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Sample records for affect regional climate

  1. NATURAL AND ATHROPOGENIC FACTORS AFFECTING GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE

    EPA Science Inventory

    New England weather is highly variable for a number of
    reasons. Our regional climate is also quite variable. The
    winters of the past decade are milder than they were in the
    1960s and 1970s but as the ice-out and snowfall data show
    (Figs 2.5 and 2.6), the patterns of c...

  2. Cooling Town - How landscape is affecting urban climates in mountain regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammerle, Albin; Leitinger, Georg; Heinl, Michael

    2013-04-01

    Cities and urban areas are known to have a local climate different from that of surrounding rural landscapes. The so-called 'urban heat island' phenomenon results from the replacement of natural with impervious, non-evaporative surfaces such as concrete and asphalt. Urban areas usually have higher solar radiation absorption and a greater thermal conductivity and capacity that lead to greater heat storage during the day and heat release at night. This results in a modified climate that is warmer than the surrounding rural areas. Despite being often considered as 'heating islands', cities are not isolated from their environment and are affected by their thermal properties. Reports for the cities of Vienna (Austria) or Stuttgart (Germany) document the importance of the environmental setting for the climate in the cities. Especially large forest areas around the cities have shown to provide cooling and higher air quality. It is therefore not only the core urban area that needs to be considered for climatic effects but also the large-scale surrounding and environmental setting of the city. But only very few studies (e.g. for rice fields in Japan and Taiwan) specifically investigated this temperature effect of surrounding landscapes on urban areas. The research project "Cooling Town" (www.coolingtown.at) addresses this little knowledge on temperature regimes of urban areas and their thermal connectivity with surrounding landscapes, focusing on mountain environments. One major aspect in this research is to assess the summer temperature regime of the city of Bolzano in South Tyrol (northern Italy). The spatial distribution of air and surface temperatures is analyzed to derive rural and urban and regions with specific temperature regimes and climates and their connectivity. Twelve climate stations were placed in and around the city of Bolzano to measure air and surface temperatures together with wind parameters throughout summer 2012. Thermal infrared images were taken from

  3. Climate Impacts Already Affect Every Region of the United States, Report Warns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2014-05-01

    "Climate change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has moved firmly into the present," according to the third iteration of the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA), issued by the White House on 6 May. "The observed warming and other climatic changes are triggering wide-ranging impacts in every region of our country and throughout our economy," states the report, titled Climate Change Impacts in the United States, issued through the federal interagency U.S. Global Change Research Program.

  4. Regional paleofire regimes affected by non-uniform climate, vegetation and human drivers.

    PubMed

    Blarquez, Olivier; Ali, Adam A; Girardin, Martin P; Grondin, Pierre; Fréchette, Bianca; Bergeron, Yves; Hély, Christelle

    2015-09-02

    Climate, vegetation and humans act on biomass burning at different spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we used a dense network of sedimentary charcoal records from eastern Canada to reconstruct regional biomass burning history over the last 7000 years at the scale of four potential vegetation types: open coniferous forest/tundra, boreal coniferous forest, boreal mixedwood forest and temperate forest. The biomass burning trajectories were compared with regional climate trends reconstructed from general circulation models, tree biomass reconstructed from pollen series, and human population densities. We found that non-uniform climate, vegetation and human drivers acted on regional biomass burning history. In the open coniferous forest/tundra and dense coniferous forest, the regional biomass burning was primarily shaped by gradual establishment of less climate-conducive burning conditions over 5000 years. In the mixed boreal forest an increasing relative proportion of flammable conifers in landscapes since 2000 BP contributed to maintaining biomass burning constant despite climatic conditions less favourable to fires. In the temperate forest, biomass burning was uncoupled with climatic conditions and the main driver was seemingly vegetation until European colonization, i.e. 300 BP. Tree biomass and thus fuel accumulation modulated fire activity, an indication that biomass burning is fuel-dependent and notably upon long-term co-dominance shifts between conifers and broadleaf trees.

  5. Regional paleofire regimes affected by non-uniform climate, vegetation and human drivers

    PubMed Central

    Blarquez, Olivier; Ali, Adam A.; Girardin, Martin P.; Grondin, Pierre; Fréchette, Bianca; Bergeron, Yves; Hély, Christelle

    2015-01-01

    Climate, vegetation and humans act on biomass burning at different spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we used a dense network of sedimentary charcoal records from eastern Canada to reconstruct regional biomass burning history over the last 7000 years at the scale of four potential vegetation types: open coniferous forest/tundra, boreal coniferous forest, boreal mixedwood forest and temperate forest. The biomass burning trajectories were compared with regional climate trends reconstructed from general circulation models, tree biomass reconstructed from pollen series, and human population densities. We found that non-uniform climate, vegetation and human drivers acted on regional biomass burning history. In the open coniferous forest/tundra and dense coniferous forest, the regional biomass burning was primarily shaped by gradual establishment of less climate-conducive burning conditions over 5000 years. In the mixed boreal forest an increasing relative proportion of flammable conifers in landscapes since 2000 BP contributed to maintaining biomass burning constant despite climatic conditions less favourable to fires. In the temperate forest, biomass burning was uncoupled with climatic conditions and the main driver was seemingly vegetation until European colonization, i.e. 300 BP. Tree biomass and thus fuel accumulation modulated fire activity, an indication that biomass burning is fuel-dependent and notably upon long-term co-dominance shifts between conifers and broadleaf trees. PMID:26330162

  6. Regional paleofire regimes affected by non-uniform climate, vegetation and human drivers.

    PubMed

    Blarquez, Olivier; Ali, Adam A; Girardin, Martin P; Grondin, Pierre; Fréchette, Bianca; Bergeron, Yves; Hély, Christelle

    2015-01-01

    Climate, vegetation and humans act on biomass burning at different spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we used a dense network of sedimentary charcoal records from eastern Canada to reconstruct regional biomass burning history over the last 7000 years at the scale of four potential vegetation types: open coniferous forest/tundra, boreal coniferous forest, boreal mixedwood forest and temperate forest. The biomass burning trajectories were compared with regional climate trends reconstructed from general circulation models, tree biomass reconstructed from pollen series, and human population densities. We found that non-uniform climate, vegetation and human drivers acted on regional biomass burning history. In the open coniferous forest/tundra and dense coniferous forest, the regional biomass burning was primarily shaped by gradual establishment of less climate-conducive burning conditions over 5000 years. In the mixed boreal forest an increasing relative proportion of flammable conifers in landscapes since 2000 BP contributed to maintaining biomass burning constant despite climatic conditions less favourable to fires. In the temperate forest, biomass burning was uncoupled with climatic conditions and the main driver was seemingly vegetation until European colonization, i.e. 300 BP. Tree biomass and thus fuel accumulation modulated fire activity, an indication that biomass burning is fuel-dependent and notably upon long-term co-dominance shifts between conifers and broadleaf trees. PMID:26330162

  7. Factors affecting summer maize yield under climate change in Shandong Province in the Huanghuaihai Region of China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Guoqing; Liu, Hongjun; Zhang, Jiwang; Liu, Peng; Dong, Shuting

    2012-07-01

    Clarification of influencing factors (cultivar planted, cultivation management, climatic conditions) affecting yields of summer maize ( Zea mays L.) would provide valuable information for increasing yields further under variable climatic conditions. Here, we report actual maize yields in the Huanghuaihai region over the past 50 years (1957-2007), simulated yields of major varieties in different years (Baimaya in the 1950s, Zhengdan-2 in the 1970s, Yedan-13 in the 1990s, and Zhengdan-958 in the 2000s), and factors that influence yield. The results show that, although each variety change has played a critical role in increasing maize yields, the contribution of variety to yield increase has decreased steadily over the past 50 years (42.6%-44.3% from the 1950s to the 1970s, 34.4%-47.2% from the 1970s to the 1990s, and 21.0%-37.6% from the 1990s to the 2000s). The impact of climatic conditions on maize yield has exhibited an increasing trend (0.67%-22.5% from the 1950s to the 1970s, 2.6%-27.0% from the 1970s to the 1990s, and 9.1%-51.1% from the 1990s to the 2000s); however, interannual differences can be large, especially if there were large changes in temperature and rainfall. Among climatic factors, rainfall had a greater positive influence than light and temperature on yield increase. Cultivation measures could change the contribution rates of variety and climatic conditions. Overall, unless there is a major breakthrough in variety, improving cultivation measures will remain important for increasing future summer maize yields in the Huanghuaihai region.

  8. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

    MedlinePlus

    ... Progress Report (PDF, 11.3MB, May 2016) Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S. Climate change ... by 2050. Preparing for Increased Weather Risks Regional Climate Hubs In an effort to mitigate climate-related ...

  9. Climatic Concepts and Regions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomas, Paul F.

    Designed for students in grades 7 through 12, this teaching unit presents illustrative resource materials depicting concepts related to climate and geographic regions. Emphasis is on giving students an understanding of climatic elements and factors, not as isolated, disjointed entities, but as a dynamic interplay of forces having a very definite…

  10. Northwest Regional Climate Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lipschultz, Fred

    2011-01-01

    Objectives are to establish a continuing, inclusive National process that: 1) synthesizes relevant science and information 2) increases understanding of what is known & not known 3) identifies information needs related to preparing for climate variability and change, and reducing climate impacts and vulnerability 4) evaluates progress of adaptation & mitigation activities 5) informs science priorities 6) builds assessment capacity in regions and sectors 7) builds understanding & skilled use of findings

  11. Do regional climate models represent regional climate?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maraun, Douglas; Widmann, Martin

    2014-05-01

    When using climate change scenarios - either from global climate models or further downscaled - to assess localised real world impacts, one has to ensure that the local simulation indeed correctly represents the real world local climate. Representativeness has so far mainly been discussed as a scale issue: simulated meteorological variables in general represent grid box averages, whereas real weather is often expressed by means of point values. As a result, in particular simulated extreme values are not directly comparable with observed local extreme values. Here we argue that the issue of representativeness is more general. To illustrate this point, assume the following situations: first, the (GCM or RCM) simulated large scale weather, e.g., the mid-latitude storm track, might be systematically distorted compared to observed weather. If such a distortion at the synoptic scale is strong, the simulated local climate might be completely different from the observed. Second, the orography even of high resolution RCMs is only a coarse model of true orography. In particular in mountain ranges the simulated mesoscale flow might therefore considerably deviate from the observed flow, leading to systematically displaced local weather. In both cases, the simulated local climate does not represent observed local climate. Thus, representativeness also encompasses representing a particular location. We propose to measure this aspect of representativeness for RCMs driven with perfect boundary conditions as the correlation between observations and simulations at the inter-annual scale. In doing so, random variability generated by the RCMs is largely averaged out. As an example, we assess how well KNMIs RACMO2 RCM at 25km horizontal resolution represents winter precipitation in the gridded E-OBS data set over the European domain. At a chosen grid box, RCM precipitation might not be representative of observed precipitation, in particular in the rain shadow of major moutain ranges

  12. Factors affecting population dynamics of leaf beetles in a subarctic region: The interplay between climate warming and pollution decline.

    PubMed

    Zvereva, Elena L; Hunter, Mark D; Zverev, Vitali; Kozlov, Mikhail V

    2016-10-01

    Understanding the mechanisms by which abiotic drivers, such as climate and pollution, influence population dynamics of animals is important for our ability to predict the population trajectories of individual species under different global change scenarios. We monitored four leaf beetle species (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) feeding on willows (Salix spp.) in 13 sites along a pollution gradient in subarctic forests of north-western Russia from 1993 to 2014. During a subset of years, we also measured the impacts of natural enemies and host plant quality on the performance of one of these species, Chrysomela lapponica. Spring and fall temperatures increased by 2.5-3°C during the 21-year observation period, while emissions of sulfur dioxide and heavy metals from the nickel-copper smelter at Monchegorsk decreased fivefold. However, contrary to predictions of increasing herbivory with climate warming, and in spite of discovered increase in host plant quality with increase in temperatures, none of the beetle species became more abundant during the past 20years. No directional trends were observed in densities of either Phratora vitellinae or Plagiodera versicolora, whereas densities of both C. lapponica and Gonioctena pallida showed a simultaneous rapid 20-fold decline in the early 2000s, remaining at very low levels thereafter. Time series analysis and model selection indicated that these abrupt population declines were associated with decreases in aerial emissions from the smelter. Observed declines in the population densities of C. lapponica can be explained by increases in mortality from natural enemies due to the combined action of climate warming and declining pollution. This pattern suggests that at least in some tri-trophic systems, top-down factors override bottom-up effects and govern the impacts of environmental changes on insect herbivores. PMID:27266523

  13. Factors affecting population dynamics of leaf beetles in a subarctic region: The interplay between climate warming and pollution decline.

    PubMed

    Zvereva, Elena L; Hunter, Mark D; Zverev, Vitali; Kozlov, Mikhail V

    2016-10-01

    Understanding the mechanisms by which abiotic drivers, such as climate and pollution, influence population dynamics of animals is important for our ability to predict the population trajectories of individual species under different global change scenarios. We monitored four leaf beetle species (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) feeding on willows (Salix spp.) in 13 sites along a pollution gradient in subarctic forests of north-western Russia from 1993 to 2014. During a subset of years, we also measured the impacts of natural enemies and host plant quality on the performance of one of these species, Chrysomela lapponica. Spring and fall temperatures increased by 2.5-3°C during the 21-year observation period, while emissions of sulfur dioxide and heavy metals from the nickel-copper smelter at Monchegorsk decreased fivefold. However, contrary to predictions of increasing herbivory with climate warming, and in spite of discovered increase in host plant quality with increase in temperatures, none of the beetle species became more abundant during the past 20years. No directional trends were observed in densities of either Phratora vitellinae or Plagiodera versicolora, whereas densities of both C. lapponica and Gonioctena pallida showed a simultaneous rapid 20-fold decline in the early 2000s, remaining at very low levels thereafter. Time series analysis and model selection indicated that these abrupt population declines were associated with decreases in aerial emissions from the smelter. Observed declines in the population densities of C. lapponica can be explained by increases in mortality from natural enemies due to the combined action of climate warming and declining pollution. This pattern suggests that at least in some tri-trophic systems, top-down factors override bottom-up effects and govern the impacts of environmental changes on insect herbivores.

  14. Benthic macrofauna assemblages and biochemical properties of sediments in two Antarctic regions differently affected by climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sañé, E.; Isla, E.; Gerdes, D.; Montiel, A.; Gili, J.-M.

    2012-03-01

    Lipid, protein and carbohydrate concentrations have been determined in sediment cores from the continental shelf in the South Eastern Weddell Sea (SEWS), where no ice shelves have been present at least for thousands of years, and the continental shelf off the Eastern Antarctic Peninsula (EAP), in the area where two ice shelf collapses occurred in 1995 and 2002. On one hand, SEWS presents an important flux of fresh organic matter to the seabed during summer, whereas on the other hand, the presence of ice shelves in EAP hampered photosynthesis restricting the input of organic matter to advected refractory material. In the present study, biochemical variables and benthic macrofauna abundance, biomass and diversity confirmed differences between the two regions. Lipid concentrations were higher in SEWS than in EAP, whereas carbohydrate concentrations were higher in the latter region. These differences were attributed to the higher concentration of labile and refractory material, respectively. Biomass, abundance and diversity of the macrofauna were higher in SEWS than in EAP, where benthic communities started receiving a fresh organic matter input only after the recent ice shelf collapses. As regards macrofauna composition, both regions presented macrobenthic communities associated to early stages of recolonization.

  15. Climate-chemistry interaction affecting tropospheric ozone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mao, Huiting

    1999-09-01

    Tropospheric ozone, an important radiative-chemical species, has been observed increasing especially at northern midlatitudes during the past few decades. This dissertation addresses climate-chemistry interaction associated with such increases in three aspects using observations as well as atmospheric chemistry and climate models. Ozone impact on climate is first evaluated by radiative forcing calculations due to observed ozone changes. It is found that a 10% increase in tropospheric ozone causes a radiative forcing of 0.17 Wm-2 using a fixed temperature (FT) method or 0.13 Wm-2 using a fixed dynamic heating (FDH) method, which is comparable to the radiative forcing 0.26 (FT) and -0.09 Wm-2 (FDH) caused by the stratospheric ozone depletion during the 1980s. Second, radiative forcing due to changes in ozone precursors is estimated. Ozone changes in response to a 20% reduction in surface NOx emission in six regions around the globe differ between regions. A maximum decrease in ozone column reaches 5% in southeast Asia and the central Atlantic Ocean, inducing a local radiative forcing of up to -0.1 Wm-2 in those regions. It indicates that surface NOx emission changes can potentially affect regional climate. Third, the effects of climate and climate changes on atmospheric chemistry are addressed with two studies. One study investigates the effects of global warming on methane and ozone, and another looks into cloud effects on photodissociation rate constants. Calculations based on the IPCC business-as-usual scenario indicate that by 2050, temperature and moisture increases can suppress methane and tropospheric ozone increases by 17% and 11%, respectively, in reference to the 1990 concentrations. The combined effects offset the global warming induced forcing 3.90 Wm -2 by -0.46 Wm-2. A one-dimensional study suggests that a typical cirrus cloud (τ = 2) can significantly increase J(O1D) and J(NO2) around the tropopause with a maximum of 21%. Geographical and seasonal

  16. Regional climate service in Southern Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schipper, Janus; Hackenbruch, Julia

    2013-04-01

    Climate change challenges science, politics, business and society at the international, national and regional level. The South German Climate Office at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) is a contact for the structuring and dissemination of information on climate and climate change in the South German region. It provides scientifically based and user-oriented climate information. Thereby it builds a bridge between the climate sciences and society and provides scientific information on climate change in an understandable way. The expertise of KIT, in which several institutions operate on fundamental and applied climate research, and of partner institutions is the basis for the work in the climate office. The regional focus is on the south of Germany. Thematic focuses are e.g. regional climate modeling, trends in extreme weather events such as heavy rain and hail event, and issues for energy and water management. The South German Climate Office is one of four Regional Helmholtz Climate Offices, of which each has a regional and thematic focus. The users of the Climate Office can be summarized into three categories. First, there is the general public. This category consists mainly of non-professionals. Here, special attention is on an understandable translation of climate information. Attention is paid to application-related aspects, because each individual is affected in a different way by climate change. Typical examples of this category are school groups, citizens and the media. The second category consists of experts of other disciplines. Unlike the first category they are mainly interested in the exchange of results and data. It is important to the climate office to provide support for the use of climatological results. Typical representatives of this category are ministries, state offices, and companies. In the third and final category are scientists. In addition to the climatologists, this category also holds representatives from other scientific

  17. "Climate Matters Documoments": Enabling Regionally-Specific Climate Awareness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keener, V. W.; Finucane, M.

    2012-12-01

    The Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences & Assessments (RISA) is a multidisciplinary program that enhances the ability of Pacific Island communities to understand, plan for, and adapt to climate-induced change. Using both social and physical science research methods, the Pacific RISA engages a network of regional decision-makers and stakeholders to help solve climate-related issues. Pacific RISA has a broad audience of local and regional decision-makers (i.e. natural resource managers, community planners, state and federal government agencies) and stakeholders (i.e. farmers and ranchers, fishermen, community and native islander groups). The RISA program engages with this audience through a mixed-method approach of two-way communication, including one-on-one interviews, workshops, consensus discussions and public presentations that allow us to tailor our efforts to the needs of specific stakeholders. A recent Pacific RISA project was the creation and production of four short, educational "documoment" videos that explore the different ways in which climate change in Hawaii affects stakeholders from different sectors. The documoments, generally titled "Climate Matters", start with a quote about why climate matters to each stakeholder: a rancher, a coastal hotel owner, the manager of a landfill, and the local branch of the National Weather Service. The narratives then have each stakeholder discussing how climate impacts their professional and personal lives, and describing the types of climate change they have experienced in the islands. Each video ends with a technical fact about how different climate variables in Hawaii (sea level, precipitation, ENSO) have actually changed within the last century of observational data. Freely available on www.PacificRISA.org, the Documoments have been viewed over 350 times, and have inspired similar video projects and received positive attention from different audiences of stakeholders and scientists. In other assessment work the

  18. Great Lakes' regional climate regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kravtsov, Sergey; Sugiyama, Noriyuki; Roebber, Paul

    2016-04-01

    We simulate the seasonal cycle of the Great Lakes' water temperature and lake ice using an idealized coupled lake-atmosphere-ice model. Under identical seasonally varying boundary conditions, this model exhibits more than one seasonally varying equilibrium solutions, which we associate with distinct regional climate regimes. Colder/warmer regimes are characterized by abundant/scarce amounts of wintertime ice and cooler/warmer summer temperatures, respectively. These regimes are also evident in the observations of the Great Lakes' climate variability over recent few decades, and are found to be most pronounced for Lake Superior, the deepest of the Great Lakes, consistent with model predictions. Multiple climate regimes of the Great Lakes also play a crucial role in the accelerated warming of the lakes relative to the surrounding land regions in response to larger-scale global warming. We discuss the physical origin and characteristics of multiple climate regimes over the lakes, as well as their implications for a longer-term regional climate variability.

  19. STRUCTURAL AND AFFECTIVE ASPECTS OF CLASSROOM CLIMATE.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    WALBERG, HERBERT J.

    USING THE CLASSROOM AS THE UNIT OF ANALYSIS A 25 PERCENT RANDOM SAMPLE OF STUDENTS IN 72 CLASSES FROM ALL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY TOOK THE CLASSROOM CLIMATE QUESTIONNAIRE IN ORDER TO INVESTIGATE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STRUCTURAL (ORGANIZATIONAL) AND AFFECTIVE (PERSONAL INTERACTION BETWEEN GROUP MEMBERS) DIMENSIONS OF GROUP CLIMATE. REGRESSION AND…

  20. Landscape fragmentation affects responses of avian communities to climate change.

    PubMed

    Jarzyna, Marta A; Porter, William F; Maurer, Brian A; Zuckerberg, Benjamin; Finley, Andrew O

    2015-08-01

    Forecasting the consequences of climate change is contingent upon our understanding of the relationship between biodiversity patterns and climatic variability. While the impacts of climate change on individual species have been well-documented, there is a paucity of studies on climate-mediated changes in community dynamics. Our objectives were to investigate the relationship between temporal turnover in avian biodiversity and changes in climatic conditions and to assess the role of landscape fragmentation in affecting this relationship. We hypothesized that community turnover would be highest in regions experiencing the most pronounced changes in climate and that these patterns would be reduced in human-dominated landscapes. To test this hypothesis, we quantified temporal turnover in avian communities over a 20-year period using data from the New York State Breeding Atlases collected during 1980-1985 and 2000-2005. We applied Bayesian spatially varying intercept models to evaluate the relationship between temporal turnover and temporal trends in climatic conditions and landscape fragmentation. We found that models including interaction terms between climate change and landscape fragmentation were superior to models without the interaction terms, suggesting that the relationship between avian community turnover and changes in climatic conditions was affected by the level of landscape fragmentation. Specifically, we found weaker associations between temporal turnover and climatic change in regions with prevalent habitat fragmentation. We suggest that avian communities in fragmented landscapes are more robust to climate change than communities found in contiguous habitats because they are comprised of species with wider thermal niches and thus are less susceptible to shifts in climatic variability. We conclude that highly fragmented regions are likely to undergo less pronounced changes in composition and structure of faunal communities as a result of climate change

  1. Landscape fragmentation affects responses of avian communities to climate change.

    PubMed

    Jarzyna, Marta A; Porter, William F; Maurer, Brian A; Zuckerberg, Benjamin; Finley, Andrew O

    2015-08-01

    Forecasting the consequences of climate change is contingent upon our understanding of the relationship between biodiversity patterns and climatic variability. While the impacts of climate change on individual species have been well-documented, there is a paucity of studies on climate-mediated changes in community dynamics. Our objectives were to investigate the relationship between temporal turnover in avian biodiversity and changes in climatic conditions and to assess the role of landscape fragmentation in affecting this relationship. We hypothesized that community turnover would be highest in regions experiencing the most pronounced changes in climate and that these patterns would be reduced in human-dominated landscapes. To test this hypothesis, we quantified temporal turnover in avian communities over a 20-year period using data from the New York State Breeding Atlases collected during 1980-1985 and 2000-2005. We applied Bayesian spatially varying intercept models to evaluate the relationship between temporal turnover and temporal trends in climatic conditions and landscape fragmentation. We found that models including interaction terms between climate change and landscape fragmentation were superior to models without the interaction terms, suggesting that the relationship between avian community turnover and changes in climatic conditions was affected by the level of landscape fragmentation. Specifically, we found weaker associations between temporal turnover and climatic change in regions with prevalent habitat fragmentation. We suggest that avian communities in fragmented landscapes are more robust to climate change than communities found in contiguous habitats because they are comprised of species with wider thermal niches and thus are less susceptible to shifts in climatic variability. We conclude that highly fragmented regions are likely to undergo less pronounced changes in composition and structure of faunal communities as a result of climate change

  2. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions.

    PubMed

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Parks, Sean A

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

  3. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-08-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported.

  4. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    PubMed Central

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

  5. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions.

    PubMed

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Parks, Sean A

    2016-08-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported.

  6. Integrating Climate Information and Decision Processes for Regional Climate Resilience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buizer, James; Goddard, Lisa; Guido, Zackry

    2015-04-01

    An integrated multi-disciplinary team of researchers from the University of Arizona and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University have joined forces with communities and institutions in the Caribbean, South Asia and West Africa to develop relevant, usable climate information and connect it to real decisions and development challenges. The overall objective of the "Integrating Climate Information and Decision Processes for Regional Climate Resilience" program is to build community resilience to negative impacts of climate variability and change. We produce and provide science-based climate tools and information to vulnerable peoples and the public, private, and civil society organizations that serve them. We face significant institutional challenges because of the geographical and cultural distance between the locale of climate tool-makers and the locale of climate tool-users and because of the complicated, often-inefficient networks that link them. To use an accepted metaphor, there is great institutional difficulty in coordinating the supply of and the demand for useful climate products that can be put to the task of building local resilience and reducing climate vulnerability. Our program is designed to reduce the information constraint and to initiate a linkage that is more demand driven, and which provides a set of priorities for further climate tool generation. A demand-driven approach to the co-production of appropriate and relevant climate tools seeks to meet the direct needs of vulnerable peoples as these needs have been canvassed empirically and as the benefits of application have been adequately evaluated. We first investigate how climate variability and climate change affect the livelihoods of vulnerable peoples. In so doing we assess the complex institutional web within which these peoples live -- the public agencies that serve them, their forms of access to necessary information, the structural constraints

  7. How Climate Change Affects Water Resources in the Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schädler, B.

    2009-04-01

    Water resources in the Alps are abundant, but long term observed climatological, glaciological and hydrological time series clearly show ongoing climate changes. And regional climate change scenarios indicate even more changes. Will we experience more severe natural disasters in the Alps and will water scarcity affect alpine agriculture and tourism? Or might the importance of the Alps as «Water Tower of Europe» even grow?

  8. Land use and climate affect Black Tern, Northern Harrier, and Marsh Wren abundance in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Forcey, Greg M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Linz, George M.; McKann, Patrick C.

    2014-01-01

    Bird populations are influenced by many environmental factors at both large and small scales. Our study evaluated the influences of regional climate and land-use variables on the Northern Harrier (Circus cyaneus), Black Tern (Childonias niger), and Marsh Wren (Cistothorus palustris) in the prairie potholes of the upper Midwest of the United States. These species were chosen because their diverse habitat preference represent the spectrum of habitat conditions present in the Prairie Potholes, ranging from open prairies to dense cattail marshes. We evaluated land-use covariates at three logarithmic spatial scales (1,000 ha, 10,000 ha, and 100,000 ha) and constructed models a priori using information from published habitat associations and climatic influences. The strongest influences on the abundance of each of the three species were the percentage of wetland area across all three spatial scales and precipitation in the year preceding that when bird surveys were conducted. Even among scales ranging over three orders of magnitude the influence of spatial scale was small, as models with the same variables expressed at different scales were often in the best model subset. Examination of the effects of large-scale environmental variables on wetland birds elucidated relationships overlooked in many smaller-scale studies, such as the influences of climate and habitat variables at landscape scales. Given the spatial variation in the abundance of our focal species within the prairie potholes, our model predictions are especially useful for targeting locations, such as northeastern South Dakota and central North Dakota, where management and conservation efforts would be optimally beneficial. This modeling approach can also be applied to other species and geographic areas to focus landscape conservation efforts and subsequent small-scale studies, especially in constrained economic climates.

  9. Pirate attacks affect Indian Ocean climate research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Shawn R.; Bourassa, Mark A.; Long, Michael

    2011-07-01

    Pirate attacks in the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean off the coast of Somalia nearly doubled from 111 in 2008 to 217 in 2009 [International Maritime Bureau, 2009, International Maritime Bureau, 2010]. Consequently, merchant vessel traffic in the area around Somalia significantly decreased. Many of these merchant vessels carry instruments that record wind and other weather conditions near the ocean surface, and alterations in ship tracks have resulted in a hole sized at about 2.5 million square kilometers in the marine weather-observing network off the coast of Somalia. The data void exists in the formation region of the Somali low-level jet, a wind pattern that is one of the main drivers of the Indian summer monsoon. Further, a stable, multidecadal record has been interrupted, and consequently, long-term analyses of the jet derived from surface wind data are now showing artificial anomalies that will affect efforts by scientists to identify interannual to decadal variations in the climate of the northwestern Indian Ocean.

  10. Regional Climate Modeling: Progress, Challenges, and Prospects

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Yuqing; Leung, Lai R.; McGregor, John L.; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Ding, Yihui; Kimura, Fujio

    2004-12-01

    Regional climate modeling with regional climate models (RCMs) has matured over the past decade and allows for meaningful utilization in a broad spectrum of applications. In this paper, latest progresses in regional climate modeling studies are reviewed, including RCM development, applications of RCMs to dynamical downscaling for climate change assessment, seasonal climate predictions and climate process studies, and the study of regional climate predictability. Challenges and potential directions of future research in this important area are discussed, with the focus on those to which less attention has been given previously, such as the importance of ensemble simulations, further development and improvement of regional climate modeling approach, modeling extreme climate events and sub-daily variation of clouds and precipitation, model evaluation and diagnostics, applications of RCMs to climate process studies and seasonal predictions, and development of regional earth system models. It is believed that with both the demonstrated credibility of RCMs’ capability in reproducing not only monthly to seasonal mean climate and interannual variability but also the extreme climate events when driven by good quality reanalysis and the continuous improvements in the skill of global general circulation models (GCMs) in simulating large-scale atmospheric circulation, regional climate modeling will remain an important dynamical downscaling tool for providing the needed information for assessing climate change impacts and seasonal climate predictions, and a powerful tool for improving our understanding of regional climate processes. An internationally coordinated effort can be developed with different focuses by different groups to advance regional climate modeling studies. It is also recognized that since the final quality of the results from nested RCMs depends in part on the realism of the large-scale forcing provided by GCMs, the reduction of errors and improvement in

  11. [Climatic suitability of single cropping rice planting region in China].

    PubMed

    Duan, Ju-Qi; Zhou, Guang-Sheng

    2012-02-01

    To clarify the leading climate factors affecting the distribution of single cropping rice planting region in China at national and annual temporal scales and to reveal the potential distribution and climatic suitability divisions of this planting region in China could not only provide scientific basis for optimizing the allocation of single cropping rice production, modifying planting pattern, and introducing fine varieties, but also ensure the food security of China. In this paper, the potential climate factors affecting the single cropping rice distribution in China at regional and annual scales were selected from related literatures, and the single cropping rice geographic information from the national agro-meteorological observation stations of China Meteorological Administration (CMA), together with the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and spatial analyst function of Arc-GIS software, were adopted to clarify the leading climate factors affecting the potential distribution of single cropping rice planting region in China, and to construct a model about the relationships between the potential distribution of the planting region and the climate. The results showed that annual precipitation, moisture index, and days of not less than 18 degrees C stably were the leading climate factors affecting the potential distribution of single cropping rice planting region in China, with their cumulative contribution rate reached 94.5% of all candidate climate factors. The model constructed in this paper could well simulate the potential distribution of single cropping rice planting region in China. According to the appearance frequency, the low, medium and high climatic suitability divisions of single cropping rice planting region in China were clarified, and the climate characteristics of the planting region in each climatic suitability division were analyzed. PMID:22586968

  12. Portuguese wine regions under a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, João A.; Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Jones, Gregory V.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2014-05-01

    Viticulture and wine production are among the most important sectors of the Portuguese economy. However, as grapevines are strongly affected by weather and climate, climate change may represent an important threat to wine production. The current (1950-2000) and future (2041-2070) bioclimatic conditions in Portugal are discussed by analyzing a number of indices suitable for viticultural zoning, including a categorized bioclimatic index. A two-step method of spatial pattern downscaling is applied in order to achieve a very high spatial resolution (of approximately 1 km) throughout Portugal. Future projections are based on an ensemble of 13 climate model transient experiments, forced by the SRES A1B emission scenario. Results for the recent past are in clear agreement with the current distribution of vineyards and of the established Denomination of Origin regions. Furthermore, the typical climatic conditions associated with each grapevine variety that are currently grown in Portugal are assessed. Under future scenarios, nevertheless, the current conditions are projected to change significantly towards a lower bioclimatic diversity. This can be explained by the projected warming and drying in future decades. The resulting changes in varietal suitability and wine characteristics of each region may thereby bring important challenges for the Portuguese winemaking sector. As such, new measures need to be timely implemented to adapt to these climate change projections and to mitigate their likely detrimental impacts on the Portuguese economy. Acknowledgments: this work is supported by European Union Funds (FEDER/COMPETE - Operational Competitiveness Programme) and by national funds (FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) under the project ClimVineSafe (PTDC/AGR-ALI/110877/2009).

  13. Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V.; Bradley, Raymond S.; Diaz, Henry F.

    2011-08-01

    Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it's important to provide regional climate change information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation and also in capturing regional climate features such as the bimodal annual cycle of precipitation and the Caribbean low-level jet. A variety of climate regimes within the model domain are also better identified in the regional model simulation due to improved resolution of topographic features. Although, the model suffers from large precipitation biases, it shows improvements over the coarse-resolution driving model in simulating precipitation amounts. The model shows a dry bias in the wet season and a wet bias in the dry season suggesting that it's unable to capture the full range of precipitation variability. Projected warming under the A2 scenario is higher in the wet season than that in the dry season with the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing highest warming. A large reduction in precipitation in the wet season is projected for the region, whereas parts of Central America that receive a considerable amount of moisture in the form of orographic precipitation show significant decreases in precipitation in the dry season. Projected climatic changes can have detrimental impacts on biodiversity as they are spatially similar, but far greater in magnitude, than those observed during the El Niño events in recent decades that adversely affected species in the region.

  14. Climate Change and Climate Variability in the Latin American Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magrin, G. O.; Gay Garcia, C.; Cruz Choque, D.; Gimenez-Sal, J. C.; Moreno, A. R.; Nagy, G. J.; Nobre, C.; Villamizar, A.

    2007-05-01

    Over the past three decades LA was subjected to several climate-related impacts due to increased El Niño occurrences. Two extremely intense episodes of El Niño and other increased climate extremes happened during this period contributing greatly to augment the vulnerability of human systems to natural disasters. In addition to weather and climate, the main drivers of the increased vulnerability are demographic pressure, unregulated urban growth, poverty and rural migration, low investment in infrastructure and services, and problems in inter-sector coordination. As well, increases in temperature and increases/decreases in precipitation observed during the last part of 20th century have yet led to intensification of glaciers melting, increases in floods/droughts and forest fires frequency, increases in morbidity and mortality, increases in plant diseases incidence; lost of biodiversity, reduction in dairy cattle production, and problems with hydropower generation, highly affecting LA human system. For the end of the 21st century, the projected mean warming for LA ranges from 1 to 7.5ºC and the frequency of weather and climate extremes could increase. Additionally, deforestation is projected to continue leading to a reduction of 25 percent in Amazonia forest in 2020 and 40 percent in 2050. Soybeans planted area in South America could increase by 55 percent by 2020 enhancing aridity/desertification in many of the already water- stressed regions. By 2050 LA population is likely to be 50 percent larger than in 2000, and migration from the country sides to the cities will continue. In the near future, these predicted changes are very likely to severely affect a number of ecosystems and sectors distribution; b) Disappearing most tropical glaciers; c) Reducing water availability and hydropower generation; d) Increasing desertification and aridity; e) Severely affecting people, resources and economic activities in coastal areas; f) Increasing crop's pests and diseases

  15. A Hierarchical Evaluation of Regional Climate Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ringler, Todd; Collins, William D.; Taylor, Mark; Ashfaq, Moetasim

    2013-08-20

    Global climate models (GCMs) are the primary tools for predicting the evolution of the climate system. Through decades of development, GCMs have demonstrated useful skill in simulating climate at continental to global scales. However, large uncertainties remain in projecting climate change at regional scales, which limit our ability to inform decisions on climate change adaptation and mitigation. To bridge this gap, different modeling approaches including nested regional climate models (RCMs), global stretch-grid models, and global high-resolution atmospheric models have been used to provide regional climate simulations (Leung et al. 2003). In previous efforts to evaluate these approaches, isolating their relative merits was not possible because factors such as dynamical frameworks, physics parameterizations, and model resolutions were not systematically constrained. With advances in high performance computing, it is now feasible to run coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs at horizontal resolution comparable to what RCMs use today. Global models with local refinement using unstructured grids have become available for modeling regional climate (e.g., Rauscher et al. 2012; Ringler et al. 2013). While they offer opportunities to improve climate simulations, significant efforts are needed to test their veracity for regional-scale climate simulations.

  16. Regional Collaborations to Combat Climate Change: The Climate Science Centers as Strategies for Climate Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morelli, T. L.; Palmer, R. N.

    2014-12-01

    The Department of Interior Northeast Climate Science Center (NE CSC) is part of a federal network of eight Climate Science Centers created to provide scientific information, tools, and techniques that managers and other parties interested in land, water, wildlife and cultural resources can use to anticipate, monitor, and adapt to climate change. The consortium approach taken by the CSCs allows the academic side of the Centers to gather expertise across departments, disciplines, and even institutions. This interdisciplinary approach is needed for successfully meeting regional needs for climate impact assessment, adaptive management, education, and stakeholder outreach. Partnership with the federal government facilitates interactions with the key on-the-ground stakeholders who are able to operationalize the results and conclusions of that research, monitor the progress of management actions, and provide feedback to refine future methodology and decisions as new information on climate impacts is discovered. For example, NE CSC researchers are analyzing the effect of climate change on the timing and volume of seasonal and annual streamflows and the concomitant effects on ecological and cultural resources; developing techniques to monitor tree range dynamics as affected by natural disturbances which can enable adaptation of projected climate impacts; studying the effects of changes in the frequency and magnitude of drought and stream temperature on brook trout habitats, spatial distribution and population persistence; and conducting assessments of northeastern regional climate projections and high-resolution downscaling. Project methods are being developed in collaboration with stakeholders and results are being shared broadly with federal, state, and other partners to implement and refine effective and adaptive management actions.

  17. FY08 LDRD Final Report Regional Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Bader, D C; Chin, H; Caldwell, P M

    2009-05-19

    An integrated, multi-model capability for regional climate change simulation is needed to perform original analyses to understand and prepare for the impacts of climate change on the time and space scales that are critical to California's future environmental quality and economic prosperity. Our intent was to develop a very high resolution regional simulation capability to address consequences of climate change in California to complement the global modeling capability that is supported by DOE at LLNL and other institutions to inform national and international energy policies. The California state government, through the California Energy Commission (CEC), institutionalized the State's climate change assessment process through its biennial climate change reports. The bases for these reports, however, are global climate change simulations for future scenarios designed to inform international policy negotiations, and are primarily focused on the global to continental scale impacts of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. These simulations do not meet the needs of California public and private officials who will make major decisions in the next decade that require an understanding of climate change in California for the next thirty to fifty years and its effects on energy use, water utilization, air quality, agriculture and natural ecosystems. With the additional development of regional dynamical climate modeling capability, LLNL will be able to design and execute global simulations specifically for scenarios important to the state, then use those results to drive regional simulations of the impacts of the simulated climate change for regions as small as individual cities or watersheds. Through this project, we systematically studied the strengths and weaknesses of downscaling global model results with a regional mesoscale model to guide others, particularly university researchers, who are using the technique based on models with less complete parameterizations or

  18. Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Shang-Ping; Deser, Clara; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Collins, Matthew; Delworth, Thomas L.; Hall, Alex; Hawkins, Ed; Johnson, Nathaniel C.; Cassou, Christophe; Giannini, Alessandra; Watanabe, Masahiro

    2015-10-01

    Regional information on climate change is urgently needed but often deemed unreliable. To achieve credible regional climate projections, it is essential to understand underlying physical processes, reduce model biases and evaluate their impact on projections, and adequately account for internal variability. In the tropics, where atmospheric internal variability is small compared with the forced change, advancing our understanding of the coupling between long-term changes in upper-ocean temperature and the atmospheric circulation will help most to narrow the uncertainty. In the extratropics, relatively large internal variability introduces substantial uncertainty, while exacerbating risks associated with extreme events. Large ensemble simulations are essential to estimate the probabilistic distribution of climate change on regional scales. Regional models inherit atmospheric circulation uncertainty from global models and do not automatically solve the problem of regional climate change. We conclude that the current priority is to understand and reduce uncertainties on scales greater than 100 km to aid assessments at finer scales.

  19. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watson, Robert T.; Zinyowera, Marufu C.; Moss, Richard H.

    1998-01-01

    The degree to which human conditions and the natural environment are vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change is a key concern for governments and the environmental science community worldwide. This book from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides the best available base of scientific information for policymakers and public use. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health, and other resources for ten global regions. It also illustrates that the increasing costs of climate and climate variability, in terms of loss of human life and capital due to floods, storms, and droughts, are a result of the lack of adjustment and response in society's policies and use of resources. This book points to management options that would make many sectors more resilient to current variability in climate and thus help these sectors adapt to future changes in climate. This book will become the primary source of information on regional aspects of climate change for policymakers, the scientific community, and students.

  20. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watson, Robert T.; Zinyowera, Marufu C.; Moss, Richard H.

    1997-12-01

    The degree to which human conditions and the natural environment are vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change is a key concern for governments and the environmental science community worldwide. This book from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides the best available base of scientific information for policymakers and public use. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health, and other resources for ten global regions. It also illustrates that the increasing costs of climate and climate variability, in terms of loss of human life and capital due to floods, storms, and droughts, are a result of the lack of adjustment and response in society's policies and use of resources. This book points to management options that would make many sectors more resilient to current variability in climate and thus help these sectors adapt to future changes in climate. This book will become the primary source of information on regional aspects of climate change for policymakers, the scientific community, and students.

  1. Great plains regional climate assessment technical report

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Great Plains region (GP) plays important role in providing food and energy to the economy of the United States. Multiple climatic and non-climatic stressors put multiple sectors, livelihoods and communities at risk, including agriculture, water, ecosystems and rural and tribal communities. The G...

  2. Climate change signal over Northern Adriatic Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zampieri, M.; Lionello, P.; Nikulin, G.

    2009-04-01

    In this study we collect the results of several regional climate models from various projects (PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES, and others). Temperature, precipitation, Sea Level Pressure, 500hPa geopotential height and wind speed are analyzed for Venetia and the Northern Adriatic region. The agreement among models is analyzed for the control runs and for the scenario simulations, and the dispersion among models is evaluated. The importance of resolutions is addressed as well as the changes of climate extremes in future scenarios.

  3. One regional ARM guide for climatic evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, R.M.

    1990-04-01

    One of the early tasks of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Program is to provide climatic guides for site selection purposes including possible continental, regional, local and on-site locations. The first guide ``A Preliminary ARM Guide for Climatic Evaluations`` provided some climate data on a continental scale; this one is an attempt to show the variability that exists over a region. Kansas was chosen for this particular guide because it satisfies most of the requirements given in the ARM Program Plan, i.e., climatic significance, potential for synergism with other programs and scientific and logistical viability. Kansas has extreme climatic variations, is centrally located, is compatible with other large scale programs (Fife), has good airfields and accommodations to minimize time and effort in planning and operating an ARM site for continuous use and special campaigns.

  4. One regional ARM guide for climatic evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, R.M.

    1990-04-01

    One of the early tasks of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Program is to provide climatic guides for site selection purposes including possible continental, regional, local and on-site locations. The first guide A Preliminary ARM Guide for Climatic Evaluations'' provided some climate data on a continental scale; this one is an attempt to show the variability that exists over a region. Kansas was chosen for this particular guide because it satisfies most of the requirements given in the ARM Program Plan, i.e., climatic significance, potential for synergism with other programs and scientific and logistical viability. Kansas has extreme climatic variations, is centrally located, is compatible with other large scale programs (Fife), has good airfields and accommodations to minimize time and effort in planning and operating an ARM site for continuous use and special campaigns.

  5. HOW WILL GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT PARASITES?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    : Parasites are integral components of complex biotic assemblages that comprise the biosphere. Host switching correlated with episodic climate-change events are common in evolutionary and ecological time. Global climate change produces ecological perturbation, manifested in major geographical/pheno...

  6. CLIMATE IMPACTS ON REGIONAL WATER

    EPA Science Inventory

    The New England region (including the 6 New England
    states plus upstate New York) offers a very diverse geography,
    matched by an equally diverse economy and human
    population. Livelihoods throughout the region are based
    on service industries that depend heavily on comm...

  7. Regional Climate Change Impacts in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayhoe, K.; Burkett, V.; Grimm, N.; McCarthy, J.; Miles, E.; Overpeck, J.; Shea, E.; Wuebbles, D.

    2009-05-01

    Climate change will affect one region differently from another. For that reason, the U.S. Unified Synthesis Product "Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States" broke down its assessment of climate change impacts on the country into 8 regions. Key highlights include: In the Northeast, agricultural production, including dairy, fruit, and maple syrup, will be increasingly affected as favorable climates shift northward. In the Southeast, accelerated sea-level rise and increased hurricane intensity will have serious impacts. In the Midwest, under higher emissions scenarios, significant reductions in Great Lakes water levels will impact shipping, infrastructure, beaches, and ecosystems. In the Great Plains, projected increases in temperature, evaporation, and drought frequency exacerbate concerns regarding the region's declining water resources. In the Southwest, water supplies will become increasingly scarce, calling for trade-offs among competing uses, and potentially leading to conflict. In the Northwest, salmon and other cold-water species will experience additional stresses as a result of rising water temperatures and declining summer streamflows. In Alaska, thawing permafrost damages roads, runways, water and sewer systems, and other infrastructure. And in the U.S. islands in the Caribbean and Pacific, climate changes affecting coastal and marine ecosystems will have major implications for tourism and fisheries. In addition, significant sea-level rise and storm surge will affect coastal cities and ecosystems around the nation; low-lying and subsiding areas are most vulnerable.

  8. Regional Scale Analyses of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolfe, D. W.; Hayhoe, K.

    2006-12-01

    New statistically downscaled climate modeling techniques provide an opportunity for improved regional analysis of climate change impacts on agriculture. Climate modeling outputs can often simultaneously meet the needs of those studying impacts on natural as well as managed ecosystems. Climate outputs can be used to drive existing forest or crop models, or livestock models (e.g., temperature-humidity index model predicting dairy milk production) for improved information on regional impact. High spatial resolution climate forecasts, combined with knowledge of seasonal temperatures or rainfall constraining species ranges, can be used to predict shifts in suitable habitat for invasive weeds, insects, and pathogens, as well as cash crops. Examples of climate thresholds affecting species range and species composition include: minimum winter temperature, duration of winter chilling (vernalization) hours (e.g., hours below 7.2 C), frost-free period, and frequency of high temperature stress days in summer. High resolution climate outputs can also be used to drive existing integrated pest management models predicting crop insect and disease pressure. Collectively, these analyses can be used to test hypotheses or provide insight into the impact of future climate change scenarios on species range shifts and threat from invasives, shifts in crop production zones, and timing and regional variation in economic impacts.

  9. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    PubMed Central

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652

  10. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies.

    PubMed

    Pierce, David W; Barnett, Tim P; Santer, Benjamin D; Gleckler, Peter J

    2009-05-26

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures.

  11. CARICOF - The Caribbean Regional Climate Outlook Forum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Meerbeeck, Cedric

    2013-04-01

    Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) are viewed as a critical building block in the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The GFCS seeks to extend RCOFs to all vulnerable regions of the world such as the Caribbean, of which the entire population is exposed to water- and heat-related natural hazards. An RCOF is initially intended to identify gaps in information and technical capability; facilitate research cooperation and data exchange within and between regions, and improve coordination within the climate forecasting community. A focus is given on variations in climate conditions on a seasonal timescale. In this view, the relevance of a Caribbean RCOF (CARICOF) is the following: while the seasonality of the climate in the Caribbean has been well documented, major gaps in knowledge exist in terms of the drivers in the shifts of amplitude and phase of seasons (as evidenced from the worst region-wide drought period in recent history during 2009-2010). To address those gaps, CARICOF has brought together National Weather Services (NWSs) from 18 territories under the coordination of the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), to produce region-wide, consensus, seasonal climate outlooks since March 2012. These outlooks include tercile rainfall forecasts, sea and air surface temperature forecasts as well as the likely evolution of the drivers of seasonal climate variability in the region, being amongst others the El Niño Southern Oscillation or tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea temperatures. Forecasts for both the national-scale forecasts made by the NWSs and CIMH's regional-scale forecast amalgamate output from several forecasting tools. These currently include: (1) statistical models such as Canonical Correlation Analysis run with the Climate Predictability Tool, providing tercile rainfall forecasts at weather station scale; (2) a global outlooks published by the WMO appointed Global Producing

  12. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change

    PubMed Central

    Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D.; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-01-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future. PMID:24344275

  13. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change.

    PubMed

    Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-03-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future.

  14. Large Ensembles of Regional Climate Projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massey, Neil; Allen, Myles; Hall, Jim

    2016-04-01

    Projections of regional climate change have great utility for impact assessment at a local scale. The CORDEX climate projection framework presents a method of providing these regional projections by driving a regional climate model (RCM) with output from CMIP5 climate projection runs of global climate models (GCM). This produces an ensemble of regional climate projections, sampling the model uncertainty, the forcing uncertainty and the uncertainty of the response of the climate system to the increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Using the weather@home project to compute large ensembles of RCMs via volunteer distributed computing presents another method of generating projections of climate variables and also allows the sampling of the uncertainty due to internal variability. weather@home runs both a RCM and GCM on volunteer's home computers, with the free-running GCM driving the boundaries of the RCM. The GCM is an atmosphere only model and requires forcing at the lower boundary with sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice concentration (SIC) data. By constructing SST and SIC projections, using projections of GHG and other atmospheric gases, and running the weather@home RCM and GCM with these forcings, large ensembles of projections of climate variables at regional scales can be made. To construct the SSTs and SICs, a statistical model is built to represent the response of SST and SIC to increases in GHG concentrations in the CMIP5 ensemble, for both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. This statistical model uses empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) to represent the change in the long term trend of SSTs in the CMIP5 projections. A multivariate distribution of the leading principle components (PC) is produced using a copula and sampled to produce a timeseries of PCs which are recombined with the EOFs to generate a timeseries of SSTs, with internal variability added from observations. Hence, a large ensemble of SST projections is generated, with each SST

  15. A coupled regional climate-biosphere model for climate studies

    SciTech Connect

    Bossert, J.; Winterkamp, J.; Barnes, F.; Roads, J.

    1996-04-01

    This is the final report of a three-year, Laboratory-Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The objective of this project has been to develop and test a regional climate modeling system that couples a limited-area atmospheric code to a biosphere scheme that properly represents surface processes. The development phase has included investigations of the impact of variations in surface forcing parameters, meteorological input data resolution, and model grid resolution. The testing phase has included a multi-year simulation of the summer climate over the Southwest United States at higher resolution than previous studies. Averaged results from a nine summer month simulation demonstrate the capability of the regional climate model to produce a representative climatology of the Southwest. The results also show the importance of strong summertime thermal forcing of the surface in defining this climatology. These simulations allow us to observe the climate at much higher temporal and spatial resolutions than existing observational networks. The model also allows us to see the full three-dimensional state of the climate and thereby deduce the dominant physical processes at any particular time.

  16. Brazil's sugarcane boom could affect regional temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2013-04-01

    With the world seeking to cut its dependence on fossil fuels, the use of bioethanol and other biofuels is on the rise. In Brazil, the second largest producer and consumer of bioethanol, this has led to a boom in sugarcane production. Based on new laws and trade agreements, researchers expect Brazil's production of sugarcane-derived ethanol to increase tenfold over the next decade, with considerable land being converted for growing sugarcane. Much of this expansion is expected to come at a loss of some of the country's cerrado savannas. So while a major aim of the turn to biofuels is to reduce the transfer of carbon to the atmosphere and mitigate global climate change, the shifting agricultural activity could have direct consequences on Brazil's climate by changing the region's physical and biogeochemical properties.

  17. Direct and Indirect ENSO Influences on Regional Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Renguang

    2016-04-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the strongest signals in the tropics and imposes large influences on climate in many regions, such as the Indian summer monsoon, central American precipitation, and the South China Sea precipitation. ENSO affects regional climate variability both directly and indirectly. The direct influence is through concurrent atmospheric circulation response to anomalous heating associated with equatorial central and eastern Pacific SST anomalies. The indirect influence is by first inducing regional SST anomalies through the so-called "atmospheric bridge" and then atmospheric circulation response to the regional SST anomalies. Previous studies are either focused on the direct influence of ENSO via concurrent atmospheric change or the indirect influence of ENSO via regional SST anomalies. In this talk, the presenter will distinguish the direct and indirect influences of ENSO and demonstrate how the two types of influences may play together in leading to regional climate variability. Summer climate anomalies in three regions will be used for illustration: the Indian summer monsoon, central American summer precipitation, and the South China Sea summer precipitation.

  18. Regional climate change and national responsibilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko

    2016-03-01

    Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the ‘bell curve’ defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.

  19. The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM: a review.

    PubMed

    Rummukainen, Markku; Bergström, Sten; Persson, Gunn; Rodhe, Johan; Tjernström, Michael

    2004-06-01

    The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM, was a 6.5-year national research network for regional climate modeling, regional climate change projections and hydrological impact assessment and information to a wide range of stakeholders. Most of the program activities focussed on the regional climate system of Northern Europe. This led to the establishment of an advanced, coupled atmosphere-ocean-hydrology regional climate model system, a suite of regional climate change projections and progress on relevant data and process studies. These were, in turn, used for information and educational purposes, as a starting point for impact analyses on different societal sectors and provided contributions also to international climate research. PMID:15264594

  20. Weather anomalies affect Climate Change microblogging intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.

    2012-12-01

    There is a huge gap between the scientific consensus and public understanding of climate change. Climate change has become a political issue and a "hot" topic in mass media that only adds the complexity to forming the public opinion. Scientists operate in scientific terms, not necessarily understandable by general public, while it is common for people to perceive the latest weather anomaly as an evidence of climate change. In 1998 Hansen et al. introduced a concept of an objectively measured subjective climate change indicator, which can relate public feeling that the climate is changing to the observed meteorological parameters. We tested this concept in a simple example of a temperature-based index, which we related to microblogging activity. Microblogging is a new form of communication in which the users describe their current status in short Internet messages. Twitter (http://twitter.com), is currently the most popular microblogging platform. There are multiple reasons, why this data is particularly valuable to the researches interested in social dynamics: microblogging is widely used to publicize one's opinion with the public; has broad, diverse audience, represented by users from many countries speaking different languages; finally, Twitter contains an enormous number of data, e.g., there were 1,284,579 messages related to climate change from 585,168 users in the January-May data collection. We collected the textual data entries, containing words "climate change" or "global warming" from the 1st of January, 2012. The data was retrieved from the Internet every 20 minutes using a specially developed Python code. Using geolocational information, blog entries originating from the New York urbanized area were selected. These entries, used as a source of public opinion on climate change, were related to the surface temperature, obtained from La Guardia airport meteorological station. We defined the "significant change" in the temperature index as deviation of the

  1. Detection and Attribution of Regional Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Bala, G; Mirin, A

    2007-01-19

    We developed a high resolution global coupled modeling capability to perform breakthrough studies of the regional climate change. The atmospheric component in our simulation uses a 1{sup o} latitude x 1.25{sup o} longitude grid which is the finest resolution ever used for the NCAR coupled climate model CCSM3. Substantial testing and slight retuning was required to get an acceptable control simulation. The major accomplishment is the validation of this new high resolution configuration of CCSM3. There are major improvements in our simulation of the surface wind stress and sea ice thickness distribution in the Arctic. Surface wind stress and ocean circulation in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are also improved. Our results demonstrate that the FV version of the CCSM coupled model is a state of the art climate model whose simulation capabilities are in the class of those used for IPCC assessments. We have also provided 1000 years of model data to Scripps Institution of Oceanography to estimate the natural variability of stream flow in California. In the future, our global model simulations will provide boundary data to high-resolution mesoscale model that will be used at LLNL. The mesoscale model would dynamically downscale the GCM climate to regional scale on climate time scales.

  2. Simulating Regional Climate Change in New Hampshire

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komurcu, M.; Acosta, R. P.; Huber, M.

    2014-12-01

    Dynamical downscaling of Global Climate Model (GCM) simulated future projections using smaller scale, higher resolution models is widely used to assess the regional impacts of climate change on weather, ecosystems and economy. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to dynamically downscale Community Earth System Model (CESM) future projections using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 to simulate the possible effects of climate change in New Hampshire (NH). The first step to ensure that the downscaled model output is representative of the NH region is to find the correct WRF model set up for the region. This task is accomplished using CESM simulations of the historical period as forcing for WRF simulations and performing multiple sensitivity tests with different options for WRF physics parameterizations such as boundary layer, cloud microphysics and convection parameterizations. Simulated precipitation, temperature and other variables are compared with observations to obtain the more suitable model setup for NH. WRF simulations are performed on nested grids with 36, 12 and 4 km grid spacing, and the smallest grid sized nest is focused over NH. Furthermore, to prevent the drift of regional model from global model simulated climatology, WRF is reinitialized from GCM output every five days. Previous studies have shown that future regional climate model predictions of precipitation and snow water equivalent depend on the re-initialization interval of WRF from GCM forcing specifically over the western U.S, where topography is high. This problem is mainly because re-initialization erases the simulated memory for certain variables such as soil moisture. To evaluate whether re-initialization time-scale is also important in the Eastern US, in this study, the effects of 5-daily versus monthly re-initialization of WRF using CESM output on model simulated precipitation are also investigated. The obtained WRF model setup is

  3. The Three Gorges Dam Affects Regional Precipitation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Liguang; Zhang, Qiang; Jiang, Zhihong

    2006-01-01

    Issues regarding building large-scale dams as a solution to power generation and flood control problems have been widely discussed by both natural and social scientists from various disciplines, as well as the policy-makers and public. Since the Chinese government officially approved the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) projects, this largest hydroelectric project in the world has drawn a lot of debates ranging from its social and economic to climatic impacts. The TGD has been partially in use since June 2003. The impact of the TGD is examined through analysis of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall rate and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature and high-resolution simulation using the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR) fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). The independent satellite data sets and numerical simulation clearly indicate that the land use change associated with the TGD construction has increased the precipitation in the region between Daba and Qinling mountains and reduced the precipitation in the vicinity of the TGD after the TGD water level abruptly rose from 66 to 135 m in June 2003. This study suggests that the climatic effect of the TGD is on the regional scale (approx.100 km) rather than on the local scale (approx.10 km) as projected in previous studies.

  4. Satellite-based climate information within the WMO RA VI Regional Climate Centre on Climate Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obregón, A.; Nitsche, H.; Körber, M.; Kreis, A.; Bissolli, P.; Friedrich, K.; Rösner, S.

    2014-05-01

    The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) established Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) around the world to create science-based climate information on a regional scale within the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). The paper introduces the satellite component of the WMO Regional Climate Centre on Climate Monitoring (RCC-CM) for Europe and the Middle East. The RCC-CM product portfolio is based on essential climate variables (ECVs) as defined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), spanning the atmospheric (radiation, clouds, water vapour) and terrestrial domains (snow cover, soil moisture). In the first part, the input data sets are briefly described, which are provided by the EUMETSAT (European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites) Satellite Application Facilities (SAF), in particular CM SAF, and by the ESA (European Space Agency) Climate Change Initiative (CCI). In the second part, the derived RCC-CM products are presented, which are divided into two groups: (i) operational monitoring products (e.g. monthly means and anomalies) based on near-real-time environmental data records (EDRs) and (ii) climate information records (e.g. climatologies, time series, trend maps) based on long-term thematic climate data records (TCDRs) with adequate stability, accuracy and homogeneity. The products are provided as maps, statistical plots and gridded data, which are made available through the RCC-CM website (www.dwd.de/rcc-cm).

  5. Climatic Effects of Regional Nuclear War

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oman, Luke D.

    2011-01-01

    We use a modern climate model and new estimates of smoke generated by fires in contemporary cities to calculate the response of the climate system to a regional nuclear war between emerging third world nuclear powers using 100 Hiroshima-size bombs (less than 0.03% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal) on cities in the subtropics. We find significant cooling and reductions of precipitation lasting years, which would impact the global food supply. The climate changes are large and longlasting because the fuel loadings in modern cities are quite high and the subtropical solar insolation heats the resulting smoke cloud and lofts it into the high stratosphere, where removal mechanisms are slow. While the climate changes are less dramatic than found in previous "nuclear winter" simulations of a massive nuclear exchange between the superpowers, because less smoke is emitted, the changes seem to be more persistent because of improvements in representing aerosol processes and microphysical/dynamical interactions, including radiative heating effects, in newer global climate system models. The assumptions and calculations that go into these conclusions will be described.

  6. Climate Change Projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)

    SciTech Connect

    Mearns, L. O.; Sain, Steve; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; McGinnis, Seth; Biner, S.; Caya, Daniel; Arritt, R.; Gutowski, William; Takle, Eugene S.; Snyder, Mark A.; Jones, Richard; Nunes, A M B.; Tucker, S.; Herzmann, D.; McDaniel, Larry; Sloan, Lisa

    2013-10-01

    We investigate major results of the NARCCAP multiple regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by multiple global climate models (GCMs) regarding climate change for seasonal temperature and precipitation over North America. We focus on two major questions: How do the RCM simulated climate changes differ from those of the parent GCMs and thus affect our perception of climate change over North America, and how important are the relative contributions of RCMs and GCMs to the uncertainty (variance explained) for different seasons and variables? The RCMs tend to produce stronger climate changes for precipitation: larger increases in the northern part of the domain in winter and greater decreases across a swath of the central part in summer, compared to the four GCMs driving the regional models as well as to the full set of CMIP3 GCM results. We pose some possible process-level mechanisms for the difference in intensity of change, particularly for summer. Detailed process-level studies will be necessary to establish mechanisms and credibility of these results. The GCMs explain more variance for winter temperature and the RCMs for summer temperature. The same is true for precipitation patterns. Thus, we recommend that future RCM-GCM experiments over this region include a balanced number of GCMs and RCMs.

  7. Providing Western Regional Climate Services - Perspectives from the Western Regional Climate Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, T. J.; Redmond, K. T.

    2014-12-01

    The western United States faces distinct challenges such as persistent drought, dwindling water resources amidst an expanding population, and climate-sensitive alpine environments. The complex terrain of the region compounds these challenges. The Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC), one of six National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) university-based regional climate centers, has been providing climate services since 1986 that support the unique needs of stakeholders in the mountainous region of the western U.S. This includes meteorological data, tools, and products for thousands of stations across the West, and gridded data products, such as based on PRISM for example, that are used for drought assessment among other needs. WRCC and partners have developed numerous web-based tools and products to support decision-making and research pertinent to the West. Changing climate and variability along with the diverse physical and human geographies of the western U.S. require continuous advancements in climate knowledge and applications development. Examples include the need for tools and model downscaling that support and inform adaptation, mitigation and resiliency planning; web-based analytics that would allow users to interact and explore temporal and spatial data and relationships, and products from new satellite sensors that can provide higher resolution information on soil moisture and vegetation health given the sparseness of in-situ observations for the vastness of the West. This presentation provides an overview of some insights, opportunities and challenges of providing current and future climate services in the West.

  8. How does spatial variability of climate affect catchment streamflow predictions?

    EPA Science Inventory

    Spatial variability of climate can negatively affect catchment streamflow predictions if it is not explicitly accounted for in hydrologic models. In this paper, we examine the changes in streamflow predictability when a hydrologic model is run with spatially variable (distribute...

  9. Studies of dynamical processes affecting global climate

    SciTech Connect

    Keller, C.; Cooper, D.; Eichinger, W.

    1998-12-31

    This is the final report of a three-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The main objective was, by a combined theoretical and observational approach, to develop improved models of dynamic processes in the oceans and atmosphere and to incorporate them into large climate codes, chiefly in four main areas: numerical physics, chemistry, water vapor, and ocean-atmosphere interactions. Main areas of investigation included studies of: cloud parameterizations for global climate codes, Lidar and the planetary boundary layer, chemistry, climate variability using coupled ocean-atmospheric models, and numerical physical methods. This project employed a unique approach that included participation of a number of University of California faculty, postdoctoral fellows and graduate students who collaborated with Los Alamos research staff on specific tasks, thus greatly enhancing the research output. Overall accomplishments during the sensing of the atmospheric planetary were: (1) first two- and three-dimensional remote sensing of the atmospheric planetary boundary layer using Lidars, (2) modeling of 20-year cycle in both pressure and sea surface temperatures in North Pacific, (3) modeling of low frequency internal variability, (4) addition of aerosols to stratosphere to simulate Pinatubo effect on ozone, (5) development of fast, comprehensive chemistry in the troposphere for urban pollution studies, (6) new prognostic cloud parameterization in global atmospheric code remedied problems with North Pacific atmospheric circulation and excessive equatorial precipitation, (7) development of a unique aerosol analysis technique, the aerosol time-of-flight mass spectrometer (ATOFMS), which allows real-time analysis of the size and chemical composition of individual aerosol particles, and (8) numerical physics applying Approximate Inertial Manifolds to ocean circulation. 14 refs., 6 figs.

  10. Objective calibration of regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bellprat, O.; Kotlarski, S.; Lüthi, D.; SchäR, C.

    2012-12-01

    Climate models are subject to high parametric uncertainty induced by poorly confined model parameters of parameterized physical processes. Uncertain model parameters are typically calibrated in order to increase the agreement of the model with available observations. The common practice is to adjust uncertain model parameters manually, often referred to as expert tuning, which lacks objectivity and transparency in the use of observations. These shortcomings often haze model inter-comparisons and hinder the implementation of new model parameterizations. Methods which would allow to systematically calibrate model parameters are unfortunately often not applicable to state-of-the-art climate models, due to computational constraints facing the high dimensionality and non-linearity of the problem. Here we present an approach to objectively calibrate a regional climate model, using reanalysis driven simulations and building upon a quadratic metamodel presented by Neelin et al. (2010) that serves as a computationally cheap surrogate of the model. Five model parameters originating from different parameterizations are selected for the optimization according to their influence on the model performance. The metamodel accurately estimates spatial averages of 2 m temperature, precipitation and total cloud cover, with an uncertainty of similar magnitude as the internal variability of the regional climate model. The non-linearities of the parameter perturbations are well captured, such that only a limited number of 20-50 simulations are needed to estimate optimal parameter settings. Parameter interactions are small, which allows to further reduce the number of simulations. In comparison to an ensemble of the same model which has undergone expert tuning, the calibration yields similar optimal model configurations, but leading to an additional reduction of the model error. The performance range captured is much wider than sampled with the expert-tuned ensemble and the presented

  11. Impact of Asia Dust Aerosols on Regional Environment and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, J.

    2015-12-01

    East Asia is a major dust source in the world and has great impacts on regional climate in Asia, where the large arid and semi-arid regions are. In this study, the typical transport paths of East Asia dust, which affect regional and global climates, are demonstrated and numerous effects of dust aerosols on clouds and precipitation primarily over East Asian arid and semi-arid regions are discussed. Compared with the dust aerosols of Saharan, those of East Asian are more absorptive of solar radiation, and can influence the cloud properties not only by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei but also through changing the relative humidity and stability of the atmosphere (via semi-direct effect). Converting visible light to thermal energy, dust aerosols can burn clouds to produce a warming effect on climate, which is opposite to the first and second indirect effects of aerosols. Over Asia arid and semi-arid regions, the positive feedback in the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction may aggravate drought in its inner land. Impact of Asia dust on regional environment, especially on haze weather, are also presented in this talk.

  12. Regional climate projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

    2014-12-01

    Given that warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC AR5), accurate assessment of future climate is essential to understand the impact of climate change due to global warming. Modelling the climate change of the Maritime Continent is particularly challenge, showing a high degree of uncertainty. Compared to other regions, model agreement of future projections in response to anthropogenic emission forcings is much less. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal behaviors of climate projections seem to vary significantly due to a complex geographical condition and a wide range of scale interactions. For the fine-scale climate information (27 km) suitable for representing the complexity of climate change over the Maritime Continent, dynamical downscaling is performed using the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) during two thirty-year period for reference (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate. Initial and boundary conditions are provided by Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations under the emission scenarios projected by MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales. Our analysis is primarily centered on the different behavior of changes in convective and large-scale precipitation over land vs. ocean during dry vs. wet season. In addition, we attempt to find the added value to downscaled results over the Maritime Continent through the comparison between MRCM and CESM projection. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

  13. Regional Climate Change Projections over Northeast Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cassain Sales, Domingo; Araújo Costa, Alexandre; Mariano da Silva, Emerson; Cavalcante, Arnóbio M. B.; das Chagas Vasconcelos Júnior, Francisco; Martins de Araújo Junior, Luiz; Oliveira Guimarães, Sullyandro

    2013-04-01

    Climate change and climate change impact studies often require a spatial resolution beyond the horizontal grid spacing of the data generated by Global Climate Models (GCMs). Dynamical Downscaling is one of techniques that allow regionalization of information from such models, in which the GCM data drive a Regional Climate Model (RCM) that in turn, at least theoretically, presents the climatological fields in more detail and can add value to climatic analysis. In this context, CORDEX is a coordinated experiment that standardizes dynamical downscaling simulations over continental regions, to provide a contribution from the regional climate modeling community to the IPCC/AR5 and beyond. Because computer resources are limited, a modeling group involved in CORDEX typically chooses one or few of the suggested domains, and use one or a few CMIP5 GCM data to drive its regional model. At the State University of Ceará (UECE), in Brazil, we used RAMS6.0 (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System Version 6.0), driven by HadGEM2-ES (Hadley Centre Global Enviroment Model Version 2 - Earth System) data, over a extended CORDEX Central America domain (longitude: 124.5W to 24.5W, latitude: 33.5N to 17.5S). This work presents the evaluation of climatological features of precipitation and temperature over Northeast Brazil region (longitude: 47W to 34.5W, latitude: 2.5S to 17.5S) for 20 years of the historical period (1985-2005) evaluating short-term (2015-2035), mid-term (2045-2065) and long-term (2079-2099) changes, under the RCP4.5 e RCP8.5 scenarios. For the historical period, the results were compared against several observed data sets, in order to evaluate the performance of RAMS6.0 nested to HadGEM2-ES. The correlation between the simulated and observed annual cycle of precipitation is high (above 0.93). RAMS6.0 shows a wet bias of 0.706 mm/day that is larger than HadGEM2-ES bias (0.197 mm/day), however the regional model corrects the month of maximum precipitation (the global model

  14. Challenging some tenets of Regional Climate Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laprise, R.; de Elía, R.; Caya, D.; Biner, S.; Lucas-Picher, P.; Diaconescu, E.; Leduc, M.; Alexandru, A.; Separovic, L.

    2008-08-01

    Nested Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are increasingly used for climate-change projections in order to achieve spatial resolutions that would be computationally prohibitive with coupled global climate models. RCMs are commonly thought to behave as a sort of sophisticated magnifying glass to perform dynamical downscaling, which is to add fine-scale details upon the large-scale flow provided as time-dependent lateral boundary condition. Regional climate modelling is a relatively new approach, initiated less than twenty years ago. The interest for the approach has grown rapidly as it offers a computationally affordable means of entering into appealing applications of timely societal relevance, such as high-resolution climate-change projections and seasonal prediction. There exists however a need for basic research aiming at establishing firmly the strengths and limitations of the technique. This paper synthesises the results of a stream of investigations on the merits and weaknesses of the nested approach, initiated almost a decade ago by some members of our team. This short paper revisits some commonly accepted notions amongst practitioners of Regional Climate Modelling, in the form of four tenets that will be challenged: (1) RCMs are capable of generating small-scale features absent in the driving fields supplied as lateral boundary conditions; (2) The generated small scales have the appropriate amplitudes and statistics; (3) The generated small scales accurately represent those that would be present in the driving data if it were not limited by resolution; (4) In performing dynamical downscaling, RCMs operate as a kind of sophisticated magnifying glass, in the sense that the small scales that are generated are uniquely defined for a given set of lateral boundary conditions (LBC). From the partial failure of the last two tenets emerges the notion of internal variability, which has often been thought to be negligible in one-way nested models due to the control

  15. ClimateImpactsOnline: A web platform for regional climate impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nocke, Thomas

    2013-04-01

    Climate change is widely known but there is often uncertainty about the specific effects. One of the key tasks is - beyond discussing climate change and its impacts in specialist groups - to present these to a wider audience. In that respect, decision-makers in the public sector as well as directly affected professional groups require to obtain easy-to-understand information. These groups are not made up of specialist scientists. This gives rise to two challenges: (1) the complex information must be presented such that it is commonly understood, and (2) access to the information must be easy. Interested parties do not have time to familiarize themselves over a lengthy period, but rather want to immediately work with the information. Beside providing climate information globally, regional information become of increasing interest for local decision making regarding awareness building and adaptation options. In addition, current web portals mainly focus on climate information, considering climate impacts on different sectors only implicitly. As solution, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and WetterOnline have jointly developed an Internet portal that is easy to use, groups together interesting information about climate impacts and offers it in a directly usable form. This new web portal ClimateImpactsOnline.com provides detailed information, combining multiple sectors for the test case of Germany. For this region, numerous individual studies on climate change have been prepared by various institutions. These studies differ in terms of their aim, region and time period of interest. Thus, the goal of ClimateImpactsOnline.com is to present a synthesized view on regional impacts of global climate change on hydrology, agriculture, forest, energy, tourism and health sector. The climate and impact variables are available on a decadal time resolution for the period from 1901-2100, combining observed data and future projections. Detailed information are presented

  16. Regional climate change in the Northern Adriatic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zampieri, M.; Giorgi, F.; Lionello, P.; Nikulin, G.

    An analysis of the climate change signal for seasonal temperature and precipitation over the Northern Adriatic region is presented here. We collected 43 regional climate simulations covering the target area, including experiments produced in the context of the PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES projects, and additional experiments produced by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. The ability of the models to simulate the present climate in terms of mean and interannual variability is discussed and the insufficient reproduction of some features, such as the intensity of summer precipitation, are shown. The contribution to the variance associated with the intermodel spread is computed. The changes of mean and interannual variability are analyzed for the period 2071-2100 in the PRUDENCE runs (A2 scenario) and the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 (A1B scenario) for the other runs. Ensemble results show a major warming at the end of the 21st century. Warming will be larger in the A2 scenario (about 5.5 K in summer and 4 K in winter) than in the A1B. Precipitation is projected to increase in winter and decrease in summer by 20% (+0.5 mm/day and -1 mm/day over the Alps, respectively). The climate change signal for scenario A1B in the period 2021-2050 is significant for temperature, but not yet for precipitation. In summer, interannual variability is projected to increase for temperature and for precipitation. Winter interannual variability change is different among scenarios. A reduction of precipitation is found for A2, while for A1B a reduction of temperature interannual variability is observed.

  17. Climate impacts on northern Canada: regional background.

    PubMed

    Prowse, Terry D; Furgal, Chris; Bonsal, Barrie R; Peters, Daniel L

    2009-07-01

    Understanding the implications of climate change on northern Canada requires a background about the size and diversity of its human and biogeophysical systems. Occupying an area of almost 40% of Canada, with one-third of this contained in Arctic islands, Canada's northern territories consist of a diversity of physical environments unrivaled around the circumpolar north. Major ecozones composed of a range of landforms, climate, vegetation, and wildlife include: Arctic, boreal and taiga cordillera; boreal and taiga plains; taiga shield; and northern and southern Arctic. Although generally characterized by a cold climate, there is an enormous range in air temperature with mean annual values being as high as -5 degrees C in the south to as low as -20 degrees C in the high Arctic islands. A similar contrast characterizes precipitation, which can be > 700 mm y(-1) in some southern alpine regions to as low as 50 mm y(-1) over islands of the high Arctic. Major freshwater resources are found within most northern ecozones, varying from large glaciers or ice caps and lakes to extensive wetlands and peat lands. Most of the North's renewable water, however, is found within its major river networks and originates in more southerly headwaters. Ice covers characterize the freshwater systems for multiple months of the year while permafrost prevails in various forms, dominating the terrestrial landscape. The marine environment, which envelops the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, is dominated by seasonal to multiyear sea ice often several meters thick that plays a key role in the regional climate. Almost two-thirds of northern Canadian communities are located along coastlines with the entire population being just over 100 000. Most recent population growth has been dominated by an expansion of nonaboriginals, primarily the result of resource development and the growth of public administration. The economies of northern communities, however, remain quite mixed with traditional land

  18. Climate impacts on northern Canada: regional background.

    PubMed

    Prowse, Terry D; Furgal, Chris; Bonsal, Barrie R; Peters, Daniel L

    2009-07-01

    Understanding the implications of climate change on northern Canada requires a background about the size and diversity of its human and biogeophysical systems. Occupying an area of almost 40% of Canada, with one-third of this contained in Arctic islands, Canada's northern territories consist of a diversity of physical environments unrivaled around the circumpolar north. Major ecozones composed of a range of landforms, climate, vegetation, and wildlife include: Arctic, boreal and taiga cordillera; boreal and taiga plains; taiga shield; and northern and southern Arctic. Although generally characterized by a cold climate, there is an enormous range in air temperature with mean annual values being as high as -5 degrees C in the south to as low as -20 degrees C in the high Arctic islands. A similar contrast characterizes precipitation, which can be > 700 mm y(-1) in some southern alpine regions to as low as 50 mm y(-1) over islands of the high Arctic. Major freshwater resources are found within most northern ecozones, varying from large glaciers or ice caps and lakes to extensive wetlands and peat lands. Most of the North's renewable water, however, is found within its major river networks and originates in more southerly headwaters. Ice covers characterize the freshwater systems for multiple months of the year while permafrost prevails in various forms, dominating the terrestrial landscape. The marine environment, which envelops the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, is dominated by seasonal to multiyear sea ice often several meters thick that plays a key role in the regional climate. Almost two-thirds of northern Canadian communities are located along coastlines with the entire population being just over 100 000. Most recent population growth has been dominated by an expansion of nonaboriginals, primarily the result of resource development and the growth of public administration. The economies of northern communities, however, remain quite mixed with traditional land

  19. Influence of Regional Climate Model spatial resolution on wind climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pryor, S. C.; Barthelmie, R. J.; Nikulin, G.; Jones, C.

    2010-12-01

    Global and regional climate models are being run at increasingly fine horizontal and vertical resolution with the goal of increased skill. However, relatively few studies have quantified the change in modeled wind climates that derives from applying a Regional Climate Model (RCM) at varying resolutions, and the response to varying resolution may be highly non-linear since most models run in climate mode are hydrostatic. Thus, herein we examine the influence of grid-resolution on modelled wind speeds and gusts and derived extremes thereof over southern Scandinavia using output from the Rossby Centre (RCA3) RCM run at four different resolutions from 50 x 50 km to 6 x 6 km, and with two different vertical grid-spacings. Domain averaged fifty-year return period wind speeds and wind gusts derived using the method of moments approach to compute the Gumbel parameters, increase with resolution (Table 1), though the change is strongly mediated by the model grid-cell surface characteristics. Power spectra of the 3-hourly model time-step ‘instantaneous’ wind speeds and daily wind gusts at all four resolutions show clear peaks in the variance associated with bi-annual, annual, seasonal and synoptic frequencies. The variance associated with these peaks is enhanced with increased resolution, though not in a monotonic fashion, and is more marked in wind gusts than wind speeds. Relative to in situ observations, the model generally underestimates the variance, particularly associated with the synoptic time scale, even for the highest resolution simulations. There is some evidence to suggest that the change in the power spectra with horizontal resolution is less marked in the transition from 12.5 km to 6.25 km, than from 50 to 25 km, or 25 km to 12.5 km.Table 1. Domain averaged mean annual wind speed (U), 50-year return period extreme wind speed (U50yr) and wind gust (Gust50yr) (m/s) from the four RCA3 simulations at different resolution based on output from 1987-2008. The

  20. Regional differences in climate change of the ionosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lastovicka, Jan

    2016-07-01

    The increasing concentration of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide CO2, in the atmosphere affects not only the troposphere and surface climate, it affects the whole atmosphere-ionosphere system and it induces long-term trends and/or climate change in the ionosphere. The geographic distribution of CO2 in the upper atmosphere/ionosphere is relatively homogeneous and the long-term increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is known to be stable. However, there are some other secondary drivers of long-term trends in the upper atmosphere/ionosphere, whose long-term behavior and/or effects either are not spatially homogeneous or are not stable in time (or both). Geomagnetic activity, solar activity, secular change of the Earth's magnetic field, long-term evolution of stratospheric ozone concentration and atmospheric wave activity are such trend drivers. They are responsible for regional differences in trends and also for their temporal non-stability. Regions of strong trends as a consequence of regional differences of trends represent a specific kind of risk from the point of view of space/ionospheric climate. These features of ionospheric trends will briefly be treated in this presentation.

  1. Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gogineni, Sivaprasad; Thomas, Robert H.; Abdalati, Waleed (Editor)

    1999-01-01

    The Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA) is a NASA-sponsored initiative with the prime objective of understanding the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet. In October 1998, PARCA investigators met to review activities of the previous year, assess the program's progress, and plan future investigations directed at accomplishing that objective. Some exciting results were presented and discussed, including evidence of dramatic thinning of the ice sheet near the southeastern coast. Details of the investigations and many of the accomplishments are given in this report, but major highlights are given in the Executive Summary of the report.

  2. Climate Change Affects the East African Rift Valley Lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Reilly, C. M.; Plisnier, P.; Cohen, A. S.

    2004-12-01

    Over the last 100 years, air temperatures in eastern African have been warming consistent with the global average temperature increase. This has led to warmer water temperatures in the East African Rift Valley lakes, increasing the stability of the water column. Subsequently, there has been a reduction in the upwelling of deep nutrient-rich waters that are the primary source of nutrients for most of these lakes. There were decreases in surface water N and P and increases in the Si:P ratio over the past 70 years for Lakes Malawi, Tanganyika, Edward, and Albert. The lower nutrient concentrations in the surface waters were associated with reduced algal biomass and increased water clarity. The consistent, regional-scale changes among these lakes provide strong evidence that climate warming may be having a large negative affect on these unique tropical lakes. A decrease in primary productivity of 20% has been indicated for Lake Tanganyika, which would be associated with a 30% decrease in fisheries yields. The human implications of such subtle, but progressive, environmental changes are potentially dire in this densely populated region of the world, where these large lakes are an important nutritional and economic resource.

  3. A conceptual framework for regional feedbacks in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Batlle Bayer, L.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Strengers, B.

    2012-04-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems and climate influence each other through biogeochemical (e.g. carbon cycle) and biogeophysical (e.g. albedo, water fluxes) processes. These interactions might be disturbed when a climate human-induced forcing takes place (e.g. deforestation); and the ecosystem responses to the climate system might amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the initial forcing. Research on feedbacks has been mainly based on the carbon cycle at the global scale. However, biogeophysical feedbacks might have a great impact at the local or regional scale, which is the main focus of this article. A conceptual framework, with the major interactions and processes between terrestrial ecosystems and climate, is presented to further explore feedbacks at the regional level. Four hot spots with potential changes in land use/management and climate are selected: sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Europe, the Amazon Basin and South and Southeast Asia. For each region, diverse climate human-induced forcings and feedbacks were identified based on relevant published literature. For Europe, the positive soil moisture-evapotranspiration (ET) is important for natural vegetation during a heat wave event, while the positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback plays a more important role for droughts in the Amazon region. Agricultural expansion in SSA will depend on the impacts of the changing climate on crop yields and the adopted agro-technologies. The adoption of irrigation in the commonly rainfed systems might turn the positive soil moisture- ET feedback into a negative one. In contrast, South and Southeast Asia might face water shortage in the future, and thus turning the soil moisture-ET feedback into a positive one. Further research is needed for the major processes that affect the ultimate sign of the feedbacks, as well as for the interactions, which effect remains uncertain, such as ET-precipitation interaction. In addition, socio-economic feedbacks need to be added

  4. Regional climate: Design and analysis of computer experiments?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nychka, D. W.

    2011-12-01

    As attention shifts from broad global summaries of climate change to more specific regional impacts there is a need for data sciences to quantify the uncertainty in regional predictions. This talk will provide an overview on regional climate experiments with an emphasis on the statistical problems for interpreting these large and complex simulations. A regional climate model is a computer code based on physics that simulates the detailed flow of the atmosphere in a particular region from the large scale information of a global climate model. One intent is to compare simulations under current climate to future scenarios to infer the nature of climate change expected at a location. There exists a mature sub-discipline in engineering and statistics on the design and analysis of computer experiments. This talk will sketch how general methods from this area may apply to the interpretation of climate model experiments and to what extent the problems of interpreting climate projections are unique and require new ideas.

  5. Climate programs update: USDA Southwest Regional Climate Hub update

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    PROGRAM OVERVIEW: The overarching goal of the USDA SW Climate Hub is to assist farmers, ranchers and foresters in addressing the effects of climate change including prolonged drought, increased insect outbreaks and severe wildfires. In the first year of operations, the SW Climate Hub (est. Februa...

  6. Climate Dynamics of Regional US Southeastern drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arrigo, J.

    2008-12-01

    The phenomena of droughts both regional and continental have received considerable attention from both science and policy. Understanding the larger scale dynamics of these events is critical to improving predictability, management and mitigation strategies. The history of drought in the United States shows both long (multi-decadal) and short (seasonal or yearly) droughts in various regions. Some of the most severe droughts, such as those with the largest economic losses or that have received the most attention both from the scientific and broader communities have occurred in the Midwest/Great Plains (e.g. the "Dust Bowl" years, the 1988 drought) and generally correlate with continent-wide anomalies. The Southeast region of the US, while generally having a more humid temperature climate than the rest of the country, also is subject to periods of drought conditions. In this study we analyze long term records of PDSI in the southeastern United States. While some occurrences correlate with larger continental scale droughts, many severe southeastern droughts occur during a synoptic pattern correlating with wetter conditions through the greater Midwest, have a seasonal pattern different than larger continental scale anomalies, and show correlations with patterns in Atlantic tropical activity. While winter and spring deficits may initiate a drought, we find a proportionally larger decrease in summertime precipitation during severe drought periods. Some of this decrease may be related to the contribution of tropical systems, which increases in the periods following droughts. We suggest that the dynamics of drought in this region differ from the larger US pattern, and particularly need to account for the interaction between continental and tropical contributions. With an increasing population and areas of high agricultural productivity, we argue this region deserves further attention from both the scientific and larger community, that understanding these dynamics will

  7. Climate Regionalization through Hierarchical Clustering: Options and Recommendations for Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Badr, H. S.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Dezfuli, A. K.

    2014-12-01

    Climate regionalization is an important but often under-emphasized step in studies of climate variability and predictions. While most investigations of regional climate or statistical/dynamical predictions do make at least an implicit attempt to focus on a study region or sub-regions that are climatically coherent in some respect, rigorous climate regionalization--in which the study area is divided on the basis of the most relevant climate metrics and at a resolution most appropriate to the data and the scientific question--has the potential to enhance the precision and explanatory power of climate studies in many cases. This is particularly true for climatically complex regions such as the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) and Equatorial West Africa. Here we present an improved clustering method and a flexible, open-source software tool (R package "HiClimR") designed specifically for climate regionalization. As a demonstration, we apply HiClimR to regionalize the GHA on the basis of interannual precipitation variability in each calendar month and for three-month running seasons. Different clustering methods are tested to show the behavior of each method and provide recommendations for specific problems. This would underscore the applicability of our work to a wide range of climate issues, and enable researchers to easily and quickly learn how to apply our tools to their own problems. Both the proposed methodology and the R package can be easily used for a broad range of climate applications.

  8. A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

    2013-04-01

    Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

  9. A Regional Climate Change Assessment Program for North America

    SciTech Connect

    Mearns, L. O.; Gutowski, William; Jones, Richard; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; McGinnis, Seth; Nunes, A.; Qian, Yun

    2009-09-08

    There are two main uncertainties in determining future climate: the trajectories of future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and the response of the global climate system to any given set of future emissions [Meehl et al., 2007]. These uncertainties normally are elucidated via application of global climate models, which provide information at relatively coarse spatial resolutions. Greater interest in, and concern about, the details of climate change at regional scales has provided the motivation for the application of regional climate models, which introduces additional uncertainty [Christensen et al., 2007a]. These uncertainties in fi ne- scale regional climate responses, in contrast to uncertainties of coarser spatial resolution global models in which regional models are nested, now have been documented in numerous contexts [Christensen et al., 2007a] and have been found to extend to uncertainties in climate impacts [Wood et al., 2004; Oleson et al., 2007]. While European research in future climate projections has moved forward systematically to examine combined uncertainties from global and regional models [Christensen et al., 2007b], North American climate programs have lagged behind. To fi ll this research gap, scientists developed the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (-NARCCAP). The fundamental scientifi c motivation of this international program is to explore separate and combined uncertainties in regional projections of future climate change resulting from the use of multiple atmosphere- ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) to drive multiple regional climate models (RCMs). An equally important, and related, motivation for this program is to provide the climate impacts and adaptation community with high- resolution regional climate change scenarios that can be used for studies of the societal impacts of climate change and possible adaptation strategies.

  10. On the importance for climate science communication - the climate office for polar regions and sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Treffeisen, Renate; Lemke, Peter; Dethloff, Klaus

    2010-05-01

    Climate change presents a major challenge for national and international action and cooperation. A wide variation in the vulnerability is to be expected across different regions, due to regional differences in local environmental conditions, preexisting stresses to ecosystems, current resource-use patterns, and the framework of factors affecting decision-making including government policies, prices, preferences, and values. Thus, considerable regional impact differences will be faced as a result of climate change. Being aware will help to prepare for these inevitable consequences in time. Climate change is nowhere more strongly expressed than in the polar regions which respond to even small changes in climate. Given the major role played by these regions within the Earth's climate system the climate office for polar regions and sea level rise is hosted by the Foundation Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) which conducts research in the Arctic, the Antarctic and at temperate latitudes since 1980. The major goal of the climate office is to encourage the communication and dialogue between science and public. Primarily, this is done by the unique close contact and cooperation to the research center scientists. A continuous exchange is supported beyond the research center towards universities and authorities at state and federal level. The climate office represents polar aspects of climate related research based on the scientific expertise from the hosting research institute e.g. the understanding of the ocean-ice-atmosphere interactions, the animal and plant kingdoms of the Arctic and Antarctic, and the evolution of the polar continents and seas. The climate office translates the scientific work into English, making complex issues accessible to policymakers and the public. It compiles, evaluates, comprehensively process and transparently communicate the latest findings from polar related climate research. The paper will present different

  11. Climate-aerosol interactions over the Mediterranean region: a regional coupled modelling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nabat, Pierre; Somot, Samuel; Mallet, Marc

    2015-04-01

    The Mediterranean basin is affected by numerous and various aerosols which have a high spatio-temporal variability. These aerosols directly interact with solar and thermal radiation, and indirectly with clouds and atmospheric dynamics. Therefore they can have an important impact on the regional climate. This work, located at the boundary between the ChArMEx and HyMeX programs, considers a coupled regional modeling approach in order to address the questions of the aerosol-radiation-cloud interactions with regards to the climate variability over the Mediterranean. In order to improve the characterization of Mediterranean aerosols, a new interannual monthly climatology of aerosol optical depth has been developed from a blended product based on both satellite-derived and model-simulated datasets. This dataset, available for every regional climate model over the Mediterranean for the 1979-2012 period, has been built to obtain the best possible estimate of the atmospheric aerosol content for the five species at stake (sulfate, black carbon, organic matter, desert dust and sea salt particles). Simulation ensembles, which have been carried out over the 2003-2009 period with and without aerosols, show a major impact on the regional climate. The seasonal cycle and the spatial patterns of the Mediterranean climate are significantly modified, as well as some specific situations such as the heat wave in July 2006 strengthened by the presence of desert dust particles. The essential role of the Mediterranean sea surface temperature is highlighted, and enables to understand the induced changes on air-sea fluxes and the consequences on regional climate. Oceanic convection is also strengthened by aerosols. In addition, the decrease in anthropogenic aerosols observed for more than thirty years is shown to significantly contribute to the observed Euro-Mediterranean climatic trends in terms of surface radiation and temperature. Besides, an interactive aerosol scheme has been developed

  12. Regional climate simulations over Vietnam using the WRF model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raghavan, S. V.; Vu, M. T.; Liong, S. Y.

    2015-07-01

    We present an analysis of the present-day (1961-1990) regional climate simulations over Vietnam. The regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) was driven by the global reanalysis ERA40. The performance of the regional climate model in simulating the observed climate is evaluated with a main focus on precipitation and temperature. The regional climate model was able to reproduce the observed spatial patterns of the climate, although with some biases. The model also performed better in reproducing the extreme precipitation and the interannual variability. Overall, the WRF model was able to simulate the main regional signatures of climate variables, seasonal cycles, and frequency distributions. This study is an evaluation of the present-day climate simulations of a regional climate model at a resolution of 25 km. Given that dynamical downscaling has become common for studying climate change and its impacts, the study highlights that much more improvements in modeling might be necessary to yield realistic simulations of climate at high resolutions before they can be used for impact studies at a local scale. The need for a dense network of observations is also realized as observations at high resolutions are needed when it comes to evaluations and validations of models at sub-regional and local scales.

  13. Regional climate simulations over Vietnam using the WRF model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raghavan, S. V.; Vu, M. T.; Liong, S. Y.

    2016-10-01

    We present an analysis of the present-day (1961-1990) regional climate simulations over Vietnam. The regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) was driven by the global reanalysis ERA40. The performance of the regional climate model in simulating the observed climate is evaluated with a main focus on precipitation and temperature. The regional climate model was able to reproduce the observed spatial patterns of the climate, although with some biases. The model also performed better in reproducing the extreme precipitation and the interannual variability. Overall, the WRF model was able to simulate the main regional signatures of climate variables, seasonal cycles, and frequency distributions. This study is an evaluation of the present-day climate simulations of a regional climate model at a resolution of 25 km. Given that dynamical downscaling has become common for studying climate change and its impacts, the study highlights that much more improvements in modeling might be necessary to yield realistic simulations of climate at high resolutions before they can be used for impact studies at a local scale. The need for a dense network of observations is also realized as observations at high resolutions are needed when it comes to evaluations and validations of models at sub-regional and local scales.

  14. Climate change and vector-borne diseases: a regional analysis.

    PubMed

    Githeko, A K; Lindsay, S W; Confalonieri, U E; Patz, J A

    2000-01-01

    Current evidence suggests that inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability have a direct influence on the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases. This evidence has been assessed at the continental level in order to determine the possible consequences of the expected future climate change. By 2100 it is estimated that average global temperatures will have risen by 1.0-3.5 degrees C, increasing the likelihood of many vector-borne diseases in new areas. The greatest effect of climate change on transmission is likely to be observed at the extremes of the range of temperatures at which transmission occurs. For many diseases these lie in the range 14-18 degrees C at the lower end and about 35-40 degrees C at the upper end. Malaria and dengue fever are among the most important vector-borne diseases in the tropics and subtropics; Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in the USA and Europe. Encephalitis is also becoming a public health concern. Health risks due to climatic changes will differ between countries that have developed health infrastructures and those that do not. Human settlement patterns in the different regions will influence disease trends. While 70% of the population in South America is urbanized, the proportion in sub-Saharan Africa is less than 45%. Climatic anomalies associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon and resulting in drought and floods are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. They have been linked to outbreaks of malaria in Africa, Asia and South America. Climate change has far-reaching consequences and touches on all life-support systems. It is therefore a factor that should be placed high among those that affect human health and survival.

  15. Climate change and vector-borne diseases: a regional analysis.

    PubMed Central

    Githeko, A. K.; Lindsay, S. W.; Confalonieri, U. E.; Patz, J. A.

    2000-01-01

    Current evidence suggests that inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability have a direct influence on the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases. This evidence has been assessed at the continental level in order to determine the possible consequences of the expected future climate change. By 2100 it is estimated that average global temperatures will have risen by 1.0-3.5 degrees C, increasing the likelihood of many vector-borne diseases in new areas. The greatest effect of climate change on transmission is likely to be observed at the extremes of the range of temperatures at which transmission occurs. For many diseases these lie in the range 14-18 degrees C at the lower end and about 35-40 degrees C at the upper end. Malaria and dengue fever are among the most important vector-borne diseases in the tropics and subtropics; Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in the USA and Europe. Encephalitis is also becoming a public health concern. Health risks due to climatic changes will differ between countries that have developed health infrastructures and those that do not. Human settlement patterns in the different regions will influence disease trends. While 70% of the population in South America is urbanized, the proportion in sub-Saharan Africa is less than 45%. Climatic anomalies associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon and resulting in drought and floods are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. They have been linked to outbreaks of malaria in Africa, Asia and South America. Climate change has far-reaching consequences and touches on all life-support systems. It is therefore a factor that should be placed high among those that affect human health and survival. PMID:11019462

  16. Is climate change affecting wolf populations in the high Arctic?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mech, L.D.

    2004-01-01

    Global climate change may affect wolves in Canada's High Arctic (80DG N) acting through three trophic levels (vegetation, herbivores, and wolves). A wolf pack dependent on muskoxen and arctic hares in the Eureka area of Ellesmere Island denned and produced pups most years from at least 1986 through 1997. However when summer snow covered vegetation in 1997 and 2000 for the first time since records were kept, halving the herbivore nutrition-replenishment period, muskox and hare numbers dropped drastically, and the area stopped supporting denning wolves through 2003. The unusual weather triggering these events was consistent with global-climate-change phenomena.

  17. Is climate change affecting wolf populations in the high Arctic?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mech, L.D.

    2004-01-01

    Gobal climate change may affect wolves in Canada's High Arctic (80?? N) acting through three trophic levels (vegetation, herbivores, and wolves). A wolf pack dependent on muskoxen and arctic hares in the Eureka area of Ellesmere Island denned and produced pups most years from at least 1986 through 1997. However, when summer snow covered vegetation in 1997 and 2000 for the first time since records were kept, halving the herbivore nutrition-replenishment period, muskox and hare numbers dropped drastically, and the area stopped supporting denning wolves through 2003. The unusual weather triggering these events was consistent with global-climate-change phenomena. ?? 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

  18. Climate Outreach Using Regional Coastal Ocean Observing System Portals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, D. M.; Hernandez, D. L.; Wakely, A.; Bochenek, R. J.; Bickel, A.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal oceans are dynamic, changing environments affected by processes ranging from seconds to millennia. On the east and west coast of the U.S., regional observing systems have deployed and sustained a remarkable diverse array of observing tools and sensors. Data portals visualize and provide access to real-time sensor networks. Portals have emerged as an interactive tool for educators to help students explore and understand climate. Bringing data portals to outreach events, into classrooms, and onto tablets and smartphones enables educators to address topics and phenomena happening right now. For example at the 2015 Charleston Science Technology Engineering and Math (STEM) Festival, visitors navigated the SECOORA (Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing regional Association) data portal to view the real-time marine meteorological conditions off South Carolina. Map-based entry points provide an intuitive interface for most students, an array of time series and other visualizations depict many of the essential principles of climate science manifest in the coastal zone, and data down-load/ extract options provide access to the data and documentation for further inquiry by advanced users. Beyond the exposition of climate principles, the portal experience reveals remarkable technologies in action and shows how the observing system is enabled by the activity of many different partners.

  19. Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

    SciTech Connect

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

  20. Climate uncertainty and the regional economic impacts of global climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, M.J.; Liebetrau, A.M.; Lopresti, C.A.

    1993-10-01

    The US Department of Energy funded pioneering research analyzing the effects of climate change and CO{sup 2} fertilization at the regional level in the Missouri-Iowa-Nebraska-Kansas (MINK) region. That study used existing process models of the agricultural, water, energy, and forestry sectors and of the regional economy to conduct a wide-ranging, integrated analysis of the regional economic effects of climate change. Neither the full integration of the process models nor the full investigation of the uncertainties of climate and economic response to climate was accomplished because (1) the process models were time-consuming to run, and (2) the MINI( study used a single rich historical climate analog -- the 1930s `` Dustbowl`` period -- to depict climate change. More analysis was required to develop ranges of climate influences over more extreme climate conditions.

  1. Incorporating vegetation dynamics in regional climate change projections over the Mediterranean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alo, C. A.; Anagnostou, E. N.

    2009-09-01

    Recent projections of climate change over the Mediterranean region based on general circulation models (e.g. IPCC AR4 GCMs) and regional climate models (e.g. PRUDENCE RCMs) generally show strong warming and pronounced decrease in precipitation, especially in the summer. While the role of vegetation in modulating the regional climate is widely recognized, most, if not all, of these GCM and RCM climate change projections do not account for the response of the dynamic biosphere to potential climate changes. Here, we present preliminary results from ongoing 15-year simulations over the Mediterranean region with a regional climate model (RegCM3) asynchronously coupled to a dynamic vegetation model (CLM-DGVM). Three experiments are performed in order to explore the impact of vegetation feedback on simulated changes in mean climate, climate variability and extreme climatic events (i.e., flood-inducing storms, droughts, heat waves, and extreme winds). This includes 1) a present day climate run with dynamic vegetation, 2) a future climate run with dynamic vegetation, and 3) a future climate run with static vegetation (i.e. vegetation fixed at the present day state). RegCM3 and CLM-DGVM are both run at a horizontal grid spacing of 20 km over a region covering the Mediterranean basin and parts of Central Europe and Northern Africa. Results illustrate the importance of including vegetation feedback in predictions of climate change impacts on Mediterranean climate variability, extreme climatic events and storms.

  2. Spatial changes of Extended De Martonne climatic zones affected by climate change in Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahimi, Jaber; Ebrahimpour, Meisam; Khalili, Ali

    2013-05-01

    In order to better understand the effect associated with global climate change on Iran's climate condition, it is important to quantify possible shifts in different climatic types in the future. To this end, monthly mean minimum and maximum temperature, and precipitation from 181 synoptic meteorological stations (average 1970-2005) have been collected from the meteorological organization of Iran. In this paper, to study spatial changes of Iran's climatic zones affected by climate changes, Extended De Martonne's classification (originally formulated by De Martonne and extended by Khalili (1992)) was used. Climate change scenarios were simulated in two future climates (average conditions during the 2050s and the 2080s) under each of the SRES A1B and A2, for the CSIRO-MK3, HadCM3, and CGCM3 climate models. Coarse outputs of GCMs were downscaled by delta method. We produced all maps for three time periods (one for the current and two for the future) according to Extended De Martonne's classification. Finally, for each climatic zone, changes between the current and the future were compared. As the main result, simulated changes indicate shifts to warmer and drier zones. For example, in the current, extra arid-cold ( A1.1m2) climate is covering the largest area of the country (21.4 %), whereas in both A1B and A2 scenarios in the 2050s and the 2080s, extra arid-moderate ( A1.1m3) and extra arid-warm ( A1.1m4) will be the climate and will occupy the largest area of the country, about 21 and 38 %, respectively. This analysis suggests that the global climate change will have a profound effect on the future distribution of severe aridity in Iran.

  3. Potential impact of U.S. biofuels on regional climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgescu, M.; Lobell, D. B.; Field, C. B.

    2009-11-01

    Recent work has shown that current bio-energy policy directives may have harmful, indirect consequences, affecting both food security and the global climate system. An additional unintended but direct effect of large-scale biofuel production is the impact on local and regional climate resulting from changes in the energy and moisture balance of the surface upon conversion to biofuel crops. Using the latest version of the WRF modeling system we conducted twenty-four, midsummer, continental-wide, sensitivity experiments by imposing realistic biophysical parameter limits appropriate for bio-energy crops in the Corn Belt of the United States. In the absence of strain/crop-specific parameterizations, a primary goal of this work was to isolate the maximum regional climate impact, for a trio of individual July months, due to land-use change resulting from bio-energy crops and to identify the relative importance of each biophysical parameter in terms of its individual effect. Maximum, local changes in 2 m temperature of the order of 1°C occur for the full breadth of albedo (ALB), minimum canopy resistance (RCMIN), and rooting depth (ROOT) specifications, while the regionally (105°W-75°W and 35°N-50°N) and monthly averaged response of 2 m temperature was most pronounced for the ALB and RCMIN experiments, exceeding 0.2°C. The full range of albedo variability associated with biofuel crops may be sufficient to drive regional changes in summertime rainfall. Individual parameter effects on 2 m temperature are additive, highlight the cooling contribution of higher leaf area index (LAI) and ROOT for perennial grasses (e.g., Miscanthus) versus annual crops (e.g., maize), and underscore the necessity of improving location- and vegetation-specific representation of RCMIN and ALB.

  4. Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics.

    PubMed

    McLean, Nina; Lawson, Callum R; Leech, Dave I; van de Pol, Martijn

    2016-06-01

    Species' responses to climate change are variable and diverse, yet our understanding of how different responses (e.g. physiological, behavioural, demographic) relate and how they affect the parameters most relevant for conservation (e.g. population persistence) is lacking. Despite this, studies that observe changes in one type of response typically assume that effects on population dynamics will occur, perhaps fallaciously. We use a hierarchical framework to explain and test when impacts of climate on traits (e.g. phenology) affect demographic rates (e.g. reproduction) and in turn population dynamics. Using this conceptual framework, we distinguish four mechanisms that can prevent lower-level responses from impacting population dynamics. Testable hypotheses were identified from the literature that suggest life-history and ecological characteristics which could predict when these mechanisms are likely to be important. A quantitative example on birds illustrates how, even with limited data and without fully-parameterized population models, new insights can be gained; differences among species in the impacts of climate-driven phenological changes on population growth were not explained by the number of broods or density dependence. Our approach helps to predict the types of species in which climate sensitivities of phenotypic traits have strong demographic and population consequences, which is crucial for conservation prioritization of data-deficient species.

  5. Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics.

    PubMed

    McLean, Nina; Lawson, Callum R; Leech, Dave I; van de Pol, Martijn

    2016-06-01

    Species' responses to climate change are variable and diverse, yet our understanding of how different responses (e.g. physiological, behavioural, demographic) relate and how they affect the parameters most relevant for conservation (e.g. population persistence) is lacking. Despite this, studies that observe changes in one type of response typically assume that effects on population dynamics will occur, perhaps fallaciously. We use a hierarchical framework to explain and test when impacts of climate on traits (e.g. phenology) affect demographic rates (e.g. reproduction) and in turn population dynamics. Using this conceptual framework, we distinguish four mechanisms that can prevent lower-level responses from impacting population dynamics. Testable hypotheses were identified from the literature that suggest life-history and ecological characteristics which could predict when these mechanisms are likely to be important. A quantitative example on birds illustrates how, even with limited data and without fully-parameterized population models, new insights can be gained; differences among species in the impacts of climate-driven phenological changes on population growth were not explained by the number of broods or density dependence. Our approach helps to predict the types of species in which climate sensitivities of phenotypic traits have strong demographic and population consequences, which is crucial for conservation prioritization of data-deficient species. PMID:27062059

  6. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  7. How will climate change affect vine behaviour in different soils?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leibar, Urtzi; Aizpurua, Ana; Morales, Fermin; Pascual, Inmaculada; Unamunzaga, Olatz

    2014-05-01

    and water-deficit had a clear influence on the grape phenological development and composition, whilst soil affected root configuration and anthocyanins concentration. Effects of climate change and water availability on different soil conditions should be considered to take full advantage or mitigate the consequences of the future climate conditions.

  8. Projected shifts in Coffea arabica suitability among major global producing regions due to climate change.

    PubMed

    Ovalle-Rivera, Oriana; Läderach, Peter; Bunn, Christian; Obersteiner, Michael; Schroth, Götz

    2015-01-01

    Regional studies have shown that climate change will affect climatic suitability for Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) within current regions of production. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will decrease yield, reduce quality and increase pest and disease pressure. This is the first global study on the impact of climate change on suitability to grow Arabica coffee. We modeled the global distribution of Arabica coffee under changes in climatic suitability by 2050s as projected by 21 global circulation models. The results suggest decreased areas suitable for Arabica coffee in Mesoamerica at lower altitudes. In South America close to the equator higher elevations could benefit, but higher latitudes lose suitability. Coffee regions in Ethiopia and Kenya are projected to become more suitable but those in India and Vietnam to become less suitable. Globally, we predict decreases in climatic suitability at lower altitudes and high latitudes, which may shift production among the major regions that produce Arabica coffee. PMID:25875230

  9. Projected Shifts in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Ovalle-Rivera, Oriana; Läderach, Peter; Bunn, Christian; Obersteiner, Michael; Schroth, Götz

    2015-01-01

    Regional studies have shown that climate change will affect climatic suitability for Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) within current regions of production. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will decrease yield, reduce quality and increase pest and disease pressure. This is the first global study on the impact of climate change on suitability to grow Arabica coffee. We modeled the global distribution of Arabica coffee under changes in climatic suitability by 2050s as projected by 21 global circulation models. The results suggest decreased areas suitable for Arabica coffee in Mesoamerica at lower altitudes. In South America close to the equator higher elevations could benefit, but higher latitudes lose suitability. Coffee regions in Ethiopia and Kenya are projected to become more suitable but those in India and Vietnam to become less suitable. Globally, we predict decreases in climatic suitability at lower altitudes and high latitudes, which may shift production among the major regions that produce Arabica coffee. PMID:25875230

  10. Projected shifts in Coffea arabica suitability among major global producing regions due to climate change.

    PubMed

    Ovalle-Rivera, Oriana; Läderach, Peter; Bunn, Christian; Obersteiner, Michael; Schroth, Götz

    2015-01-01

    Regional studies have shown that climate change will affect climatic suitability for Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) within current regions of production. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will decrease yield, reduce quality and increase pest and disease pressure. This is the first global study on the impact of climate change on suitability to grow Arabica coffee. We modeled the global distribution of Arabica coffee under changes in climatic suitability by 2050s as projected by 21 global circulation models. The results suggest decreased areas suitable for Arabica coffee in Mesoamerica at lower altitudes. In South America close to the equator higher elevations could benefit, but higher latitudes lose suitability. Coffee regions in Ethiopia and Kenya are projected to become more suitable but those in India and Vietnam to become less suitable. Globally, we predict decreases in climatic suitability at lower altitudes and high latitudes, which may shift production among the major regions that produce Arabica coffee.

  11. Climate change in California - why is this region especially vulnerable?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cayan, D. R.

    2008-12-01

    It is very likely that global warming has already been affecting the California region., and global model projections indicate that much larger changes will unfold over the coming decades. In this talk we review results from two recent State-sponsored assessments of prospective climate change scenarios for California, which indicate that impacts in this region may be particularly challenging. Among the rest of the United States, the annual delivery of precipitation in this region is remarkably volatile, being prone to multi- year droughts and occasional wet spells and large storms-climate change may exacerbate this. An important part of the water supply that historically has come in the form of snow in mountain watersheds will probably shift to rain, which is harder to manage and save for dry summer irrigation and other forms of consumption. Furthermore, much of the water supply is conveyed through the San Franciso Bay/Delta, a complex estuary that will be impacted by bigger floods and rising sea levels.

  12. Anthropogenic climate change affects meteorological drought risk in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2016-04-01

    Drought constitutes a significant natural hazard in Europe, impacting societies and ecosystems across the continent. Climate model simulations with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations project increased drought risk in southern Europe, and on the other hand decreased drought risk in the north. Observed changes in water balance components and drought indicators resemble the projected pattern. However, assessments of possible causes of the reported regional changes have so far been inconclusive. Here we investigate whether anthropogenic emissions have altered past and present meteorological (precipitation) drought risk. For doing so we first estimate the magnitude of 20 year return period drought years that would occur without anthropogenic effects on the climate. Subsequently we quantify to which degree the occurrence probability, i.e. the risk, of these years has changed if anthropogenic climate change is accounted for. Both an observational and a climate model-based assessment suggest that it is >95% likely that human emissions have increased the probability of drought years in the Mediterranean, whereas it is >95% likely that the probability of dry years has decreased in northern Europe. In central Europe the evidence is inconclusive. The results highlight that anthropogenic climate change has already increased drought risk in southern Europe, stressing the need to develop efficient mitigation measures.

  13. Probabilistic modeling of climate change impacts in permafrost regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anisimov, O.

    2009-04-01

    The new type of climate impact models has recently come into existence. Unlike conventional models, they take into account the probabilistic nature of climatic projections and small-scale spatial variability of permafrost parameters. In this study we describe the new stochastic permafrost modeling methodology and present the predictive results obtained for the Northern Eurasia under the ensemble climatic projection for the mid-21st century. Changes in permafrost are very illustrative of the impacts of global warming. It underlies about 22.8 million square km or 24% of the land area in the Northern Hemisphere and largely controls the state of the environment and socio-economical development in the northern lands. Observed and projected for the future warming is more pronounced in high latitudes, and there are indications that climatic change has already affected permafrost leading to deeper seasonal thawing and disappearance of the frozen ground in many locations. Particular concerns are associated with environmental and economical risks due to the damage of constructions, and with potential enhancement of the global warming through emission of greenhouse gases from thawing permafrost. Comprehensive permafrost projections are needed to predict such processes. We developed new type of stochastic model, which operates with the probability distribution functions of the parameters characterizing the state of permafrost. Air temperature, precipitation, snow depth, as well as vegetation and soil properties contribute to the variability of these parameters in space and over time, which is taken into account in the calculations of the statistical ensemble representing potential states of permafrost under the prescribed conditions. The model requires appropriate climatic and environmental data characterizing baseline or projected for the future conditions. Four gridded sets of climatic parameters constructed through spatial interpolation of meteorological observations and

  14. Does Nudging Squelch the Extremes in Regional Climate Modeling?

    EPA Science Inventory

    An important question in regional climate downscaling is whether to constrain (nudge) the interior of the limited-area domain toward the larger-scale driving fields. Prior research has demonstrated that interior nudging can increase the skill of regional climate predictions origin...

  15. Climate affects predator control of an herbivore outbreak.

    PubMed

    Preisser, Evan L; Strong, Donald R

    2004-05-01

    Herbivore outbreaks and the accompanying devastation of plant biomass can have enormous ecological effects. Climate directly affects such outbreaks through plant stress or alterations in herbivore life-history traits. Large-scale variation in climate can indirectly affect outbreaks through trophic interactions, but the magnitude of such effects is unknown. On the California coast, rainfall in years during and immediately previous to mass lupine mortality was two-thirds that of years without such mortality. However, neither mature lupines nor their root-feeding herbivores are directly affected by annual variation in rainfall. By increasing soil moisture to levels characteristic of summers following El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, we increased persistence of a predator (the entomopathogenic nematode Heterorhabditis marelatus). This led to suppression of an outbreak of the herbivorous moth Hepialus californicus, indirectly protecting bush lupine (Lupinus arboreus). Our results are consistent with the marine-oriented Menge-Sutherland hypothesis (Menge and Sutherland 1987) that abiotic stress has greater effects on higher than on lower trophic levels. The mechanisms producing these results differ from those proposed by Menge-Sutherland, however, highlighting differences between trophic processes in underground and terrestrial/marine food webs. Our evidence suggests that herbivore outbreaks and mass lupine mortality are indirectly affected by ENSO's facilitation of top-down control in this food web.

  16. A Data Driven Framework for Integrating Regional Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lansing, C.; Kleese van Dam, K.; Liu, Y.; Elsethagen, T.; Guillen, Z.; Stephan, E.; Critchlow, T.; Gorton, I.

    2012-12-01

    There are increasing needs for research addressing complex climate sensitive issues of concern to decision-makers and policy planners at a regional level. Decisions about allocating scarce water across competing municipal, agricultural, and ecosystem demands is just one of the challenges ahead, along with decisions regarding competing land use priorities such as biofuels, food, and species habitat. Being able to predict the extent of future climate change in the context of introducing alternative energy production strategies requires a new generation of modeling capabilities. We will also need more complete representations of human systems at regional scales, incorporating the influences of population centers, land use, agriculture and existing and planned electrical demand and generation infrastructure. At PNNL we are working towards creating a first-of-a-kind capability known as the Integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM). The fundamental goal of the iRESM initiative is the critical analyses of the tradeoffs and consequences of decision and policy making for integrated human and environmental systems. This necessarily combines different scientific processes, bridging different temporal and geographic scales and resolving the semantic differences between them. To achieve this goal, iRESM is developing a modeling framework and supporting infrastructure that enable the scientific team to evaluate different scenarios in light of specific stakeholder questions such as "How do regional changes in mean climate states and climate extremes affect water storage and energy consumption and how do such decisions influence possible mitigation and carbon management schemes?" The resulting capability will give analysts a toolset to gain insights into how regional economies can respond to climate change mitigation policies and accelerated deployment of alternative energy technologies. The iRESM framework consists of a collection of coupled models working with high

  17. Brain regions and genes affecting postural control.

    PubMed

    Lalonde, R; Strazielle, C

    2007-01-01

    Postural control is integrated in all facets of motor commands. The role of cortico-subcortical pathways underlying postural control, including cerebellum and its afferents (climbing, mossy, and noradrenergic fibers), basal ganglia, motor thalamus, and parieto-frontal neocortex has been identified in animal models, notably through the brain lesion technique in rats and in mice with spontaneous and induced mutations. These studies are complemented by analyses of the factors underlying postural deficiencies in patients with cerebellar atrophy. With the gene deletion technique in mice, specific genes expressed in cerebellum encoding glutamate receptors (Grid2 and Grm1) and other molecules (Prkcc, Cntn6, Klf9, Syt4, and En2) have also been shown to affect postural control. In addition, transgenic mouse models of the synucleinopathies and of Huntington's disease cause deficiencies of motor coordination resembling those of patients with basal ganglia damage.

  18. Will climate change affect biodiversity in pacific northwest forests

    SciTech Connect

    Henderson, S.; Rosenbaum, B.J.

    1992-01-01

    Global climate change could have significant consequences for biological diversity in Pacific Northwest (PNW) forested ecosystems, particularly in areas already threatened by anthropogenic activities and the resultant habitat modification and fragmentation. The forests of the Pacific Northwest have a high biological diversity, not only in terms of tree species, but also in terms of herbs, bryophytes and hepatophytes, algae, fungi, protist, bacteria, and many groups of vertebrates and invertebrates. Global circulation and vegetation model projections of global climate change effects on PNW forests include reductions in species diversity in low elevation forests as well as elevational and latitudinal shifts in species ranges. As species are most likely to be stressed at the edges of their ranges, plant and animal species with low mobility, or those that are prevented from migrating by lack of habitat corridors, may become regionally extinct. Endangered species with limited distribution may be especially vulnerable to shifts in habitat conditions.

  19. Thermally affected characterization region by Barkhausen noise.

    PubMed

    Zergoug, M; Boucherrou, N; Haddad, A; Benchaala, A; Moulti, B; Tahraoui, H; Sellidj, F; Hammouda, A

    2000-07-01

    The controlling of some industrial components require the development of new and particular nondestructive testing techniques. The testing method using Barkhausen noise (BN) is a particular one which can be applied to ferromagnetic materials. It is a magnetic nondestructive evaluation method and can provide very important information about the material structure. The aim of our work is to study the material structure using this technique to characterize the region submitted to thermal processing. Samples of steel have been heated at temperatures between 650 degrees C and 1,200 degrees C with variable parameters (time processing, maintenance time, etc.). Acoustic BN processing allows an easy interpretation of results. Micrographs of samples have been obtained to confirm the results obtained by BN.

  20. Regional climate change mitigation with crops: context and assessment.

    PubMed

    Singarayer, J S; Davies-Barnard, T

    2012-09-13

    The intention of this review is to place crop albedo biogeoengineering in the wider picture of climate manipulation. Crop biogeoengineering is considered within the context of the long-term modification of the land surface for agriculture over several thousand years. Biogeoengineering is also critiqued in relation to other geoengineering schemes in terms of mitigation power and adherence to social principles for geoengineering. Although its impact is small and regional, crop biogeoengineering could be a useful and inexpensive component of an ensemble of geoengineering schemes to provide temperature mitigation. The method should not detrimentally affect food security and there may even be positive impacts on crop productivity, although more laboratory and field research is required in this area to understand the underlying mechanisms.

  1. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Alaska Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGuire, D.

    2009-12-01

    The assessment of the Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States includes analyses of the potential climate change impacts in Alaska. The resulting findings are discussed in this presentation, with the effects on water resources discussed separately. Major findings include: Summers are getting hotter and drier, with increasing evaporation outpacing increased precipitation. Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. These impacts are different from region to region and will grow under projected climate change. Wildfires and insect problems are increasing. Climate plays a key role in determining the extent and severity of insect outbreaks and wildfire. The area burned in North America’s northern forest that spans Alaska and Canada tripled from the 1960s to the 1990s. During the 1990s, south-central Alaska experienced the largest outbreak of spruce bark beetles in the world because of warmer weather in all seasons of the year. Under changing climate conditions, the average area burned per year in Alaska is projected to double by the middle of this century10. By the end of this century, area burned by fire is projected to triple under a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario and to quadruple under a higher emissions scenario. Close-bodied lakes are declining in area. A continued decline in the area of surface water would present challenges for the management of natural resources and ecosystems on National Wildlife Refuges in Alaska. These refuges, which cover over 77 million acres (21 percent of Alaska) and comprise 81 percent of the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System, provide a breeding habitat for millions of waterfowl and shorebirds that winter in the lower 48 states. Permafrost thawing will damage public and private infrastructure. Land subsidence (sinking) associated with the thawing of permafrost presents substantial challenges to engineers attempting to preserve infrastructure in

  2. Implication of Agricultural Land Use Change on Regional Climate Projection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

    2015-12-01

    Agricultural land use plays an important role in land-atmosphere interaction. Agricultural activity is one of the most important processes driving human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) in a region. In addition to future socioeconomic changes, climate-induced changes in crop yield represent another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In feedback, the resulting LULCC influences the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. Therefore, assessment of climate change impact on future agricultural land use and its feedback is of great importance in climate change study. In this study, to evaluate the feedback of projected land use changes to the regional climate in West Africa, we employed an asynchronous coupling between a regional climate model (RegCM) and a prototype land use projection model (LandPro). The LandPro model, which was developed to project the future change in agricultural land use and the resulting shift in natural vegetation in West Africa, is a spatially explicit model that can account for both climate and socioeconomic changes in projecting future land use changes. In the asynchronously coupled modeling framework, LandPro was run for every five years during the period of 2005-2050 accounting for climate-induced change in crop yield and socioeconomic changes to project the land use pattern by the mid-21st century. Climate data at 0.5˚ was derived from RegCM to drive the crop model DSSAT for each of the five-year periods to simulate crop yields, which was then provided as input data to LandPro. Subsequently, the land use land cover map required to run RegCM was updated every five years using the outputs from the LandPro simulations. Results from the coupled model simulations improve the understanding of climate change impact on future land use and the resulting feedback to regional climate.

  3. Building a Regional Collaborative for Climate Literacy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shcherba, O.; Carlton, C.

    2015-12-01

    The San Francisco Bay Area has a strong community of environmental educators with an articulated interest in expanding, elevating, and strengthening climate change programming. Based in this community, a group of educators identified a strong need for and interest in collaborating to increase capacity and knowledge, support pilot testing, and implement climate change best practices in educational and interpretive programs. Since its inception, the Bay Area Climate Literacy Collaborative has brought together over 25 organizations, ranging from wildlife refuges to nonprofit education centers and city park agencies. While still in its nascent phase, the Bay Area Climate Literacy Collaborative exemplifies the power of collective impact. With the backbone support of the Institute at the Golden Gate, the Collaborative has developed a common agenda and is making strides towards developing common measures of success. The initial development stages of this group present an interesting case study and highlight some of the challenges, opportunities, and lessons learned for others seeking to build their own collective impact initiative.

  4. Regional Climate Variations and Change for Terrestrial Ecosystems Workshop Review

    EPA Science Inventory

    North Carolina State University, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, in partnership with the U.S. Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center (SECSC), hosted the Regional Climate Variations and Change for ...

  5. A framework for modeling uncertainty in regional climate change

    EPA Science Inventory

    In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the United States associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources of uncertainty considered in this framework ...

  6. Regional Climate Service in Northern Germany -The North German Climate Office

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meinke, I.; Von Storch, H.

    2012-12-01

    The North German Climate Office was established in 2006 at the Institute for Coastal Research at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany as consequence of an increased public information need regarding coastal climate change and its impacts in Northern Germany. The service is characterized by an intensive dialogue between regional climate research and stakeholders in Northern Germany. About once a week scientists of the North German climate office are invited to contribute to public dialogue events. Also numerous direct inquiries are answered and expert interviews are conducted. From this dialogue process specific stakeholder information needs are localized and analysed to develop tailored information products. To provide easy and user specific access to research results interactive web tools are developed. One example is the North German climate atlas, an interactive web tool on possible future climate change in Northern Germany. Another interactive web tool is informing on present and future coastal protection needs in Northern Germany. Another aim of our information products is to assess and summarize the existing scientific knowledge on climate, climate change and impacts in Northern Germany. A mini IPCC-like regional assessment report has been published in 2010, which is summarizing, discussing and assessing the scientific knowledge on regional climate, climate change and impacts as well as possible adaptation strategies in the metropolitan region of Hamburg.

  7. Ensemble-based Regional Climate Prediction: Political Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miguel, E.; Dykema, J.; Satyanath, S.; Anderson, J. G.

    2008-12-01

    Accurate forecasts of regional climate, including temperature and precipitation, have significant implications for human activities, not just economically but socially. Sub Saharan Africa is a region that has displayed an exceptional propensity for devastating civil wars. Recent research in political economy has revealed a strong statistical relationship between year to year fluctuations in precipitation and civil conflict in this region in the 1980s and 1990s. To investigate how climate change may modify the regional risk of civil conflict in the future requires a probabilistic regional forecast that explicitly accounts for the community's uncertainty in the evolution of rainfall under anthropogenic forcing. We approach the regional climate prediction aspect of this question through the application of a recently demonstrated method called generalized scalar prediction (Leroy et al. 2009), which predicts arbitrary scalar quantities of the climate system. This prediction method can predict change in any variable or linear combination of variables of the climate system averaged over a wide range spatial scales, from regional to hemispheric to global. Generalized scalar prediction utilizes an ensemble of model predictions to represent the community's uncertainty range in climate modeling in combination with a timeseries of any type of observational data that exhibits sensitivity to the scalar of interest. It is not necessary to prioritize models in deriving with the final prediction. We present the results of the application of generalized scalar prediction for regional forecasts of temperature and precipitation and Sub Saharan Africa. We utilize the climate predictions along with the established statistical relationship between year-to-year rainfall variability in Sub Saharan Africa to investigate the potential impact of climate change on civil conflict within that region.

  8. Using Different Spatial Scales of Climate Data for Regional Climate Impact Assessment: Effect on Crop Modeling Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Trabucco, A.; Montesarchio, M.; Mercogliano, P.; Spano, D.

    2015-12-01

    The high vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate conditions causes serious concern regarding climate change impacts on crop development and production, particularly in vulnerable areas like the Mediterranean Basin. Crop simulation models are the most common tools applied for the assessment of such impacts on crop development and yields, both at local and regional scales. However, the use of these models in regional impact studies requires spatial input data for weather, soil, management, etc, whose resolution could affect simulation results. Indeed, the uncertainty in projecting climate change impacts on crop phenology and yield at the regional scale is affected not only by the uncertainty related to climate models and scenarios, but also by the downscaling methods and the resolution of climate data. The aim of this study was the evaluation of the effects of spatial resolutions of climate projections in estimating maturity date and grain yield for different varieties of durum wheat, common wheat and maize in Italy. The simulations were carried out using the CSM-CERES-Wheat and CSM-CERES-Maize crop models included in the DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, parameterized and evaluated in different experimental sites located in Italy. Dynamically downscaled climate data at different resolutions and different RCP scenarios were used as input in the crop models. A spatial platform, DSSAT-CSM based, developed in R programming language was applied to perform the simulation of maturity date and grain yield for durum wheat, common wheat and maize in each grid cell. Results, analyzed at the national and regional level, will be discussed.

  9. Different region climate regimes and topography affect the changes in area and mass balance of glaciers on the north and south slopes of the same glacierized massif (the West Nyainqentanglha Range, Tibetan Plateau)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Wusheng; Yao, Tandong; Kang, Shichang; Pu, Jianchen; Yang, Wei; Gao, Tanguang; Zhao, Huabiao; Zhou, Hang; Li, Shenghai; Wang, Weicai; Ma, Linglong

    2013-07-01

    This project launched a comparative study to investigate the areas of the Zhadang glacier (on the leeward slope/north slope of the West Nyainqentanglha Range, Tibetan Plateau) and the Gurenhekou glacier (on the windward slope/south slope) for nearly 40 years (1970-2007) and measure the mass balance of the two glaciers for three (2005-2008) and four (2004-2008) mass balance years, respectively. Results show that, in 1970-2007, overall annual precipitation decreased slightly caused by the weakening Indian monsoon and strengthened westerlies and annual mean air temperatures increased gradually in the areas to the north and south of the West Nyainqentanglha Range, respectively, resulting in the areas of the two glaciers reduced over the last nearly four decades. The rate of air temperature increase in the north is higher than that in the south. Moreover, mean annual precipitation in the south exceeds that in the north, due to the weakening of the Indian Monsoon activities across the West Nyainqentanglha Range. As a result, the area decrease of Zhadang glacier in the north slope of the West Nyainqentanglha Range is more intensive than that of Gurenhekou glacier in the south slope. Results also show that these two small glaciers experienced gradual reduction of the mass loss during the observation period of 2005-2008 and 2004-2008, and exhibited positive mass balances in 2008, possibly resulting from increases of annual precipitation and decreases in mean annual air temperatures, especially the lowering of air temperatures and the notably increasing of precipitation during the ablation period in 2006-2008. However, the mass balances of the two glaciers differed considerably. The differences in mass balance between the glaciers appear closely related to local climatic factors (different local moisture recycling and different seasonal distributions of precipitation) and glacier topography (the leeward/windward slopes and different elevations of the accumulation and

  10. Inductive analysis about the impact of climate warming on regional geomorphic evolution in arid area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anayit, Mattohti; Abulizi, Mailiya

    2016-04-01

    Climate change on the surface of earth will produce a chain reaction among so many global natural environmental elements. Namely, all the issues will be affected by the climate change, just like the regional water environment, formation and development of landscape, plants and animals living environment, the survival of microorganisms, the human economic environment and health, and the whole social environment changes at well. But because of slow frequency of climate change and it is volatility change, its influence on other factors and the overall environmental performance is not obvious, and its reflection performs slowly. Using regional weather data, we calculated qualitatively and quantitatively and did analysis the impact of climate warming on Xinjiang (a province of China) geomorphic evolution elements, including the ground weather, erosion rate, collapse change, landslide occurrences changes and impact debris flow, combining the field survey and indoor test methods. Key words: climate change; the geomorphic induction; landscape change in river basin; Xinjiang

  11. Quantification of climate tourism potential of Croatia based on measured data and regional modeling.

    PubMed

    Brosy, Caroline; Zaninovic, Ksenija; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2014-08-01

    Tourism is one of the most important economic sectors in Croatia. The Adriatic coast is a popular travel destination for tourists, especially during the summer months. During their activities, tourists are affected by atmospheric conditions and therefore by weather and climate. Therefore, it is important to have reliable information about thermal conditions as well as their impacts on human beings. Here, the climate tourism potential of Croatia is presented and quantified on the basis of three selected stations in different climatic regions. The physiologically equivalent temperature is used for analysis as well as other climatic parameters relevant for tourism and recreation. The results already point to hot conditions for outdoor activities in summer during afternoons, especially along the coast but also for continental regions, resulting in a reduction of the climate tourism potential. In the future, this trend looks set to increase, possibly leading to a changing tourism sector in Croatia requiring adaptation and new strategies. PMID:24113738

  12. Quantification of climate tourism potential of Croatia based on measured data and regional modeling.

    PubMed

    Brosy, Caroline; Zaninovic, Ksenija; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2014-08-01

    Tourism is one of the most important economic sectors in Croatia. The Adriatic coast is a popular travel destination for tourists, especially during the summer months. During their activities, tourists are affected by atmospheric conditions and therefore by weather and climate. Therefore, it is important to have reliable information about thermal conditions as well as their impacts on human beings. Here, the climate tourism potential of Croatia is presented and quantified on the basis of three selected stations in different climatic regions. The physiologically equivalent temperature is used for analysis as well as other climatic parameters relevant for tourism and recreation. The results already point to hot conditions for outdoor activities in summer during afternoons, especially along the coast but also for continental regions, resulting in a reduction of the climate tourism potential. In the future, this trend looks set to increase, possibly leading to a changing tourism sector in Croatia requiring adaptation and new strategies.

  13. Quantification of climate tourism potential of Croatia based on measured data and regional modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brosy, Caroline; Zaninovic, Ksenija; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2014-08-01

    Tourism is one of the most important economic sectors in Croatia. The Adriatic coast is a popular travel destination for tourists, especially during the summer months. During their activities, tourists are affected by atmospheric conditions and therefore by weather and climate. Therefore, it is important to have reliable information about thermal conditions as well as their impacts on human beings. Here, the climate tourism potential of Croatia is presented and quantified on the basis of three selected stations in different climatic regions. The physiologically equivalent temperature is used for analysis as well as other climatic parameters relevant for tourism and recreation. The results already point to hot conditions for outdoor activities in summer during afternoons, especially along the coast but also for continental regions, resulting in a reduction of the climate tourism potential. In the future, this trend looks set to increase, possibly leading to a changing tourism sector in Croatia requiring adaptation and new strategies.

  14. Regional Climate Predictability in the Extratropics

    SciTech Connect

    Robertson,A.W.:Ghil,M.

    2001-08-09

    The goal of this project was to develop a dynamical framework for extratropical climate predictability on decade-to-century timescales and subcontinental spatial scales,besed on the intraseasonal dynamics of the midlatitude atmosphere and their interaction with the ocean's longer timescales.A two-pronged approach was taken,based on (a)idealized,quasi-geostrophic,coupled models of the midlatitude ocean-atmosphere system,and(b)analysis of GCM results.

  15. Current climate and climate change over India as simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexandru, Adelina; Sushama, Laxmi

    2014-09-01

    The performance of the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) in reproducing the main climatic characteristics over India during the southwest (SW)-, post- and pre-monsoon seasons are presented in this article. To assess the performance of CRCM5, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and Interim re-analysis (ERA-Interim) driven CRCM5 simulation is compared against independent observations and reanalysis data for the 1971-2000 period. Projected changes for two future periods, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, with respect to the 1971-2000 current period are assessed based on two transient climate change simulations of CRCM5 spanning the 1950-2100 period. These two simulations are driven by the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Low Resolution Model (MPI-ESM-LR), respectively. The boundary forcing errors associated with errors in the driving global climate models are also studied by comparing the 1971-2000 period of the CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR driven simulations with that of the CRCM5 simulation driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim. Results show that CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is in general able to capture well the temporal and spatial patterns of 2 m-temperature, precipitation, wind, sea level pressure, total runoff and soil moisture over India in comparison with available reanalysis and observations. However, some noticeable differences between the model and observational data were found during the SW-monsoon season within the domain of integration. CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is 1-2 °C colder than CRU observations and generates more precipitation over the Western Ghats and central regions of India, and not enough in the northern and north-eastern parts of India and along the Konkan west coast in comparison with the observed precipitation. The monsoon onset seems to be relatively well captured over the southwestern coast of India

  16. Current climate and climate change over India as simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexandru, Adelina; Sushama, Laxmi

    2015-08-01

    The performance of the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) in reproducing the main climatic characteristics over India during the southwest (SW)-, post- and pre-monsoon seasons are presented in this article. To assess the performance of CRCM5, European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re- Analysis (ERA- 40) and Interim re-analysis (ERA-Interim) driven CRCM5 simulation is compared against independent observations and reanalysis data for the 1971-2000 period. Projected changes for two future periods, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, with respect to the 1971-2000 current period are assessed based on two transient climate change simulations of CRCM5 spanning the 1950-2100 period. These two simulations are driven by the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Low Resolution Model (MPI-ESM-LR), respectively. The boundary forcing errors associated with errors in the driving global climate models are also studied by comparing the 1971-2000 period of the CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR driven simulations with that of the CRCM5 simulation driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim. Results show that CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is in general able to capture well the temporal and spatial patterns of 2 m-temperature, precipitation, wind, sea level pressure, total runoff and soil moisture over India in comparison with available reanalysis and observations. However, some noticeable differences between the model and observational data were found during the SW-monsoon season within the domain of integration. CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is 1-2 °C colder than CRU observations and generates more precipitation over the Western Ghats and central regions of India, and not enough in the northern and north-eastern parts of India and along the Konkan west coast in comparison with the observed precipitation. The monsoon onset seems to be relatively well captured over the southwestern coast of

  17. Natural responses to Quaternary climatic change in the Nevada Test Site region

    SciTech Connect

    Gibson, J.D.

    1993-12-31

    Migration of hazardous contaminants within geologic settings depends on natural processes. Climatic fluctuations can affect the magnitudes and rates of many of these processes. In any long-term environmental evaluation of natural processes, responses to climatic change must be considered. Four generalized categories of natural responses to Quaternary climatic change are recognized for the Nevada Test Site (NTS) region of southwestern Nevada and adjacent California: (1) biologic, (2) geomorphic, (3) hydrologic (including surface and subsurface) and (4) pedologic/diagenetic. Specific examples that correspond to the four categories illustrate the broad range of complex natural processes the are affected by climatic change. These responses dictate the potential effects of climatic change on contaminant transport, effects that are being examined by existing and planned environmental-restoration and waste-management programs within the region. Regulatory requirements for many of these programs include long-term (>10,000-year) waste isolation because of radiologic components. The purpose here is not to be exhaustive in documenting all known natural responses to climatic change in the NTS region, but rather to give a flavor of the scope of interdisciplinary and interrelated fields of Quaternary science that must be considered in evaluating the possible effects of climatic change on long-term environmental programs.

  18. Impacts of climate change on infrastructure in permafrost regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beloloutskaia, M.; Anisimov, O.

    2003-04-01

    There is a growing evidence of enhanced warming over the permafrost regions, and significant impacts on natural and human systems are expected. Changes in the temperature, distribution, and depth of seasonal thawing of permafrost will have direct and immediate implications for the infrastructure built upon it. The mechanical strength of permafrost decreases with warming, resulting in damage to and possible failure of buildings, pipelines, and transportation facilities. Extensive infrastructure was developed in the Arctic largely in association with the extraction and transportation industries. Several large cities in Russia with few hundred thousand population are of particular concern since many buildings there have already been affected by the changes in permafrost properties. Detrimental changes in permafrost conditions are often not abrupt. Instead, they evolve gradually and can be predicted and monitored, allowing avoidance of catastrophic events and mitigation of negative consequences. Climate-induced threats to infrastructure in permafrost regions may be evaluated using a numerical "settlement" index, Iset, which allows to classify modern permafrost with respect to its potential for thermokarst development: Iset = dZ * W, where dZ is the relative change in the depth of seasonal thawing predicted by permafrost model for the conditions of the future climate and W is the volumetric proportion of near surface soil occupied by ground ice. Permafrost model of intermediate complexity (Koudriavtcev's model) was used with selected GCM-based scenarios of climate change to construct predictive maps of "settlement" index for the mid-21st century. Circumpolar permafrost area was partitioned into zones of high, moderate, and low hazard potential. Despite discrepancies in details, all scenarios yield a zone in the high-risk category distributed discontinuously around the margins of the Arctic Ocean, indicating high potential for coastal erosion. Several population centers

  19. Heating up Climate Literacy Education: Understanding Teachers' and Students' Motivational and Affective Response to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sinatra, G. M.

    2011-12-01

    Changing students' ideas about controversial scientific issues, such as human-induced climate change, presents unique challenges for educators (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010; Sinatra & Mason, 2008). First, climate science is complex and requires "systems thinking," or the ability to think and reason abstractly about emergent systems (Goldstone & Sakamoto, 2003). Appreciating the intricacies of complex systems and emergent processes has proven challenging for students (Chi, 2005). In addition to these challenges, there are specific misconceptions that may lead thinking astray on the issue of global climate change, such as the distinction between weather and climate (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010). As an example, when students are asked about their views on climate change, they often recall individual storm events or very cold periods and use their personal experiences and recollections of short-term temperature fluctuations to assess whether the planet is warming. Beyond the conceptual difficulties, controversial topics offer another layer of challenge. Such topics are often embedded in complex socio-cultural and political contexts, have a high degree of uncertainty, and may be perceived by individuals as in conflict with their personal or religious beliefs (Levinson, 2006, Sinatra, Kardash, Taasoobshirazi, & Lombardi, 2011). Individuals are often committed to their own views on socio-scientific issues and this commitment may serve as a motivation to actively resist new ideas (Dole & Sinatra, 1998). Individuals may also have strong emotions associated with their misconceptions (Broughton, Pekrun, & Sinatra, 2011). Negative emotions, misconceptions, and resistance do not make a productive combination for learning. Further, teachers who find human-induced climate change implausible have been shown to hold negative emotions about having to teach about climate change (Lombardi & Sinatra, in preparation), which could affect how they present the topic to students. In this

  20. Impacts on regional climate of Amazon deforestation

    SciTech Connect

    Dickinson, R.E.; Kennedy, P. NCAR, Boulder, CO )

    1992-10-01

    A simulation of the climate response to Amazon deforestation has been carried out. Precipitation is decreased on the average by 25 percent or 1.4 mm/day, with ET and runoff both decreasing by 0.7 mm/day. Modifications of surface energy balance through change of albedo and roughness are complicated by cloud feedbacks. The initial decrease of the absorption of solar radiation by higher surface albedos is largely cancelled by a reduction in cloud cover, but consequent reduction in downward longwave has a substantial impact on surface energy balance. Smoke aerosols might have an effect comparable to deforestation during burning season. 8 refs.

  1. Regional climate model performance in the Lake Victoria basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Karina; Chamberlain, Jill; Buontempo, Carlo; Bain, Caroline

    2015-03-01

    Lake Victoria, the second largest freshwater lake in the world, plays a crucial role in the hydrology of equatorial eastern Africa. Understanding how climate change may alter rainfall and evaporation patterns is thus of vital importance for the economic development and the livelihood of the region. Regional rainfall distribution appears, up to a large extent, to be controlled by local drivers which may be not well resolved in general circulation model simulations. We investigate the performance over the Lake Victoria basin of an ensemble of UK Met Office Hadley Centre regional climate model (HadRM3P) simulations at 50 km, driven by five members of the Hadley Centre global perturbed-physics ensemble (QUMP). This is part of the validation of an ensemble of simulations that has been used to assess the impacts of climate change over the continent over the period 1950-2099. We find that the regional climate model is able to simulate a lake/land breeze over Lake Victoria, which is a significant improvement over the driving global climate model and a vital step towards reproducing precipitation characteristics in the region. The local precipitation correlates well with large-scale processes in the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean, which is in agreement with observations. We find that the spatial pattern of precipitation in the region and the diurnal cycle of convection is well represented although the amount of rainfall over the lake appears to be overestimated in most seasons. Reducing the observational uncertainty in precipitation over the lake through future field campaigns would enable this model bias to be better quantified. We conclude that increasing the spatial resolution of the model significantly improves its ability to simulate the current climate of the Lake Victoria basin. We suggest that, despite the higher computational costs, the inclusion of a model which allows two-way interactions between the lake and its surroundings should be seriously considered for

  2. Decadal-Interdecadal SST Variability and Regional Climate Teleconnections

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.; Weng, H.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Dominant modes of decadal and interdecadal SST variability and their impacts on summertime rainfall variability over East Asia and the North America are studied. Two dominant modes of interdecadal SST variability, one associated with El Nino-like warming in the global oceans and one with an east-west seesaw variation in the equatorial Pacific have been identified. The first mode is associated in part with a long-term warming trend in the topical oceans and cooling over the northern Pacific. The second mode suggests an westward shift and strengthening of the Walker circulation from 1960s to the 1980s. Over East Asian, the first SST mode is correlated with reduced rainfall in northern China and excessive rainfall in central China. This SST mode is also associated with the tendency for increased rainfall over the midwest region, and reduced rainfall over the east Coast of the US. The results suggest a teleconnection pattern which links the occurrences of drought and floods over the Asian monsoon and the US summertime time climate. This teleconnection is likely to be associated with decadal variability of the East Asian jetstream, which are affected by strong land surface heating over the Siberian region, as well as El Nino-like SST forcings. The occurrences of major droughts and floods in the East Asian and US continent in recent decades are discussed in light of the above teleconnection patterns.

  3. Did closure of the Mediterranean affect global climate?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivanovic, R.; Valdes, P. J.; Flecker, R.; Gutjahr, M.

    2011-12-01

    Throughout the Cenozoic, progressive tectonic restriction of the Mediterranean dramatically modified the salinity and volume of Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) entering the North Atlantic, culminating in the Messinian Salinity Crisis 6-5 Ma. Modelling studies and proxy reconstructions suggest that at times MOW played a crucial role in maintaining North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation; for example, strengthening Atlantic overturning during periods of enhanced water column stratification (e.g. Rogerson et al., 2010). We use Late Miocene end-member MOW conditions to examine the impact of salinity and volumetric changes in MOW on Atlantic thermohaline circulation and global climate. Thus, by matching our modelled MOW characteristics to Late Miocene stratigraphic and proxy reconstructions (including our neodymium isotope record), our work achieves the dual target of: 1) Assessing model sensitivity to changes in MOW. 2) Evaluating the impact of Cenozoic Mediterranean gateway dynamics on global climate. We have run 16 simulations using HadCM3, the UK Met Office's fully coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM, each lasting 500-2000 years and containing inert tracers. In these experiments, we varied Mediterranean salinity (5-380 psu) and Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange volume (0-4x control). Our results do not support previous findings that 'intensification' of MOW causes North Atlantic overturning circulation to strengthen and warm the North-Atlantic/Greenland region (e.g. Bigg and Wadley, 2001; Rahmstorf, 1998; Johnson, 1997). Furthermore, increasing MOW salinity results in strong bifurcation and deepening of the high salinity MOW 'plume' in the North Atlantic, whereas decreasing MOW salinity causes the main 'plume' to shallow and reroute northwards, feeding directly into the Norwegian Sea. Following on from this, we use the Messinian Salinity Crisis as a test case for evaluating the impact of palaeo-gateway closure on ocean circulation and global climate, using a suite of

  4. Modeled regional climate change and California endemic oak ranges.

    PubMed

    Kueppers, Lara M; Snyder, Mark A; Sloan, Lisa C; Zavaleta, Erika S; Fulfrost, Brian

    2005-11-01

    In the coming century, anthropogenic climate change will threaten the persistence of restricted endemic species, complicating conservation planning. Although most efforts to quantify potential shifts in species' ranges use global climate model (GCM) output, regional climate model (RCM) output may be better suited to predicting shifts by restricted species, particularly in regions with complex topography or other regionally important climate-forcing factors. Using a RCM-based future climate scenario, we found that potential ranges of two California endemic oaks, Quercus douglasii and Quercus lobata, shrink considerably (to 59% and 54% of modern potential range sizes, respectively) and shift northward. This result is markedly different from that obtained by using a comparable GCM-based scenario, under which these species retain 81% and 73% of their modern potential range sizes, respectively. The difference between RCM- and GCM-based scenarios is due to greater warming and larger precipitation decreases during the growing season predicted by the RCM in these species' potential ranges. Based on the modeled regional climate change, <50% of protected land area currently containing these species is expected to contain them under a future midrange "business-as-usual" path of greenhouse gas emissions.

  5. Atmospheric and Climate Aspects of Russian Regions Sustainability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Golitsyn, G. S.; Dubovsky, S. V.; Ginzburg, A. S.; Mokhov, I. I.; Khomyakov, P. M.

    Russia is one of the first countries created the national program of sustainable devel- opment. The Presidential Decree SOn the national strategy of the Russian Federation & cedil;in the environment protection and sustainable developmentT was issued by in 1994. Atmospheric and climate aspects play very important roles in the sustainable devel- opment at the regional level in Russia as well as at national one. Last year Russian Academy of Sciences in collaboration with some leaders of the local Russian au- thorities started the Project SSustainable development of Russia and its regionsT. In & cedil; this project the problems of Russian socio-economical development are considered together with regional atmospheric and climate changes, environmental and natural resources, population, urbanization, energetic and new technology development, and so on. The main problems of Russian regions socio-economical development related to global and local climate changes, environmental and natural resources, urbanization will be discussed.

  6. Potential climatic impacts of vegetation change: A regional modeling study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Copeland, J.H.; Pielke, R.A.; Kittel, T.G.F.

    1996-01-01

    The human species has been modifying the landscape long before the development of modern agrarian techniques. Much of the land area of the conterminous United States is currently used for agricultural production. In certain regions this change in vegetative cover from its natural state may have led to local climatic change. A regional climate version of the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System was used to assess the impact of a natural versus current vegetation distribution on the weather and climate of July 1989. The results indicate that coherent regions of substantial changes, of both positive and negative sign, in screen height temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation are a possible consequence of land use change throughout the United States. The simulated changes in the screen height quantities were closely related to changes in the vegetation parameters of albedo, roughness length, leaf area index, and fractional coverage. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

  7. Factors Affecting the Sensitivity of Permafrost to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jorgenson, T.; Romanovsky, V.; Harden, J.; Shur, Y.; Hinzman, L.; Marchenko, S.; Bolton, R.; O'Donnell, J.

    2009-05-01

    Permafrost aggradation and degradation are affected by numerous geomorphological and ecological properties of the landscape that confound our ability to accurately predict the response of permafrost to climate change. Permafrost can persist at mean annual air temperatures (MAAT) of +2 °C and can degrade at MAAT of -15 °C with the help of surface water. Permafrost is decoupled from the atmosphere by the active layer, thus, its thermal regime is mediated by numerous factors such as topography, soil texture, organic-matter accumulation, vegetation, snow, surface water, groundwater movement, and disturbance. Topography affects the amount of solar radiation to the soil surface, causing permafrost in the discontinuous zone to occur generally on north-facing slopes that receive less direct radiation and on flat, low- lying areas where vegetation and organic soils have a greater insulating effect and where air temperatures tend to be colder during winter inversions. Soil texture affects soil moisture and thermal properties. For instance, gravelly soils tend to be well-drained with little difference between thermal conductivities when frozen or thawed. In contrast, surface organic soils, as well as clayey and silty soils, in lowland areas tend to be poorly drained and have much higher thermal conductivities when frozen in winter than unfrozen in summer. In well- drained upland sites, however, organic soils typically are well below saturation. Differences in frozen and unfrozen thermal conductivities lead to more rapid heat loss in winter, depending on snow, and slower heat penetration in summer. Vegetation has important effects through interception of solar radiation, growth of mosses, accumulation of organic matter, and interception of snow by trees and shrubs. Snow protects soil from cooling in winter. Thus, the seasonality (e.g., timing of snowfall in early winter) and depth of snow are very important. Surface water provides an important positive feedback that enhances

  8. Sensitivity of the climate response to regional aerosol emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasoar, Matthew; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Shindell, Drew; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shawki, Dilshad

    2015-04-01

    Short-lived emissions like aerosols and their precursors have inhomogeneous distributions in the atmosphere. As a result, aerosol radiative forcing of the climate is highly uneven, and depends on both the location of emission as well as circulation patterns. Unlike well-mixed greenhouse gases such as CO2, the climate response to aerosol forcing may therefore be very dependent on the source region, and so understanding how the sensitivity of the climate varies with emission and forcing location has implications for the design of policy regarding short-lived climate forcers, as well as for understanding the coupling between radiative forcing and climate response. Using the UK Met Office's HadGEM3 composition-climate model, we have performed a series of experiments to investigate the climate response to aerosol species from different key anthropogenic emission regions, in particular East Asia, South Asia, the USA, and the whole northern mid-latitude band. Recent results from these simulations will be presented, focusing in particular on the patterns of climate forcing due to Asian anthropogenic emissions, and the resulting responses in surface temperature and precipitation. Large-scale circulation changes, driven by regional temperature gradients, are found to play an important role in explaining the observed climate responses, which can be substantial even in in parts of the world far from the location of the forcing. The correct magnitude of aerosol forcing remains, however, one of the greatest uncertainties in our current understanding of anthropogenic influences on climate. Aerosol radiative forcing varies considerably between different composition-climate models, and to explore the implications of this for climate responses we use the GISS Model-E2 and NCAR CESM1 models in addition to HadGEM3. These reveal a remarkable variation in the simulated climate response as a result of differences in the radiative forcing from identical perturbations to regional sulphate

  9. Impact of climate Change on Groundwater Recharge in the Tiber River Basin (Central Italy) Using Regional Climate model Outputs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muluneh, F. B.; Setegn, S. G.; Melesse, A. M.; Fiori, A.

    2011-12-01

    Quantification of the various components of hydrological processes in a watershed remains a challenging topic as the hydrological system is altered by many internal and external drivers. Changes in climate variables can affect the quantity and quality of various components of hydrological cycle. Among others, the local effects of climate change on groundwater resources were not fully studied in different part of the world as compared to the surface water. Moreover, understanding the potential impact of climate change on groundwater is more complex than surface water. The main objective of this study is to analyze the potential impact of climate change on Groundwater recharge in the Tiber River Basin using outputs from Regional Climate model. In this study, a physically-based watershed model called Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to estimate recharge characteristics and its response to climate change in Tiber River Basin (central Italy). The SWAT model was successfully calibrated and validated using observed weather and flow data for the period of 1963-1970 and 1971-1978 respectively. During calibration, the model was highly sensitivity to groundwater flow parameters. Dynamically downscaled rainfall and temperature datasets from ten Regional Climate Models (RCM) archived in 'Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects (PRUDENCE)' were used to force the model to assess the climate change impact on the study area. A quantile-mapping statistical correction procedure was applied to the RCM dataset to correct the inherent systematic biases. The climate change analysis indicated that by the end of 2080s the rainfall was found to decrease nearly up to 40% in dry period and there was an increase in temperature that could reach as high as 3 to 5 oC. By the end of 2080s the ground water recharge shows a decreasing trend as a response to changes in rainfall. However as the timing of both precipitation and

  10. Regional Impacts of Climate Change in the Caribou Chilcotin Region, Fraser River Basin, BC, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bennett, K. E.; Werner, A. T.; Salathé, E. P.; Schnorbus, M.; Nelitz, M.; David, R. R.

    2009-05-01

    The terrain and climate of British Columbia (BC) is some of the most complex in the country, and is likely going to face unprecedented changes in hydrology due to the impacts of climate change. The Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) was formed in 2005 to produce tools to determine how water resources in BC and its surrounding provinces, territories and states are being affected by climate change. PCIC's first large-scale watershed modelling project implemented, in collaboration with the River Forecast Centre and the University of Washington, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model in several major BC watersheds. Future scenarios were developed to analyse the impacts of climate change on snowpack, streamflow and soil moisture in these basins. The current study focuses on the methods to develop future scenarios and the results of the hydrologic modelling. Six different GCM emissions scenarios were selected for BC from the AR4 scenarios. A modified bias correction and statistical downscaling (BCSD) technique created at the University of Washington was used to downscale GCM results to the scale of gridded historical forcings data to generate transient-daily time step, regional-scale projections of future climate change. These forcings were then used to drive the VIC macro-scale hydrologic model. A comparison of forcings for the historical period (1961-1990) from the downscaled GCM data to the forcings created from the observed records on the monthly-timescale demonstrated that the downscaled data captured the range of variability present in the 1961-1990 period in large and medium sized basins quite well. Accurately downscaling data for application in small basins was more difficult. Daily results created with the original BCSD technique were unrealistic in places and problematic for application in hydrologic models, such as VIC that depend on an accurate daily temperature range to model evaporation and snowpack. Results for the Fraser Basin study include

  11. Regional Climate Model Projections for the State of Washington

    SciTech Connect

    Salathe, E.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Qian, Yun; Zhang, Yongxin

    2010-05-05

    Global climate models do not have sufficient spatial resolution to represent the atmospheric and land surface processes that determine the unique regional heterogeneity of the climate of the State of Washington. If future large-scale weather patterns interact differently with the local terrain and coastlines than current weather patterns, local changes in temperature and precipitation could be quite different from the coarse-scale changes projected by global models. Regional climate models explicitly simulate the interactions between the large-scale weather patterns simulated by a global model and the local terrain. We have performed two 100-year climate simulations using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). One simulation is forced by the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) and the second is forced by a simulation of the Max Plank Institute, Hamburg, global model (ECHAM5). The mesoscale simulations produce regional changes in snow cover, cloudiness, and circulation patterns associated with interactions between the large-scale climate change and the regional topography and land-water contrasts. These changes substantially alter the temperature and precipitation trends over the region relative to the global model result or statistical downscaling. To illustrate this effect, we analyze the changes from the current climate (1970-1999) to the mid 21st century (2030-2059). Changes in seasonal-mean temperature, precipitation, and snowpack are presented. Several climatological indices of extreme daily weather are also presented: precipitation intensity, fraction of precipitation occurring in extreme daily events, heat wave frequency, growing season length, and frequency of warm nights. Despite somewhat different changes in seasonal precipitation and temperature from the two regional simulations, consistent results for changes in snowpack and extreme precipitation are found in

  12. Projections of African drought extremes in CORDEX regional climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gbobaniyi, Emiola; Nikulin, Grigory; Jones, Colin; Kjellström, Erik

    2013-04-01

    We investigate trends in drought extremes for different climate regions of the African continent over a combined historical and future period 1951-2100. Eight CMIP5 coupled atmospheric global climate models (CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, NorESM1-M, EC-EARTH, MIROC5, GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-LR) under two forcing scenarios, the relative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, with spatial resolution varying from about 1° to 3° are downscaled to 0.44° resolution by the Rossby Centre (SMHI) regional climate model RCA4. We use data from the ensuing ensembles of CORDEX-Africa regional climate simulations to explore three drought indices namely: standardized precipitation index (SPI), moisture index (MI) and difference in precipitation and evaporation (P-E). Meteorological and agricultural drought conditions are assessed in our analyses and a climate change signal is obtained for the SPI by calculating gamma functions for future SPI with respect to a baseline present climate. Results for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are inter-compared to assess uncertainties in the future projections. We show that there is a pronounced sensitivity to the choice of forcing GCM which indicates that assessments of future drought conditions in Africa would benefit from large model ensembles. We also note that the results are sensitive to the choice of drought index. We discuss both spatial and temporal variability of drought extremes for different climate zones of Africa and the importance of the ensemble mean. Our study highlights the usefulness of CORDEX simulations in identifying possible future impacts of climate at local and regional scales.

  13. Affective Learning in Higher Education: A Regional Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Evans, Nina; Ziaian, Tahereh; Sawyer, Janet; Gillham, David

    2013-01-01

    A pilot study was conducted in a regional university setting to promote awareness of the value of affective teaching and learning amongst staff and students. Academic staff and students from diverse disciplines at University of South Australia's (UniSA) Centre for Regional Engagement (CRE) were recruited to the study. The research investigated…

  14. Protecting health from climate change in the WHO European Region.

    PubMed

    Wolf, Tanja; Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Williams, Eloise; Menne, Bettina

    2014-06-01

    "How far are we in implementing climate change and health action in the WHO European Region?" This was the question addressed to representatives of WHO European Member States of the working group on health in climate change (HIC). Twenty-two Member States provided answers to a comprehensive questionnaire that focused around eight thematic areas (Governance; Vulnerability, impact and adaptation (health) assessments; Adaptation strategies and action plans; Climate change mitigation; Strengthening health systems; Raising awareness and building capacity; Greening health services; and Sharing best practices). Strong areas of development are climate change vulnerability and impact assessments, as well as strengthening health systems and awareness raising. Areas where implementation would benefit from further action are the development of National Health Adaptation Plans, greening health systems, sharing best practice and reducing greenhouse gas emissions in other sectors. At the Parma Conference in 2010, the European Ministerial Commitment to Act on climate change and health and the European Regional Framework for Action to protect health from climate change were endorsed by fifty three European Member States. The results of this questionnaire are the most comprehensive assessment so far of the progress made by WHO European Member States to protecting public health from climate change since the agreements in Parma and the World Health Assembly Resolution in 2008.

  15. Climate-Smart Landscapes for Managing Water Resources in the Tea Growing Regions of Northeast India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gupta, N.; Biggs, E. M.; Saikia, S. D.; Duncan, J.

    2015-12-01

    Tea is an important global agricultural commodity, both commercially and culturally. Assam, an agrarian state in northeast India is the largest single tea growing region in the world and the productivity (both in terms of quantity and quality) requires a specific range of enviro-climatic conditions. Precipitation and temperature are two climate factors which highly influence productivity. Thus water plays a critical role in sustaining future tea production in Assam. Recently the region has been affected by heterogeneous spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation and rising temperatures. This has led to temporally varying drought-like conditions during the tea production season, reducing crop resilience and degrading yield quality. Quantifying regional climate-yield characteristics enables more effective decision-making regarding climate change mitigation, water resources management and adaptation to sustain (and enhance) future tea crop production. This research used a panel based regression model to statistically quantify the extent to which precipitation and temperature variables are associated with changes in tea yield. Monthly time-series climate and yield data were regressed for the period 2004 to 2014. Yield data were obtained from 80 tea estates across the four main tea growing regions of Assam, and 120 climate variables were selected for analysis. Results indicate that periods of drought (e.g. more than 10 consecutive days of zero precipitation) are significantly associated with reductions in yield, whereas periods of intense precipitation (e.g. number of days where the 95th percentile was exceeded) are generally associated with increased yield. These results have provided an enhanced understanding of climate-yield characteristics, which will subsequently be used to deliver more climate-smart advisory decision-support services to tea producers in the region. Although water resources management practices, such as water harvesting structures, check dams

  16. Regional projections of North Indian climate for adaptation studies.

    PubMed

    Mathison, Camilla; Wiltshire, Andrew; Dimri, A P; Falloon, Pete; Jacob, Daniela; Kumar, Pankaj; Moors, Eddy; Ridley, Jeff; Siderius, Christian; Stoffel, Markus; Yasunari, T

    2013-12-01

    Adaptation is increasingly important for regions around the world where large changes in climate could have an impact on populations and industry. The Brahmaputra-Ganges catchments have a large population, a main industry of agriculture and a growing hydro-power industry, making the region susceptible to changes in the Indian Summer Monsoon, annually the main water source. The HighNoon project has completed four regional climate model simulations for India and the Himalaya at high resolution (25km) from 1960 to 2100 to provide an ensemble of simulations for the region. In this paper we have assessed the ensemble for these catchments, comparing the simulations with observations, to give credence that the simulations provide a realistic representation of atmospheric processes and therefore future climate. We have illustrated how these simulations could be used to provide information on potential future climate impacts and therefore aid decision-making using climatology and threshold analysis. The ensemble analysis shows an increase in temperature between the baseline (1970-2000) and the 2050s (2040-2070) of between 2 and 4°C and an increase in the number of days with maximum temperatures above 28°C and 35°C. There is less certainty for precipitation and runoff which show considerable variability, even in this relatively small ensemble, spanning zero. The HighNoon ensemble is the most complete data for the region providing useful information on a wide range of variables for the regional climate of the Brahmaputra-Ganges region, however there are processes not yet included in the models that could have an impact on the simulations of future climate. We have discussed these processes and show that the range from the HighNoon ensemble is similar in magnitude to potential changes in projections where these processes are included. Therefore strategies for adaptation must be robust and flexible allowing for advances in the science and natural environmental changes.

  17. Regional projections of North Indian climate for adaptation studies.

    PubMed

    Mathison, Camilla; Wiltshire, Andrew; Dimri, A P; Falloon, Pete; Jacob, Daniela; Kumar, Pankaj; Moors, Eddy; Ridley, Jeff; Siderius, Christian; Stoffel, Markus; Yasunari, T

    2013-12-01

    Adaptation is increasingly important for regions around the world where large changes in climate could have an impact on populations and industry. The Brahmaputra-Ganges catchments have a large population, a main industry of agriculture and a growing hydro-power industry, making the region susceptible to changes in the Indian Summer Monsoon, annually the main water source. The HighNoon project has completed four regional climate model simulations for India and the Himalaya at high resolution (25km) from 1960 to 2100 to provide an ensemble of simulations for the region. In this paper we have assessed the ensemble for these catchments, comparing the simulations with observations, to give credence that the simulations provide a realistic representation of atmospheric processes and therefore future climate. We have illustrated how these simulations could be used to provide information on potential future climate impacts and therefore aid decision-making using climatology and threshold analysis. The ensemble analysis shows an increase in temperature between the baseline (1970-2000) and the 2050s (2040-2070) of between 2 and 4°C and an increase in the number of days with maximum temperatures above 28°C and 35°C. There is less certainty for precipitation and runoff which show considerable variability, even in this relatively small ensemble, spanning zero. The HighNoon ensemble is the most complete data for the region providing useful information on a wide range of variables for the regional climate of the Brahmaputra-Ganges region, however there are processes not yet included in the models that could have an impact on the simulations of future climate. We have discussed these processes and show that the range from the HighNoon ensemble is similar in magnitude to potential changes in projections where these processes are included. Therefore strategies for adaptation must be robust and flexible allowing for advances in the science and natural environmental changes. PMID

  18. Impact of regional climate change on human health

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patz, Jonathan A.; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A.

    2005-11-01

    The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.

  19. A regional approach to climate adaptation in the Nile Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butts, Michael B.; Buontempo, Carlo; Lørup, Jens K.; Williams, Karina; Mathison, Camilla; Jessen, Oluf Z.; Riegels, Niels D.; Glennie, Paul; McSweeney, Carol; Wilson, Mark; Jones, Richard; Seid, Abdulkarim H.

    2016-10-01

    The Nile Basin is one of the most important shared basins in Africa. Managing and developing the water resources within the basin must not only address different water uses but also the trade-off between developments upstream and water use downstream, often between different countries. Furthermore, decision-makers in the region need to evaluate and implement climate adaptation measures. Previous work has shown that the Nile flows can be highly sensitive to climate change and that there is considerable uncertainty in climate projections in the region with no clear consensus as to the direction of change. Modelling current and future changes in river runoff must address a number of challenges; including the large size of the basin, the relative scarcity of data, and the corresponding dramatic variety of climatic conditions and diversity in hydrological characteristics. In this paper, we present a methodology, to support climate adaptation on a regional scale, for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation potential for floods, droughts and water scarcity within the basin.

  20. Regional analysis of ground and above-ground climate

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-12-01

    The regional suitability of underground construction as a climate control technique is discussed with reference to (1) a bioclimatic analysis of long-term weather data for 29 locations in the United States to determine appropriate above ground climate control techniques, (2) a data base of synthesized ground temperatures for the coterminous United States, and (3) monthly dew point ground temperature comparisons for identifying the relative likelihood of condensation from one region to another. It is concluded that the suitability of earth tempering as a practice and of specific earth-sheltered design stereotypes varies geographically; while the subsurface almost always provides a thermal advantage on its own terms when compared to above ground climatic data, it can, nonetheless, compromise the effectiveness of other, regionally more important climate control techniques. Also contained in the report are reviews of above and below ground climate mapping schemes related to human comfort and architectural design, and detailed description of a theoretical model of ground temperature, heat flow, and heat storage in the ground. Strategies of passive climate control are presented in a discussion of the building bioclimatic analysis procedure which has been applied in a computer analysis of 30 years of weather data for each of 29 locations in the United States.

  1. Impact of regional climate change on human health.

    PubMed

    Patz, Jonathan A; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A

    2005-11-17

    The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.

  2. Regional Analysis of Energy, Water, Land and Climate Interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tidwell, V. C.; Averyt, K.; Harriss, R. C.; Hibbard, K. A.; Newmark, R. L.; Rose, S. K.; Shevliakova, E.; Wilson, T.

    2014-12-01

    Energy, water, and land systems interact in many ways and are impacted by management and climate change. These systems and their interactions often differ in significant ways from region-to-region. To explore the coupled energy-water-land system and its relation to climate change and management a simple conceptual model of demand, endowment and technology (DET) is proposed. A consistent and comparable analysis framework is needed as climate change and resource management practices have the potential to impact each DET element, resource, and region differently. These linkages are further complicated by policy and trade agreements where endowments of one region are used to meet demands in another. This paper reviews the unique DET characteristics of land, energy and water resources across the United States. Analyses are conducted according to the eight geographic regions defined in the 2014 National Climate Assessment. Evident from the analyses are regional differences in resources endowments in land (strong East-West gradient in forest, cropland and desert), water (similar East-West gradient), and energy. Demands likewise vary regionally reflecting differences in population density and endowment (e.g., higher water use in West reflecting insufficient precipitation to support dryland farming). The effect of technology and policy are particularly evident in differences in the energy portfolios across the eight regions. Integrated analyses that account for the various spatial and temporal differences in regional energy, water and land systems are critical to informing effective policy requirements for future energy, climate and resource management. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  3. Simulations of the future precipitation climate of the Central Andes using a coupled regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicholls, S.; Mohr, K. I.

    2014-12-01

    The meridional extent and complex orography of the South American continent contributes to a wide diversity of climate regimes ranging from hyper-arid deserts to tropical rainforests to sub-polar highland regions. Global climate models, although capable of resolving synoptic-scale South American climate features, are inadequate for fully-resolving the strong gradients between climate regimes and the complex orography which define the Tropical Andes given their low spatial and temporal resolution. Recent computational advances now make practical regional climate modeling with prognostic mesoscale atmosphere-ocean coupled models, such as the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system, to climate research. Previous work has shown COAWST to reasonably simulate the both the entire 2003-2004 wet season (Dec-Feb) as validated against both satellite and model analysis data. More recently, COAWST simulations have also been shown to sensibly reproduce the entire annual cycle of rainfall (Oct 2003 - Oct 2004) with historical climate model input. Using future global climate model input for COAWST, the present work involves year-long cycle spanning October to October for the years 2031, 2059, and 2087 assuming the most likely regional climate pathway (RCP): RCP 6.0. COAWST output is used to investigate how global climate change impacts the spatial distribution, precipitation rates, and diurnal cycle of precipitation patterns in the Central Andes vary in these yearly "snapshots". Initial results show little change to precipitation coverage or its diurnal cycle, however precipitation amounts did tend drier over the Brazilian Plateau and wetter over the Western Amazon and Central Andes. These results suggest potential adjustments to large-scale climate features (such as the Bolivian High).

  4. Climate warming affects biological invasions by shifting interactions of plants and herbivores.

    PubMed

    Lu, Xinmin; Siemann, Evan; Shao, Xu; Wei, Hui; Ding, Jianqing

    2013-08-01

    Plants and herbivorous insects can each be dramatically affected by temperature. Climate warming may impact plant invasion success directly but also indirectly through changes in their natural enemies. To date, however, there are no tests of how climate warming shifts the interactions among invasive plants and their natural enemies to affect invasion success. Field surveys covering the full latitudinal range of invasive Alternanthera philoxeroides in China showed that a beetle introduced for biocontrol was rare or absent at higher latitudes. In contrast, plant cover and mass increased with latitude. In a 2-year field experiment near the northern limit of beetle distribution, we found the beetle sustained populations across years under elevated temperature, dramatically decreasing A. philoxeroides growth, but it failed to overwinter in ambient temperature. Together, these results suggest that warming will allow the natural enemy to expand its range, potentially benefiting biocontrol in regions that are currently too cold for the natural enemy. However, the invader may also expand its range further north in response to warming. In such cases where plants tolerate cold better than their natural enemies, the geographical gap between plant and herbivorous insect ranges may not disappear but will shift to higher latitudes, leading to a new zone of enemy release. Therefore, warming will not only affect plant invasions directly but also drive either enemy release or increase that will result in contrasting effects on invasive plants. The findings are also critical for future management of invasive species under climate change.

  5. The WASCAL regional climate simulations for West Africa - how to add value to existing climate projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnault, J.; Heinzeller, D.; Klein, C.; Dieng, D.; Smiatek, G.; Bliefernicht, J.; Sylla, M. B.; Kunstmann, H.

    2015-12-01

    With climate change being one of the most severe challenges to rural Africa in the 21st century, West Africa is facing an urgent need to develop effective adaptation and mitigation measures to protect its constantly growing population. WASCAL (West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use) is a large-scale research-focused program designed to enhance the resilience of human and environmental systems to climate change and increased variability. An integral part of its climate services is the provisioning of a new set of high resolution, ensemble-based regional climate change scenarios for the region of West Africa. In this contribution, we present the overall concept of the WASCAL regional climate projections and provide information on the dissemination of the data. We discuss the model performance over the validation period for two of the three regional climate models employed, the Weather Research & Forecasting Tool (WRF) and the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling Model COSMO in Climate Mode (COSMO-CLM), and give details about a novel precipitation database used to verify the models. Particular attention is paid to the representation of the dynamics of the West African Summer Monsoon and to the added value of our high resolution models over existing data sets. We further present results on the climate change signal obtained from the WRF model runs for the periods 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 and compare them to current state-of-the-art projections from the CORDEX project. As an example, the figure shows the different climate change signals obtained for the total annual rainfall with respect to the 1980-2010 mean (WRF-E: WASCAL 12km high-resolution run MPI-ESM + WRFV3.5.1, CORDEX-E: 50km medium-resolution run MPI-ESM + RCA4, CORDEX-G: 50km medium-resolution run GFDL-ESM + RCA4).

  6. Regional Climatic Effects of Crop Growth Modeled by the Coupled CWRF-CROP System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, M.; Liang, X.; Gao, W.

    2011-12-01

    Many studies have been done on the crop responses to climate change and variability using off-line crop growth models. However the activities of crop growth impose significant influences on weather and climate on global, regional, and local scales by changing the physical characteristics of the land surface and modulating the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Therefore it is essential to study the climate-crop interactions using fully coupled climate-crop models. In this study, the cotton growth model, GOSSYM (an acronym from the word Gossypium, the genus of cotton), re-engineered in software with improved physical processes was coupled with the state-of-the-art Climate extension of the Weather and Research Forecasting model (CWRF). We used the fully coupled CWRF-CROP modeling system to investigate the comprehensive feedbacks to local and regional climate from the seasonal changes in land cover characteristics caused by crop growth, including roughness and displacement, surface albedo, root depth and density, photosynthesis, and irrigation. The preliminary results showed that crop growth greatly alters the radiaitive forcing, near surface aerodynamic processes, and surface and sub-surface hydrology, which affects local and regional climate.

  7. The Climatology of Climate Extremes in the World's Major Growing Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troy, T.; Zhu, X.

    2015-12-01

    A stable food supply is increasingly important as global populations grow and climate variability and extremes affect crop yields. It is therefore critical to quantify the occurrence of extremes in major growing regions globally to understand the vulnerability of the global food supply to climate. First, we grid the GHCN historical climate data and evaluate the effect of gridding on estimation of agriculturally relevant climate extremes, such as heat waves, consecutive dry days, and precipitation intensity. We find that the differences between gridded indices and the raw station indices are small, mostly less than 10%. We then evaluate the climatology of climate extremes and the probability of concurrent extremes, both within one growing region and across multiple regions globally. We find that the correlation of two precipitation or temperature related indices are quite strong, such that the probability of another extreme occurring increases given the occurrence of one extreme. These results provide estimations of the global food supply's vulnerability to climate variability and extremes, which is critical for planning in the coming decades with projections of more frequent and more intense climate extremes.

  8. Informing Decisions with a Climate Synthesis Product: Implications for Regional Climate Services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guido, Z.; Hill, D.; Crimmins, M.; Ferguson, D. B.

    2012-12-01

    The demand for regional climate information is increasing and spurring efforts to provide a broad slate of climate services that inform policy and resource management and elevate general knowledge. Routine syntheses of existing climate-related information may be an effective strategy for connecting climate information to decision making, but few studies have formally assessed their contribution to informing decisions. During the 2010-2011 winter, drought conditions expanded and intensified in Arizona and New Mexico, creating an opportunity to develop and evaluate a pithy, monthly regional climate communication product—La Niña Drought Tracker—that synthesized and interpreted drought and climate information. Six issues were published and subsequently evaluated through an online survey. On average, 417 people consulted the publication each month. Many of the survey respondents indicated that they made at least one drought-related decision, and the product at least moderately influenced the majority of those decisions, some of which helped mitigate economic losses and reduce climate vulnerability. The product also improved understanding of climate and drought for more than 90 percent of the respondents and helped the majority of them better prepare for drought. These, and other results demonstrate that routine interpretation and synthesis of existing climate information can help enhance access to and understanding and use of climate information in decision-making. Moreover, developing regional, contextual knowledge within climate service programs can facilitate the implementation of activities like the Tracker that enhance the use of climate information without engaging in time-consuming collaborative processes that can prevent the timely production of the services. We present results from the case study of the Tracker and place it within the context of the challenges and opportunities associated with providing climate services, particularly those services that

  9. Assessment of Regional Climatic and Hydrological Changes in the Eastern Himalayan Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agrawal, A.; Tayal, S.

    2014-12-01

    tools for factors affecting glacier melt rates are urgently needed for planning for climate change adaptation. The presentation will link the changing regional climate of Sikkim to the changing area and volume of the glaciers and the hydrology of the region. The results of our work can be used by hydrological modelers to predict the future water availability of the region.

  10. Determing Credibility of Regional Simulations of Future Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mearns, L. O.

    2009-12-01

    Climate models have been evaluated or validated ever since they were first developed. Establishing that a climate model can reproduce (some) aspects of the current climate of the earth on various spatial and temporal scales has long been a standard procedure for providing confidence in the model's ability to simulate future climate. However, direct links between the successes and failures of models in reproducing the current climate with regard to what future climates the models simulate has been largely lacking. This is to say that the model evaluation process has been largely divorced from the projections of future climate that the models produce. This is evidenced in the separation in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) WG1 report of the chapter on evaluation of models from the chapter on future climate projections. There has also been the assumption of 'one model, one vote, that is, that each model projection is given equal weight in any multi-model ensemble presentation of the projections of future climate. There have been various attempts at determing measures of credibility that would avoid the 'ultrademocratic' assumption of the IPCC. Simple distinctions between models were made by research such as in Giorgi and Mearns (2002), Tebaldi et al., (2005), and Greene et al., (2006). But the metrics used were rather simplistic. More ambitous means of discriminating among the quality of model simulations have been made through the production of complex multivariate metrics, but insufficent work has been produced to verify that the metrics successfully discriminate in meaningful ways. Indeed it has been suggested that we really don't know what a model must successfully model to establish confidence in its regional-scale projections (Gleckler et al., 2008). Perhaps a more process oriented regional expert judgment approach is needed to understand which errors in climate models really matter for the model's response to future forcing. Such an approach

  11. Climate change, water, and agriculture: a study of two contrasting regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirilenko, A.; Dronin, N.; Zhang, X.

    2009-12-01

    studying climate change impact on water resources of the region, and on the impacts of these changes on agriculture. The additional focus of our interest is Devils Lake watershed in North Dakota. Similar to Aral Sea, Devils Lake is an endorheic lake, which is heavily impacted by both the changes in climate and land conversion to agriculture. However, contrasting the dynamics of the Aral Sea, Devils Lake area has been increased dramatically in the past 70 years. We present regional projections of climate change, based on an analysis of a multimodel ensemble of GCM results, and the projections of consequent changes in performance of agriculture. We also discuss the differences in how the scenarios of socio-economic development affect the results of our modeling.

  12. Climate in Context - How partnerships evolve in regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parris, A. S.

    2014-12-01

    In 2015, NOAA's RISA program will celebrate its 20th year of exploration in the development of usable climate information. In the mid-1990s, a vision emerged to develop interdisciplinary research efforts at the regional scale for several important reasons. Recognizable climate patterns, such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), emerge at the regional level where our understanding of observations and models coalesce. Critical resources for society are managed in a context of regional systems, such as water supply and human populations. Multiple scales of governance (local, state, and federal) with complex institutional relationships can be examined across a region. Climate information (i.e. data, science, research etc) developed within these contexts has greater potential for use. All of this work rests on a foundation of iterative engagement between scientists and decision makers. Throughout these interactions, RISAs have navigated diverse politics, extreme events and disasters, socio-economic and ecological disruptions, and advances in both science and technology. Our understanding of information needs is evolving into a richer understanding of complex institutional, legal, political, and cultural contexts within which people can use science to make informed decisions. The outcome of RISA work includes both cases where climate information was used in decisions and cases where capacity for using climate information and making climate resilient decisions has increased over time. In addition to balancing supply and demand of scientific information, RISAs are engaged in a social process of reconciling climate information use with important drivers of society. Because partnerships are critical for sustained engagement, and because engagement is critically important to the use of science, the rapid development of new capacity in regionally-based science programs focused on providing climate decision support is both needed and challenging. New actors can bolster

  13. The present-day climate of Greenland : a study with a regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ettema, J.

    2010-04-01

    Present-day climate of Greenland Over the past 20 years, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has warmed. This temperature increase can be explained by an increase in downwelling longwave radiation due to a warmer overlying atmosphere. These temperature changes are strongly correlated to changes in the large scale circulation over the ice sheet. Since 1990, the melt has also strongly increased along the ice margins, inducing significant increase in runoff. With no significant change found in the total precipitation, the GrIS surface mass balance (SMB) decreased by 12 Gt yr-1 or 7 kg m-2 yr-1 since 1990. Locally, the SMB trend reaches -90 kg m-2 yr-1 at the western and eastern ice margins. These conclusions are drawn from a modelling study by Janneke Ettema, which discusses the present-day climate and surface mass balance of the GrIS. The emphasis of this research is on understanding the underlying physical processes. Using the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2/GR at high horizontal resolution (11km) has resulted in unprecedented detail in the ice sheet climatology and SMB. By incorporating processes such as percolation, retention and refreezing of meltwater in the surface parameterisation, the model explicitly calculates how these processes affect snow pack temperature, density and surface albedo. RACMO2/GR shows that the GrIS climate is spatially very variable. Characteristic for the ice sheet climate are the persistent katabatic winds and a quasi-permanent surface temperature deficit. Due to strong radiative cooling and turbulent heat transport towards the surface, the atmospheric boundary layer cools, providing optimal conditions for strong katabatic winds to occur. The strongest temperature deficit and wind speeds are found in the northeastern part of the ice sheet, whereas in the lower ablation zone the temperatures are more moderate due to surface melt and warm air advection. The high-resolution climate model revealed that the surface mass balance of the Gr

  14. Impact of climate change upon vector born diseases in Europe and Africa using ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andy

    2010-05-01

    Climate variability is an important component in determining the incidence of a number of diseases with significant human/animal health and socioeconomic impacts. The most important diseases affecting health are vector-borne, such as malaria, Rift Valley Fever and including those that are tick borne, with over 3 billion of the world population at risk. Malaria alone is responsible for at least one million deaths annually, with 80% of malaria deaths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa. The climate has a large impact upon the incidence of vector-borne diseases; directly via the development rates and survival of both the pathogen and the vector, and indirectly through changes in the environmental conditions. A large ensemble of regional climate model simulations has been produced within the ENSEMBLES project framework for both the European and African continent. This work will present recent progress in human and animal disease modelling, based on high resolution climate observations and regional climate simulations. Preliminary results will be given as an illustration, including the impact of climate change upon bluetongue (disease affecting the cattle) over Europe and upon malaria and Rift Valley Fever over Africa. Malaria scenarios based on RCM ensemble simulations have been produced for West Africa. These simulations have been carried out using the Liverpool Malaria Model. Future projections highlight that the malaria incidence decreases at the northern edge of the Sahel and that the epidemic belt is shifted southward in autumn. This could lead to significant public health problems in the future as the demography is expected to dramatically rise over Africa for the 21st century.

  15. Using NMME in Region-Specific Operational Seasonal Climate Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gronewold, A.; Bolinger, R. A.; Fry, L. M.; Kompoltowicz, K.

    2015-12-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) provides access to a suite of real-time monthly climate forecasts that comprise the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) in an attempt to meet increasing demands for monthly to seasonal climate prediction. While the graphical map forecasts of the NMME are informative, there is a need to provide decision-makers with probabilistic forecasts specific to their region of interest. Here, we demonstrate the potential application of the NMME to address regional climate projection needs by developing new forecasts of temperature and precipitation for the North American Great Lakes, the largest system of lakes on Earth. Regional opertional water budget forecasts rely on these outlooks to initiate monthly forecasts not only of the water budget, but of monthly lake water levels as well. More specifically, we present an alternative for improving existing operational protocols that currently involve a relatively time-consuming and subjective procedure based on interpreting the maps of the NMME. In addition, all forecasts are currently presented in the NMME in a probabilistic format, with equal weighting given to each member of the ensemble. In our new evolution of this product, we provide historical context for the forecasts by superimposing them (in an on-line graphical user interface) with the historical range of observations. Implementation of this new tool has already led to noticeable advantages in regional water budget forecasting, and has the potential to be transferred to other regional decision-making authorities as well.

  16. Book Review: Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koster, Randal

    1998-01-01

    The book being reviewed, Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change, addresses the effects of global climate change, particularly global warming induced by greenhouse gas emissions, on hydrological budgets at the regional scale. As noted in its preface, the book consists of peer-reviewed papers delivered at scientific meetings held by the International Geographical Union Working Group on Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change and Global Warming, supplemented with some additional chapters that round out coverage of the topic. The editors hope that this book will serve as "not only a record of current achievements, but also a stimulus to further hydrological research as the detail and spatial resolution of Global Climate Models improves". The reviewer found the background material on regional climatology to be valuable and the methodologies presented to be of interest. The value of the book is significantly diminished, however by the dated nature of some of the material and by large uncertainties in the predictions of regional precipitation change. The book would have been improved by a much more extensive documentation of the uncertainty associated with each step of the prediction process.

  17. Influence of the African Great Lakes on the regional climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiery, Wim; Davin, Edouard; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen; Demuzere, Matthias; Lhermitte, Stef; van Lipzig, Nicole

    2015-04-01

    Although the African Great Lakes are important regulators for the East-African climate, their influence on atmospheric dynamics and the regional hydrological cycle remains poorly understood. We aim to assess this impact by conducting a regional climate model simulation which resolves individual lakes and explicitly computes lake temperatures. The regional climate model COSMO-CLM, coupled to a state-of-the-art lake parameterization scheme and land surface model, is used to dynamically downscale the COSMO-CLM CORDEX-Africa evaluation simulation to 7 km grid spacing for the period 1999-2008. Evaluation of the model reveals good performance compared to both in-situ and satellite observations, especially for spatio-temporal variability of lake surface temperatures and precipitation. Model integrations indicate that the four major African Great Lakes almost double precipitation amounts over their surface relative to a simulation without lakes, but hardly exert any influence on precipitation beyond their shores. The largest lakes also cool their near-surface air, this time with pronounced downwind influence. The lake-induced cooling happens during daytime, when the lakes absorb incoming solar radiation and inhibit upward turbulent heat transport. At night, when this heat is released, the lakes warm the near-surface air. Furthermore, Lake Victoria has profound influence on atmospheric dynamics and stability as it induces cellular motion with over-lake convective inhibition during daytime, and the reversed pattern at night. Overall, this study shows the added value of resolving individual lakes and realistically representing lake surface temperatures for climate studies in this region. Thiery, W., Davin, E., Panitz, H.-J., Demuzere, M., Lhermitte, S., van Lipzig, N.P.M., The impact of the African Great Lakes on the regional climate, J. Climate (in review).

  18. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Overview of Climate Change Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mearns, L. O.; Narccap Team

    2010-12-01

    NARCCAP is an international program that is serving the climate scenario needs of the United States, Canada, and northern Mexico. We are systematically investigating the uncertainties in regional scale projections of future climate and producing high resolution climate change scenarios using multiple regional climate models(RCMs)and multiple global model responses to a future emission scenario, by nesting the RCMs within atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) forced with the A2 SRES scenario, over a domain covering the conterminous US, northern Mexico, and most of Canada. The project also includes a validation component through nesting the participating RCMs within NCEP reanalyses. The basic spatial resolution of the RCM simulations is 50 km. This program includes RCMs that participated in the European PRUDENCE program (HadRM3 and RegCM), the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) as well as the NCEP regional spectral model (RSM), the NCAR/PSU MM5, and NCAR WRF. Candidate AOGCMs include the Hadley Centre HadCM3, NCAR CCSM, the Canadian CGCM3 and the GFDL model. The resulting climate model runs form the basis for multiple high resolution climate scenarios that can be used in climate change impacts assessments over North America. High resolution (50 km) global time-slice experiments based on the GFDL atmospheric model and the NCAR atmospheric model (CAM3) have also been produced and will be compared with the simulations of the regional models. Additional key science issues are being investigated such as the importance of compatible physics in the nested and nesting models. Measures of uncertainty across the multiple runs are being developed by geophysical statisticians. . In this overview talk, results from Phase II of the project, the RCM simulations using boundary conditions from the current and future runs of the 4 AOGCMs, will be presented.

  19. Feedback of forest distribution on the simulated climate of the metropolitan region of Hamburg

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petersen, Juliane; Gálos, Borbála; Rechid, Diana

    2013-04-01

    Regional climate change projections show a changing climate in the metropolitan region of Hamburg for the end of the century: The temperature could increase and the precipitation in summer could decrease. To cope with the probably longer lasting and hotter summer conditions in Europe there are different possible adaptation measures in land management practice, e.g. forest conversion. That means the conversion of mostly coniferous forest monocultures to deciduous and mixed forests. Mixed forests are generally more adaptable in comparison to conifer forests. They ensure an increased groundwater recharge because of less canopy interception and reduced transpiration outside the growing season. An interesting question is how forest conversion would feedback to the regional climate under different climate conditions. To explore climate feedbacks, REMO (regional climate model at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg) is applied. To get a more realistic representation of the land surface, a current dataset from a digital basis landscape model of the Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy is used instead of the standard representation of the land surface in REMO. In some areas of the metropolitan region of Hamburg the updated land surface increases the forest fraction. Additionally, all coniferous forest types are converted into broadleaf forest types to study the maximum impact on the simulated near surface climate. This set-up is used for a climate simulation with REMO, forced by ERA-INTERIM reanalysis data for the period of 1990-2008. Selected climate variables are analyzed and the associated processes are investigated: The different forest distributions affect particularly the evapotranspiration and thus the water- and energy cycle of the soil and the lower atmosphere. Especially, the effects in the very hot and dry year 2003 and in the wet year 2002 are analyzed. To study the impacts of the forest distributions under different climate conditions, a

  20. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP): Overview of Climate Change Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bukovsky, M. S.; Mearns, L. O.

    2012-04-01

    NARCCAP is an international program that is serving the climate scenario needs of the United States, Canada, and northern Mexico. We are systematically investigating the uncertainties in regional scale projections of future climate and producing high resolution climate change scenarios using six different regional climate models (RCMs ) and multiple global model responses to a future emission scenario, by nesting the RCMs within four atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) forced with the A2 SRES scenario, over a domain covering the conterminous US, northern Mexico, and most of Canada. The project also includes a validation component through nesting the participating RCMs within NCEP reanalyses. The spatial resolution of the RCM simulations is 50 km. This program includes RCMs that participated in the European PRUDENCE program (HadRM3 and RegCM), the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) as well as the NCEP regional spectral model (RSM), the NCAR/PSU MM5, and NCAR WRF. AOGCMs include the Hadley Centre HadCM3, NCAR CCSM, the Canadian CGCM3 and the GFDL model. Insufficient funding was available to simulate all 24 combinations of RCMs and AOGCMs. Thus, we used a balanced fractional factorial statistical design to reduce the number of combinations of RCM-AOGCM pairs to twelve. High resolution (50 km) global time-slice experiments based on the GFDL atmospheric model and the NCAR atmospheric model (CAM3) have also been produced and will be compared with the simulations of the regional models. The geographic domain was regionalized into 29 subregions based on common climatological features, and summary climate change statistics for each of the subregions have been produced. In this overview talk, results from the RCM climate change simulations for select subregions of North America will be presented.

  1. Potential Impacts of Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winkler, J. A.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is projected to have substantial impacts in the Great Lakes region of the United States. One intent of this presentation is to introduce the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments Center (GLISA), a recently-funded NOAA RISA center. The goals and unique organizational structure of GLISA will be described along with core activities that support impact and assessment studies in the region. Additionally, observed trends in temperature, precipitation including lake effect snowfall, and lake temperatures and ice cover will be summarized for the Great Lakes region, and vulnerabilities to, and potential impacts of, climate change will be surveyed for critical natural and human systems. These include forest ecosystems, water resources, traditional and specialized agriculture, and tourism/recreation. Impacts and vulnerabilities unique to the Great Lakes region are emphasized.

  2. Forecasting energy security impacts of biofuels using regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, X.; Campbell, E.; Snyder, M. A.; Sloan, L.; Kueppers, L. M.

    2010-12-01

    Production of biofuels in the U.S. is growing rapidly, with corn providing the dominant feedstock for current production and corn stover potentially providing a critical feedstock source for future cellulosic ethanol production. While production of domestic biofuels is thought to improve energy security, future changes in climate may impact crop yield variability and erode the energy security benefits of biofuels. Here we examine future yield variability for corn and soy using RegCM regional climate data from NARCAPP, historical agronomic data, and statistical models of yield variability. Our simulations of historical yield anomalies using monthly temperature and precipitation data from RegCM show robust relationships to observed yield anomalies. Simulations of future yield anomalies show increased yield variability relative to historical yield variability in the region of high corn production. Since variability in energy supply is a critical concern for energy security we suggest that the climate-induced yield variability on critical biofuels feedstocks be explored more widely.

  3. Alternative ways to evaluate the NARCCAP regional climate forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shin, D.; Cocke, S.; O'Brien, J. J.

    2011-12-01

    Values added by the NARCCAP regional climate models, compared to corresponding global climate models, are explicitly unveiled by using non-traditional skill evaluation statistics. The conventional model evaluation methods, such as temporal correlation of seasonal average rainfall, cannot explain the values of dynamically downscaled data. The hidden values of the NARCCAP regional models can be better exposed by high frequency statistics, e.g., the time series of accumulated rainfall and Lawn-and-Garden Moisture Index. Application (e.g., crop, hydrological) models can also be used to uncover the value because the outcomes of application models include the high-frequency variability of seasonal climate (e.g., dry/wet spell sequences).

  4. Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.; Wirth, C.; ,

    2006-01-01

    The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

  5. Land use driven vegetation processes and regional climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Y.; Jia, G. J.

    2008-12-01

    Recent reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) confirm that climate change is occurring at a larger and more rapid rate of change than was thought likely only six years ago. Temperatures are increasing, and higher associated rates of evaporation will likely bring drier conditions in large portion of monsoon Asia areas where ecosystems and social-economy are under pressure of water deficit. Human activities have emerged as an important driving force that induces global and regional climatic change. In the past decades, human being have been enhancing their contributions to the trend of global warming at global scale and intensifying their impacts on regional climate by transforming land surface. It is therefore an essential issue to examine land use change to interpret the magnitudes of human impact on regional climate. Here, relationship between climate change and terrestrial ecological processes driven by land use options such as urbanization is discussed with case studies in monsoon Asia region. This study investigated the decadal changes of major land-use types over greater Guangzhou area by analyzing 1980s-2000s land- use raster dataset derived from landsat images, meteorological records, and census data. The results from change detection analysis show a general trend of decrease of cropland and increase of build-up in the past two decades. We then examined the temporal-spatial relationship between thermal climate index and fractional land-use types. Based on water-energy balance equation, calculated how temperature increased as a direct or indirect consequence of land-use change. Our results show that there were positive correlations between temperature and fractional cover of build-up and negative correlation between temperature and fractional cover of cropland. The temperature increased by 0.90°C in the period, and among which 0.37°C may have been contributed by land-use changes in the region. Meanwhile, strong urban heat islands

  6. Climate Change and a Global City: An Assessment of the Metropolitan East Coast Region

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Solecki, William

    1999-01-01

    The objective of the research is to derive an assessment of the potential climate change impacts on a global city - in this case the 31 county region that comprises the New York City metropolitan area. This study comprises one of the regional components that contribute to the ongoing U.S. National Assessment: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change and is an application of state-of-the-art climate change science to a set of linked sectoral assessment analyses for the Metro East Coast (MEC) region. We illustrate how three interacting elements of global cities react and respond to climate variability and change with a broad conceptual model. These elements include: people (e.g., socio- demographic conditions), place (e.g., physical systems), and pulse (e.g., decision-making and economic activities). The model assumes that a comprehensive assessment of potential climate change can be derived from examining the impacts within each of these elements and at their intersections. Thus, the assessment attempts to determine the within-element and the inter-element effects. Five interacting sector studies representing the three intersecting elements are evaluated. They include the Coastal Zone, Infrastructure, Water Supply, Public Health, and Institutional Decision-making. Each study assesses potential climate change impacts on the sector and on the intersecting elements, through the analysis of the following parts: 1. Current conditions of sector in the region; 2. Lessons and evidence derived from past climate variability; 3. Scenario predictions affecting sector; potential impacts of scenario predictions; 4. Knowledge/information gaps and critical issues including identification of additional research questions, effectiveness of modeling efforts, equity of impacts, potential non-local interactions, and policy recommendations; and 5. Identification of coping strategies - i.e., resilience building, mitigation strategies, new technologies, education that

  7. Partnerships in the Polar Regions: Climate to Classrooms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warburton, J.; Bartholow, S.

    2013-12-01

    PolarTREC (Teachers and Researchers Exploring and Collaborating) is a program in which K-12 teachers spend 2-6 weeks participating in hands-on field research experiences in the polar regions which focus heavily on climate change and climate science. The goal of PolarTREC is to invigorate polar science education and understanding by bringing K-12 educators and polar researchers together. Through teachers, climate understanding can be shaped for the future by having scientifically literate students entering the workforce. Alone, PolarTREC reaches a myriad of classrooms throughout the country. With new partnerships of the National Park Service and Alaska Geographic, we developed additional field experiences in climate change education for teachers. Campaigns for climate literacy do impact students but are only effective with well-trained, experienced teachers. Our programmatic goal is to expand the opportunities for PolarTREC teachers to share their involvement in science with additional formal and informal educators. 'Teaching the teachers' will reach additional audiences in media, policy, and classrooms. Modeling this program, we designed and conducted teacher trainings on climate science in Denali National Park. Utilizing expert university faculty and park managers in climate science and PolarTREC alumni teachers, the program was touted as 'the best professional opportunity to date". This program gave new teachers the tools to adequately communicate climate science for a generation of scientifically literate students. This presentation will outline the practices used in creating and implementing a climate literacy program for teachers through partnerships that will effectively influence student learning.

  8. Regional Climate Change and Development of Public Health Decision Aids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hegedus, A. M.; Darmenova, K.; Grant, F.; Kiley, H.; Higgins, G. J.; Apling, D.

    2011-12-01

    According to the World Heath Organization (WHO) climate change is a significant and emerging threat to public health, and changes the way we must look at protecting vulnerable populations. Worldwide, the occurrence of some diseases and other threats to human health depend predominantly on local climate patterns. Rising average temperatures, in combination with changing rainfall patterns and humidity levels, alter the lifecycle and regional distribution of certain disease-carrying vectors, such as mosquitoes, ticks and rodents. In addition, higher surface temperatures will bring heat waves and heat stress to urban regions worldwide and will likely increase heat-related health risks. A growing body of scientific evidence also suggests an increase in extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and hurricanes that can be destructive to human health and well-being. Therefore, climate adaptation and health decision aids are urgently needed by city planners and health officials to determine high risk areas, evaluate vulnerable populations and develop public health infrastructure and surveillance systems. To address current deficiencies in local planning and decision making with respect to regional climate change and its effect on human health, our research is focused on performing a dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to develop decision aids that translate the regional climate data into actionable information for users. WRF model is initialized with the Max Planck Institute European Center/Hamburg Model version 5 (ECHAM5) General Circulation Model simulations forced with the Special Report on Emissions (SRES) A1B emissions scenario. Our methodology involves development of climatological indices of extreme weather, quantifying the risk of occurrence of water/rodent/vector-borne diseases as well as developing various heat stress related decision aids. Our results indicate that the downscale simulations provide the necessary

  9. Downscaled Regional Climate Information for the Southeastern US

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Office of Research and Development in Research Triangle Park, NC, has been developing regional climate and air quality fields for North America for current and future periods. Research emphasis has been placed on evaluating near-s...

  10. Developing a likely climate scenario from multiple regional climate model simulations with an optimal weighting factor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

    2014-07-01

    This study presents a performance-based comprehensive weighting factor that accounts for the skill of different regional climate models (RCMs), including the effect of the driving lateral boundary condition coming from either atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs) or reanalyses. A differential evolution algorithm is employed to identify the optimal relative importance of five performance metrics, and corresponding weighting factors, that include the relative absolute mean error (RAME), annual cycle, spatial pattern, extremes and multi-decadal trend. Based on cumulative density functions built by weighting factors of various RCMs/AOGCMs ensemble simulations, current and future climate projections were then generated to identify the level of uncertainty in the climate scenarios. This study selected the areas of southern Ontario and Québec in Canada as a case study. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Three performance metrics were found essential, having the greater relative importance: the RAME, annual variability and multi-decadal trend. (2) The choice of driving conditions from the AOGCM had impacts on the comprehensive weighting factor, particularly for the winter season. (3) Combining climate projections based on the weighting factors significantly increased the consistency and reduced the spread among models in the future climate changes. These results imply that the weighting factors play a more important role in reducing the effects of outliers on plausible future climate conditions in regions where there is a higher level of variability in RCM/AOGCM simulations. As a result of weighting, substantial increases in the projected warming were found in the southern part of the study area during summer, and the whole region during winter, compared to the simple equal weighting scheme from RCM runs. This study is an initial step toward developing a likelihood procedure for climate scenarios on a regional scale using equal or different probabilities

  11. Impacts of climate change on land-use and wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rashford, Benjamin S.; Adams, Richard M.; Wu, JunJie; Voldseth, Richard A.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Werner, Brett; Johnson, W. Carter

    2016-01-01

    Wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is closely linked to climate. A warmer and drier climate, as predicted, will negatively affect the productivity of PPR wetlands and the services they provide. The effect of climate change on wetland productivity, however, will not only depend on natural processes (e.g., evapotranspiration), but also on human responses. Agricultural land use, the predominant use in the PPR, is unlikely to remain static as climate change affects crop yields and prices. Land use in uplands surrounding wetlands will further affect wetland water budgets and hence wetland productivity. The net impact of climate change on wetland productivity will therefore depend on both the direct effects of climate change on wetlands and the indirect effects on upland land use. We examine the effect of climate change and land-use response on semipermanent wetland productivity by combining an economic model of agricultural land-use change with an ecological model of wetland dynamics. Our results suggest that the climate change scenarios evaluated are likely to have profound effects on land use in the North and South Dakota PPR, with wheat displacing other crops and pasture. The combined pressure of land-use and climate change significantly reduces wetland productivity. In a climate scenario with a +4 °C increase in temperature, our model predicts that almost the entire region may lack the wetland productivity necessary to support wetland-dependent species.

  12. Statistical downscaling and dynamical downscaling of regional climate in China: Present climate evaluations and future climate projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Jianping; Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu; Gao, Hongxia; Wang, Xueyuan; Wu, Jian

    2016-03-01

    Statistical downscaling and dynamical downscaling are two approaches to generate high-resolution regional climate models based on the large-scale information from either reanalysis data or global climate models. In this study, these two downscaling methods are used to simulate the surface climate of China and compared. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is cross validated and used to downscale the regional climate of China. Then, the downscaled historical climate of 1981-2000 and future climate of 2041-2060 are compared with that from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by the European Center-Hamburg atmosphere model and the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) and the L'Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 5, coupled with the Nucleus for European Modelling of the ocean, low resolution (IPSL-CM5A-LR). The SDSM can reproduce the surface temperature characteristics of the present climate in China, whereas the WRF tends to underestimate the surface temperature over most of China. Both the SDSM and WRF require further work to improve their ability to downscale precipitation. Both statistical and dynamical downscaling methods produce future surface temperatures for 2041-2060 that are markedly different from the historical climatology. However, the changes in projected precipitation differ between the two downscaling methods. Indeed, large uncertainties remain in terms of the direction and magnitude of future precipitation changes over China.

  13. A framework for estimation of uncertainty in regional climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokolov, Andrei; Monier, Erwan; Gao, Xiang; Schlosser, Adam; Scott, Jeff

    2015-04-01

    In this study we focus on four sources of uncertainties in climate projections: anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission scenarios, climate system response to external forcing, natural variability and inter-model differences in the patterns of regional climate change. The contributions of the first three sources are evaluated using the MIT IGSM-CAM framework, which links the MIT Integrated Global System Model to the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model. The MIT IGSM couples a model of world economy (Emission Prediction and Policy Analysis model, EPPA) with the MIT Earth System Model of intermediate complexity (MESM). The version of the MESM used in this study consists of a two-dimensional (zonaly averaged) atmospheric model with interactive chemistry, an ocean global circulation model and a land system model that simulates both physical and biogeochemical processes. The uncertainties associated with the inter-model differences in the patterns of regional climate change are evaluated using a pattern scaling approach. Namely, regional changes in surface air temperature and precipitation are obtained by scaling changes in the zonal mean simulated by the IGSM using regional patterns from simulations with different AR4 AOGCMs. We present results for two different regions, namely the contiguous United States and Northern Eurasia. Our results show that on short time scales uncertainty in surface warming are primarily caused by uncertainty in climate system response and natural variability. In contrast uncertainties in the changes in surface temperature on a century scale are mainly associated with different emissions scenarios. Different sources play more equal roles in the uncertainties in projected precipitations. In particular, natural variability and inter-model differences have a much large effect on changes in precipitation than on simulated surface warming.

  14. Spatial connectivity of urban clusters and regional climate effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jia, G.; Hu, Y.; Xu, R.

    2015-12-01

    Rapid urbanization in East Asia in past three decades is considered as a remarkable process that featured with expansion of urban clusters and tightened linkages within and among clusters. Such process could lead to much larger scale climate effects, and could even contribute to sub-regional and regional climate change. In large area of urban clusters with significant expansion of built-up in relatively short period, local urban heat islands could contribute to sub-regional climate forcing. Here we use visible/near infrared and thermal infrared satellite data to estimate multiple scale structure of urban clusters, and to assess effects of urban heat islands at local and regional scales in East Asia. Our estimates of urban extent were greater than previously reported in most global datasets. Strong spatial connection and internal expansion were found in major urban clusters in past 30 years, and was accelerated in past 10 years. Many city clusters were merging into each other, with gradual blurring boundaries and disappearing of gaps among member cities. Cities and towns were more connected with roads and commercial corridors, while wildland and urban greens became more isolated as patches among built-up areas. We would argue that in many cases in this region, urban clusters are no longer "islands", they are now "seas" in term of climate related urban canopy. Urban greens such as parks and plantation were long recognized for their cooling effects that buffer the urban heat island effect, however, such cooling effects tend to be weakened as their patches became smaller and isolated, and over dominated by urban surfaces. There were significant positive relations between urban fraction and urban heat island effects as demonstrated by VNIR and TIR data from multiple satellites. Those new estimates are expected to effectively improve climate simulation for better understanding the impacts of inter-connected urban clusters on air temperature, precipitation, wind speed

  15. Regional Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Use in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmed, K. F.; Wang, G.; You, L.

    2014-12-01

    Agriculture is a key element of the human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) that is influenced by climate and can potentially influence regional climate. Temperature and precipitation directly impact the crop yield (by controlling photosynthesis, respiration and other physiological processes) that then affects agricultural land use pattern. In feedback, the resulting changes in land use and land cover play an important role to determine the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. The assessment of future agricultural land use is, therefore, of great importance in climate change study. In this study, we develop a prototype land use projection model and, using this model, project the changes to land use pattern and future land cover map accounting for climate-induced yield changes for major crops in West Africa. Among the inputs to the land use projection model are crop yield changes simulated by the crop model DSSAT, driven with the climate forcing data from the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5, which features a projected decrease of future mean crop yield and increase of inter-annual variability. Another input to the land use projection model is the projected changes of food demand in the future. In a so-called "dumb-farmer scenario" without any adaptation, the combined effect of decrease in crop yield and increase in food demand will lead to a significant increase in agricultural land use in future years accompanied by a decrease in forest and grass area. Human adaptation through land use optimization in an effort to minimize agricultural expansion is found to have little impact on the overall areas of agricultural land use. While the choice of the General Circulation Model (GCM) to derive initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model can be a source of uncertainty in projecting the future LULCC, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes

  16. Evaluation of a High-Resolution Regional Climate Ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruyere, C. L.; Tye, M. R.; Keellings, D.; Jaye, A.

    2014-12-01

    A high-resolution Regional Climate Ensemble is used to investigate the limits of predictability of climate simulations, with a focus on high-impact weather. A diverse set of approaches are being applied to examine the impact of the different physics parameterizations on the simulated climate and high-impact weather statistics and to determine the physics combinations that result in realistic scenarios. In this paper we focus on the ensemble members' ability to correctly simulate current climate variability in terms of: 1) extreme temperature and precipitation over different regions, and 2) tropical cyclone statistics. A twenty-four member physics ensemble of climate simulations has been generated using the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting Model (Skamarock et al. 2008). The ensemble model has been run over an extended North American domain of approximately 25° S to 70° N and from the African coast to the East Pacific, and at sufficient resolution to capture high-impact weather events. Skamarock, W., J. B. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. O. Gill, D. Barker, M. G. Duda, X. Huang, and W. Wang, 2008: A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-475+STR. Boulder, CO.

  17. Climate change and the future of natural disturbances in the central hardwood region

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, Virginia H; Hughes, M. Joseph; Hayes, Daniel J

    2015-01-01

    The spatial patterns and ecological processes of the southeastern upland hardwood forests have evolved to reflect past climatic conditions and natural disturbance regimes. Changes in climate can lead to disturbances that exceed their natural range of variation, and the impacts of these changes will depend on the vulnerability or resiliency of these ecosystems. Global Circulation Models generally project annual increases in temperature across the southeastern United States over the coming decades, but changes in precipitation are less consistent. Even more unclear is how climate change might affect future trends in the severity and frequency of natural disturbances, such as severe storms, fires, droughts, floods, and insect outbreaks. Here, we use a time-series satellite data record to map the spatial pattern and severity of broad classes of natural disturbances the southeast region. The data derived from this map allow analysis of regional-scale trends in natural and anthropogenic disturbances in the region over the last three decades. Throughout the region, between 5% and 25% of forest land is affected by some sort of disturbance each year since 1985. The time series reveals periodic droughts that themselves are widespread and of low severity but are associated with more localized, high-severity disturbances such as fire and insect outbreaks. The map also reveals extensive anthropogenic disturbance across the region in the form of forest conversion related to resource extraction and urban and residential development. We discuss how changes in climate and disturbance regimes might affect southeastern forests in the future via altering the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of these ecosystems. Changes in climate are highly likely to expose southeastern forests to more frequent and severe disturbances, but ultimately how vulnerable or resilient southeastern forests are to these changes will depend on their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to these novel

  18. The United States National Climate Assessment - Alaska Technical Regional Report

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Markon, Carl J.; Trainor, Sarah F.; Chapin, F. Stuart; Markon, Carl J.; Trainor, Sarah F.; Chapin, F. Stuart

    2012-01-01

    The Alaskan landscape is changing, both in terms of effects of human activities as a consequence of increased population, social and economic development and their effects on the local and broad landscape; and those effects that accompany naturally occurring hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and tsunamis. Some of the most prevalent changes, however, are those resulting from a changing climate, with both near term and potential upcoming effects expected to continue into the future. Alaska's average annual statewide temperatures have increased by nearly 4°F from 1949 to 2005, with significant spatial variability due to the large latitudinal and longitudinal expanse of the State. Increases in mean annual temperature have been greatest in the interior region, and smallest in the State's southwest coastal regions. In general, however, trends point toward increases in both minimum temperatures, and in fewer extreme cold days. Trends in precipitation are somewhat similar to those in temperature, but with more variability. On the whole, Alaska saw a 10-percent increase in precipitation from 1949 to 2005, with the greatest increases recorded in winter. The National Climate Assessment has designated two well-established scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Nakicenovic and others, 2001) as a minimum set that technical and author teams considered as context in preparing portions of this assessment. These two scenarios are referred to as the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios, which assume either a continuation of recent trends in fossil fuel use (A2) or a vigorous global effort to reduce fossil fuel use (B1). Temperature increases from 4 to 22°F are predicted (to 2070-2099) depending on which emissions scenario (A2 or B1) is used with the least warming in southeast Alaska and the greatest in the northwest. Concomitant with temperature changes, by the end of the 21st century the growing season is expected

  19. Use of multi-model ensembles for regional climate downscaling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reichler, Thomas; Andrade, Marcos; Ohara, Noriaki

    2014-05-01

    Dynamic regional downscaling requires use of a regional model driven at its boundaries by the output from coarse-scale global climate models. But individual members from global multi-model ensembles often lead to contradicting answers, and the important question arises of which of the many global models to select for the downscaling work. The perhaps most obvious solution to downscale various models is usually too expensive. Numerous studies have shown that the performance of the multi-model mean of an ensemble is usually superior to that of any individual model. However, it is unclear how to employ the multi-model mean framework for regional downscaling. We propose a simple method that allows use of a multi-model mean for downscaling work. We demonstrate the performance of our method using the WRF regional model system coupled to CMIP5 output. The system is used to perform high-resolution climate change simulations over our prototypical study region of tropical South America. We use objective criteria to select three CMIP5 models that perform best in terms of simulating present day climate. The outcomes from using these three individual global models are contrasted against that from using the CMIP5 multi-model mean. We discuss the advantages and limitations of the new method, and conclude that it represents a promising and computationally inexpensive alternative to the traditional downscaling of individual models.

  20. Can regional climate engineering save the summer Arctic sea ice?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tilmes, S.; Jahn, Alexandra; Kay, Jennifer E.; Holland, Marika; Lamarque, Jean-Francois

    2014-02-01

    Rapid declines in summer Arctic sea ice extent are projected under high-forcing future climate scenarios. Regional Arctic climate engineering has been suggested as an emergency strategy to save the sea ice. Model simulations of idealized regional dimming experiments compared to a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emission simulation demonstrate the importance of both local and remote feedback mechanisms to the surface energy budget in high latitudes. With increasing artificial reduction in incoming shortwave radiation, the positive surface albedo feedback from Arctic sea ice loss is reduced. However, changes in Arctic clouds and the strongly increasing northward heat transport both counteract the direct dimming effects. A 4 times stronger local reduction in solar radiation compared to a global experiment is required to preserve summer Arctic sea ice area. Even with regional Arctic dimming, a reduction in the strength of the oceanic meridional overturning circulation and a shut down of Labrador Sea deep convection are possible.

  1. Continental-Scale Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prein, A. F.; Rasmussen, R.; Clark, M. P.; Ikeda, K.; Liu, C.

    2015-12-01

    Convection-permitting regional climate models (CPCMs) have proven to be useful for down scaling large-scale climate information to regional and local scales. They add value to the representation of impact relevant parameters such as near surface temperature, precipitation, and the representation of extremes by improving local scale processes such as soil atmosphere interactions, snowpack dynamics, or the representation of deep convection. Due to their high computational costs most CPCM simulations have been restricted to small domains on the order of a few 100 km. On such small domains CPCMs might not reach their full potential because they are restricted by the lateral boundary forcing and may not be able to spin up properly. In this study we investigate the ability of a continental scale CPCM to simulate climate conditions in the Contiguous United States within the period October 2000 to December 2010. We downscale ERA-Interim reanalysis data to a horizontal grid spacing of 4 km with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model that allows an explicit treatment of deep convection. The model performance is analyzed in different synoptic-scale weather regimes, which enables a process-oriented evaluation. The significance of model biases in simulated precipitation and temperature is investigated by including observational uncertainties in the analysis. Significant biases are further investigated and possible error sources are discussed. The goal of this study is to provide a benchmark on the state-of-the-art convection-permitting regional climate modeling and to give guidance for future model development.

  2. Modeling Arctic Climate with a Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cassano, J. J.; Duvivier, A.; Hughes, M.; Roberts, A.; Brunke, M.; Fisel, B. J.; Gutowski, W. J.; Maslowski, W.; Nijssen, B.; Osinski, R.; Zeng, X.

    2013-12-01

    A new regional Earth system model of the Arctic, the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), has recently been developed. The initial version of this model includes atmosphere (WRF), ocean (POP), sea ice (CICE), and land (VIC) component models coupled with the NCAR CESM CPL7 coupler. The model is configured to run on a large pan-Arctic domain that includes all sea ice covered waters in the Northern Hemisphere and all Arctic Ocean draining land areas. Results from multi-decadal (1989 to present) simulations with RASM will be presented and will focus on the model's representation of atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface climate, emphasizing both strengths and weaknesses of the current model climate and comparisons with atmosphere-only WRF simulations. Results from the model show both areas of improvement and degraded results relative to stand-alone WRF. Improvement in the coupled model climate are related to more physically realistic representation of coupled processes such as energy transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere through leads in the sea ice during winter. Degraded results come from feedbacks in model component biases, such as atmospheric circulation biases resulting in incorrect local sea ice cover that then result in large local atmospheric temperature biases. The issue of spectral nudging in a coupled regional climate model system as well as other lessons learned during the development of RASM will be discussed. The presentation will conclude with future plans for RASM.

  3. Impact of Black Carbon Aerosols on Regional Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menon, S.; Hansen, J.; Nazarenko, L.; Luo, Y.

    2002-12-01

    We have evaluated the effect of anthropogenic aerosols on the regional climates of China and India: regions where aerosol emissions have been increasing at an alarming rate. We use the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model to perform simulations that investigate recent trends in summer precipitation observed over China - North drought, South flooding - considered to be the largest observed in several decades. We perform several simulations to differentiate between the climate effects of sulfate and black carbon aerosols and use realistic aerosol distributions obtained from measurements over China, India and the Indian Ocean. The trends in precipitation as well as the summer time surface cooling over China and India have been captured by using aerosols that have a low single scatter albedo (0.85), i.e., by assuming that the aerosols are mostly absorbing. Since black carbon aerosols are absorbing aerosols and cause surface cooling with heating at the top of the atmosphere and in the lower troposphere, the change in the vertical temperature profile causes changes in the large-scale vertical velocity fields, latent heating, convective activity and cloud cover. This change in the large-scale circulation may explain some of the changes in the precipitation and temperature trends observed over China and India in recent decades. Our results suggest that black carbon aerosols can have a significant influence on regional climate through changes in the hydrological cycle and large-scale circulation.

  4. Regional climate change-Science in the Southeast

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Sonya A.

    2010-01-01

    Resource managers are at the forefront of a new era of management. They must consider the potential impacts of climate change on the Nation's resources and proactively develop strategies for dealing with those impacts on plants, animals, and ecosystems. This requires rigorous, scientific understanding of environmental change. The role of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in this effort is to analyze climate-change data and develop tools for assessing how changing conditions are likely to impact resources. This information will assist Federal, State, local, and tribal partners manage resources strategically. The 2008 Omnibus Budget Act and Secretarial Order 3289 established a new network of eight Department of Interior Regional Climate Science Centers to provide technical support for resource managers. The Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) is the first regional assessment to be funded by the USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (http://nccw.usgs.gov/). The USGS is working closely with the developing Department of Interior Landscape Conservation Cooperatives to ensure that the project will meet the needs of resource managers in the Southeast. In addition, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is providing resources to the SERAP to expand the scope of the project.

  5. Future meteorological drought: projections of regional climate models for Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stagge, James; Tallaksen, Lena; Rizzi, Jonathan

    2015-04-01

    In response to the major European drought events of the last decade, projecting future drought frequency and severity in a non-stationary climate is a major concern for Europe. Prior drought studies have identified regional hotspots in the Mediterranean and Eastern European regions, but have otherwise produced conflicting results with regard to future drought severity. Some of this disagreement is likely related to the relatively coarse resolution of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and regional averaging, which tends to smooth extremes. This study makes use of the most current Regional Climate Models (RCMs) forced with CMIP5 climate projections to quantify the projected change in meteorological drought for Europe during the next century at a fine, gridded scale. Meteorological drought is quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which normalize accumulated precipitation and climatic water balance anomaly, respectively, for a specific location and time of year. By comparing projections for these two indices, the importance of precipitation deficits can be contrasted with the importance of evapotranspiration increases related to temperature changes. Climate projections are based on output from CORDEX (the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment), which provides high resolution regional downscaled climate scenarios that have been extensively tested for numerous regions around the globe, including Europe. SPI and SPEI are then calculated on a gridded scale at a spatial resolution of either 0.44 degrees (~50 km) or 0.11 degrees (~12.5km) for the three projected emission pathways (rcp26, rcp45, rcp85). Analysis is divided into two major sections: first validating the models with respect to observed historical trends in meteorological drought from 1970-2005 and then comparing drought severity and frequency during three future time periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) to the

  6. Solar Forcing of Regional Climate Change During the Maunder Minimum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shindell, Drew T.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Mann, Michael E.; Rind, David; Waple, Anne; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    We examine the climate response to solar irradiance changes between the late 17th century Maunder Minimum and the late 18th century. Global average temperature changes are small (about 0.3 to 0.4 C) in both a climate model and empirical reconstructions. However, regional temperature changes are quite large. In the model, these occur primarily through a forced shift toward the low index state of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation. This leads to colder temperatures over the Northern Hemisphere continents, especially in winter (1 to 2 C), in agreement with historical records and proxy data for surface temperatures.

  7. Tropical deforestation: Modeling local- to regional-scale climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Henderson-Sellers, A.; Durbidge, T.B.; Pitman, A.J. ); Dickinson, R.E. ); Kennedy, P.J. ); McGuffie, K. )

    1993-04-20

    The authors report results from a model study using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (Version 1) general circulation model to assess the impact of regional scale deforestation on climate change. In the model a large parcel in the Amazon basin is changed from tropical rain forest to scrub grassland. Impacts can include adding CO[sub 2] to the atmosphere by biomass burning, increasing surface albedo, changing precipitation and evaporation rates, impacting soil moisture, and general weather patterns. They compare their model results with earlier work which has looked at this same problem.

  8. Extreme events evaluation over African cities with regional climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bucchignani, Edoardo; Mercogliano, Paola; Simonis, Ingo; Engelbrecht, Francois

    2013-04-01

    The warming of the climate system in recent decades is evident from observations and is mainly related to the increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC, 2012). Given the expected climate change conditions on the African continent, as underlined in different publications, and their associated socio-economic impacts, an evaluation of the specific effects on some strategic African cities on the medium and long-term is of crucial importance with regard to the development of adaptation strategies. Assessments usually focus on averages climate properties rather than on variability or extremes, but often these last ones have more impacts on the society than averages values. Global Coupled Models (GCM) are generally used to simulate future climate scenarios as they guarantee physical consistency between variables; however, due to the coarse spatial resolution, their output cannot be used for impact studies on local scales, which makes necessary the generation of higher resolution climate change data. Regional Climate Models (RCM) describe better the phenomena forced by orography or by coastal lines, or that are related to convection. Therefore they can provide more detailed information on climate extremes that are hard to study and even harder to predict because they are, by definition, rare and obey different statistical laws. The normal bias of the RCM to represent the local climatology is reduced using adequate statistical techniques based on the comparison of the simulated results with long observational time series. In the framework of the EU-FP7 CLUVA (Climate Change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa) project, regional projections of climate change at high resolution (about 8 km), have been performed for selected areas surrounding five African cities. At CMCC, the regional climate model COSMO-CLM has been employed: it is a non-hydrostatic model. For each domain, two simulations have been performed, considering the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission

  9. Agricultural pests under future climate conditions: downscaling of regional climate scenarios with a stochastic weather generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirschi, M.; Stöckli, S.; Dubrovsky, M.; Spirig, C.; Rotach, M. W.; Calanca, P.; Samietz, J.

    2010-09-01

    As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously unaffected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests have been developed, which model the infestation depending on actual weather conditions. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages therefore requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. In particular, pest forecast models are often not based on screen temperature and precipitation alone (i.e., the most generally projected climate variables), but might require input variables such as soil temperature, in-canopy net radiation or leaf wetness. Here, we use a stochastic weather and a re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather data from regional climate change scenarios for 2050 in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios were derived from multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly temperature, precipitation and radiation data were produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather time series were then used for modeling important phases in the lifecycle of codling moth, the major insect pest in apple orchards worldwide. First results indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of phases relevant for pest disease control for projected as compared to current climate (e.g. the flight of the codling moth starts about ten days earlier in future climate), continuing an already observed trend towards more favorable conditions for this insect during the last 20 years.

  10. Potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems of the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moore, M.V.; Pace, M.L.; Mather, J.R.; Murdoch, Peter S.; Howarth, R.W.; Folt, C.L.; Chen, C.-Y.; Hemond, Harold F.; Flebbe, P.A.; Driscoll, C.T.

    1997-01-01

    Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and climatic change are likely to affect freshwater ecosystems within the region interactively. The general climate, at present, is humid continental, and the region receives abundant precipitation. Climatic projections for a 2 ??CO2 atmosphere, however, suggest warmer and drier conditions for much of this region. Annual temperature increases ranging from 3-5??C are projected, with the greatest increases occurring in autumn or winter. According to a water balance model, the projected increase in temperature will result in greater rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration. This could cause a 21 and 31% reduction in annual stream flow in the southern and northern sections of the region, respectively, with greatest reductions occurring in autumn and winter. The amount and duration of snow cover is also projected to decrease across the region, and summer convective thunderstorms are likely to decrease in frequency but increase in intensity. The dual effects of climate change and direct anthropogenic stress will most likely alter hydrological and biogeochemical processes, and, hence, the floral and faunal communities of the region's freshwater ecosystems. For example, the projected increase in evapotranspiration and evaporation could eliminate most bog ecosystems, and increases in water temperature may increase bioaccumulation, and possibly biomagnification, of organic and inorganic contaminants. Not all change may be adverse. For example, a decrease in runoff may reduce the intensity of ongoing estuarine eutrophication, and acidification of aquatic habitats during the spring snowmelt period may be

  11. Impacts of climate change on mangrove ecosystems: A region by region overview

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ward, Raymond D.; Friess, Daniel A.; Day, Richard H.; MacKenzie, Richard A.

    2016-01-01

    Inter-related and spatially variable climate change factors including sea level rise, increased storminess, altered precipitation regime and increasing temperature are impacting mangroves at regional scales. This review highlights extreme regional variation in climate change threats and impacts, and how these factors impact the structure of mangrove communities, their biodiversity and geomorphological setting. All these factors interplay to determine spatially variable resiliency to climate change impacts, and because mangroves are varied in type and geographical location, these systems are good models for understanding such interactions at different scales. Sea level rise is likely to influence mangroves in all regions although local impacts are likely to be more varied. Changes in the frequency and intensity of storminess are likely to have a greater impact on N and Central America, Asia, Australia, and East Africa than West Africa and S. America. This review also highlights the numerous geographical knowledge gaps of climate change impacts, with some regions particularly understudied (e.g., Africa and the Middle East). While there has been a recent drive to address these knowledge gaps especially in South America and Asia, further research is required to allow researchers to tease apart the processes that influence both vulnerability and resilience to climate change. A more globally representative view of mangroves would allow us to better understand the importance of mangrove type and landscape setting in determining system resiliency to future climate change.

  12. Significance of model credibility in estimating climate projection distributions for regional hydroclimatological risk assessments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brekke, L.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, M.

    2008-01-01

    Ensembles of historical climate simulations and climate projections from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset were investigated to determine how model credibility affects apparent relative scenario likelihoods in regional risk assessments. Methods were developed and applied in a Northern California case study. An ensemble of 59 twentieth century climate simulations from 17 WCRP CMIP3 models was analyzed to evaluate relative model credibility associated with a 75-member projection ensemble from the same 17 models. Credibility was assessed based on how models realistically reproduced selected statistics of historical climate relevant to California climatology. Metrics of this credibility were used to derive relative model weights leading to weight-threshold culling of models contributing to the projection ensemble. Density functions were then estimated for two projected quantities (temperature and precipitation), with and without considering credibility-based ensemble reductions. An analysis for Northern California showed that, while some models seem more capable at recreating limited aspects twentieth century climate, the overall tendency is for comparable model performance when several credibility measures are combined. Use of these metrics to decide which models to include in density function development led to local adjustments to function shapes, but led to limited affect on breadth and central tendency, which were found to be more influenced by 'completeness' of the original ensemble in terms of models and emissions pathways. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  13. Impact of Agricultural Practice on Regional Climate in a CoupledLand Surface Mesoscale Model

    SciTech Connect

    Cooley, H.S.; Riley, W.J.; Torn, M.S.; He, Y.

    2004-07-01

    The land surface has been shown to form strong feedbacks with climate due to linkages between atmospheric conditions and terrestrial ecosystem exchanges of energy, momentum, water, and trace gases. Although often ignored in modeling studies, land management itself may form significant feedbacks. Because crops are harvested earlier under drier conditions, regional air temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture, for example, affect harvest timing, particularly of rain-fed crops. This removal of vegetation alters the land surface characteristics and may, in turn, affect regional climate. We applied a coupled climate(MM5) and land-surface (LSM1) model to examine the effects of early and late winter wheat harvest on regional climate in the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility in the Southern Great Plains, where winter wheat accounts for 20 percent of the land area. Within the winter wheat region, simulated 2 m air temperature was 1.3 C warmer in the Early Harvest scenario at mid-day averaged over the two weeks following harvest. Soils in the harvested area were drier and warmer in the top 10 cm and wetter in the 10-20 cm layer. Midday soils were 2.5 C warmer in the harvested area at mid-day averaged over the two weeks following harvest. Harvest also dramatically altered latent and sensible heat fluxes. Although differences between scenarios diminished once both scenarios were harvested, the short-term impacts of land management on climate were comparable to those from land cover change demonstrated in other studies.

  14. Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web.

    PubMed

    Niiranen, Susa; Yletyinen, Johanna; Tomczak, Maciej T; Blenckner, Thorsten; Hjerne, Olle; Mackenzie, Brian R; Müller-Karulis, Bärbel; Neumann, Thomas; Meier, H E Markus

    2013-11-01

    Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multimodel approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat-dominated ecosystem, whereas low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod-dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, nonlinearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem-based management context.

  15. Model experiments on climate change in the Tokyo metropolitan area using regional climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsunematsu, N.; Dairaku, K.

    2011-12-01

    There is a possibility that the future atmospheric warming leads to more frequent heavy rainfall in the metropolitan area, thereby increasing the risk of floods. As part of REsearch Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA) funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan, we started numerical model experiments for investigating the vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in water hazard assessments in the metropolitan area by the use of regional climate scenarios. The model experiments adopt dynamical downscaling techniques. Future climate projections obtained from regional climate model simulations at 20 km horizontal grid spacing are downscaled into finer grids (less than 5 km resolutions) of Regional Atmospheric Modeling System Version 6.0 modified by National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED-RAMS). Prior to performing the dynamical downscaling experiments, the NIED-RAMS model biases are evaluated by comparing long-term surface meteorological observations with results of the model simulations that are carried out by using the Japanese Re-Analysis (JRA) data and Japan Meteorological Agency Meso-Scale Model outputs as the initial and boundary conditions.

  16. Holocene climate changes in the Cape Hatteras region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naughton, F.; Keigwin, L. D.; Peteet, D. M.; Desprat, S.; Oliveira, D.; Abrantes, F.

    2013-12-01

    In the last century many studies have been done in various naturally occurring archives to understand the nature, timing and causes of Holocene natural climate oscillations. Most of the available Holocene climatic reconstructions are however, not based on a direct comparison of terrestrial, marine and ice records making it difficult to obtain an accurate understanding of the interactions of the atmosphere-ocean-land systems and their relationship in global climate variability. Few studies based on direct sea land comparison have been reported for some key areas of the eastern North Atlantic but almost none in the western North Atlantic. Here we present a direct comparison between terrestrial (pollen) and marine (planktonic δ18O) proxies from a well dated (ten AMS 14C dates on planktonic foraminifera and seaweed) slope core (KNR 178-2 JPC 32), retrieved close to Cape Hatteras (35°58.58'N, 74°42.77'W, 1006 m). This study provides information on eastern North America vegetation and on the northwestern Atlantic sea surface response to both Holocene long-term and rapid climate changes. Five intervals, marked mainly by changes in temperate trees are associated with long term climate shifts (12000-9150 ka; 9150-7250 ka; 7250-5350 ka; 5350-2800 ka; 2800-700 ka). Over these intervals, several abrupt cooling events are noted, as well as several indications of shifts in moisture. The comparison of our data with those available and unpublished records from several key sites of the North Atlantic region, gives insights into the nature, timing and causes of Holocene climate oscillations in the North Atlantic region and in particular off Cape Hatteras.

  17. Linking the Weather Generator with Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dubrovsky, Martin; Farda, Ales; Skalak, Petr; Huth, Radan

    2013-04-01

    One of the downscaling approaches, which transform the raw outputs from the climate models (GCMs or RCMs) into data with more realistic structure, is based on linking the stochastic weather generator with the climate model output. The present contribution, in which the parametric daily surface weather generator (WG) M&Rfi is linked to the RCM output, follows two aims: (1) Validation of the new simulations of the present climate (1961-1990) made by the ALADIN-Climate Regional Climate Model at 25 km resolution. The WG parameters are derived from the RCM-simulated surface weather series and compared to those derived from weather series observed in 125 Czech meteorological stations. The set of WG parameters will include statistics of the surface temperature and precipitation series (including probability of wet day occurrence). (2) Presenting a methodology for linking the WG with RCM output. This methodology, which is based on merging information from observations and RCM, may be interpreted as a downscaling procedure, whose product is a gridded WG capable of producing realistic synthetic multivariate weather series for weather-ungauged locations. In this procedure, WG is calibrated with RCM-simulated multi-variate weather series in the first step, and the grid specific WG parameters are then de-biased by spatially interpolated correction factors based on comparison of WG parameters calibrated with gridded RCM weather series and spatially scarcer observations. The quality of the weather series produced by the resultant gridded WG will be assessed in terms of selected climatic characteristics (focusing on characteristics related to variability and extremes of surface temperature and precipitation). Acknowledgements: The present experiment is made within the frame of projects ALARO-Climate (project P209/11/2405 sponsored by the Czech Science Foundation), WG4VALUE (project LD12029 sponsored by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of CR) and VALUE (COST ES 1102

  18. Geographical patterns in cyanobacteria distribution: climate influence at regional scale.

    PubMed

    Pitois, Frédéric; Thoraval, Isabelle; Baurès, Estelle; Thomas, Olivier

    2014-01-28

    Cyanobacteria are a component of public health hazards in freshwater environments because of their potential as toxin producers. Eutrophication has long been considered the main cause of cyanobacteria outbreak and proliferation, whereas many studies emphasized the effect of abiotic parameters (mainly temperature and light) on cell growth rate or toxin production. In view of the growing concerns of global change consequences on public health parameters, this study attempts to enlighten climate influence on cyanobacteria at regional scale in Brittany (NW France). The results show that homogeneous cyanobacteria groups are associated with climatic domains related to temperature, global radiation and pluviometry, whereas microcystins (MCs) occurrences are only correlated to local cyanobacteria species composition. As the regional climatic gradient amplitude is similar to the projected climate evolution on a 30-year timespan, a comparison between the present NW and SE situations was used to extrapolate the evolution of geographical cyanobacteria distribution in Brittany. Cyanobacteria composition should shift toward species associated with more frequent Microcystins occurrences along a NW/SE axis whereas lakes situated along a SW/NE axis should transition to species (mainly Nostocales) associated with lower MCs detection frequencies.

  19. Sensitivity of Regional Climate to Deforestation in the Amazon Basin

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.; Bras, Rafael L.

    1994-01-01

    The deforestation results in several adverse effect on the natural environment. The focus of this paper is on the effects of deforestation on land-surface processes and regional climate of the Amazon basin. In general, the effect of deforestation on climate are likely to depend on the scale of the defrosted area. In this study, we are interested in the effects due to deforestation of areas with a scale of about 250 km. Hence, a meso-scale climate model is used in performing numerical experiments on the sensitivity of regional climate to deforestation of areas with that size. It is found that deforestation results in less net surface radiation, less evaporation, less rainfall, and warmer surface temperature. The magnitude of the of the change in temperature is of the order 0.5 C, the magnitudes of the changes in the other variables are of the order of IO%. In order to verify some of he results of the numerical experiments, the model simulations of net surface radiation are compared to recent observations of net radiation over cleared and undisturbed forest in the Amazon. The results of the model and the observations agree in the following conclusion: the difference in net surface radiation between cleared and undisturbed forest is, almost, equally partioned between net solar radiation and net long-wave radiation. This finding contributes to our understanding of the basic physics in the deforestation problem.

  20. Geographical Patterns in Cyanobacteria Distribution: Climate Influence at Regional Scale

    PubMed Central

    Pitois, Frédéric; Thoraval, Isabelle; Baurès, Estelle; Thomas, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    Cyanobacteria are a component of public health hazards in freshwater environments because of their potential as toxin producers. Eutrophication has long been considered the main cause of cyanobacteria outbreak and proliferation, whereas many studies emphasized the effect of abiotic parameters (mainly temperature and light) on cell growth rate or toxin production. In view of the growing concerns of global change consequences on public health parameters, this study attempts to enlighten climate influence on cyanobacteria at regional scale in Brittany (NW France). The results show that homogeneous cyanobacteria groups are associated with climatic domains related to temperature, global radiation and pluviometry, whereas microcystins (MCs) occurrences are only correlated to local cyanobacteria species composition. As the regional climatic gradient amplitude is similar to the projected climate evolution on a 30-year timespan, a comparison between the present NW and SE situations was used to extrapolate the evolution of geographical cyanobacteria distribution in Brittany. Cyanobacteria composition should shift toward species associated with more frequent Microcystins occurrences along a NW/SE axis whereas lakes situated along a SW/NE axis should transition to species (mainly Nostocales) associated with lower MCs detection frequencies. PMID:24476711

  1. Climate and Land Use Controls on Soil Organic Carbon in the Loess Plateau Region of China

    PubMed Central

    Tao, Bo; Chen, Guangsheng; Lu, Chaoqun; Yang, Jia; Pan, Shufen; Wang, Guodong; Li, Shiqing; Tian, Hanqin

    2014-01-01

    The Loess Plateau of China has the highest soil erosion rate in the world where billion tons of soil is annually washed into Yellow River. In recent decades this region has experienced significant climate change and policy-driven land conversion. However, it has not yet been well investigated how these changes in climate and land use have affected soil organic carbon (SOC) storage on the Loess Plateau. By using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM), we quantified the effects of climate and land use on SOC storage on the Loess Plateau in the context of multiple environmental factors during the period of 1961–2005. Our results show that SOC storage increased by 0.27 Pg C on the Loess Plateau as a result of multiple environmental factors during the study period. About 55% (0.14 Pg C) of the SOC increase was caused by land conversion from cropland to grassland/forest owing to the government efforts to reduce soil erosion and improve the ecological conditions in the region. Historical climate change reduced SOC by 0.05 Pg C (approximately 19% of the total change) primarily due to a significant climate warming and a slight reduction in precipitation. Our results imply that the implementation of “Grain for Green” policy may effectively enhance regional soil carbon storage and hence starve off further soil erosion on the Loess Plateau. PMID:24788559

  2. Climate and land use controls on soil organic carbon in the loess plateau region of China.

    PubMed

    Dang, Yaai; Ren, Wei; Tao, Bo; Chen, Guangsheng; Lu, Chaoqun; Yang, Jia; Pan, Shufen; Wang, Guodong; Li, Shiqing; Tian, Hanqin

    2014-01-01

    The Loess Plateau of China has the highest soil erosion rate in the world where billion tons of soil is annually washed into Yellow River. In recent decades this region has experienced significant climate change and policy-driven land conversion. However, it has not yet been well investigated how these changes in climate and land use have affected soil organic carbon (SOC) storage on the Loess Plateau. By using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM), we quantified the effects of climate and land use on SOC storage on the Loess Plateau in the context of multiple environmental factors during the period of 1961-2005. Our results show that SOC storage increased by 0.27 Pg C on the Loess Plateau as a result of multiple environmental factors during the study period. About 55% (0.14 Pg C) of the SOC increase was caused by land conversion from cropland to grassland/forest owing to the government efforts to reduce soil erosion and improve the ecological conditions in the region. Historical climate change reduced SOC by 0.05 Pg C (approximately 19% of the total change) primarily due to a significant climate warming and a slight reduction in precipitation. Our results imply that the implementation of "Grain for Green" policy may effectively enhance regional soil carbon storage and hence starve off further soil erosion on the Loess Plateau.

  3. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

    PubMed Central

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C.; Gray, Lesley J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Harder, Jerald W.; Knight, Jeff R.; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C.; Wood, Richard A.

    2015-01-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. PMID:26102364

  4. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C.; Gray, Lesley J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Harder, Jerald W.; Knight, Jeff R.; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C.; Wood, Richard A.

    2015-06-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

  5. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.

    PubMed

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C; Gray, Lesley J; Scaife, Adam A; Dunstone, Nick J; Harder, Jerald W; Knight, Jeff R; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C; Wood, Richard A

    2015-01-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. PMID:26102364

  6. Will Climate Change Affect Outbreak Patterns of Planthoppers in Bangladesh?

    PubMed Central

    Ali, M. P.; Huang, Dingcheng; Nachman, G.; Ahmed, Nur; Begum, Mahfuz Ara; Rabbi, M. F.

    2014-01-01

    Recently, planthoppers outbreaks have intensified across Asia resulting in heavy rice yield losses. The problem has been widely reported as being induced by insecticides while other factors such as global warming that could be potential drivers have been neglected. Here, we speculate that global warming may increase outbreak risk of brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens Stål.). We present data that demonstrate the relationship between climate variables (air temperature and precipitation) and the abundance of brown planthopper (BPH) during 1998–2007. Data show that BPH has become significantly more abundant in April over the 10-year period, but our data do not indicate that this is due to a change in climate, as no significant time trends in temperature and precipitation could be demonstrated. The abundance of BPH varied considerably between months within a year which is attributed to seasonal factors, including the availability of suitable host plants. On the other hand, the variation within months is attributed to fluctuations in monthly temperature and precipitation among years. The effects of these weather variables on BPH abundance were analyzed statistically by a general linear model. The statistical model shows that the expected effect of increasing temperatures is ambiguous and interacts with the amount of rainfall. According to the model, months or areas characterized by a climate that is either cold and dry or hot and wet are likely to experience higher levels of BPH due to climate change, whereas other combinations of temperature and rainfall may reduce the abundance of BPH. The analysis indicates that global warming may have contributed to the recent outbreaks of BPH in some rice growing areas of Asia, and that the severity of such outbreaks is likely to increase if climate change exaggerates. Our study highlights the need to consider climate change when designing strategies to manage planthoppers outbreaks. PMID:24618677

  7. Impacts of Climate Change on Grain Sorghum Yield in the Ogallala Aquifer Region, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paul, G.; Anandhi, A.; Prasad, P.; Staggenborg, S. A.; Gowda, P. H.; Rice, C. W.

    2011-12-01

    The Ogallala aquifer region consists of 232 counties spread over 8 states of United States is facing declining water levels and deteriorating water quality which in turn affects the crop production in these counties. Coupled with the water stress, the changing climatic conditions also has adverse effects on crop production. The objectives of this study was to generate the future scenarios of grain sorghum production in the Ogallala region for plausible future climates. Three RCM's participating in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), used in this study are Canadian RCM (CRCM), Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) and the Hadley Regional Model (HRM3). The RCMs were nested within the AOGCMs for the current period 1971-2000 and for the future period 2041-2070 for A2 emission scenario. Grain sorghum yield were simulated across the study region using the CERES-Sorghum model program available in the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) crop simulation model suite. Daily data on rainfall, solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperature generated from the RCM were used as meteorological inputs in the current analysis. Grain sorghum hybrid 'Pioneer 8333' planting date and density were set at 5 June and 160,000 plants per hectare respectively. Simulation results show a decrease in the yield of grain sorghum for A2 emission scenario without considering effects of elevated carbon dioxide and changes in genetics. Results of the study provide critical information needed to help decision/policy makers to device long-term strategies to cope with impacts of climate change and variability on water use and crop production for the Ogallala aquifer region.

  8. Regional Risk Assessment for climate change impacts on coastal aquifers.

    PubMed

    Iyalomhe, F; Rizzi, J; Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2015-12-15

    Coastal aquifers have been identified as particularly vulnerable to impacts on water quantity and quality due to the high density of socio-economic activities and human assets in coastal regions and to the projected rising sea levels, contributing to the process of saltwater intrusion. This paper proposes a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrated with a chain of numerical models to evaluate potential climate change-related impacts on coastal aquifers and linked natural and human systems (i.e., wells, river, agricultural areas, lakes, forests and semi-natural environments). The RRA methodology employs Multi Criteria Decision Analysis methods and Geographic Information Systems functionalities to integrate heterogeneous spatial data on hazard, susceptibility and risk for saltwater intrusion and groundwater level variation. The proposed approach was applied on the Esino River basin (Italy) using future climate hazard scenarios based on a chain of climate, hydrological, hydraulic and groundwater system models running at different spatial scales. Models were forced with the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the period 2071-2100 over four seasons (i.e., winter, spring, summer and autumn). Results indicate that in future seasons, climate change will cause few impacts on the lower Esino River valley. Groundwater level decrease will have limited effects: agricultural areas, forests and semi-natural environments will be at risk only in a region close to the coastline which covers less than 5% of the total surface of the considered receptors; less than 3.5% of the wells will be exposed in the worst scenario. Saltwater intrusion impact in future scenarios will be restricted to a narrow region close to the coastline (only few hundred meters), and thus it is expected to have very limited effects on the Esino coastal aquifer with no consequences on the considered natural and human systems.

  9. Cenozoic climate and paleogeographic changes in the Pacific region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cronin, T. M.; Ogasawara, K.; Wolfe, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    This special issue represents the proceedings of the symposium, held as part of the 29th International Geological Congress, 1992. Other relevant papers on Cainozoic climate change in Japan are also included. Data is assembled from the Pacific Ocean itself, its marginal seas, in particular the Sea of Japan, and the surrounding coastal states. The palaeoenvironment of the region is reconstructed from the analysis of micropalaeontological, isotopic and stratigraphic data from deep-sea and terrestrial cores. -S.J.Stone

  10. Regional Risk Assessment for climate change impacts on coastal aquifers.

    PubMed

    Iyalomhe, F; Rizzi, J; Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2015-12-15

    Coastal aquifers have been identified as particularly vulnerable to impacts on water quantity and quality due to the high density of socio-economic activities and human assets in coastal regions and to the projected rising sea levels, contributing to the process of saltwater intrusion. This paper proposes a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrated with a chain of numerical models to evaluate potential climate change-related impacts on coastal aquifers and linked natural and human systems (i.e., wells, river, agricultural areas, lakes, forests and semi-natural environments). The RRA methodology employs Multi Criteria Decision Analysis methods and Geographic Information Systems functionalities to integrate heterogeneous spatial data on hazard, susceptibility and risk for saltwater intrusion and groundwater level variation. The proposed approach was applied on the Esino River basin (Italy) using future climate hazard scenarios based on a chain of climate, hydrological, hydraulic and groundwater system models running at different spatial scales. Models were forced with the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the period 2071-2100 over four seasons (i.e., winter, spring, summer and autumn). Results indicate that in future seasons, climate change will cause few impacts on the lower Esino River valley. Groundwater level decrease will have limited effects: agricultural areas, forests and semi-natural environments will be at risk only in a region close to the coastline which covers less than 5% of the total surface of the considered receptors; less than 3.5% of the wells will be exposed in the worst scenario. Saltwater intrusion impact in future scenarios will be restricted to a narrow region close to the coastline (only few hundred meters), and thus it is expected to have very limited effects on the Esino coastal aquifer with no consequences on the considered natural and human systems. PMID:26282744

  11. Assessing climate change impacts on water resources in remote mountain regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buytaert, Wouter; De Bièvre, Bert

    2013-04-01

    From a water resources perspective, remote mountain regions are often considered as a basket case. They are often regions where poverty is often interlocked with multiple threats to water supply, data scarcity, and high uncertainties. In these environments, it is paramount to generate locally relevant knowledge about water resources and how they impact local livelihoods. This is often problematic. Existing environmental data collection tends to be geographically biased towards more densely populated regions, and prioritized towards strategic economic activities. Data may also be locked behind institutional and technological barriers. These issues create a "knowledge trap" for data-poor regions, which is especially acute in remote and hard-to-reach mountain regions. We present lessons learned from a decade of water resources research in remote mountain regions of the Andes, Africa and South Asia. We review the entire tool chain of assessing climate change impacts on water resources, including the interrogation and downscaling of global circulation models, translating climate variables in water availability and access, and assessing local vulnerability. In global circulation models, mountain regions often stand out as regions of high uncertainties and lack of agreement of future trends. This is partly a technical artifact because of the different resolution and representation of mountain topography, but it also highlights fundamental uncertainties in climate impacts on mountain climate. This problem also affects downscaling efforts, because regional climate models should be run in very high spatial resolution to resolve local gradients, which is computationally very expensive. At the same time statistical downscaling methods may fail to find significant relations between local climate properties and synoptic processes. Further uncertainties are introduced when downscaled climate variables such as precipitation and temperature are to be translated in hydrologically

  12. How does the sensitivity of climate affect stratospheric solar radiation management?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ricke, K.; Rowlands, D. J.; Ingram, W.; Keith, D.; Morgan, M. G.

    2011-12-01

    If implementation of proposals to engineer the climate through solar radiation management (SRM) ever occurs, it is likely to be contingent upon climate sensitivity. Despite this, no modeling studies have examined how the effectiveness of SRM forcings differs between the typical Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) with climate sensitivities close to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) mean and ones with high climate sensitivities. Here, we use a perturbed physics ensemble modeling experiment to examine variations in the response of climate to SRM under different climate sensitivities. When SRM is used as a substitute for mitigation its ability to maintain the current climate state gets worse with increased climate sensitivity and with increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. However, our results also demonstrate that the potential of SRM to slow climate change, even at the regional level, grows with climate sensitivity. On average, SRM reduces regional rates of temperature change by more than 90 percent and rates of precipitation change by more than 50 percent in these higher sensitivity model configurations. To investigate how SRM might behave in models with high climate sensitivity that are also consistent with recent observed climate change we perform a "perturbed physics" ensemble (PPE) modelling experiment with the climateprediction.net (cpdn) version of the HadCM3L AOGCM. Like other perturbed physics climate modelling experiments, we simulate past and future climate scenarios using a wide range of model parameter combinations that both reproduce past climate within a specified level of accuracy and simulate future climates with a wide range of climate sensitivities. We chose 43 members ("model versions") from a subset of the 1,550 from the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) climateprediction.net project that have data that allow restarts. We use our results to explore how much assessments of SRM that use best

  13. Verification of regional climates of GISS GCM. Part 2: Summer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Rind, David

    1989-01-01

    Verification is made of the synoptic fields, sea-level pressure, precipitation rate, 200mb zonal wind and the surface resultant wind generated by two versions of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model. The models differ regarding the horizontal resolution of the computation grids and the specification of the sea-surface temperatures. Maps of the regional distributions of seasonal means of the model fields are shown alongside maps that show the observed distributions. Comparisons of the model results with observations are discussed and also summarized in tables according to geographic region.

  14. Verification of regional climates of GISS GCM. Part 1: Winter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Rind, David

    1988-01-01

    Verification is made of the synoptic fields, sea level pressure, precipitation rate, 200 mb zonal wind and the surface resultant wind, generated by two versions of the GISS climate model. The models differ regarding the horizontal resolution of the computational grids and the specification of the sea surface temperatures. Maps of the regional distributions of seasonal variations of the model fields are shown alongside maps showing the observed distributions. Comparisons of the model results with observations are discussed, and also summarized in tables according to geographic regions.

  15. Adaptation and the Two-Degree Target - Regional Climate Consequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kreienkamp, F.; Hübener, H.; Spekat, A.; Wolf, H.

    2010-09-01

    In the current debate on climate change, countries are preparing for adaptation to the expected impacts of climate change. For example, Germany has decided its Adaptation Strategy in December 2008. It is the ensuing responsibility of the German Federal States to put this strategy into adaptation measures and specific action. However, to decide on such critical and expensive actions, reliable climate change information is needed. Depending on the relevant sector, this information is required on different scales in time and space. Furthermore, global policy discusses the two-degree target aiming to contain climate change to a warming of less than two degrees relative to pre-industrial values. It is currently discussed, whether or not this goal can be reached at all. However, as governmental bodies, the Environmental Agencies need to address the political aim of the two-degree target and have to respond to the implied climate change signals. At the moment no very high resolution (~10km) climate projections are available for a scenario which stays within the bounds of the two degree target. Therefore, a different approach was taken and will be presented: Global climate simulations with the ECHAM5 model have been evaluated as to the time when the global average warming hits the mark of two degrees above the pre-industrial level. Moreover, this approach is applied for different available SRES scenarios. 30-year time slices were selected centered at these instants in time. The resulting time slices were analyzed in the high resolution RCM simulations of dynamical (CCLM and REMO) as well as statistical (WETTREG) type, driven with the respective GCM scenario run. Thus, a minimum climate change is assessed as the lower bound for which adaptation measures will be definitely necessary. As it turns out, the relevant time frame assessed from the global climate simulations is 2036--2065 for scenario A1B, 2041--2070 for scenario A2 and 2051--2080 for scenario B1. In addition, the

  16. Vegetation response to Holocene climate change in monsoon-influenced region of China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Yan; Yu, Zicheng; Chen, Fahu; Zhang, Jiawu; Yang, Bao

    2009-12-01

    Fossil pollen records from 31 sites with reliable chronologies and high-resolution data in the monsoonal region of China were synthesized to document Holocene vegetation and climate change and to understand the large-scale controls on these changes. The reconstruction of moisture histories was based on a four-class ordinal wetness index at 200-year time slices at individual sites. The vegetation experienced diverse changes over the Holocene in different regions: (1) between tropical seasonal rain forest and more open forest in tropical seasonal rain forest region; (2) from mixed evergreen and deciduous broadleaved forest to more deciduous or Pinus-dominated forest in subtropical region; (3) from mixed evergreen and deciduous broadleaved forest to deciduous forest in temperate deciduous forest region; (4) from deciduous broadleaved forest to conifer-deciduous forest in conifer-deciduous mixed forest region; (5) from steppe forest to steppe in temperate steppe region; and (6) from steppe forest/meadow to meadow/steppe in highland meadow/steppe region. Despite various vegetation sequences in different regions, our synthesis results show that a humid climate generally characterized the early and middle Holocene, and a drier climate prevailed during the late Holocene, with an abrupt shift at ca. 4.5 ka (1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP). Abrupt palynological changes based on a squared-chord distance of pollen assemblages occurred at 11-10, 6-5 and 2-1 ka from most sites. The synthesized pattern of moisture change is similar to the ones inferred from other independent climate proxies; however, gradual vegetation changes in the early Holocene lagged about 1000 yr behind the summer monsoon maximum as indicated by speleothem isotope records from Dongge and Sanbao caves. Human activities likely affected vegetation change greatly during the late Holocene, but the magnitude and precise timing are less clear and require further investigation.

  17. Interactions of climatic factors affecting milk yield and composition

    SciTech Connect

    Sharma, A.K.; Rodriguez, L.A.; Wilcox, C.J.; Collider, R.J.; Bachman, K.C.; Martin, F.G.

    1988-01-01

    Objectives were to evaluate effects of interactions of maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, and solar radiation on milk yield and constituent traits. Effects of climate variables and their interactions were significant but small in most cases. Second order regression models were developed for several variables. Six were examined in detail: Holstein and Jersey milk yields, Holstein fat and Feulgen-DNA reflectance percent, and Jersey protein percent and yield. Maximum temperature had greatest influence on each response, followed by minimum relative humidity and solar radiation. Optimum conditions for milk production were at maximum temperatures below 19. 4/degree/C, increasing solar radiation, and minimum relative humidity between 33.4 and 78.2% (cool sunny days, moderate humidity). Maximum Holstein fat percent of 3.5% was predicted for maximum temperatures below 30.8/degree/C, minimum relative humidity below 89%, and solar radiation below 109 Langleys; actual mean Holstein fat percent was 3. 35%. Optimum climatic conditions for Jersey protein percent were at maximum temperature of 10.6/degree/C with solar radiation at 300 Langleys and relative humidity at 16% (cool sunny days, low humidity). Because noteworthy interactions existed between climate effects, response surface methodology was suitable for determining optimum climatic conditions for milk production.

  18. First Evaluation of the CCAM Aerosol Simulation over Africa: Implications for Regional Climate Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horowitz, H.; Garland, R. M.; Thatcher, M. J.; Naidoo, M.; van der Merwe, J.; Landman, W.; Engelbrecht, F.

    2015-12-01

    An accurate representation of African aerosols in climate models is needed to understand the regional and global radiative forcing and climate impacts of aerosols, at present and under future climate change. However, aerosol simulations in regional climate models for Africa have not been well-tested. Africa contains the largest single source of biomass-burning smoke aerosols and dust globally. Although aerosols are short-lived relative to greenhouse gases, black carbon in particular is estimated to be second only to carbon dioxide in contributing to warming on a global scale. Moreover, Saharan dust is exported great distances over the Atlantic Ocean, affecting nutrient transport to regions like the Amazon rainforest, which can further impact climate. Biomass burning aerosols are also exported from Africa, westward from Angola over the Atlantic Ocean and off the southeastern coast of South Africa to the Indian Ocean. Here, we perform the first extensive quantitative evaluation of the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) aerosol simulation against monitored data, focusing on aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations over Africa. We analyze historical regional simulations for 1999 - 2012 from CCAM consistent with the experimental design of CORDEX at 50 km global horizontal resolution, through the dynamical downscaling of ERA-Interim data reanalysis data, with the CMIP5 emissions inventory (RCP8.5 scenario). CCAM has a prognostic aerosol scheme for organic carbon, black carbon, sulfate, and dust, and non-prognostic sea salt. The CCAM AOD at 550nm was compared to AOD (observed at 440nm, adjusted to 550nm with the Ångström exponent) from long-term AERONET stations across Africa. Sites strongly impacted by dust and biomass burning and with long continuous records were prioritized. In general, the model captures the monthly trends of the AERONET data. This presentation provides a basis for understanding how well aerosol particles are represented over Africa in

  19. Large-scale climatic patterns and area affected by mountain pine beetle in British Columbia, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macias Fauria, Marc; Johnson, E. A.

    2009-03-01

    We present evidence of high spatial synchrony in an area affected by mountain pine beetle (MPB, Dendroctonus ponderosae) across large distances in British Columbia, Canada, in a study of a spatially explicit database of an area affected by MPB-caused tree mortality for the period 1959-2002. We further show that large-scale climatic patterns (Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and, to a lesser degree, Arctic Oscillation (AO)) are strongly related to the observed MPB synchrony, and that they probably operate through controlling the frequency of extreme cold winter temperatures that affect MPB larvae survival. A smaller portion of the data's variability is linked to the onset of the two largest outbreaks in the studied period and might be attributed to dispersal from outbreak-prone areas or else to differences in microhabitat (e.g., host availability) in these regions. The onset of a warm PDO phase in 1976 favored MPB outbreaks by reducing the occurrence of extremely low winter temperatures province-wide. Likewise, the exceptionally high and persistent AO values of the late 1980s and 1990s enhanced MPB activity in the southern and northern parts of the region. Summer warmth cannot be discarded as an important agent at smaller scales.

  20. Climate change and the microbiology of the Antarctic Peninsula region.

    PubMed

    Pearce, David A

    2008-01-01

    Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems are cold, dry, low nutrient environments, with large temperature fluctuations and paradoxically low levels of water availability. These extreme environments are dominated by microorganisms (viruses, archaea, eubacteria, fungi and microsporidia, alveolata, stmramenopila, rhodophyta, green algae and protists), which can either tolerate or are adapted to exploit unfavourable growth conditions. However, climate change is altering the growth environment in Antarctica, and so selection pressures on these microorganisms are changing which, in turn, might affect microbial activity in key processes such as biogeochemical cycling. Although the direct effect of a change in, for example, temperature, is known for very few Antarctic microorganisms, molecular techniques (to monitor population structure) and genomic techniques (to identify specific gene function) are starting to give us an insight into what the potential effects of climate change might be at the cellular level. The key to how microorganisms respond to such change depends upon the rate and magnitude of the change along with the physiological capability of microorganisms to adapt or tolerate those changes. Here we will examine a number of case studies in which the effects of factors such as temperature, nutrient availability, grazing, salinity, seasonal cycle and carbon dioxide concentration have each been demonstrated to affect bacterial community structure in polar and alpine ecosystems. The results suggest that the spatial distribution of genetic variation and, hence, comparative rates of evolution, colonization and extinction are particularly important when considering the response of microbial communities to climate change.

  1. CORDEX.be: COmbining Regional climate Downscaling EXpertise in Belgium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Termonia, Piet; Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; De Ridder, Koen; Fettweis, Xavier; Gobin, Anne; Luyten, Patrick; Marbaix, Philippe; Pottiaux, Eric; Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Van Lipzig, Nicole; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal; Willems, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    The main objective of the ongoing project CORDEX.be, "COmbining Regional Downscaling EXpertise in Belgium: CORDEX and Beyond" is to gather existing and ongoing Belgian research activities in the domain of climate modelling to create a coherent scientific basis for future climate services in Belgium. The project regroups eight Belgian Institutes under a single research program of the Belgian Science Policy (BELSPO). The project involves three regional climate models: the ALARO model, the COSMO-CLM model and the MAR model running according to the guidelines of the CORDEX project and at convection permitting resolution on small domains over Belgium. The project creates a framework to address four objectives/challenges. First, this projects aims to contribute to the EURO-CORDEX project. Secondly, RCP simulations are executed at convection-permitting resolutions (3 to 5 km) on small domains. Thirdly, the output of the atmospheric models is used to drive land surface models (the SURFEX model and the Urbclim model) with urban modules, a crop model (REGCROP), a tides and storm model (COHERENS) and the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model that simulates the fluxes emitted by vegetation. Finally, one work package will translate the uncertainty present in the CORDEX database to the high-resolution output of the CORDEX.be project. The organization of the project will be presented and first results will be shown, demonstrating that convection-permitting models can add extra skill to the mesoscale version of the regional climate models, in particular regarding the extreme value statistics and the diurnal cycle.

  2. On how climate variability influences regional sea level change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther; Kusche, Jürgen; Rietbroek, Roelof; Forootan, Ehsan

    2016-04-01

    Regional trends in sea level change are strongly influenced by climate variations, such as ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation), the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole), or the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). Hence, before computing long term regional sea level change, these sea level variations need to be taken into account as they lead to strong dependencies of computed regional sea level trends on the time period of the investigation. In this study, sea level change during the years 1993 to 2013 is analysed to identify the dominant modes of sea level change caused by climate variations. Here, two different gridded altimetry products are analysed, namely ESA's combined CCI SeaLevel v1.1 ECV product (doi: 10.5270/esa-sea_level_cci-1993_2013-v_1.1-201412), and absolute dynamic topography produced by Ssalto/Duacs and distributed by Aviso, with support from Cnes (http://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/duacs/). Reconstructions using the different decomposition techniques including the standard principle component analysis (PCA), rotated empirical orthogonal functions (REOF) and independent component analysis (ICA) method are analysed. They are compared with sea level change modelled with the global finite-element sea-ice ocean model (FESOM). The results indicate that from the applied methods, ICA is most suitable to separate the individual climate variability signals in independent modes of sea level change. This especially holds for extracting the ENSO contribution in sea level changes, which was better separated by applying ICA, from both altimetry and modelled sea level products. In addition, it is presented how modelled sea level change reflects climate variations compared to that identified in the altimetry products.

  3. Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kasoar, M.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicholas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-01-01

    We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

  4. Streamflow estimation using WRF-Hydro with dynamically downscaled climate variables over southern tropical Indian region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, S.; Sudheer, K. P.; Gunthe, S. S.

    2015-12-01

    Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; June to September), which constitutes around 80% of India's annual rainfall, has shown an increasing trend in intensity and frequency of extreme events (Goswami et al., 2006). It is a widely recognized fact that the increasing temperature in association with anthropogenic activities can affect the hydrological cycle, which leads to extreme events. In addition a shift in extremes of the spatial pattern of ISMR has recently been observed (Ghosh et al., 2011). Such changes in rainfall on temporal and spatial scale can further affect the stream flow over a given region subsequently making water resource management a difficult task (Mondal and Mujumdar, 2015). The hydrological models used for the stream flow estimation are dependent on various climate variables as input data. These climate variables could be obtained through either observational networks or climate model outputs. Due to the scarcity of the observational data over the Indian region and the coarse resolution of global climate model output, which is used as input to hydrologic models, large uncertainties are introduced in stream flow output (Overgaard et al., 2007). In the present study we have used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (Skamarock et al. 2008) to downscale the essential climate variables (surface temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, etc.) as an input for its coupled hydrological extension, WRF Hydro (NCAR user's guide). We will present the results obtained from the WRF-hydro simulation to estimate the stream flow over the Thamirabarani river basin in Southern Tropical Indian region. Preliminary simulations using WRF to estimate the precipitation showed the reasonable quantitative agreement with observed values. An attempt will be made to demonstrate how these results can further be used for developing flood-forecasting techniques and for local regional water resource management.

  5. "The Effect of Alternative Representations of Lake Temperatures and Ice on WRF Regional Climate Simulations"

    EPA Science Inventory

    Lakes can play a significant role in regional climate, modulating inland extremes in temperature and enhancing precipitation. Representing these effects becomes more important as regional climate modeling (RCM) efforts focus on simulating smaller scales. When using the Weathe...

  6. Multiple satellite estimates of urban fractions and climate effects at regional scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jia, G.; Xu, R.; He, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Regional climate is controlled by large scale forcing at lateral boundary and physical processes within the region. Landuse in East Asia has been changed substantially in the last three decades, featured with expansion of urban built-up at unprecedented scale and speed. The fast expansion of urban areas could contribute to local even regional climate change. However, current spatial datasets of urban fractions do not well represent extend and expansion of urban areas in the regions, and the best available satellite data and remote sensing techniques have not been well applied to serve regional modeling of urbanization impacts on near surface temperature and other climate variables. Better estimates of localized urban fractions and urban climate effects are badly needed. Here we use high and mid resolution satellite data to estimate urban fractions and to assess effects of urban heat islands at local and regional scales. With our fractional cover, data fusion, and differentiated threshold approaches, estimated urban extent was greater than previously reported in many global datasets. Many city clusters were merging into each other, with gradual blurring boundaries and disappearing of gaps among member cities. Cities and towns were more connected with roads and commercial corridors, while wildland and urban greens became more isolated as patches among built-up areas. Those new estimates are expected to effectively improve climate simulation at local and regional scales in East Asia. There were significant positive relations between urban fraction and urban heat island effects as demonstrated by VNIR and TIR data from multiple satellites. Stronger warming was detected at the meteorological stations that experienced greater urbanization, i.e., those with a higher urbanization rate. While the total urban area affects the absolute temperature values, the change of the urban area (urbanization rate) likely affects the temperature trend. Increases of approximately 10% in

  7. Desertification of forest, range and desert in Tehran province, affected by climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eskandari, Hadi; Borji, Moslem; Khosravi, Hassan; Mesbahzadeh, Tayebeh

    2016-06-01

    Climate change has been identified as a leading human and environmental crisis of the twenty-first century. Drylands throughout the world have always undergone periods of degradation due to naturally occurring fluctuation in climate. Persistence of widespread degradation in arid and semiarid regions of Iran necessitates monitoring and evaluation. This paper aims to monitor the desertification trend in three types of land use, including range, forest and desert, affected by climate change in Tehran province for the 2000s and 2030s. For assessing climate change at Mehrabad synoptic station, the data of two emission scenarios, including A2 and B2, were used, utilizing statistical downscaling techniques and data generated by the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). The index of net primary production (NPP) resulting from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite images was employed as an indicator of destruction from 2001 to 2010. The results showed that temperature is the most significant driving force which alters the net primary production in rangeland, forest and desert land use in Tehran province. On the basis of monitoring findings under real conditions, in the 2000s, over 60 % of rangelands and 80 % of the forest were below the average production in the province. On the other hand, the long-term average changes of NPP in the rangeland and forests indicated the presence of relatively large areas of these land uses with a production rate lower than the desert. The results also showed that, assuming the existence of circumstances of each emission scenarios, the desertification status will not improve significantly in the rangelands and forests of Tehran province.

  8. Changes in landscape diversity induced by climate over a Mediterranean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Acampora, A.; Manfreda, Salvatore; Carone, M. T.; Simoniello, T.; Sole, Aurelia

    2010-05-01

    Climate is certainly a controlling factor for the spatial organization of vegetation and the distribution of ecosystems at the global scale (Scheiner and Rey-Benayas, 1994). At this and several other scales, plant types, species richness, distribution and structure of vegetation are closely related to resources availability (including water, nutrients, etc.), soil type and surface morphology. The study of the existing links between vegetation organization and climatic parameters can be extremely useful for determining the effects induced by future climate changes on our landscape. In this context, the Basilicata Region (in Southern Italy) is an ideal test area to analyze the relationship between climate and vegetation, since it is in the core of the Biodiversity Hotspot area of the Mediterranean basin and its territory includes a significant variety of climatic conditions ranging from humid to semi-arid and arid. This variability affects the spatial characteristics of land cover (composition and configuration of different patches) that have been studied using landscape ecology indices. In particular, some landscape metrics (e.g., Shannon's Diversity index, Simpson's Diversity index, Mean Patch Area, Shannon's Evenness index, Simpson's Evenness index, Interspersion and Juxtaposition index) are strongly influenced by the climatic conditions described through climatic indices as well as vegetation water stress defined using numerical simulation of soil-vegetation interactions. It was observed that landscape diversity tends to increase non linearly with climate changing from dry to humid, with a sharp increase observed when moving from arid to semiarid conditions. This behaviour seems to be similar to the relationship observed in literature between the number of plant species and climate (e.g., Shmida and Burgess, 1982). These findings can be a useful basis for the characterization of landscape diversity in the context of identification and delimitation of protected

  9. The impacts of climate changes in the renewable energy resources in the Caribbean region

    SciTech Connect

    Erickson III, David J

    2010-02-01

    Assessment of renewable energy resources such as surface solar radiation and wind current has great relevance in the development of local and regional energy policies. This paper examines the variability and availability of these resources as a function of possible climate changes for the Caribbean region. Global climate changes have been reported in the last decades, causing changes in the atmospheric dynamics, which affects the net solar radiation balance at the surface and the wind strength and direction. For this investigation, the future climate changes for the Caribbean are predicted using the parallel climate model (PCM) and it is coupled with the numerical model regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS) to simulate the solar and wind energy spatial patterns changes for the specific case of the island of Puerto Rico. Numerical results from PCM indicate that the Caribbean basin from 2041 to 2055 will experience a slight decrease in the net surface solar radiation (with respect to the years 1996-2010), which is more pronounced in the western Caribbean sea. Results also indicate that the easterly winds have a tendency to increase in its magnitude, especially from the years 2070 to 2098. The regional model showed that important areas to collect solar energy are located in the eastern side of Puerto Rico, while the more intense wind speed is placed around the coast. A future climate change is expected in the Caribbean that will result in higher energy demands, but both renewable energy sources will have enough intensity to be used in the future as alternative energy resources to mitigate future climate changes.

  10. Global and Regional Temperature-change Potentials for Near-term Climate Forcers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Collins, W.J.; Fry, M. M.; Yu, H.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Shindell, D. T.; West, J. J.

    2013-01-01

    The emissions of reactive gases and aerosols can affect climate through the burdens of ozone, methane and aerosols, having both cooling and warming effects. These species are generally referred to near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) or short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), because of their short atmospheric residence time. The mitigation of these would be attractive for both air quality and climate on a 30-year timescale, provided it is not at the expense of CO2 mitigation. In this study we examine the climate effects of the emissions of NTCFs from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon - BC) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides - NOx, volatile organic compounds VOC, and carbon monoxide - CO). For the aerosols the global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs) are simply time-dependent scaling of the equilibrium radiative forcing, with the GTPs decreasing more rapidly with time than the GWPs. While the aerosol climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region, emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other northern hemisphere regions. On regional basis, the northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20-30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions. We also found that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to black carbon emissions from South Asia.

  11. Recent changes in phytoplankton communities associated with rapid regional climate change along the western Antarctic Peninsula.

    PubMed

    Montes-Hugo, Martin; Doney, Scott C; Ducklow, Hugh W; Fraser, William; Martinson, Douglas; Stammerjohn, Sharon E; Schofield, Oscar

    2009-03-13

    The climate of the western shelf of the Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is undergoing a transition from a cold-dry polar-type climate to a warm-humid sub-Antarctic-type climate. Using three decades of satellite and field data, we document that ocean biological productivity, inferred from chlorophyll a concentration (Chl a), has significantly changed along the WAP shelf. Summertime surface Chl a (summer integrated Chl a approximately 63% of annually integrated Chl a) declined by 12% along the WAP over the past 30 years, with the largest decreases equatorward of 63 degrees S and with substantial increases in Chl a occurring farther south. The latitudinal variation in Chl a trends reflects shifting patterns of ice cover, cloud formation, and windiness affecting water-column mixing. Regional changes in phytoplankton coincide with observed changes in krill (Euphausia superba) and penguin populations.

  12. Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray

    2016-04-01

    The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season

  13. A review on regional convection permitting climate modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Lipzig, Nicole; Prein, Andreas; Brisson, Erwan; Van Weverberg, Kwinten; Demuzere, Matthias; Saeed, Sajjad; Stengel, Martin

    2016-04-01

    With the increase of computational resources, it has recently become possible to perform climate model integrations where at least part the of convection is resolved. Since convection-permitting models (CPMs) are performing better than models where convection is parameterized, especially for high-impact weather like extreme precipitation, there is currently strong scientific progress in this research domain (Prein et al., 2015). Another advantage of CPMs, that have a horizontal grid spacing <4 km, is that they better resolve complex orography and land use. The regional climate model COSMO-CLM is frequently applied for CPM simulations, due to its non-hydrostatic dynamics and open international network of scientists. This presentation consists of an overview of the recent progress in CPM, with a focus on COSMO-CLM. It consists of three parts, namely the discussion of i) critical components of CPM, ii) the added value of CPM in the present-day climate and iii) the difference in climate sensitivity in CPM compared to coarser scale models. In terms of added value, the CPMs especially improve the representation of precipitation's, diurnal cycle, intensity and spatial distribution. However, an in depth-evaluation of cloud properties with CCLM over Belgium indicates a strong underestimation of the cloud fraction, causing an overestimation of high temperature extremes (Brisson et al., 2016). In terms of climate sensitivity, the CPMs indicate a stronger increase in flash floods, changes in hail storm characteristics, and reductions in the snowpack over mountains compared to coarser scale models. In conclusion, CPMs are a very promising tool for future climate research. However, additional efforts are necessary to overcome remaining deficiencies, like improving the cloud characteristics. This will be a challenging task due to compensating deficiencies that currently exist in `state-of-the-art' models, yielding a good representation of average climate conditions. In the light

  14. The UC-LLNL Regional Climate System Model

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, N.L.; Kim, Jinwon

    1996-09-01

    The UC-LLNL Regional Climate System Model has been under development since 1991. The unique system simulates climate from the global scale down to the watershed catchment scale, and consists of data pre- and post- processors, and four model components. The four model components are (1) a mesoscale atmospheric simulation model, (2) a soil-plant-snow model, (3) a watershed hydrology-riverflow model, and (4) a suite of crop response models. The first three model components have been coupled, and the system includes two-way feedbacks between the soil-plant-snow model and the mesoscale atmospheric simulation model. This three-component version of RCSM has been tested, validated, and successfully used for operational quantitative precipitation forecasts and seasonal water resource studies over the southwestern US. We are currently implementation and validating the fourth component, the Decision Support system for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). A description of the UC-LLNL RCSM and some recent results are presented.

  15. Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms.

    PubMed

    Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

    2014-01-01

    The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions.

  16. Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms.

    PubMed

    Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

    2014-01-01

    The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions. PMID:24518587

  17. Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; de Lavergne, Jean-Guy Devezeaux; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

    2014-02-01

    The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions.

  18. Regional Water System Vulnerabilities and Strengths for Unavoidable Climate Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gleick, P. H.; Palaniappan, M.; Christian-Smith, J.; Cooley, H.

    2011-12-01

    A wide range of options are available to help water systems prepare and adapt for unavoidable climate impacts, but these options vary depending on region, climatic conditions, economic status, and technical infrastructure in place. Drawing on case studies from the United States, India, and elsewhere, and from both urban and agricultural water systems, risks to water supply and quality are evaluated and summarized and categories of responses to help improve the effectiveness of adaptation policies are reviewed. Among the issues to be discussed are characteristics unique to developing country cities, such as the predominance of informal actors in the water sector. The formal, or government sector, which often exclusively manages water access and distribution in developed country cities, is only one among many players in the water sector in developing country cities. Informal access to water includes direct access by individuals through private groundwater systems, private water markets using vendors or sales of bottled water, and rainwater harvesting systems on individual homes. In this environment, with already existing pressures on water availability and use, the impacts of climate change on water will be strongly felt. This complicates planning for water supply and demand and risks increasing already prevalent water insecurity, especially for urban poor. In wealthier countries, any planning for water-related climate impacts tends to take the form of "business as usual" responses, such as efforts to expand supply with new infrastructure, manage demand through conservation programs, or simply put off addressing the problem to the next generation of managers and users. These approaches can be effective, but also risk missing unusual, non-linear, or threshold impacts. Examples of more informed and innovative efforts to substantively address climate change risks will be presented.

  19. How will Climate Change Affect Agriculture over the Next 10-30 Years

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Agriculture is dependent upon the climate resources of temperature, sunlight, precipitation, and carbon dioxide. Efficient production depends upon optimum conditions of temperature and water supply and changes in these climatic variables will affect plant and animal systems over the next 10- 30 year...

  20. Can quantile mapping improve precipitation extremes from regional climate models?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tani, Satyanarayana; Gobiet, Andreas

    2015-04-01

    The ability of quantile mapping to accurately bias correct regard to precipitation extremes is investigated in this study. We developed new methods by extending standard quantile mapping (QMα) to improve the quality of bias corrected extreme precipitation events as simulated by regional climate model (RCM) output. The new QM version (QMβ) was developed by combining parametric and nonparametric bias correction methods. The new nonparametric method is tested with and without a controlling shape parameter (Qmβ1 and Qmβ0, respectively). Bias corrections are applied on hindcast simulations for a small ensemble of RCMs at six different locations over Europe. We examined the quality of the extremes through split sample and cross validation approaches of these three bias correction methods. This split-sample approach mimics the application to future climate scenarios. A cross validation framework with particular focus on new extremes was developed. Error characteristics, q-q plots and Mean Absolute Error (MAEx) skill scores are used for evaluation. We demonstrate the unstable behaviour of correction function at higher quantiles with QMα, whereas the correction functions with for QMβ0 and QMβ1 are smoother, with QMβ1 providing the most reasonable correction values. The result from q-q plots demonstrates that, all bias correction methods are capable of producing new extremes but QMβ1 reproduces new extremes with low biases in all seasons compared to QMα, QMβ0. Our results clearly demonstrate the inherent limitations of empirical bias correction methods employed for extremes, particularly new extremes, and our findings reveals that the new bias correction method (Qmß1) produces more reliable climate scenarios for new extremes. These findings present a methodology that can better capture future extreme precipitation events, which is necessary to improve regional climate change impact studies.

  1. Climate change is affecting altitudinal migrants and hibernating species.

    PubMed

    Inouye, D W; Barr, B; Armitage, K B; Inouye, B D

    2000-02-15

    Calendar date of the beginning of the growing season at high altitude in the Colorado Rocky Mountains is variable but has not changed significantly over the past 25 years. This result differs from growing evidence from low altitudes that climate change is resulting in a longer growing season, earlier migrations, and earlier reproduction in a variety of taxa. At our study site, the beginning of the growing season is controlled by melting of the previous winter's snowpack. Despite a trend for warmer spring temperatures the average date of snowmelt has not changed, perhaps because of the trend for increased winter precipitation. This disjunction between phenology at low and high altitudes may create problems for species, such as many birds, that migrate over altitudinal gradients. We present data indicating that this already may be true for American robins, which are arriving 14 days earlier than they did in 1981; the interval between arrival date and the first date of bare ground has grown by 18 days. We also report evidence for an effect of climate change on hibernation behavior; yellow-bellied marmots are emerging 38 days earlier than 23 years ago, apparently in response to warmer spring air temperatures. Migrants and hibernators may experience problems as a consequence of these changes in phenology, which may be exacerbated if climate models are correct in their predictions of increased winter snowfall in our study area. The trends we report for earlier formation of permanent snowpack and for a longer period of snow cover also have implications for hibernating species. PMID:10677510

  2. Climate change is affecting altitudinal migrants and hibernating species.

    PubMed

    Inouye, D W; Barr, B; Armitage, K B; Inouye, B D

    2000-02-15

    Calendar date of the beginning of the growing season at high altitude in the Colorado Rocky Mountains is variable but has not changed significantly over the past 25 years. This result differs from growing evidence from low altitudes that climate change is resulting in a longer growing season, earlier migrations, and earlier reproduction in a variety of taxa. At our study site, the beginning of the growing season is controlled by melting of the previous winter's snowpack. Despite a trend for warmer spring temperatures the average date of snowmelt has not changed, perhaps because of the trend for increased winter precipitation. This disjunction between phenology at low and high altitudes may create problems for species, such as many birds, that migrate over altitudinal gradients. We present data indicating that this already may be true for American robins, which are arriving 14 days earlier than they did in 1981; the interval between arrival date and the first date of bare ground has grown by 18 days. We also report evidence for an effect of climate change on hibernation behavior; yellow-bellied marmots are emerging 38 days earlier than 23 years ago, apparently in response to warmer spring air temperatures. Migrants and hibernators may experience problems as a consequence of these changes in phenology, which may be exacerbated if climate models are correct in their predictions of increased winter snowfall in our study area. The trends we report for earlier formation of permanent snowpack and for a longer period of snow cover also have implications for hibernating species.

  3. Modeling the Impacts of Global Climate and Regional Land Use Change on Regional Climate, Air Quality and Public Health in the New York Metropolitan Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenthal, J. E.; Knowlton, K. M.; Kinney, P. L.

    2002-12-01

    There is an imminent need to downscale the global climate models used by international consortiums like the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to predict the future regional impacts of climate change. To meet this need, a "place-based" climate model that makes specific regional projections about future environmental conditions local inhabitants could face is being created by the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, in collaboration with other researchers and universities, for New York City and the 31 surrounding counties. This presentation describes the design and initial results of this modeling study, aimed at simulating the effects of global climate change and regional land use change on climate and air quality over the northeastern United States in order to project the associated public health impacts in the region. Heat waves and elevated concentrations of ozone and fine particles are significant current public health stressors in the New York metropolitan area. The New York Climate and Health Project is linking human dimension and natural sciences models to assess the potential for future public health impacts from heat stress and air quality, and yield improved tools for assessing climate change impacts. The model will be applied to the NY metropolitan east coast region. The following questions will be addressed: 1. What changes in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events are likely to occur over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and land cover (LU/LC) and climate change in the region? 2. How might the frequency and severity of episodic concentrations of ozone (O3) and airborne particulate matter smaller than 2.5 æm in diameter (PM2.5) change over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and climate change in the metropolitan region? 3. What is the range of possible human health impacts of these changes in the region? 4. How might projected future human

  4. Climate information for the wind energy industry in the Mediterranean Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calmanti, Sandro; Davis, Melanie; Schmidt, Peter; Dell'Aquila, Alessandro

    2013-04-01

    According to the World Wind Energy Association the total wind generation capacity worldwide has come close to cover 3% of the world's electricity demand in 2011. Thanks to the enormous resource potential and the relatively low costs of construction and maintenance of wind power plants, the wind energy sector will remain one of the most attractive renewable energy investment options. Studies reveal that climate variability and change pose a new challenge to the entire renewable energy sector, and in particular for wind energy. Stakeholders in the wind energy sector mainly use, if available, site-specific historical climate information to assess wind resources at a given project site. So far, this is the only source of information that investors (e.g., banks) are keen to accept for decisions concerning the financing of wind energy projects. However, one possible wind energy risk at the seasonal scale is the volatility of earnings from year to year investment. The most significant risk is therefore that not enough units of energy (or megawatt hours) can be generated from the project to capture energy sales to pay down debt in any given quarter or year. On the longer time scale the risk is that a project's energy yields fall short of their estimated levels, resulting in revenues that consistently come in below their projection, over the life of the project. The nature of the risk exposure determines considerable interest in wind scenarios, as a potential component of both the planning and operational phase of a renewable energy project. Fundamentally, by using climate projections, the assumption of stationary wind regimes can be compared to other scenarios where large scale changes in atmospheric circulation patterns may affect local wind regimes. In the framework of CLIM-RUN EU FP7 project, climate experts are exploring the potential of seasonal to decadal climate forecast techniques (time-frame 2012-2040) and regional climate scenarios (time horizon 2040+) over the

  5. Attributing Sources of Variability in Regional Climate Model Experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaufman, C. G.; Sain, S. R.

    2008-12-01

    Variability in regional climate model (RCM) projections may be due to a number of factors, including the choice of RCM itself, the boundary conditions provided by a driving general circulation model (GCM), and the choice of emission scenario. We describe a new statistical methodology, Gaussian Process ANOVA, which allows us to decompose these sources of variability while also taking account of correlations in the output across space. Our hierarchical Bayesian framework easily allows joint inference about high probability envelopes for the functions, as well as decompositions of total variance that vary over the domain of the functions. These may be used to create maps illustrating the magnitude of each source of variability across the domain of the regional model. We use this method to analyze temperature and precipitation data from the Prudence Project, an RCM intercomparison project in which RCMs were crossed with GCM forcings and scenarios in a designed experiment. This work was funded by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP).

  6. Influence of the Laurentian Great Lakes on Regional Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Notaro, M.; Holman, K.; Zarrin, A.; Fluck, E.; Vavrus, S. J.; Bennington, V.

    2012-12-01

    The influence of the Laurentian Great Lakes on climate is assessed by comparing two decade-long simulations, with the lakes either included or excluded, using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model Version 4. The Great Lakes dampen the variability in near-surface air temperature across the surrounding region, while reducing the amplitude of the diurnal cycle and annual cycle of air temperature. The impacts of the Great Lakes on the regional surface energy budget include an increase (decrease) in turbulent fluxes during the cold (warm) season and an increase in surface downward shortwave radiation flux during summer due to diminished atmospheric moisture and convective cloud amount. Changes in the hydrologic budget due to the presence of the Great Lakes include increases in evaporation and precipitation during October-March and decreases during May-August, along with springtime reductions in snowmelt-related runoff. Circulation responses consist of a regionwide decrease in sea-level pressure in autumn-winter and an increase in summer, with enhanced ascent and descent in the two seasons, respectively. The most pronounced simulated impact of the Great Lakes on synoptic systems traversing the basin is a weakening of cold-season anticyclones.

  7. Regional climate model projections of the South Pacific Convergence Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Evans, J. P.; Bormann, K.; Katzfey, J.; Dean, S.; Arritt, R.

    2016-08-01

    This study presents results from regional climate model (RCM) projections for the south-west Pacific Ocean. The regional models used bias corrected sea surface temperatures. Six global climate models (GCMs) were used to drive a global variable resolution model on a quasi-uniform 60 km grid. One of these simulations was used to drive three limited area regional models. Thus a four member ensemble was produced by different RCMs downscaling the same GCM (GFDL2.1), and a six member ensemble was produced by the same RCM (Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model—CCAM) downscaling six different GCMs. Comparison of the model results with precipitation observations shows the differences to be dominated by the choice of RCM, with all the CCAM simulations performing similarly and generally having lower error than the other RCMs. However, evaluating aspects of the model representation of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) does not show CCAM to perform better in this regard. In terms of the future projections of the SPCZ for the December-January-February season, the ensemble showed no consensus change in most characteristics though a majority of the ensemble members project a decrease in the SPCZ strength. Thus, similar to GCM based studies, there is large uncertainty concerning future changes in the SPCZ and there is no evidence to suggest that future changes will be outside the natural variability. These RCM simulations do not support an increase in the frequency of zonal SPCZ events.

  8. Evaluation of Regional Climate Simulations over the Great Lakes Region Driven by Three Global Data Sets

    SciTech Connect

    Zhong, Shiyuan; Li, Xiuping; Bian, Xindi; Heilman, Warren E.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Gustafson, William I.

    2012-06-27

    The performance of regional climate simulations is evaluated for the Great Lakes region. Three 10-year (1990–1999) current-climate simulations are performed using the MM5 regional climate model (RCM) with 36-km horizontal resolution. The simulations employed identical configuration and physical parameterizations, but different lateral boundary conditions and sea-surface temperatures derived from the NCEP Global Reanalysis and output from the CCSM3 and GISS general circulation models (GCMs). The simulation results are compared to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The three RCM simulations appeared to be more accurate in winter and least accurate in summer, and more accurate aloft than near the surface. The reanalysis-constrained simulation adequately captured the spatial distribution and seasonal cycle of the observed surface-air temperature and precipitation, but it produced consistently across all seasons a cold bias that is generally larger over the lakes than over land and a wet bias due to an overestimation of nonconvective precipitation. The simulated seasonal cycle of moisture–flux convergence over the region was in very good agreement with NARR. The two GCM-driven runs adequately simulated the spatial and seasonal variation of temperature, but overestimated cold-season precipitation and underestimated summer precipitation, reversing the observed annual precipitation cycle. The GISS-driven run failed to simulate the prevailing low-level flow and moisture convergence patterns. All three RCM simulations successfully captured the impact of the Great Lakes on the region's climate, especially on winter precipitation, a significant improvement over coarse-resolution GCM simulations over the region.

  9. An Evaluation of Drought Indices in Different Climatic Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shahabfar, A.; Eitzinger, J.

    2009-04-01

    Drought has become a recurrent phenomenon in Iran in the last few decades. Significant drought conditions were observed during years of late 2000s and the trend continued up to now. The country's agricultural sector and water resources have been under severe constraints from the recurrent droughts. In this study, spatial and temporal dimensions of meteorological droughts in Iran have been investigated from vulnerability concept. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was developed to detect drought and wet periods at different time scales, an important characteristic that is not accomplished with typical drought indices. More and more users employ the SPI to monitor droughts. Although calculation of the SPI is easier than other drought indices, such as the Palmer Drought Index, it is still relatively complex. Two indices called the China-Z Index (CZI) and Modified China-Z Index (CZI) have been used by many scientists to monitor moisture conditions across their country or their case study area. The calculations of these indices are easier than the SPI. Another indices, the statistical Z-Score and percent of normal (PN), can also be used to monitor droughts. This paper evaluates the SPI, CZI, MCZI, Z-Score and PN on 1-, 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-month time scales using monthly precipitation totals for six climatic regions in Iran from January 2000 to December 2005 as a sever dry period and representing six climatic regions include: mountain, semi mountain, desert, semi-desert, coastal desert and coastal wet. Advantages and disadvantages for the application of each index are compared. Study results indicate that the CZI, MCZI, Z-Score and PN can provide results similar to the SPI for all time scales, and that the calculations of these indices are relatively easy compared with the SPI, possibly offering better tools to monitor moisture conditions. KEY WORDS: drought monitoring, drought indices, soil moisture, climatic regions.

  10. Regional climate models downscaling in the Alpine area with multimodel superensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cane, D.; Barbarino, S.; Renier, L. A.; Ronchi, C.

    2013-05-01

    The climatic scenarios show a strong signal of warming in the Alpine area already for the mid-XXI century. The climate simulations, however, even when obtained with regional climate models (RCMs), are affected by strong errors when compared with observations, due both to their difficulties in representing the complex orography of the Alps and to limitations in their physical parametrization. Therefore, the aim of this work is to reduce these model biases by using a specific post processing statistic technique, in order to obtain a more suitable projection of climate change scenarios in the Alpine area. For our purposes we used a selection of regional climate models (RCMs) runs which were developed in the framework of the ENSEMBLES project. They were carefully chosen with the aim to maximise the variety of leading global climate models and of the RCMs themselves, calculated on the SRES scenario A1B. The reference observations for the greater Alpine area were extracted from the European dataset E-OBS (produced by the ENSEMBLES project), which have an available resolution of 25 km. For the study area of Piedmont daily temperature and precipitation observations (covering the period from 1957 to the present) were carefully gridded on a 14 km grid over Piedmont region through the use of an optimal interpolation technique. Hence, we applied the multimodel superensemble technique to temperature fields, reducing the high biases of RCMs temperature field compared to observations in the control period. We also proposed the application of a brand new probabilistic multimodel superensemble dressing technique, already applied to weather forecast models successfully, to RCMS: the aim was to estimate precipitation fields, with careful description of precipitation probability density functions conditioned to the model outputs. This technique allowed for reducing the strong precipitation overestimation, arising from the use of RCMs, over the Alpine chain and to reproduce well the

  11. [Climate change and hygienic assessment of weather conditions in Omsk and the Omsk Region].

    PubMed

    Gudinova, Zh V; Akimova, I S; Klochikhina, A V

    2010-01-01

    The paper deals with trends in climate change in the Omsk Region: the increases in average annual air temperatures and rainfall, which are attended by the higher number of abnormal weather events, as shown by the data of the Omsk Regional Board, Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring. There is information on weather severity in 2008: there was mild weather in spring and severe weather in winter, in January in particular. A survey of physicians has revealed that medical workers are concerned about climate problems and global warming and ascertained weather events mostly affecting the population's health. People worry most frequently about a drastic temperature drop or rise (as high as 71%), atmospheric pressure change (53%), and "when it is too hot in summer (47%).

  12. Uncertainties in future ozone and PM10 projections over Europe from a regional climate multiphysics ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiménez-Guerrero, P.; Jerez, S.; Montávez, J. P.; Trigo, R. M.

    2013-11-01

    Due to the computational time required for modeling air quality climatologies, the characterization of processes introducing the largest uncertainty in air quality-climate projections is a sound field of research. Here an air quality ensemble is assessed over Europe for present (1971-2000) and future (2071-2100, SRES A2) periods to characterize the sensitivity of regional air quality projections to the physics of the regional climate model driving the simulations. The ensemble comprises eight members resulting from combining two options of parameterization schemes for the planetary boundary layer, cumulus, and microphysics. The differences in the ensemble members (spread) for the concentration of tropospheric ozone and particulate matter (PM10) are strongly affected by the physics selected and could be considered as a matter of uncertainty in the change signals. Also, the leading processes causing the largest uncertainties in air quality projections have been identified and are mainly related to the election of the cumulus schemes.

  13. Applying Multimodel Ensemble from Regional Climate Models for Improving Runoff Projections on Semiarid Regions of Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia Galiano, S. G.; Olmos, P.; Giraldo Osorio, J. D.

    2015-12-01

    In the Mediterranean area, significant changes on temperature and precipitation are expected throughout the century. These trends could exacerbate the existing conditions in regions already vulnerable to climatic variability, reducing the water availability. Improving knowledge about plausible impacts of climate change on water cycle processes at basin scale, is an important step for building adaptive capacity to the impacts in this region, where severe water shortages are expected for the next decades. RCMs ensemble in combination with distributed hydrological models with few parameters, constitutes a valid and robust methodology to increase the reliability of climate and hydrological projections. For reaching this objective, a novel methodology for building Regional Climate Models (RCMs) ensembles of meteorological variables (rainfall an temperatures), was applied. RCMs ensembles are justified for increasing the reliability of climate and hydrological projections. The evaluation of RCMs goodness-of-fit to build the ensemble is based on empirical probability density functions (PDF) extracted from both RCMs dataset and a highly resolution gridded observational dataset, for the time period 1961-1990. The applied method is considering the seasonal and annual variability of the rainfall and temperatures. The RCMs ensembles constitute the input to a distributed hydrological model at basin scale, for assessing the runoff projections. The selected hydrological model is presenting few parameters in order to reduce the uncertainties involved. The study basin corresponds to a head basin of Segura River Basin, located in the South East of Spain. The impacts on runoff and its trend from observational dataset and climate projections, were assessed. Considering the control period 1961-1990, plausible significant decreases in runoff for the time period 2021-2050, were identified.

  14. Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

    2003-04-01

    More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure < 990 hPa) we find an increase for western Europe. Strong wind events can be defined via different percentile values of the windspeed (e.g. above the 95 percentile). By this means the relationship between strong wind events and cyclones is also investigated. For several regions (e.g. Germany, France, Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

  15. Integration of climatic indices in an objective probabilistic model for establishing and mapping viticultural climatic zones in a region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moral, Francisco J.; Rebollo, Francisco J.; Paniagua, Luis L.; García, Abelardo; Honorio, Fulgencio

    2016-05-01

    Different climatic indices have been proposed to determine the wine suitability in a region. Some of them are related to the air temperature, but the hydric component of climate should also be considered which, in turn, is influenced by the precipitation during the different stages of the grapevine growing and ripening periods. In this study, we propose using the information obtained from ten climatic indices [heliothermal index (HI), cool night index (CI), dryness index (DI), growing season temperature (GST), the Winkler index (WI), September mean thermal amplitude (MTA), annual precipitation (AP), precipitation during flowering (PDF), precipitation before flowering (PBF), and summer precipitation (SP)] as inputs in an objective and probabilistic model, the Rasch model, with the aim of integrating the individual effects of them, obtaining the climate data that summarize all main climatic indices, which could influence on wine suitability from a climate viewpoint, and utilizing the Rasch measures to generate homogeneous climatic zones. The use of the Rasch model to estimate viticultural climatic suitability constitutes a new application of great practical importance, enabling to rationally determine locations in a region where high viticultural potential exists and establishing a ranking of the climatic indices which exerts an important influence on wine suitability in a region. Furthermore, from the measures of viticultural climatic suitability at some locations, estimates can be computed using a geostatistical algorithm, and these estimates can be utilized to map viticultural climatic zones in a region. To illustrate the process, an application to Extremadura, southwestern Spain, is shown.

  16. Air quality extremes and trends over the United States: Effects of regional climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Y.; Song, Y.; Loadholt, J.; Zhang, H.; Park, T.; Deng, Y.; Zhang, Y.

    2014-12-01

    We apply a suite of analysis methods, including statistical distribution and correlation, empirical orthogonal function (EOF), linear inverse modeling (LIM), and historical modeling using regional air quality and global chemistry-climate models, to analyze surface ozone (since 1980) and PM2.5 (since 2000) measurements from EPA observation networks. The overarching goal is to understand how regional climate and weather systems affect air quality trends and extreme events. Previous studies documented high or geographically specific ozone episodes and identified contributions from anticyclone, transport, or sub-decadal to decadal time scale patterns pertinent to the events. Here, an ensemble analysis of all events from single day to multi-day episodes in the past three decades places all episodes into a continuum of time and geospatial coordinates. Inter-annual patterns linked to source concentrations and seasonal transport are evident, but anomalies such as unseasonable and persistent anticyclones to winter events over snow cover can also be identified. Overlapping events between ozone and temperature extremes are identified. They tend to occur in eastern and western coast regions with significant local variability. The occurrence frequency of overlapping events decreased from 1980s to 2000s. PM2.5 extreme showed more sensitivity to extreme temperature than drought index. When being divided by two periods (2000-2004 and 2005-2009), the second period had more extreme PM events at lower temperature in winter time. An EOF analysis was conducted to examine how regional and hemispheric climate variability affects the ozone extreme events. A question explored here is how well EOF analysis that links ozone concentrations to climate variables explains the temporal and geospatial variability of extreme ozone events (days and episodes >= 75 ppbv). The seasonal change in controlling weather systems plays a key role in how regional climate affects air quality. We also show the

  17. Tackling regional climate change by leaf albedo bio-geoengineering.

    PubMed

    Ridgwell, Andy; Singarayer, Joy S; Hetherington, Alistair M; Valdes, Paul J

    2009-01-27

    The likelihood that continuing greenhouse-gas emissions will lead to an unmanageable degree of climate change has stimulated the search for planetary-scale technological solutions for reducing global warming ("geoengineering"), typically characterized by the necessity for costly new infrastructures and industries. We suggest that the existing global infrastructure associated with arable agriculture can help, given that crop plants exert an important influence over the climatic energy budget because of differences in their albedo (solar reflectivity) compared to soils and to natural vegetation. Specifically, we propose a "bio-geoengineering" approach to mitigate surface warming, in which crop varieties having specific leaf glossiness and/or canopy morphological traits are specifically chosen to maximize solar reflectivity. We quantify this by modifying the canopy albedo of vegetation in prescribed cropland areas in a global-climate model, and thereby estimate the near-term potential for bio-geoengineering to be a summertime cooling of more than 1 degrees C throughout much of central North America and midlatitude Eurasia, equivalent to seasonally offsetting approximately one-fifth of regional warming due to doubling of atmospheric CO(2). Ultimately, genetic modification of plant leaf waxes or canopy structure could achieve greater temperature reductions, although better characterization of existing intraspecies variability is needed first.

  18. Climate change: evaluating your local and regional water resources

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Thorne, James H.

    2015-01-01

    The BCM is a fine-scale hydrologic model that uses detailed maps of soils, geology, topography, and transient monthly or daily maps of potential evapotranspiration, air temperature, and precipitation to generate maps of recharge, runoff, snow pack, actual evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit. With these comprehensive environmental inputs and experienced scientific analysis, the BCM provides resource managers with important hydrologic and ecologic understanding of a landscape or basin at hillslope to regional scales. The model is calibrated using historical climate and streamflow data over the range of geologic materials specific to an area. Once calibrated, the model is used to translate climate-change data into hydrologic responses for a defined landscape, to provide managers an understanding of potential ecological risks and threats to water supplies and managed hydrologic systems. Although limited to estimates of unimpaired hydrologic conditions, estimates of impaired conditions, such as agricultural demand, diversions, or reservoir outflows can be incorporated into the calibration of the model to expand its utility. Additionally, the model can be linked to other models, such as groundwater-flow models (that is, MODFLOW) or the integrated hydrologic model (MF-FMP), to provide information about subsurface hydrologic processes. The model can be applied at a relatively small scale, but also can be applied to large-scale national and international river basins.

  19. Climate variability and wine quality over Portuguese regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gouveia, Célia M.; Gani, Érico A.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.

    2015-04-01

    The relationship between the characteristics of wine and its geographic origin is frequently used to explain the hierarchy of high-quality wines. Port wine is produced from grapes grown in selected areas of the Douro valley, in Portugal, the so-called Região Demarcada do Douro, the first wine-producing region of the world (dating from 1758). The Douro region presents distinctive climatic, topographic and soil characteristics. Moreover Portugal possesses a large array of native varietals, producing an abundant diversity of different wines. The most protected wines, produced only with some authorised grape varietals in the demarcated regions, are labelled D.O.C. (Denominação de Origem Controlada, similar to the French Appellation d'Origine Contrôlée (AOC)) which secures a superior wine quality. Recent warming trends in Portugal are associated with the significant increase in the frequency and duration of heat waves, and the increase in the frequency of hot days and tropical nights, especially in spring and summer, together with a significant decrease in the frequency of cold waves and frost days (Santo et al., 2014). Moreover a predominantly negative tendency in precipitation indices was also found (de Lima et al., 2014). These trends and associated changes in temperature and precipitation regimes may exert strong influences on agriculture systems. In this work we have performed an analysis of the distinct behaviour of several meteorological fields in vintage versus non-vintage years for Port Wine on one hand and Alentejo and Dão/Bairrada DOC regions on the other hand, during the period spanning from 1964-1995. The relative importance of maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and frost days is assessed for each individual month of the vegetative cycle and their importance to the wine quality is evaluated. Furthermore, composites of 500 hPa geopotential height and sea level pressure fields over the Euro Atlantic region are also compared for years

  20. High resolution modeling of the regional climate variability over the Southeast of Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Da Silva, L. A.; Gomes, J.; Lyra, A.; Chan, C. S.; Marengo, J.; Vieira, L. A.

    2012-12-01

    Global changes of climate can potentially affect densely populated regions in the southeast of Brazil. These changes can arise from the variability of drivers such as solar, volcanic, and anthropogenic activities, as well as complex responses related to cloud cover and ocean temperatures. However, the precise function of each driver is still a topic of debate. At regional scale, climate models have been employed to assess the evolution of the climatic parameters and to project future changes. However, high-resolution (5 km) estimates are needed to identify specific areas that are vulnerable to events that could result in heavy rains, flooding, and mudslides. Here we investigate the sensibility of the regional precipitation patterns estimated employing the regional model Eta to the several schemes of cloud microphysics and the Betts-Miller-Janjic convection parameterization. This version of the model Eta is based on schemes of refined slope for the vertical coordinate and non-hydrostatic dynamics. Following other authors, the region model is embedded in the ERA-interim (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts-ECMWF) reanalysis. The model free parameters are determined by minimizing the difference between models output and observations of the precipitation variability associated to the passage of could fronts and the south Atlantic Convergence Zone from 2000 to 2010. Additionally, the limitations of the model to assess regional effects of climate change and future strategies to increase its precision are discussed. This work is supported by FAPESP under the grant agreement nos. 2008/58161-1 (PFPMCG - Projeto Temático) and 2011/13976-0.

  1. Importance of ensembles in projecting regional climate trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arritt, Raymond; Daniel, Ariele; Groisman, Pavel

    2016-04-01

    We have performed an ensemble of simulations using RegCM4 to examine the ability to reproduce observed trends in precipitation intensity and to project future changes through the 21st century for the central United States. We created a matrix of simulations over the CORDEX North America domain for 1950-2099 by driving the regional model with two different global models (HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M, both for RCP8.5), by performing simulations at both 50 km and 25 km grid spacing, and by using three different convective parameterizations. The result is a set of 12 simulations (two GCMs by two resolutions by three convective parameterizations) that can be used to systematically evaluate the influence of simulation design on predicted precipitation. The two global models were selected to bracket the range of climate sensitivity in the CMIP5 models: HadGEM2-ES has the highest ECS of the CMIP5 models, while GFDL-ESM2M has one of the lowestt. Our evaluation metrics differ from many other RCM studies in that we focus on the skill of the models in reproducing past trends rather than the mean climate state. Trends in frequency of extreme precipitation (defined as amounts exceeding 76.2 mm/day) for most simulations are similar to the observed trend but with notable variations depending on RegCM4 configuration and on the driving GCM. There are complex interactions among resolution, choice of convective parameterization, and the driving GCM that carry over into the future climate projections. We also note that biases in the current climate do not correspond to biases in trends. As an example of these points the Emanuel scheme is consistently "wet" (positive bias in precipitation) yet it produced the smallest precipitation increase of the three convective parameterizations when used in simulations driven by HadGEM2-ES. However, it produced the largest increase when driven by GFDL-ESM2M. These findings reiterate that ensembles using multiple RCM configurations and driving GCMs are

  2. Regional impacts of Atlantic Forest deforestation on climate and vegetation dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holm, J. A.; Chambers, J. Q.

    2012-12-01

    effects, regional surface air temperature (C°), precipitation (mm day-1), and emitted longwave radiation (W m-2) were highly affected in the location of the removed forest, and throughout surrounding areas of South America. For example climate patterns of increased temperature and decreased precipitation were affected as far as the Amazon Forest region. The use of fully coupled global climate and terrestrial models to study the effects of large-scale forest removal have been rarely applied. This study successfully showed the valuation of an important tropical forest, and the consequences of large deforestation through the reporting of complex earth-atmosphere interactions between vegetation dynamics and climate.

  3. Regional Climate Modeling of West African Summer Monsoon Climate: Impact of Historical Boundary Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kebe, I.

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we analyze and intercompare the performance of an ensemble of three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) driven by three set of Global Climate Models (GCMs), in reproducing seasonal mean climatologies with their annual cycle and the key features of West African summer monsoon over 20 years period (1985-2004) during the present day. The results show that errors in lateral boundary conditions from the GCM members, have an unexpected way on the skill of the RCMs in reproducing regional climate features such as the West African Monsoon features and the annual cycle of precipitation and temperature in terms of outperforming the GCM simulation. It also shows the occurrence of the West African Monsoon jump, the intensification and northward shift of the Saharan Heat Low (SHL) as expressed in some RCMs than the GCMs. Most RCMs also capture the mean annual cycle of precipitation and temperature, including, single and double-peaked during the summer months, in terms of events and amplitude. In a series of RCMs and GCMs experiments between the Sahara region and equatorial Africa, the presence of strong positive meridional temperature gradients at the surface and a strong meridional gradients in the potential temperatures near the surface are obvious, indicating the region of strong vertical shear development enough to establish easterly flow such as the African easterly jet. In addition, the isentropic potential vorticity (IPV) gradient decreases northward in the lower troposphere across northern Africa, with the maximum reversal on the 315-K surface. The region with negative IPV gradient favors the potential instability which has been associated with the growth of easterly waves.

  4. Mid-Century Ensemble Regional Climate Change Scenarios for the Western United States

    SciTech Connect

    Leung, Lai R.; Qian, Yun; Bian, Xindi; Washington, Warren M.; Han, Jongil; Roads, John O.

    2004-01-01

    To study the impacts of climate change on water resources in the western U.S., global climate simulations were produced using the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Department of Energy (NCAR/DOE) Parallel Climate Model (PCM). The Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) was used to downscale the PCM control (1995-2015) and three future (2040-2060) climate simulations to yield ensemble regional climate simulations at 40 km spatial resolution for the western U.S. This paper focuses on analyses of regional simulations in the Columbia River and Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basins. Results based on the regional simulations show that by mid-century, the average regional warming of 1-2.5oC strongly affects snowpack in the western U.S. Along coastal mountains, reduction in annual snowpack is about 70%. Besides changes in mean temperature, precipitation, and snowpack, cold season extreme daily precipitation is found to increase by 5 to 15 mm/day (15-20%) along the Cascades and the Sierra. The warming results in increased rainfall over snowfall and reduced snow accumulation (or earlier snowmelt) during the cold season. In the Columbia River Basin, these changes are accompanied by more frequent rain-on-snow events. Overall, they induce higher likelihood of wintertime flooding and reduced runoff and soil moisture in the summer. Such changes could have serious impacts on water resources and agriculture in the western U.S. Changes in surface water and energy budgets in the Columbia River and Sacramento-San Joaquin basins are driven mainly by changes in surface temperature, which are statistically significant at the 0.95 confidence level. Changes in precipitation, however, are spatially incoherent and not statistically significant except for the drying trend during summer.

  5. Projected changes in climate extremes over Qatar and the Arabian Gulf region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kundeti, K.; Kanikicharla, K. K.; Al sulaiti, M.; Khulaifi, M.; Alboinin, N.; Kito, A.

    2015-12-01

    The climate of the State of Qatar and the adjacent region is dominated by subtropical dry, hot desert climate with low annual rainfall, very high temperatures in summer and a big difference between maximum and minimum temperatures, especially in the inland areas. The coastal areas are influenced by the Arabian Gulf, and have lower maximum, but higher minimum temperatures and a higher moisture percentage in the air. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over the Arabian Peninsula that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. Therefore, it is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal/annual mean of temperature and precipitation and also the extremes in temperature and wind events for a country like Qatar. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in climate extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCPs (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyzed the projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes using several indices including those that capture heat stress. The observations show an increase in warm extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of both temperature and precipitation extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on human health, water resources and the onshore/offshore infrastructure in this region. Data from a high-resolution (20km) AGCM simulation from Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency for the present (1979-2003) and a future time slice (2075-2099) corresponding to RCP8.5 have also been utilized to assess the impact of climate change on

  6. On the Validation of ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Simulations in Terms of Reproducing Annual Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halenka, T.; Skalak, P.; Huszar, P.; Belda, M.

    2009-09-01

    There are many aspects of the validation of climate models. In addition to standard statistical characteristics a more in-depth analysis of annual cycle performance can provide more information on ability of the models to reproduce properly the physical processes which strongly affect the behavior of climate parameters during the year. Global Circulation Models (GCMs) can reproduce climate features on large scales, but their accuracy decreases when proceeding from continental to regional and local scales because of the lack of resolution and thus on the regional scale they are very often rather poor in reproducing the annual cycle. The more detail analysis of 15 RCMs used in EC FP6 IP ENSEMBLES in ERA 40 driven experiment on 25 km resolution for the period of 1961-2000 in different PRUDENCE regions presents the comparison of the models and their validation in terms of annual cycle reproduction. While for the temperature the performance of the models is mostly very good and quite consistent, there are some models with rather significant problems in some regions in reproducing annual cycle of precipitation.

  7. Assessing Impact of Aerosol Intercontinental Transport on Regional Air Quality and Climate: What Satellites Can Help

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yu, Hongbin

    2011-01-01

    Mounting evidence for intercontinental transport of aerosols suggests that aerosols from a region could significantly affect climate and air quality in downwind regions and continents. Current assessment of these impacts for the most part has been based on global model simulations that show large variability. The aerosol intercontinental transport and its influence on air quality and climate involve many processes at local, regional, and intercontinental scales. There is a pressing need to establish modeling systems that bridge the wide range of scales. The modeling systems need to be evaluated and constrained by observations, including satellite measurements. Columnar loadings of dust and combustion aerosols can be derived from the MODIS and MISR measurements of total aerosol optical depth and particle size and shape information. Characteristic transport heights of dust and combustion aerosols can be determined from the CALIPSO lidar and AIRS measurements. CALIPSO liar and OMI UV technique also have a unique capability of detecting aerosols above clouds, which could offer some insights into aerosol lofting processes and the importance of above-cloud transport pathway. In this presentation, I will discuss our efforts of integrating these satellite measurements and models to assess the significance of intercontinental transport of dust and combustion aerosols on regional air quality and climate.

  8. Development of ALARO-Climate regional climate model for a very high resolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skalak, Petr; Farda, Ales; Brozkova, Radmila; Masek, Jan

    2014-05-01

    ALARO-Climate is a new regional climate model (RCM) derived from the ALADIN LAM model family. It is based on the numerical weather prediction model ALARO and developed at the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. The model is expected to able to work in the so called "grey zone" physics (horizontal resolution of 4 - 7 km) and at the same time retain its ability to be operated in resolutions in between 20 and 50 km, which are typical for contemporary generation of regional climate models. Here we present the main results of the RCM ALARO-Climate model simulations in 25 and 6.25 km resolutions on the longer time-scale (1961-1990). The model was driven by the ERA-40 re-analyses and run on the integration domain of ~ 2500 x 2500 km size covering the central Europe. The simulated model climate was compared with the gridded observation of air temperature (mean, maximum, minimum) and precipitation from the E-OBS version dataset 8. Other simulated parameters (e.g., cloudiness, radiation or components of water cycle) were compared to the ERA-40 re-analyses. The validation of the first ERA-40 simulation in both, 25 km and 6.25 km resolutions, revealed significant cold biases in all seasons and overestimation of precipitation in the selected Central Europe target area (0° - 30° eastern longitude ; 40° - 60° northern latitude). The differences between these simulations were small and thus revealed a robustness of the model's physical parameterization on the resolution change. The series of 25 km resolution simulations with several model adaptations was carried out to study their effect on the simulated properties of climate variables and thus possibly identify a source of major errors in the simulated climate. The current investigation suggests the main reason for biases is related to the model physic. Acknowledgements: This study was performed within the frame of projects ALARO (project P209/11/2405 sponsored by the Czech Science Foundation) and CzechGlobe Centre (CZ.1

  9. Evaluating regional vulnerability to climate change: purposes and methods

    SciTech Connect

    Malone, Elizabeth L.; Engle, Nathan L.

    2011-03-15

    As the emphasis in climate change research, international negotiations, and developing-country activities has shifted from mitigation to adaptation, vulnerability has emerged as a bridge between impacts on one side and the need for adaptive changes on the other. Still, the term vulnerability remains abstract, its meaning changing with the scale, focus, and purpose of each assessment. Understanding regional vulnerability has advanced over the past several decades, with studies using a combination of indicators, case studies and analogues, stakeholder-driven processes, and scenario-building methodologies. As regions become increasingly relevant scales of inquiry for bridging the aggregate and local, for every analysis, it is perhaps most appropriate to ask three “what” questions: “What/who is vulnerable?,” “What is vulnerability?,” and “Vulnerable to what?” The answers to these questions will yield different definitions of vulnerability as well as different methods for assessing it.

  10. Regional-scale simulations of the western US climate

    SciTech Connect

    Bossert, J.E.; Kao, C.Y.J.; Winterkamp, J.; Roads, J.O.; Chen, S.C.; Ueyoshi, K. |

    1991-12-31

    Over the past two decades the meteorological community has witnessed the evolution of general circulation models (GCMs) from studies attempting to simulate realistic large-scale dynamical regimes and energy transports to present investigations examining future climate change scenarios. From these pioneering studies, we were inspired to begin to develop regional climatologies with the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CSU-RAMS). Our major goal is to develop a better understanding of the hydrologic cycle in the mountainous, and west. An advantage of using the RAMS code is that we can generate detailed descriptions of precipitation processes, which will hopefully translate into realistic surface yields of both rain and snow. In the ensuing sections, we first describe the model and its microphysics parameterizations, then continue with our methodology for incorporating large-scale data into the model grid. Preliminary results demonstrating the mesoscale variation of precipitation over the mountainous western US are then presented.

  11. Physical processes mediating climate change impacts on regional sea ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holt, J.; Schrum, C.; Cannaby, H.; Daewel, U.; Allen, I.; Artioli, Y.; Bopp, L.; Butenschon, M.; Fach, B. A.; Harle, J.; Pushpadas, D.; Salihoglu, B.; Wakelin, S.

    2014-02-01

    Regional seas are exceptionally vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas' ecosystems. In this paper we explore these physical processes and their biophysical interactions, and the effects of atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial change on them. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within regional seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts: on long term changes in elemental budgets, on seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton's exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly on direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional models systems using ECOSMO, POLCOMS-ERSEM and BIMS_ECO. These cover the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and a region of the Northeast Atlantic, using a common global ocean-atmosphere model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and a more detailed analysis of the POLCOMS-ERSEM model. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from the varying mixing and circulation conditions. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas (Black and Baltic Seas) the

  12. Regional air quality management aspects of climate change: impact of climate mitigation options on regional air emissions.

    PubMed

    Rudokas, Jason; Miller, Paul J; Trail, Marcus A; Russell, Armistead G

    2015-04-21

    We investigate the projected impact of six climate mitigation scenarios on U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOX) associated with energy use in major sectors of the U.S. economy (commercial, residential, industrial, electricity generation, and transportation). We use the EPA U.S. 9-region national database with the MARKet Allocation energy system model to project emissions changes over the 2005 to 2050 time frame. The modeled scenarios are two carbon tax, two low carbon transportation, and two biomass fuel choice scenarios. In the lower carbon tax and both biomass fuel choice scenarios, SO2 and NOX achieve reductions largely through pre-existing rules and policies, with only relatively modest additional changes occurring from the climate mitigation measures. The higher carbon tax scenario projects greater declines in CO2 and SO2 relative to the 2050 reference case, but electricity sector NOX increases. This is a result of reduced investments in power plant NOX controls in earlier years in anticipation of accelerated coal power plant retirements, energy penalties associated with carbon capture systems, and shifting of NOX emissions in later years from power plants subject to a regional NOX cap to those in regions not subject to the cap. PMID:25803240

  13. Regional air quality management aspects of climate change: impact of climate mitigation options on regional air emissions.

    PubMed

    Rudokas, Jason; Miller, Paul J; Trail, Marcus A; Russell, Armistead G

    2015-04-21

    We investigate the projected impact of six climate mitigation scenarios on U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOX) associated with energy use in major sectors of the U.S. economy (commercial, residential, industrial, electricity generation, and transportation). We use the EPA U.S. 9-region national database with the MARKet Allocation energy system model to project emissions changes over the 2005 to 2050 time frame. The modeled scenarios are two carbon tax, two low carbon transportation, and two biomass fuel choice scenarios. In the lower carbon tax and both biomass fuel choice scenarios, SO2 and NOX achieve reductions largely through pre-existing rules and policies, with only relatively modest additional changes occurring from the climate mitigation measures. The higher carbon tax scenario projects greater declines in CO2 and SO2 relative to the 2050 reference case, but electricity sector NOX increases. This is a result of reduced investments in power plant NOX controls in earlier years in anticipation of accelerated coal power plant retirements, energy penalties associated with carbon capture systems, and shifting of NOX emissions in later years from power plants subject to a regional NOX cap to those in regions not subject to the cap.

  14. Application of regional climate data as input for hydrological modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sennikovs, J.; Timuhins, A.

    2009-04-01

    The goal of this study was to check the suitability of application of regional climate model (RCM) forcing data for hydrological modelling. The spatially distributed finite volume based hydrological model was set-up for the pilot basin in central Latvia (river Aiviekste, catchment area 9300 sq.km). The primary forcing input for the model consists of the time-series of temperature and precipitation. We considered set of 21 RCM model output data from the PRUDENCE project. They were statisically tested against temperature and precipitation observations for the reference period (1961-1990). The best performing RCM was selected according to penalty function constructed based on monthly average temperature, precipitation and montly standard deviation of temperature and precipitation. The calibrated hydrological model was employed for the run-off calculations of climatic reference period (1961-1990). The first step of the study was to statistically compare (1) observed discharge, (2) modelled discharge using observed temperature and precipitation as the forcing, (3) modelled discharge using the temperature and precipitation time series from the best RCM as the forcing. The monthly average observed discharge agrees well with the modelled discharge in case of usage of the observed forcing. The agreement of observed discharge with modelled discharge using RCM data is rather disappointing, especially during winter and spring snow melt flood periods. Usage of the meteorological forcing from the RCM's reference period overestimates yearly average discharge by approximately 70%. The second step of our study was to modify and use the modified RCM data as an input for hydrological modelling. The modification method relies on equalizing of temperature and precipitation histograms between observed and RCM data for each day of the year and each observation location. We show that monthly average discharges agree quite well with observed in the case of use of modified RCM data as a

  15. Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography.

    PubMed

    Bost, Charles A; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2015-10-27

    Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

  16. Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography

    PubMed Central

    Bost, Charles A.; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2015-01-01

    Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes. PMID:26506134

  17. Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bost, Charles A.; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2015-10-01

    Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

  18. Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography.

    PubMed

    Bost, Charles A; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2015-01-01

    Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes. PMID:26506134

  19. Statistical Downscaling Of Local Climate In The Alpine Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaspar, Severin; Philipp, Andreas; Jacobeit, Jucundus

    2016-04-01

    The impact of climate change on the alpine region was disproportional strong in the past decades compared to the surrounding areas, which becomes manifest in a higher increase in surface air temperature. Beside the thermal changes also implications for the hydrological cycle may be expected, acting as a very important factor not only for the ecosystem but also for mankind, in the form of water security or considering economical aspects like winter tourism etc. Therefore, in climate impact studies, it is necessary to focus on variables with high influence on the hydrological cycle, for example temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity and radiation. The aim of this study is to build statistical downscaling models which are able to reproduce temperature and precipitation at the mountainous alpine weather stations Zugspitze and Sonnblick and to further project these models into the future to identify possible changes in the behavior of these climate variables and with that in the hydrological cycle. Beside facing a in general very complex terrain in this high elevated regions, we have the advantage of a more direct atmospheric influence on the meteorology of the exposed weather stations from the large scale circulation. Two nonlinear statistical methods are developed to model the station-data series on a daily basis: On the one hand a conditional classification approach was used and on the other hand a model based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) was built. The latter is in focus of this presentation. One of the important steps of developing a new model approach is to find a reliable predictor setup with e.g. informative predictor variables or adequate location and size of the spatial domain. The question is: Can we include synoptic background knowledge to identify an optimal domain for an ANN approach? The yet developed ANN setups and configurations show promising results in downscaling both, temperature (up to 80 % of explained variance) and precipitation (up

  20. Climatic Consequences and Agricultural Impact of Regional Nuclear Conflict

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robock, Alan; Mills, Michael; Toon, Owen Brian; Xia, Lili

    2013-04-01

    A nuclear war between India and Pakistan, with each country using 50 Hiroshima-sized atom bombs as airbursts on urban areas, would inject smoke from the resulting fires into the stratosphere. This could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and global-scale ozone depletion, with enhanced ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the surface. Simulations with the NCAR Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), run at higher vertical and horizontal resolution than a previous simulation with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE, and incorporating ozone chemistry for the first time, show a longer stratospheric residence time for smoke and hence a longer-lasting climate response, with global average surface air temperatures still 1.1 K below normal and global average precipitation 4% below normal after a decade. The erythemal dose from the enhanced UV radiation would greatly increase, in spite of enhanced absorption by the remaining smoke, with the UV index more than 3 units higher in the summer midlatitudes, even after a decade. Scenarios of changes in temperature, precipitation, and downward shortwave radiation from the ModelE and WACCM simulations, applied to the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model for winter wheat, rice, soybeans, and maize by perturbing observed time series with anomalies from the regional nuclear war simulations, produce decreases of 10-50% in yield averaged over a decade, with larger decreases in the first several years, over several regions in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The impact of the nuclear war simulated here, using much less than 1% of the global nuclear arsenal, would be devastating to world agricultural production and trade, possibly sentencing a billion people now living marginal existences to starvation. The continued environmental threat of the use of even a small number of nuclear weapons must be considered in nuclear policy deliberations in Russia

  1. Assessing climate change impacts on the rape stem weevil, Ceutorhynchus napi Gyll., based on bias- and non-bias-corrected regional climate change projections.

    PubMed

    Junk, J; Ulber, B; Vidal, S; Eickermann, M

    2015-11-01

    Agricultural production is directly affected by projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation. A multi-model ensemble of regional climate change projections indicated shifts towards higher air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns during the summer and winter seasons up to the year 2100 for the region of Goettingen (Lower Saxony, Germany). A second major controlling factor of the agricultural production is the infestation level by pests. Based on long-term field surveys and meteorological observations, a calibration of an existing model describing the migration of the pest insect Ceutorhynchus napi was possible. To assess the impacts of climate on pests under projected changing environmental conditions, we combined the results of regional climate models with the phenological model to describe the crop invasion of this species. In order to reduce systematic differences between the output of the regional climate models and observational data sets, two different bias correction methods were applied: a linear correction for air temperature and a quantile mapping approach for precipitation. Only the results derived from the bias-corrected output of the regional climate models showed satisfying results. An earlier onset, as well as a prolongation of the possible time window for the immigration of Ceutorhynchus napi, was projected by the majority of the ensemble members.

  2. Assessing climate change impacts on the rape stem weevil, Ceutorhynchus napi Gyll., based on bias- and non-bias-corrected regional climate change projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Junk, J.; Ulber, B.; Vidal, S.; Eickermann, M.

    2015-11-01

    Agricultural production is directly affected by projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation. A multi-model ensemble of regional climate change projections indicated shifts towards higher air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns during the summer and winter seasons up to the year 2100 for the region of Goettingen (Lower Saxony, Germany). A second major controlling factor of the agricultural production is the infestation level by pests. Based on long-term field surveys and meteorological observations, a calibration of an existing model describing the migration of the pest insect Ceutorhynchus napi was possible. To assess the impacts of climate on pests under projected changing environmental conditions, we combined the results of regional climate models with the phenological model to describe the crop invasion of this species. In order to reduce systematic differences between the output of the regional climate models and observational data sets, two different bias correction methods were applied: a linear correction for air temperature and a quantile mapping approach for precipitation. Only the results derived from the bias-corrected output of the regional climate models showed satisfying results. An earlier onset, as well as a prolongation of the possible time window for the immigration of Ceutorhynchus napi, was projected by the majority of the ensemble members.

  3. Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jury, Mark R.; Funk, Christopher C.

    2013-01-01

    This study analyses observed and projected climatic trends over Ethiopia, through analysis of temperature and rainfall records and related meteorological fields. The observed datasets include gridded station records and reanalysis products; while projected trends are analysed from coupled model simulations drawn from the IPCC 4th Assessment. Upward trends in air temperature of + 0.03 °C year−1 and downward trends in rainfall of − 0.4 mm month−1 year−1 have been observed over Ethiopia's southwestern region in the period 1948-2006. These trends are projected to continue to 2050 according to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab model using the A1B scenario. Large scale forcing derives from the West Indian Ocean where significant warming and increased rainfall are found. Anticyclonic circulations have strengthened over northern and southern Africa, limiting moisture transport from the Gulf of Guinea and Congo. Changes in the regional Walker and Hadley circulations modulate the observed and projected climatic trends. Comparing past and future patterns, the key features spread westward from Ethiopia across the Sahel and serve as an early warning of potential impacts.

  4. Hydrological response to changing climate conditions: Spatial streamflow variability in the boreal region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teutschbein, Claudia; Grabs, Thomas; Karlsen, Reinert H.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Bishop, Kevin

    2016-04-01

    It has long been recognized that streamflow-generating processes are not only dependent on climatic conditions, but also affected by physical catchment properties such as topography, geology, soils and land cover. We hypothesize that these landscape characteristics do not only lead to highly variable hydrologic behavior of rather similar catchments under the same stationary climate conditions (Karlsen et al., 2014), but that they also play a fundamental role for the sensitivity of a catchment to a changing climate (Teutschbein et al., 2015). A multi-model ensemble based on 15 regional climate models was combined with a multi-catchment approach to explore the hydrologic sensitivity of 14 partially nested and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden to changing climate conditions and the importance of small-scale spatial variability. Current (1981-2010) and future (2061-2090) streamflow was simulated with the HBV model. As expected, projected increases in temperature and precipitation resulted in increased total available streamflow, with lower spring and summer flows, but substantially higher winter streamflow. Furthermore, significant changes in flow durations with lower chances of both high and low flows can be expected in boreal Sweden in the future. This overall trend in projected streamflow pattern changes was comparable among the analyzed catchments while the magnitude of change differed considerably. This suggests that catchments belonging to the same region can show distinctly different degrees of hydrological responses to the same external climate change signal. We reason that differences in spatially distributed physical catchment properties at smaller scales are not only of great importance for current streamflow behavior, but also play a major role as first-order control for the sensitivity of catchments to changing climate conditions. References Karlsen, R.H., T. Grabs, K. Bishop, H. Laudon, and J. Seibert (2014). Landscape controls on

  5. Regional Climate Modeling of Volcanic Eruptions and the Arctic Climate System: A Baffin Island Case Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Losic, M.; Robock, A.

    2010-12-01

    It is well-understood that the effects of volcanic aerosol loading into the stratosphere are transient, with global cooling lasting only a few years after a single large eruption. Geological evidence collected from Northern Baffin Island, Canada, suggests ice cap growth began soon after a succession of several large eruptions in the 13th century, and they did not start to melt until roughly a century ago. We investigate which feedbacks allowed these ice caps to be maintained long after the transient forcing of the volcanic aerosols, by conducting sensitivity studies with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Polar WRF, a version of WRF developed specifically for the polar regions. Results from an ensemble of month-long regional simulations over Baffin Island suggest that better treatment of snow and ice in Polar WRF improves our regional climate simulations. Thus, sensitivity test results from decade-long runs with imposed changes to boundary condition temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations using Polar WRF are presented. Preliminary findings suggest that not only large scale but localized climate feedbacks play an important role in the responses of the ice caps after temperature and carbon dioxide forcings are applied. The results from these and further sensitivity tests will provide insight into the influence of regional feedbacks on the persistence of these ice caps long after the 13th century eruptions.

  6. Effects of changes in climate on landscape and regional processes, and feedbacks to the climate system.

    PubMed

    Callaghan, Terry V; Björn, Lars Olof; Chernov, Yuri; Chapin, Terry; Christensen, Torben R; Huntley, Brian; Ims, Rolf A; Johansson, Margareta; Jolly, Dyanna; Jonasson, Sven; Matveyeva, Nadya; Panikov, Nicolai; Oechel, Walter; Shaver, Gus; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Sitch, Stephen

    2004-11-01

    Biological and physical processes in the Arctic system operate at various temporal and spatial scales to impact large-scale feedbacks and interactions with the earth system. There are four main potential feedback mechanisms between the impacts of climate change on the Arctic and the global climate system: albedo, greenhouse gas emissions or uptake by ecosystems, greenhouse gas emissions from methane hydrates, and increased freshwater fluxes that could affect the thermohaline circulation. All these feedbacks are controlled to some extent by changes in ecosystem distribution and character and particularly by large-scale movement of vegetation zones. Indications from a few, full annual measurements of CO2 fluxes are that currently the source areas exceed sink areas in geographical distribution. The little available information on CH4 sources indicates that emissions at the landscape level are of great importance for the total greenhouse balance of the circumpolar North. Energy and water balances of Arctic landscapes are also important feedback mechanisms in a changing climate. Increasing density and spatial expansion of vegetation will cause a lowering of the albedo and more energy to be absorbed on the ground. This effect is likely to exceed the negative feedback of increased C sequestration in greater primary productivity resulting from the displacements of areas of polar desert by tundra, and areas of tundra by forest. The degradation of permafrost has complex consequences for trace gas dynamics. In areas of discontinuous permafrost, warming, will lead to a complete loss of the permafrost. Depending on local hydrological conditions this may in turn lead to a wetting or drying of the environment with subsequent implications for greenhouse gas fluxes. Overall, the complex interactions between processes contributing to feedbacks, variability over time and space in these processes, and insufficient data have generated considerable uncertainties in estimating the net

  7. Effects of changes in climate on landscape and regional processes, and feedbacks to the climate system.

    PubMed

    Callaghan, Terry V; Björn, Lars Olof; Chernov, Yuri; Chapin, Terry; Christensen, Torben R; Huntley, Brian; Ims, Rolf A; Johansson, Margareta; Jolly, Dyanna; Jonasson, Sven; Matveyeva, Nadya; Panikov, Nicolai; Oechel, Walter; Shaver, Gus; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Sitch, Stephen

    2004-11-01

    Biological and physical processes in the Arctic system operate at various temporal and spatial scales to impact large-scale feedbacks and interactions with the earth system. There are four main potential feedback mechanisms between the impacts of climate change on the Arctic and the global climate system: albedo, greenhouse gas emissions or uptake by ecosystems, greenhouse gas emissions from methane hydrates, and increased freshwater fluxes that could affect the thermohaline circulation. All these feedbacks are controlled to some extent by changes in ecosystem distribution and character and particularly by large-scale movement of vegetation zones. Indications from a few, full annual measurements of CO2 fluxes are that currently the source areas exceed sink areas in geographical distribution. The little available information on CH4 sources indicates that emissions at the landscape level are of great importance for the total greenhouse balance of the circumpolar North. Energy and water balances of Arctic landscapes are also important feedback mechanisms in a changing climate. Increasing density and spatial expansion of vegetation will cause a lowering of the albedo and more energy to be absorbed on the ground. This effect is likely to exceed the negative feedback of increased C sequestration in greater primary productivity resulting from the displacements of areas of polar desert by tundra, and areas of tundra by forest. The degradation of permafrost has complex consequences for trace gas dynamics. In areas of discontinuous permafrost, warming, will lead to a complete loss of the permafrost. Depending on local hydrological conditions this may in turn lead to a wetting or drying of the environment with subsequent implications for greenhouse gas fluxes. Overall, the complex interactions between processes contributing to feedbacks, variability over time and space in these processes, and insufficient data have generated considerable uncertainties in estimating the net

  8. What Is a Mild Winter? Regional Differences in Within-Species Responses to Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Vetter, Sebastian G.; Ruf, Thomas; Bieber, Claudia; Arnold, Walter

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is known to affect ecosystems globally, but our knowledge of its impact on large and widespread mammals, and possibly population-specific responses is still sparse. We investigated large-scale and long-term effects of climate change on local population dynamics using the wild boar (Sus scrofa L.) as a model species. Our results show that population increases across Europe are strongly associated with increasingly mild winters, yet with region-specific threshold temperatures for the onset of exponential growth. Additionally, we found that abundant availability of critical food resources, e.g. beech nuts, can outweigh the negative effects of cold winters on population growth of wild boar. Availability of beech nuts is highly variable and highest in years of beech mast which increased in frequency since 1980, according to our data. We conclude that climate change drives population growth of wild boar directly by relaxing the negative effect of cold winters on survival and reproduction, and indirectly by increasing food availability. However, region-specific responses need to be considered in order to fully understand a species’ demographic response to climate change. PMID:26158846

  9. What Is a Mild Winter? Regional Differences in Within-Species Responses to Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Vetter, Sebastian G; Ruf, Thomas; Bieber, Claudia; Arnold, Walter

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is known to affect ecosystems globally, but our knowledge of its impact on large and widespread mammals, and possibly population-specific responses is still sparse. We investigated large-scale and long-term effects of climate change on local population dynamics using the wild boar (Sus scrofa L.) as a model species. Our results show that population increases across Europe are strongly associated with increasingly mild winters, yet with region-specific threshold temperatures for the onset of exponential growth. Additionally, we found that abundant availability of critical food resources, e.g. beech nuts, can outweigh the negative effects of cold winters on population growth of wild boar. Availability of beech nuts is highly variable and highest in years of beech mast which increased in frequency since 1980, according to our data. We conclude that climate change drives population growth of wild boar directly by relaxing the negative effect of cold winters on survival and reproduction, and indirectly by increasing food availability. However, region-specific responses need to be considered in order to fully understand a species' demographic response to climate change.

  10. What Is a Mild Winter? Regional Differences in Within-Species Responses to Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Vetter, Sebastian G; Ruf, Thomas; Bieber, Claudia; Arnold, Walter

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is known to affect ecosystems globally, but our knowledge of its impact on large and widespread mammals, and possibly population-specific responses is still sparse. We investigated large-scale and long-term effects of climate change on local population dynamics using the wild boar (Sus scrofa L.) as a model species. Our results show that population increases across Europe are strongly associated with increasingly mild winters, yet with region-specific threshold temperatures for the onset of exponential growth. Additionally, we found that abundant availability of critical food resources, e.g. beech nuts, can outweigh the negative effects of cold winters on population growth of wild boar. Availability of beech nuts is highly variable and highest in years of beech mast which increased in frequency since 1980, according to our data. We conclude that climate change drives population growth of wild boar directly by relaxing the negative effect of cold winters on survival and reproduction, and indirectly by increasing food availability. However, region-specific responses need to be considered in order to fully understand a species' demographic response to climate change. PMID:26158846

  11. Projected changes to high temperature events for Canada based on a regional climate model ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeong, Dae Il; Sushama, Laxmi; Diro, Gulilat Tefera; Khaliq, M. Naveed; Beltrami, Hugo; Caya, Daniel

    2016-05-01

    Extreme hot spells can have significant impacts on human society and ecosystems, and therefore it is important to assess how these extreme events will evolve in a changing climate. In this study, the impact of climate change on hot days, hot spells, and heat waves, over 10 climatic regions covering Canada, based on 11 regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program for the June to August summer period is presented. These simulations were produced with six RCMs driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM), for the A2 emission scenario, for the current 1970-1999 and future 2040-2069 periods. Two types of hot days, namely HD-1 and HD-2, defined respectively as days with only daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and both Tmax and daily minimum temperature (Tmin) exceeding their respective thresholds (i.e., period-of-record 90th percentile of Tmax and Tmin values), are considered in the study. Analogous to these hot days, two types of hot spells, namely HS-1 and HS-2, are identified as spells of consecutive HD-1 and HD-2 type hot days. In the study, heat waves are defined as periods of three or more consecutive days, with Tmax above 32 °C threshold. Results suggest future increases in the number of both types of hot days and hot spell events for the 10 climatic regions considered. However, the projected changes show high spatial variability and are highly dependent on the RCM and driving AOGCM combination. Extreme hot spell events such as HS-2 type hot spells of longer duration are expected to experience relatively larger increases compared to hot spells of moderate duration, implying considerable heat related environmental and health risks. Regionally, the Great Lakes, West Coast, Northern Plains, and Maritimes regions are found to be more affected due to increases in the frequency and severity of hot spells and/or heat wave characteristics, requiring more in depth studies for these regions

  12. Climate Impacts of Ozone and Sulfate Air Pollution from Specific Emissions Sectors and Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Unger, N.; Koch, D. M.; Shindell, D. T.; Streets, D. G.

    2006-12-01

    The secondary air pollutants ozone (O3) and sulfate aerosol are generated by human activities and affect the Earth's climate system. The global mean radiative forcings of these short-lived species depend on the location of the precursor gas emissions, which has so far prevented their incorporation into climate-motivated policy agreements. O3 and sulfate aerosol are strongly coupled through tropospheric photochemistry and yet air quality control efforts consider each species separately. Previous modeling work to assess climate impacts of O3 has focused on individual precursors, such as nitrogen oxides, even though policy action would target a particular sector. We use the G-PUCCINI atmospheric composition-climate model to isolate the O3 and sulfate direct radiative forcing impacts of 6 specific emissions sectors (industry, transport, power, domestic biofuel, domestic fossil fuel and biomass burning) from 7 geographic regions (North America, Europe, South Asia, East Asia, North Africa and the Middle East, Central and South Africa and South America) for the near future 2030 atmosphere. The goal of the study is to identify specific source sectors and regions that present the most effective opportunities to mitigate global warming. At 2030, the industry and power sectors dominate the sulfate forcing across all regions, with East Asia, South Asia and North Africa and Middle East contributing the largest sulfate forcings (-100 to 120 mWm-2). The transport sector represents an important O3 forcing from all regions ranging from 5 mWm-2 (Europe) to 12 mWm-2 (East Asia). Domestic biofuel O3 forcing is important for the East Asia (13 mWm-2), South Asia (7 mWm-2) and Central and South Africa (10 mWm-2) regions. Biomass burning contributes large O3 forcings for the Central and South Africa (15 mWm-2) and South America (11 mWm-2) regions. In addition, the power sector O3 forcings from East Asia (14 mWm-2) and South Asia (8 mWm-2) are also substantial. Considering the sum of the O

  13. EPA Region 10 Climate Change and TMDL Pilot - Project Research Plan

    EPA Science Inventory

    Global climate change affects the fundamental drivers of the hydrological cycle. Evidence is growing that climate change will have significant ramifications for the nation’s freshwater ecosystems, as deviations in atmospheric temperature and precipitation patterns are more ...

  14. Climate change impacts on risks of groundwater pollution by herbicides: a regional scale assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steffens, Karin; Moeys, Julien; Lindström, Bodil; Kreuger, Jenny; Lewan, Elisabet; Jarvis, Nick

    2014-05-01

    Groundwater contributes nearly half of the Swedish drinking water supply, which therefore needs to be protected both under present and future climate conditions. Pesticides are sometimes found in Swedish groundwater in concentrations exceeding the EU-drinking water limit and thus constitute a threat. The aim of this study was to assess the present and future risks of groundwater pollution at the regional scale by currently approved herbicides. We identified representative combinations of major crop types and their specific herbicide usage (product, dose and application timing) based on long-term monitoring data from two agricultural catchments in the South-West of Sweden. All these combinations were simulated with the regional version of the pesticide fate model MACRO (called MACRO-SE) for the periods 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 for a major crop production region in South West Sweden. To represent the uncertainty in future climate data, we applied a five-member ensemble based on different climate model projections downscaled with the RCA3-model (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute). In addition to the direct impacts of changes in the climate, the risks of herbicide leaching in the future will also be affected by likely changes in weed pressure and land use and management practices (e.g. changes in crop rotations and application timings). To assess the relative importance of such factors we performed a preliminary sensitivity analysis which provided us with a hierarchical structure for constructing future herbicide use scenarios for the regional scale model runs. The regional scale analysis gave average concentrations of herbicides leaching to groundwater for a large number of combinations of soils, crops and compounds. The results showed that future scenarios for herbicide use (more autumn-sown crops, more frequent multiple applications on one crop, and a shift from grassland to arable crops such as maize) imply significantly greater risks of herbicide

  15. Hell and High Water: Diminished Septic System Performance in Coastal Regions Due to Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Cooper, Jennifer A; Loomis, George W; Amador, Jose A

    2016-01-01

    Climate change may affect the ability of soil-based onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) to treat wastewater in coastal regions of the Northeastern United States. Higher temperatures and water tables can affect treatment by reducing the volume of unsaturated soil and oxygen available for treatment, which may result in greater transport of pathogens, nutrients, and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) to groundwater, jeopardizing public and aquatic ecosystem health. The soil treatment area (STA) of an OWTS removes contaminants as wastewater percolates through the soil. Conventional STAs receive wastewater from the septic tank, with infiltration occurring deeper in the soil profile. In contrast, shallow narrow STAs receive pre-treated wastewater that infiltrates higher in the soil profile, which may make them more resilient to climate change. We used intact soil mesocosms to quantify the water quality functions of a conventional and two types of shallow narrow STAs under present climate (PC; 20°C) and climate change (CC; 25°C, 30 cm elevation in water table). Significantly greater removal of BOD5 was observed under CC for all STA types. Phosphorus removal decreased significantly from 75% (PC) to 66% (CC) in the conventional STA, and from 100% to 71-72% in shallow narrow STAs. No fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) were released under PC, whereas up to 17 and 20 CFU 100 mL-1 were released in conventional and shallow narrow STAs, respectively, under CC. Total N removal increased from 14% (PC) to 19% (CC) in the conventional STA, but decreased in shallow narrow STAs, from 6-7% to less than 3.0%. Differences in removal of FCB and total N were not significant. Leaching of N in excess of inputs was also observed in shallow narrow STAs under CC. Our results indicate that climate change can affect contaminant removal from wastewater, with effects dependent on the contaminant and STA type.

  16. Hell and High Water: Diminished Septic System Performance in Coastal Regions Due to Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Cooper, Jennifer A.; Loomis, George W.; Amador, Jose A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change may affect the ability of soil-based onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) to treat wastewater in coastal regions of the Northeastern United States. Higher temperatures and water tables can affect treatment by reducing the volume of unsaturated soil and oxygen available for treatment, which may result in greater transport of pathogens, nutrients, and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) to groundwater, jeopardizing public and aquatic ecosystem health. The soil treatment area (STA) of an OWTS removes contaminants as wastewater percolates through the soil. Conventional STAs receive wastewater from the septic tank, with infiltration occurring deeper in the soil profile. In contrast, shallow narrow STAs receive pre-treated wastewater that infiltrates higher in the soil profile, which may make them more resilient to climate change. We used intact soil mesocosms to quantify the water quality functions of a conventional and two types of shallow narrow STAs under present climate (PC; 20°C) and climate change (CC; 25°C, 30 cm elevation in water table). Significantly greater removal of BOD5 was observed under CC for all STA types. Phosphorus removal decreased significantly from 75% (PC) to 66% (CC) in the conventional STA, and from 100% to 71–72% in shallow narrow STAs. No fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) were released under PC, whereas up to 17 and 20 CFU 100 mL-1 were released in conventional and shallow narrow STAs, respectively, under CC. Total N removal increased from 14% (PC) to 19% (CC) in the conventional STA, but decreased in shallow narrow STAs, from 6–7% to less than 3.0%. Differences in removal of FCB and total N were not significant. Leaching of N in excess of inputs was also observed in shallow narrow STAs under CC. Our results indicate that climate change can affect contaminant removal from wastewater, with effects dependent on the contaminant and STA type. PMID:27583363

  17. Hell and High Water: Diminished Septic System Performance in Coastal Regions Due to Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Cooper, Jennifer A; Loomis, George W; Amador, Jose A

    2016-01-01

    Climate change may affect the ability of soil-based onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) to treat wastewater in coastal regions of the Northeastern United States. Higher temperatures and water tables can affect treatment by reducing the volume of unsaturated soil and oxygen available for treatment, which may result in greater transport of pathogens, nutrients, and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) to groundwater, jeopardizing public and aquatic ecosystem health. The soil treatment area (STA) of an OWTS removes contaminants as wastewater percolates through the soil. Conventional STAs receive wastewater from the septic tank, with infiltration occurring deeper in the soil profile. In contrast, shallow narrow STAs receive pre-treated wastewater that infiltrates higher in the soil profile, which may make them more resilient to climate change. We used intact soil mesocosms to quantify the water quality functions of a conventional and two types of shallow narrow STAs under present climate (PC; 20°C) and climate change (CC; 25°C, 30 cm elevation in water table). Significantly greater removal of BOD5 was observed under CC for all STA types. Phosphorus removal decreased significantly from 75% (PC) to 66% (CC) in the conventional STA, and from 100% to 71-72% in shallow narrow STAs. No fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) were released under PC, whereas up to 17 and 20 CFU 100 mL-1 were released in conventional and shallow narrow STAs, respectively, under CC. Total N removal increased from 14% (PC) to 19% (CC) in the conventional STA, but decreased in shallow narrow STAs, from 6-7% to less than 3.0%. Differences in removal of FCB and total N were not significant. Leaching of N in excess of inputs was also observed in shallow narrow STAs under CC. Our results indicate that climate change can affect contaminant removal from wastewater, with effects dependent on the contaminant and STA type. PMID:27583363

  18. A climatological network for regional climate monitoring in Sardinia.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delitala, Alessandro M. S.

    2016-04-01

    In recent years the Region of Sardinia has been working to set-up a Regional Climatological Network of surface stations, in order to monitor climate (either stationary or changing) at sub-synoptic scale and in order to make robust climatological information available to researchers and to local stake-holders. In order to do that, an analysis of long climatological time series has been performed on the different historical networks of meteorological stations that existed over the past two centuries. A set of some hundreds of stations, with about a century of observations of daily precipitation, was identified. An important subset of them was also defined, having long series of observations of temperature, wind, pressure and other quantities. Specific investments were made on important stations sites where observations had been carried for decades, but where the climatological stations did not exist anymore. In the present talk, the Regional Climatological Network of Sardinia will be presented and its consistency discussed. Specific attention will be given to the most important climatological stations which have got more than a century of observations of meteorological quantities. Critical issues of the Regional Climatological Network, like relocation of stations and inhomogeneity of data due to instrumental changes or environmental modifications, will be discussed.

  19. Feature tracking in high-resolution regional climate data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massey, Neil R.

    2016-08-01

    In this paper, a suite of algorithms are presented which facilitate the identification and tracking of storm-indicative features, such as mean sea-level pressure minima, in high resolution regional climate data. The methods employ a hierarchical triangular mesh, which is tailored to the regional climate data by only subdividing triangles, from an initial icosahedron, within the domain of the data. The regional data is then regridded to this triangular mesh at each level of the grid, producing a compact representation of the data at numerous resolutions. Storm indicative features are detected by first subtracting the background field, represented by a low resolution version of the data, which occurs at a lower level in the mesh. Anomalies from this background field are detected, as feature objects, at a mesh level which corresponds to the spatial scale of the feature being detected and then refined to the highest mesh level. These feature objects are expanded to an outer contour and overlapping objects are merged. The centre points of these objects are tracked across timesteps by applying an optimisation scheme which uses five hierarchical rules. Objects are added to tracks based on the highest rule in the scheme they pass and, if two objects pass the same rule, the cost of adding the object to the track. An object exchange scheme ensures that adding an object to a track is locally optimal. An additional track optimisation phase is performed which exchanges segments between tracks and merges tracks to obtain a globally optimal track set. To validate the suite of algorithms they are applied to the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset and compared to other storm-indicative feature tracking algorithms.

  20. Climate change scenarios and key climate indices in the Swiss Alpine region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zubler, Elias; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa; Frei, Christoph; Liniger, Mark; Scherrer, Simon; Appenzeller, Christof

    2013-04-01

    For climate adaption and to support climate mitigation policy it is of outermost importance to demonstrate the consequences of climate change on a local level and in user oriented quantities. Here, a framework is presented to apply the Swiss national climate change scenarios CH2011 to climate indices with direct relevance to applications, such as tourism, transportation, agriculture and health. This framework provides results on a high spatial and temporal resolution and can also be applied in mountainous regions such as the Alps. Results are shown for some key indices, such as the number of summer days and tropical nights, growing season length, number of frost days, heating and cooling degree days, and the number of days with fresh snow. Particular focus is given to changes in the vertical distribution for the future periods 2020-2049, 2045-2074 and 2070-2099 relative to the reference period 1980-2009 for the A1B, A2 and RCP3PD scenario. The number of days with fresh snow is approximated using a combination of temperature and precipitation as proxies. Some findings for the latest scenario period are: (1) a doubling of the number of summer days by the end of the century under the business-as-usual scenario A2, (2) tropical nights appear above 1500 m asl, (3) the number of frost days may be reduced by more than 3 months at altitudes higher than 2500 m, (4) an overall reduction of heating degree days of about 30% by the end of the century, but on the other hand an increase in cooling degree days in warm seasons, and (5) the number of days with fresh snow tends to go towards zero at low altitudes. In winter, there is little change in snowfall above 2000 m asl (roughly -3 days) in all scenarios. The largest impact on snowfall is found along the Northern Alpine flank and the Jura (-10 days or roughly -50% in A1B for the winter season). It is also highlighted that the future projections for all indices strongly depend on the chosen scenario and on model uncertainty

  1. Surgical Care Required for Populations Affected by Climate-related Natural Disasters: A Global Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Eugenia E.; Stewart, Barclay; Zha, Yuanting A.; Groen, Thomas A.; Burkle, Frederick M.; Kushner, Adam L.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Climate extremes will increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters worldwide.  Climate-related natural disasters were anticipated to affect 375 million people in 2015, more than 50% greater than the yearly average in the previous decade. To inform surgical assistance preparedness, we estimated the number of surgical procedures needed.   Methods: The numbers of people affected by climate-related disasters from 2004 to 2014 were obtained from the Centre for Research of the Epidemiology of Disasters database. Using 5,000 procedures per 100,000 persons as the minimum, baseline estimates were calculated. A linear regression of the number of surgical procedures performed annually and the estimated number of surgical procedures required for climate-related natural disasters was performed. Results: Approximately 140 million people were affected by climate-related natural disasters annually requiring 7.0 million surgical procedures. The greatest need for surgical care was in the People’s Republic of China, India, and the Philippines. Linear regression demonstrated a poor relationship between national surgical capacity and estimated need for surgical care resulting from natural disaster, but countries with the least surgical capacity will have the greatest need for surgical care for persons affected by climate-related natural disasters. Conclusion: As climate extremes increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters, millions will need surgical care beyond baseline needs. Countries with insufficient surgical capacity will have the most need for surgical care for persons affected by climate-related natural disasters. Estimates of surgical are particularly important for countries least equipped to meet surgical care demands given critical human and physical resource deficiencies.

  2. Surgical Care Required for Populations Affected by Climate-related Natural Disasters: A Global Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Eugenia E.; Stewart, Barclay; Zha, Yuanting A.; Groen, Thomas A.; Burkle, Frederick M.; Kushner, Adam L.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Climate extremes will increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters worldwide.  Climate-related natural disasters were anticipated to affect 375 million people in 2015, more than 50% greater than the yearly average in the previous decade. To inform surgical assistance preparedness, we estimated the number of surgical procedures needed.   Methods: The numbers of people affected by climate-related disasters from 2004 to 2014 were obtained from the Centre for Research of the Epidemiology of Disasters database. Using 5,000 procedures per 100,000 persons as the minimum, baseline estimates were calculated. A linear regression of the number of surgical procedures performed annually and the estimated number of surgical procedures required for climate-related natural disasters was performed. Results: Approximately 140 million people were affected by climate-related natural disasters annually requiring 7.0 million surgical procedures. The greatest need for surgical care was in the People’s Republic of China, India, and the Philippines. Linear regression demonstrated a poor relationship between national surgical capacity and estimated need for surgical care resulting from natural disaster, but countries with the least surgical capacity will have the greatest need for surgical care for persons affected by climate-related natural disasters. Conclusion: As climate extremes increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters, millions will need surgical care beyond baseline needs. Countries with insufficient surgical capacity will have the most need for surgical care for persons affected by climate-related natural disasters. Estimates of surgical are particularly important for countries least equipped to meet surgical care demands given critical human and physical resource deficiencies. PMID:27617165

  3. Ethnomedicine use in the war affected region of northwest Pakistan

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background North-West of Pakistan is bestowed with medicinal plant resources due to diverse geographical and habitat conditions. The traditional use of plants for curing various diseases forms an important part of the region’s cultural heritage. The study was carried out to document medicinal plants used in Frontier Region (FR) Bannu, an area affected by the “War on Terror”. Methods Fieldwork was carried out in four different seasons (spring, autumn, summer and winter) from March 2012 to February 2013. Data on medicinal plants was collected using structured and semi-structured questionnaires from 250 respondents. The voucher specimens were collected, processed and identified following standard methods. Results Of the 107 species of ethnomedicinal plants reported, fifty percent species are herbaceous. The majority of the reported species were wild (55%) but a substantial proportion are cultivated (29%). For most of the plant species (34%), leaves are the most commonly used part in the preparation of ethnomedicines. The most common use of species is for carminative purposes (14 species), with the next most common use being for blood purification (11 species). The main methods used in the preparation of ethnomedicinal recipes involves grinding and boiling, and nearly all the remedies are taken orally along with ingredients such as water, milk or honey for ease of ingestion. Traditional healers prepare plant remedies using one or more plants. There was a significant correlation (r2 = 0.95) between the age of local people and the number of plants known to them, which indicates that in the coming 20 years, an approximate decrease of 75% in the indigenous knowledge may be expected. Conclusion Traditional medicines are important to the livelihoods of rural communities in the region affected by the Global war on Terrorism. The medicinal recipes are indigenous; however, there is a threat to their future use on account of rapid modernization and terrorist activities

  4. Promoting Climate Literacy through Collaborative Temperature Investigations at Local, Regional, and Global Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geary, E. E.; Charlevoix, D.; Hoffman, M.

    2009-12-01

    One of the fundamental challenges in promoting student and citizen climate literacy is developing awareness and understanding of the time and spatial scales on which climate changes occur. Students and citizens living in polar regions are now able to observe changes in sea ice extent, permafrost depth, and local ecosystems that have occurred in their lifetimes. In other parts of the world, environmental changes related to climate tend to be more subtle making it more challenging for students and citizens to recognize how changes in climate are affecting their communities. The GLOBE program, an international science and education program operating in 110 countries, implements field-based research and education programs that directly involve students and citizens in observations of their local environment as well as online collaboration using Web 2.0 communication tools to share and discuss how their research findings compare to other environments around the world. In fall 2009, secondary students from several GLOBE schools from around the world will use the GLOBE Minimum-Maximum Temperature protocol to determine daily and monthly average mean air temperatures. Students will collect data in a manner identical to that used by scientists who contributed to the International Panel on Climate Change reports. Students will then use historic weather and climate data from nearby global weather stations to create baseline weather and climate profiles for their communities. Students will use FieldScope, an online GIS tool created by the National Geographic Society to compare their data to temperature trends in their regions for the past 30 to 50 years. Students will share the results of their local temperature investigations with other participating schools via a live Webinar and through asynchronous Web-based conversations held in conjunction with the annual meeting of the Group on Earth Observations. Students participating in this “Great Global Investigation of

  5. Responses of grape berry anthocyanin and titratable acidity to the projected climate change across the Western Australian wine regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnuud, Nyamdorj N.; Zerihun, Ayalsew; Mpelasoka, Freddie; Gibberd, Mark; Bates, Bryson

    2014-08-01

    More than a century of observations has established that climate influences grape berry composition. Accordingly, the projected global climate change is expected to impact on grape berry composition although the magnitude and direction of impact at regional and subregional scales are not fully known. The aim of this study was to assess potential impacts of climate change on levels of berry anthocyanin and titratable acidity (TA) of the major grapevine varieties grown across all of the Western Australian (WA) wine regions. Grape berry anthocyanin and TA responses across all WA wine regions were projected for 2030, 2050 and 2070 by utilising empirical models that link these berry attributes and climate data downscaled (to ˜5 km resolution) from the csiro_mk3_5 and miroc3_2_medres global climate model outputs under IPCC SRES A2 emissions scenario. Due to the dependence of berry composition on maturity, climate impacts on anthocyanin and TA levels were assessed at a common maturity of 22 °Brix total soluble solids (TSS), which necessitated the determination of when this maturity will be reached for each variety, region and warming scenario, and future period. The results indicate that both anthocyanin and TA levels will be affected negatively by a warming climate, but the magnitude of the impacts will differ between varieties and wine regions. Compared to 1990 levels, median anthocyanins concentrations are projected to decrease, depending on global climate model, by up to 3-12 % and 9-33 % for the northern wine regions by 2030 and 2070, respectively while 2-18 % reductions are projected in the southern wine regions for the same time periods. Patterns of reductions in the median Shiraz berry anthocyanin concentrations are similar to that of Cabernet Sauvignon; however, the magnitude is lower (up to 9-18 % in southern and northern wine regions respectively by 2070). Similarly, uneven declines in TA levels are projected across the study regions. The largest reductions

  6. Responses of grape berry anthocyanin and titratable acidity to the projected climate change across the Western Australian wine regions.

    PubMed

    Barnuud, Nyamdorj N; Zerihun, Ayalsew; Mpelasoka, Freddie; Gibberd, Mark; Bates, Bryson

    2014-08-01

    More than a century of observations has established that climate influences grape berry composition. Accordingly, the projected global climate change is expected to impact on grape berry composition although the magnitude and direction of impact at regional and subregional scales are not fully known. The aim of this study was to assess potential impacts of climate change on levels of berry anthocyanin and titratable acidity (TA) of the major grapevine varieties grown across all of the Western Australian (WA) wine regions. Grape berry anthocyanin and TA responses across all WA wine regions were projected for 2030, 2050 and 2070 by utilising empirical models that link these berry attributes and climate data downscaled (to ∼5 km resolution) from the csiro_mk3_5 and miroc3_2_medres global climate model outputs under IPCC SRES A2 emissions scenario. Due to the dependence of berry composition on maturity, climate impacts on anthocyanin and TA levels were assessed at a common maturity of 22 °Brix total soluble solids (TSS), which necessitated the determination of when this maturity will be reached for each variety, region and warming scenario, and future period. The results indicate that both anthocyanin and TA levels will be affected negatively by a warming climate, but the magnitude of the impacts will differ between varieties and wine regions. Compared to 1990 levels, median anthocyanins concentrations are projected to decrease, depending on global climate model, by up to 3-12 % and 9-33 % for the northern wine regions by 2030 and 2070, respectively while 2-18 % reductions are projected in the southern wine regions for the same time periods. Patterns of reductions in the median Shiraz berry anthocyanin concentrations are similar to that of Cabernet Sauvignon; however, the magnitude is lower (up to 9-18 % in southern and northern wine regions respectively by 2070). Similarly, uneven declines in TA levels are projected across the study regions. The largest reductions

  7. Central America Regional Climate Change Program: Tools for Your Use

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Irwin, Dan; Irving, Bill; Yeager, Carey

    2006-01-01

    USAID/E-CAM and EGAT's Global Climate Change Team, in partnership with EPA, NASA, Oak Ridge National Lab, and the Central American Commission for Environment and Development (CCAD), have had a significant impact on the region's ability to monitor, mitigate, and adapt to environmental threats. Environmental decision-making tools and data are posted on a website (SERVIR: http://servir.nsstc.nasa.pov/home.html)that provides satellite and geographic data and maps to anybody with an Internet connection. The SERVIR program has been identified as the model for the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) - a major international effort to develop a 21st century system for environmental management and disaster response. In coordination with the USAID/EPA program, NASA has developed a GIs tool that enables countries to examine their forest cover and document changes on an annual basis. This information is used in calculating carbon emissions as part of greenhouse gas inventories, but also serves a valuable monitoring function. In addition, USAID/E-CAM and EGAT's Global Climate Change Team in collaboration with EPA are helping countries meet their obligations as signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). EPA is assisting Central American governments to improve the quality of their greenhouse gas emission inventories reported to the UNFCCC through the development of tools and improvements in data quality. New EPA tools developed include software to automatically calculate greenhouse gas emissions for the agricultural and forestry sector inventories, determine key sources of greenhouse gas emissions, and document institutional arrangements. Several of these tools are state of the art and are comparable to tools currently used in the U.S.

  8. Climatic Consequences and Agricultural Impact of Regional Nuclear Conflict

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toon, O. B.; Robock, A.; Mills, M. J.; Xia, L.

    2013-05-01

    A nuclear war between India and Pakistan, with each country using 50 Hiroshima-sized atom bombs as airbursts on urban areas, would inject smoke from the resulting fires into the stratosphere.This could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and global-scale ozone depletion, with enhanced ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the surface.Simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), run at higher vertical and horizontal resolution than a previous simulation with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE, and incorporating ozone chemistry for the first time, show a longer stratospheric residence time for smoke and hence a longer-lasting climate response, with global average surface air temperatures still 1.1 K below normal and global average precipitation 4% below normal after a decade.The erythemal dose from the enhanced UV radiation would greatly increase, in spite of enhanced absorption by the remaining smoke, with the UV index more than 3 units higher in the summer midlatitudes, even after a decade. Scenarios of changes in temperature, precipitation, and downward shortwave radiation from the ModelE and WACCM simulations, applied to the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model for winter wheat, rice, soybeans, and maize by perturbing observed time series with anomalies from the regional nuclear war simulations, produce decreases of 10-50% in yield averaged over a decade, with larger decreases in the first several years, over the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The impact of the nuclear war simulated here, using much less than 1% of the global nuclear arsenal, would be devastating to world agricultural production and trade, possibly sentencing a billion people now living marginal existences to starvation.The continued environmental threat of the use of even a small number of nuclear weapons must be considered in nuclear policy deliberations in Russia, the U.S., and the rest of

  9. Effects of climatic changes on anisakid nematodes in polar regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rokicki, Jerzy

    2009-11-01

    Anisakid nematodes are common in Antarctic, sub-Antarctic, and Arctic areas. Current distributional knowledge of anisakids in the polar regions is reviewed. Climatic variables influence the occurrence and abundance of anisakids, directly influencing their free-living larval stages and also indirectly influencing their predominantly invertebrate (but also vertebrate) hosts. As these parasites can also be pathogenic for humans, the paucity of information available is a source of additional hazard. As fish are a major human dietary component in Arctic and Antarctic areas, and are often eaten without heat processing, a high risk of infection by anisakid larvae might be expected. The present level of knowledge, particularly relating to anisakid larval stages present in fishes, is far from satisfactory. Preliminary molecular studies have revealed the presence of species complexes. Contemporary climate warming is modifying the marine environment and may result in an extension of time during which anisakid eggs can persist and hatch, and of the time period during which newly hatched larvae remain viable. As a result there may be an increase in the extent of anisakid distribution. Continued warming will modify the composition of the parasitic nematode fauna of marine animals, due to changes in feeding habits, as the warming of the sea and any localised reduction in salinity (from freshwater runoff) can be expected to bring about changes in the species composition of pelagic and benthic invertebrates.

  10. Twenty-first century changes in snowfall climate in Northern Europe in ENSEMBLES regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Räisänen, Jouni

    2016-01-01

    Changes in snowfall in northern Europe (55-71°N, 5-35°E) are analysed from 12 regional model simulations of twenty-first century climate under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B scenario. As an ensemble mean, the models suggest a decrease in the winter total snowfall in nearly all of northern Europe. In the middle of the winter, however, snowfall generally increases in the coldest areas. The borderline between increasing and decreasing snowfall broadly coincides with the -11 °C isotherm in baseline (1980-2010) monthly mean temperature, although with variation between models and grid boxes. High extremes of daily snowfall remain nearly unchanged, except for decreases in the mildest areas, where snowfall as a whole becomes much less common. A smaller fraction of the snow in the simulated late twenty-first century climate falls on severely cold days and a larger fraction on days with near-zero temperatures. Not only do days with low temperatures become less common, but they also typically have more positive anomalies of sea level pressure and less snowfall for the same temperature than in the present-day climate.

  11. Climate change and the Portuguese precipitation: ENSEMBLES regional climate models results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soares, Pedro M. M.; Cardoso, Rita M.; Ferreira, João Jacinto; Miranda, Pedro M. A.

    2015-10-01

    In Portugal, the precipitation regimes present one of the highest volumes of extreme precipitation occurrence in Europe, and one of the largest mean precipitation spatial gradient (annual observed values above 2,500 mm in the NW and under 400 mm in the SE). Moreover, southern Europe is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to climate change. In the ENSEMBLES framework many climate change assessment studies were performed, but none focused on Portuguese precipitation. An extensive evaluation and ranking of the RCMs results addressing the representation of mean precipitation and frequency distributions was performed through the computation of statistical errors and frequency distribution scores. With these results, an ensemble was constructed; giving the same weight to mean precipitation and distribution model skills. This ensemble reveals a good ability to describe the precipitation regime in Portugal, and enables the evaluation of the eventual impact of climate change on Portuguese precipitation according to the A1B scenario. The mean seasonal precipitation is expected to decrease substantially in all seasons, excluding winter. This reduction is statistically significant; it spans from less than 20 % in the north to 40 % in the south in the intermediate seasons, and is above 50 % in the largest portion of mainland in summer. At a basin level the precipitation diminishes in all months for all the basins with exception of December. Total precipitation PDFs reveal an important decrease of the contribution from low to moderate/high precipitation bins, and a striking rise for days with extreme rainfall, up to 30 %.

  12. Freezing Rain Diagnostic Study Over Eastern Canada Using the 5th Generation Canadian Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bresson, É.; Paquin, D.; Laprise, R.; Theriault, J. M.; de Elía, R.

    2015-12-01

    Northeastern North America is often affected by freezing rain events during the cold season. They can have significant consequences (from road accidents, to severe power outages) despite their intensity and duration. The 1998 Ice Storm over Eastern Canada and Northeastern United States is an example of an extreme event with catastrophic consequences. A total of up to 150 mm of ice accumulated during 10 days were observed in some areas. This natural disaster has highlighted the need to better understand how such phenomena will evolve with future climate scenario. The goal is to investigate the feasibility of using regional climate modeling to diagnose the occurrence of freezing rain events over Quebec (Canada). To address this issue, we used the 5th generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5), from 1979 to 2014. An empirical method (Bourgouin, 2000) developed to determine the type of winter precipitations was chosen to diagnose freezing rain events. The study focused in the Montreal area and the St. Lawrence River Valley (Quebec, Canada). The sensitivity of the model to horizontal resolution was explored by using three resolutions: 0.44°, 0.22° and 0.11°. In general, freezing rain was diagnosed consistently at all resolutions but the higher one (0.11°) produced more realistic results due to a better representation of the orography. Using the higher resolution, the results showed that the climatology of the freezing rain occurrence in the Montreal area is comparable to available observations. It also suggested that the role of the specific orography of the region with the St. Lawrence River Valley can impact the characteristics of freezing rain events in this area. Overall, this study will contribute to a better preparedness for such events in the future. High resolution regional climate simulations are essential to improve the reproduction of local scale orographically-forced phenomena.

  13. Determinability of inter-annual global and regional climatic changes of the earth radiation budget

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ardanuy, P. E.

    1983-01-01

    The degradation characteristics of Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) experiments are examined with reference to the results of recent investigations into the calibration adjustments of the Wide Field of View channels on board the Nimbus 6 and 7 ERB experiments. The mechanisms of degradation are discussed, and changes in the transmissive and reflective properties of radiometers affecting their sensitivities and calibrations are estimated. It is emphasized that in order to observe interannual climate change on a global or a regional scale, calibration adjustments are a necessity.

  14. Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulations over the Contiguous United States Including Potential Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Changhai; Rasmussen, Roy; Ikeda, Kyoko; Barlage, Michael; Chen, Fei; Clark, Martyn; Dai, Aiguo; Dudhia, Jimy; Gochis, David; Gutmann, Ethan; Li, Yanping; Newman, Andrew; Thompson, Gregory

    2016-04-01

    The WRF model with a domain size of 1360x1016x51 points, using a 4 km spacing to encompass most of North America, is employed to investigate the water cycle and climate change impacts over the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Four suites of numerical experiments are being conducted, consisting of a 13-year retrospective simulation forced with ERA-I reanalysis, a 13-year climate sensitivity or Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) simulation, and two 10-year CMIP5-based historical/future period simulations based on a revised bias-correction method. The major objectives are: 1) to evaluate high-resolution WRF's capability to capture orographic precipitation and snow mass balance over the western CONUS and convective precipitation over the eastern CONUS; 2) to assess future changes of seasonal snowfall and snowpack and associated hydrological cycles along with their regional variability across the different mountain barriers and elevation dependency, in response to the CMIP5 projected 2071-2100 climate warming; 3) to examine the precipitation changes under the projected global warming, with an emphasis on precipitation extremes and the warm-season precipitation corridor in association with MCS tracks in the central US; and 4) to provide a valuable community dataset for regional climate change and impact studies. Preliminary analysis of the retrospective simulation shows both seasonal/sub-seasonal precipitation and temperature are well reproduced, with precipitation bias being within 10% of the observations and temperature bias being below 1 degree C in most seasons and locations. The observed annual cycle of snow water equivalent (SWE), such as peak time and disappearance time, is also realistically replicated, even though the peak value is somewhat underestimated. The PGW simulation shows a large cold-season warming in northeast US and eastern Canada, possibly associated with snow albedo feedback, and a strong summer warming in north central US in association with

  15. Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stenke, A.; Hoyle, C. R.; Luo, B.; Rozanov, E.; Gröbner, J.; Maag, L.; Brönnimann, S.; Peter, T.

    2013-05-01

    Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on Earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a different family of CCMs than previously used, to investigate the consequences of such a hypothetical nuclear conflict. In accordance with previous studies, the present work assumes a scenario of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, each applying 50 warheads with an individual blasting power of 15 kt ("Hiroshima size") against the major population centers, resulting in the emission of tiny soot particles, which are generated in the firestorms expected in the aftermath of the detonations. Substantial uncertainties related to the calculation of likely soot emissions, particularly concerning assumptions of target fuel loading and targeting of weapons, have been addressed by simulating several scenarios, with soot emissions ranging from 1 to 12 Tg. Their high absorptivity with respect to solar radiation leads to a tremendous self-lofting of the soot particles into the strato- and mesosphere, where they remain for several years. Consequently, the model suggests Earth's surface temperatures to drop by several degrees Celsius due to the shielding of solar irradiance by the soot, indicating a major global cooling. In addition, there is a substantial reduction of precipitation lasting 5 to 10 yr after the conflict, depending on the magnitude of the initial soot release. Extreme cold spells associated with massive sea ice formation are found during Northern Hemisphere winter, which expose the continental land masses of Northern America and Eurasia to chilling coldness. In the

  16. Developing a Regionally-Based "Next Generation" High School Climate Science Curriculum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bell, M.; Clark, J.; Getty, S. R.; Marks, J.; Hungate, B. A.; Kaufman, D. S.; Coles, R.; Haden, C.; Cooley, N.

    2012-12-01

    Colorado Plateau Carbon Connections is a regionally relevant, culturally responsive, technology-rich high school climate science curriculum for the Colorado Plateau/Four Corners region. Funded by an NSF Climate Change Education Partnership grant, the 10-lesson curriculum supplement is the result of collaboration between Northern Arizona University climate scientists, social scientists and educators and the NASA-funded Biological Sciences Curriculum Study Carbon Connections project. The curriculum includes disciplinary core ideas in Earth Science from A Framework for K-12 Science Education. It integrates cross-cutting relationships and science and engineering practices. Students are introduced to regional and global effects of climate change, and build their understanding of climate science using simulations and climate models. The models are based on authentic data and allow students to explore the roles of carbon dioxide, volcanic forcing, El Niño effects, solar variability, and anthropogenic inputs to the climate system. Students also negate climate misconceptions using climate science, and analyze personal connections to the climate system. They examine their own carbon footprints and propose regionally based solutions for mitigating the effects of climate change. The curriculum was field tested in Spring 2012 with 384 students and ten teachers in seven schools. The evaluation shows strong student engagement and increased knowledge of climate science and solutions. This curriculum also serves as a model for integrating regional issues into climate science education.

  17. Using a Coupled Lake Model with WRF to Improve High-Resolution Regional Climate Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mallard, M.; Bullock, R.; Nolte, C. G.; Alapaty, K.; Otte, T.; Gula, J.

    2012-12-01

    Lakes can play a significant role in regional climate by modifying air masses through fluxes of heat and moisture and by modulating inland extremes in temperature. Representing these effects becomes more important as regional climate modeling efforts employ finer grid spacing in order to simulate smaller scales. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model does not simulate lakes explicitly. Instead, lake points are treated as ocean points, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) interpolated from the nearest neighboring ocean point in the driving coarse-scale fields. This can result in substantial errors for inland lakes such as the Great Lakes. Although prescribed lake surface temperatures (LSTs) can be used for retrospective modeling applications, this may not be desirable for applications involving downscaling future climate scenarios from a global climate model (GCM). In such downscaling simulations, lakes that impact the regional climate in the area of interest may not be resolved by the coarser global input fields. Explicitly simulating the LST would allow WRF to better represent interannual variability in regions significantly affected by lakes, and the influence of such variability on temperature and precipitation patterns. Therefore, coupling a lake model to WRF may lead to more reliable assessments of the impacts of extreme events on human health and the environment. We employ a version of WRF coupled to the Freshwater Lake model, FLake (Gula and Peltier 2012). FLake is a 1D bulk lake model which provides updated LSTs and ice coverage throughout the integration. This two-layer model uses a temperature-depth profile which includes a homogeneous mixed layer at the surface and a thermocline below. The shape of the thermocline is assumed, based on past theoretical and observational studies. Therefore, additional variables required for FLake to run are minimal, and it does not require tuning for individual lakes. These characteristics are advantageous for a

  18. The Polar Regions and Martian Climate: Studies with a Global Climate Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, R. J.; Richardson, M. I.; Smith, M. D.

    2003-01-01

    Much of the interest in the polar regions centers on the fact that they likely contain the best record of Martian climate change on time scales from years to eons. This expectation is based upon the observed occurrence of weathering product deposits and volatile reservoirs that are coupled to the climate. Interpretation and understanding of these records requires understanding of the mechanisms that involve the exchange of dust, water, and carbon dioxide between the surface and atmosphere, and the atmospheric redistribution of these species. We will summarize our use of the GFDL Mars general circulation model (MGCM), to exploration aspects of the interaction between the global climate and the polar regions. For example, our studies have shown that while the northern polar cap is the dominant seasonal source for water, it can act as a net annual source or sink for water, depending upon the cap temperatures and the bulk humidity of the atmosphere. This behavior regulates the annual and global average humidity of the atmosphere, as the cap acts as a sink if the atmosphere is too wet and a source if it is too dry. We will then focus our presentation on the ability of the MGCM to simulate the observed diurnal variations of surface temperature. We are particularly interested in assessing the influence of dust aerosol and water ice clouds on simulated surface temperature and the comparison with observations. Surface thermal inertia and albedo are critical boundary inputs for MGCM simulations. Thermal inertia is also of intrinsic interest as it may be related to properties of the surface such as particle size and surface character.

  19. Building America Best Practices Series: Guide to Determining Climate Regions by County

    SciTech Connect

    Gilbride, Theresa L.

    2008-10-01

    This document describes the eight climate region designations used by the US Department of Energy Building America Program. In addition to describing the climate zones, the document includes a complete list of every county in the United States and their climate region designations. The county lists are grouped by state. The doucment is intended to assist builders to easily identify what climate region they are building in and therefore which climate-specific Building America best practices guide would be most appropriate for them.

  20. Regional climate response to land surface changes after harvest in the North China Plain under present and possible future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cho, Mee-Hyun; Boo, Kyung-On; Lee, Johan; Cho, Chunho; Lim, Gyu-Ho

    2014-04-01

    In this study, we investigated the impacts of land use alterations from harvesting practices on the regional surface climate over the North China Plain. The surface climate responses after harvest in June in regions where double-cropping is practiced were evaluated using observations and model simulations with the global climate model HadGEM2-Atmosphere. Responses were modeled under both present and possible future climate conditions. In the model, double-cropping was represented using the monthly varying fraction of vegetation. This contributed to an improvement in the model simulation over East Asia. Modeling results showed that the land surface was warmer and drier after harvest, and these simulation results were consistent with observations. The bare soil surface after harvest in June had biophysical impacts on the surface climate that were mediated by decreasing evapotranspiration and latent heat flux effects, which increased surface air temperatures and decreased surface humidity. An increase in shortwave radiation also contributed to the rise in temperatures. Under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios for possible future climate conditions, land conversion induced additional warming in addition to greenhouse gases induced global warming. The RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 scenarios demonstrated a warming of 1.0°C and 1.4°C due to harvesting practices in June, respectively. The response magnitude was affected by the climate conditions in each RCP. Our results suggest that potential impacts of harvest on the local climate need to be considered in future projections of CO2-induced warming on a regional scale.

  1. Regional Climate Modeling over the Glaciated Regions of the Canadian High Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gready, Benjamin P.

    The Canadian Arctic Islands (CAI) contain the largest concentration of terrestrial ice outside of the continental ice sheets. Mass loss from this region has recently increased sharply due to above average summer temperatures. Thus, increasing the understanding of the mechanisms responsible for mass loss from this region is critical. Previously, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) have been utilized to estimate climatic balance over Greenland and Antarctica. This method offers the opportunity to study a full suite of climatic variables over extensive spatially distributed grids. However, there are doubts of the applicability of such models to the CAI, given the relatively complex topography of the CAI. To test RCMs in the CAI, the polar version of the regional climate model MM5 was run at high resolution over Devon Ice Cap. At low altitudes, residuals (computed through comparisons with in situ measurements) in the net radiation budget were driven primarily by residuals in net shortwave (NSW) radiation. Residuals in NSW are largely due to inaccuracies in modeled cloud cover and modeled albedo. Albedo on glaciers and ice sheets is oversimplified in Polar MM5 and its successor, the Polar version of the Weather Research and Forecast model (Polar WRF), and is an obvious place for model improvement. Subsequently, an inline parameterization of albedo for Polar WRF was developed as a function of the depth, temperature and age of snow. The parameterization was able to reproduce elevation gradients of seasonal mean albedo derived from satellite albedo measurements (MODIS MOD10A1 daily albedo), on the western slope of the Greenland Ice Sheet for three years. Feedbacks between modelled albedo and modelled surface energy budget components were identified. The shortwave radiation flux feeds back positively with changes to albedo, whereas the longwave, turbulent and ground energy fluxes all feed back negatively, with a maximum combined magnitude of two thirds of the shortwave feedback

  2. [Carbon source metabolic diversity of soil microbial community under different climate types in the area affected by Wenchuan earthquake].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Guang-Shuai; Lin, Yong-Ming; Ma, Rui-Feng; Deng, Hao-Jun; Du, Kun; Wu, Cheng-Zhen; Hong, Wei

    2015-02-01

    The MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 led to huge damage to land covers in northwest Sichuan, one of the critical fragile eco-regions in China which can be divided into Semi-arid dry hot climate zone (SDHC) and Subtropical humid monsoon climate zone (SHMC). Using the method of Bilog-ECO-microplate technique, this paper aimed to determine the functional diversity of soil microbial community in the earthquake-affected areas which can be divided into undamaged area (U), recover area (R) and damaged area without recovery (D) under different climate types, in order to provide scientific basis for ecological recovery. The results indicated that the average-well-color-development (AWCD) in undamaged area and recovery area showed SDHC > SHMC, which was contrary to the AWCD in the damaged area without recovery. The AWCD of damaged area without recovery was the lowest in both climate zones. The number of carbon source utilization types of soil microbial in SHMC zone was significantly higher than that in SDHC zone. The carbon source utilization types in both climate zones presented a trend of recover area > undamaged area > damaged area without recovery. The carbon source metabolic diversity characteristic of soil microbial community was significantly different in different climate zones. The diversity index and evenness index both showed a ranking of undamaged area > recover area > damaged area without recovery. In addition, the recovery area had the highest richness index. The soil microbial carbon sources metabolism characteristic was affected by soil nutrient, aboveground vegetation biomass and vegetation coverage to some extent. In conclusion, earthquake and its secondary disasters influenced the carbon source metabolic diversity characteristic of soil microbial community mainly through the change of aboveground vegetation and soil environmental factors.

  3. Regional climate models downscaling in the Alpine area with Multimodel SuperEnsemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cane, D.; Barbarino, S.; Renier, L. A.; Ronchi, C.

    2012-08-01

    The climatic scenarios show a strong signal of warming in the Alpine area already for the mid XXI century. The climate simulations, however, even when obtained with Regional Climate Models (RCMs), are affected by strong errors where compared with observations, due to their difficulties in representing the complex orography of the Alps and limitations in their physical parametrization. Therefore the aim of this work is reducing these model biases using a specific post processing statistic technique to obtain a more suitable projection of climate change scenarios in the Alpine area. For our purposes we use a selection of RCMs runs from the ENSEMBLES project, carefully chosen in order to maximise the variety of leading Global Climate Models and of the RCMs themselves, calculated on the SRES scenario A1B. The reference observation for the Greater Alpine Area are extracted from the European dataset E-OBS produced by the project ENSEMBLES with an available resolution of 25 km. For the study area of Piedmont daily temperature and precipitation observations (1957-present) were carefully gridded on a 14-km grid over Piedmont Region with an Optimal Interpolation technique. Hence, we applied the Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique to temperature fields, reducing the high biases of RCMs temperature field compared to observations in the control period. We propose also the first application to RCMS of a brand new probabilistic Multimodel SuperEnsemble Dressing technique to estimate precipitation fields, already applied successfully to weather forecast models, with careful description of precipitation Probability Density Functions conditioned to the model outputs. This technique reduces the strong precipitation overestimation by RCMs over the alpine chain and reproduces well the monthly behaviour of precipitation in the control period.

  4. Assessing the Future Climate Change in Amazon Basin as Derived from the PRECIS Regional Climate Modeling System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alves, L. M.; Marengo, J. A.; Fu, R.

    2014-12-01

    A number of extreme climate events, such as severe droughts occurred in 2005 and 2010, and impacts from multiple anthropogenic sources, including deforestation, in the Amazon basin have caused widespread socio-ecological stresses and may contribute as a positive feedback to the global climate change. Climate variability and change over the Amazon basin pose significant challenges for society. This is the case when uncertainties in projections of regional climate changes exist. To assess the climate projections and possible changes in the dry season (strength and duration) over Amazon, we have conducted a suite of experiments using the PRECIS regional climate modeling system driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model HadCM3. The global model ensemble was run over the twenty-first century according to the SRES A1B emissions scenario, but with each member having different climate sensitivity. The four members selected to drive the PRECIS model span the sensitivity range in the global model ensemble. Results presented here focus on austral summer and winter climate of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 periods. In additional, we have used one of the new LU scenarios (for 2050) developed within AMAZALERT Project to assess its effects on climate over the Amazon basin relative to the standard PRECIS simulation.

  5. Regional and seasonal response of a West Nile virus vector to climate change.

    PubMed

    Morin, Cory W; Comrie, Andrew C

    2013-09-24

    Climate change will affect the abundance and seasonality of West Nile virus (WNV) vectors, altering the risk of virus transmission to humans. Using downscaled general circulation model output, we calculate a WNV vector's response to climate change across the southern United States using process-based modeling. In the eastern United States, Culex quinquefasciatus response to projected climate change displays a latitudinal and elevational gradient. Projected summer population depressions as a result of increased immature mortality and habitat drying are most severe in the south and almost absent further north; extended spring and fall survival is ubiquitous. Much of California also exhibits a bimodal pattern. Projected onset of mosquito season is delayed in the southwestern United States because of extremely dry and hot spring and summers; however, increased temperature and late summer and fall rains extend the mosquito season. These results are unique in being a broad-scale calculation of the projected impacts of climate change on a WNV vector. The results show that, despite projected widespread future warming, the future seasonal response of C. quinquefasciatus populations across the southern United States will not be homogeneous, and will depend on specific combinations of local and regional conditions.

  6. Impact of regional afforestation on climatic conditions in metropolitan areas: case study of Copenhagen

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stysiak, Aleksander Andrzej; Bergen Jensen, Marina; Mahura, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    that well-positioned and well-sized afforestation at the regional scale can significantly affect the spatial distribution, structure and intensity of the temperature field. This study points to vegetation having practical applications in urban and regional planning for modifying local climatic conditions. Keywords: Urban Heat Island, Afforestation, Land cover change, Urban planning, Climate change adaptation, Enviro-HIRLAM

  7. USDA Midwest and Northern Forests Regional Climate Hub: Assessment of climate change vulnerability and adaptation and mitigation strategies

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Midwest Regional Climate Hub covers the States of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin and represents one of the most extensive and intensive agricultural systems in the world. The Northern Forests Climate Sub Hub shares this footprint and represents people...

  8. Regional Climate Simulation with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM: The Regional Down-Scaling Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.; Takacs, Lawrence L.; Suarez, Max; Sawyer, William; Govindaraju, Ravi C.

    1999-01-01

    The results obtained with the variable resolution stretched grid (SG) GEOS GCM (Goddard Earth Observing System General Circulation Models) are discussed, with the emphasis on the regional down-scaling effects and their dependence on the stretched grid design and parameters. A variable resolution SG-GCM and SG-DAS using a global stretched grid with fine resolution over an area of interest, is a viable new approach to REGIONAL and subregional CLIMATE studies and applications. The stretched grid approach is an ideal tool for representing regional to global scale interactions. It is an alternative to the widely used nested grid approach introduced a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. The GEOS SG-GCM is used for simulations of the anomalous U.S. climate events of 1988 drought and 1993 flood, with enhanced regional resolution. The height low level jet, precipitation and other diagnostic patterns are successfully simulated and show the efficient down-scaling over the area of interest the U.S. An imitation of the nested grid approach is performed using the developed SG-DAS (Data Assimilation System) that incorporates the SG-GCM. The SG-DAS is run with withholding data over the area of interest. The design immitates the nested grid framework with boundary conditions provided from analyses. No boundary condition buffer is needed for the case due to the global domain of integration used for the SG-GCM and SG-DAS. The experiments based on the newly developed versions of the GEOS SG-GCM and SG-DAS, with finer 0.5 degree (and higher) regional resolution, are briefly discussed. The major aspects of parallelization of the SG-GCM code are outlined. The KEY OBJECTIVES of the study are: 1) obtaining an efficient DOWN-SCALING over the area of interest with fine and very fine resolution; 2) providing CONSISTENT interactions between regional and global scales including the consistent representation of regional ENERGY and WATER BALANCES; 3) providing a high

  9. Quantification of the uncertainties in soil and vegetation parameterizations for regional climate predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Breil, Marcus; Schädler, Gerd

    2016-04-01

    The aim of the german research program MiKlip II is the development of an operational climate prediction system that can provide reliable forecasts on a decadal time scale. Thereby, one goal of MiKlip II is to investigate the feasibility of regional climate predictions. Results of recent studies indicate that the regional climate is significantly affected by the interactions between the soil, the vegetation and the atmosphere. Thus, within the framework of MiKlip II a workpackage was established to assess the impact of these interactions on the regional decadal climate predictability. In a Regional Climate Model (RCM) the soil-vegetation-atmosphere interactions are represented in a Land Surface Model (LSM). Thereby, the LSM describes the current state of the land surface by calculating the soil temperature, the soil water content and the turbulent heat fluxes, serving the RCM as lower boundary condition. To be able to solve the corresponding equations, soil and vegetation processes are parameterized within the LSM. Such parameterizations are mainly derived from observations. But in most cases observations are temporally and spatially limited and consequently not able to represent the diversity of nature completely. Thus, soil and vegetation parameterizations always exhibit a certain degree of uncertainty. In the presented study, the uncertainties within a LSM are assessed by stochastic variations of the relevant parameterizations in VEG3D, a LSM developed at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT). In a first step, stand-alone simulations of VEG3D are realized with varying soil and vegetation parameters, to identify sensitive model parameters. In a second step, VEG3D is coupled to the RCM COSMO-CLM. With this new model system regional decadal hindcast simulations, driven by global simulations of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), are performed for the CORDEX-EU domain in a resolution of 0.22°. The identified sensitive model

  10. Simulation of the Arid Climate of the Southern Great Basin Using a Regional Climate Model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giorgi, Filippo; Bates, Gary T.; Nieman, Steven J.

    1992-11-01

    As part of the development effort of a regional climate model (RCM)for the southern Great Basin, this paper present savalidation analysis of the climatology generated by a high-resolution RCM driven by observations. The RCM is aversion of the National Center for atmospheric Research-Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model, version 4 (MM4), modified for application to regional climate simulation. Two multiyear simulations, for the periods 1 January 1982 to 31 December 1983 and 1 January 1988 to 25 April 1989, were performed over the western United States with the RCM driven by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses of observations. The model resolution is 60 km. This validation analysis is the first phase of a project to produce simulations of future climate scenarios over a region surrounding Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the only location currently being considered as a potential high-level nuclear-waste repository site.Model-produced surface air temperatures and precipitation were compared with observations from five southern Nevada stations located in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain. The seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation were simulated well. Monthly and seasonal temperature biases were generally negative and largely explained by differences in elevation between the observing stations and the model topography. The model-simulated precipitation captured the extreme dryness of the Great Basin. Average yearly precipitation was generally within 30% of observed and the range of monthly precipitation amounts was the same as in the observations. Precipitation biases were mostly negative in the summer and positive in the winter. The number of simulated daily precipitation events for various precipitation intervals was within factors of 1.5-3.5 of observed. Overall, the model tended to overestimate the number of light precipitation events and underestimate the number of heavy precipitation events. At Yucca Mountain, simulated

  11. Potential Effects of Climate Changes on Aquatic Systems: Laurentian Great Lakes and Precambrian Shield Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magnuson, J. J.; Webster, K. E.; Assel, R. A.; Bowser, C. J.; Dillon, P. J.; Eaton, J. G.; Evans, H. E.; Fee, E. J.; Hall, R. I.; Mortsch, L. R.; Schindler, D. W.; Quinn, F. H.

    1997-06-01

    The region studied includes the Laurentian Great Lakes and a diversity of smaller glacial lakes, streams and wetlands south of permanent permafrost and towards the southern extent of Wisconsin glaciation. We emphasize lakes and quantitative implications. The region is warmer and wetter than it has been over most of the last 12000 years. Since 1911 observed air temperatures have increased by about 0·11°C per decade in spring and 0·06°C in winter; annual precipitation has increased by about 2·1% per decade. Ice thaw phenologies since the 1850s indicate a late winter warming of about 2·5°C. In future scenarios for a doubled CO2 climate, air temperature increases in summer and winter and precipitation decreases (summer) in western Ontario but increases (winter) in western Ontario, northern Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Such changes in climate have altered and would further alter hydrological and other physical features of lakes. Warmer climates, i.e. 2 × CO2 climates, would lower net basin water supplies, stream flows and water levels owing to increased evaporation in excess of precipitation. Water levels have been responsive to drought and future scenarios for the Great Lakes simulate levels 0·2 to 2·5 m lower. Human adaptation to such changes is expensive. Warmer climates would decrease the spatial extent of ice cover on the Great Lakes; small lakes, especially to the south, would no longer freeze over every year. Temperature simulations for stratified lakes are 1-7°C warmer for surface waters, and 6°C cooler to 8°C warmer for deep waters. Thermocline depth would change (4 m shallower to 3·5 m deeper) with warmer climates alone; deepening owing to increases in light penetration would occur with reduced input of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from dryer catchments. Dissolved oxygen would decrease below the thermocline. These physical changes would in turn affect the phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos and fishes. Annual phytoplankton production may

  12. California Wintertime Precipitation in Regional and Global Climate Models

    SciTech Connect

    Caldwell, P M

    2009-04-27

    In this paper, wintertime precipitation from a variety of observational datasets, regional climate models (RCMs), and general circulation models (GCMs) is averaged over the state of California (CA) and compared. Several averaging methodologies are considered and all are found to give similar values when model grid spacing is less than 3{sup o}. This suggests that CA is a reasonable size for regional intercomparisons using modern GCMs. Results show that reanalysis-forced RCMs tend to significantly overpredict CA precipitation. This appears to be due mainly to overprediction of extreme events; RCM precipitation frequency is generally underpredicted. Overprediction is also reflected in wintertime precipitation variability, which tends to be too high for RCMs on both daily and interannual scales. Wintertime precipitation in most (but not all) GCMs is underestimated. This is in contrast to previous studies based on global blended gauge/satellite observations which are shown here to underestimate precipitation relative to higher-resolution gauge-only datasets. Several GCMs provide reasonable daily precipitation distributions, a trait which doesn't seem tied to model resolution. GCM daily and interannual variability is generally underpredicted.

  13. Observational uncertainty of Arctic sea-ice concentration significantly affects seasonal climate forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bunzel, Felix; Notz, Dirk; Baehr, Johanna; Müller, Wolfgang; Fröhlich, Kristina

    2016-04-01

    We examine how the choice of a particular satellite-retrieved sea-ice concentration dataset used for initialising seasonal climate forecasts impacts the prediction skill of Arctic sea-ice area and Northern hemispheric 2-meter air temperatures. To do so, we performed two assimilation runs with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) from 1979 to 2012, where atmospheric and oceanic parameters as well as sea-ice concentration were assimilated using Newtonian relaxation. The two assimilation runs differ only in the sea-ice concentration dataset used for assimilating sea ice. In the first run, we use sea-ice concentrations as derived by the NASA-Team algorithm, while in the second run we use sea-ice concentrations as derived from the Bootstrap algorithm. A major difference between these two sea-ice concentration data products involves the treatment of melt ponds. While for both products melt ponds appear as open water in the raw satellite data, the Bootstrap algorithm more strongly attempts to offset this systematic bias by synthetically increasing the retrieved ice concentration during summer months. For each year of the two assimilation runs we performed a 10-member ensemble of hindcast experiments starting on 1 May and 1 November with a hindcast length of 6 months. For hindcasts started in November, initial differences in Arctic sea-ice area and surface temperature decrease rapidly throughout the freezing period. For hindcasts started in May, initial sea-ice area differences increase over time. By the end of the melting period, this causes significant differences in 2-meter air temperature of regionally more than 3°C. Hindcast skill for surface temperatures over Europe and North America is higher with Bootstrap initialization during summer and with NASA Team initialisation during winter. This implies that the choice of the sea-ice data product and, thus, the observational uncertainty also affects forecasts of teleconnections that depend on Northern

  14. The Impact of Climate Trends on a Tick Affecting Public Health: A Retrospective Modeling Approach for Hyalomma marginatum (Ixodidae)

    PubMed Central

    Estrada-Peña, Agustín; de la Fuente, José; Latapia, Tamara; Ortega, Carmelo

    2015-01-01

    The impact of climate trends during the period 1901–2009 on the life cycle of Hyalomma marginatum in Europe was modeled to assess changes in the physiological processes of this threat to public health. Monthly records of temperature and water vapour at a resolution of 0.5° and equations describing the life cycle processes of the tick were used. The climate in the target region affected the rates of the life cycle processes of H. marginatum: development rates increased, mortality rates in molting stages decreased, and the survival rates of questing ticks decreased in wide territories of the Mediterranean basin. The modeling framework indicated the existence of critical areas in the Balkans, central Europe, and the western coast of France, where the physiological processes of the tick improved to extents that are consistent with the persistence of populations if introduced. A spatially explicit risk assessment was performed to detect candidate areas where active surveys should be performed to monitor changes in tick density or persistence after a hypothetical introduction. We detected areas where the critical abiotic (climate) and biotic (host density) factors overlap, including most of the Iberian peninsula, the Mediterranean coast of France, eastern Turkey, and portions of the western Black Sea region. Wild ungulate densities are unavailable for large regions of the territory, a factor that might affect the outcome of the study. The risk of successfully establishing H. marginatum populations at northern latitudes of its current colonization range seems to be still low, even if the climate has improved the performance of the tick in these areas. PMID:25955315

  15. Regional characteristics of tropical expansion and the role of climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucas, Christopher; Nguyen, Hanh

    2015-07-01

    Radiosonde-based tropical expansion rate estimates for six continental-centered regions of the globe are discussed. New results from the Northern Hemisphere are presented, complementing previous Southern Hemisphere (SH) results using an identical methodology. Expansion rates are largest over Asia and Australia-New Zealand (ANZ). Other regions show more modest rates of expansion, and there is no statistically significant expansion over North America. In the hemispheric average, expansion rates are slightly larger in the SH. This asymmetry, although not statistically significant, is consistent with ozone depletion acting as a codriver of tropical expansion since 1979. The picture of regional expansion here is different from that in other studies or that derived solely from reanalyses. The relationships between tropical expansion and modes of climate variability are explored using partial regression techniques. Interannually, a relationship is seen with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) across most of the globe. Regionally, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has a significant impact over Asia, while the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) affects expansion over ANZ. Considering the longer-term changes in the climate variability indices since 1979, it suggests that the PDO may account for up to 50% of the observed tropical expansion over Asia, while SAM may account for 20-30% of the SH expansion, particularly over ANZ. Decadal changes in ENSO may account for a further 20-30% of the global and regional trends. Accounting for the effect of climate variability helps to reconcile the differences in observations and model-based simulations of tropical expansion.

  16. Characterizing Mediterranean Land Surfaces as Component of the Regional Climate System by Remote Sensing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bolle, H.-J.; Koslowsky, D.; Menenti, M.; Nerry, F.; Otterman, Joseph; Starr, D.

    1998-01-01

    Extensive areas in the Mediterranean region are subject to land degradation and desertification. The high variability of the coupling between the surface and the atmosphere affects the regional climate. Relevant surface characteristics, such as spectral reflectance, surface emissivity in the thermal-infrared region, and vegetation indices, serve as "primary" level indicators for the state of the surface. Their spatial, seasonal and interannual variability can be monitored from satellites. Using relationships between these primary data and combining them with prior information about the land surfaces (such as topography, dominant soil type, land use, collateral ground measurements and models), a second layer of information is built up which specifies the land surfaces as a component of the regional climate system. To this category of parameters which are directly involved in the exchange of energy, momentum and mass between the surface and the atmosphere, belong broadband albedo, thermodynamic surface temperature, vegetation types, vegetation cover density, soil top moisture, and soil heat flux. Information about these parameters finally leads to the computation of sensible and latent heat fluxes. The methodology was tested with pilot data sets. Full resolution, properly calibrated and normalized NOAA-AVHRR multi-annual primary data sets are presently compiled for the whole Mediterranean area, to study interannual variability and longer term trends.

  17. Regional Approach for Linking Ecosystem Services and Livelihood Strategies Under Climate Change of Pastoral Communities in the Mongolian Steppe Ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ojima, D. S.; Galvin, K.; Togtohyn, C.

    2012-12-01

    Dramatic changes due to climate and land use dynamics in the Mongolian Plateau affecting ecosystem services and agro-pastoral systems in Mongolia. Recently, market forces and development strategies are affecting land and water resources of the pastoral communities which are being further stressed due to climatic changes. Evaluation of pastoral systems, where humans depend on livestock and grassland ecosystem services, have demonstrated the vulnerability of the social-ecological system to climate change. Current social-ecological changes in ecosystem services are affecting land productivity and carrying capacity, land-atmosphere interactions, water resources, and livelihood strategies. The general trend involves greater intensification of resource exploitation at the expense of traditional patterns of extensive range utilization. Thus we expect climate-land use-land cover relationships to be crucially modified by the social-economic forces. The analysis incorporates information about the social-economic transitions taking place in the region which affect land-use, food security, and ecosystem dynamics. The region of study extends from the Mongolian plateau in Mongolia. Our research indicate that sustainability of pastoral systems in the region needs to integrate the impact of climate change on ecosystem services with socio-economic changes shaping the livelihood strategies of pastoral systems in the region. Adaptation strategies which incorporate integrated analysis of landscape management and livelihood strategies provides a framework which links ecosystem services to critical resource assets. Analysis of the available livelihood assets provides insights to the adaptive capacity of various agents in a region or in a community. Sustainable development pathways which enable the development of these adaptive capacity elements will lead to more effective adaptive management strategies for pastoral land use and herder's living standards. Pastoralists will have the

  18. Effects of Climate Change on Regional Crop Production in Eastern Pennsylvania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, S. T.; Mangan, J. M.

    2009-12-01

    Regional climate changes can significantly alter crop yields for agriculturally important areas. Berks County, PA, is an agrarian community whose crop production is typical of southeastern Pennsylvania, with corn as a major crop. Mean annual temperatures in Pennsylvania are predicted to increase by 4 degrees C and precipitation is expected to increase 5% by 2100. We examined changes in 20th Century Berks County crop yields, particularly corn, in response to yearly variations in temperature and precipitation. Crop yields for corn are predicted by models to increase up to a 29 degrees C threshold, beyond which yields will significantly decrease. This study quantifies the effects of recent climate change on Berks County crop production and predicts potential changes for the future. It is important to consider regional climate change effects if we are to fully understand the impacts of global change on food crop production. This study also incorporates anecdotal data from farmers to note their perceptions of crop productivity as related to environmental changes and to determine other factors that may affect farming practices and crop yields.

  19. Simulations of present and future climates in the western U.S. with four nested regional climate models

    SciTech Connect

    Duffy, P B; Arritt, R W; Coquard, J; Gutowski, W; Han, J; Iorio, J; Kim, J; Leung, L R; Roads, J; Zeledon, E

    2004-06-15

    We analyze simulations of present and future climates in the western U.S. performed with four regional climate models (RCMs) nested within two global ocean-atmosphere climate models. Our primary goal is to assess the range of regional climate responses to increased greenhouse gases in available RCM simulations. The four RCMs used different geographical domains, different increased greenhouse gas scenarios for future-climate simulations, and (in some cases) different lateral boundary conditions. For simulations of the present climate, we compare RCM results to observations and to results of the GCM that provided lateral boundary conditions to the RCM. For future-climate (increased greenhouse gas) simulations, we compare RCM results to each other and to results of the driving GCMs. When results are spatially averaged over the western U.S., we find that the results of each RCM closely follow those of the driving GCM in the same region, in both present and future climates. In present-climate simulations, the RCMs have biases in spatially-averaged simulated precipitation and near-surface temperature that seem to be very close to those of the driving GCMs. In future-climate simulations, the spatially-averaged RCM-projected responses in precipitation and near-surface temperature are also very close to those of the respective driving GCMs. Precipitation responses predicted by the RCMs are in many regions not statistically significant compared to interannual variability. Where the predicted precipitation responses are statistically significant, they are positive. The models agree that near-surface temperatures will increase, but do not agree on the spatial pattern of this increase. The four RCMs produce very different estimates of water content of snow in the present climate, and of the change in this water content in response to increased greenhouse gases.

  20. Relating Regional Arctic Sea Ice and climate extremes over Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ionita-Scholz, Monica; Grosfeld, Klaus; Lohmann, Gerrit; Scholz, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    The potential increase of temperature extremes under climate change is a major threat to society, as temperature extremes have a deep impact on environment, hydrology, agriculture, society and economy. Hence, the analysis of the mechanisms underlying their occurrence, including their relationships with the large-scale atmospheric circulation and sea ice concentration, is of major importance. At the same time, the decline in Arctic sea ice cover during the last 30 years has been widely documented and it is clear that this change is having profound impacts at regional as well as planetary scale. As such, this study aims to investigate the relation between the autumn regional sea ice concentration variability and cold winters in Europe, as identified by the numbers of cold nights (TN10p), cold days (TX10p), ice days (ID) and consecutive frost days (CFD). We analyze the relationship between Arctic sea ice variation in autumn (September-October-November) averaged over eight different Arctic regions (Barents/Kara Seas, Beaufort Sea, Chukchi/Bering Seas, Central Arctic, Greenland Sea, Labrador Sea/Baffin Bay, Laptev/East Siberian Seas and Northern Hemisphere) and variations in atmospheric circulation and climate extreme indices in the following winter season over Europe using composite map analysis. Based on the composite map analysis it is shown that the response of the winter extreme temperatures over Europe is highly correlated/connected to changes in Arctic sea ice variability. However, this signal is not symmetrical for the case of high and low sea ice years. Moreover, the response of temperatures extreme over Europe to sea ice variability over the different Arctic regions differs substantially. The regions which have the strongest impact on the extreme winter temperature over Europe are: Barents/Kara Seas, Beaufort Sea, Central Arctic and the Northern Hemisphere. For the years of high sea ice concentration in the Barents/Kara Seas there is a reduction in the number

  1. Using climate regionalization to understand Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) precipitation performance for the Conterminous United States (CONUS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Regonda, Satish K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Badr, Hamada S.; Rodell, Matthew

    2016-06-01

    Dynamically based seasonal forecasts are prone to systematic spatial biases due to imperfections in the underlying global climate model (GCM). This can result in low-forecast skill when the GCM misplaces teleconnections or fails to resolve geographic barriers, even if the prediction of large-scale dynamics is accurate. To characterize and address this issue, this study applies objective climate regionalization to identify discrepancies between the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) and precipitation observations across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Regionalization shows that CFSv2 1 month forecasts capture the general spatial character of warm season precipitation variability but that forecast regions systematically differ from observation in some transition zones. CFSv2 predictive skill for these misclassified areas is systematically reduced relative to correctly regionalized areas and CONUS as a whole. In these incorrectly regionalized areas, higher skill can be obtained by using a regional-scale forecast in place of the local grid cell prediction.

  2. Effects of lateral boundary condition resolution and update frequency on regional climate model predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pankatz, Klaus; Kerkweg, Astrid

    2015-04-01

    The work presented is part of the joint project "DecReg" ("Regional decadal predictability") which is in turn part of the project "MiKlip" ("Decadal predictions"), an effort funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research to improve decadal predictions on a global and regional scale. In MiKlip, one big question is if regional climate modeling shows "added value", i.e. to evaluate, if regional climate models (RCM) produce better results than the driving models. However, the scope of this study is to look more closely at the setup specific details of regional climate modeling. As regional models only simulate a small domain, they have to inherit information about the state of the atmosphere at their lateral boundaries from external data sets. There are many unresolved questions concerning the setup of lateral boundary conditions (LBC). External data sets come from global models or from global reanalysis data-sets. A temporal resolution of six hours is common for this kind of data. This is mainly due to the fact, that storage space is a limiting factor, especially for climate simulations. However, theoretically, the coupling frequency could be as high as the time step of the driving model. Meanwhile, it is unclear if a more frequent update of the LBCs has a significant effect on the climate in the domain of the RCM. The first study examines how the RCM reacts to a higher update frequency. The study is based on a 30 year time slice experiment for three update frequencies of the LBC, namely six hours, one hour and six minutes. The evaluation of means, standard deviations and statistics of the climate in the regional domain shows only small deviations, some statistically significant though, of 2m temperature, sea level pressure and precipitation. The second part of the first study assesses parameters linked to cyclone activity, which is affected by the LBC update frequency. Differences in track density and strength are found when comparing the simulations

  3. The Alpine snow-albedo feedback in regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winter, Kevin J.-P. M.; Kotlarski, Sven; Scherrer, Simon C.; Schär, Christoph

    2016-04-01

    The effect of the snow-albedo feedback (SAF) on 2m temperatures and their future changes in the European Alps is investigated in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) with a focus on the spring season. A total of 14 re-analysis-driven RCM experiments covering the period 1961-2000 and 10 GCM-driven transient climate change projections for 1950-2099 are analysed. A positive springtime SAF is found in all RCMs, but the range of the diagnosed SAF is large. Results are compared against an observation-based SAF estimate. For some RCMs, values very close to this estimate are found; other models show a considerable overestimation of the SAF. Net shortwave radiation has the largest influence of all components of the energy balance on the diagnosed SAF and can partly explain its spatial variability. Model deficiencies in reproducing 2m temperatures above snow and ice and associated cold temperature biases at high elevations seem to contribute to a SAF overestimation in several RCMs. The diagnosed SAF in the observational period strongly influences the estimated SAF contribution to twenty first century temperature changes in the European Alps. This contribution is subject to a clear elevation dependency that is governed by the elevation-dependent change in the number of snow days. Elevations of maximum SAF contribution range from 1500 to 2000 m in spring and are found above 2000 m in summer. Here, a SAF contribution to the total simulated temperature change between 0 and 0.5 °C until 2099 (multi-model mean in spring: 0.26 °C) or 0 and 14 % (multi-model mean in spring: 8 %) is obtained for models showing a realistic SAF. These numbers represent a well-funded but only approximate estimate of the SAF contribution to future warming, and a remaining contribution of model-specific SAF misrepresentations cannot be ruled out.

  4. The Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation Impact on Regional Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, Rolf; Valev, Dimitar; Atanassov, Atanas; Danov, Dimitar; Guineva, Veneta; Kirillov, Andrey S.

    2016-07-01

    The Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) shows a period of about 60-70 years. Over the time span from 1860 up to 2014 the AMO has had a strong climate impact on the Northern Hemisphere. The AMO is considered to be related to the Atlantic overturning circulation, but the origin of the oscillation is not fully understood up till now. To study the AMO impact on climate, the Hadcrut4, Crut4 and HadSST3 temperature data sets have been employed in the current study. The influence of the AMO on the zonal and meridional temperature distribution has been investigated in detail. The strongest zonal AMO impact was obtained in the Arctic region. The results indicated that the AMO influence on temperature at Southern latitudes was opposite in phase compared to the temperature influence in the Northern Hemisphere, in agreement with the well known heat transfer phenomenon from South to North Atlantic. In the Northern Hemisphere the strongest AMO temperature impact was found over the Atlantic and America. In the West from American continent, over the Pacific, the AMO impact was the lowest obtained over the whole Northern Hemisphere. The Rocky Mountains and Sierra Madre, connected with it southwards, built up an atmospheric circulation barrier preventing a strong propagation of the AMO temperature signal westerly. The amplitude of the AMO index itself was greater during summer-fall. However stronger AMO influence on the Northern Hemisphere temperatures was found during the fall-winter season, when the differences between the Northern Hemisphere temperatures and the temperatures in the tropics were the greatest.

  5. Regional climatic mapping as a tool for sustainable development.

    PubMed

    Katzschner, Lutz; Mülder, Jochen

    2008-04-01

    In the framework of an EU project on sustainable village development in China (SUCCESS), the natural climate resource was evaluated. Climate is seen as a potential for sustainability, an improvement of social life, agricultural production and reduction of air pollution problems. In this respect, thermal comfort conditions, microclimates and ventilation patterns were studied in seven Chinese villages and climate maps were drawn. Following planning recommendations, they can be transferred to decision-makers for their village development. In this framework, the paper presents a general methodology of urban climate mapping, carried out in China, applicable to all countries and climates.

  6. The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program, Climate Services, and Meeting the National Climate Change Adaptation Challenge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Udall, B.; Miles, E.; Dow, K.; Anderson, C.; Cayan, D.; Dettinger, M.; Hartmann, H.; Jones, J.; Mote, P.; Ray, A.; Shafer, M.; White, D.

    2008-12-01

    The NOAA-led RISA Program has grown steadily to nine regions and a focus that includes both natural climate variability and human-driven climate change. The RISAs are, at their core, university-based and heavily invested in partnerships, particularly with stakeholders, NOAA, and other federal agencies. RISA research, assessment and partnerships have led to new operational climate services within NOAA and other agencies, and have become important foundations in the development of local, state and regional climate change adaptation initiatives. The RISA experience indicates that a national climate service is needed, and must include: (1) services prioritized based on stakeholder needs; (2) sustained, ongoing regional interactions with users, (3) a commitment to improve climate literacy; (4) support for assessment as an ongoing, iterative process; (5) full recognition that stakeholder decisions are seldom made using climate information alone; (6) strong interagency partnership; (7) national implementation and regional in focus; (8) capability spanning local, state, tribal, regional, national and international space scales, and weeks to millennia time scales; and (9) institutional design and scientific support flexible enough to assure the effort is nimble enough to respond to rapidly-changing stakeholder needs. The RISA experience also highlights the central role that universities must play in national climate change adaptation programs. Universities have a tradition of trusted regional stakeholder partnerships, as well as the interdisciplinary expertise - including social science, ecosystem science, law, and economics - required to meet stakeholder climate-related needs; project workforce can also shift rapidly in universities. Universities have a proven ability to build and sustain interagency partnerships. Universities excel in most forms of education and training. And universities often have proven entrepreneurship, technology transfer and private sector

  7. Influence of feedbacks from simulated crop growth on integrated regional hydrologic simulations under climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Walsum, P. E. V.

    2011-11-01

    Climate change impact modelling of hydrologic responses is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. Reducing this dependency was one of the goals of extending the regional hydrologic modelling system SIMGRO with a two-way coupling to the crop growth simulation model WOFOST. The coupling includes feedbacks to the hydrologic model in terms of the root zone depth, soil cover, leaf area index, interception storage capacity, crop height and crop factor. For investigating whether such feedbacks lead to significantly different simulation results, two versions of the model coupling were set up for a test region: one with exogenous vegetation parameters, the "static" model, and one with endogenous simulation of the crop growth, the "dynamic" model WOFOST. The used parameterization methods of the static/dynamic vegetation models ensure that for the current climate the simulated long-term average of the actual evapotranspiration is the same for both models. Simulations were made for two climate scenarios. Owing to the higher temperatures in combination with a higher CO2-concentration of the atmosphere, a forward time shift of the crop development is simulated in the dynamic model; the used arable land crop, potatoes, also shows a shortening of the growing season. For this crop, a significant reduction of the potential transpiration is simulated compared to the static model, in the example by 15% in a warm, dry year. In consequence, the simulated crop water stress (the unit minus the relative transpiration) is lower when the dynamic model is used; also the simulated increase of crop water stress due to climate change is lower; in the example, the simulated increase is 15 percentage points less (of 55) than when a static model is used. The static/dynamic models also simulate different absolute values of the transpiration. The difference is most pronounced for potatoes at locations with ample moisture supply; this supply can either come from storage release of a

  8. Regional zooplankton biodiversity provides limited buffering of pond ecosystems against climate change.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Patrick L; Shurin, Jonathan B

    2012-01-01

    1. Climate change and other human-driven environmental perturbations are causing reductions in biodiversity and impacting the functioning of ecosystems on a global scale. Metacommunity theory suggests that ecosystem connectivity may reduce the magnitude of these impacts if the regional species pool contains functionally redundant species that differ in their environmental tolerances. Dispersal may increase the resistance of local ecosystems to environmental stress by providing regional species with traits adapted to novel conditions. 2. We tested this theory by subjecting freshwater zooplankton communities in mesocosms that were either connected to or isolated from the larger regional species pool to a factorial manipulation of experimental warming and increased salinity. 3. Compensation by regional taxa depended on the source of stress. Warming tolerant regional taxa partially compensated for reductions in heat sensitive local taxa but similar compensation did not occur under increased salinity. 4. Dispersal-mediated species invasions dampened the effects of warming on summer net ecosystem productivity. However, this buffering effect did not occur in the fall or for periphyton growth, the only other ecosystem function affected by the stress treatments. 5. The results indicate that regional biodiversity can provide insurance in a dynamic environment but that the buffering capacity is limited to some ecosystem processes and sources of stress. Maintaining regional biodiversity and habitat connectivity may therefore provide some limited insurance for local ecosystems in changing environments, but is unable to impart resistance against all sources of environmental stress.

  9. Climate services for adapting landslide hazard prevention measures in the Vrancea Seismic Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Micu, Dana; Balteanu, Dan; Jurchescu, Marta; Sima, Mihaela; Micu, Mihai

    2014-05-01

    The Vrancea Seismic Region is covering an area of about 8 000 km2 in the Romanian Curvature Carpathians and Subcarpathians and it is considered one of Europe's most intensely multi-hazard-affected areas. Due to its geomorphic traits (heterogeneous morphostructural units of flysch mountains and molasse hills and depressions), the area is strongly impacted by extreme hydro-meteorological events which are potentially enhancing the numerous damages inflicted to a dense network of human settlements. An a priori knowledge of future climate change is a useful climate service for local authorities to develop regional adapting strategies and adequate prevention/preparedness frameworks. This paper aims at integrating the results of the high-resolution climate projections over the 21st century (within the FP7 ECLISE project) into the regional landslide hazard assessment. The requirements of users (Civil Protection, Land management, local authorities) for this area refer to reliable and high-resolution spatial data on landslide and flood hazard for short and medium-term risk management strategies. An insight into the future behavior of climate variability in the Vrancea Seismic Region, based on future climate projections of three regional models, under three RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 8.6), suggests a clear warming, both annually and seasonally and a rather limited annual precipitation decrease, but with a strong change of seasonality. A landslide inventory of 2485 cases (shallow and medium seated earth, debris and rock slides and earth and debris flows) was obtained based on large scale geomorphological mapping and aerial photos support (GeoEye, DigitalGlobe; provided by GoogleEarth and BingMaps). The landslides are uniformly distributed across the area, being considered representative for the entire morphostructural environment. Landslide susceptibility map was obtained using multivariate statistical analysis (logistic regression), while a relative landslide hazard index was computed

  10. Scale dependence of the simulated impact of Amazonian deforestation on regional climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pitman, A. J.; Lorenz, R.

    2016-09-01

    Using a global climate model, Amazonian deforestation experiments are conducted perturbing 1, 9, 25, 81 and 121 grid points, each with 5 ensemble members. All experiments show warming and drying over Amazonia. The impact of deforestation on temperature, averaged either over the affected area or a wider area, decreases by a factor of two as the scale of the perturbation increases from 1 to 121 grid points. This is associated with changes in the surface energy balance and consequential impacts on the atmosphere above the regions deforested. For precipitation, as the scale of deforestation increases from 9 to 121 grid points, the reduction in rainfall over the perturbed area decreases from ˜1.5 to ˜1 mm d-1. However, if the surrounding area is considered and large deforestation perturbations made, compensatory increases in precipitation occur such that there is little net change. This is largely associated with changes in horizontal advection of moisture. Disagreements between climate model experiments on how Amazonian deforestation affects precipitation and temperature are, at least in part, due to the spatial scale of the region deforested, differences in the areas used to calculate averages and whether areas surrounding deforestation are included in the overall averages.

  11. IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIATION AND CHANGE ON MID-ATLANTIC REGION HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The sensitivity of hydrology and water resources to climate variation and climate change is assessed for the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) of the United States. Observed streamflow, groundwater, and water-quality data are shown to vary in association with climate variation. Projectio...

  12. Sensitivity of soil moisture initialization for decadal predictions under different regional climatic conditions in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khodayar, S.; Sehlinger, A.; Feldmann, H.; Kottmeier, C.

    2015-12-01

    The impact of soil initialization is investigated through perturbation simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. The focus of the investigation is to assess the sensitivity of simulated extreme periods, dry and wet, to soil moisture initialization in different climatic regions over Europe and to establish the necessary spin up time within the framework of decadal predictions for these regions. Sensitivity experiments consisted of a reference simulation from 1968 to 1999 and 5 simulations from 1972 to 1983. The Effective Drought Index (EDI) is used to select and quantify drought status in the reference run to establish the simulation time period for the sensitivity experiments. Different soil initialization procedures are investigated. The sensitivity of the decadal predictions to soil moisture initial conditions is investigated through the analysis of water cycle components' (WCC) variability. In an episodic time scale the local effects of soil moisture on the boundary-layer and the propagated effects on the large-scale dynamics are analysed. The results show: (a) COSMO-CLM reproduces the observed features of the drought index. (b) Soil moisture initialization exerts a relevant impact on WCC, e.g., precipitation distribution and intensity. (c) Regional characteristics strongly impact the response of the WCC. Precipitation and evapotranspiration deviations are larger for humid regions. (d) The initial soil conditions (wet/dry), the regional characteristics (humid/dry) and the annual period (wet/dry) play a key role in the time that soil needs to restore quasi-equilibrium and the impact on the atmospheric conditions. Humid areas, and for all regions, a humid initialization, exhibit shorter spin up times, also soil reacts more sensitive when initialised during dry periods. (e) The initial soil perturbation may markedly modify atmospheric pressure field, wind circulation systems and atmospheric water vapour distribution affecting atmospheric stability

  13. Extending Lkn Climate Regionalization with Spatial Regularization: AN Application to Epidemiological Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liss, Alexander; Gel, Yulia R.; Kulinkina, Alexandra; Naumova, Elena N.

    2016-06-01

    Regional climate is a critical factor in public health research, adaptation studies, climate change burden analysis, and decision support frameworks. Existing climate regionalization schemes are not well suited for these tasks as they rarely take population density into account. In this work, we are extending our recently developed method for automated climate regionalization (LKN-method) to incorporate the spatial features of target population. The LKN method consists of the data limiting step (L-step) to reduce dimensionality by applying principal component analysis, a classification step (K-step) to produce hierarchical candidate regions using k-means unsupervised classification algorithm, and a nomination step (N-step) to determine the number of candidate climate regions using cluster validity indexes. LKN method uses a comprehensive set of multiple satellite data streams, arranged as time series, and allows us to define homogeneous climate regions. The proposed approach extends the LKN method to include regularization terms reflecting the spatial distribution of target population. Such tailoring allows us to determine the optimal number and spatial distribution of climate regions and thus, to ensure more uniform population coverage across selected climate categories. We demonstrate how the extended LKN method produces climate regionalization can be better tailored to epidemiological research in the context of decision support framework.

  14. Past and future climate patterns affecting temperate, sub-tropical and tropical horticultural crop production

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Perennial horticultural crop production will be impacted by climate change effects on temperature, water availability, solar radiation, air pollution, and carbon dioxide. Horticultural crop value is derived from both the quantity and the quality of the harvested product; both of which are affected ...

  15. The Changing Climate Toward Occupational Regulation: How Does It Affect Cosmetology Board Members?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shimberg, Benjamin

    This document contains two letters. The first letter, which might have been written by a cosmetology licensing board member to his mother, illustrates the changing climate toward occupational regulations and how it might affect the attitudes of a board member. The second letter, the mother's reply, attempts to put some of the changes into a…

  16. Climate change and mortality in Vienna--a human biometeorological analysis based on regional climate modeling.

    PubMed

    Muthers, Stefan; Matzarakis, Andreas; Koch, Elisabeth

    2010-07-01

    The potential development of heat-related mortality in the 21th century for Vienna (Austria) was assessed by the use of two regional climate models based on the IPCC emissions scenarios A1B and B1. Heat stress was described with the human-biometeorological index PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature). Based on the relation between heat stress and mortality in 1970-2007, we developed two approaches to estimate the increases with and without long-term adaptation. Until 2011-2040 no significant changes will take place compared to 1970-2000, but in the following decades heat-related mortality could increase up to 129% until the end of the century, if no adaptation takes place. The strongest increase occurred due to extreme heat stress (PET >or= 41 degrees C). With long-term adaptation the increase is less pronounced, but still notable. This encourages the requirement for additional adaptation measurements. PMID:20717552

  17. Climate Change and Mortality in Vienna—A Human Biometeorological Analysis Based on Regional Climate Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Muthers, Stefan; Matzarakis, Andreas; Koch, Elisabeth

    2010-01-01

    The potential development of heat-related mortality in the 21th century for Vienna (Austria) was assessed by the use of two regional climate models based on the IPCC emissions scenarios A1B and B1. Heat stress was described with the human-biometeorological index PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature). Based on the relation between heat stress and mortality in 1970–2007, we developed two approaches to estimate the increases with and without long-term adaptation. Until 2011–2040 no significant changes will take place compared to 1970–2000, but in the following decades heat-related mortality could increase up to 129% until the end of the century, if no adaptation takes place. The strongest increase occurred due to extreme heat stress (PET ≥ 41 °C). With long-term adaptation the increase is less pronounced, but still notable. This encourages the requirement for additional adaptation measurements. PMID:20717552

  18. Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stenke, A.; Hoyle, C. R.; Luo, B.; Rozanov, E.; Gröbner, J.; Maag, L.; Brönnimann, S.; Peter, T.

    2013-10-01

    Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a different family of CCMs than previously used, to investigate the consequences of such a hypothetical nuclear conflict. In accordance with previous studies, the present work assumes a scenario of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, each applying 50 warheads with an individual blasting power of 15 kt ("Hiroshima size") against the major population centers, resulting in the emission of tiny soot particles, which are generated in the firestorms expected in the aftermath of the detonations. Substantial uncertainties related to the calculation of likely soot emissions, particularly concerning assumptions of target fuel loading and targeting of weapons, have been addressed by simulating several scenarios, with soot emissions ranging from 1 to 12 Tg. Their high absorptivity with respect to solar radiation leads to a rapid self-lofting of the soot particles into the strato- and mesosphere within a few days after emission, where they remain for several years. Consequently, the model suggests earth's surface temperatures to drop by several degrees Celsius due to the shielding of solar irradiance by the soot, indicating a major global cooling. In addition, there is a substantial reduction of precipitation lasting 5 to 10 yr after the conflict, depending on the magnitude of the initial soot release. Extreme cold spells associated with an increase in sea ice formation are found during Northern Hemisphere winter, which expose the continental land masses of North America and Eurasia to a

  19. Building America Best Practices Series: Volume 7.1: Guide to Determining Climate Regions by County

    SciTech Connect

    Baechler, Michael C.; Williamson, Jennifer L.; Gilbride, Theresa L.; Cole, Pamala C.; Hefty, Marye G.; Love, Pat M.

    2010-08-30

    This report for DOE's Building America program helps builders identify which Building America climate region they are building in. The guide includes maps comparing the Building America regions with climate designations used in the International Energy Conservation Code for Residential Buildings and lists all U.S. counties by climate zone. A very brief history of the development of the Building America climate map and descriptions of each climate zone are provided. This report is available on the Building America website www.buildingamerica.gov.

  20. Regional influence of climate patterns on the wave climate of the southwestern Pacific: The New Zealand region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Godoi, Victor A.; Bryan, Karin R.; Gorman, Richard M.

    2016-06-01

    This work investigates how the wave climate around New Zealand and the southwest Pacific is modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Zonal Wave-number-3 Pattern (ZW3), and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) during the period 1958-2001. Their respective climate indices were correlated with modeled mean wave parameters extracted from a 45 year (1957-2002) wave hindcast carried out with the WAVEWATCH III model using the wind and ice fields from the ERA-40 reanalysis project. The correlation was performed using the Pearson's correlation coefficient and the wavelet spectral analysis. Prior to that, mean annual and interannual variabilities and trends in significant wave height (Hs) were computed over 44 years (1958-2001). In general, higher annual and interannual variabilities were found along the coastline, in regions dominated by local winds. An increasing trend in Hs was found around the country, with values varying between 1 and 6 cm/decade at the shoreline. The greatest Hs trends were identified to the south of 48°S, suggesting a relationship with the positive trend in the SAM. Seasonal to decadal time scales of the SAM strongly influenced wave parameters throughout the period analyzed. In addition, larger waves were observed during extreme ENSO and IOD events at interannual time scale, while they were more evident at seasonal and intraseasonal time scales in the correlations with the ZW3. Negative phases of the ZW3 and ENSO and positive phases of the IOD, PDO, and SAM resulted in larger waves around most parts of New Zealand.

  1. Evidence for a physical linkage between galactic cosmic rays and regional climate time series

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, C.A.

    2007-01-01

    The effects of solar variability on regional climate time series were examined using a sequence of physical connections between total solar irradiance (TSI) modulated by galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), and ocean and atmospheric patterns that affect precipitation and streamflow. The solar energy reaching the Earth's surface and its oceans is thought to be controlled through an interaction between TSI and GCRs, which are theorized to ionize the atmosphere and increase cloud formation and its resultant albedo. High (low) GCR flux may promote cloudiness (clear skies) and higher (lower) albedo at the same time that TSI is lowest (highest) in the solar cycle which in turn creates cooler (warmer) ocean temperature anomalies. These anomalies have been shown to affect atmospheric flow patterns and ultimately affect precipitation over the Midwestern United States. This investigation identified a relation among TSI and geomagnetic index aa (GI-AA), and streamflow in the Mississippi River Basin for the period 1878-2004. The GI-AA was used as a proxy for GCRs. The lag time between the solar signal and streamflow in the Mississippi River at St. Louis, Missouri is approximately 34 years. The current drought (1999-2007) in the Mississippi River Basin appears to be caused by a period of lower solar activity that occurred between 1963 and 1977. There appears to be a solar "fingerprint" that can be detected in climatic time series in other regions of the world, with each series having a unique lag time between the solar signal and the hydroclimatic response. A progression of increasing lag times can be spatially linked to the ocean conveyor belt, which may transport the solar signal over a time span of several decades. The lag times for any one region vary slightly and may be linked to the fluctuations in the velocity of the ocean conveyor belt.

  2. Regional climatic effects of atmospheric SO2 on Mars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Postawko, S. E.; Fanale, F. P.

    1992-01-01

    The conditions under which the valley networks on Mars may have formed remains controversial. The magnitude of an atmospheric greenhouse effect by an early massive CO2 atmosphere has recently been questioned by Kasting. Recent calculations indicate that if solar luminosity were less than about 86 percent of its current value, formation of CO2 clouds in the Martian atmosphere would depress the atmospheric lapse rate and reduce the magnitude of surface warming. In light of recent revisions of magma generation on Mars during each Martian epoch, and the suggestions by Wanke et al. that the role of liquid SO2 should be more carefully explored, we have recalculated the potential greenhouse warming by atmospheric SO2 on Mars, with an emphasis on more localized effects. In the vicinity of an active eruption, the concentration of atmospheric SO2 will be higher than if it is assumed that the erupted SO2 is instantaneously globally distributed. The local steady-state concentration of SO2 is a function of the rate at which it is released, its atmospheric lifetime, and the rate at which local winds act to disperse the SO2. We have made estimates of eruption rates, length of eruption, and dispersion rates of volcanically released SO2, for a variety of atmospheric conditions and atmospheric lifetimes of SO2 to explore the maximum regional climatic effect of SO2.

  3. Anthropogenic forcings and climate change in the northern Pacific region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Jing; Saito, Hiroaki; Ju, Se-Jong

    2012-04-01

    5th China-Japan-Korea IMBER Symposium and Training; Shanghai, China, 22-25 November 2011 This past November, scientists from China, Japan, and Korea gathered in Shanghai to share and discuss their latest achievements from the international Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research (IMBER) project. The symposium focused on the impact of climate change and anthropogenic forcings on physical processes and biogeochemical cycles, ecosystem structure and functions, and fisheries in the northwestern Pacific region and how these complex interactions, in turn, influence marine ecosystems and human society. Scientists from China, Japan, and Korea have been working actively in the areas of Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics (GLOBEC) and IMBER science since the early 1990s. Since 2002 the biennial China- Japan-Korea GLOBEC-IMBER symposia have provided scientists from these countries with the opportunity to collaborate and exchange and compare their research in the northwestern Pacific and marginal seas. Following the GLOBEC-IMBER merger in 2010, the IMBER community decided to continue organizing these symposia.

  4. Effects of crop growth and development on regional climate: a case study over East Asian monsoon area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Feng; Xie, Zhenghui

    2012-06-01

    In this study, the CERES phenological growth and development functions were implemented into the regional climate model, RegCM3 to give a model denoted as RegCM3_CERES. This model was used to represent interactions between regional climate and crop growth processes. The effects of crop growth and development processes on regional climate were then studied based on two 20-year simulations over the East Asian monsoon area conducted using the original regional climate model RegCM3, and the coupled RegCM3_CERES model. The numerical experiments revealed that incorporating the crop growth and development processes into the regional climate model reduced the root mean squared error of the simulated precipitation by 2.2-10.7% over north China, and the simulated temperature by 5.5-30.9% over the monsoon region in eastern China. Comparison of the simulated results obtained using RegCM3_CERES and RegCM3 showed that the most significant changes associated with crop modeling were the changes in leaf area index which in turn modify the aspects of surface energy and water partitions and lead to moderate changes in surface temperature and, to some extent, rainfall. Further analysis revealed that a robust representation of seasonal changes in plant growth and developmental processes in the regional climate model changed the surface heat and moisture fluxes by modifying the vegetation characteristics, and that these differences in simulated surface fluxes resulted in different structures of the boundary layer and ultimately affected the convection. The variations in leaf area index and fractional vegetation cover changed the distribution of evapotranspiration and heat fluxes, which could potentially lead to anomalies in geopotential height, and consequently influenced the overlying atmospheric circulation. These changes would result in redistribution of the water and energy through advection. Nevertheless, there are significant uncertainties in modeling how monsoon dynamics responds

  5. Regional Climate Models Downscaling in the Alpine Area with Multimodel SuperEnsemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cane, D.; Barbarino, S.; Renier, L.; Ronchi, C.

    2012-04-01

    The climatic scenarios show a strong signal of warming in the Alpine area already for the mid XXI century. The climate simulation, however, even when obtained with Regional Climate Models (RCMs), are affected by strong errors where compared with observations in the control period, due to their difficulties in representing the complex orography of the Alps and limitations in their physical parametrization. In this work we use a selection of RCMs runs from the ENSEMBLES project, carefully chosen in order to maximise the variety of leading Global Climate Models and of the RCMs themselves, calculated on the SRES scenario A1B. The reference observation for the Greater Alpine Area are extracted from the European dataset E-OBS produced by the project ENSEMBLES with an available resolution of 25 km. For the study area of Piemonte daily temperature and precipitation observations (1957-present) were carefully gridded on a 14-km grid over Piemonte Region with an Optimal Interpolation technique. We applied the Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique to temperature fields, reducing the high biases of RCMs temperature field compared to observations in the control period. We propose also the first application to RCMs of a brand new probabilistic Multimodel SuperEnsemble Dressing technique to estimate precipitation fields, already applied successfully to weather forecast models, with careful description of precipitation Probability Density Functions conditioned to the model outputs. This technique reduces the strong precipitation overestimation by RCMs over the alpine chain and reproduces the monthly behaviour of observed precipitation in the control period far better than the direct model outputs.

  6. GCM Hindcasts for SST Forced Climate Variability over Agriculturally Intensive Regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Shah, Kathryn P.; Chandler, Mark A.; Rind, David

    1998-01-01

    The ability to forecast seasonal climate is of great practical interest. One of the most obvious benefits would be agriculture, for which various preparations (planting, machinery, irrigation, manpower) would be enabled. The expectation of being able to make such forecasts far enough in advance (on the order of 9 months) hinges on components of the system with the longest persistence or predictability. The mixed results of El Nino forecasts has raised the hope that tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) fall into this category. For agriculturally-relevant forecasts to be made, and utilized, requires several conditions. The SST in the regions that affect agricultural areas must be forecast successfully, many months in advance. The climate response to such sea surface temperatures must then be ascertained, either through the use of historical empirical studies or models (e.g., GCMS). For practical applications, the agricultural production must be strongly influenced by climate, and farmers on either the local level or through commercial concerns must be able to adjust to using such forecasts. In a continuing series of papers, we will explore each of these components. This article concerns the question of utilizing SST to forecast the climate in several regions of agricultural production. We optimize the possibility of doing so successfully by using observed SST in a hindcast mode (i.e., a perfect forecast), and we also use the globally observed values (rather than just those from the tropical Pacific, for which predictability has been shown). This then is the ideal situation; in subsequent papers we will explore degrading the results by using only tropical Pacific SSTs, and then using only

  7. The United States National Climate Assessment - Alaska Technical Regional Report

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Markon, Carl J.; Trainor, Sarah F.; Chapin, F. Stuart; Markon, Carl J.; Trainor, Sarah F.; Chapin, F. Stuart

    2012-01-01

    The Alaskan landscape is changing, both in terms of effects of human activities as a consequence of increased population, social and economic development and their effects on the local and broad landscape; and those effects that accompany naturally occurring hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and tsunamis. Some of the most prevalent changes, however, are those resulting from a changing climate, with both near term and potential upcoming effects expected to continue into the future. Alaska's average annual statewide temperatures have increased by nearly 4°F from 1949 to 2005, with significant spatial variability due to the large latitudinal and longitudinal expanse of the State. Increases in mean annual temperature have been greatest in the interior region, and smallest in the State's southwest coastal regions. In general, however, trends point toward increases in both minimum temperatures, and in fewer extreme cold days. Trends in precipitation are somewhat similar to those in temperature, but with more variability. On the whole, Alaska saw a 10-percent increase in precipitation from 1949 to 2005, with the greatest increases recorded in winter. The National Climate Assessment has designated two well-established scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Nakicenovic and others, 2001) as a minimum set that technical and author teams considered as context in preparing portions of this assessment. These two scenarios are referred to as the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios, which assume either a continuation of recent trends in fossil fuel use (A2) or a vigorous global effort to reduce fossil fuel use (B1). Temperature increases from 4 to 22°F are predicted (to 2070-2099) depending on which emissions scenario (A2 or B1) is used with the least warming in southeast Alaska and the greatest in the northwest. Concomitant with temperature changes, by the end of the 21st century the growing season is expected

  8. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Overview of Phase I Results

    SciTech Connect

    Mearns, L. O.; Arritt, R.; Biner, S.; Bukovsky, Melissa; McGinnis, Seth; Sain, Steve; Caya, Daniel; Correia Jr., James; Flory, Dave; Gutowski, William; Takle, Gene; Jones, Richard; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; McDaniel, Larry; Nunes, A.; Qian, Yun; Roads, J.; Sloan, Lisa; Snyder, Mark A.

    2012-09-20

    The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program is an international effort designed to systematically investigate the uncertainties in regional scale projections of future climate and produce high resolution climate change scenarios using multiple regional climate models (RCMs) nested within atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) forced with the A2 SRES scenario, with a common domain covering the conterminous US, northern Mexico, and most of Canada. The program also includes an evaluation component (Phase I) wherein the participating RCMs are nested within 25 years of NCEP/DOE global reanalysis II. The grid spacing of the RCM simulations is 50 km.

  9. REGIONAL COORDINATION OF NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE SERVICES IN THE WEST (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bair, A.

    2009-12-01

    The climate services program is an important component in the National Weather Service’s (NWS) mission, and is one of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) top five priorities. The Western Region NWS started building a regional and local climate services program in late 2001, with input from local NWS offices and key partners. The original goals of the Western Region climate services program were to strive to provide climate services that were useful, easily accessible, well understood, coordinated and supported by partners, and reflect customer needs. While the program has evolved, and lessons have been learned, these goals are still guiding the program. Regional and local level Climate Services are a fundamental part of NOAA/NWS’s current and future role in providing climate services. There is an ever growing demand for climate information and services to aid the public in decision-making and no single entity alone can provide the range of information and services needed. Coordination and building strong partnerships at the local and regional levels is the key to providing optimal climate services. Over the past 8 years, Western Region NWS has embarked on numerous coordination efforts to build the regional and local climate services programs, such as: collaboration (both internally and externally to NOAA) meetings and projects, internal staff training, surveys, and outreach efforts. In order to gain regional and local buy-in from the NWS staff, multiple committees were utilized to plan and develop goals and structure for the program. While the regional and local climate services program in the NWS Western Region has had many successes, there have been several important lessons learned from efforts that have not been as successful. These lessons, along with past experience, close coordination with partners, and the need to constantly improve/change the program as the climate changes, form the basis for future program development and

  10. Is land surface processes representation a possible weak link in current Regional Climate Models?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davin, Edouard L.; Maisonnave, Eric; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2016-07-01

    The representation of land surface processes and fluxes in climate models critically affects the simulation of near-surface climate over land. Here we present an evaluation of COSMO-CLM2, a model which couples the COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model to the Community Land Model (CLM4.0). CLM4.0 provides a more detailed representation of land processes compared to the native land surface scheme in COSMO-CLM. We perform historical reanalysis-driven simulations over Europe with COSMO-CLM2 following the EURO-CORDEX intercomparison protocol. We then evaluate simulations performed with COSMO-CLM2, the standard COSMO-CLM and other EURO-CORDEX RCMs against various observational datasets of temperature, precipitation and surface fluxes. Overall, the results indicate that COSMO-CLM2 outperforms both the standard COSMO-CLM and the other EURO-CORDEX models in simulating sensible, latent and surface radiative fluxes as well as 2-meter temperature across different seasons and regions. The performance improvement is particularly strong for turbulent fluxes and for daily maximum temperatures and more modest for daily minimum temperature, suggesting that land surface processes affect daytime even more than nighttime conditions. COSMO-CLM2 also alleviates a long-standing issue of overestimation of interannual summer temperature variability present in most EURO-CORDEX RCMs. Finally, we show that several factors contribute to these improvements, including the representation of evapotranspiration, radiative fluxes and ground heat flux. Overall, these results demonstrate that land processes represent a key area of development to tackle current deficiencies in RCMs.

  11. Climate change induced rainfall patterns affect wheat productivity and agroecosystem functioning dependent on soil types

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tabi Tataw, James; Baier, Fabian; Krottenthaler, Florian; Pachler, Bernadette; Schwaiger, Elisabeth; Whylidal, Stefan; Formayer, Herbert; Hösch, Johannes; Baumgarten, Andreas; Zaller, Johann G.

    2014-05-01

    Wheat is a crop of global importance supplying more than half of the world's population with carbohydrates. We examined, whether climate change induced rainfall patterns towards less frequent but heavier events alter wheat agroecosystem productivity and functioning under three different soil types. Therefore, in a full-factorial experiment Triticum aestivum L. was cultivated in 3 m2 lysimeter plots containing the soil types sandy calcaric phaeozem, gleyic phaeozem or calcic chernozem. Prognosticated rainfall patterns based on regionalised climate change model calculations were compared with current long-term rainfall patterns; each treatment combination was replicated three times. Future rainfall patterns significantly reduced wheat growth and yield, reduced the leaf area index, accelerated crop development, reduced arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi colonisation of roots, increased weed density and the stable carbon isotope signature (δ13C) of both old and young wheat leaves. Different soil types affected wheat growth and yield, ecosystem root production as well as weed abundance and biomass. The interaction between climate and soil type was significant only for the harvest index. Our results suggest that even slight changes in rainfall patterns can significantly affect the functioning of wheat agroecosystems. These rainfall effects seemed to be little influenced by soil types suggesting more general impacts of climate change across different soil types. Wheat production under future conditions will likely become more challenging as further concurrent climate change factors become prevalent.

  12. Infestation dynamics of Brevipalpus phoenicis (Geijskes) (Acari: Tenuipalpidae) in citrus orchards as affected by edaphic and climatic variables.

    PubMed

    Laranjeira, Francisco Ferraz; Silva, Suely Xavier de Brito; de Andrade, Eduardo Chumbinho; Almeida, Décio de Oliveira; da Silva, Tibério Santos Martins; Soares, Ana Cristina Fermino; Freitas-Astúa, Juliana

    2015-08-01

    Brevipalpus phoenicis (Geijskes) is a cosmopolitan and polyphagous mite that transmits important phytoviruses, such as coffee ringspot virus, passion fruit green spot virus and Citrus leprosis virus C. To characterise the dynamics of the probability and the rate of B. phoenicis infestation in response to edaphic and climatic factors, monthly inspections were performed in nine orchards in a citrus region of the State of Bahia, Brazil, for 35 months. Three fruits per plant were examined using a magnifying glass (10×) on 21 plants distributed along a "W"-shaped path in each orchard. Meteorological data were collected from a conventional station. To determine the correlations among the climatic variables, the data were analysed using Spearman correlations. Variables were selected by principal component analysis, and those that contributed the most to differentiate the groups were evaluated via a Mann-Whitney test. Using the quantile-quantile method, the limit values for the following climatic variables were determined: temperature (24.5 °C), photoperiod (12 h), relative humidity (83%), evapotranspiration (71 mm) and rainy days (14 days). The combination of longer days, higher temperatures, lower relative humidity levels and lower evapotranspiration increased the probability of B. phoenicis infestation, whereas successive rain events decreased that risk. Infestation rates were negatively affected by relative humidity levels above 83% and were positively affected by a decreasing available soil-water fraction and increasing insolation and photoperiod.

  13. Infestation dynamics of Brevipalpus phoenicis (Geijskes) (Acari: Tenuipalpidae) in citrus orchards as affected by edaphic and climatic variables.

    PubMed

    Laranjeira, Francisco Ferraz; Silva, Suely Xavier de Brito; de Andrade, Eduardo Chumbinho; Almeida, Décio de Oliveira; da Silva, Tibério Santos Martins; Soares, Ana Cristina Fermino; Freitas-Astúa, Juliana

    2015-08-01

    Brevipalpus phoenicis (Geijskes) is a cosmopolitan and polyphagous mite that transmits important phytoviruses, such as coffee ringspot virus, passion fruit green spot virus and Citrus leprosis virus C. To characterise the dynamics of the probability and the rate of B. phoenicis infestation in response to edaphic and climatic factors, monthly inspections were performed in nine orchards in a citrus region of the State of Bahia, Brazil, for 35 months. Three fruits per plant were examined using a magnifying glass (10×) on 21 plants distributed along a "W"-shaped path in each orchard. Meteorological data were collected from a conventional station. To determine the correlations among the climatic variables, the data were analysed using Spearman correlations. Variables were selected by principal component analysis, and those that contributed the most to differentiate the groups were evaluated via a Mann-Whitney test. Using the quantile-quantile method, the limit values for the following climatic variables were determined: temperature (24.5 °C), photoperiod (12 h), relative humidity (83%), evapotranspiration (71 mm) and rainy days (14 days). The combination of longer days, higher temperatures, lower relative humidity levels and lower evapotranspiration increased the probability of B. phoenicis infestation, whereas successive rain events decreased that risk. Infestation rates were negatively affected by relative humidity levels above 83% and were positively affected by a decreasing available soil-water fraction and increasing insolation and photoperiod. PMID:26021609

  14. Reconstructing regional climate networks from irregularly sampled satellite data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiedermann, Marc; Donner, Reik V.; Sykioti, Olga; Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Kurths, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    With the increasing availability of remote sensing data Earth System Analysis has taken a great step forward. Satellite data with high resolution in time and space allow for an in-depth analysis of small-scale processes in the climate as well as ecosystems. This data type, however, also harbors crucial conceptual complications. First, depending on whether the satellite is orbiting on an ascending or descending path systematic biases are induced into the dataset and both measurements can not be evaluated simultaneously without an appropriate preprocessing. Second, remote sensing data are usually not produced with equidistant temporal sampling, but might contain huge gaps, due to cloud cover or maintenance work and irregular time steps, due to the orbiting time of the satellite. In this work, we utilize sea surface temperature (SST) data obtained from the SMOS satellite as part of ESA's Earth Explorer Mission to study small-scale regional interactions between different parts of the Mediterranean, Aegean and Black Sea. In a first step, we create homogeneous time series for each grid point by combining data from ascending and descending satellite paths by utilizing principal component and singular spectrum analysis. To address the issue of irregular temporal sampling we utilize a kernel weighted version of the linear cross-correlation function to compute lagged correlations between all pairs of grid points in the dataset. By setting a threshold to the thus obtained correlation matrix we obtain a binary matrix which can be interpreted as the adjacency matrix of a complex network. We then use tools from complex network theory to study regional interdependencies in the study area for different time lags of up to forty days. We find that the obtained networks represent well the observed average wind directions and speeds and display interaction structures between small regions in the Aegean Sea, which are in good agreement with earlier observations. The methods presented

  15. Linking the uncertainty of low frequency variability in tropical forcing in regional climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Forest, Chris E.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Li, Wei

    2015-02-20

    The project utilizes multiple atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) to examine the regional climate sensitivity to tropical sea surface temperature forcing through a series of ensemble experiments. The overall goal for this work is to use the global teleconnection operator (GTO) as a metric to assess the impact of model structural differences on the uncertainties in regional climate variability.

  16. CLIMATE IMPACTS ON NUTRIENT FLUXES IN STREAM FLOW IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    EPA Science Inventory

    As part of a national assessment process, researchers of the Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment (MARA) are studying the impacts of climate variation and change on the natural and social systems of the Mid-Atlantic Region. This poster presents research investigating climate impacts ...

  17. Climate Change Affects Winter Chill for Temperate Fruit and Nut Trees

    PubMed Central

    Luedeling, Eike; Girvetz, Evan H.; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Brown, Patrick H.

    2011-01-01

    Background Temperate fruit and nut trees require adequate winter chill to produce economically viable yields. Global warming has the potential to reduce available winter chill and greatly impact crop yields. Methodology/Principal Findings We estimated winter chill for two past (1975 and 2000) and 18 future scenarios (mid and end 21st century; 3 Global Climate Models [GCMs]; 3 greenhouse gas emissions [GHG] scenarios). For 4,293 weather stations around the world and GCM projections, Safe Winter Chill (SWC), the amount of winter chill that is exceeded in 90% of all years, was estimated for all scenarios using the “Dynamic Model” and interpolated globally. We found that SWC ranged between 0 and about 170 Chill Portions (CP) for all climate scenarios, but that the global distribution varied across scenarios. Warm regions are likely to experience severe reductions in available winter chill, potentially threatening production there. In contrast, SWC in most temperate growing regions is likely to remain relatively unchanged, and cold regions may even see an increase in SWC. Climate change impacts on SWC differed quantitatively among GCMs and GHG scenarios, with the highest GHG leading to losses up to 40 CP in warm regions, compared to 20 CP for the lowest GHG. Conclusions/Significance The extent of projected changes in winter chill in many major growing regions of fruits and nuts indicates that growers of these commodities will likely experience problems in the future. Mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can help reduce the impacts, however, adaption to changes will have to occur. To better prepare for likely impacts of climate change, efforts should be undertaken to breed tree cultivars for lower chilling requirements, to develop tools to cope with insufficient winter chill, and to better understand the temperature responses of tree crops. PMID:21629649

  18. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Great Lakes Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wuebbles, D. J.; Hayhoe, K.; Cherkauer, K.

    2008-12-01

    Climate-driven changes in temperature and precipitation are projected to affect many aspects of water resources. Here, we provide examples of several case studies demonstrating the potential effects of climate change on soil moisture, river and stream flow, and lake levels in the Great Lakes and the Midwest. Using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) large-scale hydrology model and the NOAA/GLERL Great Lakes basin model driven by gridded historical meteorology and statistically downscaled future global climate model projections, simulations of future changes under IPCC emissions scenarios were conducted. Runoff and baseflow are routed to produce streamflow and inputs to the Great Lakes, which are analyzed to identify potential future trends in streamflow characteristics and lake inputs. Additionally, the VIC model with lake and wetland algorithm was also run to study trends in lake ice phenology for Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. In general, we find that warming has been reducing the duration of ice cover on regional lakes in the last 50 years, and based on the future projections many lakes, especially in the southern parts of these states will be essentially ice-free by the end of the century. Under lower emissions over most of this century, competing effects suggest no net changes in Great Lake levels. Under higher emissions, however, the effects of greater temperature increases are projected to begin to dominate over the longer term, leading to lake level decreases of one to three feet before the end of the century.

  19. Causal Chains Arising from Climate Change in Mountain Regions: the Core Program of the Mountain Research Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Greenwood, G. B.

    2014-12-01

    Mountains are a widespread terrestrial feature, covering from 12 to 24 percent of the world's terrestrial surface, depending of the definition. Topographic relief is central to the definition of mountains, to the benefits and costs accruing to society and to the cascade of changes expected from climate change. Mountains capture and store water, particularly important in arid regions and in all areas for energy production. In temperate and boreal regions, mountains have a great range in population densities, from empty to urban, while tropical mountains are often densely settled and farmed. Mountain regions contain a wide range of habitats, important for biodiversity, and for primary, secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy. Climate change interacts with this relief and consequent diversity. Elevation itself may accentuate warming (elevationi dependent warming) in some mountain regions. Even average warming starts complex chains of causality that reverberate through the diverse social ecological mountain systems affecting both the highlands and adjacent lowlands. A single feature of climate change such as higher snow lines affect the climate through albedo, the water cycle through changes in timing of release , water quality through the weathering of newly exposed material, geomorphology through enhanced erosion, plant communities through changes in climatic water balance, and animal and human communities through changes in habitat conditions and resource availabilities. Understanding these causal changes presents a particular interdisciplinary challenge to researchers, from assessing the existence and magnitude of elevation dependent warming and monitoring the full suite of changes within the social ecological system to climate change, to understanding how social ecological systems respond through individual and institutional behavior with repercussions on the long-term sustainability of these systems.

  20. High and dry: high elevations disproportionately exposed to regional climate change in Mediterranean-climate landscapes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCullough, Ian M.; Davis, Frank W.; Dingman, John R.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Moritz, Max A.; Hannah, Lee; Franklin, Janet

    2016-01-01

    In moisture-limited, Mediterranean-climate landscapes, high elevations may experience the greatest exposure to climate change in the 21st century. High elevation species may thus be especially vulnerable to continued climate change as habitats shrink and historically energy-limited locations become increasingly moisture-limited in the future.

  1. Impact of anthropogenic aerosols on regional climate change in Beijing, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, B.; Liou, K. N.; He, C.; Lee, W. L.; Gu, Y.; Li, Q.; Leung, L. R.

    2015-12-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols affect regional climate significantly through radiative (direct and semi-direct) and indirect effects, but the magnitude of these effects over megacities are subject to large uncertainty. In this study, we evaluated the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on regional climate change in Beijing, China using the online-coupled Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry Model (WRF/Chem) with the Fu-Liou-Gu radiation scheme and a spatial resolution of 4km. We further updated this radiation scheme with a geometric-optics surface-wave (GOS) approach for the computation of light absorption and scattering by black carbon (BC) particles in which aggregation shape and internal mixing properties are accounted for. In addition, we incorporated in WRF/Chem a 3D radiative transfer parameterization in conjunction with high-resolution digital data for city buildings and landscape to improve the simulation of boundary-layer, surface solar fluxes and associated sensible/latent heat fluxes. Preliminary simulated meteorological parameters, fine particles (PM2.5) and their chemical components agree well with observational data in terms of both magnitude and spatio-temporal variations. The effects of anthropogenic aerosols, including BC, on radiative forcing, surface temperature, wind speed, humidity, cloud water path, and precipitation are quantified on the basis of simulation results. With several preliminary sensitivity runs, we found that meteorological parameters and aerosol radiative effects simulated with the incorporation of improved BC absorption and 3-D radiation parameterizations deviate substantially from simulation results using the conventional homogeneous/core-shell configuration for BC and the plane-parallel model for radiative transfer. Understanding of the aerosol effects on regional climate change over megacities must consider the complex shape and mixing state of aerosol aggregates and 3D radiative transfer effects over city landscape.

  2. Evaluation of multiple regional climate models for summer climate extremes over East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Changyong; Min, Seung-Ki; Lee, Donghyun; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Hong, Song-You; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Baek, Hee-Jeong; Boo, Kyung-On; Kwon, Won-Tae

    2016-04-01

    In this study, five regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the CORDEX-East Asia project (HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, SNU-MM5, SNU-WRF, and YSU-RSM) are evaluated in terms of their performances in simulating the climatology of summer extremes in East Asia. Seasonal maxima of daily mean temperature and precipitation are analyzed using the generalized extreme value method. RCMs show systematic bias patterns in both seasonal means and extremes. A cold bias is located along the coast, whereas a warm bias occurs in northern China. Overall, wet bias occurs in East Asia, but with a substantial dry bias centered in South Korea. This dry bias appears to be related to the colder ocean surface around South Korea, positioning the monsoonal front further south compared to observations. Taylor diagram analyses reveal that the models simulate temperature means more accurately compared to extremes because of the higher spatial correlation, whereas precipitation extremes are simulated better than their means because of the higher spatial variability. The latter implies that extreme rainfall events can be captured more accurately by RCMs compared to the driving GCM despite poorer simulation of mean rainfall. Inter-RCM analysis indicates a close relationship between the means and extremes in terms of model skills, but it does not show a clear relationship between temperature and precipitation. Sub-regional analysis largely supports the mean-extreme skill relationship. Analyses of frequency and intensity distributions of daily data for three selected sub-regions suggest that overall shifts of temperature distribution and biases in moderate-heavy precipitations contribute importantly to the seasonal mean biases.

  3. Climate extremes and the carbon cycle - a review using an integrated approach with regional examples for forests & native ecosystems -

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frank, D.; Reichstein, M.; Bahn, M.; Beer, C.; Ciais, P.; Mahecha, M.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Smith, P.; van Oijen, M.; Walz, A.

    2012-04-01

    The terrestrial carbon cycle provides an important biogeochemical feedback to climate and is itself particularly susceptible to extreme climate events. Climate extremes can override any (positive) effects of mean climate change as shown in European and recent US-American heat waves and dry spells. They can impact the structure, composition, and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems and have the potential to cause rapid carbon losses from accumulated stocks. We review how climate extremes like severe droughts, heat waves, extreme precipitation or storms can cause direct impacts on the CO2 fluxes [e.g. due to extreme temperature and/ or drought events] as well as lagged impacts on the carbon cycle [e.g. via an increased fire risk, or disease outbreaks and pest invasions]. The relative impact of the different climate extremes varies according to climate region and vegetation type. We present lagged effects on plant growth (and mortality) in the year(s) following an extreme event and their impacts on the carbon sequestration of forests and natural ecosystems. Comprehensive regional or even continental quantification with regard to extreme events is missing, and especially compound extreme events, the role of lagged effects and aspects of the return frequency are not studied enough. In a case study of a Mediterranean ecosystem we illustrate that the response of the net carbon balance at ecosystem level to regional climate change is hard to predict as interacting and partly compensating processes are affected and several processes which have the ability to substantially alter the carbon balance are not or not sufficiently represented in state-of-the-art biogeochemical models.

  4. The climate of the Iberian Peninsula during the last five centuries from a regional climate model perspective.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomez-Navarro, J. J.; Montavez, J. P.; Jerez, S.; Garcia-Valero, J. A.; Jimenez-Guerrero, P.; Zorita, E.; Gonzalez-Rouco, J. F.

    2009-09-01

    During the last years the use of paleoclimate simulations with models of different complexity has become an usual tool in paleoclimate studies. Progress in understanding climate variability leans on simulation and reconstruction efforts. Exercises blending both approaches present a great potential for answering questions relevant for both the simulation and reconstruction of past climate, and depend on the specific peculiarities of proxies and methods involved in climate reconstructions, as well as on the realism and limitations of model simulations. Most of paleoclimate integrations available in the literature covering the last millennium have been performed with relative rough resolution which does not allow to analyze regional climate features that can be of interest in the context of proxies evidence. In this work we present a new high resolution (30 km) regional climate simulation over the Iberian Peninsula of the last five. The regional simulations were performed with a climate version of the MM5 model coupled to the Noah LSM. The driving conditions used follow the Erik1 experiment, performed with the ECHO-G global circulation model. The results indicate that the seasonal modes of variation for near surface air temperature and precipitation obtained within the regional paleoclimate experiment are consistent with the obtained using the observational databases and equivalent to regional climate integrations driven by reanalysis data. On the other hand, the main modes of variation show strong signals in historical periods such as the Maunder and Dalton Minimum. Finally, some preliminary comparisons between the global and the regional model against reconstructions are also reported in this contribution.

  5. Climate Risk and Vulnerability in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico Region: Interactions with Spatial Population and Land Cover Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, R. S.; Levy, M.; Baptista, S.; Adamo, S.

    2010-12-01

    Vulnerability to climate variability and change will depend on dynamic interactions between different aspects of climate, land-use change, and socioeconomic trends. Measurements and projections of these changes are difficult at the local scale but necessary for effective planning. New data sources and methods make it possible to assess land-use and socioeconomic changes that may affect future patterns of climate vulnerability. In this paper we report on new time series data sets that reveal trends in the spatial patterns of climate vulnerability in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico Region. Specifically, we examine spatial time series data for human population over the period 1990-2000, time series data on land use and land cover over 2000-2009, and infant mortality rates as a proxy for poverty for 2000-2008. We compare the spatial trends for these measures to the distribution of climate-related natural disaster risk hotspots (cyclones, floods, landslides, and droughts) in terms of frequency, mortality, and economic losses. We use these data to identify areas where climate vulnerability appears to be increasing and where it may be decreasing. Regions where trends and patterns are especially worrisome include coastal areas of Guatemala and Honduras.

  6. Simulation of South Asian aerosols for regional climate studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nair, Vijayakumar S.; Solmon, Fabien; Giorgi, Filippo; Mariotti, Laura; Babu, S. Suresh; Moorthy, K. Krishna

    2012-02-01

    Extensive intercomparison of columnar and near-surface aerosols, simulated over the South Asian domain using the aerosol module included in the regional climate model (RegCM4) of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) have been carried out using ground-based network of Sun/sky Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) radiometers, satellite sensors such as Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), and ground-based black carbon (BC) measurements made at Aerosol Radiative Forcing over India (ARFI) network stations. In general, RegCM4 simulations reproduced the spatial and seasonal characteristics of aerosol optical depth over South Asia reasonably well, particularly over west Asia, where mineral dust is a major contributor to the total aerosol loading. In contrast, RegCM4 simulations drastically underestimated the BC mass concentrations over most of the stations, by a factor of 2 to 5, with a large spatial variability. Seasonally, the discrepancy between the measured and simulated BC tended to be higher during winter and periods when the atmospheric boundary layer is convectively stable (such as nighttime and early mornings), while during summer season and during periods when the boundary layer is convectively unstable (daytime) the discrepancies were much lower, with the noontime values agreeing very closely with the observations. A detailed analysis revealed that the model does not reproduce the nocturnal high in BC, observed at most of the Indian sites especially during winter, because of the excessive vertical transport of aerosols under stable boundary layer conditions. As far as the vertical distribution was concerned, the simulated vertical profiles of BC agreed well with airborne measurements during daytime. This comprehensive validation exercise reveals the strengths and weaknesses of the model in simulating the spatial and temporal heterogeneities of the aerosol fields over

  7. Regional climate modeling of heat stress, frost, and water stress events in the agricultural region of Southwest Western Australia under the current climate and future climate scenarios.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kala, Jatin; Lyons, Tom J.; Abbs, Deborah J.; Foster, Ian J.

    2010-05-01

    Heat stress, frost, and water stress events have significant impacts on grain quality and production within the agricultural region (wheat-belt) of Southwest Western Australia (SWWA) (Cramb, 2000) and understanding how the frequency and intensity of these events will change in the future is crucial for management purposes. Hence, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (Pielke et al, 1992) (RAMS Version 6.0) is used to simulate the past 10 years of the climate of SWWA at a 20 km grid resolution by down-scaling the 6-hourly 1.0 by 1.0 degree National Center for Environmental Prediction Final Analyses from December 1999 to Present. Daily minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as daily rainfall are validated against observations. Simulations of future climate are carried out by down-scaling the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Mark 3.5 General Circulation Model (Gordon et al, 2002) for 10 years (2046-2055) under the SRES A2 scenario using the Cubic Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM) (McGregor and Dix, 2008). The 6-hourly CCAM output is then downscaled to a 20 km resolution using RAMS. Changes in extreme events are discussed within the context of the continued viability of agriculture in SWWA. Cramb, J. (2000) Climate in relation to agriculture in south-western Australia. In: The Wheat Book (Eds W. K. Anderson and J. R. Garlinge). Bulletin 4443. Department of Agriculture, Western Australia. Gordon, H. B., Rotstayn, L. D., McGregor, J. L., Dix, M. R., Kowalczyk, E. A., O'Farrell, S. P., Waterman, L. J., Hirst, A. C., Wilson, S. G., Collier, M. A., Watterson, I. G., and Elliott, T. I. (2002). The CSIRO Mk3 Climate System Model [Electronic publication]. Aspendale: CSIRO Atmospheric Research. (CSIRO Atmospheric Research technical paper; no. 60). 130 p McGregor, J. L., and Dix, M. R., (2008) An updated description of the conformal-cubic atmospheric model. High Resolution Simulation of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Hamilton, K. and Ohfuchi

  8. The Climate Shift and the Climate Variability in the Mediterranean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lopez Parages, Jorge; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen

    2010-05-01

    The so-called "climate shift" (CS) was defined at the beginning of the nineties as a dramatic change between 1976-77 in the basic state of the tropical Pacific and in the ENSO dynamics. Nowadays, the 1976-1977 shift is interpreted as a phase change in a decadal scale oscillation (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO, Mantua et al. 1997) lasting from about 1976 to 1988 (Trenberth and Hurrell 1994, Miller et al. 1994). However, several changes in the global climate have been reported after the CS; as changes in the air-sea interactions and in the tropical and extratropical teleconnection patterns. The climate variability of the Mediterranean area is influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, Hurrell, 2003), which frequency and positive phase intensity has suffered an increase after the CS unprecedented in the instrumental period, in coincidence with extreme drought conditions in the Mediterranean region. This results remark the non-stationary variability of the NAO (Vicente-Serrano and López-Moreno, 2008b) and the existence of changes in the underlying dynamics. In addition, Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and ENSO have also shown to exhibit a strong and non- stationary influence in the Mediterranean basin, with maximum correlations at the beginning of the twenty century and since the CS (Mariotti et al. 2002), in concordance with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) evolution. A recent singular discovery show the influence of the Atlantic Niño on its Pacific counterpart (Rodríguez-Fonseca et al. 2009; Losada et al. 2009), a relation that was statistically pointed out in Polo et al. (2008a). These results remark the increasing importance of the TAV on the global climate and on the observed change, from the late 70's, in the global teleconnections. Although some studies point out the seasonal dependence of the leading modes of precipitation variability over Europe (Zveryaev, 2006), in this work, a gridded monthly terrestrial gauge

  9. The spread amongst ENSEMBLES regional scenarios: regional climate models, driving general circulation models and interannual variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Déqué, M.; Somot, S.; Sanchez-Gomez, E.; Goodess, C. M.; Jacob, D.; Lenderink, G.; Christensen, O. B.

    2012-03-01

    Various combinations of thirteen regional climate models (RCM) and six general circulation models (GCM) were used in FP6-ENSEMBLES. The response to the SRES-A1B greenhouse gas concentration scenario over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2021-2050 and the 1961-1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance explained for temperature and precipitation changes over eight European sub-areas. Three sources of uncertainty can be evaluated from the ENSEMBLES database. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number of years (30) despite a non-negligible interannual variability. Regional model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Global model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs have been driven by different GCMs. Two methods are presented to fill the many empty cells of the ENSEMBLES RCM × GCM matrix. The first one is based on the same approach as in FP5-PRUDENCE. The second one uses the concept of weather regimes to attempt to separate the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The variance of the climate response is analyzed with respect to the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The two filling methods agree that the main contributor to the spread is the choice of the GCM, except for summer precipitation where the choice of the RCM dominates the uncertainty. Of course the implication of the GCM to the spread varies with the region, being maximum in the South-western part of Europe, whereas the continental parts are more sensitive to the choice of the RCM. The third cause of spread is systematically the interannual variability. The total uncertainty about temperature is not large enough to mask the 2021-2050 response which shows a similar pattern to the one obtained for 2071-2100 in PRUDENCE. The uncertainty

  10. Positive and negative family emotional climate differentially predict youth anxiety and depression via distinct affective pathways.

    PubMed

    Luebbe, Aaron M; Bell, Debora J

    2014-08-01

    A socioaffective specificity model was tested in which positive and negative affect differentially mediated relations of family emotional climate to youth internalizing symptoms. Participants were 134 7(th)-9(th) grade adolescents (65 girls; 86 % Caucasian) and mothers who completed measures of emotion-related family processes, experienced affect, anxiety, and depression. Results suggested that a family environment characterized by maternal psychological control and family negative emotion expressiveness predicted greater anxiety and depression, and was mediated by experienced negative affect. Conversely, a family emotional environment characterized by low maternal warmth and low positive emotion expressiveness predicted only depression, and was mediated through lowered experienced positive affect. This study synthesizes a theoretical model of typical family emotion socialization with an extant affect-based model of shared and unique aspects of anxiety and depression symptom expression.

  11. Improvement of snowpack simulations in a regional climate model

    SciTech Connect

    Jin, J.; Miller, N.L.

    2011-01-10

    To improve simulations of regional-scale snow processes and related cold-season hydroclimate, the Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3), developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), was coupled with the Pennsylvania State University/NCAR fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). CLM3 physically describes the mass and heat transfer within the snowpack using five snow layers that include liquid water and solid ice. The coupled MM5–CLM3 model performance was evaluated for the snowmelt season in the Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwestern United States using gridded temperature and precipitation observations, along with station observations. The results from MM5–CLM3 show a significant improvement in the SWE simulation, which has been underestimated in the original version of MM5 coupled with the Noah land-surface model. One important cause for the underestimated SWE in Noah is its unrealistic land-surface structure configuration where vegetation, snow and the topsoil layer are blended when snow is present. This study demonstrates the importance of the sheltering effects of the forest canopy on snow surface energy budgets, which is included in CLM3. Such effects are further seen in the simulations of surface air temperature and precipitation in regional weather and climate models such as MM5. In addition, the snow-season surface albedo overestimated by MM5–Noah is now more accurately predicted by MM5–CLM3 using a more realistic albedo algorithm that intensifies the solar radiation absorption on the land surface, reducing the strong near-surface cold bias in MM5–Noah. The cold bias is further alleviated due to a slower snowmelt rate in MM5–CLM3 during the early snowmelt stage, which is closer to observations than the comparable components of MM5–Noah. In addition, the over-predicted precipitation in the Pacific Northwest as shown in MM5–Noah is significantly decreased in MM5 CLM3 due to the lower evaporation resulting from the

  12. Investigating Downscaling Methods and Evaluating Climate Models for Use in Estimating Regional Water Resources in Mountainous Regions under Changing Climatic Conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Frei, Allan; Nolin, Anne W.; Serreze, Mark C.; Armstrong, Richard L.; McGinnis, David L.; Robinson, David A.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this three-year study is to develop and evaluate techniques to estimate the range of potential hydrological impacts of climate change in mountainous areas. Three main objectives are set out in the proposal. (1) To develop and evaluate transfer functions to link tropospheric circulation to regional snowfall. (2) To evaluate a suite of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for use in estimating synoptic scale circulation and the resultant regional snowfall. And (3) to estimate the range of potential hydrological impacts of changing climate in the two case study areas: the Upper Colorado River basin, and the Catskill Mountains of southeastern New York State. Both regions provide water to large populations.

  13. Impacts of climate change on sub-regional electricity demand and distribution in the southern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, Melissa R.; Fernandez, Steven J.; Fu, Joshua S.; Olama, Mohammed M.

    2016-08-01

    High average temperatures lead to high regional electricity demand for cooling buildings, and large populations generally require more aggregate electricity than smaller ones do. Thus, future global climate and population changes will present regional infrastructure challenges regarding changing electricity demand. However, without spatially explicit representation of this demand or the ways in which it might change at the neighbourhood scale, it is difficult to determine which electricity service areas are most vulnerable and will be most affected by these changes. Here we show that detailed projections of changing local electricity demand patterns are viable and important for adaptation planning at the urban level in a changing climate. Employing high-resolution and spatially explicit tools, we find that electricity demand increases caused by temperature rise have the greatest impact over the next 40 years in areas serving small populations, and that large population influx stresses any affected service area, especially during peak demand.

  14. Impacts of climate change on sub-regional electricity demand and distribution in the southern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, Melissa R.; Fernandez, Steven J.; Fu, Joshua S.; Olama, Mohammed M.

    2016-08-01

    High average temperatures lead to high regional electricity demand for cooling buildings, and large populations generally require more aggregate electricity than smaller ones do. Thus, future global climate and population changes will present regional infrastructure challenges regarding changing electricity demand. However, without spatially explicit representation of this demand or the ways in which it might change at the neighbourhood scale, it is difficult to determine which electricity service areas are most vulnerable and will be most affected by these changes. Here we show that detailed projections of changing local electricity demand patterns are viable and important for adaptation planning at the urban level in a changing climate. Employing high-resolution and spatially explicit tools, we find that electricity demand increases caused by temperature rise have the greatest impact over the next 40 years in areas serving small populations, and that large population influx stresses any affected service area, especially during peak demand.

  15. Assessment of future scenarios for wind erosion sensitivity changes based on ALADIN and REMO regional climate model simulation data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mezősi, Gábor; Blanka, Viktória; Bata, Teodóra; Ladányi, Zsuzsanna; Kemény, Gábor; Meyer, Burghard C.

    2016-07-01

    The changes in rate and pattern of wind erosion sensitivity due to climate change were investigated for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 compared to the reference period (1961-1990) in Hungary. The sensitivities of the main influencing factors (soil texture, vegetation cover and climate factor) were evaluated by fuzzy method and a combined wind erosion sensitivity map was compiled. The climate factor, as the driving factor of the changes, was assessed based on observed data for the reference period, while REMO and ALADIN regional climate model simulation data for the future periods. The changes in wind erosion sensitivity were evaluated on potentially affected agricultural land use types, and hot spot areas were allocated. Based on the results, 5-6% of the total agricultural areas were high sensitive areas in the reference period. In the 21st century slight or moderate changes of wind erosion sensitivity can be expected, and mostly `pastures', `complex cultivation patterns', and `land principally occupied by agriculture with significant areas of natural vegetation' are affected. The applied combination of multi-indicator approach and fuzzy analysis provides novelty in the field of land sensitivity assessment. The method is suitable for regional scale analysis of wind erosion sensitivity changes and supports regional planning by allocating priority areas where changes in agro-technics or land use have to be considered.

  16. Estimation of regional mass anomalies from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) over Himalayan region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agrawal, R.; Singh, S. K.; Rajawat, A. S.; Ajai

    2014-11-01

    Time-variable gravity changes are caused by a combination of postglacial rebound, redistribution of water and snow/ice on land and as well as in the ocean. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, launched in 2002, provides monthly average of the spherical harmonic co-efficient. These spherical harmonic co-efficient describe earth's gravity field with a resolution of few hundred kilometers. Time-variability of gravity field represents the change in mass over regional level with accuracies in cm in terms of Water Equivalent Height (WEH). The WEH reflects the changes in the integrated vertically store water including snow cover, surface water, ground water and soil moisture at regional scale. GRACE data are also sensitive towards interior strain variation, surface uplift and surface subsidence cover over a large area. GRACE data was extracted over the three major Indian River basins, Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra, in the Himalayas which are perennial source of fresh water throughout the year in Northern Indian Plain. Time series analysis of the GRACE data was carried out from 2003-2012 over the study area. Trends and amplitudes of the regional mass anomalies in the region were estimated using level 3 GRACE data product with a spatial resolution at 10 by 10 grid provided by Center for Space Research (CSR), University of Texas at Austin. Indus basin has shown a subtle decreasing trend from 2003-2012 however it was observed to be statistically insignificant at 95 % confidence level. Ganga and Brahmaputra basins have shown a clear decreasing trend in WEH which was also observed to be statistically significant. The trend analysis over Ganga and Brahamputra basins have shown an average annual change of -1.28 cm and -1.06 cm in terms of WEH whereas Indus basin has shown a slight annual change of -0.07 cm. This analysis will be helpful to understand the loss of mass in terms of WEH over Indian Himalayas and will be crucial for hydrological and

  17. Influence of Climate Change on Damages to Crops Produced by Hail Events at Spanish Peninsular Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saa Requejo, A.; Tarquis, A. M.; García Moreno, R.; Gascó, G.; Burgaz, F.; Díaz Alvarez, M. C.

    2009-04-01

    Climate, often the most critical factor for the sustainability of agricultural systems, dictates which crops will grow in a region. Specific weather events, such as hail, will affect yield or quality of crops depending on the affected species, the temperatures reached and the timing of phenology. Predicting the occurrence of hailstorms is one of the most complicated tasks in weather forecasting because of the small area of land that is usually affected, and because of the short time hail events last. The importance of the study is related to the insurance of the different crops, since the damages are perceived as increasing during the last years, and consequently the amount of the economical compensations to crop producers. Under these conditions the State Agricultural Insurance Body of the Ministry of Environment and Rural and Marine Affairs were interested to know the extent of the new changing conditions to analyze the viability of the actual system and the potential future changes. The results demonstrate trend variability on damage risk to different crops produced by hail events at the Spanish peninsula. Meanwhile in some provinces show a negative trend in others are positive. However, all of them present several oscillations that questionate these trends. The research evaluated also the average minimum temperatures in summer for 405 weather stations over the peninsular region of Spain since 1981 until 2007, time in which crop insurance data can be verified. This study doesn't confirm the results obtained in France that relate hail damage registered with the average minimum temperatures.

  18. Placing Central European climate archives into a regional tephrochronological framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lane, C. S.; Blockley, S. P. E.; Lotter, A. F.; Filippi, M. L.; Pollard, A. M.

    2009-04-01

    A number of Lateglacial and Early Holocene lacustrine records from Central and Southern Europe have been shown to contain both visible and micro-tephra deposits, which can be correlated to volcanic eruptions from multiple volcanic sources. Detailed environmental proxy records, which outline local and regional responses to the abrupt climatic changes of the Last Glacial to Interglacial transition (LGIT), are thus constrained within a regional tephrochronological framework. Amongst other volcanic markers, the Laacher See Tephra, erupted from the Eifel region of Germany at 12,880 ±120 varve yrs BP (Brauer et al., 1999), and the Vedde Ash, erupted from Iceland between 12,225 and 11,832 cal. yrs BP (Blockley et al., 2007), are found within some of the same lake cores (e.g., Blockley et al., 2008). These key horizons, which bracket the onset of the Younger Dryas Interstadial, provide precise and absolutely dated tie points around which a detailed picture of the timing of local and regional environmental transitions can be constructed. The presence of the Vedde Ash in the Swiss lake sites allows a direct linkage to the Greenland Ice Core chronology (Mortensen et al., 2005) and highlights the potential for key tephra deposits to be found and correlated across wide geographical areas. This paper summarises the results of tephrochronological investigations into a suite of Central European records, which includes: Soppensee and Rotsee, in Central Switzerland; Rotmeer, in Southern Germany; and Lavarone, in Northern Italy. Chemical analysis of each tephra deposit has been carried out and the sources of the eruption events have been identified. Where appropriate, tephra ages have been transferred from high-precision annually-resolved chronologies and integrated with Bayesian-based radiocarbon age models for the sites. The environmental archives of the LGIT at each site are then compared on a common timescale, and further comparisons are made with other published European tephra

  19. Assessment of dynamical downscaling in Japan using an atmosphere-biosphere-river coupling regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dairaku, K.; Iizuka, S.; Sasaki, W.; Beltran, A.; Pielke, R. A.

    2008-12-01

    The responses of the climate system to increases in carbon dioxide concentrations and to changes in land use/land cover and the subsequent impacts of climatic variability on humans and natural ecosystems are of fundamental concern. Because regional responses of surface hydrological and biogeochemical changes are particularly complex, it is necessary to add spatial resolution to accurately assess critical interactions within the regional climate system for climate change impacts assessments. We investigated the reproducibility of present climate using two regional climate models with 20km horizontal grid spacing, the atmosphere- biosphere-river coupling regional climate model(GEMRAMS) and the Meteorological Research Institute Nonhydrostatic Model(MRI-NHM), both of which used Japanese 25-year ReAnalysis (JRA-25) as lateral boundary conditions. Two key variables for impact studies, surface air temperature and precipitation, were compared with the Japanese high-resolution surface observation, Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMeDAS) on 78 river basins. Results simulated by the two models were relatively in good agreement with the observation on the basin scale. The differences of surface air temperature between the models and the observation were less than 2K and the ratio of precipitation of the models to the observation was within 0.5-2 on seasonal averages. By adding other two regional climate models, a multi-model ensemble will be applied in climate change impact studies in combination with additional statistical downscaling approaches.

  20. On the relationship between personal experience, affect and risk perception: The case of climate change

    PubMed Central

    van der Linden, Sander

    2014-01-01

    Examining the conceptual relationship between personal experience, affect, and risk perception is crucial in improving our understanding of how emotional and cognitive process mechanisms shape public perceptions of climate change. This study is the first to investigate the interrelated nature of these variables by contrasting three prominent social-psychological theories. In the first model, affect is viewed as a fast and associative information processing heuristic that guides perceptions of risk. In the second model, affect is seen as flowing from cognitive appraisals (i.e., affect is thought of as a post-cognitive process). Lastly, a third, dual-process model is advanced that integrates aspects from both theoretical perspectives. Four structural equation models were tested on a national sample (N = 808) of British respondents. Results initially provide support for the “cognitive” model, where personal experience with extreme weather is best conceptualized as a predictor of climate change risk perception and, in turn, risk perception a predictor of affect. Yet, closer examination strongly indicates that at the same time, risk perception and affect reciprocally influence each other in a stable feedback system. It is therefore concluded that both theoretical claims are valid and that a dual-process perspective provides a superior fit to the data. Implications for theory and risk communication are discussed. © 2014 The Authors. European Journal of Social Psychology published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:25678723

  1. The statistical significance test of regional climate change caused by land use and land cover variation in West China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, H. J.; Shi, W. L.; Chen, X. H.

    2006-05-01

    The West Development Policy being implemented in China is causing significant land use and land cover (LULC) changes in West China. With the up-to-date satellite database of the Global Land Cover Characteristics Database (GLCCD) that characterizes the lower boundary conditions, the regional climate model RIEMS-TEA is used to simulate possible impacts of the significant LULC variation. The model was run for five continuous three-month periods from 1 June to 1 September of 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, and 1997, and the results of the five groups are examined by means of a student t-test to identify the statistical significance of regional climate variation. The main results are: (1) The regional climate is affected by the LULC variation because the equilibrium of water and heat transfer in the air-vegetation interface is changed. (2) The integrated impact of the LULC variation on regional climate is not only limited to West China where the LULC varies, but also to some areas in the model domain where the LULC does not vary at all. (3) The East Asian monsoon system and its vertical structure are adjusted by the large scale LULC variation in western China, where the consequences axe the enhancement of the westward water vapor transfer from the east east and the relevant increase of wet-hydrostatic energy in the middle-upper atmospheric layers. (4) The ecological engineering in West China affects significantly the regional climate in Northwest China, North China and the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River; there are obvious effects in South, Northeast, and Southwest China, but minor effects in Tibet.

  2. Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Xu, Yi; Li, Shuo

    2016-01-01

    Land use change and climate variability are two key factors impacting watershed hydrology, which is strongly related to the availability of water resources and the sustainability of local ecosystems. This study assessed separate and combined hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of a typical arid inland river basin, known as the Heihe River Basin, northwest China, in the recent past (1995-2014) and near future (2015-2024), by combining two land use models (i.e., Markov chain model and Dyna-CLUE) with a hydrological model (i.e., SWAT). The potential impacts in the near future were explored using projected land use patterns and hypothetical climate scenarios established on the basis of analyzing long-term climatic observations. Land use changes in the recent past are dominated by the expansion of grassland and a decrease in farmland; meanwhile the climate develops with a wetting and warming trend. Land use changes in this period induce slight reductions in surface runoff, groundwater discharge and streamflow whereas climate changes produce pronounced increases in them. The joint hydrological impacts are similar to those solely induced by climate changes. Spatially, both the effects of land use change and climate variability vary with the sub-basin. The influences of land use changes are more identifiable in some sub-basins, compared with the basin-wide impacts. In the near future, climate changes tend to affect the hydrological regimes much more prominently than land use changes, leading to significant increases in all hydrological components. Nevertheless, the role of land use change should not be overlooked, especially if the climate becomes drier in the future, as in this case it may magnify the hydrological responses. PMID:27348224

  3. Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Xu, Yi; Li, Shuo

    2016-01-01

    Land use change and climate variability are two key factors impacting watershed hydrology, which is strongly related to the availability of water resources and the sustainability of local ecosystems. This study assessed separate and combined hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of a typical arid inland river basin, known as the Heihe River Basin, northwest China, in the recent past (1995–2014) and near future (2015–2024), by combining two land use models (i.e., Markov chain model and Dyna-CLUE) with a hydrological model (i.e., SWAT). The potential impacts in the near future were explored using projected land use patterns and hypothetical climate scenarios established on the basis of analyzing long-term climatic observations. Land use changes in the recent past are dominated by the expansion of grassland and a decrease in farmland; meanwhile the climate develops with a wetting and warming trend. Land use changes in this period induce slight reductions in surface runoff, groundwater discharge and streamflow whereas climate changes produce pronounced increases in them. The joint hydrological impacts are similar to those solely induced by climate changes. Spatially, both the effects of land use change and climate variability vary with the sub-basin. The influences of land use changes are more identifiable in some sub-basins, compared with the basin-wide impacts. In the near future, climate changes tend to affect the hydrological regimes much more prominently than land use changes, leading to significant increases in all hydrological components. Nevertheless, the role of land use change should not be overlooked, especially if the climate becomes drier in the future, as in this case it may magnify the hydrological responses. PMID:27348224

  4. Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Xu, Yi; Li, Shuo

    2016-01-01

    Land use change and climate variability are two key factors impacting watershed hydrology, which is strongly related to the availability of water resources and the sustainability of local ecosystems. This study assessed separate and combined hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of a typical arid inland river basin, known as the Heihe River Basin, northwest China, in the recent past (1995-2014) and near future (2015-2024), by combining two land use models (i.e., Markov chain model and Dyna-CLUE) with a hydrological model (i.e., SWAT). The potential impacts in the near future were explored using projected land use patterns and hypothetical climate scenarios established on the basis of analyzing long-term climatic observations. Land use changes in the recent past are dominated by the expansion of grassland and a decrease in farmland; meanwhile the climate develops with a wetting and warming trend. Land use changes in this period induce slight reductions in surface runoff, groundwater discharge and streamflow whereas climate changes produce pronounced increases in them. The joint hydrological impacts are similar to those solely induced by climate changes. Spatially, both the effects of land use change and climate variability vary with the sub-basin. The influences of land use changes are more identifiable in some sub-basins, compared with the basin-wide impacts. In the near future, climate changes tend to affect the hydrological regimes much more prominently than land use changes, leading to significant increases in all hydrological components. Nevertheless, the role of land use change should not be overlooked, especially if the climate becomes drier in the future, as in this case it may magnify the hydrological responses.

  5. Projected changes in atmospheric river events in Arizona as simulated by global and regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rivera, Erick R.; Dominguez, Francina

    2015-12-01

    Inland-penetrating atmospheric rivers (ARs) affect the United States Southwest and significantly contribute to cool season precipitation. In this study, we examine the results from an ensemble of dynamically downscaled simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) and their driving general circulation models (GCMs) in order to determine statistically significant changes in the intensity of the cool season ARs impacting Arizona and the associated precipitation. Future greenhouse gas emissions follow the A2 emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report simulations. We find that there is a consistent and clear intensification of the AR-related water vapor transport in both the global and regional simulations which reflects the increase in water vapor content due to warmer atmospheric temperatures, according to the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. However, the response of AR-related precipitation intensity to increased moisture flux and column-integrated water vapor is weak and no significant changes are projected either by the GCMs or the NARCCAP models. This lack of robust precipitation variations can be explained in part by the absence of meaningful changes in both the large-scale water vapor flux convergence and the maximum positive relative vorticity in the GCMs. Additionally, some global models show a robust decrease in relative humidity which may also be responsible for the projected precipitation patterns.

  6. Regional tree growth and inferred summer climate in the Winnipeg River basin, Canada, since AD 1783

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    St. George, Scott; Meko, David M.; Evans, Michael N.

    2008-09-01

    A network of 54 ring-width chronologies is used to estimate changes in summer climate within the Winnipeg River basin, Canada, since AD 1783. The basin drains parts of northwestern Ontario, northern Minnesota and southeastern Manitoba, and is a key area for hydroelectric power production. Most chronologies were developed from Pinus resinosa and P. strobus, with a limited number of Thuja occidentalis, Picea glauca and Pinus banksiana. The dominant pattern of regional tree growth can be recovered using only the nine longest chronologies, and is not affected by the method used to remove variability related to age or stand dynamics from individual trees. Tree growth is significantly, but weakly, correlated with both temperature (negatively) and precipitation (positively) during summer. Simulated ring-width chronologies produced by a process model of tree-ring growth exhibit similar relationships with summer climate. High and low growth across the region is associated with cool/wet and warm/dry summers, respectively; this relationship is supported by comparisons with archival records from early 19th century fur-trading posts. The tree-ring record indicates that summer droughts were more persistent in the 19th and late 18th century, but there is no evidence that drought was more extreme prior to the onset of direct monitoring.

  7. Projected changes in atmospheric river events in Arizona as simulated by global and regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rivera, Erick R.; Dominguez, Francina

    2016-09-01

    Inland-penetrating atmospheric rivers (ARs) affect the United States Southwest and significantly contribute to cool season precipitation. In this study, we examine the results from an ensemble of dynamically downscaled simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) and their driving general circulation models (GCMs) in order to determine statistically significant changes in the intensity of the cool season ARs impacting Arizona and the associated precipitation. Future greenhouse gas emissions follow the A2 emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report simulations. We find that there is a consistent and clear intensification of the AR-related water vapor transport in both the global and regional simulations which reflects the increase in water vapor content due to warmer atmospheric temperatures, according to the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. However, the response of AR-related precipitation intensity to increased moisture flux and column-integrated water vapor is weak and no significant changes are projected either by the GCMs or the NARCCAP models. This lack of robust precipitation variations can be explained in part by the absence of meaningful changes in both the large-scale water vapor flux convergence and the maximum positive relative vorticity in the GCMs. Additionally, some global models show a robust decrease in relative humidity which may also be responsible for the projected precipitation patterns.

  8. Regional Climate Simulation Experiments with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Takacs, Lawrence L.; Stein, Uri; Govindaraju, Ravi C.

    1999-01-01

    The variable resolution stretched grid (SG) version of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) GCM has been recently developed and tested in a regional