    2014-01-01

    Presently, the understanding of bacterial enteric diseases in the community and their virulence factors relies almost exclusively on clinical disease reporting and examination of clinical pathogen isolates. This study aimed to investigate the feasibility of an alternative approach that monitors potential enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (EPEC) and enterohemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC) prevalence and intimin gene (eae) diversity in a community by directly quantifying and characterizing target virulence genes in the sanitary sewage. The quantitative PCR (qPCR) quantification of the eae, stx1, and stx2 genes in sanitary sewage samples collected over a 13-month period detected eae in all 13 monthly sewage samples at significantly higher abundance (93 to 7,240 calibrator cell equivalents [CCE]/100 ml) than stx1 and stx2, which were detected sporadically. The prevalence level of potential EPEC in the sanitary sewage was estimated by calculating the ratio of eae to uidA, which averaged 1.0% (σ = 0.4%) over the 13-month period. Cloning and sequencing of the eae gene directly from the sewage samples covered the majority of the eae diversity in the sewage and detected 17 unique eae alleles belonging to 14 subtypes. Among them, eae-β2 was identified to be the most prevalent subtype in the sewage, with the highest detection frequency in the clone libraries (41.2%) and within the different sampling months (85.7%). Additionally, sewage and environmental E. coli isolates were also obtained and used to determine the detection frequencies of the virulence genes as well as eae genetic diversity for comparison. PMID:24141131

  7. Estimating the Prevalence of Potential Enteropathogenic Escherichia coli and Intimin Gene Diversity in a Human Community by Monitoring Sanitary Sewage

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Kun; Pagaling, Eulyn

    2014-01-01

    Presently, the understanding of bacterial enteric diseases in the community and their virulence factors relies almost exclusively on clinical disease reporting and examination of clinical pathogen isolates. This study aimed to investigate the feasibility of an alternative approach that monitors potential enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (EPEC) and enterohemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC) prevalence and intimin gene (eae) diversity in a community by directly quantifying and characterizing target virulence genes in the sanitary sewage. The quantitative PCR (qPCR) quantification of the eae, stx1, and stx2 genes in sanitary sewage samples collected over a 13-month period detected eae in all 13 monthly sewage samples at significantly higher abundance (93 to 7,240 calibrator cell equivalents [CCE]/100 ml) than stx1 and stx2, which were detected sporadically. The prevalence level of potential EPEC in the sanitary sewage was estimated by calculating the ratio of eae to uidA, which averaged 1.0% (σ = 0.4%) over the 13-month period. Cloning and sequencing of the eae gene directly from the sewage samples covered the majority of the eae diversity in the sewage and detected 17 unique eae alleles belonging to 14 subtypes. Among them, eae-β2 was identified to be the most prevalent subtype in the sewage, with the highest detection frequency in the clone libraries (41.2%) and within the different sampling months (85.7%). Additionally, sewage and environmental E. coli isolates were also obtained and used to determine the detection frequencies of the virulence genes as well as eae genetic diversity for comparison. PMID:24141131

  8. Misreporting of dietary intake affects estimated nutrient intakes in low-income Spanish-speaking women.

    PubMed

    Banna, Jinan C; Fialkowski, Marie K; Townsend, Marilyn S

    2015-07-01

    Misreporting of dietary intake affects the validity of data collected and conclusions drawn in studies exploring diet and health outcomes. One consequence of misreporting is biological implausibility. Little is known regarding how accounting for biological implausibility of reported intake affects nutrient intake estimates in Hispanics, a rapidly growing demographic in the United States. Our study explores the effect of accounting for plausibility on nutrient intake estimates in a sample of Mexican-American women in northern California in 2008. Nutrient intakes are compared with Dietary Reference Intake recommendations, and intakes of Mexican-American women in a national survey are presented as a reference. Eighty-two women provided three 24-hour recalls. Reported energy intakes were classified as biologically plausible or implausible using the reported energy intakes to total energy expenditure cutoff of <0.76 or >1.24, with low-active physical activity levels used to estimate total energy expenditure. Differences in the means of nutrient intakes between implausible (n=36) and plausible (n=46) reporters of energy intake were examined by bivariate linear regression. Estimated energy, protein, cholesterol, dietary fiber, and vitamin E intakes were significantly higher in plausible reporters than implausible. There was a significant difference between the proportions of plausible vs implausible reporters meeting recommendations for several nutrients, with a larger proportion of plausible reporters meeting recommendations. Further research related to misreporting in Hispanic populations is warranted to explore the causes and effects of misreporting in studies measuring dietary intake, as well as actions to be taken to prevent or account for this issue. PMID:25132121

  9. Misreporting of Dietary Intake Affects Estimated Nutrient Intakes in Low-Income Spanish-Speaking Women

    PubMed Central

    Banna, Jinan C.; Fialkowski, Marie K.; Townsend, Marilyn S.

    2015-01-01

    Misreporting of dietary intake affects the validity of data collected and conclusions drawn in studies exploring diet and health outcomes. One consequence of misreporting is biological implausibility. Little is known regarding how accounting for biological implausibility of reported intake affects nutrient intake estimates in Hispanics, a rapidly growing demographic in the United States. Our study explores the effect of accounting for plausibility on nutrient intake estimates in a sample of Mexican-American women in northern California in 2008. Nutrient intakes are compared with Dietary Reference Intake recommendations, and intakes of Mexican-American women in a national survey are presented as a reference. Eighty-two women provided three 24-hour recalls. Reported energy intakes were classified as biologically plausible or implausible using the reported energy intakes to total energy expenditure cutoff of <0.76 or >1.24, with low-active physical activity levels used to estimate total energy expenditure. Differences in the means of nutrient intakes between implausible (n=36) and plausible (n=46) reporters of energy intake were examined by bivariate linear regression. Estimated energy, protein, cholesterol, dietary fiber, and vitamin E intakes were significantly higher in plausible reporters than implausible. There was a significant difference between the proportions of plausible vs implausible reporters meeting recommendations for several nutrients, with a larger proportion of plausible reporters meeting recommendations. Further research related to misreporting in Hispanic populations is warranted to explore the causes and effects of misreporting in studies measuring dietary intake, as well as actions to be taken to prevent or account for this issue. PMID:25132121

  10. Prevalence of HIV among MSM in Europe: comparison of self-reported diagnoses from a large scale internet survey and existing national estimates

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Country level comparisons of HIV prevalence among men having sex with men (MSM) is challenging for a variety of reasons, including differences in the definition and measurement of the denominator group, recruitment strategies and the HIV detection methods. To assess their comparability, self-reported data on HIV diagnoses in a 2010 pan-European MSM internet survey (EMIS) were compared with pre-existing estimates of HIV prevalence in MSM from a variety of European countries. Methods The first pan-European survey of MSM recruited more than 180,000 men from 38 countries across Europe and included questions on the year and result of last HIV test. HIV prevalence as measured in EMIS was compared with national estimates of HIV prevalence based on studies using biological measurements or modelling approaches to explore the degree of agreement between different methods. Existing estimates were taken from Dublin Declaration Monitoring Reports or UNAIDS country fact sheets, and were verified by contacting the nominated contact points for HIV surveillance in EU/EEA countries. Results The EMIS self-reported measurements of HIV prevalence were strongly correlated with existing estimates based on biological measurement and modelling studies using surveillance data (R2=0.70 resp. 0.72). In most countries HIV positive MSM appeared disproportionately likely to participate in EMIS, and prevalences as measured in EMIS are approximately twice the estimates based on existing estimates. Conclusions Comparison of diagnosed HIV prevalence as measured in EMIS with pre-existing estimates based on biological measurements using varied sampling frames (e.g. Respondent Driven Sampling, Time and Location Sampling) demonstrates a high correlation and suggests similar selection biases from both types of studies. For comparison with modelled estimates the self-selection bias of the Internet survey with increased participation of men diagnosed with HIV has to be taken into account. For

  11. Prevalence, incidence estimations, and risk factors of Toxoplasma gondii infection in Germany: a representative, cross-sectional, serological study

    PubMed Central

    Wilking, Hendrik; Thamm, Michael; Stark, Klaus; Aebischer, Toni; Seeber, Frank

    2016-01-01

    Representative data on the extent of endemicity, burden, and risk of human toxoplasmosis are scarce. We assessed the prevalence and determinants of seropositivity of Toxoplasma gondii among adult participants of a nationwide representative cross-sectional survey in Germany. Sera collected from a representative cohort of adults (age 18–79; n = 6,663) in Germany were tested for anti-T. gondii IgG antibodies. Interview-derived data were used to evaluate associated factors. Multivariable logistic regression was applied using sampling weights and accounting for survey design cluster effects. Seroprevalence increased from 20% (95%-CI:17–23%) in the 18–29 age group to 77% (95%-CI:73–81%) in the 70–79 age group. Male gender, keeping cats and BMI ≥30 were independent risk factors for seropositivity, while being vegetarian and high socio-economic status were negatively associated. Based on these data, we estimate 1.1% of adults and 1.3% of women aged 18–49 to seroconvert each year. This implies 6,393 seroconversions annually during pregnancies. We conclude that T. gondii infection in Germany is highly prevalent and that eating habits (consuming raw meat) appear to be of high epidemiological relevance. High numbers of seroconversions during pregnancies pose substantial risks for unborn children. Efforts to raise awareness of toxoplasmosis in public health programs targeting to T. gondii transmission control are therefore strongly advocated. PMID:26936108

  12. Prevalence, incidence estimations, and risk factors of Toxoplasma gondii infection in Germany: a representative, cross-sectional, serological study.

    PubMed

    Wilking, Hendrik; Thamm, Michael; Stark, Klaus; Aebischer, Toni; Seeber, Frank

    2016-01-01

    Representative data on the extent of endemicity, burden, and risk of human toxoplasmosis are scarce. We assessed the prevalence and determinants of seropositivity of Toxoplasma gondii among adult participants of a nationwide representative cross-sectional survey in Germany. Sera collected from a representative cohort of adults (age 18-79; n = 6,663) in Germany were tested for anti-T. gondii IgG antibodies. Interview-derived data were used to evaluate associated factors. Multivariable logistic regression was applied using sampling weights and accounting for survey design cluster effects. Seroprevalence increased from 20% (95%-CI:17-23%) in the 18-29 age group to 77% (95%-CI:73-81%) in the 70-79 age group. Male gender, keeping cats and BMI ≥30 were independent risk factors for seropositivity, while being vegetarian and high socio-economic status were negatively associated. Based on these data, we estimate 1.1% of adults and 1.3% of women aged 18-49 to seroconvert each year. This implies 6,393 seroconversions annually during pregnancies. We conclude that T. gondii infection in Germany is highly prevalent and that eating habits (consuming raw meat) appear to be of high epidemiological relevance. High numbers of seroconversions during pregnancies pose substantial risks for unborn children. Efforts to raise awareness of toxoplasmosis in public health programs targeting to T. gondii transmission control are therefore strongly advocated. PMID:26936108

  13. A comparative study of prevalence-based incidence estimation techniques with application to dementia data in Germany.

    PubMed

    Landwehr, Sandra; Brinks, Ralph

    2016-02-28

    Dementia is becoming a major health burden, which is mainly due to the increasing life expectancy in many developed countries. To describe the disease progression of individuals, multistate models are generally appropriate tools. These models allow the individuals to move along a path consisting of a finite number of disease states. We consider a simplifying illness-death model in which the subjects progress through the states healthy, diseased and dead. We use this model to study analytic relationships between the prevalence, incidence and mortality rates of irreversible diseases that have been applied in the past. One of these approaches is a rather recently proposed technique based on an ordinary differential equation (ODE). We conduct a simulation study to compare the performance of two suggested numerical approximations of this ODE with three alternative techniques, the common goal of which is to estimate age-specific incidence from cross-sectional information. The quality of the estimation methods is further explored using data on dementia in Germany. In the simulation scenarios as well as in the dementia data setting, the ODE method turns out to be the predominant technique with regard to the quality of the estimation of the known incidence regimes. PMID:26376995

  14. Data from frequency-volume charts versus filling cystometric estimated capacities and prevalence of instability in men with lower urinary tract symptoms suggestive of benign prostatic hyperplasia.

    PubMed

    van Venrooij, Ger E P M; Eckhardt, Mardy D; Gisolf, Karel W H; Boon, Tom A

    2002-01-01

    The aim was to examine associations of filling cystometric estimated compliance, capacities, and prevalence of bladder instability with data from frequency-volume charts in a well-defined group of men with lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) suggestive of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). Men with LUTS suggestive of BPH were included if they met the criteria of the International Consensus Committee on BPH, i.e., they voided more than 150 mL during uroflowmetry, their residual volume and prostate size were estimated, and they completed frequency-volume charts correctly. From the frequency-volume charts, voiding habits, and fluid intake in the daytime and at night were evaluated. Filling cystometric studies were performed in these men as well. Decreased compliance was an exceptional finding. Cystometric capacity and especially effective capacity (cystometric capacity minus residual volume) corresponded significantly with the maximum voided volume on the frequency-volume charts. Effective capacity was almost twice as high as the average voided volume. Minimum voided volume on frequency-volume charts was not related to filling cystometric data. The presence of instability in the supine or sitting position or in both positions was not significantly associated with smaller voided volumes, higher nocturia, or diuria. Filling cystometric capacities were strongly associated with maximal and mean voided volumes derived from frequency-volume charts. The presence of detrusor instability during filling cystometry did not significantly affect voided volumes, diuria, or nocturia PMID:11857662

  15. Exonic Splicing Mutations Are More Prevalent than Currently Estimated and Can Be Predicted by Using In Silico Tools

    PubMed Central

    Soukarieh, Omar; Gaildrat, Pascaline; Hamieh, Mohamad; Drouet, Aurélie; Baert-Desurmont, Stéphanie; Frébourg, Thierry; Tosi, Mario; Martins, Alexandra

    2016-01-01

    The identification of a causal mutation is essential for molecular diagnosis and clinical management of many genetic disorders. However, even if next-generation exome sequencing has greatly improved the detection of nucleotide changes, the biological interpretation of most exonic variants remains challenging. Moreover, particular attention is typically given to protein-coding changes often neglecting the potential impact of exonic variants on RNA splicing. Here, we used the exon 10 of MLH1, a gene implicated in hereditary cancer, as a model system to assess the prevalence of RNA splicing mutations among all single-nucleotide variants identified in a given exon. We performed comprehensive minigene assays and analyzed patient’s RNA when available. Our study revealed a staggering number of splicing mutations in MLH1 exon 10 (77% of the 22 analyzed variants), including mutations directly affecting splice sites and, particularly, mutations altering potential splicing regulatory elements (ESRs). We then used this thoroughly characterized dataset, together with experimental data derived from previous studies on BRCA1, BRCA2, CFTR and NF1, to evaluate the predictive power of 3 in silico approaches recently described as promising tools for pinpointing ESR-mutations. Our results indicate that ΔtESRseq and ΔHZEI-based approaches not only discriminate which variants affect splicing, but also predict the direction and severity of the induced splicing defects. In contrast, the ΔΨ-based approach did not show a compelling predictive power. Our data indicates that exonic splicing mutations are more prevalent than currently appreciated and that they can now be predicted by using bioinformatics methods. These findings have implications for all genetically-caused diseases. PMID:26761715

  16. Using hepatitis C prevalence to estimate HIV epidemic potential among people who inject drugs in the Middle East and North Africa

    PubMed Central

    Mumtaz, Ghina R.; Weiss, Helen A.; Vickerman, Peter; Larke, Natasha; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: The objective of this study is to understand the association between HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) among people who inject drugs (PWIDs) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and to estimate HIV epidemic potential among PWIDs using HCV prevalence. Design/methods: Using data from a systematic review of HIV and HCV among PWID in MENA, we conducted two analyses, stratified by HIV epidemic state: a meta-analysis of the risk ratio of HCV to HIV prevalence (RRHCV/HIV) using DerSimonian-Laird random-effects models, and multivariable linear regression predicting log HIV prevalence. The HCV-HIV association from both analyses was used to estimate HIV prevalence at endemic equilibrium. We compared predicted with current HIV prevalence to classify HIV epidemic potential at country-level as low, medium or high, using predefined criteria. Results: The review identified 88 HCV prevalence measures among PWID in MENA, of which 54 had a paired HIV prevalence measure. The pooled RRHCV/HIV were 16, 4 and 3 in low-level, emerging and established HIV epidemics, respectively. There was a significant linear relationship between HCV and HIV at endemic equilibrium (P = 0.002). The predicted endemic HIV prevalence ranged between 8% (Tunisia) and 22% (Pakistan). Of the nine countries with data, five have high and three medium HIV epidemic potential. Only one country, Pakistan, appears to have reached saturation. Conclusion: HCV prevalence could be a predictor of future endemic HIV prevalence. In MENA, we predict that there will be further HIV epidemic growth among PWID. The proposed methodology can identify PWID populations that should be prioritized for HIV prevention interventions. PMID:26372281

  17. How errors in the calibration of GRACE accelerometers affect the estimates of temporal gravity fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tregoning, P.; McClusky, S.; Purcell, A. P.; McQueen, H.

    2015-12-01

    Non-gravitational accelerations acting on each of the GRACE satellites are measured in the along-track, cross-track and radial directions by the accelerometers onboard each satellite. The calibration of the observed non-gravitational accelerations requires determining a scaling factor and (at least) an offset for the observations in each of the three directions. We demonstrate in this presentation how small errors in the scale factors used to calibrate the accelerometer observations affect the noise level in the estimated temporal gravity field. We performed a parameter space search to find the optimal scale factors that generated the smallest prefit range-rate residuals and found that we can model the satellite orbits without the use of any empirical parameters, whilst still being able to identify the temporal gravity field signal in the prefit KBRR residuals. We will describe some physical conditions when the satellites are in the shadow of the Earth that we use to constrain the estimates of calibration biases and scales and show how the noise level of the estimated temporal gravity field varies with and without the use of the optimal calibration values for the accelerometer observations. A similar approach will be both required and effective to calibrate the accelerometers onboard the GRACE Follow-On mission.

  18. A method for estimating the effective number of loci affecting a quantitative character.

    PubMed

    Slatkin, Montgomery

    2013-11-01

    A likelihood method is introduced that jointly estimates the number of loci and the additive effect of alleles that account for the genetic variance of a normally distributed quantitative character in a randomly mating population. The method assumes that measurements of the character are available from one or both parents and an arbitrary number of full siblings. The method uses the fact, first recognized by Karl Pearson in 1904, that the variance of a character among offspring depends on both the parental phenotypes and on the number of loci. Simulations show that the method performs well provided that data from a sufficient number of families (on the order of thousands) are available. This method assumes that the loci are in Hardy-Weinberg and linkage equilibrium but does not assume anything about the linkage relationships. It performs equally well if all loci are on the same non-recombining chromosome provided they are in linkage equilibrium. The method can be adapted to take account of loci already identified as being associated with the character of interest. In that case, the method estimates the number of loci not already known to affect the character. The method applied to measurements of crown-rump length in 281 family trios in a captive colony of African green monkeys (Chlorocebus aethiopus sabaeus) estimates the number of loci to be 112 and the additive effect to be 0.26 cm. A parametric bootstrap analysis shows that a rough confidence interval has a lower bound of 14 loci. PMID:23973416

  19. Factors affecting the estimated probabilistic acute dietary exposure to captan from apple consumption.

    PubMed

    Zentai, A; Sali, J; Szabó, I J; Szeitzné-Szabó, M; Ambrus, A; Vásárhelyi, A

    2013-01-01

    The effect of the number of pesticide residue values below the LOQ/LOD of analytical methods, the variability of residues in individual fruits, mass of fruit units and the number of bootstrap iterations was studied on the probabilistically estimated acute exposure of consumers. The 4720 daily apple consumption data and the results of 1239 apple sample analyses for captan residues, performed within the Hungarian monitoring programme between 2005 and 2011, were used in this study as model matrix. Up to about 95th percentile exposure (µg/(kg bw·day)), simply multiplying each residue in composite samples with each consumption value gave similar estimates to those obtained with the complex procedure taking also into account the mass of and residues in individual fruits. However, the exposure above the 95th percentile calculated with the complex procedure gradually increased with increasing percentile level compared to the simple procedure. Including the high number of non-detects reduced the estimated exposure, which was the highest when only the residues measured in treated fruits were taken into account. The number of bootstrap iterations between 100 and 10,000 did not significantly affect the calculated exposure. The 99.99th percentile exposure amounted to 17.9% of the acute reference dose of 300 µg/(kg bw·day) for women of childbearing age. PMID:23742211

  20. Estimated prevalence of mental disorders and the desire for social distance--results from population surveys in two large German cities.

    PubMed

    von dem Knesebeck, Olaf; Mnich, Eva; Kofahl, Christopher; Makowski, Anna Christin; Lambert, Martin; Karow, Anne; Bock, Thomas; Härter, Martin; Angermeyer, Matthias C

    2013-10-30

    The study is focused on two research questions: What are the public's estimates of the prevalence of depression, schizophrenia, bulimia nervosa and anorexia nervosa? What is the relationship between the estimated prevalence of the mental disorders and the public's desire for social distance? Analyses are based on a telephone survey in two large German cities (Hamburg and Munich, N=2014, response rate 51%). Vignettes with typical signs and symptoms suggestive of a depression, schizophrenia, bulimia nervosa and anorexia nervosa were presented. Respondents were asked about the lifetime prevalence of the mental disorders and their desire for social distance. Across all four disorders under study the respondents markedly overestimate the rates of lifetime prevalence. Increasing prevalence estimation is associated with a significant decrease in the desire for social distance in case of schizophrenia. As for depression, anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa there are no significant associations. Many campaigns aimed at reducing stigma emphasize the high prevalence of mental disorders. The assumption of these campaigns is that reduction of the perceived distinction leads to a decrease of the desire for social distance towards those afflicted. Our results indicate that this may not generally be an effective way to reduce stigma. PMID:23623451

  1. The prevalence of inflammatory back pain: population-based estimates from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2009–10

    PubMed Central

    Weisman, Michael H; Witter, James P; Reveille, John D

    2014-01-01

    Objective To estimate the current US inflammatory back pain (IBP) prevalence using four published case definitions. Methods Analysis of an IBP data collection instrument specifically designed for the 2009–10 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Subjects were 5103 US adults ages 20–69 with complete data. IBP prevalence as determined by Calin et al criteria, European Spondylarthropathy Study Group (ESSG) criteria, and Berlin criteria 8a and 7b. Results Age-adjusted US prevalence of IBP by Calin criteria was 5.0% (95% CI 4.2% to 5.8%). Prevalence of IBP was 5.6% (95% CI 4.7% to 6.5%) by ESSG criteria, and 5.8% (95% CI 5.2% to 6.4%) and 6.0% (95% CI 4.9% to 7.1%) by Berlin Criteria 8a and 7b, respectively. IBP prevalence did not differ significantly by age groups or between men and women. IBP prevalence was significantly lower among non-Hispanic black persons compared with non-Hispanic white persons for the Calin and ESSG IBP criteria. For the ESSG and Berlin 7b criteria, non-Hispanic white persons had significantly higher IBP prevalences compared with Mexican Americans. Conclusions IBP is associated with spondyloarthritis. Awareness of the prevalence of IBP may be useful for planning future epidemiological studies as well as development and validation of diagnostic and classification criteria for specific clinically defined diseases. PMID:22791746

  2. Estimating dietary micronutrient supply and the prevalence of inadequate intakes from national Food Balance Sheets in the South Asia regiona.

    PubMed

    Mark, Henry E; Houghton, Lisa A; Gibson, Rosalind S; Monterrosa, Eva; Kraemer, Klaus

    2016-01-01

    Micronutrient deficiencies continue to be a major public health concern worldwide with many South Asian countries suffering a significant proportion of the global burden. A lack of nationally representative data on micronutrient deficiencies hampers sustained action to address the problem. Using data on the national food supply produced by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, and international food composition tables, the present study estimated the prevalence of inadequacy of seven micronutrients (vitamin A, thiamine, riboflavin, folate, vitamin B-12, zinc and calcium) in seven South Asian countries--Bangladesh, India, Iran, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The estimated average requirement cut-point method was employed to determine the likelihood of inadequate micronutrient intakes. We report multiple micronutrient inadequacies in the food supply in the region, especially in the low and lower-middle income countries. Of the seven micronutrients investigated, calcium had the highest risk levels of inadequacy. Folate, riboflavin, vitamin B-12 and zinc were also deemed to be at high risk of inadequacy, although results differed markedly between countries. Various strategies to combat micronutrient deficiencies are currently underway in these countries. In order to facilitate the implementation of these efforts, the collection of nationally representative nutritional assessment survey data are urgently required to ascertain the true burden of micronutrient malnutrition. PMID:27222421

  3. Sediment quality thresholds: Estimates from hockey stick regression of liver lesion prevalence in English sole (Pleuronectes vetulus)

    SciTech Connect

    Horness, B.H.; Lomax, D.P.; Johnson, L.L.; Myers, M.S.; Pierce, S.M.; Collier, T.K.

    1998-01-01

    Comprehensive, integrative assessments of coastal sediment quality are best effected by using large, diverse data sets that include measures of biological dysfunction observed in association with chronic exposure to sediment contaminants. Under the auspices of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration`s National Status and Trends Program, the National Benthic Surveillance Project accumulated a database of synoptic sediment contaminant concentrations and indices of biological effects that were measured in indigenous animals collected during field surveys conducted from 1984 to 1994. This compilation of data provided the opportunity to develop a new approach for determining sediment quality criteria to add to the current repertoire of environmental assessment tools. Using a two-segment hockey stick regression, statistically significant chemical thresholds of biological effects were estimated for hepatic lesion prevalences in English sole (Pleuronectes vetulus, formerly Parophrys vetulus) in relation to sediment concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. These threshold estimates are notably lower than many of those reported for other techniques. Application of this relatively simple dose-response model to subacute, chronic effects that are involved in pepatocarcinogenesis and associated with sediment toxicant content (1) reflects the link between toxicopathic disease progression and conditions observed in benthic fish exposed to contaminants and (2) provides endpoints for assessing sediment quality contaminant concentrations that are not necessarily acutely fatal but may have long-term health implications for populations that are chronically exposed.

  4. Alternative Methods for Defining Osteoarthritis and the Impact on Estimating Prevalence in a US Population-Based Survey

    PubMed Central

    Cisternas, Miriam G.; Murphy, Louise; Sacks, Jeffrey J.; Solomon, Daniel H.; Pasta, David J.; Helmick, Charles G.

    2015-01-01

    Objective Provide a contemporary estimate of osteoarthritis (OA) by comparing accuracy and prevalence of alternative definitions of OA. Methods The Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) household component (HC) records respondent-reported medical conditions as open-ended responses; professional coders translate these responses into ICD-9-CM codes for the medical conditions files. Using these codes and other data from the MEPS-HC medical conditions files, we constructed three case definitions of OA and assessed them against medical provider diagnoses of ICD-9-CM 715 [osteoarthrosis and allied disorders] in a MEPS subsample. The three definitions were: 1) strict = ICD-9-CM 715; 2) expanded = ICD-9-CM 715, 716 [other and unspecified arthropathies], OR 719 [other and unspecified disorders of joint]); and 3) probable = strict OR expanded + respondent-reported prior diagnosis of OA or other arthritis excluding rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Results Sensitivity and specificity of the three definitions were: strict – 34.6% and 97.5%; expanded – 73.8% and 90.5%; and probable – 62.9% and 93.5%. Conclusion The strict definition for OA (ICD-9-CM 715) excludes many individuals with OA. The probable definition of OA has the optimal combination of sensitivity and specificity relative to the two other MEPS-based definitions and yields a national annual estimate of 30.8 million adults with OA (13.4% of US adult population) for 2008 – 2011. PMID:26315529

  5. A humanitarian preparedness toolbox: estimating flood affected figures and exposure of livelihoods to future floods events, using freely available datasets.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paron, Paolo; von Hagen, Craig; Peppino Disperati, Stefano; Hermansyah, Budi; Shaheen, Imra; Jan, Qasim; Berloffa, Andrea; Khan, Ruby; Fakhre, Alam

    2013-04-01

    Pakistan is highly disaster-prone, with three major flood disasters occurred in the past three years, yet major losses are not inevitable. Farming-based families still struggling to recover from 2010 and 2011 floods have again faced another bad monsoon season in 2012. Meanwhile, the likelihood of yet more natural disasters in the future is high as the phenomenon of climate change is increasing the prevalence of extreme weather conditions. Even with less rainfall, the risk of flooding this year remains high, while many villages have not fully recovered from the 2011-2012 floods. It is of utmost importance to support the most vulnerable rural communities to recover their flood-affected livelihoods. In the meantime, prioritizing disaster preparedness through flood hazard and population mapping is crucial to ensure that realistic contingency plans are in place to deliver an effective and timely response and reduce the impact of floods before they strike. To increase preparedness in future floods, an integrated approach that builds the resilience of flood affected community and enhances emergency preparedness based on reliable data is critical. We present here the innovative methodology developed for estimating population and livelihood that could potentially be affected by a future flood scenario, as well as a methodology for knowing where these people are located, along with an overview of their livelihood pattern. This project has used only freely available dataset, due to the urgency of providing a toolbox to the humanitarian community and the absence of readily available detailed information on natural hazards and exposure in Pakistan. The estimated figures resulting from this project, would provide the Food Security stakeholders with adequate information and data for programming a tailored response in case of floods during future monsoon season. For the purpose of preparedness, understanding the risks, and its potential magnitude, is crucial to provide decision

  6. The Use of Innovative Two-Component Cluster Analysis and Serodiagnostic Cut-Off Methods to Estimate Prevalence of Pertussis Reinfections.

    PubMed

    van Twillert, Inonge; Bonačić Marinović, Axel A; van Gaans-van den Brink, Jacqueline A M; Kuipers, Betsy; Berbers, Guy A M; van der Maas, Nicoline A T; Verheij, Theo J M; Versteegh, Florens G A; Teunis, Peter F M; van Els, Cécile A C M

    2016-01-01

    Bordetella pertussis circulates even in highly vaccinated countries affecting all age groups. Insight into the scale of concealed reinfections is important as they may contribute to transmission. We therefore investigated whether current single-point serodiagnostic methods are suitable to estimate the prevalence of pertussis reinfection. Two methods based on IgG-Ptx plasma levels alone were used to evaluate the proportion of renewed seroconversions in the past year in a cohort of retrospective pertussis cases ≥ 24 months after a proven earlier symptomatic infection. A Dutch population database was used as a baseline. Applying a classical 62.5 IU/ml IgG-Ptx cut-off, we calculated a seroprevalence of 15% in retrospective cases, higher than the 10% observed in the population baseline. However, this method could not discriminate between renewed seroconversion and waning of previously infection-enhanced IgG-Ptx levels. Two-component cluster analysis of the IgG-Ptx datasets of both pertussis cases and the general population revealed a continuum of intermediate IgG-Ptx levels, preventing the establishment of a positive population and the comparison of prevalence by this alternative method. Next, we investigated the complementary serodiagnostic value of IgA-Ptx levels. When modelling datasets including both convalescent and retrospective cases we obtained new cut-offs for both IgG-Ptx and IgA-Ptx that were optimized to evaluate renewed seroconversions in the ex-cases target population. Combining these cut-offs two-dimensionally, we calculated 8.0% reinfections in retrospective cases, being below the baseline seroprevalence. Our study for the first time revealed the shortcomings of using only IgG-Ptx data in conventional serodiagnostic methods to determine pertussis reinfections. Improved results can be obtained with two-dimensional serodiagnostic profiling. The proportion of reinfections thus established suggests a relatively increased period of protection to renewed

  7. The Use of Innovative Two-Component Cluster Analysis and Serodiagnostic Cut-Off Methods to Estimate Prevalence of Pertussis Reinfections

    PubMed Central

    van Twillert, Inonge; Bonačić Marinović, Axel A.; van Gaans-van den Brink, Jacqueline A. M.; Kuipers, Betsy; Berbers, Guy A. M.; van der Maas, Nicoline A. T.; Verheij, Theo J. M.; Versteegh, Florens G. A.; Teunis, Peter F. M.; van Els, Cécile A. C. M.

    2016-01-01

    Bordetella pertussis circulates even in highly vaccinated countries affecting all age groups. Insight into the scale of concealed reinfections is important as they may contribute to transmission. We therefore investigated whether current single-point serodiagnostic methods are suitable to estimate the prevalence of pertussis reinfection. Two methods based on IgG-Ptx plasma levels alone were used to evaluate the proportion of renewed seroconversions in the past year in a cohort of retrospective pertussis cases ≥ 24 months after a proven earlier symptomatic infection. A Dutch population database was used as a baseline. Applying a classical 62.5 IU/ml IgG-Ptx cut-off, we calculated a seroprevalence of 15% in retrospective cases, higher than the 10% observed in the population baseline. However, this method could not discriminate between renewed seroconversion and waning of previously infection-enhanced IgG-Ptx levels. Two-component cluster analysis of the IgG-Ptx datasets of both pertussis cases and the general population revealed a continuum of intermediate IgG-Ptx levels, preventing the establishment of a positive population and the comparison of prevalence by this alternative method. Next, we investigated the complementary serodiagnostic value of IgA-Ptx levels. When modelling datasets including both convalescent and retrospective cases we obtained new cut-offs for both IgG-Ptx and IgA-Ptx that were optimized to evaluate renewed seroconversions in the ex-cases target population. Combining these cut-offs two-dimensionally, we calculated 8.0% reinfections in retrospective cases, being below the baseline seroprevalence. Our study for the first time revealed the shortcomings of using only IgG-Ptx data in conventional serodiagnostic methods to determine pertussis reinfections. Improved results can be obtained with two-dimensional serodiagnostic profiling. The proportion of reinfections thus established suggests a relatively increased period of protection to renewed

  8. Trypanosomes and haemosporidia in the buzzard (Buteo buteo) and sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus): factors affecting the prevalence of parasites.

    PubMed

    Svobodová, Milena; Weidinger, Karel; Peške, Lubomír; Volf, Petr; Votýpka, Jan; Voříšek, Petr

    2015-02-01

    The prevalences of heteroxenous parasites are influenced by the interplay of three main actors: hosts, vectors, and the parasites themselves. We studied blood protists in the nesting populations of raptors in two different areas of the Czech Republic. Altogether, 788 nestlings and 258 adult Eurasian sparrowhawks (Accipiter nisus) and 321 nestlings and 86 adult common buzzards (Buteo buteo) were screened for parasites by the microscopic examination of blood smears and by cultivation. We examined the role of shared vectors and parasite phylogenetic relationships on the occurrence of parasites. In different years and hosts, trypanosome prevalence ranged between 1.9 and 87.2 %, that of Leucocytozoon between 1.9 and 100 %, and Haemoproteus between 0 and 72.7 %. Coinfections with Leucocytozoon and Trypanosoma, phylogenetically distant parasites but both transmitted by blackflies (Simuliidae), were more frequent than coinfections with Leucocytozoon and Haemoproteus, phylogenetically closely related parasites transmitted by different vectors (blackflies and biting midges (Ceratopogonidae), respectively). For example, 16.6 % buzzard nestlings were coinfected with Trypanosoma and Leucocytozoon, while only 4.8 % with Leucocytozoon and Haemoproteus and 0.3 % with Trypanosoma and Haemoproteus. Nestlings in the same nest tended to have the same infection status. Furthermore, prevalence increased with the age of nestlings and with Julian date, while brood size had only a weak negative/positive effect on prevalence at the individual/brood level. Prevalences in a particular avian host species also varied between study sites and years. All these factors should thus be considered while comparing prevalences from different studies, the impact of vectors being the most important. We conclude that phylogenetically unrelated parasites that share the same vectors tend to have similar distributions within the host populations of two different raptor species. PMID:25403377

  9. Thermostatistical estimations of vapor-state molecules affected by gravity in a heat pipe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Etori, Kanji

    1988-03-01

    Some thermodynamical properties of vapor state molecules in a heat pipe are analytically examined in an unsteady quasi-thermoequilibrium state. First, as a analytical procedure, the Hamiltonian of a gas molecule is formulated as the sum of those energies of the translation, the intermolecular interaction, the rotation, the vibration and the work with respect to the ensemble average of an unsteady velocity of a vapor state molecule in a gravity. The partition function and the free energy in this system are secondly introduced by using the Hamiltonian. According to the thermodynamical relations, the entropy and the specific heat per mol of the vapor state molecules are derived from the free energy and are finally estimated to examine the shifts affected by the gravity from the conventional values which do not include any gravitational term.

  10. Intraspecies variation in BMR does not affect estimates of early hominin total daily energy expenditure.

    PubMed

    Froehle, Andrew W; Schoeninger, Margaret J

    2006-12-01

    We conducted a meta-analysis of 45 studies reporting basal metabolic rate (BMR) data for Homo sapiens and Pan troglodytes to determine the effects of sex, age, and latitude (a proxy for climate, in humans only). BMR was normalized for body size using fat-free mass in humans and body mass in chimpanzees. We found no effect of sex in either species and no age effect in chimpanzees. In humans, juveniles differed significantly from adults (ANCOVA: P < 0.001), and senescent adults differed significantly from adults younger than 50 years (P < 0.001). Europeans differed significantly from tropical populations (P < 0.001). On the basis of these observations, we derived new equations describing the relationship between BMR and body size, and used them to predict total daily energy expenditure (TEE) in four early hominin species. Our predictions concur with previous TEE estimates (i.e. Leonard and Robertson: Am J Phys Anthropol 102 (1997) 265-281), and support the conclusion that TEE increased greatly with H. erectus. Our results show that intraspecific variation in BMR does not affect TEE estimates for interspecific comparisons. Comparisons of more closely related groups such as humans and Neandertals, however, may benefit from consideration of this variation. PMID:16941603

  11. Hepatic and extra-hepatic sequelae, and prevalence of viral hepatitis C infection estimated from routine data in at-risk groups

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Concerns about the hepatitis C virus (HCV) are due to the high risk of chronic liver disease and poor treatment efficacy. Synthesizing evidence from multiple data sources is becoming widely used to estimate HCV-infection prevalence. This paper aims to estimate the prevalence of HCV infection, and the hepatic and extrahepatic sequelae in at-risk groups, using routinely collected data in the Lazio region, Italy. Methods HCV laboratory surveillance and dialysis, hospital discharge, and drug-user registers were used as information sources to identify at-risk groups and to estimate HCV prevalence and sequelae. Full name and birth date were used as linkage keys for the various health registries. Prevalence was estimated as the percentage of cases within the general population and the at-risk groups, with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) from 1997 to 2001. The risk of sequelae was estimated through a follow-up of hospital discharges up to December 31, 2004 and calculated as the prevalence ratio in HCV-positive and HCV-negative people, within each at-risk group, with 95% CI. Results There were 65,127 HCV-infected people in the study period; the prevalence was 1.24% (95%CI = 1.23%-1.25%) in the whole population, higher in males and older adults. Drug users (35.1%; 95%CI = 34.6-35.7) and dialysis patients (21.1%; 95%CI = 20.2%-22.0%) showed the highest values. Medical procedures with little exposure to blood resulted in higher estimates, ranging between 1.3% and 3.4%, which was not conclusively attributable to the surgical procedures. Cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma and encephalopathy were the most frequent hepatic sequelae; cryoglobulinaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma were the most frequent extrahepatic sequelae. Conclusions Synthesising data from multiple routine sources improved estimates of HCV prevalence and sequelae in dialysis patients and drug users, although prevalence validity should be assessed in survey and sequelae need a well

  12. Estimating hidden prevalence in Hansen's disease through diagnosis delay and grade of disability at time of diagnosis.

    PubMed

    Ferreira, J; Mengue, S S; Wagner, M B; Duncan, B B

    2000-12-01

    The objective of the present study was to propose a new method for the calculation of estimated hidden prevalence (EHP) in Hansen's disease (HD). We analyzed the records of 4142 HD patients diagnosed in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, between 1970 and 1991. Out of these 4142 cases, 3291 patients had their grade of disability (GD) evaluated at the time of diagnosis and provided information about the time elapsed between the appearance of the symptoms and the moment when HD was identified by a physician (diagnosis delay, DD). Mean DD for the sample (in years) was 1.51 for disability grade 0, 2.14 for grade 1, 4.46 for grade 2, and 9.64 for grade 2. EHP was calculated taking into account only two strata of GD using the formula HP = [(NC-GD 0/1) x 2.0 + (CN-GD 2/3) x 5.0]/(CGE x PCP), where: NC-GD 0/1 = mean annual number of newly detected grades 0 or 1 cases; CN-GD 2/3 = mean annual number of newly detected grades 2 or 3 cases; CGE = proportion of newly detected cases with GD evaluated; PCP = proportion of the population covered by the state HD control program; 2.0 and 5.0 correspond to an approximation of the mean time in years of DD in each respective stratum of GD. Applying this model, we found an EHP of 529 cases which translates to an excess of 0.58 cases/10,000 population. We also conducted a multivariate analysis using a logistic regression model. This analysis revealed that, in addition to DD, other variables such as clinical form, age group, sex and mode of detection were independent risk factors for the presence of disabilities. We also found two significant effect modification factors: DD versus clinical form and DD versus age group. Taking these findings into consideration, a more complex model was used to calculate the EHP with 16 strata (defined by clinical form of the disease, age group, and GD from 0 to 3). An EHP of 502 cases (excess of 0.55/10,000) was obtained with this more complex model. This result differs only 5% from that of the

  13. Comparing HIV prevalence estimates from prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission programme and the antenatal HIV surveillance in Addis Ababa

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background In the absence of reliable data, antenatal HIV surveillance has been used to monitor the HIV epidemic since the late 1980s. Currently, routine data from Prevention of Mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) programmes are increasingly available. Evaluating whether the PMTCT programme reports provide comparable HIV prevalence estimates with the antenatal surveillance reports is important. In this study, we compared HIV prevalence estimates from routine PMTCT programme and antenatal surveillance in Addis Ababa with the aim to come up with evidence based recommendation. Methods Summary data were collected from PMTCT programmes and antenatal surveillance reports within the catchment of Addis Ababa. The PMTCT programme data were obtained from routine monthly reports from 2004 to 2009 and from published antenatal HIV surveillance reports from 2003 to 2009. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics. Results In Addis Ababa, PMTCT sites had increased from six in 2004 to 54 in 2009. The site expansion was accompanied by an increased number of women testing. There were marked increases in the rate of HIV testing following the introduction of routine opt-out HIV testing approach. Paralleling these increases, the HIV prevalence showed a steady decline from 10.0% in 2004 to 4.5% in 2009. There were five antenatal surveillance sites from 2003 to 2007 in Addis Ababa and they increased to seven by 2009. Four rounds of surveillance data from five sites showed a declining trend in HIV prevalence over the years. The overall antenatal surveillance data also showed that the HIV prevalence among antenatal attendees had declined from 12.4% in 2003 to 5.5% in 2009. The HIV prevalence estimates from PMTCT programme were 6.2% and 4.5% and from antenatal surveillance 6.1 and 5.5% in 2008 and 2009 respectively. Conclusions There were consistent HIV prevalence estimates from PMTCT programme and from antenatal surveillance reports. Both data sources showed a marked decline in

  14. Age, season and spatio-temporal factors affecting the prevalence of Echinococcus multilocularis and Taenia taeniaeformis in Arvicola terrestris

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Taenia taeniaeformis and the related zoonotic cestode Echinococcus multilocularis both infect the water vole Arvicola terrestris. We investigated the effect of age, spatio-temporal and season-related factors on the prevalence of these parasites in their shared intermediate host. The absolute age of the voles was calculated based on their eye lens weights, and we included the mean day temperature and mean precipitation experienced by each individual as independent factors. Results Overall prevalences of E. multilocularis and T. taeniaeformis were 15.1% and 23.4%, respectively, in 856 A. terrestris trapped in the canton Zürich, Switzerland. Prevalences were lower in young (≤ 3 months: E. multilocularis 7.6%, T. taeniaeformis 17.9%) than in older animals (>7 months: 32.6% and 34.8%). Only 12 of 129 E. multilocularis-infected voles harboured protoscoleces. Similar proportions of animals with several strobilocerci were found in T. taeniaeformis infected voles of <5 months and ≥5 months of age (12.8% and 11.9%). Multivariate analyses revealed strong spatio-temporal variations in prevalences of E. multilocularis. In one trapping area, prevalences varied on an exceptional high level of 40.6-78.5% during the whole study period. Low temperatures significantly correlated with the infection rate whereas precipitation was of lower importance. Significant spatial variations in prevalences were also identified for Taenia taeniaeformis. Although the trapping period and the meteorological factors temperature and precipitation were included in the best models for explaining the infection risk, their effects were not significant for this parasite. Conclusions Our results demonstrate that, besides temporal and spatial factors, low temperatures contribute to the risk of infection with E. multilocularis. This suggests that the enhanced survival of E. multilocularis eggs under cold weather conditions determines the level of infection pressure on the intermediate hosts and

  15. A Lifetime Prevalence of Comorbidity Between Bipolar Affective Disorder and Anxiety Disorders: A Meta-analysis of 52 Interview-based Studies of Psychiatric Population

    PubMed Central

    Nabavi, Behrouz; Mitchell, Alex J.; Nutt, David

    2015-01-01

    Background Bipolar affective disorder has a high rate of comorbidity with a multitude of psychiatric disorders and medical conditions. Among all the potential comorbidities, co-existing anxiety disorders stand out due to their high prevalence. Aims To determine the lifetime prevalence of comorbid anxiety disorders in bipolar affective disorder under the care of psychiatric services through systematic review and meta-analysis. Method Random effects meta-analyses were used to calculate the lifetime prevalence of comorbid generalised anxiety disorder, panic disorder, social anxiety disorder, specific phobia, agoraphobia, obsessive compulsive disorder and posttraumatic stress disorder in bipolar affective disorder. Results 52 studies were included in the meta-analysis. The rate of lifetime comorbidity was as follows: panic disorder 16.8% (95% CI 13.7–20.1), generalised anxiety disorder 14.4% (95% CI 10.8–18.3), social anxiety disorder13.3% (95% CI 10.1–16.9), post-traumatic stress disorder 10.8% (95% CI 7.3–14.9), specific phobia 10.8% (95% CI 8.2–13.7), obsessive compulsive disorder 10.7% (95% CI 8.7–13.0) and agoraphobia 7.8% (95% CI 5.2–11.0). The lifetime prevalence of any anxiety disorders in bipolar disorder was 42.7%. Conclusions Our results suggest a high rate of lifetime concurrent anxiety disorders in bipolar disorder. The diagnostic issues at the interface are particularly difficult because of the substantial symptom overlap. The treatment of co-existing conditions has clinically remained challenging. PMID:26629535

  16. Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate HIV prevalence in men who have sex with men in Poland at the end of 2009.

    PubMed

    Rosinska, M; Gwiazda, P; De Angelis, D; Presanis, A M

    2016-04-01

    HIV spread in men who have sex with men (MSM) is an increasing problem in Poland. Despite the existence of a surveillance system, there is no direct evidence to allow estimation of HIV prevalence and the proportion undiagnosed in MSM. We extracted data on HIV and the MSM population in Poland, including case-based surveillance data, diagnostic testing prevalence data and behavioural data relating to self-reported prior diagnosis, stratified by age (⩽35, >35 years) and region (Mazowieckie including the capital city of Warsaw; other regions). They were integrated into one model based on a Bayesian evidence synthesis approach. The posterior distributions for HIV prevalence and the undiagnosed fraction were estimated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. To improve the model fit we repeated the analysis, introducing bias parameters to account for potential lack of representativeness in data. By placing additional constraints on bias parameters we obtained precisely identified estimates. This family of models indicates a high undiagnosed fraction [68·3%, 95% credibility interval (CrI) 53·9-76·1] and overall low prevalence (2·3%, 95% CrI 1·4-4·1) of HIV in MSM. Additional data are necessary in order to produce more robust epidemiological estimates. More effort is urgently needed to ensure timely diagnosis of HIV in Poland. PMID:26542091

  17. Hate Crimes and Stigma-Related Experiences among Sexual Minority Adults in the United States: Prevalence Estimates from a National Probability Sample

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Herek, Gregory M.

    2009-01-01

    Using survey responses collected via the Internet from a U.S. national probability sample of gay, lesbian, and bisexual adults (N = 662), this article reports prevalence estimates of criminal victimization and related experiences based on the target's sexual orientation. Approximately 20% of respondents reported having experienced a person or…

  18. Satellite based classification (haze, fog) and affected area estimation over Indo - Pak Sub-Continent

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghauri, Badar; Zafar, Sumaira

    2016-07-01

    Northern Pakistan and bordering Indian Punjab experience intense smog and fog during fall and winters. Environmentalists have been raising their voices over the situation and demanded control over regional emissions to save the livelihood of millions of dwellers whose trade, commerce and agriculture is at stake because of long smog/ fog spells.. This paper estimates the area affected by haze, smog and fog during 2006- 2010. MODIS (geo-referenced MODIS subsets India1, 2 &3) of the area in Pakistan and India from 2006 to 2010 for the period October to February) were analyzed using state of the art software ENVI 4.2 and ArcGIS 10.2. This process resulted in area belonging to each class that is; haze, smog and fog. On the basis of density, haze and fog cover was determined. Variations in fog cover, its density and identification of location of fog initiation process were also determined using near real time (30 minutes) METEOSAT-7 IODC data where actually fog formation started and then extended to the area of favorable conditions. Haze has been noticed to intensify due to massive burning of agricultural waste (rice husk) in India and Pakistan towards the end of October each year. MODIS thermal anomalies/fire data (MYD 14) were also used to verify this activity on the ground, which results in hazy conditions at regional level during fall months. Haze-affected area during 2006 to 2010 in Pakistan ranged from 155,000 Km2 to 354,000 Km2 and in India it ranged from 333,000 Km2 to 846,000 Km2. Similarly winter fog cover during this period in Pakistan varied from 136,000 Km2 to 381,000 Km2 and in India it was estimated at 327,000 Km2 to 566,000 Km2. This phenomenon was more prominent in India than in Pakistan where and fog cover was at least twice than that was observed in Pakistan. It has been noted that area covered by fog, smog and haze doubled during the study period in the region. Atmospheric dimming during autumn/ fall also reduces the mixing height leading to greater

  19. Selection of meteorological parameters affecting rainfall estimation using neuro-fuzzy computing methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashim, Roslan; Roy, Chandrabhushan; Motamedi, Shervin; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Petković, Dalibor; Gocic, Milan; Lee, Siew Cheng

    2016-05-01

    Rainfall is a complex atmospheric process that varies over time and space. Researchers have used various empirical and numerical methods to enhance estimation of rainfall intensity. We developed a novel prediction model in this study, with the emphasis on accuracy to identify the most significant meteorological parameters having effect on rainfall. For this, we used five input parameters: wet day frequency (dwet), vapor pressure (e̅a), and maximum and minimum air temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) as well as cloud cover (cc). The data were obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department for the Patna city, Bihar, India. Further, a type of soft-computing method, known as the adaptive-neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), was applied to the available data. In this respect, the observation data from 1901 to 2000 were employed for testing, validating, and estimating monthly rainfall via the simulated model. In addition, the ANFIS process for variable selection was implemented to detect the predominant variables affecting the rainfall prediction. Finally, the performance of the model was compared to other soft-computing approaches, including the artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), extreme learning machine (ELM), and genetic programming (GP). The results revealed that ANN, ELM, ANFIS, SVM, and GP had R2 of 0.9531, 0.9572, 0.9764, 0.9525, and 0.9526, respectively. Therefore, we conclude that the ANFIS is the best method among all to predict monthly rainfall. Moreover, dwet was found to be the most influential parameter for rainfall prediction, and the best predictor of accuracy. This study also identified sets of two and three meteorological parameters that show the best predictions.

  20. A Budyko framework for estimating how lateral redistribution affects large-scale evapotranspiration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rouholahnejad, Elham; Kirchner, James W.

    2016-04-01

    , lateral redistribution can alter regional ET fluxes. Using this approach, one can obtain a first-order estimate for how much lateral redistribution may affect evapotranspiration rates at regional, continental, and global scales.

  1. Landscape and Meteorological Factors Affecting Prevalence of Three Food-Borne Pathogens in Fruit and Vegetable Farms

    PubMed Central

    Strawn, Laura K.; Fortes, Esther D.; Bihn, Elizabeth A.; Nightingale, Kendra K.; Gröhn, Yrjö T.; Worobo, Randy W.; Wiedmann, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Produce-related outbreaks have been traced back to the preharvest environment. A longitudinal study was conducted on five farms in New York State to characterize the prevalence, persistence, and diversity of food-borne pathogens in fresh produce fields and to determine landscape and meteorological factors that predict their presence. Produce fields were sampled four times per year for 2 years. A total of 588 samples were analyzed for Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella, and Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC). The prevalence measures of L. monocytogenes, Salmonella, and STEC were 15.0, 4.6, and 2.7%, respectively. L. monocytogenes and Salmonella were detected more frequently in water samples, while STEC was detected with equal frequency across all sample types (soil, water, feces, and drag swabs). L. monocytogenes sigB gene allelic types 57, 58, and 61 and Salmonella enterica serovar Cerro were repeatedly isolated from water samples. Soil available water storage (AWS), temperature, and proximity to three land cover classes (water, roads and urban development, and pasture/hay grass) influenced the likelihood of detecting L. monocytogenes. Drainage class, AWS, and precipitation were identified as important factors in Salmonella detection. This information was used in a geographic information system framework to hypothesize locations of environmental reservoirs where the prevalence of food-borne pathogens may be elevated. The map indicated that not all croplands are equally likely to contain environmental reservoirs of L. monocytogenes. These findings advance recommendations to minimize the risk of preharvest contamination by enhancing models of the environmental constraints on the survival and persistence of food-borne pathogens in fields. PMID:23144137

  2. Taenia solium porcine cysticercosis in Madagascar: Comparison of immuno-diagnostic techniques and estimation of the prevalence in pork carcasses traded in Antananarivo city.

    PubMed

    Porphyre, V; Betson, M; Rabezanahary, H; Mboussou, Y; Zafindraibe, N J; Rasamoelina-Andriamanivo, H; Costard, S; Pfeiffer, D U; Michault, A

    2016-03-30

    Taenia solium cysticercosis was reported in official veterinary and medical statistics to be highly prevalent in pigs and humans in Madagascar, but few estimates are available for pigs. This study aimed to estimate the seroprevalence of porcine cysticercosis among pigs slaughtered in Antananarivo abattoirs. Firstly, the diagnostic performance of two antigen-ELISA techniques (B158B60 Ag-ELISA and HP10 Ag-ELISA) and an immunoblotting method were compared with meat inspection procedures on a sample of pigs suspected to be infected with (group 1; n=250) or free of (group 2; n=250) T. solium based on direct veterinary inspection in Madagascar. Sensitivity and specificity of the antigen ELISAs were then estimated using a Bayesian approach for detection of porcine cysticercosis in the absence of a gold standard. Then, a third set of pig sera (group 3, n=250) was randomly collected in Antananarivo slaughterhouses and tested to estimate the overall prevalence of T. solium contamination in pork meat traded in Antananarivo. The antigen ELISAs showed a high sensitivity (>84%), but the B158B60 Ag-ELISA appeared to be more specific than the HP10 Ag-ELISA (model 1: 95% vs 74%; model 2: 87% vs 71%). The overall prevalence of porcine cysticercosis in Antananarivo slaughterhouses was estimated at 2.3% (95% credibility interval [95%CrI]: 0.09-9.1%) to 2.6% (95%CrI: 0.1-10.3%) depending on the model and priors used. Since the sample used in this study is not representative of the national pig population, village-based surveys and longitudinal monitoring at slaughter are needed to better estimate the overall prevalence, geographical patterns and main risk factors for T. solium contamination, in order to improve control policies. PMID:26342625

  3. An estimation of the prevalence of intellectual disabilities and its association with age in rural and urban populations in India

    PubMed Central

    Lakhan, Ram; Ekúndayò, Olúgbémiga T.; Shahbazi, Mohammad

    2015-01-01

    Background: Intellectual disability (ID) is a global public health concern. Prevalence of ID and its association with age and other demographic factors is required for planning purposes in India. Objective: This study analyzed the age-adjusted prevalence of ID in rural and urban populations and its correlation with age in children and adults. Materials and Methods: Disability data published in the report (2002) of National Sample Survey Organization were analyzed, using Z-test to measure differences in age-adjusted prevalence. Spearman rho was calculated to determine strength and direction of the association, and regression analysis was used to predict prevalence rate, based on age in rural and urban population settings. Results: Overall, India has a prevalence of 10.5/1000 in ID. Urban population has slightly higher rate (11/1000) than rural (10.08/1000; P = 0.044). Age was found to be highly correlated with prevalence of ID in rural children (ϱ =0.981, P = 0.019) as well as in children (ϱ = −0.954, P = 0.000) and adults (ϱ = −0.957, P = 0.000) in urban population. The possibility of confounding or the existence of covariates for children in urban settings was noted. Conclusion: Results of this study match findings in other epidemiological studies. However, multistage, large-scale studies are recommended for investigating prevalence rates with different severity levels of ID. PMID:26752897

  4. Population-Based Prevalence of Intellectual Disability and Autism Spectrum Disorders in Western Australia: A Comparison With Previous Estimates.

    PubMed

    Bourke, Jenny; de Klerk, Nick; Smith, Timothy; Leonard, Helen

    2016-05-01

    To investigate the prevalence of intellectual disability (ID) and/or autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) in Western Australia (WA).A cohort of children born from 1983 to 2010 in WA with an ID and/or ASD were identified using the population-based IDEA (Intellectual Disability Exploring Answers) database, which ascertains cases through the Disability Services Commission (DSC) as well as education sources. Information on race, gender, mother's residence at birth and deaths was obtained through linkage to the Midwives Notification System and the Mortality Register. Diagnostic information on the cause of ID was obtained through review of medical records where available and children were classified as biomedical cause, ASD, or unknown cause.An overall prevalence of ID of 17.0/1000 livebirths (95% CI: 16.7, 17.4) showed an increase from the 10-year previous prevalence of 14.3/1000. The prevalence for mild or moderate ID was 15.0 (95% CI: 14.6, 15.3), severe ID was 1.2 (95% CI: 1.1, 1.3), and unknown level of ID was 0.9 (95% CI: 0.8, 1.0)/1000 livebirths. The prevalence for Aboriginal children was 39.0/1000 compared with 15.7/1000 for non-Aboriginal children, giving a prevalence ratio of 2.5 (95% CI: 2.4, 2.6). Prevalence of all ASD was 5.1/1000 of which 3.8/1000 had ASD and ID.The prevalence of ID has risen in WA over the last 10 years with most of this increase due to mild or moderate ID. Whilst the prevalence of ASD has also increased over this time this does not fully explain the observed increase. Aboriginal children are at a 2.5-fold risk of ID but are less likely to be accessing disability services. PMID:27227936

  5. Estimating the Size of the HCV Infection Prevalence: A Modeling Approach Using the Incidence of Cases Reported to an Official Notification System.

    PubMed

    Amaku, Marcos; Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento; Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra; Lopez, Luis Fernandez; Mesquita, Fabio; Naveira, Marcelo Contardo Moscoso; Pereira, Gerson Fernando Mendes; Santos, Melina Érica; Massad, Eduardo

    2016-05-01

    In this paper we propose two methods to give a first rough estimate of the actual number of hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected individuals (prevalence) taking into account the notification rate of newly diagnosed infections (incidence of notification) and the size of the liver transplantation waiting list (LTWL) of patients with liver failure due to chronic HCV infection. Both approaches, when applied to the Brazilian HCV situation converge to the same results, that is, the methods proposed reproduce both the prevalence of reported cases and the LTWL with reasonable accuracy. We use two methods to calculate the prevalence of HCV that, as a first, and very crude approximation, assumes that the actual prevalence of HCV in Brazil is proportional to the reported incidence to the official notification system with a constant denoted [Formula: see text]. In the paper we discuss the limitations and advantages of this assumption. With the two methods we calculated [Formula: see text], which reproduces both the reported incidence and the size of the LTWL. With the value of [Formula: see text] we calculated the prevalence I(a) (the integral of which resulted in 1.6 million people living with the infection in Brazil, most of whom unidentified). Other variables related to HCV infection (e.g., the distribution of the proportion of people aged a who got infected n years ago) can be easily calculated from this model. These new variables can then be measured and the model can be recursively updated, improving its accuracy. PMID:27160282

  6. Prevalence of DSM IV anxiety and affective disorders in a pediatric population of asthmatic children and adolescents.

    PubMed

    Vila, G; Nollet-Clemençon, C; de Blic, J; Mouren-Simeoni, M C; Scheinmann, P

    2000-06-01

    A series of 82 children and adolescents with moderate and severe persistent asthma was studied. Their psychopathological problems were compared to those of 82 healthy subjects, matched for age, sex and socio-economic status. The patients completed the Child Depression Inventory, an inventory of fears and anxiety (ECAP) and the Coopersmith Self Esteem Inventory. Parents of asthmatic children filled in the Child Behavior Check List to assess their social competence. The patients were examined with the revised Kiddie Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia. There were more anxiety symptoms in the asthmatic group than in the control group. Asthmatics were not significantly more depressed than controls and their self-esteem was as good. We found 29 anxiety disorders, four affective disorders and four disruptive behavior disorders. Generalized anxiety disorder was the main diagnosis (n=24). The asthmatic subgroup presenting anxiety and affective disorders had poorer self esteem, fewer activities and worse social competence than other asthmatics and controls. Adolescents did not seem to have more emotional disturbances than younger patients. Girls did not have more DSM IV anxiety or affective disorders than boys. PMID:10802131

  7. A survey of children affected by ectomermal dysplasia syndromes shows an increased prevalence of atopic disorders and immune deficiency

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Ectodermal dysplasia (ED) syndromes are rare genetic disorders that affect the development of tissues derived from the embryonic ectoderm. Studies and anecdotal experience have indicated that atopic disorders (AD) and immune deficiencies (ID) may be associated with ED in children. Some ED genotypes ...

  8. Variations in Substance Use Prevalence Estimates and Need for Interventions among Adult Emergency Department Patients Based on Different Screening Strategies Using the ASSIST

    PubMed Central

    Merchant, Roland C.; Liu, Tao; Baird, Janette R.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Among adult emergency department (ED) patients, we sought to examine how estimates of substance use prevalence and the need for interventions can differ, based on the type of screening and assessment strategies employed. Methods We estimated the prevalence of substance use and the need for interventions using the Alcohol, Smoking and Substance Involvement Screening Test (ASSIST) in a secondary analysis of data from two cross-sectional studies using random samples of English- or Spanish-speaking 18–64-year-old ED patients. In addition, the test performance characteristics of three simplified screening strategies consisting of selected questions from the ASSIST (lifetime use, past three-month use, and past three-month frequency of use) to identify patients in need of a possible intervention were compared against using the full ASSIST. Results Of 6,432 adult ED patients, the median age was 37 years-old, 56.6% were female, and 61.6% were white. Estimated substance use prevalence among this population differed by how it was measured (lifetime use, past three-month use, past three-month frequency of use, or need for interventions). As compared to using the full ASSIST, the predictive value and accuracy to identify patients in need of any intervention was best for a simplified strategy asking about past three-month substance use. A strategy asking about daily/near-daily use was better in identifying patients needing intensive interventions. However, some patients needing interventions were missed when using these simplified strategies. Conclusion Substance use prevalence estimates and identification of ED patients needing interventions differ by screening strategies used. EDs should carefully select strategies to identify patients in need of substance use interventions. PMID:27330663

  9. Prenatal detection of birth defects in a Malaysian population: estimation of the influence of termination of pregnancy on birth prevalence in a developing country.

    PubMed

    Ho, Jacqueline J; Thong, Meow Keong; Nurani, Noor Khatijah

    2006-02-01

    We studied 253 women with a pregnancy complicated by a birth defect and 506 controls to determine the frequency and type of prenatal tests and the types of defects detected antenatally. Most women had at least one ultrasound examination, but the frequency of other screening tests was low. Only 38 (15%) of defects were detected antenatally (37 by ultrasound). Birth prevalence is unlikely to be affected by pregnancy termination. PMID:16441696

  10. Estimating hidden populations: a new method of calculating the prevalence of drug-injecting and non-injecting female street prostitution.

    PubMed

    Bloor, M; Leyland, A; Barnard, M; McKeganey, N

    1991-11-01

    This paper outlines a new method we have developed for estimating the prevalence of streetworking prostitution and the proportions of female street-working prostitutes who are injecting drug users. This method is based on the capture/recapture approach and involves distinguishing new fieldwork contacts from repeat field work contacts. The size of the overall population can be modelled from records of the increasing ratio of repeat to new fieldwork contacts. The method may have a relevance beyond a concern with prostitution and drug injecting, and may be of value in estimating other hidden populations. PMID:1777742

  11. National sample survey organization survey report: An estimation of prevalence of mental illness and its association with age in India

    PubMed Central

    Lakhan, Ram; Ekúndayò, Olúgbémiga T.

    2015-01-01

    Background: The Indian population suffers with significant burden of mental illness. The prevalence rate and its association with age and other demographic indicators are needed for planning purpose. Objective: This study attempted to calculate age-wise prevalence of mental illness for rural and urban settings, and its association with age. Materials and Methods: Data published in National Sample Survey Organization (2002) report on disability is used for the analysis. Spearman correlation for strength of association, z-test for difference in prevalence, and regression statistics for predicting the prevalence rate of mental illness are used. Result: Overall population have 14.9/1000 prevalence of mental illness. It is higher in rural setting 17.1/1000 than urban 12.7/1000 (P < 0.001). There is a strong correlation found with age in rural (ϱ = 0.910, P = 0.001) and urban (ϱ = 0.940, P = 0.001). Conclusion: Results of this study confirm other epidemiological research in India. Large-population epidemiological studies are recommended. PMID:25552851

  12. Anti-endomysial antibody of IgG1 isotype detection strongly increases the prevalence of coeliac disease in patients affected by type I diabetes mellitus

    PubMed Central

    Picarelli, A; Sabbatella, L; Di Tola, M; Vetrano, S; Casale, C; Anania, MC; Porowska, B; Vergari, M; Schiaffini, R; Gargiulo, P

    2005-01-01

    A strong association between type 1 insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM1) and coeliac disease (CD) is well documented, but it is known that prevalence values are underestimated. Serum anti-endomysial antibodies (EMA), considered diagnostic for CD because of their high sensitivity and specificity, belong to the IgA class, but the existence of EMA of IgG1 isotype in the presence or absence of IgA deficiency was reported. In order to re-evaluate the occurrence of CD in IDDM1 patients we performed a screening in IDDM1 patients using EMA of both isotypes. Ninety-four adults affected by IDDM1 (unaffected by CD before enrolling) were enrolled and 83 blood donors as controls. All subjects were on a gluten-containing diet. Histology and biopsy culture were performed. EMA IgA and IgG1 in sera and culture supernatants were detected. Serum EMA were positive in 13 of 94 IDDM1 patients (13·8%). Six of 13 presented IgA-EMA, seven of 13 presented IgG1-EMA. No EMA were found in the control population. Total intestinal atrophy was found in all six patients with serum IgA-EMA and in five of seven with serum IgG1-EMA. Diagnosis of CD was confirmed by histology and organ culture in all 13 patients with serum EMA. The prevalence of CD in the patients affected by IDDM1 was 6·4% for IgA-EMA-positive and 7·4% for IgG1-EMA-positive patients. We confirmed the prevalence of CD in the IDDM1 population obtained with IgA-EMA screening only (6·4%). This prevalence value increases dramatically to 13·8% when IgG1-EMA are also used in the screening. We conclude that IgG1-EMA should also be sought whenever an IDDM1 patient undergoes screening for CD. PMID:16178863

  13. Estimation of Listeria monocytogenes and Escherichia coli O157:H7 prevalence and levels in naturally contaminated rocket and cucumber samples by deterministic and stochastic approaches.

    PubMed

    Hadjilouka, Agni; Mantzourani, Kyriaki-Sofia; Katsarou, Anastasia; Cavaiuolo, Marina; Ferrante, Antonio; Paramithiotis, Spiros; Mataragas, Marios; Drosinos, Eleftherios H

    2015-02-01

    The aims of the present study were to determine the prevalence and levels of Listeria monocytogenes and Escherichia coli O157:H7 in rocket and cucumber samples by deterministic (estimation of a single value) and stochastic (estimation of a range of values) approaches. In parallel, the chromogenic media commonly used for the recovery of these microorganisms were evaluated and compared, and the efficiency of an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA)-based protocol was validated. L. monocytogenes and E. coli O157:H7 were detected and enumerated using agar Listeria according to Ottaviani and Agosti plus RAPID' L. mono medium and Fluorocult plus sorbitol MacConkey medium with cefixime and tellurite in parallel, respectively. Identity was confirmed with biochemical and molecular tests and the ELISA. Performance indices of the media and the prevalence of both pathogens were estimated using Bayesian inference. In rocket, prevalence of both L. monocytogenes and E. coli O157:H7 was estimated at 7% (7 of 100 samples). In cucumber, prevalence was 6% (6 of 100 samples) and 3% (3 of 100 samples) for L. monocytogenes and E. coli O157:H7, respectively. The levels derived from the presence-absence data using Bayesian modeling were estimated at 0.12 CFU/25 g (0.06 to 0.20) and 0.09 CFU/25 g (0.04 to 0.170) for L. monocytogenes in rocket and cucumber samples, respectively. The corresponding values for E. coli O157:H7 were 0.59 CFU/25 g (0.43 to 0.78) and 1.78 CFU/25 g (1.38 to 2.24), respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the culture media differed for rocket and cucumber samples. The ELISA technique had a high level of cross-reactivity. Parallel testing with at least two culture media was required to achieve a reliable result for L. monocytogenes or E. coli O157:H7 prevalence in rocket and cucumber samples. PMID:25710146

  14. PRECISION IN ESTIMATES OF DISABILITY PREVALENCE FOR THE POPULATION AGED 65 AND OVER IN THE UNITED STATES BY RACE AND ETHNICITY

    PubMed Central

    SIORDIA, C.

    2015-01-01

    Background Populations are aging worldwide. In the United States (US), the older adult (aged ≥65) population will increase rapidly in the decades to come. Identifying public health needs in older adults requires that sample-derived estimates of disability prevalence be produced using transparent methodologies. Objectives Produce estimates of disabilities for the US older adult population by race and ethnicity and present measures on the ‘level of precision’ in the estimates. Design Cross-sectional study used American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) 3-year file collected during 2009-2011 survey period. Setting Community dwelling population aged ≥65 in US. Participants The 1,494,893 actual survey participants (unweighted count) are said to represent 40,496,512 individuals after population weights are applied (weighted count). From the weighted counts, the average age is 75, about 56% are females, and most (80%) are Non-Latino-Whites (NLW). Results Qualitative comparisons provide some evidence that except for hearing, disability prevalence is highest in Non-Latino-Blacks along the following disability items: independent living (25%); ambulatory (34%); self-care (15%); cognitive (11%); and vision (11%). Person inflation ratios, width of 95% confidence interval, and rates of allocations are smaller in NLWs than all the other race-ethnic groups—suggesting disability estimates for NLWs merit the highest level of confidence. Conclusions Improving measures of health in the older adult population requires that efforts continue to highlight how estimates of disability prevalence have the potential to vary in precision and as a function of various known and unknown factors. PMID:26258112

  15. Eye contact affects attention more than arousal as revealed by prospective time estimation.

    PubMed

    Jarick, Michelle; Laidlaw, Kaitlin E W; Nasiopoulos, Eleni; Kingstone, Alan

    2016-07-01

    Eye contact can both increase arousal and engage attention. Because these two changes impact time estimation differently, we were able to use a prospective time estimation task to assess the relative changes in arousal and attention during eye contact. Pairs of participants made a 1-minute prospective time estimate while sitting side-by-side and performing three different gaze trials: looking at the wall away from their partner (baseline/away trials), looking at their partner's profile (profile trials), or making eye contact with their partner (eye contact trials). We found that participants produced significantly longer estimates when they were engaged in eye contact, more so than when they looked at another person's profile or baseline. As research has shown that people produce shorter estimates during arousing events and longer estimates when attention is captured, we attribute this difference to the attention-demanding process of interacting with another person, via mutual eye contact, over and above any changes in arousal. PMID:27002959

  16. Estimated Prevalence of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder in a Sample of Panamanian School-Aged Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sanchez, Emelyn Y.; Velarde, Silvia; Britton, Gabrielle B.

    2011-01-01

    The present study investigated the prevalence of ADHD in a school sample of children ages 6-11 years in the city of Panama. The assessment battery included the Conners' Parent and Teacher Rating Scales, the Structured Developmental History of the Behavioral Assessment System for Children (BASC-2), and the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children…

  17. Genetic relatedness and netB prevalence among environmental Clostridium perfringens strains associated with a broiler flock affected by mild necrotic enteritis.

    PubMed

    Engström, Björn E; Johansson, Anders; Aspan, Anna; Kaldhusdal, Magne

    2012-09-14

    In a previous study we investigated pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) genotype diversity and prevalence of the netB toxin gene in Clostridium perfringens (CP) isolates recovered from a broiler flock (flock 1) affected by necrotic enteritis (NE). In this follow-up work, we examined samples collected before placement of flock 1, to see if NE during rearing could be traced back to the cleaned and empty building or the day-old chicks. Litter from the next flock in the same building (flock 2) was also examined. We detected 25 different PFGE genotypes, five of which were found only in litter from flock 2. Six genotypes which had been found in flock 1 during rearing were detected in samples collected before placement. NetB positive isolates belonging to two of these genotypes had been recovered from NE lesions during rearing, suggesting that virulent strains were transmitted from the cleaned and disinfected broiler house. NetB frequency among isolates from the empty building was 45%, indicating that netB positive strains were prevalent in a building that previously had housed a healthy flock offered in-feed narasin (flock 0). NetB frequency among isolates from litter used by flock 2 was 22%, indicating that netB positive strains were present in the environment of a 14-days-old healthy flock offered in-feed narasin. Two prevalent genotypes were consistently either netB negative or netB positive. However, the presence of genotypes represented by both negative and positive isolates may suggest that the gene can spread horizontally among different CP strains. PMID:22516191

  18. Socio-economic and behavioural factors affecting the prevalence of Ascaris infection in a low-country tea plantation in Sri Lanka.

    PubMed

    Gunawardena, G S A; Karunaweera, N D; Ismail, M M

    2004-09-01

    The identification of the factors that affect the prevalences of geohelminthiases should help to maximize the effectiveness of programmes for the control of these diseases. In the present study, the relationships between the prevalence and intensity of human infection with Ascaris and the availability of sanitary facilities, socio-economic status and personal health habits have been explored in Sri Lanka. The 176 subjects, who lived on a low-country tea plantation, were aged 2-50 years (median = 13 years) and were investigated between the July and December of 2000. When the prevalence and intensity of Ascaris infection were determined, using Kato-Katz smears, 50.0% of the subjects were found to be secreting the eggs of the parasite. Almost all (96.6%) of the subjects lived in terraces of one-room houses built by the plantation owners, and only 30.7% had access to a latrine. Most (90.3%) obtained their drinking water from common taps, and 48.8% boiled their drinking water. The subjects who only drank water that had been boiled and those who washed their hands before meals were relatively unlikely to be infected (P < 0.05 for each). In congested living conditions with poor sanitary facilities, the level of faecal contamination of the environment is invariably high. Even under these conditions, however, good hygiene and the boiling of all drinking water can reduce the risks of Ascaris infection. In the study setting and in similar environments, regular anthelmintic therapy, improvements in housing conditions and sanitary facilities, and health education, to promote risk-reducing patterns of behaviour, would all be beneficial. PMID:15324467

  19. Trends in Incidence Rates during 1999-2008 and Prevalence in 2008 of Childhood Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus in GERMANY – Model-Based National Estimates

    PubMed Central

    Kiess, Wieland; Kapellen, Thomas Michael; Stange, Thoralf; Manuwald, Ulf; Salzsieder, Eckhard; Holl, Reinhard Walter; Schoffer, Olaf; Stahl-Pehe, Anna; Giani, Guido; Ehehalt, Stefan; Neu, Andreas; Rosenbauer, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Aims To estimate the national incidence rate and trend of type 1 diabetes (T1DM) in Germany from 1999 to 2008 and the national prevalence in 2008 in the age group 0–14 years. Methods Data were taken from a nationwide registry for incident cases of T1DM in the ages 0–4 years and 3 regional registries (North-Rhine-Westphalia, Baden-Wuerttemberg and Saxony) for incident cases of T1DM in the ages 0–14 years covering 41% of the child population in Germany. The degree of ascertainment was ≥ 97% in all registries. Incident and prevalent cases were grouped by region, sex, age (0–4, 5–9, 10–14 years), and, for incident data, additionally by two 5-year periods (1999–2003, 2004–2008). Poisson regression models were fitted to the data to derive national estimates of incidence rate trends and prevalence in the age groups 5–9, 10–14 and 0–14 years. We used direct age-standardization. Results The estimated national incidence rate in 0-14-year-olds increased significantly by 18.1% (95%CI: 11.6–25.0%, p<0.001) from 1999–2003 to 2004–2008, independent of sex, corresponding to an average annual increase of 3.4% (95%-CI: 2.2–4.6%). The overall incidence rate was estimated at 22.9 per 100,000 person-years and we identified a within-country west-east-gradient previously unknown. The national prevalence in the ages 0–14 years on 31/12/2008 was estimated to be 148.1 per 100,000 persons. Conclusions The national incidence rate of childhood T1DM in Germany is higher than in many other countries around the world. Importantly, the estimated trend of the incidence rate confirms the international data of a global increase of T1DM incidences. PMID:26181330

  20. Haunted by ghosts: prevalence, predictors and outcomes of spirit possession experiences among former child soldiers and war-affected civilians in Northern Uganda.

    PubMed

    Neuner, Frank; Pfeiffer, Anett; Schauer-Kaiser, Elisabeth; Odenwald, Michael; Elbert, Thomas; Ertl, Verena

    2012-08-01

    Phenomena of spirit possession have been documented in many cultures. Some authors have argued that spirit possession is a type of psychopathology, and should be included as a category in diagnostic manuals of mental disorders. However, there are hardly any quantitative studies that report the prevalence of spirit possession on a population level and that provide evidence for its validity as a psychopathological entity. In an epidemiological study that was carried out in 2007 and 2008 with N = 1113 youths and young adults aged between 12 and 25 years in war-affected regions of Northern Uganda we examined the prevalence, predictors and outcomes of cen, a local variant of spirit possession. Randomly selected participants were interviewed using a scale of cen, measures of psychopathology (PTSD and depression) as well as indicators of functional outcome on different levels, including suicide risk, daily activities, perceived discrimination, physical complaints and aggression. We found that cen was more common among former child soldiers then among subjects without a history of abduction. Cen was related to extreme levels of traumatic events and uniquely predicted functional outcome even when the effects of PTSD and depression were controlled for. Our findings show that a long-lasting war that is accompanied by the proliferation of spiritual and magical beliefs and propaganda can lead to high levels of harmful spirit possession. In addition, we provide evidence for the incremental validity of spirit possession as a trauma-related psychological disorder in this context. PMID:22580073

  1. FACTORS AFFECTING THE EFFICIENCY OF SOME ESTIMATORS OF FLUVIAL TOTAL PHOSPHORUS LOAD

    EPA Science Inventory

    The accuracy of estimating total phosphorus (TP) loads to receiving waters usually is constrained by availability of concentration data as discharge (flow) data normally are comparatively abundant. sing 4 years of daily observations from three tributaries to the Great Lakes (Gran...

  2. Estimating Annual Individual Doses for Evacuees Returning Home to Areas Affected by the Fukushima Nuclear Accident.

    PubMed

    Yajima, Kazuaki; Kurihara, Osamu; Ohmachi, Yasushi; Takada, Masashi; Omori, Yasutaka; Akahane, Keiichi; Kim, Eunjoo; Torikoshi, Masami; Yonehara, Hidenori; Yoshida, Satoshi; Sakai, Kazuo; Akashi, Makoto

    2015-08-01

    To contribute to the reconstruction and revitalization of Fukushima Prefecture following the 2011 nuclear power disaster, annual individual doses were estimated for evacuees who will return home to Tamura City, Kawauchi Village, and Iitate Village in Fukushima. Ambient external dose rates and individual doses obtained with personal dosimeters were measured at many residential and occupational sites throughout the study areas to obtain fundamental data needed for the estimation. The measurement results indicated that the ratio of individual dose based on a personal dosimeter to the ambient external dose measurement was 0.7 with 10% uncertainty. Multiplying the ambient external dose by 0.7 may be an appropriate measure of the effective dose to an individual in the investigated area. Annual individual doses were estimated for representative lifestyles and occupations based on the ambient external dose rates at the measurement sites, taking into account the relationship between the ambient external dose and individual dose. The results were as follows: 0.6-2.3 mSv y in Tamura, 1.1-5.5 mSv y in Kawauchi, and 3.8-17 mSv y in Iitate. For all areas investigated, the estimated dose to outdoor workers was higher than that to indoor workers. Identifying ways to reduce the amount of time that an outdoor worker spends outdoors would provide an effective measure to reduce dose. PMID:26107433

  3. Factors Affecting the Item Parameter Estimation and Classification Accuracy of the DINA Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    de la Torre, Jimmy; Hong, Yuan; Deng, Weiling

    2010-01-01

    To better understand the statistical properties of the deterministic inputs, noisy "and" gate cognitive diagnosis (DINA) model, the impact of several factors on the quality of the item parameter estimates and classification accuracy was investigated. Results of the simulation study indicate that the fully Bayes approach is most accurate when the…

  4. Test Administrator's Gender Affects Female and Male Students' Self-Estimated Verbal General Knowledge

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ortner, Tuulia M.; Vormittag, Isabella

    2011-01-01

    Effects of test administrator's gender on test takers' self-estimated verbal general knowledge and de facto verbal general knowledge were investigated. Based on three theories previously applied in research dealing with the effects of test administrator's ethnicity, it was expected male and female test takers to show higher scores under female…

  5. Does the Level of Occupational Aggregation Affect Estimates of the Gender Wage Gap?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kidd, Michael P.; Shannon, Michael

    1996-01-01

    Using data from the 1989 Canadian Labour-Market Activity Survey, when occupation is treated as a productivity-related characteristic, gender wage gap estimates are distorted. Using a larger number of occupations, the occupational aggregation by gender reflects barriers women face in attempting to enter male-dominated occupations. (SK)

  6. Experimental factors affecting PCR-based estimates of microbial species richness and evenness

    SciTech Connect

    Engelbrektson, Anna; Kunin, Victor; Wrighton, Kelly C.; Zvenigorodsky, Natasha; Chen, Feng; Ochman, Howard; Hugenholtz, Philip

    2009-12-01

    Pyrosequencing of 16S rRNA gene amplicons for microbial community profiling can, for equivalent costs, yield greater than two orders of magnitude more sensitivity than traditional PCR-cloning and Sanger sequencing. With this increased sensitivity and the ability to analyze multiple samples in parallel, it has become possible to evaluate several technical aspects of PCRbased community structure profiling methods. We tested the effect of amplicon length and primer pair on estimates of species richness number of species and evenness relative abundance of species by assessing the potentially tractable microbial community residing in the termite hindgut. Two regions of the 16S rRNA gene were sequenced from one of two common priming sites, spanning the V1-V2 or V8 regions, using amplicons ranging n length from 352 to 1443 bp. Our results demonstrate that both amplicon length and primer pair markedly influence estimates of richness and evenness. However, estimates of species evenness are consistent among different primer pairs targeting the same region. These results highlight the importance of experimental methodology when comparing diversity estimates across communities.

  7. Prevalence of food allergy: an overview.

    PubMed

    Madsen, Charlotte

    2005-11-01

    At present the only cure for food allergy is to avoid eating the food responsible for the allergy. Thus, food allergy or food hypersensitivity is a disease that is not only of concern to the individual who is affected but also to those involved directly and indirectly in supplying and preparing food for the food-allergic individual, and its impact on society should be evaluated on this basis. It is generally assumed that questionnaire-based studies vastly overestimate the prevalence of food hypersensitivity. The reported perceived prevalence of food hypersensitivity varies from 3.24% to 34.9%, which may be explained partly by the difference in reporting lifetime prevalence compared with point prevalence. However, of more importance is the apparent inverse correlation between response rate and prevalence (the higher the response rate, the lower the perceived prevalence). The three most-recent prevalence studies on food hypersensitivity (one on perceived food hypersensitivity and two on confirmed food hypersensitivity) all report estimates for prevalence of approximately 3%, but their criteria for including subjects as being positive are not identical, although they do overlap. Furthermore, because of differences in methodology there is no definitive information to indicate whether the prevalence of food allergy is increasing. However, the high prevalence of pollen-related food allergy in younger adults in the population suggests that the increase in pollen allergy is also being accompanied by an increase in pollen-related food allergy. PMID:16313682

  8. Demography of forest birds in Panama: How do transients affect estimates of survival rates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brawn, J.D.; Karr, J.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Robinson, W.D.

    1999-01-01

    Estimates of annual survival rates of neotropical birds have proven controversial. Traditionally, tropical birds were thought to have high survival rates for their size, but analyses of a multispecies assemblage from Panama by Karr et al. (1990) provided a counterexample to that view. One criticism of that study has been that the estimates were biased by transient birds captured only once as they passed through the area being sampled. New models that formally adjust for transient individuals have been developed since 1990. Preliminary analyses indicate that these models are indeed useful in modelling the data from Panama. Nonetheless, there is considerable interspecific variation and overall estimates of annual survival rates for understorey birds in Panama remain lower than those from other studies in the Neotropics and well below the rates long assumed for tropical birds (i.e. > 0.80). Therefore, tropical birds may not have systematically higher survival rates than temperate-zone species. Variation in survival rates among tropical species suggests that theory based on a simple tradeoff between clutch size and longevity is inadequate. The demographic traits of birds in the tropics (and elsewhere) vary within and among species according to some combination of historical and ongoing ecological factors. Understanding these processes is the challenge for future work.

  9. Factors affecting waterfowl breeding density and productivity estimates in the Northeast

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Longcore, J.R.; Ringelman, J.K.

    1980-01-01

    During 1977-79, information useful for making breeding pair and brood surveys was obtained while studying black duck (Anas rubripes) habitat selection and productivity in south-central Maine. Surveys should be initiated in relation to sunrise and sunset time. Morning versus evening counts, familiarity with the survey area, wetland dynamics of the study area, wetland surface water area, and allotment of relative survey effort are discussed as they affect the conduct and results of brood surveys.

  10. Estimating minimum adult HIV prevalence: a cross-sectional study to assess the characteristics of people living with HIV in Italy.

    PubMed

    Camoni, Laura; Raimondo, Mariangela; Dorrucci, Maria; Regine, Vincenza; Salfa, Maria Cristina; Suligoi, Barbara

    2015-03-01

    In 2012, we conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study to assess the number of people living with HIV linked to care and, among these, the number of people on antiretroviral therapy. The health authority in each of the 20 Italian Regions provided the list of Public Infectious Diseases Clinics providing antiretroviral therapy and monitoring people with HIV infection. We asked every Public Infectious Diseases Clinic to report the number of HIV-positive people diagnosed and linked to care and the number of those on antiretroviral therapy during 2012. In 2012, 94,146 people diagnosed with HIV and linked to care were reported. The majority were males (70.1%), Italians (84.4%), and aged between 25 and 49 years (63.4%); the probable route of transmission was heterosexual contact in 37.5% of cases, injecting drug use in 28.1%, and male-to-male contact in 27.9%. Among people in care, 20.1% had less than 350 CD4 cells/μl, 87.6% received antiretroviral therapy, and among these, 62.4% had a CD4 cell count higher than 350 cells/μl. The overall estimated prevalence of individuals diagnosed and linked to care in 2012 in Italy was 0.16 per 100 residents (all ages). Adding the estimated proportion of undiagnosed people, the estimated HIV prevalence would range between 0.19 and 0.26 per 100 residents. In Italy, the majority of people diagnosed and linked to care receive antiretroviral therapy. A higher prevalence of individuals diagnosed and linked to care was observed in Northern Italy and among males. More information for developing the HIV care continuum is necessary to improve the entire engagement in care, focusing on test-and-treat strategies to substantially reduce the proportion of people still undiagnosed or with a detectable viral load. PMID:25432098

  11. Estimating Minimum Adult HIV Prevalence: A Cross-Sectional Study to Assess the Characteristics of People Living with HIV in Italy

    PubMed Central

    Raimondo, Mariangela; Dorrucci, Maria; Regine, Vincenza; Salfa, Maria Cristina; Suligoi, Barbara

    2015-01-01

    Abstract In 2012, we conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study to assess the number of people living with HIV linked to care and, among these, the number of people on antiretroviral therapy. The health authority in each of the 20 Italian Regions provided the list of Public Infectious Diseases Clinics providing antiretroviral therapy and monitoring people with HIV infection. We asked every Public Infectious Diseases Clinic to report the number of HIV-positive people diagnosed and linked to care and the number of those on antiretroviral therapy during 2012. In 2012, 94,146 people diagnosed with HIV and linked to care were reported. The majority were males (70.1%), Italians (84.4%), and aged between 25 and 49 years (63.4%); the probable route of transmission was heterosexual contact in 37.5% of cases, injecting drug use in 28.1%, and male-to-male contact in 27.9%. Among people in care, 20.1% had less than 350 CD4 cells/μl, 87.6% received antiretroviral therapy, and among these, 62.4% had a CD4 cell count higher than 350 cells/μl. The overall estimated prevalence of individuals diagnosed and linked to care in 2012 in Italy was 0.16 per 100 residents (all ages). Adding the estimated proportion of undiagnosed people, the estimated HIV prevalence would range between 0.19 and 0.26 per 100 residents. In Italy, the majority of people diagnosed and linked to care receive antiretroviral therapy. A higher prevalence of individuals diagnosed and linked to care was observed in Northern Italy and among males. More information for developing the HIV care continuum is necessary to improve the entire engagement in care, focusing on test-and-treat strategies to substantially reduce the proportion of people still undiagnosed or with a detectable viral load. PMID:25432098

  12. Cross sectional study estimating prevalence of heart failure and left ventricular systolic dysfunction in community patients at risk

    PubMed Central

    Nielsen, O; Hilden, J; Larsen, C; Hansen, J

    2001-01-01

    OBJECTIVE—To examine a general practice population to measure the prevalence of signs and symptoms of heart failure (SSHF) and left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD).
DESIGN—Cross sectional screening study in three general practices followed by echocardiography.
SETTING AND PATIENTS—All patients ⩾ 50 years in two general practices and ⩾ 40 years in one general practice were screened by case record reviews and questionnaires (n = 2158), to identify subjects with some evidence of heart disease. Among these, subjects were sought who had SSHF (n = 115). Of 357 subjects with evidence of heart disease, 252 were eligible for examination, and 126 underwent further cardiological assessment, including 43 with SSHF.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES—Prevalence of SSHF as defined by a modified Boston index, LVSD defined as an indirectly measured left ventricular ejection fraction ⩽ 0.45, and numbers of subjects needing an echocardiogram to detect one case with LVSD.
RESULTS—SSHF afflicted 0.5% of quadragenarians and rose to 11.7% of octogenarians. Two thirds were handled in primary care only. At ⩾ 50 years of age 6.4% had SSHF, 2.9% had LVSD, and 1.9% (95% confidence interval 1.3% to 2.5%) had both. To detect one case with LVSD in primary care, 14 patients with evidence of heart disease without SSHF and 5.5 patients with SSHF had to be examined.
CONCLUSION—SSHF is extremely prevalent in the community, especially in primary care, but more than two thirds do not have LVSD. The number of subjects with some evidence of heart disease needing an echocardiogram to detect one case of LVSD is 14.


Keywords: heart failure; left ventricular systolic dysfunction PMID:11454835

  13. Does motion affect liver stiffness estimates in shear wave elastography? Phantom and clinical study.

    PubMed

    Pellot-Barakat, Claire; Chami, Linda; Correas, Jean Michel; Lefort, Muriel; Lucidarme, Olivier

    2016-09-01

    This study was undertaken to evaluate the impact of free-breathing (FB) vs. Apnea on Shear-wave elastography (SWE) measurements. Quantitative liver-stiffness measurements were obtained during FB and Apnea for 97 patients with various body-morphologies and liver textures. Quality indexes of FB and Apnea elasticity maps (percentage of non-filling (PNF), temporal (TV) and spatial (SV) variabilities) were computed. SWE measurements were also obtained from an homogeneous phantom at rest and during a mechanically-induced motion. Liver-stiffness values estimated from FB and Apnea acquisitions were correlated, particularly for homogeneous livers (r=0.76, P<0.001) and favorable body-morphologies (r=0.68, P<0.001). However FB values were consistently 20-25% lower than Apnea ones (P<0.001). FB also systematically resulted in degradation of TV (P<0.005) and PNF (P<0.001) compared to Apnea but had no impact on SV. With the phantom, no differences between SWE measurements at rest and during motion were observed. Apnea and FB measurements are highly correlated, although FB data quality is degraded compared to Apnea and estimated stiffness in FB is systematically lower than in Apnea. These discrepancies between rest and motion states were observed for patients but not for phantom data, suggesting that patient breath-holding impacts liver stiffness. PMID:27501901

  14. Estimates of Marine Debris Accumulation on Beaches Are Strongly Affected by the Temporal Scale of Sampling

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Stephen D. A.; Markic, Ana

    2013-01-01

    Marine debris is a global issue with impacts on marine organisms, ecological processes, aesthetics and economies. Consequently, there is increasing interest in quantifying the scale of the problem. Accumulation rates of debris on beaches have been advocated as a useful proxy for at-sea debris loads. However, here we show that past studies may have vastly underestimated the quantity of available debris because sampling was too infrequent. Our study of debris on a small beach in eastern Australia indicates that estimated daily accumulation rates decrease rapidly with increasing intervals between surveys, and the quantity of available debris is underestimated by 50% after only 3 days and by an order of magnitude after 1 month. As few past studies report sampling frequencies of less than a month, estimates of the scale of the marine debris problem need to be critically re-examined and scaled-up accordingly. These results reinforce similar, recent work advocating daily sampling as a standard approach for accurate quantification of available debris in coastal habitats. We outline an alternative approach whereby site-specific accumulation models are generated to correct bias when daily sampling is impractical. PMID:24367607

  15. Streamwater transit time estimates affected by isotope transformations within the forest canopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stockinger, Michael; Bogena, Heye; Lücke, Andreas; Diekkrüger, Bernd; McDonnell, Jeffrey; Vereecken, Harry

    2015-04-01

    Stable isotopes of water are often used as tracers of water movement at the catchment scale. Previous studies have mainly used tracer information of open precipitation (OP) to derive the Transit Time Distribution (TTD) models of streamflow emanating from forested catchments. However, rainfall passage through the forest canopy may alter the precipitation water tracer information due to evaporation, possibly leading to erroneous TTD estimates. Here we compare the effects of different precipitation tracer inputs for TTD modeling for a 0.39 km² forested headwater catchment in the Eifel region of Germany: throughfall (TF) measured for 19 months, OP and OP corrected by a constant factor to account for canopy influence (OPcorr). We used the 1.5 year long time series of weekly precipitation and stream isotope data to evaluate changes in stream isotope simulation and TTD results using the TRANSEP model. Stream isotope simulation results were improved with a maximum increase in Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.23 (0.44 to 0.67) when TF was used instead of OP. We found that TF influences on OP isotope composition had a significant effect on TTDs, with transit times decreasing by up to 27%. These results show the importance of accounting for canopy-induced isotope tracer changes in estimating streamwater transit time.

  16. Using Audio Computer-Assisted Self-Interviewing and Interactive Voice Response to Measure Elder Mistreatment in Older Adults: Feasibility and Effects on Prevalence Estimates

    PubMed Central

    Beach, Scott R.; Schulz, Richard; Degenholtz, Howard B.; Castle, Nicholas G.; Rosen, Jules; Fox, Andrea R.; Morycz, Richard K.

    2010-01-01

    Demographic trends indicate an aging population, highlighting the importance of collecting valid survey data from older adults. One potential issue when surveying older adults is use of technology to collect data on sensitive topics. Survey technologies like A-CASI and IVR have not been used with older adults to measure elder mistreatment. We surveyed 903 adults age 60 and older in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania (U.S.) with random assignment to one of four survey modes: (1) CAPI, (2) A-CASI, (3) CATI; and (4) IVR. We assessed financial, psychological, and physical mistreatment, and examined feasibility of A-CASI and IVR, and effects on prevalence estimates relative to CAPI and CATI. Approximately 83% of elders randomized to A-CASI/IVR used each technology, although 28% of respondents in the A-CASI condition refused to use headphones and read the questions instead. A-CASI produced higher six month prevalence rates of financial and psychological mistreatment than CAPI. IVR produced higher six month prevalence rates of psychological mistreatment than CATI. We conclude that, while IVR may be useful, A-CASI offers a more promising approach to the measurement of elder mistreatment. PMID:21113391

  17. A Functional Vesicular Monoamine Transporter 1 (VMAT1) Gene Variant Is Associated with Affect and the Prevalence of Anxiety, Affective, and Alcohol Use Disorders in a Longitudinal Population-Representative Birth Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Vaht, Mariliis; Kiive, Evelyn; Veidebaum, Toomas

    2016-01-01

    Background: Inter-individual differences in the monoaminergic systems have been shown to moderate the risk for a lifetime history of anxiety, affective, and alcohol use disorders. A common single nucleotide polymorphism in the vesicular monoamine transporter 1 gene (VMAT1 rs1390938 G/A; Thr136Ile) has been reported as functional in vitro and associated with bipolar disorder and anxiety. We aimed at assessing the association between the VMAT1 genotype, affect, and affect-related psychiatric disorders in a longitudinal population-representative study. Methods: We used the database of the Estonian Children Personality Behaviour and Health Study (beginning in 1998). Cohorts of initially 9- (recalled at ages 15 and 18 years, n=579) and 15- (recalled at ages 18 and 25 years; n=654) year-old children provided self-reports on impulsivity, anxiety, depressiveness, neuroticism, and alcohol use. In addition, psychiatric assessment based on DSM-IV was carried out in the older cohort at age 25 years. Results: Subjects homozygous for the less prevalent A (136Ile) allele reported lower maladaptive impulsivity, state and trait anxiety, depressiveness, and neuroticism and were less likely to have been diagnosed with an affective, anxiety, and/or alcohol use disorder by young adulthood. While in the younger cohort alcohol use started at younger age, this birth cohort effect was dependent on genotype: only G allele carriers and in particular the GG homozygotes started alcohol use earlier. Conclusions: VMAT1 rs1390938/Thr136Ile is associated with mood, personality, and alcohol use in the general population. Subjects homozygous for the “hyperfunction” allele (AA; Ile/Ile) appear to be more resilient to these disorders. PMID:26861143

  18. Estimating the net effect of HIV on child mortality in African populations affected by generalized HIV epidemics.

    PubMed

    Marston, Milly; Zaba, Basia; Salomon, Joshua A; Brahmbhatt, Heena; Bagenda, Danstan

    2005-02-01

    For a given prevalence, HIV has a relatively higher impact on child mortality when mortality from other causes is low. To project the effect of the epidemic on child mortality, it is necessary to estimate a realistic schedule of "net" age-specific mortality rates that would operate if HIV were the only cause of child death observable. We assume that this net pattern would be independent of mortality from other causes. We used African studies that measured the survival of HIV-infected children (direct data) or survival of children of HIV-infected mothers (indirect data). We developed a mathematic procedure to estimate the mortality of infected children from indirect data sources and obtained net HIV mortality patterns for each study population. The net age-specific HIV mortality pattern for infected children can be described by a double Weibull curve fitted to empiric data; this gives a functional representation of age-specific mortality rates that decline after infancy and rise in the preteens. The fitted curve that we would expect if HIV were the only effective cause of death shows 67% net survival at 1 year and 39% at 5 years. The curve also predicts 13% net survival at 10 years using constraints based on survival of infected adults. PMID:15671809

  19. Cost and sensitivity of on-farm versus slaughterhouse surveys for prevalence estimation and substantiating freedom from disease.

    PubMed

    Schärrer, Sara; Schwermer, Heinzpeter; Presi, Patrick; Lindberg, Ann; Zinsstag, Jakob; Reist, Martin

    2015-06-01

    Within the framework of Swiss surveillance for epizootic diseases, dairy cattle are sampled using bulk tank milk while non-dairy cattle are sampled on the farm. The latter method is costly, time-demanding and dangerous for the personnel. However, slaughterhouses could be an alternative sampling point for this population. To assess the cost-effectiveness and sensitivity of such an approach, surveillance using slaughterhouse sampling was modelled with data from the 2012 Swiss animal movement database (AMD). We simulated a cross-sectional study for bluetongue (BT), and surveillance programmes to substantiate freedom from infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) and enzootic bovine leucosis (EBL) (combined) to compare the outcome of random on-farm sampling versus slaughterhouse sampling. We found that, under Swiss conditions, slaughterhouse sampling results in low herd-level sensitivities because animals are sent by owners to slaughter individually and not in large groups, restricting the number of samples per herd. This makes slaughterhouse sampling inappropriate for prevalence surveys at the herd-level. However, for prevalence surveys at the animal-level and for substantiation of freedom from disease, slaughterhouse surveillance is equally or more cost-efficient than on-farm sampling. PMID:25724077

  20. Lagrangian methods for blood damage estimation in cardiovascular devices - How numerical implementation affects the results.

    PubMed

    Marom, Gil; Bluestein, Danny

    2016-02-01

    This paper evaluated the influence of various numerical implementation assumptions on predicting blood damage in cardiovascular devices using Lagrangian methods with Eulerian computational fluid dynamics. The implementation assumptions that were tested included various seeding patterns, stochastic walk model, and simplified trajectory calculations with pathlines. Post processing implementation options that were evaluated included single passage and repeated passages stress accumulation and time averaging. This study demonstrated that the implementation assumptions can significantly affect the resulting stress accumulation, i.e., the blood damage model predictions. Careful considerations should be taken in the use of Lagrangian models. Ultimately, the appropriate assumptions should be considered based the physics of the specific case and sensitivity analysis, similar to the ones presented here, should be employed. PMID:26679833

  1. Smoking and smokeless tobacco use in nine South and Southeast Asian countries: prevalence estimates and social determinants from Demographic and Health Surveys

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background In South and Southeast Asian countries, tobacco is consumed in diverse forms, and smoking among women is very low. We aimed to provide national estimates of prevalence and social determinants of smoking and smokeless tobacco use among men and women separately. Methods Data from Demographic and Health Surveys completed in nine countries (India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Maldives, Philippines, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Timor Leste) were analyzed. Current smoking or smokeless tobacco use was assessed as response “yes” to one or more of three questions, such as “Do you currently smoke cigarettes?” Weighted country-level prevalence rates for socio-economic subgroups were calculated for smoking and smokeless tobacco use. Binary logistic regression analyses were done on STATA/IC (version 10) by ‘svy’ command. Results Prevalence and type of tobacco use among men and women varied across the countries and among socio-economic sub groups. Smoking prevalence was much lower in women than men in all countries. Smoking among men was very high in Indonesia, Maldives, and Bangladesh. Smokeless tobacco (mainly chewable) was used in diverse forms, particularly in India, among both men and women. Chewing tobacco was common in Nepal, Bangladesh, Maldives, and Cambodia. Both smoking and smokeless tobacco use were associated with higher age, lower education, and poverty, but their association with place of residence and marital status was not uniform between men and women across the countries. Conclusion Policymakers should consider type of tobacco consumption and their differentials among various population subgroups to implement country-specific tobacco control policies and target the vulnerable groups. Smokeless tobacco use should also be prioritized in tobacco control efforts. PMID:25183954

  2. How Galactic Cosmic Ray models affect the estimation of radiation exposure in space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mrigakshi, Alankrita Isha; Matthiä, Daniel; Berger, Thomas; Reitz, Günther; Wimmer-Schweingruber, Robert F.

    2013-03-01

    The radiation environment in space is a major concern for human spaceflight because of the adverse effects of high levels of radiation on astronauts' health. Therefore, it is essential to perform radiation risk assessments already during the concept studies of a manned mission. Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) have been identified to be one of the primary sources of radiation exposure in space.This work presents an evaluation of the radiation exposure caused by GCR between 1970 and 2011 in near-Earth interplanetary space and at the orbit of the International Space Station (ISS) by making numerical simulations with the Monte-Carlo framework GEANT4. Commonly used GCR models - CREME96, CREME2009 and Badhwar-O'Neill2010 are used to describe the GCR spectra and the differences arising from the application of these different models in terms of absorbed dose and dose equivalent rates are investigated. Additionally, the depth distribution of the dose quantities and the relative contribution of particles with different energies to the total exposure during solar maximum and minimum conditions are studied.The differences in the spectra, described by the models, result in considerable differences in the estimation of the radiation exposure.

  3. Estimating the influence of life satisfaction and positive affect on later income using sibling fixed effects

    PubMed Central

    De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel; Oswald, Andrew J.

    2012-01-01

    The question of whether there is a connection between income and psychological well-being is a long-studied issue across the social, psychological, and behavioral sciences. Much research has found that richer people tend to be happier. However, relatively little attention has been paid to whether happier individuals perform better financially in the first place. This possibility of reverse causality is arguably understudied. Using data from a large US representative panel, we show that adolescents and young adults who report higher life satisfaction or positive affect grow up to earn significantly higher levels of income later in life. We focus on earnings approximately one decade after the person’s well-being is measured; we exploit the availability of sibling clusters to introduce family fixed effects; we account for the human capacity to imagine later socioeconomic outcomes and to anticipate the resulting feelings in current well-being. The study’s results are robust to the inclusion of controls such as education, intelligence quotient, physical health, height, self-esteem, and later happiness. We consider how psychological well-being may influence income. Sobel–Goodman mediation tests reveal direct and indirect effects that carry the influence from happiness to income. Significant mediating pathways include a higher probability of obtaining a college degree, getting hired and promoted, having higher degrees of optimism and extraversion, and less neuroticism. PMID:23169627

  4. Estimating the Size of HIV Key Affected Populations in Chongqing, China, Using the Network Scale-Up Method

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Wen; Wu, Guohui; Zhang, Wei; Hladik, Wolfgang; Abdul-Quader, Abu; Bulterys, Marc; Fuller, Serena; Wang, Lu

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To estimate the average social network size in the general population and the size of HIV key affected populations (KAPs) in Chongqing municipality using the network scale-up method (NSUM). Methods A general population survey was conducted in 2011 through a multistage random sampling method. Participants aged between 18 and 60 years were recruited. The average social network size (c) was estimated and adjusted by known population method. The size of HIV KAP in Chongqing municipality was estimated using the adjusted c value with adjustment for the transmission effect using the scaled respect factor. Results 3,026 inhabitants of Chongqing agreed to the survey, and 2,957 (97.7%) completed the questionnaire. The adjusted c value was 310. The estimated size of KAP was 28,418(95% Confidence Interval (CI):26,636∼30,201) for female sex workers (FSW), 163,199(95%CI:156,490∼169,908) for clients of FSW, 37,959(95%CI: 34,888∼41,030) for drug users (DU), 14,975(95%CI:13,047∼16,904) for injecting drug users (IDU) and 16,767(95%CI:14,602∼18,932) for men who have sex with men (MSM). The ratio of clients to FSW was 5.74∶1, and IDU accounted for 39.5% of the DU population. The estimates suggest that FSW account for 0.37% of the female population aged 15–49 years in Chongqing, and clients of FSW and MSM represent 2.09% and 0.21% of the male population aged 15–49 years in the city, respectively. Conclusion NSUM provides reasonable population size estimates for FSW, their clients, DU and IDU in Chongqing. However, it is likely to underestimate the population size of MSM even after adjusting for the transmission effect. PMID:23967246

  5. Estimating How Inflated or Obscured Effects of Climate Affect Forecasted Species Distribution

    PubMed Central

    Real, Raimundo; Romero, David; Olivero, Jesús; Estrada, Alba; Márquez, Ana L.

    2013-01-01

    Climate is one of the main drivers of species distribution. However, as different environmental factors tend to co-vary, the effect of climate cannot be taken at face value, as it may be either inflated or obscured by other correlated factors. We used the favourability models of four species (Alytes dickhilleni, Vipera latasti, Aquila fasciata and Capra pyrenaica) inhabiting Spanish mountains as case studies to evaluate the relative contribution of climate in their forecasted favourability by using variation partitioning and weighting the effect of climate in relation to non-climatic factors. By calculating the pure effect of the climatic factor, the pure effects of non-climatic factors, the shared climatic effect and the proportion of the pure effect of the climatic factor in relation to its apparent effect (ρ), we assessed the apparent effect and the pure independent effect of climate. We then projected both types of effects when modelling the future favourability for each species and combination of AOGCM-SRES (two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: CGCM2 and ECHAM4, and two Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B2). The results show that the apparent effect of climate can be either inflated (overrated) or obscured (underrated) by other correlated factors. These differences were species-specific; the sum of favourable areas forecasted according to the pure climatic effect differed from that forecasted according to the apparent climatic effect by about 61% on average for one of the species analyzed, and by about 20% on average for each of the other species. The pure effect of future climate on species distributions can only be estimated by combining climate with other factors. Transferring the pure climatic effect and the apparent climatic effect to the future delimits the maximum and minimum favourable areas forecasted for each species in each climate change scenario. PMID:23349726

  6. Identification of sources affecting fog formation using receptor modeling approaches and inventory estimates of sectoral emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehta, Bhavin; Venkataraman, Chandra; Bhushan, Mani; Tripathi, Sachchida Nand

    Positive matrix factorization (PMF) was used to identify factors affecting fog formation in Kanpur during the ISRO-GBP land campaign-II (LC-II) in December 2004. PMF predicted factors were validated by contrasting the emission strength of sources in the foggy and clear periods, using a combination of potential source contribution function (PSCF) analysis and quantitative emission inventory information. A time series aerosol chemical data set of 29 days and 12 species was decomposed to identify 4-factors: Secondary species, Biomass burning, Dust and Sea salt. PMF predicted particle mass with a satisfactory goodness-of-fit (slope of 0.83 ± 0.17 and R2 of 0.8), and strong species within 11-12% relative standard deviation. Mean contributions of anthropogenic factors were significantly higher during the foggy period for secondary species (2.9 ± 0.3) and biomass burning (1.2 ± 0.09) compared to the clear period. Local sources contributing to aerosols that mediated fog events at Kanpur, based on emissions in a 200 km × 200 km area around Kanpur city were thermal power plants and transportation (SO 2) and biofuel combustion (BC and OM). Regional scale sources influencing emissions during the foggy period, in probable source regions identified by PSCF included thermal power plants, transportation, brick kilns and biofuel combustion. While biofuel combustion and transportation are distributed area sources, individual point sources include coal-fired thermal power plants located in Aligarh, Delhi, Ghaziabad, Jhansi, Kanpur, Rae Bareli and Rupnagar and brick kilns located in Allahabad, Agra, Farrukhabad, Ghaziabad, Kanpur, Ludhiana, Lucknow and Rae Bareli. Additionally, in the foggy period, large areas of probable source regions lay outside India, implying the significance of aerosol incursion from outside India.

  7. Violence and Drug Use in Rural Teens: National Prevalence Estimates from the 2003 Youth Risk Behavior Survey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Andrew O.; Mink, Michael D.; Harun, Nusrat; Moore, Charity G.; Martin, Amy B.; Bennett, Kevin J.

    2008-01-01

    Objectives: The purpose of this study was to compare national estimates of drug use and exposure to violence between rural and urban teens. Methods: Twenty-eight dependent variables from the 2003 Youth Risk Behavior Survey were used to compare violent activities, victimization, suicidal behavior, tobacco use, alcohol use, and illegal drug use…

  8. Edge type affects leaf-level water relations and estimated transpiration of Eucalyptus arenacea.

    PubMed

    Wright, Thomas E; Tausz, Michael; Kasel, Sabine; Volkova, Liubov; Merchant, Andrew; Bennett, Lauren T

    2012-03-01

    plantation edges in summer months (most likely due to greater water availability at pasture edges), resulting in significantly greater estimates of annual transpiration at pasture than plantation edges (430 vs. 343lm(-2)year(-1), respectively). Our study highlights the need for landscape-level water flux models to account for edge effects on stand transpiration, particularly in highly fragmented landscapes. PMID:22367763

  9. High Prevalence of Post-Traumatic Stress Symptoms in Relation to Social Factors in Affected Population One Year after the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster

    PubMed Central

    Tsujiuchi, Takuya; Yamaguchi, Maya; Masuda, Kazutaka; Tsuchida, Marisa; Inomata, Tadashi; Kumano, Hiroaki; Kikuchi, Yasushi; Augusterfer, Eugene F.; Mollica, Richard F.

    2016-01-01

    Objective This study investigated post-traumatic stress symptoms in relation to the population affected by the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster, one year after the disaster. Additionally, we investigated social factors, such as forced displacement, which we hypothesize contributed to the high prevalence of post-traumatic stress. Finally, we report of written narratives that were collected from the impacted population. Design and Settings Using the Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R), questionnaires were sent to 2,011 households of those displaced from Fukushima prefecture living temporarily in Saitama prefecture. Of the 490 replies; 350 met the criteria for inclusion in the study. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to examine several characteristics and variables of social factors as predictors of probable post-traumatic stress disorder, PTSD. Results The mean score of IES-R was 36.15±21.55, with 59.4% having scores of 30 or higher, thus indicating a probable PTSD. No significant differences in percentages of high-risk subjects were found among sex, age, evacuation area, housing damages, tsunami affected, family split-up, and acquaintance support. By the result of multiple logistic regression analysis, the significant predictors of probable PTSD were chronic physical diseases (OR = 1.97), chronic mental diseases (OR = 6.25), worries about livelihood (OR = 2.27), lost jobs (OR = 1.71), lost social ties (OR = 2.27), and concerns about compensation (OR = 3.74). Conclusion Although there are limitations in assuming a diagnosis of PTSD based on self-report IES-R, our findings indicate that there was a high-risk of PTSD strongly related to the nuclear disaster and its consequent evacuation and displacement. Therefore, recovery efforts must focus not only on medical and psychological treatment alone, but also on social and economic issues related to the displacement, as well. PMID:27002324

  10. Wikipedia Usage Estimates Prevalence of Influenza-Like Illness in the United States in Near Real-Time

    PubMed Central

    McIver, David J.; Brownstein, John S.

    2014-01-01

    Circulating levels of both seasonal and pandemic influenza require constant surveillance to ensure the health and safety of the population. While up-to-date information is critical, traditional surveillance systems can have data availability lags of up to two weeks. We introduce a novel method of estimating, in near-real time, the level of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the United States (US) by monitoring the rate of particular Wikipedia article views on a daily basis. We calculated the number of times certain influenza- or health-related Wikipedia articles were accessed each day between December 2007 and August 2013 and compared these data to official ILI activity levels provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). We developed a Poisson model that accurately estimates the level of ILI activity in the American population, up to two weeks ahead of the CDC, with an absolute average difference between the two estimates of just 0.27% over 294 weeks of data. Wikipedia-derived ILI models performed well through both abnormally high media coverage events (such as during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic) as well as unusually severe influenza seasons (such as the 2012–2013 influenza season). Wikipedia usage accurately estimated the week of peak ILI activity 17% more often than Google Flu Trends data and was often more accurate in its measure of ILI intensity. With further study, this method could potentially be implemented for continuous monitoring of ILI activity in the US and to provide support for traditional influenza surveillance tools. PMID:24743682

  11. Estimates of Octanol-Water Partitioning for Thousands of Dissolved Organic Species in Oil Sands Process-Affected Water.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Kun; Pereira, Alberto S; Martin, Jonathan W

    2015-07-21

    In this study, the octanol-water distribution ratios (DOW, that is, apparent KOW at pH 8.4) of 2114 organic species in oil sands process-affected water were estimated by partitioning to polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) coated stir bars and analysis by ultrahigh resolution orbitrap mass spectrometry in electrospray positive ((+)) and negative ((-)) ionization modes. At equilibrium, the majority of species in OSPW showed negligible partitioning to PDMS (i.e., DOW <1), however estimated DOW's for some species ranged up to 100,000. Most organic acids detected in ESI- had negligible partitioning, although some naphthenic acids (O2(-) species) had estimated DOW ranging up to 100. Polar neutral and basic compounds detected in ESI+ generally partitioned to PDMS to a greater extent than organic acids. Among these species, DOW was greatest among 3 groups: up to 1000 for mono-oxygenated species (O(+) species), up to 127,000 for NO(+) species, and up to 203,000 for SO(+) species. A positive relationship was observed between DOW and carbon number, and a negative relationship was observed with the number of double bonds (or rings). The results highlight that nonacidic compounds in OSPW are generally more hydrophobic than naphthenic acids and that some may be highly bioaccumulative and contribute to toxicity. PMID:26098972

  12. Estimating prevalence and burden of major disorders of the brain in Nepal: cultural, geographic, logistic and philosophical issues of methodology

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Headache, anxiety and depression are major disorders of the brain in terms of their prevalence and the burdens and costs they impose on society. Nationwide population-based studies of these disorders are necessary to inform health policy but, in research-naïve and resource-poor countries such as Nepal, a host of methodological problems are encountered: cultural, geographic, logistic and philosophical. Methods Expert consensus was sought among researchers from different professional and cultural backgrounds in planning and conceptualizing an epidemiological study and adapting established methods to the special situation and circumstances of Nepal. Results The methodological problems were sorted into different themes: study design; climate; geography, access and transport; sociocultural issues; safety of interviewers. Each of these was dealt with separately, and their inter-relationships explored, in finding solutions that were sometimes pragmatic. A cross-sectional questionnaire-based study, with teams of interviewers visiting households across the three physiographic divisions (with extremes in altitude) in each of the five development regions of the country, would enable national sampling with sociocultural representativeness. However, the study instruments and interviews would be in Nepali only. Transport and access challenges were considerable, and their solutions combined travel by air, bus, river and foot, with allowances for rain-damaged roads, collapsed bridges and cancelled scheduled flights. The monsoon would render many routes impassable, and therefore set an absolute time limitation. Engaging participants willingly in the enquiry would be the key to success, and several tactics would be employed to enhance the success of this, most importantly enlisting the support of local community volunteers in each study site. Conclusion Anticipating problems in advance of investing substantial resources in a large nationwide epidemiological study in

  13. Hate crimes and stigma-related experiences among sexual minority adults in the United States: prevalence estimates from a national probability sample.

    PubMed

    Herek, Gregory M

    2009-01-01

    Using survey responses collected via the Internet from a U.S. national probability sample of gay, lesbian, and bisexual adults (N = 662), this article reports prevalence estimates of criminal victimization and related experiences based on the target's sexual orientation. Approximately 20% of respondents reported having experienced a person or property crime based on their sexual orientation; about half had experienced verbal harassment, and more than 1 in 10 reported having experienced employment or housing discrimination. Gay men were significantly more likely than lesbians or bisexuals to experience violence and property crimes. Employment and housing discrimination were significantly more likely among gay men and lesbians than among bisexual men and women. Implications for future research and policy are discussed. PMID:18391058

  14. Youden Index and Optimal Cut-Point Estimated from Observations Affected by a Lower Limit of Detection

    PubMed Central

    Ruopp, Marcus D.; Perkins, Neil J.; Whitcomb, Brian W.; Schisterman, Enrique F.

    2008-01-01

    Summary The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is used to evaluate a biomarker’s ability for classifying disease status. The Youden Index (J), the maximum potential effectiveness of a biomarker, is a common summary measure of the ROC curve. In biomarker development, levels may be unquantifiable below a limit of detection (LOD) and missing from the overall dataset. Disregarding these observations may negatively bias the ROC curve and thus J. Several correction methods have been suggested for mean estimation and testing; however, little has been written about the ROC curve or its summary measures. We adapt non-parametric (empirical) and semi-parametric (ROC-GLM [generalized linear model]) methods and propose parametric methods (maximum likelihood (ML)) to estimate J and the optimal cut-point (c*) for a biomarker affected by a LOD. We develop unbiased estimators of J and c* via ML for normally and gamma distributed biomarkers. Alpha level confidence intervals are proposed using delta and bootstrap methods for the ML, semi-parametric, and non-parametric approaches respectively. Simulation studies are conducted over a range of distributional scenarios and sample sizes evaluating estimators’ bias, root-mean square error, and coverage probability; the average bias was less than one percent for ML and GLM methods across scenarios and decreases with increased sample size. An example using polychlorinated biphenyl levels to classify women with and without endometriosis illustrates the potential benefits of these methods. We address the limitations and usefulness of each method in order to give researchers guidance in constructing appropriate estimates of biomarkers’ true discriminating capabilities. PMID:18435502

  15. Eighty-five per cent of what? Discrepancies in the weight cut-off for anorexia nervosa substantially affect the prevalence of underweight

    PubMed Central

    Thomas, J. J.; Roberto, C. A.; Brownell, K. D.

    2010-01-01

    Background DSM-IV cites <85% of expected body weight (EBW) as a guideline for the diagnosis of anorexia nervosa (AN) but does not require a specific method for calculating EBW. The purpose of the present study was to determine the degree to which weight cut-off calculations vary across studies, and to evaluate whether differential cut-offs lead to discrepancies in the prevalence of individuals who are eligible for the AN diagnosis. Method Two coders independently recorded the EBW calculation methods from 99 studies that either (a) compared individuals with AN to those with subclinical eating disorders or (b) conducted AN treatment trials. Each weight cut-off was applied to a nationally representative (n = 12001) and treatment-seeking (n = 189) sample to determine the impact of EBW calculation on the proportion who met the AN weight criterion. Results Coders identified 10 different EBW methods, each of which produced different weight cut-offs for the diagnosis of AN. Although only 0.23% of the national sample met the lowest cut-off, this number increased 43-fold to 10.10% under the highest cut-off. Similarly, only 48.1% of treatment seekers met the lowest cut-off, whereas 89.4 % met the highest. Conclusions There is considerable variance across studies in the determination of the AN weight cut-off. Discrepancies substantially affect the proportion of individuals who are eligible for diagnosis, treatment and insurance reimbursement. However, differences may not be fully appreciated because the ubiquitous citation of the 85% criterion creates a sense of false consensus. PMID:18775087

  16. Sensorless Control of Synchronous Reluctance Motors Using an On-Line Parameter Identification Method not Affected by Position Estimation Accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iwata, Akitoshi; Ichikawa, Shinji; Tomita, Mutuwo; Doki, Shinji; Okuma, Shigeru

    This paper presents a novel on-line parameter identification method for sensorless control of Synchronous Reluctance Motors (SynRMs). Although conventional sensorless control methods based on mathematical models usually need some complex measurements of motor parameters in advance, the proposed identification method does not require them and can be realized on-line. The proposed method identifies motor parameters under sensorless control, so rotor position and velocity can not be used to identify these parameters. However, the proposed method does not need rotor position and veocity, identified parameters are not affected by these estimation errors. The sensorless control using identified motor parameters is realized, and effective of the proposed method is verified by experimental results.

  17. Dynamic Testing of a Pre-stretched Flexible Tube for Identifying the Factors Affecting Modal Parameter Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Unnikrishnan, Madhusudanan; Rajan, Akash; Basanthvihar Raghunathan, Binulal; Kochupillai, Jayaraj

    2016-06-01

    Experimental modal analysis is the primary tool for obtaining the fundamental dynamic characteristics like natural frequency, mode shape and modal damping ratio that determine the behaviour of any structure under dynamic loading conditions. This paper discusses about a carefully designed experimental method for calculating the dynamic characteristics of a pre-stretched horizontal flexible tube made of polyurethane material. The factors that affect the modal parameter estimation like the application time of shaker excitation, pause time between successive excitation cycles, averaging and windowing of measured signal, as well as the precautions to be taken during the experiment are explained in detail. The modal parameter estimation is done using MEscopeVESTM software. A finite element based pre-stressed modal analysis of the flexible tube is also done using ANSYS ver.14.0 software. The experimental and analytical results agreed well. The proposed experimental methodology may be extended for carrying out the modal analysis of many flexible structures like inflatables, tires and membranes.

  18. Higher Estimated Net Endogenous Acid Production May Be Associated with Increased Prevalence of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Chinese Adults in Hong Kong

    PubMed Central

    Chan, Ruth; Wong, Vincent Wai-Sun; Chu, Winnie Chiu-Wing; Wong, Grace Lai-Hung; Li, Liz Sin; Leung, Jason; Chim, Angel Mei-Ling; Yeung, David Ka-Wai; Sea, Mandy Man-Mei; Woo, Jean; Chan, Francis Ka-Leung; Chan, Henry Lik-Yuen

    2015-01-01

    Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has been associated with reduced growth hormone levels and signaling. Such hormonal changes also occur in metabolic acidosis. Since mild metabolic acidosis can be diet induced, diet-induced acid load may constitute a nutritional factor with possible influence on NAFLD development. This study explored whether a higher diet-induced acid load is associated with an increased likelihood of NAFLD. Apparently healthy Chinese adults (330 male, 463 female) aged 19-72 years were recruited through population screening between 2008 and 2010 in a cross-sectional population-based study in Hong Kong. Estimated net endogenous acid production (NEAP) was calculated using Frassetto’s method and potential renal acid load (PRAL) was calculated using Remer’s method based on dietary data from a food frequency questionnaire. NAFLD was defined as intrahepatic triglyceride content at >5% by proton-magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Possible advanced fibrosis was defined as liver stiffness at >7.9 kPa by transient elastography. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to examine the association between each measure of dietary acid load and prevalent NAFLD or possible advanced fibrosis with adjustment for potential anthropometric and lifestyle factors. 220 subjects (27.7%) were diagnosed with NAFLD. Estimated NEAP was positively associated with the likelihood of having NAFLD after adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, current drinker status and the presence of metabolic syndrome [OR (95% CI) = 1.25 (1.02-1.52), p = 0.022]. The association was slightly attenuated but remained significant when the model was further adjusted for other dietary variables. No association between PRAL and NAFLD prevalence was observed. Both estimated NEAP and PRAL were not associated with the presence of possible advance fibrosis. Our findings suggest that there may be a modest association between diet-induced acid load and NAFLD. More studies are needed to

  19. Multi-scale occupancy approach to estimate Toxoplasma gondii prevalence and detection probability in tissues: an application and guide for field sampling.

    PubMed

    Elmore, Stacey A; Huyvaert, Kathryn P; Bailey, Larissa L; Iqbal, Asma; Su, Chunlei; Dixon, Brent R; Alisauskas, Ray T; Gajadhar, Alvin A; Jenkins, Emily J

    2016-08-01

    Increasingly, birds are recognised as important hosts for the ubiquitous parasite Toxoplasma gondii, although little experimental evidence exists to determine which tissues should be tested to maximise the detection probability of T. gondii. Also, Arctic-nesting geese are suspected to be important sources of T. gondii in terrestrial Arctic ecosystems, but the parasite has not previously been reported in the tissues of these geese. Using a domestic goose model, we applied a multi-scale occupancy framework to demonstrate that the probability of detection of T. gondii was highest in the brain (0.689, 95% confidence interval=0.486, 0.839) and the heart (0.809, 95% confidence interval=0.693, 0.888). Inoculated geese had an estimated T. gondii infection probability of 0.849, (95% confidence interval=0.643, 0.946), highlighting uncertainty in the system, even under experimental conditions. Guided by these results, we tested the brains and hearts of wild Ross's Geese (Chen rossii, n=50) and Lesser Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens, n=50) from Karrak Lake, Nunavut, Canada. We detected 51 suspected positive tissue samples from 33 wild geese using real-time PCR with melt-curve analysis. The wild goose prevalence estimates generated by our multi-scale occupancy analysis were higher than the naïve estimates of prevalence, indicating that multiple PCR repetitions on the same organs and testing more than one organ could improve T. gondii detection. Genetic characterisation revealed Type III T. gondii alleles in six wild geese and Sarcocystis spp. in 25 samples. Our study demonstrates that Arctic nesting geese are capable of harbouring T. gondii in their tissues and could transport the parasite from their southern overwintering grounds into the Arctic region. We demonstrate how a multi-scale occupancy framework can be used in a domestic animal model to guide resource-limited sample collection and tissue analysis in wildlife. Secondly, we confirm the value of traditional occupancy in

  20. [ASRS v.1.1., a tool for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder screening in adults treated for addictive behaviors: psychometric properties and estimated prevalence].

    PubMed

    Pedrero Pérez, Eduardo J; Puerta García, Carmen

    2007-01-01

    ASRS v.1.1. is a self-applied brief instrument for the screening of individuals presenting symptoms of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and proposed by the WHO. The purpose of the present work was to test the instrument and examine the results of its application to a sample of 280 individuals in treatment for substance-related disorders (cross-sectional descriptive study). We administered simultaneously in the initial phases of treatment the ASRS v.1.1. (short form) and the MCMI-II to the full sample and the Wender Utah Rating Scale (WURS), ADHD-Rating Scale-IV and ASRS v.1.1. (complete form) to various sub-samples. Diagnostic interviews were also carried out and the psychometric properties and factorial structure of ASRS v.1.1. were explored. Good convergent validity, sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic capability were obtained for the six-item version of ASRS v.1.1., even though 4 out of 6 items did not discriminate between Axis I and II disorders assessed through the MCMI-II and diagnostic interviews. According to DSM-IV-TR criteria the estimated prevalence of ADHD in the sample of addicts was 8.2%. ASRS v.1.1. is criticized as a specific instrument for ADHD detection, since most of its items appear to measure a non-specific dimension of compulsiveness/impulsiveness, common to Axis-I and Axis-II disorders. Other criticisms made in the discussion concern the lack of specificity of DSM criteria and the confusion they generate among the concepts of symptom, sign and trait (including the impact on study results), the general use of the A criterion but the omission of the B, C, D and E criteria of the DSM category, differences in samples (with regard to both severity and selection criteria), and the artifactual increases in prevalence found in many studies. PMID:18173102

  1. Optimal Cut-Off Points of Fasting Plasma Glucose for Two-Step Strategy in Estimating Prevalence and Screening Undiagnosed Diabetes and Pre-Diabetes in Harbin, China

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Bo; Lan, Li; Cui, Wenxiu; Xu, Guohua; Sui, Conglan; Wang, Yibaina; Zhao, Yashuang; Wang, Jian; Li, Hongyuan

    2015-01-01

    To identify optimal cut-off points of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) for two-step strategy in screening abnormal glucose metabolism and estimating prevalence in general Chinese population. A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted on 7913 people aged 20 to 74 years in Harbin. Diabetes and pre-diabetes were determined by fasting and 2 hour post-load glucose from the oral glucose tolerance test in all participants. Screening potential of FPG, cost per case identified by two-step strategy, and optimal FPG cut-off points were described. The prevalence of diabetes was 12.7%, of which 65.2% was undiagnosed. Twelve percent or 9.0% of participants were diagnosed with pre-diabetes using 2003 ADA criteria or 1999 WHO criteria, respectively. The optimal FPG cut-off points for two-step strategy were 5.6 mmol/l for previously undiagnosed diabetes (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of FPG 0.93; sensitivity 82.0%; cost per case identified by two-step strategy ¥261), 5.3 mmol/l for both diabetes and pre-diabetes or pre-diabetes alone using 2003 ADA criteria (0.89 or 0.85; 72.4% or 62.9%; ¥110 or ¥258), 5.0 mmol/l for pre-diabetes using 1999 WHO criteria (0.78; 66.8%; ¥399), and 4.9 mmol/l for IGT alone (0.74; 62.2%; ¥502). Using the two-step strategy, the underestimates of prevalence reduced to nearly 38% for pre-diabetes or 18.7% for undiagnosed diabetes, respectively. Approximately a quarter of the general population in Harbin was in hyperglycemic condition. Using optimal FPG cut-off points for two-step strategy in Chinese population may be more effective and less costly for reducing the missed diagnosis of hyperglycemic condition. PMID:25785585

  2. Optimal cut-off points of fasting plasma glucose for two-step strategy in estimating prevalence and screening undiagnosed diabetes and pre-diabetes in Harbin, China.

    PubMed

    Bao, Chundan; Zhang, Dianfeng; Sun, Bo; Lan, Li; Cui, Wenxiu; Xu, Guohua; Sui, Conglan; Wang, Yibaina; Zhao, Yashuang; Wang, Jian; Li, Hongyuan

    2015-01-01

    To identify optimal cut-off points of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) for two-step strategy in screening abnormal glucose metabolism and estimating prevalence in general Chinese population. A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted on 7913 people aged 20 to 74 years in Harbin. Diabetes and pre-diabetes were determined by fasting and 2 hour post-load glucose from the oral glucose tolerance test in all participants. Screening potential of FPG, cost per case identified by two-step strategy, and optimal FPG cut-off points were described. The prevalence of diabetes was 12.7%, of which 65.2% was undiagnosed. Twelve percent or 9.0% of participants were diagnosed with pre-diabetes using 2003 ADA criteria or 1999 WHO criteria, respectively. The optimal FPG cut-off points for two-step strategy were 5.6 mmol/l for previously undiagnosed diabetes (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of FPG 0.93; sensitivity 82.0%; cost per case identified by two-step strategy ¥261), 5.3 mmol/l for both diabetes and pre-diabetes or pre-diabetes alone using 2003 ADA criteria (0.89 or 0.85; 72.4% or 62.9%; ¥110 or ¥258), 5.0 mmol/l for pre-diabetes using 1999 WHO criteria (0.78; 66.8%; ¥399), and 4.9 mmol/l for IGT alone (0.74; 62.2%; ¥502). Using the two-step strategy, the underestimates of prevalence reduced to nearly 38% for pre-diabetes or 18.7% for undiagnosed diabetes, respectively. Approximately a quarter of the general population in Harbin was in hyperglycemic condition. Using optimal FPG cut-off points for two-step strategy in Chinese population may be more effective and less costly for reducing the missed diagnosis of hyperglycemic condition. PMID:25785585

  3. How do alternative root water uptake models affect the inverse estimation of soil hydraulic parameters and the prediction of evapotranspiration?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gayler, Sebastian; Salima-Sultana, Daisy; Selle, Benny; Ingwersen, Joachim; Wizemann, Hans-Dieter; Högy, Petra; Streck, Thilo

    2016-04-01

    Soil water extraction by roots affects the dynamics and distribution of soil moisture and controls transpiration, which influences soil-vegetation-atmosphere feedback processes. Consequently, root water uptake requires close attention when predicting water fluxes across the land surface, e.g., in agricultural crop models or in land surface schemes of weather and climate models. The key parameters for a successful simultaneous simulation of soil moisture dynamics and evapotranspiration in Richards equation-based models are the soil hydraulic parameters, which describe the shapes of the soil water retention curve and the soil hydraulic conductivity curve. As measurements of these parameters are expensive and their estimation from basic soil data via pedotransfer functions is rather inaccurate, the values of the soil hydraulic parameters are frequently inversely estimated by fitting the model to measured time series of soil water content and evapotranspiration. It is common to simulate root water uptake and transpiration by simple stress functions, which describe from which soil layer water is absorbed by roots and predict when total crop transpiration is decreased in case of soil water limitations. As for most of the biogeophysical processes simulated in crop and land surface models, there exist several alternative functional relationships for simulating root water uptake and there is no clear reason for preferring one process representation over another. The error associated with alternative representations of root water uptake, however, contributes to structural model uncertainty and the choice of the root water uptake model may have a significant impact on the values of the soil hydraulic parameters estimated inversely. In this study, we use the agroecosystem model system Expert-N to simulate soil moisture dynamics and evapotranspiration at three agricultural field sites located in two contrasting regions in Southwest Germany (Kraichgau, Swabian Alb). The Richards

  4. Estimating the incidence, prevalence and true cost of asthma in the UK: secondary analysis of national stand-alone and linked databases in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales—a study protocol

    PubMed Central

    Mukherjee, Mome; Gupta, Ramyani; Farr, Angela; Heaven, Martin; Stoddart, Andrew; Nwaru, Bright I; Fitzsimmons, Deborah; Chamberlain, George; Bandyopadhyay, Amrita; Fischbacher, Colin; Dibben, Christopher; Shields, Michael; Phillips, Ceri; Strachan, David; Davies, Gwyneth; McKinstry, Brian; Sheikh, Aziz

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Asthma is now one of the most common long-term conditions in the UK. It is therefore important to develop a comprehensive appreciation of the healthcare and societal costs in order to inform decisions on care provision and planning. We plan to build on our earlier estimates of national prevalence and costs from asthma by filling the data gaps previously identified in relation to healthcare and broadening the field of enquiry to include societal costs. This work will provide the first UK-wide estimates of the costs of asthma. In the context of asthma for the UK and its member countries (ie, England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales), we seek to: (1) produce a detailed overview of estimates of incidence, prevalence and healthcare utilisation; (2) estimate health and societal costs; (3) identify any remaining information gaps and explore the feasibility of filling these and (4) provide insights into future research that has the potential to inform changes in policy leading to the provision of more cost-effective care. Methods and analysis Secondary analyses of data from national health surveys, primary care, prescribing, emergency care, hospital, mortality and administrative data sources will be undertaken to estimate prevalence, healthcare utilisation and outcomes from asthma. Data linkages and economic modelling will be undertaken in an attempt to populate data gaps and estimate costs. Separate prevalence and cost estimates will be calculated for each of the UK-member countries and these will then be aggregated to generate UK-wide estimates. Ethics and dissemination Approvals have been obtained from the NHS Scotland Information Services Division's Privacy Advisory Committee, the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Collaboration Review System, the NHS South-East Scotland Research Ethics Service and The University of Edinburgh's Centre for Population Health Sciences Research Ethics Committee. We will produce a report for Asthma-UK, submit papers to

  5. Prevalence of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus (BVDV) in Persistently Infected Cattle and BVDV Subtypes in Affected Cattle in Beef Herds in South Central U.S.

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The prevalence of bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) persistently infected (PI) cattle in beef breeding herds was determined in 30 herds with 4530 calves. The samples collected by ear notches were tested for BVDV antigen using immunohistochemistry (IHC) and antigen capture ELISA (ACE). Animals wit...

  6. The Prevalence of Sexual Behavior Stigma Affecting Gay Men and Other Men Who Have Sex with Men Across Sub-Saharan Africa and in the United States

    PubMed Central

    Sanchez, Travis Howard; Sullivan, Patrick Sean; Ketende, Sosthenes; Lyons, Carrie; Charurat, Manhattan E; Drame, Fatou Maria; Diouf, Daouda; Ezouatchi, Rebecca; Kouanda, Seni; Anato, Simplice; Mothopeng, Tampose; Mnisi, Zandile; Baral, Stefan David

    2016-01-01

    Background There has been increased attention for the need to reduce stigma related to sexual behaviors among gay men and other men who have sex with men (MSM) as part of comprehensive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention and treatment programming. However, most studies focused on measuring and mitigating stigma have been in high-income settings, challenging the ability to characterize the transferability of these findings because of lack of consistent metrics across settings. Objective The objective of these analyses is to describe the prevalence of sexual behavior stigma in the United States, and to compare the prevalence of sexual behavior stigma between MSM in Southern and Western Africa and in the United States using consistent metrics. Methods The same 13 sexual behavior stigma items were administered in face-to-face interviews to 4285 MSM recruited in multiple studies from 2013 to 2016 from 7 Sub-Saharan African countries and to 2590 MSM from the 2015 American Men’s Internet Survey (AMIS), an anonymous Web-based behavioral survey. We limited the study sample to men who reported anal sex with a man at least once in the past 12 months and men who were aged 18 years and older. Unadjusted and adjusted prevalence ratios were used to compare the prevalence of stigma between groups. Results Within the United States, prevalence of sexual behavior stigma did not vary substantially by race/ethnicity or geographic region except in a few instances. Feeling afraid to seek health care, avoiding health care, feeling like police refused to protect, being blackmailed, and being raped were more commonly reported in rural versus urban settings in the United States (P<.05 for all). In the United States, West Africa, and Southern Africa, MSM reported verbal harassment as the most common form of stigma. Disclosure of same-sex practices to family members increased prevalence of reported stigma from family members within all geographic settings (P<.001 for all). After

  7. Prevalence of Metabolic Syndrome and Affecting Factors among Individuals Aged 30 and over in Balçova District of İzmir

    PubMed Central

    Soysal, Ahmet; Şimşek, Hatice; Doğanay, Sinem; Günay, Türkan

    2016-01-01

    Background: The studies have shown that metabolic syndrome (MetS) leads to an increase twice as much in cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and four times as much in diabetes mellitus (DM) prevalence since the second half of the 20th century. Aims: This study aims to determine and discuss the prevalence of the MetS and co- factors among individuals at the age of 30 and over in Balcova district of İzmir province according to the American National Cholesterol Education Program - Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III) and InternationalDiabetes Federation (IDF) criteria. Study Design: Cross-sectional study. Methods: Data obtained from the Balcova Heart Project in İzmir were used in the study. The dependent variable of the study is MetS existence. The independent variables were socio-demographic characteristics (age, gender, education level, and marital status), self-perceived economic status, physical activity, smoking status, healthy nutrition and body mass index (BMI). Results: The prevalence of MetS was 36.9% according to the diagnostic criteria of IDF, while it was 27.4% according to ATP III criteria. According to the both criteria, increasing age, low education, poor economic status perception, physical inactivity, and obesity increase the risk of MetS. Apart from the IDF criteria, being female and a current smoker increase the risk of the MetS in the NCEP-ATP III. Conclusion: Compared to educational studies of MetS as of today, which are community and health-oriented studies, it is challenging that the prevalence of MetS was found to be high for both criteria in our study. Therefore, in particular, primary health care doctors must be prompted to protect the public against DM and CVD in particular. PMID:27308078

  8. Prevalence and characteristics of women at risk for an alcohol-exposed pregnancy (AEP) in the United States: estimates from the National Survey of Family Growth.

    PubMed

    Cannon, Michael J; Guo, Jing; Denny, Clark H; Green, Patricia P; Miracle, Heidi; Sniezek, Joseph E; Floyd, R Louise

    2015-04-01

    Non-pregnant women can avoid alcohol-exposed pregnancies (AEPs) by modifying drinking and/or contraceptive practices. The purpose of this study was to estimate the number and characteristics of women in the United States who are at risk of AEPs. We analyzed data from in-person interviews obtained from a national probability sample (i.e., the National Survey of Family Growth) of reproductive-aged women conducted from January 2002 to March 2003. To be at risk of AEP, a woman had to have met the following criteria in the last month: (1) was drinking; (2) had vaginal intercourse with a man; and (3) did not use contraception. During a 1-month period, nearly 2 million U.S. women were at risk of an AEP (95 % confidence interval 1,760,079-2,288,104), including more than 600,000 who were binge drinking. Thus, 3.4 %, or 1 in 30, of all non-pregnant women were at risk of an AEP. Most demographic and behavioral characteristics were not clearly associated with AEP risk. However, pregnancy intention was strongly associated with AEP risk (prevalence ratio = 12.0, P < 0.001) because women often continued to drink even after they stopped using contraception. Nearly 2 million U.S. women are at AEP risk and therefore at risk of having children born with fetal alcohol spectrum disorders. For pregnant women and women intending a pregnancy, there is an urgent need for wider implementation of prevention programs and policy approaches that can reduce the risk for this serious public health problem. PMID:24996954

  9. Comparison of the information provided by electronic health records data and a population health survey to estimate prevalence of selected health conditions and multimorbidity

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Health surveys (HS) are a well-established methodology for measuring the health status of a population. The relative merit of using information based on HS versus electronic health records (EHR) to measure multimorbidity has not been established. Our study had two objectives: 1) to measure and compare the prevalence and distribution of multimorbidity in HS and EHR data, and 2) to test specific hypotheses about potential differences between HS and EHR reporting of diseases with a symptoms-based diagnosis and those requiring diagnostic testing. Methods Cross-sectional study using data from a periodic HS conducted by the Catalan government and from EHR covering 80% of the Catalan population aged 15 years and older. We determined the prevalence of 27 selected health conditions in both data sources, calculated the prevalence and distribution of multimorbidity (defined as the presence of ≥2 of the selected conditions), and determined multimorbidity patterns. We tested two hypotheses: a) health conditions requiring diagnostic tests for their diagnosis and management would be more prevalent in the EHR; and b) symptoms-based health problems would be more prevalent in the HS data. Results We analysed 15,926 HS interviews and 1,597,258 EHRs. The profile of the EHR sample was 52% women, average age 47 years (standard deviation: 18.8), and 68% having at least one of the selected health conditions, the 3 most prevalent being hypertension (20%), depression or anxiety (16%) and mental disorders (15%). Multimorbidity was higher in HS than in EHR data (60% vs. 43%, respectively, for ages 15-75+, P <0.001, and 91% vs. 83% in participants aged ≥65 years, P <0.001). The most prevalent multimorbidity cluster was cardiovascular. Circulation disorders (other than varicose veins), chronic allergies, neck pain, haemorrhoids, migraine or frequent headaches and chronic constipation were more prevalent in the HS. Most symptomatic conditions (71%) had a higher prevalence in

  10. Discordance between Prevalent Vertebral Fracture and Vertebral Strength Estimated by the Finite Element Method Based on Quantitative Computed Tomography in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Bone fragility is increased in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), but a useful method to estimate bone fragility in T2DM patients is lacking because bone mineral density alone is not sufficient to assess the risk of fracture. This study investigated the association between prevalent vertebral fractures (VFs) and the vertebral strength index estimated by the quantitative computed tomography-based nonlinear finite element method (QCT-based nonlinear FEM) using multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) for clinical practice use. Research Design and Methods A cross-sectional observational study was conducted on 54 postmenopausal women and 92 men over 50 years of age, all of whom had T2DM. The vertebral strength index was compared in patients with and without VFs confirmed by spinal radiographs. A standard FEM procedure was performed with the application of known parameters for the bone material properties obtained from nondiabetic subjects. Results A total of 20 women (37.0%) and 39 men (42.4%) with VFs were identified. The vertebral strength index was significantly higher in the men than in the women (P<0.01). Multiple regression analysis demonstrated that the vertebral strength index was significantly and positively correlated with the spinal bone mineral density (BMD) and inversely associated with age in both genders. There were no significant differences in the parameters, including the vertebral strength index, between patients with and without VFs. Logistic regression analysis adjusted for age, spine BMD, BMI, HbA1c, and duration of T2DM did not indicate a significant relationship between the vertebral strength index and the presence of VFs. Conclusion The vertebral strength index calculated by QCT-based nonlinear FEM using material property parameters obtained from nondiabetic subjects, whose risk of fracture is lower than that of T2DM patients, was not significantly associated with bone fragility in patients with T2DM. This discordance

  11. Prevalence of Mental Disorders in the South-East of Spain, One of the European Regions Most Affected by the Economic Crisis: The Cross-Sectional PEGASUS-Murcia Project

    PubMed Central

    Navarro-Mateu, Fernando; Tormo, Mª José; Salmerón, Diego; Vilagut, Gemma; Navarro, Carmen; Ruíz-Merino, Guadalupe; Escámez, Teresa; Júdez, Javier; Martínez, Salvador; Kessler, Ron C.; Alonso, Jordi

    2015-01-01

    estimates for Spain. Prevalence was strongly associated with exposure to stressors related to the economic crisis. PMID:26394150

  12. Factors Affecting the Prevalence of Strongly and Weakly Carcinogenic and Lower-Risk Human Papillomaviruses in Anal Specimens in a Cohort of Men Who Have Sex with Men (MSM)

    PubMed Central

    Wiley, Dorothy J.; Li, Xiuhong; Hsu, Hilary; Seaberg, Eric C.; Cranston, Ross D.; Young, Stephen; D’Souza, Gypsyamber; Martínez-Maza, Otoniel; DeAzambuja, Katherine; Chua, Kristofer; Hussain, Shehnaz K.; Detels, Roger

    2013-01-01

    Background MSM are at higher risk for invasive anal cancer. Twelve human papillomaviruses (HPVs) cause cervical cancer in women (Group 1 high-risk HPVs (hrHPVs)) and 13 HPVs are probable/possible causes (Group 2 hrHPVs) of cervical malignancy. HPVs rarely associated with malignancy are classified as lower-risk HPVs (lrHPVs). Materials and Methods Dacron-swab anal-cytology specimens were collected from and data complete for 97% (1262/1296) of Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) men tested for HPVs using the Linear Array assay. Multivariate Poisson regression analyses estimated adjusted prevalence ratios for Group 1/2 hrHPVs and lrHPVs, controlling for the effects of age, race, ethnicity, sexual partnerships, smoking; HIV-infection characteristics, treatment, and immune status among HIV-infected men. Results HIV-infected men showed 35–90% higher prevalence of Group 1/2 hrHPVs and lrHPVs than HIV-uninfected men, and higher prevalence of multi-Type, and multiple risk-group infections. CD4+ T-cell count was inversely associated with HPV Group 2 prevalence (p<0.0001). The number of receptive anal intercourse (RAI) partners reported in the 24 months preceding HPV testing predicted higher prevalence of Group 1/2 hrHPVs. Men reporting ≥30 lifetime male sex partners before their first MACS visit and men reporting ≥1 RAI partners during the 24 months before HPV testing showed 17–24% and 13–17% higher prevalence of lrHPVs (p-values ≤0.05). Men reporting smoking between MACS visit 1 and 24 months before HPV testing showed 1.2-fold higher prevalence of Group 2 hrHPVs (p = 0.03). Both complete adherence to CART (p = 0.02) and HIV load <50 copies/mL (p = 0.04) were protective for Group 1 hrHPVs among HIV-infected men. Conclusions HIV-infected men more often show multi-type and multi-group HPV infections HIV-uninfected men. Long-term mutual monogamy and smoking cessation, generally, and CART-adherence that promotes (HIV) viremia control and prevents

  13. The Prevalence of Syphilis in England and Wales on the Eve of the Great War: Re-visiting the Estimates of the Royal Commission on Venereal Diseases 1913-1916.

    PubMed

    Szreter, Simon

    2014-08-01

    Public fears of widespread venereal disease led in 1913 to the appointment of The Royal Commission on Venereal Diseases (RCVD). In 1916 its Final Report offered only a single cautious and somewhat imprecise summary statement about the likely prevalence of venereal diseases in England and Wales. Although the significance of contemporary attitudes to venereal disease has attracted a good deal of historiographic attention, no historian or demographer has since investigated this aspect of the Royal Commission's work. This article critically re-examines the most important quantitative evidence presented to the Royal Commission relating to the years immediately prior to the First World War. It utilises this evidence to produce new estimates of the probable prevalence of syphilis among adult males, both nationally and among certain geographical divisions and social groups in the national population; and also to offer a comment on the likely prevalence of gonorrhoea. PMID:25067890

  14. The Prevalence of Syphilis in England and Wales on the Eve of the Great War: Re-visiting the Estimates of the Royal Commission on Venereal Diseases 1913–1916

    PubMed Central

    Szreter, Simon

    2014-01-01

    Public fears of widespread venereal disease led in 1913 to the appointment of The Royal Commission on Venereal Diseases (RCVD). In 1916 its Final Report offered only a single cautious and somewhat imprecise summary statement about the likely prevalence of venereal diseases in England and Wales. Although the significance of contemporary attitudes to venereal disease has attracted a good deal of historiographic attention, no historian or demographer has since investigated this aspect of the Royal Commission's work. This article critically re-examines the most important quantitative evidence presented to the Royal Commission relating to the years immediately prior to the First World War. It utilises this evidence to produce new estimates of the probable prevalence of syphilis among adult males, both nationally and among certain geographical divisions and social groups in the national population; and also to offer a comment on the likely prevalence of gonorrhoea. PMID:25067890

  15. Affective Disorders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beach, Steven R. H.; Whisman, Mark A.

    2012-01-01

    Depression is a heterogeneous disorder with lifetime prevalence of "major depressive disorder" estimated to be 16.2%. Although the disorder is common and impairs functioning, it often goes untreated, with less than adequate response even when treated. We review research indicating the likely value of utilizing currently available, well-validated,…

  16. Estimating upper bounds for occupancy and number of manatees in areas potentially affected by oil from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

    PubMed

    Martin, Julien; Edwards, Holly H; Bled, Florent; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J; Dupuis, Jérôme A; Gardner, Beth; Koslovsky, Stacie M; Aven, Allen M; Ward-Geiger, Leslie I; Carmichael, Ruth H; Fagan, Daniel E; Ross, Monica A; Reinert, Thomas R

    2014-01-01

    The explosion of the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform created the largest marine oil spill in U.S. history. As part of the Natural Resource Damage Assessment process, we applied an innovative modeling approach to obtain upper estimates for occupancy and for number of manatees in areas potentially affected by the oil spill. Our data consisted of aerial survey counts in waters of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama and Mississippi. Our method, which uses a Bayesian approach, allows for the propagation of uncertainty associated with estimates from empirical data and from the published literature. We illustrate that it is possible to derive estimates of occupancy rate and upper estimates of the number of manatees present at the time of sampling, even when no manatees were observed in our sampled plots during surveys. We estimated that fewer than 2.4% of potentially affected manatee habitat in our Florida study area may have been occupied by manatees. The upper estimate for the number of manatees present in potentially impacted areas (within our study area) was estimated with our model to be 74 (95%CI 46 to 107). This upper estimate for the number of manatees was conditioned on the upper 95%CI value of the occupancy rate. In other words, based on our estimates, it is highly probable that there were 107 or fewer manatees in our study area during the time of our surveys. Because our analyses apply to habitats considered likely manatee habitats, our inference is restricted to these sites and to the time frame of our surveys. Given that manatees may be hard to see during aerial surveys, it was important to account for imperfect detection. The approach that we described can be useful for determining the best allocation of resources for monitoring and conservation. PMID:24670971

  17. Estimating Upper Bounds for Occupancy and Number of Manatees in Areas Potentially Affected by Oil from the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

    PubMed Central

    Martin, Julien; Edwards, Holly H.; Bled, Florent; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.; Dupuis, Jérôme A.; Gardner, Beth; Koslovsky, Stacie M.; Aven, Allen M.; Ward-Geiger, Leslie I.; Carmichael, Ruth H.; Fagan, Daniel E.; Ross, Monica A.; Reinert, Thomas R.

    2014-01-01

    The explosion of the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform created the largest marine oil spill in U.S. history. As part of the Natural Resource Damage Assessment process, we applied an innovative modeling approach to obtain upper estimates for occupancy and for number of manatees in areas potentially affected by the oil spill. Our data consisted of aerial survey counts in waters of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama and Mississippi. Our method, which uses a Bayesian approach, allows for the propagation of uncertainty associated with estimates from empirical data and from the published literature. We illustrate that it is possible to derive estimates of occupancy rate and upper estimates of the number of manatees present at the time of sampling, even when no manatees were observed in our sampled plots during surveys. We estimated that fewer than 2.4% of potentially affected manatee habitat in our Florida study area may have been occupied by manatees. The upper estimate for the number of manatees present in potentially impacted areas (within our study area) was estimated with our model to be 74 (95%CI 46 to 107). This upper estimate for the number of manatees was conditioned on the upper 95%CI value of the occupancy rate. In other words, based on our estimates, it is highly probable that there were 107 or fewer manatees in our study area during the time of our surveys. Because our analyses apply to habitats considered likely manatee habitats, our inference is restricted to these sites and to the time frame of our surveys. Given that manatees may be hard to see during aerial surveys, it was important to account for imperfect detection. The approach that we described can be useful for determining the best allocation of resources for monitoring and conservation. PMID:24670971

  18. Carrier frequency of the c.525delT mutation in the SGCG gene and estimated prevalence of limb girdle muscular dystrophy type 2C among the Moroccan population.

    PubMed

    El Kerch, Fatiha; Ratbi, Ilham; Sbiti, Aziza; Laarabi, Fatima-Zohra; Barkat, Amina; Sefiani, Abdelaziz

    2014-04-01

    Autosomal recessive limb-girdle muscular dystrophies (AR-LGMDs) are characterized by clinical and genetic heterogeneity. LGMD type 2C, or γ-sarcoglycanopathy, is the most frequent in North African populations as a result of the founder c.525delT mutation in the SGCG gene. Its epidemiology is poorly known in Morocco, and its prevalence among the Moroccan population has never been evaluated. This study screened 26 patients with a LGMD2C and 45 patients with an AR-LGMD phenotype for the c.525delT mutation. DNA extracted from umbilical cord blood samples of 250 newborns was tested for the same mutation. Molecular epidemiologic methods were used to calculate the frequency of heterozygotes for this mutation in Moroccan newborns and to estimate the prevalence of LGMD2C in the Moroccan population. The carrier frequency was estimated to be 1/250, which would imply that the prevalence of LGMD2C would be approximately 1/20,492 considering the effect of consanguinity. The homozygous c.525delT mutation was found in 65% of all patients with AR-LGMDs. These findings suggest that AR-LGMDs are prevalent in the Moroccan population and LGMD2C is one of the most common forms. This information might be useful for the development of diagnostic strategies on a large scale for better management of patients with AR-LGMD and genetic counseling of families. PMID:24552312

  19. Estimating benthic secondary production from aquatic insect emergence in streams affected by mountaintop removal coal mining, West Virginia USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Mountaintop removal and valley fill (MTR/VF) coal mining recountours the Appalachian landscape, buries headwater stream channels, and degrades downstream water quality. The goal of this study was to compare benthic community production estimates, based on seasonal insect emergen...

  20. Use of portable antennas to estimate abundance of PIT-tagged fish in small streams: Factors affecting detection probability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Horton, Gregg E.; Letcher, Benjamin H.

    2010-01-01

    Portable passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag antenna systems can be valuable in providing reliable estimates of the abundance of tagged Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in small streams under a wide range of conditions. We developed and employed PIT tag antenna wand techniques in two controlled experiments and an additional case study to examine the factors that influenced our ability to estimate population size. We used Pollock's robust-design capture–mark–recapture model to obtain estimates of the probability of first detection (p), the probability of redetection (c), and abundance (N) in the two controlled experiments. First, we conducted an experiment in which tags were hidden in fixed locations. Although p and c varied among the three observers and among the three passes that each observer conducted, the estimates of N were identical to the true values and did not vary among observers. In the second experiment using free-swimming tagged fish, p and c varied among passes and time of day. Additionally, estimates of N varied between day and night and among age-classes but were within 10% of the true population size. In the case study, we used the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model to examine the variation in p, and we compared counts of tagged fish found with the antenna wand with counts collected via electrofishing. In that study, we found that although p varied for age-classes, sample dates, and time of day, antenna and electrofishing estimates of N were similar, indicating that population size can be reliably estimated via PIT tag antenna wands. However, factors such as the observer, time of day, age of fish, and stream discharge can influence the initial and subsequent detection probabilities.

  1. Prevalence of Monoclonal Gammopathy of Undetermined Significance: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Wadhera, Rishi K.; Rajkumar, S. Vincent

    2010-01-01

    Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) is a premalignant plasma cell disorder that is associated with a lifelong risk of multiple myeloma. We conducted a systematic review of all studies investigating the prevalence and incidence of MGUS in the online database PubMed. The review was conducted from January 6, 2009, through January 15, 2010. The following MeSH search headings were used: monoclonal gammopathy, benign and prevalence; monoclonal gammopathy, benign and incidence; paraproteinemia and prevalence; and paraproteinemia and incidence. Articles were limited to those written in English and published by January 2009. Fourteen studies that met prespecified criteria were included and systematically assessed to identify the most accurate prevalence estimates of MGUS based on age, sex, and race. On the basis of our systematic review, we estimate that the crude prevalence of MGUS in those older than 50 years is 3.2% in a predominantly white population. Studies in white and Japanese populations demonstrate a clear increase in prevalence with age. The prevalence is also affected by sex: 3.7% and 2.9% in white men and women, respectively; and 2.8% and 1.6% in Japanese men and women, respectively. Additionally, MGUS is significantly more prevalent in black people (5.9%-8.4%) than in white people (3.0%-3.6%). We conclude that MGUS is a common premalignant plasma cell disorder in the general population of those older than 50 years. The prevalence increases with age and is affected by race, sex, family history, immunosuppression, and pesticide exposure. These results are important for counseling, clinical care, and the design of clinical studies in high-risk populations. PMID:20713974

  2. Changes in smoking prevalence among U.S. adults by state and region: Estimates from the Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey, 1992-2007

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Tobacco control policies at the state level have been a critical impetus for reduction in smoking prevalence. We examine the association between recent changes in smoking prevalence and state-specific tobacco control policies and activities in the entire U.S. Methods We analyzed the 1992-93, 1998-99, and 2006-07 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS) by state and two indices of state tobacco control policies or activities [initial outcome index (IOI) and the strength of tobacco control (SOTC) index] measured in 1998-1999. The IOI reflects cigarette excise taxes and indoor air legislation, whereas the SOTC reflects tobacco control program resources and capacity. Pearson Correlation coefficient between the proportionate change in smoking prevalence from 1992-93 to 2006-07 and indices of tobacco control activities or programs was the main outcome measure. Results Smoking prevalence decreased from 1992-93 to 2006-07 in both men and women in all states except Wyoming, where no reduction was observed among men, and only a 6.9% relative reduction among women. The percentage reductions in smoking in men and women respectively were the largest in the West (average decrease of 28.5% and 33.3%) and the smallest in the Midwest (18.6% and 20.3%), although there were notable exceptions to this pattern. The decline in smoking prevalence by state was correlated with the state's IOI in both women and men (r = -0.49, p < 0.001; r = -0.31, p = 0.03; respectively) and with state's SOTC index in women(r = -0.30, p = 0.03 0), but not men (r = -0.21, p = 0.14). Conclusion State level policies on cigarette excise taxes and indoor air legislation correlate strongly with reductions in smoking prevalence since 1992. Strengthening and systematically implementing these policies could greatly accelerate further reductions in smoking. PMID:21714876

  3. Prevalence of bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in persistently infected cattle and BVDV subtypes in affected cattle in beef herds in south central United States.

    PubMed

    Fulton, Robert W; Whitley, Evan M; Johnson, Bill J; Ridpath, Julia F; Kapil, Sanjay; Burge, Lurinda J; Cook, Billy J; Confer, Anthony W

    2009-10-01

    The prevalence of bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in persistently infected (PI) cattle in beef breeding herds was determined using 30 herds with 4530 calves. The samples were collected by ear notches and tested for BVDV antigens using immunohistochemistry (IHC) and antigen capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ACE). Animals with initial positives on both IHC and ACE were sampled again using both tests and serums were collected for viral propagation and sequencing of a viral genomic region, 5'-untranslated region (5'-UTR) for viral subtyping. Samples were also collected from the dams of PI calves. There were 25 PI calves from 4530 samples (0.55%) and these PI calves were from 5 of the 30 herds (16.7%). Two herds had multiple PI calves and 3 herds had only 1 PI calf. Only 1 of the 25 dams with a PI calf was also PI (4.0%). The subtype of all the PI isolates was BVDV1b. Histories of the ranches indicated 23 out of 30 had herd additions of untested breeding females. Twenty-four of the 30 herds had adult cowherd vaccinations against BVDV, primarily using killed BVDV vaccines at pregnancy examination. PMID:20046630

  4. Does Receiving an Earnings Supplement Affect Union Formation? Estimating Effects for Program Participants Using Propensity Score Matching

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harknett, Kristen

    2006-01-01

    This article demonstrates a novel application of propensity score matching techniques: to estimate nonexperimental impacts on program participants within the context of an experimental research design. The author examines the relationship between program participation, defined as qualifying for an earnings supplement by working full-time, and…

  5. Mentoring and Organizational Citizenship Behavior: Estimating the Mediating Effects of Organization-Based Self-Esteem and Affective Commitment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ghosh, Rajashi; Reio, Thomas G., Jr.; Haynes, Ray K.

    2012-01-01

    This study explored how perceptions of reciprocal support in mentoring influence mentors' and proteges' intent to extend work-related help to coworkers in organizations. Our findings shed light on the role that organization-based self-esteem (OBSE) and affective organizational commitment (AOC) play as mediators in transmitting the effect of…

  6. Prevalence of blood parasites in seabirds - a review

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Introduction While blood parasites are common in many birds in the wild, some groups seem to be much less affected. Seabirds, in particular, have often been reported free from blood parasites, even in the presence of potential vectors. Results From a literature review of hemosporidian prevalence in seabirds, we collated a dataset of 60 species, in which at least 15 individuals had been examined. These data were included in phylogenetically controlled statistical analyses of hemosporidian prevalence in relation to ecological and life-history parameters. Haemoproteus parasites were common in frigatebirds and gulls, while Hepatozoon occurred in albatrosses and storm petrels, and Plasmodium mainly in penguins. The prevalence of Haemoproteus showed a geographical signal, being lower in species with distribution towards polar environments. Interspecific differences in Plasmodium prevalence were explained by variables that relate to the exposure to parasites, suggesting that prevalence is higher in burrow nesters with long fledgling periods. Measures of Plasmodium, but not Haemoproteus prevalences were influenced by the method, with PCR-based data resulting in higher prevalence estimates. Conclusions Our analyses suggest that, as in other avian taxa, phylogenetic, ecological and life-history parameters determine the prevalence of hemosporidian parasites in seabirds. We discuss how these relationships should be further explored in future studies. PMID:22035144

  7. Comparison of Respondent Driven Sampling Estimators to Determine HIV Prevalence and Population Characteristics among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Moscow, Russia

    PubMed Central

    Wirtz, Andrea L.; Mehta, Shruti H.; Latkin, Carl; Zelaya, Carla E.; Galai, Noya; Peryshkina, Alena; Mogilnyi, Vladimir; Dzhigun, Petr; Kostetskaya, Irina; Beyrer, Chris

    2016-01-01

    Analytically distinct estimators have been proposed for the calculation of population-based estimates derived from respondent-driven sampling (RDS), yet there have been few comparisons of the inferences from these estimators using empirical data. We compared estimates produced by unweighted analysis used to calculate sample proportions and by three available estimators that are used to calculate population proportions, RDS-I, RDS-II (Volz-Heckathorn), and Gile’s RDS-SS. Data were derived from a cross-sectional, RDS study of men who have sex with men (MSM) conducted from October 2010 to April 2013 in Moscow, Russia (N = 1,376, recruitment depth: 31 waves). Analyses investigated the influence of key parameters: recruitment depth, homophily, and network size on sample and population estimates. Variability in results produced by the estimators and recruitment depth were statistically compared using the coefficient of variation (CV). Sample proportions had the least variability across different recruitment depths, compared to the RDS estimators. Population estimates tended to differ at lower recruitment depth but were approximately equal after reaching sampling equilibrium, highlighting the importance of sampling to greater recruitment depth. All estimators incorporate inverse probability weighting using self-reported network size, explaining the similarities in across population estimates and the difference of these estimates relative to sample proportions. Current biases and limitations associated with RDS estimators are discussed. PMID:27248818

  8. A Fast Method that Uses Polygenic Scores to Estimate the Variance Explained by Genome-wide Marker Panels and the Proportion of Variants Affecting a Trait

    PubMed Central

    Palla, Luigi; Dudbridge, Frank

    2015-01-01

    Several methods have been proposed to estimate the variance in disease liability explained by large sets of genetic markers. However, current methods do not scale up well to large sample sizes. Linear mixed models require solving high-dimensional matrix equations, and methods that use polygenic scores are very computationally intensive. Here we propose a fast analytic method that uses polygenic scores, based on the formula for the non-centrality parameter of the association test of the score. We estimate model parameters from the results of multiple polygenic score tests based on markers with p values in different intervals. We estimate parameters by maximum likelihood and use profile likelihood to compute confidence intervals. We compare various options for constructing polygenic scores, based on nested or disjoint intervals of p values, weighted or unweighted effect sizes, and different numbers of intervals, in estimating the variance explained by a set of markers, the proportion of markers with effects, and the genetic covariance between a pair of traits. Our method provides nearly unbiased estimates and confidence intervals with good coverage, although estimation of the variance is less reliable when jointly estimated with the covariance. We find that disjoint p value intervals perform better than nested intervals, but the weighting did not affect our results. A particular advantage of our method is that it can be applied to summary statistics from single markers, and so can be quickly applied to large consortium datasets. Our method, named AVENGEME (Additive Variance Explained and Number of Genetic Effects Method of Estimation), is implemented in R software. PMID:26189816

  9. Deposition of 7Be to Bermuda and the regional ocean: Environmental factors affecting estimates of atmospheric flux to the ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kadko, David; Prospero, Joseph

    2011-02-01

    The distribution of 7Be in ocean surface waters is used as tracer of upper ocean transport and atmospheric deposition processes. However, there is very little ocean deposition data available to characterize the temporal and spatial input of 7Be to the oceans and test model results. Here we measure the deposition of 7Be in bulk collectors at two sites at Bermuda over a span of nearly 2 years (April 2007 to January 2009) and compare these rates to the flux required to sustain the inventory of 7Be measured in the nearby Sargasso Sea. The Tudor Hill collector site undersampled (by ˜40%) both the rainfall compared to other Bermuda sites and the 7Be flux required for the ocean inventory. On the other hand, the 7Be flux captured at the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences station site (0.048 dpm cm-2 d-1) matched that expected from the ocean observations. Previously measured long-term atmospheric concentration of 7Be in surface air at Bermuda was used to estimate deposition velocities and scavenging ratios, and our estimates in this marine environment were found to be similar to those measured in continental regions. The deposition of 7Be to the oceans is overwhelmingly determined by wet processes; dry deposition to the ocean surface accounts for only a few percent, at most, of the total deposition to the ocean. We place these measurements in a longer-term and large-scale spatial context by using climatological rainfall data on Bermuda and ocean rainfall estimates from the Global Precipitation Climatology Program and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission.

  10. Measuring IPDE-SQ personality disorder prevalence in pre-sentence and early-stage prison populations, with sub-type estimates.

    PubMed

    Slade, Karen; Forrester, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the prevalence and type of personality disorder within prison systems allows for the effective targeting of resources to implement strategies to alleviate symptoms, manage behaviour and attempt to reduce re-offending. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of personality disorder (PD) traits within a local urban high-turnover adult male prison with a remand/recently sentenced population in London, UK. The International Personality Disorder Examination - Screening Questionnaire (IPDE-SQ) self-administered questionnaire (ICD-10 version) was completed by 283 prisoners (42% completion rate). 77% of respondents reached the threshold for one or more PDs. The most common PD types were Paranoid PD (44.5%), Anankastic PD (40.3%), Schizoid PD (35%) and Dissocial PD (25.8%). These results confirm and extend existing knowledge regarding the prevalence of PD in prison populations into a high-turnover, urban, remand population. The stark comparison with community samples indicates that a more equitable standard of service delivery within the criminal justice system, focussing on preventive and early intervention services, is now required. PMID:23627987

  11. Does receiving an earnings supplement affect union formation? Estimating effects for program participants using propensity score matching.

    PubMed

    Harknett, Kristen

    2006-12-01

    This article demonstrates a novel application of propensity score matching techniques: to estimate nonexperimental impacts on program participants within the context of an experimental research design. The author examines the relationship between program participation, defined as qualifying for an earnings supplement by working full-time, and marital union formation among low-income mothers in two Canadian provinces. The author finds that receipt of an earnings supplement substantially increased union formation in one province but not the other. A subgroup analysis based on propensities of program participation revealed that the positive effect on unions was concentrated among relatively disadvantaged participants. The techniques demonstrated in the article are broadly applicable to studies in which take-up is less than 100% among those randomly assigned to a program group. PMID:17093107

  12. Factors affecting application of milk allantoin as an estimator of microbial protein flow to the duodenum under commercial conditions.

    PubMed

    Schager, W M; Harrison, J H; Gaskins, C T; Davidson, D

    2003-05-01

    Three experiments were conducted to determine the effect of diet change, milk sampling technique, and bovine somatotropin (bST) on allantoin output in milk and the use of allantoin as a practical, noninvasive method for estimating microbial protein flow in dairy cattle. In experiment 1, four lactating Holstein cows were used in a 2 x 2 Latin square design with two treatments (ratio of forage to concentrate) and two periods. In experiment 2, six Holstein cows were used in a completely randomized design, and milk was collected by 1) a strip sample collected immediately before milking, 2) a strip sample collected 3 min from start of milking, and 3) a composite sample taken with an autosampler. In experiment three, 10 cows were used in a randomized block design to determine the effect of bST on milk allantoin. Milk samples were taken daily for 21 d, 7 d before, and 14 d after bST administration. In experiment 1, allantoin output (mmol/d) was significantly greater for cows fed the higher ratio of concentrate to forage, and there was a significant change in the amount of allantoin in milk 12 h (first subsequent milking) after a diet change. There was no difference in milk yield or dry matter intake between treatments. In experiment 2, no difference was detected in milk allantoin concentration among the three sampling methods. In experiment 3, milk yield, allantoin concentration, and total allantoin output was significantly increased after bST administration even though dry matter intake (DMI) remained unchanged. During the first 14 d following bST administration, estimates of microbial protein production derived from milk allantoin may be inaccurate due to increased milk production without an increase in DMI. PMID:12778582

  13. Molecular analysis of HEXA gene in Argentinean patients affected with Tay-Sachs disease: possible common origin of the prevalent c.459+5A>G mutation.

    PubMed

    Zampieri, Stefania; Montalvo, Annalisa; Blanco, Mariana; Zanin, Irene; Amartino, Hernan; Vlahovicek, Kristian; Szlago, Marina; Schenone, Andrea; Pittis, Gabriela; Bembi, Bruno; Dardis, Andrea

    2012-05-15

    Tay-Sachs disease (TSD) is a recessively inherited disorder caused by the deficient activity of hexosaminidase A due to mutations in the HEXA gene. Up to date there is no information regarding the molecular genetics of TSD in Argentinean patients. In the present study we have studied 17 Argentinean families affected by TSD, including 20 patients with the acute infantile form and 3 with the sub-acute form. Overall, we identified 14 different mutations accounting for 100% of the studied alleles. Eight mutations were novel: 5 were single base changes leading to drastic residue changes or truncated proteins, 2 were small deletions and one was an intronic mutation that may cause a splicing defect. Although the spectrum of mutations was highly heterogeneous, a high frequency of the c.459+5G>A mutation, previously described in different populations was found among the studied cohort. Haplotype analysis suggested that in these families the c.459+5G>A mutation might have arisen by a single mutational event. PMID:22441121

  14. Estimating postoperative survival of gastric cancer patients and factors affecting it in Iran: Based on a TNM-7 Staging System.

    PubMed

    Zeraati, Hojjat; Amiri, Zohreh

    2016-02-01

    Recently, reports have shown that gastric cancer has high abundance in Iran and is at the second level in men, and fourth in total. This study aimed to determine the 5-year survival of gastric cancer patients and to investigate factors affecting the performance, based on TNM-7 staging system. In this study, we investigated 760 patients with gastric cancer since the beginning of 1993 to the end of 2006 in the Iran Cancer Institute who underwent surgery. Survival of these patients was determined after surgery, and the effects of demographic characteristics such as age (during operation), sex, and information on diseases such as cancer site, pathologic type, stage of disease progress (Stage), metastasis and sites of metastases were evaluated. The 5 -year survival probability of patients was 28 %, and median survival time was 25.69 months. Univariate tests showed that sex, cancer site, and pathologic type have no significant effects on patient's survival. But the probability of 5-year survival significantly decreases with increasing age, and as it is expected, those with metastases were significantly less likely to have 5-year survival, and disease stage was significantly effective on patients' life (P<0.001). Simultaneous evaluation of different variables' effects on the probability of survival using the multiple Cox proportional hazards models showed that age and stage disease variables were effective on the survival of patients. The 5-year survival of patients with gastric cancer is low in Iran, although it is improved compared to the past. It seems that one of the main reasons for low survival rate of these patients is a late referral of patients for diagnosis and treatment. Most patients refer in the final stages of the disease, at this stage most patients are affected by lymph nodes metastases, liver and as the result, their treatment will be more difficult. PMID:26997598

  15. Comparison of two methods for estimating discharge and nutrient loads from Tidally affected reaches of the Myakka and Peace Rivers, West-Central Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Levesque, V.A.; Hammett, K.M.

    1997-01-01

    The Myakka and Peace River Basins constitute more than 60 percent of the total inflow area and contribute more than half the total tributary inflow to the Charlotte Harbor estuarine system. Water discharge and nutrient enrichment have been identified as significant concerns in the estuary, and consequently, it is important to accurately estimate the magnitude of discharges and nutrient loads transported by inflows from both rivers. Two methods for estimating discharge and nutrient loads from tidally affected reaches of the Myakka and Peace Rivers were compared. The first method was a tidal-estimation method, in which discharge and nutrient loads were estimated based on stage, water-velocity, discharge, and water-quality data collected near the mouths of the rivers. The second method was a traditional basin-ratio method in which discharge and nutrient loads at the mouths were estimated from discharge and loads measured at upstream stations. Stage and water-velocity data were collected near the river mouths by submersible instruments, deployed in situ, and discharge measurements were made with an acoustic Doppler current profiler. The data collected near the mouths of the Myakka River and Peace River were filtered, using a low-pass filter, to remove daily mixed-tide effects with periods less than about 2 days. The filtered data from near the river mouths were used to calculate daily mean discharge and nutrient loads. These tidal-estimation-method values were then compared to the basin-ratio-method values. Four separate 30-day periods of differing streamflow conditions were chosen for monitoring and comparison. Discharge and nutrient load estimates computed from the tidal-estimation and basin-ratio methods were most similar during high-flow periods. However, during high flow, the values computed from the tidal-estimation method for the Myakka and Peace Rivers were consistently lower than the values computed from the basin-ratio method. There were substantial

  16. Multi-test analysis and model-based estimation of the prevalence of Taenia saginata cysticercus infection in naturally infected dairy cows in the absence of a 'gold standard' reference test.

    PubMed

    Eichenberger, R M; Lewis, F; Gabriël, S; Dorny, P; Torgerson, P R; Deplazes, P

    2013-09-01

    The diagnostic values of seven serological tests (ELISAs) and of the obligatory European Union-approved routine visual meat inspection for the detection of Taenia saginata cysticercosis were investigated. A total of 793 slaughtered dairy cows were selected in three European Union approved abattoirs in Switzerland, an endemic area (apparent prevalence by enhanced meat inspection up to 4.5%) with typically low parasite burdens. ELISAs based on a somatic larval antigen, isoelectric focused somatic larval antigen, larval excretory/secretory antigens, peptide HP6-2, peptide Ts45S-10, pooled peptide solution and a monoclonal antibody antigen capture assay were initially screened. As there is no perfect diagnostic 'gold standard' reference test, the obligatory meat inspection and four selected serological tests were further analysed using Bayesian inference to estimate the "true" prevalence and the diagnostic test sensitivities and specificities. The ELISA for specific antibody detection based on excretory/secretory antigens showed highest sensitivity and specificity with 81.6% (95% credible interval: 70-92) and 96.3% (95% credible interval: 94-99), respectively. The Bayesian model estimated the specificity of the ELISA, based on the synthetic peptide Ts45S-10 as 55.2% (95% credible interval: 46-65) and sensitivity as 84.7% (95% credible interval: 82-88). The sensitivity of the ELISA based on mAbs, detecting circulating antigen, was 14.3% (95% credible interval: 9-23) with a specificity of 93.7% (95% credible interval: 92-96). The diagnostic sensitivity of the obligatory standard European Union meat inspection procedure for the detection of T. saginata cysticercus infection at the abattoir was estimated to be 15.6% (95% credible interval: 10-23). Based on these data, the modelled prevalence of cysticercosis in dairy cows presented at abattoirs in Switzerland was estimated to be 16.5% (95% credible interval: 13-21). These cattle also had a high prevalence of infection with

  17. Direct estimation of austenitic grain dimensions in heat affected zones of a martensitic steel from EBSD images.

    PubMed

    Altendorf, H; Faessel, M; Jeulin, D; Latourte, F

    2015-05-01

    In the context of automated analyses of electron-backscattered-diffraction images, we present in this paper a novel method to automatically extract morphological properties of prior austenitic grains in martensitic steels based on raw crystallographic orientation maps. This quantification includes the estimation of the mean chord length in specific directions, with in addition the reconstruction of the mean shape of austenitic grains inducing anisotropic shape properties. The approach is based on the morphological measure of covariance on a decision curve of grain fidelity per disorientation angle. These efforts have been motivated by the need of realistic microstructures to perform micromechanical studies of grain boundary localized damage phenomenons in steels, one example being the type IV fracture phenomenon occurring in welded joints of grade P91/P92 steel. This failure is attributed to a change of the microstructure due to thermal gradients arising during the welding process. To precisely capture the relationships between microstructural changes and mechanical fields localization in a polycrystalline aggregate, we first need to achieve a reasonable stochastic model of its microstructure, which relies on a detailed knowledge of the microstructural morphology. As martensitic steels possess multiscale microstructures composed of prior austenitic grains, packets and laths, a relevant modelling strategy has to be proposed to account for the observed hierarchies. With this objective, this paper focuses on the larger scale entities present in the microstructure, namely, the austenitic grains. PMID:25689129

  18. Depression in athletes: prevalence and risk factors.

    PubMed

    Wolanin, Andrew; Gross, Michael; Hong, Eugene

    2015-01-01

    Depression affects an estimated 6.7% of today's adult population in a 12-month period. The prevalence rates for certain age groups, such as young adults and older adults, are higher. There are approximately 400,000 National Collegiate Athletic Association student athletes competing each year and 5 to 7 million high school student athletes involved in competitive interscholastic sports. Given such a high prevalence rate in certain age groups and a large denominator pool of athletes, past notions that athletes are devoid of mental health issues have come under scrutiny by sports medicine providers. Initial data suggest that athletes are far from immune to depression. The purpose of this article was to review the current research on athletes and depression; particularly this article will provide an overview of studies, which have investigated the rate of depression among athletes, and discuss relevant risk factors, which may contribute to depression among athletes. PMID:25574886

  19. A Questionnaire-Based Survey of Indian ENT Surgeons to Estimate Clinic Prevalence of Acute Otitis Media, Diagnostic Practices, and Management Strategies.

    PubMed

    D'silva, Liesel; Parikh, Raunak; Nanivadekar, Arun; Joglekar, Sadhna

    2013-12-01

    Acute otitis media (AOM) is common in Indian children, but there is limited published information on its clinic prevalence, clinicians' diagnostic practices, and their management strategies. We approached 649 ear-nose-throat (ENT) surgeons to assess these aspects of AOM. We conducted the survey between May 2010 and February 2011 with the same set of ENT surgeons practising across India, once each during summer, monsoon and winter, using a validated 36-item questionnaire to record their reflective recall. 78 % (506/649) of approached ENT surgeons responded. The clinic prevalence of AOM was 43 % with peaks reported in July and December. 96 % (486/506) of the surgeons used otoscopy to diagnose AOM. 86 % (435/506) prescribed analgesics, and 89 % (449/506) prescribed decongestants. 98 % (495/506) treated AOM with an antibiotic at initial consultation: amoxicillin/clavulanic acid 78 % (395/506), amoxicillin 29 % (144/506), cefpodoxime 29 % (149/506), cefixime 28 % (141/506) and azithromycin 27 % (134/506). Amoxicillin/clavulanic acid 32 % (162/506) and cefpodoxime 27% (137/506) were mostly prescribed for relapse. The average reported duration of initial antibiotic therapy was 7 days and for relapse was 9 days. The reported clinic prevalence of AOM was higher (43 %) than anticipated (about 10 %) in ENT practice. Almost all the ENT surgeons used an otoscope to diagnose AOM. Amoxicillin/clavulanic acid was the preferred antibiotic for treating AOM either initially or for relapse. Most surgeons also used analgesics and decongestants for symptomatic relief. PMID:24427717

  20. Prevalence of Hepatitis B Virus Infection in Kenya, 2007.

    PubMed

    Ly, Kathleen N; Kim, Andrea A; Umuro, Mamo; Drobenuic, Jan; Williamson, John M; Montgomery, Joel M; Fields, Barry S; Teshale, Eyasu H

    2016-08-01

    Current estimates put the prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in Kenya at 5-8%. We determined the HBV infection prevalence in the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative Kenyan adult and adolescent population based on samples collected from a national survey. We analyzed data from HIV-negative participants in the 2007 Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey to estimate the HBV infection prevalence. We defined past or present HBV infection as presence of total hepatitis B core antibody (HBcAb), and chronic HBV infection (CHBI) as presence of both total HBcAb and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). We calculated crude and adjusted odds of HBV infection by demographic characteristics and risk factors using logistic regression analyses. Of 1,091 participants aged 15-64 years, approximately 31.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 28.0-35.3%) had exposure to HBV, corresponding to approximately 6.1 million (CI = 5.4-6.8 million) with past or present HBV infection. The estimated prevalence of CHBI was 2.1% (95% CI = 1.4-3.1%), corresponding to approximately 398,000 (CI = 261,000-602,000) with CHBI. CHBI is a major public health problem in Kenya, affecting approximately 400,000 persons. Knowing the HBV infection prevalence at baseline is important for planning and public health policy decision making and for monitoring the impact of viral hepatitis prevention programs. PMID:27273644

  1. Estimating bulk density of compacted grains in storage bins and modifications of Janssen's load equations as affected by bulk density.

    PubMed

    Haque, Ekramul

    2013-03-01

    Janssen created a classical theory based on calculus to estimate static vertical and horizontal pressures within beds of bulk corn. Even today, his equations are widely used to calculate static loadings imposed by granular materials stored in bins. Many standards such as American Concrete Institute (ACI) 313, American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers EP 433, German DIN 1055, Canadian Farm Building Code (CFBC), European Code (ENV 1991-4), and Australian Code AS 3774 incorporated Janssen's equations as the standards for static load calculations on bins. One of the main drawbacks of Janssen's equations is the assumption that the bulk density of the stored product remains constant throughout the entire bin. While for all practical purposes, this is true for small bins; in modern commercial-size bins, bulk density of grains substantially increases due to compressive and hoop stresses. Over pressure factors are applied to Janssen loadings to satisfy practical situations such as dynamic loads due to bin filling and emptying, but there are limited theoretical methods available that include the effects of increased bulk density on the loadings of grain transmitted to the storage structures. This article develops a mathematical equation relating the specific weight as a function of location and other variables of materials and storage. It was found that the bulk density of stored granular materials increased with the depth according to a mathematical equation relating the two variables, and applying this bulk-density function, Janssen's equations for vertical and horizontal pressures were modified as presented in this article. The validity of this specific weight function was tested by using the principles of mathematics. As expected, calculations of loads based on the modified equations were consistently higher than the Janssen loadings based on noncompacted bulk densities for all grain depths and types accounting for the effects of increased bulk densities

  2. Clinical risk factors for fracture in postmenopausal Canadian women: a population-based prevalence study.

    PubMed

    Leslie, William D; Anderson, William A; Metge, Colleen J; Manness, Lori-Jean

    2007-04-01

    Clinical risk factor assessment can be used to enhance fracture risk estimation based upon bone densitometry alone. Population- and age-specific risk factor prevalence data are required for the construction of these risk models. Our objective was to derive population-based prevalence estimates of specific clinical risk factors for postmenopausal women resident in the Province of Manitoba, Canada. A random sample of 40,300 women age 50 or older identified from the provincial health plan was mailed a validated self-report risk factor survey. The response rate was 8747 (21.7%) with a final study population of 8027 women after exclusions. The individual prevalence for each clinical risk factor ranged from 5.8% for hyperthyroidism to 33.0% for a fall in the preceding 12 months. Most point prevalence estimates were similar to other large cohort studies, though the prevalences of inactivity and poor mobility were higher than expected while height at age 25 and the prevalence of any fracture after age 50 were lower than expected. Most of the respondents (86.9%) had at least one non-age clinical risk factor, 60.6% had two or more, and 33.5% had three or more. Age affected risk factor prevalence, and older age was associated with a higher rate of multiple risk factors. The availability of age-specific risk factor prevalence rates in this population may allow for more accurate fracture risk modeling. PMID:17182296

  3. Prevalence of hypercalcemia among cancer patients in the United States.

    PubMed

    Gastanaga, Victor M; Schwartzberg, Lee S; Jain, Rajul K; Pirolli, Melissa; Quach, David; Quigley, Jane M; Mu, George; Scott Stryker, W; Liede, Alexander

    2016-08-01

    Hypercalcemia of malignancy (HCM) is a serious metabolic complication whose population-based prevalence has not been quantified. Rates of HCM differ by tumor type, with highest rates reported in multiple myeloma and lowest among colorectal and prostate cancer patients. This analysis estimates HCM prevalence in the US. This retrospective study used the Oncology Services Comprehensive Electronic Records (OSCER) warehouse of electronic health records (EHR) including laboratory values from 569000 patients treated at 565 oncology outpatient sites. OSCER data were projected to the national level by linking EHR to claims data. Cancer patients included were ≥18 years, and had serum calcium (Ca) and albumin (for corrected serum Ca [CSC]) records. Period prevalence was estimated by HCM CTCAE grade, tumor type, and year (2009-2013). Estimates were adjusted to capture patients diagnosed with HCM outside oncology practices based on a subset of patients linkable to office and hospital data. The analysis included 68023 (2009) to 121482 (2013) cancer patients. In 2013, patients with HCM had a median of six Ca tests, 69.7% had chemotherapy, and 34% received bone modifying agents. HCM rates were highest for multiple myeloma patients (7.5% [2012]-10.2% [2010]), lowest for prostate cancer (1.4% [2012]-2.1% [2011]).The estimated adjusted annual prevalence of HCM from 2009 to 2013 was 95441, 96281, 89797, 70158, and 71744, respectively. HCM affected 2.0-2.8% of all cancer patients. EHR data from oncology clinics were critical for this study because these data contain results from laboratory studies (i.e., serum calcium values) that are routinely ordered in that setting. We estimated that the prevalence of HCM in the US in 2013 is 71744, affecting approximately 2% of cancer patients overall. This percentage differs by tumor type and appears to have decreased over the five-year study period. PMID:27263488

  4. Tests on the centrifugal flotation technique and its use in estimating the prevalence of Toxocara in soil samples from urban and suburban areas of Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Loh, A G; Israf, D A

    1998-03-01

    The influence of soil texture (silt, sand and laterite) and flotation solutions (saturated NaCl, sucrose, NaNO3, and ZnSO4) upon the recovery of Toxocara ova from seeded soil samples with the centrifugal flotation technique was investigated. Soil samples of different texture were artificially seeded with Toxocara spp. ova and subjected to a centrifugal flotation technique which used various flotation solutions. The results showed significant (P < 0.001) interactions between the soil types and the flotation solutions. The highest percentage of ova recovery was obtained with silty soil (34.9-100.8%) with saturated NaCl as the flotation solution (45.3-100.8%). A combination of washing of soil samples with 0.1% Tween 80, and flotation using saturated NaCl and a 30 min coverslip recovery period was used to study the prevalence of contamination of soil samples. Forty-six soil samples were collected from up to 24 public parks/playgrounds in urban areas of Petaling Jaya and suburban areas of Serdang. The prevalence of Toxocara species in the urban and suburban areas was 54.5% and 45.8% respectively. PMID:9639899

  5. First evidence of Panulirus argus Virus 1 (PaV1) in spiny lobster from Cuba and clinical estimation of its prevalence.

    PubMed

    Cruz Quintana, Yanis; Rodríguez Canul, Rossanna; Vidal Martínez, Victor M

    2011-01-21

    The present study documents the first finding of Panulirus argus Virus 1 (PaV1) in spiny lobster Panulirus argus from Cuba. Samples originated from 2 nursery sites, Matias Keys and Bocas de Alonso Keys, and 2 fishing sites, La Grifa and El Ramajo. Lobsters from the nursery sites (artificial reefs) were collected by SCUBA diving, while those from the fishing sites were collected from artificial shelters known as 'casitas cubanas'. In these shelters it was observed that healthy lobsters tended to avoid infected lobsters. Prevalence of PaV1 in the sampling sites was assessed by using clinical signs such as lethargy, an opaque reddish shell coloration, and milky white hemolymph with loss of clotting activity. The presence of PaV1 was subsequently confirmed by histology and PCR of tissues and hemolymph samples from suspected individuals. Histological sections of the hepatopancreas, gills, gonads, and gut showed infected hemocytes with hypertrophied nuclei and eosinophilic intranuclear Cowdry type A inclusions. A 499 bp band was observed by PCR. The sequence of the amplified fragments was 96% similar to the PaV1 sequence in GenBank. The overall mean prevalence of PaV1 was 4.48% (range: 0 to 9.3%) after pooling the results of the 4 sampling sites. PMID:21381520

  6. Prevalence of paratuberculosis infection in dairy cattle in Northern Italy.

    PubMed

    Pozzato, N; Capello, K; Comin, A; Toft, N; Nielsen, S S; Vicenzoni, G; Arrigoni, N

    2011-10-01

    Paratuberculosis is a chronic granulomatous infection caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) that affects multiple ruminant species causing important economic losses. Therefore, control programmes at herd and regional levels have been established worldwide and prevalence estimates are needed for their implementation. Although different herd-level prevalence estimations for paratuberculosis have been reported in Europe, very few studies provided comparable and interpretable values, due to poor study designs and lack of knowledge about the accuracy of the diagnostic tests used. To overcome these problems we applied a latent class analysis to the results of two prevalence studies carried out in two neighbouring Northern Italian regions (Lombardy and Veneto) that account for over 50% of the Italian dairy cattle population. Serum samples from a randomly selected number of farms in the two regions were analyzed by different ELISA tests. The herd-level Apparent Prevalences (AP) were 48% (190/391) for Lombardy and 65% (272/419) for Veneto. Median within-herd APs were 2.6% and 4.0% for Lombardy and Veneto, respectively. Posterior estimates for the herd-level True Prevalences (TP) based on a Bayesian model were very similar between the two regions (70% for Lombardy and 71% for Veneto) and close to previous estimates of infected herds in Europe. The two 95% credibility intervals overlap each other, virtually showing only one distribution of the herd-level true prevalence for both regions. On the contrary, estimates of the within-herd TP distributions differed between the two regions (mean values: 6.7% for Lombardy and 14.3% for Veneto), possibly due to the different age distribution within the herds from the two regions. PMID:21807432

  7. [Tuberculosis prevalence survey in Japan].

    PubMed

    Shimao, Tadao

    2009-11-01

    national mental health survey, and unfortunately, there were some opponent groups against the national mental health survey, which affected the rate of response to the TB survey, too. In addition to the 5 prevalence surveys, one thirds of the survey population in 1953, 1958 and 1963 was surveyed in the next year to know the incidence of TB. Follow-up survey on active TB cases found in the 1953 and 1958 survey was carried out in 1964, and similar follow-up survey was carried out in 1968 for active TB cases found in 1953, 1958 and 1963 surveys. Moreover, survey subjects excluding active TB cases in 1968 were followed up until 1973, and the incidence of newly registered TB cases during this period was surveyed. Summarized results of TB prevalence surveys are reported. The first survey was carried out in 1953, and had been repeated every 5 years until 1973. As national TB control program (NTP) under new TB Control Law had been implemented since 1951, the results of 5 surveys clearly indicated the outcome of NTP of Japan. Age-specific prevalence of active TB in 5 surveys is shown in Fig. 1. Due to advances in chemotherapy, there was certain difference in the definition of active TB in 1953 and 1958, and chemotherapy was indicated more widely for those with TB pathology in lung in 1958. Comparing the age-specific prevalence of active TB in 1953 and 1958, the prevalence decreased in 1958 below 35 years of age, and increased above 35 years. The decline in the prevalence of active TB in age groups below 35 in spite of widening of definition of active TB in 1958 indicated the efficacy of TB control with mass screening and BCG vaccination and treatment for detected cases. As the definition of active TB had been unchanged since 1958 up to 1973, the decline in the prevalence of active TB seen in all age groups clearly indicated the achievements of NTP. Overall trend of prevalence of active TB, cavitary TB, bacillary TB and smear+PTB in 5 surveys is shown in Fig. 2 together with

  8. Patient-reported side effects, concerns and adherence to corticosteroid treatment for asthma, and comparison with physician estimates of side-effect prevalence: a UK-wide, cross-sectional study

    PubMed Central

    Cooper, Vanessa; Metcalf, Leanne; Versnel, Jenny; Upton, Jane; Walker, Samantha; Horne, Rob

    2015-01-01

    Background: Non-adherence to corticosteroid treatment has been shown to reduce treatment efficacy, thus compromising asthma control. Aims: To examine the experiences of treatment side effects, treatment concerns and adherence to inhaled (ICS) and oral corticosteroids (OCS) among people with asthma and to identify the degree of concordance between clinician estimates of side effects and the prevalence reported by patients. Methods: Asthma UK members were sent validated questionnaires assessing treatment concerns, experiences of side effects and adherence. Questionnaires measuring clinicians’ estimates of the prevalence of corticosteroid side effects were completed online. Results: Completed questionnaires were returned by 1,524 people taking ICS, 233 taking OCS and 244 clinicians (67% of clinicians were primary care nurses). Among people with asthma, 64% of those taking ICS and 88% of those taking OCS reported ⩾1 side effect. People reporting high adherence to ICS (t=−3.09, P<0.005) and those reporting low adherence to OCS (t=1.86, P<0.05; one-tailed test) reported more side effects. There was a disparity between clinicians’ estimates of the frequency of side effects and the frequency reported by people with asthma: e.g., although 46% of people taking ICS reported sore throat, clinicians estimated that this figure would be 10%. Patients who reported side effects had stronger concerns about both ICS (r=0.46, P<0.0001) and OCS (r=0.50, P<0.0001). Concerns about corticosteroids were associated with low adherence to ICS (t=6.90, P<0.0001) and OCS (t=1.71; P<0.05; one-tailed test). Conclusions: An unexpectedly large proportion of people with asthma experienced side effects and had strong concerns about their treatment, which compromised adherence. These findings have implications for the design of interventions to optimise asthma control through improved adherence. PMID:26158805

  9. Estimating trematode prevalence in snail hosts using a single-step duplex PCR: how badly does cercarial shedding underestimate infection rates?

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Trematode communities often consist of different species exploiting the same host population, with two or more trematodes sometimes co-occuring in the same host. A commonly used diagnostic method to detect larval trematode infections in snails has been based on cercarial shedding, though it is often criticized as inaccurate. In the present study we compare infection prevalences determined by cercarial emission with those determined, for the first time, by molecular methods, allowing us to quantify the underestimation of single and double infections based on cercarial emission. We thus developed a duplex PCR for two host-parasite systems, to specifically differentiate between single and double infections. The Ebro samples include two morphologically similar opecoelids, whereas the Otago samples include two morphologically different larval trematodes. Methods Snails were screened for infections by incubating them individually to induce cercarial emission, thus determining infection following the “classical” detection method. Snail tissue was then removed and fixed for the duplex PCR. After obtaining ITS rDNA sequences, four species-specific primers were designed for each snail-trematode system, and duplex PCR prevalence was determined for each sample. Results from both methods were statistically compared using the McNemar’s Chi-squared test and Cohen’s Kappa Statistic for agreement between outcomes. Results Overall infection prevalences determined by duplex PCR were consistently and substantially higher than those based on cercarial shedding: among Ebro samples, between 17.9% and 60.1% more snails were found infected using the molecular method, whereas in the Otago samples, the difference was between 9.9% and 20.6%. Kappa values generally indicated a fair to substantial agreement between both detection methods, showing a lower agreement for the Ebro samples. Conclusions We demonstrate that molecular detection of single and double infections by

  10. Multilevel regression and poststratification for small-area estimation of population health outcomes: a case study of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease prevalence using the behavioral risk factor surveillance system.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xingyou; Holt, James B; Lu, Hua; Wheaton, Anne G; Ford, Earl S; Greenlund, Kurt J; Croft, Janet B

    2014-04-15

    A variety of small-area statistical models have been developed for health surveys, but none are sufficiently flexible to generate small-area estimates (SAEs) to meet data needs at different geographic levels. We developed a multilevel logistic model with both state- and nested county-level random effects for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) using 2011 data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. We applied poststratification with the (decennial) US Census 2010 counts of census-block population to generate census-block-level SAEs of COPD prevalence which could be conveniently aggregated to all other census geographic units, such as census tracts, counties, and congressional districts. The model-based SAEs and direct survey estimates of COPD prevalence were quite consistent at both the county and state levels. The Pearson correlation coefficient was 0.99 at the state level and ranged from 0.88 to 0.95 at the county level. Our extended multilevel regression modeling and poststratification approach could be adapted for other geocoded national health surveys to generate reliable SAEs for population health outcomes at all administrative and legislative geographic levels of interest in a scalable framework. PMID:24598867

  11. Estimating the prevalence and burden of major disorders of the brain in Nepal: methodology of a nationwide population-based study

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The major disorders of the brain (MDBs), in terms of their prevalence and the burdens of ill health, disability and financial cost that they impose on individuals and society, are headache, depression and anxiety. No population-based studies have been conducted in Nepal. Aim Our purpose was to assess the prevalence and burden attributable to MDBs in Nepal in order to inform health policy. Here we report the methodology. Methods The unusual sociocultural diversity and extreme geographical variation of the country required adaptation of standard methodology. We ran pre-pilot and pilot studies before embarking on the main study. The study design was cross-sectional. The population of interest were adults aged 18–65 years who were Nepali speaking and living in Nepal. We selected, employed and trained groups of interviewers to visit randomly selected households by cold-calling. Households were selected from 15 representative districts out of 75 in the country through multistage cluster sampling. One participant was selected randomly from each household. We used structured questionnaires (the HARDSHIP questionnaire, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, and Eysenck Personality Questionnaire -Neuroticism), culturally adapted and translated into Nepali. We recorded blood pressure, weight, height and waist circumference, and altitude of each household. We implemented various quality-assurances measures. Results We completed the survey in one month, prior to onset of the monsoon. Among 2,210 selected households, all were contacted, 2,109 were eligible for the study and, from these, 2,100 adults participated. The participation rate was 99.6%. Conclusion Standard methodology was successfully applied in Nepal, with some adaptations. The sociocultural and extraordinary geographic diversity were challenging, but did not require us to compromise the scientific quality of the study. PMID:25146939

  12. Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factor Prevalence and Estimated 10-Year Cardiovascular Risk Scores in a Large Untreated French Urban Population: The CARVAR 92 Study

    PubMed Central

    Karam, Carma; Beauchet, Alain; Czernichow, Sebastien; de Roquefeuil, Florence; Bourez, Alain; Mansencal, Nicolas; Dubourg, Olivier

    2015-01-01

    Background Surveys measuring effectiveness of public awareness campaigns in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence have yielded equivocal findings. The aim of this study was to describe cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) changes over the years in an untreated population-based study. Methods Between 2007 and 2012, we conducted a screening campaign for CVRFs in men aged 40 to 65 yrs and women aged 50 to 70 yrs in the western suburbs of Paris. Data were complete for 20,324 participants of which 14,709 were untreated. Results The prevalence trend over six years was statistically significant for hypertension in men from 25.9% in 2007 to 21.1% in 2012 (p=0.002) and from 23% in 2007 to 12.7% in 2012 in women (p<0.0001). The prevalence trend of tobacco smoking decreased from 38.6% to 27.7% in men (p=0.0001) and from 22.6% to 16.8% in women (p=0.113). The Framingham 10-year risk for CVD decreased from 13.3 ± 8.2 % in 2007 to 11.7 ± 9.0 % in 2012 in men and from 8.0 ± 4.1 % to 5.9 ± 3.4 % in women. The 10-year risk of fatal CVD based on the European Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) decreased in men and in women (p <0.0001). Conclusions Over a 6-year period, several CVRFs have decreased in our screening campaign, leading to decrease in the 10-year risk for CVD and the 10-year risk of fatal CVD. Cardiologists should recognize the importance of community prevention programs and communication policies, particularly tobacco control and healthier diets to decrease the CVRFs in the general population. PMID:25906186

  13. Increasing Autism Prevalence in Metropolitan New Jersey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zahorodny, Walter; Shenouda, Josephine; Howell, Sandra; Rosato, Nancy Scotto; Peng, Bo; Mehta, Uday

    2014-01-01

    High baseline autism spectrum disorder prevalence estimates in New Jersey led to a follow-up surveillance. The objectives were to determine autism spectrum disorder prevalence in the year 2006 in New Jersey and to identify changes in the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder or in the characteristics of the children with autism spectrum disorder,…

  14. Estimation of selected streamflow statistics for a network of low-flow partial-record stations in areas affected by Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) in Maryland

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ries, Kernell G., III; Eng, Ken

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Maryland Department of the Environment, operated a network of 20 low-flow partial-record stations during 2008 in a region that extends from southwest of Baltimore to the northeastern corner of Maryland to obtain estimates of selected streamflow statistics at the station locations. The study area is expected to face a substantial influx of new residents and businesses as a result of military and civilian personnel transfers associated with the Federal Base Realignment and Closure Act of 2005. The estimated streamflow statistics, which include monthly 85-percent duration flows, the 10-year recurrence-interval minimum base flow, and the 7-day, 10-year low flow, are needed to provide a better understanding of the availability of water resources in the area to be affected by base-realignment activities. Streamflow measurements collected for this study at the low-flow partial-record stations and measurements collected previously for 8 of the 20 stations were related to concurrent daily flows at nearby index streamgages to estimate the streamflow statistics. Three methods were used to estimate the streamflow statistics and two methods were used to select the index streamgages. Of the three methods used to estimate the streamflow statistics, two of them--the Moments and MOVE1 methods--rely on correlating the streamflow measurements at the low-flow partial-record stations with concurrent streamflows at nearby, hydrologically similar index streamgages to determine the estimates. These methods, recommended for use by the U.S. Geological Survey, generally require about 10 streamflow measurements at the low-flow partial-record station. The third method transfers the streamflow statistics from the index streamgage to the partial-record station based on the average of the ratios of the measured streamflows at the partial-record station to the concurrent streamflows at the index streamgage. This method can be used with as few as

  15. Using Small-Area Estimation to Calculate the Prevalence of Smoking by Subcounty Geographic Areas in King County, Washington, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 2009–2013

    PubMed Central

    Mercer, Laina; Wakefield, Jon; Laurent, Amy; Solet, David

    2016-01-01

    Introduction King County, Washington, fares well overall in many health indicators. However, county-level data mask disparities among subcounty areas. For disparity-focused assessment, a demand exists for examining health data at subcounty levels such as census tracts and King County health reporting areas (HRAs). Methods We added a “nearest intersection” question to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and geocoded the data for subcounty geographic areas, including census tracts. To overcome small sample size at the census tract level, we used hierarchical Bayesian models to obtain smoothed estimates in cigarette smoking rates at the census tract and HRA levels. We also used multiple imputation to adjust for missing values in census tracts. Results Direct estimation of adult smoking rates at the census tract level ranged from 0% to 56% with a median of 10%. The 90% confidence interval (CI) half-width for census tract with nonzero rates ranged from 1 percentage point to 37 percentage points with a median of 13 percentage points. The smoothed-multiple–imputation rates ranged from 5% to 28% with a median of 12%. The 90% CI half-width ranged from 4 percentage points to 13 percentage points with a median of 8 percentage points. Conclusion The nearest intersection question in the BRFSS provided geocoded data at subcounty levels. The Bayesian model provided estimation with improved precision at the census tract and HRA levels. Multiple imputation can be used to account for missing geographic data. Small-area estimation, which has been used for King County public health programs, has increasingly become a useful tool to meet the demand of presenting data at more granular levels. PMID:27149070

  16. Human land use influences chronic wasting disease prevalence in mule deer

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Farnsworth, Matthew L.; Wolfe, L.L.; Hobbs, N.T.; Burnham, K.P.; Williams, E.S.; Theobald, D.M.; Conner, M.M.; Miller, M.W.

    2005-01-01

    Human alteration of landscapes can affect the distribution, abundance, and behavior of wildlife. We explored the effects of human land use on the prevalence of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) populations residing in north-central Colorado. We chose best approximating models estimating CWD prevalence in relation to differences in human land use, sex, and geographic location. Prevalence was higher in developed areas and among male deer, suggesting anthropogenic influences on the occurrence of disease. We also found a relatively high degree of variation in prevalence across the three study sites, suggesting that spatial patterns in disease may be influenced by other factors operating at a broader, landscape scale. Our results suggest that multiple factors, including changes in land use, differences in exposure risk between sexes, and landscape-scaled heterogeneity, are associated with CWD prevalence in north-central Colorado.

  17. Factors Affecting Firm Yield and the Estimation of Firm Yield for Selected Streamflow-Dominated Drinking-Water-Supply Reservoirs in Massachusetts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Waldron, Marcus C.; Archfield, Stacey A.

    2006-01-01

    Factors affecting reservoir firm yield, as determined by application of the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection's Firm Yield Estimator (FYE) model, were evaluated, modified, and tested on 46 streamflow-dominated reservoirs representing 15 Massachusetts drinking-water supplies. The model uses a mass-balance approach to determine the maximum average daily withdrawal rate that can be sustained during a period of record that includes the 1960s drought-of-record. The FYE methodology to estimate streamflow to the reservoir at an ungaged site was tested by simulating streamflow at two streamflow-gaging stations in Massachusetts and comparing the simulated streamflow to the observed streamflow. In general, the FYE-simulated flows agreed well with observed flows. There were substantial deviations from the measured values for extreme high and low flows. A sensitivity analysis determined that the model's streamflow estimates are most sensitive to input values for average annual precipitation, reservoir drainage area, and the soil-retention number-a term that describes the amount of precipitation retained by the soil in the basin. The FYE model currently provides the option of using a 1,000-year synthetic record constructed by randomly sampling 2-year blocks of concurrent streamflow and precipitation records 500 times; however, the synthetic record has the potential to generate records of precipitation and streamflow that do not reflect the worst historical drought in Massachusetts. For reservoirs that do not have periods of drawdown greater than 2 years, the bootstrap does not offer any additional information about the firm yield of a reservoir than the historical record does. For some reservoirs, the use of a synthetic record to determine firm yield resulted in as much as a 30-percent difference between firm-yield values from one simulation to the next. Furthermore, the assumption that the synthetic traces of streamflow are statistically equivalent to the

  18. Prevalence and safety of off-label use of chemotherapeutic agents in older breast cancer patients: estimates from SEER-Medicare data

    PubMed Central

    Eaton, Anne A.; Sima, Camelia S.; Panageas, Katherine S.

    2016-01-01

    Background The practice of prescribing oncology drugs outside of the label indication is legal and may reflect standard practice. However, some off-label use is against practice guidelines and may be inappropriate. We aimed to measure the prevalence and safety of off-label use in accordance with NCCN guidelines and off-label use inconsistent with guidelines in older breast cancer patients. Patients and Methods The SEER-Medicare dataset was used to identify women diagnosed with a first primary breast cancer between 2000-2007. Intravenous chemotherapy agents were identified using Medicare claims and classified as on-label, off-label/NCCN supported or off-label/unsupported using contemporary FDA approvals and NCCN guidelines. Off-label/unsupported regimens were matched to off-label/supported and on-label regimens using 1:1:1 matching on patient factors, and hospitalization/ER admission rates were compared across indication categories using conditional logistic regression. Results 13,347 women were treated with 16,127 regimens (12% of women switched to a new regimen during followup). Sixty-four percent (10,391) of regimens were off-label/supported, 25% (3,987) were on-label and 11% (1,749) were off-label/unsupported. Drugs never supported for breast cancer accounted for 19% of off-label/unsupported use and 1% of total use. Hospitalization/ER admission occurred in 32% of off-label/unsupported regimens, compared to 27% of off-label/supported and 25% of on-label regimens (p<.0001). Conclusions Off-label use of chemotherapy without scientific support was not common in this cohort. Off-label/supported use accounted for 64% of use, reflecting the fact that widely-accepted indications are often not tested in registration trials. Off-label/supported use will likely increase as more drugs are expected to have activity across cancer sites, and understanding the safety implications of such use is critical. PMID:26733555

  19. Cardiovascular risk estimated after 13 years of follow-up in a low-incidence Mediterranean region with high-prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Murcia (south-east Spain) shows increased cardiovascular (CV) morbimortality as compared to other Spanish regions. Our objective was to assess the CV risk associated with major risk factors (RF) among adult population of Murcia. Methods A cohort of 2314 subjects (18-70 years) with full biochemical and questionnaire data was followed-up for 13 years. Incident cases of ischemic heart disease and stroke were identified by record linkage, individual questionnaires and revision of medical records. Relative risks were obtained by multivariate Cox regression stratified by age and sex, and ischemic risk attributable to CVRF was calculated. Results After more than 26276 person-years of follow-up, 57 incident ischemic events (77% men) and 37 stroke cases (62% men) were identified. Independent risk factors of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and all CV events combined, with RR ranging from 1.6 to 2.6, were total serum cholesterol ≥ 240 mg/dl (HR = 2.6, 95%CI:1.3-5.1), blood pressure levels ≥ 140/90 mmHg (HR = 2.6, 95%CI:1.4-4.8), ever tobacco smoking (HR = 2.2; 95%CI:1.1-4.5), and diabetes (HR = 2.0; 95%CI: 1.0-3.8). No increased CV risk was detected for known participants under treatment who showed cholesterol and blood pressure values below the clinical risk threshold. Smoking was significantly associated with stroke. For all events combined, the major risk factors were hypercholesterolemia, hypertension and ever use of tobacco. Despite its high prevalence, obesity was not associated to CV risk. Most of the IHD cases were attributable to smoking (44%), hypertension (38%) and hypercholesterolemia (26%). Conclusions In the Region of Murcia, smoking accounted for the largest proportion of cardiovascular risk, whereas hypertension displaced hypercholesterolemia as the second leading cause of CV disease. Our study deepens in our understanding of the cardiovascular epidemiology in Spanish areas of Mediterranean Europe with relatively high cardiovascular morbimortality

  20. [Prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders in nursing professionals].

    PubMed

    Ribeiro, Natália Fonseca; Fernandes, Rita de Cássia Pereira; Solla, Davi Jorge Fontoura; Santos Junior, Anivaldo Costa; de Sena Junior, Antonio Santos

    2012-06-01

    A cross-sectional study estimated the prevalence of work-related musculoskeletal disorders among nursing assistants in Salvador, Bahia. Three hundred and eight workers, randomly selected, answered a questionnaire applied by trained interviewers during working hours. The majority of respondents worked the day shift and did not usually work overtime. About 34% reported having another regular job. Average time in the formal or informal labor market was 19 years. There was high occupational exposure to repetitive hand movements, standing posture, walking, inadequate postures of the trunk and manual handling of loads. The prevalence of work-related musculoskeletal disorders in at least one body segment was 83.4%.The most affected body segments were: low back (53.9%), legs (51.9%), neck (36.4%), upper back (35.7%) and shoulders (33.8%). There was high prevalence of work-related musculoskeletal disorders in the studied population, which points out to the need for improvements in the working conditions of those professionals. PMID:22782108

  1. Trends in cancer prevalence in Quebec.

    PubMed

    Louchini, Rabia; Beaupré, Michel; Demers, Alain A; Goggin, Patricia; Bouchard, Clermont

    2006-01-01

    Cancer prevalence is of prime interest in public health because of its use in estimating the disease's burden on the heath care system. This study's objective was to estimate five-year prevalence of tumours from 1989 to 1999 and ten-year prevalence of tumours from 1994 to 1999 in the Province of Quebec (Canada). Five-year prevalence was used to represent tumours for which people are more likely to obtain primary treatment; ten-year prevalence included those tumours in addition to tumours that can be considered cured but still need follow-up. Information was extracted from the Quebec Cancer Registry. Prostate cancer was the most prevalent malignancy among males (25 percent, five-year prevalent tumours), while breast cancer was most prevalent among females (38 percent, five-year prevalent tumours). For both sexes, the greatest observed prevalence increase was for endocrine glands. On average, five-year prevalence proportions were 16 percent higher in men than in women; those of ten year were 14 percent higher in men. Furthermore, the largest differences were observed for bladder and lung cancer. The change in cancer prevalence in Quebec was dependent on the tumour site. PMID:17306062

  2. Estimating the Prevalence and Predictors of Incorrect Condom Use Among Sexually Active Adults in Kenya: Results From a Nationally Representative Survey

    PubMed Central

    Grasso, Michael A.; Schwarcz, Sandra; Galbraith, Jennifer S.; Musyoki, Helgar; Kambona, Caroline; Kellogg, Timothy A.

    2016-01-01

    Background Condom use continues to be an important primary prevention tool to reduce the acquisition and transmission of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. However, incorrect use of condoms can reduce their effectiveness. Methods Using data from a 2012 nationally representative cross-sectional household survey conducted in Kenya, we analyzed a subpopulation of sexually active adults and estimated the percent that used condoms incorrectly during sex, and the type of condom errors. We used multivariable logistic regression to determine variables to be independently associated with incorrect condom use. Results Among 13,720 adolescents and adults, 8014 were sexually active in the previous 3 months (60.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 59.0–61.7). Among those who used a condom with a sex partner, 20% (95% CI, 17.4–22.6) experienced at least one instance of incorrect condom use in the previous 3 months. Of incorrect condom users, condom breakage or leakage was the most common error (52%; 95% CI, 44.5–59.6). Factors found to be associated with incorrect condom use were multiple sexual partnerships in the past 12 months (2 partners: adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.5; 95% CI, 1.0–2.0; P = 0.03; ≥3: aOR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.5–3.5; P < 0.01) and reporting symptoms of a sexually transmitted infection (aOR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.8–4.3; P < 0.01). Conclusions Incorrect condom use is frequent among sexually active Kenyans and this may translate into substantial HIV transmission. Further understanding of the dynamics of condom use and misuse, in the broader context of other prevention strategies, will aid program planners in the delivery of appropriate interventions aimed at limiting such errors. PMID:26766524

  3. Bayesian modeling of animal- and herd-level prevalences.

    PubMed

    Branscum, A J; Gardner, I A; Johnson, W O

    2004-12-15

    We reviewed Bayesian approaches for animal-level and herd-level prevalence estimation based on cross-sectional sampling designs and demonstrated fitting of these models using the WinBUGS software. We considered estimation of infection prevalence based on use of a single diagnostic test applied to a single herd with binomial and hypergeometric sampling. We then considered multiple herds under binomial sampling with the primary goal of estimating the prevalence distribution and the proportion of infected herds. A new model is presented that can be used to estimate the herd-level prevalence in a region, including the posterior probability that all herds are non-infected. Using this model, inferences for the distribution of prevalences, mean prevalence in the region, and predicted prevalence of herds in the region (including the predicted probability of zero prevalence) are also available. In the models presented, both animal- and herd-level prevalences are modeled as mixture distributions to allow for zero infection prevalences. (If mixture models for the prevalences were not used, prevalence estimates might be artificially inflated, especially in herds and regions with low or zero prevalence.) Finally, we considered estimation of animal-level prevalence based on pooled samples. PMID:15579338

  4. Prevalence of Chronic Medical Conditions among Inmates in the Texas Prison System

    PubMed Central

    Baillargeon, Jacques G.; Pruitt, Sandi L.; Pulvino, John S.; Paar, David P.; Kelley, Michael F.

    2010-01-01

    Given the rapid growth and aging of the US prison population in recent years, the disease profile and health care needs of inmates portend to have far-reaching public health implications. Although numerous studies have examined infectious disease prevalence and treatment in incarcerated populations, little is known about the prevalence of non-infectious chronic medical conditions in US prison populations. The purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence of selected non-infectious chronic medical conditions among inmates in the Texas prison system. The study population consisted of the total census of inmates who were incarcerated in the Texas Department of Criminal Justice for any duration from September 1, 2006 through August 31, 2007 (N = 234,031). Information on medical diagnoses was obtained from a system-wide electronic medical record system. Overall crude prevalence estimates for the selected conditions were as follows: hypertension, 18.8%; asthma, 5.4%; diabetes, 4.2%; ischemic heart disease, 1.7%; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 0.96%; and cerebrovascular disease, 0.23%. Nearly one quarter (24.5%) of the study population had at least one of the selected conditions. Except for asthma, crude prevalence estimates of the selected conditions increased monotonically with age. Nearly two thirds (64.6%) of inmates who were ≥55 years of age had at least one of the selected conditions. Except for diabetes, crude prevalence estimates for the selected conditions were lower among Hispanic inmates than among non-Hispanic White inmates and African American inmates. Although age-standardized prevalence estimates for the selected conditions did not appear to exceed age-standardized estimates from the US general population, a large number of inmates were affected by one or more of these conditions. As the prison population continues to grow and to age, the burden of these conditions on correctional and community health care systems can be expected to

  5. A no-reference bitstream-based perceptual model for video quality estimation of videos affected by coding artifacts and packet losses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pandremmenou, K.; Shahid, M.; Kondi, L. P.; Lövström, B.

    2015-03-01

    In this work, we propose a No-Reference (NR) bitstream-based model for predicting the quality of H.264/AVC video sequences, affected by both compression artifacts and transmission impairments. The proposed model is based on a feature extraction procedure, where a large number of features are calculated from the packet-loss impaired bitstream. Many of the features are firstly proposed in this work, and the specific set of the features as a whole is applied for the first time for making NR video quality predictions. All feature observations are taken as input to the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression method. LASSO indicates the most important features, and using only them, it is possible to estimate the Mean Opinion Score (MOS) with high accuracy. Indicatively, we point out that only 13 features are able to produce a Pearson Correlation Coefficient of 0.92 with the MOS. Interestingly, the performance statistics we computed in order to assess our method for predicting the Structural Similarity Index and the Video Quality Metric are equally good. Thus, the obtained experimental results verified the suitability of the features selected by LASSO as well as the ability of LASSO in making accurate predictions through sparse modeling.

  6. ADHD Prevalence in Adult Outpatients with Nonpsychotic Psychiatric Illnesses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Almeida Montes, Luis Guillermo; Hernandez Garcia, Ana Olivia; Ricardo-Garcell, Josefina

    2007-01-01

    Objective: The prevalence of ADHD in the general adult population has been estimated to be about 4.4%. However, few studies exist in which the prevalence of ADHD in psychiatric adult outpatient samples has been estimated. These studies suggest that the prevalence is higher than in the general population. The objective of this study is to estimate…

  7. The Prevalence of Tic Disorders and Clinical Characteristics in Children

    PubMed Central

    Scahill, Lawrence; Specht, Matthew; Page, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    Background Prevalence is a simple statement about the frequency of a disease in the population. For many medical conditions, including Tourette syndrome, there are true cases that have not been previously diagnosed due to problems of access to appropriate clinical services. Therefore, to obtain a trustworthy estimate of prevalence, it is necessary to go beyond cases identified in clinical settings and evaluate community samples. Method We reviewed 11 community surveys in children with Tourette syndrome (TS) published since 2000. We also examined the frequency of co-occurring psychiatric conditions in community samples and large clinically-ascertained samples. Results Transient tics are relatively common affecting as many as 20% of school-age children. The 11 studies reviewed here offer a wide range of estimates from 2.6 to 38 per 1000 children for TS. Six studies provide estimates in a narrower range from 4.3 to 7.6 per 1000, but the confidence interval around this narrower range remains wide. Six studies provided results on chronic tic disorders ranging from 3 to 50 per 1000 for Chronic Motor Tic Disorder and 2.5 to 9.4 per 1000 for Chronic Vocal Tic Disorder. Community samples and large clinically-ascertained samples consistently show high rates of ADHD, disruptive behavior and anxiety disorders in children with TS. Conclusions The wide range of prevalence estimates for TS and chronic tic disorders is likely due to differences in sample size and assessment methods. The best estimate of prevalence for TS in school-age children is likely to fall between 4 and 8 cases per 1000. Clinical assessment of children with chronic tic disorders warrants examination of other problems such as ADHD, disruptive behavior and anxiety. PMID:25436183

  8. Quantifying Listeria monocytogenes prevalence and concentration in minced pork meat and estimating performance of three culture media from presence/absence microbiological testing using a deterministic and stochastic approach.

    PubMed

    Andritsos, Nikolaos D; Mataragas, Marios; Paramithiotis, Spiros; Drosinos, Eleftherios H

    2013-12-01

    Listeria monocytogenes poses a serious threat to public health, and the majority of cases of human listeriosis are associated with contaminated food. Reliable microbiological testing is needed for effective pathogen control by food industry and competent authorities. The aims of this work were to estimate the prevalence and concentration of L. monocytogenes in minced pork meat by the application of a Bayesian modeling approach, and also to determine the performance of three culture media commonly used for detecting L. monocytogenes in foods from a deterministic and stochastic perspective. Samples (n = 100) collected from local markets were tested for L. monocytogenes using in parallel the PALCAM, ALOA and RAPID'L.mono selective media according to ISO 11290-1:1996 and 11290-2:1998 methods. Presence of the pathogen was confirmed by conducting biochemical and molecular tests. Independent experiments (n = 10) for model validation purposes were performed. Performance attributes were calculated from the presence-absence microbiological test results by combining the results obtained from the culture media and confirmative tests. Dirichlet distribution, the multivariate expression of a Beta distribution, was used to analyze the performance data from a stochastic perspective. No L. monocytogenes was enumerated by direct-plating (<10 CFU/g), though the pathogen was detected in 22% of the samples. L. monocytogenes concentration was estimated at 14-17 CFU/kg. Validation showed good agreement between observed and predicted prevalence (error = -2.17%). The results showed that all media were best at ruling in L. monocytogenes presence than ruling it out. Sensitivity and specificity varied depending on the culture-dependent method. None of the culture media was perfect in detecting L. monocytogenes in minced pork meat alone. The use of at least two culture media in parallel enhanced the efficiency of L. monocytogenes detection. Bayesian modeling may reduce the time needed to draw

  9. How Various Sources of Uncertainty Affect Retrieval Uncertainty in the Optimal Estimation Framework Using a Non-precipitating Liquid Clouds Example

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Z.; Mace, G. G.; Turner, D. D.; Posselt, D. J.

    2014-12-01

    Optimal estimation (OE) is a commonly used inverse method in the geosciences. In a Bayesian context, a set of measurements (y) is related to the state vector to be retrieved (x) by the forward model F(x). Assuming Gaussian statistics, OE returns an optimal solution and its associated uncertainty by minimizing the cost function that consists of the state vector-a priori state difference weighted by the a priori uncertainty and the measurement-forward model difference weighted by the uncertainties of observation and forward model. OE algorithms are easy to implement and are finding increasing use within communities attempting to derive, for instance, cloud and precipitation microphysical properties from remote sensing data. However, even though OE algorithms are simple to implement, obtaining rigorous uncertainty estimates from them is a significant challenge. Our objective with this work is to illustrate the growth of retrieval uncertainty within the OE framework due to various sources using simple real world examples of non-precipitating liquid clouds. Within the OE retrieval, several sources of uncertainties contribute to the overall retrieval uncertainty (Sx), including the measurement uncertainty (Sy), the uncertainties in a priori information (Sa) and uncertainties in the forward model due to imperfectly known parameters (Sb). In this study, two examples are given to demonstrate how uncertainties in Sy, Sa and Sb affect the ultimate retrieval uncertainty Sx. We apply OE technique to retrieve cloud liquid water content (LWC) and total number from measurements of radar reflectivity and extinction obtained in 2005 Marine Stratus/Stratocumulus Experiment (MASE). In the first example, the forward model is assumed perfect, which means all parameters are certain and Sb is zero. Then we perturb Sy and Sa separately and observe the response of Sx. We find the observation error Sy contributes significantly to the retrieval uncertainty under the assumption of "perfect

  10. Predictors of Echinococcus multilocularis Prevalence in Definitive and Intermediate Hosts: A Meta-Analysis Approach.

    PubMed

    Takeuchi-Storm, Nao; Woolsey, Ian David; Jensen, Per Moestrup; Fredensborg, Brian Lund; Pipper, Christian Bressen; Kapel, Christian Moliin Outzen

    2015-06-01

    Echinococcus multilocularis (EM) is a pathogenic and potentially fatal cestode causing human alveolar echinococcosis (AE). A meta-analysis was conducted using a generalized estimation equation approach (GEE) to assess the effect of taxonomic, environmental, and diagnostic variables on EM prevalence in different hosts. Red foxes ( Vulpes vulpes ) had significantly higher prevalence of EM than domestic dogs ( Canis lupus familiaris), with the diagnostic method playing an important factor in assessing prevalence. For intermediate hosts genera was significantly associated with EM prevalence, although there was some indication of publication bias in this dataset. This study also highlights the possible importance of temperature and precipitation to EM transmission. This implies the possibility of a changing climate affecting the future distribution of the parasite. PMID:25723380

  11. Current Prevalence Pattern of Hypertension in Nigeria: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Akinlua, James Tosin; Meakin, Richard; Umar, Aminu Mahmoud; Freemantle, Nick

    2015-01-01

    Background The global burden of hypertension and other non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is rapidly increasing, and the African continent seems to be the most affected region in the world. The prevalence of hypertension in Nigeria forms a substantial portion of the total burden in Africa because of the large population of the country currently estimated to be over 170 million. Objective The purpose of this systematic review is to summarise up to date data on the prevalence and distribution of hypertension in Nigeria from prevalence studies. Methods A search of the following databases: PubMed, EMBase and WHO cardiovascular InfoBase from 1968 till date was conducted to identify studies which provide estimates of prevalence of hypertension in Nigeria. Results The search yielded a total of 1748 hits from which 45 relevant studies met the inclusion criteria for the review. The overall crude prevalence of hypertension ranged from 0.1% (95%CI:-0.1 to 0.3) to 17.5% (95% CI: 13.6 to 21.4) in children and 2.1% (95%CI: 1.4 to 2.8) to 47.2% (95%CI: 43.6 to 50.8) in adults depending on the benchmark used for diagnosis of hypertension, the setting in which the study was conducted, sex and ethnic group. The crude prevalence of hypertension ranged from 6.2% (95%CI: 4.0 to 8.4) to 48.9% (95%CI: 42.3 to 55.5) for men and 10% (95%CI: 8.1 to 12) to 47.3% (95%CI: 43 to 51.6%) for women. In most studies, prevalence of hypertension was higher in males than females. In addition, prevalence across urban and rural ranged from 9.5% (95%CI: 13.6 to 21.4) to 51.6% (95%CI: 49.8 to 53.4) and 4.8% (95%CI: 2.9 to 6.7) to 43% (95%CI: 42.1 to 43.9) respectively. Conclusions The prevalence of hypertension is high among the Nigerian population. Appropriate interventions need to be developed and implemented to reduce the preventable burden of hypertension especially at Primary Health Care Centres which is the first point of call for over 55% of the Nigerian population. PMID:26461923

  12. The global prevalence of common mental disorders: a systematic review and meta-analysis 1980–2013

    PubMed Central

    Steel, Zachary; Marnane, Claire; Iranpour, Changiz; Chey, Tien; Jackson, John W; Patel, Vikram; Silove, Derrick

    2014-01-01

    estimates. Conclusions: Despite a substantial degree of inter-survey heterogeneity in the meta-analysis, the findings confirm that common mental disorders are highly prevalent globally, affecting people across all regions of the world. This research provides an important resource for modelling population needs based on global regional estimates of mental disorder. The reasons for regional variation in mental disorder require further investigation. PMID:24648481

  13. Global Prevalence of Chronic Kidney Disease – A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Fatoba, Samuel T.; Oke, Jason L.; Hirst, Jennifer A.; O’Callaghan, Christopher A.; Lasserson, Daniel S.; Hobbs, F. D. Richard

    2016-01-01

    Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a global health burden with a high economic cost to health systems and is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). All stages of CKD are associated with increased risks of cardiovascular morbidity, premature mortality, and/or decreased quality of life. CKD is usually asymptomatic until later stages and accurate prevalence data are lacking. Thus we sought to determine the prevalence of CKD globally, by stage, geographical location, gender and age. A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies estimating CKD prevalence in general populations was conducted through literature searches in 8 databases. We assessed pooled data using a random effects model. Of 5,842 potential articles, 100 studies of diverse quality were included, comprising 6,908,440 patients. Global mean(95%CI) CKD prevalence of 5 stages 13·4%(11·7–15·1%), and stages 3–5 was 10·6%(9·2–12·2%). Weighting by study quality did not affect prevalence estimates. CKD prevalence by stage was Stage-1 (eGFR>90+ACR>30): 3·5% (2·8–4·2%); Stage-2 (eGFR 60–89+ACR>30): 3·9% (2·7–5·3%); Stage-3 (eGFR 30–59): 7·6% (6·4–8·9%); Stage-4 = (eGFR 29–15): 0·4% (0·3–0·5%); and Stage-5 (eGFR<15): 0·1% (0·1–0·1%). CKD has a high global prevalence with a consistent estimated global CKD prevalence of between 11 to 13% with the majority stage 3. Future research should evaluate intervention strategies deliverable at scale to delay the progression of CKD and improve CVD outcomes. PMID:27383068

  14. A reassessment of frequency estimates of PvuII-generated VNTR profiles in a Finnish, an Italian, and a general U.S. Caucasian database: no evidence for ethnic subgroups affecting forensic estimates.

    PubMed Central

    Budowle, B.; Monson, K. L.; Giusti, A. M.

    1994-01-01

    Recently, Krane et al. addressed the effect of estimating various target DNA profile frequencies in Finnish, Italian, and general U.S. Caucasian databases. They observed that, when using an "inappropriate ethnic," or noncognate, database (e.g., a Finnish target profile frequency estimated in an Italian database, and vice versa), estimates were less common than when the target profile frequencies were estimated using their own ethnic, or cognate, database, and these estimates differed by more than one order of magnitude. These differences were attributed to the effects of subgroups. We demonstrate that the differences can be ascribed to statistical artifacts that induce large biases and correlations. Additionally, we show that the differences of estimates of any specific DNA profile frequency based on allelic size frequencies from different databases become smaller when the fixed-bin rather than a +/- 2.5% floating-bin approach is used. PMID:7915881

  15. A reassessment of frequency estimates of PvuII-generated VNTR profiles in a Finnish, an Italian, and a general U.S. Caucasian database: no evidence for ethnic subgroups affecting forensic estimates.

    PubMed

    Budowle, B; Monson, K L; Giusti, A M

    1994-09-01

    Recently, Krane et al. addressed the effect of estimating various target DNA profile frequencies in Finnish, Italian, and general U.S. Caucasian databases. They observed that, when using an "inappropriate ethnic," or noncognate, database (e.g., a Finnish target profile frequency estimated in an Italian database, and vice versa), estimates were less common than when the target profile frequencies were estimated using their own ethnic, or cognate, database, and these estimates differed by more than one order of magnitude. These differences were attributed to the effects of subgroups. We demonstrate that the differences can be ascribed to statistical artifacts that induce large biases and correlations. Additionally, we show that the differences of estimates of any specific DNA profile frequency based on allelic size frequencies from different databases become smaller when the fixed-bin rather than a +/- 2.5% floating-bin approach is used. PMID:7915881

  16. Is glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency more prevalent in Carrion's disease endemic areas in Latin America?

    PubMed

    Mazulis, Fernando; Weilg, Claudia; Alva-Urcia, Carlos; Pons, Maria J; Del Valle Mendoza, Juana

    2015-12-01

    Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) is a cytoplasmic enzyme with an important function in cell oxidative damage prevention. Erythrocytes have a predisposition towards oxidized environments due to their lack of mitochondria, giving G6PD a major role in its stability. G6PD deficiency (G6PDd) is the most common enzyme deficiency in humans; it affects approximately 400 million individuals worldwide. The overall G6PDd allele frequency across malaria endemic countries is estimated to be 8%, corresponding to approximately 220 million males and 133 million females. However, there are no reports on the prevalence of G6PDd in Andean communities where bartonellosis is prevalent. PMID:26706684

  17. Prevalence of and potential influencing factors for alcohol dependence in Europe.

    PubMed

    Rehm, Jürgen; Anderson, Peter; Barry, Joe; Dimitrov, Plamen; Elekes, Zsuzsanna; Feijão, Fernanda; Frick, Ulrich; Gual, Antoni; Gmel, Gerrit; Kraus, Ludwig; Marmet, Simon; Raninen, Jonas; Rehm, Maximilien X; Scafato, Emanuele; Shield, Kevin D; Trapencieris, Marcis; Gmel, Gerhard

    2015-01-01

    Alcohol use disorders (AUDs), and alcohol dependence (AD) in particular, are prevalent and associated with a large burden of disability and mortality. The aim of this study was to estimate prevalence of AD in the European Union (EU), Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland for the year 2010, and to investigate potential influencing factors. The 1-year prevalence of AD in the EU was estimated at 3.4% among people 18-64 years of age in Europe (women 1.7%, men 5.2%), resulting in close to 11 million affected people. Taking into account all people of all ages, AD, abuse and harmful use resulted in an estimate of 23 million affected people. Prevalence of AD varied widely between European countries, and was significantly impacted by drinking cultures and social norms. Correlations with level of drinking and other drinking variables and with major known outcomes of heavy drinking, such as liver cirrhosis or injury, were moderate. These results suggest a need to rethink the definition of AUDs. PMID:25342593

  18. Prevalence of asthma in Portugal - The Portuguese National Asthma Survey

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Asthma is a frequent chronic respiratory disease in both children and adults. However, few data on asthma prevalence are available in Portugal. The Portuguese National Asthma Survey is the first nationwide study that uses standardized methods. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of current asthma in the Portuguese population and to assess the association between ‘Current asthma’ and comorbidities such as upper airways disease. Methods A cross-sectional, population-based, telephone interview survey including all municipalities of Portugal was undertaken. Participants were randomly selected to answer a questionnaire based on the Portuguese version of the GA2LEN survey. ‘Current asthma’ was defined as self-reported lifetime asthma and at least one of 3 symptoms in the last 12 months: wheezing, waking with breathlessness or having an asthma attack. Results Data were obtained for 6 003 respondents, with mean age of 38.9 (95%CI 38.2-39.6) years and 57.3% females. In the Portuguese population, the prevalence of ‘Current asthma’ was 6.8% (95%CI 6.0-7.7) and of ‘Lifetime asthma’ was 10.5% (95%CI 9.5-11.6) Using GA2LEN definition for asthma, our prevalence estimate was 7.8% (95%CI 7.0-8.8). Rhinitis had a strong association with asthma (Adjusted OR 3.87, 95%CI 2.90-5.18) and the association between upper airway diseases and asthma was stronger in patients with both rhinitis and sinusitis (Adjusted OR 13.93, 95%CI 6.60-29.44). Conclusions Current asthma affects 695 000 Portuguese, with a prevalence of 6.8%. People who reported both rhinitis and sinusitis had the highest risk of having asthma. PMID:22931550

  19. Prevalence of arthritis in India and Pakistan: a review.

    PubMed

    Akhter, Ehtisham; Bilal, Saira; Kiani, Adnan; Haque, Uzma

    2011-07-01

    Recent studies of rheumatoid arthritis worldwide suggest that prevalence of arthritis is higher in Europe and North America than in developing countries. Prevalence data for major arthritis disorders have been compiled in West for several decades, but figures from the third world are just emerging. A coordinated effort by WHO and ILAR (International League Against Rheumatism) has resulted in collecting data for countries like Philippines, China, Malaysia, Indonesia, and rural South Africa but the information about prevalence of arthritis in India and Pakistan is scarce. Since both countries, i.e., India and Pakistan, share some ethnic identity, we reviewed published literature to examine the prevalence of arthritis in these countries. Medline and Pubmed were searched for suitable articles about arthritis from 1980 and onwards. Findings from these articles were reviewed and summarized. The prevalence, clinical features, and laboratory findings of rheumatoid arthritis are compiled for both India and Pakistan. Data collected from these two countries were compared with each other, and some of the characteristics of the disease were compared with Europe and North America. It is found to be quite similar to developed countries. Additionally, juvenile rheumatoid arthritis is of different variety than reported in West. It is more of polyarticular onset type while in West pauciarticular predominates. Additionally, in systemic onset, JRA uveitis and ANA are common finding in developed countries; on the other hand, they are hardly seen in this region. Although the prevalence of arthritis in Pakistan and India is similar to Western countries, there are inherent differences (clinical features, laboratory findings) in the presentation of disease. The major strength of the study is that it is the first to pool reports to provide an estimate of the disease in the Indian subcontinent. Scarcity of data is one of the major limitations. This study helps to understand the pattern of

  20. Basic numerical capacities and prevalence of developmental dyscalculia: the Havana Survey.

    PubMed

    Reigosa-Crespo, Vivian; Valdés-Sosa, Mitchell; Butterworth, Brian; Estévez, Nancy; Rodríguez, Marisol; Santos, Elsa; Torres, Paul; Suárez, Ramón; Lage, Agustín

    2012-01-01

    The association of enumeration and number comparison capacities with arithmetical competence was examined in a large sample of children from 2nd to 9th grades. It was found that efficiency on numerical capacities predicted separately more than 25% of the variance in the individual differences on a timed arithmetical test, and this occurred for both younger and older learners. These capacities were also significant predictors of individual variations in an untimed curriculum-based math achievement test and on the teacher scores of math performance over developmental time. Based on these findings, these numerical capacities were used for estimating the prevalence and gender ratio of basic numerical deficits and developmental dyscalculia (DD) over the grade range defined above (N = 11,652 children). The extent to which DD affects the population with poor ability on calculation was also examined. For this purpose, the prevalence and gender ratio of arithmetical dysfluency (AD) were estimated in the same cohort. The estimated prevalence of DD was 3.4%, and the male:female ratio was 4:1. However, the prevalence of AD was almost 3 times as high (9.35%), and no gender differences were found (male:female ratio = 1.07:1). Basic numerical deficits affect 4.54% of school-age population and affect more boys than girls (2.4:1). The differences between the corresponding estimates were highly significant (α < .01). Based on these contrastive findings, it is concluded that DD, defined as a defective sense of numerosity, could be a distinctive disorder that affects only a portion of children with AD. PMID:21910533

  1. Prevalence of nodding syndrome--Uganda, 2012-2013.

    PubMed

    Iyengar, Preetha J; Wamala, Joseph; Ratto, Jeffrey; Blanton, Curtis; Malimbo, Mugagga; Lukwago, Luswa; Becknell, Steven; Downing, Robert; Bunga, Sudhir; Sejvar, James; Makumbi, Issa

    2014-07-18

    Nodding syndrome (NS) is a seizure disorder of unknown etiology, predominately affecting children aged 3-18 years in three sub-Saharan countries (Uganda, South Sudan, and Tanzania), with the primary feature of episodic head nodding. These episodes are thought to be one manifestation of a syndrome that includes neurologic deterioration, cognitive impairment, and additional seizure types. NS investigations have focused on clinical features, progression, and etiology; however, none have provided a population-based prevalence assessment using a standardized case definition. In March 2013, CDC and the Ugandan Ministry of Health (MOH) conducted a single-stage cluster survey to perform the first systematic assessment of prevalence of NS in Uganda using a new consensus case definition, which was modified during the course of the investigation. Based on the modified definition, the estimated number of probable NS cases in children aged 5-18 years in three northern Uganda districts was 1,687 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1,463-1,912), for a prevalence of 6.8 (CI = 5.9-7.7) probable NS cases per 1,000 children aged 5-18 years in the three districts. These findings can guide the MOH to understand and provide the health-care resources necessary to address NS in northern Uganda, and provide a basis for future studies of NS in Uganda and in other areas affected by NS. PMID:25029112

  2. Prevalence of Gestational Diabetes and Risk of Progression to Type 2 Diabetes: a Global Perspective.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Yeyi; Zhang, Cuilin

    2016-01-01

    Despite the increasing epidemic of diabetes mellitus affecting populations at different life stages, the global burden of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is not well assessed. Systematically synthesized data on global prevalence estimates of GDM are lacking, particularly among developing countries. The hyperglycemic intrauterine environment as exemplified in pregnancies complicated by GDM might not only reflect but also fuel the epidemic of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We comprehensively reviewed available data in the past decade in an attempt to estimate the contemporary global prevalence of GDM by country and region. We reviewed the risk of progression from GDM to T2DM as well. Synthesized data demonstrate wide variations in both prevalence estimates of GDM and the risk of progression from GDM to T2DM. Direct comparisons of GDM burden across countries or regions are challenging given the great heterogeneity in screening approaches, diagnostic criteria, and underlying population characteristics. In this regard, collaborative efforts to estimate global GDM prevalence would be a large but important leap forward. Such efforts may have substantial public health implications in terms of informing health policy makers and healthcare providers for disease burden and for developing more targeted and effective diabetes prevention and management strategies globally. PMID:26742932

  3. Children Affected by AIDS in Brazil: Estimates of the Number of Children at Risk of Being Orphaned and Displaced by AIDS in Brazil.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fontes, Miguel B.; Hillis, Janette; Wasek, Glenn K.

    1998-01-01

    Estimated the number of Brazilian children under 14 whose mothers are HIV-positive, living with AIDS, or dead due to AIDS. Found that of the 210,150 children, 17,600 were HIV-positive Findings underscore the urgent need for new programs to increase the longevity of persons with AIDS and to decrease the likelihood of child displacement and severe…

  4. Sero-prevalence of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in large ruminants at peri urban dairy farms near Islamabad, Pakistan

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an important, endemic, trans-boundary viral disease affecting livestock in Pakistan and associated with high economic losses. This survey was conducted to estimate sero-prevalence of FMD in large ruminants from peri-urban dairy farms near Islamabad. Serum samples were...

  5. A Systematic Review of the Prevalence of Schizophrenia

    PubMed Central

    2005-01-01

    Background Understanding the prevalence of schizophrenia has important implications for both health service planning and risk factor epidemiology. The aims of this review are to systematically identify and collate studies describing the prevalence of schizophrenia, to summarize the findings of these studies, and to explore selected factors that may influence prevalence estimates. Methods and Findings Studies with original data related to the prevalence of schizophrenia (published 1965–2002) were identified via searching electronic databases, reviewing citations, and writing to authors. These studies were divided into “core” studies, “migrant” studies, and studies based on “other special groups.” Between- and within-study filters were applied in order to identify discrete prevalence estimates. Cumulative plots of prevalence estimates were made and the distributions described when the underlying estimates were sorted according to prevalence type (point, period, lifetime, and lifetime morbid risk). Based on combined prevalence estimates, the influence of selected key variables was examined (sex, urbanicity, migrant status, country economic index, and study quality). A total of 1,721 prevalence estimates from 188 studies were identified. These estimates were drawn from 46 countries, and were based on an estimated 154,140 potentially overlapping prevalent cases. We identified 132 core studies, 15 migrant studies, and 41 studies based on other special groups. The median values per 1,000 persons (10%–90% quantiles) for the distributions for point, period, lifetime, and lifetime morbid risk were 4.6 (1.9–10.0), 3.3 (1.3–8.2), 4.0 (1.6–12.1), and 7.2 (3.1–27.1), respectively. Based on combined prevalence estimates, we found no significant difference (a) between males and females, or (b) between urban, rural, and mixed sites. The prevalence of schizophrenia in migrants was higher compared to native-born individuals: the migrant-to-native-born ratio

  6. Prevalence of Doctor-Diagnosed Arthritis at State and County Levels - United States, 2014.

    PubMed

    Barbour, Kamil E; Helmick, Charles G; Boring, Michael; Zhang, Xingyou; Lu, Hua; Holt, James B

    2016-01-01

    Doctor-diagnosed arthritis is a common chronic condition that affects approximately 52.5 million (22.7%) adults in the United States and is a leading cause of disability (1,2). The prevalence of doctor-diagnosed arthritis has been well documented at the national level (1), but little has been published at the state level and the county level, where interventions are carried out and can have their greatest effect. To estimate the prevalence of doctor-diagnosed arthritis among adults at the state and county levels, CDC analyzed data from the 2014 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). This report summarizes the results of that analysis, which found that, for all 50 states and the District of Columbia (DC) overall, the age-standardized median prevalence of doctor-diagnosed arthritis was 24% (range = 18.8%-35.5%). The age-standardized model-predicted prevalence of doctor-diagnosed arthritis varied substantially by county, with estimates ranging from 15.8% to 38.6%. The high prevalence of arthritis in all counties, and the high frequency of arthritis-attributable limitations (1) among adults with arthritis, suggests that states and counties might benefit from expanding underused, evidence-based interventions for arthritis that can reduce arthritis symptoms and improve self-management. PMID:27196398

  7. A low prevalence of cystic fibrosis in Uruguayans of mainly European descent.

    PubMed

    Cardoso, Horacio; Crispino, Beatriz; Mimbacas, Adriana; Cardoso, Manuel Enrique

    2004-01-01

    Cystic fibrosis is the most common hereditary disease in populations of European descent, with its prevalence depending on the populations and ethnic groups studied. In contrast to Europe and North America, there is little information about this disease in Latin America. Uruguay currently has a human population of 3,000,000, with a low rate of miscegenation and no remaining isolated Amerindian groups. In the present study, we estimated the prevalence of cystic fibrosis in this country based on the detection of DeltaF508 mutation carriers in 500 unrelated individuals and on the frequency of individuals homozygous for this mutation within the affected population. The latter was calculated from the frequency of the different mutations and genotypes observed in a sample of 52 previously described patients with confirmed cystic fibrosis. A theoretical estimate of the prevalence of cystic fibrosis based on anthropological data suggested a frequency of 25 affected individuals/100,000 inhabitants. However, our data indicated that the true prevalence in the population was considerably lower (6.9 cases/100,000 inhabitants). PMID:15266396

  8. Prevalence of refractive error in Europe: the European Eye Epidemiology (E(3)) Consortium.

    PubMed

    Williams, Katie M; Verhoeven, Virginie J M; Cumberland, Phillippa; Bertelsen, Geir; Wolfram, Christian; Buitendijk, Gabriëlle H S; Hofman, Albert; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Vingerling, Johannes R; Kuijpers, Robert W A M; Höhn, René; Mirshahi, Alireza; Khawaja, Anthony P; Luben, Robert N; Erke, Maja Gran; von Hanno, Therese; Mahroo, Omar; Hogg, Ruth; Gieger, Christian; Cougnard-Grégoire, Audrey; Anastasopoulos, Eleftherios; Bron, Alain; Dartigues, Jean-François; Korobelnik, Jean-François; Creuzot-Garcher, Catherine; Topouzis, Fotis; Delcourt, Cécile; Rahi, Jugnoo; Meitinger, Thomas; Fletcher, Astrid; Foster, Paul J; Pfeiffer, Norbert; Klaver, Caroline C W; Hammond, Christopher J

    2015-04-01

    To estimate the prevalence of refractive error in adults across Europe. Refractive data (mean spherical equivalent) collected between 1990 and 2013 from fifteen population-based cohort and cross-sectional studies of the European Eye Epidemiology (E(3)) Consortium were combined in a random effects meta-analysis stratified by 5-year age intervals and gender. Participants were excluded if they were identified as having had cataract surgery, retinal detachment, refractive surgery or other factors that might influence refraction. Estimates of refractive error prevalence were obtained including the following classifications: myopia ≤-0.75 diopters (D), high myopia ≤-6D, hyperopia ≥1D and astigmatism ≥1D. Meta-analysis of refractive error was performed for 61,946 individuals from fifteen studies with median age ranging from 44 to 81 and minimal ethnic variation (98 % European ancestry). The age-standardised prevalences (using the 2010 European Standard Population, limited to those ≥25 and <90 years old) were: myopia 30.6 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 30.4-30.9], high myopia 2.7 % (95 % CI 2.69-2.73), hyperopia 25.2 % (95 % CI 25.0-25.4) and astigmatism 23.9 % (95 % CI 23.7-24.1). Age-specific estimates revealed a high prevalence of myopia in younger participants [47.2 % (CI 41.8-52.5) in 25-29 years-olds]. Refractive error affects just over a half of European adults. The greatest burden of refractive error is due to myopia, with high prevalence rates in young adults. Using the 2010 European population estimates, we estimate there are 227.2 million people with myopia across Europe. PMID:25784363

  9. Temporal Uncertainty and Temporal Estimation Errors Affect Insular Activity and the Frontostriatal Indirect Pathway during Action Update: A Predictive Coding Study

    PubMed Central

    Limongi, Roberto; Pérez, Francisco J.; Modroño, Cristián; González-Mora, José L.

    2016-01-01

    Action update, substituting a prepotent behavior with a new action, allows the organism to counteract surprising environmental demands. However, action update fails when the organism is uncertain about when to release the substituting behavior, when it faces temporal uncertainty. Predictive coding states that accurate perception demands minimization of precise prediction errors. Activity of the right anterior insula (rAI) is associated with temporal uncertainty. Therefore, we hypothesize that temporal uncertainty during action update would cause the AI to decrease the sensitivity to ascending prediction errors. Moreover, action update requires response inhibition which recruits the frontostriatal indirect pathway associated with motor control. Therefore, we also hypothesize that temporal estimation errors modulate frontostriatal connections. To test these hypotheses, we collected fMRI data when participants performed an action-update paradigm within the context of temporal estimation. We fit dynamic causal models to the imaging data. Competing models comprised the inferior occipital gyrus (IOG), right supramarginal gyrus (rSMG), rAI, right presupplementary motor area (rPreSMA), and the right striatum (rSTR). The winning model showed that temporal uncertainty drove activity into the rAI and decreased insular sensitivity to ascending prediction errors, as shown by weak connectivity strength of rSMG→rAI connections. Moreover, temporal estimation errors weakened rPreSMA→rSTR connections and also modulated rAI→rSTR connections, causing the disruption of action update. Results provide information about the neurophysiological implementation of the so-called horse-race model of action control. We suggest that, contrary to what might be believed, unsuccessful action update could be a homeostatic process that represents a Bayes optimal encoding of uncertainty. PMID:27445737

  10. Temporal Uncertainty and Temporal Estimation Errors Affect Insular Activity and the Frontostriatal Indirect Pathway during Action Update: A Predictive Coding Study.

    PubMed

    Limongi, Roberto; Pérez, Francisco J; Modroño, Cristián; González-Mora, José L

    2016-01-01

    Action update, substituting a prepotent behavior with a new action, allows the organism to counteract surprising environmental demands. However, action update fails when the organism is uncertain about when to release the substituting behavior, when it faces temporal uncertainty. Predictive coding states that accurate perception demands minimization of precise prediction errors. Activity of the right anterior insula (rAI) is associated with temporal uncertainty. Therefore, we hypothesize that temporal uncertainty during action update would cause the AI to decrease the sensitivity to ascending prediction errors. Moreover, action update requires response inhibition which recruits the frontostriatal indirect pathway associated with motor control. Therefore, we also hypothesize that temporal estimation errors modulate frontostriatal connections. To test these hypotheses, we collected fMRI data when participants performed an action-update paradigm within the context of temporal estimation. We fit dynamic causal models to the imaging data. Competing models comprised the inferior occipital gyrus (IOG), right supramarginal gyrus (rSMG), rAI, right presupplementary motor area (rPreSMA), and the right striatum (rSTR). The winning model showed that temporal uncertainty drove activity into the rAI and decreased insular sensitivity to ascending prediction errors, as shown by weak connectivity strength of rSMG→rAI connections. Moreover, temporal estimation errors weakened rPreSMA→rSTR connections and also modulated rAI→rSTR connections, causing the disruption of action update. Results provide information about the neurophysiological implementation of the so-called horse-race model of action control. We suggest that, contrary to what might be believed, unsuccessful action update could be a homeostatic process that represents a Bayes optimal encoding of uncertainty. PMID:27445737

  11. Some factors affecting the use of lighter than air systems. [economic and performance estimates for dirigibles and semi-buoyant hybrid vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Havill, C. D.

    1974-01-01

    The uses of lighter-than-air vehicles are examined in the present day transportation environment. Conventional dirigibles were found to indicate an undesirable economic risk due to their low speeds and to uncertainties concerning their operational use. Semi-buoyant hybrid vehicles are suggested as an alternative which does not have many of the inferior characteristics of conventional dirigibles. Economic and performance estimates for hybrid vehicles indicate that they are competitive with other transportation systems in many applications, and unique in their ability to perform some highly desirable emergency missions.

  12. Estimating the Temporal Domain when the Discount of the Net Evaporation Term Affects the Resulting Net Precipitation Pattern in the Moisture Budget Using a 3-D Lagrangian Approach

    PubMed Central

    Castillo, Rodrigo; Nieto, Raquel; Drumond, Anita; Gimeno, Luis

    2014-01-01

    The Lagrangian FLEXPART model has been used during the last decade to detect moisture sources that affect the climate in different regions of the world. While most of these studies provided a climatological perspective on the atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle in terms of precipitation, none assessed the minimum temporal domain for which the climatological approach is valid. The methodology identifies the contribution of humidity to the moisture budget in a region by computing the changes in specific humidity along backward (or forward) trajectories of air masses over a period of ten days beforehand (afterwards), thereby allowing the calculation of monthly, seasonal and annual averages. The current study calculates as an example the climatological seasonal mean and variance of the net precipitation for regions in which precipitation exceeds evaporation (E-P<0) for the North Atlantic moisture source region using different time periods, for winter and summer from 1980 to 2000. The results show that net evaporation (E-P>0) can be discounted after when the integration of E-P is done without affecting the general net precipitation patterns when it is discounted in a monthly or longer time scale. PMID:24893002

  13. Estimating environmental conditions affecting protozoal pathogen removal in surface water wetland systems using a multi-scale, model-based approach.

    PubMed

    Daniels, Miles E; Hogan, Jennifer; Smith, Woutrina A; Oates, Stori C; Miller, Melissa A; Hardin, Dane; Shapiro, Karen; Los Huertos, Marc; Conrad, Patricia A; Dominik, Clare; Watson, Fred G R

    2014-09-15

    Cryptosporidium parvum, Giardia lamblia, and Toxoplasma gondii are waterborne protozoal pathogens distributed worldwide and empirical evidence suggests that wetlands reduce the concentrations of these pathogens under certain environmental conditions. The goal of this study was to evaluate how protozoal removal in surface water is affected by the water temperature, turbidity, salinity, and vegetation cover of wetlands in the Monterey Bay region of California. To examine how protozoal removal was affected by these environmental factors, we conducted observational experiments at three primary spatial scales: settling columns, recirculating wetland mesocosm tanks, and an experimental research wetland (Molera Wetland). Simultaneously, we developed a protozoal transport model for surface water to simulate the settling columns, the mesocosm tanks, and the Molera Wetland. With a high degree of uncertainty expected in the model predictions and field observations, we developed the model within a Bayesian statistical framework. We found protozoal removal increased when water flowed through vegetation, and with higher levels of turbidity, salinity, and temperature. Protozoal removal in surface water was maximized (~0.1 hour(-1)) when flowing through emergent vegetation at 2% cover, and with a vegetation contact time of ~30 minutes compared to the effects of temperature, salinity, and turbidity. Our studies revealed that an increase in vegetated wetland area, with water moving through vegetation, would likely improve regional water quality through the reduction of fecal protozoal pathogen loads. PMID:25016109

  14. Prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis in France: 2001

    PubMed Central

    Guillemin, F; Saraux, A; Guggenbuhl, P; Roux, C; Fardellone, P; Le Bihan, E; Cantagrel, A; Chary-Valckenaere, I; Euller-Ziegler, L; Flipo, R; Juvin, R; Behier, J; Fautrel, B; Masson, C; Coste, J

    2005-01-01

    Background: Prevalence estimates of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) vary across Europe. Recent estimates in southern European countries showed a lower prevalence than in northern countries. Objectives: To estimate the prevalence of RA in France in a multiregional representative sample in the year 2001. Methods: A two stage random sample was constituted in seven areas (20 counties) from the national telephone directory of households and by the next birthday method in each household. Patient-interviewers, member of self help groups, were trained to administer telephone surveys using a validated questionnaire for case detection of inflammatory rheumatism, and conducted the survey under quality control. All suspected cases of RA were confirmed by their rheumatologist or by clinical examination. Prevalence estimates after probability sampling correction were standardised for age and sex (national census 1999). Results: An average response rate of 64.7% (two stages combined) led to a total of 9395 respondents. Standardised prevalence was 0.31% (95% confidence interval 0.18 to 0.48) for RA, 0.51% in women and 0.09% in men, with a higher age-specific prevalence in the 65–74 year age band. A geographical analysis of county clustering showed significant variation across the country. Conclusion: This national multiregional cooperative study demonstrates the usefulness of working in association with patients of self help groups. It showed a similar prevalence of RA to that of the spondyloarthropathies estimated concomitantly during the survey. It provides a reliable basis for definition of population targets for healthcare delivery and drug treatments. PMID:15800010

  15. Estimation of the most influential factors on the laser cutting process heat affected zone (HAZ) by adaptive neuro-fuzzy technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petković, Dalibor; Nikolić, Vlastimir; Milovančević, Miloš; Lazov, Lyubomir

    2016-07-01

    Heat affected zone (HAZ) of the laser cutting process may be developed on the basis on combination of different factors. In this investigation was analyzed the HAZ forecasting based on the different laser cutting parameters. The main aim in this article was to analyze the influence of three inputs on the HAZ of the laser cutting process. The method of ANFIS (adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system) was applied to the data in order to select the most influential factors for HAZ forecasting. Three inputs are considered: laser power, cutting speed and gas pressure. According the results the cutting speed has the highest influence on the HAZ forecasting (RMSE: 0.0553). Gas pressure has the smallest influence on the HAZ forecasting (RMSE: 0.0801). The results can be used in order to simplify HAZ prediction and analyzing.

  16. Prevalence and predictors of adult hypertension in Kabul, Afghanistan

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The prevalence of hypertension is rising worldwide with an estimated one billion people now affected globally and is of near epidemic proportions in many parts of South Asia. Recent turmoil has until recently precluded estimates in Afghanistan so we sought, therefore, to establish both prevalence predictors in our population. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study of adults ≥40 years of age in Kabul from December 2011-March 2012 using a multistage sampling method. Additional data on socioeconomic and lifestyle factors were collected as well as an estimate of glycaemic control. Bivariate and multivariable analyses were undertaken to explore the association between hypertension and potential predictors. Results A total of 1183 adults (men 396, women 787) of ≥ 40years of age were assessed. The prevalence of hypertension was 46.2% (95% CI 43.5 – 49.3). Independent predictors of hypertension were found to be: age ≥50 (OR = 3.86, 95% CI: 2.86 – 5.21); illiteracy (OR = 1.90, 1.05 – 1.90); the consumption of rice >3 times per week (OR = 1.43, 1.07 – 1.91); family history of diabetes (OR = 2.20, 1.30 – 3.75); central obesity (OR = 1.67, 1.23 – 2.27); BMI ≥ 30 Kg/meter squared (OR = 2.08, 1.50 – 2.89). The consumption of chicken and fruit more than three times per week were protective with ORs respectively of 0.73 (0.55-0.97) and 0.64 (0.47 – 0.86). Conclusions Hypertension is a major public health problem in Afghan adults. We have identified a number of predictors which have potential for guiding interventions. PMID:24754870

  17. Prevalence of skin neoplasma amont the atomic bomb survivors

    SciTech Connect

    Yamada, Michiko; Kodama, Kazunori; Akahoshi, Masazumi

    1996-08-01

    About 7,000 atomic bomb (A-bomb) survivors from Hiroshima and Nagasaki who participate in the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) Adult Health Study (AHS) were examined to define the relationship between skin neoplasms and exposure to ionizing radiation. Careful clinical inspection of the skin was undertaken to detect not only skin cancer but precancerous lesions such as senile keratosis. Five cases of basal cell carcinoma, five cases of senile keratosis and one case of Bowen`s disease were confirmed histologically among 5955 A-bomb survivors for whom Dosimetry System 1986 (DS86) dose estimates are available. The relationship between the combined prevalence of skin cancer and precancerous lesions and DS86 dose was examined together with other factors that might affect skin neoplasms including occupational exposure to ultraviolet (UV) rays, age, sex and city. The prevalence of basal cell carcinoma and senile keratosis increased as the DS86 dose increased. The prevalent of skin cancer and senile keratosis among persons engaged in work involving frequent exposure to UV rays was higher than among those who were not engaged in such work. Sex and city were not significantly related to those skin diseases. Odds ratios of skin neoplasm for a 1-Gy dose, occupational exposure to UV rays and age at time of examination exposure to UV rays and age at time of examination (in 10-year increments) are 1.7, 5.9 and 1.9, respectively. 22 refs., 3 tabs.

  18. Prevalence of conduct disorder in schoolchildren of Kanke

    PubMed Central

    Sarkhel, Sujit; Sinha, Vinod Kumar; Arora, Manu; DeSarkar, Pushpal

    2006-01-01

    Background: Prevalence estimates of conduct disorder, one of the most frequently diagnosed psychiatric conditions in children, vary widely from 0.2% to 8.7%. Aim: To find out the prevalence of conduct disorder and its DSM-IV subtypes and comorbid attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in 4 schools of Kanke block among students of classes V to X. Methods: A total of 240 students, selected by stratified random sampling, were subjected to the Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia for School Age Children: Present and Lifetime Version (K-SADS-PL) screening interview. Nineteen students who qualified were subjected to conduct disorder and ADHD supplement of K-SADS-PL with additional information from parents. Results: Conduct disorder was found in 4.58%; the ratio of boys to girls being 4.5:1. Childhood onset was found in 73% and adolescent onset in 27%. Mild conduct disorder was found in 36%, moderate in 64% and severe conduct disorder in none. Comorbid ADHD was found in 36%, hyperactive-impulsive being predominant. Significant difference was found in temperament between students with and without conduct disorder with difficult temperament predominating in the former and easy in the latter (p=0.004). Lying, bullying and cruelty to animals were most frequent symptoms. Conclusion: The prevalence of conduct disorder was 4.58%, more common in boys, the majority had childhood onset, and one-third had comorbid ADHD. PMID:20844646

  19. Prevalence of xerostomia in patients attending Shorish dental speciality in Sulaimani city

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of xerostomia among dental patients and explore the possible risk factors and symptoms associated with this condition. Patient and Methods: The prevalence of xerostomia and its associations were investigated among patients (n=1132) who were visiting the department of oral medicine at shorish dental speciality in sulaimani city. The age range was between 10-79 years. 512 (45.2%) of participants were males and 620 (54.8%) were females. The data collected were age, sex, systemic diseases, medications and habit of smoking. Logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were used to investigate the association of xerostomia with age, systemic diseases and medications and Chi Square test was also used to analyze the data. Results: Prevalence of xerostomia was 16.07%. Prevalence of xerostomia was significantly higher among females (19.51%) than males (11.91%) (P=0.001). The most common diseases with the highest prevalence of xerostomia were psychological disorders (57.14%) followed by diabetes mellitus (53.84%), neurological disorders (40%), thyroid disorders (37.5%) and hypertension (36.48%). The most common medication with the highest prevalence of xerostomia was antihistamine (66.66%) followed by psychotherapeutic medications (60%), pain medications (55.88%), endocrinologic agents (51.21%), antidyslipidic agents (50%) and antihypertensive medication (38.98%). Xerostomia was significantly associated with ageing (OR: 1.02, P=0.000), systemic diseases (OR: 2.80, P=0.000) and medications (OR: 5.17, P=0.000). There was a high prevalence of reported symptoms of xerostomia and these symptoms were more prevalent among females, Prevalence of xerostomia was higher in heavy smoker patients (19.48%) than non smoker patients but not significantly (16.14%) (p= 0.44). Conclusions: There was a high prevalence of xerostomia among dental patients; xerostomia was significantly more

  20. Prevalence of prediabetes and its association with obesity among college students in Kuwait: A cross-sectional study.

    PubMed

    Ben Haider, Nour Y; Ziyab, Ali H

    2016-09-01

    This cross-sectional study sought to estimate the prevalence of prediabetes and assess its association with obesity among young adults in Kuwait; a country with a high prevalence of obesity and diabetes. The estimated prevalence of prediabetes was 6.3% (95% CI: 4.8-8.1) and obesity was associated with elevated prediabetes prevalence. PMID:27484296

  1. High Prevalence of Obesity in Ambulatory Children and Adolescents with Intellectual Disability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stewart, L.; Van de Ven, L.; Katsarou, V.; Rentziou, E.; Doran, M.; Jackson, P.; Reilly, J. J.; Wilson, D.

    2009-01-01

    Background: Obesity prevalence is unusually high among adults with intellectual disability (ID). There is limited and conflicting evidence on obesity prevalence among ambulatory children and adolescents with ID. The present study aimed to estimate obesity prevalence in this group and to compare with population prevalence. Methods: Survey of nine…

  2. A Review of the Prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorder in Asia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sun, Xiang; Allison, Carrie

    2010-01-01

    Electronic databases and bibliographies were searched for English language articles on the prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorder in Asia over time to estimate prevalence. The overall reported prevalence of ASD in recent studies was higher than the previously reported in Asia. The average prevalence of ASD before 1980 was around 1.9/10,000 while…

  3. Prevalence of chronic pain in the UK: a systematic review and meta-analysis of population studies

    PubMed Central

    Fayaz, A; Croft, P; Langford, R M; Donaldson, L J; Jones, G T

    2016-01-01

    Objectives There is little consensus regarding the burden of pain in the UK. The purpose of this review was to synthesise existing data on the prevalence of various chronic pain phenotypes in order to produce accurate and contemporary national estimates. Design Major electronic databases were searched for articles published after 1990, reporting population-based prevalence estimates of chronic pain (pain lasting >3 months), chronic widespread pain, fibromyalgia and chronic neuropathic pain. Pooled prevalence estimates were calculated for chronic pain and chronic widespread pain. Results Of the 1737 articles generated through our searches, 19 studies matched our inclusion criteria, presenting data from 139 933 adult residents of the UK. The prevalence of chronic pain, derived from 7 studies, ranged from 35.0% to 51.3% (pooled estimate 43.5%, 95% CIs 38.4% to 48.6%). The prevalence of moderate-severely disabling chronic pain (Von Korff grades III/IV), based on 4 studies, ranged from 10.4% to 14.3%. 12 studies stratified chronic pain prevalence by age group, demonstrating a trend towards increasing prevalence with increasing age from 14.3% in 18–25 years old, to 62% in the over 75 age group, although the prevalence of chronic pain in young people (18–39 years old) may be as high as 30%. Reported prevalence estimates were summarised for chronic widespread pain (pooled estimate 14.2%, 95% CI 12.3% to 16.1%; 5 studies), chronic neuropathic pain (8.2% to 8.9%; 2 studies) and fibromyalgia (5.4%; 1 study). Chronic pain was more common in female than male participants, across all measured phenotypes. Conclusions Chronic pain affects between one-third and one-half of the population of the UK, corresponding to just under 28 million adults, based on data from the best available published studies. This figure is likely to increase further in line with an ageing population. PMID:27324708

  4. Prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis in low– and middle–income countries: A systematic review and analysis

    PubMed Central

    Rudan, Igor; Sidhu, Simrita; Papana, Angeliki; Meng, Shi–Jiao; Xin–Wei, Yu; Wang, Wei; Campbell–Page, Ruth M.; Demaio, Alessandro Rhyll; Nair, Harish; Sridhar, Devi; Theodoratou, Evropi; Dowman, Ben; Adeloye, Davies; Majeed, Azeem; Car, Josip; Campbell, Harry; Wang, Wei; Chan, Kit Yee

    2015-01-01

    Background Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is an autoimmune disorder that affects the small joints of the body. It is one of the leading causes of chronic morbidity in high–income countries, but little is known about the burden of this disease in low– and middle–income countries (LMIC). Methods The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of RA in six of the World Health Organization's (WHO) regions that harbour LMIC by identifying all relevant studies in those regions. To accomplish this aim various bibliographic databases were searched: PubMed, EMBASE, Global Health, LILACS and the Chinese databases CNKI and WanFang. Studies were selected based on pre–defined inclusion criteria, including a definition of RA based on the 1987 revision of the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) definition. Results Meta–estimates of regional RA prevalence rates for countries of low or middle income were 0.40% (95% CI: 0.23–0.57%) for Southeast Asian, 0.37% (95% CI: 0.23–0.51%) for Eastern Mediterranean, 0.62% (95% CI: 0.47–0.77%) for European, 1.25% (95% CI: 0.64–1.86%) for American and 0.42% (95% CI: 0.30–0.53%) for Western Pacific regions. A formal meta–analysis could not be performed for the sub–Saharan African region due to limited data. Male prevalence of RA in LMIC was 0.16% (95% CI: 0.11–0.20%) while the prevalence in women reached 0.75% (95% CI: 0.60–0.90%). This difference between males and females was statistically significant (P < 0.0001). The prevalence of RA did not differ significantly between urban and rural settings (P = 0.353). These prevalence estimates represent 2.60 (95% CI: 1.85–3.34%) million male sufferers and 12.21 (95% CI: 9.78–14.67%) million female sufferers in LMIC in the year 2000, and 3.16 (95% CI: 2.25–4.05%) million affected males and 14.87 (95% CI: 11.91–17.86%) million affected females in LMIC in the year 2010. Conclusion Given that majority of the world’s population resides in LMIC, the number of

  5. Prevalence of Disorders Recorded in Dogs Attending Primary-Care Veterinary Practices in England

    PubMed Central

    O′Neill, Dan G.; Church, David B.; McGreevy, Paul D.; Thomson, Peter C.; Brodbelt, Dave C.

    2014-01-01

    Purebred dog health is thought to be compromised by an increasing occurence of inherited diseases but inadequate prevalence data on common disorders have hampered efforts to prioritise health reforms. Analysis of primary veterinary practice clinical data has been proposed for reliable estimation of disorder prevalence in dogs. Electronic patient record (EPR) data were collected on 148,741 dogs attending 93 clinics across central and south-eastern England. Analysis in detail of a random sample of EPRs relating to 3,884 dogs from 89 clinics identified the most frequently recorded disorders as otitis externa (prevalence 10.2%, 95% CI: 9.1–11.3), periodontal disease (9.3%, 95% CI: 8.3–10.3) and anal sac impaction (7.1%, 95% CI: 6.1–8.1). Using syndromic classification, the most prevalent body location affected was the head-and-neck (32.8%, 95% CI: 30.7–34.9), the most prevalent organ system affected was the integument (36.3%, 95% CI: 33.9–38.6) and the most prevalent pathophysiologic process diagnosed was inflammation (32.1%, 95% CI: 29.8–34.3). Among the twenty most-frequently recorded disorders, purebred dogs had a significantly higher prevalence compared with crossbreds for three: otitis externa (P = 0.001), obesity (P = 0.006) and skin mass lesion (P = 0.033), and popular breeds differed significantly from each other in their prevalence for five: periodontal disease (P = 0.002), overgrown nails (P = 0.004), degenerative joint disease (P = 0.005), obesity (P = 0.001) and lipoma (P = 0.003). These results fill a crucial data gap in disorder prevalence information and assist with disorder prioritisation. The results suggest that, for maximal impact, breeding reforms should target commonly-diagnosed complex disorders that are amenable to genetic improvement and should place special focus on at-risk breeds. Future studies evaluating disorder severity and duration will augment the usefulness of the disorder prevalence

  6. Prevalence of disorders recorded in dogs attending primary-care veterinary practices in England.

    PubMed

    O Neill, Dan G; Church, David B; McGreevy, Paul D; Thomson, Peter C; Brodbelt, Dave C

    2014-01-01

    Purebred dog health is thought to be compromised by an increasing occurence of inherited diseases but inadequate prevalence data on common disorders have hampered efforts to prioritise health reforms. Analysis of primary veterinary practice clinical data has been proposed for reliable estimation of disorder prevalence in dogs. Electronic patient record (EPR) data were collected on 148,741 dogs attending 93 clinics across central and south-eastern England. Analysis in detail of a random sample of EPRs relating to 3,884 dogs from 89 clinics identified the most frequently recorded disorders as otitis externa (prevalence 10.2%, 95% CI: 9.1-11.3), periodontal disease (9.3%, 95% CI: 8.3-10.3) and anal sac impaction (7.1%, 95% CI: 6.1-8.1). Using syndromic classification, the most prevalent body location affected was the head-and-neck (32.8%, 95% CI: 30.7-34.9), the most prevalent organ system affected was the integument (36.3%, 95% CI: 33.9-38.6) and the most prevalent pathophysiologic process diagnosed was inflammation (32.1%, 95% CI: 29.8-34.3). Among the twenty most-frequently recorded disorders, purebred dogs had a significantly higher prevalence compared with crossbreds for three: otitis externa (P = 0.001), obesity (P = 0.006) and skin mass lesion (P = 0.033), and popular breeds differed significantly from each other in their prevalence for five: periodontal disease (P = 0.002), overgrown nails (P = 0.004), degenerative joint disease (P = 0.005), obesity (P = 0.001) and lipoma (P = 0.003). These results fill a crucial data gap in disorder prevalence information and assist with disorder prioritisation. The results suggest that, for maximal impact, breeding reforms should target commonly-diagnosed complex disorders that are amenable to genetic improvement and should place special focus on at-risk breeds. Future studies evaluating disorder severity and duration will augment the usefulness of the disorder prevalence information reported

  7. Family History of Sudden Cardiac Death of the Young: Prevalence and Associated Factors

    PubMed Central

    White, Michelle J.; Duquette, Debra; Bach, Janice; Rafferty, Ann P.; Fussman, Chris; Sharangpani, Ruta; Russell, Mark W.

    2015-01-01

    Sudden cardiac death of the young (SCDY) is a devastating event for families and communities. Family history is a significant risk factor for this potentially preventable cause of death, however a complete and detailed family history is not commonly obtained during routine health maintenance visits. To estimate the proportion of adults with a family history of SCDY, the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS) Genomics Program included two questions within the 2007 Michigan Behavioral Risk Factor Survey (MiBRFS). Prevalence estimates and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. Among adults in Michigan, 6.3% reported a family history of SCDY, with a greater prevalence among blacks, those with lower household income, and those with less education. Among those reporting a family history of SCDY, 42.3% had at least one first-degree relative and 26.2% had multiple affected family members. This is the first study to demonstrate the prevalence of family history of SCDY while also highlighting key sociodemographic characteristics associated with increased prevalence. These findings should guide evidence-based interventions to reach those at greatest risk.

  8. Prevalence and risk factors of urinary incontinence in Chinese women: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Ge, Jing; Yang, Peng; Zhang, Yi; Li, Xinyu; Wang, Quanyi; Lu, Yongxian

    2015-03-01

    To estimate the current prevalence rate of urinary incontinence (UI) and to identify risk factors in Chinese women, we conducted a population-based survey in 3058 women in Beijing, China, in 2009. The prevalence rate of UI was estimated to be 22.1%, with stress UI (12.9%) being more prevalent than urgency UI (1.7%) and mixed UI (7.5%). The prevalence rates of UI, urgency UI, and mixed UI increased with age, with the highest recorded in participants aged ≥70 years. However, stress UI was most commonly seen in participants aged 50 to 69 years. Risk factors for UI included aging, lower education background, older age of menarche, menstrual disorder, pregnancy history, episiotomy, chronic pelvic pain, gynecological disease, other chronic diseases, constipation, fecal incontinence, lower daily water intake, and frequency of high protein intake. UI is a common disorder in Chinese women, and many risk factors are able to affect the development of UI. PMID:22186396

  9. Prevalence of anaemia, syphilis and hepatitis B in pregnant women in Nausori, Fiji

    PubMed Central

    Tayler-Smith, K.; Khogali, M.; Marks, G. B.

    2013-01-01

    Setting: An antenatal clinic serving a population of 47 604 in Nausori, Fiji. Objective: 1) To estimate the prevalence of anaemia, syphilis and hepatitis B in pregnant women attending their first antenatal visit; and 2) to estimate the uptake of treatment for syphilis and for the prevention of hepatitis B transmission in affected individuals. Design: Retrospective review of the clinic register and patient records for the year 2011. Results: The prevalence of anaemia, hepatitis B and syphilis were respectively 22%, 2% and 5%. Among women with syphilis, 78% of those for whom data were available received a complete course of three doses of penicillin during their pregnancy, and 83% of babies born to women with hepatitis B received hepatitis B immunoglobulin. Conclusion: The prevalence of anaemia in pregnant women has declined but remains high, and further research is required to identify the major causes of this condition in Fiji. The prevalence of syphilis has remained static, while hepatitis B has decreased over the past decade. There are some gaps in the implementation of effective interventions to manage these conditions in pregnant women. PMID:26393000

  10. Understanding the relationship between prevalence of microfilariae and antigenaemia using a model of lymphatic filariasis infection

    PubMed Central

    Irvine, Michael A.; Njenga, Sammy M.; Gunawardena, Shamini; Njeri Wamae, Claire; Cano, Jorge; Brooker, Simon J.; Deirdre Hollingsworth, T.

    2016-01-01

    Background Lymphatic filariasis is a debilitating neglected tropical disease that affects impoverished communities. Rapid diagnostic tests of antigenaemia are a practical alternative to parasitological tests of microfilaraemia for mapping and surveillance. However the relationship between these two methods of measuring burden has previously been difficult to interpret. Methods A statistical model of the distribution of worm burden and microfilariae (mf) and resulting antigenaemic and mf prevalence was developed and fitted to surveys of two contrasting sentinel sites undergoing interventions. The fitted model was then used to explore the relationship in various pre- and post-intervention scenarios. Results The model had good quantitative agreement with the data and provided estimates of the reduction in mf output due to treatment. When extrapolating the results to a range of prevalences there was good qualitative agreement with published data. Conclusions The observed relationship between antigenamic and mf prevalence is a natural consequence of the relationship between prevalence and intensity of adult worms and mf production. The method described here allows the estimation of key epidemiological parameters and consequently gives insight into the efficacy of an intervention programme. PMID:26822604

  11. Developmental dyscalculia: prevalence and prognosis.

    PubMed

    Shalev, R S; Auerbach, J; Manor, O; Gross-Tsur, V

    2000-01-01

    The prevalence of developmental dyscalculia (DC) in the school population ranges from 3-6 %, a frequency similar to that of developmental dyslexia and ADHD. These studies fulfilled the criteria for an adequate prevalence study, i.e., were population based, using standardized measures to evaluate arithmetic function. Although the variation in prevalence is within a narrow range, the differences are probably due to which definition of dyscalculia was used, the age the diagnosis was made and the instrument chosen to test for DC. The relative predominance of girls with DC may reflect a greater vulnerability to environmental influences alone or in addition to a biological predisposition. DC is not only encountered as a specific learning disability but also in diverse neurological disorders, examples of which include ADHD, developmental language disorder, epilepsy, treated phenylketonuria and Fragile X syndrome. Although the long-term prognosis of DC is as yet unknown, current data indicate that DC is a stable learning disability persisting, at least for the short term, in about half of affected children. The long-term consequences of DC and its impact on education, employment and psychological well-being have yet to be determined. PMID:11138905

  12. Prevalence and Consequences of the Proximal Junctional Kyphosis After Spinal Deformity Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Yan, Chunda; Li, Yong; Yu, Zhange

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence and patient outcomes of proximal junctional kyphosis (PJK) in pediatric patients and adolescents who received surgical interventions for the treatment of a spinal deformity. Literature was searched in electronic databases, and studies were selected by following précised eligibility criteria. Percent prevalence values of the PJK in individual studies were pooled to achieve a weighted effect size under the random effects model. Subgroup and meta-regression analyses were performed to appraise the factors affecting PJK prevalence. Twenty-six studies (2024 patients) were included in this meta-analysis. Average age of the patients was 13.8 ± 2.75 years of which 32 ± 20 % were males. Average follow-up was 51.6 ± 38.8 (range 17 ± 13 to 218 ± 60) months. Overall, the percent prevalence of PJK (95% confidence interval) was 11.02 (10.5, 11.5) %; P < 0.00001 which was inversely associated with age (meta-regression coefficient: –1.607 [–2.86, –0.36]; 0.014). Revision surgery rate in the patients with PJK was 10%. The prevalence of PJK was positively associated with the proximal junctional angle at last follow-up (coefficient: 2.248; P = 0.012) and the change in the proximal junctional angle from surgery to last follow-up (coefficient: 2.139; P = 0.014) but not with preoperative proximal junctional angle. The prevalence of PJK in the children and adolescent patients is 11%. About 10% of those affected require revision surgery. PMID:27196453

  13. Obesity Prevalence Maps

    MedlinePlus

    ... Physical Activity Overweight & Obesity Healthy Weight Breastfeeding Micronutrient Malnutrition State and Local Programs Adult Obesity Prevalence Maps ... Physical Activity Overweight & Obesity Healthy Weight Breastfeeding Micronutrient Malnutrition State and Local Programs File Formats Help: How ...

  14. The Prevalence of Sexual Abuse among Adolescents in School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Saewyc, Elizabeth M.; Pettingell, Sandra; Magee, Lara L.

    2003-01-01

    Sexual abuse is a profound stressor that complicates the development and health of adolescents, yet its prevalence has been difficult to estimate among adolescents in school populations. This study explored the prevalence of both incest and nonfamily abuse in 2 cohorts of adolescents in Minnesota in the 1990s (1992: N = 77,374; 1998: N = 81,247).…

  15. Prevalence of Titin Truncating Variants in General Population

    PubMed Central

    Akinrinade, Oyediran; Koskenvuo, Juha W.; Alastalo, Tero-Pekka

    2015-01-01

    Background Truncating titin (TTN) mutations, especially in A-band region, represent the most common cause of dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). Clinical interpretation of these variants can be challenging, as these variants are also present in reference populations. We carried out systematic analyses of TTN truncating variants (TTNtv) in publicly available reference populations, including, for the first time, data from Exome Aggregation Consortium (ExAC). The goal was to establish more accurate estimate of prevalence of different TTNtv to allow better clinical interpretation of these findings. Methods and Results Using data from 1000 Genomes Project, Exome Sequencing Project (ESP) and ExAC, we estimated the prevalence of TTNtv in the population. In the three population datasets, 52–54% of TTNtv were not affecting all TTN transcripts. The frequency of truncations affecting all transcripts in ExAC was 0.36% (0.32% - 0.41%, 95% CI) and 0.19% (0.16% - 0.23%, 95% CI) for those affecting the A-band. In the A-band region, the prevalences of frameshift, nonsense and essential splice site variants were 0.057%, 0.090%, and 0.047% respectively. Cga/Tga (arginine/nonsense–R/*) transitional change at CpG mutation hotspots was the most frequent type of TTN nonsense mutation accounting for 91.3% (21/23) of arginine residue nonsense mutation (R/*) at TTN A-band region. Non-essential splice-site variants had significantly lower proportion of private variants and higher proportion of low-frequency variants compared to essential splice-site variants (P = 0.01; P = 5.1 X 10−4, respectively). Conclusion A-band TTNtv are more rare in the general population than previously reported. Based on this analysis, one in 500 carries a truncation in TTN A-band suggesting the penetrance of these potentially harmful variants is still poorly understood, and some of these variants do not manifest as autosomal dominant DCM. This calls for caution when interpreting TTNtv in individuals and families

  16. Incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Europe: a systematic review

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the most common cause of neurological disability in young adults worldwide and approximately half of those affected are in Europe. The assessment of differential incidence and prevalence across populations can reveal spatial, temporal and demographic patterns which are important for identifying genetic and environmental factors contributing to MS. However, study methodologies vary and the quality of the methods can influence the estimates. This study aimed to systematically review European studies of incidence and prevalence of MS and to provide a quantitative assessment of their methodological quality. Methods A comprehensive literature search was performed to obtain all original population-based studies of MS incidence and prevalence in European populations conducted and published between January 1985 and January 2011. Only peer-reviewed full-text articles published in English or French were included. All abstracts were screened for eligibility and two trained reviewers abstracted the data and graded the quality of each study using a tool specifically designed for this study. Results There were 123 studies that met the inclusion criteria. The study estimates were highly heterogeneous, even within regions or countries. Quality was generally higher in the more recent studies, which also tended to use current diagnostic criteria. Prevalence and incidence estimates tended to be higher in the more recent studies and were higher in the Nordic countries and in northern regions of the British Isles. With rare exceptions, prevalence and incidence estimates were higher in women with ratios as high as 3:1. Few studies examined ethnicity. Epidemiological data at the national level was uncommon and there were marked geographical disparities in available data, with large areas of Europe unrepresented and other regions well-represented in the literature. Only 37% of the studies provided standardized estimates. Conclusions Despite the

  17. The Affective Experiences of Children during Mathematics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prawat, Richard S.; Anderson, Ariel L. H.

    1994-01-01

    Stimulated recall was used to examine the affective experiences of (n=32) fourth and fifth graders engaged in mathematics seatwork. Students' affect was found to be primarily negative and achievement related. Anger was the most prevalent affective response. (42 references) (MKR)

  18. Drugs affecting the eye.

    PubMed

    Taylor, F

    1985-08-01

    cataract suspected to be induced by allopurinol; numerous additional cases have been reported to the registry since. Phenothiazine, with an estimated 3% incidence of side effects, appears to be safer than other antipsychotic drugs, but the rate of ocular effects increases with the duration of therapy. Thioridazine and chlorpromazine are known to cause lens deposits and pigmentary retinopathy. There is a significantly high prevalence of thrombophlebitis and pseudotumor cerebri among women who use OCs and thrombotic retinal vascular disease, such as retinal vein occulsion, might be linked with them. It also is probable that, because of altered hydration of the cornea, there is a decreased tolerance to contact lenses. PMID:2864912

  19. Minimum prevalence of chromosome 22q11 deletions

    SciTech Connect

    Wilson, D.I.; Cross, I.E.; Burn, J.

    1994-09-01

    Submicroscopic deletions from within chromosome 22q11 are associated with DiGeorge (DGS), velocardiofacial (VCFS) and conotruncal anomaly syndromes and isolated congenital heart defects. In 1993 our pediatric cardiologists clinically referred all children in whom a chromosome 22q11 deletion was suspected for fluorescent in situ hybridization studies using probes from the DGS critical region. 10 affected individuals have been identified to date from the children born in 1993 in the Northern Region served exclusively by our center. A further case, the subsequent pregnancy in one of these families was affected and terminated on the basis of a major heart malformation. In the years 1988-92, for which we have complete ascertainment, there were 1009 heart defects among 191,700 births (mean 202 per annum). Thus we estimate that chromosome 22q11 deletions were the cause of at least 5% of congenital heart disease. As not all children with chromosome 22q11 deletions have a heart defect, this gives an estimated minimum prevalence of 1/4000 live births.

  20. Prevalence of diabetes and impaired fasting glucose in Peru: report from PERUDIAB, a national urban population-based longitudinal study

    PubMed Central

    Seclen, Segundo N; Rosas, Moises E; Arias, Arturo J; Huayta, Ernesto; Medina, Cecilia A

    2015-01-01

    Objectives We aimed to estimate the prevalences of diabetes and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) in a national sample in Peru and assess the relationships with selected sociodemographic variables. Methods We estimated prevalence in PERUDIAB study participants, a nationwide, stratified urban and suburban population selected by random cluster sampling. Between 2010 and 2012, questionnaires were completed and blood tests obtained from 1677 adults ≥25 years of age. Known diabetes was defined as participants having been told so by a doctor or nurse and/or receiving insulin or oral antidiabetic agents. Newly diagnosed diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose ≥126 mg/dL determined during the study and without a previous diabetes diagnosis. IFG was defined as fasting plasma glucose of 100–125 mg/dL. Results The estimated national prevalence of diabetes was 7.0% (95% CI 5.3% to 8.7%) and it was 8.4% (95% CI 5.6% to 11.3%) in metropolitan Lima. No gender differences were detected. Known and newly diagnosed diabetes prevalences were estimated as 4.2% and 2.8%, respectively. A logistic regression response surface model showed a complex trend for an increased prevalence of diabetes in middle-aged individuals and in those with no formal education. Diabetes prevalence was higher in coastal (8.2%) than in highlands (4.5%; p=0.03), and jungle (3.5%; p<0.02) regions. The estimated national prevalence of IFG was 22.4%, higher in males than in females (28.3% vs 19.1%; p<0.001), and higher in coastal (26.4%) than in highlands (17.4%; p=0.03), but not jungle regions (14.9%; p=0.07). Conclusions This study confirms diabetes as an important public health problem, especially for middle-aged individuals and those with no formal education. 40% of the affected individuals were undiagnosed. The elevated prevalence of IFG shows that nearly a quarter of the adult population of Peru has an increased risk of diabetes. PMID:26512325

  1. Prevalence of Diabetes in U.S. Youth in 2009: The SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study

    PubMed Central

    Pettitt, David J.; Talton, Jennifer; Dabelea, Dana; Divers, Jasmin; Imperatore, Giuseppina; Lawrence, Jean M.; Liese, Angela D.; Linder, Barbara; Mayer-Davis, Elizabeth J.; Pihoker, Catherine; Saydah, Sharon H.; Standiford, Debra A.; Hamman, Richard F.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To estimate the prevalence of diabetes in U.S. youth aged <20 years in 2009 and to estimate the total number of youth with diabetes in the U.S. by age, race/ethnicity, and diabetes type. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS To address one of its primary aims, the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study identified youth aged <20 years on 31 December 2009 with physician-diagnosed diabetes in selected areas of Colorado, Ohio, South Carolina, and Washington, among health plan members of Kaiser Permanente Southern California and among American Indians living on reservations in Arizona and New Mexico. Diabetes was classified as type 1, type 2, or other. Race/ethnicity was by self-report. RESULTS From a population of 3,458,974 youth aged <20 years, 7,695 youth with diabetes were identified (2.22/1,000): 6,668 with type 1 diabetes (1.93/1,000), 837 with type 2 diabetes (0.24/1,000), and 190 (0.05/1,000) with other diabetes types. Prevalence increased with age, was slightly higher in females than males, and was most prevalent in non-Hispanic White and least prevalent in Asian/Pacific Islanders, with Native American and black youth having the highest prevalence of type 2 diabetes. An estimated 191,986 U.S. youth aged <20 years have diabetes; 166,984 type 1 diabetes, 20,262 type 2 diabetes, and 4,740 other types. CONCLUSIONS Diabetes, one of the leading chronic diseases in childhood, affects >190,000 (1 of 433) youth aged <20 years in the U.S., with racial and ethnic disparities seen in diabetes prevalence, overall and by diabetes type. PMID:24041677

  2. Prevalence of diabetes in Pakistan.

    PubMed

    Shera, A S; Jawad, F; Maqsood, A

    2007-05-01

    The prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and the contributing risk factors were estimated by performing a cross-sectional survey conducted earlier in the rural and urban areas of all the four provinces of Pakistan. The statistical analysis was performed from the obtained results by using SPSS version 12.0. The total number of subjects examined were 5433 which included 1893 males (1208 in rural and 685 in urban areas) and 3540 females (2243 in rural and 1297 in urban areas). The prevalence of diabetes in the urban versus the rural areas was 6.0% in men and 3.5% in women against 6.9% in men and 2.5% in women, respectively. Newly diagnosed diabetes was 5.1% in men and 6.8% in women in urban areas and 5.0% in men and 4.8% in women in rural areas. IGT in the urban versus the rural areas was 6.3% in men and 14.2% in women against 6.9% in men and 10.9% in women, respectively. Overall glucose intolerance (DM+IGT) was 22.04% in urban and 17.15% in rural areas. The major risk factors identified were age, positive family history and obesity especially central obesity. PMID:17005289

  3. Climate is associated with prevalence and severity of radiographic hand osteoarthritis.

    PubMed

    Kalichman, L; Korosteshevsky, M; Batsevich, V; Kobyliansky, E

    2011-08-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate whether geographic location and climatic factors are associated with prevalence and severity of radiographic hand osteoarthritis (OA) in several samples of the same ethnicity. The total sample included 2079 ethnic Russians (900 males and 1179 females), belonging to 7 samples from different geographic locations in the former USSR. Places of residence were characterized by latitude, longitude, altitude and climatic parameters (mean temperatures, humidity, and daylight duration of January and July). Radiographs of the left hand were obtained from each individual. Osteoarthritis (OA) was evaluated in 14 hand joints according to Kellgren and Lawrence's grading system. OA was characterized by the presence of at least one affected joint and its severity by the number of affected joints (NAJ). Statistical analysis included prevalence estimation, polynomial and logistic regressions, ANOVA and correlation analyses. Prevalence of hand OA and NAJ were significantly associated with latitude and altitude and with most climatic parameters (except the inter-seasonal temperature amplitude and the mean atmospheric pressure of January and July). The highest correlations of hand OA prevalence were found with altitude (r=0.29, p<0.001), annual precipitation (r=-0.26, p<0.001) and the mean temperatures of July (r=0.26, p<0.001). The highest correlations of NAJ were found with altitude (r=0.51, p<0.001), mean humidity in January (r=-0.44, p<0.001) and the mean day duration in January (r=0.0.37, p<0.001). The present study demonstrates that the differences in prevalence and severity of radiographic hand OA among Russian samples are most likely dependent on climatic conditions in the place of residence. PMID:21565342

  4. Suicide and Firearm Prevalence: Are Youth Disproportionately Affected?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Birckmayer, Johanna; Hemenway, David

    2001-01-01

    The effect of firearm availability on suicide may differ among age groups. Regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between suicide rates and household firearm ownership for four age groups in the nine census regions from 1979 to 1994, adjusting for regional divorce rates, education, unemployment, and urbanity. (BF)

  5. High fructose corn syrup and diabetes prevalence: a global perspective.

    PubMed

    Goran, Michael I; Ulijaszek, Stanley J; Ventura, Emily E

    2013-01-01

    The overall aim of this study was to evaluate, from a global and ecological perspective, the relationships between availability of high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) and prevalence of type 2 diabetes. Using published resources, country-level estimates (n =43 countries) were obtained for: total sugar, HFCS and total calorie availability, obesity, two separate prevalence estimates for diabetes, prevalence estimate for impaired glucose tolerance and fasting plasma glucose. Pearson's correlations and partial correlations were conducted in order to explore associations between dietary availability and obesity and diabetes prevalence. Diabetes prevalence was 20% higher in countries with higher availability of HFCS compared to countries with low availability, and these differences were retained or strengthened after adjusting for country-level estimates of body mass index (BMI), population and gross domestic product (adjusted diabetes prevalence=8.0 vs. 6.7%, p=0.03; fasting plasma glucose=5.34 vs. 5.22 mmol/L, p=0.03) despite similarities in obesity and total sugar and calorie availability. These results suggest that countries with higher availability of HFCS have a higher prevalence of type 2 diabetes independent of obesity. PMID:23181629

  6. Multimorbidity prevalence and pattern in Indonesian adults: an exploratory study using national survey data

    PubMed Central

    Hussain, Mohammad Akhtar; Huxley, Rachel R; Al Mamun, Abdullah

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To estimate the prevalence and pattern of multimorbidity in the Indonesian adult population. Design Cross-sectional study. Setting Community-based survey. The sampling frame was based on households in 13 of the 27 Indonesian provinces, representing about 83% of the Indonesian population. Participants 9438 Indonesian adults aged 40 years and above. Main outcome measures Prevalence and pattern of multimorbidity by age, gender and socioeconomic status. Results The mean number of morbidities in the sample was 1.27 (SE±0.01). The overall age and sex standardised prevalence of multimorbidity was 35.7% (34.8% to 36.7%), with women having significantly higher prevalence of multimorbidity than men (41.5% vs 29.5%; p<0.001). Of those with multimorbidity, 64.6% (62.8% to 66.3%) were aged less than 60 years. Prevalence of multimorbidity was positively associated with age (p for trend <0.001) and affluence (p for trend <0.001) and significantly greater in women at all ages compared with men. For each 5-year increment in age there was an approximate 20% greater risk of multimorbidity in both sexes (18% in women 95% CI 1.14 to 1.22 and 22% in men 95% CI 1.18 to 1.26). Increasing age, female gender, non-Javanese ethnicity, and high per-capital expenditure were all significantly associated with higher odds of multimorbidity. The combination of hypertension with cardiac diseases, hypercholesterolemia, arthritis, and uric acid/gout were the most commonly occurring disease pairs in both sexes. Conclusions More than one-third of the Indonesian adult population are living with multimorbidity with women and the more wealthy being particularly affected. Of especial concern was the high prevalence of multimorbidity among younger individuals. Hypertension was the most frequently occurring condition common to most individuals with multimorbidity. PMID:26656028

  7. The prevalence of audiometric notches in adolescents in Germany: The Ohrkan-study.

    PubMed

    Twardella, Dorothee; Perez-Alvarez, Carmelo; Steffens, Thomas; Bolte, Gabriele; Fromme, Hermann; Verdugo-Raab, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    Although there is concern about increasing hearing loss in adolescents caused by leisure noise exposure, prevalence data are scarce. In an US study, about 16-17% of adolescents were affected by audiometric notches. To estimate the prevalence of audiometric notches in adolescents in Germany, baseline data of the cohort study Ohrkan, recruitment during the school years 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 were analyzed. All students in grade 9 visiting any school in the city of Regensburg were eligible for participation. Data was collected via standardized questionnaires from students and their parents. In addition, students were asked to visit the University Clinics of Regensburg for ear examination including a tympanogram and the determination of hearing thresholds in air conduction audiometry. The prevalence of audiometric notches was determined in students with normal tympanogram in both ears and complete audiometry data. Audiometric notches were defined according to criteria used to analyse US data. Overall, 2149 students (1158 girls, 991 boys mainly aged 15-16 years) of the 3846 eligible adolescents (56%) participated. Among the 1843 adolescents with complete audiometry and tympanometry data, the prevalence of audiometric notches was 2.4% (95% confidence interval 1.7-3.1%). We could not confirm the high prevalence of audiometric notches as reported in National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys for adolescents in the US. Differences in prevalence might be at least partly due to methodical differences in audiometry. Even if empirical evidence is presently ambiguous, it is reasonable to educate young people about the potential risks of high leisure noise exposure. PMID:24231420

  8. Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Post Iraq and Afghanistan: Prevalence Among Military Subgroups

    PubMed Central

    Hines, Lindsey A; Sundin, Josefin; Rona, Roberto J; FFPH; Wessely, Simon; FMedSci; Fear, Nicola T

    2014-01-01

    A large body of research has been produced in recent years investigating posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among military personnel following deployment to Iraq and Afghanistan, resulting in apparent differences in PTSD prevalence. We compare prevalence estimates for current PTSD between military subgroups, providing insight into how groups may be differentially affected by deployment. Systematic literature searches using the terms PTSD, stress disorder, and acute stress, combined with terms relating to military personnel, identified 49 relevant papers. Studies with a sample size of less than 100 and studies based on data for treatment seeking or injured populations were excluded. Studies were categorized according to theatre of deployment (Iraq or Afghanistan), combat and noncombat deployed samples, sex, enlistment type (regular or reserve and [or] National Guard), and service branch (for example, army, navy, and air force). Meta-analysis was used to assess PTSD prevalence across subgroups. There was large variability in PTSD prevalence between studies, but, regardless of heterogeneity, prevalence rates of PTSD were higher among studies of Iraq-deployed personnel (12.9%; 95% CI 11.3% to 14.4%), compared with personnel deployed to Afghanistan (7.1%; 95% CI 4.6% to 9.6%), combat deployed personnel, and personnel serving in the Canadian, US, or UK army or the navy or marines (12.4%; 95% CI 10.9% to 13.4%), compared with the other services (4.9%; 95% CI 1.4% to 8.4%). Contrary to findings from within-study comparisons, we did not find a difference in PTSD prevalence for regular active-duty and reserve or National Guard personnel. Categorizing studies according to deployment location and branch of service identified differences among subgroups that provide further support for factors underlying the development of PTSD. PMID:25569079

  9. Posttraumatic stress disorder post Iraq and Afghanistan: prevalence among military subgroups.

    PubMed

    Hines, Lindsey A; Sundin, Josefin; Rona, Roberto J; Wessely, Simon; Fear, Nicola T

    2014-09-01

    A large body of research has been produced in recent years investigating posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among military personnel following deployment to Iraq and Afghanistan, resulting in apparent differences in PTSD prevalence. We compare prevalence estimates for current PTSD between military subgroups, providing insight into how groups may be differentially affected by deployment. Systematic literature searches using the terms PTSD, stress disorder, and acute stress, combined with terms relating to military personnel, identified 49 relevant papers. Studies with a sample size of less than 100 and studies based on data for treatment seeking or injured populations were excluded. Studies were categorized according to theatre of deployment (Iraq or Afghanistan), combat and noncombat deployed samples, sex, enlistment type (regular or reserve and [or] National Guard), and service branch (for example, army, navy, and air force). Meta-analysis was used to assess PTSD prevalence across subgroups. There was large variability in PTSD prevalence between studies, but, regardless of heterogeneity, prevalence rates of PTSD were higher among studies of Iraq-deployed personnel (12.9%; 95% CI 11.3% to 14.4%), compared with personnel deployed to Afghanistan (7.1%; 95% CI 4.6% to 9.6%), combat deployed personnel, and personnel serving in the Canadian, US, or UK army or the navy or marines (12.4%; 95% CI 10.9% to 13.4%), compared with the other services (4.9%; 95% CI 1.4% to 8.4%). Contrary to findings from within-study comparisons, we did not find a difference in PTSD prevalence for regular active-duty and reserve or National Guard personnel. Categorizing studies according to deployment location and branch of service identified differences among subgroups that provide further support for factors underlying the development of PTSD. PMID:25569079

  10. Relationship between altitude and the prevalence of hypertension in Tibet: a systematic review

    PubMed Central

    Mingji, Cuomu; Onakpoya, Igho J; Perera, Rafael; Ward, Alison M; Heneghan, Carl J

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Hypertension is a leading cause of cardiovascular disease, which is the cause of one-third of global deaths and is a primary and rising contributor to the global disease burden. The objective of this systematic review was to determine the prevalence and awareness of hypertension among the inhabitants of Tibet and its association with altitude, using the data from published observational studies. Methods We conducted electronic searches in Medline, Embase, ISI Web of Science and Global Health. No gender or language restrictions were imposed. We assessed the methodological characteristics of included studies using the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) criteria. Two reviewers independently determined the eligibility of studies, assessed the methodology of included studies and extracted the data. We used meta-regression to estimate the degree of change in hypertension prevalence with increasing altitude. Results We identified 22 eligible articles of which eight cross-sectional studies with a total of 16 913 participants were included. The prevalence of hypertension ranged between 23% and 56%. A scatter plot of altitude against overall prevalence revealed a statistically significant correlation (r=0.68; p=0.04). Meta-regression analysis revealed a 2% increase in the prevalence of hypertension with every 100 m increase in altitude (p=0.06). The locations and socioeconomic status of subjects affected the awareness and subsequent treatment and control of hypertension. Conclusions The results from cross-sectional studies suggest that there is a significant correlation between altitude and the prevalence of hypertension among inhabitants of Tibet. The socioeconomic status of the inhabitants can influence awareness and management of hypertension. Very little research into hypertension has been conducted in other prefectures of Tibet where the altitude is much higher. Further research examining the impact of altitude

  11. Differential prevalence and diversity of haemosporidian parasites in two sympatric closely related non-migratory passerines.

    PubMed

    Dubiec, Anna; Podmokła, Edyta; Zagalska-Neubauer, Magdalena; Drobniak, Szymon M; Arct, Aneta; Gustafsson, Lars; Cichoń, Mariusz

    2016-09-01

    Haemosporidian parasites infecting birds show distinct heterogeneity in their distribution among host species. However, despite numerous studies on the prevalence and diversity of parasite communities across species, very little is known on patterns of differences between them. Such data is lacking because up to date the majority of studies explored the patterns of variation in infections in different years, different time of sampling within a year or a breeding cycle, different study sites or was based on a small sample size, all of which may affect the estimates of prevalence and parasite diversity. Here, the prevalence, richness and diversity of haemosporidian parasites from the genera Plasmodium and Haemoproteus were studied in two closely related non-migratory hole-nesting passerines: Great Tits and Blue Tits. Birds were sampled in sympatrically breeding populations during two seasons at the same stage of their breeding cycle - late nestling care. Great Tits were more prevalently infected with Plasmodium and Haemoproteus parasites (97·1 vs 71·2%), harboured a higher proportion of multiple infections (26·2 vs 3·2%) and had a more diverse parasite community (11 vs 5 parasite lineages) than Blue Tits. Observed differences between two host species are discussed with reference to their breeding densities and immunological and behavioural characteristics. PMID:27173618

  12. Erectile dysfunction in primary care: prevalence and patient characteristics. The ENIGMA study.

    PubMed

    de Boer, B J; Bots, M L; Lycklama a Nijeholt, A A B; Moors, J P C; Pieters, H M; Verheij, Th J M

    2004-08-01

    The availability of adequate treatment for erectile dysfunction (ED) triggers studies into the prevalence of ED in the general population. Yet, previous studies showed different prevalence estimates partly due to differences in patient selection, in (unclear) definitions of ED and in assessment. ENIGMA has been designed to study the prevalence of ED in the general population of The Netherlands, using the WHO definition with a description of the way of assessment. In all, 5721 mail surveys were sent to all men, aged 18 y and older in 12 general practices in The Netherlands. A total of 5601 were included in the study and 2117 (38%) were completed. A total of 38% of the men reported to have ever had some kind of erectile problem. The prevalence of ED was 17% (6% mild, 4% moderate and 7% complete). Age, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, penile disorders, irradiation in the pelvic region, relational problems, fear for failure, surmenage, medication use and regular consumption of alcohol were independently related to ED. Men with ED were less content with their (sexual) life and had less confidence in sexual performance. Presence of ED was negatively related to affected happiness in life. ED is commonly found in men and is related to age, medication, comorbidity and lifestyle factors. Men with ED perceive a lower quality of (sex)life. Doctors should be aware of the presence of ED and its consequences in patients. PMID:14961062

  13. Factors influencing the prevalence of subclinical mastitis in lactating dromedary camels in Riyadh Region, Saudi Arabia.

    PubMed

    Aljumaah, Riyadh S; Almutairi, Faris F; Ayadi, Moez; Alshaikh, Mohammad A; Aljumaah, Ali M; Hussein, Mansour F

    2011-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of subclinical mastitis in camels in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and the factors influencing its incidence. A total of 740 quarter milk samples were collected from 47 camel herds belonging to Majahim, Maghatir, Shu'l, and Sufer breeds. California mastitis test (CMT) was used as a screening test for subclinical mastitis. Samples giving negative or trace CMT scores (0) were assigned to healthy quarters, while those giving positive scores of 1+ to 3+ were assigned to subclinically affected quarters. Logistic regression was used to assess the association of breed, parity, and stage of lactation with the prevalence of subclinical mastitis. Milk fat, protein, lactose, solid nonfat percentages and Na, Ca, and K concentrations were compared in CMT-positive versus healthy quarters. One third (33%) of tested quarters had subclinical mastitis based on CMT. The estimated probability of subclinical mastitis with the combined effects of breed, parity, and stage of lactation ranged from 15.8% to 54.6%. The risk of subclinical mastitis increased significantly with parity and with the early stage of lactation. The Shu'l breed had significantly higher prevalence of subclinical mastitis than other breeds. Significant decreases in protein, lactose, and solid nonfat, Ca and K concentrations and increase in Na concentrations were associated with subclinical mastitis. In conclusion, subclinical mastitis is prevalent in Saudi camels, and its incidence is influenced by breed, parity, and stage of lactation. PMID:21637994

  14. The Prevalence of Limited Health Literacy

    PubMed Central

    Paasche-Orlow, Michael K; Parker, Ruth M; Gazmararian, Julie A; Nielsen-Bohlman, Lynn T; Rudd, Rima R

    2005-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To systematically review U.S. studies examining the prevalence of limited health literacy and to synthesize these findings by evaluating demographic associations in pooled analyses. DESIGN We searched the literature for the period 1963 through January 2004 and identified 2,132 references related to a set of specified search terms. Of the 134 articles and published abstracts retrieved, 85 met inclusion criteria, which were 1) conducted in the United States with ≥25 adults, 2) addressed a hypothesis related to health care, 3) identified a measurement instrument, and 4) presented primary data. The authors extracted data to compare studies by population, methods, and results. MAIN RESULTS The 85 studies reviewed include data on 31,129 subjects, and report a prevalence of low health literacy between 0% and 68%. Pooled analyses of these data reveal that the weighted prevalence of low health literacy was 26% (95% confidence interval [CI], 22% to 29%) and of marginal health literacy was 20% (95% CI, 16% to 23%). Most studies used either the Rapid Estimate of Adult Literacy in Medicine (REALM) or versions of the Test of Functional Health Literacy in Adults (TOFHLA). The prevalence of low health literacy was not associated with gender (P =.38) or measurement instrument (P =.23) but was associated with level of education (P =.02), ethnicity (P =.0003), and age (P =.004). CONCLUSIONS A pooled analysis of published reports on health literacy cannot provide a nationally representative prevalence estimate. This systematic review exhibits that limited health literacy, as depicted in the medical literature, is prevalent and is consistently associated with education, ethnicity, and age. It is essential to simplify health services and improve health education. Such changes have the potential to improve the health of Americans and address the health disparities that exist today. PMID:15836552

  15. Prevalence estimation of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) antibodies in dogs from Finland using novel dog anti-TBEV IgG MAb-capture and IgG immunofluorescence assays based on recombinant TBEV subviral particles.

    PubMed

    Levanov, Lev; Vera, Cristina Pérez; Vapalahti, Olli

    2016-07-01

    Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is one of the most dangerous human neurological infections occurring in Europe and Northern parts of Asia with thousands of cases and millions vaccinated against it. The risk of TBE might be assessed through analyses of the samples taken from wildlife or from animals which are in close contact with humans. Dogs have been shown to be a good sentinel species for these studies. Serological assays for diagnosis of TBE in dogs are mainly based on purified and inactivated TBEV antigens. Here we describe novel dog anti-TBEV IgG monoclonal antibody (MAb)-capture assay which is based on TBEV prME subviral particles expressed in mammalian cells from Semliki Forest virus (SFV) replicon as well as IgG immunofluorescence assay (IFA) which is based on Vero E6 cells transfected with the same SFV replicon. We further demonstrate their use in a small-scale TBEV seroprevalence study of dogs representing different regions of Finland. Altogether, 148 dog serum samples were tested by novel assays and results were compared to those obtained with a commercial IgG enzyme immunoassay (EIA), hemagglutination inhibition test and IgG IFA with TBEV infected cells. Compared to reference tests, the sensitivities of the developed assays were 90-100% and the specificities of the two assays were 100%. Analysis of the dog serum samples showed a seroprevalence of 40% on Åland Islands and 6% on Southwestern archipelago of Finland. In conclusion, a specific and sensitive EIA and IFA for the detection of IgG antibodies in canine sera were developed. Based on these assays the seroprevalence of IgG antibodies in dogs from different regions of Finland was assessed and was shown to parallel the known human disease burden as the Southwestern archipelago and Åland Islands in particular had considerable dog TBEV antibody prevalence and represent areas with high risk of TBE for humans. PMID:27189583

  16. [Dual diagnosis in psychiatric inpatients: prevalence and general characteristics].

    PubMed

    Rodríguez-Jiménez, Roberto; Aragüés, María; Jiménez-Arriero, Miguel Angel; Ponce, Guillermo; Muñoz, Antonio; Bagney, Alexandra; Hoenicka, Janet; Palomo, Tomás

    2008-06-01

    Comorbidity between a substance use disorder (SUD) and another psychiatric disorder is known as dual diagnosis. It is of great relevance due to its important clinical consequences and costs of care. There are practically no published studies on dual diagnosis prevalence in patients admitted to psychiatric hospitalization units in general hospitals (PHUGH) in our country. The objectives were to estimate the prevalence of dual diagnosis in psychiatric inpatients admitted consecutively to a Psychiatric Hospitalization Unit (Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, Spain) in one year, to compare clinical and sociodemographic variables between the dual diagnosis group (DD group) and the group with a psychiatric disorder but no SUD (PD group), and to study the types of substances used. This is a retrospective study, based on the review of the clinical charts of the 257 patients admitted to this PHUGH in one year. The results showed that, excluding nicotine dependence, 24.9% of our inpatients had a SUD as well as another psychiatric disorder. A statistically significant predominance of men was found in the DD group, as well as a younger age at the time of the study, at the beginning of their psychiatric attention and on their first psychiatric admission, and they had received diagnoses of schizophrenia or related psychoses more often than the PD group, who had mostly affective disorders. The substances most frequently used in the DD group were alcohol (78.1%), cannabis (62.5%), and cocaine (51.6%). Due to the high prevalence and repercussions of dual diagnosis, it would be advisable to have specialized therapeutic programs for its treatment. PMID:18717266

  17. CKD Prevalence Varies across the European General Population.

    PubMed

    Brück, Katharina; Stel, Vianda S; Gambaro, Giovanni; Hallan, Stein; Völzke, Henry; Ärnlöv, Johan; Kastarinen, Mika; Guessous, Idris; Vinhas, José; Stengel, Bénédicte; Brenner, Hermann; Chudek, Jerzy; Romundstad, Solfrid; Tomson, Charles; Gonzalez, Alfonso Otero; Bello, Aminu K; Ferrieres, Jean; Palmieri, Luigi; Browne, Gemma; Capuano, Vincenzo; Van Biesen, Wim; Zoccali, Carmine; Gansevoort, Ron; Navis, Gerjan; Rothenbacher, Dietrich; Ferraro, Pietro Manuel; Nitsch, Dorothea; Wanner, Christoph; Jager, Kitty J

    2016-07-01

    CKD prevalence estimation is central to CKD management and prevention planning at the population level. This study estimated CKD prevalence in the European adult general population and investigated international variation in CKD prevalence by age, sex, and presence of diabetes, hypertension, and obesity. We collected data from 19 general-population studies from 13 European countries. CKD stages 1-5 was defined as eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2), as calculated by the CKD-Epidemiology Collaboration equation, or albuminuria >30 mg/g, and CKD stages 3-5 was defined as eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) CKD prevalence was age- and sex-standardized to the population of the 27 Member States of the European Union (EU27). We found considerable differences in both CKD stages 1-5 and CKD stages 3-5 prevalence across European study populations. The adjusted CKD stages 1-5 prevalence varied between 3.31% (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 3.30% to 3.33%) in Norway and 17.3% (95% CI, 16.5% to 18.1%) in northeast Germany. The adjusted CKD stages 3-5 prevalence varied between 1.0% (95% CI, 0.7% to 1.3%) in central Italy and 5.9% (95% CI, 5.2% to 6.6%) in northeast Germany. The variation in CKD prevalence stratified by diabetes, hypertension, and obesity status followed the same pattern as the overall prevalence. In conclusion, this large-scale attempt to carefully characterize CKD prevalence in Europe identified substantial variation in CKD prevalence that appears to be due to factors other than the prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and obesity. PMID:26701975

  18. Prevalence of Gastrointestinal Pathogens In Developed and Developing Countries: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Fletcher, Stephanie M.; McLaws, Mary-Louise; Ellis, John T.

    2013-01-01

    Diarrhoeal illness is a leading cause of child mortality and morbidity worldwide. There are no precise or current estimates of the types and prevalence of pathogens associated with diarrheal illnesses in developed and developing settings. This systematic review assessed data from 60 studies published in the English language from five developing regions and developed countries worldwide to provide regional estimates of enteric pathogens affecting children. The random-effect method was used to establish the weighted average prevalence of pathogens in adults and children for each region. Significantly more pathogens were reported by studies from developing regions compared with Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries (P<0.016). The identification rates of pathogens from community based and hospital based studies were similar (58.5% and 58.1% respectively, P<0.619). The overall detection of enteric pathogens in developing countries was higher in adults (74.8%; 95% CI 63.1-83.8%) compared with children (56.7%; 95% CI 53.0-60.4%) (P<0.001). Rotavirus was the most frequently detected pathogen in all regions with the highest rate, 24.8% (95% CI 18.0-33.1%), detected in the developed countries. This systematic review is the first to provide an estimate of the prevalence of enteric pathogens associated with diarrhoeal illnesses in adults and children in developed and developing settings. While pathogen detection rate is greater in developing regions the consistently high prevalence of rotavirus in both developed and developing settings underscores the urgent need for access to rotavirus vaccines. Increased travel between developing and developed countries increases disease risk, and hence developed countries have a vested interest in supporting vaccine accessibility in developing settings. PMID:25170480

  19. Rethinking HIV prevalence determination in developing countries.

    PubMed

    Makinde, Olusesan A; Oyediran, Kolawole A

    2015-01-01

    The process for HIV prevalence determination using antenatal clinic (ANC) sentinel surveillance data has been plagued by criticisms of its biasness. Exploring other means of HIV prevalence determination is necessary to validate that estimates are near actual values or to replace the current system. We propose a data collection model that leverages the increasing adoption and penetration of the Internet and mobile technology to collect and archive routine data from HIV counseling and testing (HCT) client intake forms from all HCT centers and prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) sites in a country. These data will then be mined to determine prevalence rates and risk factors at the community level. The need to improve the method for the generation of HIV prevalence rates has been repeatedly echoed by researchers though no one has been able to fashion out a better and more reliable way to the current ANC sentinel surveillance method at a reasonable cost. The chance of using routinely generated data during HCT and PMTCT is appealing and needs to be envisioned as the technology to achieve this is increasingly becoming available and affordable in countries worst hit by the pandemic. Triangulating data generated from routine HCT and PMTCT sites with data from sentinel surveillance and where the confidence of its quality is assured, as the sole source of HIV prevalence rate determination and behavioral risk assessment will improve the acceptance by communities and drive evidence-based interventions at the community level. PMID:25174731

  20. Prevalence of childhood asthma in Istanbul, Turkey.

    PubMed

    Oneş, U; Sapan, N; Somer, A; Dişçi, R; Salman, N; Güler, N; Yalçin, I

    1997-05-01

    In order to determine the asthma prevalence in 6-12-year-old schoolchildren in Istanbul, we issued 2350 questionnaires, according to ISAAC criteria, in six randomly selected city primary schools to be completed at home by parents. A total of 2232 of the questionnaires were completed, an overall response rate of 94.9%, and 2216 questionnaires were taken into consideration. The prevalence of asthma was found to be 9.8% and wheezing 15.1%. To investigate the effect of socioeconomic status on the prevalence of asthma, we evaluated the heating system at home, the place of residence, the educational levels of the mother and father, the number of people living in the house, the sharing of bedrooms, and the annual family income. In conclusion, the prevalence of childhood asthma was not affected by any of these factors. Atopic family history, food allergy, eczema, and frequent otitis media and sinusitis attacks were evaluated and found to be significant in asthma prevalence. PMID:9201370

  1. Prevalence and factors associated with road traffic crash among bus drivers in Hanoi, Vietnam.

    PubMed

    La, Quang Ngoc; Lee, Andy H; Meuleners, Lynn B; Van Duong, Dat

    2013-01-01

    Bus provides a main mode of public transport in Vietnam, but the risk of road traffic crash for bus drivers is unknown. This retrospective study estimated the crash prevalence among bus drivers in Hanoi, Vietnam, and identified driver characteristics affecting their crashes. Information on bus crashes for the period 2006-2009 was collected by interviewing drivers from five bus companies in Hanoi using a structured questionnaire. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine pertinent risk factors affecting the crash prevalence for bus drivers. Of the total 365 participants recruited, 73 drivers reported 76 crashes, giving an overall crash prevalence of 20%. Among the crashed group, three drivers (4%) were involved in two crashes during the past 3 years. Crashes mainly occurred on streets or local roads (81%). Migrant worker (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 4.26, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.20-8.25) and insufficient income perceived (OR 2.60, 95% CI 1.37-4.93) were identified to be significantly associated with the crash risk. Further prospective and qualitative studies are needed to provide detailed crash characteristics as well as behaviour and perception of bus drivers, so that an effective intervention can be developed to improve road safety and to prevent traffic injury of these drivers. PMID:23190322

  2. [Prevalence of psychiatric disorders among homeless adolescents].

    PubMed

    Aichhorn, Wolfgang; Santeler, Stefan; Stelzig-Schöler, Renate; Kemmler, Georg; Steinmayr-Gensluckner, Maria; Hinterhuber, Hartmann

    2008-01-01

    Various studies show a high prevalence of mental disorders among homeless people. So far most of these studies deal solely with single men, mainly affected by homelessness. Few data exist for women, children, adolescents and whole families that are more and more affected by poverty and homelessness. This study, conducted in Innsbruck/Austria, determined the prevalence of psychiatric disorders among homeless adolescents. The adolescents were recruited in a counselling centre and homeless shelter specifically founded for homeless youth. Mental disorders were diagnosed with the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV (SKID-I). 40 adolescents and young adults ranging from 14-23 years (mean 17.9 years) were included in the study. The results show that 58% of the homeless adolescents were exposed to continuous violence in their families and that violence was a major reason for them to leave home. The overall prevalence of diagnosed psychiatric disorders was 80% in the whole sample; the leading disorder was substance abuse/dependence (65%), followed by mood disorders (42.5%), anxiety disorders (17.5%) and eating disorders (17.5%). 57.5% of the adolescents had a history of self-harm and 25% reported at least one suicide attempt. Duration of homelessness had the greatest influence on the prevalence of mental disorders. Longer duration of homelessness was associated with a higher risk of psychiatric disorder or self-harm. These results demonstrate the urgent need for early psychosocial and psychiatric help for homeless adolescents. PMID:18826872

  3. Prevalence of Pervasive Developmental Disorders in Children and Adolescents with Mental Retardation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    De Bildt, Annelies; Sytema, Sjoerd; Kraijer, Dirk; Minderaa, Ruud

    2005-01-01

    Background: Insight into the prevalence of pervasive developmental disorder (PDD) in children and adolescents with mental retardation (MR) is known to be of clinical importance. However, estimating this prevalence is complicated. The literature reports prevalence rates ranging from 3% through 50%. This variation seems to be related to the concepts…

  4. Prevalence and predictors of PTSD and depression among adolescent victims of the Spring 2011 tornado outbreak

    PubMed Central

    Adams, Zachary W.; Sumner, Jennifer A.; Danielson, Carla Kmett; McCauley, Jenna L.; Resnick, Heidi S.; Grös, Kirstin; Paul, Lisa A.; Welsh, Kyleen E.; Ruggiero, Kenneth J.

    2014-01-01

    Background Relatively few studies have examined prevalence and predictors of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) or major depressive episode (MDE) in disaster-affected adolescents. Fewer still have administered diagnostic measures or studied samples exposed to tornadoes, a common type of disaster. Further, methodological problems limit the generalizability of previous findings. This study addressed prevalence estimates and risk factors for PTSD and MDE among adolescents exposed to the spring 2011 tornado outbreak in Alabama and Joplin, Missouri. Methods A large (N=2,000), population-based sample of adolescents and caregivers, recruited randomly from tornado-affected communities, participated in structured telephone interviews. PTSD and MDE prevalence were estimated for the overall sample, by gender, and by age. Hierarchical logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for PTSD and MDE. Results Overall, 6.7% of adolescents met diagnostic criteria for PTSD and 7.5% of adolescents met diagnostic criteria for MDE since the tornado. Girls were significantly more likely than boys to meet diagnostic criteria for MDE, and older adolescents were more likely than younger adolescents to report MDE since the tornado. Female gender, prior trauma exposure, and an injured family member were associated with greater risk for PTSD and MDE. Specific incident characteristics (loss of services, concern about others’ safety) were associated with greater PTSD risk; prior disaster exposure was associated with lower MDE risk. Conclusions Whereas most adolescents were resilient following tornado exposure, roughly 1 in 15 developed PTSD, 1 in 13 developed MDE, and many more endorsed subclinical mental health problems. Information regarding specific risk factors can guide early screening, prevention, and intervention efforts in disaster-affected communities. PMID:24580551

  5. Determinants of oral cancer at the national level: just a question of smoking and alcohol drinking prevalence?

    PubMed

    Petti, Stefano; Scully, Crispian

    2010-07-01

    In addition to individual-based prevention strategies, the burden of oral cancer could be decreased by controlling its national level determinants. Population-based studies have found smoking, drinking, and wealth to be associated with oral cancer incidence and mortality rates. However, these studies merely reported trends, or did not account for confounders or for intercorrelation between predictor variables. This ecologic study sought to investigate oral cancer determinants at the country level. The male, age-standardized mortality rate was the dependent variable. The explanatory variables, obtained from reliable international agencies, were life expectancy, frequency of physicians, gross national product (GNP), expenditure on health, literacy rate, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence, smoking prevalence, alcohol drinking prevalence, drinking modality, average daily calorie consumption, and average calorie intake from fruit and vegetables. Common factor analysis was used to generate a new dimension that incorporated all of the strongly intercorrelated variables. These were life expectancy, physician frequency, GNP, expenditure on health, literacy rate, calorie consumption, smoking prevalence, and drinking modality. According to this dimension, arbitrarily called the country development level (CDL), countries were split into quartiles. The ecologic risk for high mortality from oral cancer, estimated using logistic regression analysis, was three to five times higher among the second, third, and fourth CDL quartiles than among the first CDL quartile, which included the highest-income countries. HIV, drinking prevalence, and fruit and vegetable intake did not affect significantly mortality. These results suggest that it might be possible to improve oral cancer mortality by modifying country-based determinants related to aberrant lifestyles (not only smoking and drinking prevalence) and improving healthcare system efficiency, approximately estimated by CDL

  6. Alcoholism prevalence and some related factors in Edirne, Turkey.

    PubMed

    Ekuklu, Galip; Deveci, Serol; Eskiocak, Muzaffer; Berberoglu, Ufuk; Saltik, Ahmet

    2004-04-30

    The aim of this research was to estimate the community prevalence of alcoholism and the potential risk factors that affect it in the Edirne provincial centre by using a scanning test. A cross-sectional study was carried out in the Edirne provincial centre. A sample population composed of 500 women and 200 men was selected randomly after the categorisation of the population according to ethnicity, age and sex. Through face-to-face interviews, data collection sheets, which were prepared to analyse potential factors affecting alcoholism frequency, were filled in by the sample population. The Michigan Alcoholism Scanning Test (MAST) was employed. According to MAST's normal grading, individuals with 5 or more points are evaluated as alcoholics. Accordingly, 8.2% of the sample population fit the definition of alcoholic. Alcoholism frequency was considerably higher in gypsies, the self-employed, smokers, and people with higher income. From logistic regression analysis alcoholism frequency was 12.4 times higher in men than in women, 3.2 times higher in gypsies than in others, 1.9 times higher in people who earned an income in the preceding week than in the unemployed, and 3.7 times higher in individuals who had smoked more than 100 cigarettes during their life or those who had smoked at least 1 cigarette for 3 months or for a longer period than in those who hadn't smoked any cigarettes. The prevalence of alcoholism in the Edirne provincial centre was similar to that in other countries in Europe. The most important finding was that alcohol consumption decreased in the unemployed, a finding that differs from that in other parts of the world. Gypsies, who differ in tradition, way of life, and job compared to the other strata of society, also suffered from higher alcohol consumption. This group usually consumed wine and generally did not eat while drinking. PMID:15118990

  7. PSEUDOBULBAR AFFECT IN MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS PATIENTS.

    PubMed

    Vidović, Viktor; Rovazdi, Merisanda Časar; Kraml, Oto; Kes, Vanja Bašić

    2015-06-01

    The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence of pseudobulbar affect (PBA) in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) and to analyze the link between PBA and patient age, sex, clinical course of MS, disease duration and degree of disability. The study was conducted on 79 MS patients that underwent inpatient rehabilitation at the Lipik Special Hospital for Medical Rehabilitation in the period from August 15, 2014 to February 15, 2015. PBA is a term used for an emotional disinhibition syndrome characterized by sudden and involuntary episodes of crying or laughing which are not in proportion to the stimulus applied or occur without stimulus. The condition can be present in patients with various neurological disorders, such as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, patients having recovered from stroke, or following traumatic brain injury. The estimated prevalence in patients with MS ranges from 10% to 46.2%. As a measuring instrument in the study, we used the Center for Neurologic Study-Lability Scale (CNS-LS), where a sum 17 denoted positive finding. The total number of respondents was 79, of which 33 (41.8%) met the CNS-LS criteria for the diagnosis of PBA. There was no statistically significant correlation between PBA, age and degree of disability, although PBA was more common in women and in patients with a secondary progressive form of the disease. We found that 42.4% of respondents with positive CNS-LS criteria for PBA did not inform their neurologist on the presence of sudden mood changes. The high frequency of PBA and the fact that a significant proportion of patients did not inform the neurologist on their affective disturbances call for an active approach to diagnosis and treatment. PMID:26415311

  8. Estimating the burden of rheumatoid arthritis in Africa: A systematic analysis

    PubMed Central

    Dowman, Ben; Campbell, Ruth M.; Zgaga, Lina; Adeloye, Davies; Chan, Kit Yee

    2012-01-01

    Background Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) has an estimated worldwide prevalence of 1%. It is one of the leading causes of chronic morbidity in the developed world, but little is known about the disease burden in Africa. RA is often seen as a minor health problem and has been neglected in research and resource allocation throughout Africa despite potentially fatal systemic manifestations. This review aims to identify all relevant epidemiological literature pertaining to the occurrence of RA in Africa and calculate the prevalence and burden of disease. Methods A systematic literature review of Medline, Embase and Global Health Library retrieved a total of 335 publications, of which 10 population studies and 11 hospital studies met pre–defined minimum criteria for relevance and quality. Data on prevalence was extracted, analysed and compared between population and hospital studies. Differences between genders were also analysed. Findings The estimated crude prevalence of RA in Africa based on the available studies was 0.36% in 1990, which translates to a burden of 2.3 million affected individuals in 1990. Projections for the African population in 2010 based on the same prevalence rates would suggest a crude prevalence of 0.42% and the burden increased to 4.3 million. Only 2 population studies have been conducted after 1990, so projections for 2010 are uncertain. Hospital–based studies under–report the prevalence by about 6 times in comparison to population–based studies. Conclusion The availability of epidemiological information on RA in Africa is very limited. More studies need to be conducted to estimate the true burden and patterns of RA before appropriate health policies can be developed. PMID:23289081

  9. Affective Learning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Charles T.

    This paper addresses itself to the question, "What does feeling have to do with knowing?" Two movements in affective education are discussed which have come into focus in recent years and which attempt to define the relationship between knowing and feeling. The first, a conscious application of the role of arousal in learning, emphasizes arousal…

  10. Migraine prevalence, socioeconomic status, and social causation

    PubMed Central

    Roy, Jason; Lipton, Richard B.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To determine whether the known higher prevalence of migraine in lower household (HH) income groups is explained by a higher incidence rate or a lower remission rate. Methods: We used data from the American Migraine Prevalence and Prevention Study, a US national sample of 132,674 females (with a 64.3% response rate) and 124,665 males (with a 62.0% response rate) 12 years of age and older. Data were previously collected on migraine symptoms, onset age, and demographics. Previously validated methods applied to the American Migraine Prevalence and Prevention Study data were used to simulate a cohort study. Incidence and remission rates were estimated within 3 sex-specific HH income groups (<$22,500, $22,500–$59,999, and ≥$60,000). The χ2 test was used to determine whether the incidence or remission rates differed by HH income group as an explanation for differences in migraine prevalence by HH income. Results: Migraine prevalence increased as HH income decreased for females (χ2, p < 0.01) and males (χ2, p < 0.01). Differences were not explained by race and other known confounders. Variation in prevalence was explained, in large part, by a higher incidence rate in the lower HH income groups for both females (χ2, p < 0.01) and males (χ2, p < 0.01). Migraine remission rates did not differ by HH income. Conclusions: The higher incidence of migraine in lower HH income groups is compatible with the social causation hypothesis. Once initiated, migraine remission is independent of HH income. Onset and remission may have etiologically distinct causes. PMID:23990405

  11. Estimation of changes in C-reactive protein level and pregnancy outcome after nonsurgical supportive periodontal therapy in women affected with periodontitis in a rural set up of India

    PubMed Central

    Khairnar, Mayur S.; Pawar, Babita R.; Marawar, Pramod P.; Khairnar, Darshana M.

    2015-01-01

    Aims and Objectives: Estimation of changes in C-reactive protein (CRP) level and pregnancy outcome after nonsurgical supportive periodontal therapy in pregnant women affected with Periodontitis. Materials and Methods: A total of 100 pregnant females with periodontitis were assigned to treatment and control groups. All the details about previous and current pregnancies were obtained. Full-mouth periodontal examination was done at baseline, which included oral hygiene index simplified plaque index, gingival index, and clinical attachment loss. CRP level was also measured from collected blood sample initially at baseline and later after the delivery in both the group. Subjects in the treatment group received nonsurgical periodontal treatment during the second trimester of gestational period, and those in the control group did not receive any periodontal therapy during this period. Periodontal therapy included mechanical plaque control instructions and scaling and root planning. Outcome measures assessed were changes in CRP levels, gestational age, and birth weight of the infants. When delivery occurred at <37 weeks of gestation, it was considered as preterm birth (PTB), and low birth weight (LBW) was recorded when the infant weighed <2500 g. Results: In the treatment group, 32% of PTB and 68% of Normal term birth (NTB) delivery whereas in the control group 72% PTB and 28% of NTB were recorded. Infants measured with LBW were 36% in the treatment group and 52% in the control group. Mean birth weight was 2644.44 ± 450.53 g in the treatment group and 2447.82 ± 368.02 g in the control group (P < 0.05). Mean gestational age in the treatment group was 35.57 ± 2.40 weeks and 34.17 ± 2.92 weeks in the control group (P < 0.05). The treatment group showed statistically significant reduction in mean values of CRP level after delivery in comparison to baseline values (P < 0.05), whereas control group showed no significant reduction in values (P > 0.05). Conclusion: Nonsurgical

  12. A 9-year Trend in the Prevalence of Allergic Disease Based on National Health Insurance Data

    PubMed Central

    Yoo, Byoungin; Park, Yoonhyung; Park, Kwanjun; Kim, Hoseob

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate trends in the prevalence of allergic disease over a 9-year period. Methods: Using National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) data, the annual number of patients with allergic disease was obtained for each regional subdivisions (small cities, counties, and districts) from 2003 to 2011. Annual populations for each sub-region were obtained and used to calculate the standardized prevalence. To compare prevalence within the study period, data was standardized spatially and temporally. For standardization, demographic data was used to obtain the registered population and demographic structure for 2010, which was used to perform direct standardization of previous years. In addition, a geographic information system (GIS) was used to visualize prevalence for individual sub-regions, and allergic diseases were categorized into five groups according to prevalence. Results: The nationwide outpatient prevalence of allergic rhinitis increased approximately 2.3-fold, from 1.27% in 2003 to 2.97% in 2013, while inpatient prevalence also increased approximately 2.4-fold,. The outpatient prevalence of asthma increased 1.2-fold, and inpatient prevalence increased 1.3-fold. The outpatient prevalence of atopic dermatitis decreased approximately 12%, and inpatient prevalence decreased 5%. Conclusions: There was a large difference between prevalence estimated from actual treatment data and prevalence based on patients’ self-reported data, particularly for allergic rhinitis. Prevalence must continually be calculated and trends should be analyzed for the efficient management of allergic diseases. To this end, prevalence studies using NHIS claims data may be useful. PMID:26639744

  13. The Incidence and Prevalence of Neuromyelitis Optica

    PubMed Central

    Gryba, Caroline

    2013-01-01

    Interest in neuromyelitis optica (NMO) has increased substantially over the last few years, but it is not known whether NMO has the same geographic and temporal variations in disease risk as multiple sclerosis (MS). We aimed to evaluate the worldwide incidence and prevalence of NMO through a systematic review of published peer-reviewed studies. We performed a search of the English-language literature using MEDLINE and EMBASE from January 1985 to March 2012. Search terms included “neuromyelitis optica,” “Devic's,” “opticospinal,” “incidence,” “prevalence,” and “epidemiology.” We assessed study quality using a standardized instrument. A total of five studies met the inclusion criteria. Three of the studies were from North America, and all studies were published between 2005 and 2012. All studies were of good quality, but only one study reported standardized rates, and subgroup-specific estimates were rarely reported. The incidence of NMO per 100,000 population ranged from 0.053 to 0.40, while the prevalence per 100,000 population ranged from 0.52 to 4.4. Heterogeneity was high among the incidence (I2 = 68.0%) and prevalence studies (I2 = 94.0%). This review highlights the limited knowledge regarding the epidemiology of NMO and the importance of obtaining estimates standardized to common populations to enhance comparability of studies from different jurisdictions. Future studies would also benefit from reporting age-, sex-, and race- or ethnicity-specific estimates. PMID:24453773

  14. ERICA: smoking prevalence in Brazilian adolescents.

    PubMed

    Figueiredo, Valeska Carvalho; Szklo, André Salem; Costa, Letícia Casado; Kuschnir, Maria Cristina C; Silva, Thiago Luiz Nogueira da; Bloch, Katia Vergetti; Szklo, Moyses

    2016-02-01

    OBJECTIVE To estimate the prevalences of tobacco use, tobacco experimentation, and frequent smoking among Brazilian adolescents. METHODS We evaluated participants of the cross-sectional, nation-wide, school-based Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents (ERICA), which included 12- to 17-year-old adolescents from municipalities of over 100 thousand inhabitants. The study sample had a clustered, stratified design and was representative of the whole country, its geographical regions, and all 27 state capitals. The information was obtained with self-administered questionnaires. Tobacco experimentation was defined as having tried cigarettes at least once in life. Adolescents who had smoked on at least one day over the previous 30 days were considered current cigarette smokers. Having smoked cigarettes for at least seven consecutive days was an indicator for regular consumption of tobacco. Considering the complex sampling design, prevalences and 95% confidence intervals were estimated according to sociodemographic and socio-environmental characteristics. RESULTS We evaluated 74,589 adolescents. Among these, 18.5% (95%CI 17.7-19.4) had smoked at least once in life, 5.7% (95%CI 5.3-6.2) smoked at the time of the research, and 2.5% (95%CI 2.2-2.8) smoked often. Adolescents aged 15 to 17 years had higher prevalences for all indicators than those aged 12 to 14 years. The prevalences did not differ significantly between sexes. The highest prevalences were found in the South region and the lowest ones, in the Northeast region. Regardless of sex, the prevalences were found to be higher for adolescents who had had paid jobs, who lived with only one parent, and who reported having been in contact with smokers either inside or outside their homes. Female public school adolescents were found to smoke more than the ones from private schools. CONCLUSIONS Tobacco use among adolescents is still a challenge. Intending to reduce the prevalence of tobacco use among young people

  15. ERICA: smoking prevalence in Brazilian adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Figueiredo, Valeska Carvalho; Szklo, André Salem; Costa, Letícia Casado; Kuschnir, Maria Cristina C; da Silva, Thiago Luiz Nogueira; Bloch, Katia Vergetti; Szklo, Moyses

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To estimate the prevalences of tobacco use, tobacco experimentation, and frequent smoking among Brazilian adolescents. METHODS We evaluated participants of the cross-sectional, nation-wide, school-based Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents (ERICA), which included 12- to 17-year-old adolescents from municipalities of over 100 thousand inhabitants. The study sample had a clustered, stratified design and was representative of the whole country, its geographical regions, and all 27 state capitals. The information was obtained with self-administered questionnaires. Tobacco experimentation was defined as having tried cigarettes at least once in life. Adolescents who had smoked on at least one day over the previous 30 days were considered current cigarette smokers. Having smoked cigarettes for at least seven consecutive days was an indicator for regular consumption of tobacco. Considering the complex sampling design, prevalences and 95% confidence intervals were estimated according to sociodemographic and socio-environmental characteristics. RESULTS We evaluated 74,589 adolescents. Among these, 18.5% (95%CI 17.7-19.4) had smoked at least once in life, 5.7% (95%CI 5.3-6.2) smoked at the time of the research, and 2.5% (95%CI 2.2-2.8) smoked often. Adolescents aged 15 to 17 years had higher prevalences for all indicators than those aged 12 to 14 years. The prevalences did not differ significantly between sexes. The highest prevalences were found in the South region and the lowest ones, in the Northeast region. Regardless of sex, the prevalences were found to be higher for adolescents who had had paid jobs, who lived with only one parent, and who reported having been in contact with smokers either inside or outside their homes. Female public school adolescents were found to smoke more than the ones from private schools. CONCLUSIONS Tobacco use among adolescents is still a challenge. Intending to reduce the prevalence of tobacco use among young

  16. Factors Affecting Minor Psychiatric Disorder in Southern Iranian Nurses: A Latent Class Regression Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Jamali, Jamshid; Roustaei, Narges; Ayatollahi, Seyyed Mohammad Taghi; Sadeghi, Erfan

    2015-01-01

    Background: Mental health is one of the most important dimensions of life and its quality. Minor Psychiatric Disorder as a type of mental health problem is prevalent among health workers. Nursing is considered to be one of the most stressful occupations. Objectives: This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of minor psychiatric disorder and its associated factors among nurses in southern Iran. Patients and Methods: A cross-sectional study was carried out on 771 nurses working in 20 cities of Bushehr and Fars provinces in southern Iran. Participants were recruited through multi-stage sampling during 2014. The General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) was used for screening of minor psychiatric disorder in nurses. Latent Class Regression was used to analyze the data. Results: The prevalence of minor psychiatric disorder among nurses was estimated to be 27.5%. Gender and sleep disorders were significant factors in determining the level of minor psychiatric disorder (P Values of 0.04 and < 0.001, respectively). Female nurses were 20% more likely than males to be classified into the minor psychiatric disorder group. Conclusions: The results of this study provide information about the prevalence of minor psychiatric disorder among nurses, and factors, which affect the prevalence of such disorders. These findings can be used in strategic planning processes to improve nurses’ mental health. PMID:26339670

  17. Prevalence of Healthy Sleep Duration among Adults--United States, 2014.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yong; Wheaton, Anne G; Chapman, Daniel P; Cunningham, Timothy J; Lu, Hua; Croft, Janet B

    2016-02-19

    To promote optimal health and well-being, adults aged 18-60 years are recommended to sleep at least 7 hours each night (1). Sleeping <7 hours per night is associated with increased risk for obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, coronary heart disease, stroke, frequent mental distress, and all-cause mortality (2-4). Insufficient sleep impairs cognitive performance, which can increase the likelihood of motor vehicle and other transportation accidents, industrial accidents, medical errors, and loss of work productivity that could affect the wider community (5). CDC analyzed data from the 2014 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) to determine the prevalence of a healthy sleep duration (≥ 7 hours) among 444,306 adult respondents in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. A total of 65.2% of respondents reported a healthy sleep duration; the age-adjusted prevalence of healthy sleep was lower among non-Hispanic blacks, American Indians/Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians/Pacific Islanders, and multiracial respondents, compared with non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics, and Asians. State-based estimates of healthy sleep duration prevalence ranged from 56.1% in Hawaii to 71.6% in South Dakota. Geographic clustering of the lowest prevalence of healthy sleep duration was observed in the southeastern United States and in states along the Appalachian Mountains, and the highest prevalence was observed in the Great Plains states. More than one third of U.S. respondents reported typically sleeping <7 hours in a 24-hour period, suggesting an ongoing need for public awareness and public education about sleep health; worksite shift policies that ensure healthy sleep duration for shift workers, particularly medical professionals, emergency response personnel, and transportation industry personnel; and opportunities for health care providers to discuss the importance of healthy sleep duration with patients and address reasons for poor sleep health. PMID:26890214

  18. Prevalence and differentials of overweight and obesity in preschool children in Sub-Saharan Africa

    PubMed Central

    Gebremedhin, Samson

    2015-01-01

    Objective To determine the prevalence and differentials of overweight/obesity (body mass index (BMI)-for-age z-score >2) in preschool children in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Design Cross-sectional study. Setting The study was conducted on the basis of the data of 26 Demographic and Health Surveys carried out in SSA since 2010. Participants The records of 155 726 children aged 0–59 months were included in the analysis. Primary outcome Overweight/obesity. Results The prevalence of overweight/obesity was 6.8% (95% CI 6.7% to 6.9%). Among the countries represented, higher figures were reported in Sierra Leone (16.9%), Comoros (15.9%) and Malawi (14.5%), whereas lower prevalence was found in Ethiopia (3.0%), Togo (2.6) and Senegal (2.0%). In 11 of the countries, overweight/obesity was more prevalent than wasting. It is estimated that in the whole subcontinent, 10.7 million children were affected by the problem. The prevalence of overweight/obesity was slightly higher in boys than in girls. Overweight/obesity was three times more frequent in stunted children than in normal children. The risk also significantly increased with increasing maternal BMI and birth weight and decreased with increasing maternal age, maternal education, child's age and number of siblings. On the other hand, no significant association was observed with national gross domestic product per capita, place of residence (urban–rural) and household wealth index. Conclusion Childhood overweight/obesity has become a sizeable problem in the subcontinent. PMID:26700276

  19. The changing prevalence of comorbidity across the age spectrum.

    PubMed

    Piccirillo, Jay F; Vlahiotis, Anna; Barrett, Laurel B; Flood, Kellie L; Spitznagel, Edward L; Steyerberg, Ewout W

    2008-08-01

    The purpose of the research was to demonstrate that comorbid health conditions disproportionately affect elderly cancer patients. Descriptive analyses and stacked area charts were used to examine the prevalence and severity of comorbid ailments by age of 27,506 newly diagnosed patients treated at one of eight cancer centers between 1998 and 2003. Hypertension was the most common ailment in all patients, diabetes was the second most prevalent ailment in middle-aged patients, and previous solid tumor(s) were the second most prevalent ailment in patients aged 74 and older. Although the prevalence and severity of comorbid ailments including dementia and congestive heart failure increased with age, some comorbidities such as HIV/AIDS and obesity decreased. Advances in cancer interventions have increased survivorship, but the impact of the changing prevalence and severity of comorbidities at different ages has implications for targeted research into targeted clinical and psychosocial interventions. PMID:18375141

  20. Autism Spectrum Disorders in the Stockholm Youth Cohort: Design, Prevalence and Validity

    PubMed Central

    Idring, Selma; Rai, Dheeraj; Dal, Henrik; Dalman, Christina; Sturm, Harald; Zander, Eric; Lee, Brian K.; Serlachius, Eva; Magnusson, Cecilia

    2012-01-01

    Objective Reports of rising prevalence of autism spectrum disorders (ASD), along with their profound personal and societal burden, emphasize the need of methodologically sound studies to explore their causes and consequences. We here present the design of a large intergenerational resource for ASD research, along with population-based prevalence estimates of ASD and their diagnostic validity. Method The Stockholm Youth Cohort is a record-linkage study comprising all individuals aged 0–17 years, ever resident in Stockholm County in 2001–2007 (N = 589,114). ASD cases (N = 5,100) were identified using a multisource approach, involving registers covering all pathways to ASD diagnosis and care, and categorized according to co-morbid intellectual disability. Prospectively recorded information on potential determinants and consequences of ASD were retrieved from national and regional health and administrative registers. Case ascertainment was validated through case-note review, and cross validation with co-existing cases in a national twin study. Results The 2007 year prevalence of ASD in all children and young people was 11.5 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval 11.2–11.8), with a co-morbid intellectual disability recorded in 42.6% (41.0–44.2) of cases. We found 96.0% (92.0–98.4) of reviewed case-notes being consistent with a diagnosis of ASD, and confirmed ASD in 85.2% (66.2–95.8) of affected twins. Conclusions Findings from this contemporary study accords with recently reported prevalence estimates from Western countries at around 1%, based on valid case ascertainment. The Stockholm Youth Cohort, in light of the availability of extensive information from Sweden's registers, constitutes an important resource for ASD research. On-going work, including collection of biological samples, will enrich the study further. PMID:22911770

  1. Prevalence of HIV, hepatitis B, and hepatitis C in people with severe mental illness: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Hughes, Elizabeth; Bassi, Shaan; Gilbody, Simon; Bland, Martin; Martin, Fabiola

    2016-01-01

    Summary Background Although people with serious mental illnesses have a high risk of contracting blood-borne viral infection