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Sample records for affect tropical cyclone

  1. Interdecadal variation of Korea affecting tropical cyclone intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Ki-Seon; Cha, Yu-Mi; Kang, Sung-Dae; Kim, Hae-Dong

    2015-05-01

    This study analyzed a time series of average central pressure of tropical cyclone (TC) that affected Korea in summer season from 1965 to 2012. To determine whether climate regime shift exists in this time series, statistical change-point analysis was applied to this time series. The result showed that significant climate regime shift existed in 1989, that is, TC intensity from 1965 to 1988 (6588) was weaker than that from 1989 to 2012 (8912). Therefore, an average difference between former and latter periods was analyzed to study large-scale environments, which caused such difference. While TC genesis frequency showed a tendency that TCs in the 6588 period were originated from the northwest quadrant in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, TCs in the 8912 period were originated from the southeast quadrant. Thus, it was judged that TCs in the 6588 were generated at a higher latitude followed by moving to Korea, so their strength was weaker than those of TCs of 8912 due to lack of time to acquire sufficient energy from the sea. For TC passage frequency, TCs in the 6588 period showed a tendency to move a short distance from the sea far away from the southeast in Japan to the sea far away from the northeast in Japan or toward the East China Sea. On the other hand, TCs in the 8912 period moved a longer distance from the sea far away from the Philippines via Japan to the eastern sea of Kamchatka Peninsular or toward the east region in China. As such, an average difference of intensity between the former period and the latter period over the 500-hPa streamline was analyzed to determine why the intensity of TCs in the 6588 period was weaker than that of TCs in the 8912 period. As a result, anomalous cold northerlies from anomalous cyclones based on the northern territory of Japan were predominant, while these anomalous flows were originated from the tropical and subtropical western Pacific followed by moving to Korea, thereby affecting the weakening of the TC

  2. Tropical cyclone formation

    SciTech Connect

    Montgomery, M.T.; Farrell, B.F. )

    1993-01-15

    The physics of tropical cyclone formation is not well understood, and more is known about the mature hurricane than the formative mechanisms that produce it. It is believed part of the reason for this can be traced to insufficient upper-level atmospheric data. Recent observations suggest that tropical cyclones are initiated by asymmetric interactions associated with migratory upper-level potential vorticity disturbances and low-level disturbances. Favored theories of cyclones formation, however, focus on internal processes associated with cumulus convection and/or air-sea interaction. This work focuses on external mechanisms of cyclone formation and, using both a two- and three-dimensional moist geostrophic momentum model, investigates the role of upper-level potential vorticity disturbances on the formation process. A conceptual model of tropical cyclone formation is proposed, and implications of the theory are discussed. 71 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  3. Tropical Cyclone Nargis: 2008

    NASA Video Gallery

    This new animation, developed with the help of NASA's Pleiades supercomputer, illustrates how tropical cyclone Nargis formed in the Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal over several days in late April 2008...

  4. Grey swan tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Ning; Emanuel, Kerry

    2016-01-01

    We define `grey swan’ tropical cyclones as high-impact storms that would not be predicted based on history but may be foreseeable using physical knowledge together with historical data. Here we apply a climatological-hydrodynamic method to estimate grey swan tropical cyclone storm surge threat for three highly vulnerable coastal regions. We identify a potentially large risk in the Persian Gulf, where tropical cyclones have never been recorded, and larger-than-expected threats in Cairns, Australia, and Tampa, Florida. Grey swan tropical cyclones striking Tampa, Cairns and Dubai can generate storm surges of about 6 m, 5.7 m and 4 m, respectively, with estimated annual exceedance probabilities of about 1/10,000. With climate change, these probabilities can increase significantly over the twenty-first century (to 1/3,100-1/1,100 in the middle and 1/2,500-1/700 towards the end of the century for Tampa). Worse grey swan tropical cyclones, inducing surges exceeding 11 m in Tampa and 7 m in Dubai, are also revealed with non-negligible probabilities, especially towards the end of the century.

  5. Assessing Tropical Cyclone Damage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Done, J.; Czajkowski, J.

    2012-12-01

    Landfalling tropical cyclones impact large coastal and inland areas causing direct damage due to winds, storm-surge flooding, tornadoes, and precipitation; as well as causing substantial indirect damage such as electrical outages and business interruption. The likely climate change impact of increased tropical cyclone intensity, combined with increases in exposure, bring the possibility of increased damage in the future. A considerable amount of research has focused on modeling economic damage due to tropical cyclones, and a series of indices have been developed to assess damages under climate change. We highlight a number of ways this research can be improved through a series of case study analyses. First, historical loss estimates are revisited to properly account for; time, impacted regions, the source of damage by type, and whether the damage was direct/indirect and insured/uninsured. Second, the drivers of loss from both the socio-economic and physical side are examined. A case is made to move beyond the use of maximum wind speed to more stable metrics and the use of other characteristics of the wind field such as direction, degree of gustiness, and duration is explored. A novel approach presented here is the potential to model losses directly as a function of climate variables such as sea surface temperature, greenhouse gases, and aerosols. This work is the first stage in the development of a tropical cyclone loss model to enable projections of losses under scenarios of both socio-economic change (such as population migration or altered policy) and physical change (such as shifts in tropical cyclone activity one from basin to another or within the same basin).

  6. Thermal stress and tropical cyclones affect economic production in Central America and Caribbean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsiang, S. M.

    2009-12-01

    Surface temperatures and tropical cyclones have large impacts on economic production. Local cyclone energy dissipation reduces output in agriculture and tourism, while stimulating output in construction. High surface temperatures reduce output in several labor-intensive industries; a 1° C increase for two consecutive years results in production losses of ˜13%. The response is greatest during the hottest season and is non-linear, with high temperature days contributing the most to production losses. The structure of this response matches results from a large ergonomics literature, supporting the hypothesis that thermal stress reduces human performance, driving macroeconomic fluctuations. This large response of non-agricultural sectors suggests that current estimates underestimate the scale and scope of economic vulnerabilities to climate change. Responses of each industry to surface temperature, tropical cyclones and rainfall. Estimates represent the change of value-added in the industry in response to each atmospheric variables during the year of production (L=0) and the years prior (L≥1). The responses to surface temperature are triangles, tropical cyclones are squares and rainfall are crosses. Estimates are grey if none of the annual responses are significant at the α = 0.1 level. Whiskers indicate 95% confidence intervals. Tourism receipts displays the five years prior (L=1-5) because of the long response of that industry to cyclones. Agriculture per worker is also plotted as circles when estimated a second time excluding mainland countries from the sample. Units are: temperature- percent change in output per 0.33°C; cyclones- percent changes in output per 1 standard deviation of tropical cyclone energy; rainfall- percent change in output per 2 cm/month.

  7. Global trends in tropical cyclone risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peduzzi, P.; Chatenoux, B.; Dao, H.; de Bono, A.; Herold, C.; Kossin, J.; Mouton, F.; Nordbeck, O.

    2012-04-01

    The impact of tropical cyclones on humans depends on the number of people exposed and their vulnerability, as well as the frequency and intensity of storms. How will the cumulative effects of climate change, demography and vulnerability affect risk? Conventionally, reports assessing tropical cyclone risk trends are based on reported losses, but these figures are biased by improvements to information access. Here we present a new methodology based on thousands of physically observed events and related contextual parameters. We show that mortality risk depends on tropical cyclone intensity, exposure, levels of poverty and governance. Despite the projected reduction in the frequency of tropical cyclones, projected increases in both demographic pressure and tropical cyclone intensity over the next 20 years can be expected to greatly increase the number of people exposed per year and exacerbate disaster risk, despite potential progression in development and governance.

  8. On the factors affecting trends and variability in tropical cyclone potential intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wing, Allison A.; Emanuel, Kerry; Solomon, Susan

    2015-10-01

    Tropical cyclone potential intensity (Vp) is controlled by thermodynamic air-sea disequilibrium and thermodynamic efficiency, which is a function of the sea surface temperature and the tropical cyclone's outflow temperature. Observed trends and variability in Vp in each ocean basin are decomposed into contributions from these two components. Robustly detectable trends are found only in the North Atlantic, where tropical tropopause layer (TTL) cooling contributes up to a third of the increase in Vp. The contribution from disequilibrium dominates the few statistically significant Vp trends in the other basins. The results are sensitive to the data set used and details of the Vp calculation, reflecting uncertainties in TTL temperature trends and the difficulty of estimating Vp and its components. We also find that 20-71% of the interannual variability in Vp is linked to the TTL, with correlations between detrended time series of thermodynamic efficiency and Vp occurring over all ocean basins.

  9. Development of a diagnosis index of tropical cyclones affecting the Korean Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Jae-Won; Cha, Yumi

    2016-06-01

    This study has developed the index for diagnosis on possibility that tropical cyclones (TCs) affect Korean Peninsula. This index is closely related to the strength of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), which is calculated as a difference in meridional wind between at the highest correlation area (around Korean Peninsula) and at the lowest correlation area (sea southeast of Japan) through a correlation analysis between TC frequency that affects Korean Peninsula and 500 hPa meridional wind. In low frequency years that selected from Korea affecting TC index, anomalous northeasterly is strengthened from Korea to the South China Sea because the center of anomalous anticyclonic circulation is located to northwest of Korean Peninsula. Thus, TCs tend to move westward from the sea east of the Philippines to the mainland China. On the other hand, in high frequency years, anomalous southwesterly serves as steering flow that more TCs move toward Korean Peninsula because the center of anomalous anticyclonic circulation is located to sea east of Japan. Consequently, this study suggests that if this index is calculated using real time 500 hPa meridional winds that forecasted by dynamic models during the movement of TCs, the possibility that TCs approach Korean Peninsula can be diagnosed in real time.

  10. Black Swan Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emanuel, K.; Lin, N.

    2012-12-01

    Virtually all assessments of tropical cyclone risk are based on historical records, which are limited to a few hundred years at most. Yet stronger TCs may occur in the future and at places that have not been affected historically. Such events lie outside the realm of historically based expectations and may have extreme impacts. Their occurrences are also often made explainable after the fact (e.g., Hurricane Katrina). We nickname such potential future TCs, characterized by rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective predictability, "black swans" (Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2007). As, by definition, black swan TCs have yet to happen, statistical methods that solely rely on historical track data cannot predict their occurrence. Global climate models lack the capability to predict intense storms, even with a resolution as high as 14 km (Emanuel et al. 2010). Also, most dynamic downscaling methods (e.g., Bender et al. 2010) are still limited in horizontal resolution and are too expensive to implement to generate enough events to include rare ones. In this study, we apply a simpler statistical/deterministic hurricane model (Emanuel et al. 2006) to simulate large numbers of synthetic storms under a given (observed or projected) climate condition. The method has been shown to generate realistic extremes in various basins (Emanuel et al. 2008 and 2010). We also apply a hydrodynamic model (ADCIRC; Luettich et al. 1992) to simulate the storm surges generated by these storms. We then search for black swan TCs, in terms of the joint wind and surge damage potential, in the generated large databases. Heavy rainfall is another important TC hazard and will be considered in a future study. We focus on three areas: Tampa Bay in the U.S., the Persian Gulf, and Darwin in Australia. Tampa Bay is highly vulnerable to storm surge as it is surrounded by shallow water and low-lying lands, much of which may be inundated by a storm tide of 6 m. High surges are generated by storms with a broad

  11. Tropical Cyclone Indlala

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2007-01-01

    On March 14, 2007, storm-weary Madagascar braced for its fourth land-falling tropical cyclone in as many months. Cyclone Indlala was hovering off the island's northeast coast when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite captured this photo-like image at 1:40 p.m. local time (10:40 UTC). Just over a hundred kilometers offshore, the partially cloudy eye at the heart of the storm seems like a vast drain sucking in a disk of swirling clouds. According to reports from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued less than three hours after MODIS captured this image, Indlala had winds of 115 knots (132 miles per hour), with gusts up to 140 knots (161 mph). Wave heights were estimated to be 36 feet. At the time of the report, the storm was predicted to intensify through the subsequent 12-hour period, to turn slightly southwest, and to strike eastern Madagascar as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds up to 125 knots (144 mph), and gusts up to 150 knots (173 mph). According to Reuters AlertNet news service, Madagascar's emergency response resources were taxed to their limit in early March 2007 as a result of extensive flooding in the North, drought and food shortages in the South, and three previous hits from cyclones in the preceding few months: Bondo in December 2006, Clovis in January 2007, and Gamede in February.

  12. Tropical cyclone rainfall structure affecting indochina peninsula and lower mekong river basin (LMB)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    CHHIN, Rattana; Joko Trilaksono, Nurjanna; Wahyu Hadi, Tri

    2016-08-01

    Indochina Peninsula is located in between Bay of Bengal (BoB) and South-China Sea (SCS). This region is affected frequently from Tropical Cyclones (TCs) formed in North Indian Ocean (NIO), South-China Sea (SCS), and North West Pacific Ocean (NWP). This research analyzed the structure of the rainfall over Indochina Peninsula and its relationships with TCs from the aforementioned sources. Principle Component Analysis (PCA) was performed to investigate the dominant rainfall area produced from those TCs. Spatial and Temporal structures of rainfall from the TCs is analyzed to understand their propagation. The results show that the dominant TC rainfall area covers Central Vietnam which contributed around 25% to total rainfall in the region. However, the contribution of this TC rainfall over LMB is likely less than 20% where Laos's territory receives highest contribution (20%). Furthermore, from the three source areas, TCs formed in SCS produce the highest rain rate when they develop into typhoon intensity stage of Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)’s scale. The average duration of TC rainfall over Indochina Peninsula is 81.28 hours, and over LMB is 66.22 hours. Thus, same as other regions in the Indochina Peninsula, LMB is affected by TC rainfall with considerable scales both spatially and temporally that may lead to significant hydrometeorological hazards.

  13. Tropical Cyclone Information System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Li, P. Peggy; Knosp, Brian W.; Vu, Quoc A.; Yi, Chao; Hristova-Veleva, Svetla M.

    2009-01-01

    The JPL Tropical Cyclone Infor ma tion System (TCIS) is a Web portal (http://tropicalcyclone.jpl.nasa.gov) that provides researchers with an extensive set of observed hurricane parameters together with large-scale and convection resolving model outputs. It provides a comprehensive set of high-resolution satellite (see figure), airborne, and in-situ observations in both image and data formats. Large-scale datasets depict the surrounding environmental parameters such as SST (Sea Surface Temperature) and aerosol loading. Model outputs and analysis tools are provided to evaluate model performance and compare observations from different platforms. The system pertains to the thermodynamic and microphysical structure of the storm, the air-sea interaction processes, and the larger-scale environment as depicted by ocean heat content and the aerosol loading of the environment. Currently, the TCIS is populated with satellite observations of all tropical cyclones observed globally during 2005. There is a plan to extend the database both forward in time till present as well as backward to 1998. The portal is powered by a MySQL database and an Apache/Tomcat Web server on a Linux system. The interactive graphic user interface is provided by Google Map.

  14. Cloudsat tropical cyclone database

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tourville, Natalie D.

    CloudSat (CS), the first 94 GHz spaceborne cloud profiling radar (CPR), launched in 2006 to study the vertical distribution of clouds. Not only are CS observations revealing inner vertical cloud details of water and ice globally but CS overpasses of tropical cyclones (TC's) are providing a new and exciting opportunity to study the vertical structure of these storm systems. CS TC observations are providing first time vertical views of TC's and demonstrate a unique way to observe TC structure remotely from space. Since December 2009, CS has intersected every globally named TC (within 1000 km of storm center) for a total of 5,278 unique overpasses of tropical systems (disturbance, tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane/typhoon/cyclone (HTC)). In conjunction with the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), each CS TC overpass is processed into a data file containing observational data from the afternoon constellation of satellites (A-TRAIN), Navy's Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System Model (NOGAPS), European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model and best track storm data. This study will describe the components and statistics of the CS TC database, present case studies of CS TC overpasses with complementary A-TRAIN observations and compare average reflectivity stratifications of TC's across different atmospheric regimes (wind shear, SST, latitude, maximum wind speed and basin). Average reflectivity stratifications reveal that characteristics in each basin vary from year to year and are dependent upon eye overpasses of HTC strength storms and ENSO phase. West Pacific (WPAC) basin storms are generally larger in size (horizontally and vertically) and have greater values of reflectivity at a predefined height than all other basins. Storm structure at higher latitudes expands horizontally. Higher vertical wind shear (≥ 9.5 m/s) reduces cloud top height (CTH) and the intensity of precipitation cores, especially in HTC strength storms

  15. APR-2 Tropical Cyclone Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Durden, S. L.; Tanelli, S.

    2011-01-01

    The Second Generation Airborne Precipitation Radar (APR-2) participated in the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment in August and September of 2010, collecting a large volume of data in several tropical systems, including Hurricanes Earl and Karl. Additional measurements of tropical cyclone have been made by APR-2 in experiments prior to GRIP (namely, CAMEX-4, NAMMA, TC4); Table 1 lists all the APR-2 tropical cyclone observations. The APR-2 observations consist of the vertical structure of rain reflectivity at 13.4 and 35.6 GHz, and at both co-polarization and crosspolarization, as well as vertical Doppler measurements and crosswind measurements. APR-2 normally flies on the NASA DC-8 aircraft, as in GRIP, collecting data with a downward looking, cross-track scanning geometry. The scan limits are 25 degrees on either side of the aircraft, resulting in a roughly 10-km swath, depending on the aircraft altitude. Details of the APR-2 observation geometry and performance can be found in Sadowy et al. (2003).The multiparameter nature of the APR-2 measurements makes the collection of tropical cyclone measurements valuable for detailed studies of the processes, microphysics and dynamics of tropical cyclones, as well as weaker systems that are associated with tropical cyclone formation. In this paper, we give a brief overview of how the APR-2 data are processed. We also discuss use of the APR-2 cross-track winds to estimate various quantities of interest in in studies of storm intensification. Finally, we show examples of the standard products and derived information.

  16. Tropical cyclone Pam field survey in Vanuatu

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fritz, Hermann M.; Pilarczyk, Jessica E.; Kosciuch, Thomas; Hong, Isabel; Rarai, Allan; Harrison, Morris J.; Jockley, Fred R.; Horton, Benjamin P.

    2016-04-01

    Severe tropical cyclone Pam (Cat. 5, SSHS) crossed the Vanuatu archipelago with sustained winds of 270 km/h on March 13 and 14, 2015 and made landfall on Erromango. Pam is the most intense tropical cyclone to make landfall on Vanuatu since the advent of satellite imagery based intensity estimates in the 1970s. Pam caused one of the worst natural disaster in Vanuatu's recorded history. Eleven fatalities were directly attributed to cyclone Pam and mostly due to lack of shelter from airborne debris. On March 6 Pam formed east of the Santa Cruz Islands causing coastal inundation on Tuvalu's Vaitupu Island located some 1100 km east of the cyclone center. Pam intensified while tracking southward along Vanuatu severely affecting the Shefa and Tafea Provinces. An international storm surge reconnaissance team was deployed to Vanuatu from June 3 to 17, 2015 to complement earlier local surveys. Cyclone Pam struck a remote island archipelago particularly vulnerable to the combined cyclonic multi-hazards encompassing extreme wind gusts, massive rainfall and coastal flooding due to a combination of storm surge and storm wave impacts. The team surveyed coastal villages on Epi, the Shepherd Islands (Tongoa and Mataso), Efate (including Lelepa), Erromango, and Tanna. The survey spanned 320 km parallel to the cyclone track between Epi and Tanna encompassing more than 45 sites including the hardest hit settlements. Coastal flooding profiles were surveyed from the shoreline to the limit of inundation. Maximum coastal flood elevations and overland flow depths were measured based on water marks on buildings, scars on trees, rafted debris and corroborated with eyewitness accounts. We surveyed 91 high water marks with characteristic coastal flood levels in the 3 to 7 m range and composed of storm surge with superimposed storm waves. Inundation distances were mostly limited to a few hundred meters but reached 800 m on Epi Island. Wrack lines containing pumice perfectly delineated the

  17. Ocean barrier layers' effect on tropical cyclone intensification.

    PubMed

    Balaguru, Karthik; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R; Leung, L Ruby; Xu, Zhao; Li, Mingkui; Hsieh, Jen-Shan

    2012-09-01

    Improving a tropical cyclone's forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone's path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are "quasi-permanent" features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropical cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity.

  18. Impact of Ocean Barrier Layers on Tropical Cyclone Intensification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balaguru, K.; Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.; Leung, L.

    2012-12-01

    Improving a tropical cyclone's forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone's path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are "quasi-permanent" features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropical cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity.;

  19. Ocean Barrier Layers’ Effect on Tropical Cyclone Intensification

    SciTech Connect

    Balaguru, Karthik; Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Xu, Zhao; Li, M.; Hsieh, J.

    2012-09-04

    Improving a tropical cyclone's forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone's path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are 'quasi-permanent' features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropical cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity.

  20. Sea turtle species vary in their susceptibility to tropical cyclones.

    PubMed

    Pike, David A; Stiner, John C

    2007-08-01

    Severe climatic events affect all species, but there is little quantitative knowledge of how sympatric species react to such situations. We compared the reproductive seasonality of sea turtles that nest sympatrically with their vulnerability to tropical cyclones (in this study, "tropical cyclone" refers to tropical storms and hurricanes), which are increasing in severity due to changes in global climate. Storm surges significantly decreased reproductive output by lowering the number of nests that hatched and the number of hatchlings that emerged from nests, but the severity of this effect varied by species. Leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) began nesting earliest and most offspring hatched before the tropical cyclone season arrived, resulting in little negative effect. Loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nested intermediately, and only nests laid late in the season were inundated with seawater during storm surges. Green turtles (Chelonia mydas) nested last, and their entire nesting season occurred during the tropical cyclone season; this resulted in a majority (79%) of green turtle nests incubating in September, when tropical cyclones are most likely to occur. Since this timing overlaps considerably with the tropical cyclone season, the developing eggs and nests are extremely vulnerable to storm surges. Increases in the severity of tropical cyclones may cause green turtle nesting success to worsen in the future. However, published literature suggests that loggerhead turtles are nesting earlier in the season and shortening their nesting seasons in response to increasing sea surface temperatures caused by global climate change. This may cause loggerhead reproductive success to improve in the future because more nests will hatch before the onset of tropical cyclones. Our data clearly indicate that sympatric species using the same resources are affected differently by tropical cyclones due to slight variations in the seasonal timing of nesting, a key life

  1. Sea turtle species vary in their susceptibility to tropical cyclones.

    PubMed

    Pike, David A; Stiner, John C

    2007-08-01

    Severe climatic events affect all species, but there is little quantitative knowledge of how sympatric species react to such situations. We compared the reproductive seasonality of sea turtles that nest sympatrically with their vulnerability to tropical cyclones (in this study, "tropical cyclone" refers to tropical storms and hurricanes), which are increasing in severity due to changes in global climate. Storm surges significantly decreased reproductive output by lowering the number of nests that hatched and the number of hatchlings that emerged from nests, but the severity of this effect varied by species. Leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) began nesting earliest and most offspring hatched before the tropical cyclone season arrived, resulting in little negative effect. Loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nested intermediately, and only nests laid late in the season were inundated with seawater during storm surges. Green turtles (Chelonia mydas) nested last, and their entire nesting season occurred during the tropical cyclone season; this resulted in a majority (79%) of green turtle nests incubating in September, when tropical cyclones are most likely to occur. Since this timing overlaps considerably with the tropical cyclone season, the developing eggs and nests are extremely vulnerable to storm surges. Increases in the severity of tropical cyclones may cause green turtle nesting success to worsen in the future. However, published literature suggests that loggerhead turtles are nesting earlier in the season and shortening their nesting seasons in response to increasing sea surface temperatures caused by global climate change. This may cause loggerhead reproductive success to improve in the future because more nests will hatch before the onset of tropical cyclones. Our data clearly indicate that sympatric species using the same resources are affected differently by tropical cyclones due to slight variations in the seasonal timing of nesting, a key life

  2. Tropical Cyclone Signatures in Atmospheric Convective Available Potential Energy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Studholme, Joshua; Gulev, Sergey

    2016-04-01

    Tropical cyclones play an important role in the climate system providing transports of energy and water vapor, forcing the ocean, and also affecting mid-latitude circulation phenomena. Tropical cyclone tracks experience strong interannual variability and in addition, longer term trend-like changes in all ocean basins. Analysis of recent historical data reveal a poleward shift in the locations of tropical cyclone tracks in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres (Kossin et al. 2014, Nature, 509, 349-352). The physical consequences of these alterations are largely unconstrained. For example, the increasing encroachment of tropical cyclone activity into the extra-tropical environment presents a novel and still poorly understood paradigm for tropical-extratropical interactions. In this respect, the role that the atmospheric convective available potential energy (CAPE) plays in the dynamics of tropical cyclones is highly interesting. The two characteristic global-scale spatial patterns in CAPE are identified using EOF analysis. The first pattern shows an abundance of CAPE in the centre of the Pacific and corresponds to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. The second one is capturing positive CAPE anomalies in the oceanic tropics and negative anomalies over equatorial Africa. Associated with these buoyancy patterns, alterations in tropical cyclone activity occur in all basins forming both zonal and meridional patterns. Atmospheric buoyancy is the trigger for deep convection, and subsequently cyclone genesis. This is the mechanism of impact upon location at the start of cyclone tracks. It is found to have less impact upon where cyclones subsequently move, whether or not they undergo extratropical transition and when and where they experience lysis. It is shown that CAPE plays a critical role in the general circulation in the tropics which in turn is the larger steering context for embedded systems within the Walker and Hadley cells. So this lack of `latter life' impact

  3. Ocean barrier layers’ effect on tropical cyclone intensification

    PubMed Central

    Balaguru, Karthik; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R.; Leung, L. Ruby; Xu, Zhao; Li, Mingkui; Hsieh, Jen-Shan

    2012-01-01

    Improving a tropical cyclone’s forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone’s path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are “quasi-permanent” features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropical cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity. PMID:22891298

  4. Promoting the confluence of tropical cyclone research.

    PubMed

    Marler, Thomas E

    2015-01-01

    Contributions of biologists to tropical cyclone research may improve by integrating concepts from other disciplines. Employing accumulated cyclone energy into protocols may foster greater integration of ecology and meteorology research. Considering experienced ecosystems as antifragile instead of just resilient may improve cross-referencing among ecological and social scientists. Quantifying ecosystem capital as distinct from ecosystem services may improve integration of tropical cyclone ecology research into the expansive global climate change research community.

  5. Promoting the confluence of tropical cyclone research

    PubMed Central

    Marler, Thomas E

    2015-01-01

    Contributions of biologists to tropical cyclone research may improve by integrating concepts from other disciplines. Employing accumulated cyclone energy into protocols may foster greater integration of ecology and meteorology research. Considering experienced ecosystems as antifragile instead of just resilient may improve cross-referencing among ecological and social scientists. Quantifying ecosystem capital as distinct from ecosystem services may improve integration of tropical cyclone ecology research into the expansive global climate change research community. PMID:26480001

  6. Impacts of tropical cyclones on Fiji and Samoa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuleshov, Yuriy; Prakash, Bipendra; Atalifo, Terry; Waqaicelua, Alipate; Seuseu, Sunny; Ausetalia Titimaea, Mulipola

    2013-04-01

    Weather and climate hazards have significant impacts on Pacific Island Countries. Costs of hazards such as tropical cyclones can be astronomical making enormous negative economic impacts on developing countries. We highlight examples of extreme weather events which have occurred in Fiji and Samoa in the last few decades and have caused major economic and social disruption in the countries. Destructive winds and torrential rain associated with tropical cyclones can bring the most damaging weather conditions to the region causing economic and social hardship, affecting agricultural productivity, infrastructure and economic development which can persist for many years after the initial impact. Analysing historical data, we describe the impacts of tropical cyclones Bebe and Kina on Fiji. Cyclone Bebe (October 1972) affected the whole Fiji especially the Yasawa Islands, Viti Levu and Kadavu where hurricane force winds have been recorded. Nineteen deaths were reported and damage costs caused by cyclone Bebe were estimated as exceeding F20 million (F 1972). Tropical cyclone Kina passed between Fiji's two main islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu, and directly over Levuka on the night of 2 January 1993 with hurricane force winds causing extensive damage. Twenty three deaths have been reported making Kina one of the deadliest hurricanes in Fiji's recent history. Severe flooding on Viti Levu, combined with high tide and heavy seas led to destruction of the Sigatoka and Ba bridges, as well as almost complete loss of crops in Sigatoka and Navua deltas. Overall, damage caused by cyclone Kina was estimated as F170 million. In Samoa, we describe devastation to the country caused by tropical cyclones Ofa (February 1990) and Val (December 1991) which were considered to be the worst cyclones to affect the Samoan islands since the 1889 Apia cyclone. In Samoa, seven people were killed due to cyclone Ofa, thousands of people were left homeless and entire villages were destroyed. Damage

  7. Source of microbaroms from tropical cyclone waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stopa, Justin E.; Cheung, Kwok Fai; GarcéS, Milton A.; Fee, David

    2011-03-01

    Microbaroms are continuous infrasonic signals with a dominant frequency around 0.2 Hz produced by ocean surface waves. Monitoring stations around the globe routinely detect strong microbaroms in the lee of tropical cyclones. We utilize a parametric wind model and a spectral wave model to construct the tropical cyclone wave field and a theoretical acoustic source model to describe the intensity, spatial distribution, and dynamics of microbarom sources. This approach excludes ambient wave conditions and facilitates a parametric analysis to elucidate the source mechanism within the storm. A stationary tropical cyclone produces the strongest microbarom signals at the center, where the waves generated by the cyclonic winds converge. As the tropical cyclone moves forward, the converging wave field becomes less coherent and lags and expands behind the storm center. The models predict a direct relation between the storm forward speed and the location of maximum microbarom source intensity consistent with the infrasonic observations from Hurricane Felicia 2009 in the North Central Pacific.

  8. Interactions between climate and tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webster, P. J.

    2007-05-01

    For the last 50 years, there have been two major thrusts in tropical cyclone research: determining the state of the atmosphere and ocean that is suitable for the formation of tropical storms (the genesis criteria) and short-term forecasting of the track and intensity of storms. Efforts to forecast seasonal storm activity, especially in the North Atlantic Ocean, have been undertaken through empirical means and, more recently, using low-resolution climate models. Climate model results have been exceptionally encouraging suggesting that the tropical cyclogenesis factors are predictable and are part of the large scale tropical circulation. During the last few years, a spate of papers has noted the relationship between changes in sea-surface temperature (SST) and tropical cyclone intensity and frequency. A critical issue is determining to what degree the frequency of hurricanes, as well as their intensity distribution, will change in a warming world. We discuss recent research regarding the interactions of the climate system with tropical cyclones, including the role of climate in determining the genesis of tropical cyclones and the role of tropical cyclones in the heat balance of the planet. Specifically: (i) We re-examine the genesis criteria of tropical cyclones and add two new criteria based on the behavior of waves in a flow varying in longitude and the inertial instability of equatorial flow in a cross-equatorial pressure gradient environment. Tropical cyclones are seen to form where the stretching deformation is negative and where large-scale waves transform into tight smaller and highly energetic scale vortices. We also discuss the tendency for storms to develop and intensify where the near-equatorial flow is inertially unstable. (ii) Tropical cyclones act to cool the tropical oceans by > 1K/year by evaporation of ocean surface water and by entrainment mixing with cooler water from below the mixed layer. We suggest that tropical cyclones are important part of

  9. Measuring Stress in Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, W. T.; Tang, W.

    2015-12-01

    Wind is air in motion and stress is the turbulent transport of momentum between the ocean and the atmosphere. There was no large-scale measurement of stress before the scatterometer and the stress we used was almost entirely derived from wind through a drag coefficient. While the strong wind of a tropical cyclone (TC) causes destruction at landfall, it is the surface stress that drags down the TC. The relations that were established to retrieve moderate wind speeds from the normalized radar cross-section, or backscatter power, measured by Ku-band and C-band scatterometers do not apply well to TC-scale winds. Even if we have good wind measurements, there is a large uncertainty in the drag coefficient in TC. We will give credence to our hypothesis that there is no distinct physics of radar backscatter from ocean surface for weather phenomenon like the TC. The relation between backscatter and surface roughness or stress does not change under TC, and the same retrieval algorithm can be extended to the TC. The need for changes in wind retrieval algorithm is explained through the change of the drag coefficient. We separate the sensor parameters that affect backscatter, such as, incident angle, azimuth angle, polarization and backscatter frequencies, from the secondary factors related to the physics of the air-sea interface and turbulent transport, such as air stability (shear and buoyance), air density, sea states, and sea sprays, and establish a simple approximation of surface stress from the backscatter averaged over the relevant spatial and temporal scales. We established a relation between backscatter and surface stress over a moderate range of wind speed, where wind measurements coincident with satellite observations are abundant, and the drag coefficient is well established to convert wind measurements to stress. This relation is applied to retrieve stress from the scatterometer measurement in the high wind range of TC. With abundant stress measurements by the

  10. How can tropical cyclones survive?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smedman, Ann-Sofi

    2013-04-01

    How can tropical cyclones survive? It is important for understanding the development of tropical cyclones to be able to quantify the exchange of enthalpy and momentum between air and water. Air-sea fluxes are often formulated as drag CD and enthalpy CK exchange coefficients. Emanuel, 1986, derived an expression for potential intensity that depends on local environment parameters and is proportional to the ratio of enthalpy and drag coefficients. This ratio should be larger than 0.75 for a cyclone to develop. There are no direct surface measurements of CK/ CD under hurricane conditions and extrapolation from most open-ocean measurements at 25 m/s gives values of CK/ CD< 0.75 and in that case no cyclone could survive and Emanuel's theory must be wrong. However there are measurements of CK taken over the Baltic Sea and Lake Ontario showing increasing values of CK up to 2.5 for wind speeds around 12 m/s. If this can be implemented for hurricane conditions the ratio CK/ CD>0.75 is in accordance with Emanuel's prediction. The high CK values are observed during situations when there is a regime shift of the structure of turbulence in the boundary layer. From spectral analysis it was found that as the boundary layer approaches neutral stratification, smaller-scale eddies become increasingly important in the turbulent transport of humidity and sensible heat and thus enhance the exchange coefficient CK. This turbulence regime is called the UVCN regime and require high wind speed, small temperature difference between air and water, sufficiently strong wind gradients and growing sea condition ( Smedman et al., 2007, Sahlee et al., 2008). What is the difference between world oceans and enclosed seas? The answer is the waves. The wave field over the open oceans is swell dominated but in enclosed seas and coastal areas swell is restricted mainly to low wind speed conditions, and swell is short lived because of short distances to the shores. When swell is present the MABL will be

  11. LCSs in tropical cyclone genesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rutherford, B.; Montgomery, M. T.

    2011-12-01

    The formation of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic most often occurs at the intersection of the wave trough axis of a westward propagating African easterly wave and the wave critical latitude. Viewed in a moving reference frame with the wave, a cat's eye region of cyclonic recirculation can be seen in streamlines prior to genesis. The cat's eye recirculation region has little strain deformation and its center serves as the focal point for aggregation of convectively generated vertical vorticity. Air inside the cat's eye is repeatedly moistened by convection and is protected from the lateral intrusion of dry air. Since the flow is inherently time-dependent, we contrast the time-dependent structures with Eulerian structures of the wave-relative frame. Time-dependence complicates the kinematic structure of the recirculation region as air masses from the outer environment are allowed to interact with the interior of the cat's eye. LCSs show different boundaries of the cat's eye than the streamlines in the wave-relative frame. These LCSs are particularly important for showing the pathways of air masses that interact with the developing vortex, as moist air promotes development by supporting deep convection, while interaction with dry air impedes development. We primarily use FTLEs to locate the LCSs, and show the role of LCSs in both developing and non-developing storms. In addition, we discuss how the vertical coherence of LCSs is important for resisting the effects of vertical wind shear.

  12. GPM Rain Rates in Tropical Cyclone Pam

    NASA Video Gallery

    NASA-JAXA's GPM Satellite Close-up of Cyclone Pam's Rainfall NASA-JAXA's GPM core satellite captured rain rates in Tropical Cyclone Pam at 03:51 UTC (2:51 p.m. local time) on March 14, 2015. Heavie...

  13. GPM Flyby of Tropical Cyclone Uriah

    NASA Video Gallery

    On Feb. 15, GPM saw rain was falling at a rate of over 127 mm (5 inches) per hour in a band of intense storms south of Tropical Cyclone Uriah's center. Thunderstorms moving around the southwestern ...

  14. Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity.

    PubMed

    Sobel, Adam H; Camargo, Suzana J; Hall, Timothy M; Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K; Wing, Allison A

    2016-07-15

    Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity. We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

  15. Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity.

    PubMed

    Sobel, Adam H; Camargo, Suzana J; Hall, Timothy M; Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K; Wing, Allison A

    2016-07-15

    Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity. We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities. PMID:27418502

  16. Tropical Cyclone Jack in Satellite 3-D

    NASA Video Gallery

    This 3-D flyby from NASA's TRMM satellite of Tropical Cyclone Jack on April 21 shows that some of the thunderstorms were shown by TRMM PR were still reaching height of at least 17 km (10.5 miles). ...

  17. Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Hall, Timothy M.; Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K.; Wing, Allison A.

    2016-07-01

    Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity. We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

  18. Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Hall, Timothy M.; Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K.; Wing, Allison A.

    2016-07-01

    Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity. We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas–driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

  19. Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Hall, Timothy M.; Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K.; Wing, Allison A.

    2016-01-01

    Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity.We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

  20. Australian Tropical Cyclone Activity: Interannual Prediction and Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicholls, N.

    2014-12-01

    It is 35 years since it was first demonstrated that interannual variations in seasonal Australian region tropical cyclone (TC) activity could be predicted using simple indices of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). That demonstration (Nicholls, 1979), which was surprising and unexpected at the time, relied on only 25 years of data (1950-1975), but its later confirmation eventually led to the introduction of operational seasonal tropical cyclone activity. It is worth examining how well the ENSO-TC relationship has performed, over the period since 1975. Changes in observational technology, and even how a tropical cyclone is defined, have affected the empirical relationships between ENSO and seasonal activity, and ways to overcome this in forecasting seasonal activity will be discussed. Such changes also complicate the investigation of long-term trends in cyclone activity. The early work linked cyclone activity to local sea surface temperature thereby leading to the expectation that global warming would result in an increase in cyclone activity. But studies in the 1990s (eg., Nicholls et al., 1998) suggested that such an increase in activity was not occurring, neither in the Australian region nor elsewhere. Trends in Australian tropical cyclone activity will be discussed, and the confounding influence of factors such as changes in observational technologies will be examined. Nicholls, N. 1979. A possible method for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region. Mon. Weath. Rev., 107, 1221-1224 Nicholls, N., Landsea, C., and Gill, J., 1998. Recent trends in Australian region tropical cyclone activity. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 65, 197-205.

  1. Animation of Flood Potential from Two Australian Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Video Gallery

    Merged precipitation data from NASA-JAXA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and other satellites was used to calculate flood potential withrainfall from Tropical Cyclone Lam and Tropical ...

  2. The dynamics and predictability of tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sippel, Jason Allen

    Through methodology unique for tropical cyclones in peer-reviewed literature, this study explores how the dynamics of moist convection affects the predictability of tropical cyclogenesis. Mesoscale models are used to perform short-range ensemble forecasts of a non-developing disturbance in 2004 and Hurricane Humberto in 2007; both of these cases were highly unpredictable. Taking advantage of discrepancies between ensemble members in short-range ensemble forecasts, statistical correlation is used to pinpoint sources of error in forecasts of tropical cyclone formation and intensification. Despite significant differences in methodology, storm environment and development, it is found in both situations that high convective instability (CAPE) and mid-level moisture are two of the most important factors for genesis. In the gulf low, differences in CAPE are related to variance in quasi-geostrophic lift, and in Humberto the differences are related to the degree of interaction between the cyclone and a nearby front. Regardless of the source of CAPE variance, higher CAPE and mid-level moisture combine to yield more active initial convection and more numerous and strong vortical hot towers (VHTs), which incrementally contribute to a stronger vortex. In both cases, strength differences between ensemble members are further amplified by differences in convection that are related to oceanic heat fluxes. Eventually the WISHE mechanism results in even larger ensemble spread, and in the case of Humberto, uncertainty related to the time of landfall drives spread even higher. It is also shown that initial condition differences much smaller than current analysis error can ultimately control whether or not a tropical cyclone forms. Furthermore, even smaller differences govern how the initial vortex is built. Differences in maximum winds and/or vorticity vary nonlinearly with initial condition differences and depend on the timing and intensity of small mesoscale features such as VHTs and

  3. Raindrop Size Distribution Measurements in Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tokay, Ali; Bashor, Paul G.; Habib, Emad; Kasparis, Takis

    2008-01-01

    Characteristics of the raindrop size distribution in seven tropical cyclones have been studied through impact-type disdrometer measurements at three different sites during the 2004-06 Atlantic hurricane seasons. One of the cyclones has been observed at two different sites. High concentrations of small and/or midsize drops were observed in the presence or absence of large drops. Even in the presence of large drops, the maximum drop diameter rarely exceeded 4 mm. These characteristics of raindrop size distribution were observed in all stages of tropical cyclones, unless the storm was in the extratropical stage where the tropical cyclone and a midlatitude frontal system had merged. The presence of relatively high concentrations of large drops in extratropical cyclones resembled the size distribution in continental thunderstorms. The integral rain parameters of drop concentration, liquid water content, and rain rate at fixed reflectivity were therefore lower in extratropical cyclones than in tropical cyclones. In tropical cyclones, at a disdrometercalculated reflectivity of 40 dBZ, the number concentration was 700 plus or minus 100 drops m(sup -3), while the liquid water content and rain rate were 0.90 plus or minus 0.05 g m(sup -3) and 18.5 plus or minus 0.5 mm h(sup -1), respectively. The mean mass diameter, on the other hand, was 1.67 plus or minus 0.3 mm. The comparison of raindrop size distributions between Atlantic tropical cyclones and storms that occurred in the central tropical Pacific island of Roi-Namur revealed that the number density is slightly shifted toward smaller drops, resulting in higher-integral rain parameters and lower mean mass and maximum drop diameters at the latter site. Considering parameterization of the raindrop size distribution in tropical cyclones, characteristics of the normalized gamma distribution parameters were examined with respect to reflectivity. The mean mass diameter increased rapidly with reflectivity, while the normalized

  4. Tropical Cyclone Bejisa Near Madagascar

    NASA Video Gallery

    NASA's TRMM satellite flew over Cyclone Bejisa on December 29, 2013 at 1507 UTC. This 3-D animation of TRMM data revealed strong thunderstorms around Bejisa's center were reaching heights above 16....

  5. Tropical cyclone activity over the Southwest Tropical Indian Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burns, Jessica M.; Subrahmanyam, Bulusu; Nyadjro, Ebenezer S.; Murty, V. S. N.

    2016-08-01

    The Southwest Tropical Indian Ocean (SWTIO) is a key region for air-sea interaction. Tropical cyclones (TCs) regularly form over the SWTIO and subsurface ocean variability influences the cyclogenesis of this region. Tropical cyclone days for this region span from November through April, and peak in January and February during austral summer. Past research provides evidence for more tropical cyclone days over the SWTIO during austral summer (December-June) with a deep thermocline ridge than in austral summer with a shallow thermocline ridge. We have analyzed the Argo temperature data and HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) outputs while focusing on the austral summer of 2012/2013 (a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) year and neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) year) when seven named tropical cyclones developed over the SWTIO region. This study reveals that the climatic events like the IOD and ENSO influence the cyclonic activity and number of TC days over the SWTIO. We ascertain that the IOD events have linkages with the Barrier Layer Thickness (BLT) in the SWTIO region through propagating Rossby waves, and further show that the BLT variability influences the cyclonic activity in this region.

  6. Citizen scientists analyzing tropical cyclone intensities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hennon, Christopher C.

    2012-10-01

    A new crowd sourcing project called CycloneCenter enables the public to analyze historical global tropical cyclone (TC) intensities. The primary goal of CycloneCenter, which launched in mid-September, is to resolve discrepancies in the recent global TC record arising principally from inconsistent development of tropical cyclone intensity data. The historical TC record is composed of data sets called "best tracks," which contain a forecast agency's best assessment of TC tracks and intensities. Best track data have improved in quality since the beginning of the geostationary satellite era in the 1960s (because TCs could no longer disappear from sight). However, a global compilation of best track data (International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS)) has brought to light large interagency differences between some TC best track intensities, even in the recent past [Knapp et al., 2010Knapp et al., 2010]. For example, maximum wind speed estimates for Tropical Cyclone Gay (1989) differed by as much as 70 knots as it was tracked by three different agencies.

  7. On the Relationship between Tropical Moisture Exports and Extratropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knippertz, Peter; Wernli, Heini; Gläser, Gregor; Boleti, Eirini; Joos, Hanna; Binder, Hanin

    2016-04-01

    Tropical moisture export (TME) events are an important element of the global circulation and contribute significantly to regional precipitation. They are defined here on the basis of trajectories starting in the tropical troposphere and reaching a water vapor flux of at least 100 g kg-1 m s-1 poleward of 35° latitude. TME frequency shows four marked occurrence maxima in both hemispheres with varying seasonal cycles. In some cases TMEs can be linked to similar phenomena of atmospheric flow such as Warm Conveyor Belts (WCBs) or Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). For example, 90% of all ARs affecting the US West Coast during December-May are connected to TME events, but the tropical moisture source is less important during the more active AR season June-November. In addition to these climatological TME characteristics we discuss two aspects of their relationship to extratropical cyclones: Case studies indicate that (i) cyclones traveling along the southern fringes of the midlatitude storm track can instigate the export of tropical moisture ahead of their cold fronts, and (ii) the tropical moisture can fuel latent heat release in the cyclone and therefore contribute to its intensification. A long-term statistical analysis of passages of TME trajectories through areas with closed isobars surrounding active cyclones in the northern hemisphere reveals a surprisingly small number of encounters, particularly in winter. The majority of hits occur south of 40°N and there is no statistically significant relationship with cyclone intensification. The results suggest that TMEs often pass relatively far from cyclone centers where vertical motions tend to be moderate. This prevents an early rainout of the tropical moisture and allows the export into higher latitudes. For the same reasons we expect TMEs to "avoid" WCBs with roots at low latitudes. This interpretation is consistent with the fact that most TME maxima are located along the western flanks of subtropical high-pressure systems.

  8. On the Relationship between Tropical Moisture Exports and Extratropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knippertz, P.; Wernli, H.; Gläser, G.; Boleti, E.; Joos, H.; Binder, H.

    2015-12-01

    Tropical moisture export (TME) events are an important element of the global circulation and contribute significantly to regional precipitation. They are defined here on the basis of trajectories starting in the tropical troposphere and reaching a water vapor flux of at least 100 g kg-1 m s-1 poleward of 35° latitude. TME frequency shows four marked occurrence maxima in both hemispheres with varying seasonal cycles. In some cases TMEs can be linked to similar phenomena of atmospheric flow such as Warm Conveyor Belts (WCBs) or Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). For example, 90% of all ARs affecting the US West Coast during December-May are connected to TME events, but the tropical moisture source is less important during the more active AR season June-November. In addition to these climatological TME characteristics we discuss two aspects of their relationship to extratropical cyclones: Case studies indicate that (i) cyclones traveling along the southern fringes of the midlatitude storm track can instigate the export of tropical moisture ahead of their cold fronts, and (ii) the tropical moisture can fuel latent heat release in the cyclone and therefore contribute to its intensification. A long-term statistical analysis of passages of TME trajectories through areas with closed isobars surrounding active cyclones in the northern hemisphere reveals a surprisingly small number of encounters, particularly in winter. The majority of hits occur south of 40°N and there is no statistically significant relationship with cyclone intensification. The results suggest that TMEs often pass relatively far from cyclone centers where vertical motions tend to be moderate. This prevents an early rainout of the tropical moisture and allows the export into higher latitudes. For the same reasons we expect TMEs to "avoid" WCBs with roots at low latitudes. This interpretation is consistent with the fact that most TME maxima are located along the western flanks of subtropical high-pressure systems.

  9. Objective classification of historical tropical cyclone intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chenoweth, Michael

    2007-03-01

    Preinstrumental records of historical tropical cyclone activity require objective methods for accurately categorizing tropical cyclone intensity. Here wind force terms and damage reports from newspaper accounts in the Lesser Antilles and Jamaica for the period 1795-1879 are compared with wind speed estimates calculated from barometric pressure data. A total of 95 separate barometric pressure readings and colocated simultaneous wind force descriptors and wind-induced damage reports are compared. The wind speed estimates from barometric pressure data are taken as the most reliable and serve as a standard to compare against other data. Wind-induced damage reports are used to produce an estimated wind speed range using a modified Fujita scale. Wind force terms are compared with the barometric pressure data to determine if a gale, as used in the contemporary newspapers, is consistent with the modern definition of a gale. Results indicate that the modern definition of a gale (the threshold point separating the classification of a tropical depression from a tropical storm) is equivalent to that in contemporary newspaper accounts. Barometric pressure values are consistent with both reported wind force terms and wind damage on land when the location, speed and direction of movement of the tropical cyclone are determined. Damage reports and derived wind force estimates are consistent with other published results. Biases in ships' logbooks are confirmed and wind force terms of gale strength or greater are identified. These results offer a bridge between the earlier noninstrumental records of tropical cyclones and modern records thereby offering a method of consistently classifying storms in the Caribbean region into tropical depressions, tropical storms, nonmajor and major hurricanes.

  10. Nuclear power plant risk from tropical cyclones

    SciTech Connect

    Gilmore, T.F. )

    1991-01-01

    Tropical cyclones are considered to have a potential for contributing to the overall core-melt frequency at Turkey Point. A tropical cyclone is known to have the four main hazards associated with it: wind, tidal surge, wind-generated missiles, and precipitation. To understand the contribution to overall core-melt risk at Turkey Point, it is essential to understand the mechanisms of these hazards and their relative importance. The results are bounded by the hurricane surge scenario, where the frequency of core melt is equal to the frequency of the surge reaching 19 ft NGVD (National Geographic Vertical Datum). This could be mitigated by potential recovery actions for the tropical cyclone scenario. The probability of the storm surge reaching 19 ft NVGD is estimated to be 1 x 10{sup {minus}4}. The data associated with the tropical cyclones as discussed in detail in the body of this paper are lacking in quantity and quality. By taking the conservative approach in creating the wind/frequency, wind/surge, and surge/frequency relationships, the conclusion that the results are worst case is reasonable. With this in mind, it is logical to conclude that the value of further hazard analysis to narrow down the built-in conservative margin using the existing data and technology is doubtful. Thus, a recovery approach to driving the risk level down is the most pragmatic step to be taken.

  11. A tropical cyclone application for virtual globes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joseph Turk, F.; Hawkins, Jeff; Richardson, Kim; Surratt, Mindy

    2011-01-01

    Within the past ten years, a wide variety of publicly available environmental satellite-based data have become available to users and gained popular exposure in meteorological applications. For example, the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) has maintained a well accepted web-based tropical cyclone (TC) website (NRL TC-Web) with a diverse selection of environmental satellite imagery and products covering worldwide tropical cyclones extending back to 1997. The rapid development of virtual globe technologies provides for an effective framework to efficiently demonstrate meteorological and oceanographic concepts to not only specialized weather forecasters but also to students and the general public. With their emphasis upon geolocated data, virtual globes represent the next evolution beyond the traditional web browser by allowing one to define how, where, and when various data are displayed and dynamically updated. In this article, we describe a virtual globe implementation of the NRL TC-Web satellite data processing system. The resulting NRL Tropical Cyclones on Earth (TC-Earth) application is designed to exploit the capabilities of virtual globe technology to facilitate the display, animation, and layering of multiple environmental satellite imaging and sounding sensors for effective visualization of tropical cyclone evolution. As with the NRL TC-Web, the TC-Earth application is a dynamic, realtime application, driven by the locations of active and historical tropical cyclones. TC-Earth has a simple interface that is designed around a series of placemarks that follow the storm track history. The position coordinates along the storm track are used to map-register imagery and subset other types of information, allowing the user a wide range of freedom to choose data types, overlay combinations, and animations with a minimum number of clicks. TC-Earth enables the user to quickly select and navigate to the storm of interest from the multiple TCs active at anytime around

  12. Training on Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones for Latin American students

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farfán, L. M.; Raga, G. B.

    2009-05-01

    Tropical cyclones are one of the most impressive atmospheric phenomena and their development in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins has potential to affect several Latin-American and Caribbean countries, where human resources are limited. As part of an international research project, we are offering short courses based on the current understanding of tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific basin. Our main goal is to train students from higher-education institutions from various countries in Latin America. Key aspects are tropical cyclone formation and evolution, with particular emphasis on their development off the west coast of Mexico. Our approach includes lectures on tropical cyclone climatology and formation, dynamic and thermodynamic models, air-sea interaction and oceanic response, ocean waves and coastal impacts as well as variability and climate-related predictions. In particular, we use a best-track dataset issued by the United States National Hurricane Center and satellite observations to analyze convective patterns for the period 1970-2006. Case studies that resulted in landfall over northwestern Mexico are analyzed in more detail; this includes systems that developed during the 2006, 2007 and 2008 seasons. Additionally, we have organized a human-dimensions symposium to discuss socio-economic issues that are associated with the landfall of tropical cyclones. This includes coastal zone impact and flooding, the link between cyclones and water resources, the flow of weather and climate information from scientists to policy- makers, the role of emergency managers and decision makers, impact over health issues and the viewpoint of the insurance industry.

  13. Model finds bigger, stronger tropical cyclones with warming seas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2014-03-01

    In the wake of powerful tropical cyclones such as Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina and Typhoon Haiyan, questions about the likely effect of climate change on tropical cyclone activity are on the public's mind. The interactions between global warming and cyclone activity, however, are complex, with rising sea surface temperatures, changing energy distributions, and altered atmospheric dynamics all having some effect.

  14. Cyclone Center: Insights on Historical Tropical Cyclones from Citizen Volunteers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thorne, P.; Hennon, C. C.; Knapp, K. R.; Schreck, C. J., III; Stevens, S. E.; Kossin, J. P.; Rennie, J.; Hennon, P. A.; Kruk, M. C.

    2015-12-01

    The cyclonecenter.org project started in fall 2012 and has been collecting citizen scientist volunteer tropical cyclone intensity estimates ever since. The project is hosted by the Citizen Science Alliance (zooniverse) and the platform is supported by a range of scientists. We have over 30 years of satellite imagery of tropical cyclones but the analysis to date has been done on an ocean-basin by ocean-basin basis and worse still practices have changed over time. We therefore do not, presently, have a homogeneous record relevant for discerning climatic changes. Automated techniques can classify many of the images but have a propensity to be challenged during storm transitions. The problem is fundamentally one where many pairs of eyes are invaluable as there is no substitute for human eyes in discerning patterns. Each image is classified by ten unique users before it is retired. This provides a unique insight into the uncertainty inherent in classification. In the three years of the project much useful data has accrued. This presentation shall highlight some of the results and analyses to date and touch on insights as to what has worked and what perhaps has not worked so well. There are still many images left to complete so its far from too late to jump over to www.cyclonecenter.org and help out.

  15. Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Yanluan; Zhao, Ming; Zhang, Minghua

    2015-01-01

    Tropical cyclone rainfall rates have been projected to increase in a warmer climate. The area coverage of tropical cyclones influences their impact on human lives, yet little is known about how tropical cyclone rainfall area will change in the future. Here, using satellite data and global atmospheric model simulations, we show that tropical cyclone rainfall area is controlled primarily by its environmental sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the tropical mean SST (that is, the relative SST), while rainfall rate increases with increasing absolute SST. Our result is consistent with previous numerical simulations that indicated tight relationships between tropical cyclone size and mid-tropospheric relative humidity. Global statistics of tropical cyclone rainfall area are not expected to change markedly under a warmer climate provided that SST change is relatively uniform, implying that increases in total rainfall will be confined to similar size domains with higher rainfall rates. PMID:25761457

  16. A Simplified Model of Tropical Cyclone Intensification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schubert, W. H.

    2015-12-01

    An axisymmetric model of tropical cyclone intensification is presented. The model is based on Salmon's wave-vortex approximation, which can describe flows with high Rossby number and low Froude number. After introducing an additional approximation designed to filter propagating inertia-gravity waves, the problem is reduced to the prediction of potential vorticity (PV) and the inversion of this PV to obtain the balanced wind and mass fields. This PV prediction/inversion problem is solved analytically for two types of forcing: a two-region model in which there is nonzero forcing in the cyclone core and zero forcing in the far-field; a three-region model in which there is non-zero forcing in both the cyclone core and the eyewall, with zero forcing in the far-field. The solutions of the two-region model provide insight into why tropical cyclones can have long incubation times before rapid intensification and how the size of the mature vortex can be influenced by the size of the initial vortex. The solutions of the three-region model provide insight into the formation of hollow PV structures and the inward movement of angular momentum surfaces across the radius of maximum wind.

  17. Modeling Tropical Cyclone induced inland flooding for Houston metropolitan area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, L.

    2011-12-01

    Tropical cyclones are an important source of extreme precipitation and they have caused destructive inland floods in Texas. The Houston metropolitan area is a highly populated region with rapid economic development. The Bayou River basin was selected as the study area because it covers most of Houston. This study will employ HEC-HMS (a hydrological model) simulate the flood discharge from tropical storm Alison in 2001. The simulated discharge will be compared with observed discharge values for model adjustment and calibration. An iterative process will be used to calibrate the model. Then the flood discharge of another extreme precipitation event (Hurricane Ike) will be calculated from the fitted HEC model. Modeled discharge from both events will be used as inputs for HEC-RAS (a hydraulic model) to generate regional inundation maps. The purposes of this study are: (1) to understand how an urbanized hydrological system in Texas reacts to extreme precipitation brought by Tropical Cyclones, and (2) to construct a reliable model of inland flooding for future applications. Questions will be answered by this study are: What are the similarities and differences in flooding caused by two recent tropical storms that have affected the Houston metro area? Which factor plays a more important role in determining the TC floods intensity, variations in precipitation or changes in land use? Key words: Tropical Cyclone, Hydrological Model, Floods, Houston

  18. Inducing Tropical Cyclones to Undergo Brownian Motion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hodyss, D.; McLay, J.; Moskaitis, J.; Serra, E.

    2014-12-01

    Stochastic parameterization has become commonplace in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models used for probabilistic prediction. Here, a specific stochastic parameterization will be related to the theory of stochastic differential equations and shown to be affected strongly by the choice of stochastic calculus. From an NWP perspective our focus will be on ameliorating a common trait of the ensemble distributions of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks (or position), namely that they generally contain a bias and an underestimate of the variance. With this trait in mind we present a stochastic track variance inflation parameterization. This parameterization makes use of a properly constructed stochastic advection term that follows a TC and induces its position to undergo Brownian motion. A central characteristic of Brownian motion is that its variance increases with time, which allows for an effective inflation of an ensemble's TC track variance. Using this stochastic parameterization we present a comparison of the behavior of TCs from the perspective of the stochastic calculi of Itô and Stratonovich within an operational NWP model. The central difference between these two perspectives as pertains to TCs is shown to be properly predicted by the stochastic calculus and the Itô correction. In the cases presented here these differences will manifest as overly intense TCs, which, depending on the strength of the forcing, could lead to problems with numerical stability and physical realism.

  19. Tropical Cyclones and the Carbon Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zimmerman, N. L.; Emanuel, K.

    2010-12-01

    The relationship between tropical cyclones and the carbon cycle poses an interesting question: tropical surface waters are generally quite warm and poor in nutrients, but the mixing in tropical cyclones entrains potentially large amounts of cold, nutrient-rich water. As the cold anomaly warms, there is a tendency toward over-saturation of carbon dioxide, and thus a net outgassing from the ocean to the atmosphere, but because nutrients are mixed into the photic zone, there is a simultaneous phytoplankton bloom which removes carbon from the mixed layer. The amount of carbon taken up into biota by the induced biological activity can in some cases create a net undersaturation of carbon dioxide in spite of the warming of entrained cold water, and therefore cause a net ingassing of carbon in the wake of a tropical cyclone. This is, however, only a short-term effect. Phytoplankton have a short life cycle, and the detritus they leave behind sinks and remineralizes; that which remineralizes below the climatological mixed layer represents a long-term sink of carbon from the atmosphere to the mixed layer, but the remainder will quickly return to the atmosphere. Both the warming of the mixed layer and the induced phytoplankton bloom are easily observable, but neither the sign nor the magnitude of the net effect is intuitive. To illuminate the question, a simple one-dimensional model is formulated which simulates the behavior of the upper few hundred meters of the ocean in response to tropical cyclone-induced mixing. Phytoplankton (and its remains), Nitrate, and Dissolved Inorganic Carbon are tracked, and the model is both initialized and forced with the best possible approximation to real chemical concentrations, winds, and heat fluxes, and the effect of the storm is estimated by comparing model behavior with the storm included and with the storm removed from observations. It is shown that the model performs acceptably well compared to such observations as exist. The model is

  20. Do Tropical Cyclones Shape Shorebird Habitat Patterns? Biogeoclimatology of Snowy Plovers in Florida

    PubMed Central

    Convertino, Matteo; Elsner, James B.; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael; Kiker, Gregory A.; Martinez, Christopher J.; Fischer, Richard A.; Linkov, Igor

    2011-01-01

    Background The Gulf coastal ecosystems in Florida are foci of the highest species richness of imperiled shoreline dependent birds in the USA. However environmental processes that affect their macroecological patterns, like occupancy and abundance, are not well unraveled. In Florida the Snowy Plover (Charadrius alexandrinus nivosus) is resident along northern and western white sandy estuarine/ocean beaches and is considered a state-threatened species. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we show that favorable nesting areas along the Florida Gulf coastline are located in regions impacted relatively more frequently by tropical cyclones. The odds of Snowy Plover nesting in these areas during the spring following a tropical cyclone impact are seven times higher compared to the odds during the spring following a season without a cyclone. The only intensity of a tropical cyclone does not appear to be a significant factor affecting breeding populations. Conclusions/Significance Nevertheless a future climate scenario featuring fewer, but more extreme cyclones could result in a decrease in the breeding Snowy Plover population and its breeding range. This is because the spatio-temporal frequency of cyclone events was found to significantly affect nest abundance. Due to the similar geographic range and habitat suitability, and no decrease in nest abundance of other shorebirds in Florida after the cyclone season, our results suggest a common bioclimatic feedback between shorebird abundance and tropical cyclones in breeding areas which are affected by cyclones. PMID:21264268

  1. Dynamics of vortex Rossby waves in tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nikitina, Lidia

    This thesis describes an analytical study of vortex Rossby waves in tropical cyclones. Observational analyses of hurricanes in the tropical atmosphere indicate the existence of spiral rainbands which propagate outwards from the eye and affect the structure and intensity of the hurricane. These disturbances may be described as vortex Rossby waves. The aim of this research is to study the propagation of vortex Rossby waves in tropical cyclones and wave-mean-flow interactions near the critical radius where the mean flow angular velocity matches the phase speed of the waves. Depending on the wave magnitude, the problem can be linear or nonlinear. Analytical techniques including Laplace transforms, multiple scaling and asymptotic expansions are used to obtain approximate solutions of the governing linear and nonlinear equations. In this study we carry out asymptotic analyses to examine the evolution of the interactions near the critical radius in some two-dimensional configurations on an f-plane and a beta-plane. The results are used to explain some features of the tropical cyclone's development, namely, the change of angular wind in the critical layer, the secondary eyewall formation and the eyewall dynamics.

  2. Tropical cyclone intensities from satellite microwave data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vonderhaar, T. H.; Kidder, S. Q.

    1980-01-01

    Radial profiles of mean 1000 mb to 250 mb temperature from the Nimbus 6 scanning microwave spectrometer (SCAMS) were constructed around eight intensifying tropical storms in the western Pacific. Seven storms showed distinct inward temperature gradients required for intensification; the eighth displayed no inward gradient and was decaying 24 hours later. The possibility that satellite data might be used to forecast tropical cyclone turning motion was investigated using estimates obtained from Nimbus 6 SCAMS data tapes of the mean 1000 mb to 250 mb temperature field around eleven tropical storms in 1975. Analysis of these data show that for turning storms, in all but one case, the turn was signaled 24 hours in advance by a significant temperature gradient perpendicular to the storm's path, at a distance of 9 deg to 13 deg in front of the storm. A thresholding technique was applied to the North Central U.S. during the summer to estimate precipitation frequency. except

  3. Space options for tropical cyclone hazard mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dicaire, Isabelle; Nakamura, Ryoko; Arikawa, Yoshihisa; Okada, Kazuyuki; Itahashi, Takamasa; Summerer, Leopold

    2015-02-01

    This paper investigates potential space options for mitigating the impact of tropical cyclones on cities and civilians. Ground-based techniques combined with space-based remote sensing instrumentation are presented together with space-borne concepts employing space solar power technology. Two space-borne mitigation options are considered: atmospheric warming based on microwave irradiation and laser-induced cloud seeding based on laser power transfer. Finally technology roadmaps dedicated to the space-borne options are presented, including a detailed discussion on the technological viability and technology readiness level of our proposed systems. Based on these assessments, the space-borne cyclone mitigation options presented in this paper may be established in a quarter of a century.

  4. Coastal Hazard due to Tropical Cyclones in Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silva-Casarin, R.; Mendoza-Baldwin, E.; Marino-Tapia, I.; Enriquez, C.; Ruiz, G.; Escalante-MAncera, E.; Ruíz-Rentería, F.

    2013-05-01

    The Mexican coast is hit every year by at least 3 cyclones and it is affected for nearly 59 hours a year on average; this induces undesirable consequences, such as coastal erosion and flooding. To evaluate the hazard to which the coastal zone is exposes, a historical characterization of atmospheric conditions (surface winds and pressure conditions of the storms), waves (wave heights and their associated wave periods) and flooding levels due to tropical storms for more than 60 years is presented. The atmospheric and wave conditions were evaluated using a modification of the original parametric Hydromet-Rankin Vortex Model by Bretschneider (1990) and Holland (1980) as presented by Silva, et al. (2002). The flooding levels caused by hurricanes were estimated using a two-dimensional, vertically averaged finite volume model to evaluate the storm surge, Posada et al. (2008). The cyclone model was compared to the data series of 29 cyclones recorded by buoys of the National Data Buoy Center-NOAA and some data recorded in shallow waters near Cancun, Mexico and the flooding model was compared with observed data from Cancun, Mexico; both models gave good results. For the extreme analyses of wind, wave heights and maximum flooding levels on the Mexican coasts, maps of the scale and location parameters used in the Weibull cumulative distribution function and numerical results for different return periods are provided. The historical occurrence of tropical storms is also revised as some studies indicate that the average intensity of tropical cyclones is increasing; no definite trends pointing to an increase in storm frequency or intensity were found. What was in fact found is that although there are more cyclones in the Pacific Ocean and these persist longer, the intensity of the cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean is greater affecting. In any case, the strong necessity of avoiding storm induced coastal damage (erosion and flooding) is reflected in numerous works, such as this one

  5. Tropical Cyclone Interactions Within Central American Gyres

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papin, P. P.; Bosart, L. F.; Torn, R. D.

    2014-12-01

    Central American gyres (CAGs) are broad (~1000 km diameter) low-level cyclonic circulations that organize over Central America during the tropical cyclone (TC) season. While CAGs have rarely been studied, prior work on similar circulations has been conducted on monsoon depressions (MDs) and monsoon gyres (MGs), which possess spatial scales of 1000 - 2500 km in the west Pacific basin. A key difference between MDs and MGs is related to the organization of vorticity around the low-level circulation. MDs possess a symmetrical vorticity pattern where vorticity accumulates near the circulation center over time, occasionally developing into a large TC. In contrast, MGs possess asymmetrical vorticity, organized in mesovorticies, which rotate cyclonically along the periphery of the MG circulation. Small tropical cyclones (TCs) occasionally develop from these mesovorticies. Interaction and development of TCs within CAGs are also common, as noted by a CAG identified during the 2010 PREDICT field project, which involved the interaction of TC Matthew and the development of TC Nicole within the larger CAG. This project is motivated by the lack of prior research on CAGs, as well as the complex scale interactions that occasionally occur between TCs and CAGs. This presentation focuses on the mutual interaction of vortices embedded in the larger-scale cyclonic flow comprising the CAG circulation. Case studies will be presented using a circulation framework to illustrate the relationship between different scale vorticity elements within the CAG. Some of these case studies resemble a MD-like evolution, where a large TC develops through the accumulation of symmetrical vorticity around the CAG (e.g. TC Opal 1995, TC Frances 1998). Other instances resemble a MG-like evolution, where smaller mesovorticies rotate around a common circulation center (e.g. TC Florence 1988). The circulation analysis framework aids in the diagnosis of interaction between different scale cyclonic vortices, and

  6. Entropy Convective Flux for Tropical Cyclone Haiyan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pegahfar, Nafiseh; Gharaylou, Maryam; Ghafarian, Parvin

    2016-07-01

    It is well-known that the environmental factors control tropical cyclones (TCs). one of the most considered thermodynamical parameters is entropy that its significant role on tropical cyclogenesis and TC intensification has been professionally focused in some recent research studies. In the current work, two data sets including satellite data and NCEP-GFS data have been used to investigate the entropy parameter and its convective flux, during tropical cyclone Haiyan (TCH) occurred on 3-11 November 2013 and nominated as the strongest TC over Pacific Ocean before 2014. This purpose has been proceeded for three domain areas with different size. These domains cover inner, eyewall and rainbands, and environmental regions of TCH at various pressure levels. Also three terms of entropy vertical flux including dissipative heating, surface entropy flux and difference between entropy values over inner and outer regions have been analyzed. Our obtained results showed relatively similar behavior of averaged entropy over all selected domain, but with a delay and decrease in maximum values for the smaller domains. In addition our findings revealed different considerable contributions for three terms of entropy vertical flux.

  7. NASA Sees Heavy Rainfall, Hot Towers in Tropical Cyclone Nathan

    NASA Video Gallery

    NASA-JAXA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission or TRMM satellite showed that the heaviest rainfall occurring in Tropical Cyclone Nathan on March 18 at 0758 UTC (3:58 a.m. EDT) was falling at a rat...

  8. Lessons learnt from tropical cyclone losses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Honegger, Caspar; Wüest, Marc; Zimmerli, Peter; Schoeck, Konrad

    2016-04-01

    Swiss Re has a long history in developing natural catastrophe loss models. The tropical cyclone USA and China model are examples for event-based models in their second generation. Both are based on basin-wide probabilistic track sets and calculate explicitly the losses from the sub-perils wind and storm surge in an insurance portfolio. Based on these models, we present two cases studies. China: a view on recent typhoon loss history Over the last 20 years only very few major tropical cyclones have caused severe insurance losses in the Pearl River Delta region and Shanghai, the two main exposure clusters along China's southeast coast. Several storms have made landfall in China every year but most struck areas with relatively low insured values. With this study, we make the point that typhoon landfalls in China have a strong hit-or-miss character and available insured loss experience is too short to form a representative view of risk. Historical storm tracks and a simple loss model applied to a market portfolio - all from publicly available data - are sufficient to illustrate this. An event-based probabilistic model is necessary for a reliable judgement of the typhoon risk in China. New York: current and future tropical cyclone risk In the aftermath of hurricane Sandy 2012, Swiss Re supported the City of New York in identifying ways to significantly improve the resilience to severe weather and climate change. Swiss Re provided a quantitative assessment of potential climate related risks facing the city as well as measures that could reduce those impacts.

  9. Emergency Department Presentations following Tropical Cyclone Yasi

    PubMed Central

    Aitken, Peter; Franklin, Richard Charles; Lawlor, Jenine; Mitchell, Rob; Watt, Kerrianne; Furyk, Jeremy; Small, Niall; Lovegrove, Leone; Leggat, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Emergency departments see an increase in cases during cyclones. The aim of this study is to describe patient presentations to the Emergency Department (ED) of a tertiary level hospital (Townsville) following a tropical cyclone (Yasi). Specific areas of focus include changes in: patient demographics (age and gender), triage categories, and classification of diseases. Methods Data were extracted from the Townsville Hospitals ED information system (EDIS) for three periods in 2009, 2010 and 2011 to coincide with formation of Cyclone Yasi (31 January 2011) to six days after Yasi crossed the coast line (8 February 2012). The analysis explored the changes in ICD10-AM 4-character classification and presented at the Chapter level. Results There was a marked increase in the number of patients attending the ED during Yasi, particularly those aged over 65 years with a maximum daily attendance of 372 patients on 4 Feb 2011. The most marked increases were in: Triage categories - 4 and 5; and ICD categories - diseases of the skin and subcutaneous tissue (L00-L99), and factors influencing health care status (Z00-Z99). The most common diagnostic presentation across all years was injury (S00-T98). Discussion There was an increase in presentations to the ED of TTH, which peaked in the first 24 – 48 hours following the cyclone and returned to normal over a five-day period. The changes in presentations were mostly an amplification of normal attendance patterns with some altered areas of activity. Injury patterns are similar to overseas experience. PMID:26111010

  10. Stratified coastal ocean interactions with tropical cyclones

    PubMed Central

    Glenn, S. M.; Miles, T. N.; Seroka, G. N.; Xu, Y.; Forney, R. K.; Yu, F.; Roarty, H.; Schofield, O.; Kohut, J.

    2016-01-01

    Hurricane-intensity forecast improvements currently lag the progress achieved for hurricane tracks. Integrated ocean observations and simulations during hurricane Irene (2011) reveal that the wind-forced two-layer circulation of the stratified coastal ocean, and resultant shear-induced mixing, led to significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling (at least 6 °C and up to 11 °C) over a wide swath of the continental shelf. Atmospheric simulations establish this cooling as the missing contribution required to reproduce Irene's accelerated intensity reduction. Historical buoys from 1985 to 2015 show that ahead-of-eye-centre cooling occurred beneath all 11 tropical cyclones that traversed the Mid-Atlantic Bight continental shelf during stratified summer conditions. A Yellow Sea buoy similarly revealed significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling during Typhoon Muifa (2011). These findings establish that including realistic coastal baroclinic processes in forecasts of storm intensity and impacts will be increasingly critical to mid-latitude population centres as sea levels rise and tropical cyclone maximum intensities migrate poleward. PMID:26953963

  11. Stratified coastal ocean interactions with tropical cyclones.

    PubMed

    Glenn, S M; Miles, T N; Seroka, G N; Xu, Y; Forney, R K; Yu, F; Roarty, H; Schofield, O; Kohut, J

    2016-01-01

    Hurricane-intensity forecast improvements currently lag the progress achieved for hurricane tracks. Integrated ocean observations and simulations during hurricane Irene (2011) reveal that the wind-forced two-layer circulation of the stratified coastal ocean, and resultant shear-induced mixing, led to significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling (at least 6 °C and up to 11 °C) over a wide swath of the continental shelf. Atmospheric simulations establish this cooling as the missing contribution required to reproduce Irene's accelerated intensity reduction. Historical buoys from 1985 to 2015 show that ahead-of-eye-centre cooling occurred beneath all 11 tropical cyclones that traversed the Mid-Atlantic Bight continental shelf during stratified summer conditions. A Yellow Sea buoy similarly revealed significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling during Typhoon Muifa (2011). These findings establish that including realistic coastal baroclinic processes in forecasts of storm intensity and impacts will be increasingly critical to mid-latitude population centres as sea levels rise and tropical cyclone maximum intensities migrate poleward. PMID:26953963

  12. Stratified coastal ocean interactions with tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glenn, S. M.; Miles, T. N.; Seroka, G. N.; Xu, Y.; Forney, R. K.; Yu, F.; Roarty, H.; Schofield, O.; Kohut, J.

    2016-03-01

    Hurricane-intensity forecast improvements currently lag the progress achieved for hurricane tracks. Integrated ocean observations and simulations during hurricane Irene (2011) reveal that the wind-forced two-layer circulation of the stratified coastal ocean, and resultant shear-induced mixing, led to significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling (at least 6 °C and up to 11 °C) over a wide swath of the continental shelf. Atmospheric simulations establish this cooling as the missing contribution required to reproduce Irene's accelerated intensity reduction. Historical buoys from 1985 to 2015 show that ahead-of-eye-centre cooling occurred beneath all 11 tropical cyclones that traversed the Mid-Atlantic Bight continental shelf during stratified summer conditions. A Yellow Sea buoy similarly revealed significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling during Typhoon Muifa (2011). These findings establish that including realistic coastal baroclinic processes in forecasts of storm intensity and impacts will be increasingly critical to mid-latitude population centres as sea levels rise and tropical cyclone maximum intensities migrate poleward.

  13. Stratified coastal ocean interactions with tropical cyclones.

    PubMed

    Glenn, S M; Miles, T N; Seroka, G N; Xu, Y; Forney, R K; Yu, F; Roarty, H; Schofield, O; Kohut, J

    2016-01-01

    Hurricane-intensity forecast improvements currently lag the progress achieved for hurricane tracks. Integrated ocean observations and simulations during hurricane Irene (2011) reveal that the wind-forced two-layer circulation of the stratified coastal ocean, and resultant shear-induced mixing, led to significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling (at least 6 °C and up to 11 °C) over a wide swath of the continental shelf. Atmospheric simulations establish this cooling as the missing contribution required to reproduce Irene's accelerated intensity reduction. Historical buoys from 1985 to 2015 show that ahead-of-eye-centre cooling occurred beneath all 11 tropical cyclones that traversed the Mid-Atlantic Bight continental shelf during stratified summer conditions. A Yellow Sea buoy similarly revealed significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling during Typhoon Muifa (2011). These findings establish that including realistic coastal baroclinic processes in forecasts of storm intensity and impacts will be increasingly critical to mid-latitude population centres as sea levels rise and tropical cyclone maximum intensities migrate poleward.

  14. Remote forcing of water levels by tropical cyclones in southwest Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eliot, Matthew; Pattiaratchi, Charitha

    2010-08-01

    Tropical cyclones (termed hurricanes and typhoons in other regions), are extreme events associated with strong winds, torrential rain and storm surges (in coastal areas) and cause extensive damage as a result of strong winds and flooding (caused by either heavy rainfall or ocean storm surges) in the immediate area of impact. The eastern Indian Ocean, particularly in the northwest region of Australia, is impacted by up to 10 tropical cyclones during the cyclone season, although direct impact of cyclones along the west and southwest coastlines is rare. However, the sub-tidal frequency component of sea level records along the west and south coasts of Western Australia indicates lagged correspondence with the occurrence of tropical cyclones. It is demonstrated that the tropical cyclones generate a continental shelf wave which travels along the west and south coasts of Australia up to 3500 km with speeds of 450-500 km day -1 (5.2-5.8 ms -1) with maximum trough to crest wave height of 0.63 m, comparable with the mean daily tidal range in the region. The shelf wave is identified in the coastal sea level records, initially as a decrease in water level, 1-2 days after the passage of the cyclone and has a period of influence up to 10 days. Amplitude of the shelf wave was strongly affected by the path of the tropical cyclone, with cyclones travelling parallel to the west coast typically producing the most significant signal due to resonance and superposition with local forcing. Analysis of water levels from Port Hedland, Geraldton, Fremantle and Albany together with cyclone paths over a ten year period (1988-1998) indicated that the tropical cyclones paths may be classified into 6 different types based on the amplitude of the wave.

  15. Tropical cyclone Pam coastal impact survey in Vanuatu

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fritz, H. M.; Pilarczyk, J.; Kosciuch, T. J.; Hong, I.; Rarai, A.; Harrison, M. J.; Jockley, F. R.; Horton, B.

    2015-12-01

    Severe tropical cyclone Pam (Cat. 5, SSHS) crossed the Vanuatu archipelago with sustained winds of 270 km/h on March 13 and 14, 2015 and made landfall on Erromango. Pam caused the worst natural disaster in Vanuatu's recorded history since severe tropical cyclone Uma in 1987. Eleven fatalities were directly attributed to cyclone Pam and mostly due to lack of shelter from airborne debris. On March 6 Pam formed east of the Santa Cruz Islands and intensified while tracking southward along Vanuatu severely affecting the Shefa and Tafea Provinces. An international storm surge reconnaissance team was deployed to Vanuatu from June 3 to 17, 2015 to complement earlier local surveys. Cyclone Pam struck a remote island archipelago particularly vulnerable to the combined cyclonic multi-hazards encompassing extreme wind gusts, massive rainfall and coastal flooding due to a combination of storm surge and storm wave impacts. The team surveyed coastal villages on Epi, the Shepherd Islands (Tongoa and Mataso), Efate (including Lelepa), Erromango, and Tanna. The survey spanned 320 km parallel to the cyclone track between Epi and Tanna encompassing more than 45 sites including the hardest hit settlements. Coastal flooding profiles were surveyed from the shoreline to the limit of inundation. Maximum coastal flood elevations and overland flow depths were measured based on water marks on buildings, scars on trees, rafted debris and corroborated with eyewitness accounts. We surveyed 91 high water marks with characteristic coastal flood levels in the 3 to 7 m range and composed of storm surge with superimposed storm waves. Inundation distances were mostly limited to a few hundred meters. Coral boulders of more than 1 m diameter were measured on Erromango and sediment samples were collected at key sites across the archipelago. Infrastructure damage on traditional and modern structures was assessed. Eyewitnesses were interviewed at most sites to document the chronology of the wind and

  16. Arabian Sea tropical cyclones intensified by emissions of black carbon and other aerosols.

    PubMed

    Evan, Amato T; Kossin, James P; Chung, Chul Eddy; Ramanathan, V

    2011-11-02

    Throughout the year, average sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea are warm enough to support the development of tropical cyclones, but the atmospheric monsoon circulation and associated strong vertical wind shear limits cyclone development and intensification, only permitting a pre-monsoon and post-monsoon period for cyclogenesis. Thus a recent increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones over the northern Indian Ocean is thought to be related to the weakening of the climatological vertical wind shear. At the same time, anthropogenic emissions of aerosols have increased sixfold since the 1930s, leading to a weakening of the southwesterly lower-level and easterly upper-level winds that define the monsoonal circulation over the Arabian Sea. In principle, this aerosol-driven circulation modification could affect tropical cyclone intensity over the Arabian Sea, but so far no such linkage has been shown. Here we report an increase in the intensity of pre-monsoon Arabian Sea tropical cyclones during the period 1979-2010, and show that this change in storm strength is a consequence of a simultaneous upward trend in anthropogenic black carbon and sulphate emissions. We use a combination of observational, reanalysis and model data to demonstrate that the anomalous circulation, which is radiatively forced by these anthropogenic aerosols, reduces the basin-wide vertical wind shear, creating an environment more favourable for tropical cyclone intensification. Because most Arabian Sea tropical cyclones make landfall, our results suggest an additional impact on human health from regional air pollution.

  17. A Technique for Estimating Recurrence Intervals of Tropical Cyclone-Related High Winds in the Tropics: Results for Guam.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rupp, John A.; Lander, Mark A.

    1996-05-01

    The authors develop a technique that applies models of the radial profile of the wind in tropical cyclones to historical best-track databases of tropical cyclones, in order to estimate the wind (at 1-h intervals) experienced at any selected tropical location for any or all of the historical tropical cyclones affecting the location. When these estimated winds are condensed into a time series of the highest annual tropical cyclone-related wind, extreme value analysis can be applied in order to calculate the recurrence intervals of extreme wind speeds.The island of Guam, located at a low latitude in the western North Pacific, was selected as a site for testing the technique. Guam has historical measurements of tropical cyclone-related wind, from which an independent estimate of the recurrence intervals of extreme wind speeds was obtained. In addition, wind traces during the passage of three major typhoons that affected Guam were used to assess the ability of the technique to reproduce an accurate hourly time series of the winds experienced during the passage of these typhoons.For Guam, the recurrence intervals calculated from the time series of wind yielded by the authors' technique closely match those computed from the wind measurements. The technique also reproduces a reasonable wind trace for the three major typhoons affecting Guam. Given its successful validation when applied to Guam, we believe that this technique can be used to make useful estimates of the recurrence intervals of tropical cyclone-related high wind speeds at any coastal tropical location where in situ wind measurements may he lacking, but where an historical best-track archive of tropical cyclone track and intensity exists.

  18. Projecting global tropical cyclone economic damages with validation of tropical cyclone economic damage model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iseri, Y.; Iwasaki, A.; Miyazaki, C.; Kanae, S.

    2014-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) sometimes cause serious damages to human society and thus possible changes of TC properties in the future have been concerned. In fact, the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) mentions likely increasing in intensity and rain rate of TCs. In addition, future change of socioeconomic condition (e.g. population growth) might worsen TC impacts in the future. Thereby, in this study, we developed regression models to estimate economic damages by TCs (hereafter TC damage model), and employed those models to project TC economic damages under several future climate and socioeconomic scenarios. We developed the TC damage models for each of 4 regions; western North Pacific, North American, North Indian, and Southern Hemisphere. The inputs for TC damage model are tropical cyclone central pressure, populations in the area exposed by tropical cyclone wind, and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita. The TC damage models we firstly developed tended to overestimate very low damages and also underestimate very high damages. Thereby we modified structure of TC damage models to improve model performance, and then executed extensive validation of the model. The modified model presented better performance in estimating very low and high TC damages. After the modification and validation of the model, we determined the structure of TC damage models and projected TC economic damages. The result indicated increase in TC economic damage in global scale, while TC economic damage against world GDP would decrease in the future, which result is consistent with previous study.

  19. Tropical cyclone recurvature: An intrinsic property?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chan, Kelvin T. F.; Chan, Johnny C. L.

    2016-08-01

    The typical track of a tropical cyclone (TC) in the Northern Hemisphere is an initial northwestward movement followed by an eventual turning toward the east. Such turning is referred to as recurvature and often explained by the change of the environmental flow that steers the TC. Here we show that even in the absence of background flow, a TC initiated at a high enough latitude can recurve itself. Differential horizontal advection of the planetary vorticity by the TC circulation at different vertical levels leads to the development of vertical wind shear, upper tropospheric anticyclone, and asymmetric distribution of convection. The flow associated with the upper tropospheric anticyclone on the equatorward side of the TC and the diabatic heating associated with the asymmetric convection combine to cause the TC to recurve. Such knowledge, an intrinsic recurvature property of the TC is important in forecasting the TC track when the environmental flow is weak.

  20. Asymmetric and axisymmetric dynamics of tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Persing, J.; Montgomery, M. T.; McWilliams, J. C.; Smith, R. K.

    2013-05-01

    We present the results of idealized numerical experiments to examine the difference between tropical cyclone evolution in three-dimensional (3-D) and axisymmetric (AX) model configurations. We focus on the prototype problem for intensification, which considers the evolution of an initially unsaturated AX vortex in gradient-wind balance on an f-plane. Consistent with findings of previous work, the mature intensity in the 3-D model is reduced relative to that in the AX model. In contrast with previous interpretations invoking barotropic instability and related horizontal mixing processes as a mechanism detrimental to the spin-up process, the results indicate that 3-D eddy processes associated with vortical plume structures can assist the intensification process by contributing to a radial contraction of the maximum tangential velocity and to a vertical extension of tangential winds through the depth of the troposphere. These plumes contribute significantly also to the azimuthally-averaged heating rate and the corresponding azimuthal-mean overturning circulation. The comparisons show that the resolved 3-D eddy momentum fluxes above the boundary layer exhibit counter-gradient characteristics and are generally not represented properly by the subgrid-scale parameterizations in the AX configuration. The resolved eddy fluxes act to support the contraction and intensification of the maximum tangential winds. The comparisons indicate fundamental differences between convective organization in the 3-D and AX configurations for meteorologically relevant forecast time scales. While the radial and vertical gradients of the system-scale angular rotation provide a hostile environment for deep convection in the 3-D model, with a corresponding tendency to strain the convective elements in the tangential direction, deep convection in the AX model does not suffer this tendency. Also, since during the 3-D intensification process the convection has not yet organized into annular rings

  1. Asymmetric and axisymmetric dynamics of tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Persing, J.; Montgomery, M. T.; McWilliams, J. C.; Smith, R. K.

    2013-12-01

    We present the results of idealized numerical experiments to examine the difference between tropical cyclone evolution in three-dimensional (3-D) and axisymmetric (AX) model configurations. We focus on the prototype problem for intensification, which considers the evolution of an initially unsaturated AX vortex in gradient-wind balance on an f plane. Consistent with findings of previous work, the mature intensity in the 3-D model is reduced relative to that in the AX model. In contrast with previous interpretations invoking barotropic instability and related horizontal mixing processes as a mechanism detrimental to the spin-up process, the results indicate that 3-D eddy processes associated with vortical plume structures can assist the intensification process by contributing to a radial contraction of the maximum tangential velocity and to a vertical extension of tangential winds through the depth of the troposphere. These plumes contribute significantly also to the azimuthally averaged heating rate and the corresponding azimuthal-mean overturning circulation. The comparisons show that the resolved 3-D eddy momentum fluxes above the boundary layer exhibit counter-gradient characteristics during a key spin-up period, and more generally are not solely diffusive. The effects of these eddies are thus not properly represented by the subgrid-scale parameterizations in the AX configuration. The resolved eddy fluxes act to support the contraction and intensification of the maximum tangential winds. The comparisons indicate fundamental differences between convective organization in the 3-D and AX configurations for meteorologically relevant forecast timescales. While the radial and vertical gradients of the system-scale angular rotation provide a hostile environment for deep convection in the 3-D model, with a corresponding tendency to strain the convective elements in the tangential direction, deep convection in the AX model does not suffer this tendency. Also, since

  2. Coastal flooding by tropical cyclones and sea-level rise.

    PubMed

    Woodruff, Jonathan D; Irish, Jennifer L; Camargo, Suzana J

    2013-12-01

    The future impacts of climate change on landfalling tropical cyclones are unclear. Regardless of this uncertainty, flooding by tropical cyclones will increase as a result of accelerated sea-level rise. Under similar rates of rapid sea-level rise during the early Holocene epoch most low-lying sedimentary coastlines were generally much less resilient to storm impacts. Society must learn to live with a rapidly evolving shoreline that is increasingly prone to flooding from tropical cyclones. These impacts can be mitigated partly with adaptive strategies, which include careful stewardship of sediments and reductions in human-induced land subsidence.

  3. Examining Tropical Cyclone - Kelvin Wave Interactions using Adjoint Diagnostics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reynolds, C. A.; Doyle, J. D.; Hong, X.

    2015-12-01

    Adjoint-based tools can provide valuable insight into the mechanisms that influence the evolution and predictability of atmospheric phenomena, as they allow for the efficient and rigorous computation of forecast sensitivity to changes in the initial state. We apply adjoint-based tools from the non-hydrostatic Coupled Atmosphere/Ocean Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) to explore the initial-state sensitivity and interactions between a tropical cyclone and atmospheric equatorial waves associated with the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the Indian Ocean during the DYNAMO field campaign. The development of Tropical Cyclone 5 (TC05) coincided with the passage of an equatorial Kelvin wave and westerly wind burst associated with an MJO that developed in the Indian Ocean in late November 2011, but it was unclear if and how one affected the other. COAMPS 24-h and 36-h adjoint sensitivities are analyzed for both TC05 and the equatorial waves to understand how the evolution of each system is sensitive to the other. The sensitivity of equatorial westerlies in the western Indian Ocean on 23 November shares characteristics with the classic Gill (1980) Rossby and Kelvin wave response to symmetric heating about the equator, including symmetric cyclonic circulations to the north and south of the westerlies, and enhanced heating in the area of convergence between the equatorial westerlies and easterlies. In addition, there is sensitivity in the Bay of Bengal associated with the cyclonic circulation that eventually develops into TC05. At the same time, the developing TC05 system shows strongest sensitivity to local wind and heating perturbations, but sensitivity to the equatorial westerlies is also clear. On 24 November, when the Kelvin wave is immediately south of the developing tropical cyclone, both phenomena are sensitive to each other. On 25 November TC05 no longer shows sensitivity to the Kelvin wave, while the Kelvin Wave still exhibits some weak sensitivity to TC05. In

  4. Analysis of medical needs during disasters caused by tropical cyclones: anticipated injury patterns.

    PubMed

    Noji, E K

    1993-12-01

    This paper is a summary of the data for describing the distribution of injuries among people affected by tropical cyclones that have occurred during the past 20 years. The most striking feature of the data gathered from a review of the epidemiologic literature on tropical cyclones is its lack of uniformity. The absence of an international classification and coding scheme for recording injuries sustained in cyclones also makes planning medical assistance difficult following future cyclones and hurricanes. We propose here a simple injury classification scheme comprising three components for categorizing injury data. Such a standardized disaster injury classification scheme, coupled with other types of information about injuries, will greatly aid relief officials in efficiently matching available resources to needs, in effectively managing health relief operations, and in developing strategies to prevent future cyclone-related morbidity and mortality.

  5. Changes in North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Tropical Cyclones Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andronache, C.; Phillips, V.

    2009-12-01

    The variability in the activity of North Atlantic tropical cyclones at seasonal scales, and beyond, has been linked to significant changes in the ocean - atmosphere system. The dominant factors affecting the development of North Atlantic tropical cyclones are: sea surface temperature (SST), surface pressure, atmospheric instability, humidity, and vertical shear of the mean flow. Changes in such factors at climate time-scales modulate the frequency of tropical cyclones and their most destructive manifestation, namely the hurricanes. Some of these changes have been observed to be linked to large-scale perturbations, such as ENSO, and other ocean - atmosphere oscillations and teleconnections. This study reports findings on changes in SST anomalies and their possible links to tropical cyclones. Using SST data over the last six decades, we illustrate statistical connections by applying novel mathematical techniques between the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and tropical cyclones. Possible interactions between AMO, climate change and the fate of tropical cyclones are discussed in the context of recent advances in climate research.

  6. Storm-centric view of Tropical Cyclone oceanic wakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gentemann, C. L.; Scott, J. P.; Smith, D.

    2012-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) have a dramatic impact on the upper ocean. Storm-generated oceanic mixing, high amplitude near-inertial currents, upwelling, and heat fluxes often warm or cool the surface ocean temperatures over large regions near tropical cyclones. These SST anomalies occur to the right (Northern Hemisphere) or left (Southern Hemisphere) of the storm track, varying along and across the storm track. These wide swaths of temperature change have been previously documented by in situ field programs as well as IR and visible satellite data. The amplitude, temporal and spatial variability of these surface temperature anomalies depend primarily upon the storm size, storm intensity, translational velocity, and the underlying ocean conditions. Tropical cyclone 'cold wakes' are usually 2 - 5 °C cooler than pre-storm SSTs, and persist for days to weeks. Since storms that occur in rapid succession typically follow similar paths, the cold wake from one storm can affect development of subsequent storms. Recent studies, on both warm and cold wakes, have mostly focused on small subsets of global storms because of the amount of work it takes to co-locate different data sources to a storm's location. While a number of hurricane/typhoon websites exist that co-locate various datasets to TC locations, none provide 3-dimensional temporal and spatial structure of the ocean-atmosphere necessary to study cold/warm wake development and impact. We are developing a global 3-dimensional storm centric database for TC research. The database we propose will include in situ data, satellite data, and model analyses. Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) has a widely-used storm watch archive which provides the user an interface for visually analyzing collocated NASA Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) winds with GHRSST microwave SSTs and SSM/I, TMI or AMSR-E rain rates for all global tropical cyclones 1999-2009. We will build on this concept of bringing together different data near storm locations when

  7. Rainfall Totals from the Tropical Cyclones Passing Over Philippines

    NASA Video Gallery

    Rainfall totals from the TRMM satellite of all tropical cyclones that passed through the Philippines from January through November 11, 2013. Red indicated areas where rainfall totals were greater t...

  8. Tropical Cyclone Mahasen Rain Moving Into Bay Of Bengal

    NASA Video Gallery

    This animated TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis shows the rainfall that occurred with Tropical Cyclone Mahasen during the week of May 6 through 13, 2013 as it moved through the Bay of Beng...

  9. NASA Sees Heavy Rain in Arabian Sea Tropical Cyclone

    NASA Video Gallery

    On June 29, GPM showed Tropical Cyclone 02A had a few powerful convective thunderstorms southwest of the center of circulation were dropping rain at the extreme rate of over 209 mm (8.2 inches) per...

  10. TRMM Sees Rainfall Totals from Tropical Cyclone Guito

    NASA Video Gallery

    This animation of rainfall gathered from February 11-19, 2014 by NASA's TRMM satellite revealed that Tropical Cyclone Guito produced as much as 16.9 inches/430 mm of rainfall in the center of the M...

  11. The contribution of tropical cyclones to rainfall in Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agustín Breña-Naranjo, J.; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrián; Pozos-Estrada, Oscar; Jiménez-López, Salma A.; López-López, Marco R.

    Investigating the contribution of tropical cyclones to the terrestrial water cycle can help quantify the benefits and hazards caused by the rainfall generated from this type of hydro-meteorological event. Rainfall induced by tropical cyclones can enhance both flood risk and groundwater recharge, and it is therefore important to characterise its minimum, mean and maximum contributions to a region or country's water balance. This work evaluates the rainfall contribution of tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes across Mexico from 1998 to 2013 using the satellite-derived precipitation dataset TMPA 3B42. Additionally, the sensitivity of rainfall to other datasets was assessed: the national rain gauge observation network, real-time satellite rainfall and a merged product that combines rain gauges with non-calibrated space-borne rainfall measurements. The lower Baja California peninsula had the highest contribution from cyclonic rainfall in relative terms (∼40% of its total annual rainfall), whereas the contributions in the rest of the country showed a low-to-medium dependence on tropical cyclones, with mean values ranging from 0% to 20%. In quantitative terms, southern regions of Mexico can receive more than 2400 mm of cyclonic rainfall during years with significant TC activity. Moreover, (a) the number of tropical cyclones impacting Mexico has been significantly increasing since 1998, but cyclonic contributions in relative and quantitative terms have not been increasing, and (b) wind speed and rainfall intensity during cyclones are not highly correlated. Future work should evaluate the impacts of such contributions on surface and groundwater hydrological processes and connect the knowledge gaps between the magnitude of tropical cyclones, flood hazards, and economic losses.

  12. Tropical Cyclone Monty Strikes Western Australia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2004-01-01

    The Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) acquired these natural color images and cloud top height measurements for Monty before and after the storm made landfall over the remote Pilbara region of Western Australia, on February 29 and March 2, 2004 (shown as the left and right-hand image sets, respectively). On February 29, Monty was upgraded to category 4 cyclone status. After traveling inland about 300 kilometers to the south, the cyclonic circulation had decayed considerably, although category 3 force winds were reported on the ground. Some parts of the drought-affected Pilbara region received more than 300 millimeters of rainfall, and serious and extensive flooding has occurred.

    The natural color images cover much of the same area, although the right-hand panels are offset slightly to the east. Automated stereoscopic processing of data from multiple MISR cameras was utilized to produce the cloud-top height fields. The distinctive spatial patterns of the clouds provide the necessary contrast to enable automated feature matching between images acquired at different view angles. The height retrievals are at this stage uncorrected for the effects of the high winds associated with cyclone rotation. Areas where heights could not be retrieved are shown in dark gray.

    The Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer observes the daylit Earth continuously and every 9 days views the entire globe between 82 degrees north and 82 degrees south latitude. These data products were generated from a portion of the imagery acquired during Terra orbits 22335 and 22364. The panels cover an area of about 380 kilometers x 985 kilometers, and utilize data from blocks 105 to 111 within World Reference System-2 paths 115 and 113.

    MISR was built and is managed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, for NASA's Office of Earth Science, Washington, DC. The Terra satellite is managed by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD. JPL is a division of the

  13. The Intensification of Sheared Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nguyen, Leon Trungduong

    Environmental vertical wind shear has been shown to have a generally detrimental impact on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change. However, many cases of rapidly intensifying (RI) sheared TCs have been observed, and TCs in moderate (5-10 m s-1) shear often have the largest intensity forecast errors. Thus, advancing the understanding of TC-shear interactions is vital to improving TC intensity forecasts, which have not seen much improvement over the past few decades. This dissertation employs both observational and high-resolution numerical modeling approaches to investigate how some TCs are able to resist shear and intensify. The rapid intensification of Hurricane Irene (1999) was studied using observations, while the short-term RI of Tropical Storm Gabrielle (2001) was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model run at 1-km horizontal resolution. Both storms exhibited a downshear-left vortex tilt and a marked azimuthal wavenumber-1 convective asymmetry. However, the azimuthally averaged diabatic heating also increased, suggesting that TC intensity may be more sensitive to the azimuthally averaged component of diabatic heating rather than the asymmetric component. Furthermore, this increase occurred within the radius of maximum winds (RMW), a region theorized to favor rapid spinup of the vortex. A key difference between the Irene and Gabrielle cases was that the latter underwent a downshear reformation. The circulation associated with an intense mesovortex and other localized cyclonic vorticity anomalies comprised a developing "inner vortex" on the downshear-left (downtilt) periphery of the broader parent vortex. This inner vortex was nearly upright within a parent vortex that was tilted significantly with height. The inner vortex became the dominant vortex of the system, advecting and absorbing the broad, tilted parent vortex. A method was developed for diagnosing vortex tilt in the simulation. The reduction of TC vortex tilt from 65 km to 20 km

  14. Tropical cyclone intensity change. A quantitative forecasting scheme

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dropco, K. M.; Gray, W. M.

    1981-01-01

    One to two day future tropical cyclone intensity change from both a composite and an individual case point-of-view are discussed. Tropical cyclones occurring in the Gulf of Mexico during the period 1957-1977 form the primary data source. Weather charts of the NW Atlantic were initially examined, but few differences were found between intensifying and non-intensifying cyclones. A rawinsonde composite analysis detected composite differences in the 200 mb height fields, the 850 mb temperature fields, the 200 mb zonal wind and the vertical shears of the zonal wind. The individual cyclones which make up the composite study were then separately examined using this composite case knowledge. Similar parameter differences were found in a majority of individual cases. A cyclone intensity change forecast scheme was tested against independent storm cases. Correct predictions of intensification or non-intensification could be made approximately 75% of the time.

  15. Budget Comparison of Parameterized Microphysical Processes in Tropical Cyclone Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michelson, Sara A.; Bao, Jian-Wen; Grell, Evelyn D.

    2015-04-01

    sedimentation. We will show that the hydrometeor budget analysis of the four schemes indicates that the assumed pathways to the production of frozen hydrometeors are quite sensitive to the amount of available super-cooled rain water and, thus, the uncertainties in the parameterized warm-rain processes can affect the intensification and structure of the model-simulated tropical cyclone. Furthermore, we will show that the results from this study strongly suggest that the advantage of double-moment formulations can be overshadowed by the uncertainties in the spectral definition of individual hydrometeor categories and spectrum-dependent microphysical processes.

  16. Extra-tropical Cyclones and Windstorms in Seasonal Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Befort, Daniel J.; Weisheimer, Antje; Knight, Jeff; Thornton, Hazel; Roberts, Julia; Hermanson, Leon

    2015-04-01

    Severe damages and large insured losses over Europe related to natural phenomena are mostly caused by extra-tropical cyclones and their related windstorm fields. Thus, an adequate representation of these events in seasonal prediction systems and reliable forecasts up to a season in advance would be of high value for society and economy. In this study, state-of-the-art seasonal forecast prediction systems are analysed (ECMWF, UK Met Office) regarding the general climatological representation and the seasonal prediction of extra-tropical cyclones and windstorms during the core winter season (DJF) with a lead time of up to four months. Two different algorithms are used to identify cyclones and windstorm events in these datasets. Firstly, we apply a cyclone identification and tracking algorithm based on the Laplacian of MSLP and secondly, we use an objective wind field tracking algorithm to identify and track continuous areas of extreme high wind speeds (cf. Leckebusch et al., 2008), which can be related to extra-tropical winter cyclones. Thus, for the first time, we can analyse the forecast of severe wind events near to the surface caused by extra-tropical cyclones. First results suggest a successful validation of the spatial climatological distributions of wind storm and cyclone occurrence in the seasonal forecast systems in comparison with reanalysis data (ECMWF-ERA40 & ERAInterim) in general. However, large biases are found for some areas. The skill of the seasonal forecast systems in simulating the year-to-year variability of the frequency of severe windstorm events and cyclones is investigated using the ranked probability skill score. Positive skill is found over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere as well as for the most intense extra-tropical cyclones and its related wind fields.

  17. Tropical cyclone motion and recurvature in TCM-90. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Fitzpatrick, M.E.

    1992-01-01

    Rawinsonde and satellite data collected during the Tropical Cyclone Motion (TCM90) experiment, which was conducted during the summer of 1990 in the Western North pacific, is used to examine tropical cyclone steering motion and recurvature. TCM-90 composite results are compared with those found in a composite study using twenty-one years (1957-77) of Western North Pacific rawinsonde data during the same August-September period and also for all months during this same 21-year period. Both data sets indicate that the composite deep-layer-mean (850-300 mb) winds 5-7 deg from the cyclone center provide an important component of the steering flow for tropical cyclones. However, despite the rawinsonde data enhancements of the TCM-90 experiment, data limitations prevented an accurate observation of steering flow conditions at individual time periods or for the average of only 5-10 time periods when composited together.

  18. Characterization of flash floods induced by tropical cyclones in Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Real-Rangel, R. A.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.

    2015-12-01

    This study investigates the role of tropical cyclones (hurricanes, tropical storms and depressions) in the generation of flash floods in Mexico. For this, a severity assessment during several cyclonic events for selected catchments was estimated through the evaluation of a flash flood index recently proposed by Kim and Kim (2014). This classification is revised, considering the forcing and areal extent of torrential rainfall generated by the incidence of tropical cyclones on the studied catchments, enabling the further study of the flood regime in catchments located in tropical regions. The analysis incorporates characteristics of the flood hydrographs such as the hydrograph shape (rising curve gradient, magnitude of the peak discharge and flood response time) in order to identify flash-flood prone areas. Results show the Qp-A scaling relationship in catchments that were impacted by tropical cyclones, enabling their comparison against floods generated by other meteorological events (e.g. convective and orographic storms). Results will inform on how peak flows relationships are modified by cyclonic events and highlighting the contribution of cyclonic precipitation to flash-flooding susceptibility.

  19. Cloud Condensation Nuclei Measurements in Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hudson, J. G.; Simpson, J.

    2002-01-01

    The first measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) within and around tropical cyclones were made with the Desert Research Institute (DRI) CCN spectrometer (Hudson 1909) from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft throughout the 2001 season. Two penetrations of the closed eye of Hurricane Erin off the northeast US coast on Sept. 10 showed concentrations consistently well in excess of 1000 per cubic cm at approximately 1.4% supersaturation. Simultaneous condensation nuclei (CN--total particle) concentrations were consistently well in excess of 2000 per cubic cm throughout these closed eye penetrations. These within eye measurements at 4 km altitude for exceeded CCN and CN measurements just outside of the storm at similar altitudes--300 and 600 per cubic cm respectively. These CCN and CN concentrations within this closed eye were far above concentrations in maritime air masses; they are characteristic of continental or polluted air masses. Although there was a possibility that Saharan duct may have gotten into this storm these sub tenth micrometer particles are much too small and much too numerous to be dust. Such high concentrations may have originated from European air pollution, which may have been transported by similar airflow patterns to those that carry Saharan dust across the Atlantic. These high concentrations may be a manifestation of descending air that brings higher concentrations that are often characteristic of the upper troposphere (Clarke and Kapustin 2002). Later in the month measurements in Humberto showed highly variable CCN and CN concentrations that ranged from lots than 5 per cubic cm to more than 1000 per Cubic cm over km scale distances within and around the open eye of this tropical storm/hurricane. These very low concentrations suggest strong cloud scavenging.

  20. Tropical cyclones in reanalysis data sets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murakami, Hiroyuki

    2014-03-01

    This study evaluates and compares tropical cyclones (TCs) in state-of-the-art reanalysis data sets including the following: the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), Japanese 25-year Reanalysis, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-40, Interim Reanalysis, National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, and NASA's Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA). Most of the reanalyses reproduce a reasonable global spatial distribution of observed TCs and temporal interannual variation of total TC frequency. Of the six reanalysis data sets, JRA-55 appears to be the best in terms of the following: the highest skill for spatial and temporal distribution of TC frequency of occurrence, highest TC hitting rate, lower false alarm rate, reasonable TC structure in terms of the relationship between maximum surface wind speed and sea level pressure, and higher correlation coefficients for interannual variations of TC frequency. These results also suggest that the finest-resolution reanalysis data sets, like MERRA, are not always the best in terms of TC climatology.

  1. Observed strong currents under global tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Yu-Chia; Tseng, Ruo-Shan; Chu, Peter C.; Chen, Jau-Ming; Centurioni, Luca R.

    2016-07-01

    Global data from drifters of the Surface Velocity Program (Niiler, 2001) and tropical cyclones (TCs) from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and National Hurricane Center were analyzed to demonstrate strong ocean currents and their characteristics under various storm intensities in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Mean TC's translation speed (Uh) is faster in the NH (~ 4.7 m s- 1) than in the SH (~ 4.0 m s- 1), owing to the fact that TCs are more intense in the NH than in the SH. The rightward (leftward) bias of ocean mixed-layer (OML) velocity occurs in the NH (SH). As a result of this slower Uh and thus a smaller Froude number in the SH, the flow patterns in the SH under the same intensity levels of TCs are more symmetric relative to the TC center and the OML velocities are stronger. This study provides the first characterization of the near-surface OML velocity response to all recorded TCs in the SH from direct velocity measurements.

  2. Trends in Tropical Cyclone Impact: A Study in Andhra Pradesh, India.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raghavan, S.; Rajesh, S.

    2003-05-01

    Contrary to the common perception that tropical cyclones are on the increase, due perhaps to global warming, studies all over the world show that, although there are decadal variations, there is no definite long-term trend in the frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones over the period of about a century for which data are available. There is, nevertheless, a sharp increase in the socio-economic impact of tropical cyclones in the form of increasing property damage. An analysis of cyclones affecting the state of Andhra Pradesh, India, in the last quarter century by normalizing cyclone damage for economic and demographic factors shows that here, as elsewhere, the greater vulnerability is attributable mainly to these factors and not to any increase in frequency or intensity of cyclones. The decrease of alertness in disaster management that often occurs after a few years' lull in occurrence of cyclones, known as the "fading memory syndrome," also contributes to increases in loss of lives and property damage. This distinction between meteorological and socio-economic causes for the increased impact is important to avoid a tendency for political and administrative decision makers to blame natural causes. They have to take these realities into account, not just in developing a vigilant disaster management system, but in land-use planning, development of coastal districts, and insurance measures.

  3. Archive Compiles New Resource for Global Tropical Cyclone Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knapp, Kenneth R.; Kruk, Michael C.; Levinson, David H.; Gibney, Ethan J.

    2009-02-01

    The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) compiles tropical cyclone best track data from 11 tropical cyclone forecast centers around the globe, producing a unified global best track data set (M. C. Kruk et al., A technique for merging global tropical cyclone best track data, submitted to Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 2008). Best track data (so called because the data generally refer to the best estimate of a storm's characteristics) include the position, maximum sustained winds, and minimum central pressure of a tropical cyclone at 6-hour intervals. Despite the significant impact of tropical cyclones on society and natural systems, there had been no central repository maintained for global best track data prior to the development of IBTrACS in 2008. The data set, which builds upon the efforts of the international tropical forecasting community, has become the most comprehensive global best track data set publicly available. IBTrACS was created by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NOAA NCDC) under the auspices of the World Data Center for Meteorology.

  4. Contrasting tropical cyclone and non-tropical cyclone related rainfall drop size distribution at Darwin, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deo, Anil; Walsh, Kevin J. E.

    2016-11-01

    In this study the rainfall drop size distribution (DSD) during the passage of seven tropical cyclones (TCs) over Darwin is compared and contrasted with that associated with non-tropical cyclone (non-TC) events, using the impact disdrometer data at the Darwin Atmospheric Radiation and Measurement (ARM) site. The disparity of the DSD with respect to rainfall types (between TC and non-TC conditions) and distance from TC centre is also examined. It is shown that TC DSDs are statistically different from the non-TC DSDs, the former encompassing a larger concentration of small to moderate drop sizes. The TC mass-weighted mean diameter (Dm) is lower than the non-TC values at all rain rates and also for the different precipitation types (convective, transition and stratiform). The TC DSD varies with distance from the TC centre, as rainfall near the TC centre (< 60 km) comprises of relatively smaller drops which are strongly evident at small to moderate rain rates (< 30 mm h- 1). Such variations in the DSD have implications for the parameters used in the algorithm that converts radar reflectivity to rainfall rate in TCs, as well as for the analytical expressions used in describing the observed DSD employed in cloud modelling parameterizations.

  5. Tropical Cyclones in Simulations of the Middle Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korty, R. L.; Zamora, R. A.; Camargo, S. J.; Toomey, M.

    2015-12-01

    The environmental conditions that support and sustain tropical cyclones are affected by the amount of solar radiation incident on the tropics, which varies on millennial timescales owing to orbital variations. During the middle Holocene, higher amounts of summer solar radiation 6000 years ago (6ka) increased thermal stability and pools of hot, dry air in the tropical troposphere, rendering the thermodynamic environment less favorable than in modern times. (The opposite response is seen in the Southern Hemisphere, where January-March anomalies yield more conducive conditions 6ka there than today.) Here we compare these changes in environmental conditions to tropical storms simulated by two distinct methods as well as to available geologic evidence from the middle Holocene. We find that storms directly spawned by global climate models respond to the changes as the thermodynamic environment predicts: a reduction 6ka in Northern Hemisphere, with an increase 6ka in the Southern Hemisphere. We derive an empirical genesis index that identifies the best fit between environmental conditions and the response in genesis. We also compare the results to storms generated using the statistical downscaling method pioneered by Emanuel. Here too the events similarly respond to the changes in the environmental conditions, but the amplitude of the changes is smaller than seen in the global climate models. We discuss some possible reasons for the differences as well as their implications for studies applying these methods to 21st century climate.

  6. Satellite-based Tropical Cyclone Monitoring Capabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hawkins, J.; Richardson, K.; Surratt, M.; Yang, S.; Lee, T. F.; Sampson, C. R.; Solbrig, J.; Kuciauskas, A. P.; Miller, S. D.; Kent, J.

    2012-12-01

    Satellite remote sensing capabilities to monitor tropical cyclone (TC) location, structure, and intensity have evolved by utilizing a combination of operational and research and development (R&D) sensors. The microwave imagers from the operational Defense Meteorological Satellite Program [Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS)] form the "base" for structure observations due to their ability to view through upper-level clouds, modest size swaths and ability to capture most storm structure features. The NASA TRMM microwave imager and precipitation radar continue their 15+ yearlong missions in serving the TC warning and research communities. The cessation of NASA's QuikSCAT satellite after more than a decade of service is sorely missed, but India's OceanSat-2 scatterometer is now providing crucial ocean surface wind vectors in addition to the Navy's WindSat ocean surface wind vector retrievals. Another Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) onboard EUMETSAT's MetOp-2 satellite is slated for launch soon. Passive microwave imagery has received a much needed boost with the launch of the French/Indian Megha Tropiques imager in September 2011, basically greatly supplementing the very successful NASA TRMM pathfinder with a larger swath and more frequent temporal sampling. While initial data issues have delayed data utilization, current news indicates this data will be available in 2013. Future NASA Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) sensors starting in 2014 will provide enhanced capabilities. Also, the inclusion of the new microwave sounder data from the NPP ATMS (Oct 2011) will assist in mapping TC convective structures. The National Polar orbiting Partnership (NPP) program's VIIRS sensor includes a day night band (DNB) with the capability to view TC cloud structure at night when sufficient lunar illumination exits. Examples highlighting this new capability will be discussed in concert with additional data fusion efforts.

  7. Thermodynamic Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Z.

    2012-12-01

    The thermodynamic aspects of tropical cyclone (TC) formation near the center of the wave pouch, a region of approximately closed Lagrangian circulation within the wave critical layer, are examined through diagnoses of a high-resolution numerical simulation and dropsonde data from a recent field campaign. It is found that the meso-β area near the pouch center is characterized by high saturation fraction, small difference in equivalent potential temperature (θe) between the surface and the middle troposphere, and a short incubation time scale. Updrafts tend to be more vigorous in this region, presumably due to reduced dry air entrainment, while downdrafts are not suppressed. The thermodynamic conditions near the pouch center are thus critically important for TC formation. The balanced responses to convective and stratiform heating at the pre-genesis stage are examined using the Sawyer-Eliassen equation. Deep convection is concentrated near the pouch center. The strong radial and vertical gradients of latent heat release effectively force the transverse circulation and spin up a surface proto-vortex near the pouch center. Stratiform heating induces modest mid-level inflow and very weak low-level outflow, which contributes to the mid-level spin-up without substantially spinning down the low-level circulation. The analysis of dropsonde data shows that the mid-level θe increases significantly near the pouch center one to two days prior to genesis but changes little away from the pouch center. This may indicate convective organization and the impending TC genesis. It also suggests that the critical information of TC genesis near the pouch center may be masked out if a spatial average is taken over the pouch scale. Time-radius plots of (a) saturation fraction (SF; units: %), (b) θe difference between 950 mb and 700 mb (950 mb "minus" 700 hPa; units: K), and (c) χm in the numerical model simulation of Felix.

  8. Sea surface signature of tropical cyclones using microwave remote sensing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kil, Bumjun; Burrage, Derek; Wesson, Joel; Howden, Stephan

    2013-06-01

    Measuring the sea surface during tropical cyclones (TC) is challenging due to severe weather conditions that prevent shipboard measurements and clouds which mask the sea surface for visible satellite sensors. However, sea surface emission in the microwave L-band can penetrate rain and clouds and be measured from space. The European Space Agency (ESA) MIRAS L-band radiometer on the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite enables a view of the sea surface from which the effects of tropical cyclones on sea surface emissivity can be measured. The emissivity at these frequencies is a function of sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface roughness, polarization, and angle of emission. If the latter four variables can be estimated, then models of the sea surface emissivity can be used to invert SSS from measured brightness temperature (TB). Actual measured TB from space also has affects due to the ionosphere and troposphere, which have to be compensated for, and components due to the galactic and cosmic background radiation those have to be removed. In this research, we study the relationships between retrieved SSS from MIRAS, and SST and precipitation collected by the NASA TMI sensor from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite during Hurricane Isaac, in August 2012. During the slower movement of the storm, just before landfall on the vicinity of the Louisiana Shelf, higher precipitation amounts were associated with lower SSS and slightly increased SST. This increased trend of SST and lower SSS under regions of high precipitation are indicative of inhibited vertical mixing. The SMOS Level 2 SSS were filtered by a stepwise process with removal of high uncertainty in TB under conditions of strong surface roughness which are known to create noise. The signature of increased SST associated with increasing precipitation was associated with decreased SSS during the storm. Although further research is required, this study

  9. On the relationship between atmospheric water vapour transport and extra-tropical cyclones development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferreira, Juan A.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Ramos, Alexandre M.

    2016-08-01

    In this study we seek to investigate the role of atmospheric water vapour on the intensification of extra-tropical cyclones over the North Atlantic Ocean and more specifically to investigate the linkage between atmospheric rivers' conditions leading to the explosive development of extra-tropical cyclones. Several WRF-ARW simulations for three recent extra-tropical storms that had major negative socio-economic impacts in the Iberian Peninsula and south-western Europe (Klaus, 2009; Gong, 2013 and Stephanie, 2014) are performed in which the water vapour content of the initial and boundary conditions are tuned. Analyses of the vertically integrated vapour transport show the dependence of the storms' development on atmospheric water vapour. In addition, results also show changes in the shape of the jet stream resulting in a reduction of the upper wind divergence, which in turn affects the intensification of the extra-tropical cyclones studied. This study suggests that atmospheric rivers tend to favour the conditions for explosive extra-tropical storms' development in the three case studies, as simulations performed without the existence of atmospheric rivers produce shallow mid-latitude cyclones, that is, cyclones that are not so intense as those on the reference simulations.

  10. Tropical Cyclone Kesiny northeast of Madagascar, Indian Ocean

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    Tropical Cyclone Kesiny can be seen over the Indian Ocean in this true color image taken on May 6, 2002, at 6:45 UTC by the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), flying aboard NASA's Terra spacecraft. When this image was taken, the cyclone was several hundred miles east of northern Madagascar and packing winds of up to 120 kilometers (75 miles) per hour. As the cyclone continues its approach southwest into Madagascar, it is forecast to increase in intensity and generate sustained winds of up to 139 kilometers (86 miles) per hour. Credit: Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA/GSFC

  11. Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones and its ecosystem impacts.

    PubMed

    Mumby, Peter J; Vitolo, Renato; Stephenson, David B

    2011-10-25

    Tropical cyclones have massive economic, social, and ecological impacts, and models of their occurrence influence many planning activities from setting insurance premiums to conservation planning. Most impact models allow for geographically varying cyclone rates but assume that individual storm events occur randomly with constant rate in time. This study analyzes the statistical properties of Atlantic tropical cyclones and shows that local cyclone counts vary in time, with periods of elevated activity followed by relative quiescence. Such temporal clustering is particularly strong in the Caribbean Sea, along the coasts of Belize, Honduras, Costa Rica, Jamaica, the southwest of Haiti, and in the main hurricane development region in the North Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean. Failing to recognize this natural nonstationarity in cyclone rates can give inaccurate impact predictions. We demonstrate this by exploring cyclone impacts on coral reefs. For a given cyclone rate, we find that clustered events have a less detrimental impact than independent random events. Predictions using a standard random hurricane model were overly pessimistic, predicting reef degradation more than a decade earlier than that expected under clustered disturbance. The presence of clustering allows coral reefs more time to recover to healthier states, but the impacts of clustering will vary from one ecosystem to another. PMID:22006300

  12. Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones and its ecosystem impacts

    PubMed Central

    Mumby, Peter J.; Vitolo, Renato; Stephenson, David B.

    2011-01-01

    Tropical cyclones have massive economic, social, and ecological impacts, and models of their occurrence influence many planning activities from setting insurance premiums to conservation planning. Most impact models allow for geographically varying cyclone rates but assume that individual storm events occur randomly with constant rate in time. This study analyzes the statistical properties of Atlantic tropical cyclones and shows that local cyclone counts vary in time, with periods of elevated activity followed by relative quiescence. Such temporal clustering is particularly strong in the Caribbean Sea, along the coasts of Belize, Honduras, Costa Rica, Jamaica, the southwest of Haiti, and in the main hurricane development region in the North Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean. Failing to recognize this natural nonstationarity in cyclone rates can give inaccurate impact predictions. We demonstrate this by exploring cyclone impacts on coral reefs. For a given cyclone rate, we find that clustered events have a less detrimental impact than independent random events. Predictions using a standard random hurricane model were overly pessimistic, predicting reef degradation more than a decade earlier than that expected under clustered disturbance. The presence of clustering allows coral reefs more time to recover to healthier states, but the impacts of clustering will vary from one ecosystem to another. PMID:22006300

  13. Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones and its ecosystem impacts.

    PubMed

    Mumby, Peter J; Vitolo, Renato; Stephenson, David B

    2011-10-25

    Tropical cyclones have massive economic, social, and ecological impacts, and models of their occurrence influence many planning activities from setting insurance premiums to conservation planning. Most impact models allow for geographically varying cyclone rates but assume that individual storm events occur randomly with constant rate in time. This study analyzes the statistical properties of Atlantic tropical cyclones and shows that local cyclone counts vary in time, with periods of elevated activity followed by relative quiescence. Such temporal clustering is particularly strong in the Caribbean Sea, along the coasts of Belize, Honduras, Costa Rica, Jamaica, the southwest of Haiti, and in the main hurricane development region in the North Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean. Failing to recognize this natural nonstationarity in cyclone rates can give inaccurate impact predictions. We demonstrate this by exploring cyclone impacts on coral reefs. For a given cyclone rate, we find that clustered events have a less detrimental impact than independent random events. Predictions using a standard random hurricane model were overly pessimistic, predicting reef degradation more than a decade earlier than that expected under clustered disturbance. The presence of clustering allows coral reefs more time to recover to healthier states, but the impacts of clustering will vary from one ecosystem to another.

  14. Cyclone Driven Sediment Loads in a Tropical Mega-River.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Darby, Stephen; Leyland, Julian; Hackney, Christopher; Heasley, Eleanore; Kummu, Matti; Lauri, Hannu; Parsons, Daniel; Nicholas, Andrew; Aalto, Rolf; Best, Jim

    2015-04-01

    Understanding the links between environmental change and sediment transport in the mega-rivers that dominate the flux of terrestrial sediment to their deltas and oceans remains a major challenge. Many large river systems display significant seasonality in flow regime, which is affected to a greater or lesser degree by the influence of large tropical storms, which act to increase their variability and thus drive uncertainty in predicting the impacts associated with changes in future flow regimes. Here we demonstrate the significance of tropical storms in driving sediment flux from one of the world's largest rivers, the Mekong, to its delta. Data was collected at Kratie, Cambodia; this being the site of the Mekong's final reliable flow gauging station before the Mekong delta. Suspended sediment fluxes were estimated by calibrating acoustic backscatter returns from an acoustic Doppler current profiler to observed suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) across a monsoon cycle. The retrieved SSCs were combined with flow velocity estimates to recover the sediment flux. These estimates of flux were then used to build sediment rating curves to predict suspended flux as a function of flow discharge. A hydrological model, VMod, was then used to estimate daily discharge values for the same historical period, but for a scenario in which the effects of tropical storms on the flow regime are isolated. This was achieved by forcing the hydrological model with daily precipitation values that account for precipitation anomalies associated with observed tropical storms. The difference in cumulative sediment transport estimated by combining the two flow discharge scenarios with the constructed sediment rating curves allowed the contribution of tropical storms to the Lower Mekong's suspended sediment transport regime to be isolated. It was found that sediment loads in the Mekong River attenuate downstream from approximately 120 MT in Laos and Thailand to ~80-90 MT in the alluvial

  15. TRMM Flyby of Tropical Cyclone Narelle

    NASA Video Gallery

    This animated, 3-D flyby of Major Cyclone Narelle was created using data on Jan. 11, from NASA's TRMM satellite. Narelle's wind speeds were near 132 mph. A few thunderstorm towers in Narelle's eye ...

  16. Modulation of tropical cyclone flash density by environmental factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lugo, A.; Abarca, S.; Kucienska, B.; Oropeza, F.; Raga, G.

    2012-12-01

    While lightning flash density has been successfully used to document azimuthal and radial distribution of convective activity in tropical cyclones, there have been less successful attempts to link flash density changes to storm intensity change. The latter efforts have been more often focused on major hurricanes and in isolation from environmental phenomena that modulate flash occurrence. Major hurricanes have more neutral vertical stratification than weaker storms and therefore, have fewer flashes. Other factors, such as the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei from continental origin, the diurnal cycle and sea surface temperature (SST), among others, will heavily modulate the lightning flash density. The Eastern Pacific basin is ideally located to study the effects of these different environmental modulators on tropical cyclones. The off-shore flow from Mexico results in a large variability of cloud condensation nuclei concentration and there is also a large range in sea surface temperatures. Note that most tropical cyclones in the basin dissipate as a result of the encounter of colder SSTs and drier air advected into the inner core . We present an analysis of lightning flash density in 96 tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific between 2005 and 2011. We use the best track dataset to determine location and intensity of the tropical cyclones, the World Wide Lightning Location Network to characterize flash density, MODIS (on board of the Terra and Aqua satellites) to determine the aerosol optical depth (as a proxy for cloud condensation nuclei content), and AMSR-E for sea surface temperatures. Preliminary results indicate a heavy modulation of flash density inside tropical cyclones by cloud condensation nuclei and a cap of the largest flash density as a function of sea surface temperatures.

  17. Field theoretical prediction of a property of the tropical cyclone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spineanu, F.; Vlad, M.

    2014-01-01

    The large scale atmospheric vortices (tropical cyclones, tornadoes) are complex physical systems combining thermodynamics and fluid-mechanical processes. The late phase of the evolution towards stationarity consists of the vorticity concentration, a well known tendency to self-organization , an universal property of the two-dimensional fluids. It may then be expected that the stationary state of the tropical cyclone has the same nature as the vortices of many other systems in nature: ideal (Euler) fluids, superconductors, Bose-Einsetin condensate, cosmic strings, etc. Indeed it was found that there is a description of the atmospheric vortex in terms of a classical field theory. It is compatible with the more conventional treatment based on conservation laws, but the field theoretical model reveals properties that are almost inaccessible to the conventional formulation: it identifies the stationary states as being close to self-duality. This is of highest importance: the self-duality is known to be the origin of all coherent structures known in natural systems. Therefore the field theoretical (FT) formulation finds that the cuasi-coherent form of the atmospheric vortex (tropical cyclone) at stationarity is an expression of this particular property. In the present work we examine a strong property of the tropical cyclone, which arises in the FT formulation in a natural way: the equality of the masses of the particles associated to the matter field and respectively to the gauge field in the FT model is translated into the equality between the maximum radial extension of the tropical cyclone and the Rossby radius. For the cases where the FT model is a good approximation we calculate characteristic quantities of the tropical cyclone and find good comparison with observational data.

  18. Revisiting trough interactions and tropical cyclone intensity change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peirano, C. M.; Corbosiero, K. L.; Tang, B. H.

    2016-05-01

    An updated climatology of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change in the presence of upper tropospheric trough forcing is presented. To control for changes in the background thermodynamic environment, a methodology that normalizes intensity change by the potential intensity of the TC is used to more narrowly focus on the effect of troughs compared to previous studies. Relative to the full sample of Atlantic TCs, troughs are a negative influence on intensification: trough interaction cases are 4% less likely to intensify and 5% more likely to weaken. Troughs are especially detrimental compared to TCs without trough forcing: trough interaction cases are 14% less likely to intensify and 13% more likely to weaken. Additionally, eddy flux convergence of angular momentum, previously shown to positively affect TC intensity change, is shown to be a weak predictor of intensity change compared to vertical wind shear, which is enhanced during a trough interaction.

  19. Tropical cyclone track Analysis over Indian Coast Using Spatio-Temporal data-mining

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohapatra, Gyanendranath; Manjunath, Swetha; Behera, Sasmita; Mohanty, Pratap Kumar

    2015-04-01

    Tropical cyclones are a natural hazard which largely affects the lives and property with its destructive wind and heavy rainfall. Fluctuations in the frequency and intensity complicate the detection of long-term trends and play an important role in the global climate system; therefore understanding and predicting tropical cyclones track, intensity, and landfall location is of both societal and scientific significance. In this study a data-mining approach is being used to analyze the tropical cyclone track both in the temporal and spatial scale. Basically, the Indian coast line is divided into four zones viz. north east, south east in the eastern side adjoining Bay of Bengal and North west and south west in the western side adjoining Arabian sea as these coastal areas are very much vulnerable for disaster due to maximum number of landfall of Tropical Cyclones. The track and landfall associated with all the cyclones are clustered based on their intensity (Severe, moderate and low) and landfall location. The analyses are carried out for landfall location and the extent of track separately for the events happening in two seasons i.e. pre-monsoon and post-monsoon period. Along with categorization of intensity, trend analysis of track and the targeted zone of maximum damage also been studied. Algorithms are being developed for potential resilient and impact assessment of the parameters associated with cyclone disaster in the coastal region of India. One of the important objectives of this present work is also the identification of most disaster prone coastal area and becoming a part of the information support system during the cyclone period. Based on the statistics like mean, Standard Deviation, regression and correlation analysis, an index is developed which determines the level of damage and vulnerability along the coastal region. This index can be used for the early warning system of particular coastal areas for the preparedness and mitigation of future cyclone

  20. Wind waves in tropical cyclones: satellite altimeter observations and modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Golubkin, Pavel; Kudryavtsev, Vladimir; Chapron, Bertrand

    2016-04-01

    Results of investigation of wind-wave generation by tropical cyclones using satellite altimeter data are presented. Tropical cyclones are generally relatively small rapidly moving low pressure systems that are capable of generating severe wave conditions. Translation of a tropical cyclone leads to a prolonged period of time surface waves in the right sector remain under high wind forcing conditions. This effect has been termed extended fetch, trapped fetch or group velocity quasi-resonance. A tropical cyclone wave field is thus likely more asymmetrical than the corresponding wind field: wind waves in the tropical cyclone right sector are more developed with larger heights than waves in the left one. A dataset of satellite altimeter intersections of the Western Pacific tropical cyclones was created for 2010-2013. Data from four missions were considered, i.e., Jason-1, Jason-2, CryoSat-2, SARAL/AltiKa. Measurements in the rear-left and front-right sectors of tropical cyclones were examined for the presence of significant wave asymmetry. An analytical model is then derived to efficiently describe the wave energy distribution in a moving tropical cyclone. The model essentially builds on a generalization of the self-similar wave growth model and the assumption of a strongly dominant single spectral mode in a given quadrant of the storm. The model provides a criterion to anticipate wave enhancement with the generation of trapped abnormal waves. If forced during a sufficient timescale interval, also defined from this generalized self-similar wave growth model, waves can be trapped and large amplification of the wave energy will occur in the front-right storm quadrant. Remarkably, the group velocity and corresponding wavelength of outrunning wave systems will become wind speed independent and solely relate to the translating velocity. The resulting significant wave height also only weakly depends on wind speed, and more strongly on the translation velocity. Satellite

  1. Contribution of tropical cyclones to global rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khouakhi, Abdou; Villarini, Gabriele; Vecchi, Gabriel; Smith, James

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) can have both devastating and beneficial impacts in different parts of the world. In this work, daily precipitation and historical six-hour best track TC datasets are used to quantify the contribution of TCs to global rainfall. We select 18607 rain gauge stations with at least 25 complete (at least 330 measurements per year) years between 1970 and 2014. We consider rainfall associated with TCs if the center of circulation of the storm passed within a given distance from the rain gauge and within a given time window. Spatial and temporal sensitivity analyses are performed with varying time windows (same day, ±1 day) and buffer radii (400 km and 500 km) around each rain gauge. Results highlight regional differences in TC-induced rainfall. The highest TC-induced precipitation totals (400 to 600+ mm/year) are prevalent along eastern Asia, western and northeastern Australia, and in the western Pacific islands. Stations along the southeast of the U.S. coast and surrounding the Gulf of Mexico receive up to 200 mm/year of TC rainfall. The highest annual fractional contributions of TCs to total rainfall (from 35 to 50%) are recorded in stations located in northwestern Australia, southeastern China, the northern Philippines and the southern Mexico peninsula. Seasonally, the highest proportions (40 to 50%) are recorded along eastern Australia and Mauritius in winter, and in eastern Asia and Mexico in summer and autumn. Analyses of the relative contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall using annual maximum (AM) and peaks-over-threshold (POT) approaches indicate notable differences among regions. The highest TC-AM rainfall proportions (45 to 60%) are found in stations located in Japan, eastern China, the Philippines, eastern and western Australia. Substantial contributions (25 to 40% of extreme rainfall) are also recorded in stations located along the U.S. East Coast, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Mexico peninsula. We find similar

  2. Interactions Between Vestige Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and Mid-Latitude Storms Over Mediterranean Basin

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Eric A.; Mehta, Amita; Mugnai, Alberto; Tripoli, Gregory J.

    2007-01-01

    One of the more interesting tropical-mid-latitude interactions is one that has important effects on precipitation within the Mediterranean basin. This interaction consists of an Atlantic tropical cyclone vestige whose original disturbance travels eastward and northward across Atlantic basin, eventually intermingling with a mid-latitude cyclone entering southern Europe and/or the \\bestern Mediterranean Sea. The period for these interactions is from mid-September through November. If the tropical cyclone and its vestige is able to make the eastward Atlantic transit within the low to mid-levels, or if an upper level potential vorticity perturbation Cjet streak) emitted by a Hurricane in its latter stages within the central Atlantic is able to propagate into and along the longwave pattern affecting the western Mediterranean Sea (MED), then there is the prospect for the tropical cyclone remnant to produce a major modification of the mid-latitude storm system preparing to affect the MED region. For such an occurrence to take place, it is necessary for an amplifying baroclinic perturbation to be already situated to the rear of a longwave trough, or to be excited by the emitted jet streak to the rear of a longwave trough -- in either case, preparing to affect the western MED. The Algiers City flood of 9-10 November 2001, which killed some 700 people, was produced by a Mediterranean cyclone that had been influenced by two vestige Atlantic tropical cyclones, 1,orenzo and Noel. A published modeling study involving various of this study's authors has already described the dynamical development of the Algiers storm as it amplified from a developing baroclinic disturbance in the Rossby wave train, into a northern Africa hazardous flood system, then lingered in the western MED as a semi-intense warm core cyclone. In our new modeling experiments, we investigate the impact of what might have happened in the eventual precipitation field. had the main features of the tropical

  3. Impact Factors and Risk Analysis of Tropical Cyclones on a Highway Network.

    PubMed

    Yang, Saini; Hu, Fuyu; Jaeger, Carlo

    2016-02-01

    Coastal areas typically have high social and economic development and are likely to suffer huge losses due to tropical cyclones. These cyclones have a great impact on the transportation network, but there have been a limited number of studies about tropical-cyclone-induced transportation network functional damages, especially in Asia. This study develops an innovative measurement and analytical tool for highway network functional damage and risk in the context of a tropical cyclone, with which we explored the critical spatial characteristics of tropical cyclones with regard to functional damage to a highway network by developing linear regression models to quantify their relationship. Furthermore, we assessed the network's functional risk and calculated the return periods under different damage levels. In our analyses, we consider the real-world highway network of Hainan province, China. Our results illustrate that the most important spatial characteristics were location (in particular, the midlands), travel distance, landfalling status, and origin coordinates. However, the trajectory direction did not obviously affect the results. Our analyses indicate that the highway network of Hainan province may suffer from a 90% functional damage scenario every 4.28 years. These results have critical policy implications for the transport sector in reference to emergency planning and disaster reduction.

  4. Impact Factors and Risk Analysis of Tropical Cyclones on a Highway Network.

    PubMed

    Yang, Saini; Hu, Fuyu; Jaeger, Carlo

    2016-02-01

    Coastal areas typically have high social and economic development and are likely to suffer huge losses due to tropical cyclones. These cyclones have a great impact on the transportation network, but there have been a limited number of studies about tropical-cyclone-induced transportation network functional damages, especially in Asia. This study develops an innovative measurement and analytical tool for highway network functional damage and risk in the context of a tropical cyclone, with which we explored the critical spatial characteristics of tropical cyclones with regard to functional damage to a highway network by developing linear regression models to quantify their relationship. Furthermore, we assessed the network's functional risk and calculated the return periods under different damage levels. In our analyses, we consider the real-world highway network of Hainan province, China. Our results illustrate that the most important spatial characteristics were location (in particular, the midlands), travel distance, landfalling status, and origin coordinates. However, the trajectory direction did not obviously affect the results. Our analyses indicate that the highway network of Hainan province may suffer from a 90% functional damage scenario every 4.28 years. These results have critical policy implications for the transport sector in reference to emergency planning and disaster reduction. PMID:26385797

  5. A Global Index for Tropical Cyclone Damage Potential

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holland, G. J.; Done, J.; NCAR Regional Climate Research Group

    2011-12-01

    There is a growing need for timely information on the damage caused by hurricanes for immediate response and for industry and societal planning purposes. This has led to a number of specific indices being developed that estimate damage from standard hurricane information. In this talk we describe our approach to assessing the damage potential of tropical cyclones using a combination of physical reasoning and empirical assessment. An earlier index, the Willis Hurricane Index (WHI, Holland and Owens 2009), was developed for assessing damage to offshore structures from individual tropical cyclones. The WHI is applicable in climate simulations, operational forecasting and post-impact assessment and is being extended to coastal infrastructure in a separate study. Here we discuss a second index applicable to seasonal and basin-wide summaries, called the Cyclone Damage Potential (CDP). As with the WHI, this incorporates tropical cyclone intensity, size and translational speed into a single index that provides a first order assessment of damage potential. Actual damage assessment or prediction requires inclusion of an additional step to normalize the CDP to historical damage data and regional peculiarities, and an example will be provided. Two uses of the index will be demonstrated: summarizing seasonal damage potential for a region and its changes with time, and assessing the future variability and changes in cyclone damage potential.

  6. Contributions of Tropical Cyclones to the North Atlantic Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The tropical cyclone rainfall climatology study that was performed for the North Pacific was extended to the North Atlantic. Similar to the North Pacific tropical cyclone study, mean monthly rainfall within 444 km of the center of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones (i.e., that reached storm stage and greater) was estimated from passive microwave satellite observations during, an eleven year period. These satellite-observed rainfall estimates were used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Atlantic total rainfall during, June-November when tropical cyclones were most abundant. The main results from this study indicate: 1) that tropical cyclones contribute, respectively, 4%, 3%, and 4% to the western, eastern, and entire North Atlantic; 2) similar to that observed in the North Pacific, the maximum in North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall is approximately 5 - 10 deg poleward (depending on longitude) of the maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute regionally a maximum of 30% of the total rainfall 'northeast of Puerto Rico, within a region near 15 deg N 55 deg W, and off the west coast of Africa; 4) there is no lag between the months with maximum tropical cyclone rainfall and non-tropical cyclone rainfall in the western North Atlantic, while in the eastern North Atlantic, maximum tropical cyclone rainfall precedes maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 5) like the North Pacific, North Atlantic tropical cyclones Of hurricane intensity generate the greatest amount of rainfall in the higher latitudes; and 6) warm ENSO events inhibit tropical cyclone rainfall.

  7. Impact of Vertical Wind Shear on Tropical Cyclone Rainfall

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cecil, Dan; Marchok, Tim

    2014-01-01

    While tropical cyclone rainfall has a large axisymmetric component, previous observational and theoretical studies have shown that environmental vertical wind shear leads to an asymmetric component of the vertical motion and precipitation fields. Composites consistently depict a precipitation enhancement downshear and also cyclonically downwind from the downshear direction. For consistence with much of the literature and with Northern Hemisphere observations, this is subsequently referred to as "Downshear-Left". Stronger shear magnitudes are associated with greater amplitude precipitation asymmetries. Recent work has reinforced the prior findings, and explored details of the response of the precipitation and kinematic fields to environmental vertical wind shear. Much of this research has focused on tropical cyclones away from land, to limit the influence of other processes that might distort the signal related to vertical wind shear. Recent evidence does suggest vertical wind shear can also play a major role in precipitation asymmetries during and after landfall.

  8. Evaluating the impacts of eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones on North America utilizing remotely-sensed and reanalysis data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, Kimberly M.

    The eastern North Pacific Ocean has the highest density of tropical cyclone genesis events of any tropical basin in the world, and many of these systems form near land before moving westward. However, despite the level of tropical cyclone activity in this basin, and the proximity of the main genesis region to land, tropical cyclone behavior in the eastern North Pacific has been relatively unexplored. When synoptic conditions are favorable, moisture from northward-moving tropical cyclones can be advected into northern Mexico and the southwestern United States, often leading to the development of summertime thunderstorms during the North American monsoon season. An interaction with a mid-latitude trough produces the most rainfall, and the spatial variability of precipitation is greatly affected by the complex topography of the region. Moisture can be advected from a tropical cyclone around the subtropical ridge in place for much of the eastern North Pacific hurricane season and contribute to precipitation. This ridge, when it extends westward over the Pacific Ocean, can also prevent tropical cyclone moisture from impacting the southwestern United States. Northward-moving tropical cyclones often enter an environment with decreasing sea surface temperatures, increasing vertical wind shear, and meridional air temperature and moisture gradients. These key ingredients for extratropical transition are generally present in the eastern North Pacific, but the subtropical ridge prevents many named systems from moving northward, and only 9% of eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones from 1970 to 2011 complete ET according to cyclone phase space. However, over half of the systems that do not complete ET dissipate as cold core cyclones, a structural change that has yet to be explored in other tropical basins. It is difficult to estimate tropical cyclone intensity in a vast ocean area with few direct measurements available. The deviation angle variance technique, an objective

  9. How do beetle assemblages respond to cyclonic disturbance of a fragmented tropical rainforest landscape?

    PubMed

    Grimbacher, Peter S; Stork, Nigel E

    2009-09-01

    There are surprisingly few studies documenting effects of tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons) on rainforest animals, and especially insects, considering that many tropical forests are frequently affected by cyclonic disturbance. Consequently, we sampled a beetle assemblage inhabiting 18 upland rainforest sites in a fragmented landscape in north-eastern Queensland, Australia, using a standardised sampling protocol in 2002 and again 12 months after the passage of Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry (March 2006). The spatial configuration of sites allowed us to test if the effects of a cyclone and those from fragmentation interact. From all insect samples we extracted 12,568 beetles of 382 species from ten families. Beetle species composition was significantly different pre-and post-cyclone although the magnitude of faunal change was not large with 205 species, representing 96% of all individuals, present in both sampling events. Sites with the greatest changes to structure had the greatest changes in species composition. At the site level, increases in woody debris and wood-feeding beetle (Scolytinae) counts were significantly correlated but changes in the percent of ground vegetation were not mirrored by changes in the abundance of foliage-feeding beetles (Chrysomelidae). The overall direction of beetle assemblage change was consistent with increasing aridity, presumably caused by the loss of canopy cover. Sites with the greatest canopy loss had the strongest changes in the proportion of species previously identified in the pre-cyclone study as preferring arid or moist rainforest environments. The magnitude of fragmentation effects was virtually unaltered by the passage of Cyclone Larry. We postulate that in the short-term the effects of cyclonic disturbance and forest fragmentation both reduce the extent of moist, interior habitat.

  10. GPM Flyby of Tropical Cyclone Ula's Eye and Rainfall

    NASA Video Gallery

    NASA Sees Tropical Cyclone Ula's Eye and Rainfall On Dec. 29, NASA's GPM saw rain was falling at a rate of over 83.6 mm (3.29 inches) per in a feeder band (of thunderstorms) northeast of the develo...

  11. A 6000 year tropical cyclone record from Western Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nott, Jonathan

    2011-03-01

    This study provides the first long-term tropical cyclone record from the Indian Ocean region. Multiple shore parallel ridges composed entirely of one species of marine cockle shell ( Fragum eragatum) standing between 3 and 6 m above mean sea level occur at Hamelin Pool, Shark Bay, Western Australia. The ridges record a tropical cyclone history between approximately 500 cal BP and 6000-7000 cal BP. Numerical storm surge and shallow water wave modelling techniques have been applied to determine the intensity (central pressure with uncertainty margins) of the storms responsible for deposition of the ridges, which has occurred approximately every 190-270 years. The ridges also record a 1700 year gap in tropical cyclone activity, between approximately 5400 cal BP and 3700 cal BP, where ridges deposited prior to this time were buried by a substantial deposit of aeolian fine-grained terrestrial sediment. The presence of this sedimentary unit suggests that this 1700 year period was characterised by a very dry climate; possibly the driest phase experienced in this region since the mid-Holocene. The absence of tropical cyclones at this time and the occurrence of this mega-drought may be linked.

  12. Tropical storms: The socio-economics of cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noy, Ilan

    2016-04-01

    Understanding the potential social and economic damage and loss wrought by tropical cyclones requires not only understanding how they will change in frequency and intensity in a future climate, but also how these hazards will interact with the changing exposures and vulnerabilities associated with social change.

  13. NASA Analyzes Tropical Cyclone Kyant Before its Demise

    NASA Video Gallery

    The GPM core observatory satellite flew over tropical cyclone Kyant on Oct. 25 at 12:06 p.m. EDT. An area of violent storms was dropping rain at a rate of over 215 mm (8.5 inches) per hour (red). A...

  14. A statistical analysis of the association between tropical cyclone intensity change and tornado frequency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, Todd W.

    2016-07-01

    Tropical cyclones often produce tornadoes that have the potential to compound the injury and fatality counts and the economic losses associated with tropical cyclones. These tornadoes do not occur uniformly through time or across space. Multiple statistical methods were used in this study to analyze the association between tropical cyclone intensity change and tornado frequency. Results indicate that there is an association between the two and that tropical cyclones tend to produce more tornadoes when they are weakening, but the association is weak. Tropical cyclones can also produce a substantial number of tornadoes when they are relatively stable or strengthening.

  15. Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Vertical Wind Shear.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong, Martin L. M.; Chan, Johnny C. L.

    2004-08-01

    The structure and intensity changes of tropical cyclones (TCs) in environmental vertical wind shear (VWS) are investigated in this study using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5). Triply nested domains of 36-, 12-, and 4-km resolution are used with fully explicit moisture physics in the 4-km domain. Idealized environments with easterly shears of 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 m s-1 between 800 and 200 hPa are applied on an f plane. Under small values of VWS (2 and 4 m s-1), the TC intensities are similar to that of the control (CTRL; i.e., no VWS) after initial adjustments. The TCs under 6 and 8 m s-1 of VWS are not as intense, although they do not weaken during the simulation. On the other hand, the TC in 10 m s-1 of VWS weakened significantly.Given the same VWS, the TC intensity is also found to be sensitive to TC size. Experiments with TCs with a smaller radius of 15 m s-1 wind reveal that while the TC in 2 m s-1 of VWS remains as intense as the CTRL, the TC in the 4 m s-1 VWS case weakened significantly to a minimal hurricane by the end of the simulation. A VWS of 6 m s-1 is strong enough to cause dissipation of the TC in 72 h. These results indicate that the size of a TC has to be taken into account in determining the intensity change of a TC in VWS.In the 10 m s-1 VWS case, the average temperature over the lower half of the troposphere within 50 km from the TC surface center is higher than that of the CTRL throughout the simulation. Such a warming, though of a small magnitude, is also observed for a brief period in the upper half of the troposphere before the rapid weakening of the TC and is related to the asymmetry of temperature required for a tilt of the vortex axis. The evolution of the vortex tilt is found to be similar to the dry simulations in previous studies, with the midlevel center (σ = 0.525) located mainly in the southeast quadrant of the surface center. A tendency for

  16. Dynamically Downscaling Precipitation from Extra-Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Champion, A.; Hodges, K.; Bengtsson, L.

    2012-04-01

    Recent flooding events experienced by the UK and Western Europe have highlighted the potential disruption caused by precipitation associated with extra-tropical cyclones. The question as to the effect of a warming climate on these events also needs to be addressed to determine whether such events will become more frequent or more intense in the future. The changes in precipitation can be addressed through the use of Global Climate Models (GCMs), however the resolution of GCMs are often too coarse to drive hydrological models, required to investigate any flooding that may be associated with the precipitation. The changes to the precipitation associated with extra-tropical cyclones are investigated by tracking cyclones in two resolutions of the ECHAM5 GCM, T213 and T319 for 20th and 21st century climate simulations. It is shown that the intensity of extreme precipitation associated with extra-tropical cyclones is predicted to increase in a warmer climate at both resolutions. It was also found that the increase in resolution shows an increase in the number of extreme events for several fields, including precipitation; however it is also seen that the magnitude of the response is not uniform across the seasons. The tails of the distributions are investigated using Extreme Value Theory (EVT) using a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) with a Peaks over Threshold (POT) method, calculating return periods for given return levels. From the cyclones identified in the T213 resolution of the GCM a small number of cyclones were selected that pass over the UK, travelling from the South-West to the North-East. These are cyclones that are more likely to have large amounts of moisture associated with them and therefore potentially being associated with large precipitation intensities. Four cyclones from each climate were then selected to drive a Limited Area Model (LAM), to gain a more realistic representation of the precipitation associated with each extra-tropical cyclone. The

  17. Tropical Cyclone Induced Air-Sea Interactions Over Oceanic Fronts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shay, L. K.

    2012-12-01

    Recent severe tropical cyclones underscore the inherent importance of warm background ocean fronts and their interactions with the atmospheric boundary layer. Central to the question of heat and moisture fluxes, the amount of heat available to the tropical cyclone is predicated by the initial mixed layer depth and strength of the stratification that essentially set the level of entrainment mixing at the base of the mixed layer. In oceanic regimes where the ocean mixed layers are thin, shear-induced mixing tends to cool the upper ocean to form cold wakes which reduces the air-sea fluxes. This is an example of negative feedback. By contrast, in regimes where the ocean mixed layers are deep (usually along the western part of the gyres), warm water advection by the nearly steady currents reduces the levels of turbulent mixing by shear instabilities. As these strong near-inertial shears are arrested, more heat and moisture transfers are available through the enthalpy fluxes (typically 1 to 1.5 kW m-2) into the hurricane boundary layer. When tropical cyclones move into favorable or neutral atmospheric conditions, tropical cyclones have a tendency to rapidly intensify as observed over the Gulf of Mexico during Isidore and Lili in 2002, Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2005, Dean and Felix in 2007 in the Caribbean Sea, and Earl in 2010 just north of the Caribbean Islands. To predict these tropical cyclone deepening (as well as weakening) cycles, coupled models must have ocean models with realistic ocean conditions and accurate air-sea and vertical mixing parameterizations. Thus, to constrain these models, having complete 3-D ocean profiles juxtaposed with atmospheric profiler measurements prior, during and subsequent to passage is an absolute necessity framed within regional scale satellite derived fields.

  18. Tropical Cyclone Induced Air-Sea Interactions Over Oceanic Fronts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shay, L.

    2012-04-01

    Recent severe tropical cyclones underscore the inherent importance of warm background ocean fronts and their interactions with the atmospheric boundary layer. Central to the question of heat and moisture fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere, the amount of heat available to the tropical cyclone is predicated by the initial depth of the mixed layer and strength of the stratification level that set the level of entrainment mixing at the base of the oceanic mixed layer. For example in oceanic regimes where the ocean mixed layers are thin, shear-induced mixing tends to cool the upper ocean (and sea surface temperatures) quickly which reduces the air-sea fluxes. This is an example of negative feedback from the ocean to the atmosphere. By contrast, in regimes where the ocean mixed layers are deep (usually along the western part of the gyres), warm water advection by the nearly steady currents reduces the levels of turbulent mixing by shear instabilities. As these strong near-inertial shears are arrested, more heat and moisture is available through the sea surface. When tropical cyclones move into favorable or neutral atmospheric conditions (low vertical shear, anticyclonic circulation aloft), tropical cyclones have a tendency to rapidly intensify as observed over the Gulf of Mexico during Isidore and Lili in 2002, Katrina and Rita in 2005, Dean and Felix in 2007 in the Caribbean Sea, and Earl in 2010 just north of the Caribbean Islands. To predict these tropical cyclone deepening (as well as weakening) cycles, coupled models must have ocean models with realistic ocean conditions and accurate air-sea and vertical mixing parameterizations. These effects and possible impact on TC deepening and weakening underscores the necessity of having complete 3-D ocean measurements juxtaposed with atmospheric profiler measurements.

  19. Relation between tropical cyclone heat potential and cyclone intensity in the North Indian Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jangir, B.; Swain, D.; Udaya Bhaskar, T. V. S.

    2016-05-01

    Ocean Heat Content (OHC) plays a significant role in modulating the intensity of Tropical Cyclones (TC) in terms of the oceanic energy available to TCs. TC Heat Potential (TCHP), an estimate of OHC, is thus known to be a useful indicator of TC genesis and intensification. In the present study, we analyze the role of TCHP in intensification of TCs in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) through statistical comparisons between TCHP and Cyclone Intensities (CI). A total of 27 TCs (20 in the Bay of Bengal, and 7 in the Arabian Sea) during the period 2005-2012 have been analyzed using TCHP data from Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) model of Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services and cyclone best track data from India Meteorological Department. Out of the 27 cyclones analyzed, 58% (86%) in the Bay (Arabian Sea) have negative correlation and 42% (14%) cyclones have positive correlation between CI and TCHP. On the whole, more than 60% cyclones in the NIO show negative correlations between CI and TCHP. The negative percentage further increases for TCHP leading CI by 24 and 48 hours. Similar trend is also seen with satellite derived TCHP data obtained from National Remote Sensing Center and TC best track data from Joint Typhoon Warming Centre. Hence, it is postulated that TCHP alone need not be the only significant oceanographic parameter, apart from sea surface temperature, responsible for intensification and propagation of TCs in the NIO.

  20. Tropical Cyclone rainfall changes in a warmer climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scoccimarro, Enrico; Villarini, Gabriele; Gualdi, Silvio; Navarra, Antonio; Vecchi, Gabriel; Walsh, Kevin; Zhao, Ming

    2015-04-01

    Possible changes in the intensity of rainfall events associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) are investigated under idealized forcing scenarios, with a special focus on landfalling storms. A new set of experiments designed within the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group allows disentangling the relative role of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide from that played by sea surface temperature (SST) in changing the amount of rainfall associated with TCs in a warmer world. Compared to the present day simulation, we found an increase in TC rainfall under the scenarios involving SST increases. On the other hand, in a CO2 doubling-only scenario, the changes in TC rainfall are small and we found that, on average, TC rainfall tends to decrease compared to the present day climate. The results of this study highlight the contribution of landfalling TCs to the projected increase in the rainfall changes affecting the tropical coastal regions. Scenarios involving SST increases, project a TC rainfall strengthening more evident over land than over ocean. This is linked to the increased lifting effect on the landfalling TCs, induced by an increased instability of the atmospheric column along the coastal regions in a warmer climate.

  1. Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Cycle as Observed by TRMM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leppert, Kenneth D., II; Cecil, D. J.

    2015-01-01

    Using infrared satellite data, previous work has shown a consistent diurnal cycle in the pattern of cold cloud tops around mature tropical cyclones. In particular, an increase in the coverage by cold cloud tops often occurs in the inner core of the storm around the time of sunset and subsequently propagates outward to several hundred kilometers over the course of the following day. This consistent cycle may have important implications for structure and intensity changes of tropical cyclones and the forecasting of such changes. Because infrared satellite measurements are primarily sensitive to cloud top, the goal of this study is to use passive and active microwave measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR), respectively, to examine and better understand the tropical cyclone diurnal cycle throughout a larger depth of the storm's clouds. The National Hurricane Center's best track dataset was used to extract all PR and TMI pixels within 1000 km of each tropical cyclone that occurred in the Atlantic basin between 1998-2011. Then the data was composited according to radius (100-km bins from 0-1000 km) and local standard time (LST; 3-hr bins). Specifically, PR composites involved finding the percentage of pixels with reflectivity greater than or equal to 20 dBZ at various heights (i.e., 2-14 km in increments of 2 km) as a function of radius and time. The 37- and 85- GHz TMI channels are especially sensitive to scattering by precipitation-sized ice in the mid to upper portions of clouds. Hence, the percentage of 37- and 85-GHz polarization corrected temperatures less than various thresholds were calculated using data from all storms as a function of radius and time. For 37 GHz, thresholds of 260 K, 265 K, 270 K, and 275 K were used, and for 85 GHz, thresholds of 200-270 K in increments of 10 K were utilized. Note that convection forced by the interactions of a tropical cyclone with land (e.g., due

  2. Do Speleothem Stable Isotope Records Contain Hidden Tropical Cyclone Histories? Exploring C-O Isotope Correlation Patterns for Indicators of Tropical Cyclone Masking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frappier, A. E.; Rossington, C.

    2013-12-01

    The newly-described tropical cyclone masking effect on stable isotope paleohydrological signals in speleothem records arises from the intermittent delivery of large pulses of isotopically distinct tropical cyclone rain. Recent work shows that 18-O depleted tropical cyclone stormwater depresses the δ18O value of speleothem calcite for months to years following a tropical cyclone event, masking the background stable isotope signal of persistent climate variability. Periods of high local storm activity can lead to speleothem calcite paleohydrological signals with significant wet biases on interannual to decadal timescales. Because speleothem carbon isotope ratios are independent of tropical cyclone rainfall, tropical speleothems are known to exhibit moderate C-O isotope covariation over time, periods when C-O isotope covariation breaks down and δ18O values are low may provide a marker for times when tropical cyclone masking is important. If so, existing speleothem stable isotope records from tropical cyclone-prone regions may contain signatures of tropical cyclone masking in the temporal evolution of C-O isotope covariation patterns. We present results from an exploratory analysis of several published speleothem records that are candidates for containing tropical cyclone masking signals. For each speleothem, overall C-O isotope covariation coefficients were calculated, and transient covariation patterns were analyzed using a sliding correlation index, the Covariation of Stable Isotopes (CoSI) index, and Local Correlation (LoCo). Local tropical cyclone historical and paleotempest records are compared and a method is presented to test for the presence of tropical cyclone masking intervals. The implications for speleothem paleoclimatology and paleotempestology are discussed.

  3. Sea surface height evidence for long-term warming effects of tropical cyclones on the ocean.

    PubMed

    Mei, Wei; Primeau, François; McWilliams, James C; Pasquero, Claudia

    2013-09-17

    Tropical cyclones have been hypothesized to influence climate by pumping heat into the ocean, but a direct measure of this warming effect is still lacking. We quantified cyclone-induced ocean warming by directly monitoring the thermal expansion of water in the wake of cyclones, using satellite-based sea surface height data that provide a unique way of tracking the changes in ocean heat content on seasonal and longer timescales. We find that the long-term effect of cyclones is to warm the ocean at a rate of 0.32 ± 0.15 PW between 1993 and 2009, i.e., ∼23 times more efficiently per unit area than the background equatorial warming, making cyclones potentially important modulators of the climate by affecting heat transport in the ocean-atmosphere system. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that the rate of warming increases with cyclone intensity. This, together with a predicted shift in the distribution of cyclones toward higher intensities as climate warms, suggests the ocean will get even warmer, possibly leading to a positive feedback.

  4. Genesis of tropical cyclone Nargis revealed by multiple satellite observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kikuchi, Kazuyoshi; Wang, Bin; Fudeyasu, Hironori

    2009-03-01

    Tropical cyclone (TC) Nargis recently battered Myanmar on May 2 2008 is one of the most deadly tropical storms in history. Nargis was initiated by an abnormally strong intraseasonal westerly event associated with Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in the eastern Indian Ocean. An incipient cyclonic disturbance emerged as an emanation of Rossby wave-induced vortex when the intraseasonal convective anomaly reached the Maritime Continent. The northeastward movement of MJO convection facilitated further development of the disturbance. The incipient disturbance became a tropical disturbance (TD) with a central warm-core structure on April 26. The further development from the TD to TC formation on April 28 is characterized by two distinctive stages: a radial contraction followed by a rapid intensification. The processes responsible for contraction and rapid intensification are discussed by diagnosis of multiple satellite data. This proposed new scenario is instrumental for understanding how a major TC develops in the northern Indian Ocean.

  5. Tree-ring isotope records of tropical cyclone activity

    PubMed Central

    Miller, Dana L.; Mora, Claudia I.; Grissino-Mayer, Henri D.; Mock, Cary J.; Uhle, Maria E.; Sharp, Zachary

    2006-01-01

    The destruction wrought by North Atlantic hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 dramatically emphasizes the need for better understanding of tropical cyclone activity apart from the records provided by meteorological data and historical documentation. We present a 220-year record of oxygen isotope values of α-cellulose in longleaf pine tree rings that preserves anomalously low isotope values in the latewood portion of the ring in years corresponding with known 19th and 20th century landfalling/near-coastal tropical storms and hurricanes. Our results suggest the potential for a tree-ring oxygen isotope proxy record of tropical cyclone occurrence extending back many centuries based on remnant pine wood from protected areas in the southeastern U.S. PMID:16984996

  6. Tree-ring isotope records of tropical cyclone activity.

    PubMed

    Miller, Dana L; Mora, Claudia I; Grissino-Mayer, Henri D; Mock, Cary J; Uhle, Maria E; Sharp, Zachary

    2006-09-26

    The destruction wrought by North Atlantic hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 dramatically emphasizes the need for better understanding of tropical cyclone activity apart from the records provided by meteorological data and historical documentation. We present a 220-year record of oxygen isotope values of alpha-cellulose in longleaf pine tree rings that preserves anomalously low isotope values in the latewood portion of the ring in years corresponding with known 19th and 20th century landfalling/near-coastal tropical storms and hurricanes. Our results suggest the potential for a tree-ring oxygen isotope proxy record of tropical cyclone occurrence extending back many centuries based on remnant pine wood from protected areas in the southeastern U.S.

  7. The Indian Ocean Dipole's influence on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marinaro, Alan Joseph

    Improving early tropical cyclone forecasts would assist reinsurance decision makers as they seek information that can minimize risks. Early lead forecasts are based on model variables before December 1 (Year 0) that predict Atlantic tropical cyclone activity (Year +1). The autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has an 8 to 14 month antecedent correlation with the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO is traditionally the best non-lead and overall predictor of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Analyses were performed over a 30-year period from 1984/85-2013/14, with some time variation depending on the test. Correlation, spatial, and wavelet analyses were utilized to find associations between the IOD, west and east components of the IOD, and four other variables related to the following season's ENSO state and tropical cyclone activity. The prior western pole of the October IOD (WIOD) was demonstrated to have statistically significant r-squared values (i.e. 99% confidence interval) to upcoming tropical storm activity (i.e. explained 25% of the variance), named storm counts (28%), and ENSO (21%). The WIOD has no connection with U.S. hurricane landfalls. Wavelet analysis between October IOD variables and following August-October ENSO data was observed to have the best time-frequency relationship. Dynamic reasoning for these relationships reside within the idealized biennial IOD-ENSO cycle, Walker circulation process, and the impact of ENSO on the state of the Atlantic Basin. The WIOD's integration into early-lead forecast models could be an advantage for those in the reinsurance industry and other decision makers impacted by Atlantic tropical cyclonesn.

  8. Tropical Cyclones Feed More Heavy Rain in a Warmer Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K.-M.; Zhou, Y. P.; Wu, H.-T.

    2007-01-01

    The possible linkage of tropical cyclones (TC) to global warming is a hotly debated scientific topic, with immense societal impacts. Most of the debate has been focused on the issue of uncertainty in the use of non-research quality data for long-term trend analyses, especially with regard to TC intensity provided by TC forecasting centers. On the other hand, it is well known that TCs are associated with heavy rain during the processes of genesis and intensification, and that there are growing evidences that rainfall characteristics (not total rainfall) are most likely to be affected by global warming. Yet, satellite rainfall data have not been exploited in any recent studies of linkage between tropical cyclones (TC) and global warming. This is mostly due to the large uncertainties associated with detection of long-term trend in satellite rainfall estimates over the ocean. This problem, as we demonstrate in this paper, can be alleviated by examining rainfall distribution, rather than rainfall total. This paper is the first to use research-quality, satellite-derived rainfall from TRMM and GPCP over the tropical oceans to estimate shift in rainfall distribution during the TC season, and its relationships with TCs, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the two major ocean basins, the northern Atlantic and the northern Pacific for 1979-2005. From the rainfall distribution, we derive the TC contributions to rainfall in various extreme rainfall categories as a function to time. Our results show a definitive trend indicating that TCs are contributing increasingly to heavier rain events, i.e., intense TC's are more frequent in the last 27 years. The TC contribution to top 5% heavy rain has nearly doubled in the last two decades in the North Atlantic, and has increased by about 10% in the North Pacific. The different rate of increase in TC contribution to heavy rain may be related to the different rates of different rate of expansion of the warm pool (SST >2S0 C) area in the

  9. Dynamical simulation of tropical cyclones in high-resolution GCMs (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strachan, J.; Vidale, P.; Hodges, K.; Roberts, M.

    2010-12-01

    weather events though teleconnections, and hence potential accumulation of seemingly unrelated risk; 4. Undertake future climate scenario runs, and assess how climate change may affect tropical cyclone risk in the future. This is important research from a scientific point of view, but also has significant implications for risk assessment and the insurance industry. Through a long-term collaboration with the insurance industry, via the Willis Research Network (WRN), we are working to integrate our findings and dynamical modelling approach into the risk assessment process to assist risk analysts in the evaluation climate-related risk.

  10. Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Pacific Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.

    1997-01-01

    Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an eleven year period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared to those for non-tropical cyclone systems. The main results of this study indicate that: 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maxima in tropical cyclone rainfall are poleward (5 deg to 10 deg latitude depending on longitude) of the maxima in non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% of the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the ITCZ; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Nino years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.

  11. The Middle Atmospheric variability over Indian region during Tropical cyclone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhagavathiammal, G. J.

    In order to study the various characteristics of atmosphere during the passage of tropical cyclones, some atmospheric parameters over Indian region has been studied. The tropospheric variability has been studied with the help of surface pressure variation obtained from microbarograph at Tirunelveli (8.7oN, 77.8oE). The stratospheric ozone variability has been obtained from the TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) satellite over the Bay of Bengal as well as Arabian Ocean. The ionospheric current over Indian region has been obtained from the network of Indian Institute of Geomagnetism. We have studied the ionospheric current variations over Tirunelveli (inside the electrojet region) and Alibag (outside the electrojet region). The tropospheric cyclone track has been obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department. The pressure variation obtained over Tirunelveli has been converted into FFT spectrum and it shows the enhancement in power of surface gravity waves of period about 150 min. The magnitude of enhancement depends upon the distance of the cyclone track. The stratospheric ozone obtained by TOMS shows an increase in ozone during tropical depression by about 10 DU followed by decrease in total ozone up to 25 DU along the cyclone track. The ionospheric current shows the changes in power of Inertial Gravity Waves (IGW) over Tirunelveli as well as Alibag. The power of IGW over Tirunelveli shows decrease by about 25

  12. An elastic contour matching model for tropical cyclone pattern recognition.

    PubMed

    Lee, R T; Lin, J K

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, an elastic graph dynamic link model (EGDLM) based on elastic contour matching is proposed to automate the Dvorak technique for tropical cyclone (TC) pattern interpretation from satellite images. This method integrates traditional dynamic link architecture (DLA) for neural dynamics and the active contour model (ACM) for contour extraction of TC patterns. Using satellite pictures provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 120 tropical cyclone cases that appeared in the period from 1990 to 1998 were extracted for the study. An overall correct rate for TC classification was found to be above 95%. For hurricanes with distinct "eye" formation, the model reported a deviation within 3 km from the "actual eye" location, which was obtained from the aircraft measurement of minimum surface pressure by reconnaissance. Compared with the classical DLA model, the proposed model has simplified the feature representation, the network initialization, and the training process. This leads to a tremendous improvement of recognition performance by more than 1000 times.

  13. Aerosols-Cloud-Microphysics Interactions in Tropical Cyclone Earl

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luna-Cruz, Yaitza

    Aerosols-cloud-microphysical processes are largely unknown in their influence on tropical cyclone evolution and intensification; aerosols possess the largest uncertainty. For example: What is the link between aerosols and cloud microphysics quantities? How efficient are the aerosols (i.e. dust from the Saharan Air Layer -SAL) as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN)? Does aerosols affect the vertical velocity, precipitation rates, cloud structure and lifetime? What are the dominant factors and in which sectors of the tropical cyclone? To address some of the questions in-situ microphysics measurements from the NASA DC-8 aircraft were obtained during the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) 2010 field campaign. A total of four named storms (Earl, Gaston, Karl and Mathew) were sampled. Earl presented the excellent opportunity to study aerosols-cloud-microphysics interactions because Saharan dust was present and it underwent rapid intensification. This thesis seeks to explore hurricane Earl to develop a better understanding of the relationship between the SAL aerosols and cloud microphysics evolution. To assist in the interpretation of the microphysics observations, high resolution numerical simulations of hurricane Earl were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model with the new Aerosol-Aware bulk microphysics scheme. This new version of Thompson scheme includes explicit activation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) from a major CCN source (i.e. sulfates and sea salt) and explicit ice nucleation (IN) from mineral dust. Three simulations are performed: (1) the Control case with the old Thompson scheme and initial conditions from GFS model, (2) the Aerosol-Aware first baseline case with GOCART aerosol module as an input conditions, and (3) the Aerosol-Aware increase case in which the GOCART aerosols concentrations were increased significantly. Overall, results of model simulations along with aircraft observations

  14. Trends in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Man-Chi; Yeung, Kai-Hing; Chang, Wen-Lam

    2006-11-01

    Using the tropical cyclone best track data from the U.S. Department of Defense's Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Webster et al. found that between the two consecutive 15-year periods of 1975-1989 and 1990-2004, the percentage of typhoons in the western North Pacific meeting the definition of categories 4 and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale has increased from 25% to 41% of all typhoons in that ocean basin

  15. Hindcasts of Integrated Kinetic Energy in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozar, Michael; Misra, Vasubandhu

    2015-04-01

    Integrated kinetic energy (IKE) is a recently developed metric that evaluates the destructive potential of a tropical cyclone by assessing the size and strength of its wind field. Despite the potential usefulness of the IKE metric, there are few, if any, operational tools that are specifically designed to forecast IKE in real-time. Therefore, a system of artificial neural networks is created to produce deterministic and probabilistic projections of IKE in North Atlantic tropical cyclones out to 72 hours from a series of relevant environmental and storm specific normalized input parameters. In an effort to assess its real-time skill, this IKE forecasting system is run in a mock-operational mode for the 1990 to 2011 North Atlantic hurricane seasons. Hindcasts of IKE are produced in this manner by running the neural networks with hindcasted input parameters from NOAA's second generation Global Ensemble Forecasting System reforecast dataset. Ultimately, the results of the hindcast exercises indicate that the neural network system is capable of skillfully forecasting IKE in an operational setting at a level significantly higher than climatology and persistence. Ultimately, forecasts of IKE from these neural networks could potentially be an asset for operational meteorologists that would complement existing forecast tools in an effort to better assess the damage potential of landfalling tropical cyclones, particularly with regards to storm surge damage.

  16. Tropical Cyclone - Equatorial Ionosphere Coupling: A Statistical Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhagavathiammal, G. J.

    2016-07-01

    This paper describes the equatorial ionosphere response to tropical cyclone events which was observed over the Indian Ocean. This statistical study tries to reveal the possible Tropical Cyclone (TC) - Ionosphere coupling. Tropical cyclone track and data can be obtained from the India Meteorological Department, New Delhi. Digisonde/Ionosonde data for the equatorial latitudes can be obtained from Global Ionospheric Radio Observatory. It is believed that TC induced convection as the driving agent for the increased gravity wave activity in the lower atmosphere and these propagating gravity waves deposit their energy and momentum into the upper atmosphere as Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs). The convective regions are identified with the help of Outgoing Long wave radiation (OLR) data from NOAA Climate Data Center/ Precipitation data from TRMM Statellite. The variability of ionospheric parameter like Total Electron Content (TEC), foF2, h'F2 and Drift velocity are examined during TC periods. This study will report the possibility of TC-Ionosphere Coupling in equatorial atmosphere.

  17. Verification of tropical cyclone using the KIAPS Integration Model (KIM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lim, S.; Seol, K. H.

    2015-12-01

    The Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS) is a government funded non-profit research and development institute located in Seoul, South Korea. KIAPS is developing the Global Model, a backbone for the next-generation operational global numerical weather prediction (NWP) system with three-phase plans; Establishment and R&D Planning (2011-2013), Test Model Development (2014-2016), and Operational Model Development (2017-2019). As a second-phase, we have beta version of KIAPS Integration Model (KIM) that can produce reasonable global forecasting. Using the KIM model, we are evaluating the tropical cyclone forecast in the global model. To objectively provide a best estimate of the storm's central position, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) vortex tracker, widely used in tracker algorithms. It gives the track and intensity of the storm throughout the duration of the forecast based on its algorithm. As a verification tool, we use the Model Evaluation Tool - Tropical Cyclone (MET-TC), which produces statistical evaluation. We expect these results give the statue of ability for the tropical cyclone forecast with KIM model.

  18. Tropical Cyclones and Global Climate Change: A Post-IPCC Assessment.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henderson-Sellers, A.; Zhang, H.; Berz, G.; Emanuel, K.; Gray, W.; Landsea, C.; Holland, G.; Lighthill, J.; Shieh, S.-L.; Webster, P.; McGuffie, K.

    1998-01-01

    factors that govern cyclone intensity. Little, therefore, can be said about the potential changes of the distribution of intensities as opposed to maximum achievable intensity. Current knowledge and available techniques are too rudimentary for quantitative indications of potential changes in tropical cyclone frequency.The broad geographic regions of cyclogenesis and therefore also the regions affected by tropical cyclones are not expected to change significantly. It is emphasized that the popular belief that the region of cyclogenesis will expand with the 26°C SST isotherm is a fallacy. The very modest available evidence points to an expectation of little or no change in global frequency. Regional and local frequencies could change substantially in either direction, because of the dependence of cyclone genesis and track on other phenomena (e.g., ENSO) that are not yet predictable. Greatly improved skills from coupled global ocean-atmosphere models are required before improved predictions are possible.

  19. Quantification of Covariance in Tropical Cyclone Activity across Teleconnected Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tolwinski-Ward, S. E.; Wang, D.

    2015-12-01

    Rigorous statistical quantification of natural hazard covariance across regions has important implications for risk management, and is also of fundamental scientific interest. We present a multivariate Bayesian Poisson regression model for inferring the covariance in tropical cyclone (TC) counts across multiple ocean basins and across Saffir-Simpson intensity categories. Such covariability results from the influence of large-scale modes of climate variability on local environments that can alternately suppress or enhance TC genesis and intensification, and our model also simultaneously quantifies the covariance of TC counts with various climatic modes in order to deduce the source of inter-basin TC covariability. The model explicitly treats the time-dependent uncertainty in observed maximum sustained wind data, and hence the nominal intensity category of each TC. Differences in annual TC counts as measured by different agencies are also formally addressed. The probabilistic output of the model can be probed for probabilistic answers to such questions as: - Does the relationship between different categories of TCs differ statistically by basin? - Which climatic predictors have significant relationships with TC activity in each basin? - Are the relationships between counts in different basins conditionally independent given the climatic predictors, or are there other factors at play affecting inter-basin covariability? - How can a portfolio of insured property be optimized across space to minimize risk? Although we present results of our model applied to TCs, the framework is generalizable to covariance estimation between multivariate counts of natural hazards across regions and/or across peril types.

  20. Statistical Aspects of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones: Trends, Natural Variability, and Global Warming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2007-01-01

    Statistical aspects of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the interval 1945- 2005 are examined, including the variation of the yearly frequency of occurrence for various subgroups of storms (all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, major hurricanes, U.S. landfalling hurricanes, and category 4/5 hurricanes); the yearly variation of the mean latitude and longitude (genesis location) of all tropical cyclones and hurricanes; and the yearly variation of the mean peak wind speeds, lowest pressures, and durations for all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Also examined is the relationship between inferred trends found in the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity and natural variability and global warming, the latter described using surface air temperatures from the Armagh Observatory Armagh, Northern Ireland. Lastly, a simple statistical technique is employed to ascertain the expected level of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity for the upcoming 2007 season.

  1. The Impact of the Saharan Air Layer on Tropical Cyclones and Tropical Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunion, J.

    2012-12-01

    Infrared and microwave satellite imagery has steadily improved our ability to detect low to mid-level dry air at tropical latitudes and in the environments of tropical disturbances. However, understanding how this dry air affects the tropical atmosphere and tropical systems remains a difficult challenge. This presentation will discuss the impacts of intraseasonal low to mid-level dry air sources (e.g. the Saharan Air Layer and mid-latitude dry air intrusions) on the mean atmospheric state of the tropical North Atlantic and present new mean soundings for this region of the world. Discussion will also include recent research that is examining how the tropical cyclone diurnal cycle and associated diurnal pulses might provide a means for helping environmental dry air influence the storm environment. Special infrared GOES imagery reveals that the timing of these diurnal pulses in the TC environment are remarkably predictable in both time and space and suggests that these features steadily propagate away from the storm each day. As these diurnal pulses reach peripheral TC radii where low to mid-level dry air is place, substantial arc clouds (100s of km in length and lasting for several hours) have been observed forming along the leading edge of the pulse. It is hypothesized that the processes leading to the formation of arc cloud events can significantly impact an AEW or TC (particularly smaller, less developed systems). Specifically, the cool, dry air associated with the convectively-driven downdrafts that form arc clouds can help stabilize the middle to lower troposphere and may even act to stabilize the boundary layer. The arc clouds themselves may also act to disrupt the storm. As they race away from the convective core region, they create low-level outflow in the quadrant/semicircle of the AEW or TC in which they form. This outflow pattern counters the typical low-level inflow that is vital for TC formation and maintenance.

  2. Assessing Impacts of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Tracks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Li-Guang; Wang, Bin

    2003-01-01

    A new approach is proposed to assess the possible impacts of the global climate change on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin. The idea is based on the premise that the future change of TC track characteristics is primarily determined by changes in large-scale environmental steering flows. It is demonstrated that the main characteristics of the current climatology of TC tracks can be derived from the climatological mean velocity field of TC motion by using a trajectory model. The climatological mean velocity of TC motion, which is composed of the large-scale steering and beta drift, is determined on each grid of the basin. The mean beta drift is estimated from the best track data, and the mean large-scale steering flow is computed from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the current climate state. The derived mean beta drift agrees well with the results of previous observational and numerical studies in terms of its direction and magnitude. The outputs of experiments A2 and B2 of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) R30 climate model suggest that the subtropical high will be persistently weak over the western part of the WNP or shift eastward during July-September in response to the future climate change. By assuming that the mean beta drift in the future climate state is unchanged, the change in the general circulation by 2059 will decrease the TC activities in the WNP, but favor a northward shift of typical TC tracks. As a result, the storm activities in the South China Sea will decrease by about 12%, while the Japan region will experience an increase of TCs by 12-15%. During the period of 2000-2029, the tropical storms that affect the China region will increase by 5-6%, but return to the current level during 2030-2059. It is also suggested that, during the period of 2030-2059 tropical storms will more frequently affect Japan and the middle latitude region of China given that the formation locations remain the same as in the

  3. Relationship of tropical-cyclone-induced remote precipitation with tropical cyclones and the subtropical high

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xing, Rui; Ding, Zhiying; You, Sangjie; Xu, Haiming

    2016-09-01

    This study concerns the precipitation induced by a tropical cyclone (TC) before the TC arrives, which will be referred to as TC remote precipitation (TRP). Based on the distribution characteristics of the non-rotational wind and the divergent-wind vertical circulation related to TC, the subtropical high, and TRP of 45 TRP events during June, July, and August of 2000‒2009, the relationships among these three entities (TC, subtropical high, and TRP) can be categorized into four patterns. The first pattern accounts for the highest proportion of the TRP events (59%), and a conceptual model is then provided for this pattern. The primary characteristics of this model are as follows: TC, the subtropical high, and TRP can interact with each other through the divergent-wind secondary circulation at both sides of the ridge line of the subtropical high (between the subtropical high and TC, and between the subtropical high and TRP). At the upper level (150 or 200 hPa), the northward non-rotational wind from the TC converged toward the subtropical high ridge line and subsided, and at 950 hPa the divergent wind from the ridge line of the subtropical high converged toward TC; these constructed the secondary circulation between TC and the subtropical high. In the meantime, the southward nonrotational wind at the upper level (150 or 200 hPa) from TRP and the divergent wind at 950 hPa from the subtropical high ridge line toward TRP constructed the secondary circulation between TRP and the subtropical high. As TC and TRP interacted with each other, the subtropical high ridge line was usually under the downdraft area of the whole atmosphere. The other three patterns are different from the first pattern mainly in terms of the intensity and position of the non-rotational-wind secondary circulation. The numerical simulation of the Beijing 7•21 rainstorm confirmed the relationship among TC, the subtropical high, and TRP, indicating that when the interaction weakened, the TRP also

  4. Nimbus-7 total ozone observations of western North Pacific tropical cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stout, John; Rodgers, Edward B.

    1992-01-01

    The Nimbus-7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) was used to map the distribution of total ozone around western North Pacific tropical cyclones from 1979 to 1982. The strong correlation between total ozone distribution and tropopause height found in the subtropical and midlatitudes made it possible for TOMS to monitor the propagation of upper-tropospheric waves and the mutual adjustment between these waves and tropical cyclones during their interaction. Changes in these total ozone patterns reflect the 3D upper-tropospheric transport processes that are involved in tropical cyclone intensity and intensity and motion changes. The total ozone distributions indicate that: (1) the mean upper-tropospheric circulations associated with western North Pacific and Atlantic tropical cyclones are similar; (2) more intense tropical cyclones have higher tropopauses around their centers; (3) more intense tropical cyclones have higher tropopauses on the anticyclonic-shear side of their outflow jets, which indicate that the more intense tropical cyclones have stronger outflow channels than less intense systems; (4) tropical cyclones that intensify (do not intensify) are within 10 deg (15 deg) latitude of weak (strong) upper-tropospheric troughs that are moderately rich (very rich) in total ozone; and (5) tropical cyclones turn to the left (right) when they move within approximately 15 deg latitude downstream of an ozone-poor (ozone-rich) upper-tropospheric ridge (trough).

  5. The relationship of tropical cyclone size with ENSO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Camargo, S. J.; Knaff, J. A.; Chavas, D. R.

    2015-12-01

    Recently, two independent tropical cyclone size satellite-based datasets were developed, the first by Jonh Knaff and collaborators (Knaff et al. 2014) and the second by Daniel Chavas and collaborators (Chavas et al. 2015). Estimates of TC size are available for all basins for the period 1978-2013. The climatological characteristics of TC size show interesting properties, varying by basin, TC intensity and latitude. Here we further analyze these datasets, by considering the dependence of TC size with the phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in various basins. Preliminary results in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific, show that the TC size distributions in these basins are statistically significant distinct in El Niño and La Niña years and are basin dependent. Furthermore, these shifts in the TC size distribution are not the same for all types of storms, with different TC size distributions shifts with ENSO phase for tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes. In this talk, we will present our results of on how TC distributions in all basins vary with ENSO and TC characteristics, such as intensity, lifetime, latitude, and seasonality. The differences and similarities between the results of the 2 size datasets will also be discussed. References: Chavas, D.R., N. Lin, W. Dong, and Y. Lin, 2015: Observed tropical cyclone size revisited. In prep.Knaff, J.A., S.P. Longmore, and D.A. Molenar, 2014: An objective satellite-based tropical cyclone size climatology. J. Climate, 27, 455-476.

  6. Tropical cyclone waves detected with infrasound sensor array

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2013-02-01

    The strong winds of a tropical cyclone whip up the sea surface, driving ocean waves a dozen meters high. When one such ocean wave runs into another wave that has an equal period but is traveling in the opposite direction, the interaction produces low-frequency sound waves that can be detected thousands of kilometers away. The infrasound signals produced by interacting ocean surface waves—known as microbarom—have typical frequencies around 0.2 hertz. Researchers previously determined that as a hurricane travels along its track, early waves generated by the storm will interact with those generated later on, producing a strong microbarom signal in the storm's wake. Researchers also found, however, that microbarom signals are produced by regular surface ocean behavior, including swell, surface waves, and nontropical cyclone storms.

  7. Relation of tropical cyclone structure with thundersorm activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shevtsov, B. M.; Permyakov, M. S.; Potalova, E. Yu.; Cherneva, N. V.; Holzworth, Robert

    2015-11-01

    Synoptic and mesoscale cyclone systems over an ocean and seas are often accompanied by thunderstorm activity, which intensity and spatial distribution are modulated by the dynamic structure of these systems. The paper considers a method connecting the parameters of this thunderstorm activity with weather system structures over oceans and seas with mesoscale formation intensities and forms in these systems determined by driving wind vortex fields of scatterometers and by satellite images in visible and infrared ranges. On the example of separate tropical cyclones (TC) of 2005-2013, the relation of lightning discharge frequency and density in the TC area of influence and spatial distribution of driving wind vortex is shown. The work was supported by the Russian-American Grant RUG1-7084-PA- 13 in the area of fundamental researches of FEB RAS and CRDF.

  8. Disaster triggers disaster: Earthquake triggering by tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wdowinski, S.; Tsukanov, I.

    2011-12-01

    Three recent devastating earthquakes, the 1999 M=7.6 Chi-Chi (Taiwan), 2010 M=7.0 Leogane (Haiti), 2010 M=6.4 Kaohsiung (Taiwan), and additional three moderate size earthquakes (6tropical mountainous areas shortly after very wet tropical cyclones (hurricane or typhoon) hit the very same area. The most familiar example is Haiti, which was hit during the late summer of 2008 by two hurricanes and two tropical storms (Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike) within 25 days. A year an a half after this very wet hurricane season, the 2010 Leogane earthquake occurred in the mountainous Haiti's southern peninsula and caused the death of more than 300,000 people. The other cases are from Taiwan, which is characterized by a high seismicity level and frequent typhoon landfall. The three wettest typhoons in Taiwan's past 50 years were Morakot (in 2009, with 2885 mm or rain), Flossie (1969, 2162 mm) and Herb (1996, 1987 mm)[Lin et al., 2010]. Each of this three very wet storms was followed by one or two main-shock M>6 earthquake that occurred in the central mountainous area of Taiwan within three years after the typhoon. The 2009 Morakot typhoon was followed by 2009 M=6.2 Nantou and 2010 M=6.4 Kaohsiung earthquakes; the 1969 Flossie typhoon was followed by an M=6.3 earthquake in 1972; and the 1996 Herb typhoon by the 1998 M=6.2 Rueyli and 1999 M=7.6 Chi-Chi earthquakes. The earthquake catalog of Taiwan lists only two other M>6 main-shocks that occurred in Taiwan's central mountainous belt, one of them was in 1964 only four months after the wet Typhoon Gloria poured heavy rain in the same area. We suggest that the close proximity in time and space between wet tropical cyclones and earthquakes reflects a physical link between the two hazard types in which these earthquakes were triggered by rapid erosion induced by tropical cyclone's heavy rain. Based on remote sensing observations, meshfree finite element modeling, and Coulomb failure stress analysis, we show that the

  9. Structural analysis of tropical cyclone using INSAT-3D observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaiswal, Neeru; Kishtawal, C. M.

    2016-05-01

    The continuous observations from visible and thermal infrared (TIR) channels of geostationary satellites are highly useful for obtaining the features associated with the shape and dynamics of cloud structures within the tropical cyclones (TCs). As TC develops from an unstructured cloud cluster and intensifies, the cloud structures become more axisymmetric around the centre of the TC. To better understand the structure of TC during different stages of its evolution i.e. from its cyclogenesis to maturity and dissipation, the continuous satellite observations plays a key role. The high spatial and temporal resolution observations from geostationary satellites are very useful in order to analyze the cloud organization during the cyclogenesis. The gradient of the brightness temperatures measures the level of symmetry of each structure, which characterizes the degree of cloud organization of the TC. In the present work, the structural analysis of TC during its life period using the observations from Indian geostationary satellite INSAT-3D has been discussed. The visible and TIR observations from INSAT-3D satellite were used to fix the center position of the cyclone which is an input for the cyclone track and intensity prediction models. This data is also used to estimate the intensity of cyclone in the advanced Dvorak technique (ADT), and in the estimation of radius of maximum winds (Rmax) of TC which is an essential input parameter for the prediction of storm surge associated to the cyclones. The different patterns of cloud structure during the intensification stage, eye-wall formation and dissipation have been discussed. The early identification of these features helps in predicting the rapid intensification of TC which in turn improves the intensity predictions.

  10. Viewing the top of the cyclone: CALIOP Ice water content in the uppermost layer of tropical cyclones, 2006 - 2011

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avery, M. A.; Heymsfield, A.; Young, S.; Deng, M.; Holz, R. E.; Smith, W.; Vaughan, M.

    2012-12-01

    NASA's Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) is ideally suited to viewing the very top of tropical cyclones. CALIOP measures 532 nm backscattered light, at both parallel and perpendicular polarizations. The backscattered signal, with 60 m vertical resolution, provides an accurate measurement of tropical cyclone cloud top heights. Ice water content is parameterized from optical extinction coefficients. Extinction coefficients are retrieved as the 532 nm beam penetrates the cloud deck, until attenuation occurs at an effective optical depth of approximately three. Depolarization provides some insight about particle habit. CALIOP sensitivity to cloud ice water content in the uppermost layer is 0.1 mg/m3, a detection range that includes sub-visible cirrus. Most hurricane or tropical cyclone measurements are focused on the middle and lower regions of storms, but characterization of cyclone interaction with the lowermost stratosphere at the upper storm boundary may be important for determining the total momentum and moisture transport budget. A survey of 5 years of CALIOP observations of the uppermost layer of tropical cyclones is presented, including more detailed analysis of Hurricanes Bill, Karl, and Earl, and Typhoons Bud, Ileana and Choi-wan. For reference, CALIOP observations of cloud top height and ice water content are also compared with MODIS and CloudSat observations during these six tropical cyclones. A surprising amount of cloud ice is to be found between 16 - 19 km, at the very top of these big storms.

  11. Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment.

    PubMed

    Webster, P J; Holland, G J; Curry, J A; Chang, H-R

    2005-09-16

    We examined the number of tropical cyclones and cyclone days as well as tropical cyclone intensity over the past 35 years, in an environment of increasing sea surface temperature. A large increase was seen in the number and proportion of hurricanes reaching categories 4 and 5. The largest increase occurred in the North Pacific, Indian, and Southwest Pacific Oceans, and the smallest percentage increase occurred in the North Atlantic Ocean. These increases have taken place while the number of cyclones and cyclone days has decreased in all basins except the North Atlantic during the past decade.

  12. The Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation in Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowman, K. P.; Fowler, M. D.

    2015-12-01

    Position and intensity data from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) are combined with global, gridded precipitation estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) for the period 1998 to 2013 to study diurnal variability of precipitation in tropical cyclones. The comprehensive global coverage and large sample size afforded by the two data sets allow robust statistical analysis of storm-averaged diurnal variations and permit stratification of the data in various ways. There is a clearly detectable diurnal variation of precipitation in tropical cyclones with peak rainfall occurring near 0600 local time. For storms of all intensities the amplitude of the diurnal harmonic, which dominates the diurnal cycle, is approximately 7% of the mean rain rate. This corresponds to a peak-to-peak variation of about 15% over the course of the day. The diurnal cycle is similar in all ocean basins. There is evidence that the amplitude of the diurnal cycle increases with increasing storm intensity, but the results are not statistically significant. The results have implications for hurricane forecasting and for our understanding of the processes that regulate oceanic convection.

  13. Impacts of tropical cyclones on U.S. forest tree mortality and carbon flux from 1851 to 2000.

    PubMed

    Zeng, Hongcheng; Chambers, Jeffrey Q; Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I; Hurtt, George C; Baker, David B; Powell, Mark D

    2009-05-12

    Tropical cyclones cause extensive tree mortality and damage to forested ecosystems. A number of patterns in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity have been identified. There exist, however, few studies on the dynamic impacts of historical tropical cyclones at a continental scale. Here, we synthesized field measurements, satellite image analyses, and empirical models to evaluate forest and carbon cycle impacts for historical tropical cyclones from 1851 to 2000 over the continental U.S. Results demonstrated an average of 97 million trees affected each year over the entire United States, with a 53-Tg annual biomass loss, and an average carbon release of 25 Tg y(-1). Over the period 1980-1990, released CO(2) potentially offset the carbon sink in forest trees by 9-18% over the entire United States. U.S. forests also experienced twice the impact before 1900 than after 1900 because of more active tropical cyclones and a larger extent of forested areas. Forest impacts were primarily located in Gulf Coast areas, particularly southern Texas and Louisiana and south Florida, while significant impacts also occurred in eastern North Carolina. Results serve as an important baseline for evaluating how potential future changes in hurricane frequency and intensity will impact forest tree mortality and carbon balance.

  14. Impact of horizontal spatial resolution on the derivation of the source receptor relationship—an extra-tropical cyclone case

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Jae-Bum; Lee, Tae-Young

    2004-11-01

    A numerical study has been made to evaluate the impact of horizontal resolution on the estimation of the source receptor (S R) relationship. Numerical experiments with four different horizontal grid sizes have been performed for an extra-tropical cyclonic episode in East Asia. CSU RAMS and YU-SADM (Yonsei University's sulfuric acid deposition model) have been used to simulate meteorological and pollutant fields, respectively.In this study, enhanced spatial resolution has improved the simulation of an extra-tropical cyclone, cold front and associated precipitation systems. As spatial resolution increases, the circulation associated with the cyclone and cold front becomes stronger, and the amount of frontal rainfall increases. This study has shown that enhancement of spatial resolution tends to increase self-contributions but decrease foreign contributions to the wet deposition associated with an extra-tropical cyclone. It has been found that increased precipitation for enhanced spatial resolution reduces the amount of transported pollutant but increases the wet deposition of locally emitted pollutants. The larger self-contribution for higher resolutions may also be partially due to the increased strength of resolved convection. The impact of enhancing spatial resolution on dry deposition is felt mostly over downstream regions where the centres of the lows and fronts pass. Contributions from upstream sources increase as cyclonic circulation becomes stronger with increasing spatial resolution. On the other hand, enhancing spatial resolution does not significantly affect the S R relationship for either dry or wet deposition in the other regions where the extra-tropical cyclone does not pass. This study indicates that improved simulation of a cold front does not significantly affect the S R relationship for wet deposition over the area of passage of the cold front. An additional discussion infers a S R relationship for the wet deposition associated with a typical extra-tropical

  15. Global view of the upper level outflow patterns associated with tropical cyclone intensity changes during FGGE

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, L.; Gray, W. M.

    1985-01-01

    The characteristics of the upper tropospheric outflow patterns which occur with tropical cyclone intensification and weakening over all of the global tropical cyclone basins during the year long period of the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) are discussed. By intensification is meant the change in the tropical cyclone's maximum wind or central pressure, not the change of the cyclone's outer 1 to 3 deg radius mean wind which we classify as cyclone strength. All the 80 tropical cyclones which existed during the FGGE year are studied. Two-hundred mb wind fields are derived from the analysis of the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) which makes extensive use of upper tropospheric satellite and aircraft winds. Corresponding satellite cloud pictures from the polar orbiting U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and other supplementary polar and geostationary satellite data are also used.

  16. Analysis of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensify Change Using Data Mining

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tang, Jiang

    2010-01-01

    Tropical cyclones (TC), especially when their intensity reaches hurricane scale, can become a costly natural hazard. Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone intensity is very difficult because of inadequate observations on TC structures, poor understanding of physical processes, coarse model resolution and inaccurate initial conditions, etc. This…

  17. Effect of tropical cyclones on the tropical tropopause parameters observed using COSMIC GPS RO data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babu, S. Ravindra; Venkat Ratnam, M.; Basha, Ghouse; Krishnamurthy, B. V.; Venkateswara Rao, B.

    2015-05-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are deep convective synoptic scale systems and play an important role in modifying the thermal structure, tropical tropopause parameters and hence stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) processes. In the present study, high vertical resolution and high accuracy measurements from COSMIC Global Positioning System (GPS) Radio Occultation (RO) measurements are used to investigate and quantify the effect of tropical cyclones that occurred over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea in last decade on the tropical tropopause parameters. The tropopause parameters include cold point tropopause altitude (CPH) and temperature (CPT), lapse rate tropopause altitude (LRH) and temperature (LRT) and the thickness of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL), that is defined as the layer between convective outflow level (COH) and CPH, obtained from GPS RO data. From all the TCs events, we generate the mean cyclone-centered composite structure for the tropopause parameters and removed from climatological mean obtained from averaging the GPS RO data from 2002-2013. Since the TCs include eye, eye walls and deep convective bands, we obtained the tropopause parameters based on radial distance from cyclone eye. In general, decrease in the CPH in the eye is noticed as expected. However, as the distance from cyclone eye increases by 3, 4, and 5° an enhancement in CPH (CPT), LRH (LRT) are observed. Lowering of CPH (0.6 km) and LRH (0.4 km) values with coldest CPT and LRT (2-3 K) within the 500 km radius from the TC centre is noticed. Higher (2 km) COH leading to the lowering of TTL thickness (2-3 km) is clearly observed. There exists multiple tropopause structures in the profiles of temperature obtained within 1° from centre of TC. These changes in the tropopause parameters are expected to influence the water vapour transport from troposphere to lower stratosphere and ozone from lower stratosphere to the upper troposphere and hence STE processes.

  18. Rainfall Generated By The Incidence Of Two Simultaneous Tropical Cyclones In Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandez, D. C.; Brena-Naranjo, J. A. A.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.

    2014-12-01

    The objective of this study is to characterize the registered rainfall originated from the simultaneous incidence of two tropical cyclones in Mexico, during September 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel in the Pacific and Hurricane Ingrid (category 1) in the Gulf of Mexico, made landfall during a 24 hours period on September 15 and 18, 2013. Both systems, affected 77% of Mexican territory with heavy rainfall producing landslides and severe flooding. The unprecedented occurrence of two simultaneous tropical cyclones, along with the large damages registered in the country; make evident the need for a careful examination of the rainfall produced by their simultaneous incidence. For this, we utilize information from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM), in combination with data from the rain gauge observations (from 1st to 16th September 2013). The selected remotely sensed products correspond to the TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), 3B42RT and 3B42V7. Additionally, we estimate the performance of the TRMM products through well-known error metrics derived from the comparison of both, registered rainfall by rain gauges and that determined from 607 TMPA cells (0.25° x 0.25° containing at least one rain gauge). Results show that rainfall produced by the incidence of both storms, is similar to that registered as if the events occurred separately, accounting for about 10% of the annual precipitation total of 2013. Moreover, spatially averaged results indicate that the product 3B42V7 is a good estimate of daily precipitation across the country, while the TMPA 3B42RT product underestimates the amount of rainfall due to cyclonic events. Therefore, TMPA products provide acceptable estimates of rainfall for large-scale cyclonic events.

  19. Abstracting the Pacific Ocean's Impact on North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faghmous, J.; Le, M.; Liess, S.; Mesquita, M.; Kumar, V.

    2012-12-01

    The warming anomalies of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the near- equatorial Pacific Ocean (ENSO) have well documented global long-range weather teleconnections from rainfall in southern India to mudslides in the western United States. In this work, we focus on ENSO's teleconnections with North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity. Traditionally, ENSO's impact on Atlantic TCs has been abstracted by monitoring the warming of static regions along the equatorial Pacific Ocean. We propose that the spatial distribution of Pacific Ocean warming might provide better predictive insights into ENSO-Atlantic TC impact than warming anomalies alone. We present a distance-based ENSO index (S-ENSO for spatial ENSO) that tracks the location of the maximum near-tropical Pacific warming anomaly instead the absolute warming of a static region. Our spatial ENSO index correlates better with seasonal TC activity than standard ENSO indices, especially with increased lead times.

  20. Projection of future changes in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sugi, Masato; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Yoshida, Kohei

    2016-09-01

    Recent modeling studies have consistently shown that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will decrease but that of very intense tropical cyclones may increase in the future warmer climate. It has been noted, however, that the uncertainty in the projected changes in the frequency of very intense tropical cyclones, particularly the changes in the regional frequency, is very large. Here we present a projection of the changes in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones estimated by a statistical downscaling of ensemble of many high-resolution global model experiments. The results indicate that the changes in the frequency of very intense (category 4 and 5) tropical cyclones are not uniform on the globe. The frequency will increase in most regions but decrease in the south western part of Northwest Pacific, the South Pacific, and eastern part of the South Indian Ocean.

  1. Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years.

    PubMed

    Emanuel, Kerry

    2005-08-01

    Theory and modelling predict that hurricane intensity should increase with increasing global mean temperatures, but work on the detection of trends in hurricane activity has focused mostly on their frequency and shows no trend. Here I define an index of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of power, integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone, and show that this index has increased markedly since the mid-1970s. This trend is due to both longer storm lifetimes and greater storm intensities. I find that the record of net hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with tropical sea surface temperature, reflecting well-documented climate signals, including multi-decadal oscillations in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and global warming. My results suggest that future warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive potential, and--taking into account an increasing coastal population--a substantial increase in hurricane-related losses in the twenty-first century.

  2. Measuring wind and stress under tropical cyclones with scatterometer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, W. Timothy

    2016-07-01

    Ocean surface stress, the turbulent transport of momentum, is largely derived from wind through a drag coefficient. In tropical cyclones (TC), scatterometers have difficulty in measuring strong wind and there is large uncertainty in the drag coefficient. We postulate that the microwave backscatter from ocean surface roughness, which is in equilibrium with local stress, does not distinguish weather systems. The reduced sensitivity of scatterometer wind retrieval algorithm under the strong wind is an air-sea interaction problem that is caused by a change in the behavior of the drag coefficient and not a sensor problem. Under this assumption, we applied a stress retrieval algorithm developed over a moderate wind range to retrieve stress under the strong winds of TCs. Over a moderate wind range, the abundant wind measurements and more established drag coefficient value allow sufficient stress data to be computed from wind to develop a stress retrieval algorithm for the scatterometer. Using unprecedented large amount of stress retrieved from the scatterometer coincident with strong winds in TC, we showed that the drag coefficient decreases with wind speed at a much steeper rate than previously revealed, for wind speeds over 25 m/s. The result implies that the ocean applies less drag to inhibit TC intensification and the TC causes less ocean mixing and surface cooling than previous studies indicated. With continuous and extensive coverage from constellations of scatterometers for several decades, the impact of tropical cyclones on the ocean and the feedback from the ocean are examined.

  3. Classic Maya civilization collapse associated with reduction in tropical cyclone activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medina, M. A.; Polanco-Martinez, J. M.; Lases-Hernández, F.; Bradley, R. S.; Burns, S. J.

    2013-12-01

    In light of the increased destructiveness of tropical cyclones observed over recent decades one might assume that an increase and not a decrease in tropical cyclone activity would lead to societal stress and perhaps collapse of ancient cultures. In this study we present evidence that a reduction in the frequency and intensity of tropical Atlantic cyclones could have contributed to the collapse of the Maya civilization during the Terminal Classic Period (TCP, AD. 800-950). Statistical comparisons of a quantitative precipitation record from the Yucatan Peninsula (YP) Maya lowlands, based on the stalagmite known as Chaac (after the Mayan God of rain and agriculture), relative to environmental proxy records of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and tropical Atlantic cyclone counts, suggest that these records share significant coherent variability during the TCP and that summer rainfall reductions between 30 and 50% in the Maya lowlands occurred in association with decreased Atlantic tropical cyclones. Analysis of modern instrumental hydrological data suggests cyclone rainfall contributions to the YP equivalent to the range of rainfall deficits associated with decreased tropical cyclone activity during the collapse of the Maya civilization. Cyclone driven precipitation variability during the TCP, implies that climate change may have triggered Maya civilization collapse via freshwater scarcity for domestic use without significant detriment to agriculture. Pyramid in Tikal, the most prominent Maya Kingdom that collapsed during the Terminal Classic Period (circa C.E. 800-950) Rainfall feeding stalagmites inside Rio Secreto cave system, Yucatan, Mexico.

  4. Impact of aerosols on tropical cyclones: An investigation using convection-permitting model simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hazra, Anupam; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Taraphdar, S.; Chen, J.-P.; Cotton, William R.

    2013-07-01

    role of aerosols' effect on two tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal is investigated using a convection-permitting model with a two-moment mixed-phase bulk cloud microphysics scheme. The simulation results show the role of aerosol on the microphysical and dynamical properties of the cloud and bring out the change in efficiency of the clouds in producing precipitation. The tracks of the tropical cyclones (TCs) are hardly affected by the changing aerosol concentrations, but the intensity exhibits significant sensitivity due to the change in aerosol concentration. It is also clearly seen from the analyses that higher heating in the middle troposphere within the cyclone center is in response to latent heat release as a consequence of greater graupel formation. Greater heating in the middle level is particularly noticeable for the clean aerosol regime which causes enhanced divergence in the upper level, which, in turn, forces lower level convergence. As a result, the cleaner aerosol perturbation is more unstable within the cyclone core and produces a more intense cyclone as compared to the other two aerosol perturbations. This study, along with previous simulations, shows the robustness of the concept of TC weakening by storm ingestion of high concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The consistency of these model results gives us confidence in stating that there is a high probability that ingestion of high CCN concentrations in a TC will lead to weakening of the storm but has little impact on storm direction. Moreover, as pollution is increasing over the Indian subcontinent, this study suggests that pollution may be weakening TCs over the Bay of Bengal.

  5. Trade-off between Intensity and Frequency of Global Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, N. Y.; Elsner, J.

    2015-12-01

    Global tropical cyclone climate has been investigated with indicators of frequency, intensity and activity. However, a full understanding of global warming's influence on tropical cyclone climate remains elusive because of the incomplete nature of these indicators. Here we form a complete three-dimensional variability space of tropical cyclone climate where the variabilities are continuously linked and find that global ocean warmth best explains the out-of-phase relationship between intensity and frequency of global tropical cyclones. In a year with greater ocean warmth, the tropical troposphere is capped by higher pressure anomaly in the middle and upper troposphere even with higher moist static energy anomaly in the lower troposphere, which is thought to inhibit overall tropical cyclone occurrences but lead to greater intensities. Statistical consequence is the trade-off between intensity and frequency. We calculate an average increase in global tropical cyclone intensity of 1.3 m/s over the past 30 years of ocean warming occurring at the expense of 6.1 tropical cyclones worldwide.

  6. Mediterranean Tropical-like Cyclones: Present and Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cavicchia, Leone; von Storch, Hans; Gualdi, Silvio

    2014-05-01

    The Mediterranean basin is characterized by the genesis of a large number of cyclonic systems. Most of the cyclones generated in this area have a baroclinic nature. A few storms every year, however, develop a dynamical evolution similar to the one of tropical cyclones, showing an axis-symmetric vertical profile, a warm core, a cloud-free eye surrounded by a cloud cover with spiral shape, and winds up to the hurricane speed. The strongest between such storms exhibit a striking resemblance to the lower-latitudes hurricanes, except for the mesoscale spatial extent, and have thus been termed medicanes (Mediterranean hurricanes). Medicanes are considered rare phenomena, - the number of observed cases documented in the literature is around ten - but are associated to severe damage on coastal areas. Due to the scarcity of observations over sea, and to the coarse resolution of the long-term reanalysis datasets, it is difficult to construct a homogeneous statistics of the formation of medicanes. Using an approach (tested on a number of historical medicane cases) based on the high-resolution dynamical downscaling of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, and exploiting an objective detection algorithm specifically designed to single out the features of medicanes, the statistical properties of such storms (annual cycle, decadal and inter-annual variability, geographical distribution, trends) over the last six decades have been studied in a systematic way, and the linkage between the frequency of medicanes formation and synoptic patterns has been investigated. It was found that medicanes occur indeed with a low frequency, and that they are formed mostly during the cold season in the western Mediterranean and in the region extending between the Ionian Sea and the northern coast of Africa. The analysis of the environmental factors related with the formation of medicanes shows that the genesis mechanism requires a sufficiently large difference between the sea surface temperature and the

  7. Tropical cyclones and permanent El Niño in the early Pliocene epoch.

    PubMed

    Fedorov, Alexey V; Brierley, Christopher M; Emanuel, Kerry

    2010-02-25

    Tropical cyclones (also known as hurricanes and typhoons) are now believed to be an important component of the Earth's climate system. In particular, by vigorously mixing the upper ocean, they can affect the ocean's heat uptake, poleward heat transport, and hence global temperatures. Changes in the distribution and frequency of tropical cyclones could therefore become an important element of the climate response to global warming. A potential analogue to modern greenhouse conditions, the climate of the early Pliocene epoch (approximately 5 to 3 million years ago) can provide important clues to this response. Here we describe a positive feedback between hurricanes and the upper-ocean circulation in the tropical Pacific Ocean that may have been essential for maintaining warm, El Niño-like conditions during the early Pliocene. This feedback is based on the ability of hurricanes to warm water parcels that travel towards the Equator at shallow depths and then resurface in the eastern equatorial Pacific as part of the ocean's wind-driven circulation. In the present climate, very few hurricane tracks intersect the parcel trajectories; consequently, there is little heat exchange between waters at such depths and the surface. More frequent and/or stronger hurricanes in the central Pacific imply greater heating of the parcels, warmer temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, warmer tropics and, in turn, even more hurricanes. Using a downscaling hurricane model, we show dramatic shifts in the tropical cyclone distribution for the early Pliocene that favour this feedback. Further calculations with a coupled climate model support our conclusions. The proposed feedback should be relevant to past equable climates and potentially to contemporary climate change.

  8. Tropical cyclones and permanent El Niño in the early Pliocene epoch.

    PubMed

    Fedorov, Alexey V; Brierley, Christopher M; Emanuel, Kerry

    2010-02-25

    Tropical cyclones (also known as hurricanes and typhoons) are now believed to be an important component of the Earth's climate system. In particular, by vigorously mixing the upper ocean, they can affect the ocean's heat uptake, poleward heat transport, and hence global temperatures. Changes in the distribution and frequency of tropical cyclones could therefore become an important element of the climate response to global warming. A potential analogue to modern greenhouse conditions, the climate of the early Pliocene epoch (approximately 5 to 3 million years ago) can provide important clues to this response. Here we describe a positive feedback between hurricanes and the upper-ocean circulation in the tropical Pacific Ocean that may have been essential for maintaining warm, El Niño-like conditions during the early Pliocene. This feedback is based on the ability of hurricanes to warm water parcels that travel towards the Equator at shallow depths and then resurface in the eastern equatorial Pacific as part of the ocean's wind-driven circulation. In the present climate, very few hurricane tracks intersect the parcel trajectories; consequently, there is little heat exchange between waters at such depths and the surface. More frequent and/or stronger hurricanes in the central Pacific imply greater heating of the parcels, warmer temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, warmer tropics and, in turn, even more hurricanes. Using a downscaling hurricane model, we show dramatic shifts in the tropical cyclone distribution for the early Pliocene that favour this feedback. Further calculations with a coupled climate model support our conclusions. The proposed feedback should be relevant to past equable climates and potentially to contemporary climate change. PMID:20182509

  9. A spatial climatology of precipitation from North Atlantic tropical cyclones over the Eastern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Y.

    2015-12-01

    The precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) over the eastern U.S has drawn significant attention from researchers. Among studies about tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP), separating rainfall into tropical and non-tropical cyclone components is a challenging task. Therefore, a need exists for continued spatial climatological analysis of rainfall associated of TCs. To provide a long-term climatology of TCP in this study, 305 TCs having tracks located within 500 km of the U.S. coastline from 1948-2012 are examined. The daily precipitation amounts on 0.25°× 0.25° latitude-longitude grids are from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Unified Precipitation Data (UPD). A GIS and Python based method is developed to identify rainfall swaths produced by TCs. Then we overlay all TCP swaths on a U.S. county map to get cumulative frequency of counties receiving rainfall from a TC with value greater than 25.4 mm. We find that there are 2533 counties in 25 states had been affected by TCP with value greater than 25.4 mm at least once during 1948 to 2012. The total area of TCP and TCP area averaged by annual TC counts and days shows significant increases after the 1990s. By comparing the rainfall swaths to the wind swaths as reported by previous work, we determine the frequency with which locations receive either condition produced by TCs. The results reveal that TCPs extend more inland and have more frequency than TC winds, since TC winds decays quickly after make landfall, while rainfall field may expand due to extra-tropical transition or land surface conditions.

  10. Large-scale factors in tropical and extratropical cyclone transition and extreme weather events.

    PubMed

    Pezza, Alexandre Bernardes; Simmonds, Ian

    2008-12-01

    Transition mechanisms characterizing changes from hurricanes to midlatitude cyclones and vice-versa (extratropical and tropical transition) have become a topic of increasing interest, partially because of their association with recent unusual storms that have developed in different ocean basins of both hemispheres. The aim of this work is to discuss some recent cases of transition and highly unusual hurricane developments and to address some of their wider implications for climate science. Frequently those dramatic cyclones are responsible for severe weather, potentially causing significant damage to property and infrastructure. An additional manifestation discussed here is their association with cold surges, a topic that has been very little explored in the literature. In the Southern Hemisphere, the first South Atlantic hurricane, Catarina, developed in March 2004 under very unusual large-scale conditions. That exceptional cyclone is viewed as a case of tropical transition facilitated by a well-developed blocking structure. A new index for monitoring tropical transition in the subtropical South Atlantic is discussed. This "South Atlantic index" is used to show that the unusual flow during and prior to Catarina's genesis can be attributed to tropical/extratropical interaction mechanisms. The "Donald Duck" case in Australia and Vince in the North Atlantic have also been examined and shown to belong to a category of hybrid-transitioning systems that will achieve at least partial tropical transition. While clearly more research is needed on the topic of transition, as we gain further insight, it is becoming increasingly apparent that features of large-scale circulation do play a fundamental role. A complex interaction between an extratropical transition case and an extreme summer cold surge affecting southeastern Australia is discussed as an example of wider climate implications.

  11. Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Errors using GDAPS (UM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, D.; Kim, J.; Chang, K.; Byun, K.; Lee, J.

    2013-12-01

    After the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) began issuing official five-day tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts in 2003, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) started issuing official five-day forecasts of TCs in May 2012 after 2 year of beta test. Forming a selective consensus (SCON) by proper removal of a likely erroneous track forecast is hypothesized to be more accurate than the non-selective consensus (NCON) of all model tracks that are used for the five-day forecasts. Conceptual models describing large track error mechanisms, which are related to known tropical cyclone motion processes being misrepresented in the dynamical models, are applied to forecasts during the 2012 western North Pacific typhoon season by the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS (UM N512 L70)) which is KMA's main operational model. GDAPS (UM) is one of consensus members used in making KMA's five-day forecasts and thus analysis of its track error tendencies would be useful for forming a SCON forecast. All 72-h track errors greater than 320 km are examined on the basis of the approach developed by Carr and Elsberry (2000a, b). Tropical-influenced error sources caused 37% (47 times / 126 erroneous forecasts) of the GDAPS (UM) large track forecast errors primarily because an incorrect beta effect-related process depicted by the model contributed to the erroneous forecasts. Midlatitude-influenced error sources accounted for 63% (79 times / 126 error cases) in the GDAPS (UM) erroneous forecasts mainly due to an incorrect forecast of the midlatitude system evolutions. It is proposed that KMA will be able to issue more reliable TC track information if a likely model track error is recognized by optimum use of conceptual models by Carr and Elsberry (2000a, b) and a selective consensus track is then the basis for an improved warning.

  12. Impacts of Tropical Cyclones and Accompanying Precipitation on Infectious Diarrhea in Cyclone Landing Areas of Zhejiang Province, China

    PubMed Central

    Deng, Zhengyi; Xun, Huanmiao; Zhou, Maigeng; Jiang, Baofa; Wang, Songwang; Guo, Qing; Wang, Wei; Kang, Ruihua; Wang, Xin; Marley, Gifty; Ma, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Background: Zhejiang Province, located in southeastern China, is frequently hit by tropical cyclones. This study quantified the associations between infectious diarrhea and the seven tropical cyclones that landed in Zhejiang from 2005–2011 to assess the impacts of the accompanying precipitation on the studied diseases. Method: A unidirectional case-crossover study design was used to evaluate the impacts of tropical storms and typhoons on infectious diarrhea. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to eliminate multicollinearity. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) and the 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: For all typhoons studied, the greatest impacts on bacillary dysentery and other infectious diarrhea were identified on lag 6 days (OR = 2.30, 95% CI: 1.81–2.93) and lag 5 days (OR = 3.56, 95% CI: 2.98–4.25), respectively. For all tropical storms, impacts on these diseases were highest on lag 2 days (OR = 2.47, 95% CI: 1.41–4.33) and lag 6 days (OR = 2.46, 95% CI: 1.69–3.56), respectively. The tropical cyclone precipitation was a risk factor for both bacillary dysentery and other infectious diarrhea when daily precipitation reached 25 mm and 50 mm with the largest OR = 3.25 (95% CI: 1.45–7.27) and OR = 3.05 (95% CI: 2.20–4.23), respectively. Conclusions: Both typhoons and tropical storms could contribute to an increase in risk of bacillary dysentery and other infectious diarrhea in Zhejiang. Tropical cyclone precipitation may also be a risk factor for these diseases when it reaches or is above 25 mm and 50 mm, respectively. Public health preventive and intervention measures should consider the adverse health impacts from tropical cyclones. PMID:25622139

  13. Solar forcing over the last 1500 years and Australian tropical cyclone activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haig, Jordahna Ellan-Ann; Nott, Jonathan

    2016-03-01

    Accurate seasonal and decadal predictions of tropical cyclone activity are essential for the development of mitigation strategies for the 2.7 billion residents living within cyclone prone regions. The traditional indices (Southern Oscillation Index and various sea surface temperature indices) have fallen short in recent years as seasonal predictors within the Australian region. The short length of these records (i.e., <50 years) has meant that our current knowledge of larger-scale drivers at interdecadal, centennial, and millennial scales is limited. The development of a new tropical cyclone activity index spanning the last 1500 years has enabled the examination of tropical cyclone climatology at higher temporal resolution than was previously possible. Here we show that in addition to other well-known climate indices, solar forcing largely drives decadal, interdecadal, and centennial cycles within the tropical cyclone record.

  14. An Estimate of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for the 2011 Hurricane Season

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2011-01-01

    Estimates are presented for the expected level of tropical cyclone activity for the 2011 North Atlantic Basin hurricane season. It is anticipated that the frequency of tropical cyclones for the North Atlantic Basin during the 2011 hurricane season will be near to above the post-1995 means. Based on the Poisson distribution of tropical cyclone frequencies for the current more active interval 1995-2010, one computes P(r) = 63.7% for the expected frequency of the number of tropical cyclones during the 2011 hurricane season to be 14 plus or minus 3; P(r) = 62.4% for the expected frequency of the number of hurricanes to be 8 plus or minus 2; P(r) = 79.3% for the expected frequency of the number of major hurricanes to be 3 plus or minus 2; and P(r) = 72.5% for the expected frequency of the number of strikes by a hurricane along the coastline of the United States to be 1 plus or minus 1. Because El Nino is not expected to recur during the 2011 hurricane season, clearly, the possibility exists that these seasonal frequencies could easily be exceeded. Also examined are the effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phase and climatic change (global warming) on tropical cyclone seasonal frequencies, the variation of the seasonal centroid (latitude and longitude) location of tropical cyclone onsets, and the variation of the seasonal peak wind speed and lowest pressure for tropical cyclones.

  15. Testing coral-based tropical cyclone reconstructions: An example from Puerto Rico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kilbourne, K. Halimeda; Moyer, Ryan P.; Quinn, Terrence M.; Grottoli, Andrea G.

    2011-01-01

    Complimenting modern records of tropical cyclone activity with longer historical and paleoclimatological records would increase our understanding of natural tropical cyclone variability on decadal to centennial time scales. Tropical cyclones produce large amounts of precipitation with significantly lower δ18O values than normal precipitation, and hence may be geochemically identifiable as negative δ18O anomalies in marine carbonate δ18O records. This study investigates the usefulness of coral skeletal δ18O as a means of reconstructing past tropical cyclone events. Isotopic modeling of rainfall mixing with seawater shows that detecting an isotopic signal from a tropical cyclone in a coral requires a salinity of ~ 33 psu at the time of coral growth, but this threshold is dependent on the isotopic composition of both fresh and saline end-members. A comparison between coral δ18O and historical records of tropical cyclone activity, river discharge, and precipitation from multiple sites in Puerto Rico shows that tropical cyclones are not distinguishable in the coral record from normal rainfall using this approach at these sites.

  16. The impact of the diurnal insolation cycle on the tropical cyclone heat engine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Morgan E.; Perez-Betancourt, Diamilet; Wing, Allison A.

    A hurricane, or tropical cyclone, is understood as a heat engine that moves heat from the warm sea surface to the cold tropopause. The efficiency of this engine depends in part on the strength and duration of solar heating. Over land, peak rainfall associated with individual thunderstorms occurs in the late afternoon. Over ocean, with its markedly higher surface heat capacity, deep convection responds more to radiational cooling than daytime surface heating. However, the role of daily varying solar forcing on the dynamics of tropical cyclones is poorly understood. Recently, Dunion et al. (2014) reported significant, repeating diurnal behavior propagating outward from tropical cyclone centers, using infrared imagery from nine years of North Atlantic tropical cyclones. We study the impact of the diurnal cycle on tropical cyclones using a high resolution 3D numerical model, the System for Atmospheric Modeling (Khairoutdinov and Randall 2003). Simulations are run with and without variable sunlight. We are able to reproduce the observational finding of Dunion et al. (2014), and further identify a diurnally-varying residual circulation in the tropical cyclone at midlevels. The impact of the diurnal cycle on the equilibrium dynamics of tropical cyclones is also discussed.

  17. Landfalling Tropical Cyclones: Forecast Problems and Associated Research Opportunities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Marks, F.D.; Shay, L.K.; Barnes, G.; Black, P.; Demaria, M.; McCaul, B.; Mounari, J.; Montgomery, M.; Powell, M.; Smith, J.D.; Tuleya, B.; Tripoli, G.; Xie, Lingtian; Zehr, R.

    1998-01-01

    The Fifth Prospectus Development Team of the U.S. Weather Research Program was charged to identify and delineate emerging research opportunities relevant to the prediction of local weather, flooding, and coastal ocean currents associated with landfalling U.S. hurricanes specifically, and tropical cyclones in general. Central to this theme are basic and applied research topics, including rapid intensity change, initialization of and parameterization in dynamical models, coupling of atmospheric and oceanic models, quantitative use of satellite information, and mobile observing strategies to acquire observations to evaluate and validate predictive models. To improve the necessary understanding of physical processes and provide the initial conditions for realistic predictions, a focused, comprehensive mobile observing system in a translating storm-coordinate system is required. Given the development of proven instrumentation and improvement of existing systems, three-dimensional atmospheric and oceanic datasets need to be acquired whenever major hurricanes threaten the United States. The spatial context of these focused three-dimensional datasets over the storm scales is provided by satellites, aircraft, expendable probes released from aircraft, and coastal (both fixed and mobile), moored, and drifting surface platforms. To take full advantage of these new observations, techniques need to be developed to objectively analyze these observations, and initialize models aimed at improving prediction of hurricane track and intensity from global-scale to mesoscale dynamical models. Multinested models allow prediction of all scales from the global, which determine long- term hurricane motion to the convective scale, which affect intensity. Development of an integrated analysis and model forecast system optimizing the use of three-dimensional observations and providing the necessary forecast skill on all relevant spatial scales is required. Detailed diagnostic analyses of these

  18. Ocean feedback to tropical cyclones: climatology and processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jullien, Swen; Marchesiello, Patrick; Menkes, Christophe E.; Lefèvre, Jérôme; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Samson, Guillaume; Lengaigne, Matthieu

    2014-11-01

    This study presents the first multidecadal and coupled regional simulation of cyclonic activity in the South Pacific. The long-term integration of state-of the art models provides reliable statistics, missing in usual event studies, of air-sea coupling processes controlling tropical cyclone (TC) intensity. The coupling effect is analyzed through comparison of the coupled model with a companion forced experiment. Cyclogenesis patterns in the coupled model are closer to observations with reduced cyclogenesis in the Coral Sea. This provides novel evidence of air-sea coupling impacting not only intensity but also spatial cyclogenesis distribution. Storm-induced cooling and consequent negative feedback is stronger for regions of shallow mixed layers and thin or absent barrier layers as in the Coral Sea. The statistical effect of oceanic mesoscale eddies on TC intensity (crossing over them 20 % of the time) is also evidenced. Anticyclonic eddies provide an insulating effect against storm-induced upwelling and mixing and appear to reduce sea surface temperature (SST) cooling. Cyclonic eddies on the contrary tend to promote strong cooling, particularly through storm-induced upwelling. Air-sea coupling is shown to have a significant role on the intensification process but the sensitivity of TCs to SST cooling is nonlinear and generally lower than predicted by thermodynamic theories: about 15 rather than over 30 hPa °C-1 and only for strong cooling. The reason is that the cooling effect is not instantaneous but accumulated over time within the TC inner-core. These results thus contradict the classical evaporation-wind feedback process as being essential to intensification and rather emphasize the role of macro-scale dynamics.

  19. Tropical Cyclones Cause CaCO3 Undersaturation of Coral Reef Seawater in a High-CO2 World

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manzello, D.; Enochs, I.; Carlton, R.; Musielewicz, S.; Gledhill, D. K.

    2013-12-01

    Ocean acidification is the global decline in seawater pH and calcium carbonate (CaCO3) saturation state (Ω) due to the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the world's oceans. Acidification impairs CaCO3 shell and skeleton construction by marine organisms. Coral reefs are particularly vulnerable, as they are constructed by the CaCO3 skeletons of corals and other calcifiers. We understand relatively little about how coral reefs will respond to ocean acidification in combination with other disturbances, such as tropical cyclones. Seawater carbonate chemistry data collected from two reefs in the Florida Keys before, during, and after Tropical Storm Isaac provide the most thorough data to-date on how tropical cyclones affect the seawater CO2-system of coral reefs. Tropical Storm Isaac caused both an immediate and prolonged decline in seawater pH. Aragonite saturation state was depressed by 1.0 for a full week after the storm impact. Based on current 'business-as-usual' CO2 emissions scenarios, we show that tropical cyclones with high rainfall and runoff can cause periods of undersaturation (Ω < 1.0) for high-Mg calcite and aragonite mineral phases at acidification levels before the end of this century. Week-long periods of undersaturation occur for 18 mol% high-Mg calcite after storms by the end of the century. In a high-CO2 world, CaCO3 undersaturation of coral reef seawater can occur as a result of even modest tropical cyclones. The expected increase in the strength, frequency, and rainfall of the most severe tropical cyclones with climate change in combination with ocean acidification will negatively impact the structural persistence of coral reefs over this century.

  20. Decadal Trends of Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones (1950-1999)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2001-01-01

    Ten-year moving averages of the seasonal rates for 'named storms,' tropical storms, hurricanes, and major (or intense) hurricanes in the Atlantic basin suggest that the present epoch is one of enhanced activity, marked by seasonal rates typically equal to or above respective long-term median rates. As an example, the 10-year moving average of the seasonal rates for named storms is now higher than for any previous year over the past 50 years, measuring 10.65 in 1994, or 2.65 units higher than its median rate of 8. Also, the 10-year moving average for tropical storms has more than doubled, from 2.15 in 1955 to 4.60 in 1992, with 16 of the past 20 years having a seasonal rate of three or more (the median rate). For hurricanes and major hurricanes, their respective 10-year moving averages turned upward, rising above long-term median rates (5.5 and 2, respectively) in 1992, a response to the abrupt increase in seasonal rates that occurred in 1995. Taken together, the outlook for future hurricane seasons is for all categories of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones to have seasonal rates at levels equal to or above long-term median rates, especially during non-El Nino-related seasons. Only during El Nino-related seasons does it appear likely that seasonal rates might be slightly diminished.

  1. Avoided Impacts in Ensembles of Tropical Cyclone Damage Potential

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Done, J.; Paimazumder, D.; Holland, G. J.; Towler, E.

    2014-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter current levels of Tropical Cyclone (TC) damage, yet the degree of change and its importance relative to changes in exposure and vulnerability are debated. This study isolates the climate drivers of TC damage and develops an approach to translate climate model data directly to a measure of Cyclone Damage Potential (CDP). The actual damage then depends on a given user's impacted exposure and vulnerability. Our approach is motivated by recent work that highlighted the importance of accounting for TC size and TC translation speed in addition to maximum wind speed in driving TC damage. Since coarse resolution climate models are not able to adequately capture many TC characteristics, these key damaging parameters are modeled in terms of large-scale climate variables, to sidestep the need for information on individual TCs and to enable assessments of CDP directly from large-scale climate model data. The CDP is applied to ensembles of future climates generated under a range of anthropogenic forcing scenarios to assess the degree of avoided CDP under lower emission pathways. Users may then translate avoided CDP to avoided losses using relationships between CDP and their specific exposure and vulnerability characteristics.

  2. Influence of Tropical Cyclones Period 1970 TO 2010 IN the Region of Bahia de Banderas, Nayarit-Jalisco Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hernandez, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    This study evaluates the impacts of tropical cyclones (TC) that made landfall in populated areas along the Pacific coast of Mexico, especially in the region of Bahia de Banderas. During the period of 1970-2010 and used a database of international natural disasters to identify impacts. Were more than 13 events during the reporting period, of which 10 are examined more precipitation accumulated and 6 that caused further damage to the affected population in these cases ranged from 5000 to more than 15 000 inhabitants. Strong winds and heavy rainfall in periods of one to three days were associated with property damage and loss of life. The results of the study indicate that excessive accumulations of rain and daily intensity are important factors connected with the occurrence of disasters in densely populated areas. Six of the first 10 Tropical Cyclone associated with major disasters occurred in conditions of El Niño and four neutral conditions. With the analysis of satellite images using GOES-10 in the IDV software maps were obtained in the coastal impacts of Banderas Bay and describes the main features of each meteorological phenomena. In which concludes that no tropical cyclone entered directly to the Banderas Bay region, but its effects were very relevant, taking into account the topography, land use change and the vulnerability of the region. Tropical Cyclones that have affected the region of Bay of Banderas

  3. Evaluation of the productivity decrease risk due to a future increase in tropical cyclone intensity in Japan.

    PubMed

    Esteban, Miguel; Longarte-Galnares, Gorka

    2010-12-01

    A number of scientists have recently conducted research that shows that tropical cyclone intensity is likely to increase in the future. This would result in an increase in the damage along with a decrease in economic productivity due to precautionary cessation of the economic activity of the affected areas during the passage of the cyclone. The economic effect of this stop in economic activity is a phenomenon that has not received much attention in the past, and the cumulative effect that it can have on the Japanese economy over the next 75 years has never been evaluated. The starting point for the evaluation of the economic risks is the change in the patterns of tropical cyclone intensity suggested by Knutson and Tuleya. The results obtained show how a significant decrease in the overall productivity of the country could be expected, which could lower GDP by between 6% and 13% by 2085.

  4. Rapid intensification and the bimodal distribution of tropical cyclone intensity

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K.; Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.

    2016-01-01

    The severity of a tropical cyclone (TC) is often summarized by its lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), and the climatological LMI distribution is a fundamental feature of the climate system. The distinctive bimodality of the LMI distribution means that major storms (LMI >96 kt) are not very rare compared with less intense storms. Rapid intensification (RI) is the dramatic strengthening of a TC in a short time, and is notoriously difficult to forecast or simulate. Here we show that the bimodality of the LMI distribution reflects two types of storms: those that undergo RI during their lifetime (RI storms) and those that do not (non-RI storms). The vast majority (79%) of major storms are RI storms. Few non-RI storms (6%) become major storms. While the importance of RI has been recognized in weather forecasting, our results demonstrate that RI also plays a crucial role in the TC climatology. PMID:26838056

  5. Tropical cyclone intensification trends during satellite era (1986-2010)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kishtawal, C. M.; Jaiswal, Neeru; Singh, Randhir; Niyogi, D.

    2012-05-01

    Using International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS, version v03r03) analysis during satellite era (1986-2010) we determined the trends of intensification of tropical cyclones (TC) over all the global basins, except the North Indian Ocean. Over all the basins, the rate of TC intensification from 64 kt to first peak of intensity maxima (global average value = 104 kt) was found to be positive. The above trends were significant for 4 out of 5 basins, except the North West Pacific. The trends indicate that the TCs now intensify from 64 kt to 104 kt nearly 9 hours earlier than they did 25 years back. The maximum reduction in intensification time is noticed over the North Atlantic Ocean where the average time needed for TC to intensify from 64 kt to 112 kt has reduced by nearly 20 hours during the past 25-year period.

  6. Differential leaflet mortality may influence biogeochemical cycling following tropical cyclones.

    PubMed

    Marler, Thomas E; Ferreras, Ulysses

    2014-01-01

    Intensity of tropical cyclones is expected to increase in the coming century, and an improved understanding of their influence on biogeochemical cycles would benefit ecologists and conservationists. We studied the November 2013 Typhoon Haiyan damage to observe that numerous examples of partial leaf necrosis on intact leaves of trees in the Cycadaceae and Arecaceae families resulted, leaving behind a copious amount of arboreal dead leaf material attached to live leaves. The decay process of this form of arboreal litter has not been previously studied. When compared with decay of ground litter or detached litter suspended in the canopy, we predict the decay process of this form of arboreal litter will include increased photooxidation, leaching, and comminution by detritivorous insects and mites; but decreased catabolism of organic molecules by saprophytic organisms.

  7. Statistical Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin, 1945-2010

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2012-01-01

    Examined are statistical aspects of the 715 tropical cyclones that formed in the North Atlantic basin during the interval 1945-2010. These 715 tropical cyclones include 306 storms that attained only tropical storm strength, 409 hurricanes, 179 major or intense hurricanes, and 108 storms that struck the US coastline as hurricanes. Comparisons made using 10-year moving average (10-yma) values between tropical cyclone parametric values and surface air and ENSO-related parametric values indicate strong correlations to exist, in particular, against the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland) surface air temperature, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index, the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) index, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, in addition to the Oceanic Ni o index (ONI) and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) indices. Also examined are the decadal variations of the tropical cyclone parametric values and a look ahead towards the 2012 hurricane season and beyond.

  8. Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Over the Past 30 Years: A Global and Dynamic Perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Liguang; Wang, Bin; Braun, Scott A.

    2006-01-01

    The hurricane season of 2005 was the busiest on record and Hurricane Katrina (2005) is believed to be the costliest hurricane in U. S. history. There are growing concerns regarding whether this increased tropical cyclone activity is a result of global warming, as suggested by Emanuel(2005) and Webster et al. (2005), or just a natural oscillation (Goldenberg et al. 2001). This study examines the changes in tropical cyclone intensity to see what were really responsible for the changes in tropical cyclone activity over the past 30 years. Since the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) warming also leads to the response of atmospheric circulation, which is not solely determined by the local SST warming, this study suggests that it is better to take the tropical cyclone activities in the North Atlantic (NA), western North Pacific (WNP) and eastern North Pacific (ENP) basins as a whole when searching for the influence of the global-scale SST warming on tropical cyclone intensity. Over the past 30 years, as the tropical SST increased by about 0.5 C, the linear trends indicate 6%, 16% and 15% increases in the overall average intensity and lifetime and the annual frequency. Our analysis shows that the increased annual destructiveness of tropical cyclones reported by Emanuel(2005) resulted mainly from the increases in the average lifetime and annual frequency in the NA basin and from the increases in the average intensity and lifetime in the WNP basin, while the annual destructiveness in the ENP basin generally decreased over the past 30 years. The changes in the proportion of intense tropical cyclones reported by Webster et a1 (2005) were due mainly to the fact that increasing tropical cyclones took the tracks that favor for the development of intense tropical cyclones in the NA and WNP basins over the past 30 years. The dynamic influence associated with the tropical SST warming can lead to the impact of global warming on tropical cyclone intensity that may be very

  9. Characterizing multi-hazard extreme distributions of coastal flooding induced by tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Díez-Sierra, Javier; Toimil, Alexandra; del Jesus, Manuel; Méndez, Fernando; Medina, Raúl

    2015-04-01

    Coastal areas, which are among the most populated regions on Earth, are the interface between continental land and the ocean. As a consequence of their location, they are subject to complex flooding dynamics, arising from the interaction between coastal and continental dynamics. This complexity is translated to the characterization of extreme distributions and the effects induced by climate change in the distribution of extreme events. In this work, we develop a methodology that serves to characterize the extreme distribution of flooding in a coastal environment. We focus in the dynamics induced by tropical cyclones that are both marine (storm surge and wave run-up) and continental (precipitation and runoff). Our approach makes uses of historical cyclones that have affected the study area in the past. This ensemble is augmented by synthetically generated cyclones in order to better cover the range of possible tracks. A maximum dissimilarity algorithm is used on the augmented database to select a reduced subset of tracks best representing the variability on the data (Camus et al. 2014). This subset is used to carry out a dynamical downscaling. Numerical simulations are carried out for these subset of tropical cyclones to derive the spatial fields of wind (by means of the Hydromet-Rankine Vortex model) and rainfall (using R-Clipper model) induced by the cyclone. SWAN model is used to derive the wave fields (Díaz et al. 2014), H2D to derive the storm surge fields and a CUENCAS-like model (IH-Mole) to derive runoff fields. All the flood-inducing dynamics are the input to the RFSM-EDA model that computes flood depths for the study area. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate synthetic time series of tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclone climate is related to the spatial patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) fields using a non-linear clustering technique, which are used in turn as the main driver of a Monte Carlo simulation. Flood time series are derived from

  10. North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity in Relation to Temperature and Decadal- Length Oscillation Patterns

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2009-01-01

    Yearly frequencies of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones, their locations of origin, peak wind speeds, average peak wind speeds, lowest pressures, and average lowest pressures for the interval 1950-2008 are examined. The effects of El Nino and La Nina on the tropical cyclone parametric values are investigated. Yearly and 10-year moving average (10-yma) values of tropical cyclone parameters are compared against those of temperature and decadal-length oscillation, employing both linear and bi-variate analysis, and first differences in the 10-yma are determined. Discussion of the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season, updating earlier results, is given.

  11. The probability of tropical cyclone landfalls in Western North Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonazzi, A.; Bellone, E.; Khare, S.

    2012-04-01

    The Western North Pacific (WNP) is the most active basin in terms of tropical cyclone and typhoon occurrences. The densely populated countries that form the western boundary of WNP basin -- e.g. China, Japan and the Philippines -- are exposed to extreme wind gusts, storm surge and fresh water flooding eventually triggered by Tropical Cyclones (TC) events. Event-based catastrophe models (hereafter cat models) are extensively used by the insurance industry to manage their exposure against low-frequency/high-consequence events such as natural catastrophes. Cat models provide their users with a realistic set of stochastic events that expands the scope of a historical catalogue. Confidence in a cat model ability to extrapolate peril and loss statistics beyond the period covered by observational data requires good agreement between stochastic and historical peril characteristics at shorter return periods. In WNP risk management practitioners are faced with highly uncertain data to base their decisions. Albeit 4 national agencies maintain best track catalogues, data are generally based on satellite imageries with very limited central pressure (CP) and maximum velocity (VMAX) measurements -- regular flight reconnaissance missions stopped in 1987. As a result differences up to 20 knots are found in estimates of VMAX from different agencies as documented in experiment IOP-10 during Typhoon Megi in 2010. In this work we present a comprehensive analysis of CP and VMAX probability distributions at landfall across the WNP basin along a set of 150 gates (100 km coast segments) based on best track catalogues from Japan Meteorological Agency, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, China Meteorological Agency and Hong Meteorological Agency. Landfall distributions are then used to calibrate a random-walk statistical track model. A long simulation of 100,000 years of statistical TC tracks will ultimately constitute the central building block of a basin-wide stochastic catalogue of synthetic TC

  12. Tropical cyclone cooling combats region-wide coral bleaching.

    PubMed

    Carrigan, Adam D; Puotinen, Marji

    2014-05-01

    Coral bleaching has become more frequent and widespread as a result of rising sea surface temperature (SST). During a regional scale SST anomaly, reef exposure to thermal stress is patchy in part due to physical factors that reduce SST to provide thermal refuge. Tropical cyclones (TCs - hurricanes, typhoons) can induce temperature drops at spatial scales comparable to that of the SST anomaly itself. Such cyclone cooling can mitigate bleaching across broad areas when well-timed and appropriately located, yet the spatial and temporal prevalence of this phenomenon has not been quantified. Here, satellite SST and historical TC data are used to reconstruct cool wakes (n=46) across the Caribbean during two active TC seasons (2005 and 2010) where high thermal stress was widespread. Upon comparison of these datasets with thermal stress data from Coral Reef Watch and published accounts of bleaching, it is evident that TC cooling reduced thermal stress at a region-wide scale. The results show that during a mass bleaching event, TC cooling reduced thermal stress below critical levels to potentially mitigate bleaching at some reefs, and interrupted natural warming cycles to slow the build-up of thermal stress at others. Furthermore, reconstructed TC wave damage zones suggest that it was rare for more reef area to be damaged by waves than was cooled (only 12% of TCs). Extending the time series back to 1985 (n = 314), we estimate that for the recent period of enhanced TC activity (1995-2010), the annual probability that cooling and thermal stress co-occur is as high as 31% at some reefs. Quantifying such probabilities across the other tropical regions where both coral reefs and TCs exist is vital for improving our understanding of how reef exposure to rising SSTs may vary, and contributes to a basis for targeting reef conservation.

  13. The Impact of Dry Saharan Air on Tropical Cyclone Intensification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Braun, Scott A.

    2012-01-01

    The controversial role of the dry Saharan Air Layer (SAL) on tropical storm intensification in the Atlantic will be addressed. The SAL has been argued in previous studies to have potential positive influences on storm development, but most recent studies have argued for a strong suppressing influence on storm intensification as a result of dry air, high stability, increased vertical wind shear, and microphysical impacts of dust. Here, we focus on observations of Hurricane Helene (2006), which occurred during the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Activities (NAMMA) experiment. Satellite and airborne observations, combined with global meteorological analyses depict the initial environment of Helene as being dominated by the SAL, although with minimal evidence that the SAL air actually penetrated to the core of the disturbance. Over the next several days, the SAL air quickly moved westward and was gradually replaced by a very dry, dust-free layer associated with subsidence. Despite the wrapping of this very dry air around the storm, Helene intensified steadily to a Category 3 hurricane suggesting that the dry air was unable to significantly slow storm intensification. Several uncertainties remain about the role of the SAL in Helene (and in tropical cyclones in general). To better address these uncertainties, NASA will be conducting a three year airborne campaign called the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3). The HS3 objectives are: To obtain critical measurements in the hurricane environment in order to identify the role of key factors such as large-scale wind systems (troughs, jet streams), Saharan air masses, African Easterly Waves and their embedded critical layers (that help to isolate tropical disturbances from hostile environments). To observe and understand the three-dimensional mesoscale and convective-scale internal structures of tropical disturbances and cyclones and their role in intensity change. The mission objectives will be achieved using

  14. Developing an enhanced tropical cyclone data portal for the Southern Hemisphere and the Western Pacific Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuleshov, Yuriy; de Wit, Roald; Atalifo, Terry; Prakash, Bipendra; Waqaicelua, Alipate; Kunitsugu, Masashi; Caroff, Philippe; Chane-Ming, Fabrice

    2013-04-01

    Tropical cyclones are the most extreme weather phenomena which severely impact coastal communities and island nations. There is an ongoing research (i) on accurate analysis of observed trends in tropical cyclone occurrences, and (ii) how tropical cyclone frequency and intensity may change in the future as a result of climate change. Reliable historical records of cyclone activity are vital for this research. The Pacific Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) program is dedicated to help Pacific Island countries and Timor Leste gain a better understanding of how climate change will impact their regions. One of the key PACCSAP projects is focused on developing a tropical cyclone archive, climatology and seasonal prediction for the regions. As part of the project, historical tropical cyclone best track data have been examined and prepared to be subsequently displayed through the enhanced tropical cyclone data portal for the Southern Hemisphere and the Western Pacific Ocean. Data from the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) Nadi, Fiji and Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWCs) in Brisbane, Darwin and Wellington for 1969-1970 to 2010-2011 tropical cyclone seasons have been carefully examined. Errors and inconsistencies which have been found during the quality control procedure have been corrected. To produce a consolidated data set for the South Pacific Ocean, best track data from these four centres have been used. Specifically, for 1969-1970 to 1994-1995 tropical cyclone seasons, data from TCWCs in Brisbane, Darwin and Wellington have been used. In 1995, RSMC Nadi, Fiji has been established with responsibilities for issuing tropical cyclone warnings and preparing best track data for the area south of the equator to 25°S, 160°E to 120°W. Consequently, data from RSMC Nadi have been used as a primary source for this area, starting from the 1995-1996 tropical cyclone season. These data have been combined with the data from

  15. Landfall tropical cyclone rainstorms on the north slope of the Dabie Mountains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Z. Y.; Wang, J. Y.; Lee, C.

    2016-08-01

    The formation and development mechanism of landfall cyclone rainstorms that occur on the north slope of the Dabie Mountains were investigated by the determination of typical occurrences. Interaction between the tropical cyclone and the westerly trough was characterized by the favorable circulation backgrounds of landfall tropical cyclone rainstorms on the north slope of the Dabie Mountains. A conveyor belt was created between the easterly jet flow of the tropical cyclone and the subtropical high pressure of the western equatorial Pacific Ocean and the southerly jet flow of the westerly trough front, creating a huge amount of energy and vapor from the landfall tropical cyclone in the rainstorm area and destabilizing the stratification. These conditions were advantageous to the frontogenesis of a warm front and the development of Mesoscale convective systems (MCS) in the westerly cold air that met the inverted trough located at the northern portion of the tropical cyclone. The existence and development of the mesoscale front area in the ground provide a trigger mechanism for the rainstorm. The MCS occurred and developed in the equivalent potential temperature theta se (θse) frontal zone, which is located between the low pressure area of the typhoon and the cold air, which is located at the rear of the westerly trough. The terrain block slowed or stopped the motion of the low pressure system formed by the landfall tropical cyclone, which was conducive to the enhancement of the rainstorm.

  16. An Evaluation of QuikSCAT data over Tropical Cyclones as Determined in an Operational Environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hawkins, J. D.; Edson, R. T.

    2001-12-01

    QuikSCAT data over all global tropical cyclones were examined during the past 3 1/2 years in conjunction with the development of a user¡_s guide to the forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The active microwave scatterometer has greatly enhanced the forecaster's ability to evaluate surface winds over the data poor regions of the tropical oceans. The QuikSCAT scatterometer¡_s unique ability to provide both wind speed and direction on a nearly bi-daily basis has greatly increased the forecaster¡_s near real-time knowledge of tropical cyclone genesis, intensification potential, outer wind structure, and a ¡rminimum estimate¡_ for a tropical cyclone¡_s maximum sustained winds. Scatterometer data were compared with data available to the forecasters in a near real-time environment including ship, land and buoy reports. In addition, comparisons were also made with aircraft measurements (for Atlantic and East Pacific systems), numerical weather model wind fields, and various remote sensing techniques. Wind speeds were found to be extremely useful, especially for the radius of gale force winds. However, in rain-contaminated areas, light winds were often greatly overestimated while in heavy winds, wind speeds were often quite reasonable if not slightly underestimated. The largest issues are still focused on the correct wind direction selection. In these cases, rain-flagged wind vector cells greatly affected the results from the direction ambiguity selection procedure. The ambiguity selection algorithm often had difficulties resolving a circulation center when large areas of the tropical cyclone¡_s center were flagged. Often a block of winds would occur perpendicular to the swath irregardless of the circulation¡_s position. These winds caused considerable confusion for the operational forecasters. However, it was determined that in many cases, an accurate center position could still be obtained by using methods to incorporate the more

  17. Analysis of the risk of tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea with ENSEMBLES climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaertner, M. A.; Sánchez, E.; Domínguez, M.; Gil, V.; Romera, R.; Gallardo, C.

    2012-04-01

    A study by Gaertner et al. (2007) raised the possibility of tropical cyclones developing over the Mediterranean Sea under future climate change conditions. The analysis of scenario data from PRUDENCE European project for the last decades of 21st century showed a certain risk of tropical cyclone development, but with large differences among the RCMs of the ensemble. A new analysis of this risk is performed with the more recent simulations of the European project ENSEMBLES. The multi-model ensemble of ENSEMBLES project is larger and allows to explore cyclone changes for the first decades of the present century. The effect of higher horizontal resolution and the use of several different GCMs for the boundary conditions is also analysed. The new results show again a cyclone intensity increase in future decades, associated to tropical characteristics in the most intense cyclones simulated by some models, but the differences among simulations remain large.

  18. Climate Forcing of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity over the last 6000 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donnelly, J. P.; Woodruff, J. D.; Scileppi, E.; Lane, P.

    2006-12-01

    Reconstructions of extreme overwash events in backbarrier lagoons and wetlands from the Caribbean to the northeastern United States show similar patterns of event occurrence. Comparisons with instrumental and historical records indicate that most of these overwash layers were likely deposited by landfalling tropical cyclones. Over the last 6000 years intense tropical cyclones have deposited coarse grained laminae in a coastal lagoon on Vieques, Puerto Rico. Intervals with more frequent intense tropical cyclone strikes occurred at 5600-4200 years ago, 2500-1000 years ago, and 250 years ago to present. Similarly records from backbarrier wetlands in the New York/New Jersey Bight provide evidence of more frequent overwash in the last 300 years and 2200 to 900 years ago. An earlier active interval in New York is also evident and dates to sometime before 2700 years ago. Other shorter records from the northeastern United States also provide evidence of more frequent storm-induced deposition over the last few hundred years following a relative lull in overwash and presumably tropical cyclone landfalls. This increase in tropical cyclone landfalls occurs during the later half of the Little Ice Age (LIA) when sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropics were 2-3°C cooler than modern. Over the last several millennia a coherent pattern of climate change appears to have modulated intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic. The evolution of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability over the late Holocene likely played an important role in controlling the frequency of intense tropical cyclones in the entire North Atlantic Basin, with intervals of fewer strong El Niño events being more favorable to intense tropical cyclone activity. In addition, variations in the West African monsoon, possibly tied to ENSO, may be an important control on the frequency of North Atlantic intense tropical cyclones. With increases in intense convective storms over tropical

  19. Impact of tropical cyclones on aerosol properties over urban region of Hyderabad, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kharol, Shailesh Kumar; Badarinath, K. V. S.; Rani Sharma, Anu; Krishna Prasad, V.; Kaskaoutis, Dimitrios G.; Nastos, Panagiotis T.; Kambezidis, Harry D.

    2010-05-01

    Fierce tropical cyclones occur in India during the pre-monsoon (spring), early monsoon (early summer), or post-monsoon (fall) periods. Originating in both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, tropical cyclones often attain velocities of more than 100 kmh-1 and are notorious for causing intense rain and tidal waves as they cross the Indian coast. Cyclones are associated with heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and sometimes, storm surges. In the present study, we have analyzed the changes in aerosol properties at Hyderabad, India, associated with very severe cyclonic storm "Mala" occurred during the last week of April, 2006 over the Central-Eastern part of the Bay of Bengal centered near Lat. 16.0 N and Long. 93.0 E, at 18:00 UTC on 28th April 2006, about 500 Km North of Portblair. This tropical cyclone, packing winds of 240 km/h, slammed into Myanmar on 28th April and 29th April destroying hundreds of houses, two beach resorts and at least five factories as per the reports of the Kyemon daily paper and the International Federation of the Red Cross. Cyclone "Mala" is described as the most severe cyclone in the Bay of Bengal after the 1999 Orissa Super Cyclone. The measurements for the case study were carried out in the premises of the National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC) campus at Balanagar (17o.28' N and 78o.26' E) located within the Hyderabad urban center during cyclone period. Synchronous and continuous observations of columnar Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) were carried out using a handheld multi-channel sun-photometer (Microtops-II, Solar Light Co., USA) at six wavelength bands centered around 380, 440, 500, 675, 870 and 1020 nm. Continuous measurements of particulate matter (PM) grain-size distribution were performed with the GRIMM aerosol spectrometer, model 1-108. The cyclone "Mala" over the Bay of Bengal occurred during 26-29 April, 2006, struck the coast of Myanmar with winds of 115 mph (185 kmh-1), causing severe damage and loss of human life on 29 April, 2006

  20. The extratropical transition of Atlantic tropical cyclones: Climatology, lifecycle definition, and a case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hart, Robert Edward

    This thesis examines the conversion of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TC) into extratropical cyclones (extratropical transition; ET) and presents arguments for the climatology, lifecycle definition, and the physical processes behind ET. Extratropical transition is the conversion of a symmetric, vertically stacked, warm-core tropical cyclone with a maximum intensity in the lower troposphere into an asymmetric, cold-core and tilted extratropical cyclone with a maximum intensity in the upper troposphere. This transition usually occurs with movement into the middle latitudes, and is partially a result of the increased shear, baroclinicity and synoptic-scale disturbances at those latitudes. After an introduction to the topic in Chapter 1, a comprehensive climatology of extratropically transitioning tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin is presented in Chapter 2. Storm tracks and intensities over a period from 1899 through 1996 are examined, with a focus on the more reliable post-1950 era database. Extratropically transitioning tropical cyclones represent 50% of landfalling tropical cyclones on the east coasts of the United States and Canada, and the west coast of Europe, combined. Atlantic transition occurs from 24°N through 55°N, with a much higher frequency between the latitudes of 35°N to 45°N. Transition occurs at lower latitudes at the beginning and end of the season, and at higher latitudes during the season peak (August-September). The structural evolution of the 61 tropical cyclones from 1979-1993 in Chapter 2 were further examined using 1.125° ECMWF reanalyses in Chapter 3. A reliable indicator for the start of extratropical transition was the mean 850-600hPa thickness difference between the semicircles right and left of storm motion. The fourth chapter examines in detail a case study of extratropical transition through an application of the diagnostics developed in the first two chapters as well as conventional measures of tropical and extratropical

  1. Effect of tropical cyclones on the tropical tropopause parameters observed using COSMIC GPS RO data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babu, S. Ravindra; Venkat Ratnam, M.; Basha, G.; Krishnamurthy, B. V.; Venkateswararao, B.

    2015-09-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are deep convective synoptic-scale systems that play an important role in modifying the thermal structure, tropical tropopause parameters and hence also modify stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) processes. In the present study, high vertical resolution and high accuracy measurements from COSMIC Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) measurements are used to investigate and quantify the effect of tropical cyclones that occurred over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea in the last decade on the tropical tropopause parameters. The tropopause parameters include cold-point tropopause altitude (CPH) and temperature (CPT), lapse-rate tropopause altitude (LRH) and temperature (LRT) and the thickness of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL), that is defined as the layer between convective outflow level (COH) and CPH, obtained from GPS RO data. From all the TC events, we generate the mean cyclone-centred composite structure for the tropopause parameters and removed it from the climatological mean obtained from averaging the GPS RO data from 2002 to 2013. Since the TCs include eye, eye walls and deep convective bands, we obtained the tropopause parameters based on radial distance from the cyclone eye. In general, decrease in the CPH in the eye is noticed as expected. However, as the distance from the cyclone eye increases by 300, 400, and 500 km, an enhancement in CPH (CPT) and LRH (LRT) is observed. Lowering of CPH (0.6 km) and LRH (0.4 km) values with coldest CPT and LRT (2-3 K) within a 500 km radius of the TC centre is noticed. Higher (2 km) COH leading to the lowering of TTL thickness (2-3 km) is clearly observed. There are multiple tropopause structures in the profiles of temperature obtained within 100 km from the centre of the TC. These changes in the tropopause parameters are expected to influence the water vapour transport from the troposphere to the lower stratosphere, and ozone from the lower stratosphere to the upper

  2. Impacts of Different Grades of Tropical Cyclones on Infectious Diarrhea in Guangdong, 2005-2011

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Ying; Wang, Wei; Wang, Xin; Jiang, Baofa; Ma, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Objective Guangdong province is one of the most vulnerable provinces to tropical cyclones in China. Most prior studies concentrated on the relationship between tropical cyclones and injuries and mortality. This study aimed to explore the impacts of different grades of tropical cyclones on infectious diarrhea incidence in Guangdong province, from 2005 to 2011. Methods Mann-Whitney U test was firstly used to examine if infectious diarrhea were sensitive to tropical cyclone. Then unidirectional 1:1 case-crossover design was performed to quantitatively evaluate the relationship between daily number of infectious diarrhea and tropical cyclone from 2005 to 2011 in Guangdong, China. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to eliminate multicollinearity. Multivariate logistic regression model was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and the 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results There were no significant relationships between tropical cyclone and bacillary dysentery, amebic dysentery, typhoid, and paratyphoid cases. Infectious diarrhea other than cholera, dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid significantly increased after tropical cyclones. The strongest effect were shown on lag 1 day (HRs = 1.95, 95%CI = 1.22, 3.12) and no lagged effect was detected for tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm and typhoon, with the largest HRs (95%CI) of 2.16 (95%CI = 1.69, 2.76), 2.43 (95%CI = 1.65, 3.58) and 2.21 (95%CI = 1.65, 2.69), respectively. Among children below 5 years old, the impacts of all grades of tropical cyclones were strongest at lag 0 day. And HRs were 2.67 (95%CI = 1.10, 6.48), 2.49 (95%CI = 1.80, 3.44), 4.89 (95%CI = 2.37, 7.37) and 3.18 (95%CI = 2.10, 4.81), respectively. Conclusion All grades of tropical cyclones could increase risk of other infectious diarrhea. Severe tropical storm has the strongest influence on other infectious diarrhea. The impacts of tropical cyclones on children under 5 years old were higher than total population

  3. Impact Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Hud Hud on Coastal Region of Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vivek, G.; Srinivasa Kumar, T.

    2015-10-01

    Tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm system characterized by a low pressure center, strong winds, and a spiral arrangements of thunderstorms that produce heavy rain. Tropical cyclones typically form over large bodies of relatively warm water. On 6th October 2014 Hud Hud originates from a low pressure system that formed under the influence of an upper air cyclonic circulation in the Andaman Sea. On 9th October 2014 the IMD department classified the Hud Hud as a very severe cyclonic storm on IMD scale and category 4 on Staffir-Simpson scale. The cyclone hit the coast of Visakhapatnam on 12th October 2014 at wind speed of 175 km/h which caused extensive damage to the city and the neighbouring districts. The damage caused by Cyclone Hud Hud not only changed the landscape of the port city, but also made it the first city in the country to be directly hit by a cyclone since 1891 as per the records of the IMD. The remote sensing technique used here is NDVI. NDVI will separate vegetation and non-vegetation part. The NDVI will be classified in ERDAS and calculated the area using ARCGIS. The satellite data of 4th October 2014 show s before the cyclone, 14th October 2014 shows after the cyclone and 7th December 2014 after two month of cyclone.

  4. Change of tropical cyclone heat potential in response to global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Ran; Chen, Changlin; Wang, Guihua

    2016-04-01

    Tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) in the ocean can affect tropical cyclone intensity and intensification. In this paper, TCHP change under global warming is presented based on 35 models from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5). As the upper ocean warms up, the TCHP of the global ocean is projected to increase by 140.6% in the 21st century under the RCP4.5 (+4.5 W m-2 Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario. The increase is particularly significant in the western Pacific, northwestern Indian and western tropical Atlantic oceans. The increase of TCHP results from the ocean temperature warming above the depth of the 26°C isotherm (D26), the deepening of D26, and the horizontal area expansion of SST above 26°C. Their contributions are 69.4%, 22.5% and 8.1%, respectively. Further, a suite of numerical experiments with an Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) is conducted to investigate the relative importance of wind stress and buoyancy forcing to the TCHP change under global warming. Results show that sea surface warming is the dominant forcing for the TCHP change, while wind stress and sea surface salinity change are secondary.

  5. NASA GPM Measures Tropical Cyclone 05S (Bohale), Dec. 9 2015

    NASA Video Gallery

    On Dec. 9, 2015, NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission measured thunderstorm tops reaching heights on Tropical Cyclone 05S (Bohale) above 16.6 km (10.3 miles) near the center of the...

  6. A quantitative examination of lightning as a predictor of peak winds in tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whittaker, Ian C.; Douma, Emma; Rodger, Craig J.; Marshall, Timothy J. C. H.

    2015-05-01

    We use the World Wide Lightning Location Network to investigate lightning strike variations in 8 years of categories 4 and 5 tropical cyclones. A cross-correlation analysis is performed between the lightning and maximum sustained wind variations, giving lag and lead times related to the peak linear correlation for each tropical cyclone. A previous study of 58 cyclones by Price et al. (2009) is reexamined using the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship database for the maximum sustained wind speeds of each tropical cyclone showing a moderate to strong correlation between lightning and wind variations. An 8 year data set of 144 tropical cyclones are analyzed in the same way, with a 10° square window, giving similar results to the smaller data set. Using a radial lightning collection window of < 500 km, we confirm the general results of previous studies that lightning can be used on a ˜1 day timescale to predict the evolution of the winds in tropical cyclones. Investigation of different lightning collection window sizes indicates that the lightning lead times are highly dependent upon the window size. Smaller collection windows have modal lightning lead times of ˜2.75 and 0 days, indicating that the lightning location inside the cyclone is as important as the total lightning variation. We have also performed a fixed time lag correlation which shows that preexisting knowledge of what time lag to use is needed in order to use this approach as a predictive tool.

  7. Tropical cyclone/upper-atmospheric interaction as inferred from satellite total ozone observations

    SciTech Connect

    Rodgers, E.B.

    1992-01-01

    The Nimbus-7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) was used to map the distribution of total ozone within and surrounding western North Atlantic and North Pacific tropical cyclones that occurred from 1979-1982. It was found from numerical model simulations and diagnostics and satellite observations that the distribution of total ozone within the subtropical upper-tropospheric waves during the tropical cyclone season corresponded well with the variation of thermodynamic parameters (i.e., temperature, thickness, geopotential heights) near the tropopause and the regions of strong stratospheric and tropospheric exchange processes. These results are similar to previous middle latitudinal observations. It was also found that the three-dimensional transport processes associated with both the western North Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclone's outflow jet induced secondary circulation and the strong vertical motions associated with active deep convective and eye regions helped to modify the total ozone distribution that is usually observed within these subtropical upper-tropospheric waves. The tropical cyclone induced modifications of the total ozone in the upper-tropospheric waves became greater as the tropical cyclone became more intense and the three-dimensional transpost processes associated with the outflow jet, convection and eye strengthened. The strong relationship between total ozone distribution and the variation of the tropopause topography, made it possible to use TOMS to monitor the propagation of the subtropical upper-tropospheric waves and the mutual adjustment between tropical cyclones and their upper-tropospheric and lower-stratospheric environment when these tropical cyclones and the upper-tropospheric waves interacted. These total ozone patterns during tropical cyclone and upper-tropospheric wave interaction reflected the three-dimensional upper-tropospheric transport processes that were conducive for storm intensification, weakening, or recurvature.

  8. Multi-model GCM ensemble simulations of idealized tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reed, K. A.; Jablonowski, C.; Ullrich, P. A.; Kent, J.; Lauritzen, P. H.; Taylor, M.; Nair, R.

    2013-12-01

    As General Circulation Models (GCMs) are now capable of running operationally at higher horizontal resolutions than ever before, such models have become a tool of choice for the evaluation of tropical cyclones in current and future climate conditions. GCM horizontal resolutions in the range between 10-50 km are now computationally achievable for seasonal or multi-year simulations and there is growing confidence that high-resolution global models provide reliable representations of many characteristics of tropical storms. However, model design choices are an important source of uncertainty. This is widely documented for physical parameterization suites, but it is less recognized for the dynamical component of models and the physics-dynamics coupling. The study offers a first look into these structural uncertainties. This study focuses on dynamical core model intercomparisons. In particular, it looks at the results of the Dynamical Core Model Intercomparison Project (DCMIP) that took place at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in August 2012. The analysis is focused on the evaluation of an idealized tropical storm and uncertainties triggered by the choice of model dynamical core formulation in various global models. These models include the four dynamical cores available in NCAR's Community Atmosphere Model (Finite-Volume (FV), Spectral-Element (SE) and the Eulerian and semi-Lagrangian spectral transform dynamical cores), the NOAA model FIM, the model ICON (Max-Planck Institute and German Weather Service), GFDL's FV3 model on the cubed-sphere grid, ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and the model PUMA from the University of Hamburg.

  9. The impacts of altered tropical cyclone activity on climate mitigation strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fisk, J. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; LePage, Y.; Patel, P.; Chini, L. P.; Thomson, A. M.; Clarke, L.; Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Chambers, J. Q.; Negron Juarez, R. I.

    2012-12-01

    There is growing evidence that anthropogenic climate change may alter patterns of tropical cyclone frequency, intensity and spatial distribution, which in turn will alter the carbon balance of terrestrial systems in the large regions impacted by these storms. Recent studies project up to a doubling of major storms (Saffir-Simpson Scale 3-5) over the next century. Single large storms have been shown to be capable of causing committed carbon emissions equivalent to the annual U.S. carbon sink. These changes have the potential to affect climate mitigation strategies, most of which rely on maintaining or enhancing the terrestrial carbon sink to restrain the accumulation of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Altered patterns of disturbances and the resulting changes to the carbon balance of terrestrial systems could impact the magnitude of emissions to mitigate, the economic value of ecosystem carbon storage, and thus future land-use patterns, food prices and energy technology. Here we investigate the potential consequences of altered tropical cyclone activity on climate mitigation strategies using a fully integrated model (iED) that links advanced ecological and socio-economic models. The model combines the regional integrated assessment algorithms of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), with the climate- sensitive ecosystem and carbon modeling in the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, and the land-use mapping algorithms of the Global Land-use Model (GLM). We explore a range of scenarios of altered future tropical cyclone frequency, intensity and spatial pattern, the resulting effects on the terrestrial carbon balance, and the coupled effects on the food and energy sector under a range of future climate mitigation goals.

  10. Using Mixture Regression to Understand and Model Tropical Cyclone Intensification in Relation to the Environment and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yonekura, E.; Lin, N.; Wang, Y.; Fan, J.

    2014-12-01

    Representing the relationship between tropical cyclone intensity and the surrounding environment is key to projecting the way tropical cyclones change with the climate. However, capturing the complex relationship between tropical cyclone intensification, the surrounding environment, and storm characteristics may not be possible with simple linear regression models like SHIPS, especially for short forecast periods in risk models. Here, we move beyond simple linear modeling and apply methods that perform variable selection, determine if the data is a heterogeneous "mixture" of multiple features, and fit linear or nonlinear functions of predictors for a 6-hour forecast window. We also incorporate a new predictor, the Ventilation Index, which represents the surrounding environmental conditions in a way that is known to affect tropical cyclone intensity according to hurricane physics. The data used to construct the models comes from the IBTrACS WMO archive for TC-specific data and ERSST v3b and the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis for environmental variables from 1970-2010 in the North Atlantic. The two observed measures of intensity, the maximum sustained wind speed and minimum central pressure, are modeled jointly. First, we find that variable selection in both linear and nonlinear models does not significantly reduce the number of environmental predictors needed or improve the model R-squared. Second, mixture regression is applied to establish data groupings and their associated predictors. There is an increase in R-squared by 0.10 compared to the linear regression model that uses all possible variables as predictors. The number of environmental predictors decreases from 8 to 4 for wind intensification and to 2 for pressure intensification. When we further restrict the predictor pool to use only Ventilation Index to represent the environment, mixture modeling shows a 0.10 increase in R-squared. Then, allowing nonlinear relationships with predictors in a mixture model with

  11. An Exploration of Tropical Cyclone Simulations in NCAR's Community Atmosphere Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reed, Kevin A.

    Using General Circulation Models (GCMs) for tropical cyclone studies is challenging due to the relatively small size of the storms, the intense convection and a host of scale interactions. However, with the advancement of computer architectures, GCMs are becoming capable of running at high horizontal resolutions with grid spacings of less than 60 km. As a result, high-resolution GCMs are becoming a tool of choice to evaluate tropical cyclones in current and future climate conditions. This raises questions concerning the fidelity of GCMs for tropical cyclone assessments. The physical and dynamical components of GCMs need to be evaluated to assess their reliability for tropical cyclone studies. An idealized tropical cyclone test case for high-resolution GCMs is developed and implemented in aqua-planet mode with constant sea surface temperatures. The initial conditions are based on an analytic initial vortex seed that is in gradient-wind and hydrostatic balance and intensifies over a 10-day period. The influence of the model parameterization package on the development of the tropical cyclone is assessed. In particular, different physics parameterization suites are investigated within the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Atmosphere Model CAM, including physics versions 3.1, 4 and 5. The choice of the CAM physics suite has a significant impact on the evolution of the idealized vortex into a tropical cyclone. In addition, a test case of intermediate complexity is introduced. Therein it is suggested that a GCM dynamical core be paired with simple moist physics to test the evolution of the test vortex. This simple-physics configuration includes important driving mechanisms for tropical cyclones, including surface fluxes, boundary layer diffusion and large-scale condensation. The impact of the CAM dynamical core (the resolved fluid flow component) on the tropical cyclone intensity and size is evaluated. In particular, the finite-volume, spectral element

  12. Combined impact of global river-floods and tropical cyclones on long-term economic growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geiger, Tobias; Piontek, Franziska; Frieler, Katja

    2016-04-01

    Worldwide direct economic losses associated with the impact of river-floods and tropical cyclones have seen a rapid increase over time. Their nominal impact is projected to rise even further as the exposed population grows, per capita income increases, and anthropogenic climate change manifests. Beyond the immediate damage of each event, indirect economic impacts can affect growth trajectories of countries as a whole for many years after the disaster. Whether the cumulated indirect effects stimulate or hinder economic growth in the long-run is so far undecided as previous studies find contradicting results depending on the analysed hazard and the underlying methodology. We here combine two types of the costliest meteorological disasters worldwide in order to gain certainty on their joint impact in a comprehensive way. Relative affected population by country and year is determined based on historical tropical cyclone tracks (IBTrACS) and historical simulations of river-flood return periods forced by observed weather and used as a predictor for the disaster's impact on national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) time series. Controlling for various non-disaster related effects, we find a cumulated GDP deficit that remains robust for more than a decade after the event.

  13. The Role of Interacting Cyclones in Modifying Tropical Cyclone Landfall Threat: Fujiwhara vs. enhanced Beta drift?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hart, R. E.

    2013-12-01

    The recent impacts of tropical cyclones (TCs) Irene and Sandy have brought to the forefront the question of the true return period of landfalls in that region. Given the relatively short period of record of observations, those seeking robust return estimates often generate stochastic event sets. While the details of methods for generating those sets are generally not published (with an exception being Emanuel 2006), presentations have suggested that each member (TC event) of a stochastic set does not impact other TC members. Such an approach has the benefit of relative simplicity as well as rapidity of production, as each TC member can be produced without concern about simultaneous TCs in the basin. Given most real-world TCs are separated by several days or more, and distances of 2000km or more, this approach is seemingly well-founded for the majority of TC climatology. Yet, there have been many examples of TC-TC Fujiwhara interaction across the globe. While the interaction is much more common in the western Pacific, it is not unheard of in the Atlantic - with Connie and Diane in 1955 as two examples of such interaction but largely away from land. Further, the northeast U.S. coast can be threatened through such TC-TC interactions. The historic 1893 New York City Hurricane took an unusual NNW track (and landfall location) possibly as a consequence of interaction with one if not two additional nearby TCs. Numerical model (WRF) simulations of this case revealed exceptional difficulty in track prediction, illustrating further the complexity of the interaction. Interaction is not necessarily limited to another TC. Occasionally, a TC will interact with an occluded cold-core cyclone, which can then take the TC on a highly unusual track. Such interactions by their nature occur most often early or late in the TC season. Examples of TC-nonTC interaction include the 1938 New England Hurricane, Hurricane Hazel from 1950, and most recently, Hurricane Sandy, all of which had

  14. Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones on the Great Barrier Reef and its ecological importance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolff, Nicholas H.; Wong, Aaron; Vitolo, Renato; Stolberg, Kristin; Anthony, Kenneth R. N.; Mumby, Peter J.

    2016-06-01

    Tropical cyclones have been a major cause of reef coral decline during recent decades, including on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). While cyclones are a natural element of the disturbance regime of coral reefs, the role of temporal clustering has previously been overlooked. Here, we examine the consequences of different types of cyclone temporal distributions (clustered, stochastic or regular) on reef ecosystems. We subdivided the GBR into 14 adjoining regions, each spanning roughly 300 km, and quantified both the rate and clustering of cyclones using dispersion statistics. To interpret the consequences of such cyclone variability for coral reef health, we used a model of observed coral population dynamics. Results showed that clustering occurs on the margins of the cyclone belt, being strongest in the southern reefs and the far northern GBR, which also has the lowest cyclone rate. In the central GBR, where rates were greatest, cyclones had a relatively regular temporal pattern. Modelled dynamics of the dominant coral genus, Acropora, suggest that the long-term average cover might be more than 13 % greater (in absolute cover units) under a clustered cyclone regime compared to stochastic or regular regimes. Thus, not only does cyclone clustering vary significantly along the GBR but such clustering is predicted to have a marked, and management-relevant, impact on the status of coral populations. Additionally, we use our regional clustering and rate results to sample from a library of over 7000 synthetic cyclone tracks for the GBR. This allowed us to provide robust reef-scale maps of annual cyclone frequency and cyclone impacts on Acropora. We conclude that assessments of coral reef vulnerability need to account for both spatial and temporal cyclone distributions.

  15. Reconciling droughts and landfalling tropical cyclones in the Southeastern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Misra, Vasubandhu; Bastola, Satish

    2016-02-01

    A popular perception is that landfalling tropical cyclones help to mitigate droughts in the Southeastern United States (SeUS). However intriguing paradigms on the role of large scale SST variations on continental US including SeUS droughts and seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity confronts us. These paradigms suggest that in the presence of warm (cold) eastern tropical Pacific and cold (warm) Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) lead to the increased likelihood of wetter (drier) conditions over the continental US including the SeUS. Juxtaposing this understanding with the fact that landfalling tropical cyclones contribute significantly to the annual mean total rainfall in the SeUS and in El Niño (La Niña) years with cold (warm) tropical Atlantic SSTA lead to reduced (increased) Atlantic tropical cyclone activity raises a conflict on the role of the large-scale SST variations in SeUS hydroclimate. This study attempts to investigate the apparent dichotomous role of the large scale SST variations on the SeUS hydrology by examining the role of rainfall from landfalling tropical cyclones in the SeUS to local seasonal droughts. Our study finds that the contribution of the rainfall from landfalling tropical cyclone on the mitigation of monthly drought in the 28 SeUS watersheds is relatively insignificant. So much so that the hydrological model uncertainty in estimating the drought index over the 28 SeUS watersheds is larger than the sensitivity exhibited by the drought index to the inclusion of rain from landfalling tropical cyclone. The conclusions of this study are justified by the fact that the timing of the landfalling tropical cyclone in relation to overall soil moisture conditions of the watershed does not coincide with a drought like situation in the 1948-2006 time period analyzed in this study. This largely stems from the fact that the large-scale flow pattern resulting in abundant (lack of) advection of moisture for anomalously wet (dry

  16. Monitoring tropical cyclone intensity using wind fields derived from short-interval satellite images

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodgers, E. B.; Gentry, R. C.

    1981-01-01

    Rapid scan visible images from the Visible Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer sensor on board SMS-2 and GOES-1 were used to derive high resolution upper and lower tropospheric environmental wind fields around three western Atlantic tropical cyclones (1975-78). These wind fields were used to derive upper and lower tropospheric areal mean relative vorticity and their differences, the net relative angular momentum balance and upper tropospheric mass outflow. These kinematic parameters were shown by studies using composite rawinsonde data to be strongly related to tropical cyclone formation and intensity changes. Also, the role of forced synoptic scale subsidence in tropical cyclone formation was examined. The studies showed that satellite-derived lower and upper tropospheric wind fields can be used to monitor and possibly predict tropical cyclone formation and intensity changes. These kinematic analyses showed that future changes in tropical cyclone intensity are mainly related to the "spin-up" of the storms by the net horizontal transport of relative angular momentum caused by convergence of cyclonic vorticity in the lower troposphere and to a lesser extent the divergence of anticyclone vorticity in the upper troposphere.

  17. Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?

    PubMed

    Holland, Greg J; Webster, Peter J

    2007-11-15

    We find that long-period variations in tropical cyclone and hurricane frequency over the past century in the North Atlantic Ocean have occurred as three relatively stable regimes separated by sharp transitions. Each regime has seen 50% more cyclones and hurricanes than the previous regime and is associated with a distinct range of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Overall, there appears to have been a substantial 100-year trend leading to related increases of over 0.7 degrees C in SST and over 100% in tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers. It is concluded that the overall trend in SSTs, and tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers is substantially influenced by greenhouse warming. Superimposed on the evolving tropical cyclone and hurricane climatology is a completely independent oscillation manifested in the proportions of tropical cyclones that become major and minor hurricanes. This characteristic has no distinguishable net trend and appears to be associated with concomitant variations in the proportion of equatorial and higher latitude hurricane developments, perhaps arising from internal oscillations of the climate system. The period of enhanced major hurricane activity during 1945-1964 is consistent with a peak period in major hurricane proportions.

  18. Global impact of tropical cyclones on primary production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menkes, Christophe E.; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Lévy, Marina; Ethé, Christian; Bopp, Laurent; Aumont, Olivier; Vincent, Emmanuel; Vialard, Jérôme; Jullien, Swen

    2016-05-01

    In this paper, we explore the global responses of surface temperature, chlorophyll, and primary production to tropical cyclones (TCs). Those ocean responses are first characterized from the statistical analysis of satellite data under ~1000 TCs over the 1998-2007 period. Besides the cold wake, the vast majority of TCs induce a weak chlorophyll response, with only ~10% of induced blooms exceeding 0.1 mg m-3. The largest chlorophyll responses mostly occur within coastal regions, in contrast to the strongest cold wakes that generally occur farther offshore. To understand this decoupling, we analyze a coupled dynamical-biogeochemical oceanic simulation forced by realistic wind vortices applied along observed TC tracks. The simulation displays a realistic spatial structure of TC-induced blooms and its observed decoupling with TC cold wakes. In regions of strong TC energy input, the strongest cold wakes occur in regions of shallow thermocline (<60 m) and the strongest blooms in regions of shallow nitracline and/or subsurface chlorophyll maximum (<60 m). Shallow thermoclines are found over many open ocean regions, while regions of shallow nitracline and/or subsurface chlorophyll maximum are most prominent in near-coastal areas, explaining the spatial decoupling between the cold and bloom wakes. The overall TC contribution to annual primary production is weak and amounts to ~1%, except in a few limited areas (east Eurasian coast, South tropical Indian Ocean, Northern Australian coast, and Eastern Pacific Ocean in the TC-prone region) where it can locally reach up to 20-30%. Nearly 80% of this TC-induced annual primary production is the result of the biogeochemical response to the 30% strongest TCs.

  19. The Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Coral Bleaching and Coral Diseases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Hooidonk, R. J.; Huber, M.

    2006-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) impact coral reef ecology in various ways, they cool down ambient sea surface temperature (SST), damage coral reefs by wave action, decrease salinity, increase nutrients, and increase sedimentation rates on a reef. Here we present an investigation into the effect of TCs on coral bleaching and the effect TCs have on the occurrence of coral diseases. Coral bleaching, the condition where the symbiotic zooxanthellae leave the coral host, is one of the major threats to coral reefs. Bleaching occurs in anomalously warm waters, analysis of historical TC tracks show that TCs frequently occur near coral bleaching episodes. Intriguingly, TCs cool down sea surface temperature by vertical mixing and as SST is the most important factor in coral bleaching this phenomenon might have an impact on the duration, occurrence and the resulting coral mortality, of bleaching events. In recent literature a correlation has been seen in the power of tropical cyclones and average sea surface temperature, making the study of the effect of TCs on the ecology of reefs an urgent one. We will present case studies where a TCs occurred near bleaching episodes and a statistical analysis to quantify this effect. To do this we use historical cyclone track data, satellite SST data, and a dataset of reefs. But there are other TC effects on reefs that bear investigation. Because TCs occur near corals that experience thermal stress, the changes in the corals environment caused by TCs might be anomalously detrimental. For example, data suggests that corals, because they are stressed by increased sedimentation, are more vulnerable to disease and algal overgrowth after TC damage. Nutrients have been shown to increase the severity of coral diseases. With satellite data it can be shown that short-term events such as increased run-off due to tropical cyclones can be an important part of the distribution of pollutants and pathogens affecting reefs. Infectious diseases severely affect

  20. Improving NASA's Multiscale Modeling Framework for Tropical Cyclone Climate Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shen, Bo-Wen; Nelson, Bron; Cheung, Samson; Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2013-01-01

    One of the current challenges in tropical cyclone (TC) research is how to improve our understanding of TC interannual variability and the impact of climate change on TCs. Recent advances in global modeling, visualization, and supercomputing technologies at NASA show potential for such studies. In this article, the authors discuss recent scalability improvement to the multiscale modeling framework (MMF) that makes it feasible to perform long-term TC-resolving simulations. The MMF consists of the finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM), supplemented by a copy of the Goddard cumulus ensemble model (GCE) at each of the fvGCM grid points, giving 13,104 GCE copies. The original fvGCM implementation has a 1D data decomposition; the revised MMF implementation retains the 1D decomposition for most of the code, but uses a 2D decomposition for the massive copies of GCEs. Because the vast majority of computation time in the MMF is spent computing the GCEs, this approach can achieve excellent speedup without incurring the cost of modifying the entire code. Intelligent process mapping allows differing numbers of processes to be assigned to each domain for load balancing. The revised parallel implementation shows highly promising scalability, obtaining a nearly 80-fold speedup by increasing the number of cores from 30 to 3,335.

  1. Reduced drag coefficient for high wind speeds in tropical cyclones.

    PubMed

    Powell, Mark D; Vickery, Peter J; Reinhold, Timothy A

    2003-03-20

    The transfer of momentum between the atmosphere and the ocean is described in terms of the variation of wind speed with height and a drag coefficient that increases with sea surface roughness and wind speed. But direct measurements have only been available for weak winds; momentum transfer under extreme wind conditions has therefore been extrapolated from these field measurements. Global Positioning System sondes have been used since 1997 to measure the profiles of the strong winds in the marine boundary layer associated with tropical cyclones. Here we present an analysis of these data, which show a logarithmic increase in mean wind speed with height in the lowest 200 m, maximum wind speed at 500 m and a gradual weakening up to a height of 3 km. By determining surface stress, roughness length and neutral stability drag coefficient, we find that surface momentum flux levels off as the wind speeds increase above hurricane force. This behaviour is contrary to surface flux parameterizations that are currently used in a variety of modelling applications, including hurricane risk assessment and prediction of storm motion, intensity, waves and storm surges.

  2. Impact of environmental moisture on tropical cyclone intensification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, L.; Su, H.; Fovell, R. G.; Dunkerton, T. J.; Wang, Z.; Kahn, B. H.

    2015-06-01

    The impacts of environmental moisture on the intensification of a tropical cyclone (TC) are investigated in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with a focus on the azimuthal asymmetry of the moisture impacts. A series of sensitivity experiments with varying moisture perturbations in the environment are conducted and the Marsupial Paradigm framework is employed to understand the different moisture impacts. We find that modification of environmental moisture has insignificant impacts on the storm in this case unless it leads to convective activity in the environment, which deforms the quasi-Lagrangian boundary of the storm. By facilitating convection and precipitation outside the storm, enhanced environmental moisture ahead of the northwestward-moving storm induces a dry air intrusion to the inner core and limits TC intensification. However, increased moisture in the rear quadrants favors intensification by providing more moisture to the inner core and promoting storm symmetry, with primary contributions coming from moisture increase in the boundary layer. The different impacts of environmental moisture on TC intensification are governed by the relative locations of moisture perturbations and their interactions with the storm Lagrangian structure.

  3. Impact of environmental moisture on tropical cyclone intensification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, L.; Su, H.; Fovell, R. G.; Dunkerton, T. J.; Wang, Z.; Kahn, B. H.

    2015-12-01

    The impacts of environmental moisture on the intensification of a tropical cyclone (TC) are investigated in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with a focus on the azimuthal asymmetry of the moisture impacts relative to the storm path. A series of sensitivity experiments with varying moisture perturbations in the environment are conducted and the Marsupial Paradigm framework is employed to understand the different moisture impacts. We find that modification of environmental moisture has insignificant impacts on the storm in this case unless it leads to convective activity that deforms the quasi-Lagrangian boundary of the storm and changes the moisture transport into the storm. By facilitating convection and precipitation outside the storm, enhanced environmental moisture ahead of the northwestward-moving storm induces a dry air intrusion to the inner core and limits TC intensification. In contrast, increased moisture in the rear quadrants favors intensification by providing more moisture to the inner core and promoting storm symmetry, with primary contributions coming from moisture increase in the boundary layer. The different impacts of environmental moisture on TC intensification are governed by the relative locations of moisture perturbations and their interactions with the storm Lagrangian structure.

  4. Dynamics of the Stratiform Sector of a Tropical Cyclone Rainband

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Didlake, A. C.; Houze, R.

    2013-12-01

    Airborne Doppler radar collected observations of the stationary rainband complex of Hurricane Rita (2005) in exceptional detail. Dynamics of the stationary rainband complex play a large role in the evolution of the tropical cyclone's internal structure. The stratiform sector of the stationary rainband complex occurs on the downwind end of the complex. This stratiform rainband is a mesoscale feature consisting of nearly uniform precipitation and weak vertical velocities from collapsing convective cells. Upward transport and associated latent heating occur within the stratiform cloud layer in the form of rising radial outflow. Below the cloud layer, descending radial inflow was driven by horizontal buoyancy gradients, and thus horizontal vorticity generation, introduced by regions of sublimational and melting cooling. The organization of this transport initially is robust but fades downwind as the convection dissipates. This descending inflow advected higher angular momentum inward, which resulted in the development of a midlevel tangential jet and broadening of the tangential wind field. This circulation may have also contributed to ventilation of the eyewall as inflow of low-entropy air continued past the rainband in both the boundary layer and midlevels. Given the expanse of the stratiform rainband region, its thermodynamic and kinematic impacts likely help to modify the structure and intensity of the overall storm.

  5. The inner core thermodynamics of the tropical cyclone boundary layer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Gabriel J.

    2016-10-01

    Although considerable progress has been made in understanding the inner-core dynamics of the tropical cyclone boundary layer (TCBL), our knowledge of the inner-core thermodynamics of the TCBL remains limited. In this study, the inner-core budgets of potential temperature (θ), specific humidity ( q), and reversible equivalent potential temperature (θ _e) are examined using a high-resolution multilevel boundary layer model. The potential temperature budgets show that the heat energy is dominated by latent heat release in the eyewall, evaporative cooling along the outer edge of the eyewall, and upward surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat from the underlying warm ocean. It is shown that the vertical θ advection overcompensates the sum of radial advective warming from the boundary layer outflow jet and latent heating for the development of cooling in the eyewall within the TCBL. The moisture budgets show the dominant upward transport of moisture in the eyewall updrafts, partly by the boundary-layer outflow jet from the bottom eye region, so that the eyewall remains nearly saturated. The θ _e budgets reveal that the TCBL is maintained thermodynamically by the upward surface flux of higher-θ _e air from the underlying warm ocean, the radial transport of low-θ _e air from the outer regions of the TCBL, and the dry adiabatic cooling associated by eyewall updrafts. These results underscore the significance of vertical motion and the location of the boundary layer outflow jet in maintaining the inner core thermal structure of the TCBL.

  6. Effects of tropical North Atlantic SST on tropical cyclone genesis in the western North Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Jinhua; Li, Tim; Tan, Zhemin; Zhu, Zhiwei

    2016-02-01

    The tropical cyclone genesis number (TCGN) in July-October (JASO) over the western North Pacific (WNP) exhibits a robust interannual variation. It shows a longitudinally tri-pole pattern with a high in the eastern WNP and South China Sea (SCS) and a low in the western WNP, which explain 42.2 and 23.4 % of total TCGN variance in the eastern WNP and SCS, respectively. The high-low-high pattern is similar to that derived from a TC genesis potential index (GPI). To understand the cause of the longitudinal distribution of the dominant interannual mode, we examine the contributions of environmental parameters associated with GPI. It is found that relative humidity and relative vorticity are important factors responsible for TC variability in the SCS, while vertical shear and relative vorticity are crucial in determining TC activity in eastern WNP. A simultaneous correlation analysis shows that the WNP TCGN in JASO is significantly negatively correlated (with a correlation coefficient of -0.5) with sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA). The longitudinal distribution of TC genesis frequency regressed onto TNA SSTA resembles that regressed upon the WNP TCGN series. The spatial patterns of regressed environmental variables onto the SSTA over the TNA also resemble those onto TCGN in the WNP, that is, an increase of relative humidity in the SCS and a weakening of vertical shear in the eastern WNP are all associated with cold SSTA in the TNA. Further analyses show that the cold SSTA in the TNA induce a negative heating in situ. In response to this negative heating, a low (upper)-level anomalous aniti-cyclonic (cyclonic) flows appear over the subtropical North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific, and to east of the cold SSTA, anomalous low-level westerlies appear in the tropical Indian Ocean. Given pronounced mean westerlies in northern Indian Ocean in boreal summer, the anomalous westerly flows increase local surface wind speed and surface

  7. Winds, Water Budgets and Stable Isotopes in Tropical Cyclones using TRMM and QUICKSCAT

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lawrence, James R.

    2004-01-01

    Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Changes in its concentration and distribution are controlled by the hydrologic cycle. Because of its capacity to absorb and emit long wave radiation, release latent heat during condensation in storms and reflect short wave radiation when clouds form it has a major impact on Global climate change. The stable isotope ratios of water are H20 H2l6O and H0 H2l6O. These ratios change whenever water undergoes a phase change. They also change in both rain and water vapor whenever an air parcel is exposed to rain. In addition the relative changes in the two ratios differ as a &nction of the relative humidity. In short, the stable isotope ratios in water vapor in the atmosphere contain an integrated history of the processes affecting the concentration and distribution of water vapor in the atmosphere. Therefore the measurement and interpretation of changes in these stable isotope ratios are a powerful tool matched by no other method in tracing the transport history of water in the atmosphere. Our initial studies under this grant focused on the changes of the stable isotope ratios of precipitation and water vapor in tropical cyclones. The changes in time and space were found to be very large and to trace the transport of water in the storms reflecting changes in basic structural features. Because the stable isotope ratios of rains from tropical cyclones are so low flooding associated with land falling tropical cyclones introduces a negative isotopic spike into the coastal surface waters. In addition the stable isotope ratios of water vapor in the vicinity of tropical cyclones is anomalously low. This suggests that carbonate shelled organisms such as ostracoda living in coastal waters have the potential to record the isotopic spike and thereby provide a long term record of tropical storm activity in sediment cores containing fossil shells. Likewise, tree rings in coastal environments offer a similar potential

  8. Winds, Water Budgets and Stable Isotopes in Tropical Cyclones using TRMM and QUICKSCAT

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lawrence, James R.

    2004-01-01

    Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Changes in its concentration and distribution are controlled by the hydrologic cycle. Because of its capacity to absorb and emit long wave radiation, release latent heat during condensation in storms and reflect short wave radiation when clouds form it has a major impact on Global climate change. The stable isotope ratios of water are H20 H2l6O and H0 H2l6O. These ratios change whenever water undergoes a phase change. They also change in both rain and water vapor whenever an air parcel is exposed to rain. In addition the relative changes in the two ratios differ as a &nction of the relative humidity. In short, the stable isotope ratios in water vapor in the atmosphere contain an integrated history of the processes affecting the concentration and distribution of water vapor in the atmosphere. Therefore the measurement and interpretation of changes in these stable isotope ratios are a powerful tool matched by no other method in tracing the transport history of water in the atmosphere. Our initial studies under this grant focused on the changes of the stable isotope ratios of precipitation and water vapor in tropical cyclones. The changes in time and space were found to be very large and to trace the transport of water in the storms reflecting changes in basic structural features. Because the stable isotope ratios of rains from tropical cyclones are so low flooding associated with land falling tropical cyclones introduces a negative isotopic spike into the coastal surface waters. In addition the stable isotope ratios of water vapor in the vicinity of tropical cyclones is anomalously low. This suggests that carbonate shelled organisms such as ostracoda living in coastal waters have the potential to record the isotopic spike and thereby provide a long term record of tropical storm activity in sediment cores containing fossil shells. Likewise, tree rings in coastal environments offer a similar potential

  9. A reassessment of the integrated impact of tropical cyclones on surface chlorophyll in the western subtropical North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foltz, Gregory R.; Balaguru, Karthik; Leung, L. Ruby

    2015-02-01

    The impact of tropical cyclones on surface chlorophyll concentration is assessed in the western subtropical North Atlantic Ocean during 1998-2011. Previous studies in this area focused on individual cyclones and gave mixed results regarding the importance of tropical cyclone-induced mixing for changes in surface chlorophyll. Using a more integrated and comprehensive approach that includes quantification of cyclone-induced changes in mixed layer depth, here it is shown that accumulated cyclone energy explains 22% of the interannual variability in seasonally averaged (June-November) chlorophyll concentration in the western subtropical North Atlantic, after removing the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The variance explained by tropical cyclones is thus about 70% of that explained by the NAO, which has well-known impacts in this region. It is therefore likely that tropical cyclones contribute significantly to interannual variations of primary productivity in the western subtropical North Atlantic during the hurricane season.

  10. A Reassessment of the Integrated Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Surface Chlorophyll in the Western Subtropical North Atlantic

    SciTech Connect

    Foltz, Gregory R.; Balaguru, Karthik; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2015-02-28

    The impact of tropical cyclones on surface chlorophyll concentration is assessed in the western subtropical North Atlantic Ocean during 1998–2011. Previous studies in this area focused on individual cyclones and gave mixed results regarding the importance of tropical cyclone-induced mixing for changes in surface chlorophyll. Using a more integrated and comprehensive approach that includes quantification of cyclone-induced changes in mixed layer depth, here it is shown that accumulated cyclone energy explains 22% of the interannual variability in seasonally-averaged (June–November) chlorophyll concentration in the western subtropical North Atlantic, after removing the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The variance explained by tropical cyclones is thus about 70% of that explained by the NAO, which has well-known impacts in this region. It is therefore likely that tropical cyclones contribute significantly to interannual variations of primary productivity in the western subtropical North Atlantic during the hurricane season.

  11. Impacts and recovery from severe tropical cyclone Yasi on the Great Barrier Reef.

    PubMed

    Beeden, Roger; Maynard, Jeffrey; Puotinen, Marjetta; Marshall, Paul; Dryden, Jen; Goldberg, Jeremy; Williams, Gareth

    2015-01-01

    Full recovery of coral reefs from tropical cyclone (TC) damage can take decades, making cyclones a major driver of habitat condition where they occur regularly. Since 1985, 44 TCs generated gale force winds (≥17 metres/second) within the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP). Of the hurricane strength TCs (≥H1-Saffir Simpson scale; ≥ category 3 Australian scale), TC Yasi (February, 2011) was the largest. In the weeks after TC Yasi crossed the GBRMP, participating researchers, managers and rangers assessed the extent and severity of reef damage via 841 Reef Health and Impact Surveys at 70 reefs. Records were scaled into five damage levels representing increasingly widespread colony-level damage (1, 2, 3) and reef structural damage (4, 5). Average damage severity was significantly affected by direction (north vs south of the cyclone track), reef shelf position (mid-shelf vs outer-shelf) and habitat type. More outer-shelf reefs suffered structural damage than mid-shelf reefs within 150 km of the track. Structural damage spanned a greater latitudinal range for mid-shelf reefs than outer-shelf reefs (400 vs 300 km). Structural damage was patchily distributed at all distances, but more so as distance from the track increased. Damage extended much further from the track than during other recent intense cyclones that had smaller circulation sizes. Just over 15% (3,834 km2) of the total reef area of the GBRMP is estimated to have sustained some level of coral damage, with ~4% (949 km2) sustaining a degree of structural damage. TC Yasi likely caused the greatest loss of coral cover on the GBR in a 24-hour period since 1985. Severely impacted reefs have started to recover; coral cover increased an average of 4% between 2011 and 2013 at re-surveyed reefs. The in situ assessment of impacts described here is the largest in scale ever conducted on the Great Barrier Reef following a reef health disturbance.

  12. Impact of Aerosols on Tropical Cyclones: An Investigation Using Convection-permitting Model Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Hazra, Anupam; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Taraphdar, Sourav; Chen, J. P.; Cotton, William R.

    2013-07-16

    The role of aerosols effect on two tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal are investigated using a convection permitting model with two-moment mixed-phase bulk cloud microphysics scheme. The simulation results show the role of aerosol on the microphysical and dynamical properties of cloud and bring out the change in efficiency of the clouds in producing precipitation. The tracks of the TCs are hardly affected by the changing aerosol types, but the intensity exhibits significant sensitivity due to the change in aerosol contribution. It is also clearly seen from the analyses that higher heating in the middle troposphere within the cyclone center is in response to latent heat release as a consequence of greater graupel formation. Greater heating in the middle level is particularly noticeable for the clean aerosol regime which causes enhanced divergence in the upper level which, in turn, forces the lower level convergence. As a result, the cleaner aerosol perturbation is more unstable within the cyclone core and produces a more intense cyclone as compared to other two perturbations of aerosol. All these studies show the robustness of the concept of TC weakening by storm ingestion of high concentrations of CCN. The consistency of these model results gives us confidence in stating there is a high probability that ingestion of high CCN concentrations in a TC will lead to weakening of the storm but has little impact on storm direction. Moreover, as pollution is increasing over the Indian sub-continent, this study suggests pollution may be weakening TCs over the Bay of Bengal.

  13. Putting to rest WISHE-ful misconceptions for tropical cyclone intensification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montomery, Michael T.; Persing, John; Smith, Roger K.

    2015-03-01

    The purpose of this article is twofold. The first is to point out and correct several misconceptions about the putative WISHE mechanism of tropical cyclone intensification that currently are being taught to atmospheric science students, to tropical weather forecasters, and to laypeople who seek to understand how tropical cyclones intensify. The mechanism relates to the simplest problem of an initial cyclonic vortex in a quiescent environment. This first part is important because the credibility of tropical cyclone science depends inter alia on being able to articulate a clear and consistent picture of the hypothesized intensification process and its dependencies on key flow parameters. The credibility depends also on being able to test the hypothesized mechanisms using observations, numerical models, or theoretical analyses. The second purpose of the paper is to carry out new numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art numerical model to test a recent hypothesis invoking the WISHE feedback mechanism during the rapid intensification phase of a tropical cyclone. The results obtained herein, in conjunction with prior work, do not support this recent hypothesis and refute the view that the WISHE intensification mechanism is the essential mechanism of tropical cyclone intensification in the idealized problem that historically has been used to underpin the paradigm. This second objective is important because it presents a simple way of testing the hypothesized intensification mechanism and shows that the mechanism is neither essential nor the dominant mode of intensification for the prototype intensification problem. In view of the operational, societal, and scientific interest in the physics of tropical cyclone intensification, we believe this paper will be of broad interest to the atmospheric science community and the findings should be useful in both the classroom setting and frontier research.

  14. Elevated middle and upper troposphere ozone observed downstream of Atlantic tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jenkins, Gregory S.; Robjhon, Miliaritiana L.; Reyes, Ashford; Valentine, Adriel; Neves, Luis

    2015-10-01

    During the peak period of hurricane activity in the summer of 2010, vertical profiles of ozone using ozonesondes were taken downstream of tropical cyclones in the Western and Eastern Atlantic Ocean basin at Barbados and Cape Verde. Measurements are taken for tropical cyclones Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Julia and Igor. The measurements show an increase in ozone mixing ratios with air originating from the tropical cyclones at 5-10 km altitude. We suggest that observed lightning activity associated tropical cyclones and the subsequent production of NOX followed by upper level outflow and subsidence ahead of the tropical cyclones and aged continental outflow from West Africa thunderstorms produced observed increases in ozone mixing ratios. Hurricane Danielle showed the largest changes in ozone mixing ratio with values increasing from 25 ppb to 70 ppb between 22 and 25 August in the middle troposphere, near 450 hPa; warming and drying in the middle and lower troposphere. Measurements of ozone mixing ratios in Cape Verde show higher ozone mixing ratios prior to the passage of tropical storm Julia but low ozone mixing ratios and high relative humidity up to 300 hPa when the storm was in close proximity. This is due most likely the vertically transported from the marine boundary layer.

  15. Effects of cyclone-generated disturbance on a tropical reef foraminifera assemblage.

    PubMed

    Strotz, Luke C; Mamo, Briony L; Dominey-Howes, Dale

    2016-01-01

    The sedimentary record, and associated micropalaeontological proxies, is one tool that has been employed to quantify a region's tropical cyclone history. Doing so has largely relied on the identification of allochthonous deposits (sediments and microfossils), sourced from deeper water and entrained by tropical cyclone waves and currents, in a shallow-water or terrestrial setting. In this study, we examine microfossil assemblages before and after a known tropical cyclone event (Cyclone Hamish) with the aim to better resolve the characteristics of this known signal. Our results identify no allochthonous material associated with Cyclone Hamish. Instead, using a swathe of statistical tools typical of ecological studies but rarely employed in the geosciences, we identify new, previously unidentified, signal types. These signals include a homogenising effect, with the level of differentiation between sample sites greatly reduced immediately following Cyclone Hamish, and discernible shifts in assemblage diversity. In the subsequent years following Hamish, the surface assemblage returns to its pre-cyclone form, but results imply that it is unlikely the community ever reaches steady state. PMID:27126520

  16. Effects of cyclone-generated disturbance on a tropical reef foraminifera assemblage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strotz, Luke C.; Mamo, Briony L.; Dominey-Howes, Dale

    2016-04-01

    The sedimentary record, and associated micropalaeontological proxies, is one tool that has been employed to quantify a region’s tropical cyclone history. Doing so has largely relied on the identification of allochthonous deposits (sediments and microfossils), sourced from deeper water and entrained by tropical cyclone waves and currents, in a shallow-water or terrestrial setting. In this study, we examine microfossil assemblages before and after a known tropical cyclone event (Cyclone Hamish) with the aim to better resolve the characteristics of this known signal. Our results identify no allochthonous material associated with Cyclone Hamish. Instead, using a swathe of statistical tools typical of ecological studies but rarely employed in the geosciences, we identify new, previously unidentified, signal types. These signals include a homogenising effect, with the level of differentiation between sample sites greatly reduced immediately following Cyclone Hamish, and discernible shifts in assemblage diversity. In the subsequent years following Hamish, the surface assemblage returns to its pre-cyclone form, but results imply that it is unlikely the community ever reaches steady state.

  17. Effects of cyclone-generated disturbance on a tropical reef foraminifera assemblage

    PubMed Central

    Strotz, Luke C.; Mamo, Briony L.; Dominey-Howes, Dale

    2016-01-01

    The sedimentary record, and associated micropalaeontological proxies, is one tool that has been employed to quantify a region’s tropical cyclone history. Doing so has largely relied on the identification of allochthonous deposits (sediments and microfossils), sourced from deeper water and entrained by tropical cyclone waves and currents, in a shallow-water or terrestrial setting. In this study, we examine microfossil assemblages before and after a known tropical cyclone event (Cyclone Hamish) with the aim to better resolve the characteristics of this known signal. Our results identify no allochthonous material associated with Cyclone Hamish. Instead, using a swathe of statistical tools typical of ecological studies but rarely employed in the geosciences, we identify new, previously unidentified, signal types. These signals include a homogenising effect, with the level of differentiation between sample sites greatly reduced immediately following Cyclone Hamish, and discernible shifts in assemblage diversity. In the subsequent years following Hamish, the surface assemblage returns to its pre-cyclone form, but results imply that it is unlikely the community ever reaches steady state. PMID:27126520

  18. Detection of merger and splitting of extra-tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kew, Sarah; Hanley, John

    2013-04-01

    Results from the project IMILAST (Intercomparison of mid-latitude storm diagnostics) show that, despite a wide variety in the 15 cyclone identification and tracking techniques considered, a reasonable agreement on tracks of intense cyclones can be reached, at least in the central intensifying stage of the cyclone life cycle. In contrast, diagnostics of cyclone genesis and lysis events show reduced agreement amongst the methods with genesis and lysis density maps exhibiting coherence over smaller spatial scales. Recent work by Hanley and Caballero claims that multi-centre cyclones occur more frequently as storm intensity increases, with an associated increase in the probability of spurious splittings by single-centre tracking routines. We investigate whether the methodological differences in handling of cyclone merger and splitting are responsible for the range in genesis/lysis outcomes exhibited in IMILAST results or whether other factors, such as cyclone definition, have more influence over the spread. The study is focussed on a number of selected cases of intense cyclones that undergo a clear merger or splitting. Of the methods contributing to the IMILAST project, three explicitly handle cyclone merger and splitting. In demonstrating the differences between the techniques, we explore what each approach has to offer.

  19. Tropical cyclone bebe creates a new land formation on funafuti atoll.

    PubMed

    Maragos, J E; Baines, G B; Beveridge, P J

    1973-09-21

    A huge rubble rampart 18 kilometers long was formed at Funafuti Atoll during tropical cyclone Bebe on 21 October 1972. The material forming the rampart was derived from deeper water offshore. The formation appears to be permanent and indicates that tropical storms may play a significant role in the formation of atoll islets.

  20. The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity.

    PubMed

    Kossin, James P; Emanuel, Kerry A; Vecchi, Gabriel A

    2014-05-15

    Temporally inconsistent and potentially unreliable global historical data hinder the detection of trends in tropical cyclone activity. This limits our confidence in evaluating proposed linkages between observed trends in tropical cyclones and in the environment. Here we mitigate this difficulty by focusing on a metric that is comparatively insensitive to past data uncertainty, and identify a pronounced poleward migration in the average latitude at which tropical cyclones have achieved their lifetime-maximum intensity over the past 30 years. The poleward trends are evident in the global historical data in both the Northern and the Southern hemispheres, with rates of 53 and 62 kilometres per decade, respectively, and are statistically significant. When considered together, the trends in each hemisphere depict a global-average migration of tropical cyclone activity away from the tropics at a rate of about one degree of latitude per decade, which lies within the range of estimates of the observed expansion of the tropics over the same period. The global migration remains evident and statistically significant under a formal data homogenization procedure, and is unlikely to be a data artefact. The migration away from the tropics is apparently linked to marked changes in the mean meridional structure of environmental vertical wind shear and potential intensity, and can plausibly be linked to tropical expansion, which is thought to have anthropogenic contributions.

  1. Tropical Cyclone Vulnerability Mapping Using Geospatial Techniques: Application to a Coastal Upazila in Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoque, M. A. A.; Phinn, S. R.; Roelfsema, C. M.; Childs, I.

    2015-12-01

    Cyclones are one of the most catastrophic natural disasters. Globally, many coastal regions are vulnerable to different categories cyclones. In Bangladesh, disasters from tropical cyclones are annual occurrences in coastal areas. The intensity and extent of damage due to tropical cyclones are very high. An appropriate mapping approach is essential for producing detail vulnerability assessments to deliver useful information for reducing the impacts of cyclones on people, property and environment. The present study developed and tested a vulnerability mapping approach for tropical cyclone impacts in Sarankhola upazila a 151 km2 local government area located in coastal Bangladesh. The study applied the approach by integrating remote sensing, field data and multi-criteria evaluation at regional scales covering <1000 km2. Seven criteria concerned with cyclone impacts were considered for the study: elevation, slope, geomorphology, proximity to coastline, proximity to cyclone track, land uses and population density. Thematic raster map layers were prepared for every criterion and weighted using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with sensitivity analysis. Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) technique was used for overlaying standardized criteria maps with their weights to produce the vulnerability map. Our results indicated that 15% of the study area had very high vulnerability; mostly close to the river and densely populated areas, with 40 % area as high vulnerability on cropped grounds. Around 25% area was classified at moderate vulnerability covering most of the forests. The low and very low vulnerable area accounts the 12% and 8% respectively. This approach provided very promising result and it was verified by field survey. The result provides the strong applicability of this approach to assess the vulnerability of coastal Bangladesh to tropical cyclones.

  2. Tropical Cyclone Paka's Initial Explosive Development (10-12 December, 1997)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodgers, Edward B.; Halverson, Jeff; Simpson, Joanne; Olson, William; Pierce, Harold

    1999-01-01

    Convection associated with an equatorial westerly wind burst was first observed late November during the strong El Nino of 1997 at approximately 2000 km southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. This region of convection lead to the formation of twin tropical cyclones, one in the southern hemisphere named Pam and the other in the northern hemisphere named Paka. During the first week in December, tropical cyclone Paka, the system of concern, reached tropical storm stage as it moved rapidly westward at relatively low latitudes. During the 10-12 of December, Paka rapidly developed into a typhoon.

  3. Regional climate model projections of rainfall from U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wright, Daniel B.; Knutson, Thomas R.; Smith, James A.

    2015-12-01

    The eastern United States is vulnerable to flooding from tropical cyclone rainfall. Understanding how both the frequency and intensity of this rainfall will change in the future climate is a major challenge. One promising approach is the dynamical downscaling of relatively coarse general circulation model results using higher-resolution regional climate models (RCMs). In this paper, we examine the frequency of landfalling tropical cyclones and associated rainfall properties over the eastern United States using Zetac, an 18-km resolution RCM designed for modeling Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Simulations of 1980-2006 tropical cyclone frequency and rainfall intensity for the months of August-October are compared against results from previous studies and observation-based datasets. The 1980-2006 control simulations are then compared against results from three future climate scenarios: CMIP3/A1B (late twenty-first century) and CMIP5/RCP4.5 (early and late twenty-first century). In CMIP5 early and late twenty-first century projections, the frequency of occurrence of post-landfall tropical cyclones shows little net change over much of the eastern U.S. despite a decrease in frequency over the ocean. This reflects a greater landfalling fraction in CMIP5 projections, which is not seen in CMIP3-based projections. Average tropical cyclone rain rates over land within 500 km of the storm center increase by 8-17 % in the future climate projections relative to control. This is at least as much as expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation, which links a warmer atmosphere to greater atmospheric water vapor content. Over land, the percent enhancement of area-averaged rain rates from a given tropical cyclone in the warmer climate is greater for larger averaging radius (300-500 km) than near the storm, particularly for the CMIP3 projections. Although this study does not focus on attribution, the findings are broadly consistent with historical tropical cyclone rainfall

  4. Application of the Marsupial Paradigm to Tropical Cyclone Formation from Northwestward-Propagating Disturbances

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Zhuo; Dunkerton, Timothy J.; Montgomery, Michael T.

    2012-01-01

    A wave-tracking algorithm is developed for northwestward-propagating waves that, on occasion, play a role in tropical cyclogenesis over the western oceans. To obtain the Lagrangian flow structure, the frame of reference is translated obliquely at the same propagation speed with the precursor disturbance. Trajectory analysis suggests that streamlines in the obliquely translated frame of reference can be used to approximate flow trajectories. The algorithm was applied to Super Typhoon Nakri (2008), Tropical Cyclone Erika (2009), and a few other examples. Diagnoses of meteorological analyses and satellite-derived moisture and precipitation fields show that the marsupial framework for tropical cyclogenesis in tropical easterly waves is relevant also for northwestward-propagating disturbances as are commonly observed in the tropical western Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico, and the western North Pacific. Finally, it is suggested that analysis of the global model data and satellite observations in the marsupial framework can provide useful guidance on early tropical cyclone advisories.

  5. Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century

    PubMed Central

    Emanuel, Kerry A.

    2013-01-01

    A recently developed technique for simulating large [O(104)] numbers of tropical cyclones in climate states described by global gridded data is applied to simulations of historical and future climate states simulated by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate models. Tropical cyclones downscaled from the climate of the period 1950–2005 are compared with those of the 21st century in simulations that stipulate that the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases increases by over preindustrial values. In contrast to storms that appear explicitly in most global models, the frequency of downscaled tropical cyclones increases during the 21st century in most locations. The intensity of such storms, as measured by their maximum wind speeds, also increases, in agreement with previous results. Increases in tropical cyclone activity are most prominent in the western North Pacific, but are evident in other regions except for the southwestern Pacific. The increased frequency of events is consistent with increases in a genesis potential index based on monthly mean global model output. These results are compared and contrasted with other inferences concerning the effect of global warming on tropical cyclones. PMID:23836646

  6. Parametrization of Planetary Boundary-Layer Height with Helicity and Verification with Tropical Cyclone Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Lei-Ming; Bao, Xu-Wei

    2016-09-01

    To reduce the discrepancy between simulated and observed tropical cyclones, we consider a new parametrization scheme for planetary boundary-layer (PBL) height based on helicity, intended to provide an improved description of the overall helical structures of the tropical cyclone PBL simulated in a numerical model. This scheme was preliminarily tested in the Yonsei University (YSU) PBL scheme integrated within the National Center for Atmospheric Research Weather Research and Forecasting model. Based on verification of track simulations for seven tropical cyclones that made landfall over China, tropical cyclone Morakot (2009) was selected for further evaluation of the new scheme. Compared with the original scheme based on the Richardson number ( Ri), the new scheme elevated the PBL height associated with intense convection, which is consistent with observation. Importantly, the new scheme improved the numerical simulation of intense rainfall by modulating the PBL environment for convection evolution. Furthermore, the PBL height and 2-m temperature over land at night, which are frequently overestimated by the original YSU scheme, were improved using the new scheme. Because of its effects on PBL structures and convection evolution, the simulation of tropical cyclone Morakot intensity was improved by the new scheme.

  7. Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century.

    PubMed

    Emanuel, Kerry A

    2013-07-23

    A recently developed technique for simulating large [O(10(4))] numbers of tropical cyclones in climate states described by global gridded data is applied to simulations of historical and future climate states simulated by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate models. Tropical cyclones downscaled from the climate of the period 1950-2005 are compared with those of the 21st century in simulations that stipulate that the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases increases by over preindustrial values. In contrast to storms that appear explicitly in most global models, the frequency of downscaled tropical cyclones increases during the 21st century in most locations. The intensity of such storms, as measured by their maximum wind speeds, also increases, in agreement with previous results. Increases in tropical cyclone activity are most prominent in the western North Pacific, but are evident in other regions except for the southwestern Pacific. The increased frequency of events is consistent with increases in a genesis potential index based on monthly mean global model output. These results are compared and contrasted with other inferences concerning the effect of global warming on tropical cyclones.

  8. An Extended Forecast of the Frequencies of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2009

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2009-01-01

    An extended forecast of the frequencies for the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season is presented. Continued increased activity during the 2009 season with numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes exceeding long-term averages are indicated. Poisson statistics for the combined high-activity intervals (1950-1965 and 1995-2008) give the central 50% intervals to be 9-14, 5-8, and 2-4, respectively, for the number of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, with a 23.4% chance of exceeding 14 tropical cyclones, a 28% chance of exceeding 8 hurricanes, and a 31.9% chance of exceeding 4 major hurricanes. Based strictly on the statistics of the current high-activity interval (1995-2008), the central 50% intervals for the numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12-18, 6-10, and 3-5, respectively, with only a 5% chance of exceeding 23, 13, or 7 storms, respectively. Also examined are the first differences in 10-yr moving averages and the effects of global warming and decadal-length oscillations on the frequencies of occurrence for North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones. In particular, temperature now appears to be the principal driver of increased activity and storm strength during the current high-activity interval, with near-record values possible during the 2009 season.

  9. Have Tropical Cyclones Been Feeding More Extreme Rainfall?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K.-M.; Zhou, Y. P.; Wu, H.-T.

    2008-01-01

    We have conducted a study of the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) and extreme rain events using GPCP and TRMM rainfall data, and storm track data for July through November (JASON) in the North Atlantic (NAT) and the western North Pacific (WNP). Extreme rain events are defined in terms of percentile rainrate, and TC-rain by rainfall associated with a named TC. Results show that climatologically, 8% of rain events and 17% of the total rain amount in NAT are accounted by TCs, compared to 9% of rain events and 21% of rain amount in WNP. The fractional contribution of accumulated TC-rain to total rain, Omega, increases nearly linearly as a function of rainrate. Extending the analyses using GPCP pentad data for 1979-2005, and for the post-SSM/I period (1988-2005), we find that while there is no significant trend in the total JASON rainfall over NAT or WNP, there is a positive significant trend in heavy rain over both basins for the 1979-2005 period, but not for the post-SSM/I period. Trend analyses of Omega for both periods indicate that TCs have been feeding increasingly more to rainfall extremes in NAT, where the expansion of the warm pool area can explain slight more than 50% of the change in observed trend in total TC rainfall. In WNP, trend signals for Omega are mixed, and the long-term relationship between TC rain and warm pool areas are strongly influenced by interannual and interdecadal variability.

  10. Tropical Cyclones in the GISS ModelE2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Del Genio, Anthony; Jonas, Jeffrey A.; Kelley, Maxwell; Lu, Yun; Shaevitz, Daniel; Henderson, Naomi

    2016-01-01

    The authors describe the characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the GISS general circulation ModelE2 with a horizontal resolution 1deg x 1deg. Four model simulations are analyzed. In the first, the model is forced with sea surface temperature (SST) from the recent historical climatology. The other three have different idealized climate change simulations, namely (1) a uniform increase of SST by 2 deg., (2) doubling of the CO2 concentration and (3) a combination of the two. These simulations were performed as part of the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program Hurricane Working Group. Diagnostics of standard measures of TC activity are computed from the recent historical climatological SST simulation and compared with the same measures computed from observations. The changes in TC activity in the three idealized climate change simulations, by comparison with that in the historical climatological SST simulation, are also described. Similar to previous results in the literature, the changes in TC frequency in the simulation with a doubling CO2 and an increase in SST are approximately the linear sum of the TC frequency in the other two simulations. However, in contrast with previous results, in these simulations the effects of CO2 and SST on TC frequency oppose each other. Large-scale environmental variables associated with TC activity are then analyzed for the present and future simulations. Model biases in the large-scale fields are identified through a comparison with ERA-Interim reanalysis. Changes in the environmental fields in the future climate simulations are shown and their association with changes in TC activity discussed.

  11. Attribution of Annual Maximum Sea Levels to Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khouakhi, A.; Villarini, G.

    2015-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause catastrophic storm surges with major social, economic, and ecological impacts in coastal areas. Understanding the contribution of TCs to extreme sea levels is therefore essential. In this work we examine the contribution of TCs to annual maximum sea levels at the global scale, including potential climate controls and temporal changes. Complete global coverage (1842-2014) of historical 6-hour best track TC records are obtained from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) data set. Hourly tide gauge data are obtained from the Joint Archive for Sea Level Research Quality Data Set. There are 177 tide gauge stations with at least 25 complete years of data between 1970 and 2014 (a complete year is defined as having more than 90% of all the hourly measurements in a year). We associate an annual maximum sea level at a given station with a TC if the center of circulation of the storm passed within a certain distance from the station within a given time window. Spatial and temporal sensitivity analyses are performed with varying time windows (6h, 12h) and buffer zones (200km and 500km) around the tide gauge stations. Results highlight large regional differences, with some locations experiencing almost ¾ of their annual maxima during the passage of a TC. The attribution of annual maximum sea level to TCs is particularly high along the coastal areas of the eastern United States, the Gulf of Mexico, China, Japan, Taiwan and Western Australia. Further analyses will examine the role played by El Niño - Southern Oscillation and the potential temporal changes in TC contributions to annual maximum sea levels.

  12. Have Tropical Cyclones been Feeding More Extreme Rainfall?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, K.-M.; Zhou, Y. P.; Wu, H.-T.

    2008-01-01

    We have conducted a study of the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) and extreme rain events using GPCP and TRMM rainfall data ; and storm track data for July through November (JASON) in the North Atlantic (NAT) and the western North Pacific (WNP). Extreme rain events are defined in terms of percentile rainrate, and TC-gain by rainfall associated with a named TC. Results show that climatologically, 8% of rain events and 17% of the total rain amount in NAT are accounted by TCs, compared to 9% of rain events, and 21% of rain amount in WN.P. The fractional contribution of accumulated TC-rain to total rain, Omega, increases nearly linearly as a function of rainrate. Extending the analyses using GPCP pentad data for 1979-2005, and for the post-SSM/I period (1988-2005), we find that while there is no significant trend in the total JASON rainfall over NAT or WNP there is a positive significant trend in heavy rain over both basins for the 1979-2005 period, but not for the post-SSM/I period. Trend analyses of Omega for bout periods indicate that TCs have been feeding increasingly more to rainfall extremes in NAT, where the expansion of the warm pool area can explain slightly more than 50% of the change in observed trend in total TC rainfall. In. WNP, trend signals for Omega are mixed, and the loner term relationship between TC rain and warm pool area is strongly influenced by interannual and interdecadal variability.

  13. Deriving robust return periods for tropical cyclone inundations from sediments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nott, Jonathan F.; Jagger, Thomas H.

    2013-01-01

    Return periods for tropical cyclone (TC) marine inundations are usually derived from synthetic data sets generated from deterministic models or by extrapolating short historical records. Such approaches contain considerable uncertainties because it is difficult to test their veracity until a sufficiently long period has elapsed. These approaches also often only consider storm surges or storm tides and not the total inundation, which includes waves, set-up and run-up, likely to flood a coastal property. An alternative approach is to examine sedimentary records of actual events that occurred throughout the late Holocene. Sedimentary beach ridges are unique amongst the different types of storm inundation sedimentary records because they record variations in the height of total marine inundations rather than a censoring level as occurs with overwash deposits. The limitation in using beach ridges to derive return periods for inundations has been the lack of a robust statistical model that accurately describes the distribution of these events over the past several millennia. Such a model is presented here using a Generalized Extreme Value distribution and Bayesian analysis of a sand beach ridge plain record of extreme TC-generated marine inundations from northeast Australia. Using this approach, the return period of the marine inundation generated by severe TC Yasi is determined. This return period differs considerably from estimates determined using a probability-based approach, which extrapolates from a short historical record. With global climate changing and the magnitude of marine inundations expected to increase, there is mounting pressure to develop national standards for marine flood loadings on coastal buildings. Deriving accurate return periods of these events will be critical to this endeavor, and this approach will be applicable at numerous localities globally where storm deposited beach ridges occur.

  14. Diabatic and frictional forcing effects on the structure and intensity of tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slocum, Christopher J.

    Tropical cyclone intensity forecasting skill has slowed in improvement for both dynamical and statistical-dynamical forecasting methods in comparison to gains seen in track forecasting skill. Also, forecast skill related to rapid intensification, e.g. a 30 kt or greater increase in intensity within a 24-hour period, still remains poor. In order to make advances and gain a greater understanding, the processes that affect intensity change, especially rapid intensification, need further study. This work evaluates the roles of diabatic and frictional forcing on the structure and intensity of tropical cyclones. To assess the diabatic forcing effects on intensity change in tropical cyclones, this study develops applications of Eliassen's balanced vortex model to obtain one-dimensional solutions to the geopotential tendency and two-dimensional solutions to the transverse circulation. The one-dimensional balanced solutions are found with dynamical model outputs as well as aircraft reconnaissance combined with diabatic heating derived from microwave rainfall rate retrievals. This work uses solutions from both datasets to make short-range intensity predictions. The results show that for the one-dimensional solutions, the tangential tendency does not match the dynamical model or aircraft wind tendencies. To relax the assumptions of the one-dimensional solutions to the geopotential tendency, solutions for idealized vortices are examined by finding two-dimensional solutions to the transverse circulation. The two-dimensional solutions allow for evaluation of the axisymmetric structure of the vortex on the (r, z)-plane without setting the baroclinicity to zero and the static stability to a constant value. While the sensitivity of tangential wind tendency to diabatic forcing and the region of high inertial stability is more realistic in the two-dimensional results, the solutions still neglect the influence of friction from the boundary layer. To understand further the role of

  15. Response of Seasonal Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity to Suppression of African Easterly Waves in a Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patricola, C. M.; Saravanan, R.; Chang, P.

    2014-12-01

    Atlantic tropical cyclones and African easterly waves (AEWs) are strongly linked on the synoptic timescale, with about 85% of observed major Atlantic hurricanes originating from AEWs (e.g., Landsea et al. 1993). However, the influence of variability in AEWs on seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is not fully understood; a positive correlation between AEW activity and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity exists on the interannual timescale during just some periods of the observational record (e.g., Thorncroft and Hodges, 2001; Hopsch et al. 2007). This study investigates the impact of AEWs on seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity using regional climate model simulations in which AEWs were either prescribed or removed through the lateral boundary condition (LBC). The control simulation (10-member ensemble) was run at 27 km resolution and used 6-hourly LBCs from the NCEP CFS Reanalysis and daily NOAA Optimum Interpolation (OI) V2 sea surface temperature (SST) from the year 2005. In the experiment AEWs were suppressed by filtering 2-10 day variability over tropical latitudes from the eastern LBC, located along the west coast of the Sahel. The difference in Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency was insignificant between the simulations in which AEWs were prescribed versus suppressed, indicating that AEWs are not necessary to maintain climatological tropical cyclone frequency even though tropical cyclones readily originate from these features. This further implies that seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency is uninfluenced by variability in AEWs, and that the value of AEW variability as a predictor of Atlantic tropical cyclones is limited to the weekly timescale. However in response to filtering AEWs, accumulated cyclone energy significantly increased by about 15% of the control simulation mean and the spatial pattern of track density shifted in association with changes in steering winds. This suggests the importance of AEWs in impacting tropical cyclone

  16. Cyclone Driven Sediment Loads in a Tropical Mega-River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Darby, S. E.; Leyland, J.; Hackney, C. R.; Heasley, E.; Kummu, M.; Lauri, H.; Parsons, D. R.; Nicholas, A. P.; Aalto, R. E.; Best, J.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the links between environmental change and sediment transport in the mega-rivers that dominate the flux of terrestrial sediment to the oceans remains a major challenge. Many large river systems display significant seasonality in flow regime, which is affected to a greater or lesser degree by the influence of large tropical storms, which act to increase their variability and thus drive uncertainty in predicting the impacts associated with changes in future flow regimes. Here we quantify the significance of tropical storms in driving sediment flux from one of the world's largest rivers, the Mekong. Data was collected at Kratie, Cambodia; this being the site of the Mekong's final reliable flow gauging station before the Mekong delta. Suspended sediment fluxes were estimated by calibrating acoustic backscatter returns from an acoustic Doppler current profiler to observed suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) across a monsoon cycle. The retrieved SSCs were combined with flow velocity estimates to recover the sediment flux. These estimates of flux were then used to build sediment rating curves, taking account of hysteresis effects associated with sediment starvation on the falling limb of the Mekong's flood pulse, to predict suspended flux as a function of flow discharge. The derived sediment rating curves were then employed in an effective discharge analysis, initially using gauged flows, which include the effects of tropical storms, for the period 1981-2013. A hydrological model was then used to estimate daily discharge values for the same historical period, but for a scenario in which the effects of tropical storms on the flow regime are isolated. This was achieved by forcing the hydrological model with daily precipitation values that account for precipitation anomalies associated with observed tropical storms. The difference in cumulative sediment transport estimated by combining the two flow discharge scenarios with the constructed sediment rating

  17. Application of Helical Characteristics of the Velocity Field to Evaluate the Intensity of Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levina, G.; Glebova, E.; Naumov, A.; Trosnikov, I.

    The paper presents results of numerical analysis for helical features of velocity field to investigate the process of tropical cyclone formation, namely, the downward helicity flux through the upper boundary of the viscous atmospheric turbulent boundary layer has been calculated. The simulation was carried out by use of the regional atmospheric ETA model and NCEP reanalysis global data. Calculations were performed for two tropical cyclones - Wilma (Atlantic basin, 2005) and Man-Yi (North-West Pacific, 2007). It has been found, that the chosen helical characteristic reveals an adequate response to basic trends in variation of such important meteorological fields as pressure and wind velocity during the hurricane vortex evolution. The analysis carried out in the paper shows that the helicity flux can be used as an illustrative characteristic to describe the intensity and destructive power of tropical cyclones.

  18. Radial-vertical profiles of tropical cyclone derived from dropsondes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Yifang

    The scopes of this thesis research are two folds: the first one is to the construct the intensity-based composite radial-vertical profiles of tropical cyclones (TC) using GPS-based dropsonde observations and the second one is to identify the major deficiencies of Mathur vortices against the dropsonde composites of TCs. The intensity-based dropsonde composites of TCs advances our understanding of the dynamic and thermal structure of TCs of different intensity along the radial direction in and above the boundary layer where lies the devastating high wind that causes property damages and storm surges. The identification of the major deficiencies of Mathur vortices in representing the radial-vertical profiles of TC of different intensity helps to improve numerical predictions of TCs since most operational TC forecast models need to utilize bogus vortices, such as Mathur vortices, to initialize TC forecasts and simulations. We first screen all available GPS dropsonde data within and round 35 named TCs over the tropical Atlantic basin from 1996 to 2010 and pair them with TC parameters derived from the best-track data provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and select 1149 dropsondes that have continuous coverage in the lower troposphere. The composite radial-vertical profiles of tangential wind speed, temperature, mixing ratio and humidity are based for each TC category ranging from "Tropical Storm" (TS) to "Hurricane Category 1" (H1) through "Hurricane Category 5" (H5). The key findings of the dropsonde composites are: (i) all TCs have the maximum tangential wind within 1 km above the ground and a distance of 1-2 times of the radius of maximum wind (RMW) at the surface; (ii) all TCs have a cold ring surrounding the warm core near the boundary layer at a distance of 1-3 times of the RMW and the cold ring structure gradually diminishes at a higher elevation where the warm core structure prevails along the radial direction; (iii) the existence of such shallow cold

  19. The View from the Top: CALIOP Ice Water Content in the Uppermost Layer of Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Avery, Melody A.; Deng, Min; Garnier, Anne; Heymsfield, Andrew; Pelon, Jacques; Powell, Kathleen A.; Trepte, Charles R.; Vaughan, Mark A.; Winker, David M.; Young, Stuart

    2012-01-01

    NASA's CALIPSO satellite carries both the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and the Imaging Infrared Radiometer (IIR). The lidar is ideally suited to viewing the very top of tropical cyclones, and the IIR provides critical optical and microphysical information. The lidar and the IIR data work together to understand storm clouds since they are perfectly co-located, and big tropical cyclones provide an excellent complex target for comparing the observations. There is a lot of information from these case studies for understanding both the observations and the tropical cyclones, and we are just beginning to scratch the surface of what can be learned. Many tropical cyclone cloud particle measurements are focused on the middle and lower regions of storms, but characterization of cyclone interaction with the lowermost stratosphere at the upper storm boundary may be important for determining the total momentum and moisture transport budget, and perhaps for predicting storm intensity as well. A surprising amount of cloud ice is to be found at the very top of these big storms.

  20. Factors That Influence the Size of Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Shuai; Toumi, Ralf; Czaja, Arnaud; Van Kan, Adrian

    2015-04-01

    Tropical cyclone (TC) size is an important feature setting the extent of coastal flooding, the size of storm surge and area threatened by landfall. The importance of TC size is demonstrated comparing Hurricanes Sandy in 2012 and Bret in 1999. As a Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale category-3 hurricane, the radius of gale-force wind of Hurricane Sandy exceeded 800 km prior to landfall, and the storm caused catastrophic storm surge into the New Jersey and New York coastlines, and damage up to an estimated total of 50 billion. Hurricane Bret, on the other hand, was a more intense category-4 hurricane with a radius of gale-force wind of only 140 km. Although Bret's intensity is considerable, damage was reported to be relatively light, totalling an estimated 60 million. The difference impacts are mainly caused by the difference in size. Despite the fact that a wide range of observed TC sizes has been recognised, the underlying factors that control both individual storm size and the climatological size variation remain mysterious. Here an idealized full-physics numerical cyclone model and a modified hurricane steady-state model (λ model) for TC wind profile are used to investigate the influence of environmental temperature and initial vortex properties on TC size. In the simulation we find that a sea surface temperature increase, a temperature decrease in the upper troposphere, a large or strong initial vortex can lead to the extension of TC size. The numerical model simulations show a Gaussian distribution with width, λ, of the moist entropy in the boundary layer. The width, λ, has good linear relationship with the size changes caused by different factors. With regards to TC size and intensity, we find that, unlike the intensity prediction based on the maximum potential intensity theory, it seems that there is no upper limit for TC size providing there is sufficient latent heat flux. The increase of TC size at the steady stage also causes a slight drop in intensity. In

  1. A statistical analysis of vertical shear effect on tropical cyclone intensity change in the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Zhihua; Wang, Yuqing; Chen, Lianshou

    2010-01-01

    Based on the best track data of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis during 1981-2008,the effect of vertical wind shear (VWS) between different vertical levels and with different directions of shear on TC intensity change for TCs of different intensities, translational speeds, and latitudes were statistically analyzed. The results show that TC intensity change and VWS are generally negatively correlated, indicating the overall negative effect of VWS on TC intensity. The strong, slow moving, and low latitude TCs are strongly affected by VWS in a deep layer, while the weak, fast moving, and high latitude TCs are subject to strong effect by VWS in the mid-lower troposphere. Furthermore, overall easterly shear, especially in the mid-lower troposphere, has considerably weaker effects on TC intensity change than westerly shear because part of the easterly shear could be offset by the beta-induced northwesterly shear.

  2. Impact of hyperspectral radiance in the simulation of tropical cyclone using NCUM model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Routray, A.; George, John P.; Singh, Vivek; Rani, Indira

    2016-05-01

    The socioeconomic aspects of life in coastal regions of India are significantly affected by tropical cyclones (TCs) over North Indian Ocean (NIO). It is well known that the lack of conventional observation over the ocean is a critical factor limiting the accuracy of the TC forecast. The goal of this study is to assess the impact of hyperspectral sounder measurements from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) in the MetOp satellite on TC simulation using NCMRWF Unified Model (NCUM) with 17 km horizontal resolution. The results of the study indicate that the assimilation of hyperspectral radiance data has a positive impact on the prediction of track and intensity of TC.

  3. Evidence for the significant role of sea surface temperature distributions over remote tropical oceans in tropical cyclone intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hegde, Anitha Kumari; Kawamura, Ryuichi; Kawano, Tetsuya

    2016-07-01

    The role of remote ocean sea surface temperature (SST) in regulating tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics has been examined by performing numerical experiments with a regional scale model. Model simulations have been carried out to simulate typhoon Man-yi (July 2007), in our case study, under a range of SST conditions over the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. The intensity and track of the cyclone have been systematically changed in sensitivity simulations of cool and warm SSTs over that region, following its peak phase. Warm oceans can substantially reduce the intensification of western North Pacific cyclones, whereas cool oceans can enhance their strength. This is intimately associated with the enhancement/weakening of the moisture supply through the moisture conveyor belt (MCB) in the lower troposphere, from the Indian Ocean and South China Sea into the vicinity of the cyclone center. When the MCB is interrupted over the South China Sea in warm SST occurrences, the large-scale transport of moisture into the cyclone system is significantly reduced, leading to the weakening of the cyclone intensity and to the eastward shift of its track. This study shows that changes in remote tropical ocean SST can also modulate TCs and thus can help in improving the forecasting of TC intensities and tracks.

  4. Proxies of Tropical Cyclone Isotope Spikes in Precipitation: Landfall Site Selection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawrence, J. R.; Maddocks, R.

    2011-12-01

    The human experience of climate change is not one of gradual changes in seasonal or yearly changes in temperature or rainfall. Despite that most paleoclimatic reconstructions attempt to provide just such information. Humans experience climate change on much shorter time scales. We remember hurricanes, weeks of drought or overwhelming rainy periods. Tropical cyclones produce very low isotope ratios in both rainfall and in atmospheric water vapor. Thus, climate proxies that potentially record these low isotope ratios offer the most concrete record of climate change to which humans can relate. The oxygen isotopic composition of tropical cyclone rainfall has the potential to be recorded in fresh water carbonate fossil material, cave deposits and corals. The hydrogen isotopic composition of tropical cyclone rainfall has the potential to be recorded in tree ring cellulose and organic matter in fresh water bodies. The Class of carbonate organisms known as Ostracoda form their carapaces very rapidly. Thus fresh water ephemeral ponds in the subtropics are ideal locations for isotopic studies because they commonly are totally dry when tropical cyclones make landfall. The other proxies suffer primarily from a dilution effect. The water from tropical cyclones is mixed with pre-existing water. In cave deposits tropical cyclone rains mix with soil and ground waters. In the near shore coral environment the rain mixes with seawater. For tree rings there are three sources of water: soil water, atmospheric water vapor that exchanges with leaf water and tropical cyclone rain. In lakes because of their large size rainfall runoff mixes with ground water and preexisting water in the lake. A region that shows considerable promise is Texas / Northeast Mexico. In a study of surface waters that developed from the passage of Tropical Storm Allison (2001) in SE Texas both the pond water and Ostracoda that bloomed recorded the low oxygen isotope signal of that storm (Lawrence et al, 2008). In

  5. Evolution of the Tropical Cyclone Integrated Data Exchange And Analysis System (TC-IDEAS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Turk, J.; Chao, Y.; Haddad, Z.; Hristova-Veleva, S.; Knosp, B.; Lambrigtsen, B.; Li, P.; Licata, S.; Poulsen, W.; Su, H.; Tanelli, S.; Vane, D.; Vu, Q.; Goodman, H. M.; Blakeslee, R.; Conover, H.; Hall, J.; He, Y.; Regner, K.; Knapp, Ken

    2010-01-01

    The Tropical Cyclone Integrated Data Exchange and Analysis System (TC-IDEAS) is being jointly developed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) as part of NASA's Hurricane Science Research Program. The long-term goal is to create a comprehensive tropical cyclone database of satellite and airborne observations, in-situ measurements and model simulations containing parameters that pertain to the thermodynamic and microphysical structure of the storms; the air-sea interaction processes; and the large-scale environment.

  6. Impacts of the two types of El Niño on Pacific tropical cyclone activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Shibin; Huang, Fei

    2015-04-01

    It is well known that Tropical cyclone (TC) activities over the Pacific are affected by El Niño events. In most studies El Niño phenomena have been separated into east Pacific warming (EPW) and central Pacific warming (CPW) based on the location of maximum SST anomaly. Since these two kinds of El Niño have different impacts on Pacific tropical cyclone activities, this study investigates different features of TC activities and the genesis potential index (GPI) during EPW years and CPW years. Four contributing factors, i.e., the low-level absolute vorticity, the relative humidity, the potential intensity and the vertical wind shear, are examined to determine which factors are most important in causing the anomalous TC activities. Our results show that during EPW years in July-August (JA0), TC activities are more frequent with stronger intensity over the Western North Pacific (WNP) and Eastern North Pacific (ENP). The maximum anomaly center of TC activities then drifts eastward significantly in September-October (SO0). However, centers of anomalous TC activity barely change from JA0 to SO0 during CPW years. In January-February-March (JFM1) of the decaying years of warming events, TC frequency and intensity both have positive anomaly over the South Pacific. The anomalies in EPW years have larger amplitude and wider spatial distribution than those in CPW years. These anomalous activities of TC are associated with GPI anomaly and the key factors affecting GPI anomaly for each ocean basin are quite different.

  7. Disaster, Deprivation and Death: Large but delayed infant mortality in the wake of Filipino tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.; Hsiang, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    Tropical cyclones are some of the most disastrous and damaging of climate events, and estimates of their destructive potential abound in the natural and social sciences. Nonetheless, there have been few systematic estimates of cyclones' impact on children's health. This is concerning because cyclones leave in their wake a swath of asset losses and economic deprivation, both known to be strong drivers of poor health outcomes among children. In this paper we provide a household-level estimate of the effect of tropical cyclones on infant mortality in the Philippines, a country with one of the most active cyclone climatologies in the world. We reconstruct historical cyclones with detailed spatial and temporal resolution, allowing us to estimate the multi-year effects of cyclones on individuals living in specific locations. We combine the cyclone reconstruction with woman-level fertility and mortality data from four waves of the Filipino Demographic and Health Survey, providing birth histories for over 55,000 women. In multiple regressions that control for year and region fixed effects as well as intra-annual climate variation, we find that there is a pronounced and robust increase in female infant mortality among poor families in the 12-24 months after storms hit. The estimated mortality rate among this demographic subgroup is much larger than official mortality rates reported by the Filipino government immediately after storms, implying that much of a cyclone's human cost arrives well after the storm has passed. We find that high infant mortality rates are associated with declines in poor families' income and expenditures, including consumption of food and medical services, suggesting that the mechanism by which these deaths are effected may be economic deprivation. These results indicate that a major health and welfare impact of storms has been thus far overlooked, but may be easily prevented through appropriately targeted income support policies.

  8. Tropical cyclones and the flood hydrology of Puerto Rico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, J.A.; Sturdevant-Rees, P.; Baeck, M.L.; Larsen, M.C.

    2005-01-01

    Some of the largest unit discharge flood peaks in the stream gaging records of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have occurred in Puerto Rico. Many of these flood peaks are associated with tropical cyclones. Hurricane Georges, which passed directly over the island on 21-22 September 1998, produced record flood peaks at numerous USGS stations in Puerto Rico. The hydrology and hydrometeorology of extreme flood response in Puerto Rico are examined through analyses of rainfall, based on Weather Surveillance Radar - 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) radar reflectivity observations and USGS rain gage observations and discharge from USGS stream gaging stations. Peak rainfall accumulations of more than 700 mm occurred in the central mountain region of the island. The largest unit discharge flood peaks, however, were located in the eastern portion of the island in areas with smaller storm total rainfall accumulations but markedly larger rainfall rates at 5-60 min timescale. Orographic precipitation mechanisms played an important role in rainfall distribution over the island of Puerto Rico. Amplification of rainfall accumulations was associated with areas of upslope motion. Elevated low-level cloud water content in regions of upslope motion played an important role in the maximum rainfall accumulations in the central mountain region of Puerto Rico. The largest unit discharge flood peaks, however, were produced by a decaying eye wall mesovortex, which resulted in a 30-45 min period of extreme rainfall rates over the eastern portion of the island. This storm element was responsible for the record flood peak of the Rio Grande de Lo??iza. The role of terrain in development and evolution of the eye wall mesovortex is unclear but is of fundamental importance for assessing extreme flood response from the storm. Hydrologic response is examined through analyses of rainfall and discharge from five pairs of drainage basins, extending from east to west over the island. These analyses point to the

  9. tropical cyclone risk analysis: a decisive role of its track

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chelsea Nam, C.; Park, Doo-Sun R.; Ho, Chang-Hoi

    2016-04-01

    The tracks of 85 tropical cyclones (TCs) that made landfall to South Korea for the period 1979-2010 are classified into four clusters by using a fuzzy c-means clustering method. The four clusters are characterized by 1) east-short, 2) east-long, 3) west-long, and 4) west-short based on the moving routes around Korean peninsula. We conducted risk comparison analysis for these four clusters regarding their hazards, exposure, and damages. Here, hazard parameters are calculated from two different sources independently, one from the best-track data (BT) and the other from the 60 weather stations over the country (WS). The results show distinct characteristics of the four clusters in terms of the hazard parameters and economic losses (EL), suggesting that there is a clear track-dependency in the overall TC risk. It is appeared that whether there occurred an "effective collision" overweighs the intensity of the TC per se. The EL ranking did not agree with the BT parameters (maximum wind speed, central pressure, or storm radius), but matches to WS parameter (especially, daily accumulated rainfall and TC-influenced period). The west-approaching TCs (i.e. west-long and west-short clusters) generally recorded larger EL than the east-approaching TCs (i.e. east-short and east-long clusters), although the east-long clusters are the strongest in BT point of view. This can be explained through the spatial distribution of the WS parameters and the regional EL maps corresponding to it. West-approaching TCs accompanied heavy rainfall on the southern regions with the helps of the topographic effect on their tracks, and of the extended stay on the Korean Peninsula in their extratropical transition, that were not allowed to the east-approaching TCs. On the other hand, some regions had EL that are not directly proportional to the hazards, and this is partly attributed to spatial disparity in wealth and vulnerability. Correlation analysis also revealed the importance of rainfall; daily

  10. Condensed Water in Tropical Cyclone "Oliver", 8 February 1993

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pueschel, R. F.; Allen, D. A.; Black, C.; Faisant, S.; Ferry, G. V.; Howard, S. D.; Livingston, J. M.; Redemann, J.; Sorenson, C. E.; Verma, S.

    1995-01-01

    On February 8, 1993, the NASA DC-8 aircraft profiled from 10,000 to 37,000 feet (3.1-11.3 km) pressure altitude in a stratified section of tropical cyclone "Oliver" over the Coral Sea northeast of Australia. Size, shape and phase of cloud and precipitation particles were measured with a 2-D Greyscale probe. Cloud/precipitation particles changed from liquid to ice as soon as the freezing level was reached near 17,000 feet (5.2 km) pressure altitude. The cloud was completely glaciated at -5 C. There was no correlation between ice particle habit and ambient temperature. In the liquid phase, the precipitation-cloud drop concentration was 4.0 x 10(exp 3)/cu m, the geometric mean diameter D(sub g) = 0.5-0.7 mm, and the liquid water content 0.7-1.9 g m(exp-3). The largest particles anywhere in the cloud, dominated by fused dendrites at concentrations similar to that of raindrops (2.5 x 10(exp 3) m(exp -3)) but a higher condensed water content(5.4 g/cu m estimated) were found in the mixed phase; condensed water is removed very effectively from the mixed layer due to high settling velocities of the large mixed particles. The highest number concentration (4.9 x 10(exp 4)/cu m, smallest size (D(sub g) = 0.3-0.4 mm), largest surface area (up to 2.6 x 10 (exp 2) sq cm/cu m at 0.4- 1.0 g/cu m of condensate) existed in the ice phase at the coldest temperature (- 40 C) at 35,000 feet ( 10.7 km). Each cloud contained aerosol (haze particles) in addition to cloud particles. The aerosol total surface area exceeded that of the cirrus particles at the coldest temperature. Thus, aerosols must play a significant role in the upscattering of solar radiation. Light extinction (6.2/km) and backscatter (0.8/sr/km) was highest in the coldest portion of the cirrus cloud at the highest altitude.

  11. Water security and societal impacts of tropical cyclones in northwestern Mexico, 1970-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scott, C. A.; Farfan, L.

    2012-12-01

    Hydroclimatic variability is one of several potential threats to water security, defined as sustainable quantities and qualities of water for resilient societies and ecosystems in the face of uncertain global environmental change. Other threats can stem from human dimensions of global change, e.g., long-distance trade of water-intensive agricultural commodities or pollution resulting from industrial production and mining in response to rising global market demand. Drought and water scarcity are considered the principal, chronic, hydroclimatic drivers of water insecurity in arid and semi-arid regions. In these conditions, however, rainfall is both the water-supply lifeline and, in extreme events, the cause of flood hazard. In this study, we consider the monsoon-dominated Pacific coast of Mexico and assess the human impacts from tropical cyclone landfall over the past four decades (1970-2010). Storm data from the U.S. National Hurricane Center, rainfall reports from Mexico's National Meteorological Service, and indicators from an international disaster database at Belgium's Université Catholique de Louvain are used to assess the impacts of more than 30 landfall events. For the ten events with the greatest population impact, between 20,000 to 800,000 people were affected by each landfalling cyclone. Strong winds and heavy rainfall, particularly when sustained over periods of 1-3 days, result in significant property damage and loss of life. Results indicate that, in densely populated areas, excessive rainfall accumulations and high daily rates are important causes of cyclone disasters. Strengthening water security associated with extreme events requires planning via structured exchanges between scientists and decision-makers. Adaptive management that accounts for uncertainties, initiates responses, and iteratively assesses outcomes is the thrust of an emerging water-security initiative for the arid Americas that seeks to strengthen water security in northwestern

  12. Impact of cyclone Nilam on tropical lower atmospheric dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vinay Kumar, P.; Dutta, Gopa; Ratnam, M. V.; Krishna, E.; Bapiraju, B.; Rao, B. Venkateswara; Mohammad, Salauddin

    2016-08-01

    A deep depression formed over the Bay of Bengal on 28 October 2012, and developed into a cyclonic storm. After landfall near the south coast of Chennai, cyclone Nilam moved north-northwestwards. Coordinated experiments were conducted from the Indian stations of Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) and Hyderabad (17.4°N, 78.5°E) to study the modification of gravity-wave activity and turbulence by cyclone Nilam, using GPS radiosonde and mesosphere-stratosphere-troposphere radar data. The horizontal velocities underwent large changes during the closest approach of the storm to the experimental sites. Hodograph analysis revealed that inertia gravity waves (IGWs) associated with the cyclone changed their directions from northeast (control time) to northwest following the path of the cyclone. The momentum flux of IGWs and short-period gravity waves (1-8 h) enhanced prior to, and during, the passage of the storm (±0.05 m2 s-2 and ±0.3 m2 s-2, respectively), compared to the flux after its passage. The corresponding body forces underwent similar changes, with values ranging between ±2-4 m s-1 d-1 and ±12-15 m s-1 d-1. The turbulence refractivity structure constant ( C n 2 ) showed large values below 10 km before the passage of the cyclone when humidity in the region was very high. Turbulence and humidity reduced during the passage of the storm when a turbulent layer at ~17 km became more intense. Turbulence in the lower troposphere and near the tropopause became weak after the passage of the cyclone.

  13. The effects of moist entropy and moisture budgets on tropical cyclone development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Juračić, Ana; Raymond, David J.

    2016-08-01

    This paper examines the moist entropy and moisture budgets in tropical cyclones, as well as their relation to tropical cyclone's development. This analysis focuses on the dropsonde data collected during Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel project and the accompanying satellite data. Two tropical cyclones of interest are Tropical Storm Gabrielle (2013) and Hurricane Edouard (2014). There were three research flights into Gabrielle (2013), during its nondeveloping and decaying stages. Edouard (2014) was visited four times in different stages of its life cycle, twice during the intensification and twice during the decay. Also, we extended our analysis on the larger data set, consisting of 11 nonintensifying and 12 intensifying systems. Our study shows that the moist entropy tends to increase during intensification and decrease during nonintensifying stages. On the other hand, the moisture budget relates better to the tropical cyclone's current intensity than its development. The sign of the moist entropy tendency depends on the ability of surface fluxes and irreversible moist entropy generation to overcome lateral export of moist entropy and loss due to radiative cooling. Edouard's decay during the last research flight was likely the result of increasing wind shear and low sea surface temperatures. During its decay, Gabrielle had strong column-integrated lateral export of moist entropy and drying between 1 and 4 km height. This is probably the consequence of a dry environment at multiple levels, amplified by a warm and dry anomaly left behind by previous convective activity.

  14. Environmental Disaster and Economic Change: Do tropical cyclones have permanent effects on economic growth and structure?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jina, A.; von der Goltz, J.; Hsiang, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    Natural disasters have important, often devastating, effects upon economic growth and well-being. Due to this, disasters have become an active area of recent research and policy attention. However, much of this research has been narrowly focused, relying on anecdotal evidence and aggregated data to support conclusions about disaster impacts in the short-term. Employing a new global data set of tropical cyclone exposure from 1960 to 2008, we investigate in greater detail whether permanent changes in economic performance and structure can result from these extreme events in some cases. Our macro-economic analyses use the World Development Indicator dataset and have shown promising results: there are dramatic long-term economic transformations associated with tropical cyclones across a number of countries and industries. This effect is most clearly seen in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and some countries in Latin America, where negative changes in long-term growth trends are observed in the years following a large tropical cyclone. In many economies with a high exposure to tropical cyclone damage, there are noticeable structural changes within the economy. The impacts of disasters might be expressed through various economic and social channels, through direct loss of lives and infrastructure damage; for instance, the destruction of infrastructure such as ports may damage export opportunities where replacement capital is not readily available. These structural changes may have far-reaching implications for economic growth and welfare. Larger nations subjected to the impacts of tropical cyclones are thought to be able to relocate economically important activities that are damaged by cyclones, and so long-term trend changes are not observed, even for events that cause a large immediate decrease in national productivity. By investigating in a more rigorous fashion the hypothesis that the environment triggers these permanent economic changes, our work has

  15. Can existing climate models be used to study anthropogenic changes in tropical cyclone climate

    SciTech Connect

    Broccoli, A.J.; Manabe, S.

    1990-10-01

    The utility of current generation climate models for studying the influence of greenhouse warming on the tropical storm climatology is examined. A method developed to identify tropical cyclones is applied to a series of model integrations. The global distribution of tropical storms is simulated by these models in a generally realistic manner. While the model resolution is insufficient to reproduce the fine structure of tropical cyclones, the simulated storms become more realistic as resolution is increased. To obtain a preliminary estimate of the response of the tropical cyclone climatology, CO{sub 2} was doubled using models with varying cloud treatments and different horizontal resolutions. In the experiment with prescribed cloudiness, the number of storm-days, a combined measure of the number and duration of tropical storms, undergoes a statistically significant reduction of the number of storm-days is indicated in the experiment with cloud feedback. In both cases the response is independent of horizontal resolution. While the inconclusive nature of these experimental results highlights the uncertainties that remain in examining the details of greenhouse-gas induced climate change, the ability of the models to qualitatively simulate the tropical storm climatology suggests that they are appropriate tools for this problem.

  16. Interactions between tropical cyclones and mid-latitude systems in the Northeastern Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lugo, A.; Abarca, S. F.; Raga, G. B.; Vargas, D. C.

    2014-12-01

    Major challenges in tropical meteorology include the short-term forecast of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, which is defined as the maximum tangential wind. Several efforts have been made in order to reach this goal over the last decade: Among these efforts, the study of lightning in the TC inner core (the region inside a disc of 100 km radius from the center) as a proxy to deep convection, has the potential to be used as a predictor to forecast intensity (DeMaria et al, 2012, Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 1828-1842).While most studies focus their objectives in studying the lightning flash density in the inner core, we study the probability of flash occurrence for intensifying and weakening cyclones. We have analyzed the trajectories of the observed 62 tropical cyclones that developed in the basin from 2006 to 2009, and classified them into separate clusters according to their trajectories. These clusters can broadly be described as having trajectories mostly oriented: East-West, towards the central Pacific, NW far from the Mexican coast, parallel to the Mexican coast and recurving towards the Mexican coast.We estimate that probability of inner core lightning occurrence increases as cyclones intensify but the probability rapidly decrease as the systems weaken. This is valid for cyclones in most of the clusters. However, the cyclones that exhibit trajectories that recurve towards the Mexican coast, do not present the same relationship between intensity and inner-core lightning probability, these cyclones show little or no decrease in the lightning occurrence probability as they weaken.We hypothesize that one of the reasons for this anomalous behavior is likely the fact that these cyclones interact with mid-latitude systems. Mid-latitude systems are important in determining the recurving trajectory but they may also influence the TC by advecting mid-level moisture towards the TC inner core. This additional supply of moisture as the system is approaching land may enhance deep

  17. Cyclone induced Upper Ocean Cooling and Modulation of Surface Winds - A study using satellite data over tropical ocean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kvs, Badarinath; Kharol, Shailesh Kumar; Dileep, K. P.

    Tropical Cyclones are associated with intense winds, rain, storm surges and variations in cloud patterns. Accurate forecasting of both track and intensity of a tropical cyclone requires thorough understanding of meteorological processes. In this study, we evaluate the relationships between sea-surface temperature (SST) and meteorological parameters over Bay of Bengal region, India using microwave satellite remote sensing data. Most of the cyclones in this region occur during the pre-monsoon period from April-June and are associated with SST greater than 260 C. We have particularly analyzed the data from two recent cyclonic events, Mala that occurred during 24th April 2006 and Tropical Cyclone 01B that occurred during 11th May, 2003. Mala was a very severe cyclonic storm equal to category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. We used two different remote sensing data sets, the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and the NASA QuikSCAT ocean surface wind vectors to characterize the ocean-atmosphere interactions in cold SST regions formed in the trail of the above two cyclone events. Results from the satellite data analysis suggested systematic weakening of wind speed over the cold patch, along the trail of the cyclone. A cooling of around 4 to 5 degrees was observed associated with the passage of cyclone Mala. Wind speed gradually increased from 2 to 9 m/s from the center to the boundary of the cold patch and showed good correlation with SST (r=0.97). These observations have been validated with another cyclone data (Tropical Cyclone 01B) over the Bay of Bengal region that occurred during May 2003. Our results were consistent with the Wallace hypothesis that SST modulates the surface winds via stability. Mechanisms governing SST and wind speed have been highlighted utilizing data from two different tropical cyclone events and remote sensing datasets.

  18. An atlas of 1976 GEOS-3 radar altimeter data for tropical cyclone studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stanley, H. R.; Chan, B.; Givens, C.; Taylor, R.

    1979-01-01

    The means for locating and extracting GEOS-3 altimeter data acquired for the analysis of specific hurricanes, typhoons, and other tropical cyclones are presented. These data are also expected to be extremely useful in the analysis of the behavior of the altimeter instrument in the presence of severe meteorological disturbances as well as provide a data base which can be useful in the resolution of apparently anomalous geoid or sea surface characteristics. Geographic locations of 1976 tropical cyclones were correlated with the closest approaching orbits of the GEOS-3 satellite and its radar altimeter. The cyclone locations and altimeter data were correlated for the 1976 season. The area of coverage includes the northern hemisphere. This document is a sequel to NASA TM-X-69364 which covered the majority of the 1975 season.

  19. The air-sea interface and surface stress under tropical cyclones.

    PubMed

    Soloviev, Alexander V; Lukas, Roger; Donelan, Mark A; Haus, Brian K; Ginis, Isaac

    2014-01-01

    Tropical cyclone track prediction is steadily improving, while storm intensity prediction has seen little progress in the last quarter century. Important physics are not yet well understood and implemented in tropical cyclone forecast models. Missing and unresolved physics, especially at the air-sea interface, are among the factors limiting storm predictions. In a laboratory experiment and coordinated numerical simulation, conducted in this work, the microstructure of the air-water interface under hurricane force wind resembled Kelvin-Helmholtz shear instability between fluids with a large density difference. Supported by these observations, we bring forth the concept that the resulting two-phase environment suppresses short gravity-capillary waves and alters the aerodynamic properties of the sea surface. The unified wave-form and two-phase parameterization model shows the well-known increase of the drag coefficient (Cd) with wind speed, up to ~30 ms(-1). Around 60 ms(-1), the new parameterization predicts a local peak of Ck/Cd, under constant enthalpy exchange coefficient Ck. This peak may explain rapid intensification of some storms to major tropical cyclones and the previously reported local peak of lifetime maximum intensity (bimodal distribution) in the best-track records. The bimodal distribution of maximum lifetime intensity, however, can also be explained by environmental parameters of tropical cyclones alone. PMID:24930493

  20. An Estimate of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2008

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2008-01-01

    The statistics of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the interval 1945-2007 are examined and estimates are given for the frequencies of occurrence of the number of tropical cyclones, number of hurricanes, number of major hurricanes, number of category 4/5 hurricanes, and number of U.S. land-falling hurricanes for the 2008 hurricane season. Also examined are the variations of peak wind speed, average peak wind speed per storm, lowest pressure, average lowest pressure per storm, recurrence rate and duration of extreme events (El Nino and La Nina), the variation of 10-yr moving averages of parametric first differences, and the association of decadal averages of frequencies of occurrence of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones against decadal averages of Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, annual mean temperature (found to be extremely important for number of tropical cyclones and number of hurricanes). Because the 2008 hurricane season seems destined to be one that is non-El Nino-related and is a post-1995 season, estimates of the frequencies of occurrence for the various subsets of storms should be above long-term averages.

  1. An explicit three-dimensional nonhydrostatic numerical simulation of a tropical cyclone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tripoli, G. J.

    1992-01-01

    A nonhydrostatic numerical simulation of a tropical cyclone is performed with explicit representation of cumulus on a meso-beta scale grid and for a brief period on a meso-gamma scale grid. Individual cumulus plumes are represented by a combination of explicit resolution and a 1.5 level closure predicting turbulent kinetic energy (TKE).

  2. Impacts and recovery from severe tropical cyclone Yasi on the Great Barrier Reef.

    PubMed

    Beeden, Roger; Maynard, Jeffrey; Puotinen, Marjetta; Marshall, Paul; Dryden, Jen; Goldberg, Jeremy; Williams, Gareth

    2015-01-01

    Full recovery of coral reefs from tropical cyclone (TC) damage can take decades, making cyclones a major driver of habitat condition where they occur regularly. Since 1985, 44 TCs generated gale force winds (≥17 metres/second) within the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP). Of the hurricane strength TCs (≥H1-Saffir Simpson scale; ≥ category 3 Australian scale), TC Yasi (February, 2011) was the largest. In the weeks after TC Yasi crossed the GBRMP, participating researchers, managers and rangers assessed the extent and severity of reef damage via 841 Reef Health and Impact Surveys at 70 reefs. Records were scaled into five damage levels representing increasingly widespread colony-level damage (1, 2, 3) and reef structural damage (4, 5). Average damage severity was significantly affected by direction (north vs south of the cyclone track), reef shelf position (mid-shelf vs outer-shelf) and habitat type. More outer-shelf reefs suffered structural damage than mid-shelf reefs within 150 km of the track. Structural damage spanned a greater latitudinal range for mid-shelf reefs than outer-shelf reefs (400 vs 300 km). Structural damage was patchily distributed at all distances, but more so as distance from the track increased. Damage extended much further from the track than during other recent intense cyclones that had smaller circulation sizes. Just over 15% (3,834 km2) of the total reef area of the GBRMP is estimated to have sustained some level of coral damage, with ~4% (949 km2) sustaining a degree of structural damage. TC Yasi likely caused the greatest loss of coral cover on the GBR in a 24-hour period since 1985. Severely impacted reefs have started to recover; coral cover increased an average of 4% between 2011 and 2013 at re-surveyed reefs. The in situ assessment of impacts described here is the largest in scale ever conducted on the Great Barrier Reef following a reef health disturbance. PMID:25874718

  3. Impacts and Recovery from Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi on the Great Barrier Reef

    PubMed Central

    Beeden, Roger; Maynard, Jeffrey; Puotinen, Marjetta; Marshall, Paul; Dryden, Jen; Goldberg, Jeremy; Williams, Gareth

    2015-01-01

    Full recovery of coral reefs from tropical cyclone (TC) damage can take decades, making cyclones a major driver of habitat condition where they occur regularly. Since 1985, 44 TCs generated gale force winds (≥17 metres/second) within the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP). Of the hurricane strength TCs (≥H1—Saffir Simpson scale; ≥ category 3 Australian scale), TC Yasi (February, 2011) was the largest. In the weeks after TC Yasi crossed the GBRMP, participating researchers, managers and rangers assessed the extent and severity of reef damage via 841 Reef Health and Impact Surveys at 70 reefs. Records were scaled into five damage levels representing increasingly widespread colony-level damage (1, 2, 3) and reef structural damage (4, 5). Average damage severity was significantly affected by direction (north vs south of the cyclone track), reef shelf position (mid-shelf vs outer-shelf) and habitat type. More outer-shelf reefs suffered structural damage than mid-shelf reefs within 150 km of the track. Structural damage spanned a greater latitudinal range for mid-shelf reefs than outer-shelf reefs (400 vs 300 km). Structural damage was patchily distributed at all distances, but more so as distance from the track increased. Damage extended much further from the track than during other recent intense cyclones that had smaller circulation sizes. Just over 15% (3,834 km2) of the total reef area of the GBRMP is estimated to have sustained some level of coral damage, with ~4% (949 km2) sustaining a degree of structural damage. TC Yasi likely caused the greatest loss of coral cover on the GBR in a 24-hour period since 1985. Severely impacted reefs have started to recover; coral cover increased an average of 4% between 2011 and 2013 at re-surveyed reefs. The in situ assessment of impacts described here is the largest in scale ever conducted on the Great Barrier Reef following a reef health disturbance. PMID:25874718

  4. The Impact of Canonical and Non-canonical El Niño on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity: High-resolution Tropical Channel Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patricola, C. M.; Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.

    2013-12-01

    Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability during the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity by modulating vertical wind shear and tropospheric temperature in the tropical Atlantic, with warmer than average SST during El Niño suppressing Atlantic tropical cyclones. The location of maximum SST warming during El Niño varies from the East Pacific (canonical) to Central Pacific (non-canonical/Modoki). This study investigates how the location and magnitude of maximum tropical Pacific warming impacts Atlantic tropical cyclones, and through what mechanisms. Climate simulations are performed to supplement observationally based studies, which yield conflicting results and rely on a relatively short data record that is complicated by factors other than ENSO, such as Atlantic SST variability. The simulations are run with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model configured as a tropical channel model at a relatively fine horizontal resolution of 27 km compared to the current generation of global climate models that typically use a 50 - 100 km grid. Monthly climatological SST is prescribed in the control simulation, and mechanistic experiments are forced by tropical Pacific SST patterns characteristic of Central Pacific and East Pacific El Niño. Seasonal accumulated cyclone energy is used to evaluate the response in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity to Central and East Pacific El Niño, and the response in atmospheric conditions relevant for tropical cyclones is diagnosed using a genesis potential index.

  5. Investigating Sensitivity to Saharan Dust in Tropical Cyclone Formation Using Nasa's Adjoint Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holdaway, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    As tropical cyclones develop from easterly waves coming of the coast of Africa they interact with dust from the Sahara desert. There is a long standing debate over whether this dust inhibits or advances the developing storm and how much influence it has. Dust can surround the storm and absorb incoming solar radiation, cooling the air below. As a result an energy source for the system is potentially diminished, inhibiting growth of the storm. Alternatively dust may interact with clouds through micro-physical processes, for example by causing more moisture to condense, potentially increasing the strength. As a result of climate change, concentrations and amount of dust in the atmosphere will likely change. It it is important to properly understand its effect on tropical storm formation. The adjoint of an atmospheric general circulation model provides a very powerful tool for investigating sensitivity to initial conditions. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has recently developed an adjoint version of the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) dynamical core, convection scheme, cloud model and radiation schemes. This is extended so that the interaction between dust and radiation is also accounted for in the adjoint model. This provides a framework for examining the sensitivity to dust in the initial conditions. Specifically the set up allows for an investigation into the extent to which dust affects cyclone strength through absorption of radiation. In this work we investigate the validity of using an adjoint model for examining sensitivity to dust in hurricane formation. We present sensitivity results for a number of systems that developed during the Atlantic hurricane season of 2006. During this period there was a significant outbreak of Saharan dust and it is has been argued that this outbreak was responsible for the relatively calm season. This period was also covered by an extensive observation campaign. It is shown that the

  6. Investigating sensitivity to Saharan dust in tropical cyclone formation using NASA's adjoint model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holdaway, Daniel

    2015-04-01

    As tropical cyclones develop from easterly waves coming off the coast of Africa they interact with dust from the Sahara desert. There is a long standing debate over whether this dust inhibits or advances the developing storm and how much influence it has. Dust can surround the storm and absorb incoming solar radiation, cooling the air below. As a result an energy source for the system is potentially diminished, inhibiting growth of the storm. Alternatively dust may interact with clouds through micro-physical processes, for example by causing more moisture to condense, potentially increasing the strength. As a result of climate change, concentrations and amount of dust in the atmosphere will likely change. It it is important to properly understand its effect on tropical storm formation. The adjoint of an atmospheric general circulation model provides a very powerful tool for investigating sensitivity to initial conditions. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has recently developed an adjoint version of the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) dynamical core, convection scheme, cloud model and radiation schemes. This is extended so that the interaction between dust and radiation is also accounted for in the adjoint model. This provides a framework for examining the sensitivity to dust in the initial conditions. Specifically the set up allows for an investigation into the extent to which dust affects cyclone strength through absorption of radiation. In this work we investigate the validity of using an adjoint model for examining sensitivity to dust in hurricane formation. We present sensitivity results for a number of systems that developed during the Atlantic hurricane season of 2006. During this period there was a significant outbreak of Saharan dust and it is has been argued that this outbreak was responsible for the relatively calm season. This period was also covered by an extensive observation campaign. It is shown that the

  7. Australian tropical cyclone activity lower than at any time over the past 550-1,500 years.

    PubMed

    Haig, Jordahna; Nott, Jonathan; Reichart, Gert-Jan

    2014-01-30

    The assessment of changes in tropical cyclone activity within the context of anthropogenically influenced climate change has been limited by the short temporal resolution of the instrumental tropical cyclone record (less than 50 years). Furthermore, controversy exists regarding the robustness of the observational record, especially before 1990. Here we show, on the basis of a new tropical cyclone activity index (CAI), that the present low levels of storm activity on the mid west and northeast coasts of Australia are unprecedented over the past 550 to 1,500 years. The CAI allows for a direct comparison between the modern instrumental record and long-term palaeotempest (prehistoric tropical cyclone) records derived from the (18)O/(16)O ratio of seasonally accreting carbonate layers of actively growing stalagmites. Our results reveal a repeated multicentennial cycle of tropical cyclone activity, the most recent of which commenced around AD 1700. The present cycle includes a sharp decrease in activity after 1960 in Western Australia. This is in contrast to the increasing frequency and destructiveness of Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclones since 1970 in the Atlantic Ocean and the western North Pacific Ocean. Other studies project a decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones towards the end of the twenty-first century in the southwest Pacific, southern Indian and Australian regions. Our results, although based on a limited record, suggest that this may be occurring much earlier than expected. PMID:24476890

  8. Australian tropical cyclone activity lower than at any time over the past 550-1,500 years.

    PubMed

    Haig, Jordahna; Nott, Jonathan; Reichart, Gert-Jan

    2014-01-30

    The assessment of changes in tropical cyclone activity within the context of anthropogenically influenced climate change has been limited by the short temporal resolution of the instrumental tropical cyclone record (less than 50 years). Furthermore, controversy exists regarding the robustness of the observational record, especially before 1990. Here we show, on the basis of a new tropical cyclone activity index (CAI), that the present low levels of storm activity on the mid west and northeast coasts of Australia are unprecedented over the past 550 to 1,500 years. The CAI allows for a direct comparison between the modern instrumental record and long-term palaeotempest (prehistoric tropical cyclone) records derived from the (18)O/(16)O ratio of seasonally accreting carbonate layers of actively growing stalagmites. Our results reveal a repeated multicentennial cycle of tropical cyclone activity, the most recent of which commenced around AD 1700. The present cycle includes a sharp decrease in activity after 1960 in Western Australia. This is in contrast to the increasing frequency and destructiveness of Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclones since 1970 in the Atlantic Ocean and the western North Pacific Ocean. Other studies project a decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones towards the end of the twenty-first century in the southwest Pacific, southern Indian and Australian regions. Our results, although based on a limited record, suggest that this may be occurring much earlier than expected.

  9. Past, Present, and Future Threat of Tropical Cyclones and Coastal Flooding in New York City

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reed, A. J.; Mann, M. E.; Emanuel, K.; Lin, N.; Horton, B.; Kemp, A.; Alley, R. B.; Kopp, R. E.; Pollard, D.; Donnelly, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States' Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges associated with tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea-levels on which those surges occur. We seek to analyze the risk of future coastal inundation for New York City in the context of a long-term historical analysis of storm surge events and sea level rise. In order to overcome the limitation of a short and incomplete observational record of tropical cyclones in the north Atlantic, we use proxy sea-level records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the north Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from AD 850 to AD 2005. Combining results from a storm surge model with relative sea-level data, we find that mean flood heights for the region have increased by ~1.24 m from ~AD 850 to the present, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. In addition, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surge events for the New York City region. These results indicate that storm surge risk for the New York City region has increased considerably over the past millennium; as sea-levels continue to rise and storms possibly become more active, the risk of coastal inundation for the region is also likely to increase significantly in coming centuries. Thus, we combine future sea level rise projections with modeled storm surge heights for synthetic tropical cyclones downscaled from CMIP5 models. Results from this work will allow us to investigate the potential for future coastal inundation in the New York City region in the context of our historical analysis.

  10. Assessing the importance of tropical cyclones on continental margin sedimentation in the Mississippi delta region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dail, Michael. B.; Reide Corbett, D.; Walsh, J. P.

    2007-08-01

    Recent research on the Mississippi margin indicates notable seasonal variation in seabed dynamics. During years with minimal tropical-system activity, sediments initially deposited from late spring to early fall are remobilized by wind-driven currents and wave energy during extra-tropical weather systems in the winter. This research reveals the profound significance of tropical cyclones on Louisiana Shelf sedimentation. The amount of material delivered to and advected across the shelf by recent tropical cyclones is considerably larger than that related to winter storm systems. In Fall 2004, the river-dominated shelf of Louisiana was impacted by three tropical systems in less than a month, including Hurricane Ivan. Ivan, with maximum sustained winds in excess of 74 m s -1 (144 knots) and a minimum measured central pressure of 910 mbar, was the eighth most intense Atlantic hurricane on record at the time. In order to assess the impact these tropical systems had on the continental margin west of the Mississippi delta, seabed samples were collected from box cores in October 2004 and analyzed for particle-reactive radionuclides 234Th, 7Be, and 210Pb. Radiochemical data and observations from X-radiographs indicate event-driven sediment deposits ranged from 4 to 30 cm on the shelf and 2-6 cm in the Mississippi Canyon. These deposits exhibit distinct radiochemical signatures and differ visually and texturally from the underlying sediment. The well-developed physical stratification and graded nature of the deposits observed in core X-radiographs suggests that the sediment could have been deposited from sediment-gravity flows. Inventories of 7Be and 7Be/ 234Th xs ratios reveal this series of cyclones transported considerably more material to the outer shelf and slope than periods of minimal tropical-system activity. When compared to seasonal depositional rates created by winter storms, tropical-cyclone-related event deposits on the middle and outer shelf are up to an order

  11. Stable isotope anatomy of tropical cyclone Ita, North-Eastern Australia, April 2014.

    PubMed

    Munksgaard, Niels C; Zwart, Costijn; Kurita, Naoyuki; Bass, Adrian; Nott, Jon; Bird, Michael I

    2015-01-01

    The isotope signatures registered in speleothems during tropical cyclones (TC) provides information about the frequency and intensity of past TCs but the precise relationship between isotopic composition and the meteorology of TCs remain uncertain. Here we present continuous δ18O and δ2H data in rainfall and water vapour, as well as in discrete rainfall samples, during the passage of TC Ita and relate the evolution in isotopic compositions to local and synoptic scale meteorological observations. High-resolution data revealed a close relationship between isotopic compositions and cyclonic features such as spiral rainbands, periods of stratiform rainfall and the arrival of subtropical and tropical air masses with changing oceanic and continental moisture sources. The isotopic compositions in discrete rainfall samples were remarkably constant along the ~450 km overland path of the cyclone when taking into account the direction and distance to the eye of the cyclone at each sampling time. Near simultaneous variations in δ18O and δ2H values in rainfall and vapour and a near-equilibrium rainfall-vapour isotope fractionation indicates strong isotopic exchange between rainfall and surface inflow of vapour during the approach of the cyclone. In contrast, after the passage of spiral rainbands close to the eye of the cyclone, different moisture sources for rainfall and vapour are reflected in diverging d-excess values. High-resolution isotope studies of modern TCs refine the interpretation of stable isotope signatures found in speleothems and other paleo archives and should aim to further investigate the influence of cyclone intensity and longevity on the isotopic composition of associated rainfall.

  12. Stable Isotope Anatomy of Tropical Cyclone Ita, North-Eastern Australia, April 2014

    PubMed Central

    Munksgaard, Niels C.; Zwart, Costijn; Kurita, Naoyuki; Bass, Adrian; Nott, Jon; Bird, Michael I.

    2015-01-01

    The isotope signatures registered in speleothems during tropical cyclones (TC) provides information about the frequency and intensity of past TCs but the precise relationship between isotopic composition and the meteorology of TCs remain uncertain. Here we present continuous δ18O and δ2H data in rainfall and water vapour, as well as in discrete rainfall samples, during the passage of TC Ita and relate the evolution in isotopic compositions to local and synoptic scale meteorological observations. High-resolution data revealed a close relationship between isotopic compositions and cyclonic features such as spiral rainbands, periods of stratiform rainfall and the arrival of subtropical and tropical air masses with changing oceanic and continental moisture sources. The isotopic compositions in discrete rainfall samples were remarkably constant along the ~450 km overland path of the cyclone when taking into account the direction and distance to the eye of the cyclone at each sampling time. Near simultaneous variations in δ18O and δ2H values in rainfall and vapour and a near-equilibrium rainfall-vapour isotope fractionation indicates strong isotopic exchange between rainfall and surface inflow of vapour during the approach of the cyclone. In contrast, after the passage of spiral rainbands close to the eye of the cyclone, different moisture sources for rainfall and vapour are reflected in diverging d-excess values. High-resolution isotope studies of modern TCs refine the interpretation of stable isotope signatures found in speleothems and other paleo archives and should aim to further investigate the influence of cyclone intensity and longevity on the isotopic composition of associated rainfall. PMID:25742628

  13. Potential Application of Airborne Passive Microwave Observations for Monitoring Inland Flooding Caused by Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hood, Robbie E.; Radley, C.D.; LaFontaine, F.J.

    2008-01-01

    Inland flooding from tropical cyclones can be a significant factor in storm-related deaths in the United States and other countries. Information collected during NASA tropical cyclone field studies suggest surface water and flooding induced by tropical cyclone precipitation can be detected and therefore monitored using passive microwave airborne radiometers. In particular, the 10.7 GHz frequency of the NASA Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) flown on the NASA ER-2 has demonstrated high resolution detection of anomalous surface water and flooding in numerous situations. This presentation will highlight the analysis of three cases utilizing primarily satellite and airborne radiometer data. Radiometer data from the 1998 Third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3) are utilized to detect surface water during landfalling Hurricane Georges in both the Dominican Republic and Louisiana. A third case is landfalling Tropical Storm Gert in Eastern Mexico during the Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) experiment in 2005. AMPR data are compared to topographic data and vegetation indices to evaluate the significance of the surface water signature visible in the 10.7 GHz information. The results of this study suggest the benefit of an aircraft 10 GHz radiometer to provide real-time observations of surface water conditions as part of a multi-sensor flood monitoring network.

  14. On the interaction of Tropical Cyclone Flossie and emissions from Hawaii's Kilauea volcano

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pattantyus, Andre; Businger, Steven

    2014-06-01

    On 29 July 2013, Tropical Storm Flossie passed the Hawaiian Islands. This is the first interaction between an active, vigorously degassing volcano and a tropical cyclone captured by a vog (volcanic smog) dispersion model run over the Hawaiian Islands since operational simulations began in 2010, providing a unique opportunity to analyze the influence of robust volcanic emissions entrained into a tropical cyclone. Results from the vog dispersion model are compared with Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite observations, lightning data from Vaisala's Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360), and the National Weather Service Weather Surveillance Radar, 1988 Dual-Polarmetric Doppler radar to investigate the effect of volcanic emissions on the storm. Observations and model results suggest that aerosol loading resulted in deep convection and glaciation which in turn enhanced charge separation and promoted active lightning.

  15. Interannual variability of tropical cyclone activity in the southern South China Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zuki, Zabani M.; Lupo, Anthony R.

    2008-03-01

    A study of tropical storm activity in the southern South China Sea region was carried out for the period of 1960 to 2006 using data obtained from the UNISYS website archive, which was provided to them from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JWTC) best track data. This study was motivated by two particularly costly storms that impacted Malaysia during the 1996-2001 period. This study demonstrated that November and December were the most active months for tropical cyclone activity in this region. A majority of these storms attained tropical storm intensity. Also, a majority of the tropical cyclones originated within the study area near Malaysia as opposed to moving into the area. The long-term trend showed that there has been a slight increase in tropical cyclone activity in the region, but the trend was not statistically significant. A study of the interannual variability revealed that there was more (less) tropical cyclone activity in the region during La Niña (El Niño) years. Longer-term variability, such as that related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, was not found in the analysis here. Using spectral methods confirms that there was significant El Niño-related variability in climatological quantities such as monthly sea surface temperatures or pressures. Finally, the background climatological state was examined in order to determine whether or not the atmosphere in the region was more conducive to tropical cyclone formation or maintenance during active years. It was found that the most active years were associated with warmer SSTs in the study region, relatively weak 200-850 hPa wind shear, a warm-core structure, more water vapor, and more cyclonic low-level relative vorticity, and these were all La Niña-type years. Nonactive years were associated with weaker wind shear, less water vapor, and a more anticyclonic (vorticity) background, regardless of whether the SSTs were warmer or cooler, and most of these were El Niño-type years.

  16. Tropical Cyclone Activities in the WNP Regions associated with CT/WP El Nino

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, J. S.; Moon, Y. I.; Choi, J. H.

    2015-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) occurring in the Western North Pacific (WNP) serve as a hydrometeorological factor that affects change in the precipitation pattern during the summer in East Asia. While the influence of El Niño on WNP TCs has been investigated extensively, relatively little research has been conducted to quantify the impacts of CT/WP El Niño on Korea-affected TC activities and regional variability in TC-induced precipitation over the Korean peninsula. The result of analyzing the large-scale environments associated with CT/WP El Nino was revealed that atmosphere-ocean environment of large-scale in WP El Nino years offers better conditions for typhoon development more than that in CT El Nino years. In particular, comparison of the SST, a direct heat source of typhoon, with the atmosphere environment showed a remarkable difference. The result of this study relies on short observations and samples relatively, but it was found that KP-affected TC activities and changes in rainfalls of TCs through CT/WP El Nino was sensitively occurred, and it is expected to reduce the damages caused by TCs and response properly to each basin and be used to establish the ways of adjustment in a changing climate.

  17. Tropical Cyclones-Ocean Interactions in a High Resolution GCM: the Role of the Coupling Frequency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scoccimarro, E.; Fogli, P. G.; Masina, S.; Gualdi, S.; Navarra, A.

    2015-12-01

    The interaction between Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and ocean is a major mechanism responsible for energy exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean. TCs affect the thermal and dynamical structure of the ocean, but the magnitude of the impact is still uncertain. Very few CMIP5 models demonstrated ability in representing TCs, mainly due to their horizontal resolution. We aim to improve TCs representation in next CMIPs experiments through the new CMCC-CESM-NEMO General Circulation Model, having a horizontal resolution of ¼ degree in both atmospheric and ocean components. The model is capable to represent realistically TCs up to Cat-4 Typhoons. The wind structure associated with TCs is responsible for two important atmosphere-ocean feedbacks: the first feedback — positive — is driven by the latent heat associated with the enhanced evaporation rate and leads to an increase of the available energy for TC. The second feedback — negative — is due to the cold water upwelling induced by the increased wind stress at the ocean surface and by the shear-induced mixing at the base of the mixed layer. The second feedback is responsible for a significant cooling of the sea surface, leading to a weakening of the cyclone intensity due to the reduction of the total heat flux into the atmosphere. Furthermore TC intensification, intensity, and lifetime strongly depend on their transitional speed. A good representation of the TC-Ocean interaction strongly depends on the coupling frequency between the atmospheric and the ocean components, especially when simulating fast moving TCs. In this work, we investigate the role of the coupling frequency in representing the two mentioned feedbacks using the new fully coupled General Circulation Model developed at CMCC.

  18. Cloud Evolution during Tropical Cyclone Formation as Revealed by TRMM PR

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fritz, C.; Wang, Z.; Nesbitt, S. W.; Dunkerton, T. J.

    2015-12-01

    To understand the cloud evolution during tropical cyclone formation, cloud features for more than 100 named tropical cyclones over the Atlantic are examined from the tropical wave to the tropical cyclone stage using the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR). We focus on a time window from 3 days before genesis to 1 day after genesis, where the diagnoses for the pre-genesis evolution are carried out in the framework of the marsupial paradigm and the post-genesis analysis using the NHC best-tracks. The 20 dBZ echo-top height is used in combination with the near surface rain rate to identify the different types of convection: i) shallow convection; ii) mid-level convection and iii) deep convection. The frequency of occurrence for each precipitation type is calculated, and the relative contributions of different types of precipitation to the total rain rate are examined with respect to the center. Precipitation was found to increase in coverage and intensity near the wave-pouch center approaching genesis. Stratiform precipitation is prevalent from day -3 to day +1, but convective precipitation persistently increases near the inner-core. Mid-level convection occurs more frequently than deep convection from day -3 to day +1 and makes a larger contribution to the total precipitation than deep convection. It is also shown that stratiform precipitation, mid-level convection and deep convection all contribute to the substantial increase in rain-rate.

  19. Analysis of cross-hemispheric influences on the monsoon trough and tropical cyclone genesis during FGGE and diurnal subsidence differences

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gray, W. M.; Lee, C. S.

    1985-01-01

    For a number of years our project has been studying the cross-equatorial (winter to summer hemisphere) processs that can lead to the day-to-day alterations in the strength of the monsoon trough. These processes are also related to the genesis and intensification of tropical storms. The cross-hemispheric processes that occurred during the FGGE year are currently being studied with the use of the ECMWF analysis. How the winter hemisphere can affect low level cold surge penetration across the equator following cold front passage, and how upper tropospheric anticyclones of the winter hemisphere can produce an intensification of a tropical cyclone of the opposite hemisphere is described. ECMWF analysis of the 00Z versus 12Z diurnal difference in the clear region (10 deg diameter) subsidence occurring in the subtropical Pacific Ocean during FGGE is presented. The general reliability of the FGGE ECMWF analysis with regard to the specification of the large scale structure of tropical cyclones is shown.

  20. A 3-D Look at Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine

    NASA Video Gallery

    This 3-D flyby animation of GPM imagery shows Post-Tropical Storm Hermine on Sept. 6. Rain was falling at a rate of over 1.1 inches (27 mm) per hour between the Atlantic coast and Hermine's center ...

  1. Satellite Movie Shows Three Tropical Cyclones in Eastern Pacific

    NASA Video Gallery

    This animation of NOAA's GOES-Wast satellite imagery from August 2 through 4 shows the movement of Tropical Depression Genevieve (left) southwest of Hawaii, Hurricane Iselle (center) in the Eastern...

  2. Lightning activity variation during the evolution of tropical cyclones in the southwest Pacific region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chandra, A.; Kumar, S.; Kumar, A.

    2015-12-01

    The South Pacific Island countries are vulnerable to natural hazards which cause devastating effects on infrastructure, crops and at times loss of lives and many others. Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one type of natural hazard experienced by Pacific Island countries (PICs). The South Pacific region has two seasons, namely: the cyclone season, running from November to April, and the non-cyclone season, running from May to October. Tropical cyclones are associated with strong winds, rainfall, and thunderstorms generating strong lightning discharges. The analysis of lightning data obtained from the World Wide Lightning Locations Network for the southwest Pacific region, defined as the region bounded between geographic coordinates, latitudes 0 - 40°S, longitudes 135°E - 120°W, during 2013 clearly shows the lightning activity to be higher during the cyclone season due to increased convective activity. The change in the lightning activity with the intensity of 41 TCs of categories 2 to 5 occurring in the southwest Pacific region has been analysed for the years 2005 to 2013. The intensity measurements, as determined by maximum sustained winds and the lightning activity, as determined by flash counts were studied during the stages of evolution of these TCs. Taking into account the lag between peak lightning activity and peak maximum sustained wind, the two quantities; lightning activity and intensity for individual TCs were correlated. Square 10° grid sizes were used along with radial sections to quantify lightning. We quantify lightning occurrences in three distinct sections of the cyclone (eyewall, inner and outer rainbands) to clearly show the lightning characteristics within these different regions. Lightning activity is seen to be greatly variable between different storms, however we do observe lightning outbreaks in the eyewall prior to the intensification of the storm.

  3. Electric Field Profiles over Hurricanes, Tropical Cyclones, and Thunderstorms with an Instrumented ER-2 Aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mach, Doug M.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Bateman, Monte G.; Bailey, Jeff C.

    2007-01-01

    Over the past several years, we have flown a set of calibrated electric field meters (FMs) on the NASA high altitude ER-2 aircraft over oceanic and landbased storms in a number of locations. These included tropical oceanic cyclones and hurricanes in the Caribbean and Atlantic ocean during the Third and Fourth Convection And Moisture EXperiment (CAMEX-3,1998; CAMEX-4, 2001), thunderstorms in Florida during the TExas FLorida UNderflight (TEFLUN, 1998) experiment, tropical thunderstorms in Brazil during the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (TRMM LBA, 1999), and finally, hurricanes and tropical cyclones in the Caribbean and Western Pacific and thunderstorms in Central America during the Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP, 2005) mission. Between these various missions we have well over 50 sorties that provide a unique insights on the different electrical environment, evolution and activity occurring in and around these various types of storms. In general, the electric fields over the tropical oceanic storms and hurricanes were less than a few kilovolts per meter at the ER-2 altitude, while the lightning rates were low. Land-based thunderstorms often produced high lightning activity and correspondingly higher electric fields.

  4. Appraisal of recent theories to understand cyclogenesis pathways of tropical cyclone Madi (2013)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajasree, V. P. M.; Kesarkar, Amit P.; Bhate, Jyoti N.; Umakanth, U.; Singh, Vikas; Harish Varma, T.

    2016-08-01

    The present study aims to examine the new understanding of cyclogenesis by analyzing the genesis sequence of formation of a very severe cyclonic storm Madi (6-13 December 2013) that occurred over the Bay of Bengal. We have generated a high-resolution (18 km, 6 km, and 2 km) analysis using three-dimensional variational data assimilation technique and Weather Research and Forecasting model. The genesis sequence of Madi cyclone is analyzed using the concepts in the marsupial theory and other theories of tropical cyclone formation. Major results are as follows: the developed analysis is found useful for tracking the movement of westward moving parent disturbance from 15 days prior to the genesis; identifying developed pouch region in the Lagrangian frame of reference; understanding the evolution of the pouch and convection within the pouch region and for the study of intensification inside the pouch region. Also, large-scale priming of environment concurs with the hypotheses of the marsupial theory of tropical cyclogenesis. The analysis of dynamical and thermodynamical processes within the pouch region showed gradual moistening, uplifting of moisture, diabatic heating causing buoyant convection in the vorticity-rich environment followed by vortex tube stretching, development of convection, heavy precipitation, strengthening of lower level convergence, and hence spin-up during a day or two preceding the genesis of Madi cyclone. In general, it is concluded that intensification within pouch region during the cyclogenesis phase followed the marsupial paradigm and bottom-up mechanism.

  5. Fujiwhara interaction of tropical cyclone scale vortices using a weighted residual collocation method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walsh, Raymond P.; Alam, Jahrul M.

    2016-09-01

    The fundamental interaction between tropical cyclones was investigated through a series of water tank experiements by Fujiwhara [20, 21, 22]. However, a complete understanding of tropical cyclones remains an open research challenge although there have been numerous investigations through measurments with aircrafts/satellites, as well as with numerical simulations. This article presents a computational model for simulating the interaction between cyclones. The proposed numerical method is presented briefly, where the time integration is performed by projecting the discrete system onto a Krylov subspace. The method filters the large scale fluid dynamics using a multiresolution approximation, and the unresolved dynamics is modeled with a Smagorinsky type subgrid scale parameterization scheme. Numerical experiments with Fujiwhara interactions are considered to verify modeling accuracy. An excellent agreement between the present simulation and a reference simulation at Re = 5000 has been demonstrated. At Re = 37440, the kinetic energy of cyclones is seen consolidated into larger scales with concurrent enstrophy cascade, suggesting a steady increase of energy containing scales, a phenomena that is typical in two-dimensional turbulence theory. The primary results of this article suggest a novel avenue for addressing some of the computational challenges of mesoscale atmospheric circulations.

  6. An atlas of 1977 and 1978 GEOS-3 radar altimeter data for tropical cyclone studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stanley, H. R.; Taylor, R. L.

    1980-01-01

    All of the GEOS 3 satellite altimeter schedule information were collected with all of the available 1977 and 1978 tropical cyclone positional information. The time period covers from March 23, 1977 through Nov. 23, 1978. The geographical region includes all ocean area north of the equator divided into the following operational areas: the Atlantic area (which includes the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico); the eastern Pacific area; the central and western Pacific area; and the Indian Ocean area. All available source material concerning tropical cyclones was collected. The date/time/location information was extracted for each disturbance. This information was compared with the GEOS 3 altimeter ON/OFF history information to determine the existence of any altimeter data close enough in both time and location to make the data potentially useful for further study (the very liberal criteria used was time less than 24 hours and location within 25 degrees). Geographic plots (cyclone versus GEOS 3 orbit track) were produced for all of the events found showing the approximate location of the cyclone and the GEOS 3 orbit traces for the full day.

  7. Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2014

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2016-01-01

    This Technical Publication (TP) represents an extension of previous work concerning the tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin during the weather satellite era, 1960-2014, in particular, that of an article published in The Journal of the Alabama Academy of Science. With the launch of the TIROS-1 polar-orbiting satellite in April 1960, a new era of global weather observation and monitoring began. Prior to this, the conditions of the North Atlantic basin were determined only from ship reports, island reports, and long-range aircraft reconnaissance. Consequently, storms that formed far from land, away from shipping lanes, and beyond the reach of aircraft possibly could be missed altogether, thereby leading to an underestimate of the true number of tropical cyclones forming in the basin. Additionally, new analysis techniques have come into use which sometimes has led to the inclusion of one or more storms at the end of a nominal hurricane season that otherwise would not have been included. In this TP, examined are the yearly (or seasonal) and 10-year moving average (10-year moving average) values of the (1) first storm day (FSD), last storm day (LSD), and length of season (LOS); (2) frequencies of tropical cyclones (by class); (3) average peak 1-minute sustained wind speed () and average lowest pressure (); (4) average genesis location in terms of north latitudinal () and west longitudinal () positions; (5) sum and average power dissipation index (); (6) sum and average accumulated cyclone energy (); (7) sum and average number of storm days (); (8) sum of the number of hurricane days (NHD) and number of major hurricane days (NMHD); (9) net tropical cyclone activity index (NTCA); (10) largest individual storm (LIS) PWS, LP, PDI, ACE, NSD, NHD, NMHD; and (11) number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes (N4/5). Also examined are the December-May (D-M) and June-November (J-N) averages and 10-year moving average values of

  8. Lower-stratospheric/upper-tropospheric exchange processes associated with tropical cyclones as observed by TOMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodgers, Edward B.

    1987-01-01

    Total ozone associated with western Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclones at various stages of development were analyzed for the purpose of monitoring storm intensity and/or intensity changes. The analysis is based on total ozone measurements from the Nimbus 7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS). Since ozone may be considered a passive tracer in the lower stratosphere and the ozone gradients are strongest just above the tropopause, fluctuations of total ozone are due to variations in tropopause height and/or changes in concentration within the column caused by vertical and horizontal advection. In the subtropical northern Pacific during August and September 1981, a negative correlation greater than 0.60 was found between upper-tropospheric geopotential heights near the tropopause level and total ozone. Preliminary results suggest that TOMS can be used to resolve the upper-troposphere structure in and around tropical cyclones and can provide an indication of those processes that help to intensify and maintain these storms.

  9. On the potential use of satellite sounder data in forecasting tropical cyclone motion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kidder, S. Q.; Shyu, K.

    1984-01-01

    Although many prediction schemes are available, tropical cyclone track forecast errors are still unacceptably large. A primary difficulty is that tropical cyclones and their environments are poorly observed by conventional data networks. Satellite sounders, however, routinely provide numerous observations near these storms. Mean layer temperatures from the Scanning Microwave Spectrometer (SCAMS) on board the Nimbus-6 satellite are decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions, and the expansion coefficients are related to deviations from persistence track forecasts. Based on multiple correlation coefficients it appears that upper-level (250-100 mb) temperatures contain significant information about the right-angle error of the persistence forecast location. Temperatures from the 1000-500 mb layer seemed to contain little forecast information. Implications of these results for further work are offered.

  10. The role of the equivalent blackbody temperature in the study of Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Steranka, J.; Rodgers, E. B.; Gentry, R. C.

    1983-01-01

    Satellite measured equivalent blackbody temperatures of Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclones are used to investigate their role in describing the convection and cloud patterns of the storms and in predicting wind intensity. The high temporal resolution of the equivalent blackbody temperature measurements afforded with the geosynchronous satellite provided sequential quantitative measurements of the tropical cyclone which reveal a diurnal pattern of convection at the inner core during the early developmental stage; a diurnal pattern of cloudiness in the storm's outer circulation throughout the life cycle; a semidiurnal pattern of cloudiness in the environmental atmosphere surrounding the storms during the weak storm stage; an outward modulating atmospheric wave originating at the inner core; and long term convective bursts at the inner core prior to wind intensification.

  11. A statistical forecast model for Tropical Cyclone Rainfall and flood events for the Hudson River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cioffi, Francesco; Conticello, Federico; Hall, Thimoty; Lall, Upmanu; Orton, Philip

    2014-05-01

    Tropical Cyclones (TCs) lead to potentially severe coastal flooding through wind surge and also through rainfall-runoff processes. There is growing interest in modeling these processes simultaneously. Here, a statistical approach that can facilitate this process is presented with an application to the Hudson River Basin that is associated with the New York City metropolitan area. Three submodels are used in sequence. The first submodel is a stochastic model of the complete life cycle of North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclones developed by Hall and Yonekura (2011). It uses archived data of TCs throughout the North Atlantic to estimate landfall rates at high geographic resolution as a function of the ENSO state and of sea surface temperature (SST). The second submodel translates the attributes of a tropical cyclone simulated by the first model to rainfall intensity at selected stations within the watershed of Hudson River. Two different approaches are used and compared: artificial neural network (ANN) and k-nearest neighbor (KNN). Finally, the third submodel transforms, once again, by using an ANN approach and KNN, the rainfall intensities, calculated for the ensemble of the stations, to the streamflows at specific points of the tributaries of the Hudson River. These streamflows are to be used as inputs in a hydrodynamic model that includes storm surge surge dynamics for the simulation of coastal flooding along the Hudson River. Calibration and validation of the model is carried out by using, selected tropical cyclone data since 1950, and hourly station rainfall and streamflow recorded for such extreme events. Four stream gauges (Troy dam, Mohawk River at Cohoes, Mohawk River diversion at Crescent Dam, Hudson River above lock one nr Waterford), a gauge from a tributary in the lower Hudson River, and over 20 rain gauges are used. The performance of the proposed model as tool for storm events is then analyzed and discussed.

  12. Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era.

    PubMed

    Reed, Andra J; Mann, Michael E; Emanuel, Kerry A; Lin, Ning; Horton, Benjamin P; Kemp, Andrew C; Donnelly, Jeffrey P

    2015-10-13

    In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States' Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sea level records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from A.D. 850 to A.D. 2005. We compare pre-anthropogenic era (A.D. 850-1800) and anthropogenic era (A.D.1970-2005) storm surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ∼1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ∼A.D. 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500-y return period for a ∼2.25-m flood height during the pre-anthropogenic era has decreased to ∼24.4 y in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies. PMID:26417111

  13. Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era

    PubMed Central

    Reed, Andra J.; Mann, Michael E.; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Lin, Ning; Horton, Benjamin P.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.

    2015-01-01

    In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States’ Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sea level records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from A.D. 850 to A.D. 2005. We compare pre-anthropogenic era (A.D. 850–1800) and anthropogenic era (A.D.1970–2005) storm surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ∼1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ∼A.D. 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500-y return period for a ∼2.25-m flood height during the pre-anthropogenic era has decreased to ∼24.4 y in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies. PMID:26417111

  14. Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era.

    PubMed

    Reed, Andra J; Mann, Michael E; Emanuel, Kerry A; Lin, Ning; Horton, Benjamin P; Kemp, Andrew C; Donnelly, Jeffrey P

    2015-10-13

    In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States' Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sea level records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from A.D. 850 to A.D. 2005. We compare pre-anthropogenic era (A.D. 850-1800) and anthropogenic era (A.D.1970-2005) storm surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ∼1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ∼A.D. 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500-y return period for a ∼2.25-m flood height during the pre-anthropogenic era has decreased to ∼24.4 y in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies.

  15. Tropical Cyclone Evolution and Water and Energy Fluxes: A Hurricane Katrina Case Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pinheiro, M. C.; Zhou, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Tropical cyclones are a highly destructive force of nature, characterized by extreme precipitation levels and wind speeds and heavy flooding. There are concerns that climate change will cause changes in the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones. Therefore, the quantification of the water and energy fluxes that occur during a tropical cyclone's life cycle are important for anticipating the magnitude of damages that are likely to occur. This study used HURDAT2 storm track information and data from the satellite-derived SeaFlux and TRMM products to determine changes in precipitation, wind, and latent and sensible heat throughout the life cycle of Hurricane Katrina. The variables were examined along and around the storm track, taking averages both at stationary 5x5 degree boxes and within the instantaneous hurricane domain. Analysis focused on contributions of convergence and latent heat to the storm evolution and examined how the total flux was related to the storm intensity. Certain features, such as the eye, were not resolved due to the data resolution, but the data captures the general trend of enhanced flux levels that are due to the storm's presence. Analysis also included examination of the water and energy budgets as related to convergence and the sensible and latent heat fluxes.

  16. A complete tropical cyclone radial wind structure model and comprehensive comparison with observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chavas, D. R.; Emanuel, K.; Lin, N.

    2014-12-01

    This work develops a simple model for the complete radial structure of the tropical cyclone wind field at the top of the boundary layer. The model is constructed by mathematically merging existing theoretical solutions for the radial wind structure in the inner convecting and outer non-convecting regions. The model is then evaluated against three observational datasets. First, the outer solution is tested against a global database from the QuikSCAT satellite (1999-2009) and found to reproduce the characteristic wind structure of tropical cyclones at large radii where convection is absent, suggesting that it successfully captures the physics of this region. Second, the inner solution is tested against the HWind database (2004-2012) for the Atlantic and East Pacific basins and are shown to credibly represent the inner-core structure but substantially underestimate wind speeds at large radii. The complete model is then shown to largely rectify this underestimation, particularly at higher intensities. Finally, model variability is compared with the Extended Best Track dataset (1988-2013). The complete model exhibits two modes of variability corresponding to the independent variations in storm size and in inner structure that mirror that observed in nature, including the independent variability of the inner and outer regions of tropical cyclones. More broadly, the model provides insight into clear definitions of the terms "size" and "structure" and their respective, independent variabilities.

  17. Development of a Multi-Model Ensemble Scheme for the Tropical Cyclone Forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jun, S.; Lee, W. J.; Kang, K.; Shin, D. H.

    2015-12-01

    A Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) prediction scheme using selected and weighted method was developed and evaluated for tropical cyclone forecast. The analyzed tropical cyclone track and intensity data set provided by Korea Meteorological Administration and 11 numerical model outputs - GDAPS, GEPS, GFS (data resolution; 50 and 100 km), GFES, HWRF, IFS(data resolution; 50 and 100 km), IFS EPS, JGSM, and TEPS - during 2011-2014 were used for this study. The procedure suggested in this study was divided into two stages: selecting and weighting process. First several numerical models were chosen based on the past model's performances in the selecting stage. Next, weights, referred to as regression coefficients, for each model forecasts were calculated by applying the linear and nonlinear regression technique to past model forecast data in the weighting stage. Finally, tropical cyclone forecasts were determined by using both selected and weighted multi-model values at that forecast time. The preliminary result showed that selected MME's improvement rate (%) was more than 5% comparing with non-selected MME at 72 h track forecast.

  18. Rapid wave and storm surge warning system for tropical cyclones in Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Appendini, C. M.; Rosengaus, M.; Meza, R.; Camacho, V.

    2015-12-01

    The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, is responsible for the forecast of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. As such, Mexico, Central America and Caribbean countries depend on the information issued by the NHC related to the characteristics of a particular tropical cyclone and associated watch and warning areas. Despite waves and storm surge are important hazards for marine operations and coastal dwellings, their forecast is not part of the NHC responsibilities. This work presents a rapid wave and storm surge warning system based on 3100 synthetic tropical cyclones doing landfall in Mexico. Hydrodynamic and wave models were driven by the synthetic events to create a robust database composed of maximum envelops of wind speed, significant wave height and storm surge for each event. The results were incorporated into a forecast system that uses the NHC advisory to locate the synthetic events passing inside specified radiuses for the present and forecast position of the real event. Using limited computer resources, the system displays the information meeting the search criteria, and the forecaster can select specific events to generate the desired hazard map (i.e. wind, waves, and storm surge) based on the maximum envelop maps. This system was developed in a limited time frame to be operational in 2015 by the National Hurricane and Severe Storms Unit of the Mexican National Weather Service, and represents a pilot project for other countries in the region not covered by detailed storm surge and waves forecasts.

  19. Sensitivities of Tropical Cyclones to Surface Friction and the Coriolis Parameter in a 2-D Cloud-Resolving Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, Winston C.; Chen, Baode; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The sensitivities to surface friction and the Coriolis parameter in tropical cyclogenesis are studied using an axisymmetric version of the Goddard cloud ensemble model. Our experiments demonstrate that tropical cyclogenesis can still occur without surface friction. However, the resulting tropical cyclone has very unrealistic structure. Surface friction plays an important role of giving the tropical cyclones their observed smaller size and diminished intensity. Sensitivity of the cyclogenesis process to surface friction. in terms of kinetic energy growth, has different signs in different phases of the tropical cyclone. Contrary to the notion of Ekman pumping efficiency, which implies a preference for the highest Coriolis parameter in the growth rate if all other parameters are unchanged, our experiments show no such preference.

  20. Rates of floodplain accretion in a tropical island river system impacted by cyclones and large floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terry, James P.; Garimella, Sitaram; Kostaschuk, Ray A.

    2002-01-01

    Fluvial processes, especially rates of floodplain accretion, are less well understood in the wet tropics than in other environments. In this study, the caesium-137 ( 137Cs) method was used to examine the recent historical sedimentation rate on the floodplain of the Wainimala River, in the basin of the Rewa River, the largest fluvial system in Fiji and the tropical South Pacific Islands. 137Cs activity in the floodplain stratigraphy showed a well-defined profile, with a clear peak at 115 cm depth. Our measured accretion rate of 3.2 cm year -1 over the last ca. 45 years exceeds rates recorded in humid regions elsewhere. This is explained by the high frequency of tropical cyclones near Fiji (40 since 1970) which can produce extreme rainfalls and large magnitude floods. Since the beginning of hydrological records, large overbank floods have occurred every 2 years on average at the study site. The biggest floods attained peak flows over 7000 m 3 s -1, or six times the bankfull discharge. Concentrations of suspended sediments are very high (max. 200-500 g l -1), delivered mainly by channel bank erosion. In the future, climatic change in the tropical South Pacific region may be associated with greater tropical cyclone intensities, which will probably increase the size of floods in the Rewa Basin and rates of floodplain sedimentation.

  1. Modulation of interannual variability of tropical cyclone activity over Southeast Indian Ocean by negative IOD phase

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Zhi; Yu, Weidong; Li, Kuiping; Liu, Baochao; Wang, Guanlin

    2015-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) over Southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO) have the notable interannual variability caused by ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). In the September-November of El Niño and October-November of positive IOD (PIOD), SEIO TCs is far less than its climatology. However, it is hard to separately understand El Niño and PIOD's impact on SEIO TCs due to their similar occurrence time and time scale. Unlike El Niño and PIOD, SEIO TCs is remarkably more than its climatology only in September-November of negative IOD (NIOD) instead of La Niña. Consequently, it is concluded NIOD mainly affects SEIO TCs' increase. Diagnose results suggest the relative humidity (RH) contributes mostly to the TCs' increase, vertical wind shear provides the secondary positive contribution, vorticity term also makes a weak positive contribution and PI term's contribution even may be negligible. The study still uncovers the process of RH change: NIOD reaches its peak period and changes atmosphere circulation to make a positive low-level vorticity anomaly over SEIO. Vorticity anomaly strengthens upward motion. The vertical velocity anomaly and climatogical specific humidity (SH) work together to make vertical advection play a dominant role in SH variation. SH's change mainly reflects in RH variation. Eventually, all of these associates with NIOD lead to more SEIO TCs in September-November and the significance of difference is above 99%.

  2. Remote impact of blocking highs on the sudden track reversal of tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, Xia; Jianfang, Fei; Xiaogang, Huang; Cheng, Xiaoping; Yu, Kun

    2015-11-01

    Previous work showed that some tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western Pacific Ocean undergo sudden track reversal, and the onset, maintenance and decay of blocking highs (BHs) coexisted with 19 of the studied TCs with sudden track reversal. In these cases, the phase relations between the BH, the continental high (CH), the subtropical high (SH) and the suddenly reversed TCs could be classified into types A, B, C and D. Types C and D were the focal point of this follow-up study, in which Typhoon Pabuk (2007) and Lupit (2009) were employed to conduct numerical simulations. The results showed that the reversed tracks of Pabuk (2007) and Lupit (2009) could have been affected by the BH, particularly in terms of the turning location and the trend of movement after turning. Specifically, the two main features for Pabuk (2007) in the BH perturbations were the deflection of its turning point and a distinct anticlockwise rotation. Lupit (2009) deviated to the southwest and finally made landfall in the Philippines, or experienced further eastward movement, in the perturbed BH. The impact mechanisms can be attributed to the change in the vorticity field transported from the BH, leading to an intensity variation of midlatitude systems. BHs may have a positive feedback effect on the strength of the westerly trough (TR), as indicated by a weakened and strengthened TR corresponding to negative and positive BH perturbations, respectively.

  3. Modelling Tropical Cyclones-Ocean interactions: the role of the Atmophere - Ocean coupling frequency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scoccimarro, Enrico; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Gualdi, Silvio; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    The interaction between Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and ocean is a major mechanism responsible for energy exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean. TCs affect the thermal and dynamical structure of the ocean, but the magnitude of the impact is still uncertain. Very few CMIP5 models demonstrated ability in representing TCs, mainly due to their horizontal resolution. We aim to improve TCs representation in next CMIPs experiments through the new CMCC-CM2VHR General Circulation Model, having a horizontal resolution of 1/4 degree in both atmospheric and ocean components. The model is capable to represent realistically TCs up to Cat-5 Typhoons. A good representation of the TC-Ocean interaction strongly depends on the coupling frequency between the atmospheric and the ocean components. In this work, we found that a better representation of the negative Sea Surface Temperature - TC induced feedback, through a high (hourly) coupling frequency, ensures the reduction of the TC induced Power Dissipation Index (PDI) bias of one order of magnitude. In addition, a cat-5 storm case study is deeply investigated also in terms of TC effects on the deep ocean.

  4. Ecosystem effects of a tropical cyclone on a network of lakes in northeastern North America.

    PubMed

    Klug, Jennifer L; Richardson, David C; Ewing, Holly A; Hargreaves, Bruce R; Samal, Nihar R; Vachon, Dominic; Pierson, Donald C; Lindsey, Amanda M; O'Donnell, David M; Effler, Steven W; Weathers, Kathleen C

    2012-11-01

    Here we document the regional effects of Tropical Cyclone Irene on thermal structure and ecosystem metabolism in nine lakes and reservoirs in northeastern North America using a network of high-frequency, in situ, automated sensors. Thermal stability declined within hours in all systems following passage of Irene, and the magnitude of change was related to the volume of water falling on the lake and catchment relative to lake volume. Across systems, temperature change predicted the change in primary production, but changes in mixed-layer thickness did not affect metabolism. Instead, respiration became a driver of ecosystem metabolism that was decoupled from in-lake primary production, likely due to addition of terrestrially derived carbon. Regionally, energetic disturbance of thermal structure was shorter-lived than disturbance from inflows of terrestrial materials. Given predicted regional increases in intense rain events with climate change, the magnitude and longevity of ecological impacts of these storms will be greater in systems with large catchments relative to lake volume, particularly when significant material is available for transport from the catchment. This case illustrates the power of automated sensor networks and associated human networks in assessing both system response and the characteristics that mediate physical and ecological responses to extreme events.

  5. Impacts of Air-Sea Interaction on Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Liguang; Wang, Bin; Braun, Scott A.

    2004-01-01

    The influence of hurricane-ocean coupling on intensity and track of tropical cyclones (TCs) is investigated through idealized numerical experiments using a coupled hurricane-ocean model. The focus is placed on how air-sea interaction affects TC tracks and intensity. It is found that the symmetric sea surface temperature (SST) cooling is primarily responsible for the TC weakening in the coupled experiments because the induced asymmetric circulation associated with the asymmetric SST anomalies is weak and shallow. The track difference between the coupled and fixed SST experiments is generally small because of the competing processes. One is associated with the modified TC asymmetries. The asymmetric SST anomalies - weaken the surface fluxes in the rear and enhance the fluxes in the front. As a result, the enhanced diabatic heating is located on the southern side for a westward-moving TC, tending to shift the TC southward. The symmetric SST anomalies weakens the TC intensity and thus the dymmetrization process, leading to more prominent TC asymmetries. The other is associated with the weakening of the beta drift resulting from the weakening of the TC outer strength. In the coupled experiment, the weakening of the beta drift leads to a more northward shift. By adjusting the vortex outer strength of the initial vortices, the beta drift can vary while the effect of air-sea interaction changes little. Two types of track differences simulated in the previous numerical studies are obtained.

  6. Tropical cyclone activity in nested regional and global grid-refined simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashimoto, Atsushi; Done, James M.; Fowler, Laura D.; Bruyère, Cindy L.

    2016-07-01

    The capacity of two different grid refinement methods—two-way limited area nesting and variable-mesh refinement—to capture Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity is compared in a suite of single-year continuous simulations. Simulations are conducted with and without regional grid refinement from approximately 100-20 km grid spacing over the Northwest Pacific. The capacity to capture smooth transitions between the two resolutions varies by grid refinement method. Nesting shows adverse influence of the nest boundary, with the boundary evident in seasonal average cloud patterns and precipitation, and contortions of the seasonal mean mid-latitude jet. Variable-mesh, on the other hand, reduces many of these effects and produced smoother cloud patterns and mid-latitude jet structure. Both refinement methods lead to increased TC frequency in the region of refinement compared to simulations without grid refinement, although nesting adversely affects TC tracks through the contorted mid-latitude jet. The variable-mesh approach leads to enhanced TC activity over the Southern Indian and Southwest Pacific basins, compared to a uniform mesh simulation. Nesting, on the other hand, does not appear to influence basins outside the region of grid refinement. This study provides evidence that variable mesh may bring benefits to seasonal TC simulation over traditional nesting, and demonstrates capacity of variable mesh refinement for regional climate simulation.

  7. Reconstruction of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones in Azores for the last 800 years.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rubio-Ingles, Maria Jesus; Sánchez, Guiomar; Trigo, Ricardo; Francus, Pierre; Gonçalves, Vitor; Raposeiro, Pedro; Freitas, Conceiçao; Borges, Paolo; Hernández, Armand; Bao, Roberto; Vázquez-Loureiro, David; Andrade, Cesar; Sáez, Alberto; Giralt, Santiago

    2014-05-01

    The variability of North Atlantic tropical storms has been the focus of several studies. Duration and seasonality has been attributed to a number of climate patterns and processes such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Mode, African easterly waves, and atmospheric Rossby waves, but their tracks have been widely related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Several authors have pointed out an increase and track shifting of North Atlantic tropical cyclones since 1995 with increased probability of these turning north far away from the North American continent. However, this cannot be regarded as an infrequent phenomenon as most proxy records from the Atlantic North have shown the existence of similar patterns in the past. Sao Miguel Island (Azores archipelago, Portugal) is settled in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. This location makes this island an excellent natural laboratory to record shifts on North Atlantic tropical storms tracks that can reach the archipelago as low intensity hurricanes (e.g. Nadine in 2012) or downgraded to tropical storm (e.g. Grace in 2009). In the present work, lake sediment records have been used as a proxy sensor of tropical storms. Lagoa Azul is located inside Sete Cidades volcanic caldera and its catchment is characterized by stepped and forested caldera walls. Tropical storms and heavy rainfalls produce a flashy and substantial enhancement in the erosion of the catchment, increasing the sediments reaching the lake by rockfalls deposits (in littoral zones) and flood events deposits (in offshore zones). These flood events can be recognized in the sedimentary record as lobe deposits dominated by terrestrial components. It can be found in the sedimentary record and the bathymetry. Instrumental meteorological data and historical records have been compiled to reconstruct the most recent history of the North Atlantic tropical storms that have landed or affected the Sao Miguel Island (Andrade et al., 2008). In addition, a 1

  8. Identifying recharge from tropical cyclonic storms, Baja California Sur, Mexico.

    PubMed

    Eastoe, Christopher J; Hess, Greg; Mahieux, Susana

    2015-04-01

    Groundwater in the Todos Santos watershed in southern Baja California, and throughout the peninsula south of latitude 28°N, has values of (δ18 O‰, δD‰) ranging between (-8.3, -57) and (-10.9, -78). Such negative values are uncharacteristic of the site latitude near the sea level. Altitude effects do not explain the isotope data. Tropical depressions originating along the Pacific coast of North America yield rain with isotopic depletion; rain from these weather systems in southern Arizona commonly has δ18O values<-10‰ in comparison with amount-weighted mean summer and fall rain at -6‰. Isotope data indicate hurricane rain as the predominant source of recharge in southern Baja California, where named tropical depressions bring large rains (>50 mm) at least once every 2 to 3 years, and along the Pacific coast between Jalisco and Oaxaca.

  9. Influence of the Saharan Air Layer on Atlantic tropical cyclone formation during the period 1-12 September 2003

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, Weiyu; Wu, Liguang; Shie, Chung-Lin

    2011-01-01

    Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) data show that the Saharan air layer (SAL) is a dry, warm, and well-mixed layer between 950 and 500 hPa over the tropical Atlantic, extending westward from the African coast to the Caribbean Sea. The formations of both Hurricane Isabel and Tropical Depression 14 (TD14) were accompanied with outbreaks of SAL air during the period 1-12 September 2003, although TD14 failed to develop into a named tropical cyclone. The influence of the SAL on their formations is investigated by examining data from satellite observations and numerical simulations, in which AIRS data are incorporated into the MM5 model through the nudging technique. Analyses of the AIRS and simulation data suggest that the SAL may have played two roles in the formation of tropical cyclones during the period 1-12 September 2003. First, the outbreaks of SAL air on 3 and 8 September enhanced the transverse-vertical circulation with the rising motion along the southern edge of the SAL and the sinking motion inside the SAL, triggering the development of two tropical disturbances associated with Hurricane Isabel and TD14. Second, in addition to the reduced environmental humidity and enhanced static stability in the lower troposphere, the SAL dry air intruded into the inner region of these tropical disturbances as their cyclonic flows became strong. This effect may have slowed down the formation of Isabel and inhibited TD14 becoming a named tropical cyclone, while the enhanced vertical shear contributed little to tropical cyclone formation during this period. The 48-h trajectory calculations confirm that the parcels from the SAL can be transported into the inner region of an incipient tropical cyclone.

  10. Impact of surface coupling grids on tropical cyclone extremes in high-resolution atmospheric simulations

    DOE PAGES

    Zarzycki, Colin M.; Reed, Kevin A.; Bacmeister, Julio T.; Craig, Anthony P.; Bates, Susan C.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.

    2016-02-25

    This article discusses the sensitivity of tropical cyclone climatology to surface coupling strategy in high-resolution configurations of the Community Earth System Model. Using two supported model setups, we demonstrate that the choice of grid on which the lowest model level wind stress and surface fluxes are computed may lead to differences in cyclone strength in multi-decadal climate simulations, particularly for the most intense cyclones. Using a deterministic framework, we show that when these surface quantities are calculated on an ocean grid that is coarser than the atmosphere, the computed frictional stress is misaligned with wind vectors in individual atmospheric gridmore » cells. This reduces the effective surface drag, and results in more intense cyclones when compared to a model configuration where the ocean and atmosphere are of equivalent resolution. Our results demonstrate that the choice of computation grid for atmosphere–ocean interactions is non-negligible when considering climate extremes at high horizontal resolution, especially when model components are on highly disparate grids.« less

  11. Multi-model ensemble forecasting of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Villarini, Gabriele; Luitel, Beda; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Ghosh, Joyee

    2016-09-01

    North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) and hurricanes are responsible for a large number of fatalities and economic damage. Skillful seasonal predictions of the North Atlantic TC activity can provide basic information critical to our improved preparedness. This study focuses on the development of statistical-dynamical seasonal forecasting systems for different quantities related to the frequency and intensity of North Atlantic TCs. These models use only tropical Atlantic and tropical mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to describe the variability exhibited by the observational records because they reflect the importance of both local and non-local effects on the genesis and development of TCs in the North Atlantic basin. A set of retrospective forecasts of SSTs by six experimental seasonal-to-interannual prediction systems from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble are used as covariates. The retrospective forecasts are performed over the period 1982-2015. The skill of these statistical-dynamical models is quantified for different quantities (basin-wide number of tropical storms and hurricanes, power dissipation index and accumulated cyclone energy) for forecasts initialized as early as November of the year prior to the season to forecast. The results of this work show that it is possible to obtain skillful retrospective forecasts of North Atlantic TC activity with a long lead time. Moreover, probabilistic forecasts of North Atlantic TC activity for the 2016 season are provided.

  12. Mesoscale Aspects of the Downshear Reformation of a Tropical Cyclone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2004-01-01

    The downshear reformation of Tropical Storm Gabrielle (2001) was investigated using radar reflectivity and lightning data that were nearly continuous in time, as well as frequent aircraft reconnaissance fights. Initially the storm was a marginal tropical storm in an environment with strong 850-200 hPa vertical wind shear of 12-13 m/s and an approaching upper tropospheric trough. Both the observed outflow and an adiabatic balance model calculation showed that the radial-vertical circulation increased with time as the trough approached. Convection was highly asymmetric, with almost all radar return located in one quadrant left of downshear in the storm. Reconnaissance data show that an intense mesovortex formed downshear of the original center. This vortex was located just south of: rather than within, a strong downshear left lightning outbreak, consistent with tilting of the horizontal vorticity associated with the vertical wind shear. The downshear mesovortex contained a 972 hPa minimum central pressure, 20 hPa lower than minimum pressure in the original vortex just three hours earlier. The mesovortex became the new center of the storm, but weakened somewhat prior to landfall. It is argued that dry air carried around the storm from the region of upshear subsidence, as well as the direct effects of the shear, prevented the reformed vortex from continuing to intense.

  13. The Tropical Cyclone Response to Structural and Temporal Variability in the Environmental Wind Profile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Onderlinde, Matthew J.

    The aim of this dissertation is to attain a better understanding of how tropical cyclones (TCs) respond to variations in the three-dimensional environmental wind field. Much attention has been given to the impact of environmental wind shear in the 850 -- 200 hPa layer on tropical cyclones. However, even with the same magnitude of shear, helicity in this layer can vary significantly. A new parameter is presented, the tropical cyclone-relative environmental helicity (TCREH). Positive TCREH leads to a tilted storm that enhances local storm scale helicity in regions of convection within the TC. Initially we proposed that this enhanced local scale helicity may allow for more robust and longer lasting convection which is more effective at generating latent heat and subsequent TC intensification. Further investigation shows that this is a secondary influence on TC intensity and that variations in the azimuthal and radial position of convection in the TC play a stronger role. Vertical tilt of the vortex is often attributed to wind shear. Different values of helicity modulate this tilt and certain tilt configurations are more favorable for development or intensification than others, suggesting that mean positive environmental helicity is more favorable for development and intensification than mean negative helicity. Idealized modeling simulations demonstrate the impact of environmental helicity on TC development and intensification. Results show that wind profiles with the same 850-200 hPa wind shear but different values of helicity lead to different rates of development. TCREH also is computed from Era-Interim reanalysis (1979 -- 2011) and GFS analyses (2004 -- 2011) to determine if a significant signal exists between TCREH and TC intensification. Mean annular helicity is averaged over various time periods and correlated with the TC intensity change during those periods. Results suggest a weak but statistically significant correlation between environmental helicity and TC

  14. Decadal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Annual Frequency in Different Ocean Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Yating Zhao1, Jing Jiang1 1 School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University Nanjing 210093 China Abstract: Tropical cyclone, one of the most severe global natural disasters, causes massive casualties and economic losses every year, greatly influences the rapid development of the modern society. Using hurricane best track data from JTWC and TPC we investigate the decadal variations of TC activities. Our research indicates that the variability of TC frequency of different ocean basins (North Indian Ocean (NIO), Northwest Pacific Ocean (WP), Northeast Pacific Ocean (NEP), North Atlantic Ocean (NA) and South Hemisphere (SH)) all have significant decadal periods, and these decadal signals have something connect with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which acting as the background, modulating and influencing the synoptic scale weather systems. Through diagnosing the oceanic and atmospheric circulation in different stages of PDO, we find that, as the PDO signal transmits through the Pacific Ocean, the atmospheric circulation changes accordingly all over the tropical ocean. And they influence the dynamic conditions in the troposphere and promote or restrain the tropical cyclone activities in these areas. In another word, in the positive phase of PDO, there are much more (less) TC activities observed over the NEP (NA, WP, NIO, SH), which very likely due to the favorable (unfavorable) environmental factors, such as higher (lower) SST, weaker (stronger) vertical wind shear, higher (lower) relative humidity in the middle level of troposphere, and low level positive (negative) vorticity in the local area. Meanwhile, what should be noted is that the primary environmental factor could be very different in different ocean basin. Keywords: tropical cyclone, decadal variability, PDO

  15. Interannual and cyclone-driven variability in phytoplankton communities of a tropical coastal lagoon.

    PubMed

    Srichandan, Suchismita; Kim, Ji Yoon; Kumar, Abhishek; Mishra, Deepak R; Bhadury, Punyasloke; Muduli, Pradipta R; Pattnaik, Ajit K; Rastogi, Gurdeep

    2015-12-15

    One of the main challenges in phytoplankton ecology is to understand their variability at different spatiotemporal scales. We investigated the interannual and cyclone-derived variability in phytoplankton communities of Chilika, the largest tropical coastal lagoon in Asia and the underlying mechanisms in relation to environmental forcing. Between July 2012 and June 2013, Cyanophyta were most prolific in freshwater northern region of the lagoon. A category-5 very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) Phailin struck the lagoon on 12th October 2013 and introduced additional variability into the hydrology and phytoplankton communities. Freshwater Cyanophyta further expanded their territory and occupied the northern as well as central region of the lagoon. Satellite remote sensing imagery revealed that the phytoplankton biomass did not change much due to high turbidity prevailing in the lagoon after Phailin. Modeling analysis of species-salinity relationship identified specific responses of phytoplankton taxa to the different salinity regime of lagoon.

  16. Physical and biological response of the Arabian Sea to tropical cyclone Phyan and its implications.

    PubMed

    Byju, P; Prasanna Kumar, S

    2011-06-01

    The response to the tropical cyclone Phyan, which developed in the eastern Arabian Sea during 9-11 November 2009, was rapid cooling of sea surface temperature (SST), enhancement of chlorophyll a and two-fold increase in net primary productivity (NPP). Cooling of SST was immediate in response to the strong wind-mixing, and the subsequent upward Ekman pumping sustained the cooling even after the dissipation of Phyan. The biological response mediated by the upward Ekman pumping driven vertical transport of subsurface nutrient showed a time lag of 3-4 days. The CO₂ flux to the atmosphere associated with Phyan was 0.123 Tg C, which accounted for ~85% of the total out-gassing from the eastern Arabian Sea during November. Thus, an increased occurrence of cyclones in a warming environment will lead to an enhanced biomass production and also increase in CO₂ out-gassing.

  17. Interannual and cyclone-driven variability in phytoplankton communities of a tropical coastal lagoon.

    PubMed

    Srichandan, Suchismita; Kim, Ji Yoon; Kumar, Abhishek; Mishra, Deepak R; Bhadury, Punyasloke; Muduli, Pradipta R; Pattnaik, Ajit K; Rastogi, Gurdeep

    2015-12-15

    One of the main challenges in phytoplankton ecology is to understand their variability at different spatiotemporal scales. We investigated the interannual and cyclone-derived variability in phytoplankton communities of Chilika, the largest tropical coastal lagoon in Asia and the underlying mechanisms in relation to environmental forcing. Between July 2012 and June 2013, Cyanophyta were most prolific in freshwater northern region of the lagoon. A category-5 very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) Phailin struck the lagoon on 12th October 2013 and introduced additional variability into the hydrology and phytoplankton communities. Freshwater Cyanophyta further expanded their territory and occupied the northern as well as central region of the lagoon. Satellite remote sensing imagery revealed that the phytoplankton biomass did not change much due to high turbidity prevailing in the lagoon after Phailin. Modeling analysis of species-salinity relationship identified specific responses of phytoplankton taxa to the different salinity regime of lagoon. PMID:26611863

  18. Evidence of reduced vulnerability to tropical cyclones in the Republic of Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Doo-Sun R.; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Nam, Chaehyeon C.; Kim, Hyeong-Seog

    2015-05-01

    On average, three tropical cyclones (TCs) affect the Republic of Korea each year, causing extensive damage. To alleviate the TC-induced disasters, the Korean government has invested nearly 4% of its annual budget in recent decades in prevention efforts; however, the effectiveness of this costly program has not been evaluated. This study determined whether any evidence shows a reduced vulnerability to TCs in Korea over 1979-2010 by utilizing multi-linear regression. Homelessness, casualties, and property losses were individually examined. These explained variables were normalized into the socio-economic circumstances of 2005 before the regression to eliminate the effect of changing exposure by dealing with population and wealth at provincial levels. Three potential explanatory variables based on nationwide weather-station data were considered, including the maximum wind, maximum rainfall, and number of affected stations over each TC’s damaging period. In addition, the annual per capita income, showing a quasi-linear increasing tendency, was used as an additional explanatory variable to examine how vulnerability is altered. The results revealed that each empirical model of homelessness, casualties, and property losses can account for 47%, 57%, and 57% of each variance, respectively, which is highest when considering all four explanatory variables. Consistently negative coefficients of the per capita income terms for all damage types suggest that the vulnerability to TCs has been significantly reduced. This finding appears to be partly the result of the national prevention effort, although it also can be attributed to other unintended adaptation factors, such as building codes, industrial structures, and land use.

  19. Anatomy of sand beach ridges: Evidence from severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi and its predecessors, northeast Queensland, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nott, Jonathan; Chague-Goff, Catherine; Goff, James; Sloss, Craig; Riggs, Naomi

    2013-09-01

    Four well-identified tropical cyclones over the past century have been responsible for depositing distinct units of predominantly quartzose sand and gravel to form the most seaward beach ridge at several locations along the wet tropical coast of northeast Queensland, Australia. These units deposited by tropical cyclones display a key sedimentary signature characterized by a sharp basal erosional contact, a coarser grain size than the underlying facies and a coarse-skewed trend toward the base. Coarse-skewed distributions with minimal change in mean grain size also characterize the upper levels of the high-energy deposited units at locations within the zone of maximum onshore winds during the tropical cyclone. These same coarse skew distributions are not apparent in sediments deposited at locations where predominantly offshore winds occurred during the cyclone, which in the case of northeast Australia is north of the eye-crossing location. These sedimentary signatures, along with the geochemical indicators and the degraded nature of the microfossil assemblages, have proven to be useful proxies to identify storm-deposited units within the study site and can also provide useful proxies in older beach ridges where advanced pedogenesis has obscured visual stratigraphic markers. As a consequence, more detailed long-term histories of storms and tropical cyclones can now be developed.

  20. On predicting future economic losses from tropical cyclones: Comparing damage functions for the Eastern USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geiger, Tobias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja

    2015-04-01

    Recent years have seen an intense scientific debate of what to expect from future tropical cyclone activity under climate change [1,2]. Besides the projection of cyclones' genesis points and trajectories it is the cyclone's impact on future societies that needs to be quantified. In our present work, where we focus on the Eastern USA, we start out with a comprehensive comparison of a variety of presently available and novel functional relationships that are used to link cyclones' physical properties with their damage caused on the ground. These so-called damage functions make use of high quality data sets consisting of gridded population data, exposed capital at risk, and information on the cyclone's extension and its translational and locally resolved maximum wind speed. Based on a cross-validation ansatz we train a multitude of damage functions on a large variety of data sets in order to evaluate their performance on an equally sized test sample. Although different damage analyses have been conducted in the literature [3,4,5,6], the efforts have so far primarily been focused on determining fit parameters for individual data sets. As our analysis consists of a wide range of damage functions implemented on identical data sets, we can rigorously evaluate which (type of) damage function (for which set of parameters) does best in reproducing damages and should therefore be used for future loss analysis with highest certainty. We find that the benefits of using locally resolved data input tend to be outweighed by the large uncertainties that accompany the data. More coarse and generalized data input therefore captures the diversity of cyclonic features better. Furthermore, our analysis shows that a non-linear relation between wind speed and damage outperforms the linear as well as the exponential relationship discussed in the literature. In a second step, the damage function with the highest predictive quality is implemented to predict potential future cyclone losses

  1. Effects Of Vertical Wind Shear On Intensity And Structure Of Tropical Cyclone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Q.

    2014-12-01

    In this study, the effect of vertical wind shear (VWS) on the intensification of tropical cyclone (TC) is investigated via the numerical simulations. Results indicate that weak shear tends to facilitate the development of TC while strong shear appears to inhibit the intensification of TC. As the VWS is imposed on the TC, the vortex of the cyclone tends to tilt vertically and significantly in the upper troposphere. Consequently, the upward motion is considerably enhanced in the downshear side of the storm center and correspondingly, the low- to mid-level potential temperature decreases under the effect of adiabatic cooling, which leads to the increase of the low- to mid-level static instability and relative humidity and then facilitates the burst of convection. In the case of weak shear, the vertical tilting of the vortex is weak and the increase of ascent, static instability and relative humidity occur in the area close to the TC center. Therefore, active convection happens in the TC center region and facilitates the enhancement of vorticity in the inner core region and then the intensification of TC. In contrast, due to strong VWS, the increase of the ascent, static instability and relative humidity induced by the vertical tilting mainly appear in the outer region of TC in the case with stronger shear, and the convection in the inner-core area of TC is rather weak and convective activity mainly happens in the outer-region of the TC. Therefore, the development of a warm core is inhibited and then the intensification of TC is delayed. The numerical result shows that the tropical storm can still experience rapid intensification and finally develop into a strong tropical cyclone after a relatively long period of adjustment in the strong VWS environment. It is found that the convection plays an important role in the adjusting period. On one hand, the convection leads to the horizontal convergence of the low-level vorticity flux and therefore leads to the enhancement of

  2. Relationships between Gulf of California Moisture Surges and Tropical Cyclones in the Eastern Pacific Basin.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Higgins, R. W.; Shi, W.

    2005-11-01

    Relationships between Gulf of California moisture surges and tropical cyclones (TCs) in the eastern Pacific basin are examined. Standard surface observations are used to identify gulf surge events at Yuma, Arizona, for a multiyear (July August 1979 2001) period. The surges are related to TCs using National Hurricane Center 6-hourly track data for the eastern Pacific basin. Climate Prediction Center (CPC)- observed daily precipitation analyses and the NCEP Regional Reanalysis are used to examine the relative differences in the precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and moisture fields for several categories of surge events, including those that are directly related to TCs, indirectly related to TCs, and not related to TCs.It is shown that the response to the surge in the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico is strongly discriminated by the presence or absence of TCs. Surges related to TCs tend to be associated with much stronger and deeper low-level southerly flow, deeper plumes of tropical moisture, and wetter conditions over the core monsoon region than surges that are unrelated to TCs. The response to the surge is also strongly influenced by the proximity of the TC to the Gulf of California (GOC) region. Tropical cyclones that track toward the GOC region exert a stronger, more direct influence on Yuma surges than those that track away from the GOC.

  3. Spatial relationships between tropical cyclone frequencies and population densities in Haiti since the 19th century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klose, C. D.

    2011-12-01

    The second edition of the United Nations Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction in 2011 outlined that the worldwide physical exposure to tropical cyclones increased by 192 per cent between 1970 and 2010. For the past 160 years, the Republic of Haiti has experienced numerous tropical storms and hurricanes which may have directly effected the country's development path. However, statistical data regarding storm frequencies and population densities in space and time show that the population's exposure in Haiti may have more negatively influenced its development than the actual number of storms and hurricanes. Haitians, in particular, those living in urban areas have been exposed to much higher tropical cyclone hazards than rural areas since the second half of the 20th century. Specifically, more storms made landfall in regions of accelerated migration/urbanization, such as, in departments Ouest, Artibonite, Nord, and Nord-Ouest with Haiti's four largest cities Port-au-Prince, Gonaives, Cap-Haitien and Port-de-Paix.

  4. A meridional dipole in premonsoon Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone activity induced by ENSO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balaguru, Karthik; Leung, L. Ruby; Lu, Jian; Foltz, Gregory R.

    2016-06-01

    Analysis of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone (TC) track data for the months of May-June during 1979-2014 reveals a meridional dipole in TC intensification: TC intensification rates increased significantly in the northern region and decreased in the southern region. The dipole is consistent with changes in the large-scale TC environment estimated using the Genesis Potential Index (GPI) for the same period. While an increase in lower troposphere cyclonic vorticity and midtroposphere humidity in the northern Bay of Bengal made the environment more favorable for TC intensification, enhanced vertical wind shear in the southern Bay of Bengal tended to reduce TC development. These environmental changes were associated with a strengthening of the monsoon circulation for the months of May-June, driven by a La Niña-like shift in tropical Pacific SSTs and associated tropical wave dynamics. Finally, analysis of a suite of climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive shows that most models correctly reproduce the link between ENSO and premonsoon Bay of Bengal TC activity at interannual timescales, demonstrating the robustness of our main conclusions.

  5. Analysis and prediction of integrated kinetic energy in Atlantic tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozar, Michael E.

    Integrated kinetic energy (IKE) is a recently developed metric that approximates the destructive potential of a tropical cyclone by assessing the size and strength of its wind field. Despite the potential usefulness of the IKE metric, there are few, if any, operational tools that are specifically designed to forecast IKE in real-time. Therefore, IKE and tropical cyclone structure are analyzed within historical Atlantic tropical cyclones from the past two decades in order to develop an understanding of the environmental and internal storm-driven processes that govern IKE variability. This analysis concurs with past research that IKE growth and decay is influenced by both traditional tropical cyclone development mechanisms and by other features such as extratropical transition and trough interactions. Using this framework, a series of statistical prediction tools are created in an effort to project IKE in Atlantic tropical cyclones from a series of relevant normalized input parameters. The resulting IKE prediction schemes are titled the "Statistical Prediction of Integrated Kinetic Energy (SPIKE)". The first version of SPIKE utilizes simple linear regression to project historical IKE quantities in a perfect prognostic mode for all storms between 1990 and 2011. This primitive model acts as a proof of concept, revealing that IKE can be skillfully forecasted relative to persistence out to 72 hours by even the simplest of statistical models if given accurate estimates of various metrics measured throughout the storm and its environment. The proof-of-concept version of SPIKE is improved upon in its second version, SPIKE2, by incorporating a more sophisticated system of adaptive statistical models. A system of artificial neural networks replaces the linear regression model to better capture the nonlinear relationships in the TC-environment system. In a perfect prognostic approach with analyzed input parameters, the neural networks outperform the linear models in nearly

  6. Predicting Tropical Cyclogenesis with a Global Mesoscale Model: Hierarchical Multiscale Interactions During the Formation of Tropical Cyclone Nargis(2008)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shen, B.-W.; Tao, W.-K.; Lau, W. K.; Atlas, R.

    2010-01-01

    Very severe cyclonic storm Nargis devastated Burma (Myanmar) in May 2008, caused tremendous damage and numerous fatalities, and became one of the 10 deadliest tropical cyclones (TCs) of all time. To increase the warning time in order to save lives and reduce economic damage, it is important to extend the lead time in the prediction of TCs like Nargis. As recent advances in high-resolution global models and supercomputing technology have shown the potential for improving TC track and intensity forecasts, the ability of a global mesoscale model to predict TC genesis in the Indian Ocean is examined in this study with the aim of improving simulations of TC climate. High-resolution global simulations with real data show that the initial formation and intensity variations of TC Nargis can be realistically predicted up to 5 days in advance. Preliminary analysis suggests that improved representations of the following environmental conditions and their hierarchical multiscale interactions were the key to achieving this lead time: (1) a westerly wind burst and equatorial trough, (2) an enhanced monsoon circulation with a zero wind shear line, (3) good upper-level outflow with anti-cyclonic wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa, and (4) low-level moisture convergence.

  7. Cloud electrification and lightning activity in a tropical cyclone-like vortex

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barthe, C.; Hoarau, T.; Bovalo, C.

    2016-11-01

    In this study, a high resolution simulation of an electrified tropical cyclone-like vortex was performed with the French mesoscale model Meso-NH coupled to an explicit electrical scheme. The objective was to analyze how graupel characteristics could influence the occurrence of lightning flashes in tropical cyclones. Two simulations were run: a control simulation using a 1-moment mixed phase bulk microphysical scheme, and a second simulation in which the parameters used to describe the graupel mass-diameter and fall speed-diameter relationships were modified to obtain smaller graupel fall speeds. Decreasing the graupel fall speed (vg) resulted in a weaker storm with a larger radius of maximum winds. For both simulated tropical cyclones, a deep mixed phase layer conducive to cloud electrification was observed. However, in the simulation where vg was decreased, the flash rate was almost zero throughout the simulation, whereas it reached a few flashes per minute in the control simulation. Several reasons that can explain this difference in the total flash rate are highlighted. Decreasing vg resulted in graupel being spread horizontally over a broader area by the secondary circulation. The more pronounced tilting observed with slower vg meant that poles of charges were not vertically aligned and thus the vertical electric field was reduced. In this study, the difference in the total flash rate mainly arose from changes in the mass and charge transfer rates due to changes in the parameters used to define the mass-diameter and particle-diameter relationships. Cloud electrification and lightning flashes being threshold-processes, a small change in the model physics can have a dramatic impact on the total flash rate.

  8. A review of tropical cyclone-generated storm surges: Global data sources, observations, and impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Needham, Hal F.; Keim, Barry D.; Sathiaraj, David

    2015-06-01

    Tropical cyclone-generated storm surges are among the world's most deadly and destructive natural hazards. This paper provides the first comprehensive global review of tropical storm surge data sources, observations, and impacts while archiving data in SURGEDAT, a global database. Available literature has provided data for more than 700 surge events since 1880, the majority of which are found in the western North Atlantic (WNA), followed by Australia/Oceania, the western North Pacific (WNP), and the northern Indian Ocean (NIO). The Bay of Bengal (BOB) in the NIO consistently observes the world's highest surges, as this subbasin averages five surges ≥5 m per decade and has observed credible storm tide levels reaching 13.7 m. The WNP observes the highest rate of low-magnitude surges, as the coast of China averages 54 surges ≥1 m per decade, and rates are likely higher in the Philippines. The U.S. Gulf Coast observes the second highest frequency of both high-magnitude (≥5 m) and low-magnitude (≥1 m) surges. The BOB observes the most catastrophic surge impacts, as 59% of global tropical cyclones that have killed at least 5000 people occurred in this basin. The six deadliest cyclones in this region have each killed at least 140,000 people, and two events have killed 300,000. Storm surge impacts transportation, agriculture, and energy sectors in the WNA. Oceania experiences long-term impacts, including contamination of fresh water and loss of food supplies, although the highest surges in this region are lower than most other basins.

  9. Skill of probabilistic decadal forecasts regarding the frequencies of Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tim, Kruschke; Rust, Henning; Kadow, Christopher; Ulbrich, Uwe; Leckebusch, Gregor

    2015-04-01

    Mid-latitude cyclones exert a large influence on primary meteorological parameters such as surface temperature, wind speed or precipitation. The variability in their frequency of occurrence is thus important for climate variability in the extra-tropics and consequently a crucial parameter for skillful predictions on interannual to multi-decadal time scales. This work investigates the skill of a prediction system which is being developed to make climate forecasts for time scales of up to 10 years. Within MiKlip - the German initiative for decadal prediction - five different hindcast sets for the period 1961-2010 were set up, all produced by the same model system (MPI-ESM-LR), but following different strategies for initialization (anomaly-initialization and full-field-initialization from different reanalysis data sets as well as initialization from an assimilation experiment). Based on 41 annual initializations for each of the strategies, it is analyzed whether these forecast systems can provide skillful (compared to climatological forecasts and uninitialized climate projections) probabilistic three-category forecasts enhanced, normal or decreased) of Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical winter (ONDJFM) cyclone frequencies with different lead times. It is shown, that they exhibit significant skill for the North Atlantic and Pacific storm track,mainly for lead times of 2-5 years. Prediction skill for the subset of intense (strongest 25% according to laplacian of sea-level pressure) cyclones is generally higher than for the full set of all detected systems. A comparison of the different initialization strategies indicates systematic differences for some lead times and regions. First exploratory analyses regarding potential sources of found predictive skill indicate local oceanic forcing of lower troposphere baroclinicity but also remote influences - especially of tropical origin - modulating large scale circulation patterns.

  10. Building of tropical beach ridges, northeastern Queensland, Australia: Cyclone inundation and aeolian decoration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tamura, Toru; Nicholas, William; Brooke, Brendan; Oliver, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    Processes associated with tropical cyclones are thought responsible for building coarse sand beach ridges along the northeastern Queensland coast, Australia. While these ridges are expected to be geological records of the past cyclone, they question the general consensus of the aeolian genesis of sandy beach ridges. To explore the ridge-forming process, we carried out the GPR survey, auger drilling, pit excavation, grain-size analysis, and OSL dating for coarse sand beach ridges at the Cowley Beach, northeastern Queensland. The Cowley Beach is a mesotidal beach characterized by a low-tide terrace and steep beach face. Ten beach ridges are recognized along the survey transect that extends 700 m inland from the shore. 37 OSL ages are younger seawards, indicating the seaward accretion of the ridge sequence over the last 2700 years. The highest ridge is +5.1 m high above AHD (Australian Height Datum). Two GPR units are bounded by a groundwater surface at c. +1.5 m AHD. The upper unit is characterized by horizontal to hummocky reflectors punctuated by seaward dipping truncation surfaces. These reflectors in places form dome-like structure that appears to be the nucleus of a beach ridge. The shape and level (+2.5 m AHD) of the dome are similar to those of the present swash berm. The lower unit shows a sequence of reflectors that dip at an angle of present beach face. The sequence is dissected by truncation surfaces, some of which are continuous to those in the upper unit. Coarse sand mainly forms beach ridge deposits below +4.0 m AHD, while a few higher ridges have an upward fining layer composed of medium sand above +4.0 m, which is finer than aeolian ripples found on the backshore during the survey. In addition, pumice gravel horizons underlie the examined ridge crests. The sequence of seaward dipping reflectors indicates that the Cowley Beach, like other many sandy beaches, has prograded during onshore sand accretion by fairweather waves and has been eroded by storms

  11. Effect of tropical cyclones on the stratosphere-troposphere exchange observed using satellite observations over the north Indian Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venkat Ratnam, M.; Babu, S. Ravindra; Das, S. S.; Basha, G.; Krishnamurthy, B. V.; Venkateswararao, B.

    2016-07-01

    Tropical cyclones play an important role in modifying the tropopause structure and dynamics as well as stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) processes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region. In the present study, the impact of cyclones that occurred over the north Indian Ocean during 2007-2013 on the STE processes is quantified using satellite observations. Tropopause characteristics during cyclones are obtained from the Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) measurements, and ozone and water vapour concentrations in the UTLS region are obtained from Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite observations. The effect of cyclones on the tropopause parameters is observed to be more prominent within 500 km of the centre of the tropical cyclone. In our earlier study, we observed a decrease (increase) in the tropopause altitude (temperature) up to 0.6 km (3 K), and the convective outflow level increased up to 2 km. This change leads to a total increase in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) thickness of 3 km within 500 km of the centre of cyclone. Interestingly, an enhancement in the ozone mixing ratio in the upper troposphere is clearly noticed within 500 km from the cyclone centre, whereas the enhancement in the water vapour in the lower stratosphere is more significant on the south-east side, extending from 500 to 1000 km away from the cyclone centre. The cross-tropopause mass flux for different intensities of cyclones is estimated and it is found that the mean flux from the stratosphere to the troposphere for cyclonic storms is 0.05 ± 0.29 × 10-3 kg m-2, and for very severe cyclonic storms it is 0.5 ± 1.07 × 10-3 kg m-2. More downward flux is noticed on the north-west and south-west side of the cyclone centre. These results indicate that the cyclones have significant impact in effecting the tropopause structure, ozone and water vapour budget, and consequentially the STE in the UTLS region.

  12. Determination of tropical cyclone surface pressure and winds from satellite microwave data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kidder, S. Q.

    1979-01-01

    An approach to the problem of deducing wind speed and pressure around tropical cyclones is presented. The technique, called the Surface Wind Inference from Microwave data (SWIM technique, uses satellites microwave sounder data to measure upper tropospheric temperature anomalies which may then be related to surface pressure anomalies through the hydrostatic and radiative transfer equations. Surface pressure gradients outside of the radius of maximum wind are estimated for the first time. Future instruments may be able to estimate central pressure with + or - 0/1 kPa accuracy.

  13. The Challenges of Interpreting Microwave-Sounded Height- Registered Water near Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fishbein, E.; Fetzer, E.; Kahn, B.; Lambrightsen, B.; Teixeira, J.

    2008-12-01

    Satellite-derived coincident profiles of water, and liquid water (cloud properties) provide some of the best constraints on the energetics of tropical cyclones. The problem addressed is how accuracy depends on amount and distribution of cloud liquid water. We focus on products derived from the AMSU/MHS sounders using algorithms from the AIRS/AMSU/HSB investigations. We use error analysis and inter omparisons with total precipitable and liquid water from AMSR-E and MODIS. Accuracy degrades as cloud liquid water amount increases and the vertical distribution of water vapor depends on climatological constraints on either partitioning between phases or vertical correlation.

  14. Predicting tropical cyclone intensity using satellite measured equivalent blackbody temperatures of cloud tops. [regression analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gentry, R. C.; Rodgers, E.; Steranka, J.; Shenk, W. E.

    1978-01-01

    A regression technique was developed to forecast 24 hour changes of the maximum winds for weak (maximum winds less than or equal to 65 Kt) and strong (maximum winds greater than 65 Kt) tropical cyclones by utilizing satellite measured equivalent blackbody temperatures around the storm alone and together with the changes in maximum winds during the preceding 24 hours and the current maximum winds. Independent testing of these regression equations shows that the mean errors made by the equations are lower than the errors in forecasts made by the peristence techniques.

  15. Communicating the Threat of a Tropical Cyclone to the Eastern Range

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Winters, Katherine A.; Roeder, William P.; McAleenan, Mike; Belson, Brian L.; Shafer, Jaclyn A.

    2012-01-01

    The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has developed a tool to help visualize the Wind Speed Probability product from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and to help communicate that information to space launch customers and decision makers at the 45th Space Wing (45 SW) and Kennedy Space Center (KSC) located in east central Florida. This paper reviews previous work and presents the new visualization tool, including initial feedback as well as the pros and cons. The NHC began issuing their Wind Speed Probability product for tropical cyclones publicly in 2006. The 45 WS uses this product to provide a threat assessment to 45 SW and KSC leadership for risk evaluations with an approaching tropical cyclone. Although the wind speed probabilities convey the uncertainty of a tropical cyclone well, communicating this information to customers is a challenge. The 45 WS continually strives to provide the wind speed probability information to customers in a context which clearly communicates the threat of a tropical cyclone. First, an intern from the Florida Institute of Technology (FIT) Atmospheric Sciences department, sponsored by Scitor Corporation, independently evaluated the NHC wind speed probability product. This work was later extended into a M.S. thesis at FIT, partially funded by Scitor Corporation and KSC. A second thesis at FIT further extended the evaluation partially funded by KSC. Using this analysis, the 45 WS categorized the probabilities into five probability interpretation categories: Very Low, Low, Moderate, High, and Very High. These probability interpretation categories convert the forecast probability and forecast interval into easily understood categories that are consistent across all ranges of probabilities and forecast intervals. As a follow-on project, KSC funded a summer intern to evaluate the human factors of the probability interpretation categories, which ultimately refined some of the thresholds. The 45 WS created a visualization tool to express the

  16. A note concerning the Lighthill “sandwich model” of tropical cyclones

    PubMed Central

    Barenblatt, G. I.; Chorin, A. J.; Prostokishin, V. M.

    2005-01-01

    The basic element of Lighthill's “sandwich model” of tropical cyclones is the existence of “ocean spray,” a layer intermediate between air and sea made up of a cloud of droplets that can be viewed as a “third fluid.” We propose a mathematical model of the flow in the ocean spray based on a semiempirical turbulence theory and demonstrate that the availability of the ocean spray over the waves in the ocean can explain the tremendous acceleration of the wind as a consequence of the reduction of the turbulence intensity by droplets. This explanation complements the thermodynamic arguments proposed by Lighthill. PMID:16049097

  17. An investigation into aggregate vs. occurrence losses for European extra-tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Latchman, Shane; Higgs, Stephanie

    2013-04-01

    Catastrophe models are tools used primarily by the insurance industry to quantify the potential financial impact of natural disasters. Two key outputs from a catastrophe model are the aggregate and occurrence losses by return period. Aggregate losses are the total losses in any given windstorm season whereas occurrence losses are the maximum losses in a given windstorm season. Robust cat models for the European extra tropical cyclone catalogue allow for aggregate losses to be larger than occurrence losses particularly because there tend to be several ETC events in a given winter season and hence a notable difference between the largest loss and the total loss. Such information is vital to informing the purchase of reinstatements on a reinsurance program since knowledge of whether a large loss in a year is likely to be say twice the maximum limit purchased by an insured can determine whether that insured is adequately protected in the event of a series of large catastrophe losses in a given year. Such information therefore can help companies stay solvent and ultimately provides a social benefit through ensuring policyholders affected by disasters will be paid by their still solvent insurance companies. This paper describes the relationship between aggregate and occurrence losses both historically and as obtained from a cat model. The analysis shows that the aggregate/occurrence ratio tends to be higher for larger countries and lower as the return period under consideration increases. Also the aggregate/occurrence ratio tends to decrease when moving from Atlantic coast countries to those in central Europe.

  18. Characterization of surface wind and stress in tropical cyclone with scatterometer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, W. T.; Tang, W.; Xie, X.

    2014-12-01

    Wind is air in motion and stress is the momentum exchange between ocean and atmosphere. While the strong wind of a tropical cyclone (TC) causes destruction at landfall, it is the surface stress that drags down the TC. The relations that were established to retrieve moderate wind speeds from the normalized radar cross-section, or backscatter power, measured by Ku-band and C-band scatterometers do not apply well to TC-scale winds. It has been difficult to establish new relations at strong winds because credible strong winds coincident with scatterometer measurements are not sufficient. We will give credence to our hypothesis that there is no distinct physics of radar backscatter from ocean surface for weather phenomenon like the TC. The relation between backscatter and surface roughness or stress does not change under TC, and the same retrieval algorithm can be extended to the TC. The need for changes in wind retrieval algorithm is explained through the change of the drag coefficient that relates wind to stress in TC. We aspire to separate the sensor parameters that affect backscatter, such as, incident angle, azimuth angle, polarization and backscatter frequencies, from the secondary factors related to the physics of the air-sea interface and turbulent transport, such as air stability (shear and buoyance), air density, sea states, and sea sprays, so that we can establish a simple approximation of surface stress from the backscatter averaged over the relevant spatial and temporal scales. We established a relation between backscatter and surface stress over a moderate range of wind speed, where wind measurements coincident with satellite observations are abundant, and the drag coefficient is well established to convert wind measurements to stress. This relation is applied to retrieve stress from the scatterometer measurement in the high wind range of TC. The characteristic of the drag coefficient in TC-scale winds will be discussed. The difference between wind and

  19. Tropical cyclone-related socio-economic losses in the western North Pacific region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Welker, C.; Faust, E.

    2013-01-01

    The western North Pacific (WNP) is the area of the world most frequently affected by tropical cyclones (TCs). However, little is known about the socio-economic impacts of TCs in this region, probably because of the limited relevant loss data. Here, loss data from Munich RE's NatCatSERVICE database is used, a high-quality and widely consulted database of natural disasters. In the country-level loss normalisation technique we apply, the original loss data are normalised to present-day exposure levels by using the respective country's nominal gross domestic product at purchasing power parity as a proxy for wealth. The main focus of our study is on the question of whether the decadal-scale TC variability observed in the Northwest Pacific region in recent decades can be shown to manifest itself economically in an associated variability in losses. It is shown that since 1980 the frequency of TC-related loss events in the WNP exhibited, apart from seasonal and interannual variations, interdecadal variability with a period of about 22 yr - driven primarily by corresponding variations of Northwest Pacific TCs. Compared to the long-term mean, the number of loss events was found to be higher (lower) by 14% (9%) in the positive (negative) phase of the decadal-scale WNP TC frequency variability. This was identified for the period 1980-2008 by applying a wavelet analysis technique. It was also possible to demonstrate the same low-frequency variability in normalised direct economic losses from TCs in the WNP region. The identification of possible physical mechanisms responsible for the observed decadal-scale Northwest Pacific TC variability will be the subject of future research, even if suggestions have already been made in earlier studies.

  20. Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclones to Parameterized Convection in the NASA GEOS5 Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lim, Young-Kwon; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Reale, Oreste; Lee, Myong-In; Molod, Andrea M.; Suarez, Max J.

    2014-01-01

    The sensitivity of tropical cyclones (TCs) to changes in parameterized convection is investigated to improve the simulation of TCs in the North Atlantic. Specifically, the impact of reducing the influence of the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) scheme-based parameterized convection is explored using the Goddard Earth Observing System version5 (GEOS5) model at 0.25 horizontal resolution. The years 2005 and 2006 characterized by very active and inactive hurricane seasons, respectively, are selected for simulation. A reduction in parameterized deep convection results in an increase in TC activity (e.g., TC number and longer life cycle) to more realistic levels compared to the baseline control configuration. The vertical and horizontal structure of the strongest simulated hurricane shows the maximum lower-level (850-950hPa) wind speed greater than 60 ms and the minimum sea level pressure reaching 940mb, corresponding to a category 4 hurricane - a category never achieved by the control configuration. The radius of the maximum wind of 50km, the location of the warm core exceeding 10 C, and the horizontal compactness of the hurricane center are all quite realistic without any negatively affecting the atmospheric mean state. This study reveals that an increase in the threshold of minimum entrainment suppresses parameterized deep convection by entraining more dry air into the typical plume. This leads to cooling and drying at the mid- to upper-troposphere, along with the positive latent heat flux and moistening in the lower-troposphere. The resulting increase in conditional instability provides an environment that is more conducive to TC vortex development and upward moisture flux convergence by dynamically resolved moist convection, thereby increasing TC activity.

  1. Moisture transport by Atlantic tropical cyclones onto the North American continent

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Guangzhi; Osborn, Timothy J.; Matthews, Adrian J.

    2016-07-01

    Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are an important source of freshwater for the North American continent. Many studies have tried to estimate this contribution by identifying TC-induced precipitation events, but few have explicitly diagnosed the moisture fluxes across continental boundaries. We design a set of attribution schemes to isolate the column-integrated moisture fluxes that are directly associated with TCs and to quantify the flux onto the North American Continent due to TCs. Averaged over the 2004-2012 hurricane seasons and integrated over the western, southern and eastern coasts of North America, the seven schemes attribute 7-18 % (mean 14 % ) of total net onshore flux to Atlantic TCs. A reduced contribution of 10 % (range 9-11 % ) was found for the 1980-2003 period, though only two schemes could be applied to this earlier period. Over the whole 1980-2012 period, a further 8 % (range 6-9 % from two schemes) was attributed to East Pacific TCs, resulting in a total TC contribution of 19 % (range 17-22 % ) to the ocean-to-land moisture transport onto the North American continent between May and November. Analysis of the attribution uncertainties suggests that incorporating details of individual TC size and shape adds limited value to a fixed radius approach and TC positional errors in the ERA-Interim reanalysis do not affect the results significantly, but biases in peak wind speeds and TC sizes may lead to underestimates of moisture transport. The interannual variability does not appear to be strongly related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon.

  2. WRF simulation of the heavy rainfall over Metropolitan Manila, Philippines during tropical cyclone Ketsana: a sensitivity study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cruz, F. T.; Narisma, G. T.

    2016-08-01

    In September 2009, tropical cyclone Ketsana brought record rainfall over Metropolitan Manila, Philippines, resulting in widespread flooding and incapacitated the city for days. The extensive damage caused by heavy rainfall events such as this highlights the need to have an effective weather prediction model to forecast these extreme events for the Philippines. As an initial step towards this goal, this study aims to examine the sensitivity of the rainfall simulation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to the physical parameterization schemes related to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and microphysics processes. Comparison with observation data shows that the PBL scheme influences the spatial distribution of rainfall, whereas the microphysics scheme can affect rainfall magnitudes. The PBL scheme can also affect the intensity and track of the tropical cyclone as indicated in the surface latent heat flux and vertical velocity, as well as the magnitude of the mixing ratio of the different hydrometeors, which consequently affects the simulated rainfall. On the other hand, microphysics schemes can also influence the vertical distribution of each hydrometeor, likely due to differences in the treatment of ice phase processes and its interaction with the PBL scheme. Among the schemes tested, the model simulation using the ACM2 PBL and the WSM6 microphysics schemes captures this particular heavy rainfall event, in terms of spatial distribution, amount and timing. The results of this study show the importance of the PBL and microphysics schemes in simulating heavy rainfall, as well as the high potential of using WRF for future forecasts, especially for extreme weather events in the Philippines.

  3. An evaluation of the real-time tropical cyclone forecast skill of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System in the western North Pacific

    SciTech Connect

    Fiorino, M.; Goerss, J.S.; Jensen, J.J.; Harrison, E.J. Jr. Naval Research Lab., Monterey, CA Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center, Monterey, CA ARC Professional Services Group, Inc., Landover, MD )

    1993-03-01

    The paper evaluates the meteorological quality and operational utility of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) in forecasting tropical cyclones. It is shown that the model can provide useful predictions of motion and formation on a real-time basis in the western North Pacific. The meterological characteristics of the NOGAPS tropical cyclone predictions are evaluated by examining the formation of low-level cyclone systems in the tropics and vortex structure in the NOGAPS analysis and verifying 72-h forecasts. The adjusted NOGAPS track forecasts showed equitable skill to the baseline aid and the dynamical model. NOGAPS successfully predicted unusual equatorward turns for several straight-running cyclones. 35 refs.

  4. Statistical Aspects of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2013: Part 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2014-01-01

    A tropical cyclone is described as a warm-core, nonfrontal, synoptic-scale system that originates over tropical or subtropical waters, having organized deep convection and closed surface wind circulation (counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere) about a well defined center. When its sustained wind speed equals 34-63 kt, it is called a tropical (or subtropical) storm and is given a name (i.e., alternating male and female names, beginning in 1979); when its sustained wind speed equals 64-95 kt, it is called a hurricane (at least in the Eastern Pacific and North Atlantic basin); and when its sustained wind speed equals 96 kt or higher, it is called an intense or major hurricane (i.e., categories 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). Although tropical cyclones have been reported and described since the voyages of Columbus, a detailed record of their occurrences extends only from 1851 to the present, with the most reliable portion extending only from about 1945 to the present, owing to the use of near-continuous routine reconnaissance aircraft monitoring flights and the use of satellite imagery (beginning in 1960; see Davis). Even so, the record may still be incomplete, possibly missing at least one tropical cyclone per yearly hurricane season, especially prior to the use of continuous satellite monitoring. In fact, often an unnamed tropical cyclone is included in the year-end listing of events at the conclusion of the season, following post-season analysis (e.g., as happened in 2011 and 2013, each having one unnamed event). In this two-part Technical Publication (TP), statistical aspects of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones are examined for the interval 1960-2013, the weather satellite era. Part 1 examines some 25 parameters of tropical cyclones (e.g., frequencies, peak wind speed (PWS), accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), etc.), while part 2 examines the relationship of these parameters against specific climate-related factors. These studies are

  5. Assimilation of Doppler Weather Radar Data in WRF Model for Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Aila

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Srivastava, Kuldeep; Bhardwaj, Rashmi

    2014-08-01

    For the accurate and effective forecasting of a cyclone, it is critical to have accurate initial structure of the cyclone in numerical models. In this study, Kolkata Doppler weather radar (DWR) data were assimilated for the numerical simulation of a land-falling Tropical Cyclone Aila (2009) in the Bay of Bengal. To study the impact of radar data on very short-range forecasting of a cyclone's path, intensity and precipitation, both reflectivity and radial velocity were assimilated into the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model through the ARPS data assimilation system (ADAS) and cloud analysis procedure. Numerical experiment results indicated that radar data assimilation significantly improved the simulated structure of Cyclone Aila. Strong influences on hydrometeor structures of the initial vortex and precipitation pattern were observed when radar reflectivity data was assimilated, but a relatively small impact was observed on the wind fields at all height levels. The assimilation of radar wind data significantly improved the prediction of divergence/convergence conditions over the cyclone's inner-core area, as well as its wind field in the low-to-middle troposphere (600-900 hPa), but relatively less impact was observed on analyzed moisture field. Maximum surface wind speed produced from DWR-Vr and DWR-ZVr data assimilation experiments were very close to real-time values. The impact of radar data, after final analysis, on minimum sea level pressure was relatively less because the ADAS system does not adjust for pressure due to the lack of pressure observations, and from not using a 3DVAR balance condition that includes pressure. The greatest impact of radar data on forecasting was realized when both reflectivity and wind data (DWR-ZVr and DWR-ZVr00 experiment) were assimilated. It is concluded that after final analysis, the center of the cyclone was relocated very close to the observed position, and simulated cyclone maintained its intensity for a longer

  6. The human impact of tropical cyclones: a historical review of events 1980-2009 and systematic literature review.

    PubMed

    Doocy, Shannon; Dick, Anna; Daniels, Amy; Kirsch, Thomas D

    2013-04-16

    Background. Cyclones have significantly affected populations in Southeast Asia, the Western Pacific, and the Americas over the past quarter of a century. Future vulnerability to cyclones will increase due to factors including population growth, urbanization, increasing coastal settlement, and global warming. The objectives of this review were to describe the impact of cyclones on human populations in terms of mortality, injury, and displacement and, to the extent possible, identify risk factors associated with these outcomes. This is one of five reviews on the human impact of natural disasters. Methods. Data on the impact of cyclones were compiled using two methods, a historical review from 1980 to 2009 of cyclone events from multiple databases and a systematic literature review of publications ending in October 2012. Analysis included descriptive statistics and bivariate tests for associations between cyclone characteristics and mortality using Stata 11.0. Findings. There were 412,644 deaths, 290,654 injured, and 466.1 million people affected by cyclones between 1980 and 2009, and the mortality and injury burden was concentrated in less developed nations of Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific. Inconsistent reporting suggests this is an underestimate, particularly in terms of the injured and affected populations. The primary cause of cyclone-related mortality is drowning; in developed countries male gender was associated with increased mortality risk, whereas females experienced higher mortality in less developed countries. Conclusions. Additional attention to preparedness and early warning, particularly in Asia, can lessen the impact of future cyclones.

  7. The Human Impact of Tropical Cyclones: a Historical Review of Events 1980-2009 and Systematic Literature Review

    PubMed Central

    Doocy, Shannon; Dick, Anna; Daniels, Amy; Kirsch, Thomas D.

    2013-01-01

    Background. Cyclones have significantly affected populations in Southeast Asia, the Western Pacific, and the Americas over the past quarter of a century. Future vulnerability to cyclones will increase due to factors including population growth, urbanization, increasing coastal settlement, and global warming. The objectives of this review were to describe the impact of cyclones on human populations in terms of mortality, injury, and displacement and, to the extent possible, identify risk factors associated with these outcomes. This is one of five reviews on the human impact of natural disasters. Methods. Data on the impact of cyclones were compiled using two methods, a historical review from 1980 to 2009 of cyclone events from multiple databases and a systematic literature review of publications ending in October 2012. Analysis included descriptive statistics and bivariate tests for associations between cyclone characteristics and mortality using Stata 11.0. Findings. There were 412,644 deaths, 290,654 injured, and 466.1 million people affected by cyclones between 1980 and 2009, and the mortality and injury burden was concentrated in less developed nations of Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific. Inconsistent reporting suggests this is an underestimate, particularly in terms of the injured and affected populations. The primary cause of cyclone-related mortality is drowning; in developed countries male gender was associated with increased mortality risk, whereas females experienced higher mortality in less developed countries. Conclusions. Additional attention to preparedness and early warning, particularly in Asia, can lessen the impact of future cyclones. PMID:23857074

  8. Integrated impact of tropical cyclones on sea surface chlorophyll in the North Atlantic

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hanshaw, M.N.; Lozier, M.S.; Palter, J.B.

    2008-01-01

    Past studies have shown that surface chlorophyll-a concentrations increase in the wake of hurricanes. Given the reported increase in the intensity of North Atlantic hurricanes in recent years, increasing chlorophyll-a concentrations, perhaps an indication of increasing biological productivity, would be an expected consequence. However, in order to understand the impact of variable hurricane activity on ocean biology, the magnitude of the hurricane-induced chlorophyll increase relative to other events that stir or mix the upper ocean must be assessed. This study investigates the upper ocean biological response to tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic from 1997-2005. Specifically, we quantitatively compare the anomalous chlorophyll-a concentrations created by cyclone activity to the total distribution of anomalies in the subtropical waters. We show that the cyclone-induced chlorophyll-a increase has minimal impact on the integrated biomass budget, a result that holds even when taking into consideration the lagged and asymmetrical response of ocean color. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

  9. The evacuation of cairns hospitals due to severe tropical cyclone Yasi.

    PubMed

    Little, Mark; Stone, Theona; Stone, Richard; Burns, Jan; Reeves, Jim; Cullen, Paul; Humble, Ian; Finn, Emmeline; Aitken, Peter; Elcock, Mark; Gillard, Noel

    2012-09-01

    On February 2, 2011, Tropical Cyclone Yasi, the largest cyclone to cross the Australian coast and a system the size of Hurricane Katrina, threatened the city of Cairns. As a result, the Cairns Base Hospital (CBH) and Cairns Private Hospital (CPH) were both evacuated, the hospitals were closed, and an alternate emergency medical center was established in a sports stadium 15 km from the Cairns central business district. This article describes the events around the evacuation of 356 patients, staff, and relatives to Brisbane (approximately 1,700 km away by road), closure of the hospitals, and the provision of a temporary emergency medical center for 28 hours during the height of the cyclone. Our experience highlights the need for adequate and exercised hospital evacuation plans; the need for clear command and control with identified decision-makers; early decision-making on when to evacuate; having good communication systems with redundancy; ensuring that patients are adequately identified and tracked and have their medications and notes; ensuring adequate staff, medications, and oxygen for holding patients; and planning in detail the alternate medical facility safety and its role, function, and equipment. PMID:22978739

  10. The evacuation of cairns hospitals due to severe tropical cyclone Yasi.

    PubMed

    Little, Mark; Stone, Theona; Stone, Richard; Burns, Jan; Reeves, Jim; Cullen, Paul; Humble, Ian; Finn, Emmeline; Aitken, Peter; Elcock, Mark; Gillard, Noel

    2012-09-01

    On February 2, 2011, Tropical Cyclone Yasi, the largest cyclone to cross the Australian coast and a system the size of Hurricane Katrina, threatened the city of Cairns. As a result, the Cairns Base Hospital (CBH) and Cairns Private Hospital (CPH) were both evacuated, the hospitals were closed, and an alternate emergency medical center was established in a sports stadium 15 km from the Cairns central business district. This article describes the events around the evacuation of 356 patients, staff, and relatives to Brisbane (approximately 1,700 km away by road), closure of the hospitals, and the provision of a temporary emergency medical center for 28 hours during the height of the cyclone. Our experience highlights the need for adequate and exercised hospital evacuation plans; the need for clear command and control with identified decision-makers; early decision-making on when to evacuate; having good communication systems with redundancy; ensuring that patients are adequately identified and tracked and have their medications and notes; ensuring adequate staff, medications, and oxygen for holding patients; and planning in detail the alternate medical facility safety and its role, function, and equipment.

  11. Tropical cyclone effects on the equatorial ionosphere: First result from the Indian sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guha, Anirban; Paul, Bapan; Chakraborty, Monti; De, Barin Kumar

    2016-06-01

    Ionospheric response to the effects of tropical cyclone (TC) "Mahasen" in 2013 and Hudhud in 2014 is studied on the equatorial ionosphere over the Indian sector for the first time using Global Positioning System-derived total electron content (TEC) data. We observed an anomalous decrease of 3.8 TEC unit (1 TECU = 1016 el m-2) in vertical TEC (VTEC) value from the monthly mean for TC Mahasen and 2.1 TECU for TC Hudhud on the day of the landfall. We have also observed similar VTEC depletion of 1.5, 1.9, and 2.1 TECU for three different receivers on the landfall day for TC Vongfong over Japan. This anomalous decrease is observed over a wide zone around the trajectory of the cyclone during the active cyclonic storm stage. This observed anomaly might be the result of combined effect of TC-inspired gravity waves, ejection of neutral particles from the terminator of a TC, and lightning electric fields which redistribute the chemical constituents of the ionosphere by increasing the number of neutral particles at different ionospheric heights, thus decreasing the TEC over the satellite-receiver path.

  12. Impact of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific.

    PubMed

    Li, Wenhong; Li, Laifang; Deng, Yi

    2015-01-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most devastating weather systems affecting the United States and Central America (USCA). Here we show that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) strongly modulates TC activity over the North Atlantic (NA) and eastern North Pacific (eNP). During positive IPO phases, less (more) TCs were observed over NA (eNP), likely due to the presence of stronger (weaker) vertical wind shear and the resulting changes in genesis potential. Furthermore, TCs over NA tend to keep their tracks more eastward and recurve at lower latitudes during positive IPO phases. Such variations are largely determined by changes in steering flow instead of changes in genesis locations. Over the eNP, smaller track variations are observed at different IPO phases with stable, westward movements of TCs prevailing. These findings have substantial implications for understanding decadal to inter-decadal fluctuations in the risk of TC landfalls along USCA coasts. PMID:26205462

  13. Impact of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific

    PubMed Central

    Li, Wenhong; Li, Laifang; Deng, Yi

    2015-01-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most devastating weather systems affecting the United States and Central America (USCA). Here we show that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) strongly modulates TC activity over the North Atlantic (NA) and eastern North Pacific (eNP). During positive IPO phases, less (more) TCs were observed over NA (eNP), likely due to the presence of stronger (weaker) vertical wind shear and the resulting changes in genesis potential. Furthermore, TCs over NA tend to keep their tracks more eastward and recurve at lower latitudes during positive IPO phases. Such variations are largely determined by changes in steering flow instead of changes in genesis locations. Over the eNP, smaller track variations are observed at different IPO phases with stable, westward movements of TCs prevailing. These findings have substantial implications for understanding decadal to inter-decadal fluctuations in the risk of TC landfalls along USCA coasts. PMID:26205462

  14. The Climatic Intensification Rate of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, C.; Chen, C.

    2012-12-01

    The climatic intensification rate (IR) and the intensification hot zone (IHZ) of tropical cyclones (TCs, including tropical depression stage) over the Western North Pacific (WNP) during 1970 to 2010 are analyzed with the JTWC best-track dataset and the JMA best-track dataset. The area of interest is divided into two hundred 4x4-degree boxes, and the boxes in which the IR is 2.5 knots/6 hours or more are defined as the IHZ. We define the potential IHZ (PIHZ) and compare the PIHZ with the observed IHZ to find the controlling factors of PIHZ. By our analysis, the PIHZ are modulated by various environmental factors, including (a) 200-850 hPa vertical wind shear, (b) 700 hPa relative humidity (RH), (c) sea surface temperature (SST), (d) 200 hPa divergence, (e) 850 hPa absolute vorticity, and (f) the land condition. Among these factors, (a) - (c) have strong temporal variations and modulate the PIHZ most significantly. The 200 hPa divergence has relatively smaller influence, while (e) and (f) also affect the PIHZ, these two factors do not change a lot with time. Note that each factor is necessary to determine the boundaries of the PIHZ. The PIHZ will not be constructed correctly if any of the factors does not satisfy its threshold and the PIHZ can then be regard as an intersection area of the sub-areas satisfied each aforementioned factor. The regional IR connects closely with low-frequency oscillations. On the interannual time-scale, the IR shows notable negative relation with the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) over a widespread irregular region which extends from the west Philippine Sea toward the southeast ocean of Japan. On the interdecadal time-scale, the IR shows notable negative relation with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index over a widespread region which exists over the west-north part of the WNP. To summarize, the IR and the IHZ represent the intensification characteristics of TCs, and the regional IR is a good proxy for estimating the environmental

  15. Simulations of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nargis over the Bay of Bengal Using RIMES Operational System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raju, P. V. S.; Potty, Jayaraman; Mohanty, U. C.

    2012-10-01

    The Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES), an international, intergovernmental organization based in Thailand is engaged in disaster risk reduction over the Asia-Pacific region through early warning information. In this paper, RIMES' customized Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model has been used to evaluate the simulations of cyclone Nargis which hit Myanmar on 2 May 2008, the most deadly severe weather event in the history of Myanmar. The model covers a domain of 35ºE to 145ºE in the east—west direction and 12ºS to 40ºN in the north—south direction in order to cover Asia and east Africa with a resolution of 9 km in the horizontal and 28 vertical levels. The initial and boundary conditions for the simulations were provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) available at 1º lon/lat resolution. An attempt is being made to critically evaluate the simulation of cyclone Nargis by seven set of simulations in terms of track, intensity and landfall time of the cyclone. The seven sets of model simulations were initialized every 12 h starting from 0000 UTC 28 April to 01 May 2008. Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) precipitation (mm) is used to evaluate the performance of the simulations of heavy rainfall associated with the tropical cyclone. The track and intensity of the simulated cyclone are compared by making use of Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) data sets. The results indicate that the landfall time, the distribution and intensity of the rainfall, pressure and wind field are well simulated as compared with the JTWC estimates. The average landfall track error for all seven simulations was 64 km with an average time error of about 5 h. The average intensity error of central pressure in all the simulations were found out to be approximately 6 hPa more than the JTWC estimates and in the case of wind, the simulations under predicted it by an average of 12 m s-1.

  16. Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Monitoring with AMSU-A: Estimation of Maximum Sustained Wind Speeds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spencer, Roy; Braswell, William D.; Goodman, H. Michael (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The first Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit temperature sounder (AMSU-A) was launched on the NOAA-15 satellite on 13 May 1998. The AMSU-A's higher spatial and radiometric resolutions provide more useful information on the strength of the middle and upper tropospheric warm cores associated with tropical cyclones than have previous microwave temperature sounders. The gradient wind relationship suggests that the temperature gradient near the core of tropical cyclones increases nonlinearly with wind speed. We recast the gradient wind equation to include AMSU-A derived variables. Stepwise regression is used to determine which of these variables is most closely related to maximum sustained winds (V(sub max)). The satellite variables investigated include the radially averaged gradients at two spatial resolutions of AMSU-A channels 1 through 10 T(sub b) data (delta(sub r)T(sub b)), the squares of these gradients, a channel 15 based scattering index (SI-89), and area averaged T(sub b). Calculations of Tb and delta(sub r)T(sub b) from mesoscale model simulations of Andrew reveal the effects of the AMSU spatial sampling on the cyclone warm core presentation. Stepwise regression of 66 AMSU-A terms against National Hurricane Center (NHC) V(sub max) estimates from the 1998 and 1999 Atlantic hurricane season confirms the existence of a nonlinear relationship between wind speed and radially averaged temperature gradients near the cyclone warm core. Of six regression terms, four are dominated by temperature information, and two are interpreted as correcting for hydrometeor contamination. Jackknifed regressions were performed to estimate the algorithm performance on independent data. For the 82 cases that had in situ measurements of V(sub max), the average error standard deviation was 4.7 m/s. For 108 cases without in situ wind data, the average error standard deviation was 7.5 m/s. Operational considerations, including the detection of weak cyclones and false alarm reduction are

  17. Linkages of Remote Sea Surface Temperatures and Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Mediated by the African Monsoon

    SciTech Connect

    Taraphdar, Sourav; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Hagos, Samson M.

    2015-01-28

    Warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in North Atlantic and Mediterranean (NAMED) can influence tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the tropical East Atlantic by modulating summer convection over western Africa. Analysis of 30 years of observations show that the NAMED SST is linked to a strengthening of the Saharan heat low and enhancement of moisture and moist static energy in the lower atmosphere over West Africa, which favors a northward displacement of the monsoonal front. These processes also lead to a northward shift of the African easterly jet that introduces an anomalous positive vorticity from western Africa to the main development region (50W–20E; 10N–20N) of Atlantic TC. By modulating multiple processes associated with the African monsoon, this study demonstrates that warm NAMED SST explains 8% of interannual variability of Atlantic TC frequency. Thus NAME SST may provide useful predictability for Atlantic TC activity on seasonal-to-interannual time scale.

  18. The role of African easterly waves on Atlantic tropical cyclone variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hopsch, Susanna B.

    Coherent vorticity structures were identified at 850hPa over West Africa and the tropical Atlantic in the ERA40 reanalysis. The presence of two dominant source regions for stormtracks over the Atlantic was found. Results show that the southern stormtrack provides most storms that reach the MDR where most tropical cyclones develop. Marked seasonal variability in location and intensity of storms leaving the West African coast exists, which may influence the likelihood of downstream intensification and longevity. There exists considerable year-to-year variability in number of West African storms, both over land and continuing out over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. While the low-frequency variability is well correlated with Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, West African rainfall and SSTs, the interannual variability is found to be uncorrelated. In contrast, variance of 2-6-day-filtered meridional wind, which provides a synoptic-scale measure of AEW activity, shows a significant, positive correlation with TC activity at interannual timescales. The extent to which the nature of AEWs leaving the West African coast is important for influencing the probability of becoming named storms downstream was also explored. The ERA40 dataset has been analyzed for July through September from 1979-2001 to generate a climatology of AEWs leaving the West African coast. A composite view of the structure of the AEWs and their large-scale environment was obtained by identifying all AEWs that were associated with named storms over the MDR. This was compared to the composite of all disturbances that ultimately failed to develop. It is shown that substantial differences in structure and characteristics exist of AEWs that become associated with tropical cyclones and the ones that don't. The most important differences between developing and non-developing AEWs include: (1) Developing AEWs have a distinctive cold-core structure before reaching the West coast. (2) They transform towards more warm

  19. ESTIMATING THE BENEFIT OF TRMM TROPICAL CYCLONE DATA IN SAVING LIVES

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adler, Robert F.

    2005-01-01

    The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is a joint NASA/JAXA research mission launched in late 1997 to improve our knowledge of tropical rainfall processes and climatology (Kummerow et ai., 2000; Adler et ai., 2003). In addition to being a highly successful research mission, its data are available in real time and operational weather agencies in the U.S. and internationally are using TRMM data and images to monitor and forecast hazardous weather (tropical cyclones, floods, etc.). For example, in 2004 TRMM data were used 669 times for determining tropical cyclone location fixes (National Research Council, 2004). TRMM flies at a relatively low altitude, 400 km, and requires orbit adjustment maneuvers to maintain altitude against the small drag of the atmosphere. There is enough fuel used for these maneuvers remaining on TRMM for the satellite to continue flying until 2011-12. However, most of the remaining fuel may be used to perform a controlled re-entry of the satellite into the Pacific Ocean. The fuel threshold for this operation will be reached in the summer of 2005, although the maneuver would actually occur in late 2006 or 2007. The full science mission would end in 2005 under the controlled re-entry option. This re-entry option is related to the estimated probability of injury (1/5,000) that might occur during an uncontrolled re-entry of the satellite. If the estimated probability of injury exceeds 1/10,000 a satellite is a candidate for a possible controlled re-entry. In the TRMM case the NASA Safety Office examined the related issues and concluded that, although TRMM exceeded the formal threshold, the use of TRMM data in the monitoring and forecasting of hazardous weather gave a public safety benefit that compensated for TRMM slightly exceeding the orbital debris threshold (Martin, 2002). This conclusion was based in part on results of an independent panel during a workshop on benefits of TRMM data in concluded that the benefit of TRMM data in saving

  20. The Kinematics of Tropical Cyclogenesis for Typhoon Nuri as Observed during the Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 Field Campaign

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lussier, L.; Montgomery, M. T.; Bell, M. M.

    2012-12-01

    Aircraft reconnaissance data collected during the Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 field campaign are used to examine the kinematics of tropical cyclogenesis for Typhoon Nuri. Data from the first two missions into the pre-Nuri disturbance document the transition from a tropical wave to a tropical depression. Dropwindsonde-derived tangential wind profiles at several radii from the low-level circulation center indicate that the magnitude of low-level circulation increases and that this circulation maximum moves inward between the first and second reconnaissance missions. To compliment these findings, a three-dimensional variational analysis incorporating both dropwindsonde and aircraft radar data is conducted. These data are used to perform kinematic budget calculations at multiple distances from the low-level circulation center. By calculating the circulation tendency we are able to show net spin-up in the low-levels near the center and in the outer regions of the recirculating Kelvin's cat's eye. In these regions, spin-up due to convergence of absolute vorticity exceeds frictional spin-down for both Nuri missions. Additionally, we document areas of low-level vorticity generation through vertical stretching associated with convection. The areal coverage and intensity of these regions increase between the first and second Nuri missions. These findings suggest that the Kelvin's cat's eye circulation provides a favorable environment for low-level spin-up and vorticity organization on the mesoscale. Finally, radar analysis is performed on the convective-scale to document properties of convection in both Nuri missions.

  1. Response of Tropical Cyclone Tracks to Sea Surface Temperature in the Western North Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Inatsu, Masaru; Katsube, Kotaro

    2016-04-01

    A set of short-term experiments using a regional atmospheric model (RAM) were carried out to investigate the response of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks to sea surface temperature (SST) in the western North Pacific. For ten selected TC cases occurring during 2002-2007, a warm and a cold run are performed with 2 K and -2 K added to the SSTs uniformly over the model domain, respectively. The cases can be classified into three groups in terms of recurvature: recurved tracks in the warm and cold runs, a recurved track in the warm run and a non-recurved track in the cold run, and non-recurved tracks in both runs. Commonly the warm run produced northward movement of the TC faster than the cold run. The rapid northward migration can be mainly explained by the result that cyclonic circulation to the west of the TC is found in the steering flow in the warm run and it is not in the cold run. The beta effect is also activated under the warm SST environment. For the typical TC cases, a linear baroclinic model experiment is performed to examine how the cyclonic circulation is intensified in the warm run. The stationary linear response to diabatic heating obtained from the RAM experiment reveals that the intensified TC by the warm SST excites the cyclonic circulation in the lower troposphere to the west of the forcing position. The vorticity and thermodynamic equation analysis shows the detailed mechanism. The time scale of the linear response and the teleconnection are also discussed.

  2. Response of Tropical Cyclone Tracks to Sea Surface Temperature in the Western North Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Inatsu, Masaru; Katsube, Kotaro

    2016-04-01

    A set of short-term experiments using a regional atmospheric model (RAM) were carried out to investigate the response of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks to sea surface temperature (SST) in the western North Pacific. For ten selected TC cases occurring during 2002-2007, a warm and a cold run are performed with 2 K and ‑2 K added to the SSTs uniformly over the model domain, respectively. The cases can be classified into three groups in terms of recurvature: recurved tracks in the warm and cold runs, a recurved track in the warm run and a non-recurved track in the cold run, and non-recurved tracks in both runs. Commonly the warm run produced northward movement of the TC faster than the cold run. The rapid northward migration can be mainly explained by the result that cyclonic circulation to the west of the TC is found in the steering flow in the warm run and it is not in the cold run. The beta effect is also activated under the warm SST environment. For the typical TC cases, a linear baroclinic model experiment is performed to examine how the cyclonic circulation is intensified in the warm run. The stationary linear response to diabatic heating obtained from the RAM experiment reveals that the intensified TC by the warm SST excites the cyclonic circulation in the lower troposphere to the west of the forcing position. The vorticity and thermodynamic equation analysis shows the detailed mechanism. The time scale of the linear response and the teleconnection are also discussed.

  3. Global Tropical Moisture Exports and their Influence on Extratropical Cyclone Activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knippertz, P.; Wernli, H.; Gläser, G.

    2012-04-01

    Many case studies have shown that heavy precipitation events and rapid cyclogenesis in the extratropics can be fuelled by moist and warm tropical air masses. Often the tropical moisture export (TME) occurs through a longitudinally confined region in the subtropics. Here a climatology of TMEs to both hemispheres is constructed on the basis of seven-day forward trajectories, which were started daily from the tropical lower troposphere and which were required to reach a water vapour flux of at least 100 g kg-1 m s-1 somewhere poleward of 35 degrees. For this analysis 6-hourly European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim re-analysis data have been used for the 32-year period 1979-2010. A comparison with a TME climatology based upon the older ERA-40 re-analysis shows little sensitivity. The results are then related to the deepening of objectively identified (extratropical) cyclones in both hemispheres. On average TME trajectories move upwards and eastwards on their way across the subtropics in both hemispheres and are associated with both moisture and meridional-wind anomalies. TME shows four main regions of activity in both hemispheres: In the northern hemisphere these are the eastern Pacific ("Pineapple Express" region) with a marked activity maximum in boreal winter, the West Pacific with maximum activity in summer and autumn associated with the Asian monsoon, the narrow Great Plains region with a maximum in spring and summer associated with the North American monsoon and the western Atlantic or Gulf Stream region with a rather flat seasonal cycle. In the southern hemisphere activity peaks over the central and eastern Pacific, eastern South America and the adjacent Atlantic, the western Indian Ocean, and western Australia. Southern hemisphere TME activity peaks in boreal winter, particularly over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, which suggests a significant influence of northern hemispheric Rossby wave energy propagation across the equator

  4. Observed three-dimensional structure of ocean cooling induced by Pacific tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Guihua; Wu, Lingwei; Johnson, Nathaniel C.; Ling, Zheng

    2016-07-01

    Sea surface cooling along tropical cyclone (TC) tracks has been well observed, but a complete understanding of the full three-dimensional structure of upper ocean TC-induced cooling is still needed. In this study, observed ocean temperature profiles derived from Argo floats and TC statistics from 1996 to 2012 are used to determine the three-dimensional structure of TC-induced cooling over the northwest Pacific. The average TC-induced sea surface temperature change derived from Argo reaches -1.4°C, which agrees well with satellite-derived estimates. The Argo profiles further reveal that this cooling can extend to a depth of ~30 m and can persist for about 20 days. The time scale of cooling recovery is somewhat longer in subsurface layers between a depth of ~10-15 m. Over the ocean domain where the mixed layer is shallower (deeper), the cooling is stronger (weaker), shallower (deeper), and more (less) persistent. The effect of initial MLD on the cooling derived from Argo observations may be only half of the idealized piecewise continuous model of tropical cyclone. These findings have implications for the total upper ocean heat content change induced by northwest Pacific TCs.

  5. Mechanisms for Secondary Eyewall Formation in Tropical Cyclones: A Case Study of Hurricane Katrina (2005)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia-Rivera, J. M.; Lin, Y.

    2013-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used to simulate the last eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) of Hurricane Katrina (2005) just before it's landfall in the Louisiana coastline. In this study, we pursue a complete understanding of the physics behind the secondary eyewall formation (SEF) in tropical cyclones. The simulation results show the occurrence of the early stages of an ERC in the simulated storm just before landfall. This confirms that with the appropriate set of physics parameterization schemes, grid spacing and initial conditions, the numerical model is able to reproduce ERCs on certain tropical cyclones with no data assimilation or extra data inputs. Strong updrafts are observed to converge in a ring outside the primary eyewall of Hurricane Katrina (2005) suggesting SEF during that period. The increase of divergence outside the primary eyewall with an outer-ring of convergence forming above the boundary layer can be part of the mechanisms that lead to SEF. Also, potential vorticity (PV) field is analyzed for its possible relationship with the development of the secondary eyewall. This detailed study of the pre-ERC events in the inner-core of Hurricane Katrina can build the foundations for testing some of the existing hypotheses for the development of secondary eyewalls leading to new ideas behind their formation.

  6. The benefits of using short interval satellite images to derive winds for tropical cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodgers, E.; Gentry, R. C.; Shenk, W. E.; Oliver, V.

    1978-01-01

    During the 1975, 1976, and 1977, NOAA's National Environmental Satellite Service and NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center conducted a cooperative program to determine the optimum resolution and frequency of satellite images for deriving winds to study and forecast tropical cyclones. Rapid scan images were obtained at 7.5 minute interval from SMS-2 for hurricane Eloise and cyclone Caroline, and at 3 minute intervals from GOES-1 for tropical storms Belle, Holly, and Anita. Cloud motions were derived from these images using the Atmospheric and Oceanographic Information Processing System. Winds that were derived from the movement of upper and lower tropospheric level clouds using rapid scan data were compared with the 15 and 30 minute interval data. Greater than 10 (5) times as many clouds could be tracked to obtain winds using 3 and 7.5 minute rapid scan images as when using 15 or 30 minute interval images. A few bright areas within the central dense overcast which appeared to be moving with the winds at low levels were tracked.

  7. A New Method to estimate Daily Tropical Cyclone Precipitation from the GHCND Rain Gauges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, L.; Quiring, S. M.; Guikema, S. D.

    2014-12-01

    Tropical Cyclone Precipitation (TCP) contributes a large portion of very extreme hydrological events. An accurate estimation of a long term TCP climatology is an essential to understand how it varies in the past and will change in the future. The Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCND) provides a global coverage of territorial surface daily weather observations with a reasonable spatial density. In this study, we will develop a new method to estimate the TCP from the GHCND daily rain observations and other TC Track information. We will focus on all historical storms impacted the North America Continent (from both the Atlantic and the Pacific Sides) in this study. The new method will consider major factors that influence the estimation accuracy, including the variations in spatial density of rain gauges, sizes and the forward speed of storms, and high wind speeds causing the underestimate of precipitation by the rain bucket. We will provide both the point estimation at the rain gauge and gridded product at 0.25 degree. The gridded product will be finally validated by the precipitation estimation from TRMM. We will make tests and tune this method to optimally fit the available historical observations, so it can be applied for other regions in the world in the future. Key Words: Tropical Cyclone, Precipitation, New Estimation Method

  8. Evaluation of Vertical Motion Contributions Towards Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Under Varying Wind Shear

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harnos, D. S.; Nesbitt, S. W.

    2013-12-01

    Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction remains one of the primary challenges facing the meteorological community despite its dependence upon the secondary circulation being well established. Recent attention has focused upon the region residing within the radius of maximum wind due to its increased inertial stability, where heating is more efficient to develop the TC warm core. Here a method to objectively identify the 3-D evolution of the radius of maximum wind to act as an analysis region is utilized with Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations of rapid intensification episodes for two Atlantic basin tropical cyclones under low (Hurricane Ike 2008) and high (Hurricane Earl 2010) wind shear. The TC simulations are utilized to compare and contrast vertical motion and diabatic heating field evolutions relative to timing of rapid intensification. Further, a method to quantify three-dimensional individual updraft contributions relative to the maximum height by each updraft feature is used as a proxy for precipitation regimes (e.g. shallow cumulus, cumulus congestus, deep convection, and convective bursts). Quantified for each precipitation regime are vertical fluxes of mass, water vapor, cloud particles, and hydrometeors as they are intrinsically linked to diabatic heating and resultant magnitude of the ascending branch of the TC secondary circulation. The perspective yielded by each of these simulations enhances our understanding of TC intensification while also helping guide potential observing platform strategies and real-time forecasting applications.

  9. Characteristics of Tropical Cyclone Extreme Rainstorm and Its Preliminary Causes over the Hainan Island

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Xianling; Ren, Fumin; Ma, Zhuguo; Cai, Qinbo

    2016-04-01

    From the viewpoint of tropical cyclone (TC) process maximum daily rainfall (TPMDR), characteristics of TC extreme rainstorms (TCERs) over the Hainan Island from 1969 to 2014 are analyzed using station daily precipitation data, Shanghai Typhoon Institute TC best track data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Frequencies of TPMDR ≥50mm, ≥100mm, and ≥250mm show significant decreasing trend (-0.7 times(10yr)-1), weak decreasing trend (-0.2 times(10yr)-1), and weak increasing trend (0.1 times(10yr)-1), respectively. TPMDRs of the three different levels are all frequent during July to October, with peak frequencies occurring mainly in September and August. For regional distribution, TPMDRs show an active center over western Hainan especially at the Changjiang station in frequency and intensity. Meanwhile, the TCs which cause extreme rainstorm over western Hainan display a main movement direction of northwestward tracks. Causes diagnoses of extreme rainstorm over western Hainan show that, the main factors include topography, TC movement speed, TC structure which deals with TC track and TC intensity, and the intensity of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon. Key words: tropical cyclones, TC extreme rainstorm, characteristics, causes, the Hainan Island

  10. An Estimate of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for the 2010 Hurricane Season

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2010-01-01

    Estimates are presented for the tropical cyclone activity expected for the 2010 North Atlantic basin hurricane season. It is anticipated that the 2010 season will be more active than the 2009 season, reflecting increased frequencies more akin to that of the current more active phase that has been in vogue since 1995. Averages (+/- 1 sd) during the current more active phase are 14.5+/-4.7, 7.8+/-3.2, 3.7+/-1.8, and 2+/- 2, respectively, for the number of tropical cyclones (NTC), the number of hurricanes (NH), the number of major hurricanes (NMH), and the number of United States (U.S.) land-falling hurricanes (NUSLFH). Based on the "usual" behavior of the 10-yma parametric first differences, one expects NTC = 19+/-2, NH = 14+/-2, NMH = 7+/-2, and NUSLFH = 4+/-2 for the 2010 hurricane season; however, based on the "best guess" 10-yma values of surface-air temperature at the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland) and the Oceanic Nino Index, one expects NTC > or equals 16, NH > or equals 14, NMH > or equals 7, and NUSLFH > or equals 6.

  11. Punctuated global tropical cyclone activity over the past 5,000 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nott, Jonathan; Forsyth, Anthony

    2012-07-01

    There are now a substantial number of millennial scale records of tropical cyclones from a variety of locations globally. Some of these, such as those in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, show patterns of long-term, generally intense, tropical cyclone (TC) behaviour that have been suggested to be due to either variations in ENSO or shifts in the position of the Atlantic High pressure system and the jet stream. Comparisons are made here of the sedimentary overwash records from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean Basin with the overwash records from the north-west Pacific and beach ridge records from the south-west Pacific and south east Indian Ocean basins. There is a substantial degree of synchroneity in global intense TC behaviour over the past 3,000 to 5,000 years. One of the most striking aspects of these records is they all display extended alternating periods (centuries to millennia) of relative quiescence and heightened intense TC activity irrespective of both the resolution and type of long-term TC record. The cause(s) of this punctuated activity are at present difficult to identify but are likely exogenic in origin rather than due to an intrinsic aspect of the records or the methods used to derive them. The identification of punctuated global long-term TC behaviour is important for understanding future TC activity and for assessing risk to coastal communities.

  12. Modeling High-Impact Weather and Climate: Lessons From a Tropical Cyclone Perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Done, James; Holland, Greg; Bruyere, Cindy; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Suzuki-Parker, Asuka

    2012-06-01

    Although the societal impact of a weather event increases with the rarity of the event, our current ability to assess extreme events and their impacts is limited by not only rarity but also by current model fidelity and a lack of understanding of the underlying physical processes. This challenge is driving fresh approaches to assess high-impact weather and climate. Recent lessons learned in modeling high-impact weather and climate are presented using the case of tropical cyclones as an illustrative example. Through examples using the Nested Regional Climate Model to dynamically downscale large-scale climate data the need to treat bias in the driving data is illustrated. Domain size, location, and resolution are also shown to be critical and should be guided by the need to: include relevant regional climate physical processes; resolve key impact parameters; and to accurately simulate the response to changes in external forcing. The notion of sufficient model resolution is introduced together with the added value in combining dynamical and statistical assessments to fill out the parent distribution of high-impact parameters. Finally, through the example of a tropical cyclone damage index, direct impact assessments are presented as powerful tools that distill complex datasets into concise statements on likely impact, and as highly effective communication devices. Capsule: "Combining dynamical modeling of high-impact weather using traditional regional climate models with statistical techniques allows for comprehensive sampling of the full distribution, uncertainty estimation, direct assessment of impacts, and increased confidence in future changes."

  13. Modeling High-Impact Weather and Climate: Lessons From a Tropical Cyclone Perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Done, James; Holland, Greg; Bruyere, Cindy; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Suzuki-Parker, Asuka

    2013-10-19

    Although the societal impact of a weather event increases with the rarity of the event, our current ability to assess extreme events and their impacts is limited by not only rarity but also by current model fidelity and a lack of understanding of the underlying physical processes. This challenge is driving fresh approaches to assess high-impact weather and climate. Recent lessons learned in modeling high-impact weather and climate are presented using the case of tropical cyclones as an illustrative example. Through examples using the Nested Regional Climate Model to dynamically downscale large-scale climate data the need to treat bias in the driving data is illustrated. Domain size, location, and resolution are also shown to be critical and should be guided by the need to: include relevant regional climate physical processes; resolve key impact parameters; and to accurately simulate the response to changes in external forcing. The notion of sufficient model resolution is introduced together with the added value in combining dynamical and statistical assessments to fill out the parent distribution of high-impact parameters. Finally, through the example of a tropical cyclone damage index, direct impact assessments are resented as powerful tools that distill complex datasets into concise statements on likely impact, and as highly effective communication devices.

  14. Rossby wave energy dispersion from tropical cyclone in zonal basic flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Wenli; Fei, Jianfang; Huang, Xiaogang; Liu, Yudi; Ma, Zhanhong; Yang, Lu

    2016-04-01

    This study investigates tropical cyclone energy dispersion under horizontally sheared flows using a nonlinear barotropic model. In addition to common patterns, unusual features of Rossby wave trains are also found in flows with constant vorticity and vorticity gradients. In terms of the direction of the energy dispersion, the wave train can rotate clockwise and elongate southwestward under anticyclonic circulation (ASH), which contributes to the reenhancement of the tropical cyclone (TC). The wave train even splits into two obvious wavelike trains in flows with a southward vorticity gradient (WSH). Energy dispersed from TCs varies over time, and variations in the intensity of the wave train components typically occur in two stages. Wave-activity flux diagnosis and ray tracing calculations are extended to the frame that moves along with the TC to reveal the concrete progress of wave propagation. The direction of the wave-activity flux is primarily determined by the combination of the basic flow and the TC velocity. Along the flux, the distribution of pseudomomentum effectively illustrates the development of wave trains, particularly the rotation and split of wave propagation. Ray tracing involves the quantitative tracing of wave features along rays, which effectively coincide with the wave train regimes. Flows of a constant shear (parabolic meridional variation) produce linear (nonlinear) wave number variations. For the split wave trains, the real and complex wave number waves move along divergent trajectories and are responsible for different energy dispersion ducts.

  15. Objective Operational Utilization of Satellite Microwave Scatterometer Observations of Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cardone, Vincent J.; Cox, Andrew T.

    2000-01-01

    This study has demonstrated that high-resolution scatterometer measurements in tropical cyclones and other high-marine surface wind regimes may be retrieved accurately for wind speeds up to about 35 mls (1-hour average at 10 m) when the scatterometer data are processed through a revised geophysical model function, and a spatial adaptive algorithm is applied which utilizes the fact that wind direction is so tightly constrained in tile inner core of severe marine storms that wind direction may be prescribed from conventional data. This potential is demonstrated through case studies with NSCAT data in a severe West Pacific Typhoon (Violet, 1996) and an intense North Atlantic hurricane (Lili, 1996). However, operational scatterometer winds from NSCAT and QuickScat in hurricanes and severe winter storms are biased low in winds above 25 m/s. We have developed an inverse model to specify the entire surface wind field about a tropical cyclone from operational QuickScat scatterometer measurements within 150 nm of a storm center with the restriction that only wind speeds up to 20 m/s are used until improved model function are introduced. The inverse model is used to specify the wind field over the entire life-cycle of Hurricane Floyd (1999) for use to drive an ocean wave model. The wind field compares very favorably with wind fields developed from the copious aircraft flight level winds obtained in this storm.

  16. The Air-Sea Interface and Surface Stress under Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soloviev, Alexander; Lukas, Roger; Donelan, Mark; Ginis, Isaac

    2013-04-01

    Air-sea interaction dramatically changes from moderate to very high wind speed conditions (Donelan et al. 2004). Unresolved physics of the air-sea interface are one of the weakest components in tropical cyclone prediction models. Rapid disruption of the air-water interface under very high wind speed conditions was reported in laboratory experiments (Koga 1981) and numerical simulations (Soloviev et al. 2012), which resembled the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability at an interface with very large density difference. Kelly (1965) demonstrated that the KH instability at the air-sea interface can develop through parametric amplification of waves. Farrell and Ioannou (2008) showed that gustiness results in the parametric KH instability of the air-sea interface, while the gusts are due to interacting waves and turbulence. The stochastic forcing enters multiplicatively in this theory and produces an exponential wave growth, augmenting the growth from the Miles (1959) theory as the turbulence level increases. Here we complement this concept by adding the effect of the two-phase environment near the mean interface, which introduces additional viscosity in the system (turning it into a rheological system). The two-phase environment includes air-bubbles and re-entering spray (spume), which eliminates a portion of the wind-wave wavenumber spectrum that is responsible for a substantial part of the air sea drag coefficient. The previously developed KH-type interfacial parameterization (Soloviev and Lukas 2010) is unified with two versions of the wave growth model. The unified parameterization in both cases exhibits the increase of the drag coefficient with wind speed until approximately 30 m/s. Above this wind speed threshold, the drag coefficient either nearly levels off or even slightly drops (for the wave growth model that accounts for the shear) and then starts again increasing above approximately 65 m/s wind speed. Remarkably, the unified parameterization reveals a local minimum

  17. Tropical Cyclone Outflow Structure Observed during the Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3) and Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) Experiments (2012-2014)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Black, P. G.; Hendricks, E. A.; Doyle, J. D.; Moskaitis, J.; Velden, C.

    2014-12-01

    Little is known about the detailed vertical and horizontal structure of the Tropical Cyclone (TC) outflow layer owing to lack of in-situ observations in this region over the years. We hypothesize that TC outflow structure change due either to external environmental interactions or internal dynamical changes are related to TC intensity changes, making the outflow layer an important region of study for improvement of TC predictability. Dropsonde profiles through TC outflow layers were obtained during the Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3) experiment (2012-2014) and the Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) experiment (2014). Using mini-dropsondes deployed with the Airborne Vertical Atmospheric Profiling System (AVAPS) from a NASA Global Hawk and eXpendable Digital Dropsondes (XDDs) deployed with the High Definition Sounding System (HDSS) from a NASA WB-57F, new insights into the vertical structure of the TC outflow layer have been obtained. Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) show that 'far-field' outflow jet dropsondes in Hurricane Leslie (2012) were obtained during a period of jet development and deformation in response the 'pincer effect' of an upper trough to the east and an upper cold low to west of Leslie. We speculate that the resulting deformation of the outflow layer and associated jet feature may have been responsible for limiting further development of Leslie. AMVs in Hurricane Nadine (2012) and pre-TC Gabrielle (2013) showed that outflow jets sampled by dropsondes developed over time scales of several hours. Wind profile observations in outflow jet 'roots' near 'convective bursts' showed that they were weaker and thicker near the convection and became thinner and stronger downstream as the 'far-field' region was sampled. All dropsonde profiles showed that the outflow layer contained numerous thin isothermal layers and layers of enhanced vertical wind shear. These numerous thin unstable layers were characterized by a super-critical Richardson number in

  18. Polychaete Community of a Marine Protected Area along the West Coast of India-Prior and Post the Tropical Cyclone, Phyan.

    PubMed

    Sukumaran, Soniya; Vijapure, Tejal; Kubal, Priti; Mulik, Jyoti; Rokade, M A; Salvi, Shailesh; Thomas, Jubin; Naidu, V S

    2016-01-01

    Tropical cyclones are extreme random meteorological events that can have profound implications to coastal biodiversities. Given that the frequency, intensity and duration of these events are poised to increase due to the global climate change, understanding the ecological impacts of such erratic occurrences becomes imperative to devise better management strategies. The eventful passage of the tropical cyclone, Phyan, along the northwestern coast of India in November 2009, coupled with the availability of historical data presented a rare opportunity to elucidate the consequences on the polychaete assemblages of the Malvan Marine Sanctuary and their subsequent recovery. This was achieved by comparison of the pre- and post-Phyan seasonal data from four different sites in and around the Sanctuary. MDS analyses and polychaete community parameters suggested conspicuous cyclone related effects on the polychaete community characteristics in the three outer stations off Malvan, whereas the relatively protected bay station remained more or less unscathed. Impacts, attributable to the cyclone apart from seasonal variations, included changes in polychaete composition, reductions in total polychaete density, species diversity, evenness and functional groups. Dominance of the opportunistic polychaete, Paraprionospiopatiens was all pervasive just after Phyan, resulting in poor diversity and evenness values. In the outer stations, diverse feeding modes present prior to the cyclone were replaced by microphagous feeders post the disturbance. However, the study also observed complete recovery as substantiated by the improvement inpolychaete density, diversity indices and re-instatement of multiple feeding guilds in affected areas. This resilience of the coastal waters off Malvan is attributed to its marine protected status, implying that reduced human interference aided rapid revival of damaged ecosystems. PMID:27556895

  19. Polychaete Community of a Marine Protected Area along the West Coast of India—Prior and Post the Tropical Cyclone, Phyan

    PubMed Central

    Kubal, Priti; Mulik, Jyoti; Rokade, M. A.; Salvi, Shailesh; Thomas, Jubin; Naidu, V. S.

    2016-01-01

    Tropical cyclones are extreme random meteorological events that can have profound implications to coastal biodiversities. Given that the frequency, intensity and duration of these events are poised to increase due to the global climate change, understanding the ecological impacts of such erratic occurrences becomes imperative to devise better management strategies. The eventful passage of the tropical cyclone, Phyan, along the northwestern coast of India in November 2009, coupled with the availability of historical data presented a rare opportunity to elucidate the consequences on the polychaete assemblages of the Malvan Marine Sanctuary and their subsequent recovery. This was achieved by comparison of the pre- and post-Phyan seasonal data from four different sites in and around the Sanctuary. MDS analyses and polychaete community parameters suggested conspicuous cyclone related effects on the polychaete community characteristics in the three outer stations off Malvan, whereas the relatively protected bay station remained more or less unscathed. Impacts, attributable to the cyclone apart from seasonal variations, included changes in polychaete composition, reductions in total polychaete density, species diversity, evenness and functional groups. Dominance of the opportunistic polychaete, Paraprionospiopatiens was all pervasive just after Phyan, resulting in poor diversity and evenness values. In the outer stations, diverse feeding modes present prior to the cyclone were replaced by microphagous feeders post the disturbance. However, the study also observed complete recovery as substantiated by the improvement inpolychaete density, diversity indices and re-instatement of multiple feeding guilds in affected areas. This resilience of the coastal waters off Malvan is attributed to its marine protected status, implying that reduced human interference aided rapid revival of damaged ecosystems. PMID:27556895

  20. Possible relationship between East Asian summer monsoon and western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis frequency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Ki-Seon; Cha, Yumi; Kim, Hae-Dong; Kang, Sung-Dae

    2016-04-01

    In the present study, the fact that strong positive correlations have existed between East Asian summer monsoons (EASMs) and western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency over the last 37 years was found. To figure out the cause of these correlations, 7 years (positive East Asian summer monsoon index (EASMI) phase) that have the highest values and 7 years (negative EASMI phase) that have the lowest values in the normalized EASM index were selected and the differences in averages between the two phases were analyzed. In the positive EASMI phase, TCs mainly occurred in the northwestern waters of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific and showed a tendency to move from the far eastern waters of the Philippines, pass the East China Sea, and move northward toward Korea and Japan. On the 500 hPa streamline, whereas anomalous anticyclones developed in the East Asia middle-latitude region, anomalous cyclones developed in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific. Therefore, in this phase, whereas EASMs were weakened, western North Pacific summer monsoons (WNPSMs) were strengthened so that some more TCs could occur. In addition, in the case of the East China Sea and the southern waters of Japan located between the two anomalous pressure systems, TCs could move some more toward the East Asia middle-latitude region in this phase. According to an analysis of the 850 hPa relative vorticity, negative anomalies were strengthened in the East Asia middle-latitude region while positive anomalies were strengthened in the region south to 25 N. Therefore, in the positive EASMI phase, whereas EASMs were weakened, WNPSMs were strengthened so that some more TCs could occur. According to an analysis of the 850 and 200 hPa horizontal divergence, whereas anomalous downward flows were strengthened in the East Asia middle-latitude region, anomalous upward flows were strengthened in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific. According to an analysis

  1. Global Tropical Cyclone Winds from the QuikSCAT and OceanSAT-2 Scatterometers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stiles, B. W.; Danielson, R. E.; Poulsen, W. L.; Fore, A.; Brennan, M. J.; Shen, T. J.; Hristova-Veleva, S. M.

    2012-12-01

    We have produced a comprehensive set of tropical cyclone storm wind retrieval scenes for all ten years of QuikSCAT data and one year of OceanSAT-2 data. The wind speeds were corrected for rain and optimized to avoid saturation at high winds using an artificial neural network method similar to that in [1] and [2]. The QuikSCAT wind imagery and the quantitative speed, direction, and backscatter data can be obtained at http://tropicalcyclone.jpl.nasa.gov. The QuikSCAT wind speeds have been validated against best track intensity (i.e., maximum wind speeds), H*WIND tropical cyclone wind model analysis fields, and wind speeds from aircraft overflights (GPS drop wind sondes and step frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR) wind measurements). Storms from all basins are included for a total of 21600 scenes over the ten years of nominal QuikSCAT operations. Of these, 11435 scenes include the best track center of the cyclone in the retrieved wind field. Among these, 3295 were of tropical storms and 788, 367, 330, 289, and 55 were of category 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 hurricanes, respectively, on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. In addition to the QuikSCAT hurricane winds, we have also processed one year of wind fields from the Indian Space Research organization (ISRO) OceanSAT-2 satellite. OceanSAT-2 employs a scanning pencil beam Ku-band scatterometer with a design similar to QuikSCAT. JPL and NOAA have been working extensively with ISRO to aid in cross calibration between OceanSAT-2 and QuikSCAT. Toward this end the QuikSCAT instrument has been repointed in order to acquire data at the OceanSAT-2 incidence angles, and several meetings in India between the teams have taken place. The neural network that was trained on QuikSCAT data was used to retrieve OceanSAT-2 winds. The backscatter inputs to the network were transformed to match the histograms of the corresponding values in the QuikSCAT data set. We examine the scatterometer winds to investigate the relationship between

  2. Extreme Rainfall Intensities and Long-term Rainfall Risk from Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Langousis, A.; Veneziano, D.

    2009-04-01

    We develop a methodology to estimate the rate of extreme rainfalls at coastal sites due to tropical cyclones (TCs). A basic component of the methodology is the probability distribution of ID,max, the maximum rainfall intensity at the site over a period D during the passage of a TC with given characteristics Î&.cedil; The long-term rainfall risk is obtained by combining the conditional distribution of (ID,max|Î&)cedil; with a recurrence model for Î&.cedil; The lack of extensive TC rainfall records and the many parameters needed to characterize the motion, size and intensity of tropical cyclones make it difficult to estimate the distribution of (ID,max|Î&)cedil; directly from data. Hence, we have resorted to a combination of physical modeling to obtain the mean rainfall field for a TC with given characteristics Î&,cedil; and statistical analysis to include storm-to-storm variability, as well as intra-storm rainfall fluctuations due to rainbands and local convection. The vector Î& cedil;includes the maximum tangential wind velocity V max, the radius of maximum winds Rmax and the translation speed V t of the storm, in addition to the distance y of the coastal site from the TC center. The physical model of TC rainfall uses an extension of Smith's (1968) boundary layer (BL) formulation and simple moist air thermodynamics to calculate the vertical outflow of water vapor from the top of the TC boundary layer, which is assumed to be all converted into rainfall. However, the calculated rainfall field is not simply proportional to the vertical flux of moisture. This is because (1) the trajectory of moisted air parcels has an outward slant depending on distance from the TC center and (2) the ascending air parcels and descending rain drops are advected into a helical motion by the cyclonic circulation; therefore a parcel of air that leaves the TC boundary layer contributes rainfall to a range of azimuthal locations. The statistical component of the model characterizes the

  3. Integrating and Visualizing Tropical Cyclone Data Using the Real Time Mission Monitor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goodman, H. Michael; Blakeslee, Richard; Conover, Helen; Hall, John; He, Yubin; Regner, Kathryn

    2009-01-01

    Laboratory in the joint development of a Tropical Cyclone Integrated Data Exchange and Analysis System (TC IDEAS) which will serve as a web portal for access to tropical cyclone data, visualizations and model output.

  4. Observed recent trends in tropical cyclone rainfall over the North Atlantic and the North Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lau, William K. M.; Zhou, Y. P.

    2012-02-01

    In this study, we use Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission and Global Precipitation Climatology Project rainfall data together with historical storm track records to examine the trend of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall in the North Atlantic and the northeast and northwest Pacific during two recent decades (1988-1997 and 1998-2007). We find that there is an approximate linear relationship between TC rain (defined as accumulated total rainfall along storm tracks) and storm intensity as classified by the Saffir-Simpson scheme. During the data period, total TC rain has trended upward at a rate of 23.8% ± 23.5% per decade over the North Atlantic but downward with a rate of 25.1% ± 19.7% per decade over the northeast Pacific. Over the northwest Pacific, there is a reduction in TC rain of approximately 20.9% ± 13.5% per decade, possibly associated with a strong interdecadal-scale oscillation. Storm characteristics such as duration and TC rain energy per storm (EPS) remain unchanged for the North Atlantic and the northeast Pacific. For the northwest Pacific, a 28% ± 18% reduction in EPS from the first decade (1988-1997) to the second decade (1998-2007) is found with the track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Analyses of the probability distribution function of TC rain show that there is an overall increase in TC frequency across the entire TC rainfall spectrum over the North Atlantic but an overall decrease for the northeast Pacific. In the northwest Pacific, we find a redistribution in EPS with decreased frequency in heavy-rain storms and increased frequency in light-rain storms. Overall, trends in TC rain in the different ocean basins are consistent with long-term relative changes in the ambient large-scale sea surface temperature and vertical wind shear and, to a lesser extent, tropical cyclone Maximum Potential Intensity.

  5. The Aeroclipper, a new device to explore tropical convective systems and cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Philippe, Duvel Jean

    The Aeroclipper is a new balloon device designed to perform relatively long flights (up to 30 days) in the surface layer (under 50 m) over remote ocean regions. The balloon carries a guide rope floating at the surface of the ocean. The Aeroclipper moves on quasi-Lagrangian trajectories, performing in situ measurements in the atmospheric surface layer and at the surface of the ocean. The Aeroclipper is able to measure low level dynamics and surface turbulent fluxes for several weeks over remote regions of the tropical oceans. Like superpressure balloons in the boundary layer, an Aeroclipper is attracted toward convective regions by the low-level wind convergence generated by the associated low surface pressure. Compared to Eulerian platforms (moored buoys) or to oceanographic ships, these balloons are thus expected to increase atmospheric boundary layer sampling in active convective systems. During the Validation of the Aeroclipper System under Convective Occurrences (VASCO) test experiment (Indian Ocean in January and February 2007), two Aeroclippers survived in tropical cyclone Dora, enduring wind speed larger than 40 ms-1 and giving continuous estimates of tangential and radial winds as a function of the distance from the eye during the convergence phase. The two Aeroclippers then stayed in the eye of Dora for more than a week and remained captured in the low-pressure center when Dora became an extra-tropical depression. Due to this success in mechanical design, and despite some deficiencies of the present system that require new developments, we think that such a device has a good potential for further use, especially for cyclone nowcasting. The scientific objectives of the Aeroclipper; its current design and instrumentation; some preliminary results of the VASCO test experiment; and future experiments will be presented.

  6. A History of Tropical Cyclone Events, their Spatial-temporal Distributions and Effects in Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alam, M. E.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Momtaz, S.; Calgaro, E.

    2012-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) frequently devastate large areas, take numerous lives, and damage extensive property in the coastal and island areas of Bangladesh. A review of the literature about cyclone events in Bangladesh indicates that previous research has mainly focused on events occurring after AD1959. In addition, limited work has examined historical data in order to understand the spatial-temporal pattern of TC occurrences and their associated losses. We rectify this gap by developing a new TC database that goes beyond the present regional TC databases by maximising the use of all available documentary sources. We then analyse the spatial-temporal pattern of TC occurrence and reconstruct their effects in Bangladesh. This new database consists of 254 TCs that occurred between AD1000 and 2009 in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). A total of 184 events directly struck Bangladesh between AD1484 and 2009. Of these 184 events, the precise location of landfall was not available for 11 events. Of the remaining 173 events, Chittagong was struck by 43 TCs, Barisal and Khulna by 42 each. Noakhali and Cox's Bazar were struck by 29 and 17 TCs respectively. Although, Chittagong was struck by more TC landfalls than any other coastal segment, Barisal was identified as high-risk place in terms of the occurrence of deaths. The findings suggest that prior to AD1900, there is a lack of data on the occurrence of TCs and this paucity of data increases the further back in time. Within the new dataset, inconsistencies in reported storm surge height, wind speed and exaggerations in the reporting of deaths are identified and discussed. In Bangladesh, a total of 2,665,636 human deaths occurred in association with the 184 TCs between AD1484 and 2009. Between AD1923 and 2009, 13 TCs caused 9,431,225 people to become homeless. Analysis of the deaths and damage associated with TCs in AD1970, AD1991 and AD2007 indicate that whilst the number of deaths decreased between events, the amount of economic

  7. High-Resolution Modeling to Assess Tropical Cyclone Activity in Future Climate Regimes

    SciTech Connect

    Lackmann, Gary

    2013-06-10

    Applied research is proposed with the following objectives: (i) to determine the most likely level of tropical cyclone intensity and frequency in future climate regimes, (ii) to provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty in these predictions, and (iii) to improve understanding of the linkage between tropical cyclones and the planetary-scale circulation. Current mesoscale weather forecasting models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are capable of simulating the full intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) with realistic structures. However, in order to accurately represent both the primary and secondary circulations in these systems, model simulations must be configured with sufficient resolution to explicitly represent convection (omitting the convective parameterization scheme). Most previous numerical studies of TC activity at seasonal and longer time scales have not utilized such explicit convection (EC) model runs. Here, we propose to employ the moving nest capability of WRF to optimally represent TC activity on a seasonal scale using a downscaling approach. The statistical results of a suite of these high-resolution TC simulations will yield a realistic representation of TC intensity on a seasonal basis, while at the same time allowing analysis of the feedback that TCs exert on the larger-scale climate system. Experiments will be driven with analyzed lateral boundary conditions for several recent Atlantic seasons, spanning a range of activity levels and TC track patterns. Results of the ensemble of WRF simulations will then be compared to analyzed TC data in order to determine the extent to which this modeling setup can reproduce recent levels of TC activity. Next, the boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature, tropopause height, and thermal/moisture profiles) from the recent seasons will be altered in a manner consistent with various future GCM/RCM scenarios, but that preserves the large-scale shear and incipient disturbance

  8. The importance of vegetation change in the prediction of future tropical cyclone flood statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irish, J. L.; Resio, D.; Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Weiss, R.

    2015-12-01

    Global sea level rise is a near certainty over the next century (e.g., Stocker et al. 2013 [IPCC] and references therein). With sea level rise, coastal topography and land cover (hereafter "landscape") is expected to change and tropical cyclone flood hazard is expected to accelerate (e.g., Irish et al. 2010 [Ocean Eng], Woodruff et al. 2013 [Nature], Bilskie et al. 2014 [Geophys Res Lett], Ferreira et al. 2014 [Coast Eng], Passeri et al. 2015 [Nat Hazards]). Yet, the relative importance of sea-level rise induced landscape change on future tropical cyclone flood hazard assessment is not known. In this paper, idealized scenarios are used to evaluate the relative impact of one class of landscape change on future tropical cyclone extreme-value statistics in back-barrier regions: sea level rise induced vegetation migration and loss. The joint probability method with optimal sampling (JPM-OS) (Resio et al. 2009 [Nat Hazards]) with idealized surge response functions (e.g., Irish et al. 2009 [Nat Hazards]) is used to quantify the present-day and future flood hazard under various sea level rise scenarios. Results are evaluated in terms of their impact on the flood statistics (a) when projected flood elevations are included directly in the JPM analysis (Figure 1) and (b) when represented as additional uncertainty within the JPM integral (Resio et al. 2013 [Nat Hazards]), i.e., as random error. Findings are expected to aid in determining the level of effort required to reasonably account for future landscape change in hazard assessments, namely in determining when such processes are sufficiently captured by added uncertainty and when sea level rise induced vegetation changes must be considered dynamically, via detailed modeling initiatives. Acknowledgements: This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. CMMI-1206271 and by the National Sea Grant College Program of the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and

  9. An intercomparison of tropical cyclone best-track products for the southwest Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magee, Andrew D.; Verdon-Kidd, Danielle C.; Kiem, Anthony S.

    2016-06-01

    Recent efforts to understand tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the southwest Pacific (SWP) have led to the development of numerous TC databases. The methods used to compile each database vary and are based on data from different meteorological centres, standalone TC databases and archived synoptic charts. Therefore the aims of this study are to (i) provide a spatio-temporal comparison of three TC best-track (BT) databases and explore any differences between them (and any associated implications) and (ii) investigate whether there are any spatial, temporal or statistical differences between pre-satellite (1945-1969), post-satellite (1970-2011) and post-geostationary satellite (1982-2011) era TC data given the changing observational technologies with time. To achieve this, we compare three best-track TC databases for the SWP region (0-35° S, 135° E-120° W) from 1945 to 2011: the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and the Southwest Pacific Enhanced Archive of Tropical Cyclones (SPEArTC). The results of this study suggest that SPEArTC is the most complete repository of TCs for the SWP region. In particular, we show that the SPEArTC database includes a number of additional TCs, not included in either the JTWC or IBTrACS database. These SPEArTC events do occur under environmental conditions conducive to tropical cyclogenesis (TC genesis), including anomalously negative 700 hPa vorticity (VORT), anomalously negative vertical shear of zonal winds (VSZW), anomalously negative 700 hPa geopotential height (GPH), cyclonic (absolute) 700 hPa winds and low values of absolute vertical wind shear (EVWS). Further, while changes in observational technologies from 1945 have undoubtedly improved our ability to detect and monitor TCs, we show that the number of TCs detected prior to the satellite era (1945-1969) are not statistically different to those in the post-satellite era (post-1970). Although data from

  10. Environmental Influences on the Intensity Changes of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shu, Shoujuan; Zhang, Fuqing; Wang, Yuan

    2015-04-01

    The influence of environmental conditions on the intensity changes of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) is investigated through examination of 37 TCs during 2000-2011 that interacted directly with the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH). Comprehensive composite analysis of the environmental conditions is performed for two stages of storms: one is categorized as intensifying events (maximum wind speed increases by 15 kts over 48 h) and the other is categorized as weakening events (maximum wind speed decreases by 15 kts over 48 h). Comparison of the composite analysis of these two cases show that environmental conditions associated with the WNPSH play important roles in the intensity changes of TCs over the WNP. When a TC moves along the southern periphery of the WNPSH, the relatively weaker easterly environmental vertical wind shear helps bring warm moist air from the south and southeast to its southeast quadrant within 500 km , which is favourable for the TC to intensify. On the other hand, when a TC moves along the western edge of the WNPSH, under the combined influences of the WNPSH and an upper-level westerly trough, a strong westerly vertical shear promotes the intrusion of dry environmental air associated with the WNPSH from the north and northwest, which may lead to the inhibition of moisture supply and convection over the west half of the TC and thus its weakening. These composite results are consistent with those with additonal geographic restrictions, suggesting that the dry air intrusion and the vertical wind shear (VWS) associated with the WNPSH, indeed affect the intensity changes of TCs over the WNP beyond the difference related solely to variations in geographical locations. The average sea surface temperature (SST) of 27.6° for the weakening events is also lower than an average of 28.9° for the strengthening events, but remains above the critical value of 27° for TC intensification, suggesting that the SST may

  11. Environmental influences on the intensity changes of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shu, Shoujuan; Zhang, Fuqing; Ming, Jie; Wang, Yuan

    2014-06-01

    The influence of environmental conditions on the intensity changes of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) is investigated through examination of 37 TCs during 2000-2011 that interacted directly with the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH). Comprehensive composite analysis of the environmental conditions is performed for two stages of storms: one is categorized as intensifying events (maximum wind speed increases by 15 kn over 48 h) and the other is categorized as weakening events (maximum wind speed decreases by 15 kn over 48 h). Comparison of the composite analysis of these two cases show that environmental conditions associated with the WNPSH play important roles in the intensity changes of TCs over the WNP. When a TC moves along the southern periphery of the WNPSH, the relatively weaker easterly environmental vertical wind shear helps bring warm moist air from the south and southeast to its southeast quadrant within 500 km, which is favorable for the TC to intensify. However, when a TC moves along the western edge of the WNPSH, under the combined influences of the WNPSH and an upper-level westerly trough, a strong westerly vertical shear promotes the intrusion of dry environmental air associated with the WNPSH from the north and northwest, which may lead to the inhibition of moisture supply and convection over the western half of the TC and thus its weakening. These composite results are consistent with those with additional geographic restrictions, suggesting that the dry air intrusion and the vertical wind shear (VWS) associated with the WNPSH, indeed affect the intensity changes of TCs over the WNP beyond the difference related solely to variations in geographical locations. The average sea surface temperature (SST) of 27.6 °C for the weakening events is also lower than an average of 28.9 °C for the strengthening events, but remains above the critical value of 27 °C for TC intensification, suggesting that the SST may be

  12. Contribution of tropical cyclones to the air-sea CO2 flux: A global view

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    LéVy, M.; Lengaigne, M.; Bopp, L.; Vincent, E. M.; Madec, G.; Ethé, C.; Kumar, D.; Sarma, V. V. S. S.

    2012-06-01

    Previous case studies have illustrated the strong local influence of tropical cyclones (TCs) on CO2 air-sea flux ? suggesting that they can significantly contribute to the global ? In this study, we use a state-of-the art global ocean biochemical model driven by TCs wind forcing derived from a historical TCs database, allowing to sample the ? response under 1663 TCs. Our results evidence a very weak contribution of TCs to global ? one or two order of magnitude smaller than previous estimates extrapolated from case studies. This result arises from several competing effects involved in the ? response to TCs, not accounted for in previous studies. While previous estimates have hypothesized the ocean to be systematically oversaturated in CO2 under TCs, our results reveal that a similar proportion of TCs occur over oversaturated regions (i.e. the North Atlantic, Northeast Pacific and the Arabian Sea) and undersaturated regions (i.e. Westernmost North Pacific, South Indian and Pacific Ocean). Consequently, by increasing the gas exchange coefficient, TCs can generate either instantaneous CO2 flux directed from the ocean to the atmosphere (efflux) or the opposite (influx), depending on the CO2 conditions at the time of the TC passage. A large portion of TCs also occurs over regions where the ocean and the atmosphere are in near equilibrium, resulting in very weak instantaneous fluxes. Previous estimates also did not account for any asynchronous effect of TCs on ? during several weeks after the storm, oceanic pCO2 is reduced in response to vertical mixing, which systematically causes an influx anomaly. This implies that, contrary to previous estimates, TCs weakly affect the CO2 efflux when they blow over supersaturated areas because the instantaneous storm wind effect and post-storm mixing effect oppose with each other. In contrast, TCs increase the CO2 influx in undersaturated conditions because the two effects add up. These compensating effects result in a very weak

  13. Analysis of CAPE in Intensifying Tropical Cyclones Simulated by CM1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Marguerite; Frisius, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    The transition of a tropical storm to a full blown hurricane (Typhoon) during intensification can be a source of great debate among many well respected scientists. As a result there is a lack of a comprehensive understanding of intensification. The present study aims to lessen some of the confusion by addressing the role of convective available potential energy (CAPE) in cyclogenesis. Previous work by others fail to include this due to assumptions that allow the intensification to occur under different conditions. A series of sensitivity tests were conducted using an idealised set up in the cloud resolving non-hydrostatic model CM1. A base state provided by a Dunion sounding was used with the vortex being initialised using the Rotunno and Emanuel's scheme and the Morrison double-moment cloud microphysical scheme was adopted. All experiments employed a 2km grid spacing with 600 grid points in the horizontal and 500m grid spacing with 59 grid points in the vertical. Two sets of sensitivity tests were done where the distribution of CAPE was investigated. In the first group the base state temperature was perturbed such that the atmosphere cooled and warmed at 0.5K/km and 1K/km in the vertical direction. In the second group the value for the exchange coefficient for enthalpy was increased and decreased by a factor of 2 and 4 for both cases. Since we are only interested in the rate of intensification most results were taken at the time when the rate of intensification was the highest. In the temperature perturbation experiments warming the atmosphere creates less than ideal conditions for cyclogenesis which results in no hurricane developing when the air was warmed by 1K/km and a very weak tropical cyclone developing when the air was warmed by 0.5K/km. As a result of this there is very little CAPE present in both cases. In contrast, cooling the air provides better conditions for cyclogenesis. The amount of CAPE is much greater when the air was cooled by 0.5K/km but the

  14. Evaluating preferred direction tropical cyclone track variability in an operational global ensemble prediction system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elless, Travis J.

    Ensemble forecasts of Tropical Storm Debby and Hurricane Sandy (2012) highlight instances where variability in tropical cyclone (TC) position forecasts are stretched along a preferred direction. The goal of this thesis is to analyze this stretching of variability in a global ensemble prediction system, particularly the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), to determine how often and under what conditions does variability stretching occur, and ultimately what feature(s) are responsible for generating this variability. This study defines and evaluates preferred direction variability through a 2008--2012 global climatology of ECMWF TC position variability. A basin by basin comparison found stretching of the variability tends to occur most frequently in the West Pacific and least frequently in the Atlantic. Other forecast characteristics such as location, motion, and intensity are examined in each basin, and highlight midlatitude effects being associated with preferred direction variability. However, other features unique to each basin could also be playing a role in generating preferred direction variability. Possible sources of preferred direction variability are examined through a case study of ECMWF ensemble forecast initialized at 0000 UTC 24 June 2012 for Tropical Storm Debby. Zonal magnitude differences in Debby's steering layer wind are identified as the source for generating the associated variability stretching. Further evaluation however, cannot relate these differences to one feature, suggesting multiple processes are in play in generating preferred direction variability.

  15. A weather analysis system for the Baja California peninsula: tropical cyclone season of 2007

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farfan, L. M.; Cosio, M. A.

    2008-05-01

    General characteristics of tropical weather systems were documented on a real-time basis. The geographical area of interest is the Baja California peninsula, located in northwestern Mexico. This study covers the warm season of 2007, from May through October, and includes observations derived from radar and satellite imagery as well as reports from a network of rain gauges. A set of graphical products were generated and they were available to the public through the internet. The analysis system has been in operation since the summer of 2005 and it is focused to document the development of tropical cyclones in eastern Pacific Ocean. During the season of 2007, this basin had a total of 11 tropical storms and four of them were within 800 km from the west coast of Mexico (Dalila, Ivo, Juliette and Kiko). Only one system made landfall in the area of interest: Hurricane Henriette which moved across Baja California, the Gulf of California and a portion of the state of Sonora. This presentation provides an overview of the graphical products along with lessons learned from the season studied, collaborations with local emergency managers and plans for the upcoming season of 2008.

  16. Influence of the Western Pacific teleconnection pattern on Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Ki-Seon; Moon, Il-Ju

    2012-09-01

    This study analyzes the characteristics of Western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) activity and large-scale environments according to the Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern in summer. In the positive WP phase, an anomalous cyclone and an anomalous anticyclone develop in the low and middle latitudes of the East Asia area, respectively. As a result, southeasterlies are reinforced in the northeast area of East Asia (including Korea and Japan), which facilitates the movement of TC to this area, whereas northwesterlies are reinforced in the southwest area of East Asia (including southern China and the Indochina Peninsula) which blocks the movement of TC to that area. Due to the spatial distribution of this reinforced pressure system, TCs that develop during the positive WP phase move and turn more to the northeast of the WNP than TCs which develop during the negative WP phase. The characteristics of this TC activity during the positive WP phase are associated with the upper tropospheric jet being located farther to the northeast. TCs during the negative WP phase mainly move to the west from the Philippines toward southern China and the Indochina Peninsula. Due to the terrain effect caused by the passage of TCs in mainland China, the intensity of TCs during the negative WP phase is weaker than those during the positive WP phase.

  17. Change of tropical cyclone activity by Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern in the western North Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Ki-Seon; Wu, Chun-Chieh; Cha, Eun-Jeong

    2010-10-01

    This study shows that the Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern has a significant influence on tropical cyclone (TC) activities over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the boreal summer (July, August, and September). During positive (negative) PJ phase, TCs form at a more northward (southward) location, recurve at a more northeastward (southwestward) location, and frequently pass over the northeast Asian (southeast Asian) region, including Korea and Japan (South China Sea and southern China). In particular, this difference in the TC track between the two phases is observed as a dipole-like pattern between the regions of Southeast and Northeast Asia. The TC characteristics during the positive PJ phase are caused by the following two stronger atmospheric circulations over the WNP: an anticyclonic circulation centered to the east of Japan and a cyclonic circulation centered to the east of Taiwan. The southeasterly between these two circulations serves as steering flow that TCs move northward toward Korea and Japan from the northeast of the Philippines. Conversely, TCs during the negative PJ phase mainly move westward toward the South China Sea and southern China by the easterly from a stronger anticyclonic circulation centered to the east of Taiwan. As a result of this feature of TC track during the negative PJ phase, TC lifetime is shorter and TC intensity is weaker.

  18. MISR CMVs and Multiangular Views of Tropical Cyclone Inner-Core Dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Dong L.; Diner, David J.; Garay, Michael J; Jovanovic, Veljko M.; Lee, Jae N.; Moroney, Catherine M.; Mueller, Kevin J.; Nelson, David L.

    2010-01-01

    Multi-camera stereo imaging of cloud features from the MISR (Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer) instrument on NASA's Terra satellite provides accurate and precise measurements of cloud top heights (CTH) and cloud motion vector (CMV) winds. MISR observes each cloudy scene from nine viewing angles (Nadir, +/-26(sup o), +/-46(sup o), +/-60(sup o), +/-70(sup o)) with approximatel 275-m pixel resolution. This paper provides an update on MISR CMV and CTH algorithm improvements, and explores a high-resolution retrieval of tangential winds inside the eyewall of tropical cyclones (TC). The MISR CMV and CTH retrievals from the updated algorithm are significantly improved in terms of spatial coverage and systematic errors. A new product, the 1.1-km cross-track wind, provides high accuracy and precision in measuring convective outflows. Preliminary results obtained from the 1.1-km tangential wind retrieval inside the TC eyewall show that the inner-core rotation is often faster near the eyewall, and this faster rotation appears to be related linearly to cyclone intensity.

  19. AMSU-A Tropical Cyclone Maximum Sustained Winds and Web Site

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spencer, Roy; Goodman, H. Michael (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU)-A instruments on the NOAA-15 and NOAA-16 satellites provide information on the warm cores of tropical cyclones from oxygen channel brightness temperature (Tb) measurements near 55 GHz. With appropriate assumptions, cyclone-scale Tb gradients can be directly related to middle-to-lower tropospheric height gradients. We have developed a method for diagnosis of maximum sustained winds (Vmax) from radially averaged Tb gradients in several of the AMSU channels. Calibration of the method with recon-based (or other in situ) winds results in better agreement than with Dvorak wind estimates. Gradient wind theory shows that the warm core Tb gradient signal increases non-linearly with wind speed, making microwave temperature sounders useful for diagnosing high wind speeds, but at the expense of a minimum useful detection limit of about 40 knots. It is found that accurate wind diagnoses depend upon (1) accounting for hydrometeor effects in the AMSU channels, and (2) maximizing signal-to-noise, since the 50 km resolution data cannot fully resolve the temperature gradients in the Vmax region, typically 10-20 km in scale. AMSU imagery and max diagnoses from specific hurricanes will be shown, including independent tests from the 2000 hurricane season.

  20. Impact of Megha-Tropiques SAPHIR radiance assimilation on the simulation of tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dhanya, M.; Gopalakrishnan, Deepak; Chandrasekar, Anantharaman; Singh, Sanjeev Kumar; Prasad, V. S.

    2016-05-01

    Impact of SAPHIR radiance assimilation on the simulation of tropical cyclones over Indian region has been investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Three cyclones that formed over Bay of Bengal have been considered in the present study. Assimilation methodology used here is the three dimensional variational (3DVar) scheme within the WRF model. With the initial and boundary conditions from Global Forecasting System (GFS) analyses from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a control run (CTRL) without assimilation of any data and a 3DVar run with the assimilation of SAPHIR radiance have been performed. Both model simulations have been compared with the observations from India Meteorological Department (IMD), Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM), and analysis fields from GFS. Detailed analysis reveals that, the SAPHIR radiance assimilation has led to significant improvement in the simulation of all the three cyclones in terms of cyclone track, intensity, accumulated rainfall. The simulation of warm core structure and relative vorticity profile of each cyclone by 3DVar run are found to be more closer to GFS analyses, when compared with the CTRL run.

  1. Saharan dust, lightning and tropical cyclones in the eastern tropical Atlantic during NAMMA-06

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jenkins, Gregory S.; Pratt, Aaron

    2008-06-01

    During the summer of 2006, the downstream component of African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses Campaign (NASA-AMMA (NAMMA)) examined African Easterly Waves (AEWs) emerging from the coast of Africa. Six of these disturbances went on to become named systems in the Tropical Atlantic. Two of the six systems (Tropical storm Debby and Hurricane Helene) developed in the extreme eastern Atlantic and were associated with dust outbreaks, elevated ice contents and frequent lightning. Here we show that in the early tropical cyclo-genesis stages of these systems there were thousands of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flashes as measured by a ground-lightning network. TRMM overpasses show high precipitation ice content above the freezing level and high latent heat release. Super-cooled water can be inferred in the lower parts of cloud systems in concert with observed high ice concentrations at high altitudes creating charge separation based on the large numbers of CG flashes.

  2. Effects of Surface Sensible Heat Fluxes on the Tropical Cyclone Intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Zhanhong; Fei, Jianfang

    2016-04-01

    The contributions of surface sensible heat fluxes (SHX) to the evolution of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and structure are examined in this study by conducting cloud-resolving simulations. Results suggest that although the peak values of SHX could account for nearly 30% of those of the total surface latent and sensible heat fluxes, the impact of SHX on TC intensification is nonetheless not distinct. However, the TC size shows great sensitivity to the SHX that the storm is shrunk by over 20% after removing the SHX. The reduced total surface enthalpy fluxes due to the removal of SHX do not necessarily result in weakened TCs, while the larger surface latent heat fluxes (LHX) basically correspond to stronger TCs. This suggests that the TC intensity is largely dependent on the LHX rather than the total surface enthalpy fluxes, although the latter is generally dominated by the former.

  3. Estimating tropical cyclone central pressure and outer winds from satellite microwave data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kidder, S. Q.; Gray, W. M.; Vonder Haar, T. H.

    1978-01-01

    A new technique is presented for estimating central pressure and surface winds outside of the radius of maximum winds from brightness temperatures measured by the SCAMS on Nimbus 6. The problem of estimating maximum surface winds is not treated because the spatial resolution of the radiometer is not high enough for this purpose. The technique is developed on the basis of measurements over eight typhoons and five hurricanes during 1975. It is shown that the warm 55.45-GHz brightness temperature anomaly previously observed over Typhoon June can be found over other tropical cyclones. Maximum brightness temperature anomaly correlates with central pressure with a correlation coefficient of -0.859. Outer surface wind speeds are calculated by assuming gradient balance and using the regression between brightness temperature anomaly and central pressure to estimate pressure gradients.

  4. Impact of subgrid-scale processes on eyewall replacement cycle of tropical cyclones in HWRF system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Ping; Zhu, Zhenduo; Gopalakrishnan, Sundararaman; Black, Robert; Marks, Frank D.; Tallapragada, Vijay; Zhang, Jun A.; Zhang, Xuejin; Gao, Cen

    2015-11-01

    Two idealized simulations by the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model are presented to examine the impact of model physics on the simulated eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). While no ERC is produced in the control simulation that uses the operational HWRF physics, the sensitivity experiment with different model physics generates an ERC that possesses key features of observed ERCs in real tropical cyclones. Likely reasons for the control simulation not producing ERC include lack of outer rainband convection at the far radii from the eyewall, excessive ice hydrometeors in the eyewall, and enhanced moat shallow convection, which all tend to prevent the formation of a persistent moat between the eyewall and outer rainband. Less evaporative cooling from precipitation in the outer rainband region in the control simulation produces a more stable and dryer environment that inhibits the development of systematic convection at the far radii from the eyewall.

  5. Marine climate influences on interannual variability of tropical cyclones in the eastern Caribbean: 1979-2008

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jury, Mark R.

    2015-04-01

    Interannual variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the eastern Caribbean is studied using MIT-Hurdat fields during the July-October season from 1979 to 2008. TC intensity shows local climate sensitivity particularly for upper ocean currents, salinity and mixed-layer depth, and 200-850 mb wind shear. Remote influences from the Southern Oscillation, Saharan dust, and the South American monsoon are also identified as important. Ocean currents diminish along the coast of South America, so interbasin transfer between the North Brazil and Caribbean Currents declines in seasons of frequent and intense TCs. This is related to a dipole pattern in the sea surface height formed mainly by reduced trade wind upwelling northeast of Venezuela. A low-salinity plume from the Orinoco River spreads across the eastern Caribbean. It is the weaker current