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Sample records for affect prevalence estimates

  1. G6PD Deficiency Prevalence and Estimates of Affected Populations in Malaria Endemic Countries: A Geostatistical Model-Based Map

    PubMed Central

    Howes, Rosalind E.; Piel, Frédéric B.; Patil, Anand P.; Nyangiri, Oscar A.; Gething, Peter W.; Dewi, Mewahyu; Hogg, Mariana M.; Battle, Katherine E.; Padilla, Carmencita D.; Baird, J. Kevin; Hay, Simon I.

    2012-01-01

    Background Primaquine is a key drug for malaria elimination. In addition to being the only drug active against the dormant relapsing forms of Plasmodium vivax, primaquine is the sole effective treatment of infectious P. falciparum gametocytes, and may interrupt transmission and help contain the spread of artemisinin resistance. However, primaquine can trigger haemolysis in patients with a deficiency in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PDd). Poor information is available about the distribution of individuals at risk of primaquine-induced haemolysis. We present a continuous evidence-based prevalence map of G6PDd and estimates of affected populations, together with a national index of relative haemolytic risk. Methods and Findings Representative community surveys of phenotypic G6PDd prevalence were identified for 1,734 spatially unique sites. These surveys formed the evidence-base for a Bayesian geostatistical model adapted to the gene's X-linked inheritance, which predicted a G6PDd allele frequency map across malaria endemic countries (MECs) and generated population-weighted estimates of affected populations. Highest median prevalence (peaking at 32.5%) was predicted across sub-Saharan Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Although G6PDd prevalence was generally lower across central and southeast Asia, rarely exceeding 20%, the majority of G6PDd individuals (67.5% median estimate) were from Asian countries. We estimated a G6PDd allele frequency of 8.0% (interquartile range: 7.4–8.8) across MECs, and 5.3% (4.4–6.7) within malaria-eliminating countries. The reliability of the map is contingent on the underlying data informing the model; population heterogeneity can only be represented by the available surveys, and important weaknesses exist in the map across data-sparse regions. Uncertainty metrics are used to quantify some aspects of these limitations in the map. Finally, we assembled a database of G6PDd variant occurrences to inform a national-level index of

  2. Data quality and practical challenges of thyroid volume assessment by ultrasound under field conditions - observer errors may affect prevalence estimates of goitre

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background The ultrasonographic estimation of thyroid size has been advocated as being more precise than palpation to diagnose goitre. However, ultrasound also requires technical proficiency. This study was conducted among Saharawi refugees, where goitre is highly prevalent. The objectives were to assess the overall data quality of ultrasound measurements of thyroid volume (Tvol), including the intra- and inter-observer agreement, under field conditions, and to describe some of the practical challenges encountered. Methods In 2007 a cross-sectional study of 419 children (6-14 years old) and 405 women (15-45 years old) was performed on a population of Saharawi refugees with prevalent goitre, who reside in the Algerian desert. Tvol was measured by two trained fieldworkers using portable ultrasound equipment (examiner 1 measured 406 individuals, and examiner 2, 418 individuals). Intra- and inter-observer agreement was estimated in 12 children selected from the study population but not part of the main study. In the main study, an observer error was found in one examiner whose ultrasound images were corrected by linear regression after printing and remeasuring a sample of 272 images. Results The intra-observer agreement in Tvol was higher in examiner 1, with an intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of 0.97 (95% CI: 0.91, 0.99) compared to 0.86 (95% CI: 0.60, 0.96) in examiner 2. The ICC for inter-observer agreement in Tvol was 0.38 (95% CI: -0.20, 0.77). Linear regression coefficients indicated a significant scaling bias in the original measurements of the AP and ML diameter and a systematic underestimation of Tvol (a product of AP, ML, CC and a constant). The agreement between re-measured and original Tvol measured by ICC (95% CI) was 0.76 (0.71, 0.81). The agreement between re-measured and corrected Tvol measured by ICC (95% CI) was 0.97 (0.96, 0.97). Conclusions An important challenge when using ultrasound to assess thyroid volume under field conditions is to

  3. Estimating the prevalence of nonpaternity in Germany.

    PubMed

    Wolf, Michael; Musch, Jochen; Enczmann, Juergen; Fischer, Johannes

    2012-06-01

    The prevalence of nonpaternity in human societies is difficult to establish. To obtain a current and fairly unbiased estimate of the nonpaternity rate in Germany, we analysed a dataset consisting of 971 children and their parents in whom human leukocyte antigen (HLA) typing had been carried out in the context of bone marrow transplantation. In this sample, nine exclusions (0.93%) could be identified on the basis of more than 300 HLA-haplotypes defined by four HLA genes. Given this number of exclusions, a maximum likelihood estimate of the nonpaternity rate in the population of 0.94% was obtained with asymptotic 95% confidence limits of 0.33% and 1.55%, respectively. This result is in accordance with recent surveys as well as findings from Switzerland for a comparable sample, and it suggests that earlier estimates of the nonpaternity rate which were often in excess of 10% may have been largely exaggerated.

  4. Prevalence Estimates of Combat-Related PTSD: A Critical Review

    PubMed Central

    Richardson, Lisa K.; Frueh, B. Christopher; Acierno, Ronald

    2010-01-01

    Objective To provide a critical review of prevalence estimates of combat-related PTSD among military personnel and veterans, and of the relevant factors that may account for the variability of estimates within and across cohorts, including methodological and conceptual factors accounting for differences in prevalence rates across nations, conflicts/wars, and studies. Method We examined MEDLINE and PsycINFO databases for literature on combat-related PTSD. The following terms were used independently and in combinations in this search: PTSD, combat, veterans, military, epidemiology, prevalence. Results The point prevalence of combat-related PTSD in US military veterans since the Vietnam War ranges from about 2 – 17%. Studies of recent conflicts suggest that combat-related PTSD afflicts between 4 – 17% of US Iraq War veterans, but only 3 – 6% of returning UK Iraq War veterans. Thus, the prevalence range is narrower and tends to have a lower ceiling among combat veterans of non-US Western nations. Variability in prevalence is likely due to differences in sampling strategies; measurement strategies; inclusion and measurement of the DSM-IV clinically significant impairment criterion; timing and latency of assessment and potential for recall bias; and combat experiences. Prevalence rates are also likely affected by issues related to PTSD course, chronicity, and comorbidity; symptom overlap with other psychiatric disorders; and sociopolitical and cultural factors that may vary over time and by nation. Conclusions The disorder represents a significant and costly illness to veterans, their families, and society as a whole. However, further carefully conceptualized research is needed to advance our understanding of disorder prevalence, as well as associated information on course, phenomenology, protective factors, treatment, and economic costs. PMID:20073563

  5. Paternal investment affects prevalence of malaria.

    PubMed Central

    Richner, H; Christe, P; Oppliger, A

    1995-01-01

    Both reproduction and parasite defense can be costly, and an animal may face a trade-off between investing in offspring or in parasite defense. In contrast to the findings from nonexperimental studies that the poorly reproducing individuals are often the ones with high parasite loads, this life-history view predicts that individuals with high reproductive investment will show high parasite prevalence. Here we provide an experimental confirmation of a positive association between parental investment levels of male great tits Parus major and the prevalence of Plasmodium spp, a hematozoa causing malaria in various bird species. We manipulated brood size, measured feeding effort of both males and females, and assessed the prevalence of the hemoparasite from blood smears. In enlarged broods the males, but not the females, showed significantly higher rates of food provisioning to the chicks, and the rate of malarial infection was found to be more than double in male, but not female, parents of enlarged broods. The findings show that there may be a trade-off between reproductive effort and parasite defense of the host and also suggest a mechanism for the well documented trade-off between current reproductive effort and parental survival. PMID:7862659

  6. Estimated prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Italy in 2015.

    PubMed

    Battaglia, Mario Alberto; Bezzini, Daiana

    2017-03-01

    Italy is a high risk area for multiple sclerosis (MS) as confirmed by the numerous prevalence and incidence studies conducted in several regions/districts of the country. Nevertheless, there are no recent published epidemiological data, nor studies about the total prevalence of MS in Italy. Our aim was to update as of 2015 the prevalence rates of MS in different geographical areas using already published epidemiological studies, and to estimate the overall prevalence of the disease in Italy. We made a search in MEDLINE database of all published studies on epidemiology of MS in Italy. Then, we applied, to the already published prevalence data, the last published incidence and mortality rates to recalculate, as of 2015, the prevalence of MS. So, we calculated the mean prevalence rate from our extrapolations, and we applied it to the population in 2015 to estimate the number of MS patients in Italy. Our prevalence extrapolations ranged from 122 to 232 cases/100,000 in the mainland and Sicily, with an average of 176/100,000, and from 280 to 317 cases/100,000 in Sardinia with an average of 299/100,000. Applying these media to the Italian population in 2015, we obtained an estimate of more than 109,000 MS patients in Italy. Our estimates were higher than the latest published rates but consistent with the annual increase of prevalence due to incidence that exceeds mortality, with the increase of survival and, maybe, with the probable increase of incidence.

  7. [Using log-binomial model for estimating the prevalence ratio].

    PubMed

    Ye, Rong; Gao, Yan-hui; Yang, Yi; Chen, Yue

    2010-05-01

    To estimate the prevalence ratios, using a log-binomial model with or without continuous covariates. Prevalence ratios for individuals' attitude towards smoking-ban legislation associated with smoking status, estimated by using a log-binomial model were compared with odds ratios estimated by logistic regression model. In the log-binomial modeling, maximum likelihood method was used when there were no continuous covariates and COPY approach was used if the model did not converge, for example due to the existence of continuous covariates. We examined the association between individuals' attitude towards smoking-ban legislation and smoking status in men and women. Prevalence ratio and odds ratio estimation provided similar results for the association in women since smoking was not common. In men however, the odds ratio estimates were markedly larger than the prevalence ratios due to a higher prevalence of outcome. The log-binomial model did not converge when age was included as a continuous covariate and COPY method was used to deal with the situation. All analysis was performed by SAS. Prevalence ratio seemed to better measure the association than odds ratio when prevalence is high. SAS programs were provided to calculate the prevalence ratios with or without continuous covariates in the log-binomial regression analysis.

  8. Estimating disease prevalence in two-phase studies.

    PubMed

    Alonzo, Todd A; Pepe, Margaret Sullivan; Lumley, Thomas

    2003-04-01

    Disease prevalence is ideally estimated using a 'gold standard' to ascertain true disease status on all subjects in a population of interest. In practice, however, the gold standard may be too costly or invasive to be applied to all subjects, in which case a two-phase design is often employed. Phase 1 data consisting of inexpensive and non-invasive screening tests on all study subjects are used to determine the subjects that receive the gold standard in the second phase. Naive estimates of prevalence in two-phase studies can be biased (verification bias). Imputation and re-weighting estimators are often used to avoid this bias. We contrast the forms and attributes of the various prevalence estimators. Distribution theory and simulation studies are used to investigate their bias and efficiency. We conclude that the semiparametric efficient approach is the preferred method for prevalence estimation in two-phase studies. It is more robust and comparable in its efficiency to imputation and other re-weighting estimators. It is also easy to implement. We use this approach to examine the prevalence of depression in adolescents with data from the Great Smoky Mountain Study.

  9. Surround-Masking Affects Visual Estimation Ability

    PubMed Central

    Jastrzebski, Nicola R.; Hugrass, Laila E.; Crewther, Sheila G.; Crewther, David P.

    2017-01-01

    Visual estimation of numerosity involves the discrimination of magnitude between two distributions or perceptual sets that vary in number of elements. How performance on such estimation depends on peripheral sensory stimulation is unclear, even in typically developing adults. Here, we varied the central and surround contrast of stimuli that comprised a visual estimation task in order to determine whether mechanisms involved with the removal of unessential visual input functionally contributes toward number acuity. The visual estimation judgments of typically developed adults were significantly impaired for high but not low contrast surround stimulus conditions. The center and surround contrasts of the stimuli also differentially affected the accuracy of numerosity estimation depending on whether fewer or more dots were presented. Remarkably, observers demonstrated the highest mean percentage accuracy across stimulus conditions in the discrimination of more elements when the surround contrast was low and the background luminance of the central region containing the elements was dark (black center). Conversely, accuracy was severely impaired during the discrimination of fewer elements when the surround contrast was high and the background luminance of the central region was mid level (gray center). These findings suggest that estimation ability is functionally related to the quality of low-order filtration of unessential visual information. These surround masking results may help understanding of the poor visual estimation ability commonly observed in developmental dyscalculia. PMID:28360845

  10. Prevalence estimates of overweight in Head Start preschoolers.

    PubMed

    Harbaugh, Bonnie L; Bounds, Wendy; Kolbo, Jerome; Molaison, Elaine; Zhang, Lei

    2009-10-01

    This study estimates prevalence of overweight and at risk of overweight among low-income predominately non-Hispanic Black Head Start Mississippi preschoolers. A two-stage stratified probability design produced a representative sample of 1,250 preschoolers aged 3 to 5 years. Height, weight, age, gender, and race data were obtained. The prevalence of overweight (20.6%) and at risk of overweight (17.9%) combined was 38.5%. Moreover, highest rates were found in boys, non-Hispanic Blacks, and 5-year-olds. The prevalence of overweight in Mississippi Head Start children exceeds national averages, reinforcing the need for early-childhood health promotion and prevention.

  11. The impact of fecal sample processing on prevalence estimates for antibiotic-resistant Escherichia coli.

    PubMed

    Omulo, Sylvia; Lofgren, Eric T; Mugoh, Maina; Alando, Moshe; Obiya, Joshua; Kipyegon, Korir; Kikwai, Gilbert; Gumbi, Wilson; Kariuki, Samuel; Call, Douglas R

    2017-05-01

    Investigators often rely on studies of Escherichia coli to characterize the burden of antibiotic resistance in a clinical or community setting. To determine if prevalence estimates for antibiotic resistance are sensitive to sample handling and interpretive criteria, we collected presumptive E. coli isolates (24 or 95 per stool sample) from a community in an urban informal settlement in Kenya. Isolates were tested for susceptibility to nine antibiotics using agar breakpoint assays and results were analyzed using generalized linear mixed models. We observed a <3-fold difference between prevalence estimates based on freshly isolated bacteria when compared to isolates collected from unprocessed fecal samples or fecal slurries that had been stored at 4°C for up to 7days. No time-dependence was evident (P>0.1). Prevalence estimates did not differ for five distinct E. coli colony morphologies on MacConkey agar plates (P>0.2). Successive re-plating of samples for up to five consecutive days had little to no impact on prevalence estimates. Finally, culturing E. coli under different conditions (with 5% CO2 or micro-aerobic) did not affect estimates of prevalence. For the conditions tested in these experiments, minor modifications in sample processing protocols are unlikely to bias estimates of the prevalence of antibiotic-resistance for fecal E. coli.

  12. An estimate of asthma prevalence in Africa: a systematic analysis

    PubMed Central

    Adeloye, Davies; Chan, Kit Yee; Rudan, Igor; Campbell, Harry

    2013-01-01

    Aim To estimate and compare asthma prevalence in Africa in 1990, 2000, and 2010 in order to provide information that will help inform the planning of the public health response to the disease. Methods We conducted a systematic search of Medline, EMBASE, and Global Health for studies on asthma published between 1990 and 2012. We included cross-sectional population based studies providing numerical estimates on the prevalence of asthma. We calculated weighted mean prevalence and applied an epidemiological model linking age with the prevalence of asthma. The UN population figures for Africa for 1990, 2000, and 2010 were used to estimate the cases of asthma, each for the respective year. Results Our search returned 790 studies. We retained 45 studies that met our selection criteria. In Africa in 1990, we estimated 34.1 million asthma cases (12.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 7.2-16.9) among children <15 years, 64.9 million (11.8%; 95% CI 7.9-15.8) among people aged <45 years, and 74.4 million (11.7%; 95% CI 8.2-15.3) in the total population. In 2000, we estimated 41.3 million cases (12.9%; 95% CI 8.7-17.0) among children <15 years, 82.4 million (12.5%; 95% CI 5.9-19.1) among people aged <45 years, and 94.8 million (12.0%; 95% CI 5.0-18.8) in the total population. This increased to 49.7 million (13.9%; 95% CI 9.6-18.3) among children <15 years, 102.9 million (13.8%; 95% CI 6.2-21.4) among people aged <45 years, and 119.3 million (12.8%; 95% CI 8.2-17.1) in the total population in 2010. There were no significant differences between asthma prevalence in studies which ascertained cases by written and video questionnaires. Crude prevalences of asthma were, however, consistently higher among urban than rural dwellers. Conclusion Our findings suggest an increasing prevalence of asthma in Africa over the past two decades. Due to the paucity of data, we believe that the true prevalence of asthma may still be under-estimated. There is a need for national governments in Africa

  13. Seasonal affective disorder in college students: prevalence and latitude.

    PubMed

    Low, K G; Feissner, J M

    1998-11-01

    The Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire and the Beck Depression Inventory were used to evaluate a convenience sample of college students in northern New England for winter seasonal affective disorder (SAD) and subsyndromal SAD. Seventy-six students filled out the questionnaire and the inventory in mid-fall, then completed the inventory again in mid-February. The students who had moved from southern latitudes to northern New England were the most likely to experience increased depression in winter. Prevalence rates for SAD and sub-SAD combined (winter 13.2 and 19.7%, respectively) were slightly higher than those reported in previous research. The prevalence of SAD was also higher in female students, which was consistent with findings in previous research.

  14. Prevalence of Axial Spondylarthritis in the United States: Estimates From a Cross-Sectional Survey

    PubMed Central

    REVEILLE, JOHN D.; WITTER, JAMES P.; WEISMAN, MICHAEL H.

    2014-01-01

    Objective The US national prevalence of spondylarthritis (SpA) was estimated for 2 published sets of classification criteria: the Amor criteria and the European Spondylarthropathy Study Group (ESSG) criteria. These 2 SpA criteria sets have been the most widely utilized in previous population-based studies of SpA. Methods The US SpA prevalence estimates were based on a representative sample of 5,013 US adults ages 20 – 69 years who were examined in the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2009–2010. Results The overall age-adjusted prevalence of definite and probable SpA by the Amor criteria was 0.9% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.7–1.1%), corresponding to an estimated 1.7 million persons (95% CI 1.4–2.1 million persons). The age-adjusted prevalence of SpA by the ESSG criteria was 1.4% (95% CI 1.0–1.9%), corresponding to an estimated 2.7 million persons (95% CI 1.9–3.7 million persons). There were no statistically significant sex differences in SpA prevalence. The SpA prevalence among non-Hispanic white persons was 1.0% (95% CI 0.7–1.5%) by the Amor criteria and 1.5% (95% CI 1.0–2.3%) by the ESSG criteria. SpA prevalence could not be reliably estimated in other race/ethnicity subgroups due to sample size imitations. Conclusion The SpA prevalence estimates are in the range of SpA prevalence estimates reported elsewhere in population-based surveys and it is likely that SpA may affect up to 1% of US adults, a prevalence similar to that reported for rheumatoid arthritis. The current US SpA prevalence estimates may be lower than the true value because the NHANES 2009–2010 data collection did not capture a complete set of the elements specified in the 2 SpA criteria sets. PMID:22275150

  15. Predicting individual affect of health interventions to reduce HPV prevalence.

    PubMed

    Corley, Courtney D; Mihalcea, Rada; Mikler, Armin R; Sanfilippo, Antonio P

    2011-01-01

    Recently, human papilloma virus (HPV) has been implicated to cause several throat and oral cancers and HPV is established to cause most cervical cancers. A human papilloma virus vaccine has been proven successful to reduce infection incidence in FDA clinical trials, and it is currently available in the USA. Current intervention policy targets adolescent females for vaccination; however, the expansion of suggested guidelines may extend to other age groups and males as well. This research takes a first step toward automatically predicting personal beliefs, regarding health intervention, on the spread of disease. Using linguistic or statistical approaches, sentiment analysis determines a text's affective content. Self-reported HPV vaccination beliefs published in web and social media are analyzed for affect polarity and leveraged as knowledge inputs to epidemic models. With this in mind, we have developed a discrete-time model to facilitate predicting impact on the reduction of HPV prevalence due to arbitrary age- and gender-targeted vaccination schemes.

  16. Predicting Individual Affect of Health Interventions to Reduce HPV Prevalence

    SciTech Connect

    Corley, Courtney D.; Mihalcea, Rada; Mikler, Armin R.; Sanfilippo, Antonio P.

    2011-04-01

    Recently, human papilloma virus has been implicated to cause several throat and oral cancers and hpv is established to cause most cervical cancers. A human papilloma virus vaccine has been proven successful to reduce infection incidence in FDA clinical trials and it is currently available in the United States. Current intervention policy targets adolescent females for vaccination; however, the expansion of suggested guidelines may extend to other age groups and males as well. This research takes a first step towards automatically predicting personal beliefs, regarding health intervention, on the spread of disease. Using linguistic or statistical approaches, sentiment analysis determines a texts affective content. Self-reported HPV vaccination beliefs published in web and social media are analyzed for affect polarity and leveraged as knowledge inputs to epidemic models. With this in mind, we have developed a discrete-time model to facilitate predicting impact on the reduction of HPV prevalence due to arbitrary age and gender targeted vaccination schemes.

  17. Setting criterion thresholds for estimating prevalence: what is being validated?

    PubMed

    Gambino, Blase

    2014-09-01

    Much of the debate over how best to estimate the prevalence of problem gambling in the general population is driven by a number of misconceptions, misinterpretations, and questionable, sometimes erroneous assumptions. Among the latter is the failure to understand that what is being validated is not the test but the interpretation of test scores for a specific purpose. In addition there has been a lack of attention to defining the clinical and/or epidemiologic relevance of case definitions in terms of severity and other clinical attributes, a misunderstanding of how test values are interpreted when criterion thresholds or cut-off points are selected, and a failure to replicate the validation of criterion thresholds for defining cases of problem gambling. It is argued further that the distinction between dichotomy and continuum is a false choice, and any emphasis on overestimation is misdirected. Alternative methods for evaluating tests and estimating prevalence are described and a pragmatic empirical approach to the interpretation of prevalence estimates is recommended.

  18. Prevalence and correlates of binge eating in seasonal affective disorder.

    PubMed

    Donofry, Shannon D; Roecklein, Kathryn A; Rohan, Kelly J; Wildes, Jennifer E; Kamarck, Marissa L

    2014-06-30

    Eating pathology in Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) may be more severe than hyperphagia during winter. Although research has documented elevated rates of subclinical binge eating in women with SAD, the prevalence and correlates of binge eating disorder (BED) in SAD remain largely uncharacterized. We examined the prevalence and correlates of binge eating, weekly binge eating with distress, and BED as defined by the DSM-IV-TR in SAD. We also tested whether binge eating exhibits a seasonal pattern among individuals with BED. Two samples were combined to form a sample of individuals with SAD (N=112). A third sample included non-depressed adults with clinical (n=12) and subclinical (n=11) BED. All participants completed the Questionnaire of Eating and Weight Patterns-Revised (QEWP-R) and modified Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire (M-SPAQ). In the SAD sample, 26.5% reported binge eating, 11.6% met criteria for weekly binge eating with distress, and 8.9% met criteria for BED. Atypical symptom severity predicted binge eating and BED. In the BED sample, 30% endorsed seasonal worsening of mood, and 26% reported a winter pattern of binge eating. The spectrum of eating pathology in SAD includes symptoms of BED, which are associated with atypical depression symptoms, but typical depression symptoms.

  19. Estimating Disease Prevalence Using Inverse Binomial Pooled Testing

    PubMed Central

    Pritchard, Nicholas A.; Tebbs, Joshua M.

    2011-01-01

    Monitoring populations of hosts as well as insect vectors is an important part of agricultural and public health risk assessment. In applications where pathogen prevalence is likely low, it is common to test pools of subjects for the presence of infection, rather than to test subjects individually. This technique is known as pooled (group) testing. In this paper, we revisit the problem of estimating the population prevalence p from pooled testing, but we consider applications where inverse binomial sampling is used. Our work is unlike previous research in pooled testing, which has largely assumed a binomial model. Inverse sampling is natural to implement when there is a need to report estimates early on in the data collection process and has been used in individual testing applications when disease incidence is low. We consider point and interval estimation procedures for p in this new pooled testing setting, and we use example data sets from the literature to describe and to illustrate our methods. PMID:21743789

  20. Gambling disorder: estimated prevalence rates and risk factors in Macao.

    PubMed

    Wu, Anise M S; Lai, Mark H C; Tong, Kwok-Kit

    2014-12-01

    An excessive, problematic gambling pattern has been regarded as a mental disorder in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM) for more than 3 decades (American Psychiatric Association [APA], 1980). In this study, its latest prevalence in Macao (one of very few cities with legalized gambling in China and the Far East) was estimated with 2 major changes in the diagnostic criteria, suggested by the 5th edition of DSM (APA, 2013): (a) removing the "Illegal Act" criterion, and (b) lowering the threshold for diagnosis. A random, representative sample of 1,018 Macao residents was surveyed with a phone poll design in January 2013. After the 2 changes were adopted, the present study showed that the estimated prevalence rate of gambling disorder was 2.1% of the Macao adult population. Moreover, the present findings also provided empirical support to the application of these 2 recommended changes when assessing symptoms of gambling disorder among Chinese community adults. Personal risk factors of gambling disorder, namely being male, having low education, a preference for casino gambling, as well as high materialism, were identified.

  1. An estimate of the prevalence of epilepsy in Sub–Saharan Africa: A systematic analysis

    PubMed Central

    Paul, Abigail; Adeloye, Davies; George-Carey, Rhiannon; Kolčić, Ivana; Grant, Liz; Chan, Kit Yee

    2012-01-01

    Background Epilepsy is a leading serious neurological condition worldwide and has particularly significant physical, economic and social consequences in Sub–Saharan Africa. This paper aims to contribute to the understanding of epilepsy prevalence in this region and how this varies by age and sex so as to inform understanding of the disease characteristics as well as the development of infrastructure, services and policies. Methods A parallel systematic analysis of Medline, Embase and Global Health returned 32 studies that satisfied pre–defined quality criteria. Relevant data was extracted, tabulated and analyzed. We modelled the available information and used the UN population figures for Africa to determine the age–specific and overall burden of epilepsy. Results Active epilepsy was estimated to affect 4.4 million people in Sub–Saharan Africa, whilst lifetime epilepsy was estimated to affect 5.4 million. The prevalence of active epilepsy peaks in the 20–29 age group at 11.5/1000 and again in the 40–49 age group at 8.2/1000. The lowest prevalence value of 3.1/1000 is seen in the 60+ age group. This binomial pattern is also seen in both men and women, with the second peak more pronounced in women at 14.6/1000. Conclusion The high prevalence of epilepsy, especially in young adults, has important consequences for both the workforce and community structures. An estimation of disease burden would be a beneficial outcome of further research, as would research into appropriate methods of improving health care for and tackling discrimination against people with epilepsy. PMID:23289080

  2. The prevalence of diagnosed chronic conditions and multimorbidity in Australia: A method for estimating population prevalence from general practice patient encounter data

    PubMed Central

    Henderson, Joan; Miller, Graeme; Britt, Helena

    2017-01-01

    Objectives To estimate the prevalence of common chronic conditions and multimorbidity among patients at GP encounters and among people in the Australian population. To assess the extent to which use of each individual patient’s GP attendance over the previous year, instead of the average for their age-sex group, affects the precision of national population prevalence estimates of diagnosed chronic conditions. Design, setting and participants A sub-study (between November 2012 and March 2016) of the Bettering the Evaluation and Care of Health program, a continuous national study of GP activity. Each of 1,449 GPs provided data for about 30 consecutive patients (total 43,501) indicating for each, number of GP attendances in previous year and all diagnosed chronic conditions, using their knowledge of the patient, patient self-report, and patient's health record. Results Hypertension (26.5%) was the most prevalent diagnosed chronic condition among patients surveyed, followed by osteoarthritis (22.7%), hyperlipidaemia (16.6%), depression (16.3%), anxiety (11.9%), gastroesophageal reflux disease (GORD) (11.3%), chronic back pain (9.7%) and Type 2 diabetes (9.6%). After adjustment, we estimated population prevalence of hypertension as 12.4%, 9.5% osteoarthritis, 8.2% hyperlipidaemia, 8.0% depression, 5.8% anxiety and 5.2% asthma. Estimates were significantly lower than those derived using the previous method. About half (51.6%) the patients at GP encounters had two or more diagnosed chronic conditions and over one third (37.4%) had three or more. Population estimates were: 25.7% had two or more diagnosed chronic conditions and 15.8% had three or more. Conclusions Of the three approaches we have tested to date, this study provides the most accurate method for estimation of population prevalence of chronic conditions using the GP as an expert interviewer, by adjusting for each patient’s reported attendance. PMID:28278241

  3. Trends Affecting the Prevalence of Visual Impairment and Demand for Services.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kirchner, Corinne

    1999-01-01

    Discusses the prevalence of people with visual impairment and trends affecting prevalence, including increased overall populations and a growth in the older population, greater ability to preserve lives of high-risk populations, improved fitness, medical advances in prevention, expanding role of computers among other increasing visual demands, and…

  4. Estimation of the Prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorder in South Korea, Revisited

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pantelis, Peter C.; Kennedy, Daniel P.

    2016-01-01

    Two-phase designs in epidemiological studies of autism prevalence introduce methodological complications that can severely limit the precision of resulting estimates. If the assumptions used to derive the prevalence estimate are invalid or if the uncertainty surrounding these assumptions is not properly accounted for in the statistical inference…

  5. Small area estimates of smoking prevalence in London. Testing the effect of input data.

    PubMed

    Hermes, Kerstin; Poulsen, Michael

    2012-05-01

    Small area estimates (SAEs) can provide information about health behaviour at small area levels that is otherwise not available. Because of its increasing use by policy makers, more attention needs to be paid to the reliability of these estimates. This paper reports on smoking prevalence data generated for London at the neighbourhood level using spatial microsimulation modelling. We test the reliability of smoking prevalence estimates at the neighbourhood level using different input datasets. The paper further underlines the importance of estimating health behaviours at the small area level, particularly in diverse cities such as London, where estimation at the city level can mask significant spatial differences.

  6. Accuracy of selected techniques for estimating ice-affected streamflow

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walker, John F.

    1991-01-01

    This paper compares the accuracy of selected techniques for estimating streamflow during ice-affected periods. The techniques are classified into two categories - subjective and analytical - depending on the degree of judgment required. Discharge measurements have been made at three streamflow-gauging sites in Iowa during the 1987-88 winter and used to established a baseline streamflow record for each site. Using data based on a simulated six-week field-tip schedule, selected techniques are used to estimate discharge during the ice-affected periods. For the subjective techniques, three hydrographers have independently compiled each record. Three measures of performance are used to compare the estimated streamflow records with the baseline streamflow records: the average discharge for the ice-affected period, and the mean and standard deviation of the daily errors. Based on average ranks for three performance measures and the three sites, the analytical and subjective techniques are essentially comparable. For two of the three sites, Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis of variance detects significant differences among the three hydrographers for the subjective methods, indicating that the subjective techniques are less consistent than the analytical techniques. The results suggest analytical techniques may be viable tools for estimating discharge during periods of ice effect, and should be developed further and evaluated for sites across the United States.

  7. Estimating the prevalence of anaemia: a comparison of three methods.

    PubMed Central

    Sari, M.; de Pee, S.; Martini, E.; Herman, S.; Sugiatmi; Bloem, M. W.; Yip, R.

    2001-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine the most effective method for analysing haemoglobin concentrations in large surveys in remote areas, and to compare two methods (indirect cyanmethaemoglobin and HemoCue) with the conventional method (direct cyanmethaemoglobin). METHODS: Samples of venous and capillary blood from 121 mothers in Indonesia were compared using all three methods. FINDINGS: When the indirect cyanmethaemoglobin method was used the prevalence of anaemia was 31-38%. When the direct cyanmethaemoglobin or HemoCue method was used the prevalence was 14-18%. Indirect measurement of cyanmethaemoglobin had the highest coefficient of variation and the largest standard deviation of the difference between the first and second assessment of the same blood sample (10-12 g/l indirect measurement vs 4 g/l direct measurement). In comparison with direct cyanmethaemoglobin measurement of venous blood, HemoCue had the highest sensitivity (82.4%) and specificity (94.2%) when used for venous blood. CONCLUSIONS: Where field conditions and local resources allow it, haemoglobin concentration should be assessed with the direct cyanmethaemoglobin method, the gold standard. However, the HemoCue method can be used for surveys involving different laboratories or which are conducted in relatively remote areas. In very hot and humid climates, HemoCue microcuvettes should be discarded if not used within a few days of opening the container containing the cuvettes. PMID:11436471

  8. Spatially Interpolated Disease Prevalence Estimation Using Collateral Indicators of Morbidity and Ecological Risk

    PubMed Central

    Congdon, Peter

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers estimation of disease prevalence for small areas (neighbourhoods) when the available observations on prevalence are for an alternative partition of a region, such as service areas. Interpolation to neighbourhoods uses a kernel method extended to take account of two types of collateral information. The first is morbidity and service use data, such as hospital admissions, observed for neighbourhoods. Variations in morbidity and service use are expected to reflect prevalence. The second type of collateral information is ecological risk factors (e.g., pollution indices) that are expected to explain variability in prevalence in service areas, but are typically observed only for neighbourhoods. An application involves estimating neighbourhood asthma prevalence in a London health region involving 562 neighbourhoods and 189 service (primary care) areas. PMID:24129116

  9. A small area analysis estimating the prevalence of addiction to opioids in Barcelona, 1993

    PubMed Central

    Brugal, M. T.; Domingo-Salvany, A.; Maguire, A.; Cayla, J. A.; Villalbi, J. R.; Hartnoll, R.

    1999-01-01

    STUDY OBJECTIVE: To determine the distribution of opioid use prevalence in small areas and its relation with socioeconomic indicators. DESIGN: Capture-recapture was applied using data from the Barcelona Drug Information System for 1993 (treatment demands, hospital emergency room visits, deaths from heroin acute adverse reaction and pre-trial prison admissions). To avoid dependence between sources, a log-linear regression model with interactions was fitted. For small neighbourhoods, where capture-recapture estimates were not obtainable, the Heroin Problem Index (HPI) was used to predict prevalence rates from a regression model. The correlation between estimated opioid use prevalence by neighbourhoods and their socioeconomic level was computed. MAIN RESULTS: The city's estimated prevalence was 12.9 opioid addicts per 1000 inhabitants aged 15 to 44 years (95% CI: 10.1, 17.2), which represents 9176 persons. The highest rate was found in the inner city neighbourhood. Comparing rates obtained for each neighbourhood with their unemployment rates, a high correlation coefficient was obtained (r = 0.80, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The main contribution of this study is that of combining capture-recapture with the HPI to produce small area prevalence estimates, which would not have been possible using only one method. Areas with higher socioeconomic status showed proportionally low addiction prevalences, but in depressed areas, prevalences varied widely.   PMID:10562867

  10. Collecting baseline information for national morbidity alleviation programs: different methods to estimate lymphatic filariasis morbidity prevalence.

    PubMed

    Mathieu, Els; Amann, Josef; Eigege, Abel; Richards, Frank; Sodahlon, Yao

    2008-01-01

    The lymphatic filariasis elimination program aims not only to stop transmission, but also to alleviate morbidity. Although geographically limited morbidity projects exist, few have been implemented nationally. For advocacy and planning, the program coordinators need prevalence estimates that are currently rarely available. This article compares several approaches to estimate morbidity prevalence: (1) data routinely collected during mapping or sentinel site activities; (2) data collected during drug coverage surveys; and (3) alternative surveys. Data were collected in Plateau and Nasarawa States in Nigeria and in 6 districts in Togo. In both settings, we found that questionnaires seem to underestimate the morbidity prevalence compared with existing information collected through clinical examination. We suggest that program managers use the latter for advocacy and planning, but if not available, questionnaires to estimate morbidity prevalence can be added to existing surveys. Even though such data will most likely underestimate the real burden of disease, they can be useful in resource-limited settings.

  11. The prevalence of seasonal affective disorder (SAD) in Greenland is related to latitude.

    PubMed

    Kegel, Mogens; Dam, Henrik; Ali, Fatuma; Bjerregaard, Peter

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of seasonal affective disorder (SAD) in Greenlanders and Danes living at four different latitudes in Greenland. A Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire (SPAQ) was mailed to 6021 men and women between the ages of 18 and 59 years living in four different municipalities in Greenland. The recipients were randomly selected from the National Population Register. Approximately 9% of the respondents met the criteria for SAD, and the incidence of SAD varied between a southern municipality and three northern municipalities. The prevalence of SAD was particularly high in northern municipalities. No significant difference was found in the prevalence of SAD between Greenlanders and Danes. The results are comparable with other population studies that have reported a high prevalence of SAD in arctic areas. The clinical implications of our findings and the possibilities for introducing light therapy should be assessed in future studies.

  12. Estimating ice-affected streamflow by extended Kalman filtering

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holtschlag, D.J.; Grewal, M.S.

    1998-01-01

    An extended Kalman filter was developed to automate the real-time estimation of ice-affected streamflow on the basis of routine measurements of stream stage and air temperature and on the relation between stage and streamflow during open-water (ice-free) conditions. The filter accommodates three dynamic modes of ice effects: sudden formation/ablation, stable ice conditions, and eventual elimination. The utility of the filter was evaluated by applying it to historical data from two long-term streamflow-gauging stations, St. John River at Dickey, Maine and Platte River at North Bend, Nebr. Results indicate that the filter was stable and that parameters converged for both stations, producing streamflow estimates that are highly correlated with published values. For the Maine station, logarithms of estimated streamflows are within 8% of the logarithms of published values 87.2% of the time during periods of ice effects and within 15% 96.6% of the time. Similarly, for the Nebraska station, logarithms of estimated streamflows are within 8% of the logarithms of published values 90.7% of the time and within 15% 97.7% of the time. In addition, the correlation between temporal updates and published streamflows on days of direct measurements at the Maine station was 0.777 and 0.998 for ice-affected and open-water periods, respectively; for the Nebraska station, corresponding correlations were 0.864 and 0.997.

  13. The prevalence and profile of non-affective psychosis in the Nigerian Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing

    PubMed Central

    GUREJE, OYE; OLOWOSEGUN, OLUYOMI; ADEBAYO, KAZEEM; STEIN, DAN J.

    2010-01-01

    This study aimed to estimate the prevalence and correlates of non-affective psychosis among adult Nigerians. It was part of the Nigerian Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing and was conducted in 8 out of the 22 states in Nigeria, representing about 22% of the national population. Face-to-face interviews with adults aged 18 years and over were administered using the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview, version 3 (CIDI.3). Clinical reappraisal was conducted by clinicians on a subsample of respondents. The CIDI.3 was found to have acceptable agreement with clinician-administered assessments, with kappa values ranging between 0.52 to 0.72, respectively, for narrowly-defined and broad categories of non-affective psychosis. The lifetime prevalence of non-affective psychosis was 2.1%, with visual hallucinations being the most commonly reported symptom and delusions of reference the least. Non-affective psy-chosis was significantly more common among urban dwellers. Persons with non-affective psychosis were at elevated risk to report both lifetime and 12-month comorbid DSM-IV disorders as well as to experience impairment in basic and instrumental role functioning. Only a minority had received any treatment. PMID:20148161

  14. Obesity disparities among disadvantaged men: national adult male inmate prevalence pooled with non-incarcerated estimates, United States, 2002-2004.

    PubMed

    Houle, Brian

    2011-05-01

    Obesity prevalence among inmates in the United States is unknown. Since incarceration disproportionately affects minorities, excluding inmates from surveys may bias national obesity estimates. Including inmates may also help explain racial obesity disparities among men. This descriptive study summarizes obesity prevalence among US male inmates and analyzes the effect of incarceration on national prevalence estimates. Data for male inmates came from the 2002 Survey of Inmates in Local Jails and the 2004 Survey of Inmates in State and Federal Correctional Facilities. Data for the non-incarcerated US adult male population came from the 2004 National Health Interview Survey. Self-reported weight and height data were analyzed from men aged 25-59 years for all surveys (obesity equaled BMI ≥ 30.0 kg/m(2)). Pooled inmate obesity prevalence was less than non-incarcerated estimates across all race/ethnic-education subgroups. However, unlike non-incarcerated estimates, inmates had obesity disparities between Hispanics and non-Hispanic Whites. Merging inmate and non-incarcerated estimates lowered obesity prevalence among men aged 25-39 with lower education levels. Merged estimates showed a positive obesity gradient within Whites by education. This study indicates that the exclusion of inmates from national obesity estimates leads to overestimates in obesity prevalence, particularly for low SES White and Black men.

  15. Geostatistical Model-Based Estimates of Schistosomiasis Prevalence among Individuals Aged ≤20 Years in West Africa

    PubMed Central

    Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Garba, Amadou; Traoré, Mamadou S.; Ndir, Omar; Ratard, Raoult C.; Tchuem Tchuenté, Louis-Albert; Kristensen, Thomas K.; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2011-01-01

    Background Schistosomiasis is a water-based disease that is believed to affect over 200 million people with an estimated 97% of the infections concentrated in Africa. However, these statistics are largely based on population re-adjusted data originally published by Utroska and colleagues more than 20 years ago. Hence, these estimates are outdated due to large-scale preventive chemotherapy programs, improved sanitation, water resources development and management, among other reasons. For planning, coordination, and evaluation of control activities, it is essential to possess reliable schistosomiasis prevalence maps. Methodology We analyzed survey data compiled on a newly established open-access global neglected tropical diseases database (i) to create smooth empirical prevalence maps for Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium for individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa, including Cameroon, and (ii) to derive country-specific prevalence estimates. We used Bayesian geostatistical models based on environmental predictors to take into account potential clustering due to common spatially structured exposures. Prediction at unobserved locations was facilitated by joint kriging. Principal Findings Our models revealed that 50.8 million individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa are infected with either S. mansoni, or S. haematobium, or both species concurrently. The country prevalence estimates ranged between 0.5% (The Gambia) and 37.1% (Liberia) for S. mansoni, and between 17.6% (The Gambia) and 51.6% (Sierra Leone) for S. haematobium. We observed that the combined prevalence for both schistosome species is two-fold lower in Gambia than previously reported, while we found an almost two-fold higher estimate for Liberia (58.3%) than reported before (30.0%). Our predictions are likely to overestimate overall country prevalence, since modeling was based on children and adolescents up to the age of 20 years who are at highest risk of infection. Conclusion/Significance We

  16. Estimating Contraceptive Prevalence Using Logistics Data for Short-Acting Methods: Analysis Across 30 Countries

    PubMed Central

    Cunningham, Marc; Brown, Niquelle; Sacher, Suzy; Hatch, Benjamin; Inglis, Andrew; Aronovich, Dana

    2015-01-01

    Background: Contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) is a vital indicator used by country governments, international donors, and other stakeholders for measuring progress in family planning programs against country targets and global initiatives as well as for estimating health outcomes. Because of the need for more frequent CPR estimates than population-based surveys currently provide, alternative approaches for estimating CPRs are being explored, including using contraceptive logistics data. Methods: Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in 30 countries, population data from the United States Census Bureau International Database, and logistics data from the Procurement Planning and Monitoring Report (PPMR) and the Pipeline Monitoring and Procurement Planning System (PipeLine), we developed and evaluated 3 models to generate country-level, public-sector contraceptive prevalence estimates for injectable contraceptives, oral contraceptives, and male condoms. Models included: direct estimation through existing couple-years of protection (CYP) conversion factors, bivariate linear regression, and multivariate linear regression. Model evaluation consisted of comparing the referent DHS prevalence rates for each short-acting method with the model-generated prevalence rate using multiple metrics, including mean absolute error and proportion of countries where the modeled prevalence rate for each method was within 1, 2, or 5 percentage points of the DHS referent value. Results: For the methods studied, family planning use estimates from public-sector logistics data were correlated with those from the DHS, validating the quality and accuracy of current public-sector logistics data. Logistics data for oral and injectable contraceptives were significantly associated (P<.05) with the referent DHS values for both bivariate and multivariate models. For condoms, however, that association was only significant for the bivariate model. With the exception of the CYP

  17. Methodology significantly affects genome size estimates: quantitative evidence using bryophytes.

    PubMed

    Bainard, Jillian D; Fazekas, Aron J; Newmaster, Steven G

    2010-08-01

    Flow cytometry (FCM) is commonly used to determine plant genome size estimates. Methodology has improved and changed during the past three decades, and researchers are encouraged to optimize protocols for their specific application. However, this step is typically omitted or undescribed in the current plant genome size literature, and this omission could have serious consequences for the genome size estimates obtained. Using four bryophyte species (Brachythecium velutinum, Fissidens taxifolius, Hedwigia ciliata, and Thuidium minutulum), three methodological approaches to the use of FCM in plant genome size estimation were tested. These included nine different buffers (Baranyi's, de Laat's, Galbraith's, General Purpose, LB01, MgSO(4), Otto's, Tris.MgCl(2), and Woody Plant), seven propidium iodide (PI) staining periods (5, 10, 15, 20, 45, 60, and 120 min), and six PI concentrations (10, 25, 50, 100, 150, and 200 microg ml(-1)). Buffer, staining period and staining concentration all had a statistically significant effect (P = 0.05) on the genome size estimates obtained for all four species. Buffer choice and PI concentration had the greatest effect, altering the 1C-values by as much as 8% and 14%, respectively. As well, the quality of the data varied with the different methodology used. Using the methodology determined to be the most accurate in this study (LB01 buffer and PI staining for 20 min at 150 microg ml(-1)), three new genome size estimates were obtained: B. velutinum: 0.46 pg, H. ciliata: 0.30 pg, and T. minutulum: 0.46 pg. While the peak quality of flow cytometry histograms is important, researchers must consider that changes in methodology can also affect the relative peak positions and therefore the genome size estimates obtained for plants using FCM.

  18. Estimating HIV incidence among key affected populations in China from serial cross-sectional surveys in 2010–2014

    PubMed Central

    Cui, Yan; Guo, Wei; Li, Dongmin; Wang, Liyan; Shi, Cynthia X; Brookmeyer, Ron; Detels, Roger; Ge, Lin; Ding, Zhengwei; Wu, Zunyou

    2016-01-01

    Introduction HIV incidence is an important measure for monitoring the development of the epidemic, but it is difficult to ascertain. We combined serial HIV prevalence and mortality data to estimate HIV incidence among key affected populations (KAPs) in China. Methods Serial cross-sectional surveys were conducted among KAPs from 2010 to 2014. Trends in HIV prevalence were assessed by the Cochran-Armitage test, adjusted by risk group. HIV incidence was estimated from a mathematical model that describes the relationship between changes in HIV incidence with HIV prevalence and mortality. Results The crude HIV prevalence for the survey samples remained stable at 1.1 to 1.2% from 2010 to 2014. Among drug users (DUs), HIV prevalence declined from 4.48 to 3.29% (p<0.0001), and among men who have sex with men (MSM), HIV prevalence increased from 5.73 to 7.75% (p<0.0001). Changes in HIV prevalence among female sex workers (FSWs) and male patients of sexually transmitted disease clinics were more modest but remained statistically significant (all p<0.0001). The MSM population had the highest incidence estimates at 0.74% in 2011, 0.59% in 2012, 0.57% in 2013 and 0.53% in 2014. Estimates of the annual incidence for DUs and FSWs were very low and may not be reliable. Conclusions Serial cross-sectional prevalence data from representative samples may be another approach to construct approximate estimates of national HIV incidence among key populations. We observed that the MSM population had the highest incidence for HIV among high-risk groups in China, and we suggest that interventions targeting MSM are urgently needed to curb the growing HIV epidemic. PMID:26989062

  19. Deforestation does not affect the prevalence of a common trypanosome in African birds.

    PubMed

    Valkiūnas, Gediminas; Iezhova, Tatjana A; Sehgal, Ravinder N M

    2016-10-01

    In spite of numerous reports of avian Trypanosoma spp. in birds throughout the world, patterns of the distribution and prevalence of these blood parasites remains insufficiently understood. It is clear that spatial heterogeneity influences parameters of parasite distributions in natural populations, but data regarding avian trypanosomes are scarce. Using microscopy and molecular diagnostic methods, we analysed the variation of prevalence of avian Trypanosoma parasites in two widespread African bird species, the yellow-whiskered greenbul Andropadus latirostris and the olive sunbird Cyanomitra olivacea. In all, 353 birds were captured in pristine forests and agroforest sites in Cameroon and Ghana. Overall, the prevalence of avian trypanosomes was 51.3%. Five morphospecies were reported (Trypanosoma everetti, T. anguiformis, T. avium, T. naviformis, T. ontarioensis). Trypanosoma everetti predominated, representing 98% of all Trypanosoma spp. reports, and it was present in both avian hosts. The prevalence of T. everetti was significantly less in the yellow-whiskered greenbul (19%) than olive sunbird (83%), and the same pattern of prevalence was reported in these avian hosts at different study sites. We found no interaction between sites and the prevalence of T. everetti. For both avian hosts, the prevalence did not differ significantly between pristine forests and agroforests. This indicates the same pattern of transmission at sites with different levels of deforestation and suggests that spatial heterogeneity related to deforestation does not affect the prevalence of avian Trypanosoma infections. It is likely that host-related factors, but not environmental conditions favour or reduce these parasite infections in forests of sub-Saharan Africa. Microscopic and PCR-based diagnostics showed the same sensitivity in diagnostics of T. everetti. We discuss the implications of these findings for the epidemiology of avian trypanosomiasis in natural populations.

  20. Driver secondary tasks in Germany: using interviews to estimate prevalence.

    PubMed

    Huemer, Anja Katharina; Vollrath, Mark

    2011-09-01

    Secondary tasks while driving are frequently found in different types of studies from all over the world. For a profound understanding of secondary tasks' impact on road safety it is essential to know in detail what kind of tasks drivers are doing in which situations. In contrast to costly observational studies, interviews may be a suitable access to these data if reporting biases are minimized. In 2009, 289 drivers were interviewed in face-to-face interviews on German motorway service areas as well as in the city of Braunschweig about their secondary task engagement in the last 30 min of driving. Five groups of drivers were examined: (1) truck drivers at the motorway (N=90), (2) car drivers on private trips at the motorway (N=71), (3) car drivers on business trips at the motorway (N=29), (4) car drivers on private trips in town (N=85), (5) car drivers on business trips in town (N=12). The pattern and frequency of engagement in secondary tasks differed between these groups. Overall, about 80% of all drivers conducted one to three secondary tasks. Thus, secondary task engagement is a serious issue in Germany and accident studies are needed to estimate drivers' risk.

  1. ADHD prevalence estimates across three decades: an updated systematic review and meta-regression analysis

    PubMed Central

    Polanczyk, Guilherme V; Willcutt, Erik G; Salum, Giovanni A; Kieling, Christian; Rohde, Luis A

    2014-01-01

    Background: Previous studies have identified significant variability in attention-deficit / hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) prevalence estimates worldwide, largely explained by methodological procedures. However, increasing rates of ADHD diagnosis and treatment throughout the past few decades have fuelled concerns about whether the true prevalence of the disorder has increased over time. Methods: We updated the two most comprehensive systematic reviews on ADHD prevalence available in the literature. Meta-regression analyses were conducted to test the effect of year of study in the context of both methodological variables that determined variability in ADHD prevalence (diagnostic criteria, impairment criterion and source of information), and the geographical location of studies. Results: We identified 154 original studies and included 135 in the multivariate analysis. Methodological procedures investigated were significantly associated with heterogeneity of studies. Geographical location and year of study were not associated with variability in ADHD prevalence estimates. Conclusions: Confirming previous findings, variability in ADHD prevalence estimates is mostly explained by methodological characteristics of the studies. In the past three decades, there has been no evidence to suggest an increase in the number of children in the community who meet criteria for ADHD when standardized diagnostic procedures are followed. PMID:24464188

  2. A door-to-door survey to estimate the prevalence of Parkinsonism in Pakistan

    PubMed Central

    Khan, Suliman; Nabi, Ghulam; Naeem, Muhammad; Ali, Liaqat; Silburn, Peter A; Mellick, George D

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Parkinson’s disease (PD) occurs in all races and cultures, and population-related differences in frequency may provide etiological clues. The present study was designed to explore the prevalence of PD and Parkinsonism in Pakistan, the world’s sixth most populous country, for which no published prevalence data are available. Methods We conducted a three-phase door-to-door survey in two districts of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan, to assess the prevalence of PD and Parkinsonism in a sample of 4,000 individuals aged 50 years and above. Results We identified 14 cases of Parkinsonism, eleven with a diagnosis of idiopathic PD. The overall prevalence estimates were 1.7/100 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.9–2.46) for Parkinsonism and 1.28/100 (95% CI: 0.6–1.94) for PD in persons aged 65 years and above. The age-standardized prevalence of PD (aged 65 years and above), normalized to the USA population in 2000, was 1.33/100, which is similar to that observed in other human populations. Of the total 14 cases, five were newly diagnosed and four had a family history of PD. Conclusion The estimated prevalence rates in Pakistan are similar to those observed in other human populations. The frequency of familial Parkinsonism is also equivalent to previous estimates. PMID:27382292

  3. Estimating the prevalence of breast cancer using a disease model: data problems and trends.

    PubMed

    Kruijshaar, Michelle E; Barendregt, Jan J; Van De Poll-Franse, Lonneke V

    2003-04-14

    BACKGROUND: Health policy and planning depend on quantitative data of disease epidemiology. However, empirical data are often incomplete or are of questionable validity. Disease models describing the relationship between incidence, prevalence and mortality are used to detect data problems or supplement missing data. Because time trends in the data affect their outcome, we compared the extent to which trends and known data problems affected model outcome for breast cancer. METHODS: We calculated breast cancer prevalence from Dutch incidence and mortality data (the Netherlands Cancer Registry and Statistics Netherlands) and compared this to regionally available prevalence data (Eindhoven Cancer Registry, IKZ). Subsequently, we recalculated the model adjusting for 1) limitations of the prevalence data, 2) a trend in incidence, 3) secondary primaries, and 4) excess mortality due to non-breast cancer deaths. RESULTS: There was a large discrepancy between calculated and IKZ prevalence, which could be explained for 60% by the limitations of the prevalence data plus the trend in incidence. Secondary primaries and excess mortality had relatively small effects only (explaining 17% and 6%, respectively), leaving a smaller part of the difference unexplained. CONCLUSION: IPM models can be useful both for checking data inconsistencies and for supplementing incomplete data, but their results should be interpreted with caution. Unknown data problems and trends may affect the outcome and in the absence of additional data, expert opinion is the only available judge.

  4. The Lifetime Prevalence of Anabolic-Androgenic Steroid Use and Dependence in Americans: Current Best Estimates

    PubMed Central

    Pope, Harrison G.; Kanayama, Gen; Athey, Alison; Ryan, Erin; Hudson, James I.; Baggish, Aaron

    2013-01-01

    Background and Objectives Although various surveys have tracked the prevalence of anabolic-androgenic steroid (AAS) use in American teenagers and young adults, no recent surveys have assessed the lifetime prevalence of AAS use in Americans overall. We therefore analyzed serial youth-survey data to derive estimates of the lifetime prevalence of AAS use in the current American general population. Methods We first determined the distribution of age of onset of AAS use, based on pooled data from nine studies. Using this distribution, we then developed equations to project the eventual lifetime prevalence of AAS use among young survey respondents, once they aged and completed the period of risk for initiating AAS. We similarly calculated the denominator of lifetimes of risk for AAS use in the total American population. We next applied these equations to four independent national youth datasets to derive current American general-population estimates for lifetime AAS use. Finally, using data from 10 pooled studies, we estimated the lifetime prevalence of AAS dependence among AAS users. Results Age-of-onset studies consistently showed that AAS use begins later than most drugs, with only 22% of users (95% confidence interval: 19%–25%) starting before age 20. Applying the age-of-onset findings to national youth datasets, we estimated that among Americans currently age 13 to 50 years, 2.9–4.0 million have used AAS. Within this group, roughly 1 million may have experienced AAS dependence. Conclusions and Scientific Significance Although subject to various limitations, our estimation techniques suggest a surprisinigly high prevalence of AAS use and dependence among Americans. PMID:24112239

  5. Prevalence of hospitalized live births affected by alcohol and drugs and parturient women diagnosed with substance abuse at liveborn delivery: United States, 1999-2008.

    PubMed

    Pan, I-Jen; Yi, Hsiao-ye

    2013-05-01

    To describe prevalence trends in hospitalized live births affected by placental transmission of alcohol and drugs, as well as prevalence trends among parturient women hospitalized for liveborn delivery and diagnosed with substance abuse problems in the United States from 1999 to 2008. Comparison of the two sets of trends helps determine whether the observed changes in neonatal problems over time were caused by shifts in maternal substance abuse problems. This study independently identified hospitalized live births and maternal live born deliveries from discharge records in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, one of the largest hospital administrative databases. Substance-related diagnosis codes on the records were used to identify live births affected by alcohol and drugs and parturient women with substance abuse problems. The analysis calculated prevalence differences and percentage changes over the 10 years, with Loess curves fitted to 10-year prevalence estimates to depict trend patterns. Linear and quadratic trends in prevalence were simultaneously tested using logistic regression analyses. The study also examined data on costs, primary expected payer, and length of hospital stays. From 1999 to 2008, prevalence increased for narcotic- and hallucinogen-affected live births and neonatal drug withdrawal syndrome but decreased for alcohol- and cocaine-affected live births. Maternal substance abuse at delivery showed similar trends, but prevalence of alcohol abuse remained relatively stable. Substance-affected live births required longer hospital stays and higher medical expenses, mostly billable to Medicaid. The findings highlight the urgent need for behavioral intervention and early treatment for substance-abusing pregnant women to reduce the number of substance-affected live births.

  6. Sampling frequency affects estimates of annual nitrous oxide fluxes

    PubMed Central

    Barton, L.; Wolf, B.; Rowlings, D.; Scheer, C.; Kiese, R.; Grace, P.; Stefanova, K.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes, a potent greenhouse gas, from soils is necessary to improve our knowledge of terrestrial N2O losses. Developing universal sampling frequencies for calculating annual N2O fluxes is difficult, as fluxes are renowned for their high temporal variability. We demonstrate daily sampling was largely required to achieve annual N2O fluxes within 10% of the ‘best’ estimate for 28 annual datasets collected from three continents—Australia, Europe and Asia. Decreasing the regularity of measurements either under- or overestimated annual N2O fluxes, with a maximum overestimation of 935%. Measurement frequency was lowered using a sampling strategy based on environmental factors known to affect temporal variability, but still required sampling more than once a week. Consequently, uncertainty in current global terrestrial N2O budgets associated with the upscaling of field-based datasets can be decreased significantly using adequate sampling frequencies. PMID:26522228

  7. Sampling frequency affects estimates of annual nitrous oxide fluxes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barton, L.; Wolf, B.; Rowlings, D.; Scheer, C.; Kiese, R.; Grace, P.; Stefanova, K.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.

    2015-11-01

    Quantifying nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes, a potent greenhouse gas, from soils is necessary to improve our knowledge of terrestrial N2O losses. Developing universal sampling frequencies for calculating annual N2O fluxes is difficult, as fluxes are renowned for their high temporal variability. We demonstrate daily sampling was largely required to achieve annual N2O fluxes within 10% of the ‘best’ estimate for 28 annual datasets collected from three continents—Australia, Europe and Asia. Decreasing the regularity of measurements either under- or overestimated annual N2O fluxes, with a maximum overestimation of 935%. Measurement frequency was lowered using a sampling strategy based on environmental factors known to affect temporal variability, but still required sampling more than once a week. Consequently, uncertainty in current global terrestrial N2O budgets associated with the upscaling of field-based datasets can be decreased significantly using adequate sampling frequencies.

  8. Satellite-based Estimates of Ambient Air Pollution and Global Variations in Childhood Asthma Prevalence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, H. Ross; Butland, Barbara K.; Donkelaar, Aaron Matthew Van; Brauer, Michael; Strachan, David P.; Clayton, Tadd; van Dingenen, Rita; Amann, Marcus; Brunekreef, Bert; Cohen, Aaron; Dentener, Frank; Lai, Christopher; Lamsal, Lok N.; Martin, Randall V.

    2012-01-01

    Background: The effect of ambient air pollution on global variations and trends in asthma prevalence is unclear. Objectives: Our goal was to investigate community-level associations between asthma prevalence data from the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) and satellite-based estimates of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and modelled estimates of ozone. Methods: We assigned satellite-based estimates of PM2.5 and NO2 at a spatial resolution of 0.1deg × 0.1deg and modeled estimates of ozone at a resolution of 1deg × 1deg to 183 ISAAC centers. We used center-level prevalence of severe asthma as the outcome and multilevel models to adjust for gross national income (GNI) and center- and country-level sex, climate, and population density. We examined associations (adjusting for GNI) between air pollution and asthma prevalence over time in centers with data from ISAAC Phase One (mid-1900s) and Phase Three (2001-2003). Results: For the 13- to 14-year age group (128 centers in 28 countries), the estimated average within-country change in center-level asthma prevalence per 100 children per 10% increase in center-level PM2.5 and NO2 was -0.043 [95% confidence interval (CI): -0.139, 0.053] and 0.017 (95% CI: -0.030, 0.064) respectively. For ozone the estimated change in prevalence per parts per billion by volume was -0.116 (95% CI: -0.234, 0.001). Equivalent results for the 6- to 7-year age group (83 centers in 20 countries), though slightly different, were not significantly positive. For the 13- to 14-year age group, change in center-level asthma prevalence over time per 100 children per 10% increase in PM2.5 from Phase One to Phase Three was -0.139 (95% CI: -0.347, 0.068). The corresponding association with ozone (per ppbV) was -0.171 (95% CI: -0.275, -0.067). Conclusion: In contrast to reports from within-community studies of individuals exposed to traffic pollution, we did not find

  9. Estimated Prevalence of People with Cognitive Impairment: Results from Nationally Representative Community and Institutional Surveys

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bernstein, Amy B.; Remsburg, Robin E.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: We address how the national prevalence of cognitive impairment can be estimated from two nationally representative surveys. Design and Methods: Data are from the 1999-2001 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the 1999 National Nursing Home Survey (NNHS). The NHIS represents all community-dwelling people living in the United States,…

  10. Prevalence Estimates of Health Risk Behaviors of Immigrant Latino Men Who Have Sex with Men

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rhodes, Scott D.; McCoy, Thomas P.; Hergenrather, Kenneth C.; Vissman, Aaron T.; Wolfson, Mark; Alonzo, Jorge; Bloom, Fred R.; Alegria-Ortega, Jose; Eng, Eugenia

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: Little is known about the health status of rural immigrant Latino men who have sex with men (MSM). These MSM comprise a subpopulation that tends to remain "hidden" from both researchers and practitioners. This study was designed to estimate the prevalence of tobacco, alcohol, and drug use, and sexual risk behaviors of Latino MSM…

  11. EEG-based workload estimation across affective contexts

    PubMed Central

    Mühl, Christian; Jeunet, Camille; Lotte, Fabien

    2014-01-01

    Workload estimation from electroencephalographic signals (EEG) offers a highly sensitive tool to adapt the human–computer interaction to the user state. To create systems that reliably work in the complexity of the real world, a robustness against contextual changes (e.g., mood), has to be achieved. To study the resilience of state-of-the-art EEG-based workload classification against stress we devise a novel experimental protocol, in which we manipulated the affective context (stressful/non-stressful) while the participant solved a task with two workload levels. We recorded self-ratings, behavior, and physiology from 24 participants to validate the protocol. We test the capability of different, subject-specific workload classifiers using either frequency-domain, time-domain, or both feature varieties to generalize across contexts. We show that the classifiers are able to transfer between affective contexts, though performance suffers independent of the used feature domain. However, cross-context training is a simple and powerful remedy allowing the extraction of features in all studied feature varieties that are more resilient to task-unrelated variations in signal characteristics. Especially for frequency-domain features, across-context training is leading to a performance comparable to within-context training and testing. We discuss the significance of the result for neurophysiology-based workload detection in particular and for the construction of reliable passive brain–computer interfaces in general. PMID:24971046

  12. Prevalence Estimates of Health Risk Behaviors of Immigrant Latino Men Who Have Sex With Men

    PubMed Central

    Rhodes, Scott D.; McCoy, Thomas P.; Hergenrather, Kenneth C.; Vissman, Aaron T.; Wolfson, Mark; Alonzo, Jorge; Bloom, Fred R.; Alegría-Ortega, Jose; Eng, Eugenia

    2011-01-01

    Purpose Little is known about the health status of rural immigrant Latino men who have sex with men (MSM). These MSM comprise a subpopulation that tends to remain “hidden” from both researchers and practitioners. This study was designed to estimate the prevalence of tobacco, alcohol, and drug use, and sexual risk behaviors of Latino MSM living in rural North Carolina. Methods A community-based participatory research (CBPR) partnership used respondent-driven sampling (RDS) to identify, recruit, and enroll Latino MSM to participate in an interviewer-administered behavioral assessment. RDS weighted prevalence of risk behaviors was estimated using the RDS Analysis Tool. Data collection occurred in 2008. Results A total of 190 Latino MSM was reached; the average age was 25.5 years old and nearly 80% reported being from Mexico. Prevalence estimates of smoking everyday and past 30-day heavy episodic drinking were 6.5% and 35.0%, respectively. Prevalence estimates of past 12-month marijuana and cocaine use were 56.0% and 27.1%, respectively. Past 3-month prevalence estimates of sex with at least one woman, multiple male partners, and inconsistent condom use were 21.2%, 88.9%, and 54.1%, respectively. Conclusions Respondents had low rates of tobacco use and club drug use, and high rates of sexual risk behaviors. Although this study represents an initial step in documenting the health risk behaviors of immigrant Latino MSM who are part of a new trend in Latino immigration to the southeastern US, a need exists for further research, including longitudinal studies to understand the trajectory of risk behavior among immigrant Latino MSM. PMID:22236317

  13. Estimating Health Conditions for Small Areas: Asthma Symptom Prevalence for State Legislative Districts

    PubMed Central

    Mendez-Luck, Carolyn A; Yu, Hongjian; Meng, Ying-Ying; Jhawar, Mona; Wallace, Steven P

    2007-01-01

    Research Objective To create prevalence estimates of asthma symptoms for California legislative districts. Data Sources. Three main data sources were used for this study: 2001 California Health Interview Survey, 2000 Census, and 2000–2002 March Current Population Surveys. Study Design Secondary data analyses were conducted from cross-sectional data to distribute the joint probability of ever having an asthma diagnosis and symptoms in the last 12 months within an Assembly district. We applied hierarchical logistic regressions to estimate the parameters for selected survey and census data that predicted the probabilities of diagnosed asthmatics with asthma symptoms. Predictors included individual-level variables and contextual variables at zip code levels. Principal Findings Asthma symptom prevalence geographically varied by age within and across Assembly districts throughout California. Conclusions With modest investments in establishing analytic data files and estimating regression parameters for target conditions, small area estimation (SAE) procedures can create health data estimates not otherwise available at the sub-county level. Applying SAE procedures to asthma symptom prevalence suggest that these data can become essential reference tools for advocates and policy makers currently addressing this and other public health concerns in the state. PMID:17995549

  14. Accuracy of Herdsmen Reporting versus Serologic Testing for Estimating Foot-and-Mouth Disease Prevalence

    PubMed Central

    Handel, Ian G.; Tanya, Vincent N.; Hamman, Saidou M.; Nfon, Charles; Bergman, Ingrid E.; Malirat, Viviana; Sorensen, Karl J.; Bronsvoort, Barend M. de C.

    2014-01-01

    Herdsman-reported disease prevalence is widely used in veterinary epidemiologic studies, especially for diseases with visible external lesions; however, the accuracy of such reports is rarely validated. Thus, we used latent class analysis in a Bayesian framework to compare sensitivity and specificity of herdsman reporting with virus neutralization testing and use of 3 nonstructural protein ELISAs for estimates of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) prevalence on the Adamawa plateau of Cameroon in 2000. Herdsman-reported estimates in this FMD-endemic area were comparable to those obtained from serologic testing. To harness to this cost-effective resource of monitoring emerging infectious diseases, we suggest that estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of herdsmen reporting should be done in parallel with serologic surveys of other animal diseases. PMID:25417556

  15. Semi-parametric estimation of age-time specific infection incidence from serial prevalence data.

    PubMed

    Nagelkerke, N; Heisterkamp, S; Borgdorff, M; Broekmans, J; Van Houwelingen, H

    1999-02-15

    Many infections cause lasting detectable immune responses, whose prevalence can be estimated from cross-sectional surveys. However, such surveys do not provide direct information on the incidence of infection. We address the issue of estimating age and time specific incidence from a series of prevalence surveys under the assumption that incidence changes exponentially with time, but make no assumption about the age specific incidence. We show that these assumptions lead to a proportional hazards model and estimate its parameters using semi-parametric maximum likelihood methods. The method is applied to tuberculin surveys in The Netherlands to explore age dependence of the risk of tuberculous infection in the presence of a strong secular decline in this risk.

  16. Hidden diabetes in the UK: use of capture-recapture methods to estimate total prevalence of diabetes mellitus in an urban population.

    PubMed

    Gill, Geoffrey V; Ismail, Aziz A; Beeching, Nicholas J; Macfarlane, Sarah B J; Bellis, Mark A

    2003-07-01

    An early requirement of the UK's Diabetes National Service Framework is enumeration of the total affected population. Existing estimates tend to be based on incomplete lists. In a study conducted over one year in North Liverpool, we compared crude prevalence rates for type 1 and type 2 diabetes with estimates obtained by capture-recapture (CR) analysis of multiple incomplete patient lists, to assess the extent of unascertained but diagnosed cases. Patient databases were constructed from six sources-a hospital diabetes centre; general practitioner registers; hospital admissions with a diagnosis of diabetes; a hospital diabetic retinal clinic; a research list of patients with diabetes admitted with stroke; and a local children's hospital. Log linear modelling was used to estimate missing cases, hence total prevalence. The crude prevalence of diabetes was 1.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.41, 1.52), compared with a CR-adjusted rate of 3.1% (CI 3.03, 3.19). Age-banded CR-adjusted prevalence was always higher in males than in females and the difference became more pronounced with increasing age. Among males, CR-adjusted prevalence rose from 0.4% at age 10-19 years to 18.3% at 80+ years; in females the corresponding figures were 0.4% and 9.3%. The gap between crude and CR-estimated prevalence points to a rate of 'hidden diabetes' that has substantial implications for future diabetes care.

  17. Evidence base for children affected by HIV and AIDS in low prevalence and concentrated epidemic countries: applicability to programming guidance from high prevalence countries.

    PubMed

    Franco, Lynne Miller; Burkhalter, Bart; de Wagt, Arjan; Jennings, Larissa; Kelley, Allison Gamble; Hammink, Marie-Eve

    2009-01-01

    As global commitment grows to protect and support children affected by HIV and AIDS, questions remain about how best to meet the needs of these children in low prevalence settings and whether information from high prevalence countries can appropriately guide programming in these settings. A 2007 search for the evidence in low prevalence settings on situational challenges of HIV and AIDS-affected children and interventions to address these challenges identified 413 documents. They were reviewed and judged for quality of documentation and scientific rigor. Information was compiled across eight types of challenges (health and health care, nutrition and food security, education, protection, placement, psychosocial development, socioeconomic status, and stigma/discrimination); and also assessed was strength of evidence for situational and intervention findings. Results were compared to three programming principles drawn from research in high prevalence countries: family-centered preventive efforts, treatment, and care; family-focused support to ensure capacity to care for and protect these children; and sustaining economic livelihood of HIV and AIDS-affected households. Findings show that children affected by HIV and AIDS in low prevalence settings face increased vulnerabilities similar to those in high prevalence settings. These findings support seeking and testing programmatic directions for interventions identified in high prevalence settings. However, low prevalence settings/countries are extremely diverse, and the strength of the evidence base among them was mixed (strong, moderate, and weak in study design and documentation), geographically limited, and had insufficient evidence on interventions to draw conclusions about how best to reduce additional vulnerabilities of affected children. Information on family, economic, sociocultural, and political factors within local contexts will be vital in the development of appropriate strategies to mitigate vulnerabilities.

  18. Estimating the Prevalence and Awareness Rates of Hypertension in Africa: A Systematic Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Adeloye, Davies; Basquill, Catriona

    2014-01-01

    Background The burden of hypertension is high in Africa, and due to rapid population growth and ageing, the exact burden on the continent is still far from being known. We aimed to estimate the prevalence and awareness rates of hypertension in Africa based on the cut off “≥140/90 mm Hg”. Methods We conducted a systematic search of Medline, EMBASE and Global Health. Search date was set from January 1980 to December 2013. We included population-based studies on hypertension, conducted among people aged ≥15 years and providing numerical estimates on the prevalence of hypertension in Africa. Overall pooled prevalence of hypertension in mixed, rural and urban settings in Africa were estimated from reported crude prevalence rates. A meta-regression epidemiological modelling, using United Nations population demographics for the years 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2030, was applied to determine the prevalence rates and number of cases of hypertension in Africa separately for these four years. Results Our search returned 7680 publications, 92 of which met the selection criteria. The overall pooled prevalence of hypertension in Africa was 19.7% in 1990, 27.4% in 2000 and 30.8% in 2010, each with a pooled awareness rate (expressed as percentage of hypertensive cases) of 16.9%, 29.2% and 33.7%, respectively. From the modelling, over 54.6 million cases of hypertension were estimated in 1990, 92.3 million cases in 2000, 130.2 million cases in 2010, and a projected increase to 216.8 million cases of hypertension by 2030; each with an age-adjusted prevalence of 19.1% (13.9, 25.5), 24.3% (23.3, 31.6), 25.9% (23.5, 34.0), and 25.3% (24.3, 39.7), respectively. Conclusion Our findings suggest the prevalence of hypertension is increasing in Africa, and many hypertensive individuals are not aware of their condition. We hope this research will prompt appropriate policy response towards improving the awareness, control and overall management of hypertension in Africa. PMID:25090232

  19. Estimating the Global Prevalence of Zinc Deficiency: Results Based on Zinc Availability in National Food Supplies and the Prevalence of Stunting

    PubMed Central

    Wessells, K. Ryan; Brown, Kenneth H.

    2012-01-01

    Background Adequate zinc nutrition is essential for adequate growth, immunocompetence and neurobehavioral development, but limited information on population zinc status hinders the expansion of interventions to control zinc deficiency. The present analyses were conducted to: (1) estimate the country-specific prevalence of inadequate zinc intake; and (2) investigate relationships between country-specific estimated prevalence of dietary zinc inadequacy and dietary patterns and stunting prevalence. Methodology and Principal Findings National food balance sheet data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Country-specific estimated prevalence of inadequate zinc intake were calculated based on the estimated absorbable zinc content of the national food supply, International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group estimated physiological requirements for absorbed zinc, and demographic data obtained from United Nations estimates. Stunting data were obtained from a recent systematic analysis based on World Health Organization growth standards. An estimated 17.3% of the world’s population is at risk of inadequate zinc intake. Country-specific estimated prevalence of inadequate zinc intake was negatively correlated with the total energy and zinc contents of the national food supply and the percent of zinc obtained from animal source foods, and positively correlated with the phytate: zinc molar ratio of the food supply. The estimated prevalence of inadequate zinc intake was correlated with the prevalence of stunting (low height-for-age) in children under five years of age (r = 0.48, P<0.001). Conclusions and Significance These results, which indicate that inadequate dietary zinc intake may be fairly common, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, allow inter-country comparisons regarding the relative likelihood of zinc deficiency as a public health problem. Data from these analyses should be used to determine the need for

  20. Using inpatient data to estimate the prevalence of Wegener's granulomatosis in China

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Xiao; Cui, Yazhou; Li, Yan; Wang, Chao; Zhao, Heng; Han, Jinxiang

    2016-01-01

    Summary China lacks a registry for most rare diseases, so specific epidemiological data on those diseases are lacking. A strategy involving the DISMOD II model was recently formulated to estimate the epidemiological parameters of rare diseases, and this strategy has been used to study several rare diseases. The current study used this strategy to estimate the prevalence of one such rare disease, Wegener's granulomatosis (WG), in China based on its incidence, mortality, and rate of remission according to the software tool DISMOD II. The incidence of WG was calculated based on inpatient data from 100 hospitals throughout China. The cause-specific mortality from WG was estimated based on data from the National Vital Statistics System of the United States and adjusted for the Chinese population. The rate of disease remission was based on the results of previous study. The current results indicated that the prevalence of WG in China is 1.94/100,000, which is slightly lower than that in Europe and the United States. The mean age at onset of WG in China was calculated to be 38.9 years for males and 39.3 years for females and the duration of disease was 28 years for both male and female patients. These figures are similar to published data from other countries. In conclusion, the DISMOD II model was used to estimate the prevalence of WG in China, providing a basis to evaluate the potential disease burden and orphan drug use by patients with WG. The DISMOD II model could be used to estimate the prevalence of other rare diseases. PMID:26989646

  1. Modelling bias in combining small area prevalence estimates from multiple surveys.

    PubMed

    Manzi, Giancarlo; Spiegelhalter, David J; Turner, Rebecca M; Flowers, Julian; Thompson, Simon G

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY: Combining information from multiple surveys can improve the quality of small area estimates. Customary approaches, such as the multiple-frame and statistical matching methods, require individual level data, whereas in practice often only multiple aggregate estimates are available. Commercial surveys usually produce such estimates without clear description of the methodology that is used. In this context, bias modelling is crucial, and we propose a series of Bayesian hierarchical models which allow for additive biases. Some of these models can also be fitted in a classical context, by using a mixed effects framework. We apply these methods to obtain estimates of smoking prevalence in local authorities across the east of England from seven surveys. All the surveys provide smoking prevalence estimates and confidence intervals at the local authority level, but they vary by time, sample size and transparency of methodology. Our models adjust for the biases in commercial surveys but incorporate information from all the sources to provide more accurate and precise estimates.

  2. Reliability of Nationwide Prevalence Estimates of Dementia: A Critical Appraisal Based on Brazilian Surveys

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background The nationwide dementia prevalence is usually calculated by applying the results of local surveys to countries’ populations. To evaluate the reliability of such estimations in developing countries, we chose Brazil as an example. We carried out a systematic review of dementia surveys, ascertained their risk of bias, and present the best estimate of occurrence of dementia in Brazil. Methods and Findings We carried out an electronic search of PubMed, Latin-American databases, and a Brazilian thesis database for surveys focusing on dementia prevalence in Brazil. The systematic review was registered at PROSPERO (CRD42014008815). Among the 35 studies found, 15 analyzed population-based random samples. However, most of them utilized inadequate criteria for diagnostics. Six studies without these limitations were further analyzed to assess the risk of selection, attrition, outcome and population bias as well as several statistical issues. All the studies presented moderate or high risk of bias in at least two domains due to the following features: high non-response, inaccurate cut-offs, and doubtful accuracy of the examiners. Two studies had limited external validity due to high rates of illiteracy or low income. The three studies with adequate generalizability and the lowest risk of bias presented a prevalence of dementia between 7.1% and 8.3% among subjects aged 65 years and older. However, after adjustment for accuracy of screening, the best available evidence points towards a figure between 15.2% and 16.3%. Conclusions The risk of bias may strongly limit the generalizability of dementia prevalence estimates in developing countries. Extrapolations that have already been made for Brazil and Latin America were based on a prevalence that should have been adjusted for screening accuracy or not used at all due to severe bias. Similar evaluations regarding other developing countries are needed in order to verify the scope of these limitations. PMID:26131563

  3. Overview of Celiac Disease in Russia: Regional Data and Estimated Prevalence

    PubMed Central

    Erdes, Svetlana I.; Antishin, Anton S.

    2017-01-01

    Celiac disease (CD) is an autoimmune enteropathy triggered by the ingestion of dietary gluten from some cereals mainly in individuals carrying the HLA-DQ2 and/or HLA-DQ8 haplotypes. As an autoimmune disease, CD is manifested in the small intestine in the form of a progressive and reversible inflammatory lesion due to immune response to self-antigens. Indeed, CD is one of the most challenging medicosocial problems in current gastroenterology. At present, the global CD prevalence is estimated at approximately 1% based on data sent from different locations and available CD screening strategies used. However, it is impossible to estimate global CD prevalence without all the data from the world, including Russia. In this review, we summarize the data on the incidence and prevalence of CD across geographically distinct regions of Russia, which are mostly present in local Russian scientific sources. Our conclusion is that the situation of CD prevalence in Russia is higher than is commonly believed and follows global tendencies that correspond to the epidemiologic situation in Europe, America, and Southwest Asia. PMID:28316996

  4. The impact of proposed changes to ICD-11 on estimates of PTSD prevalence and comorbidity.

    PubMed

    Wisco, Blair E; Miller, Mark W; Wolf, Erika J; Kilpatrick, Dean; Resnick, Heidi S; Badour, Christal L; Marx, Brian P; Keane, Terence M; Rosen, Raymond C; Friedman, Matthew J

    2016-06-30

    The World Health Organization's posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) work group has published a proposal for the forthcoming edition of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11) that would yield a very different diagnosis relative to DSM-5. This study examined the impact of the proposed ICD-11 changes on PTSD prevalence relative to the ICD-10 and DSM-5 definitions and also evaluated the extent to which these changes would accomplish the stated aim of reducing the comorbidity associated with PTSD. Diagnostic prevalence estimates were compared using a U.S. national community sample and two U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs clinical samples. The ICD-11 definition yielded prevalence estimates 10-30% lower than DSM-5 and 25% and 50% lower than ICD-10 with no reduction in the prevalence of common comorbidities. Findings suggest that by constraining the diagnosis to a narrower set of symptoms, the proposed ICD-11 criteria set would substantially reduce the number of individuals with the disorder. These findings raise doubt about the extent to which the ICD-11 proposal would achieve the aim of reducing comorbidity associated with PTSD and highlight the public health and policy implications of such a redefinition.

  5. Estimating the Prevalence of Treated Epilepsy Using Administrative Health Data and Its Validity: ESSENCE Study

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Seo-Young; Chung, Soo-Eun; Kim, Dong Wook; Eun, So-Hee; Kang, Hoon Chul; Cho, Yong Won; Yi, Sang Do; Kim, Heung Dong

    2016-01-01

    Background and Purpose Few of the epidemiologic studies of epilepsy have utilized well-validated nationwide databases. We estimated the nationwide prevalence of treated epilepsy based on a comprehensive medical payment database along with diagnostic validation. Methods We collected data on patients prescribed of antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment service, which covers the entire population of Korea. To assess the diagnostic validity, a medical records survey was conducted involving 6,774 patients prescribed AEDs from 43 institutions based on regional clusters and referral levels across the country. The prevalence of treated epilepsy was estimated by projecting the diagnostic validity on the number of patients prescribed AEDs. Results The mean positive predictive value (PPV) for epilepsy was 0.810 for those prescribed AEDs with diagnostic codes that indicate epilepsy or seizure (Diagnosis-E), while it was 0.066 for those without Diagnosis-E. The PPV tended to decrease with age in both groups, with lower values seen in females. The prevalence was 3.84 per 1,000, and it was higher among males, children, and the elderly. Conclusions The prevalence of epilepsy in Korea was comparable to that in other East Asian countries. The diagnostic validity of administrative health data varies depending on the method of case ascertainment, age, and sex. The prescriptions of AEDs even without relevant diagnostic codes should be considered as a tracer for epilepsy. PMID:27273925

  6. A new method for estimating the prevalence of clonorchiasis in Korea

    PubMed Central

    Jeong, Jin-Young; Lee, Jin Yong; Chung, Byung-Suk; Choi, Younghyun; Alley, Allison Baer; Kim, Hyun Joo

    2017-01-01

    Abstract South Korea presently uses an arbitrary sampling method to monitor the prevalence of Clonorchis sinensis infection in the endemic areas of the country. However, the present method is not standardized and focuses primarily on individuals who reside nearest to the mainstream river. We propose a new sampling method that combines cluster sampling with proportionate quota sampling to ensure that the entire endemic area is accurately represented. We tested the new method in Okcheon-gun, South Korea, and determined that the C sinensis infection prevalence (8.9%) in 2013 was higher than that (6.9%) estimated in 2012 when the arbitrary method was used. Additionally, no difference was observed in the prevalence based on the distance from the riverside areas, including branches and creeks, between the areas <1 and >1 km away from the riversides. Therefore, health authorities should place equal emphasis on all regions within the endemic areas. Based on the findings, we recommend the following: the clonorchiasis prevalence rate must be measured using probability sampling, (clear guidelines on survey coverage should be provided to include the riverside areas and all areas nearby branch streams, and regional cohorts should be created for continuous monitoring of prevalence rates across the region. PMID:28353615

  7. Interstudy heterogeneity of definitions of diastolic dysfunction severely affects reported prevalence

    PubMed Central

    Selmeryd, Jonas; Henriksen, Egil; Leppert, Jerzy; Hedberg, Pär

    2016-01-01

    Aims The aim of this article is to examine how the European Association of Cardiovascular Imaging (EACVI) and the American Society of Echocardiography (ASE) recommendations on the classification of diastolic dysfunction (DDF) are interpreted in the scientific community and to explore how variations in the DDF definition affect the reported prevalence. Methods and results A systematic review of studies citing the EACVI/ASE consensus document ‘Recommendations for the evaluation of left ventricular diastolic function by echocardiography’ was performed. The definition of DDF used in each study was recorded. Subsequently, several possible interpretations of the EACVI/ASE classification scheme were used to obtain DDF prevalence in a community-based sample (n = 714). In the systematic review, 60 studies were included. In 13 studies, no specification of DDF definition was presented, a one-level classification tree was used in 13, a two-level classification tree in 18, and in the remaining 16 studies, a DDF definition was presented but no grading of DDF was performed. In 17 studies, the DDF definition relied solely on early diastolic tissue velocity and/or left atrial size. In eight of these studies, a single parameter was used, in two studies the logical operator AND was used to combine two or more parameters, and the remaining seven studies used the logical operator OR. The resulting prevalence of DDF in the community-based sample varied from 12 to 84%, depending on the DDF definition used. Conclusion A substantial heterogeneity of definitions of DDF was evident among the studies reviewed, and the different definitions had a substantial impact on the reported prevalence of DDF. PMID:26374880

  8. Factors affecting the estimate of primary production from space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Balch, W. M.; Byrne, C. F.

    1994-01-01

    Remote sensing of primary production in the euphotic zone has been based mostly on visible-band and water-leaving radiance measured with the coastal zone color scanner. There are some robust, simple relationships for calculating integral production based on surface measurements, but they also require knowledge for photoadaptive parameters such as maximum photosynthesis which currently cannot be obtained from spave. A 17,000-station data set is used to show that space-based estimates of maximum photosynthesis could improve predictions of psi, the water column light utiliztion index, which is an important term in many primary productivity models. Temperature is also examined as a factor for predicting hydrographic structure and primary production. A simple model is used to relate temperature and maximum photosynthesis; the model incorporates (1) the positive relationship between maximum photosynthesis and temperature and (2) the strongly negative relationship between temperature and nitrate in the ocean (which directly affects maximum growth rates via nitrogen limitation). Since these two factors relate to carbon and nitrogen, 'balanced carbon/nitrogen assimilation' was calculated using the Redfield ratio, It is expected that the relationship between maximum balanced carbon assimilation versus temperature is concave-down, with the peak dependent on nitrate uptake kinetics, temperature-nitrate relationships,a nd the carbon chlorophyll ration. These predictions were compared with the sea truth data. The minimum turnover time for nitrate was also calculated using this approach. Lastly, sea surface temperature gradients were used to predict the slope of isotherms (a proxy for the slope of isopycnals in many waters). Sea truth data show that at size scales of several hundred kilometers, surface temperature gradients can provide information on the slope of isotherms in the top 200 m of the water column. This is directly relevant to the supply of nutrients into the surface

  9. How to estimate the affect of an intense meteor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, G. J.

    In the present age the potential threat to space projects coming from some intense meteor storms has been noticed Meteoroids have not the big size and great mass of the man-made space debris but they have high velocities up to 11-72 km s -1 and energies In addition a tremendous number of meteoroids might be encountered in a short time Moreover the destroy of the meteoroids is extensive In an impact the shock waves can be generated and propagate along colliding bodies compressing and heating both the target and meteoroid-self A plasma cloud may enclose the target and expands into the surrounding vacuum emitting electromagnetic radiation in a wide spectral range Especially the increasing activity of mankind in space for scientific commercial and military purposes has lead to an increase in safety-related problems about the satellites space stations and astronauts The actual destroy has been recorded many times making the data being lost or solar panels being severely damaged even the satellite lost its control and culminated in an early end of the mission Up to date several new techniques for observing meteors and meteor showers have been developed However the initial definition about a meteor storm based on visual observations with a Zenithal Hourly Rate of above one thousand seems insufficient since it only means a storm or burst of meteors in numbers means an eyewitness could have a chance to see a spectacular meteor show How to define the intense activity of a meteor storm how to estimate and predict the affect of

  10. Evaluation of geospatial methods to generate subnational HIV prevalence estimates for local level planning

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Objective: There is evidence of substantial subnational variation in the HIV epidemic. However, robust spatial HIV data are often only available at high levels of geographic aggregation and not at the finer resolution needed for decision making. Therefore, spatial analysis methods that leverage available data to provide local estimates of HIV prevalence may be useful. Such methods exist but have not been formally compared when applied to HIV. Design/methods: Six candidate methods – including those used by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS to generate maps and a Bayesian geostatistical approach applied to other diseases – were used to generate maps and subnational estimates of HIV prevalence across three countries using cluster level data from household surveys. Two approaches were used to assess the accuracy of predictions: internal validation, whereby a proportion of input data is held back (test dataset) to challenge predictions; and comparison with location-specific data from household surveys in earlier years. Results: Each of the methods can generate usefully accurate predictions of prevalence at unsampled locations, with the magnitude of the error in predictions similar across approaches. However, the Bayesian geostatistical approach consistently gave marginally the strongest statistical performance across countries and validation procedures. Conclusions: Available methods may be able to furnish estimates of HIV prevalence at finer spatial scales than the data currently allow. The subnational variation revealed can be integrated into planning to ensure responsiveness to the spatial features of the epidemic. The Bayesian geostatistical approach is a promising strategy for integrating HIV data to generate robust local estimates. PMID:26919737

  11. Global trends in dietary micronutrient supplies and estimated prevalence of inadequate intakes.

    PubMed

    Beal, Ty; Massiot, Eric; Arsenault, Joanne E; Smith, Matthew R; Hijmans, Robert J

    2017-01-01

    Understanding dietary patterns is vital to reducing the number of people experiencing hunger (about 795 million), micronutrient deficiencies (2 billion), and overweight or obesity (2.1 billion). We characterize global trends in dietary quality by estimating micronutrient density of the food supply, prevalence of inadequate intake of 14 micronutrients, and average prevalence of inadequate intake of these micronutrients for all countries between 1961 and 2011. Over this 50-year period, the estimated prevalence of inadequate intakes of micronutrients has declined in all regions due to increased total production of food and/or micronutrient density. This decline has been particularly strong in East and Southeast Asia and weaker in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region where dietary micronutrient density has declined over this 50-year period. At the global level, micronutrients with the lowest levels of adequate estimated intake are calcium, iron, vitamin A, and zinc, but there are strong differences between countries and regions. Fortification has reduced the estimated prevalence of inadequate micronutrient intakes in all low-income regions, except South Asia. The food supply in many countries is still far below energy requirements, which suggests a need to increase the availability and accessibility of nutritious foods. Countries where the food energy supply is adequate show a very large variation in dietary quality, and in many of these countries people would benefit from more diverse diets with a greater proportion of micronutrient-dense foods. Dietary quality can be improved through fortification, biofortification, and agricultural diversification, as well as efforts to improve access to and use of micronutrient-dense foods and nutritional knowledge. Reducing poverty and increasing education, especially of women, are integral to sustainably addressing malnutrition.

  12. Estimating the prevalence of any impairing childhood mental disorder in the national health interview survey.

    PubMed

    Ringeisen, Heather; Aldworth, Jeremy; Colpe, Lisa J; Pringle, Beverly; Simile, Catherine

    2015-12-01

    This study investigates whether the six-item Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire SDQ (five symptoms and one impact item) included in the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) can be used to construct models that accurately estimate the prevalence of any impairing mental disorder among children 4-17 years old as measured by a shortened Child/Adolescent or Preschool Age Psychiatric Assessment (CAPA or PAPA). A subsample of 217 NHIS respondents completed a follow-up CAPA or PAPA interview. Logistic regression models were developed to model presence of any child mental disorder with impairment (MDI) or with severe impairment (MDSI). Models containing only the SDQ impact item exhibited highly biased prevalence estimates. The best-performing model included information from both the five symptom SDQ items and the impact item, where absolute bias was reduced and sensitivity and concordance were increased. This study illustrates the importance of using all available information from the six-item SDQ to accurately estimate the prevalence of any impairing childhood mental disorder from the NHIS. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. [Evaluation of estimation of prevalence ratio using bayesian log-binomial regression model].

    PubMed

    Gao, W L; Lin, H; Liu, X N; Ren, X W; Li, J S; Shen, X P; Zhu, S L

    2017-03-10

    To evaluate the estimation of prevalence ratio (PR) by using bayesian log-binomial regression model and its application, we estimated the PR of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea in their infants by using bayesian log-binomial regression model in Openbugs software. The results showed that caregivers' recognition of infant' s risk signs of diarrhea was associated significantly with a 13% increase of medical care-seeking. Meanwhile, we compared the differences in PR's point estimation and its interval estimation of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea and convergence of three models (model 1: not adjusting for the covariates; model 2: adjusting for duration of caregivers' education, model 3: adjusting for distance between village and township and child month-age based on model 2) between bayesian log-binomial regression model and conventional log-binomial regression model. The results showed that all three bayesian log-binomial regression models were convergence and the estimated PRs were 1.130(95%CI: 1.005-1.265), 1.128(95%CI: 1.001-1.264) and 1.132(95%CI: 1.004-1.267), respectively. Conventional log-binomial regression model 1 and model 2 were convergence and their PRs were 1.130(95% CI: 1.055-1.206) and 1.126(95% CI: 1.051-1.203), respectively, but the model 3 was misconvergence, so COPY method was used to estimate PR, which was 1.125 (95%CI: 1.051-1.200). In addition, the point estimation and interval estimation of PRs from three bayesian log-binomial regression models differed slightly from those of PRs from conventional log-binomial regression model, but they had a good consistency in estimating PR. Therefore, bayesian log-binomial regression model can effectively estimate PR with less misconvergence and have more advantages in application compared with conventional log-binomial regression model.

  14. Thermoregulatory behaviour affects prevalence of chytrid fungal infection in a wild population of Panamanian golden frogs

    PubMed Central

    Richards-Zawacki, Corinne L.

    2010-01-01

    Predicting how climate change will affect disease dynamics requires an understanding of how the environment affects host–pathogen interactions. For amphibians, global declines and extinctions have been linked to a pathogenic chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Using a combination of body temperature measurements and disease assays conducted before and after the arrival of B. dendrobatidis, this study tested the hypothesis that body temperature affects the prevalence of infection in a wild population of Panamanian golden frogs (Atelopus zeteki). The timing of first detection of the fungus was consistent with that of a wave of epidemic infections spreading south and eastward through Central America. During the epidemic, many golden frogs modified their thermoregulatory behaviour, raising body temperatures above their normal set point. Odds of infection decreased with increasing body temperature, demonstrating that even slight environmental or behavioural changes have the potential to affect an individual's vulnerability to infection. The thermal dependency of the relationship between B. dendrobatidis and its amphibian hosts demonstrates how the progression of an epidemic can be influenced by complex interactions between host and pathogen phenotypes and the environments in which they are found. PMID:19864287

  15. Thermoregulatory behaviour affects prevalence of chytrid fungal infection in a wild population of Panamanian golden frogs.

    PubMed

    Richards-Zawacki, Corinne L

    2010-02-22

    Predicting how climate change will affect disease dynamics requires an understanding of how the environment affects host-pathogen interactions. For amphibians, global declines and extinctions have been linked to a pathogenic chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Using a combination of body temperature measurements and disease assays conducted before and after the arrival of B. dendrobatidis, this study tested the hypothesis that body temperature affects the prevalence of infection in a wild population of Panamanian golden frogs (Atelopus zeteki). The timing of first detection of the fungus was consistent with that of a wave of epidemic infections spreading south and eastward through Central America. During the epidemic, many golden frogs modified their thermoregulatory behaviour, raising body temperatures above their normal set point. Odds of infection decreased with increasing body temperature, demonstrating that even slight environmental or behavioural changes have the potential to affect an individual's vulnerability to infection. The thermal dependency of the relationship between B. dendrobatidis and its amphibian hosts demonstrates how the progression of an epidemic can be influenced by complex interactions between host and pathogen phenotypes and the environments in which they are found.

  16. Estimating the prevalence of obstetric fistula: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Obstetric fistula is a severe condition which has devastating consequences for a woman’s life. The estimation of the burden of fistula at the population level has been impaired by the rarity of diagnosis and the lack of rigorous studies. This study was conducted to determine the prevalence and incidence of fistula in low and middle income countries. Methods Six databases were searched, involving two separate searches: one on fistula specifically and one on broader maternal and reproductive morbidities. Studies including estimates of incidence and prevalence of fistula at the population level were included. We conducted meta-analyses of prevalence of fistula among women of reproductive age and the incidence of fistula among recently pregnant women. Results Nineteen studies were included in this review. The pooled prevalence in population-based studies was 0.29 (95% CI 0.00, 1.07) fistula per 1000 women of reproductive age in all regions. Separated by region we found 1.57 (95% CI 1.16, 2.06) in sub Saharan Africa and South Asia, 1.60 (95% CI 1.16, 2.10) per 1000 women of reproductive age in sub Saharan Africa and 1.20 (95% CI 0.10, 3.54) per 1000 in South Asia. The pooled incidence was 0.09 (95% CI 0.01, 0.25) per 1000 recently pregnant women. Conclusions Our study is the most comprehensive study of the burden of fistula to date. Our findings suggest that the prevalence of fistula is lower than previously reported. The low burden of fistula should not detract from their public health importance, however, given the preventability of the condition, and the devastating consequences of fistula. PMID:24373152

  17. Obstetric fistula in Southern Sudan: situational analysis and Key Informant Method to estimate prevalence

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Obstetric fistula is a severe condition which can have devastating consequences for a woman’s life. Despite a considerable literature, very little is known about its prevalence. This project was conducted to carry out a situational analysis of fistula services in South Sudan and to pilot test the Key Informant Method (KIM) to estimate the prevalence of fistula in a region of South Sudan. Methods Key stakeholder interviews, document reviews and fistula surgery record reviews were undertaken. A KIM survey was conducted in a district of Western Bahr-el-Ghazal in January 2012. One hundred sixty-six community-based distributors, traditional birth attendants and village midwives were trained as key informants to identify women with fistula in the community. Women identified were subsequently examined by an obstetrician and nurse to verify whether they had a fistula. Results There were limited fistula repair services in South Sudan. Approximately 50–80 women per year attend periodic campaigns, with around half having a fistula and receiving a repair. On average a further 5 women a year received fistula repair from hospital services. Ten women with potential fistula were identified via KIM; all confirmed by the obstetrician. Of these, three were from the survey area, which had 8,865 women of reproductive age (15–49 years). This gives a minimal estimated prevalence of at least 30 fistulas per 100,000 women of reproductive age (95% CI 10–100). Conclusions Routine fistula repair services available do not meet the population’s needs. The pilot study suggests that KIM can be used to identify women with fistula in the community. Data on fistula are generally poor; the KIM methodology we used in South Sudan yielded a lower fistula prevalence than estimates reported previously in the region. PMID:23497241

  18. Statistical innovations improve prevalence estimates of nutrient risk populations: applications in São Paulo, Brazil.

    PubMed

    Morimoto, Juliana Masami; Marchioni, Dirce Maria Lobo; Cesar, Chester Luiz Galvão; Fisberg, Regina Mara

    2012-10-01

    The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of inadequate micronutrient intake and excess sodium intake among adults age 19 years and older in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. Twenty-four-hour dietary recall and sociodemographic data were collected from each participant (n=1,663) in a cross-sectional study, Inquiry of Health of São Paulo, of a representative sample of the adult population of the city of São Paulo in 2003 (ISA-2003). The variability in intake was measured through two replications of the 24-hour recall in a subsample of this population in 2007 (ISA-2007). Usual intake was estimated by the PC-SIDE program (version 1.0, 2003, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University), which uses an approach developed by Iowa State University. The prevalence of nutrient inadequacy was calculated using the Estimated Average Requirement cut-point method for vitamins A and C, thiamin, riboflavin, niacin, copper, phosphorus, and selenium. For vitamin D, pantothenic acid, manganese, and sodium, the proportion of individuals with usual intake equal to or more than the Adequate Intake value was calculated. The percentage of individuals with intake equal to more than the Tolerable Upper Intake Level was calculated for sodium. The highest prevalence of inadequacy for males and females, respectively, occurred for vitamin A (67% and 58%), vitamin C (52% and 62%), thiamin (41% and 50%), and riboflavin (29% and 19%). The adjustment for the within-person variation presented lower prevalence of inadequacy due to removal of within-person variability. All adult residents of São Paulo had excess sodium intake, and the rates of nutrient inadequacy were high for certain key micronutrients.

  19. How irrigation affects soil erosion estimates of RUSLE2

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    RUSLE2 is a robust and computationally efficient conservation planning tool that estimates soil, climate, and land management effects on sheet and rill erosion and sediment delivery from hillslopes, and also estimates the size distribution and clay enrichment of sediment delivered to the channel sys...

  20. Prevalent cases in observational studies of cancer survival: do they bias hazard ratio estimates?

    PubMed Central

    Azzato, E M; Greenberg, D; Shah, M; Blows, F; Driver, K E; Caporaso, N E; Pharoah, P D P

    2009-01-01

    Observational epidemiological studies often include prevalent cases recruited at various times past diagnosis. This left truncation can be dealt with in non-parametric (Kaplan–Meier) and semi-parametric (Cox) time-to-event analyses, theoretically generating an unbiased hazard ratio (HR) when the proportional hazards (PH) assumption holds. However, concern remains that inclusion of prevalent cases in survival analysis results inevitably in HR bias. We used data on three well-established breast cancer prognosticators – clinical stage, histopathological grade and oestrogen receptor (ER) status – from the SEARCH study, a population-based study including 4470 invasive breast cancer cases (incident and prevalent), to evaluate empirically the effectiveness of allowing for left truncation in limiting HR bias. We found that HRs of prognostic factors changed over time and used extended Cox models incorporating time-dependent covariates. When comparing Cox models restricted to subjects ascertained within six months of diagnosis (incident cases) to models based on the full data set allowing for left truncation, we found no difference in parameter estimates (P=0.90, 0.32 and 0.95, for stage, grade and ER status respectively). Our results show that use of prevalent cases in an observational epidemiological study of breast cancer does not bias the HR in a left truncation Cox survival analysis, provided the PH assumption holds true. PMID:19401693

  1. Pool screen PCR for estimating the prevalence of Leishmania infantum infection in sandflies (Diptera: Nematocera, Phlebotomidae).

    PubMed

    Martín-Sánchez, J; Gállego, M; Barón, S; Castillejo, S; Morillas-Marquez, F

    2006-06-01

    Prevalence studies of infection in the sandfly vector can be used as an indicator of a change in the intensity of Leishmania transmission. However, these studies are difficult to carry out as prevalence in the vector is usually low and its estimation requires a large number of sandflies to be dissected. Our objective was to establish whether a L. infantum-specific PCR-ELISA applied to pools of female sandflies and a previously described algorithm could be useful tools to study the prevalence of infection by this parasite in natural vector populations. We collected sandflies from six collection points in two stable foci of leishmaniasis in southern (N=3) and north-eastern (N=3) Spain, following standard procedures. A fraction of the collected females was dissected and morphologically identified. Another fraction was used for pool screening. In total, 127 pools of 30 females (3810 specimens) were studied by PCR-ELISA and 1764 specimens were individually dissected. The prevalence of infection determined by dissection does not differ from that determined by pool screen PCR. The results suggest that pool screen PCR can be of practical use in the epidemiological surveillance of leishmaniasis in European countries of the western Mediterranean basin, associated with control interventions or global change.

  2. Estimated prevalence of compulsive buying in Germany and its association with sociodemographic characteristics and depressive symptoms.

    PubMed

    Mueller, Astrid; Mitchell, James E; Crosby, Ross D; Gefeller, Olaf; Faber, Ronald J; Martin, Alexandra; Bleich, Stefan; Glaesmer, Heide; Exner, Cornelia; de Zwaan, Martina

    2010-12-30

    The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of compulsive buying and its association with sociodemographic characteristics and depressive symptoms in a nationally representative sample of the German population using the validated German version of the Compulsive Buying Scale (CBS; Faber and O'Guinn, 1992) in order to have a direct comparison with U.S. findings. The point prevalence of compulsive buying in the weighted representative sample (N=2,350) was estimated to be 6.9%. This was somewhat higher than the percentage in the American sample assessed in 2004 (5.8%). No significant difference was found between women and men (6.9% and 6.8%, respectively). Age was inversely related to the prevalence of compulsive buying. Individuals with compulsive buying reported more depressive symptoms assessed via the German version of the Brief Patient Health Questionnaire Mood Scale (PHQ-9). Further research on this topic is needed to establish a clearer delineation of when excessive buying is clinically significant and should be treated and how it could be prevented.

  3. Back pain prevalence in US industry and estimates of lost workdays.

    PubMed Central

    Guo, H R; Tanaka, S; Halperin, W E; Cameron, L L

    1999-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Back pain is the most common reason for filing workers' compensation claims and often causes lost workdays. Data from the 1988 National Health Interview Survey were analyzed to identify high-risk industries and to estimate the prevalence of work-related back pain and number of workdays lost. METHODS: Analyses included 30074 respondents who worked during the 12 months before the interview. A case patient was defined as a respondent who had back pain every day for a week or more during that period. RESULTS: The prevalence of lost-workday back pain was 4.6%, and individuals with work-related cases lost 101.8 million workdays owing to back pain. Male and female case patients lost about the same number of workdays. Industries in high-risk categories were also identified for future research and intervention, including those seldom studied. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides statistically reliable national estimates of the prevalence of back pain among workers and the enormous effect of this condition on American industry in terms of lost workdays. PMID:10394311

  4. Estimating the prevalence of researcher misconduct: a study of UK academics within biological sciences.

    PubMed

    Roberts, David L; St John, Freya A V

    2014-01-01

    Misconduct in academic research is undoubtedly increasing, but studies estimating the prevalence of such behaviour suffer from biases inherent in researching sensitive topics. We compared the unmatched-count technique (UCT) and the crosswise-model (CM), two methods specifically designed to increase honest reporting to sensitive questions, with direct questioning (DQ) for five types of misconduct in the biological sciences. UCT performed better than CM and either outperformed or produced similar estimates to DQ depending on the question. Estimates of academic misconduct increased with decreasing seriousness of the behaviour, from c. 0% for data fabrication to >68% for inappropriate co-authorship. Results show that research into even minor issues of misconduct, is sensitive, suggesting that future studies should consider using specialised questioning techniques as they are more likely to yield accurate figures.

  5. Prior task experience affects temporal prediction and estimation

    PubMed Central

    Tobin, Simon; Grondin, Simon

    2015-01-01

    It has been shown that prior experience with a task improves temporal prediction, even when the amount of prior experience with the task is often limited. The present study targeted the role of extensive training on temporal prediction. Expert and intermediate runners had to predict the time of a 5 km running competition. Furthermore, after the race’s completion, participants had to estimate their running time so that it could be compared with the predicted time. Results show that expert runners were more accurate than intermediate runners for both predicting and estimating their running time. Furthermore, only expert runners had an estimation that was more accurate than their initial prediction. The results confirm the role of prior task experience in both temporal prediction and estimation. PMID:26217261

  6. Prior task experience affects temporal prediction and estimation.

    PubMed

    Tobin, Simon; Grondin, Simon

    2015-01-01

    It has been shown that prior experience with a task improves temporal prediction, even when the amount of prior experience with the task is often limited. The present study targeted the role of extensive training on temporal prediction. Expert and intermediate runners had to predict the time of a 5 km running competition. Furthermore, after the race's completion, participants had to estimate their running time so that it could be compared with the predicted time. Results show that expert runners were more accurate than intermediate runners for both predicting and estimating their running time. Furthermore, only expert runners had an estimation that was more accurate than their initial prediction. The results confirm the role of prior task experience in both temporal prediction and estimation.

  7. Winter temperature affects the prevalence of ticks in an Arctic seabird.

    PubMed

    Descamps, Sébastien

    2013-01-01

    The Arctic is rapidly warming and host-parasite relationships may be modified by such environmental changes. Here, I showed that the average winter temperature in Svalbard, Arctic Norway, explained almost 90% of the average prevalence of ticks in an Arctic seabird, the Brünnich's guillemot Uria lomvia. An increase of 1°C in the average winter temperature at the nesting colony site was associated with a 5% increase in the number of birds infected by these ectoparasites in the subsequent breeding season. Guillemots were generally infested by only a few ticks (≤5) and I found no direct effect of tick presence on their body condition and breeding success. However, the strong effect of average winter temperature described here clearly indicates that tick-seabird relationships in the Arctic may be strongly affected by ongoing climate warming.

  8. High prevalence of affective disorders among adolescents living in Rural Zimbabwe.

    PubMed

    Langhaug, Lisa F; Pascoe, Sophie J; Mavhu, Webster; Woelk, Godfrey; Sherr, Lorraine; Hayes, Richard J; Cowan, Frances M

    2010-08-01

    Poor mental health accounts for considerable disease burden among young people globally. We investigated the prevalence and determinants of affective disorders among rural Zimbabwean youth in 2006. We undertook a cross-sectional survey among 1495 Zimbabwean youth aged 15-23 (median 18) from 12 rural communities in three provinces in south-eastern Zimbabwe. Mental health was assessed using the Shona Symptom Questionnaire (SSQ), a locally validated 14-item indigenous screening tool for affective disorders, notably depression and anxiety disorders. Participants scoring >or=8/14 were considered at risk of being affected and >or=11 as at risk of being severely affected. Most participants (93.1%) completed the SSQ. Of these, 51.7% (95%CI:49.0-54.3%) scored >or=8/14 and 23.8% (95%CI:21.5-26.0%) scored >or=11. Affective disorders were independently associated with household poverty (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.9, 95%CI:1.4-2.7), living in a female-headed household (AOR 1.3, 95%CI:1.0-1.7), having moved home within last 5 years (AOR 1.4, 95%CI:1.0-1.9) and feeling stigmatized (AOR being shunned by others 3.7, 95%CI:2.5-5.7). There was a strong linear association between risk of affective disorders and sexual risk taking (ever sex AOR 1.5, 95%CI:1.0-2.4, and 2.8, 95%CI:1.9-4.2 for affected and severely affected, respectively, test for trend P < 0.001; >or=2 lifetime partners AOR 2.3, 95%CI:1.1-4.8 and 5.4, 95%CI:2.7-10.7, test for trend P < 0.001). This study indicates high levels of psychological morbidity among rural Zimbabwean youth which was associated with sexual risk taking. Interventions to prevent, identify and treat mental health disorders in this vulnerable population are urgently required. In HIV-endemic countries, such interventions may also help reduce HIV transmission.

  9. High Prevalence of Affective Disorders among Adolescents Living in Rural Zimbabwe

    PubMed Central

    Pascoe, Sophie J.; Mavhu, Webster; Woelk, Godfrey; Sherr, Lorraine; Hayes, Richard J.; Cowan, Frances M.

    2010-01-01

    Poor mental health accounts for considerable disease burden among young people globally. We investigated the prevalence and determinants of affective disorders among rural Zimbabwean youth in 2006. We undertook a cross-sectional survey among 1495 Zimbabwean youth aged 15–23 (median 18) from 12 rural communities in three provinces in south-eastern Zimbabwe. Mental health was assessed using the Shona Symptom Questionnaire (SSQ), a locally validated 14-item indigenous screening tool for affective disorders, notably depression and anxiety disorders. Participants scoring ≥8/14 were considered at risk of being affected and ≥11 as at risk of being severely affected. Most participants (93.1%) completed the SSQ. Of these, 51.7% (95%CI:49.0–54.3%) scored ≥8/14 and 23.8% (95%CI:21.5–26.0%) scored ≥11. Affective disorders were independently associated with household poverty (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.9, 95%CI:1.4–2.7), living in a female-headed household (AOR 1.3, 95%CI:1.0–1.7), having moved home within last 5 years (AOR 1.4, 95%CI:1.0–1.9) and feeling stigmatized (AOR being shunned by others 3.7, 95%CI:2.5–5.7). There was a strong linear association between risk of affective disorders and sexual risk taking (ever sex AOR 1.5, 95%CI:1.0–2.4, and 2.8, 95%CI:1.9–4.2 for affected and severely affected, respectively, test for trend P < 0.001; ≥2 lifetime partners AOR 2.3, 95%CI:1.1–4.8 and 5.4, 95%CI:2.7–10.7, test for trend P < 0.001). This study indicates high levels of psychological morbidity among rural Zimbabwean youth which was associated with sexual risk taking. Interventions to prevent, identify and treat mental health disorders in this vulnerable population are urgently required. In HIV-endemic countries, such interventions may also help reduce HIV transmission. PMID:20571897

  10. A probabilistic modeling approach in thermal inactivation: estimation of postprocess Bacillus cereus spore prevalence and concentration.

    PubMed

    Membré, J M; Amézquita, A; Bassett, J; Giavedoni, P; Blackburn, C de W; Gorris, L G M

    2006-01-01

    The survival of spore-forming bacteria is linked to the safety and stability of refrigerated processed foods of extended durability (REPFEDs). A probabilistic modeling approach was used to assess the prevalence and concentration of Bacillus cereus spores surviving heat treatment for a semiliquid chilled food product. This product received heat treatment to inactivate nonproteolytic Clostridium botulinum during manufacture and was designed to be kept at refrigerator temperature postmanufacture. As key inputs for the modeling, the assessment took into consideration the following factors: (i) contamination frequency (prevalence) and level (concentration) of both psychrotrophic and mesophilic strains of B. cereus, (ii) heat resistance of both types (expressed as decimal reduction times at 90 degrees C), and (iii) intrapouch variability of thermal kinetics during heat processing (expressed as the time spent at 90 degrees C). These three inputs were established as statistical distributions using expert opinion, literature data, and specific modeling, respectively. They were analyzed in a probabilistic model in which the outputs, expressed as distributions as well, were the proportion of the contaminated pouches (the likely prevalence) and the number of spores in the contaminated pouches (the likely concentration). The prevalence after thermal processing was estimated to be 11 and 49% for psychrotrophic and mesophilic strains, respectively. In the positive pouches, the bacterial concentration (considering psychrotrophic and mesophilic strains combined) was estimated to be 30 CFU/g (95th percentile). Such a probabilistic approach seems promising to help in (i) optimizing heat processes, (ii) identifying which key factor(s) to control, and (iii) providing information for subsequent assessment of B. cereus resuscitation and growth.

  11. National Malaria Prevalence in Cambodia: Microscopy Versus Polymerase Chain Reaction Estimates.

    PubMed

    Lek, Dysoley; Popovici, Jean; Ariey, Frederic; Vinjamuri, Seshu Babu; Meek, Sylvia; Bruce, Jan; Taylor, Walter R J; Socheat, Duong; Menard, Didier; Rogers, William O

    2016-09-07

    Accurate information regarding malaria prevalence at national level is required to design and assess malaria control/elimination efforts. Although many comparisons of microscopy and polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based methods have been conducted, there is little published literature covering such comparisons in southeast Asia especially at the national level. Both microscopic examination and PCR detection were performed on blood films and dried blood spots samples collected from 8,067 individuals enrolled in a nationwide, stratified, multistage, cluster sampling malaria prevalence survey conducted in Cambodia in 2007. The overall malaria prevalence and prevalence rates of Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax, and Plasmodium malariae infections estimated by microscopy (N = 8,067) were 2.74% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.39-3.12%), 1.81% (95% CI: 1.53-2.13%), 1.14% (95% CI: 0.92-1.40%), and 0.01% (95% CI: 0.003-0.07%), respectively. The overall malaria prevalence based on PCR detection (N = 7,718) was almost 2.5-fold higher (6.31%, 95% CI: 5.76-6.89%, P < 0.00001). This difference was significantly more pronounced for P. falciparum (4.40%, 95% CI: 3.95-4.90%, P < 0.00001) compared with P. vivax (1.89%, 95% CI: 1.60-2.22%, P < 0.001) and P. malariae infections (0.22%, 95% CI: 0.13-0.35%, P < 0.0001). The significant proportion of microscopy-negative but PCR-positive individuals (289/7,491, 3.85%) suggest microscopic examination frequently underestimated malaria infections and that active case detection based on microscopy may miss a significant reservoir of infection, especially in low-transmission settings.

  12. Postpartum amenorrhea in selected developing countries: estimates from contraceptive prevalence surveys.

    PubMed

    Knodel, J; Lewis, G

    1984-01-01

    Data collected in contraceptive prevalence surveys for Korea, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Barbados, Colombia, Costa Rica, and Peru on how soon following childbirth menstruation returned provide the basis for national level estimates of the duration of postpartum amenorrhea. 2 somewhat different techniques are used for estimating median and mean durations of postpartum amenorrhea. The results are compared with information indicating patterns of breastfeeding. The analysis indicates considerable cross-national variation in the mean and median duration of postpartum amenorrhea and suggests that estimating postpartum amenorrhea from information on breastfeeding alone could be misleading. What is most striking about the results is how quickly postpartum amenorrhea appears to terminate in most of the countries. Only for Korean women is the median duration substantially above 1/2 a year. The results suggest that at least for most of the limited number of developing countries for which Westinghouse Contraceptive Prevalence Survey data are available, postpartum nonsusceptibility is providing protection against a new pregnancy for only a relatively short period following a birth for the majority of women. In all the countries with available data except Costa Rica, breastfeeding is close to universal, involving at least 90% of all children; in Costa Rica, only about 3/4 of children are ever breastfed. The average duration of breastfeeding is noticeably longer in the 3 Asian countries than in the Latin American ones.

  13. Estimating the number of helminthic infections in the Republic of Cameroon from data on infection prevalence in schoolchildren.

    PubMed Central

    Brooker, S.; Donnelly, C. A.; Guyatt, H. L.

    2000-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: The prevalence of infection with helminths is markedly dependent on age, yet estimates of the total number of infections are typically based on data only from school-aged children. Such estimates, although useful for advocacy, provide inadequate information for planning control programmes and for quantifying the burden of disease. Using readily available data on the prevalence of infection in schoolchildren, the relation between the prevalence of infection in school-aged children and prevalence in the wider community can be adequately described using species-specific models. This paper explores the reliability of this approach to predict the prevalence infection in the community and provides a model for estimating the total number of people infected in the Republic of Cameroon. METHODS: Using data on the prevalence of helminthic infection in school-aged children in Cameroon, the prevalence of infection in pre-school children and adults was estimated from species-specific linear and logistic regression models developed previously. The model predictions were then used to estimate the number of people infected in each district in each age group in Cameroon. RESULTS: For Cameroon, if only the prevalence of infection in schoolchildren is used, the number of people infected with each helminthic species will be overestimated by up to 32% when compared with the estimates provided by the species-specific models. The calculation of confidence intervals supports the statistical reliability of the model since a narrow range of parameter estimates is evident. Furthermore, this work suggests that estimation of national prevalence of infection and the number infected will be enhanced if data are stratified by age; this model represents a useful planning tool for obtaining more accurate estimates. Estimates based on data aggregated from three geographical levels (district, regional, and national) show that summarizing prevalence data at the national level will result

  14. Prevalence Estimation and Validation of New Instruments in Psychiatric Research: An Application of Latent Class Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pence, Brian Wells; Miller, William C.; Gaynes, Bradley N.

    2009-01-01

    Prevalence and validation studies rely on imperfect reference standard (RS) diagnostic instruments that can bias prevalence and test characteristic estimates. The authors illustrate 2 methods to account for RS misclassification. Latent class analysis (LCA) combines information from multiple imperfect measures of an unmeasurable latent condition to…

  15. Factors affecting soil phosphorus and potassium estimation by reflectance spectroscopy

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Visible and near infrared (VNIR) diffuse reflectance spectroscopy has potential in site-specific measurement of soil properties. However, previous studies have reported VNIR estimates of plant available soil phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) to be of variable accuracy. In this study, we used a databa...

  16. How Does Calibration Timing and Seasonality Affect Item Parameter Estimates?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wyse, Adam E.; Babcock, Ben

    2016-01-01

    Continuously administered examination programs, particularly credentialing programs that require graduation from educational programs, often experience seasonality where distributions of examine ability may differ over time. Such seasonality may affect the quality of important statistical processes, such as item response theory (IRT) item…

  17. Bayesian estimation of true between-herd and within-herd prevalence of Salmonella in Danish veal calves.

    PubMed

    Nielsen, T D; Nielsen, L R; Toft, N

    2011-07-01

    Specialised veal producers that purchase and raise calves from several dairy herds are potentially at high risk of delivering Salmonella-infected animals to slaughter. However, the true prevalence of Salmonella infected veal producing herds and the prevalence of infected calves delivered to slaughter from infected herds are unknown in Denmark. Due to uncertainties about test sensitivity and specificity, these prevalences are not straightforward to assess. The objective of this study was to estimate the within-herd- and between-herd prevalence of Salmonella in veal calves delivered for slaughter to abattoirs in Denmark. Furthermore, it was investigated to which extent the estimates differed between a setup using both serological tests and faecal culture, compared to just serological tests, and whether the applied sampling scheme in the national surveillance programme in Denmark was sufficient to establish high posterior estimates of freedom from infection in individual herds. We used Bayesian analysis to avoid bias as a result of fixed test validity estimates. Serological test results from 753 animals and faecal culture from 1233 animals from 68 randomly selected Danish veal producing herds that delivered more than 100 calves to slaughter per year were used to estimate the prevalences and estimates of freedom from Salmonella. Serological test results of 7726 animals from 185 herds were used to compare the difference in prevalence estimates between serology alone vs. faecal culture combined with serology. We estimated that 34-57% of specialised veal producing herds were infected with Salmonella. Within the infected herds, 21-49% of the animals were infected. Few herds obtained high posterior estimates for the probability of freedom from infection given the collected data, with only six of 68 herds obtaining posterior probability of being infected less than 10%. Furthermore, this study indicated that serology is sufficiently sensitive and specific to be used for

  18. Validation of Temperature Histories for Structural Steel Welds Using Estimated Heat-Affected-Zone Edges

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-10-12

    Estimated Heat -Affected-Zone Edges October 12, 2016 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. S.G. LambrakoS Center for Computational Materials...PAGES 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT Validation of Temperature Histories for Structural Steel Welds Using Estimated Heat -Affected-Zone Edges S.G. Lambrakos...experimentally measured estimates of the heat -affected-zone edge to examine the consistency of calculated temperature histories for steel welds. 12-10-2016 NRL

  19. Estimating the prevalence of injection drug use among black and white adults in large U.S. metropolitan areas over time (1992--2002): estimation methods and prevalence trends.

    PubMed

    Cooper, Hannah L F; Brady, Joanne E; Friedman, Samuel R; Tempalski, Barbara; Gostnell, Karla; Flom, Peter L

    2008-11-01

    No adequate data exist on patterns of injection drug use (IDU) prevalence over time within racial/ethnic groups in U.S. geographic areas. The absence of such prevalence data limits our understanding of the causes and consequences of IDU and hampers planning efforts for IDU-related interventions. Here, we (1) describe a method of estimating IDU prevalence among non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic White adult residents of 95 large U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) annually over an 11-year period (1992--2002); (2) validate the resulting prevalence estimates; and (3) document temporal trends in these prevalence estimates. IDU prevalence estimates for Black adults were calculated in several steps: we (1) created estimates of the proportion of injectors who were Black in each MSA and year by analyzing databases documenting injectors' encounters with the healthcare system; (2) multiplied the resulting proportions by previously calculated estimates of the total number of injectors in each MSA and year (Brady et al., 2008); (3) divided the result by the number of Black adults living in each MSA each year; and (4) validated the resulting estimates by correlating them cross-sectionally with theoretically related constructs (Black- and White-specific prevalences of drug-related mortality and of mortality from hepatitis C). We used parallel methods to estimate and validate White IDU prevalence. We analyzed trends in the resulting racial/ethnic-specific IDU prevalence estimates using measures of central tendency and hierarchical linear models (HLM). Black IDU prevalence declined from a median of 279 injectors per 10,000 adults in 1992 to 156 injectors per 10,000 adults in 2002. IDU prevalence for White adults remained relatively flat over time (median values ranged between 86 and 97 injectors per 10,000 adults). HLM analyses described similar trends and suggest that declines in Black IDU prevalence decelerated over time. Both sets of IDU estimates correlated cross

  20. Estimated Prevalence of Heterozygous Familial Hypercholesterolemia in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome.

    PubMed

    Ohmura, Hirotoshi; Fukushima, Yoshifumi; Mizuno, Atsushi; Niwa, Koichiro; Kobayashi, Yohei; Ebina, Toshiaki; Kimura, Kazuo; Ishibashi, Shun; Daida, Hiroyuki

    2017-02-07

    Heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) represents a strong risk for development of premature coronary artery disease (CAD). However, the majority of patients with FH are undiagnosed and the prevalence likely represents an underestimate in most countries. In Japan, the possible contribution of FH to the development of CAD may be higher because of the low incidence of CAD among the general population. We estimated the prevalence of heterozygous FH by measuring Achilles tendon thickness (ATT) in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS).A total of 359 patients suffering from ACS were enrolled in this multicenter registration study. Heterozygous FH was defined according to the diagnostic criteria proposed by the Japan Atherosclerosis Society. After excluding 63 patients because of missing ATT data or plasma triglyceride levels that were 4.5 mmol/L or more, 296 patients were eligible for inclusion in the study. The number of patients with ATT of 9 mm or more was 53 (17.9%). They were significantly younger and had significantly higher LDL cholesterol levels than patients with an ATT less than 9 mm. The prevalence of heterozygous FH was 5.7% (1/17.5) and more prominent in younger patients who were less than 60 years old (7.8%). In patients with ATT of 9 mm or more, approximately 1 in 3.5 fulfilled the criteria for heterozygous FH.We demonstrated the usefulness of measuring ATT by radiography and the high prevalence of heterozygous FH in patients with ACS in Japan, especially in younger patients who were less than 60 years old.

  1. Spatial recruitment bias in respondent-driven sampling: Implications for HIV prevalence estimation in urban heterosexuals.

    PubMed

    Jenness, Samuel M; Neaigus, Alan; Wendel, Travis; Gelpi-Acosta, Camila; Hagan, Holly

    2014-12-01

    Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a study design used to investigate populations for which a probabilistic sampling frame cannot be efficiently generated. Biases in parameter estimates may result from systematic non-random recruitment within social networks by geography. We investigate the spatial distribution of RDS recruits relative to an inferred social network among heterosexual adults in New York City in 2010. Mean distances between recruitment dyads are compared to those of network dyads to quantify bias. Spatial regression models are then used to assess the impact of spatial structure on risk and prevalence outcomes. In our primary distance metric, network dyads were an average of 1.34 (95 % CI 0.82–1.86) miles farther dispersed than recruitment dyads, suggesting spatial bias. However, there was no evidence that demographic associations with HIV risk or prevalence were spatially confounded. Therefore, while the spatial structure of recruitment may be biased in heterogeneous urban settings, the impact of this bias on estimates of outcome measures appears minimal.

  2. The Prevalence and Correlates of Physical and Sexual Violence Affecting Female Sex Workers in Swaziland.

    PubMed

    Berger, Blair O; Grosso, Ashley; Adams, Darrin; Ketende, Sosthenes; Sithole, Bhekie; Mabuza, Xolile S; Mavimbela, Mpumelelo J; Baral, Stefan

    2016-02-12

    Female sex workers (FSW) have a heightened vulnerability to violence and negative sexual/reproductive health outcomes. Limited research has examined how experiencing physical and sexual violence (PSV) mediates risk for poor health outcomes among FSW in Swaziland. The present analyses aim to contribute to literature linking violence with poor health outcomes, high-risk behaviors, and reduced health service-seeking among FSW. Data were analyzed from a cross-sectional study conducted in Swaziland between July and September 2011 with 325 adult women who reported exchanging sex for money, goods, or favors in the last 12 months, recruited through respondent-driven sampling (RDS). Logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between PSV and ancillary violence/abuse exposures, risk behaviors, and sexual/reproductive and mental health outcomes. PSV was conceptualized as either ever having been beaten up as a result of selling sex or ever being forced to have sex since the age of 18, or both. Prevalence of PSV in this sample was 59.0% in crude estimation, and 48.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]:[39.2,57.6]) with RDS weighting. Separate RDS-weighted estimates of being beaten up as a result of sex work and ever being forced to have sex were 32.4% (95%CI=[24.4,40.4]) and 33.1% (95%CI =[25.0,41.2%]), respectively. Experiencing PSV was associated with being blackmailed (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]= 1.93, 95%CI= [1.07,3.52]), non-injection drug use in the last 12 months (aOR= 1.84, 95%CI= [1.02,3.33]), and feeling afraid to seek health services as a result of selling sex (aOR = 1.74, 95%CI= [1.01,2.99]). Given these findings, violence prevention strategies should be prioritized in programs that address Swazi FSW health, empowerment, and safety.

  3. Adjusting HIV prevalence estimates for non-participation: an application to demographic surveillance

    PubMed Central

    McGovern, Mark E.; Marra, Giampiero; Radice, Rosalba; Canning, David; Newell, Marie-Louise; Bärnighausen, Till

    2015-01-01

    Introduction HIV testing is a cornerstone of efforts to combat the HIV epidemic, and testing conducted as part of surveillance provides invaluable data on the spread of infection and the effectiveness of campaigns to reduce the transmission of HIV. However, participation in HIV testing can be low, and if respondents systematically select not to be tested because they know or suspect they are HIV positive (and fear disclosure), standard approaches to deal with missing data will fail to remove selection bias. We implemented Heckman-type selection models, which can be used to adjust for missing data that are not missing at random, and established the extent of selection bias in a population-based HIV survey in an HIV hyperendemic community in rural South Africa. Methods We used data from a population-based HIV survey carried out in 2009 in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. In this survey, 5565 women (35%) and 2567 men (27%) provided blood for an HIV test. We accounted for missing data using interviewer identity as a selection variable which predicted consent to HIV testing but was unlikely to be independently associated with HIV status. Our approach involved using this selection variable to examine the HIV status of residents who would ordinarily refuse to test, except that they were allocated a persuasive interviewer. Our copula model allows for flexibility when modelling the dependence structure between HIV survey participation and HIV status. Results For women, our selection model generated an HIV prevalence estimate of 33% (95% CI 27–40) for all people eligible to consent to HIV testing in the survey. This estimate is higher than the estimate of 24% generated when only information from respondents who participated in testing is used in the analysis, and the estimate of 27% when imputation analysis is used to predict missing data on HIV status. For men, we found an HIV prevalence of 25% (95% CI 15–35) using the selection model, compared to 16% among those who

  4. Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Sero-Prevalence Surveys in Multiple Countries

    PubMed Central

    Imai, Natsuko; Dorigatti, Ilaria; Cauchemez, Simon; Ferguson, Neil M.

    2015-01-01

    Background Estimates of dengue transmission intensity remain ambiguous. Since the majority of infections are asymptomatic, surveillance systems substantially underestimate true rates of infection. With advances in the development of novel control measures, obtaining robust estimates of average dengue transmission intensity is key for assessing both the burden of disease from dengue and the likely impact of interventions. Methodology/Principal Findings The force of infection (λ) and corresponding basic reproduction numbers (R0) for dengue were estimated from non-serotype (IgG) and serotype-specific (PRNT) age-stratified seroprevalence surveys identified from the literature. The majority of R0 estimates ranged from 1–4. Assuming that two heterologous infections result in complete immunity produced up to two-fold higher estimates of R0 than when tertiary and quaternary infections were included. λ estimated from IgG data were comparable to the sum of serotype-specific forces of infection derived from PRNT data, particularly when inter-serotype interactions were allowed for. Conclusions/Significance Our analysis highlights the highly heterogeneous nature of dengue transmission. How underlying assumptions about serotype interactions and immunity affect the relationship between the force of infection and R0 will have implications for control planning. While PRNT data provides the maximum information, our study shows that even the much cheaper ELISA-based assays would provide comparable baseline estimates of overall transmission intensity which will be an important consideration in resource-constrained settings. PMID:25881272

  5. Estimating freshwater flows from tidally affected hydrographic data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pagendam, D. E.; Percival, D. B.

    2015-03-01

    Detiding end-of-catchment flow data are an important step in determining the total volumes of freshwater (and associated pollutant loads) entering the ocean. We examine three approaches for separating freshwater and tidal flows from tidally affected data: (i) a simple low-pass Butterworth filter (BWF); (ii) a robust, harmonic analysis with Kalman smoothing (RoHAKS) which is a novel approach introduced in this paper; and (iii) dynamic harmonic regression (DHR). Using hydrographic data collected in the Logan River, Australia, over a period of 452 days, we judge the accuracy of the three methods based on three criteria: consistency of freshwater flows with upstream gauges; consistency of total discharge volumes with the raw data over the event; and minimal upstream flow. A simulation experiment shows that RoHAKS outperforms both BWF and DHR on a number of criteria. In addition, RoHAKS enjoys a computational advantage over DHR in speed and use of freely available software.

  6. An estimate of hernia prevalence in Nepal from a countrywide community survey

    PubMed Central

    Stewart, Barclay; Pathak, John; Gupta, Shailvi; Shrestha, Sunil; Groen, Reinou S.; Nwomeh, Benedict C.; Kushner, Adam L; McIntyre, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Background Herniorrhaphy is one of the most frequently performed general surgical operations worldwide. However, most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are unable to provide this essential surgery to the general public, resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence, barriers to care and disability of untreated hernias in Nepal. Methods Nepal is a low-income country in South Asia with rugged terrain, infrastructure deficiencies and a severely under-resourced healthcare system resulting in substantial unmet surgical need. A cluster randomized, cross-sectional household survey was performed using the validated Surgeons OverSeas Assessment of Surgical (SOSAS) tool. Fifteen randomized clusters consisting of 30 households with two randomly selected respondents each were sampled to estimate surgical need. The prevalence of and disability from groin hernias and barriers to herniorrhaphy were assessed. Results The survey sampled 1,350 households, totaling 2,695 individuals (97% response rate). There were 1,434 males (53%) with 1.5% having a mass or swelling in the groin at time of survey (95% CI 0.8 – 3.0). The age-standardized rate for inguinal hernias in men ranged from 1,144 per 100,000 persons between age 5 and 49 years and 2,941 per 100,000 persons age ≥50 years. Extrapolating nationally, there are nearly 310,000 individuals with groin masses and 66,000 males with soft/reducible groin masses in need of evaluation in Nepal. Twenty-nine respondents were not able to have surgery due to lack of surgical services (31%), fear or mistrust of the surgical system (31%) and inability to afford care (21%). Twenty percent were unable to work as previous or perform self-care due to their hernia. Conclusions Despite the lower than expected prevalence of inguinal hernias, hundreds of thousands of people in Nepal are currently in need of surgical evaluation. Given that essential surgery is a necessary component in health

  7. Comparison of Prevalence- and Smoking Impact Ratio-Based Methods of Estimating Smoking-Attributable Fractions of Deaths

    PubMed Central

    Kong, Kyoung Ae; Jung-Choi, Kyung-Hee; Lim, Dohee; Lee, Hye Ah; Lee, Won Kyung; Baik, Sun Jung; Park, Su Hyun; Park, Hyesook

    2016-01-01

    Background Smoking is a major modifiable risk factor for premature mortality. Estimating the smoking-attributable burden is important for public health policy. Typically, prevalence- or smoking impact ratio (SIR)-based methods are used to derive estimates, but there is controversy over which method is more appropriate for country-specific estimates. We compared smoking-attributable fractions (SAFs) of deaths estimated by these two methods. Methods To estimate SAFs in 2012, we used several different prevalence-based approaches using no lag and 10- and 20-year lags. For the SIR-based method, we obtained lung cancer mortality rates from the Korean Cancer Prevention Study (KCPS) and from the United States-based Cancer Prevention Study-II (CPS-II). The relative risks for the diseases associated with smoking were also obtained from these cohort studies. Results For males, SAFs obtained using KCPS-derived SIRs were similar to those obtained using prevalence-based methods. For females, SAFs obtained using KCPS-derived SIRs were markedly greater than all prevalence-based SAFs. Differences in prevalence-based SAFs by time-lag period were minimal among males, but SAFs obtained using longer-lagged prevalence periods were significantly larger among females. SAFs obtained using CPS-II-based SIRs were lower than KCPS-based SAFs by >15 percentage points for most diseases, with the exceptions of lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Conclusions SAFs obtained using prevalence- and SIR-based methods were similar for males. However, neither prevalence-based nor SIR-based methods resulted in precise SAFs among females. The characteristics of the study population should be carefully considered when choosing a method to estimate SAF. PMID:26477995

  8. What are the odds? How demographic similarity affects the prevalence of perceived employment discrimination.

    PubMed

    Avery, Derek R; McKay, Patrick F; Wilson, David C

    2008-03-01

    Because research is needed to identify the conditions that facilitate or impede the prevalence of perceived workplace discrimination, the authors examined the effects of demographics and demographic similarity on the prevalence of sex- and race/ethnicity-based perceived workplace discrimination. Results from a national survey of 763 full-time, United States employees show perceived sex-based discrimination at work was more prevalent among female than male employees, and perceived race-based discrimination at work was more prevalent among Black and Hispanic than White employees. Additionally, perceived racial/ethnic discrimination was less prevalent among those with same-race/ethnicity supervisors. The effect of employee-coworker sex similarity on perceived sex discrimination was significant only for women, and the effects of supervisor-subordinate racial similarity on the prevalence of perceived racial discrimination varied between Black and White respondents, depending on employee-residential-community racial similarity.

  9. Economic Approaches to Estimating Benefits of Regulations Affecting Addictive Goods.

    PubMed

    Cutler, David M; Jessup, Amber I; Kenkel, Donald S; Starr, Martha A

    2016-05-01

    The question of how to evaluate lost consumer surplus in benefit-cost analyses has been contentious. There are clear health benefits of regulations that curb consumption of goods with health risks, such as tobacco products and foods high in fats, calories, sugar, and sodium. Yet, if regulations cause consumers to give up goods they like, the health benefits they experience may be offset by some utility loss, which benefit-cost analyses of regulations need to take into account. This paper lays out the complications of measuring benefits of regulations aiming to curb consumption of addictive and habitual goods, rooted in the fact that consumers' observed demand for such goods may not be in line with their true preferences. Focusing on the important case of tobacco products, the paper describes four possible approaches for estimating benefits when consumers' preferences may not be aligned with their behavior, and identifies one as having the best feasibility for use in applied benefit-cost analyses in the near term.

  10. Estimating Prevalence of Overweight or Obese Children and Adolescents in Small Geographic Areas Using Publicly Available Data

    PubMed Central

    Davila-Payan, Carlo; DeGuzman, Michael; Johnson, Kevin; Serban, Nicoleta

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Interventions for pediatric obesity can be geographically targeted if high-risk populations can be identified. We developed an approach to estimate the percentage of overweight or obese children aged 2 to 17 years in small geographic areas using publicly available data. We piloted our approach for Georgia. Methods We created a logistic regression model to estimate the individual probability of high body mass index (BMI), given data on the characteristics of the survey participants. We combined the regression model with a simulation to sample subpopulations and obtain prevalence estimates. The models used information from the 2001–2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, the 2010 Census, and the 2010 American Community Survey. We validated our results by comparing 1) estimates for adults in Georgia produced by using our approach with estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and 2) estimates for children in Arkansas produced by using our approach with school examination data. We generated prevalence estimates for census tracts in Georgia and prioritized areas for interventions. Results In DeKalb County, the mean prevalence among census tracts varied from 27% to 40%. For adults, the median difference between our estimates and CDC estimates was 1.3 percentage points; for Arkansas children, the median difference between our estimates and examination-based estimates data was 1.7 percentage points. Conclusion Prevalence estimates for census tracts can be different from estimates for the county, so small-area estimates are crucial for designing effective interventions. Our approach validates well against external data, and it can be a relevant aid for planning local interventions for children. PMID:25764138

  11. Estimated prevalence of immunity to poliomyelitis in the city of São Paulo, Brazil: a population-based survey.

    PubMed

    Kiffer, Carlos Roberto Veiga; Conceição, Orlando Jorge; Santos, Edgar Bortholi; Sabino, Ester; Focaccia, Roberto

    2002-10-01

    Objectives. Estimate the prevalence of immunity to poliomyelitis (anti-polio antibodies) in the city of São Paulo/Brazil through a population-based survey. Methods. A quantitative and inductive method was used to draw a representative sample of the population. Randomization and stratification (based on sex, age and residence region) was done, and 1,059 individuals were studied on a home-visit basis (structured questionnaires and blood samples). A microneutralization test was performed to detect anti-polio antibodies against serotypes 1, 2 and 3. Results. The estimated prevalence of immunity to poliomyelitis was high, with 94.6% prevalence of anti-polio 1 antibodies, 98.8% anti-polio 2 and 91.9% anti-polio 3. Despite this high prevalence, there were significantly lower prevalence levels in some groups, specially among age and residence region groups. Discussion. Routine child immunization and NIDs with OPV have provided excellent levels of serological immunity to poliomyelitis in the population of the city of São Paulo, Brazil. However, there may be specific groups with a lower prevalence of immunity. Estimations of the prevalence of immunity to poliomyelitis were made in a population-based survey, which could be used as an auxiliary tool for supporting the polio eradication program.

  12. Epidemiology of chronic (perennial) rhinitis in Singapore: prevalence estimates, demographic variation and clinical allergic presentation.

    PubMed

    Ng, T P; Tan, W C

    1994-01-01

    We conducted a population-based study involving a stratified cluster disproportionate random sample of 2868 adults aged 20 to 74 years selected from five housing estates (Yishun, Toa Payoh, Jurong East, Geylang/Eunos and Bukit Merah). Chronic rhinitis was defined as the usual presence of symptoms of blocked or running nose, apart from colds or the flu, lasting for more than a year. Allergic rhinitis was considered to be present if these symptoms were associated with conjunctivitis or recognisable provocation by commonly known allergens, namely house dust, dogs, cats, birds, pollen, or medicines. The estimated general population prevalence of chronic rhinitis was 10.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) 8.8-12.7). Higher prevalences were noted in males, in younger adults, in Indians and Chinese, in those with higher socio-economic status, and in Toa Payoh, Jurong East and Geylang/Eunos. The prevalence of allergic rhinitis was 5.5% (95% CI 4.5-6.5). The most common 'allergenic' factor in allergic rhinitis was house dust (73%); provocation by birds, cats or dogs (5%), grass or tree pollens (5%), and medicine (5%) was less common but likely to have been under-recognised. Provocation by change in temperature (54%) and early in the morning (64%) was equally frequent in both 'allergic' and 'non-allergic' rhinitis; cigarette smoke, petrol and diesel fumes, food and work environment were less common (4-12%). Allergic rhinitis was highly significantly associated with asthma (13.9% in allergic rhinitis, 4.4% in non-allergic rhinitis, and 2.2% in non-rhinitic subjects).

  13. Prevalence of hypothyroidism and importance of cholesterol estimation in patients suffering from major depressive disorder.

    PubMed

    Gupta, Soma; Saha, Pradip Kumar; Mukhopadhyay, Ashish

    2008-04-01

    The coexistence of hypothroidism and depression is already reported and both of these conditions are known to share some common clinical symptoms. Serum cholesterol level is known to be altered in either condition considered separately. But, no report is obtained regarding serum cholesterol level when both the conditions coexist. In this study, 78 patients (61 females and 17 males, age ranged 19 to 67 years) suffering from major depressive disorder were included. Serum T3, T4, TSH and cholesterol levels were estimated in all of them. Sixty-two patients were found to be euthyroid and 16 patients (11 females, 5 males) were found to be hypothyroid. Among female patients, 6 had subclinical hypothyroidism and 5 had overt hypothyroidism. Among male patients 3 had subclinical hypothyroidism and 2 had overt hypothyroidism. The overall prevalence of hypothyroidism in major depressive disorder was estimated as 20.5%. Mean serum cholesterol level in 62 euthyroid patients was found to be 150.9% +/- 16 mg% and that of 16 hypothyroid patients to be 190.7 +/- 12 mg% showing a significant difference (p < 0.01). Thus estimation of cholesterol in major depressive disorder patients may give an idea regarding their thyroid status and vice-versa.

  14. Mobile teledermatology is a valid method to estimate prevalence of melanocytic naevi in children.

    PubMed

    Karlsson, Maria A; Lindelöf, Bernt; Wahlgren, Carl-Fredrik; Wiklund, Kerstin; Rodvall, Ylva

    2015-03-01

    The prevalence of melanocytic naevi in children correlates with sun exposure and may serve as an objective population risk indicator of future melanoma incidence. The aim was to investigate if mobile teledermatology could offer a valid methodology compared with standard manual, face-to-face counting of naevi on the back of children. Ninety-seven children aged 7-16 years were enrolled. One dermatologist performed manual naevi counting and imaging of the child's back using an iPhone 4S comprising a safe-coded mobile application. Two other dermatologists independently counted naevi from the images. Cohen's weighted kappa (κw) coefficient demonstrated substantial agreement for both dermatologists: κw = 0.69 (0.57-0.81 [95% confidence intervals]) and κw = 0.78 (0.70-0.86), compared with the manual assessment. Inter-rater reliability was also substantial (κw = 0.80 [0.73-0.87]). Use of mobile teledermatology proved valid for estimating naevi prevalence on the back and could provide a more feasible methodology following trends in sun exposure in children.

  15. Problematic video game use: estimated prevalence and associations with mental and physical health.

    PubMed

    Mentzoni, Rune Aune; Brunborg, Geir Scott; Molde, Helge; Myrseth, Helga; Skouverøe, Knut Joachim Mår; Hetland, Jørn; Pallesen, Ståle

    2011-10-01

    A nationwide survey was conducted to investigate the prevalence of video game addiction and problematic video game use and their association with physical and mental health. An initial sample comprising 2,500 individuals was randomly selected from the Norwegian National Registry. A total of 816 (34.0 percent) individuals completed and returned the questionnaire. The majority (56.3 percent) of respondents used video games on a regular basis. The prevalence of video game addiction was estimated to be 0.6 percent, with problematic use of video games reported by 4.1 percent of the sample. Gender (male) and age group (young) were strong predictors for problematic use of video games. A higher proportion of high frequency compared with low frequency players preferred massively multiplayer online role-playing games, although the majority of high frequency players preferred other game types. Problematic use of video games was associated with lower scores on life satisfaction and with elevated levels of anxiety and depression. Video game use was not associated with reported amount of physical exercise.

  16. A national survey to estimate the prevalence of Salmonella species among Canadian registered commercial turkey flocks.

    PubMed Central

    Irwin, R J; Poppe, C; Messier, S; Finley, G G; Oggel, J

    1994-01-01

    In 1990-1991, a national survey was conducted to estimate the prevalence of Salmonella species among Canadian commercial turkey flocks. Two hundred and seventy flocks were randomly selected across Canada. The proportion sampled from each province was selected according to each province's share of the national turkey market. Samples, consisting of 12 pooled litter and four pooled dust samples, were used to determine the Salmonella status of the environment of each flock. Additionally, a one kilogram sample of feed was taken from each flock premise. Salmonella was recovered from environmental samples in 234/270 (86.7%) of flocks and from feed samples in 26/266 (9.8%) of flocks. Forty-eight different Salmonella serovars were isolated from flock environmental samples. The most prevalent serovars were S. anatum, S. hadar, S. agona, S. heidelberg and S. saintpaul which were isolated from 53/270 (19.6%), 49/270 (18.1%), 49/270 (18.1%), 42/270 (15.6%) and 34/270 (12.6%) flocks, respectively. PMID:7889457

  17. Resilience in a Community Sample of Children of Alcoholics: Its Prevalence and Relation to Internalizing Symptomatology and Positive Affect

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carle, Adam C.; Chassin, Laurie

    2004-01-01

    Data from an ongoing longitudinal study examined resilience (competent performance under adverse conditions) in a community sample of children of alcoholics (COAs n=216) and matched controls (n=201). The study examined the prevalence of competence and whether the relation of competence to internalizing and positive affect differed for COAs and…

  18. Estimated prevalence of the GYS-1 mutation in healthy Austrian Haflingers.

    PubMed

    Schwarz, B; Ertl, R; Zimmer, S; Netzmann, Y; Klein, D; Schwendenwein, I; Hoven, R V D

    2011-11-26

    The aim of this study was to determine the occurrence and frequency of a mutation in the gene coding for skeletal muscle glycogen synthase type 1 (GYS-1), which is the cause of equine polysaccharide storage myopathy (PSSM) type 1 in a population of 50 Haflingers. GYS-1 genotyping of 50 Haflingers was performed with a validated restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) assay. The second aim was to compare resting and post-exercise muscle enzyme activities as well as parameters of glucose metabolism in blood between horses with and without the mutation. Nine of the 50 Haflingers were identified to be heterozygous for the mutation (HR). None was homozygous (HH). The estimated HR prevalence was 18 per cent in this herd. Mean aspartate aminotransferase (AST) activity at rest and mean creatine kinase and AST activity after exercise were significantly higher in HR compared with RR (homozygote normal) horses. No significant differences could be found in the other parameters.

  19. HIV prevalence, estimated incidence, and risk behaviors among people who inject drugs in Kenya

    PubMed Central

    Kurth, Ann E.; Cleland, Charles M.; Des Jarlais, Don C.; Musyoki, Helgar; Lizcano, John A.; Chhun, Nok; Cherutich, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Objective HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa increasingly occurs among people who inject drugs (PWID). Kenya is one of the first to implement a national needle and syringe program (NSP). Our study undertook a baseline assessment as part of evaluating NSP in a seek, test, treat, and retain approach. Methods Participants enrolled May–December 2012 from 10 sites. Respondent-driven sampling was used to reach n=1,785 PWID for HIV-1 prevalence and viral load determination and survey data. Results Estimated HIV prevalence, adjusted for differential network size and recruitment relationships, was 14.5% in Nairobi (95% CI 10.8–18.2) and 20.5% in the Coast region (95% CI 17.3–23.6). Viral load (log10 transformed) in Nairobi ranged from 1.71 to 6.12 (median 4.41; IQR 3.51–4.94) and in the Coast from 1.71 to 5.88 (median 4.01; IQR 3.44–4.72). Using log10 viral load 2.6 as a threshold for HIV viral suppression, the percentage of HIV-infected participants with viral suppression was 4.2% in Nairobi and 4.6% in the Coast. Heroin was the most commonly injected drug in both regions, used by 93% of participantsin the past month typically injecting 2–3 times/day. Receptive needle/syringe sharing at last injection was more common in Nairobi (23%) than the Coast (4%). Estimated incidence among new injectors was 2.5/100 person-years in Nairobi and 1.6/100 person-years in the Coast. Conclusion The HIV epidemic is well-established among PWID in both Nairobi and Coast regions. Public health scale implementation of combination HIV prevention has the potential to greatly limit the epidemic in this vulnerable and bridging population. PMID:26226249

  20. COUNTING THE MISSING CASES: ESTIMATING THE GLOBAL BURDEN OF MULTIDRUG-RESISTANT TUBERCULOSIS AMONG PREVALENT CASES OF TB

    PubMed Central

    Nourzad, Susan; Jenkins, Helen E.; Milstein, Meredith; Mitnick, Carole D.

    2017-01-01

    SUMMARY Background Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) burden estimates are based on incomplete, infrequently updated data among a limited pool of cases: notified or incident, pulmonary TB patients. Methods Using WHO data reported by 217 countries/territories in 2014, we calculated MDR-TB burdens among prevalent TB cases and compared these with estimates among incident and notified TB patients. We also compared treatment coverage across estimates. Findings Among prevalent TB patients globally in 2014, we estimate that 555,545 (95% credible bounds: 499,340–617,391) MDR-TB cases occurred. This is 85% more than the 300,000 estimated among notified cases, and 16% more than the 480,000 among incident cases. Only 20% of MDR-TB cases among prevalent—compared to 37% of MDR-TB among notified—TB patients had access to MDR-TB treatment. Applying prior estimates, only 10% of MDR-TB cases will have successful outcomes. Interpretation Estimates based on likely-to-be-diagnosed cases of MDR-TB overlook a significant proportion of morbidity, mortality, and transmission: that occur in undiagnosed, untreated, prevalent TB patients. Still likely underestimating the true disease burden, MDR-TB among patients with prevalent TB represents a closer approximation of disease burden than currently reported indicators. Progress toward elimination—or control—depends on policies guided by a more complete representation of the disease burden. PMID:28157458

  1. Prevalence and factors affecting glucosamine use in Korea: a survey-based study.

    PubMed

    Seo, Hyun-Ju; Sung, Yoon-Kyoung; Choi, Chan-Bum; Lee, Eun Bong; Cheong, Chelim; Kim, Soo Young; Park, Ji-Ae; Bae, Sang-Cheol

    2013-06-01

    Glucosamine and chondroitin are widely used as pharmaceutical and dietary supplements. However, there is a lack of information regarding consumer consumption of glucosamine and chondroitin in the Republic of Korea. We investigated the prevalence and factors affecting the use of glucosamine products in the general population aged 40 years and older in the Republic of Korea. We conducted this descriptive and exploratory study using a telephone-based survey with a structured questionnaire. We randomly selected subjects using a proportional allocation method based on age, gender, and region. We started the survey on September 19, 2009, and continued the survey until we obtained 1,000 respondents who were currently taking glucosamine or chondroitin, which occured on September 30, 2009. Among the 8,135 people approached, the response rate was 29.6%. A total of 12.2% of respondents (n = 991) were current users of glucosamine, while only 0.1% (n = 9) were current users of chondroitin. Two-fifths of current glucosamine users were not diagnosed with osteoarthritis by a doctor nor did they experience arthritis pain. These participants used glucosamine to maintain and promote joint health. Information on glucosamine was mainly obtained through advertisements on television or the Internet. Seventy percent of current users indicated that they did not know the composition of the glucosamine they took. Appropriate information and guides concerning glucosamine or chondroitin usage should be provided by expert clinicians because of the accessibility of both these cartilage derivatives as supplements and medical drugs in the Republic of Korea.

  2. Early Childhood Developmental Status in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: National, Regional, and Global Prevalence Estimates Using Predictive Modeling

    PubMed Central

    McCoy, Dana Charles; Danaei, Goodarz; Black, Maureen M.; Sudfeld, Christopher R.; Fawzi, Wafaie; Fink, Günther

    2016-01-01

    Background The development of cognitive and socioemotional skills early in life influences later health and well-being. Existing estimates of unmet developmental potential in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are based on either measures of physical growth or proxy measures such as poverty. In this paper we aim to directly estimate the number of children in LMICs who would be reported by their caregivers to show low cognitive and/or socioemotional development. Methods and Findings The present paper uses Early Childhood Development Index (ECDI) data collected between 2005 and 2015 from 99,222 3- and 4-y-old children living in 35 LMICs as part of the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) programs. First, we estimate the prevalence of low cognitive and/or socioemotional ECDI scores within our MICS/DHS sample. Next, we test a series of ordinary least squares regression models predicting low ECDI scores across our MICS/DHS sample countries based on country-level data from the Human Development Index (HDI) and the Nutrition Impact Model Study. We use cross-validation to select the model with the best predictive validity. We then apply this model to all LMICs to generate country-level estimates of the prevalence of low ECDI scores globally, as well as confidence intervals around these estimates. In the pooled MICS and DHS sample, 14.6% of children had low ECDI scores in the cognitive domain, 26.2% had low socioemotional scores, and 36.8% performed poorly in either or both domains. Country-level prevalence of low cognitive and/or socioemotional scores on the ECDI was best represented by a model using the HDI as a predictor. Applying this model to all LMICs, we estimate that 80.8 million children ages 3 and 4 y (95% CI 48.1 million, 113.6 million) in LMICs experienced low cognitive and/or socioemotional development in 2010, with the largest number of affected children in sub-Saharan Africa (29.4.1 million; 43.8% of children

  3. Estimates of Prevalence and Risk Associated with Inattention and Distraction Based Upon In Situ Naturalistic Data

    PubMed Central

    Dingus, Thomas A.

    2014-01-01

    By using in situ naturalistic driving data, estimates of prevalence and risk can be made regarding driver populations’ secondary task distractions and crash rates. Through metadata analysis, three populations of drivers (i.e., adult light vehicle, teenaged light vehicle, and adult heavy vehicle) were compared regarding frequency of secondary task behavior and the associated risk for safety-critical incidents. Relative risk estimates provide insight into the risk associated with engaging in a single task. When such risk is considered in combination with frequency of use, it sheds additional light on those secondary tasks that create the greatest overall risk to driving safety. The results show that secondary tasks involving manual typing, texting, dialing, reaching for an object, or reading are dangerous for all three populations. Additionally, novice teen drivers have difficulty in several tasks that the other two populations do not, including eating and external distractions. Truck drivers also perform a number of risky “mobile office” types of tasks, including writing, not seen in the other populations. Implications are described for policy makers and designers of in-vehicle and nomadic, portable systems. PMID:24776227

  4. Nevirapine-resistant human immunodeficiency virus: kinetics of replication and estimated prevalence in untreated patients.

    PubMed Central

    Havlir, D V; Eastman, S; Gamst, A; Richman, D D

    1996-01-01

    The nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor nevirapine rapidly selects for mutant human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in vivo. The most common mutation occurs at amino acid residue 181 in patients receiving monotherapy. After the initiation of nevirapine therapy, plasma and peripheral blood mononuclear cell samples were collected at frequent intervals and assayed for HIV RNA levels and the proportion of virus containing a mutation at residue 181. HIV RNA levels remained stable for the first 24 h after initiation of therapy and rapidly declined between 1 and 7 days. There was a consistent maximum decrease of 2 log10 HIV RNA copies per ml of plasma (range, 1.96 to 2.43) from baseline after 2 weeks in all monotherapy subjects. The estimated median half-life of HIV RNA was 1.11 days (range, 0.63 to 1.61). After 14 days of therapy, HIV RNA levels began to increase and 181 mutant virus was detected. The estimated doubling time of the emerging virus population ranged from 1.80 to 5.73 days. Viral DNA in peripheral blood mononuclear cells turned over from wild type to the mutant with a mutation at residue 181 significantly more slowly than did HIV RNA in plasma. In two subjects, the calculated prevalence of the 181 mutant virus prior to treatment was 7 and 133 per 10,000 copies of plasma HIV RNA. PMID:8892912

  5. Nasal self-swabbing for estimating the prevalence of Staphylococcus aureus in the community.

    PubMed

    Gamblin, Jenny; Jefferies, Johanna M; Harris, Scott; Ahmad, Nusreen; Marsh, Peter; Faust, Saul N; Fraser, Simon; Moore, Michael; Roderick, Paul; Blair, Iain; Clarke, Stuart C

    2013-03-01

    Staphylococcus aureus remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality and, therefore, a burden on healthcare systems. Our aim was to estimate the current rate of nasal S. aureus carriage in the general population and to determine the feasibility of nasal self-swabbing as a means of detection. Two thousand people (1200 adults and 800 children) from a single NHS general practice in Southampton, UK, were randomly selected from a general practice age sex register, stratified by age and sex, and invited to undertake nasal self-swabbing in their own home. Overall, 362 (32.5%) swabs from adults and 168 (22%) from children were returned. Responses were greater for adults and those of increased age, female gender and decreasing socio-economic deprivation. The overall estimated practice carriage rate of S. aureus directly standardized for age sex was 28% [95% confidence interval (CI) 26.1-30.2%]. Carriage of meticillin-susceptible S. aureus was 27% (95% CI 26.1-30.2%), whilst that of meticillin-resistant S. aureus was 1.9% (95% CI 0.7-3.1%). Although nasal self-swabbing rates were relatively low, they are comparable to other studies and may allow large population-based carriage studies to be undertaken at relatively low cost. Importantly, this study updates prevalence data for S. aureus carriage in the community.

  6. Estimating the Smoking Ban Effects on Smoking Prevalence, Quitting and Cigarette Consumption in a Population Study of Apprentices in Italy

    PubMed Central

    Pieroni, Luca; Muzi, Giacomo; Quercia, Augusto; Lanari, Donatella; Rundo, Carmen; Minelli, Liliana; Salmasi, Luca; dell’Omo, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: We evaluated the effects of the Italian 2005 smoking ban in public places on the prevalence of smoking, quitting and cigarette consumption of young workers. Data and Methods: The dataset was obtained from non-computerized registers of medical examinations for a population of workers with apprenticeship contracts residing in the province of Viterbo, Italy, in the period 1996–2007. To estimate the effects of the ban, a segmented regression approach was used, exploiting the discontinuity introduced by the application of the law on apprentices’ smoking behavior. Results: It is estimated that the Italian smoking ban generally had no effect on smoking prevalence, quitting ratio, or cigarette consumption of apprentices. However, when the estimates were applied to subpopulations, significant effects were found: −1% in smoking prevalence, +2% in quitting, and −3% in smoking intensity of apprentices with at least a diploma. PMID:26287220

  7. Estimating the Prevalence of Opioid Diversion by “Doctor Shoppers” in the United States

    PubMed Central

    McDonald, Douglas C.; Carlson, Kenneth E.

    2013-01-01

    Background Abuse of prescription opioid analgesics is a serious threat to public health, resulting in rising numbers of overdose deaths and admissions to emergency departments and treatment facilities. Absent adequate patient information systems, “doctor shopping” patients can obtain multiple opioid prescriptions for nonmedical use from different unknowing physicians. Our study estimates the prevalence of doctor shopping in the US and the amounts and types of opioids involved. Methods and Findings The sample included records for 146.1 million opioid prescriptions dispensed during 2008 by 76% of US retail pharmacies. Prescriptions were linked to unique patients and weighted to estimate all prescriptions and patients in the nation. Finite mixture models were used to estimate different latent patient populations having different patterns of using prescribers. On average, patients in the extreme outlying population (0.7% of purchasers), presumed to be doctor shoppers, obtained 32 opioid prescriptions from 10 different prescribers. They bought 1.9% of all opioid prescriptions, constituting 4% of weighed amounts dispensed. Conclusions Our data did not provide information to make a clinical diagnosis of individuals. Very few of these patients can be classified with certainty as diverting drugs for nonmedical purposes. However, even patients with legitimate medical need for opioids who use large numbers of prescribers may signal dangerously uncoordinated care. To close the information gap that makes doctor shopping and uncoordinated care possible, states have created prescription drug monitoring programs to collect records of scheduled drugs dispensed, but the majority of physicians do not access this information. To facilitate use by busy practitioners, most monitoring programs should improve access and response time, scan prescription data to flag suspicious purchasing patterns and alert physicians and pharmacists. Physicians could also prevent doctor shopping by

  8. Estimates of the population prevalence of injection drug users among hispanic residents of large US metropolitan areas.

    PubMed

    Pouget, Enrique R; Friedman, Samuel R; Cleland, Charles M; Tempalski, Barbara; Cooper, Hannah L F

    2012-06-01

    Little information exists on the population prevalence or geographic distribution of injection drug users (IDUs) who are Hispanic in the USA. Here, we present yearly estimates of IDU population prevalence among Hispanic residents of the 96 most populated US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) for 1992-2002. First, yearly estimates of the proportion of IDUs who were Hispanic in each MSA were created by combining data on (1) IDUs receiving drug treatment services in Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA)'s Treatment Entry Data System, (2) IDUs being tested in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) HIV-Counseling and Testing System, and (3) incident AIDS diagnoses among IDUs, supplemented by (4) data on IDUs who were living with AIDS. Then, the resulting proportions were multiplied by published yearly estimates of the number of IDUs of all racial/ethnic groups in each MSA to produce Hispanic IDU population estimates. These were divided by Hispanic population data to produce population prevalence rates. Time trends were tested using mixed-effects regression models. Hispanic IDU prevalence declined significantly on average (1992 mean = 192, median = 133; 2002 mean = 144, median = 93; units are per 10,000 Hispanics aged 15-64). The highest prevalence rates across time tended to be in smaller northeastern MSAs. Comparing the last three study years to the first three, prevalence decreased in 82% of MSAs and increased in 18%. Comparisons with data on drug-related mortality and hepatitis C mortality supported the validity of the estimates. Generally, estimates of Hispanic IDU population prevalence were higher than published estimates for non-Hispanic White residents and lower than published estimates for non-Hispanic Black residents. Further analysis indicated that the proportion of IDUs that was Hispanic decreased in 52% and increased in 48% of MSAs between 2002 and 2007. The estimates resulting from this study can

  9. Estimated amount of 24-hour urine sodium excretion is positively correlated with stomach and breast cancer prevalence in Korea.

    PubMed

    Park, Jung Hwan; Kim, Yong Chul; Koo, Ho Seok; Oh, Se Won; Kim, Suhnggwon; Chin, Ho Jun

    2014-09-01

    Stomach cancer is one of the most common cancers in Korea. The aim of this study was to identify the association between the prevalence of cancer, particularly stomach cancer, and the amount of 24-hr urine sodium excretion estimated from spot urine specimens. The study included 19,083 subjects who took part in the Korean National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey between 2009 and 2011. The total amount of urine sodium excreted in a 24-hr period was estimated by using two equations based on the values for spot urine sodium and creatinine. In subjects who had an estimated 24-hr urine sodium excretion of more than two standard deviations above the mean (group 2), the prevalence of stomach cancer was higher than in subjects with lower 24-hr sodium excretion (group 1). By using the Tanaka equation to estimate it, the prevalence of stomach cancer was 0.6% (114/18,331) in group 1, whereas it was 1.6% (9/568) in group 2 (P=0.006). By using the Korean equation, the prevalence was 0.6% (115/18,392) in group 1, and 1.6% in group 2 (8/507) (P=0.010). By using the Tanaka equation, breast cancer in women is more prevalent in group 2 (1.9%, 6/324) than group 1 (0.8%, 78/9,985, P=0.039). Higher salt intake, as defined by the estimated amount of 24-hr urine sodium excretion, is positively correlated with a higher prevalence of stomach or breast cancer in the Korean population.

  10. Estimating the Prevalence of Ovarian Cancer Symptoms in Women Aged 50 Years or Older: Problems and Possibilities.

    PubMed

    Sun, Zhuoyu; Gilbert, Lucy; Ciampi, Antonio; Kaufman, Jay S; Basso, Olga

    2016-11-01

    Diagnostic testing is recommended in women with "ovarian cancer symptoms." However, these symptoms are nonspecific. The ongoing Diagnosing Ovarian Cancer Early (DOVE) Study in Montreal, Quebec, Canada, provides diagnostic testing to women aged 50 years or older with symptoms lasting for more than 2 weeks and less than 1 year. The prevalence of ovarian cancer in DOVE is 10 times that of large screening trials, prompting us to estimate the prevalence of these symptoms in this population. We sent a questionnaire to 3,000 randomly sampled women in 2014-2015. Overall, 833 women responded; 81.5% reported at least 1 symptom, and 59.7% reported at least 1 symptom within the duration window specified in DOVE. We explored whether such high prevalence resulted from low survey response by applying inverse probability weighting to correct the estimates. Older women and those from deprived areas were less likely to respond, but only age was associated with symptom reporting. Prevalence was similar in early and late responders. Inverse probability weighting had a minimal impact on estimates, suggesting little evidence of nonresponse bias. This is the first study investigating symptoms that have proven to identify a subset of women with a high prevalence of ovarian cancer. However, the high frequency of symptoms warrants further refinements before symptom-triggered diagnostic testing can be implemented.

  11. Respondent-driven sampling of injection drug users in two U.S.-Mexico border cities: recruitment dynamics and impact on estimates of HIV and syphilis prevalence.

    PubMed

    Frost, Simon D W; Brouwer, Kimberly C; Firestone Cruz, Michelle A; Ramos, Rebeca; Ramos, Maria Elena; Lozada, Remedios M; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Strathdee, Steffanie A

    2006-11-01

    Respondent-driven sampling (RDS), a chain referral sampling approach, is increasingly used to recruit participants from hard-to-reach populations, such as injection drug users (IDUs). Using RDS, we recruited IDUs in Tijuana and Ciudad (Cd.) Juárez, two Mexican cities bordering San Diego, CA and El Paso, TX, respectively, and compared recruitment dynamics, reported network size, and estimates of HIV and syphilis prevalence. Between February and April 2005, we used RDS to recruit IDUs in Tijuana (15 seeds, 207 recruits) and Cd. Juárez (9 seeds, 197 recruits), Mexico for a cross-sectional study of behavioral and contextual factors associated with HIV, HCV and syphilis infections. All subjects provided informed consent, an anonymous interview, and a venous blood sample for serologic testing of HIV, HCV, HBV (Cd. Juárez only) and syphilis antibody. Log-linear models were used to analyze the association between the state of the recruiter and that of the recruitee in the referral chains, and population estimates of the presence of syphilis antibody were obtained, correcting for biased sampling using RDS-based estimators. Sampling of the targeted 200 recruits per city was achieved rapidly (2 months in Tijuana, 2 weeks in Cd. Juárez). After excluding seeds and missing data, the sample prevalence of HCV, HIV and syphilis were 96.6, 1.9 and 13.5% respectively in Tijuana, and 95.3, 4.1, and 2.7% respectively in Cd. Juárez (where HBV prevalence was 84.7%). Syphilis cases were clustered in recruitment trees. RDS-corrected estimates of syphilis antibody prevalence ranged from 12.8 to 26.8% in Tijuana and from 2.9 to 15.6% in Ciudad Juárez, depending on how recruitment patterns were modeled, and assumptions about how network size affected an individual's probability of being included in the sample. RDS was an effective method to rapidly recruit IDUs in these cities. Although the frequency of HIV was low, syphilis prevalence was high, particularly in Tijuana. RDS

  12. Respondent-Driven Sampling of Injection Drug Users in Two U.S.–Mexico Border Cities: Recruitment Dynamics and Impact on Estimates of HIV and Syphilis Prevalence

    PubMed Central

    Brouwer, Kimberly C.; Firestone Cruz, Michelle A.; Ramos, Rebeca; Ramos, Maria Elena; Lozada, Remedios M.; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Strathdee, Steffanie A.

    2006-01-01

    Respondent-driven sampling (RDS), a chain referral sampling approach, is increasingly used to recruit participants from hard-to-reach populations, such as injection drug users (IDUs). Using RDS, we recruited IDUs in Tijuana and Ciudad (Cd.) Juárez, two Mexican cities bordering San Diego, CA and El Paso, TX, respectively, and compared recruitment dynamics, reported network size, and estimates of HIV and syphilis prevalence. Between February and April 2005, we used RDS to recruit IDUs in Tijuana (15 seeds, 207 recruits) and Cd. Juárez (9 seeds, 197 recruits), Mexico for a cross-sectional study of behavioral and contextual factors associated with HIV, HCV and syphilis infections. All subjects provided informed consent, an anonymous interview, and a venous blood sample for serologic testing of HIV, HCV, HBV (Cd. Juárez only) and syphilis antibody. Log-linear models were used to analyze the association between the state of the recruiter and that of the recruitee in the referral chains, and population estimates of the presence of syphilis antibody were obtained, correcting for biased sampling using RDS-based estimators. Sampling of the targeted 200 recruits per city was achieved rapidly (2 months in Tijuana, 2 weeks in Cd. Juárez). After excluding seeds and missing data, the sample prevalence of HCV, HIV and syphilis were 96.6, 1.9 and 13.5% respectively in Tijuana, and 95.3, 4.1, and 2.7% respectively in Cd. Juárez (where HBV prevalence was 84.7%). Syphilis cases were clustered in recruitment trees. RDS-corrected estimates of syphilis antibody prevalence ranged from 12.8 to 26.8% in Tijuana and from 2.9 to 15.6% in Ciudad Juárez, depending on how recruitment patterns were modeled, and assumptions about how network size affected an individual’s probability of being included in the sample. RDS was an effective method to rapidly recruit IDUs in these cities. Although the frequency of HIV was low, syphilis prevalence was high, particularly in Tijuana. RDS

  13. Applying a correction procedure to the prevalence estimates of overweight and obesity in the German part of the HBSC study

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Prevalence rates for overweight and obesity based on self-reported height and weight are underestimated, whereas the prevalence rate for underweight is slightly overestimated. Therefore a correction is needed. Aim of this study is to apply correction procedures to the prevalence rates developed on basis of (self-reported and measured) data from the representative German National Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents (KiGGS) to (self-reported) data from the German Health Behaviour in School Aged Children (HBSC) study to determine whether correction leads to higher prevalence estimates of overweight and obesity as well as lower prevalence rates for underweight. Methods BMI classifications based on self-reported and measured height and weight from a subsample of the KiGGS study (2,565 adolescents aged 11–15) were used to estimate two different correction formulas. The first and the second correction function are described. Furthermore, the both formulas were applied to the prevalence rates from the HBSC study (7,274 adolescents aged 11–15) which are based on self-reports collected via self-administered questionnaires. Results After applying the first correction function to self-reported data of the HBSC study, the prevalence rates of overweight and obesity increased from 5.5% to 7.8% (compared to 10.4% in the KiGGS study) and 2.7% to 3.8% (compared to 7.8% in the KiGGS study), respectively, whereas the corrected prevalence rates of underweight and severe underweight decreased from 8.0% to 6.7% (compared to 5.7% in the KiGGS study) and from 5.5% to 3.3% (compared to 2.4% in the KiGGS study), respectively. Application of the second correction function, which additionally considers body image, led to further slight corrections with an increase of the prevalence rates for overweight to 7.9% and for obese to 3.9%. Conclusion Subjective BMI can be used to determine the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and

  14. Alternatives for logistic regression in cross-sectional studies: an empirical comparison of models that directly estimate the prevalence ratio

    PubMed Central

    Barros, Aluísio JD; Hirakata, Vânia N

    2003-01-01

    Background Cross-sectional studies with binary outcomes analyzed by logistic regression are frequent in the epidemiological literature. However, the odds ratio can importantly overestimate the prevalence ratio, the measure of choice in these studies. Also, controlling for confounding is not equivalent for the two measures. In this paper we explore alternatives for modeling data of such studies with techniques that directly estimate the prevalence ratio. Methods We compared Cox regression with constant time at risk, Poisson regression and log-binomial regression against the standard Mantel-Haenszel estimators. Models with robust variance estimators in Cox and Poisson regressions and variance corrected by the scale parameter in Poisson regression were also evaluated. Results Three outcomes, from a cross-sectional study carried out in Pelotas, Brazil, with different levels of prevalence were explored: weight-for-age deficit (4%), asthma (31%) and mother in a paid job (52%). Unadjusted Cox/Poisson regression and Poisson regression with scale parameter adjusted by deviance performed worst in terms of interval estimates. Poisson regression with scale parameter adjusted by χ2 showed variable performance depending on the outcome prevalence. Cox/Poisson regression with robust variance, and log-binomial regression performed equally well when the model was correctly specified. Conclusions Cox or Poisson regression with robust variance and log-binomial regression provide correct estimates and are a better alternative for the analysis of cross-sectional studies with binary outcomes than logistic regression, since the prevalence ratio is more interpretable and easier to communicate to non-specialists than the odds ratio. However, precautions are needed to avoid estimation problems in specific situations. PMID:14567763

  15. Higher-order Multivariable Polynomial Regression to Estimate Human Affective States.

    PubMed

    Wei, Jie; Chen, Tong; Liu, Guangyuan; Yang, Jiemin

    2016-03-21

    From direct observations, facial, vocal, gestural, physiological, and central nervous signals, estimating human affective states through computational models such as multivariate linear-regression analysis, support vector regression, and artificial neural network, have been proposed in the past decade. In these models, linear models are generally lack of precision because of ignoring intrinsic nonlinearities of complex psychophysiological processes; and nonlinear models commonly adopt complicated algorithms. To improve accuracy and simplify model, we introduce a new computational modeling method named as higher-order multivariable polynomial regression to estimate human affective states. The study employs standardized pictures in the International Affective Picture System to induce thirty subjects' affective states, and obtains pure affective patterns of skin conductance as input variables to the higher-order multivariable polynomial model for predicting affective valence and arousal. Experimental results show that our method is able to obtain efficient correlation coefficients of 0.98 and 0.96 for estimation of affective valence and arousal, respectively. Moreover, the method may provide certain indirect evidences that valence and arousal have their brain's motivational circuit origins. Thus, the proposed method can serve as a novel one for efficiently estimating human affective states.

  16. Higher-order Multivariable Polynomial Regression to Estimate Human Affective States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Jie; Chen, Tong; Liu, Guangyuan; Yang, Jiemin

    2016-03-01

    From direct observations, facial, vocal, gestural, physiological, and central nervous signals, estimating human affective states through computational models such as multivariate linear-regression analysis, support vector regression, and artificial neural network, have been proposed in the past decade. In these models, linear models are generally lack of precision because of ignoring intrinsic nonlinearities of complex psychophysiological processes; and nonlinear models commonly adopt complicated algorithms. To improve accuracy and simplify model, we introduce a new computational modeling method named as higher-order multivariable polynomial regression to estimate human affective states. The study employs standardized pictures in the International Affective Picture System to induce thirty subjects’ affective states, and obtains pure affective patterns of skin conductance as input variables to the higher-order multivariable polynomial model for predicting affective valence and arousal. Experimental results show that our method is able to obtain efficient correlation coefficients of 0.98 and 0.96 for estimation of affective valence and arousal, respectively. Moreover, the method may provide certain indirect evidences that valence and arousal have their brain’s motivational circuit origins. Thus, the proposed method can serve as a novel one for efficiently estimating human affective states.

  17. Higher-order Multivariable Polynomial Regression to Estimate Human Affective States

    PubMed Central

    Wei, Jie; Chen, Tong; Liu, Guangyuan; Yang, Jiemin

    2016-01-01

    From direct observations, facial, vocal, gestural, physiological, and central nervous signals, estimating human affective states through computational models such as multivariate linear-regression analysis, support vector regression, and artificial neural network, have been proposed in the past decade. In these models, linear models are generally lack of precision because of ignoring intrinsic nonlinearities of complex psychophysiological processes; and nonlinear models commonly adopt complicated algorithms. To improve accuracy and simplify model, we introduce a new computational modeling method named as higher-order multivariable polynomial regression to estimate human affective states. The study employs standardized pictures in the International Affective Picture System to induce thirty subjects’ affective states, and obtains pure affective patterns of skin conductance as input variables to the higher-order multivariable polynomial model for predicting affective valence and arousal. Experimental results show that our method is able to obtain efficient correlation coefficients of 0.98 and 0.96 for estimation of affective valence and arousal, respectively. Moreover, the method may provide certain indirect evidences that valence and arousal have their brain’s motivational circuit origins. Thus, the proposed method can serve as a novel one for efficiently estimating human affective states. PMID:26996254

  18. SAME-GENDER SEX IN THE UNITED STATES IMPACT OF T-ACASI ON PREVALENCE ESTIMATES

    PubMed Central

    VILLARROEL, MARIA A.; TURNER, CHARLES F.; EGGLESTON, ELIZABETH; AL-TAYYIB, ALIA; ROGERS, SUSAN M.; ROMAN, ANTHONY M.; COOLEY, PHILIP C.; GORDEK, HARPER

    2011-01-01

    Well-conducted telephone surveys provide an economical means of estimating the prevalence of sexual and reproductive behaviors in a population. There is, however, a nontrivial potential for bias since respondents must report sensitive information to a human interviewer. The National STD and Behavior Measurement Experiment (NSBME) evaluates a new survey technology—telephone audio computer-assisted self-interviewing (T-ACASI)—that eliminates this requirement. The NSBME embedded a randomized experiment in a survey of probability samples of 1,543 U.S. and 744 Baltimore adults ages 18 to 45. Compared with NSBME respondents interviewed by human interviewers, respondents interviewed by T-ACASI were 1.5 to 1.6 times more likely to report same-gender sexual attraction, experience, and genital contact. The impact of T-ACASI was more pronounced (odds ratio = 2.5) for residents of locales that have historically been less tolerant of same-gender sexual behaviors and for respondents in households with children (odds ratio = 3.0). PMID:21998488

  19. Bayesian estimation of prevalence of paratuberculosis in dairy herds enrolled in a voluntary Johne's Disease Control Programme in Ireland.

    PubMed

    McAloon, Conor G; Doherty, Michael L; Whyte, Paul; O'Grady, Luke; More, Simon J; Messam, Locksley L McV; Good, Margaret; Mullowney, Peter; Strain, Sam; Green, Martin J

    2016-06-01

    Bovine paratuberculosis is a disease characterised by chronic granulomatous enteritis which manifests clinically as a protein-losing enteropathy causing diarrhoea, hypoproteinaemia, emaciation and, eventually death. Some evidence exists to suggest a possible zoonotic link and a national voluntary Johne's Disease Control Programme was initiated by Animal Health Ireland in 2013. The objective of this study was to estimate herd-level true prevalence (HTP) and animal-level true prevalence (ATP) of paratuberculosis in Irish herds enrolled in the national voluntary JD control programme during 2013-14. Two datasets were used in this study. The first dataset had been collected in Ireland during 2005 (5822 animals from 119 herds), and was used to construct model priors. Model priors were updated with a primary (2013-14) dataset which included test records from 99,101 animals in 1039 dairy herds and was generated as part of the national voluntary JD control programme. The posterior estimate of HTP from the final Bayesian model was 0.23-0.34 with a 95% probability. Across all herds, the median ATP was found to be 0.032 (0.009, 0.145). This study represents the first use of Bayesian methodology to estimate the prevalence of paratuberculosis in Irish dairy herds. The HTP estimate was higher than previous Irish estimates but still lower than estimates from other major dairy producing countries.

  20. Estimating the Prevalence of Anxiety and Mood Disorders in an Adolescent General Population: An Evaluation of the GHQ12

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mann, Robert E.; Paglia-Boak, Angela; Adlaf, Edward M.; Beitchman, Joseph; Wolfe, David; Wekerle, Christine; Hamilton, Hayley A.; Rehm, Jurgen

    2011-01-01

    Anxiety and mood disorders (AMD) may be more common among adolescents than previously thought, and epidemiological research would benefit from an easily-administered measure of AMD. We assessed the ability of the GHQ12 to estimate the prevalence of AMD in a representative sample of Ontario adolescents. Data were based on self-administered…

  1. Comparison of Paper-and-Pencil versus Web Administration of the Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS): Risk Behavior Prevalence Estimates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eaton, Danice K.; Brener, Nancy D.; Kann, Laura; Denniston, Maxine M.; McManus, Tim; Kyle, Tonja M.; Roberts, Alice M.; Flint, Katherine H.; Ross, James G.

    2010-01-01

    The authors examined whether paper-and-pencil and Web surveys administered in the school setting yield equivalent risk behavior prevalence estimates. Data were from a methods study conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in spring 2008. Intact classes of 9th- or 10th-grade students were assigned randomly to complete a…

  2. Social, Emotional, and Academic Competence among Children Who Have Had Contact with Child Protective Services: Prevalence and Stability Estimates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jaffee, Sara R.; Gallop, Robert

    2007-01-01

    Objective: To estimate the prevalence and stability of social, emotional, and academic competence in a nationally representative sample of children involved with child protective services. Method: Children were assessed as part of the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being. Children (N = 2,065) ranged in age from 8 to 16 years and were…

  3. Estimating the prevalence and incidence of type 2 diabetes using population level pharmacy claims data: a cross-sectional study

    PubMed Central

    Sinnott, Sarah-Jo; McHugh, Sheena; Whelton, Helen; Layte, Richard; Barron, Steve; Kearney, Patricia M

    2017-01-01

    Objective To estimate the prevalence and incidence of type 2 diabetes using a national pharmacy claims database. Research design and methods We used data from the Health Service Executive-Primary Care Reimbursement Service database in Ireland for this cross-sectional study. Prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes were individuals using an oral hypoglycemic agent, irrespective of insulin use, in 2012. Incident cases were individuals using an oral hypoglycemic agent in 2012 who had not used one in the past. Population level estimates were calculated and stratified by age and sex. Results In 2012, there were 114 957 prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes giving a population prevalence of 2.51% (95% CI 2.49% to 2.52%). Among adults (≥15yrs), this was 3.16% (95% CI 3.15% to 3.18%). The highest prevalence was in those aged 70+ years (12.1%). 21 574 people developed type 2 diabetes in 2012 giving an overall incidence of 0.48% (95% CI 0.48% to 0.49%). In adults, this was 0.60% (95% CI 0.60% to 0.61%). Incidence rose with age to a maximum of 2.08% (95% CI 2.02% to 2.15%) in people aged 65–69 years. Men had a higher prevalence (2.96% vs 2.04%) and incidence (0.54% vs 0.41%) of type 2 diabetes than women. Conclusions Pharmacy claims data allow estimates of objectively defined type 2 diabetes at the population level using up-to-date data. These estimates can be generated quickly to inform health service planning or to evaluate the impact of population level interventions. PMID:28123753

  4. National estimates of Australian gambling prevalence: f indings from a dual‐frame omnibus survey

    PubMed Central

    Youssef, G. J.; Jackson, A. C.; Pennay, D. W.; Francis, K. L.; Pennay, A.; Lubman, D. I.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Background, aims and design The increase in mobile telephone‐only households may be a source of bias for traditional landline gambling prevalence surveys. Aims were to: (1) identify Australian gambling participation and problem gambling prevalence using a dual‐frame (50% landline and 50% mobile telephone) computer‐assisted telephone interviewing methodology; (2) explore the predictors of sample frame and telephone status; and (3) explore the degree to which sample frame and telephone status moderate the relationships between respondent characteristics and problem gambling. Setting and participants A total of 2000 adult respondents residing in Australia were interviewed from March to April 2013. Measurements Participation in multiple gambling activities and Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI). Findings Estimates were: gambling participation [63.9%, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 61.4–66.3], problem gambling (0.4%, 95% CI = 0.2–0.8), moderate‐risk gambling (1.9%, 95% CI = 1.3–2.6) and low‐risk gambling (3.0%, 95% CI = 2.2–4.0). Relative to the landline frame, the mobile frame was more likely to gamble on horse/greyhound races [odds ratio (OR) = 1.4], casino table games (OR = 5.0), sporting events (OR = 2.2), private games (OR = 1.9) and the internet (OR = 6.5); less likely to gamble on lotteries (OR = 0.6); and more likely to gamble on five or more activities (OR = 2.4), display problem gambling (OR = 6.4) and endorse PGSI items (OR = 2.4‐6.1). Only casino table gambling (OR = 2.9) and internet gambling (OR = 3.5) independently predicted mobile frame membership. Telephone status (landline frame versus mobile dual users and mobile‐only users) displayed similar findings. Finally, sample frame and/or telephone status moderated the relationship between gender, relationship status, health and problem gambling (OR = 2.9–7.6). Conclusion Given expected future increases in the

  5. Effect of nutrition survey 'cleaning criteria' on estimates of malnutrition prevalence and disease burden: secondary data analysis.

    PubMed

    Crowe, Sonya; Seal, Andrew; Grijalva-Eternod, Carlos; Kerac, Marko

    2014-01-01

    Tackling childhood malnutrition is a global health priority. A key indicator is the estimated prevalence of malnutrition, measured by nutrition surveys. Most aspects of survey design are standardised, but data 'cleaning criteria' are not. These aim to exclude extreme values which may represent measurement or data-entry errors. The effect of different cleaning criteria on malnutrition prevalence estimates was unknown. We applied five commonly used data cleaning criteria (WHO 2006; EPI-Info; WHO 1995 fixed; WHO 1995 flexible; SMART) to 21 national Demographic and Health Survey datasets. These included a total of 163,228 children, aged 6-59 months. We focused on wasting (low weight-for-height), a key indicator for treatment programmes. Choice of cleaning criteria had a marked effect: SMART were least inclusive, resulting in the lowest reported malnutrition prevalence, while WHO 2006 were most inclusive, resulting in the highest. Across the 21 countries, the proportion of records excluded was 3 to 5 times greater when using SMART compared to WHO 2006 criteria, resulting in differences in the estimated prevalence of total wasting of between 0.5 and 3.8%, and differences in severe wasting of 0.4-3.9%. The magnitude of difference was associated with the standard deviation of the survey sample, a statistic that can reflect both population heterogeneity and data quality. Using these results to estimate case-loads for treatment programmes resulted in large differences for all countries. Wasting prevalence and caseload estimations are strongly influenced by choice of cleaning criterion. Because key policy and programming decisions depend on these statistics, variations in analytical practice could lead to inconsistent and potentially inappropriate implementation of malnutrition treatment programmes. We therefore call for mandatory reporting of cleaning criteria use so that results can be compared and interpreted appropriately. International consensus is urgently needed

  6. Prevalence of gender disparities and predictors affecting the occurrence of mild cognitive impairment (MCI).

    PubMed

    Lee, Lai Kuan; Shahar, Suzana; Chin, Ai-Vyrn; Mohd Yusoff, Noor Aini; Rajab, Norfadilah; Aziz, Safiyyah Abdul

    2012-01-01

    The aims were to investigate the prevalence of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) within gender disparities in Malaysian older adults, and to determine the predictors of MCI according to gender disparities. A community-based sample of urban, multiethnic dwelling elderly aged 60 years of age and above from Cheras, Kuala Lumpur was recruited. Prevalence of all-type MCI, amnestic-type MCI (am-MCI) and non-amnestic-type MCI (nam-MCI) was assessed using comprehensive neuropsychological batteries. The association between demography, socioeconomic status, lifestyle practices, and nutritional status and health risk factors with MCI were examined. Predictors of MCI occurrence between gender disparities were determined. The prevalence of all-type MCI, am-MCI and nam-MCI was 21.1%, 15.4% and 5.7%, respectively. Binary logistic regression indicated that hypercholesterolemia is the significant predictor for MCI in men after adjustment for age, ethnicity and total years of education. While, in women, MCI was best predicted by married status, without exercise practice, overweight and obesity. These results suggest that approximately one-fifth of the studied elderly people had MCI. Predictors for MCI are totally different between men and women. It is critical to identify those at higher risk for MCI in order to implement preventative measures to delay or reverse this abnormal condition.

  7. Workplace incivility affecting CRNAs: a study of prevalence, severity, and consequences with proposed interventions.

    PubMed

    Elmblad, Ray; Kodjebacheva, Gergana; Lebeck, Lynn

    2014-12-01

    Incivility in healthcare settings has potentially detrimental effects on healthcare providers and patient safety. This study examines the prevalence of incivility and the influence of workplace incivility on burnout among Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetists (CRNAs) in Michigan. It proposes interventions to prevent and manage incivility. The Nursing Incivility Scale and the Copenhagen Burnout Inventory were used to measure workplace incivility and professional burnout. Qualitative data were also collected to provide recommendations to address workplace incivility. The most notable sources of workplace incivility were general employee personnel or nonemployee individuals and physicians. A lesser prevalent source of incivility was other CRNA practitioners. The least prevalent source of incivility was CRNA supervisors. A statistically significant, direct relationship existed between workplace incivility and professional burnout. The only statistically significant factor contributing to professional burnout was experiencing workplace incivility, independent of other measured factors. The most notable recommendation was use of a zero tolerance policy for practice, regardless of title or role, in employment situations. Incivility is a major concern among CRNAs.

  8. Hepatitis C in HIV-infected individuals: a systematic review and meta-analysis of estimated prevalence in Africa

    PubMed Central

    Azevedo, Tiago Castro Lopes; Zwahlen, Marcel; Rauch, Andri; Egger, Matthias; Wandeler, Gilles

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Although hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening is recommended for all HIV-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy, data on epidemiologic characteristics of HCV infection in resource-limited settings are scarce. Methods We searched PubMed and EMBASE for studies assessing the prevalence of HCV infection among HIV-infected individuals in Africa and extracted data on laboratory methods used. Prevalence estimates from individual studies were combined for each country using random-effects meta-analysis. The importance of study design, population and setting as well as type of test (anti-HCV antibody tests and polymerase chain reactions) was examined with meta-regression. Results Three randomized controlled trials, 28 cohort studies and 121 cross-sectional analyses with 108,180 HIV-infected individuals from 35 countries were included. The majority of data came from outpatient populations (55%), followed by blood donors (15%) and pregnant women (14%). Based on estimates from 159 study populations, anti-HCV positivity prevalence ranged between 3.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8–4.7) in Southern Africa and 42.3% (95% CI 4.1–80.5) in North Africa. Study design, type of setting and age distribution did not influence this prevalence significantly. The prevalence of replicating HCV infection, estimated from data of 29 cohorts, was 2.0% (95% CI 1.5–2.6). Ten studies from nine countries reported the HCV genotype of 74 samples, 53% were genotype 1, 24% genotype 2, 14% genotype 4 and 9% genotypes 3, 5 or 6. Conclusions The prevalence of anti-HCV antibodies is high in HIV-infected patients in Africa, but replicating HCV infection is rare and varies widely across countries. PMID:27293220

  9. Estimating the Prevalence of Adolescent Nonverbal Peer Pressures: An Exploratory Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duryea, Elias J.; Herrera, Denise; Parkes, Jay

    2002-01-01

    Surveyed ninth graders regarding the prevalence of nonverbal pressures in their daily experiences, noting gender differences. Students reported high levels of exposure to and conformity with nonverbal pressure, with differences in prevalence of receiving threatening gestures, space invasion from males, trust toward deceptive smiles from males, and…

  10. Incidence and prevalence of Toxoplasma gondii infection in women in France, 1980-2020: model-based estimation.

    PubMed

    Nogareda, F; Le Strat, Y; Villena, I; De Valk, H; Goulet, V

    2014-08-01

    Toxoplasmosis is a worldwide zoonosis due to Toxoplasma gondii, a ubiquitous protozoan parasite of warm-blooded animals including humans. In pregnant women, primary infection can cause congenital toxoplasmosis resulting in severe malformations in the newborn. Since 1978, public health authorities in France have implemented a congenital toxoplasmosis prevention programme, including monthly serological screening of all seronegative pregnant women, and treatment in case of seroconversion. However, this programme does not produce systematic surveillance data on incidence and prevalence. Our objective was to estimate the incidence and prevalence of T. gondii infection, and the incidence of seroconversion during pregnancy in women in France. We used a catalytic model to estimate incidence and prevalence of Toxoplasma infection between 1980 and 2020 in women of childbearing age. We used age- and time-specific seroprevalence data obtained from the National Perinatal Surveys (NPS) conducted in 1995, 2003 and 2010. We assumed that incidence depends both on age and calendar time, and can be expressed as the product of two unknown functions. We also estimated incidence of seroconversion during pregnancy in 2010 from the NPS and the National Surveillance of Congenital Toxoplasmosis (ToxoSurv). We combined data of 42208 women aged 15-45 years with serology available from the three NPS. For women aged 30 years the modelled incidence decreased from 7·5/1000 susceptible women in 1980 to 3·5/1000 in 2000. In 2010 the incidence was 2·4/1000. The predicted incidence and prevalence for 2020 was 1·6/1000 and 27%, respectively. The incidence of seroconversion during pregnancy in 2010 was estimated at 2·1/1000 susceptible pregnant women (95% CI 1·3-3·1) from the NPS and 1·9 (95% CI 1·8-2·1) from ToxoSurv. Incidence and prevalence of Toxoplasma infection has decreased markedly during the last 30 years. This decrease may be explained by a lower exposure to the parasite by changes

  11. Childhood sexual abuse by representatives of the Roman Catholic Church: a prevalence estimate among the Dutch population.

    PubMed

    Langeland, Willemien; Hoogendoorn, Adriaan W; Mager, Daniel; Smit, Jan H; Draijer, Nel

    2015-08-01

    Estimates of the extent of childhood sexual abuse (CSA) within in the Roman Catholic Church (RCC) in the general population are difficult to find. The independent Commission of Inquiry into sexual abuse of minors in the RCC in the Netherlands collected population-based data to estimate its prevalence. A large random online population sample was surveyed using a two-phase stratified sampling procedure. In Phase 1, 34,267 subjects aged 40 years and older were screened for childhood exposure to sexual abuse by non-family members, a history of institutionalization and a Roman Catholic upbringing. In Phase 2, a stratified subset of 2,462 subjects was assessed to obtain more detailed target information about sexual abuse reports within the RCC. We employed multiple imputation for the estimation of RCC CSA in the original Phase 1 sample. The prevalence of non-familial CSA in general (14.0%) was higher among women (17.2%) than among men (10.6%). The prevalence of CSA within the Dutch RCC (1.7%) was higher among men (2.7%) than among women (0.7%). As expected, older subjects reported more often CSA in the RCC than their younger counterparts. Respondents who stayed for some time in RCC run institutions for education or child protection had a higher risk to report sexual abuse. Although sexual abuse of minors by representatives of the RCC was a structural problem during a period that the Church was highly influential in the Netherlands, the estimated prevalence of the phenomenon is only a fraction of the prevalence rate of non-familial CSA.

  12. Prevalence of HBV genotypes in South American immigrants affected by HBV-related chronic active hepatitis.

    PubMed

    Palumbo, Emilio; Scotto, Gaetano; Faleo, Giuseppina; Cibelli, Donatella Concetta; Angarano, Gioacchino

    2007-06-01

    This study evaluated the prevalence of HBV infection in a population of South American immigrants in Italy and to determine in patients with detectable serum HBV-DNA the HBV genotypes. Between April 2005 and April 2006 a total of 130 South American immigrants were tested for HBsAg. In HBsAg positive patients the biochemical and virological activity of infection and the possible presence of co-infections (HCV, HDV, HIV) were evaluated. In patients with detectable serum HBV DNA, the HBV genotype was determined by INNOLiPA. Among the 130 subjects tested, 14 (10.7%) resulted HBsAg positive. All were men, with a mean age of 22 years (range 19-37) and 12 (85.7 %) came from Brazil, while 2 (14.3%) came from Ecuador. All patients infected by HBV had elevated alanine-aminotransferase serum levels (mean level was 127 IU/L, range 74-312) and serum HBV DNA detectable by PCR-Real Time (mean level 1,037,652 copies/mL, range 19,876-1,377,648). Genotype distribution was as follow: genotype D, 9 (64.2%), genotype A, 5 (35.8%). All patients infected by genotype D came from Brazil, while among the patients infected by genotype A, three came from Brazil and two from Ecuador. Our study evidences a moderate prevalence of HBV-infection in South American immigrants with the identification of two genotypes, D and A. These genotypes are not the most prevalent in the South America and this is probably the expression of a possible geographical redistribution of HBV genotypes.

  13. How does relaxing the algorithm for autism affect DSM-V prevalence rates?

    PubMed

    Matson, Johnny L; Hattier, Megan A; Williams, Lindsey W

    2012-08-01

    Although it is still unclear what causes autism spectrum disorders (ASDs), over time researchers and clinicians have become more precise with detecting and diagnosing ASD. Many diagnoses, however, are based on the criteria established within the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM); thus, any change in these diagnostic criteria can have a great effect upon children with ASD and their families. It is predicted that the prevalence of ASD diagnoses will dramatically decrease with the adoption of the proposed DSM-5 criteria in 2013. The aim of this current study was to inspect the changes in prevalence first using a diagnostic criteria set which was modified slightly from the DSM-5 criteria (Modified-1 criteria) and again using a set of criteria which was relaxed even a bit more (Modified-2 criteria). Modified-1 resulted in 33.77 % fewer toddlers being diagnosed with ASD compared to the DSM-IV, while Modified-2 resulted in only a 17.98 % decrease in ASD diagnoses. Children diagnosed with the DSM-5 criteria exhibited the greatest levels of autism symptomatology, but the Mod-1, Mod-2, and DSM-IV groups still demonstrated significant impairments. Implications of these findings are discussed.

  14. The prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis in Estonia: an estimate based on rheumatology patients' database.

    PubMed

    Otsa, K; Tammaru, M; Vorobjov, S; Esko, M; Pärsik, E; Lang, K

    2013-04-01

    Sound epidemiological data are a basic requirement for decision making on the allocation of health care resources. Unfortunately, this is not the case in Estonia, where the paucity of epidemiological data has impeded health care planning for rheumatic conditions. The current paper presents the first effort to explore the epidemiology of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in Estonia. Electronic databases of all rheumatology units of Harju County, three national and one private, were searched for the records of RA (ICD-10 diagnoses M05 and M06.0) patients who had visited a rheumatologist during 2006 or 2007. Prevalence of RA was calculated for the age 20 years and older and for subsets according to age and gender, using the numbers from the patients' database in the numerator and the corresponding population numbers in the denominator. The total number of prevalent RA cases was 1,897, of which 85 % (n = 1,605) were women. The overall crude period prevalence 2006-2007 of RA in Harju County for the age group 20 years and older was 0.46 %. RA prevalence for both sexes increased with age until the age of 70-79 years and decreased subsequently. Prevalence of RA was significantly higher for women compared with men in all age groups. The prevalence of RA among women and men 20 years and older was 0.70 % (6.68-7.37) and 0.16 % (1.42, 1.79), respectively. Age-standardized (European population) prevalence rate was 0.44 %. The results are concordant with epidemiological data on RA prevalence derived recently in other European countries.

  15. National estimates of exposure to traumatic events and PTSD prevalence using DSM-IV and DSM-5 criteria.

    PubMed

    Kilpatrick, Dean G; Resnick, Heidi S; Milanak, Melissa E; Miller, Mark W; Keyes, Katherine M; Friedman, Matthew J

    2013-10-01

    Prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) defined according to the American Psychiatric Association's Diagnostic and Statistical Manual fifth edition (DSM-5; 2013) and fourth edition (DSM-IV; 1994) was compared in a national sample of U.S. adults (N = 2,953) recruited from an online panel. Exposure to traumatic events, PTSD symptoms, and functional impairment were assessed online using a highly structured, self-administered survey. Traumatic event exposure using DSM-5 criteria was high (89.7%), and exposure to multiple traumatic event types was the norm. PTSD caseness was determined using Same Event (i.e., all symptom criteria met to the same event type) and Composite Event (i.e., symptom criteria met to a combination of event types) definitions. Lifetime, past-12-month, and past 6-month PTSD prevalence using the Same Event definition for DSM-5 was 8.3%, 4.7%, and 3.8% respectively. All 6 DSM-5 prevalence estimates were slightly lower than their DSM-IV counterparts, although only 2 of these differences were statistically significant. DSM-5 PTSD prevalence was higher among women than among men, and prevalence increased with greater traumatic event exposure. Major reasons individuals met DSM-IV criteria, but not DSM-5 criteria were the exclusion of nonaccidental, nonviolent deaths from Criterion A, and the new requirement of at least 1 active avoidance symptom.

  16. National Estimates of Exposure to Traumatic Events and PTSD Prevalence Using DSM-IV and DSM-5 Criteria

    PubMed Central

    Kilpatrick, Dean G.; Resnick, Heidi S.; Milanak, Melissa E.; Miller, Mark W.; Keyes, Katherine M.; Friedman, Matthew J.

    2014-01-01

    Prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) defined according to the American Psychiatric Association’s Diagnostic and Statistical Manual fifth edition (DSM-5; 2013) and fourth edition (DSM-IV; 1994) was compared in a national sample of U.S. adults (N = 2,953) recruited from an online panel. Exposure to traumatic events, PTSD symptoms, and functional impairment were assessed online using a highly structured, self-administered survey. Traumatic event exposure using DSM-5 criteria was high (89.7%), and exposure to multiple traumatic event types was the norm. PTSD caseness was determined using Same Event (i.e., all symptom criteria met to the same event type) and Composite Event (i.e., symptom criteria met to a combination of event types) definitions. Lifetime, past-12-month, and past 6-month PTSD prevalence using the Same Event definition for DSM-5 was 8.3%, 4.7%, and 3.8% respectively. All 6 DSM-5 prevalence estimates were slightly lower than their DSM-IV counterparts, although only 2 of these differences were statistically significant. DSM-5 PTSD prevalence was higher among women than among men, and prevalence increased with greater traumatic event exposure. Major reasons individuals met DSM-IV criteria, but not DSM-5 criteria were the exclusion of nonaccidental, nonviolent deaths from Criterion A, and the new requirement of at least 1 active avoidance symptom. PMID:24151000

  17. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

    PubMed

    Grovenburg, Troy W; Monteith, Kevin L; Jacques, Christopher N; Klaver, Robert W; DePerno, Christopher S; Brinkman, Todd J; Monteith, Kyle B; Gilbert, Sophie L; Smith, Joshua B; Bleich, Vernon C; Swanson, Christopher C; Jenks, Jonathan A

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  18. Re-Evaluating Neonatal-Age Models for Ungulates: Does Model Choice Affect Survival Estimates?

    PubMed Central

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  19. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: Does model choice affect survival estimates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  20. Spatial predictions of Rhodesian Human African Trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness) prevalence in Kaberamaido and Dokolo, two newly affected districts of Uganda.

    PubMed

    Batchelor, Nicola A; Atkinson, Peter M; Gething, Peter W; Picozzi, Kim; Fèvre, Eric M; Kakembo, Abbas S L; Welburn, Susan C

    2009-12-15

    The continued northwards spread of Rhodesian sleeping sickness or Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT) within Uganda is raising concerns of overlap with the Gambian form of the disease. Disease convergence would result in compromised diagnosis and treatment for HAT. Spatial determinants for HAT are poorly understood across small areas. This study examines the relationships between Rhodesian HAT and several environmental, climatic and social factors in two newly affected districts, Kaberamaido and Dokolo. A one-step logistic regression analysis of HAT prevalence and a two-step logistic regression method permitted separate analysis of both HAT occurrence and HAT prevalence. Both the occurrence and prevalence of HAT were negatively correlated with distance to the closest livestock market in all models. The significance of distance to the closest livestock market strongly indicates that HAT may have been introduced to this previously unaffected area via the movement of infected, untreated livestock from endemic areas. This illustrates the importance of the animal reservoir in disease transmission, and highlights the need for trypanosomiasis control in livestock and the stringent implementation of regulations requiring the treatment of cattle prior to sale at livestock markets to prevent any further spread of Rhodesian HAT within Uganda.

  1. Estimation of physical activity and prevalence of excessive body mass in rural and urban Polish adolescents.

    PubMed

    Hoffmann, Karolina; Bryl, Wiesław; Marcinkowski, Jerzy T; Strażyńska, Agata; Pupek-Musialik, Danuta

    2011-01-01

    Excessive body mass and sedentary lifestyle are well-known factors for cardiovascular risk, which when present in the young population may have significant health consequences, both in the short- and long-term. The aim of the study was to evaluate the prevalence of overweight, obesity, and sedentary lifestyle in two teenage populations living in an urban or rural area. An additional aim was to compare their physical activity. The study was designed and conducted in 2009. The study population consisted of 116 students aged 15-17 years - 61 males (52.7%) and 55 females (47.3%), randomly selected from public junior grammar schools and secondary schools in the Poznań Region. There were 61 respondents from a rural area - 32 males (52.5%) and 29 females (47.5%), whereas 55 teenagers lived in an urban area - 29 males (47.5%) and 26 females (47.3%). Students were asked to complete a questionnaire, which was especially prepared for the study and contained questions concerning health and lifestyle. A basic physical examination was carried out in all 116 students, including measurements of the anthropometric features. Calculations were performed using the statistical package STATISTICA (data analysis software system), Version. 8.0. When comparing these two populations, no statistically significant differences were detected in the ratio of weight-growth, with the exception of the fact that the urban youths had a larger hip circumference (97.1 v. 94.3 cm, p<0.05). In the group of urban students there were also significantly more subjects with excessive body weight (27.3% v. 24.6%, p<0.05), with a predominant proportion of obese students (60%). There were significantly more male obese individuals (66.7%). In the population of rural teenagers, obesity rate did not differ statistically significantly from the percentage of overweight (11.5% v. 13.1%, p>0.05), the problem of excessive weight affected both sexes in a similar proportion (25% boys and 24.1% girls, p>0.05). In this

  2. Estimation of chronic kidney disease incidence from prevalence and mortality data in American Indians with type 2 diabetes

    PubMed Central

    Nelson, Robert G.; Brinks, Ralph

    2017-01-01

    The objective was to estimate chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence rates from prevalence and mortality data, and compare the estimates with observed (true) incidence rates in a well-characterized population with diabetes. Pima Indians aged 20 years and older with type 2 diabetes were followed from 1982 through 2007. CKD was defined by estimated GFR (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.72 m2 or albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) ≥30 mg/g. True CKD incidence and mortality rates were computed for the whole study period, and prevalence for the intervals 1982–1994 and 1995–2007. Estimated age-sex stratified CKD incidence rates were computed using illness-death models of the observed prevalences, and of the whole-period mortality rate ratio of CKD to non-CKD persons. Among 1201 participants, 616 incident events of CKD occurred during a median follow-up of 5.6 years. Observed CKD prevalence was 56.9% (95%CI 53.7–60.0) and 48.0% (95%CI 45.2–50.8) in women; 54.0% (95%CI 49.9–58.1) and 49.6% (95%CI 46.0–53.3) in men, across the two periods. Mortality rate was 2.5 (95%CI 1.9–3.3) times as high in women with CKD and 1.6 (95%CI 1.3–2.1) times as high in men with CKD, compared to women or men without CKD. In women, estimated CKD incidence increased linearly from 25.6 (95%CI 4.2–53.0) to 128.6 (95%CI 77.1–196.6) with each 5-year age group up to 69 years, and to 99.8 (95%CI 38.7–204.7) at age ≥70. In men, estimated CKD incidence increased form 28.5 (95%CI 3.8–71.2) at age 20–24 years to 118.7 (95%CI 23.6–336.7) at age ≥70. Age-sex-stratified estimated incidence reflected the magnitude and directional trend of the true incidence and were similar to the true incidence rates (p>0.05 for difference) except for age 20–24 in women (p = 0.008) and age 25–29 in men (p = 0.002). In conclusion, the estimated and observed incidence rates of CKD agree well over 25 years of observation in this well characterized population with type 2 diabetes. PMID:28166298

  3. Tuberculosis Infection in the United States: Prevalence Estimates from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2011-2012

    PubMed Central

    Miramontes, Roque; Hill, Andrew N.; Yelk Woodruff, Rachel S.; Lambert, Lauren A.; Navin, Thomas R.; Castro, Kenneth G.; LoBue, Philip A.

    2015-01-01

    Background Reexamining the prevalence of persons infected with tuberculosis (TB) is important to determine trends over time. In 2011–2012 a TB component was included in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) to estimate the reservoir of persons infected with TB. Methods Civilian, noninstitutionalized U.S. population survey participants aged 6 years and older were interviewed regarding their TB history and eligibility for the tuberculin skin test (TST) and interferon gamma release assay (IGRA) blood test. Once eligibility was confirmed, both tests were conducted. Prevalence and numbers of TST positive (10 mm or greater), IGRA positive, and both TST and IGRA positive were calculated by adjusting for the complex survey design after applying corrections for item nonresponse and digit preference in TST induration measurements. To examine TST positivity over time, data from NHANES 1999–2000 were reanalyzed using the same statistical methods. The TST was performed using Tubersol, a commercially available purified protein derivative (PPD), rather than PPD-S, which was the antigen used in NHANES 1999–2000. Prior patient history of TB vaccination was not collected in this study nor were patients examined for the presence of a Bacillus of Calmette and Guerin (BCG) vaccine scar. Results For NHANES 2011–2012, TST and IGRA results were available for 6,128 (78.4%) and 7,107 (90.9%) eligible participants, respectively. There was no significant difference between the percentage of the U.S. population that was TST positive in 2011–2012 (4.7% [95% CI 3.4–6.3]; 13,276,000 persons) compared with 1999–2000 (4.3%; 3.5–5.3). In 2011–2012 the percentage that was IGRA positive was 5.0% (4.2–5.8) and double TST and IGRA positivity was 2.1% (1.5–2.8). The point estimate of IGRA positivity prevalence in foreign-born persons (15.9%; 13.5–18.7) was lower than for TST (20.5%; 16.1–25.8) in 2011–2012. The point estimate of IGRA positivity

  4. Surgical Care Required for Populations Affected by Climate-related Natural Disasters: A Global Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Eugenia E.; Stewart, Barclay; Zha, Yuanting A.; Groen, Thomas A.; Burkle, Frederick M.; Kushner, Adam L.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Climate extremes will increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters worldwide.  Climate-related natural disasters were anticipated to affect 375 million people in 2015, more than 50% greater than the yearly average in the previous decade. To inform surgical assistance preparedness, we estimated the number of surgical procedures needed.   Methods: The numbers of people affected by climate-related disasters from 2004 to 2014 were obtained from the Centre for Research of the Epidemiology of Disasters database. Using 5,000 procedures per 100,000 persons as the minimum, baseline estimates were calculated. A linear regression of the number of surgical procedures performed annually and the estimated number of surgical procedures required for climate-related natural disasters was performed. Results: Approximately 140 million people were affected by climate-related natural disasters annually requiring 7.0 million surgical procedures. The greatest need for surgical care was in the People’s Republic of China, India, and the Philippines. Linear regression demonstrated a poor relationship between national surgical capacity and estimated need for surgical care resulting from natural disaster, but countries with the least surgical capacity will have the greatest need for surgical care for persons affected by climate-related natural disasters. Conclusion: As climate extremes increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters, millions will need surgical care beyond baseline needs. Countries with insufficient surgical capacity will have the most need for surgical care for persons affected by climate-related natural disasters. Estimates of surgical are particularly important for countries least equipped to meet surgical care demands given critical human and physical resource deficiencies. PMID:27617165

  5. The Prevalence of Fragility Fractures in a Population of a Region of Southern Italy Affected by Thyroid Disorders

    PubMed Central

    Notarnicola, Angela; Pesce, Vito; Mudoni, Simona; Tafuri, Silvio; Moretti, Biagio

    2016-01-01

    In the literature there is no clear evidence of a relationship between thyropathies and fragility fractures. The aim of our study is to define the prevalence of thyroid disease in a study sample made up of subjects with fragility fractures and from the same geographical area. We retrospectively studied the “hospital discharge records” (HDR) in the Apulian Database for the period 2008–2013 in order to identify all those patients with fragility fractures that required hospitalization. After detecting the prevalent population, we identified the patients affected by thyroid disease. We observed that, between 2008 and 2013 in Apulia, 16,636 patients were affected by hyperthyroidism. In the same period there were 92,341 subjects with hypothyroidism. The incidence of fragility fractures was 4.5% in the population with hyperthyroidism. As regards the population with hypothyroidism, the incidence of fragility fractures was 3.7%. Furthermore, we assessed the statistical connection between thyroid disease and fragility fractures revealing a higher incidence in patients with hyperthyroidism and clinical hypothyroidism. PMID:27807539

  6. Prevalence study of iliopsoas bursitis in a cohort of 860 patients affected by symptomatic hip osteoarthritis.

    PubMed

    Tormenta, Sandro; Sconfienza, Luca Maria; Iannessi, Francesca; Bizzi, Emanuele; Massafra, Umberto; Orlandi, Davide; Migliore, Alberto

    2012-08-01

    We used ultrasound to evaluate iliopsoas bursitis (IB) prevalence in 860 patients (568 males, 292 females, 62 ± 7 years) suffering from symptomatic Kellgren-Lawrence grade II-III-IV hip osteoarthritis. Lequesne index and visual analogue scale (VAS) were recorded. Anterior hip was scanned and images recorded. Maximum IB diameter was measured and drained (volume recorded). Two radiologists evaluated the presence of IB, joint effusion, synovial hypertrophy, communication between bursa and articular space. IB was found in 19/860 (2.2%) patients (16 males, 3 females, 65 ± 11 years; grade II osteoarthritis = 4; III = 9; IV = 6). Mean bursa diameter = 2.9 ± 0.9 cm, volume = 35 ± 34 mL. Effusion was present in 9/19 patients, hypertrophy in 6/19 and communication in 9/19. In patients with no IB, effusion was detected in 27/860 and hypertrophy in 25/860 (p < 0.001 compared with IB patients). κ = 1 for all. VAS index and Lequesne index were not significantly different between patients with or without IB (p ≥ 0.468). Ultrasound can detect associate findings in grade II-IV hip osteoarthritis patients with high reproducibility.

  7. Prevalence of Suicidal Ideation and Its Association with Positive Affect in Working Women: A Day Reconstruction Study.

    PubMed

    Tian, Lili; Yang, Ying; Yang, Huijing; Huebner, E Scott

    2017-01-01

    The suicide rate for females in China is the second highest worldwide, and China is the only country in the world in which the rate of suicides is higher for women than men. Affective instability has been shown to be a strong predictor of suicidal ideation, particularly among women. However, prior research has mainly focused on the impact of women's negative affect on suicidal ideation, ignoring the influence of positive affect on suicidal ideation. Studies have revealed that hopelessness, which is 1.3 times more important than depression for explaining suicidal ideation, is driven more by low levels of positive affect than by high levels of negative affect. Although positive affect has also been found to be related to suicidal ideation, and it demonstrates independent, beneficial effects on mental health, much remains to be learned about the association between positive affective instability and suicidal ideation. Therefore, we investigated the prevalence of suicidal ideation among Chinese working women and explored the differences between working women with and without suicidal ideation in the intensity and daily variability of positive affect. A total of 222 young working women of ages 22-36 years (M = 27.64, SD = 3.73) were recruited from a free weekend psychology lecture. The women subsequently completed a daily diary Day Reconstruction Method (DRM) as well as a suicidal ideation questionnaire. We used hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) to analyze the data, and the results showed that: (1) 10.81% of participates reported suicidal ideation, the intensity of positive affect (happiness, warmth/friendliness, interest and relaxation/calmness) was significantly lower for women with suicidal ideation compared to women without suicidal ideation; (2) differing diurnal patterns of positive emotions were observed between women with and without suicidal ideation; women with suicidal ideation demonstrated a significantly lower trend of growth and a higher volatility in

  8. Prevalence of Suicidal Ideation and Its Association with Positive Affect in Working Women: A Day Reconstruction Study

    PubMed Central

    Tian, Lili; Yang, Ying; Yang, Huijing; Huebner, E. Scott

    2017-01-01

    The suicide rate for females in China is the second highest worldwide, and China is the only country in the world in which the rate of suicides is higher for women than men. Affective instability has been shown to be a strong predictor of suicidal ideation, particularly among women. However, prior research has mainly focused on the impact of women's negative affect on suicidal ideation, ignoring the influence of positive affect on suicidal ideation. Studies have revealed that hopelessness, which is 1.3 times more important than depression for explaining suicidal ideation, is driven more by low levels of positive affect than by high levels of negative affect. Although positive affect has also been found to be related to suicidal ideation, and it demonstrates independent, beneficial effects on mental health, much remains to be learned about the association between positive affective instability and suicidal ideation. Therefore, we investigated the prevalence of suicidal ideation among Chinese working women and explored the differences between working women with and without suicidal ideation in the intensity and daily variability of positive affect. A total of 222 young working women of ages 22–36 years (M = 27.64, SD = 3.73) were recruited from a free weekend psychology lecture. The women subsequently completed a daily diary Day Reconstruction Method (DRM) as well as a suicidal ideation questionnaire. We used hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) to analyze the data, and the results showed that: (1) 10.81% of participates reported suicidal ideation, the intensity of positive affect (happiness, warmth/friendliness, interest and relaxation/calmness) was significantly lower for women with suicidal ideation compared to women without suicidal ideation; (2) differing diurnal patterns of positive emotions were observed between women with and without suicidal ideation; women with suicidal ideation demonstrated a significantly lower trend of growth and a higher volatility in

  9. Comparison of techniques for the estimation of the prevalence of poliomyelitis in developing countries

    PubMed Central

    Joseph, B.; Ravikumar, R.; John, M.; Natarajan, K.; Steinhoff, M. C.; John, T. J.

    1983-01-01

    Although reliable data on the prevalence and trends of paralytic poliomyelitis are necessary for health planning, they are often difficult to obtain in developing countries. Comparisons were made of the cost and the time taken to obtain prevalence rates of residual poliomyelitis paralysis in a single community by (1) a surveillance and reporting system using physicians and other practitioners, (2) a school survey covering grades 1 to 12, (3) annual surveys of grade 1 schoolchildren, and (4) a house-to-house questionnaire survey. These techniques gave poliomyelitis prevalence rates of 3-5 per 1000 school-age children, and poliomyelitis incidence rates of 12-29 per 100 000 population per year. The annual grade 1 school survey was the cheapest and easiest to carry out and appears reliable in areas with a high rate of school enrolment. PMID:6606499

  10. Use of a refined drug tracer algorithm to estimate prevalence and incidence of Parkinson's disease in a large israeli population.

    PubMed

    Chillag-Talmor, Orly; Giladi, Nir; Linn, Shai; Gurevich, Tanya; El-Ad, Baruch; Silverman, Barbara; Friedman, Nurit; Peretz, Chava

    2011-01-01

    Estimating rates of Parkinson's disease (PD) is essential for health services planning and studies of disease determinants. However, few PD registries exist. We aimed to estimate annual prevalence and incidence of PD in a large Israeli population over the past decade using computerized drug purchase data. Based on profiles of anti-parkinsonian drugs, age at first purchase, purchase density, and follow-up time, we developed a refined algorithm for PD assessment (definite, probable or possible) and validated it against clinical diagnoses. We used the prescription database of the second largest Health Maintenance Organization in Israel (covers ~25% of population), for the years 1998-2008. PD rates by age, gender and year were calculated and compared using Poisson models. The algorithm was found to be highly sensitive (96%) for detecting PD cases. We identified 7,134 prevalent cases (67% definite/probable), and 5,288 incident cases (65% definite/probable), with mean age at first purchase 69 ± 13 years. Over the years 2000-2007, PD incidence rate of 33/100,000 was stable, and the prevalence rate increased from 170/100,000 to 256/100,000. For ages 50+, 60+, 70+, median prevalence rates were 1%, 2%, 3%, respectively. Incidence rates also increased with age (RR = 1.76, 95%CI 1.75-1.77, ages 50+, 5-year interval). For ages 50+, rates were higher among men for both prevalence (RR = 1.38, 95%CI 1.37-1.39) and incidence (RR = 1.45, 95%CI 1.42-1.48). In conclusion, our refined algorithm for PD assessment, based on computerized drug purchases data, may be a reliable tool for population-based studies. The findings indicate a burden of PD in Israel higher than previously assumed.

  11. Can a deterministic spatial microsimulation model provide reliable small-area estimates of health behaviours? An example of smoking prevalence in New Zealand.

    PubMed

    Smith, Dianna M; Pearce, Jamie R; Harland, Kirk

    2011-03-01

    Models created to estimate neighbourhood level health outcomes and behaviours can be difficult to validate as prevalence is often unknown at the local level. This paper tests the reliability of a spatial microsimulation model, using a deterministic reweighting method, to predict smoking prevalence in small areas across New Zealand. The difference in the prevalence of smoking between those estimated by the model and those calculated from census data is less than 20% in 1745 out of 1760 areas. The accuracy of these results provides users with greater confidence to utilize similar approaches in countries where local-level smoking prevalence is unknown.

  12. A first-principles model for estimating the prevalence of annoyance with aircraft noise exposure.

    PubMed

    Fidell, Sanford; Mestre, Vincent; Schomer, Paul; Berry, Bernard; Gjestland, Truls; Vallet, Michel; Reid, Timothy

    2011-08-01

    Numerous relationships between noise exposure and transportation noise-induced annoyance have been inferred by curve-fitting methods. The present paper develops a different approach. It derives a systematic relationship by applying an a priori, first-principles model to the findings of forty three studies of the annoyance of aviation noise. The rate of change of annoyance with day-night average sound level (DNL) due to aircraft noise exposure was found to closely resemble the rate of change of loudness with sound level. The agreement of model predictions with the findings of recent curve-fitting exercises (cf. Miedma and Vos, 1998) is noteworthy, considering that other analyses have relied on different analytic methods and disparate data sets. Even though annoyance prevalence rates within individual communities consistently grow in proportion to duration-adjusted loudness, variability in annoyance prevalence rates across communities remains great. The present analyses demonstrate that 1) community-specific differences in annoyance prevalence rates can be plausibly attributed to the joint effect of acoustic and non-DNL related factors and (2) a simple model can account for the aggregate influences of non-DNL related factors on annoyance prevalence rates in different communities in terms of a single parameter expressed in DNL units-a "community tolerance level."

  13. Prevalence of asthma and mean levels of air pollution: results from the French PAARC survey. Pollution Atomosphérique et Affections Respiratoires Chroniques.

    PubMed

    Baldi, I; Tessier, J F; Kauffmann, F; Jacqmin-Gadda, H; Nejjari, C; Salamon, R

    1999-07-01

    Among the possible explanations for the recent increase in the prevalence of asthma in several countries, air pollution is one of the foremost public health concerns. Data from the "Pollution Atmosphérique et Affections Respiratoires Chroniques" (PAARC) survey collected in 24 areas of seven French towns during 1974-1976 were reanalysed to assess the relationship between the prevalence of asthma and the following air pollutants: sulphur dioxide (specific (SO2) and acidimetric methods), total suspended particles (TSP), black smoke (BS), nitrogen dioxide and nitric oxide. Correlation coefficients between annual mean levels of pollution and prevalence of asthma in the different areas were first calculated. Random-effects models were then estimated. Of the 20,310 adults aged 25-59 yrs, 1,291 (6.4%) were found to be asthmatics as well as 195 (6.1%) of the 3,193 children aged 5-9 yrs. A geographical correlation between asthma and annual mean level of SO2 (ranging 17-85 microg x m(-3)) was found (r=0.45, p=0.01) in adults. No relationship was found in children. After controlling for age, educational level, smoking, and geographical clustering with a multivariate random-effects model, the relationship remained significant in adults for SO2 (odds ratio for a 50 microg x m(-3) increase=1.24, confidence interval 1.08-1.44, p=0.0035). It also remained significant when taking into account only the people reporting their last asthma attack occurring after settling in the study area. These results are consistent with the known short-term effects of SO2 in asthma and demonstrate the necessity for further studies on delayed effects of air pollution in respiratory diseases.

  14. Estimation of canine Leishmania infection prevalence in six cities of the Algerian littoral zone using a Bayesian approach.

    PubMed

    Adel, Amel; Abatih, Emmanuel; Speybroeck, Niko; Soukehal, Abdelkrim; Bouguedour, Rachid; Boughalem, Karim; Bouhbal, Abdelmalek; Djerbal, Mouloud; Saegerman, Claude; Berkvens, Dirk

    2015-01-01

    A large-scale study on canine Leishmania infection (CanL) was conducted in six localities along a west-east transect in the Algerian littoral zone (Tlemcen, Mostaganem, Tipaza, Boumerdes, Bejaia, Jijel) and covering two sampling periods. In total 2,184 dogs were tested with an indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT) and a direct agglutination test (DAT). Combined multiple-testing and several statistical methods were compared to estimate the CanL true prevalence and tests characteristics (sensitivity and specificity). The Bayesian full model showed the best fit and yielded prevalence estimates between 11% (Mostaganem, first period) and 38% (Bejaia, second period). Sensitivity of IFAT varied (in function of locality) between 86% and 88% while its specificity varied between 65% and 87%. DAT was less sensitive than IFAT but showed a higher specificity (between 80% and 95% in function of locality or/and season). A general increasing trend of the CanL prevalence was noted from west to east. A concordance between the present results and the incidence of human cases of visceral leishmaniasis was observed, where also a maximum was recorded for Bejaia. The results of the present study highlight the dangers when using IFAT as a gold standard.

  15. Estimation of Canine Leishmania Infection Prevalence in Six Cities of the Algerian Littoral Zone Using a Bayesian Approach

    PubMed Central

    Adel, Amel; Abatih, Emmanuel; Speybroeck, Niko; Soukehal, Abdelkrim; Bouguedour, Rachid; Boughalem, Karim; Bouhbal, Abdelmalek; Djerbal, Mouloud; Saegerman, Claude; Berkvens, Dirk

    2015-01-01

    A large-scale study on canine Leishmania infection (CanL) was conducted in six localities along a west-east transect in the Algerian littoral zone (Tlemcen, Mostaganem, Tipaza, Boumerdes, Bejaia, Jijel) and covering two sampling periods. In total 2,184 dogs were tested with an indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT) and a direct agglutination test (DAT). Combined multiple-testing and several statistical methods were compared to estimate the CanL true prevalence and tests characteristics (sensitivity and specificity). The Bayesian full model showed the best fit and yielded prevalence estimates between 11% (Mostaganem, first period) and 38% (Bejaia, second period). Sensitivity of IFAT varied (in function of locality) between 86% and 88% while its specificity varied between 65% and 87%. DAT was less sensitive than IFAT but showed a higher specificity (between 80% and 95% in function of locality or/and season). A general increasing trend of the CanL prevalence was noted from west to east. A concordance between the present results and the incidence of human cases of visceral leishmaniasis was observed, where also a maximum was recorded for Bejaia. The results of the present study highlight the dangers when using IFAT as a gold standard. PMID:25793942

  16. Methods for estimating comparable prevalence rates of food insecurity experienced by adults in 147 countries and areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nord, Mark; Cafiero, Carlo; Viviani, Sara

    2016-11-01

    Statistical methods based on item response theory are applied to experiential food insecurity survey data from 147 countries, areas, and territories to assess data quality and develop methods to estimate national prevalence rates of moderate and severe food insecurity at equal levels of severity across countries. Data were collected from nationally representative samples of 1,000 adults in each country. A Rasch-model-based scale was estimated for each country, and data were assessed for consistency with model assumptions. A global reference scale was calculated based on item parameters from all countries. Each country's scale was adjusted to the global standard, allowing for up to 3 of the 8 scale items to be considered unique in that country if their deviance from the global standard exceeded a set tolerance. With very few exceptions, data from all countries were sufficiently consistent with model assumptions to constitute reasonably reliable measures of food insecurity and were adjustable to the global standard with fair confidence. National prevalence rates of moderate-or-severe food insecurity assessed over a 12-month recall period ranged from 3 percent to 92 percent. The correlations of national prevalence rates with national income, health, and well-being indicators provide external validation of the food security measure.

  17. Estimation of microbial contamination of food from prevalence and concentration data: application to Listeria monocytogenes in fresh vegetables.

    PubMed

    Crépet, Amélie; Albert, Isabelle; Dervin, Catherine; Carlin, Frédéric

    2007-01-01

    A normal distribution and a mixture model of two normal distributions in a Bayesian approach using prevalence and concentration data were used to establish the distribution of contamination of the food-borne pathogenic bacteria Listeria monocytogenes in unprocessed and minimally processed fresh vegetables. A total of 165 prevalence studies, including 15 studies with concentration data, were taken from the scientific literature and from technical reports and used for statistical analysis. The predicted mean of the normal distribution of the logarithms of viable L. monocytogenes per gram of fresh vegetables was -2.63 log viable L. monocytogenes organisms/g, and its standard deviation was 1.48 log viable L. monocytogenes organisms/g. These values were determined by considering one contaminated sample in prevalence studies in which samples are in fact negative. This deliberate overestimation is necessary to complete calculations. With the mixture model, the predicted mean of the distribution of the logarithm of viable L. monocytogenes per gram of fresh vegetables was -3.38 log viable L. monocytogenes organisms/g and its standard deviation was 1.46 log viable L. monocytogenes organisms/g. The probabilities of fresh unprocessed and minimally processed vegetables being contaminated with concentrations higher than 1, 2, and 3 log viable L. monocytogenes organisms/g were 1.44, 0.63, and 0.17%, respectively. Introducing a sensitivity rate of 80 or 95% in the mixture model had a small effect on the estimation of the contamination. In contrast, introducing a low sensitivity rate (40%) resulted in marked differences, especially for high percentiles. There was a significantly lower estimation of contamination in the papers and reports of 2000 to 2005 than in those of 1988 to 1999 and a lower estimation of contamination of leafy salads than that of sprouts and other vegetables. The interest of the mixture model for the estimation of microbial contamination is discussed.

  18. Using pooled data to estimate variance components and breeding values for traits affected by social interactions

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Through social interactions, individuals affect one another’s phenotype. In such cases, an individual’s phenotype is affected by the direct (genetic) effect of the individual itself and the indirect (genetic) effects of the group mates. Using data on individual phenotypes, direct and indirect genetic (co)variances can be estimated. Together, they compose the total genetic variance that determines a population’s potential to respond to selection. However, it can be difficult or expensive to obtain individual phenotypes. Phenotypes on traits such as egg production and feed intake are, therefore, often collected on group level. In this study, we investigated whether direct, indirect and total genetic variances, and breeding values can be estimated from pooled data (pooled by group). In addition, we determined the optimal group composition, i.e. the optimal number of families represented in a group to minimise the standard error of the estimates. Methods This study was performed in three steps. First, all research questions were answered by theoretical derivations. Second, a simulation study was conducted to investigate the estimation of variance components and optimal group composition. Third, individual and pooled survival records on 12 944 purebred laying hens were analysed to investigate the estimation of breeding values and response to selection. Results Through theoretical derivations and simulations, we showed that the total genetic variance can be estimated from pooled data, but the underlying direct and indirect genetic (co)variances cannot. Moreover, we showed that the most accurate estimates are obtained when group members belong to the same family. Additional theoretical derivations and data analyses on survival records showed that the total genetic variance and breeding values can be estimated from pooled data. Moreover, the correlation between the estimated total breeding values obtained from individual and pooled data was surprisingly

  19. Trends and estimates in prostate cancer incidence, mortality and prevalence in the Slovak Republic, 1968-2012.

    PubMed

    Ondrusova, M; Mrozova, L; Ondrus, D; Mrinakova, B

    2013-01-01

    Prostate cancer is the third most-common non-skin cancer and also the third leading cause of cancer death in the Slovak Republic in recent years. However, analysis of incidence and mortality long-term time-trends, on the basis of which the prevalence estimates could have been calculated, were not available. This paper analyses national trends in prostate cancer incidence and mortality from 1968 to 2007 by using the join-point regression to propose potential changes in health care. The authors noted a statistically significant increase in the values of incidence after 1999 and improvement in mortality after 1998. Using a mathematical modelation authors predicted the overall prostate cancer prevalence in the Slovak Republic to provide actual data for health management.

  20. Estimating the Burden of Acute Gastrointestinal Illness: A Pilot Study of the Prevalence and Underreporting in Saint Lucia, Eastern Caribbean

    PubMed Central

    Jaime, Alina; Mckensie, Martin; Auguste, Ava; Pérez, Enrique; Indar, Lisa

    2013-01-01

    Saint Lucia was the first country to conduct a burden of illness study in the Caribbean to determine the community prevalence and underreporting of acute gastroenteritis (AGE). A retrospective cross-sectional population survey on AGE-related illness was administered to a random sample of residents of Saint Lucia in 20 April–16 May 2008 and 6-13 December 2009 to capture the high- and low-AGE season respectively. Of the selected 1,150 individuals, 1,006 were administered the survey through face-to-face interviews (response rate 87.4%). The overall monthly prevalence of AGE was 3.9%. The yearly incidence rate was 0.52 episodes/person-year. The age-adjusted monthly prevalence was 4.6%. The highest monthly prevalence of AGE was among children aged <5 years (7.5%) and the lowest in persons aged 45-64 years (2.6%). The average number of days an individual suffered from diarrhoea was 3.8 days [range 1-21 day(s)]. Of the reported AGE cases, only seven (18%) sought medical care; however, 83% stayed at home due to the illness [(range 1-16 day(s), mean 2.5]; and 26% required other individuals to take care of them. The estimated underreporting of syndromic AGE and laboratory-confirmed foodborne disease pathogens was 81% and 99% respectively during the study period. The economic cost for treating syndromic AGE was estimated at US$ 3,892.837 per annum. This was a pilot study on the burden of illness (BOI) in the Caribbean. The results of the study should be interpreted within the limitations and challenges of this study. Lessons learnt were used for improving the implementation procedures of other BOI studies in the Caribbean.

  1. A determination of the prevalence of gender-based violence among conflict-affected populations in East Timor.

    PubMed

    Hynes, Michelle; Robertson, Kathryn; Ward, Jeanne; Crouse, Chadd

    2004-09-01

    The Reproductive Health Response in Conflict (RHRC) Consortium designed a standardised questionnaire to measure gender-based violence (GBV) prevalence in conflict-affected settings. A preliminary field test was undertaken July-August 2002 in one urban and one rural district in East Timor to assess the prevalence of GBV among women 18-49 years of age during and after conflict. The field test used a cross-sectional survey design with a two-stage random selection process. During the year preceding East Timor's 1999 crisis, 23.8 per cent of respondents reported physical assault by an intimate partner; this rate was not significantly different in the year preceding the survey (24.8 per cent). Assault by perpetrators outside the family declined significantly from 24.2 per cent during the crisis to 5.8 per cent post-crisis for physical assault (p<.001) and 22.7 per cent during the crisis to 9.7 per cent post-crisis for sexual assault (p=0.046). The field test stimulated and informed additional research in East Timor, and the complementary findings of these research initiatives continue to be used to develop local policies and programming to prevent and address GBV.

  2. Clozapine-induced hypersalivation: an estimate of prevalence, severity and impact on quality of life

    PubMed Central

    Maher, Senan; Cunningham, Aoife; O’Callaghan, Niamh; Byrne, Fintan; Mc Donald, Colm; McInerney, Shane; Hallahan, Brian

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: The objective of this study was to evaluate the prevalence and severity of clozapine-induced hypersalivation, and assess the impact hypersalivation has on global functioning. Methods: Participants attending a dedicated clozapine clinic were invited to undertake a structured interview regarding their experiences of clozapine-induced hypersalivation. Two psychometric instruments to measure hypersalivation, the Nocturnal Hypersalivation Rating Scale and the Drooling Severity and Frequency Scale were used. Results: Clozapine-induced hypersalivation was experienced by 92% of participants, with nocturnal hypersalivation more prevalent compared to daytime hypersalivation (85% versus 48%). Daytime drooling was severe in 18% of cases and was present on a frequent or constant basis for 20% of individuals. Hypersalivation had at least a moderate impact on the quality of life of 15% of study participants. Conclusions: Clozapine-induced hypersalivation is the most prevalent adverse effect experienced by patients treated with clozapine and negatively impacts on quality of life, particularly if daytime drooling is present. The development of further strategies to ameliorate this adverse effect is required given the demonstrated lack of success to date in managing this condition. PMID:27354906

  3. High prevalence of potential drug interactions affecting mycophenolic acid pharmacokinetics in nonmyeloablative hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients

    PubMed Central

    Jaklič, Alenka; Collins, Carol J.; Mrhar, Aleš; Sorror, Mohamed L.; Sandmaier, Brenda M.; Bemer, Meagan J.; Locatelli, Igor; McCune, Jeannine S.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: Mycophenolic acid (MPA) exposure is associated with clinical outcomes in hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) recipients. Various drug interaction studies, predominantly in healthy volunteers or solid organ transplant recipients, have identified medications which impact MPA pharmacokinetics. Recipients of nonmyeloablative HCT, however, have an increased burden of comorbidities, potentially increasing the number of concomitant medications and potential drug interactions (PDI) affecting MPA exposure. Thus, we sought to be the first to characterize these PDI in nonmyeloablative HCT recipients. Materials and methods: We compiled PDI affecting MPA pharmacokinetics and characterized the prevalence of PDI in nonmyeloablative HCT recipients. A comprehensive literature evaluation of four databases and PubMed was conducted to identify medications with PDI affecting MPA pharmacokinetics. Subsequently, a retrospective medication review was conducted to characterize the cumulative PDI burden, defined as the number of PDI for an individual patient over the first 21 days after allogeneic graft infusion, in 84 nonmyeloablative HCT recipients. Results: Of the 187 concomitant medications, 11 (5.9%) had a PDI affecting MPA pharmacokinetics. 87% of 84 patients had one PDI, with a median cumulative PDI burden of 2 (range 0 – 4). The most common PDI, in descending order, were cyclosporine, omeprazole and pantoprazole. Conclusion: Only a minority of medications (5.9%) have a PDI affecting MPA pharmacokinetics. However, the majority of nonmyeloablative HCT recipients had a PDI, with cyclosporine and the proton pump inhibitors being the most common. A better understanding of PDI and their management should lead to safer medication regimens for nonmyeloablative HCT recipients. PMID:23782584

  4. Modelling and estimation of HIV prevalence and number of people living with HIV in India, 2010-2011.

    PubMed

    Raj, Yujwal; Sahu, Damodar; Pandey, Arvind; Venkatesh, S; Reddy, Dcs; Bakkali, Taoufik; Das, Chinmoyee; Singh, Kh Jitenkumar; Kant, Shashi; Bhattacharya, M; Stover, John; Jha, Ugra Mohan; Kumar, Pradeep; Mishra, Ram Manohar; Chandra, Nalini; Gulati, B K; Mathur, Sharad; Joshi, Deepika; Chavan, L

    2016-12-01

    This paper provides HIV estimation methodology used in India and key HIV estimates for 2010-2011. We used a modified version of the Spectrum tool that included an Estimation and Projection Package as part of its AIDS Impact Module. Inputs related to population size, age-specific pattern of fertility, gender-ratio at birth, age and gender-specific pattern of mortality, and volume and age-gender distribution of net migration were derived from census records, the Sample Registration System and large-scale demographic health surveys. Epidemiological and programmatic data were derived from HIV sentinel surveillance, large-scale epidemiological surveys and the programme management information system. Estimated adult HIV prevalence retained a declining trend in India, following its peak in 2002 at a level of 0.41% (within bounds 0.35-0.47%). By 2010 and 2011, it levelled at estimates of 0.28% (0.24-0.34%) and 0.27% (0.22-0.33%), respectively. The estimated number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) reduced by 8% between 2007 and 2011. While children accounted for approximately 6.3% of total HIV infections in 2007, this proportion increased to about 7% in 2011. With changing priorities and epidemic patterns, the programme has to customise its strategies to effectively address the emerging vulnerabilities and adapt them to suit the requirements of different geographical regions.

  5. Chronic disease prevalence from Italian administrative databases in the VALORE project: a validation through comparison of population estimates with general practice databases and national survey

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Administrative databases are widely available and have been extensively used to provide estimates of chronic disease prevalence for the purpose of surveillance of both geographical and temporal trends. There are, however, other sources of data available, such as medical records from primary care and national surveys. In this paper we compare disease prevalence estimates obtained from these three different data sources. Methods Data from general practitioners (GP) and administrative transactions for health services were collected from five Italian regions (Veneto, Emilia Romagna, Tuscany, Marche and Sicily) belonging to all the three macroareas of the country (North, Center, South). Crude prevalence estimates were calculated by data source and region for diabetes, ischaemic heart disease, heart failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). For diabetes and COPD, prevalence estimates were also obtained from a national health survey. When necessary, estimates were adjusted for completeness of data ascertainment. Results Crude prevalence estimates of diabetes in administrative databases (range: from 4.8% to 7.1%) were lower than corresponding GP (6.2%-8.5%) and survey-based estimates (5.1%-7.5%). Geographical trends were similar in the three sources and estimates based on treatment were the same, while estimates adjusted for completeness of ascertainment (6.1%-8.8%) were slightly higher. For ischaemic heart disease administrative and GP data sources were fairly consistent, with prevalence ranging from 3.7% to 4.7% and from 3.3% to 4.9%, respectively. In the case of heart failure administrative estimates were consistently higher than GPs’ estimates in all five regions, the highest difference being 1.4% vs 1.1%. For COPD the estimates from administrative data, ranging from 3.1% to 5.2%, fell into the confidence interval of the Survey estimates in four regions, but failed to detect the higher prevalence in the most Southern region (4.0% in

  6. The PROBIT approach in estimating the prevalence of wasting: revisiting bias and precision

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The PROBIT methodology was presented in the 1995 World Health Organization Technical Report on Anthropometry as an alternative to the standard prevalence based method of measuring malnutrition in children. Theoretically the PROBIT method will always give a smaller standard error than the standard prevalence method in measuring malnutrition. A recent article by Dale et al. assessed the PROBIT method for measuring global acute malnutrition measure and found that the method was biased and the precision was superior only for sample sizes less than 150 when compared to the standard method. In a manner similar to Dale, our study further investigated the bias and precision of the PROBIT method for different sample sizes using simulated populations. Results The PROBIT method showed bias for each of the ten simulated populations, but the direction and magnitude of the average bias was changed depending on the simulated population. For a given simulated population, the average bias was relatively constant for all sample sizes drawn. The 95% half-width confidence interval was lower for the PROBIT method than the standard prevalence method regardless of the sample size or simulated population. The absolute difference in the confidence limits showed the most gains for the PROBIT method for the smaller samples sizes, but the ratio of confidence intervals was relatively constant across all sample sizes. Conclusions The PROBIT method will provide gains in precision regardless of the sample size, but the method may be biased. The direction and magnitude of the bias depends on the population it is drawn from. PMID:23981669

  7. Cultivation and counter cultivation: does religiosity shape the relationship between television viewing and estimates of crime prevalence and assessment of victimization likelihood?

    PubMed

    Hetsroni, Amir; Lowenstein, Hila

    2013-02-01

    Religiosity may change the direction of the effect of TV viewing on assessment of the likelihood of personal victimization and estimates concerning crime prevalence. A content analysis of a representative sample of TV programming (56 hours of prime-time shows) was done to identify the most common crimes on television, followed by a survey of a representative sample of the adult public in a large urban district (778 respondents) who were asked to estimate the prevalence of these crimes and to assess the likelihood of themselves being victimized. People who defined themselves as non-religious increased their estimates of prevalence for crimes often depicted on TV, as they reported more time watching TV (ordinary cultivation effect), whereas estimates regarding the prevalence of crime and assessment of victimization likelihood among religious respondents were lower with reports of more time devoted to television viewing (counter-cultivation effect).

  8. Estimating the Prevalence of Sexual Function Problems: The Impact of Morbidity Criteria

    PubMed Central

    Mitchell, Kirstin R.; Jones, Kyle G.; Wellings, Kaye; Johnson, Anne M.; Graham, Cynthia A.; Datta, Jessica; Copas, Andrew J.; Bancroft, John; Sonnenberg, Pam; Macdowall, Wendy; Field, Nigel; Mercer, Catherine H.

    2016-01-01

    Establishing the clinical significance of symptoms of sexual dysfunction is challenging. To address this, the fifth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5) introduced two new morbidity criteria (duration and symptom severity) to the existing criteria of distress. This study sought to establish the impact of these three criteria on the population prevalence of sexual function problems. The data come from a national probability survey (Natsal-3) and are based on 11,509 male and female participants aged 16–74, reporting at least one sexual partner in the past year. The key outcomes were: proportion of individuals reporting proxy measures of DSM-5 problems, and the proportion of those meeting morbidity criteria. We found that among sexually active men, the prevalence of reporting one or more of four specific sexual problems was 38.2%, but 4.2% after applying the three morbidity criteria; corresponding figures for women reporting one or more of three specific sexual problems, were 22.8% and 3.6%. Just over a third of men and women reporting a problem meeting all three morbidity criteria had sought help in the last year. We conclude that the DSM-5 morbidity criteria impose a focus on clinically significant symptoms. PMID:26605494

  9. Copro prevalence and estimated risk of Entamoeba histolytica in Diarrheic patients at Beni-Suef, Egypt.

    PubMed

    Ibrahim, Shimaa S; El-Matarawy, Olfat M; Ghieth, Marwa A; Abu Sarea, Enas Y; El-Badry, Ayman A

    2015-02-01

    Amoebiasis diagnosis is usually based on microscopy that cannot differentiate pathogenic E. histolytica from morphologically identical non-pathogenic species. 194 fecal samples were collected from diarrheic &/or dysenteric patients and examined for Entamoeba complex microscopically, E. histolytica/E. dispar coproantigen using ICT and E. histolytica coproantigen using Tech lab E. histolytica II ELISA test. Entamoeba complex trophozoites/cysts, E. histolytica/E. dispar coproantigen and E. histolytica coproantigen were detected in 22.2, 14.4 and 3.6 % of samples, respectively. Microscopy and ICT method had limited sensitivity with poor PPV (9.3 and 7.1 %, respectively) and both slightly agree with ELISA test. The prevalence of E. histolytica was low (3.6 %) in studied individuals and was 14 times lower than non-pathogenic amoebae. E. histolytica detection studied individuals was positively associated with mucoid and bloody stool, which makes them disease predictors. E. histolytica fecal ELISA assay for E. histolytica detection surpassed microscopy and E. histolytica/E. dispar ICT assay. This has highlighted the need for practical non-microscopic detection methods that can differentiate between amoeba infections to avoid unnecessary and possibly harmful therapies and to determine the true prevalence and epidemiology of E. histolytica.

  10. Validation, replication, and sensitivity testing of Heckman-type selection models to adjust estimates of HIV prevalence.

    PubMed

    Clark, Samuel J; Houle, Brian

    2014-01-01

    A recent study using Heckman-type selection models to adjust for non-response in the Zambia 2007 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) found a large correction in HIV prevalence for males. We aim to validate this finding, replicate the adjustment approach in other DHSs, apply the adjustment approach in an external empirical context, and assess the robustness of the technique to different adjustment approaches. We used 6 DHSs, and an HIV prevalence study from rural South Africa to validate and replicate the adjustment approach. We also developed an alternative, systematic model of selection processes and applied it to all surveys. We decomposed corrections from both approaches into rate change and age-structure change components. We are able to reproduce the adjustment approach for the 2007 Zambia DHS and derive results comparable with the original findings. We are able to replicate applying the approach in several other DHSs. The approach also yields reasonable adjustments for a survey in rural South Africa. The technique is relatively robust to how the adjustment approach is specified. The Heckman selection model is a useful tool for assessing the possibility and extent of selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates from sample surveys.

  11. Prevalence of hypothyroidism in diabetic kidney disease and effect of thyroid hormone replacement on estimate glomerular filtration rate

    PubMed Central

    Bajaj, Sarita; Purwar, Naincy; Gupta, Arvind; Gupta, Poonam; Srivastava, Anubha

    2016-01-01

    Aims: To determine the prevalence of subclinical and overt hypothyroidism in diabetic kidney disease (DKD) and effect of thyroid hormone replacement on progression of DKD. Materials and Methods: A prospective cohort study on 41 adult DKD patients who were screened for hypothyroidism. Hypothyroid DKD patients were started on levothyroxine replacement and were reviewed after 3 and 6 months. Results: Of the total population, 14 (34.1%) cases were hypothyroid, among whom 12 (29.3%) cases were subclinical, and 2 (4.8%) were overt hypothyroidism. Prevalence of hypothyroidism and mean thyroid stimulating hormone levels increased with increasing severity of DKD. There were 2 (14.3%) hypothyroid cases in stage 3b, 4 (28.5%) cases in stage 4, and 8 (57.2%) in stage 5 DKD. The mean estimate glomerular filtration rate (ml/min/1.73 m2) at baseline was 13.6 ± 13.3 which increased to 16.4 ± 14.5 and 21.2 ± 15.3 after 3 and 6 months of thyroid hormone replacement therapy (THRT), respectively (P < 0.001). Conclusions: Hypothyroidism is commonly associated with DKD. Prevalence of hypothyroidism increased with declining renal function. THRT significantly improved renal function in DKD patients with hypothyroidism after 3 and 6 months of therapy. PMID:27867882

  12. A Multilevel Approach to Estimating Small Area Childhood Obesity Prevalence at the Census Block-Group Level

    PubMed Central

    Onufrak, Stephen; Holt, James B.; Croft, Janet B.

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Traditional survey methods for obtaining nationwide small-area estimates (SAEs) of childhood obesity are costly. This study applied a geocoded national health survey in a multilevel modeling framework to estimate prevalence of childhood obesity at the census block-group level. Methods We constructed a multilevel logistic regression model to evaluate the influence of individual demographic characteristics, zip code, county, and state on the childhood obesity measures from the 2007 National Survey of Children’s Health. The obesity risk for a child in each census block group was then estimated on the basis of this multilevel model. We compared direct survey and model-based SAEs to evaluate the model specification. Results Multilevel models in this study explained about 60% of state-level variances associated with childhood obesity, 82.8% to 86.5% of county-level, and 93.1% of zip code-level. The 95% confidence intervals of block- group level SAEs have a wide range (0.795-20.0), a low median of 2.02, and a mean of 2.12. The model-based SAEs of childhood obesity prevalence ranged from 2.3% to 54.7% with a median of 16.0% at the block-group level. Conclusion The geographic variances among census block groups, counties, and states demonstrate that locale may be as significant as individual characteristics such as race/ethnicity in the development of the childhood obesity epidemic. Our estimates provide data to identify priority areas for local health programs and to establish feasible local intervention goals. Model-based SAEs of population health outcomes could be a tool of public health assessment and surveillance. PMID:23639763

  13. Association between Genetic Variations Affecting Mean Telomere Length and the Prevalence of Hypertension and Coronary Heart Disease in Koreans

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we investigated whether the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with telomere length (TL) were associated with the incidence of hypertension (HTN)/coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular risk factors in the Korean population. Data from 5,705 (ages 39–70) participants in the Korean Genome Epidemiology Study (rural Ansung and urban Ansan cohorts) were studied. Twelve SNPs known to be associated with telomere biology were tested for an association with HTN/CHD. As results, no significant associations were found between the selected TL-related SNPs and prevalence of HTN and CHD. Among non-alcohol users, subjects with minor alleles in rs1269304 and rs10936601 (TERC and LRRC34, respectively) exhibited a higher rate of CHD occurrence (odds ratio [OR], 1.862; 95% confidence intervals [CIs], 1.137, 3.049; OR, 1.855; 95% CIs, 1.111, 2.985; respectively). However, alcohol users with minor alleles in rs398652 (PELI2) were significantly associated with higher HTN prevalence (OR, 1.179; 95% CIs, 1.040, 1.336). Of the 3 SNPs related to disease outcomes, rs1296304 was significantly associated with increased levels of diastolic blood pressure (β estimate, 0.470; 95% CIs, 0.013, 0.926). The minor allele in rs398652 was significantly associated with higher levels of body mass index (OR, 0.128; 95% CIs, 0.010, 0.246) and γ-glutamyl transpeptidase (OR, 0.013; 95% CIs, 0.001, 0.024). In conclusion, there were no significant associations between the selected TL-related SNPs and the occurrence of HTN/CHD in Koreans. However, the results suggest the presence of a possible interaction between related SNPs and alcohol behavior associated with HTN/CHD occurrence. PMID:27812514

  14. How Many People have Alcohol Use Disorders? Using the Harmful Dysfunction Analysis to Reconcile Prevalence Estimates in Two Community Surveys

    PubMed Central

    Wakefield, Jerome C.; Schmitz, Mark F.

    2014-01-01

    Community prevalence rates of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) provided by epidemiological studies using DSM-based diagnostic criteria pose several challenges: the rates appear implausibly high to many epidemiologists; they do not converge across similar studies; and, due to low service utilization by those diagnosed as disordered, they yield estimates of unmet need for services so high that credibility for planning purposes is jeopardized. For example, two early community studies using DSM diagnostic criteria, the Epidemiologic Catchment Area Study (ECA) and the National Comorbidity Survey (NCS), yielded lifetime AUD prevalence rates of 14 and 24%, respectively, with NCS unmet need for services 19% of the entire population. Attempts to address these challenges by adding clinical significance requirements to diagnostic criteria have proven unsuccessful. Hypothesizing that these challenges are due to high rates of false-positive diagnoses of problem drinking as AUDs, we test an alternative approach. We use the harmful dysfunction (HD) analysis of the concept of mental disorder as a guide to construct more valid criteria within the framework of the standard out-of-control model of AUD. The proposed HD criteria require harm and dysfunction, where harm can be any negative social, personal, or physical outcome, and dysfunction requires either withdrawal symptoms or inability to stop drinking. Using HD criteria, ECA and NCS lifetime prevalences converge to much-reduced rates of 6 and 6.8%, respectively. Due to higher service utilization rates, NCS lifetime unmet need is reduced to 3.4%. Service use and duration comparisons suggest that HD criteria possess increased diagnostic validity. Moreover, HD criteria eliminate 90% of transient teenage drinking from disorder status. The HD version of the out-of-control model thus potentially resolves the three classic prevalence challenges while offering a more rigorous approach to distinguishing AUDs from problematic drinking. PMID

  15. [The Epidemiology of Dementia and Alzheimer Disease in Portugal: Estimations of Prevalence and Treatment-Costs].

    PubMed

    Santana, Isabel; Farinha, Filipa; Freitas, Sandra; Rodrigues, Vítor; Carvalho, Ålvaro

    2015-01-01

    Introdução: A incidência e prevalência de demência e de Doença de Alzheimer aumentam com a idade, duplicando a cada cinco anos após a sexta década de vida. Portugal é um país envelhecido, previsivelmente com um número crescente de casos de demência. No entanto, os dados epidemiológicos são escassos e os estudos sobre os custos da doença praticamente inexistentes. Propomo-nos apresentar uma estimativa actualizada da prevalência de demência/ Doença de Alzheimer em Portugal e inferir, a partir da prescrição específica para demência, o número de diagnósticos efectivos e os encargos financeiros com esses medicamentos.Material e Métodos: ÃÄ população residente em Portugal (2013), aplicámos os valores de prevalência de demência para a Europa Ocidental (estudo da AlzheimerâÄôs Disease International). A estimativa dos diagnósticos efectivos de Doença de Alzheimer e dos encargos financeiros com medicação específica baseou-se nas informações do Intercontinental Marketing Services Health (IMSH) âÄì 2013.Resultados: O número estimado de Portugueses com mais de 60 anos e com demência foi 160287, o que corresponde a 5,91% deste universo populacional. Sabendo que a Doença de Alzheimer representa 50-70% dos casos, inferimos que existirão entre 80144 e 112201 doentes. Por outro lado, os dados da IMSH indicam que estarão diagnosticados e a receceber anti-demenciais 76250 doentes, representando um encargo financeiro de 37 MâǬ/ano.Conclusão: O envelhecimento da população incrementa o número de casos de demência. Aparentemente, nem todos os doentes com Doença de Alzheimer recebem a medicação aconselhada, sugerindo que esta condição ainda está sub-diagnosticada. A evolução tem sido positiva, com incremento do número de doentes tratados e redução dos custos com fármacos específicos.

  16. Estimating Plasmodium falciparum transmission rates in low-endemic settings using a combination of community prevalence and health facility data.

    PubMed

    Yukich, Joshua; Briët, Olivier; Bretscher, Michael T; Bennett, Adam; Lemma, Seblewengel; Berhane, Yemane; Eisele, Thomas P; Keating, Joseph; Smith, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    As some malaria control programs shift focus from disease control to transmission reduction, there is a need for transmission data to monitor progress. At lower levels of transmission, it becomes increasingly more difficult to measure precisely, for example through entomological studies. Many programs conduct regular cross sectional parasite prevalence surveys, and have access to malaria treatment data routinely collected by ministries of health, often in health management information systems. However, by themselves, these data are poor measures of transmission. In this paper, we propose an approach for combining annual parasite incidence and treatment data with cross-sectional parasite prevalence and treatment seeking survey data to estimate the incidence of new infections in the human population, also known as the force of infection. The approach is based on extension of a reversible catalytic model. The accuracy of the estimates from this model appears to be highly dependent on levels of detectability and treatment in the community, indicating the importance of information on private sector treatment seeking and access to effective and appropriate treatment.

  17. Painful diabetic peripheral neuropathy in a managed care setting: patient identification, prevalence estimates, and pharmacy utilization patterns.

    PubMed

    Hartsfield, Cynthia L; Korner, Eli J; Ellis, Jennifer L; Raebel, Marsha A; Merenich, John; Brandenburg, Nancy

    2008-12-01

    The objectives of this study were to validate an algorithm for identifying patients with painful diabetic peripheral neuropathy (pDPN) and demonstrate its practical applications. Using the Kaiser Permanente Colorado Diabetes Registry, an algorithm was developed with selected ICD-9 diagnosis codes combined with automated pharmacy data for medications prescribed for pDPN symptoms. Medical records were reviewed to confirm pDPN presence and to inform algorithm refinement. Prevalence was estimated with a numerator of members with diabetes who had inclusion but no exclusion codes in 2003 (Method 1) and with a numerator of diabetes patients with inclusion codes between 1998 and 2003 who had no subsequent exclusion codes and who remained members in 2003 (Method 2); the denominator was all members with diabetes in 2003. Medication utilization was compared between patients with and without pDPN. A total of 19,577 members with diabetes were identified; 2612 met initial inclusion criteria. Medical record review (n = 298) demonstrated sensitivity of 94%, specificity of 55%, and positive predictive value (PPV) of 64%. Inclusion criteria were modified and pharmacy data eliminated. The revised algorithm identified 1754 additional patients meeting inclusion criteria. Medical record review (n = 190) demonstrated sensitivity of 99%, specificity of 49%, and PPV of 79%. Using the validated algorithm, pDPN prevalence was 113 (Method 1) and 208 (Method 2) per 1000 persons with diabetes. Significant differences were observed in medication prescriptions between patients with and without pDPN. Estimated pDPN prevalence among persons with diabetes was 11%-21% and pDPN patients had greater utilization of selected medications than those without pDPN. Identifying patients with pDPN is a fundamental step for improving disease management and understanding the economic impact of pDPN.

  18. Estimating the Prevalence of Atrial Fibrillation from A Three-Class Mixture Model for Repeated Diagnoses

    PubMed Central

    Li, Liang; Mao, Huzhang; Ishwaran, Hemant; Rajeswaran, Jeevanantham; Ehrlinger, John; Blackstone, Eugene H.

    2016-01-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an abnormal heart rhythm characterized by rapid and irregular heart beat, with or without perceivable symptoms. In clinical practice, the electrocardiogram (ECG) is often used for diagnosis of AF. Since the AF often arrives as recurrent episodes of varying frequency and duration and only the episodes that occur at the time of ECG can be detected, the AF is often underdiagnosed when a limited number of repeated ECGs are used. In studies evaluating the efficacy of AF ablation surgery, each patient undergo multiple ECGs and the AF status at the time of ECG is recorded. The objective of this paper is to estimate the marginal proportions of patients with or without AF in a population, which are important measures of the efficacy of the treatment. The underdiagnosis problem is addressed by a three-class mixture regression model in which a patient’s probability of having no AF, paroxysmal AF, and permanent AF is modeled by auxiliary baseline covariates in a nested logistic regression. A binomial regression model is specified conditional on a subject being in the paroxysmal AF group. The model parameters are estimated by the EM algorithm. These parameters are themselves nuisance parameters for the purpose of this research, but the estimators of the marginal proportions of interest can be expressed as functions of the data and these nuisance parameters and their variances can be estimated by the sandwich method. We examine the performance of the proposed methodology in simulations and two real data applications. PMID:27983754

  19. Demography of forest birds in Panama: How do transients affect estimates of survival rates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brawn, J.D.; Karr, J.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Robinson, W.D.; Adams, N.J.; Slotow, R.H.

    1998-01-01

    Estimates of annual survival rates for a multispecies sample of neotropical birds from Panama have proven controversial. Traditionally, tropical birds were thought to have high survival rates for their size, but analyses by Kart et al. (1990. Am. Nat. 136:277-91) contradicted that view, suggesting tropical birds may not have systematically high survival rates. A persistent criticism of that study has been that the estimates were biased by transient birds captured only once as they passed through the area being sampled. New models that formally adjust for transient individuals have been developed since 1990. Preliminary analyses using these models indicate that, despite some variation among species, overall estimates of survival rates for understory birds in Panama are not strongly affected by adjustments for transients. We also compare estimates of survival rates based on mark-recapture models with observations of colour-marked birds. The demographic traits of birds in the tropics (and elsewhere) vary within and among species according to combinations of historical and ongoing ecological factors. Understanding sources of this variation is the challenge for future work.

  20. Efficacy of antemortem rectal biopsies to diagnose and estimate prevalence of chronic wasting disease in free-ranging cow elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni).

    PubMed

    Monello, Ryan J; Powers, Jenny G; Hobbs, N Thompson; Spraker, Terry R; O'Rourke, Katherine I; Wild, Margaret A

    2013-04-01

    A reliable antemortem test is needed to understand the ecology of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni). We measured the ability of antemortem biopsy samples from the rectal mucosa to detect the abnormal prion protein associated with CWD (PrP(CWD)), the relationship between test results from the obex and rectal biopsies at varying stages of CWD progression, and the prevalence of CWD in free-ranging elk from Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA. We sampled and placed radio collars on 136 adult female elk in the winter of 2007-08. Elk with biopsy samples found positive for PrP(CWD) by immunohistochemistry (IHC) were euthanized and the obex and retropharyngeal lymph nodes were examined with IHC. We resampled, euthanized, and necropsied 20, 25, and 34 of the remaining study elk in each of the three following winters, respectively. Sensitivity of rectal biopsy samples increased in an asymptotic fashion with follicle count and was maximized at 85% (95% credible limits [CL]=60, 98) in the beginning of the study, when a greater proportion of elk were in a detectable stage of prion infection. However, maximum sensitivity was reduced to 72% (CL=46, 94) when we included resampled elk, which included recently infected elk that were initially negative using rectal biopsies and IHC. Test results were similar between rectal biopsies and the obex, but the earliest stages of prion infection were only detected by using retropharyngeal lymph nodes. Minimum CWD prevalence was estimated to be 9.9% (CL=5.7, 15.7) using rectal biopsies, but this rose to 12.9% (CL=8.0, 19.1) when we included four elk that were likely misdiagnosed at initial capture. Our results indicate rectal biopsies can provide a useful research tool for CWD in elk populations, but should be used with caution because they can miss individuals in early stages of infection and underestimate prevalence. Prevalence estimates from this population are the highest reported to date in elk and

  1. Misreporting of dietary intake affects estimated nutrient intakes in low-income Spanish-speaking women.

    PubMed

    Banna, Jinan C; Fialkowski, Marie K; Townsend, Marilyn S

    2015-07-01

    Misreporting of dietary intake affects the validity of data collected and conclusions drawn in studies exploring diet and health outcomes. One consequence of misreporting is biological implausibility. Little is known regarding how accounting for biological implausibility of reported intake affects nutrient intake estimates in Hispanics, a rapidly growing demographic in the United States. Our study explores the effect of accounting for plausibility on nutrient intake estimates in a sample of Mexican-American women in northern California in 2008. Nutrient intakes are compared with Dietary Reference Intake recommendations, and intakes of Mexican-American women in a national survey are presented as a reference. Eighty-two women provided three 24-hour recalls. Reported energy intakes were classified as biologically plausible or implausible using the reported energy intakes to total energy expenditure cutoff of <0.76 or >1.24, with low-active physical activity levels used to estimate total energy expenditure. Differences in the means of nutrient intakes between implausible (n=36) and plausible (n=46) reporters of energy intake were examined by bivariate linear regression. Estimated energy, protein, cholesterol, dietary fiber, and vitamin E intakes were significantly higher in plausible reporters than implausible. There was a significant difference between the proportions of plausible vs implausible reporters meeting recommendations for several nutrients, with a larger proportion of plausible reporters meeting recommendations. Further research related to misreporting in Hispanic populations is warranted to explore the causes and effects of misreporting in studies measuring dietary intake, as well as actions to be taken to prevent or account for this issue.

  2. Inconsistencies in place definition: How different operational place definitions affect estimates of adolescent smoking and drinking risk.

    PubMed

    Brady, Joanne E; Weitzman, Beth C

    2007-06-01

    We find that estimates of the prevalence of teenage smoking and drinking in "urban," "suburban," and "rural" areas vary with different definitions of these types of geographic units. Given the salience of youth risk behavior to the public debate, we urge researchers to purposefully choose their definitions of geographic areas and to be explicit about those choices.

  3. How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, P. J.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; De Moel, H.; Poussin, J. K.

    2012-04-01

    Flood management is more and more adopting a risk based approach, whereby flood risk is the product of the probability and consequences of flooding. One of the most common approaches in flood risk assessment is to estimate the damage that would occur for floods of several exceedance probabilities (or return periods), to plot these on an exceedance probability-loss curve (risk curve) and to estimate risk as the area under the curve. However, there is little insight into how the selection of the return-periods (which ones and how many) used to calculate risk actually affects the final risk calculation. To gain such insights, we developed and validated an inundation model capable of rapidly simulating inundation extent and depth, and dynamically coupled this to an existing damage model. The method was applied to a section of the River Meuse in the southeast of the Netherlands. Firstly, we estimated risk based on a risk curve using yearly return periods from 2 to 10 000 yr (€ 34 million p.a.). We found that the overall risk is greatly affected by the number of return periods used to construct the risk curve, with over-estimations of annual risk between 33% and 100% when only three return periods are used. Also, the final risk estimate is greatly dependent on the minimum and maximum return periods (and their associated damages) used in the construction of the risk curve. In addition, binary assumptions on dike failure can have a large effect (a factor two difference) on risk estimates. The results suggest that more research is needed to develop relatively simple inundation models that can be used to produce large numbers of inundation maps, complementary to more complex 2D-3D hydrodynamic models. We then used the insights and models described above to assess the relative change in risk between current conditions and several scenarios of land use and climate change. For the case study region, we found that future land use change has a larger impact than future climate

  4. Factors affecting the estimated probabilistic acute dietary exposure to captan from apple consumption.

    PubMed

    Zentai, A; Sali, J; Szabó, I J; Szeitzné-Szabó, M; Ambrus, A; Vásárhelyi, A

    2013-01-01

    The effect of the number of pesticide residue values below the LOQ/LOD of analytical methods, the variability of residues in individual fruits, mass of fruit units and the number of bootstrap iterations was studied on the probabilistically estimated acute exposure of consumers. The 4720 daily apple consumption data and the results of 1239 apple sample analyses for captan residues, performed within the Hungarian monitoring programme between 2005 and 2011, were used in this study as model matrix. Up to about 95th percentile exposure (µg/(kg bw·day)), simply multiplying each residue in composite samples with each consumption value gave similar estimates to those obtained with the complex procedure taking also into account the mass of and residues in individual fruits. However, the exposure above the 95th percentile calculated with the complex procedure gradually increased with increasing percentile level compared to the simple procedure. Including the high number of non-detects reduced the estimated exposure, which was the highest when only the residues measured in treated fruits were taken into account. The number of bootstrap iterations between 100 and 10,000 did not significantly affect the calculated exposure. The 99.99th percentile exposure amounted to 17.9% of the acute reference dose of 300 µg/(kg bw·day) for women of childbearing age.

  5. A method for estimating the effective number of loci affecting a quantitative character.

    PubMed

    Slatkin, Montgomery

    2013-11-01

    A likelihood method is introduced that jointly estimates the number of loci and the additive effect of alleles that account for the genetic variance of a normally distributed quantitative character in a randomly mating population. The method assumes that measurements of the character are available from one or both parents and an arbitrary number of full siblings. The method uses the fact, first recognized by Karl Pearson in 1904, that the variance of a character among offspring depends on both the parental phenotypes and on the number of loci. Simulations show that the method performs well provided that data from a sufficient number of families (on the order of thousands) are available. This method assumes that the loci are in Hardy-Weinberg and linkage equilibrium but does not assume anything about the linkage relationships. It performs equally well if all loci are on the same non-recombining chromosome provided they are in linkage equilibrium. The method can be adapted to take account of loci already identified as being associated with the character of interest. In that case, the method estimates the number of loci not already known to affect the character. The method applied to measurements of crown-rump length in 281 family trios in a captive colony of African green monkeys (Chlorocebus aethiopus sabaeus) estimates the number of loci to be 112 and the additive effect to be 0.26 cm. A parametric bootstrap analysis shows that a rough confidence interval has a lower bound of 14 loci.

  6. Global Estimates of the Prevalence and Incidence of Four Curable Sexually Transmitted Infections in 2012 Based on Systematic Review and Global Reporting

    PubMed Central

    Newman, Lori; Rowley, Jane; Vander Hoorn, Stephen; Wijesooriya, Nalinka Saman; Unemo, Magnus; Low, Nicola; Stevens, Gretchen; Gottlieb, Sami; Kiarie, James; Temmerman, Marleen

    2015-01-01

    Background Quantifying sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevalence and incidence is important for planning interventions and advocating for resources. The World Health Organization (WHO) periodically estimates global and regional prevalence and incidence of four curable STIs: chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis and syphilis. Methods and Findings WHO’s 2012 estimates were based upon literature reviews of prevalence data from 2005 through 2012 among general populations for genitourinary infection with chlamydia, gonorrhoea, and trichomoniasis, and nationally reported data on syphilis seroprevalence among antenatal care attendees. Data were standardized for laboratory test type, geography, age, and high risk subpopulations, and combined using a Bayesian meta-analytic approach. Regional incidence estimates were generated from prevalence estimates by adjusting for average duration of infection. In 2012, among women aged 15–49 years, the estimated global prevalence of chlamydia was 4.2% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 3.7–4.7%), gonorrhoea 0.8% (0.6–1.0%), trichomoniasis 5.0% (4.0–6.4%), and syphilis 0.5% (0.4–0.6%); among men, estimated chlamydia prevalence was 2.7% (2.0–3.6%), gonorrhoea 0.6% (0.4–0.9%), trichomoniasis 0.6% (0.4–0.8%), and syphilis 0.48% (0.3–0.7%). These figures correspond to an estimated 131 million new cases of chlamydia (100–166 million), 78 million of gonorrhoea (53–110 million), 143 million of trichomoniasis (98–202 million), and 6 million of syphilis (4–8 million). Prevalence and incidence estimates varied by region and sex. Conclusions Estimates of the global prevalence and incidence of chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis, and syphilis in adult women and men remain high, with nearly one million new infections with curable STI each day. The estimates highlight the urgent need for the public health community to ensure that well-recognized effective interventions for STI prevention, screening, diagnosis, and

  7. Estimating the Prevalence of Potential Enteropathogenic Escherichia coli and Intimin Gene Diversity in a Human Community by Monitoring Sanitary Sewage

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Kun; Pagaling, Eulyn

    2014-01-01

    Presently, the understanding of bacterial enteric diseases in the community and their virulence factors relies almost exclusively on clinical disease reporting and examination of clinical pathogen isolates. This study aimed to investigate the feasibility of an alternative approach that monitors potential enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (EPEC) and enterohemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC) prevalence and intimin gene (eae) diversity in a community by directly quantifying and characterizing target virulence genes in the sanitary sewage. The quantitative PCR (qPCR) quantification of the eae, stx1, and stx2 genes in sanitary sewage samples collected over a 13-month period detected eae in all 13 monthly sewage samples at significantly higher abundance (93 to 7,240 calibrator cell equivalents [CCE]/100 ml) than stx1 and stx2, which were detected sporadically. The prevalence level of potential EPEC in the sanitary sewage was estimated by calculating the ratio of eae to uidA, which averaged 1.0% (σ = 0.4%) over the 13-month period. Cloning and sequencing of the eae gene directly from the sewage samples covered the majority of the eae diversity in the sewage and detected 17 unique eae alleles belonging to 14 subtypes. Among them, eae-β2 was identified to be the most prevalent subtype in the sewage, with the highest detection frequency in the clone libraries (41.2%) and within the different sampling months (85.7%). Additionally, sewage and environmental E. coli isolates were also obtained and used to determine the detection frequencies of the virulence genes as well as eae genetic diversity for comparison. PMID:24141131

  8. How do different diagnostic criteria, age and gender affect the prevalence of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in adults? An epidemiological study in a Hungarian community sample.

    PubMed

    Bitter, István; Simon, Viktoria; Bálint, Sára; Mészáros, Agnes; Czobor, Pál

    2010-06-01

    The goal of the study was twofold: (1) to investigate the effect of different diagnostic criteria on prevalence estimates of adult attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and (2) to provide prevalence estimates of adult ADHD for the first time in a Hungarian sample. Subjects between 18 and 60 years were included in the screening phase of the study (N = 3,529), conducted in 17 GP practices in Budapest. Adult self-report scale 6-item version was used for screening. Out of 279 positively screened subjects 161 subjects participated in a clinical interview and filled out a self-report questionnaire to confirm the diagnosis. Beside DSM-IV diagnostic criteria, we applied four alternative diagnostic criteria: 'No-onset' (DSM-IV criteria without the specific requirement for onset); full/Sx (DSM-IV "symptoms only" criteria); and reduced/Sx (DSM-IV "symptoms only" criteria with a reduced threshold for symptom count). Crude prevalence estimates adjusted for the specificity and sensitivity data of the screener were 1.35% in the 'DSM-IV' group, 1.64% in the 'No-onset' group, 3.65% in the 'Sx/full' group and 4.16% in the 'Sx/reduced' group. Logistic regression analysis showed that ADHD was significantly more prevalent with younger age and male gender [chi(2) = 14.46; P = 0.0007]. Prevalence estimates corrected for the 'not-interviewed' subsample and adjusted for specificity and sensitivity data of the screener was 2.3% in males, 0.91% in females; 2.02% in the < or =40 years age group and 0.70% in the >40 years age group, based on DSM-IV diagnostic criteria. Prevalence rates found in this study are somewhat lower, but still are in line with those reported in the literature.

  9. Prevalence of hypothyroidism in nondiabetic chronic kidney disease and effect of thyroxine replacement on estimated glomerular filtration rate

    PubMed Central

    Bajaj, S.; Purwar, N.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, P.; Srivastava, A.

    2017-01-01

    Reduced T3 and free T4, elevated thyroid stimulating hormone, and hyporesponsiveness to thyrotropin releasing hormone raise questions about the presence of hypothyroidism in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and raise the possibility of benefit from thyroxine supplementation. A prospective cohort study was conducted on 73 nondiabetic CKD cases. Hypothyroid patients were started on levothyroxine and were reviewed after 3 and 6 months. The mean age of study population was 42.3 ± 16.8 years. Of the total population, 32 (43.8%) cases had hypothyroidism, among whom 2 (2.7%) had overt hypothyroidism and 30 (41.1%) had subclinical hypothyroidism. Prevalence of hypothyroidism increased with increasing severity of CKD. There were 1 (3.1%) case with hypothyroidism in stage 3b, 8 (25%) cases in stage 4, and 23 (71.9%) cases in stage 5. The mean estimated glomerular filtration rate (ml/min/1.73 m2) at baseline was 13.7 ± 8.9 which increased to 17.5 ± 6.8 and 22.4 ± 9.3 after 3 and 6 months of thyroid hormone replacement therapy (THRT), respectively (P < 0.001). Hypothyroidism is commonly associated with nondiabetic CKD and its prevalence increases with declining renal function. THRT significantly improves renal function in nondiabetic CKD with hypothyroidism. PMID:28356660

  10. Prevalence, incidence estimations, and risk factors of Toxoplasma gondii infection in Germany: a representative, cross-sectional, serological study

    PubMed Central

    Wilking, Hendrik; Thamm, Michael; Stark, Klaus; Aebischer, Toni; Seeber, Frank

    2016-01-01

    Representative data on the extent of endemicity, burden, and risk of human toxoplasmosis are scarce. We assessed the prevalence and determinants of seropositivity of Toxoplasma gondii among adult participants of a nationwide representative cross-sectional survey in Germany. Sera collected from a representative cohort of adults (age 18–79; n = 6,663) in Germany were tested for anti-T. gondii IgG antibodies. Interview-derived data were used to evaluate associated factors. Multivariable logistic regression was applied using sampling weights and accounting for survey design cluster effects. Seroprevalence increased from 20% (95%-CI:17–23%) in the 18–29 age group to 77% (95%-CI:73–81%) in the 70–79 age group. Male gender, keeping cats and BMI ≥30 were independent risk factors for seropositivity, while being vegetarian and high socio-economic status were negatively associated. Based on these data, we estimate 1.1% of adults and 1.3% of women aged 18–49 to seroconvert each year. This implies 6,393 seroconversions annually during pregnancies. We conclude that T. gondii infection in Germany is highly prevalent and that eating habits (consuming raw meat) appear to be of high epidemiological relevance. High numbers of seroconversions during pregnancies pose substantial risks for unborn children. Efforts to raise awareness of toxoplasmosis in public health programs targeting to T. gondii transmission control are therefore strongly advocated. PMID:26936108

  11. Fitting HIV Prevalence 1981 Onwards for Three Indian States Using the Goals Model and the Estimation and Projection Package

    PubMed Central

    Bhatnagar, Tarun; Dutta, Tapati; Stover, John; Godbole, Sheela; Sahu, Damodar; Boopathi, Kangusamy; Bembalkar, Shilpa; Singh, Kh. Jitenkumar; Goyal, Rajat; Pandey, Arvind; Mehendale, Sanjay M.

    2016-01-01

    Models are designed to provide evidence for strategic program planning by examining the impact of different interventions on projected HIV incidence. We employed the Goals Model to fit the HIV epidemic curves in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu states of India where HIV epidemic is considered to have matured and in a declining phase. Input data in the Goals Model consisted of demographic, epidemiological, transmission-related and risk group wise behavioral parameters. The HIV prevalence curves generated in the Goals Model for each risk group in the three states were compared with the epidemic curves generated by the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) that the national program is routinely using. In all the three states, the HIV prevalence trends for high-risk populations simulated by the Goals Model matched well with those derived using state-level HIV surveillance data in the EPP. However, trends for the low- and medium-risk populations differed between the two models. This highlights the need to generate more representative and robust data in these sub-populations and consider some structural changes in the modeling equation and parameters in the Goals Model to effectively use it to assess the impact of future strategies of HIV control in various sub-populations in India at the sub-national level. PMID:27711212

  12. Total population study of factors affecting chronic bronchitis prevalence in the coal mining industry of New South Wales, Australia.

    PubMed Central

    Leigh, J; Wiles, A N; Glick, M

    1986-01-01

    The period prevalence of simple chronic bronchitis (SCB) (mucus hypersecretion), defined as chronic cough and sputum production by the MRC respiratory symptom questionnaire administered by occupational physicians and of obstructive chronic bronchitis (OCB) (airflow obstruction) (defined as SCB plus FEV1 less than 80% predicted) have been measured over the period 30 June 1977-30 June 1980 in the entire work force aged between 21 and 60 of the coal industry of New South Wales, Australia (12 357 men). Four dimensional contingency table analysis by a logistic transform method showed highly significant (p less than 0.001) additive affects of age (exposure duration), site of work, smoking, and alcohol consumption on development of overall chronic bronchitis (SCB + OCB). Odds ratios were face work:surface work = 1.78:1, smoker:non-smoker = 4.23:1, alcohol greater than 300 g/wk:alcohol less than 300 g/wk = 2.13:1. There was no evidence for synergistic effects of these factors on the development of mucus hypersecretion. When OCB was analysed separately, the effect of site of work, although in the same direction, was not statistically significant and this was assumed to be due to a "healthy worker" effect or a "swamping" effect of smoking. Age, smoking, and alcohol effects were highly significant (p less than 0.0001) and there was a sharp increase in prevalence of OCB in the age groups 41-50 and 51-60. Odds ratios were face work:surface work = 1.11:1, smoker:non-smoker = 2.66:1, alcohol greater than 300 g/wk:alcohol less than 300 g/wk = 2.91:1. There was no evidence of synergistic effects. These results are consistent with a hypothesis of additive effects of smoking, alcohol, and coal mine dust and fumes on the development of chronic mucus hypersecretion leading to airflow obstruction or a hypothesis of similar additive effects on the development of two separate conditions--mucus hypersecretion with airflow obstruction and mucus hypersecretion without airflow obstruction

  13. A humanitarian preparedness toolbox: estimating flood affected figures and exposure of livelihoods to future floods events, using freely available datasets.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paron, Paolo; von Hagen, Craig; Peppino Disperati, Stefano; Hermansyah, Budi; Shaheen, Imra; Jan, Qasim; Berloffa, Andrea; Khan, Ruby; Fakhre, Alam

    2013-04-01

    Pakistan is highly disaster-prone, with three major flood disasters occurred in the past three years, yet major losses are not inevitable. Farming-based families still struggling to recover from 2010 and 2011 floods have again faced another bad monsoon season in 2012. Meanwhile, the likelihood of yet more natural disasters in the future is high as the phenomenon of climate change is increasing the prevalence of extreme weather conditions. Even with less rainfall, the risk of flooding this year remains high, while many villages have not fully recovered from the 2011-2012 floods. It is of utmost importance to support the most vulnerable rural communities to recover their flood-affected livelihoods. In the meantime, prioritizing disaster preparedness through flood hazard and population mapping is crucial to ensure that realistic contingency plans are in place to deliver an effective and timely response and reduce the impact of floods before they strike. To increase preparedness in future floods, an integrated approach that builds the resilience of flood affected community and enhances emergency preparedness based on reliable data is critical. We present here the innovative methodology developed for estimating population and livelihood that could potentially be affected by a future flood scenario, as well as a methodology for knowing where these people are located, along with an overview of their livelihood pattern. This project has used only freely available dataset, due to the urgency of providing a toolbox to the humanitarian community and the absence of readily available detailed information on natural hazards and exposure in Pakistan. The estimated figures resulting from this project, would provide the Food Security stakeholders with adequate information and data for programming a tailored response in case of floods during future monsoon season. For the purpose of preparedness, understanding the risks, and its potential magnitude, is crucial to provide decision

  14. Exonic Splicing Mutations Are More Prevalent than Currently Estimated and Can Be Predicted by Using In Silico Tools

    PubMed Central

    Soukarieh, Omar; Gaildrat, Pascaline; Hamieh, Mohamad; Drouet, Aurélie; Baert-Desurmont, Stéphanie; Frébourg, Thierry; Tosi, Mario; Martins, Alexandra

    2016-01-01

    The identification of a causal mutation is essential for molecular diagnosis and clinical management of many genetic disorders. However, even if next-generation exome sequencing has greatly improved the detection of nucleotide changes, the biological interpretation of most exonic variants remains challenging. Moreover, particular attention is typically given to protein-coding changes often neglecting the potential impact of exonic variants on RNA splicing. Here, we used the exon 10 of MLH1, a gene implicated in hereditary cancer, as a model system to assess the prevalence of RNA splicing mutations among all single-nucleotide variants identified in a given exon. We performed comprehensive minigene assays and analyzed patient’s RNA when available. Our study revealed a staggering number of splicing mutations in MLH1 exon 10 (77% of the 22 analyzed variants), including mutations directly affecting splice sites and, particularly, mutations altering potential splicing regulatory elements (ESRs). We then used this thoroughly characterized dataset, together with experimental data derived from previous studies on BRCA1, BRCA2, CFTR and NF1, to evaluate the predictive power of 3 in silico approaches recently described as promising tools for pinpointing ESR-mutations. Our results indicate that ΔtESRseq and ΔHZEI-based approaches not only discriminate which variants affect splicing, but also predict the direction and severity of the induced splicing defects. In contrast, the ΔΨ-based approach did not show a compelling predictive power. Our data indicates that exonic splicing mutations are more prevalent than currently appreciated and that they can now be predicted by using bioinformatics methods. These findings have implications for all genetically-caused diseases. PMID:26761715

  15. Statistical Properties of Real-Time Amplitude Estimate of Harmonics Affected by Frequency Instability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bellan, Diego; Pignari, Sergio A.

    2016-07-01

    This work deals with the statistical characterization of real-time digital measurement of the amplitude of harmonics affected by frequency instability. In fact, in modern power systems both the presence of harmonics and frequency instability are well-known and widespread phenomena mainly due to nonlinear loads and distributed generation, respectively. As a result, real-time monitoring of voltage/current frequency spectra is of paramount importance as far as power quality issues are addressed. Within this framework, a key point is that in many cases real-time continuous monitoring prevents the application of sophisticated algorithms to extract all the information from the digitized waveforms because of the required computational burden. In those cases only simple evaluations such as peak search of discrete Fourier transform are implemented. It is well known, however, that a slight change in waveform frequency results in lack of sampling synchronism and uncertainty in amplitude estimate. Of course the impact of this phenomenon increases with the order of the harmonic to be measured. In this paper an approximate analytical approach is proposed in order to describe the statistical properties of the measured magnitude of harmonics affected by frequency instability. By providing a simplified description of the frequency behavior of the windows used against spectral leakage, analytical expressions for mean value, variance, cumulative distribution function, and probability density function of the measured harmonics magnitude are derived in closed form as functions of waveform frequency treated as a random variable.

  16. Sediment quality thresholds: Estimates from hockey stick regression of liver lesion prevalence in English sole (Pleuronectes vetulus)

    SciTech Connect

    Horness, B.H.; Lomax, D.P.; Johnson, L.L.; Myers, M.S.; Pierce, S.M.; Collier, T.K.

    1998-01-01

    Comprehensive, integrative assessments of coastal sediment quality are best effected by using large, diverse data sets that include measures of biological dysfunction observed in association with chronic exposure to sediment contaminants. Under the auspices of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration`s National Status and Trends Program, the National Benthic Surveillance Project accumulated a database of synoptic sediment contaminant concentrations and indices of biological effects that were measured in indigenous animals collected during field surveys conducted from 1984 to 1994. This compilation of data provided the opportunity to develop a new approach for determining sediment quality criteria to add to the current repertoire of environmental assessment tools. Using a two-segment hockey stick regression, statistically significant chemical thresholds of biological effects were estimated for hepatic lesion prevalences in English sole (Pleuronectes vetulus, formerly Parophrys vetulus) in relation to sediment concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. These threshold estimates are notably lower than many of those reported for other techniques. Application of this relatively simple dose-response model to subacute, chronic effects that are involved in pepatocarcinogenesis and associated with sediment toxicant content (1) reflects the link between toxicopathic disease progression and conditions observed in benthic fish exposed to contaminants and (2) provides endpoints for assessing sediment quality contaminant concentrations that are not necessarily acutely fatal but may have long-term health implications for populations that are chronically exposed.

  17. The Use of Innovative Two-Component Cluster Analysis and Serodiagnostic Cut-Off Methods to Estimate Prevalence of Pertussis Reinfections

    PubMed Central

    van Twillert, Inonge; Bonačić Marinović, Axel A.; van Gaans-van den Brink, Jacqueline A. M.; Kuipers, Betsy; Berbers, Guy A. M.; van der Maas, Nicoline A. T.; Verheij, Theo J. M.; Versteegh, Florens G. A.; Teunis, Peter F. M.; van Els, Cécile A. C. M.

    2016-01-01

    Bordetella pertussis circulates even in highly vaccinated countries affecting all age groups. Insight into the scale of concealed reinfections is important as they may contribute to transmission. We therefore investigated whether current single-point serodiagnostic methods are suitable to estimate the prevalence of pertussis reinfection. Two methods based on IgG-Ptx plasma levels alone were used to evaluate the proportion of renewed seroconversions in the past year in a cohort of retrospective pertussis cases ≥ 24 months after a proven earlier symptomatic infection. A Dutch population database was used as a baseline. Applying a classical 62.5 IU/ml IgG-Ptx cut-off, we calculated a seroprevalence of 15% in retrospective cases, higher than the 10% observed in the population baseline. However, this method could not discriminate between renewed seroconversion and waning of previously infection-enhanced IgG-Ptx levels. Two-component cluster analysis of the IgG-Ptx datasets of both pertussis cases and the general population revealed a continuum of intermediate IgG-Ptx levels, preventing the establishment of a positive population and the comparison of prevalence by this alternative method. Next, we investigated the complementary serodiagnostic value of IgA-Ptx levels. When modelling datasets including both convalescent and retrospective cases we obtained new cut-offs for both IgG-Ptx and IgA-Ptx that were optimized to evaluate renewed seroconversions in the ex-cases target population. Combining these cut-offs two-dimensionally, we calculated 8.0% reinfections in retrospective cases, being below the baseline seroprevalence. Our study for the first time revealed the shortcomings of using only IgG-Ptx data in conventional serodiagnostic methods to determine pertussis reinfections. Improved results can be obtained with two-dimensional serodiagnostic profiling. The proportion of reinfections thus established suggests a relatively increased period of protection to renewed

  18. The Use of Innovative Two-Component Cluster Analysis and Serodiagnostic Cut-Off Methods to Estimate Prevalence of Pertussis Reinfections.

    PubMed

    van Twillert, Inonge; Bonačić Marinović, Axel A; van Gaans-van den Brink, Jacqueline A M; Kuipers, Betsy; Berbers, Guy A M; van der Maas, Nicoline A T; Verheij, Theo J M; Versteegh, Florens G A; Teunis, Peter F M; van Els, Cécile A C M

    2016-01-01

    Bordetella pertussis circulates even in highly vaccinated countries affecting all age groups. Insight into the scale of concealed reinfections is important as they may contribute to transmission. We therefore investigated whether current single-point serodiagnostic methods are suitable to estimate the prevalence of pertussis reinfection. Two methods based on IgG-Ptx plasma levels alone were used to evaluate the proportion of renewed seroconversions in the past year in a cohort of retrospective pertussis cases ≥ 24 months after a proven earlier symptomatic infection. A Dutch population database was used as a baseline. Applying a classical 62.5 IU/ml IgG-Ptx cut-off, we calculated a seroprevalence of 15% in retrospective cases, higher than the 10% observed in the population baseline. However, this method could not discriminate between renewed seroconversion and waning of previously infection-enhanced IgG-Ptx levels. Two-component cluster analysis of the IgG-Ptx datasets of both pertussis cases and the general population revealed a continuum of intermediate IgG-Ptx levels, preventing the establishment of a positive population and the comparison of prevalence by this alternative method. Next, we investigated the complementary serodiagnostic value of IgA-Ptx levels. When modelling datasets including both convalescent and retrospective cases we obtained new cut-offs for both IgG-Ptx and IgA-Ptx that were optimized to evaluate renewed seroconversions in the ex-cases target population. Combining these cut-offs two-dimensionally, we calculated 8.0% reinfections in retrospective cases, being below the baseline seroprevalence. Our study for the first time revealed the shortcomings of using only IgG-Ptx data in conventional serodiagnostic methods to determine pertussis reinfections. Improved results can be obtained with two-dimensional serodiagnostic profiling. The proportion of reinfections thus established suggests a relatively increased period of protection to renewed

  19. Prevalence of obesity and affecting factors in physically disabled adults living in the city centre of Malatya

    PubMed Central

    Bozkir, Çiğdem; Özer, Ali; Pehlivan, Erkan

    2016-01-01

    Objective The purpose of this study was to investigate the prevalence of obesity, and the risk factors associated with it, in physically disabled adults living in the city centre of Malatya, Turkey. Method This research was designed as a cross-sectional study conducted on physically disabled people aged 20–65 years living in the city centre of Malatya. The prevalence of obesity in disabled people was within 95% CIs, the power was calculated as 80%, and the sample size of our population was calculated as 258 individuals. Results The prevalence of obesity was found to be 13.2%. The relationship between disability type and obesity status was found to be significant. The prevalence of obesity was 21.3% in visually impaired people, 17.9% in speech-impaired people, 17.8% in hearing-impaired people and 6.5% in orthopaedically disabled people. Conclusions Educational interventions on nutrition and lifestyle can be effective considering the high prevalence of obesity in visually impaired people, the prevalence of weakness in orthopaedically disabled people and the risk related to the area in which body fat is localised even when body mass index is within the normal range. Training disabled people in sports appropriate to their disability type and building appropriate facilities for those sports might have a positive effect. PMID:27609842

  20. Hepatitis B prevalence in Denmark - an estimate based on nationwide registers and a national screening programme, as on 31 December 2007.

    PubMed

    Hansen, N; Hay, G; Cowan, S; Jepsen, P; Bygum Krarup, H; Obel, N; Weis, N; Brehm Christensen, P

    2013-11-21

    The prevalence of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in Denmark is not clear. The primary aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection in Denmark. The capture–recapture method was used to estimate the total population diagnosed with chronic HBV infection in Denmark using four nationwide registers. The population with undiagnosed chronic HBV infection was estimated by incorporating data from a two-year nationwide HBsAg screening programme in pregnant women. We identified 4,466 individuals with chronic HBV infection in the four registers until the end of 2007, and the capture–recapture estimate of the total population diagnosed with chronic hepatitis B was 7,112 (95% confidence interval (CI): 6,953–10,747). Only 17% of the identified patients attended recommended clinical care according to national guidelines. Including undiagnosed patients, the current population alive with HBV infection was 10,668 (95% CI: 10,224–16,164), corresponding to a prevalence of 0.24% (95% CI: 0.23–0.37%) in the Danish population older than 15 years. The estimated prevalence of chronic HBV infection among adults in Denmark was lower than reported from other northern European countries. Only half of the infected population had been diagnosed, and a minority attended specialised clinical care.

  1. Selection of meteorological parameters affecting rainfall estimation using neuro-fuzzy computing methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashim, Roslan; Roy, Chandrabhushan; Motamedi, Shervin; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Petković, Dalibor; Gocic, Milan; Lee, Siew Cheng

    2016-05-01

    Rainfall is a complex atmospheric process that varies over time and space. Researchers have used various empirical and numerical methods to enhance estimation of rainfall intensity. We developed a novel prediction model in this study, with the emphasis on accuracy to identify the most significant meteorological parameters having effect on rainfall. For this, we used five input parameters: wet day frequency (dwet), vapor pressure (e̅a), and maximum and minimum air temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) as well as cloud cover (cc). The data were obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department for the Patna city, Bihar, India. Further, a type of soft-computing method, known as the adaptive-neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), was applied to the available data. In this respect, the observation data from 1901 to 2000 were employed for testing, validating, and estimating monthly rainfall via the simulated model. In addition, the ANFIS process for variable selection was implemented to detect the predominant variables affecting the rainfall prediction. Finally, the performance of the model was compared to other soft-computing approaches, including the artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), extreme learning machine (ELM), and genetic programming (GP). The results revealed that ANN, ELM, ANFIS, SVM, and GP had R2 of 0.9531, 0.9572, 0.9764, 0.9525, and 0.9526, respectively. Therefore, we conclude that the ANFIS is the best method among all to predict monthly rainfall. Moreover, dwet was found to be the most influential parameter for rainfall prediction, and the best predictor of accuracy. This study also identified sets of two and three meteorological parameters that show the best predictions.

  2. Satellite based classification (haze, fog) and affected area estimation over Indo - Pak Sub-Continent

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghauri, Badar; Zafar, Sumaira

    2016-07-01

    Northern Pakistan and bordering Indian Punjab experience intense smog and fog during fall and winters. Environmentalists have been raising their voices over the situation and demanded control over regional emissions to save the livelihood of millions of dwellers whose trade, commerce and agriculture is at stake because of long smog/ fog spells.. This paper estimates the area affected by haze, smog and fog during 2006- 2010. MODIS (geo-referenced MODIS subsets India1, 2 &3) of the area in Pakistan and India from 2006 to 2010 for the period October to February) were analyzed using state of the art software ENVI 4.2 and ArcGIS 10.2. This process resulted in area belonging to each class that is; haze, smog and fog. On the basis of density, haze and fog cover was determined. Variations in fog cover, its density and identification of location of fog initiation process were also determined using near real time (30 minutes) METEOSAT-7 IODC data where actually fog formation started and then extended to the area of favorable conditions. Haze has been noticed to intensify due to massive burning of agricultural waste (rice husk) in India and Pakistan towards the end of October each year. MODIS thermal anomalies/fire data (MYD 14) were also used to verify this activity on the ground, which results in hazy conditions at regional level during fall months. Haze-affected area during 2006 to 2010 in Pakistan ranged from 155,000 Km2 to 354,000 Km2 and in India it ranged from 333,000 Km2 to 846,000 Km2. Similarly winter fog cover during this period in Pakistan varied from 136,000 Km2 to 381,000 Km2 and in India it was estimated at 327,000 Km2 to 566,000 Km2. This phenomenon was more prominent in India than in Pakistan where and fog cover was at least twice than that was observed in Pakistan. It has been noted that area covered by fog, smog and haze doubled during the study period in the region. Atmospheric dimming during autumn/ fall also reduces the mixing height leading to greater

  3. Estimation of the growth kinetic parameters of Bacillus cereus spores as affected by pulsed light treatment.

    PubMed

    Aguirre, Juan S; de Fernando, Gonzalo García; Hierro, Eva; Hospital, Xavier F; Ordóñez, Juan A; Fernández, Manuela

    2015-06-02

    Quantitative microbial risk assessment requires the knowledge of the effect of food preservation technologies on the growth parameters of the survivors of the treatment. This is of special interest in the case of the new non-thermal technologies that are being investigated for minimal processing of foods. This is a study on the effect of pulsed light technology (PL) on the lag phase of Bacillus cereus spores surviving the treatment and the maximum growth rate (μmax) of the survivors after germination. The D value was estimated as 0.35 J/cm(2) and our findings showed that PL affected the kinetic parameters of the microorganism. A log linear relationship was observed between the lag phase and the intensity of the treatment. Increasing the lethality lengthened the mean lag phase and proportionally increased its variability. A polynomial regression was fitted between the μmax of the survivors and the inactivation achieved. The μmax decreased as intensity increased. From these data, and their comparison to published results on the effect of heat and e-beam irradiation on B. cereus spores, it was observed that the shelf-life of PL treated foods would be longer than those treated with heat and similar to irradiated ones. These findings offer information of interest for the implementation of PL for microbial decontamination in the food industry.

  4. Prevalence and factors affecting use of long acting and permanent contraceptive methods in Jinka town, Southern Ethiopia: a cross sectional study

    PubMed Central

    Mekonnen, Getachew; Enquselassie, Fikre; Tesfaye, Gezahegn; Semahegn, Agumasie

    2014-01-01

    Introduction In Ethiopia, knowledge of contraceptive methods is high though there is low contraceptive prevalence rate. This study was aimed to assess prevalence and associated factors of long acting and permanent contraceptive methods in Jinka town, southern Ethiopia. Methods Community based cross sectional survey was conducted to assess the prevalence and factors affecting long acting and permanent methods of contraceptives utilization from March to April 2008. Eight hundred child bearing age women were participated in the quantitative study and 32 purposively selected focus group discussants were participated in the qualitative study. Face to face interview was used for data collection. Data were analyzed by SPSS version 13.0 statistical software. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression were computed to analyze the data. Results The prevalence of long acting and permanent contraceptive method was 7.3%. Three fourth (76.1%) of the women have ever heard about implants and implant 28 (50%) were the most widely used method. Almost two third of women had intention to use long acting and permanent methods. Knowledge of contraceptive and age of women have significant association with the use of long acting and permanent contraceptive methods. Conclusion The overall prevalence of long acting and permanent contraceptive method was low. Knowledge of contraceptive and age of women have significant association with use of long acting and permanent contraceptive. Extensive health information should be provided. PMID:25404960

  5. Posttraumatic stress disorder in DSM-5: estimates of prevalence and symptom structure in a nonclinical sample of college students.

    PubMed

    Elhai, Jon D; Miller, Megan E; Ford, Julian D; Biehn, Tracey L; Palmieri, Patrick A; Frueh, B Christopher

    2012-01-01

    We empirically investigated recent proposed changes to the posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) diagnosis for DSM-5 using a non-clinical sample. A web survey was administered to 585 college students using the Stressful Life Events Screening Questionnaire to assess for trauma exposure but with additions for the proposed traumatic stressor changes in DSM-5 PTSD. For the 216 subjects endorsing previous trauma exposure and nominating a worst traumatic event, we administered the original PTSD Symptom Scale based on DSM-IV PTSD symptom criteria and an adapted version for DSM-5 symptoms, and the Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression Scale. While 67% of participants endorsed at least one traumatic event based on DSM-IV PTSD's trauma classification, 59% of participants would meet DSM-5 PTSD's proposed trauma classification. Estimates of current PTSD prevalence were .4-1.8% points higher for the DSM-5 (vs. the DSM-IV) diagnostic algorithm. The DSM-5 symptom set fit the data very well based on confirmatory factor analysis, and neither symptom set's factors were more correlated with depression.

  6. Status of Cardiovascular Health in US Adults: Prevalence Estimates from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) 2003-2008

    PubMed Central

    Shay, Christina M.; Ning, Hongyan; Allen, Norrina B.; Carnethon, Mercedes R.; Chiuve, Stephanie E.; Greenlund, Kurt J.; Daviglus, Martha L.; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M.

    2014-01-01

    Background The American Heart Association's 2020 Strategic Impact Goals define a new concept, “cardiovascular (CV) health”; however, current prevalence estimates of the status of CV health in U.S. adults according to age, sex and race/ethnicity have not been published. Methods and Results We included 14,515 adults (≥20 years) from the 2003-2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. Participants were stratified by young (20-39 years), middle (40-64 years), and older ages (65+ years). CV health behaviors (diet, physical activity, body mass index, smoking) and CV health factors (blood pressure, total cholesterol, fasting blood glucose, smoking) were defined as poor, intermediate, or ideal. Less than 1% of adults exhibited ideal CV health for all 7 metrics. For CV health behaviors, non-smoking was most prevalent (range:60.2-90.4%) while ideal Healthy Diet Score was least prevalent (range:0.2-2.6%) across groups. Prevalence of ideal BMI (range:36.5-45.3%) and ideal physical activity levels (range:50.2-58.8%) were higher in young adults compared to middle or older ages. Ideal total cholesterol (range:23.7-36.2%), blood pressure (range:11.9-16.3%) and fasting blood glucose (range:31.2-42.9%) were lower in older adults compared with young and middle age adults.Prevalence of poor CV health factors was lowest in young age but higher at middle and older ages. Prevalence estimates by age and sex were consistent across race/ethnic groups. Conclusions These prevalence estimates of CV health represent a starting point from which effectiveness of efforts to promote CV health and prevent CV disease can be monitored and compared in U.S. adult populations. PMID:22095826

  7. Estimating gonorrhoea prevalence in young heterosexual men and women attending community-based sexual health services to inform decisions on gonorrhoea testing.

    PubMed

    Town, K; Furegato, M; Field, N; Hughes, G

    2017-03-03

    In England, dual tests detecting chlamydia and gonorrhoea are used in specialist and community-based sexual health services (SHSs). Test performance is poor when prevalence is low, therefore UK national guidelines recommend against opportunistic gonorrhoea screening unless there is a clear local public health need. While surveillance data on gonorrhoea prevalence is comprehensive in specialist SHSs, it is sparse in community SHSs. We aimed to estimate gonorrhoea prevalence in heterosexual men and women aged 15-24 attending community SHSs to inform testing care pathways. We used linear and quadratic regression to model the relationship between prevalence in community and specialist SHSs in local authorities (LAs) with available surveillance data. We applied best-fitting models to predict prevalence in community SHSs in remaining LAs. Data from community SHSs were available for 102/326 LAs. There was a weak positive association between gonorrhoea prevalence in community and specialist SHSs in corresponding LAs within (R 2 = 0·13, P = 0·058) and outside (R 2 = 0·07, P = 0·02) London. Applying best-fitting models, we estimated a median gonorrhoea prevalence of 0·5% (mean 0·6%; range 0·2%-2·7%) in heterosexuals attending community SHSs. Despite some unexplained variation, our analyses suggest gonorrhoea prevalence in young heterosexuals attending community SHSs is below 1% in most English LAs. Our findings re-inforce the current national guidelines that recommend care pathways for gonorrhoea testing in community SHSs include confirmatory testing to reduce the risk of misdiagnosis and inappropriate management.

  8. Hate Crimes and Stigma-Related Experiences among Sexual Minority Adults in the United States: Prevalence Estimates from a National Probability Sample

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Herek, Gregory M.

    2009-01-01

    Using survey responses collected via the Internet from a U.S. national probability sample of gay, lesbian, and bisexual adults (N = 662), this article reports prevalence estimates of criminal victimization and related experiences based on the target's sexual orientation. Approximately 20% of respondents reported having experienced a person or…

  9. Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate HIV prevalence in men who have sex with men in Poland at the end of 2009.

    PubMed

    Rosinska, M; Gwiazda, P; De Angelis, D; Presanis, A M

    2016-04-01

    HIV spread in men who have sex with men (MSM) is an increasing problem in Poland. Despite the existence of a surveillance system, there is no direct evidence to allow estimation of HIV prevalence and the proportion undiagnosed in MSM. We extracted data on HIV and the MSM population in Poland, including case-based surveillance data, diagnostic testing prevalence data and behavioural data relating to self-reported prior diagnosis, stratified by age (⩽35, >35 years) and region (Mazowieckie including the capital city of Warsaw; other regions). They were integrated into one model based on a Bayesian evidence synthesis approach. The posterior distributions for HIV prevalence and the undiagnosed fraction were estimated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. To improve the model fit we repeated the analysis, introducing bias parameters to account for potential lack of representativeness in data. By placing additional constraints on bias parameters we obtained precisely identified estimates. This family of models indicates a high undiagnosed fraction [68·3%, 95% credibility interval (CrI) 53·9-76·1] and overall low prevalence (2·3%, 95% CrI 1·4-4·1) of HIV in MSM. Additional data are necessary in order to produce more robust epidemiological estimates. More effort is urgently needed to ensure timely diagnosis of HIV in Poland.

  10. The prevalence of Campylobacter amongst a free-range broiler breeder flock was primarily affected by flock age.

    PubMed

    Colles, Frances M; McCarthy, Noel D; Layton, Ruth; Maiden, Martin C J

    2011-01-01

    Campylobacter successfully colonizes broiler chickens, but little is known about the longer term natural history of colonization, since most flocks are slaughtered at an immature age. In this study, the prevalence and genetic diversity of Campylobacter colonizing a single free-range broiler breeder flock was investigated over the course of a year. The age of the flock was the most important factor in determining both the prevalence and diversity of Campylobacter over time. There was no correlation with season, temperature, the amount of rain and sunshine, or the dynamics of colonization amongst geographically and temporally matched broiler flocks. The higher prevalence rates coincided with the age at which broiler chickens are typically slaughtered, but then in the absence of bio-security or other intervention methods, and despite changes in flock management, the prevalence fell to significantly lower levels for the remainder of the study. The genetic diversity of Campylobacter increased as the flock aged, implying that genotypes were accumulated within the flock and may persist for a long time. A better understanding of the ecology of Campylobacter within commercial chicken flocks will allow the design of more effective farm-based interventions.

  11. The type of mat (Contact vs. Photocell) affects vertical jump height estimated from flight time.

    PubMed

    García-López, Juan; Morante, Juan C; Ogueta-Alday, Ana; Rodríguez-Marroyo, Jose A

    2013-04-01

    The purposes of this study were to analyze the validity and reliability of 2 photocell mats and to probe the possible influence of the type of mat (contact vs. photocell) on vertical jump height estimated from flight time. In 2 separate studies, 89 and 92 physical students performed 3 countermovement jumps that were simultaneously registered by a Force Plate (gold standard method), 2 photocell mats (SportJump System Pro and ErgoJump Plus), and a contact mat (SportJump-v1.0). The first study showed that the 2 photocell mats underestimated the vertical jump height (1.3 ± 0.2 cm and 5.9 ± 5.2 cm, respectively), but only SportJump System Pro showed a high correlation with the Force Plate (r = 0.999 and 0.676, respectively) and good intraday reliability (coefficient of variation = 2.98 and 15.94%, intraclass correlation coefficients = 0.95-0.97 and 0.45-0.57, respectively). The second study demonstrated a strong correlation (r = 0.994) between the 2 technologies (contact vs. photocell mats) with differences in vertical jump height of 2.0 ± 0.8 cm (95% confidence interval = 1.9-2.1 cm), which depended on both flight time and subjects' body mass. In conclusion, SportJump System Pro was a valid and reliable device. The new devices to measure vertical jump height from flight time should be validated. The type of mat (contact vs. photocell) affected approximately 6% the vertical jump height (approximately 2 cm in this study), which should be considered in further studies. The use of validated photocell mats instead of the contact mats was recommended.

  12. Multimodel Estimate of Global Water Resources Affected by Human Interventions and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haddeland, I.; Biemans, H.; Flörke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Stacke, T.; Tessler, Z. D.; Wada, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Several global hydrologic models have recently implemented reservoir operations and water withdrawals in their modeling schemes. Seven of these models (H08, LPJmL, PCR-GLOBWB, MPI-HM, VIC, WaterGAP and WBM) have been run within the framework of two model inter-comparison projects - the currently running Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) and its predecessor on the water sector the Water Model Intercomparison Project (WaterMIP). In both projects hydrological models were forced with multiple climate projections from different Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) taking into account present day human interventions on the hydrological cycle such as dams and water withdrawals. By integrating results from the two projects we benefit form a large ensemble size that allows for assessments of uncertainties from climate projections from different AOGCMs. Here, multimodel analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the annual water cycle in some regions are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2K). In many river basins the relative effects of human interventions are much larger at the seasonal level than at the annual level. There is, however, a considerable spread in the model estimates of these impacts. Possible reasons for this spread, e.g. differences in the reservoir operation schemes, are discussed.

  13. Estimation of prevalence of periodontal disease and oral lesions and their relation to CD4 counts in HIV seropositive patients on antiretroviral therapy regimen reporting at District General Hospital, Raichur

    PubMed Central

    Ravi, Jagganatha Rao; Rao, Tuthipat Ramachandra Gururaja

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Acquired Immuno Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) is a condition in which the body becomes susceptible to a host of opportunistic infections. This syndrome is a culmination of infection with a lenti virus called Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) particularly HIV 1. A cross section of the population including adults and children are affected by HIV infection with estimate of 36.1 million affected by the end of 2014. HIV infection affects the T lymphocytes especially cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) count reducing it drastically jeopardizing the acquired immunity. The advent of Anti Retroviral Therapy (ART) has proved as a ray of hope, at least reducing the misery and suffering although not permanently. This study attempts to understand the prevalence of periodontal disease and other oral lesions, further examining their relationship with CD4 counts in the HIV seropositive patients on ART. Materials and Methods: A total of 72 HIV positive patients on ART reporting at ART centre at Raichur District hospital were screened in the study for periodontal status, oral manifestations. The latest CD4 count values were obtained from the hospital records. Results: The study showed a 36.11% of prevalence of periodontal disease; however no statistically significant association was seen with its relation to CD4 counts. Other oral manifestations were seen in 46% of patients with a high prevalence of Oral Candidiasis lesions and a positive association with CD 4 counts was seen. Conclusion: Under the limitations of this study no significant association was seen between CD4 counts and prevalence of periodontal disease however candiasis showed a stronger association. As HIV infection gradually becomes a chronic disease the features and course of chronic periodontal disease and other oral manifestations in HIV infected patients require more careful and extensive investigation. PMID:26392694

  14. Taenia solium porcine cysticercosis in Madagascar: Comparison of immuno-diagnostic techniques and estimation of the prevalence in pork carcasses traded in Antananarivo city.

    PubMed

    Porphyre, V; Betson, M; Rabezanahary, H; Mboussou, Y; Zafindraibe, N J; Rasamoelina-Andriamanivo, H; Costard, S; Pfeiffer, D U; Michault, A

    2016-03-30

    Taenia solium cysticercosis was reported in official veterinary and medical statistics to be highly prevalent in pigs and humans in Madagascar, but few estimates are available for pigs. This study aimed to estimate the seroprevalence of porcine cysticercosis among pigs slaughtered in Antananarivo abattoirs. Firstly, the diagnostic performance of two antigen-ELISA techniques (B158B60 Ag-ELISA and HP10 Ag-ELISA) and an immunoblotting method were compared with meat inspection procedures on a sample of pigs suspected to be infected with (group 1; n=250) or free of (group 2; n=250) T. solium based on direct veterinary inspection in Madagascar. Sensitivity and specificity of the antigen ELISAs were then estimated using a Bayesian approach for detection of porcine cysticercosis in the absence of a gold standard. Then, a third set of pig sera (group 3, n=250) was randomly collected in Antananarivo slaughterhouses and tested to estimate the overall prevalence of T. solium contamination in pork meat traded in Antananarivo. The antigen ELISAs showed a high sensitivity (>84%), but the B158B60 Ag-ELISA appeared to be more specific than the HP10 Ag-ELISA (model 1: 95% vs 74%; model 2: 87% vs 71%). The overall prevalence of porcine cysticercosis in Antananarivo slaughterhouses was estimated at 2.3% (95% credibility interval [95%CrI]: 0.09-9.1%) to 2.6% (95%CrI: 0.1-10.3%) depending on the model and priors used. Since the sample used in this study is not representative of the national pig population, village-based surveys and longitudinal monitoring at slaughter are needed to better estimate the overall prevalence, geographical patterns and main risk factors for T. solium contamination, in order to improve control policies.

  15. Factors affecting the efficiency of some estimators of fluvial total phosphorus load

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Young, Thomas C.; Depinto, Joseph V.; Heidtke, Thomas M.

    1988-09-01

    The accuracy of estimating total phosphorus (TP) loads to receiving waters usually is constrained by availability of concentration data, as discharge (flow) data normally are comparatively abundant. Using 4 years of daily observations from three tributaries to the Great Lakes (Grand, Saginaw, and Sandusky Rivers), annual TP loads were tested for accuracy by five methods, including regression, ratio, and robust estimators. Monte Carlo methods were employed to simulate replicated flow-stratified sampling of the datasets with various allocations of samples to flow strata. Each of the load calculation methods was applied to each group of simulated samples, and response was quantitated as load estimation error (computed minus "true" load). The results show the most consistently accurate estimator was Beale's stratified ratio estimator. It was, however, the only stratified estimator tested and should have been more accurate. Most accurate of the unstratified estimators was a straightforward least squares regression (log-log) method. The response of estimation bias to flow cut point and sample allocation manipulations indicated (1) beneficial results generally (but not always) obtained from high flow weighting of sampling and (2) postsampling stratification generally may yield improved accuracy for load estimation and deserves additional research.

  16. Significant Low Prevalence of Antibodies Reacting with Simian Virus 40 Mimotopes in Serum Samples from Patients Affected by Inflammatory Neurologic Diseases, Including Multiple Sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Mazzoni, Elisa; Pietrobon, Silvia; Masini, Irene; Rotondo, John Charles; Gentile, Mauro; Fainardi, Enrico; Casetta, Ilaria; Castellazzi, Massimiliano; Granieri, Enrico; Caniati, Maria Luisa; Tola, Maria Rosaria; Guerra, Giovanni; Martini, Fernanda; Tognon, Mauro

    2014-01-01

    Many investigations were carried out on the association between viruses and multiple sclerosis (MS). Indeed, early studies reported the detections of neurotropic virus footprints in the CNS of patients with MS. In this study, sera from patients affected by MS, other inflammatory (OIND) and non-inflammatory neurologic diseases (NIND) were analyzed for antibodies against the polyomavirus, Simian Virus 40 (SV40). An indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), with two synthetic peptides, which mimic SV40 antigens, was employed to detect specific antibodies in sera from patients affected by MS, OIND, NIND and healthy subjects (HS). Immunologic data indicate that in sera from MS patients antibodies against SV40 mimotopes are detectable with a low prevalence, 6%, whereas in HS of the same mean age, 40 yrs, the prevalence was 22%. The difference is statistically significant (P = 0.001). Significant is also the difference between MS vs. NIND patients (6% vs. 17%; P = 0.0254), whereas no significant difference was detected between MS vs OIND (6% vs 10%; P>0.05). The prevalence of SV40 antibodies in MS patients is 70% lower than that revealed in HS. PMID:25365364

  17. An estimation of the prevalence of intellectual disabilities and its association with age in rural and urban populations in India

    PubMed Central

    Lakhan, Ram; Ekúndayò, Olúgbémiga T.; Shahbazi, Mohammad

    2015-01-01

    Background: Intellectual disability (ID) is a global public health concern. Prevalence of ID and its association with age and other demographic factors is required for planning purposes in India. Objective: This study analyzed the age-adjusted prevalence of ID in rural and urban populations and its correlation with age in children and adults. Materials and Methods: Disability data published in the report (2002) of National Sample Survey Organization were analyzed, using Z-test to measure differences in age-adjusted prevalence. Spearman rho was calculated to determine strength and direction of the association, and regression analysis was used to predict prevalence rate, based on age in rural and urban population settings. Results: Overall, India has a prevalence of 10.5/1000 in ID. Urban population has slightly higher rate (11/1000) than rural (10.08/1000; P = 0.044). Age was found to be highly correlated with prevalence of ID in rural children (ϱ =0.981, P = 0.019) as well as in children (ϱ = −0.954, P = 0.000) and adults (ϱ = −0.957, P = 0.000) in urban population. The possibility of confounding or the existence of covariates for children in urban settings was noted. Conclusion: Results of this study match findings in other epidemiological studies. However, multistage, large-scale studies are recommended for investigating prevalence rates with different severity levels of ID. PMID:26752897

  18. Landscape and meteorological factors affecting prevalence of three food-borne pathogens in fruit and vegetable farms.

    PubMed

    Strawn, Laura K; Fortes, Esther D; Bihn, Elizabeth A; Nightingale, Kendra K; Gröhn, Yrjö T; Worobo, Randy W; Wiedmann, Martin; Bergholz, Peter W

    2013-01-01

    Produce-related outbreaks have been traced back to the preharvest environment. A longitudinal study was conducted on five farms in New York State to characterize the prevalence, persistence, and diversity of food-borne pathogens in fresh produce fields and to determine landscape and meteorological factors that predict their presence. Produce fields were sampled four times per year for 2 years. A total of 588 samples were analyzed for Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella, and Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC). The prevalence measures of L. monocytogenes, Salmonella, and STEC were 15.0, 4.6, and 2.7%, respectively. L. monocytogenes and Salmonella were detected more frequently in water samples, while STEC was detected with equal frequency across all sample types (soil, water, feces, and drag swabs). L. monocytogenes sigB gene allelic types 57, 58, and 61 and Salmonella enterica serovar Cerro were repeatedly isolated from water samples. Soil available water storage (AWS), temperature, and proximity to three land cover classes (water, roads and urban development, and pasture/hay grass) influenced the likelihood of detecting L. monocytogenes. Drainage class, AWS, and precipitation were identified as important factors in Salmonella detection. This information was used in a geographic information system framework to hypothesize locations of environmental reservoirs where the prevalence of food-borne pathogens may be elevated. The map indicated that not all croplands are equally likely to contain environmental reservoirs of L. monocytogenes. These findings advance recommendations to minimize the risk of preharvest contamination by enhancing models of the environmental constraints on the survival and persistence of food-borne pathogens in fields.

  19. Is the prevalence of youth smoking affected by efforts to increase retailer compliance with a minors' access law?

    PubMed

    Cummings, K Michael; Hyland, Andrew; Perla, Jeanne; Giovino, Gary A

    2003-08-01

    This study correlated measures of youth smoking behavior with community-level indicators of retailer compliance with a minors' tobacco access law. The study was carried out between 1992 and 1996 in 12 communities in Erie County, New York. Retailer compliance was assessed by having adolescents attempt to purchase tobacco products in licensed tobacco-selling outlets in fall 1994 and fall 1995 after implementation of an aggressive enforcement program. Communities were grouped in two ways: (a) those that did or did not increase retailer compliance rates by 200% or more between 1994 and 1995 and (b) those that did or did not achieve an 80% retailer compliance rate in 1995. School-based surveys conducted in 1992 and 1996 assessed the tobacco use behaviors of ninth-grade public school students. Between 1994 and 1995, retailer compliance increased in all 12 communities by an average of 155%. In 1995, six of the 12 communities achieved retailer compliance rates in excess of 80%. Indicators of youth smoking behavior did not vary significantly between communities that increased their retailer compliance rates by more or less than 200%. The prevalence of past 30-day smoking remained stable between 1992 and 1996 in the six communities that achieved a retailer compliance rate of at least 80% and increased slightly in the remaining communities. The prevalence of frequent smoking decreased between 1992 and 1996 in the communities that achieved a retailer compliance rate of at least 80% and increased slightly in the six communities that failed to achieve this rate. Achieving a high rate of retailer compliance with a minors' access law appears to have caused youths to rely more on noncommercial sources of cigarettes and may have had a small effect on adolescent smoking prevalence, especially frequent smoking.

  20. Landscape and Meteorological Factors Affecting Prevalence of Three Food-Borne Pathogens in Fruit and Vegetable Farms

    PubMed Central

    Strawn, Laura K.; Fortes, Esther D.; Bihn, Elizabeth A.; Nightingale, Kendra K.; Gröhn, Yrjö T.; Worobo, Randy W.; Wiedmann, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Produce-related outbreaks have been traced back to the preharvest environment. A longitudinal study was conducted on five farms in New York State to characterize the prevalence, persistence, and diversity of food-borne pathogens in fresh produce fields and to determine landscape and meteorological factors that predict their presence. Produce fields were sampled four times per year for 2 years. A total of 588 samples were analyzed for Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella, and Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC). The prevalence measures of L. monocytogenes, Salmonella, and STEC were 15.0, 4.6, and 2.7%, respectively. L. monocytogenes and Salmonella were detected more frequently in water samples, while STEC was detected with equal frequency across all sample types (soil, water, feces, and drag swabs). L. monocytogenes sigB gene allelic types 57, 58, and 61 and Salmonella enterica serovar Cerro were repeatedly isolated from water samples. Soil available water storage (AWS), temperature, and proximity to three land cover classes (water, roads and urban development, and pasture/hay grass) influenced the likelihood of detecting L. monocytogenes. Drainage class, AWS, and precipitation were identified as important factors in Salmonella detection. This information was used in a geographic information system framework to hypothesize locations of environmental reservoirs where the prevalence of food-borne pathogens may be elevated. The map indicated that not all croplands are equally likely to contain environmental reservoirs of L. monocytogenes. These findings advance recommendations to minimize the risk of preharvest contamination by enhancing models of the environmental constraints on the survival and persistence of food-borne pathogens in fields. PMID:23144137

  1. A systematic review of hereditary spherocytosis reported in Chinese biomedical journals from 1978 to 2013 and estimation of the prevalence of the disease using a disease model.

    PubMed

    Wang, Chao; Cui, Yazhou; Li, Yan; Liu, Xiao; Han, Jinxiang

    2015-05-01

    Epidemiological information of hereditary spherocytosis in China is slight. This systematic review summarizes the number of cases of hereditary spherocytosis reported in China Biology Medicine disc from 1978 to 2013. In total, 2,043 cases were reported in the past 36 years. We describe its distribution from time and space. We also estimate the literature reported prevalence of hereditary spherocytosis by DisMod-II software, overall prevalence in China was estimated to be: 1.27 cases per 100,000 people in males and 1.49 cases per 100,000 people in females. All results suggest a stronger network of diagnosis and treatment including all levels of hospitals should be created to improve healthcare for hereditary spherocytosis and even other rare diseases in the future, meanwhile we can obtain more useful information for orphan drug designation purposes and make public health decisions regarding such diseases through the use of the burden of disease models.

  2. Variations in Substance Use Prevalence Estimates and Need for Interventions among Adult Emergency Department Patients Based on Different Screening Strategies Using the ASSIST

    PubMed Central

    Merchant, Roland C.; Liu, Tao; Baird, Janette R.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Among adult emergency department (ED) patients, we sought to examine how estimates of substance use prevalence and the need for interventions can differ, based on the type of screening and assessment strategies employed. Methods We estimated the prevalence of substance use and the need for interventions using the Alcohol, Smoking and Substance Involvement Screening Test (ASSIST) in a secondary analysis of data from two cross-sectional studies using random samples of English- or Spanish-speaking 18–64-year-old ED patients. In addition, the test performance characteristics of three simplified screening strategies consisting of selected questions from the ASSIST (lifetime use, past three-month use, and past three-month frequency of use) to identify patients in need of a possible intervention were compared against using the full ASSIST. Results Of 6,432 adult ED patients, the median age was 37 years-old, 56.6% were female, and 61.6% were white. Estimated substance use prevalence among this population differed by how it was measured (lifetime use, past three-month use, past three-month frequency of use, or need for interventions). As compared to using the full ASSIST, the predictive value and accuracy to identify patients in need of any intervention was best for a simplified strategy asking about past three-month substance use. A strategy asking about daily/near-daily use was better in identifying patients needing intensive interventions. However, some patients needing interventions were missed when using these simplified strategies. Conclusion Substance use prevalence estimates and identification of ED patients needing interventions differ by screening strategies used. EDs should carefully select strategies to identify patients in need of substance use interventions. PMID:27330663

  3. Use of an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in bulk milk to estimate the prevalence of Neospora caninum on dairy farms in Prince Edward Island, Canada

    PubMed Central

    Wapenaar, Wendela; Barkema, Herman W.; O’Handley, Ryan M.; Bartels, Chris J.M.

    2007-01-01

    This study evaluated the use of bulk milk as a diagnostic tool for estimation of herd-level Neospora caninum exposure in Atlantic Canada; it was used to estimate the prevalence of dairy farms with a within-herd N. caninum-seroprevalence ≥ 15% in Prince Edward Island (PEI). The variation over time of N. caninum antibodies in bulk milk is also reported. Skimmed bulk milk and individual serum samples were analyzed for N. caninum antibodies by using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Bulk milk samples were collected in May 2004 (n = 235), May 2005 (n = 189), and June 2005 (n = 235). The prevalence of dairy farms with a within-herd seroprevalence ≥ 15% on PEI was 6.4% in May 2004. In May and June 2005, respectively, 10.1% and 10.2% of farms had a ≥ 15% within-herd seroprevalence. In 11 farms that were considered positive based on bulk milk samples, blood samples were collected from all adult cows in September 2005, in conjunction with a 4th bulk milk sample on the same day. The correlation coefficient between serology and bulk milk ELISA was 0.87. The results of this study demonstrate that the prevalence of N. caninum in dairy farms can be estimated by using a bulk milk ELISA. PMID:17542367

  4. Increasing autism prevalence in metropolitan New Jersey.

    PubMed

    Zahorodny, Walter; Shenouda, Josephine; Howell, Sandra; Rosato, Nancy Scotto; Peng, Bo; Mehta, Uday

    2014-02-01

    High baseline autism spectrum disorder prevalence estimates in New Jersey led to a follow-up surveillance. The objectives were to determine autism spectrum disorder prevalence in the year 2006 in New Jersey and to identify changes in the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder or in the characteristics of the children with autism spectrum disorder, between 2002 and 2006. The cohorts included 30,570 children, born in 1998 and 28,936 children, born in 1994, residing in Hudson, Union, and Ocean counties, New Jersey. Point prevalence estimates by sex, ethnicity, autism spectrum disorder subtype, and previous autism spectrum disorder diagnosis were determined. For 2006, a total of 533 children with autism spectrum disorder were identified, consistent with prevalence of 17.4 per 1000 (95% confidence interval = 15.9-18.9), indicating a significant increase in the autism spectrum disorder prevalence (p < 0.001), between 2002 (10.6 per 1000) and 2006. The rise in autism spectrum disorder was broad, affecting major demographic groups and subtypes. Boys with autism spectrum disorder outnumbered girls by nearly 5:1. Autism spectrum disorder prevalence was higher among White children than children of other ethnicities. Additional studies are needed to specify the influence of better awareness of autism spectrum disorder prevalence estimates and to identify possible autism spectrum disorder risk factors. More resources are necessary to address the needs of individuals affected by autism spectrum disorder.

  5. Estimated Prevalence of Cryptococcus Antigenemia (CrAg) among HIV-Infected Adults with Advanced Immunosuppression in Namibia Justifies Routine Screening and Preemptive Treatment

    PubMed Central

    Makumbi, Boniface; Purfield, Anne; Ndjavera, Christophine; Mutandi, Gram; Maher, Andrew; Kaindjee-Tjituka, Francina; Kaplan, Jonathan E.; Park, Benjamin J.; Lowrance, David W.

    2016-01-01

    Background Cryptococcal meningitis is common and associated with high mortality among HIV infected persons. The World Health Organization recommends that routine Cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) screening in ART-naïve adults with a CD4+ count <100 cells/μL followed by pre-emptive antifungal therapy for CrAg-positive patients be considered where CrAg prevalence is ≥3%. The prevalence of CrAg among HIV adults in Namibia is unknown. We estimated CrAg prevalence among HIV-infected adults receiving care in Namibia for the purpose of informing routine screening strategies. Methods The study design was cross-sectional. De-identified plasma specimens collected for routine CD4+ testing from HIV-infected adults enrolled in HIV care at 181 public health facilities from November 2013 to January 2014 were identified at the national reference laboratory. Remnant plasma from specimens with CD4+ counts <200 cells/μL were sampled and tested for CrAg using the IMMY® Lateral Flow Assay. CrAg prevalence was estimated and assessed for associations with age, sex, and CD4+ count. Results A total of 825 specimens were tested for CrAg. The median (IQR) age of patients from whom specimens were collected was 38 (32–46) years, 45.9% were female and 62.9% of the specimens had CD4 <100 cells/μL. CrAg prevalence was 3.3% overall and 3.9% and 2.3% among samples with CD4+ counts of CD4+<100 cells/μL and 100–200 cells/μL, respectively. CrAg positivity was significantly higher among patients with CD4+ cells/μL < 50 (7.2%, P = 0.001) relative to those with CD4 cells/μL 50–200 (2.2%). Conclusion This is the first study to estimate CrAg prevalence among HIV-infected patients in Namibia. CrAg prevalence of ≥3.0% among patients with CD4+<100 cells/μL justifies routine CrAg screening and preemptive treatment among HIV-infected in Namibia in line with WHO recommendations. Patients with CD4+<100 cells/μL have a significantly greater risk for CrAg positivity. Revised guidelines for ART in

  6. Bacillus cereus and Bacillus thuringiensis spores in Korean rice: prevalence and toxin production as affected by production area and degree of milling.

    PubMed

    Kim, Booyoung; Bang, Jihyun; Kim, Hoikyung; Kim, Yoonsook; Kim, Byeong-Sam; Beuchat, Larry R; Ryu, Jee-Hoon

    2014-09-01

    We determined the prevalence of and toxin production by Bacillus cereus and Bacillus thuringiensis in Korean rice as affected by production area and degree of milling. Rough rice was collected from 64 farms in 22 agricultural areas and polished to produce brown and white rice. In total, rice samples were broadly contaminated with B. cereus spores, with no effect of production area. The prevalence and counts of B. cereus spores declined as milling progressed. Frequencies of hemolysin BL (HBL) production by isolates were significantly (P ≤ 0.01) reduced as milling progressed. This pattern corresponded with the presence of genes encoding the diarrheal enterotoxins. The frequency of B. cereus isolates positive for hblC, hblD, or nheB genes decreased as milling progressed. Because most B. cereus isolates from rice samples contained six enterotoxin genes, we concluded that B. cereus in rice produced in Korea is predominantly of the diarrheagenic type. The prevalence of B. thuringiensis in rice was significantly lower than that of B. cereus and not correlated with production area. All B. thuringiensis isolates were of the diarrheagenic type. This study provides information useful for predicting safety risks associated with B. cereus and B. thuringiensis in rough and processed Korean rice.

  7. A survey of children affected by ectomermal dysplasia syndromes shows an increased prevalence of atopic disorders and immune deficiency

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Ectodermal dysplasia (ED) syndromes are rare genetic disorders that affect the development of tissues derived from the embryonic ectoderm. Studies and anecdotal experience have indicated that atopic disorders (AD) and immune deficiencies (ID) may be associated with ED in children. Some ED genotypes ...

  8. Experimental factors affecting PCR-based estimates of microbial species richness and evenness

    SciTech Connect

    Engelbrektson, Anna; Kunin, Victor; Wrighton, Kelly C.; Zvenigorodsky, Natasha; Chen, Feng; Ochman, Howard; Hugenholtz, Philip

    2009-12-01

    Pyrosequencing of 16S rRNA gene amplicons for microbial community profiling can, for equivalent costs, yield greater than two orders of magnitude more sensitivity than traditional PCR-cloning and Sanger sequencing. With this increased sensitivity and the ability to analyze multiple samples in parallel, it has become possible to evaluate several technical aspects of PCRbased community structure profiling methods. We tested the effect of amplicon length and primer pair on estimates of species richness number of species and evenness relative abundance of species by assessing the potentially tractable microbial community residing in the termite hindgut. Two regions of the 16S rRNA gene were sequenced from one of two common priming sites, spanning the V1-V2 or V8 regions, using amplicons ranging n length from 352 to 1443 bp. Our results demonstrate that both amplicon length and primer pair markedly influence estimates of richness and evenness. However, estimates of species evenness are consistent among different primer pairs targeting the same region. These results highlight the importance of experimental methodology when comparing diversity estimates across communities.

  9. How over 100 years of climate variability may affect estimates of potential evaporation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartholomeus, R. P.; Stagge, J. H.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Witte, J. P. M.

    2014-09-01

    Hydrological modeling frameworks require an accurate representation of evaporation fluxes for appropriate quantification of e.g. the soil moisture budget, droughts, recharge and groundwater processes. Many frameworks have used the concept of potential evaporation, often estimated for different vegetation classes by multiplying the evaporation from a reference surface ("reference evaporation") with crop specific scaling factors ("crop factors"). Though this two-step potential evaporation approach undoubtedly has practical advantages, the empirical nature of both reference evaporation methods and crop factors limits its usability in extrapolations and non-stationary climatic conditions. In this paper we assess the sensitivity of potential evaporation estimates for different vegetation classes using the two-step approach when calibrated using a non-stationary climate. We used the past century's time series of observed climate, containing non-stationary signals of multi-decadal atmospheric oscillations, global warming, and global dimming/brightening, to evaluate the sensitivity of potential evaporation estimates to the choice and length of the calibration period. We show that using empirical coefficients outside their calibration range may lead to systematic differences between process-based and empirical reference evaporation methods, and systematic errors in estimated potential evaporation components. Such extrapolations of time-variant model parameters are not only relevant for the calculation of potential evaporation, but also for hydrological modeling in general, and they may limit the temporal robustness of hydrological models.

  10. Does the Level of Occupational Aggregation Affect Estimates of the Gender Wage Gap?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kidd, Michael P.; Shannon, Michael

    1996-01-01

    Using data from the 1989 Canadian Labour-Market Activity Survey, when occupation is treated as a productivity-related characteristic, gender wage gap estimates are distorted. Using a larger number of occupations, the occupational aggregation by gender reflects barriers women face in attempting to enter male-dominated occupations. (SK)

  11. Factors Affecting the Item Parameter Estimation and Classification Accuracy of the DINA Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    de la Torre, Jimmy; Hong, Yuan; Deng, Weiling

    2010-01-01

    To better understand the statistical properties of the deterministic inputs, noisy "and" gate cognitive diagnosis (DINA) model, the impact of several factors on the quality of the item parameter estimates and classification accuracy was investigated. Results of the simulation study indicate that the fully Bayes approach is most accurate when the…

  12. Experimental factors affecting PCR-based estimates of microbial species richness and evenness.

    PubMed

    Engelbrektson, Anna; Kunin, Victor; Wrighton, Kelly C; Zvenigorodsky, Natasha; Chen, Feng; Ochman, Howard; Hugenholtz, Philip

    2010-05-01

    Pyrosequencing of 16S rRNA gene amplicons for microbial community profiling can, for equivalent costs, yield more than two orders of magnitude more sensitivity than traditional PCR cloning and Sanger sequencing. With this increased sensitivity and the ability to analyze multiple samples in parallel, it has become possible to evaluate several technical aspects of PCR-based community structure profiling methods. We tested the effect of amplicon length and primer pair on estimates of species richness (number of species) and evenness (relative abundance of species) by assessing the potentially tractable microbial community residing in the termite hindgut. Two regions of the 16S rRNA gene were sequenced from one of two common priming sites, spanning the V1-V2 or V8 regions, using amplicons ranging in length from 352 to 1443 bp. Our results show that both amplicon length and primer pair markedly influence estimates of richness and evenness. However, estimates of species evenness are consistent among different primer pairs targeting the same region. These results highlight the importance of experimental methodology when comparing diversity estimates across communities.

  13. Estimation of Listeria monocytogenes and Escherichia coli O157:H7 prevalence and levels in naturally contaminated rocket and cucumber samples by deterministic and stochastic approaches.

    PubMed

    Hadjilouka, Agni; Mantzourani, Kyriaki-Sofia; Katsarou, Anastasia; Cavaiuolo, Marina; Ferrante, Antonio; Paramithiotis, Spiros; Mataragas, Marios; Drosinos, Eleftherios H

    2015-02-01

    The aims of the present study were to determine the prevalence and levels of Listeria monocytogenes and Escherichia coli O157:H7 in rocket and cucumber samples by deterministic (estimation of a single value) and stochastic (estimation of a range of values) approaches. In parallel, the chromogenic media commonly used for the recovery of these microorganisms were evaluated and compared, and the efficiency of an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA)-based protocol was validated. L. monocytogenes and E. coli O157:H7 were detected and enumerated using agar Listeria according to Ottaviani and Agosti plus RAPID' L. mono medium and Fluorocult plus sorbitol MacConkey medium with cefixime and tellurite in parallel, respectively. Identity was confirmed with biochemical and molecular tests and the ELISA. Performance indices of the media and the prevalence of both pathogens were estimated using Bayesian inference. In rocket, prevalence of both L. monocytogenes and E. coli O157:H7 was estimated at 7% (7 of 100 samples). In cucumber, prevalence was 6% (6 of 100 samples) and 3% (3 of 100 samples) for L. monocytogenes and E. coli O157:H7, respectively. The levels derived from the presence-absence data using Bayesian modeling were estimated at 0.12 CFU/25 g (0.06 to 0.20) and 0.09 CFU/25 g (0.04 to 0.170) for L. monocytogenes in rocket and cucumber samples, respectively. The corresponding values for E. coli O157:H7 were 0.59 CFU/25 g (0.43 to 0.78) and 1.78 CFU/25 g (1.38 to 2.24), respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the culture media differed for rocket and cucumber samples. The ELISA technique had a high level of cross-reactivity. Parallel testing with at least two culture media was required to achieve a reliable result for L. monocytogenes or E. coli O157:H7 prevalence in rocket and cucumber samples.

  14. Means of confusion: how pixel noise affects shear estimates for weak gravitational lensing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melchior, P.; Viola, M.

    2012-08-01

    Weak-lensing shear estimates show a troublesome dependence on the apparent brightness of the galaxies used to measure the ellipticity: in several studies, the amplitude of the inferred shear falls sharply with decreasing source significance. This dependence limits the overall ability of upcoming large weak-lensing surveys to constrain cosmological parameters. We seek to provide a concise overview of the impact of pixel noise on weak-lensing measurements, covering the entire path from noisy images to shear estimates. We show that there are at least three distinct layers, where pixel noise not only obscures but also biases the outcome of the measurements: (1) the propagation of pixel noise to the non-linear observable ellipticity; (2) the response of the shape-measurement methods to limited amount of information extractable from noisy images and (3) the reaction of shear estimation statistics to the presence of noise and outliers in the measured ellipticities. We identify and discuss several fundamental problems and show that each of them is able to introduce biases in the range of a few tens to a few per cent for galaxies with typical significance levels. Furthermore, all of these biases do not only depend on the brightness of galaxies but also depend on their ellipticity, with more elliptical galaxies often being harder to measure correctly. We also discuss existing possibilities to mitigate and novel ideas to avoid the biases induced by pixel noise. We present a new shear estimator that shows a more robust performance for noisy ellipticity samples. Finally, we release the open-source PYTHON code to predict and efficiently sample from the noisy ellipticity distribution and the shear estimators used in this work at https://github.com/pmelchior/epsnoise.

  15. Estimated Prevalence of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder in a Sample of Panamanian School-Aged Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sanchez, Emelyn Y.; Velarde, Silvia; Britton, Gabrielle B.

    2011-01-01

    The present study investigated the prevalence of ADHD in a school sample of children ages 6-11 years in the city of Panama. The assessment battery included the Conners' Parent and Teacher Rating Scales, the Structured Developmental History of the Behavioral Assessment System for Children (BASC-2), and the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children…

  16. Demography of forest birds in Panama: How do transients affect estimates of survival rates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brawn, J.D.; Karr, J.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Robinson, W.D.; Adams, N.J.; Slotow, R.H.

    1999-01-01

    Estimates of annual survival rates of neotropical birds have proven controversial. Traditionally, tropical birds were thought to have high survival rates for their size, but analyses of a multispecies assemblage from Panama by Karr et al. (1990) provided a counterexample to that view. One criticism of that study has been that the estimates were biased by transient birds captured only once as they passed through the area being sampled. New models that formally adjust for transient individuals have been developed since 1990. Preliminary analyses indicate that these models are indeed useful in modelling the data from Panama. Nonetheless, there is considerable interspecific variation and overall estimates of annual survival rates for understorey birds in Panama remain lower than those from other studies in the Neotropics and well below the rates long assumed for tropical birds (i.e. > 0.80). Therefore, tropical birds may not have systematically higher survival rates than temperate-zone species. Variation in survival rates among tropical species suggests that theory based on a simple tradeoff between clutch size and longevity is inadequate. The demographic traits of birds in the tropics (and elsewhere) vary within and among species according to some combination of historical and ongoing ecological factors. Understanding these processes is the challenge for future work.

  17. Long-term survival, prevalence, and cure of cancer: a population-based estimation for 818 902 Italian patients and 26 cancer types

    PubMed Central

    Dal Maso, L.; Guzzinati, S.; Buzzoni, C.; Capocaccia, R.; Serraino, D.; Caldarella, A.; Dei Tos, A. P.; Falcini, F.; Autelitano, M.; Masanotti, G.; Ferretti, S.; Tisano, F.; Tirelli, U.; Crocetti, E.; De Angelis, R.; Virdone, S.; Zucchetto, A.; Gigli, A.; Francisci, S.; Baili, P.; Gatta, G.; Castaing, M.; Zanetti, R.; Contiero, P.; Bidoli, E.; Vercelli, M.; Michiara, M.; Federico, M.; Senatore, G.; Pannozzo, F.; Vicentini, M.; Bulatko, A.; Pirino, D. R.; Gentilini, M.; Fusco, M.; Giacomin, A.; Fanetti, A. C.; Cusimano, R.

    2014-01-01

    Background Persons living after a cancer diagnosis represent 4% of the whole population in high-income countries. The aim of the study was to provide estimates of indicators of long-term survival and cure for 26 cancer types, presently lacking. Patients and methods Data on 818 902 Italian cancer patients diagnosed at age 15–74 years in 1985–2005 were included. Proportions of patients with the same death rates of the general population (cure fractions) and those of prevalent patients who were not at risk of dying as a result of cancer (cure prevalence) were calculated, using validated mixture cure models, by cancer type, sex, and age group. We also estimated complete prevalence, conditional relative survival (CRS), time to reach 5- and 10-year CRS >95%, and proportion of patients living longer than those thresholds. Results The cure fractions ranged from >90% for patients aged <45 years with thyroid and testis cancers to <10% for liver and pancreatic cancers of all ages. Five- or 10-year CRS >95% were both reached in <10 years by patients with cancers of the stomach, colon–rectum, pancreas, corpus and cervix uteri, brain, and Hodgkin lymphoma. For breast cancer patients, 5- and 10-year CRSs reached >95% after 19 and 25 years, respectively, and in 15 and 18 years for prostate cancer patients. Five-year CRS remained <95% for >25 years after cancer diagnosis in patients with liver and larynx cancers, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, myeloma, and leukaemia. Overall, the cure prevalence was 67% for men and 77% for women. Therefore, 21% of male and 31% of female patients had already reached 5-year CRS >95%, whereas 18% and 25% had reached 10-year CRS >95%. Conclusions A quarter of Italian cancer patients can be considered cured. This observation has a high potential impact on health planning, clinical practice, and patients' perspective. PMID:25149707

  18. Estimated prevalence of the Type 1 Polysaccharide Storage Myopathy mutation in selected North American and European breeds.

    PubMed

    McCue, M E; Anderson, S M; Valberg, S J; Piercy, R J; Barakzai, S Z; Binns, M M; Distl, O; Penedo, M C T; Wagner, M L; Mickelson, J R

    2010-12-01

    The GYS1 gene mutation that is causative of Type 1 Polysaccharide Storage Myopathy (PSSM) has been identified in more than 20 breeds of horses. However, the GYS1 mutation frequency or Type 1 PSSM prevalence within any given breed is unknown. The purpose of this study was to determine the frequency of the GYS1 mutation and prevalence of genetic susceptibility to Type 1 PSSM in selected breeds from Europe and North America. The GYS1 mutation was detected in 11 breeds, including, in order of increasing allele frequency, Shires, Morgans, Appaloosas, Quarter Horses, Paints, Exmoor Ponies, Saxon-Thuringian Coldbloods, South German Coldbloods, Belgians, Rhenish German Coldbloods and Percherons. The prevalence of genetic susceptibility to Type 1 PSSM in these breeds varied from 0.5% to 62.4%. The GYS1 mutation was not found in the sampled Thoroughbreds, Akhal-Tekes, Connemaras, Clydesdales, Norwegian Fjords, Welsh Ponies, Icelandics, Schleswig Coldbloods or Hanoverians, but failure to detect the mutation does not guarantee its absence. This knowledge will help breed associations determine whether they should screen for the GYS1 mutation and will alert veterinarians to a possible differential diagnosis for muscle pain, rhabdomyolysis or gait abnormalities.

  19. Does the differential photodissociation and chemical fractionation reaction of 13CO affect the column density estimates?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szücs, László; Glover, Simon

    2013-07-01

    Carbon monoxide (CO) and its isotopes are frequently used as a tracer of column density in studies of the dense interstellar medium. The most abundant CO isotope, 12CO, is usually optically thick in intermediate and high density regions and so provides only a lower limit for the column density. In these regions, less abundant isotopes are used, such as 13CO. To relate observations of 13CO to the 12CO column density, a constant 12CO/13CO isotopic ratio is often adopted. In this work, we examine the impact of two effects -- selective photodissociation of 13CO and chemical fractionation -- on the 12CO/13CO isotopic ratio, with the aid of numerical simulations. Our simulations follow the coupled chemical, thermal and dynamical evolution of isolated molecular clouds in several different environments. We post-process our simulation results with line radiative transfer and produce maps of the emergent 13CO emission. We compare emission maps produced assuming a constant isotopic ratio with ones produced using the results from a more self-consistent calculation, and also compare the column density maps derived from the emission maps. We find that at low and high column densities, the column density estimates that we obtain with the approximation of constant isotopic ratio agree well with those derived from the self-consistent model. At intermediate column densities, 10^12 cm^-2 < N(13CO)< 10^15 cm^-2, the approximate model under-predicts the column density by a factor of a few, but we show that we can correct for this, and hence obtain accurate column density estimates, via application of a simple correction factor.

  20. Estimating the net effect of HIV on child mortality in African populations affected by generalized HIV epidemics.

    PubMed

    Marston, Milly; Zaba, Basia; Salomon, Joshua A; Brahmbhatt, Heena; Bagenda, Danstan

    2005-02-01

    For a given prevalence, HIV has a relatively higher impact on child mortality when mortality from other causes is low. To project the effect of the epidemic on child mortality, it is necessary to estimate a realistic schedule of "net" age-specific mortality rates that would operate if HIV were the only cause of child death observable. We assume that this net pattern would be independent of mortality from other causes. We used African studies that measured the survival of HIV-infected children (direct data) or survival of children of HIV-infected mothers (indirect data). We developed a mathematic procedure to estimate the mortality of infected children from indirect data sources and obtained net HIV mortality patterns for each study population. The net age-specific HIV mortality pattern for infected children can be described by a double Weibull curve fitted to empiric data; this gives a functional representation of age-specific mortality rates that decline after infancy and rise in the preteens. The fitted curve that we would expect if HIV were the only effective cause of death shows 67% net survival at 1 year and 39% at 5 years. The curve also predicts 13% net survival at 10 years using constraints based on survival of infected adults.

  1. Socio-economic and behavioural factors affecting the prevalence of Ascaris infection in a low-country tea plantation in Sri Lanka.

    PubMed

    Gunawardena, G S A; Karunaweera, N D; Ismail, M M

    2004-09-01

    The identification of the factors that affect the prevalences of geohelminthiases should help to maximize the effectiveness of programmes for the control of these diseases. In the present study, the relationships between the prevalence and intensity of human infection with Ascaris and the availability of sanitary facilities, socio-economic status and personal health habits have been explored in Sri Lanka. The 176 subjects, who lived on a low-country tea plantation, were aged 2-50 years (median = 13 years) and were investigated between the July and December of 2000. When the prevalence and intensity of Ascaris infection were determined, using Kato-Katz smears, 50.0% of the subjects were found to be secreting the eggs of the parasite. Almost all (96.6%) of the subjects lived in terraces of one-room houses built by the plantation owners, and only 30.7% had access to a latrine. Most (90.3%) obtained their drinking water from common taps, and 48.8% boiled their drinking water. The subjects who only drank water that had been boiled and those who washed their hands before meals were relatively unlikely to be infected (P < 0.05 for each). In congested living conditions with poor sanitary facilities, the level of faecal contamination of the environment is invariably high. Even under these conditions, however, good hygiene and the boiling of all drinking water can reduce the risks of Ascaris infection. In the study setting and in similar environments, regular anthelmintic therapy, improvements in housing conditions and sanitary facilities, and health education, to promote risk-reducing patterns of behaviour, would all be beneficial.

  2. Lagrangian methods for blood damage estimation in cardiovascular devices--How numerical implementation affects the results.

    PubMed

    Marom, Gil; Bluestein, Danny

    2016-01-01

    This paper evaluated the influence of various numerical implementation assumptions on predicting blood damage in cardiovascular devices using Lagrangian methods with Eulerian computational fluid dynamics. The implementation assumptions that were tested included various seeding patterns, stochastic walk model, and simplified trajectory calculations with pathlines. Post processing implementation options that were evaluated included single passage and repeated passages stress accumulation and time averaging. This study demonstrated that the implementation assumptions can significantly affect the resulting stress accumulation, i.e., the blood damage model predictions. Careful considerations should be taken in the use of Lagrangian models. Ultimately, the appropriate assumptions should be considered based the physics of the specific case and sensitivity analysis, similar to the ones presented here, should be employed.

  3. Lagrangian methods for blood damage estimation in cardiovascular devices - How numerical implementation affects the results

    PubMed Central

    Marom, Gil; Bluestein, Danny

    2016-01-01

    Summary This paper evaluated the influence of various numerical implementation assumptions on predicting blood damage in cardiovascular devices using Lagrangian methods with Eulerian computational fluid dynamics. The implementation assumptions that were tested included various seeding patterns, stochastic walk model, and simplified trajectory calculations with pathlines. Post processing implementation options that were evaluated included single passage and repeated passages stress accumulation and time averaging. This study demonstrated that the implementation assumptions can significantly affect the resulting stress accumulation, i.e., the blood damage model predictions. Careful considerations should be taken in the use of Lagrangian models. Ultimately, the appropriate assumptions should be considered based the physics of the specific case and sensitivity analysis, similar to the ones presented here, should be employed. PMID:26679833

  4. Estimating Minimum Adult HIV Prevalence: A Cross-Sectional Study to Assess the Characteristics of People Living with HIV in Italy

    PubMed Central

    Raimondo, Mariangela; Dorrucci, Maria; Regine, Vincenza; Salfa, Maria Cristina; Suligoi, Barbara

    2015-01-01

    Abstract In 2012, we conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study to assess the number of people living with HIV linked to care and, among these, the number of people on antiretroviral therapy. The health authority in each of the 20 Italian Regions provided the list of Public Infectious Diseases Clinics providing antiretroviral therapy and monitoring people with HIV infection. We asked every Public Infectious Diseases Clinic to report the number of HIV-positive people diagnosed and linked to care and the number of those on antiretroviral therapy during 2012. In 2012, 94,146 people diagnosed with HIV and linked to care were reported. The majority were males (70.1%), Italians (84.4%), and aged between 25 and 49 years (63.4%); the probable route of transmission was heterosexual contact in 37.5% of cases, injecting drug use in 28.1%, and male-to-male contact in 27.9%. Among people in care, 20.1% had less than 350 CD4 cells/μl, 87.6% received antiretroviral therapy, and among these, 62.4% had a CD4 cell count higher than 350 cells/μl. The overall estimated prevalence of individuals diagnosed and linked to care in 2012 in Italy was 0.16 per 100 residents (all ages). Adding the estimated proportion of undiagnosed people, the estimated HIV prevalence would range between 0.19 and 0.26 per 100 residents. In Italy, the majority of people diagnosed and linked to care receive antiretroviral therapy. A higher prevalence of individuals diagnosed and linked to care was observed in Northern Italy and among males. More information for developing the HIV care continuum is necessary to improve the entire engagement in care, focusing on test-and-treat strategies to substantially reduce the proportion of people still undiagnosed or with a detectable viral load. PMID:25432098

  5. High prevalence of mutations affecting the splicing process in a Spanish cohort with autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa

    PubMed Central

    Ezquerra-Inchausti, Maitane; Barandika, Olatz; Anasagasti, Ander; Irigoyen, Cristina; López de Munain, Adolfo; Ruiz-Ederra, Javier

    2017-01-01

    Retinitis pigmentosa is the most frequent group of inherited retinal dystrophies. It is highly heterogeneous, with more than 80 disease-causing genes 27 of which are known to cause autosomal dominant RP (adRP), having been identified. In this study a total of 29 index cases were ascertained based on a family tree compatible with adRP. A custom panel of 31 adRP genes was analysed by targeted next-generation sequencing using the Ion PGM platform in combination with Sanger sequencing. This allowed us to detect putative disease-causing mutations in 14 out of the 29 (48.28%) families analysed. Remarkably, around 38% of all adRP cases analysed showed mutations affecting the splicing process, mainly due to mutations in genes coding for spliceosome factors (SNRNP200 and PRPF8) but also due to splice-site mutations in RHO. Twelve of the 14 mutations found had been reported previously and two were novel mutations found in PRPF8 in two unrelated patients. In conclusion, our results will lead to more accurate genetic counselling and will contribute to a better characterisation of the disease. In addition, they may have a therapeutic impact in the future given the large number of studies currently underway based on targeted RNA splicing for therapeutic purposes. PMID:28045043

  6. High prevalence of mutations affecting the splicing process in a Spanish cohort with autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa.

    PubMed

    Ezquerra-Inchausti, Maitane; Barandika, Olatz; Anasagasti, Ander; Irigoyen, Cristina; López de Munain, Adolfo; Ruiz-Ederra, Javier

    2017-01-03

    Retinitis pigmentosa is the most frequent group of inherited retinal dystrophies. It is highly heterogeneous, with more than 80 disease-causing genes 27 of which are known to cause autosomal dominant RP (adRP), having been identified. In this study a total of 29 index cases were ascertained based on a family tree compatible with adRP. A custom panel of 31 adRP genes was analysed by targeted next-generation sequencing using the Ion PGM platform in combination with Sanger sequencing. This allowed us to detect putative disease-causing mutations in 14 out of the 29 (48.28%) families analysed. Remarkably, around 38% of all adRP cases analysed showed mutations affecting the splicing process, mainly due to mutations in genes coding for spliceosome factors (SNRNP200 and PRPF8) but also due to splice-site mutations in RHO. Twelve of the 14 mutations found had been reported previously and two were novel mutations found in PRPF8 in two unrelated patients. In conclusion, our results will lead to more accurate genetic counselling and will contribute to a better characterisation of the disease. In addition, they may have a therapeutic impact in the future given the large number of studies currently underway based on targeted RNA splicing for therapeutic purposes.

  7. Haunted by ghosts: prevalence, predictors and outcomes of spirit possession experiences among former child soldiers and war-affected civilians in Northern Uganda.

    PubMed

    Neuner, Frank; Pfeiffer, Anett; Schauer-Kaiser, Elisabeth; Odenwald, Michael; Elbert, Thomas; Ertl, Verena

    2012-08-01

    Phenomena of spirit possession have been documented in many cultures. Some authors have argued that spirit possession is a type of psychopathology, and should be included as a category in diagnostic manuals of mental disorders. However, there are hardly any quantitative studies that report the prevalence of spirit possession on a population level and that provide evidence for its validity as a psychopathological entity. In an epidemiological study that was carried out in 2007 and 2008 with N = 1113 youths and young adults aged between 12 and 25 years in war-affected regions of Northern Uganda we examined the prevalence, predictors and outcomes of cen, a local variant of spirit possession. Randomly selected participants were interviewed using a scale of cen, measures of psychopathology (PTSD and depression) as well as indicators of functional outcome on different levels, including suicide risk, daily activities, perceived discrimination, physical complaints and aggression. We found that cen was more common among former child soldiers then among subjects without a history of abduction. Cen was related to extreme levels of traumatic events and uniquely predicted functional outcome even when the effects of PTSD and depression were controlled for. Our findings show that a long-lasting war that is accompanied by the proliferation of spiritual and magical beliefs and propaganda can lead to high levels of harmful spirit possession. In addition, we provide evidence for the incremental validity of spirit possession as a trauma-related psychological disorder in this context.

  8. Estimating the influence of life satisfaction and positive affect on later income using sibling fixed effects.

    PubMed

    De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel; Oswald, Andrew J

    2012-12-04

    The question of whether there is a connection between income and psychological well-being is a long-studied issue across the social, psychological, and behavioral sciences. Much research has found that richer people tend to be happier. However, relatively little attention has been paid to whether happier individuals perform better financially in the first place. This possibility of reverse causality is arguably understudied. Using data from a large US representative panel, we show that adolescents and young adults who report higher life satisfaction or positive affect grow up to earn significantly higher levels of income later in life. We focus on earnings approximately one decade after the person's well-being is measured; we exploit the availability of sibling clusters to introduce family fixed effects; we account for the human capacity to imagine later socioeconomic outcomes and to anticipate the resulting feelings in current well-being. The study's results are robust to the inclusion of controls such as education, intelligence quotient, physical health, height, self-esteem, and later happiness. We consider how psychological well-being may influence income. Sobel-Goodman mediation tests reveal direct and indirect effects that carry the influence from happiness to income. Significant mediating pathways include a higher probability of obtaining a college degree, getting hired and promoted, having higher degrees of optimism and extraversion, and less neuroticism.

  9. Factors affecting uncertainty in lung nodule volume estimation with CT: comparisons of findings from two estimation methods in a phantom study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Qin; Gavrielides, Marios A.; Zeng, Rongping; Myers, Kyle J.; Sahiner, Berkman; Petrick, Nicholas

    2015-03-01

    This work aimed to compare two different types of volume estimation methods (a model-based and a segmentationbased method) in terms of identifying factors affecting measurement uncertainty. Twenty-nine synthetic nodules with varying size, radiodensity, and shape were placed in an anthropomorphic thoracic phantom and scanned with a 16- detector row CT scanner. Ten repeat scans were acquired using three exposures and two slice collimations, and were reconstructed with varying slice thicknesses. Nodule volumes were estimated from the reconstructed data using a matched-filter and a segmentation approach. Log transformed volumes were used to obtain measurement error with truth obtained through micro-CT. ANOVA and multiple linear regression were applied to measurement error to identify significant factors affecting volume estimation for each method. Root mean square of measurement errors (RMSE) for meaningful subgroups, repeatability coefficients (RC) for different imaging protocols, and reproducibility coefficients (RDC) for thin and thick collimation conditions were evaluated. Results showed that for both methods, nodule size, shape and slice thickness were significant factors. Collimation was significant for the matched-filter method. RMSEs for matched-filter measurements were in general smaller than segmentation. To achieve RMSE on the order of 15% or less for {5, 8, 9, 10mm} nodules, the corresponding maximum allowable slice thicknesses were {3, 5, 5, 5mm} for the matched-filter and {0.8, 3, 3, 3mm} for the segmentation method. RCs showed similar patterns for both methods, increasing with slice thickness. For 8-10mm nodules, the measurements were highly repeatable provided the slice thickness was ≤3mm, regardless of method and across varying acquisition conditions. RDCs were lower for thin collimation than thick collimation protocols. While RDC of matched filter volume estimation results was always lower than segmentation results, for 8-10mm nodules with thin

  10. Estimating How Inflated or Obscured Effects of Climate Affect Forecasted Species Distribution

    PubMed Central

    Real, Raimundo; Romero, David; Olivero, Jesús; Estrada, Alba; Márquez, Ana L.

    2013-01-01

    Climate is one of the main drivers of species distribution. However, as different environmental factors tend to co-vary, the effect of climate cannot be taken at face value, as it may be either inflated or obscured by other correlated factors. We used the favourability models of four species (Alytes dickhilleni, Vipera latasti, Aquila fasciata and Capra pyrenaica) inhabiting Spanish mountains as case studies to evaluate the relative contribution of climate in their forecasted favourability by using variation partitioning and weighting the effect of climate in relation to non-climatic factors. By calculating the pure effect of the climatic factor, the pure effects of non-climatic factors, the shared climatic effect and the proportion of the pure effect of the climatic factor in relation to its apparent effect (ρ), we assessed the apparent effect and the pure independent effect of climate. We then projected both types of effects when modelling the future favourability for each species and combination of AOGCM-SRES (two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: CGCM2 and ECHAM4, and two Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B2). The results show that the apparent effect of climate can be either inflated (overrated) or obscured (underrated) by other correlated factors. These differences were species-specific; the sum of favourable areas forecasted according to the pure climatic effect differed from that forecasted according to the apparent climatic effect by about 61% on average for one of the species analyzed, and by about 20% on average for each of the other species. The pure effect of future climate on species distributions can only be estimated by combining climate with other factors. Transferring the pure climatic effect and the apparent climatic effect to the future delimits the maximum and minimum favourable areas forecasted for each species in each climate change scenario. PMID:23349726

  11. Estimating how inflated or obscured effects of climate affect forecasted species distribution.

    PubMed

    Real, Raimundo; Romero, David; Olivero, Jesús; Estrada, Alba; Márquez, Ana L

    2013-01-01

    Climate is one of the main drivers of species distribution. However, as different environmental factors tend to co-vary, the effect of climate cannot be taken at face value, as it may be either inflated or obscured by other correlated factors. We used the favourability models of four species (Alytes dickhilleni, Vipera latasti, Aquila fasciata and Capra pyrenaica) inhabiting Spanish mountains as case studies to evaluate the relative contribution of climate in their forecasted favourability by using variation partitioning and weighting the effect of climate in relation to non-climatic factors. By calculating the pure effect of the climatic factor, the pure effects of non-climatic factors, the shared climatic effect and the proportion of the pure effect of the climatic factor in relation to its apparent effect (ρ), we assessed the apparent effect and the pure independent effect of climate. We then projected both types of effects when modelling the future favourability for each species and combination of AOGCM-SRES (two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: CGCM2 and ECHAM4, and two Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B2). The results show that the apparent effect of climate can be either inflated (overrated) or obscured (underrated) by other correlated factors. These differences were species-specific; the sum of favourable areas forecasted according to the pure climatic effect differed from that forecasted according to the apparent climatic effect by about 61% on average for one of the species analyzed, and by about 20% on average for each of the other species. The pure effect of future climate on species distributions can only be estimated by combining climate with other factors. Transferring the pure climatic effect and the apparent climatic effect to the future delimits the maximum and minimum favourable areas forecasted for each species in each climate change scenario.

  12. Edge type affects leaf-level water relations and estimated transpiration of Eucalyptus arenacea.

    PubMed

    Wright, Thomas E; Tausz, Michael; Kasel, Sabine; Volkova, Liubov; Merchant, Andrew; Bennett, Lauren T

    2012-03-01

    plantation edges in summer months (most likely due to greater water availability at pasture edges), resulting in significantly greater estimates of annual transpiration at pasture than plantation edges (430 vs. 343lm(-2)year(-1), respectively). Our study highlights the need for landscape-level water flux models to account for edge effects on stand transpiration, particularly in highly fragmented landscapes.

  13. Population-based study to estimate prevalence and determine risk factors of gallbladder diseases in the rural Gangetic basin of North India

    PubMed Central

    Unisa, Sayeed; Jagannath, Palepu; Dhir, Vinay; Khandelwal, Chiranjeeva; Sarangi, Lalatendu; Roy, Tarun Kumar

    2011-01-01

    Background A high prevalence of gallbladder diseases (GBD) in Northern India warranted a population survey into environmental risk factors. Methods In 60 villages of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar from 13 334 households, 22 861 persons aged >30 years were interviewed for symptoms of GBD, diet and environmental factors. Subsequently ultrasonography (US) was performed in 5100 and 1448 people with and without symptoms, respectively. Heavy metal and pesticide content in soil and water were estimated. Results US revealed a prevalence of GBD of 6.20%. GBD was more common in 5100 persons with symptoms (7.12%) compared with 1448 without (2.99%) (P < 0.05). Adjusted odds ratio (ORs) [95% confidence interval (CI)] revealed a significantly increased risk of GBD in females >50, 1.703 (CI 1.292–2.245); multiparity 1.862 (CI 1.306–2.655) and a genetic history 1.564 (CI 1.049–2.334). An increased risk noted in males with diabetes was 4.271 (CI 2.130–8.566), chickpea consumption 2.546 (CI 1.563–4.146) and drinking unsafe water 3.835 (CI 2.368–6.209). Prevalence of gallstones was 4.15%; more in females 5.59% than males 1.99% (P < 0.05). Cluster analysis identified a positive correlation of nickel, cadmium and chromium in water with a high prevalence of GBD in adjacent villages in Vaishali district, Bihar. Conclusion A high risk of GBD was observed in older, multiparous women and men with diabetes, intake of chickpeas, unsafe water and villages with heavy metal water pollution. PMID:21241429

  14. Smoking and smokeless tobacco use in nine South and Southeast Asian countries: prevalence estimates and social determinants from Demographic and Health Surveys

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background In South and Southeast Asian countries, tobacco is consumed in diverse forms, and smoking among women is very low. We aimed to provide national estimates of prevalence and social determinants of smoking and smokeless tobacco use among men and women separately. Methods Data from Demographic and Health Surveys completed in nine countries (India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Maldives, Philippines, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Timor Leste) were analyzed. Current smoking or smokeless tobacco use was assessed as response “yes” to one or more of three questions, such as “Do you currently smoke cigarettes?” Weighted country-level prevalence rates for socio-economic subgroups were calculated for smoking and smokeless tobacco use. Binary logistic regression analyses were done on STATA/IC (version 10) by ‘svy’ command. Results Prevalence and type of tobacco use among men and women varied across the countries and among socio-economic sub groups. Smoking prevalence was much lower in women than men in all countries. Smoking among men was very high in Indonesia, Maldives, and Bangladesh. Smokeless tobacco (mainly chewable) was used in diverse forms, particularly in India, among both men and women. Chewing tobacco was common in Nepal, Bangladesh, Maldives, and Cambodia. Both smoking and smokeless tobacco use were associated with higher age, lower education, and poverty, but their association with place of residence and marital status was not uniform between men and women across the countries. Conclusion Policymakers should consider type of tobacco consumption and their differentials among various population subgroups to implement country-specific tobacco control policies and target the vulnerable groups. Smokeless tobacco use should also be prioritized in tobacco control efforts. PMID:25183954

  15. Burden of Six Healthcare-Associated Infections on European Population Health: Estimating Incidence-Based Disability-Adjusted Life Years through a Population Prevalence-Based Modelling Study

    PubMed Central

    Eckmanns, Tim; Abu Sin, Muna; Ducomble, Tanja; Harder, Thomas; Sixtensson, Madlen; Velasco, Edward; Weiß, Bettina; Kramarz, Piotr; Monnet, Dominique L.; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E.; Suetens, Carl

    2016-01-01

    Background Estimating the burden of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) compared to other communicable diseases is an ongoing challenge given the need for good quality data on the incidence of these infections and the involved comorbidities. Based on the methodology of the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE) project and 2011–2012 data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) point prevalence survey (PPS) of HAIs and antimicrobial use in European acute care hospitals, we estimated the burden of six common HAIs. Methods and Findings The included HAIs were healthcare-associated pneumonia (HAP), healthcare-associated urinary tract infection (HA UTI), surgical site infection (SSI), healthcare-associated Clostridium difficile infection (HA CDI), healthcare-associated neonatal sepsis, and healthcare-associated primary bloodstream infection (HA primary BSI). The burden of these HAIs was measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Evidence relating to the disease progression pathway of each type of HAI was collected through systematic literature reviews, in order to estimate the risks attributable to HAIs. For each of the six HAIs, gender and age group prevalence from the ECDC PPS was converted into incidence rates by applying the Rhame and Sudderth formula. We adjusted for reduced life expectancy within the hospital population using three severity groups based on McCabe score data from the ECDC PPS. We estimated that 2,609,911 new cases of HAI occur every year in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA). The cumulative burden of the six HAIs was estimated at 501 DALYs per 100,000 general population each year in EU/EEA. HAP and HA primary BSI were associated with the highest burden and represented more than 60% of the total burden, with 169 and 145 DALYs per 100,000 total population, respectively. HA UTI, SSI, HA CDI, and HA primary BSI ranked as the third to sixth syndromes in terms of burden of disease

  16. An improved procedure for estimation of malignant breast cancer prevalence using partially rank ordered set samples with multiple concomitants.

    PubMed

    Hatefi, Armin; Jafari Jozani, Mohammad

    2015-08-26

    Rank-based sampling designs are widely used in situations where measuring the variable of interest is costly but a small number of sampling units (set) can be easily ranked prior to taking the final measurements on them and this can be done at little cost. When the variable of interest is binary, a common approach for ranking the sampling units is to estimate the probabilities of success through a logistic regression model. However, this requires training samples for model fitting. Also, in this approach once a sampling unit has been measured, the extra rank information obtained in the ranking process is not used further in the estimation process. To address these issues, in this paper, we propose to use the partially rank-ordered set sampling design with multiple concomitants. In this approach, instead of fitting a logistic regression model, a soft ranking technique is employed to obtain a vector of weights for each measured unit that represents the probability or the degree of belief associated with its rank among a small set of sampling units. We construct an estimator which combines the rank information and the observed partially rank-ordered set measurements themselves. The proposed methodology is applied to a breast cancer study to estimate the proportion of patients with malignant (cancerous) breast tumours in a given population. Through extensive numerical studies, the performance of the estimator is evaluated under various concomitants with different ranking potentials (i.e. good, intermediate and bad) and tie structures among the ranks. We show that the precision of the partially rank-ordered set estimator is better than its counterparts under simple random sampling and ranked set sampling designs and, hence, the sample size required to achieve a desired precision is reduced.

  17. Nonmedical use of prescription drugs and related negative sexual events: Prevalence estimates and correlates in college students.

    PubMed

    Parks, Kathleen A; Frone, Michael R; Muraven, Mark; Boyd, Carol

    2017-02-01

    The present study of college students investigated (a) the prevalence of nonmedical use of three classes of prescription drugs (stimulants, anxiolytics/sedatives, analgesics), (b) the prevalence of negative sexual events (NSE) associated with any nonmedical use of prescription drugs (NMUPD), and (c) a set of correlates of NSE. The specific NSE were sexual aggression victimization and perpetration, and regretted sex. The correlates of the NSE were sex, race/ethnicity, year in school, psychological symptoms, alcohol use, illegal drug use, and NMUPD. Participants were 509 (254 females, 255 males) randomly-selected college students who reported any NMUPD. The majority (76.2%) of the sample reported ever using stimulants, 38.9% reported ever using anxiolytics/sedatives, and 40.9% reported using analgesics. During NMUPD, 14.3% of the students reported regretted sex, 7.1% of female students reported sexual victimization, and 6.3% of male students reported perpetrating sexual aggression. Multiple logistic regression analyses indicated that anxiolytic/sedative use (Adj. OR=1.99; 95% CI=1.51-2.62) was positively associated with regretted sex, whereas anxiolytic/sedative use (Adj. OR=1.79; 95% CI=1.01-3.16) and psychological symptoms (Adj. OR=1.06; 95% CI=1.02-1.10) were positively associated with sexual victimization. Illegal drug use was positively associated with perpetrating sexual aggression (Adj. OR=4.10; 95% CI=1.21-13.86). These findings suggest that among these college students, NMUPD-associated NSE were not uncommon, and primarily associated with anxiolytic/sedative use. Given the academic, physical, and psychological implications associated with NSE, research needs to further explore the causal nature of these relations.

  18. Violence and Drug Use in Rural Teens: National Prevalence Estimates from the 2003 Youth Risk Behavior Survey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Andrew O.; Mink, Michael D.; Harun, Nusrat; Moore, Charity G.; Martin, Amy B.; Bennett, Kevin J.

    2008-01-01

    Objectives: The purpose of this study was to compare national estimates of drug use and exposure to violence between rural and urban teens. Methods: Twenty-eight dependent variables from the 2003 Youth Risk Behavior Survey were used to compare violent activities, victimization, suicidal behavior, tobacco use, alcohol use, and illegal drug use…

  19. A Functional Vesicular Monoamine Transporter 1 (VMAT1) Gene Variant Is Associated with Affect and the Prevalence of Anxiety, Affective, and Alcohol Use Disorders in a Longitudinal Population-Representative Birth Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Vaht, Mariliis; Kiive, Evelyn; Veidebaum, Toomas

    2016-01-01

    Background: Inter-individual differences in the monoaminergic systems have been shown to moderate the risk for a lifetime history of anxiety, affective, and alcohol use disorders. A common single nucleotide polymorphism in the vesicular monoamine transporter 1 gene (VMAT1 rs1390938 G/A; Thr136Ile) has been reported as functional in vitro and associated with bipolar disorder and anxiety. We aimed at assessing the association between the VMAT1 genotype, affect, and affect-related psychiatric disorders in a longitudinal population-representative study. Methods: We used the database of the Estonian Children Personality Behaviour and Health Study (beginning in 1998). Cohorts of initially 9- (recalled at ages 15 and 18 years, n=579) and 15- (recalled at ages 18 and 25 years; n=654) year-old children provided self-reports on impulsivity, anxiety, depressiveness, neuroticism, and alcohol use. In addition, psychiatric assessment based on DSM-IV was carried out in the older cohort at age 25 years. Results: Subjects homozygous for the less prevalent A (136Ile) allele reported lower maladaptive impulsivity, state and trait anxiety, depressiveness, and neuroticism and were less likely to have been diagnosed with an affective, anxiety, and/or alcohol use disorder by young adulthood. While in the younger cohort alcohol use started at younger age, this birth cohort effect was dependent on genotype: only G allele carriers and in particular the GG homozygotes started alcohol use earlier. Conclusions: VMAT1 rs1390938/Thr136Ile is associated with mood, personality, and alcohol use in the general population. Subjects homozygous for the “hyperfunction” allele (AA; Ile/Ile) appear to be more resilient to these disorders. PMID:26861143

  20. Estimates of Octanol-Water Partitioning for Thousands of Dissolved Organic Species in Oil Sands Process-Affected Water.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Kun; Pereira, Alberto S; Martin, Jonathan W

    2015-07-21

    In this study, the octanol-water distribution ratios (DOW, that is, apparent KOW at pH 8.4) of 2114 organic species in oil sands process-affected water were estimated by partitioning to polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) coated stir bars and analysis by ultrahigh resolution orbitrap mass spectrometry in electrospray positive ((+)) and negative ((-)) ionization modes. At equilibrium, the majority of species in OSPW showed negligible partitioning to PDMS (i.e., DOW <1), however estimated DOW's for some species ranged up to 100,000. Most organic acids detected in ESI- had negligible partitioning, although some naphthenic acids (O2(-) species) had estimated DOW ranging up to 100. Polar neutral and basic compounds detected in ESI+ generally partitioned to PDMS to a greater extent than organic acids. Among these species, DOW was greatest among 3 groups: up to 1000 for mono-oxygenated species (O(+) species), up to 127,000 for NO(+) species, and up to 203,000 for SO(+) species. A positive relationship was observed between DOW and carbon number, and a negative relationship was observed with the number of double bonds (or rings). The results highlight that nonacidic compounds in OSPW are generally more hydrophobic than naphthenic acids and that some may be highly bioaccumulative and contribute to toxicity.

  1. Changes in prevalence of tobacco use and the factors that may affect use among Uganda youth: the Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) 2007-2011

    PubMed Central

    Kadobera, Daniel; Chaussard, Martine; Lee, Kyung Ah; Ayebazibwe, Nicholas; Ndyanabangi, Sheila

    2016-01-01

    Introduction To assess changes from 2007 to 2011 in the prevalence of tobacco use and tobacco-related indicators in Uganda by examining results from the Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS). Methods Both the 2007 (n=2,251) and 2011 (n=2,026) Uganda GYTS were conducted among students in primary seven, secondary one, two, and three. A two-stage cluster sample design was used to generate a representative sample of students for the surveys. Stata 12 software was used to provide weighted prevalence estimates and logistic regression models were developed to examine the relationship between factors that influence tobacco use and current tobacco use. Results The percentage of students who had ever smoked a cigarette, even just one or two puffs, declined from 15.6% in 2007 to 10.9% in 2011 (p=0.03). From 2007 to 2011, neither the percentage of current use of any tobacco (16.6% to 17.3%, p=0.75), nor the percentage of current (past 30 day) cigarette smoking (5.5% to 4.8%,p=0.59) changed significantly. Following adjustment, having parents [Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR):1.9, 95% Confidence Interval (CI):1.3-2.8] and friends [AOR 2.5, 95% CI: 1.5-4.0)] who smoke, and having seen tobacco advertisements in print media [AOR 1.8(1.3-2.4)], were associated with greater odds of current tobacco use among students in 2007.Having parents who smoke [AOR;1.8, 95% CI: 1.1-3.0] was associated with greater odds of current tobacco use among students in 2011. Conclusion From 2007 to 2011, no significant change occurred in the prevalence of current tobacco use or cigarette smoking among youth in Uganda. These findings underscore the importance of implementing effective population-level public health interventions, as outlined in the articles of the World Health Organization’s Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, to prevent and reduce the use of tobacco among youth in Uganda. PMID:28292114

  2. Estimated protein intakes of toddlers: predicted prevalence of inadequate intakes in village populations in Egypt, Kenya, and Mexico.

    PubMed

    Beaton, G H; Calloway, D H; Murphy, S P

    1992-04-01

    This paper presents a probability assessment of the adequacy of protein intakes of toddlers (aged 18-30 mo) in study communities in Egypt, Kenya, and Mexico judged in relation to FAO/WHO/UNU estimates of requirements. Effects of supplementing amino acid intakes, or of assuming lower bioavailability for lysine are also considered. In Egypt and Mexico existing protein intakes of toddlers were adequate. In Kenya existing intakes were marginal. Total protein intake was low and often lysine or tryptophan concentration was low. If Kenyan intakes met estimated energy requirements, protein intakes would be adequate. We conclude that protein intake is unlikely to be a primary limiting factor for toddler growth and development, and the benefit to be expected from increasing the intake of limiting amino acids is marginal. Reported associations of animal-source protein and energy with growth, size, and psychologic function of these toddlers are unlikely to be causally attributable to inadequacy of protein intakes.

  3. Prevalence of Children with Severe Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders in Communities Near Rome, Italy: New Estimated Rates Are Higher than Previous Estimates

    PubMed Central

    May, Philip A.; Fiorentino, Daniela; Coriale, Giovanna; Kalberg, Wendy O.; Hoyme, H. Eugene; Aragón, Alfredo S.; Buckley, David; Stellavato, Chandra; Gossage, J. Phillip; Robinson, Luther K.; Jones, Kenneth Lyons; Manning, Melanie; Ceccanti, Mauro

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To determine the population-based epidemiology of fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS) and other fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASD) in towns representative of the general population of central Italy. Methods: Slightly revised U.S. Institute of Medicine diagnostic methods were used among children in randomly-selected schools near Rome. Consented first grade children (n = 976) were screened in Tier I for height, weight, or head circumference and all children ≤10th centile on one of these measurements were included in the study. Also, teachers referred children for learning or behavioral problems. Children meeting either of these two criteria, along with randomly-selected controls, advanced to Tier II which began with a dysmorphology examination. Children with a possible FASD, and controls, advanced to Tier III for neurobehavioral testing, and their mothers were interviewed for maternal risks. Final diagnoses using indicators of dysmorphology, neurobehavior, and maternal risk were made in formally-structured, interdisciplinary case conferences. Results: Case control comparisons of physical, neurobehavioral, and maternal risk variables are presented for 46 children with an FASD and 116 randomly-selected controls without a diagnosis on the FASD continuum. Rates of diagnoses within the FASD continuum are then estimated from these in-school data via three different methods. The range of rates of FAS produced by these methods is between 4.0 to 12.0 per 1,000; Partial FAS ranges from 18.1 to 46.3 per 1,000; and an FASD was found in 2.3% to 6.3% of the children. Conclusions: These rates are substantially higher than previous estimates of FAS and overall FASD for the general populations of Western Europe and the U. S., and raise questions as to the total impact of FASD on mental deficit in mainstream populations of Western Europe and the United States where the majority are middle class and are not believed to be characterized by heavy episodic drinking. PMID

  4. On the estimation of disease prevalence by latent class models for screening studies using two screening tests with categorical disease status verified in test positives only.

    PubMed

    Chu, Haitao; Zhou, Yijie; Cole, Stephen R; Ibrahim, Joseph G

    2010-05-20

    To evaluate the probabilities of a disease state, ideally all subjects in a study should be diagnosed by a definitive diagnostic or gold standard test. However, since definitive diagnostic tests are often invasive and expensive, it is generally unethical to apply them to subjects whose screening tests are negative. In this article, we consider latent class models for screening studies with two imperfect binary diagnostic tests and a definitive categorical disease status measured only for those with at least one positive screening test. Specifically, we discuss a conditional-independent and three homogeneous conditional-dependent latent class models and assess the impact of misspecification of the dependence structure on the estimation of disease category probabilities using frequentist and Bayesian approaches. Interestingly, the three homogeneous-dependent models can provide identical goodness-of-fit but substantively different estimates for a given study. However, the parametric form of the assumed dependence structure itself is not 'testable' from the data, and thus the dependence structure modeling considered here can only be viewed as a sensitivity analysis concerning a more complicated non-identifiable model potentially involving a heterogeneous dependence structure. Furthermore, we discuss Bayesian model averaging together with its limitations as an alternative way to partially address this particularly challenging problem. The methods are applied to two cancer screening studies, and simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of these methods. In summary, further research is needed to reduce the impact of model misspecification on the estimation of disease prevalence in such settings.

  5. Dynamic Testing of a Pre-stretched Flexible Tube for Identifying the Factors Affecting Modal Parameter Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Unnikrishnan, Madhusudanan; Rajan, Akash; Basanthvihar Raghunathan, Binulal; Kochupillai, Jayaraj

    2016-06-01

    Experimental modal analysis is the primary tool for obtaining the fundamental dynamic characteristics like natural frequency, mode shape and modal damping ratio that determine the behaviour of any structure under dynamic loading conditions. This paper discusses about a carefully designed experimental method for calculating the dynamic characteristics of a pre-stretched horizontal flexible tube made of polyurethane material. The factors that affect the modal parameter estimation like the application time of shaker excitation, pause time between successive excitation cycles, averaging and windowing of measured signal, as well as the precautions to be taken during the experiment are explained in detail. The modal parameter estimation is done using MEscopeVESTM software. A finite element based pre-stressed modal analysis of the flexible tube is also done using ANSYS ver.14.0 software. The experimental and analytical results agreed well. The proposed experimental methodology may be extended for carrying out the modal analysis of many flexible structures like inflatables, tires and membranes.

  6. High Prevalence of Post-Traumatic Stress Symptoms in Relation to Social Factors in Affected Population One Year after the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster

    PubMed Central

    Tsujiuchi, Takuya; Yamaguchi, Maya; Masuda, Kazutaka; Tsuchida, Marisa; Inomata, Tadashi; Kumano, Hiroaki; Kikuchi, Yasushi; Augusterfer, Eugene F.; Mollica, Richard F.

    2016-01-01

    Objective This study investigated post-traumatic stress symptoms in relation to the population affected by the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster, one year after the disaster. Additionally, we investigated social factors, such as forced displacement, which we hypothesize contributed to the high prevalence of post-traumatic stress. Finally, we report of written narratives that were collected from the impacted population. Design and Settings Using the Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R), questionnaires were sent to 2,011 households of those displaced from Fukushima prefecture living temporarily in Saitama prefecture. Of the 490 replies; 350 met the criteria for inclusion in the study. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to examine several characteristics and variables of social factors as predictors of probable post-traumatic stress disorder, PTSD. Results The mean score of IES-R was 36.15±21.55, with 59.4% having scores of 30 or higher, thus indicating a probable PTSD. No significant differences in percentages of high-risk subjects were found among sex, age, evacuation area, housing damages, tsunami affected, family split-up, and acquaintance support. By the result of multiple logistic regression analysis, the significant predictors of probable PTSD were chronic physical diseases (OR = 1.97), chronic mental diseases (OR = 6.25), worries about livelihood (OR = 2.27), lost jobs (OR = 1.71), lost social ties (OR = 2.27), and concerns about compensation (OR = 3.74). Conclusion Although there are limitations in assuming a diagnosis of PTSD based on self-report IES-R, our findings indicate that there was a high-risk of PTSD strongly related to the nuclear disaster and its consequent evacuation and displacement. Therefore, recovery efforts must focus not only on medical and psychological treatment alone, but also on social and economic issues related to the displacement, as well. PMID:27002324

  7. Hate crimes and stigma-related experiences among sexual minority adults in the United States: prevalence estimates from a national probability sample.

    PubMed

    Herek, Gregory M

    2009-01-01

    Using survey responses collected via the Internet from a U.S. national probability sample of gay, lesbian, and bisexual adults (N = 662), this article reports prevalence estimates of criminal victimization and related experiences based on the target's sexual orientation. Approximately 20% of respondents reported having experienced a person or property crime based on their sexual orientation; about half had experienced verbal harassment, and more than 1 in 10 reported having experienced employment or housing discrimination. Gay men were significantly more likely than lesbians or bisexuals to experience violence and property crimes. Employment and housing discrimination were significantly more likely among gay men and lesbians than among bisexual men and women. Implications for future research and policy are discussed.

  8. Prevalence of Bone Mineral Density Abnormalities and Factors Affecting Bone Density in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in a Tertiary Care Hospital in Southern India

    PubMed Central

    Mani, Sathish Kumar; Gopal, Gopinath Kango; Rangasami, Srinivasan

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a disease of wasting with airflow limitation, associated with a variety of systemic manifestations such as reduced Bone Mineral Density (BMD). There is a paucity of Indian studies on the effects of COPD on BMD. Aim This study was conducted to estimate the prevalence of osteopenia and osteoporosis in COPD patients and the correlation between bone density and severity of COPD classified according to GOLD Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease guidelines (GOLD). Materials and Methods A prospective study of 60 patients diagnosed to have COPD, was conducted in the outpatient department of Respiratory Medicine, at a tertiary care hospital in Southern India, between September 2012 and September 2013. BMD was measured using ultrasound bone densitometer (ACHILLES GE HEALTH CARE). Patients with a T-score between -1 and -2.5 were considered to be osteopenic while patients with a T score less than -2.5 were considered to be osteoporotic (WHO criteria). Results Overall, 40 (67%) patients had an abnormal bone mineral density. A total of 21 (35%) patients were osteoporotic while 19 (33%) were osteopenic. BMD levels correlated with severity of obstruction (p<0.001), smoking status (p=0.02), age (p=0.05) and number of pack years (p=0.001). Conclusion Patients with COPD are at an increased risk for lower BMD and osteoporotic fractures and the risk appears to increase with disease severity. Further studies are required to assess whether routine BMD measurements in COPD patients is beneficial to diagnose osteoporosis and reduce morbidity. PMID:27790490

  9. Estimation of flock/herd-level true Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis prevalence on sheep, beef cattle and deer farms in New Zealand using a novel Bayesian model.

    PubMed

    Verdugo, Cristobal; Jones, Geoff; Johnson, Wes; Wilson, Peter; Stringer, Lesley; Heuer, Cord

    2014-12-01

    The study aimed to estimate the national- and island-level flock/herd true prevalence (HTP) of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection in pastoral farmed sheep, beef cattle and deer in New Zealand. A random sample of 238 single- or multi-species farms was selected from a postal surveyed population of 1940 farms. The sample included 162 sheep flocks, 116 beef cattle and 99 deer herds from seven of 16 geographical regions. Twenty animals from each species present on farm were randomly selected for blood and faecal sampling. Pooled faecal culture testing was conducted using a single pool (sheep flocks) or two pools (beef cattle/deer herds) of 20 and 10 samples per pool, respectively. To increase flock/herd-level sensitivity, sera from all 20 animals from culture negative flocks/herds were individually tested by Pourquier(®) ELISA (sheep and cattle) or Paralisa™ (deer). Results were adjusted for sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic tests using a novel Bayesian latent class model. Outcomes were adjusted by their sampling fractions to obtain HTP estimates at national level. For each species, the posterior probability (POPR) of HTP differences between New Zealand North (NI) and South (SI) Islands was obtained. Across all species, 69% of farms had at least one species test positive. Sheep flocks had the highest HTP estimate (76%, posterior probability interval (PPI) 70-81%), followed by deer (46%, PPI 38-55%) and beef herds (42%, PPI 35-50%). Differences were observed between the two main islands of New Zealand, with higher HTP in sheep and beef cattle flocks/herds in the NI. Sheep flock HTP was 80% in the NI compared with 70% (POPR=0.96) in the SI, while the HTP for beef cattle was 44% in the NI and 38% in the SI (POPR=0.80). Conversely, deer HTP was higher in the SI (54%) than the NI (33%, POPR=0.99). Infection with MAP is endemic at high prevalence in sheep, beef cattle and deer flocks/herds across New Zealand.

  10. Fate of chemicals in skin after dermal application: does the in vitro skin reservoir affect the estimate of systemic absorption?

    PubMed

    Yourick, Jeffrey J; Koenig, Michael L; Yourick, Debra L; Bronaugh, Robert L

    2004-03-15

    Recent international guidelines for the conduct of in vitro skin absorption studies put forward different approaches for addressing the status of chemicals remaining in the stratum corneum and epidermis/dermis at the end of a study. The present study investigated the fate of three chemicals [dihydroxyacetone (DHA), 7-(2H-naphtho[1,2-d]triazol-2-yl)-3-phenylcoumarin (7NTPC), and disperse blue 1 (DB1)] in an in vitro absorption study. In these studies, human and fuzzy rat skin penetration and absorption were determined over 24 or 72 h in flow-through diffusion cells. Skin penetration of these chemicals resulted in relatively low receptor fluid levels but high skin levels. For DHA, penetration studies found approximately 22% of the applied dose remaining in the skin (in both the stratum corneum and viable tissue) as a reservoir after 24 h. Little of the DHA that penetrates into skin is actually available to become systemically absorbed. 7NTPC remaining in the skin after 24 h was approximately 14.7% of the applied dose absorbed. Confocal laser cytometry studies with 7NTPC showed that it is present across skin in mainly the epidermis and dermis with intense fluorescence around hair. For DB1, penetration studies found approximately 10% (ethanol vehicle) and 3% (formulation vehicle) of the applied dose localized in mainly the stratum corneum after 24 h. An extended absorption study (72 h) revealed that little additional DB1 was absorbed into the receptor fluid. Skin levels should not be considered as absorbed material for DHA or DB1, while 7NTPC requires further investigation. These studies illustrate the importance of determining the fate of chemicals remaining in skin, which could significantly affect the estimates of systemically available material to be used in exposure estimates. We recommend that a more conclusive means to determine the fate of skin levels is to perform an extended study as conducted for DB1.

  11. Evaluation of swabbing methods for estimating the prevalence of bacterial carriage in the upper respiratory tract: a cross sectional study

    PubMed Central

    Coughtrie, A L; Whittaker, R N; Begum, N; Anderson, R; Tuck, A; Faust, S N; Jefferies, J M; Yuen, H M; Roderick, P J; Mullee, M A; Moore, M V; Clarke, S C

    2014-01-01

    Objectives Bacterial carriage in the upper respiratory tract is usually asymptomatic but can lead to respiratory tract infection (RTI), meningitis and septicaemia. We aimed to provide a baseline measure of Streptococcus pneumoniae, Moraxella catarrhalis, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Staphylococcus aureus, Haemophilus influenzae and Neisseria meningitidis carriage within the community. Self-swabbing and healthcare professional (HCP) swabbing were compared. Design Cross-sectional study. Setting Individuals registered at 20 general practitioner practices within the Wessex Primary Care Research Network South West, UK. Participants 10 448 individuals were invited to participate; 5394 within a self-swabbing group and 5054 within a HCP swabbing group. Self-swabbing invitees included 2405 individuals aged 0–4 years and 3349 individuals aged ≥5 years. HCP swabbing invitees included 1908 individuals aged 0–4 years and 3146 individuals aged ≥5 years. Results 1574 (15.1%) individuals participated, 1260 (23.4%, 95% CI 22.3% to 24.5%) undertaking self-swabbing and 314 (6.2%, 95% CI 5.5% to 6.9%) undertaking HCP-led swabbing. Participation was lower in young children and more deprived practice locations. Swab positivity rates were 34.8% (95% CI 32.2% to 37.4%) for self-taken nose swabs (NS), 19% (95% CI 16.8% to 21.2%) for self-taken whole mouth swabs (WMS), 25.2% (95% CI 20.4% to 30%) for nasopharyngeal swabs (NPS) and 33.4% (95% CI 28.2% to 38.6%) for HCP-taken WMS. Carriage rates of S. aureus were highest in NS (21.3%). S. pneumoniae carriage was highest in NS (11%) and NPS (7.4%). M. catarrhalis carriage was highest in HCP-taken WMS (28.8%). H. influenzae and P. aeruginosa carriage were similar between swab types. N. meningitidis was not detected in any swab. Age and recent RTI affected carriage of S. pneumoniae and H. influenzae. Participant costs were lower for self-swabbing (£41.21) versus HCP swabbing (£69.66). Conclusions Higher participation and lower

  12. Single vessel air injection estimates of xylem resistance to cavitation are affected by vessel network characteristics and sample length.

    PubMed

    Venturas, Martin D; Rodriguez-Zaccaro, F Daniela; Percolla, Marta I; Crous, Casparus J; Jacobsen, Anna L; Pratt, R Brandon

    2016-10-01

    Xylem resistance to cavitation is an important trait that is related to the ecology and survival of plant species. Vessel network characteristics, such as vessel length and connectivity, could affect the spread of emboli from gas-filled vessels to functional ones, triggering their cavitation. We hypothesized that the cavitation resistance of xylem vessels is randomly distributed throughout the vessel network. We predicted that single vessel air injection (SVAI) vulnerability curves (VCs) would thus be affected by sample length. Longer stem samples were predicted to appear more resistant than shorter samples due to the sampled path including greater numbers of vessels. We evaluated the vessel network characteristics of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.), English oak (Quercus robur L.) and black cottonwood (Populus trichocarpa Torr. & A. Gray), and constructed SVAI VCs for 5- and 20-cm-long segments. We also constructed VCs with a standard centrifuge method and used computer modelling to estimate the curve shift expected for pathways composed of different numbers of vessels. For all three species, the SVAI VCs for 5 cm segments rose exponentially and were more vulnerable than the 20 cm segments. The 5 cm curve shapes were exponential and were consistent with centrifuge VCs. Modelling data supported the observed SVAI VC shifts, which were related to path length and vessel network characteristics. These results suggest that exponential VCs represent the most realistic curve shape for individual vessel resistance distributions for these species. At the network level, the presence of some vessels with a higher resistance to cavitation may help avoid emboli spread during tissue dehydration.

  13. [ASRS v.1.1., a tool for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder screening in adults treated for addictive behaviors: psychometric properties and estimated prevalence].

    PubMed

    Pedrero Pérez, Eduardo J; Puerta García, Carmen

    2007-01-01

    ASRS v.1.1. is a self-applied brief instrument for the screening of individuals presenting symptoms of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and proposed by the WHO. The purpose of the present work was to test the instrument and examine the results of its application to a sample of 280 individuals in treatment for substance-related disorders (cross-sectional descriptive study). We administered simultaneously in the initial phases of treatment the ASRS v.1.1. (short form) and the MCMI-II to the full sample and the Wender Utah Rating Scale (WURS), ADHD-Rating Scale-IV and ASRS v.1.1. (complete form) to various sub-samples. Diagnostic interviews were also carried out and the psychometric properties and factorial structure of ASRS v.1.1. were explored. Good convergent validity, sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic capability were obtained for the six-item version of ASRS v.1.1., even though 4 out of 6 items did not discriminate between Axis I and II disorders assessed through the MCMI-II and diagnostic interviews. According to DSM-IV-TR criteria the estimated prevalence of ADHD in the sample of addicts was 8.2%. ASRS v.1.1. is criticized as a specific instrument for ADHD detection, since most of its items appear to measure a non-specific dimension of compulsiveness/impulsiveness, common to Axis-I and Axis-II disorders. Other criticisms made in the discussion concern the lack of specificity of DSM criteria and the confusion they generate among the concepts of symptom, sign and trait (including the impact on study results), the general use of the A criterion but the omission of the B, C, D and E criteria of the DSM category, differences in samples (with regard to both severity and selection criteria), and the artifactual increases in prevalence found in many studies.

  14. Prevalence of Sexual Dysfunctions

    PubMed Central

    Simons, Jeffrey; Carey, Michael P.

    2008-01-01

    Ten years of research that has provided data regarding the prevalence of sexual dysfunctions is reviewed. A thorough review of the literature identified 52 studies that have been published in the 10 years since an earlier review by Spector and Carey (1990). Community samples indicate a current prevalence of 0 - 3% for male orgasmic disorder, 0 - 5% for erectile disorder, and 0 - 3% for male hypoactive sexual desire disorder. Pooling current and 1-year figures provides community prevalence estimates of 7 - 10% for female orgasmic disorder and 4 - 5% for premature ejaculation. Stable community estimates of the current prevalence for the other sexual dysfunctions remain unavailable. Prevalence estimates obtained from primary care and sexuality clinic samples are characteristically higher. Although a relatively large number of studies have been conducted since Spector and Carey’s (1990) review, the lack of methodological rigor of many studies limits the confidence that can be placed in these findings. PMID:11329727

  15. Prevalence Estimates of Complicated Syphilis.

    PubMed

    Dombrowski, Julia C; Pedersen, Rolf; Marra, Christina M; Kerani, Roxanne P; Golden, Matthew R

    2015-12-01

    We reviewed 68 cases of possible neurosyphilis among 573 syphilis cases in King County, WA, from 3rd January 2012 to 30th September 2013; 7.9% (95% confidence interval, 5.8%-10.5%) had vision or hearing changes, and 3.5% (95% confidence interval, 2.2%-5.4%) had both symptoms and objective confirmation of complicated syphilis with either abnormal cerebrospinal fluid or an abnormal ophthalmologic examination.

  16. Estimating the incidence, prevalence and true cost of asthma in the UK: secondary analysis of national stand-alone and linked databases in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales—a study protocol

    PubMed Central

    Mukherjee, Mome; Gupta, Ramyani; Farr, Angela; Heaven, Martin; Stoddart, Andrew; Nwaru, Bright I; Fitzsimmons, Deborah; Chamberlain, George; Bandyopadhyay, Amrita; Fischbacher, Colin; Dibben, Christopher; Shields, Michael; Phillips, Ceri; Strachan, David; Davies, Gwyneth; McKinstry, Brian; Sheikh, Aziz

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Asthma is now one of the most common long-term conditions in the UK. It is therefore important to develop a comprehensive appreciation of the healthcare and societal costs in order to inform decisions on care provision and planning. We plan to build on our earlier estimates of national prevalence and costs from asthma by filling the data gaps previously identified in relation to healthcare and broadening the field of enquiry to include societal costs. This work will provide the first UK-wide estimates of the costs of asthma. In the context of asthma for the UK and its member countries (ie, England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales), we seek to: (1) produce a detailed overview of estimates of incidence, prevalence and healthcare utilisation; (2) estimate health and societal costs; (3) identify any remaining information gaps and explore the feasibility of filling these and (4) provide insights into future research that has the potential to inform changes in policy leading to the provision of more cost-effective care. Methods and analysis Secondary analyses of data from national health surveys, primary care, prescribing, emergency care, hospital, mortality and administrative data sources will be undertaken to estimate prevalence, healthcare utilisation and outcomes from asthma. Data linkages and economic modelling will be undertaken in an attempt to populate data gaps and estimate costs. Separate prevalence and cost estimates will be calculated for each of the UK-member countries and these will then be aggregated to generate UK-wide estimates. Ethics and dissemination Approvals have been obtained from the NHS Scotland Information Services Division's Privacy Advisory Committee, the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Collaboration Review System, the NHS South-East Scotland Research Ethics Service and The University of Edinburgh's Centre for Population Health Sciences Research Ethics Committee. We will produce a report for Asthma-UK, submit papers to

  17. Rapid detection methods and prevalence estimation for Borrelia lonestari glpQ in Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae) pools of unequal size.

    PubMed

    Bacon, Rendi Murphree; Pilgard, Mark A; Johnson, Barbara J B; Piesman, Joseph; Biggerstaff, Brad J; Quintana, Miguel

    2005-01-01

    DNA was extracted from pools of Amblyomma americanum ticks collected from vegetation at two sites in Fort Leonard Wood, Missouri and tested for the presence of Borrelia spp. Two new methods were developed to detect Borrelia lonestari DNA by targeting the glycerophosphodiester phosphodiesterase (glpQ) gene. The first method detected B. lonestari DNA using a SYBR green I melting curve analysis of the PCR product obtained with glpQ gene primers. The second method, a glpQ TaqMan assay, detected and confirmed the presence of B. lonestari glpQ-specific sequences. Twenty-two of 95 tick pools collected at site A148 contained B. lonestari DNA. None of 19 pools from site A241 contained B. lonestari DNA. No B. burgdorferi sensu lato DNA was detected using a SYBR green I melting curve analysis of the PCR product obtained with outer surface protein A (ospA) primers. The overall B. lonestari infection prevalence (with 95% confidence interval) at site A148 was estimated using two algorithms: minimum infection rate 4.14% (2.45, 5.84) and maximum likelihood with correction 4.82% (3.11, 7.16). The merits of each are discussed. Sequencing of the entire B. lonestari glpQ and partial 16S rRNA genes revealed two genetic variants circulating in this population of A. americanum from Missouri.

  18. Development of Genetic Testing for Fragile X Syndrome and Associated Disorders, and Estimates of the Prevalence of FMR1 Expansion Mutations

    PubMed Central

    Macpherson, James N.; Murray, Anna

    2016-01-01

    The identification of a trinucleotide (CGG) expansion as the chief mechanism of mutation in Fragile X syndrome in 1991 heralded a new chapter in molecular diagnostic genetics and generated a new perspective on mutational mechanisms in human genetic disease, which rapidly became a central paradigm (“dynamic mutation”) as more and more of the common hereditary neurodevelopmental disorders were ascribed to this novel class of mutation. The progressive expansion of a CGG repeat in the FMR1 gene from “premutation” to “full mutation” provided an explanation for the “Sherman paradox,” just as similar expansion mechanisms in other genes explained the phenomenon of “anticipation” in their pathogenesis. Later, FMR1 premutations were unexpectedly found associated with two other distinct phenotypes: primary ovarian insufficiency and tremor-ataxia syndrome. This review will provide a historical perspective on procedures for testing and reporting of Fragile X syndrome and associated disorders, and the population genetics of FMR1 expansions, including estimates of prevalence and the influence of AGG interspersions on the rate and probability of expansion. PMID:27916885

  19. Prevalence of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus (BVDV) in Persistently Infected Cattle and BVDV Subtypes in Affected Cattle in Beef Herds in South Central U.S.

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The prevalence of bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) persistently infected (PI) cattle in beef breeding herds was determined in 30 herds with 4530 calves. The samples collected by ear notches were tested for BVDV antigen using immunohistochemistry (IHC) and antigen capture ELISA (ACE). Animals wit...

  20. Smoking prevalence amongst UK Armed Forces recruits: changes in behaviour after 3 years follow-up and factors affecting smoking behaviour.

    PubMed

    Bray, Isabelle; Richardson, P; Harrison, K

    2013-03-01

    OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to investigate smoking prevalence of Tri-Service recruits, and changes in smoking behaviour at 3-year follow-up, by trade group and gender. Associations with educational attainment and deprivation were also assessed. METHODS: Analysis of a survey into the health behaviours of 10 531 recruits in 1998/1999. A follow-up 3 years later measured changes in behaviour. Correlation and multiple regression was used to investigate the relationship between smoking prevalence in each trade group and both educational attainment and deprivation, using Index of Multiple Deprivation 2004 (IMD 2004) scores. RESULTS: Army recruits exhibited a significantly higher smoking prevalence (45%) than Royal Navy recruits (34%) and Royal Air Force (RAF) recruits (31%). There were marked differences between smoking levels amongst officer cadets (12%, 20% and 10% in the Navy, Army and RAF, respectively) and other rank trade groups (24-56%), with the exception of the Marines (13%). At follow up, smoking had generally increased, and in some parts of the infantry had risen to 66%. There was a clear correlation between smoking at enlistment and both educational attainment (correlation coefficient=0.7, p<0.005) and deprivation score (correlation coefficient=0.8, p<0.005). CONCLUSIONS: There were clear differences between Services, rank and trade groups in smoking prevalence at recruitment. Smoking levels increased in the 3 years after recruitment to the Armed Forces. Deprivation was more important than educational attainment in determining the smoking status of recruits.

  1. The Prevalence of Sexual Behavior Stigma Affecting Gay Men and Other Men Who Have Sex with Men Across Sub-Saharan Africa and in the United States

    PubMed Central

    Sanchez, Travis Howard; Sullivan, Patrick Sean; Ketende, Sosthenes; Lyons, Carrie; Charurat, Manhattan E; Drame, Fatou Maria; Diouf, Daouda; Ezouatchi, Rebecca; Kouanda, Seni; Anato, Simplice; Mothopeng, Tampose; Mnisi, Zandile; Baral, Stefan David

    2016-01-01

    Background There has been increased attention for the need to reduce stigma related to sexual behaviors among gay men and other men who have sex with men (MSM) as part of comprehensive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention and treatment programming. However, most studies focused on measuring and mitigating stigma have been in high-income settings, challenging the ability to characterize the transferability of these findings because of lack of consistent metrics across settings. Objective The objective of these analyses is to describe the prevalence of sexual behavior stigma in the United States, and to compare the prevalence of sexual behavior stigma between MSM in Southern and Western Africa and in the United States using consistent metrics. Methods The same 13 sexual behavior stigma items were administered in face-to-face interviews to 4285 MSM recruited in multiple studies from 2013 to 2016 from 7 Sub-Saharan African countries and to 2590 MSM from the 2015 American Men’s Internet Survey (AMIS), an anonymous Web-based behavioral survey. We limited the study sample to men who reported anal sex with a man at least once in the past 12 months and men who were aged 18 years and older. Unadjusted and adjusted prevalence ratios were used to compare the prevalence of stigma between groups. Results Within the United States, prevalence of sexual behavior stigma did not vary substantially by race/ethnicity or geographic region except in a few instances. Feeling afraid to seek health care, avoiding health care, feeling like police refused to protect, being blackmailed, and being raped were more commonly reported in rural versus urban settings in the United States (P<.05 for all). In the United States, West Africa, and Southern Africa, MSM reported verbal harassment as the most common form of stigma. Disclosure of same-sex practices to family members increased prevalence of reported stigma from family members within all geographic settings (P<.001 for all). After

  2. Prevalence and estimation of hepatitis B and C infections in the WHO European Region: a review of data focusing on the countries outside the European Union and the European Free Trade Association.

    PubMed

    Hope, V D; Eramova, I; Capurro, D; Donoghoe, M C

    2014-02-01

    Knowledge of hepatitis B and C prevalence, and numbers infected, are important for planning responses. Published HBsAg and anti-HCV prevalences for the 20 WHO European Region countries outside the EU/EFTA were extracted, to complement published data for the EU/EFTA. The general population prevalence of HBsAg (median 3·8%, mean 5·0%, seven countries) ranged from 1·3% (Ukraine) to 13% (Uzbekistan), and anti-HCV (median 2·3%, mean 3·8%, 10 countries) from 0·5% (Serbia, Tajikistan) to 13% (Uzbekistan). People who inject drugs had the highest prevalence of both infections (HBsAg: median 6·8%, mean 8·2%, 13 countries; anti-HCV: median 46%, mean 46%, 17 countries), and prevalence was also elevated in men who have sex with men and sex workers. Simple estimates indicated 13·3 million (1·8%) adults have HBsAg and 15·0 million (2·0%) HCV RNA in the WHO European Region; prevalences were higher outside the EU/EFTA countries. Efforts to prevent, diagnose, and treat these infections need to be maintained and improved. This article may not be reprinted or reused in any way in order to promote any commercial products or services.

  3. Estimating Upper Bounds for Occupancy and Number of Manatees in Areas Potentially Affected by Oil from the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

    PubMed Central

    Martin, Julien; Edwards, Holly H.; Bled, Florent; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.; Dupuis, Jérôme A.; Gardner, Beth; Koslovsky, Stacie M.; Aven, Allen M.; Ward-Geiger, Leslie I.; Carmichael, Ruth H.; Fagan, Daniel E.; Ross, Monica A.; Reinert, Thomas R.

    2014-01-01

    The explosion of the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform created the largest marine oil spill in U.S. history. As part of the Natural Resource Damage Assessment process, we applied an innovative modeling approach to obtain upper estimates for occupancy and for number of manatees in areas potentially affected by the oil spill. Our data consisted of aerial survey counts in waters of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama and Mississippi. Our method, which uses a Bayesian approach, allows for the propagation of uncertainty associated with estimates from empirical data and from the published literature. We illustrate that it is possible to derive estimates of occupancy rate and upper estimates of the number of manatees present at the time of sampling, even when no manatees were observed in our sampled plots during surveys. We estimated that fewer than 2.4% of potentially affected manatee habitat in our Florida study area may have been occupied by manatees. The upper estimate for the number of manatees present in potentially impacted areas (within our study area) was estimated with our model to be 74 (95%CI 46 to 107). This upper estimate for the number of manatees was conditioned on the upper 95%CI value of the occupancy rate. In other words, based on our estimates, it is highly probable that there were 107 or fewer manatees in our study area during the time of our surveys. Because our analyses apply to habitats considered likely manatee habitats, our inference is restricted to these sites and to the time frame of our surveys. Given that manatees may be hard to see during aerial surveys, it was important to account for imperfect detection. The approach that we described can be useful for determining the best allocation of resources for monitoring and conservation. PMID:24670971

  4. Estimating upper bounds for occupancy and number of manatees in areas potentially affected by oil from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

    PubMed

    Martin, Julien; Edwards, Holly H; Bled, Florent; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J; Dupuis, Jérôme A; Gardner, Beth; Koslovsky, Stacie M; Aven, Allen M; Ward-Geiger, Leslie I; Carmichael, Ruth H; Fagan, Daniel E; Ross, Monica A; Reinert, Thomas R

    2014-01-01

    The explosion of the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform created the largest marine oil spill in U.S. history. As part of the Natural Resource Damage Assessment process, we applied an innovative modeling approach to obtain upper estimates for occupancy and for number of manatees in areas potentially affected by the oil spill. Our data consisted of aerial survey counts in waters of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama and Mississippi. Our method, which uses a Bayesian approach, allows for the propagation of uncertainty associated with estimates from empirical data and from the published literature. We illustrate that it is possible to derive estimates of occupancy rate and upper estimates of the number of manatees present at the time of sampling, even when no manatees were observed in our sampled plots during surveys. We estimated that fewer than 2.4% of potentially affected manatee habitat in our Florida study area may have been occupied by manatees. The upper estimate for the number of manatees present in potentially impacted areas (within our study area) was estimated with our model to be 74 (95%CI 46 to 107). This upper estimate for the number of manatees was conditioned on the upper 95%CI value of the occupancy rate. In other words, based on our estimates, it is highly probable that there were 107 or fewer manatees in our study area during the time of our surveys. Because our analyses apply to habitats considered likely manatee habitats, our inference is restricted to these sites and to the time frame of our surveys. Given that manatees may be hard to see during aerial surveys, it was important to account for imperfect detection. The approach that we described can be useful for determining the best allocation of resources for monitoring and conservation.

  5. Age- and time-dependent prevalence and incidence of hepatitis C virus infection in drug users in France, 2004-2011: model-based estimation from two national cross-sectional serosurveys.

    PubMed

    Leon, L; Kasereka, S; Barin, F; Larsen, C; Weill-Barillet, L; Pascal, X; Chevaliez, S; Pillonel, J; Jauffret-Roustide, M; LE Strat, Y

    2017-04-01

    Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a public health issue worldwide. Injecting drug use remains the major mode of transmission in developed countries. Monitoring the HCV transmission dynamic over time is crucial, especially to assess the effect of harm reduction measures in drug users (DU). Our objective was to estimate the prevalence and incidence of HCV infection in DU in France using data from a repeated cross-sectional survey conducted in 2004 and 2011. Age- and time-dependent HCV prevalence was estimated through logistic regression models adjusted for HIV serostatus or injecting practices. HCV incidence was estimated from a mathematical model linking prevalence and incidence. HCV prevalence decreased from 58·2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 49·7-66·8] in 2004 to 43·2% (95% CI 38·8-47·7) in 2011. HCV incidence decreased from 7·9/100 person-years (95% CI 6·4-9·4) in 2004 to 4·4/100 person-years (95% CI 3·3-5·9) in 2011. HCV prevalence and incidence were significantly associated with age, calendar time, HIV serostatus and injecting practices. In 2011, the highest estimated incidence was in active injecting DU (11·2/100 person-years). Given the forthcoming objective of generalizing access to new direct antiviral agents for HCV infection, our results contribute to decision-making and policy development regarding treatment scale-up and disease prevention in the DU population.

  6. Estimating benthic secondary production from aquatic insect emergence in streams affected by mountaintop removal coal mining, West Virginia USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Mountaintop removal and valley fill (MTR/VF) coal mining recountours the Appalachian landscape, buries headwater stream channels, and degrades downstream water quality. The goal of this study was to compare benthic community production estimates, based on seasonal insect emergen...

  7. Comparison of the information provided by electronic health records data and a population health survey to estimate prevalence of selected health conditions and multimorbidity

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Health surveys (HS) are a well-established methodology for measuring the health status of a population. The relative merit of using information based on HS versus electronic health records (EHR) to measure multimorbidity has not been established. Our study had two objectives: 1) to measure and compare the prevalence and distribution of multimorbidity in HS and EHR data, and 2) to test specific hypotheses about potential differences between HS and EHR reporting of diseases with a symptoms-based diagnosis and those requiring diagnostic testing. Methods Cross-sectional study using data from a periodic HS conducted by the Catalan government and from EHR covering 80% of the Catalan population aged 15 years and older. We determined the prevalence of 27 selected health conditions in both data sources, calculated the prevalence and distribution of multimorbidity (defined as the presence of ≥2 of the selected conditions), and determined multimorbidity patterns. We tested two hypotheses: a) health conditions requiring diagnostic tests for their diagnosis and management would be more prevalent in the EHR; and b) symptoms-based health problems would be more prevalent in the HS data. Results We analysed 15,926 HS interviews and 1,597,258 EHRs. The profile of the EHR sample was 52% women, average age 47 years (standard deviation: 18.8), and 68% having at least one of the selected health conditions, the 3 most prevalent being hypertension (20%), depression or anxiety (16%) and mental disorders (15%). Multimorbidity was higher in HS than in EHR data (60% vs. 43%, respectively, for ages 15-75+, P <0.001, and 91% vs. 83% in participants aged ≥65 years, P <0.001). The most prevalent multimorbidity cluster was cardiovascular. Circulation disorders (other than varicose veins), chronic allergies, neck pain, haemorrhoids, migraine or frequent headaches and chronic constipation were more prevalent in the HS. Most symptomatic conditions (71%) had a higher prevalence in

  8. Bayesian approach to potency estimation for aquatic toxicology experiments when a toxicant affects both fecundity and survival.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Jing; Bailer, A John; Oris, James T

    2012-08-01

    Chemicals in aquatic systems may impact a variety of endpoints including mortality, growth, or reproduction. Clearly, growth or reproduction will only be observed in organisms that survive. Because it is common to observe mortality in studies focusing on the reproduction of organisms, especially in higher concentration conditions, the resulting observed numbers of young become a mixture of zeroes and positive counts. Zeroes are recorded for organisms that die before having any young and living organisms with no offspring. Positive counts are recorded for living organisms with offspring. Thus, responses reflect both fecundity and mortality of the organisms used in such tests. In the present study, the authors propose the estimation of the concentration associated with a specified level of reproductive inhibition (RIp) using a Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model. This approach allows any prior information and expert knowledge about the model parameters to be incorporated into the regression coefficients or RIp estimation. Simulation studies are conducted to compare the Bayesian ZIP regression model and classical methods. The Bayesian estimator outperforms the frequentist alternative by producing more precise point estimates with smaller mean square differences between RIp estimates and true values, narrower interval estimates with better coverage probabilities. The authors also applied their proposed model to a study of Ceriodaphnia dubia exposed to a test toxicant.

  9. Prevalence of Metabolic Syndrome and Affecting Factors among Individuals Aged 30 and over in Balçova District of İzmir

    PubMed Central

    Soysal, Ahmet; Şimşek, Hatice; Doğanay, Sinem; Günay, Türkan

    2016-01-01

    Background: The studies have shown that metabolic syndrome (MetS) leads to an increase twice as much in cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and four times as much in diabetes mellitus (DM) prevalence since the second half of the 20th century. Aims: This study aims to determine and discuss the prevalence of the MetS and co- factors among individuals at the age of 30 and over in Balcova district of İzmir province according to the American National Cholesterol Education Program - Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III) and InternationalDiabetes Federation (IDF) criteria. Study Design: Cross-sectional study. Methods: Data obtained from the Balcova Heart Project in İzmir were used in the study. The dependent variable of the study is MetS existence. The independent variables were socio-demographic characteristics (age, gender, education level, and marital status), self-perceived economic status, physical activity, smoking status, healthy nutrition and body mass index (BMI). Results: The prevalence of MetS was 36.9% according to the diagnostic criteria of IDF, while it was 27.4% according to ATP III criteria. According to the both criteria, increasing age, low education, poor economic status perception, physical inactivity, and obesity increase the risk of MetS. Apart from the IDF criteria, being female and a current smoker increase the risk of the MetS in the NCEP-ATP III. Conclusion: Compared to educational studies of MetS as of today, which are community and health-oriented studies, it is challenging that the prevalence of MetS was found to be high for both criteria in our study. Therefore, in particular, primary health care doctors must be prompted to protect the public against DM and CVD in particular. PMID:27308078

  10. Use of portable antennas to estimate abundance of PIT-tagged fish in small streams: Factors affecting detection probability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Horton, Gregg E.; Letcher, Benjamin H.

    2010-01-01

    Portable passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag antenna systems can be valuable in providing reliable estimates of the abundance of tagged Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in small streams under a wide range of conditions. We developed and employed PIT tag antenna wand techniques in two controlled experiments and an additional case study to examine the factors that influenced our ability to estimate population size. We used Pollock's robust-design capture–mark–recapture model to obtain estimates of the probability of first detection (p), the probability of redetection (c), and abundance (N) in the two controlled experiments. First, we conducted an experiment in which tags were hidden in fixed locations. Although p and c varied among the three observers and among the three passes that each observer conducted, the estimates of N were identical to the true values and did not vary among observers. In the second experiment using free-swimming tagged fish, p and c varied among passes and time of day. Additionally, estimates of N varied between day and night and among age-classes but were within 10% of the true population size. In the case study, we used the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model to examine the variation in p, and we compared counts of tagged fish found with the antenna wand with counts collected via electrofishing. In that study, we found that although p varied for age-classes, sample dates, and time of day, antenna and electrofishing estimates of N were similar, indicating that population size can be reliably estimated via PIT tag antenna wands. However, factors such as the observer, time of day, age of fish, and stream discharge can influence the initial and subsequent detection probabilities.

  11. The Prevalence of Syphilis in England and Wales on the Eve of the Great War: Re-visiting the Estimates of the Royal Commission on Venereal Diseases 1913–1916

    PubMed Central

    Szreter, Simon

    2014-01-01

    Public fears of widespread venereal disease led in 1913 to the appointment of The Royal Commission on Venereal Diseases (RCVD). In 1916 its Final Report offered only a single cautious and somewhat imprecise summary statement about the likely prevalence of venereal diseases in England and Wales. Although the significance of contemporary attitudes to venereal disease has attracted a good deal of historiographic attention, no historian or demographer has since investigated this aspect of the Royal Commission's work. This article critically re-examines the most important quantitative evidence presented to the Royal Commission relating to the years immediately prior to the First World War. It utilises this evidence to produce new estimates of the probable prevalence of syphilis among adult males, both nationally and among certain geographical divisions and social groups in the national population; and also to offer a comment on the likely prevalence of gonorrhoea. PMID:25067890

  12. The Prevalence of Syphilis in England and Wales on the Eve of the Great War: Re-visiting the Estimates of the Royal Commission on Venereal Diseases 1913-1916.

    PubMed

    Szreter, Simon

    2014-08-01

    Public fears of widespread venereal disease led in 1913 to the appointment of The Royal Commission on Venereal Diseases (RCVD). In 1916 its Final Report offered only a single cautious and somewhat imprecise summary statement about the likely prevalence of venereal diseases in England and Wales. Although the significance of contemporary attitudes to venereal disease has attracted a good deal of historiographic attention, no historian or demographer has since investigated this aspect of the Royal Commission's work. This article critically re-examines the most important quantitative evidence presented to the Royal Commission relating to the years immediately prior to the First World War. It utilises this evidence to produce new estimates of the probable prevalence of syphilis among adult males, both nationally and among certain geographical divisions and social groups in the national population; and also to offer a comment on the likely prevalence of gonorrhoea.

  13. Residual analysis in the determination of factors affecting the estimates of body heat storage in clothed subjects.

    PubMed

    Aoyagi, Y; McLellan, T M; Shephard, R J

    1996-01-01

    Body heat storage can be estimated by calorimetry (from heat gains and losses) or by thermometry [from changes (delta) in mean body temperature (T b) calculated as a weighted combination of rectal (Tre) and mean skin temperatures (T sk)]. If an invariant weighting factor of Tre and T sk were to be used (for instance, delta T b = 0.8.delta Tre + 0.2 delta T sk under hot conditions), body heat storage could be over- or underestimated substantially relative to calorimetry, depending on whether the subject was wearing light or protective clothing. This study investigated whether discrepancies between calorimetry and thermometry arise from methodological errors in the calorimetric estimate of heat storage, from inappropriate weightings in the thermometric estimate, or from both. Residuals of calorimetry versus thermometric estimates were plotted against individual variables in the standard heat balance equation, applying various weighting factors to Tre and T sk. Whether light or protective clothing was worn, the calorimetric approach generally gave appropriate estimates of heat exchange components and thus heat storage. One exception was in estimating latent heat loss from sweat evaporation. If sweat evaporation exceeded 650 g.h-1 when wearing normal clothing, evaporative heat loss was overestimated and thus body heat storage was underestimated. Nevertheless, if data beyond this ceiling were excluded from the analyses, the standard 4:1 weighting matched calorimetric heat storage estimates quite well. When wearing protective clothing, the same 4:1 weighting approximated calorimetric heat storage with errors of less than approximately 10%, but only if environmental conditions allowed a subject to exercise for more than 90 min. The best thermometric estimates of heat storage were provided by using two sets of relative weightings, based upon the individual's metabolic heat production (M in kilojoules per meter squared per hour): (4 - [(M - x).x-1].2): 1 for an initial

  14. Variable Autosomal and X Divergence Near and Far from Genes Affects Estimates of Male Mutation Bias in Great Apes.

    PubMed

    Narang, Pooja; Wilson Sayres, Melissa A

    2016-12-31

    Male mutation bias, when more mutations are passed on via the male germline than via the female germline, is observed across mammals. One common way to infer the magnitude of male mutation bias, α, is to compare levels of neutral sequence divergence between genomic regions that spend different amounts of time in the male and female germline. For great apes, including human, we show that estimates of divergence are reduced in putatively unconstrained regions near genes relative to unconstrained regions far from genes. Divergence increases with increasing distance from genes on both the X chromosome and autosomes, but increases faster on the X chromosome than autosomes. As a result, ratios of X/A divergence increase with increasing distance from genes and corresponding estimates of male mutation bias are significantly higher in intergenic regions near genes versus far from genes. Future studies in other species will need to carefully consider the effect that genomic location will have on estimates of male mutation bias.

  15. Affective Disorders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beach, Steven R. H.; Whisman, Mark A.

    2012-01-01

    Depression is a heterogeneous disorder with lifetime prevalence of "major depressive disorder" estimated to be 16.2%. Although the disorder is common and impairs functioning, it often goes untreated, with less than adequate response even when treated. We review research indicating the likely value of utilizing currently available, well-validated,…

  16. Knowledge on the line: manipulating beliefs about the magnitudes of symbolic numbers affects the linearity of line estimation tasks.

    PubMed

    Chesney, Dana L; Matthews, Percival G

    2013-12-01

    It has been suggested that differences in performance on number-line estimation tasks are indicative of fundamental differences in people's underlying representations of numerical magnitude. However, we were able to induce logarithmic-looking performance in adults for magnitude ranges over which they can typically perform linearly by manipulating their familiarity with the symbolic number formats that we used for the stimuli. This serves as an existence proof that individuals' performances on number-line estimation tasks do not necessarily reflect the functional form of their underlying numerical magnitude representations. Rather, performance differences may result from symbolic difficulties (i.e., number-to-symbol mappings), independently of the underlying functional form. We demonstrated that number-line estimates that are well fit by logarithmic functions need not be produced by logarithmic functions. These findings led us to question the validity of considering logarithmic-looking performance on number-line estimation tasks as being indicative that magnitudes are being represented logarithmically, particularly when symbolic understanding is in question.

  17. Prevalence of Mental Disorders in the South-East of Spain, One of the European Regions Most Affected by the Economic Crisis: The Cross-Sectional PEGASUS-Murcia Project

    PubMed Central

    Navarro-Mateu, Fernando; Tormo, Mª José; Salmerón, Diego; Vilagut, Gemma; Navarro, Carmen; Ruíz-Merino, Guadalupe; Escámez, Teresa; Júdez, Javier; Martínez, Salvador; Kessler, Ron C.; Alonso, Jordi

    2015-01-01

    estimates for Spain. Prevalence was strongly associated with exposure to stressors related to the economic crisis. PMID:26394150

  18. Estimation of axial curvature of anterior sclera: correlation between axial length and anterior scleral curvature as affected by angle kappa.

    PubMed

    Lee, Sang-Mok; Choi, Hyuk Jin; Choi, Heejin; Kim, Mee Kum; Wee, Won Ryang

    2016-10-07

    BACKGROUND: Though the development and fitting of scleral contact lenses are expanding steadily, there is no simple method to provide scleral metrics for scleral contact lens fitting yet. The aim of this study was to establish formulae for estimation of the axial radius of curvature (ARC) of the anterior sclera using ocular biometric parameters that can be easily obtained with conventional devices.

  19. Variable Autosomal and X Divergence Near and Far from Genes Affects Estimates of Male Mutation Bias in Great Apes

    PubMed Central

    Narang, Pooja; Wilson Sayres, Melissa A.

    2016-01-01

    Male mutation bias, when more mutations are passed on via the male germline than via the female germline, is observed across mammals. One common way to infer the magnitude of male mutation bias, α, is to compare levels of neutral sequence divergence between genomic regions that spend different amounts of time in the male and female germline. For great apes, including human, we show that estimates of divergence are reduced in putatively unconstrained regions near genes relative to unconstrained regions far from genes. Divergence increases with increasing distance from genes on both the X chromosome and autosomes, but increases faster on the X chromosome than autosomes. As a result, ratios of X/A divergence increase with increasing distance from genes and corresponding estimates of male mutation bias are significantly higher in intergenic regions near genes versus far from genes. Future studies in other species will need to carefully consider the effect that genomic location will have on estimates of male mutation bias. PMID:27702816

  20. Deposition of 7Be to Bermuda and the regional ocean: Environmental factors affecting estimates of atmospheric flux to the ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kadko, David; Prospero, Joseph

    2011-02-01

    The distribution of 7Be in ocean surface waters is used as tracer of upper ocean transport and atmospheric deposition processes. However, there is very little ocean deposition data available to characterize the temporal and spatial input of 7Be to the oceans and test model results. Here we measure the deposition of 7Be in bulk collectors at two sites at Bermuda over a span of nearly 2 years (April 2007 to January 2009) and compare these rates to the flux required to sustain the inventory of 7Be measured in the nearby Sargasso Sea. The Tudor Hill collector site undersampled (by ˜40%) both the rainfall compared to other Bermuda sites and the 7Be flux required for the ocean inventory. On the other hand, the 7Be flux captured at the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences station site (0.048 dpm cm-2 d-1) matched that expected from the ocean observations. Previously measured long-term atmospheric concentration of 7Be in surface air at Bermuda was used to estimate deposition velocities and scavenging ratios, and our estimates in this marine environment were found to be similar to those measured in continental regions. The deposition of 7Be to the oceans is overwhelmingly determined by wet processes; dry deposition to the ocean surface accounts for only a few percent, at most, of the total deposition to the ocean. We place these measurements in a longer-term and large-scale spatial context by using climatological rainfall data on Bermuda and ocean rainfall estimates from the Global Precipitation Climatology Program and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission.

  1. Are introspective reaction times affected by the method of time estimation? A comparison of visual analogue scales and reproduction.

    PubMed

    Bryce, Donna; Bratzke, Daniel

    2015-04-01

    In this study, we investigated whether the method of time estimation plays a role in the apparent limits of introspection in dual-task processing. Previous studies showed that when participants reported introspective reaction times after each trial of a dual task by clicking on a visual analogue scale, they appeared to be unaware of the dual-task costs in their performance. However, visual analogue scales have seldom been used in interval estimation, and they may be inappropriate. In the present study, after each dual-task trial, participants reported their introspective reaction times either via a visual analogue scale or via the method of reproduction. The results replicated the previous findings, irrespective of method. That is, even though responses to the second task slowed down with increasing task overlap, this slowing was only very weakly reflected in the introspective reaction times. Thus, the participants' failure to report the objective dual-task costs in their reaction times is a rather robust finding that cannot be attributed to the method employed. However, introspective reaction times reported via visual analogue scales were more closely related to the objective reaction times, suggesting that visual analogue scales are preferable to reproduction. We conclude that introspective reaction times represent the same information regardless of method, but whether that information is temporal in nature is as yet unsettled.

  2. Using Different Measures, Informants, and Clinical Cut-Off Points to Estimate Prevalence of Emotional or Behavioral Disorders in Preschoolers: Effects on Age, Gender, and Ethnicity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Feil, Edward G.; Small, Jason W.; Forness, Steven R.; Serna, Loretta R.; Kaiser, Ann P.; Hancock, Terry B.; Brooks-Gunn, Jeanne; Bryant, Donna; Kuperschmidt, Janis; Burchinal, Margaret R.; Boyce, Cheryl A.; Lopez, Michael L.

    2005-01-01

    The early identification and remediation of emotional or behavior disorders are high priorities for early-childhood researchers and are based on the assumption that problems such as school failure can be averted with early screening, prevention, and intervention. Presently, prevalence, severity, and topography of mental health needs among…

  3. Bayesian estimation of true prevalence, sensitivity and specificity of indirect ELISA, Rose Bengal Test and Slow Agglutination Test for the diagnosis of brucellosis in sheep and goats in Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Rahman, A K M Anisur; Saegerman, Claude; Berkvens, Dirk; Fretin, David; Gani, Md Osman; Ershaduzzaman, Md; Ahmed, Muzahed Uddin; Emmanuel, Abatih

    2013-06-01

    The true prevalence of brucellosis and diagnostic test characteristics of three conditionally dependent serological tests were estimated using the Bayesian approach in goats and sheep populations of Bangladesh. Serum samples from a random selection of 636 goats and 1044 sheep were tested in parallel by indirect ELISA (iELISA), Rose Bengal Test (RBT) and Slow Agglutination Test (SAT). The true prevalence of brucellosis in goats and sheep were estimated as 1% (95% credibility interval (CrI): 0.7-1.8) and 1.2% (95% CrI: 0.6-2.2) respectively. The sensitivity of iELISA was 92.9% in goats and 92.0% in sheep with corresponding specificities of 96.5% and 99.5% respectively. The sensitivity and specificity estimates of RBT were 80.2% and 99.6% in goats and 82.8% and 98.3% in sheep. The sensitivity and specificity of SAT were 57.1% and 99.3% in goats and 72.0% and 98.6% in sheep. In this study, three conditionally dependent serological tests for the diagnosis of small ruminant brucellosis in Bangladesh were validated. Considerable conditional dependence between IELISA and RBT and between RBT and SAT was observed among sheep. The influence of the priors on the model fit and estimated parameter values was checked using sensitivity analysis. In multiple test validation, conditional dependence should not be ignored when the tests are in fact conditionally dependent.

  4. Higher prevalence of autoimmune diseases and longer spells of vertigo in patients affected with familial Ménière's disease: A clinical comparison of familial and sporadic Ménière's disease.

    PubMed

    Hietikko, Elina; Sorri, Martti; Männikkö, Minna; Kotimäki, Jouko

    2014-06-01

    PURPOSE This study compared clinical features, predisposing factors, and concomitant diseases between sporadic and familial Ménière's disease (MD). METHOD Retrospective chart review and postal questionnaire were used. Participants were 250 definite patients with MD (sporadic, n =149; familial, n = 101) who fulfilled the American Academy of Otorhinolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery (1995) criteria. RESULTS On average, familial patients were affected 5.6 years earlier than sporadic patients, and they suffered from significantly longer spells of vertigo (p = .007). The prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis (p = .002) and other autoimmune diseases (p = .046) was higher among the familial patients, who also had more migraine (p = .036) and hearing impairment (p = .002) in their families. CONCLUSION The clinical features of familial and sporadic MD are very similar in general, but some differences do exist. Familial MD patients are affected earlier and suffer from longer spells of vertigo.

  5. Comparison of two methods for estimating discharge and nutrient loads from Tidally affected reaches of the Myakka and Peace Rivers, West-Central Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Levesque, V.A.; Hammett, K.M.

    1997-01-01

    The Myakka and Peace River Basins constitute more than 60 percent of the total inflow area and contribute more than half the total tributary inflow to the Charlotte Harbor estuarine system. Water discharge and nutrient enrichment have been identified as significant concerns in the estuary, and consequently, it is important to accurately estimate the magnitude of discharges and nutrient loads transported by inflows from both rivers. Two methods for estimating discharge and nutrient loads from tidally affected reaches of the Myakka and Peace Rivers were compared. The first method was a tidal-estimation method, in which discharge and nutrient loads were estimated based on stage, water-velocity, discharge, and water-quality data collected near the mouths of the rivers. The second method was a traditional basin-ratio method in which discharge and nutrient loads at the mouths were estimated from discharge and loads measured at upstream stations. Stage and water-velocity data were collected near the river mouths by submersible instruments, deployed in situ, and discharge measurements were made with an acoustic Doppler current profiler. The data collected near the mouths of the Myakka River and Peace River were filtered, using a low-pass filter, to remove daily mixed-tide effects with periods less than about 2 days. The filtered data from near the river mouths were used to calculate daily mean discharge and nutrient loads. These tidal-estimation-method values were then compared to the basin-ratio-method values. Four separate 30-day periods of differing streamflow conditions were chosen for monitoring and comparison. Discharge and nutrient load estimates computed from the tidal-estimation and basin-ratio methods were most similar during high-flow periods. However, during high flow, the values computed from the tidal-estimation method for the Myakka and Peace Rivers were consistently lower than the values computed from the basin-ratio method. There were substantial

  6. Estimation and testing of the relative risk of disease in case-control studies with a set of k matched controls per case with known prevalence of disease.

    PubMed

    Moser, Barry Kurt; Halabi, Susan

    2012-01-13

    The analysis of case-control studies with matched controls per case is well documented in the medical literature. Of primary interest is the estimation of the relative risk of disease. Matched case-control studies fall into two scenarios: the probability of exposure is constant within each of the case and control groups, or the probability of exposure varies within each group. Numerous estimation procedures have been developed for both scenarios. Often these procedures are developed under the rare disease assumption, where the relative risk of disease is approximated by the odds ratio. In this paper, without making the rare disease assumption, we develop consistent estimators of the relative risk of disease for both scenarios. Exact derivations of the relative risk of disease are provided. Estimators, confidence intervals, and test statistics for the relative risk of disease are developed. We then make the following observations based on extensive simulations. First, our estimators are as close or closer to the relative risk of disease than other estimators. Second, our estimators produce mean square errors for the relative risk of disease that are as good as or better than these other estimators. Third, our confidence intervals provide accurate coverage probabilities. Therefore, these new estimators, confidence intervals, and test statistics can be used to either estimate or test the relative risk of disease in matched case-control studies.

  7. Heavy metals effects on forage crops yields and estimation of elements accumulation in plants as affected by soil.

    PubMed

    Grytsyuk, N; Arapis, G; Perepelyatnikova, L; Ivanova, T; Vynograds'ka, V

    2006-02-01

    Heavy metals (Cu, Cd, Pb, Zn) effect on the productivity of forage crops (clover and perennial cereal grasses) and their accumulation in plants, depending on the concentration of these elements in a soil, has been studied in micro-field experiments on three types of soil. The principle objective was to determine regularities of heavy metals migration in a soil-plant system aiming the estimation of permissible levels of heavy metals content in soils with the following elaboration of methods, which regulate the toxicants transfer to plants. Methods of field experiments, agrochemical and atomic absorption analysis were used. Results were statistically treated by Statistica 6.0, S-Plus 6. Experimental results have shown that the intensity of heavy metals accumulation in plants depends on the type of the soil, the species of plants, the physicochemical properties of heavy metals and their content in the soil. Logarithmic interdependency of heavy metals concentration in soils and their accumulation in plants is suggested. However, the strong correlation between the different heavy metals concentrations in the various soils and the yield of crops was not observed. Toxicants accumulation in crops decreased in time.

  8. Specification and estimation of sources of bias affecting neurological studies in PET/MR with an anatomical brain phantom

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teuho, J.; Johansson, J.; Linden, J.; Saunavaara, V.; Tolvanen, T.; Teräs, M.

    2014-01-01

    Selection of reconstruction parameters has an effect on the image quantification in PET, with an additional contribution from a scanner-specific attenuation correction method. For achieving comparable results in inter- and intra-center comparisons, any existing quantitative differences should be identified and compensated for. In this study, a comparison between PET, PET/CT and PET/MR is performed by using an anatomical brain phantom, to identify and measure the amount of bias caused due to differences in reconstruction and attenuation correction methods especially in PET/MR. Differences were estimated by using visual, qualitative and quantitative analysis. The qualitative analysis consisted of a line profile analysis for measuring the reproduction of anatomical structures and the contribution of the amount of iterations to image contrast. The quantitative analysis consisted of measurement and comparison of 10 anatomical VOIs, where the HRRT was considered as the reference. All scanners reproduced the main anatomical structures of the phantom adequately, although the image contrast on the PET/MR was inferior when using a default clinical brain protocol. Image contrast was improved by increasing the amount of iterations from 2 to 5 while using 33 subsets. Furthermore, a PET/MR-specific bias was detected, which resulted in underestimation of the activity values in anatomical structures closest to the skull, due to the MR-derived attenuation map that ignores the bone. Thus, further improvements for the PET/MR reconstruction and attenuation correction could be achieved by optimization of RAMLA-specific reconstruction parameters and implementation of bone to the attenuation template.

  9. Measuring IPDE-SQ personality disorder prevalence in pre-sentence and early-stage prison populations, with sub-type estimates.

    PubMed

    Slade, Karen; Forrester, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the prevalence and type of personality disorder within prison systems allows for the effective targeting of resources to implement strategies to alleviate symptoms, manage behaviour and attempt to reduce re-offending. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of personality disorder (PD) traits within a local urban high-turnover adult male prison with a remand/recently sentenced population in London, UK. The International Personality Disorder Examination - Screening Questionnaire (IPDE-SQ) self-administered questionnaire (ICD-10 version) was completed by 283 prisoners (42% completion rate). 77% of respondents reached the threshold for one or more PDs. The most common PD types were Paranoid PD (44.5%), Anankastic PD (40.3%), Schizoid PD (35%) and Dissocial PD (25.8%). These results confirm and extend existing knowledge regarding the prevalence of PD in prison populations into a high-turnover, urban, remand population. The stark comparison with community samples indicates that a more equitable standard of service delivery within the criminal justice system, focussing on preventive and early intervention services, is now required.

  10. Estimation of the prevalence of low bone density in Canadian women and men using a population-specific DXA reference standard: the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (CaMos).

    PubMed

    Tenenhouse, A; Joseph, L; Kreiger, N; Poliquin, S; Murray, T M; Blondeau, L; Berger, C; Hanley, D A; Prior, J C

    2000-01-01

    The Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (CaMos) is a prospective cohort study which will measure the incidence and prevalence of osteoporosis and fractures, and the effect of putative risk factors, in a random sample of 10,061 women and men aged > or = 25 years recruited in approximately equal numbers in nine centers across Canada. In this paper we report the results of studies to establish peak bone mass (PBM) which would be appropriate reference data for use in Canada. These reference data are used to estimate the prevalence of osteoporosis and osteopenia in Canadian women and men aged > or = 50 years. Participants were recruited via randomly selected household telephone listings. Bone mineral density (BMD) of the lumbar spine and femoral neck were measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry using Hologic QDR 1000 or 2000 or Lunar DPX densitometers. BMD results for lumbar spine and femoral neck were converted to a Hologic base. BMD of the lumbar spine in 578 women and 467 men was constant to age 39 years giving a PBM of 1.042 +/- 0.121 g/cm2 for women and 1.058 +/- 0.127 g/cm2 for men. BMD at the femoral neck declined from age 29 years. The mean femoral neck BMD between 25 and 29 years was taken as PBM and was found to be 0.857 +/- 0.125 g/cm2 for women and 0.910 +/- 0.125 g/cm2 for men. Prevalence of osteoporosis, as defined by WHO criteria, in Canadian women aged > or = 50 years was 12.1% at the lumbar spine and 7.9% at the femoral neck with a combined prevalence of 15.8%. In men it was 2.9% at the lumbar spine and 4.8% at the femoral neck with a combined prevalence of 6.6%.

  11. Isolation and estimation of the 'aromatic' naphthenic acid content of an oil sands process-affected water extract.

    PubMed

    Jones, David; West, Charles E; Scarlett, Alan G; Frank, Richard A; Rowland, Steven J

    2012-07-20

    The naphthenic acids of oil sands process-affected water (OSPW) are said to be important toxicants. The major acids are stated to have alicyclic structures and recently, numerous of these have been identified, but some evidence suggests 'aromatic' acids are also present. The proportions of such acids have not been reported because they exist in so-called supercomplex mixtures with the alicyclic species. Their contribution to the toxicity of OSPW, if any, is therefore unknown. Here we report the use of multidimensional comprehensive gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC×GC-MS) with polar first dimension and non-polar second dimension GC columns and argentation solid phase extraction, to separate methyl esters of the acids of an OSPW supercomplex, into distinct fractions. A major fraction (ca 70%) was shown to contain acids (methyl esters) previously identified as alicyclic species. Authentic adamantane acid methyl esters were shown to chromatograph in this fraction. This fraction was isolated by argentation solid phase extraction (SPE) by elution with hexane. GC-MS and GC×GC-MS confirmed this to be the major fraction in the original supercomplex containing alicyclic acids (methyl esters). A second fraction shown to contain monoaromatic acids (methyl esters) by GC×GC-MS was unexpectedly abundant (ca 30% relative to the acyclic acids). The naphtheno-aromatic dehydroabietic acid was confirmed by co-injection with an authentic compound and several acids previously tentatively identified as naphtheno-monoaromatics were present. This fraction was isolated by argentation SPE by elution with more polar 5% diethyl ether in hexane. GC-MS and GC×GC-MS confirmed that the fraction represented a significant proportion of the original supercomplex. A further fraction, eluting from the argentation SPE column with more 5% diethyl ether in hexane in the same retention volume as authentic methyl naphthoate, contained, in addition to some of the second fraction, a third, much

  12. Estimation of selected streamflow statistics for a network of low-flow partial-record stations in areas affected by Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) in Maryland

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ries, Kernell G.; Eng, Ken

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Maryland Department of the Environment, operated a network of 20 low-flow partial-record stations during 2008 in a region that extends from southwest of Baltimore to the northeastern corner of Maryland to obtain estimates of selected streamflow statistics at the station locations. The study area is expected to face a substantial influx of new residents and businesses as a result of military and civilian personnel transfers associated with the Federal Base Realignment and Closure Act of 2005. The estimated streamflow statistics, which include monthly 85-percent duration flows, the 10-year recurrence-interval minimum base flow, and the 7-day, 10-year low flow, are needed to provide a better understanding of the availability of water resources in the area to be affected by base-realignment activities. Streamflow measurements collected for this study at the low-flow partial-record stations and measurements collected previously for 8 of the 20 stations were related to concurrent daily flows at nearby index streamgages to estimate the streamflow statistics. Three methods were used to estimate the streamflow statistics and two methods were used to select the index streamgages. Of the three methods used to estimate the streamflow statistics, two of them--the Moments and MOVE1 methods--rely on correlating the streamflow measurements at the low-flow partial-record stations with concurrent streamflows at nearby, hydrologically similar index streamgages to determine the estimates. These methods, recommended for use by the U.S. Geological Survey, generally require about 10 streamflow measurements at the low-flow partial-record station. The third method transfers the streamflow statistics from the index streamgage to the partial-record station based on the average of the ratios of the measured streamflows at the partial-record station to the concurrent streamflows at the index streamgage. This method can be used with as few as

  13. A comparison of Bayesian and non-linear regression methods for robust estimation of pharmacokinetics in DCE-MRI and how it affects cancer diagnosis.

    PubMed

    Dikaios, Nikolaos; Atkinson, David; Tudisca, Chiara; Purpura, Pierpaolo; Forster, Martin; Ahmed, Hashim; Beale, Timothy; Emberton, Mark; Punwani, Shonit

    2017-03-01

    The aim of this work is to compare Bayesian Inference for nonlinear models with commonly used traditional non-linear regression (NR) algorithms for estimating tracer kinetics in Dynamic Contrast Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging (DCE-MRI). The algorithms are compared in terms of accuracy, and reproducibility under different initialization settings. Further it is investigated how a more robust estimation of tracer kinetics affects cancer diagnosis. The derived tracer kinetics from the Bayesian algorithm were validated against traditional NR algorithms (i.e. Levenberg-Marquardt, simplex) in terms of accuracy on a digital DCE phantom and in terms of goodness-of-fit (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) on ROI-based concentration time courses from two different patient cohorts. The first cohort consisted of 76 men, 20 of whom had significant peripheral zone prostate cancer (any cancer-core-length (CCL) with Gleason>3+3 or any-grade with CCL>=4mm) following transperineal template prostate mapping biopsy. The second cohort consisted of 9 healthy volunteers and 24 patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. The diagnostic ability of the derived tracer kinetics was assessed with receiver operating characteristic area under curve (ROC AUC) analysis. The Bayesian algorithm accurately recovered the ground-truth tracer kinetics for the digital DCE phantom consistently improving the Structural Similarity Index (SSIM) across the 50 different initializations compared to NR. For optimized initialization, Bayesian did not improve significantly the fitting accuracy on both patient cohorts, and it only significantly improved the ve ROC AUC on the HN population from ROC AUC=0.56 for the simplex to ROC AUC=0.76. For both cohorts, the values and the diagnostic ability of tracer kinetic parameters estimated with the Bayesian algorithm weren't affected by their initialization. To conclude, the Bayesian algorithm led to a more accurate and reproducible quantification of tracer kinetic

  14. Quality of recording of diabetes in the UK: how does the GP's method of coding clinical data affect incidence estimates? Cross-sectional study using the CPRD database

    PubMed Central

    Tate, A Rosemary; Dungey, Sheena; Glew, Simon; Beloff, Natalia; Williams, Rachael; Williams, Tim

    2017-01-01

    Objective To assess the effect of coding quality on estimates of the incidence of diabetes in the UK between 1995 and 2014. Design A cross-sectional analysis examining diabetes coding from 1995 to 2014 and how the choice of codes (diagnosis codes vs codes which suggest diagnosis) and quality of coding affect estimated incidence. Setting Routine primary care data from 684 practices contributing to the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (data contributed from Vision (INPS) practices). Main outcome measure Incidence rates of diabetes and how they are affected by (1) GP coding and (2) excluding ‘poor’ quality practices with at least 10% incident patients inaccurately coded between 2004 and 2014. Results Incidence rates and accuracy of coding varied widely between practices and the trends differed according to selected category of code. If diagnosis codes were used, the incidence of type 2 increased sharply until 2004 (when the UK Quality Outcomes Framework was introduced), and then flattened off, until 2009, after which they decreased. If non-diagnosis codes were included, the numbers continued to increase until 2012. Although coding quality improved over time, 15% of the 666 practices that contributed data between 2004 and 2014 were labelled ‘poor’ quality. When these practices were dropped from the analyses, the downward trend in the incidence of type 2 after 2009 became less marked and incidence rates were higher. Conclusions In contrast to some previous reports, diabetes incidence (based on diagnostic codes) appears not to have increased since 2004 in the UK. Choice of codes can make a significant difference to incidence estimates, as can quality of recording. Codes and data quality should be checked when assessing incidence rates using GP data. PMID:28122831

  15. Molecular analysis of HEXA gene in Argentinean patients affected with Tay-Sachs disease: possible common origin of the prevalent c.459+5A>G mutation.

    PubMed

    Zampieri, Stefania; Montalvo, Annalisa; Blanco, Mariana; Zanin, Irene; Amartino, Hernan; Vlahovicek, Kristian; Szlago, Marina; Schenone, Andrea; Pittis, Gabriela; Bembi, Bruno; Dardis, Andrea

    2012-05-15

    Tay-Sachs disease (TSD) is a recessively inherited disorder caused by the deficient activity of hexosaminidase A due to mutations in the HEXA gene. Up to date there is no information regarding the molecular genetics of TSD in Argentinean patients. In the present study we have studied 17 Argentinean families affected by TSD, including 20 patients with the acute infantile form and 3 with the sub-acute form. Overall, we identified 14 different mutations accounting for 100% of the studied alleles. Eight mutations were novel: 5 were single base changes leading to drastic residue changes or truncated proteins, 2 were small deletions and one was an intronic mutation that may cause a splicing defect. Although the spectrum of mutations was highly heterogeneous, a high frequency of the c.459+5G>A mutation, previously described in different populations was found among the studied cohort. Haplotype analysis suggested that in these families the c.459+5G>A mutation might have arisen by a single mutational event.

  16. Prevalence of M75 Streptococcus pyogenes Strains Harboring slaA Gene in Patients Affected by Pediatric Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome in Central Italy

    PubMed Central

    Viciani, Elisa; Montagnani, Francesca; Tordini, Giacinta; Romano, Antonio; Salerni, Lorenzo; De Luca, Andrea; Ruggiero, Paolo; Manetti, Andrea G. O.

    2017-01-01

    Recently we reported an association between pediatric obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) and Group A streptococcus (GAS) sub-acute chronic tonsil colonization. We showed that GAS may contribute to tonsil hyperplasia via a streptolysin O (SLO)-dependent cysteinyl leukotrienes (CysLTs) production, which can trigger T and B cell proliferation. In the present study, we characterized the GAS strains isolated from pediatric OSAS patients in comparison with a panel of age and sex matched GAS strains unrelated to OSAS, but isolated in the same area and during the same period ranging from 2009 to 2013. We found that slaA gene, previously reported to be associated to CysLTs production pathway, was significantly associated to GAS OSAS strains. Moreover, the most numerous group (32%) of the GAS OSAS strains belonged to M75 type, and 6 out of 7 of these strains harbored the slaA gene. Multilocus Sequence Typing (MLST) experiments demonstrated that the clone emm75/ST49/ smeZ, slaA was associated to OSAS cases. In conclusion, we found an association between slaA gene and the GAS OSAS strains, and we showed that the clone emm75/ST49 harboring genes smeZ and slaA was exclusively isolated from patients affected by OSAS, thus suggesting that this genotype might be associated to the pathogenesis of OSAS, although further studies are needed to elucidate the possible role of SlaA in tonsil hypertrophy development. PMID:28293224

  17. Tests on the centrifugal flotation technique and its use in estimating the prevalence of Toxocara in soil samples from urban and suburban areas of Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Loh, A G; Israf, D A

    1998-03-01

    The influence of soil texture (silt, sand and laterite) and flotation solutions (saturated NaCl, sucrose, NaNO3, and ZnSO4) upon the recovery of Toxocara ova from seeded soil samples with the centrifugal flotation technique was investigated. Soil samples of different texture were artificially seeded with Toxocara spp. ova and subjected to a centrifugal flotation technique which used various flotation solutions. The results showed significant (P < 0.001) interactions between the soil types and the flotation solutions. The highest percentage of ova recovery was obtained with silty soil (34.9-100.8%) with saturated NaCl as the flotation solution (45.3-100.8%). A combination of washing of soil samples with 0.1% Tween 80, and flotation using saturated NaCl and a 30 min coverslip recovery period was used to study the prevalence of contamination of soil samples. Forty-six soil samples were collected from up to 24 public parks/playgrounds in urban areas of Petaling Jaya and suburban areas of Serdang. The prevalence of Toxocara species in the urban and suburban areas was 54.5% and 45.8% respectively.

  18. An appraisal of the use of meat-juice serology monitoring data for estimating prevalence of cecal Salmonella carriage of pigs at slaughter by means of herd-level and animal-level simulation.

    PubMed

    Barron, Ursula Gonzales; Soumpasis, Ilias; Butler, Francis; Duffy, Geraldine

    2009-02-01

    Some attempts have been made to elucidate the association between positive serology and Salmonella detection by bacterial culture in individual pigs and pig herds. This study aimed to appraise whether the existing knowledge on such association provides grounds for the utilization of serology monitoring data for predicting Salmonella subclinical infection of pigs entering the abattoir. Serology test results of pig carcasses (taken at abattoirs) originating from 436 representative active herds in Ireland were utilized to estimate the overall cecal Salmonella carriage of Irish slaughter pigs. To this effect, two separate simulations were conducted using (i) herd-level regression data and (ii) animal-level sensitivity (0.2890) and specificity (0.8895) data, which were extracted from published articles. The herd-level approach estimated a moderate prevalence of cecal Salmonella carriage of 0.222 (sigma = 0.094; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.069 to 0.431), which matched closely the mean prevalence value from the surveys' validation data of Salmonella-positive cecal samples (n = 1,098) obtained at Irish abattoirs (0.215; 95% CI: 0.192 to 0.240). The animal-level simulation generated an output distribution with slightly more uncertainty (sigma = 0.102 and 95% CI: 0.146 to 0.537) and a higher estimate of cecal carriage (0.312), which was an effect of the low relative sensitivity of serology, common under field conditions. While the herd-level simulation appeared to be technically more appropriate, since its correlation is only moderate, further elucidation of other factors related to subclinical infection should be attained for their incorporation in prospective dynamic on-farm models, which would be useful in the ultimate goal of estimating the risk of carcass contamination during slaughter.

  19. Patient-reported side effects, concerns and adherence to corticosteroid treatment for asthma, and comparison with physician estimates of side-effect prevalence: a UK-wide, cross-sectional study

    PubMed Central

    Cooper, Vanessa; Metcalf, Leanne; Versnel, Jenny; Upton, Jane; Walker, Samantha; Horne, Rob

    2015-01-01

    Background: Non-adherence to corticosteroid treatment has been shown to reduce treatment efficacy, thus compromising asthma control. Aims: To examine the experiences of treatment side effects, treatment concerns and adherence to inhaled (ICS) and oral corticosteroids (OCS) among people with asthma and to identify the degree of concordance between clinician estimates of side effects and the prevalence reported by patients. Methods: Asthma UK members were sent validated questionnaires assessing treatment concerns, experiences of side effects and adherence. Questionnaires measuring clinicians’ estimates of the prevalence of corticosteroid side effects were completed online. Results: Completed questionnaires were returned by 1,524 people taking ICS, 233 taking OCS and 244 clinicians (67% of clinicians were primary care nurses). Among people with asthma, 64% of those taking ICS and 88% of those taking OCS reported ⩾1 side effect. People reporting high adherence to ICS (t=−3.09, P<0.005) and those reporting low adherence to OCS (t=1.86, P<0.05; one-tailed test) reported more side effects. There was a disparity between clinicians’ estimates of the frequency of side effects and the frequency reported by people with asthma: e.g., although 46% of people taking ICS reported sore throat, clinicians estimated that this figure would be 10%. Patients who reported side effects had stronger concerns about both ICS (r=0.46, P<0.0001) and OCS (r=0.50, P<0.0001). Concerns about corticosteroids were associated with low adherence to ICS (t=6.90, P<0.0001) and OCS (t=1.71; P<0.05; one-tailed test). Conclusions: An unexpectedly large proportion of people with asthma experienced side effects and had strong concerns about their treatment, which compromised adherence. These findings have implications for the design of interventions to optimise asthma control through improved adherence. PMID:26158805

  20. Estimating trematode prevalence in snail hosts using a single-step duplex PCR: how badly does cercarial shedding underestimate infection rates?

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Trematode communities often consist of different species exploiting the same host population, with two or more trematodes sometimes co-occuring in the same host. A commonly used diagnostic method to detect larval trematode infections in snails has been based on cercarial shedding, though it is often criticized as inaccurate. In the present study we compare infection prevalences determined by cercarial emission with those determined, for the first time, by molecular methods, allowing us to quantify the underestimation of single and double infections based on cercarial emission. We thus developed a duplex PCR for two host-parasite systems, to specifically differentiate between single and double infections. The Ebro samples include two morphologically similar opecoelids, whereas the Otago samples include two morphologically different larval trematodes. Methods Snails were screened for infections by incubating them individually to induce cercarial emission, thus determining infection following the “classical” detection method. Snail tissue was then removed and fixed for the duplex PCR. After obtaining ITS rDNA sequences, four species-specific primers were designed for each snail-trematode system, and duplex PCR prevalence was determined for each sample. Results from both methods were statistically compared using the McNemar’s Chi-squared test and Cohen’s Kappa Statistic for agreement between outcomes. Results Overall infection prevalences determined by duplex PCR were consistently and substantially higher than those based on cercarial shedding: among Ebro samples, between 17.9% and 60.1% more snails were found infected using the molecular method, whereas in the Otago samples, the difference was between 9.9% and 20.6%. Kappa values generally indicated a fair to substantial agreement between both detection methods, showing a lower agreement for the Ebro samples. Conclusions We demonstrate that molecular detection of single and double infections by

  1. Feasibility of using everyday abilities scale of India as alternative to mental state examination as a screen in two-phase survey estimating the prevalence of dementia in largely illiterate Indian population

    PubMed Central

    Raina, Sunil Kumar; Chander, Vishav; Raina, Sujeet; Kumar, Dinesh

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: A situation analysis report on elderly in India shows that the literacy rate for persons aged above 60 is 36%. Using HMSE and its modification in the first phase of a two phase study to estimate the prevalence of dementia in such a population must be read with caution as these tests are literacy dependent. We conducted a post hoc analysis to explore the feasibility of using EASI as an alternative to HMSE and its modifications as the first phase screen in two phase surveys to estimate the prevalence of dementia. Materials and Methods: A post hoc analysis was conducted on data obtained from a study conducted on elderly population (60 years and above) from selected geographical areas (Migrant, Urban, Rural and Tribal) of Himachal Pradesh state in North-west India. The co-relation coefficient was used to establish the strength of association between EASI and HMSE and its modification and therefore the feasibility of using it as an alternative. Results: As the scores on EASI rise, the scores on HMSE fall both pointing to identification of the same clinical diagnosis i.e., dementia. Further the Pearson Correlation coefficient at -2.52 was found to be statistically significant. Conclusion: EASI may be used as alternative to mental state examination. PMID:28197006

  2. Estimating the prevalence and burden of major disorders of the brain in Nepal: methodology of a nationwide population-based study

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The major disorders of the brain (MDBs), in terms of their prevalence and the burdens of ill health, disability and financial cost that they impose on individuals and society, are headache, depression and anxiety. No population-based studies have been conducted in Nepal. Aim Our purpose was to assess the prevalence and burden attributable to MDBs in Nepal in order to inform health policy. Here we report the methodology. Methods The unusual sociocultural diversity and extreme geographical variation of the country required adaptation of standard methodology. We ran pre-pilot and pilot studies before embarking on the main study. The study design was cross-sectional. The population of interest were adults aged 18–65 years who were Nepali speaking and living in Nepal. We selected, employed and trained groups of interviewers to visit randomly selected households by cold-calling. Households were selected from 15 representative districts out of 75 in the country through multistage cluster sampling. One participant was selected randomly from each household. We used structured questionnaires (the HARDSHIP questionnaire, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, and Eysenck Personality Questionnaire -Neuroticism), culturally adapted and translated into Nepali. We recorded blood pressure, weight, height and waist circumference, and altitude of each household. We implemented various quality-assurances measures. Results We completed the survey in one month, prior to onset of the monsoon. Among 2,210 selected households, all were contacted, 2,109 were eligible for the study and, from these, 2,100 adults participated. The participation rate was 99.6%. Conclusion Standard methodology was successfully applied in Nepal, with some adaptations. The sociocultural and extraordinary geographic diversity were challenging, but did not require us to compromise the scientific quality of the study. PMID:25146939

  3. Estimating Chikungunya prevalence in La Réunion Island outbreak by serosurveys: Two methods for two critical times of the epidemic

    PubMed Central

    Gérardin, Patrick; Guernier, Vanina; Perrau, Joëlle; Fianu, Adrian; Le Roux, Karin; Grivard, Philippe; Michault, Alain; de Lamballerie, Xavier; Flahault, Antoine; Favier, François

    2008-01-01

    Background Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) caused a major two-wave seventeen-month-long outbreak in La Réunion Island in 2005–2006. The aim of this study was to refine clinical estimates provided by a regional surveillance-system using a two-stage serological assessment as gold standard. Methods Two serosurveys were implemented: first, a rapid survey using stored sera of pregnant women, in order to assess the attack rate at the epidemic upsurge (s1, February 2006; n = 888); second, a population-based survey among a random sample of the community, to assess the herd immunity in the post-epidemic era (s2, October 2006; n = 2442). Sera were screened for anti-CHIKV specific antibodies (IgM and IgG in s1, IgG only in s2) using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. Seroprevalence rates were compared to clinical estimates of attack rates. Results In s1, 18.2% of the pregnant women were tested positive for CHIKV specific antibodies (13.8% for both IgM and IgG, 4.3% for IgM, 0.1% for IgG only) which provided a congruent estimate with the 16.5% attack rate calculated from the surveillance-system. In s2, the seroprevalence in community was estimated to 38.2% (95% CI, 35.9 to 40.6%). Extrapolations of seroprevalence rates led to estimate, at 143,000 and at 300,000 (95% CI, 283,000 to 320,000), the number of people infected in s1 and in s2, respectively. In comparison, the surveillance-system estimated at 130,000 and 266,000 the number of people infected for the same periods. Conclusion A rapid serosurvey in pregnant women can be helpful to assess the attack rate when large seroprevalence studies cannot be done. On the other hand, a population-based serosurvey is useful to refine the estimate when clinical diagnosis underestimates it. Our findings give valuable insights to assess the herd immunity along the course of epidemics. PMID:18662384

  4. Does adjusting for recall in trend analysis affect coverage estimates for maternal and child health indicators? An analysis of DHS and MICS survey data

    PubMed Central

    Ngandu, Nobubelo K.; Manda, Samuel; Besada, Donela; Rohde, Sarah; Oliphant, Nicholas P.; Doherty, Tanya

    2016-01-01

    Background The Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) are the major data sources in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) for evaluating health service coverage. For certain maternal and child health (MCH) indicators, the two surveys use different recall periods: 5 years for DHS and 2 years for MICS. Objective We explored whether the different recall periods for DHS and MICS affect coverage trend analyses as well as missing data and coverage estimates. Designs We estimated coverage, using proportions with 95% confidence intervals, for four MCH indicators: intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy, tetanus vaccination, early breastfeeding and postnatal care. Trends in coverage were compared using data from 1) standard 5-year DHS and 2-year MICS recall periods (unmatched) and 2) DHS restricted to 2-year recall to match the MICS 2-year recall periods (matched). Linear regression was used to explore the relationship between length of recall, missing data and coverage estimates. Results Differences in coverage trends were observed between matched and unmatched data in 7 of 18 (39%) comparisons performed. The differences were in the direction of the trend over time, the slope of the coverage change or the significance levels. Consistent trends were seen in 11 of the 18 (61%) comparisons. Proportion of missing data was inversely associated with coverage estimates in both short (2 years) and longer (5 years) recall of the DHS (r=−0.3, p=0.02 and r=−0.4, p=0.004, respectively). The amount of missing information was increased for longer recall compared with shorter recall for all indicators (significant odds ratios ranging between 1.44 and 7.43). Conclusions In a context where most LMICs are dependent on population-based household surveys to derive coverage estimates, users of these types of data need to ensure that variability in recall periods and the proportion of missing data across data sources are

  5. Factors Affecting Firm Yield and the Estimation of Firm Yield for Selected Streamflow-Dominated Drinking-Water-Supply Reservoirs in Massachusetts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Waldron, Marcus C.; Archfield, Stacey A.

    2006-01-01

    Factors affecting reservoir firm yield, as determined by application of the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection's Firm Yield Estimator (FYE) model, were evaluated, modified, and tested on 46 streamflow-dominated reservoirs representing 15 Massachusetts drinking-water supplies. The model uses a mass-balance approach to determine the maximum average daily withdrawal rate that can be sustained during a period of record that includes the 1960s drought-of-record. The FYE methodology to estimate streamflow to the reservoir at an ungaged site was tested by simulating streamflow at two streamflow-gaging stations in Massachusetts and comparing the simulated streamflow to the observed streamflow. In general, the FYE-simulated flows agreed well with observed flows. There were substantial deviations from the measured values for extreme high and low flows. A sensitivity analysis determined that the model's streamflow estimates are most sensitive to input values for average annual precipitation, reservoir drainage area, and the soil-retention number-a term that describes the amount of precipitation retained by the soil in the basin. The FYE model currently provides the option of using a 1,000-year synthetic record constructed by randomly sampling 2-year blocks of concurrent streamflow and precipitation records 500 times; however, the synthetic record has the potential to generate records of precipitation and streamflow that do not reflect the worst historical drought in Massachusetts. For reservoirs that do not have periods of drawdown greater than 2 years, the bootstrap does not offer any additional information about the firm yield of a reservoir than the historical record does. For some reservoirs, the use of a synthetic record to determine firm yield resulted in as much as a 30-percent difference between firm-yield values from one simulation to the next. Furthermore, the assumption that the synthetic traces of streamflow are statistically equivalent to the

  6. The prevalence and incidence of Parkinson's disease in China: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Ma, Chun-lin; Su, Li; Xie, Juan-juan; Long, Jian-xiong; Wu, Peng; Gu, Lian

    2014-02-01

    Parkinson's disease (PD) is a chronic neurodegenerative disorder affecting older individuals. There is inconsistent evidence about the prevalence and incidence of PD in China at present. The aim of the meta-analysis was to estimate the prevalence and incidence of PD and its relation to age, gender, and stage in China. The literature search was conducted using PubMed, EMBASE, Chinese Biological Medical Literature database (CBM), Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure database (CNKI), Chinese Wanfang and Chongqing VIP database for studies investigating the prevalence and incidence of PD in China from the commencement of the database until August 2012; both English and Chinese publications were included. We estimated the prevalence and incidence of PD using meta-analysis. Thirteen eligible articles were collected. The results showed that the pooled prevalence and incidence of PD were 2 per 100,000 population and 797 per 100,000 person-years. A higher prevalence of PD was found in males than in females (OR 1.29, 95 % CI 1.05-1.57). The prevalence of PD increased with age: the highest was 1,663 per 100,000 in those aged 80 and older. The overall prevalence of PD is lower in China than in developed countries, but the incidence is higher than in some developed countries. Overall, the prevalence of PD appears to increase with age and there are sex differences evident in Chinese individuals.

  7. Development and application of a fecal antigen diagnostic sandwich ELISA for estimating prevalence of Fasciola gigantica in cattle in central Java, Indonesia.

    PubMed

    Estuningsih, Endah; Spithill, Terry; Raadsma, Herman; Law, Ruby; Adiwinata, G; Meeusen, Els; Piedrafita, David

    2009-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare the sensitivity and specificity of an ELISA test to detect Fasciola gigantica antigens (coproantigens) in bovine feces, with fecal egg counting and an ELISA for detecting anti-F. gigantica antibodies in serum. Monoclonal antibodies to cathepsin L were generated and used to capture this antigen in feces of infected cattle. Blood, feces, and livers were collected from 150 cattle at an abattoir in Jakarta, Indonesia, for anti-Fasciola antibodies, coproantigen detection, and F. gigantica egg and worm counts. Fluke recovery varied from 1 to 426 per host, with a mean of 32 flukes. The results showed that the sensitivity and specificity of coproantigen detecting ELISA (95 and 91%, respectively) was better than the anti-F. gigantica antibody ELISA (91 and 88%, respectively) and to fecal egg counting (87 and 100%, respectively). The coproantigen ELISA was able to detect 100% of the cattle with >15 flukes. A survey of 305 cattle in central Java over a 10-mo period validated this test in the field, demonstrating a high prevalence of fascioliasis and establishing the test as a useful diagnostic method to determine patent F. gigantica infections in cattle.

  8. Casein Supplementation Does Not Affect the Estimates of True Total Tract Digestibility of Phosphorus in Soybean Meal for Growing Pigs Determined by the Regression Method

    PubMed Central

    Liu, J. B.; Adeola, O.

    2016-01-01

    Forty-eight barrows with an average initial body weight of 25.5±0.3 kg were assigned to 6 dietary treatments arranged in a 3×2 factorial of 3 graded levels of P at 1.42, 2.07, or 2.72 g/kg, and 2 levels of casein at 0 or 50 g/kg to compare the estimates of true total tract digestibility (TTTD) of P in soybean meal (SBM) for pigs fed diets with or without casein supplementation. The SBM is the only source of P in diets without casein, and in the diet with added casein, 1.0 to 2.4 g/kg of total dietary P was supplied by SBM as dietary level of SBM increased. The experiment consisted of a 5-d adjustment period and a 5-d total collection period with ferric oxide as a maker to indicate the initiation and termination of fecal collection. There were interactive effects of casein supplementation and total dietary P level on the apparent total tract digestibility (ATTD) and retention of P (p<0.05). Dietary P intake, fecal P output, digested P and retained P were increased linearly with graded increasing levels of SBM in diets regardless of casein addition (p<0.01). Compared with diets without casein, there was a reduction in fecal P in the casein-supplemented diets, which led to increases in digested P, retained P, ATTD, and retention of P (p<0.01). Digested N, ATTD of N, retained N, and N retention were affected by the interaction of casein supplementation and dietary P level (p<0.05). Fecal N output, urinary N output, digested N, and retained N increased linearly with graded increasing levels of SBM for each type of diet (p<0.01). The estimates of TTTD of P in SBM, derived from the regression of daily digested P against daily P intake, for pigs fed diets without casein and with casein were calculated to be 37.3% and 38.6%, respectively. Regressing daily digested N against daily N intake, the TTTD of N in SBM were determined at 94.3% and 94.4% for diets without casein and with added casein, respectively. There was no difference in determined values of TTTD of P or N in

  9. Increasing Autism Prevalence in Metropolitan New Jersey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zahorodny, Walter; Shenouda, Josephine; Howell, Sandra; Rosato, Nancy Scotto; Peng, Bo; Mehta, Uday

    2014-01-01

    High baseline autism spectrum disorder prevalence estimates in New Jersey led to a follow-up surveillance. The objectives were to determine autism spectrum disorder prevalence in the year 2006 in New Jersey and to identify changes in the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder or in the characteristics of the children with autism spectrum disorder,…

  10. Prevalence Incidence Mixture Models

    Cancer.gov

    The R package and webtool fits Prevalence Incidence Mixture models to left-censored and irregularly interval-censored time to event data that is commonly found in screening cohorts assembled from electronic health records. Absolute and relative risk can be estimated for simple random sampling, stratified sampling, and two-phase stratified sampling. Non-parametric (absolute risks only), semi-parametric, weakly-parametric (using B-splines), and some fully parametric (such as the logistic-Weibull) models are supported.

  11. Is diabetes color-blind? Growth of prevalence of diagnosed diabetes in children through 2030.

    PubMed

    Adepoju, Omolola E; Bolin, Jane N; Booth, Eric A; Zhao, Hongwei; Lin, Szu-Hsuan; Phillips, Charles D; Ohsfeldt, Robert L

    2015-06-01

    Diabetes knows no age and affects millions of individuals. Preventing diabetes in children is increasingly becoming a major health policy concern and focus. The objective of this study is to project the number of children, aged 0-17 years, with diagnosed diabetes in the United States through 2030, accounting for changing demography, and diabetes and obesity prevalence rates. The study team combined historic diabetes and obesity prevalence data with US child population estimates and projections. A times-series regression model was used to forecast future diabetes prevalence and to account for the relationship between the forecasted diabetes prevalence and the lagged prevalence of childhood obesity. Overall, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes is projected to increase 67% from 0.22% in 2010 to 0.36% in 2030. Lagged obesity prevalence in Hispanic boys and non-Hispanic black girls was significantly associated with increasing future diabetes prevalence. The study results showed that a 1% increase in obesity prevalence among Hispanic boys from the previous year was significantly associated with a 0.005% increase in future prevalence of diagnosed diabetes in children (P ≤ 0.01). Likewise, a unit increase in obesity prevalence among non-Hispanic black girls was associated with a 0.003% increase in future diabetes prevalence (P < 0.05). Obesity rates for other race/ethnicity combinations were not associated with increasing future diabetes prevalence. To mitigate the continued threat posed by diabetes, serious discussions need to focus on the pediatric population, particularly non-Hispanic black girls and Hispanic boys whose obesity trends show the strongest associations with future diabetes prevalence in children.

  12. Prevalence of oropharyngeal dysphagia in Parkinson's disease: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Kalf, J G; de Swart, B J M; Bloem, B R; Munneke, M

    2012-05-01

    Dysphagia is a potentially harmful feature, also in Parkinson's disease (PD). As published prevalence rates vary widely, we aimed to estimate the prevalence of oropharyngeal dysphagia in PD in a meta-analysis. We conducted a systematic literature search in February 2011 and two independent reviewers selected the papers. We computed the estimates of the pooled prevalence weighted by sample size. Twelve studies were suitable for calculating prevalence rates. Ten studies provided an estimate based on subjective outcomes, which proved statistically heterogeneous (p < 0.001), with a pooled prevalence estimate with random effect analysis of 35% (95% CI 28-41). Four studies provided an estimate based on objective measurements, which were statistically homogeneous (p = 0.23), with a pooled prevalence estimate of 82% (95% CI 77-87). In controls the pooled subjective prevalence was 9% (95% CI 2-17), while the pooled objective prevalence was 23% (95% CI 13-32). The pooled relative risk was 3.2 for both subjective outcomes (95% CI 2.32-4.41) and objective outcomes (95% CI 2.08-4.98). Clinical heterogeneity between studies was chiefly explained by differences in disease severity. Subjective dysphagia occurs in one third of community-dwelling PD patients. Objectively measured dysphagia rates were much higher, with 4 out of 5 patients being affected. This suggests that dysphagia is common in PD, but patients do not always report swallowing difficulties unless asked. This underreporting calls for a proactive clinical approach to dysphagia, particularly in light of the serious clinical consequences.

  13. Human land use influences chronic wasting disease prevalence in mule deer

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Farnsworth, Matthew L.; Wolfe, L.L.; Hobbs, N.T.; Burnham, K.P.; Williams, E.S.; Theobald, D.M.; Conner, M.M.; Miller, M.W.

    2005-01-01

    Human alteration of landscapes can affect the distribution, abundance, and behavior of wildlife. We explored the effects of human land use on the prevalence of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) populations residing in north-central Colorado. We chose best approximating models estimating CWD prevalence in relation to differences in human land use, sex, and geographic location. Prevalence was higher in developed areas and among male deer, suggesting anthropogenic influences on the occurrence of disease. We also found a relatively high degree of variation in prevalence across the three study sites, suggesting that spatial patterns in disease may be influenced by other factors operating at a broader, landscape scale. Our results suggest that multiple factors, including changes in land use, differences in exposure risk between sexes, and landscape-scaled heterogeneity, are associated with CWD prevalence in north-central Colorado.

  14. A no-reference bitstream-based perceptual model for video quality estimation of videos affected by coding artifacts and packet losses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pandremmenou, K.; Shahid, M.; Kondi, L. P.; Lövström, B.

    2015-03-01

    In this work, we propose a No-Reference (NR) bitstream-based model for predicting the quality of H.264/AVC video sequences, affected by both compression artifacts and transmission impairments. The proposed model is based on a feature extraction procedure, where a large number of features are calculated from the packet-loss impaired bitstream. Many of the features are firstly proposed in this work, and the specific set of the features as a whole is applied for the first time for making NR video quality predictions. All feature observations are taken as input to the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression method. LASSO indicates the most important features, and using only them, it is possible to estimate the Mean Opinion Score (MOS) with high accuracy. Indicatively, we point out that only 13 features are able to produce a Pearson Correlation Coefficient of 0.92 with the MOS. Interestingly, the performance statistics we computed in order to assess our method for predicting the Structural Similarity Index and the Video Quality Metric are equally good. Thus, the obtained experimental results verified the suitability of the features selected by LASSO as well as the ability of LASSO in making accurate predictions through sparse modeling.

  15. Traffic-related pollution and asthma prevalence in children. Quantification of associations with nitrogen dioxide.

    PubMed

    Favarato, Graziella; Anderson, H Ross; Atkinson, Richard; Fuller, Gary; Mills, Inga; Walton, Heather

    2014-01-01

    Ambient nitrogen dioxide is a widely available measure of traffic-related air pollution and is inconsistently associated with the prevalence of asthma symptoms in children. The use of this relationship to evaluate the health impact of policies affecting traffic management and traffic emissions is limited by the lack of a concentration-response function based on systematic review and meta-analysis of relevant studies. Using systematic methods, we identified papers containing quantitative estimates for nitrogen dioxide and the 12 month period prevalence of asthma symptoms in children in which the exposure contrast was within-community and dominated by traffic pollution. One estimate was selected from each study according to an a priori algorithm. Odds ratios were standardised to 10 μg/m(3) and summary estimates were obtained using random- and fixed-effects estimates. Eighteen studies were identified. Concentrations of nitrogen dioxide were estimated for the home address (12) and/or school (8) using a range of methods; land use regression (6), study monitors (6), dispersion modelling (4) and interpolation (2). Fourteen studies showed positive associations but only two associations were statistically significant at the 5 % level. There was moderate heterogeneity (I(2) = 32.8 %) and the random-effects estimate for the odds ratio was 1.06 (95 % CI 1.00 to 1.11). There was no evidence of small study bias. Individual studies tended to have only weak positive associations between nitrogen dioxide and asthma prevalence but the summary estimate bordered on statistical significance at the 5 % level. Although small, the potential impact on asthma prevalence could be considerable because of the high level of baseline prevalence in many cities. Whether the association is causal or indicates the effects of a correlated pollutant or other confounders, the estimate obtained by the meta-analysis would be appropriate for estimating impacts of traffic pollution on asthma

  16. A Budyko framework for estimating how spatial heterogeneity and lateral moisture redistribution affect average evapotranspiration rates as seen from the atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rouholahnejad Freund, Elham; Kirchner, James W.

    2017-01-01

    Most Earth system models are based on grid-averaged soil columns that do not communicate with one another, and that average over considerable sub-grid heterogeneity in land surface properties, precipitation (P), and potential evapotranspiration (PET). These models also typically ignore topographically driven lateral redistribution of water (either as groundwater or surface flows), both within and between model grid cells. Here, we present a first attempt to quantify the effects of spatial heterogeneity and lateral redistribution on grid-cell-averaged evapotranspiration (ET) as seen from the atmosphere over heterogeneous landscapes. Our approach uses Budyko curves, as a simple model of ET as a function of atmospheric forcing by P and PET. From these Budyko curves, we derive a simple sub-grid closure relation that quantifies how spatial heterogeneity affects average ET as seen from the atmosphere. We show that averaging over sub-grid heterogeneity in P and PET, as typical Earth system models do, leads to overestimations of average ET. For a sample high-relief grid cell in the Himalayas, this overestimation bias is shown to be roughly 12 %; for adjacent lower-relief grid cells, it is substantially smaller. We use a similar approach to derive sub-grid closure relations that quantify how lateral redistribution of water could alter average ET as seen from the atmosphere. We derive expressions for the maximum possible effect of lateral redistribution on average ET, and the amount of lateral redistribution required to achieve this effect, using only estimates of P and PET in possible source and recipient locations as inputs. We show that where the aridity index P/PET increases with altitude, gravitationally driven lateral redistribution will increase average ET (and models that overlook lateral redistribution will underestimate average ET). Conversely, where the aridity index P/PET decreases with altitude, gravitationally driven lateral redistribution will decrease average

  17. How Various Sources of Uncertainty Affect Retrieval Uncertainty in the Optimal Estimation Framework Using a Non-precipitating Liquid Clouds Example

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Z.; Mace, G. G.; Turner, D. D.; Posselt, D. J.

    2014-12-01

    Optimal estimation (OE) is a commonly used inverse method in the geosciences. In a Bayesian context, a set of measurements (y) is related to the state vector to be retrieved (x) by the forward model F(x). Assuming Gaussian statistics, OE returns an optimal solution and its associated uncertainty by minimizing the cost function that consists of the state vector-a priori state difference weighted by the a priori uncertainty and the measurement-forward model difference weighted by the uncertainties of observation and forward model. OE algorithms are easy to implement and are finding increasing use within communities attempting to derive, for instance, cloud and precipitation microphysical properties from remote sensing data. However, even though OE algorithms are simple to implement, obtaining rigorous uncertainty estimates from them is a significant challenge. Our objective with this work is to illustrate the growth of retrieval uncertainty within the OE framework due to various sources using simple real world examples of non-precipitating liquid clouds. Within the OE retrieval, several sources of uncertainties contribute to the overall retrieval uncertainty (Sx), including the measurement uncertainty (Sy), the uncertainties in a priori information (Sa) and uncertainties in the forward model due to imperfectly known parameters (Sb). In this study, two examples are given to demonstrate how uncertainties in Sy, Sa and Sb affect the ultimate retrieval uncertainty Sx. We apply OE technique to retrieve cloud liquid water content (LWC) and total number from measurements of radar reflectivity and extinction obtained in 2005 Marine Stratus/Stratocumulus Experiment (MASE). In the first example, the forward model is assumed perfect, which means all parameters are certain and Sb is zero. Then we perturb Sy and Sa separately and observe the response of Sx. We find the observation error Sy contributes significantly to the retrieval uncertainty under the assumption of "perfect

  18. Estimating population prevalence of potential airflow obstruction using different spirometric criteria: a pooled cross-sectional analysis of persons aged 40–95 years in England and Wales

    PubMed Central

    Scholes, Shaun; Moody, Alison; Mindell, Jennifer S

    2014-01-01

    Objectives Consistent estimation of the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been hindered by differences in methods, including different spirometric cut-offs for impaired lung function. The impact of different definitions on the prevalence of potential airflow obstruction, and its associations with key risk factors, is evaluated using cross-sectional data from two nationally representative population surveys. Design Pooled cross-sectional analysis of Wave 2 of the UK Household Longitudinal Survey and the Health Survey for England 2010, including 7879 participants, aged 40–95 years, who lived in England and Wales, without diagnosed asthma and with good-quality spirometry data. Potential airflow obstruction was defined using self-reported physician-diagnosed COPD; a fixed threshold (FT) forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) ratio <0.7 and an age-specific, sex-specific, height-specific and ethnic-specific lower limit of normal (LLN). Standardised questions elicited self-reported information on demography, smoking history, ethnicity, occupation, respiratory symptoms and cardiovascular disease. Results Consistent across definitions, participants classed with obstructed airflow were more likely to be older, currently smoke, have higher pack-years of smoking and be engaged in routine occupations. The prevalence of airflow obstruction was 2.8% (95% CI 2.3% to 3.2%), 22.2% (21.2% to 23.2%) and 13.1% (12.2% to 13.9%) according to diagnosed COPD, FT and LLN, respectively. The gap in prevalence between FT and LLN increased in older age groups. Sex differences in the risk of obstruction, after adjustment for key risk factors, was sensitive to the choice of spirometric cut-off, being significantly higher in men when using FT, compared with no significant difference using LLN. Conclusions Applying FT or LLN spirometric cut-offs gives a different picture of the size and distribution of the disease burden. Longitudinal studies

  19. Hospital discharge records under-report the prevalence of diabetes in inpatients.

    PubMed

    Carral, Florentino; Olveira, Gabriel; Aguilar, Manuel; Ortego, José; Gavilán, Inmaculada; Doménech, Inmaculada; Escobar, Luis

    2003-02-01

    The objective of our study was to estimate the hospital inpatient prevalence of diabetes mellitus in a Spanish tertiary care teaching hospital. We analyzed a cohort of 1036 patients consecutively admitted over a 7-day period to our hospital. We classified this total of hospitalized patients based on information obtained from individual analysis of medical history and values of plasma glucose after fasting, into groups with the following conditions: recognized diabetes, unrecognized diabetes, other hyperglycaemic situations, impaired fasting glucose (IFG) or non diabetes. One hundred and seventy-eight patients were estimated to have diabetes (total prevalence: 17.2%), including 158 patients with recognized diabetes and 20 patients with diabetes unrecognized before admission. Additionally, 25 patients were considered to have other hyperglycaemic situations and 20 patients were estimated to have IFG. The mean age of the diabetic patients was 65+/-13.7 years (50.5% men), and 94.4% had type 2 diabetes. Diabetes disproportionately affects the elderly inpatient, with a prevalence of 30.9% in people older than 64 years. Of the total number of patients with diabetes, only 144 (diabetes prevalence: 13.8%) were registered in hospital discharge records as having diabetes. We conclude that the extent of hospital diabetes prevalence considerably exceeds levels reported in the literature, suggesting that true diabetes prevalence in hospitals could be significantly under-reported, resulting in a serious underestimate of required expenditures.

  20. Prevalence of treated epilepsy in Korea based on national health insurance data.

    PubMed

    Lee, Seo-Young; Jung, Ki-Young; Lee, Il Keun; Yi, Sang Do; Cho, Yong Won; Kim, Dong Wook; Hwang, Seung-Sik; Kim, Sejin

    2012-03-01

    The Korean national health security system covers the entire population and all medical facilities. We aimed to estimate epilepsy prevalence, anticonvulsant utilization pattern and the cost. We identified prevalent epilepsy patients by the prescription of anticonvulsants under the diagnostic codes suggesting seizure or epilepsy from 2007 Korean National Health Insurance databases. The information of demography, residential area, the kind of medical security service reflecting economic status, anticonvulsants, and the costs was extracted. The overall prevalence of treated epilepsy patients was 2.41/1,000, and higher for men than women. The age-specific prevalence was the lowest in those in their thirties and forties. Epilepsy was more prevalent among lower-income individuals receiving medical aid. The regional prevalence was the highest in Jeju Island and lowest in Ulsan city. New anticonvulsants were more frequently used than old anticonvulsants in the younger age group. The total annual cost of epilepsy or seizure reached 0.46% of total medical expenditure and 0.27% of total expenditure on health. This is the first nationwide epidemiological report issued on epilepsy in Korea. Epilepsy prevalence in Korea is comparable to those in developed countries. Economic status and geography affect the prevalence of epilepsy.

  1. PREVALENCE OF HELICOBACTER PYLORI TEN YEARS AGO COMPARED TO THE CURRENT PREVALENCE IN PATIENTS UNDERGOING UPPER ENDOSCOPY

    PubMed Central

    FRUGIS, Sandra; CZECZKO, Nicolau Gregori; MALAFAIA, Osvaldo; PARADA, Artur Adolfo; POLETTI, Paula Bechara; SECCHI, Thiago Festa; DEGIOVANI, Matheus; RAMPANAZZO-NETO, Alécio; D´AGOSTINO, Mariza D.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Background: Helicobacter pylori has been extensively studied since 1982 it is estimated that 50% of the world population is affected. The literature lacks studies that show the change of its prevalence in the same population over time. Aim: To compare the prevalence of H. pylori in 10 years interval in a population that was submitted to upper endoscopy in the same endoscopy service. Method: Observational, retrospective and cross-sectional study comparing the prevalence of H. pylori in two samples with 10 years apart (2004 and 2014) who underwent endoscopy with biopsy and urease. Patients were studied in three consecutive months of 2004, compared to three consecutive months of 2014. The total number of patients was 2536, and 1406 in 2004 and 1130 in 2014. Results: There were positive for H. pylori in 17 % of the sample as a whole. There was a significant decrease in the prevalence from 19.3% in 2004 to 14.1% in 2014 (p<0.005). Conclusion: There was a 5.2% reduction in the prevalence of H. pylori comparing two periods of three consecutive months with 10 years apart in two equivalent population samples. PMID:27759776

  2. Current Prevalence Pattern of Hypertension in Nigeria: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Akinlua, James Tosin; Meakin, Richard; Umar, Aminu Mahmoud; Freemantle, Nick

    2015-01-01

    Background The global burden of hypertension and other non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is rapidly increasing, and the African continent seems to be the most affected region in the world. The prevalence of hypertension in Nigeria forms a substantial portion of the total burden in Africa because of the large population of the country currently estimated to be over 170 million. Objective The purpose of this systematic review is to summarise up to date data on the prevalence and distribution of hypertension in Nigeria from prevalence studies. Methods A search of the following databases: PubMed, EMBase and WHO cardiovascular InfoBase from 1968 till date was conducted to identify studies which provide estimates of prevalence of hypertension in Nigeria. Results The search yielded a total of 1748 hits from which 45 relevant studies met the inclusion criteria for the review. The overall crude prevalence of hypertension ranged from 0.1% (95%CI:-0.1 to 0.3) to 17.5% (95% CI: 13.6 to 21.4) in children and 2.1% (95%CI: 1.4 to 2.8) to 47.2% (95%CI: 43.6 to 50.8) in adults depending on the benchmark used for diagnosis of hypertension, the setting in which the study was conducted, sex and ethnic group. The crude prevalence of hypertension ranged from 6.2% (95%CI: 4.0 to 8.4) to 48.9% (95%CI: 42.3 to 55.5) for men and 10% (95%CI: 8.1 to 12) to 47.3% (95%CI: 43 to 51.6%) for women. In most studies, prevalence of hypertension was higher in males than females. In addition, prevalence across urban and rural ranged from 9.5% (95%CI: 13.6 to 21.4) to 51.6% (95%CI: 49.8 to 53.4) and 4.8% (95%CI: 2.9 to 6.7) to 43% (95%CI: 42.1 to 43.9) respectively. Conclusions The prevalence of hypertension is high among the Nigerian population. Appropriate interventions need to be developed and implemented to reduce the preventable burden of hypertension especially at Primary Health Care Centres which is the first point of call for over 55% of the Nigerian population. PMID:26461923

  3. The reliability of hospital and pharmaceutical data to assess prevalent cases of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

    PubMed

    Faustini, Annunziata; Canova, Cristina; Cascini, Silvia; Baldo, Vincenzo; Bonora, Karin; De Girolamo, Gianfranco; Romor, Pierantonio; Zanier, Loris; Simonato, Lorenzo

    2012-04-01

    Identifying chronic obstructive disease (COPD) cases is required to estimate COPD prevalence, to enroll COPD cohorts and to estimate air pollution health effects. Administrative health data are frequently used to identify COPD cases, though their validity has not been satisfactorily assessed. This paper aims to assess the contribution of pharmaceutical data in detecting COPD cases and to estimate the reliability of hospital/mortality databases in detecting COPD cases. Prevalent COPD cases among 35-plus-year-olds were estimated in four Italian areas in 2006 from hospital/mortality registries and adding pharmaceutical data. Age-specific and age-standardized prevalence rates were calculated in each area. Internal validity of COPD diagnoses from hospital and mortality databases was assessed. Pharmaceutical database was used to confirm the hospital/mortality COPD cases and to examine the selection and misclassification of hospitalized cases. Possible misclassification between COPD and asthma cases was estimated using hospital data. Prevalent COPD cases were 77,098 from hospital/mortality registries, 172,357 when respiratory prescriptions were added. Prevalence ranged from 4.0%-6.7%. Only 22.7% of pharmaceutical COPD cases were hospitalized or died and only 37.2% of hospital/mortality cases consumed respiratory medicines; this last proportion increased to 64.5% among the older cases with a principal diagnosis. COPD cases with a contemporary asthma diagnosis were 3.1%. We found that pharmaceutical data increases COPD prevalence estimates 2.2-2.5 times. Hospitalization does not necessarily indicate COPD severity, COPD as a principal diagnosis confirmed with medicine prescription more likely represented true cases. Misclassification affects asthma cases to greater extent than COPD cases.

  4. Global Prevalence of Chronic Kidney Disease – A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Fatoba, Samuel T.; Oke, Jason L.; Hirst, Jennifer A.; O’Callaghan, Christopher A.; Lasserson, Daniel S.; Hobbs, F. D. Richard

    2016-01-01

    Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a global health burden with a high economic cost to health systems and is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). All stages of CKD are associated with increased risks of cardiovascular morbidity, premature mortality, and/or decreased quality of life. CKD is usually asymptomatic until later stages and accurate prevalence data are lacking. Thus we sought to determine the prevalence of CKD globally, by stage, geographical location, gender and age. A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies estimating CKD prevalence in general populations was conducted through literature searches in 8 databases. We assessed pooled data using a random effects model. Of 5,842 potential articles, 100 studies of diverse quality were included, comprising 6,908,440 patients. Global mean(95%CI) CKD prevalence of 5 stages 13·4%(11·7–15·1%), and stages 3–5 was 10·6%(9·2–12·2%). Weighting by study quality did not affect prevalence estimates. CKD prevalence by stage was Stage-1 (eGFR>90+ACR>30): 3·5% (2·8–4·2%); Stage-2 (eGFR 60–89+ACR>30): 3·9% (2·7–5·3%); Stage-3 (eGFR 30–59): 7·6% (6·4–8·9%); Stage-4 = (eGFR 29–15): 0·4% (0·3–0·5%); and Stage-5 (eGFR<15): 0·1% (0·1–0·1%). CKD has a high global prevalence with a consistent estimated global CKD prevalence of between 11 to 13% with the majority stage 3. Future research should evaluate intervention strategies deliverable at scale to delay the progression of CKD and improve CVD outcomes. PMID:27383068

  5. Children Affected by AIDS in Brazil: Estimates of the Number of Children at Risk of Being Orphaned and Displaced by AIDS in Brazil.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fontes, Miguel B.; Hillis, Janette; Wasek, Glenn K.

    1998-01-01

    Estimated the number of Brazilian children under 14 whose mothers are HIV-positive, living with AIDS, or dead due to AIDS. Found that of the 210,150 children, 17,600 were HIV-positive Findings underscore the urgent need for new programs to increase the longevity of persons with AIDS and to decrease the likelihood of child displacement and severe…

  6. Is glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency more prevalent in Carrion's disease endemic areas in Latin America?

    PubMed

    Mazulis, Fernando; Weilg, Claudia; Alva-Urcia, Carlos; Pons, Maria J; Del Valle Mendoza, Juana

    2015-12-01

    Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) is a cytoplasmic enzyme with an important function in cell oxidative damage prevention. Erythrocytes have a predisposition towards oxidized environments due to their lack of mitochondria, giving G6PD a major role in its stability. G6PD deficiency (G6PDd) is the most common enzyme deficiency in humans; it affects approximately 400 million individuals worldwide. The overall G6PDd allele frequency across malaria endemic countries is estimated to be 8%, corresponding to approximately 220 million males and 133 million females. However, there are no reports on the prevalence of G6PDd in Andean communities where bartonellosis is prevalent.

  7. Report summary Prevalence and monetary costs of dementia in Canada (2016): a report by the Alzheimer Society of Canada.

    PubMed

    2016-10-01

    Dementia prevalence estimates vary among population-based studies, depending on the definitions of dementia, methodologies and data sources and types of costs they use. A common approach is needed to avoid confusion and increase public and stakeholder confidence in the estimates. Since 1994, five major studies have yielded widely differing estimates of dementia prevalence and monetary costs of dementia in Canada. These studies variously estimated the prevalence of dementia for the year 2011 as low as 340 170 and as high as 747 000. The main reason for this difference was that mild cognitive impairment (MCI) was not consistently included in the projections. The estimated monetary costs of dementia for the same year also varied, from $910 million to $33 billion. This discrepancy is largely due to three factors: (1) the lack of agreed-upon methods for estimating financial costs; (2) the unavailability of prevalence estimates for the various stages of dementia (mild, moderate and severe), which directly affect the amount of money spent; and (3) the absence of tools to measure direct, indirect and intangible costs more accurately. Given the increasing challenges of dementia in Canada and around the globe, reconciling these differences is critical for developing standards to generate reliable information for public consumption and to shape public policy and service development.

  8. Prevalence of asthma in Portugal - The Portuguese National Asthma Survey

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Asthma is a frequent chronic respiratory disease in both children and adults. However, few data on asthma prevalence are available in Portugal. The Portuguese National Asthma Survey is the first nationwide study that uses standardized methods. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of current asthma in the Portuguese population and to assess the association between ‘Current asthma’ and comorbidities such as upper airways disease. Methods A cross-sectional, population-based, telephone interview survey including all municipalities of Portugal was undertaken. Participants were randomly selected to answer a questionnaire based on the Portuguese version of the GA2LEN survey. ‘Current asthma’ was defined as self-reported lifetime asthma and at least one of 3 symptoms in the last 12 months: wheezing, waking with breathlessness or having an asthma attack. Results Data were obtained for 6 003 respondents, with mean age of 38.9 (95%CI 38.2-39.6) years and 57.3% females. In the Portuguese population, the prevalence of ‘Current asthma’ was 6.8% (95%CI 6.0-7.7) and of ‘Lifetime asthma’ was 10.5% (95%CI 9.5-11.6) Using GA2LEN definition for asthma, our prevalence estimate was 7.8% (95%CI 7.0-8.8). Rhinitis had a strong association with asthma (Adjusted OR 3.87, 95%CI 2.90-5.18) and the association between upper airway diseases and asthma was stronger in patients with both rhinitis and sinusitis (Adjusted OR 13.93, 95%CI 6.60-29.44). Conclusions Current asthma affects 695 000 Portuguese, with a prevalence of 6.8%. People who reported both rhinitis and sinusitis had the highest risk of having asthma. PMID:22931550

  9. Basic numerical capacities and prevalence of developmental dyscalculia: the Havana Survey.

    PubMed

    Reigosa-Crespo, Vivian; Valdés-Sosa, Mitchell; Butterworth, Brian; Estévez, Nancy; Rodríguez, Marisol; Santos, Elsa; Torres, Paul; Suárez, Ramón; Lage, Agustín

    2012-01-01

    The association of enumeration and number comparison capacities with arithmetical competence was examined in a large sample of children from 2nd to 9th grades. It was found that efficiency on numerical capacities predicted separately more than 25% of the variance in the individual differences on a timed arithmetical test, and this occurred for both younger and older learners. These capacities were also significant predictors of individual variations in an untimed curriculum-based math achievement test and on the teacher scores of math performance over developmental time. Based on these findings, these numerical capacities were used for estimating the prevalence and gender ratio of basic numerical deficits and developmental dyscalculia (DD) over the grade range defined above (N = 11,652 children). The extent to which DD affects the population with poor ability on calculation was also examined. For this purpose, the prevalence and gender ratio of arithmetical dysfluency (AD) were estimated in the same cohort. The estimated prevalence of DD was 3.4%, and the male:female ratio was 4:1. However, the prevalence of AD was almost 3 times as high (9.35%), and no gender differences were found (male:female ratio = 1.07:1). Basic numerical deficits affect 4.54% of school-age population and affect more boys than girls (2.4:1). The differences between the corresponding estimates were highly significant (α < .01). Based on these contrastive findings, it is concluded that DD, defined as a defective sense of numerosity, could be a distinctive disorder that affects only a portion of children with AD.

  10. Classification and prevalence of foot lesions in captive flamingos (Phoenicopteridae).

    PubMed

    Nielsen, Adriana M W; Nielsen, Søren S; King, Catherine E; Bertelsen, Mads F

    2010-03-01

    Foot lesions can compromise the health and welfare of captive birds. In this study, we estimated the prevalence of foot lesions in captive flamingos (Phoenicopteridae). The study was based on photos of 1,495 pairs of foot soles from 854 flamingos in 18 European and two Texan (USA) zoological collections. Methodology for evaluating flamingo feet lesions was developed for this project because no suitable method had been reported in the literature. Four types of foot lesions were identified: hyperkeratoses, fissures, nodular lesions, and papillomatous growths. Seven areas on each foot received a severity score from 0 to 2 for each type of lesion (0 = no lesion, 1 = mild to moderate lesion, 2 = severe lesion). The prevalence of birds with lesions (scores 1 or 2) were 100%, 87%, 17%, and 46% for hyperkeratosis, fissures, nodular lesions, and papillomatous growths, respectively. Birds with severe lesions (score 2) constituted 67%, 46%, 4%, and 12% for hyperkeratosis, fissures, nodular lesions, and papillomatous growths, respectively. Hyperkeratosis and nodular lesions were most prevalent on the base of the foot and the proximal portion of the digits, likely reflecting those areas bearing the most weight. The second and fourth digits were most affected with fissures and papillomatous lesions; these areas of the foot appear to be where the most flexion occurs during ambulation. The study demonstrates that foot lesions are highly prevalent and widely distributed in the study population, indicating that they are an extensive problem in captive flamingos.

  11. Temporal Uncertainty and Temporal Estimation Errors Affect Insular Activity and the Frontostriatal Indirect Pathway during Action Update: A Predictive Coding Study

    PubMed Central

    Limongi, Roberto; Pérez, Francisco J.; Modroño, Cristián; González-Mora, José L.

    2016-01-01

    Action update, substituting a prepotent behavior with a new action, allows the organism to counteract surprising environmental demands. However, action update fails when the organism is uncertain about when to release the substituting behavior, when it faces temporal uncertainty. Predictive coding states that accurate perception demands minimization of precise prediction errors. Activity of the right anterior insula (rAI) is associated with temporal uncertainty. Therefore, we hypothesize that temporal uncertainty during action update would cause the AI to decrease the sensitivity to ascending prediction errors. Moreover, action update requires response inhibition which recruits the frontostriatal indirect pathway associated with motor control. Therefore, we also hypothesize that temporal estimation errors modulate frontostriatal connections. To test these hypotheses, we collected fMRI data when participants performed an action-update paradigm within the context of temporal estimation. We fit dynamic causal models to the imaging data. Competing models comprised the inferior occipital gyrus (IOG), right supramarginal gyrus (rSMG), rAI, right presupplementary motor area (rPreSMA), and the right striatum (rSTR). The winning model showed that temporal uncertainty drove activity into the rAI and decreased insular sensitivity to ascending prediction errors, as shown by weak connectivity strength of rSMG→rAI connections. Moreover, temporal estimation errors weakened rPreSMA→rSTR connections and also modulated rAI→rSTR connections, causing the disruption of action update. Results provide information about the neurophysiological implementation of the so-called horse-race model of action control. We suggest that, contrary to what might be believed, unsuccessful action update could be a homeostatic process that represents a Bayes optimal encoding of uncertainty. PMID:27445737

  12. Temporal Uncertainty and Temporal Estimation Errors Affect Insular Activity and the Frontostriatal Indirect Pathway during Action Update: A Predictive Coding Study.

    PubMed

    Limongi, Roberto; Pérez, Francisco J; Modroño, Cristián; González-Mora, José L

    2016-01-01

    Action update, substituting a prepotent behavior with a new action, allows the organism to counteract surprising environmental demands. However, action update fails when the organism is uncertain about when to release the substituting behavior, when it faces temporal uncertainty. Predictive coding states that accurate perception demands minimization of precise prediction errors. Activity of the right anterior insula (rAI) is associated with temporal uncertainty. Therefore, we hypothesize that temporal uncertainty during action update would cause the AI to decrease the sensitivity to ascending prediction errors. Moreover, action update requires response inhibition which recruits the frontostriatal indirect pathway associated with motor control. Therefore, we also hypothesize that temporal estimation errors modulate frontostriatal connections. To test these hypotheses, we collected fMRI data when participants performed an action-update paradigm within the context of temporal estimation. We fit dynamic causal models to the imaging data. Competing models comprised the inferior occipital gyrus (IOG), right supramarginal gyrus (rSMG), rAI, right presupplementary motor area (rPreSMA), and the right striatum (rSTR). The winning model showed that temporal uncertainty drove activity into the rAI and decreased insular sensitivity to ascending prediction errors, as shown by weak connectivity strength of rSMG→rAI connections. Moreover, temporal estimation errors weakened rPreSMA→rSTR connections and also modulated rAI→rSTR connections, causing the disruption of action update. Results provide information about the neurophysiological implementation of the so-called horse-race model of action control. We suggest that, contrary to what might be believed, unsuccessful action update could be a homeostatic process that represents a Bayes optimal encoding of uncertainty.

  13. Evaluation of Factors Affecting Collection Efficiency Estimates of Chinook Salmon and Steelhead Smolts at McNary Dam. 1988 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Stuehrenberg, Lowell; Johnson, Orlay W.

    1990-03-01

    During 1988, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) began a 2-year study to address possible sources of error in determining collection efficiency at McNary Dam. We addressed four objectives: determine whether fish from Columbia and Snake Rivers mix as they migrate to McNary Dam, determine whether Columbia and Snake River stocks are collected at the same rates assess whether the time of day fish are released influences their recovery rate, and determine whether guided fish used in collection efficiency estimates ten to bias results. 7 refs., 12 figs., 4 tabs.

  14. Some factors affecting the use of lighter than air systems. [economic and performance estimates for dirigibles and semi-buoyant hybrid vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Havill, C. D.

    1974-01-01

    The uses of lighter-than-air vehicles are examined in the present day transportation environment. Conventional dirigibles were found to indicate an undesirable economic risk due to their low speeds and to uncertainties concerning their operational use. Semi-buoyant hybrid vehicles are suggested as an alternative which does not have many of the inferior characteristics of conventional dirigibles. Economic and performance estimates for hybrid vehicles indicate that they are competitive with other transportation systems in many applications, and unique in their ability to perform some highly desirable emergency missions.

  15. Estimating environmental conditions affecting protozoal pathogen removal in surface water wetland systems using a multi-scale, model-based approach.

    PubMed

    Daniels, Miles E; Hogan, Jennifer; Smith, Woutrina A; Oates, Stori C; Miller, Melissa A; Hardin, Dane; Shapiro, Karen; Los Huertos, Marc; Conrad, Patricia A; Dominik, Clare; Watson, Fred G R

    2014-09-15

    Cryptosporidium parvum, Giardia lamblia, and Toxoplasma gondii are waterborne protozoal pathogens distributed worldwide and empirical evidence suggests that wetlands reduce the concentrations of these pathogens under certain environmental conditions. The goal of this study was to evaluate how protozoal removal in surface water is affected by the water temperature, turbidity, salinity, and vegetation cover of wetlands in the Monterey Bay region of California. To examine how protozoal removal was affected by these environmental factors, we conducted observational experiments at three primary spatial scales: settling columns, recirculating wetland mesocosm tanks, and an experimental research wetland (Molera Wetland). Simultaneously, we developed a protozoal transport model for surface water to simulate the settling columns, the mesocosm tanks, and the Molera Wetland. With a high degree of uncertainty expected in the model predictions and field observations, we developed the model within a Bayesian statistical framework. We found protozoal removal increased when water flowed through vegetation, and with higher levels of turbidity, salinity, and temperature. Protozoal removal in surface water was maximized (~0.1 hour(-1)) when flowing through emergent vegetation at 2% cover, and with a vegetation contact time of ~30 minutes compared to the effects of temperature, salinity, and turbidity. Our studies revealed that an increase in vegetated wetland area, with water moving through vegetation, would likely improve regional water quality through the reduction of fecal protozoal pathogen loads.

  16. Hyperhidrosis: an update on prevalence and severity in the United States.

    PubMed

    Doolittle, James; Walker, Patricia; Mills, Thomas; Thurston, Jane

    2016-12-01

    Current published estimates of the prevalence of hyperhidrosis in the United States are outdated and underestimate the true prevalence of the condition. The objectives of this study are to provide an updated estimate of the prevalence of hyperhidrosis in the US population and to further assess the severity and impact of sweating on those affected by the condition. For the purposes of obtaining prevalence, a nationally representative sample of 8160 individuals were selected using an online panel, and information as to whether or not they experience hyperhidrosis was obtained. The 393 individuals (210 female, 244 non-Hispanic white, 27 black, mean age 40.3, SE 0.64) who indicated that they have hyperhidrosis were asked further questions, including body areas impacted, severity of symptoms, age of onset, and socioemotional impact of the condition. Current results estimate the prevalence of hyperhidrosis at 4.8 %, which represents approximately 15.3 million people in the United States. Of these, 70 % report severe excessive sweating in at least one body area. In spite of this, only 51 % have discussed their excessive sweating with a healthcare professional. The main reasons are a belief that hyperhidrosis is not a medical condition and that no treatment options exist. The current study's findings with regard to age of onset and prevalence by body area generally align with the previous research. However, current findings suggest that the severity and prevalence are both higher than previously thought, indicating a need for greater awareness of the condition and its associated treatment options among medical professionals.

  17. A Comparison of DSM-IV PDD and DSM-5 ASD Prevalence in an Epidemiologic Sample

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Young Shin; Fombonne, Eric; Koh, Yun-Joo; Kim, Soo-Jeong; Cheon, Keun-Ah; Leventhal, Bennett

    2014-01-01

    Objective Changes in autism diagnostic criteria found in DSM5 may affect Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) prevalence, research findings, diagnostic processes and eligibility for clinical and other services. Utilizing our published, total-population Korean prevalence data, we compute DSM5 ASD and Social Communication Disorder (SCD) prevalence and compare them to DSMIV Pervasive Developmental Disorder (PDD) prevalence estimates. We also describe individuals previously diagnosed with DSMIV PDD when diagnoses change with DSM-5 criteria. Method The target population was all 7-12-year-old children in a South Korean community (N= 55,266), those in regular and special education schools and a disability registry. We utilized the Autism Spectrum Screening Questionnaire for systematic, multi-informant screening. Parents of screen-positive children were offered comprehensive assessments using standardized diagnostic procedures, including the Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised and Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule. Best estimate clinical diagnoses were made using DSMIV PDD and DSM5 ASD and SCD criteria. Results DSM5 ASD estimated prevalence is 2.20% (CI: 1.77-3.64). Combined DSM-5 ASD and SCD prevalence is virtually same as DSM-IV PDD prevalence (2.64%). Most children with Autistic Disorder (99%), Asperger Disorder (92%), and PDD NOS (63%) met DSM-5 ASD criteria, whereas 1%, 8% and 32%, respectively, met SCD criteria. All remaining children (2% ) had other psychopathology, principally Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder and anxiety disorder. Conclusion Our findings suggest that most individuals with a prior DSMIV PDD meet DSM5 diagnostic criteria for ASD and SCD. PDD, ASD or SCD, extant diagnostic criteria identify a large, clinically meaningful group of individuals and families who require evidence-based services. PMID:24745950

  18. Application of the two-sample doubly labelled water method alters behaviour and affects estimates of energy expenditure in black-legged kittiwakes.

    PubMed

    Schultner, Jannik; Welcker, Jorg; Speakman, John R; Nordøy, Erling S; Gabrielsen, Geir W

    2010-09-01

    Despite the widespread use of the doubly labelled water (DLW) method in energetic studies of free-ranging animals, effects of the method on study animals are rarely assessed. We studied behavioural effects of two alternative DLW protocols. During two consecutive breeding seasons, 42 parent black-legged kittiwakes received either the commonly used two-sample (TS) or the less invasive single-sample (SS) DLW treatment. A third group served as a non-treated control. We evaluated the effect of treatment with respect to the time birds took to return to their nest after treatment and recaptures, and the nest attendance during DLW measurement periods. We found that TS kittiwakes took on average 20 times longer to return to their nest than SS kittiwakes after initial treatment, and nest attendance was reduced by about 40% relative to control birds. In contrast, nest attendance did not differ between control and SS kittiwakes. Estimates of energy expenditure of SS kittiwakes exceeded those of TS kittiwakes by 15%. This difference was probably caused by TS birds remaining inactive for extended time periods while at sea. Our results demonstrate that the common assumption that the TS DLW method has little impact on the behaviour of study subjects is in some circumstances fallacious. Estimates of energy expenditure derived by the SS approach may thus more accurately reflect unbiased rates of energy expenditure. However, the choice of protocol may be a trade-off between their impact on behaviour, and hence accuracy, and their differences in precision. Adopting procedures that minimize the impact of TS protocols may be useful.

  19. Sero-prevalence of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in large ruminants at peri urban dairy farms near Islamabad, Pakistan

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an important, endemic, trans-boundary viral disease affecting livestock in Pakistan and associated with high economic losses. This survey was conducted to estimate sero-prevalence of FMD in large ruminants from peri-urban dairy farms near Islamabad. Serum samples were...

  20. Estimation of the most influential factors on the laser cutting process heat affected zone (HAZ) by adaptive neuro-fuzzy technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petković, Dalibor; Nikolić, Vlastimir; Milovančević, Miloš; Lazov, Lyubomir

    2016-07-01

    Heat affected zone (HAZ) of the laser cutting process may be developed on the basis on combination of different factors. In this investigation was analyzed the HAZ forecasting based on the different laser cutting parameters. The main aim in this article was to analyze the influence of three inputs on the HAZ of the laser cutting process. The method of ANFIS (adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system) was applied to the data in order to select the most influential factors for HAZ forecasting. Three inputs are considered: laser power, cutting speed and gas pressure. According the results the cutting speed has the highest influence on the HAZ forecasting (RMSE: 0.0553). Gas pressure has the smallest influence on the HAZ forecasting (RMSE: 0.0801). The results can be used in order to simplify HAZ prediction and analyzing.

  1. Population-Based Incidence and Prevalence of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

    PubMed Central

    Somers, Emily C.; Marder, Wendy; Cagnoli, Patricia; Lewis, Emily E.; DeGuire, Peter; Gordon, Caroline; Helmick, Charles G.; Wang, Lu; Wing, Jeffrey J.; Dhar, J. Patricia; Leisen, James; Shaltis, Diane; McCune, W. Joseph

    2014-01-01

    Objective To estimate the incidence and prevalence of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in a sociodemographically diverse southeastern Michigan source population of 2.4 million people. Methods SLE cases fulfilling the American College of Rheumatology classification criteria (primary case definition) or meeting rheumatologist-judged SLE criteria (secondary definition) and residing in Wayne or Washtenaw Counties during 2002–2004 were included. Case finding was performed from 6 source types, including hospitals and private specialists. Age-standardized rates were computed, and capture–recapture was performed to estimate underascertainment of cases. Results The overall age-adjusted incidence and prevalence (ACR definition) per 100,000 persons were 5.5 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 5.0–6.1) and 72.8 (95% CI 70.8–74.8). Among females, the incidence was 9.3 per 100,000 persons and the prevalence was 128.7 per 100,000 persons. Only 7 cases were estimated to have been missed by capture–recapture, adjustment for which did not materially affect the rates. SLE prevalence was 2.3-fold higher in black persons than in white persons, and 10-fold higher in females than in males. Among incident cases, the mean ± SD age at diagnosis was 39.3 ± 16.6 years. Black SLE patients had a higher proportion of renal disease and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) (40.5% and 15.3%, respectively) as compared to white SLE patients (18.8% and 4.5%, respectively). Black patients with renal disease were diagnosed as having SLE at younger age than white patients with renal disease (mean ± SD 34.4 ± 14.9 years versus 41.9 ± 21.3 years; P = 0.05). Conclusion SLE prevalence was higher than has been described in most other population-based studies and reached 1 in 537 among black female persons. There were substantial racial disparities in the burden of SLE, with black patients experiencing earlier age at diagnosis, >2-fold increases in SLE incidence and prevalence, and increased

  2. Prevalence of Doctor-Diagnosed Arthritis at State and County Levels - United States, 2014.

    PubMed

    Barbour, Kamil E; Helmick, Charles G; Boring, Michael; Zhang, Xingyou; Lu, Hua; Holt, James B

    2016-05-20

    Doctor-diagnosed arthritis is a common chronic condition that affects approximately 52.5 million (22.7%) adults in the United States and is a leading cause of disability (1,2). The prevalence of doctor-diagnosed arthritis has been well documented at the national level (1), but little has been published at the state level and the county level, where interventions are carried out and can have their greatest effect. To estimate the prevalence of doctor-diagnosed arthritis among adults at the state and county levels, CDC analyzed data from the 2014 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). This report summarizes the results of that analysis, which found that, for all 50 states and the District of Columbia (DC) overall, the age-standardized median prevalence of doctor-diagnosed arthritis was 24% (range = 18.8%-35.5%). The age-standardized model-predicted prevalence of doctor-diagnosed arthritis varied substantially by county, with estimates ranging from 15.8% to 38.6%. The high prevalence of arthritis in all counties, and the high frequency of arthritis-attributable limitations (1) among adults with arthritis, suggests that states and counties might benefit from expanding underused, evidence-based interventions for arthritis that can reduce arthritis symptoms and improve self-management.

  3. Endogenous amino nitrogen collected from pigs with end-to-end ileorectal anastomosis is affected by the method of estimation and altered by dietary fiber.

    PubMed

    Mariscal-Landín, G; Sève, B; Colléaux, Y; Lebreton, Y

    1995-01-01

    Endogenous protein loss at the end of the small intestine was determined in two experiments using 10 pigs surgically prepared with end-to-end ileo-rectal anastomosis to allow total collection of ileal digesta. In the first experiment pigs were fed graded protein levels of 0 (protein-free), 55, 110 or 165 g/kg diet. Optimal durations for the adaptation and collection periods were found to be 4 and 3 d, respectively (combination 4:3), as shown by the higher correlation coefficient (r2 = 0.95) between excreted and ingested nitrogen compared with the other combinations tested (5:2, 5:3, 9:3, 9:5). The estimated amounts of endogenous N and amino acids were less accurate and tended to be smaller (P < 0.20) when obtained by extrapolation to zero nitrogen intake than when measured in pigs fed the protein-free diet. The endogenous protein was rich in proline, glutamic acid, glycine, aspartic acid, serine and threonine. In comparison to other amino acid patterns, this composition suggested a low bacterial contamination of the digesta. In the second experiment three levels of dietary fiber from wheat straw, corn cobs and wood cellulose were studied in pigs fed protein-free diets. Between 17 and 34 g crude fiber/kg diet, fiber increased the endogenous losses of nitrogen and amino acids per kilogram of dry matter intake (P < 0.05), but the excretion reached a plateau at higher dietary fiber concentration (102 g/kg). In contrast, glucosamine and galactosamine excretion increased continuously and linearly (P < 0.05) with fiber intake. We conclude that endogenous amino acid loss may be considered constant at usual and high levels of the fibrous mixture under study.

  4. Prevalence of refractive error in Europe: the European Eye Epidemiology (E(3)) Consortium.

    PubMed

    Williams, Katie M; Verhoeven, Virginie J M; Cumberland, Phillippa; Bertelsen, Geir; Wolfram, Christian; Buitendijk, Gabriëlle H S; Hofman, Albert; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Vingerling, Johannes R; Kuijpers, Robert W A M; Höhn, René; Mirshahi, Alireza; Khawaja, Anthony P; Luben, Robert N; Erke, Maja Gran; von Hanno, Therese; Mahroo, Omar; Hogg, Ruth; Gieger, Christian; Cougnard-Grégoire, Audrey; Anastasopoulos, Eleftherios; Bron, Alain; Dartigues, Jean-François; Korobelnik, Jean-François; Creuzot-Garcher, Catherine; Topouzis, Fotis; Delcourt, Cécile; Rahi, Jugnoo; Meitinger, Thomas; Fletcher, Astrid; Foster, Paul J; Pfeiffer, Norbert; Klaver, Caroline C W; Hammond, Christopher J

    2015-04-01

    To estimate the prevalence of refractive error in adults across Europe. Refractive data (mean spherical equivalent) collected between 1990 and 2013 from fifteen population-based cohort and cross-sectional studies of the European Eye Epidemiology (E(3)) Consortium were combined in a random effects meta-analysis stratified by 5-year age intervals and gender. Participants were excluded if they were identified as having had cataract surgery, retinal detachment, refractive surgery or other factors that might influence refraction. Estimates of refractive error prevalence were obtained including the following classifications: myopia ≤-0.75 diopters (D), high myopia ≤-6D, hyperopia ≥1D and astigmatism ≥1D. Meta-analysis of refractive error was performed for 61,946 individuals from fifteen studies with median age ranging from 44 to 81 and minimal ethnic variation (98 % European ancestry). The age-standardised prevalences (using the 2010 European Standard Population, limited to those ≥25 and <90 years old) were: myopia 30.6 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 30.4-30.9], high myopia 2.7 % (95 % CI 2.69-2.73), hyperopia 25.2 % (95 % CI 25.0-25.4) and astigmatism 23.9 % (95 % CI 23.7-24.1). Age-specific estimates revealed a high prevalence of myopia in younger participants [47.2 % (CI 41.8-52.5) in 25-29 years-olds]. Refractive error affects just over a half of European adults. The greatest burden of refractive error is due to myopia, with high prevalence rates in young adults. Using the 2010 European population estimates, we estimate there are 227.2 million people with myopia across Europe.

  5. Autism spectrum disorder prevalence and proximity to industrial facilities releasing arsenic, lead or mercury.

    PubMed

    Dickerson, Aisha S; Rahbar, Mohammad H; Han, Inkyu; Bakian, Amanda V; Bilder, Deborah A; Harrington, Rebecca A; Pettygrove, Sydney; Durkin, Maureen; Kirby, Russell S; Wingate, Martha Slay; Tian, Lin Hui; Zahorodny, Walter M; Pearson, Deborah A; Moyé, Lemuel A; Baio, Jon

    2015-12-01

    Prenatal and perinatal exposures to air pollutants have been shown to adversely affect birth outcomes in offspring and may contribute to prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). For this ecologic study, we evaluated the association between ASD prevalence, at the census tract level, and proximity of tract centroids to the closest industrial facilities releasing arsenic, lead or mercury during the 1990s. We used 2000 to 2008 surveillance data from five sites of the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) network and 2000 census data to estimate prevalence. Multi-level negative binomial regression models were used to test associations between ASD prevalence and proximity to industrial facilities in existence from 1991 to 1999 according to the US Environmental Protection Agency Toxics Release Inventory (USEPA-TRI). Data for 2489 census tracts showed that after adjustment for demographic and socio-economic area-based characteristics, ASD prevalence was higher in census tracts located in the closest 10th percentile compared of distance to those in the furthest 50th percentile (adjusted RR=1.27, 95% CI: (1.00, 1.61), P=0.049). The findings observed in this study are suggestive of the association between urban residential proximity to industrial facilities emitting air pollutants and higher ASD prevalence.

  6. Epidemiology of Huntington disease: first post-HTT gene analysis of prevalence in Italy.

    PubMed

    Squitieri, F; Griguoli, A; Capelli, G; Porcellini, A; D'Alessio, B

    2016-03-01

    Huntington disease (HD) prevalence shows geographic variability and has been recently updated by taking into account the mutation diagnostic test. In Italy, the last epidemiological estimation was reported well before the HTT gene discovery and the availability of the corresponding genetic test. It reported a prevalence of affected subjects ranging between 2.3 and 4.8/100,000 in some restricted areas of Northern Italy. We have performed a service-based epidemiological analysis in a very restricted geographic area named Molise, where our institutions currently operate and represent the only point of reference for rare neuropsychiatric diseases. The estimated prevalence rate found was 10.85/100,000 (95% confidence interval (CI): 7.20-14.50), remarkably higher than that previously described before the gene test analysis was available, and expected to an increase of an additional 17% by 2030, because of Italian population aging. According to our analysis, we estimate that about 6500 subjects are currently affected by HD in Italy, and that this number will further increase in the next decades because of population aging, variable phenotype penetrance and improved life expectancy.

  7. Brood stock segregation of spring chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha by use of the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and the fluorescent antibody technique (FAT) affects the prevalence and levels of Renibacterium salmoninarum infection in progeny

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pascho, Ronald J.; Elliott, Diane G.; Streufert, Jonathan M.

    1991-01-01

    A study of the effect of maternal Renibacterium salmoninarum infection levels on the prevalence and levels of bacterial kidney disease (BKD) in progeny fish was conducted at a production salmon hatchery. A total of 302 mating pairs of spring chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha was screened in August 1988 for R. salmoninarum by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). On the basis of ELISA testing of kidney tissues from all fish and the testing of ovarian fluid samples from a subsample of the females by a direct membrane filtration fluorescent antibody technique (MF-FAT), selected egg lots were segregated into 2 groups of 30 egg lots or about 135 000 eggs each. One group contained egg lots from male and female parents that had low R. salmoninarum infection levels or tested negative for R. salmoninarum (low-BKD group), and the other group contained egg lots from female parents with relatively high R. salmoninarum infection levels and male parents with various infection levels (high-BKD group). The progeny groups were maintained in separate rearing units supplied with untreated river water, and were monitored for R. salmoninarum by the ELISA until they were released from the hatchery in April 1990. Total mortality of the juvenile fish was higher (p = 0.0001) in the high-BKD group (20%) than in the low-BKD group (10 %). Mortality in the high-BKD group was highest after the fish were moved from nursery tanks to raceways, and clinical BKD became evident in this group. During the 11 mo of raceway rearing, mortality in the high-BKD group was 17 % compared with 5 % for the low-BKD group. An ELISA analysis of smolts just before release showed an R. salmoninarum infection rate of 85 % in the high-BKD group and 62 % in the low-BKD group. Of the positive fish, 98 % in the low-BKD group and 55 % in the high-BKD group had low infection levels, whereas 36 % in the high-BKD group and only 1 % in the low-BKD group had high infection levels. The results of this research

  8. Prevalence of DSM-IV Major Depression Among U.S. Military Personnel: Meta-Analysis and Simulation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-08-01

    Angermeyer MC, Konig HH, Riedel-Heller SG: Cost-of- illness studies of depression : a systematic review. J Affect Disord 2007; 98(1–2): 29–43. 2. Kessler RC...the U.S. All rights reserved. MILITARY MEDICINE, 177, 8:47, 2012 Prevalence of DSM-IV Major Depression Among U.S. Military Personnel: Meta-Analysis...estimated the prevalence of recent Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-IV (DSM-IV) major depression (MD) among U.S. military personnel

  9. Burden of Type 2 Diabetes in Mexico: Past, Current and Future Prevalence and Incidence Rates

    PubMed Central

    Meza, Rafael; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba; Reynoso-Noverón, Nancy; Palacio-Mejia, Lina Sofia; Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo; Hernández-Ávila, Mauricio

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Mexico diabetes prevalence has increased dramatically in recent years. However, no national incidence estimates exist, hampering the assessment of diabetes trends and precluding the development of burden of disease analyses to inform public health policy decision-making. Here we provide evidence regarding current magnitude of diabetes in Mexico and its future trends. Methods We used data from the Mexico National Health and Nutrition Survey, and age-period-cohort models to estimate prevalence and incidence of self-reported diagnosed diabetes by age, sex, calendar-year (1960–2012), and birth-cohort (1920–1980). We project future rates under three alternative incidence scenarios using demographic projections of the Mexican population from 2010–2050 and a Multi-cohort Diabetes Markov Model. Results Adult (ages 20+) diagnosed diabetes prevalence in Mexico increased from 7% to 8.9% from 2006 to 2012. Diabetes prevalence increases with age, peaking around ages 65–68 to then decrease. Age-specific incidence follows similar patterns, but peaks around ages 57–59. We estimate that diagnosed diabetes incidence increased exponentially during 1960–2012, roughly doubling every 10 years. Projected rates under three age-specific incidence scenarios suggest diabetes prevalence among adults (ages 20+) may reach 13.7–22.5% by 2050, affecting 15–25 million individuals, with a lifetime risk of 1 in 3 to 1 in 2. Conclusions Diabetes prevalence in Mexico will continue to increase even if current incidence rates remain unchanged. Continued implementation of policies to reduce obesity rates, increase physical activity, and improve population diet, in tandem with diabetes surveillance and other risk control measures is paramount to substantially reduce the burden of diabetes in Mexico. PMID:26546108

  10. Prevalence of prediabetes and its association with obesity among college students in Kuwait: A cross-sectional study.

    PubMed

    Ben Haider, Nour Y; Ziyab, Ali H

    2016-09-01

    This cross-sectional study sought to estimate the prevalence of prediabetes and assess its association with obesity among young adults in Kuwait; a country with a high prevalence of obesity and diabetes. The estimated prevalence of prediabetes was 6.3% (95% CI: 4.8-8.1) and obesity was associated with elevated prediabetes prevalence.

  11. Disease prevalence in the English population: a comparison of primary care registers and prevalence models.

    PubMed

    Martin, David; Wright, James A

    2009-01-01

    The Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) is a UK system for monitoring general practitioner (GP) activity and performance, introduced in 2004. The objective of this paper is to explore the potential of QOF datasets as a basis for better understanding geographical variations in disease prevalence in England. In an ecological study, prevalence estimates for four common disease domains (coronary heart disease (CHD), asthma, hypertension and diabetes) were derived from the 2004-2005 QOF primary care disease registers for 354 English Local Authority Districts (LADs). These were compared with synthetic estimates from four prevalence models and with self-reported measures of general health from the 2001 census. Prevalence models were recalculated for LADs using demographic and deprivation data from the census. Results were mapped spatially and cross-tabulated against a national classification of local authorities. The four disease domains display different spatial distributions and different spatial relationships with the corresponding prevalence model. For example, the prevalence model for CHD under-estimated QOF cases in northern England, but this north-south pattern was not evident for the other disease domains. The census-derived health measures were strongly correlated with CHD, but not with the other disease domains. The relationship between modelled prevalence and QOF disease registers differs by disease domain, implying that there is no simple cross-domain effect of the QOF process on prevalence figures. Given reliable synthetic estimates of small area prevalence for the QOF disease domains, one potential application of the QOF dataset may be in assessing the geographical extent of under-diagnosis for each domain.

  12. A Review of the Prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorder in Asia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sun, Xiang; Allison, Carrie

    2010-01-01

    Electronic databases and bibliographies were searched for English language articles on the prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorder in Asia over time to estimate prevalence. The overall reported prevalence of ASD in recent studies was higher than the previously reported in Asia. The average prevalence of ASD before 1980 was around 1.9/10,000 while…

  13. High Prevalence of Obesity in Ambulatory Children and Adolescents with Intellectual Disability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stewart, L.; Van de Ven, L.; Katsarou, V.; Rentziou, E.; Doran, M.; Jackson, P.; Reilly, J. J.; Wilson, D.

    2009-01-01

    Background: Obesity prevalence is unusually high among adults with intellectual disability (ID). There is limited and conflicting evidence on obesity prevalence among ambulatory children and adolescents with ID. The present study aimed to estimate obesity prevalence in this group and to compare with population prevalence. Methods: Survey of nine…

  14. Prevalence of Disorders Recorded in Dogs Attending Primary-Care Veterinary Practices in England

    PubMed Central

    O′Neill, Dan G.; Church, David B.; McGreevy, Paul D.; Thomson, Peter C.; Brodbelt, Dave C.

    2014-01-01

    Purebred dog health is thought to be compromised by an increasing occurence of inherited diseases but inadequate prevalence data on common disorders have hampered efforts to prioritise health reforms. Analysis of primary veterinary practice clinical data has been proposed for reliable estimation of disorder prevalence in dogs. Electronic patient record (EPR) data were collected on 148,741 dogs attending 93 clinics across central and south-eastern England. Analysis in detail of a random sample of EPRs relating to 3,884 dogs from 89 clinics identified the most frequently recorded disorders as otitis externa (prevalence 10.2%, 95% CI: 9.1–11.3), periodontal disease (9.3%, 95% CI: 8.3–10.3) and anal sac impaction (7.1%, 95% CI: 6.1–8.1). Using syndromic classification, the most prevalent body location affected was the head-and-neck (32.8%, 95% CI: 30.7–34.9), the most prevalent organ system affected was the integument (36.3%, 95% CI: 33.9–38.6) and the most prevalent pathophysiologic process diagnosed was inflammation (32.1%, 95% CI: 29.8–34.3). Among the twenty most-frequently recorded disorders, purebred dogs had a significantly higher prevalence compared with crossbreds for three: otitis externa (P = 0.001), obesity (P = 0.006) and skin mass lesion (P = 0.033), and popular breeds differed significantly from each other in their prevalence for five: periodontal disease (P = 0.002), overgrown nails (P = 0.004), degenerative joint disease (P = 0.005), obesity (P = 0.001) and lipoma (P = 0.003). These results fill a crucial data gap in disorder prevalence information and assist with disorder prioritisation. The results suggest that, for maximal impact, breeding reforms should target commonly-diagnosed complex disorders that are amenable to genetic improvement and should place special focus on at-risk breeds. Future studies evaluating disorder severity and duration will augment the usefulness of the disorder prevalence

  15. Prevalence of disorders recorded in dogs attending primary-care veterinary practices in England.

    PubMed

    O Neill, Dan G; Church, David B; McGreevy, Paul D; Thomson, Peter C; Brodbelt, Dave C

    2014-01-01

    Purebred dog health is thought to be compromised by an increasing occurence of inherited diseases but inadequate prevalence data on common disorders have hampered efforts to prioritise health reforms. Analysis of primary veterinary practice clinical data has been proposed for reliable estimation of disorder prevalence in dogs. Electronic patient record (EPR) data were collected on 148,741 dogs attending 93 clinics across central and south-eastern England. Analysis in detail of a random sample of EPRs relating to 3,884 dogs from 89 clinics identified the most frequently recorded disorders as otitis externa (prevalence 10.2%, 95% CI: 9.1-11.3), periodontal disease (9.3%, 95% CI: 8.3-10.3) and anal sac impaction (7.1%, 95% CI: 6.1-8.1). Using syndromic classification, the most prevalent body location affected was the head-and-neck (32.8%, 95% CI: 30.7-34.9), the most prevalent organ system affected was the integument (36.3%, 95% CI: 33.9-38.6) and the most prevalent pathophysiologic process diagnosed was inflammation (32.1%, 95% CI: 29.8-34.3). Among the twenty most-frequently recorded disorders, purebred dogs had a significantly higher prevalence compared with crossbreds for three: otitis externa (P = 0.001), obesity (P = 0.006) and skin mass lesion (P = 0.033), and popular breeds differed significantly from each other in their prevalence for five: periodontal disease (P = 0.002), overgrown nails (P = 0.004), degenerative joint disease (P = 0.005), obesity (P = 0.001) and lipoma (P = 0.003). These results fill a crucial data gap in disorder prevalence information and assist with disorder prioritisation. The results suggest that, for maximal impact, breeding reforms should target commonly-diagnosed complex disorders that are amenable to genetic improvement and should place special focus on at-risk breeds. Future studies evaluating disorder severity and duration will augment the usefulness of the disorder prevalence information reported

  16. Prevalence of anaemia, syphilis and hepatitis B in pregnant women in Nausori, Fiji

    PubMed Central

    Tayler-Smith, K.; Khogali, M.; Marks, G. B.

    2013-01-01

    Setting: An antenatal clinic serving a population of 47 604 in Nausori, Fiji. Objective: 1) To estimate the prevalence of anaemia, syphilis and hepatitis B in pregnant women attending their first antenatal visit; and 2) to estimate the uptake of treatment for syphilis and for the prevention of hepatitis B transmission in affected individuals. Design: Retrospective review of the clinic register and patient records for the year 2011. Results: The prevalence of anaemia, hepatitis B and syphilis were respectively 22%, 2% and 5%. Among women with syphilis, 78% of those for whom data were available received a complete course of three doses of penicillin during their pregnancy, and 83% of babies born to women with hepatitis B received hepatitis B immunoglobulin. Conclusion: The prevalence of anaemia in pregnant women has declined but remains high, and further research is required to identify the major causes of this condition in Fiji. The prevalence of syphilis has remained static, while hepatitis B has decreased over the past decade. There are some gaps in the implementation of effective interventions to manage these conditions in pregnant women. PMID:26393000

  17. Understanding the relationship between prevalence of microfilariae and antigenaemia using a model of lymphatic filariasis infection

    PubMed Central

    Irvine, Michael A.; Njenga, Sammy M.; Gunawardena, Shamini; Njeri Wamae, Claire; Cano, Jorge; Brooker, Simon J.; Deirdre Hollingsworth, T.

    2016-01-01

    Background Lymphatic filariasis is a debilitating neglected tropical disease that affects impoverished communities. Rapid diagnostic tests of antigenaemia are a practical alternative to parasitological tests of microfilaraemia for mapping and surveillance. However the relationship between these two methods of measuring burden has previously been difficult to interpret. Methods A statistical model of the distribution of worm burden and microfilariae (mf) and resulting antigenaemic and mf prevalence was developed and fitted to surveys of two contrasting sentinel sites undergoing interventions. The fitted model was then used to explore the relationship in various pre- and post-intervention scenarios. Results The model had good quantitative agreement with the data and provided estimates of the reduction in mf output due to treatment. When extrapolating the results to a range of prevalences there was good qualitative agreement with published data. Conclusions The observed relationship between antigenamic and mf prevalence is a natural consequence of the relationship between prevalence and intensity of adult worms and mf production. The method described here allows the estimation of key epidemiological parameters and consequently gives insight into the efficacy of an intervention programme. PMID:26822604

  18. The Prevalence of Marfan Syndrome in Korea

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of Marfan syndrome (MFS) in Korean adults. Data were collected from the National Health Insurance Service in Korea from 2006 through 2013. The data consisted of primary diagnoses related to MFS (Q87.4) diagnosed according to the 10th revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems. The age-standardized prevalence of MFS in adults was calculated using the estimated Korean population in 2010 as a reference. Overall, the prevalence of MFS was 0.90 per 100,000 persons in 2006 and 2.27 in 2013. For males in 2013, the prevalence per 100,000 persons was 2.61 in overall and 4.32 in 15–19 years-old. For females in 2013, the prevalence per 100,000 persons was 1.92 in overall and 3.02 in 10–14 years-old. In conclusion, currently, the age-standardized overall prevalence of MFS was 2.27 persons per 100,000 persons. And the overall age-standardized prevalence of MFS increased between 2006 and 2013 especially in 15–19 years-old males and 10–14 years-old females. PMID:28244281

  19. The Prevalence of Migraine in Iran: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Farhadi, Zeynab; Alidoost, Saeideh; Behzadifar, Meysam; Mohammadibakhsh, Roghayeh; Khodadadi, Najmeh; Sepehrian, Razieh; Sohrabi, Rahim; Taheri Mirghaed, Masood; Salemi, Morteza; Ravaghi, Hamid; Behzadifar, Masoud

    2016-01-01

    Context Migraine is a major dilemma and problem which affects public health and results to reduced quality of life. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of migraine in Iran. Evidence Acquisition A systematic search was conducted using Pub Med, Web of Science, Embase, Scopus, Ovid, Google Scholar, as well as Iranian databases including: MagIran, IranMedex and Scientific Information Databank, from 2000 to November, 2015. The Der-Simonian/Laird’s random-effects model, with a 95% confidence interval was employed to estimate the overall pooled prevalence. Heterogeneity was investigated using subgroup analysis based on sample size and time of study. Results Thirty studies comprising 33,873 participants met the inclusion criteria for the analysis. The overall prevalence of migraine in Iran was 14% (95% CI, 12% to 17%), respectively. The overall prevalence was (8%; 95% CI 6% to 11%) according to the international classification of headache disorders (ICHD-1), (17%; 95% CI 13% to 21%) according to ICHD-2, and (18%; 95% CI 7% to 30%) according to the other questionnaire for migraine screener (ID Migraine), respectively. Meta-regression demonstrated that the prevalence of migraine increased by year of publication and decreased by sample size. Conclusions The prevalence of migraine in Iran, which was estimated as 14%, was similar or even higher than that reported world-wide. Migraine can have impact on the economic productivity of any country; therefore it is necessary to educate people on the early detection and the discovery of an effective treatment of migraine. More thorough review of further studies in this field is recommended. PMID:28184330

  20. FASD Prevalence among Schoolchildren in Poland

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Okulicz-Kozaryn, Katarzyna; Borkowska, Magdalena; Brzózka, Krzysztof

    2017-01-01

    Background: Prenatal Alcohol Exposure is a major cause of brain damage and developmental delay, known as Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders (FASD) but in Poland is rarely diagnosed and the scale of problem is not known. Methods: An active case ascertainment approach was applied to estimate the prevalence of FASD among 7-9 years olds. Pre-screening…

  1. Prevalence of SLI in Language Resource Units

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Archibald, Lisa M. D.; Gathercole, Susan E.

    2006-01-01

    Many children with communication impairments whose educational needs cannot be met in mainstream classrooms receive additional resource support in classroom units that specialise in the coordination and provision of academic teaching and speech language therapy in the UK. This study estimated the prevalence of Specific Language Impairment (SLI)…

  2. Prevalence and Consequences of the Proximal Junctional Kyphosis After Spinal Deformity Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Yan, Chunda; Li, Yong; Yu, Zhange

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence and patient outcomes of proximal junctional kyphosis (PJK) in pediatric patients and adolescents who received surgical interventions for the treatment of a spinal deformity. Literature was searched in electronic databases, and studies were selected by following précised eligibility criteria. Percent prevalence values of the PJK in individual studies were pooled to achieve a weighted effect size under the random effects model. Subgroup and meta-regression analyses were performed to appraise the factors affecting PJK prevalence. Twenty-six studies (2024 patients) were included in this meta-analysis. Average age of the patients was 13.8 ± 2.75 years of which 32 ± 20 % were males. Average follow-up was 51.6 ± 38.8 (range 17 ± 13 to 218 ± 60) months. Overall, the percent prevalence of PJK (95% confidence interval) was 11.02 (10.5, 11.5) %; P < 0.00001 which was inversely associated with age (meta-regression coefficient: –1.607 [–2.86, –0.36]; 0.014). Revision surgery rate in the patients with PJK was 10%. The prevalence of PJK was positively associated with the proximal junctional angle at last follow-up (coefficient: 2.248; P = 0.012) and the change in the proximal junctional angle from surgery to last follow-up (coefficient: 2.139; P = 0.014) but not with preoperative proximal junctional angle. The prevalence of PJK in the children and adolescent patients is 11%. About 10% of those affected require revision surgery. PMID:27196453

  3. Drugs affecting the eye.

    PubMed

    Taylor, F

    1985-08-01

    cataract suspected to be induced by allopurinol; numerous additional cases have been reported to the registry since. Phenothiazine, with an estimated 3% incidence of side effects, appears to be safer than other antipsychotic drugs, but the rate of ocular effects increases with the duration of therapy. Thioridazine and chlorpromazine are known to cause lens deposits and pigmentary retinopathy. There is a significantly high prevalence of thrombophlebitis and pseudotumor cerebri among women who use OCs and thrombotic retinal vascular disease, such as retinal vein occulsion, might be linked with them. It also is probable that, because of altered hydration of the cornea, there is a decreased tolerance to contact lenses.

  4. A systematic review of the incidence and prevalence of cardiac, cerebrovascular, and peripheral vascular disease in multiple sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Reider, Nadia; Cohen, Jeffrey; Stuve, Olaf; Trojano, Maria; Cutter, Gary; Reingold, Stephen; Sorensen, Per Soelberg

    2015-01-01

    Background: Findings regarding the prevalence of vascular comorbidities in multiple sclerosis (MS) are conflicting. Objective: The objective of this review is to estimate the incidence and prevalence of vascular comorbidities and predisposing comorbidities in persons with MS and to assess the quality of the included studies. Methods: The PubMed, EMBASE, SCOPUS and Web of Knowledge databases, conference proceedings, and reference lists of retrieved articles were searched. One reviewer abstracted data using a standardized data collection form, while the second reviewer verified the abstraction. Included studies were assessed qualitatively. Quantitatively, we assessed studies using the I2 statistic, and conducted meta-analyses for population-based studies only. Results: The prevalence of hypertension and hyperlipidemia exceeded 10% in the MS population and increased with age. While the prevalence of ischemic heart disease, congestive heart failure, and stroke were less than 5% overall, the prevalence of these conditions exceeded expectations when compared to the general population. Cardiac valvular disease, however, affected the MS population less often than expected. Problems with study quality were common. Conclusion: Despite the relatively high prevalence of some vascular comorbidities in the MS population, important gaps exist in our understanding of their epidemiology. Most of our knowledge is based on studies conducted in a small number of regions. PMID:25533300

  5. Prevalence of Titin Truncating Variants in General Population

    PubMed Central

    Akinrinade, Oyediran; Koskenvuo, Juha W.; Alastalo, Tero-Pekka

    2015-01-01

    Background Truncating titin (TTN) mutations, especially in A-band region, represent the most common cause of dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). Clinical interpretation of these variants can be challenging, as these variants are also present in reference populations. We carried out systematic analyses of TTN truncating variants (TTNtv) in publicly available reference populations, including, for the first time, data from Exome Aggregation Consortium (ExAC). The goal was to establish more accurate estimate of prevalence of different TTNtv to allow better clinical interpretation of these findings. Methods and Results Using data from 1000 Genomes Project, Exome Sequencing Project (ESP) and ExAC, we estimated the prevalence of TTNtv in the population. In the three population datasets, 52–54% of TTNtv were not affecting all TTN transcripts. The frequency of truncations affecting all transcripts in ExAC was 0.36% (0.32% - 0.41%, 95% CI) and 0.19% (0.16% - 0.23%, 95% CI) for those affecting the A-band. In the A-band region, the prevalences of frameshift, nonsense and essential splice site variants were 0.057%, 0.090%, and 0.047% respectively. Cga/Tga (arginine/nonsense–R/*) transitional change at CpG mutation hotspots was the most frequent type of TTN nonsense mutation accounting for 91.3% (21/23) of arginine residue nonsense mutation (R/*) at TTN A-band region. Non-essential splice-site variants had significantly lower proportion of private variants and higher proportion of low-frequency variants compared to essential splice-site variants (P = 0.01; P = 5.1 X 10−4, respectively). Conclusion A-band TTNtv are more rare in the general population than previously reported. Based on this analysis, one in 500 carries a truncation in TTN A-band suggesting the penetrance of these potentially harmful variants is still poorly understood, and some of these variants do not manifest as autosomal dominant DCM. This calls for caution when interpreting TTNtv in individuals and families

  6. Minimum prevalence of chromosome 22q11 deletions

    SciTech Connect

    Wilson, D.I.; Cross, I.E.; Burn, J.

    1994-09-01

    Submicroscopic deletions from within chromosome 22q11 are associated with DiGeorge (DGS), velocardiofacial (VCFS) and conotruncal anomaly syndromes and isolated congenital heart defects. In 1993 our pediatric cardiologists clinically referred all children in whom a chromosome 22q11 deletion was suspected for fluorescent in situ hybridization studies using probes from the DGS critical region. 10 affected individuals have been identified to date from the children born in 1993 in the Northern Region served exclusively by our center. A further case, the subsequent pregnancy in one of these families was affected and terminated on the basis of a major heart malformation. In the years 1988-92, for which we have complete ascertainment, there were 1009 heart defects among 191,700 births (mean 202 per annum). Thus we estimate that chromosome 22q11 deletions were the cause of at least 5% of congenital heart disease. As not all children with chromosome 22q11 deletions have a heart defect, this gives an estimated minimum prevalence of 1/4000 live births.

  7. Prevalence and architecture of de novo mutations in developmental disorders.

    PubMed

    2017-02-23

    The genomes of individuals with severe, undiagnosed developmental disorders are enriched in damaging de novo mutations (DNMs) in developmentally important genes. Here we have sequenced the exomes of 4,293 families containing individuals with developmental disorders, and meta-analysed these data with data from another 3,287 individuals with similar disorders. We show that the most important factors influencing the diagnostic yield of DNMs are the sex of the affected individual, the relatedness of their parents, whether close relatives are affected and the parental ages. We identified 94 genes enriched in damaging DNMs, including 14 that previously lacked compelling evidence of involvement in developmental disorders. We have also characterized the phenotypic diversity among these disorders. We estimate that 42% of our cohort carry pathogenic DNMs in coding sequences; approximately half of these DNMs disrupt gene function and the remainder result in altered protein function. We estimate that developmental disorders caused by DNMs have an average prevalence of 1 in 213 to 1 in 448 births, depending on parental age. Given current global demographics, this equates to almost 400,000 children born per year.

  8. Prevalence estimation of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) antibodies in dogs from Finland using novel dog anti-TBEV IgG MAb-capture and IgG immunofluorescence assays based on recombinant TBEV subviral particles.

    PubMed

    Levanov, Lev; Vera, Cristina Pérez; Vapalahti, Olli

    2016-07-01

    Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is one of the most dangerous human neurological infections occurring in Europe and Northern parts of Asia with thousands of cases and millions vaccinated against it. The risk of TBE might be assessed through analyses of the samples taken from wildlife or from animals which are in close contact with humans. Dogs have been shown to be a good sentinel species for these studies. Serological assays for diagnosis of TBE in dogs are mainly based on purified and inactivated TBEV antigens. Here we describe novel dog anti-TBEV IgG monoclonal antibody (MAb)-capture assay which is based on TBEV prME subviral particles expressed in mammalian cells from Semliki Forest virus (SFV) replicon as well as IgG immunofluorescence assay (IFA) which is based on Vero E6 cells transfected with the same SFV replicon. We further demonstrate their use in a small-scale TBEV seroprevalence study of dogs representing different regions of Finland. Altogether, 148 dog serum samples were tested by novel assays and results were compared to those obtained with a commercial IgG enzyme immunoassay (EIA), hemagglutination inhibition test and IgG IFA with TBEV infected cells. Compared to reference tests, the sensitivities of the developed assays were 90-100% and the specificities of the two assays were 100%. Analysis of the dog serum samples showed a seroprevalence of 40% on Åland Islands and 6% on Southwestern archipelago of Finland. In conclusion, a specific and sensitive EIA and IFA for the detection of IgG antibodies in canine sera were developed. Based on these assays the seroprevalence of IgG antibodies in dogs from different regions of Finland was assessed and was shown to parallel the known human disease burden as the Southwestern archipelago and Åland Islands in particular had considerable dog TBEV antibody prevalence and represent areas with high risk of TBE for humans.

  9. Challenges of respondent driven sampling to assess sexual behaviour and estimate the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and syphilis in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Singapore.

    PubMed

    Chua, Arlene C; Chen, Mark Ic; Cavailler, Philippe; Jiang, Lili; Abdullah, Mohammed Ridzwan; Ng, Oon Tek; Chio, Martin; Koe, Stuart; Tay, Joanne; Wong, Mee Lian; Chan, Roy

    2013-07-01

    There is a lack of representative samples to provide reliable and accurate seroprevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) as well as behavioural information among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Singapore. We used respondent driven sampling (RDS) to recruit MSM. Participants completed a survey used by Asian Internet MSM Sex Survey (AIMSS) and were tested for HIV and syphilis. We compared the characteristics of the RDS participants with STI diagnosis against those who did not have any STI diagnosis in the past 6 months. We compared RDS participants with AIMSS participants. Of 72 MSM recruited, 1 was positive for HIV (1.3%) and 4 (5.5%) tested positive for syphilis. Median age was 30 years and majority was Chinese (69.4%). RDS participants who had any STI diagnosis reported to have more use of recreational drugs (P = 0.006), and lower condom use (P = 0.054). Comparing RDS participants (n = 72) with the AIMSS participants (n = 2075), RDS respondents had ≥1 male partner in the past 6 months (P = 0.003), more casual sex partners (P = 0.012) and more STI symptoms (P = 0.019). There was no difference in terms of HIV testing and recreational drug use. The HIV and syphilis seroprevalence rates from our study are similar to previous reports conducted in high-risk MSM. In contrast to other settings, RDS did not work well among MSM in Singapore. The public health implications of our study highlight the challenges in obtaining data for HIV surveillance in assessing prevalence and risk behaviours among MSM.

  10. Challenges of Estimating the Annual Caseload of Severe Acute Malnutrition: The Case of Niger

    PubMed Central

    Hallarou, Mahaman; Gérard, Jean-Christophe; Donnen, Philippe; Macq, Jean

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Reliable prospective estimates of annual severe acute malnutrition (SAM) caseloads for treatment are needed for policy decisions and planning of quality services in the context of competing public health priorities and limited resources. This paper compares the reliability of SAM caseloads of children 6–59 months of age in Niger estimated from prevalence at the start of the year and counted from incidence at the end of the year. Methods Secondary data from two health districts for 2012 and the country overall for 2013 were used to calculate annual caseload of SAM. Prevalence and coverage were extracted from survey reports, and incidence from weekly surveillance systems. Results The prospective caseload estimate derived from prevalence and duration of illness underestimated the true burden. Similar incidence was derived from two weekly surveillance systems, but differed from that obtained from the monthly system. Incidence conversion factors were two to five times higher than recommended. Discussion Obtaining reliable prospective caseloads was challenging because prevalence is unsuitable for estimating incidence of SAM. Different SAM indicators identified different SAM populations, and duration of illness, expected contact coverage and population figures were inaccurate. The quality of primary data measurement, recording and reporting affected incidence numbers from surveillance. Coverage estimated in population surveys was rarely available, and coverage obtained by comparing admissions with prospective caseload estimates was unrealistic or impractical. Conclusions Caseload estimates derived from prevalence are unreliable and should be used with caution. Policy and service decisions that depend on these numbers may weaken performance of service delivery. Niger may improve SAM surveillance by simplifying and improving primary data collection and methods using innovative information technologies for single data entry at the first contact with the health

  11. Prevalence of diabetes and impaired fasting glucose in Peru: report from PERUDIAB, a national urban population-based longitudinal study

    PubMed Central

    Seclen, Segundo N; Rosas, Moises E; Arias, Arturo J; Huayta, Ernesto; Medina, Cecilia A

    2015-01-01

    Objectives We aimed to estimate the prevalences of diabetes and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) in a national sample in Peru and assess the relationships with selected sociodemographic variables. Methods We estimated prevalence in PERUDIAB study participants, a nationwide, stratified urban and suburban population selected by random cluster sampling. Between 2010 and 2012, questionnaires were completed and blood tests obtained from 1677 adults ≥25 years of age. Known diabetes was defined as participants having been told so by a doctor or nurse and/or receiving insulin or oral antidiabetic agents. Newly diagnosed diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose ≥126 mg/dL determined during the study and without a previous diabetes diagnosis. IFG was defined as fasting plasma glucose of 100–125 mg/dL. Results The estimated national prevalence of diabetes was 7.0% (95% CI 5.3% to 8.7%) and it was 8.4% (95% CI 5.6% to 11.3%) in metropolitan Lima. No gender differences were detected. Known and newly diagnosed diabetes prevalences were estimated as 4.2% and 2.8%, respectively. A logistic regression response surface model showed a complex trend for an increased prevalence of diabetes in middle-aged individuals and in those with no formal education. Diabetes prevalence was higher in coastal (8.2%) than in highlands (4.5%; p=0.03), and jungle (3.5%; p<0.02) regions. The estimated national prevalence of IFG was 22.4%, higher in males than in females (28.3% vs 19.1%; p<0.001), and higher in coastal (26.4%) than in highlands (17.4%; p=0.03), but not jungle regions (14.9%; p=0.07). Conclusions This study confirms diabetes as an important public health problem, especially for middle-aged individuals and those with no formal education. 40% of the affected individuals were undiagnosed. The elevated prevalence of IFG shows that nearly a quarter of the adult population of Peru has an increased risk of diabetes. PMID:26512325

  12. Prevalence of Ovine Haemonchosis in Wukro, Ethiopia

    PubMed Central

    Gebresilassie, Lidya

    2015-01-01

    Background. Haemonchosis caused by Haemonchus contortus is a predominant, highly pathogenic, and economically important disease of sheep and goats. Objective. Assessing the prevalence of Haemonchus parasite and its associated risk factors in sheep slaughtered at different restaurants of Wukro. Methods. Cross-sectional study using random sampling from November 2013 to April 2014 in a total of 384 sheep was conducted and SPSS version 20 software using descriptive statistics was used for data analysis and P < 0.05 was considered significant. Result. The overall prevalence of Haemonchus contortus was 40.9% (n = 157). The prevalence in medium body condition 27.3% (n = 105) varies significantly from that of good body condition 13.5% (n = 52) (P < 0.05). Moreover, there was significant variation (P < 0.05) in the prevalence in young and adult sheep with rates of 21.9% (n = 84) and 19% (n = 73), respectively. At the same time, there is significant variation (P < 0.05) in male and female sheep with prevalence of 29.7% (n = 114) and 11.2% (n = 43), respectively. The prevalence of 25.3% (n = 97) in sheep that originated from Negash compared to Wukro and Agulae showed no significant variation (P > 0.05). Conclusion. The current finding revealed that significant numbers of sheep were affected by the parasites. Hence strategic deworming with good husbandry practice should be implemented. PMID:25688297

  13. Suicide and Firearm Prevalence: Are Youth Disproportionately Affected?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Birckmayer, Johanna; Hemenway, David

    2001-01-01

    The effect of firearm availability on suicide may differ among age groups. Regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between suicide rates and household firearm ownership for four age groups in the nine census regions from 1979 to 1994, adjusting for regional divorce rates, education, unemployment, and urbanity. (BF)

  14. Mitochondrial Haplogroups Affect Severity But Not Prevalence of Diabetic Retinopathy

    PubMed Central

    Bregman, Jana A.; Herren, David J.; Estopinal, Christopher B.; Chocron, Isaac M.; Harlow, Paula A.; Warden, Cassandra; Brantley, Milam A.; Samuels, David C.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose We previously reported European mitochondrial haplogroup H to be a risk factor for and haplogroup UK to be protective against proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) among Caucasian patients with diabetic retinopathy (DR). The purpose of this study was to determine whether these haplogroups are also associated with the risk of having DR among Caucasian patients with diabetes. Methods Deidentified medical records for 637 Caucasian patients with diabetes (223 with DR) were obtained from BioVU, Vanderbilt University's electronic, deidentified DNA databank. An additional 197 Caucasian patients with diabetes (98 with DR) were enrolled from the Vanderbilt Eye Institute (VEI). We tested for an association between European mitochondrial haplogroups and DR status. Results The percentage of diabetes patients with DR did not differ across the haplogroups (P = 0.32). The percentage of patients with nonproliferative DR (NPDR; P = 0.0084) and with PDR (P = 0.027) significantly differed across the haplogroups. In logistic regressions adjusting for sex, age, diabetes type, duration of diabetes, and hemoglobin A1c, neither haplogroup H nor haplogroup UK had a significant effect on DR compared with diabetic controls. Haplogroup UK was a significant risk factor (OR = 1.72 [1.13–2.59], P = 0.010) for NPDR compared with diabetic controls in the unadjusted analysis, but not in the adjusted analysis (OR = 1.29 [0.79–2.10], P = 0.20). Conclusions Mitochondrial haplogroups H and UK were associated with severity, but not presence, of DR. These data argue that the effect of these haplogroups is related to ischemia and neovascularization, the defining features of PDR. PMID:28245487

  15. Prevalence of multimorbidity in the Brazilian adult population according to socioeconomic and demographic characteristics.

    PubMed

    Carvalho, Januse Nogueira de; Roncalli, Ângelo Giuseppe; Cancela, Marianna de Camargo; Souza, Dyego Leandro Bezerra de

    2017-01-01

    Knowledge on the occurrence of multimorbidity is important from the viewpoint of public policies, as this condition increases the consumption of medicines as well as the utilization and expenses of health services, affecting life quality of the population. The objective of this study was to estimate prevalence of self-reported multimorbidity in Brazilian adults (≥18 years old) according to socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. A descriptive study is presented herein, based on data from the National Health Survey, which was a household-based survey carried out in Brazil in 2013. Data on 60,202 adult participants over the age of 18 were included. Prevalences and its respective confidence intervals (95%) were estimated according to sex, age, education level, marital status, self-reported skin color, area of residence, occupation and federative units (states). Poisson regression models univariate and multivariate were used to evaluate the association between socioeconomic and demographic variables with multimorbidity. To observe the combinations of chronic conditions the most common groups in pairs, trios, quartets and quintets of chronic diseases were observed. The prevalence of multimorbidity was 23.6% and was higher among women, in individuals over 60 years of age, people with low educational levels, people living with partner, in urban areas and among unemployed persons. The states of the South and Southeast regions presented higher prevalence. The most common groups of chronic diseases were metabolic and musculoskeletal diseases. The results demonstrated high prevalence of multimorbidity in Brazil. The study also revealed that a considerable share of the economically active population presented two or more chronic diseases. Data of this research indicated that socioeconomic and demographic aspects must be considered during the planning of health services and development of prevention and treatment strategies for chronic diseases, and consequently

  16. Prevalence and characteristics of compulsive buying in college students.

    PubMed

    Harvanko, Arit; Lust, Katherine; Odlaug, Brian L; Schreiber, Liana R N; Derbyshire, Katherine; Christenson, Gary; Grant, Jon E

    2013-12-30

    Compulsive buying (CB) is a potentially devastating problem involving repetitive urges to shop and uncontrolled spending behaviors. Prevalence of CB in the general population has been estimated at 5.8%. This epidemiological study aims to better understand the prevalence and characteristics of college students who meet criteria for CB. During the spring of 2011, an online survey examining CB (using a clinically validated screening instrument, the Minnesota Impulse Disorders Interview), stress and mood states, psychiatric comorbidity, and psychosocial functioning was emailed to 2108 University students. Overall survey response rate was 35.1% (n=2108). Our data indicated that 3.6% (n=67) of college students surveyed met criteria for CB with significantly more women affected (4.4%, n=48) than men (2.5%, n=19). Relative to students not meeting criteria for CB, college students who met criteria for CB endorsed significantly greater psychiatric comorbidity, lower grade point averages, increased stress, and poorer physical health. Presence of CB is likely associated with a variety of problems in college students. These data may warrant increased screening of CB in college students to establish early interventions.

  17. High fructose corn syrup and diabetes prevalence: a global perspective.

    PubMed

    Goran, Michael I; Ulijaszek, Stanley J; Ventura, Emily E

    2013-01-01

    The overall aim of this study was to evaluate, from a global and ecological perspective, the relationships between availability of high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) and prevalence of type 2 diabetes. Using published resources, country-level estimates (n =43 countries) were obtained for: total sugar, HFCS and total calorie availability, obesity, two separate prevalence estimates for diabetes, prevalence estimate for impaired glucose tolerance and fasting plasma glucose. Pearson's correlations and partial correlations were conducted in order to explore associations between dietary availability and obesity and diabetes prevalence. Diabetes prevalence was 20% higher in countries with higher availability of HFCS compared to countries with low availability, and these differences were retained or strengthened after adjusting for country-level estimates of body mass index (BMI), population and gross domestic product (adjusted diabetes prevalence=8.0 vs. 6.7%, p=0.03; fasting plasma glucose=5.34 vs. 5.22 mmol/L, p=0.03) despite similarities in obesity and total sugar and calorie availability. These results suggest that countries with higher availability of HFCS have a higher prevalence of type 2 diabetes independent of obesity.

  18. Climate is associated with prevalence and severity of radiographic hand osteoarthritis.

    PubMed

    Kalichman, L; Korosteshevsky, M; Batsevich, V; Kobyliansky, E

    2011-08-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate whether geographic location and climatic factors are associated with prevalence and severity of radiographic hand osteoarthritis (OA) in several samples of the same ethnicity. The total sample included 2079 ethnic Russians (900 males and 1179 females), belonging to 7 samples from different geographic locations in the former USSR. Places of residence were characterized by latitude, longitude, altitude and climatic parameters (mean temperatures, humidity, and daylight duration of January and July). Radiographs of the left hand were obtained from each individual. Osteoarthritis (OA) was evaluated in 14 hand joints according to Kellgren and Lawrence's grading system. OA was characterized by the presence of at least one affected joint and its severity by the number of affected joints (NAJ). Statistical analysis included prevalence estimation, polynomial and logistic regressions, ANOVA and correlation analyses. Prevalence of hand OA and NAJ were significantly associated with latitude and altitude and with most climatic parameters (except the inter-seasonal temperature amplitude and the mean atmospheric pressure of January and July). The highest correlations of hand OA prevalence were found with altitude (r=0.29, p<0.001), annual precipitation (r=-0.26, p<0.001) and the mean temperatures of July (r=0.26, p<0.001). The highest correlations of NAJ were found with altitude (r=0.51, p<0.001), mean humidity in January (r=-0.44, p<0.001) and the mean day duration in January (r=0.0.37, p<0.001). The present study demonstrates that the differences in prevalence and severity of radiographic hand OA among Russian samples are most likely dependent on climatic conditions in the place of residence.

  19. Epidemiology of Ebstein anomaly: prevalence and patterns in Texas, 1999-2005.

    PubMed

    Lupo, Philip J; Langlois, Peter H; Mitchell, Laura E

    2011-05-01

    Ebstein anomaly is a rare but serious cardiac defect, however, little is known about the etiology of this condition. The goal of this study was to expand our limited understanding of the epidemiology of Ebstein anomaly. Data for cases with Ebstein anomaly, as well as all live births, were obtained from the Texas Birth Defects Registry (TBDR) and Center for Health Statistics for the period 1999-2005. Descriptive analyses and estimates of birth prevalence and crude prevalence ratios were used to characterize this defect in Texas during the study period. There were 188 definite cases of Ebstein anomaly identified in the TBDR. The overall prevalence was 0.72 per 10,000 live births. Variables associated with an increased prevalence of non-syndromic Ebstein anomaly included: maternal age >39 years (compared to those 20-24 years), maternal residence along the Texas-Mexico border (compared to non-border residence), and conception in fall or winter (compared to summer). In addition, infants with Ebstein anomaly were at a greater risk of preterm birth and being small for gestational age. These findings help to define subgroups of women at increased risk of having offspring affected by Ebstein anomaly. Furthermore, our findings add to the limited body of literature on this rare but serious malformation.

  20. Multimorbidity prevalence and pattern in Indonesian adults: an exploratory study using national survey data

    PubMed Central

    Hussain, Mohammad Akhtar; Huxley, Rachel R; Al Mamun, Abdullah

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To estimate the prevalence and pattern of multimorbidity in the Indonesian adult population. Design Cross-sectional study. Setting Community-based survey. The sampling frame was based on households in 13 of the 27 Indonesian provinces, representing about 83% of the Indonesian population. Participants 9438 Indonesian adults aged 40 years and above. Main outcome measures Prevalence and pattern of multimorbidity by age, gender and socioeconomic status. Results The mean number of morbidities in the sample was 1.27 (SE±0.01). The overall age and sex standardised prevalence of multimorbidity was 35.7% (34.8% to 36.7%), with women having significantly higher prevalence of multimorbidity than men (41.5% vs 29.5%; p<0.001). Of those with multimorbidity, 64.6% (62.8% to 66.3%) were aged less than 60 years. Prevalence of multimorbidity was positively associated with age (p for trend <0.001) and affluence (p for trend <0.001) and significantly greater in women at all ages compared with men. For each 5-year increment in age there was an approximate 20% greater risk of multimorbidity in both sexes (18% in women 95% CI 1.14 to 1.22 and 22% in men 95% CI 1.18 to 1.26). Increasing age, female gender, non-Javanese ethnicity, and high per-capital expenditure were all significantly associated with higher odds of multimorbidity. The combination of hypertension with cardiac diseases, hypercholesterolemia, arthritis, and uric acid/gout were the most commonly occurring disease pairs in both sexes. Conclusions More than one-third of the Indonesian adult population are living with multimorbidity with women and the more wealthy being particularly affected. Of especial concern was the high prevalence of multimorbidity among younger individuals. Hypertension was the most frequently occurring condition common to most individuals with multimorbidity. PMID:26656028

  1. Posttraumatic stress disorder post Iraq and Afghanistan: prevalence among military subgroups.

    PubMed

    Hines, Lindsey A; Sundin, Josefin; Rona, Roberto J; Wessely, Simon; Fear, Nicola T

    2014-09-01

    A large body of research has been produced in recent years investigating posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among military personnel following deployment to Iraq and Afghanistan, resulting in apparent differences in PTSD prevalence. We compare prevalence estimates for current PTSD between military subgroups, providing insight into how groups may be differentially affected by deployment. Systematic literature searches using the terms PTSD, stress disorder, and acute stress, combined with terms relating to military personnel, identified 49 relevant papers. Studies with a sample size of less than 100 and studies based on data for treatment seeking or injured populations were excluded. Studies were categorized according to theatre of deployment (Iraq or Afghanistan), combat and noncombat deployed samples, sex, enlistment type (regular or reserve and [or] National Guard), and service branch (for example, army, navy, and air force). Meta-analysis was used to assess PTSD prevalence across subgroups. There was large variability in PTSD prevalence between studies, but, regardless of heterogeneity, prevalence rates of PTSD were higher among studies of Iraq-deployed personnel (12.9%; 95% CI 11.3% to 14.4%), compared with personnel deployed to Afghanistan (7.1%; 95% CI 4.6% to 9.6%), combat deployed personnel, and personnel serving in the Canadian, US, or UK army or the navy or marines (12.4%; 95% CI 10.9% to 13.4%), compared with the other services (4.9%; 95% CI 1.4% to 8.4%). Contrary to findings from within-study comparisons, we did not find a difference in PTSD prevalence for regular active-duty and reserve or National Guard personnel. Categorizing studies according to deployment location and branch of service identified differences among subgroups that provide further support for factors underlying the development of PTSD.

  2. Prevalence of chronic disease and its controlled status according to income level.

    PubMed

    Kim, Seohyun; Lee, Byungmo; Park, Mingu; Oh, Sewon; Chin, Ho Jun; Koo, Hoseok

    2016-11-01

    The relationship between the prevalence of chronic diseases and income level has now become a main theme in poor national economic situations. We examined the prevalence of well-controlled chronic diseases according to income level. Data from the 2008 to 2014 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, conducted by using a stratified, multistage, probability-cluster sampling method, were used. Systolic blood pressure (SBP) inversely correlated with income level (P < 0.001). Diastolic blood pressure (DBP) showed no relationship. In the low-income group, the prevalence rates of hypertension and diabetes mellitus (DM) were highest but the proportion of patients with well-controlled chronic disease and the SBPs of the patients with hypertension showed a decreasing trend. In the high-income group, the proportions of patients with well-controlled DM and chronic kidney disease were higher than those in other groups. After adjusting for age, body mass index, SBP, DBP, HbA1c level, and serum creatinine level, income level significantly affected the prevalence of chronic diseases (for income, β=0.184; 95% confidence interval, 1.105-1.042). The daily sodium intake estimated by using spot urine samples was higher in the low- and low-to-mid-income groups. The prevalence of not using essential medical service for chronic disease was highest in the low- and low-to-mid-income groups for economic reasons. In the low- and low-to-mid-income groups, the prevalence of chronic disease was higher and the proportion of patients with well-controlled chronic disease was lower than in the other groups.

  3. Relationship between altitude and the prevalence of hypertension in Tibet: a systematic review

    PubMed Central

    Mingji, Cuomu; Onakpoya, Igho J; Perera, Rafael; Ward, Alison M; Heneghan, Carl J

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Hypertension is a leading cause of cardiovascular disease, which is the cause of one-third of global deaths and is a primary and rising contributor to the global disease burden. The objective of this systematic review was to determine the prevalence and awareness of hypertension among the inhabitants of Tibet and its association with altitude, using the data from published observational studies. Methods We conducted electronic searches in Medline, Embase, ISI Web of Science and Global Health. No gender or language restrictions were imposed. We assessed the methodological characteristics of included studies using the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) criteria. Two reviewers independently determined the eligibility of studies, assessed the methodology of included studies and extracted the data. We used meta-regression to estimate the degree of change in hypertension prevalence with increasing altitude. Results We identified 22 eligible articles of which eight cross-sectional studies with a total of 16 913 participants were included. The prevalence of hypertension ranged between 23% and 56%. A scatter plot of altitude against overall prevalence revealed a statistically significant correlation (r=0.68; p=0.04). Meta-regression analysis revealed a 2% increase in the prevalence of hypertension with every 100 m increase in altitude (p=0.06). The locations and socioeconomic status of subjects affected the awareness and subsequent treatment and control of hypertension. Conclusions The results from cross-sectional studies suggest that there is a significant correlation between altitude and the prevalence of hypertension among inhabitants of Tibet. The socioeconomic status of the inhabitants can influence awareness and management of hypertension. Very little research into hypertension has been conducted in other prefectures of Tibet where the altitude is much higher. Further research examining the impact of altitude

  4. Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Post Iraq and Afghanistan: Prevalence Among Military Subgroups

    PubMed Central

    Hines, Lindsey A; Sundin, Josefin; Rona, Roberto J; FFPH; Wessely, Simon; FMedSci; Fear, Nicola T

    2014-01-01

    A large body of research has been produced in recent years investigating posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among military personnel following deployment to Iraq and Afghanistan, resulting in apparent differences in PTSD prevalence. We compare prevalence estimates for current PTSD between military subgroups, providing insight into how groups may be differentially affected by deployment. Systematic literature searches using the terms PTSD, stress disorder, and acute stress, combined with terms relating to military personnel, identified 49 relevant papers. Studies with a sample size of less than 100 and studies based on data for treatment seeking or injured populations were excluded. Studies were categorized according to theatre of deployment (Iraq or Afghanistan), combat and noncombat deployed samples, sex, enlistment type (regular or reserve and [or] National Guard), and service branch (for example, army, navy, and air force). Meta-analysis was used to assess PTSD prevalence across subgroups. There was large variability in PTSD prevalence between studies, but, regardless of heterogeneity, prevalence rates of PTSD were higher among studies of Iraq-deployed personnel (12.9%; 95% CI 11.3% to 14.4%), compared with personnel deployed to Afghanistan (7.1%; 95% CI 4.6% to 9.6%), combat deployed personnel, and personnel serving in the Canadian, US, or UK army or the navy or marines (12.4%; 95% CI 10.9% to 13.4%), compared with the other services (4.9%; 95% CI 1.4% to 8.4%). Contrary to findings from within-study comparisons, we did not find a difference in PTSD prevalence for regular active-duty and reserve or National Guard personnel. Categorizing studies according to deployment location and branch of service identified differences among subgroups that provide further support for factors underlying the development of PTSD. PMID:25569079

  5. Estimating Airline Operating Costs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maddalon, D. V.

    1978-01-01

    The factors affecting commercial aircraft operating and delay costs were used to develop an airline operating cost model which includes a method for estimating the labor and material costs of individual airframe maintenance systems. The model permits estimates of aircraft related costs, i.e., aircraft service, landing fees, flight attendants, and control fees. A method for estimating the costs of certain types of airline delay is also described.

  6. [Dual diagnosis in psychiatric inpatients: prevalence and general characteristics].

    PubMed

    Rodríguez-Jiménez, Roberto; Aragüés, María; Jiménez-Arriero, Miguel Angel; Ponce, Guillermo; Muñoz, Antonio; Bagney, Alexandra; Hoenicka, Janet; Palomo, Tomás

    2008-06-01

    Comorbidity between a substance use disorder (SUD) and another psychiatric disorder is known as dual diagnosis. It is of great relevance due to its important clinical consequences and costs of care. There are practically no published studies on dual diagnosis prevalence in patients admitted to psychiatric hospitalization units in general hospitals (PHUGH) in our country. The objectives were to estimate the prevalence of dual diagnosis in psychiatric inpatients admitted consecutively to a Psychiatric Hospitalization Unit (Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, Spain) in one year, to compare clinical and sociodemographic variables between the dual diagnosis group (DD group) and the group with a psychiatric disorder but no SUD (PD group), and to study the types of substances used. This is a retrospective study, based on the review of the clinical charts of the 257 patients admitted to this PHUGH in one year. The results showed that, excluding nicotine dependence, 24.9% of our inpatients had a SUD as well as another psychiatric disorder. A statistically significant predominance of men was found in the DD group, as well as a younger age at the time of the study, at the beginning of their psychiatric attention and on their first psychiatric admission, and they had received diagnoses of schizophrenia or related psychoses more often than the PD group, who had mostly affective disorders. The substances most frequently used in the DD group were alcohol (78.1%), cannabis (62.5%), and cocaine (51.6%). Due to the high prevalence and repercussions of dual diagnosis, it would be advisable to have specialized therapeutic programs for its treatment.

  7. The prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in the Americas.

    PubMed

    López-Velázquez, Jorge A; Silva-Vidal, Karen V; Ponciano-Rodríguez, Guadalupe; Chávez-Tapia, Norberto C; Arrese, Marco; Uribe, Misael; Méndez-Sánchez, Nahum

    2014-01-01

    Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an alarming public health problem. The disease is one of the main causes of chronic liver disease worldwide and is directly linked to the increased prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the general population. The worldwide prevalence of NAFLD has been estimated at 20-30%, but the prevalence is unknown in the Americas because of a lack of epidemiological studies. However, given the trends in the prevalence of diabetes and obesity, the prevalence of NAFLD and its consequences are expected to increase in the near future. The aim of the present study is to present the current data on the prevalence of NAFLD in the Americas. We performed an electronic search of the main databases from January 2000 to September 2013 and identified 356 reports that were reviewed. We focused on the epidemiology and prevalence of known NAFLD risk factors including obesity, T2DM, and the metabolic syndrome (MS). The prevalence of the MS was highest in the United States, Mexico, Costa Rica, Puerto Rico, Chile, and Venezuela. In addition, Puerto Rico, Guyana, and Mexico have the highest prevalence of T2DM in the Americas, while USA has the most people with T2DM. In conclusion, the prevalence rates of NAFLD and obesity were highest in the United States, Belize, Barbados, and Mexico.

  8. Prevalence of Bipolar I and II Disorder in Canada

    PubMed Central

    McDonald, Keltie C; Bulloch, Andrew G M; Duffy, Anne; Bresee, Lauren; Williams, Jeanne V A; Lavorato, Dina H; Patten, Scott B

    2015-01-01

    Objective: Current epidemiologic knowledge about bipolar disorder (BD) in Canada is inadequate. To date, only 3 prevalence studies have been conducted: only 1 was based on a national sample, and none distinguished between BD I and II. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of BD I and II in Canada in 2012. Method: Data were obtained from the 2012 Canadian Community Health Survey: Mental Health and Well-being, a cross-sectional survey of a nationally representative sample of household residents ages 15 years and older (n = 25 113). The survey response rate was 68.9%. Interviews were based on the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Prevalence was estimated using generalized linear modelling. Prevalence of self-reported diagnosis of BD and use of lithium were also estimated. Results: The estimated lifetime prevalence of BD I and II (based on the CIDI) in Canada in 2012 was 0.87% (95% CI 0.67% to 1.07%) and 0.57% (95% CI 0.44% to 0.71%), respectively. Prevalence did not differ by sex. The estimated prevalence of self-reported BD was 0.87% (95% CI 0.65% to 1.07%). There was a lack of congruence between CIDI-defined and self-reported BD, and few people taking lithium were positive for BD on the CIDI, which raises some concerns about the validity of the CIDI’s assessment of BD. Conclusions: These prevalence estimates align with those reported in prior literature. However, caution should be exercised when interpreting general population studies that use CIDI-defined BD owing to the possibility of misclassification. PMID:25886691

  9. Prevalence and factors associated with road traffic crash among bus drivers in Hanoi, Vietnam.

    PubMed

    La, Quang Ngoc; Lee, Andy H; Meuleners, Lynn B; Van Duong, Dat

    2013-01-01

    Bus provides a main mode of public transport in Vietnam, but the risk of road traffic crash for bus drivers is unknown. This retrospective study estimated the crash prevalence among bus drivers in Hanoi, Vietnam, and identified driver characteristics affecting their crashes. Information