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Sample records for affect prevalence estimates

  1. Beyond air quality--factors that affect prevalence estimates of sick building syndrome.

    PubMed

    Mikatavage, M A; Rose, V E; Funkhouser, E; Oestenstad, R K; Dillon, K; Reynolds, K D

    1995-11-01

    If the prevalence of sick building syndrome (SBS) is estimated before intervention begins, then a reduction in the estimate may later be used to measure success of the intervention, and in particular, those efforts toward improving air quality. However, the measure of success will be distorted if factors other than air quality affect the SBS prevalence estimate. In this study the background prevalence of SBS was estimated and study factors identified that alone affected the estimate. Two symptom questionnaires were randomly administered to workers from 39 offices before routine physical examinations; one questionnaire described the SBS study, the other did not. SBS was defined as a symptom in the prior 24-hour or 7-day recall period that was more severe at work and not related to suspected confounders--allergy, cold, flu. Prevalence and prevalence ratios were estimated along with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Symptoms were reported by 45% of 1088 workers surveyed, but most reported them as more severe outside work or related them to confounders. SBS prevalence was 5%. It was 3.2 times higher (95% CI: 1.8, 5.7) among workers cognizant of the study relative to those blinded, 2.2 times higher (95% CI: 1.2, 4.1) for the 7-day relative to the 24-hour recall period, and 2.5 times higher (95% CI: 1.4, 5.0) for females. SBS prevalence did not differ by workday or age. Since study factors alone affected prevalence estimates, a standardized assessment method seems necessary for SBS.

  2. Micronutrient deficiencies are common in 6- to 8-year-old children of rural Nepal, with prevalence estimates modestly affected by inflammation.

    PubMed

    Schulze, Kerry J; Christian, Parul; Wu, Lee S F; Arguello, Margia; Cui, Hongjie; Nanayakkara-Bind, Ashika; Stewart, Christine P; Khatry, Subarna K; LeClerq, Steven; West, Keith P

    2014-06-01

    Subclinical micronutrient deficiencies remain a hidden aspect of malnutrition for which comprehensive data are lacking in school-aged children. We assessed the micronutrient status of Nepalese children, aged 6 to 8 y, born to mothers who participated in a community-based antenatal micronutrient supplementation trial from 1999 to 2001. Of 3305 participants, plasma indicators were assessed in a random sample of 1000 children. Results revealed deficiencies of vitamins A (retinol <0.70 μmol/L, 8.5%), D (25-hydroxyvitamin D <50 nmol/L, 17.2%), E (α-tocopherol <9.3 μmol/L, 17.9%), K (decarboxy prothombin >2 μg/L, 20%), B-12 (cobalamin <150 pmol/L, 18.1%), B-6 [pyridoxal-5'-phosphate (PLP) <20 nmol/L, 43.1%], and β-carotene (41.5% <0.09 μmol/L), with little folate deficiency (6.2% <13.6 nmol/L). Deficiencies of iron [ferritin <15 μg/L, 10.7%; transferrin receptor (TfR) >8.3 mg/L, 40.1%; TfR:ferritin >500 μg/μg, 14.3%], iodine (thyroglobulin >40 μg/L, 11.4%), and selenium (plasma selenium <0.89 μmol/L, 59.0%) were observed, whereas copper deficiency was nearly absent (plasma copper <11.8 μmol/L, 0.7%). Hemoglobin was not assessed. Among all children, 91.7% experienced at least 1 micronutrient deficiency, and 64.7% experienced multiple deficiencies. Inflammation (α-1 acid glycoprotein >1 g/L, C-reactive protein >5 mg/L, or both) was present in 31.6% of children, affecting the prevalence of deficiency as assessed by retinol, β-carotene, PLP, ferritin, TfR, selenium, copper, or having any or multiple deficiencies. For any nutrient, population deficiency prevalence estimates were altered by ≤5.4% by the presence of inflammation, suggesting that the majority of deficiencies exist regardless of inflammation. Multiple micronutrient deficiencies coexist in school-aged children in rural Nepal, meriting more comprehensive strategies for their assessment and prevention. PMID:24744314

  3. Data quality and practical challenges of thyroid volume assessment by ultrasound under field conditions - observer errors may affect prevalence estimates of goitre

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background The ultrasonographic estimation of thyroid size has been advocated as being more precise than palpation to diagnose goitre. However, ultrasound also requires technical proficiency. This study was conducted among Saharawi refugees, where goitre is highly prevalent. The objectives were to assess the overall data quality of ultrasound measurements of thyroid volume (Tvol), including the intra- and inter-observer agreement, under field conditions, and to describe some of the practical challenges encountered. Methods In 2007 a cross-sectional study of 419 children (6-14 years old) and 405 women (15-45 years old) was performed on a population of Saharawi refugees with prevalent goitre, who reside in the Algerian desert. Tvol was measured by two trained fieldworkers using portable ultrasound equipment (examiner 1 measured 406 individuals, and examiner 2, 418 individuals). Intra- and inter-observer agreement was estimated in 12 children selected from the study population but not part of the main study. In the main study, an observer error was found in one examiner whose ultrasound images were corrected by linear regression after printing and remeasuring a sample of 272 images. Results The intra-observer agreement in Tvol was higher in examiner 1, with an intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of 0.97 (95% CI: 0.91, 0.99) compared to 0.86 (95% CI: 0.60, 0.96) in examiner 2. The ICC for inter-observer agreement in Tvol was 0.38 (95% CI: -0.20, 0.77). Linear regression coefficients indicated a significant scaling bias in the original measurements of the AP and ML diameter and a systematic underestimation of Tvol (a product of AP, ML, CC and a constant). The agreement between re-measured and original Tvol measured by ICC (95% CI) was 0.76 (0.71, 0.81). The agreement between re-measured and corrected Tvol measured by ICC (95% CI) was 0.97 (0.96, 0.97). Conclusions An important challenge when using ultrasound to assess thyroid volume under field conditions is to

  4. Sample size estimation in prevalence studies.

    PubMed

    Arya, Ravindra; Antonisamy, Belavendra; Kumar, Sushil

    2012-11-01

    Estimation of appropriate sample size for prevalence surveys presents many challenges, particularly when the condition is very rare or has a tendency for geographical clustering. Sample size estimate for prevalence studies is a function of expected prevalence and precision for a given level of confidence expressed by the z statistic. Choice of the appropriate values for these variables is sometimes not straight-forward. Certain other situations do not fulfil the assumptions made in the conventional equation and present a special challenge. These situations include, but are not limited to, smaller population size in relation to sample size, sampling technique or missing data. This paper discusses practical issues in sample size estimation for prevalence studies with an objective to help clinicians and healthcare researchers make more informed decisions whether reviewing or conducting such a study. PMID:22562262

  5. The oculoauriculovertebral spectrum: Refining the estimate of birth prevalence.

    PubMed

    Gabbett, Michael T

    2012-06-01

    The oculoauriculovertebral spectrum (OAVS) is a well-described pattern of congenital malformations primarily characterized by hemifacial microsomia and/or auricular dysplasia. However, the birth prevalence of OAVS is poorly characterized. Figures ranging from 1 in 150,000 through to 1 in 5,600 can be found in the literature - the latter figure being the most frequently quoted. This study aims to evaluate the reasons behind such discrepant figures and to refine the estimated birth prevalence of OAVS. Published reports on the incidence and prevalence of OAVS were systematically sought after. This evidence was critically reviewed. Data from appropriate studies was amalgamated to refine the estimate of the birth prevalence for OAVS. Two main reasons were identified why birth prevalence figures for OAVS are so highly discrepant: differing methods of case ascertainment and the lack of a formal definition for OAVS. This study refines the estimate of birth prevalence for OAVS to between 1 in 40,000 and 1 in 30,000. This number needs to be confirmed in a large well-designed prospective study using a formally agreed-upon definition for OAVS. PMID:27625806

  6. The oculoauriculovertebral spectrum: Refining the estimate of birth prevalence

    PubMed Central

    Gabbett, Michael T.

    2012-01-01

    The oculoauriculovertebral spectrum (OAVS) is a well-described pattern of congenital malformations primarily characterized by hemifacial microsomia and/or auricular dysplasia. However, the birth prevalence of OAVS is poorly characterized. Figures ranging from 1 in 150,000 through to 1 in 5,600 can be found in the literature – the latter figure being the most frequently quoted. This study aims to evaluate the reasons behind such discrepant figures and to refine the estimated birth prevalence of OAVS. Published reports on the incidence and prevalence of OAVS were systematically sought after. This evidence was critically reviewed. Data from appropriate studies was amalgamated to refine the estimate of the birth prevalence for OAVS. Two main reasons were identified why birth prevalence figures for OAVS are so highly discrepant: differing methods of case ascertainment and the lack of a formal definition for OAVS. This study refines the estimate of birth prevalence for OAVS to between 1 in 40,000 and 1 in 30,000. This number needs to be confirmed in a large well-designed prospective study using a formally agreed-upon definition for OAVS.

  7. Estimating HIV Prevalence in Zimbabwe Using Population-Based Survey Data

    PubMed Central

    Chinomona, Amos; Mwambi, Henry Godwell

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of HIV prevalence computed using data obtained from sampling a subgroup of the national population may lack the representativeness of all the relevant domains of the population. These estimates are often computed on the assumption that HIV prevalence is uniform across all domains of the population. Use of appropriate statistical methods together with population-based survey data can enhance better estimation of national and subgroup level HIV prevalence and can provide improved explanations of the variation in HIV prevalence across different domains of the population. In this study we computed design-consistent estimates of HIV prevalence, and their respective 95% confidence intervals at both the national and subgroup levels. In addition, we provided a multivariable survey logistic regression model from a generalized linear modelling perspective for explaining the variation in HIV prevalence using demographic, socio-economic, socio-cultural and behavioural factors. Essentially, this study borrows from the proximate determinants conceptual framework which provides guiding principles upon which socio-economic and socio-cultural variables affect HIV prevalence through biological behavioural factors. We utilize the 2010–11 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (2010–11 ZDHS) data (which are population based) to estimate HIV prevalence in different categories of the population and for constructing the logistic regression model. It was established that HIV prevalence varies greatly with age, gender, marital status, place of residence, literacy level, belief on whether condom use can reduce the risk of contracting HIV and level of recent sexual activity whereas there was no marked variation in HIV prevalence with social status (measured using a wealth index), method of contraceptive and an individual’s level of education. PMID:26624280

  8. Estimating HIV Prevalence in Zimbabwe Using Population-Based Survey Data.

    PubMed

    Chinomona, Amos; Mwambi, Henry Godwell

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of HIV prevalence computed using data obtained from sampling a subgroup of the national population may lack the representativeness of all the relevant domains of the population. These estimates are often computed on the assumption that HIV prevalence is uniform across all domains of the population. Use of appropriate statistical methods together with population-based survey data can enhance better estimation of national and subgroup level HIV prevalence and can provide improved explanations of the variation in HIV prevalence across different domains of the population. In this study we computed design-consistent estimates of HIV prevalence, and their respective 95% confidence intervals at both the national and subgroup levels. In addition, we provided a multivariable survey logistic regression model from a generalized linear modelling perspective for explaining the variation in HIV prevalence using demographic, socio-economic, socio-cultural and behavioural factors. Essentially, this study borrows from the proximate determinants conceptual framework which provides guiding principles upon which socio-economic and socio-cultural variables affect HIV prevalence through biological behavioural factors. We utilize the 2010-11 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (2010-11 ZDHS) data (which are population based) to estimate HIV prevalence in different categories of the population and for constructing the logistic regression model. It was established that HIV prevalence varies greatly with age, gender, marital status, place of residence, literacy level, belief on whether condom use can reduce the risk of contracting HIV and level of recent sexual activity whereas there was no marked variation in HIV prevalence with social status (measured using a wealth index), method of contraceptive and an individual's level of education. PMID:26624280

  9. An estimate of asthma prevalence in Africa: a systematic analysis

    PubMed Central

    Adeloye, Davies; Chan, Kit Yee; Rudan, Igor; Campbell, Harry

    2013-01-01

    Aim To estimate and compare asthma prevalence in Africa in 1990, 2000, and 2010 in order to provide information that will help inform the planning of the public health response to the disease. Methods We conducted a systematic search of Medline, EMBASE, and Global Health for studies on asthma published between 1990 and 2012. We included cross-sectional population based studies providing numerical estimates on the prevalence of asthma. We calculated weighted mean prevalence and applied an epidemiological model linking age with the prevalence of asthma. The UN population figures for Africa for 1990, 2000, and 2010 were used to estimate the cases of asthma, each for the respective year. Results Our search returned 790 studies. We retained 45 studies that met our selection criteria. In Africa in 1990, we estimated 34.1 million asthma cases (12.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 7.2-16.9) among children <15 years, 64.9 million (11.8%; 95% CI 7.9-15.8) among people aged <45 years, and 74.4 million (11.7%; 95% CI 8.2-15.3) in the total population. In 2000, we estimated 41.3 million cases (12.9%; 95% CI 8.7-17.0) among children <15 years, 82.4 million (12.5%; 95% CI 5.9-19.1) among people aged <45 years, and 94.8 million (12.0%; 95% CI 5.0-18.8) in the total population. This increased to 49.7 million (13.9%; 95% CI 9.6-18.3) among children <15 years, 102.9 million (13.8%; 95% CI 6.2-21.4) among people aged <45 years, and 119.3 million (12.8%; 95% CI 8.2-17.1) in the total population in 2010. There were no significant differences between asthma prevalence in studies which ascertained cases by written and video questionnaires. Crude prevalences of asthma were, however, consistently higher among urban than rural dwellers. Conclusion Our findings suggest an increasing prevalence of asthma in Africa over the past two decades. Due to the paucity of data, we believe that the true prevalence of asthma may still be under-estimated. There is a need for national governments in Africa

  10. Causal Estimation using Semiparametric Transformation Models under Prevalent Sampling

    PubMed Central

    Cheng, Yu-Jen; Wang, Mei-Cheng

    2015-01-01

    Summary This paper develops methods and inference for causal estimation in semiparametric transformation models for prevalent survival data. Through estimation of the transformation models and covariate distribution, we propose analytical procedures to estimate the causal survival function. As the data are observational, the unobserved potential outcome (survival time) may be associated with the treatment assignment, and therefore there may exist a systematic imbalance between the data observed from each treatment arm. Further, due to prevalent sampling, subjects are observed only if they have not experienced the failure event when data collection began, causing the prevalent sampling bias. We propose a unified approach which simultaneously corrects the bias from the prevalent sampling and balances the systematic differences from the observational data. We illustrate in the simulation study that standard analysis without proper adjustment would result in biased causal inference. Large sample properties of the proposed estimation procedures are established by techniques of empirical processes and examined by simulation studies. The proposed methods are applied to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) and Medicare linked data for women diagnosed with breast cancer. PMID:25715045

  11. Malingering in the correctional system: does incentive affect prevalence?

    PubMed

    McDermott, Barbara E; Dualan, Isah V; Scott, Charles L

    2013-01-01

    Incentives to malinger vary greatly dependent on the context, as does the prevalence. Malingering in the medico-legal context of the criminal courts is generally for one of two purposes: to present as incompetent to stand trial or to successfully plead not guilty by reason of insanity. Estimates of the prevalence of malingering in these contexts vary between 8 and 21%. The prevalence of malingering increases dramatically in a general offender sample, where the external incentive is likely to be substantially different. Malingering in this context can be as high as 56% and generally occurs to obtain a more desirable housing situation or desired medications. Our study examined data from two distinct samples to evaluate incentives to malinger: patients found incompetent to stand trial (IST) and sent to a state hospital for restoration and jail inmates seeking psychiatric services (JPS). Our results indicate that the rate of malingering in the IST sample was consistent with rates published in comparable samples (17.5%) and the rate for the JPS sample was substantially higher (64.5%). Only in the IST sample was rate of malingering associated with offense severity: patients found IST for murder and robbery evidenced malingering rates more than double the sample as a whole. Offense severity bore no relationship to malingering in the JPS sample.

  12. Estimating Neospora caninum prevalence in wildlife populations using Bayesian inference.

    PubMed

    Moreno-Torres, Karla; Wolfe, Barbara; Saville, William; Garabed, Rebecca

    2016-04-01

    Prevalence of disease in wildlife populations, which is necessary for developing disease models and conducting epidemiologic analyses, is often understudied. Laboratory tests used to screen for diseases in wildlife populations often are validated only for domestic animals. Consequently, the use of these tests for wildlife populations may lead to inaccurate estimates of disease prevalence. We demonstrate the use of Bayesian latent class analysis (LCA) in determining the specificity and sensitivity of a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA; VMRD (®), Inc.) serologic test used to identify exposure to Neospora caninum (hereafter N. caninum) in three wildlife populations in southeastern Ohio, USA. True prevalence of N. caninum exposure in these populations was estimated to range from 0.1% to 3.1% in American bison (Bison bison), 51.0% to 53.8% in Père David's deer (Elaphurus davidianus), and 40.0% to 45.9% in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). The accuracy of the cELISA in American bison and Père David's deer was estimated to be close to the 96% sensitivity and 99% specificity reported by the manufacturer. Sensitivity in white-tailed deer, however, ranged from 78.9% to 99.9%. Apparent prevalence of N. caninum from the test results is not equal to the true prevalence in white-tailed deer and Père David's deer populations. Even when these species inhabit the same community, the true prevalence in the two deer populations differed from the true prevalence in the American bison population. Variances in prevalence for some species suggest differences in the epidemiology of N. caninum for these colocated populations. Bayesian LCA methods could be used as in this example to overcome some of the constraints on validating tests in wildlife species. The ability to accurately evaluate disease status and prevalence in a population improves our understanding of the epidemiology of multihost pathogen systems at the community level. PMID:27099713

  13. Predicting Individual Affect of Health Interventions to Reduce HPV Prevalence

    SciTech Connect

    Corley, Courtney D.; Mihalcea, Rada; Mikler, Armin R.; Sanfilippo, Antonio P.

    2011-04-01

    Recently, human papilloma virus has been implicated to cause several throat and oral cancers and hpv is established to cause most cervical cancers. A human papilloma virus vaccine has been proven successful to reduce infection incidence in FDA clinical trials and it is currently available in the United States. Current intervention policy targets adolescent females for vaccination; however, the expansion of suggested guidelines may extend to other age groups and males as well. This research takes a first step towards automatically predicting personal beliefs, regarding health intervention, on the spread of disease. Using linguistic or statistical approaches, sentiment analysis determines a texts affective content. Self-reported HPV vaccination beliefs published in web and social media are analyzed for affect polarity and leveraged as knowledge inputs to epidemic models. With this in mind, we have developed a discrete-time model to facilitate predicting impact on the reduction of HPV prevalence due to arbitrary age and gender targeted vaccination schemes.

  14. Predicting individual affect of health interventions to reduce HPV prevalence.

    PubMed

    Corley, Courtney D; Mihalcea, Rada; Mikler, Armin R; Sanfilippo, Antonio P

    2011-01-01

    Recently, human papilloma virus (HPV) has been implicated to cause several throat and oral cancers and HPV is established to cause most cervical cancers. A human papilloma virus vaccine has been proven successful to reduce infection incidence in FDA clinical trials, and it is currently available in the USA. Current intervention policy targets adolescent females for vaccination; however, the expansion of suggested guidelines may extend to other age groups and males as well. This research takes a first step toward automatically predicting personal beliefs, regarding health intervention, on the spread of disease. Using linguistic or statistical approaches, sentiment analysis determines a text's affective content. Self-reported HPV vaccination beliefs published in web and social media are analyzed for affect polarity and leveraged as knowledge inputs to epidemic models. With this in mind, we have developed a discrete-time model to facilitate predicting impact on the reduction of HPV prevalence due to arbitrary age- and gender-targeted vaccination schemes.

  15. Prevalence and correlates of binge eating in seasonal affective disorder.

    PubMed

    Donofry, Shannon D; Roecklein, Kathryn A; Rohan, Kelly J; Wildes, Jennifer E; Kamarck, Marissa L

    2014-06-30

    Eating pathology in Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) may be more severe than hyperphagia during winter. Although research has documented elevated rates of subclinical binge eating in women with SAD, the prevalence and correlates of binge eating disorder (BED) in SAD remain largely uncharacterized. We examined the prevalence and correlates of binge eating, weekly binge eating with distress, and BED as defined by the DSM-IV-TR in SAD. We also tested whether binge eating exhibits a seasonal pattern among individuals with BED. Two samples were combined to form a sample of individuals with SAD (N=112). A third sample included non-depressed adults with clinical (n=12) and subclinical (n=11) BED. All participants completed the Questionnaire of Eating and Weight Patterns-Revised (QEWP-R) and modified Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire (M-SPAQ). In the SAD sample, 26.5% reported binge eating, 11.6% met criteria for weekly binge eating with distress, and 8.9% met criteria for BED. Atypical symptom severity predicted binge eating and BED. In the BED sample, 30% endorsed seasonal worsening of mood, and 26% reported a winter pattern of binge eating. The spectrum of eating pathology in SAD includes symptoms of BED, which are associated with atypical depression symptoms, but typical depression symptoms.

  16. Prevalence estimates of combat-related post-traumatic stress disorder: critical review.

    PubMed

    Richardson, Lisa K; Frueh, B Christopher; Acierno, Ronald

    2010-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to provide a critical review of prevalence estimates of combat-related post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among military personnel and veterans, and of the relevant factors that may account for the variability of estimates within and across cohorts, including methodological and conceptual factors accounting for differences in prevalence rates across nations, conflicts/wars, and studies. MEDLINE and PsycINFO databases were examined for literature on combat-related PTSD. The following terms were used independently and in combinations in this search: PTSD, combat, veterans, military, epidemiology, prevalence. The point prevalence of combat-related PTSD in US military veterans since the Vietnam War ranged from approximately 2% to 17%. Studies of recent conflicts suggest that combat-related PTSD afflicts between 4% and 17% of US Iraq War veterans, but only 3-6% of returning UK Iraq War veterans. Thus, the prevalence range is narrower and tends to have a lower ceiling among combat veterans of non-US Western nations. Variability in prevalence is likely due to differences in sampling strategies; measurement strategies; inclusion and measurement of the DSM-IV clinically significant impairment criterion; timing and latency of assessment and potential for recall bias; and combat experiences. Prevalence rates are also likely affected by issues related to PTSD course, chronicity, and comorbidity; symptom overlap with other psychiatric disorders; and sociopolitical and cultural factors that may vary over time and by nation. The disorder represents a significant and costly illness to veterans, their families, and society as a whole. Further carefully conceptualized research, however, is needed to advance our understanding of disorder prevalence, as well as associated information on course, phenomenology, protective factors, treatment, and economic costs.

  17. How could preventive therapy affect the prevalence of drug resistance? Causes and consequences

    PubMed Central

    Kunkel, Amber; Colijn, Caroline; Lipsitch, Marc; Cohen, Ted

    2015-01-01

    Various forms of preventive and prophylactic antimicrobial therapies have been proposed to combat HIV (e.g. pre-exposure prophylaxis), tuberculosis (e.g. isoniazid preventive therapy) and malaria (e.g. intermittent preventive treatment). However, the potential population-level effects of preventative therapy (PT) on the prevalence of drug resistance are not well understood. PT can directly affect the rate at which resistance is acquired among those receiving PT. It can also indirectly affect resistance by altering the rate at which resistance is acquired through treatment for active disease and by modifying the level of competition between transmission of drug-resistant and drug-sensitive pathogens. We propose a general mathematical model to explore the ways in which PT can affect the long-term prevalence of drug resistance. Depending on the relative contributions of these three mechanisms, we find that increasing the level of coverage of PT may result in increases, decreases or non-monotonic changes in the overall prevalence of drug resistance. These results demonstrate the complexity of the relationship between PT and drug resistance in the population. Care should be taken when predicting population-level changes in drug resistance from small pilot studies of PT or estimates based solely on its direct effects. PMID:25918446

  18. How could preventive therapy affect the prevalence of drug resistance? Causes and consequences.

    PubMed

    Kunkel, Amber; Colijn, Caroline; Lipsitch, Marc; Cohen, Ted

    2015-06-01

    Various forms of preventive and prophylactic antimicrobial therapies have been proposed to combat HIV (e.g. pre-exposure prophylaxis), tuberculosis (e.g. isoniazid preventive therapy) and malaria (e.g. intermittent preventive treatment). However, the potential population-level effects of preventative therapy (PT) on the prevalence of drug resistance are not well understood. PT can directly affect the rate at which resistance is acquired among those receiving PT. It can also indirectly affect resistance by altering the rate at which resistance is acquired through treatment for active disease and by modifying the level of competition between transmission of drug-resistant and drug-sensitive pathogens. We propose a general mathematical model to explore the ways in which PT can affect the long-term prevalence of drug resistance. Depending on the relative contributions of these three mechanisms, we find that increasing the level of coverage of PT may result in increases, decreases or non-monotonic changes in the overall prevalence of drug resistance. These results demonstrate the complexity of the relationship between PT and drug resistance in the population. Care should be taken when predicting population-level changes in drug resistance from small pilot studies of PT or estimates based solely on its direct effects.

  19. Estimating the Contribution of Acute Gastroenteritis to the Overall Prevalence of Irritable Bowel Syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Shah, Eric D; Riddle, Mark S; Chang, Christopher

    2012-01-01

    Background/Aims Recent studies reveal that acute gastroenteritis can precipitate irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) symptoms leading to the concept of post-infectious IBS. However, the overall contribution of gastroenteritis to the total IBS prevalence is unknown. In this exercise we try to estimate the contribution of gastroenteritis in IBS using the published literature and a longitudinal approach. Methods Existing literature was reviewed to determine the incidence of IBS after gastroenteritis, the rate of remission over time, data on rates of gastroenteritis in a given population and any patterns of resistance to these effects in human populations. This produced 3 models. The first assumed all humans were susceptible to gastroenteritis and its ability to produce IBS. The second assumed (using meta-analysis data) that 90% of humans in a given outbreak would be resistant to this effect. The third model used a high gastroenteritis exposure rate as might be seen in military deployment. Results In model 1, the prevalence was unrealistically high with an eventual steady state of 43.6% of the population affected by IBS. In a very conservative approach (model 2), steady state was achieved after 10 years to an overall prevalence of 8.9%. Interestingly, based on a high 1 year exposure rate such as military deployment, the maximum prevalence (steady state) was reached before 1 year suggesting high risk. Conclusions Although hypothetical in approach, based on conservative estimates in existing literature the contribution of gastroenteritis to the overall prevalence of IBS is substantial. PMID:22523730

  20. Declining estimated prevalence of alcohol drinking and smoking among young adults nationally: artifacts of sample undercoverage?

    PubMed

    Delnevo, Cristine D; Gundersen, Daniel A; Hagman, Brett T

    2008-01-01

    A growing concern in public health surveillance surveys that rely on random digit dialing for sampling is the exclusion of adults in cell-phone-only households. The purpose of this study was to examine whether recent increases in wireless substitution have affected estimates of tobacco and alcohol use in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) in a subpopulation with notable cell-phone usage (i.e., young adults). BRFSS data from 2001-2005 were examined. Analyses were limited to participants aged 18-24 years, and the sample contained approximately 18,500 persons in each year. Prevalence estimates were generated with SUDAAN software for three health behaviors: cigarette smoking, binge drinking, and heavy alcohol consumption. In addition, the authors examined sample completeness for young adults relative to US Census estimates. Overall, prevalences of all three health behaviors among young adults were fairly stable between 2001 and 2003 but significantly decreased between 2003 and 2005. These trends are not replicated in national surveys that use area probability samples. The authors found a declining trend in the sample completeness ratio for young adults; it declined from 0.32 in 2001 to 0.15 in 2005. Given the high prevalence of wireless substitution among young adults and the declining sample completeness ratio, the authors suspect that the observed decreases in prevalence are artifacts of undercoverage.

  1. Declining estimated prevalence of alcohol drinking and smoking among young adults nationally: artifacts of sample undercoverage?

    PubMed

    Delnevo, Cristine D; Gundersen, Daniel A; Hagman, Brett T

    2008-01-01

    A growing concern in public health surveillance surveys that rely on random digit dialing for sampling is the exclusion of adults in cell-phone-only households. The purpose of this study was to examine whether recent increases in wireless substitution have affected estimates of tobacco and alcohol use in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) in a subpopulation with notable cell-phone usage (i.e., young adults). BRFSS data from 2001-2005 were examined. Analyses were limited to participants aged 18-24 years, and the sample contained approximately 18,500 persons in each year. Prevalence estimates were generated with SUDAAN software for three health behaviors: cigarette smoking, binge drinking, and heavy alcohol consumption. In addition, the authors examined sample completeness for young adults relative to US Census estimates. Overall, prevalences of all three health behaviors among young adults were fairly stable between 2001 and 2003 but significantly decreased between 2003 and 2005. These trends are not replicated in national surveys that use area probability samples. The authors found a declining trend in the sample completeness ratio for young adults; it declined from 0.32 in 2001 to 0.15 in 2005. Given the high prevalence of wireless substitution among young adults and the declining sample completeness ratio, the authors suspect that the observed decreases in prevalence are artifacts of undercoverage. PMID:17977896

  2. An estimate of the prevalence of developmental phonagnosia.

    PubMed

    Shilowich, Bryan E; Biederman, Irving

    2016-08-01

    A web-based survey estimated the distribution of voice recognition abilities with a focus on determining the prevalence of developmental phonagnosia, the inability to identify a familiar person based on their voice. Participants matched clips of 50 celebrity voices to 1-4 named headshots of celebrities whose voices they had previously rated for familiarity. Given a strong correlation between rated familiarity and recognition performance, a residual was calculated based on the average familiarity rating on each trial, which thus constituted each respondent's voice recognition ability that could not be accounted for by familiarity. 3.2% of the respondents (23 of 730 participants) had residual recognition scores 2.28 SDs below the mean (whereas 8 or 1.1% would have been expected from a normal distribution). They also judged whether they could imagine the voice of five familiar celebrities. Individuals who had difficulty in imagining voices were also generally below average in their accuracy of recognition. PMID:27376464

  3. Prevalence of HCV and HIV infections in 2005-Earthquake-affected areas of Pakistan

    PubMed Central

    Khan, Saeed; Rai, Mohammad A; Khan, Adnan; Farooqui, Amber; Kazmi, Shahana U; Ali, Syed H

    2008-01-01

    Background On October 8, 2005, an earthquake of magnitude 7.6 hit the Northern parts of Pakistan. In the post-earthquake scenario, overcrowding, improper sewage disposal, contamination of food and drinking water, hasty surgical procedures, and unscreened blood transfusions to earthquake victims most likely promotes the spread of infections already prevalent in the area. Objective The objective of the study reported here was to determine the prevalence of Human Immunodeficiency and Hepatitis C viruses (respectively, HIV and HCV) in the earthquake-affected communities of Pakistan. The samples were analyzed 2 months and then again 11 months after the earthquake to estimate the burden of HIV and HCV in these areas, and to determine any rise in the prevalence of these viral infections as a result of the earthquake. Methods Blood samples were initially collected during December, 2005 to March 2006, from 245 inhabitants of the earthquake-affected areas. These samples were screened for HCV and HIV, using immunochromatography and Enzyme-Linked Immuno-Sorbent Assay (ELISA). Results Out of 245 samples tested, 8 (3.26%) were found positive for HCV, and 0 (0.0%) for HIV, indicating the existence of HCV infection in the earthquake-stricken areas. The same methods were used to analyze the samples collected in the second round of screening in the same area, in September, 2006 – 11 months after the earthquake. This time 290 blood samples were collected, out of which 16 (5.51%) samples were positive for HCV, and 0 for HIV. Conclusion A slightly higher prevalence of HCV was recorded 11 months after the earthquake; this increase, however, was not statistically significant. None of the study participants was found HIV-infected. PMID:18954443

  4. An estimate of the prevalence of epilepsy in Sub–Saharan Africa: A systematic analysis

    PubMed Central

    Paul, Abigail; Adeloye, Davies; George-Carey, Rhiannon; Kolčić, Ivana; Grant, Liz; Chan, Kit Yee

    2012-01-01

    Background Epilepsy is a leading serious neurological condition worldwide and has particularly significant physical, economic and social consequences in Sub–Saharan Africa. This paper aims to contribute to the understanding of epilepsy prevalence in this region and how this varies by age and sex so as to inform understanding of the disease characteristics as well as the development of infrastructure, services and policies. Methods A parallel systematic analysis of Medline, Embase and Global Health returned 32 studies that satisfied pre–defined quality criteria. Relevant data was extracted, tabulated and analyzed. We modelled the available information and used the UN population figures for Africa to determine the age–specific and overall burden of epilepsy. Results Active epilepsy was estimated to affect 4.4 million people in Sub–Saharan Africa, whilst lifetime epilepsy was estimated to affect 5.4 million. The prevalence of active epilepsy peaks in the 20–29 age group at 11.5/1000 and again in the 40–49 age group at 8.2/1000. The lowest prevalence value of 3.1/1000 is seen in the 60+ age group. This binomial pattern is also seen in both men and women, with the second peak more pronounced in women at 14.6/1000. Conclusion The high prevalence of epilepsy, especially in young adults, has important consequences for both the workforce and community structures. An estimation of disease burden would be a beneficial outcome of further research, as would research into appropriate methods of improving health care for and tackling discrimination against people with epilepsy. PMID:23289080

  5. Estimated prevalence of antenatal depression in the US population.

    PubMed

    Ashley, June M; Harper, Bridgette D; Arms-Chavez, Clarissa J; LoBello, Steven G

    2016-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the prevalence of minor and major depression among pregnant women in the USA. Also, we compare prevalence of depression among pregnant and non-pregnant women while controlling for relevant covariates. A population-representative sample of pregnant women (n = 3010) surveyed for the 2006 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System was compared to a sample of women who were not pregnant (n = 68,620). Binary logistic regression was used to determine prevalence ratios of depression for pregnant and non-pregnant women while controlling for the effects of age, race, annual income, employment status, educational level, marital status, general health, and availability of emotional support. Depression was measured by the Patient Health Questionnaire-8 (PHQ-8). The prevalence of major depression was no greater among pregnant women (6.1%) compared to non-pregnant women (7%; adjusted prevalence ratio (PR) = 1.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) .8 and 1.5). The prevalence of minor depression was greater among pregnant women (16.6%) compared to non-pregnant women (11.4%; adjusted PR = 1.5, 95% CI 1.2 and 1.9). Prevalence ratios are adjusted for the effects of covariates noted above. Prevalence of major depression is not associated with pregnancy, but minor depression is more likely among women who are pregnant. PMID:26687691

  6. Trends Affecting the Prevalence of Visual Impairment and Demand for Services.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kirchner, Corinne

    1999-01-01

    Discusses the prevalence of people with visual impairment and trends affecting prevalence, including increased overall populations and a growth in the older population, greater ability to preserve lives of high-risk populations, improved fitness, medical advances in prevention, expanding role of computers among other increasing visual demands, and…

  7. Impact of Postcensal Versus Intercensal Population Estimates on Prevalence of Selected Developmental Disabilities--Metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia, 1991-1996

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lazarus, Carrie; Autry, Andy; Baio, Jon; Avchen, Rachel Nonkin; Braun, Kim Van Nardeen

    2007-01-01

    Prevalence estimates often use U.S. Census Bureau estimates of the population as denominator data. Postcensal estimates are population estimates produced following a decennial census. Intercensal estimates are surrounded by 2 census years and supersede postcensal estimates. In this report we describe prevalence estimates in Atlanta for mental…

  8. Estimating the Prevalence of Childhood Obesity in Alaska Using Partial, Nonrandom Measurement Data

    PubMed Central

    Boles, Myde; Fink, Karol; Topol, Rebecca; Fenaughty, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    Although monitoring childhood obesity prevalence is critical for state public health programs to assess trends and the effectiveness of interventions, few states have comprehensive body mass index measurement systems in place. In some states, however, assorted school districts collect measurements on student height and weight as part of annual health screenings. To estimate childhood obesity prevalence in Alaska, we created a logistic regression model using such annual measurements along with public data on demographics and socioeconomic status. Our mixed-effects model-generated prevalence estimates validated well against weighted estimates, with 95% confidence intervals overlapping between methodologies among 7 of 8 participating school districts. Our methodology accounts for variation in school-level and student-level demographic factors across the state, and the approach we describe can be applied by other states that have existing nonrandom student measurement data to estimate childhood obesity prevalence. PMID:27010843

  9. Spatially interpolated disease prevalence estimation using collateral indicators of morbidity and ecological risk.

    PubMed

    Congdon, Peter

    2013-10-01

    This paper considers estimation of disease prevalence for small areas (neighbourhoods) when the available observations on prevalence are for an alternative partition of a region, such as service areas. Interpolation to neighbourhoods uses a kernel method extended to take account of two types of collateral information. The first is morbidity and service use data, such as hospital admissions, observed for neighbourhoods. Variations in morbidity and service use are expected to reflect prevalence. The second type of collateral information is ecological risk factors (e.g., pollution indices) that are expected to explain variability in prevalence in service areas, but are typically observed only for neighbourhoods. An application involves estimating neighbourhood asthma prevalence in a London health region involving 562 neighbourhoods and 189 service (primary care) areas. PMID:24129116

  10. A small area analysis estimating the prevalence of addiction to opioids in Barcelona, 1993

    PubMed Central

    Brugal, M. T.; Domingo-Salvany, A.; Maguire, A.; Cayla, J. A.; Villalbi, J. R.; Hartnoll, R.

    1999-01-01

    STUDY OBJECTIVE: To determine the distribution of opioid use prevalence in small areas and its relation with socioeconomic indicators. DESIGN: Capture-recapture was applied using data from the Barcelona Drug Information System for 1993 (treatment demands, hospital emergency room visits, deaths from heroin acute adverse reaction and pre-trial prison admissions). To avoid dependence between sources, a log-linear regression model with interactions was fitted. For small neighbourhoods, where capture-recapture estimates were not obtainable, the Heroin Problem Index (HPI) was used to predict prevalence rates from a regression model. The correlation between estimated opioid use prevalence by neighbourhoods and their socioeconomic level was computed. MAIN RESULTS: The city's estimated prevalence was 12.9 opioid addicts per 1000 inhabitants aged 15 to 44 years (95% CI: 10.1, 17.2), which represents 9176 persons. The highest rate was found in the inner city neighbourhood. Comparing rates obtained for each neighbourhood with their unemployment rates, a high correlation coefficient was obtained (r = 0.80, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The main contribution of this study is that of combining capture-recapture with the HPI to produce small area prevalence estimates, which would not have been possible using only one method. Areas with higher socioeconomic status showed proportionally low addiction prevalences, but in depressed areas, prevalences varied widely.   PMID:10562867

  11. Accuracy of selected techniques for estimating ice-affected streamflow

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walker, John F.

    1991-01-01

    This paper compares the accuracy of selected techniques for estimating streamflow during ice-affected periods. The techniques are classified into two categories - subjective and analytical - depending on the degree of judgment required. Discharge measurements have been made at three streamflow-gauging sites in Iowa during the 1987-88 winter and used to established a baseline streamflow record for each site. Using data based on a simulated six-week field-tip schedule, selected techniques are used to estimate discharge during the ice-affected periods. For the subjective techniques, three hydrographers have independently compiled each record. Three measures of performance are used to compare the estimated streamflow records with the baseline streamflow records: the average discharge for the ice-affected period, and the mean and standard deviation of the daily errors. Based on average ranks for three performance measures and the three sites, the analytical and subjective techniques are essentially comparable. For two of the three sites, Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis of variance detects significant differences among the three hydrographers for the subjective methods, indicating that the subjective techniques are less consistent than the analytical techniques. The results suggest analytical techniques may be viable tools for estimating discharge during periods of ice effect, and should be developed further and evaluated for sites across the United States.

  12. Estimating ice-affected streamflow by extended Kalman filtering

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holtschlag, D.J.; Grewal, M.S.

    1998-01-01

    An extended Kalman filter was developed to automate the real-time estimation of ice-affected streamflow on the basis of routine measurements of stream stage and air temperature and on the relation between stage and streamflow during open-water (ice-free) conditions. The filter accommodates three dynamic modes of ice effects: sudden formation/ablation, stable ice conditions, and eventual elimination. The utility of the filter was evaluated by applying it to historical data from two long-term streamflow-gauging stations, St. John River at Dickey, Maine and Platte River at North Bend, Nebr. Results indicate that the filter was stable and that parameters converged for both stations, producing streamflow estimates that are highly correlated with published values. For the Maine station, logarithms of estimated streamflows are within 8% of the logarithms of published values 87.2% of the time during periods of ice effects and within 15% 96.6% of the time. Similarly, for the Nebraska station, logarithms of estimated streamflows are within 8% of the logarithms of published values 90.7% of the time and within 15% 97.7% of the time. In addition, the correlation between temporal updates and published streamflows on days of direct measurements at the Maine station was 0.777 and 0.998 for ice-affected and open-water periods, respectively; for the Nebraska station, corresponding correlations were 0.864 and 0.997.

  13. Estimating Contraceptive Prevalence Using Logistics Data for Short-Acting Methods: Analysis Across 30 Countries

    PubMed Central

    Cunningham, Marc; Brown, Niquelle; Sacher, Suzy; Hatch, Benjamin; Inglis, Andrew; Aronovich, Dana

    2015-01-01

    Background: Contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) is a vital indicator used by country governments, international donors, and other stakeholders for measuring progress in family planning programs against country targets and global initiatives as well as for estimating health outcomes. Because of the need for more frequent CPR estimates than population-based surveys currently provide, alternative approaches for estimating CPRs are being explored, including using contraceptive logistics data. Methods: Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in 30 countries, population data from the United States Census Bureau International Database, and logistics data from the Procurement Planning and Monitoring Report (PPMR) and the Pipeline Monitoring and Procurement Planning System (PipeLine), we developed and evaluated 3 models to generate country-level, public-sector contraceptive prevalence estimates for injectable contraceptives, oral contraceptives, and male condoms. Models included: direct estimation through existing couple-years of protection (CYP) conversion factors, bivariate linear regression, and multivariate linear regression. Model evaluation consisted of comparing the referent DHS prevalence rates for each short-acting method with the model-generated prevalence rate using multiple metrics, including mean absolute error and proportion of countries where the modeled prevalence rate for each method was within 1, 2, or 5 percentage points of the DHS referent value. Results: For the methods studied, family planning use estimates from public-sector logistics data were correlated with those from the DHS, validating the quality and accuracy of current public-sector logistics data. Logistics data for oral and injectable contraceptives were significantly associated (P<.05) with the referent DHS values for both bivariate and multivariate models. For condoms, however, that association was only significant for the bivariate model. With the exception of the CYP

  14. Deforestation does not affect the prevalence of a common trypanosome in African birds.

    PubMed

    Valkiūnas, Gediminas; Iezhova, Tatjana A; Sehgal, Ravinder N M

    2016-10-01

    In spite of numerous reports of avian Trypanosoma spp. in birds throughout the world, patterns of the distribution and prevalence of these blood parasites remains insufficiently understood. It is clear that spatial heterogeneity influences parameters of parasite distributions in natural populations, but data regarding avian trypanosomes are scarce. Using microscopy and molecular diagnostic methods, we analysed the variation of prevalence of avian Trypanosoma parasites in two widespread African bird species, the yellow-whiskered greenbul Andropadus latirostris and the olive sunbird Cyanomitra olivacea. In all, 353 birds were captured in pristine forests and agroforest sites in Cameroon and Ghana. Overall, the prevalence of avian trypanosomes was 51.3%. Five morphospecies were reported (Trypanosoma everetti, T. anguiformis, T. avium, T. naviformis, T. ontarioensis). Trypanosoma everetti predominated, representing 98% of all Trypanosoma spp. reports, and it was present in both avian hosts. The prevalence of T. everetti was significantly less in the yellow-whiskered greenbul (19%) than olive sunbird (83%), and the same pattern of prevalence was reported in these avian hosts at different study sites. We found no interaction between sites and the prevalence of T. everetti. For both avian hosts, the prevalence did not differ significantly between pristine forests and agroforests. This indicates the same pattern of transmission at sites with different levels of deforestation and suggests that spatial heterogeneity related to deforestation does not affect the prevalence of avian Trypanosoma infections. It is likely that host-related factors, but not environmental conditions favour or reduce these parasite infections in forests of sub-Saharan Africa. Microscopic and PCR-based diagnostics showed the same sensitivity in diagnostics of T. everetti. We discuss the implications of these findings for the epidemiology of avian trypanosomiasis in natural populations. PMID:27421797

  15. Deforestation does not affect the prevalence of a common trypanosome in African birds.

    PubMed

    Valkiūnas, Gediminas; Iezhova, Tatjana A; Sehgal, Ravinder N M

    2016-10-01

    In spite of numerous reports of avian Trypanosoma spp. in birds throughout the world, patterns of the distribution and prevalence of these blood parasites remains insufficiently understood. It is clear that spatial heterogeneity influences parameters of parasite distributions in natural populations, but data regarding avian trypanosomes are scarce. Using microscopy and molecular diagnostic methods, we analysed the variation of prevalence of avian Trypanosoma parasites in two widespread African bird species, the yellow-whiskered greenbul Andropadus latirostris and the olive sunbird Cyanomitra olivacea. In all, 353 birds were captured in pristine forests and agroforest sites in Cameroon and Ghana. Overall, the prevalence of avian trypanosomes was 51.3%. Five morphospecies were reported (Trypanosoma everetti, T. anguiformis, T. avium, T. naviformis, T. ontarioensis). Trypanosoma everetti predominated, representing 98% of all Trypanosoma spp. reports, and it was present in both avian hosts. The prevalence of T. everetti was significantly less in the yellow-whiskered greenbul (19%) than olive sunbird (83%), and the same pattern of prevalence was reported in these avian hosts at different study sites. We found no interaction between sites and the prevalence of T. everetti. For both avian hosts, the prevalence did not differ significantly between pristine forests and agroforests. This indicates the same pattern of transmission at sites with different levels of deforestation and suggests that spatial heterogeneity related to deforestation does not affect the prevalence of avian Trypanosoma infections. It is likely that host-related factors, but not environmental conditions favour or reduce these parasite infections in forests of sub-Saharan Africa. Microscopic and PCR-based diagnostics showed the same sensitivity in diagnostics of T. everetti. We discuss the implications of these findings for the epidemiology of avian trypanosomiasis in natural populations.

  16. An estimate of the prevalence of biocompatible and habitable planets.

    PubMed

    Fogg, M J

    1992-01-01

    A Monte Carlo computer model of extra-solar planetary formation and evolution, which includes the planetary geochemical carbon cycle, is presented. The results of a run of one million galactic disc stars are shown where the aim was to assess the possible abundance of both biocompatible and habitable planets. (Biocompatible planets are defined as worlds where the long-term presence of surface liquid water provides environmental conditions suitable for the origin and evolution of life. Habitable planets are those worlds with more specifically Earthlike conditions). The model gives an estimate of 1 biocompatible planet per 39 stars, with the subset of habitable planets being much rarer at 1 such planet per 413 stars. The nearest biocompatible planet may thus lie approximately 14 LY distant and the nearest habitable planet approximately 31 LY away. If planets form in multiple star systems then the above planet/star ratios may be more than doubled. By applying the results to stars in the solar neighbourhood, it is possible to identify 28 stars at distances of < 22 LY with a non-zero probability of possessing a biocompatible planet.

  17. An estimate of the prevalence of biocompatible and habitable planets.

    PubMed

    Fogg, M J

    1992-01-01

    A Monte Carlo computer model of extra-solar planetary formation and evolution, which includes the planetary geochemical carbon cycle, is presented. The results of a run of one million galactic disc stars are shown where the aim was to assess the possible abundance of both biocompatible and habitable planets. (Biocompatible planets are defined as worlds where the long-term presence of surface liquid water provides environmental conditions suitable for the origin and evolution of life. Habitable planets are those worlds with more specifically Earthlike conditions). The model gives an estimate of 1 biocompatible planet per 39 stars, with the subset of habitable planets being much rarer at 1 such planet per 413 stars. The nearest biocompatible planet may thus lie approximately 14 LY distant and the nearest habitable planet approximately 31 LY away. If planets form in multiple star systems then the above planet/star ratios may be more than doubled. By applying the results to stars in the solar neighbourhood, it is possible to identify 28 stars at distances of < 22 LY with a non-zero probability of possessing a biocompatible planet. PMID:11539465

  18. A door-to-door survey to estimate the prevalence of Parkinsonism in Pakistan

    PubMed Central

    Khan, Suliman; Nabi, Ghulam; Naeem, Muhammad; Ali, Liaqat; Silburn, Peter A; Mellick, George D

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Parkinson’s disease (PD) occurs in all races and cultures, and population-related differences in frequency may provide etiological clues. The present study was designed to explore the prevalence of PD and Parkinsonism in Pakistan, the world’s sixth most populous country, for which no published prevalence data are available. Methods We conducted a three-phase door-to-door survey in two districts of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan, to assess the prevalence of PD and Parkinsonism in a sample of 4,000 individuals aged 50 years and above. Results We identified 14 cases of Parkinsonism, eleven with a diagnosis of idiopathic PD. The overall prevalence estimates were 1.7/100 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.9–2.46) for Parkinsonism and 1.28/100 (95% CI: 0.6–1.94) for PD in persons aged 65 years and above. The age-standardized prevalence of PD (aged 65 years and above), normalized to the USA population in 2000, was 1.33/100, which is similar to that observed in other human populations. Of the total 14 cases, five were newly diagnosed and four had a family history of PD. Conclusion The estimated prevalence rates in Pakistan are similar to those observed in other human populations. The frequency of familial Parkinsonism is also equivalent to previous estimates. PMID:27382292

  19. Revisiting multi-subject random effects in fMRI: advocating prevalence estimation.

    PubMed

    Rosenblatt, J D; Vink, M; Benjamini, Y

    2014-01-01

    Random effect analysis has been introduced into fMRI research in order to generalize findings from the study group to the whole population. Generalizing findings is obviously harder than detecting activation within the study group since in order to be significant, an activation has to be larger than the inter-subject variability. Indeed, detected regions are smaller when using random effect analysis versus fixed effects. The statistical assumptions behind the classic random effect model are that the effect in each location is normally distributed over subjects, and "activation" refers to a non-null mean effect. We argue that this model is unrealistic compared to the true population variability, where due to function-anatomy inconsistencies and registration anomalies, some of the subjects are active and some are not at each brain location. We propose a Gaussian-mixture-random-effect that amortizes between-subject spatial disagreement and quantifies it using the prevalence of activation at each location. We present a formal definition and an estimation procedure of this prevalence. The end result of the proposed analysis is a map of the prevalence at locations with significant activation, highlighting activation regions that are common over many brains. Prevalence estimation has several desirable properties: (a) It is more informative than the typical active/inactive paradigm. (b) In contrast to the usual display of p-values in activated regions - which trivially converge to 0 for large sample sizes - prevalence estimates converge to the true prevalence. PMID:23988271

  20. Estimating HIV incidence among key affected populations in China from serial cross-sectional surveys in 2010–2014

    PubMed Central

    Cui, Yan; Guo, Wei; Li, Dongmin; Wang, Liyan; Shi, Cynthia X; Brookmeyer, Ron; Detels, Roger; Ge, Lin; Ding, Zhengwei; Wu, Zunyou

    2016-01-01

    Introduction HIV incidence is an important measure for monitoring the development of the epidemic, but it is difficult to ascertain. We combined serial HIV prevalence and mortality data to estimate HIV incidence among key affected populations (KAPs) in China. Methods Serial cross-sectional surveys were conducted among KAPs from 2010 to 2014. Trends in HIV prevalence were assessed by the Cochran-Armitage test, adjusted by risk group. HIV incidence was estimated from a mathematical model that describes the relationship between changes in HIV incidence with HIV prevalence and mortality. Results The crude HIV prevalence for the survey samples remained stable at 1.1 to 1.2% from 2010 to 2014. Among drug users (DUs), HIV prevalence declined from 4.48 to 3.29% (p<0.0001), and among men who have sex with men (MSM), HIV prevalence increased from 5.73 to 7.75% (p<0.0001). Changes in HIV prevalence among female sex workers (FSWs) and male patients of sexually transmitted disease clinics were more modest but remained statistically significant (all p<0.0001). The MSM population had the highest incidence estimates at 0.74% in 2011, 0.59% in 2012, 0.57% in 2013 and 0.53% in 2014. Estimates of the annual incidence for DUs and FSWs were very low and may not be reliable. Conclusions Serial cross-sectional prevalence data from representative samples may be another approach to construct approximate estimates of national HIV incidence among key populations. We observed that the MSM population had the highest incidence for HIV among high-risk groups in China, and we suggest that interventions targeting MSM are urgently needed to curb the growing HIV epidemic. PMID:26989062

  1. Factors affecting the accuracy of chest compression depth estimation

    PubMed Central

    Kang, Jung Hee; Cha, Won Chul; Chae, Minjung Kathy; Park, Hang A; Hwang, Sung Yeon; Jin, Sang Chan; Lee, Tae Rim; Shin, Tae Gun; Sim, Min Seob; Jo, Ik Joon; Song, Keun Jeong; Rhee, Joong Eui; Jeong, Yeon Kwon

    2014-01-01

    Objective We aimed to estimate the accuracy of visual estimation of chest compression depth and identify potential factors affecting accuracy. Methods This simulation study used a basic life support mannequin, the Ambu man. We recorded chest compression with 7 different depths from 1 to 7 cm. Each video clip was recorded for a cycle of compression. Three different viewpoints were used to record the video. After filming, 25 clips were randomly selected. Health care providers in an emergency department were asked to estimate the depth of compressions while watching the selected video clips. Examiner determinants such as experience and cardiopulmonary resuscitation training and environment determinants such as the location of the camera (examiner) were collected and analyzed. An estimated depth was considered correct if it was consistent with the one recorded. A multivariate analysis predicting the accuracy of compression depth estimation was performed. Results Overall, 103 subjects were enrolled in the study; 42 (40.8%) were physicians, 56 (54.4%) nurses, and 5 (4.8%) emergency medical technicians. The mean accuracy was 0.89 (standard deviation, 0.76). Among examiner determinants, only subjects’ occupation and clinical experience showed significant association with outcome (P=0.03 and P=0.08, respectively). All environmental determinants showed significant association with the outcome (all P<0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that accuracy rate was significantly associated with occupation, camera position, and compression depth. Conclusions The accuracy rate of chest compression depth estimation was 0.89 and was significantly related with examiner’s occupation, camera view position, and compression depth.

  2. Methodology significantly affects genome size estimates: quantitative evidence using bryophytes.

    PubMed

    Bainard, Jillian D; Fazekas, Aron J; Newmaster, Steven G

    2010-08-01

    Flow cytometry (FCM) is commonly used to determine plant genome size estimates. Methodology has improved and changed during the past three decades, and researchers are encouraged to optimize protocols for their specific application. However, this step is typically omitted or undescribed in the current plant genome size literature, and this omission could have serious consequences for the genome size estimates obtained. Using four bryophyte species (Brachythecium velutinum, Fissidens taxifolius, Hedwigia ciliata, and Thuidium minutulum), three methodological approaches to the use of FCM in plant genome size estimation were tested. These included nine different buffers (Baranyi's, de Laat's, Galbraith's, General Purpose, LB01, MgSO(4), Otto's, Tris.MgCl(2), and Woody Plant), seven propidium iodide (PI) staining periods (5, 10, 15, 20, 45, 60, and 120 min), and six PI concentrations (10, 25, 50, 100, 150, and 200 microg ml(-1)). Buffer, staining period and staining concentration all had a statistically significant effect (P = 0.05) on the genome size estimates obtained for all four species. Buffer choice and PI concentration had the greatest effect, altering the 1C-values by as much as 8% and 14%, respectively. As well, the quality of the data varied with the different methodology used. Using the methodology determined to be the most accurate in this study (LB01 buffer and PI staining for 20 min at 150 microg ml(-1)), three new genome size estimates were obtained: B. velutinum: 0.46 pg, H. ciliata: 0.30 pg, and T. minutulum: 0.46 pg. While the peak quality of flow cytometry histograms is important, researchers must consider that changes in methodology can also affect the relative peak positions and therefore the genome size estimates obtained for plants using FCM.

  3. Estimation of the prevalence of chronic kidney disease: The results of a model based estimation in Kerman, Iran

    PubMed Central

    Tabrizi, Reza; Zolala, Farzaneh; Nasirian, Maryam; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Etminan, Abbas; Sekhavati, Eghbal; Khodadost, Mahmoud; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar

    2016-01-01

    Background: Chronic kidney disease is asymptomatic until its last stages and though it is increasing globally, we are faced with paucity of a population-based model to assess this disease, particularly in developing countries. Therefore, the aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence and trends of CKD according to a new estimation method. Methods: Using multiplier method, we estimated the numbers of different stages of CKD based on the number of patients with end stage renal failure from 2006 to 2016. The required multipliers were extracted from a simulation of the disease in Kerman following a dynamic model. The 95% uncertainty interval was computed using Monte-Carlo technique with 10,000 iterations. Results: The prevalence of CKDA (GFR<=90mL/min/1.73m2) and CKDB (GFR less than 60mL/min/1.73m2) patients were estimated to be 7.6% (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 5.7-9.1%) and 1.1% (95% UI, 0.8-1.3%), respectively in 2011. The method revealed that the prevalence may rise up to 25.7% (95% UI, 18.2-32.5%) and 3.7% (95% UI, 2.7-4.5%) for CKDA and CKDB, respectively in 2016, indicating approximately 3.3 times increase for both figures. Conclusion: This study predicted an increase in the prevalence of CKD in the future. This may be due to the increasing life expectancy of the population, the increase in the prevalence of non- communicable diseases such as hypertension and diabetes, or patients’ survival due to receiving better support. Therefore, the policymakers should be concerned and well informed about this increase. PMID:27390708

  4. An estimate of the prevalence of dementia in Africa: A systematic analysis

    PubMed Central

    George-Carey, Rhiannon; Adeloye, Davies; Chan, Kit Yee; Paul, Abigail; Kolčić, Ivana; Campbell, Harry; Rudan, Igor

    2012-01-01

    Background The burden of non–communicable diseases is growing, particularly in developing countries. The greatest economic burden is due to dementia, the prevalence of which is rising with increasing longevity. In Africa, where the rate of increase of elderly persons is the fastest in the world, dementia is normally dismissed as a part of normal ageing. The lack of awareness means that many patients are suffering undiagnosed. This review aims to assess the information on the prevalence of dementia in Africa in order to estimate the current burden. Methods A parallel search of Medline, EMBASE and Global Health limited to post–1980 found only 10 relevant studies. Data on prevalence and risk factors were extracted and analysed. We modelled the available information and used the UN population figures for Africa to determine the age–specific and overall burden of dementia. Results The overall prevalence of dementia in adults older than 50 years in Africa was estimated to be about 2.4%, which translates to 2.76 million people living with a disease in 2010. About 2.10 millions of them live in Sub–Saharan Africa. Prevalence was the highest among females aged 80 and over (19.7%) and there was little variation between regions. Alzheimer disease was the most prevalent cause of dementia (57.1%) followed by vascular dementia (26.9%). The main risk factors were increasing age, female sex and cardiovascular disease. Conclusions Information on dementia prevalence in Africa is very limited. Further research will not only provide a more reliable estimate of prevalence, and consequently the burden of disease, but will also raise awareness of the problem. This is critical in promoting help–seeking behaviour and generating the political commitment to make dementia a public health priority in Africa. PMID:23289076

  5. High Prevalence and Clinical Relevance of Genes Affected by Chromosomal Breaks in Colorectal Cancer

    PubMed Central

    van den Broek, Evert; Dijkstra, Maurits J. J.; Krijgsman, Oscar; Sie, Daoud; Haan, Josien C.; Traets, Joleen J. H.; van de Wiel, Mark A.; Nagtegaal, Iris D.; Punt, Cornelis J. A.; Carvalho, Beatriz; Ylstra, Bauke; Abeln, Sanne; Meijer, Gerrit A.; Fijneman, Remond J. A.

    2015-01-01

    Background Cancer is caused by somatic DNA alterations such as gene point mutations, DNA copy number aberrations (CNA) and structural variants (SVs). Genome-wide analyses of SVs in large sample series with well-documented clinical information are still scarce. Consequently, the impact of SVs on carcinogenesis and patient outcome remains poorly understood. This study aimed to perform a systematic analysis of genes that are affected by CNA-associated chromosomal breaks in colorectal cancer (CRC) and to determine the clinical relevance of recurrent breakpoint genes. Methods Primary CRC samples of patients with metastatic disease from CAIRO and CAIRO2 clinical trials were previously characterized by array-comparative genomic hybridization. These data were now used to determine the prevalence of CNA-associated chromosomal breaks within genes across 352 CRC samples. In addition, mutation status of the commonly affected APC, TP53, KRAS, PIK3CA, FBXW7, SMAD4, BRAF and NRAS genes was determined for 204 CRC samples by targeted massive parallel sequencing. Clinical relevance was assessed upon stratification of patients based on gene mutations and gene breakpoints that were observed in >3% of CRC cases. Results In total, 748 genes were identified that were recurrently affected by chromosomal breaks (FDR <0.1). MACROD2 was affected in 41% of CRC samples and another 169 genes showed breakpoints in >3% of cases, indicating that prevalence of gene breakpoints is comparable to the prevalence of well-known gene point mutations. Patient stratification based on gene breakpoints and point mutations revealed one CRC subtype with very poor prognosis. Conclusions We conclude that CNA-associated chromosomal breaks within genes represent a highly prevalent and clinically relevant subset of SVs in CRC. PMID:26375816

  6. Mental health disorders among individuals with mental retardation: challenges to accurate prevalence estimates.

    PubMed Central

    Kerker, Bonnie D.; Owens, Pamela L.; Zigler, Edward; Horwitz, Sarah M.

    2004-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this literature review were to assess current challenges to estimating the prevalence of mental health disorders among individuals with mental retardation (MR) and to develop recommendations to improve such estimates for this population. METHODS: The authors identified 200 peer-reviewed articles, book chapters, government documents, or reports from national and international organizations on the mental health status of people with MR. Based on the study's inclusion criteria, 52 articles were included in the review. RESULTS: Available data reveal inconsistent estimates of the prevalence of mental health disorders among those with MR, but suggest that some mental health conditions are more common among these individuals than in the general population. Two main challenges to identifying accurate prevalence estimates were found: (1) health care providers have difficulty diagnosing mental health conditions among individuals with MR; and (2) methodological limitations of previous research inhibit confidence in study results. CONCLUSIONS: Accurate prevalence estimates are necessary to ensure the availability of appropriate treatment services. To this end, health care providers should receive more training regarding the mental health treatment of individuals with MR. Further, government officials should discuss mechanisms of collecting nationally representative data, and the research community should utilize consistent methods with representative samples when studying mental health conditions in this population. PMID:15219798

  7. The Lifetime Prevalence of Anabolic-Androgenic Steroid Use and Dependence in Americans: Current Best Estimates

    PubMed Central

    Pope, Harrison G.; Kanayama, Gen; Athey, Alison; Ryan, Erin; Hudson, James I.; Baggish, Aaron

    2013-01-01

    Background and Objectives Although various surveys have tracked the prevalence of anabolic-androgenic steroid (AAS) use in American teenagers and young adults, no recent surveys have assessed the lifetime prevalence of AAS use in Americans overall. We therefore analyzed serial youth-survey data to derive estimates of the lifetime prevalence of AAS use in the current American general population. Methods We first determined the distribution of age of onset of AAS use, based on pooled data from nine studies. Using this distribution, we then developed equations to project the eventual lifetime prevalence of AAS use among young survey respondents, once they aged and completed the period of risk for initiating AAS. We similarly calculated the denominator of lifetimes of risk for AAS use in the total American population. We next applied these equations to four independent national youth datasets to derive current American general-population estimates for lifetime AAS use. Finally, using data from 10 pooled studies, we estimated the lifetime prevalence of AAS dependence among AAS users. Results Age-of-onset studies consistently showed that AAS use begins later than most drugs, with only 22% of users (95% confidence interval: 19%–25%) starting before age 20. Applying the age-of-onset findings to national youth datasets, we estimated that among Americans currently age 13 to 50 years, 2.9–4.0 million have used AAS. Within this group, roughly 1 million may have experienced AAS dependence. Conclusions and Scientific Significance Although subject to various limitations, our estimation techniques suggest a surprisinigly high prevalence of AAS use and dependence among Americans. PMID:24112239

  8. Obesity prevalence estimates in a Canadian regional population of preschool children using variant growth references

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Childhood obesity is a public health problem in Canada. Accurate measurement of a health problem is crucial in defining its burden. The objective of this study is to compare the prevalence estimates of overweight and obesity in preschool children using three growth references. Methods Weights and heights were measured on 1026 preschool children born in Newfoundland and Labrador (NL), Canada, and body mass index calculated. The prevalence of overweight and obesity was determined and statistical comparisons conducted among the three growth references; the Centres for Disease Control (CDC), the International Obesity Task Force (IOTF) and the World Health Organization (WHO). Results CDC and IOTF produced similar estimates of the prevalence of overweight, 19.1% versus 18.2% while the WHO reported a higher prevalence 26.7% (p < .001). The CDC classified twice as many children as obese compared to the IOTF 16.6% versus 8.3% (p < .001) and a third more than the WHO 16.6% versus 11.3% (p < .01). There was variable level of agreement between methods. Conclusions The CDC reported a much higher prevalence of obesity compared to the other references. The prevalence of childhood obesity is dependent on the growth reference used. PMID:21356057

  9. [Factors affecting the estimation of pollen limitation in Sagittaria trifolia].

    PubMed

    Qin, Dao-feng; Li, Ting; Dai, Can

    2015-12-01

    This study explored whether the degree of pollen limitation was affected by the experimental level (a single flower or inflorescence) and pollen quality (self-pollen or outcross-pollen) of supplemental pollination in Sagittaria trifolia. The results showed that the experimental level caused varying degree of pollen limitation. Compared with the inflorescence level, pollination at the single flower level led to a redistribution of resources among flowers, therefore affecting seed numbers. Pollen quality also played a vital role in the estimation of pollen limitation. Compared with self-pollen, supplemental pollination with outcross-pollen resulted in significantly more seeds and a higher germination rate. This proved that in the research system the reproduction was limited by pollen quality rather than quantity. Our study revealed that both experimental level and pollen quality had effects on the estimation of pollen limitation. It was suggested that in future studies we should evaluate pollen limitation at the inflorescence or whole plant level, and also consider comparing self- and outcross-pollen when applicable.

  10. [Factors affecting the estimation of pollen limitation in Sagittaria trifolia].

    PubMed

    Qin, Dao-feng; Li, Ting; Dai, Can

    2015-12-01

    This study explored whether the degree of pollen limitation was affected by the experimental level (a single flower or inflorescence) and pollen quality (self-pollen or outcross-pollen) of supplemental pollination in Sagittaria trifolia. The results showed that the experimental level caused varying degree of pollen limitation. Compared with the inflorescence level, pollination at the single flower level led to a redistribution of resources among flowers, therefore affecting seed numbers. Pollen quality also played a vital role in the estimation of pollen limitation. Compared with self-pollen, supplemental pollination with outcross-pollen resulted in significantly more seeds and a higher germination rate. This proved that in the research system the reproduction was limited by pollen quality rather than quantity. Our study revealed that both experimental level and pollen quality had effects on the estimation of pollen limitation. It was suggested that in future studies we should evaluate pollen limitation at the inflorescence or whole plant level, and also consider comparing self- and outcross-pollen when applicable. PMID:27112030

  11. Prevalence of hospitalized live births affected by alcohol and drugs and parturient women diagnosed with substance abuse at liveborn delivery: United States, 1999-2008.

    PubMed

    Pan, I-Jen; Yi, Hsiao-ye

    2013-05-01

    To describe prevalence trends in hospitalized live births affected by placental transmission of alcohol and drugs, as well as prevalence trends among parturient women hospitalized for liveborn delivery and diagnosed with substance abuse problems in the United States from 1999 to 2008. Comparison of the two sets of trends helps determine whether the observed changes in neonatal problems over time were caused by shifts in maternal substance abuse problems. This study independently identified hospitalized live births and maternal live born deliveries from discharge records in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, one of the largest hospital administrative databases. Substance-related diagnosis codes on the records were used to identify live births affected by alcohol and drugs and parturient women with substance abuse problems. The analysis calculated prevalence differences and percentage changes over the 10 years, with Loess curves fitted to 10-year prevalence estimates to depict trend patterns. Linear and quadratic trends in prevalence were simultaneously tested using logistic regression analyses. The study also examined data on costs, primary expected payer, and length of hospital stays. From 1999 to 2008, prevalence increased for narcotic- and hallucinogen-affected live births and neonatal drug withdrawal syndrome but decreased for alcohol- and cocaine-affected live births. Maternal substance abuse at delivery showed similar trends, but prevalence of alcohol abuse remained relatively stable. Substance-affected live births required longer hospital stays and higher medical expenses, mostly billable to Medicaid. The findings highlight the urgent need for behavioral intervention and early treatment for substance-abusing pregnant women to reduce the number of substance-affected live births.

  12. Global and regional estimates of COPD prevalence: Systematic review and meta–analysis

    PubMed Central

    Adeloye, Davies; Chua, Stephen; Lee, Chinwei; Basquill, Catriona; Papana, Angeliki; Theodoratou, Evropi; Nair, Harish; Gasevic, Danijela; Sridhar, Devi; Campbell, Harry; Chan, Kit Yee; Sheikh, Aziz; Rudan, Igor

    2015-01-01

    Background The burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) across many world regions is high. We aim to estimate COPD prevalence and number of disease cases for the years 1990 and 2010 across world regions based on the best available evidence in publicly accessible scientific databases. Methods We conducted a systematic search of Medline, EMBASE and Global Health for original, population–based studies providing spirometry–based prevalence rates of COPD across the world from January 1990 to December 2014. Random effects meta–analysis was conducted on extracted crude prevalence rates of COPD, with overall summaries of the meta–estimates (and confidence intervals) reported separately for World Health Organization (WHO) regions, the World Bank's income categories and settings (urban and rural). We developed a meta–regression epidemiological model that we used to estimate the prevalence of COPD in people aged 30 years or more. Findings Our search returned 37 472 publications. A total of 123 studies based on a spirometry–defined prevalence were retained for the review. From the meta–regression epidemiological model, we estimated about 227.3 million COPD cases in the year 1990 among people aged 30 years or more, corresponding to a global prevalence of 10.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 7.3%–14.0%) in this age group. The number of COPD cases increased to 384 million in 2010, with a global prevalence of 11.7% (8.4%–15.0%). This increase of 68.9% was mainly driven by global demographic changes. Across WHO regions, the highest prevalence was estimated in the Americas (13.3% in 1990 and 15.2% in 2010), and the lowest in South East Asia (7.9% in 1990 and 9.7% in 2010). The percentage increase in COPD cases between 1990 and 2010 was the highest in the Eastern Mediterranean region (118.7%), followed by the African region (102.1%), while the European region recorded the lowest increase (22.5%). In 1990, we estimated about 120.9 million COPD cases

  13. Methodological aspects of estimating rare cancer prevalence in Europe: the experience of the RARECARE project.

    PubMed

    Mallone, Sandra; De Angelis, Roberta; van der Zwan, Jan Maarten; Trama, Annalisa; Siesling, Sabine; Gatta, Gemma; Capocaccia, Riccardo

    2013-12-01

    This paper describes the usage and the performance evaluation of the completeness index method in the 'Surveillance of Rare Cancers in Europe project' (RARECARE) for estimating rare cancer prevalence in Europe. The 15-year prevalence at 1st January 2003 for 255 cancers is obtained from a pool of 22 RARECARE cancer registries (CRs). Incidence and survival models are applied to the RARECARE database to estimate the parameters from which the completeness indices are calculated. Complete prevalence is obtained adjusting the observed 15-year prevalence by the completeness index, to account for those cancer survivors diagnosed before the CR activity started. Main factors influencing the performance of the completeness index method for rare cancers are the same as for common cancers: age distribution of incidence and lethality of the cancer. For cancers occurring in the elderly, with low survival rates and consequently a restricted number of long-term survivors we obtained completeness indices higher than 0.9. Values lower than 0.7 correspond to those cancers with good prognosis and/or incidence more concentrated at the younger ages, indicating that 15 years of follow up are insufficient to detect all prevalent cases. Validation analysis shows that for a restricted subgroup of rare cancers with very low incidence and low survival, the completeness indices were not able to adequately correct the observed prevalence even considering a registration period of 20 years. On average, sensitivity analyses show a slight overestimation of complete prevalence for rare and common cancers whose increasing incidence is known in literature. RARECARE is the largest project on rare cancers conducted to date. Improving health care programs for cancer survivors is a public health priority and prevalence data which provides important information in this field should be regularly asked to Member States and included in the EU health statistics.

  14. Body dysmorphic disorder in different settings: A systematic review and estimated weighted prevalence.

    PubMed

    Veale, David; Gledhill, Lucinda J; Christodoulou, Polyxeni; Hodsoll, John

    2016-09-01

    Our aim was to systematically review the prevalence of body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) in a variety of settings. Weighted prevalence estimate and 95% confidence intervals in each study were calculated. The weighted prevalence of BDD in adults in the community was estimated to be 1.9%; in adolescents 2.2%; in student populations 3.3%; in adult psychiatric inpatients 7.4%; in adolescent psychiatric inpatients 7.4%; in adult psychiatric outpatients 5.8%; in general cosmetic surgery 13.2%; in rhinoplasty surgery 20.1%; in orthognathic surgery 11.2%; in orthodontics/cosmetic dentistry settings 5.2%; in dermatology outpatients 11.3%; in cosmetic dermatology outpatients 9.2%; and in acne dermatology clinics 11.1%. Women outnumbered men in the majority of settings but not in cosmetic or dermatological settings. BDD is common in some psychiatric and cosmetic settings but is poorly identified. PMID:27498379

  15. Satellite-based Estimates of Ambient Air Pollution and Global Variations in Childhood Asthma Prevalence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, H. Ross; Butland, Barbara K.; Donkelaar, Aaron Matthew Van; Brauer, Michael; Strachan, David P.; Clayton, Tadd; van Dingenen, Rita; Amann, Marcus; Brunekreef, Bert; Cohen, Aaron; Dentener, Frank; Lai, Christopher; Lamsal, Lok N.; Martin, Randall V.

    2012-01-01

    Background: The effect of ambient air pollution on global variations and trends in asthma prevalence is unclear. Objectives: Our goal was to investigate community-level associations between asthma prevalence data from the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) and satellite-based estimates of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and modelled estimates of ozone. Methods: We assigned satellite-based estimates of PM2.5 and NO2 at a spatial resolution of 0.1deg × 0.1deg and modeled estimates of ozone at a resolution of 1deg × 1deg to 183 ISAAC centers. We used center-level prevalence of severe asthma as the outcome and multilevel models to adjust for gross national income (GNI) and center- and country-level sex, climate, and population density. We examined associations (adjusting for GNI) between air pollution and asthma prevalence over time in centers with data from ISAAC Phase One (mid-1900s) and Phase Three (2001-2003). Results: For the 13- to 14-year age group (128 centers in 28 countries), the estimated average within-country change in center-level asthma prevalence per 100 children per 10% increase in center-level PM2.5 and NO2 was -0.043 [95% confidence interval (CI): -0.139, 0.053] and 0.017 (95% CI: -0.030, 0.064) respectively. For ozone the estimated change in prevalence per parts per billion by volume was -0.116 (95% CI: -0.234, 0.001). Equivalent results for the 6- to 7-year age group (83 centers in 20 countries), though slightly different, were not significantly positive. For the 13- to 14-year age group, change in center-level asthma prevalence over time per 100 children per 10% increase in PM2.5 from Phase One to Phase Three was -0.139 (95% CI: -0.347, 0.068). The corresponding association with ozone (per ppbV) was -0.171 (95% CI: -0.275, -0.067). Conclusion: In contrast to reports from within-community studies of individuals exposed to traffic pollution, we did not find

  16. Satellite-based Estimates of Ambient Air Pollution and Global Variations in Childhood Asthma Prevalence

    PubMed Central

    Butland, Barbara K.; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Brauer, Michael; Strachan, David P.; Clayton, Tadd; van Dingenen, Rita; Amann, Marcus; Brunekreef, Bert; Cohen, Aaron; Dentener, Frank; Lai, Christopher; Lamsal, Lok N.; Martin, Randall V.; One, ISAAC Phase

    2012-01-01

    Background: The effect of ambient air pollution on global variations and trends in asthma prevalence is unclear. Objectives: Our goal was to investigate community-level associations between asthma prevalence data from the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) and satellite-based estimates of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 µm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and modelled estimates of ozone. Methods: We assigned satellite-based estimates of PM2.5 and NO2 at a spatial resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° and modeled estimates of ozone at a resolution of 1° × 1° to 183 ISAAC centers. We used center-level prevalence of severe asthma as the outcome and multilevel models to adjust for gross national income (GNI) and center- and country-level sex, climate, and population density. We examined associations (adjusting for GNI) between air pollution and asthma prevalence over time in centers with data from ISAAC Phase One (mid-1900s) and Phase Three (2001–2003). Results: For the 13- to 14-year age group (128 centers in 28 countries), the estimated average within-country change in center-level asthma prevalence per 100 children per 10% increase in center-level PM2.5 and NO2 was –0.043 [95% confidence interval (CI): –0.139, 0.053] and 0.017 (95% CI: –0.030, 0.064) respectively. For ozone the estimated change in prevalence per parts per billion by volume was –0.116 (95% CI: –0.234, 0.001). Equivalent results for the 6- to 7-year age group (83 centers in 20 countries), though slightly different, were not significantly positive. For the 13- to 14-year age group, change in center-level asthma prevalence over time per 100 children per 10% increase in PM2.5 from Phase One to Phase Three was –0.139 (95% CI: –0.347, 0.068). The corresponding association with ozone (per ppbV) was –0.171 (95% CI: –0.275, –0.067). Conclusion: In contrast to reports from within-community studies of individuals exposed to traffic pollution

  17. The estimated prevalence and incidence of HIV in 96 large US metropolitan areas.

    PubMed Central

    Holmberg, S D

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: This study sought to estimate the size and direction of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic in US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) with populations greater than 500,000. METHODS: A "components model" from review of more than 350 documents, several large datasets, and information from 220 public health personnel was used. Data review focused on injection drug users, men who have sex with men, and high-risk heterosexual men and women. RESULTS: In the 96 MSAs, there are, broadly, an estimated 1.5 million injection drug users, 1.7 million gay and bisexual men, and 2.1 million at-risk heterosexuals, and, among them, an estimated 565,000 prevalent and 38,000 incident HIV infections. This implies about 700,000 prevalent and 41,000 new HIV infections yearly in the United States. Roughly half of all estimated new infections are occurring among injection drug users, most of them in northeastern cities, Miami, and San Juan. Gay and bisexual men still represent most prevalent HIV infections, although incidence--except in young and minority gay men--is much lower now than it was a decade ago. Relatively high prevalences of HIV in at-risk heterosexual persons in several cities indicate the potential for an increase in transmission among them. CONCLUSIONS: This review and synthesis outline the comparative epidemiology of HIV in major US cities and identify populations for interventions. PMID:8629714

  18. Prevalence Estimates of Health Risk Behaviors of Immigrant Latino Men Who Have Sex with Men

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rhodes, Scott D.; McCoy, Thomas P.; Hergenrather, Kenneth C.; Vissman, Aaron T.; Wolfson, Mark; Alonzo, Jorge; Bloom, Fred R.; Alegria-Ortega, Jose; Eng, Eugenia

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: Little is known about the health status of rural immigrant Latino men who have sex with men (MSM). These MSM comprise a subpopulation that tends to remain "hidden" from both researchers and practitioners. This study was designed to estimate the prevalence of tobacco, alcohol, and drug use, and sexual risk behaviors of Latino MSM living in…

  19. Estimated Prevalence of People with Cognitive Impairment: Results from Nationally Representative Community and Institutional Surveys

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bernstein, Amy B.; Remsburg, Robin E.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: We address how the national prevalence of cognitive impairment can be estimated from two nationally representative surveys. Design and Methods: Data are from the 1999-2001 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the 1999 National Nursing Home Survey (NNHS). The NHIS represents all community-dwelling people living in the United States,…

  20. Redrawing the US Obesity Landscape: Bias-Corrected Estimates of State-Specific Adult Obesity Prevalence

    PubMed Central

    Ward, Zachary J.; Long, Michael W.; Resch, Stephen C.; Gortmaker, Steven L.; Cradock, Angie L.; Giles, Catherine; Hsiao, Amber; Wang, Y. Claire

    2016-01-01

    Background State-level estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) underestimate the obesity epidemic because they use self-reported height and weight. We describe a novel bias-correction method and produce corrected state-level estimates of obesity and severe obesity. Methods Using non-parametric statistical matching, we adjusted self-reported data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) 2013 (n = 386,795) using measured data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (n = 16,924). We validated our national estimates against NHANES and estimated bias-corrected state-specific prevalence of obesity (BMI≥30) and severe obesity (BMI≥35). We compared these results with previous adjustment methods. Results Compared to NHANES, self-reported BRFSS data underestimated national prevalence of obesity by 16% (28.67% vs 34.01%), and severe obesity by 23% (11.03% vs 14.26%). Our method was not significantly different from NHANES for obesity or severe obesity, while previous methods underestimated both. Only four states had a corrected obesity prevalence below 30%, with four exceeding 40%–in contrast, most states were below 30% in CDC maps. Conclusions Twelve million adults with obesity (including 6.7 million with severe obesity) were misclassified by CDC state-level estimates. Previous bias-correction methods also resulted in underestimates. Accurate state-level estimates are necessary to plan for resources to address the obesity epidemic. PMID:26954566

  1. Prevalence Estimates of Health Risk Behaviors of Immigrant Latino Men Who Have Sex With Men

    PubMed Central

    Rhodes, Scott D.; McCoy, Thomas P.; Hergenrather, Kenneth C.; Vissman, Aaron T.; Wolfson, Mark; Alonzo, Jorge; Bloom, Fred R.; Alegría-Ortega, Jose; Eng, Eugenia

    2011-01-01

    Purpose Little is known about the health status of rural immigrant Latino men who have sex with men (MSM). These MSM comprise a subpopulation that tends to remain “hidden” from both researchers and practitioners. This study was designed to estimate the prevalence of tobacco, alcohol, and drug use, and sexual risk behaviors of Latino MSM living in rural North Carolina. Methods A community-based participatory research (CBPR) partnership used respondent-driven sampling (RDS) to identify, recruit, and enroll Latino MSM to participate in an interviewer-administered behavioral assessment. RDS weighted prevalence of risk behaviors was estimated using the RDS Analysis Tool. Data collection occurred in 2008. Results A total of 190 Latino MSM was reached; the average age was 25.5 years old and nearly 80% reported being from Mexico. Prevalence estimates of smoking everyday and past 30-day heavy episodic drinking were 6.5% and 35.0%, respectively. Prevalence estimates of past 12-month marijuana and cocaine use were 56.0% and 27.1%, respectively. Past 3-month prevalence estimates of sex with at least one woman, multiple male partners, and inconsistent condom use were 21.2%, 88.9%, and 54.1%, respectively. Conclusions Respondents had low rates of tobacco use and club drug use, and high rates of sexual risk behaviors. Although this study represents an initial step in documenting the health risk behaviors of immigrant Latino MSM who are part of a new trend in Latino immigration to the southeastern US, a need exists for further research, including longitudinal studies to understand the trajectory of risk behavior among immigrant Latino MSM. PMID:22236317

  2. Evidence base for children affected by HIV and AIDS in low prevalence and concentrated epidemic countries: applicability to programming guidance from high prevalence countries.

    PubMed

    Franco, Lynne Miller; Burkhalter, Bart; de Wagt, Arjan; Jennings, Larissa; Kelley, Allison Gamble; Hammink, Marie-Eve

    2009-01-01

    As global commitment grows to protect and support children affected by HIV and AIDS, questions remain about how best to meet the needs of these children in low prevalence settings and whether information from high prevalence countries can appropriately guide programming in these settings. A 2007 search for the evidence in low prevalence settings on situational challenges of HIV and AIDS-affected children and interventions to address these challenges identified 413 documents. They were reviewed and judged for quality of documentation and scientific rigor. Information was compiled across eight types of challenges (health and health care, nutrition and food security, education, protection, placement, psychosocial development, socioeconomic status, and stigma/discrimination); and also assessed was strength of evidence for situational and intervention findings. Results were compared to three programming principles drawn from research in high prevalence countries: family-centered preventive efforts, treatment, and care; family-focused support to ensure capacity to care for and protect these children; and sustaining economic livelihood of HIV and AIDS-affected households. Findings show that children affected by HIV and AIDS in low prevalence settings face increased vulnerabilities similar to those in high prevalence settings. These findings support seeking and testing programmatic directions for interventions identified in high prevalence settings. However, low prevalence settings/countries are extremely diverse, and the strength of the evidence base among them was mixed (strong, moderate, and weak in study design and documentation), geographically limited, and had insufficient evidence on interventions to draw conclusions about how best to reduce additional vulnerabilities of affected children. Information on family, economic, sociocultural, and political factors within local contexts will be vital in the development of appropriate strategies to mitigate vulnerabilities.

  3. Evidence base for children affected by HIV and AIDS in low prevalence and concentrated epidemic countries: applicability to programming guidance from high prevalence countries

    PubMed Central

    Franco, Lynne Miller; Burkhalter, Bart; de Wagt, Arjan; Jennings, Larissa; Kelley, Allison Gamble; Hammink, Marie-Eve

    2009-01-01

    As global commitment grows to protect and support children affected by HIV and AIDS, questions remain about how best to meet the needs of these children in low prevalence settings and whether information from high prevalence countries can appropriately guide programming in these settings. A 2007 search for the evidence in low prevalence settings on situational challenges of HIV and AIDS-affected children and interventions to address these challenges identified 413 documents. They were reviewed and judged for quality of documentation and scientific rigor. Information was compiled across eight types of challenges (health and health care, nutrition and food security, education, protection, placement, psychosocial development, socioeconomic status, and stigma/ discrimination); and also assessed was strength of evidence for situational and intervention findings. Results were compared to three programming principles drawn from research in high prevalence countries: family-centered preventive efforts, treatment, and care; family-focused support to ensure capacity to care for and protect these children; and sustaining economic livelihood of HIV and AIDS-affected households. Findings show that children affected by HIV and AIDS in low prevalence settings face increased vulnerabilities similar to those in high prevalence settings. These findings support seeking and testing programmatic directions for interventions identified in high prevalence settings. However, low prevalence settings/countries are extremely diverse, and the strength of the evidence base among them was mixed (strong, moderate, and weak in study design and documentation), geographically limited, and had insufficient evidence on interventions to draw conclusions about how best to reduce additional vulnerabilities of affected children. Information on family, economic, sociocultural, and political factors within local contexts will be vital in the development of appropriate strategies to mitigate vulnerabilities

  4. Accuracy of Herdsmen Reporting versus Serologic Testing for Estimating Foot-and-Mouth Disease Prevalence

    PubMed Central

    Handel, Ian G.; Tanya, Vincent N.; Hamman, Saidou M.; Nfon, Charles; Bergman, Ingrid E.; Malirat, Viviana; Sorensen, Karl J.; Bronsvoort, Barend M. de C.

    2014-01-01

    Herdsman-reported disease prevalence is widely used in veterinary epidemiologic studies, especially for diseases with visible external lesions; however, the accuracy of such reports is rarely validated. Thus, we used latent class analysis in a Bayesian framework to compare sensitivity and specificity of herdsman reporting with virus neutralization testing and use of 3 nonstructural protein ELISAs for estimates of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) prevalence on the Adamawa plateau of Cameroon in 2000. Herdsman-reported estimates in this FMD-endemic area were comparable to those obtained from serologic testing. To harness to this cost-effective resource of monitoring emerging infectious diseases, we suggest that estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of herdsmen reporting should be done in parallel with serologic surveys of other animal diseases. PMID:25417556

  5. EEG-based workload estimation across affective contexts

    PubMed Central

    Mühl, Christian; Jeunet, Camille; Lotte, Fabien

    2014-01-01

    Workload estimation from electroencephalographic signals (EEG) offers a highly sensitive tool to adapt the human–computer interaction to the user state. To create systems that reliably work in the complexity of the real world, a robustness against contextual changes (e.g., mood), has to be achieved. To study the resilience of state-of-the-art EEG-based workload classification against stress we devise a novel experimental protocol, in which we manipulated the affective context (stressful/non-stressful) while the participant solved a task with two workload levels. We recorded self-ratings, behavior, and physiology from 24 participants to validate the protocol. We test the capability of different, subject-specific workload classifiers using either frequency-domain, time-domain, or both feature varieties to generalize across contexts. We show that the classifiers are able to transfer between affective contexts, though performance suffers independent of the used feature domain. However, cross-context training is a simple and powerful remedy allowing the extraction of features in all studied feature varieties that are more resilient to task-unrelated variations in signal characteristics. Especially for frequency-domain features, across-context training is leading to a performance comparable to within-context training and testing. We discuss the significance of the result for neurophysiology-based workload detection in particular and for the construction of reliable passive brain–computer interfaces in general. PMID:24971046

  6. HIV prevalence estimates and AIDS case projections for the United States: report based upon a workshop.

    PubMed

    1990-11-30

    This document presents conclusions and recommendations from a workshop convened to discuss national estimates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence, acquired immunodeficiency virus (AIDS) case projections, and the proportion of HIV-infected persons with laboratory evidence of immune dysfunction. Appendices describe analyses performed before and after the workshop to estimate HIV prevalence and to predict future AIDS cases, the prevalence of persons with AIDS, and deaths among persons with AIDS. On the basis of these analyses, CDC estimates that approximately 750,000 persons in the United States were infected with AIDS at the beginning of 1986 and that approximately 1,000,000 Americans are currently infected with HIV. At least 40,000 new HIV infections occur each year among adults and adolescents, and an estimated 1,500-2,000 new infections occur each year among newborns as a result of perinatal HIV transmission. Approximately 60% of the estimated 1,000,000 HIV-infected persons in the United States may have T-helper lymphocyte (CD4+ cell) counts of less than 500/mm3 of blood and may benefit from early treatment with zidovudine. The number of AIDS cases will continue to increase over the next 4 years, with a projection of 52,000-57,000 cases to be diagnosed in 1990. Both AIDS case projections and HIV-prevalence estimates are influenced by the slowing of the rapid upward trend in AIDS incidence that occurred in 1987, particularly among homosexual and bisexual men who are not intravenous drug users. Data available during and after the workshop suggest that medical therapy or a decline in the incidence of new HIV infections among homosexual men in the early 1980s could have contributed to this change in trend, but the relative contributions of these and other factors (including changes in the completeness or timeliness of AIDS case reporting) require further study.

  7. Estimating the Prevalence and Awareness Rates of Hypertension in Africa: A Systematic Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Adeloye, Davies; Basquill, Catriona

    2014-01-01

    Background The burden of hypertension is high in Africa, and due to rapid population growth and ageing, the exact burden on the continent is still far from being known. We aimed to estimate the prevalence and awareness rates of hypertension in Africa based on the cut off “≥140/90 mm Hg”. Methods We conducted a systematic search of Medline, EMBASE and Global Health. Search date was set from January 1980 to December 2013. We included population-based studies on hypertension, conducted among people aged ≥15 years and providing numerical estimates on the prevalence of hypertension in Africa. Overall pooled prevalence of hypertension in mixed, rural and urban settings in Africa were estimated from reported crude prevalence rates. A meta-regression epidemiological modelling, using United Nations population demographics for the years 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2030, was applied to determine the prevalence rates and number of cases of hypertension in Africa separately for these four years. Results Our search returned 7680 publications, 92 of which met the selection criteria. The overall pooled prevalence of hypertension in Africa was 19.7% in 1990, 27.4% in 2000 and 30.8% in 2010, each with a pooled awareness rate (expressed as percentage of hypertensive cases) of 16.9%, 29.2% and 33.7%, respectively. From the modelling, over 54.6 million cases of hypertension were estimated in 1990, 92.3 million cases in 2000, 130.2 million cases in 2010, and a projected increase to 216.8 million cases of hypertension by 2030; each with an age-adjusted prevalence of 19.1% (13.9, 25.5), 24.3% (23.3, 31.6), 25.9% (23.5, 34.0), and 25.3% (24.3, 39.7), respectively. Conclusion Our findings suggest the prevalence of hypertension is increasing in Africa, and many hypertensive individuals are not aware of their condition. We hope this research will prompt appropriate policy response towards improving the awareness, control and overall management of hypertension in Africa. PMID:25090232

  8. Estimation of global and regional incidence and prevalence of abdominal aortic aneurysms 1990 to 2010.

    PubMed

    Sampson, Uchechukwu K A; Norman, Paul E; Fowkes, F Gerald R; Aboyans, Victor; Song, Yanna; Harrell, Frank E; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Naghavi, Mohsen; Denenberg, Julie O; McDermott, Mary M; Criqui, Michael H; Mensah, George A; Ezzati, Majid; Murray, Christopher

    2014-03-01

    The global burden of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) has not been studied previously. Such information is important given the emergence of cardiovascular diseases in developing countries. We conducted a systematic literature review and estimated the global and regional incidence and prevalence of AAA in 21 world regions by age and sex. The search for prevalence and incidence of AAA using standard clinical and epidemiological terms was conducted using MEDLINE (1950 to 2010), EMBASE (1980 to 2010), AMED (1985 to 2010), CINAHL (1982 to 2010), and LILACS (2008 to 2010). Data abstracted from the systematic review served as priors for Bayesian meta-regression analyses. The analysis drew from 26 high-quality studies to estimate AAA prevalence and incidence. In 1990, the global age-specific prevalence rate per 100,000 ranged from 8.43 (95% CI: 7.03 to 10.14) in the 40 to 44 years age group to 2,422.53 (95% CI: 2,298.63 to 2,562.25) in the 75 to 79 years age group; the corresponding range in 2010 was 7.88 (95% CI: 6.54 to 9.59) to 2,274.82 (95% CI: 2,149.77 to 2,410.17). Prevalence was higher in developed versus developing nations, and the rates within each development stratum decreased between 1990 and 2010. Globally, the age-specific annual incidence rate per 100,000 in 1990 ranged from 0.89 (95% CI: 0.66 to 1.17) in 40 to 44 years age group to 176.08 (95% CI: 162.72 to 190.28) in the 75 to 79 years age group. In 2010, this range was 0.83 (95% CI: 0.61 to 1.11) to 164.57 (95% CI: 152.20 to 178.78). The highest prevalence in 1990 was in Australasia and North America high income regions: 382.65 (95% CI: 356.27 to 410.88) and 300.59 (95% CI: 280.93 to 321.54), respectively. Australasia had the highest prevalence in 2010, although the prevalence decreased to 310.27 (95% CI: 289.01 to 332.94). Regional prevalence increased in Oceania, tropical Latin America, Asia Pacific high income, Southern Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Central SSA, South Asia, Western SSA, and Central Asia. AAA

  9. Students' estimates of the prevalence of drug use: evidence for a false consensus effect.

    PubMed

    Wolfson, S

    2000-09-01

    False consensus, or the tendency to overestimate the extent to which others share one's own attitudes and behaviors, was investigated in a study of 348 university students classified as non-drug users, cannabis-only users, or amphetamine + cannabis users. Participants estimated the prevalence of cannabis and amphetamine use among students. Cannabis and amphetamine users made significantly higher estimates of cannabis use among students than did nonusers, whereas amphetamine users gave significantly higher estimates of amphetamine use than nonusers and cannabis-only users. Correlations between estimates of use among friends and other students were significantly positive for both drugs. The results suggest that students are motivated to overestimate the commonality of their own position on drug use and that their estimates may also be influenced by selective exposure. PMID:10998955

  10. Comfort in big numbers: Does over-estimation of doping prevalence in others indicate self-involvement?

    PubMed Central

    Petróczi, Andrea; Mazanov, Jason; Nepusz, Tamás; Backhouse, Susan H; Naughton, Declan P

    2008-01-01

    Background The 'False Consensus Effect' (FCE), by which people perceive their own actions as relatively common behaviour, might be exploited to gauge whether a person engages in controversial behaviour, such as performance enhancing drug (PED) use. Hypothesis It is assumed that people's own behaviour, owing to the FCE, affects their estimation of the prevalence of that behaviour. It is further hypothesised that a person's estimate of PED population use is a reliable indicator of the doping behaviour of that person, in lieu of self-reports. Testing the hypothesis Over- or underestimation is calculated from investigating known groups (i.e. users vs. non-users), using a short questionnaire, and a known prevalence rate from official reports or sample evidence. It is proposed that sample evidence from self-reported behaviour should be verified using objective biochemical analyses. In order to find proofs of concept for the existence of false consensus, a pilot study was conducted. Data were collected among competitive UK student-athletes (n = 124) using a web-based anonymous questionnaire. User (n = 9) vs. non-user (n = 76) groups were established using self-reported information on doping use and intention to use PEDs in hypothetical situations. Observed differences in the mean estimation of doping made by the user group exceeded the estimation made by the non-user group (35.11% vs. 15.34% for general doping and 34.25% vs. 26.30% in hypothetical situations, respectively), thus providing preliminary evidence in support of the FCE concept in relation to doping. Implications of the hypothesis The presence of the FCE in estimating doping prevalence or behaviour in others suggests that the FCE based approach may be an avenue for developing an indirect self-report mechanism for PED use behaviour. The method may be successfully adapted to the estimation of prevalence of behaviours where direct self-reports are assumed to be distorted by socially desirable responding. Thus this

  11. Reliability of Nationwide Prevalence Estimates of Dementia: A Critical Appraisal Based on Brazilian Surveys

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background The nationwide dementia prevalence is usually calculated by applying the results of local surveys to countries’ populations. To evaluate the reliability of such estimations in developing countries, we chose Brazil as an example. We carried out a systematic review of dementia surveys, ascertained their risk of bias, and present the best estimate of occurrence of dementia in Brazil. Methods and Findings We carried out an electronic search of PubMed, Latin-American databases, and a Brazilian thesis database for surveys focusing on dementia prevalence in Brazil. The systematic review was registered at PROSPERO (CRD42014008815). Among the 35 studies found, 15 analyzed population-based random samples. However, most of them utilized inadequate criteria for diagnostics. Six studies without these limitations were further analyzed to assess the risk of selection, attrition, outcome and population bias as well as several statistical issues. All the studies presented moderate or high risk of bias in at least two domains due to the following features: high non-response, inaccurate cut-offs, and doubtful accuracy of the examiners. Two studies had limited external validity due to high rates of illiteracy or low income. The three studies with adequate generalizability and the lowest risk of bias presented a prevalence of dementia between 7.1% and 8.3% among subjects aged 65 years and older. However, after adjustment for accuracy of screening, the best available evidence points towards a figure between 15.2% and 16.3%. Conclusions The risk of bias may strongly limit the generalizability of dementia prevalence estimates in developing countries. Extrapolations that have already been made for Brazil and Latin America were based on a prevalence that should have been adjusted for screening accuracy or not used at all due to severe bias. Similar evaluations regarding other developing countries are needed in order to verify the scope of these limitations. PMID:26131563

  12. Interstudy heterogeneity of definitions of diastolic dysfunction severely affects reported prevalence

    PubMed Central

    Selmeryd, Jonas; Henriksen, Egil; Leppert, Jerzy; Hedberg, Pär

    2016-01-01

    Aims The aim of this article is to examine how the European Association of Cardiovascular Imaging (EACVI) and the American Society of Echocardiography (ASE) recommendations on the classification of diastolic dysfunction (DDF) are interpreted in the scientific community and to explore how variations in the DDF definition affect the reported prevalence. Methods and results A systematic review of studies citing the EACVI/ASE consensus document ‘Recommendations for the evaluation of left ventricular diastolic function by echocardiography’ was performed. The definition of DDF used in each study was recorded. Subsequently, several possible interpretations of the EACVI/ASE classification scheme were used to obtain DDF prevalence in a community-based sample (n = 714). In the systematic review, 60 studies were included. In 13 studies, no specification of DDF definition was presented, a one-level classification tree was used in 13, a two-level classification tree in 18, and in the remaining 16 studies, a DDF definition was presented but no grading of DDF was performed. In 17 studies, the DDF definition relied solely on early diastolic tissue velocity and/or left atrial size. In eight of these studies, a single parameter was used, in two studies the logical operator AND was used to combine two or more parameters, and the remaining seven studies used the logical operator OR. The resulting prevalence of DDF in the community-based sample varied from 12 to 84%, depending on the DDF definition used. Conclusion A substantial heterogeneity of definitions of DDF was evident among the studies reviewed, and the different definitions had a substantial impact on the reported prevalence of DDF. PMID:26374880

  13. Estimating the Prevalence of Treated Epilepsy Using Administrative Health Data and Its Validity: ESSENCE Study

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Seo-Young; Chung, Soo-Eun; Kim, Dong Wook; Eun, So-Hee; Kang, Hoon Chul; Cho, Yong Won; Yi, Sang Do; Kim, Heung Dong

    2016-01-01

    Background and Purpose Few of the epidemiologic studies of epilepsy have utilized well-validated nationwide databases. We estimated the nationwide prevalence of treated epilepsy based on a comprehensive medical payment database along with diagnostic validation. Methods We collected data on patients prescribed of antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment service, which covers the entire population of Korea. To assess the diagnostic validity, a medical records survey was conducted involving 6,774 patients prescribed AEDs from 43 institutions based on regional clusters and referral levels across the country. The prevalence of treated epilepsy was estimated by projecting the diagnostic validity on the number of patients prescribed AEDs. Results The mean positive predictive value (PPV) for epilepsy was 0.810 for those prescribed AEDs with diagnostic codes that indicate epilepsy or seizure (Diagnosis-E), while it was 0.066 for those without Diagnosis-E. The PPV tended to decrease with age in both groups, with lower values seen in females. The prevalence was 3.84 per 1,000, and it was higher among males, children, and the elderly. Conclusions The prevalence of epilepsy in Korea was comparable to that in other East Asian countries. The diagnostic validity of administrative health data varies depending on the method of case ascertainment, age, and sex. The prescriptions of AEDs even without relevant diagnostic codes should be considered as a tracer for epilepsy.

  14. The impact of proposed changes to ICD-11 on estimates of PTSD prevalence and comorbidity.

    PubMed

    Wisco, Blair E; Miller, Mark W; Wolf, Erika J; Kilpatrick, Dean; Resnick, Heidi S; Badour, Christal L; Marx, Brian P; Keane, Terence M; Rosen, Raymond C; Friedman, Matthew J

    2016-06-30

    The World Health Organization's posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) work group has published a proposal for the forthcoming edition of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11) that would yield a very different diagnosis relative to DSM-5. This study examined the impact of the proposed ICD-11 changes on PTSD prevalence relative to the ICD-10 and DSM-5 definitions and also evaluated the extent to which these changes would accomplish the stated aim of reducing the comorbidity associated with PTSD. Diagnostic prevalence estimates were compared using a U.S. national community sample and two U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs clinical samples. The ICD-11 definition yielded prevalence estimates 10-30% lower than DSM-5 and 25% and 50% lower than ICD-10 with no reduction in the prevalence of common comorbidities. Findings suggest that by constraining the diagnosis to a narrower set of symptoms, the proposed ICD-11 criteria set would substantially reduce the number of individuals with the disorder. These findings raise doubt about the extent to which the ICD-11 proposal would achieve the aim of reducing comorbidity associated with PTSD and highlight the public health and policy implications of such a redefinition.

  15. The impact of proposed changes to ICD-11 on estimates of PTSD prevalence and comorbidity.

    PubMed

    Wisco, Blair E; Miller, Mark W; Wolf, Erika J; Kilpatrick, Dean; Resnick, Heidi S; Badour, Christal L; Marx, Brian P; Keane, Terence M; Rosen, Raymond C; Friedman, Matthew J

    2016-06-30

    The World Health Organization's posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) work group has published a proposal for the forthcoming edition of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11) that would yield a very different diagnosis relative to DSM-5. This study examined the impact of the proposed ICD-11 changes on PTSD prevalence relative to the ICD-10 and DSM-5 definitions and also evaluated the extent to which these changes would accomplish the stated aim of reducing the comorbidity associated with PTSD. Diagnostic prevalence estimates were compared using a U.S. national community sample and two U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs clinical samples. The ICD-11 definition yielded prevalence estimates 10-30% lower than DSM-5 and 25% and 50% lower than ICD-10 with no reduction in the prevalence of common comorbidities. Findings suggest that by constraining the diagnosis to a narrower set of symptoms, the proposed ICD-11 criteria set would substantially reduce the number of individuals with the disorder. These findings raise doubt about the extent to which the ICD-11 proposal would achieve the aim of reducing comorbidity associated with PTSD and highlight the public health and policy implications of such a redefinition. PMID:27124207

  16. Evaluation of geospatial methods to generate subnational HIV prevalence estimates for local level planning

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Objective: There is evidence of substantial subnational variation in the HIV epidemic. However, robust spatial HIV data are often only available at high levels of geographic aggregation and not at the finer resolution needed for decision making. Therefore, spatial analysis methods that leverage available data to provide local estimates of HIV prevalence may be useful. Such methods exist but have not been formally compared when applied to HIV. Design/methods: Six candidate methods – including those used by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS to generate maps and a Bayesian geostatistical approach applied to other diseases – were used to generate maps and subnational estimates of HIV prevalence across three countries using cluster level data from household surveys. Two approaches were used to assess the accuracy of predictions: internal validation, whereby a proportion of input data is held back (test dataset) to challenge predictions; and comparison with location-specific data from household surveys in earlier years. Results: Each of the methods can generate usefully accurate predictions of prevalence at unsampled locations, with the magnitude of the error in predictions similar across approaches. However, the Bayesian geostatistical approach consistently gave marginally the strongest statistical performance across countries and validation procedures. Conclusions: Available methods may be able to furnish estimates of HIV prevalence at finer spatial scales than the data currently allow. The subnational variation revealed can be integrated into planning to ensure responsiveness to the spatial features of the epidemic. The Bayesian geostatistical approach is a promising strategy for integrating HIV data to generate robust local estimates. PMID:26919737

  17. Validation of model-based estimates (synthetic estimates) of the prevalence of risk factors for coronary heart disease for wards in England.

    PubMed

    Scarborough, Peter; Allender, Steven; Rayner, Mike; Goldacre, Michael

    2009-06-01

    Several sets of model-based estimates (synthetic estimates) of the prevalence of risk factors for coronary heart disease for small areas in England have been developed. These have been used in policy documents to indicate which areas are in need of intervention. In general, these models have not been subjected to validity assessment. This paper describes a validity assessment of 16 sets of synthetic estimates, by comparison of the models with national, regional and local survey-based estimates, and local mortality rate estimates. Model-based estimates of the prevalence of smoking, low fruit and vegetable consumption, obesity, hypertension and raised cholesterol are found to be valid.

  18. Prevalence and allele frequency estimation of bovine leukocyte adhesion deficiency (BLAD) in Holstein-Friesian cattle in Japan.

    PubMed

    Nagahata, H; Miura, T; Tagaki, K; Ohtake, M; Noda, H; Yasuda, T; Nioka, K

    1997-04-01

    Blood samples from 796 Holstein dairy cows in 20 herds from 6 districts in Japan from June 1994 to August 1995 were examined to determine whether they were BLAD-free, BLAD carriers, or BLAD-affected by use of DNA-polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis. The usage of semen of confirmed BLAD-carriers for artificial insemination in the Hokkaido district and two selected dairy farms was examined to estimate the gene frequency of BLAD carriers of sires. BLAD-carrier prevalence in 20 herds (796 cows, over 2.5 years old) ranged from 0 to 23.5%, and the mean BLAD-carrier prevalence was 8.1%. The BLAD-carrier prevalence in 10 herds (363 cows) in which the occurrence of BLAD was not detected by the DNA-PCR test ranged from 0 to 12.5% with a mean of 5.4%. The BLAD-carrier prevalence in 10 herds (433 cows) in which the occurrence of BLAD was confirmed by DNA-PCR analysis ranged from 2.6 to 23.5% with a mean of 10.8%, and these values were significantly (P < 0.05) higher than those of dairy herds in which the occurrence of BLAD was not detected. The age distribution in BLAD carriers in these cows ranged from 2.5 to 11 years. The mean gene frequencies of BLAD among 796 cows from 20 herds and 433 cows from 10 herds in which the occurrence of BLAD was detected were 0.041 and 0.054, respectively. The proportional usage of semen of BLAD carriers for artificial insemination in the Hokkaido district in 1992 was 12.6%, and its gene frequency was 0.058. On two selected farms in which higher BLAD-carrier rates were detected, the prevalences were 35.5% and 25.8%, and their gene frequencies were 0.177 and 0.129, respectively. The occurrence of BLAD-affected in Holstein dairy cattle was estimated to be 0.16-0.31% at birth in Japan without genetic control. PMID:9152929

  19. Thermoregulatory behaviour affects prevalence of chytrid fungal infection in a wild population of Panamanian golden frogs

    PubMed Central

    Richards-Zawacki, Corinne L.

    2010-01-01

    Predicting how climate change will affect disease dynamics requires an understanding of how the environment affects host–pathogen interactions. For amphibians, global declines and extinctions have been linked to a pathogenic chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Using a combination of body temperature measurements and disease assays conducted before and after the arrival of B. dendrobatidis, this study tested the hypothesis that body temperature affects the prevalence of infection in a wild population of Panamanian golden frogs (Atelopus zeteki). The timing of first detection of the fungus was consistent with that of a wave of epidemic infections spreading south and eastward through Central America. During the epidemic, many golden frogs modified their thermoregulatory behaviour, raising body temperatures above their normal set point. Odds of infection decreased with increasing body temperature, demonstrating that even slight environmental or behavioural changes have the potential to affect an individual's vulnerability to infection. The thermal dependency of the relationship between B. dendrobatidis and its amphibian hosts demonstrates how the progression of an epidemic can be influenced by complex interactions between host and pathogen phenotypes and the environments in which they are found. PMID:19864287

  20. Thermoregulatory behaviour affects prevalence of chytrid fungal infection in a wild population of Panamanian golden frogs.

    PubMed

    Richards-Zawacki, Corinne L

    2010-02-22

    Predicting how climate change will affect disease dynamics requires an understanding of how the environment affects host-pathogen interactions. For amphibians, global declines and extinctions have been linked to a pathogenic chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Using a combination of body temperature measurements and disease assays conducted before and after the arrival of B. dendrobatidis, this study tested the hypothesis that body temperature affects the prevalence of infection in a wild population of Panamanian golden frogs (Atelopus zeteki). The timing of first detection of the fungus was consistent with that of a wave of epidemic infections spreading south and eastward through Central America. During the epidemic, many golden frogs modified their thermoregulatory behaviour, raising body temperatures above their normal set point. Odds of infection decreased with increasing body temperature, demonstrating that even slight environmental or behavioural changes have the potential to affect an individual's vulnerability to infection. The thermal dependency of the relationship between B. dendrobatidis and its amphibian hosts demonstrates how the progression of an epidemic can be influenced by complex interactions between host and pathogen phenotypes and the environments in which they are found. PMID:19864287

  1. Estimating the prevalence of obstetric fistula: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Obstetric fistula is a severe condition which has devastating consequences for a woman’s life. The estimation of the burden of fistula at the population level has been impaired by the rarity of diagnosis and the lack of rigorous studies. This study was conducted to determine the prevalence and incidence of fistula in low and middle income countries. Methods Six databases were searched, involving two separate searches: one on fistula specifically and one on broader maternal and reproductive morbidities. Studies including estimates of incidence and prevalence of fistula at the population level were included. We conducted meta-analyses of prevalence of fistula among women of reproductive age and the incidence of fistula among recently pregnant women. Results Nineteen studies were included in this review. The pooled prevalence in population-based studies was 0.29 (95% CI 0.00, 1.07) fistula per 1000 women of reproductive age in all regions. Separated by region we found 1.57 (95% CI 1.16, 2.06) in sub Saharan Africa and South Asia, 1.60 (95% CI 1.16, 2.10) per 1000 women of reproductive age in sub Saharan Africa and 1.20 (95% CI 0.10, 3.54) per 1000 in South Asia. The pooled incidence was 0.09 (95% CI 0.01, 0.25) per 1000 recently pregnant women. Conclusions Our study is the most comprehensive study of the burden of fistula to date. Our findings suggest that the prevalence of fistula is lower than previously reported. The low burden of fistula should not detract from their public health importance, however, given the preventability of the condition, and the devastating consequences of fistula. PMID:24373152

  2. 10-year prevalence of contact allergy in the general population in Denmark estimated through the CE-DUR method.

    PubMed

    Thyssen, Jacob Pontoppidan; Uter, Wolfgang; Schnuch, Axel; Linneberg, Allan; Johansen, Jeanne Duus

    2007-10-01

    The prevalence of contact allergy in the general population has traditionally been investigated through population-based epidemiological studies. A different approach is the combination of clinical epidemiological (CE) data and the World Health Organization-defined drug utilization research (DUR) method. The CE-DUR method was applied in Denmark to estimate the prevalence of contact allergy in the general population and compare it with the prevalence estimates from the Glostrup allergy studies. Contact allergy prevalence estimates ranging from very liberal ('worst case') to conservative ('best case') assumptions were based on patch test reading data in combination with an estimate of the number of persons eligible for patch testing each year based on sales data of the 'standard series'. The estimated 10-year prevalence of contact allergy ranged between 7.3% and 12.9% for adult Danes older than 18 years. The 10-year prevalence of contact allergy measured by CE-DUR was slightly lower than previous prevalence estimates from the Glostrup allergy studies. This could probably be explained by a decrease in nickel allergy. The CE-DUR approach holds the potential of being an efficient and easy monitoring method of contact allergy prevalence.

  3. Factors affecting the estimate of primary production from space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Balch, W. M.; Byrne, C. F.

    1994-01-01

    Remote sensing of primary production in the euphotic zone has been based mostly on visible-band and water-leaving radiance measured with the coastal zone color scanner. There are some robust, simple relationships for calculating integral production based on surface measurements, but they also require knowledge for photoadaptive parameters such as maximum photosynthesis which currently cannot be obtained from spave. A 17,000-station data set is used to show that space-based estimates of maximum photosynthesis could improve predictions of psi, the water column light utiliztion index, which is an important term in many primary productivity models. Temperature is also examined as a factor for predicting hydrographic structure and primary production. A simple model is used to relate temperature and maximum photosynthesis; the model incorporates (1) the positive relationship between maximum photosynthesis and temperature and (2) the strongly negative relationship between temperature and nitrate in the ocean (which directly affects maximum growth rates via nitrogen limitation). Since these two factors relate to carbon and nitrogen, 'balanced carbon/nitrogen assimilation' was calculated using the Redfield ratio, It is expected that the relationship between maximum balanced carbon assimilation versus temperature is concave-down, with the peak dependent on nitrate uptake kinetics, temperature-nitrate relationships,a nd the carbon chlorophyll ration. These predictions were compared with the sea truth data. The minimum turnover time for nitrate was also calculated using this approach. Lastly, sea surface temperature gradients were used to predict the slope of isotherms (a proxy for the slope of isopycnals in many waters). Sea truth data show that at size scales of several hundred kilometers, surface temperature gradients can provide information on the slope of isotherms in the top 200 m of the water column. This is directly relevant to the supply of nutrients into the surface

  4. Factors affecting the estimate of primary production from space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balch, W. M.; Byrne, C. F.

    1994-04-01

    Remote sensing of primary production in the euphotic zone has been based mostly on visible-band water-leaving radiance measured with the coastal zone color scanner. There are some robust, simple relationships for calculating integral production based on surface measurements, but they also require knowledge of photoadaptive parameters such as maximum photosynthesis which currently cannot be obtained from space. A 17,000-station data set is used to show that space-based estimates of maximum photosynthesis could improve predictions of ψ, the water column light utilization index, which is an important term in many primary productivity models. Temperature is also examined as a factor for predicting hydrographic structure and primary production. A simple model is used to relate temperature and maximum photosynthesis; the model incorporates (1) the positive relationship between maximum photosynthesis and temperature and (2) the strongly negative relationship between temperature and nitrate in the ocean (which directly affects maximum growth rates via nitrogen limitation). Since these two factors relate to carbon and nitrogen, "balanced carbon/nitrogen assimilation" was calculated assuming the Redfield ratio. It is expected that the relationship between maximum balanced carbon assimilation versus temperature is concave-down, with the peak dependent on nitrate uptake kinetics, temperature-nitrate relationships, and the carbon/chlorophyll ratio. These predictions were compared with sea truth data. The minimum turnover time for nitrate was also calculated using this approach. Lastly, sea surface temperature gradients were used to predict the slope of isotherms (a proxy for the slope of isopycnals in many waters). Sea truth data show that at size scales of several hundred kilometers, surface temperature gradients can provide information on the slope of isotherms in the top 200 m of the water column. This is directly relevant to the supply of nutrients into the surface mixed

  5. How to estimate the affect of an intense meteor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, G. J.

    In the present age the potential threat to space projects coming from some intense meteor storms has been noticed Meteoroids have not the big size and great mass of the man-made space debris but they have high velocities up to 11-72 km s -1 and energies In addition a tremendous number of meteoroids might be encountered in a short time Moreover the destroy of the meteoroids is extensive In an impact the shock waves can be generated and propagate along colliding bodies compressing and heating both the target and meteoroid-self A plasma cloud may enclose the target and expands into the surrounding vacuum emitting electromagnetic radiation in a wide spectral range Especially the increasing activity of mankind in space for scientific commercial and military purposes has lead to an increase in safety-related problems about the satellites space stations and astronauts The actual destroy has been recorded many times making the data being lost or solar panels being severely damaged even the satellite lost its control and culminated in an early end of the mission Up to date several new techniques for observing meteors and meteor showers have been developed However the initial definition about a meteor storm based on visual observations with a Zenithal Hourly Rate of above one thousand seems insufficient since it only means a storm or burst of meteors in numbers means an eyewitness could have a chance to see a spectacular meteor show How to define the intense activity of a meteor storm how to estimate and predict the affect of

  6. Statistical innovations improve prevalence estimates of nutrient risk populations: applications in São Paulo, Brazil.

    PubMed

    Morimoto, Juliana Masami; Marchioni, Dirce Maria Lobo; Cesar, Chester Luiz Galvão; Fisberg, Regina Mara

    2012-10-01

    The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of inadequate micronutrient intake and excess sodium intake among adults age 19 years and older in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. Twenty-four-hour dietary recall and sociodemographic data were collected from each participant (n=1,663) in a cross-sectional study, Inquiry of Health of São Paulo, of a representative sample of the adult population of the city of São Paulo in 2003 (ISA-2003). The variability in intake was measured through two replications of the 24-hour recall in a subsample of this population in 2007 (ISA-2007). Usual intake was estimated by the PC-SIDE program (version 1.0, 2003, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University), which uses an approach developed by Iowa State University. The prevalence of nutrient inadequacy was calculated using the Estimated Average Requirement cut-point method for vitamins A and C, thiamin, riboflavin, niacin, copper, phosphorus, and selenium. For vitamin D, pantothenic acid, manganese, and sodium, the proportion of individuals with usual intake equal to or more than the Adequate Intake value was calculated. The percentage of individuals with intake equal to more than the Tolerable Upper Intake Level was calculated for sodium. The highest prevalence of inadequacy for males and females, respectively, occurred for vitamin A (67% and 58%), vitamin C (52% and 62%), thiamin (41% and 50%), and riboflavin (29% and 19%). The adjustment for the within-person variation presented lower prevalence of inadequacy due to removal of within-person variability. All adult residents of São Paulo had excess sodium intake, and the rates of nutrient inadequacy were high for certain key micronutrients.

  7. Prevalence of life-threatening complications in pediatric patients affected by intestinal failure.

    PubMed

    Diamanti, A; Basso, M S; Castro, M; Calce, A; Pietrobattista, A; Gambarara, M

    2007-06-01

    Intestinal failure (IF) is defined as the reduction of functional gut mass necessary to maintain health and growth in children. Causes of IF include short bowel syndrome (SBS), neuromuscular intestinal disorders (NID), and severe protracted diarrhea (SPD). If patients require long-term parenteral nutrition (PN); they can now be discharged on home PN (HPN), thus improving their quality of life. Children requiring long-term PN are at high risk of developing life-threatening IF complications that hinder HPN, namely, IF associated liver disease (IFALD), catheter-related infections (CRI), and thrombosis. The goal of our study was to retrospectively evaluate the prevalence of life-threatening complications among IF patients according to the HPN indication. From January 1989 to May 2006, 60 IF patients (41 boys and 19 girls) underwent prolonged HPN. Total program duration was 46,391 days (127 total years, mean 2.1 years per patient). Indications for HPN were SBS in 36 cases, SPD in 19 cases, or NID in 5 cases. In our experience patients affected by SBS displayed a significantly higher prevalence of life-threatening complications than patients with other IF causes. Sixteen (27%) among 60 patients developed IFALD. CRI and thrombosis prevalence were 1.4/1000 central venous catheter (CVC) days and 0.2/1000 CVC days respectively. SBS seemed to lead to life-threatening complications more often than other HPN indications. SBS patients on long-term PN therefore require careful management to identify complications early, and they seem to be the candidates for early referral to small bowel transplantation centers.

  8. Back pain prevalence in US industry and estimates of lost workdays.

    PubMed Central

    Guo, H R; Tanaka, S; Halperin, W E; Cameron, L L

    1999-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Back pain is the most common reason for filing workers' compensation claims and often causes lost workdays. Data from the 1988 National Health Interview Survey were analyzed to identify high-risk industries and to estimate the prevalence of work-related back pain and number of workdays lost. METHODS: Analyses included 30074 respondents who worked during the 12 months before the interview. A case patient was defined as a respondent who had back pain every day for a week or more during that period. RESULTS: The prevalence of lost-workday back pain was 4.6%, and individuals with work-related cases lost 101.8 million workdays owing to back pain. Male and female case patients lost about the same number of workdays. Industries in high-risk categories were also identified for future research and intervention, including those seldom studied. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides statistically reliable national estimates of the prevalence of back pain among workers and the enormous effect of this condition on American industry in terms of lost workdays. PMID:10394311

  9. Estimated prevalence of compulsive buying in Germany and its association with sociodemographic characteristics and depressive symptoms.

    PubMed

    Mueller, Astrid; Mitchell, James E; Crosby, Ross D; Gefeller, Olaf; Faber, Ronald J; Martin, Alexandra; Bleich, Stefan; Glaesmer, Heide; Exner, Cornelia; de Zwaan, Martina

    2010-12-30

    The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of compulsive buying and its association with sociodemographic characteristics and depressive symptoms in a nationally representative sample of the German population using the validated German version of the Compulsive Buying Scale (CBS; Faber and O'Guinn, 1992) in order to have a direct comparison with U.S. findings. The point prevalence of compulsive buying in the weighted representative sample (N=2,350) was estimated to be 6.9%. This was somewhat higher than the percentage in the American sample assessed in 2004 (5.8%). No significant difference was found between women and men (6.9% and 6.8%, respectively). Age was inversely related to the prevalence of compulsive buying. Individuals with compulsive buying reported more depressive symptoms assessed via the German version of the Brief Patient Health Questionnaire Mood Scale (PHQ-9). Further research on this topic is needed to establish a clearer delineation of when excessive buying is clinically significant and should be treated and how it could be prevented.

  10. Winter temperature affects the prevalence of ticks in an Arctic seabird.

    PubMed

    Descamps, Sébastien

    2013-01-01

    The Arctic is rapidly warming and host-parasite relationships may be modified by such environmental changes. Here, I showed that the average winter temperature in Svalbard, Arctic Norway, explained almost 90% of the average prevalence of ticks in an Arctic seabird, the Brünnich's guillemot Uria lomvia. An increase of 1°C in the average winter temperature at the nesting colony site was associated with a 5% increase in the number of birds infected by these ectoparasites in the subsequent breeding season. Guillemots were generally infested by only a few ticks (≤5) and I found no direct effect of tick presence on their body condition and breeding success. However, the strong effect of average winter temperature described here clearly indicates that tick-seabird relationships in the Arctic may be strongly affected by ongoing climate warming.

  11. Variable abattoir conditions affect Salmonella enterica prevalence and meat quality in swine and pork.

    PubMed

    Hurd, H S; Gailey, J K; McKean, J D; Griffith, R W

    2005-01-01

    Research suggests that abattoir holding pens pose significant Salmonella enterica risk to swine immediately preharvest. The goal of this study was to evaluate those factors related to holding that increased the prevalence of S. enterica in swine at slaughter. To accomplish this goal, we focused on holding time and flooring. Our objectives were to (1) compare Salmonella enterica prevalence among pigs held for short (15-45 min) versus long (up to 4 h) periods before slaughter; and (2) determine the impact of flooring (slatted vs. concrete) as it relates to the prevalence of S. enterica. The study consisted of seven repetitions at a large volume (11,000 head/day) Midwest abattoir. Each repetition consisted of one truck load of pigs (n = 170) sorted into one of three groups: (1) animals held for a short time (15-45 min) on solid floors (short-hold); (2) animals held for 4 +/- 0.5 h on slatted floors; and (3) animals held for 4 +/- 0.5 h on solid concrete floors. At slaughter, samples were collected from 30 pigs in each group. Cecal contents (20 mL), feces (20 g), and the ileocecal lymph node were cultured for S. enterica. Additionally, the effect of holding time on meat quality parameters (loin pH at 35 min and 6 h, color, drip loss) was evaluated for the first four replicates. The proportion of S. enterica-positive samples was highest (p < 0.05) in the cecum of pigs held on solid concrete floors (72.4%), and slightly less for pigs held on slatted floors (63.3%). Animals held for less than 45 min before slaughter demonstrated the lowest proportion of S. enterica-positive samples (52.9%). The pig prevalence, as measured by any one of the three samples being positive, was significantly different (p < 0.05) between animals held on solid floors (81%) and those animals held for 45 min or less before slaughter (69%). Meat quality, as measured by multiple parameters, was adversely affected by lack of a rest period. The mean 24-h pH was significantly lower for the short

  12. How irrigation affects soil erosion estimates of RUSLE2

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    RUSLE2 is a robust and computationally efficient conservation planning tool that estimates soil, climate, and land management effects on sheet and rill erosion and sediment delivery from hillslopes, and also estimates the size distribution and clay enrichment of sediment delivered to the channel sys...

  13. National Malaria Prevalence in Cambodia: Microscopy Versus Polymerase Chain Reaction Estimates.

    PubMed

    Lek, Dysoley; Popovici, Jean; Ariey, Frederic; Vinjamuri, Seshu Babu; Meek, Sylvia; Bruce, Jan; Taylor, Walter R J; Socheat, Duong; Menard, Didier; Rogers, William O

    2016-09-01

    Accurate information regarding malaria prevalence at national level is required to design and assess malaria control/elimination efforts. Although many comparisons of microscopy and polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based methods have been conducted, there is little published literature covering such comparisons in southeast Asia especially at the national level. Both microscopic examination and PCR detection were performed on blood films and dried blood spots samples collected from 8,067 individuals enrolled in a nationwide, stratified, multistage, cluster sampling malaria prevalence survey conducted in Cambodia in 2007. The overall malaria prevalence and prevalence rates of Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax, and Plasmodium malariae infections estimated by microscopy (N = 8,067) were 2.74% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.39-3.12%), 1.81% (95% CI: 1.53-2.13%), 1.14% (95% CI: 0.92-1.40%), and 0.01% (95% CI: 0.003-0.07%), respectively. The overall malaria prevalence based on PCR detection (N = 7,718) was almost 2.5-fold higher (6.31%, 95% CI: 5.76-6.89%, P < 0.00001). This difference was significantly more pronounced for P. falciparum (4.40%, 95% CI: 3.95-4.90%, P < 0.00001) compared with P. vivax (1.89%, 95% CI: 1.60-2.22%, P < 0.001) and P. malariae infections (0.22%, 95% CI: 0.13-0.35%, P < 0.0001). The significant proportion of microscopy-negative but PCR-positive individuals (289/7,491, 3.85%) suggest microscopic examination frequently underestimated malaria infections and that active case detection based on microscopy may miss a significant reservoir of infection, especially in low-transmission settings. PMID:27402511

  14. Usher syndrome: definition and estimate of prevalence from two high-risk populations.

    PubMed

    Boughman, J A; Vernon, M; Shaver, K A

    1983-01-01

    The Usher Syndrome (US) refers to the combined neurosensory deficits of profound hearing impairment and retinitis pigmentosa. We have obtained information on 600 cases of deaf-blindness from the registry of the Helen Keller National Center for Deaf-Blind Youths and Adults (HKNC). Of these, 54% met the diagnostic criteria of US, although only 23.8% were so diagnosed. More extensive analysis of 189 Usher clients from HKNC showed an excess of males, some variability in audiograms, and wide ophthalmologic variation. Genetic analysis of 113 sibships showed a segregation ratio consistent with recessive inheritance. The Acadian population of Louisiana has a high frequency of US which contributes significantly to the deaf population of the state. Among 48 cases from the Louisiana School for the Deaf, there was an excess of males, more variability in audiograms than expected, and an increased segregation ratio in the 26 informative sibships. Estimates of prevalence obtained using registry data and statistics from Louisiana clearly suggest that the previous estimate of 2.4 per 100,000 is too low for the United States. Recognizing problems with ascertainment, our prevalence estimate of 4.4 per 100,000 is still considered quite conservative.

  15. Estimating the number of helminthic infections in the Republic of Cameroon from data on infection prevalence in schoolchildren.

    PubMed Central

    Brooker, S.; Donnelly, C. A.; Guyatt, H. L.

    2000-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: The prevalence of infection with helminths is markedly dependent on age, yet estimates of the total number of infections are typically based on data only from school-aged children. Such estimates, although useful for advocacy, provide inadequate information for planning control programmes and for quantifying the burden of disease. Using readily available data on the prevalence of infection in schoolchildren, the relation between the prevalence of infection in school-aged children and prevalence in the wider community can be adequately described using species-specific models. This paper explores the reliability of this approach to predict the prevalence infection in the community and provides a model for estimating the total number of people infected in the Republic of Cameroon. METHODS: Using data on the prevalence of helminthic infection in school-aged children in Cameroon, the prevalence of infection in pre-school children and adults was estimated from species-specific linear and logistic regression models developed previously. The model predictions were then used to estimate the number of people infected in each district in each age group in Cameroon. RESULTS: For Cameroon, if only the prevalence of infection in schoolchildren is used, the number of people infected with each helminthic species will be overestimated by up to 32% when compared with the estimates provided by the species-specific models. The calculation of confidence intervals supports the statistical reliability of the model since a narrow range of parameter estimates is evident. Furthermore, this work suggests that estimation of national prevalence of infection and the number infected will be enhanced if data are stratified by age; this model represents a useful planning tool for obtaining more accurate estimates. Estimates based on data aggregated from three geographical levels (district, regional, and national) show that summarizing prevalence data at the national level will result

  16. Prevalence Estimation and Validation of New Instruments in Psychiatric Research: An Application of Latent Class Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pence, Brian Wells; Miller, William C.; Gaynes, Bradley N.

    2009-01-01

    Prevalence and validation studies rely on imperfect reference standard (RS) diagnostic instruments that can bias prevalence and test characteristic estimates. The authors illustrate 2 methods to account for RS misclassification. Latent class analysis (LCA) combines information from multiple imperfect measures of an unmeasurable latent condition to…

  17. [Estimation of spur dike-affected fish habitat area].

    PubMed

    Ray-Shyan, Wu; Yan-Ru, Chen; Yi-Liang, Ge

    2012-04-01

    Based on the HEC-RAS and River 2D modes, and taking 5% change rate of weighted usable area (WUA) as the threshold to define the spur dike- affected area of target fish species Acrossocheilus paradoxus in Fazi River in Taiwan, this paper studied the affected area of the fish habitat by spur dike, and, in combining with the references about the installations of spur dikes in Taiwan in recent 10 years, analyzed the relative importance of related affecting factors such as dike height, dike length (water block rate), average slope gradient of river way, single or double spur dike, and flow discharge. In spite of the length of the dike, the affected area in downstream was farther, and was about 2-6 times as large as that in upstream. The ratio of the affected area in downstream / upstream decreased with increasing slope gradient, but increased with increasing dike length and flow discharge. When the discharge was approximate to 10 years return periods, the ratio of the affected area would be close to a constant of 2. Building double spur dike would produce a better WUA than building single spur dike.

  18. How Does Calibration Timing and Seasonality Affect Item Parameter Estimates?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wyse, Adam E.; Babcock, Ben

    2016-01-01

    Continuously administered examination programs, particularly credentialing programs that require graduation from educational programs, often experience seasonality where distributions of examine ability may differ over time. Such seasonality may affect the quality of important statistical processes, such as item response theory (IRT) item…

  19. What are the odds? How demographic similarity affects the prevalence of perceived employment discrimination.

    PubMed

    Avery, Derek R; McKay, Patrick F; Wilson, David C

    2008-03-01

    Because research is needed to identify the conditions that facilitate or impede the prevalence of perceived workplace discrimination, the authors examined the effects of demographics and demographic similarity on the prevalence of sex- and race/ethnicity-based perceived workplace discrimination. Results from a national survey of 763 full-time, United States employees show perceived sex-based discrimination at work was more prevalent among female than male employees, and perceived race-based discrimination at work was more prevalent among Black and Hispanic than White employees. Additionally, perceived racial/ethnic discrimination was less prevalent among those with same-race/ethnicity supervisors. The effect of employee-coworker sex similarity on perceived sex discrimination was significant only for women, and the effects of supervisor-subordinate racial similarity on the prevalence of perceived racial discrimination varied between Black and White respondents, depending on employee-residential-community racial similarity. PMID:18361629

  20. Adjusting HIV prevalence estimates for non-participation: an application to demographic surveillance

    PubMed Central

    McGovern, Mark E.; Marra, Giampiero; Radice, Rosalba; Canning, David; Newell, Marie-Louise; Bärnighausen, Till

    2015-01-01

    Introduction HIV testing is a cornerstone of efforts to combat the HIV epidemic, and testing conducted as part of surveillance provides invaluable data on the spread of infection and the effectiveness of campaigns to reduce the transmission of HIV. However, participation in HIV testing can be low, and if respondents systematically select not to be tested because they know or suspect they are HIV positive (and fear disclosure), standard approaches to deal with missing data will fail to remove selection bias. We implemented Heckman-type selection models, which can be used to adjust for missing data that are not missing at random, and established the extent of selection bias in a population-based HIV survey in an HIV hyperendemic community in rural South Africa. Methods We used data from a population-based HIV survey carried out in 2009 in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. In this survey, 5565 women (35%) and 2567 men (27%) provided blood for an HIV test. We accounted for missing data using interviewer identity as a selection variable which predicted consent to HIV testing but was unlikely to be independently associated with HIV status. Our approach involved using this selection variable to examine the HIV status of residents who would ordinarily refuse to test, except that they were allocated a persuasive interviewer. Our copula model allows for flexibility when modelling the dependence structure between HIV survey participation and HIV status. Results For women, our selection model generated an HIV prevalence estimate of 33% (95% CI 27–40) for all people eligible to consent to HIV testing in the survey. This estimate is higher than the estimate of 24% generated when only information from respondents who participated in testing is used in the analysis, and the estimate of 27% when imputation analysis is used to predict missing data on HIV status. For men, we found an HIV prevalence of 25% (95% CI 15–35) using the selection model, compared to 16% among those who

  1. Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Sero-Prevalence Surveys in Multiple Countries

    PubMed Central

    Imai, Natsuko; Dorigatti, Ilaria; Cauchemez, Simon; Ferguson, Neil M.

    2015-01-01

    Background Estimates of dengue transmission intensity remain ambiguous. Since the majority of infections are asymptomatic, surveillance systems substantially underestimate true rates of infection. With advances in the development of novel control measures, obtaining robust estimates of average dengue transmission intensity is key for assessing both the burden of disease from dengue and the likely impact of interventions. Methodology/Principal Findings The force of infection (λ) and corresponding basic reproduction numbers (R0) for dengue were estimated from non-serotype (IgG) and serotype-specific (PRNT) age-stratified seroprevalence surveys identified from the literature. The majority of R0 estimates ranged from 1–4. Assuming that two heterologous infections result in complete immunity produced up to two-fold higher estimates of R0 than when tertiary and quaternary infections were included. λ estimated from IgG data were comparable to the sum of serotype-specific forces of infection derived from PRNT data, particularly when inter-serotype interactions were allowed for. Conclusions/Significance Our analysis highlights the highly heterogeneous nature of dengue transmission. How underlying assumptions about serotype interactions and immunity affect the relationship between the force of infection and R0 will have implications for control planning. While PRNT data provides the maximum information, our study shows that even the much cheaper ELISA-based assays would provide comparable baseline estimates of overall transmission intensity which will be an important consideration in resource-constrained settings. PMID:25881272

  2. Estimating Prevalence of Overweight or Obese Children and Adolescents in Small Geographic Areas Using Publicly Available Data

    PubMed Central

    Davila-Payan, Carlo; DeGuzman, Michael; Johnson, Kevin; Serban, Nicoleta

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Interventions for pediatric obesity can be geographically targeted if high-risk populations can be identified. We developed an approach to estimate the percentage of overweight or obese children aged 2 to 17 years in small geographic areas using publicly available data. We piloted our approach for Georgia. Methods We created a logistic regression model to estimate the individual probability of high body mass index (BMI), given data on the characteristics of the survey participants. We combined the regression model with a simulation to sample subpopulations and obtain prevalence estimates. The models used information from the 2001–2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, the 2010 Census, and the 2010 American Community Survey. We validated our results by comparing 1) estimates for adults in Georgia produced by using our approach with estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and 2) estimates for children in Arkansas produced by using our approach with school examination data. We generated prevalence estimates for census tracts in Georgia and prioritized areas for interventions. Results In DeKalb County, the mean prevalence among census tracts varied from 27% to 40%. For adults, the median difference between our estimates and CDC estimates was 1.3 percentage points; for Arkansas children, the median difference between our estimates and examination-based estimates data was 1.7 percentage points. Conclusion Prevalence estimates for census tracts can be different from estimates for the county, so small-area estimates are crucial for designing effective interventions. Our approach validates well against external data, and it can be a relevant aid for planning local interventions for children. PMID:25764138

  3. Estimating the prevalence of multiple diseases from two-stage hierarchical pooling.

    PubMed

    Warasi, Md S; Tebbs, Joshua M; McMahan, Christopher S; Bilder, Christopher R

    2016-09-20

    Testing protocols in large-scale sexually transmitted disease screening applications often involve pooling biospecimens (e.g., blood, urine, and swabs) to lower costs and to increase the number of individuals who can be tested. With the recent development of assays that detect multiple diseases, it is now common to test biospecimen pools for multiple infections simultaneously. Recent work has developed an expectation-maximization algorithm to estimate the prevalence of two infections using a two-stage, Dorfman-type testing algorithm motivated by current screening practices for chlamydia and gonorrhea in the USA. In this article, we have the same goal but instead take a more flexible Bayesian approach. Doing so allows us to incorporate information about assay uncertainty during the testing process, which involves testing both pools and individuals, and also to update information as individuals are tested. Overall, our approach provides reliable inference for disease probabilities and accurately estimates assay sensitivity and specificity even when little or no information is provided in the prior distributions. We illustrate the performance of our estimation methods using simulation and by applying them to chlamydia and gonorrhea data collected in Nebraska. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:27090057

  4. Preparation for horizontal or vertical dimensions affects the right-left prevalence effect.

    PubMed

    Nishimura, Akio; Yokosawa, Kazuhiko

    2007-10-01

    When stimulus and response simultaneously vary in both horizontal and vertical dimensions, the stimulus-response compatibility effect is often larger for the horizontal dimension. We investigated the role of preparation for each dimension in this right-left prevalence. In Experiment 1, tasks based on horizontal and vertical dimensions were mixed in random order, and the relevant dimension in each trial was cued with a variable cue-target stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA). A right-left prevalence effect was observed only when participants prepared for the upcoming task. Experiment 2 replicated the absence of the prevalence effect for the simultaneous presentation of cue and target using a fixed SOA of 0 msec. In Experiment 3, the right-left prevalence emerged with a 0-msec SOA when participants prepared for e achdimension basedon its frequency. These resultssuggest that participants' internal set can be greater for the horizontal dimension, leading to the right-left prevalence effect.

  5. Mobile teledermatology is a valid method to estimate prevalence of melanocytic naevi in children.

    PubMed

    Karlsson, Maria A; Lindelöf, Bernt; Wahlgren, Carl-Fredrik; Wiklund, Kerstin; Rodvall, Ylva

    2015-03-01

    The prevalence of melanocytic naevi in children correlates with sun exposure and may serve as an objective population risk indicator of future melanoma incidence. The aim was to investigate if mobile teledermatology could offer a valid methodology compared with standard manual, face-to-face counting of naevi on the back of children. Ninety-seven children aged 7-16 years were enrolled. One dermatologist performed manual naevi counting and imaging of the child's back using an iPhone 4S comprising a safe-coded mobile application. Two other dermatologists independently counted naevi from the images. Cohen's weighted kappa (κw) coefficient demonstrated substantial agreement for both dermatologists: κw = 0.69 (0.57-0.81 [95% confidence intervals]) and κw = 0.78 (0.70-0.86), compared with the manual assessment. Inter-rater reliability was also substantial (κw = 0.80 [0.73-0.87]). Use of mobile teledermatology proved valid for estimating naevi prevalence on the back and could provide a more feasible methodology following trends in sun exposure in children. PMID:25138480

  6. Systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the birth prevalence of five inherited metabolic diseases.

    PubMed

    Moorthie, Sowmiya; Cameron, Louise; Sagoo, Gurdeep S; Bonham, Jim R; Burton, Hilary

    2014-11-01

    Many newborn screening programmes now use tandem mass spectrometry in order to screen for a variety of diseases. However, countries have embraced this technology with a differing pace of change and for different conditions. This has been facilitated by the ability of this diagnostic method to limit analysis to specific metabolites of interest, enabling targeted screening for particular conditions. MS/MS was introduced in 2009 in England to implement newborn bloodspot screening for medium chain acyl-CoA dehydrogenase deficiency (MCADD) raising the possibility of screening for other inherited metabolic disorders. Recently, a pilot screening programme was conducted in order to evaluate the health and economic consequences of screening for five additional inherited metabolic disorders in England. As part of this study we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the birth prevalence of these conditions: maple syrup urine disease, homocystinuria (pyridoxine unresponsive), glutaric aciduria type I, isovaleric acidaemia and long-chain 3-hydroxyacyl-CoA dehydrogenase deficiency including trifunctional protein deficiency. We identified a total of 99 studies that were able to provide information on the prevalence of one or more of the disorders. The vast majority of studies were of screening programmes with some reporting on clinically detected cases. PMID:25022222

  7. Problematic video game use: estimated prevalence and associations with mental and physical health.

    PubMed

    Mentzoni, Rune Aune; Brunborg, Geir Scott; Molde, Helge; Myrseth, Helga; Skouverøe, Knut Joachim Mår; Hetland, Jørn; Pallesen, Ståle

    2011-10-01

    A nationwide survey was conducted to investigate the prevalence of video game addiction and problematic video game use and their association with physical and mental health. An initial sample comprising 2,500 individuals was randomly selected from the Norwegian National Registry. A total of 816 (34.0 percent) individuals completed and returned the questionnaire. The majority (56.3 percent) of respondents used video games on a regular basis. The prevalence of video game addiction was estimated to be 0.6 percent, with problematic use of video games reported by 4.1 percent of the sample. Gender (male) and age group (young) were strong predictors for problematic use of video games. A higher proportion of high frequency compared with low frequency players preferred massively multiplayer online role-playing games, although the majority of high frequency players preferred other game types. Problematic use of video games was associated with lower scores on life satisfaction and with elevated levels of anxiety and depression. Video game use was not associated with reported amount of physical exercise.

  8. Comparison of modeled sampling strategies for estimation of dairy herd lameness prevalence and cow-level variables associated with lameness.

    PubMed

    Hoffman, A C; Moore, D A; Wenz, J R; Vanegas, J

    2013-09-01

    Monitoring herd lameness prevalence has utility for dairy producers and veterinarians in their efforts to reduce lameness, for animal welfare assessment programs, and for researchers. Locomotion scoring is a method used to quantify lameness and calculate prevalence. Because of the time necessary to locomotion score each cow in large dairy herds, a sampling strategy to determine herd lameness prevalence that allows scoring of fewer cows would be useful. Such a sampling strategy must be validated for accuracy compared with the lameness prevalence when all cows in a herd are locomotion scored. The purpose of this study was to assess 3 previously suggested methods of estimating lameness prevalence by strategic sampling of dairy herds. Sampling strategies tested included (1) sampling a calculated number of cows in the middle third of the milking parlor exit order for each pen, (2) sampling a calculated number of cows weighted across pens and distributed evenly within each pen, and (3) sampling all cows in the high production, low production, and hospital pens. Lactating cows on 5 dairy farms in Washington and Oregon (n=4,422) were locomotion scored using a 5-point scale to determine herd-level lameness prevalence (percentage with locomotion score ≥3). Milking parlor exit order, order in headlocks at the feed bunk within each pen, and breed were recorded for each cow. The number of days in lactation, milk production, and parity were collected from farm computer records. Pen grouping strategy for each farm was obtained by interview with farm management. Sampling strategies were modeled using the locomotion score data set for each herd. Estimates of lameness prevalence obtained from the milking parlor exit order sample and the sample distributed across pens were within 5 percentage points of the whole herd prevalence. The third strategy estimated the lameness prevalence within 5 percentage points on 4 farms, but overestimated prevalence on 1 farm. Pen-level prevalence

  9. Economic Approaches to Estimating Benefits of Regulations Affecting Addictive Goods.

    PubMed

    Cutler, David M; Jessup, Amber I; Kenkel, Donald S; Starr, Martha A

    2016-05-01

    The question of how to evaluate lost consumer surplus in benefit-cost analyses has been contentious. There are clear health benefits of regulations that curb consumption of goods with health risks, such as tobacco products and foods high in fats, calories, sugar, and sodium. Yet, if regulations cause consumers to give up goods they like, the health benefits they experience may be offset by some utility loss, which benefit-cost analyses of regulations need to take into account. This paper lays out the complications of measuring benefits of regulations aiming to curb consumption of addictive and habitual goods, rooted in the fact that consumers' observed demand for such goods may not be in line with their true preferences. Focusing on the important case of tobacco products, the paper describes four possible approaches for estimating benefits when consumers' preferences may not be aligned with their behavior, and identifies one as having the best feasibility for use in applied benefit-cost analyses in the near term.

  10. [Prevalence of neural tube defects and estimation of cases averted in the post-fortification period in Argentina].

    PubMed

    Bidondo, María P; Liascovich, Rosa; Barbero, Pablo; Groisman, Boris

    2015-12-01

    Periconceptional intake of folic acid has demonstrated to be effective to reduce the frequency of neural tube defects, and food fortification has been one of the strategies implemented to increase it. An update is herein presented on the reduced prevalence of neural tube defect cases in the post-fortification period in Argentina and an estimation of cases averted in the 2005-2013 period as a result of this intervention. When comparing the prevalence observed in the post-fortification period to that reported in the pre-fortification period, anencephaly and encephalocele decreased by 66%, and spina bifida, by 47%, which were significant reductions. The estimated number of cases averted was higher for anencephaly, followed by spina bifida; encephalocele showed the lowest number of cases averted given that the prevalence of this defect was smaller. The decrease observed in the prevalence supports findings from previous studies on the impact of fortification. PMID:26593794

  11. A Bayesian approach to estimate the prevalence of low height-for-age from the prevalence of low weight-for-age.

    PubMed

    Reichenheim, M E; Best, N G

    2000-01-01

    Victora et al. (1998) proposed the use of low weight-for-age prevalence to estimate the prevalence of height-for-age deficit in Brazilian children. This procedure was justified by the need to simplify methods used in the context of community health programs. From the same perspective, the present article broadens this proposal by using a Bayesian approach (based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods) to deal with the imprecision resulting from Victora et al.'s model. In order to avoid invalid estimated prevalence values which can occur with the original linear model, truncation or a logit transformation of the prevalences are suggested. The Bayesian approach is illustrated using a community study as an example. Imprecision arising from methodological complexities in the community study design, such as multi-stage sampling and clustering, is easily handled within the Bayesian framework by introducing a hierarchical or multilevel model structure. Since growth deficit was also evaluated in the community study, the article may also serve to validate the procedure proposed by Victora et al.

  12. Estimates of current and future incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation in the U.S. adult population.

    PubMed

    Colilla, Susan; Crow, Ann; Petkun, William; Singer, Daniel E; Simon, Teresa; Liu, Xianchen

    2013-10-15

    Estimates and projections of diagnosed incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the United States have been highly inconsistent across published studies. Although it is generally acknowledged that AF incidence and prevalence are increasing due to growing numbers of older people in the U.S. population, estimates of the rate of expected growth have varied widely. Reasons for these variations include differences in study design, covered time period, birth cohort, and temporal effects, as well as improvements in AF diagnosis due to increased use of diagnostic tools and health care awareness. The objective of this study was to estimate and project the incidence and prevalence of diagnosed AF in the United States out to 2030. A large health insurance claims database for the years 2001 to 2008, representing a geographically diverse 5% of the U.S. population, was used in this study. The trend and growth rate in AF incidence and prevalence was projected by a dynamic age-period cohort simulation progression model that included all diagnosed AF cases in future prevalence projections regardless of follow-up treatment, as well as those cases expected to be chronic in nature. Results from the model showed that AF incidence will double, from 1.2 million cases in 2010 to 2.6 million cases in 2030. Given this increase in incidence, AF prevalence is projected to increase from 5.2 million in 2010 to 12.1 million cases in 2030. The effect of uncertainty in model parameters was explored in deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Variability in future trends in AF incidence and recurrence rates has the greatest impact on the projected estimates of chronic AF prevalence. It can be concluded that both incidence and prevalence of AF are likely to rise from 2010 to 2030, but there exists a wide range of uncertainty around the magnitude of future trends. PMID:23831166

  13. Early Childhood Developmental Status in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: National, Regional, and Global Prevalence Estimates Using Predictive Modeling

    PubMed Central

    McCoy, Dana Charles; Danaei, Goodarz; Black, Maureen M.; Sudfeld, Christopher R.; Fawzi, Wafaie; Fink, Günther

    2016-01-01

    Background The development of cognitive and socioemotional skills early in life influences later health and well-being. Existing estimates of unmet developmental potential in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are based on either measures of physical growth or proxy measures such as poverty. In this paper we aim to directly estimate the number of children in LMICs who would be reported by their caregivers to show low cognitive and/or socioemotional development. Methods and Findings The present paper uses Early Childhood Development Index (ECDI) data collected between 2005 and 2015 from 99,222 3- and 4-y-old children living in 35 LMICs as part of the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) programs. First, we estimate the prevalence of low cognitive and/or socioemotional ECDI scores within our MICS/DHS sample. Next, we test a series of ordinary least squares regression models predicting low ECDI scores across our MICS/DHS sample countries based on country-level data from the Human Development Index (HDI) and the Nutrition Impact Model Study. We use cross-validation to select the model with the best predictive validity. We then apply this model to all LMICs to generate country-level estimates of the prevalence of low ECDI scores globally, as well as confidence intervals around these estimates. In the pooled MICS and DHS sample, 14.6% of children had low ECDI scores in the cognitive domain, 26.2% had low socioemotional scores, and 36.8% performed poorly in either or both domains. Country-level prevalence of low cognitive and/or socioemotional scores on the ECDI was best represented by a model using the HDI as a predictor. Applying this model to all LMICs, we estimate that 80.8 million children ages 3 and 4 y (95% CI 48.1 million, 113.6 million) in LMICs experienced low cognitive and/or socioemotional development in 2010, with the largest number of affected children in sub-Saharan Africa (29.4.1 million; 43.8% of children

  14. Estimates of prevalence and risk associated with inattention and distraction based upon in situ naturalistic data.

    PubMed

    Dingus, Thomas A

    2014-01-01

    By using in situ naturalistic driving data, estimates of prevalence and risk can be made regarding driver populations' secondary task distractions and crash rates. Through metadata analysis, three populations of drivers (i.e., adult light vehicle, teenaged light vehicle, and adult heavy vehicle) were compared regarding frequency of secondary task behavior and the associated risk for safety-critical incidents. Relative risk estimates provide insight into the risk associated with engaging in a single task. When such risk is considered in combination with frequency of use, it sheds additional light on those secondary tasks that create the greatest overall risk to driving safety. The results show that secondary tasks involving manual typing, texting, dialing, reaching for an object, or reading are dangerous for all three populations. Additionally, novice teen drivers have difficulty in several tasks that the other two populations do not, including eating and external distractions. Truck drivers also perform a number of risky "mobile office" types of tasks, including writing, not seen in the other populations. Implications are described for policy makers and designers of in-vehicle and nomadic, portable systems. PMID:24776227

  15. Estimating the Smoking Ban Effects on Smoking Prevalence, Quitting and Cigarette Consumption in a Population Study of Apprentices in Italy

    PubMed Central

    Pieroni, Luca; Muzi, Giacomo; Quercia, Augusto; Lanari, Donatella; Rundo, Carmen; Minelli, Liliana; Salmasi, Luca; dell’Omo, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: We evaluated the effects of the Italian 2005 smoking ban in public places on the prevalence of smoking, quitting and cigarette consumption of young workers. Data and Methods: The dataset was obtained from non-computerized registers of medical examinations for a population of workers with apprenticeship contracts residing in the province of Viterbo, Italy, in the period 1996–2007. To estimate the effects of the ban, a segmented regression approach was used, exploiting the discontinuity introduced by the application of the law on apprentices’ smoking behavior. Results: It is estimated that the Italian smoking ban generally had no effect on smoking prevalence, quitting ratio, or cigarette consumption of apprentices. However, when the estimates were applied to subpopulations, significant effects were found: −1% in smoking prevalence, +2% in quitting, and −3% in smoking intensity of apprentices with at least a diploma. PMID:26287220

  16. Estimating the Prevalence of Opioid Diversion by “Doctor Shoppers” in the United States

    PubMed Central

    McDonald, Douglas C.; Carlson, Kenneth E.

    2013-01-01

    Background Abuse of prescription opioid analgesics is a serious threat to public health, resulting in rising numbers of overdose deaths and admissions to emergency departments and treatment facilities. Absent adequate patient information systems, “doctor shopping” patients can obtain multiple opioid prescriptions for nonmedical use from different unknowing physicians. Our study estimates the prevalence of doctor shopping in the US and the amounts and types of opioids involved. Methods and Findings The sample included records for 146.1 million opioid prescriptions dispensed during 2008 by 76% of US retail pharmacies. Prescriptions were linked to unique patients and weighted to estimate all prescriptions and patients in the nation. Finite mixture models were used to estimate different latent patient populations having different patterns of using prescribers. On average, patients in the extreme outlying population (0.7% of purchasers), presumed to be doctor shoppers, obtained 32 opioid prescriptions from 10 different prescribers. They bought 1.9% of all opioid prescriptions, constituting 4% of weighed amounts dispensed. Conclusions Our data did not provide information to make a clinical diagnosis of individuals. Very few of these patients can be classified with certainty as diverting drugs for nonmedical purposes. However, even patients with legitimate medical need for opioids who use large numbers of prescribers may signal dangerously uncoordinated care. To close the information gap that makes doctor shopping and uncoordinated care possible, states have created prescription drug monitoring programs to collect records of scheduled drugs dispensed, but the majority of physicians do not access this information. To facilitate use by busy practitioners, most monitoring programs should improve access and response time, scan prescription data to flag suspicious purchasing patterns and alert physicians and pharmacists. Physicians could also prevent doctor shopping by

  17. Estimates of the population prevalence of injection drug users among hispanic residents of large US metropolitan areas.

    PubMed

    Pouget, Enrique R; Friedman, Samuel R; Cleland, Charles M; Tempalski, Barbara; Cooper, Hannah L F

    2012-06-01

    Little information exists on the population prevalence or geographic distribution of injection drug users (IDUs) who are Hispanic in the USA. Here, we present yearly estimates of IDU population prevalence among Hispanic residents of the 96 most populated US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) for 1992-2002. First, yearly estimates of the proportion of IDUs who were Hispanic in each MSA were created by combining data on (1) IDUs receiving drug treatment services in Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA)'s Treatment Entry Data System, (2) IDUs being tested in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) HIV-Counseling and Testing System, and (3) incident AIDS diagnoses among IDUs, supplemented by (4) data on IDUs who were living with AIDS. Then, the resulting proportions were multiplied by published yearly estimates of the number of IDUs of all racial/ethnic groups in each MSA to produce Hispanic IDU population estimates. These were divided by Hispanic population data to produce population prevalence rates. Time trends were tested using mixed-effects regression models. Hispanic IDU prevalence declined significantly on average (1992 mean = 192, median = 133; 2002 mean = 144, median = 93; units are per 10,000 Hispanics aged 15-64). The highest prevalence rates across time tended to be in smaller northeastern MSAs. Comparing the last three study years to the first three, prevalence decreased in 82% of MSAs and increased in 18%. Comparisons with data on drug-related mortality and hepatitis C mortality supported the validity of the estimates. Generally, estimates of Hispanic IDU population prevalence were higher than published estimates for non-Hispanic White residents and lower than published estimates for non-Hispanic Black residents. Further analysis indicated that the proportion of IDUs that was Hispanic decreased in 52% and increased in 48% of MSAs between 2002 and 2007. The estimates resulting from this study can

  18. Estimated amount of 24-hour urine sodium excretion is positively correlated with stomach and breast cancer prevalence in Korea.

    PubMed

    Park, Jung Hwan; Kim, Yong Chul; Koo, Ho Seok; Oh, Se Won; Kim, Suhnggwon; Chin, Ho Jun

    2014-09-01

    Stomach cancer is one of the most common cancers in Korea. The aim of this study was to identify the association between the prevalence of cancer, particularly stomach cancer, and the amount of 24-hr urine sodium excretion estimated from spot urine specimens. The study included 19,083 subjects who took part in the Korean National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey between 2009 and 2011. The total amount of urine sodium excreted in a 24-hr period was estimated by using two equations based on the values for spot urine sodium and creatinine. In subjects who had an estimated 24-hr urine sodium excretion of more than two standard deviations above the mean (group 2), the prevalence of stomach cancer was higher than in subjects with lower 24-hr sodium excretion (group 1). By using the Tanaka equation to estimate it, the prevalence of stomach cancer was 0.6% (114/18,331) in group 1, whereas it was 1.6% (9/568) in group 2 (P=0.006). By using the Korean equation, the prevalence was 0.6% (115/18,392) in group 1, and 1.6% in group 2 (8/507) (P=0.010). By using the Tanaka equation, breast cancer in women is more prevalent in group 2 (1.9%, 6/324) than group 1 (0.8%, 78/9,985, P=0.039). Higher salt intake, as defined by the estimated amount of 24-hr urine sodium excretion, is positively correlated with a higher prevalence of stomach or breast cancer in the Korean population.

  19. The prevalence of Barrett's esophagus in the US: estimates from a simulation model confirmed by SEER data.

    PubMed

    Hayeck, T J; Kong, C Y; Spechler, S J; Gazelle, G S; Hur, C

    2010-08-01

    Barrett's esophagus (BE) is the precursor and the biggest risk factor for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), the solid cancer with the fastest rising incidence in the US and western world. Current strategies to decrease morbidity and mortality from EAC have focused on identifying and surveying patients with BE using upper endoscopy. An accurate estimate of the number of patients with BE in the population is important to inform public health policy and to prioritize resources for potential screening and management programs. However, the true prevalence of BE is difficult to ascertain because the condition frequently is symptomatically silent, and the numerous clinical studies that have analyzed BE prevalence have produced a wide range of estimates. The aim of this study was to use a computer simulation disease model of EAC to determine the estimates for BE prevalence that best align with US Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) cancer registry data. A previously developed mathematical model of EAC was modified to perform this analysis. The model consists of six health states: normal, gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), BE, undetected cancer, detected cancer, and death. Published literature regarding the transition rates between these states were used to provide boundaries. During the one million computer simulations that were performed, these transition rates were systematically varied, producing differing prevalences for the numerous health states. Two filters were sequentially applied to select out superior simulations that were most consistent with clinical data. First, among these million simulations, the 1000 that best reproduced SEER cancer incidence data were selected. Next, of those 1000 best simulations, the 100 with an overall calculated BE to Detected Cancer rates closest to published estimates were selected. Finally, the prevalence of BE in the final set of best 100 simulations was analyzed. We present histogram data depicting BE prevalences

  20. The Prevalence of Barrett’s Esophagus in the US: Estimates from a Simulation Model Confirmed by SEER Data

    PubMed Central

    Hayeck, Tristan J.; Kong, Chung Yin; Spechler, Stuart J.; Gazelle, G. Scott; Hur, Chin

    2010-01-01

    Background Barrett’s Esophagus (BE) is the precursor and the biggest risk factor for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), the solid cancer with the fastest rising incidence in the US and western world. Current strategies to decrease morbidity and mortality from EAC have focused on identifying and surveying patients with BE using upper endoscopy. An accurate estimate of the number of patients with BE in the population is important to inform public health policy and to prioritize resources for potential screening and management programs. However, the true prevalence of BE is difficult to ascertain because the condition frequently is symptomatically silent, and the numerous clinical studies that have analyzed BE prevalence have produced a wide range of estimates. The aim of this study was to use a computer simulation disease model of EAC to determine the estimates for BE prevalence that best align with US SEER cancer registry data. Methods A previously developed mathematical model of EAC was modified to perform this analysis. The model consists of six health states: Normal, GERD, BE, Undetected Cancer, Detected Cancer and Death. Published literature regarding the transition rates between these states were used to provide boundaries. During the one million computer simulations that were performed, these transition rates were systematically varied, producing differing prevalences for the numerous health states. Two filters were sequentially applied to select out superior simulations that were most consistent with clinical data. First, among these million simulations, the 1,000 that best reproduced SEER cancer incidence data were selected. Next, of those 1000 best simulations, the 100 with an overall calculated BE to Detected Cancer rates closest to published estimates were selected. Finally, the prevalence of BE in the final set of best 100 simulations was analyzed. Results We present histogram data depicting BE prevalences for all one million simulations, the 1000

  1. Latent class regression models for simultaneously estimating test accuracy, true prevalence and risk factors for Brucella abortus.

    PubMed

    Campe, A; Abernethy, D; Menzies, F; Greiner, M

    2016-07-01

    In 2003/2004 a field trial was conducted in Northern Ireland to assess the diagnostic accuracy of six serological tests for bovine brucellosis caused by Brucella abortus. Whereas between-test comparisons have been used to calculate test performances so far, the present study used a latent class approach to estimate diagnostic test accuracy parameters in the absence of a gold standard for these six tests simultaneously and to estimate the true prevalence, while accounting for clustering in the study population and risk factors for true prevalence. Results obtained in this study with regard to prevalence, sensitivity and specificity were largely in accordance with previous findings. Screening tests (SAT and EDTA) appeared to be the most sensitive; however, at low prevalences the EDTA and CFT showed the highest positive predictive values of all investigated tests. The specificities and negative predictive values of all diagnostic tests were found to be very high. Differences of prevalence between three groups of the study population with different risk of exposure could be attributed to the mode of sampling indicating that a more risk-based sampling will result in a higher prevalence than a cross-sectional sampling mode. Age, dairy status and history of abortion were shown to influence the prediction of the latent true infection status.

  2. Latent class regression models for simultaneously estimating test accuracy, true prevalence and risk factors for Brucella abortus.

    PubMed

    Campe, A; Abernethy, D; Menzies, F; Greiner, M

    2016-07-01

    In 2003/2004 a field trial was conducted in Northern Ireland to assess the diagnostic accuracy of six serological tests for bovine brucellosis caused by Brucella abortus. Whereas between-test comparisons have been used to calculate test performances so far, the present study used a latent class approach to estimate diagnostic test accuracy parameters in the absence of a gold standard for these six tests simultaneously and to estimate the true prevalence, while accounting for clustering in the study population and risk factors for true prevalence. Results obtained in this study with regard to prevalence, sensitivity and specificity were largely in accordance with previous findings. Screening tests (SAT and EDTA) appeared to be the most sensitive; however, at low prevalences the EDTA and CFT showed the highest positive predictive values of all investigated tests. The specificities and negative predictive values of all diagnostic tests were found to be very high. Differences of prevalence between three groups of the study population with different risk of exposure could be attributed to the mode of sampling indicating that a more risk-based sampling will result in a higher prevalence than a cross-sectional sampling mode. Age, dairy status and history of abortion were shown to influence the prediction of the latent true infection status. PMID:27245291

  3. Respondent-driven sampling of injection drug users in two U.S.-Mexico border cities: recruitment dynamics and impact on estimates of HIV and syphilis prevalence.

    PubMed

    Frost, Simon D W; Brouwer, Kimberly C; Firestone Cruz, Michelle A; Ramos, Rebeca; Ramos, Maria Elena; Lozada, Remedios M; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Strathdee, Steffanie A

    2006-11-01

    Respondent-driven sampling (RDS), a chain referral sampling approach, is increasingly used to recruit participants from hard-to-reach populations, such as injection drug users (IDUs). Using RDS, we recruited IDUs in Tijuana and Ciudad (Cd.) Juárez, two Mexican cities bordering San Diego, CA and El Paso, TX, respectively, and compared recruitment dynamics, reported network size, and estimates of HIV and syphilis prevalence. Between February and April 2005, we used RDS to recruit IDUs in Tijuana (15 seeds, 207 recruits) and Cd. Juárez (9 seeds, 197 recruits), Mexico for a cross-sectional study of behavioral and contextual factors associated with HIV, HCV and syphilis infections. All subjects provided informed consent, an anonymous interview, and a venous blood sample for serologic testing of HIV, HCV, HBV (Cd. Juárez only) and syphilis antibody. Log-linear models were used to analyze the association between the state of the recruiter and that of the recruitee in the referral chains, and population estimates of the presence of syphilis antibody were obtained, correcting for biased sampling using RDS-based estimators. Sampling of the targeted 200 recruits per city was achieved rapidly (2 months in Tijuana, 2 weeks in Cd. Juárez). After excluding seeds and missing data, the sample prevalence of HCV, HIV and syphilis were 96.6, 1.9 and 13.5% respectively in Tijuana, and 95.3, 4.1, and 2.7% respectively in Cd. Juárez (where HBV prevalence was 84.7%). Syphilis cases were clustered in recruitment trees. RDS-corrected estimates of syphilis antibody prevalence ranged from 12.8 to 26.8% in Tijuana and from 2.9 to 15.6% in Ciudad Juárez, depending on how recruitment patterns were modeled, and assumptions about how network size affected an individual's probability of being included in the sample. RDS was an effective method to rapidly recruit IDUs in these cities. Although the frequency of HIV was low, syphilis prevalence was high, particularly in Tijuana. RDS

  4. Respondent-Driven Sampling of Injection Drug Users in Two U.S.–Mexico Border Cities: Recruitment Dynamics and Impact on Estimates of HIV and Syphilis Prevalence

    PubMed Central

    Brouwer, Kimberly C.; Firestone Cruz, Michelle A.; Ramos, Rebeca; Ramos, Maria Elena; Lozada, Remedios M.; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Strathdee, Steffanie A.

    2006-01-01

    Respondent-driven sampling (RDS), a chain referral sampling approach, is increasingly used to recruit participants from hard-to-reach populations, such as injection drug users (IDUs). Using RDS, we recruited IDUs in Tijuana and Ciudad (Cd.) Juárez, two Mexican cities bordering San Diego, CA and El Paso, TX, respectively, and compared recruitment dynamics, reported network size, and estimates of HIV and syphilis prevalence. Between February and April 2005, we used RDS to recruit IDUs in Tijuana (15 seeds, 207 recruits) and Cd. Juárez (9 seeds, 197 recruits), Mexico for a cross-sectional study of behavioral and contextual factors associated with HIV, HCV and syphilis infections. All subjects provided informed consent, an anonymous interview, and a venous blood sample for serologic testing of HIV, HCV, HBV (Cd. Juárez only) and syphilis antibody. Log-linear models were used to analyze the association between the state of the recruiter and that of the recruitee in the referral chains, and population estimates of the presence of syphilis antibody were obtained, correcting for biased sampling using RDS-based estimators. Sampling of the targeted 200 recruits per city was achieved rapidly (2 months in Tijuana, 2 weeks in Cd. Juárez). After excluding seeds and missing data, the sample prevalence of HCV, HIV and syphilis were 96.6, 1.9 and 13.5% respectively in Tijuana, and 95.3, 4.1, and 2.7% respectively in Cd. Juárez (where HBV prevalence was 84.7%). Syphilis cases were clustered in recruitment trees. RDS-corrected estimates of syphilis antibody prevalence ranged from 12.8 to 26.8% in Tijuana and from 2.9 to 15.6% in Ciudad Juárez, depending on how recruitment patterns were modeled, and assumptions about how network size affected an individual’s probability of being included in the sample. RDS was an effective method to rapidly recruit IDUs in these cities. Although the frequency of HIV was low, syphilis prevalence was high, particularly in Tijuana. RDS

  5. Equipment Errors: A Prevalent Cause for Fallacy in Blood Pressure Recording - A Point Prevalence Estimate from an Indian Health University

    PubMed Central

    Mishra, Badrinarayan; Sinha, Nidhi Dinesh; Gidwani, Hitesh; Shukla, Sushil Kumar; Kawatra, Abhishek; Mehta, SC

    2013-01-01

    Background: Blood pressure (BP) recording is the most commonly measured clinical parameter. Standing mercury sphygmomanometer is the most widely used equipment to record this. However, recording by sphygmomanometer is subject to observer and instrumental error. The different sources of equipment error are faulty manometer tube calibration, baseline deviations and improper arm bladder cuff dimensions. This is further compounded by a high prevalence of arm bladder miss-cuffing in the target population. Objectives: The study was designed to assess the presence of equipment malcalibrations, cuff miss-matching and their effect on BP recording. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional check of all operational sphygmomanometers in a health university was carried out for the length of the manometer tube, deviation of resting mercury column from “0” level, the width and length of arm bladder cuff and extent of bladder cuff-mismatch with respect to outpatient attending population. Results: From the total of 50 apparatus selected, 39 (78%) were from hospital setups and 11 (22%) from pre-clinical departments. A manometer height deficit of 13 mm was recorded in 36 (92.23%) of the equipment in hospital and 11 (100%) from pre-clinical departments. Instruments from both settings showed significant deviation from recommended dimensions in cuff bladder length, width and length to width ratio (P < 0.001). Significant number of apparatus from hospital setups showed presence of mercury manometer baseline deviation either below or above 0 mmHg at the resting state (χ2 = 5.61, D. F. = 1, P = 0.02). Positive corelationship was observed between manometer height deficit, baseline deviation and width of arm cuff bladder (Pearson correlation, P < 0.05). Bladder cuff mismatching in response to the target population was found at 48.52% for males and 36.76% for females. The cumulative effect of these factors can lead to an error in the range of 10-12 mmHg. Conclusion: Faulty equipments and

  6. Comparison of Paper-and-Pencil versus Web Administration of the Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS): Risk Behavior Prevalence Estimates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eaton, Danice K.; Brener, Nancy D.; Kann, Laura; Denniston, Maxine M.; McManus, Tim; Kyle, Tonja M.; Roberts, Alice M.; Flint, Katherine H.; Ross, James G.

    2010-01-01

    The authors examined whether paper-and-pencil and Web surveys administered in the school setting yield equivalent risk behavior prevalence estimates. Data were from a methods study conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in spring 2008. Intact classes of 9th- or 10th-grade students were assigned randomly to complete a…

  7. Estimating the Prevalence of Anxiety and Mood Disorders in an Adolescent General Population: An Evaluation of the GHQ12

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mann, Robert E.; Paglia-Boak, Angela; Adlaf, Edward M.; Beitchman, Joseph; Wolfe, David; Wekerle, Christine; Hamilton, Hayley A.; Rehm, Jurgen

    2011-01-01

    Anxiety and mood disorders (AMD) may be more common among adolescents than previously thought, and epidemiological research would benefit from an easily-administered measure of AMD. We assessed the ability of the GHQ12 to estimate the prevalence of AMD in a representative sample of Ontario adolescents. Data were based on self-administered…

  8. Bayesian estimation of prevalence of paratuberculosis in dairy herds enrolled in a voluntary Johne's Disease Control Programme in Ireland.

    PubMed

    McAloon, Conor G; Doherty, Michael L; Whyte, Paul; O'Grady, Luke; More, Simon J; Messam, Locksley L McV; Good, Margaret; Mullowney, Peter; Strain, Sam; Green, Martin J

    2016-06-01

    Bovine paratuberculosis is a disease characterised by chronic granulomatous enteritis which manifests clinically as a protein-losing enteropathy causing diarrhoea, hypoproteinaemia, emaciation and, eventually death. Some evidence exists to suggest a possible zoonotic link and a national voluntary Johne's Disease Control Programme was initiated by Animal Health Ireland in 2013. The objective of this study was to estimate herd-level true prevalence (HTP) and animal-level true prevalence (ATP) of paratuberculosis in Irish herds enrolled in the national voluntary JD control programme during 2013-14. Two datasets were used in this study. The first dataset had been collected in Ireland during 2005 (5822 animals from 119 herds), and was used to construct model priors. Model priors were updated with a primary (2013-14) dataset which included test records from 99,101 animals in 1039 dairy herds and was generated as part of the national voluntary JD control programme. The posterior estimate of HTP from the final Bayesian model was 0.23-0.34 with a 95% probability. Across all herds, the median ATP was found to be 0.032 (0.009, 0.145). This study represents the first use of Bayesian methodology to estimate the prevalence of paratuberculosis in Irish dairy herds. The HTP estimate was higher than previous Irish estimates but still lower than estimates from other major dairy producing countries. PMID:27237395

  9. National estimates of Australian gambling prevalence: f indings from a dual‐frame omnibus survey

    PubMed Central

    Youssef, G. J.; Jackson, A. C.; Pennay, D. W.; Francis, K. L.; Pennay, A.; Lubman, D. I.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Background, aims and design The increase in mobile telephone‐only households may be a source of bias for traditional landline gambling prevalence surveys. Aims were to: (1) identify Australian gambling participation and problem gambling prevalence using a dual‐frame (50% landline and 50% mobile telephone) computer‐assisted telephone interviewing methodology; (2) explore the predictors of sample frame and telephone status; and (3) explore the degree to which sample frame and telephone status moderate the relationships between respondent characteristics and problem gambling. Setting and participants A total of 2000 adult respondents residing in Australia were interviewed from March to April 2013. Measurements Participation in multiple gambling activities and Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI). Findings Estimates were: gambling participation [63.9%, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 61.4–66.3], problem gambling (0.4%, 95% CI = 0.2–0.8), moderate‐risk gambling (1.9%, 95% CI = 1.3–2.6) and low‐risk gambling (3.0%, 95% CI = 2.2–4.0). Relative to the landline frame, the mobile frame was more likely to gamble on horse/greyhound races [odds ratio (OR) = 1.4], casino table games (OR = 5.0), sporting events (OR = 2.2), private games (OR = 1.9) and the internet (OR = 6.5); less likely to gamble on lotteries (OR = 0.6); and more likely to gamble on five or more activities (OR = 2.4), display problem gambling (OR = 6.4) and endorse PGSI items (OR = 2.4‐6.1). Only casino table gambling (OR = 2.9) and internet gambling (OR = 3.5) independently predicted mobile frame membership. Telephone status (landline frame versus mobile dual users and mobile‐only users) displayed similar findings. Finally, sample frame and/or telephone status moderated the relationship between gender, relationship status, health and problem gambling (OR = 2.9–7.6). Conclusion Given expected future increases in the

  10. Effect of nutrition survey 'cleaning criteria' on estimates of malnutrition prevalence and disease burden: secondary data analysis.

    PubMed

    Crowe, Sonya; Seal, Andrew; Grijalva-Eternod, Carlos; Kerac, Marko

    2014-01-01

    Tackling childhood malnutrition is a global health priority. A key indicator is the estimated prevalence of malnutrition, measured by nutrition surveys. Most aspects of survey design are standardised, but data 'cleaning criteria' are not. These aim to exclude extreme values which may represent measurement or data-entry errors. The effect of different cleaning criteria on malnutrition prevalence estimates was unknown. We applied five commonly used data cleaning criteria (WHO 2006; EPI-Info; WHO 1995 fixed; WHO 1995 flexible; SMART) to 21 national Demographic and Health Survey datasets. These included a total of 163,228 children, aged 6-59 months. We focused on wasting (low weight-for-height), a key indicator for treatment programmes. Choice of cleaning criteria had a marked effect: SMART were least inclusive, resulting in the lowest reported malnutrition prevalence, while WHO 2006 were most inclusive, resulting in the highest. Across the 21 countries, the proportion of records excluded was 3 to 5 times greater when using SMART compared to WHO 2006 criteria, resulting in differences in the estimated prevalence of total wasting of between 0.5 and 3.8%, and differences in severe wasting of 0.4-3.9%. The magnitude of difference was associated with the standard deviation of the survey sample, a statistic that can reflect both population heterogeneity and data quality. Using these results to estimate case-loads for treatment programmes resulted in large differences for all countries. Wasting prevalence and caseload estimations are strongly influenced by choice of cleaning criterion. Because key policy and programming decisions depend on these statistics, variations in analytical practice could lead to inconsistent and potentially inappropriate implementation of malnutrition treatment programmes. We therefore call for mandatory reporting of cleaning criteria use so that results can be compared and interpreted appropriately. International consensus is urgently needed

  11. Prevalence of gender disparities and predictors affecting the occurrence of mild cognitive impairment (MCI).

    PubMed

    Lee, Lai Kuan; Shahar, Suzana; Chin, Ai-Vyrn; Mohd Yusoff, Noor Aini; Rajab, Norfadilah; Aziz, Safiyyah Abdul

    2012-01-01

    The aims were to investigate the prevalence of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) within gender disparities in Malaysian older adults, and to determine the predictors of MCI according to gender disparities. A community-based sample of urban, multiethnic dwelling elderly aged 60 years of age and above from Cheras, Kuala Lumpur was recruited. Prevalence of all-type MCI, amnestic-type MCI (am-MCI) and non-amnestic-type MCI (nam-MCI) was assessed using comprehensive neuropsychological batteries. The association between demography, socioeconomic status, lifestyle practices, and nutritional status and health risk factors with MCI were examined. Predictors of MCI occurrence between gender disparities were determined. The prevalence of all-type MCI, am-MCI and nam-MCI was 21.1%, 15.4% and 5.7%, respectively. Binary logistic regression indicated that hypercholesterolemia is the significant predictor for MCI in men after adjustment for age, ethnicity and total years of education. While, in women, MCI was best predicted by married status, without exercise practice, overweight and obesity. These results suggest that approximately one-fifth of the studied elderly people had MCI. Predictors for MCI are totally different between men and women. It is critical to identify those at higher risk for MCI in order to implement preventative measures to delay or reverse this abnormal condition. PMID:21546098

  12. Prevalence of gender disparities and predictors affecting the occurrence of mild cognitive impairment (MCI).

    PubMed

    Lee, Lai Kuan; Shahar, Suzana; Chin, Ai-Vyrn; Mohd Yusoff, Noor Aini; Rajab, Norfadilah; Aziz, Safiyyah Abdul

    2012-01-01

    The aims were to investigate the prevalence of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) within gender disparities in Malaysian older adults, and to determine the predictors of MCI according to gender disparities. A community-based sample of urban, multiethnic dwelling elderly aged 60 years of age and above from Cheras, Kuala Lumpur was recruited. Prevalence of all-type MCI, amnestic-type MCI (am-MCI) and non-amnestic-type MCI (nam-MCI) was assessed using comprehensive neuropsychological batteries. The association between demography, socioeconomic status, lifestyle practices, and nutritional status and health risk factors with MCI were examined. Predictors of MCI occurrence between gender disparities were determined. The prevalence of all-type MCI, am-MCI and nam-MCI was 21.1%, 15.4% and 5.7%, respectively. Binary logistic regression indicated that hypercholesterolemia is the significant predictor for MCI in men after adjustment for age, ethnicity and total years of education. While, in women, MCI was best predicted by married status, without exercise practice, overweight and obesity. These results suggest that approximately one-fifth of the studied elderly people had MCI. Predictors for MCI are totally different between men and women. It is critical to identify those at higher risk for MCI in order to implement preventative measures to delay or reverse this abnormal condition.

  13. The prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder among children and adolescents affected by tsunami disaster in Tamil Nadu.

    PubMed

    John, Prashantham Baddam; Russell, Sushila; Russell, Paul Swamidhas Sudhakar

    2007-01-01

    The Asian earthquake and subsequent tsunami of December 2004, one of the largest natural disasters in recent history, resulted in the deaths of over 250,000 people and massive destruction in 8 countries. As with any disaster, children are at risk for developing short- and long-term psychological consequences, including posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). One area particularly affected by this disaster was southern India. Five hundred twenty-three juvenile survivors of the tsunami were studied to determine the prevalence of PTSD. The survey was conducted in 2 waves. Interviews were conducted by postgraduate psychiatric social work students, proficient in the local language of Tamil and trained in PTSD-related data collection. The Impact of Event Scale-8 items Tamil Version and Child Behaviour Checklist Post-traumatic Stress Disorder-Tamil Revised Version, with age-specific measures and validated for the local culture and language, were used for the study. Our study revealed a prevalence of 70.7% for acute PTSD and 10.9% for delayed onset PTSD. PTSD was more prevalent among girls and more severe among adolescents exposed to loss of life or property. These results indicate that PTSD is widely prevalent among the survivors of the tsunami, reinforcing the need to develop an effective, culturally sensitive outreach therapy strategy for them.

  14. Higher-order Multivariable Polynomial Regression to Estimate Human Affective States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Jie; Chen, Tong; Liu, Guangyuan; Yang, Jiemin

    2016-03-01

    From direct observations, facial, vocal, gestural, physiological, and central nervous signals, estimating human affective states through computational models such as multivariate linear-regression analysis, support vector regression, and artificial neural network, have been proposed in the past decade. In these models, linear models are generally lack of precision because of ignoring intrinsic nonlinearities of complex psychophysiological processes; and nonlinear models commonly adopt complicated algorithms. To improve accuracy and simplify model, we introduce a new computational modeling method named as higher-order multivariable polynomial regression to estimate human affective states. The study employs standardized pictures in the International Affective Picture System to induce thirty subjects’ affective states, and obtains pure affective patterns of skin conductance as input variables to the higher-order multivariable polynomial model for predicting affective valence and arousal. Experimental results show that our method is able to obtain efficient correlation coefficients of 0.98 and 0.96 for estimation of affective valence and arousal, respectively. Moreover, the method may provide certain indirect evidences that valence and arousal have their brain’s motivational circuit origins. Thus, the proposed method can serve as a novel one for efficiently estimating human affective states.

  15. Higher-order Multivariable Polynomial Regression to Estimate Human Affective States.

    PubMed

    Wei, Jie; Chen, Tong; Liu, Guangyuan; Yang, Jiemin

    2016-01-01

    From direct observations, facial, vocal, gestural, physiological, and central nervous signals, estimating human affective states through computational models such as multivariate linear-regression analysis, support vector regression, and artificial neural network, have been proposed in the past decade. In these models, linear models are generally lack of precision because of ignoring intrinsic nonlinearities of complex psychophysiological processes; and nonlinear models commonly adopt complicated algorithms. To improve accuracy and simplify model, we introduce a new computational modeling method named as higher-order multivariable polynomial regression to estimate human affective states. The study employs standardized pictures in the International Affective Picture System to induce thirty subjects' affective states, and obtains pure affective patterns of skin conductance as input variables to the higher-order multivariable polynomial model for predicting affective valence and arousal. Experimental results show that our method is able to obtain efficient correlation coefficients of 0.98 and 0.96 for estimation of affective valence and arousal, respectively. Moreover, the method may provide certain indirect evidences that valence and arousal have their brain's motivational circuit origins. Thus, the proposed method can serve as a novel one for efficiently estimating human affective states. PMID:26996254

  16. Higher-order Multivariable Polynomial Regression to Estimate Human Affective States

    PubMed Central

    Wei, Jie; Chen, Tong; Liu, Guangyuan; Yang, Jiemin

    2016-01-01

    From direct observations, facial, vocal, gestural, physiological, and central nervous signals, estimating human affective states through computational models such as multivariate linear-regression analysis, support vector regression, and artificial neural network, have been proposed in the past decade. In these models, linear models are generally lack of precision because of ignoring intrinsic nonlinearities of complex psychophysiological processes; and nonlinear models commonly adopt complicated algorithms. To improve accuracy and simplify model, we introduce a new computational modeling method named as higher-order multivariable polynomial regression to estimate human affective states. The study employs standardized pictures in the International Affective Picture System to induce thirty subjects’ affective states, and obtains pure affective patterns of skin conductance as input variables to the higher-order multivariable polynomial model for predicting affective valence and arousal. Experimental results show that our method is able to obtain efficient correlation coefficients of 0.98 and 0.96 for estimation of affective valence and arousal, respectively. Moreover, the method may provide certain indirect evidences that valence and arousal have their brain’s motivational circuit origins. Thus, the proposed method can serve as a novel one for efficiently estimating human affective states. PMID:26996254

  17. Lifetime prevalence of suicide symptoms and affective disorders among men reporting same-sex sexual partners: results from NHANES III.

    PubMed Central

    Cochran, S D; Mays, V M

    2000-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: This study examined lifetime prevalence of suicide symptoms and affective disorders among men reporting a history of same-sex sexual partners. METHODS: In the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, men aged 17 to 39 years were assessed for lifetime history of affective disorders and sexual behavior patterns. The study classified this subset of men into 3 groups: those reporting same-sex sexual partners, those reporting only female sexual partners, and those reporting no sexual partners. Groups were compared for histories of suicide symptoms and affective disorders. RESULTS: A total of 2.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.3%, 3.1%) of men reported same-sex sexual partners. These men evidenced greater lifetime prevalence rates of suicide symptoms than men reporting only female partners. However, homosexually/bisexually experienced men were no more likely than exclusively heterosexual men to meet criteria for lifetime diagnosis of other affective disorders. CONCLUSIONS: These data provide further evidence of an increased risk for suicide symptoms among homosexually experienced men. Results also hint at a small, increased risk of recurrent depression among gay men, with symptom onset occurring, on average, during early adolescence. PMID:10754972

  18. Hepatitis C in HIV-infected individuals: a systematic review and meta-analysis of estimated prevalence in Africa

    PubMed Central

    Azevedo, Tiago Castro Lopes; Zwahlen, Marcel; Rauch, Andri; Egger, Matthias; Wandeler, Gilles

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Although hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening is recommended for all HIV-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy, data on epidemiologic characteristics of HCV infection in resource-limited settings are scarce. Methods We searched PubMed and EMBASE for studies assessing the prevalence of HCV infection among HIV-infected individuals in Africa and extracted data on laboratory methods used. Prevalence estimates from individual studies were combined for each country using random-effects meta-analysis. The importance of study design, population and setting as well as type of test (anti-HCV antibody tests and polymerase chain reactions) was examined with meta-regression. Results Three randomized controlled trials, 28 cohort studies and 121 cross-sectional analyses with 108,180 HIV-infected individuals from 35 countries were included. The majority of data came from outpatient populations (55%), followed by blood donors (15%) and pregnant women (14%). Based on estimates from 159 study populations, anti-HCV positivity prevalence ranged between 3.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8–4.7) in Southern Africa and 42.3% (95% CI 4.1–80.5) in North Africa. Study design, type of setting and age distribution did not influence this prevalence significantly. The prevalence of replicating HCV infection, estimated from data of 29 cohorts, was 2.0% (95% CI 1.5–2.6). Ten studies from nine countries reported the HCV genotype of 74 samples, 53% were genotype 1, 24% genotype 2, 14% genotype 4 and 9% genotypes 3, 5 or 6. Conclusions The prevalence of anti-HCV antibodies is high in HIV-infected patients in Africa, but replicating HCV infection is rare and varies widely across countries. PMID:27293220

  19. Childhood sexual abuse by representatives of the Roman Catholic Church: a prevalence estimate among the Dutch population.

    PubMed

    Langeland, Willemien; Hoogendoorn, Adriaan W; Mager, Daniel; Smit, Jan H; Draijer, Nel

    2015-08-01

    Estimates of the extent of childhood sexual abuse (CSA) within in the Roman Catholic Church (RCC) in the general population are difficult to find. The independent Commission of Inquiry into sexual abuse of minors in the RCC in the Netherlands collected population-based data to estimate its prevalence. A large random online population sample was surveyed using a two-phase stratified sampling procedure. In Phase 1, 34,267 subjects aged 40 years and older were screened for childhood exposure to sexual abuse by non-family members, a history of institutionalization and a Roman Catholic upbringing. In Phase 2, a stratified subset of 2,462 subjects was assessed to obtain more detailed target information about sexual abuse reports within the RCC. We employed multiple imputation for the estimation of RCC CSA in the original Phase 1 sample. The prevalence of non-familial CSA in general (14.0%) was higher among women (17.2%) than among men (10.6%). The prevalence of CSA within the Dutch RCC (1.7%) was higher among men (2.7%) than among women (0.7%). As expected, older subjects reported more often CSA in the RCC than their younger counterparts. Respondents who stayed for some time in RCC run institutions for education or child protection had a higher risk to report sexual abuse. Although sexual abuse of minors by representatives of the RCC was a structural problem during a period that the Church was highly influential in the Netherlands, the estimated prevalence of the phenomenon is only a fraction of the prevalence rate of non-familial CSA. PMID:26003819

  20. Widespread rape does not directly appear to increase the overall HIV prevalence in conflict-affected countries: so now what?

    PubMed Central

    Anema, Aranka; Joffres, Michel R; Mills, Edward; Spiegel, Paul B

    2008-01-01

    Background Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is severely affected by HIV/AIDS and conflict. Sexual violence as a weapon of war has been associated with concerns about heightened HIV incidence among women. Widespread rape by combatants has been documented in Burundi, Sierra Leone, Rwanda, Democratic Republic of Congo, Liberia, Sudan and Uganda. To examine the assertion that widespread rape may not directly increase HIV prevalence at the population level, we built a model to determine the potential impact of varying scenarios of widespread rape on HIV prevalence in the above seven African countries. Discussion Our findings show that even in the most extreme situations, where 15% of the female population was raped, where HIV prevalence among assailants was 8 times the country population prevalence, and where the HIV transmission rate was highest at 4 times the average high rate, widespread rape increased the absolute HIV prevalence of these countries by only 0.023%. These projections support the finding that widespread rape in conflict-affected countries in SSA has not incurred a major direct population-level change in HIV prevalence. However, this must not be interpreted to say that widespread rape does not pose serious problems to women's acquisition of HIV on an individual basis or in specific settings. Furthermore, direct and indirect consequences of sexual violence, such as physical and psychosocial trauma, unwanted pregnancies, and stigma and discrimination cannot be understated. Summary The conclusions of this article do not significantly change current practices in the field from an operational perspective. Proper care and treatment must be provided to every survivor of rape regardless of the epidemiological effects of HIV transmission at the population level. Sexual violence must be treated as a protection issue and not solely a reproductive health and psychosocial issue. It is worth publishing data and conclusions that could be misconstrued and may not make much of a

  1. How does relaxing the algorithm for autism affect DSM-V prevalence rates?

    PubMed

    Matson, Johnny L; Hattier, Megan A; Williams, Lindsey W

    2012-08-01

    Although it is still unclear what causes autism spectrum disorders (ASDs), over time researchers and clinicians have become more precise with detecting and diagnosing ASD. Many diagnoses, however, are based on the criteria established within the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM); thus, any change in these diagnostic criteria can have a great effect upon children with ASD and their families. It is predicted that the prevalence of ASD diagnoses will dramatically decrease with the adoption of the proposed DSM-5 criteria in 2013. The aim of this current study was to inspect the changes in prevalence first using a diagnostic criteria set which was modified slightly from the DSM-5 criteria (Modified-1 criteria) and again using a set of criteria which was relaxed even a bit more (Modified-2 criteria). Modified-1 resulted in 33.77 % fewer toddlers being diagnosed with ASD compared to the DSM-IV, while Modified-2 resulted in only a 17.98 % decrease in ASD diagnoses. Children diagnosed with the DSM-5 criteria exhibited the greatest levels of autism symptomatology, but the Mod-1, Mod-2, and DSM-IV groups still demonstrated significant impairments. Implications of these findings are discussed.

  2. Estimated prevalence of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in a sample of Panamanian school-aged children.

    PubMed

    Sánchez, Emelyn Y; Velarde, Silvia; Britton, Gabrielle B

    2011-04-01

    The present study investigated the prevalence of ADHD in a school sample of children ages 6-11 years in the city of Panama. The assessment battery included the Conners' Parent and Teacher Rating Scales, the Structured Developmental History of the Behavioral Assessment System for Children (BASC-2), and the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children (WISC-III). The prevalence of ADHD (N = 229) was 7.4%, with an estimate of 1.8% for the predominantly inattentive subtype, 3.1% for the predominantly hyperactive/impulsive subtype, and 2.6% for the combined subtype. The prevalence rate of ADHD is relatively low in Panama compared to those reported for samples in neighboring countries. Moreover, ADHD children were unlikely to have been identified or referred to psychological or special education assessments. Our findings confirm that ADHD is overlooked in some cultures and that a significant number of children with ADHD-related impairments are not receiving optimal intervention. PMID:21127963

  3. The prevalence of BRCA1 mutations in Chinese patients with early onset breast cancer and affected relatives

    PubMed Central

    Sng, J-H; Chang, J; Feroze, F; Rahman, N; Tan, W; Lim, S; Lehnert, M; Pool, S van der; Wong, J

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of BRCA1 mutations in Chinese breast cancer patients in Singapore. BRCA1 analysis was conducted in consecutive patients with breast cancer before the age of 40 years (76 women), or whose relatives had breast or ovarian cancer (16 women). Ten patients had both early onset breast cancer and affected relatives. Genomic DNA from peripheral mononuclear blood cells was studied by using the protein transcription–translation assay (exon 11) and single-strand conformational polymorphism, with subsequent DNA sequencing. All six disease-causing mutations occurred in women under 40 years (8.6%) with three occurring in patients under 35 years (three out of 22 patients, 13.6%). Mis-sense mutations of unknown significance were found in three patients. Two of the ten women with affected relatives under 40 years had BRCA1 mutations. The prevalence of BRCA1 mutations in Chinese patients with early onset breast cancer is similar to that observed in Caucasian women. Most Chinese patients with affected relatives were not carriers of BRCA1 mutations. © 2000 Cancer Research Campaign PMID:10682662

  4. The Prevalence and Affecting Factors on Self-Medication Among Students of Kermanshah University of Medical Science in 2014

    PubMed Central

    Ahmadi, Sayed Mojtaba; Sadeghi, Khirollah; Abdi, Alireza; Vahid, Mansour Pashaie

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Self-medication is an increasingly growing health problem, which has many adverse effects on human and the cost used in the production of medications. Aim The current study was conducted to estimate the prevalence of self-medication among student of Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences in 2014. Materials and Methods In a descriptive-cross-sectional study, 364 students of Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences were recruited through stratified random sampling method. Data collection was done by researcher-made questionnaire, entered to SPSS22 software and analysed by descriptive and inferential statistics. Results Of the 364 students, prevalence of self-medication was 123 (33.7%) the mean age was 21.63±1.92, among them 64.2% took the medication from the pharmacy and 34.95% have faced complications of self-medication. The main cause of self-medication among students were the history of a disease of taking medication (44.71%), deemed no importance of the disease (34.95%), and easy accessibility of the medication (20.32%). Conclusion With regard to the high prevalence of self-medication among the students, it is suggested to provide educational programs on the adverse effects of self-medication, and appropriate measures to control and prevent easy access to the medications. PMID:27437242

  5. Discrepancies between UN models and DHS survey estimates of maternal orphan prevalence: insights from analyses of survey data from Zimbabwe

    PubMed Central

    Robertson, L; Gregson, S; Madanhire, C; Walker, N; Mushati, P; Garnett, G; Nyamukapa, C

    2008-01-01

    Objectives: Model-based estimates of maternal (but not paternal) orphanhood are higher than those based on data from demographic and health surveys (DHS). We investigate the consistency of reporting of parental survival status in data from Manicaland, Zimbabwe. Methods: We compared estimates of paternal and maternal orphan prevalence in three rounds of a prospective household census in Manicaland (1998–2005) with estimates from DHS surveys and UNAIDS model projections. We investigated the consistency of reporting of parental survival status across the three rounds and compared estimates of adult mortality from the orphan data with direct estimates from concurrent follow-up of a general population cohort. Qualitative data were collected on possible reasons for misreporting. Results: Paternal and maternal orphan prevalence is increasing in Zimbabwe. Mothers reported as deceased in round 1 of the Manicaland survey were more likely than fathers to be reported as alive in rounds 2 or 3 (33.3% vs 13.4%). This pattern was most apparent among younger children. The qualitative findings suggest that foster parents sometimes claim adopted children as their natural children. Conclusions: These results are consistent with misreporting of foster parents as natural parents. This appears to be particularly common among foster mothers and could partly explain the discrepancy between mathematical model and DHS estimates of maternal orphanhood. PMID:18647868

  6. Estimating the Impact of Raising Prices and Eliminating Discounts on Cigarette Smoking Prevalence in the United States.

    PubMed

    Marynak, Kristy L; Xu, Xin; Wang, Xu; Holmes, Carissa Baker; Tynan, Michael A; Pechacek, Terry

    2016-01-01

    The average retail price per pack of cigarettes is less than $6, which is substantially lower than the $10 per-pack target established in 2014 by the Surgeon General to reduce the smoking rate. We estimated the impact of three cigarette pricing scenarios on smoking prevalence among teens aged 12-17 years, young adults aged 18-25 years, and adults aged ≥26 years, by state: (1) $0.94 federal tax increase on cigarettes, as proposed in the fiscal year 2017 President's budget; (2) $10 per-pack retail price, allowing discounts; and (3) $10 per-pack retail price, eliminating discounts. We conducted Monte Carlo simulations to generate point estimates of reductions in cigarette smoking prevalence by state. We found that each price scenario would substantially reduce cigarette smoking prevalence. A $10 per-pack retail price eliminating discounts could result in 637,270 fewer smokers aged 12-17 years; 4,186,954 fewer smokers aged 18-25 years; and 7,722,460 fewer smokers aged ≥26 years. Raising cigarette prices and eliminating discounts could substantially reduce cigarette smoking prevalence as well as smoking-related death and disease. PMID:27453597

  7. National Estimates of Exposure to Traumatic Events and PTSD Prevalence Using DSM-IV and DSM-5 Criteria

    PubMed Central

    Kilpatrick, Dean G.; Resnick, Heidi S.; Milanak, Melissa E.; Miller, Mark W.; Keyes, Katherine M.; Friedman, Matthew J.

    2014-01-01

    Prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) defined according to the American Psychiatric Association’s Diagnostic and Statistical Manual fifth edition (DSM-5; 2013) and fourth edition (DSM-IV; 1994) was compared in a national sample of U.S. adults (N = 2,953) recruited from an online panel. Exposure to traumatic events, PTSD symptoms, and functional impairment were assessed online using a highly structured, self-administered survey. Traumatic event exposure using DSM-5 criteria was high (89.7%), and exposure to multiple traumatic event types was the norm. PTSD caseness was determined using Same Event (i.e., all symptom criteria met to the same event type) and Composite Event (i.e., symptom criteria met to a combination of event types) definitions. Lifetime, past-12-month, and past 6-month PTSD prevalence using the Same Event definition for DSM-5 was 8.3%, 4.7%, and 3.8% respectively. All 6 DSM-5 prevalence estimates were slightly lower than their DSM-IV counterparts, although only 2 of these differences were statistically significant. DSM-5 PTSD prevalence was higher among women than among men, and prevalence increased with greater traumatic event exposure. Major reasons individuals met DSM-IV criteria, but not DSM-5 criteria were the exclusion of nonaccidental, nonviolent deaths from Criterion A, and the new requirement of at least 1 active avoidance symptom. PMID:24151000

  8. National estimates of exposure to traumatic events and PTSD prevalence using DSM-IV and DSM-5 criteria.

    PubMed

    Kilpatrick, Dean G; Resnick, Heidi S; Milanak, Melissa E; Miller, Mark W; Keyes, Katherine M; Friedman, Matthew J

    2013-10-01

    Prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) defined according to the American Psychiatric Association's Diagnostic and Statistical Manual fifth edition (DSM-5; 2013) and fourth edition (DSM-IV; 1994) was compared in a national sample of U.S. adults (N = 2,953) recruited from an online panel. Exposure to traumatic events, PTSD symptoms, and functional impairment were assessed online using a highly structured, self-administered survey. Traumatic event exposure using DSM-5 criteria was high (89.7%), and exposure to multiple traumatic event types was the norm. PTSD caseness was determined using Same Event (i.e., all symptom criteria met to the same event type) and Composite Event (i.e., symptom criteria met to a combination of event types) definitions. Lifetime, past-12-month, and past 6-month PTSD prevalence using the Same Event definition for DSM-5 was 8.3%, 4.7%, and 3.8% respectively. All 6 DSM-5 prevalence estimates were slightly lower than their DSM-IV counterparts, although only 2 of these differences were statistically significant. DSM-5 PTSD prevalence was higher among women than among men, and prevalence increased with greater traumatic event exposure. Major reasons individuals met DSM-IV criteria, but not DSM-5 criteria were the exclusion of nonaccidental, nonviolent deaths from Criterion A, and the new requirement of at least 1 active avoidance symptom.

  9. Factors affecting the prevalence of mange-mite infestations in stray dogs of Yucatán, Mexico.

    PubMed

    Rodriguez-Vivas, R I; Ortega-Pacheco, A; Rosado-Aguilar, J A; Bolio, G M E

    2003-07-10

    The aim of the present study was to determine the factors affecting the prevalence of mange-mite infestations in stray dogs of Yucatán, Mexico. The study was carried out in 200 stray dogs of Mérida capital city of Yucatán, Mexico. Four samples (head, thoracic-abdominal area, extremities and ear) were taken from each animal by skin scraping and examined microscopically in 10% KOH solution to detect the presence of mites. Mites were also collected from the external ear canal of dogs using cotton-tipped swabs. The prevalence of different mite species was calculated. A primary screening was performed using 2xK contingency tables of exposure variables. All variables with P< or =0.20 were analyzed by a logistic-binomial regression. The overall prevalence was 34%. Demodex canis (23.0%) was the most frequent mite, followed by Sarcoptes scabei var. canis (7.0%) and Otodectes cynotis (3.5%). The following factors were found: body condition (bad, OR: 5.35, CI 95%: 1.66-17.3; regular, OR: 3.72, CI 95%: 1.39-9.99) and the presence of macroscopic lesions of dermatosis (OR: 42.80, CI 95%: 13.65-134.24).

  10. Prevalence and factors affecting the use of tobacco, alcohol and addictive substance among university students in eastern Turkey.

    PubMed

    Erhan Deveci, S; Açik, Yasemin; Ferdane Oguzöncül, A; Deveci, Figen

    2010-07-01

    This study investigated the prevalence and factors affecting the use of cigarettes, alcohol and addictive substances among university students in Eastern Turkey. This cross-sectional study was conducted on 2258 students at Firat University in the city of Elazig, eastern Turkey. The subjects were students, randomly selected from each department of the university. A questionnaire was administered to the students under direct observation. The mean age of the participants was 21.36 +/- 2.93 years. Twenty-nine point three percent of the students smoked and 26.9% used alcohol. Six point six percent declared they had used an addictive substance other than cigarettes or alcohol at least once during their lifetime. Students who smoked had a higher monthly family income and allowance than nonsmokers (p < 0.05). Smoking was more prevalent among students whose fathers, siblings or close friends also smoked (p < 0.05). The use of alcohol was higher among students whose close friends used alcohol (p < 0.05). Six point three percent of participants stated they knew classmates who used addictive substances other than cigarettes or alcohol, and 12.4% declared they knew friends outside the classroom who used addictive drugs. At Firat University a large proportion of students reported using alcohol or smoking. Access to addictive drugs was also prevalent. Educational programs oriented towards young people must be prioritized in order to raise awareness regarding substance use. PMID:21073076

  11. Spatial Predictions of Rhodesian Human African Trypanosomiasis (Sleeping Sickness) Prevalence in Kaberamaido and Dokolo, Two Newly Affected Districts of Uganda

    PubMed Central

    Batchelor, Nicola A.; Atkinson, Peter M.; Gething, Peter W.; Picozzi, Kim; Fèvre, Eric M.; Kakembo, Abbas S. L.; Welburn, Susan C.

    2009-01-01

    The continued northwards spread of Rhodesian sleeping sickness or Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT) within Uganda is raising concerns of overlap with the Gambian form of the disease. Disease convergence would result in compromised diagnosis and treatment for HAT. Spatial determinants for HAT are poorly understood across small areas. This study examines the relationships between Rhodesian HAT and several environmental, climatic and social factors in two newly affected districts, Kaberamaido and Dokolo. A one-step logistic regression analysis of HAT prevalence and a two-step logistic regression method permitted separate analysis of both HAT occurrence and HAT prevalence. Both the occurrence and prevalence of HAT were negatively correlated with distance to the closest livestock market in all models. The significance of distance to the closest livestock market strongly indicates that HAT may have been introduced to this previously unaffected area via the movement of infected, untreated livestock from endemic areas. This illustrates the importance of the animal reservoir in disease transmission, and highlights the need for trypanosomiasis control in livestock and the stringent implementation of regulations requiring the treatment of cattle prior to sale at livestock markets to prevent any further spread of Rhodesian HAT within Uganda. PMID:20016846

  12. Estimating the prevalence of sensitive behaviour and cheating with a dual design for direct questioning and randomized response.

    PubMed

    van den Hout, Ardo; Böckenholt, Ulf; van der Heijden, Peter G M

    2010-08-01

    Randomized response is a misclassification design to estimate the prevalence of sensitive behaviour. Respondents who do not follow the instructions of the design are considered to be cheating. A mixture model is proposed to estimate the prevalence of sensitive behaviour and cheating in the case of a dual sampling scheme with direct questioning and randomized response. The mixing weight is the probability of cheating, where cheating is modelled separately for direct questioning and randomized response. For Bayesian inference, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling is applied to sample parameter values from the posterior. The model makes it possible to analyse dual sample scheme data in a unified way and to assess cheating for direct questions as well as for randomized response questions. The research is illustrated with randomized response data concerning violations of regulations for social benefit.

  13. Validation of a chart to estimate true Schistosoma mansoni prevalences from simple egg counts.

    PubMed

    De Vlas, S J; Engels, D; Rabello, A L; Oostburg, B F; Van Lieshout, L; Polderman, A M; Van Oortmarssen, G J; Habbema, J D; Gryseels, B

    1997-02-01

    Schistosoma mansoni egg counts by faecal examination vary considerably and are not very sensitive, so prevalences are underestimated. The distribution of egg counts can adequately be described by a stochastic model which distinguishes variation in counts between persons and variation in repeated counts within a person. Based on this model a pocket chart has been developed which predicts the proportion of individuals harbouring at least 1 S. mansoni worm pair-the 'true prevalence'-from a simple single survey prevalence and geometric mean egg count (using common duplicate 25 mg Kato-Katz smears). The current paper describes the validation of this chart by comparing predicted true prevalences with prevalences observed after 5-7 repeated Kato-Katz faecal examinations (Burundi), by examination of a large quantity of stool using the Visser filter (Brazil) or a selective sedimentation-filtration method (Surinam). Because 5-7 repeated examinations do not suffice to measure all infections, predictions have been made of the cumulative proportion positives over 5-7 surveys-the 'approximate true prevalence'-as well. After dividing the data into age groups, 12 different subsets were considered for validation. In all 12 cases, predicted true prevalences (or approximate true prevalences for the Burundi data) agree well with those observed. The overall agreement depends only slightly on the assumed relationship between worm numbers and mean egg counts, with a good fit for a productivity between 0.8 and 4.4 eggs per gramme faeces (EPG) per worm pair (WP). This interval includes the most plausible value from the literature, i.e. 1.0 EPG/WP, which has been applied in the initial pocket chart. These findings support the validity of the chart to predict true prevalences for a wide range of productivity assumptions, and reinforces the applicability of its underlying stochastic model to describe egg count variation. However, as predictions appear to vary importantly when using only part

  14. The Impact of Case Definition on ADHD Prevalence Estimates in Community-Based Samples of School-Aged Children

    PubMed Central

    McKeown, Robert E.; Holbrook, Joseph R.; Danielson, Melissa L.; Cuffe, Steven P.; Wolraich, Mark L.; Visser, Susanna N.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To determine the impact of varying ADHD diagnostic criteria, including new DSM-5 criteria, on prevalence estimates. Method Parent and teacher reports identified ADHD high and low screen children from elementary schools in two states that produced a diverse overall sample. The parent interview stage included the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children – IV (DISC-IV), and up to four additional follow-up interviews. Weighted prevalence estimates, accounting for complex sampling, quantified the impact of varying ADHD criteria using baseline and the final follow-up interview data. Results At baseline 1060 caregivers were interviewed; 656 had at least one follow-up interview. Teachers and parents reported six or more ADHD symptoms for 20.5% (95% CI: 18.1%–23.2%) and 29.8% (CI: 24.5%–35.6%) of children respectively, with criteria for impairment and onset by age seven (DSM-IV) reducing these proportions to 16.3% (CI: 14.7%–18.0%) and 17.5% (CI: 13.3%–22.8%); requiring at least four teacher-reported symptoms reduced the parent-reported prevalence to 8.9% (CI: 7.4%–10.6%). Revising age of onset to 12 years per DSM-5 increased this estimate to 11.3% (CI: 9.5%–13.3%), with a similar increase seen at follow-up: 8.2% with age seven onset (CI: 5.9%–11.2%) versus 13.0% (CI: 7.6%–21.4%) with onset by age 12. Reducing the number of symptoms required for those aged 17 and older increased the estimate to 13.1% (CI: 7.7%–21.5%). Conclusion These findings quantify the impact on prevalence estimates of varying case definition criteria for ADHD. Further research of impairment ratings and data from multiple informants is required to better inform clinicians conducting diagnostic assessments. DSM-5 changes in age of onset and number of symptoms required for older adolescents appear to increase prevalence estimates, although the full impact is uncertain due to the age of our sample. PMID:25524790

  15. Expanding vaccine efficacy estimation with dynamic models fitted to cross-sectional prevalence data post-licensure.

    PubMed

    Gjini, Erida; Gomes, M Gabriela M

    2016-03-01

    The efficacy of vaccines is typically estimated prior to implementation, on the basis of randomized controlled trials. This does not preclude, however, subsequent assessment post-licensure, while mass-immunization and nonlinear transmission feedbacks are in place. In this paper we show how cross-sectional prevalence data post-vaccination can be interpreted in terms of pathogen transmission processes and vaccine parameters, using a dynamic epidemiological model. We advocate the use of such frameworks for model-based vaccine evaluation in the field, fitting trajectories of cross-sectional prevalence of pathogen strains before and after intervention. Using SI and SIS models, we illustrate how prevalence ratios in vaccinated and non-vaccinated hosts depend on true vaccine efficacy, the absolute and relative strength of competition between target and non-target strains, the time post follow-up, and transmission intensity. We argue that a mechanistic approach should be added to vaccine efficacy estimation against multi-type pathogens, because it naturally accounts for inter-strain competition and indirect effects, leading to a robust measure of individual protection per contact. Our study calls for systematic attention to epidemiological feedbacks when interpreting population level impact. At a broader level, our parameter estimation procedure provides a promising proof of principle for a generalizable framework to infer vaccine efficacy post-licensure. PMID:26972516

  16. The Prevalence of Fragility Fractures in a Population of a Region of Southern Italy Affected by Thyroid Disorders

    PubMed Central

    Notarnicola, Angela; Pesce, Vito; Mudoni, Simona; Tafuri, Silvio; Moretti, Biagio

    2016-01-01

    In the literature there is no clear evidence of a relationship between thyropathies and fragility fractures. The aim of our study is to define the prevalence of thyroid disease in a study sample made up of subjects with fragility fractures and from the same geographical area. We retrospectively studied the “hospital discharge records” (HDR) in the Apulian Database for the period 2008–2013 in order to identify all those patients with fragility fractures that required hospitalization. After detecting the prevalent population, we identified the patients affected by thyroid disease. We observed that, between 2008 and 2013 in Apulia, 16,636 patients were affected by hyperthyroidism. In the same period there were 92,341 subjects with hypothyroidism. The incidence of fragility fractures was 4.5% in the population with hyperthyroidism. As regards the population with hypothyroidism, the incidence of fragility fractures was 3.7%. Furthermore, we assessed the statistical connection between thyroid disease and fragility fractures revealing a higher incidence in patients with hyperthyroidism and clinical hypothyroidism. PMID:27807539

  17. THE PREVALENCE OF CONSANGUINEOUS MARRIAGES AND AFFECTING FACTORS IN TURKEY: A NATIONAL SURVEY.

    PubMed

    Kaplan, Sena; Pinar, Gul; Kaplan, Bekir; Aslantekin, Filiz; Karabulut, Erdem; Ayar, Banu; Dilmen, Ugur

    2016-09-01

    This study was carried out by the Turkish Republic Ministry of Health to determine the prevalence of consanguineous marriage and its correlates with socio-demographic and obstetric risk factors in women in Turkey. The cross-sectional, national-level study was carried out from October to December 2013. The study population was composed of women between the ages of 15 and 65 years living in Turkey. The sample size was calculated as 9290 houses within Turkey's 81 provinces so as to improve the Turkish rural-urban expectations by means of systematic stack sampling according to the Turkish Statistical Institute's address-based vital statistics system. The target sample size was 6364, but only eligible 4913 women, who had been married, were included in the study. The consanguineous marriage frequency in the sample was found to be 18.5%, and of these 57.8% were first cousin marriages. Women living in an extended family and whose education level and first marriage ages were low, and whose perceived economic status was poor, had higher frequencies of consanguineous marriage (p<0.001). Consanguineous marriage frequencies were higher (p<0.001) for women who had spontaneous abortions and stillbirths or who had given birth to infants with a congenital abnormality. In this context, it is important to develop national policies and strategies to prevent consanguineous marriages in Turkey.

  18. Tuberculosis Infection in the United States: Prevalence Estimates from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2011-2012

    PubMed Central

    Miramontes, Roque; Hill, Andrew N.; Yelk Woodruff, Rachel S.; Lambert, Lauren A.; Navin, Thomas R.; Castro, Kenneth G.; LoBue, Philip A.

    2015-01-01

    Background Reexamining the prevalence of persons infected with tuberculosis (TB) is important to determine trends over time. In 2011–2012 a TB component was included in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) to estimate the reservoir of persons infected with TB. Methods Civilian, noninstitutionalized U.S. population survey participants aged 6 years and older were interviewed regarding their TB history and eligibility for the tuberculin skin test (TST) and interferon gamma release assay (IGRA) blood test. Once eligibility was confirmed, both tests were conducted. Prevalence and numbers of TST positive (10 mm or greater), IGRA positive, and both TST and IGRA positive were calculated by adjusting for the complex survey design after applying corrections for item nonresponse and digit preference in TST induration measurements. To examine TST positivity over time, data from NHANES 1999–2000 were reanalyzed using the same statistical methods. The TST was performed using Tubersol, a commercially available purified protein derivative (PPD), rather than PPD-S, which was the antigen used in NHANES 1999–2000. Prior patient history of TB vaccination was not collected in this study nor were patients examined for the presence of a Bacillus of Calmette and Guerin (BCG) vaccine scar. Results For NHANES 2011–2012, TST and IGRA results were available for 6,128 (78.4%) and 7,107 (90.9%) eligible participants, respectively. There was no significant difference between the percentage of the U.S. population that was TST positive in 2011–2012 (4.7% [95% CI 3.4–6.3]; 13,276,000 persons) compared with 1999–2000 (4.3%; 3.5–5.3). In 2011–2012 the percentage that was IGRA positive was 5.0% (4.2–5.8) and double TST and IGRA positivity was 2.1% (1.5–2.8). The point estimate of IGRA positivity prevalence in foreign-born persons (15.9%; 13.5–18.7) was lower than for TST (20.5%; 16.1–25.8) in 2011–2012. The point estimate of IGRA positivity

  19. Impact of Data Editing Methods on Estimates of Smoking Prevalence, Global Youth Tobacco Survey, 2007–2009

    PubMed Central

    Rolle, Italia; Shin, Mikyong; Lee, Kyung Ah

    2013-01-01

    Accuracy of self-reported data may be improved by data editing, a mechanism to produce accurate information by excluding inconsistent data based on a set number of predetermined decision rules. We compared data editing methods in the Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) with other editing approaches and evaluated the effects of these on smoking prevalence estimates. We evaluated 5 approaches for handling inconsistent responses to questions regarding cigarette use: GYTS, do-nothing, gatekeeper, global, and preponderance. Compared with GYTS data edits, the do-nothing and gatekeeper approaches produced similar estimates, whereas the global approach resulted in lower estimates and the preponderance approach, higher estimates. Implications for researchers using GYTS include recognition of the survey’s data editing methods and documentation in their study methods to ensure cross-study comparability. PMID:23517581

  20. Analytical considerations in the use of capture-recapture to estimate prevalence: case studies of the estimation of opiate use in the metropolitan area of Barcelona, Spain.

    PubMed

    Domingo-Salvany, A; Hartnoll, R L; Maguire, A; Brugal, M T; Albertín, P; Caylà, J A; Casabona, J; Suelves, J M

    1998-10-15

    Capture-recapture, an indirect method widely used to estimate undetected populations, has been criticized because it causes problems due to a lack of compliance with several important assumptions and model selection strategies. This paper expands on the problems encountered when applying this methodology to drug abuse estimations, specifically the prevalence of opiate use in the metropolitan area of Barcelona, Spain, in 1993. Three samples of opiate users (from hospital emergency rooms, treatment centers, and prisons) were available in the area studied; an additional sample (mortality data) was analyzed for the city of Barcelona. Log-linear models that provided a good fit were considered, to which further model selection strategies were applied. A total of 3,207 unique individuals aged 15-44 years were identified in the three samples from the greater Barcelona area; the mortality sample from the city of Barcelona contained an additional 83 individuals. Heterogeneity was observed in different age, sex, and residence area subgroups. Population estimates differed widely according to the log-linear model chosen. Minimum Akaike's information criterion model and saturated model estimates were used to produce population prevalence rates. The main problems the authors encountered in this study were related to population definition, source heterogeneity, and assessment of an adequate model, a problem associated with sample size. PMID:9786228

  1. Household survey in two provinces in Viet Nam estimates HIV prevalence in an urban and a rural population.

    PubMed

    Tuan, Nguyen Anh; Ha, Nguyen Thi Thanh; Diep, Vu Thi Bich; Thang, Pham Hong; Long, Nguyen Thanh; Huong, Phan Thi Thu; Duc, Bui Hoang; Wilson, David; Oelrichs, Robert; Hien, Nguyen Tran

    2008-08-01

    A household-based population study interviewed 2,553 women and 1,984 men aged 15-49 years in urban (Ho Chi Minh City) and rural (Thai Binh) provinces in Viet Nam between July and August 2005. The survey response rate was high--approximately 97% of households and 93% of adults overall, with a >92% acceptance of HIV testing among eligible adults. The unadjusted estimated population HIV prevalence was 0.3% (confidence interval [CI]: 0.1-0.6%) in Thai Binh and 0.7% (CI: 0.3-1.3) in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), compared with the national estimates and projections of 0.352% and 1.250%, respectively, for 2005. The ratio of male-to-female prevalence was 10.5:1 in Thai Binh and 1.3:1 in HCMC. A low level of men reported purchasing sex in the last 12 months (2.4%) and there were low self-reports of sexually transmitted infections in all adults (5%). A correct knowledge of HIV/AIDS prevention methods was high in both provinces (83%), although only 24.8% of women knew of the use of antiretroviral therapy to prevent vertical transmission of HIV. The observed population prevalence was consistent with recent projections in Thai Binh, although lower than expected in HCMC, indicating the substantial downward revisions of projected population HIV prevalence may need to be extended. The unequal sex prevalence ratio is consistent with the projected trends of increasing male-to-female sexual transmission in urban areas. The results and experience of this study will inform future population based surveys in Viet Nam and the broader Asian region. PMID:18724801

  2. Re-Evaluating Neonatal-Age Models for Ungulates: Does Model Choice Affect Survival Estimates?

    PubMed Central

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  3. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

    PubMed

    Grovenburg, Troy W; Monteith, Kevin L; Jacques, Christopher N; Klaver, Robert W; DePerno, Christopher S; Brinkman, Todd J; Monteith, Kyle B; Gilbert, Sophie L; Smith, Joshua B; Bleich, Vernon C; Swanson, Christopher C; Jenks, Jonathan A

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  4. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: Does model choice affect survival estimates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  5. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

    PubMed

    Grovenburg, Troy W; Monteith, Kevin L; Jacques, Christopher N; Klaver, Robert W; DePerno, Christopher S; Brinkman, Todd J; Monteith, Kyle B; Gilbert, Sophie L; Smith, Joshua B; Bleich, Vernon C; Swanson, Christopher C; Jenks, Jonathan A

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  6. A first-principles model for estimating the prevalence of annoyance with aircraft noise exposure.

    PubMed

    Fidell, Sanford; Mestre, Vincent; Schomer, Paul; Berry, Bernard; Gjestland, Truls; Vallet, Michel; Reid, Timothy

    2011-08-01

    Numerous relationships between noise exposure and transportation noise-induced annoyance have been inferred by curve-fitting methods. The present paper develops a different approach. It derives a systematic relationship by applying an a priori, first-principles model to the findings of forty three studies of the annoyance of aviation noise. The rate of change of annoyance with day-night average sound level (DNL) due to aircraft noise exposure was found to closely resemble the rate of change of loudness with sound level. The agreement of model predictions with the findings of recent curve-fitting exercises (cf. Miedma and Vos, 1998) is noteworthy, considering that other analyses have relied on different analytic methods and disparate data sets. Even though annoyance prevalence rates within individual communities consistently grow in proportion to duration-adjusted loudness, variability in annoyance prevalence rates across communities remains great. The present analyses demonstrate that 1) community-specific differences in annoyance prevalence rates can be plausibly attributed to the joint effect of acoustic and non-DNL related factors and (2) a simple model can account for the aggregate influences of non-DNL related factors on annoyance prevalence rates in different communities in terms of a single parameter expressed in DNL units-a "community tolerance level."

  7. [Prevalence of tobacco use in Switzerland in the 1990's--estimation of consumption trends based on 2 methods].

    PubMed

    Gmel, G

    2000-01-01

    Smoking prevalence rates in Switzerland in the 1990s++ have been estimated from Perma data, which have been available quarterly since 1991, as well as from the data of the first and second Swiss Health Surveys, conducted in 1992/93 and 1997. Both sources--each providing data on more than 10,000 respondents--have been large-scale surveys that have used different but complementary survey designs. The probabilistic sampling design of the Health Surveys assures representative findings; the Perma data, although obtained through a non-probabilistic sampling design, permits trend analysis as Perma uses multiple measurement points and therefore time-series methodology can be applied. Both Perma and the Health Surveys yielded approximately the same prevalence of 37% male smokers in 1992/93 and 39% in 1997. For females Perma gave 4% higher prevalence rates than the Health Surveys (Surveys 1992/93: 24%; 1997: 31%). For both sexes the increase in total smoking prevalence was accounted for mainly by adolescents and young adults. Whereas the Surveys showed an increase from 29% to 41% (18% to 39%) in males (females) aged 15 to 19 years, the corresponding increase derived from Perma was 50% less. Except for this youngest age-group, differences between the methods remained within standard statistical norms. There is no doubt, however, that smoking in adolescents increased between 1992/93 and 1997.

  8. Problem drug use prevalence estimation revisited: heterogeneity in capture–recapture and the role of external evidence

    PubMed Central

    Welton, Nicky J.; Ades, A. E.; Pierce, Matthias; Davies, Wyn; Coleman, Barbara; Millar, Tim; Hickman, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Background and Aims Capture–recapture (CRC) analysis is recommended for estimating the prevalence of problem drug use or people who inject drugs (PWID). We aim to demonstrate how naive application of CRC can lead to highly misleading results, and to suggest how the problems might be overcome. Methods We present a case study of estimating the prevalence of PWID in Bristol, UK, applying CRC to lists in contact with three services. We assess: (i) sensitivity of results to different versions of the dominant (treatment) list: specifically, to inclusion of non‐incident cases and of those who were referred directly from one of the other services; (ii) the impact of accounting for a novel covariate, housing instability; and (iii) consistency of CRC estimates with drug‐related mortality data. We then incorporate formally the drug‐related mortality data and lower bounds for prevalence alongside the CRC into a single coherent model. Results Five of 11 models fitted the full data equally well but generated widely varying prevalence estimates, from 2740 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 2670, 2840] to 6890 (95% CI = 3740, 17680). Results were highly sensitive to inclusion of non‐incident cases, demonstrating the presence of considerable heterogeneity, and were sensitive to a lesser extent to inclusion of direct referrals. A reduced data set including only incident cases and excluding referrals could be fitted by simpler models, and led to much greater consistency in estimates. Accounting for housing stability improved model fit considerably more than did the standard covariates of age and gender. External data provided validation of results and aided model selection, generating a final estimate of the number of PWID in Bristol in 2011 of 2770 [95% credible interval (Cr‐I) = 2570, 3110] or 0.9% (95% Cr‐I = 0.9, 1.0%) of the population aged 15–64 years. Conclusions Steps can be taken to reduce bias in capture–recapture analysis, including: careful

  9. Surgical Care Required for Populations Affected by Climate-related Natural Disasters: A Global Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Eugenia E.; Stewart, Barclay; Zha, Yuanting A.; Groen, Thomas A.; Burkle, Frederick M.; Kushner, Adam L.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Climate extremes will increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters worldwide.  Climate-related natural disasters were anticipated to affect 375 million people in 2015, more than 50% greater than the yearly average in the previous decade. To inform surgical assistance preparedness, we estimated the number of surgical procedures needed.   Methods: The numbers of people affected by climate-related disasters from 2004 to 2014 were obtained from the Centre for Research of the Epidemiology of Disasters database. Using 5,000 procedures per 100,000 persons as the minimum, baseline estimates were calculated. A linear regression of the number of surgical procedures performed annually and the estimated number of surgical procedures required for climate-related natural disasters was performed. Results: Approximately 140 million people were affected by climate-related natural disasters annually requiring 7.0 million surgical procedures. The greatest need for surgical care was in the People’s Republic of China, India, and the Philippines. Linear regression demonstrated a poor relationship between national surgical capacity and estimated need for surgical care resulting from natural disaster, but countries with the least surgical capacity will have the greatest need for surgical care for persons affected by climate-related natural disasters. Conclusion: As climate extremes increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters, millions will need surgical care beyond baseline needs. Countries with insufficient surgical capacity will have the most need for surgical care for persons affected by climate-related natural disasters. Estimates of surgical are particularly important for countries least equipped to meet surgical care demands given critical human and physical resource deficiencies.

  10. Surgical Care Required for Populations Affected by Climate-related Natural Disasters: A Global Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Eugenia E.; Stewart, Barclay; Zha, Yuanting A.; Groen, Thomas A.; Burkle, Frederick M.; Kushner, Adam L.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Climate extremes will increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters worldwide.  Climate-related natural disasters were anticipated to affect 375 million people in 2015, more than 50% greater than the yearly average in the previous decade. To inform surgical assistance preparedness, we estimated the number of surgical procedures needed.   Methods: The numbers of people affected by climate-related disasters from 2004 to 2014 were obtained from the Centre for Research of the Epidemiology of Disasters database. Using 5,000 procedures per 100,000 persons as the minimum, baseline estimates were calculated. A linear regression of the number of surgical procedures performed annually and the estimated number of surgical procedures required for climate-related natural disasters was performed. Results: Approximately 140 million people were affected by climate-related natural disasters annually requiring 7.0 million surgical procedures. The greatest need for surgical care was in the People’s Republic of China, India, and the Philippines. Linear regression demonstrated a poor relationship between national surgical capacity and estimated need for surgical care resulting from natural disaster, but countries with the least surgical capacity will have the greatest need for surgical care for persons affected by climate-related natural disasters. Conclusion: As climate extremes increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters, millions will need surgical care beyond baseline needs. Countries with insufficient surgical capacity will have the most need for surgical care for persons affected by climate-related natural disasters. Estimates of surgical are particularly important for countries least equipped to meet surgical care demands given critical human and physical resource deficiencies. PMID:27617165

  11. Estimation of canine Leishmania infection prevalence in six cities of the Algerian littoral zone using a Bayesian approach.

    PubMed

    Adel, Amel; Abatih, Emmanuel; Speybroeck, Niko; Soukehal, Abdelkrim; Bouguedour, Rachid; Boughalem, Karim; Bouhbal, Abdelmalek; Djerbal, Mouloud; Saegerman, Claude; Berkvens, Dirk

    2015-01-01

    A large-scale study on canine Leishmania infection (CanL) was conducted in six localities along a west-east transect in the Algerian littoral zone (Tlemcen, Mostaganem, Tipaza, Boumerdes, Bejaia, Jijel) and covering two sampling periods. In total 2,184 dogs were tested with an indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT) and a direct agglutination test (DAT). Combined multiple-testing and several statistical methods were compared to estimate the CanL true prevalence and tests characteristics (sensitivity and specificity). The Bayesian full model showed the best fit and yielded prevalence estimates between 11% (Mostaganem, first period) and 38% (Bejaia, second period). Sensitivity of IFAT varied (in function of locality) between 86% and 88% while its specificity varied between 65% and 87%. DAT was less sensitive than IFAT but showed a higher specificity (between 80% and 95% in function of locality or/and season). A general increasing trend of the CanL prevalence was noted from west to east. A concordance between the present results and the incidence of human cases of visceral leishmaniasis was observed, where also a maximum was recorded for Bejaia. The results of the present study highlight the dangers when using IFAT as a gold standard. PMID:25793942

  12. Recent Insights in the Epidemiology of Autoimmune Diseases: Improved Prevalence Estimates and Understanding of Clustering of Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Cooper, Glinda S.; Bynum, Milele L.K.; Somers, Emily C.

    2009-01-01

    Previous studies have estimated a prevalence of a broad grouping of autoimmune diseases of 3.2%, based on literature review of studies published between 1965 and 1995, and 5.3%, based on national hospitalization registry data in Denmark. We examine more recent studies pertaining to the prevalence of 29 autoimmune diseases, and use these data to correct for the underascertainment of some diseases in the hospitalization registry data. This analysis results in an estimated prevalence of 7.6–9.4%, depending on the size of the correction factor used. The rates for most diseases for which data are available from many geographic regions span overlapping ranges. We also review studies of the co-occurrence of diseases within individuals and within families, focusing on specific pairs of diseases to better distinguish patterns that may result in insights pertaining to shared etiological pathways. Overall, data support a tendency for autoimmune diseases to co-occur at greater than expected rates within proband patients and their families, but this does not appear to be a uniform phenomenon across all diseases. Multiple sclerosis and rheumatoid arthritis is one disease pair that appears to have a decreased chance of coexistence. PMID:19819109

  13. Estimation of Microbial Contamination of Food from Prevalence and Concentration Data: Application to Listeria monocytogenes in Fresh Vegetables▿

    PubMed Central

    Crépet, Amélie; Albert, Isabelle; Dervin, Catherine; Carlin, Frédéric

    2007-01-01

    A normal distribution and a mixture model of two normal distributions in a Bayesian approach using prevalence and concentration data were used to establish the distribution of contamination of the food-borne pathogenic bacteria Listeria monocytogenes in unprocessed and minimally processed fresh vegetables. A total of 165 prevalence studies, including 15 studies with concentration data, were taken from the scientific literature and from technical reports and used for statistical analysis. The predicted mean of the normal distribution of the logarithms of viable L. monocytogenes per gram of fresh vegetables was −2.63 log viable L. monocytogenes organisms/g, and its standard deviation was 1.48 log viable L. monocytogenes organisms/g. These values were determined by considering one contaminated sample in prevalence studies in which samples are in fact negative. This deliberate overestimation is necessary to complete calculations. With the mixture model, the predicted mean of the distribution of the logarithm of viable L. monocytogenes per gram of fresh vegetables was −3.38 log viable L. monocytogenes organisms/g and its standard deviation was 1.46 log viable L. monocytogenes organisms/g. The probabilities of fresh unprocessed and minimally processed vegetables being contaminated with concentrations higher than 1, 2, and 3 log viable L. monocytogenes organisms/g were 1.44, 0.63, and 0.17%, respectively. Introducing a sensitivity rate of 80 or 95% in the mixture model had a small effect on the estimation of the contamination. In contrast, introducing a low sensitivity rate (40%) resulted in marked differences, especially for high percentiles. There was a significantly lower estimation of contamination in the papers and reports of 2000 to 2005 than in those of 1988 to 1999 and a lower estimation of contamination of leafy salads than that of sprouts and other vegetables. The interest of the mixture model for the estimation of microbial contamination is discussed. PMID

  14. A determination of the prevalence of gender-based violence among conflict-affected populations in East Timor.

    PubMed

    Hynes, Michelle; Robertson, Kathryn; Ward, Jeanne; Crouse, Chadd

    2004-09-01

    The Reproductive Health Response in Conflict (RHRC) Consortium designed a standardised questionnaire to measure gender-based violence (GBV) prevalence in conflict-affected settings. A preliminary field test was undertaken July-August 2002 in one urban and one rural district in East Timor to assess the prevalence of GBV among women 18-49 years of age during and after conflict. The field test used a cross-sectional survey design with a two-stage random selection process. During the year preceding East Timor's 1999 crisis, 23.8 per cent of respondents reported physical assault by an intimate partner; this rate was not significantly different in the year preceding the survey (24.8 per cent). Assault by perpetrators outside the family declined significantly from 24.2 per cent during the crisis to 5.8 per cent post-crisis for physical assault (p<.001) and 22.7 per cent during the crisis to 9.7 per cent post-crisis for sexual assault (p=0.046). The field test stimulated and informed additional research in East Timor, and the complementary findings of these research initiatives continue to be used to develop local policies and programming to prevent and address GBV. PMID:15344943

  15. Impact of a New Gender-Specific Definition for Binge Drinking on Prevalence Estimates for Women

    PubMed Central

    Chavez, Pollyanna R.; Nelson, David E.; Naimi, Timothy S.; Brewer, Robert D.

    2011-01-01

    Background Binge drinking accounts for more than half of the 79,000 deaths due to excessive drinking in the U.S. each year. In 2006, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) lowered the threshold for defining binge drinking among women from ≥5 drinks to ≥4 drinks per occasion, in accordance with national recommendations. Purpose To assess changes in binge-drinking prevalence among women. Methods The relative and absolute change in binge drinking among U.S. adult women was assessed using pooled BRFSS data from the 2 years before (2004–2005) and after (2006–2007) the implementation of the new gender-specific definition. Analyses were conducted in 2008–2009. Results Binge-drinking prevalence among women increased 2.6 percentage points (from 7.3% in 2004–2005 to 9.9% in 2006–2007), a 35.6% relative increase. The percentage of women who reported consuming exactly 4 drinks in 2006 (3.6%) was similar to the increase in the prevalence of binge drinking among women that was observed from 2005 to 2006 (absolute change, 2.9 percentage points). Conclusions The new gender-specific definition of binge drinking significantly increased the identification of women drinking at dangerous levels. The change in prevalence among women was primarily due to the change in the definition and not to actual changes in drinking behavior. The new gender-specific definition of binge drinking can increase the usefulness of this measure for public health surveillance, and support the planning and implementation of effective prevention strategies (e.g., increasing alcohol excise taxes). PMID:21406282

  16. HIV-Prevalence in Tuberculosis Patients in Germany, 2002–2009: An Estimation Based on HIV and Tuberculosis Surveillance Data

    PubMed Central

    Fiebig, Lena; Kollan, Christian; Hauer, Barbara; Gunsenheimer-Bartmeyer, Barbara; an der Heiden, Matthias; Hamouda, Osamah; Haas, Walter

    2012-01-01

    Tuberculosis (TB) and HIV comorbidity is a major challenge in TB prevention and control but difficult to assess in Germany as in other countries, where data confidentiality precludes notifying the HIV status of TB patients. We aimed to estimate the HIV-prevalence in TB patients in Germany, 2002–2009, and to characterize the HIV/TB patients demographically. Data from the long-term observational open multicentre cohort ClinSurv HIV were used to identify incident TB in HIV-positive individuals. We assessed the cohort’s coverage for the nationwide HIV-positive population by contrasting ClinSurv HIV patients under antiretroviral therapy (ART) with national HIV patient numbers derived from ART prescriptions (data by Insight Health; available for 2006–2009). The HIV-prevalence in TB patients was calculated as the number of HIV/TB cases projected for Germany over all culture-positive TB notifications. From 2002 to 2009, 298 of 15,531 HIV-positive patients enrolled in the ClinSurv HIV cohort were diagnosed with TB. A 21% cohort coverage was determined. The annual estimates of the HIV-prevalence in TB patients were on average 4.5% and ranged from 3.5% (95%CI 2.3–5.1%) in 2007 to 6.6% (95%CI 5.0–8.5%) in 2005. The most recent estimate for 2009 was 4.0% (95%CI 2.6–5.9%). The 298 HIV/TB patients were characterized by a male-to-female ratio of 2.1, by a median age of 38 years at TB diagnosis, and by 59% of the patients having a foreign origin, mainly from Subsahara Africa. We provide, to our knowledge, the first estimate of the HIV-prevalence in TB patients for Germany by joint evaluation of anonymous HIV and TB surveillance data sources. The identified level of HIV in TB patients approximates available surveillance data from neighbouring countries and indicates a non-negligible HIV/TB burden in Germany. Our estimation approach is valuable for epidemiological monitoring of HIV/TB within the current legal frameworks. PMID:23145087

  17. High prevalence of potential drug interactions affecting mycophenolic acid pharmacokinetics in nonmyeloablative hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients

    PubMed Central

    Jaklič, Alenka; Collins, Carol J.; Mrhar, Aleš; Sorror, Mohamed L.; Sandmaier, Brenda M.; Bemer, Meagan J.; Locatelli, Igor; McCune, Jeannine S.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: Mycophenolic acid (MPA) exposure is associated with clinical outcomes in hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) recipients. Various drug interaction studies, predominantly in healthy volunteers or solid organ transplant recipients, have identified medications which impact MPA pharmacokinetics. Recipients of nonmyeloablative HCT, however, have an increased burden of comorbidities, potentially increasing the number of concomitant medications and potential drug interactions (PDI) affecting MPA exposure. Thus, we sought to be the first to characterize these PDI in nonmyeloablative HCT recipients. Materials and methods: We compiled PDI affecting MPA pharmacokinetics and characterized the prevalence of PDI in nonmyeloablative HCT recipients. A comprehensive literature evaluation of four databases and PubMed was conducted to identify medications with PDI affecting MPA pharmacokinetics. Subsequently, a retrospective medication review was conducted to characterize the cumulative PDI burden, defined as the number of PDI for an individual patient over the first 21 days after allogeneic graft infusion, in 84 nonmyeloablative HCT recipients. Results: Of the 187 concomitant medications, 11 (5.9%) had a PDI affecting MPA pharmacokinetics. 87% of 84 patients had one PDI, with a median cumulative PDI burden of 2 (range 0 – 4). The most common PDI, in descending order, were cyclosporine, omeprazole and pantoprazole. Conclusion: Only a minority of medications (5.9%) have a PDI affecting MPA pharmacokinetics. However, the majority of nonmyeloablative HCT recipients had a PDI, with cyclosporine and the proton pump inhibitors being the most common. A better understanding of PDI and their management should lead to safer medication regimens for nonmyeloablative HCT recipients. PMID:23782584

  18. Clozapine-induced hypersalivation: an estimate of prevalence, severity and impact on quality of life

    PubMed Central

    Maher, Senan; Cunningham, Aoife; O’Callaghan, Niamh; Byrne, Fintan; Mc Donald, Colm; McInerney, Shane; Hallahan, Brian

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: The objective of this study was to evaluate the prevalence and severity of clozapine-induced hypersalivation, and assess the impact hypersalivation has on global functioning. Methods: Participants attending a dedicated clozapine clinic were invited to undertake a structured interview regarding their experiences of clozapine-induced hypersalivation. Two psychometric instruments to measure hypersalivation, the Nocturnal Hypersalivation Rating Scale and the Drooling Severity and Frequency Scale were used. Results: Clozapine-induced hypersalivation was experienced by 92% of participants, with nocturnal hypersalivation more prevalent compared to daytime hypersalivation (85% versus 48%). Daytime drooling was severe in 18% of cases and was present on a frequent or constant basis for 20% of individuals. Hypersalivation had at least a moderate impact on the quality of life of 15% of study participants. Conclusions: Clozapine-induced hypersalivation is the most prevalent adverse effect experienced by patients treated with clozapine and negatively impacts on quality of life, particularly if daytime drooling is present. The development of further strategies to ameliorate this adverse effect is required given the demonstrated lack of success to date in managing this condition. PMID:27354906

  19. Estimating the Burden of Acute Gastrointestinal Illness: A Pilot Study of the Prevalence and Underreporting in Saint Lucia, Eastern Caribbean

    PubMed Central

    Jaime, Alina; Mckensie, Martin; Auguste, Ava; Pérez, Enrique; Indar, Lisa

    2013-01-01

    Saint Lucia was the first country to conduct a burden of illness study in the Caribbean to determine the community prevalence and underreporting of acute gastroenteritis (AGE). A retrospective cross-sectional population survey on AGE-related illness was administered to a random sample of residents of Saint Lucia in 20 April–16 May 2008 and 6-13 December 2009 to capture the high- and low-AGE season respectively. Of the selected 1,150 individuals, 1,006 were administered the survey through face-to-face interviews (response rate 87.4%). The overall monthly prevalence of AGE was 3.9%. The yearly incidence rate was 0.52 episodes/person-year. The age-adjusted monthly prevalence was 4.6%. The highest monthly prevalence of AGE was among children aged <5 years (7.5%) and the lowest in persons aged 45-64 years (2.6%). The average number of days an individual suffered from diarrhoea was 3.8 days [range 1-21 day(s)]. Of the reported AGE cases, only seven (18%) sought medical care; however, 83% stayed at home due to the illness [(range 1-16 day(s), mean 2.5]; and 26% required other individuals to take care of them. The estimated underreporting of syndromic AGE and laboratory-confirmed foodborne disease pathogens was 81% and 99% respectively during the study period. The economic cost for treating syndromic AGE was estimated at US$ 3,892.837 per annum. This was a pilot study on the burden of illness (BOI) in the Caribbean. The results of the study should be interpreted within the limitations and challenges of this study. Lessons learnt were used for improving the implementation procedures of other BOI studies in the Caribbean.

  20. Estimating the burden of acute gastrointestinal illness: a pilot study of the prevalence and underreporting in Saint Lucia, Eastern Caribbean.

    PubMed

    Gabriel, Owen O; Jaime, Alina; Mckensie, Martin; Auguste, Ava; Pérez, Enrique; Indar, Lisa

    2013-12-01

    Saint Lucia was the first country to conduct a burden of illness study in the Caribbean to determine the community prevalence and underreporting of acute gastroenteritis (AGE). A retrospective cross-sectional population survey on AGE-related illness was administered to a random sample of residents of Saint Lucia in 20 April-16 May 2008 and 6-13 December 2009 to capture the high- and low-AGE season respectively. Of the selected 1,150 individuals, 1,006 were administered the survey through face-to-face interviews (response rate 87.4%). The overall monthly prevalence of AGE was 3.9%. The yearly incidence rate was 0.52 episodes/person-year. The age-adjusted monthly prevalence was 4.6%. The highest monthly prevalence of AGE was among children aged < 5 years (7.5%) and the lowest in persons aged 45-64 years (2.6%). The average number of days an individual suffered from diarrhoea was 3.8 days [range 1-21 day(s)]. Of the reported AGE cases, only seven (18%) sought medical care; however, 83% stayed at home due to the illness [(range 1-16 day(s), mean 2.5]; and 26% required other individuals to take care of them. The estimated underreporting of syndromic AGE and laboratory-confirmed foodborne disease pathogens was 81% and 99% respectively during the study period. The economic cost for treating syndromic AGE was estimated at US$ 3,892.837 per annum. This was a pilot study on the burden of illness (BOI) in the Caribbean. The results of the study should be interpreted within the limitations and challenges of this study. Lessons learnt were used for improving the implementation procedures of other BOI studies in the Caribbean.

  1. Association between the Delta Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate and the Prevalence of Monoclonal Gammopathy of Undetermined Significance in Korean Males

    PubMed Central

    Chun, Sail; Min, Won-Ki

    2014-01-01

    Background. We investigated the association between the reduction in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and the prevalence of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) in Korean males. Methods. We enrolled 723 healthy Korean males. Serum creatinine concentration, serum electrophoresis, serum immunofixation, and the serum free light chain assay were performed. We calculated delta eGFR per year (ΔeGFR/yr). The prevalence of MGUS was compared based on the ΔeGFR/yr and age group. Results. Thirteen (1.8%) of 723 participants exhibited the monoclonal band on serum immunofixation. Prevalence of MGUS by age group was 0.00% (0/172 for 40 years), 1.63% (6/367 for 60 years), and 3.80% (7/184 for >60 years). The median decrease in ΔeGFR/yr was 5.3%. The prevalence of MGUS in participants in their 50s with >5.3% decline in ΔeGFR/yr was significantly higher than those with <5.3% decrease in ΔeGFR/yr (3.16% versus 0.00%; P = 0.049). The prevalence of MGUS in participants in their 50s with >5.3% decrease in ΔeGFR/yr was similar to that of healthy males in their 60s. Conclusion. Using the rate of reduction in ΔeGFR/yr in healthy Korean males who had their serum creatinine level checked regularly may increase the MGUS detection rate in clinical practice. PMID:24895568

  2. Cultivation and counter cultivation: does religiosity shape the relationship between television viewing and estimates of crime prevalence and assessment of victimization likelihood?

    PubMed

    Hetsroni, Amir; Lowenstein, Hila

    2013-02-01

    Religiosity may change the direction of the effect of TV viewing on assessment of the likelihood of personal victimization and estimates concerning crime prevalence. A content analysis of a representative sample of TV programming (56 hours of prime-time shows) was done to identify the most common crimes on television, followed by a survey of a representative sample of the adult public in a large urban district (778 respondents) who were asked to estimate the prevalence of these crimes and to assess the likelihood of themselves being victimized. People who defined themselves as non-religious increased their estimates of prevalence for crimes often depicted on TV, as they reported more time watching TV (ordinary cultivation effect), whereas estimates regarding the prevalence of crime and assessment of victimization likelihood among religious respondents were lower with reports of more time devoted to television viewing (counter-cultivation effect).

  3. An approximate likelihood estimator for the prevalence of infections in vectors using pools of varying sizes.

    PubMed

    Santos, James D; Dorgam, Diana

    2016-09-01

    There are several arthropods that can transmit disease to humans. To make inferences about the rate of infection of these arthropods, it is common to collect a large sample of vectors, divide them into groups (called pools), and apply a test to detect infection. This paper presents an approximate likelihood point estimator to rate of infection for pools of different sizes, when the variability of these sizes is small and the infection rate is low. The performance of this estimator was evaluated in four simulated scenarios, created from real experiments selected in the literature. The new estimator performed well in three of these scenarios. As expected, the new estimator performed poorly in the scenario with great variability in the size of the pools for some values of the parameter space. PMID:27159117

  4. Hearing-Impaired/Developmentally Disabled Persons in the United States: Definitions, Causes, Effects, and Prevalence Estimates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stewart, Larry G.

    1978-01-01

    Information is presented on the definition, causes, effects and population estimates for developmental disabilities; and a tentative hypothesis regarding the hearing impaired/developmentally disabled is set forth. (CL)

  5. Estimating the Prevalence of Sexual Function Problems: The Impact of Morbidity Criteria

    PubMed Central

    Mitchell, Kirstin R.; Jones, Kyle G.; Wellings, Kaye; Johnson, Anne M.; Graham, Cynthia A.; Datta, Jessica; Copas, Andrew J.; Bancroft, John; Sonnenberg, Pam; Macdowall, Wendy; Field, Nigel; Mercer, Catherine H.

    2016-01-01

    Establishing the clinical significance of symptoms of sexual dysfunction is challenging. To address this, the fifth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5) introduced two new morbidity criteria (duration and symptom severity) to the existing criteria of distress. This study sought to establish the impact of these three criteria on the population prevalence of sexual function problems. The data come from a national probability survey (Natsal-3) and are based on 11,509 male and female participants aged 16–74, reporting at least one sexual partner in the past year. The key outcomes were: proportion of individuals reporting proxy measures of DSM-5 problems, and the proportion of those meeting morbidity criteria. We found that among sexually active men, the prevalence of reporting one or more of four specific sexual problems was 38.2%, but 4.2% after applying the three morbidity criteria; corresponding figures for women reporting one or more of three specific sexual problems, were 22.8% and 3.6%. Just over a third of men and women reporting a problem meeting all three morbidity criteria had sought help in the last year. We conclude that the DSM-5 morbidity criteria impose a focus on clinically significant symptoms. PMID:26605494

  6. Comparison of methods for estimating the prevalence of Neozygites floridana in Tetranychus urticae populations infesting strawberries.

    PubMed

    Nordengen, I; Klingen, I

    2006-05-01

    Methods for measuring prevalence of Neozygites floridana in a Tetranychus urticae population collected from strawberries were developed and compared. T. urticae were extracted from leaves using a soapy water solution (0.5 ml washing detergent : 8 L water) and then placed into 80% alcohol for use in Methods 1 and 2. Method 1: N. floridana-sporulating T. urticae cadavers were observed and quantified under a compound microscope (40-80x). Method 2: Adult females were mounted in lactophenol cotton blue and observed for the presence or absence of N. floridana hyphal bodies under a microscope (200-400x). Method 3: Live T. urticae females were incubated at 25 degrees C and 75% RH and observed for mortality and N. floridana infection under a compound microscope (6.4-40x). Method 1 was the most time-efficient method and it also allows processing of samples as time permits. Method 2 quantified significantly higher fungal prevalence than Methods 1 and 3, but Method 2 is not considered to be reliable because hyphal bodies are difficult to detect. No significant differences were found between Methods 1 and 3.

  7. Copro prevalence and estimated risk of Entamoeba histolytica in Diarrheic patients at Beni-Suef, Egypt.

    PubMed

    Ibrahim, Shimaa S; El-Matarawy, Olfat M; Ghieth, Marwa A; Abu Sarea, Enas Y; El-Badry, Ayman A

    2015-02-01

    Amoebiasis diagnosis is usually based on microscopy that cannot differentiate pathogenic E. histolytica from morphologically identical non-pathogenic species. 194 fecal samples were collected from diarrheic &/or dysenteric patients and examined for Entamoeba complex microscopically, E. histolytica/E. dispar coproantigen using ICT and E. histolytica coproantigen using Tech lab E. histolytica II ELISA test. Entamoeba complex trophozoites/cysts, E. histolytica/E. dispar coproantigen and E. histolytica coproantigen were detected in 22.2, 14.4 and 3.6 % of samples, respectively. Microscopy and ICT method had limited sensitivity with poor PPV (9.3 and 7.1 %, respectively) and both slightly agree with ELISA test. The prevalence of E. histolytica was low (3.6 %) in studied individuals and was 14 times lower than non-pathogenic amoebae. E. histolytica detection studied individuals was positively associated with mucoid and bloody stool, which makes them disease predictors. E. histolytica fecal ELISA assay for E. histolytica detection surpassed microscopy and E. histolytica/E. dispar ICT assay. This has highlighted the need for practical non-microscopic detection methods that can differentiate between amoeba infections to avoid unnecessary and possibly harmful therapies and to determine the true prevalence and epidemiology of E. histolytica.

  8. Validation, Replication, and Sensitivity Testing of Heckman-Type Selection Models to Adjust Estimates of HIV Prevalence

    PubMed Central

    Clark, Samuel J.; Houle, Brian

    2014-01-01

    A recent study using Heckman-type selection models to adjust for non-response in the Zambia 2007 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) found a large correction in HIV prevalence for males. We aim to validate this finding, replicate the adjustment approach in other DHSs, apply the adjustment approach in an external empirical context, and assess the robustness of the technique to different adjustment approaches. We used 6 DHSs, and an HIV prevalence study from rural South Africa to validate and replicate the adjustment approach. We also developed an alternative, systematic model of selection processes and applied it to all surveys. We decomposed corrections from both approaches into rate change and age-structure change components. We are able to reproduce the adjustment approach for the 2007 Zambia DHS and derive results comparable with the original findings. We are able to replicate applying the approach in several other DHSs. The approach also yields reasonable adjustments for a survey in rural South Africa. The technique is relatively robust to how the adjustment approach is specified. The Heckman selection model is a useful tool for assessing the possibility and extent of selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates from sample surveys. PMID:25402333

  9. Use of cohort data to estimate national prevalence of transmitted drug resistance to antiretroviral drugs in Spain (2007-2012).

    PubMed

    Monge, S; Díez, M; Alvarez, M; Guillot, V; Iribarren, J A; Palacios, R; Delgado, R; Jaén, A; Blanco, J R; Domingo, P; Portilla, J; Pérez Elías, M J; Garcia, F

    2015-01-01

    Prevalence of transmitted drug resistance (pTDR) to antiretroviral drugs in Spain (2007-2012) was estimated using the CoRIS cohort, adjusting its territorial distribution and transmission route to the reference population from the Spanish Information System on New human immunodeficiency virus diagnoses. A total of 2702 patients from ten autonomous communities and with naive FASTA sequence within 6 months of human immunodeficiency virus diagnosis were selected. Weighted pTDR, estimated using the inverse probability of selection in the sample by autonomous communities and transmission group, was 8.12% (95% CI 6.44-9.80), not significantly different from unweighted pTDR. We illustrate how proportional weighting can maximize representativeness of cohort-based data, and its value to monitor pTDR at country level. PMID:25636937

  10. Association between Genetic Variations Affecting Mean Telomere Length and the Prevalence of Hypertension and Coronary Heart Disease in Koreans

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we investigated whether the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with telomere length (TL) were associated with the incidence of hypertension (HTN)/coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular risk factors in the Korean population. Data from 5,705 (ages 39–70) participants in the Korean Genome Epidemiology Study (rural Ansung and urban Ansan cohorts) were studied. Twelve SNPs known to be associated with telomere biology were tested for an association with HTN/CHD. As results, no significant associations were found between the selected TL-related SNPs and prevalence of HTN and CHD. Among non-alcohol users, subjects with minor alleles in rs1269304 and rs10936601 (TERC and LRRC34, respectively) exhibited a higher rate of CHD occurrence (odds ratio [OR], 1.862; 95% confidence intervals [CIs], 1.137, 3.049; OR, 1.855; 95% CIs, 1.111, 2.985; respectively). However, alcohol users with minor alleles in rs398652 (PELI2) were significantly associated with higher HTN prevalence (OR, 1.179; 95% CIs, 1.040, 1.336). Of the 3 SNPs related to disease outcomes, rs1296304 was significantly associated with increased levels of diastolic blood pressure (β estimate, 0.470; 95% CIs, 0.013, 0.926). The minor allele in rs398652 was significantly associated with higher levels of body mass index (OR, 0.128; 95% CIs, 0.010, 0.246) and γ-glutamyl transpeptidase (OR, 0.013; 95% CIs, 0.001, 0.024). In conclusion, there were no significant associations between the selected TL-related SNPs and the occurrence of HTN/CHD in Koreans. However, the results suggest the presence of a possible interaction between related SNPs and alcohol behavior associated with HTN/CHD occurrence. PMID:27812514

  11. How Many People have Alcohol Use Disorders? Using the Harmful Dysfunction Analysis to Reconcile Prevalence Estimates in Two Community Surveys

    PubMed Central

    Wakefield, Jerome C.; Schmitz, Mark F.

    2014-01-01

    Community prevalence rates of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) provided by epidemiological studies using DSM-based diagnostic criteria pose several challenges: the rates appear implausibly high to many epidemiologists; they do not converge across similar studies; and, due to low service utilization by those diagnosed as disordered, they yield estimates of unmet need for services so high that credibility for planning purposes is jeopardized. For example, two early community studies using DSM diagnostic criteria, the Epidemiologic Catchment Area Study (ECA) and the National Comorbidity Survey (NCS), yielded lifetime AUD prevalence rates of 14 and 24%, respectively, with NCS unmet need for services 19% of the entire population. Attempts to address these challenges by adding clinical significance requirements to diagnostic criteria have proven unsuccessful. Hypothesizing that these challenges are due to high rates of false-positive diagnoses of problem drinking as AUDs, we test an alternative approach. We use the harmful dysfunction (HD) analysis of the concept of mental disorder as a guide to construct more valid criteria within the framework of the standard out-of-control model of AUD. The proposed HD criteria require harm and dysfunction, where harm can be any negative social, personal, or physical outcome, and dysfunction requires either withdrawal symptoms or inability to stop drinking. Using HD criteria, ECA and NCS lifetime prevalences converge to much-reduced rates of 6 and 6.8%, respectively. Due to higher service utilization rates, NCS lifetime unmet need is reduced to 3.4%. Service use and duration comparisons suggest that HD criteria possess increased diagnostic validity. Moreover, HD criteria eliminate 90% of transient teenage drinking from disorder status. The HD version of the out-of-control model thus potentially resolves the three classic prevalence challenges while offering a more rigorous approach to distinguishing AUDs from problematic drinking. PMID

  12. Genetic selection to increase bone strength affects prevalence of keel bone damage and egg parameters in commercially housed laying hens.

    PubMed

    Stratmann, A; Fröhlich, E K F; Gebhardt-Henrich, S G; Harlander-Matauschek, A; Würbel, H; Toscano, M J

    2016-05-01

    The prevalence of keel bone damage as well as external egg parameters of 2 pure lines divergently selected for high (H) and low (L) bone strength were investigated in 2 aviary systems under commercial conditions. A standard LSL hybrid was used as a reference group. Birds were kept mixed per genetic line (77 hens of the H and L line and 201 or 206 hens of the LSL line, respectively, per pen) in 8 pens of 2 aviary systems differing in design. Keel bone status and body mass of 20 focal hens per line and pen were assessed at 17, 18, 23, 30, 36, 43, 52, and 63 wk of age. External egg parameters (i.e., egg mass, eggshell breaking strength, thickness, and mass) were measured using 10 eggs per line at both 38 and 57 wk of age. Body parameters (i.e. tarsus and third primary wing feather length to calculate index of wing loading) were recorded at 38 wk of age and mortality per genetic line throughout the laying cycle. Bone mineral density (BMD) of 15 keel bones per genetic line was measured after slaughter to confirm assignment of the experimental lines. We found a greater BMD in the H compared with the L and LSL lines. Fewer keel bone fractures and deviations, a poorer external egg quality, as well as a lower index of wing loading were found in the H compared with the L line. Mortality was lower and production parameters (e.g., laying performance) were higher in the LSL line compared with the 2 experimental lines. Aviary design affected prevalence of keel bone damage, body mass, and mortality. We conclude that selection of specific bone traits associated with bone strength as well as the related differences in body morphology (i.e., lower index of wing loading) have potential to reduce keel bone damage in commercial settings. Also, the housing environment (i.e., aviary design) may have additive effects. PMID:26944960

  13. Genetic selection to increase bone strength affects prevalence of keel bone damage and egg parameters in commercially housed laying hens.

    PubMed

    Stratmann, A; Fröhlich, E K F; Gebhardt-Henrich, S G; Harlander-Matauschek, A; Würbel, H; Toscano, M J

    2016-05-01

    The prevalence of keel bone damage as well as external egg parameters of 2 pure lines divergently selected for high (H) and low (L) bone strength were investigated in 2 aviary systems under commercial conditions. A standard LSL hybrid was used as a reference group. Birds were kept mixed per genetic line (77 hens of the H and L line and 201 or 206 hens of the LSL line, respectively, per pen) in 8 pens of 2 aviary systems differing in design. Keel bone status and body mass of 20 focal hens per line and pen were assessed at 17, 18, 23, 30, 36, 43, 52, and 63 wk of age. External egg parameters (i.e., egg mass, eggshell breaking strength, thickness, and mass) were measured using 10 eggs per line at both 38 and 57 wk of age. Body parameters (i.e. tarsus and third primary wing feather length to calculate index of wing loading) were recorded at 38 wk of age and mortality per genetic line throughout the laying cycle. Bone mineral density (BMD) of 15 keel bones per genetic line was measured after slaughter to confirm assignment of the experimental lines. We found a greater BMD in the H compared with the L and LSL lines. Fewer keel bone fractures and deviations, a poorer external egg quality, as well as a lower index of wing loading were found in the H compared with the L line. Mortality was lower and production parameters (e.g., laying performance) were higher in the LSL line compared with the 2 experimental lines. Aviary design affected prevalence of keel bone damage, body mass, and mortality. We conclude that selection of specific bone traits associated with bone strength as well as the related differences in body morphology (i.e., lower index of wing loading) have potential to reduce keel bone damage in commercial settings. Also, the housing environment (i.e., aviary design) may have additive effects.

  14. Estimates of the prevalence of anomalous signal losses in the Yellow Sea derived from acoustic and oceanographic computer model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chin-Bing, Stanley A.; King, David B.; Warn-Varnas, Alex C.; Lamb, Kevin G.; Hawkins, James A.; Teixeira, Marvi

    2002-05-01

    The results from collocated oceanographic and acoustic simulations in a region of the Yellow Sea near the Shandong peninsula have been presented [Chin-Bing et al., J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 108, 2577 (2000)]. In that work, the tidal flow near the peninsula was used to initialize a 2.5-dimensional ocean model [K. G. Lamb, J. Geophys. Res. 99, 843-864 (1994)] that subsequently generated internal solitary waves (solitons). The validity of these soliton simulations was established by matching satellite imagery taken over the region. Acoustic propagation simulations through this soliton field produced results similar to the anomalous signal loss measured by Zhou, Zhang, and Rogers [J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 90, 2042-2054 (1991)]. Analysis of the acoustic interactions with the solitons also confirmed the hypothesis that the loss mechanism involved acoustic mode coupling. Recently we have attempted to estimate the prevalence of these anomalous signal losses in this region. These estimates were made from simulating acoustic effects over an 80 hour space-time evolution of soliton packets. Examples will be presented that suggest the conditions necessary for anomalous signal loss may be more prevalent than previously thought. [Work supported by ONR/NRL and by a High Performance Computing DoD grant.

  15. Estimating the prevalence of organic brain dysfunction in maximum-security forensic psychiatric patients.

    PubMed

    Martell, D A

    1992-05-01

    This is a descriptive study of 50 randomly selected male patients retained in a maximum-security state hospital for mentally disordered offenders. Data regarding the prevalence of several indicators of potential organic brain dysfunction are presented, including: (1) a diagnosis of any organic brain disorder, (2) a history of severe head injury with loss of consciousness, (3) a history of seizure activity, (4) evidence of cognitive impairment, (5) abnormal neurological findings, and (6) other relevant neurodiagnostic or historical findings. Results show that multiple indicators of potential brain dysfunction were present in 64% of the cases. At least one indicator of potential brain dysfunction was present for 84% of the subjects. Subjects with a diagnosis or history suggesting brain dysfunction were significantly more likely to have been indicted for violent criminal charges (p = 0.01). Implications of these findings for clinical treatment and forensic science decision-making are discussed.

  16. An Estimate of the Incidence and Prevalence of Stroke in Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Adeloye, Davies

    2014-01-01

    Background Stroke is increasingly becoming a challenging public health issue in Africa, and the non-availability of data has limited research output and consequently the response to this burden. This study aimed to estimate the incidence and prevalence of stroke in Africa in 2009 towards improved policy response and management of the disease in the region. Methods A systematic search of Medline, EMBASE and Global Health for original population-based or hospital-based studies on stroke was conducted. A random effect meta-analysis was conducted on crude stroke incidence and prevalence rates, and a meta-regression-like epidemiological model was applied on all data points. The fitted curve generated from the model was used to estimate incident cases of stroke and number of stroke survivors in Africa at midpoints of the United Nation population 5-year age groups for the year 2009. Results The literature search yielded a total of 1227 studies. 19 studies from 10 African countries were selected. 483 thousand new stroke cases among people aged 15 years or more were estimated in Africa in 2009, equivalent to 81.2 (13.2–94.9)/100,000 person years. A total of 1.89 million stroke survivors among people aged 15 years or more were estimated in Africa in 2009, with a prevalence of 317.3 (314.0–748.2)/100000 population. Comparable figures for the year 2013 based on the same rates would amount to 535 thousand (87.0–625.3) new stroke cases and 2.09 million (2.06–4.93) stroke survivors, suggesting an increase of 10.8% and 9.6% of incident stroke cases and stroke survivors respectively, attributable to population growth and ageing between 2009 and 2013. Conclusion The findings of this review suggest the burden of stroke in Africa is high and still increasing. There is need for more research on stroke and other vascular risk factors towards instituting appropriate policy, and effective preventive and management measures. PMID:24967899

  17. Bayesian Estimation of the True Prevalence and of the Diagnostic Test Sensitivity and Specificity of Enteropathogenic Yersinia in Finnish Pig Serum Samples

    PubMed Central

    Vilar, M. J.; Ranta, J.; Virtanen, S.; Korkeala, H.

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian analysis was used to estimate the pig's and herd's true prevalence of enteropathogenic Yersinia in serum samples collected from Finnish pig farms. The sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test were also estimated for the commercially available ELISA which is used for antibody detection against enteropathogenic Yersinia. The Bayesian analysis was performed in two steps; the first step estimated the prior true prevalence of enteropathogenic Yersinia with data obtained from a systematic review of the literature. In the second step, data of the apparent prevalence (cross-sectional study data), prior true prevalence (first step), and estimated sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods were used for building the Bayesian model. The true prevalence of Yersinia in slaughter-age pigs was 67.5% (95% PI 63.2–70.9). The true prevalence of Yersinia in sows was 74.0% (95% PI 57.3–82.4). The estimates of sensitivity and specificity values of the ELISA were 79.5% and 96.9%. PMID:26539540

  18. Bayesian Estimation of the True Prevalence and of the Diagnostic Test Sensitivity and Specificity of Enteropathogenic Yersinia in Finnish Pig Serum Samples.

    PubMed

    Vilar, M J; Ranta, J; Virtanen, S; Korkeala, H

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian analysis was used to estimate the pig's and herd's true prevalence of enteropathogenic Yersinia in serum samples collected from Finnish pig farms. The sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test were also estimated for the commercially available ELISA which is used for antibody detection against enteropathogenic Yersinia. The Bayesian analysis was performed in two steps; the first step estimated the prior true prevalence of enteropathogenic Yersinia with data obtained from a systematic review of the literature. In the second step, data of the apparent prevalence (cross-sectional study data), prior true prevalence (first step), and estimated sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods were used for building the Bayesian model. The true prevalence of Yersinia in slaughter-age pigs was 67.5% (95% PI 63.2-70.9). The true prevalence of Yersinia in sows was 74.0% (95% PI 57.3-82.4). The estimates of sensitivity and specificity values of the ELISA were 79.5% and 96.9%.

  19. A Novel Statistical Model to Estimate Host Genetic Effects Affecting Disease Transmission

    PubMed Central

    Anacleto, Osvaldo; Garcia-Cortés, Luis Alberto; Lipschutz-Powell, Debby; Woolliams, John A.; Doeschl-Wilson, Andrea B.

    2015-01-01

    There is increasing recognition that genetic diversity can affect the spread of diseases, potentially affecting plant and livestock disease control as well as the emergence of human disease outbreaks. Nevertheless, even though computational tools can guide the control of infectious diseases, few epidemiological models can simultaneously accommodate the inherent individual heterogeneity in multiple infectious disease traits influencing disease transmission, such as the frequently modeled propensity to become infected and infectivity, which describes the host ability to transmit the infection to susceptible individuals. Furthermore, current quantitative genetic models fail to fully capture the heritable variation in host infectivity, mainly because they cannot accommodate the nonlinear infection dynamics underlying epidemiological data. We present in this article a novel statistical model and an inference method to estimate genetic parameters associated with both host susceptibility and infectivity. Our methodology combines quantitative genetic models of social interactions with stochastic processes to model the random, nonlinear, and dynamic nature of infections and uses adaptive Bayesian computational techniques to estimate the model parameters. Results using simulated epidemic data show that our model can accurately estimate heritabilities and genetic risks not only of susceptibility but also of infectivity, therefore exploring a trait whose heritable variation is currently ignored in disease genetics and can greatly influence the spread of infectious diseases. Our proposed methodology offers potential impacts in areas such as livestock disease control through selective breeding and also in predicting and controlling the emergence of disease outbreaks in human populations. PMID:26405030

  20. Estimating the Prevalence of Injection Drug Users in the U.S. and in Large U.S. Metropolitan Areas from 1992 to 2002

    PubMed Central

    Friedman, Samuel R.; Cooper, Hannah L.F.; Flom, Peter L.; Tempalski, Barbara; Gostnell, Karla

    2008-01-01

    This paper estimates the prevalence of current injection drug users (IDUs) in 96 large U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) annually from 1992 to 2002. Multiplier/allocation methods were used to estimate the prevalence of injectors because confidentiality restrictions precluded the use of other commonly used estimation methods, such as capture–recapture. We first estimated the number of IDUs in the U.S. each year from 1992 to 2002 and then apportioned these estimates to MSAs using multiplier methods. Four different types of data indicating drug injection were used to allocate national annual totals to MSAs, creating four distinct series of estimates of the number of injectors in each MSA. Each series was smoothed over time; and the mean value of the four component estimates was taken as the best estimate of IDUs for that MSA and year (with the range of component estimates indicating the degree of uncertainty in the estimates). Annual cross-sectional correlations of the MSA-level IDU estimates with measures of unemployment, hepatitis C mortality prevalence, and poisoning mortality prevalence were used to validate our estimates. MSA-level IDU estimates correlated moderately well with validators, demonstrating adequate convergence validity. Overall, the number of IDUs per 10,000 persons aged 15–64 years varied from 30 to 348 across MSAs (mean 126.9, standard deviation 65.3, median 106.6, interquartile range 78–162) in 1992 and from 37 to 336 across MSAs (mean 110.6, standard deviation 57.7, median 96.1, interquartile range 67–134) in 2002. A multilevel model showed that overall, across the 96 MSAs, the number of injectors declined each year until 2000, after which the IDU prevalence began to increase. Despite the variation in component estimates and methodological and component data set limitations, these local IDU prevalence estimates may be used to assess: (1) predictors of change in IDU prevalence; (2) differing IDU trends between localities; (3) the

  1. The factors affecting on estimation of carbohydrate content of meals in carbohydrate counting

    PubMed Central

    Kawamura, Tomoyuki; Takamura, Chihiro; Hirose, Masakazu; Hashimoto, Tomomi; Higashide, Takashi; Kashihara, Yoneo; Hashimura, Kayako; Shintaku, Haruo

    2015-01-01

    Abstract. The objective of this study was to identify factors affecting on errors in carbohydrate (CHO) content estimation during CHO counting. Thirty-seven type 1 diabetes patients and 22 of their parents and 28 physicians/dieticians were enrolled in this study. CHO counting was counted in “Carb”, with 1 Carb defined as 10 g of CHO. To evaluate the accuracy of CHO counting, 80 real-size photographs of cooked meals were presented to the subjects for Carb estimation. Carbs tended to be overestimated for foods containing relatively small amounts of Carbs. On the other hands, Carbs tended to be underestimated for foods with higher than 6 Carbs. Accurate estimation of the Carbs in food containing a large amount of rice was particularly difficult even in the subjects having the CHO counting experience. The Carb contents of high-calorie foods such as meats, fried foods, and desserts tended to be overestimated. This error was smaller in subjects having the CHO counting experience. In conclusion, misunderstanding of high-calorie dishes containing high amounts of CHO was observed in inexperienced subjects, indicating the efficacy of the current methodology of CHO counting. On the other hand it was difficult even for experienced subjects to assess the amount of seasoned rice, suggesting the need for a new methodology for accurate estimation. PMID:26568656

  2. The factors affecting on estimation of carbohydrate content of meals in carbohydrate counting.

    PubMed

    Kawamura, Tomoyuki; Takamura, Chihiro; Hirose, Masakazu; Hashimoto, Tomomi; Higashide, Takashi; Kashihara, Yoneo; Hashimura, Kayako; Shintaku, Haruo

    2015-10-01

    The objective of this study was to identify factors affecting on errors in carbohydrate (CHO) content estimation during CHO counting. Thirty-seven type 1 diabetes patients and 22 of their parents and 28 physicians/dieticians were enrolled in this study. CHO counting was counted in "Carb", with 1 Carb defined as 10 g of CHO. To evaluate the accuracy of CHO counting, 80 real-size photographs of cooked meals were presented to the subjects for Carb estimation. Carbs tended to be overestimated for foods containing relatively small amounts of Carbs. On the other hands, Carbs tended to be underestimated for foods with higher than 6 Carbs. Accurate estimation of the Carbs in food containing a large amount of rice was particularly difficult even in the subjects having the CHO counting experience. The Carb contents of high-calorie foods such as meats, fried foods, and desserts tended to be overestimated. This error was smaller in subjects having the CHO counting experience. In conclusion, misunderstanding of high-calorie dishes containing high amounts of CHO was observed in inexperienced subjects, indicating the efficacy of the current methodology of CHO counting. On the other hand it was difficult even for experienced subjects to assess the amount of seasoned rice, suggesting the need for a new methodology for accurate estimation. PMID:26568656

  3. Demography of forest birds in Panama: How do transients affect estimates of survival rates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brawn, J.D.; Karr, J.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Robinson, W.D.; Adams, N.J.; Slotow, R.H.

    1998-01-01

    Estimates of annual survival rates for a multispecies sample of neotropical birds from Panama have proven controversial. Traditionally, tropical birds were thought to have high survival rates for their size, but analyses by Kart et al. (1990. Am. Nat. 136:277-91) contradicted that view, suggesting tropical birds may not have systematically high survival rates. A persistent criticism of that study has been that the estimates were biased by transient birds captured only once as they passed through the area being sampled. New models that formally adjust for transient individuals have been developed since 1990. Preliminary analyses using these models indicate that, despite some variation among species, overall estimates of survival rates for understory birds in Panama are not strongly affected by adjustments for transients. We also compare estimates of survival rates based on mark-recapture models with observations of colour-marked birds. The demographic traits of birds in the tropics (and elsewhere) vary within and among species according to combinations of historical and ongoing ecological factors. Understanding sources of this variation is the challenge for future work.

  4. Misreporting of dietary intake affects estimated nutrient intakes in low-income Spanish-speaking women.

    PubMed

    Banna, Jinan C; Fialkowski, Marie K; Townsend, Marilyn S

    2015-07-01

    Misreporting of dietary intake affects the validity of data collected and conclusions drawn in studies exploring diet and health outcomes. One consequence of misreporting is biological implausibility. Little is known regarding how accounting for biological implausibility of reported intake affects nutrient intake estimates in Hispanics, a rapidly growing demographic in the United States. Our study explores the effect of accounting for plausibility on nutrient intake estimates in a sample of Mexican-American women in northern California in 2008. Nutrient intakes are compared with Dietary Reference Intake recommendations, and intakes of Mexican-American women in a national survey are presented as a reference. Eighty-two women provided three 24-hour recalls. Reported energy intakes were classified as biologically plausible or implausible using the reported energy intakes to total energy expenditure cutoff of <0.76 or >1.24, with low-active physical activity levels used to estimate total energy expenditure. Differences in the means of nutrient intakes between implausible (n=36) and plausible (n=46) reporters of energy intake were examined by bivariate linear regression. Estimated energy, protein, cholesterol, dietary fiber, and vitamin E intakes were significantly higher in plausible reporters than implausible. There was a significant difference between the proportions of plausible vs implausible reporters meeting recommendations for several nutrients, with a larger proportion of plausible reporters meeting recommendations. Further research related to misreporting in Hispanic populations is warranted to explore the causes and effects of misreporting in studies measuring dietary intake, as well as actions to be taken to prevent or account for this issue.

  5. Misreporting of Dietary Intake Affects Estimated Nutrient Intakes in Low-Income Spanish-Speaking Women

    PubMed Central

    Banna, Jinan C.; Fialkowski, Marie K.; Townsend, Marilyn S.

    2015-01-01

    Misreporting of dietary intake affects the validity of data collected and conclusions drawn in studies exploring diet and health outcomes. One consequence of misreporting is biological implausibility. Little is known regarding how accounting for biological implausibility of reported intake affects nutrient intake estimates in Hispanics, a rapidly growing demographic in the United States. Our study explores the effect of accounting for plausibility on nutrient intake estimates in a sample of Mexican-American women in northern California in 2008. Nutrient intakes are compared with Dietary Reference Intake recommendations, and intakes of Mexican-American women in a national survey are presented as a reference. Eighty-two women provided three 24-hour recalls. Reported energy intakes were classified as biologically plausible or implausible using the reported energy intakes to total energy expenditure cutoff of <0.76 or >1.24, with low-active physical activity levels used to estimate total energy expenditure. Differences in the means of nutrient intakes between implausible (n=36) and plausible (n=46) reporters of energy intake were examined by bivariate linear regression. Estimated energy, protein, cholesterol, dietary fiber, and vitamin E intakes were significantly higher in plausible reporters than implausible. There was a significant difference between the proportions of plausible vs implausible reporters meeting recommendations for several nutrients, with a larger proportion of plausible reporters meeting recommendations. Further research related to misreporting in Hispanic populations is warranted to explore the causes and effects of misreporting in studies measuring dietary intake, as well as actions to be taken to prevent or account for this issue. PMID:25132121

  6. Factor structure and reliability of the childhood trauma questionnaire and prevalence estimates of trauma for male and female street youth.

    PubMed

    Forde, David R; Baron, Stephen W; Scher, Christine D; Stein, Murray B

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the psychometric properties of the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire short form (CTQ-SF) with street youth who have run away or been expelled from their homes (N = 397). Internal reliability coefficients for the five clinical scales ranged from .65 to .95. Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) was used to test the five-factor structure of the scales yielding acceptable fit for the total sample. Additional multigroup analyses were performed to consider items by gender. Results provided only evidence of weak factorial invariance. Constrained models showed invariance in configuration, factor loadings, and factor covariances but failed for equality of intercepts. Mean trauma scores for street youth tended to fall in the moderate to severe range on all abuse/neglect clinical scales. Females reported higher levels of abuse and neglect. Prevalence of child maltreatment of individual forms was very high with 98% of street youth reporting one or more forms; 27.4% of males and 48.9% of females reported all five forms. Results of this study support the viability of the CTQ-SF for screening maltreatment in a highly vulnerable street population. Caution is recommended when comparing prevalence estimates for male and female street youth given the failure of the strong factorial multigroup model.

  7. Fitting HIV Prevalence 1981 Onwards for Three Indian States Using the Goals Model and the Estimation and Projection Package

    PubMed Central

    Bhatnagar, Tarun; Dutta, Tapati; Stover, John; Godbole, Sheela; Sahu, Damodar; Boopathi, Kangusamy; Bembalkar, Shilpa; Singh, Kh. Jitenkumar; Goyal, Rajat; Pandey, Arvind; Mehendale, Sanjay M.

    2016-01-01

    Models are designed to provide evidence for strategic program planning by examining the impact of different interventions on projected HIV incidence. We employed the Goals Model to fit the HIV epidemic curves in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu states of India where HIV epidemic is considered to have matured and in a declining phase. Input data in the Goals Model consisted of demographic, epidemiological, transmission-related and risk group wise behavioral parameters. The HIV prevalence curves generated in the Goals Model for each risk group in the three states were compared with the epidemic curves generated by the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) that the national program is routinely using. In all the three states, the HIV prevalence trends for high-risk populations simulated by the Goals Model matched well with those derived using state-level HIV surveillance data in the EPP. However, trends for the low- and medium-risk populations differed between the two models. This highlights the need to generate more representative and robust data in these sub-populations and consider some structural changes in the modeling equation and parameters in the Goals Model to effectively use it to assess the impact of future strategies of HIV control in various sub-populations in India at the sub-national level. PMID:27711212

  8. Exonic Splicing Mutations Are More Prevalent than Currently Estimated and Can Be Predicted by Using In Silico Tools

    PubMed Central

    Soukarieh, Omar; Gaildrat, Pascaline; Hamieh, Mohamad; Drouet, Aurélie; Baert-Desurmont, Stéphanie; Frébourg, Thierry; Tosi, Mario; Martins, Alexandra

    2016-01-01

    The identification of a causal mutation is essential for molecular diagnosis and clinical management of many genetic disorders. However, even if next-generation exome sequencing has greatly improved the detection of nucleotide changes, the biological interpretation of most exonic variants remains challenging. Moreover, particular attention is typically given to protein-coding changes often neglecting the potential impact of exonic variants on RNA splicing. Here, we used the exon 10 of MLH1, a gene implicated in hereditary cancer, as a model system to assess the prevalence of RNA splicing mutations among all single-nucleotide variants identified in a given exon. We performed comprehensive minigene assays and analyzed patient’s RNA when available. Our study revealed a staggering number of splicing mutations in MLH1 exon 10 (77% of the 22 analyzed variants), including mutations directly affecting splice sites and, particularly, mutations altering potential splicing regulatory elements (ESRs). We then used this thoroughly characterized dataset, together with experimental data derived from previous studies on BRCA1, BRCA2, CFTR and NF1, to evaluate the predictive power of 3 in silico approaches recently described as promising tools for pinpointing ESR-mutations. Our results indicate that ΔtESRseq and ΔHZEI-based approaches not only discriminate which variants affect splicing, but also predict the direction and severity of the induced splicing defects. In contrast, the ΔΨ-based approach did not show a compelling predictive power. Our data indicates that exonic splicing mutations are more prevalent than currently appreciated and that they can now be predicted by using bioinformatics methods. These findings have implications for all genetically-caused diseases. PMID:26761715

  9. A method for estimating the effective number of loci affecting a quantitative character.

    PubMed

    Slatkin, Montgomery

    2013-11-01

    A likelihood method is introduced that jointly estimates the number of loci and the additive effect of alleles that account for the genetic variance of a normally distributed quantitative character in a randomly mating population. The method assumes that measurements of the character are available from one or both parents and an arbitrary number of full siblings. The method uses the fact, first recognized by Karl Pearson in 1904, that the variance of a character among offspring depends on both the parental phenotypes and on the number of loci. Simulations show that the method performs well provided that data from a sufficient number of families (on the order of thousands) are available. This method assumes that the loci are in Hardy-Weinberg and linkage equilibrium but does not assume anything about the linkage relationships. It performs equally well if all loci are on the same non-recombining chromosome provided they are in linkage equilibrium. The method can be adapted to take account of loci already identified as being associated with the character of interest. In that case, the method estimates the number of loci not already known to affect the character. The method applied to measurements of crown-rump length in 281 family trios in a captive colony of African green monkeys (Chlorocebus aethiopus sabaeus) estimates the number of loci to be 112 and the additive effect to be 0.26 cm. A parametric bootstrap analysis shows that a rough confidence interval has a lower bound of 14 loci. PMID:23973416

  10. Factors affecting the estimated probabilistic acute dietary exposure to captan from apple consumption.

    PubMed

    Zentai, A; Sali, J; Szabó, I J; Szeitzné-Szabó, M; Ambrus, A; Vásárhelyi, A

    2013-01-01

    The effect of the number of pesticide residue values below the LOQ/LOD of analytical methods, the variability of residues in individual fruits, mass of fruit units and the number of bootstrap iterations was studied on the probabilistically estimated acute exposure of consumers. The 4720 daily apple consumption data and the results of 1239 apple sample analyses for captan residues, performed within the Hungarian monitoring programme between 2005 and 2011, were used in this study as model matrix. Up to about 95th percentile exposure (µg/(kg bw·day)), simply multiplying each residue in composite samples with each consumption value gave similar estimates to those obtained with the complex procedure taking also into account the mass of and residues in individual fruits. However, the exposure above the 95th percentile calculated with the complex procedure gradually increased with increasing percentile level compared to the simple procedure. Including the high number of non-detects reduced the estimated exposure, which was the highest when only the residues measured in treated fruits were taken into account. The number of bootstrap iterations between 100 and 10,000 did not significantly affect the calculated exposure. The 99.99th percentile exposure amounted to 17.9% of the acute reference dose of 300 µg/(kg bw·day) for women of childbearing age.

  11. How errors in the calibration of GRACE accelerometers affect the estimates of temporal gravity fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tregoning, P.; McClusky, S.; Purcell, A. P.; McQueen, H.

    2015-12-01

    Non-gravitational accelerations acting on each of the GRACE satellites are measured in the along-track, cross-track and radial directions by the accelerometers onboard each satellite. The calibration of the observed non-gravitational accelerations requires determining a scaling factor and (at least) an offset for the observations in each of the three directions. We demonstrate in this presentation how small errors in the scale factors used to calibrate the accelerometer observations affect the noise level in the estimated temporal gravity field. We performed a parameter space search to find the optimal scale factors that generated the smallest prefit range-rate residuals and found that we can model the satellite orbits without the use of any empirical parameters, whilst still being able to identify the temporal gravity field signal in the prefit KBRR residuals. We will describe some physical conditions when the satellites are in the shadow of the Earth that we use to constrain the estimates of calibration biases and scales and show how the noise level of the estimated temporal gravity field varies with and without the use of the optimal calibration values for the accelerometer observations. A similar approach will be both required and effective to calibrate the accelerometers onboard the GRACE Follow-On mission.

  12. Using hepatitis C prevalence to estimate HIV epidemic potential among people who inject drugs in the Middle East and North Africa

    PubMed Central

    Mumtaz, Ghina R.; Weiss, Helen A.; Vickerman, Peter; Larke, Natasha; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: The objective of this study is to understand the association between HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) among people who inject drugs (PWIDs) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and to estimate HIV epidemic potential among PWIDs using HCV prevalence. Design/methods: Using data from a systematic review of HIV and HCV among PWID in MENA, we conducted two analyses, stratified by HIV epidemic state: a meta-analysis of the risk ratio of HCV to HIV prevalence (RRHCV/HIV) using DerSimonian-Laird random-effects models, and multivariable linear regression predicting log HIV prevalence. The HCV-HIV association from both analyses was used to estimate HIV prevalence at endemic equilibrium. We compared predicted with current HIV prevalence to classify HIV epidemic potential at country-level as low, medium or high, using predefined criteria. Results: The review identified 88 HCV prevalence measures among PWID in MENA, of which 54 had a paired HIV prevalence measure. The pooled RRHCV/HIV were 16, 4 and 3 in low-level, emerging and established HIV epidemics, respectively. There was a significant linear relationship between HCV and HIV at endemic equilibrium (P = 0.002). The predicted endemic HIV prevalence ranged between 8% (Tunisia) and 22% (Pakistan). Of the nine countries with data, five have high and three medium HIV epidemic potential. Only one country, Pakistan, appears to have reached saturation. Conclusion: HCV prevalence could be a predictor of future endemic HIV prevalence. In MENA, we predict that there will be further HIV epidemic growth among PWID. The proposed methodology can identify PWID populations that should be prioritized for HIV prevention interventions. PMID:26372281

  13. Alternative Methods for Defining Osteoarthritis and the Impact on Estimating Prevalence in a US Population-Based Survey

    PubMed Central

    Cisternas, Miriam G.; Murphy, Louise; Sacks, Jeffrey J.; Solomon, Daniel H.; Pasta, David J.; Helmick, Charles G.

    2015-01-01

    Objective Provide a contemporary estimate of osteoarthritis (OA) by comparing accuracy and prevalence of alternative definitions of OA. Methods The Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) household component (HC) records respondent-reported medical conditions as open-ended responses; professional coders translate these responses into ICD-9-CM codes for the medical conditions files. Using these codes and other data from the MEPS-HC medical conditions files, we constructed three case definitions of OA and assessed them against medical provider diagnoses of ICD-9-CM 715 [osteoarthrosis and allied disorders] in a MEPS subsample. The three definitions were: 1) strict = ICD-9-CM 715; 2) expanded = ICD-9-CM 715, 716 [other and unspecified arthropathies], OR 719 [other and unspecified disorders of joint]); and 3) probable = strict OR expanded + respondent-reported prior diagnosis of OA or other arthritis excluding rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Results Sensitivity and specificity of the three definitions were: strict – 34.6% and 97.5%; expanded – 73.8% and 90.5%; and probable – 62.9% and 93.5%. Conclusion The strict definition for OA (ICD-9-CM 715) excludes many individuals with OA. The probable definition of OA has the optimal combination of sensitivity and specificity relative to the two other MEPS-based definitions and yields a national annual estimate of 30.8 million adults with OA (13.4% of US adult population) for 2008 – 2011. PMID:26315529

  14. Estimating dietary micronutrient supply and the prevalence of inadequate intakes from national Food Balance Sheets in the South Asia regiona.

    PubMed

    Mark, Henry E; Houghton, Lisa A; Gibson, Rosalind S; Monterrosa, Eva; Kraemer, Klaus

    2016-01-01

    Micronutrient deficiencies continue to be a major public health concern worldwide with many South Asian countries suffering a significant proportion of the global burden. A lack of nationally representative data on micronutrient deficiencies hampers sustained action to address the problem. Using data on the national food supply produced by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, and international food composition tables, the present study estimated the prevalence of inadequacy of seven micronutrients (vitamin A, thiamine, riboflavin, folate, vitamin B-12, zinc and calcium) in seven South Asian countries--Bangladesh, India, Iran, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The estimated average requirement cut-point method was employed to determine the likelihood of inadequate micronutrient intakes. We report multiple micronutrient inadequacies in the food supply in the region, especially in the low and lower-middle income countries. Of the seven micronutrients investigated, calcium had the highest risk levels of inadequacy. Folate, riboflavin, vitamin B-12 and zinc were also deemed to be at high risk of inadequacy, although results differed markedly between countries. Various strategies to combat micronutrient deficiencies are currently underway in these countries. In order to facilitate the implementation of these efforts, the collection of nationally representative nutritional assessment survey data are urgently required to ascertain the true burden of micronutrient malnutrition. PMID:27222421

  15. Sediment quality thresholds: Estimates from hockey stick regression of liver lesion prevalence in English sole (Pleuronectes vetulus)

    SciTech Connect

    Horness, B.H.; Lomax, D.P.; Johnson, L.L.; Myers, M.S.; Pierce, S.M.; Collier, T.K.

    1998-01-01

    Comprehensive, integrative assessments of coastal sediment quality are best effected by using large, diverse data sets that include measures of biological dysfunction observed in association with chronic exposure to sediment contaminants. Under the auspices of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration`s National Status and Trends Program, the National Benthic Surveillance Project accumulated a database of synoptic sediment contaminant concentrations and indices of biological effects that were measured in indigenous animals collected during field surveys conducted from 1984 to 1994. This compilation of data provided the opportunity to develop a new approach for determining sediment quality criteria to add to the current repertoire of environmental assessment tools. Using a two-segment hockey stick regression, statistically significant chemical thresholds of biological effects were estimated for hepatic lesion prevalences in English sole (Pleuronectes vetulus, formerly Parophrys vetulus) in relation to sediment concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. These threshold estimates are notably lower than many of those reported for other techniques. Application of this relatively simple dose-response model to subacute, chronic effects that are involved in pepatocarcinogenesis and associated with sediment toxicant content (1) reflects the link between toxicopathic disease progression and conditions observed in benthic fish exposed to contaminants and (2) provides endpoints for assessing sediment quality contaminant concentrations that are not necessarily acutely fatal but may have long-term health implications for populations that are chronically exposed.

  16. Estimating dietary micronutrient supply and the prevalence of inadequate intakes from national Food Balance Sheets in the South Asia regiona.

    PubMed

    Mark, Henry E; Houghton, Lisa A; Gibson, Rosalind S; Monterrosa, Eva; Kraemer, Klaus

    2016-01-01

    Micronutrient deficiencies continue to be a major public health concern worldwide with many South Asian countries suffering a significant proportion of the global burden. A lack of nationally representative data on micronutrient deficiencies hampers sustained action to address the problem. Using data on the national food supply produced by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, and international food composition tables, the present study estimated the prevalence of inadequacy of seven micronutrients (vitamin A, thiamine, riboflavin, folate, vitamin B-12, zinc and calcium) in seven South Asian countries--Bangladesh, India, Iran, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The estimated average requirement cut-point method was employed to determine the likelihood of inadequate micronutrient intakes. We report multiple micronutrient inadequacies in the food supply in the region, especially in the low and lower-middle income countries. Of the seven micronutrients investigated, calcium had the highest risk levels of inadequacy. Folate, riboflavin, vitamin B-12 and zinc were also deemed to be at high risk of inadequacy, although results differed markedly between countries. Various strategies to combat micronutrient deficiencies are currently underway in these countries. In order to facilitate the implementation of these efforts, the collection of nationally representative nutritional assessment survey data are urgently required to ascertain the true burden of micronutrient malnutrition.

  17. A humanitarian preparedness toolbox: estimating flood affected figures and exposure of livelihoods to future floods events, using freely available datasets.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paron, Paolo; von Hagen, Craig; Peppino Disperati, Stefano; Hermansyah, Budi; Shaheen, Imra; Jan, Qasim; Berloffa, Andrea; Khan, Ruby; Fakhre, Alam

    2013-04-01

    Pakistan is highly disaster-prone, with three major flood disasters occurred in the past three years, yet major losses are not inevitable. Farming-based families still struggling to recover from 2010 and 2011 floods have again faced another bad monsoon season in 2012. Meanwhile, the likelihood of yet more natural disasters in the future is high as the phenomenon of climate change is increasing the prevalence of extreme weather conditions. Even with less rainfall, the risk of flooding this year remains high, while many villages have not fully recovered from the 2011-2012 floods. It is of utmost importance to support the most vulnerable rural communities to recover their flood-affected livelihoods. In the meantime, prioritizing disaster preparedness through flood hazard and population mapping is crucial to ensure that realistic contingency plans are in place to deliver an effective and timely response and reduce the impact of floods before they strike. To increase preparedness in future floods, an integrated approach that builds the resilience of flood affected community and enhances emergency preparedness based on reliable data is critical. We present here the innovative methodology developed for estimating population and livelihood that could potentially be affected by a future flood scenario, as well as a methodology for knowing where these people are located, along with an overview of their livelihood pattern. This project has used only freely available dataset, due to the urgency of providing a toolbox to the humanitarian community and the absence of readily available detailed information on natural hazards and exposure in Pakistan. The estimated figures resulting from this project, would provide the Food Security stakeholders with adequate information and data for programming a tailored response in case of floods during future monsoon season. For the purpose of preparedness, understanding the risks, and its potential magnitude, is crucial to provide decision

  18. Prevalence of obesity and affecting factors in physically disabled adults living in the city centre of Malatya

    PubMed Central

    Bozkir, Çiğdem; Özer, Ali; Pehlivan, Erkan

    2016-01-01

    Objective The purpose of this study was to investigate the prevalence of obesity, and the risk factors associated with it, in physically disabled adults living in the city centre of Malatya, Turkey. Method This research was designed as a cross-sectional study conducted on physically disabled people aged 20–65 years living in the city centre of Malatya. The prevalence of obesity in disabled people was within 95% CIs, the power was calculated as 80%, and the sample size of our population was calculated as 258 individuals. Results The prevalence of obesity was found to be 13.2%. The relationship between disability type and obesity status was found to be significant. The prevalence of obesity was 21.3% in visually impaired people, 17.9% in speech-impaired people, 17.8% in hearing-impaired people and 6.5% in orthopaedically disabled people. Conclusions Educational interventions on nutrition and lifestyle can be effective considering the high prevalence of obesity in visually impaired people, the prevalence of weakness in orthopaedically disabled people and the risk related to the area in which body fat is localised even when body mass index is within the normal range. Training disabled people in sports appropriate to their disability type and building appropriate facilities for those sports might have a positive effect. PMID:27609842

  19. Interpreting epidemiological research: blinded comparison of methods used to estimate the prevalence of inherited mutations in BRCA1

    PubMed Central

    Eng, C.; Brody, L.; Wagner, T.; Devilee, P.; Vijg, J.; Szabo, C.; Tavtigian, S.; Nathanson, K.; Ostrander, E.; Frank, T.

    2001-01-01

    While sequence analysis is considered by many to be the most sensitive method of detecting unknown mutations in large genes such as BRCA1, most published estimates of the prevalence of mutations in this gene have been derived from studies that have used other methods of gene analysis. In order to determine the relative sensitivity of techniques that are widely used in research on BRCA1, a set of blinded samples containing 58 distinct mutations were analysed by four separate laboratories. Each used one of the following methods: single strand conformational polymorphism analysis (SSCP), conformation sensitive gel electrophoresis (CSGE), two dimensional gene scanning (TDGS), and denaturing high performance liquid chromatography (DHPLC). Only the laboratory using DHPLC correctly identified each of the mutations. The laboratory using TDGS correctly identified 91% of the mutations but produced three apparent false positive results. The laboratories using SSCP and CSGE detected abnormal migration for 72% and 76% of the mutations, respectively, but subsequently confirmed and reported only 65% and 60% of mutations, respectively. False negatives therefore resulted not only from failure of the techniques to distinguish wild type from mutant, but also from failure to confirm the mutation by sequence analysis as well as from human errors leading to misreporting of results. These findings characterise sources of error in commonly used methods of mutation detection that should be addressed by laboratories using these methods. Based upon sources of error identified in this comparison, it is likely that mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 are more prevalent than some studies have previously reported. The findings of this comparison provide a basis for interpreting studies of mutations in susceptibility genes across many inherited cancer syndromes.


Keywords: BRCA1; mutation detection; cancer genetics PMID:11748305

  20. The Use of Innovative Two-Component Cluster Analysis and Serodiagnostic Cut-Off Methods to Estimate Prevalence of Pertussis Reinfections.

    PubMed

    van Twillert, Inonge; Bonačić Marinović, Axel A; van Gaans-van den Brink, Jacqueline A M; Kuipers, Betsy; Berbers, Guy A M; van der Maas, Nicoline A T; Verheij, Theo J M; Versteegh, Florens G A; Teunis, Peter F M; van Els, Cécile A C M

    2016-01-01

    Bordetella pertussis circulates even in highly vaccinated countries affecting all age groups. Insight into the scale of concealed reinfections is important as they may contribute to transmission. We therefore investigated whether current single-point serodiagnostic methods are suitable to estimate the prevalence of pertussis reinfection. Two methods based on IgG-Ptx plasma levels alone were used to evaluate the proportion of renewed seroconversions in the past year in a cohort of retrospective pertussis cases ≥ 24 months after a proven earlier symptomatic infection. A Dutch population database was used as a baseline. Applying a classical 62.5 IU/ml IgG-Ptx cut-off, we calculated a seroprevalence of 15% in retrospective cases, higher than the 10% observed in the population baseline. However, this method could not discriminate between renewed seroconversion and waning of previously infection-enhanced IgG-Ptx levels. Two-component cluster analysis of the IgG-Ptx datasets of both pertussis cases and the general population revealed a continuum of intermediate IgG-Ptx levels, preventing the establishment of a positive population and the comparison of prevalence by this alternative method. Next, we investigated the complementary serodiagnostic value of IgA-Ptx levels. When modelling datasets including both convalescent and retrospective cases we obtained new cut-offs for both IgG-Ptx and IgA-Ptx that were optimized to evaluate renewed seroconversions in the ex-cases target population. Combining these cut-offs two-dimensionally, we calculated 8.0% reinfections in retrospective cases, being below the baseline seroprevalence. Our study for the first time revealed the shortcomings of using only IgG-Ptx data in conventional serodiagnostic methods to determine pertussis reinfections. Improved results can be obtained with two-dimensional serodiagnostic profiling. The proportion of reinfections thus established suggests a relatively increased period of protection to renewed

  1. The Use of Innovative Two-Component Cluster Analysis and Serodiagnostic Cut-Off Methods to Estimate Prevalence of Pertussis Reinfections

    PubMed Central

    van Twillert, Inonge; Bonačić Marinović, Axel A.; van Gaans-van den Brink, Jacqueline A. M.; Kuipers, Betsy; Berbers, Guy A. M.; van der Maas, Nicoline A. T.; Verheij, Theo J. M.; Versteegh, Florens G. A.; Teunis, Peter F. M.; van Els, Cécile A. C. M.

    2016-01-01

    Bordetella pertussis circulates even in highly vaccinated countries affecting all age groups. Insight into the scale of concealed reinfections is important as they may contribute to transmission. We therefore investigated whether current single-point serodiagnostic methods are suitable to estimate the prevalence of pertussis reinfection. Two methods based on IgG-Ptx plasma levels alone were used to evaluate the proportion of renewed seroconversions in the past year in a cohort of retrospective pertussis cases ≥ 24 months after a proven earlier symptomatic infection. A Dutch population database was used as a baseline. Applying a classical 62.5 IU/ml IgG-Ptx cut-off, we calculated a seroprevalence of 15% in retrospective cases, higher than the 10% observed in the population baseline. However, this method could not discriminate between renewed seroconversion and waning of previously infection-enhanced IgG-Ptx levels. Two-component cluster analysis of the IgG-Ptx datasets of both pertussis cases and the general population revealed a continuum of intermediate IgG-Ptx levels, preventing the establishment of a positive population and the comparison of prevalence by this alternative method. Next, we investigated the complementary serodiagnostic value of IgA-Ptx levels. When modelling datasets including both convalescent and retrospective cases we obtained new cut-offs for both IgG-Ptx and IgA-Ptx that were optimized to evaluate renewed seroconversions in the ex-cases target population. Combining these cut-offs two-dimensionally, we calculated 8.0% reinfections in retrospective cases, being below the baseline seroprevalence. Our study for the first time revealed the shortcomings of using only IgG-Ptx data in conventional serodiagnostic methods to determine pertussis reinfections. Improved results can be obtained with two-dimensional serodiagnostic profiling. The proportion of reinfections thus established suggests a relatively increased period of protection to renewed

  2. Statistical Properties of Real-Time Amplitude Estimate of Harmonics Affected by Frequency Instability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bellan, Diego; Pignari, Sergio A.

    2016-07-01

    This work deals with the statistical characterization of real-time digital measurement of the amplitude of harmonics affected by frequency instability. In fact, in modern power systems both the presence of harmonics and frequency instability are well-known and widespread phenomena mainly due to nonlinear loads and distributed generation, respectively. As a result, real-time monitoring of voltage/current frequency spectra is of paramount importance as far as power quality issues are addressed. Within this framework, a key point is that in many cases real-time continuous monitoring prevents the application of sophisticated algorithms to extract all the information from the digitized waveforms because of the required computational burden. In those cases only simple evaluations such as peak search of discrete Fourier transform are implemented. It is well known, however, that a slight change in waveform frequency results in lack of sampling synchronism and uncertainty in amplitude estimate. Of course the impact of this phenomenon increases with the order of the harmonic to be measured. In this paper an approximate analytical approach is proposed in order to describe the statistical properties of the measured magnitude of harmonics affected by frequency instability. By providing a simplified description of the frequency behavior of the windows used against spectral leakage, analytical expressions for mean value, variance, cumulative distribution function, and probability density function of the measured harmonics magnitude are derived in closed form as functions of waveform frequency treated as a random variable.

  3. Hepatic and extra-hepatic sequelae, and prevalence of viral hepatitis C infection estimated from routine data in at-risk groups

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Concerns about the hepatitis C virus (HCV) are due to the high risk of chronic liver disease and poor treatment efficacy. Synthesizing evidence from multiple data sources is becoming widely used to estimate HCV-infection prevalence. This paper aims to estimate the prevalence of HCV infection, and the hepatic and extrahepatic sequelae in at-risk groups, using routinely collected data in the Lazio region, Italy. Methods HCV laboratory surveillance and dialysis, hospital discharge, and drug-user registers were used as information sources to identify at-risk groups and to estimate HCV prevalence and sequelae. Full name and birth date were used as linkage keys for the various health registries. Prevalence was estimated as the percentage of cases within the general population and the at-risk groups, with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) from 1997 to 2001. The risk of sequelae was estimated through a follow-up of hospital discharges up to December 31, 2004 and calculated as the prevalence ratio in HCV-positive and HCV-negative people, within each at-risk group, with 95% CI. Results There were 65,127 HCV-infected people in the study period; the prevalence was 1.24% (95%CI = 1.23%-1.25%) in the whole population, higher in males and older adults. Drug users (35.1%; 95%CI = 34.6-35.7) and dialysis patients (21.1%; 95%CI = 20.2%-22.0%) showed the highest values. Medical procedures with little exposure to blood resulted in higher estimates, ranging between 1.3% and 3.4%, which was not conclusively attributable to the surgical procedures. Cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma and encephalopathy were the most frequent hepatic sequelae; cryoglobulinaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma were the most frequent extrahepatic sequelae. Conclusions Synthesising data from multiple routine sources improved estimates of HCV prevalence and sequelae in dialysis patients and drug users, although prevalence validity should be assessed in survey and sequelae need a well

  4. Prevalence and factors affecting use of long acting and permanent contraceptive methods in Jinka town, Southern Ethiopia: a cross sectional study

    PubMed Central

    Mekonnen, Getachew; Enquselassie, Fikre; Tesfaye, Gezahegn; Semahegn, Agumasie

    2014-01-01

    Introduction In Ethiopia, knowledge of contraceptive methods is high though there is low contraceptive prevalence rate. This study was aimed to assess prevalence and associated factors of long acting and permanent contraceptive methods in Jinka town, southern Ethiopia. Methods Community based cross sectional survey was conducted to assess the prevalence and factors affecting long acting and permanent methods of contraceptives utilization from March to April 2008. Eight hundred child bearing age women were participated in the quantitative study and 32 purposively selected focus group discussants were participated in the qualitative study. Face to face interview was used for data collection. Data were analyzed by SPSS version 13.0 statistical software. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression were computed to analyze the data. Results The prevalence of long acting and permanent contraceptive method was 7.3%. Three fourth (76.1%) of the women have ever heard about implants and implant 28 (50%) were the most widely used method. Almost two third of women had intention to use long acting and permanent methods. Knowledge of contraceptive and age of women have significant association with the use of long acting and permanent contraceptive methods. Conclusion The overall prevalence of long acting and permanent contraceptive method was low. Knowledge of contraceptive and age of women have significant association with use of long acting and permanent contraceptive. Extensive health information should be provided. PMID:25404960

  5. Trypanosomes and haemosporidia in the buzzard (Buteo buteo) and sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus): factors affecting the prevalence of parasites.

    PubMed

    Svobodová, Milena; Weidinger, Karel; Peške, Lubomír; Volf, Petr; Votýpka, Jan; Voříšek, Petr

    2015-02-01

    The prevalences of heteroxenous parasites are influenced by the interplay of three main actors: hosts, vectors, and the parasites themselves. We studied blood protists in the nesting populations of raptors in two different areas of the Czech Republic. Altogether, 788 nestlings and 258 adult Eurasian sparrowhawks (Accipiter nisus) and 321 nestlings and 86 adult common buzzards (Buteo buteo) were screened for parasites by the microscopic examination of blood smears and by cultivation. We examined the role of shared vectors and parasite phylogenetic relationships on the occurrence of parasites. In different years and hosts, trypanosome prevalence ranged between 1.9 and 87.2 %, that of Leucocytozoon between 1.9 and 100 %, and Haemoproteus between 0 and 72.7 %. Coinfections with Leucocytozoon and Trypanosoma, phylogenetically distant parasites but both transmitted by blackflies (Simuliidae), were more frequent than coinfections with Leucocytozoon and Haemoproteus, phylogenetically closely related parasites transmitted by different vectors (blackflies and biting midges (Ceratopogonidae), respectively). For example, 16.6 % buzzard nestlings were coinfected with Trypanosoma and Leucocytozoon, while only 4.8 % with Leucocytozoon and Haemoproteus and 0.3 % with Trypanosoma and Haemoproteus. Nestlings in the same nest tended to have the same infection status. Furthermore, prevalence increased with the age of nestlings and with Julian date, while brood size had only a weak negative/positive effect on prevalence at the individual/brood level. Prevalences in a particular avian host species also varied between study sites and years. All these factors should thus be considered while comparing prevalences from different studies, the impact of vectors being the most important. We conclude that phylogenetically unrelated parasites that share the same vectors tend to have similar distributions within the host populations of two different raptor species.

  6. Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate HIV prevalence in men who have sex with men in Poland at the end of 2009.

    PubMed

    Rosinska, M; Gwiazda, P; De Angelis, D; Presanis, A M

    2016-04-01

    HIV spread in men who have sex with men (MSM) is an increasing problem in Poland. Despite the existence of a surveillance system, there is no direct evidence to allow estimation of HIV prevalence and the proportion undiagnosed in MSM. We extracted data on HIV and the MSM population in Poland, including case-based surveillance data, diagnostic testing prevalence data and behavioural data relating to self-reported prior diagnosis, stratified by age (⩽35, >35 years) and region (Mazowieckie including the capital city of Warsaw; other regions). They were integrated into one model based on a Bayesian evidence synthesis approach. The posterior distributions for HIV prevalence and the undiagnosed fraction were estimated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. To improve the model fit we repeated the analysis, introducing bias parameters to account for potential lack of representativeness in data. By placing additional constraints on bias parameters we obtained precisely identified estimates. This family of models indicates a high undiagnosed fraction [68·3%, 95% credibility interval (CrI) 53·9-76·1] and overall low prevalence (2·3%, 95% CrI 1·4-4·1) of HIV in MSM. Additional data are necessary in order to produce more robust epidemiological estimates. More effort is urgently needed to ensure timely diagnosis of HIV in Poland. PMID:26542091

  7. Hate Crimes and Stigma-Related Experiences among Sexual Minority Adults in the United States: Prevalence Estimates from a National Probability Sample

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Herek, Gregory M.

    2009-01-01

    Using survey responses collected via the Internet from a U.S. national probability sample of gay, lesbian, and bisexual adults (N = 662), this article reports prevalence estimates of criminal victimization and related experiences based on the target's sexual orientation. Approximately 20% of respondents reported having experienced a person or…

  8. Selection of meteorological parameters affecting rainfall estimation using neuro-fuzzy computing methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashim, Roslan; Roy, Chandrabhushan; Motamedi, Shervin; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Petković, Dalibor; Gocic, Milan; Lee, Siew Cheng

    2016-05-01

    Rainfall is a complex atmospheric process that varies over time and space. Researchers have used various empirical and numerical methods to enhance estimation of rainfall intensity. We developed a novel prediction model in this study, with the emphasis on accuracy to identify the most significant meteorological parameters having effect on rainfall. For this, we used five input parameters: wet day frequency (dwet), vapor pressure (e̅a), and maximum and minimum air temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) as well as cloud cover (cc). The data were obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department for the Patna city, Bihar, India. Further, a type of soft-computing method, known as the adaptive-neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), was applied to the available data. In this respect, the observation data from 1901 to 2000 were employed for testing, validating, and estimating monthly rainfall via the simulated model. In addition, the ANFIS process for variable selection was implemented to detect the predominant variables affecting the rainfall prediction. Finally, the performance of the model was compared to other soft-computing approaches, including the artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), extreme learning machine (ELM), and genetic programming (GP). The results revealed that ANN, ELM, ANFIS, SVM, and GP had R2 of 0.9531, 0.9572, 0.9764, 0.9525, and 0.9526, respectively. Therefore, we conclude that the ANFIS is the best method among all to predict monthly rainfall. Moreover, dwet was found to be the most influential parameter for rainfall prediction, and the best predictor of accuracy. This study also identified sets of two and three meteorological parameters that show the best predictions.

  9. Satellite based classification (haze, fog) and affected area estimation over Indo - Pak Sub-Continent

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghauri, Badar; Zafar, Sumaira

    2016-07-01

    Northern Pakistan and bordering Indian Punjab experience intense smog and fog during fall and winters. Environmentalists have been raising their voices over the situation and demanded control over regional emissions to save the livelihood of millions of dwellers whose trade, commerce and agriculture is at stake because of long smog/ fog spells.. This paper estimates the area affected by haze, smog and fog during 2006- 2010. MODIS (geo-referenced MODIS subsets India1, 2 &3) of the area in Pakistan and India from 2006 to 2010 for the period October to February) were analyzed using state of the art software ENVI 4.2 and ArcGIS 10.2. This process resulted in area belonging to each class that is; haze, smog and fog. On the basis of density, haze and fog cover was determined. Variations in fog cover, its density and identification of location of fog initiation process were also determined using near real time (30 minutes) METEOSAT-7 IODC data where actually fog formation started and then extended to the area of favorable conditions. Haze has been noticed to intensify due to massive burning of agricultural waste (rice husk) in India and Pakistan towards the end of October each year. MODIS thermal anomalies/fire data (MYD 14) were also used to verify this activity on the ground, which results in hazy conditions at regional level during fall months. Haze-affected area during 2006 to 2010 in Pakistan ranged from 155,000 Km2 to 354,000 Km2 and in India it ranged from 333,000 Km2 to 846,000 Km2. Similarly winter fog cover during this period in Pakistan varied from 136,000 Km2 to 381,000 Km2 and in India it was estimated at 327,000 Km2 to 566,000 Km2. This phenomenon was more prominent in India than in Pakistan where and fog cover was at least twice than that was observed in Pakistan. It has been noted that area covered by fog, smog and haze doubled during the study period in the region. Atmospheric dimming during autumn/ fall also reduces the mixing height leading to greater

  10. The prevalence of Campylobacter amongst a free-range broiler breeder flock was primarily affected by flock age.

    PubMed

    Colles, Frances M; McCarthy, Noel D; Layton, Ruth; Maiden, Martin C J

    2011-01-01

    Campylobacter successfully colonizes broiler chickens, but little is known about the longer term natural history of colonization, since most flocks are slaughtered at an immature age. In this study, the prevalence and genetic diversity of Campylobacter colonizing a single free-range broiler breeder flock was investigated over the course of a year. The age of the flock was the most important factor in determining both the prevalence and diversity of Campylobacter over time. There was no correlation with season, temperature, the amount of rain and sunshine, or the dynamics of colonization amongst geographically and temporally matched broiler flocks. The higher prevalence rates coincided with the age at which broiler chickens are typically slaughtered, but then in the absence of bio-security or other intervention methods, and despite changes in flock management, the prevalence fell to significantly lower levels for the remainder of the study. The genetic diversity of Campylobacter increased as the flock aged, implying that genotypes were accumulated within the flock and may persist for a long time. A better understanding of the ecology of Campylobacter within commercial chicken flocks will allow the design of more effective farm-based interventions.

  11. A Budyko framework for estimating how lateral redistribution affects large-scale evapotranspiration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rouholahnejad, Elham; Kirchner, James W.

    2016-04-01

    , lateral redistribution can alter regional ET fluxes. Using this approach, one can obtain a first-order estimate for how much lateral redistribution may affect evapotranspiration rates at regional, continental, and global scales.

  12. Estimation of the growth kinetic parameters of Bacillus cereus spores as affected by pulsed light treatment.

    PubMed

    Aguirre, Juan S; de Fernando, Gonzalo García; Hierro, Eva; Hospital, Xavier F; Ordóñez, Juan A; Fernández, Manuela

    2015-06-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessment requires the knowledge of the effect of food preservation technologies on the growth parameters of the survivors of the treatment. This is of special interest in the case of the new non-thermal technologies that are being investigated for minimal processing of foods. This is a study on the effect of pulsed light technology (PL) on the lag phase of Bacillus cereus spores surviving the treatment and the maximum growth rate (μmax) of the survivors after germination. The D value was estimated as 0.35 J/cm(2) and our findings showed that PL affected the kinetic parameters of the microorganism. A log linear relationship was observed between the lag phase and the intensity of the treatment. Increasing the lethality lengthened the mean lag phase and proportionally increased its variability. A polynomial regression was fitted between the μmax of the survivors and the inactivation achieved. The μmax decreased as intensity increased. From these data, and their comparison to published results on the effect of heat and e-beam irradiation on B. cereus spores, it was observed that the shelf-life of PL treated foods would be longer than those treated with heat and similar to irradiated ones. These findings offer information of interest for the implementation of PL for microbial decontamination in the food industry. PMID:25755081

  13. Estimation of the growth kinetic parameters of Bacillus cereus spores as affected by pulsed light treatment.

    PubMed

    Aguirre, Juan S; de Fernando, Gonzalo García; Hierro, Eva; Hospital, Xavier F; Ordóñez, Juan A; Fernández, Manuela

    2015-06-01

    Quantitative microbial risk assessment requires the knowledge of the effect of food preservation technologies on the growth parameters of the survivors of the treatment. This is of special interest in the case of the new non-thermal technologies that are being investigated for minimal processing of foods. This is a study on the effect of pulsed light technology (PL) on the lag phase of Bacillus cereus spores surviving the treatment and the maximum growth rate (μmax) of the survivors after germination. The D value was estimated as 0.35 J/cm(2) and our findings showed that PL affected the kinetic parameters of the microorganism. A log linear relationship was observed between the lag phase and the intensity of the treatment. Increasing the lethality lengthened the mean lag phase and proportionally increased its variability. A polynomial regression was fitted between the μmax of the survivors and the inactivation achieved. The μmax decreased as intensity increased. From these data, and their comparison to published results on the effect of heat and e-beam irradiation on B. cereus spores, it was observed that the shelf-life of PL treated foods would be longer than those treated with heat and similar to irradiated ones. These findings offer information of interest for the implementation of PL for microbial decontamination in the food industry.

  14. A Lifetime Prevalence of Comorbidity Between Bipolar Affective Disorder and Anxiety Disorders: A Meta-analysis of 52 Interview-based Studies of Psychiatric Population

    PubMed Central

    Nabavi, Behrouz; Mitchell, Alex J.; Nutt, David

    2015-01-01

    Background Bipolar affective disorder has a high rate of comorbidity with a multitude of psychiatric disorders and medical conditions. Among all the potential comorbidities, co-existing anxiety disorders stand out due to their high prevalence. Aims To determine the lifetime prevalence of comorbid anxiety disorders in bipolar affective disorder under the care of psychiatric services through systematic review and meta-analysis. Method Random effects meta-analyses were used to calculate the lifetime prevalence of comorbid generalised anxiety disorder, panic disorder, social anxiety disorder, specific phobia, agoraphobia, obsessive compulsive disorder and posttraumatic stress disorder in bipolar affective disorder. Results 52 studies were included in the meta-analysis. The rate of lifetime comorbidity was as follows: panic disorder 16.8% (95% CI 13.7–20.1), generalised anxiety disorder 14.4% (95% CI 10.8–18.3), social anxiety disorder13.3% (95% CI 10.1–16.9), post-traumatic stress disorder 10.8% (95% CI 7.3–14.9), specific phobia 10.8% (95% CI 8.2–13.7), obsessive compulsive disorder 10.7% (95% CI 8.7–13.0) and agoraphobia 7.8% (95% CI 5.2–11.0). The lifetime prevalence of any anxiety disorders in bipolar disorder was 42.7%. Conclusions Our results suggest a high rate of lifetime concurrent anxiety disorders in bipolar disorder. The diagnostic issues at the interface are particularly difficult because of the substantial symptom overlap. The treatment of co-existing conditions has clinically remained challenging. PMID:26629535

  15. Taenia solium porcine cysticercosis in Madagascar: Comparison of immuno-diagnostic techniques and estimation of the prevalence in pork carcasses traded in Antananarivo city.

    PubMed

    Porphyre, V; Betson, M; Rabezanahary, H; Mboussou, Y; Zafindraibe, N J; Rasamoelina-Andriamanivo, H; Costard, S; Pfeiffer, D U; Michault, A

    2016-03-30

    Taenia solium cysticercosis was reported in official veterinary and medical statistics to be highly prevalent in pigs and humans in Madagascar, but few estimates are available for pigs. This study aimed to estimate the seroprevalence of porcine cysticercosis among pigs slaughtered in Antananarivo abattoirs. Firstly, the diagnostic performance of two antigen-ELISA techniques (B158B60 Ag-ELISA and HP10 Ag-ELISA) and an immunoblotting method were compared with meat inspection procedures on a sample of pigs suspected to be infected with (group 1; n=250) or free of (group 2; n=250) T. solium based on direct veterinary inspection in Madagascar. Sensitivity and specificity of the antigen ELISAs were then estimated using a Bayesian approach for detection of porcine cysticercosis in the absence of a gold standard. Then, a third set of pig sera (group 3, n=250) was randomly collected in Antananarivo slaughterhouses and tested to estimate the overall prevalence of T. solium contamination in pork meat traded in Antananarivo. The antigen ELISAs showed a high sensitivity (>84%), but the B158B60 Ag-ELISA appeared to be more specific than the HP10 Ag-ELISA (model 1: 95% vs 74%; model 2: 87% vs 71%). The overall prevalence of porcine cysticercosis in Antananarivo slaughterhouses was estimated at 2.3% (95% credibility interval [95%CrI]: 0.09-9.1%) to 2.6% (95%CrI: 0.1-10.3%) depending on the model and priors used. Since the sample used in this study is not representative of the national pig population, village-based surveys and longitudinal monitoring at slaughter are needed to better estimate the overall prevalence, geographical patterns and main risk factors for T. solium contamination, in order to improve control policies.

  16. Landscape and Meteorological Factors Affecting Prevalence of Three Food-Borne Pathogens in Fruit and Vegetable Farms

    PubMed Central

    Strawn, Laura K.; Fortes, Esther D.; Bihn, Elizabeth A.; Nightingale, Kendra K.; Gröhn, Yrjö T.; Worobo, Randy W.; Wiedmann, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Produce-related outbreaks have been traced back to the preharvest environment. A longitudinal study was conducted on five farms in New York State to characterize the prevalence, persistence, and diversity of food-borne pathogens in fresh produce fields and to determine landscape and meteorological factors that predict their presence. Produce fields were sampled four times per year for 2 years. A total of 588 samples were analyzed for Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella, and Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC). The prevalence measures of L. monocytogenes, Salmonella, and STEC were 15.0, 4.6, and 2.7%, respectively. L. monocytogenes and Salmonella were detected more frequently in water samples, while STEC was detected with equal frequency across all sample types (soil, water, feces, and drag swabs). L. monocytogenes sigB gene allelic types 57, 58, and 61 and Salmonella enterica serovar Cerro were repeatedly isolated from water samples. Soil available water storage (AWS), temperature, and proximity to three land cover classes (water, roads and urban development, and pasture/hay grass) influenced the likelihood of detecting L. monocytogenes. Drainage class, AWS, and precipitation were identified as important factors in Salmonella detection. This information was used in a geographic information system framework to hypothesize locations of environmental reservoirs where the prevalence of food-borne pathogens may be elevated. The map indicated that not all croplands are equally likely to contain environmental reservoirs of L. monocytogenes. These findings advance recommendations to minimize the risk of preharvest contamination by enhancing models of the environmental constraints on the survival and persistence of food-borne pathogens in fields. PMID:23144137

  17. Intensity of amnesia during hypnosis is positively correlated with estimated prevalence of sexual abuse and alien abductions: implications for the false memory syndrome.

    PubMed

    Dittburner, T L; Persinger, M A

    1993-12-01

    20 normal young women listened to an ambiguous story concerning a young boy who experienced fear, odd smells, and a smothering sensation during the night and skin lesions the next morning. After the Hypnotic Induction Profile (HIP) had been established, they were asked to estimate either the percentage prevalence of childhood sexual abuse or alien abduction in the general population. There were moderate (0.50) positive correlations between the subjects' estimates of prevalence and the amount of amnesia ("lost time") and indices of right-hemispheric anomalies (history of sensed presence and left-ear suppressions during a dichotic-listening task). Relevance of observations to formation of the False Memory Syndrome and to the development of nonpsychotic delusions is discussed.

  18. Manual anchoring biases in slant estimation affect matches even for near surfaces.

    PubMed

    Shaffer, Dennis M; McManama, Eric; Durgin, Frank H

    2015-12-01

    People verbally overestimate hill slant by ~15°-25°, whereas manual estimates (e.g., palm board measures) are thought to be more accurate. The relative accuracy of palm boards has contributed to the widely cited theoretical claim that they tap into an accurate, but unconscious, motor representation of locomotor space. Recently, it was shown that a bias that stems from anchoring the hand at horizontal prior to the estimate can quantitatively account for the difference between manual and verbal estimates of hill slant. The present work extends this observation to manual estimates of near-surface slant, to test whether the bias derives from manual or visual uncertainty. As with far surfaces, strong manual anchoring effects were obtained for a large range of near-surface slants, including 45°. Moreover, correlations between participants' manual and verbal estimates further support the conclusion that both measures are based on the same visual representation.

  19. Variations in Substance Use Prevalence Estimates and Need for Interventions among Adult Emergency Department Patients Based on Different Screening Strategies Using the ASSIST

    PubMed Central

    Merchant, Roland C.; Liu, Tao; Baird, Janette R.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Among adult emergency department (ED) patients, we sought to examine how estimates of substance use prevalence and the need for interventions can differ, based on the type of screening and assessment strategies employed. Methods We estimated the prevalence of substance use and the need for interventions using the Alcohol, Smoking and Substance Involvement Screening Test (ASSIST) in a secondary analysis of data from two cross-sectional studies using random samples of English- or Spanish-speaking 18–64-year-old ED patients. In addition, the test performance characteristics of three simplified screening strategies consisting of selected questions from the ASSIST (lifetime use, past three-month use, and past three-month frequency of use) to identify patients in need of a possible intervention were compared against using the full ASSIST. Results Of 6,432 adult ED patients, the median age was 37 years-old, 56.6% were female, and 61.6% were white. Estimated substance use prevalence among this population differed by how it was measured (lifetime use, past three-month use, past three-month frequency of use, or need for interventions). As compared to using the full ASSIST, the predictive value and accuracy to identify patients in need of any intervention was best for a simplified strategy asking about past three-month substance use. A strategy asking about daily/near-daily use was better in identifying patients needing intensive interventions. However, some patients needing interventions were missed when using these simplified strategies. Conclusion Substance use prevalence estimates and identification of ED patients needing interventions differ by screening strategies used. EDs should carefully select strategies to identify patients in need of substance use interventions. PMID:27330663

  20. Estimated Prevalence of Cryptococcus Antigenemia (CrAg) among HIV-Infected Adults with Advanced Immunosuppression in Namibia Justifies Routine Screening and Preemptive Treatment

    PubMed Central

    Makumbi, Boniface; Purfield, Anne; Ndjavera, Christophine; Mutandi, Gram; Maher, Andrew; Kaindjee-Tjituka, Francina; Kaplan, Jonathan E.; Park, Benjamin J.; Lowrance, David W.

    2016-01-01

    Background Cryptococcal meningitis is common and associated with high mortality among HIV infected persons. The World Health Organization recommends that routine Cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) screening in ART-naïve adults with a CD4+ count <100 cells/μL followed by pre-emptive antifungal therapy for CrAg-positive patients be considered where CrAg prevalence is ≥3%. The prevalence of CrAg among HIV adults in Namibia is unknown. We estimated CrAg prevalence among HIV-infected adults receiving care in Namibia for the purpose of informing routine screening strategies. Methods The study design was cross-sectional. De-identified plasma specimens collected for routine CD4+ testing from HIV-infected adults enrolled in HIV care at 181 public health facilities from November 2013 to January 2014 were identified at the national reference laboratory. Remnant plasma from specimens with CD4+ counts <200 cells/μL were sampled and tested for CrAg using the IMMY® Lateral Flow Assay. CrAg prevalence was estimated and assessed for associations with age, sex, and CD4+ count. Results A total of 825 specimens were tested for CrAg. The median (IQR) age of patients from whom specimens were collected was 38 (32–46) years, 45.9% were female and 62.9% of the specimens had CD4 <100 cells/μL. CrAg prevalence was 3.3% overall and 3.9% and 2.3% among samples with CD4+ counts of CD4+<100 cells/μL and 100–200 cells/μL, respectively. CrAg positivity was significantly higher among patients with CD4+ cells/μL < 50 (7.2%, P = 0.001) relative to those with CD4 cells/μL 50–200 (2.2%). Conclusion This is the first study to estimate CrAg prevalence among HIV-infected patients in Namibia. CrAg prevalence of ≥3.0% among patients with CD4+<100 cells/μL justifies routine CrAg screening and preemptive treatment among HIV-infected in Namibia in line with WHO recommendations. Patients with CD4+<100 cells/μL have a significantly greater risk for CrAg positivity. Revised guidelines for ART in

  1. Estimating hidden populations: a new method of calculating the prevalence of drug-injecting and non-injecting female street prostitution.

    PubMed

    Bloor, M; Leyland, A; Barnard, M; McKeganey, N

    1991-11-01

    This paper outlines a new method we have developed for estimating the prevalence of streetworking prostitution and the proportions of female street-working prostitutes who are injecting drug users. This method is based on the capture/recapture approach and involves distinguishing new fieldwork contacts from repeat field work contacts. The size of the overall population can be modelled from records of the increasing ratio of repeat to new fieldwork contacts. The method may have a relevance beyond a concern with prostitution and drug injecting, and may be of value in estimating other hidden populations.

  2. Bacillus cereus and Bacillus thuringiensis spores in Korean rice: prevalence and toxin production as affected by production area and degree of milling.

    PubMed

    Kim, Booyoung; Bang, Jihyun; Kim, Hoikyung; Kim, Yoonsook; Kim, Byeong-Sam; Beuchat, Larry R; Ryu, Jee-Hoon

    2014-09-01

    We determined the prevalence of and toxin production by Bacillus cereus and Bacillus thuringiensis in Korean rice as affected by production area and degree of milling. Rough rice was collected from 64 farms in 22 agricultural areas and polished to produce brown and white rice. In total, rice samples were broadly contaminated with B. cereus spores, with no effect of production area. The prevalence and counts of B. cereus spores declined as milling progressed. Frequencies of hemolysin BL (HBL) production by isolates were significantly (P ≤ 0.01) reduced as milling progressed. This pattern corresponded with the presence of genes encoding the diarrheal enterotoxins. The frequency of B. cereus isolates positive for hblC, hblD, or nheB genes decreased as milling progressed. Because most B. cereus isolates from rice samples contained six enterotoxin genes, we concluded that B. cereus in rice produced in Korea is predominantly of the diarrheagenic type. The prevalence of B. thuringiensis in rice was significantly lower than that of B. cereus and not correlated with production area. All B. thuringiensis isolates were of the diarrheagenic type. This study provides information useful for predicting safety risks associated with B. cereus and B. thuringiensis in rough and processed Korean rice.

  3. Environmental and behavioural factors affecting the prevalence of foot lameness in New Zealand dairy herds - a case-control study.

    PubMed

    Chesterton, R N; Pfeiffer, D U; Morris, R S; Tanner, C M

    1989-12-01

    A case-control study of environmental and behavioural factors influencing foot lameness was undertaken on 62 dairy herds comprising an average of 185 milking cows in Taranaki, New Zealand. Thirty two case herds were identified as having had at least 10 per cent of the cows lame during the milking season in which the herd was studied, and thirty control herds were selected on the basis that no more than 3 per cent of cows in these herds had been lame per year for at least two years immediately prior to investigation. Each herd was visited at both a morning and an afternoon milking, and 58 risk factors were measured between the time the farmer began to assemble the cows for milking and the completion of milking. Comparison of single variables between case and control herds identified 24 which showed differences (p<0.10). These variables were then subjected to stepwise multivariate logistic regression, and statistically significant variables in this analysis were used to create a tentative path diagram of possible causal web relationships between the various risk factors and the outcome variable, the lameness prevalence level. Information from a review of the published literature was used to include further variables to the 24 into the initial (or null hypothesis) path model. Logistic path analysis was then used to eliminate non-significant paths from the diagram, leaving 19 arrows joining 13 variables in the final path diagram, compared with 33 joining 20 variables in the initial version. The most influential variables in explaining variation between case and control herds were the average level of maintenance of the track and the degree of patience shown by the farmer in bringing the cows in for milking. Overall, factors associated with the movement of animals to the milking shed explained 40 per cent of the variation (deviance) with regard to the lameness prevalence level. Risk factors associated with characteristics of the milking process explain 24 per cent, and

  4. Source of Parental Reports of Child Height and Weight During Phone Interviews and Influence on Obesity Prevalence Estimates Among Children Aged 3–17 Years

    PubMed Central

    Miles, Donna; Perrin, Eliana M.; Coyne-Beasley, Tamera; Ford, Carol

    2013-01-01

    Objective We compared parental reports of children’s height and weight when the values were estimated vs. parent-measured to determine how these reports influence the estimated prevalence of childhood obesity. Methods In the 2007 and 2008 North Carolina Child Health Assessment and Monitoring Program surveys, parents reported height and weight for children aged 3–17 years. When parents reported the values were not measured (by doctor, school, or home), they were asked to measure their child and were later called back. We categorized body mass index status using standard CDC definitions, and we used Chi-square tests and the Stuart-Maxwell test of marginal homogeneity to examine reporting differences. Results About 80% (n=509) of the 638 parents who reported an unmeasured height and/or weight participated in a callback and provided updated measures. Children originally classified as obese were subsequently classified as obese (67%), overweight (13%), and healthy weight (19%). An estimated 28% of younger children (<10 years of age) vs. 6% of older children (aged ≥10 years) were reclassified on callback. Having parents who guessed the height and weight of their children and then reported updated values did not significantly change the overall population estimates of obesity. Conclusion Our findings demonstrate that using parent-reported height and weight values may be sufficient to provide reasonable estimates of obesity prevalence. Systematically asking the source of height and weight information may help improve how it is applied to research of the prevalence of childhood obesity when gold-standard measurements are not available. PMID:23277659

  5. Estimation of Listeria monocytogenes and Escherichia coli O157:H7 prevalence and levels in naturally contaminated rocket and cucumber samples by deterministic and stochastic approaches.

    PubMed

    Hadjilouka, Agni; Mantzourani, Kyriaki-Sofia; Katsarou, Anastasia; Cavaiuolo, Marina; Ferrante, Antonio; Paramithiotis, Spiros; Mataragas, Marios; Drosinos, Eleftherios H

    2015-02-01

    The aims of the present study were to determine the prevalence and levels of Listeria monocytogenes and Escherichia coli O157:H7 in rocket and cucumber samples by deterministic (estimation of a single value) and stochastic (estimation of a range of values) approaches. In parallel, the chromogenic media commonly used for the recovery of these microorganisms were evaluated and compared, and the efficiency of an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA)-based protocol was validated. L. monocytogenes and E. coli O157:H7 were detected and enumerated using agar Listeria according to Ottaviani and Agosti plus RAPID' L. mono medium and Fluorocult plus sorbitol MacConkey medium with cefixime and tellurite in parallel, respectively. Identity was confirmed with biochemical and molecular tests and the ELISA. Performance indices of the media and the prevalence of both pathogens were estimated using Bayesian inference. In rocket, prevalence of both L. monocytogenes and E. coli O157:H7 was estimated at 7% (7 of 100 samples). In cucumber, prevalence was 6% (6 of 100 samples) and 3% (3 of 100 samples) for L. monocytogenes and E. coli O157:H7, respectively. The levels derived from the presence-absence data using Bayesian modeling were estimated at 0.12 CFU/25 g (0.06 to 0.20) and 0.09 CFU/25 g (0.04 to 0.170) for L. monocytogenes in rocket and cucumber samples, respectively. The corresponding values for E. coli O157:H7 were 0.59 CFU/25 g (0.43 to 0.78) and 1.78 CFU/25 g (1.38 to 2.24), respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the culture media differed for rocket and cucumber samples. The ELISA technique had a high level of cross-reactivity. Parallel testing with at least two culture media was required to achieve a reliable result for L. monocytogenes or E. coli O157:H7 prevalence in rocket and cucumber samples.

  6. Estimated Prevalence of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder in a Sample of Panamanian School-Aged Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sanchez, Emelyn Y.; Velarde, Silvia; Britton, Gabrielle B.

    2011-01-01

    The present study investigated the prevalence of ADHD in a school sample of children ages 6-11 years in the city of Panama. The assessment battery included the Conners' Parent and Teacher Rating Scales, the Structured Developmental History of the Behavioral Assessment System for Children (BASC-2), and the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children…

  7. Experimental factors affecting PCR-based estimates of microbial species richness and evenness

    SciTech Connect

    Engelbrektson, Anna; Kunin, Victor; Wrighton, Kelly C.; Zvenigorodsky, Natasha; Chen, Feng; Ochman, Howard; Hugenholtz, Philip

    2009-12-01

    Pyrosequencing of 16S rRNA gene amplicons for microbial community profiling can, for equivalent costs, yield greater than two orders of magnitude more sensitivity than traditional PCR-cloning and Sanger sequencing. With this increased sensitivity and the ability to analyze multiple samples in parallel, it has become possible to evaluate several technical aspects of PCRbased community structure profiling methods. We tested the effect of amplicon length and primer pair on estimates of species richness number of species and evenness relative abundance of species by assessing the potentially tractable microbial community residing in the termite hindgut. Two regions of the 16S rRNA gene were sequenced from one of two common priming sites, spanning the V1-V2 or V8 regions, using amplicons ranging n length from 352 to 1443 bp. Our results demonstrate that both amplicon length and primer pair markedly influence estimates of richness and evenness. However, estimates of species evenness are consistent among different primer pairs targeting the same region. These results highlight the importance of experimental methodology when comparing diversity estimates across communities.

  8. Test Administrator's Gender Affects Female and Male Students' Self-Estimated Verbal General Knowledge

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ortner, Tuulia M.; Vormittag, Isabella

    2011-01-01

    Effects of test administrator's gender on test takers' self-estimated verbal general knowledge and de facto verbal general knowledge were investigated. Based on three theories previously applied in research dealing with the effects of test administrator's ethnicity, it was expected male and female test takers to show higher scores under female…

  9. Estimation of prevalence of Salmonella on pig carcasses and pork joints, using a quantitative risk assessment model aided by meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Barron, Ursula Gonzales; Soumpasis, Ilias; Butler, Francis; Prendergast, Deirdre; Duggan, Sharon; Duffy, Geraldine

    2009-02-01

    This risk assessment study aimed to estimate the prevalence of Salmonella on pig carcasses and pork joints produced in slaughterhouses, on the basis that within groups of slaughter there is a strong association between the proportion of Salmonella-positive animals entering the slaughter lines (x) and the resulting proportion of contaminated eviscerated pig carcasses (y). To this effect, the results of a number of published studies reporting estimates of x and y were assembled in order to model a stochastic weighted regression considering the sensitivities of the diverse Salmonella culture methods. Meta-analysis was used to assign weights to the regression and to estimate the overall effect of chilling on Salmonella incidence on pig carcasses. The model's ability to produce accurate estimates and the intrinsic effectiveness of the modeling capabilities of meta-analysis were appraised using Irish data for the input parameter of prevalence of Salmonella carrier slaughter pigs. The model approximated a Salmonella prevalence in pork joints from Irish boning halls of 4.0% (95% confidence interval, 0.3 to 12.0%) and was validated by the results of a large survey (n = 720) of Salmonella in pork joints (mean, 3.3%; 95% confidence interval, 2.0 to 4.6%) carried out in four commercial pork abattoirs as part of this research project. Sensitivity analysis reinforced the importance of final rinsing (r = -0.382) and chilling (r = -0.221) as stages that contribute to reducing considerably the occurrence of Salmonella on the final product, while hygiene practices during jointing seemed to moderate only marginally the amount of contaminated pork joints. Finally, the adequacy of meta-analysis for integrating different findings and producing distributions for use in stochastic modeling was demonstrated.

  10. An evaluation of the accuracy of small-area demographic estimates of population at risk and its effect on prevalence statistics

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Demographic estimates of population at risk often underpin epidemiologic research and public health surveillance efforts. In spite of their central importance to epidemiology and public-health practice, little previous attention has been paid to evaluating the magnitude of errors associated with such estimates or the sensitivity of epidemiologic statistics to these effects. In spite of the well-known observation that accuracy in demographic estimates declines as the size of the population to be estimated decreases, demographers continue to face pressure to produce estimates for increasingly fine-grained population characteristics at ever-smaller geographic scales. Unfortunately, little guidance on the magnitude of errors that can be expected in such estimates is currently available in the literature and available for consideration in small-area epidemiology. This paper attempts to fill this current gap by producing a Vintage 2010 set of single-year-of-age estimates for census tracts, then evaluating their accuracy and precision in light of the results of the 2010 Census. These estimates are produced and evaluated for 499 census tracts in New Mexico for single-years of age from 0 to 21 and for each sex individually. The error distributions associated with these estimates are characterized statistically using non-parametric statistics including the median and 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles. The impact of these errors are considered through simulations in which observed and estimated 2010 population counts are used as alternative denominators and simulated event counts are used to compute a realistic range fo prevalence values. The implications of the results of this study for small-area epidemiologic research in cancer and environmental health are considered. PMID:24359344

  11. Demography of forest birds in Panama: How do transients affect estimates of survival rates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brawn, J.D.; Karr, J.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Robinson, W.D.; Adams, N.J.; Slotow, R.H.

    1999-01-01

    Estimates of annual survival rates of neotropical birds have proven controversial. Traditionally, tropical birds were thought to have high survival rates for their size, but analyses of a multispecies assemblage from Panama by Karr et al. (1990) provided a counterexample to that view. One criticism of that study has been that the estimates were biased by transient birds captured only once as they passed through the area being sampled. New models that formally adjust for transient individuals have been developed since 1990. Preliminary analyses indicate that these models are indeed useful in modelling the data from Panama. Nonetheless, there is considerable interspecific variation and overall estimates of annual survival rates for understorey birds in Panama remain lower than those from other studies in the Neotropics and well below the rates long assumed for tropical birds (i.e. > 0.80). Therefore, tropical birds may not have systematically higher survival rates than temperate-zone species. Variation in survival rates among tropical species suggests that theory based on a simple tradeoff between clutch size and longevity is inadequate. The demographic traits of birds in the tropics (and elsewhere) vary within and among species according to some combination of historical and ongoing ecological factors. Understanding these processes is the challenge for future work.

  12. Factors affecting waterfowl breeding density and productivity estimates in the Northeast

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Longcore, J.R.; Ringelman, J.K.

    1980-01-01

    During 1977-79, information useful for making breeding pair and brood surveys was obtained while studying black duck (Anas rubripes) habitat selection and productivity in south-central Maine. Surveys should be initiated in relation to sunrise and sunset time. Morning versus evening counts, familiarity with the survey area, wetland dynamics of the study area, wetland surface water area, and allotment of relative survey effort are discussed as they affect the conduct and results of brood surveys.

  13. Haunted by ghosts: prevalence, predictors and outcomes of spirit possession experiences among former child soldiers and war-affected civilians in Northern Uganda.

    PubMed

    Neuner, Frank; Pfeiffer, Anett; Schauer-Kaiser, Elisabeth; Odenwald, Michael; Elbert, Thomas; Ertl, Verena

    2012-08-01

    Phenomena of spirit possession have been documented in many cultures. Some authors have argued that spirit possession is a type of psychopathology, and should be included as a category in diagnostic manuals of mental disorders. However, there are hardly any quantitative studies that report the prevalence of spirit possession on a population level and that provide evidence for its validity as a psychopathological entity. In an epidemiological study that was carried out in 2007 and 2008 with N = 1113 youths and young adults aged between 12 and 25 years in war-affected regions of Northern Uganda we examined the prevalence, predictors and outcomes of cen, a local variant of spirit possession. Randomly selected participants were interviewed using a scale of cen, measures of psychopathology (PTSD and depression) as well as indicators of functional outcome on different levels, including suicide risk, daily activities, perceived discrimination, physical complaints and aggression. We found that cen was more common among former child soldiers then among subjects without a history of abduction. Cen was related to extreme levels of traumatic events and uniquely predicted functional outcome even when the effects of PTSD and depression were controlled for. Our findings show that a long-lasting war that is accompanied by the proliferation of spiritual and magical beliefs and propaganda can lead to high levels of harmful spirit possession. In addition, we provide evidence for the incremental validity of spirit possession as a trauma-related psychological disorder in this context.

  14. Haunted by ghosts: prevalence, predictors and outcomes of spirit possession experiences among former child soldiers and war-affected civilians in Northern Uganda.

    PubMed

    Neuner, Frank; Pfeiffer, Anett; Schauer-Kaiser, Elisabeth; Odenwald, Michael; Elbert, Thomas; Ertl, Verena

    2012-08-01

    Phenomena of spirit possession have been documented in many cultures. Some authors have argued that spirit possession is a type of psychopathology, and should be included as a category in diagnostic manuals of mental disorders. However, there are hardly any quantitative studies that report the prevalence of spirit possession on a population level and that provide evidence for its validity as a psychopathological entity. In an epidemiological study that was carried out in 2007 and 2008 with N = 1113 youths and young adults aged between 12 and 25 years in war-affected regions of Northern Uganda we examined the prevalence, predictors and outcomes of cen, a local variant of spirit possession. Randomly selected participants were interviewed using a scale of cen, measures of psychopathology (PTSD and depression) as well as indicators of functional outcome on different levels, including suicide risk, daily activities, perceived discrimination, physical complaints and aggression. We found that cen was more common among former child soldiers then among subjects without a history of abduction. Cen was related to extreme levels of traumatic events and uniquely predicted functional outcome even when the effects of PTSD and depression were controlled for. Our findings show that a long-lasting war that is accompanied by the proliferation of spiritual and magical beliefs and propaganda can lead to high levels of harmful spirit possession. In addition, we provide evidence for the incremental validity of spirit possession as a trauma-related psychological disorder in this context. PMID:22580073

  15. Estimating minimum adult HIV prevalence: a cross-sectional study to assess the characteristics of people living with HIV in Italy.

    PubMed

    Camoni, Laura; Raimondo, Mariangela; Dorrucci, Maria; Regine, Vincenza; Salfa, Maria Cristina; Suligoi, Barbara

    2015-03-01

    In 2012, we conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study to assess the number of people living with HIV linked to care and, among these, the number of people on antiretroviral therapy. The health authority in each of the 20 Italian Regions provided the list of Public Infectious Diseases Clinics providing antiretroviral therapy and monitoring people with HIV infection. We asked every Public Infectious Diseases Clinic to report the number of HIV-positive people diagnosed and linked to care and the number of those on antiretroviral therapy during 2012. In 2012, 94,146 people diagnosed with HIV and linked to care were reported. The majority were males (70.1%), Italians (84.4%), and aged between 25 and 49 years (63.4%); the probable route of transmission was heterosexual contact in 37.5% of cases, injecting drug use in 28.1%, and male-to-male contact in 27.9%. Among people in care, 20.1% had less than 350 CD4 cells/μl, 87.6% received antiretroviral therapy, and among these, 62.4% had a CD4 cell count higher than 350 cells/μl. The overall estimated prevalence of individuals diagnosed and linked to care in 2012 in Italy was 0.16 per 100 residents (all ages). Adding the estimated proportion of undiagnosed people, the estimated HIV prevalence would range between 0.19 and 0.26 per 100 residents. In Italy, the majority of people diagnosed and linked to care receive antiretroviral therapy. A higher prevalence of individuals diagnosed and linked to care was observed in Northern Italy and among males. More information for developing the HIV care continuum is necessary to improve the entire engagement in care, focusing on test-and-treat strategies to substantially reduce the proportion of people still undiagnosed or with a detectable viral load.

  16. Estimating Minimum Adult HIV Prevalence: A Cross-Sectional Study to Assess the Characteristics of People Living with HIV in Italy

    PubMed Central

    Raimondo, Mariangela; Dorrucci, Maria; Regine, Vincenza; Salfa, Maria Cristina; Suligoi, Barbara

    2015-01-01

    Abstract In 2012, we conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study to assess the number of people living with HIV linked to care and, among these, the number of people on antiretroviral therapy. The health authority in each of the 20 Italian Regions provided the list of Public Infectious Diseases Clinics providing antiretroviral therapy and monitoring people with HIV infection. We asked every Public Infectious Diseases Clinic to report the number of HIV-positive people diagnosed and linked to care and the number of those on antiretroviral therapy during 2012. In 2012, 94,146 people diagnosed with HIV and linked to care were reported. The majority were males (70.1%), Italians (84.4%), and aged between 25 and 49 years (63.4%); the probable route of transmission was heterosexual contact in 37.5% of cases, injecting drug use in 28.1%, and male-to-male contact in 27.9%. Among people in care, 20.1% had less than 350 CD4 cells/μl, 87.6% received antiretroviral therapy, and among these, 62.4% had a CD4 cell count higher than 350 cells/μl. The overall estimated prevalence of individuals diagnosed and linked to care in 2012 in Italy was 0.16 per 100 residents (all ages). Adding the estimated proportion of undiagnosed people, the estimated HIV prevalence would range between 0.19 and 0.26 per 100 residents. In Italy, the majority of people diagnosed and linked to care receive antiretroviral therapy. A higher prevalence of individuals diagnosed and linked to care was observed in Northern Italy and among males. More information for developing the HIV care continuum is necessary to improve the entire engagement in care, focusing on test-and-treat strategies to substantially reduce the proportion of people still undiagnosed or with a detectable viral load. PMID:25432098

  17. Estimates of Marine Debris Accumulation on Beaches Are Strongly Affected by the Temporal Scale of Sampling

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Stephen D. A.; Markic, Ana

    2013-01-01

    Marine debris is a global issue with impacts on marine organisms, ecological processes, aesthetics and economies. Consequently, there is increasing interest in quantifying the scale of the problem. Accumulation rates of debris on beaches have been advocated as a useful proxy for at-sea debris loads. However, here we show that past studies may have vastly underestimated the quantity of available debris because sampling was too infrequent. Our study of debris on a small beach in eastern Australia indicates that estimated daily accumulation rates decrease rapidly with increasing intervals between surveys, and the quantity of available debris is underestimated by 50% after only 3 days and by an order of magnitude after 1 month. As few past studies report sampling frequencies of less than a month, estimates of the scale of the marine debris problem need to be critically re-examined and scaled-up accordingly. These results reinforce similar, recent work advocating daily sampling as a standard approach for accurate quantification of available debris in coastal habitats. We outline an alternative approach whereby site-specific accumulation models are generated to correct bias when daily sampling is impractical. PMID:24367607

  18. Estimates of marine debris accumulation on beaches are strongly affected by the temporal scale of sampling.

    PubMed

    Smith, Stephen D A; Markic, Ana

    2013-01-01

    Marine debris is a global issue with impacts on marine organisms, ecological processes, aesthetics and economies. Consequently, there is increasing interest in quantifying the scale of the problem. Accumulation rates of debris on beaches have been advocated as a useful proxy for at-sea debris loads. However, here we show that past studies may have vastly underestimated the quantity of available debris because sampling was too infrequent. Our study of debris on a small beach in eastern Australia indicates that estimated daily accumulation rates decrease rapidly with increasing intervals between surveys, and the quantity of available debris is underestimated by 50% after only 3 days and by an order of magnitude after 1 month. As few past studies report sampling frequencies of less than a month, estimates of the scale of the marine debris problem need to be critically re-examined and scaled-up accordingly. These results reinforce similar, recent work advocating daily sampling as a standard approach for accurate quantification of available debris in coastal habitats. We outline an alternative approach whereby site-specific accumulation models are generated to correct bias when daily sampling is impractical.

  19. Estimates of marine debris accumulation on beaches are strongly affected by the temporal scale of sampling.

    PubMed

    Smith, Stephen D A; Markic, Ana

    2013-01-01

    Marine debris is a global issue with impacts on marine organisms, ecological processes, aesthetics and economies. Consequently, there is increasing interest in quantifying the scale of the problem. Accumulation rates of debris on beaches have been advocated as a useful proxy for at-sea debris loads. However, here we show that past studies may have vastly underestimated the quantity of available debris because sampling was too infrequent. Our study of debris on a small beach in eastern Australia indicates that estimated daily accumulation rates decrease rapidly with increasing intervals between surveys, and the quantity of available debris is underestimated by 50% after only 3 days and by an order of magnitude after 1 month. As few past studies report sampling frequencies of less than a month, estimates of the scale of the marine debris problem need to be critically re-examined and scaled-up accordingly. These results reinforce similar, recent work advocating daily sampling as a standard approach for accurate quantification of available debris in coastal habitats. We outline an alternative approach whereby site-specific accumulation models are generated to correct bias when daily sampling is impractical. PMID:24367607

  20. Does motion affect liver stiffness estimates in shear wave elastography? Phantom and clinical study.

    PubMed

    Pellot-Barakat, Claire; Chami, Linda; Correas, Jean Michel; Lefort, Muriel; Lucidarme, Olivier

    2016-09-01

    This study was undertaken to evaluate the impact of free-breathing (FB) vs. Apnea on Shear-wave elastography (SWE) measurements. Quantitative liver-stiffness measurements were obtained during FB and Apnea for 97 patients with various body-morphologies and liver textures. Quality indexes of FB and Apnea elasticity maps (percentage of non-filling (PNF), temporal (TV) and spatial (SV) variabilities) were computed. SWE measurements were also obtained from an homogeneous phantom at rest and during a mechanically-induced motion. Liver-stiffness values estimated from FB and Apnea acquisitions were correlated, particularly for homogeneous livers (r=0.76, P<0.001) and favorable body-morphologies (r=0.68, P<0.001). However FB values were consistently 20-25% lower than Apnea ones (P<0.001). FB also systematically resulted in degradation of TV (P<0.005) and PNF (P<0.001) compared to Apnea but had no impact on SV. With the phantom, no differences between SWE measurements at rest and during motion were observed. Apnea and FB measurements are highly correlated, although FB data quality is degraded compared to Apnea and estimated stiffness in FB is systematically lower than in Apnea. These discrepancies between rest and motion states were observed for patients but not for phantom data, suggesting that patient breath-holding impacts liver stiffness. PMID:27501901

  1. Does motion affect liver stiffness estimates in shear wave elastography? Phantom and clinical study.

    PubMed

    Pellot-Barakat, Claire; Chami, Linda; Correas, Jean Michel; Lefort, Muriel; Lucidarme, Olivier

    2016-09-01

    This study was undertaken to evaluate the impact of free-breathing (FB) vs. Apnea on Shear-wave elastography (SWE) measurements. Quantitative liver-stiffness measurements were obtained during FB and Apnea for 97 patients with various body-morphologies and liver textures. Quality indexes of FB and Apnea elasticity maps (percentage of non-filling (PNF), temporal (TV) and spatial (SV) variabilities) were computed. SWE measurements were also obtained from an homogeneous phantom at rest and during a mechanically-induced motion. Liver-stiffness values estimated from FB and Apnea acquisitions were correlated, particularly for homogeneous livers (r=0.76, P<0.001) and favorable body-morphologies (r=0.68, P<0.001). However FB values were consistently 20-25% lower than Apnea ones (P<0.001). FB also systematically resulted in degradation of TV (P<0.005) and PNF (P<0.001) compared to Apnea but had no impact on SV. With the phantom, no differences between SWE measurements at rest and during motion were observed. Apnea and FB measurements are highly correlated, although FB data quality is degraded compared to Apnea and estimated stiffness in FB is systematically lower than in Apnea. These discrepancies between rest and motion states were observed for patients but not for phantom data, suggesting that patient breath-holding impacts liver stiffness.

  2. Estimating the net effect of HIV on child mortality in African populations affected by generalized HIV epidemics.

    PubMed

    Marston, Milly; Zaba, Basia; Salomon, Joshua A; Brahmbhatt, Heena; Bagenda, Danstan

    2005-02-01

    For a given prevalence, HIV has a relatively higher impact on child mortality when mortality from other causes is low. To project the effect of the epidemic on child mortality, it is necessary to estimate a realistic schedule of "net" age-specific mortality rates that would operate if HIV were the only cause of child death observable. We assume that this net pattern would be independent of mortality from other causes. We used African studies that measured the survival of HIV-infected children (direct data) or survival of children of HIV-infected mothers (indirect data). We developed a mathematic procedure to estimate the mortality of infected children from indirect data sources and obtained net HIV mortality patterns for each study population. The net age-specific HIV mortality pattern for infected children can be described by a double Weibull curve fitted to empiric data; this gives a functional representation of age-specific mortality rates that decline after infancy and rise in the preteens. The fitted curve that we would expect if HIV were the only effective cause of death shows 67% net survival at 1 year and 39% at 5 years. The curve also predicts 13% net survival at 10 years using constraints based on survival of infected adults.

  3. Estimating the net effect of HIV on child mortality in African populations affected by generalized HIV epidemics.

    PubMed

    Marston, Milly; Zaba, Basia; Salomon, Joshua A; Brahmbhatt, Heena; Bagenda, Danstan

    2005-02-01

    For a given prevalence, HIV has a relatively higher impact on child mortality when mortality from other causes is low. To project the effect of the epidemic on child mortality, it is necessary to estimate a realistic schedule of "net" age-specific mortality rates that would operate if HIV were the only cause of child death observable. We assume that this net pattern would be independent of mortality from other causes. We used African studies that measured the survival of HIV-infected children (direct data) or survival of children of HIV-infected mothers (indirect data). We developed a mathematic procedure to estimate the mortality of infected children from indirect data sources and obtained net HIV mortality patterns for each study population. The net age-specific HIV mortality pattern for infected children can be described by a double Weibull curve fitted to empiric data; this gives a functional representation of age-specific mortality rates that decline after infancy and rise in the preteens. The fitted curve that we would expect if HIV were the only effective cause of death shows 67% net survival at 1 year and 39% at 5 years. The curve also predicts 13% net survival at 10 years using constraints based on survival of infected adults. PMID:15671809

  4. Comment on estimating the solar proton environment that may affect Mars missions.

    PubMed

    Smart, D F; Shea, M A

    2003-01-01

    Estimates of the energetic proton environment for a Mars mission are generally extrapolated from the solar proton observations at 1 AU. We find that solar particle events may be divided into two general classes. Events dominated by a near-sun injection of particles onto interplanetary magnetic field lines leading to the spacecraft position represent the "classical" solar particle event associated with solar activity. This class of event will scale in radial distance by the classical power law extrapolation. The extended-interplanetary-shock source generates a maximum flux as the shock passes the detection location. This class of event typically generates maximum fluence, but in this case, the flux and fluence will not scale in the classical manner with radial distance.

  5. Comment on estimating the solar proton environment that may affect Mars missions.

    PubMed

    Smart, D F; Shea, M A

    2003-01-01

    Estimates of the energetic proton environment for a Mars mission are generally extrapolated from the solar proton observations at 1 AU. We find that solar particle events may be divided into two general classes. Events dominated by a near-sun injection of particles onto interplanetary magnetic field lines leading to the spacecraft position represent the "classical" solar particle event associated with solar activity. This class of event will scale in radial distance by the classical power law extrapolation. The extended-interplanetary-shock source generates a maximum flux as the shock passes the detection location. This class of event typically generates maximum fluence, but in this case, the flux and fluence will not scale in the classical manner with radial distance. PMID:12577924

  6. Cost and sensitivity of on-farm versus slaughterhouse surveys for prevalence estimation and substantiating freedom from disease.

    PubMed

    Schärrer, Sara; Schwermer, Heinzpeter; Presi, Patrick; Lindberg, Ann; Zinsstag, Jakob; Reist, Martin

    2015-06-01

    Within the framework of Swiss surveillance for epizootic diseases, dairy cattle are sampled using bulk tank milk while non-dairy cattle are sampled on the farm. The latter method is costly, time-demanding and dangerous for the personnel. However, slaughterhouses could be an alternative sampling point for this population. To assess the cost-effectiveness and sensitivity of such an approach, surveillance using slaughterhouse sampling was modelled with data from the 2012 Swiss animal movement database (AMD). We simulated a cross-sectional study for bluetongue (BT), and surveillance programmes to substantiate freedom from infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) and enzootic bovine leucosis (EBL) (combined) to compare the outcome of random on-farm sampling versus slaughterhouse sampling. We found that, under Swiss conditions, slaughterhouse sampling results in low herd-level sensitivities because animals are sent by owners to slaughter individually and not in large groups, restricting the number of samples per herd. This makes slaughterhouse sampling inappropriate for prevalence surveys at the herd-level. However, for prevalence surveys at the animal-level and for substantiation of freedom from disease, slaughterhouse surveillance is equally or more cost-efficient than on-farm sampling. PMID:25724077

  7. Use of multiplexed tandem PCR to estimate the prevalence and intensity of Theileria orientalis infections in cattle.

    PubMed

    Perera, Piyumali K; Gasser, Robin B; Read, Elizabeth; Malmo, Jakob; Nguyen, Hanh; Nyein, Simon; Cheng, Allan; Jex, Aaron R; Rawlin, Grant; Spithill, Terence W; Jabbar, Abdul

    2015-06-01

    This study employed a semi-quantitative, multiplexed tandem PCR (MT-PCR) to assess the prevalence and infection intensity of four genotypes (buffeli, chitose, ikeda and type 5) of Theileria orientalis in cattle in Australia. Genomic DNA samples from blood samples (n=448) collected from 27 to 32 dairy cows from each of 15 dairy herds with a history of recent theileriosis outbreaks (Group 1), and from blood samples available from 24 cows with or without oriental theileriosis (Group 2) were tested using MT-PCR. Results revealed that all four genotypes were present in Group 1 cattle; genotype buffeli had the highest prevalence (80.5%), followed by genotypes ikeda (71.4%), chitose (38.6%) and type 5 (20.3%). Genotype ikeda had the highest average infection intensity in the cattle (relating to 55,277 DNA copies), followed by buffeli, chitose and type 5 (6354-51,648 copies). For Group 2, results indicated that genotype ikeda had a significantly higher average intensity of infection than buffeli in symptomatic cattle (P<0.001), and symptomatic cattle had a higher intensity of ikeda than asymptomatic cattle (P=0.004). Future studies should assess the utility of the present MT-PCR assay as a diagnostic and epidemiological tool in other parts of Australasia and the world.

  8. Estimating the Prevalence of Heat-Related Symptoms and Sun Safety-Related Behavior among Latino Farmworkers in Eastern North Carolina.

    PubMed

    Kearney, Gregory D; Hu, Hui; Xu, Xiaohui; Hall, Marla B; Balanay, Jo Anne G

    2016-01-01

    In hot weather, thermal heat generated by the body, combined with environmental heat from the sun, can lead outdoor workers to experience heat-related stress, severe illness, or even death. The aims of this study were to estimate the prevalence of heat-related symptoms and potential risk factors associated with sun safety-related behavior among Latino farmworkers. Data from interviewer-administered questionnaires were collected from a cross-sectional survey among farmworkers (N = 158) from August to September 2013. Data analysis assessed associations between work activities, sun safety behavior, and the prevalence of heat-related illness (HRI) symptoms among workers. Nearly two thirds (72%) of farmworkers experienced at least one HRI symptom and lacked proper cooling methods when working outdoors. Most workers reported wearing long-sleeved shirts (85%), long pants (98%), and baseball caps (93%). The prevalence of having one HRI symptom was 72% and 27% among workers having three or more HRI symptoms. The majority of farmworkers experience symptoms of HRI and are not provided with proper shade protection when working outdoors. Increased emphasis on administrative controls, particularly educating field supervisors and workers on how to avoid and recognize HRI, should be a priority.

  9. Population-based Estimate of the Prevalence of HER-2 Positive Breast Cancer Tumors for Early Stage Patients in the US

    PubMed Central

    Cronin, Kathleen A.; Harlan, Linda C.; Dodd, Kevin W.; Abrams, Jeffrey S.; Ballard-Barbash, Rachel

    2010-01-01

    The goal of this study was to estimate prevalence of HER-2 positive tumors in a population-based sample of 1026 women diagnosed in 2005 with early stage breast cancer. We modeled the relationship between patient and tumor characteristics and HER-2. HER-2 positive estimates were 19% for women aged ≤49 years and 15% aged ≥50 years. HER-2 varied by tumor grade and size in women aged ≤49 years but was not significant in multivariate analysis. Tumor grade and race were associated with HER-2 for women aged ≥50 years after controlling for other variables. HER-2 varies by age and by race and tumor in older women. PMID:20690807

  10. Smoking and smokeless tobacco use in nine South and Southeast Asian countries: prevalence estimates and social determinants from Demographic and Health Surveys

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background In South and Southeast Asian countries, tobacco is consumed in diverse forms, and smoking among women is very low. We aimed to provide national estimates of prevalence and social determinants of smoking and smokeless tobacco use among men and women separately. Methods Data from Demographic and Health Surveys completed in nine countries (India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Maldives, Philippines, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Timor Leste) were analyzed. Current smoking or smokeless tobacco use was assessed as response “yes” to one or more of three questions, such as “Do you currently smoke cigarettes?” Weighted country-level prevalence rates for socio-economic subgroups were calculated for smoking and smokeless tobacco use. Binary logistic regression analyses were done on STATA/IC (version 10) by ‘svy’ command. Results Prevalence and type of tobacco use among men and women varied across the countries and among socio-economic sub groups. Smoking prevalence was much lower in women than men in all countries. Smoking among men was very high in Indonesia, Maldives, and Bangladesh. Smokeless tobacco (mainly chewable) was used in diverse forms, particularly in India, among both men and women. Chewing tobacco was common in Nepal, Bangladesh, Maldives, and Cambodia. Both smoking and smokeless tobacco use were associated with higher age, lower education, and poverty, but their association with place of residence and marital status was not uniform between men and women across the countries. Conclusion Policymakers should consider type of tobacco consumption and their differentials among various population subgroups to implement country-specific tobacco control policies and target the vulnerable groups. Smokeless tobacco use should also be prioritized in tobacco control efforts. PMID:25183954

  11. How Galactic Cosmic Ray models affect the estimation of radiation exposure in space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mrigakshi, Alankrita Isha; Matthiä, Daniel; Berger, Thomas; Reitz, Günther; Wimmer-Schweingruber, Robert F.

    2013-03-01

    The radiation environment in space is a major concern for human spaceflight because of the adverse effects of high levels of radiation on astronauts' health. Therefore, it is essential to perform radiation risk assessments already during the concept studies of a manned mission. Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) have been identified to be one of the primary sources of radiation exposure in space.This work presents an evaluation of the radiation exposure caused by GCR between 1970 and 2011 in near-Earth interplanetary space and at the orbit of the International Space Station (ISS) by making numerical simulations with the Monte-Carlo framework GEANT4. Commonly used GCR models - CREME96, CREME2009 and Badhwar-O'Neill2010 are used to describe the GCR spectra and the differences arising from the application of these different models in terms of absorbed dose and dose equivalent rates are investigated. Additionally, the depth distribution of the dose quantities and the relative contribution of particles with different energies to the total exposure during solar maximum and minimum conditions are studied.The differences in the spectra, described by the models, result in considerable differences in the estimation of the radiation exposure.

  12. Estimating the Size of HIV Key Affected Populations in Chongqing, China, Using the Network Scale-Up Method

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Wen; Wu, Guohui; Zhang, Wei; Hladik, Wolfgang; Abdul-Quader, Abu; Bulterys, Marc; Fuller, Serena; Wang, Lu

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To estimate the average social network size in the general population and the size of HIV key affected populations (KAPs) in Chongqing municipality using the network scale-up method (NSUM). Methods A general population survey was conducted in 2011 through a multistage random sampling method. Participants aged between 18 and 60 years were recruited. The average social network size (c) was estimated and adjusted by known population method. The size of HIV KAP in Chongqing municipality was estimated using the adjusted c value with adjustment for the transmission effect using the scaled respect factor. Results 3,026 inhabitants of Chongqing agreed to the survey, and 2,957 (97.7%) completed the questionnaire. The adjusted c value was 310. The estimated size of KAP was 28,418(95% Confidence Interval (CI):26,636∼30,201) for female sex workers (FSW), 163,199(95%CI:156,490∼169,908) for clients of FSW, 37,959(95%CI: 34,888∼41,030) for drug users (DU), 14,975(95%CI:13,047∼16,904) for injecting drug users (IDU) and 16,767(95%CI:14,602∼18,932) for men who have sex with men (MSM). The ratio of clients to FSW was 5.74∶1, and IDU accounted for 39.5% of the DU population. The estimates suggest that FSW account for 0.37% of the female population aged 15–49 years in Chongqing, and clients of FSW and MSM represent 2.09% and 0.21% of the male population aged 15–49 years in the city, respectively. Conclusion NSUM provides reasonable population size estimates for FSW, their clients, DU and IDU in Chongqing. However, it is likely to underestimate the population size of MSM even after adjusting for the transmission effect. PMID:23967246

  13. Burden of Six Healthcare-Associated Infections on European Population Health: Estimating Incidence-Based Disability-Adjusted Life Years through a Population Prevalence-Based Modelling Study

    PubMed Central

    Eckmanns, Tim; Abu Sin, Muna; Ducomble, Tanja; Harder, Thomas; Sixtensson, Madlen; Velasco, Edward; Weiß, Bettina; Kramarz, Piotr; Monnet, Dominique L.; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E.; Suetens, Carl

    2016-01-01

    Background Estimating the burden of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) compared to other communicable diseases is an ongoing challenge given the need for good quality data on the incidence of these infections and the involved comorbidities. Based on the methodology of the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE) project and 2011–2012 data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) point prevalence survey (PPS) of HAIs and antimicrobial use in European acute care hospitals, we estimated the burden of six common HAIs. Methods and Findings The included HAIs were healthcare-associated pneumonia (HAP), healthcare-associated urinary tract infection (HA UTI), surgical site infection (SSI), healthcare-associated Clostridium difficile infection (HA CDI), healthcare-associated neonatal sepsis, and healthcare-associated primary bloodstream infection (HA primary BSI). The burden of these HAIs was measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Evidence relating to the disease progression pathway of each type of HAI was collected through systematic literature reviews, in order to estimate the risks attributable to HAIs. For each of the six HAIs, gender and age group prevalence from the ECDC PPS was converted into incidence rates by applying the Rhame and Sudderth formula. We adjusted for reduced life expectancy within the hospital population using three severity groups based on McCabe score data from the ECDC PPS. We estimated that 2,609,911 new cases of HAI occur every year in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA). The cumulative burden of the six HAIs was estimated at 501 DALYs per 100,000 general population each year in EU/EEA. HAP and HA primary BSI were associated with the highest burden and represented more than 60% of the total burden, with 169 and 145 DALYs per 100,000 total population, respectively. HA UTI, SSI, HA CDI, and HA primary BSI ranked as the third to sixth syndromes in terms of burden of disease

  14. Estimating the influence of life satisfaction and positive affect on later income using sibling fixed effects

    PubMed Central

    De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel; Oswald, Andrew J.

    2012-01-01

    The question of whether there is a connection between income and psychological well-being is a long-studied issue across the social, psychological, and behavioral sciences. Much research has found that richer people tend to be happier. However, relatively little attention has been paid to whether happier individuals perform better financially in the first place. This possibility of reverse causality is arguably understudied. Using data from a large US representative panel, we show that adolescents and young adults who report higher life satisfaction or positive affect grow up to earn significantly higher levels of income later in life. We focus on earnings approximately one decade after the person’s well-being is measured; we exploit the availability of sibling clusters to introduce family fixed effects; we account for the human capacity to imagine later socioeconomic outcomes and to anticipate the resulting feelings in current well-being. The study’s results are robust to the inclusion of controls such as education, intelligence quotient, physical health, height, self-esteem, and later happiness. We consider how psychological well-being may influence income. Sobel–Goodman mediation tests reveal direct and indirect effects that carry the influence from happiness to income. Significant mediating pathways include a higher probability of obtaining a college degree, getting hired and promoted, having higher degrees of optimism and extraversion, and less neuroticism. PMID:23169627

  15. Substance use in a school-based clinic population: use of the randomized response technique to estimate prevalence.

    PubMed

    Fisher, M; Kupferman, L B; Lesser, M

    1992-06-01

    Students attending school-based clinics acknowledge only minimal involvement with drug or alcohol use. In order to explain this unanticipated finding, we used a statistical method called randomized response to study adolescents in one school-based clinic. The sample consisted of 133 students (57% female; 75% black, 20% Hispanic, 5% other; and 58% grades 9-10, 42% grades 11-12). Using both lifetime and 30-day prevalence rates, these students revealed more cigarette smoking and alcohol use on randomized response than they had on questionnaires completed earlier the same academic year, minimal involvement with either marijuana or cocaine use by either method, and a similar amount of sexual activity by both methods. This study demonstrates that randomized response can be a useful method to generate more truthful group responses from adolescents. PMID:1610843

  16. Estimate of prevalence of glucose intolerance in chronic liver disease. Degree of agreement among some diagnostic criteria.

    PubMed

    Buzzelli, G; Chiarantini, E; Cotrozzi, G; Relli, P; Matassi, L; Romanelli, R G; Gentilini, P

    1988-12-01

    In patients with chronic liver disease, the reliability of various criteria generally used to diagnose impaired glucose tolerance and diabetes was evaluated. Twenty-one patients with chronic persistent hepatitis, 68 patients with chronic active hepatitis and 57 patients with liver cirrhosis were studied. All subjects underwent an oral glucose tolerance test (75 g). Impaired glucose tolerance and diabetes were diagnosed according to the criteria established by: the National Diabetes Study Group; Fajans and Conn; the European Diabetes Study Group; Deutsche Diabetes Gesellschaft; Kobberling & Creutzfeld criteria 1 and 2; Wilkerson; and the University Group Diabetes Program. The results obtained are in partial agreement with other reported data, showing a high prevalence of both impaired glucose tolerance and diabetes in chronic liver disease, with a positive correlation to the severity of hepatic involvement. However, our results show that the agreement among the criteria most frequently used for diagnosing impaired glucose tolerance and diabetes is still far from satisfactory.

  17. Childhood obesity in Canada: a review of prevalence estimates and risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and type 2 diabetes.

    PubMed

    Ball, Geoff D C; McCargar, Linda J

    2003-02-01

    Childhood obesity in Canada has become increasingly prevalent over the past 2 decades. Despite inconsistencies regarding different anthropometric indicators, cut-offs, and reference populations, both regional and national investigations have revealed high numbers of overweight and obese children and adolescents. A number of risk factors and health consequences have been associated with increased levels of body fatness in youth. Specifically, risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and type 2 diabetes are known to develop early in life and tend to emerge in clusters among overweight youngsters. Unhealthy lifestyle behaviours (i.e., physical inactivity), a genetic disposition, and a centralized body fat distribution, all contribute to increased risk. In order to prevent future generations of children from experiencing increased morbidity and mortality as overweight and obese adults, coordinated efforts at all levels (family, school, community, and government) must be established with a long-term commitment to promote healthy nutrition and physical activity behaviours in our youth.

  18. Factors affecting uncertainty in lung nodule volume estimation with CT: comparisons of findings from two estimation methods in a phantom study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Qin; Gavrielides, Marios A.; Zeng, Rongping; Myers, Kyle J.; Sahiner, Berkman; Petrick, Nicholas

    2015-03-01

    This work aimed to compare two different types of volume estimation methods (a model-based and a segmentationbased method) in terms of identifying factors affecting measurement uncertainty. Twenty-nine synthetic nodules with varying size, radiodensity, and shape were placed in an anthropomorphic thoracic phantom and scanned with a 16- detector row CT scanner. Ten repeat scans were acquired using three exposures and two slice collimations, and were reconstructed with varying slice thicknesses. Nodule volumes were estimated from the reconstructed data using a matched-filter and a segmentation approach. Log transformed volumes were used to obtain measurement error with truth obtained through micro-CT. ANOVA and multiple linear regression were applied to measurement error to identify significant factors affecting volume estimation for each method. Root mean square of measurement errors (RMSE) for meaningful subgroups, repeatability coefficients (RC) for different imaging protocols, and reproducibility coefficients (RDC) for thin and thick collimation conditions were evaluated. Results showed that for both methods, nodule size, shape and slice thickness were significant factors. Collimation was significant for the matched-filter method. RMSEs for matched-filter measurements were in general smaller than segmentation. To achieve RMSE on the order of 15% or less for {5, 8, 9, 10mm} nodules, the corresponding maximum allowable slice thicknesses were {3, 5, 5, 5mm} for the matched-filter and {0.8, 3, 3, 3mm} for the segmentation method. RCs showed similar patterns for both methods, increasing with slice thickness. For 8-10mm nodules, the measurements were highly repeatable provided the slice thickness was ≤3mm, regardless of method and across varying acquisition conditions. RDCs were lower for thin collimation than thick collimation protocols. While RDC of matched filter volume estimation results was always lower than segmentation results, for 8-10mm nodules with thin

  19. Measurement error affects risk estimates for recruitment to the Hudson River stock of striped bass.

    PubMed

    Dunning, Dennis J; Ross, Quentin E; Munch, Stephan B; Ginzburg, Lev R

    2002-06-01

    We examined the consequences of ignoring the distinction between measurement error and natural variability in an assessment of risk to the Hudson River stock of striped bass posed by entrainment at the Bowline Point, Indian Point, and Roseton power plants. Risk was defined as the probability that recruitment of age-1+ striped bass would decline by 80% or more, relative to the equilibrium value, at least once during the time periods examined (1, 5, 10, and 15 years). Measurement error, estimated using two abundance indices from independent beach seine surveys conducted on the Hudson River, accounted for 50% of the variability in one index and 56% of the variability in the other. If a measurement error of 50% was ignored and all of the variability in abundance was attributed to natural causes, the risk that recruitment of age-1+ striped bass would decline by 80% or more after 15 years was 0.308 at the current level of entrainment mortality (11%). However, the risk decreased almost tenfold (0.032) if a measurement error of 50% was considered. The change in risk attributable to decreasing the entrainment mortality rate from 11 to 0% was very small (0.009) and similar in magnitude to the change in risk associated with an action proposed in Amendment #5 to the Interstate Fishery Management Plan for Atlantic striped bass (0.006)--an increase in the instantaneous fishing mortality rate from 0.33 to 0.4. The proposed increase in fishing mortality was not considered an adverse environmental impact, which suggests that potentially costly efforts to reduce entrainment mortality on the Hudson River stock of striped bass are not warranted.

  20. Estimating how inflated or obscured effects of climate affect forecasted species distribution.

    PubMed

    Real, Raimundo; Romero, David; Olivero, Jesús; Estrada, Alba; Márquez, Ana L

    2013-01-01

    Climate is one of the main drivers of species distribution. However, as different environmental factors tend to co-vary, the effect of climate cannot be taken at face value, as it may be either inflated or obscured by other correlated factors. We used the favourability models of four species (Alytes dickhilleni, Vipera latasti, Aquila fasciata and Capra pyrenaica) inhabiting Spanish mountains as case studies to evaluate the relative contribution of climate in their forecasted favourability by using variation partitioning and weighting the effect of climate in relation to non-climatic factors. By calculating the pure effect of the climatic factor, the pure effects of non-climatic factors, the shared climatic effect and the proportion of the pure effect of the climatic factor in relation to its apparent effect (ρ), we assessed the apparent effect and the pure independent effect of climate. We then projected both types of effects when modelling the future favourability for each species and combination of AOGCM-SRES (two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: CGCM2 and ECHAM4, and two Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B2). The results show that the apparent effect of climate can be either inflated (overrated) or obscured (underrated) by other correlated factors. These differences were species-specific; the sum of favourable areas forecasted according to the pure climatic effect differed from that forecasted according to the apparent climatic effect by about 61% on average for one of the species analyzed, and by about 20% on average for each of the other species. The pure effect of future climate on species distributions can only be estimated by combining climate with other factors. Transferring the pure climatic effect and the apparent climatic effect to the future delimits the maximum and minimum favourable areas forecasted for each species in each climate change scenario.

  1. Violence and Drug Use in Rural Teens: National Prevalence Estimates from the 2003 Youth Risk Behavior Survey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Andrew O.; Mink, Michael D.; Harun, Nusrat; Moore, Charity G.; Martin, Amy B.; Bennett, Kevin J.

    2008-01-01

    Objectives: The purpose of this study was to compare national estimates of drug use and exposure to violence between rural and urban teens. Methods: Twenty-eight dependent variables from the 2003 Youth Risk Behavior Survey were used to compare violent activities, victimization, suicidal behavior, tobacco use, alcohol use, and illegal drug use…

  2. A Functional Vesicular Monoamine Transporter 1 (VMAT1) Gene Variant Is Associated with Affect and the Prevalence of Anxiety, Affective, and Alcohol Use Disorders in a Longitudinal Population-Representative Birth Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Vaht, Mariliis; Kiive, Evelyn; Veidebaum, Toomas

    2016-01-01

    Background: Inter-individual differences in the monoaminergic systems have been shown to moderate the risk for a lifetime history of anxiety, affective, and alcohol use disorders. A common single nucleotide polymorphism in the vesicular monoamine transporter 1 gene (VMAT1 rs1390938 G/A; Thr136Ile) has been reported as functional in vitro and associated with bipolar disorder and anxiety. We aimed at assessing the association between the VMAT1 genotype, affect, and affect-related psychiatric disorders in a longitudinal population-representative study. Methods: We used the database of the Estonian Children Personality Behaviour and Health Study (beginning in 1998). Cohorts of initially 9- (recalled at ages 15 and 18 years, n=579) and 15- (recalled at ages 18 and 25 years; n=654) year-old children provided self-reports on impulsivity, anxiety, depressiveness, neuroticism, and alcohol use. In addition, psychiatric assessment based on DSM-IV was carried out in the older cohort at age 25 years. Results: Subjects homozygous for the less prevalent A (136Ile) allele reported lower maladaptive impulsivity, state and trait anxiety, depressiveness, and neuroticism and were less likely to have been diagnosed with an affective, anxiety, and/or alcohol use disorder by young adulthood. While in the younger cohort alcohol use started at younger age, this birth cohort effect was dependent on genotype: only G allele carriers and in particular the GG homozygotes started alcohol use earlier. Conclusions: VMAT1 rs1390938/Thr136Ile is associated with mood, personality, and alcohol use in the general population. Subjects homozygous for the “hyperfunction” allele (AA; Ile/Ile) appear to be more resilient to these disorders. PMID:26861143

  3. Edge type affects leaf-level water relations and estimated transpiration of Eucalyptus arenacea.

    PubMed

    Wright, Thomas E; Tausz, Michael; Kasel, Sabine; Volkova, Liubov; Merchant, Andrew; Bennett, Lauren T

    2012-03-01

    plantation edges in summer months (most likely due to greater water availability at pasture edges), resulting in significantly greater estimates of annual transpiration at pasture than plantation edges (430 vs. 343lm(-2)year(-1), respectively). Our study highlights the need for landscape-level water flux models to account for edge effects on stand transpiration, particularly in highly fragmented landscapes.

  4. Higher estimated net endogenous Acid production may be associated with increased prevalence of nonalcoholic Fatty liver disease in chinese adults in Hong Kong.

    PubMed

    Chan, Ruth; Wong, Vincent Wai-Sun; Chu, Winnie Chiu-Wing; Wong, Grace Lai-Hung; Li, Liz Sin; Leung, Jason; Chim, Angel Mei-Ling; Yeung, David Ka-Wai; Sea, Mandy Man-Mei; Woo, Jean; Chan, Francis Ka-Leung; Chan, Henry Lik-Yuen

    2015-01-01

    Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has been associated with reduced growth hormone levels and signaling. Such hormonal changes also occur in metabolic acidosis. Since mild metabolic acidosis can be diet induced, diet-induced acid load may constitute a nutritional factor with possible influence on NAFLD development. This study explored whether a higher diet-induced acid load is associated with an increased likelihood of NAFLD. Apparently healthy Chinese adults (330 male, 463 female) aged 19-72 years were recruited through population screening between 2008 and 2010 in a cross-sectional population-based study in Hong Kong. Estimated net endogenous acid production (NEAP) was calculated using Frassetto's method and potential renal acid load (PRAL) was calculated using Remer's method based on dietary data from a food frequency questionnaire. NAFLD was defined as intrahepatic triglyceride content at >5% by proton-magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Possible advanced fibrosis was defined as liver stiffness at >7.9 kPa by transient elastography. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to examine the association between each measure of dietary acid load and prevalent NAFLD or possible advanced fibrosis with adjustment for potential anthropometric and lifestyle factors. 220 subjects (27.7%) were diagnosed with NAFLD. Estimated NEAP was positively associated with the likelihood of having NAFLD after adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, current drinker status and the presence of metabolic syndrome [OR (95% CI) = 1.25 (1.02-1.52), p = 0.022]. The association was slightly attenuated but remained significant when the model was further adjusted for other dietary variables. No association between PRAL and NAFLD prevalence was observed. Both estimated NEAP and PRAL were not associated with the presence of possible advance fibrosis. Our findings suggest that there may be a modest association between diet-induced acid load and NAFLD. More studies are needed to

  5. Wikipedia Usage Estimates Prevalence of Influenza-Like Illness in the United States in Near Real-Time

    PubMed Central

    McIver, David J.; Brownstein, John S.

    2014-01-01

    Circulating levels of both seasonal and pandemic influenza require constant surveillance to ensure the health and safety of the population. While up-to-date information is critical, traditional surveillance systems can have data availability lags of up to two weeks. We introduce a novel method of estimating, in near-real time, the level of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the United States (US) by monitoring the rate of particular Wikipedia article views on a daily basis. We calculated the number of times certain influenza- or health-related Wikipedia articles were accessed each day between December 2007 and August 2013 and compared these data to official ILI activity levels provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). We developed a Poisson model that accurately estimates the level of ILI activity in the American population, up to two weeks ahead of the CDC, with an absolute average difference between the two estimates of just 0.27% over 294 weeks of data. Wikipedia-derived ILI models performed well through both abnormally high media coverage events (such as during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic) as well as unusually severe influenza seasons (such as the 2012–2013 influenza season). Wikipedia usage accurately estimated the week of peak ILI activity 17% more often than Google Flu Trends data and was often more accurate in its measure of ILI intensity. With further study, this method could potentially be implemented for continuous monitoring of ILI activity in the US and to provide support for traditional influenza surveillance tools. PMID:24743682

  6. Estimating prevalence and burden of major disorders of the brain in Nepal: cultural, geographic, logistic and philosophical issues of methodology

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Headache, anxiety and depression are major disorders of the brain in terms of their prevalence and the burdens and costs they impose on society. Nationwide population-based studies of these disorders are necessary to inform health policy but, in research-naïve and resource-poor countries such as Nepal, a host of methodological problems are encountered: cultural, geographic, logistic and philosophical. Methods Expert consensus was sought among researchers from different professional and cultural backgrounds in planning and conceptualizing an epidemiological study and adapting established methods to the special situation and circumstances of Nepal. Results The methodological problems were sorted into different themes: study design; climate; geography, access and transport; sociocultural issues; safety of interviewers. Each of these was dealt with separately, and their inter-relationships explored, in finding solutions that were sometimes pragmatic. A cross-sectional questionnaire-based study, with teams of interviewers visiting households across the three physiographic divisions (with extremes in altitude) in each of the five development regions of the country, would enable national sampling with sociocultural representativeness. However, the study instruments and interviews would be in Nepali only. Transport and access challenges were considerable, and their solutions combined travel by air, bus, river and foot, with allowances for rain-damaged roads, collapsed bridges and cancelled scheduled flights. The monsoon would render many routes impassable, and therefore set an absolute time limitation. Engaging participants willingly in the enquiry would be the key to success, and several tactics would be employed to enhance the success of this, most importantly enlisting the support of local community volunteers in each study site. Conclusion Anticipating problems in advance of investing substantial resources in a large nationwide epidemiological study in

  7. Does Telephone Audio Computer-Assisted Self-Interviewing Improve the Accuracy of Prevalence Estimates of Youth Smoking? Evidence from the UMass Tobacco Study.

    PubMed

    Currivan, Douglas; Nyman, Amy L; Turner, Charles F; Biener, Lois

    2004-12-01

    Despite their advantage for obtaining representative samples of adolescents, telephone surveys have been regarded as inferior for collecting data on youth tobacco use because they yield lower estimates than school-based self-administered surveys. Although no gold standard for smoking estimates exists, the lower estimates in telephone surveys have been attributed to underreporting due to youths' concern about parents or others overhearing their responses. Telephone audio computer-assisted self-interviewing (T-ACASI) is a cost-effective method for obtaining a representative sample of youths and provides increased privacy for the respondent. We hypothesized that using T-ACASI would encourage youths to more fully report smoking behavior compared to traditional interviewer-administered telephone methods. Our analysis further assessed whether respondent age, gender, race/ethnicity, and parental attitude toward smoking moderated the relationship between survey mode and smoking reports. Using data from a statewide tobacco use survey that randomly assigned youth respondents to either T-ACASI or interviewer-administered mode, we found youths were more likely to report smoking behaviors in T-ACASI mode and that this was especially true for girls, particularly those who believed their parents would disapprove strongly of their smoking. Findings suggest that traditional telephone surveys may underestimate smoking prevalence in most girls by a factor of two, and that a technique for insuring privacy for these respondents is an important component of effective telephone survey methodology.

  8. Does Telephone Audio Computer-Assisted Self-Interviewing Improve the Accuracy of Prevalence Estimates of Youth Smoking? Evidence from the UMass Tobacco Study

    PubMed Central

    Currivan, Douglas; Nyman, Amy L.; Turner, Charles F.; Biener, Lois

    2011-01-01

    Despite their advantage for obtaining representative samples of adolescents, telephone surveys have been regarded as inferior for collecting data on youth tobacco use because they yield lower estimates than school-based self-administered surveys. Although no gold standard for smoking estimates exists, the lower estimates in telephone surveys have been attributed to underreporting due to youths’ concern about parents or others overhearing their responses. Telephone audio computer-assisted self-interviewing (T-ACASI) is a cost-effective method for obtaining a representative sample of youths and provides increased privacy for the respondent. We hypothesized that using T-ACASI would encourage youths to more fully report smoking behavior compared to traditional interviewer-administered telephone methods. Our analysis further assessed whether respondent age, gender, race/ethnicity, and parental attitude toward smoking moderated the relationship between survey mode and smoking reports. Using data from a statewide tobacco use survey that randomly assigned youth respondents to either T-ACASI or interviewer-administered mode, we found youths were more likely to report smoking behaviors in T-ACASI mode and that this was especially true for girls, particularly those who believed their parents would disapprove strongly of their smoking. Findings suggest that traditional telephone surveys may underestimate smoking prevalence in most girls by a factor of two, and that a technique for insuring privacy for these respondents is an important component of effective telephone survey methodology. PMID:22081727

  9. A new method to estimate mortality in crisis-affected and resource-poor settings: validation study

    PubMed Central

    Roberts, Bayard; Morgan, Oliver W; Sultani, Mohammed Ghaus; Nyasulu, Peter; Rwebangila, Sunday; Myatt, Mark; Sondorp, Egbert; Chandramohan, Daniel; Checchi, Francesco

    2010-01-01

    Background Data on mortality rates are crucial to guide health interventions in crisis-affected and resource-poor settings. The methods currently available to collect mortality data in such settings feature important methodological limitations. We developed and validated a new method to provide near real-time mortality estimates in such settings. Methods We selected four study sites: Kabul, Afghanistan; Mae La refugee camp, Thailand; Chiradzulu District, Malawi; and Lugufu and Mtabila refugee camps, Tanzania. We recorded information about all deaths in a 60-day period by asking key community informants and decedents’ next of kin to refer interviewers to bereaved households. We used the total number of deaths and population estimates to calculate mortality rates for 60- and 30-day periods. For validation we compared these rates with a best estimate of mortality using capture–recapture analysis with two further independent lists of deaths. Results The population covered by the new method was 76 476 persons in Kabul, 43 794 in Mae La camp, 54 418 in Chiradzulu District and 80 136 in the Tanzania camps. The informant method showed moderate sensitivity (55.0% in Kabul, 64.0% in Mae La, 72.5% in Chiradzulu and 67.7% in Tanzania), but performed better than the active surveillance system in the Tanzania refugee camps. Conclusions The informant method currently features moderate sensitivity for accurately assessing mortality, but warrants further development, particularly considering its advantages over current options (ease of implementation and analysis and near-real estimates of mortality rates). Strategies should be tested to improve the performance of the informant method. PMID:21044978

  10. High Prevalence of Post-Traumatic Stress Symptoms in Relation to Social Factors in Affected Population One Year after the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster

    PubMed Central

    Tsujiuchi, Takuya; Yamaguchi, Maya; Masuda, Kazutaka; Tsuchida, Marisa; Inomata, Tadashi; Kumano, Hiroaki; Kikuchi, Yasushi; Augusterfer, Eugene F.; Mollica, Richard F.

    2016-01-01

    Objective This study investigated post-traumatic stress symptoms in relation to the population affected by the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster, one year after the disaster. Additionally, we investigated social factors, such as forced displacement, which we hypothesize contributed to the high prevalence of post-traumatic stress. Finally, we report of written narratives that were collected from the impacted population. Design and Settings Using the Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R), questionnaires were sent to 2,011 households of those displaced from Fukushima prefecture living temporarily in Saitama prefecture. Of the 490 replies; 350 met the criteria for inclusion in the study. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to examine several characteristics and variables of social factors as predictors of probable post-traumatic stress disorder, PTSD. Results The mean score of IES-R was 36.15±21.55, with 59.4% having scores of 30 or higher, thus indicating a probable PTSD. No significant differences in percentages of high-risk subjects were found among sex, age, evacuation area, housing damages, tsunami affected, family split-up, and acquaintance support. By the result of multiple logistic regression analysis, the significant predictors of probable PTSD were chronic physical diseases (OR = 1.97), chronic mental diseases (OR = 6.25), worries about livelihood (OR = 2.27), lost jobs (OR = 1.71), lost social ties (OR = 2.27), and concerns about compensation (OR = 3.74). Conclusion Although there are limitations in assuming a diagnosis of PTSD based on self-report IES-R, our findings indicate that there was a high-risk of PTSD strongly related to the nuclear disaster and its consequent evacuation and displacement. Therefore, recovery efforts must focus not only on medical and psychological treatment alone, but also on social and economic issues related to the displacement, as well. PMID:27002324

  11. [Congenital transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in Brazil: estimation of prevalence based on preliminary data of national serological surveys in children under 5 years old and other sources].

    PubMed

    Luquetti, Alejandro O; Ferreira, António Walter; Oliveira, Rosângela A; Tavares, Suelene B N; Rassi, Anis; Dias, João Carlos P; Prata, Aluizio

    2005-01-01

    A prevalence estimation of congenital transmission in Brazil is performed, based on several sources of recent data. From a serological survey conducted now in Brazil, with children below 5 years old, preliminary data from the state of Minas Gerais only 19/9,556 children did have antibodies against Trypanosoma cruzi. All 19 mothers were infected, but only one child persisted with antibodies on a second blood collection, hence diagnosed as congenital. The other were just passive transference of maternal antibodies. From a recent publication, 278 children born from 145 infected mothers were studied. Two cases (0.7%) were congenital. In other source, from 1,348 blood donors, 35 were born in non endemic areas. When 10 of them were called, 8 were born from infected mothers and five may be congenital. Finally, no infection was detected in 93 children born from 78 infected mothers. The reasons for this low prevalence are discussed, are lower than in other countries of the South Cone, that harbor also T. cruzi 2, but are unrecognized up to now.

  12. High risk for obstructive sleep apnea in truck drivers estimated by the Berlin questionnaire: prevalence and associated factors.

    PubMed

    Moreno, C R C; Carvalho, F A; Lorenzi, C; Matuzaki, L S; Prezotti, S; Bighetti, P; Louzada, F M; Lorenzi-Filho, G

    2004-01-01

    The health issues that attract our attention when analyzing the truck driver population are the high prevalence of sedentary habits, inadequate diet, obesity, and proportion of hypertensive. All these are either considered risk factors for or a consequence of Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA). The objective of this study was to investigate the risk for OSA among 10,101 truck drivers and to correlate it with potentially related factors, such as serum glucose and cholesterol levels, smoking habits, alcohol and drug consumption, and self-reported physical activity. The drivers were invited to participate in the campaign "Saúde na Boléia" (Health Behind the Wheel) promoted by a Brazilian company responsible for the maintenance of approximately 360km of roads in the country. Drivers who spontaneously stopped at the campaign booths placed along the roads were invited to answer a questionnaire covering sociodemographic data such as age, alcohol, and drug consumption. All participants completed a Berlin Questionnaire and were classified as low- or high-risk subjects for OSA based on questions about snoring, tiredness during the day, and the presence of hypertension or obesity. Blood collection was accomplished at the same site by nurses and/or nursing students collaborating with the campaign for subsequent laboratory studies. Approximately 26% of the truck drivers were found to be at high-risk group for OSA. An adjusted multiple logistic model found the independent risk factors of smoking (OR=1.16; p=0.014) and drug use (OR= 1.32; p < 0.0001) were associated with high risk for OSA. The presence of self-reported occasional (OR=0.62; p<0.0001) and regular (OR=0.53; p < 0.0001) physical activity was found to be an independent factor protective of OSA. Educational programs, including ones aimed at improving one's health habits, such as engagement in physical exercise, should be considered in the development of initiatives to reduce the risk for OSA among the truck driver

  13. Hate crimes and stigma-related experiences among sexual minority adults in the United States: prevalence estimates from a national probability sample.

    PubMed

    Herek, Gregory M

    2009-01-01

    Using survey responses collected via the Internet from a U.S. national probability sample of gay, lesbian, and bisexual adults (N = 662), this article reports prevalence estimates of criminal victimization and related experiences based on the target's sexual orientation. Approximately 20% of respondents reported having experienced a person or property crime based on their sexual orientation; about half had experienced verbal harassment, and more than 1 in 10 reported having experienced employment or housing discrimination. Gay men were significantly more likely than lesbians or bisexuals to experience violence and property crimes. Employment and housing discrimination were significantly more likely among gay men and lesbians than among bisexual men and women. Implications for future research and policy are discussed.

  14. Prevalence of pain and association with psychiatric symptom severity in perinatally HIV-infected children as compared to controls living in HIV-affected households.

    PubMed

    Serchuck, Leslie K; Williams, Paige L; Nachman, Sharon; Gadow, Kenneth D; Chernoff, Miriam; Schwartz, Lynnae

    2010-05-01

    This cross-sectional study evaluated the prevalence of pain and psychiatric symptoms in perinatally HIV-infected children at entry into P1055, a multicenter investigation of the prevalence and severity of psychiatric symptoms in HIV-infected children. Subjects 6-17 years of age and their primary caregivers were recruited from 29 International Maternal Pediatric Adolescent AIDS Clinical Trials sites in the USA and Puerto Rico. A total of 576 children (320 HIV and 256 HIV- children) were enrolled from June 2005 to September 2006. Subject self-reports of pain were measured by the Wong-Baker visual analog scale and Short-Form McGill Pain Questionnaire. Symptomatology for anxiety, depression, and dysthymia was assessed through Symptom Inventory instruments. Caregiver's assessment of their child's pain and psychiatric symptomatology was similarly measured. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate predictors of pain. We found that a higher proportion of HIV-infected than uninfected subjects reported pain in the last two months (41% vs 32%, p=0.04), last two weeks (28% vs 19%, p=0.02), and lasting more than one week (20% vs 11%, p=0.03). Among HIV-infected youth, females (OR=1.53, p=0.09), White race (OR=2.15, p=0.04), and Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Class C (OR=1.83, p=0.04) were significantly more likely to report pain. For all subjects, only 52% of caregivers recognized their child's pain and just 22% were aware that pain affected their child's daily activities. The odds of reported pain in HIV increased with higher symptom severity for generalized anxiety (OR=1.14, p=0.03), major depression (OR=1.15, p=0.03), and dysthymia (OR=1.18, p=0.01). This study underscores the importance of queries concerning pain and emotional stressors in the care of HIV and uninfected children exposed to HIV individuals. The discordance between patient and caregiver reports of pain and its impact on activities of daily living highlights that pain in children is under

  15. Estimating the burden of musculoskeletal disorders in the community: the comparative prevalence of symptoms at different anatomical sites, and the relation to social deprivation

    PubMed Central

    Urwin, M.; Symmons, D.; Allison, T.; Brammah, T.; Busby, H.; Roxby, M.; Simmons, A.; Williams, G.

    1998-01-01

    BACKGROUND—Epidemiologically-based rheumatology healthcare needs assessment requires an understanding of the incidence and prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders in the community, of the reasons why people consult in primary care, and of the proportion of people who would benefit from referral to secondary care and paramedical services. This paper reports the first phase of such a needs assessment exercise.
SPECIFIC OBJECTIVE—To estimate the relative frequency of musculoskeletal pain in different, and multiple, anatomical sites in the adult population.
SETTING—Three general practices in the former Tameside and Glossop Health Authority, Greater Manchester, UK, a predominantly urban area.
DESIGN—Population survey.
METHODS—An age and sex stratified sample of 6000 adults from the three practices was mailed a questionnaire that sought data on demographic factors, musculoskeletal symptoms (pain in the past month lasting for more than a week), and physical disability (using the modified Health Assessment Questionnaire- mHAQ). The areas of pain covered were neck, back, shoulder, elbow, hand, hip, knee, and multiple joints. The Carstairs index was used as a measure of social deprivation of the postcode sector in which the person lived.
RESULTS—The response rate after two reminders was 78.5%. Non-responders were more likely to live in areas of high social deprivation. People who lived in more deprived areas were also more likely to report musculoskeletal pain, especially backpain. After adjusting for social deprivation the rates of musculoskeletal pain did not differ between the practices and so their results were combined. After adjustment for social deprivation, the most common site of pain was back (23%; 95% CI 21, 25) followed by knee (19%; 95% CI 18, 21), and shoulder (16%; 95% CI 14, 17). The majority of subjects who reported pain had pain in more than one site. The prevalence of physical disability in the community rose with age. It was

  16. Dynamic Testing of a Pre-stretched Flexible Tube for Identifying the Factors Affecting Modal Parameter Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Unnikrishnan, Madhusudanan; Rajan, Akash; Basanthvihar Raghunathan, Binulal; Kochupillai, Jayaraj

    2016-06-01

    Experimental modal analysis is the primary tool for obtaining the fundamental dynamic characteristics like natural frequency, mode shape and modal damping ratio that determine the behaviour of any structure under dynamic loading conditions. This paper discusses about a carefully designed experimental method for calculating the dynamic characteristics of a pre-stretched horizontal flexible tube made of polyurethane material. The factors that affect the modal parameter estimation like the application time of shaker excitation, pause time between successive excitation cycles, averaging and windowing of measured signal, as well as the precautions to be taken during the experiment are explained in detail. The modal parameter estimation is done using MEscopeVESTM software. A finite element based pre-stressed modal analysis of the flexible tube is also done using ANSYS ver.14.0 software. The experimental and analytical results agreed well. The proposed experimental methodology may be extended for carrying out the modal analysis of many flexible structures like inflatables, tires and membranes.

  17. Prevalence of Bone Mineral Density Abnormalities and Factors Affecting Bone Density in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in a Tertiary Care Hospital in Southern India

    PubMed Central

    Mani, Sathish Kumar; Gopal, Gopinath Kango; Rangasami, Srinivasan

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a disease of wasting with airflow limitation, associated with a variety of systemic manifestations such as reduced Bone Mineral Density (BMD). There is a paucity of Indian studies on the effects of COPD on BMD. Aim This study was conducted to estimate the prevalence of osteopenia and osteoporosis in COPD patients and the correlation between bone density and severity of COPD classified according to GOLD Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease guidelines (GOLD). Materials and Methods A prospective study of 60 patients diagnosed to have COPD, was conducted in the outpatient department of Respiratory Medicine, at a tertiary care hospital in Southern India, between September 2012 and September 2013. BMD was measured using ultrasound bone densitometer (ACHILLES GE HEALTH CARE). Patients with a T-score between -1 and -2.5 were considered to be osteopenic while patients with a T score less than -2.5 were considered to be osteoporotic (WHO criteria). Results Overall, 40 (67%) patients had an abnormal bone mineral density. A total of 21 (35%) patients were osteoporotic while 19 (33%) were osteopenic. BMD levels correlated with severity of obstruction (p<0.001), smoking status (p=0.02), age (p=0.05) and number of pack years (p=0.001). Conclusion Patients with COPD are at an increased risk for lower BMD and osteoporotic fractures and the risk appears to increase with disease severity. Further studies are required to assess whether routine BMD measurements in COPD patients is beneficial to diagnose osteoporosis and reduce morbidity. PMID:27790490

  18. Estimating the contribution of a service delivery organisation to the national modern contraceptive prevalence rate: Marie Stopes International's Impact 2 model

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Individual family planning service delivery organisations currently rely on service provision data and couple-years of protection as health impact measures. Due to the substitution effect and the continuation of users of long-term methods, these metrics cannot estimate an organisation's contribution to the national modern contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR), the standard metric for measuring family planning programme impacts. Increasing CPR is essential for addressing the unmet need for family planning, a recognized global health priority. Current health impact estimation models cannot isolate the impact of an organisation in these efforts. Marie Stopes International designed the Impact 2 model to measure an organisation's contribution to increases in national CPR, as well as resulting health and demographic impacts. This paper aims to describe the methodology for modelling increasing national-level CPR as well as to discuss its benefits and limitations. Methods Impact 2 converts service provision data into estimates of the number of family planning users, accounting for continuation among users of long-term methods and addressing the challenges of converting commodity distribution data of short-term methods into user numbers. These estimates, combined with the client profile and data on the organisation's previous year's CPR contribution, enable Impact 2 to estimate which clients maintain an organisation's baseline contribution, which ones fulfil population growth offsets, and ultimately, which ones increase CPR. Results Illustrative results from Marie Stopes Madagascar show how Impact 2 can be used to estimate an organisation's contribution to national changes in the CPR. Conclusions Impact 2 is a useful tool for service delivery organisations to move beyond cruder output measures to a better understanding of their role in meeting the global unmet need for family planning. By considering health impact from the perspective of an individual organisation

  19. Estimation of flock/herd-level true Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis prevalence on sheep, beef cattle and deer farms in New Zealand using a novel Bayesian model.

    PubMed

    Verdugo, Cristobal; Jones, Geoff; Johnson, Wes; Wilson, Peter; Stringer, Lesley; Heuer, Cord

    2014-12-01

    The study aimed to estimate the national- and island-level flock/herd true prevalence (HTP) of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection in pastoral farmed sheep, beef cattle and deer in New Zealand. A random sample of 238 single- or multi-species farms was selected from a postal surveyed population of 1940 farms. The sample included 162 sheep flocks, 116 beef cattle and 99 deer herds from seven of 16 geographical regions. Twenty animals from each species present on farm were randomly selected for blood and faecal sampling. Pooled faecal culture testing was conducted using a single pool (sheep flocks) or two pools (beef cattle/deer herds) of 20 and 10 samples per pool, respectively. To increase flock/herd-level sensitivity, sera from all 20 animals from culture negative flocks/herds were individually tested by Pourquier(®) ELISA (sheep and cattle) or Paralisa™ (deer). Results were adjusted for sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic tests using a novel Bayesian latent class model. Outcomes were adjusted by their sampling fractions to obtain HTP estimates at national level. For each species, the posterior probability (POPR) of HTP differences between New Zealand North (NI) and South (SI) Islands was obtained. Across all species, 69% of farms had at least one species test positive. Sheep flocks had the highest HTP estimate (76%, posterior probability interval (PPI) 70-81%), followed by deer (46%, PPI 38-55%) and beef herds (42%, PPI 35-50%). Differences were observed between the two main islands of New Zealand, with higher HTP in sheep and beef cattle flocks/herds in the NI. Sheep flock HTP was 80% in the NI compared with 70% (POPR=0.96) in the SI, while the HTP for beef cattle was 44% in the NI and 38% in the SI (POPR=0.80). Conversely, deer HTP was higher in the SI (54%) than the NI (33%, POPR=0.99). Infection with MAP is endemic at high prevalence in sheep, beef cattle and deer flocks/herds across New Zealand.

  20. Multi-scale occupancy approach to estimate Toxoplasma gondii prevalence and detection probability in tissues: an application and guide for field sampling.

    PubMed

    Elmore, Stacey A; Huyvaert, Kathryn P; Bailey, Larissa L; Iqbal, Asma; Su, Chunlei; Dixon, Brent R; Alisauskas, Ray T; Gajadhar, Alvin A; Jenkins, Emily J

    2016-08-01

    Increasingly, birds are recognised as important hosts for the ubiquitous parasite Toxoplasma gondii, although little experimental evidence exists to determine which tissues should be tested to maximise the detection probability of T. gondii. Also, Arctic-nesting geese are suspected to be important sources of T. gondii in terrestrial Arctic ecosystems, but the parasite has not previously been reported in the tissues of these geese. Using a domestic goose model, we applied a multi-scale occupancy framework to demonstrate that the probability of detection of T. gondii was highest in the brain (0.689, 95% confidence interval=0.486, 0.839) and the heart (0.809, 95% confidence interval=0.693, 0.888). Inoculated geese had an estimated T. gondii infection probability of 0.849, (95% confidence interval=0.643, 0.946), highlighting uncertainty in the system, even under experimental conditions. Guided by these results, we tested the brains and hearts of wild Ross's Geese (Chen rossii, n=50) and Lesser Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens, n=50) from Karrak Lake, Nunavut, Canada. We detected 51 suspected positive tissue samples from 33 wild geese using real-time PCR with melt-curve analysis. The wild goose prevalence estimates generated by our multi-scale occupancy analysis were higher than the naïve estimates of prevalence, indicating that multiple PCR repetitions on the same organs and testing more than one organ could improve T. gondii detection. Genetic characterisation revealed Type III T. gondii alleles in six wild geese and Sarcocystis spp. in 25 samples. Our study demonstrates that Arctic nesting geese are capable of harbouring T. gondii in their tissues and could transport the parasite from their southern overwintering grounds into the Arctic region. We demonstrate how a multi-scale occupancy framework can be used in a domestic animal model to guide resource-limited sample collection and tissue analysis in wildlife. Secondly, we confirm the value of traditional occupancy in

  1. Multi-scale occupancy approach to estimate Toxoplasma gondii prevalence and detection probability in tissues: an application and guide for field sampling.

    PubMed

    Elmore, Stacey A; Huyvaert, Kathryn P; Bailey, Larissa L; Iqbal, Asma; Su, Chunlei; Dixon, Brent R; Alisauskas, Ray T; Gajadhar, Alvin A; Jenkins, Emily J

    2016-08-01

    Increasingly, birds are recognised as important hosts for the ubiquitous parasite Toxoplasma gondii, although little experimental evidence exists to determine which tissues should be tested to maximise the detection probability of T. gondii. Also, Arctic-nesting geese are suspected to be important sources of T. gondii in terrestrial Arctic ecosystems, but the parasite has not previously been reported in the tissues of these geese. Using a domestic goose model, we applied a multi-scale occupancy framework to demonstrate that the probability of detection of T. gondii was highest in the brain (0.689, 95% confidence interval=0.486, 0.839) and the heart (0.809, 95% confidence interval=0.693, 0.888). Inoculated geese had an estimated T. gondii infection probability of 0.849, (95% confidence interval=0.643, 0.946), highlighting uncertainty in the system, even under experimental conditions. Guided by these results, we tested the brains and hearts of wild Ross's Geese (Chen rossii, n=50) and Lesser Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens, n=50) from Karrak Lake, Nunavut, Canada. We detected 51 suspected positive tissue samples from 33 wild geese using real-time PCR with melt-curve analysis. The wild goose prevalence estimates generated by our multi-scale occupancy analysis were higher than the naïve estimates of prevalence, indicating that multiple PCR repetitions on the same organs and testing more than one organ could improve T. gondii detection. Genetic characterisation revealed Type III T. gondii alleles in six wild geese and Sarcocystis spp. in 25 samples. Our study demonstrates that Arctic nesting geese are capable of harbouring T. gondii in their tissues and could transport the parasite from their southern overwintering grounds into the Arctic region. We demonstrate how a multi-scale occupancy framework can be used in a domestic animal model to guide resource-limited sample collection and tissue analysis in wildlife. Secondly, we confirm the value of traditional occupancy in

  2. Higher Estimated Net Endogenous Acid Production May Be Associated with Increased Prevalence of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Chinese Adults in Hong Kong

    PubMed Central

    Chan, Ruth; Wong, Vincent Wai-Sun; Chu, Winnie Chiu-Wing; Wong, Grace Lai-Hung; Li, Liz Sin; Leung, Jason; Chim, Angel Mei-Ling; Yeung, David Ka-Wai; Sea, Mandy Man-Mei; Woo, Jean; Chan, Francis Ka-Leung; Chan, Henry Lik-Yuen

    2015-01-01

    Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has been associated with reduced growth hormone levels and signaling. Such hormonal changes also occur in metabolic acidosis. Since mild metabolic acidosis can be diet induced, diet-induced acid load may constitute a nutritional factor with possible influence on NAFLD development. This study explored whether a higher diet-induced acid load is associated with an increased likelihood of NAFLD. Apparently healthy Chinese adults (330 male, 463 female) aged 19-72 years were recruited through population screening between 2008 and 2010 in a cross-sectional population-based study in Hong Kong. Estimated net endogenous acid production (NEAP) was calculated using Frassetto’s method and potential renal acid load (PRAL) was calculated using Remer’s method based on dietary data from a food frequency questionnaire. NAFLD was defined as intrahepatic triglyceride content at >5% by proton-magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Possible advanced fibrosis was defined as liver stiffness at >7.9 kPa by transient elastography. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to examine the association between each measure of dietary acid load and prevalent NAFLD or possible advanced fibrosis with adjustment for potential anthropometric and lifestyle factors. 220 subjects (27.7%) were diagnosed with NAFLD. Estimated NEAP was positively associated with the likelihood of having NAFLD after adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, current drinker status and the presence of metabolic syndrome [OR (95% CI) = 1.25 (1.02-1.52), p = 0.022]. The association was slightly attenuated but remained significant when the model was further adjusted for other dietary variables. No association between PRAL and NAFLD prevalence was observed. Both estimated NEAP and PRAL were not associated with the presence of possible advance fibrosis. Our findings suggest that there may be a modest association between diet-induced acid load and NAFLD. More studies are needed to

  3. Estimation of the prevalence of Salmonella species on the slatted area compared to the scratch area of broiler breeder chicken houses.

    PubMed

    Behnke, Elena L; Hofacre, Charles L; Berghaus, Roy D

    2013-09-01

    With the objective of detecting Salmonella species in the poultry house environment, sampling broiler breeder houses in the two-thirds slatted area and the one-third scratch area with pine shavings bedding can be difficult. The slatted area is where the females, consisting of approximately 90% of the population, eat, drink, and spend the majority of their time. The scratch area is where the males eat and drink, as well as where mating and mortality occur. Besides the nest boxes, the female feeders and water lines make the slatted areas more difficult to sample. However, it is important to take samples from the area with the greatest likelihood of isolating Salmonella. Therefore, boot swab samples were collected from 21 commercial broiler breeder chicken houses representing three different companies in north Georgia to estimate the prevalence of Salmonella on the slat vs. the scratch area in each chicken house. Every house sampled had a central scratch area covered with litter and two elevated slat areas constructed of wood. Four boot swab samples were collected on each side slat area by walking the entire length of the house for each swab. Eight samples were collected in the same manner from the scratch area. Results of 335 total samples were acquired, 167 of which were obtained from the slat area and 168 of which came from the scratch area, yielding 242 total Salmonella isolations. Salmonella was found in 117 of the slat samples, representing 70.1%, compared to 125 of the scratch area samples, representing 74.4%. Both the univariate (P = 0.311) and the multivariable (P = 0.303) analysis showed that sampling location was not associated with Salmonella prevalence.

  4. [ASRS v.1.1., a tool for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder screening in adults treated for addictive behaviors: psychometric properties and estimated prevalence].

    PubMed

    Pedrero Pérez, Eduardo J; Puerta García, Carmen

    2007-01-01

    ASRS v.1.1. is a self-applied brief instrument for the screening of individuals presenting symptoms of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and proposed by the WHO. The purpose of the present work was to test the instrument and examine the results of its application to a sample of 280 individuals in treatment for substance-related disorders (cross-sectional descriptive study). We administered simultaneously in the initial phases of treatment the ASRS v.1.1. (short form) and the MCMI-II to the full sample and the Wender Utah Rating Scale (WURS), ADHD-Rating Scale-IV and ASRS v.1.1. (complete form) to various sub-samples. Diagnostic interviews were also carried out and the psychometric properties and factorial structure of ASRS v.1.1. were explored. Good convergent validity, sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic capability were obtained for the six-item version of ASRS v.1.1., even though 4 out of 6 items did not discriminate between Axis I and II disorders assessed through the MCMI-II and diagnostic interviews. According to DSM-IV-TR criteria the estimated prevalence of ADHD in the sample of addicts was 8.2%. ASRS v.1.1. is criticized as a specific instrument for ADHD detection, since most of its items appear to measure a non-specific dimension of compulsiveness/impulsiveness, common to Axis-I and Axis-II disorders. Other criticisms made in the discussion concern the lack of specificity of DSM criteria and the confusion they generate among the concepts of symptom, sign and trait (including the impact on study results), the general use of the A criterion but the omission of the B, C, D and E criteria of the DSM category, differences in samples (with regard to both severity and selection criteria), and the artifactual increases in prevalence found in many studies. PMID:18173102

  5. [ASRS v.1.1., a tool for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder screening in adults treated for addictive behaviors: psychometric properties and estimated prevalence].

    PubMed

    Pedrero Pérez, Eduardo J; Puerta García, Carmen

    2007-01-01

    ASRS v.1.1. is a self-applied brief instrument for the screening of individuals presenting symptoms of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and proposed by the WHO. The purpose of the present work was to test the instrument and examine the results of its application to a sample of 280 individuals in treatment for substance-related disorders (cross-sectional descriptive study). We administered simultaneously in the initial phases of treatment the ASRS v.1.1. (short form) and the MCMI-II to the full sample and the Wender Utah Rating Scale (WURS), ADHD-Rating Scale-IV and ASRS v.1.1. (complete form) to various sub-samples. Diagnostic interviews were also carried out and the psychometric properties and factorial structure of ASRS v.1.1. were explored. Good convergent validity, sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic capability were obtained for the six-item version of ASRS v.1.1., even though 4 out of 6 items did not discriminate between Axis I and II disorders assessed through the MCMI-II and diagnostic interviews. According to DSM-IV-TR criteria the estimated prevalence of ADHD in the sample of addicts was 8.2%. ASRS v.1.1. is criticized as a specific instrument for ADHD detection, since most of its items appear to measure a non-specific dimension of compulsiveness/impulsiveness, common to Axis-I and Axis-II disorders. Other criticisms made in the discussion concern the lack of specificity of DSM criteria and the confusion they generate among the concepts of symptom, sign and trait (including the impact on study results), the general use of the A criterion but the omission of the B, C, D and E criteria of the DSM category, differences in samples (with regard to both severity and selection criteria), and the artifactual increases in prevalence found in many studies.

  6. Optimal cut-off points of fasting plasma glucose for two-step strategy in estimating prevalence and screening undiagnosed diabetes and pre-diabetes in Harbin, China.

    PubMed

    Bao, Chundan; Zhang, Dianfeng; Sun, Bo; Lan, Li; Cui, Wenxiu; Xu, Guohua; Sui, Conglan; Wang, Yibaina; Zhao, Yashuang; Wang, Jian; Li, Hongyuan

    2015-01-01

    To identify optimal cut-off points of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) for two-step strategy in screening abnormal glucose metabolism and estimating prevalence in general Chinese population. A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted on 7913 people aged 20 to 74 years in Harbin. Diabetes and pre-diabetes were determined by fasting and 2 hour post-load glucose from the oral glucose tolerance test in all participants. Screening potential of FPG, cost per case identified by two-step strategy, and optimal FPG cut-off points were described. The prevalence of diabetes was 12.7%, of which 65.2% was undiagnosed. Twelve percent or 9.0% of participants were diagnosed with pre-diabetes using 2003 ADA criteria or 1999 WHO criteria, respectively. The optimal FPG cut-off points for two-step strategy were 5.6 mmol/l for previously undiagnosed diabetes (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of FPG 0.93; sensitivity 82.0%; cost per case identified by two-step strategy ¥261), 5.3 mmol/l for both diabetes and pre-diabetes or pre-diabetes alone using 2003 ADA criteria (0.89 or 0.85; 72.4% or 62.9%; ¥110 or ¥258), 5.0 mmol/l for pre-diabetes using 1999 WHO criteria (0.78; 66.8%; ¥399), and 4.9 mmol/l for IGT alone (0.74; 62.2%; ¥502). Using the two-step strategy, the underestimates of prevalence reduced to nearly 38% for pre-diabetes or 18.7% for undiagnosed diabetes, respectively. Approximately a quarter of the general population in Harbin was in hyperglycemic condition. Using optimal FPG cut-off points for two-step strategy in Chinese population may be more effective and less costly for reducing the missed diagnosis of hyperglycemic condition.

  7. Optimal cut-off points of fasting plasma glucose for two-step strategy in estimating prevalence and screening undiagnosed diabetes and pre-diabetes in Harbin, China.

    PubMed

    Bao, Chundan; Zhang, Dianfeng; Sun, Bo; Lan, Li; Cui, Wenxiu; Xu, Guohua; Sui, Conglan; Wang, Yibaina; Zhao, Yashuang; Wang, Jian; Li, Hongyuan

    2015-01-01

    To identify optimal cut-off points of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) for two-step strategy in screening abnormal glucose metabolism and estimating prevalence in general Chinese population. A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted on 7913 people aged 20 to 74 years in Harbin. Diabetes and pre-diabetes were determined by fasting and 2 hour post-load glucose from the oral glucose tolerance test in all participants. Screening potential of FPG, cost per case identified by two-step strategy, and optimal FPG cut-off points were described. The prevalence of diabetes was 12.7%, of which 65.2% was undiagnosed. Twelve percent or 9.0% of participants were diagnosed with pre-diabetes using 2003 ADA criteria or 1999 WHO criteria, respectively. The optimal FPG cut-off points for two-step strategy were 5.6 mmol/l for previously undiagnosed diabetes (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of FPG 0.93; sensitivity 82.0%; cost per case identified by two-step strategy ¥261), 5.3 mmol/l for both diabetes and pre-diabetes or pre-diabetes alone using 2003 ADA criteria (0.89 or 0.85; 72.4% or 62.9%; ¥110 or ¥258), 5.0 mmol/l for pre-diabetes using 1999 WHO criteria (0.78; 66.8%; ¥399), and 4.9 mmol/l for IGT alone (0.74; 62.2%; ¥502). Using the two-step strategy, the underestimates of prevalence reduced to nearly 38% for pre-diabetes or 18.7% for undiagnosed diabetes, respectively. Approximately a quarter of the general population in Harbin was in hyperglycemic condition. Using optimal FPG cut-off points for two-step strategy in Chinese population may be more effective and less costly for reducing the missed diagnosis of hyperglycemic condition. PMID:25785585

  8. Optimal Cut-Off Points of Fasting Plasma Glucose for Two-Step Strategy in Estimating Prevalence and Screening Undiagnosed Diabetes and Pre-Diabetes in Harbin, China

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Bo; Lan, Li; Cui, Wenxiu; Xu, Guohua; Sui, Conglan; Wang, Yibaina; Zhao, Yashuang; Wang, Jian; Li, Hongyuan

    2015-01-01

    To identify optimal cut-off points of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) for two-step strategy in screening abnormal glucose metabolism and estimating prevalence in general Chinese population. A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted on 7913 people aged 20 to 74 years in Harbin. Diabetes and pre-diabetes were determined by fasting and 2 hour post-load glucose from the oral glucose tolerance test in all participants. Screening potential of FPG, cost per case identified by two-step strategy, and optimal FPG cut-off points were described. The prevalence of diabetes was 12.7%, of which 65.2% was undiagnosed. Twelve percent or 9.0% of participants were diagnosed with pre-diabetes using 2003 ADA criteria or 1999 WHO criteria, respectively. The optimal FPG cut-off points for two-step strategy were 5.6 mmol/l for previously undiagnosed diabetes (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of FPG 0.93; sensitivity 82.0%; cost per case identified by two-step strategy ¥261), 5.3 mmol/l for both diabetes and pre-diabetes or pre-diabetes alone using 2003 ADA criteria (0.89 or 0.85; 72.4% or 62.9%; ¥110 or ¥258), 5.0 mmol/l for pre-diabetes using 1999 WHO criteria (0.78; 66.8%; ¥399), and 4.9 mmol/l for IGT alone (0.74; 62.2%; ¥502). Using the two-step strategy, the underestimates of prevalence reduced to nearly 38% for pre-diabetes or 18.7% for undiagnosed diabetes, respectively. Approximately a quarter of the general population in Harbin was in hyperglycemic condition. Using optimal FPG cut-off points for two-step strategy in Chinese population may be more effective and less costly for reducing the missed diagnosis of hyperglycemic condition. PMID:25785585

  9. How do alternative root water uptake models affect the inverse estimation of soil hydraulic parameters and the prediction of evapotranspiration?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gayler, Sebastian; Salima-Sultana, Daisy; Selle, Benny; Ingwersen, Joachim; Wizemann, Hans-Dieter; Högy, Petra; Streck, Thilo

    2016-04-01

    Soil water extraction by roots affects the dynamics and distribution of soil moisture and controls transpiration, which influences soil-vegetation-atmosphere feedback processes. Consequently, root water uptake requires close attention when predicting water fluxes across the land surface, e.g., in agricultural crop models or in land surface schemes of weather and climate models. The key parameters for a successful simultaneous simulation of soil moisture dynamics and evapotranspiration in Richards equation-based models are the soil hydraulic parameters, which describe the shapes of the soil water retention curve and the soil hydraulic conductivity curve. As measurements of these parameters are expensive and their estimation from basic soil data via pedotransfer functions is rather inaccurate, the values of the soil hydraulic parameters are frequently inversely estimated by fitting the model to measured time series of soil water content and evapotranspiration. It is common to simulate root water uptake and transpiration by simple stress functions, which describe from which soil layer water is absorbed by roots and predict when total crop transpiration is decreased in case of soil water limitations. As for most of the biogeophysical processes simulated in crop and land surface models, there exist several alternative functional relationships for simulating root water uptake and there is no clear reason for preferring one process representation over another. The error associated with alternative representations of root water uptake, however, contributes to structural model uncertainty and the choice of the root water uptake model may have a significant impact on the values of the soil hydraulic parameters estimated inversely. In this study, we use the agroecosystem model system Expert-N to simulate soil moisture dynamics and evapotranspiration at three agricultural field sites located in two contrasting regions in Southwest Germany (Kraichgau, Swabian Alb). The Richards

  10. Infectious disease prevalence in Los Angeles county--a comparison to national estimates, 1999-2004 birth rates for U.S. teenagers reach historic lows for all age and ethnic groups.

    PubMed

    Kruszon-Moran, Deanna; Porter, Kathryn S; McQuillan, Geraldine; Billioux, Veena Goud; Kim-Farley, Robert; Hirsch, Rosemarie

    2012-04-01

    This is the first time seroprevalence of antibody to these nine infectious diseases have been available for LAC. Differences in the race and ethnicity distribution of the United States and LAC were observed. Because disease prevalence varies by race and ethnicity, in some instances these demographic differences affected the population differences seen between the United States and LAC in the seroprevalence of the infectious diseases reported in this study. Seroprevalence for HAV was higher in LAC as compared with the United States among the total population and among the Mexican-American population. California is 1 of 11 states in which routine vaccination of children was recommended in 1999 by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) because mean incidence rates in these states were at least twice the national mean from 1987–1997 (9). Seroprevalence to CMV and T. gondii have been shown to be higher among Mexican-American persons then other race and ethnicity groups (1,3). The higher seropositivity for CMV and T. gondii among persons from LAC is due to the higher proportion of Mexican-American persons in the LAC population. No differences in seropositivity were observed when comparing Mexican-American persons in the United States and LAC for these two outcomes. No significant differences in seroprevalence between the United States and LAC were seen for measles, mumps, rubella, varicella, HSV-1, and HSV-2. Estimates of seropositivity from immunization or disease for LAC may assist in policy development, program planning, and measuring health disparities. PMID:22617137

  11. Estimating the incidence, prevalence and true cost of asthma in the UK: secondary analysis of national stand-alone and linked databases in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales—a study protocol

    PubMed Central

    Mukherjee, Mome; Gupta, Ramyani; Farr, Angela; Heaven, Martin; Stoddart, Andrew; Nwaru, Bright I; Fitzsimmons, Deborah; Chamberlain, George; Bandyopadhyay, Amrita; Fischbacher, Colin; Dibben, Christopher; Shields, Michael; Phillips, Ceri; Strachan, David; Davies, Gwyneth; McKinstry, Brian; Sheikh, Aziz

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Asthma is now one of the most common long-term conditions in the UK. It is therefore important to develop a comprehensive appreciation of the healthcare and societal costs in order to inform decisions on care provision and planning. We plan to build on our earlier estimates of national prevalence and costs from asthma by filling the data gaps previously identified in relation to healthcare and broadening the field of enquiry to include societal costs. This work will provide the first UK-wide estimates of the costs of asthma. In the context of asthma for the UK and its member countries (ie, England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales), we seek to: (1) produce a detailed overview of estimates of incidence, prevalence and healthcare utilisation; (2) estimate health and societal costs; (3) identify any remaining information gaps and explore the feasibility of filling these and (4) provide insights into future research that has the potential to inform changes in policy leading to the provision of more cost-effective care. Methods and analysis Secondary analyses of data from national health surveys, primary care, prescribing, emergency care, hospital, mortality and administrative data sources will be undertaken to estimate prevalence, healthcare utilisation and outcomes from asthma. Data linkages and economic modelling will be undertaken in an attempt to populate data gaps and estimate costs. Separate prevalence and cost estimates will be calculated for each of the UK-member countries and these will then be aggregated to generate UK-wide estimates. Ethics and dissemination Approvals have been obtained from the NHS Scotland Information Services Division's Privacy Advisory Committee, the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Collaboration Review System, the NHS South-East Scotland Research Ethics Service and The University of Edinburgh's Centre for Population Health Sciences Research Ethics Committee. We will produce a report for Asthma-UK, submit papers to

  12. Factors affecting abundance and prevalence of blood fluke, Cardicola forsteri, infection in commercially ranched southern bluefin tuna, Thunnus maccoyii, in Australia.

    PubMed

    Aiken, Hamish M; Hayward, Craig J; Nowak, Barbara F

    2015-05-30

    A survey of blood fluke, Cardicola forsteri, infection in ranched southern bluefin tuna, Thunnus maccoyii, was undertaken over three farming seasons, from March 2004 to September 2006. Analyses of covariance and logistic regression were used to explore the effects of company, year, season, time in culture, and condition index on intensity, abundance and prevalence of blood fluke infection. Average prevalence of blood fluke infection was 62.64% over the period of the survey. Average intensity was 6.20 (± 0.57) fluke per infected host and the average abundance was 3.70 (± 0.57) fluke per host. Year did not influence mean intensity or abundance although a significant decrease in prevalence in 2005 was evident. Tuna harvested in winter had a significantly greater abundance and prevalence of blood fluke than the tuna harvested in autumn. No effect of intensity or abundance of infection was observed on the condition of the infected tuna. A universal factor in explaining variation in C. forsteri intensity, abundance and prevalence was company. Differences in infection levels between tuna from different companies may be related to differences in husbandry measures employed on each farm, or due to different average sizes of tuna farmed by each of the companies, or due to the location of the operations.

  13. The Prevalence of Sexual Behavior Stigma Affecting Gay Men and Other Men Who Have Sex with Men Across Sub-Saharan Africa and in the United States

    PubMed Central

    Sanchez, Travis Howard; Sullivan, Patrick Sean; Ketende, Sosthenes; Lyons, Carrie; Charurat, Manhattan E; Drame, Fatou Maria; Diouf, Daouda; Ezouatchi, Rebecca; Kouanda, Seni; Anato, Simplice; Mothopeng, Tampose; Mnisi, Zandile; Baral, Stefan David

    2016-01-01

    Background There has been increased attention for the need to reduce stigma related to sexual behaviors among gay men and other men who have sex with men (MSM) as part of comprehensive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention and treatment programming. However, most studies focused on measuring and mitigating stigma have been in high-income settings, challenging the ability to characterize the transferability of these findings because of lack of consistent metrics across settings. Objective The objective of these analyses is to describe the prevalence of sexual behavior stigma in the United States, and to compare the prevalence of sexual behavior stigma between MSM in Southern and Western Africa and in the United States using consistent metrics. Methods The same 13 sexual behavior stigma items were administered in face-to-face interviews to 4285 MSM recruited in multiple studies from 2013 to 2016 from 7 Sub-Saharan African countries and to 2590 MSM from the 2015 American Men’s Internet Survey (AMIS), an anonymous Web-based behavioral survey. We limited the study sample to men who reported anal sex with a man at least once in the past 12 months and men who were aged 18 years and older. Unadjusted and adjusted prevalence ratios were used to compare the prevalence of stigma between groups. Results Within the United States, prevalence of sexual behavior stigma did not vary substantially by race/ethnicity or geographic region except in a few instances. Feeling afraid to seek health care, avoiding health care, feeling like police refused to protect, being blackmailed, and being raped were more commonly reported in rural versus urban settings in the United States (P<.05 for all). In the United States, West Africa, and Southern Africa, MSM reported verbal harassment as the most common form of stigma. Disclosure of same-sex practices to family members increased prevalence of reported stigma from family members within all geographic settings (P<.001 for all). After

  14. Prevalence and characteristics of women at risk for an alcohol-exposed pregnancy (AEP) in the United States: estimates from the National Survey of Family Growth.

    PubMed

    Cannon, Michael J; Guo, Jing; Denny, Clark H; Green, Patricia P; Miracle, Heidi; Sniezek, Joseph E; Floyd, R Louise

    2015-04-01

    Non-pregnant women can avoid alcohol-exposed pregnancies (AEPs) by modifying drinking and/or contraceptive practices. The purpose of this study was to estimate the number and characteristics of women in the United States who are at risk of AEPs. We analyzed data from in-person interviews obtained from a national probability sample (i.e., the National Survey of Family Growth) of reproductive-aged women conducted from January 2002 to March 2003. To be at risk of AEP, a woman had to have met the following criteria in the last month: (1) was drinking; (2) had vaginal intercourse with a man; and (3) did not use contraception. During a 1-month period, nearly 2 million U.S. women were at risk of an AEP (95 % confidence interval 1,760,079-2,288,104), including more than 600,000 who were binge drinking. Thus, 3.4 %, or 1 in 30, of all non-pregnant women were at risk of an AEP. Most demographic and behavioral characteristics were not clearly associated with AEP risk. However, pregnancy intention was strongly associated with AEP risk (prevalence ratio = 12.0, P < 0.001) because women often continued to drink even after they stopped using contraception. Nearly 2 million U.S. women are at AEP risk and therefore at risk of having children born with fetal alcohol spectrum disorders. For pregnant women and women intending a pregnancy, there is an urgent need for wider implementation of prevention programs and policy approaches that can reduce the risk for this serious public health problem.

  15. Discordance between Prevalent Vertebral Fracture and Vertebral Strength Estimated by the Finite Element Method Based on Quantitative Computed Tomography in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Bone fragility is increased in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), but a useful method to estimate bone fragility in T2DM patients is lacking because bone mineral density alone is not sufficient to assess the risk of fracture. This study investigated the association between prevalent vertebral fractures (VFs) and the vertebral strength index estimated by the quantitative computed tomography-based nonlinear finite element method (QCT-based nonlinear FEM) using multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) for clinical practice use. Research Design and Methods A cross-sectional observational study was conducted on 54 postmenopausal women and 92 men over 50 years of age, all of whom had T2DM. The vertebral strength index was compared in patients with and without VFs confirmed by spinal radiographs. A standard FEM procedure was performed with the application of known parameters for the bone material properties obtained from nondiabetic subjects. Results A total of 20 women (37.0%) and 39 men (42.4%) with VFs were identified. The vertebral strength index was significantly higher in the men than in the women (P<0.01). Multiple regression analysis demonstrated that the vertebral strength index was significantly and positively correlated with the spinal bone mineral density (BMD) and inversely associated with age in both genders. There were no significant differences in the parameters, including the vertebral strength index, between patients with and without VFs. Logistic regression analysis adjusted for age, spine BMD, BMI, HbA1c, and duration of T2DM did not indicate a significant relationship between the vertebral strength index and the presence of VFs. Conclusion The vertebral strength index calculated by QCT-based nonlinear FEM using material property parameters obtained from nondiabetic subjects, whose risk of fracture is lower than that of T2DM patients, was not significantly associated with bone fragility in patients with T2DM. This discordance

  16. Comparison of the information provided by electronic health records data and a population health survey to estimate prevalence of selected health conditions and multimorbidity

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Health surveys (HS) are a well-established methodology for measuring the health status of a population. The relative merit of using information based on HS versus electronic health records (EHR) to measure multimorbidity has not been established. Our study had two objectives: 1) to measure and compare the prevalence and distribution of multimorbidity in HS and EHR data, and 2) to test specific hypotheses about potential differences between HS and EHR reporting of diseases with a symptoms-based diagnosis and those requiring diagnostic testing. Methods Cross-sectional study using data from a periodic HS conducted by the Catalan government and from EHR covering 80% of the Catalan population aged 15 years and older. We determined the prevalence of 27 selected health conditions in both data sources, calculated the prevalence and distribution of multimorbidity (defined as the presence of ≥2 of the selected conditions), and determined multimorbidity patterns. We tested two hypotheses: a) health conditions requiring diagnostic tests for their diagnosis and management would be more prevalent in the EHR; and b) symptoms-based health problems would be more prevalent in the HS data. Results We analysed 15,926 HS interviews and 1,597,258 EHRs. The profile of the EHR sample was 52% women, average age 47 years (standard deviation: 18.8), and 68% having at least one of the selected health conditions, the 3 most prevalent being hypertension (20%), depression or anxiety (16%) and mental disorders (15%). Multimorbidity was higher in HS than in EHR data (60% vs. 43%, respectively, for ages 15-75+, P <0.001, and 91% vs. 83% in participants aged ≥65 years, P <0.001). The most prevalent multimorbidity cluster was cardiovascular. Circulation disorders (other than varicose veins), chronic allergies, neck pain, haemorrhoids, migraine or frequent headaches and chronic constipation were more prevalent in the HS. Most symptomatic conditions (71%) had a higher prevalence in

  17. Prevalence of Metabolic Syndrome and Affecting Factors among Individuals Aged 30 and over in Balçova District of İzmir

    PubMed Central

    Soysal, Ahmet; Şimşek, Hatice; Doğanay, Sinem; Günay, Türkan

    2016-01-01

    Background: The studies have shown that metabolic syndrome (MetS) leads to an increase twice as much in cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and four times as much in diabetes mellitus (DM) prevalence since the second half of the 20th century. Aims: This study aims to determine and discuss the prevalence of the MetS and co- factors among individuals at the age of 30 and over in Balcova district of İzmir province according to the American National Cholesterol Education Program - Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III) and InternationalDiabetes Federation (IDF) criteria. Study Design: Cross-sectional study. Methods: Data obtained from the Balcova Heart Project in İzmir were used in the study. The dependent variable of the study is MetS existence. The independent variables were socio-demographic characteristics (age, gender, education level, and marital status), self-perceived economic status, physical activity, smoking status, healthy nutrition and body mass index (BMI). Results: The prevalence of MetS was 36.9% according to the diagnostic criteria of IDF, while it was 27.4% according to ATP III criteria. According to the both criteria, increasing age, low education, poor economic status perception, physical inactivity, and obesity increase the risk of MetS. Apart from the IDF criteria, being female and a current smoker increase the risk of the MetS in the NCEP-ATP III. Conclusion: Compared to educational studies of MetS as of today, which are community and health-oriented studies, it is challenging that the prevalence of MetS was found to be high for both criteria in our study. Therefore, in particular, primary health care doctors must be prompted to protect the public against DM and CVD in particular. PMID:27308078

  18. The Prevalence of Syphilis in England and Wales on the Eve of the Great War: Re-visiting the Estimates of the Royal Commission on Venereal Diseases 1913–1916

    PubMed Central

    Szreter, Simon

    2014-01-01

    Public fears of widespread venereal disease led in 1913 to the appointment of The Royal Commission on Venereal Diseases (RCVD). In 1916 its Final Report offered only a single cautious and somewhat imprecise summary statement about the likely prevalence of venereal diseases in England and Wales. Although the significance of contemporary attitudes to venereal disease has attracted a good deal of historiographic attention, no historian or demographer has since investigated this aspect of the Royal Commission's work. This article critically re-examines the most important quantitative evidence presented to the Royal Commission relating to the years immediately prior to the First World War. It utilises this evidence to produce new estimates of the probable prevalence of syphilis among adult males, both nationally and among certain geographical divisions and social groups in the national population; and also to offer a comment on the likely prevalence of gonorrhoea. PMID:25067890

  19. The Prevalence of Syphilis in England and Wales on the Eve of the Great War: Re-visiting the Estimates of the Royal Commission on Venereal Diseases 1913-1916.

    PubMed

    Szreter, Simon

    2014-08-01

    Public fears of widespread venereal disease led in 1913 to the appointment of The Royal Commission on Venereal Diseases (RCVD). In 1916 its Final Report offered only a single cautious and somewhat imprecise summary statement about the likely prevalence of venereal diseases in England and Wales. Although the significance of contemporary attitudes to venereal disease has attracted a good deal of historiographic attention, no historian or demographer has since investigated this aspect of the Royal Commission's work. This article critically re-examines the most important quantitative evidence presented to the Royal Commission relating to the years immediately prior to the First World War. It utilises this evidence to produce new estimates of the probable prevalence of syphilis among adult males, both nationally and among certain geographical divisions and social groups in the national population; and also to offer a comment on the likely prevalence of gonorrhoea.

  20. The Prevalence of Syphilis in England and Wales on the Eve of the Great War: Re-visiting the Estimates of the Royal Commission on Venereal Diseases 1913-1916.

    PubMed

    Szreter, Simon

    2014-08-01

    Public fears of widespread venereal disease led in 1913 to the appointment of The Royal Commission on Venereal Diseases (RCVD). In 1916 its Final Report offered only a single cautious and somewhat imprecise summary statement about the likely prevalence of venereal diseases in England and Wales. Although the significance of contemporary attitudes to venereal disease has attracted a good deal of historiographic attention, no historian or demographer has since investigated this aspect of the Royal Commission's work. This article critically re-examines the most important quantitative evidence presented to the Royal Commission relating to the years immediately prior to the First World War. It utilises this evidence to produce new estimates of the probable prevalence of syphilis among adult males, both nationally and among certain geographical divisions and social groups in the national population; and also to offer a comment on the likely prevalence of gonorrhoea. PMID:25067890

  1. Estimating upper bounds for occupancy and number of manatees in areas potentially affected by oil from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

    PubMed

    Martin, Julien; Edwards, Holly H; Bled, Florent; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J; Dupuis, Jérôme A; Gardner, Beth; Koslovsky, Stacie M; Aven, Allen M; Ward-Geiger, Leslie I; Carmichael, Ruth H; Fagan, Daniel E; Ross, Monica A; Reinert, Thomas R

    2014-01-01

    The explosion of the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform created the largest marine oil spill in U.S. history. As part of the Natural Resource Damage Assessment process, we applied an innovative modeling approach to obtain upper estimates for occupancy and for number of manatees in areas potentially affected by the oil spill. Our data consisted of aerial survey counts in waters of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama and Mississippi. Our method, which uses a Bayesian approach, allows for the propagation of uncertainty associated with estimates from empirical data and from the published literature. We illustrate that it is possible to derive estimates of occupancy rate and upper estimates of the number of manatees present at the time of sampling, even when no manatees were observed in our sampled plots during surveys. We estimated that fewer than 2.4% of potentially affected manatee habitat in our Florida study area may have been occupied by manatees. The upper estimate for the number of manatees present in potentially impacted areas (within our study area) was estimated with our model to be 74 (95%CI 46 to 107). This upper estimate for the number of manatees was conditioned on the upper 95%CI value of the occupancy rate. In other words, based on our estimates, it is highly probable that there were 107 or fewer manatees in our study area during the time of our surveys. Because our analyses apply to habitats considered likely manatee habitats, our inference is restricted to these sites and to the time frame of our surveys. Given that manatees may be hard to see during aerial surveys, it was important to account for imperfect detection. The approach that we described can be useful for determining the best allocation of resources for monitoring and conservation.

  2. Estimating upper bounds for occupancy and number of manatees in areas potentially affected by oil from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

    PubMed

    Martin, Julien; Edwards, Holly H; Bled, Florent; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J; Dupuis, Jérôme A; Gardner, Beth; Koslovsky, Stacie M; Aven, Allen M; Ward-Geiger, Leslie I; Carmichael, Ruth H; Fagan, Daniel E; Ross, Monica A; Reinert, Thomas R

    2014-01-01

    The explosion of the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform created the largest marine oil spill in U.S. history. As part of the Natural Resource Damage Assessment process, we applied an innovative modeling approach to obtain upper estimates for occupancy and for number of manatees in areas potentially affected by the oil spill. Our data consisted of aerial survey counts in waters of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama and Mississippi. Our method, which uses a Bayesian approach, allows for the propagation of uncertainty associated with estimates from empirical data and from the published literature. We illustrate that it is possible to derive estimates of occupancy rate and upper estimates of the number of manatees present at the time of sampling, even when no manatees were observed in our sampled plots during surveys. We estimated that fewer than 2.4% of potentially affected manatee habitat in our Florida study area may have been occupied by manatees. The upper estimate for the number of manatees present in potentially impacted areas (within our study area) was estimated with our model to be 74 (95%CI 46 to 107). This upper estimate for the number of manatees was conditioned on the upper 95%CI value of the occupancy rate. In other words, based on our estimates, it is highly probable that there were 107 or fewer manatees in our study area during the time of our surveys. Because our analyses apply to habitats considered likely manatee habitats, our inference is restricted to these sites and to the time frame of our surveys. Given that manatees may be hard to see during aerial surveys, it was important to account for imperfect detection. The approach that we described can be useful for determining the best allocation of resources for monitoring and conservation. PMID:24670971

  3. Estimating Upper Bounds for Occupancy and Number of Manatees in Areas Potentially Affected by Oil from the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

    PubMed Central

    Martin, Julien; Edwards, Holly H.; Bled, Florent; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.; Dupuis, Jérôme A.; Gardner, Beth; Koslovsky, Stacie M.; Aven, Allen M.; Ward-Geiger, Leslie I.; Carmichael, Ruth H.; Fagan, Daniel E.; Ross, Monica A.; Reinert, Thomas R.

    2014-01-01

    The explosion of the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform created the largest marine oil spill in U.S. history. As part of the Natural Resource Damage Assessment process, we applied an innovative modeling approach to obtain upper estimates for occupancy and for number of manatees in areas potentially affected by the oil spill. Our data consisted of aerial survey counts in waters of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama and Mississippi. Our method, which uses a Bayesian approach, allows for the propagation of uncertainty associated with estimates from empirical data and from the published literature. We illustrate that it is possible to derive estimates of occupancy rate and upper estimates of the number of manatees present at the time of sampling, even when no manatees were observed in our sampled plots during surveys. We estimated that fewer than 2.4% of potentially affected manatee habitat in our Florida study area may have been occupied by manatees. The upper estimate for the number of manatees present in potentially impacted areas (within our study area) was estimated with our model to be 74 (95%CI 46 to 107). This upper estimate for the number of manatees was conditioned on the upper 95%CI value of the occupancy rate. In other words, based on our estimates, it is highly probable that there were 107 or fewer manatees in our study area during the time of our surveys. Because our analyses apply to habitats considered likely manatee habitats, our inference is restricted to these sites and to the time frame of our surveys. Given that manatees may be hard to see during aerial surveys, it was important to account for imperfect detection. The approach that we described can be useful for determining the best allocation of resources for monitoring and conservation. PMID:24670971

  4. Estimating benthic secondary production from aquatic insect emergence in streams affected by mountaintop removal coal mining, West Virginia USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Mountaintop removal and valley fill (MTR/VF) coal mining recountours the Appalachian landscape, buries headwater stream channels, and degrades downstream water quality. The goal of this study was to compare benthic community production estimates, based on seasonal insect emergen...

  5. Population-based incidence and prevalence of facioscapulohumeral dystrophy

    PubMed Central

    Arnts, Hisse; van der Maarel, Silvère M.; Padberg, George W.; Verschuuren, Jan J.G.M.; Bakker, Egbert; Weinreich, Stephanie S.; Verbeek, André L.M.; van Engelen, Baziel G.M.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To determine the incidence and prevalence of facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy (FSHD) in the Netherlands. Methods: Using 3-source capture-recapture methodology, we estimated the total yearly number of newly found symptomatic individuals with FSHD, including those not registered in any of the 3 sources. To this end, symptomatic individuals with FSHD were available from 3 large population-based registries in the Netherlands if diagnosed within a 10-year period (January 1, 2001 to December 31, 2010). Multiplication of the incidence and disease duration delivered the prevalence estimate. Results: On average, 52 people are newly diagnosed with FSHD every year. This results in an incidence rate of 0.3/100,000 person-years in the Netherlands. The prevalence rate was 12/100,000, equivalent to 2,000 affected individuals. Conclusions: We present population-based incidence and prevalence estimates regarding symptomatic individuals with FSHD, including an estimation of the number of symptomatic individuals not present in any of the 3 used registries. This study shows that the total number of symptomatic persons with FSHD in the population may well be underestimated and a considerable number of affected individuals remain undiagnosed. This suggests that FSHD is one of the most prevalent neuromuscular disorders. PMID:25122204

  6. Factors affecting the intensity of epidermal papillomatosis in populations of roach, Rutilus rutilus (L.), estimated as scale coverage.

    PubMed

    Korkea-aho, T; Vainikka, A; Taskinen, J

    2006-02-01

    Studies of epidermal papillomatosis in fish populations have only rarely focused on the intensity of the disease, i.e. the number and size of papillomas. Furthermore, the methods used to evaluate the intensity of papillomatosis have not been standardized. We tested the reliability of a method based on counting of scales covered by papilloma tumours in roach, Rutilus rutilus (L). In addition, we studied the frequency distributions of the number of scales covered by papillomas within populations, evaluated the correlation between the prevalence and mean intensity of the disease among populations and examined the intensity of papillomatosis in roach with respect to sex and size of fish. Reliability of the scale coverage method was high. Therefore, the method could offer an effective way to determine the intensity of papillomatosis in fish species with large scales. The frequency distribution of the scale coverage of papillomas was highly aggregated within all populations studied. The mean intensity of papillomatosis increased with the size of the fish and was higher in males than in females. However, there was no correlation between the mean intensity and prevalence of the disease among the 19 roach populations studied. PMID:16436122

  7. Prevalence of Mental Disorders in the South-East of Spain, One of the European Regions Most Affected by the Economic Crisis: The Cross-Sectional PEGASUS-Murcia Project

    PubMed Central

    Navarro-Mateu, Fernando; Tormo, Mª José; Salmerón, Diego; Vilagut, Gemma; Navarro, Carmen; Ruíz-Merino, Guadalupe; Escámez, Teresa; Júdez, Javier; Martínez, Salvador; Kessler, Ron C.; Alonso, Jordi

    2015-01-01

    estimates for Spain. Prevalence was strongly associated with exposure to stressors related to the economic crisis. PMID:26394150

  8. Use of portable antennas to estimate abundance of PIT-tagged fish in small streams: Factors affecting detection probability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Horton, Gregg E.; Letcher, Benjamin H.

    2010-01-01

    Portable passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag antenna systems can be valuable in providing reliable estimates of the abundance of tagged Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in small streams under a wide range of conditions. We developed and employed PIT tag antenna wand techniques in two controlled experiments and an additional case study to examine the factors that influenced our ability to estimate population size. We used Pollock's robust-design capture–mark–recapture model to obtain estimates of the probability of first detection (p), the probability of redetection (c), and abundance (N) in the two controlled experiments. First, we conducted an experiment in which tags were hidden in fixed locations. Although p and c varied among the three observers and among the three passes that each observer conducted, the estimates of N were identical to the true values and did not vary among observers. In the second experiment using free-swimming tagged fish, p and c varied among passes and time of day. Additionally, estimates of N varied between day and night and among age-classes but were within 10% of the true population size. In the case study, we used the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model to examine the variation in p, and we compared counts of tagged fish found with the antenna wand with counts collected via electrofishing. In that study, we found that although p varied for age-classes, sample dates, and time of day, antenna and electrofishing estimates of N were similar, indicating that population size can be reliably estimated via PIT tag antenna wands. However, factors such as the observer, time of day, age of fish, and stream discharge can influence the initial and subsequent detection probabilities.

  9. Affective Disorders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beach, Steven R. H.; Whisman, Mark A.

    2012-01-01

    Depression is a heterogeneous disorder with lifetime prevalence of "major depressive disorder" estimated to be 16.2%. Although the disorder is common and impairs functioning, it often goes untreated, with less than adequate response even when treated. We review research indicating the likely value of utilizing currently available, well-validated,…

  10. Mentoring and Organizational Citizenship Behavior: Estimating the Mediating Effects of Organization-Based Self-Esteem and Affective Commitment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ghosh, Rajashi; Reio, Thomas G., Jr.; Haynes, Ray K.

    2012-01-01

    This study explored how perceptions of reciprocal support in mentoring influence mentors' and proteges' intent to extend work-related help to coworkers in organizations. Our findings shed light on the role that organization-based self-esteem (OBSE) and affective organizational commitment (AOC) play as mediators in transmitting the effect of…

  11. Comparison of Respondent Driven Sampling Estimators to Determine HIV Prevalence and Population Characteristics among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Moscow, Russia

    PubMed Central

    Wirtz, Andrea L.; Mehta, Shruti H.; Latkin, Carl; Zelaya, Carla E.; Galai, Noya; Peryshkina, Alena; Mogilnyi, Vladimir; Dzhigun, Petr; Kostetskaya, Irina; Beyrer, Chris

    2016-01-01

    Analytically distinct estimators have been proposed for the calculation of population-based estimates derived from respondent-driven sampling (RDS), yet there have been few comparisons of the inferences from these estimators using empirical data. We compared estimates produced by unweighted analysis used to calculate sample proportions and by three available estimators that are used to calculate population proportions, RDS-I, RDS-II (Volz-Heckathorn), and Gile’s RDS-SS. Data were derived from a cross-sectional, RDS study of men who have sex with men (MSM) conducted from October 2010 to April 2013 in Moscow, Russia (N = 1,376, recruitment depth: 31 waves). Analyses investigated the influence of key parameters: recruitment depth, homophily, and network size on sample and population estimates. Variability in results produced by the estimators and recruitment depth were statistically compared using the coefficient of variation (CV). Sample proportions had the least variability across different recruitment depths, compared to the RDS estimators. Population estimates tended to differ at lower recruitment depth but were approximately equal after reaching sampling equilibrium, highlighting the importance of sampling to greater recruitment depth. All estimators incorporate inverse probability weighting using self-reported network size, explaining the similarities in across population estimates and the difference of these estimates relative to sample proportions. Current biases and limitations associated with RDS estimators are discussed. PMID:27248818

  12. Prevalence of bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in persistently infected cattle and BVDV subtypes in affected cattle in beef herds in south central United States

    PubMed Central

    Fulton, Robert W.; Whitley, Evan M.; Johnson, Bill J.; Ridpath, Julia F.; Kapil, Sanjay; Burge, Lurinda J.; Cook, Billy J.; Confer, Anthony W.

    2009-01-01

    The prevalence of bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in persistently infected (PI) cattle in beef breeding herds was determined using 30 herds with 4530 calves. The samples were collected by ear notches and tested for BVDV antigens using immunohistochemistry (IHC) and antigen capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ACE). Animals with initial positives on both IHC and ACE were sampled again using both tests and serums were collected for viral propagation and sequencing of a viral genomic region, 5′-untranslated region (5′-UTR) for viral subtyping. Samples were also collected from the dams of PI calves. There were 25 PI calves from 4530 samples (0.55%) and these PI calves were from 5 of the 30 herds (16.7%). Two herds had multiple PI calves and 3 herds had only 1 PI calf. Only 1 of the 25 dams with a PI calf was also PI (4.0%). The subtype of all the PI isolates was BVDV1b. Histories of the ranches indicated 23 out of 30 had herd additions of untested breeding females. Twenty-four of the 30 herds had adult cowherd vaccinations against BVDV, primarily using killed BVDV vaccines at pregnancy examination. PMID:20046630

  13. Prevalence of bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in persistently infected cattle and BVDV subtypes in affected cattle in beef herds in south central United States.

    PubMed

    Fulton, Robert W; Whitley, Evan M; Johnson, Bill J; Ridpath, Julia F; Kapil, Sanjay; Burge, Lurinda J; Cook, Billy J; Confer, Anthony W

    2009-10-01

    The prevalence of bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in persistently infected (PI) cattle in beef breeding herds was determined using 30 herds with 4530 calves. The samples were collected by ear notches and tested for BVDV antigens using immunohistochemistry (IHC) and antigen capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ACE). Animals with initial positives on both IHC and ACE were sampled again using both tests and serums were collected for viral propagation and sequencing of a viral genomic region, 5'-untranslated region (5'-UTR) for viral subtyping. Samples were also collected from the dams of PI calves. There were 25 PI calves from 4530 samples (0.55%) and these PI calves were from 5 of the 30 herds (16.7%). Two herds had multiple PI calves and 3 herds had only 1 PI calf. Only 1 of the 25 dams with a PI calf was also PI (4.0%). The subtype of all the PI isolates was BVDV1b. Histories of the ranches indicated 23 out of 30 had herd additions of untested breeding females. Twenty-four of the 30 herds had adult cowherd vaccinations against BVDV, primarily using killed BVDV vaccines at pregnancy examination.

  14. Prevalence of bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in persistently infected cattle and BVDV subtypes in affected cattle in beef herds in south central United States.

    PubMed

    Fulton, Robert W; Whitley, Evan M; Johnson, Bill J; Ridpath, Julia F; Kapil, Sanjay; Burge, Lurinda J; Cook, Billy J; Confer, Anthony W

    2009-10-01

    The prevalence of bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in persistently infected (PI) cattle in beef breeding herds was determined using 30 herds with 4530 calves. The samples were collected by ear notches and tested for BVDV antigens using immunohistochemistry (IHC) and antigen capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ACE). Animals with initial positives on both IHC and ACE were sampled again using both tests and serums were collected for viral propagation and sequencing of a viral genomic region, 5'-untranslated region (5'-UTR) for viral subtyping. Samples were also collected from the dams of PI calves. There were 25 PI calves from 4530 samples (0.55%) and these PI calves were from 5 of the 30 herds (16.7%). Two herds had multiple PI calves and 3 herds had only 1 PI calf. Only 1 of the 25 dams with a PI calf was also PI (4.0%). The subtype of all the PI isolates was BVDV1b. Histories of the ranches indicated 23 out of 30 had herd additions of untested breeding females. Twenty-four of the 30 herds had adult cowherd vaccinations against BVDV, primarily using killed BVDV vaccines at pregnancy examination. PMID:20046630

  15. Deposition of 7Be to Bermuda and the regional ocean: Environmental factors affecting estimates of atmospheric flux to the ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kadko, David; Prospero, Joseph

    2011-02-01

    The distribution of 7Be in ocean surface waters is used as tracer of upper ocean transport and atmospheric deposition processes. However, there is very little ocean deposition data available to characterize the temporal and spatial input of 7Be to the oceans and test model results. Here we measure the deposition of 7Be in bulk collectors at two sites at Bermuda over a span of nearly 2 years (April 2007 to January 2009) and compare these rates to the flux required to sustain the inventory of 7Be measured in the nearby Sargasso Sea. The Tudor Hill collector site undersampled (by ˜40%) both the rainfall compared to other Bermuda sites and the 7Be flux required for the ocean inventory. On the other hand, the 7Be flux captured at the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences station site (0.048 dpm cm-2 d-1) matched that expected from the ocean observations. Previously measured long-term atmospheric concentration of 7Be in surface air at Bermuda was used to estimate deposition velocities and scavenging ratios, and our estimates in this marine environment were found to be similar to those measured in continental regions. The deposition of 7Be to the oceans is overwhelmingly determined by wet processes; dry deposition to the ocean surface accounts for only a few percent, at most, of the total deposition to the ocean. We place these measurements in a longer-term and large-scale spatial context by using climatological rainfall data on Bermuda and ocean rainfall estimates from the Global Precipitation Climatology Program and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission.

  16. How the cross-sectional discontinuity between ear canal and probe affects the ear canal length estimation.

    PubMed

    Zebian, Makram; Hensel, Johannes; Fedtke, Thomas

    2012-07-01

    Many ear canal probes both deliver and measure sound via narrow tubes. This study investigates the effect of the cross-sectional discontinuity at the interface between ear canal models and the connecting tubes of a commercially available otoacoustic emission probe on the "acoustically" estimated cavity lengths. Rigid cavities having the same length but different diameters were produced, and modeled by the finite element method. Cavities with a diameter larger than 8 mm had acoustic lengths that considerably overestimated the real geometry. A length correction was derived, which, in most applications, compensates for the measurement errors emerging from the discontinuity effects.

  17. The Importance of Temporal Design: How Do Measurement Intervals Affect the Accuracy and Efficiency of Parameter Estimates in Longitudinal Research?

    PubMed

    Timmons, Adela C; Preacher, Kristopher J

    2015-01-01

    The timing (spacing) of assessments is an important component of longitudinal research. The purpose of the present study is to determine methods of timing the collection of longitudinal data that provide better parameter recovery in mixed effects nonlinear growth modeling. A simulation study was conducted, varying function type, as well as the number of measurement occasions, in order to examine the effect of timing on the accuracy and efficiency of parameter estimates. The number of measurement occasions was associated with greater efficiency for all functional forms and was associated with greater accuracy for the intrinsically nonlinear functions. In general, concentrating measurement occasions toward the left or at the extremes was associated with increased efficiency when estimating the intercepts of intrinsically linear functions, and concentrating values where the curvature of the function was greatest generally resulted in the best recovery for intrinsically nonlinear functions. Results from this study can be used in conjunction with theory to improve the design of longitudinal research studies. In addition, an R program is provided for researchers to run customized simulations to identify optimal sampling schedules for their own research.

  18. Prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in Luxembourg according to the Joint Interim Statement definition estimated from the ORISCAV-LUX study

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background The prevalence of the metabolic syndrome (MS) has been determined in many countries worldwide but never in Luxembourg. This research aimed to 1) establish the gender- and age-specific prevalence of MS and its components in the general adult population of Luxembourg, according to the most recent Joint Interim Statement (JIS) definition, by using both the high and low cut-off points to define abdominal obesity, and 2) compare and assess the degree of agreement with the Revised National Cholesterol Education Programme-Adult Treatment Panel III (R-ATPIII) and the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) definitions. Methods A representative stratified random sample of 1349 European subjects, aged 18-69 years, participated to ORISCAV-LUX survey. Logistic regression and odds ratios (OR) were used to study MS prevalence with respect to gender and age. The Framingham risk score (FRS) to predict the 10-year coronary heart disease (CHD) risk was calculated to compare the proportion of MS cases below or above 20%, according to both high and low waist circumference (WC) thresholds. Cohen's kappa coefficient (κ) was utilized to measure the degree of agreement between MS definitions. Results The prevalence of the MS defined by the JIS was 28.0% and 24.7% when using the low (94/80) and the high (102/88) WC cut-off points, respectively. The prevalence was significantly higher in men than in women (OR = 2.6 and 2.3 for the low and high WC thresholds), as were all components of the MS except abdominal obesity measured by both thresholds. It also increased with age (OR values in age categories ranging from 2.7 to 28 when compared to the younger subjects for low WC and from 3.3 to 31 for the high WC cut-offs). The 10-year predicted risk of CHD by FRS did not depend on the threshold used. Globally, excellent agreement was observed between the three definitions of MS (κ= 0.89), in particular between JIS and IDF (κ = 0.93). Agreement was significantly higher in women than in

  19. Measuring IPDE-SQ personality disorder prevalence in pre-sentence and early-stage prison populations, with sub-type estimates.

    PubMed

    Slade, Karen; Forrester, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the prevalence and type of personality disorder within prison systems allows for the effective targeting of resources to implement strategies to alleviate symptoms, manage behaviour and attempt to reduce re-offending. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of personality disorder (PD) traits within a local urban high-turnover adult male prison with a remand/recently sentenced population in London, UK. The International Personality Disorder Examination - Screening Questionnaire (IPDE-SQ) self-administered questionnaire (ICD-10 version) was completed by 283 prisoners (42% completion rate). 77% of respondents reached the threshold for one or more PDs. The most common PD types were Paranoid PD (44.5%), Anankastic PD (40.3%), Schizoid PD (35%) and Dissocial PD (25.8%). These results confirm and extend existing knowledge regarding the prevalence of PD in prison populations into a high-turnover, urban, remand population. The stark comparison with community samples indicates that a more equitable standard of service delivery within the criminal justice system, focussing on preventive and early intervention services, is now required.

  20. Comparison of two methods for estimating discharge and nutrient loads from Tidally affected reaches of the Myakka and Peace Rivers, West-Central Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Levesque, V.A.; Hammett, K.M.

    1997-01-01

    The Myakka and Peace River Basins constitute more than 60 percent of the total inflow area and contribute more than half the total tributary inflow to the Charlotte Harbor estuarine system. Water discharge and nutrient enrichment have been identified as significant concerns in the estuary, and consequently, it is important to accurately estimate the magnitude of discharges and nutrient loads transported by inflows from both rivers. Two methods for estimating discharge and nutrient loads from tidally affected reaches of the Myakka and Peace Rivers were compared. The first method was a tidal-estimation method, in which discharge and nutrient loads were estimated based on stage, water-velocity, discharge, and water-quality data collected near the mouths of the rivers. The second method was a traditional basin-ratio method in which discharge and nutrient loads at the mouths were estimated from discharge and loads measured at upstream stations. Stage and water-velocity data were collected near the river mouths by submersible instruments, deployed in situ, and discharge measurements were made with an acoustic Doppler current profiler. The data collected near the mouths of the Myakka River and Peace River were filtered, using a low-pass filter, to remove daily mixed-tide effects with periods less than about 2 days. The filtered data from near the river mouths were used to calculate daily mean discharge and nutrient loads. These tidal-estimation-method values were then compared to the basin-ratio-method values. Four separate 30-day periods of differing streamflow conditions were chosen for monitoring and comparison. Discharge and nutrient load estimates computed from the tidal-estimation and basin-ratio methods were most similar during high-flow periods. However, during high flow, the values computed from the tidal-estimation method for the Myakka and Peace Rivers were consistently lower than the values computed from the basin-ratio method. There were substantial

  1. Prevalence of obesity in Bombay.

    PubMed

    Dhurandhar, N V; Kulkarni, P R

    1992-05-01

    Obesity has been reported in developed as well as developing countries. However, data on a large sample of the Indian population are lacking. This study analysed the prevalence of obesity among 1,784 adults in Bombay from various sections of society. Since the prevalence of obesity depends upon the criteria used, prevalence was judged by three criteria viz. percentage excess of body weight, body mass index, and body fat content. The data were classified and analysed according to occupation, age group, income, diet type, and also with respect to family history of obesity. The three methods gave a different prevalence of obesity. In general, the criterion of body mass index under-estimated, and body fat content over-estimated the prevalence as compared to that obtained by percentage excess body weight. An extremely high prevalence of obesity was found in all sub-groups of the sample. As judged by a body mass index of 25 and above, male students had the lowest (10.7%) and male medical doctors had the highest (53.1%) prevalence of obesity. Prevalence was highest for the age group 31-50 years for males and females, and declined on either side of this age range. Prevalence was directly proportional to financial income, and subjects with a family history of obesity had a greater prevalence of obesity compared to those without. This study indicates the gravity of the problem of obesity in Bombay, and provides directions for nutritional planning in the future.

  2. Maryland synoptic stream chemistry survey: estimating the number and distribution of streams affected by or at risk from acidification. Final report, November 1986-April 1988

    SciTech Connect

    Heimbuch, D.G.; Greening, H.S.; Filbin, G.J.

    1988-04-01

    The survey was designed to provide statewide estimates of the number and extent of stream resources presently affected by or at risk from acidification. Streams surveyed were selected as a stratified random sample from a statewide list of non-tidal stream reaches. The sample represented water-quality conditions in a population of interest comprising the state's headwater stream resources sampled during relatively constant phenological conditions during the spring of 1987. Of the 6875 non-tidal stream reaches in the state, an estimated 5411 stream reaches belong to the population of interest. Volunteers collected water samples from 559 randomly selected and 71 special interest reaches statewide. Samples were analyzed for acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC), pH, conductivity, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), color, and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), using analytical methods developed for the EPA National Surface Water Survey.

  3. Multi-test analysis and model-based estimation of the prevalence of Taenia saginata cysticercus infection in naturally infected dairy cows in the absence of a 'gold standard' reference test.

    PubMed

    Eichenberger, R M; Lewis, F; Gabriël, S; Dorny, P; Torgerson, P R; Deplazes, P

    2013-09-01

    The diagnostic values of seven serological tests (ELISAs) and of the obligatory European Union-approved routine visual meat inspection for the detection of Taenia saginata cysticercosis were investigated. A total of 793 slaughtered dairy cows were selected in three European Union approved abattoirs in Switzerland, an endemic area (apparent prevalence by enhanced meat inspection up to 4.5%) with typically low parasite burdens. ELISAs based on a somatic larval antigen, isoelectric focused somatic larval antigen, larval excretory/secretory antigens, peptide HP6-2, peptide Ts45S-10, pooled peptide solution and a monoclonal antibody antigen capture assay were initially screened. As there is no perfect diagnostic 'gold standard' reference test, the obligatory meat inspection and four selected serological tests were further analysed using Bayesian inference to estimate the "true" prevalence and the diagnostic test sensitivities and specificities. The ELISA for specific antibody detection based on excretory/secretory antigens showed highest sensitivity and specificity with 81.6% (95% credible interval: 70-92) and 96.3% (95% credible interval: 94-99), respectively. The Bayesian model estimated the specificity of the ELISA, based on the synthetic peptide Ts45S-10 as 55.2% (95% credible interval: 46-65) and sensitivity as 84.7% (95% credible interval: 82-88). The sensitivity of the ELISA based on mAbs, detecting circulating antigen, was 14.3% (95% credible interval: 9-23) with a specificity of 93.7% (95% credible interval: 92-96). The diagnostic sensitivity of the obligatory standard European Union meat inspection procedure for the detection of T. saginata cysticercus infection at the abattoir was estimated to be 15.6% (95% credible interval: 10-23). Based on these data, the modelled prevalence of cysticercosis in dairy cows presented at abattoirs in Switzerland was estimated to be 16.5% (95% credible interval: 13-21). These cattle also had a high prevalence of infection with

  4. Specification and estimation of sources of bias affecting neurological studies in PET/MR with an anatomical brain phantom

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teuho, J.; Johansson, J.; Linden, J.; Saunavaara, V.; Tolvanen, T.; Teräs, M.

    2014-01-01

    Selection of reconstruction parameters has an effect on the image quantification in PET, with an additional contribution from a scanner-specific attenuation correction method. For achieving comparable results in inter- and intra-center comparisons, any existing quantitative differences should be identified and compensated for. In this study, a comparison between PET, PET/CT and PET/MR is performed by using an anatomical brain phantom, to identify and measure the amount of bias caused due to differences in reconstruction and attenuation correction methods especially in PET/MR. Differences were estimated by using visual, qualitative and quantitative analysis. The qualitative analysis consisted of a line profile analysis for measuring the reproduction of anatomical structures and the contribution of the amount of iterations to image contrast. The quantitative analysis consisted of measurement and comparison of 10 anatomical VOIs, where the HRRT was considered as the reference. All scanners reproduced the main anatomical structures of the phantom adequately, although the image contrast on the PET/MR was inferior when using a default clinical brain protocol. Image contrast was improved by increasing the amount of iterations from 2 to 5 while using 33 subsets. Furthermore, a PET/MR-specific bias was detected, which resulted in underestimation of the activity values in anatomical structures closest to the skull, due to the MR-derived attenuation map that ignores the bone. Thus, further improvements for the PET/MR reconstruction and attenuation correction could be achieved by optimization of RAMLA-specific reconstruction parameters and implementation of bone to the attenuation template.

  5. A Questionnaire-Based Survey of Indian ENT Surgeons to Estimate Clinic Prevalence of Acute Otitis Media, Diagnostic Practices, and Management Strategies.

    PubMed

    D'silva, Liesel; Parikh, Raunak; Nanivadekar, Arun; Joglekar, Sadhna

    2013-12-01

    Acute otitis media (AOM) is common in Indian children, but there is limited published information on its clinic prevalence, clinicians' diagnostic practices, and their management strategies. We approached 649 ear-nose-throat (ENT) surgeons to assess these aspects of AOM. We conducted the survey between May 2010 and February 2011 with the same set of ENT surgeons practising across India, once each during summer, monsoon and winter, using a validated 36-item questionnaire to record their reflective recall. 78 % (506/649) of approached ENT surgeons responded. The clinic prevalence of AOM was 43 % with peaks reported in July and December. 96 % (486/506) of the surgeons used otoscopy to diagnose AOM. 86 % (435/506) prescribed analgesics, and 89 % (449/506) prescribed decongestants. 98 % (495/506) treated AOM with an antibiotic at initial consultation: amoxicillin/clavulanic acid 78 % (395/506), amoxicillin 29 % (144/506), cefpodoxime 29 % (149/506), cefixime 28 % (141/506) and azithromycin 27 % (134/506). Amoxicillin/clavulanic acid 32 % (162/506) and cefpodoxime 27% (137/506) were mostly prescribed for relapse. The average reported duration of initial antibiotic therapy was 7 days and for relapse was 9 days. The reported clinic prevalence of AOM was higher (43 %) than anticipated (about 10 %) in ENT practice. Almost all the ENT surgeons used an otoscope to diagnose AOM. Amoxicillin/clavulanic acid was the preferred antibiotic for treating AOM either initially or for relapse. Most surgeons also used analgesics and decongestants for symptomatic relief. PMID:24427717

  6. Molecular analysis of HEXA gene in Argentinean patients affected with Tay-Sachs disease: possible common origin of the prevalent c.459+5A>G mutation.

    PubMed

    Zampieri, Stefania; Montalvo, Annalisa; Blanco, Mariana; Zanin, Irene; Amartino, Hernan; Vlahovicek, Kristian; Szlago, Marina; Schenone, Andrea; Pittis, Gabriela; Bembi, Bruno; Dardis, Andrea

    2012-05-15

    Tay-Sachs disease (TSD) is a recessively inherited disorder caused by the deficient activity of hexosaminidase A due to mutations in the HEXA gene. Up to date there is no information regarding the molecular genetics of TSD in Argentinean patients. In the present study we have studied 17 Argentinean families affected by TSD, including 20 patients with the acute infantile form and 3 with the sub-acute form. Overall, we identified 14 different mutations accounting for 100% of the studied alleles. Eight mutations were novel: 5 were single base changes leading to drastic residue changes or truncated proteins, 2 were small deletions and one was an intronic mutation that may cause a splicing defect. Although the spectrum of mutations was highly heterogeneous, a high frequency of the c.459+5G>A mutation, previously described in different populations was found among the studied cohort. Haplotype analysis suggested that in these families the c.459+5G>A mutation might have arisen by a single mutational event.

  7. Molecular analysis of HEXA gene in Argentinean patients affected with Tay-Sachs disease: possible common origin of the prevalent c.459+5A>G mutation.

    PubMed

    Zampieri, Stefania; Montalvo, Annalisa; Blanco, Mariana; Zanin, Irene; Amartino, Hernan; Vlahovicek, Kristian; Szlago, Marina; Schenone, Andrea; Pittis, Gabriela; Bembi, Bruno; Dardis, Andrea

    2012-05-15

    Tay-Sachs disease (TSD) is a recessively inherited disorder caused by the deficient activity of hexosaminidase A due to mutations in the HEXA gene. Up to date there is no information regarding the molecular genetics of TSD in Argentinean patients. In the present study we have studied 17 Argentinean families affected by TSD, including 20 patients with the acute infantile form and 3 with the sub-acute form. Overall, we identified 14 different mutations accounting for 100% of the studied alleles. Eight mutations were novel: 5 were single base changes leading to drastic residue changes or truncated proteins, 2 were small deletions and one was an intronic mutation that may cause a splicing defect. Although the spectrum of mutations was highly heterogeneous, a high frequency of the c.459+5G>A mutation, previously described in different populations was found among the studied cohort. Haplotype analysis suggested that in these families the c.459+5G>A mutation might have arisen by a single mutational event. PMID:22441121

  8. First evidence of Panulirus argus Virus 1 (PaV1) in spiny lobster from Cuba and clinical estimation of its prevalence.

    PubMed

    Cruz Quintana, Yanis; Rodríguez Canul, Rossanna; Vidal Martínez, Victor M

    2011-01-21

    The present study documents the first finding of Panulirus argus Virus 1 (PaV1) in spiny lobster Panulirus argus from Cuba. Samples originated from 2 nursery sites, Matias Keys and Bocas de Alonso Keys, and 2 fishing sites, La Grifa and El Ramajo. Lobsters from the nursery sites (artificial reefs) were collected by SCUBA diving, while those from the fishing sites were collected from artificial shelters known as 'casitas cubanas'. In these shelters it was observed that healthy lobsters tended to avoid infected lobsters. Prevalence of PaV1 in the sampling sites was assessed by using clinical signs such as lethargy, an opaque reddish shell coloration, and milky white hemolymph with loss of clotting activity. The presence of PaV1 was subsequently confirmed by histology and PCR of tissues and hemolymph samples from suspected individuals. Histological sections of the hepatopancreas, gills, gonads, and gut showed infected hemocytes with hypertrophied nuclei and eosinophilic intranuclear Cowdry type A inclusions. A 499 bp band was observed by PCR. The sequence of the amplified fragments was 96% similar to the PaV1 sequence in GenBank. The overall mean prevalence of PaV1 was 4.48% (range: 0 to 9.3%) after pooling the results of the 4 sampling sites.

  9. Tests on the centrifugal flotation technique and its use in estimating the prevalence of Toxocara in soil samples from urban and suburban areas of Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Loh, A G; Israf, D A

    1998-03-01

    The influence of soil texture (silt, sand and laterite) and flotation solutions (saturated NaCl, sucrose, NaNO3, and ZnSO4) upon the recovery of Toxocara ova from seeded soil samples with the centrifugal flotation technique was investigated. Soil samples of different texture were artificially seeded with Toxocara spp. ova and subjected to a centrifugal flotation technique which used various flotation solutions. The results showed significant (P < 0.001) interactions between the soil types and the flotation solutions. The highest percentage of ova recovery was obtained with silty soil (34.9-100.8%) with saturated NaCl as the flotation solution (45.3-100.8%). A combination of washing of soil samples with 0.1% Tween 80, and flotation using saturated NaCl and a 30 min coverslip recovery period was used to study the prevalence of contamination of soil samples. Forty-six soil samples were collected from up to 24 public parks/playgrounds in urban areas of Petaling Jaya and suburban areas of Serdang. The prevalence of Toxocara species in the urban and suburban areas was 54.5% and 45.8% respectively. PMID:9639899

  10. Tests on the centrifugal flotation technique and its use in estimating the prevalence of Toxocara in soil samples from urban and suburban areas of Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Loh, A G; Israf, D A

    1998-03-01

    The influence of soil texture (silt, sand and laterite) and flotation solutions (saturated NaCl, sucrose, NaNO3, and ZnSO4) upon the recovery of Toxocara ova from seeded soil samples with the centrifugal flotation technique was investigated. Soil samples of different texture were artificially seeded with Toxocara spp. ova and subjected to a centrifugal flotation technique which used various flotation solutions. The results showed significant (P < 0.001) interactions between the soil types and the flotation solutions. The highest percentage of ova recovery was obtained with silty soil (34.9-100.8%) with saturated NaCl as the flotation solution (45.3-100.8%). A combination of washing of soil samples with 0.1% Tween 80, and flotation using saturated NaCl and a 30 min coverslip recovery period was used to study the prevalence of contamination of soil samples. Forty-six soil samples were collected from up to 24 public parks/playgrounds in urban areas of Petaling Jaya and suburban areas of Serdang. The prevalence of Toxocara species in the urban and suburban areas was 54.5% and 45.8% respectively.

  11. Patient-reported side effects, concerns and adherence to corticosteroid treatment for asthma, and comparison with physician estimates of side-effect prevalence: a UK-wide, cross-sectional study

    PubMed Central

    Cooper, Vanessa; Metcalf, Leanne; Versnel, Jenny; Upton, Jane; Walker, Samantha; Horne, Rob

    2015-01-01

    Background: Non-adherence to corticosteroid treatment has been shown to reduce treatment efficacy, thus compromising asthma control. Aims: To examine the experiences of treatment side effects, treatment concerns and adherence to inhaled (ICS) and oral corticosteroids (OCS) among people with asthma and to identify the degree of concordance between clinician estimates of side effects and the prevalence reported by patients. Methods: Asthma UK members were sent validated questionnaires assessing treatment concerns, experiences of side effects and adherence. Questionnaires measuring clinicians’ estimates of the prevalence of corticosteroid side effects were completed online. Results: Completed questionnaires were returned by 1,524 people taking ICS, 233 taking OCS and 244 clinicians (67% of clinicians were primary care nurses). Among people with asthma, 64% of those taking ICS and 88% of those taking OCS reported ⩾1 side effect. People reporting high adherence to ICS (t=−3.09, P<0.005) and those reporting low adherence to OCS (t=1.86, P<0.05; one-tailed test) reported more side effects. There was a disparity between clinicians’ estimates of the frequency of side effects and the frequency reported by people with asthma: e.g., although 46% of people taking ICS reported sore throat, clinicians estimated that this figure would be 10%. Patients who reported side effects had stronger concerns about both ICS (r=0.46, P<0.0001) and OCS (r=0.50, P<0.0001). Concerns about corticosteroids were associated with low adherence to ICS (t=6.90, P<0.0001) and OCS (t=1.71; P<0.05; one-tailed test). Conclusions: An unexpectedly large proportion of people with asthma experienced side effects and had strong concerns about their treatment, which compromised adherence. These findings have implications for the design of interventions to optimise asthma control through improved adherence. PMID:26158805

  12. Estimating trematode prevalence in snail hosts using a single-step duplex PCR: how badly does cercarial shedding underestimate infection rates?

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Trematode communities often consist of different species exploiting the same host population, with two or more trematodes sometimes co-occuring in the same host. A commonly used diagnostic method to detect larval trematode infections in snails has been based on cercarial shedding, though it is often criticized as inaccurate. In the present study we compare infection prevalences determined by cercarial emission with those determined, for the first time, by molecular methods, allowing us to quantify the underestimation of single and double infections based on cercarial emission. We thus developed a duplex PCR for two host-parasite systems, to specifically differentiate between single and double infections. The Ebro samples include two morphologically similar opecoelids, whereas the Otago samples include two morphologically different larval trematodes. Methods Snails were screened for infections by incubating them individually to induce cercarial emission, thus determining infection following the “classical” detection method. Snail tissue was then removed and fixed for the duplex PCR. After obtaining ITS rDNA sequences, four species-specific primers were designed for each snail-trematode system, and duplex PCR prevalence was determined for each sample. Results from both methods were statistically compared using the McNemar’s Chi-squared test and Cohen’s Kappa Statistic for agreement between outcomes. Results Overall infection prevalences determined by duplex PCR were consistently and substantially higher than those based on cercarial shedding: among Ebro samples, between 17.9% and 60.1% more snails were found infected using the molecular method, whereas in the Otago samples, the difference was between 9.9% and 20.6%. Kappa values generally indicated a fair to substantial agreement between both detection methods, showing a lower agreement for the Ebro samples. Conclusions We demonstrate that molecular detection of single and double infections by

  13. Depression in athletes: prevalence and risk factors.

    PubMed

    Wolanin, Andrew; Gross, Michael; Hong, Eugene

    2015-01-01

    Depression affects an estimated 6.7% of today's adult population in a 12-month period. The prevalence rates for certain age groups, such as young adults and older adults, are higher. There are approximately 400,000 National Collegiate Athletic Association student athletes competing each year and 5 to 7 million high school student athletes involved in competitive interscholastic sports. Given such a high prevalence rate in certain age groups and a large denominator pool of athletes, past notions that athletes are devoid of mental health issues have come under scrutiny by sports medicine providers. Initial data suggest that athletes are far from immune to depression. The purpose of this article was to review the current research on athletes and depression; particularly this article will provide an overview of studies, which have investigated the rate of depression among athletes, and discuss relevant risk factors, which may contribute to depression among athletes.

  14. Prevalence of Hepatitis B Virus Infection in Kenya, 2007.

    PubMed

    Ly, Kathleen N; Kim, Andrea A; Umuro, Mamo; Drobenuic, Jan; Williamson, John M; Montgomery, Joel M; Fields, Barry S; Teshale, Eyasu H

    2016-08-01

    Current estimates put the prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in Kenya at 5-8%. We determined the HBV infection prevalence in the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative Kenyan adult and adolescent population based on samples collected from a national survey. We analyzed data from HIV-negative participants in the 2007 Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey to estimate the HBV infection prevalence. We defined past or present HBV infection as presence of total hepatitis B core antibody (HBcAb), and chronic HBV infection (CHBI) as presence of both total HBcAb and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). We calculated crude and adjusted odds of HBV infection by demographic characteristics and risk factors using logistic regression analyses. Of 1,091 participants aged 15-64 years, approximately 31.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 28.0-35.3%) had exposure to HBV, corresponding to approximately 6.1 million (CI = 5.4-6.8 million) with past or present HBV infection. The estimated prevalence of CHBI was 2.1% (95% CI = 1.4-3.1%), corresponding to approximately 398,000 (CI = 261,000-602,000) with CHBI. CHBI is a major public health problem in Kenya, affecting approximately 400,000 persons. Knowing the HBV infection prevalence at baseline is important for planning and public health policy decision making and for monitoring the impact of viral hepatitis prevention programs.

  15. Estimation of selected streamflow statistics for a network of low-flow partial-record stations in areas affected by Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) in Maryland

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ries, Kernell G.; Eng, Ken

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Maryland Department of the Environment, operated a network of 20 low-flow partial-record stations during 2008 in a region that extends from southwest of Baltimore to the northeastern corner of Maryland to obtain estimates of selected streamflow statistics at the station locations. The study area is expected to face a substantial influx of new residents and businesses as a result of military and civilian personnel transfers associated with the Federal Base Realignment and Closure Act of 2005. The estimated streamflow statistics, which include monthly 85-percent duration flows, the 10-year recurrence-interval minimum base flow, and the 7-day, 10-year low flow, are needed to provide a better understanding of the availability of water resources in the area to be affected by base-realignment activities. Streamflow measurements collected for this study at the low-flow partial-record stations and measurements collected previously for 8 of the 20 stations were related to concurrent daily flows at nearby index streamgages to estimate the streamflow statistics. Three methods were used to estimate the streamflow statistics and two methods were used to select the index streamgages. Of the three methods used to estimate the streamflow statistics, two of them--the Moments and MOVE1 methods--rely on correlating the streamflow measurements at the low-flow partial-record stations with concurrent streamflows at nearby, hydrologically similar index streamgages to determine the estimates. These methods, recommended for use by the U.S. Geological Survey, generally require about 10 streamflow measurements at the low-flow partial-record station. The third method transfers the streamflow statistics from the index streamgage to the partial-record station based on the average of the ratios of the measured streamflows at the partial-record station to the concurrent streamflows at the index streamgage. This method can be used with as few as

  16. The Use of Spatial Analysis to Estimate the Prevalence of Canine Leishmaniasis in Greece and Cyprus to Predict Its Future Variation and Relate It to Human Disease

    PubMed Central

    Sifaki-Pistola, Dimitra; Ntais, Pantelis; Christodoulou, Vasiliki; Mazeris, Apostolos; Antoniou, Maria

    2014-01-01

    Climatic, environmental, and demographic changes favor the emergence of neglected vector-borne diseases like leishmaniasis, which is spreading through dogs, the principle host of the protozoan Leishmania infantum. Surveillance of the disease in dogs is important, because the number of infected animals in an area determines the local risk of human infection. However, dog epidemiological studies are costly. Our aim was to evaluate the Emerging Diseases in a Changing European Environment (EDEN) veterinary questionnaire as a cost-effective tool in providing reliable, spatially explicit indicators of canine leishmaniasis prevalence. For this purpose, the data from the questionnaire were compared with data from two epidemiological studies on leishmaniasis carried out in Greece and Cyprus at the same time using statistical methods and spatial statistics. Although the questionnaire data cannot provide a quantitative measure of leishmaniasis in an area, it indicates the dynamic of the disease; information is obtained in a short period of time at low cost. PMID:24957543

  17. Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factor Prevalence and Estimated 10-Year Cardiovascular Risk Scores in a Large Untreated French Urban Population: The CARVAR 92 Study

    PubMed Central

    Karam, Carma; Beauchet, Alain; Czernichow, Sebastien; de Roquefeuil, Florence; Bourez, Alain; Mansencal, Nicolas; Dubourg, Olivier

    2015-01-01

    Background Surveys measuring effectiveness of public awareness campaigns in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence have yielded equivocal findings. The aim of this study was to describe cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) changes over the years in an untreated population-based study. Methods Between 2007 and 2012, we conducted a screening campaign for CVRFs in men aged 40 to 65 yrs and women aged 50 to 70 yrs in the western suburbs of Paris. Data were complete for 20,324 participants of which 14,709 were untreated. Results The prevalence trend over six years was statistically significant for hypertension in men from 25.9% in 2007 to 21.1% in 2012 (p=0.002) and from 23% in 2007 to 12.7% in 2012 in women (p<0.0001). The prevalence trend of tobacco smoking decreased from 38.6% to 27.7% in men (p=0.0001) and from 22.6% to 16.8% in women (p=0.113). The Framingham 10-year risk for CVD decreased from 13.3 ± 8.2 % in 2007 to 11.7 ± 9.0 % in 2012 in men and from 8.0 ± 4.1 % to 5.9 ± 3.4 % in women. The 10-year risk of fatal CVD based on the European Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) decreased in men and in women (p <0.0001). Conclusions Over a 6-year period, several CVRFs have decreased in our screening campaign, leading to decrease in the 10-year risk for CVD and the 10-year risk of fatal CVD. Cardiologists should recognize the importance of community prevention programs and communication policies, particularly tobacco control and healthier diets to decrease the CVRFs in the general population. PMID:25906186

  18. Estimating the prevalence and burden of major disorders of the brain in Nepal: methodology of a nationwide population-based study

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The major disorders of the brain (MDBs), in terms of their prevalence and the burdens of ill health, disability and financial cost that they impose on individuals and society, are headache, depression and anxiety. No population-based studies have been conducted in Nepal. Aim Our purpose was to assess the prevalence and burden attributable to MDBs in Nepal in order to inform health policy. Here we report the methodology. Methods The unusual sociocultural diversity and extreme geographical variation of the country required adaptation of standard methodology. We ran pre-pilot and pilot studies before embarking on the main study. The study design was cross-sectional. The population of interest were adults aged 18–65 years who were Nepali speaking and living in Nepal. We selected, employed and trained groups of interviewers to visit randomly selected households by cold-calling. Households were selected from 15 representative districts out of 75 in the country through multistage cluster sampling. One participant was selected randomly from each household. We used structured questionnaires (the HARDSHIP questionnaire, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, and Eysenck Personality Questionnaire -Neuroticism), culturally adapted and translated into Nepali. We recorded blood pressure, weight, height and waist circumference, and altitude of each household. We implemented various quality-assurances measures. Results We completed the survey in one month, prior to onset of the monsoon. Among 2,210 selected households, all were contacted, 2,109 were eligible for the study and, from these, 2,100 adults participated. The participation rate was 99.6%. Conclusion Standard methodology was successfully applied in Nepal, with some adaptations. The sociocultural and extraordinary geographic diversity were challenging, but did not require us to compromise the scientific quality of the study. PMID:25146939

  19. Prevalence of hypercalcemia among cancer patients in the United States.

    PubMed

    Gastanaga, Victor M; Schwartzberg, Lee S; Jain, Rajul K; Pirolli, Melissa; Quach, David; Quigley, Jane M; Mu, George; Scott Stryker, W; Liede, Alexander

    2016-08-01

    Hypercalcemia of malignancy (HCM) is a serious metabolic complication whose population-based prevalence has not been quantified. Rates of HCM differ by tumor type, with highest rates reported in multiple myeloma and lowest among colorectal and prostate cancer patients. This analysis estimates HCM prevalence in the US. This retrospective study used the Oncology Services Comprehensive Electronic Records (OSCER) warehouse of electronic health records (EHR) including laboratory values from 569000 patients treated at 565 oncology outpatient sites. OSCER data were projected to the national level by linking EHR to claims data. Cancer patients included were ≥18 years, and had serum calcium (Ca) and albumin (for corrected serum Ca [CSC]) records. Period prevalence was estimated by HCM CTCAE grade, tumor type, and year (2009-2013). Estimates were adjusted to capture patients diagnosed with HCM outside oncology practices based on a subset of patients linkable to office and hospital data. The analysis included 68023 (2009) to 121482 (2013) cancer patients. In 2013, patients with HCM had a median of six Ca tests, 69.7% had chemotherapy, and 34% received bone modifying agents. HCM rates were highest for multiple myeloma patients (7.5% [2012]-10.2% [2010]), lowest for prostate cancer (1.4% [2012]-2.1% [2011]).The estimated adjusted annual prevalence of HCM from 2009 to 2013 was 95441, 96281, 89797, 70158, and 71744, respectively. HCM affected 2.0-2.8% of all cancer patients. EHR data from oncology clinics were critical for this study because these data contain results from laboratory studies (i.e., serum calcium values) that are routinely ordered in that setting. We estimated that the prevalence of HCM in the US in 2013 is 71744, affecting approximately 2% of cancer patients overall. This percentage differs by tumor type and appears to have decreased over the five-year study period.

  20. Prevalence of hypercalcemia among cancer patients in the United States.

    PubMed

    Gastanaga, Victor M; Schwartzberg, Lee S; Jain, Rajul K; Pirolli, Melissa; Quach, David; Quigley, Jane M; Mu, George; Scott Stryker, W; Liede, Alexander

    2016-08-01

    Hypercalcemia of malignancy (HCM) is a serious metabolic complication whose population-based prevalence has not been quantified. Rates of HCM differ by tumor type, with highest rates reported in multiple myeloma and lowest among colorectal and prostate cancer patients. This analysis estimates HCM prevalence in the US. This retrospective study used the Oncology Services Comprehensive Electronic Records (OSCER) warehouse of electronic health records (EHR) including laboratory values from 569000 patients treated at 565 oncology outpatient sites. OSCER data were projected to the national level by linking EHR to claims data. Cancer patients included were ≥18 years, and had serum calcium (Ca) and albumin (for corrected serum Ca [CSC]) records. Period prevalence was estimated by HCM CTCAE grade, tumor type, and year (2009-2013). Estimates were adjusted to capture patients diagnosed with HCM outside oncology practices based on a subset of patients linkable to office and hospital data. The analysis included 68023 (2009) to 121482 (2013) cancer patients. In 2013, patients with HCM had a median of six Ca tests, 69.7% had chemotherapy, and 34% received bone modifying agents. HCM rates were highest for multiple myeloma patients (7.5% [2012]-10.2% [2010]), lowest for prostate cancer (1.4% [2012]-2.1% [2011]).The estimated adjusted annual prevalence of HCM from 2009 to 2013 was 95441, 96281, 89797, 70158, and 71744, respectively. HCM affected 2.0-2.8% of all cancer patients. EHR data from oncology clinics were critical for this study because these data contain results from laboratory studies (i.e., serum calcium values) that are routinely ordered in that setting. We estimated that the prevalence of HCM in the US in 2013 is 71744, affecting approximately 2% of cancer patients overall. This percentage differs by tumor type and appears to have decreased over the five-year study period. PMID:27263488

  1. Prevalence of ataxia in children

    PubMed Central

    Stoyanov, Cristina T.; Marasigan, Rhul; Jenkins, Mary E.; Konczak, Jürgen; Morton, Susanne M.; Bastian, Amy J.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To estimate the prevalence of childhood ataxia resulting from both genetic and acquired causes. Methods: A systematic review was conducted following the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses) statement. Five databases were searched for articles reporting a frequency measure (e.g., prevalence, incidence) of ataxia in children. Included articles were first grouped according to the World Health Organization (WHO) regions and subsequently classified according to etiology (genetic, acquired, or mixed). Each article was assessed for its risk of bias on the domains of sampling, measurement, and analysis. Incidence values were converted to prevalence estimates whenever possible. European prevalence estimates for different etiologies of ataxia were summed to gauge the overall prevalence of childhood ataxia. Results: One hundred fifteen articles were included in the review. More than 50% of the data originated from the Europe WHO region. Data from this region also showed the least susceptibility to bias. Little data were available for Africa and Southeast Asia. The prevalence of acquired ataxias was found to vary more greatly across regions than the genetic ataxias. Ataxic cerebral palsy was found to be a significant contributor to the overall prevalence of childhood ataxia across WHO regions. The prevalence of childhood ataxias in Europe was estimated to be ∼26/100,000 children and likely reflects a minimum prevalence worldwide. Conclusions: The findings show that ataxia is a common childhood motor disorder with a higher prevalence than previously assumed. More research concerning the epidemiology, assessment, and treatment of childhood ataxia is warranted. PMID:24285620

  2. Estimated lean mass and fat mass differentially affect femoral bone density and strength index but are not FRAX independent risk factors for fracture.

    PubMed

    Leslie, William D; Orwoll, Eric S; Nielson, Carrie M; Morin, Suzanne N; Majumdar, Sumit R; Johansson, Helena; Odén, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V; Kanis, John A

    2014-11-01

    Although increasing body weight has been regarded as protective against osteoporosis and fractures, there is accumulating evidence that fat mass adversely affects skeletal health compared with lean mass. We examined skeletal health as a function of estimated total body lean and fat mass in 40,050 women and 3600 men age ≥50 years at the time of baseline dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) testing from a clinical registry from Manitoba, Canada. Femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD), strength index (SI), cross-sectional area (CSA), and cross-sectional moment of inertia (CSMI) were derived from DXA. Multivariable models showed that increasing lean mass was associated with near-linear increases in femoral BMD, CSA, and CSMI in both women and men, whereas increasing fat mass showed a small initial increase in these measurements followed by a plateau. In contrast, femoral SI was relatively unaffected by increasing lean mass but was associated with a continuous linear decline with increasing fat mass, which should predict higher fracture risk. During mean 5-year follow-up, incident major osteoporosis fractures and hip fractures were observed in 2505 women and 180 men (626 and 45 hip fractures, respectively). After adjustment for fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) scores (with or without BMD), we found no evidence that lean mass, fat mass, or femoral SI affected prediction of major osteoporosis fractures or hip fractures. Findings were similar in men and women, without significant interactions with sex or obesity. In conclusion, skeletal adaptation to increasing lean mass was positively associated with BMD but had no effect on femoral SI, whereas increasing fat mass had no effect on BMD but adversely affected femoral SI. Greater fat mass was not independently associated with a greater risk of fractures over 5-year follow-up. FRAX robustly predicts fractures and was not affected by variations in body composition. PMID:24825359

  3. Using Small-Area Estimation to Calculate the Prevalence of Smoking by Subcounty Geographic Areas in King County, Washington, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 2009–2013

    PubMed Central

    Mercer, Laina; Wakefield, Jon; Laurent, Amy; Solet, David

    2016-01-01

    Introduction King County, Washington, fares well overall in many health indicators. However, county-level data mask disparities among subcounty areas. For disparity-focused assessment, a demand exists for examining health data at subcounty levels such as census tracts and King County health reporting areas (HRAs). Methods We added a “nearest intersection” question to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and geocoded the data for subcounty geographic areas, including census tracts. To overcome small sample size at the census tract level, we used hierarchical Bayesian models to obtain smoothed estimates in cigarette smoking rates at the census tract and HRA levels. We also used multiple imputation to adjust for missing values in census tracts. Results Direct estimation of adult smoking rates at the census tract level ranged from 0% to 56% with a median of 10%. The 90% confidence interval (CI) half-width for census tract with nonzero rates ranged from 1 percentage point to 37 percentage points with a median of 13 percentage points. The smoothed-multiple–imputation rates ranged from 5% to 28% with a median of 12%. The 90% CI half-width ranged from 4 percentage points to 13 percentage points with a median of 8 percentage points. Conclusion The nearest intersection question in the BRFSS provided geocoded data at subcounty levels. The Bayesian model provided estimation with improved precision at the census tract and HRA levels. Multiple imputation can be used to account for missing geographic data. Small-area estimation, which has been used for King County public health programs, has increasingly become a useful tool to meet the demand of presenting data at more granular levels. PMID:27149070

  4. Increasing Autism Prevalence in Metropolitan New Jersey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zahorodny, Walter; Shenouda, Josephine; Howell, Sandra; Rosato, Nancy Scotto; Peng, Bo; Mehta, Uday

    2014-01-01

    High baseline autism spectrum disorder prevalence estimates in New Jersey led to a follow-up surveillance. The objectives were to determine autism spectrum disorder prevalence in the year 2006 in New Jersey and to identify changes in the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder or in the characteristics of the children with autism spectrum disorder,…

  5. Development and application of a fecal antigen diagnostic sandwich ELISA for estimating prevalence of Fasciola gigantica in cattle in central Java, Indonesia.

    PubMed

    Estuningsih, Endah; Spithill, Terry; Raadsma, Herman; Law, Ruby; Adiwinata, G; Meeusen, Els; Piedrafita, David

    2009-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare the sensitivity and specificity of an ELISA test to detect Fasciola gigantica antigens (coproantigens) in bovine feces, with fecal egg counting and an ELISA for detecting anti-F. gigantica antibodies in serum. Monoclonal antibodies to cathepsin L were generated and used to capture this antigen in feces of infected cattle. Blood, feces, and livers were collected from 150 cattle at an abattoir in Jakarta, Indonesia, for anti-Fasciola antibodies, coproantigen detection, and F. gigantica egg and worm counts. Fluke recovery varied from 1 to 426 per host, with a mean of 32 flukes. The results showed that the sensitivity and specificity of coproantigen detecting ELISA (95 and 91%, respectively) was better than the anti-F. gigantica antibody ELISA (91 and 88%, respectively) and to fecal egg counting (87 and 100%, respectively). The coproantigen ELISA was able to detect 100% of the cattle with >15 flukes. A survey of 305 cattle in central Java over a 10-mo period validated this test in the field, demonstrating a high prevalence of fascioliasis and establishing the test as a useful diagnostic method to determine patent F. gigantica infections in cattle.

  6. Factors Affecting Firm Yield and the Estimation of Firm Yield for Selected Streamflow-Dominated Drinking-Water-Supply Reservoirs in Massachusetts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Waldron, Marcus C.; Archfield, Stacey A.

    2006-01-01

    Factors affecting reservoir firm yield, as determined by application of the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection's Firm Yield Estimator (FYE) model, were evaluated, modified, and tested on 46 streamflow-dominated reservoirs representing 15 Massachusetts drinking-water supplies. The model uses a mass-balance approach to determine the maximum average daily withdrawal rate that can be sustained during a period of record that includes the 1960s drought-of-record. The FYE methodology to estimate streamflow to the reservoir at an ungaged site was tested by simulating streamflow at two streamflow-gaging stations in Massachusetts and comparing the simulated streamflow to the observed streamflow. In general, the FYE-simulated flows agreed well with observed flows. There were substantial deviations from the measured values for extreme high and low flows. A sensitivity analysis determined that the model's streamflow estimates are most sensitive to input values for average annual precipitation, reservoir drainage area, and the soil-retention number-a term that describes the amount of precipitation retained by the soil in the basin. The FYE model currently provides the option of using a 1,000-year synthetic record constructed by randomly sampling 2-year blocks of concurrent streamflow and precipitation records 500 times; however, the synthetic record has the potential to generate records of precipitation and streamflow that do not reflect the worst historical drought in Massachusetts. For reservoirs that do not have periods of drawdown greater than 2 years, the bootstrap does not offer any additional information about the firm yield of a reservoir than the historical record does. For some reservoirs, the use of a synthetic record to determine firm yield resulted in as much as a 30-percent difference between firm-yield values from one simulation to the next. Furthermore, the assumption that the synthetic traces of streamflow are statistically equivalent to the

  7. Prevalence of disease-specific antinuclear antibodies in general population: estimates from annual physical examinations of residents of a small town over a 5-year period.

    PubMed

    Hayashi, Nobuhide; Koshiba, Masahiro; Nishimura, Kunihiro; Sugiyama, Daisuke; Nakamura, Tomoko; Morinobu, Sahoko; Kawano, Seiji; Kumagai, Shunichi

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the types and prevalence of disease-specific antinuclear antibodies (ANAs) and their relationship to rheumatic diseases in the general Japanese population. An immunofluorescence (IF) method was used for the first screening of ANA levels in serum samples obtained from 2181 residents of a small Japanese town. Individuals positive for IF-ANA were then further tested for disease-specific ANAs using eight enzyme immunoassays. Physical status and the presence of illness were determined by means of questionnaires and medical examinations. Based on the result of the IF-ANA assay, the rates of positive samples at 1:40 and 1:160 dilutions were 26.0 and 9.5%, respectively, with females have significantly higher positivity rates than males (P < 0.0001). Among 566 IF-ANA-positive individuals, 100 individuals were found to have 114 disease-specific ANAs. Anti-SSA/Ro, anti-centromere, and anti-U1RNP antibodies were detected in 58, 30, and 11 individuals, respectively, but anti-Sm, anti-Scl-70, and anti-Jo-1 antibodies were undetectable. Questionnaires and medical examinations revealed that among 60 disease-specific ANA-positive individuals that were available for testing, six had Sjögren's syndrome (SS), five were suspected of having SS, and five had rheumatoid arthritis. Surprisingly, 34 (57%) of the disease-specific ANA-positive individuals were clinically healthy. Anti-SSA/Ro, anti-centromere, and anti-U1RNP antibodies were quite frequent among clinically healthy Japanese subjects, although anti-Sm, anti-Scl-70, and anti-Jo-1 antibodies were not. Of the 60 individuals who tested positive for disease-specific ANAs, 30% (18/60) actually manifested systemic rheumatic diseases, while 50% showed no detectable signs or symptoms of rheumatic diseases.

  8. Is diabetes color-blind? Growth of prevalence of diagnosed diabetes in children through 2030.

    PubMed

    Adepoju, Omolola E; Bolin, Jane N; Booth, Eric A; Zhao, Hongwei; Lin, Szu-Hsuan; Phillips, Charles D; Ohsfeldt, Robert L

    2015-06-01

    Diabetes knows no age and affects millions of individuals. Preventing diabetes in children is increasingly becoming a major health policy concern and focus. The objective of this study is to project the number of children, aged 0-17 years, with diagnosed diabetes in the United States through 2030, accounting for changing demography, and diabetes and obesity prevalence rates. The study team combined historic diabetes and obesity prevalence data with US child population estimates and projections. A times-series regression model was used to forecast future diabetes prevalence and to account for the relationship between the forecasted diabetes prevalence and the lagged prevalence of childhood obesity. Overall, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes is projected to increase 67% from 0.22% in 2010 to 0.36% in 2030. Lagged obesity prevalence in Hispanic boys and non-Hispanic black girls was significantly associated with increasing future diabetes prevalence. The study results showed that a 1% increase in obesity prevalence among Hispanic boys from the previous year was significantly associated with a 0.005% increase in future prevalence of diagnosed diabetes in children (P ≤ 0.01). Likewise, a unit increase in obesity prevalence among non-Hispanic black girls was associated with a 0.003% increase in future diabetes prevalence (P < 0.05). Obesity rates for other race/ethnicity combinations were not associated with increasing future diabetes prevalence. To mitigate the continued threat posed by diabetes, serious discussions need to focus on the pediatric population, particularly non-Hispanic black girls and Hispanic boys whose obesity trends show the strongest associations with future diabetes prevalence in children. PMID:25290852

  9. Is diabetes color-blind? Growth of prevalence of diagnosed diabetes in children through 2030.

    PubMed

    Adepoju, Omolola E; Bolin, Jane N; Booth, Eric A; Zhao, Hongwei; Lin, Szu-Hsuan; Phillips, Charles D; Ohsfeldt, Robert L

    2015-06-01

    Diabetes knows no age and affects millions of individuals. Preventing diabetes in children is increasingly becoming a major health policy concern and focus. The objective of this study is to project the number of children, aged 0-17 years, with diagnosed diabetes in the United States through 2030, accounting for changing demography, and diabetes and obesity prevalence rates. The study team combined historic diabetes and obesity prevalence data with US child population estimates and projections. A times-series regression model was used to forecast future diabetes prevalence and to account for the relationship between the forecasted diabetes prevalence and the lagged prevalence of childhood obesity. Overall, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes is projected to increase 67% from 0.22% in 2010 to 0.36% in 2030. Lagged obesity prevalence in Hispanic boys and non-Hispanic black girls was significantly associated with increasing future diabetes prevalence. The study results showed that a 1% increase in obesity prevalence among Hispanic boys from the previous year was significantly associated with a 0.005% increase in future prevalence of diagnosed diabetes in children (P ≤ 0.01). Likewise, a unit increase in obesity prevalence among non-Hispanic black girls was associated with a 0.003% increase in future diabetes prevalence (P < 0.05). Obesity rates for other race/ethnicity combinations were not associated with increasing future diabetes prevalence. To mitigate the continued threat posed by diabetes, serious discussions need to focus on the pediatric population, particularly non-Hispanic black girls and Hispanic boys whose obesity trends show the strongest associations with future diabetes prevalence in children.

  10. Casein Supplementation Does Not Affect the Estimates of True Total Tract Digestibility of Phosphorus in Soybean Meal for Growing Pigs Determined by the Regression Method

    PubMed Central

    Liu, J. B.; Adeola, O.

    2016-01-01

    Forty-eight barrows with an average initial body weight of 25.5±0.3 kg were assigned to 6 dietary treatments arranged in a 3×2 factorial of 3 graded levels of P at 1.42, 2.07, or 2.72 g/kg, and 2 levels of casein at 0 or 50 g/kg to compare the estimates of true total tract digestibility (TTTD) of P in soybean meal (SBM) for pigs fed diets with or without casein supplementation. The SBM is the only source of P in diets without casein, and in the diet with added casein, 1.0 to 2.4 g/kg of total dietary P was supplied by SBM as dietary level of SBM increased. The experiment consisted of a 5-d adjustment period and a 5-d total collection period with ferric oxide as a maker to indicate the initiation and termination of fecal collection. There were interactive effects of casein supplementation and total dietary P level on the apparent total tract digestibility (ATTD) and retention of P (p<0.05). Dietary P intake, fecal P output, digested P and retained P were increased linearly with graded increasing levels of SBM in diets regardless of casein addition (p<0.01). Compared with diets without casein, there was a reduction in fecal P in the casein-supplemented diets, which led to increases in digested P, retained P, ATTD, and retention of P (p<0.01). Digested N, ATTD of N, retained N, and N retention were affected by the interaction of casein supplementation and dietary P level (p<0.05). Fecal N output, urinary N output, digested N, and retained N increased linearly with graded increasing levels of SBM for each type of diet (p<0.01). The estimates of TTTD of P in SBM, derived from the regression of daily digested P against daily P intake, for pigs fed diets without casein and with casein were calculated to be 37.3% and 38.6%, respectively. Regressing daily digested N against daily N intake, the TTTD of N in SBM were determined at 94.3% and 94.4% for diets without casein and with added casein, respectively. There was no difference in determined values of TTTD of P or N in

  11. Prevalence and safety of off-label use of chemotherapeutic agents in older breast cancer patients: estimates from SEER-Medicare data

    PubMed Central

    Eaton, Anne A.; Sima, Camelia S.; Panageas, Katherine S.

    2016-01-01

    Background The practice of prescribing oncology drugs outside of the label indication is legal and may reflect standard practice. However, some off-label use is against practice guidelines and may be inappropriate. We aimed to measure the prevalence and safety of off-label use in accordance with NCCN guidelines and off-label use inconsistent with guidelines in older breast cancer patients. Patients and Methods The SEER-Medicare dataset was used to identify women diagnosed with a first primary breast cancer between 2000-2007. Intravenous chemotherapy agents were identified using Medicare claims and classified as on-label, off-label/NCCN supported or off-label/unsupported using contemporary FDA approvals and NCCN guidelines. Off-label/unsupported regimens were matched to off-label/supported and on-label regimens using 1:1:1 matching on patient factors, and hospitalization/ER admission rates were compared across indication categories using conditional logistic regression. Results 13,347 women were treated with 16,127 regimens (12% of women switched to a new regimen during followup). Sixty-four percent (10,391) of regimens were off-label/supported, 25% (3,987) were on-label and 11% (1,749) were off-label/unsupported. Drugs never supported for breast cancer accounted for 19% of off-label/unsupported use and 1% of total use. Hospitalization/ER admission occurred in 32% of off-label/unsupported regimens, compared to 27% of off-label/supported and 25% of on-label regimens (p<.0001). Conclusions Off-label use of chemotherapy without scientific support was not common in this cohort. Off-label/supported use accounted for 64% of use, reflecting the fact that widely-accepted indications are often not tested in registration trials. Off-label/supported use will likely increase as more drugs are expected to have activity across cancer sites, and understanding the safety implications of such use is critical. PMID:26733555

  12. Cardiovascular risk estimated after 13 years of follow-up in a low-incidence Mediterranean region with high-prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Murcia (south-east Spain) shows increased cardiovascular (CV) morbimortality as compared to other Spanish regions. Our objective was to assess the CV risk associated with major risk factors (RF) among adult population of Murcia. Methods A cohort of 2314 subjects (18-70 years) with full biochemical and questionnaire data was followed-up for 13 years. Incident cases of ischemic heart disease and stroke were identified by record linkage, individual questionnaires and revision of medical records. Relative risks were obtained by multivariate Cox regression stratified by age and sex, and ischemic risk attributable to CVRF was calculated. Results After more than 26276 person-years of follow-up, 57 incident ischemic events (77% men) and 37 stroke cases (62% men) were identified. Independent risk factors of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and all CV events combined, with RR ranging from 1.6 to 2.6, were total serum cholesterol ≥ 240 mg/dl (HR = 2.6, 95%CI:1.3-5.1), blood pressure levels ≥ 140/90 mmHg (HR = 2.6, 95%CI:1.4-4.8), ever tobacco smoking (HR = 2.2; 95%CI:1.1-4.5), and diabetes (HR = 2.0; 95%CI: 1.0-3.8). No increased CV risk was detected for known participants under treatment who showed cholesterol and blood pressure values below the clinical risk threshold. Smoking was significantly associated with stroke. For all events combined, the major risk factors were hypercholesterolemia, hypertension and ever use of tobacco. Despite its high prevalence, obesity was not associated to CV risk. Most of the IHD cases were attributable to smoking (44%), hypertension (38%) and hypercholesterolemia (26%). Conclusions In the Region of Murcia, smoking accounted for the largest proportion of cardiovascular risk, whereas hypertension displaced hypercholesterolemia as the second leading cause of CV disease. Our study deepens in our understanding of the cardiovascular epidemiology in Spanish areas of Mediterranean Europe with relatively high cardiovascular morbimortality

  13. Human land use influences chronic wasting disease prevalence in mule deer

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Farnsworth, Matthew L.; Wolfe, L.L.; Hobbs, N.T.; Burnham, K.P.; Williams, E.S.; Theobald, D.M.; Conner, M.M.; Miller, M.W.

    2005-01-01

    Human alteration of landscapes can affect the distribution, abundance, and behavior of wildlife. We explored the effects of human land use on the prevalence of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) populations residing in north-central Colorado. We chose best approximating models estimating CWD prevalence in relation to differences in human land use, sex, and geographic location. Prevalence was higher in developed areas and among male deer, suggesting anthropogenic influences on the occurrence of disease. We also found a relatively high degree of variation in prevalence across the three study sites, suggesting that spatial patterns in disease may be influenced by other factors operating at a broader, landscape scale. Our results suggest that multiple factors, including changes in land use, differences in exposure risk between sexes, and landscape-scaled heterogeneity, are associated with CWD prevalence in north-central Colorado.

  14. [Estimation of arsenic accumulative intake and residents' health effects in an air pollution area--relationship between arsenic accumulative intake level and arsenicism prevalence].

    PubMed

    Shang, Qi; Ren, Xiuqin; Li, Jinrong

    2002-10-01

    This paper reports the results of epidemiological survey on health effects of residents exposed to arsenic in a pollution area and estimation of arsenic accumulative intake level (EAAIL) based on calculating accumulative rice consumption and via inhalation way. 795 persons were sampled randomly from the polluted area, among whom 674 persons and 83 persons were diagnosed with Chronic Arsenic Absorption (CAA) and Chronic Arsenicism (CA) according to the National Diagnose Standard respectively. There were 60.98% CAA in 30 years old and younger age-groups and 97.59% CA in 30 years old and older age-groups. The one youngest case of CA occurred in 15 years old age group, while its EAAIL was at 1846.47 mg. The highest EAAIL was at 8706.47 mg. The rate of CA had gone obviously up at 30 years old age group. Its EAAIL was at 3833.42 mg. One equation of relationship between the rate of CA (%) and EAAIL (mg) was fitted by means of curve fitting, its is followed: Y = X1.843/e12.694 -2.866, r2 = 0.945.

  15. Estimating the Prevalence and Predictors of Incorrect Condom Use Among Sexually Active Adults in Kenya: Results From a Nationally Representative Survey

    PubMed Central

    Grasso, Michael A.; Schwarcz, Sandra; Galbraith, Jennifer S.; Musyoki, Helgar; Kambona, Caroline; Kellogg, Timothy A.

    2016-01-01

    Background Condom use continues to be an important primary prevention tool to reduce the acquisition and transmission of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. However, incorrect use of condoms can reduce their effectiveness. Methods Using data from a 2012 nationally representative cross-sectional household survey conducted in Kenya, we analyzed a subpopulation of sexually active adults and estimated the percent that used condoms incorrectly during sex, and the type of condom errors. We used multivariable logistic regression to determine variables to be independently associated with incorrect condom use. Results Among 13,720 adolescents and adults, 8014 were sexually active in the previous 3 months (60.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 59.0–61.7). Among those who used a condom with a sex partner, 20% (95% CI, 17.4–22.6) experienced at least one instance of incorrect condom use in the previous 3 months. Of incorrect condom users, condom breakage or leakage was the most common error (52%; 95% CI, 44.5–59.6). Factors found to be associated with incorrect condom use were multiple sexual partnerships in the past 12 months (2 partners: adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.5; 95% CI, 1.0–2.0; P = 0.03; ≥3: aOR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.5–3.5; P < 0.01) and reporting symptoms of a sexually transmitted infection (aOR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.8–4.3; P < 0.01). Conclusions Incorrect condom use is frequent among sexually active Kenyans and this may translate into substantial HIV transmission. Further understanding of the dynamics of condom use and misuse, in the broader context of other prevention strategies, will aid program planners in the delivery of appropriate interventions aimed at limiting such errors. PMID:26766524

  16. A no-reference bitstream-based perceptual model for video quality estimation of videos affected by coding artifacts and packet losses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pandremmenou, K.; Shahid, M.; Kondi, L. P.; Lövström, B.

    2015-03-01

    In this work, we propose a No-Reference (NR) bitstream-based model for predicting the quality of H.264/AVC video sequences, affected by both compression artifacts and transmission impairments. The proposed model is based on a feature extraction procedure, where a large number of features are calculated from the packet-loss impaired bitstream. Many of the features are firstly proposed in this work, and the specific set of the features as a whole is applied for the first time for making NR video quality predictions. All feature observations are taken as input to the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression method. LASSO indicates the most important features, and using only them, it is possible to estimate the Mean Opinion Score (MOS) with high accuracy. Indicatively, we point out that only 13 features are able to produce a Pearson Correlation Coefficient of 0.92 with the MOS. Interestingly, the performance statistics we computed in order to assess our method for predicting the Structural Similarity Index and the Video Quality Metric are equally good. Thus, the obtained experimental results verified the suitability of the features selected by LASSO as well as the ability of LASSO in making accurate predictions through sparse modeling.

  17. Trends in cancer prevalence in Quebec.

    PubMed

    Louchini, Rabia; Beaupré, Michel; Demers, Alain A; Goggin, Patricia; Bouchard, Clermont

    2006-01-01

    Cancer prevalence is of prime interest in public health because of its use in estimating the disease's burden on the heath care system. This study's objective was to estimate five-year prevalence of tumours from 1989 to 1999 and ten-year prevalence of tumours from 1994 to 1999 in the Province of Quebec (Canada). Five-year prevalence was used to represent tumours for which people are more likely to obtain primary treatment; ten-year prevalence included those tumours in addition to tumours that can be considered cured but still need follow-up. Information was extracted from the Quebec Cancer Registry. Prostate cancer was the most prevalent malignancy among males (25 percent, five-year prevalent tumours), while breast cancer was most prevalent among females (38 percent, five-year prevalent tumours). For both sexes, the greatest observed prevalence increase was for endocrine glands. On average, five-year prevalence proportions were 16 percent higher in men than in women; those of ten year were 14 percent higher in men. Furthermore, the largest differences were observed for bladder and lung cancer. The change in cancer prevalence in Quebec was dependent on the tumour site. PMID:17306062

  18. Decreasing prevalence of the full metabolic syndrome but a persistently high prevalence of dyslipidemia among adult Arabs.

    PubMed

    Al-Daghri, Nasser M; Al-Attas, Omar S; Alokail, Majed S; Alkharfy, Khalid M; Sabico, Shaun Louie B; Chrousos, George P

    2010-01-01

    A decade has passed since metabolic syndrome (MetS) was documented to be highly prevalent in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. No follow-up epidemiologic study was done. This study aims to fill this gap. In this cross-sectional, observational study, a total of 2850 randomly selected Saudi adults aged 18-55 years were recruited. Subjects' information was generated from a database of more than 10,000 Saudi citizens from the existing Biomarkers Screening in Riyadh Program (RIYADH Cohort), Saudi Arabia. Anthropometrics included body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, as well as waist and hip circumferences. Fasting blood glucose and lipid profile were determined using routine laboratory procedures. The definition of ATP-III (NHANES III) was used for the diagnosis of the full MetS. The overall prevalence of complete MetS was 35.3% [Confidence-Interval (CI) 33.5-37.01]. Age-adjusted prevalence according to the European standard population is 37.0%. Low HDL-cholesterol was the most prevalent of all MetS risk factors, affecting 88.6% (CI 87.5-89.7) and hypertriglyceridemia the second most prevalent, affecting 34% (CI 32.3-35.7) of the subjects. The prevalence of the full MetS decreased from previous estimates but remains high, while dyslipidemia remains extremely high, affecting almost 90% of middle-aged Arabs. Screening for dyslipidemia among Saudi adults is warranted, especially among those most at risk. Scientific inquiry into the molecular causes of these manifestations should be pursued as a first step in the discovery of etiologic therapies.

  19. Socioeconomic determinants of prostate-specific antigen testing and estimation of the prevalence of undiagnosed prostate cancer in an elderly Polish population based on the PolSenior study

    PubMed Central

    Prajsner, Andrzej; Szybalska, Aleksandra; Piotrowicz, Karolina; Zejda, Jan; Więcek, Andrzej

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Socioeconomic determinants of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing and prevalence of undiagnosed prostate cancer (PCa) in the Polish population are poorly understood. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with PSA testing in elderly Polish men, and estimate the size of the population at risk of PCa related to PSA non-testing. Material and methods We analyzed questionnaire-derived data concerning PSA testing, obtained in 2567 elderly and 332 younger (age: 55–59) participants of the population-based PolSenior study. Additionally, PSA was measured in 2414 subjects. Results The PSA had previously been tested in 41.2% of elderly and in 24.8% of younger participants. Non-smoking status (OR = 2.06, p < 0.001), higher personal income (OR = 1.56, p < 0.001), better education (OR = 1.49, p = 0.001), previous white-collar work (OR = 1.37, p = 0.005), alcohol abstinence (OR = 1.28, p = 0.02), married status (OR = 1.24, p = 0.04), dependence in Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) but not in Activities of Daily Living (ADL) (OR = 0.65, p < 0.001), and dependence in ADL (OR = 0.55, p < 0.001) were independent predictors of previous PSA testing in elderly participants. There were 31 elderly previously treated for PCa (calculated standardized prevalence: 935 per 100,000 elderly population). The PSA levels > 4 ng/ml were found in 12.8% of 65–74-year-old and 4.5% of 55–59-year-old previously non-tested participants. We calculated the standardized prevalence rate of undiagnosed PCa as approximately 1370 and 2352 cases per 100,000 population aged 55–59 and 65–74 years, respectively. Conclusions In Poland, 58.8% of elderly men have never had PSA tested. These were less likely to be functionally independent, married, better educated, non-smokers or to have previous office employment or higher than average personal income. Our data suggest substantial underdiagnosis of prostate cancer among Polish men. PMID:27695494

  20. [The prevalence of dementia in Denmark].

    PubMed

    Jørgensen, Kasper; Waldemar, Gunhild

    2014-11-24

    The exact prevalence of dementia in Denmark is unknown. Based on epidemiological data we have calculated possible estimates for the present Danish prevalence of dementia and prevalence projections through to 2030. The discrepancy between estimates based on epidemiological studies and the number of dementia diagnoses in registers indicates that dementia may be underdiagnosed. Even though results from recent epidemiological studies point to a possible decline in incidence we expect the future prevalence of dementia to increase due to an expected increase of the elderly population.

  1. Prevalence of chronic medical conditions among inmates in the Texas prison system.

    PubMed

    Harzke, Amy J; Baillargeon, Jacques G; Pruitt, Sandi L; Pulvino, John S; Paar, David P; Kelley, Michael F

    2010-05-01

    Given the rapid growth and aging of the US prison population in recent years, the disease profile and health care needs of inmates portend to have far-reaching public health implications. Although numerous studies have examined infectious disease prevalence and treatment in incarcerated populations, little is known about the prevalence of non-infectious chronic medical conditions in US prison populations. The purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence of selected non-infectious chronic medical conditions among inmates in the Texas prison system. The study population consisted of the total census of inmates who were incarcerated in the Texas Department of Criminal Justice for any duration from September 1, 2006 through August 31, 2007 (N=234,031). Information on medical diagnoses was obtained from a system-wide electronic medical record system. Overall crude prevalence estimates for the selected conditions were as follows: hypertension, 18.8%; asthma, 5.4%; diabetes, 4.2%; ischemic heart disease, 1.7%; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 0.96%; and cerebrovascular disease, 0.23%. Nearly one quarter (24.5%) of the study population had at least one of the selected conditions. Except for asthma, crude prevalence estimates of the selected conditions increased monotonically with age. Nearly two thirds (64.6%) of inmates who were >or=55 years of age had at least one of the selected conditions. Except for diabetes, crude prevalence estimates for the selected conditions were lower among Hispanic inmates than among non-Hispanic White inmates and African American inmates. Although age-standardized prevalence estimates for the selected conditions did not appear to exceed age-standardized estimates from the US general population, a large number of inmates were affected by one or more of these conditions. As the prison population continues to grow and to age, the burden of these conditions on correctional and community health care systems can be expected to increase

  2. Quantifying Listeria monocytogenes prevalence and concentration in minced pork meat and estimating performance of three culture media from presence/absence microbiological testing using a deterministic and stochastic approach.

    PubMed

    Andritsos, Nikolaos D; Mataragas, Marios; Paramithiotis, Spiros; Drosinos, Eleftherios H

    2013-12-01

    Listeria monocytogenes poses a serious threat to public health, and the majority of cases of human listeriosis are associated with contaminated food. Reliable microbiological testing is needed for effective pathogen control by food industry and competent authorities. The aims of this work were to estimate the prevalence and concentration of L. monocytogenes in minced pork meat by the application of a Bayesian modeling approach, and also to determine the performance of three culture media commonly used for detecting L. monocytogenes in foods from a deterministic and stochastic perspective. Samples (n = 100) collected from local markets were tested for L. monocytogenes using in parallel the PALCAM, ALOA and RAPID'L.mono selective media according to ISO 11290-1:1996 and 11290-2:1998 methods. Presence of the pathogen was confirmed by conducting biochemical and molecular tests. Independent experiments (n = 10) for model validation purposes were performed. Performance attributes were calculated from the presence-absence microbiological test results by combining the results obtained from the culture media and confirmative tests. Dirichlet distribution, the multivariate expression of a Beta distribution, was used to analyze the performance data from a stochastic perspective. No L. monocytogenes was enumerated by direct-plating (<10 CFU/g), though the pathogen was detected in 22% of the samples. L. monocytogenes concentration was estimated at 14-17 CFU/kg. Validation showed good agreement between observed and predicted prevalence (error = -2.17%). The results showed that all media were best at ruling in L. monocytogenes presence than ruling it out. Sensitivity and specificity varied depending on the culture-dependent method. None of the culture media was perfect in detecting L. monocytogenes in minced pork meat alone. The use of at least two culture media in parallel enhanced the efficiency of L. monocytogenes detection. Bayesian modeling may reduce the time needed to draw

  3. ADHD Prevalence in Adult Outpatients with Nonpsychotic Psychiatric Illnesses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Almeida Montes, Luis Guillermo; Hernandez Garcia, Ana Olivia; Ricardo-Garcell, Josefina

    2007-01-01

    Objective: The prevalence of ADHD in the general adult population has been estimated to be about 4.4%. However, few studies exist in which the prevalence of ADHD in psychiatric adult outpatient samples has been estimated. These studies suggest that the prevalence is higher than in the general population. The objective of this study is to estimate…

  4. Prevalence of treated epilepsy in Korea based on national health insurance data.

    PubMed

    Lee, Seo-Young; Jung, Ki-Young; Lee, Il Keun; Yi, Sang Do; Cho, Yong Won; Kim, Dong Wook; Hwang, Seung-Sik; Kim, Sejin

    2012-03-01

    The Korean national health security system covers the entire population and all medical facilities. We aimed to estimate epilepsy prevalence, anticonvulsant utilization pattern and the cost. We identified prevalent epilepsy patients by the prescription of anticonvulsants under the diagnostic codes suggesting seizure or epilepsy from 2007 Korean National Health Insurance databases. The information of demography, residential area, the kind of medical security service reflecting economic status, anticonvulsants, and the costs was extracted. The overall prevalence of treated epilepsy patients was 2.41/1,000, and higher for men than women. The age-specific prevalence was the lowest in those in their thirties and forties. Epilepsy was more prevalent among lower-income individuals receiving medical aid. The regional prevalence was the highest in Jeju Island and lowest in Ulsan city. New anticonvulsants were more frequently used than old anticonvulsants in the younger age group. The total annual cost of epilepsy or seizure reached 0.46% of total medical expenditure and 0.27% of total expenditure on health. This is the first nationwide epidemiological report issued on epilepsy in Korea. Epilepsy prevalence in Korea is comparable to those in developed countries. Economic status and geography affect the prevalence of epilepsy.

  5. PREVALENCE OF HELICOBACTER PYLORI TEN YEARS AGO COMPARED TO THE CURRENT PREVALENCE IN PATIENTS UNDERGOING UPPER ENDOSCOPY

    PubMed Central

    FRUGIS, Sandra; CZECZKO, Nicolau Gregori; MALAFAIA, Osvaldo; PARADA, Artur Adolfo; POLETTI, Paula Bechara; SECCHI, Thiago Festa; DEGIOVANI, Matheus; RAMPANAZZO-NETO, Alécio; D´AGOSTINO, Mariza D.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Background: Helicobacter pylori has been extensively studied since 1982 it is estimated that 50% of the world population is affected. The literature lacks studies that show the change of its prevalence in the same population over time. Aim: To compare the prevalence of H. pylori in 10 years interval in a population that was submitted to upper endoscopy in the same endoscopy service. Method: Observational, retrospective and cross-sectional study comparing the prevalence of H. pylori in two samples with 10 years apart (2004 and 2014) who underwent endoscopy with biopsy and urease. Patients were studied in three consecutive months of 2004, compared to three consecutive months of 2014. The total number of patients was 2536, and 1406 in 2004 and 1130 in 2014. Results: There were positive for H. pylori in 17 % of the sample as a whole. There was a significant decrease in the prevalence from 19.3% in 2004 to 14.1% in 2014 (p<0.005). Conclusion: There was a 5.2% reduction in the prevalence of H. pylori comparing two periods of three consecutive months with 10 years apart in two equivalent population samples. PMID:27759776

  6. A reassessment of frequency estimates of PvuII-generated VNTR profiles in a Finnish, an Italian, and a general U.S. Caucasian database: no evidence for ethnic subgroups affecting forensic estimates.

    PubMed

    Budowle, B; Monson, K L; Giusti, A M

    1994-09-01

    Recently, Krane et al. addressed the effect of estimating various target DNA profile frequencies in Finnish, Italian, and general U.S. Caucasian databases. They observed that, when using an "inappropriate ethnic," or noncognate, database (e.g., a Finnish target profile frequency estimated in an Italian database, and vice versa), estimates were less common than when the target profile frequencies were estimated using their own ethnic, or cognate, database, and these estimates differed by more than one order of magnitude. These differences were attributed to the effects of subgroups. We demonstrate that the differences can be ascribed to statistical artifacts that induce large biases and correlations. Additionally, we show that the differences of estimates of any specific DNA profile frequency based on allelic size frequencies from different databases become smaller when the fixed-bin rather than a +/- 2.5% floating-bin approach is used. PMID:7915881

  7. Prevalence of autism-caused disability among Chinese children: a national population-based survey.

    PubMed

    Li, Ning; Chen, Gong; Song, Xinming; Du, Wei; Zheng, Xiaoying

    2011-12-01

    Few articles in English have discussed the prevalence of autism in China. The work described here was aimed at estimating the prevalence rate of autism-caused disability among Chinese children and exploring family environmental factors associated with autism based on a national population sample. Data for this study were derived from the Second China National Sample Survey on Disability. A weighted number of 77,301 disabled children affected by autism were identified, yielding a prevalence rate of 2.38/10,000. A history of mental disorders in adults was strongly associated with autism. The prevalence of autism in Chinese children was underestimated, and the lack of qualified professionals able to identify and diagnose autism was the main reason. Countermeasures are warranted to obtain a more precise overview of autism in China.

  8. Current Prevalence Pattern of Hypertension in Nigeria: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Akinlua, James Tosin; Meakin, Richard; Umar, Aminu Mahmoud; Freemantle, Nick

    2015-01-01

    Background The global burden of hypertension and other non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is rapidly increasing, and the African continent seems to be the most affected region in the world. The prevalence of hypertension in Nigeria forms a substantial portion of the total burden in Africa because of the large population of the country currently estimated to be over 170 million. Objective The purpose of this systematic review is to summarise up to date data on the prevalence and distribution of hypertension in Nigeria from prevalence studies. Methods A search of the following databases: PubMed, EMBase and WHO cardiovascular InfoBase from 1968 till date was conducted to identify studies which provide estimates of prevalence of hypertension in Nigeria. Results The search yielded a total of 1748 hits from which 45 relevant studies met the inclusion criteria for the review. The overall crude prevalence of hypertension ranged from 0.1% (95%CI:-0.1 to 0.3) to 17.5% (95% CI: 13.6 to 21.4) in children and 2.1% (95%CI: 1.4 to 2.8) to 47.2% (95%CI: 43.6 to 50.8) in adults depending on the benchmark used for diagnosis of hypertension, the setting in which the study was conducted, sex and ethnic group. The crude prevalence of hypertension ranged from 6.2% (95%CI: 4.0 to 8.4) to 48.9% (95%CI: 42.3 to 55.5) for men and 10% (95%CI: 8.1 to 12) to 47.3% (95%CI: 43 to 51.6%) for women. In most studies, prevalence of hypertension was higher in males than females. In addition, prevalence across urban and rural ranged from 9.5% (95%CI: 13.6 to 21.4) to 51.6% (95%CI: 49.8 to 53.4) and 4.8% (95%CI: 2.9 to 6.7) to 43% (95%CI: 42.1 to 43.9) respectively. Conclusions The prevalence of hypertension is high among the Nigerian population. Appropriate interventions need to be developed and implemented to reduce the preventable burden of hypertension especially at Primary Health Care Centres which is the first point of call for over 55% of the Nigerian population. PMID:26461923

  9. Global Prevalence of Chronic Kidney Disease – A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Fatoba, Samuel T.; Oke, Jason L.; Hirst, Jennifer A.; O’Callaghan, Christopher A.; Lasserson, Daniel S.; Hobbs, F. D. Richard

    2016-01-01

    Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a global health burden with a high economic cost to health systems and is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). All stages of CKD are associated with increased risks of cardiovascular morbidity, premature mortality, and/or decreased quality of life. CKD is usually asymptomatic until later stages and accurate prevalence data are lacking. Thus we sought to determine the prevalence of CKD globally, by stage, geographical location, gender and age. A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies estimating CKD prevalence in general populations was conducted through literature searches in 8 databases. We assessed pooled data using a random effects model. Of 5,842 potential articles, 100 studies of diverse quality were included, comprising 6,908,440 patients. Global mean(95%CI) CKD prevalence of 5 stages 13·4%(11·7–15·1%), and stages 3–5 was 10·6%(9·2–12·2%). Weighting by study quality did not affect prevalence estimates. CKD prevalence by stage was Stage-1 (eGFR>90+ACR>30): 3·5% (2·8–4·2%); Stage-2 (eGFR 60–89+ACR>30): 3·9% (2·7–5·3%); Stage-3 (eGFR 30–59): 7·6% (6·4–8·9%); Stage-4 = (eGFR 29–15): 0·4% (0·3–0·5%); and Stage-5 (eGFR<15): 0·1% (0·1–0·1%). CKD has a high global prevalence with a consistent estimated global CKD prevalence of between 11 to 13% with the majority stage 3. Future research should evaluate intervention strategies deliverable at scale to delay the progression of CKD and improve CVD outcomes. PMID:27383068

  10. Converging seasonal prevalence dynamics in experimental epidemics

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Regular seasonal changes in prevalence of infectious diseases are often observed in nature, but the mechanisms are rarely understood. Empirical tests aiming at a better understanding of seasonal prevalence patterns are not feasible for most diseases and thus are widely lacking. Here, we set out to study experimentally the seasonal prevalence in an aquatic host-parasite system. The microsporidian parasite Hamiltosporidium tvärminnensis exhibits pronounced seasonality in natural rock pool populations of its host, Daphnia magna with a regular increase of prevalence during summer and a decrease during winter. An earlier study was, however, unable to test if different starting conditions (initial prevalence) influence the dynamics of the disease in the long term. Here, we aim at testing how the starting prevalence affects the regular prevalence changes over a 4-year period in experimental populations. Results In an outdoor experiment, populations were set up to include the extremes of the prevalence spectrum observed in natural populations: 5% initial prevalence mimicking a newly invading parasite, 100% mimicking a rock pool population founded by infected hosts only, and 50% prevalence which is commonly observed in natural populations in spring. The parasite exhibited similar prevalence changes in all treatments, but seasonal patterns in the 100% treatment differed significantly from those in the 5% and 50% treatments. Populations started with 5% and 50% prevalence exhibited strong and regular seasonality already in the first year. In contrast, the amplitude of changes in the 100% treatment was low throughout the experiment demonstrating the long-lasting effect of initial conditions on prevalence dynamics. Conclusions Our study shows that the time needed to approach the seasonal changes in prevalence depends strongly on the initial prevalence. Because individual D. magna populations in this rock pool metapopulation are mostly short lived, only few

  11. Prevalence of and potential influencing factors for alcohol dependence in Europe.

    PubMed

    Rehm, Jürgen; Anderson, Peter; Barry, Joe; Dimitrov, Plamen; Elekes, Zsuzsanna; Feijão, Fernanda; Frick, Ulrich; Gual, Antoni; Gmel, Gerrit; Kraus, Ludwig; Marmet, Simon; Raninen, Jonas; Rehm, Maximilien X; Scafato, Emanuele; Shield, Kevin D; Trapencieris, Marcis; Gmel, Gerhard

    2015-01-01

    Alcohol use disorders (AUDs), and alcohol dependence (AD) in particular, are prevalent and associated with a large burden of disability and mortality. The aim of this study was to estimate prevalence of AD in the European Union (EU), Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland for the year 2010, and to investigate potential influencing factors. The 1-year prevalence of AD in the EU was estimated at 3.4% among people 18-64 years of age in Europe (women 1.7%, men 5.2%), resulting in close to 11 million affected people. Taking into account all people of all ages, AD, abuse and harmful use resulted in an estimate of 23 million affected people. Prevalence of AD varied widely between European countries, and was significantly impacted by drinking cultures and social norms. Correlations with level of drinking and other drinking variables and with major known outcomes of heavy drinking, such as liver cirrhosis or injury, were moderate. These results suggest a need to rethink the definition of AUDs.

  12. Prevalence of arthritis in India and Pakistan: a review.

    PubMed

    Akhter, Ehtisham; Bilal, Saira; Kiani, Adnan; Haque, Uzma

    2011-07-01

    Recent studies of rheumatoid arthritis worldwide suggest that prevalence of arthritis is higher in Europe and North America than in developing countries. Prevalence data for major arthritis disorders have been compiled in West for several decades, but figures from the third world are just emerging. A coordinated effort by WHO and ILAR (International League Against Rheumatism) has resulted in collecting data for countries like Philippines, China, Malaysia, Indonesia, and rural South Africa but the information about prevalence of arthritis in India and Pakistan is scarce. Since both countries, i.e., India and Pakistan, share some ethnic identity, we reviewed published literature to examine the prevalence of arthritis in these countries. Medline and Pubmed were searched for suitable articles about arthritis from 1980 and onwards. Findings from these articles were reviewed and summarized. The prevalence, clinical features, and laboratory findings of rheumatoid arthritis are compiled for both India and Pakistan. Data collected from these two countries were compared with each other, and some of the characteristics of the disease were compared with Europe and North America. It is found to be quite similar to developed countries. Additionally, juvenile rheumatoid arthritis is of different variety than reported in West. It is more of polyarticular onset type while in West pauciarticular predominates. Additionally, in systemic onset, JRA uveitis and ANA are common finding in developed countries; on the other hand, they are hardly seen in this region. Although the prevalence of arthritis in Pakistan and India is similar to Western countries, there are inherent differences (clinical features, laboratory findings) in the presentation of disease. The major strength of the study is that it is the first to pool reports to provide an estimate of the disease in the Indian subcontinent. Scarcity of data is one of the major limitations. This study helps to understand the pattern of

  13. Classification and prevalence of foot lesions in captive flamingos (Phoenicopteridae).

    PubMed

    Nielsen, Adriana M W; Nielsen, Søren S; King, Catherine E; Bertelsen, Mads F

    2010-03-01

    Foot lesions can compromise the health and welfare of captive birds. In this study, we estimated the prevalence of foot lesions in captive flamingos (Phoenicopteridae). The study was based on photos of 1,495 pairs of foot soles from 854 flamingos in 18 European and two Texan (USA) zoological collections. Methodology for evaluating flamingo feet lesions was developed for this project because no suitable method had been reported in the literature. Four types of foot lesions were identified: hyperkeratoses, fissures, nodular lesions, and papillomatous growths. Seven areas on each foot received a severity score from 0 to 2 for each type of lesion (0 = no lesion, 1 = mild to moderate lesion, 2 = severe lesion). The prevalence of birds with lesions (scores 1 or 2) were 100%, 87%, 17%, and 46% for hyperkeratosis, fissures, nodular lesions, and papillomatous growths, respectively. Birds with severe lesions (score 2) constituted 67%, 46%, 4%, and 12% for hyperkeratosis, fissures, nodular lesions, and papillomatous growths, respectively. Hyperkeratosis and nodular lesions were most prevalent on the base of the foot and the proximal portion of the digits, likely reflecting those areas bearing the most weight. The second and fourth digits were most affected with fissures and papillomatous lesions; these areas of the foot appear to be where the most flexion occurs during ambulation. The study demonstrates that foot lesions are highly prevalent and widely distributed in the study population, indicating that they are an extensive problem in captive flamingos.

  14. Basic numerical capacities and prevalence of developmental dyscalculia: the Havana Survey.

    PubMed

    Reigosa-Crespo, Vivian; Valdés-Sosa, Mitchell; Butterworth, Brian; Estévez, Nancy; Rodríguez, Marisol; Santos, Elsa; Torres, Paul; Suárez, Ramón; Lage, Agustín

    2012-01-01

    The association of enumeration and number comparison capacities with arithmetical competence was examined in a large sample of children from 2nd to 9th grades. It was found that efficiency on numerical capacities predicted separately more than 25% of the variance in the individual differences on a timed arithmetical test, and this occurred for both younger and older learners. These capacities were also significant predictors of individual variations in an untimed curriculum-based math achievement test and on the teacher scores of math performance over developmental time. Based on these findings, these numerical capacities were used for estimating the prevalence and gender ratio of basic numerical deficits and developmental dyscalculia (DD) over the grade range defined above (N = 11,652 children). The extent to which DD affects the population with poor ability on calculation was also examined. For this purpose, the prevalence and gender ratio of arithmetical dysfluency (AD) were estimated in the same cohort. The estimated prevalence of DD was 3.4%, and the male:female ratio was 4:1. However, the prevalence of AD was almost 3 times as high (9.35%), and no gender differences were found (male:female ratio = 1.07:1). Basic numerical deficits affect 4.54% of school-age population and affect more boys than girls (2.4:1). The differences between the corresponding estimates were highly significant (α < .01). Based on these contrastive findings, it is concluded that DD, defined as a defective sense of numerosity, could be a distinctive disorder that affects only a portion of children with AD. PMID:21910533

  15. Prevalence of Metabolically Healthy Obese and Metabolically Obese but Normal Weight in Adults Worldwide: A Meta-Analysis.

    PubMed

    Wang, B; Zhuang, R; Luo, X; Yin, L; Pang, C; Feng, T; You, H; Zhai, Y; Ren, Y; Zhang, L; Li, L; Zhao, J; Hu, D

    2015-10-01

    The objective of the present study was to summarize the prevalence and influencing factors of metabolically healthy obese (MHO) and metabolically obese but normal weight (MONW) among people ≥ 18 years old in the general population worldwide. We searched for studies of the prevalence of MHO and MONW published in English and Chinese up to October 2013. Pooled prevalence estimates were calculated by a random-effects model according to a Q test. The effects of gender, region, age, sample size, smoking, and alcohol consumption on MHO and MONW were analyzed. Differences between subgroups were assessed by chi-square test. Publication bias was estimated by Egger's test. Studies of MHO and MONW showed heterogeneity (I(2)=99.4% and I(2)=99.7%, respectively). The overall prevalence of MHO and MONW was 7.27% (95% CI 5.92-8.90%) and 19.98% (95% CI 16.54-23.94%), respectively. American populations had the highest MHO prevalence and European populations the highest MONW prevalence. Different patterns of MHO and MONW were observed in the subgroup analysis with respect to gender, age, sample size, smoking, alcohol consumption, and metabolically healthy criteria. The prevalence of both MHO and MONW were affected by gender, region, age, sample size, smoking, alcohol consumption, and metabolically healthy criteria, but studies showed high heterogeneity. PMID:26340705

  16. Prevalence of nodding syndrome--Uganda, 2012-2013.

    PubMed

    Iyengar, Preetha J; Wamala, Joseph; Ratto, Jeffrey; Blanton, Curtis; Malimbo, Mugagga; Lukwago, Luswa; Becknell, Steven; Downing, Robert; Bunga, Sudhir; Sejvar, James; Makumbi, Issa

    2014-07-18

    Nodding syndrome (NS) is a seizure disorder of unknown etiology, predominately affecting children aged 3-18 years in three sub-Saharan countries (Uganda, South Sudan, and Tanzania), with the primary feature of episodic head nodding. These episodes are thought to be one manifestation of a syndrome that includes neurologic deterioration, cognitive impairment, and additional seizure types. NS investigations have focused on clinical features, progression, and etiology; however, none have provided a population-based prevalence assessment using a standardized case definition. In March 2013, CDC and the Ugandan Ministry of Health (MOH) conducted a single-stage cluster survey to perform the first systematic assessment of prevalence of NS in Uganda using a new consensus case definition, which was modified during the course of the investigation. Based on the modified definition, the estimated number of probable NS cases in children aged 5-18 years in three northern Uganda districts was 1,687 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1,463-1,912), for a prevalence of 6.8 (CI = 5.9-7.7) probable NS cases per 1,000 children aged 5-18 years in the three districts. These findings can guide the MOH to understand and provide the health-care resources necessary to address NS in northern Uganda, and provide a basis for future studies of NS in Uganda and in other areas affected by NS. PMID:25029112

  17. Spatiotemporal factors affecting fish harvest and their use in estimating the monthly yield of single otter trawls in Putuo district of Zhoushan, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yingbin; Zheng, Ji; Wang, Yang; Zheng, Xianzhi

    2012-07-01

    We used generalized additive models (GAM) to analyze the relationship between spatiotemporal factors and catch, and to estimate the monthly marine fishery yield of single otter trawls in Putuo district of Zhoushan, China. We used logbooks from five commercial fishing boats and data in government's monthly statistical reports. We developed two GAM models: one included temporal variables (month and hauling time) and spatial variables (longitude and latitude), and another included just two variables, month and the number of fishing boats. Our results suggest that temporal factors explained more of the variability in catch than spatial factors. Furthermore, month explained the majority of variation in catch. Change in spatial distribution of fleet had a temporal component as the boats fished within a relatively small area within the same month, but the area varied among months. The number of boats fishing in each month also explained a large proportion of the variation in catch. Engine power had no effect on catch. The pseudo-coefficients (PCf) of the two GAMs were 0.13 and 0.29 respectively, indicating the both had good fits. The model yielded estimates that were very similar to those in the governmental reports between January to September, with relative estimate errors (REE) of <18%. However, the yields in October and November were significantly underestimated, with REEs of 36% and 27%, respectively.

  18. Field reconnaissance and estimation of petroleum hydrocarbon and heavy metal contents of soils affected by the Ebocha-8 oil spillage in Niger Delta, Nigeria.

    PubMed

    Osuji, Leo C; Onojake, Chukunedum M

    2006-04-01

    Field reconnaissance of the Ebocha-8 oil spill-affected site at Obiobi/Obrikom in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria was carried out to assess the extent of damage to the terrestrial ecosystem and delimit the epicenter of oil spillage. Following three successive reconnaissance surveys, the area to be sampled was delimited (200 x 200 m2), and soil samples were collected using the grid method from three replicate quadrats at two depths, surface (0-15 cm) and subsurface (15-30 cm). A geographically similar area located 50 m adjacent to the oil-polluted area was used as a reference (control) site. Total hydrocarbon content (THC) and heavy metal concentrations were later determined in the laboratory by extraction and spetrophotemetric techniques. Generally, the THC of soils at surface and subsurface depths of the oil-polluted plots was 2.06 x 10(4) +/- 4.97 x 10(3) mg/kg and 1.67 x 10(3) +/- 3.61 x 10(2) mg/kg soil, respectively, (no overlap in standard errors at 95% confidence limit) while concentrations of heavy metals(Pb, Cd, V, Cu and Ni) were enhanced, especially at the surface. The high levels of THC and heavy metals may predispose the site, which hitherto served as arable agricultural land, to impaired fertility and possible conflagration. When concentrations of heavy metals reach the levels obtained in this study, they may become toxic to plants or possibly bio-accumulate, thus leading to toxic reactions along the food chain. While the spilled-oil may have contributed to the enhanced levels of the metals in the affected soils, physico-chemical properties of the soils, mobility of metals, and the intense rainfall and flooding that preceded the period of study may have also contributed in part to their enhanced concentrations. The presence of high hydrocarbon content may cause oxygen deprivation, which may result in the death of soil fauna by asphyxiation. There is, therefore, an urgent need to clear the affected site of these excess hydrocarbon deposits so as to

  19. Determinants of distribution and prevalence of avian malaria in blue tit populations across Europe: separating host and parasite effects.

    PubMed

    Szöllosi, E; Cichoń, M; Eens, M; Hasselquist, D; Kempenaers, B; Merino, S; Nilsson, J-Å; Rosivall, B; Rytkönen, S; Török, J; Wood, M J; Garamszegi, L Z

    2011-09-01

    Although avian malarial parasites are globally distributed, the factors that affect the geographical distribution and local prevalence of different parasite lineages across host populations or species are still poorly understood. Based on the intense screening of avian malarial parasites in nine European blue tit populations, we studied whether distribution ranges as well as local adaptation, host specialization and phylogenetic relationships can determine the observed prevalences within populations. We found that prevalence differed consistently between parasite lineages and host populations, indicating that the transmission success of parasites is lineage specific but is partly shaped by locality-specific effects. We also found that the lineage-specific estimate of prevalence was related to the distribution range of parasites: lineages found in more host populations were generally more prevalent within these populations. Additionally, parasites with high prevalence that were also widely distributed among blue tit populations were also found to infect more host species. These findings suggest that parasites reaching high local prevalence can also realize wide distribution at a global scale that can have further consequences for host specialization. Although phylogenetic relationships among parasites did not predict prevalence, we detected a close match between a tree based on the geographic distance of the host populations and the parasite phylogenetic tree, implying that neighbouring host populations shared a related parasite fauna. PMID:21726328

  20. Sero-prevalence of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in large ruminants at peri urban dairy farms near Islamabad, Pakistan

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an important, endemic, trans-boundary viral disease affecting livestock in Pakistan and associated with high economic losses. This survey was conducted to estimate sero-prevalence of FMD in large ruminants from peri-urban dairy farms near Islamabad. Serum samples were...

  1. Evaluation of Factors Affecting Collection Efficiency Estimates of Chinook Salmon and Steelhead Smolts at McNary Dam, 1989 Final Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Stuehrenberg, Lowell; Smith, Douglas; Johnson, Orlay W.

    1995-10-01

    Populations of salmonid smolts migrating through the hydropower system on the Columbia River incur some rate of mortality at each dam. To set priorities on options to minimize losses and provide safe passage of the smolts at dams, estimates of smolt survival at each dam are necessary. Two methods have been developed to obtain these survival estimates: the direct and the indirect method. With the indirect method, a test group of fish is released upstream and a-control group is released downstream from the area of interest. With the direct method, a single release of fish above the area of interest is used, with subsequent recovery below the area of interest. In 1988, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) began a 2-year study at McNary Dam to address possible sources of variation associated with the direct method of obtaining survival estimates. Five study objectives were established to determine whether (1) fish from the Columbia and Snake Rivers mixed as they migrated to McNary Dam (release-location tests); (2) collection rates for Columbia and Snake River stocks were the same (river-of-origin tests); (3) test-group release timing influenced recovery rates (time-of-release tests); (4) a collection-rate bias existed from use of test fish previously guided and collected at the recovery site (tests of previously guided fish); and (5) recovery rates obtained with PIT-tagged fish were comparable to those previously obtained with freeze-branded fish (PIT-tag vs. freeze-brand technology).

  2. Temporal Uncertainty and Temporal Estimation Errors Affect Insular Activity and the Frontostriatal Indirect Pathway during Action Update: A Predictive Coding Study

    PubMed Central

    Limongi, Roberto; Pérez, Francisco J.; Modroño, Cristián; González-Mora, José L.

    2016-01-01

    Action update, substituting a prepotent behavior with a new action, allows the organism to counteract surprising environmental demands. However, action update fails when the organism is uncertain about when to release the substituting behavior, when it faces temporal uncertainty. Predictive coding states that accurate perception demands minimization of precise prediction errors. Activity of the right anterior insula (rAI) is associated with temporal uncertainty. Therefore, we hypothesize that temporal uncertainty during action update would cause the AI to decrease the sensitivity to ascending prediction errors. Moreover, action update requires response inhibition which recruits the frontostriatal indirect pathway associated with motor control. Therefore, we also hypothesize that temporal estimation errors modulate frontostriatal connections. To test these hypotheses, we collected fMRI data when participants performed an action-update paradigm within the context of temporal estimation. We fit dynamic causal models to the imaging data. Competing models comprised the inferior occipital gyrus (IOG), right supramarginal gyrus (rSMG), rAI, right presupplementary motor area (rPreSMA), and the right striatum (rSTR). The winning model showed that temporal uncertainty drove activity into the rAI and decreased insular sensitivity to ascending prediction errors, as shown by weak connectivity strength of rSMG→rAI connections. Moreover, temporal estimation errors weakened rPreSMA→rSTR connections and also modulated rAI→rSTR connections, causing the disruption of action update. Results provide information about the neurophysiological implementation of the so-called horse-race model of action control. We suggest that, contrary to what might be believed, unsuccessful action update could be a homeostatic process that represents a Bayes optimal encoding of uncertainty. PMID:27445737

  3. Evaluation of Factors Affecting Collection Efficiency Estimates of Chinook Salmon and Steelhead Smolts at McNary Dam. 1988 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Stuehrenberg, Lowell; Johnson, Orlay W.

    1990-03-01

    During 1988, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) began a 2-year study to address possible sources of error in determining collection efficiency at McNary Dam. We addressed four objectives: determine whether fish from Columbia and Snake Rivers mix as they migrate to McNary Dam, determine whether Columbia and Snake River stocks are collected at the same rates assess whether the time of day fish are released influences their recovery rate, and determine whether guided fish used in collection efficiency estimates ten to bias results. 7 refs., 12 figs., 4 tabs.

  4. Some factors affecting the use of lighter than air systems. [economic and performance estimates for dirigibles and semi-buoyant hybrid vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Havill, C. D.

    1974-01-01

    The uses of lighter-than-air vehicles are examined in the present day transportation environment. Conventional dirigibles were found to indicate an undesirable economic risk due to their low speeds and to uncertainties concerning their operational use. Semi-buoyant hybrid vehicles are suggested as an alternative which does not have many of the inferior characteristics of conventional dirigibles. Economic and performance estimates for hybrid vehicles indicate that they are competitive with other transportation systems in many applications, and unique in their ability to perform some highly desirable emergency missions.

  5. A Systematic Review of the Prevalence of Schizophrenia

    PubMed Central

    2005-01-01

    Background Understanding the prevalence of schizophrenia has important implications for both health service planning and risk factor epidemiology. The aims of this review are to systematically identify and collate studies describing the prevalence of schizophrenia, to summarize the findings of these studies, and to explore selected factors that may influence prevalence estimates. Methods and Findings Studies with original data related to the prevalence of schizophrenia (published 1965–2002) were identified via searching electronic databases, reviewing citations, and writing to authors. These studies were divided into “core” studies, “migrant” studies, and studies based on “other special groups.” Between- and within-study filters were applied in order to identify discrete prevalence estimates. Cumulative plots of prevalence estimates were made and the distributions described when the underlying estimates were sorted according to prevalence type (point, period, lifetime, and lifetime morbid risk). Based on combined prevalence estimates, the influence of selected key variables was examined (sex, urbanicity, migrant status, country economic index, and study quality). A total of 1,721 prevalence estimates from 188 studies were identified. These estimates were drawn from 46 countries, and were based on an estimated 154,140 potentially overlapping prevalent cases. We identified 132 core studies, 15 migrant studies, and 41 studies based on other special groups. The median values per 1,000 persons (10%–90% quantiles) for the distributions for point, period, lifetime, and lifetime morbid risk were 4.6 (1.9–10.0), 3.3 (1.3–8.2), 4.0 (1.6–12.1), and 7.2 (3.1–27.1), respectively. Based on combined prevalence estimates, we found no significant difference (a) between males and females, or (b) between urban, rural, and mixed sites. The prevalence of schizophrenia in migrants was higher compared to native-born individuals: the migrant-to-native-born ratio

  6. Estimating environmental conditions affecting protozoal pathogen removal in surface water wetland systems using a multi-scale, model-based approach.

    PubMed

    Daniels, Miles E; Hogan, Jennifer; Smith, Woutrina A; Oates, Stori C; Miller, Melissa A; Hardin, Dane; Shapiro, Karen; Los Huertos, Marc; Conrad, Patricia A; Dominik, Clare; Watson, Fred G R

    2014-09-15

    Cryptosporidium parvum, Giardia lamblia, and Toxoplasma gondii are waterborne protozoal pathogens distributed worldwide and empirical evidence suggests that wetlands reduce the concentrations of these pathogens under certain environmental conditions. The goal of this study was to evaluate how protozoal removal in surface water is affected by the water temperature, turbidity, salinity, and vegetation cover of wetlands in the Monterey Bay region of California. To examine how protozoal removal was affected by these environmental factors, we conducted observational experiments at three primary spatial scales: settling columns, recirculating wetland mesocosm tanks, and an experimental research wetland (Molera Wetland). Simultaneously, we developed a protozoal transport model for surface water to simulate the settling columns, the mesocosm tanks, and the Molera Wetland. With a high degree of uncertainty expected in the model predictions and field observations, we developed the model within a Bayesian statistical framework. We found protozoal removal increased when water flowed through vegetation, and with higher levels of turbidity, salinity, and temperature. Protozoal removal in surface water was maximized (~0.1 hour(-1)) when flowing through emergent vegetation at 2% cover, and with a vegetation contact time of ~30 minutes compared to the effects of temperature, salinity, and turbidity. Our studies revealed that an increase in vegetated wetland area, with water moving through vegetation, would likely improve regional water quality through the reduction of fecal protozoal pathogen loads.

  7. The prevalence of food hypersensitivity in an unselected population of children and adults.

    PubMed

    Osterballe, M; Hansen, T K; Mortz, C G; Høst, A; Bindslev-Jensen, C

    2005-11-01

    A rising prevalence of food hypersensitivity (FHS) and severe allergic reactions to food has been reported the last decade. To estimate the prevalence of FHS to the most common allergenic foods in an unselected population of children and adults. We investigated a cohort of 111 children <3 yr of age, 486 children 3 yr of age, 301 children older than 3 yr of age and 936 adults by questionnaire, skin prick test, histamine release test and specific immunoglobulin E followed by oral challenge to the most common allergenic foods. In total, 698 cases of possible FHS were recorded in 304 (16.6%) participants. The prevalence of FHS confirmed by oral challenge was 2.3% in the children 3 yr of age, 1% in children older than 3 yr of age and 3.2% in adults. The most common allergenic foods were hen's egg affecting 1.6% of the children 3 yr of age and peanut in 0.4% of the adults. Of the adults, 0.2% was allergic to codfish and 0.3% to shrimp, whereas no challenges with codfish and shrimp were positive in the children. The prevalence of clinical reactions to pollen-related foods in pollen-sensitized adults was estimated to 32%. This study demonstrates the prevalence of FHS confirmed by oral challenge to the most common allergenic foods in an unselected population of children and adults.

  8. Epilepsy in Canada: Prevalence and impact.

    PubMed

    Gilmour, Heather; Ramage-Morin, Pamela; Wong, Suzy L

    2016-09-21

    This article provides information about the prevalence and impact of epilepsy, based on the 2010 and 2011 Canadian Community Health Surveys, the 2011/2012 Survey of Neurological Conditions in Institutions in Canada, and the 2011 Survey on Living with Neurological Conditions in Canada. An estimated 139,200 Canadians had epilepsy. Among the household population, epilepsy was generally diagnosed before age 30 (75%). For the majority of these people (64%), epilepsy was their only neurological condition. People with epilepsy were more than twice as likely to have been diagnosed with a mood disorder, compared with the general population (17% versus 7%), and eight times as likely to experience incontinence (34% versus 4%). Overall, an estimated 18% reported that their life was affected quite a bit or extremely by epilepsy; 44% felt that their life was impacted a little bit or moderately; and 39% felt that their life was not impacted at all. This study examined the impact of epilepsy on interactions with others, sleep, driving, education, and employment. PMID:27655169

  9. How a new uncertainty estimate of global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel consumption affects our understanding of the source/sink nature of the terrestrial biosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andres, R. J.; Boden, T.

    2012-12-01

    A new evaluation of the uncertainty associated with the global total of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel consumption and cement production is based on approaching the emissions estimates from a different perspective than the approach used by Marland and Rotty (1984, Tellus 36B: 232-261). This new evaluation is based on quantifying the qualitative national error classes shown in Andres et al. (1996, GBC 10:419-429) and assuming that the energy data for each nation are independent of each other nation's data. Global total emissions for the years 1950 to 2011 are calculated from the sum of emissions from individual nations plus an additional term which accounts for emissions not included in national totals (e.g., bunker fuels, Andres et al., 2012, Biogeosci. 9:1845-1871). The uncertainty on this global total is then calculated from square root(Σ((emissions*uncertainty)^2)) where the summation is done over all nations. The result of this calculation is the uncertainty expressed in terms of mass in a given year. Calculations are now underway for the 1950-2011 time series. Based on previous calculations, for the years 1950 to 2010, the 2 σ uncertainty on global fossil fuel emissions was 2.6 to 4.8% (41 Tg C in 1950 and 415 Tg C in 2010, respectively). To examine one implication of this new uncertainty estimate, it is propagated into the rest of the global carbon cycle via a five-component box model. For simplicity, this uncertainty is accommodated entirely within the terrestrial biosphere. We conclude that for most years since 1950, the propagated uncertainty results in a terrestrial biosphere that may have acted as either a source or sink of carbon.

  10. Autism spectrum disorder prevalence and proximity to industrial facilities releasing arsenic, lead or mercury.

    PubMed

    Dickerson, Aisha S; Rahbar, Mohammad H; Han, Inkyu; Bakian, Amanda V; Bilder, Deborah A; Harrington, Rebecca A; Pettygrove, Sydney; Durkin, Maureen; Kirby, Russell S; Wingate, Martha Slay; Tian, Lin Hui; Zahorodny, Walter M; Pearson, Deborah A; Moyé, Lemuel A; Baio, Jon

    2015-12-01

    Prenatal and perinatal exposures to air pollutants have been shown to adversely affect birth outcomes in offspring and may contribute to prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). For this ecologic study, we evaluated the association between ASD prevalence, at the census tract level, and proximity of tract centroids to the closest industrial facilities releasing arsenic, lead or mercury during the 1990s. We used 2000 to 2008 surveillance data from five sites of the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) network and 2000 census data to estimate prevalence. Multi-level negative binomial regression models were used to test associations between ASD prevalence and proximity to industrial facilities in existence from 1991 to 1999 according to the US Environmental Protection Agency Toxics Release Inventory (USEPA-TRI). Data for 2489 census tracts showed that after adjustment for demographic and socio-economic area-based characteristics, ASD prevalence was higher in census tracts located in the closest 10th percentile compared of distance to those in the furthest 50th percentile (adjusted RR=1.27, 95% CI: (1.00, 1.61), P=0.049). The findings observed in this study are suggestive of the association between urban residential proximity to industrial facilities emitting air pollutants and higher ASD prevalence.

  11. Estimation of the most influential factors on the laser cutting process heat affected zone (HAZ) by adaptive neuro-fuzzy technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petković, Dalibor; Nikolić, Vlastimir; Milovančević, Miloš; Lazov, Lyubomir

    2016-07-01

    Heat affected zone (HAZ) of the laser cutting process may be developed on the basis on combination of different factors. In this investigation was analyzed the HAZ forecasting based on the different laser cutting parameters. The main aim in this article was to analyze the influence of three inputs on the HAZ of the laser cutting process. The method of ANFIS (adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system) was applied to the data in order to select the most influential factors for HAZ forecasting. Three inputs are considered: laser power, cutting speed and gas pressure. According the results the cutting speed has the highest influence on the HAZ forecasting (RMSE: 0.0553). Gas pressure has the smallest influence on the HAZ forecasting (RMSE: 0.0801). The results can be used in order to simplify HAZ prediction and analyzing.

  12. Estimates of Cigarette Smoking From the NJ Adult Tobacco Survey: Real or Spurious?

    PubMed Central

    Delnevo, Cristine D.; Gundersen, Daniel A.; Hrywna, Mary; Wackowski, Olivia; ZuWallack, Randal S.

    2014-01-01

    Objective To explore, post hoc, whether a large decline in smoking estimates between the 2005 and 2006 New Jersey Adult Tobacco Surveys is real or spurious given various methodological and environmental changes between the 2 time periods of data collection. Methods Using multiple data sources, we explored survey timing, poststratification approach, midinterview terminations, wireless substitution, and question order. Results Changes in question order were likely responsible for the majority of the unexpected decline in smoking prevalence; to a lesser degree, wireless substitution and midinterview terminations also likely contributed to an artificially exaggerated decline. Conclusion Methodological changes can artificially affect trends in prevalence estimates. PMID:20524888

  13. Prevalence and risk factors for bacterial food-borne zoonotic hazards in slaughter pigs: a review.

    PubMed

    Fosse, J; Seegers, H; Magras, C

    2009-10-01

    The Hygiene Package and Regulation EC-2160/2003 require information flow from farm to slaughterhouse to enhance European consumers protection in a 'farm to fork' approach. This obligation especially concerns food-borne zoonotic hazards transmitted to humans through pork consumption, such as thermophilic Campylobacter spp., Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella enterica and Yersinia enterocolitica. Prevalence estimates of these four hazards are affected by the sampling strategy and diagnostic procedure. Individual prevalence estimates for pig carriage (from digestive contents or lymph nodes collected at slaughterhouse) were higher than individual prevalence estimates for pig shedding (from faeces). Among risk factors described in the literature, poor pen cleaning and disinfection after pig departure to slaughterhouse and poor bio-security measures are of major significance. Moreover, whereas wet feed increases the risk of pig infection by L. monocytogenes, dry feed is a risk factor for Salm. enterica. Mixing batches of pigs, notably in fattening herds, represents a risk for the transmission of Salm. enterica and Y. enterocolitica. Whereas small herds are more infected by thermophilic campylobacters and Y. enterocolitica, higher prevalence of Salmonella is observed in large herds due to a more frequent mixing of batches. Antibiotic treatment during the finishing period increases the risk of transmission of Salm. enterica. The forenamed elements should be taken into account to characterize farms in a risk assessment approach and to improve zoonotic hazard management in the pork food chain.

  14. Prevalence of Chiari I Malformation and Syringomyelia.

    PubMed

    Kahn, Elyne N; Muraszko, Karin M; Maher, Cormac O

    2015-10-01

    Chiari I malformation (CM) is a common neurosurgical diagnosis and spinal cord syrinx is frequently found in patients with CM. Asymptomatic CM is a common imaging finding. Symptomatic CM is less common. Variation in prevalence estimates may be attributed to differences in sensitivity of CM detection between studies as well as differences in the populations being analyzed. The prevalence of low tonsil position and CM on MRI is higher in children and young adults compared with older adults. Studies that include a large number of older adults find a lower prevalence compared with analyses of children.

  15. Estimates of subprimal yields from beef carcasses as affected by USDA grades, subcutaneous fat trim level, and carcass sex class and type.

    PubMed

    Griffin, D B; Savell, J W; Morgan, J B; Garrett, R P; Cross, H R

    1992-08-01

    One hundred beef carcasses were selected to represent the mix of cattle slaughtered across the United States. Selection criteria included breed type (60% British/continental European, 20% Bos indicus, and 20% dairy carcasses), sex class (beef and Bos indicus: 67% steers, 33% heifers; dairy: 100% steers), USDA quality grade (4% Prime, 53% Choice, and 43% Select), USDA yield grade (10% YG 1, 43% YG 2, 40% YG 3, and 7% YG 4), and carcass weight (steers: 272.2 to 385.6 kg, heifers: 226.8 to 340.2 kg). One side of each carcass was fabricated into boneless subprimals and minor cuts following Institutional Meat Purchase Specifications. After fabrication, subprimals were trimmed progressively of fat in .64-cm increments beginning with a maximum of 2.54 cm and ending with .64 cm. Linear regression models were developed for each individual cut, including fabrication byproduct items (bone, fat trim) to estimate the percentage yield of those cuts reported by USDA Market News. Strip loin, top sirloin butt, and gooseneck rounds from heifers tended to have a higher percentage yield at the same USDA yield grade than the same cuts from steers, possibly resulting from increased fat deposition on heifers. Percentage of fat trimmed from dairy steers was 2 to 3% lower than that from other sex-class/carcass types; however, due to increased percentage of bone and less muscle, dairy steers were lower-yielding. Fat trimmed from carcasses ranged from 7.9 to 15.6% as the maximum trim level decreased from 2.54 to .64 cm.

  16. Prevalence and predictors of adult hypertension in Kabul, Afghanistan

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The prevalence of hypertension is rising worldwide with an estimated one billion people now affected globally and is of near epidemic proportions in many parts of South Asia. Recent turmoil has until recently precluded estimates in Afghanistan so we sought, therefore, to establish both prevalence predictors in our population. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study of adults ≥40 years of age in Kabul from December 2011-March 2012 using a multistage sampling method. Additional data on socioeconomic and lifestyle factors were collected as well as an estimate of glycaemic control. Bivariate and multivariable analyses were undertaken to explore the association between hypertension and potential predictors. Results A total of 1183 adults (men 396, women 787) of ≥ 40years of age were assessed. The prevalence of hypertension was 46.2% (95% CI 43.5 – 49.3). Independent predictors of hypertension were found to be: age ≥50 (OR = 3.86, 95% CI: 2.86 – 5.21); illiteracy (OR = 1.90, 1.05 – 1.90); the consumption of rice >3 times per week (OR = 1.43, 1.07 – 1.91); family history of diabetes (OR = 2.20, 1.30 – 3.75); central obesity (OR = 1.67, 1.23 – 2.27); BMI ≥ 30 Kg/meter squared (OR = 2.08, 1.50 – 2.89). The consumption of chicken and fruit more than three times per week were protective with ORs respectively of 0.73 (0.55-0.97) and 0.64 (0.47 – 0.86). Conclusions Hypertension is a major public health problem in Afghan adults. We have identified a number of predictors which have potential for guiding interventions. PMID:24754870

  17. Subject Positioning in the BOD POD® Only Marginally Affects Measurement of Body Volume and Estimation of Percent Body Fat in Young Adult Men

    PubMed Central

    Peeters, Maarten W.

    2012-01-01

    Introduction The aim of the study was to evaluate whether subject positioning would affect the measurement of raw body volume, thoracic gas volume, corrected body volume and the resulting percent body fat as assessed by air displacement plethysmography (ADP). Methods Twenty-five young adult men (20.7±1.1y, BMI = 22.5±1.4 kg/m2) were measured using the BOD POD® system using a measured thoracic gas volume sitting in a ‘forward bent’ position and sitting up in a straight position in random order. Results Raw body volume was 58±124 ml (p<0.05) higher in the ‘straight’ position compared to the ‘bent’ position. The mean difference in measured thoracic gas volume (bent-straight = −71±211 ml) was not statistically significant. Corrected body volume and percent body fat in the bent position consequently were on average 86±122 ml (p<0.05) and 0.5±0.7% (p<0.05) lower than in the straight position respectively. Conclusion Although the differences reached statistical significance, absolute differences are rather small. Subject positioning should be viewed as a factor that may contribute to between-test variability and hence contribute to (in)precision in detecting small individual changes in body composition, rather than a potential source of systematic bias. It therefore may be advisable to pay attention to standardizing subject positioning when tracking small changes in PF are of interest.The cause of the differences is shown not to be related to changes in the volume of isothermal air in the lungs. It is hypothesized and calculated that the observed direction and magnitude of these differences may arise from the surface area artifact which does not take into account that a subject in the bent position exposes more skin to the air in the device therefore potentially creating a larger underestimation of the actual body volume due to the isothermal effect of air close to the skin. PMID:22461887

  18. Prevalence of skin neoplasma amont the atomic bomb survivors

    SciTech Connect

    Yamada, Michiko; Kodama, Kazunori; Akahoshi, Masazumi

    1996-08-01

    About 7,000 atomic bomb (A-bomb) survivors from Hiroshima and Nagasaki who participate in the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) Adult Health Study (AHS) were examined to define the relationship between skin neoplasms and exposure to ionizing radiation. Careful clinical inspection of the skin was undertaken to detect not only skin cancer but precancerous lesions such as senile keratosis. Five cases of basal cell carcinoma, five cases of senile keratosis and one case of Bowen`s disease were confirmed histologically among 5955 A-bomb survivors for whom Dosimetry System 1986 (DS86) dose estimates are available. The relationship between the combined prevalence of skin cancer and precancerous lesions and DS86 dose was examined together with other factors that might affect skin neoplasms including occupational exposure to ultraviolet (UV) rays, age, sex and city. The prevalence of basal cell carcinoma and senile keratosis increased as the DS86 dose increased. The prevalent of skin cancer and senile keratosis among persons engaged in work involving frequent exposure to UV rays was higher than among those who were not engaged in such work. Sex and city were not significantly related to those skin diseases. Odds ratios of skin neoplasm for a 1-Gy dose, occupational exposure to UV rays and age at time of examination exposure to UV rays and age at time of examination (in 10-year increments) are 1.7, 5.9 and 1.9, respectively. 22 refs., 3 tabs.

  19. High Prevalence of Obesity in Ambulatory Children and Adolescents with Intellectual Disability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stewart, L.; Van de Ven, L.; Katsarou, V.; Rentziou, E.; Doran, M.; Jackson, P.; Reilly, J. J.; Wilson, D.

    2009-01-01

    Background: Obesity prevalence is unusually high among adults with intellectual disability (ID). There is limited and conflicting evidence on obesity prevalence among ambulatory children and adolescents with ID. The present study aimed to estimate obesity prevalence in this group and to compare with population prevalence. Methods: Survey of nine…

  20. [Pedophilia. Prevalence, etiology, and diagnostics].

    PubMed

    Mokros, A; Osterheider, M; Nitschke, J

    2012-03-01

    Pedophilia is a disorder of sexual preference that increases the risk for committing sexual offenses against children. Consequently, pedophilia is not only relevant in psychiatric therapy and prognostics, but also greatly influences the public attitude towards criminality. Public opinion seems to equate pedophilia with child sexual abuse and vice versa which leads to stigmatization of patients and may impede treatment. The present paper provides information on recent studies on the potential origins of the disorder and introduces new diagnostic methods. Moreover, the article presents estimates on the prevalence of pedophilic sexual interest.

  1. Prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis in low– and middle–income countries: A systematic review and analysis

    PubMed Central

    Rudan, Igor; Sidhu, Simrita; Papana, Angeliki; Meng, Shi–Jiao; Xin–Wei, Yu; Wang, Wei; Campbell–Page, Ruth M.; Demaio, Alessandro Rhyll; Nair, Harish; Sridhar, Devi; Theodoratou, Evropi; Dowman, Ben; Adeloye, Davies; Majeed, Azeem; Car, Josip; Campbell, Harry; Wang, Wei; Chan, Kit Yee

    2015-01-01

    Background Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is an autoimmune disorder that affects the small joints of the body. It is one of the leading causes of chronic morbidity in high–income countries, but little is known about the burden of this disease in low– and middle–income countries (LMIC). Methods The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of RA in six of the World Health Organization's (WHO) regions that harbour LMIC by identifying all relevant studies in those regions. To accomplish this aim various bibliographic databases were searched: PubMed, EMBASE, Global Health, LILACS and the Chinese databases CNKI and WanFang. Studies were selected based on pre–defined inclusion criteria, including a definition of RA based on the 1987 revision of the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) definition. Results Meta–estimates of regional RA prevalence rates for countries of low or middle income were 0.40% (95% CI: 0.23–0.57%) for Southeast Asian, 0.37% (95% CI: 0.23–0.51%) for Eastern Mediterranean, 0.62% (95% CI: 0.47–0.77%) for European, 1.25% (95% CI: 0.64–1.86%) for American and 0.42% (95% CI: 0.30–0.53%) for Western Pacific regions. A formal meta–analysis could not be performed for the sub–Saharan African region due to limited data. Male prevalence of RA in LMIC was 0.16% (95% CI: 0.11–0.20%) while the prevalence in women reached 0.75% (95% CI: 0.60–0.90%). This difference between males and females was statistically significant (P < 0.0001). The prevalence of RA did not differ significantly between urban and rural settings (P = 0.353). These prevalence estimates represent 2.60 (95% CI: 1.85–3.34%) million male sufferers and 12.21 (95% CI: 9.78–14.67%) million female sufferers in LMIC in the year 2000, and 3.16 (95% CI: 2.25–4.05%) million affected males and 14.87 (95% CI: 11.91–17.86%) million affected females in LMIC in the year 2010. Conclusion Given that majority of the world’s population resides in LMIC, the number of

  2. Prevalence of Disorders Recorded in Dogs Attending Primary-Care Veterinary Practices in England

    PubMed Central

    O′Neill, Dan G.; Church, David B.; McGreevy, Paul D.; Thomson, Peter C.; Brodbelt, Dave C.

    2014-01-01

    Purebred dog health is thought to be compromised by an increasing occurence of inherited diseases but inadequate prevalence data on common disorders have hampered efforts to prioritise health reforms. Analysis of primary veterinary practice clinical data has been proposed for reliable estimation of disorder prevalence in dogs. Electronic patient record (EPR) data were collected on 148,741 dogs attending 93 clinics across central and south-eastern England. Analysis in detail of a random sample of EPRs relating to 3,884 dogs from 89 clinics identified the most frequently recorded disorders as otitis externa (prevalence 10.2%, 95% CI: 9.1–11.3), periodontal disease (9.3%, 95% CI: 8.3–10.3) and anal sac impaction (7.1%, 95% CI: 6.1–8.1). Using syndromic classification, the most prevalent body location affected was the head-and-neck (32.8%, 95% CI: 30.7–34.9), the most prevalent organ system affected was the integument (36.3%, 95% CI: 33.9–38.6) and the most prevalent pathophysiologic process diagnosed was inflammation (32.1%, 95% CI: 29.8–34.3). Among the twenty most-frequently recorded disorders, purebred dogs had a significantly higher prevalence compared with crossbreds for three: otitis externa (P = 0.001), obesity (P = 0.006) and skin mass lesion (P = 0.033), and popular breeds differed significantly from each other in their prevalence for five: periodontal disease (P = 0.002), overgrown nails (P = 0.004), degenerative joint disease (P = 0.005), obesity (P = 0.001) and lipoma (P = 0.003). These results fill a crucial data gap in disorder prevalence information and assist with disorder prioritisation. The results suggest that, for maximal impact, breeding reforms should target commonly-diagnosed complex disorders that are amenable to genetic improvement and should place special focus on at-risk breeds. Future studies evaluating disorder severity and duration will augment the usefulness of the disorder prevalence

  3. Understanding the relationship between prevalence of microfilariae and antigenaemia using a model of lymphatic filariasis infection

    PubMed Central

    Irvine, Michael A.; Njenga, Sammy M.; Gunawardena, Shamini; Njeri Wamae, Claire; Cano, Jorge; Brooker, Simon J.; Deirdre Hollingsworth, T.

    2016-01-01

    Background Lymphatic filariasis is a debilitating neglected tropical disease that affects impoverished communities. Rapid diagnostic tests of antigenaemia are a practical alternative to parasitological tests of microfilaraemia for mapping and surveillance. However the relationship between these two methods of measuring burden has previously been difficult to interpret. Methods A statistical model of the distribution of worm burden and microfilariae (mf) and resulting antigenaemic and mf prevalence was developed and fitted to surveys of two contrasting sentinel sites undergoing interventions. The fitted model was then used to explore the relationship in various pre- and post-intervention scenarios. Results The model had good quantitative agreement with the data and provided estimates of the reduction in mf output due to treatment. When extrapolating the results to a range of prevalences there was good qualitative agreement with published data. Conclusions The observed relationship between antigenamic and mf prevalence is a natural consequence of the relationship between prevalence and intensity of adult worms and mf production. The method described here allows the estimation of key epidemiological parameters and consequently gives insight into the efficacy of an intervention programme. PMID:26822604

  4. Prevalence of malnutrition in Kenya.

    PubMed

    Ngare, D K; Muttunga, J N

    1999-07-01

    This cross-sectional study examined the prevalence, severity, regional differences and age-sex distribution of malnutrition in Kenya. About 6419 children (3294 males and 3125 females) from 14 districts in Kenya were examined using two anthropometric measurements: weight and height. The three nutritional status indicators used were stunting, wasting, and underweight, with an overall prevalence of 36%, 6%, and 27%, respectively. Findings indicated that stunting was lowest among the 6-12 month age group and highest among the 12-23 month age group, with a prevalence 15 times higher among boys. On the other hand, both growth stunting and wasting were most serious between 12 and 23 months of age, similar to previous reports. The most pressing form of malnutrition in Kenya is protein-energy malnutrition, which largely affects infants, preschool, and school children. Regional disparities in malnutrition were also observed, with a low malnutrition rate in Kiambu (22.6%) and a high malnutrition rate in Kwale (56.5%) districts. This study, as well as the results of previous findings, confirms the seriousness of malnutrition in Kenya. This paper suggests the implementation and development of monitoring and evaluation mechanisms to assess the impact of implemented program activities, particularly in districts with high malnutrition rates.

  5. Developmental dyscalculia: prevalence and prognosis.

    PubMed

    Shalev, R S; Auerbach, J; Manor, O; Gross-Tsur, V

    2000-01-01

    The prevalence of developmental dyscalculia (DC) in the school population ranges from 3-6 %, a frequency similar to that of developmental dyslexia and ADHD. These studies fulfilled the criteria for an adequate prevalence study, i.e., were population based, using standardized measures to evaluate arithmetic function. Although the variation in prevalence is within a narrow range, the differences are probably due to which definition of dyscalculia was used, the age the diagnosis was made and the instrument chosen to test for DC. The relative predominance of girls with DC may reflect a greater vulnerability to environmental influences alone or in addition to a biological predisposition. DC is not only encountered as a specific learning disability but also in diverse neurological disorders, examples of which include ADHD, developmental language disorder, epilepsy, treated phenylketonuria and Fragile X syndrome. Although the long-term prognosis of DC is as yet unknown, current data indicate that DC is a stable learning disability persisting, at least for the short term, in about half of affected children. The long-term consequences of DC and its impact on education, employment and psychological well-being have yet to be determined. PMID:11138905

  6. Munchausen syndrome by proxy: diagnosis and prevalence.

    PubMed

    Schreier, H A; Libow, J A

    1993-04-01

    A review of the literature and a survey of pediatric neurologists and gastroenterologists yield data indicating that the prevalence of Munchausen syndrome by proxy is greater than is generally estimated. This possibility is further supported by follow-up data on siblings of victims, together with wide variability among practitioners in case identification.

  7. [Changing the order of questions on drug use in the Swiss Health Survey--does it effect prevalence assessment?].

    PubMed

    Gmel, G

    1999-01-01

    A split-sample study investigated whether changes in the order of questions about the use of several medicines and remedies affected the estimation of prevalence of their use. In October 1996 the two versions of the questionnaires used for the First and Second Swiss Health Surveys were assigned respectively to two random samples (N1 = 537; N2 = 457). The general aim of the study was to investigate the comparability of the two questionnaire versions with regard to future analyses of trends. As assumed by the inclusion/exclusion model it was postulated that questionnaire changes in the order in which items on medicines and remedies were placed produced a contrast effect. A contrast effect would be a reduction in the estimation of the prevalence of use of those groups of medicines that followed remedies. The study found that question order produced no, or only small, effects on estimation of prevalence of use for purposes of future trend analysis. For eight groups of medicines the different questionnaire versions resulted in no significant differences (p > 0.05) in the prevalence of use. Effects on estimation of prevalence, however, must be expected according to whether a skip question about the use of medicines in general precedes the questions on specific medicines. As a tendency, the version without a skip question yielded a higher prevalence of daily use of tonics and fortifiers (4.8% versus 7.4%; p < 0.10). The difference (9.9% with a skip question versus 15.1% without) was significant (p < 0.05) for daily use of vitamins.

  8. Prevalence and Consequences of the Proximal Junctional Kyphosis After Spinal Deformity Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Yan, Chunda; Li, Yong; Yu, Zhange

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence and patient outcomes of proximal junctional kyphosis (PJK) in pediatric patients and adolescents who received surgical interventions for the treatment of a spinal deformity. Literature was searched in electronic databases, and studies were selected by following précised eligibility criteria. Percent prevalence values of the PJK in individual studies were pooled to achieve a weighted effect size under the random effects model. Subgroup and meta-regression analyses were performed to appraise the factors affecting PJK prevalence. Twenty-six studies (2024 patients) were included in this meta-analysis. Average age of the patients was 13.8 ± 2.75 years of which 32 ± 20 % were males. Average follow-up was 51.6 ± 38.8 (range 17 ± 13 to 218 ± 60) months. Overall, the percent prevalence of PJK (95% confidence interval) was 11.02 (10.5, 11.5) %; P < 0.00001 which was inversely associated with age (meta-regression coefficient: –1.607 [–2.86, –0.36]; 0.014). Revision surgery rate in the patients with PJK was 10%. The prevalence of PJK was positively associated with the proximal junctional angle at last follow-up (coefficient: 2.248; P = 0.012) and the change in the proximal junctional angle from surgery to last follow-up (coefficient: 2.139; P = 0.014) but not with preoperative proximal junctional angle. The prevalence of PJK in the children and adolescent patients is 11%. About 10% of those affected require revision surgery. PMID:27196453

  9. Prevalence of diabetes in a Navajo Indian community.

    PubMed

    Sugarman, J; Percy, C

    1989-04-01

    The age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) of 494 (76 per cent) Navajo adults living in a reservation community was 10.2 per cent, approximately 60 per cent greater than the estimated prevalence (6.4 per cent) in the general US population. The screening protocol utilized likely underestimates the prevalence of NIDDM in this population. A high proportion of Navajo people were overweight when compared to the general US population. PMID:2929818

  10. Insomnia: definition an prevalence in the elderly.

    PubMed

    Dornberger, Sherrie

    2008-01-01

    There is a high prevalence of insomnia in the long-term care setting. This condition needs to be addressed because insomnia affects the quality of life of the resident. It is important for practitioners to differentiate between primary and secondary insomnia so the proper treatment can be given to residents.

  11. Obesity Prevalence Maps

    MedlinePlus

    ... Physical Activity Overweight & Obesity Healthy Weight Breastfeeding Micronutrient Malnutrition State and Local Programs Adult Obesity Prevalence Maps ... Physical Activity Overweight & Obesity Healthy Weight Breastfeeding Micronutrient Malnutrition State and Local Programs File Formats Help: How ...

  12. [Prevalence of ocular lesions in children seropositive to Toxocara canis].

    PubMed

    Sánchez T, Juan E; López G, Juan P; González N, Militza; Villaseca D, Eduardo; Manieu M, Denise; Roizen B, Alejandra; Noemí H, Isabel; Viovy A, Alejandro

    2011-10-01

    Intraocular invasion by Toxocara canis is one of the most commonly recognized etiologies of uveitis and blindness in children. In order to estimate the prevalence of ocular lesions caused by toxocariasis in a pediatric referral hospital, we conducted a retrospective analysis of clinical charts of all children seropositive to Toxocara canis, who also had an eye exam between the years 2005 and 2009 at the Calvo Mackenna Children's Hospital in Santiago, Chile. We identified 175 children [mean age 6 years (range 0.66-15)] seropositive to Toxocara canis, who had dilated eye exam. Only one child [(0.57%); 95% CI, -0.55 - 1.69] had ophthalmoscopic findings compatible with Toxocara canis infection. The patient also suffered from decreased vision of the affected eye. The information gained from this study may be of useful for the implementation of algorithms for the ophthalmological examination of children seropositive to Toxocara canis in public hospitals in Chile. PMID:22051620

  13. The Prevalence of Sexual Abuse among Adolescents in School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Saewyc, Elizabeth M.; Pettingell, Sandra; Magee, Lara L.

    2003-01-01

    Sexual abuse is a profound stressor that complicates the development and health of adolescents, yet its prevalence has been difficult to estimate among adolescents in school populations. This study explored the prevalence of both incest and nonfamily abuse in 2 cohorts of adolescents in Minnesota in the 1990s (1992: N = 77,374; 1998: N = 81,247).…

  14. [Prevalence and aetiopathogenesis of neuropathic pain in elderly cancer patients].

    PubMed

    Cabezón-Gutiérrez, Luis; Custodio-Cabello, Sara; Khosravi-Shahi, Parham

    2016-01-01

    The prevalence of neuropathic pain is difficult to estimate as most studies evaluating chronic pain do not differentiate neuropathic from nociceptive pain. There are only a few studies of neuropathic pain in the elderly, specifically in the oncology population. This article is a non-systematic review of the relevant evidence on the prevalence and aetiopathogenesis of neuropathic cancer pain in the elderly.

  15. Prevalence of Titin Truncating Variants in General Population

    PubMed Central

    Akinrinade, Oyediran; Koskenvuo, Juha W.; Alastalo, Tero-Pekka

    2015-01-01

    Background Truncating titin (TTN) mutations, especially in A-band region, represent the most common cause of dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). Clinical interpretation of these variants can be challenging, as these variants are also present in reference populations. We carried out systematic analyses of TTN truncating variants (TTNtv) in publicly available reference populations, including, for the first time, data from Exome Aggregation Consortium (ExAC). The goal was to establish more accurate estimate of prevalence of different TTNtv to allow better clinical interpretation of these findings. Methods and Results Using data from 1000 Genomes Project, Exome Sequencing Project (ESP) and ExAC, we estimated the prevalence of TTNtv in the population. In the three population datasets, 52–54% of TTNtv were not affecting all TTN transcripts. The frequency of truncations affecting all transcripts in ExAC was 0.36% (0.32% - 0.41%, 95% CI) and 0.19% (0.16% - 0.23%, 95% CI) for those affecting the A-band. In the A-band region, the prevalences of frameshift, nonsense and essential splice site variants were 0.057%, 0.090%, and 0.047% respectively. Cga/Tga (arginine/nonsense–R/*) transitional change at CpG mutation hotspots was the most frequent type of TTN nonsense mutation accounting for 91.3% (21/23) of arginine residue nonsense mutation (R/*) at TTN A-band region. Non-essential splice-site variants had significantly lower proportion of private variants and higher proportion of low-frequency variants compared to essential splice-site variants (P = 0.01; P = 5.1 X 10−4, respectively). Conclusion A-band TTNtv are more rare in the general population than previously reported. Based on this analysis, one in 500 carries a truncation in TTN A-band suggesting the penetrance of these potentially harmful variants is still poorly understood, and some of these variants do not manifest as autosomal dominant DCM. This calls for caution when interpreting TTNtv in individuals and families

  16. Incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Europe: a systematic review

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the most common cause of neurological disability in young adults worldwide and approximately half of those affected are in Europe. The assessment of differential incidence and prevalence across populations can reveal spatial, temporal and demographic patterns which are important for identifying genetic and environmental factors contributing to MS. However, study methodologies vary and the quality of the methods can influence the estimates. This study aimed to systematically review European studies of incidence and prevalence of MS and to provide a quantitative assessment of their methodological quality. Methods A comprehensive literature search was performed to obtain all original population-based studies of MS incidence and prevalence in European populations conducted and published between January 1985 and January 2011. Only peer-reviewed full-text articles published in English or French were included. All abstracts were screened for eligibility and two trained reviewers abstracted the data and graded the quality of each study using a tool specifically designed for this study. Results There were 123 studies that met the inclusion criteria. The study estimates were highly heterogeneous, even within regions or countries. Quality was generally higher in the more recent studies, which also tended to use current diagnostic criteria. Prevalence and incidence estimates tended to be higher in the more recent studies and were higher in the Nordic countries and in northern regions of the British Isles. With rare exceptions, prevalence and incidence estimates were higher in women with ratios as high as 3:1. Few studies examined ethnicity. Epidemiological data at the national level was uncommon and there were marked geographical disparities in available data, with large areas of Europe unrepresented and other regions well-represented in the literature. Only 37% of the studies provided standardized estimates. Conclusions Despite the

  17. Minimum prevalence of chromosome 22q11 deletions

    SciTech Connect

    Wilson, D.I.; Cross, I.E.; Burn, J.

    1994-09-01

    Submicroscopic deletions from within chromosome 22q11 are associated with DiGeorge (DGS), velocardiofacial (VCFS) and conotruncal anomaly syndromes and isolated congenital heart defects. In 1993 our pediatric cardiologists clinically referred all children in whom a chromosome 22q11 deletion was suspected for fluorescent in situ hybridization studies using probes from the DGS critical region. 10 affected individuals have been identified to date from the children born in 1993 in the Northern Region served exclusively by our center. A further case, the subsequent pregnancy in one of these families was affected and terminated on the basis of a major heart malformation. In the years 1988-92, for which we have complete ascertainment, there were 1009 heart defects among 191,700 births (mean 202 per annum). Thus we estimate that chromosome 22q11 deletions were the cause of at least 5% of congenital heart disease. As not all children with chromosome 22q11 deletions have a heart defect, this gives an estimated minimum prevalence of 1/4000 live births.

  18. Prevalence of diabetes and impaired fasting glucose in Peru: report from PERUDIAB, a national urban population-based longitudinal study

    PubMed Central

    Seclen, Segundo N; Rosas, Moises E; Arias, Arturo J; Huayta, Ernesto; Medina, Cecilia A

    2015-01-01

    Objectives We aimed to estimate the prevalences of diabetes and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) in a national sample in Peru and assess the relationships with selected sociodemographic variables. Methods We estimated prevalence in PERUDIAB study participants, a nationwide, stratified urban and suburban population selected by random cluster sampling. Between 2010 and 2012, questionnaires were completed and blood tests obtained from 1677 adults ≥25 years of age. Known diabetes was defined as participants having been told so by a doctor or nurse and/or receiving insulin or oral antidiabetic agents. Newly diagnosed diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose ≥126 mg/dL determined during the study and without a previous diabetes diagnosis. IFG was defined as fasting plasma glucose of 100–125 mg/dL. Results The estimated national prevalence of diabetes was 7.0% (95% CI 5.3% to 8.7%) and it was 8.4% (95% CI 5.6% to 11.3%) in metropolitan Lima. No gender differences were detected. Known and newly diagnosed diabetes prevalences were estimated as 4.2% and 2.8%, respectively. A logistic regression response surface model showed a complex trend for an increased prevalence of diabetes in middle-aged individuals and in those with no formal education. Diabetes prevalence was higher in coastal (8.2%) than in highlands (4.5%; p=0.03), and jungle (3.5%; p<0.02) regions. The estimated national prevalence of IFG was 22.4%, higher in males than in females (28.3% vs 19.1%; p<0.001), and higher in coastal (26.4%) than in highlands (17.4%; p=0.03), but not jungle regions (14.9%; p=0.07). Conclusions This study confirms diabetes as an important public health problem, especially for middle-aged individuals and those with no formal education. 40% of the affected individuals were undiagnosed. The elevated prevalence of IFG shows that nearly a quarter of the adult population of Peru has an increased risk of diabetes. PMID:26512325

  19. Prevalence of Diabetes in U.S. Youth in 2009: The SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study

    PubMed Central

    Pettitt, David J.; Talton, Jennifer; Dabelea, Dana; Divers, Jasmin; Imperatore, Giuseppina; Lawrence, Jean M.; Liese, Angela D.; Linder, Barbara; Mayer-Davis, Elizabeth J.; Pihoker, Catherine; Saydah, Sharon H.; Standiford, Debra A.; Hamman, Richard F.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To estimate the prevalence of diabetes in U.S. youth aged <20 years in 2009 and to estimate the total number of youth with diabetes in the U.S. by age, race/ethnicity, and diabetes type. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS To address one of its primary aims, the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study identified youth aged <20 years on 31 December 2009 with physician-diagnosed diabetes in selected areas of Colorado, Ohio, South Carolina, and Washington, among health plan members of Kaiser Permanente Southern California and among American Indians living on reservations in Arizona and New Mexico. Diabetes was classified as type 1, type 2, or other. Race/ethnicity was by self-report. RESULTS From a population of 3,458,974 youth aged <20 years, 7,695 youth with diabetes were identified (2.22/1,000): 6,668 with type 1 diabetes (1.93/1,000), 837 with type 2 diabetes (0.24/1,000), and 190 (0.05/1,000) with other diabetes types. Prevalence increased with age, was slightly higher in females than males, and was most prevalent in non-Hispanic White and least prevalent in Asian/Pacific Islanders, with Native American and black youth having the highest prevalence of type 2 diabetes. An estimated 191,986 U.S. youth aged <20 years have diabetes; 166,984 type 1 diabetes, 20,262 type 2 diabetes, and 4,740 other types. CONCLUSIONS Diabetes, one of the leading chronic diseases in childhood, affects >190,000 (1 of 433) youth aged <20 years in the U.S., with racial and ethnic disparities seen in diabetes prevalence, overall and by diabetes type. PMID:24041677

  20. Prevalence estimation of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) antibodies in dogs from Finland using novel dog anti-TBEV IgG MAb-capture and IgG immunofluorescence assays based on recombinant TBEV subviral particles.

    PubMed

    Levanov, Lev; Vera, Cristina Pérez; Vapalahti, Olli

    2016-07-01

    Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is one of the most dangerous human neurological infections occurring in Europe and Northern parts of Asia with thousands of cases and millions vaccinated against it. The risk of TBE might be assessed through analyses of the samples taken from wildlife or from animals which are in close contact with humans. Dogs have been shown to be a good sentinel species for these studies. Serological assays for diagnosis of TBE in dogs are mainly based on purified and inactivated TBEV antigens. Here we describe novel dog anti-TBEV IgG monoclonal antibody (MAb)-capture assay which is based on TBEV prME subviral particles expressed in mammalian cells from Semliki Forest virus (SFV) replicon as well as IgG immunofluorescence assay (IFA) which is based on Vero E6 cells transfected with the same SFV replicon. We further demonstrate their use in a small-scale TBEV seroprevalence study of dogs representing different regions of Finland. Altogether, 148 dog serum samples were tested by novel assays and results were compared to those obtained with a commercial IgG enzyme immunoassay (EIA), hemagglutination inhibition test and IgG IFA with TBEV infected cells. Compared to reference tests, the sensitivities of the developed assays were 90-100% and the specificities of the two assays were 100%. Analysis of the dog serum samples showed a seroprevalence of 40% on Åland Islands and 6% on Southwestern archipelago of Finland. In conclusion, a specific and sensitive EIA and IFA for the detection of IgG antibodies in canine sera were developed. Based on these assays the seroprevalence of IgG antibodies in dogs from different regions of Finland was assessed and was shown to parallel the known human disease burden as the Southwestern archipelago and Åland Islands in particular had considerable dog TBEV antibody prevalence and represent areas with high risk of TBE for humans.

  1. Prevalence estimation of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) antibodies in dogs from Finland using novel dog anti-TBEV IgG MAb-capture and IgG immunofluorescence assays based on recombinant TBEV subviral particles.

    PubMed

    Levanov, Lev; Vera, Cristina Pérez; Vapalahti, Olli

    2016-07-01

    Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is one of the most dangerous human neurological infections occurring in Europe and Northern parts of Asia with thousands of cases and millions vaccinated against it. The risk of TBE might be assessed through analyses of the samples taken from wildlife or from animals which are in close contact with humans. Dogs have been shown to be a good sentinel species for these studies. Serological assays for diagnosis of TBE in dogs are mainly based on purified and inactivated TBEV antigens. Here we describe novel dog anti-TBEV IgG monoclonal antibody (MAb)-capture assay which is based on TBEV prME subviral particles expressed in mammalian cells from Semliki Forest virus (SFV) replicon as well as IgG immunofluorescence assay (IFA) which is based on Vero E6 cells transfected with the same SFV replicon. We further demonstrate their use in a small-scale TBEV seroprevalence study of dogs representing different regions of Finland. Altogether, 148 dog serum samples were tested by novel assays and results were compared to those obtained with a commercial IgG enzyme immunoassay (EIA), hemagglutination inhibition test and IgG IFA with TBEV infected cells. Compared to reference tests, the sensitivities of the developed assays were 90-100% and the specificities of the two assays were 100%. Analysis of the dog serum samples showed a seroprevalence of 40% on Åland Islands and 6% on Southwestern archipelago of Finland. In conclusion, a specific and sensitive EIA and IFA for the detection of IgG antibodies in canine sera were developed. Based on these assays the seroprevalence of IgG antibodies in dogs from different regions of Finland was assessed and